fivethirthyeight--2020-12-21--The Jets Won The Battle And Lost The War

sara.ziegler ( Sara Ziegler , sports editor ) : What a weekend in the NFL .
Week 15 gave us an epic Saints-Chiefs matchup that could just be a Super Bowl preview , an entertaining tilt between former Oklahoma Sooners Jalen Hurts and Kyler Murray , and an AFC East title won by the Buffalo Bills for the first time since 1995 .
Oh , right .
The New York Jets won a game … and likely cost themselves the first pick in the draft .
Mike … how ya feeling about that ?
Salfino ( Michael Salfino , FiveThirtyEight @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in trouble after Clemson ’ s Trevor Lawrence threw an interception against Notre Dame , and I got a call from a fellow Jets fan asking whether Lawrence was even worth it .
Then Lawrence immediately went on to look like the best QB ever .
It was then I knew something weird was going to happen .
I did not think that “ something weird ” would be the Jets beating the Rams , who came into the game ranked ninth since 2001 in yardage differential through 13 games .
joshua.hermsmeyer ( @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The Wikipedia entry for “ Pyrrhic victory ” now has a photo of the Jets-Rams score .
Salfino : The really weird thing is that the Jets basically kicked the Rams ’ ass .
It was not a fluke .
It was probably the most shocking win by a winless team this late in a season in history .
And it was tied for the second-biggest upset in franchise history behind only Super Bowl III .
The big question after the 23-year-old QB with obvious traits just had an 88.5 Total Quarterback Rating @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Should you just rebuild around Sam Darnold ?
He ’ s been dealt one of the worst hands of any prospect in history , I think we can all agree .
sara.ziegler : The Darnold roller coaster has really been something .
neil : Would we expect him to be better or worse than Ohio State ’ s Justin Fields going forward ?
Salfino : Neil , I don ’ t think Fields is the No .
2 pick anymore .
The BYU kid ( Zach Wilson ) seems to have supplanted Fields @ @ @ @ @ @ @ If we ’ re unsure who the No .
2 QB is in this draft this late , that doesn ’ t seem to bode well for Fields or The BYU Kid .
Salfino : I think the Jets should draft Oregon tackle Penei Sewell at No .
2 .
Mekhi Becton , who just got the better of Aaron Donald , is already maybe the best tackle in football .
Give Darnold bookends .
joshua.hermsmeyer : Darnold has one of the worst QBRs in the NFL this year , his third in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ be the correct sample to start to make decisions from .
Salfino : I hear you , Josh , but how do you separate the player from the environment in the NFL ?
I don ’ t believe in true skill level being reflected in NFL stats .
I believe in traits , which Darnold does have .
joshua.hermsmeyer : I think it ’ s time to move on .
Salfino : I ’ m not disagreeing .
I wouldn ’ t bang the table for Darnold .
It depends on what the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is an interesting question here of when to let go of the promise you thought you saw in a player .
We ’ re seeing that play out some in Philadelphia right now , with the Carson Wentz vs. Jalen Hurts situation .
It ’ s hard to argue with Hurts so far , even though he ’ s only had two games as the starter .
neil : The Eagles will trade Wentz to some team where he will probably play better .
Because Mike is right — so much is situational @ @ @ @ @ @ @ there is no way he ’ d be better than Hurts going forward in Philly right now . )
joshua.hermsmeyer : Darnold would make a fine backup in New York .
As would Wentz in Philly .
Salfino : Wentz is also about to turn 28 , which should really inform his future projection , IMO .
The trouble for Wentz is that another QB came in and lit a fire .
That ’ s never happened to Darnold .
The Eagles seem to be in cap hell if they move on from @ @ @ @ @ @ @ me that cap hell turns out to be something teams easily escape .
joshua.hermsmeyer : I think the cap is mostly fungible , but there are real constraints .
The constraints don ’ t , however , need to really impact your decision-making at the most important position .
Just do what ’ s best for the team at QB .
neil : One important note is they ’ ll have to sink cap space into Wentz ( or the Wentz dead-cap money pit ) either way next season .
joshua.hermsmeyer : The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of comity .
Boo hoo .
Salfino : The Eagles are still paying only X dollars at QB , right ?
Does it make a difference ?
What they waste on Wentz they save on Hurts .
neil : Right , you use that cap space whether Wentz is there or not .
I guess the only benefit is having Wentz as a backup in case of emergency ( hi , Nick Foles ) vs. what Josh alludes to , the locker-room issue he could create .
joshua.hermsmeyer : Why exactly is it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ every other position to compete and — if it helps the team — to sit , but not the QB ?
neil : Because no other position gets a “ W-L-T ” column on his Pro-Football-Reference.com stat table .
joshua.hermsmeyer : All the more reason to have more than one .
sara.ziegler : For the Jets , I think it would have been obvious what to do with Darnold if they could have drafted Lawrence .
Now , without that “ generational ” quarterback , it does seem like it will be a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ can all enjoy .
neil : Going back to how the Jets are in this situation : Yes , they won .
But they ’ re tied now with Jacksonville for the worst record — and there ’ s something funny about the tiebreaker being whoever has the worst strength of schedule .
“ Yes , you ’ re 1-15 , but you did it against a harder schedule , dammit !
” Salfino : I believe it ’ s virtually impossible for the Jets to catch the Jaguars in SOS .
neil @ @ @ @ @ @ @ scheduling process that was set in motion a year ( or more ! )
ago .
Then again , they can ’ t complain too much .
They controlled their own destiny .
Whatever it is for tanking .
Salfino : Doug Pederson says he ’ ll have a decision soon on the Eagles QB for Week 16 .
🙂 The Eagles can still make the playoffs ( for no good reason ) .
I ’ m pretty sure Hurts is the decision .
Salfino : Who ’ s the favorite in the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ It ’ s still Football Team , at 75 percent .
But they didn ’ t help their case Sunday .
The Giants helped them out later , though the head-to-head tiebreaker still held by New York looms large .
joshua.hermsmeyer : Sad to see the Joe Judge coach of the year talk wane .
Regrettable .
sara.ziegler : LOL , who could have seen that coming .
neil : And the Dave Gettleman GM of the Year talk as well !
Salfino : The coaches are running gassers at the Meadowlands right @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Cowboys were the only NFC East team to win this week , which was pretty much par for the course in this division .
sara.ziegler : So , speaking of the playoff picture , it is now substantially clearer .
In the NFC , the Packers have a 79 percent chance , according to our model , to grab the all-important first-round bye ; the Cardinals are in command of the seventh seed , though the Bears still have a little hope ; and the only real drama is that mess in the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the Chiefs have all but locked up the first-round bye , while the battle for the No .
7 spot is likely coming down to the wire between the Dolphins and Ravens .
How do you guys see this all shaking out ?
Who ’ s getting in ?
Salfino : The Dolphins control their destiny ?
Is this correct ?
neil : Yes , they ’ re in if they win out .
joshua.hermsmeyer : They will have to beat the Bills in Week 17. joshua.hermsmeyer : It ’ s a similar @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Week 17 .
I ’ m not sure .
sara.ziegler : The Dolphins have to beat the Raiders this week , too , and I have no idea how that game will go .
The Ravens have only the Giants and Bengals .
Salfino : The Dolphins are underwater in net yards per pass play ( gained minus allowed ) .
They ’ re living off randomness that has boosted their yards per point for and against .
But this is the Patriots model : Don ’ t beat yourself .
Brian Flores @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
joshua.hermsmeyer : The Ravens should win out .
If they do , and Miami wins out , and the Browns win out , the Ravens have a 68 percent chance of making the playoffs , while the Browns and the Dolphins are in , according to our model .
Salfino : What is the quote by Belichick ?
Eighty percent of games are not won , they are lost ?
neil : And 90 percent of the game is half mental .
Salfino : That can be true !
Yogi was ahead @ @ @ @ @ @ @ only the Jets knew their Belichick .
neil : They only spent a few hours with him as head coach , Josh .
Not enough time to really learn .
So … are the Ravens getting in ?
Or the Dolphins ?
( Or both … and the Colts are out ? )
Who do you have ?
neil : I want to say the Ravens are too good to not make it .
They ’ re second in the entire league in SRS !
On paper , this is a potential Super @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are good .
They ’ re in .
It depends if the Bills rest , IMO .
joshua.hermsmeyer : I give a slight edge to the Ravens , I guess , due to the easier schedule .
But it ’ s close .
sara.ziegler : And in the NFC ?
Are the Cardinals a lock for the seventh seed ?
Or do the Bears have a rally in them ?
neil : The Bears have shown new life under Mitchie T. joshua.hermsmeyer : If the Bears make the playoffs , jobs will be @ @ @ @ @ @ @ future will be destroyed .
Salfino : Mitch Trubisky has been fine .
Not great , but way better than Foles .
sara.ziegler : How you play against the Vikings is not indicative of how good you actually are , FWIW .
Salfino : The Bears are in no-man ’ s land at QB , so you just try to win , IMO .
David Montgomery is having one of the most shocking finishing kicks in NFL history .
Guy was a slug for his first two seasons , and now he looks @ @ @ @ @ @ @ last two games for them are quite winnable , too .
The Jags — ’ nuff said — and a Packer team that might have the No .
1 seed locked up by Week 17 , at home .
joshua.hermsmeyer : So many Week 17 games where one team potentially has no skin in the game .
What a nightmare for the NFL .
Salfino : It would be hilarious if the Jaguars beat the Bears .
Salfino : I ’ m on to 2021 .
Not even thinking about Lawrence now .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ out that Jax ’ s Week 17 opponent is Indy — a team they have actually beaten already this year !
sara.ziegler : Remember Week 1 ?
We were so innocent then .
joshua.hermsmeyer : And the Colts have the Steelers this week .
I expect that to be a real game .
Salfino : Though Indy may pack it in Week 17. joshua.hermsmeyer : I believe the Colts losing to the Steelers is one of the best shots for Baltimore to make the tournament .
If they win out and the Colts @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
sara.ziegler : So there ’ s still a lot riding on these games !
And with the single bye this year , even the top teams have something to play for ( at least in Week 16 ) .
neil : I think the idea of Week 17 starters resting becomes more interesting this year , with only one bye to be had .
Salfino : It ’ s a short week somehow for the Steelers .
sara.ziegler : Did the Steelers have any regular-length weeks this season ?
neil : That @ @ @ @ @ @ @ irregular weeks by a team in NFL history ?
It would be fitting for the first NFL season ever where there was a game on literally every day of the week at some point .
sara.ziegler : Friday football in the NFL — and this is a game that was planned that way !
No COVID-19 to blame .
I want to wrap up this week ’ s chat with a check-in on the league awards .
We ’ ve talked , of course , about Russell Wilson ’ s up-and-down MVP journey @ @ @ @ @ @ @ this year ?
Who should it be : Aaron Rodgers or Patrick Mahomes ?
Or , Josh , is your vote for Dalvin Cook ?
joshua.hermsmeyer : Cook isn ’ t even on the board !
neil : Josh Allen deserves some love , too .
But it will be Mahomes , I think ?
Salfino : Josh loves RBs so much , I know .
Wilson has been turned back into game manager so he ’ s out .
joshua.hermsmeyer : The site I ’ m looking at has the following odds @ @ @ @ @ @ @ y ’ all see him just destroy that Lions guy with the stiff-arm ?
?
Salfino : I ’ m surprised Mahomes is such a favorite .
I do think he ’ s deserving — he ’ s the best player .
He ’ s running for his life most weeks , while Rodgers probably has the best pass protection in football .
It ’ s not like the Chiefs are a juggernaut , either .
They ’ re the first team ever to win six straight by 6 points or fewer .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ are in their careers matter at all to the vote ?
Like Rodgers might get it as recognition of his career ?
Salfino : Well , Rodgers has already won the MVP twice .
It ’ s not like he ’ s Cary Grant never winning best actor .
joshua.hermsmeyer : I don ’ t think it should … but maybe it will .
neil : I don ’ t think the NFL MVP has quite as much voter fatigue ( “ I ’ m tired of giving it to LeBron ” ) @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to this guy for his career ” as the NBA award does at least .
Salfino : Mahomes at 12 years younger can pretty much match Rodgers ’ s trophy case if he wins MVP this year .
And beat it if he wins the Super Bowl again .
And Mahomes is beating his 2018 MVP season in most key stats .
But the betting markets are never wrong , I ’ m told , so I guess it ’ s Mahomes .
🙂 joshua.hermsmeyer : The election betting markets have no place @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Salfino : What do you guys think of the best player being MVP , case closed ?
Make Mike Trout the MVP every year .
Mickey Mantle should have been for about eight straight years .
So Mahomes just is the MVP for the foreseeable future .
joshua.hermsmeyer : I ’ m here for it .
neil : I like some wiggle room for storytelling , or being the best player on a contending team .
But that ’ s not really much of an issue in football .
If your QB has @ @ @ @ @ @ @ almost certainly also have one , too .
Salfino : We ’ re not smart enough for wiggle room , Neil .
neil : Hah .
Well , Mike Trout ’ s curse is that an all-time great baseball player can only move the needle so much .
Mahomes having a Trout season will never not lead to the Chiefs being good .
joshua.hermsmeyer : Almost makes you want to write an article about Mahomes ’ s greatness .

The Jets Won The Battle And Lost The War
sara.ziegler (Sara Ziegler, sports editor): What a weekend in the NFL. Week 15 gave us an epic Saints-Chiefs matchup that could just be a Super Bowl preview, an entertaining tilt between former Oklahoma Sooners Jalen Hurts and Kyler Murray, and an AFC East title won by the Buffalo Bills for the first time since 1995.
Am I missing anything?
Oh, right. The New York Jets won a game … and likely cost themselves the first pick in the draft. Mike … how ya feeling about that?
Salfino (Michael Salfino, FiveThirtyEight contributor): I knew we were in trouble after Clemson’s Trevor Lawrence threw an interception against Notre Dame, and I got a call from a fellow Jets fan asking whether Lawrence was even worth it. Then Lawrence immediately went on to look like the best QB ever. It was then I knew something weird was going to happen.
I did not think that “something weird” would be the Jets beating the Rams, who came into the game ranked ninth since 2001 in yardage differential through 13 games.
joshua.hermsmeyer (Josh Hermsmeyer, NFL analyst): The Wikipedia entry for “Pyrrhic victory” now has a photo of the Jets-Rams score.
(This is a lie.)
neil (Neil Paine, senior sportswriter): LOL
Salfino: The really weird thing is that the Jets basically kicked the Rams’ ass. It was not a fluke. It was probably the most shocking win by a winless team this late in a season in history. And it was tied for the second-biggest upset in franchise history behind only Super Bowl III.
The big question after the 23-year-old QB with obvious traits just had an 88.5 Total Quarterback Rating against the best defense in football: Should you just rebuild around Sam Darnold? He’s been dealt one of the worst hands of any prospect in history, I think we can all agree.
sara.ziegler: The Darnold roller coaster has really been something.
neil: Would we expect him to be better or worse than Ohio State’s Justin Fields going forward?
Salfino: Neil, I don’t think Fields is the No. 2 pick anymore. The BYU kid (Zach Wilson) seems to have supplanted Fields after the Northwestern hiccup.
neil: If we’re unsure who the No. 2 QB is in this draft this late, that doesn’t seem to bode well for Fields or The BYU Kid.
Salfino: I think the Jets should draft Oregon tackle Penei Sewell at No. 2. Mekhi Becton, who just got the better of Aaron Donald, is already maybe the best tackle in football. Give Darnold bookends.
joshua.hermsmeyer: Darnold has one of the worst QBRs in the NFL this year, his third in the league. I think that would be the correct sample to start to make decisions from.
Not a sample of a single game.
Salfino: I hear you, Josh, but how do you separate the player from the environment in the NFL? I don’t believe in true skill level being reflected in NFL stats. I believe in traits, which Darnold does have.
joshua.hermsmeyer: I think it’s time to move on.
Salfino: I’m not disagreeing. I wouldn’t bang the table for Darnold. It depends on what the new coach thinks.
sara.ziegler: There is an interesting question here of when to let go of the promise you thought you saw in a player. We’re seeing that play out some in Philadelphia right now, with the Carson Wentz vs. Jalen Hurts situation. It’s hard to argue with Hurts so far, even though he’s only had two games as the starter.
neil: The Eagles will trade Wentz to some team where he will probably play better. Because Mike is right — so much is situational in addition to talent. (But there is no way he’d be better than Hurts going forward in Philly right now.)
joshua.hermsmeyer: Darnold would make a fine backup in New York. As would Wentz in Philly.
Salfino: Wentz is also about to turn 28, which should really inform his future projection, IMO.
The trouble for Wentz is that another QB came in and lit a fire. That’s never happened to Darnold. The Eagles seem to be in cap hell if they move on from Wentz, but it also seems to me that cap hell turns out to be something teams easily escape.
joshua.hermsmeyer: I think the cap is mostly fungible, but there are real constraints. The constraints don’t, however, need to really impact your decision-making at the most important position. Just do what’s best for the team at QB.
neil: One important note is they’ll have to sink cap space into Wentz (or the Wentz dead-cap money pit) either way next season.
joshua.hermsmeyer: The complaint you will hear is a lack of comity. Boo hoo.
Salfino: The Eagles are still paying only X dollars at QB, right? Does it make a difference? What they waste on Wentz they save on Hurts.
neil: Right, you use that cap space whether Wentz is there or not. I guess the only benefit is having Wentz as a backup in case of emergency (hi, Nick Foles) vs. what Josh alludes to, the locker-room issue he could create.
joshua.hermsmeyer: Why exactly is it that we expect every other player at every other position to compete and — if it helps the team — to sit, but not the QB?
neil: Because no other position gets a “W-L-T” column on his Pro-Football-Reference.com stat table.
joshua.hermsmeyer: All the more reason to have more than one.
sara.ziegler: For the Jets, I think it would have been obvious what to do with Darnold if they could have drafted Lawrence. Now, without that “generational” quarterback, it does seem like it will be a much messier situation.
Which non-Jets fans can all enjoy.
Salfino: Agree, Sara.
neil: Going back to how the Jets are in this situation: Yes, they won. But they’re tied now with Jacksonville for the worst record — and there’s something funny about the tiebreaker being whoever has the worst strength of schedule.
“Yes, you’re 1-15, but you did it against a harder schedule, dammit!”
Salfino: I believe it’s virtually impossible for the Jets to catch the Jaguars in SOS.
neil: They’re victims of a scheduling process that was set in motion a year (or more!) ago.
Then again, they can’t complain too much. They controlled their own destiny.
Or anti-destiny.
Whatever it is for tanking.
Salfino: Doug Pederson says he’ll have a decision soon on the Eagles QB for Week 16. 🙂
neil: “Decision.” Sure.
The Eagles can still make the playoffs (for no good reason). I’m pretty sure Hurts is the decision.
Salfino: Who’s the favorite in the NFC Least, Neil?
neil: It’s still Football Team, at 75 percent. But they didn’t help their case Sunday. The Giants helped them out later, though the head-to-head tiebreaker still held by New York looms large.
joshua.hermsmeyer: Sad to see the Joe Judge coach of the year talk wane. Regrettable.
sara.ziegler: LOL, who could have seen that coming.
neil: And the Dave Gettleman GM of the Year talk as well!
Salfino: The coaches are running gassers at the Meadowlands right now.
neil: The formerly last-place Cowboys were the only NFC East team to win this week, which was pretty much par for the course in this division.
sara.ziegler: So, speaking of the playoff picture, it is now substantially clearer. In the NFC, the Packers have a 79 percent chance, according to our model, to grab the all-important first-round bye; the Cardinals are in command of the seventh seed, though the Bears still have a little hope; and the only real drama is that mess in the NFC East. In the AFC, the Chiefs have all but locked up the first-round bye, while the battle for the No. 7 spot is likely coming down to the wire between the Dolphins and Ravens. How do you guys see this all shaking out? Who’s getting in?
Salfino: The Dolphins control their destiny? Is this correct?
neil: Yes, they’re in if they win out.
joshua.hermsmeyer: They will have to beat the Bills in Week 17.
Salfino: Will the Bills care?
joshua.hermsmeyer: It’s a similar question with the Steelers and Browns in Week 17. I’m not sure.
sara.ziegler: The Dolphins have to beat the Raiders this week, too, and I have no idea how that game will go. The Ravens have only the Giants and Bengals.
Salfino: The Dolphins are underwater in net yards per pass play (gained minus allowed). They’re living off randomness that has boosted their yards per point for and against. But this is the Patriots model: Don’t beat yourself. Brian Flores is a chip off the old block.
joshua.hermsmeyer: The Ravens should win out. If they do, and Miami wins out, and the Browns win out, the Ravens have a 68 percent chance of making the playoffs, while the Browns and the Dolphins are in, according to our model.
Salfino: What is the quote by Belichick? Eighty percent of games are not won, they are lost?
neil: And 90 percent of the game is half mental.
Salfino: That can be true! Yogi was ahead of us all.
joshua.hermsmeyer: If only the Jets knew their Belichick.
neil: They only spent a few hours with him as head coach, Josh. Not enough time to really learn.
sara.ziegler: 🤣
So … are the Ravens getting in? Or the Dolphins? (Or both … and the Colts are out?) Who do you have?
neil: I want to say the Ravens are too good to not make it. They’re second in the entire league in SRS!
On paper, this is a potential Super Bowl team.
Salfino: The Colts are good. They’re in. It depends if the Bills rest, IMO.
joshua.hermsmeyer: I give a slight edge to the Ravens, I guess, due to the easier schedule. But it’s close.
sara.ziegler: And in the NFC? Are the Cardinals a lock for the seventh seed? Or do the Bears have a rally in them?
neil: The Bears have shown new life under Mitchie T.
joshua.hermsmeyer: If the Bears make the playoffs, jobs will be saved, but a franchise’s future will be destroyed.
sara.ziegler: LOL
Salfino: Mitch Trubisky has been fine. Not great, but way better than Foles.
sara.ziegler: How you play against the Vikings is not indicative of how good you actually are, FWIW.
Salfino: The Bears are in no-man’s land at QB, so you just try to win, IMO.
David Montgomery is having one of the most shocking finishing kicks in NFL history. Guy was a slug for his first two seasons, and now he looks like an All-Pro.
sara.ziegler: It’s his fine Iowa State education.
neil: These last two games for them are quite winnable, too. The Jags — ’nuff said — and a Packer team that might have the No. 1 seed locked up by Week 17, at home.
joshua.hermsmeyer: So many Week 17 games where one team potentially has no skin in the game. What a nightmare for the NFL.
Salfino: It would be hilarious if the Jaguars beat the Bears.
neil: Wishful thinking by Mike.
Salfino: I’m on to 2021. Not even thinking about Lawrence now.
neil: Lol
Although also, let’s point out that Jax’s Week 17 opponent is Indy — a team they have actually beaten already this year!
(The only team they can say that about.)
sara.ziegler: Remember Week 1? We were so innocent then.
joshua.hermsmeyer: And the Colts have the Steelers this week. I expect that to be a real game.
Salfino: Though Indy may pack it in Week 17.
joshua.hermsmeyer: I believe the Colts losing to the Steelers is one of the best shots for Baltimore to make the tournament. If they win out and the Colts go 1-1, the Ravens are in.
sara.ziegler: So there’s still a lot riding on these games! And with the single bye this year, even the top teams have something to play for (at least in Week 16).
neil: I think the idea of Week 17 starters resting becomes more interesting this year, with only one bye to be had.
Salfino: It’s a short week somehow for the Steelers.
sara.ziegler: Did the Steelers have any regular-length weeks this season?
neil: That’s a great question. Most irregular weeks by a team in NFL history?
It would be fitting for the first NFL season ever where there was a game on literally every day of the week at some point.
(Well, that will be true after Friday. Merry Christmas!)
sara.ziegler: Friday football in the NFL — and this is a game that was planned that way! No COVID-19 to blame.
I want to wrap up this week’s chat with a check-in on the league awards. We’ve talked, of course, about Russell Wilson’s up-and-down MVP journey. Will he at least get votes this year? Who should it be: Aaron Rodgers or Patrick Mahomes? Or, Josh, is your vote for Dalvin Cook?
joshua.hermsmeyer: Cook isn’t even on the board!
neil: Josh Allen deserves some love, too. But it will be Mahomes, I think?
Salfino: Josh loves RBs so much, I know. Wilson has been turned back into game manager so he’s out.
joshua.hermsmeyer: The site I’m looking at has the following odds for MVP:
Mahomes, 73.3 percent
Rodgers, 30.8 percent
Allen, 11.8 percent
Henry, 3.9 percent
neil: HENRY
Love it. Did y’all see him just destroy that Lions guy with the stiff-arm??
sara.ziegler: That was beautiful.
neil:
Derrick Henry with the MEAN stiff arm! 👑 📺: Watch #DETvsTEN on CBS pic.twitter.com/1jhPLFZncg — Tennessee Titans (@Titans) December 20, 2020
“Get OFF of me.”
Salfino: I’m surprised Mahomes is such a favorite. I do think he’s deserving — he’s the best player. He’s running for his life most weeks, while Rodgers probably has the best pass protection in football. It’s not like the Chiefs are a juggernaut, either. They’re the first team ever to win six straight by 6 points or fewer.
sara.ziegler: Does where Rodgers and Mahomes are in their careers matter at all to the vote? Like Rodgers might get it as recognition of his career?
Salfino: Well, Rodgers has already won the MVP twice. It’s not like he’s Cary Grant never winning best actor.
joshua.hermsmeyer: I don’t think it should … but maybe it will.
neil: I don’t think the NFL MVP has quite as much voter fatigue (“I’m tired of giving it to LeBron”) or “Let’s give it to this guy for his career” as the NBA award does at least.
Salfino: Mahomes at 12 years younger can pretty much match Rodgers’s trophy case if he wins MVP this year. And beat it if he wins the Super Bowl again.
And Mahomes is beating his 2018 MVP season in most key stats. But the betting markets are never wrong, I’m told, so I guess it’s Mahomes. 🙂
joshua.hermsmeyer: The election betting markets have no place in a discussion of rational marketplaces.
Salfino: What do you guys think of the best player being MVP, case closed? Make Mike Trout the MVP every year. Mickey Mantle should have been for about eight straight years. So Mahomes just is the MVP for the foreseeable future.
joshua.hermsmeyer: I’m here for it.
sara.ziegler: LOL
neil: I like some wiggle room for storytelling, or being the best player on a contending team. But that’s not really much of an issue in football. If your QB has a great season, your team will almost certainly also have one, too.
Salfino: We’re not smart enough for wiggle room, Neil.
neil: Hah. Well, Mike Trout’s curse is that an all-time great baseball player can only move the needle so much.
Mahomes having a Trout season will never not lead to the Chiefs being good.
joshua.hermsmeyer: Almost makes you want to write an article about Mahomes’s greatness.
neil: 😉
sara.ziegler: Shhhhhhhhh.
Check out our latest NFL predictions.


fivethirthyeight--2020-12-18--Even After Getting Vaccinated, You Could Still Infect Others

Now that the world has successfully completed history ’ s fastest development of a new vaccine , you might be wondering why we don ’ t always just make one this fast .
If the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines are safe and effective and the process to produce them didn ’ t cut any corners … well , why does it normally take around a decade to do something we just did in less than a year ?
The answer to that question is inextricably tied up with another question floating around : Once you get the vaccine , can @ @ @ @ @ @ @ life full of hugging people and not wearing a mask ?
Why are people hesitant to trust a COVID-19 vaccine ?
If only we knew for sure .
And we don ’ t know because there are some things that got skipped over when scientists went and made a vaccine faster than anyone thought possible .
Nice-to-know details were pushed to the back burner in a rush to make sure the new vaccines would be safe and effective .
And one of those details is whether the vaccines keep people from spreading COVID-19 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ do contract it from getting sick .
[ Related : Does It Matter Which COVID-19 Vaccine You Get ? ]
“ Theoretically , a vaccine should stop both the infection as well as the transmission and spread , ” said Dr. Purvi Parikh , an immunologist with the nonprofit Allergy & Asthma Network and a co-investigator on the Pfizer vaccine trials .
But we don ’ t know yet if that is true of the COVID-19 vaccines , she told me .
That ’ s because the focus of the clinical trials was @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of the time constraints .
Scientists wanted to know whether these things prevented illness .
They wanted to know whether the drugs were safe .
And they got those answers .
But getting those questions answered fast came at the expense of answering other questions — like whether vaccinated people can still spread the virus .
“ With a lot of other vaccines , you have years of data to analyze that , ” Parikh said .
So , experts are being careful — balancing their excitement and relief with caution that you @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Mode and return to a normal state of being .
They need a little more time to know for sure .
If someone was protected from symptoms of COVID-19 but still capable of spreading it , it wouldn ’ t be that shocking .
There ’ s a hypothetical mechanism that could allow this to happen biologically , said Deepta Bhattacharya , a professor of immunobiology at the University of Arizona .
And that mechanism is … well … it ’ s boogers and phlegm .
“ So , the virus enters in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ through your nose or your throat .
And those are protected by a mucous layer .
And so that mucous layer is good at slowing things down from getting into you .
But it also acts as a barrier for things like antibodies , and certainly for cells from getting out and meeting the virus as it comes in , ” he said .
[ Related : How To Make Sure People Come Back For Their Second COVID-19 Vaccine Dose ] Even if a vaccine has trained your immune cells to kick the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , they might not be able to neutralize the ones resting in your nose , on the other side of your mucous barriers .
Those COVID-19 viruses wouldn ’ t hurt you , but they still might be able to replicate and shed — coughed back out of your nose and mouth and into the community , where they could encounter your unvaccinated friends and loved ones .
We also have at least one example of a vaccine that can end up protecting the vaccinated person more than the community at large , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are notoriously imperfect in how well they protect against infection , as effectiveness rates fluctuate but tend to be between 40 and 60 percent .
That ’ s better than nothing for the people who get them — especially because we know that , even if you do get sick , having had the vaccine can result in a less severe illness .
But , Parikh said , that means that person — vaccinated , less susceptible , and less sick than they otherwise would have been — can still spread influenza around @ @ @ @ @ @ @ kind of thing scientists are worried about .
But they ’ re also optimistic .
“ I suspect the answer will be that people will not be able to transmit — that the virus will protect from transmission , because I think there will be enough antibodies made that will neutralize the virus even at the mucosal surface , ” said Dr. Warner Greene , senior investigator at Gladstone Institutes , an independent , nonprofit research lab in San Francisco .
“ But it is just a guess at this point , ” @ @ @ @ @ @ @ guess Bhattacharya agreed with .
The Pfizer and Moderna COVID-19 vaccines have , after all , turned out to be much more effective than those tricky flu vaccines .
“ If you have a vaccine that ’ s 95 percent effective at reducing symptoms , there is no universe in which it wouldn ’ t also reduce the likelihood of transmission .
It ’ s just not possible , ” he said .
“ So we ’ re not talking about whether it reduces transmission or not , we just want to get @ @ @ @ @ @ @ [ Related : What We Know About ‘ Long COVID ’ ] Figuring that out , though , is going to take some time .
Bhattacharya and Greene estimated months ; Parikh said six months to a year .
So , it ’ ll be a little longer until vaccinated individuals can let their guard down .
Even after you get your two jabs , you should wear a mask and avoid crowds and situations where you could spread the virus to a lot of other people .
The Centers for Disease Control @ @ @ @ @ @ @ looking at the households of vaccinated people to see what impact vaccination has on that kind of close contact spread , Bhattacharya told me .
And researchers with Pfizer and Moderna will continue to monitor trial participants to see if they ’ re spreading the virus , Parikh said .
But what we ’ re really waiting for is the real-world evidence that duplicates that study work .
“ What would be even more powerful is once the general population , enough of the people get vaccinated , and then we really see @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
“ That would be the greatest evidence.
” What the COVID-19 vaccine means for political battles to come

Now that the world has successfully completed history’s fastest development of a new vaccine, you might be wondering why we don’t always just make one this fast. If the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines are safe and effective and the process to produce them didn’t cut any corners … well, why does it normally take around a decade to do something we just did in less than a year?
The answer to that question is inextricably tied up with another question floating around: Once you get the vaccine, can you just go back to your normal life full of hugging people and not wearing a mask?
Why are people hesitant to trust a COVID-19 vaccine?
If only we knew for sure. And we don’t know because there are some things that got skipped over when scientists went and made a vaccine faster than anyone thought possible. Nice-to-know details were pushed to the back burner in a rush to make sure the new vaccines would be safe and effective. And one of those details is whether the vaccines keep people from spreading COVID-19 or whether they just keep those who do contract it from getting sick.
[Related: Does It Matter Which COVID-19 Vaccine You Get?]
“Theoretically, a vaccine should stop both the infection as well as the transmission and spread,” said Dr. Purvi Parikh, an immunologist with the nonprofit Allergy & Asthma Network and a co-investigator on the Pfizer vaccine trials.
But we don’t know yet if that is true of the COVID-19 vaccines, she told me. That’s because the focus of the clinical trials was narrow. It had to be because of the time constraints. Scientists wanted to know whether these things prevented illness. They wanted to know whether the drugs were safe. And they got those answers.
But getting those questions answered fast came at the expense of answering other questions — like whether vaccinated people can still spread the virus. “With a lot of other vaccines, you have years of data to analyze that,” Parikh said.
So, experts are being careful — balancing their excitement and relief with caution that you can’t just switch off 2020 Mode and return to a normal state of being. They need a little more time to know for sure.
If someone was protected from symptoms of COVID-19 but still capable of spreading it, it wouldn’t be that shocking. There’s a hypothetical mechanism that could allow this to happen biologically, said Deepta Bhattacharya, a professor of immunobiology at the University of Arizona. And that mechanism is … well … it’s boogers and phlegm.
“So, the virus enters in through the upper respiratory tracts, either through your nose or your throat. And those are protected by a mucous layer. And so that mucous layer is good at slowing things down from getting into you. But it also acts as a barrier for things like antibodies, and certainly for cells from getting out and meeting the virus as it comes in,” he said.
[Related: How To Make Sure People Come Back For Their Second COVID-19 Vaccine Dose]
Even if a vaccine has trained your immune cells to kick the butt of any SARS-CoV-2 viruses they spot, they might not be able to neutralize the ones resting in your nose, on the other side of your mucous barriers. Those COVID-19 viruses wouldn’t hurt you, but they still might be able to replicate and shed — coughed back out of your nose and mouth and into the community, where they could encounter your unvaccinated friends and loved ones.
We also have at least one example of a vaccine that can end up protecting the vaccinated person more than the community at large, Parikh told me. The flu vaccines are notoriously imperfect in how well they protect against infection, as effectiveness rates fluctuate but tend to be between 40 and 60 percent. That’s better than nothing for the people who get them — especially because we know that, even if you do get sick, having had the vaccine can result in a less severe illness. But, Parikh said, that means that person — vaccinated, less susceptible, and less sick than they otherwise would have been — can still spread influenza around the community.
That’s the kind of thing scientists are worried about. But they’re also optimistic. “I suspect the answer will be that people will not be able to transmit — that the virus will protect from transmission, because I think there will be enough antibodies made that will neutralize the virus even at the mucosal surface,” said Dr. Warner Greene, senior investigator at Gladstone Institutes, an independent, nonprofit research lab in San Francisco. “But it is just a guess at this point,” he added.
It’s a guess Bhattacharya agreed with. The Pfizer and Moderna COVID-19 vaccines have, after all, turned out to be much more effective than those tricky flu vaccines. “If you have a vaccine that’s 95 percent effective at reducing symptoms, there is no universe in which it wouldn’t also reduce the likelihood of transmission. It’s just not possible,” he said. “So we’re not talking about whether it reduces transmission or not, we just want to get an extent as to how much.”
[Related: What We Know About ‘Long COVID’]
Figuring that out, though, is going to take some time. Bhattacharya and Greene estimated months; Parikh said six months to a year. So, it’ll be a little longer until vaccinated individuals can let their guard down. Even after you get your two jabs, you should wear a mask and avoid crowds and situations where you could spread the virus to a lot of other people.
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is sponsoring studies that involve looking at the households of vaccinated people to see what impact vaccination has on that kind of close contact spread, Bhattacharya told me. And researchers with Pfizer and Moderna will continue to monitor trial participants to see if they’re spreading the virus, Parikh said. But what we’re really waiting for is the real-world evidence that duplicates that study work.
“What would be even more powerful is once the general population, enough of the people get vaccinated, and then we really see the rates drop,” Parikh said. “That would be the greatest evidence.”
What the COVID-19 vaccine means for political battles to come


fivethirthyeight--2020-12-22--Democrats And Republicans Should Argue More — Not Less

This holiday season , as COVID-19 cases spike across the country , many Americans will forgo family celebrations .
But for some people , these canceled plans may come with a silver lining : no squabbling about politics with in-laws , uncles or cousins .
Of course , most Americans avoid talking politics at family get-togethers in the first place because they worry that political disagreements will ruin the holidays .
But this is a mistake .
On the heels of a contentious presidential election , it may seem strange to be advocating for more , not less , partisan @ @ @ @ @ @ @ I don ’ t support the kind of social media sniping that has become a mainstay of public discourse .
But at its heart , political disagreement is actually critical to a democracy , so when we ’ re able to have these kinds of disagreements with people we know and trust , like family , we should .
Given the polarized era we live in , though , we find ourselves increasingly isolated from those we disagree with , and political disagreement is surprisingly rare .
Consider the results of a survey @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the American Enterprise Institute ’ s Survey Center on American Life , where I serve as director .
Nearly identical majorities of Democrats and Republicans ( 55 percent versus 53 percent , respectively ) reported having no one in their immediate social circle who had opposing political views .
This lack of political diversity is on the rise in our friendships and in our marriages , too .
According to a recent YouGov survey , all Americans ( but Democrats in particular ) are less likely now than they were four years ago @ @ @ @ @ @ @ different from their own .
Politics also increasingly influences whom we marry .
Our tendency to surround ourselves with people who have beliefs or backgrounds similar to our own is well-established in social science , and what ’ s more , it is not inherently a bad thing .
It would be difficult , for instance , to pass on our religious values and traditions or to maintain a shared cultural heritage if our social groups were completely random .
Historically , this has had benefits , too , with some research finding @ @ @ @ @ @ @ family are more likely to participate in politics .
But our recent survey casts doubt on how true that still is , finding that Americans with politically uniform social networks are not any more politically active than those with less uniform connections .
It ’ s true that interacting with people who disagree with us politically can be difficult .
In our social network survey , a majority ( 57 percent ) of Americans say it is a stressful and frustrating experience to talk about politics with people who disagree with them .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ to do with the fact that we ’ re just really bad at understanding our political opponents .
A study from 2015 , for instance , found that Americans routinely overestimated just how divided the Democratic and Republican parties were .
Across a range of issues , such as taxes , immigration and trade , people perceived their political opponents as being more extreme than they actually were .
And a 2018 survey of 2,100 Americans conducted by More in Common , an international think tank , revealed that Democrats and Republicans widely @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on basic questions of race , immigration and gender equality .
This misperception even extends to how we think about our political opponents ’ wealth , sexual and gender identity , religious beliefs or racial identity .
A 2017 study found that Americans held consistently biased perceptions about the type of people who identified as Democrat or Republican .
The irony here is that by studiously avoiding political disagreement , the potential for political conflict often becomes much worse .
We become less able to understand our political opponents or empathize with their @ @ @ @ @ @ @ inclined to believe their ideas are not just wrong-headed but dangerous .
This is bad for our democracy , creating an environment where many Americans are primed to accept misinformation and conspiracy theories .
There is hope , though .
In a novel experiment , a group of researchers working with NORC at the University of Chicago , recruited over 500 registered voters from diverse backgrounds to discuss politics with one another over a four-day period .
The researchers found that political discussions yielded a profound change in views about American democracy .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ experiment reported that “ the share of participants who said they thought American democracy worked well doubled , to 60 percent.
” And after just a few days of talking to people with different political beliefs , participants expressed considerably more favorable views about their political opponents as well .
But despite these promising results , scaling up this experiment would be difficult , and it ’ s unclear how lasting these changes will prove to be .
At the very least , availing ourselves of diverse political viewpoints may reaffirm our trust @ @ @ @ @ @ @ if we don ’ t like the outcomes .
Our survey showed that when our social circles include a more diverse mix of political beliefs , we are more open to argument and less ideologically extreme .
And , arguably , the best way to get to this point is to discuss — and disagree about — politics more .

This holiday season, as COVID-19 cases spike across the country, many Americans will forgo family celebrations. But for some people, these canceled plans may come with a silver lining: no squabbling about politics with in-laws, uncles or cousins.
Of course, most Americans avoid talking politics at family get-togethers in the first place because they worry that political disagreements will ruin the holidays.
But this is a mistake.
What the COVID-19 vaccine means for political battles to come
On the heels of a contentious presidential election, it may seem strange to be advocating for more, not less, partisan bickering. And to be clear, I don’t support the kind of social media sniping that has become a mainstay of public discourse. But at its heart, political disagreement is actually critical to a democracy, so when we’re able to have these kinds of disagreements with people we know and trust, like family, we should.
[California’s New Senator Will Make History. But Can He Win A Full Term In 2022?]
Given the polarized era we live in, though, we find ourselves increasingly isolated from those we disagree with, and political disagreement is surprisingly rare. Consider the results of a survey on social networks conducted this summer by the American Enterprise Institute’s Survey Center on American Life, where I serve as director. Nearly identical majorities of Democrats and Republicans (55 percent versus 53 percent, respectively) reported having no one in their immediate social circle who had opposing political views.
This lack of political diversity is on the rise in our friendships and in our marriages, too. According to a recent YouGov survey, all Americans (but Democrats in particular) are less likely now than they were four years ago to have friends with political views very different from their own. Politics also increasingly influences whom we marry.
Our tendency to surround ourselves with people who have beliefs or backgrounds similar to our own is well-established in social science, and what’s more, it is not inherently a bad thing. It would be difficult, for instance, to pass on our religious values and traditions or to maintain a shared cultural heritage if our social groups were completely random. Historically, this has had benefits, too, with some research finding that people with politically like-minded friends and family are more likely to participate in politics. But our recent survey casts doubt on how true that still is, finding that Americans with politically uniform social networks are not any more politically active than those with less uniform connections.
It’s true that interacting with people who disagree with us politically can be difficult. In our social network survey, a majority (57 percent) of Americans say it is a stressful and frustrating experience to talk about politics with people who disagree with them. But some of this anxiety may have to do with the fact that we’re just really bad at understanding our political opponents. A study from 2015, for instance, found that Americans routinely overestimated just how divided the Democratic and Republican parties were. Across a range of issues, such as taxes, immigration and trade, people perceived their political opponents as being more extreme than they actually were. And a 2018 survey of 2,100 Americans conducted by More in Common, an international think tank, revealed that Democrats and Republicans widely misunderstood the views of the opposing party on basic questions of race, immigration and gender equality. This misperception even extends to how we think about our political opponents’ wealth, sexual and gender identity, religious beliefs or racial identity. A 2017 study found that Americans held consistently biased perceptions about the type of people who identified as Democrat or Republican.
[Why Georgia Isn’t Like The Other Battleground States]
The irony here is that by studiously avoiding political disagreement, the potential for political conflict often becomes much worse. We become less able to understand our political opponents or empathize with their positions. Instead, we are more inclined to believe their ideas are not just wrong-headed but dangerous. This is bad for our democracy, creating an environment where many Americans are primed to accept misinformation and conspiracy theories.
There is hope, though. In a novel experiment, a group of researchers working with NORC at the University of Chicago, recruited over 500 registered voters from diverse backgrounds to discuss politics with one another over a four-day period. The researchers found that political discussions yielded a profound change in views about American democracy. A New York Times account of the experiment reported that “the share of participants who said they thought American democracy worked well doubled, to 60 percent.” And after just a few days of talking to people with different political beliefs, participants expressed considerably more favorable views about their political opponents as well. But despite these promising results, scaling up this experiment would be difficult, and it’s unclear how lasting these changes will prove to be.
At the very least, availing ourselves of diverse political viewpoints may reaffirm our trust in democratic institutions and processes, even if we don’t like the outcomes. Our survey showed that when our social circles include a more diverse mix of political beliefs, we are more open to argument and less ideologically extreme. And, arguably, the best way to get to this point is to discuss — and disagree about — politics more.
Why Georgia isn’t like the other battleground states


fivethirthyeight--2020-12-22--What Makes LeBron James So Great

What Makes LeBron James So Great

We know which athletes are great , but we know less about what makes them great .
To help , FiveThirtyEight is compiling The Greatness Files , a compendium of , well , what makes great athletes great .
First up , a rising star named LeBron James .
This is not another LeBron James vs. Michael Jordan article .
Whenever LeBron reaches another NBA Finals , sports fans are treated to a tired , picked-over argument about the best player of all time .
But no definitive answer is reached , and the topic goes back into the freezer @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to drag it back out .
But that debate obscures what , specifically , makes James so great to begin with : his seemingly infinite longevity as perhaps the best player in the world , and how he can change what he ’ s so good at to fit the needs of his team .
James has enjoyed a run of 15 consecutive seasons ( and counting ) in which he ranked among the league ’ s top five players , according to a combination ranking we cooked up based on MVP voting @ @ @ @ @ @ @ two other NBA players since 1977 — Hall of Fame guards Magic Johnson and John Stockton — have ever pieced together a run of 10 straight seasons or more as a top-five player , and neither had runs as long as LeBron .
Stockton was famously durable but finished without a single NBA title .
Johnson won five championships , one more than LeBron , but logged nearly 500 fewer games between the regular season and playoffs .
With almost an entire hand ’ s worth of rings to go with his nearly @ @ @ @ @ @ @ has been the best of both worlds .
He ’ s outlasted his elite contemporaries and somehow is still widely seen as the best player on the planet , even as other Terminators and Greek Gods — who are between about six and 10 years younger and in their prime — come for his throne .
That ’ s in part because LeBron has been great in so many ways — he changes his game every few years .
At different points in his career , he ’ s been elite — if @ @ @ @ @ @ @ — in virtually every facet of the game .
He led the league in scoring as a 23-year-old in Cleveland before he had anything close to an elite supporting cast , and he is still a wildly efficient , unstoppable finisher around the rim .
The soon-to-be 36-year-old just led the NBA in assists for the first time in his career ( a mere 17 seasons in ) , and he has talked before about studying where , specifically , his teammates like his passes to be positioned in order for them to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ joked ( or didn ’ t ) that new teammate Marc Gasol ’ s 2013 Defensive Player of the Year Award should belong to him .
And while James hasn ’ t been a DPOY candidate in quite some time now , he ’ s shown he can still terrorize on that end when he truly wants to .
You can see how LeBron ’ s skill set morphed year to year in the charts below , which compare LeBron ’ s skill to the NBA ’ s high-water mark during his era @ @ @ @ @ @ @ worst of the league during the season in question ( the innermost circle ) .
Baby LeBron was still pretty raw — as a 19-year-old , he was already doing surprisingly well in a variety of different areas , but nothing stood out as a dominant trait .
And his shooting was quite poor , as James ’ s 29 percent conversion rate from downtown ranked fourth-worst among all qualified NBA players .
Luckily , he had ample time ( and talent ) to improve .
By 2008-09 , LeBron was a very @ @ @ @ @ @ @ than he ’ d been as a rookie .
He ’ d started filling the basket with the same frequency as the best scorer of the era ( Kobe Bryant ) , expanded his passing skills and even became one of the best defenders in basketball .
But there was one area of LeBron ’ s game that still needed some improvement… As great as LeBron was in 2008-09 , the years that followed — after he left Cleveland for Miami — saw him push the boundaries of his full potential .
While @ @ @ @ @ @ @ level and playing good D , James set a career high for rebound rate … and finally became an elite 3-point shooter ( knocking down nearly 41 percent of his shots from downtown ) .
At the advanced age of 35 , LeBron isn ’ t the same as he was a decade earlier .
Though he still scores a lot , he had a down year shooting in 2019-20 and picked his spots more on defense .
But James also showed he could be the most productive passer in the league — @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the first time .
It was yet another evolution in a career full of them .
Speaking of James ’ s clap-on , clap-off skill set , arguably the most incredible development we ’ ve seen over LeBron ’ s career is the ability to go from being statistically the worst jump-shooter in the NBA midway through the 2015-16 season to being a pretty damn good one now .
And not just that , but also being perhaps the most prolific long , long range shooter in basketball .
The ability to serve @ @ @ @ @ @ @ having one of the league ’ s highest on-court IQs , explains why his slightly diminished athleticism hasn ’ t hindered him yet .
Even if he couldn ’ t get to the rim and elevate over folks anymore ( which , he still can ) , he ’ d be able to shoot well enough to compensate .
Between having a Magic-like ability to see the floor and pass the ball , the imposing physical presence of a Karl Malone , shooting range that ’ s comparable to Stephen Curry or Dame @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Paul ’ s , LeBron is a scary-ass , Frankenstein of an NBA player .
He ’ s made up of many of the best players ’ best attributes , all wrapped up in one of the most hyperathletic , runaway freight-train packages the NBA has ever seen .
LeBron ’ s greatness isn ’ t just captured in the numbers , either .
One thing that consistently stands out when watching LeBron is how much everything in his peripheral space — the nine other players on the court , coaches shouting from @ @ @ @ @ @ @ seemingly slows down or stands still for him .
Much like Minority Report , where Tom Cruise ’ s character can see the future play out , a lot of James ’ s brilliance stems from seeing things unfold one or two steps ahead of everyone else .
Ex-teammate Iman Shumpert still finds himself amazed with how James is able to direct traffic and move chess pieces around to confuse and manipulate defenses to his liking , then pick them apart with a perfect pass once they ’ ve strayed too far from @ @ @ @ @ @ @ There ’ ll be times where he ’ ll say , ‘ Shump !
If he move , cut right behind him !
Cut right behind him if he move !
’ ” Shumpert has said .
“ And everything he ’ s saying , you just watch it happen .
And the moment [ the defender ] flinches , [ I ’ m cutting for a ] catch and dunk.
” James has basically made time stand still as the king of his sport for nearly a decade and a half .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ else .

We know which athletes are great, but we know less about what makes them great. To help, FiveThirtyEight is compiling The Greatness Files, a compendium of, well, what makes great athletes great. First up, a rising star named LeBron James.
This is not another LeBron James vs. Michael Jordan article. Whenever LeBron reaches another NBA Finals, sports fans are treated to a tired, picked-over argument about the best player of all time. But no definitive answer is reached, and the topic goes back into the freezer until media networks find a new reason to drag it back out.
But that debate obscures what, specifically, makes James so great to begin with: his seemingly infinite longevity as perhaps the best player in the world, and how he can change what he’s so good at to fit the needs of his team.
James has enjoyed a run of 15 consecutive seasons (and counting) in which he ranked among the league’s top five players, according to a combination ranking we cooked up based on MVP voting and our RAPTOR WAR metric. Just two other NBA players since 1977 — Hall of Fame guards Magic Johnson and John Stockton — have ever pieced together a run of 10 straight seasons or more as a top-five player, and neither had runs as long as LeBron.
Stockton was famously durable but finished without a single NBA title. Johnson won five championships, one more than LeBron, but logged nearly 500 fewer games between the regular season and playoffs. With almost an entire hand’s worth of rings to go with his nearly unparalleled record of superstar-level longevity, James has been the best of both worlds. He’s outlasted his elite contemporaries and somehow is still widely seen as the best player on the planet, even as other Terminators and Greek Gods — who are between about six and 10 years younger and in their prime — come for his throne.
That’s in part because LeBron has been great in so many ways — he changes his game every few years. At different points in his career, he’s been elite — if not the very best in the league — in virtually every facet of the game. He led the league in scoring as a 23-year-old in Cleveland before he had anything close to an elite supporting cast, and he is still a wildly efficient, unstoppable finisher around the rim. The soon-to-be 36-year-old just led the NBA in assists for the first time in his career (a mere 17 seasons in), and he has talked before about studying where, specifically, his teammates like his passes to be positioned in order for them to shoot more accurately. Recently, he joked (or didn’t) that new teammate Marc Gasol’s 2013 Defensive Player of the Year Award should belong to him. And while James hasn’t been a DPOY candidate in quite some time now, he’s shown he can still terrorize on that end when he truly wants to.
You can see how LeBron’s skill set morphed year to year in the charts below, which compare LeBron’s skill to the NBA’s high-water mark during his era (the outermost circle) and the worst of the league during the season in question (the innermost circle).
Baby LeBron was still pretty raw — as a 19-year-old, he was already doing surprisingly well in a variety of different areas, but nothing stood out as a dominant trait. And his shooting was quite poor, as James’s 29 percent conversion rate from downtown ranked fourth-worst among all qualified NBA players. Luckily, he had ample time (and talent) to improve.
By 2008-09, LeBron was a very different — and much better — player than he’d been as a rookie. He’d started filling the basket with the same frequency as the best scorer of the era (Kobe Bryant), expanded his passing skills and even became one of the best defenders in basketball. But there was one area of LeBron’s game that still needed some improvement…
As great as LeBron was in 2008-09, the years that followed — after he left Cleveland for Miami — saw him push the boundaries of his full potential. While still scoring and passing at an elite level and playing good D, James set a career high for rebound rate … and finally became an elite 3-point shooter (knocking down nearly 41 percent of his shots from downtown).
At the advanced age of 35, LeBron isn’t the same as he was a decade earlier. Though he still scores a lot, he had a down year shooting in 2019-20 and picked his spots more on defense. But James also showed he could be the most productive passer in the league — leading the NBA in assist rate for the first time. It was yet another evolution in a career full of them.
Speaking of James’s clap-on, clap-off skill set, arguably the most incredible development we’ve seen over LeBron’s career is the ability to go from being statistically the worst jump-shooter in the NBA midway through the 2015-16 season to being a pretty damn good one now. And not just that, but also being perhaps the most prolific long, long range shooter in basketball.
The ability to serve as an occasional marksman, along with having one of the league’s highest on-court IQs, explains why his slightly diminished athleticism hasn’t hindered him yet. Even if he couldn’t get to the rim and elevate over folks anymore (which, he still can), he’d be able to shoot well enough to compensate.
Between having a Magic-like ability to see the floor and pass the ball, the imposing physical presence of a Karl Malone, shooting range that’s comparable to Stephen Curry or Dame Lillard and on-court smarts that rival Chris Paul’s, LeBron is a scary-ass, Frankenstein of an NBA player. He’s made up of many of the best players’ best attributes, all wrapped up in one of the most hyperathletic, runaway freight-train packages the NBA has ever seen.
LeBron’s greatness isn’t just captured in the numbers, either. One thing that consistently stands out when watching LeBron is how much everything in his peripheral space — the nine other players on the court, coaches shouting from the sidelines and thousands of fans — seemingly slows down or stands still for him. Much like Minority Report, where Tom Cruise’s character can see the future play out, a lot of James’s brilliance stems from seeing things unfold one or two steps ahead of everyone else.
Ex-teammate Iman Shumpert still finds himself amazed with how James is able to direct traffic and move chess pieces around to confuse and manipulate defenses to his liking, then pick them apart with a perfect pass once they’ve strayed too far from where they should actually be.
“There’ll be times where he’ll say, ‘Shump! If he move, cut right behind him! Cut right behind him if he move!’” Shumpert has said. “And everything he’s saying, you just watch it happen. And the moment [the defender] flinches, [I’m cutting for a] catch and dunk.”
James has basically made time stand still as the king of his sport for nearly a decade and a half. That explains his greatness more than anything else.
Who’s the most chaotic fictional football coach? | FiveThirtyEight


fivethirthyeight--2020-12-22--Why Georgia Isn’t Like The Other Battleground States

In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast , the crew debates whether the new $ 900 billion stimulus package @ @ @ @ @ avert crisis or a model for compromise in the Washington that President-elect Biden will inherit @ @ @ @ @ makes the runoff elections in Georgia different from elections in other battleground states

In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the crew debates whether the new $900 billion stimulus package is a one-off attempt to avert crisis or a model for compromise in the Washington, D.C., that President-elect Biden will inherit. They also discuss what makes the runoff elections in Georgia different from elections in other battleground states.
What do 1,200 books about Trump really tell us? | FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast


fivethirthyeight--2020-12-23--It’s Hard Not To Believe In Luka Dončić

It’s Hard Not To Believe In Luka Dončić

A shower of cheers rained down on Luka Dončić as he walked off the court after a Dallas Mavericks victory last fall , four days before Thanksgiving .
He high-fived a few fans — towel around his neck — then clapped his hands above his head and entered the tunnel as the MVP chants continued .
If he were in the familiar , comfortable confines of the American Airlines Center in downtown Dallas , the cheers and chants would have made complete sense .
But he wasn ’ t .
He was walking off the court of the Toyota Center @ @ @ @ @ @ @ knocked off the Rockets , 137-123 .
MVP chants in another city ?
Against a heated in-state rival ?
Rare .
Moments later , in the locker room , I asked him how that scene affected him .
“ It was nice .
When I hear those sounds , it ’ s very nice .
I never imagined being called [ something ] like that in the NBA , and it ’ s just something that feels special to me.
” That was a little over a year ago .
Dončić has won @ @ @ @ @ @ @ up awards , recognitions and honors , including starting in his first NBA All-Star Game .
If they were chanting MVP back then , it ’ s easy to imagine what they ’ re saying now : that Dončić ’ s third year in the NBA could very well be his MVP year .
And no one would be surprised .
The NBA.com 2020-21 GM Survey , released last Friday , has Dončić ( 21 percent ) second only to Giannis Antetokounmpo ( 32 percent ) to win this season ’ s MVP @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 43 percent ) as the player GMs would start their franchise with .
Caesars Sportsbook by William Hill has Dončić — who has had the No .
2 best-selling jersey this year — as the betting favorite to win MVP , and countless sports pundits and talking heads are predicting that Dončić will finish this season hoisting the trophy as the best in the league .
“ Luka Dončić is going to win the MVP .
… He ’ s the next coming of LeBron , ” Jay Williams said recently on his @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
“ He ’ s must-watch TV.
” LeBron James himself has high praise for Dončić and what he brings to the game .
“ Luka is one of my favorite players in the NBA , ” he said on the Road Trippin ’ podcast .
James also revealed that he wanted to begin his Team LeBron shoe line by signing Dončić , though Dončić ultimately signed with Jordan Brand .
“ That ’ s how much I believed in him.
” The FiveThirtyEight player projection model also believes in him , expecting @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for the foreseeable future : The NBA believes in him too , scheduling the Mavs to play in a high-profile Christmas day game — for the first time since 2011 — against the reigning NBA champion Los Angeles Lakers on primetime television .
The scheduling of that game is perhaps as much a testament to Luka ’ s growing popularity as it is to fans wanting to see the champs .
And who wouldn ’ t believe in Dončić at this point ?
Besides the obvious basketball skills , he ’ s a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ great big smile and a part mischievous , part infectious personality — kicking around the basketball pregame like a soccer ball one minute , singing the lyrics to “ Macarena ” into the microphone during a media session the next .
That playfulness flips when the game begins , and he morphs into a fierce competitor : engineering the Mavs offense , throwing up shots , helping his teammates get buckets and showing his intense desire to win , even once tearing his jersey in half midgame — while still wearing it — @ @ @ @ @ @ @ key free throws in a battle against the Lakers ; a nod to his competitive spirit .
He also displays glimpses of humbleness that make you think , “ Maybe he really doesn ’ t understand just how big he is.
” “ Luka ’ s an amazing player , ” said Mavs rookie Josh Green .
“ Being his age and doing what he ’ s doing — it ’ s awesome .
He ’ s an unselfish guy who looks like a great teammate.
” Josh Richardson , who was traded @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Dončić when the Slovenia native was only 16 .
He was working out in Santa Barbara , California , where Richardson — then a member of the Miami Heat — would spend his offseasons training .
Richardson knew right away that Dončić was a special talent .
“ He walked in the gym , into the weight room that morning , and I never heard of him , never seen him , ” Richardson said .
“ But I saw his body and how he ’ s built and they told me he @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , no way !
” “ I watched him and saw his shot and how everything looked , and then when we were playing [ pick-up games ] , it was like — just the pace , ” Richardson explained .
“ It ’ s hard to teach that , especially on a kid that was already 6 ’ 6 ” at 16 and 200 and however many pounds .
It ’ s rare that you see something like that .
He shot a few step backs , made a few good passes @ @ @ @ @ @ @ he ’ s got it .
He ’ s got it.
” What is it that makes Dončić so special ?
Part of his mystique is the very real fact that at a young age , he already plays at an elite level in basketball — with so much more room to improve .
“ He ’ s 21 .
He ’ s getting better all the time , ” Mavs head coach Rick Carlisle told media during his first preseason session .
“ His game continues to be more and more refined @ @ @ @ @ @ @ He ’ s a special player .
He ’ s a special person .
He ’ s a special leader on our team , ” Carlisle continued .
“ And I don ’ t know exactly what it ’ s going to be , but I do think you ’ ll see continued development and continued growth.
” As good as he ’ s been so far , Luka is pushing himself to be better — and as he goes , so goes the team .
“ I always say I want to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s the goal we entered [ with ] last year , ” he said , “ and that ’ s the goal we ’ re going to enter this year [ with ] as a whole group.
” Luka burst onto the NBA scene in 2018 at 19 — a young but already bona fide basketball star from Slovenia .
He was selected with the third overall pick by the Atlanta Hawks in the 2018 draft then traded to the Mavs in exchange for the draft rights to Trae Young and a protected @ @ @ @ @ @ @ may not have heard of him .
Even those who saw his name on mock drafts could have been forgiven for not knowing just how good he was .
But Mavs GM Donnie Nelson knew .
Nelson started scouting a young Dončić two years before the 2018 draft .
He knew what he saw was real .
Dončić was special , would be special in the NBA and was the franchise-altering player the Mavs needed .
“ He ’ s a winner in every sense of the word , ” Nelson told Mavs.com @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to participate in the NBA ’ s Rising Stars game during All-Star weekend as a rookie .
“ There ’ s a maturity to his game that it seems like at every level , when he was playing as a youth and then into his mid- to late teens , he was always playing against bigger guys and getting it done against those guys.
” The Mavsalso saw a fierce competitor who is very comfortable on court ; that would become apparent quickly .
He won Rookie of the Year and was selected @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Luka ’ s rookie year saw the retirement of the great Dirk Nowitzki — the Mavs ’ loyal franchise player who delivered the team its only championship in 2011 — who effectively handed the keys to the team to Dončić .
In turn , Dončić took the keys and unlocked the door to one of the greatest sophomore seasons in the NBA .
During his second year , he joined the upper echelon of NBA players .
He finished the season as the league leader in 25-point , 10-rebound , 15-assist games @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 18 ) and 20-5-5 games ( 50 ) .
He was selected to his first NBA All-Star game and was named to the prestigious 2019-20 All-NBA First Team , the first player named to the All-NBA First Team in either his first or second season since Tim Duncan in 1998-99 .
Dončić finished fourth in MVP voting behind eventual winner Antetokounmpo , LeBron James and James Harden , and ahead of Kawhi Leonard , Anthony Davis and Chris Paul .
He also finished third in Most Improved Player voting behind eventual winner Brandon @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s Bam Adebayo .
He finished the regular season averaging 28.8 points , 9.4 rebounds and 8.8 assists in 61 games ( all starts ) , making him just the third player in NBA history to average at least 28-9-8 for a full season ( with Oscar Robertson and Russell Westbrook ) .
And with Dončić creating shots for himself and his teammates , the Mavs had the most efficient offense in league history .
Dončić recorded a league-high 17 triple-doubles in 2019-20 , becoming the youngest player in NBA history to lead @ @ @ @ @ @ @ He not only broke Jason Kidd ’ s Mavericks single-season triple-double record ( nine in 1995-96 ) , but he became the franchise ’ s all-time leader in the category as well ( 25 ) .
Twelve of his triple-doubles were of the 30-point variety , and he again joined Robertson and Westbrook as one of three players to record at least 12 30-point triple-doubles in a single season .
After the pandemic paused his stellar second season , Dončić and the Mavs headed to the Orlando bubble to finish out the season @ @ @ @ @ @ @ his ability in the clutch .
Dončić finished his first NBA playoff series — in six first-round playoff games against the L.A. Clippers — averaging 31 points ( on 50 percent shooting from the field ) , 9.8 rebounds and 8.7 assists en route to becoming the fifth player in NBA history to average at least 30-8-8 in a playoff series ( along with James , Westbrook , Michael Jordan and Robertson ) .
Dončić was the first to do so in his first career postseason series .
And it will be hard @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Game 4 , when he hit a game-winning 3-point shot in overtime at the buzzer to tie the series .
“ I remember just getting to my spot — that ’ s the key in the game-winners , have to get to your spot , ” he said .
“ And … when I made it , everyone at the bench was looking at me and running toward me .
It was the best feeling .
After that game , I was just happy.
” The Mavs couldn ’ t sustain the momentum @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Porziņģis , who missed the last three games with a knee injury , they eventually lost the series — but not before a series of much-publicized incidents that ended up serving as catalysts for the Mavs ’ eventual new arrival .
In Game 3 , after an altercation between Dončić and Montrezl Harrell , the Clippers big man called Dončić a “ [ expletive ] white boy , ” setting off a firestorm on social media .
Harrell , now with the Lakers , received no fines or suspension , but he apologized @ @ @ @ @ @ @ him pregame before Game 5 .
But it wasn ’ t just Harrell who appeared to be picking on Dončić .
Fellow Clipper Marcus Morris Sr. got into the act during Game 6 when he was ejected for committing a flagrant two foul against Dončić .
The name-calling and intense physicality had many wondering if other teams felt the franchise was soft and that they could push the Mavs and Dončić around .
To be sure , Dončić didn ’ t back down nor did his teammates .
But just the fact that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ away with such behavior raised a few eyebrows .
Enter Richardson , a former Philadelphia 76er who has a reputation as a “ tough and gritty ” player who has spent his whole NBA career in the more physical Eastern Conference .
He ’ s a perfect fit for the Mavs — and Dončić .
“ I think that a few of us coming in this year can definitely bring an aspect of hard-nosed , physical basketball , ” Richardson said of the new Mavs players , a group that includes James Johnson @ @ @ @ @ @ @ guy who ’ s a terrific defender , ” Carlisle said .
“ We ’ ve been looking for a guy that can guard point guards and be able to score off the ball or be able to take the ball and let Luka work off the ball .
And I think he gives us that kind of flexibility .
He ’ s a guy from afar that I ’ ve always felt would be a really good fit with Luka Dončić.
” Dončić praised Richardson ’ s presence as well .
“ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ … He brings a lot of stuff .
He can shoot , he can dribble , he can guard anybody , and he brings a lot to the team .
I ’ m really happy and we ’ re really happy to have him.
” When they met in California five years ago , Richardson and Dončić played pickup games and bonded over their love of soccer , and they stayed in touch over the years .
Richardson said the two mesh well because they have similar personalities .
“ We ’ re @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on the court , it ’ s business once that game starts.
” Richardson knows he has several roles on the Mavs team — toughness , leadership , defense and alleviating the pressure on Dončić .
“ I ’ m excited to play next to him because he ’ s one of the best playmakers in the NBA , ” he said .
As he prepares for his third season in the league , Dončić hears the MVP talk but remains focused on winning a championship .
All the ingredients are there — @ @ @ @ @ @ @ at least the first few games of the season , he ’ ll be without Porziņģis , whose defense the Mavs desperately need if they hope to make any kind of real run in the postseason .
This is an opportune time for Dončić to show he has what it takes to get the young , new-look Mavs where they want to be — if not now , soon .
But it starts tonight as the Mavs begin their season with a promise from Dončić .
“ This season will be way better @ @ @ @ @ @ @ can ’ t help but believe him .

“MVP! MVP! MVP!”
A shower of cheers rained down on Luka Dončić as he walked off the court after a Dallas Mavericks victory last fall, four days before Thanksgiving. He high-fived a few fans — towel around his neck — then clapped his hands above his head and entered the tunnel as the MVP chants continued.
If he were in the familiar, comfortable confines of the American Airlines Center in downtown Dallas, the cheers and chants would have made complete sense.
What makes LeBron James so great | FiveThirtyEight
But he wasn’t. He was walking off the court of the Toyota Center in Houston after he and the Mavs knocked off the Rockets, 137-123.
[Related: Our 2020-21 NBA Predictions]
MVP chants in another city? Against a heated in-state rival? Rare.
Moments later, in the locker room, I asked him how that scene affected him.
“It was nice. When I hear those sounds, it’s very nice. I never imagined being called [something] like that in the NBA, and it’s just something that feels special to me.”
That was a little over a year ago. Dončić has won many more games since then and racked up awards, recognitions and honors, including starting in his first NBA All-Star Game.
If they were chanting MVP back then, it’s easy to imagine what they’re saying now: that Dončić’s third year in the NBA could very well be his MVP year.
And no one would be surprised.
[Related: Which NBA Teams Might Make Things Interesting This Season?]
The NBA.com 2020-21 GM Survey, released last Friday, has Dončić (21 percent) second only to Giannis Antetokounmpo (32 percent) to win this season’s MVP award. He also tied Antetokounmpo (43 percent) as the player GMs would start their franchise with. Caesars Sportsbook by William Hill has Dončić — who has had the No. 2 best-selling jersey this year — as the betting favorite to win MVP, and countless sports pundits and talking heads are predicting that Dončić will finish this season hoisting the trophy as the best in the league.
“Luka Dončić is going to win the MVP. … He’s the next coming of LeBron,” Jay Williams said recently on his radio show Keyshawn, JWill & Zubin. “He’s must-watch TV.”
LeBron James himself has high praise for Dončić and what he brings to the game. “Luka is one of my favorite players in the NBA,” he said on the Road Trippin’ podcast. James also revealed that he wanted to begin his Team LeBron shoe line by signing Dončić, though Dončić ultimately signed with Jordan Brand. “That’s how much I believed in him.”
The FiveThirtyEight player projection model also believes in him, expecting MVP-level output not just this season but for the foreseeable future:
The NBA believes in him too, scheduling the Mavs to play in a high-profile Christmas day game — for the first time since 2011 — against the reigning NBA champion Los Angeles Lakers on primetime television. The scheduling of that game is perhaps as much a testament to Luka’s growing popularity as it is to fans wanting to see the champs.
[Related: Our NBA Player Projections]
And who wouldn’t believe in Dončić at this point? Besides the obvious basketball skills, he’s a true kid at heart, with a great big smile and a part mischievous, part infectious personality — kicking around the basketball pregame like a soccer ball one minute, singing the lyrics to “Macarena” into the microphone during a media session the next.
That playfulness flips when the game begins, and he morphs into a fierce competitor: engineering the Mavs offense, throwing up shots, helping his teammates get buckets and showing his intense desire to win, even once tearing his jersey in half midgame — while still wearing it — to show his frustration at missing two key free throws in a battle against the Lakers; a nod to his competitive spirit.
He also displays glimpses of humbleness that make you think, “Maybe he really doesn’t understand just how big he is.”
I’m here for Happy Luka, singing Macarena and telling us about the great addition of Josh Richardson and Josh Richardson in turn – after a great question from my buddy @townbrad – showering praise on Luka. #MFFL #Mavs Video: @dallasmavs pic.twitter.com/Cn6Pen4jtE — Dorothy J. Gentry (@DorothyJGentry) December 15, 2020
“Luka’s an amazing player,” said Mavs rookie Josh Green. “Being his age and doing what he’s doing — it’s awesome. He’s an unselfish guy who looks like a great teammate.”
Josh Richardson, who was traded to the Mavs this offseason, met Dončić when the Slovenia native was only 16. He was working out in Santa Barbara, California, where Richardson — then a member of the Miami Heat — would spend his offseasons training.
Richardson knew right away that Dončić was a special talent.
“He walked in the gym, into the weight room that morning, and I never heard of him, never seen him,” Richardson said. “But I saw his body and how he’s built and they told me he was 16, and I was like, no way!”
“I watched him and saw his shot and how everything looked, and then when we were playing [pick-up games], it was like — just the pace,” Richardson explained.
“It’s hard to teach that, especially on a kid that was already 6’6” at 16 and 200 and however many pounds. It’s rare that you see something like that. He shot a few step backs, made a few good passes, and I was just like, he’s got it. He’s got it.”
What is it that makes Dončić so special?
Part of his mystique is the very real fact that at a young age, he already plays at an elite level in basketball — with so much more room to improve.
“He’s 21. He’s getting better all the time,” Mavs head coach Rick Carlisle told media during his first preseason session. “His game continues to be more and more refined each year in all areas.
“He’s a special player. He’s a special person. He’s a special leader on our team,” Carlisle continued. “And I don’t know exactly what it’s going to be, but I do think you’ll see continued development and continued growth.”
As good as he’s been so far, Luka is pushing himself to be better — and as he goes, so goes the team. “I always say I want to win the championship, and that’s the goal we entered [with] last year,” he said, “and that’s the goal we’re going to enter this year [with] as a whole group.”
[Related: What Makes LeBron James So Great]
Luka burst onto the NBA scene in 2018 at 19 — a young but already bona fide basketball star from Slovenia. He was selected with the third overall pick by the Atlanta Hawks in the 2018 draft then traded to the Mavs in exchange for the draft rights to Trae Young and a protected first-round pick in 2019.
Average fans may not have heard of him. Even those who saw his name on mock drafts could have been forgiven for not knowing just how good he was.
But Mavs GM Donnie Nelson knew. Nelson started scouting a young Dončić two years before the 2018 draft. He knew what he saw was real. Dončić was special, would be special in the NBA and was the franchise-altering player the Mavs needed.
“He’s a winner in every sense of the word,” Nelson told Mavs.com last year just before Dončić was set to participate in the NBA’s Rising Stars game during All-Star weekend as a rookie. “There’s a maturity to his game that it seems like at every level, when he was playing as a youth and then into his mid- to late teens, he was always playing against bigger guys and getting it done against those guys.”
The Mavsalso saw a fierce competitor who is very comfortable on court; that would become apparent quickly. He won Rookie of the Year and was selected unanimously to the NBA All-Rookie First Team.
Luka’s rookie year saw the retirement of the great Dirk Nowitzki — the Mavs’ loyal franchise player who delivered the team its only championship in 2011 — who effectively handed the keys to the team to Dončić. In turn, Dončić took the keys and unlocked the door to one of the greatest sophomore seasons in the NBA.
During his second year, he joined the upper echelon of NBA players. He finished the season as the league leader in 25-point, 10-rebound, 15-assist games (five), 30-10-7 efforts (18) and 20-5-5 games (50). He was selected to his first NBA All-Star game and was named to the prestigious 2019-20 All-NBA First Team, the first player named to the All-NBA First Team in either his first or second season since Tim Duncan in 1998-99.
Dončić finished fourth in MVP voting behind eventual winner Antetokounmpo, LeBron James and James Harden, and ahead of Kawhi Leonard, Anthony Davis and Chris Paul. He also finished third in Most Improved Player voting behind eventual winner Brandon Ingram of New Orleans and Miami’s Bam Adebayo.
Dončić was the youngest player in the MVP race 2019-20 stats for the 12 NBA players to receive points in voting for the Most Valuable Player award Per Game Rk Player Age Team Pts Rebs Asts 1 Giannis Antetokounmpo 25 Bucks 29.5 13.6 5.6 2 LeBron James 35 Lakers 25.3 7.8 10.2 3 James Harden 30 Rockets 34.3 6.6 7.5 4 Luka Dončić 20 Mavericks 28.8 9.4 8.8 5 Kawhi Leonard 28 Clipplers 27.1 7.1 4.9 6 Anthony Davis 26 Lakers 26.1 9.3 3.2 7 Chris Paul 34 Thunder 17.6 5.0 6.7 8 Damian Lillard 29 Trail Blazers 30.0 4.3 8.0 9 Nikola Jokić 24 Nuggets 19.9 9.7 7.0 10 Pascal Siakam 25 Raptors 22.9 7.3 3.5 11 Jimmy Butler 30 Heat 19.9 6.7 6.0 12 Jayson Tatum 21 Celtics 23.4 7.0 3.0 Source: Basketball-Reference.com
He finished the regular season averaging 28.8 points, 9.4 rebounds and 8.8 assists in 61 games (all starts), making him just the third player in NBA history to average at least 28-9-8 for a full season (with Oscar Robertson and Russell Westbrook). And with Dončić creating shots for himself and his teammates, the Mavs had the most efficient offense in league history.
Dončić recorded a league-high 17 triple-doubles in 2019-20, becoming the youngest player in NBA history to lead the league outright in the category. He not only broke Jason Kidd’s Mavericks single-season triple-double record (nine in 1995-96), but he became the franchise’s all-time leader in the category as well (25). Twelve of his triple-doubles were of the 30-point variety, and he again joined Robertson and Westbrook as one of three players to record at least 12 30-point triple-doubles in a single season.
After the pandemic paused his stellar second season, Dončić and the Mavs headed to the Orlando bubble to finish out the season. It was there that he proved his ability in the clutch.
[How Far Can Ja Morant Take The Resurgent Memphis Grizzlies?]
Dončić finished his first NBA playoff series — in six first-round playoff games against the L.A. Clippers — averaging 31 points (on 50 percent shooting from the field), 9.8 rebounds and 8.7 assists en route to becoming the fifth player in NBA history to average at least 30-8-8 in a playoff series (along with James, Westbrook, Michael Jordan and Robertson). Dončić was the first to do so in his first career postseason series.
And it will be hard to forget Luka’s performance in Game 4, when he hit a game-winning 3-point shot in overtime at the buzzer to tie the series.
“I remember just getting to my spot — that’s the key in the game-winners, have to get to your spot,” he said. “And … when I made it, everyone at the bench was looking at me and running toward me. It was the best feeling. After that game, I was just happy.”
The Mavs couldn’t sustain the momentum from the win, and without Kristaps Porziņģis, who missed the last three games with a knee injury, they eventually lost the series — but not before a series of much-publicized incidents that ended up serving as catalysts for the Mavs’ eventual new arrival.
In Game 3, after an altercation between Dončić and Montrezl Harrell, the Clippers big man called Dončić a “[expletive] white boy,” setting off a firestorm on social media. Harrell, now with the Lakers, received no fines or suspension, but he apologized to Dončić and was seen talking with him pregame before Game 5.
But it wasn’t just Harrell who appeared to be picking on Dončić. Fellow Clipper Marcus Morris Sr. got into the act during Game 6 when he was ejected for committing a flagrant two foul against Dončić.
The name-calling and intense physicality had many wondering if other teams felt the franchise was soft and that they could push the Mavs and Dončić around. To be sure, Dončić didn’t back down nor did his teammates. But just the fact that the Clippers seemingly felt they could get away with such behavior raised a few eyebrows.
Enter Richardson, a former Philadelphia 76er who has a reputation as a “tough and gritty” player who has spent his whole NBA career in the more physical Eastern Conference. He’s a perfect fit for the Mavs — and Dončić.
“I think that a few of us coming in this year can definitely bring an aspect of hard-nosed, physical basketball,” Richardson said of the new Mavs players, a group that includes James Johnson.
“Josh Richardson is an edgy guy who’s a terrific defender,” Carlisle said. “We’ve been looking for a guy that can guard point guards and be able to score off the ball or be able to take the ball and let Luka work off the ball. And I think he gives us that kind of flexibility. He’s a guy from afar that I’ve always felt would be a really good fit with Luka Dončić.”
Dončić praised Richardson’s presence as well. “He’s an amazing player. … He brings a lot of stuff. He can shoot, he can dribble, he can guard anybody, and he brings a lot to the team. I’m really happy and we’re really happy to have him.”
When they met in California five years ago, Richardson and Dončić played pickup games and bonded over their love of soccer, and they stayed in touch over the years. Richardson said the two mesh well because they have similar personalities. “We’re very goofy off the court, but on the court, it’s business once that game starts.”
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Richardson knows he has several roles on the Mavs team — toughness, leadership, defense and alleviating the pressure on Dončić. “I’m excited to play next to him because he’s one of the best playmakers in the NBA,” he said.
As he prepares for his third season in the league, Dončić hears the MVP talk but remains focused on winning a championship. All the ingredients are there — including new teammates. However, for at least the first few games of the season, he’ll be without Porziņģis, whose defense the Mavs desperately need if they hope to make any kind of real run in the postseason.
This is an opportune time for Dončić to show he has what it takes to get the young, new-look Mavs where they want to be — if not now, soon. But it starts tonight as the Mavs begin their season with a promise from Dončić.
“This season will be way better than last season.”
Somehow, you can’t help but believe him.
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