fivethirthyeight--2020-08-17--What Really Gives Left-Handed Pitchers Their Edge?

Left-handed pitching has long been one of the most prized commodities in professional baseball .
Teams strive to obtain lefty pitchers , and southpaws recognize their competitive edge .
Two-sport athlete Tom Glavine explained his career choice this way : “ I love both sports , but the deciding factor was , being a left-handed pitcher , I had a huge advantage in baseball because of that , and I didn ’ t have that type of advantage in hockey.
” Even a century ago , Tris Speaker expressed the sport ’ s reverence for southpaws — if falling short @ @ @ @ @ @ @ reportedly opined that “ taking the best left-handed pitcher in baseball and converting him into a right fielder is one of the dumbest things I ever heard.
” MLB rosters reflect this preference for lefties today .
Although just 10 percent of American males throw with their left hand , fully 28 percent of innings thrown by MLB pitchers in the past decade — and 29 percent of starts — came from the left side .
Remarkably , lefty pitchers make it to the big leagues about three times as frequently as righties @ @ @ @ @ @ @ population .
What accounts for this huge surplus of southpaws ?
The traditional explanation has pinned responsibility on baseball ’ s platoon advantage , in which hitters perform better in opposite-hand matchups while pitchers have the edge in same-handed contests .
Since left-handed hitters have the platoon edge much more often than right-handed hitters , they have an edge in the competition for MLB jobs and end up overrepresented on offense .
In response , the story goes , teams then stock up on left-handed pitchers to counter the advantage offenses gain from @ @ @ @ @ @ @ first half of this story is generally correct .
When a batter hits with the platoon advantage , his on-base plus slugging percentage is more than 80 points higher than when he faces a same-handed pitcher , and left-handed batters enjoy this advantage far more often ( 73 percent of plate appearances ) than right-handed hitters do ( 29 percent ) .
The result is that over 40 percent of MLB plate appearances are taken from the left side .
The pitching component of this narrative , however , does not withstand scrutiny @ @ @ @ @ @ @ face left-handed hitters more frequently than they would in the general population , but that isn ’ t the relevant factor in the competition for pitching jobs .
On the field , what matters is that left-handed pitchers ( LHPs ) only enjoy the platoon advantage 29 percent of the time , far less than the 53 percent rate for right-handed pitchers ( RHPs ) .
Southpaws actually pay a severe “ platoon penalty , ” and would allow fewer runs — about 0.20 runs per game , by our estimate — if @ @ @ @ @ @ @ as right-handed pitchers do .
Far from helping to explain the southpaw surplus , the platoon effect must actually suppress the number of left-handed pitchers .
So the question remains : Why are there so many left-handed pitchers in Major League Baseball ?
They should be nearly extinct , but in fact they thrive .
What ’ s going on ?
We believe that left-handed pitchers have a hidden advantage that has nothing to do with their ability to throw a baseball , based solely on the fact that they throw with their @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ” is substantial enough to generate a large surplus of lefty pitchers on rosters and shape the game in profound ways .
Indeed , our analysis suggests that a substantial majority of MLB left-handed pitchers could not survive in the majors if they threw right-handed but had otherwise identical talent .
If you are skeptical , well , so were we .
But as the kids say , we have receipts .
Southpaws are inferior ( except at getting batters out ) At the heart of the mystery of handedness and pitching lies @ @ @ @ @ @ @ vs. pitch quality .
MLB left-handers are just as successful as right-handers at retiring batters , but they are not truly peers when it comes to throwing a baseball .
In terms of the quality of the pitches they make — as measured by observable factors such as velocity and movement — southpaws are simply not in the same league as righties .
For this analysis , we used data from Pitch Info published by FanGraphs to look at all players who pitched at least 100 innings from 2007 through 2019 , a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ) and 839 RHPs ( 379,347 IP ) .
As you can see from the table below , the lefties and righties had virtually equal outcomes .
Not only do they surrender the same number of runs — 4.34 and 4.37 per nine innings , respectively — but they arrive at this result via the same path , posting virtually identical strikeout , walk and home run rates .
However , pitch quality metrics — which remove the pitcher-hitter interaction — paint a very different picture .
Velocity is the single most important @ @ @ @ @ @ @ slower pitches than RHPs .
From 2007 to 2019 , left-handers registered a substantially lower velocity for every type of pitch tracked , including not only higher-velocity pitches like fastballs and sinkers , but also sliders , changeups and curves .
Southpaws were much less likely than RHPs to average 93 mph or more on their fastball ( 27 percent vs. 54 percent ) , and the ratio is even more extreme at the 94 mph threshold ( 14 percent vs. 38 percent ) .
Still , it is widely believed that “ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ captured by a radar gun .
Perhaps southpaws offset their speed handicap with superior movement on their pitches ?
To answer that question , we turned to Statcast data , found at Baseball Savant .
As a matter of physics , rotation is required to produce horizontal or physical movement on pitches .
Therefore , if southpaws are achieving superior movement , that should show up in the rate of spin on their pitches .
However , we found that LHPs generally have had lower spin rates on their pitches , both fastballs @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is changeups , on which LHPs display a higher spin rate .
Pitchers can differ in their ability to convert spin into movement that helps get batters out .
Theoretically , if LHPs harness their spin rate more effectively than RHPs , they could achieve better results from the same velocity .
There is no indication , however , that southpaws produce superior movement , even partially , to offset their velocity deficit .
We found that five types of break are strongly associated with pitcher success : fastball vertical break , sinker @ @ @ @ @ @ @ changeup vertical break and curveball horizontal break .
RHPs achieve more break on every key dimension , even after controlling for their higher velocity .
Pitch movement is just another arena of right-handed pitcher superiority .
The performance metrics all point to the same conclusion : When a left-hander is on the mound , the quality of pitches suffers considerably .
This skills gap makes perfect sense given lefties ’ overrepresentation relative to their share of the general population .
Professional baseball dips much deeper into the left-handed talent pool , so logically @ @ @ @ @ @ @ throwing ability .
However , the parity of outcomes must mean that some hidden factor gives southpaws a substantial advantage over right-handed pitchers that offsets that skill gap .
We believe the source of southpaws ’ “ extra ” success against hitters — beyond what the quality of their pitches can explain — is hitters ’ relative lack of familiarity with the look of pitches coming from the left side .
As young hitters first learn their craft , they face LHPs far less often than RHPs .
This lack of familiarity reduces @ @ @ @ @ @ @ effectively when incoming pitches come from the south side .
Paradoxically , it is the very scarcity of lefties that creates the surplus .
Or as famous left-handed hitter Yogi Berra would perhaps have expressed it , “ I wouldn ’ t have to hit against lefties so much if there were more of them.
” A review of the lefty advantage in other sports — both where it manifests , and where it doesn ’ t — generally supports this familiarity explanation .
A study of university students in 2000 found that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ more likely to be left-handed than non-sporting students .
Significantly , though , this surplus of lefties was not found in all sports : Left-handers were prevalent in “ interactive or confrontational sports , ” such as basketball , football , volleyball and boxing , but not in “ noninteractive or nonconfrontational sports , ” such as running , gymnastics , skiing and swimming .
In those sports , the researchers found , “ left-handers occur about as frequently as they do in the nonsporting population.
” More recent research finds that the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ where reaction times are very short , such as table tennis , cricket ( bowlers ) , and baseball ( pitchers ) .
Scientists believe this pattern reflects a “ negative perceptual frequency effect , ” meaning that because athletes confront left-handed opponents much less often , their ability to perceive , interpret and react to these opponents ’ movements is less developed .
This has been borne out by further experimental research : A 2009 study found that tennis players were better at predicting the direction and distance of shots made by @ @ @ @ @ @ @ opponent .
And a 2012 paper found that left-handed volleyball players ’ actions were significantly less accurately predicted than the outcome of right-handed players ’ attacks .
With extensive training and practice , athletes facing off against left-handers may be able to overcome this disadvantage in some sports .
However , in a team sport like baseball , regular practice against left-handed opponents is not a realistic option for most young players .
An exception who proves the rule was switch hitter Mickey Mantle , who as a boy hit frequently against his @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a remarkable career OPS of 1.000 against LHPs ( compared to “ just ” .965 against RHPs. )
.
For hitters , this unfamiliarity effect translates to greater discomfort when facing a southpaw , or a ( mis ) perception of greater pitch break .
Indeed , the persistent myth of the “ crafty ” lefty who disrupts hitters with nasty pitch movement — though not substantiated by scientific measurements — likely has its roots in this unfamiliarity effect .
How large is the southpaw advantage ?
We turn now to estimating the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ” which we define as the overall advantage a pitcher gains solely from being left-handed , as compared to a right-handed pitcher with equal pitch quality .
If we can identify a subset of LHPs who display similar underlying pitch quality as the right-handed population of pitchers , then any difference in their outcomes against hitters should reflect the southpaw advantage .
As we stated earlier , southpaws have pitched 28 percent of major league innings in recent years , despite representing just 10 percent of the male population .
So that means @ @ @ @ @ @ @ advantage , about 36 percent of current LHPs would be good enough to pitch in the major leagues .
And in that scenario , today ’ s RHPs would comprise the best 80 percent of all RHPs ( the other 20 percent consisting of lesser RHPs replacing demoted lefties ) .
Taking all that together , we hypothesize that the best 30 percent of current LHPs should have a pitch quality equal to the average for all RHPs .
And a corollary of that proposition is that the remaining 70 percent of today @ @ @ @ @ @ @ skill than even the weakest RHPs .
Does the data support this rather dramatic prediction ?
Returning to our sample of pitchers from 2007 through 2019 , we sorted them into three groups for each pitching hand based on regressed runs allowed per nine innings ( RA9 ) , giving us the top 30 percent , the middle 40 percent and the bottom 30 percent .
First , we see that LHPs demonstrate markedly lower pitch quality than RHPs at every performance level .
It is also apparent that more successful pitchers tend @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is by no means the entire story — the difference in runs allowed between adjacent tiers is larger than velocity alone can explain — but it ’ s clearly a strong signal of differences in talent .
Overall , the velocity data fits our hypothesis quite well .
The best southpaws ( top 30 percent ) throw their four-seam fastballs and sinkers at about the same velocity as the average or median right-handed pitcher ( actually a tick slower ) .
The gap is a bit larger on changeups and curveballs , with @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the average righties ’ .
Note that these top LHPs allow just 3.75 regressed runs per nine innings , fully 0.62 better than the average RHP .
To be conservative , we ’ ll ignore that the top lefties are actually a little worse than the righties they ’ re being compared against , and we ’ ll round down .
Our best estimate of the overall southpaw advantage , based on this data , is 0.60 RA9 .
As theorized , the bottom 70 percent of LHPs throw slower pitches than even @ @ @ @ @ @ @ pitch type .
If we compare the middle 40 percent of LHP to the bottom tier of RHPs , we see substantially lower velocity on fastballs ( 91.6 vs. 92.7 ) , sinkers ( 90.9 vs. 91.5 ) , cutters ( 86.1 vs. 87.6 ) and curves 76.8 vs. 77.8 ) .
The bottom performance tier of lefties , unsurprisingly , trails even further behind .
Could we be missing other differences in pitch quality that would narrow this large gap between LHPs ’ skill and outcomes ?
To check , we ran @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ” variables — velocity , spin , horizontal movement and vertical movement for seven different pitch types — to predict pitchers ’ success against hitters using expected weighted on-base average ( xwOBA ) .
This gave us a total pitch quality score for every pitcher , combining all speed and movement variables and weighted by their relative importance .
The results closely mirror our velocity-based analysis .
Once again , the top 30 percent of left-handed pitchers have virtually the same pitch quality ( velocity , spin , and movement corresponding to a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ( 4.15 ) .
And the remaining 70 percent of southpaws again display lesser pitch quality than the weakest RHPs .
Different methods confirm our core thesis : The top tier of LHPs are peers of the average RHPs in terms of pitch quality , with the unfamiliarity factor explaining their disparate outcomes .
Is it really plausible that MLB southpaws could be 0.60 runs per nine innings worse than their right-handed teammates , in terms of underlying pitching skill ?
We believe it is .
Research in 2010 by Mike Fast ( @ @ @ @ @ @ @ assistant to the general manager ) , demonstrated that a loss of 1 mph of fastball velocity increases runs allowed by 0.28 runs per nine innings on average .
So the fastball velocity differences that we found would alone create a LHP/RHP skills gap of about 0.40 runs .
In addition to velocity , RHPs are also superior on spin and many forms of pitch break , which must further widen the gap .
As further research makes more skill dimensions available as data , our estimate of 0.60 runs per game could @ @ @ @ @ @ @ this 0.60 skills/outcomes disparity is , the unfamiliarity advantage enjoyed by lefty pitchers is even larger still .
Remember , our measurement represents the combined net impact of the unfamiliarity bonus ( a positive for LHPs ) and the platoon penalty from facing more opposite-hand hitters ( a negative ) .
As mentioned earlier , we estimate that this platoon penalty increases RA9 of LHPs by about 0.20 relative to RHPs .
Adding this to our pitch quality-based estimate , we believe that left-handed pitchers ’ “ unfamiliarity bonus ” is a remarkable @ @ @ @ @ @ @ seems fair to say that the southpaw advantage has shaped the game we know in fundamental ways .
Obviously , an advantage of 0.60 in runs allowed per nine innings constitutes an enormous performance difference in the major leagues .
That ’ s the difference between excellent ( David Price , 3.63 ) and merely good ( Chris Archer , 4.28 ) , or between an average starting pitcher and a fifth starter struggling to keep a spot in the rotation .
Without southpaws ’ hidden advantage , about two out of three @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the bullpen , or in the minor leagues .
It ’ s safe to say that Chris Sale and Clayton Kershaw would still have jobs , but pitchers like Jon Lester and Dallas Keuchel would likely be average starters at best , rather than stars .
You would be able to count all the lefty pitchers in the Hall of Fame on your fingers , and every few years we might debate whether a southpaw will ever win the Cy Young Award again .
Back in our world , though , lefties get @ @ @ @ @ @ @ powerful than any PED .
Southpaws have long had to endure being stereotyped as “ weird ” or “ wacky , ” but they should be grateful for their perceived strangeness .
As it turns out , there really is “ one weird trick ” that vastly improves pitching performance : being born left-handed .

Editor’s note: Read the full study, “The Southpaw Advantage,” at FanGraphs.
Left-handed pitching has long been one of the most prized commodities in professional baseball. Teams strive to obtain lefty pitchers, and southpaws recognize their competitive edge. Two-sport athlete Tom Glavine explained his career choice this way: “I love both sports, but the deciding factor was, being a left-handed pitcher, I had a huge advantage in baseball because of that, and I didn’t have that type of advantage in hockey.” Even a century ago, Tris Speaker expressed the sport’s reverence for southpaws — if falling short as a trade analyst — when he reportedly opined that “taking the best left-handed pitcher in baseball and converting him into a right fielder is one of the dumbest things I ever heard.”
MLB rosters reflect this preference for lefties today. Although just 10 percent of American males throw with their left hand, fully 28 percent of innings thrown by MLB pitchers in the past decade — and 29 percent of starts — came from the left side. Remarkably, lefty pitchers make it to the big leagues about three times as frequently as righties, given their share of the general population. What accounts for this huge surplus of southpaws?
The traditional explanation has pinned responsibility on baseball’s platoon advantage, in which hitters perform better in opposite-hand matchups while pitchers have the edge in same-handed contests. Since left-handed hitters have the platoon edge much more often than right-handed hitters, they have an edge in the competition for MLB jobs and end up overrepresented on offense. In response, the story goes, teams then stock up on left-handed pitchers to counter the advantage offenses gain from their excess of left-handed hitters.
The first half of this story is generally correct. When a batter hits with the platoon advantage, his on-base plus slugging percentage is more than 80 points higher than when he faces a same-handed pitcher, and left-handed batters enjoy this advantage far more often (73 percent of plate appearances) than right-handed hitters do (29 percent). The result is that over 40 percent of MLB plate appearances are taken from the left side.
The pitching component of this narrative, however, does not withstand scrutiny. It’s true that pitchers face left-handed hitters more frequently than they would in the general population, but that isn’t the relevant factor in the competition for pitching jobs. On the field, what matters is that left-handed pitchers (LHPs) only enjoy the platoon advantage 29 percent of the time, far less than the 53 percent rate for right-handed pitchers (RHPs). Southpaws actually pay a severe “platoon penalty,” and would allow fewer runs — about 0.20 runs per game, by our estimate — if they held the platoon advantage as often as right-handed pitchers do.
Far from helping to explain the southpaw surplus, the platoon effect must actually suppress the number of left-handed pitchers. So the question remains: Why are there so many left-handed pitchers in Major League Baseball? They should be nearly extinct, but in fact they thrive. What’s going on?
We believe that left-handed pitchers have a hidden advantage that has nothing to do with their ability to throw a baseball, based solely on the fact that they throw with their left hand. This “southpaw advantage” is substantial enough to generate a large surplus of lefty pitchers on rosters and shape the game in profound ways. Indeed, our analysis suggests that a substantial majority of MLB left-handed pitchers could not survive in the majors if they threw right-handed but had otherwise identical talent.
If you are skeptical, well, so were we. But as the kids say, we have receipts.
Southpaws are inferior (except at getting batters out)
At the heart of the mystery of handedness and pitching lies a crucial but underappreciated distinction: outcomes vs. pitch quality. MLB left-handers are just as successful as right-handers at retiring batters, but they are not truly peers when it comes to throwing a baseball. In terms of the quality of the pitches they make — as measured by observable factors such as velocity and movement — southpaws are simply not in the same league as righties.
For this analysis, we used data from Pitch Info published by FanGraphs to look at all players who pitched at least 100 innings from 2007 through 2019, a total of 300 LHPs (143,168 IP) and 839 RHPs (379,347 IP). As you can see from the table below, the lefties and righties had virtually equal outcomes. Not only do they surrender the same number of runs — 4.34 and 4.37 per nine innings, respectively — but they arrive at this result via the same path, posting virtually identical strikeout, walk and home run rates.
At first blush, lefties and righties look the same Pitching metrics, including batting average on balls in play (BABIP) and fielding-independent pitching (FIP), by pitcher handedness, 2007-2019 Per nine innings Pitchers Runs Strikeouts Walks Home runs BABIP FIP Left-handers 4.34 7.7 3.2 1.0 .296 4.07 Right-handers 4.37 7.6 3.1 1.1 .293 4.09 For pitchers with a minimum of 100 innings pitched. Source: FanGraphs
However, pitch quality metrics — which remove the pitcher-hitter interaction — paint a very different picture. Velocity is the single most important pitcher skill, and LHPs consistently throw slower pitches than RHPs. From 2007 to 2019, left-handers registered a substantially lower velocity for every type of pitch tracked, including not only higher-velocity pitches like fastballs and sinkers, but also sliders, changeups and curves. Southpaws were much less likely than RHPs to average 93 mph or more on their fastball (27 percent vs. 54 percent), and the ratio is even more extreme at the 94 mph threshold (14 percent vs. 38 percent).
Lefties don’t throw as hard as righties do Average velocity in miles per hour by pitch type and pitcher handedness, 2007-2019 Pitchers Four-Seam Sinker Cutter Slider Change Curve Left-handers 91.8 90.7 86.6 82.8 82.5 76.7 Right-handers 93.3 92.0 88.7 84.7 84.2 78.6 Difference -1.5 -1.3 -2.1 -1.9 -1.7 -1.9 For pitchers with a minimum of 100 innings pitched. Source: FanGraphs
Still, it is widely believed that “crafty” lefties have other skills not captured by a radar gun. Perhaps southpaws offset their speed handicap with superior movement on their pitches? To answer that question, we turned to Statcast data, found at Baseball Savant.
As a matter of physics, rotation is required to produce horizontal or physical movement on pitches. Therefore, if southpaws are achieving superior movement, that should show up in the rate of spin on their pitches. However, we found that LHPs generally have had lower spin rates on their pitches, both fastballs and off-speed pitches. The only exception is changeups, on which LHPs display a higher spin rate.
Lefties get less spin on most of their pitches, too Average spin rate in revolutions per minute by pitch type and pitcher handedness, 2017-2019 Pitchers Four-seam Sinker Cutter Slider Change Curve Left-handers 2241 2124 2236 2343 1836 2420 Right-handers 2281 2157 2400 2421 1758 2537 Difference -40 -33 -164 -78 +78 -117 For pitchers with at least 50 pitches thrown in a given season. Source: Baseball Savant
Pitchers can differ in their ability to convert spin into movement that helps get batters out. Theoretically, if LHPs harness their spin rate more effectively than RHPs, they could achieve better results from the same velocity. There is no indication, however, that southpaws produce superior movement, even partially, to offset their velocity deficit. We found that five types of break are strongly associated with pitcher success: fastball vertical break, sinker vertical break, slider horizontal break, changeup vertical break and curveball horizontal break. RHPs achieve more break on every key dimension, even after controlling for their higher velocity. Pitch movement is just another arena of right-handed pitcher superiority.
The performance metrics all point to the same conclusion: When a left-hander is on the mound, the quality of pitches suffers considerably. This skills gap makes perfect sense given lefties’ overrepresentation relative to their share of the general population. Professional baseball dips much deeper into the left-handed talent pool, so logically it should be enlisting players with lesser throwing ability. However, the parity of outcomes must mean that some hidden factor gives southpaws a substantial advantage over right-handed pitchers that offsets that skill gap.
Southpaws’ hidden advantage: the unfamiliarity bonus
We believe the source of southpaws’ “extra” success against hitters — beyond what the quality of their pitches can explain — is hitters’ relative lack of familiarity with the look of pitches coming from the left side. As young hitters first learn their craft, they face LHPs far less often than RHPs. This lack of familiarity reduces hitters’ ability to react quickly and effectively when incoming pitches come from the south side.
Paradoxically, it is the very scarcity of lefties that creates the surplus. Or as famous left-handed hitter Yogi Berra would perhaps have expressed it, “I wouldn’t have to hit against lefties so much if there were more of them.”
A review of the lefty advantage in other sports — both where it manifests, and where it doesn’t — generally supports this familiarity explanation. A study of university students in 2000 found that those involved in competitive sports were considerably more likely to be left-handed than non-sporting students. Significantly, though, this surplus of lefties was not found in all sports: Left-handers were prevalent in “interactive or confrontational sports,” such as basketball, football, volleyball and boxing, but not in “noninteractive or nonconfrontational sports,” such as running, gymnastics, skiing and swimming. In those sports, the researchers found, “left-handers occur about as frequently as they do in the nonsporting population.”
More recent research finds that the left-handers are particularly overrepresented in ball sports where reaction times are very short, such as table tennis, cricket (bowlers), and baseball (pitchers).
Scientists believe this pattern reflects a “negative perceptual frequency effect,” meaning that because athletes confront left-handed opponents much less often, their ability to perceive, interpret and react to these opponents’ movements is less developed. This has been borne out by further experimental research: A 2009 study found that tennis players were better at predicting the direction and distance of shots made by a right-handed opponent than by a left-handed opponent. And a 2012 paper found that left-handed volleyball players’ actions were significantly less accurately predicted than the outcome of right-handed players’ attacks.
With extensive training and practice, athletes facing off against left-handers may be able to overcome this disadvantage in some sports. However, in a team sport like baseball, regular practice against left-handed opponents is not a realistic option for most young players. An exception who proves the rule was switch hitter Mickey Mantle, who as a boy hit frequently against his southpaw grandfather and went on to post a remarkable career OPS of 1.000 against LHPs (compared to “just” .965 against RHPs.).
For hitters, this unfamiliarity effect translates to greater discomfort when facing a southpaw, or a (mis)perception of greater pitch break. Indeed, the persistent myth of the “crafty” lefty who disrupts hitters with nasty pitch movement — though not substantiated by scientific measurements — likely has its roots in this unfamiliarity effect.
How large is the southpaw advantage?
We turn now to estimating the size of the “southpaw advantage,” which we define as the overall advantage a pitcher gains solely from being left-handed, as compared to a right-handed pitcher with equal pitch quality. If we can identify a subset of LHPs who display similar underlying pitch quality as the right-handed population of pitchers, then any difference in their outcomes against hitters should reflect the southpaw advantage.
As we stated earlier, southpaws have pitched 28 percent of major league innings in recent years, despite representing just 10 percent of the male population. So that means in an alternate universe without any southpaw advantage, about 36 percent of current LHPs would be good enough to pitch in the major leagues. And in that scenario, today’s RHPs would comprise the best 80 percent of all RHPs (the other 20 percent consisting of lesser RHPs replacing demoted lefties).
Taking all that together, we hypothesize that the best 30 percent of current LHPs should have a pitch quality equal to the average for all RHPs. And a corollary of that proposition is that the remaining 70 percent of today’s LHPs will display less underlying skill than even the weakest RHPs.
Does the data support this rather dramatic prediction? Returning to our sample of pitchers from 2007 through 2019, we sorted them into three groups for each pitching hand based on regressed runs allowed per nine innings (RA9), giving us the top 30 percent, the middle 40 percent and the bottom 30 percent.
First, we see that LHPs demonstrate markedly lower pitch quality than RHPs at every performance level. It is also apparent that more successful pitchers tend to throw at higher velocities. Velocity is by no means the entire story — the difference in runs allowed between adjacent tiers is larger than velocity alone can explain — but it’s clearly a strong signal of differences in talent.
Overall, the velocity data fits our hypothesis quite well. The best southpaws (top 30 percent) throw their four-seam fastballs and sinkers at about the same velocity as the average or median right-handed pitcher (actually a tick slower). The gap is a bit larger on changeups and curveballs, with the best lefties’ velocity lower than the average righties’.
Note that these top LHPs allow just 3.75 regressed runs per nine innings, fully 0.62 better than the average RHP. To be conservative, we’ll ignore that the top lefties are actually a little worse than the righties they’re being compared against, and we’ll round down. Our best estimate of the overall southpaw advantage, based on this data, is 0.60 RA9.
Top LHPs throw as hard as RHPs but allow fewer runs Average velocity by pitch type and runs allowed per nine innings (RA9) for the top 30 percent of left-handed pitchers vs. all right-handed pitchers Velocity (in mph) Pitchers FOUR-seam Sinker Cutter Curve RA9 Top 30% of lefties 93.1 91.7 87.9 77.3 3.75 All righties 93.3 92.0 88.7 78.6 4.37 Source: FanGraphs
As theorized, the bottom 70 percent of LHPs throw slower pitches than even the weakest group of RHPs on each pitch type. If we compare the middle 40 percent of LHP to the bottom tier of RHPs, we see substantially lower velocity on fastballs (91.6 vs. 92.7), sinkers (90.9 vs. 91.5), cutters (86.1 vs. 87.6) and curves 76.8 vs. 77.8). The bottom performance tier of lefties, unsurprisingly, trails even further behind.
Could we be missing other differences in pitch quality that would narrow this large gap between LHPs’ skill and outcomes? To check, we ran a regression using 28 Statcast “skill” variables — velocity, spin, horizontal movement and vertical movement for seven different pitch types — to predict pitchers’ success against hitters using expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA). This gave us a total pitch quality score for every pitcher, combining all speed and movement variables and weighted by their relative importance.
The results closely mirror our velocity-based analysis. Once again, the top 30 percent of left-handed pitchers have virtually the same pitch quality (velocity, spin, and movement corresponding to a 4.20 RA9) as right-handed pitchers overall (4.15). And the remaining 70 percent of southpaws again display lesser pitch quality than the weakest RHPs. Different methods confirm our core thesis: The top tier of LHPs are peers of the average RHPs in terms of pitch quality, with the unfamiliarity factor explaining their disparate outcomes.
Is it really plausible that MLB southpaws could be 0.60 runs per nine innings worse than their right-handed teammates, in terms of underlying pitching skill? We believe it is.
Research in 2010 by Mike Fast (now with the Atlanta Braves as special assistant to the general manager), demonstrated that a loss of 1 mph of fastball velocity increases runs allowed by 0.28 runs per nine innings on average. So the fastball velocity differences that we found would alone create a LHP/RHP skills gap of about 0.40 runs. In addition to velocity, RHPs are also superior on spin and many forms of pitch break, which must further widen the gap. As further research makes more skill dimensions available as data, our estimate of 0.60 runs per game could even prove conservative.
As large as this 0.60 skills/outcomes disparity is, the unfamiliarity advantage enjoyed by lefty pitchers is even larger still. Remember, our measurement represents the combined net impact of the unfamiliarity bonus (a positive for LHPs) and the platoon penalty from facing more opposite-hand hitters (a negative). As mentioned earlier, we estimate that this platoon penalty increases RA9 of LHPs by about 0.20 relative to RHPs. Adding this to our pitch quality-based estimate, we believe that left-handed pitchers’ “unfamiliarity bonus” is a remarkable 0.80 runs per nine innings.
Conclusion
It seems fair to say that the southpaw advantage has shaped the game we know in fundamental ways. Obviously, an advantage of 0.60 in runs allowed per nine innings constitutes an enormous performance difference in the major leagues. That’s the difference between excellent (David Price, 3.63) and merely good (Chris Archer, 4.28), or between an average starting pitcher and a fifth starter struggling to keep a spot in the rotation.
Without southpaws’ hidden advantage, about two out of three left-handed starters would likely be toiling in the bullpen, or in the minor leagues. It’s safe to say that Chris Sale and Clayton Kershaw would still have jobs, but pitchers like Jon Lester and Dallas Keuchel would likely be average starters at best, rather than stars. You would be able to count all the lefty pitchers in the Hall of Fame on your fingers, and every few years we might debate whether a southpaw will ever win the Cy Young Award again.
Back in our world, though, lefties get to enjoy a hidden advantage perhaps more powerful than any PED. Southpaws have long had to endure being stereotyped as “weird” or “wacky,” but they should be grateful for their perceived strangeness. As it turns out, there really is “one weird trick” that vastly improves pitching performance: being born left-handed.


fivethirthyeight--2020-08-18--After Manchester City’s Big Loss, Who’s The Favorite To Win The Champions League?

FiveThirtyEight ’ s club soccer prediction model favored Manchester City to win the Champions League for most of the 2019-20 season .
The Cityzens were so good , in fact , that they spent 62 percent of the season at the top of the model ’ s probability table .
Only Liverpool ( the current holders of both the Champions League and Premier League trophies ) and Bayern Munich ( the German champions for eight seasons running and perennial Champions League contenders ) managed to leapfrog City as favorites to win this rendition of club soccer ’ s elite competition @ @ @ @ @ @ @ percent of the season in its role as front-runner .
So when domestic rival Liverpool was eliminated in early March , it appeared as though the only thing that stood between City and its first ever Champions League trophy was Bayern .
This was City ’ s title to win — until it wasn ’ t .
When the moment presented itself for Pep Guardiola to progress to his first Champions League final as City manager , he met with the same fate as in competitions past .
He seemed to overthink his @ @ @ @ @ @ @ made the Catalan pay a steep price , beating City 3-1 .
VAR controversy , a shocking miss from Raheem Sterling and an uncharacteristic error from otherwise sure-handed keeper Ederson didn ’ t make things any easier on City , but the Mancunians were likely doomed by Guardiola ’ s inexplicable decision to roll with a tragically stodgy 3-5-2 formation — a conservative tactical setup he hadn ’ t employed all season in any competition and one that effectively negated the creative swagger of midfield maestro Kevin De Bruyne for large stretches of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Champions League exit at the hands of Lyon isn ’ t its first shock defeat in the competition in recent memory — who can forget last season ’ s quarterfinal second leg against Tottenham Hotspur and the attendant VAR controversies ?
— but it ’ s perhaps its most indefensible .
It ’ s true that , along with Paris Saint-Germain , Lyon has been the most successful club in France in the 21st century , winning seven domestic titles in the past 20 seasons .
But Les Gones have been the picture @ @ @ @ @ @ @ an undistinguished seventh place in Ligue 1 in 2019-20 , which means they won ’ t qualify for next season ’ s Champions League unless they win the competition this season .
The model hasn ’ t liked the French club since Day One .
Before it eliminated City , Lyon ’ s probability to win the Champions League never rose above 1 percent .
Losing to Liverpool in 2017-18 and to Spurs in 2018-19 is one thing ; losing to a team that started its Champions League campaign with the same win @ @ @ @ @ @ @ which the model currently ranks as the 90th-best team in the world , is an entirely different thing .
City failed this time around unlike it ’ s ever failed before , and in doing so opened the door for Bayern to win its sixth European championship .
The Bavarian club is now the heavy favorite to lift the Champions League trophy , and for good reason .
Bayern has been the most relentless offensive force in the competition so far , setting the pace in almost every significant statistical category per 90 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in terms of shot-creating actions , goal-creating actions , shots on target , total shots , expected goals , expected assists , expected goals plus expected assists , nonpenalty expected goals , nonpenalty expected goals plus expected assists , and actual goals scored .
And its lead in some of those statistical categories is so vast , it ’ s almost silly .
The Bavarians boast the most prolific scorer in the Champions League — and perhaps the best striker on the planet — in Robert Lewandowski , who leads all players in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ trails only PSG ’ s Kylian Mbappé in nonpenalty expected goals plus assists per 90 minutes .
“ Lewa ” isn ’ t Bayern ’ s only weapon , however — Ivan Perišić , Thomas Müller , Philippe Coutinho , Serge Gnabry and Corentin Tolisso each ranks in the top 35 in nonpenalty expected goals plus assists per 90 minutes .
Given its 8-2 thrashing of Barcelona , Bayern shouldn ’ t have much trouble with Lyon , despite the French club ’ s upset of the competition ’ s previous favorite .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ , but it is outperforming its expected goals against tally so far , suggesting that something ’ s got to give eventually .
And if that something gives against the competition ’ s most devastating attack , Lyon can ’ t expect its goalkeeper to come to the rescue : Among keepers who have played at least six full matches , Anthony Lopes is tied for the fourth-worst post-shot expected goals minus goals allowed per 90 minutes .
Of course , Bayern and Lyon aren ’ t the only teams remaining in the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the bracket , PSG will square off with RB Leipzig , and a healthy Mbappé means Les Parisiens are the rightful favorites in this semifinal clash .
The French phenom came on as a second-half substitute of PSG ’ s quarterfinal matchup against Atalanta and shifted the tides for Les Rouge et Bleu .
His brilliant run and perfectly weighted square ball to Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting , who tapped the ball into a gaping net , completed PSG ’ s comeback and ensured its spot in the Champions League semifinal round for the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Neymar in your squad doesn ’ t hurt either — the ball he played to Mbappé on the move that led to Choupo-Moting ’ s goal was as good as it gets , proving the Brazilian can be the best player on the pitch whenever he decides to be .
RB Leipzig isn ’ t without hope against PSG .
The club is exceptionally well drilled and tactically sophisticated , and as such is capable of beating just about any opponent in a one-off game .
But it did just lose its best @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , which means some of its attacking prowess disappeared .
Red Bull was able to sneak past Atlético Madrid , but if it can ’ t replace Werner ’ s goals , it might find it difficult to replicate that result against PSG , which has given up the fewest goals in the Champions League this season .
Then again , if Bayern keeps playing the way it ’ s been playing all season , it might not matter what happens in the game between PSG and Leipzig .
The Bavarians seem simply @ @ @ @ @

FiveThirtyEight’s club soccer prediction model favored Manchester City to win the Champions League for most of the 2019-20 season. The Cityzens were so good, in fact, that they spent 62 percent of the season at the top of the model’s probability table. Only Liverpool (the current holders of both the Champions League and Premier League trophies) and Bayern Munich (the German champions for eight seasons running and perennial Champions League contenders) managed to leapfrog City as favorites to win this rendition of club soccer’s elite competition, but neither spent more than 22 percent of the season in its role as front-runner.
So when domestic rival Liverpool was eliminated in early March, it appeared as though the only thing that stood between City and its first ever Champions League trophy was Bayern. This was City’s title to win — until it wasn’t.
When the moment presented itself for Pep Guardiola to progress to his first Champions League final as City manager, he met with the same fate as in competitions past. He seemed to overthink his tactics, and French club Olympique Lyonnais made the Catalan pay a steep price, beating City 3-1. VAR controversy, a shocking miss from Raheem Sterling and an uncharacteristic error from otherwise sure-handed keeper Ederson didn’t make things any easier on City, but the Mancunians were likely doomed by Guardiola’s inexplicable decision to roll with a tragically stodgy 3-5-2 formation — a conservative tactical setup he hadn’t employed all season in any competition and one that effectively negated the creative swagger of midfield maestro Kevin De Bruyne for large stretches of the game.
City’s dramatic Champions League exit at the hands of Lyon isn’t its first shock defeat in the competition in recent memory — who can forget last season’s quarterfinal second leg against Tottenham Hotspur and the attendant VAR controversies? — but it’s perhaps its most indefensible.
It’s true that, along with Paris Saint-Germain, Lyon has been the most successful club in France in the 21st century, winning seven domestic titles in the past 20 seasons. But Les Gones have been the picture of mediocrity this season: They finished an undistinguished seventh place in Ligue 1 in 2019-20, which means they won’t qualify for next season’s Champions League unless they win the competition this season.
The model hasn’t liked the French club since Day One. Before it eliminated City, Lyon’s probability to win the Champions League never rose above 1 percent. Losing to Liverpool in 2017-18 and to Spurs in 2018-19 is one thing; losing to a team that started its Champions League campaign with the same win probability as Czech club Slavia Prague, which the model currently ranks as the 90th-best team in the world, is an entirely different thing. City failed this time around unlike it’s ever failed before, and in doing so opened the door for Bayern to win its sixth European championship.
The Bavarian club is now the heavy favorite to lift the Champions League trophy, and for good reason. Bayern has been the most relentless offensive force in the competition so far, setting the pace in almost every significant statistical category per 90 minutes: It leads all other clubs in terms of shot-creating actions, goal-creating actions, shots on target, total shots, expected goals, expected assists, expected goals plus expected assists, nonpenalty expected goals, nonpenalty expected goals plus expected assists, and actual goals scored. And its lead in some of those statistical categories is so vast, it’s almost silly.
Bayern’s creation is miles ahead of the field Shot- and goal-creating actions during 2019-20 Champions League play for the eight quarterfinalists, through Aug. 15, 2020 Shot-creating actions Goal-creating actions Team Total Per 90 min. Total Per 90 min. Bayern Munich 309 34.33 59 6.56 Paris Saint-Germain 180 20.00 39 4.33 Manchester City 238 26.44 36 4.00 RB Leipzig 213 23.67 28 3.11 Barcelona 169 18.78 26 2.89 Atalanta 197 21.89 25 2.78 Lyon 158 17.56 19 2.11 Atlético Madrid 178 19.07 19 2.04 Shot- and goal-creating actions include the two plays leading up to a shot or goal. Source: FBRef.com
The Bavarians boast the most prolific scorer in the Champions League — and perhaps the best striker on the planet — in Robert Lewandowski, who leads all players in nonpenalty expected goals per 90 minutes and trails only PSG’s Kylian Mbappé in nonpenalty expected goals plus assists per 90 minutes. “Lewa” isn’t Bayern’s only weapon, however — Ivan Perišić, Thomas Müller, Philippe Coutinho, Serge Gnabry and Corentin Tolisso each ranks in the top 35 in nonpenalty expected goals plus assists per 90 minutes.
Given its 8-2 thrashing of Barcelona, Bayern shouldn’t have much trouble with Lyon, despite the French club’s upset of the competition’s previous favorite. Lyon is reasonably well organized in defense, but it is outperforming its expected goals against tally so far, suggesting that something’s got to give eventually. And if that something gives against the competition’s most devastating attack, Lyon can’t expect its goalkeeper to come to the rescue: Among keepers who have played at least six full matches, Anthony Lopes is tied for the fourth-worst post-shot expected goals minus goals allowed per 90 minutes.
Of course, Bayern and Lyon aren’t the only teams remaining in the competition. On the other side of the bracket, PSG will square off with RB Leipzig, and a healthy Mbappé means Les Parisiens are the rightful favorites in this semifinal clash. The French phenom came on as a second-half substitute of PSG’s quarterfinal matchup against Atalanta and shifted the tides for Les Rouge et Bleu.
His brilliant run and perfectly weighted square ball to Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting, who tapped the ball into a gaping net, completed PSG’s comeback and ensured its spot in the Champions League semifinal round for the first time in 25 years. Having Neymar in your squad doesn’t hurt either — the ball he played to Mbappé on the move that led to Choupo-Moting’s goal was as good as it gets, proving the Brazilian can be the best player on the pitch whenever he decides to be.
RB Leipzig isn’t without hope against PSG. The club is exceptionally well drilled and tactically sophisticated, and as such is capable of beating just about any opponent in a one-off game. But it did just lose its best player (Timo Werner) to Chelsea, which means some of its attacking prowess disappeared. Red Bull was able to sneak past Atlético Madrid, but if it can’t replace Werner’s goals, it might find it difficult to replicate that result against PSG, which has given up the fewest goals in the Champions League this season.
Then again, if Bayern keeps playing the way it’s been playing all season, it might not matter what happens in the game between PSG and Leipzig. The Bavarians seem simply untouchable at the moment.
Check out our latest soccer predictions.


fivethirthyeight--2020-08-18--What To Watch In Today’s Elections In Alaska, Florida And Wyoming

From sea to shining sea ( via purple mountains majesty ) , today ’ s primary elections have it all .
To have a prayer in November , Alaska Democrats may have to nominate … candidates who are not Democrats .
In Florida , three campaigns for Congress have devolved into backbiting and criminal accusations .
And in deep-red Wyoming , today ’ s primary will essentially decide the state ’ s next U.S. senator .
Here ’ s everything you need to know .
In 2018 , Republican Rep. Don Young — the longest-serving member of Congress — won @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Notably , his opponent in that race , businesswoman Alyse Galvin , wasn ’ t even technically a Democrat .
She was an independent who ran for and won the Democratic nomination .
Two years later , Democrats are trying to double their luck with the same trick : Galvin is running again for U.S. House , and independent Al Gross is the prohibitive favorite in the Democratic primary for U.S. Senate .
Gross , a surgeon and fisherman with a bear of an introductory ad , enjoys the endorsement of the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ $ 5.2 million .
Of course , both Galvin and Gross will still face uphill general election campaigns in this red state , but Alaska has a strong independent streak , so Young and Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan can ’ t take anything for granted .
Fresh off a victory in the 2018 election , Republican Rep. Ross Spano of Florida ’ s 15th Congressional District was riding high — until he was faced with the possibility he violated campaign finance law .
In a December 2018 filing with the Federal Election Commission @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 180,000 from two friends and then loaned $ 167,000 to his own campaign .
Since individuals were not allowed to give a candidate more than $ 2,700 per election in 2018 , this could be seen as laundering campaign contributions .
The House Ethics Committee launched an investigation , and in November 2019 we learned that the Justice Department had opened a criminal inquiry .
Unsurprisingly , Spano is now facing stiff reelection challenges from both parties .
In the Republican primary , Lakeland City Commissioner Scott Franklin has hammered Spano as a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ insists he didn ’ t know his actions were illegal and is framing himself as a victim of a partisan witch hunt .
For his part , Spano has tried to paint Franklin as insufficiently loyal to President Trump — something that has become par for the course in GOP primaries .
Both candidates have also accused the other of not being tough enough on illegal immigration .
While Spano has the support of the party establishment , including most of the Republicans serving Florida in Congress , a few high-profile local conservatives @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 29 , Spano had outspent Franklin , $ 824,000 to $ 483,000 , and the incumbent ’ s allies at the anti-tax Club for Growth also invested more than $ 270,000 .
But an upset may nonetheless be brewing : Last week , St. Pete Polls found the two men locked in a virtual tie .
Whoever wins will face either investigative journalist Alan Cohn or state Rep. Adam Hattersley , who are squaring off in an evenly matched Democratic primary of their own .
As of July 29 , Cohn had spent @ @ @ @ @ @ @ $ 406,600 ) , but Hattersley had more cash on hand for the final three weeks ( $ 236,000 to $ 130,000 ) .
Although the two don ’ t differ much on policy , Cohn has dinged Hattersley for being too moderate ( he has some endorsements from moderate groups and didn ’ t register as a Democrat until 2018 ) .
Hattersley , though , has appropriated that argument to claim he ’ s the more electable candidate — which might be persuasive given that Trump carried this central Florida district @ @ @ @ @ @ @ other Republican primaries in Florida are also on our radar because they ’ ll likely determine future members of Congress due to the GOP lean of the seats .
First , the 19th Congressional District in southwest Florida is open following the retirement of Republican Rep. Francis Rooney , and there are four candidates in serious contention : businessman Casey Askar , state Rep. Byron Donalds , state House Majority Leader Dane Eagle and physician William Figlesthaler .
One of Figlesthaler ’ s ads aptly describes the contest as “ the race to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the candidates are fighting for pole position .
Figlesthaler says he ’ ll back Trump ’ s “ America First agenda , ” while Eagle argues his experience as a GOP leader makes him the best choice to stand with Trump and “ fight for America.
” Donalds emphasizes that he ’ s a “ Trump-supporting , gun-owning , liberty-loving , pro-life , politically incorrect Black man.
” And Askar proclaims that he ’ ll “ always have the president ’ s back ” in Trump ’ s battle against the media , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ And as the race has heated up , things have gotten nasty .
In one ad , Askar stresses that when he was 18 , he signed up for the Marines , whereas Donalds was arrested for drug possession at 19 and Eagle got a DUI at 31 .
He ’ s also argued that Donalds lied to get a state job and opposed Trump in the past , attacks that got a “ Mostly False ” rating from PolitiFact .
But Askar ’ s military service and educational background have been called @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for his opponents .
And outside groups have also dinged Askar for past contributions to Mitt Romney .
They ’ ve also criticized Figlesthaler for giving money to former Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson ( who lost in 2018 ) and not donating to Trump in the 2016 presidential race .
However , because Askar and Figlesthaler are largely self-funding their campaigns , they ’ ve dramatically outspent Donalds and Eagle .
Askar has raised about $ 3.7 million ( with $ 3 million from personal loans ) , while Figlesthaler has brought in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ $ 1.9 million self-funded ) .
Conversely , Donalds has collected roughly $ 1.2 million and Eagle just about $ 741,000 .
However , Donalds has far and away the most outside help thanks to his endorsement from the Club for Growth .
The group ’ s campaign arm has spent about $ 1.4 million boosting Donalds and another $ 1.1 million hitting the other three candidates ( mainly Askar ) .
And Conservative Outsider PAC , another Donalds ally , has also spent $ 459,000 attacking Eagle .
As the campaign draws @ @ @ @ @ @ @ looks like anyone ’ s race .
An early August survey from St. Pete Polls found the four candidates separated by just 6 points , with Donalds attracting 22 percent support , Figlesthaler 21 percent , Eagle 20 percent and Askar 16 percent .
Meanwhile , the 3rd Congressional District in north Florida also has a busy primary to replace retiring Republican Rep. Ted Yoho .
The contest lacks a front-runner , but the most prominent contenders appear to be former Yoho staffer Kat Cammack , businessman Judson Sapp and physician James St. @ @ @ @ @ @ @ race has centered on Cammack , who has gained notoriety for running fowl-themed ads in which she calls her opponents and D.C. Republicans too “ chicken ” to stand up for conservative values .
She ’ s played up her connections to Yoho , too , but those ties have recently come under scrutiny .
In late June , Yoho ’ s son claimed Cammack had been fired as his father ’ s chief of staff and expressed frustration that Cammack made it sound like the congressman backed her .
Following his son @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that Cammack had been demoted to deputy chief of staff and reassigned to the district office in 2013 “ for reasons not to be disclosed , ” and later reiterated that he wasn ’ t endorsing anyone .
As for St. George and Sapp , they have also touted their conservative credentials , support for Trump and opposition to the political left .
They ’ ve also brought more financial resources to the race than Cammack .
As of July 29 , St. George had raised about $ 922,000 ( $ 600,000 from @ @ @ @ @ @ @ who won 24 percent in the 2018 primary against Yoho , had collected $ 770,000 ( $ 500,000 self-funded ) .
By comparison , Cammack had gathered about $ 492,000 in contributions with very little self-funding .
But Cammack has benefited from the only significant outside spending in the race : $ 300,000 by the Sen. Rand Paul-aligned Protect Freedom PAC .
( Paul has endorsed Cammack . )
And the only recent poll we have of the race suggests Cammack might come out on top with a plurality of the vote .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ Cammack garnering 25 percent , Sapp 15 percent and St. George 13 percent .
However , 20 percent were still undecided and seven other candidates also attracted support .
Cammack doesn ’ t have an overwhelming lead , so it ’ s entirely possible one of the other contenders might still best her today .
With the retirement of Republican Sen. Mike Enzi , the GOP primary for Wyoming ’ s Senate seat is also in the cards , and the winner of this election is essentially guaranteed to become the state ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ arguably the most Republican state in the nation .
Admittedly , there ’ s not much drama here as former Rep. Cynthia Lummis is a pretty clear front-runner despite the fact that there are 10 candidates on the GOP primary ballot .
But we mention this race because Lummis ’ s likely election could be meaningful for Republican gender diversity in the Senate .
At present , just nine of the 26 women in the Senate are Republicans .
Six of them are up for election this November , with four in real @ @ @ @ @ @ @ go poorly for the GOP , Lummis could be important to shoring up gender representation within the party ’ s caucus .
Things are busiest in Florida today , but there are intriguing reasons to watch what happens in Alaska and Wyoming , too .
There aren ’ t many primary or runoff contests left in 2020 , so enjoy primary season while it lasts .

From sea to shining sea (via purple mountains majesty), today’s primary elections have it all. To have a prayer in November, Alaska Democrats may have to nominate … candidates who are not Democrats. In Florida, three campaigns for Congress have devolved into backbiting and criminal accusations. And in deep-red Wyoming, today’s primary will essentially decide the state’s next U.S. senator. Here’s everything you need to know.
Alaska
In 2018, Republican Rep. Don Young — the longest-serving member of Congress — won reelection by less than 7 percentage points. Notably, his opponent in that race, businesswoman Alyse Galvin, wasn’t even technically a Democrat. She was an independent who ran for and won the Democratic nomination.
Two years later, Democrats are trying to double their luck with the same trick: Galvin is running again for U.S. House, and independent Al Gross is the prohibitive favorite in the Democratic primary for U.S. Senate. Gross, a surgeon and fisherman with a bear of an introductory ad, enjoys the endorsement of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee and has raised $5.2 million. Of course, both Galvin and Gross will still face uphill general election campaigns in this red state, but Alaska has a strong independent streak, so Young and Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan can’t take anything for granted.
Florida
Fresh off a victory in the 2018 election, Republican Rep. Ross Spano of Florida’s 15th Congressional District was riding high — until he was faced with the possibility he violated campaign finance law. In a December 2018 filing with the Federal Election Commission, Spano disclosed that he borrowed $180,000 from two friends and then loaned $167,000 to his own campaign. Since individuals were not allowed to give a candidate more than $2,700 per election in 2018, this could be seen as laundering campaign contributions. The House Ethics Committee launched an investigation, and in November 2019 we learned that the Justice Department had opened a criminal inquiry.
Unsurprisingly, Spano is now facing stiff reelection challenges from both parties. In the Republican primary, Lakeland City Commissioner Scott Franklin has hammered Spano as a “criminal” in ads; Spano insists he didn’t know his actions were illegal and is framing himself as a victim of a partisan witch hunt. For his part, Spano has tried to paint Franklin as insufficiently loyal to President Trump — something that has become par for the course in GOP primaries. Both candidates have also accused the other of not being tough enough on illegal immigration.
While Spano has the support of the party establishment, including most of the Republicans serving Florida in Congress, a few high-profile local conservatives have endorsed Franklin. As of July 29, Spano had outspent Franklin, $824,000 to $483,000, and the incumbent’s allies at the anti-tax Club for Growth also invested more than $270,000. But an upset may nonetheless be brewing: Last week, St. Pete Polls found the two men locked in a virtual tie.
Whoever wins will face either investigative journalist Alan Cohn or state Rep. Adam Hattersley, who are squaring off in an evenly matched Democratic primary of their own. As of July 29, Cohn had spent more than Hattersley ($459,000 to $406,600), but Hattersley had more cash on hand for the final three weeks ($236,000 to $130,000). Although the two don’t differ much on policy, Cohn has dinged Hattersley for being too moderate (he has some endorsements from moderate groups and didn’t register as a Democrat until 2018). Hattersley, though, has appropriated that argument to claim he’s the more electable candidate — which might be persuasive given that Trump carried this central Florida district by 10 points in 2016.
[newsletter-politics]
Two other Republican primaries in Florida are also on our radar because they’ll likely determine future members of Congress due to the GOP lean of the seats. First, the 19th Congressional District in southwest Florida is open following the retirement of Republican Rep. Francis Rooney, and there are four candidates in serious contention: businessman Casey Askar, state Rep. Byron Donalds, state House Majority Leader Dane Eagle and physician William Figlesthaler.
One of Figlesthaler’s ads aptly describes the contest as “the race to support President Trump,” and all the candidates are fighting for pole position. Figlesthaler says he’ll back Trump’s “America First agenda,” while Eagle argues his experience as a GOP leader makes him the best choice to stand with Trump and “fight for America.” Donalds emphasizes that he’s a “Trump-supporting, gun-owning, liberty-loving, pro-life, politically incorrect Black man.” And Askar proclaims that he’ll “always have the president’s back” in Trump’s battle against the media, bureaucrats and the “radical socialists.”
And as the race has heated up, things have gotten nasty. In one ad, Askar stresses that when he was 18, he signed up for the Marines, whereas Donalds was arrested for drug possession at 19 and Eagle got a DUI at 31. He’s also argued that Donalds lied to get a state job and opposed Trump in the past, attacks that got a “Mostly False” rating from PolitiFact. But Askar’s military service and educational background have been called into question, providing plenty of ammunition for his opponents. And outside groups have also dinged Askar for past contributions to Mitt Romney. They’ve also criticized Figlesthaler for giving money to former Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson (who lost in 2018) and not donating to Trump in the 2016 presidential race.
However, because Askar and Figlesthaler are largely self-funding their campaigns, they’ve dramatically outspent Donalds and Eagle. Askar has raised about $3.7 million (with $3 million from personal loans), while Figlesthaler has brought in a little over $2.5 million ($1.9 million self-funded). Conversely, Donalds has collected roughly $1.2 million and Eagle just about $741,000. However, Donalds has far and away the most outside help thanks to his endorsement from the Club for Growth. The group’s campaign arm has spent about $1.4 million boosting Donalds and another $1.1 million hitting the other three candidates (mainly Askar). And Conservative Outsider PAC, another Donalds ally, has also spent $459,000 attacking Eagle.
As the campaign draws to a close, though, it looks like anyone’s race. An early August survey from St. Pete Polls found the four candidates separated by just 6 points, with Donalds attracting 22 percent support, Figlesthaler 21 percent, Eagle 20 percent and Askar 16 percent.
Meanwhile, the 3rd Congressional District in north Florida also has a busy primary to replace retiring Republican Rep. Ted Yoho. The contest lacks a front-runner, but the most prominent contenders appear to be former Yoho staffer Kat Cammack, businessman Judson Sapp and physician James St. George.
The principal drama in the race has centered on Cammack, who has gained notoriety for running fowl-themed ads in which she calls her opponents and D.C. Republicans too “chicken” to stand up for conservative values. She’s played up her connections to Yoho, too, but those ties have recently come under scrutiny. In late June, Yoho’s son claimed Cammack had been fired as his father’s chief of staff and expressed frustration that Cammack made it sound like the congressman backed her. Following his son’s statement, Rep. Yoho stated that Cammack had been demoted to deputy chief of staff and reassigned to the district office in 2013 “for reasons not to be disclosed,” and later reiterated that he wasn’t endorsing anyone.
As for St. George and Sapp, they have also touted their conservative credentials, support for Trump and opposition to the political left. They’ve also brought more financial resources to the race than Cammack. As of July 29, St. George had raised about $922,000 ($600,000 from his own pocket) while Sapp, who won 24 percent in the 2018 primary against Yoho, had collected $770,000 ($500,000 self-funded). By comparison, Cammack had gathered about $492,000 in contributions with very little self-funding. But Cammack has benefited from the only significant outside spending in the race: $300,000 by the Sen. Rand Paul-aligned Protect Freedom PAC. (Paul has endorsed Cammack.)
And the only recent poll we have of the race suggests Cammack might come out on top with a plurality of the vote. Earlier this month, Meer Research found Cammack garnering 25 percent, Sapp 15 percent and St. George 13 percent. However, 20 percent were still undecided and seven other candidates also attracted support. Cammack doesn’t have an overwhelming lead, so it’s entirely possible one of the other contenders might still best her today.
Wyoming
With the retirement of Republican Sen. Mike Enzi, the GOP primary for Wyoming’s Senate seat is also in the cards, and the winner of this election is essentially guaranteed to become the state’s next senator, as Wyoming is arguably the most Republican state in the nation. Admittedly, there’s not much drama here as former Rep. Cynthia Lummis is a pretty clear front-runner despite the fact that there are 10 candidates on the GOP primary ballot.
But we mention this race because Lummis’s likely election could be meaningful for Republican gender diversity in the Senate. At present, just nine of the 26 women in the Senate are Republicans. Six of them are up for election this November, with four in real danger of defeat. So if things go poorly for the GOP, Lummis could be important to shoring up gender representation within the party’s caucus.
Things are busiest in Florida today, but there are intriguing reasons to watch what happens in Alaska and Wyoming, too. There aren’t many primary or runoff contests left in 2020, so enjoy primary season while it lasts.


fivethirthyeight--2020-08-17--What Went Down On The First Night Of The Democratic National Convention

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fivethirthyeight--2020-08-18--The Summer Of Playoffs

The Summer Of Playoffs

We begin with the first round of the NBA playoffs , since they started this week , and which teams and players seem to be in good shape .
While Neil is looking more prophetic , for the moment , for picking the Los Angeles team that he did , the Hot Takedown crew hasn ’ t lost faith in LeBron James quite yet .
In a weird way , the red-hot Portland Trail Blazers might be a good match for the Lakers in the first round , because as incredible as Damian Lillard and Jusuf Nurkić have been , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to defend against the likes of LeBron and Anthony Davis .
We don ’ t expect any upsets quite yet — though we did record this podcast before the Bucks lost to the Magic on Tuesday — but if we were put to it , maybe the Mavericks could give the Clippers some trouble .
Whether or not the Toronto Raptors adopt the Washington Nationals ’ approach of losing their best player and then quietly winning a championship , we ’ re excited that the NBA bubble has allowed us to talk about @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Next , we head to the Great White North and the NHL ’ s two bubbles .
There were a fair few upsets to make the Round of 16 , but now that we ’ re actually into the playoffs proper , we don ’ t expect the results to get too crazy .
Despite some armchair conspiracy theorists ’ hopes , the results of the NHL draft lottery were also fairly tame : The New York Rangers will likely nab top prospect Alexis Lafrenieré with their No .
1 pick , and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ teams that aren ’ t the New Jersey Devils will continue unabated .
The storylines that are grabbing us in the NHL playoffs are how well the New York Islanders seem to be doing , the chance that the Tampa Bay Lightning might be able to overcome their absolute humiliation in the postseason last year , and the many , many overtimes that games are going to .
Even with crowd sound being piped in by EA Sports , hockey ’ s playoff intensity remains reasonably high .
Finally , Neil introduces us @ @ @ @ @ @ @ who have played for every single team in a division .
NFL wide receiver Chris Hogan has now conquered the AFC East after signing on Sunday with the New York Jets , completing a doable but pretty uncommon feat across sports .
Although several players have gotten close , and several others seem like they ’ ve played for every single team in a league , there are surprisingly few who have made a clean sweep of a given division .
We think more trades should keep these completionists in mind — not @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , just because it ’ s fun .
What we ’ re looking at this week : • TV networks are scrambling to contain Carmelo Anthony .
• How LeBron ’ s postseason might go , based on his other top-seeded team .
• The New York Rangers lucked into the lottery after lucking out of the playoffs .

We begin with the first round of the NBA playoffs, since they started this week, and which teams and players seem to be in good shape. While Neil is looking more prophetic, for the moment, for picking the Los Angeles team that he did, the Hot Takedown crew hasn’t lost faith in LeBron James quite yet. In a weird way, the red-hot Portland Trail Blazers might be a good match for the Lakers in the first round, because as incredible as Damian Lillard and Jusuf Nurkić have been, they haven’t shown any ability to defend against the likes of LeBron and Anthony Davis. We don’t expect any upsets quite yet — though we did record this podcast before the Bucks lost to the Magic on Tuesday — but if we were put to it, maybe the Mavericks could give the Clippers some trouble. Whether or not the Toronto Raptors adopt the Washington Nationals’ approach of losing their best player and then quietly winning a championship, we’re excited that the NBA bubble has allowed us to talk about playoff basketball … and nothing else.
Next, we head to the Great White North and the NHL’s two bubbles. There were a fair few upsets to make the Round of 16, but now that we’re actually into the playoffs proper, we don’t expect the results to get too crazy. Despite some armchair conspiracy theorists’ hopes, the results of the NHL draft lottery were also fairly tame: The New York Rangers will likely nab top prospect Alexis Lafrenieré with their No. 1 pick, and Geoff’s resentment of all tri-state teams that aren’t the New Jersey Devils will continue unabated. The storylines that are grabbing us in the NHL playoffs are how well the New York Islanders seem to be doing, the chance that the Tampa Bay Lightning might be able to overcome their absolute humiliation in the postseason last year, and the many, many overtimes that games are going to. Even with crowd sound being piped in by EA Sports, hockey’s playoff intensity remains reasonably high.
Finally, Neil introduces us to a very elite club: players who have played for every single team in a division. NFL wide receiver Chris Hogan has now conquered the AFC East after signing on Sunday with the New York Jets, completing a doable but pretty uncommon feat across sports. Although several players have gotten close, and several others seem like they’ve played for every single team in a league, there are surprisingly few who have made a clean sweep of a given division. We think more trades should keep these completionists in mind — not because there’s any inherent advantage, just because it’s fun.
What we’re looking at this week:


fivethirthyeight--2020-08-18--Sanders And Kasich’s DNC Speeches Show Democrats Are Going After All Kinds Of Voters

The 2020 Democratic National Convention kicked off on Monday , and we will be recording daily podcasts to follow along @ @ @ @ @ the crew discusses speeches from former first lady Michelle Obama and Sen. Bernie Sanders and @ @ @ @ @ Night 1 of the DNC .

The 2020 Democratic National Convention kicked off on Monday, and we will be recording daily podcasts to follow along. In this episode, the crew discusses speeches from former first lady Michelle Obama and Sen. Bernie Sanders and gives their overall impressions from Night 1 of the DNC.


fivethirthyeight--2020-08-18--Carmelo Anthony’s On-Court Cussing Has TV Networks Playing Defense

With the NBA playoffs underway , TV networks and the viewing public are champing at the bit for one first-round series in particular : the Portland Trail Blazers vs. the Los Angeles Lakers , featuring Damian Lillard , the hottest player since the NBA restart , against LeBron James , the best basketball player of this generation .
The matchup , which kicks off tonight on TNT , will understandably be shown in primetime .
But while the showdown figures to be a boon for ratings , there ’ s a good chance it could also be a pain in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ least for those who handle the audio work for them .
With no crowd noise , networks have had to lean far more heavily on production tactics to ensure that foul language doesn ’ t slip through the cracks of the broadcasts .
That has included decreasing the volume of microphones on the court and around the rim , or muting the audio altogether for three seconds at a time .
Those people tasked with producing clean audio during telecasts are likely to get a workout this week : The Blazers have one @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on-court cussers in Carmelo Anthony .
An analysis of the Blazers ’ four TNT telecasts since the restart highlights the degree to which Anthony and his teammates put more pressure on TV producers to furiously scramble to find the dump button .
In those contests , ones Portland had to win to bolster its odds of reaching the playoffs , there were at least 57 instances in which the audio dropped out , either partly or completely , presumably to cover foul language .
While it ’ s nearly impossible to uncover who @ @ @ @ @ @ @ audio is generally being muted , we can still make a few inferences .
The TNT audio dropped once every three minutes — or 16 times per 48 minutes — when Anthony was on the court , up from once every five minutes ( 9.6 times per 48 minutes ) when Anthony was sidelined .
Perhaps most tellingly , when Anthony has been on the court , he has been directly involved on almost 28 percent of the plays on which the audio was dropped .
None of this would come as a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ accustomed to Anthony ’ s colorful language — especially when he ’ s going for boards and wants teammates to clear out so he can grab them .
When Blazers coach Terry Stotts was asked about Anthony ’ s vocal style on the glass and the extra goalie work it creates for networks , he responded by asking , “ You talking about FOH ?
” an acronym that means to get lost .
The coach said he didn ’ t see Anthony ’ s vocal nature — or the spirited element of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ saying Hall of Famer Gary Payton , whom he coached as an assistant in Seattle , was highly talkative as well .
We don ’ t want to suggest that Anthony and the Blazers have the foulest mouths , necessarily .
In fact , there ’ s reason to believe that at least some of the swearing in Portland games has actually come from opponents who find themselves at their wits ’ ends trying to defend Lillard , whose shooting range has essentially proved limitless .
( In at least three cases , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ made Lillard jumper . )
Making apples-to-apples comparisons to get a sense of where the Blazers stand relative to the rest of the league is complicated for a number of reasons .
For starters , TNT is seemingly far more liberal with its muting than ESPN .
( And because the Blazers were in hot pursuit for the last playoff spot out West , they were shown on national broadcasts far more often than most of the other teams in the bubble . )
Another challenge : Certain games — like the Mavs-Clippers @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 14 full mutes with the audio dropping completely for seconds at a time — featured much louder on-court audio , which made it easier to tell when the network was momentarily dropping sound to cover something .
Still , in a sample of four games on TNT that didn ’ t include Portland , we found that audio was dropped slightly less often — 47 times total , or about 12 times per 48 minutes — than during Blazers games .
Regardless of where Portland might rank as a club in on-court swearing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ about Anthony ’ s standing .
“ He leads the NBA in ‘ I got it , ’ ” TNT ’ s Ian Eagle said after Anthony shouted during a rebound , and his voice carried into one of the microphones attached to the backboard .
For his part , Anthony — who has redeemed himself in Portland after an abrupt exit from Houston , including by hitting a number of clutch triples late since the restart — said his bad-word boarding is mostly a way of hyping himself up .
“ For @ @ @ @ @ @ @ rebounded at a high level did it with a style , or some type of fashion , where they were loud with it , and they were commanding with it , ” Anthony said .
“ So that ’ s what I ’ m doing , just trying to bring some fun to it , and just letting people know that I have it.
” If Anthony is active on the glass tonight and during this first-round series , don ’ t be surprised if TNT is just as active in using the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ ve seen and heard thus far since the NBA restart , it would be par for the course .

With the NBA playoffs underway, TV networks and the viewing public are champing at the bit for one first-round series in particular: the Portland Trail Blazers vs. the Los Angeles Lakers, featuring Damian Lillard, the hottest player since the NBA restart, against LeBron James, the best basketball player of this generation.
The matchup, which kicks off tonight on TNT, will understandably be shown in primetime. But while the showdown figures to be a boon for ratings, there’s a good chance it could also be a pain in the neck for the networks — at least for those who handle the audio work for them.
With no crowd noise, networks have had to lean far more heavily on production tactics to ensure that foul language doesn’t slip through the cracks of the broadcasts. That has included decreasing the volume of microphones on the court and around the rim, or muting the audio altogether for three seconds at a time. Those people tasked with producing clean audio during telecasts are likely to get a workout this week: The Blazers have one of the NBA’s most well-established on-court cussers in Carmelo Anthony.
An analysis of the Blazers’ four TNT telecasts since the restart highlights the degree to which Anthony and his teammates put more pressure on TV producers to furiously scramble to find the dump button. In those contests, ones Portland had to win to bolster its odds of reaching the playoffs, there were at least 57 instances in which the audio dropped out, either partly or completely, presumably to cover foul language.
While it’s nearly impossible to uncover who exactly is doing the swearing since the audio is generally being muted, we can still make a few inferences. The TNT audio dropped once every three minutes — or 16 times per 48 minutes — when Anthony was on the court, up from once every five minutes (9.6 times per 48 minutes) when Anthony was sidelined. Perhaps most tellingly, when Anthony has been on the court, he has been directly involved on almost 28 percent of the plays on which the audio was dropped.
None of this would come as a surprise to Portland, which quickly grew accustomed to Anthony’s colorful language — especially when he’s going for boards and wants teammates to clear out so he can grab them.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kbm3cPAhAXI
When Blazers coach Terry Stotts was asked about Anthony’s vocal style on the glass and the extra goalie work it creates for networks, he responded by asking, “You talking about FOH?” an acronym that means to get lost. The coach said he didn’t see Anthony’s vocal nature — or the spirited element of it — as all that unusual, saying Hall of Famer Gary Payton, whom he coached as an assistant in Seattle, was highly talkative as well.
We don’t want to suggest that Anthony and the Blazers have the foulest mouths, necessarily. In fact, there’s reason to believe that at least some of the swearing in Portland games has actually come from opponents who find themselves at their wits’ ends trying to defend Lillard, whose shooting range has essentially proved limitless. (In at least three cases, TNT’s audio dropped after a made Lillard jumper.)
Making apples-to-apples comparisons to get a sense of where the Blazers stand relative to the rest of the league is complicated for a number of reasons. For starters, TNT is seemingly far more liberal with its muting than ESPN. (And because the Blazers were in hot pursuit for the last playoff spot out West, they were shown on national broadcasts far more often than most of the other teams in the bubble.) Another challenge: Certain games — like the Mavs-Clippers matchup on Aug. 6, which featured 14 full mutes with the audio dropping completely for seconds at a time — featured much louder on-court audio, which made it easier to tell when the network was momentarily dropping sound to cover something.
Still, in a sample of four games on TNT that didn’t include Portland, we found that audio was dropped slightly less often — 47 times total, or about 12 times per 48 minutes — than during Blazers games.
Regardless of where Portland might rank as a club in on-court swearing, there’s not much doubt about Anthony’s standing. “He leads the NBA in ‘I got it,’” TNT’s Ian Eagle said after Anthony shouted during a rebound, and his voice carried into one of the microphones attached to the backboard.
For his part, Anthony — who has redeemed himself in Portland after an abrupt exit from Houston, including by hitting a number of clutch triples late since the restart — said his bad-word boarding is mostly a way of hyping himself up.
“For a long time, those guys who rebounded at a high level did it with a style, or some type of fashion, where they were loud with it, and they were commanding with it,” Anthony said. “So that’s what I’m doing, just trying to bring some fun to it, and just letting people know that I have it.”
If Anthony is active on the glass tonight and during this first-round series, don’t be surprised if TNT is just as active in using the dump button. Based on what we’ve seen and heard thus far since the NBA restart, it would be par for the course.
Check out our latest NBA predictions.


fivethirthyeight--2020-08-18--What Can LeBron’s Previous Top-Seeded Teams Tell Us About This One?

LeBron James is , of course , no stranger to the postseason : He has missed the playoffs only three times in his 17 seasons in the NBA , including his disastrous inaugural season with the Los Angeles Lakers .
But though LeBron has been a fixture in the finals , he hasn ’ t usually been favored by seeding to get there .
Only five teams led by James have been No .
1 seeds in their respective conference : the 2008-09 and 2009-10 Cleveland Cavaliers , the 2012-13 Miami Heat , the 2015-16 Cavs and this season ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ role on each of those squads , and this season has been no different .
We ’ ve already examined how James has turned himself into one of the best point guards in the league this year , with a career high in assists per game .
But even outside of changing positions , he ’ s changed his game each time his team has grabbed a No .
1 seed .
His evolution this season led to production that looked more like his form on title-winning teams in 2013 and 2016 than @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that fell short .
Throughout his career , James ’ s usage rate has matched his superstar status .
But it has fluctuated slightly depending on his role with a team .
For example , during the 2008-09 and 2009-10 seasons , when the Cavaliers were at the top of the Eastern Conference , James ’ s average usage rate was just below 33 percent .
But with his top-seeded teams that won it all , in 2013 and 2016 , his usage rate was under 31 percent .
His rate was under @ @ @ @ @ @ @ at 30.8 percent .
The dip in his usage rate has also tracked with James ’ scoring and effective field-goal percentage .
When his usage was lower with his previous top-seeded teams , he posted a lower point-per-game average and shot a higher effective field-goal percentage .
Over his first two top-seeded years with the Cavaliers , he averaged more than 29 points per game with an effective field-goal percentage under 54 .
James averaged 25.3 points per game this season , and his effective field-goal percentage was right at 55 .
LeBron @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 60.3 ) of these top-seeded teams with the Heat in 2013 .
He attempted fewer three-pointers that season than he did in any of his other years finishing at the top of his conference — and the third-fewest of any season in his career .
This year , conversely , he has taken the most 3-pointers of his career , even in this shortened season , and he was on pace to set a career high in made 3-point shots .
James ’ s supporting cast has certainly been a factor in his @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and Cavaliers teams that won championships , James was surrounded by other stars and a bevy of lethal 3-point shooters .
Having such help allowed the team to ask less of him on the offensive end .
This year ’ s Lakers added talent all around James , and for the first time in his career , James is not his team ’ s leading scorer .
All-Star big man Anthony Davis leads the Lakers in scoring this year , averaging 26.1 points per game , and the duo has produced at an @ @ @ @ @ @ @ role has changed with each of his top-seeded teams , at least one thing hasn ’ t : the teams ’ offensive production .
Each LeBron-led team that ’ s finished at the top of its conference has also finished in the top half of the league in points per game and offensive rating .
Each team finished its season with an effective field-goal percentage ranking among the top five in the league , as well .
The Lakers ’ 113.4 points per game and 111.7 offensive rating both rank first among all @ @ @ @ @ @ @ In addition to their offensive production , all five teams performed well on the defensive end .
They each finished the regular season ranked among the top 10 in the NBA in defensive rating and opponent points in the paint .
The Lakers have struggled offensively in the bubble , concluding the seeding games ranked third-worst in offensive rating ( 104.5 ) and last in 3-point percentage ( 30.3 ) .
But despite the slow start in the bubble , the team has shown flashes of its capability with wins over the West @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Angeles Clippers and No .
3 seed Denver Nuggets .
If the top-seeded team can build on those wins and get back to its level of play from before the break , James could once again finish the season with a championship .

LeBron James is, of course, no stranger to the postseason: He has missed the playoffs only three times in his 17 seasons in the NBA, including his disastrous inaugural season with the Los Angeles Lakers. But though LeBron has been a fixture in the finals, he hasn’t usually been favored by seeding to get there. Only five teams led by James have been No. 1 seeds in their respective conference: the 2008-09 and 2009-10 Cleveland Cavaliers, the 2012-13 Miami Heat, the 2015-16 Cavs and this season’s Lakers.
James played a different role on each of those squads, and this season has been no different. We’ve already examined how James has turned himself into one of the best point guards in the league this year, with a career high in assists per game. But even outside of changing positions, he’s changed his game each time his team has grabbed a No. 1 seed. His evolution this season led to production that looked more like his form on title-winning teams in 2013 and 2016 than on the two No. 1 seeds that fell short.
LeBron’s usage rate was lower on his title teams LeBron James’s points and assists per game, 3-point attempts, effective field-goal percentage and usage rate on his five top-seeded playoff teams Season TEAM Won title? Points/ game Assists/ game 3-point atts. EFG% Usage% 2008-09 Cavaliers 28.4 7.2 384 53.0% 33.0% 2009-10 Cavaliers 29.7 8.6 387 54.5 32.8 2019-20 Lakers 25.3 10.2 425 55.0 30.8 2015-16 Cavaliers ✓ 25.3 6.8 282 55.1 30.5 2012-13 Heat ✓ 26.8 7.3 254 60.3 29.4 Regular season only. Source: NBA.com
Throughout his career, James’s usage rate has matched his superstar status. But it has fluctuated slightly depending on his role with a team. For example, during the 2008-09 and 2009-10 seasons, when the Cavaliers were at the top of the Eastern Conference, James’s average usage rate was just below 33 percent. But with his top-seeded teams that won it all, in 2013 and 2016, his usage rate was under 31 percent. His rate was under that mark this year, too, at 30.8 percent.
The dip in his usage rate has also tracked with James’ scoring and effective field-goal percentage. When his usage was lower with his previous top-seeded teams, he posted a lower point-per-game average and shot a higher effective field-goal percentage. Over his first two top-seeded years with the Cavaliers, he averaged more than 29 points per game with an effective field-goal percentage under 54. James averaged 25.3 points per game this season, and his effective field-goal percentage was right at 55.
LeBron posted his highest effective field-goal percentage (60.3) of these top-seeded teams with the Heat in 2013. He attempted fewer three-pointers that season than he did in any of his other years finishing at the top of his conference — and the third-fewest of any season in his career. This year, conversely, he has taken the most 3-pointers of his career, even in this shortened season, and he was on pace to set a career high in made 3-point shots.
James’s supporting cast has certainly been a factor in his usage rate. With both the Heat and Cavaliers teams that won championships, James was surrounded by other stars and a bevy of lethal 3-point shooters. Having such help allowed the team to ask less of him on the offensive end.
This year’s Lakers added talent all around James, and for the first time in his career, James is not his team’s leading scorer. All-Star big man Anthony Davis leads the Lakers in scoring this year, averaging 26.1 points per game, and the duo has produced at an all-time level.
While James’s role has changed with each of his top-seeded teams, at least one thing hasn’t: the teams’ offensive production. Each LeBron-led team that’s finished at the top of its conference has also finished in the top half of the league in points per game and offensive rating. Each team finished its season with an effective field-goal percentage ranking among the top five in the league, as well. The Lakers’ 113.4 points per game and 111.7 offensive rating both rank first among all of James’s top-seeded teams.
In addition to their offensive production, all five teams performed well on the defensive end. They each finished the regular season ranked among the top 10 in the NBA in defensive rating and opponent points in the paint.
The Lakers have struggled offensively in the bubble, concluding the seeding games ranked third-worst in offensive rating (104.5) and last in 3-point percentage (30.3). But despite the slow start in the bubble, the team has shown flashes of its capability with wins over the West’s No. 2 seed Los Angeles Clippers and No. 3 seed Denver Nuggets. If the top-seeded team can build on those wins and get back to its level of play from before the break, James could once again finish the season with a championship.
Check out our latest NBA predictions.


fivethirthyeight--2020-08-18--Politics Podcast: Michelle Obama Ripped President Trump On Night One Of The Convention

Late Monday , the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast crew reacted to the first night of the virtual Democratic National Convention .
@ @ @ @ @ criticized President Trump forcefully , and a variety of politicians called for unity behind Joe @ @ @ @ @ to the episode by clicking the “ play ” button in the audio player above @ @ @ @ @ iTunes , the ESPN App or your favorite podcast platform .
If you are new @ @ @ @ @ to listen .
The FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast is recorded Mondays and Thursdays .
Help new @ @ @ @ @ leaving us a rating and review on iTunes .
Have a comment , question or @ @ @ @ @ vs. bad polling ” ?
Get in touch by email , on Twitter or in @ @ @

Late Monday, the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast crew reacted to the first night of the virtual Democratic National Convention. Former First Lady Michelle Obama criticized President Trump forcefully, and a variety of politicians called for unity behind Joe Biden.
You can listen to the episode by clicking the “play” button in the audio player above or by downloading it in iTunes, the ESPN App or your favorite podcast platform. If you are new to podcasts, learn how to listen.
The FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast is recorded Mondays and Thursdays. Help new listeners discover the show by leaving us a rating and review on iTunes. Have a comment, question or suggestion for “good polling vs. bad polling”? Get in touch by email, on Twitter or in the comments.


fivethirthyeight--2020-08-17--DNC, Day 2: Live Updates And Analysis

DNC, Day 2: Live Updates And Analysis