fivethirthyeight--2020-08-04--What You Need To Know About Today’s Elections In Kansas, Michigan And Missouri

Call it Super Tuesday III : The last big primary day of the season is upon us .
Today , millions of voters in Arizona , Kansas , Michigan , Missouri and Washington go to the polls — or , more likely , fill out an absentee ballot — to decide the Republican and Democratic nominees for congressional and state office .
There are over a dozen races worth watching today , but here ’ s the skinny on the most consequential .
Kansas ’ s Republican primary for U.S. Senate might be the biggest down-ballot primary of the year @ @ @ @ @ @ @ state , Democrats will have a real shot to win a Senate seat here for the first time since 1932 ( their longest drought anywhere in the nation ) if the GOP nominates former Kansas Secretary of State Kris Kobach .
For reasons ranging from his quixotic pursuit of voter fraud to his far-right views on immigration , legal troubles and an incompetent campaign , Kobach is such a weak candidate that he already lost the 2018 race for governor to Democrat Laura Kelly .
And internal GOP polling has reportedly found that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Democratic state Sen. Barbara Bollier this November if Kobach is the nominee for Senate .
That ’ s enough to put Kobach and Bollier in a virtual tie in the few public polls of the race we ’ ve seen recently .
That ’ s not to say Republicans don ’ t have an alternative .
The problem is , they have two : Rep. Roger Marshall and plumbing and HVAC mogul Bob Hamilton .
And thanks to his ability to self-fund , Hamilton had spent the most as of July 15 ( @ @ @ @ @ @ @ airwaves with campaign ads — and that ’ s on top of the years ’ worth of kitschy commercials his company is locally famous for .
However , Marshall has the support of the party establishment : In addition to the $ 2.3 million spent by Marshall ’ s campaign , the Senate Leadership Fund has spent $ 1.9 million to help him .
Marshall also has the endorsements of a prominent Kansas pro-life group , the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and retiring Sen. Pat Roberts .
But one big name has yet @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell has reportedly urged the president to endorse Marshall , but ( so far at least ) he ’ s been unwilling to lift a finger against Kobach , his ideological doppelgänger .
A new super PAC with ties to McConnell , Plains PAC , has spent heavily ( $ 3.3 million ) this month on negative ads associating Kobach with white supremacists .
But the biggest spender in the Republican primary is actually a super PAC with Democratic ties : Sunflower State PAC , which has spent $ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ attacking ” Kobach for being “ too conservative ” and actually attacking Marshall for being “ phony ” and “ soft on Trump.
” It ’ s not unheard of for parties to meddle in the other side ’ s primary like this to land their preferred opponent , but rarely have they gone so all-in on it .
Public polling of the race has been sparse ; the latest data we have is an internal Republican poll ( reported by Politico ) that put Marshall at 33 percent and Kobach at @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
But you know what we say about internal polls — and be extra careful with this one ; we don ’ t know which pollster even conducted it .
Remarkably , that is not the only race in Kansas in which a tainted nominee could cost Republicans the election in November .
Dogged by allegations of adultery , unwanted sexual advances , campaign-finance violations and inflating his résumé , Rep. Steve Watkins of the 2nd Congressional District was already facing a vigorous challenge from state Treasurer Jake LaTurner , the youngest statewide @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 32 .
Then , on July 14 , Watkins was charged with three felonies and a misdemeanor for voting from an address where he does not live .
The scandal prompted Watkins to step down from his committee assignments in Washington and neighboring Rep. Ron Estes to endorse LaTurner .
( However , Republican brass such as House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy have stuck with Watkins . )
Although this eastern Kansas district voted for Trump by 18 points in 2016 , it ’ s looking competitive this fall — and could be @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
According to a poll from LaTurner ’ s campaign ( mind you , hardly an unbiased source ) , Democratic Topeka Mayor Michelle De La Isla leads Watkins 50 percent to 37 percent , while De La Isla and LaTurner are locked in a virtual tie .
In Michigan , there are three interesting House primaries , but the one grabbing the most national attention is probably the rematch in the 13th Congressional District between Democratic Rep. Rashida Tlaib and Detroit City Council President Brenda Jones .
This is a race with @ @ @ @ @ @ @ After the resignation of Democratic Rep. John Conyers in December 2017 , the seat hosted two elections in November 2018 — a regular race for Congress and a special election to complete Conyers ’ s unexpired term .
Tlaib and Jones faced off in crowded primaries , with Tlaib ultimately winning the regular primary and Jones the special .
Jones tried to mount a write-in campaign against Tlaib last November but lost , meaning Jones represented the district for a few weeks before Tlaib took office .
Now , though , Tlaib and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ which might help Jones in the majority-Black , Detroit-based district as she is African American herself .
In 2018 , however , African American voters didn ’ t coalesce around a single candidate .
Instead , Tlaib , who is Palestinian American , came out on top .
However , this year Jones has the endorsement of every other Democrat who ran in 2018 , and she ’ s taken aim at Tlaib ’ s sometimes-controversial national profile as a member of “ The Squad , ” claiming Tlaib is prioritizing celebrity over @ @ @ @ @ @ @ though , Tlaib appears to have the upper hand , in part because she held a massive 40-to-1 cash-on-hand advantage over Jones as of July 15 .
Tlaib has also attacked Jones for not living in the district , and it probably helps Tlaib that Jones has her fair share of controversies , too , including alleged violations of state campaign finance laws .
A July survey from Target Insyghts found Tlaib ahead 52 percent to 24 percent , so it looks as if this is Tlaib ’ s race to lose .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ re also keeping an eye on the Republican primary for the 3rd Congressional District , a Grand Rapids-based seat currently held by Rep. Justin Amash , a Libertarian and former Republican who isn ’ t seeking reelection .
The principal GOP contenders are state Rep. Lynn Afendoulis and Peter Meijer , a U.S. Army veteran and scion of the family that owns the eponymous Midwestern retail chain — which probably helps with his name recognition .
Meijer appears to have the upper hand , too , as he has support from House Republican @ @ @ @ @ @ @ As of July 15 , he had raised a little over $ 1 million in contributions , compared to Afendoulis ’ s $ 625,000 .
Not to mention , he had a $ 400,000 to $ 140,000 cash edge for the home stretch ( Meijer has also loaned his campaign $ 475,000 ; Afendoulis has given hers $ 256,000 ) .
Still , Afendoulis argues she ’ s the only candidate with legislative experience and is the only conservative for the job , having earned an endorsement from Susan B. Anthony List , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s also questioned Meijer ’ s loyalty to Trump and the GOP , slamming him as a “ Never Trumper ” who helped Democrats by working for With Honor , a bipartisan group that aims to elect veterans to Congress .
A mid-June survey from Meijer ’ s campaign found him ahead of Afendoulis by 24 points , 41 percent to 17 percent , although we should take internal polls with a grain of salt .
Ultimately , the Republican winner will advance to face attorney Hillary Scholten , who is unopposed in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ carried this district by about 10 points in 2016 , 52 percent to 42 percent , election handicappers only give the GOP a narrow advantage in the race .
In the last district we ’ re watching , three Republicans are vying to replace retiring GOP Rep. Paul Mitchell in Michigan ’ s 10th District , which lies north of Detroit in “ The Thumb ” and is the most Republican-leaning seat in the state .
First up , state Rep. Shane Hernandez has enjoyed the backing of groups promoting limited government like @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Prosperity .
The Club ’ s political arm has spent about $ 1.5 million to help Hernandez , which includes ad buys featuring Mitchell endorsing Hernandez and emphasizing Hernandez ’ s support for Trump .
Meanwhile , businesswoman Lisa McClain had spent $ 1.6 million on the race as of July 15 — about four times as much as her opponents — and has run ads calling herself a conservative outsider and pro-Trump Republican .
McClain has also questioned Hernandez ’ s Trump bona fides by running an ad claiming that Hernandez opposed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ border wall in 2016 .
A super PAC backing McClain has also spent nearly $ 500,000 boosting her .
A third candidate , retired Air Force Brig .
Gen. Doug Slocum , has little outside support , but he ’ s stressed his early support for Trump and his extensive military service as a pilot in the Air Force and as commander of Selfridge Air National Guard Base in Macomb County , which is in the district .
The only recent survey of the race comes from Hernandez ’ s allies at the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ narrowly leading McClain by 6 points , 33 percent to 27 percent , with Slocum in a distant third at 10 percent .
Progressive challengers have already unseated incumbent Democratic congressmen in two districts this year — could Missouri ’ s 1st Congressional District be next ?
A Clay — either current Rep. Lacy Clay or his father , Bill — has represented St. Louis in Congress continuously since 1969 , but registered nurse and Black Lives Matter activist Cori Bush is determined to bring that streak to an end .
Clay defeated @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the Democratic primary here in 2018 , but it ’ s a much fairer fight this time around : Instead of being outspent more than three to one like she was in 2018 , Bush has spent nearly $ 442,000 this year to Clay ’ s more than $ 548,000 ( as of July 15 ) .
In addition , outside group Fight Corporate Monopolies has dropped six figures on an ad attacking Clay for fighting the Obama administration on Wall Street reform .
Generally , though , Clay has a pretty progressive @ @ @ @ @ @ @ liberal than 83 percent of Democrats in the current Congress , according to DW-Nominate , and , like Bush , supports both single-payer health care and the Green New Deal .
On the other hand , the nationwide movement against police violence may help Bush , as she first rose to prominence amid the 2014 protests over the shooting death of Michael Brown in Ferguson , which is in the district .
But whoever wins the primary will likely punch their ticket to Congress , since the 1st District is overwhelmingly Democratic .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ 2 , a ballot measure that would make Missouri the 39th state to expand Medicaid under the Affordable Care Act .
In the face of opposition from Republican governors and legislatures , proponents of Medicaid expansion have had a lot of success recently at the ballot box — Idaho , Nebraska and Utah passed it in 2018 , and Oklahoma did so just a month ago — and Missouri looks like it could follow suit .
A June poll from Remington Research Group found Amendment 2 leading 47 percent to 40 percent , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ had outraised opponents by the shocking margin of $ 10.1 million to less than $ 112,000 .
If the amendment passes , an estimated 230,000 people would newly become eligible for Medicaid starting in 2021 .
There are also several races we didn ’ t have room to cover — like an “ accidental congressman ’ s ” comeback attempt in Michigan ’ s 11th District and the question of whether Washington state will elect its first Black representative or a protégée of Bernie Sanders in the open 10th District .
Feel free @ @ @ @ @ @ @ full coverage up and down the ballot .
However , as usual , it could be several days before we get final results .
And if any of those results have an effect on who ’ s favored in November ( lookin ’ at you , Kansas ) , we ’ ll cover it for you right here on FiveThirtyEight.com .

Call it Super Tuesday III: The last big primary day of the season is upon us. Today, millions of voters in Arizona, Kansas, Michigan, Missouri and Washington go to the polls — or, more likely, fill out an absentee ballot — to decide the Republican and Democratic nominees for congressional and state office. There are over a dozen races worth watching today, but here’s the skinny on the most consequential.
Kansas
Kansas’s Republican primary for U.S. Senate might be the biggest down-ballot primary of the year. Although Kansas is normally a blood-red state, Democrats will have a real shot to win a Senate seat here for the first time since 1932 (their longest drought anywhere in the nation) if the GOP nominates former Kansas Secretary of State Kris Kobach.
For reasons ranging from his quixotic pursuit of voter fraud to his far-right views on immigration, legal troubles and an incompetent campaign, Kobach is such a weak candidate that he already lost the 2018 race for governor to Democrat Laura Kelly. And internal GOP polling has reportedly found that nearly 30 percent of Republicans would support Democratic state Sen. Barbara Bollier this November if Kobach is the nominee for Senate. That’s enough to put Kobach and Bollier in a virtual tie in the few public polls of the race we’ve seen recently.
That’s not to say Republicans don’t have an alternative. The problem is, they have two: Rep. Roger Marshall and plumbing and HVAC mogul Bob Hamilton. And thanks to his ability to self-fund, Hamilton had spent the most as of July 15 ($2.7 million), saturating the airwaves with campaign ads — and that’s on top of the years’ worth of kitschy commercials his company is locally famous for.
However, Marshall has the support of the party establishment: In addition to the $2.3 million spent by Marshall’s campaign, the Senate Leadership Fund has spent $1.9 million to help him. Marshall also has the endorsements of a prominent Kansas pro-life group, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and retiring Sen. Pat Roberts. But one big name has yet to weigh in: President Trump. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell has reportedly urged the president to endorse Marshall, but (so far at least) he’s been unwilling to lift a finger against Kobach, his ideological doppelgänger.
A new super PAC with ties to McConnell, Plains PAC, has spent heavily ($3.3 million) this month on negative ads associating Kobach with white supremacists. But the biggest spender in the Republican primary is actually a super PAC with Democratic ties: Sunflower State PAC, which has spent $5.3 million, including on an ad “attacking” Kobach for being “too conservative” and actually attacking Marshall for being “phony” and “soft on Trump.” It’s not unheard of for parties to meddle in the other side’s primary like this to land their preferred opponent, but rarely have they gone so all-in on it.
Public polling of the race has been sparse; the latest data we have is an internal Republican poll (reported by Politico) that put Marshall at 33 percent and Kobach at 30 percent, with Hamilton further behind. But you know what we say about internal polls — and be extra careful with this one; we don’t know which pollster even conducted it.
Remarkably, that is not the only race in Kansas in which a tainted nominee could cost Republicans the election in November. Dogged by allegations of adultery, unwanted sexual advances, campaign-finance violations and inflating his résumé, Rep. Steve Watkins of the 2nd Congressional District was already facing a vigorous challenge from state Treasurer Jake LaTurner, the youngest statewide elected official in the country at age 32. Then, on July 14, Watkins was charged with three felonies and a misdemeanor for voting from an address where he does not live. The scandal prompted Watkins to step down from his committee assignments in Washington and neighboring Rep. Ron Estes to endorse LaTurner. (However, Republican brass such as House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy have stuck with Watkins.)
Although this eastern Kansas district voted for Trump by 18 points in 2016, it’s looking competitive this fall — and could be especially vulnerable if Watkins wins the primary. According to a poll from LaTurner’s campaign (mind you, hardly an unbiased source), Democratic Topeka Mayor Michelle De La Isla leads Watkins 50 percent to 37 percent, while De La Isla and LaTurner are locked in a virtual tie.
Michigan
In Michigan, there are three interesting House primaries, but the one grabbing the most national attention is probably the rematch in the 13th Congressional District between Democratic Rep. Rashida Tlaib and Detroit City Council President Brenda Jones.
This is a race with a lot of history, too. After the resignation of Democratic Rep. John Conyers in December 2017, the seat hosted two elections in November 2018 — a regular race for Congress and a special election to complete Conyers’s unexpired term. Tlaib and Jones faced off in crowded primaries, with Tlaib ultimately winning the regular primary and Jones the special. Jones tried to mount a write-in campaign against Tlaib last November but lost, meaning Jones represented the district for a few weeks before Tlaib took office.
Now, though, Tlaib and Jones are the only primary contenders, which might help Jones in the majority-Black, Detroit-based district as she is African American herself. In 2018, however, African American voters didn’t coalesce around a single candidate. Instead, Tlaib, who is Palestinian American, came out on top. However, this year Jones has the endorsement of every other Democrat who ran in 2018, and she’s taken aim at Tlaib’s sometimes-controversial national profile as a member of “The Squad,” claiming Tlaib is prioritizing celebrity over her constituents.
For the moment, though, Tlaib appears to have the upper hand, in part because she held a massive 40-to-1 cash-on-hand advantage over Jones as of July 15. Tlaib has also attacked Jones for not living in the district, and it probably helps Tlaib that Jones has her fair share of controversies, too, including alleged violations of state campaign finance laws. A July survey from Target Insyghts found Tlaib ahead 52 percent to 24 percent, so it looks as if this is Tlaib’s race to lose.
Over in western Michigan, we’re also keeping an eye on the Republican primary for the 3rd Congressional District, a Grand Rapids-based seat currently held by Rep. Justin Amash, a Libertarian and former Republican who isn’t seeking reelection. The principal GOP contenders are state Rep. Lynn Afendoulis and Peter Meijer, a U.S. Army veteran and scion of the family that owns the eponymous Midwestern retail chain — which probably helps with his name recognition.
Meijer appears to have the upper hand, too, as he has support from House Republican leaders and leads the money race. As of July 15, he had raised a little over $1 million in contributions, compared to Afendoulis’s $625,000. Not to mention, he had a $400,000 to $140,000 cash edge for the home stretch (Meijer has also loaned his campaign $475,000; Afendoulis has given hers $256,000). Still, Afendoulis argues she’s the only candidate with legislative experience and is the only conservative for the job, having earned an endorsement from Susan B. Anthony List, which opposes abortion rights. She’s also questioned Meijer’s loyalty to Trump and the GOP, slamming him as a “Never Trumper” who helped Democrats by working for With Honor, a bipartisan group that aims to elect veterans to Congress.
A mid-June survey from Meijer’s campaign found him ahead of Afendoulis by 24 points, 41 percent to 17 percent, although we should take internal polls with a grain of salt. Ultimately, the Republican winner will advance to face attorney Hillary Scholten, who is unopposed in the Democratic primary. And although Trump carried this district by about 10 points in 2016, 52 percent to 42 percent, election handicappers only give the GOP a narrow advantage in the race.
In the last district we’re watching, three Republicans are vying to replace retiring GOP Rep. Paul Mitchell in Michigan’s 10th District, which lies north of Detroit in “The Thumb” and is the most Republican-leaning seat in the state.
First up, state Rep. Shane Hernandez has enjoyed the backing of groups promoting limited government like the Club for Growth and Americans for Prosperity. The Club’s political arm has spent about $1.5 million to help Hernandez, which includes ad buys featuring Mitchell endorsing Hernandez and emphasizing Hernandez’s support for Trump. Meanwhile, businesswoman Lisa McClain had spent $1.6 million on the race as of July 15 — about four times as much as her opponents — and has run ads calling herself a conservative outsider and pro-Trump Republican. McClain has also questioned Hernandez’s Trump bona fides by running an ad claiming that Hernandez opposed Trump and the idea of building a border wall in 2016. A super PAC backing McClain has also spent nearly $500,000 boosting her. A third candidate, retired Air Force Brig. Gen. Doug Slocum, has little outside support, but he’s stressed his early support for Trump and his extensive military service as a pilot in the Air Force and as commander of Selfridge Air National Guard Base in Macomb County, which is in the district.
The only recent survey of the race comes from Hernandez’s allies at the Club, which in mid-July found him narrowly leading McClain by 6 points, 33 percent to 27 percent, with Slocum in a distant third at 10 percent.
Missouri
Progressive challengers have already unseated incumbent Democratic congressmen in two districts this year — could Missouri’s 1st Congressional District be next? A Clay — either current Rep. Lacy Clay or his father, Bill — has represented St. Louis in Congress continuously since 1969, but registered nurse and Black Lives Matter activist Cori Bush is determined to bring that streak to an end. Clay defeated Bush 57 percent to 37 percent in the Democratic primary here in 2018, but it’s a much fairer fight this time around: Instead of being outspent more than three to one like she was in 2018, Bush has spent nearly $442,000 this year to Clay’s more than $548,000 (as of July 15).
In addition, outside group Fight Corporate Monopolies has dropped six figures on an ad attacking Clay for fighting the Obama administration on Wall Street reform. Generally, though, Clay has a pretty progressive voting record: He’s more liberal than 83 percent of Democrats in the current Congress, according to DW-Nominate, and, like Bush, supports both single-payer health care and the Green New Deal. On the other hand, the nationwide movement against police violence may help Bush, as she first rose to prominence amid the 2014 protests over the shooting death of Michael Brown in Ferguson, which is in the district. But whoever wins the primary will likely punch their ticket to Congress, since the 1st District is overwhelmingly Democratic.
Missourians statewide will also vote on Amendment 2, a ballot measure that would make Missouri the 39th state to expand Medicaid under the Affordable Care Act. In the face of opposition from Republican governors and legislatures, proponents of Medicaid expansion have had a lot of success recently at the ballot box — Idaho, Nebraska and Utah passed it in 2018, and Oklahoma did so just a month ago — and Missouri looks like it could follow suit. A June poll from Remington Research Group found Amendment 2 leading 47 percent to 40 percent, and as of July 27, supporters had outraised opponents by the shocking margin of $10.1 million to less than $112,000. If the amendment passes, an estimated 230,000 people would newly become eligible for Medicaid starting in 2021.
There are also several races we didn’t have room to cover — like an “accidental congressman’s” comeback attempt in Michigan’s 11th District and the question of whether Washington state will elect its first Black representative or a protégée of Bernie Sanders in the open 10th District. Feel free to follow us on Twitter tonight for full coverage up and down the ballot. However, as usual, it could be several days before we get final results. And if any of those results have an effect on who’s favored in November (lookin’ at you, Kansas), we’ll cover it for you right here on FiveThirtyEight.com.
CORRECTION (August 4, 2020, 11:45 a.m.): An earlier version of this article incorrectly stated which candidate was trailing Marshall and Kobach in an internal Republican poll. It was Hamilton, not Marshall.


fivethirthyeight--2020-08-04--Will The Power Five Try To Power Through?

We begin with the latest developments and/or setbacks in college football ’ s attempts to get off the ground .
Players from the Pac-12 have posted a list of demands around player safety , racial justice and economic opportunity that they want met to ensure their participation ; the SEC admitted on a call that positive coronavirus cases on their teams were “ a given ” ; and programs continue to be hit by COVID-19-related closures .
While there is talk of the Power Five conferences potentially breaking away and forming their own league — really , the United States @ @ @ @ @ @ @ apologies to the XFL and The Rock ) — we remain unconvinced that college football is actually going to happen this fall .
We ’ re optimistic that the pandemic could be a catalyst for some of the changes the players are advocating , even if many of their demands appear a little too unrealistic to be realized without more economic pressure .
But we agree that something needs to give for the long-term viability of college football as we know it , and the most likely time for that to happen is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ finally get to talk about multiple live sports !
Are there too many sports all of sudden ?
Maybe , but we love having the NBA , WNBA , NHL , MLS , the PGA Championship and MLB ( for now ) back on our television screens .
We discuss the developments over the weekend in the major leagues : In the NBA , the Raptors suddenly look a lot better , but our RAPTOR still only gives them a 2 percent chance , so don ’ t get too excited too quickly @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of drama , including the improbable success of the Washington Mystics , tied for best record in the league even though down four of their stars ; in baseball , Sara ’ s Minnesota Twins look satisfyingly dominant , but the abbreviated season is so weird , will we need to talk about how well the Orioles are doing ?
( Probably not . )
And hockey got off to a great start , with a truly buzzer-beating win by the Colorado Avalanche over the St. Louis Blues , a good showing by @ @ @ @ @ @ @ York Rangers ’ expense ) , and even a fight .
That EA Sports sound library the NHL is using to pipe in crowd noise is clearly doing its job .
We ’ re all looking forward to different things , but it is very exciting to have enough sports to watch that it ’ s kind of overwhelming .
Finally , as we get all our sports back , Neil takes us down a Rabbit Hole of the best players who are sitting out 2020 .
Purposefully on the bench are several @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ; Yoenis Cespedes , as of , like , Monday afternoon ; and also a fair number of New England Patriots .
It ’ s unclear if that means that Bill Belichick is up to something , but it is certain that we are going to think about these seasons differently because of all the talent that ’ s missing .
What we ’ re looking at this week : • How the pandemic could reshape college sports • What a better future for college football could look like • What a year @ @ @ @ @ @ @ skills

We begin with the latest developments and/or setbacks in college football’s attempts to get off the ground. Players from the Pac-12 have posted a list of demands around player safety, racial justice and economic opportunity that they want met to ensure their participation; the SEC admitted on a call that positive coronavirus cases on their teams were “a given”; and programs continue to be hit by COVID-19-related closures. While there is talk of the Power Five conferences potentially breaking away and forming their own league — really, the United States’ second professional football league (our apologies to the XFL and The Rock) — we remain unconvinced that college football is actually going to happen this fall. We’re optimistic that the pandemic could be a catalyst for some of the changes the players are advocating, even if many of their demands appear a little too unrealistic to be realized without more economic pressure. But we agree that something needs to give for the long-term viability of college football as we know it, and the most likely time for that to happen is in a crisis.
Next, we finally get to talk about multiple live sports! Are there too many sports all of sudden? Maybe, but we love having the NBA, WNBA, NHL, MLS, the PGA Championship and MLB (for now) back on our television screens. We discuss the developments over the weekend in the major leagues: In the NBA, the Raptors suddenly look a lot better, but our RAPTOR still only gives them a 2 percent chance, so don’t get too excited too quickly in Toronto; the WNBA is full of drama, including the improbable success of the Washington Mystics, tied for best record in the league even though down four of their stars; in baseball, Sara’s Minnesota Twins look satisfyingly dominant, but the abbreviated season is so weird, will we need to talk about how well the Orioles are doing? (Probably not.) And hockey got off to a great start, with a truly buzzer-beating win by the Colorado Avalanche over the St. Louis Blues, a good showing by the Carolina Hurricanes (at the New York Rangers’ expense), and even a fight. That EA Sports sound library the NHL is using to pipe in crowd noise is clearly doing its job. We’re all looking forward to different things, but it is very exciting to have enough sports to watch that it’s kind of overwhelming.
Finally, as we get all our sports back, Neil takes us down a Rabbit Hole of the best players who are sitting out 2020. Purposefully on the bench are several Washington Mystics; many midtier NBA players; Yoenis Cespedes, as of, like, Monday afternoon; and also a fair number of New England Patriots. It’s unclear if that means that Bill Belichick is up to something, but it is certain that we are going to think about these seasons differently because of all the talent that’s missing.
What we’re looking at this week:


fivethirthyeight--2020-08-04--The GDP Data Is Terrible. That Doesn’t Mean Trump Is Bound To Lose.

In this week ’ s FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast , the crew discusses how well economic data can predict the outcome @ @ @ @ @ also take a look at what could happen if President Trump casts doubt on the @ @ @ @ @ November .

In this week’s FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the crew discusses how well economic data can predict the outcome of an election. They also take a look at what could happen if President Trump casts doubt on the legitimacy of the election in November.


fivethirthyeight--2020-08-04--The Yankees Finally Have The Dynamic Duo They Wanted

The New York Yankees of recent seasons haven ’ t exactly lacked for star power — or success , for that matter .
Ever since transitioning out of the Derek Jeter/Alex Rodriguez Era in the mid-2010s , New York owns the third-best record in baseball and has featured numerous All-Stars up and down its roster .
But one missing ingredient has been simultaneous greatness from the hard-hitting tandem of right fielder Aaron Judge and designated hitter Giancarlo Stanton , the team ’ s second-highest-paid player behind new ace Gerrit Cole .
The Yankees didn ’ t necessarily need Stanton ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ — they had already led the majors in homers the year before he arrived — but the addition of another MVP-caliber hitter , in combination with Judge , had New York poised to become an unstoppable slugging juggernaut .
Judge and Stanton , though , have never quite clicked at the same time , and the Yankees haven ’ t made it past the American League Championship Series in the two seasons with both stars .
But early in this strange 2020 season , which has been stranger for the Yankees than most @ @ @ @ @ @ @ change that narrative .
Stanton started the season hot and Judge is currently on a roll .
If the initial returns are any indication , this could be the year for them — and their team — to finally cash in on their immense potential together .
When the Yankees acquired Stanton from Miami in December 2017 , he was coming off a 59-home run , National League MVP season worth a career-best 7.7 wins above replacement , while Judge had just set a rookie record with 52 bombs , generating 8.1 WAR @ @ @ @ @ @ @ lineup that season , their 111 combined home runs would have ranked second all-time for any set of teammates — behind only fellow Yankees Roger Maris and Mickey Mantle , who hit 115 together in 1961 .
But the most Stanton and Judge ever actually bombed for the Yankees in the same season is 65 , in their initial season together .
They have never both hit 30 homers in the same season as teammates , much less 50 apiece .
And last year , they combined for only 30 in total .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ disappointing results for a duo that had Maris-and-Mantle potential on paper .
In his first regular season with the Yankees , Stanton stayed healthy and crushed 38 home runs with 4.3 WAR , which would be seen as a standout performance for most players , in most cities .
( Even for Stanton , it was better than either his 2015 or 2016 seasons . )
But New York is a demanding town , and Stanton had not lived up to the expectations set by his stellar 2017 season .
Making matters worse @ @ @ @ @ @ @ struck out six times in 18 at-bats and put up a .444 on-base plus slugging as the Yankees were eliminated by the Boston Red Sox .
For his part , Judge was limited to 112 games in 2018 because of a wrist injury , still hitting 27 home runs with 5.5 WAR but otherwise seeing reduced numbers from his breakout the previous season .
His postseason stats were good — he had an impressive 1.194 OPS against Boston — but that just emphasized how difficult it would be for the Yankees to get @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Stanton at the same time .
Even with Judge raking , New York averaged just 3.5 runs per game ( 1.8 fewer than their season average ) in the four-game series loss to the Red Sox .
Then , in 2019 , Stanton had just 0.4 WAR while missing 144 games with a wide variety of ailments , ending the year with a career-low three home runs .
Judge missed 60 games himself , though he did hit 27 home runs and record 5.1 WAR , and the duo was limited to two @ @ @ @ @ @ @ suffered a quad injury in Game 1 of the ALCS .
Heading into 2020 , in their two-year career as Yankee teammates — during the 2018 and 2019 regular seasons — Judge and Stanton started only 117 games together out of a possible 324 , good for a rate of only 36 percent .
They collectively hit just 95 homers — or an average of 23.8 per player , per season .
They ’ ve seldom been able to stay healthy at the same time , much less simultaneously play to their combined @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that is .
It ’ s very early in a very odd season .
And the season may not even be allowed to play out to completion given COVID-19 concerns .
But for Judge and Stanton so far , 2020 is promising to be different in a good way .
Stanton , long the darling of Statcast ( MLB ’ s ball- and player-tracking technology ) , set the tone when he smoked a ball out of the park at 121.3 miles per hour in New York ’ s second game of the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ noted , that will likely be the hardest-hit ball we see all year in this pandemic-shortened season .
The last time a batted ball traveled so fast was in 2018 … when it also left the bat of Giancarlo Stanton .
Beyond the raw power , Stanton has also cut his strikeout rate ( 18.9 percent ) to the lowest it ’ s ever been , and he ’ s walking at a career-high clip ( 18.9 percent ) as well .
He ’ s also played all nine of the Yankees ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ important statistic of all , and that has him on an early pace for nearly 7 WAR per 162 team games .
This is the Stanton New York thought it was getting when it dealt for him three years ago .
Meanwhile , Judge is in an absolute zone right now .
After going deep Sunday night to give the Yankees a late lead against the Red Sox , he has hit six home runs in his last six games ; he leads the American League in runs scored ( 11 — tied @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , homers ( 6 ) , runs batted in ( 14 — tied with Minnesota ’ s Nelson Cruz ) , total bases ( 31 ) , slugging percentage ( .886 ) , OPS ( 1.270 ) and batter WAR ( 0.9 ) .
Judge has managed to battle through injuries the past couple seasons to still produce the ninth-most WAR in the AL , so the Yankees can only imagine what a healthy Judge can do .
And so far this year , he ’ s also played all nine of New @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , the nine games Stanton and Judge have started together this year already represent more than 7 percent of all of the games they ’ ve ever started together , and the 2020 season isn ’ t even two weeks old yet .
Of course , a lot more can go wrong in a season like this than even in a normal year .
The 8-1 Yankees are off to a tremendous start , and our prediction model thinks they are the AL favorites , but that still just means they have a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
However , seeing two of the best power hitters of their generation tee off on opposing pitchers has to be a welcome sight for a team that had visions of this back when Stanton and Judge were first united .

The New York Yankees of recent seasons haven’t exactly lacked for star power — or success, for that matter. Ever since transitioning out of the Derek Jeter/Alex Rodriguez Era in the mid-2010s, New York owns the third-best record in baseball and has featured numerous All-Stars up and down its roster.
But one missing ingredient has been simultaneous greatness from the hard-hitting tandem of right fielder Aaron Judge and designated hitter Giancarlo Stanton, the team’s second-highest-paid player behind new ace Gerrit Cole. The Yankees didn’t necessarily need Stanton’s prodigious power when they acquired him — they had already led the majors in homers the year before he arrived — but the addition of another MVP-caliber hitter, in combination with Judge, had New York poised to become an unstoppable slugging juggernaut. Judge and Stanton, though, have never quite clicked at the same time, and the Yankees haven’t made it past the American League Championship Series in the two seasons with both stars.
But early in this strange 2020 season, which has been stranger for the Yankees than most teams, the pair is trying to change that narrative. Stanton started the season hot and Judge is currently on a roll. If the initial returns are any indication, this could be the year for them — and their team — to finally cash in on their immense potential together.
When the Yankees acquired Stanton from Miami in December 2017, he was coming off a 59-home run, National League MVP season worth a career-best 7.7 wins above replacement, while Judge had just set a rookie record with 52 bombs, generating 8.1 WAR. If the two had shared a lineup that season, their 111 combined home runs would have ranked second all-time for any set of teammates — behind only fellow Yankees Roger Maris and Mickey Mantle, who hit 115 together in 1961.
Stanton and Judge looked like a historic pair — on paper Most combined home runs by two teammates in MLB history, plus hypothetical situation if Giancarlo Stanton and Aaron Judge had been teammates in 2017 Rk Year Team Players Total HR 1 1961 Yankees Roger Maris 61, Mickey Mantle 54 115 2 2017 Yankees* Giancarlo Stanton 59, Aaron Judge 52 111 3 2001 Giants Barry Bonds 73, Rich Aurilia 37 110 4 1927 Yankees Babe Ruth 60, Lou Gehrig 47 107 5 1998 Cardinals Mark McGwire 70, Ray Lankford 31 101 6 2002 Rangers Alex Rodriguez 57, Rafael Palmeiro 43 100 7 1999 Cardinals Mark McGwire 65, Fernando Tatis 34 99 8 2001 Rangers Alex Rodriguez 52, Rafael Palmeiro 47 99 9 1998 Mariners Ken Griffey Jr. 56, Alex Rodriguez 42 98 10 1998 Cubs Sammy Sosa 66, Henry Rodriguez 31 97 11 1997 Mariners Ken Griffey Jr. 56, Jay Buhner 40 96 12 2017 Marlins Giancarlo Stanton 59, Marcell Ozuna 37 96 13 1930 Cubs Hack Wilson 56, Gabby Hartnett 37 93 14 1932 Athletics Jimmie Foxx 58, Al Simmons 35 93 15 1996 Mariners Ken Griffey Jr. 49, Jay Buhner 44 93 *Stanton was on the Miami Marlins in 2017 but joined the Yankees before the 2018 season. Source: FanGraphs
But the most Stanton and Judge ever actually bombed for the Yankees in the same season is 65, in their initial season together. They have never both hit 30 homers in the same season as teammates, much less 50 apiece. And last year, they combined for only 30 in total. By and large, those are pretty disappointing results for a duo that had Maris-and-Mantle potential on paper.
In his first regular season with the Yankees, Stanton stayed healthy and crushed 38 home runs with 4.3 WAR, which would be seen as a standout performance for most players, in most cities. (Even for Stanton, it was better than either his 2015 or 2016 seasons.) But New York is a demanding town, and Stanton had not lived up to the expectations set by his stellar 2017 season. Making matters worse, in the 2018 postseason, Stanton struck out six times in 18 at-bats and put up a .444 on-base plus slugging as the Yankees were eliminated by the Boston Red Sox.
For his part, Judge was limited to 112 games in 2018 because of a wrist injury, still hitting 27 home runs with 5.5 WAR but otherwise seeing reduced numbers from his breakout the previous season. His postseason stats were good — he had an impressive 1.194 OPS against Boston — but that just emphasized how difficult it would be for the Yankees to get the best out of both Judge and Stanton at the same time. Even with Judge raking, New York averaged just 3.5 runs per game (1.8 fewer than their season average) in the four-game series loss to the Red Sox.
Then, in 2019, Stanton had just 0.4 WAR while missing 144 games with a wide variety of ailments, ending the year with a career-low three home runs. Judge missed 60 games himself, though he did hit 27 home runs and record 5.1 WAR, and the duo was limited to two home runs in the postseason as Stanton suffered a quad injury in Game 1 of the ALCS.
Heading into 2020, in their two-year career as Yankee teammates — during the 2018 and 2019 regular seasons — Judge and Stanton started only 117 games together out of a possible 324, good for a rate of only 36 percent. They collectively hit just 95 homers — or an average of 23.8 per player, per season. They’ve seldom been able to stay healthy at the same time, much less simultaneously play to their combined ability level.
Until this year, that is.
Judge and Stanton are finally heating up at the same time Home runs, weighted runs created plus (wRC+) and wins above replacement (WAR) per 162 games for Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton by season, 2018-2020 Giancarlo Stanton Aaron Judge Year HR wRC+ WAR* HR wRC+ WAR* 2018 38 129 4.3 27 150 5.5 2019 3 139 0.4 27 141 5.1 2020 2 198 6.9 6 245 16.2 *Per 162 games. Weighted runs created plus adjusts for ballpark effects and the run-scoring environment in any given year, with 100 always average. WAR is measured using JEFFBAGWELL (Joint Estimate Featuring FanGraphs and B-R Aggregated to Generate WAR, Equally Leveling Lists), which averages the metrics found at Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs. Sources: Baseball-Reference.com. FanGraphs
It’s very early in a very odd season. And the season may not even be allowed to play out to completion given COVID-19 concerns. But for Judge and Stanton so far, 2020 is promising to be different in a good way. Stanton, long the darling of Statcast (MLB’s ball- and player-tracking technology), set the tone when he smoked a ball out of the park at 121.3 miles per hour in New York’s second game of the season:
As Tony Wolfe of FanGraphs noted, that will likely be the hardest-hit ball we see all year in this pandemic-shortened season. The last time a batted ball traveled so fast was in 2018 … when it also left the bat of Giancarlo Stanton. Beyond the raw power, Stanton has also cut his strikeout rate (18.9 percent) to the lowest it’s ever been, and he’s walking at a career-high clip (18.9 percent) as well. He’s also played all nine of the Yankees’ games so far, maybe the most important statistic of all, and that has him on an early pace for nearly 7 WAR per 162 team games. This is the Stanton New York thought it was getting when it dealt for him three years ago.
Meanwhile, Judge is in an absolute zone right now. After going deep Sunday night to give the Yankees a late lead against the Red Sox, he has hit six home runs in his last six games; he leads the American League in runs scored (11 — tied with Seattle’s J.P. Crawford), homers (6), runs batted in (14 — tied with Minnesota’s Nelson Cruz), total bases (31), slugging percentage (.886), OPS (1.270) and batter WAR (0.9). Judge has managed to battle through injuries the past couple seasons to still produce the ninth-most WAR in the AL, so the Yankees can only imagine what a healthy Judge can do. And so far this year, he’s also played all nine of New York’s contests.
In fact, the nine games Stanton and Judge have started together this year already represent more than 7 percent of all of the games they’ve ever started together, and the 2020 season isn’t even two weeks old yet.
Of course, a lot more can go wrong in a season like this than even in a normal year. The 8-1 Yankees are off to a tremendous start, and our prediction model thinks they are the AL favorites, but that still just means they have a 16 percent chance of winning it all. However, seeing two of the best power hitters of their generation tee off on opposing pitchers has to be a welcome sight for a team that had visions of this back when Stanton and Judge were first united.
Check out our latest MLB predictions.


fivethirthyeight--2020-08-05--The Federal Clampdown On Portland Shows Just How Fragile Our Democracy Is

In the video , Juniper Simonis screams as they are pushed to the ground , struggling , by a group of men in military fatigues who wield large , black weapons .
While Simonis is handcuffed and their service dog barks , the men surround them , a wall of camo , blocking the videographer from capturing the full extent of what ’ s happening .
Simonis wears shorts and a tank top , but the men appear dressed for war .
The officers ’ uniforms bear a large patch that says “ police , ” but they aren ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ agents , but with no name tags or badges , they are , in the moment of Simonis ’ s arrest , impossible to identify .
Simonis is an American scientist — a computational ecological who does data analysis for researchers and the government .
Last month , Simonis was detained outside a federal courthouse in Portland , Oregon , by mysterious men now known to be agents of the Department of Homeland Security , a federal agency created to fight terrorism .
By Simonis ’ s own estimation , the scientist spent @ @ @ @ @ @ @ custody .
For the first 45 minutes or so , they said , they were held in a parking garage without having been read their rights .
Simonis was then transferred to a U.S.
Marshals ’ lockup .
Their request to call a lawyer or a friend was refused .
Eventually , Simonis was given a citation for vandalism related to chalking the sidewalk in front of the courthouse , and sent out the door in the middle of the night with no way home .
Simonis ’ s story is not how @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
But over the last few weeks , it ’ s become part of a familiar pattern .
DHS agents in Portland have tear-gassed protesters and pulled individuals into unmarked vans , and some of those people were banned from attending any more protests as a condition of being released from jail .
The agency also collected information on journalists who published leaked documents .
Late last week , a deal was struck with Oregon ’ s governor to withdraw the troops .
The governor said it was happening immediately , but DHS @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and that they wouldn ’ t leave until “ [ W ] e are assured that the courthouse and other federal facilities will no longer be attacked nightly.
” These events sit in a weird nexus .
They are extraordinary enough to draw the attention of legal scholars and criticism from civil liberties groups .
But politically , the response has been divided .
House Democrats called for an investigation , while Sen. Rand Paul is the only congressional Republican to speak out against the DHS response .
The media ’ s reaction @ @ @ @ @ @ @ with outlets like the National Review telling readers that the events in Portland were justified and The Atlantic saying justification was impossible .
That divided response makes some experts almost as concerned as the arrests .
Partisanship is dangerous , they told us , particularly when it ’ s accompanied by a long series of warning signs that could signal serious danger for American democracy .
Portland is not the first place the federal government has stepped in with disproportionate force against the will of local authorities .
In 1794 , George Washington @ @ @ @ @ @ @ into Pennsylvania to put down an anti-tax revolt .
And while that is a very long time to reach back for precedent , experts say it ’ s important to understand the context of American history when it comes to violation of democratic norms .
“ Contrary to what a lot of people assume , American democracy has always been fragile and in real danger of backsliding , ” said Suzanne Mettler , a professor of American politics at Cornell University and one of the authors of “ Four Threats : The Recurring @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and other experts , consider our current time period one in which authoritarianism poses a serious risk — but not because of what is happening with the DHS in Portland .
Instead , it ’ s more likely that recent events are a symptom of something bigger , a risk that has steadily grown in the last several decades .
Instead , they point to the political polarization evident in public opinion on Portland as indicative of the danger we ’ re in .
When it comes to Portland , specifically , the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a survey fielded by Data for Progress on July 28 , respondents were split about Trump ’ s decision to send DHS to Oregon , with 42 percent calling the deployment of federal police “ essential ” and 45 percent calling it an “ overstep.
” And that split was highly partisan .
Broken down by party affiliation , nearly three-quarters of Republicans favored the decision while a similar proportion of Democrats opposed it .
( Full disclosure : Shom Mazumder , one of the authors of this article , is a fellow @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , by itself , isn ’ t much of a shock .
We are , for better or for worse , used to all sorts of issues dividing public opinion .
The terrifying thing is the way it links partisan politics and authoritarianism .
According to a recent report by the Democracy Fund ’ s Voter Study Group , support for democracy is in no way universal .
In fact , their findings show that 1 in 3 Americans have , at some point in the last three years , supported some kind @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 20 percent said it was very important to live in a democracy .
And separate polling , commissioned by Mazumder before Portland , from YouGov Blue , an arm of YouGov that primarily serves Democratic and progressive clients , underscores this as well .
Although it found that Republicans were less supportive overall of democracy — 1 out of 4 Republicans said that democracy is a “ very bad ” or “ fairly bad ” way to govern the country compared to just four percent of Democrats .
There was also more support @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the survey as someone “ who does not have to bother with Congress and elections ” among Republicans .
But it wasn ’ t just Republicans driving these anti-democratic views .
A significant percentage of Democrats said they preferred to have “ experts , not the government ” make decisions on what they think is best for the country .
That isn ’ t necessarily all that surprising when you consider we ’ ve spent the last 30 years building up an increasingly apocalyptic view of our political opponents and their intentions .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ asked Americans about the amount of partisan animosity they held .
In that time , the percentage of people who rate the opposing party as “ very unfavorable ” has climbed from about 20 percent to more than 50 percent .
In fact , as of 2016 , more than 40 percent of both Republicans and Democrats said they saw the other side as a threat to the nation .
That poses a real threat to our democracy , too .
“ If we view that if one party gets into power they @ @ @ @ @ @ @ way of life or the nation as a whole , we ’ ll do whatever we can to keep them out or keep ourselves in , ” said Jennifer McCoy , a professor of political science at Georgia State University .
That , she added , is when people start to tolerate the violation of democratic norms .
“ The goal is to stay in power or get in power and it overrides the value of respecting democratic principles , ” she said .
In fact , research from political scientists Matt Graham @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that survey measures might even underestimate the American public ’ s commitment to upholding democratic norms , especially when subverting norms might help get one side ’ s preferred candidate pushed through .
Looking at situations in American history and around the world , McCoy , Mettler and other experts have found that extreme polarization is one major red flag that shows a democracy is in trouble .
That ’ s because people will condone all kinds of violence in the name of protecting themselves , said Christian Davenport , professor of political @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Violations of norms — even the law — become justifiable depending on who is doing the rule-breaking and who is being targeted .
Through that lens , it makes perfect sense why Americans are politically divided on Portland : It ’ s actually a divide over whether you see the protesters as a threat .
And that should make us all very uncomfortable — no matter which side of the aisle we ’ re on .
Because evidence points to the fact that many Americans , regardless of their party affiliation , are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ their political opponents .
Back in March , McCoy and other researchers surveyed nearly 3,000 Americans about their support for various anti-democratic policies under different scenarios where one party , or the other , was in power .
The results from this survey have not yet been published , but their preliminary analysis finds significantly higher support for such policies as prosecuting journalists , banning protests and disqualifying political opponents from elections in situations when a respondent ’ s preferred party was in power — and hoping to stay there .
The effect @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Republican power .
But it existed for Democrats , as well .
For instance , while 23.6 percent of Democrats and 22.7 percent of Republicans said the president should do what the people want , even if it goes against existing laws , when their party was out of power , those numbers jumped to 29.6 percent and 35.1 percent , respectively , when the rule of law became inconvenient to keeping the other side at bay .
Not all experts who study democratic erosion think what ’ s going on in Portland @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Robert Mickey , a professor of political science at the University of Michigan , told us he ’ s more concerned with threats to voting rights and sees Portland as especially dangerous political theater .
But all of the experts we spoke to said our democracy is in a dangerous place , and that the partisan split we see over things like federal agents dragging a screaming woman into a courthouse is part of that .
“ We ’ re not immune to the rise of authoritarianism in the United States , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ can ’ t be cavalier in thinking we are .
”

In the video, Juniper Simonis screams as they are pushed to the ground, struggling, by a group of men in military fatigues who wield large, black weapons. While Simonis is handcuffed and their service dog barks, the men surround them, a wall of camo, blocking the videographer from capturing the full extent of what’s happening. Simonis wears shorts and a tank top, but the men appear dressed for war. The officers’ uniforms bear a large patch that says “police,” but they aren’t police. They’re federal agents, but with no name tags or badges, they are, in the moment of Simonis’s arrest, impossible to identify.
Simonis is an American scientist — a computational ecologist who does data analysis for researchers and the government. Last month, Simonis was detained outside a federal courthouse in Portland, Oregon, by mysterious men now known to be agents of the Department of Homeland Security, a federal agency created to fight terrorism. By Simonis’s own estimation, the scientist spent around eight hours in the agents’ custody. For the first 45 minutes or so, they said, they were held in a parking garage without having been read their rights. Simonis was then transferred to a U.S. Marshals’ lockup. Their request to call a lawyer or a friend was refused. Eventually, Simonis was given a citation for vandalism related to chalking the sidewalk in front of the courthouse, and sent out the door in the middle of the night with no way home.
Simonis’s story is not how most Americans expect law enforcement to work. But over the last few weeks, it’s become part of a familiar pattern. DHS agents in Portland have tear-gassed protesters and pulled individuals into unmarked vans, and some of those people were banned from attending any more protests as a condition of being released from jail. The agency also collected information on journalists who published leaked documents.
Late last week, a deal was struck with Oregon’s governor to withdraw the troops. The governor said it was happening immediately, but DHS officials said it was a phased withdrawal and that they wouldn’t leave until “[W]e are assured that the courthouse and other federal facilities will no longer be attacked nightly.”
These events sit in a weird nexus. They are extraordinary enough to draw the attention of legal scholars and criticism from civil liberties groups. But politically, the response has been divided. House Democrats called for an investigation, while Sen. Rand Paul is the only congressional Republican to speak out against the DHS response. The media’s reaction has also fallen along well-worn lines, with outlets like the National Review telling readers that the events in Portland were justified and The Atlantic saying justification was impossible. That divided response makes some experts almost as concerned as the arrests. Partisanship is dangerous, they told us, particularly when it’s accompanied by a long series of warning signs that could signal serious danger for American democracy.
Portland is not the first place the federal government has stepped in with disproportionate force against the will of local authorities. In 1794, George Washington himself led a militia of 13,000 men into Pennsylvania to put down an anti-tax revolt. And while that is a very long time to reach back for precedent, experts say it’s important to understand the context of American history when it comes to violation of democratic norms. “Contrary to what a lot of people assume, American democracy has always been fragile and in real danger of backsliding,” said Suzanne Mettler, a professor of American politics at Cornell University and one of the authors of “Four Threats: The Recurring Crises of American Democracy.”
She, and other experts, consider our current time period one in which authoritarianism poses a serious risk — but not because of what is happening with the DHS in Portland. Instead, it’s more likely that recent events are a symptom of something bigger, a risk that has steadily grown in the last several decades. Instead, they point to the political polarization evident in public opinion on Portland as indicative of the danger we’re in.
When it comes to Portland, specifically, the partisan divide is definitely real. In a survey fielded by Data for Progress on July 28, respondents were split about Trump’s decision to send DHS to Oregon, with 42 percent calling the deployment of federal police “essential” and 45 percent calling it an “overstep.” And that split was highly partisan. Broken down by party affiliation, nearly three-quarters of Republicans favored the decision while a similar proportion of Democrats opposed it. (Full disclosure: Shom Mazumder, one of the authors of this article, is a fellow at Data for Progress.)
That, by itself, isn’t much of a shock. We are, for better or for worse, used to all sorts of issues dividing public opinion. The terrifying thing is the way it links partisan politics and authoritarianism. According to a recent report by the Democracy Fund’s Voter Study Group, support for democracy is in no way universal. In fact, their findings show that 1 in 3 Americans have, at some point in the last three years, supported some kind of authoritarian view, and only about 80 percent said it was very important to live in a democracy.
And separate polling, commissioned by Mazumder before Portland, from YouGov Blue, an arm of YouGov that primarily serves Democratic and progressive clients, underscores this as well. Although it found that Republicans were less supportive overall of democracy — 1 out of 4 Republicans said that democracy is a “very bad” or “fairly bad” way to govern the country compared to just four percent of Democrats. There was also more support for a strong leader, defined in the survey as someone “who does not have to bother with Congress and elections” among Republicans. But it wasn’t just Republicans driving these anti-democratic views. A significant percentage of Democrats said they preferred to have “experts, not the government” make decisions on what they think is best for the country.
That isn’t necessarily all that surprising when you consider we’ve spent the last 30 years building up an increasingly apocalyptic view of our political opponents and their intentions. Since 1994, Pew Research Center has asked Americans about the amount of partisan animosity they held. In that time, the percentage of people who rate the opposing party as “very unfavorable” has climbed from about 20 percent to more than 50 percent. In fact, as of 2016, more than 40 percent of both Republicans and Democrats said they saw the other side as a threat to the nation.
That poses a real threat to our democracy, too. “If we view that if one party gets into power they’ll be a threat to my way of life or the nation as a whole, we’ll do whatever we can to keep them out or keep ourselves in,” said Jennifer McCoy, a professor of political science at Georgia State University. That, she added, is when people start to tolerate the violation of democratic norms. “The goal is to stay in power or get in power and it overrides the value of respecting democratic principles,” she said.
In fact, research from political scientists Matt Graham and Milan Svolik of Yale University found that survey measures might even overestimate the American public’s commitment to upholding democratic norms, especially when subverting norms might help get one side’s preferred candidate pushed through.
Looking at situations in American history and around the world, McCoy, Mettler and other experts have found that extreme polarization is one major red flag that shows a democracy is in trouble. That’s because people will condone all kinds of violence in the name of protecting themselves, said Christian Davenport, professor of political science at the University of Michigan. Violations of norms — even the law — become justifiable depending on who is doing the rule-breaking and who is being targeted.
Through that lens, it makes perfect sense why Americans are politically divided on Portland: It’s actually a divide over whether you see the protesters as a threat. And that should make us all very uncomfortable — no matter which side of the aisle we’re on. Because evidence points to the fact that many Americans, regardless of their party affiliation, are willing to condone violence and repression against their political opponents.
Back in March, McCoy and other researchers surveyed nearly 3,000 Americans about their support for various anti-democratic policies under different scenarios where one party, or the other, was in power. The results from this survey have not yet been published, but their preliminary analysis finds significantly higher support for such policies as prosecuting journalists, banning protests and disqualifying political opponents from elections in situations when a respondent’s preferred party was in power — and hoping to stay there. The effect was larger among Republicans hoping to consolidate Republican power. But it existed for Democrats, as well. For instance, while 23.6 percent of Democrats and 22.7 percent of Republicans said the president should do what the people want, even if it goes against existing laws, when their party was out of power, those numbers jumped to 29.6 percent and 35.1 percent, respectively, when the rule of law became inconvenient to keeping the other side at bay.
Not all experts who study democratic erosion think what’s going on in Portland is a threat to democracy, though. Robert Mickey, a professor of political science at the University of Michigan, told us he’s more concerned with threats to voting rights and sees Portland as especially dangerous political theater.
But all of the experts we spoke to said our democracy is in a dangerous place, and that the partisan split we see over things like federal agents dragging a screaming woman into a courthouse is part of that. “We’re not immune to the rise of authoritarianism in the United States,” Mettler said. “And we can’t be cavalier in thinking we are.”
CORRECTION (August 5, 2020, 1:58 p.m.): An earlier version of this article incorrectly stated the percentage of Americans who said it was very important to live in a democracy. It was 80 percent, not 20 percent. It also said that survey measures might underestimate the American public’s commitment to upholding democratic norms, when in fact, they might overestimate them.


fivethirthyeight--2020-08-05--The Suns And Mavs Shouldn’t Have Surprised Us … But We Didn’t See T.J. Warren Coming

The NBA has been back officially for almost a week now , giving us just enough time to make some observations as clubs make their end-of-season pushes before the playoffs begin .
Some of the early returns are surprising , while others are ones we should have seen coming .
Here ’ s a quick breakdown from both categories .
WE SHOULD HAVE KNOWN THIS MIGHT HAPPEN : The Suns balling out again If you rewind to late October and early November , in the first week and a half of the season , you might remember the Suns briefly @ @ @ @ @ @ @ They had started the campaign 5-2 .
Each of the losses — against respectable competition in the Nuggets and Jazz — was by 1 point .
It included victories over the Clippers , Warriors and Sixers .
Some skepticism was warranted , but there were aspects of that run that felt legitimate , even as No .
1 overall pick Deandre Ayton was forced to sit during an early season suspension .
So after another hot start — Devin Booker hit a buzzer-beater over the Clippers ’ Kawhi Leonard and Paul George on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ since the restart — there may be something to Phoenix ’ s ability to get out of the blocks well .
We already knew what Booker could do .
But the team ’ s performance on defense has been impressive in some ways , too .
The Suns are among the top-five clubs in defending the rim early on , while also forcing 17 percent of their opponent ’ s possessions to end with a midrange jumper , the third-highest mark in the league since the restart .
Neither is too shabby , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ experienced clubs have been .
It ’ s unclear whether the Suns will be able to maintain their encouraging run on that end .
And it would be tough to keep up their offensive efficiency while ranking third-worst in fouls drawn per game since the restart .
( The teams that are worse , the Kings and Wizards , are a combined 0-6 . )
Still , with the hobbled Grizzlies in a freefall , Phoenix is in a good spot to make a charge at the eighth and ninth spots out West @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of what happens , the team should be excited about building on the glimpses it ’ s shown throughout this bizarre season .
NO ONE SAW THIS COMING : T.J. Warren ’ s supernova The NBA restart feels like a brand new season in many ways , with more days off from the suspension of play in March to the first game in the bubble than from the end of the NBA Finals last year to the October start of the regular season .
So it stands to reason that the players who @ @ @ @ @ @ @ might have more success in Orlando .
Pacers swingman T.J. Warren isn ’ t on that list .
His splits show he ’ s shot the ball poorly to start seasons , with October being his worst month throughout his career .
But this ain ’ t October .
And Warren has led the NBA in scoring , averaging almost 40 points per game after dropping 53 , 34 and then 32 points in his first three contests back , and he has led the Pacers to a 3-0 mark .
Warren ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ Neal ’ s Indiana record for most points over a three-game span .
Aside from the absurdity of some of the shots , his efficiency stands out as even more ridiculous .
Through the three contests , he ’ s knocked down 65 percent of his looks and almost 61 percent of his threes .
He has one turnover in those three games .
His production has made up for the loss of Domantas Sabonis , who ’ s missing the restart , and it takes pressure off guard Victor Oladipo , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ NO ONE SAW THIS COMING : Guys being this rusty on defense And while Warren has been particularly unstoppable , offenses leaguewide have more or less had their way in the bubble , too .
That ’ s a bit surprising , depending on how much you accept conventional wisdom : that defenses tend to have an advantage early on as offensive players shake off rust and get back into rhythm .
Expecting that would have been more than fair , especially given that defenders — who shout all game long to communicate @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are now playing in an atmosphere where they should be able to hear each other without several thousand screaming fans interrupting them .
Yet that hasn ’ t exactly been the case .
Instead , interruptions have been the norm — usually because of fouls .
Entering Wednesday ’ s games , refs have whistled 50 fouls a game , up from 41.2 per contest prior to the restart .
The sloppiness on D can be found just about everywhere .
Jump-shooters are getting to the line almost 75 percent more frequently than @ @ @ @ @ @ @ according to Second Spectrum .
Blow-by drives , where a player dribbles past a defender with ease , are also up slightly .
So are uncontested corner 3-point tries , which have become more plentiful as teams scramble to stop penetrators at the last second .
Some teams , like Toronto , look great on defense to this point .
Others , like the Sixers and Celtics , have been brutal at times .
Offensive efficiency and true shooting percentage numbers are up some so far , which could be a function of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ dropping some of the league ’ s weakest teams from the bubble format .
Either way , it seems likely that things will smooth out some , especially once the playoffs begin .
WE SHOULD HAVE KNOWN THIS MIGHT HAPPEN : Dallas struggling to close the deal Statistically , the Mavericks aren ’ t merely the NBA ’ s best offense this season — they ’ re quietly one of the best offenses in the history of the sport .
That reality likely gets overlooked for a couple reasons .
For starters , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ compete for a playoff spot before the season , the club is still working its way onto people ’ s radar screens .
And much of that has to do with the Mavs being led by a pair of young players , in second-year stud Luka Dončić and All-Star Kristaps Porziņģis , who made his return from a torn ACL to begin the campaign .
When it comes down to it , the growing pains of those two — specifically at the end of close games — might also have something to do @ @ @ @ @ @ @ as the offensive juggernaut it is .
In fairness to Dončić and Porziņģis , the Mavericks did shape up some in their come-from-behind victory on Tuesday to knock off the Kings in overtime .
But prior to that comeback , the Mavs had blown their first two games in the bubble — including a 7-point lead in the last minute of regulation against the Rockets — after holding double-digit leads in each .
In fact , their 13 losses in games they once held double-digit leads in are tied for the most in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ & Information Group .
We touched on some of this in November , when the numbers were already beginning to show some late-game turbulence ; the Mavs ’ offense had a tendency to fall off a cliff when pressure increased .
While they rank No .
1 in offense by a wide margin generally , they fall all the way to 28th in the clutch .
The biggest factor there : Dončić and Porziņģis , who take most attempts in key moments , rank 54th and 56th in effective field-goal rate out of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 40 shots in the clutch .
Both guys are guilty at times of forcing shots when things slow down , which bogs down an offense that otherwise moves the ball very well in other stages of its games .
Interestingly , Dallas looks almost certain to finish as the No .
7 seed in the West .
That would give the Mavs a first-round meeting with the Clippers , who arguably have the league ’ s best two-way closing lineup — and know how to score when it counts .
“ We ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Dončić , who had a huge 34-20-12 triple-double in the Tuesday win over the Kings but finished the loss against Houston 1-for-7 for 2 points over the last 10 minutes .
They ’ ll have to grow up fast to make some noise in the postseason .
Otherwise , it could make for a quick trip back home .

The NBA has been back officially for almost a week now, giving us just enough time to make some observations as clubs make their end-of-season pushes before the playoffs begin.
Some of the early returns are surprising, while others are ones we should have seen coming. Here’s a quick breakdown from both categories.
WE SHOULD HAVE KNOWN THIS MIGHT HAPPEN: The Suns balling out again
If you rewind to late October and early November, in the first week and a half of the season, you might remember the Suns briefly being the talk of the league.
They had started the campaign 5-2. Each of the losses — against respectable competition in the Nuggets and Jazz — was by 1 point. It included victories over the Clippers, Warriors and Sixers. Some skepticism was warranted, but there were aspects of that run that felt legitimate, even as No. 1 overall pick Deandre Ayton was forced to sit during an early season suspension.
So after another hot start — Devin Booker hit a buzzer-beater over the Clippers’ Kawhi Leonard and Paul George on Tuesday to push the Suns to 3-0 since the restart — there may be something to Phoenix’s ability to get out of the blocks well.
We already knew what Booker could do. But the team’s performance on defense has been impressive in some ways, too. The Suns are among the top-five clubs in defending the rim early on, while also forcing 17 percent of their opponent’s possessions to end with a midrange jumper, the third-highest mark in the league since the restart. Neither is too shabby, considering how porous some other, more experienced clubs have been.
It’s unclear whether the Suns will be able to maintain their encouraging run on that end. And it would be tough to keep up their offensive efficiency while ranking third-worst in fouls drawn per game since the restart. (The teams that are worse, the Kings and Wizards, are a combined 0-6.)
Still, with the hobbled Grizzlies in a freefall, Phoenix is in a good spot to make a charge at the eighth and ninth spots out West for a play-in game. And regardless of what happens, the team should be excited about building on the glimpses it’s shown throughout this bizarre season.
NO ONE SAW THIS COMING: T.J. Warren’s supernova
The NBA restart feels like a brand new season in many ways, with more days off from the suspension of play in March to the first game in the bubble than from the end of the NBA Finals last year to the October start of the regular season. So it stands to reason that the players who have historically jumped out to hotter-than-usual starts might have more success in Orlando.
Pacers swingman T.J. Warren isn’t on that list. His splits show he’s shot the ball poorly to start seasons, with October being his worst month throughout his career.
But this ain’t October. And Warren has led the NBA in scoring, averaging almost 40 points per game after dropping 53, 34 and then 32 points in his first three contests back, and he has led the Pacers to a 3-0 mark. Warren’s wild scoring run tied Jermaine O’Neal’s Indiana record for most points over a three-game span.
Aside from the absurdity of some of the shots, his efficiency stands out as even more ridiculous. Through the three contests, he’s knocked down 65 percent of his looks and almost 61 percent of his threes. He has one turnover in those three games. His production has made up for the loss of Domantas Sabonis, who’s missing the restart, and it takes pressure off guard Victor Oladipo, who’s still settling in.
NO ONE SAW THIS COMING: Guys being this rusty on defense
And while Warren has been particularly unstoppable, offenses leaguewide have more or less had their way in the bubble, too. That’s a bit surprising, depending on how much you accept conventional wisdom: that defenses tend to have an advantage early on as offensive players shake off rust and get back into rhythm.
Expecting that would have been more than fair, especially given that defenders — who shout all game long to communicate sudden switches, screens and coverages — are now playing in an atmosphere where they should be able to hear each other without several thousand screaming fans interrupting them.
Yet that hasn’t exactly been the case. Instead, interruptions have been the norm — usually because of fouls. Entering Wednesday’s games, refs have whistled 50 fouls a game, up from 41.2 per contest prior to the restart. The sloppiness on D can be found just about everywhere. Jump-shooters are getting to the line almost 75 percent more frequently than they did earlier in the season, according to Second Spectrum. Blow-by drives, where a player dribbles past a defender with ease, are also up slightly. So are uncontested corner 3-point tries, which have become more plentiful as teams scramble to stop penetrators at the last second.
Some teams, like Toronto, look great on defense to this point. Others, like the Sixers and Celtics, have been brutal at times. Offensive efficiency and true shooting percentage numbers are up some so far, which could be a function of the extra free throws — or simply dropping some of the league’s weakest teams from the bubble format. Either way, it seems likely that things will smooth out some, especially once the playoffs begin.
WE SHOULD HAVE KNOWN THIS MIGHT HAPPEN: Dallas struggling to close the deal
Statistically, the Mavericks aren’t merely the NBA’s best offense this season — they’re quietly one of the best offenses in the history of the sport.
That reality likely gets overlooked for a couple reasons. For starters, while Dallas was a sexy pick to compete for a playoff spot before the season, the club is still working its way onto people’s radar screens. And much of that has to do with the Mavs being led by a pair of young players, in second-year stud Luka Dončić and All-Star Kristaps Porziņģis, who made his return from a torn ACL to begin the campaign.
When it comes down to it, the growing pains of those two — specifically at the end of close games — might also have something to do with why Dallas isn’t seen as the offensive juggernaut it is.
In fairness to Dončić and Porziņģis, the Mavericks did shape up some in their come-from-behind victory on Tuesday to knock off the Kings in overtime. But prior to that comeback, the Mavs had blown their first two games in the bubble — including a 7-point lead in the last minute of regulation against the Rockets — after holding double-digit leads in each. In fact, their 13 losses in games they once held double-digit leads in are tied for the most in the NBA, according to ESPN Stats & Information Group.
We touched on some of this in November, when the numbers were already beginning to show some late-game turbulence; the Mavs’ offense had a tendency to fall off a cliff when pressure increased. While they rank No. 1 in offense by a wide margin generally, they fall all the way to 28th in the clutch. The biggest factor there: Dončić and Porziņģis, who take most attempts in key moments, rank 54th and 56th in effective field-goal rate out of the 57 players who’ve launched 40 shots in the clutch.
Both guys are guilty at times of forcing shots when things slow down, which bogs down an offense that otherwise moves the ball very well in other stages of its games. Interestingly, Dallas looks almost certain to finish as the No. 7 seed in the West. That would give the Mavs a first-round meeting with the Clippers, who arguably have the league’s best two-way closing lineup — and know how to score when it counts.
“We’re a young team,” said Dončić, who had a huge 34-20-12 triple-double in the Tuesday win over the Kings but finished the loss against Houston 1-for-7 for 2 points over the last 10 minutes.
They’ll have to grow up fast to make some noise in the postseason. Otherwise, it could make for a quick trip back home.
Check out our latest NBA predictions.


fivethirthyeight--2020-08-05--Biden Is Polling Better Than Clinton At Her Peak

Election Day is now just three months away , and the overall trajectory of the race hasn ’ t changed much recently : Joe Biden continues to hold a sizable lead over President Trump .
Biden is now up by 8 percentage points in FiveThirtyEight ’ s national polling average , and he has an advantage of 5 points or more in several key battleground states like Florida , Michigan , Pennsylvania and Wisconsin .
Faced with these numbers , though , a lot of people — Republicans , Democrats and people with no particular party affiliation — raise a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Hillary Clinton leading in the polls too ?
” Well , yes .
But not quite like this .
We compared Biden ’ s standing to where Clinton was at this point in the polls four years ago .
We specifically chose this point in the cycle in 2016 because it ’ s about where Clinton hit her peak — on Aug. 7 , 2016 , following the Democratic National Convention , Clinton had a 7.5-point lead over Trump in national polls .
Clinton never topped that lead .
But as you can @ @ @ @ @ @ @ at her post-convention peak , Clinton ’ s lead over Trump still wasn ’ t as large as Biden ’ s is now .
This means that the sizable advantage Biden currently holds isn ’ t the product of a convention-induced sugar high but rather the larger electoral environment , which is very poor for Trump .
That ’ s no guarantee Biden ’ s lead will hold — it ’ s hard to know what the post-convention bounces will look like this year , for example , given that they ’ re @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
But Biden seems to be starting from a better baseline than Clinton .
Crucially , he enjoys a higher level of average support than Clinton ever did .
Clinton led in most national polls , but was typically garnering support only in the low- to mid-40s .
Biden ’ s share has been hovering around 50 percent .
As a result , some of the uncertainty about the trajectory of the Trump-Biden race might be reduced , in part because there are simply fewer voters who haven ’ t made up their @ @ @ @ @ @ @ third-party voters than in 2016 .
Combined , Clinton and Trump had secured 84 percent of support , on average , in national polls in early August 2016 .
By comparison , Biden and Trump currently combine for 92 percent .
Things are mostly good for Biden at the state-level , too .
Just as he does nationally , Biden enjoys more overall support than Clinton in each of the battleground states we looked at .
But there are a couple of significant caveats : As the chart below shows , there are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ margin against Trump is actually lower than Clinton ’ s was at this point in 2016 .
( Although remember , we ’ re comparing Biden to Clinton at her peak nationally . )
Let ’ s start with the eight states where Biden has more support and better margins .
These are states where Biden is doing much better than Clinton , even at her peak .
In Arizona and Texas , for instance , Biden is attracting about 6 to 10 more percentage points in total support than Clinton and has @ @ @ @ @ @ @ In other words , Biden may actually be a slight favorite in Arizona and Texas may end up a toss-up , which definitely wasn ’ t the case in 2016 .
And in a perennial swing state like Florida that has shown signs of getting redder in recent years , Biden is attracting about 4 more points in overall support , and his margin over Trump is better , too .
If Biden were to win Florida , that would undoubtedly narrow Trump ’ s path to reelection .
But there are also @ @ @ @ @ @ @ over Trump is smaller than Clinton ’ s was at this point in the campaign .
In Michigan , Pennsylvania and Wisconsin , for example , Biden ’ s margin over Trump is about 2 to 4 points smaller than Clinton ’ s was .
But he ’ s also at or very close to 50 percent in each of those states , which wasn ’ t the case for Clinton .
Still , it ’ s notable that Biden ’ s margins tend to be lower than Clinton ’ s in many @ @ @ @ @ @ @ be due to Trump ’ s resiliency in the region , but also perhaps a shift in the pollster methodologies : In 2016 , many polls in these states underestimated Trump ’ s support in part because they didn ’ t weight by education , an important consideration as white voters without a college degree broke strongly for the president .
All in all , national and battleground state polling at this point suggests that Biden is in a better position to win 270 electoral votes — and the presidency — than Clinton @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Just consider this simple arithmetic : If we take all the swing states in which Biden leads by at least 5 percentage points and add their electoral votes to those from the “ safely blue ” states that always go Democratic , Biden has 307 electoral votes .
So if the race were to tighten by a few percentage points and Biden were to lose every other state , even the ones where he currently holds smaller leads — such as in Arizona and North Carolina — Biden would still win the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ cushier margin than Clinton ’ s 272 electoral votes at this same point in 2016 .
That said , while fewer undecided and third-party voters will likely make the polls less volatile and therefore decrease uncertainty , other factors unique to 2020 add uncertainty : namely , the novel coronavirus , the economic collapse and the nationwide scramble to make voting safe during a pandemic .
There ’ s a long way to go in this campaign .
We still have to see how the public responds to Biden ’ s vice presidential @ @ @ @ @ @ @ don ’ t know what course the pandemic will take or how the economy will change .
For now , the fallout from the coronavirus appears to be hurting Trump ’ s chances , but that ’ s not written in stone — and neither is Biden ’ s sizable edge .
If the race tightens a little , Biden would likely still be a decent favorite .
If the race tightens more than that — and it could — Trump can win a second term .

Election Day is now just three months away, and the overall trajectory of the race hasn’t changed much recently: Joe Biden continues to hold a sizable lead over President Trump. Biden is now up by 8 percentage points in FiveThirtyEight’s national polling average, and he has an advantage of 5 points or more in several key battleground states like Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
Faced with these numbers, though, a lot of people — Republicans, Democrats and people with no particular party affiliation — raise a reasonable question: “Wasn’t Hillary Clinton leading in the polls too?”
Well, yes. But not quite like this. We compared Biden’s standing to where Clinton was at this point in the polls four years ago. We specifically chose this point in the cycle in 2016 because it’s about where Clinton hit her peak — on Aug. 7, 2016, following the Democratic National Convention, Clinton had a 7.5-point lead over Trump in national polls.
Clinton never topped that lead. But as you can see in the chart below, even at her post-convention peak, Clinton’s lead over Trump still wasn’t as large as Biden’s is now.
This means that the sizable advantage Biden currently holds isn’t the product of a convention-induced sugar high but rather the larger electoral environment, which is very poor for Trump. That’s no guarantee Biden’s lead will hold — it’s hard to know what the post-convention bounces will look like this year, for example, given that they’re remote affairs and scheduled back to back.
But Biden seems to be starting from a better baseline than Clinton. Crucially, he enjoys a higher level of average support than Clinton ever did.
Clinton led in most national polls, but was typically garnering support only in the low- to mid-40s. Biden’s share has been hovering around 50 percent. As a result, some of the uncertainty about the trajectory of the Trump-Biden race might be reduced, in part because there are simply fewer voters who haven’t made up their minds and because signs point to fewer third-party voters than in 2016. Combined, Clinton and Trump had secured 84 percent of support, on average, in national polls in early August 2016. By comparison, Biden and Trump currently combine for 92 percent.
Things are mostly good for Biden at the state-level, too. Just as he does nationally, Biden enjoys more overall support than Clinton in each of the battleground states we looked at. But there are a couple of significant caveats: As the chart below shows, there are several key states where Biden’s margin against Trump is actually lower than Clinton’s was at this point in 2016. (Although remember, we’re comparing Biden to Clinton at her peak nationally.)
Let’s start with the eight states where Biden has more support and better margins. These are states where Biden is doing much better than Clinton, even at her peak. In Arizona and Texas, for instance, Biden is attracting about 6 to 10 more percentage points in total support than Clinton and has consistently topped her margin against Trump. In other words, Biden may actually be a slight favorite in Arizona and Texas may end up a toss-up, which definitely wasn’t the case in 2016. And in a perennial swing state like Florida that has shown signs of getting redder in recent years, Biden is attracting about 4 more points in overall support, and his margin over Trump is better, too. If Biden were to win Florida, that would undoubtedly narrow Trump’s path to reelection.
But there are also nine states where Biden’s margin over Trump is smaller than Clinton’s was at this point in the campaign. In Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, for example, Biden’s margin over Trump is about 2 to 4 points smaller than Clinton’s was. But he’s also at or very close to 50 percent in each of those states, which wasn’t the case for Clinton. Still, it’s notable that Biden’s margins tend to be lower than Clinton’s in many Rust Belt battleground states. That could be due to Trump’s resiliency in the region, but also perhaps a shift in the pollster methodologies: In 2016, many polls in these states underestimated Trump’s support in part because they didn’t weight by education, an important consideration as white voters without a college degree broke strongly for the president.
All in all, national and battleground state polling at this point suggests that Biden is in a better position to win 270 electoral votes — and the presidency — than Clinton was at this point in the cycle. Just consider this simple arithmetic: If we take all the swing states in which Biden leads by at least 5 percentage points and add their electoral votes to those from the “safely blue” states that always go Democratic, Biden has 307 electoral votes. So if the race were to tighten by a few percentage points and Biden were to lose every other state, even the ones where he currently holds smaller leads — such as in Arizona and North Carolina — Biden would still win the presidency. That’s a much cushier margin than Clinton’s 272 electoral votes at this same point in 2016.
That said, while fewer undecided and third-party voters will likely make the polls less volatile and therefore decrease uncertainty, other factors unique to 2020 add uncertainty: namely, the novel coronavirus, the economic collapse and the nationwide scramble to make voting safe during a pandemic. There’s a long way to go in this campaign. We still have to see how the public responds to Biden’s vice presidential pick and the party conventions. We don’t know what course the pandemic will take or how the economy will change. For now, the fallout from the coronavirus appears to be hurting Trump’s chances, but that’s not written in stone — and neither is Biden’s sizable edge. If the race tightens a little, Biden would likely still be a decent favorite. If the race tightens more than that — and it could — Trump can win a second term.