STUDY DESIGN: We conducted a prospective cohort study of 448 patients with 
spinal metastases from a variety of cancer groups.
OBJECTIVE: To determine the specific predictive value of the Tokuhashi scoring 
system (T12) and its revised version (T15) in spinal metastases of various 
primary tumors.
SUMMARY OF BACKGROUND DATA: The life expectancy of patients with spinal 
metastases is one of the most important factors in selecting the treatment 
modality. Tokuhashi et al formulated a prognostic scoring system with a total 
sum of 12 points for preoperative prediction of life expectancy in 1990 and 
revised it in 2005 to a total sum of 15 points. There is a lack of knowledge 
about the specific predictive value of those scoring systems in patients with 
spinal metastases from a variety of cancer groups.
METHODS: We included 448 patients with vertebral metastases who underwent 
surgical treatment during November 1992 to November 2009 in Aarhus University 
Hospital NBG. Data were retrieved from Aarhus Metastases Database. Scores based 
on T12 and T15 were calculated prospectively for each patient. We divided all 
the patients into different groups dictated by the site of their primary tumor. 
Predictive value and accuracy rate of the 2 scoring systems were compared in 
each cancer group.
RESULTS: Both the T12 and T15 scoring systems showed statistically significant 
predictive value when the 448 patients were analyzed in total (T12, P < 0.0001; 
T15, P < 0.0001). The accuracy rate was significantly higher in T15 (P < 0.0001) 
than in T12. The further analyses by primary cancer groups showed that the 
predictive value of T12 and T15 was primarily determined by the prostate (P = 
0.0003) and breast group (P = 0.0385). Only T12 displayed predictive value in 
the colon group (P = 0.0011). Neither of the scoring systems showed significant 
predictive value in the lung (P > 0.05), renal (P > 0.05), or miscellaneous 
primary tumor groups (P > 0.05). The accuracy rate of prognosis in T15 was 
significantly improved in the prostate (P = 0.0032) and breast group (P < 
0.0001).
CONCLUSION: Both T12 and T15 showed significant predictive value in patients 
with spinal metastases. T15 has a statistically higher accuracy rate than T12. 
Among the various cancer groups, the 2 scoring systems are especially reliable 
in prostate and breast metastases groups. T15 is recommended as superior to T12 
because of its higher accuracy rate.