fivethirthyeight--2020-10-28--We Have A Lot Of New Polls, But There’s Little Sign Of The Presidential Race Tightening

Let ’ s dive right in .
Following our rules from my colleague Geoffrey Skelley ’ s post earlier this week , we ’ re going to look at every poll where at least half of the survey took place after last week ’ s debate , with a comparison to the most recent pre-debate survey by the same firm .
If the pollster hasn ’ t surveyed a state before , we ’ ll make the comparison based on what the FiveThirtyEight polling average said in that state as of the night of the debate ( Oct. 22 ) @ @ @ @ @ @ @ set a cutoff for polls as of 7 p.m. Eastern on Wednesday .
( More will probably have filtered into the averages by the time that you ’ re reading this . )
We ’ ll rotate through the four major regions of the country — the South , the West , the Midwest and the Northeast .
But first , here are the post-debate national polls : On average , Biden leads by 9 percentage points using a simple average of post-debate national polls , which matches his 9-point lead in our @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s a bit of a weird mix of polls , though , with more quantity than quality .
The only two fully live-caller national polls in here are from CNN and CNBC/Hart Research/Public Opinion Strategies , which show Biden leading by 12 points and 11 points , respectively .
On the one hand , the trendlines aren ’ t so bad for Trump in those live-caller polls .
He trailed by 16 points in CNN ’ s previous national poll and by 9 points in the past Hart Research/Public Opinion Strategies poll @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to compare it to the prior NBC/Wall Street Journal national poll , which uses the same polling team ) .
On the other hand , the higher-quality national polls are showing worse results for Trump than the lower-quality polls , which is rarely a good sign .
More highly rated online firms — such as YouGov , Morning Consult and Ipsos — show Trump trailing by margins ranging from 9 to 12 points .
At least some of the fluctuations in our national polling average seem to reflect shifts in the ratio of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ go through cycles , and recently the higher-quality firms have mostly been concentrating on state polling .
Most of them will release their final national polls soon , though , and it wouldn ’ t be surprising if , following CNN and CNBC ’ s example , a few more of them show double-digit leads for Biden .
Something else to note : Although there ’ s been a slight decline in Biden ’ s national polls since the debate , a majority of state polls show his position improving .
To be @ @ @ @ @ @ @ percentage points in the average state poll since the debate , while he ’ s lost 0.5 points in the average national poll .
That brings the national and state polls into better alignment after a period where national polls suggested that Biden led by 10 to 11 points but state polls were more consistent with a lead of about 9 points instead .
Let ’ s start our review of the regions with the South , where there ’ s been a lot of polling over the past couple of days : @ @ @ @ @ @ @ coherent story here because every state in the region seems to be marching to its own fight song .
Biden ’ s gotten some great numbers in Georgia since the debate , but he ’ s had some terrible ones in Florida .
North Carolina is somewhere in between , with polls variously suggesting that he ’ s gaining or losing ground .
Do I buy that there are these microfluctations between neighboring states ?
I ’ m not sure that I do , particularly since you have a different mix of pollsters @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Georgia could use one or two more high-quality polls .
For the time being , though , Biden ’ s small lead in our Georgia polling average ( +1.4 ) nearly equals his lead in Florida ( also +1.4 ) and North Carolina ( +2.1 ) .
That means Georgia needs to be taken seriously as a plausible — if unlikely — tipping-point state .
It ’ s going to be the focus of a lot of resource expenditures over the final few days of the campaign , especially since it also has @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a step or two away from the rest of the Southern group , meanwhile , as Trump leads in our polling average by 1.8 points there .
Next up on our whirlwind tour of America … the West : This is a decent set of polls for Biden , including in Arizona , where Biden ’ s lead has oscillated between 3 and 5 points in our polling average for most of the year .
It ’ s in the lower-to-mid part of that range now , at 3.5 points in our official @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of post-debate Arizona polls is slightly better for him at +4.2 .
I realize this might seem like splitting hairs , but Arizona is an important state for Biden , insofar as it ’ s probably his best backup option if he loses Pennsylvania .
( If Biden loses Pennsylvania but wins Arizona , Michigan and Wisconsin , he ’ d also need to find one more electoral vote somewhere to break a 269-269 Electoral College tie , but he ’ d probably get that in Nebraska ’ s 2nd Congressional District , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ In a world where Arizona is polling at Biden +5 , it ’ s really almost as though he has a Plan A1 ( Pennsylvania ) and Plan A2 ( Arizona plus NE-2 ) .
That would make his map more robust .
In a world where Arizona is Biden +2 or Biden +3 , conversely , it doesn ’ t really stand out from his other backup options , such as North Carolina and Florida , so it would be as though Biden has one Plan A ( Pennsylvania ) and a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the Midwest : FiveThirtyEight ’ s Nathaniel Rakich covered this region this morning , so I ’ ll be brief here .
This is the one part of the country where you can ’ t really say the race is steady ; instead , this has been a strong set of polling for Biden , and he ’ s gained an average of 1.7 points in surveys in this region versus the pre-debate polls .
No , Trump probably doesn ’ t trail in Wisconsin by 17 points , as he does in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Good pollsters publish their outliers instead of sitting on them , and sometimes they turn out not to be outliers at all . )
But average the ABC News poll with the three other post-debate polls of Wisconsin , and Biden is still ahead by 10.5 points there .
Biden ’ s polling gains may reflect that the COVID-19 outbreak in the Upper Midwest is bad right now , especially in Wisconsin .
There is some evidence that the polls tend to shift against Trump following spikes in COVID-19 cases in a state @ @ @ @ @ @ @ as COVID-19 cases are also now rising sharply in many other states .
By the Northeast , as you can see from the chart above , I really just mean … Pennsylvania , plus one stray poll of Maine .
This region has been underpolled .
There haven ’ t been any live-caller polls of Pennsylvania since the debate , and the online and IVR polls show highly disparate results there .
New Hampshire has had no post-debate polling at all , meanwhile .
We go back and forth here at FiveThirtyEight about @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Northeast or the Midwest .
I ’ ve usually been a proponent of the theory that for political purposes , Pennsylvania behaves like a Midwestern state .
There are some important geographic , demographic and cultural differences between Pennsylvania and the Upper Midwest , however , and this year , the polling in Pennsylvania hasn ’ t tracked the numbers in Wisconsin and Michigan that well .
Pennsylvania is also not currently experiencing as bad of a COVID-19 outbreak as those other states .
So it may be less correlated with them than @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , the final round of high-quality , live-caller polls in Pennsylvania is likely to make a big difference to our model .
Pennsylvania is by far the most likely tipping-point state .
If Biden gets up to , say , a 6- or 7-point lead there , he ’ ll be in a much safer position overall in the Electoral College than if he gets knocked down to a 4-point lead here instead .
More polling of the Keystone State is surely to come soon .

We Have A Lot Of New Polls, But There’s Little Sign Of The Presidential Race Tightening Instead, Biden gains in the Midwest.
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After a surprisingly sluggish weekend for polling, the floodgates have opened , with a mix of high-quality polls, low-quality polls and pretty much everything in between. And although there are some outliers in both directions, they tell a fairly consistent story, overall: A steady race nationally, perhaps with some gains for Joe Biden in the Midwest.
Let’s dive right in. Following our rules from my colleague Geoffrey Skelley’s post earlier this week, we’re going to look at every poll where at least half of the survey took place after last week’s debate, with a comparison to the most recent pre-debate survey by the same firm. If the pollster hasn’t surveyed a state before, we’ll make the comparison based on what the FiveThirtyEight polling average said in that state as of the night of the debate (Oct. 22) instead.
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As an aside, I set a cutoff for polls as of 7 p.m. Eastern on Wednesday. (More will probably have filtered into the averages by the time that you’re reading this.) We’ll rotate through the four major regions of the country — the South, the West, the Midwest and the Northeast. But first, here are the post-debate national polls:
National polls since the final debate Polls conducted entirely (or mostly) after the Oct. 22 debate compared to the last poll from the same pollster Biden lead Pollster Now Before change US Change Research +8.0 +10.0 -2.0 US CNN/SSRS +12.0 +16.0 -4.0 US Economist/YouGov +11.0 +9.0 +2.0 US Global Marketing Reserch Services +14.0 +16.0 -2.0 US Hart Research/Public Opinion Strategies +11.0 +9.0 +2.0 US IBD/TIPP +5.0 +5.0 +0.0 US J.L. Parnters +14.0 +10.0 +4.0 US Leger +8.0 +9.0 -1.0 US Morning Consult +9.0 +9.0 +0.0 US Qriously +10.0 +12.0 -2.0 US Rasmussen Reports -1.0 +3.0 -4.0 US Redfield & Wilton Strategies +10.0 +11.0 -1.0 US Reuters/Ipsos +10.0 +8.0 +2.0 US RMG Research +7.0 +8.0 -1.0 US SurveyMonkey +4.0 +6.0 -2.0 US Yahoo News/YouGov +12.0 +11.0 +1.0 US Average +9.0 +9.5 -0.5 Source: polls
On average, Biden leads by 9 percentage points using a simple average of post-debate national polls, which matches his 9-point lead in our fancy-schmancy official FiveThirtyEight national average.
It’s a bit of a weird mix of polls, though, with more quantity than quality. The only two fully live-caller national polls in here are from CNN and CNBC/Hart Research/Public Opinion Strategies, which show Biden leading by 12 points and 11 points, respectively. On the one hand, the trendlines aren’t so bad for Trump in those live-caller polls. He trailed by 16 points in CNN’s previous national poll and by 9 points in the past Hart Research/Public Opinion Strategies poll (or by 11 if you prefer to compare it to the prior NBC/Wall Street Journal national poll, which uses the same polling team).
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On the other hand, the higher-quality national polls are showing worse results for Trump than the lower-quality polls, which is rarely a good sign. More highly rated online firms — such as YouGov, Morning Consult and Ipsos — show Trump trailing by margins ranging from 9 to 12 points.
At least some of the fluctuations in our national polling average seem to reflect shifts in the ratio of high-quality and low-quality surveys. This can go through cycles, and recently the higher-quality firms have mostly been concentrating on state polling. Most of them will release their final national polls soon, though, and it wouldn’t be surprising if, following CNN and CNBC’s example, a few more of them show double-digit leads for Biden.
Something else to note: Although there’s been a slight decline in Biden’s national polls since the debate, a majority of state polls show his position improving. To be more precise, Biden has gained 0.7 percentage points in the average state poll since the debate, while he’s lost 0.5 points in the average national poll. That brings the national and state polls into better alignment after a period where national polls suggested that Biden led by 10 to 11 points but state polls were more consistent with a lead of about 9 points instead.
Let’s start our review of the regions with the South, where there’s been a lot of polling over the past couple of days:
Polls of Southern states since the final debate Polls conducted entirely (or mostly) after the Oct. 22 debate compared to the last poll from the same pollster Biden lead Pollster Now Before change FL Florida Atlantic +2.0 +4.0 -2.0 FL Reuters/Ipsos +1.5 +4.5 -3.0 FL Susquehanna Polling & Research -5.0 +4.0 -9.0 GA Civiqs +5.0 +3.0 +2.0 GA Monmouth University +3.0 -3.5 +6.5 MS Civiqs* -14.0 -15.0 +1.0 NC Gravis Marketing +3.0 -3.0 +6.0 NC Harper Polling +1.0 -1.0 +2.0 NC Public Policy Polling +4.0 +4.0 +0.0 NC Reuters/Ipsos +1.0 +2.5 -1.5 NC RMG Research +1.0 +2.0 -1.0 NC SurveyUSA +0.0 +5.0 -5.0 SC East Carolina University -8.0 -12.0 +4.0 SC Starboard Communications* -7.0 -7.0 +0.0 TX Data for Progress +1.0 +1.0 +0.0 TX NYT Upshot/Siena -4.0 -3.0 -1.0 Average -1.0 -0.9 -0.1 * The firm had not previously polled the state and the change is based on the FiveThirtyEight average as of the Oct. 22 debate. Source: polls
It’s hard to tell a coherent story here because every state in the region seems to be marching to its own fight song. Biden’s gotten some great numbers in Georgia since the debate, but he’s had some terrible ones in Florida. North Carolina is somewhere in between, with polls variously suggesting that he’s gaining or losing ground.
Do I buy that there are these microfluctations between neighboring states? I’m not sure that I do, particularly since you have a different mix of pollsters from state to state. Florida and Georgia could use one or two more high-quality polls.
For the time being, though, Biden’s small lead in our Georgia polling average (+1.4) nearly equals his lead in Florida (also +1.4) and North Carolina (+2.1). That means Georgia needs to be taken seriously as a plausible — if unlikely — tipping-point state. It’s going to be the focus of a lot of resource expenditures over the final few days of the campaign, especially since it also has two competitive Senate races. Texas is a step or two away from the rest of the Southern group, meanwhile, as Trump leads in our polling average by 1.8 points there.
Next up on our whirlwind tour of America … the West:
Polls of Western states since the final debate Polls conducted entirely (or mostly) after the Oct. 22 debate compared to the last poll from the same pollster Biden lead Pollster Now Before change AZ Gravis Marketing +4.0 +2.0 +2.0 AZ Ipsos +1.0 +3.5 -2.5 AZ Justice Collaborative Institute* +6.0 +4.0 +2.0 AZ OH Predictive Insights +3.0 +3.5 -0.5 AZ Patinkin Research Strategies* +7.0 +4.0 +3.0 MT Public Policy Polling -2.0 -6.0 +4.0 NV NYT/Siena College +6.0 +6.0 +0.0 Average +3.6 +2.4 +1.1 * The firm had not previously polled the state and the change is based on the FiveThirtyEight average as of the Oct. 22 debate. Source: Polls
This is a decent set of polls for Biden, including in Arizona, where Biden’s lead has oscillated between 3 and 5 points in our polling average for most of the year. It’s in the lower-to-mid part of that range now, at 3.5 points in our official polling average, although the raw average of post-debate Arizona polls is slightly better for him at +4.2.
I realize this might seem like splitting hairs, but Arizona is an important state for Biden, insofar as it’s probably his best backup option if he loses Pennsylvania. (If Biden loses Pennsylvania but wins Arizona, Michigan and Wisconsin, he’d also need to find one more electoral vote somewhere to break a 269-269 Electoral College tie, but he’d probably get that in Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District, where he’s favored.)
In a world where Arizona is polling at Biden +5, it’s really almost as though he has a Plan A1 (Pennsylvania) and Plan A2 (Arizona plus NE-2). That would make his map more robust. In a world where Arizona is Biden +2 or Biden +3, conversely, it doesn’t really stand out from his other backup options, such as North Carolina and Florida, so it would be as though Biden has one Plan A (Pennsylvania) and a bunch of Plan Cs.
Now to the Midwest:
Polls of Midwestern states since the final debate Polls conducted entirely (or mostly) after the Oct. 22 debate compared to the last poll from the same pollster Biden lead Pollster Now Before change IA RABA Research +4.0 +2.0 +2.0 MI ABC News/Washington Post* +7.0 +8.0 -1.0 MI Glengariff Group +8.0 +9.0 -1.0 MI Gravis Marketing +13.0 +9.0 +4.0 MI NYT Upshot/Siena +8.0 +8.0 +0.0 MI Reuters/Ipsos +9.5 +8.0 +1.5 MN Gravis Marketing +14.0 +16.0 -2.0 WI ABC News/Washington Post +17.0 +6.0 +11.0 WI Gravis Marketing +11.0 +8.0 +3.0 WI Marquette Law School +5.0 +5.0 +0.0 Average +9.6 +7.9 +1.7 * The firm had not previously polled the state and the change is based on the FiveThirtyEight average as of the Oct. 22 debate. Source: polls
FiveThirtyEight’s Nathaniel Rakich covered this region this morning, so I’ll be brief here. This is the one part of the country where you can’t really say the race is steady; instead, this has been a strong set of polling for Biden, and he’s gained an average of 1.7 points in surveys in this region versus the pre-debate polls.
No, Trump probably doesn’t trail in Wisconsin by 17 points, as he does in the ABC News/Washington Post poll. (Good pollsters publish their outliers instead of sitting on them, and sometimes they turn out not to be outliers at all.) But average the ABC News poll with the three other post-debate polls of Wisconsin, and Biden is still ahead by 10.5 points there.
Biden’s polling gains may reflect that the COVID-19 outbreak in the Upper Midwest is bad right now, especially in Wisconsin. There is some evidence that the polls tend to shift against Trump following spikes in COVID-19 cases in a state, potentially a foreboding indicator for Trump as COVID-19 cases are also now rising sharply in many other states.
Finally, to the Northeast:
Polls of Northeastern states since the final debate Polls conducted entirely (or mostly) after the Oct. 22 debate compared to the last poll from the same pollster Biden lead Pollster Now Before change ME Colby College +13.0 +11.0 +2.0 PA Civiqs +7.0 +6.0 +1.0 PA Gravis Marketing +7.0 +3.0 +4.0 PA InsiderAdvantage -3.0 +3.0 -6.0 PA Reuters/Ipsos +5.0 +4.0 +1.0 Average +5.8 +5.4 +0.4 Source: polls
By the Northeast, as you can see from the chart above, I really just mean … Pennsylvania, plus one stray poll of Maine. This region has been underpolled. There haven’t been any live-caller polls of Pennsylvania since the debate, and the online and IVR polls show highly disparate results there. New Hampshire has had no post-debate polling at all, meanwhile.
We go back and forth here at FiveThirtyEight about whether Pennsylvania counts as part of the Northeast or the Midwest. I’ve usually been a proponent of the theory that for political purposes, Pennsylvania behaves like a Midwestern state. There are some important geographic, demographic and cultural differences between Pennsylvania and the Upper Midwest, however, and this year, the polling in Pennsylvania hasn’t tracked the numbers in Wisconsin and Michigan that well. Pennsylvania is also not currently experiencing as bad of a COVID-19 outbreak as those other states. So it may be less correlated with them than usual.
But one way or another, the final round of high-quality, live-caller polls in Pennsylvania is likely to make a big difference to our model. Pennsylvania is by far the most likely tipping-point state. If Biden gets up to, say, a 6- or 7-point lead there, he’ll be in a much safer position overall in the Electoral College than if he gets knocked down to a 4-point lead here instead. More polling of the Keystone State is surely to come soon.
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fivethirthyeight--2020-10-29--The Stories That Haven’t Gotten Enough Coverage In 2020

In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast , the crew discusses the state of the race and which important @ @ @ @ @ t covered as much during the 2020 campaign .

The Stories That Haven’t Gotten Enough Coverage In 2020
In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the crew discusses the state of the race and which important stories the press hasn’t covered as much during the 2020 campaign.


fivethirthyeight--2020-10-29--The Battleground States Where We’ve Seen Some Movement In The Polls

With apologies to The Raconteurs , the presidential race continues to be “ steady as she goes , ” with little sign of tightening despite a plethora of new polls .
FiveThirtyEight ’ s presidential forecast gives Joe Biden an 89 in 100 shot at winning the election , while President Trump has just an 11 in 100 chance .
This makes Biden the favorite , but still leaves open a narrow path to victory for Trump , for whom a reelection win would be surprising — but not utterly shocking .
At the same time , we also have @ @ @ @ @ @ @ have historically been more accurate and have shown slightly better numbers for Biden , than polls that use other methodologies , such as polls conducted primarily online or through automated telephone calls .
Nevertheless , while the overall picture has shifted only a little in recent days , a few battleground states have seen at least some movement in their polls , which has slightly altered the odds Biden or Trump wins in each of those places .
For instance , we ’ ve gotten three new high-quality polls today from Florida that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Tuesday , and although these polls have helped Biden a tad , they actually tell a pretty mixed tale compared to each pollster ’ s last look at the Florida situation .
For instance , NBC News/Marist College gave Biden a 4-point lead , 51 percent to 47 percent , which was a narrow improvement for Biden from the tied race Marist found in early September .
However , Quinnipiac University found Biden ahead by just 3 points , 45 percent to 42 percent , which marked a sizable slide from the 11-point @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
And yesterday , Reuters/Ipsos also reported a small downturn in Biden ’ s numbers , as their poll found him up by 2 points , 49 percent to 47 percent , a slight tick down from his 4-point lead about a week ago .
Bottom line : Florida is close , like it always seems to be .
From Florida , we can slide our gaze north of the St. Mary ’ s River to look at Georgia , where we ’ ve actually seen a more sizable shift in Biden ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Biden now has a 57 in 100 chance of winning Georgia , up from 46 in 100 on Monday .
This is important because Georgia is a state that Trump absolutely must win to have any chance of victory — in fact , he wins in less than 1 percent of the scenarios in which Biden carries it .
We have one new poll today that largely aligns with recent polling that has boosted Biden ’ s chances in Georgia .
Democratic pollster Public Policy Polling put Biden ahead by 2 points @ @ @ @ @ @ @ essentially the same as what the pollster found in early October .
Meanwhile , Monmouth University released a Georgia survey yesterday that gave Biden a 2-point or 4-point lead , depending on projected turnout among likely voters , which marked a swing from the pollster ’ s mid-September poll that had Trump ahead by 2 or 5 points , again depending on turnout .
But the short of it in Georgia is that results showing Biden slightly ahead or tied with Trump have become more common .
In fact , Trump has only @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the 13 released in the past 10 days .
Ohio is another state where Trump seemed to have a slight edge , but is now more of a toss-up as our forecast has swung toward Biden and gives both candidates a 1 in 2 shot of winning it .
Two new polls out today precipitated this shift toward Biden , moving the state ’ s polling average from a 2-point Trump lead to a tie .
Most importantly , Quinnipiac University found Biden up by 5 points , 48 percent to 43 percent @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for Biden from Quinnipiac ’ s last survey in early October that had him up by just 1 point .
That poll was the main driver of the shift today in Ohio .
Because not all of the news was good for Biden in Ohio .
Gravis Marketing found Trump ahead in their latest poll , 49 percent to 47 percent .
( This was Gravis ’ s first public poll of Ohio . )
However , some other key states haven ’ t seen much movement despite new polling .
For example @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of new polls in Pennsylvania since late yesterday that both give Biden a lead in the mid-to-high single digits , and one was even a high-quality live-caller poll , which we ’ ve lacked here to some extent .
But they didn ’ t change the forecast ’ s outlook : Biden still has a 86 in 100 chance of winning there .
Neither new poll showed much of a change from its previous Pennsylvania survey either .
The aforementioned live-caller survey from Quinnipiac University that came out today found Biden up 7 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , but that was practically identical to what it found in the middle of October .
Similarly , PoliticalIQ/RMG Research ’ s new survey gave Biden a 6-point advantage , 51 percent to 45 percent , the same margin the pollster found in early October .
We ’ re watching Pennsylvania especially closely , as any movement here matters a lot in our forecast , as it ’ s the state currently most likely to decide the Electoral College .
And the margin as it currently stands leaves room for Trump to win @ @ @ @ @ @ @ as it might take a bit to get the final result there .
Like Pennsylvania , North Carolina is another state where the forecast has hardly budged in the past few days .
Biden now has a 65 in 100 shot of carrying the state , but it ’ s been around that mark since last weekend .
In fact , two new polls released today showed essentially no movement compared to each of the pollsters ’ last surveys in North Carolina .
The New York Times Upshot/Siena College found Biden ahead by @ @ @ @ @ @ @ percent , pretty similar to the 46 percent to 42 percent edge they gave him in mid-October , but now with fewer undecided voters .
Meanwhile , UMass Lowell found the two candidates knotted at 48 percent apiece , which was pretty much the same as a late September poll that found them tied at 47 percent .
On the whole , the topline numbers in this race haven ’ t changed much .
On the one hand , that ’ s good news for Biden as he remains a favorite to win @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the polls mostly hold where they are , it will take a sizable polling error for Trump to win .
However , Biden ’ s advantage would be more concrete were his position in Pennsylvania to improve in the closing days of the campaign .
So we ’ ll just have to see if anything shifts in the final days that changes the trajectory of the race .

The Battleground States Where We’ve Seen Some Movement In The Polls And states like Pennsylvania and North Carolina, which have largely remained the same.
With apologies to The Raconteurs, the presidential race continues to be “steady as she goes,” with little sign of tightening despite a plethora of new polls. FiveThirtyEight’s presidential forecast gives Joe Biden an 89 in 100 shot at winning the election, while President Trump has just an 11 in 100 chance. This makes Biden the favorite, but still leaves open a narrow path to victory for Trump, for whom a reelection win would be surprising — but not utterly shocking.
At the same time, we also have fewer polls from live-caller surveys, which have historically been more accurate and have shown slightly better numbers for Biden, than polls that use other methodologies, such as polls conducted primarily online or through automated telephone calls. Nevertheless, while the overall picture has shifted only a little in recent days, a few battleground states have seen at least some movement in their polls, which has slightly altered the odds Biden or Trump wins in each of those places.
What election stories need to get more coverage | FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast
For instance, we’ve gotten three new high-quality polls today from Florida that were in the field through at least Tuesday, and although these polls have helped Biden a tad, they actually tell a pretty mixed tale compared to each pollster’s last look at the Florida situation. For instance, NBC News/Marist College gave Biden a 4-point lead, 51 percent to 47 percent, which was a narrow improvement for Biden from the tied race Marist found in early September. However, Quinnipiac University found Biden ahead by just 3 points, 45 percent to 42 percent, which marked a sizable slide from the 11-point edge it gave Biden in early October.
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And yesterday, Reuters/Ipsos also reported a small downturn in Biden’s numbers, as their poll found him up by 2 points, 49 percent to 47 percent, a slight tick down from his 4-point lead about a week ago. Bottom line: Florida is close, like it always seems to be.
From Florida, we can slide our gaze north of the St. Mary’s River to look at Georgia, where we’ve actually seen a more sizable shift in Biden’s direction over the past few days. Biden now has a 57 in 100 chance of winning Georgia, up from 46 in 100 on Monday. This is important because Georgia is a state that Trump absolutely must win to have any chance of victory — in fact, he wins in less than 1 percent of the scenarios in which Biden carries it.
We have one new poll today that largely aligns with recent polling that has boosted Biden’s chances in Georgia. Democratic pollster Public Policy Polling put Biden ahead by 2 points, 48 percent to 46 percent, essentially the same as what the pollster found in early October. Meanwhile, Monmouth University released a Georgia survey yesterday that gave Biden a 2-point or 4-point lead, depending on projected turnout among likely voters, which marked a swing from the pollster’s mid-September poll that had Trump ahead by 2 or 5 points, again depending on turnout. But the short of it in Georgia is that results showing Biden slightly ahead or tied with Trump have become more common. In fact, Trump has only led in two Georgia surveys out of the 13 released in the past 10 days.
Ohio is another state where Trump seemed to have a slight edge, but is now more of a toss-up as our forecast has swung toward Biden and gives both candidates a 1 in 2 shot of winning it.
Two new polls out today precipitated this shift toward Biden, moving the state’s polling average from a 2-point Trump lead to a tie. Most importantly, Quinnipiac University found Biden up by 5 points, 48 percent to 43 percent, which was a fairly substantial improvement for Biden from Quinnipiac’s last survey in early October that had him up by just 1 point. That poll was the main driver of the shift today in Ohio. Because not all of the news was good for Biden in Ohio. Gravis Marketing found Trump ahead in their latest poll, 49 percent to 47 percent. (This was Gravis’s first public poll of Ohio.)
However, some other key states haven’t seen much movement despite new polling. For example, we’ve seen a couple of new polls in Pennsylvania since late yesterday that both give Biden a lead in the mid-to-high single digits, and one was even a high-quality live-caller poll, which we’ve lacked here to some extent. But they didn’t change the forecast’s outlook: Biden still has a 86 in 100 chance of winning there.
Neither new poll showed much of a change from its previous Pennsylvania survey either. The aforementioned live-caller survey from Quinnipiac University that came out today found Biden up 7 points, 51 percent to 44 percent, but that was practically identical to what it found in the middle of October. Similarly, PoliticalIQ/RMG Research’s new survey gave Biden a 6-point advantage, 51 percent to 45 percent, the same margin the pollster found in early October.
We’re watching Pennsylvania especially closely, as any movement here matters a lot in our forecast, as it’s the state currently most likely to decide the Electoral College. And the margin as it currently stands leaves room for Trump to win on Nov. 3 — or after, as it might take a bit to get the final result there.
Like Pennsylvania, North Carolina is another state where the forecast has hardly budged in the past few days. Biden now has a 65 in 100 shot of carrying the state, but it’s been around that mark since last weekend.
In fact, two new polls released today showed essentially no movement compared to each of the pollsters’ last surveys in North Carolina. The New York Times Upshot/Siena College found Biden ahead by 3 points, 48 percent to 45 percent, pretty similar to the 46 percent to 42 percent edge they gave him in mid-October, but now with fewer undecided voters. Meanwhile, UMass Lowell found the two candidates knotted at 48 percent apiece, which was pretty much the same as a late September poll that found them tied at 47 percent.
On the whole, the topline numbers in this race haven’t changed much. On the one hand, that’s good news for Biden as he remains a favorite to win the presidency. That is, if the polls mostly hold where they are, it will take a sizable polling error for Trump to win. However, Biden’s advantage would be more concrete were his position in Pennsylvania to improve in the closing days of the campaign. So we’ll just have to see if anything shifts in the final days that changes the trajectory of the race.
Could any surprises still affect the race for president?


fivethirthyeight--2020-10-29--Politics Podcast: All The Stuff We Should Have Talked More About In 2020

Only five days remain until Election Day , and Joe Biden currently has a 89 percent chance of winning , @ @ @ @ @ In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast , the crew discusses the state of @ @ @ @ @ which important stories have been under-covered by the press during the 2020 campaign .
You @ @ @ @ @ by clicking the “ play ” button in the audio player above or by downloading @ @ @ @ @ ESPN App or your favorite podcast platform .
If you are new to podcasts , @ @ @ @ @ The FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast is recorded Mondays and Thursdays .
Help new listeners discover the @ @ @ @ @ rating and review on iTunes .
Have a comment , question or suggestion for “ @ @ @ @ @ ” ?
Get in touch by email , on Twitter or in the comments .

Politics Podcast: All The Stuff We Should Have Talked More About In 2020
Only five days remain until Election Day, and Joe Biden currently has a 89 percent chance of winning, according to our forecast. In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the crew discusses the state of the race and also considers which important stories have been under-covered by the press during the 2020 campaign.
You can listen to the episode by clicking the “play” button in the audio player above or by downloading it in iTunes, the ESPN App or your favorite podcast platform. If you are new to podcasts, learn how to listen.
The FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast is recorded Mondays and Thursdays. Help new listeners discover the show by leaving us a rating and review on iTunes. Have a comment, question or suggestion for “good polling vs. bad polling”? Get in touch by email, on Twitter or in the comments.


fivethirthyeight--2020-10-29--QAnon Isn’t Going To Take Over Congress In 2020. But It’s Found A Home In The GOP.

Marjorie Taylor Greene has not been shy about her support for QAnon — a conspiracy theory that alleges the existence of a widespread child sex trafficking ring run by a cabal of satanic and cannibalistic elites , whom only President Trump can stop .
She has tweeted “ # GreatAwakening ” to Alex Jones , called Q “ a patriot ” and has even hosted videos detailing the evidence she believes proves Q is “ the real deal.
” When she won the Republican nomination for Georgia ’ s 14th District , academics called her win a “ bellwether ” @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , and media outlets wondered if Greene ’ s win signified a wider trend .
Was there about to be a Qaucus in Congress ?
Will millions of dollars on TV ads make a difference in the race for the presidency ?
Not likely .
Greene , who has since tried to distance herself from the conspiracy theory , may very well be the only candidate with ties to QAnon who actually wins her race , according to FiveThirtyEight ’ s election forecast .
But the dozens of Republicans who have voiced support @ @ @ @ @ @ @ show how GOP leadership has allowed QAnon to become a part of the party , even if the GOP hasn ’ t explicitly embraced it .
Fringe candidates with unusual beliefs can be found in every election , of course , but this cohort of QAnon followers on the ballot is somewhat unique .
“ People with crazy beliefs run for Congress all the time , it ’ s just a question of whether there ’ s a unifying force among candidates of their crazy beliefs , ” said Kyle Kondik , the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics .
There ’ s no master list of QAnon-linked candidates , but some organizations and news outlets have compiled running tallies .
Media Matters , a liberal media watchdog group , has put together a list of 31 candidates with active campaigns for Congress whom it links to QAnon , but a “ link ” is a term with broad interpretation .
Some candidates , like Derrick Grayson , a Republican running in Georgia ’ s U.S. Senate special election , have simply tweeted @ @ @ @ @ @ @ like Jo Rae Perkins , the Republican nominee for U.S. Senate in Oregon , have been more explicit about their QAnon beliefs .
“ Some of those links are somewhat tenuous , ” said Joseph Uscinski , a political scientist at the University of Miami who studies conspiracy theories .
“ I would prefer my candidates to have no connections or links at all to QAnon , but that phrase ‘ linked to QAnon ’ is often taken to mean that they ’ re true believers .
Some of them are true believers @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Few of the candidates Media Matters identified have any chance of winning their races .
Of the 31 candidates identified by Media Matters , 26 of them have measurable odds according to the FiveThirtyEight forecast .
Aside from Greene , only two other candidates of the 26 have better than a 1 in 100 chance of taking their races ( and one of those two , Erin Cruz , who ’ s running in California ’ s 36th district , has just a 3 in 100 shot ) , according to our model @ @ @ @ @ @ @ who has withdrawn from the race but remains on the ballot .
And another Republican candidate , gun rights activist Lauren Boebert , who ’ s running in Colorado ’ s third district , is currently slightly favored to win her race ( she has a 59 in 100 shot of winning the seat ) .
She previously appeared on two different YouTube shows hosted by QAnon believers , and said she was “ very familiar ” with Q and that she “ hoped it is real.
” More recently , Boebert has @ @ @ @ @ @ @ does not believe in conspiracy theories .
There ’ s one other Republican candidate not on Media Matters ’ list who has a good shot .
Burgess Owens , who is running in Utah ’ s 4th District , has appeared on a pro-QAnon podcast and YouTube channel and has said he thinks the conspiracy theory is worth taking a look at , though he also stated that accusations of him supporting QAnon are “ silly.
” FiveThirtyEight ’ s forecast gives Owens a 42 in 100 chance of winning the seat .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ who have at some point expressed support for QAnon and have won nominations around the country .
Owens makes 20 .
All all of them are Republican nominees .
For its part , the GOP has done little to distance itself from its QAnon-adjacent candidates , instead rejecting the fact that multiple Republican candidates for Congress have links to the group .
Ronna McDaniel , the chair of the Republican National Committee , told ABC News it ’ s “ a fringe group .
It ’ s not part of our party.
” @ @ @ @ @ @ @ repeatedly asked about whether he denounces QAnon , and he consistently demurs , claiming ignorance of the movement and saying its followers “ fight ” against pedophilia and are people who “ love our country.
” “ Trump has a track record for a decade where all he does is traffic in conspiracy theories , ” Uscinski said .
“ Trump built a coalition on conspiracy theories .
He started 10 years ago with birtherism , he pushed anti-vaxx ideas .
This is his modus operandi.
” Regardless of how many explicit allies @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a conspiratorial mindset has already taken root in the GOP .
FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast : How the electorate will be different in 2020 UPDATE ( October 29 , 2020 , 5:33 p.m. ) : This article was updated to include the candidacy of Burgess Owens , who is not on Media Matters ’ list .

QAnon Isn’t Going To Take Over Congress In 2020. But It’s Found A Home In The GOP.
Before running for office, Marjorie Taylor Greene was not shy about her support for QAnon — a conspiracy theory that alleges the existence of a widespread child sex trafficking ring run by a cabal of satanic and cannibalistic elites, whom only President Trump can stop. She tweeted “#GreatAwakening” to Alex Jones, called Q “a patriot” and even hosted videos detailing the evidence she believes proves Q is “the real deal.” When she won the Republican nomination for Georgia’s 14th District, academics called her win a “bellwether” for the movement and for American politics, and media outlets wondered if Greene’s win signified a wider trend. Was there about to be a Qaucus in Congress?
Will millions of dollars on TV ads make a difference in the race for the presidency?
Not likely. Greene, who has since tried to distance herself from the conspiracy theory, may very well be the only candidate with ties to QAnon who actually wins her race, according to FiveThirtyEight’s election forecast. But the dozens of Republicans who have voiced support for at least some elements of QAnon show how GOP leadership has allowed QAnon to become a part of the party, even if the GOP hasn’t explicitly embraced it.
[Live Updates: We’re Tracking The Vote And Voting Problems]
Fringe candidates with unusual beliefs can be found in every election, of course, but this cohort of QAnon followers on the ballot is somewhat unique.
“People with crazy beliefs run for Congress all the time, it’s just a question of whether there’s a unifying force among candidates of their crazy beliefs,” said Kyle Kondik, the managing editor at Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics.
There’s no master list of QAnon-linked candidates, but some organizations and news outlets have compiled running tallies. Media Matters, a liberal media watchdog group, has put together a list of 31 candidates with active campaigns for Congress whom it links to QAnon, but a “link” is a term with broad interpretation. Some candidates, like Derrick Grayson, a Republican running in Georgia’s U.S. Senate special election, have simply tweeted the #WWG1WGA hashtag. Others, like Jo Rae Perkins, the Republican nominee for U.S. Senate in Oregon, have been more explicit about their QAnon beliefs.
“Some of those links are somewhat tenuous,” said Joseph Uscinski, a political scientist at the University of Miami who studies conspiracy theories. “I would prefer my candidates to have no connections or links at all to QAnon, but that phrase ‘linked to QAnon’ is often taken to mean that they’re true believers. Some of them are true believers, but not all of them.”
Few of the candidates Media Matters identified have any chance of winning their races. Of the 31 candidates identified by Media Matters, 26 of them have measurable odds according to the FiveThirtyEight forecast. Aside from Greene, only two other candidates of the 26 have better than a 1 in 100 chance of taking their races (and one of those two, Erin Cruz, who’s running in California’s 36th district, has just a 3 in 100 shot), according to our model. Greene is running against a Democrat who has withdrawn from the race but remains on the ballot. And another Republican candidate, gun rights activist Lauren Boebert, who’s running in Colorado’s third district, is currently slightly favored to win her race (she has a 59 in 100 shot of winning the seat). She previously appeared on two different YouTube shows hosted by QAnon believers, and said she was “very familiar” with Q and that she “hoped it is real.” More recently, Boebert has said she does not follow QAnon and does not believe in conspiracy theories.
There’s one other Republican candidate not on Media Matters’ list who has a good shot. Burgess Owens, who is running in Utah’s 4th District, has appeared on a pro-QAnon podcast and YouTube channel and has said he thinks the conspiracy theory is worth taking a look at, though he also stated that accusations of him supporting QAnon are “silly.” FiveThirtyEight’s forecast gives Owens a 42 in 100 chance of winning the seat.
Media Matters’ list shows 19 candidates who have at some point expressed support for QAnon and have won nominations around the country. Owens makes 20. All all of them are Republican nominees. For its part, the GOP has done little to distance itself from its QAnon-adjacent candidates, instead rejecting the fact that multiple Republican candidates for Congress have links to the group. Ronna McDaniel, the chair of the Republican National Committee, told ABC News it’s “a fringe group. It’s not part of our party.”
President Trump, meanwhile, has been repeatedly asked about whether he denounces QAnon, and he consistently demurs, claiming ignorance of the movement and saying its followers “fight” against pedophilia and are people who “love our country.”
“Trump has a track record for a decade where all he does is traffic in conspiracy theories,” Uscinski said. “Trump built a coalition on conspiracy theories. He started 10 years ago with birtherism, he pushed anti-vaxx ideas. This is his modus operandi.” Regardless of how many explicit allies QAnon has in Congress next term, a conspiratorial mindset has already taken root in the GOP.
FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast: How the electorate will be different in 2020
UPDATE (October 29, 2020, 5:33 p.m.): This article was updated to include the candidacy of Burgess Owens, who is not on Media Matters’ list.
CLARIFICATION (Oct. 30, 2020: 11:52 a.m.): This article has been updated to make clear that Greene’s pro-QAnon comments were made before she ran for office.


fivethirthyeight--2020-10-29--Democrats And Republicans Are Spending Millions On TV Advertising. Will It Even Make A Difference?

The Trump and Biden campaigns are both spending hundreds of millions of dollars nationally on broadcast TV advertisements .
FiveThirtyEight @ @ @ @ @ at which states are seeing the biggest ad buys .

Democrats And Republicans Are Spending Millions On TV Advertising. Will It Even Make A Difference?
The Trump and Biden campaigns are both spending hundreds of millions of dollars nationally on broadcast TV advertisements. FiveThirtyEight elections analyst Nathaniel Rakich looks at which states are seeing the biggest ad buys.


fivethirthyeight--2020-10-29--Trump Is Losing Ground With Some — But Not All — White Christians

For the past few months , Joe Biden has been courting a key segment of President Trump ’ s base : conservative white Christians .
That ’ s a bold move , to say the least — because they made up a huge share of the Republican coalition in 2016 .
So is Biden ’ s plan working ?
Are white Christians , including white evangelical Protestants , who have been among Trump ’ s most loyal supporters , actually abandoning the president for Biden ?
The answer depends on which white Christians you ’ re looking at .
FiveThirtyEight @ @ @ @ @ @ @ be different in 2020 Despite Biden ’ s claims that he can appeal to white evangelical Protestants , there really aren ’ t any signs that Trump is losing support among this group .
But Trump may have reason to worry about his level of support among white Catholics .
Politicians and the media typically pay less attention to these voters during election season , but white Catholics are especially important to watch this year because they ’ re a sizable group — and they ’ re concentrated in Rust Belt swing states @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Trump won white Catholics handily in 2016 , but there are signs that his hold on this group is slipping .
That ’ s doubly worrisome for the president because white Christians are declining as a share of the population overall .
And if overall turnout is high and he loses some support from white Catholics without making up the difference among other groups , Trump could be in trouble — even if he overwhelmingly wins white evangelicals again .
Earlier this month , Biden announced he had the support of a new @ @ @ @ @ @ @ doesn ’ t seem to be trickling down to white evangelical voters , who are still firmly in Trump ’ s camp .
According to a Pew Research Center poll conducted in late September and early October , 78 percent of white evangelical Protestant voters support Trump , while only 17 percent support Biden , which is right in line with Trump ’ s 2016 support .
It ’ s possible that Trump has gained even more support among white evangelicals this cycle .
Polling by PRRI , a nonpartisan public-opinion research organization @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Trump since he was a presidential candidate and found that it ’ s been consistently much higher than among Americans as a whole .
Trump ’ s approval rating among white evangelicals did dip very slightly in August , but his numbers rebounded in September as the campaign moved into gear .
And according to PRRI ’ s American Values Survey , conducted in September , 79 percent of white evangelical likely voters are supporting Trump — which is actually 9 percentage points higher than his support among this group at a comparable @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ The conservative thing to say is that they are as strongly behind the president as they were in 2016 , ” said Robert P. Jones , PRRI ’ s founder and CEO .
“ But we might even have evidence that they ’ re even more strongly behind Trump than they were four years ago.
” One possible reason for this consistent support , even amid all the turmoil of 2020 , is that white evangelical Protestants just don ’ t see COVID-19 — and Trump ’ s handling of the pandemic @ @ @ @ @ @ @ vote .
According to PRRI , every major religious group ranked COVID-19 as one of their top three critical issues — except for white evangelical Protestants .
Instead , abortion was their most critical issue .
They also ranked concerns about crime highly , which has been a key part of Trump ’ s campaign message to voters .
Jones told me he saw white evangelicals ’ lack of concern about COVID-19 as a sign of their loyalty to Trump .
“ Day in and day out , they ’ ve supported this @ @ @ @ @ @ @ when he says , ‘ We ’ re rounding a corner [ with COVID-19 ] , ’ they believe him , ” Jones said .
Among white Catholics , another important — but often overlooked — religious demographic group , however , Trump seems to have lost a significant amount of support .
Back in 2016 , he won 60 percent of white Catholics ’ support , according to exit polls .
That ’ s about where Trump was polling back in late July and early August , according to Pew .
But @ @ @ @ @ @ @ fell to 52 percent , while Biden ’ s rose a bit , shrinking Trump ’ s overall margin among white Catholics by 11 points .
And in a recent PRRI survey , it was actually Biden who had majority support ( 54 percent ) among Catholic likely voters , while Trump had only 41 percent support from this group .
Either way , those polls put Trump in a precarious position , given how crucial white Catholic support could be for his reelection prospects .
This group is particularly key because there @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Rust Belt swing states like Wisconsin , Michigan and Pennsylvania , which Trump won narrowly in 2016 .
And although white Catholics have been moving steadily into the Republican column over the past decade , they ’ re more politically moderate than white evangelicals .
Moreover , said Ryan Burge , a political science professor at Eastern Illinois University who studies religion and politics , white Catholics in that region might be especially drawn to Biden because he is also a white Catholic from a Rust Belt state .
Over the course of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ his Catholic faith and identity into his pitch to voters — and Burge thinks it may be working .
“ Biden has a pull , which is that white Catholics can look at him and see someone who reminds them of their father , their uncle , ” he said .
One thing is clear , too — white Catholics were a lot more concerned than white evangelical Protestants about the COVID-19 pandemic , and a lot more critical of Trump ’ s response to the virus .
According to PRRI ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ disapproved of Trump ’ s handling of the COVID-19 pandemic , and 65 percent believed the spread of the virus could have been controlled better .
White Catholics were also fairly critical of Trump ’ s handling of the racial justice protests that cropped up this summer in response to the killing of Black people by police : More than half ( 56 percent ) disapproved of Trump ’ s handling of the protests , and nearly half ( 49 percent ) agreed that his decisions and behavior as president have encouraged white @ @ @ @ @ @ @ In other words , Trump ’ s focus on “ law and order ” politics in the campaign may not resonate as much with white Catholics , and their perceptions of how he ’ s mismanaged the pandemic may make it impossible for him to win back many of these voters .
How the media projects the winner of an election | FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast Some eroding support among white Catholics might not seem like such a big deal for Trump , but it just compounds a challenge that he — and Republicans @ @ @ @ @ @ @ while now : White Christians are shrinking as a share of the total population , and have been for years .
This demographic shift isn ’ t always reflected in the electorate , because white Christians are more apt to turn out to vote than other groups — in 2016 , for instance , white evangelical Protestants made up 26 percent of Americans who cast a ballot , even though they accounted for only 17 percent of the total population , according to PRRI .
But if voter turnout is high this year @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ The reality is that Trump could win the same high share of white evangelical Protestants that he did back in 2016 and still lose the election , because that slice of the population is in decline , ” Burge said .
A tighter margin among white Catholics just exacerbates the problem , because those are more votes that Trump has to make up elsewhere .
The Republicans ’ reliance on white Christians isn ’ t just a problem for Trump , of course — it ’ s an issue for any GOP @ @ @ @ @ @ @ population is becoming less white and less Christian overall .
But white Christians ’ shrinking numbers could be an especially big issue for Trump this year , if he ’ s also losing some of the white Catholics in the Rust Belt who voted for him four years ago .

For the past few months, Joe Biden has been courting a key segment of President Trump’s base: conservative white Christians. That’s a bold move, to say the least — because they made up a huge share of the Republican coalition in 2016.
[Live Updates: We’re Tracking The Vote And Voting Problems]
So is Biden’s plan working? Are white Christians, including white evangelical Protestants, who have been among Trump’s most loyal supporters, actually abandoning the president for Biden?
The answer depends on which white Christians you’re looking at.
FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast: How the electorate will be different in 2020
Despite Biden’s claims that he can appeal to white evangelical Protestants, there really aren’t any signs that Trump is losing support among this group. But Trump may have reason to worry about his level of support among white Catholics. Politicians and the media typically pay less attention to these voters during election season, but white Catholics are especially important to watch this year because they’re a sizable group — and they’re concentrated in Rust Belt swing states like Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania.
Trump won white Catholics handily in 2016, but there are signs that his hold on this group is slipping. That’s doubly worrisome for the president because white Christians are declining as a share of the population overall. And if overall turnout is high and he loses some support from white Catholics without making up the difference among other groups, Trump could be in trouble — even if he overwhelmingly wins white evangelicals again.
Trump’s white evangelical support is still solid
Earlier this month, Biden announced he had the support of a new group of evangelical leaders, but this doesn’t seem to be trickling down to white evangelical voters, who are still firmly in Trump’s camp. According to a Pew Research Center poll conducted in late September and early October, 78 percent of white evangelical Protestant voters support Trump, while only 17 percent support Biden, which is right in line with Trump’s 2016 support.
White Christians are more supportive of Trump Share of registered voters who say they support Trump or Biden, by religious affiliation and race/ethnicity Trump Biden Margin White evangelical Protestant 78% 17% +61 White non-evangelical Protestant 53 43 +10 Black Protestant 9 90 +81 White non-Hispanic Catholic 52 44 +8 Hispanic Catholic 26 67 +41 Jewish 27 70 +43 NET Unaffiliated 22 71 +49 Atheist 7 88 +81 Agnostic 15 79 +64 Nothing in particular 31 62 +31 From a survey of 10,543 registered voters conducted Sept. 30-Oct. 5. Both Trump’s and Biden’s support numbers include respondents who lean toward that candidate. Source: Pew Research Center
It’s possible that Trump has gained even more support among white evangelicals this cycle. Polling by PRRI, a nonpartisan public-opinion research organization, has tracked white evangelical support for Trump since he was a presidential candidate and found that it’s been consistently much higher than among Americans as a whole. Trump’s approval rating among white evangelicals did dip very slightly in August, but his numbers rebounded in September as the campaign moved into gear. And according to PRRI’s American Values Survey, conducted in September, 79 percent of white evangelical likely voters are supporting Trump — which is actually 9 percentage points higher than his support among this group at a comparable point in the 2016 election cycle. “The conservative thing to say is that they are as strongly behind the president as they were in 2016,” said Robert P. Jones, PRRI’s founder and CEO. “But we might even have evidence that they’re even more strongly behind Trump than they were four years ago.”
One possible reason for this consistent support, even amid all the turmoil of 2020, is that white evangelical Protestants just don’t see COVID-19 — and Trump’s handling of the pandemic — as a big issue for their vote. According to PRRI, every major religious group ranked COVID-19 as one of their top three critical issues — except for white evangelical Protestants. Instead, abortion was their most critical issue. They also ranked concerns about crime highly, which has been a key part of Trump’s campaign message to voters. Jones told me he saw white evangelicals’ lack of concern about COVID-19 as a sign of their loyalty to Trump.
“Day in and day out, they’ve supported this president at extraordinarily high levels, so when he says, ‘We’re rounding a corner [with COVID-19],’ they believe him,” Jones said.
Trump’s white Catholic support has slipped
Among white Catholics, another important — but often overlooked — religious demographic group, however, Trump seems to have lost a significant amount of support. Back in 2016, he won 60 percent of white Catholics’ support, according to exit polls. That’s about where Trump was polling back in late July and early August, according to Pew. But between August and October, his support fell to 52 percent, while Biden’s rose a bit, shrinking Trump’s overall margin among white Catholics by 11 points. And in a recent PRRI survey, it was actually Biden who had majority support (54 percent) among Catholic likely voters, while Trump had only 41 percent support from this group.
Either way, those polls put Trump in a precarious position, given how crucial white Catholic support could be for his reelection prospects. This group is particularly key because there are a lot of white Catholics in Rust Belt swing states like Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania, which Trump won narrowly in 2016. And although white Catholics have been moving steadily into the Republican column over the past decade, they’re more politically moderate than white evangelicals.
Moreover, said Ryan Burge, a political science professor at Eastern Illinois University who studies religion and politics, white Catholics in that region might be especially drawn to Biden because he is also a white Catholic from a Rust Belt state. Over the course of the campaign, Biden has actively woven his Catholic faith and identity into his pitch to voters — and Burge thinks it may be working. “Biden has a pull, which is that white Catholics can look at him and see someone who reminds them of their father, their uncle,” he said.
One thing is clear, too — white Catholics were a lot more concerned than white evangelical Protestants about the COVID-19 pandemic, and a lot more critical of Trump’s response to the virus. According to PRRI’s polling, 60 percent of white Catholics disapproved of Trump’s handling of the COVID-19 pandemic, and 65 percent believed the spread of the virus could have been controlled better. White Catholics were also fairly critical of Trump’s handling of the racial justice protests that cropped up this summer in response to the killing of Black people by police: More than half (56 percent) disapproved of Trump’s handling of the protests, and nearly half (49 percent) agreed that his decisions and behavior as president have encouraged white supremacist groups to be more active. In other words, Trump’s focus on “law and order” politics in the campaign may not resonate as much with white Catholics, and their perceptions of how he’s mismanaged the pandemic may make it impossible for him to win back many of these voters.
How the media projects the winner of an election | FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast
Some eroding support among white Catholics might not seem like such a big deal for Trump, but it just compounds a challenge that he — and Republicans more broadly — has faced for a while now: White Christians are shrinking as a share of the total population, and have been for years. This demographic shift isn’t always reflected in the electorate, because white Christians are more apt to turn out to vote than other groups — in 2016, for instance, white evangelical Protestants made up 26 percent of Americans who cast a ballot, even though they accounted for only 17 percent of the total population, according to PRRI.
But if voter turnout is high this year, their impact could be diluted. “The reality is that Trump could win the same high share of white evangelical Protestants that he did back in 2016 and still lose the election, because that slice of the population is in decline,” Burge said. A tighter margin among white Catholics just exacerbates the problem, because those are more votes that Trump has to make up elsewhere.
The Republicans’ reliance on white Christians isn’t just a problem for Trump, of course — it’s an issue for any GOP candidate in a country where the voting population is becoming less white and less Christian overall. But white Christians’ shrinking numbers could be an especially big issue for Trump this year, if he’s also losing some of the white Catholics in the Rust Belt who voted for him four years ago.


fivethirthyeight--2020-10-29--How To Vote Safely In A Pandemic

How To Vote Safely In A Pandemic

On this week ’ s episode of PODCAST-19 , Anna Rothschild talks to FiveThirtyEight ’ s Nathaniel Rakich and Maggie @ @ @ @ @ trying to make it safe to vote in person , and what you should keep @ @ @ @ @ to the polls .
Don ’ t want to miss an episode of PODCAST-19 , @ @ @ @ @ at what we know — and what we know we don ’ t know — @ @ @ @ @ your favorite podcasting app .
For example , here ’ s where to do it @ @ @ @ @ .

On this week’s episode of PODCAST-19, Anna Rothschild talks to FiveThirtyEight’s Nathaniel Rakich and Maggie Koerth about how states are trying to make it safe to vote in person, and what you should keep in mind as you go to the polls.
Don’t want to miss an episode of PODCAST-19, FiveThirtyEight’s weekly look at what we know — and what we know we don’t know — about COVID-19? Subscribe on your favorite podcasting app. For example, here’s where to do it on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.


fivethirthyeight--2020-10-29--Drew Brees Almost Never Throws Deep Anymore. Is That A Problem For The Saints?

Drew Brees of the New Orleans Saints is having one of the most interesting quarterback seasons in recent memory .
Criticized harshly for a weak arm , the 41-year-old almost never throws the ball deep anymore , instead tossing short passes to running back Alvin Kamara and various receivers not named Michael Thomas .
( The All-Pro has been injured since Week 1 . )
Because they pose minimal danger over the top to keep defenses honest , you might think that Brees and the Saints would be struggling .
And yet , New Orleans has started the season with @ @ @ @ @ @ @ six games for a fourth consecutive year , and Brees is seventh in the NFL in Total QBR .
Brees has been trending in this direction for a while , but he is now pushing the absolute limits of how much a quarterback can accomplish without having the arm to back it up .
Going back to 2006 , the earliest season for which ESPN has data on air yards , only one QB threw a shorter average pass than Brees ’ s 5.80 mark this year : Alex Smith of the Kansas @ @ @ @ @ @ @ pass traveled just 5.58 yards through the air .
And no QB in the entire sample had a season in which he threw a smaller share of passes 20 or more yards downfield than Brees ’ s 3.3 percent rate so far in 2020 .
( Even for Smith in 2014 , 5.4 percent of his passes traveled at least 20 yards . )
The success levels for other short-tossing quarterbacks have varied .
Ryan Tannehill of the Titans , for instance , doesn ’ t go deep much more often than Brees @ @ @ @ @ @ @ very good season .
( Tannehill ’ s average pass travels nearly 2 yards farther than Brees ’ s , though , because he seldom targets receivers behind the line of scrimmage . )
But Smith was mediocre in 2014 — and that ’ s more often been the case for the QBs who rank highly on both lists above .
Excluding Brees ’ s 2020 , the average QBR for passers with both an average air yards per attempt below 7.00 and fewer than 8 percent of passes traveling at least 20 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ well below the overall league average of 60.4 since 2006 .
By QBR , Brees is doing better this year than in 2019 — another very short-passing season by historical standards — despite throwing deep even less ( and despite not having Thomas , who set the all-time NFL record for receptions in a season last year ) .
New Orleans ’ s leading receiver this season — by no small margin — has been Kamara , who ’ s tracking to be one of only five primary running backs to lead a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ according to ESPN ’ s Stats & Information Group .
Similar to how most extreme short passers struggle to post efficient numbers , the other offenses whose receiving corps were led by running backs tended to grade as mediocre , according to schedule-adjusted expected points added ( EPA ) .
This is consistent with research that shows passes to running backs as being less valuable than those directed to other positions .
Simply put , it ’ s difficult to build an effective offense around short throws that disproportionately target players coming out @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the Saints are defying all that this season , with Brees passing well and the New Orleans offense once again ranking among the top 10 in EPA , as it has every season since Brees arrived in 2006 .
Some of it comes down to Kamara ’ s unique talent as a receiver ; no other running back is even close to being as valuable a pass catcher , according to Football Outsiders ’ Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement metric .
A lot of it has to do with coach Sean Payton and offensive @ @ @ @ @ @ @ According to the NFL ’ s Next Gen Stats , 51 percent of Brees ’ s passes this season have been characterized as “ open ” or “ wide-open , ” meaning no defender was within 3 yards of the pass target when it arrived ; only three qualified passers ( Patrick Mahomes , Josh Allen and Jimmy Garoppolo ) made more of their throws to receivers so lightly covered .
And , of course , that figure is also aided by Brees ’ s own vast knowledge of the Saints ’ offensive @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that Brees and Garoppolo have made the “ easiest ” throws of any QB this season — each has an expected completion percentage of about 71 percent based on the depth ( and other characteristics ) of their throws — Brees has somehow managed to exceed that expectation , completing his passes at a rate 1.9 percentage points higher than we ’ d expect of an average QB with the same set of throws .
Despite his lack of arm strength and disinclination to throw any deeper than 20 yards downfield , Brees @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ability to read defenses .
It has been a magic act worth appreciating .
The real question , however , will be if Brees can keep it up over the rest of the season .
That ’ s an especially pressing issue now , with Thomas still struggling to return and leading wide receiver Emmanuel Sanders on the COVID-19 reserve list .
The Chicago Bears , New Orleans ’ s Week 8 opponent , have the NFL ’ s sixth-ranked defense by EPA ( and are fourth-best against the pass ) , so @ @ @ @ @ @ @ opponent for Brees and the Saints ’ short-passing scheme .
They ’ ll also serve as a test for whether New Orleans can live up to its solid Super Bowl odds , despite deploying such a limited passing attack .
Looking ahead : Among Week 8 ’ s slate of games , we ’ ve got our eye on Sunday afternoon ’ s clash between the Steelers and Ravens .
Both teams have strong playoff odds — each sits in excess of 94 percent — but the contest could have huge implications on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ also the all-important race for the AFC ’ s top overall seed .
Pittsburgh is undefeated and has dominated with its defense , though Ben Roethlisberger ( Elo ’ s 13th-ranked QB ) may be starting to show his age after below-average games in three of his past four starts .
On Baltimore ’ s side , it has recovered from a 14-point loss to Kansas City in Week 3 to win three straight , with QB Lamar Jackson playing more like himself in the recent win over Philadelphia — though the Eagles @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on paper ) one of the NFL ’ s top defenses was concerning .
Elo likes the Ravens at home here , giving them a 60 percent chance at the victory , but the teams are pretty evenly matched , and it should be an excellent defensive battle .
Elo ’ s spread : Baltimore -3

Drew Brees Almost Never Throws Deep Anymore. Is That A Problem For The Saints? It hasn’t been so far.
Drew Brees of the New Orleans Saints is having one of the most interesting quarterback seasons in recent memory. Criticized harshly for a weak arm, the 41-year-old almost never throws the ball deep anymore, instead tossing short passes to running back Alvin Kamara and various receivers not named Michael Thomas. (The All-Pro has been injured since Week 1.)
Because they pose minimal danger over the top to keep defenses honest, you might think that Brees and the Saints would be struggling. And yet, New Orleans has started the season with at least four wins in its first six games for a fourth consecutive year, and Brees is seventh in the NFL in Total QBR. Brees has been trending in this direction for a while, but he is now pushing the absolute limits of how much a quarterback can accomplish without having the arm to back it up.
Going back to 2006, the earliest season for which ESPN has data on air yards, only one QB threw a shorter average pass than Brees’s 5.80 mark this year: Alex Smith of the Kansas City Chiefs in 2014, whose average pass traveled just 5.58 yards through the air. And no QB in the entire sample had a season in which he threw a smaller share of passes 20 or more yards downfield than Brees’s 3.3 percent rate so far in 2020. (Even for Smith in 2014, 5.4 percent of his passes traveled at least 20 yards.)
Few QBs sling it shorter than Drew Brees Fewest air yards per pass attempt and smallest share of attempts that went 20+ yards in the air for qualified NFL passers, 2006-2020 Fewest air yards/att. Fewest 20+ Air yd att. Player Year Team AY/ATT Player Year Team 20+ Att. % Smith 2014 KC 5.58 Brees 2020 NO 3.3% Brees 2020 NO 5.80 Smith 2014 KC 5.4 Da. Carr 2006 HOU 5.86 Tannehill 2020 TEN 5.9 Bradford 2016 MIN 6.24 Jones 2020 NYG 6.1 De. Carr 2019 OAK 6.24 Garoppolo 2019 SF 6.1 Jones 2020 NYG 6.26 Da. Carr 2006 HOU 6.1 Flacco 2019 DEN 6.28 Ryan 2013 ATL 6.1 Garoppolo 2020 SF 6.31 Fitzpatrick 2020 MIA 6.6 Smith 2015 KC 6.32 Bradford 2010 STL 6.9 Brees 2017 NO 6.36 Newton 2018 CAR 7.0 Source: ESPN Stats & Information Group
The success levels for other short-tossing quarterbacks have varied. Ryan Tannehill of the Titans, for instance, doesn’t go deep much more often than Brees, and he is also having a very good season. (Tannehill’s average pass travels nearly 2 yards farther than Brees’s, though, because he seldom targets receivers behind the line of scrimmage.) But Smith was mediocre in 2014 — and that’s more often been the case for the QBs who rank highly on both lists above. Excluding Brees’s 2020, the average QBR for passers with both an average air yards per attempt below 7.00 and fewer than 8 percent of passes traveling at least 20 air yards was 51.1, which is well below the overall league average of 60.4 since 2006.
Brees is a lot better than the typical short passer Highest total QBR in a season among passers with fewer than 7.0 air yards per attempt and fewer than 8 percent of passes traveling at 20+ air yards, 2006-2020 Player Year Team Air Yds/Att. 20+ AY Att. % Total QBR Drew Brees 2020 NO 5.80 3.3% 80.7 Drew Brees 2019 NO 6.42 7.4 73.3 Matt Ryan 2013 ATL 6.61 6.1 67.5 Derek Carr 2019 OAK 6.24 7.6 64.1 Alex Smith 2015 KC 6.32 7.7 61.1 Jimmy Garoppolo 2019 SF 6.39 6.1 60.8 Daniel Jones 2020 NYG 6.26 6.1 60.6 Jason Campbell 2008 WSH 6.76 7.7 58.5 Jon Kitna 2010 DAL 6.53 7.5 52.9 Christian Ponder 2012 MIN 6.43 7.2 52.6 Alex Smith 2014 KC 5.58 5.4 52.0 Sam Bradford 2010 STL 6.39 6.9 46.9 Joe Flacco 2017 BAL 6.37 7.3 46.7 David Carr 2006 HOU 5.86 6.1 45.8 Alex Smith 2013 KC 6.54 7.9 45.0 Cam Newton 2020 NE 6.68 7.6 42.5 Sam Darnold 2020 NYJ 6.97 7.5 41.1 Chad Henne 2013 JAC 6.46 7.4 34.9 Jimmy Clausen 2010 CAR 6.52 7.7 13.8 NFL average 2006-2020 8.23 11.6 60.4 Source: ESPN Stats & Information Group
By QBR, Brees is doing better this year than in 2019 — another very short-passing season by historical standards — despite throwing deep even less (and despite not having Thomas, who set the all-time NFL record for receptions in a season last year). New Orleans’s leading receiver this season — by no small margin — has been Kamara, who’s tracking to be one of only five primary running backs to lead a team in receiving yards since 2006, according to ESPN’s Stats & Information Group.
RB-led receiving corps are rare — and usually bad Primary running backs to lead an NFL team in receiving yards in a season since 2006, with team ranks in expected points added (EPA) Team EPA Ranks Player Year Team Rec. YPG All Offense Pass Offense Alvin Kamara 2020 NO 76.7 7 8 Christian McCaffrey 2018 CAR 54.2 14 17 Duke Johnson 2017 CLE 43.3 29 32 Danny Woodhead 2015 SD 47.2 14 6 Jamaal Charles 2013 KC 46.2 18 20 Source: ESPN Stats & Information Group
Similar to how most extreme short passers struggle to post efficient numbers, the other offenses whose receiving corps were led by running backs tended to grade as mediocre, according to schedule-adjusted expected points added (EPA). This is consistent with research that shows passes to running backs as being less valuable than those directed to other positions. Simply put, it’s difficult to build an effective offense around short throws that disproportionately target players coming out of the backfield.
And yet, the Saints are defying all that this season, with Brees passing well and the New Orleans offense once again ranking among the top 10 in EPA, as it has every season since Brees arrived in 2006. Some of it comes down to Kamara’s unique talent as a receiver; no other running back is even close to being as valuable a pass catcher, according to Football Outsiders’ Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement metric. A lot of it has to do with coach Sean Payton and offensive coordinator Pete Carmichael engineering efficient throws: According to the NFL’s Next Gen Stats, 51 percent of Brees’s passes this season have been characterized as “open” or “wide-open,” meaning no defender was within 3 yards of the pass target when it arrived; only three qualified passers (Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen and Jimmy Garoppolo) made more of their throws to receivers so lightly covered.
And, of course, that figure is also aided by Brees’s own vast knowledge of the Saints’ offensive system. Although Next Gen Stats estimates that Brees and Garoppolo have made the “easiest” throws of any QB this season — each has an expected completion percentage of about 71 percent based on the depth (and other characteristics) of their throws — Brees has somehow managed to exceed that expectation, completing his passes at a rate 1.9 percentage points higher than we’d expect of an average QB with the same set of throws. Despite his lack of arm strength and disinclination to throw any deeper than 20 yards downfield, Brees has added value through sheer accuracy and ability to read defenses. It has been a magic act worth appreciating.
The real question, however, will be if Brees can keep it up over the rest of the season. That’s an especially pressing issue now, with Thomas still struggling to return and leading wide receiver Emmanuel Sanders on the COVID-19 reserve list. The Chicago Bears, New Orleans’s Week 8 opponent, have the NFL’s sixth-ranked defense by EPA (and are fourth-best against the pass), so they’ll surely be a tough opponent for Brees and the Saints’ short-passing scheme. They’ll also serve as a test for whether New Orleans can live up to its solid Super Bowl odds, despite deploying such a limited passing attack.
FiveThirtyEight’s NFL Elo ratings How each team ranks through Week 7 of the 2020 season, according to our quarterback-adjusted predictions Chance To … Rk Team Starting QB QB Rk* Elo Rating Proj. Record Make Playoffs Win Division Win SB 1 Chiefs Mahomes 2 1712 13-3 >99% 93% 20% 2 Ravens Jackson 5 1659 12-4 94 40 10 3 Buccaneers Brady 10 1652 11-5 87 64 12 4 Steelers Roethlisberger 13 1646 13-3 98 54 10 5 Seahawks Wilson 3 1625 11-5 82 43 8 6 Packers Rodgers 11 1618 11-5 88 67 8 7 Titans Tannehill 7 1617 11-5 90 75 6 8 Saints Brees 1 1603 10-6 67 34 5 9 49ers Garoppolo 26 1600 9-7 47 11 3 10 Rams Goff 14 1598 10-6 68 23 4 11 Bills Allen 9 1573 10-6 84 79 3 12 Cardinals Murray 4 1563 10-6 65 23 3 13 Colts Rivers 18 1556 9-7 52 24 2 14 Browns Mayfield 21 1553 10-6 79 6 2 15 Bears Foles 25 1541 10-6 68 30 2 16 Raiders Carr 8 1513 8-8 36 5 <1 17 Patriots Newton 22 1495 7-9 22 14 <1 18 Broncos Lock 30 1486 7-9 13 <1 <1 19 Eagles Wentz 19 1484 7-8-1 64 64 <1 20 Chargers Herbert 15 1475 7-9 15 <1 <1 21 Falcons Ryan 12 1462 4-12 <1 <1 <1 22 Panthers Bridgewater 16 1455 7-9 8 2 <1 23 Vikings Cousins 27 1455 5-11 4 <1 <1 24 Lions Stafford 17 1452 7-9 15 2 <1 25 Texans Watson 6 1445 5-11 2 <1 <1 26 Dolphins Tagovailoa 28 1418 7-9 15 7 <1 27 Bengals Burrow 20 1383 4-11-1 <1 <1 <1 28 Washington Allen 29 1380 5-11 21 20 <1 29 Giants Jones 24 1356 4-12 5 5 <1 30 Jets Darnold✚ 31 1314 2-14 <1 <1 <1 31 Jaguars Minshew† 23 1301 3-13 <1 <1 <1 32 Cowboys Dalton✚ 32 1274 5-11 11 11 <1 *Ranking among Week 8 starters, according to our QB Elo ratings. ✚ Starter is currently injured and may not play. †Starter could be replaced for performance reasons. Simulations as of Oct. 28, 2020. Source: ESPN
Looking ahead: Among Week 8’s slate of games, we’ve got our eye on Sunday afternoon’s clash between the Steelers and Ravens. Both teams have strong playoff odds — each sits in excess of 94 percent — but the contest could have huge implications on not just the AFC North derby but also the all-important race for the AFC’s top overall seed. Pittsburgh is undefeated and has dominated with its defense, though Ben Roethlisberger (Elo’s 13th-ranked QB) may be starting to show his age after below-average games in three of his past four starts. On Baltimore’s side, it has recovered from a 14-point loss to Kansas City in Week 3 to win three straight, with QB Lamar Jackson playing more like himself in the recent win over Philadelphia — though the Eagles’ late comeback against what is (on paper) one of the NFL’s top defenses was concerning. Elo likes the Ravens at home here, giving them a 60 percent chance at the victory, but the teams are pretty evenly matched, and it should be an excellent defensive battle. Elo’s spread: Baltimore -3
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