fivethirthyeight--2020-07-27--Who’s Who In The NBA Bubble: The Inner-Circle Contenders

We ’ re back for the final installment of our NBA bubble preview series .
Last week , we reintroduced the teams that the NBA brought along for the ride in order to maximize games and revenue , as well as the teams whose playoff spots are secure but who nevertheless seem like long shots to win the title .
Today , we ’ re going to finish up by talking about the inner-circle contenders .
This time around , we ’ ll dig a bit more into each team ’ s potential title odds — and why our projections @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The league ’ s most eclectic team is back , and our projections love it .
The short-ball Rockets are one of the biggest beneficiaries of the season ’ s resumption at Disney World , which neutralizes home-court advantage and eliminates road games the Rockets would have played against higher seeds .
We have them finishing fifth in the West after the seeding games , so they would likely have been the road team in every playoff series .
Houston ’ s full-strength roster rating is third among teams invited to the restart @ @ @ @ @ @ @ fifth .
That explains much of why we give the Rockets better chances than the teams we have finishing both third ( the Denver Nuggets , eighth in full-strength roster and seventh in playoff roster ) and fourth ( the Utah Jazz , 12th in both full-strength and playoff ) in the West .
39-26 , 6th in East , 14 games back FiveThirtyEight predictions : Clinched playoffs , 33 % East , 14 % Finals Projected Seeding W-L : 6-2 ; 45-28 ( 4th in East ) COVID-19 : Three unnamed members @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Sixers are the primary beneficiaries of the neutral-site tournament .
Philadelphia ’ s chances of winning the NBA Finals rose by 3.7 percentage points in the bubble version , compared to the version of our projections that played out a standard postseason ( with four home games for higher seeds and three for lower seeds in a seven-game series ) .
The bump was more than double that of the next-closest team , the aforementioned Rockets , at 1.7 percentage points .
The Sixers also benefit from the four-plus months that Ben Simmons @ @ @ @ @ @ @ With a healthy Simmons , we project them to go 6-2 in the seeding games , jumping from their current slot at sixth in the East to fourth .
They ’ ll presumably also benefit if Joel Embiid hits coach Brett Brown ’ s target of 38 minutes per game during the postseason , putting one of the league ’ s best players on the floor nearly 80 percent of the time .
Philly ’ s strong playoff-roster rating ( third among restart teams , behind only the two L.A. squads ) is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ chances , but not having to travel to Boston , Toronto or Milwaukee at any point also helps — especially given that the Sixers went a disastrous 10-24 on the road this season .
The Clippers are just 1.5 games ahead of the Nuggets in the race for the No .
2 seed in the West .
The season series between the two teams is currently tied at one game apiece , which means whichever team wins the penultimate game of the regular season ( Aug. 12 ) will own the tiebreaker .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ chance to win that contest and project that they ’ ll maintain the No .
2 spot .
L.A. has the highest full-strength and playoff-roster ratings in our projections by decent margins , and it seems like the only thing keeping them from being our title favorites is that they ’ ll have a tougher road to the Finals than the Lakers .
Also , that roster might not exactly be at full strength right away .
Lou Williams left the bubble briefly on Friday and will have to miss two games as @ @ @ @ @ @ @ both Montrezl Harrell and Patrick Beverley also left the bubble — the former to “ tend to a family emergency ” and the latter to “ address an emergency personal matter ” — though both have returned and may be ready for L.A. ’ s first game on Thursday .
Shamet and Ivica Zubac had been absent from the bubble , but both arrived in Orlando over the weekend .
Boston ’ s schedule got a bit tougher inside the bubble than it was set to be , had the regular season continued @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the easier slates in the league .
Three games back of the second-seeded Raptors , the Celtics currently own the tiebreaker thanks to a 2-1 series lead , but the two teams play each other again on Aug. 7 .
Despite favoring Boston in that clash ( 57 percent chance of victory ) , we project the Celtics to finish a game behind the Raptors after the seeding games and thus open the playoffs against the Pacers , rather than the Magic .
And yet , we still give the C ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Eastern Conference and the NBA Finals .
That ’ s largely due to the Celtics ’ advantage in both full-strength and playoff-roster rating , where they check in sixth and the Raptors are in ninth ( full-strength ) and eighth ( playoffs ) .
Without the Raptors getting the benefit of home-court advantage , we ’ d favor the Celtics in the likely event that the two teams meet in the second round of the playoffs .
46-18 , 2nd in East , 6.5 games back FiveThirtyEight predictions : Clinched playoffs , 8 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Seeding W-L : 4-4 ; 50-22 ( 2nd in East ) COVID-19 : No public reports or announcements Famously , our CARMELO-based projection system favored the Raptors over the Warriors in last year ’ s NBA Finals .
Though several of us expressed skepticism , the Raptors nevertheless defied ( or lived up to ? )
the odds to win the first title in franchise history .
Accordingly , FiveThirtyEight named the new player projection system after them .
Unfortunately , RAPTOR does not feel as strongly about the 2019-20 Raptors as CARMELO @ @ @ @ @ @ @ project the Raptors to maintain their hold on the No .
2 seed in the Eastern Conference after the seeding games despite the fact that they face the toughest schedule of any team invited to the restart , but as previously mentioned , we would favor the Celtics in a head-to-head series .
49-14 , 1st in West FiveThirtyEight predictions : Clinched playoffs , 45 % West , 31 % Finals Projected Seeding W-L : 5-3 ; 54-17 ( 1st in West ) COVID-19 : Two unnamed players ( now symptom-free ) Our @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the Lakers essentially have the No .
1 seed in the Western Conference sewn up .
There is more than enough cushion for them to figure out how to integrate J.R. Smith , who was signed to replace Avery Bradley after Bradley opted out of participating in the restart .
They have a 5.5-game lead on the second-place Clippers , and despite facing the third-toughest seeding-game schedule , we project them to comfortably hold onto the top seed .
As such , they ’ ll be afforded a first-round series against either a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ place , or b ) the winner of a play-in round between the Nos .
8 and 9 seeds .
Needless to say , it will likely prove easier for them to advance past Memphis , Portland , New Orleans , Sacramento , San Antonio or Phoenix than it will for the Clips to advance past our projected opponent for them , Dallas .
Our projections feel slightly worse about the Lakers ’ chances of winning both the West and the title than they would have if the playoffs were taking place with @ @ @ @ @ @ @ but they still maintain a sizable advantage over the Clippers in both categories .
We ’ d also favor the Lakers in a head-to-head series against their most likely Eastern Conference opponent ( the Bucks ) because of their superior playoff-roster rating .
Unlike the Clippers and Bucks , the Lakers are not dealing with any players currently recovering from a publicly confirmed coronavirus case , and while Dwight Howard might be putting others at greater risk with his aversion to mask-wearing , there have yet to be any announced cases from players @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the bubble .
53-12 , 1st in East FiveThirtyEight predictions : Clinched playoffs , 36 % East , 14 % Finals Projected Seeding W-L : 6-2 ; 59-14 ( 1st in East ) COVID-19 : Eric Bledsoe ( returned to practice ) , Pat Connaughton ( announced ) Milwaukee enters the bubble with both the NBA ’ s best defense and its reigning ( and probable repeat ) Most Valuable Player .
The Bucks have a 6.5-game lead on the second-place Raptors , and they can wrap up the top spot with any @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that equals three , given that they already own the tiebreaker over Toronto by virtue of a 2-0 season-series lead .
Milwaukee obviously benefited from the interrupted season in that both Giannis Antetokounmpo and Khris Middleton were afforded time to deal with the injuries they were experiencing at the time the league shut down .
Two rotation players testing positive for COVID-19 is not ideal , but with the sizable gap between the Bucks and their closest competitors , they have time to get everyone back to full strength .
The Bucks have @ @ @ @ @ @ @ league for much of the season , so the questions about their potential to win the title are largely strategy-based .
Will coach Mike Budenholzer , who is famously averse to changing tactics , be willing to play his stars for heavier minutes ?
Will he be willing to fight left-handed and try out different strategies on offense and/or defense if the Bucks ’ usual way of doing things isn ’ t yielding optimal results ?
The answer to both of those questions last season was “ no , ” and it arguably @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Budenholzer maintained even after the team ’ s Game 6 loss that playing Giannis more was not the solution .
Our projections would consider the Bucks underdogs in a head-to-head series against either of the L.A. teams , should they reach the Finals ; a heavier dose of Giannis than usual sure seems like their best chance of overcoming that .
Maybe it is and maybe it isn ’ t , but the Bucks will never know if Bud doesn ’ t give it a try .

We’re back for the final installment of our NBA bubble preview series. Last week, we reintroduced the teams that the NBA brought along for the ride in order to maximize games and revenue, as well as the teams whose playoff spots are secure but who nevertheless seem like long shots to win the title. Today, we’re going to finish up by talking about the inner-circle contenders. This time around, we’ll dig a bit more into each team’s potential title odds — and why our projections shake out the way they do.
Houston Rockets
40-24, 6th in West, 9.5 games back
FiveThirtyEight predictions: Clinched playoffs, 12% West, 7% Finals
Projected Seeding W-L: 5-3; 45-27 (5th in West)
COVID-19: Russell Westbrook (announced), Luc Mbah a Moute (announced)
The league’s most eclectic team is back, and our projections love it. The short-ball Rockets are one of the biggest beneficiaries of the season’s resumption at Disney World, which neutralizes home-court advantage and eliminates road games the Rockets would have played against higher seeds. We have them finishing fifth in the West after the seeding games, so they would likely have been the road team in every playoff series.
Houston’s full-strength roster rating is third among teams invited to the restart, and its playoff roster rating is fifth. That explains much of why we give the Rockets better chances than the teams we have finishing both third (the Denver Nuggets, eighth in full-strength roster and seventh in playoff roster) and fourth (the Utah Jazz, 12th in both full-strength and playoff) in the West.
Philadelphia 76ers
39-26, 6th in East, 14 games back
FiveThirtyEight predictions: Clinched playoffs, 33% East, 14% Finals
Projected Seeding W-L: 6-2; 45-28 (4th in East)
COVID-19: Three unnamed members of the organization (announced)
The Sixers are the primary beneficiaries of the neutral-site tournament. Philadelphia’s chances of winning the NBA Finals rose by 3.7 percentage points in the bubble version, compared to the version of our projections that played out a standard postseason (with four home games for higher seeds and three for lower seeds in a seven-game series). The bump was more than double that of the next-closest team, the aforementioned Rockets, at 1.7 percentage points.
[Related: Who’s Who In The NBA Bubble — The Teams Just Along For The Ride]
The Sixers also benefit from the four-plus months that Ben Simmons had to heal his back injury. With a healthy Simmons, we project them to go 6-2 in the seeding games, jumping from their current slot at sixth in the East to fourth. They’ll presumably also benefit if Joel Embiid hits coach Brett Brown’s target of 38 minutes per game during the postseason, putting one of the league’s best players on the floor nearly 80 percent of the time. Philly’s strong playoff-roster rating (third among restart teams, behind only the two L.A. squads) is the primary driver of its surprisingly high chances, but not having to travel to Boston, Toronto or Milwaukee at any point also helps — especially given that the Sixers went a disastrous 10-24 on the road this season.
Los Angeles Clippers
44-20, 2nd in West, 5.5 games back
FiveThirtyEight predictions: Clinched playoffs, 35% West, 23% Finals
Projected Seeding W-L: 5-3; 49-23 (2nd in West)
COVID-19: Landry Shamet (reported)
The Clippers are just 1.5 games ahead of the Nuggets in the race for the No. 2 seed in the West. The season series between the two teams is currently tied at one game apiece, which means whichever team wins the penultimate game of the regular season (Aug. 12) will own the tiebreaker. We give the Clips a 62 percent chance to win that contest and project that they’ll maintain the No. 2 spot.
L.A. has the highest full-strength and playoff-roster ratings in our projections by decent margins, and it seems like the only thing keeping them from being our title favorites is that they’ll have a tougher road to the Finals than the Lakers. Also, that roster might not exactly be at full strength right away. Lou Williams left the bubble briefly on Friday and will have to miss two games as part of a 10-day quarantine. And both Montrezl Harrell and Patrick Beverley also left the bubble — the former to “tend to a family emergency” and the latter to “address an emergency personal matter” — though both have returned and may be ready for L.A.’s first game on Thursday. Shamet and Ivica Zubac had been absent from the bubble, but both arrived in Orlando over the weekend.
Boston Celtics
43-21, 3rd in East, 9.5 games back
FiveThirtyEight predictions: Clinched playoffs, 22% East, 7% Finals
Projected Seeding W-L: 6-2; 49-23 (3rd in East)
COVID-19: Marcus Smart (cleared)
Boston’s schedule got a bit tougher inside the bubble than it was set to be, had the regular season continued on, but it remains one of the easier slates in the league. Three games back of the second-seeded Raptors, the Celtics currently own the tiebreaker thanks to a 2-1 series lead, but the two teams play each other again on Aug. 7. Despite favoring Boston in that clash (57 percent chance of victory), we project the Celtics to finish a game behind the Raptors after the seeding games and thus open the playoffs against the Pacers, rather than the Magic.
[Related: Our NBA Predictions]
And yet, we still give the C’s a better chance at winning both the Eastern Conference and the NBA Finals. That’s largely due to the Celtics’ advantage in both full-strength and playoff-roster rating, where they check in sixth and the Raptors are in ninth (full-strength) and eighth (playoffs). Without the Raptors getting the benefit of home-court advantage, we’d favor the Celtics in the likely event that the two teams meet in the second round of the playoffs.
Toronto Raptors
46-18, 2nd in East, 6.5 games back
FiveThirtyEight predictions: Clinched playoffs, 8% East, 2% Finals
Projected Seeding W-L: 4-4; 50-22 (2nd in East)
COVID-19: No public reports or announcements
Famously, our CARMELO-based projection system favored the Raptors over the Warriors in last year’s NBA Finals. Though several of us expressed skepticism, the Raptors nevertheless defied (or lived up to?) the odds to win the first title in franchise history. Accordingly, FiveThirtyEight named the new player projection system after them.
Unfortunately, RAPTOR does not feel as strongly about the 2019-20 Raptors as CARMELO did about the 2018-19 team. We project the Raptors to maintain their hold on the No. 2 seed in the Eastern Conference after the seeding games despite the fact that they face the toughest schedule of any team invited to the restart, but as previously mentioned, we would favor the Celtics in a head-to-head series.
Los Angeles Lakers
49-14, 1st in West
FiveThirtyEight predictions: Clinched playoffs, 45% West, 31% Finals
Projected Seeding W-L: 5-3; 54-17 (1st in West)
COVID-19: Two unnamed players (now symptom-free)
Our current favorites to win the title, the Lakers essentially have the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference sewn up. There is more than enough cushion for them to figure out how to integrate J.R. Smith, who was signed to replace Avery Bradley after Bradley opted out of participating in the restart. They have a 5.5-game lead on the second-place Clippers, and despite facing the third-toughest seeding-game schedule, we project them to comfortably hold onto the top seed. As such, they’ll be afforded a first-round series against either a) the team that finishes in eighth place, or b) the winner of a play-in round between the Nos. 8 and 9 seeds. Needless to say, it will likely prove easier for them to advance past Memphis, Portland, New Orleans, Sacramento, San Antonio or Phoenix than it will for the Clips to advance past our projected opponent for them, Dallas.
[Related: Who’s Who In The NBA Bubble — The Potential Party-Crashers]
Our projections feel slightly worse about the Lakers’ chances of winning both the West and the title than they would have if the playoffs were taking place with the usual home and road schedules, but they still maintain a sizable advantage over the Clippers in both categories. We’d also favor the Lakers in a head-to-head series against their most likely Eastern Conference opponent (the Bucks) because of their superior playoff-roster rating. Unlike the Clippers and Bucks, the Lakers are not dealing with any players currently recovering from a publicly confirmed coronavirus case, and while Dwight Howard might be putting others at greater risk with his aversion to mask-wearing, there have yet to be any announced cases from players or staffers who cleared quarantine after entering the bubble.
Milwaukee Bucks
53-12, 1st in East
FiveThirtyEight predictions: Clinched playoffs, 36% East, 14% Finals
Projected Seeding W-L: 6-2; 59-14 (1st in East)
COVID-19: Eric Bledsoe (returned to practice), Pat Connaughton (announced)
Milwaukee enters the bubble with both the NBA’s best defense and its reigning (and probable repeat) Most Valuable Player. The Bucks have a 6.5-game lead on the second-place Raptors, and they can wrap up the top spot with any combination of Bucks wins and Raptors losses that equals three, given that they already own the tiebreaker over Toronto by virtue of a 2-0 season-series lead. Milwaukee obviously benefited from the interrupted season in that both Giannis Antetokounmpo and Khris Middleton were afforded time to deal with the injuries they were experiencing at the time the league shut down. Two rotation players testing positive for COVID-19 is not ideal, but with the sizable gap between the Bucks and their closest competitors, they have time to get everyone back to full strength.
The Bucks have looked like the best team in the league for much of the season, so the questions about their potential to win the title are largely strategy-based. Will coach Mike Budenholzer, who is famously averse to changing tactics, be willing to play his stars for heavier minutes? Will he be willing to fight left-handed and try out different strategies on offense and/or defense if the Bucks’ usual way of doing things isn’t yielding optimal results? The answer to both of those questions last season was “no,” and it arguably cost the Bucks the conference finals series. Budenholzer maintained even after the team’s Game 6 loss that playing Giannis more was not the solution. Our projections would consider the Bucks underdogs in a head-to-head series against either of the L.A. teams, should they reach the Finals; a heavier dose of Giannis than usual sure seems like their best chance of overcoming that. Maybe it is and maybe it isn’t, but the Bucks will never know if Bud doesn’t give it a try.
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fivethirthyeight--2020-07-27--Do You Buy That … Coronavirus Will Be What Makes Or Breaks Trump’s Re-election Prospects?

Do You Buy That … Coronavirus Will Be What Makes Or Breaks Trump ’ s Re-election Prospects ?


fivethirthyeight--2020-07-27--Why Florida Could Go Blue In 2020

Why Florida Could Go Blue In 2020

This is the second in a series of articles examining the politics and demographics of 2020 ’ s expected swing states .
Electorally , Florida bounces around like a beach ball .
In 2008 and 2012 , as Americans nationwide backed Barack Obama for president , Florida voted Democratic too .
But in 2016 , when Donald Trump reclaimed the White House for the Republicans , Florida switched its allegiance to the GOP .
Indeed , the Sunshine State has voted for the national winner in each of the past six presidential elections .
But in 2018 , Florida stopped @ @ @ @ @ @ @ year for Democrats nationwide , which saw them net 40 House seats and seven governorships , the “ blue wave ” stopped at Florida ’ s sandy beaches .
Although the national political environment leaned almost 9 percentage points in Democrats ’ favor , Republican Rick Scott defeated incumbent Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson by 0.1 points , and Republican Ron DeSantis defeated Democrat Andrew Gillum by 0.4 points in the open-seat race for governor .
The results prompted some pundits to relabel Florida a “ red state ” going into the pivotal 2020 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to a degree : Florida has long been a slightly red state .
Since 2004 , it has consistently voted 3 or 4 points more Republican than the nation as a whole in presidential elections .
( Indeed , polls of Florida are currently 0.9 points better for President Trump than national polls , according to FiveThirtyEight ’ s polling averages . )
But could what happened in 2018 — when Florida was so much redder than the nation that it was out of reach for Democrats , even in a wave election @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s true that , on the surface , Nelson and Gillum barely improved upon Hillary Clinton ’ s 1.2-point loss in Florida in 2016 .
Accounting for the much bluer national environment , that would imply either that Florida is immune to shifts in the national mood or that the state lurched to the right sometime in the intervening two years .
But as the map below shows , Nelson actually performed from 3 to 14 points better than Clinton in a majority of Florida counties , even though he lost many @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
( Gillum ’ s map told a similar story , so we ’ re not showing it , as of the two 2018 Democratic candidates , Nelson — a moderate white man in his 70s — is a better stand-in for the party ’ s presumptive 2020 presidential nominee , Joe Biden . )
This is important because it underscores that the state is not “ wave-proof ” ; instead , it ’ s made up of some complex coalitions that we ’ ll dive into more momentarily .
Ultimately , Scott @ @ @ @ @ @ @ did significantly better than Trump in a handful of big counties , virtually erasing Democratic gains elsewhere .
Most glaringly , Miami-Dade County — Florida ’ s most populated county — and Osceola County voted more than 8 points more Republican in the 2018 Senate race than in the 2016 presidential race .
In addition , Nelson underperformed Clinton by 6 points in the much less populous Hendry County .
What ’ s so special about these counties ?
They are Florida ’ s three majority-Hispanic counties , and it turns out that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 2018 than in 2016 .
According to exit polls , Hispanic voters voted for Nelson 54 percent to 45 percent ( the gubernatorial numbers were virtually identical ) , two years after they supported Clinton 62 percent to 35 percent .
So the big question for Democrats in 2020 is whether Biden can return to Clinton ’ s level of support among Hispanics .
It ’ s hard to say for sure , as the reasons for Democrats ’ 2018 underperformance in Florida are as diverse as the state ’ s Hispanic population @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ( who make up 32 percent of Osceola County ) strongly dislike Trump , but they actually gave Scott high marks for focusing on their community in the wake of Hurricane Maria .
But with Trump back on the ballot in 2020 , there ’ s good reason to think that their Republican sympathies will evaporate once again .
According to Carlos Odio , the co-founder of data firm EquisLabs , a private poll recently gave Biden a 41-point lead among Puerto Rican voters in Florida , which would be close to the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Decisions poll immediately before the 2016 election .
Democrats may not be able to solve their problems so easily with Cuban Americans , though , who make up the plurality ( 36 percent ) of crucial Miami-Dade County .
Cuban Americans are the rare bloc of Hispanic voters who truly lean Republican ; in fact , they outright backed Trump in 2016 .
Trump is estimated to have won between 50 percent and 58 percent of Florida ’ s Cuban American vote in 2016 , and this group has been even more Republican @ @ @ @ @ @ @ vote strongly Republican in elections for lower offices as well .
For instance , the Florida International University Cuba Poll , which has measured public opinion among Cuban Americans for almost 30 years , found that Scott and DeSantis each won about 70 percent of the Cuban American vote in Miami-Dade .
This was likely instrumental in Miami-Dade ’ s rightward shift in 2018 : An analysis of the 2016 and 2018 results by Democratic data consultant Matthew Isbell found that the Miami-Dade precincts that swung hardest toward the GOP were its most @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Biden , Trump ’ s crusades against socialism and hardline stance against Cuba and its close ally Venezuela may have elevated his standing among Cuban Americans .
An EquisLabs poll from November 2019 found that 63 percent of Cuban American voters in Florida would vote to reelect Trump ( though , of course , that was long before the pandemic started dragging down his polling numbers across the board ) .
That wouldn ’ t be as bad for Democrats as 2018 , but EquisLabs estimates that level of support would be worth @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in Florida than in 2016 .
However , even if Trump makes inroads with Cuban Americans , some historical trends suggest that Miami-Dade will not be as red as it was in 2018 .
For reasons ranging from disproportionately low Democratic turnout in midterms to the Cuban American habit of voting more Republican in nonpresidential races , the margin in Miami-Dade is almost always less Democratic in midterm years than in the presidential years on either side .
So Miami-Dade ’ s right turn in 2018 was actually completely predictable — and it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The real question mark is whether Miami-Dade will follow the pattern of recent years in 2020 and be bluer than it was in 2016 .
For reasons ranging from generational change ( Cuban Americans born in the U.S. are more likely than their immigrant parents and grandparents to vote Democratic ) to the ubiquitous urban and suburban realignment , the county has voted more Democratic in every successive presidential election since 2004 .
Of course , there ’ s always the possibility that this trend won ’ t continue .
One final point @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s large population of older Americans .
Of all the states in the union , Florida has the largest proportion of residents age 65 or older ( 20 percent ) — and polls indicate that Biden is winning among these voters nationally .
That ’ s unusual for a Democrat these days , too , which speaks to Biden ’ s current electoral strength .
There is evidence that Biden isn ’ t doing quite as well among older Floridians ( Trump was leading among them by 8 points in both a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ New York Times Upshot/Siena College poll ) , but the former vice president is still doing better than either Clinton ( who lost among voters age 65 or older by 17 points ) or Nelson ( who lost among them by 14 ) did , according to the exit polls .
If this trend holds , it has the potential to help Biden all across the state , but especially in counties with lots of retirement communities .
Two of these counties are where Democrats also lost ground in the 2018 Senate race @ @ @ @ @ @ @ redder in 2018 than in 2016 ) and Sumter ( which was 3 points redder ) .
Collier , on the southwest coast , is home to Naples and is 31 percent age 65 or older .
And Sumter , the location of famously massive retirement community The Villages , is a whopping 56 percent age 65 or older .
Unlike Miami-Dade and Osceola , these counties might really be drifting toward Republicans in the long term , but Biden may have what it takes to temporarily reverse that trend .
In summary @ @ @ @ @ @ @ believe that Biden will be able to hold onto ( or build upon ) Nelson ’ s gains in the blue counties in the map above , thanks to the current pro-Democratic national environment .
And with the help of Hispanic voters , older voters , or both , it ’ s also not hard to imagine Biden returning to Clinton ’ s levels of support in some of the counties that drifted red in 2018 .
However , Trump is fighting to build upon his 2016 support among these voters too , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a hard time winning the state — as 2018 showed .
The bottom line : The outlook is bright for Democrats in the Sunshine State .
On average , polls of Florida show Biden leading Trump by a healthy 7.1 points .
If that holds , it would be a blowout by Florida standards — the widest margin for a presidential candidate since George H.W .
Bush won by 22 points in 1988 .
But , of course , if Florida does go blue again in 2020 , it would put the state @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a beach ball once again .

This is the second in a series of articles examining the politics and demographics of 2020’s expected swing states.
Electorally, Florida bounces around like a beach ball. In 2008 and 2012, as Americans nationwide backed Barack Obama for president, Florida voted Democratic too. But in 2016, when Donald Trump reclaimed the White House for the Republicans, Florida switched its allegiance to the GOP. Indeed, the Sunshine State has voted for the national winner in each of the past six presidential elections.
But in 2018, Florida stopped following national trends. In a great year for Democrats nationwide, which saw them net 40 House seats and seven governorships, the “blue wave” stopped at Florida’s sandy beaches. Although the national political environment leaned almost 9 percentage points in Democrats’ favor, Republican Rick Scott defeated incumbent Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson by 0.1 points, and Republican Ron DeSantis defeated Democrat Andrew Gillum by 0.4 points in the open-seat race for governor. The results prompted some pundits to relabel Florida a “red state” going into the pivotal 2020 election.
[Related: How Arizona Became A Swing State]
They’re right, to a degree: Florida has long been a slightly red state. Since 2004, it has consistently voted 3 or 4 points more Republican than the nation as a whole in presidential elections. (Indeed, polls of Florida are currently 0.9 points better for President Trump than national polls, according to FiveThirtyEight’s polling averages.) But could what happened in 2018 — when Florida was so much redder than the nation that it was out of reach for Democrats, even in a wave election — happen again in 2020?
It’s true that, on the surface, Nelson and Gillum barely improved upon Hillary Clinton’s 1.2-point loss in Florida in 2016. Accounting for the much bluer national environment, that would imply either that Florida is immune to shifts in the national mood or that the state lurched to the right sometime in the intervening two years. But as the map below shows, Nelson actually performed from 3 to 14 points better than Clinton in a majority of Florida counties, even though he lost many of her voters elsewhere in the state. (Gillum’s map told a similar story, so we’re not showing it, as of the two 2018 Democratic candidates, Nelson — a moderate white man in his 70s — is a better stand-in for the party’s presumptive 2020 presidential nominee, Joe Biden.) This is important because it underscores that the state is not “wave-proof”; instead, it’s made up of some complex coalitions that we’ll dive into more momentarily.
Ultimately, Scott (and DeSantis) won because they did significantly better than Trump in a handful of big counties, virtually erasing Democratic gains elsewhere. Most glaringly, Miami-Dade County — Florida’s most populated county — and Osceola County voted more than 8 points more Republican in the 2018 Senate race than in the 2016 presidential race. In addition, Nelson underperformed Clinton by 6 points in the much less populous Hendry County.
What’s so special about these counties? They are Florida’s three majority-Hispanic counties, and it turns out that Hispanic voters voted significantly less Democratic in 2018 than in 2016. According to exit polls, Hispanic voters voted for Nelson 54 percent to 45 percent (the gubernatorial numbers were virtually identical), two years after they supported Clinton 62 percent to 35 percent. So the big question for Democrats in 2020 is whether Biden can return to Clinton’s level of support among Hispanics.
[Related: How Popular Is President Donald Trump?]
It’s hard to say for sure, as the reasons for Democrats’ 2018 underperformance in Florida are as diverse as the state’s Hispanic population. For example, Puerto Rican Floridians (who make up 32 percent of Osceola County) strongly dislike Trump, but they actually gave Scott high marks for focusing on their community in the wake of Hurricane Maria. But with Trump back on the ballot in 2020, there’s good reason to think that their Republican sympathies will evaporate once again. According to Carlos Odio, the co-founder of data firm EquisLabs, a private poll recently gave Biden a 41-point lead among Puerto Rican voters in Florida, which would be close to the 46-point lead Clinton enjoyed in a Latino Decisions poll immediately before the 2016 election.
Democrats may not be able to solve their problems so easily with Cuban Americans, though, who make up the plurality (36 percent) of crucial Miami-Dade County. Cuban Americans are the rare bloc of Hispanic voters who truly lean Republican; in fact, they outright backed Trump in 2016. Trump is estimated to have won between 50 percent and 58 percent of Florida’s Cuban American vote in 2016, and this group has been even more Republican in past presidential elections. They still vote strongly Republican in elections for lower offices as well. For instance, the Florida International University Cuba Poll, which has measured public opinion among Cuban Americans for almost 30 years, found that Scott and DeSantis each won about 70 percent of the Cuban American vote in Miami-Dade. This was likely instrumental in Miami-Dade’s rightward shift in 2018: An analysis of the 2016 and 2018 results by Democratic data consultant Matthew Isbell found that the Miami-Dade precincts that swung hardest toward the GOP were its most Cuban American precincts.
[Related: The Latest Political Polls Collected By FiveThirtyEight]
And unfortunately for Biden, Trump’s crusades against socialism and hardline stance against Cuba and its close ally Venezuela may have elevated his standing among Cuban Americans. An EquisLabs poll from November 2019 found that 63 percent of Cuban American voters in Florida would vote to reelect Trump (though, of course, that was long before the pandemic started dragging down his polling numbers across the board). That wouldn’t be as bad for Democrats as 2018, but EquisLabs estimates that level of support would be worth a net of 90,000 more Trump votes in Florida than in 2016.
However, even if Trump makes inroads with Cuban Americans, some historical trends suggest that Miami-Dade will not be as red as it was in 2018. For reasons ranging from disproportionately low Democratic turnout in midterms to the Cuban American habit of voting more Republican in nonpresidential races, the margin in Miami-Dade is almost always less Democratic in midterm years than in the presidential years on either side. So Miami-Dade’s right turn in 2018 was actually completely predictable — and it might not mean anything for 2020.
The real question mark is whether Miami-Dade will follow the pattern of recent years in 2020 and be bluer than it was in 2016. For reasons ranging from generational change (Cuban Americans born in the U.S. are more likely than their immigrant parents and grandparents to vote Democratic) to the ubiquitous urban and suburban realignment, the county has voted more Democratic in every successive presidential election since 2004.
Of course, there’s always the possibility that this trend won’t continue.
One final point in Biden’s favor is Florida’s large population of older Americans. Of all the states in the union, Florida has the largest proportion of residents age 65 or older (20 percent) — and polls indicate that Biden is winning among these voters nationally. That’s unusual for a Democrat these days, too, which speaks to Biden’s current electoral strength. There is evidence that Biden isn’t doing quite as well among older Floridians (Trump was leading among them by 8 points in both a recent CBS News/YouGov poll and the latest New York Times Upshot/Siena College poll), but the former vice president is still doing better than either Clinton (who lost among voters age 65 or older by 17 points) or Nelson (who lost among them by 14) did, according to the exit polls.
If this trend holds, it has the potential to help Biden all across the state, but especially in counties with lots of retirement communities. Two of these counties are where Democrats also lost ground in the 2018 Senate race: Collier (which was 4 points redder in 2018 than in 2016) and Sumter (which was 3 points redder). Collier, on the southwest coast, is home to Naples and is 31 percent age 65 or older. And Sumter, the location of famously massive retirement community The Villages, is a whopping 56 percent age 65 or older. Unlike Miami-Dade and Osceola, these counties might really be drifting toward Republicans in the long term, but Biden may have what it takes to temporarily reverse that trend.
[Related: Our 2020 National Polling Averages]
In summary, it’s not unreasonable to believe that Biden will be able to hold onto (or build upon) Nelson’s gains in the blue counties in the map above, thanks to the current pro-Democratic national environment. And with the help of Hispanic voters, older voters, or both, it’s also not hard to imagine Biden returning to Clinton’s levels of support in some of the counties that drifted red in 2018. However, Trump is fighting to build upon his 2016 support among these voters too, and without them, Biden will have a hard time winning the state — as 2018 showed.
The bottom line: The outlook is bright for Democrats in the Sunshine State. On average, polls of Florida show Biden leading Trump by a healthy 7.1 points. If that holds, it would be a blowout by Florida standards — the widest margin for a presidential candidate since George H.W. Bush won by 22 points in 1988. But, of course, if Florida does go blue again in 2020, it would put the state in a very familiar role: as a beach ball once again.
Confidence Interval: Democrats could win 60 Senate seats | FiveThirtyEight


fivethirthyeight--2020-07-27--How The Pandemic Could Force A Generation Of Mothers Out Of The Workforce

For the past few months , Alicia Wertz has barely seen her husband .
Since schools closed in their northern Alabama town in March , they ’ ve been single-mindedly focused on a single goal : making sure that someone was watching their three kids .
At first , Wertz tried working from home .
But she wasn ’ t getting anything done , so they tried splitting the hours : Wertz ’ s husband watches the children in the morning , then a sitter comes to relieve him in the afternoon until Wertz takes over when she returns from @ @ @ @ @ @ @ not working , we ’ re by ourselves with the children .
It almost feels like you ’ re a single parent .
All you do is go to work and care for the kids , ” Wertz said .
In her mind , Wertz is counting down the days until schools reopen .
But there ’ s a nagging worry at the back of her head — what if they don ’ t open at all ?
“ The thought of [ my kids ] not going back in the fall is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ spoke in early July .
“ It raises this question of — if one of us has to stay home with the children , whose job is more important ?
I think it was something that we did have conversations about before , but COVID-19 has made it much worse.
” [ Related : Where The Latest COVID-19 Models Think We ’ re Headed — And Why They Disagree ] Wertz isn ’ t the only working mother for whom the thought of the fall calendar sparks both relief and dread .
And @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and long-lasting — effects on the careers of countless women across the country .
Studies have shown that women already shoulder much of the burden of caring for and educating their children at home ; now , they ’ re also more likely than men to have lost their jobs thanks to the pandemic .
And the collapse of the child care and public education infrastructure that so many parents rely on will only magnify these problems , even pushing some women out of the labor force entirely .
“ We ’ re @ @ @ @ @ @ @ we ’ ve made for women over the past few decades , and especially women of color , ” said Melissa Boteach , Vice President for Income Security and Child Care/Early Learning at the National Women ’ s Law Center .
The crux of the issue : Child care just isn ’ t as available as it was before the pandemic .
Data provided to FiveThirtyEight by the job-search website Indeed shows that child-care services have been much slower to hire again ( a useful proxy for re-opening ) than other areas of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ news that many schools will remain closed in the fall , and it ’ s easy to see the crisis at hand .
If polling is any indication , the vast majority of the fallout is being weathered by mothers , who were already doing the majority of household work even before the pandemic began .
In 2015 , the Pew Research Center asked parents about how they divide family responsibilities when both work full-time .
Some tasks were split relatively evenly : Twenty percent of respondents said the mother disciplined children more @ @ @ @ @ @ @ more , and 61 percent said that responsibility was shared equally .
For every task , however , more respondents reported that the mother carried a greater amount of the load than those who said the father did — including areas involving managing children ’ s schedules , caring for children when they ’ re sick and handling household chores .
Along similar lines , Pew also found in a poll from 2019 that 80 percent of women living with a partner who had children did the primary grocery shopping and meal-preparation duties @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the Bureau of Labor Statistics ’ American Time Use Survey — which tracks the average amount of time people spend per day on different categories of activity — married mothers with full-time jobs spent 56 percent more time doing childcare and housework than corresponding fathers .
By contrast , fathers spent more time on work-related tasks , travel and leisure activities .
Even under normal circumstances , it was difficult for mothers of young children to balance work against the heavy burden of child care .
The BLS found that in 2019 , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ with children under age 6 was 66.4 percent , well below the rate for women with children age 6 or older ( 76.8 percent ) .
According to a 2014 survey by the U.S. Census Bureau , 61 percent of women who were out of a job and have young children listed “ caretaking ” as a reason why they were not employed .
Forty-six percent of women who were out of a job and have older children said the same .
To put that in perspective , only 10 percent of all @ @ @ @ @ @ @ caregiving as a reason .
A similar strain is apparent in working mothers ’ decisions to take unpaid leave , or even part-time jobs instead of full-time ones .
According to that same census survey from 2014 , 30 percent of women who were part-time workers with young children — and 19 percent of women with older children — said caretaking was a reason they worked part-time .
( Among part-time workers , the overall share is just 7 percent . )
Now , with schools closed and day cares struggling to remain @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that the best — or perhaps the only — choice for their family and their own sanity is to reduce their hours , or even press “ pause ” on their career .
“ Sometimes I ’ ll get to a point where I ’ m like , ‘ I ’ m so tired , I ’ ll have to go part-time to make it all work , ’ ” said Lee Dunham , a lawyer who lives in Delaware .
Since the pandemic started , Dunham has been mostly responsible for her @ @ @ @ @ @ @ means her work day doesn ’ t start until 8 p.m. and usually wraps around 2 a.m.. “ I ’ m just basically not getting enough sleep because I ’ m watching the baby 40 hours a week and doing my job 40 hours a week .
It ’ s really rough.
” Dunham feels she ’ s lucky to have an understanding employer who told her earlier this year that they ’ d be cutting all of their employees some slack because of the pandemic .
But at the time , she @ @ @ @ @ @ @ would be up and running by mid-summer .
“ It might be that I have to dial back my hours , which of course means I will get paid less.
” This kind of calculus already depresses women ’ s wages and makes it harder for their careers to progress .
According to the National Women ’ s Law Center , mothers are typically only paid 71 cents for every dollar paid to fathers .
In fact , a lot of recent research into the gender pay gap has found that much of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on working mothers .
For instance , a 2018 analysis of data from Denmark — which offers a counterpoint to the United States in terms of social safety net , yet still has a very large and persistent gender wage gap — found that women ’ s earnings drop significantly after having their first child , while men ’ s earnings aren ’ t affected at all .
And crucially , several studies in the U.S. and other countries have found that the trajectory of wages for women who don ’ t have @ @ @ @ @ @ @ they have kids or not ( although some research has actually suggested that becoming a father can contribute to men ’ s career success ) .
This disparity is particularly intense for women of color .
Black mothers are paid only 54 cents for every dollar paid to a white father , according to NWLC ; for Latina mothers , it ’ s 46 cents .
Low-income women of color are also among the likeliest to have lost their jobs in the current recession .
And they ’ re disproportionately likely to be @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to come back to work , sometimes in unsafe working conditions , for low wages .
“ We ’ re in a vicious cycle where we need child care as one of the tools to get women to equal pay , and yet unequal pay is one of the primary reasons that women are pushed into staying home , ” Boteach said .
[ Related : How Americans View The Coronavirus Crisis And Trump ’ s Response ] Leaving the workforce , even if it ’ s just for a year or two @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a woman for the rest of her life , even depressing her earnings in retirement .
Finding a new job after a few years on hiatus can be very difficult for mothers , who may be stereotyped as less serious about their careers because they took time off to be with their children .
One study from 2007 found that mothers were perceived to be less competent than fathers , and their recommended salaries were also lower .
During this pandemic , you can already see the disproportionate impact taking shape .
The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 16.2 percent , higher than it has been in any month since at least 1948 , before dropping to 11.7 percent in June — a percentage point higher than the rate for men ( 10.6 percent ) .
Even more striking , labor force participation for women dipped to 54.7 percent in April before rising to 56.1 percent last month .
Both of those numbers are reminiscent of the rates for women from the 1980s — back when the very notion of women in the workforce was still gaining momentum .
Wertz has @ @ @ @ @ @ @ at least for now .
“ I worked incredibly hard to get to where I am now , ” she said .
“ I essentially paid my way through school with no family support .
For years I worked entirely too hard for not enough money.
” Already , she worries that she ’ s perceived differently in the workplace because she ’ s a mother .
“ Even if it was just a year , I know how that gap would look on my resume , ” she said .
“ If @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , I just don ’ t know if I ’ d recover from it.
” How a 60-year-old drug became our best hope for saving people with COVID-19

For the past few months, Alicia Wertz has barely seen her husband. Since schools closed in their northern Alabama town in March, they’ve been single-mindedly focused on a single goal: making sure that someone was watching their three kids. At first, Wertz tried working from home. But she wasn’t getting anything done, so they tried splitting the hours: Wertz’s husband watches the children in the morning, then a sitter comes to relieve him in the afternoon until Wertz takes over when she returns from work.
“When we’re not working, we’re by ourselves with the children. It almost feels like you’re a single parent. All you do is go to work and care for the kids,” Wertz said.
In her mind, Wertz is counting down the days until schools reopen. But there’s a nagging worry at the back of her head — what if they don’t open at all? “The thought of [my kids] not going back in the fall is devastating,” Wertz said when we spoke in early July. “It raises this question of — if one of us has to stay home with the children, whose job is more important? I think it was something that we did have conversations about before, but COVID-19 has made it much worse.”
[Related: Where The Latest COVID-19 Models Think We’re Headed — And Why They Disagree]
Wertz isn’t the only working mother for whom the thought of the fall calendar sparks both relief and dread. And what comes next could have disproportionate — and long-lasting — effects on the careers of countless women across the country. Studies have shown that women already shoulder much of the burden of caring for and educating their children at home; now, they’re also more likely than men to have lost their jobs thanks to the pandemic. And the collapse of the child care and public education infrastructure that so many parents rely on will only magnify these problems, even pushing some women out of the labor force entirely.
“We’re in danger of erasing the limited gains we’ve made for women over the past few decades, and especially women of color,” said Melissa Boteach, Vice President for Income Security and Child Care/Early Learning at the National Women’s Law Center.
The crux of the issue: Child care just isn’t as available as it was before the pandemic. Data provided to FiveThirtyEight by the job-search website Indeed shows that child-care services have been much slower to hire again (a useful proxy for re-opening) than other areas of the economy:
Combine that with the news that many schools will remain closed in the fall, and it’s easy to see the crisis at hand. If polling is any indication, the vast majority of the fallout is being weathered by mothers, who were already doing the majority of household work even before the pandemic began.
In 2015, the Pew Research Center asked parents about how they divide family responsibilities when both work full-time. Some tasks were split relatively evenly: Twenty percent of respondents said the mother disciplined children more, 17 percent said the father disciplined more, and 61 percent said that responsibility was shared equally. For every task, however, more respondents reported that the mother carried a greater amount of the load than those who said the father did — including areas involving managing children’s schedules, caring for children when they’re sick and handling household chores.
Moms usually shoulder more of the load at home Share of parents in households with two full-time working parents who say each parent does more work in a given category, according to a Pew poll Share of parents who say… Category Mother does more Father does more Work split equally Managing children’s schedules/activities 54% 6% 39% Taking care of sick children 47 6 47 Handling household chores, etc. 31 9 59 Playing/doing activities with children 22 13 64 Disciplining children 20 17 61 Based on 2015 poll by Pew Research, with a sample size of 531 respondents. The sample included male/female married couples only. Source: Pew Research center
Along similar lines, Pew also found in a poll from 2019 that 80 percent of women living with a partner who had children did the primary grocery shopping and meal-preparation duties for their families. And according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ American Time Use Survey — which tracks the average amount of time people spend per day on different categories of activity — married mothers with full-time jobs spent 56 percent more time doing childcare and housework than corresponding fathers. By contrast, fathers spent more time on work-related tasks, travel and leisure activities.
All that extra time moms spend really adds up Daily time spent doing various activities by married parents of children under 18 who both worked full-time, according to the American Time Use Survey Hours spent per day Activity Mothers Fathers Diff. Household activities 1.87 1.23 +0.64 Physical care for children 0.59 0.28 0.31 Child care – other 0.36 0.22 0.14 Child-related travel 0.25 0.13 0.12 Education-related activities 0.10 0.06 0.04 Reading with children 0.05 0.03 0.02 Playing/hobbies with children 0.27 0.29 -0.02 Total 3.49 2.24 1.25 Survey data covers the combined years of 2015 through 2019 and includes both opposite- and same-sex couples. Source: bls.gov
Even under normal circumstances, it was difficult for mothers of young children to balance work against the heavy burden of child care. The BLS found that in 2019, the labor force participation rate for women with children under age 6 was 66.4 percent, well below the rate for women with children age 6 or older (76.8 percent). According to a 2014 survey by the U.S. Census Bureau, 61 percent of women who were out of a job and have young children listed “caretaking” as a reason why they were not employed. Forty-six percent of women who were out of a job and have older children said the same. To put that in perspective, only 10 percent of all respondents who were out of work gave caregiving as a reason.
A similar strain is apparent in working mothers’ decisions to take unpaid leave, or even part-time jobs instead of full-time ones. According to that same census survey from 2014, 30 percent of women who were part-time workers with young children — and 19 percent of women with older children — said caretaking was a reason they worked part-time. (Among part-time workers, the overall share is just 7 percent.)
Now, with schools closed and day cares struggling to remain open, even more women may conclude that the best — or perhaps the only — choice for their family and their own sanity is to reduce their hours, or even press “pause” on their career.
“Sometimes I’ll get to a point where I’m like, ‘I’m so tired, I’ll have to go part-time to make it all work,’” said Lee Dunham, a lawyer who lives in Delaware. Since the pandemic started, Dunham has been mostly responsible for her 10-month-old daughter during the day — which means her work day doesn’t start until 8 p.m. and usually wraps around 2 a.m.. “I’m just basically not getting enough sleep because I’m watching the baby 40 hours a week and doing my job 40 hours a week. It’s really rough.”
Dunham feels she’s lucky to have an understanding employer who told her earlier this year that they’d be cutting all of their employees some slack because of the pandemic. But at the time, she added, everyone was assuming day care would be up and running by mid-summer. “It might be that I have to dial back my hours, which of course means I will get paid less.”
Subscribe to our coronavirus podcast, PODCAST-19
This kind of calculus already depresses women’s wages and makes it harder for their careers to progress. According to the National Women’s Law Center, mothers are typically only paid 71 cents for every dollar paid to fathers. In fact, a lot of recent research into the gender pay gap has found that much of it is simply due to the constraints on working mothers. For instance, a 2018 analysis of data from Denmark — which offers a counterpoint to the United States in terms of social safety net, yet still has a very large and persistent gender wage gap — found that women’s earnings drop significantly after having their first child, while men’s earnings aren’t affected at all. And crucially, several studies in the U.S. and other countries have found that the trajectory of wages for women who don’t have children resembles those of men, whether they have kids or not (although some research has actually suggested that becoming a father can contribute to men’s career success).
This disparity is particularly intense for women of color. Black mothers are paid only 54 cents for every dollar paid to a white father, according to NWLC; for Latina mothers, it’s 46 cents. Low-income women of color are also among the likeliest to have lost their jobs in the current recession. And they’re disproportionately likely to be the child-care workers who are being asked to come back to work, sometimes in unsafe working conditions, for low wages. “We’re in a vicious cycle where we need child care as one of the tools to get women to equal pay, and yet unequal pay is one of the primary reasons that women are pushed into staying home,” Boteach said.
[Related: How Americans View The Coronavirus Crisis And Trump’s Response]
Leaving the workforce, even if it’s just for a year or two, has ripple effects that can follow a woman for the rest of her life, even depressing her earnings in retirement. Finding a new job after a few years on hiatus can be very difficult for mothers, who may be stereotyped as less serious about their careers because they took time off to be with their children. One study from 2007 found that mothers were perceived to be less competent than fathers, and their recommended salaries were also lower.
During this pandemic, you can already see the disproportionate impact taking shape. The unemployment rate for women in April was 16.2 percent, higher than it has been in any month since at least 1948, before dropping to 11.7 percent in June — a percentage point higher than the rate for men (10.6 percent). Even more striking, labor force participation for women dipped to 54.7 percent in April before rising to 56.1 percent last month. Both of those numbers are reminiscent of the rates for women from the 1980s — back when the very notion of women in the workforce was still gaining momentum.
Wertz has no plans to leave her job — at least for now. “I worked incredibly hard to get to where I am now,” she said. “I essentially paid my way through school with no family support. For years I worked entirely too hard for not enough money.” Already, she worries that she’s perceived differently in the workplace because she’s a mother. “Even if it was just a year, I know how that gap would look on my resume,” she said. “If I had to take that step back, I just don’t know if I’d recover from it.”
How a 60-year-old drug became our best hope for saving people with COVID-19


fivethirthyeight--2020-07-28--Voters Are Starting To Doubt Trump’s Reelection Chances

For months now , President Trump has trailed Joe Biden in the polls .
First , it was only a 5- or 6-percentage-point gap , but since the middle of June , that margin has widened to anywhere from 8 to 9 points , according to FiveThirtyEight ’ s national polling average .
But until very recently , voters didn ’ t seem all that convinced that Biden could win .
In poll after poll , comparatively more voters said they thought Trump would win reelection in November .
Now , though , that view may be shifting .
Over @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , the share of voters who said they expect Trump to win has fallen from about 45 percent to around 40 percent in polling by The Economist/YouGov , as the chart below shows , while Biden ’ s share has slowly ticked up to where Trump ’ s numbers are .
( Roughly a fifth of respondents still say they ’ re “ not sure.
” ) Trump ’ s decline may not seem that dramatic — and it ’ s not ; it ’ s only a few points lower — but @ @ @ @ @ @ @ June , he had trailed on this question only once since The Economist/YouGov first asked it in December .
But it ’ s not just the Economist/YouGov polling that supports this finding .
USA Today/Suffolk University found a more substantial drop in Trump ’ s numbers .
In late June , 41 percent of voters said they expected Trump to win , whereas 50 percent said the same in the pollster ’ s late October 2019 survey .
Conversely , 45 percent said Biden would win in June , an improvement from the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in October .
Republican pollster Echelon Insights has also observed a downward trend in Trump ’ s numbers : In a survey completed last week , 33 percent of likely voters said they expected Trump to win , which was down from 39 percent in the pollster ’ s June survey .
Meanwhile , the share who thought Biden would win ticked up to 43 percent in July from 40 percent in June .
On the whole , it seems voters are now less confident in Trump ’ s reelection chances , and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ be independent voters .
In USA Today/Suffolk ’ s June survey , 47 percent of independents picked Biden versus 35 percent who chose Trump , a reversal from the October 2019 poll , when 54 percent of independents expected Trump to win compared with 30 percent who said the Democratic nominee would win .
And looking across the Economist/YouGov data since early May , the share of independents who expect Trump to win has slid as well , from the low 40s to the mid-to-high 30s .
As for Democrats and Republicans , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ win , although that wasn ’ t always the case in 2016 , as many Republicans thought Hillary Clinton would win .
Nonetheless , that doesn ’ t seem to be happening in 2020 .
The Economist/YouGov and USA Today/Suffolk surveys found that Democratic voters are largely confident in Biden ’ s chances , while most Republicans believe that Trump will win .
However , since May , the Economist/YouGov polls show an increase in Democrats ’ belief in Biden ’ s chances and a slight downtick in Republicans ’ faith in Trump @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to diminished confidence in Trump ’ s reelection chances .
From mid-March to late May , the president usually led Biden in RealClearPolitics ’ average of betting odds : Trump ’ s chances hovered mostly around 50 percent , while Biden ’ s stood in the low 40s .
But in early June , Biden ’ s odds surged and outstripped Trump ’ s ; now the markets give Biden about a 60 percent chance of victory , while Trump ’ s chances have fallen into the mid-30s .
This change isn ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ mostly follow the polling averages .
But it ’ s also not difficult to intuit why more Americans might think Trump will lose the election now than before .
The president has consistently received poor marks for his handling of the coronavirus pandemic as well as for his handling of nationwide protests precipitated by the police killing of George Floyd in late May .
And Trump ’ s overall job approval rating has now dipped to around 40 percent in FiveThirtyEight ’ s tracker .
Simply put , past incumbent presidents with those @ @ @ @ @ @ @ reelection .
This is coupled with the fact that Biden ’ s national lead has grown , and his margin over Trump is now larger than Clinton ’ s edge at any point during the 2016 cycle .
Looking at the Electoral College , Biden also holds sizable leads in key battleground states , which could make it difficult for Trump to win despite those states ’ tending to lean more Republican than the country as a whole .
If anything , Trump ’ s surprise victory in 2016 is likely the biggest @ @ @ @ @ @ @ take a dimmer view of his reelection odds .
After all , he was behind in the polls four years ago and yet went on to win , so it ’ s understandable that even though the margins are larger now , some Americans might be taking an attitude of “ fool me once , shame on you ; fool me twice , shame on me.
” Tellingly , a Monmouth University survey of Pennsylvania voters earlier this month found that about a quarter of respondents believe there ’ s a “ secret @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s little evidence to support the idea that “ shy ” Trump voters exist .
All in all , though , voter expectations and election betting markets suggest that Americans increasingly view Biden as at least an even bet to win in November .
None of this means Biden will actually defeat Trump , but these shifts do suggest that the conventional wisdom is catching up to what the state and national election polls have been telling us about the race .
The electoral environment could very well change in the next three @ @ @ @ @ @ @ starting to coalesce around the idea that Trump is a real underdog to win reelection .

For months now, President Trump has trailed Joe Biden in the polls. First, it was only a 5- or 6-percentage-point gap, but since the middle of June, that margin has widened to anywhere from 8 to 9 points, according to FiveThirtyEight’s national polling average.
But until very recently, voters didn’t seem all that convinced that Biden could win. In poll after poll, comparatively more voters said they thought Trump would win reelection in November. Now, though, that view may be shifting.
Over the past two and a half months, the share of voters who said they expect Trump to win has fallen from about 45 percent to around 40 percent in polling by The Economist/YouGov, as the chart below shows, while Biden’s share has slowly ticked up to where Trump’s numbers are. (Roughly a fifth of respondents still say they’re “not sure.”)
Trump’s decline may not seem that dramatic — and it’s not; it’s only a few points lower — but it’s notable because prior to June, he had trailed on this question only once since The Economist/YouGov first asked it in December.
But it’s not just the Economist/YouGov polling that supports this finding. USA Today/Suffolk University found a more substantial drop in Trump’s numbers. In late June, 41 percent of voters said they expected Trump to win, whereas 50 percent said the same in the pollster’s late October 2019 survey. Conversely, 45 percent said Biden would win in June, an improvement from the 40 percent who picked the Democratic nominee in October. Republican pollster Echelon Insights has also observed a downward trend in Trump’s numbers: In a survey completed last week, 33 percent of likely voters said they expected Trump to win, which was down from 39 percent in the pollster’s June survey. Meanwhile, the share who thought Biden would win ticked up to 43 percent in July from 40 percent in June.
[Related: Our 2020 National Polling Averages]
On the whole, it seems voters are now less confident in Trump’s reelection chances, and the main driver of that shift may be independent voters. In USA Today/Suffolk’s June survey, 47 percent of independents picked Biden versus 35 percent who chose Trump, a reversal from the October 2019 poll, when 54 percent of independents expected Trump to win compared with 30 percent who said the Democratic nominee would win. And looking across the Economist/YouGov data since early May, the share of independents who expect Trump to win has slid as well, from the low 40s to the mid-to-high 30s.
As for Democrats and Republicans, they mostly say their respective nominee will win, although that wasn’t always the case in 2016, as many Republicans thought Hillary Clinton would win. Nonetheless, that doesn’t seem to be happening in 2020. The Economist/YouGov and USA Today/Suffolk surveys found that Democratic voters are largely confident in Biden’s chances, while most Republicans believe that Trump will win. However, since May, the Economist/YouGov polls show an increase in Democrats’ belief in Biden’s chances and a slight downtick in Republicans’ faith in Trump’s.
[Related: How Popular Is President Donald Trump?]
Betting markets also point to diminished confidence in Trump’s reelection chances. From mid-March to late May, the president usually led Biden in RealClearPolitics’ average of betting odds: Trump’s chances hovered mostly around 50 percent, while Biden’s stood in the low 40s. But in early June, Biden’s odds surged and outstripped Trump’s; now the markets give Biden about a 60 percent chance of victory, while Trump’s chances have fallen into the mid-30s.
This change isn’t necessarily surprising, as betting markets mostly follow the polling averages. But it’s also not difficult to intuit why more Americans might think Trump will lose the election now than before. The president has consistently received poor marks for his handling of the coronavirus pandemic as well as for his handling of nationwide protests precipitated by the police killing of George Floyd in late May. And Trump’s overall job approval rating has now dipped to around 40 percent in FiveThirtyEight’s tracker. Simply put, past incumbent presidents with those sorts of marks have failed to win reelection.
[Related: Our Pollster Ratings]
This is coupled with the fact that Biden’s national lead has grown, and his margin over Trump is now larger than Clinton’s edge at any point during the 2016 cycle. Looking at the Electoral College, Biden also holds sizable leads in key battleground states, which could make it difficult for Trump to win despite those states’ tending to lean more Republican than the country as a whole.
If anything, Trump’s surprise victory in 2016 is likely the biggest reason why more people don’t take a dimmer view of his reelection odds. After all, he was behind in the polls four years ago and yet went on to win, so it’s understandable that even though the margins are larger now, some Americans might be taking an attitude of “fool me once, shame on you; fool me twice, shame on me.” Tellingly, a Monmouth University survey of Pennsylvania voters earlier this month found that about a quarter of respondents believe there’s a “secret” Trump vote, although there’s little evidence to support the idea that “shy” Trump voters exist.
All in all, though, voter expectations and election betting markets suggest that Americans increasingly view Biden as at least an even bet to win in November. None of this means Biden will actually defeat Trump, but these shifts do suggest that the conventional wisdom is catching up to what the state and national election polls have been telling us about the race. The electoral environment could very well change in the next three months, but these indicators are all starting to coalesce around the idea that Trump is a real underdog to win reelection.
FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast: Biden’s VP Pick Could Be Days Away


fivethirthyeight--2020-07-28--Why Blaming China For The Pandemic Probably Won’t Help Trump Win

Last week , Fox News host Chris Wallace asked President Trump about his role in how the coronavirus pandemic has unfolded in the U.S. , where case numbers and the death toll are surging even as some other countries seem to be getting things under control .
But in response , Trump diverted responsibility , saying , “ It came from China .
They should ’ ve never let it escape.
” Blaming China for the pandemic isn ’ t a new tactic for the president .
In fact , it ’ s become a fairly common refrain as Trump @ @ @ @ @ @ @ accusing China of causing the coronavirus or exacerbating its spread .
And while it ’ s unlikely that this gambit will solve all of Trump ’ s problems — approval numbers for his handling of the pandemic continue to tank — there is at least some evidence that Americans may be more receptive than in the past to seeing China as the culprit , as opinions of the nation are now the worst they ’ ve been than any time in recent history .
In 2005 , Pew Research Center started regularly asking @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and at that point , Americans had a fairly positive opinion of the country ( 43 percent said they had a favorable view and 35 percent said they had an unfavorable one ) .
But in March of this year , as a number of states were issuing stay-at-home orders and millions of Americans were losing their jobs , the share of Pew respondents with a favorable view of China had fallen to 26 percent , while the share with a negative opinion sat at 66 percent .
Granted , public opinion of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , but this was still the lowest approval rating of the country since 2005 .
And it wasn ’ t just Pew who found Americans ’ opinions of China are deteriorating .
An NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll that ended in early June found that the majority of Americans held negative views of China , a 12-point uptick in unfavorable opinions since 2000 .
And an Economist/YouGov poll from late June found that 65 percent of Americans think China is unfriendly toward — or even an enemy of — the United States .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ with Americans , I spoke with Susan Shirk , a political science professor focused on U.S.-China policy at the University of California San Diego , and Michael Beckley , a political science professor at Tufts University .
They suggested that , even before the pandemic , China ’ s own actions in recent years — including its increased military presence in the South China Sea and its alleged violations of human rights and civil liberties — have been driving down Americans ’ opinion of the country .
Shirk told me she traces the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the 2008 financial crisis , as she argued that was when perceptions really started to change .
At the time , the U.S. economy was in shambles , but China ’ s economy emerged relatively unscathed .
Shirk said this contributed to China taking a more active role internationally , which hasn ’ t always been well-received .
Beckley argued that Xi Jinping ’ s presidency has also played a significant role in creating a negative public image of China because of how he has consolidated power while in office .
Shirk told @ @ @ @ @ @ @ thinks people feel increasingly negatively toward China because of “ the way China ’ s acting.
” At the same time , though , Trump has also exacerbated tensions with China by waging a nearly two-year trade war , imposing a series of tariffs on goods U.S. imports from the country .
Then , of course , the pandemic hit .
“ The coronavirus comes and is kind of like the final nail in the coffin , ” said Beckley .
And reports that China hid or downplayed severity of the pandemic in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ country ’ s global reputation .
“ [ Unfavorability of China ] has been an ongoing trend , but obviously , the current crisis makes it much , much worse , ” said Beckley .
In the U.S. , this has meant a rapid deterioration in public opinion toward China , with both Democrats and Republicans souring on the country .
In three recent polls , all taken after the pandemic reached the U.S. , about three-quarters of Republicans said they had an unfavorable opinion of China , felts negatively toward China or @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Among Democrats , the share who felt the same was anywhere from 44 percent to 62 percent .
It ’ s not clear , though , whether this increased negativity toward China presents a political opportunity for either Trump or presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden .
Some have argued that a firm anti-China stance could benefit either or both parties , though Beckley and Shirk were pretty skeptical that this would be a top issue for voters .
As you can see in the table below , the polling picture on who Americans @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
One poll shows Biden with a 8-point lead over Trump on this question , while two others give him a more modest lead , and one gives Trump a narrow advantage .
Additionally , given that the U.S. is dealing with a major health crisis , an economic downturn and protests across the country , Beckley and Shirk both told me they were somewhat dubious of the idea that either Republicans or Democrats would be able to rally voters around China .
Shirk said that unlike some other topics in the news @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ t as personal to voters .
And Beckley said that given each candidate ’ s track record with China , he didn ’ t think either Trump or Biden would be able to use the issue much to their advantage .
“ Even though the Trump administration can claim a lot of credit for altering U.S.-China policy and taking a harder-line turn , Trump has said a lot of nice things about Xi Jinping and has been willing to look the other way on China ’ s human rights violations , ” @ @ @ @ @ @ @ paint Biden as belonging to an administration that had a “ naive ” approach toward China , Beckley said , “ basically coddling a rising power.
” But China might play an outsized role in the election if Trump successfully uses it as a scapegoat for the pandemic , allowing him to shift some of the blame for his response onto China .
Brian Reisinger , a Republican strategist who advised Sen. Ron Johnson ’ s and former Governor Scott Walker ’ s reelection campaigns , says that “ there is a lot @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of its actions in the early days of the pandemic , but also because it plays on an existing hostility in important electoral states like Wisconsin , where almost 12 percent of the state ’ s jobs are in agriculture .
“ Farmers in rural Wisconsin have felt for years like they ’ re getting ripped off , whether its milk prices or any other type of commodity .
And one of the biggest offenders in the global marketplace is China , ” Reisinger said .
If Trump is able to shift the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ stanch the bleeding .
And it might work .
A Navigator poll from late April , for instance , tested multiple narratives about who ’ s to blame for the pandemic , asking voters which of two statements they agreed with more even if they didn ’ t fully agree with either .
When forced to choose between a statement that placed all the blame on Trump and one that put all the blame on China , respondents were essentially evenly divided , 49 to 51 , which is well within the poll @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that blamed both Trump and China got slightly more support , at 54 percent .
This suggests that at least some voters are open to an argument that gives China a significant share of the blame for the pandemic .
For Democrats , that means the party ’ s messaging on China will need to focus on what they see as Trump ’ s flawed argument on the coronavirus — arguing that he , not China , is to blame — and setting the record straight on Trump ’ s previous dealings with @ @ @ @ @ @ @ managing director of Democratic consulting firm Precision Strategies .
“ I think what you ’ ve already seen and will continue to see is the Biden campaign poking holes , ” Spahn said .
For example , Biden released an ad in April that criticized the president for accepting Jinping ’ s word that the coronavirus was under control and failing to get more American experts into China .
Of course , a lot has changed since April .
Now , more than 145,000 people have died from COVID-19 in the U.S. and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Trump is handling the coronavirus .
And who Americans believe is at fault has been shifting too .
Morning Consult has been asking registered voters who is most to blame for the spread of the coronavirus , and in late March , a plurality of voters , 36 percent , blamed the Chinese government , compared to just 23 percent who blamed Trump .
However , by late June , 35 percent of voters said they blamed Trump .
Granted , 31 percent still blamed the Chinese government ( and 20 percent said @ @ @ @ @ @ @ no opinion ) but the fact that Trump led on this metric instead of China certainly doesn ’ t bode well for him .
In the coming months , Republicans will likely double down on efforts to convince the public that China is to blame for the devastation caused by the coronavirus — Trump is routinely doing so in his coronavirus press briefings and other public appearances — but it ’ s not clear that this will be a winning argument .
But as long as some voters seem open to the idea @ @ @ @ @ @ @ seeing it come up as a diversionary tactic .

Last week, Fox News host Chris Wallace asked President Trump about his role in how the coronavirus pandemic has unfolded in the U.S., where case numbers and the death toll are surging even as some other countries seem to be getting things under control. But in response, Trump diverted responsibility, saying, “It came from China. They should’ve never let it escape.”
Blaming China for the pandemic isn’t a new tactic for the president. In fact, it’s become a fairly common refrain as Trump and other Republicans have doubled down on accusing China of causing the coronavirus or exacerbating its spread. And while it’s unlikely that this gambit will solve all of Trump’s problems — approval numbers for his handling of the pandemic continue to tank — there is at least some evidence that Americans may be more receptive than in the past to seeing China as the culprit, as opinions of the nation are now the worst they’ve been than any time in recent history.
[Related: How Popular Is President Donald Trump?]
In 2005, Pew Research Center started regularly asking Americans about their views on China, and at that point, Americans had a fairly positive opinion of the country (43 percent said they had a favorable view and 35 percent said they had an unfavorable one). But in March of this year, as a number of states were issuing stay-at-home orders and millions of Americans were losing their jobs, the share of Pew respondents with a favorable view of China had fallen to 26 percent, while the share with a negative opinion sat at 66 percent. Granted, public opinion of China has long been on the decline, but this was still the lowest approval rating of the country since 2005.
And it wasn’t just Pew who found Americans’ opinions of China are deteriorating. An NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll that ended in early June found that the majority of Americans held negative views of China, a 12-point uptick in unfavorable opinions since 2000. And an Economist/YouGov poll from late June found that 65 percent of Americans think China is unfriendly toward — or even an enemy of — the United States.
To understand why China is so unpopular with Americans, I spoke with Susan Shirk, a political science professor focused on U.S.-China policy at the University of California San Diego, and Michael Beckley, a political science professor at Tufts University. They suggested that, even before the pandemic, China’s own actions in recent years — including its increased military presence in the South China Sea and its alleged violations of human rights and civil liberties — have been driving down Americans’ opinion of the country.
Shirk told me she traces the changes in China’s behavior to the 2008 financial crisis, as she argued that was when perceptions really started to change. At the time, the U.S. economy was in shambles, but China’s economy emerged relatively unscathed. Shirk said this contributed to China taking a more active role internationally, which hasn’t always been well-received.
Subscribe to our coronavirus podcast, PODCAST-19
Beckley argued that Xi Jinping’s presidency has also played a significant role in creating a negative public image of China because of how he has consolidated power while in office.
Shirk told me that first and foremost, she thinks people feel increasingly negatively toward China because of “the way China’s acting.”
At the same time, though, Trump has also exacerbated tensions with China by waging a nearly two-year trade war, imposing a series of tariffs on goods U.S. imports from the country. Then, of course, the pandemic hit. “The coronavirus comes and is kind of like the final nail in the coffin,” said Beckley. And reports that China hid or downplayed severity of the pandemic in its early days are further harming the country’s global reputation. “[Unfavorability of China] has been an ongoing trend, but obviously, the current crisis makes it much, much worse,” said Beckley.
In the U.S., this has meant a rapid deterioration in public opinion toward China, with both Democrats and Republicans souring on the country. In three recent polls, all taken after the pandemic reached the U.S., about three-quarters of Republicans said they had an unfavorable opinion of China, felts negatively toward China or considered China unfriendly or an enemy. Among Democrats, the share who felt the same was anywhere from 44 percent to 62 percent.
It’s not clear, though, whether this increased negativity toward China presents a political opportunity for either Trump or presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden. Some have argued that a firm anti-China stance could benefit either or both parties, though Beckley and Shirk were pretty skeptical that this would be a top issue for voters.
As you can see in the table below, the polling picture on who Americans trust to handle China is pretty hazy. One poll shows Biden with a 8-point lead over Trump on this question, while two others give him a more modest lead, and one gives Trump a narrow advantage.
No strong consensus on who’d handle China better Share of voters who think Biden or Trump would be better at handling U.S. relations with China Pollster Polling Dates Biden Trump Morning Consult/Politico June 26-29 43% 37 Harvard CAPS/Harris June 17-18 54 46 NBC/WSJ May 28-June 2 40 43 Fox News May 17-20 43 37 Source: Polls
Additionally, given that the U.S. is dealing with a major health crisis, an economic downturn and protests across the country, Beckley and Shirk both told me they were somewhat dubious of the idea that either Republicans or Democrats would be able to rally voters around China. Shirk said that unlike some other topics in the news, U.S. relations with China just aren’t as personal to voters. And Beckley said that given each candidate’s track record with China, he didn’t think either Trump or Biden would be able to use the issue much to their advantage.
“Even though the Trump administration can claim a lot of credit for altering U.S.-China policy and taking a harder-line turn, Trump has said a lot of nice things about Xi Jinping and has been willing to look the other way on China’s human rights violations,” said Beckley. And Republicans will likely paint Biden as belonging to an administration that had a “naive” approach toward China, Beckley said, “basically coddling a rising power.”
But China might play an outsized role in the election if Trump successfully uses it as a scapegoat for the pandemic, allowing him to shift some of the blame for his response onto China. Brian Reisinger, a Republican strategist who advised Sen. Ron Johnson’s and former Governor Scott Walker’s reelection campaigns, says that “there is a lot of room to blame China” because of its actions in the early days of the pandemic, but also because it plays on an existing hostility in important electoral states like Wisconsin, where almost 12 percent of the state’s jobs are in agriculture. “Farmers in rural Wisconsin have felt for years like they’re getting ripped off, whether its milk prices or any other type of commodity. And one of the biggest offenders in the global marketplace is China,” Reisinger said.
[Related: Our 2020 National Polling Averages]
If Trump is able to shift the blame, it could help his campaign stanch the bleeding. And it might work. A Navigator poll from late April, for instance, tested multiple narratives about who’s to blame for the pandemic, asking voters which of two statements they agreed with more even if they didn’t fully agree with either. When forced to choose between a statement that placed all the blame on Trump and one that put all the blame on China, respondents were essentially evenly divided, 49 to 51, which is well within the poll’s confidence interval. A statement that blamed both Trump and China got slightly more support, at 54 percent. This suggests that at least some voters are open to an argument that gives China a significant share of the blame for the pandemic.
For Democrats, that means the party’s messaging on China will need to focus on what they see as Trump’s flawed argument on the coronavirus — arguing that he, not China, is to blame — and setting the record straight on Trump’s previous dealings with the country, said Mike Spahn, managing director of Democratic consulting firm Precision Strategies. “I think what you’ve already seen and will continue to see is the Biden campaign poking holes,” Spahn said. For example, Biden released an ad in April that criticized the president for accepting Xi’s word that the coronavirus was under control and failing to get more American experts into China.
[Related: Where The Latest COVID-19 Models Think We’re Headed — And Why They Disagree]
Of course, a lot has changed since April. Now, more than 145,000 people have died from COVID-19 in the U.S. and a majority of Americans disapprove of how Trump is handling the coronavirus. And who Americans believe is at fault has been shifting too. Morning Consult has been asking registered voters who is most to blame for the spread of the coronavirus, and in late March, a plurality of voters, 36 percent, blamed the Chinese government, compared to just 23 percent who blamed Trump. However, by late June, 35 percent of voters said they blamed Trump. Granted, 31 percent still blamed the Chinese government (and 20 percent said they didn’t know or had no opinion) but the fact that Trump led on this metric instead of China certainly doesn’t bode well for him.
In the coming months, Republicans will likely double down on efforts to convince the public that China is to blame for the devastation caused by the coronavirus — Trump is routinely doing so in his coronavirus press briefings and other public appearances — but it’s not clear that this will be a winning argument. But as long as some voters seem open to the idea, we can probably expect to keep seeing it come up as a diversionary tactic.
FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast: Biden’s VP Pick Could Be Days Away


fivethirthyeight--2020-07-28--MLB’s ‘Plan’ Didn’t Pan Out

MLB’s ‘Plan’ Didn’t Pan Out

We begin this week with baseball again , although not in the way that we had hoped .
In light of the news that more than a dozen personnel of the Miami Marlins have tested positive for COVID-19 , we examine what went wrong ( traveling in big groups across state lines is probably not a great idea right now ) , what structures need to be in place to prevent this from happening again ( maybe don ’ t let the players and coaches decide if they want to play ? )
and what the team outbreak means for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ bubble wand , NFL ) .
This might not be the tipping point for baseball — or for any other sport , really .
But it ’ s a warning again for how easily the virus can spread out of control and wreak real havoc on teams , leagues and individuals .
You know , like a virus .
Next , we travel to the Great White North , where the NHL is set to play a postseason tournament at two hub locations ; the Eastern Conference will form a bubble in Toronto @ @ @ @ @ @ @ There were definitely going to be teams disadvantaged by hockey ’ s unconventional postseason restructuring : a round robin for playoff seeding among the top four teams in each conference and best-of-five elimination series among the other eight teams .
The odds for who will actually hoist the Stanley Cup haven ’ t changed that dramatically since March — the Boston Bruins , Colorado Avalanche and Tampa Bay Lightning are all still the favorites .
But hockey can get weird , and we ’ re excited to see if , without any kind @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
8 seed can make a deep run through the playoffs .
Whatever happens , the NHL seems to have positioned itself to put on an entertaining show this year — and to draw in new hockey fans who might be excited for the release of , say , a legendary , ship-devouring cephalopod in 2021 .
Finally , Sara brings us a Rabbit Hole of extra innings and unearned stats .
While she starts off talking about how starting with a runner on second in the 10th inning has already proved embarrassing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the team dives into examples across sports of players being credited for something they didn ’ t do .
From offensive players getting credit for a defensive own goal in hockey to rim tip-ins in basketball , there are apparently lots of different ways to fail upwards in sports .
What we ’ re looking at this week : • What led the Marlins to play the Phillies after players tested positive .
• Why the NFL may want to reconsider starting a bubble .
• How the NHL is changing the look @ @ @ @ @ @

We begin this week with baseball again, although not in the way that we had hoped. In light of the news that more than a dozen personnel of the Miami Marlins have tested positive for COVID-19, we examine what went wrong (traveling in big groups across state lines is probably not a great idea right now), what structures need to be in place to prevent this from happening again (maybe don’t let the players and coaches decide if they want to play?) and what the team outbreak means for other major sports leagues (grab your bubble wand, NFL). This might not be the tipping point for baseball — or for any other sport, really. But it’s a warning again for how easily the virus can spread out of control and wreak real havoc on teams, leagues and individuals. You know, like a virus.
Next, we travel to the Great White North, where the NHL is set to play a postseason tournament at two hub locations; the Eastern Conference will form a bubble in Toronto, the Western Conference in Edmonton. There were definitely going to be teams disadvantaged by hockey’s unconventional postseason restructuring: a round robin for playoff seeding among the top four teams in each conference and best-of-five elimination series among the other eight teams. The odds for who will actually hoist the Stanley Cup haven’t changed that dramatically since March — the Boston Bruins, Colorado Avalanche and Tampa Bay Lightning are all still the favorites. But hockey can get weird, and we’re excited to see if, without any kind of home ice advantage, a No. 8 seed can make a deep run through the playoffs. Whatever happens, the NHL seems to have positioned itself to put on an entertaining show this year — and to draw in new hockey fans who might be excited for the release of, say, a legendary, ship-devouring cephalopod in 2021.
Finally, Sara brings us a Rabbit Hole of extra innings and unearned stats. While she starts off talking about how starting with a runner on second in the 10th inning has already proved embarrassing (especially for Shohei Ohtani), the team dives into examples across sports of players being credited for something they didn’t do. From offensive players getting credit for a defensive own goal in hockey to rim tip-ins in basketball, there are apparently lots of different ways to fail upwards in sports.
What we’re looking at this week:


fivethirthyeight--2020-07-28--How Biden’s VP Pick Could Shape Perceptions Of The Ticket Overall

In this week ’ s FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast , the crew discusses the upsides and downsides of Joe Biden ’ @ @ @ @ @ mate .
They also talk about the protests in Portland and President Trump ’ s @ @

How Biden’s VP Pick Could Shape Perceptions Of The Ticket Overall
In this week’s FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the crew discusses the upsides and downsides of Joe Biden’s choices for a running mate. They also talk about the protests in Portland and President Trump’s response.


fivethirthyeight--2020-07-28--Politics Podcast: Biden’s VP Announcement Could Come Any Day Now

Presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden could announce his running mate as soon as the end of this week , according @ @ @ @ @ laid out .
In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast , the crew discusses @ @ @ @ @ that could emerge from each of his potential choices .
They also ask why President @ @ @ @ @ into U.S. cities and how this relates to his reelection message .
FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast @ @ @ @ @ Pick Could Be Days Away You can listen to the episode by clicking the “ @ @ @ @ @ audio player above or by downloading it in iTunes , the ESPN App or your @ @ @ @ @ you are new to podcasts , learn how to listen .
The FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast @ @ @ @ @ .
Help new listeners discover the show by leaving us a rating and review on @ @ @ @ @ , question or suggestion for “ good polling vs. bad polling ” ?
Get in @ @ @ @ @ Twitter or in the comments .

Presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden could announce his running mate as soon as the end of this week, according to the time frame he laid out. In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast, the crew discusses the positive and negative narratives that could emerge from each of his potential choices. They also ask why President Trump is sending federal agents into U.S. cities and how this relates to his reelection message.
FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast: Biden’s VP Pick Could Be Days Away
You can listen to the episode by clicking the “play” button in the audio player above or by downloading it in iTunes, the ESPN App or your favorite podcast platform. If you are new to podcasts, learn how to listen.
The FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast is recorded Mondays and Thursdays. Help new listeners discover the show by leaving us a rating and review on iTunes. Have a comment, question or suggestion for “good polling vs. bad polling”? Get in touch by email, on Twitter or in the comments.