fivethirthyeight--2020-07-20--Who’s Who In The NBA Bubble: The Teams Just Along For The Ride

Assuming nothing goes awry between now and then , professional basketball will return to our television screens soon .
The WNBA is set to begin its season on July 25 , while the NBA — the league whose abrupt shutdown set off a cascade of matching shutdowns in other sports — will restart its own season on July 30 at Walt Disney World .
As of today , it has been 131 days since the NBA last conducted a regular-season game , so you ’ d be forgiven for not necessarily recalling the particulars of where things left off .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ here .
Ahead of the resumption of the NBA season , we want to give you a brief refresher on the 22 teams that were invited to Orlando : who they are , where they were when we last saw them , whether they have sustained any confirmed or reported coronavirus cases , what else has changed for them during the four-plus-month hiatus , and what we can expect from them during both the seeding games and — if they ’ re lucky enough to make it there — the playoffs .
We @ @ @ @ @ @ @ into three tiers : the inner-circle contenders , the potential party-crashers and those that are seemingly along for the ride for no particular reason beyond the league wanting to maximize the number of games played ( and , thus , revenue earned ) .
We ’ ll begin below with that final group , which consists of the nine teams invited to the restart that have yet to secure postseason positioning .
The Suns face the toughest climb of any remaining team to actually make it to the playoffs .
They are six @ @ @ @ @ @ @ eighth-seeded Grizzlies , which means they need to pick up at least two games on Memphis and pass four other teams in the standings just to make it to a potential play-in round , where they ’ d need to win back-to-back games to claim a postseason berth .
They ’ ll have to make that run without the services of forward Kelly Oubre , who is in Orlando with the team but will not participate in the restart as he focuses on rehabbing from the torn meniscus he suffered in late February @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 3-5 against the seventh-toughest seeding-game schedule among teams invited to the restart , leaving them far short of securing a playoff berth .
San Antonio comes into the restart without either of its two starting big men .
LaMarcus Aldridge was shut down after having surgery on his right shoulder , while Trey Lyles underwent an appendectomy and was also declared out for the remainder of the season .
The Spurs were already facing long odds to make the playoffs , but they got even longer when Aldridge went down .
Their defense @ @ @ @ @ @ @ year , which means they were going to have to depend on outscoring teams .
This will be much more difficult to do without Aldridge , who propped up a unit that checked in only slightly above-average anyway .
In the absence of him and Lyles , San Antonio will likely have to play much smaller than it usually has this season , and veteran forward Rudy Gay recently indicated the team ’ s young players might see more a extended run during the seeding games .
The lone out-of-playoff-position team from the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Disney , the Wizards will be incredibly shorthanded in Orlando .
Pending free-agent sniper Dāvis Bertāns opted out of the restart , while All-Star guard Bradley Beal will sit out with a shoulder injury .
John Wall also remains sidelined , as he has been for the entire season .
The Wizards have to pick up 1.5 games on the Magic or two games on the Nets to qualify for a potential play-in round , but they face a tougher schedule than either of those two teams and will also be without their @ @ @ @ @ @ @ predict the Wiz to fall even further back from the pack than they are right now .
One of several teams that shut down their practice facility ahead of traveling to Orlando in the wake of a positive test for a member of their traveling party , the Kings have had more publicly confirmed COVID cases than any other team in the restart since leaguewide testing began in early July .
A few of those players have returned to practice , but star guard De ’ Aaron Fox sprained his ankle during one @ @ @ @ @ @ @ announced Wednesday evening that he would be reevaluated in seven to 10 days .
Their outlook appears bleak if Fox is not 100 percent , despite facing one of the league ’ s easiest remaining schedules .
Portland , more than any other team in the league , benefited from the season ’ s interruption .
When they return to the floor , the Blazers may be without Trevor Ariza , but they ’ ll get both Jusuf Nurkić and Zach Collins back .
The Blazers ’ preferred starters in the front court @ @ @ @ @ @ @ long-term injuries that had limited Collins to just three games and kept Nurkic out all year .
The boost to their roster and the question marks surrounding other No .
8-seed contenders would seemingly have the Blazers poised to make a run at the play-in round , but they have the misfortune of facing the fifth-toughest remaining schedule , with games against the Celtics , Rockets , Nuggets , Clippers and 76ers .
They do open against the Grizzlies and close against the severely shorthanded Nets , though , so perhaps their chances @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are being slightly underrated at just 12 percent .
FiveThirtyEight predictions : 36 % playoffs , < 1 % West , < 1 % Finals Projected seeding W-L : 3-5 ; 35-38 ( play-in participant vs. NOP ) COVID-19 : No public reports or announcements Before the season came to a screeching halt , the Grizzlies were this season ’ s most pleasant surprise .
Led by star rookie Ja Morant , the youngest team in the NBA managed to bounce back from a 6-16 start by amassing the league ’ s ninth-best @ @ @ @ @ @ @ it enters the restart with a sizable lead in the race for the No .
8 seed in the West .
However , despite the fact the Grizzlies will likely get Justise Winslow back on the floor now that his back injury has had time to heal , FiveThirtyEight is pessimistic about their chances of holding onto their spot .
While the Elo-specific forecast ( which is based mostly on this season ’ s performance , as well as some of last season ’ s ) gives the Grizzlies a 69 percent chance @ @ @ @ @ @ @ version of the forecast powered by RAPTOR player ratings pegs that chance at only 38 percent , instead favoring the next team on our list despite the fact that it needs to make up some ground or else win a play-in series .
Superstar rookie Zion Williamson left the bubble last week to deal with what the Pelicans described as an “ urgent family medical matter.
” He ’ s expected to rejoin the team at some point , and our projections have not yet been tweaked to account for his potential absence @ @ @ @ @ @ @ know how long said absence might be , or if he ’ ll return in time to take part in all eight seeding games .
Zion or no Zion , the Pelicans need to remain within four games of the Grizzlies ( while also holding off the Blazers , Spurs , Kings and Suns ) to force a play-in series .
The system currently favors the Pellies to grab the No .
8 seed from the Grizz ’ s clutches , the result of both New Orleans ’ strong roster ratings ( in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ) and a cupcake schedule that is the easiest of any team invited to Disney .
FiveThirtyEight predictions : 95 % playoffs , < 1 % East , < 1 % Finals Projected seeding W-L : 2-6 ; 32-40 ( 8th in East ) COVID-19 : Kevin Durant and three unnamed teammates ( announced ) , DeAndre Jordan ( out ) , Spencer Dinwiddie ( out ) , Taurean Prince ( out ) , Michael Beasley ( out ) The Nets will be practically unrecognizable in Orlando .
As you may have already @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ mutually agreed to part ways ” this year , with Atkinson being replaced by interim coach Jacque Vaughn .
Vaughn immediately inserted Jordan into the starting lineup ahead of Jarrett Allen , but Jordan tested positive for COVID-19 and so , along with his buddies Durant and Kyrie Irving , he will not be participating in the restart .
He ’ s not the only one .
Dinwiddie and Prince are also out of the lineup with positive coronavirus tests , while Wilson Chandler opted out of the restart because of concerns @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The Nets signed several substitute players to account for their various absences , but one of those players was Beasley , who later tested positive for COVID-19 and left the bubble .
Still , we expect Brooklyn will hang onto its playoff spot and narrowly avoid a play-in series against the Wizards .
The Magic have the benefit of participating in a restart held essentially in their own backyard .
They , like other banged-up teams , also had the time they needed for injuries to heal .
Specifically , Evan Fournier is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that sidelined him prior to the hiatus , giving the Magic back one of their top scorers .
Orlando ’ s restart schedule is significantly tougher than the one it would have faced down the stretch of the actual regular season , but it still ranks in the bottom third of remaining teams .
That , plus Brooklyn ’ s spate of absences , leads our predictions to believe the Magic will leapfrog the Nets for the No .
7 seed in the East , thus avoiding having to face the Bucks in @ @ @ @

Assuming nothing goes awry between now and then, professional basketball will return to our television screens soon. The WNBA is set to begin its season on July 25, while the NBA — the league whose abrupt shutdown set off a cascade of matching shutdowns in other sports — will restart its own season on July 30 at Walt Disney World.
As of today, it has been 131 days since the NBA last conducted a regular-season game, so you’d be forgiven for not necessarily recalling the particulars of where things left off. That’s why we’re here. Ahead of the resumption of the NBA season, we want to give you a brief refresher on the 22 teams that were invited to Orlando: who they are, where they were when we last saw them, whether they have sustained any confirmed or reported coronavirus cases, what else has changed for them during the four-plus-month hiatus, and what we can expect from them during both the seeding games and — if they’re lucky enough to make it there — the playoffs.
[Related: Our NBA Predictions]
We’re breaking these 22 teams down into three tiers: the inner-circle contenders, the potential party-crashers and those that are seemingly along for the ride for no particular reason beyond the league wanting to maximize the number of games played (and, thus, revenue earned). We’ll begin below with that final group, which consists of the nine teams invited to the restart that have yet to secure postseason positioning.
Phoenix Suns
26-39, 13th in West, 6 games back
FiveThirtyEight predictions: <1% playoffs, <1% West, <1% Finals
Projected seeding W-L: 3-5; 29-44
COVID-19: Two unnamed players (reported)
The Suns face the toughest climb of any remaining team to actually make it to the playoffs. They are six games and five spots back of the eighth-seeded Grizzlies, which means they need to pick up at least two games on Memphis and pass four other teams in the standings just to make it to a potential play-in round, where they’d need to win back-to-back games to claim a postseason berth. They’ll have to make that run without the services of forward Kelly Oubre, who is in Orlando with the team but will not participate in the restart as he focuses on rehabbing from the torn meniscus he suffered in late February. FiveThirtyEight projects the Suns will go 3-5 against the seventh-toughest seeding-game schedule among teams invited to the restart, leaving them far short of securing a playoff berth.
San Antonio Spurs
27-36, 12th in West, 4 games back
FiveThirtyEight predictions: <1% playoffs, <1% West, <1% Finals
Projected seeding W-L: 2-6; 29-42
COVID-19: No public reports or announcements
San Antonio comes into the restart without either of its two starting big men. LaMarcus Aldridge was shut down after having surgery on his right shoulder, while Trey Lyles underwent an appendectomy and was also declared out for the remainder of the season. The Spurs were already facing long odds to make the playoffs, but they got even longer when Aldridge went down. Their defense has not been up to snuff all year, which means they were going to have to depend on outscoring teams. This will be much more difficult to do without Aldridge, who propped up a unit that checked in only slightly above-average anyway. In the absence of him and Lyles, San Antonio will likely have to play much smaller than it usually has this season, and veteran forward Rudy Gay recently indicated the team’s young players might see more a extended run during the seeding games.
Washington Wizards
24-40, 9th in East, 5.5 games back
FiveThirtyEight predictions: 5% playoffs, <1% East, <1% Finals
Projected seeding W-L: 2-6; 26-46
COVID-19: Gary Payton Jr. (reported), Thomas Bryant (reported)
The lone out-of-playoff-position team from the East invited to make the trip to Disney, the Wizards will be incredibly shorthanded in Orlando. Pending free-agent sniper Dāvis Bertāns opted out of the restart, while All-Star guard Bradley Beal will sit out with a shoulder injury. John Wall also remains sidelined, as he has been for the entire season. The Wizards have to pick up 1.5 games on the Magic or two games on the Nets to qualify for a potential play-in round, but they face a tougher schedule than either of those two teams and will also be without their three best players. Accordingly, we predict the Wiz to fall even further back from the pack than they are right now.
Sacramento Kings
28-36, 11th in West, 3.5 games back
FiveThirtyEight predictions: 7% playoffs, <1% West, <1% Finals
Projected seeding W-L: 3-5; 31-41
COVID-19: Harrison Barnes (announced), Alex Len (reported), Buddy Hield (returned to practice), Jabari Parker (returned to practice)
One of several teams that shut down their practice facility ahead of traveling to Orlando in the wake of a positive test for a member of their traveling party, the Kings have had more publicly confirmed COVID cases than any other team in the restart since leaguewide testing began in early July. A few of those players have returned to practice, but star guard De’Aaron Fox sprained his ankle during one of those sessions, and the Kings announced Wednesday evening that he would be reevaluated in seven to 10 days. Their outlook appears bleak if Fox is not 100 percent, despite facing one of the league’s easiest remaining schedules.
Portland Trail Blazers
29-37, 9th in West, 3.5 games back
FiveThirtyEight predictions: 12% playoffs, <1% West, <1% Finals
Projected seeding W-L: 3-5; 32-42
COVID-19: No public reports or announcements
Portland, more than any other team in the league, benefited from the season’s interruption. When they return to the floor, the Blazers may be without Trevor Ariza, but they’ll get both Jusuf Nurkić and Zach Collins back. The Blazers’ preferred starters in the front court are each set to return from the long-term injuries that had limited Collins to just three games and kept Nurkic out all year. The boost to their roster and the question marks surrounding other No. 8-seed contenders would seemingly have the Blazers poised to make a run at the play-in round, but they have the misfortune of facing the fifth-toughest remaining schedule, with games against the Celtics, Rockets, Nuggets, Clippers and 76ers. They do open against the Grizzlies and close against the severely shorthanded Nets, though, so perhaps their chances of making it beyond the seeding games are being slightly underrated at just 12 percent.
Memphis Grizzlies
32-33, 8th in West
FiveThirtyEight predictions: 36% playoffs, <1% West, <1% Finals
Projected seeding W-L: 3-5; 35-38 (play-in participant vs. NOP)
COVID-19: No public reports or announcements
Before the season came to a screeching halt, the Grizzlies were this season’s most pleasant surprise. Led by star rookie Ja Morant, the youngest team in the NBA managed to bounce back from a 6-16 start by amassing the league’s ninth-best record from Dec. 8 on, and it enters the restart with a sizable lead in the race for the No. 8 seed in the West. However, despite the fact the Grizzlies will likely get Justise Winslow back on the floor now that his back injury has had time to heal, FiveThirtyEight is pessimistic about their chances of holding onto their spot. While the Elo-specific forecast (which is based mostly on this season’s performance, as well as some of last season’s) gives the Grizzlies a 69 percent chance of advancing to the postseason, the version of the forecast powered by RAPTOR player ratings pegs that chance at only 38 percent, instead favoring the next team on our list despite the fact that it needs to make up some ground or else win a play-in series.
New Orleans Pelicans
28-36, 10th in West, 3.5 games back
FiveThirtyEight predictions: 45% playoffs, <1% West, <1% Finals
Projected seeding W-L: 5-3; 33-39 (play-in participant vs. POR)
COVID-19: Three unnamed players (announced)
Superstar rookie Zion Williamson left the bubble last week to deal with what the Pelicans described as an “urgent family medical matter.” He’s expected to rejoin the team at some point, and our projections have not yet been tweaked to account for his potential absence — largely because we do not yet know how long said absence might be, or if he’ll return in time to take part in all eight seeding games. Zion or no Zion, the Pelicans need to remain within four games of the Grizzlies (while also holding off the Blazers, Spurs, Kings and Suns) to force a play-in series. The system currently favors the Pellies to grab the No. 8 seed from the Grizz’s clutches, the result of both New Orleans’ strong roster ratings (in which Williamson’s presence factors heavily) and a cupcake schedule that is the easiest of any team invited to Disney.
Brooklyn Nets
30-34, 7th in East
FiveThirtyEight predictions: 95% playoffs, <1% East, <1% Finals
Projected seeding W-L: 2-6; 32-40 (8th in East)
COVID-19: Kevin Durant and three unnamed teammates (announced), DeAndre Jordan (out), Spencer Dinwiddie (out), Taurean Prince (out), Michael Beasley (out)
The Nets will be practically unrecognizable in Orlando. As you may have already forgotten, Kenny Atkinson and the team “mutually agreed to part ways” this year, with Atkinson being replaced by interim coach Jacque Vaughn. Vaughn immediately inserted Jordan into the starting lineup ahead of Jarrett Allen, but Jordan tested positive for COVID-19 and so, along with his buddies Durant and Kyrie Irving, he will not be participating in the restart. He’s not the only one. Dinwiddie and Prince are also out of the lineup with positive coronavirus tests, while Wilson Chandler opted out of the restart because of concerns for his family’s health. The Nets signed several substitute players to account for their various absences, but one of those players was Beasley, who later tested positive for COVID-19 and left the bubble. Still, we expect Brooklyn will hang onto its playoff spot and narrowly avoid a play-in series against the Wizards.
Orlando Magic
30-35, 8th in East
FiveThirtyEight predictions: >99% playoffs, <1% East, <1% Finals
Projected Seeding W-L: 4-4; 34-39 (7th in East)
COVID-19: James Ennis (recovered)
The Magic have the benefit of participating in a restart held essentially in their own backyard. They, like other banged-up teams, also had the time they needed for injuries to heal. Specifically, Evan Fournier is expected to return from the elbow injury that sidelined him prior to the hiatus, giving the Magic back one of their top scorers. Orlando’s restart schedule is significantly tougher than the one it would have faced down the stretch of the actual regular season, but it still ranks in the bottom third of remaining teams. That, plus Brooklyn’s spate of absences, leads our predictions to believe the Magic will leapfrog the Nets for the No. 7 seed in the East, thus avoiding having to face the Bucks in the first round.
Subscribe to our sports podcast, Hot Takedown


fivethirthyeight--2020-07-21--Every Decision Is A Risk. Every Risk Is A Decision.

It has been a summer of compromises , a season of bending the rules .
If I wear a mask and I keep my distance , I can go for a walk with a friend .
Hand sanitizer is a bulwark that allows my kids to play on an otherwise empty jungle gym .
I believe the backyard has magical properties that will , probably , make it just safe enough to see people and talk to them .
In the sun and fresh breeze , we give each other air hugs from six-ish feet away .
Meanwhile , my @ @ @ @ @ @ @ clavicle .
When my friend , in some ways far more stringent on her social distancing and mask wearing than I am , told me about going in for her first cut since March , I winced involuntarily .
I assume it ’ s roughly the same face that she made when I confessed my masked trip to a clothing store to buy some summer dresses .
Both of us know the safest thing — the thing most likely to prevent the spread of COVID-19 — would be to stay at home , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ t do that now .
Can ’ t do it .
The idea of sticking with the safest thing has become almost as unthinkable as indulging in the danger of a movie in a theater or a drink at the bar .
But in between those extremes , life has become a sticky bog in which we wade through evidence and convenience , hoping we ’ re stepping on solid ground .
We can ’ t live like we did before coronavirus .
We won ’ t live like we did immediately @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , we ’ re in the muddy middle , faced with choices that seem at once crucial and impossible , simple and massively complicated .
These choices are an everyday occurrence , but they also carry a moral weight that makes them feel different than picking a pasta sauce or a pair of shoes .
In a pandemic that ’ s been filled with unanswerable questions and unwinnable wars , this is our daily Kobayashi Maru .
And no one can tell us exactly what we ought to do .
Not that there @ @ @ @ @ @ @ structure .
Right now , you can go online and find multiple charts that will visually categorize what were once the activities of daily life by risk level .
Some of these charts are evidence based , compiled by experts and ( in my opinion ) genuinely helpful .
I particularly liked the one designed by epidemiologist Saskia Popescu and bioethecist Ezekiel Emanuel because it lays out not just the risk levels of various behaviors — getting a haircut , visiting the dentist , buying a new shirt — but also the underlying @ @ @ @ @ @ @ or less risky .
In general , research has shown that indoors is riskier than outside , long visits riskier than short ones , crowds riskier than individuals — and , look , just avoid situations where you ’ re being sneezed , yelled , coughed or sung at .
But the trouble with the muddy middle is that a general idea of what is riskier isn ’ t the same thing as a clear delineation between right and wrong .
These charts — even the best ones — aren ’ t absolute @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the result of surveying experts .
In the case of Popescu ’ s chart , the risk categorizations were assigned based on discussions among herself , Emanuel and Dr. James P. Phillips , the chief of disaster medicine at George Washington University Emergency Medicine .
They each independently assigned a risk level to each activity , and then hashed out the ones on which they disagreed .
Take golf .
How safe is it to go out to the links ?
Initially , the three experts had different risk levels assigned to this @ @ @ @ @ @ @ assumptions about what a game of golf naturally involved , Popescu said .
“ Are people doing it alone ?
If not , how many people are in a cart ?
Are they wearing masks ?
Are they drinking ?
… .
those little variables that can increase the risk , ” she told me .
Golf isn ’ t just golf .
It ’ s how you golf that matters .
Those variables and assumptions aren ’ t trivial to calculating risk .
Nor are they static .
There ’ s different @ @ @ @ @ @ @ parts of the country , at different times .
For instance , how safe is it to eat outdoors with friends ?
Popescu ’ s chart ranks “ outdoor picnic or porch dining ” with people outside your household as low risk — a very validating categorization , personally .
But a chart produced by the Texas Medical Association , based on a survey of its 53,000 physician members , rates “ attending a backyard barbeque ” as a moderate risk , a 5 on a scale in which 9 is the stuff @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
When we first noticed this apparent contradiction at FiveThirtyEight , some of us joked about how maybe a Texas barbecue wasn ’ t the same thing as a picnic in New York or Minnesota .
Ha ha , everything ’ s bigger in Texas , even the guest list .
But , come to find out , yeah , that ’ s actually exactly the deal .
“ There ’ s not an ounce of social distancing .
And different sauce , ” said Mark Casanova , a Dallas palliative care specialist @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s COVID-19 task force , summing up what makes a Texas barbecue different .
When he rated a backyard barbecue , he was thinking of a crowded event , where people roam from indoors to out and back again , and masks are scarce .
When he was ranking risk , he was trying to think about real-world behavior , not necessarily the way to do each activity most safely .
“ It ’ s like going to a bar and saying , ‘ Well , I ’ ll just sit by @ @ @ @ @ @ @ like Popescu and Casanova have focused on harm reduction — the same philosophy that leads thousands of American gym teachers to demonstrate putting condoms on bananas .
We know , from basic understandings of human behavior , that people are going to do a thing ( have sex , that is , not put condoms on a banana ) .
So how can we help them be safer ?
But we ’ re used to safer sex — we ’ re not used to safer daily existence .
The muddy middle is frustrating @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ourselves in this type of quagmire before , but because the scale of the swamp is so vast and because , just yesterday , it was a garden .
We are faced with too many choices — not just what to do , but how to do it and when and where .
The stakes are high , 140,000 people are dead in the U.S. and death rates are starting to climb again .
And because of those stakes , we ’ ve assigned a morality to all these choices — something that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ frame things as “ all good ” or “ all bad ” and lose sight of the gray areas all around us .
We ’ re all bogged down and floundering , questioning our own goodness while we arch our eyebrows at our friends and argue over whose patch of muck is really solid ground .
In some ways , it would be easier to just not care , to be one of those people who see no difference among a park , a swamp and the rim of an active volcano , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is mentally living six months ago .
Then I could cheerfully traipse from my backyard to a neighbor ’ s driveway and then on to a dark corner booth somewhere with no worries .
No stress .
It would hardly even be a decision .
Maybe I could even get angry about stores and cities setting up rules and see something like a mask requirement as a violation of my freedoms .
Then I could be oblivious to the far more terrible freedom of the muddy middle — where everything is a choice @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to make and to live with .

It has been a summer of compromises, a season of bending the rules. If I wear a mask and I keep my distance, I can go for a walk with a friend. Hand sanitizer is a bulwark that allows my kids to play on an otherwise empty jungle gym. I believe the backyard has magical properties that will, probably, make it just safe enough to see people and talk to them. In the sun and fresh breeze, we give each other air hugs from six-ish feet away.
Meanwhile, my hair grows, untrimmed, past my clavicle. When my friend, in some ways far more stringent on her social distancing and mask wearing than I am, told me about going in for her first cut since March, I winced involuntarily. I assume it’s roughly the same face that she made when I confessed my masked trip to a clothing store to buy some summer dresses. Both of us know the safest thing — the thing most likely to prevent the spread of COVID-19 — would be to stay at home, alone. But we know we won’t do that now. Can’t do it. The idea of sticking with the safest thing has become almost as unthinkable as indulging in the danger of a movie in a theater or a drink at the bar. But in between those extremes, life has become a sticky bog in which we wade through evidence and convenience, hoping we’re stepping on solid ground.
[Related: Where The Latest COVID-19 Models Think We’re Headed — And Why They Disagree]
We can’t live like we did before coronavirus. We won’t live like we did immediately after it appeared, either. Instead, we’re in the muddy middle, faced with choices that seem at once crucial and impossible, simple and massively complicated. These choices are an everyday occurrence, but they also carry a moral weight that makes them feel different than picking a pasta sauce or a pair of shoes. In a pandemic that’s been filled with unanswerable questions and unwinnable wars, this is our daily Kobayashi Maru. And no one can tell us exactly what we ought to do.
Not that there haven’t been attempts at providing structure.
Right now, you can go online and find multiple charts that will visually categorize what were once the activities of daily life by risk level. Some of these charts are evidence based, compiled by experts and (in my opinion) genuinely helpful. I particularly liked the one designed by epidemiologist Saskia Popescu and bioethecist Ezekiel Emanuel because it lays out not just the risk levels of various behaviors — getting a haircut, visiting the dentist, buying a new shirt — but also the underlying factors that can make an activity more or less risky. In general, research has shown that indoors is riskier than outside, long visits riskier than short ones, crowds riskier than individuals — and, look, just avoid situations where you’re being sneezed, yelled, coughed or sung at.
But the trouble with the muddy middle is that a general idea of what is riskier isn’t the same thing as a clear delineation between right and wrong. These charts — even the best ones — aren’t absolute arbiters of safety: They’re the result of surveying experts. In the case of Popescu’s chart, the risk categorizations were assigned based on discussions among herself, Emanuel and Dr. James P. Phillips, the chief of disaster medicine at George Washington University Emergency Medicine. They each independently assigned a risk level to each activity, and then hashed out the ones on which they disagreed.
Take golf. How safe is it to go out to the links? Initially, the three experts had different risk levels assigned to this activity because they were all making different assumptions about what a game of golf naturally involved, Popescu said. “Are people doing it alone? If not, how many people are in a cart? Are they wearing masks? Are they drinking? …. those little variables that can increase the risk,” she told me.
Golf isn’t just golf. It’s how you golf that matters.
Subscribe to our coronavirus podcast, PODCAST-19
Those variables and assumptions aren’t trivial to calculating risk. Nor are they static. There’s different muck under your boggy feet in different parts of the country, at different times. For instance, how safe is it to eat outdoors with friends? Popescu’s chart ranks “outdoor picnic or porch dining” with people outside your household as low risk — a very validating categorization, personally. But a chart produced by the Texas Medical Association, based on a survey of its 53,000 physician members, rates “attending a backyard barbeque” as a moderate risk, a 5 on a scale in which 9 is the stuff most of us have no problem eschewing.
When we first noticed this apparent contradiction at FiveThirtyEight, some of us joked about how maybe a Texas barbecue wasn’t the same thing as a picnic in New York or Minnesota. Ha ha, everything’s bigger in Texas, even the guest list. But, come to find out, yeah, that’s actually exactly the deal.
[Related: How To Make Indoor Air Safer]
“There’s not an ounce of social distancing. And different sauce,” said Mark Casanova, a Dallas palliative care specialist and member of the Texas Medical Association’s COVID-19 task force, summing up what makes a Texas barbecue different. When he rated a backyard barbecue, he was thinking of a crowded event, where people roam from indoors to out and back again, and masks are scarce. When he was ranking risk, he was trying to think about real-world behavior, not necessarily the way to do each activity most safely. “It’s like going to a bar and saying, ‘Well, I’ll just sit by myself.’” Casanova said.
Experts like Popescu and Casanova have focused on harm reduction — the same philosophy that leads thousands of American gym teachers to demonstrate putting condoms on bananas. We know, from basic understandings of human behavior, that people are going to do a thing (have sex, that is, not put condoms on a banana). So how can we help them be safer?
But we’re used to safer sex — we’re not used to safer daily existence. The muddy middle is frustrating not because we’ve never found ourselves in this type of quagmire before, but because the scale of the swamp is so vast and because, just yesterday, it was a garden.
[Related: Why It Took So Long For Politicians To Treat The Child Care Crisis As A Crisis]
We are faced with too many choices — not just what to do, but how to do it and when and where. The stakes are high, 140,000 people are dead in the U.S. and death rates are starting to climb again. And because of those stakes, we’ve assigned a morality to all these choices — something that psychology researchers have shown leads us to frame things as “all good” or “all bad” and lose sight of the gray areas all around us. We’re all bogged down and floundering, questioning our own goodness while we arch our eyebrows at our friends and argue over whose patch of muck is really solid ground.
In some ways, it would be easier to just not care, to be one of those people who see no difference among a park, a swamp and the rim of an active volcano, to be one of those people who is mentally living six months ago. Then I could cheerfully traipse from my backyard to a neighbor’s driveway and then on to a dark corner booth somewhere with no worries. No stress. It would hardly even be a decision. Maybe I could even get angry about stores and cities setting up rules and see something like a mask requirement as a violation of my freedoms. Then I could be oblivious to the far more terrible freedom of the muddy middle — where everything is a choice, and they’re all mine to make and to live with.


fivethirthyeight--2020-07-21--At Long Last, Baseball’s (Almost) Back

At Long Last, Baseball’s (Almost) Back

We start with our preview of the 2020 MLB season .
However abbreviated , and however shaky the runup , baseball is back !
And it looks … pretty similar to how we thought it would look .
Our model favors the Houston Astros and the New York Yankees in the American League ( with Sara ’ s beloved Minnesota Twins close behind ) , and the Los Angeles Dodgers and the Washington Nationals lead the National League .
While we ’ ve lost the luxury of a long season , in which a single game doesn ’ t matter @ @ @ @ @ @ @ by how close the race for the playoffs might be all the way to the end .
At least on paper , the Dodgers are the favorites , with a 20 percent chance to win the World Series , and we ’ re all excited to see what kind of a difference Mookie Betts will make for them .
But the potential for something wild to happen is also high , and it would only take a string of eight or nine wins to boost a team that looks bad now into playoff @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Mets ’ chances , though , so at least we still have some constants .
Next , we welcome FiveThirtyEight contributor Bria Felicien to take us through the highs and lows of the National Women ’ s Soccer League Challenge Cup .
The quarterfinals of the tournament saw a number of upsets , including the absolutely loaded North Carolina Courage being denied by the Portland Thorns and their stacked bench of incredible goalies .
In fact , the goalkeepers have really been the stars of the tournament , with keepers like Kailen Sheridan @ @ @ @ @ @ @ pace with the USWNT ’ s starter , Alyssa Naeher .
Now that the Courage have been eliminated , Bria is just rooting for some goals and some drama .
But the success of the Challenge Cup — not to mention the just-announced addition of a Los Angeles-based team — pretty much ensures that the league will serve up more of both .
Finally , FiveThirtyEight senior visual journalist Anna Wiederkehr joins to explore the wild world of Fastest Known Time trail running — which is exactly what it sounds like .
Big @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 2020 , which helps explain the explosion in runners trying to clock the fastest known time traversing everything from the Appalachian Trail to the road through Central Park .
There ’ s a staggering amount of logistics and planning — and potentially water purification — involved in trying to record an FKT , but it ’ s proved to be a great way for endurance athletes to stay fit during the pandemic .
What we ’ re looking at this week : • Our predictions for the strange , new and yet oddly @ @ @ @ @ @ @ spirit behind the Houston Dash , one of the most exciting teams in the NWSL Challenge Cup .
• What is driving endurance athletes into the woods ?

We start with our preview of the 2020 MLB season. However abbreviated, and however shaky the runup, baseball is back! And it looks … pretty similar to how we thought it would look. Our model favors the Houston Astros and the New York Yankees in the American League (with Sara’s beloved Minnesota Twins close behind), and the Los Angeles Dodgers and the Washington Nationals lead the National League. While we’ve lost the luxury of a long season, in which a single game doesn’t matter quite so much, we are excited by how close the race for the playoffs might be all the way to the end. At least on paper, the Dodgers are the favorites, with a 20 percent chance to win the World Series, and we’re all excited to see what kind of a difference Mookie Betts will make for them. But the potential for something wild to happen is also high, and it would only take a string of eight or nine wins to boost a team that looks bad now into playoff contention. Everyone remains skeptical of the Mets’ chances, though, so at least we still have some constants.
Next, we welcome FiveThirtyEight contributor Bria Felicien to take us through the highs and lows of the National Women’s Soccer League Challenge Cup. The quarterfinals of the tournament saw a number of upsets, including the absolutely loaded North Carolina Courage being denied by the Portland Thorns and their stacked bench of incredible goalies. In fact, the goalkeepers have really been the stars of the tournament, with keepers like Kailen Sheridan, Jane Campbell and Britt Eckerstrom keeping pace with the USWNT’s starter, Alyssa Naeher. Now that the Courage have been eliminated, Bria is just rooting for some goals and some drama. But the success of the Challenge Cup — not to mention the just-announced addition of a Los Angeles-based team — pretty much ensures that the league will serve up more of both.
Finally, FiveThirtyEight senior visual journalist Anna Wiederkehr joins to explore the wild world of Fastest Known Time trail running — which is exactly what it sounds like. Big city races are off the cards for 2020, which helps explain the explosion in runners trying to clock the fastest known time traversing everything from the Appalachian Trail to the road through Central Park. There’s a staggering amount of logistics and planning — and potentially water purification — involved in trying to record an FKT, but it’s proved to be a great way for endurance athletes to stay fit during the pandemic.
What we’re looking at this week:


fivethirthyeight--2020-07-21--We’re Looking For A Podcast Producer For PODCAST-19

FiveThirtyEight is seeking a part-time producer for our coronavirus podcast , PODCAST-19 .
As a part of our team , you would work 20-25 hours per week and help guide the show to new heights .
We ’ re looking for an audio journalist who has a background in science and health journalism to help us edit and produce the show every week .
You ’ ll help us brainstorm topics , reach out to sources and make editorial choices about how to best frame and present the issues at hand .
And you ’ ll also be responsible for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ cuts where appropriate and stitching the interviews together with our scoring .
We strive to do original reporting on the podcast to help differentiate it from the competition , and we ’ re eager to find someone who is either used to reporting stories of their own or helping others shape theirs .
The production schedule is tight — the podcast goes out every week on Friday morning .
You ’ ll be working with our host , Anna Rothschild , and our executive producer , Chadwick Matlin , to make it all @ @ @ @ @ @ @ someone with : • Fluency in the audio-editing software of your choice , ideally Pro Tools or Hindenburg .
• A deep understanding of the pandemic as a news story , and an ability to track scientific news about the pandemic as it is released .
• A background in booking guests — we ’ ll be asking you to find sources , decide which sources are the best ones to speak to and prep for those interviews .
The job can be done remotely , regardless of the status of the pandemic @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , please apply !
Send a cover letter with thoughts on the podcast and a resume to chadwick dot matlin at fivethirtyeight dot com .

FiveThirtyEight is seeking a part-time producer for our coronavirus podcast, PODCAST-19. As a part of our team, you would work 20-25 hours per week and help guide the show to new heights.
We’re looking for an audio journalist who has a background in science and health journalism to help us edit and produce the show every week. You’ll help us brainstorm topics, reach out to sources and make editorial choices about how to best frame and present the issues at hand. And you’ll also be responsible for editing the show every week, making cuts where appropriate and stitching the interviews together with our scoring.
We strive to do original reporting on the podcast to help differentiate it from the competition, and we’re eager to find someone who is either used to reporting stories of their own or helping others shape theirs. The production schedule is tight — the podcast goes out every week on Friday morning. You’ll be working with our host, Anna Rothschild, and our executive producer, Chadwick Matlin, to make it all happen.
We’re looking for someone with:
Fluency in the audio-editing software of your choice, ideally Pro Tools or Hindenburg.
A deep understanding of the pandemic as a news story, and an ability to track scientific news about the pandemic as it is released.
Experience reporting or producing science journalism.
The skill that’s an added bonus:
A background in booking guests — we’ll be asking you to find sources, decide which sources are the best ones to speak to and prep for those interviews.
The job can be done remotely, regardless of the status of the pandemic.
If any of that sounds appealing, please apply! Send a cover letter with thoughts on the podcast and a resume to chadwick dot matlin at fivethirtyeight dot com.


fivethirthyeight--2020-07-21--Economists Think Congress Should Keep Paying Unemployed Workers $600 A Week — Or Even More

Congress is back in session , and it has a weighty task before it — figuring out what to do about the economy as COVID-19 infections spike across the country and states roll back their reopenings .
One central point of tension : the $ 600-per-week supplemental unemployment insurance benefit that was enacted in March as part of the CARES Act and is set to expire on July 31 .
Democrats have proposed extending the payment until jobless rates in states fall below a certain threshold .
Republicans , meanwhile , are leery of continuing the full payments , saying @ @ @ @ @ @ @ work .
And it ’ s true that research has shown that many workers are making more money on the beefed-up benefits than they would be at their old jobs .
But in the latest installment of our regular survey of quantitative macroeconomic economists , conducted in partnership with the Initiative on Global Markets at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business , the 33 economists in our study collectively thought there was a 59 percent chance that either keeping the payment steady or increasing it to above $ 600 per week @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
They said there was about a 33 percent chance that reducing the weekly payment to less than $ 600 would most benefit the economy , and only a 7 percent chance that letting the program completely lapse would be most beneficial .
This makes sense considering that another recent IGM survey found that most economists blamed high unemployment on companies that weren ’ t hiring — not on people choosing not to work because of unemployment payments .
Jonathan Wright , an economics professor at Johns Hopkins University who has been consulting @ @ @ @ @ @ @ survey , pointed out that some extension of unemployment insurance is important because many workers are still out of a job .
States can continue to offer benefits regardless of what the federal government does , but those don ’ t last forever , either — and some states are less generous than others .
Of course , the perspectives on Congress ’ s response are nuanced , and many of the economists think the benefits should ideally be phased out as the economy improves , assuming there are no logistical hurdles .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ ways that federal policymakers could aid jobless workers , the experts thought there was a 37 percent chance that the best strategy would be to continue paying jobless workers $ 600 weekly for now but peg federal unemployment benefits to key economic indicators so they become gradually less generous as the economy improves .
They said there was a 26 percent chance it would benefit the economy more if the workers were paid less than $ 600 per week for a fixed period of time , and a 22 percent probability that it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ workers $ 600 a week even if it meant some would make more than they did while working .
Deborah Lucas , an economist at MIT , said she would opt for temporarily leaving the weekly payment at $ 600 , or even increasing it a bit , although she said the payments should ramp down if the economy improved enough .
“ The fact that a considerable number of people are making more this way than when they were working seems like a good thing , ” she said , adding that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ earners , who might otherwise feel pressure to take jobs that would endanger their health .
“ In effect , it enhances social insurance protections and is a step towards universal basic income , both policies I think would improve social welfare even in the absence of a pandemic.
” Not all of the economists were a fan of expanding or maintaining the $ 600 weekly payment , though .
Annette Vissing-Jørgensen , an economist at the University of California , Berkeley , said it was fundamentally unfair that some essential workers were @ @ @ @ @ @ @ were out of a job .
She added that while she ’ s concerned overall about making it more financially attractive for workers to stay home from their jobs , particularly if hiring starts to pick up again , there “ could be a role for continuing some level of extra benefits ” in states that are less generous .
Others noted that while the extra payment made sense as a short-term stimulus measure , economists might approach the long-term consequences of such a generous supplement differently .
Still , it was notable @ @ @ @ @ @ @ question above was an alternative to the $ 600-per-week payment that ’ s been floated by some Republicans , who have proposed a “ back to work bonus ” for people who return to their jobs instead of continuing to supplement workers ’ unemployment benefits .
Economists thought there was only a 16 percent chance this would do the most to benefit the economy .
“ Continued unemployment support has the twin benefits of alleviating poverty for jobless workers and sustaining consumer demand in the economy , ” said Allan Timmermann , professor @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of California , San Diego .
Timmermann has also been consulting with us on the survey .
“ [ It ] is viewed as a highly effective tool to prevent the economy from stalling.
” Along similar lines , we asked economists how they would allocate $ 1 trillion in a hypothetical COVID-19 stimulus package if they wanted to do the most good for the entire economy ( with the assumption that the health crisis itself would be addressed with a separate bill ) .
The economists ranked their top three priorities and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ No .
1 responses .
But though that benefit was in the top three of priorities for a majority of the experts , at 67 percent , it didn ’ t see the highest share of overall top-three responses .
By that measure , the clear priority according to economists was funding state and local governments — which is consistent with a previous survey in which they thought one of the most likely causes of economic disaster would be an unwillingness to bail out those governments .
In this week ’ s survey @ @ @ @ @ @ @ should be among lawmakers ’ top three priorities , and 36 percent said it should be No .
1 .
“ State and local is going to be a huge drag on the economy because they are a sizable share of spending , can not really run much in the way of deficits , their tax revenue is badly hit and Congress has done little to help so far , ” Wright said .
So cushioning states and localities could do a lot to support the economy , he said .
Other areas @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the economists ’ top three priorities were funding for small businesses ( 48 percent ) and public K-12 schools ( 45 percent ) and another round of individual stimulus checks ( 36 percent ) .
None of our economists , however , thought funding either large corporations or colleges and other institutions of higher learning was a priority .
In addition to our usual questions about gross domestic product in the second and fourth quarters , we asked the economists to forecast third-quarter real GDP growth in this installment of the survey .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ how much the prospect of a true “ second wave ” of coronavirus in the winter could slow down economic growth .
On average , economists thought real GDP in the second quarter of 2020 — which ended June 30 , with an advance GDP estimate set to be released later this month — declined by an annualized rate of 27 percent compared with the first quarter .
They also thought real GDP would grow by about 8 percentage points quarter-over-quarter in the third quarter , with an upper-bound estimate of 17 percent @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
But their forecasts looked bleaker for the fourth quarter , with a median forecast of 3 percent growth , a 90th-percentile forecast of 9 percent and a 10th-percentile forecast in the red again ( at -3 percent ) — all more pessimistic than in the third quarter .
Some of that reflects the increased economic activity of the summer ( relative to the early spring ) , even with the virus circulating around the country ; the likelihood of some kind of third-quarter bounce back was high , given how bad economists @ @ @ @ @ @ @ But the forecast also speaks to the uncertain course that the virus — and therefore , the economy — might take over the rest of 2020 .
Robert Barbera , an economist at Johns Hopkins University , said part of the problem in forecasting quarterly shifts is that month-to-month change can be so extreme .
His forecast for the third quarter was less optimistic because he expected most of the initial bounce back to happen in May and June , which are both part of the second quarter .
The third quarter might @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and look quite a bit better than the second quarter , he said , but that ’ s partially because the second quarter was so bad .
Predicting the fourth quarter is even more difficult — in part because a bounce back in the economy is so dependent on Americans ’ willingness to resume ordinary life .
However the course of the recession plays out , our economists think America could be due for a massive wave of personal bankruptcies in the second half of the year .
During the first half of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ vast majority of which were by individuals — were actually down 23 percent relative to the first half of 2019 , according to court data from Epiq AACER .
But don ’ t be fooled : That was almost certainly because of the heavy use of grace periods and extensions by creditors , which will eventually expire ( if they haven ’ t already ) .
In our survey , 67 percent of economists thought total filings would increase significantly in the second half of 2020 relative to the second half of 2019 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ see the same kind of year-over-year decrease in the second half of 2020 that they saw in the first half .
Taken as a whole , the economic picture painted by this week ’ s survey is no brighter than in previous installments .
The panel ’ s predictions for future GDP have scarcely budged over the past two weeks , and the experts remain wary that whatever gains the economy is making over the summer could be wiped out by the virus before year ’ s end .
But they also clearly @ @ @ @ @ @ @ its disposal to avoid making the recovery harder than it needs to be .
The big question is — will policymakers use them ?

Congress is back in session, and it has a weighty task before it — figuring out what to do about the economy as COVID-19 infections spike across the country and states roll back their reopenings. One central point of tension: the $600-per-week supplemental unemployment insurance benefit that was enacted in March as part of the CARES Act and is set to expire on July 31.
Democrats have proposed extending the payment until jobless rates in states fall below a certain threshold. Republicans, meanwhile, are leery of continuing the full payments, saying they will discourage people from returning to work. And it’s true that research has shown that many workers are making more money on the beefed-up benefits than they would be at their old jobs.
But in the latest installment of our regular survey of quantitative macroeconomic economists, conducted in partnership with the Initiative on Global Markets at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business, the 33 economists in our study collectively thought there was a 59 percent chance that either keeping the payment steady or increasing it to above $600 per week would be most beneficial to the economy. They said there was about a 33 percent chance that reducing the weekly payment to less than $600 would most benefit the economy, and only a 7 percent chance that letting the program completely lapse would be most beneficial. This makes sense considering that another recent IGM survey found that most economists blamed high unemployment on companies that weren’t hiring — not on people choosing not to work because of unemployment payments.
Jonathan Wright, an economics professor at Johns Hopkins University who has been consulting with FiveThirtyEight on the design of the survey, pointed out that some extension of unemployment insurance is important because many workers are still out of a job. States can continue to offer benefits regardless of what the federal government does, but those don’t last forever, either — and some states are less generous than others.
How should Congress handle unemployment insurance? Likelihood that each federal policy choice would most benefit the entire economy over the rest of 2020, according to economists Option Probability Keep the weekly payment at $600 37% Reduce the weekly payment to less than $600 33 Increase the weekly payment to more than $600 22 Allow federal pandemic unemployment insurance to completely lapse 7 The survey of 33 economists was conducted July 17-20. Source: FIVETHIRTYEIGHT/IGM COVID-19 ECONOMIC SURVEY
Of course, the perspectives on Congress’s response are nuanced, and many of the economists think the benefits should ideally be phased out as the economy improves, assuming there are no logistical hurdles. When we drilled into some of the ways that federal policymakers could aid jobless workers, the experts thought there was a 37 percent chance that the best strategy would be to continue paying jobless workers $600 weekly for now but peg federal unemployment benefits to key economic indicators so they become gradually less generous as the economy improves. They said there was a 26 percent chance it would benefit the economy more if the workers were paid less than $600 per week for a fixed period of time, and a 22 percent probability that it would be better to continue paying jobless workers $600 a week even if it meant some would make more than they did while working.
Deborah Lucas, an economist at MIT, said she would opt for temporarily leaving the weekly payment at $600, or even increasing it a bit, although she said the payments should ramp down if the economy improved enough. “The fact that a considerable number of people are making more this way than when they were working seems like a good thing,” she said, adding that this will only be true for low earners, who might otherwise feel pressure to take jobs that would endanger their health. “In effect, it enhances social insurance protections and is a step towards universal basic income, both policies I think would improve social welfare even in the absence of a pandemic.”
[Related: Where The Latest COVID-19 Models Think We’re Headed — And Why They Disagree]
Not all of the economists were a fan of expanding or maintaining the $600 weekly payment, though. Annette Vissing-Jørgensen, an economist at the University of California, Berkeley, said it was fundamentally unfair that some essential workers were making less money than nonessential workers who were out of a job. She added that while she’s concerned overall about making it more financially attractive for workers to stay home from their jobs, particularly if hiring starts to pick up again, there “could be a role for continuing some level of extra benefits” in states that are less generous. Others noted that while the extra payment made sense as a short-term stimulus measure, economists might approach the long-term consequences of such a generous supplement differently.
Still, it was notable that the least popular response to the question above was an alternative to the $600-per-week payment that’s been floated by some Republicans, who have proposed a “back to work bonus” for people who return to their jobs instead of continuing to supplement workers’ unemployment benefits. Economists thought there was only a 16 percent chance this would do the most to benefit the economy.
“Continued unemployment support has the twin benefits of alleviating poverty for jobless workers and sustaining consumer demand in the economy,” said Allan Timmermann, professor of finance and economics at the University of California, San Diego. Timmermann has also been consulting with us on the survey. “[It] is viewed as a highly effective tool to prevent the economy from stalling.”
Along similar lines, we asked economists how they would allocate $1 trillion in a hypothetical COVID-19 stimulus package if they wanted to do the most good for the entire economy (with the assumption that the health crisis itself would be addressed with a separate bill). The economists ranked their top three priorities and gave unemployment insurance the highest share of No. 1 responses. But though that benefit was in the top three of priorities for a majority of the experts, at 67 percent, it didn’t see the highest share of overall top-three responses. By that measure, the clear priority according to economists was funding state and local governments — which is consistent with a previous survey in which they thought one of the most likely causes of economic disaster would be an unwillingness to bail out those governments. In this week’s survey, 85 percent of respondents thought that should be among lawmakers’ top three priorities, and 36 percent said it should be No. 1.
What should be the priorities of a federal stimulus? Priorities for a hypothetical federal stimulus package in order to have the greatest overall economic benefit, ranked by economists Share of economists who ranked it as priority … Category No. 1 No. 2 No. 3 In Top 3 State and local governments 36% 21% 27% 85% Jobless workers (via unemployment insurance) 39 15 12 67 Small businesses 6 21 21 48 Public K-12 schools 12 15 18 45 Individuals (via stimulus checks) 3 21 12 36 Health care institutions 0 6 9 15 Other 3 0 0 3 Higher education 0 0 0 0 Large corporations 0 0 0 0 The survey of 33 economists was conducted July 17-20. Source: FIVETHIRTYEIGHT/IGM COVID-19 ECONOMIC SURVEY
“State and local is going to be a huge drag on the economy because they are a sizable share of spending, cannot really run much in the way of deficits, their tax revenue is badly hit and Congress has done little to help so far,” Wright said. So cushioning states and localities could do a lot to support the economy, he said.
Other areas of focus that frequently came up among the economists’ top three priorities were funding for small businesses (48 percent) and public K-12 schools (45 percent) and another round of individual stimulus checks (36 percent). None of our economists, however, thought funding either large corporations or colleges and other institutions of higher learning was a priority.
In addition to our usual questions about gross domestic product in the second and fourth quarters, we asked the economists to forecast third-quarter real GDP growth in this installment of the survey. The results shed some light on just how much the prospect of a true “second wave” of coronavirus in the winter could slow down economic growth.
On average, economists thought real GDP in the second quarter of 2020 — which ended June 30, with an advance GDP estimate set to be released later this month — declined by an annualized rate of 27 percent compared with the first quarter. They also thought real GDP would grow by about 8 percentage points quarter-over-quarter in the third quarter, with an upper-bound estimate of 17 percent and little chance of negative growth again. But their forecasts looked bleaker for the fourth quarter, with a median forecast of 3 percent growth, a 90th-percentile forecast of 9 percent and a 10th-percentile forecast in the red again (at -3 percent) — all more pessimistic than in the third quarter.
Some of that reflects the increased economic activity of the summer (relative to the early spring), even with the virus circulating around the country; the likelihood of some kind of third-quarter bounce back was high, given how bad economists think second-quarter GDP will end up. But the forecast also speaks to the uncertain course that the virus — and therefore, the economy — might take over the rest of 2020.
[Related: How Americans View The Coronavirus Crisis And Trump’s Response]
Robert Barbera, an economist at Johns Hopkins University, said part of the problem in forecasting quarterly shifts is that month-to-month change can be so extreme. His forecast for the third quarter was less optimistic because he expected most of the initial bounce back to happen in May and June, which are both part of the second quarter. The third quarter might see an uptick in August and September and look quite a bit better than the second quarter, he said, but that’s partially because the second quarter was so bad. Predicting the fourth quarter is even more difficult — in part because a bounce back in the economy is so dependent on Americans’ willingness to resume ordinary life.
However the course of the recession plays out, our economists think America could be due for a massive wave of personal bankruptcies in the second half of the year. During the first half of 2020, total bankruptcy filings — the vast majority of which were by individuals — were actually down 23 percent relative to the first half of 2019, according to court data from Epiq AACER. But don’t be fooled: That was almost certainly because of the heavy use of grace periods and extensions by creditors, which will eventually expire (if they haven’t already). In our survey, 67 percent of economists thought total filings would increase significantly in the second half of 2020 relative to the second half of 2019; only 6 percent thought they would see the same kind of year-over-year decrease in the second half of 2020 that they saw in the first half.
Taken as a whole, the economic picture painted by this week’s survey is no brighter than in previous installments. The panel’s predictions for future GDP have scarcely budged over the past two weeks, and the experts remain wary that whatever gains the economy is making over the summer could be wiped out by the virus before year’s end. But they also clearly think Congress has a few tools at its disposal to avoid making the recovery harder than it needs to be. The big question is — will policymakers use them?
Subscribe to our coronavirus podcast, PODCAST-19


fivethirthyeight--2020-07-21--Baseball Will Be Weird This Year. But The Astros And Yankees Are Favorites In The American League …

When Major League Baseball finally starts its 2020 season on July 23 , it will be a very different kind of campaign than any we ’ ve seen in our lifetimes .
Not only will it be much shorter than usual ( 60 games per team instead of 162 ) and feature a strange mix of division and interleague matchups , but it comes against the backdrop of a pandemic that continues to ravage the nation , which has caused players to question the wisdom of playing — or opt out of the season entirely .
And yet , MLB @ @ @ @ @ @ @ predictions .
To help make sense of the favorites and dark horses in this strange mini-season , we plugged the shortened schedule into our forecast model and simulated it 100,000 times , tracking each team ’ s expected record and its odds of winning the division or the World Series .
Here ’ s what our model thinks of the 2020 American League : Last year ’ s AL East was supposed to see a tight race between the defending champs in Boston and their bitterest of rivals in the Bronx .
Instead @ @ @ @ @ @ @ rash of injuries to pull away for the division crown in the second half — and our model thinks the Bombers are clear East favorites again in 2020 .
New York added ace Gerrit Cole via free agency , which shores up a rotation that ranked just 16th in total wins above replacement , but an even bigger factor might be improved health for a club that saw players spend 3,192 total days on the injured list in 2019 — 36 percent more than any other team .
If Aaron Judge , Giancarlo @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and Miguel Andujar can stay intact over the short schedule , the Yankees will be a major championship threat .
The Tampa Bay Rays gave New York a good fight early last season and were also a thorn in the Houston Astros ’ side during the postseason .
Maybe we should stop being surprised when they sneak up on much more expensive contenders every year !
Losing Tommy Pham will hurt some in 2020 , but this remains one of the best and most balanced teams in MLB ( particularly if ace Blake @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ) .
We think they ’ ll be nearly as good as the Yankees , with a 56 percent shot at the playoffs .
[ Related : 60 Games Aren ’ t Enough To Crown The Best MLB Team .
But Neither Are 162 Games . ]
That ’ s better than our outlook for the Boston Red Sox , who had a terrible championship hangover last year and figure to take another step backward after firing manager Alex Cora in January , trading star right fielder Mookie Betts in February and watching @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in March .
Boston still has plenty of top-end talent ( Xander Bogaerts , Rafael Devers , J.D .
Martinez ) but also enough flaws that a run at the Yankees and Rays looks unlikely .
And the Red Sox could have competition from behind in the form of the Toronto Blue Jays , whose young core of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. , Cavan Biggio and Bo Bichette should keep pushing the team ’ s rebuild forward .
After acquiring Hyun-Jin Ryu , Tanner Roark and Chase Anderson to improve what was a bottom-five @ @ @ @ @ @ @ be surprised if Toronto makes a run at .500 .
Finally , the Baltimore Orioles should bring up the rear for a fourth straight season .
With Jonathan Villar and Dylan Bundy now gone , the biggest question might be whether they ’ ll crack 20 wins in 60 games against the toughest schedule in baseball — we project them at just 21 wins for the season , the fewest of any team .
The Minnesota Twins were one of baseball ’ s best stories in 2019 , winning the AL Central as @ @ @ @ @ @ @ home run record in the process .
Can they do it again ?
Well , we won ’ t know about the home run part without more information about how “ juiced ” the 2020 ball is .
But in terms of division odds , Minnesota is still the favorite , if by a somewhat slim margin .
The Twins didn ’ t rest on their offseason laurels , adding the likes of Josh Donaldson , Kenta Maeda and Homer Bailey without losing too much of note .
But they will also probably @ @ @ @ @ @ @ healthy season that saw their record improve by a whopping 23 games .
The question will be how well the offseason activity — and 2020 ’ s easiest schedule — helps counterbalance that regression .
Fighting to reclaim their old spot atop the division will be the Cleveland Indians , who let the Central slip away after three straight first-place finishes .
The 2019 Indians weren ’ t bad , but they weren ’ t the elite club they ’ d been just a few years earlier ; despite a star-filled lineup , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ average and never mounted a big charge after briefly catching the Twins in August .
Our model thinks the Tribe still has a 34 percent shot at the division crown , despite losing World Series-era mainstays Corey Kluber , Jason Kipnis and Danny Salazar over the offseason , but the window might be closing on the Francisco Lindor era soon .
The Chicago White Sox are a hot breakout pick heading into 2020 , primarily because all the young talent they ’ ve accumulated over the years has finally arrived .
Third baseman @ @ @ @ @ @ @ big leaps last season , while left fielder Eloy Jiménez and maybe even highly touted Cuban prospect Luis Robert seem poised to do the same this year .
Add in offseason additions Yasmani Grandal and Edwin Encarnacion , and the Pale Hose should improve a lot on their .447 winning percentage from a season ago , even if it might not translate to a playoff berth quite yet .
As for the Kansas City Royals and Detroit Tigers , both clubs figure to be deep in rebuilding mode yet again this year .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ Ivan Nova , Cameron Maybin , Jonathan Schoop , C.J .
Cron , Austin Romine — that could lead to greater respectability this year .
( Then again , it would have been hard to be less respectable than the 2019 Tigers were . )
For their part , the Royals mostly treaded water .
But our forecast thinks both teams should avoid challenging the Orioles for the mantle of MLB ’ s worst team , which is a welcome improvement from 2019 , even if true contention is still far off in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ?
Sure , a lot of more important things have happened in the country since it was revealed that Houston engaged in a systematic sign-stealing scheme that left their 2017 title tainted , their manager and GM fired and the entire baseball world vowing revenge .
But the Astros ’ scandal hasn ’ t gone anywhere — and neither have the Astros themselves .
Houston is still MLB ’ s third-most talented team according to our Elo ratings , headlined by the usual suspects : Justin Verlander , Alex Bregman , George Springer @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Michael Brantley , Zack Greinke , etc.
, etc .
They also have a steady hand at the helm in veteran manager Dusty Baker .
Although the Astros probably had the roughest offseason of any team ( maybe ever ? )
, losing Cole and several other key contributors on top of the cheating fallout , we give them a 77 percent chance of returning to the postseason , a 59 percent chance of winning the AL West and a 14 percent World Series probability — tied with the Yankees for the second-best @ @ @ @ @ @ @ does take a step back , the Oakland Athletics are right there waiting in the wings .
Oakland won 97 games for the second straight season in 2019 on the strength of superstar performances from Marcus Semien and Matt Chapman — the rare pair of 7+ WAR teammates in MLB history — the solid play of Matt Olson , and unheralded contributions from the likes of Mark Canha , Ramon Laureano and Liam Hendrix .
All of those guys will return for 2020 , and while Brett Anderson , Bailey and Roark departed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that includes starters Jesus Luzardo and A.J .
Puk and catcher Sean Murphy should help the A ’ s once again vie for a playoff appearance .
Coming up behind them , the Los Angeles Angels are one of 2020 ’ s most intriguing teams .
We all know about Mike Trout , but the offseason additions of ex-Cubs manager Joe Maddon , third baseman Anthony Rendon — perhaps Trout ’ s best-ever teammate — and pitchers Bundy and Julio Teheran , plus Shohei Ohtani ’ s return to two-way play , give @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Health permitting for some , obviously . )
We still give the Halos just a 24 percent chance at the postseason , in part because they ’ ll face MLB ’ s ninth-hardest schedule , but they do have the talent to potentially make some noise .
Speaking of which , the Texas Rangers are another team capable of making the contenders work for every victory .
Last year , the club won 78 games under new manager Chris Woodward and hung around the playoff race for a half-season , despite one of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ missing 92 games .
Then Texas spent the offseason adding a few potentially useful names — Corey Kluber , Robinson Chirinos , Todd Frazier , etc .
— to help christen a new ballpark .
Of course , the 2019 Rangers also got very lucky , both in terms of beating their underlying stats and getting unexpectedly great years from 30-something starters Mike Minor and Lance Lynn .
We rank them fourth in the division , though they are an interesting fourth at least .
And the Seattle Mariners are projected for last @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ended up last season after cooling from an inexplicably red-hot start .
Seattle has suffered from tremendously bad luck in its MLB-leading 18-year playoff drought , but our model gives that streak little chance of ending anytime soon .
The joy and ( mostly ) tragedy of Seattle baseball was well-documented by SB Nation ’ s Jon Bois and Alex Rubenstein in their excellent six-part video series this year about the team ’ s history ; it will probably end up being the highlight of 2020 for the Mariners and their fans .

Baseball Will Be Weird This Year. But The Astros And Yankees Are Favorites In The American League … Again.
When Major League Baseball finally starts its 2020 season on July 23, it will be a very different kind of campaign than any we’ve seen in our lifetimes. Not only will it be much shorter than usual (60 games per team instead of 162) and feature a strange mix of division and interleague matchups, but it comes against the backdrop of a pandemic that continues to ravage the nation, which has caused players to question the wisdom of playing — or opt out of the season entirely.
And yet, MLB is back — and so are our predictions. To help make sense of the favorites and dark horses in this strange mini-season, we plugged the shortened schedule into our forecast model and simulated it 100,000 times, tracking each team’s expected record and its odds of winning the division or the World Series. Here’s what our model thinks of the 2020 American League:
How Elo is forecasting the AL East race Avg. Simulated Season Chance to… Team Elo Rating Wins Losses Run Diff. Make Playoffs Win Division Win World Series Yankees 1571 36 24 +58 78% 56% 14% Rays 1539 33 27 +31 56 28 5 Red Sox 1511 30 30 +4 29 12 1 Blue Jays 1479 27 33 -22 13 4 <1 Orioles 1412 21 39 -85 <1 <1 <1 Based on 100,000 simulations of the 2020 MLB season. Sources: Baseball prospectus, Fangraphs, Clay Davenport
Last year’s AL East was supposed to see a tight race between the defending champs in Boston and their bitterest of rivals in the Bronx. Instead, the New York Yankees overcame a rash of injuries to pull away for the division crown in the second half — and our model thinks the Bombers are clear East favorites again in 2020. New York added ace Gerrit Cole via free agency, which shores up a rotation that ranked just 16th in total wins above replacement, but an even bigger factor might be improved health for a club that saw players spend 3,192 total days on the injured list in 2019 — 36 percent more than any other team. If Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Gary Sanchez, Aaron Hicks and Miguel Andujar can stay intact over the short schedule, the Yankees will be a major championship threat.
The Tampa Bay Rays gave New York a good fight early last season and were also a thorn in the Houston Astros’ side during the postseason. Maybe we should stop being surprised when they sneak up on much more expensive contenders every year! Losing Tommy Pham will hurt some in 2020, but this remains one of the best and most balanced teams in MLB (particularly if ace Blake Snell bounces back to his 2018 form). We think they’ll be nearly as good as the Yankees, with a 56 percent shot at the playoffs.
[Related: 60 Games Aren’t Enough To Crown The Best MLB Team. But Neither Are 162 Games.]
That’s better than our outlook for the Boston Red Sox, who had a terrible championship hangover last year and figure to take another step backward after firing manager Alex Cora in January, trading star right fielder Mookie Betts in February and watching ace Chris Sale undergo Tommy John surgery in March. Boston still has plenty of top-end talent (Xander Bogaerts, Rafael Devers, J.D. Martinez) but also enough flaws that a run at the Yankees and Rays looks unlikely.
And the Red Sox could have competition from behind in the form of the Toronto Blue Jays, whose young core of Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Cavan Biggio and Bo Bichette should keep pushing the team’s rebuild forward. After acquiring Hyun-Jin Ryu, Tanner Roark and Chase Anderson to improve what was a bottom-five rotation by WAR, don’t be surprised if Toronto makes a run at .500.
Finally, the Baltimore Orioles should bring up the rear for a fourth straight season. With Jonathan Villar and Dylan Bundy now gone, the biggest question might be whether they’ll crack 20 wins in 60 games against the toughest schedule in baseball — we project them at just 21 wins for the season, the fewest of any team.
How Elo is forecasting the AL Central race Avg. Simulated Season Chance to… Team Elo Rating Wins Losses Run Diff. Make Playoffs Win Division Win World Series Twins 1544 35 25 +42 67% 48% 7% Indians 1529 33 27 +29 55 34 4 White Sox 1496 30 30 +1 28 14 <1 Royals 1448 25 35 -43 5 2 <1 Tigers 1436 24 36 -53 3 1 <1 Based on 100,000 simulations of the 2020 MLB season. Sources: Baseball prospectus, Fangraphs, Clay Davenport
The Minnesota Twins were one of baseball’s best stories in 2019, winning the AL Central as preseason underdogs and breaking the all-time single-season home run record in the process. Can they do it again? Well, we won’t know about the home run part without more information about how “juiced” the 2020 ball is. But in terms of division odds, Minnesota is still the favorite, if by a somewhat slim margin. The Twins didn’t rest on their offseason laurels, adding the likes of Josh Donaldson, Kenta Maeda and Homer Bailey without losing too much of note. But they will also probably regress to the mean after an unusually healthy season that saw their record improve by a whopping 23 games. The question will be how well the offseason activity — and 2020’s easiest schedule — helps counterbalance that regression.
Fighting to reclaim their old spot atop the division will be the Cleveland Indians, who let the Central slip away after three straight first-place finishes. The 2019 Indians weren’t bad, but they weren’t the elite club they’d been just a few years earlier; despite a star-filled lineup, they scored fewer runs than the AL average and never mounted a big charge after briefly catching the Twins in August. Our model thinks the Tribe still has a 34 percent shot at the division crown, despite losing World Series-era mainstays Corey Kluber, Jason Kipnis and Danny Salazar over the offseason, but the window might be closing on the Francisco Lindor era soon.
[Related: Our 2020 MLB Predictions]
The Chicago White Sox are a hot breakout pick heading into 2020, primarily because all the young talent they’ve accumulated over the years has finally arrived. Third baseman Yoan Moncada and starter Lucas Giolito took big leaps last season, while left fielder Eloy Jiménez and maybe even highly touted Cuban prospect Luis Robert seem poised to do the same this year. Add in offseason additions Yasmani Grandal and Edwin Encarnacion, and the Pale Hose should improve a lot on their .447 winning percentage from a season ago, even if it might not translate to a playoff berth quite yet.
As for the Kansas City Royals and Detroit Tigers, both clubs figure to be deep in rebuilding mode yet again this year. Detroit actually made some offseason additions — Ivan Nova, Cameron Maybin, Jonathan Schoop, C.J. Cron, Austin Romine — that could lead to greater respectability this year. (Then again, it would have been hard to be less respectable than the 2019 Tigers were.) For their part, the Royals mostly treaded water. But our forecast thinks both teams should avoid challenging the Orioles for the mantle of MLB’s worst team, which is a welcome improvement from 2019, even if true contention is still far off in the future.
How Elo is forecasting the AL West race Avg. Simulated Season Chance to… Team Elo Rating Wins Losses Run Diff. Make Playoffs Win Division Win World Series Astros 1570 36 24 +55 77% 59% 14% Athletics 1527 32 28 +19 44 22 3 Angels 1503 29 31 -5 24 11 1 Rangers 1484 28 32 -18 16 6 <1 Mariners 1446 24 36 -53 3 1 <1 Based on 100,000 simulations of the 2020 MLB season. Sources: Baseball prospectus, Fangraphs, Clay Davenport
Remember the Houston Astros? Sure, a lot of more important things have happened in the country since it was revealed that Houston engaged in a systematic sign-stealing scheme that left their 2017 title tainted, their manager and GM fired and the entire baseball world vowing revenge. But the Astros’ scandal hasn’t gone anywhere — and neither have the Astros themselves. Houston is still MLB’s third-most talented team according to our Elo ratings, headlined by the usual suspects: Justin Verlander, Alex Bregman, George Springer, Jose Altuve, Yordan Alvarez, Michael Brantley, Zack Greinke, etc., etc. They also have a steady hand at the helm in veteran manager Dusty Baker. Although the Astros probably had the roughest offseason of any team (maybe ever?), losing Cole and several other key contributors on top of the cheating fallout, we give them a 77 percent chance of returning to the postseason, a 59 percent chance of winning the AL West and a 14 percent World Series probability — tied with the Yankees for the second-best of any team.
But if Houston does take a step back, the Oakland Athletics are right there waiting in the wings. Oakland won 97 games for the second straight season in 2019 on the strength of superstar performances from Marcus Semien and Matt Chapman — the rare pair of 7+ WAR teammates in MLB history — the solid play of Matt Olson, and unheralded contributions from the likes of Mark Canha, Ramon Laureano and Liam Hendrix. All of those guys will return for 2020, and while Brett Anderson, Bailey and Roark departed in the offseason, a talent pipeline that includes starters Jesus Luzardo and A.J. Puk and catcher Sean Murphy should help the A’s once again vie for a playoff appearance.
[Related: How Our MLB Predictions Work]
Coming up behind them, the Los Angeles Angels are one of 2020’s most intriguing teams. We all know about Mike Trout, but the offseason additions of ex-Cubs manager Joe Maddon, third baseman Anthony Rendon — perhaps Trout’s best-ever teammate — and pitchers Bundy and Julio Teheran, plus Shohei Ohtani’s return to two-way play, give Los Angeles plenty of upside. (Health permitting for some, obviously.) We still give the Halos just a 24 percent chance at the postseason, in part because they’ll face MLB’s ninth-hardest schedule, but they do have the talent to potentially make some noise.
Speaking of which, the Texas Rangers are another team capable of making the contenders work for every victory. Last year, the club won 78 games under new manager Chris Woodward and hung around the playoff race for a half-season, despite one of its best players (Joey Gallo) missing 92 games. Then Texas spent the offseason adding a few potentially useful names — Corey Kluber, Robinson Chirinos, Todd Frazier, etc. — to help christen a new ballpark. Of course, the 2019 Rangers also got very lucky, both in terms of beating their underlying stats and getting unexpectedly great years from 30-something starters Mike Minor and Lance Lynn. We rank them fourth in the division, though they are an interesting fourth at least.
And the Seattle Mariners are projected for last place, which is also where they ended up last season after cooling from an inexplicably red-hot start. Seattle has suffered from tremendously bad luck in its MLB-leading 18-year playoff drought, but our model gives that streak little chance of ending anytime soon. The joy and (mostly) tragedy of Seattle baseball was well-documented by SB Nation’s Jon Bois and Alex Rubenstein in their excellent six-part video series this year about the team’s history; it will probably end up being the highlight of 2020 for the Mariners and their fans.
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2020 MLB Predictions

How this works : Elo ratings are a measure of team strength based on head-to-head results , margin of victory @ @ @ @ @ We ’ re using an Elo-based system that also accounts for starting pitchers , travel @ @ @ @ @ an average team rating of about 1500 .
This forecast is based on 100,000 simulations @ @ @ @ @ after each game .
Read more » Download data .
For historical team ratings , @ @ @ @ @ MLB .

How this works: Elo ratings are a measure of team strength based on head-to-head results, margin of victory and quality of opponent. We’re using an Elo-based system that also accounts for starting pitchers, travel distance and rest, with an average team rating of about 1500. This forecast is based on 100,000 simulations of the season and updates after each game. Read more »
Download data. For historical team ratings, see the Complete History Of MLB.


fivethirthyeight--2020-07-21--Secret Trump Voters Didn’t Decide 2016 And Probably Won’t Swing 2020

A recent poll showed that the majority of Pennsylvanians think people in their community secretly support President Trump .
In @ @ @ @ @ Politics podcast , the crew explains why that is unlikely .
They also consider the @ @ @ @ @ leaders of the civil rights movement — like Rep. John Lewis — die or leave @ @

A recent poll showed that the majority of Pennsylvanians think people in their community secretly support President Trump. In this week’s FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the crew explains why that is unlikely. They also consider the future of politics as Black leaders of the civil rights movement — like Rep. John Lewis — die or leave office.