fivethirthyeight--2020-09-16--A Canadian Teenager Is One Of The Fastest Soccer Players In The World

Alphonso Davies might not have enjoyed his 8 a.m. soccer practice runs as a youth alongside the North Saskatchewan River in his hometown of Edmonton , Canada .
But today , one of the fastest players in European club football can look back at those memories a bit more fondly .
“ It helped me a lot having to run for a while , ” Davies said .
From running up and down stairs and hills in Alberta as a preteen to hoisting trophies with one of the most prominent football clubs in the world , the 19-year-old is making @ @ @ @ @ @ @ wingback and one of the most promising Canadian soccer talents ever .
“ The Roadrunner ” had a banner 2019-20 season .
He helped Bayern Munich win its second-ever continental treble , winning a Bundesliga league championship , the DFB-Pokal German competition and the UEFA Champions League title with a victory over Paris Saint-Germain in August .
He ’ s a crucial component to this year ’ s Bayern team , which begins its season Friday against Schalke .
He even got fellow Canadian Drake to follow him on Instagram .
“ I @ @ @ @ @ @ @ trying to show that I ’ m able to play at this level , ” Davies said .
“ And me winning the league , me winning the Pokal and now the Champions League , it ’ s an amazing feeling for me .
Being so young , doing it so early in my career — it ’ s amazing .
But has it sunk in ?
I would say not yet , but it ’ s definitely getting there .
Still can ’ t believe all this is happening.
” Davies was @ @ @ @ @ @ @ season , scoring three goals and getting five assists in 29 appearances in the Bundesliga while winning nearly 57 percent of his duels ( aerial and ground ) and completing more than 87 percent of his passes in open play .
He added three more assists in Champions League play .
In June , Davies set a speed record as the fastest player in the Bundesliga since at least 2011 , attaining a top sprinting speed of 22.7 miles per hour during a match against Werder Bremen .
His speed is also faster @ @ @ @ @ @ @ this past season .
“ It ’ s a big part of my game , ” Davies said .
“ Being blessed with the speed I have is amazing .
And I ’ m happy that I can showcase it in most games to help out the team with my speed in attack and defense.
” And he does all of that while not looking out of place against Lionel Messi .
“ Looking up to him when you ’ re young and now playing against him , it was very nerve-wracking for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ especially when he would come on my side .
My heart would be beating faster and faster every time he gets the ball .
But I tried to stay calm.
” Before Davies was sharing the field with one of the world ’ s best , he had humble beginnings as a refugee .
Born in a Ghanaian refugee camp to Liberian parents who were fleeing a civil war , Davies immigrated to Canada with his family when he was 5 .
He took up soccer and played for youth clubs in Edmonton @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , as his coach .
“ At 8 , 9 years old , he was just running circles around all the other kids , ” Huoseh said .
“ I ’ ve seen a lot of boys that were very fast and quick and then as they got older their bodies changed and then they slowed down .
But he never did — he just got faster.
” Huoseh remembers training sessions up to five times a week with Davies and his teammates .
One portion saw the team run up a “ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Downs Family YMCA in north Edmonton after discussing tactics and playing scrimmages .
Davies and his mates would run up to the top of the hill and perform 20 situps and pushups before eventually running back down .
On weekends , the team would run up and down stairs along the city ’ s River Valley area .
Huoseh would challenge his players to record the fastest times possible in their runs before ending the session with a scrimmage and a visit to a nearby Subway for lunch .
“ Alphonso never missed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ” Huoseh said .
“ It was always important to be at training.
” “ Having a coach like him , it was good , ” Davies said .
“ He kept us in shape.
” Davies ’ s potential eventually caught the eye of the Major League Soccer club Vancouver Whitecaps FC , and he ascended to their senior side in 2016 .
Then-manager Carl Robinson remembers seeing Davies in a reserve match in which he took off from his own penalty area with the ball and dribbled past three players before @ @ @ @ @ @ @ me a lot of Ryan Giggs , ” Robinson said of the longtime Manchester United star , “ because Ryan Giggs was the only player that I knew that could run faster with the ball than without the ball.
” Robinson , along with his team ’ s sports science department , sought to improve Davies ’ s running technique during his time in Vancouver .
They focused on his feet positioning on sprints , having him start either on the ground or with his two feet on a line , as opposed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ foot in front of the other .
“ That ’ s not normal in football because you ’ re doing football-related movements .
You ’ re jumping for a header , you ’ re landing .
You ’ re turning , you ’ re twisting , so you don ’ t actually start in a sprinting position , ” Robinson said .
The manager thought the already gifted Davies was a good student in training .
“ You can ’ t coach natural speed , ” Robinson said .
“ But what you @ @ @ @ @ @ @ techniques .
You can coach sharpness within speeds , so that means how you start , how you push off and how you maintain your sprint speed by the technique that you use .
And you ’ re able to do it due to your fitness .
“ We knew that we could help with certain aspects within that , and we did .
He was fully committed to the work even though he knew he was the quickest player that we had .
He made a point of trying to win every @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on Major League Soccer training grounds , and they worked in real games as Davies constantly sprinted past opposing players .
Former teammate Kei Kamara remembers games in which Davies would “ effortlessly ” run around defenders in loops , or toy with them with the ball at his feet .
There was the night against D.C. United in 2018 when he scored a wonder goal in stoppage time .
“ I don ’ t think he even knows , sometimes , how fast he is , ” Kamara said .
“ In @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ] just go .
He can feel himself just glide by people.
” In the present , Davies says he doesn ’ t do “ that much ” with his running technique beyond speed bursts and speed ladders , or working out in the gym to “ keep his legs strong.
” Not that many other footballers could catch up to him , anyway .
“ I ’ m happy to have the speed that I have , especially in football nowadays , ” Davies said .
“ Players are getting faster quicker @ @ @ @ @ @ @ faster than all the players .
I ’ m just grateful to have the speed .
”

Alphonso Davies might not have enjoyed his 8 a.m. soccer practice runs as a youth alongside the North Saskatchewan River in his hometown of Edmonton, Canada. But today, one of the fastest players in European club football can look back at those memories a bit more fondly.
“It helped me a lot having to run for a while,” Davies said.
From running up and down stairs and hills in Alberta as a preteen to hoisting trophies with one of the most prominent football clubs in the world, the 19-year-old is making a name for himself as a talented wingback and one of the most promising Canadian soccer talents ever.
“The Roadrunner” had a banner 2019-20 season. He helped Bayern Munich win its second-ever continental treble, winning a Bundesliga league championship, the DFB-Pokal German competition and the UEFA Champions League title with a victory over Paris Saint-Germain in August. He’s a crucial component to this year’s Bayern team, which begins its season Friday against Schalke. He even got fellow Canadian Drake to follow him on Instagram.
“I was just trying to prove myself, trying to show that I’m able to play at this level,” Davies said. “And me winning the league, me winning the Pokal and now the Champions League, it’s an amazing feeling for me. Being so young, doing it so early in my career — it’s amazing. But has it sunk in? I would say not yet, but it’s definitely getting there. Still can’t believe all this is happening.”
Davies was a key player for Bayern this past season, scoring three goals and getting five assists in 29 appearances in the Bundesliga while winning nearly 57 percent of his duels (aerial and ground) and completing more than 87 percent of his passes in open play. He added three more assists in Champions League play.
Alphonso Davies has taken a big leap on a big stage Stats for Canadian Alphonso Davies, including expected goals (xG) and assists (xA), in the MLS and Bundesliga since 2018 Season Team Matches Starts Goals Assists xG xA 2019-20 Bayern Munich 29 24 3 5 2.1 3.6 2018-19 Bayern Munich 6 0 1 0 0.2 0.0 2018 Vancouver 31 27 8 9 5.5 6.1 Source: FBref.com
In June, Davies set a speed record as the fastest player in the Bundesliga since at least 2011, attaining a top sprinting speed of 22.7 miles per hour during a match against Werder Bremen. His speed is also faster than any recorded speed from La Liga this past season.
“It’s a big part of my game,” Davies said. “Being blessed with the speed I have is amazing. And I’m happy that I can showcase it in most games to help out the team with my speed in attack and defense.”
And he does all of that while not looking out of place against Lionel Messi.
“Looking up to him when you’re young and now playing against him, it was very nerve-wracking for me,” Davies said, “especially when he would come on my side. My heart would be beating faster and faster every time he gets the ball. But I tried to stay calm.”
Before Davies was sharing the field with one of the world’s best, he had humble beginnings as a refugee. Born in a Ghanaian refugee camp to Liberian parents who were fleeing a civil war, Davies immigrated to Canada with his family when he was 5. He took up soccer and played for youth clubs in Edmonton with Nick Huoseh, his future agent, as his coach.
“At 8, 9 years old, he was just running circles around all the other kids,” Huoseh said. “I’ve seen a lot of boys that were very fast and quick and then as they got older their bodies changed and then they slowed down. But he never did — he just got faster.”
Huoseh remembers training sessions up to five times a week with Davies and his teammates. One portion saw the team run up a “fairly steep” hill behind the Castle Downs Family YMCA in north Edmonton after discussing tactics and playing scrimmages. Davies and his mates would run up to the top of the hill and perform 20 situps and pushups before eventually running back down.
On weekends, the team would run up and down stairs along the city’s River Valley area. Huoseh would challenge his players to record the fastest times possible in their runs before ending the session with a scrimmage and a visit to a nearby Subway for lunch.
“Alphonso never missed a practice, never missed training,” Huoseh said. “It was always important to be at training.”
“Having a coach like him, it was good,” Davies said. “He kept us in shape.”
Davies’s potential eventually caught the eye of the Major League Soccer club Vancouver Whitecaps FC, and he ascended to their senior side in 2016. Then-manager Carl Robinson remembers seeing Davies in a reserve match in which he took off from his own penalty area with the ball and dribbled past three players before launching a cross.
“It reminded me a lot of Ryan Giggs,” Robinson said of the longtime Manchester United star, “because Ryan Giggs was the only player that I knew that could run faster with the ball than without the ball.”
Robinson, along with his team’s sports science department, sought to improve Davies’s running technique during his time in Vancouver. They focused on his feet positioning on sprints, having him start either on the ground or with his two feet on a line, as opposed to a natural sprinting position with one foot in front of the other.
“That’s not normal in football because you’re doing football-related movements. You’re jumping for a header, you’re landing. You’re turning, you’re twisting, so you don’t actually start in a sprinting position,” Robinson said.
The manager thought the already gifted Davies was a good student in training.
“You can’t coach natural speed,” Robinson said. “But what you can coach, you can coach running techniques. You can coach sharpness within speeds, so that means how you start, how you push off and how you maintain your sprint speed by the technique that you use. And you’re able to do it due to your fitness.
“We knew that we could help with certain aspects within that, and we did. He was fully committed to the work even though he knew he was the quickest player that we had. He made a point of trying to win every race.”
The lessons in practice worked on Major League Soccer training grounds, and they worked in real games as Davies constantly sprinted past opposing players.
Former teammate Kei Kamara remembers games in which Davies would “effortlessly” run around defenders in loops, or toy with them with the ball at his feet. There was the night against D.C. United in 2018 when he scored a wonder goal in stoppage time.
“I don’t think he even knows, sometimes, how fast he is,” Kamara said. “In games, we tell him [to] just go. He can feel himself just glide by people.”
In the present, Davies says he doesn’t do “that much” with his running technique beyond speed bursts and speed ladders, or working out in the gym to “keep his legs strong.”
Not that many other footballers could catch up to him, anyway.
“I’m happy to have the speed that I have, especially in football nowadays,” Davies said. “Players are getting faster quicker, thinking [they’re] faster than all the players. I’m just grateful to have the speed.”
Check out our latest club soccer predictions.


fivethirthyeight--2020-09-16--Trump Has Lost His Edge In TV Advertising

For months , President Trump ’ s campaign boasted that its campaign operation was a “ juggernaut ” and compared it to the powerful Death Star .
Nowhere was that more evident to the general public than on the television airwaves .
According to data from Kantar/Campaign Media Analysis Group , from early May through July 28 , 2020 , the Trump campaign and Republican outside groups spent an estimated $ 80.1 million to air 161,744 ads on local broadcast , national network and national cable TV for the presidential general election .
By contrast , Joe Biden ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ estimated $ 44.2 million and aired only 66,875 ads for the presidential general election during that period .
But as you can see in the chart below , the Republican Death Star stopped being fully armed and operational in late July — while Democrats began to step up their game .
From July 29 through Sept. 14 , Republican forces aired just 107,816 ads at an estimated cost of $ 71.5 million , while Democratic forces aired 183,341 ads for an estimated $ 107.1 million .
What happened in July ?
Trump appointed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , who was tasked with fixing the campaign ’ s cash flow problems and sudden fundraising woes .
For most of the year , Trump and the Republican National Committee had comfortably outraised Biden and the Democratic National Committee , but that advantage had evaporated by the end of July .
And in August , Bidenworld outraised Trumpworld $ 365 million to $ 210 million .
Accordingly , Stepien has reportedly been working to tighten the campaign ’ s belt — which has included cutting back on TV ads in several key states @ @ @ @ @ @ @ through Aug. 24 , Republicans outaired Democrats 20,904 ads to 18,548 in Arizona-based media markets .
But the Trump campaign went dark in the Grand Canyon State on Aug. 25 , and after that Democrats outaired Republicans 8,922 ads to 3,226 in the state ( all but two of the Republican ads were from outside groups ) .
It ’ s a similar story in Pennsylvania : From early May through July 29 , Republicans aired 28,438 ads to Democrats ’ 17,322 .
But from July 30 through Sept. 14 , Democrats out-advertised @ @ @ @ @ @ @ large part because the Trump campaign aired only two ads during those six weeks .
That should be especially alarming to Republicans , since the FiveThirtyEight model believes that Pennsylvania is the likeliest state to decide the 2020 election .
The Trump campaign also didn ’ t air a single commercial in a Michigan-based media market from July 23 through Sept. 7 .
Although the campaign is now back on the air , Michiganders saw 38,261 pro-Biden ads from early May through Sept. 14 and only 15,866 pro-Trump ads .
Trump is still @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , such as Florida , North Carolina and Wisconsin — but even in those states , Democrats have been airing more ads than Republicans since late July .
Here are the shifts in each major swing state — defined as the states with more than a 1 percent chance of being the Electoral College tipping point , per the FiveThirtyEight model .
In sum , these numbers look damning for Trump .
And they are indeed another sign that Trump ’ s campaign may be in trouble , especially considering he is the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ have a larger war chest at his disposal .
But it ’ s also important to remember that TV advertising isn ’ t the be-all and end-all for campaigns .
In fact , political scientists disagree about whether TV ads even have a significant effect on elections at all !
And the Trump campaign points to the fact that it is outspending Biden in other areas , such as field offices ( Trump has opened more than 280 , while Biden , due to the coronavirus pandemic , has opened none ) and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Sept. 5 , Trump spent $ 66.8 million on Facebook and Google ads while Biden spent $ 46.2 million ) .
And of course , there are still seven weeks left in the campaign — plenty of time for Trump to return to dominance on the airwaves .
Confidence Interval : Texas could go blue in 2020 | FiveThirtyEight

For months, President Trump’s campaign boasted that its campaign operation was a “juggernaut” and compared it to the powerful Death Star. Nowhere was that more evident to the general public than on the television airwaves. According to data from Kantar/Campaign Media Analysis Group, from early May through July 28, 2020, the Trump campaign and Republican outside groups spent an estimated $80.1 million to air 161,744 ads on local broadcast, national network and national cable TV for the presidential general election. By contrast, Joe Biden’s campaign and Democratic outside groups spent an estimated $44.2 million and aired only 66,875 ads for the presidential general election during that period.
But as you can see in the chart below, the Republican Death Star stopped being fully armed and operational in late July — while Democrats began to step up their game. From July 29 through Sept. 14, Republican forces aired just 107,816 ads at an estimated cost of $71.5 million, while Democratic forces aired 183,341 ads for an estimated $107.1 million.
What happened in July? Trump appointed a new campaign manager, Bill Stepien, who was tasked with fixing the campaign’s cash flow problems and sudden fundraising woes. For most of the year, Trump and the Republican National Committee had comfortably outraised Biden and the Democratic National Committee, but that advantage had evaporated by the end of July. And in August, Bidenworld outraised Trumpworld $365 million to $210 million.
Accordingly, Stepien has reportedly been working to tighten the campaign’s belt — which has included cutting back on TV ads in several key states. For example, from early May through Aug. 24, Republicans outaired Democrats 20,904 ads to 18,548 in Arizona-based media markets. But the Trump campaign went dark in the Grand Canyon State on Aug. 25, and after that Democrats outaired Republicans 8,922 ads to 3,226 in the state (all but two of the Republican ads were from outside groups).
It’s a similar story in Pennsylvania: From early May through July 29, Republicans aired 28,438 ads to Democrats’ 17,322. But from July 30 through Sept. 14, Democrats out-advertised Republicans 30,882 spots to 15,702 — in large part because the Trump campaign aired only two ads during those six weeks. That should be especially alarming to Republicans, since the FiveThirtyEight model believes that Pennsylvania is the likeliest state to decide the 2020 election.
The Trump campaign also didn’t air a single commercial in a Michigan-based media market from July 23 through Sept. 7. Although the campaign is now back on the air, Michiganders saw 38,261 pro-Biden ads from early May through Sept. 14 and only 15,866 pro-Trump ads.
Trump is still on the air in other crucial states, such as Florida, North Carolina and Wisconsin — but even in those states, Democrats have been airing more ads than Republicans since late July. Here are the shifts in each major swing state — defined as the states with more than a 1 percent chance of being the Electoral College tipping point, per the FiveThirtyEight model.
Democrats are now airing more swing-state ads How many ads each party aired for the presidential general election on broadcast TV in the states with the highest chance of deciding the 2020 election, from May 5 to July 28 vs. from July 29 to Sept. 14 May 5 – July 28 July 29 – Sept. 14 State Tipping Point Dem. ads GOP ads Dem. ads GOP ads Pennsylvania 31% chance 16,899 28,204 31,305 15,936 Florida 14 8,373 27,114 40,547 19,786 Wisconsin 10 13,150 17,817 24,400 17,701 Arizona 7 7,717 13,165 19,753 10,965 Michigan 6 15,486 10,043 22,775 5,823 Minnesota 5 0 1,814 3,621 3,345 North Carolina 4 4,303 19,339 21,603 16,248 Nevada 4 70 5,884 5,676 22 Colorado 3 0 49 30 1 Ohio 3 93 9,037 3,648 29 New Hampshire 2 13 0 8 0 Georgia 2 3 10,395 33 12,293 Texas 2 40 584 165 2 Virginia 1 0 0 16 0 “Tipping-point chance” is the chance that a given state will provide the decisive vote in the Electoral College. Tipping-point chances are as of Sept. 15 at 10 a.m. Eastern. Source: Kantar/Campaign Media Analysis Group
In sum, these numbers look damning for Trump. And they are indeed another sign that Trump’s campaign may be in trouble, especially considering he is the incumbent and, as such, should have a larger war chest at his disposal. But it’s also important to remember that TV advertising isn’t the be-all and end-all for campaigns. In fact, political scientists disagree about whether TV ads even have a significant effect on elections at all! And the Trump campaign points to the fact that it is outspending Biden in other areas, such as field offices (Trump has opened more than 280, while Biden, due to the coronavirus pandemic, has opened none) and digital advertising (from Aug. 1 through Sept. 5, Trump spent $66.8 million on Facebook and Google ads while Biden spent $46.2 million). And of course, there are still seven weeks left in the campaign — plenty of time for Trump to return to dominance on the airwaves.
Confidence Interval: Texas could go blue in 2020 | FiveThirtyEight


fivethirthyeight--2020-09-15--Reading The Right Amount Into The NFL’s Week 1

We start by reflecting on the first week of the 2020 NFL season .
Most teams — kickers aside — looked to be in shape despite the absence of a preseason , although some appear more dangerous than others .
The addition of DeAndre Hopkins is making the Arizona Cardinals very fun to watch , and a healthy Cam Newton is showing why the power run is so hard to defend against in New England .
On the flip side , Tom Brady continued his streak of throwing interceptions , and Carson Wentz had maybe the worst day of any @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the worst drop in terms of our Elo ratings .
There ’ s still a lot to learn about how every team is going to perform this season , but the entire Hot Takedown crew is united in hoping that Washington permanently adopts the clunky , quaint “ Football Team ” nickname .
It really is fun to say .
Next , FiveThirtyEight senior sportswriter Chris Herring joins to talk about what ’ s ahead for the Houston Rockets now that they ’ ve crashed out of the NBA playoffs .
The short @ @ @ @ @ @ @ have a ton of good options .
They went all in on winning this year with the addition of Russell Westbrook , whose inefficiency as a shooter undoes a lot of the statistically minded style of play that former coach Mike D ’ Antoni championed .
Chris doesn ’ t think a new coach alone will keep Houston in contention .
They don ’ t have a ton of room to maneuver , either , with the contracts they ’ re still on the hook for .
Unthinkable as it may seem , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to at least see what trading James Harden would get them .
Otherwise , they ’ re a bit stuck .
Finally , in the Rabbit Hole , Sara digs into what the WNBA ’ s playoff system would look like transposed onto a different league .
The WNBA ’ s setup heavily favors top seeds — who get two byes , as the Nos .
3 through 8 seeds battle it out in single-elimination matchups — maybe more than any other major sports league ’ s playoffs .
While this certainly feels @ @ @ @ @ @ @ sport like baseball , Sara thought it would be fun to see how the 2019 MLB postseason could have played out if the seeding really mattered .
That it led to the Minnesota Twins making the World Series is purely coincidental .
What we ’ re looking at this week : • How football teams , and “ Football Team , ” won in Week 1 .
• Why even a trade of James Harden should be on the table for the Houston Rockets .
• It ’ s win or go home @ @ @ @ @ @ @

We start by reflecting on the first week of the 2020 NFL season. Most teams — kickers aside — looked to be in shape despite the absence of a preseason, although some appear more dangerous than others. The addition of DeAndre Hopkins is making the Arizona Cardinals very fun to watch, and a healthy Cam Newton is showing why the power run is so hard to defend against in New England. On the flip side, Tom Brady continued his streak of throwing interceptions, and Carson Wentz had maybe the worst day of any quarterback; the Philadelphia Eagles certainly had the worst drop in terms of our Elo ratings. There’s still a lot to learn about how every team is going to perform this season, but the entire Hot Takedown crew is united in hoping that Washington permanently adopts the clunky, quaint “Football Team” nickname. It really is fun to say.
Next, FiveThirtyEight senior sportswriter Chris Herring joins to talk about what’s ahead for the Houston Rockets now that they’ve crashed out of the NBA playoffs. The short answer is that they don’t have a ton of good options. They went all in on winning this year with the addition of Russell Westbrook, whose inefficiency as a shooter undoes a lot of the statistically minded style of play that former coach Mike D’Antoni championed. Chris doesn’t think a new coach alone will keep Houston in contention. They don’t have a ton of room to maneuver, either, with the contracts they’re still on the hook for. Unthinkable as it may seem, now might the time for the Rockets to at least see what trading James Harden would get them. Otherwise, they’re a bit stuck.
Finally, in the Rabbit Hole, Sara digs into what the WNBA’s playoff system would look like transposed onto a different league. The WNBA’s setup heavily favors top seeds — who get two byes, as the Nos. 3 through 8 seeds battle it out in single-elimination matchups — maybe more than any other major sports league’s playoffs. While this certainly feels fairer for basketball than a more series-focused sport like baseball, Sara thought it would be fun to see how the 2019 MLB postseason could have played out if the seeding really mattered. That it led to the Minnesota Twins making the World Series is purely coincidental.
What we’re looking at this week:


fivethirthyeight--2020-09-15--The Miami Heat Act Like They’ve Been Here Before. They (Mostly) Haven’t.

Out of the five teams left standing in the 2020 NBA postseason — a list that includes such heavy hitters as the Los Angeles Lakers and Clippers — the most impressive of all has probably been the Miami Heat .
After knocking off the top-seeded Milwaukee Bucks , the Heat boast the highest winning percentage of any team this postseason ( 88.9 percent ) along with the best RAPTOR rating ( +14.9 ) — and they ’ ve gained the most points of Elo rating during the playoffs of any team : The Heat were good enough in the regular @ @ @ @ @ @ @ weren ’ t supposed to be anywhere near this good in the playoffs — particularly given how they were constructed by team president Pat Riley .
Contrary to the accepted narrative about how to build a championship contender , the Heat have gotten to this stage with historically limited playoff experience and an unusually deep ensemble cast of contributors around star Jimmy Butler .
To the former point , Miami enters the conference finals with only seven players on its roster who had any postseason experience before 2020 , the fewest of all @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Lakers and Clippers all feature 10 or more players who have played in the playoffs at least once before .
In fact , among conference finals teams from the past two decades , only two featured fewer players on their postseason roster who had any previous postseason experience — the 2002 Boston Celtics and the 2007 Utah Jazz : The ’ 07 Jazz were led by the 1-2 punch of 22-year-old point guard Deron Williams and 25-year-old power forward Carlos Boozer , neither of whom had played in the playoffs before that season @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on hand to maintain a steady example for the young guys , though .
Center Mehmet Okur had participated in two deep playoff runs for the Detroit Pistons , while guard Derek Fisher had played 117 previous postseason games for the Los Angeles Lakers during their Shaq-Kobe dynasty era .
The ’ 02 Celtics didn ’ t even have that much experience to rely on : Only one player on the entire roster ( Rodney Rogers ) had even 30 previous games of postseason experience , and four of the top five Celtics @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Pierce , Eric Williams and Tony Battie — had zero playoff experience .
Of course , it bears mentioning that relatively few of the teams on the list above actually punched a ticket to the NBA Finals .
For instance , the Jazz were ousted in five games by the eventual champion San Antonio Spurs , while the Celtics lost an ugly six-game affair against the New Jersey Nets .
This makes sense — our previous research shows that playoff experience matters a lot in the NBA .
But it also underscores the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ trying to accomplish in bucking the trend of a deep playoff run fueled by playoff-tested vets .
The Heat ’ s contributions during the playoffs have also come from atypical sources .
According to RAPTOR wins above replacement ( WAR ) , Butler was Miami ’ s best player during the regular season ( with 8.8 WAR ) , and he ’ s still been very productive in the playoffs so far ( 1.2 WAR in nine games ) .
But his Heat teammates have also given him a tremendous amount of support @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Miami ’ s total value this postseason has been generated by players other than Butler , headlined by guard Goran Dragić ( 1.7 WAR ) , center Bam Adebayo ( 1.1 ) and forward Jae Crowder ( 0.9 ) .
Among conference finals teams with a clear-cut No .
1 star since 1984 , nobody else has gotten as large a share of their playoff production from their supporting cast as these Heat have : The Heat ’ s conference-finals opponents , the Boston Celtics , aren ’ t far off , in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ have given star Jayson Tatum .
Just like Butler , Tatum is second on his own team in postseason WAR , trailing point guard Kemba Walker .
For Miami , these two team-building themes kind of run together : The inexperienced players are also the ones being asked to carry more of the load .
Aside from Andre Iguodala — who played 145 previous playoff games with the Sixers , Nuggets and ( most notably ) Warriors over the years — Butler had the most previous playoff experience ( 55 games ) of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ postseason .
And Butler has had a hand in just about everything good the Heat have done over the past month .
But by also relying so heavily on supporting players with little to no playoff pedigree , coach Erik Spoelstra is showing the trust he has in Miami ’ s entire roster — not just its undisputed best player .
The play from Miami ’ s youth has proven that Butler and Spoelstra ’ s trust was not misplaced .
Adebayo , Tyler Herro and Duncan Robinson are among the six Heat @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
The trio ’ s combined 41.5 points per game is over a third of Miami ’ s scoring average of 112.1 .
After establishing themselves as legitimate shooters during the regular season , Herro and Robinson have both carried their hot shooting into the postseason , particularly from behind the arc .
Herro is shooting 40 percent and Robinson is shooting 39 percent on 3-point shots .
Robinson ranks in the top five among all sophomores in the playoffs in offensive rating ( 112.9 ) , effective field-goal percentage ( 60.9 ) @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Herro , the rookie first-round draft pick , is one of only two first-year performers who has scored over 100 points in the playoffs , and his 41.3 field-goal percentage ranks third among rookies who have attempted at least five shots per game this postseason .
He ’ s also averaged the most minutes per game ( 32.3 ) of all rookies in these playoffs , as well .
Meanwhile , Adebayo , a 2019-20 second team All-Defensive selection and runner-up for Most Improved Player , is the team ’ s third @ @ @ @ @ @ @ points per game and has anchored the team ’ s defense in the low post .
He also leads the team in rebounds ( 11.7 ) and assists per game ( 4.8 ) this postseason .
In an interview with ESPN ’ s Rachel Nichols before the start of the playoffs , Butler said he thought the Heat had what it took to win the championship .
And throughout the postseason , his confidence hasn ’ t wavered at all .
Will he be right ?
If Miami is able to beat the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , would be an upset , according to our model ) , it would represent a pretty unprecedented triumph for a team that has broken many of the normal rules of championship roster construction .
Simply put , teams like the 2019-20 Heat — with limited playoff experience and inordinate depth — aren ’ t supposed to vie for NBA titles .
Leave it to Riley , who wrote many of those rules while winning nine rings as a player , head coach and executive , to find a way to defy them @ @ @ @ @ @ @ yet .

Out of the five teams left standing in the 2020 NBA postseason — a list that includes such heavy hitters as the Los Angeles Lakers and Clippers — the most impressive of all has probably been the Miami Heat. After knocking off the top-seeded Milwaukee Bucks, the Heat boast the highest winning percentage of any team this postseason (88.9 percent) along with the best RAPTOR rating (+14.9) — and they’ve gained the most points of Elo rating during the playoffs of any team:
The Heat are the playoffs’ most impressive team Best 2020 NBA playoff teams, according to FiveThirtyEight’s postseason RAPTOR efficiency ratings and Elo rating gains Best RAPTOR Ratings Most Improved Elo Rk Team Off. Def. Tot. Rk Team Elo Gain* 1 MIA +9.0 +5.9 +14.9 1 MIA 1639 +82 2 BOS +5.5 +8.4 +14.0 2 BOS 1710 63 3 LAL +5.2 +7.0 +12.2 3 LAL 1660 49 4 LAC +6.4 +4.6 +11.0 4 DEN 1570 19 5 UTA +11.3 -2.2 +9.1 5 HOU 1553 11 *Gains relative to the end of the regular season. Source: NBA Advanced Stats
The Heat were good enough in the regular season to finish 44-29. But they weren’t supposed to be anywhere near this good in the playoffs — particularly given how they were constructed by team president Pat Riley. Contrary to the accepted narrative about how to build a championship contender, the Heat have gotten to this stage with historically limited playoff experience and an unusually deep ensemble cast of contributors around star Jimmy Butler.
To the former point, Miami enters the conference finals with only seven players on its roster who had any postseason experience before 2020, the fewest of all the remaining teams. The Celtics, Lakers and Clippers all feature 10 or more players who have played in the playoffs at least once before.
In fact, among conference finals teams from the past two decades, only two featured fewer players on their postseason roster who had any previous postseason experience — the 2002 Boston Celtics and the 2007 Utah Jazz:
The Heat are rolling with little playoff experience NBA conference finalists with the fewest number of players* who had any previous playoff experience, 2000-2020 Players on team with… Season Team Playoff Experience No Playoff Experience Prev. Playoff WAR** Went to Finals? 2002 BOS 4 7 2.9 2007 UTA 6 7 9.5 2020 MIA 7 5 27.0 2002 NJN 8 4 3.4 ✓ 2018 BOS 8 4 9.4 2015 HOU 8 4 36.8 2005 PHO 8 2 8.3 2016 OKC 9 5 34.4 2015 CLE 9 5 63.2 ✓ 2010 PHO 9 4 21.1 2013 MEM 9 4 23.5 2018 CLE 9 4 90.8 ✓ 2003 DET 9 3 9.3 2008 BOS 9 3 36.9 ✓ 2002 SAC 9 2 11.7 *Players who played at least one playoff game for the team.
**Total previous career RAPTOR wins above replacement (WAR) for all players on the postseason roster. Sources: NBA Advanced Stats, Basketball-Reference.com
The ’07 Jazz were led by the 1-2 punch of 22-year-old point guard Deron Williams and 25-year-old power forward Carlos Boozer, neither of whom had played in the playoffs before that season. They did have a few veterans on hand to maintain a steady example for the young guys, though. Center Mehmet Okur had participated in two deep playoff runs for the Detroit Pistons, while guard Derek Fisher had played 117 previous postseason games for the Los Angeles Lakers during their Shaq-Kobe dynasty era. The ’02 Celtics didn’t even have that much experience to rely on: Only one player on the entire roster (Rodney Rogers) had even 30 previous games of postseason experience, and four of the top five Celtics in minutes — Antoine Walker, Paul Pierce, Eric Williams and Tony Battie — had zero playoff experience.
Of course, it bears mentioning that relatively few of the teams on the list above actually punched a ticket to the NBA Finals. For instance, the Jazz were ousted in five games by the eventual champion San Antonio Spurs, while the Celtics lost an ugly six-game affair against the New Jersey Nets. This makes sense — our previous research shows that playoff experience matters a lot in the NBA. But it also underscores the unique nature of what the Heat are trying to accomplish in bucking the trend of a deep playoff run fueled by playoff-tested vets.
The Heat’s contributions during the playoffs have also come from atypical sources. According to RAPTOR wins above replacement (WAR), Butler was Miami’s best player during the regular season (with 8.8 WAR), and he’s still been very productive in the playoffs so far (1.2 WAR in nine games). But his Heat teammates have also given him a tremendous amount of support. By WAR, 83.8 percent of Miami’s total value this postseason has been generated by players other than Butler, headlined by guard Goran Dragić (1.7 WAR), center Bam Adebayo (1.1) and forward Jae Crowder (0.9). Among conference finals teams with a clear-cut No. 1 star since 1984, nobody else has gotten as large a share of their playoff production from their supporting cast as these Heat have:
The Heat have gotten a lot from the Other Guys For NBA conference finalists, largest share of team RAPTOR wins above replacement (WAR) from players other than their top star*, 1984-2020 WAR by supporting Cast Season Team Star Player* Playoff WAR Total Share of Team 2020 MIA SF Jimmy Butler 1.2 6.2 83.8% 2014 SAS SF Kawhi Leonard 3.5 15.8 81.9 2008 DET PG Chauncey Billups 2.0 8.9 81.4 2019 POR PG Damian Lillard 1.7 7.2 81.3 2016 GSW PG Stephen Curry 3.0 12.6 80.7 2017 BOS PG Isaiah Thomas 1.2 5.0 80.3 2010 PHO PG Steve Nash 2.2 8.5 79.6 2010 ORL C Dwight Howard 2.3 8.8 79.6 2008 SAS SG Manu Ginobili 2.1 7.9 79.0 2020 BOS PF Jayson Tatum 2.0 6.8 77.3 1985 PHI PG Maurice Cheeks 1.7 5.8 77.2 1988 DAL PG Derek Harper 1.9 6.5 77.1 2010 BOS PG Rajon Rondo 3.6 11.9 76.8 1998 UTA PF Karl Malone 2.9 9.4 76.4 1998 IND SG Reggie Miller 2.5 8.0 76.3 *Star status is based on the player who led the team in regular-season WAR. List excludes teams without a clear-cut No. 1 regular-season player (who led the team by at least 2 WAR). Source: NBA Advanced Stats, Basketball-Reference.com
The Heat’s conference-finals opponents, the Boston Celtics, aren’t far off, in terms of the support their surrounding players have given star Jayson Tatum. Just like Butler, Tatum is second on his own team in postseason WAR, trailing point guard Kemba Walker.
For Miami, these two team-building themes kind of run together: The inexperienced players are also the ones being asked to carry more of the load. Aside from Andre Iguodala — who played 145 previous playoff games with the Sixers, Nuggets and (most notably) Warriors over the years — Butler had the most previous playoff experience (55 games) of any Miami player going into the 2020 postseason. And Butler has had a hand in just about everything good the Heat have done over the past month. But by also relying so heavily on supporting players with little to no playoff pedigree, coach Erik Spoelstra is showing the trust he has in Miami’s entire roster — not just its undisputed best player.
The play from Miami’s youth has proven that Butler and Spoelstra’s trust was not misplaced. Adebayo, Tyler Herro and Duncan Robinson are among the six Heat players with double-digit scoring averages this postseason. The trio’s combined 41.5 points per game is over a third of Miami’s scoring average of 112.1.
After establishing themselves as legitimate shooters during the regular season, Herro and Robinson have both carried their hot shooting into the postseason, particularly from behind the arc. Herro is shooting 40 percent and Robinson is shooting 39 percent on 3-point shots. Robinson ranks in the top five among all sophomores in the playoffs in offensive rating (112.9), effective field-goal percentage (60.9) and true shooting percentage (63.2).
Herro, the rookie first-round draft pick, is one of only two first-year performers who has scored over 100 points in the playoffs, and his 41.3 field-goal percentage ranks third among rookies who have attempted at least five shots per game this postseason. He’s also averaged the most minutes per game (32.3) of all rookies in these playoffs, as well.
Meanwhile, Adebayo, a 2019-20 second team All-Defensive selection and runner-up for Most Improved Player, is the team’s third leading scorer in the playoffs with 16.2 points per game and has anchored the team’s defense in the low post. He also leads the team in rebounds (11.7) and assists per game (4.8) this postseason.
In an interview with ESPN’s Rachel Nichols before the start of the playoffs, Butler said he thought the Heat had what it took to win the championship. And throughout the postseason, his confidence hasn’t wavered at all.
Will he be right? If Miami is able to beat the Celtics (which, to be fair, would be an upset, according to our model), it would represent a pretty unprecedented triumph for a team that has broken many of the normal rules of championship roster construction. Simply put, teams like the 2019-20 Heat — with limited playoff experience and inordinate depth — aren’t supposed to vie for NBA titles. Leave it to Riley, who wrote many of those rules while winning nine rings as a player, head coach and executive, to find a way to defy them with one of his most fascinating teams yet.
Check out our latest NBA predictions.


fivethirthyeight--2020-09-15--Why Some Latino Voters Are Backing Trump

In this week ’ s FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast , the crew talks to Carlos Odio , the co-founder of Equis @ @ @ @ @ among Latino voters .
They also discuss whether polls in the Midwest have corrected their @ @ @ @ @ matter .

In this week’s FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the crew talks to Carlos Odio, the co-founder of Equis Research, about political trends among Latino voters. They also discuss whether polls in the Midwest have corrected their biases and whether scandals still matter.


fivethirthyeight--2020-09-15--It’s Win Or Go Home This Week In The WNBA Playoffs

After a laser-fast WNBA regular season , the 2020 playoffs have arrived .
The stakes are high , and almost cruel , this week : single-elimination doubleheaders Tuesday and Thursday ahead of the best-of-five semifinal series , which begin this weekend .
On Tuesday night , the sixth-seeded Chicago Sky face the seventh-seeded Connecticut Sun .
Then the five seed , the Phoenix Mercury , take on the eight seed , the Washington Mystics .
The lower-seeded survivor of that matchup takes on the three seed , the Los Angeles Sparks , on Thursday , while the higher-seeded Tuesday winner @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Lynx .
From there , the lower-seeded Thursday winner will head into a five-game series against the top-seeded Las Vegas Aces , while the higher-seeded Thursday winner takes on the second-seeded Seattle Storm .
Both of those begin Sunday .
The Chicago Sky feature the finest point guard of this generation , and possibly any generation , in Courtney Vandersloot , author of the three highest single-season assist percentages in WNBA history .
The Sky have a steller backcourt of Sloot and her wife , sharpshooting Allie Quigley , plus they ’ ve @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Copper and underrated big Cheyenne Parker .
The team presents plenty of matchup problems for opponents , even with Diamond DeShields missing most of the season after a slow start due to an injured knee .
The concern with the Sky , especially as the season progressed , is at the defensive end .
In July , their defensive rating was 97.2 .
In August , that jumped to 101.9 .
In September ?
108.2 .
That the September number came with a 1-4 finish — the lone win over non-playoff Dallas — @ @ @ @ @ @ @ trajectory of the Sun , meanwhile , is the opposite of Chicago ’ s journey .
Curt Miller ’ s team , dramatically different from the Jonquel Jones-led WNBA finalists of 2019 , began the season 0-5 with an offensive rating of just 90.6 .
But since that ugly beginning , DeWanna Bonner ’ s one-woman show has become an ensemble piece , with the team ’ s offensive rating jumping to 103 amid a 10-7 finish .
Alyssa Thomas finished with her customary efficiency with circus shots around the rim , hitting @ @ @ @ @ @ @ defensive points per possession easily led the league , per Synergy .
Bri Jones contributed vital rebounding and finishing as starting center , Natisha Hiedeman ’ s work as backup point guard helped keep starter Jasmine Thomas fresh , and the Sun have found an equilibrium that makes them scary .
In the other Tuesday opener , the Mystics represent the survivor of a spirited , three-team fight for the eight seed with Atlanta and Dallas that was decided on the final day of the regular season .
They ’ ve done it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , LaToya Sanders or Tina Charles , and that ’ s thanks in large part to Myisha Hines-Allen ’ s remarkable campaign .
She grabbed 31 percent of the available defensive rebounds , served as secondary facilitator and defended a wide variety of opposing players , finishing with the 13th-most win shares in the league .
And over the final four games of the season — a 4-0 finish that catapulted D.C. into the playoffs — no team defended better than the Mystics did .
For their troubles , they ’ ll get @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the amazing twin backcourt performances of Skylar Diggins-Smith and Diana Taurasi into serious title contention .
Diggins-Smith is at another level offensively this season , quite a statement for a four-time All-Star entering this campaign .
Even with a slow start as she familiarized herself with a new system after the Mercury acquired her from the Dallas Wings last offseason , Diggins-Smith managed to upgrade her shooting percentage : She went from 40.3 percent overall and 29.7 from three in 2018 , before she gave birth to her son in 2019 , to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 2020 .
That was good for an effective field-goal percentage of .560 , third among the 29 WNBA players with at least 200 field goal attempts in 2020 .
She ’ s somehow entirely herself , at age 38 , with no discernible difference in any of her key statistical categories , carrying the offensive load and distributing , forcing teams to figure out how to defend both her and Diggins-Smith — bringing to mind her old running days with Cappie Pondexter .
( Those two won a couple of titles , by @ @ @ @ @ @ @ winners of these two games are the Lynx and Sparks , two teams that had designs on top-two seed finishes into the final week .
If Minnesota looked smart for drafting Napheesa Collier sixth overall when she won Rookie of the Year in 2019 , it looks extra-smart in 2020 , as Collier improved in virtually every category on her first-year campaign and finished fourth in the league in win shares .
Her all-around game was supplemented by the fine rookie-season work of former University of Connecticut teammate Crystal Dangerfield , who may @ @ @ @ @ @ @ overall in the 2020 draft .
The Lynx finished strong offensively — with the best offensive rating of any team over the last 12 games of the season — and did that without the best center in league history , Sylvia Fowles , who is expected back for the playoffs from her calf injury .
As for the Sparks , it is fair to wonder whether a different call on this final play — a game-winner by Seattle ’ s Jewell Loyd where it appeared Loyd was out of bounds — is the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ game on Thursday and getting into the top two , with the double bye .
Nevertheless , Loyd made the huge shot , it counted , and so the Sparks , for all their excellence , play a one-and-done , thanks to a system that doesn ’ t really reward the Nos .
3 and 4seeds .
That said , beating the Sparks will not be easy .
Candace Parker just posted a vintage Parker season , with an assist percentage of 24.9 , a defensive rebounding rate second in the WNBA and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Nneka Ogwumike provided her typical high-end efficiency and defensive versatility , and Chelsea Gray rebounded from a shaky start to return to the elite level of scoring point guards , averaging 15.9 points per game and shooting 47.6 percent over her final 11 games .
The Sparks have more players who can beat you than any other team , and their role players — like pogo-stick-with-a-jump-shot Brittney Sykes and ageless Seimone Augustus — know precisely what play is necessary in a key moment .
If that all sounds daunting , it is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ advance to Sunday ?
Breanna Stewart and Sue Bird with the Storm and A ’ ja Wilson and Dearica Hamby of the Aces will be waiting , fully rested .

After a laser-fast WNBA regular season, the 2020 playoffs have arrived. The stakes are high, and almost cruel, this week: single-elimination doubleheaders Tuesday and Thursday ahead of the best-of-five semifinal series, which begin this weekend.
On Tuesday night, the sixth-seeded Chicago Sky face the seventh-seeded Connecticut Sun. Then the five seed, the Phoenix Mercury, take on the eight seed, the Washington Mystics. The lower-seeded survivor of that matchup takes on the three seed, the Los Angeles Sparks, on Thursday, while the higher-seeded Tuesday winner faces the four seed, the Minnesota Lynx.
From there, the lower-seeded Thursday winner will head into a five-game series against the top-seeded Las Vegas Aces, while the higher-seeded Thursday winner takes on the second-seeded Seattle Storm. Both of those begin Sunday.
Let’s examine the gauntlet ahead.
The Chicago Sky feature the finest point guard of this generation, and possibly any generation, in Courtney Vandersloot, author of the three highest single-season assist percentages in WNBA history. The Sky have a steller backcourt of Sloot and her wife, sharpshooting Allie Quigley, plus they’ve gotten strong seasons from emerging wing Kahleah Copper and underrated big Cheyenne Parker. The team presents plenty of matchup problems for opponents, even with Diamond DeShields missing most of the season after a slow start due to an injured knee.
The concern with the Sky, especially as the season progressed, is at the defensive end. In July, their defensive rating was 97.2. In August, that jumped to 101.9. In September? 108.2. That the September number came with a 1-4 finish — the lone win over non-playoff Dallas — should not be a surprise.
The trajectory of the Sun, meanwhile, is the opposite of Chicago’s journey. Curt Miller’s team, dramatically different from the Jonquel Jones-led WNBA finalists of 2019, began the season 0-5 with an offensive rating of just 90.6. But since that ugly beginning, DeWanna Bonner’s one-woman show has become an ensemble piece, with the team’s offensive rating jumping to 103 amid a 10-7 finish. Alyssa Thomas finished with her customary efficiency with circus shots around the rim, hitting 50.2 percent of 2-pointers, while her defensive points per possession easily led the league, per Synergy. Bri Jones contributed vital rebounding and finishing as starting center, Natisha Hiedeman’s work as backup point guard helped keep starter Jasmine Thomas fresh, and the Sun have found an equilibrium that makes them scary.
In the other Tuesday opener, the Mystics represent the survivor of a spirited, three-team fight for the eight seed with Atlanta and Dallas that was decided on the final day of the regular season. They’ve done it without Elena Delle Donne, Natasha Cloud, LaToya Sanders or Tina Charles, and that’s thanks in large part to Myisha Hines-Allen’s remarkable campaign. She grabbed 31 percent of the available defensive rebounds, served as secondary facilitator and defended a wide variety of opposing players, finishing with the 13th-most win shares in the league. And over the final four games of the season — a 4-0 finish that catapulted D.C. into the playoffs — no team defended better than the Mystics did.
For their troubles, they’ll get the Phoenix Mercury, who are riding the amazing twin backcourt performances of Skylar Diggins-Smith and Diana Taurasi into serious title contention. Diggins-Smith is at another level offensively this season, quite a statement for a four-time All-Star entering this campaign. Even with a slow start as she familiarized herself with a new system after the Mercury acquired her from the Dallas Wings last offseason, Diggins-Smith managed to upgrade her shooting percentage: She went from 40.3 percent overall and 29.7 from three in 2018, before she gave birth to her son in 2019, to 47.4 and 39.7, respectively, in 2020. That was good for an effective field-goal percentage of .560, third among the 29 WNBA players with at least 200 field goal attempts in 2020.
As for Taurasi?
Very important 2020 WNBA playoff stat: Since Diana Taurasi told a ref "I will see you in the lobby later," the Mercury have gone 7-2 and Taurasi has shot 39.3% from 25+ feet. Up until that point, the Mercury had gone 6-7 and Taurasi had shot 22% from 25+ feet. pic.twitter.com/1vmNDIooiP — Chantel Jennings (@ChantelJennings) September 14, 2020
She’s somehow entirely herself, at age 38, with no discernible difference in any of her key statistical categories, carrying the offensive load and distributing, forcing teams to figure out how to defend both her and Diggins-Smith — bringing to mind her old running days with Cappie Pondexter. (Those two won a couple of titles, by the way.)
Waiting for the winners of these two games are the Lynx and Sparks, two teams that had designs on top-two seed finishes into the final week.
If Minnesota looked smart for drafting Napheesa Collier sixth overall when she won Rookie of the Year in 2019, it looks extra-smart in 2020, as Collier improved in virtually every category on her first-year campaign and finished fourth in the league in win shares. Her all-around game was supplemented by the fine rookie-season work of former University of Connecticut teammate Crystal Dangerfield, who may win ROY honors despite falling to 16th overall in the 2020 draft. The Lynx finished strong offensively — with the best offensive rating of any team over the last 12 games of the season — and did that without the best center in league history, Sylvia Fowles, who is expected back for the playoffs from her calf injury.
As for the Sparks, it is fair to wonder whether a different call on this final play — a game-winner by Seattle’s Jewell Loyd where it appeared Loyd was out of bounds — is the difference between the Sparks playing an elimination game on Thursday and getting into the top two, with the double bye.
Jewel Lloyd stepped out of bounds!! This shot should have been overruled, come on! Stop ruining great competition, this game was one for the ages! @wnba @LASparks @seattlestorm pic.twitter.com/xFtTBHqAdX — Anna Petrakova (@PetrARuLove) September 5, 2020
Nevertheless, Loyd made the huge shot, it counted, and so the Sparks, for all their excellence, play a one-and-done, thanks to a system that doesn’t really reward the Nos. 3 and 4seeds. That said, beating the Sparks will not be easy. Candace Parker just posted a vintage Parker season, with an assist percentage of 24.9, a defensive rebounding rate second in the WNBA and her best true shooting percentage since 2011. Nneka Ogwumike provided her typical high-end efficiency and defensive versatility, and Chelsea Gray rebounded from a shaky start to return to the elite level of scoring point guards, averaging 15.9 points per game and shooting 47.6 percent over her final 11 games. The Sparks have more players who can beat you than any other team, and their role players — like pogo-stick-with-a-jump-shot Brittney Sykes and ageless Seimone Augustus — know precisely what play is necessary in a key moment.
If that all sounds daunting, it is. And for the two teams who advance to Sunday? Breanna Stewart and Sue Bird with the Storm and A’ja Wilson and Dearica Hamby of the Aces will be waiting, fully rested.


fivethirthyeight--2020-09-18--Can You Break A Very Expensive Centrifuge?

Welcome to The Riddler .
Every week , I offer up problems related to the things we hold dear around here : math , logic and probability .
Two puzzles are presented each week : the Riddler Express for those of you who want something bite-size and the Riddler Classic for those of you in the slow-puzzle movement .
Submit a correct answer for either , and you may get a shoutout in next week ’ s column .
Please wait until Monday to publicly share your answers !
If you need a hint or have a favorite puzzle collecting @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on Twitter .
From Quoc Tran comes a curious case of centrifugation : Quoc ’ s lab has a microcentrifuge , a piece of equipment that can separate components of a liquid by spinning around very rapidly .
Liquid samples are pipetted into small tubes , which are then placed in one of the microcentrifuge ’ s 12 slots evenly spaced in a circle .
For the microcentrifuge to work properly , each tube must hold the same amount of liquid .
Also , importantly , the center of mass of the samples @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the circle — otherwise , the microcentrifuge will not be balanced and may break .
Quoc notices that there is no way to place exactly one tube in the microcentrifuge so that it will be balanced , but he can place two tubes ( e.g.
, in slots 1 and 7 ) .
Now Quoc needs to spin exactly seven samples .
In which slots ( numbered 1 through 12 , as in the diagram above ) should he place them so that the centrifuge will be balanced ?
Extra credit : Assuming @ @ @ @ @ @ @ many different balanced arrangements of seven samples are there ?
From Oliver Roeder , who knows a thing or two about riddles , comes a labyrinthine matter of lexicons : One of Ollie ’ s favorite online games is Guess My Word .
Each day , there is a secret word , and you try to guess it as efficiently as possible by typing in other words .
After each guess , you are told whether the secret word is alphabetically before or after your guess .
The game stops and congratulates you @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
For example , the secret word was recently “ nuance , ” which Ollie arrived at with the following series of nine guesses : naan , vacuum , rabbi , papa , oasis , nuclear , nix , noxious , nuance .
Each secret word is randomly chosen from a dictionary with exactly 267,751 entries .
If you have this dictionary memorized , and play the game as efficiently as possible , how many guesses should you expect to make to guess the secret word ?
Congratulations to 👏 Seth Cohen 👏 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s Riddler Express .
Last week , you were helping the folks from Blacksburg , Greensboro and Silver Spring , who were getting together for a game of pickup basketball .
Each week , anywhere from one to five individuals showed up from each town , with each outcome equally likely .
Using all the players that showed up , they wanted to create exactly two teams of equal size .
Everyone was wearing a jersey that matched the color mentioned in the name of their town .
To avoid confusion , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ towns should combine forces to play against the third town ’ s residents .
What was the probability that , on any given week , it was possible to form two equal teams with everyone playing , where two towns were pitted against the third ?
Since there were five possibilities for the number of players from each of the three towns , that meant the total number of outcomes to consider here was 5×5×5 , or 125 .
Some solvers , like the Highlands Latin School statistics class in Louisville , Kentucky @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the number of cases in which two towns combined to have the same number of players as the third .
The probability was then that number divided by 125 .
Meanwhile , many solvers worked backwards , starting with all the different ways to have two numbers add up to the third , and then counting up the corresponding number of permutations .
For example , the towns could have had one , three and four players respectively , since 1+3=4 .
There were then six total ways to assign these numbers to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , 3/1/4 , 3/4/1 , 4/1/3 and 4/3/1 .
In total , there were six ways for two whole numbers between 1 and 5 so to add up to another number between 1 and 5 .
Here they are , along with how many ways each set of numbers could be assigned to the three towns : Adding these up , there were 30 total ways for two towns to be fairly matched up against the third .
Since there were 125 total outcomes to consider , the probability of a fair match @ @ @ @ @ @ @ For extra credit , you looked at a broader version of the puzzle , in which each town had anywhere from one to N players , rather than just one to five .
Just as the denominator in the original riddle was 53 , here it was N3 .
But finding the numerator was trickier work .
Solver Nicholas Robbins ( from Blacksburg , Virginia ! )
and Alberto Rorai both supposed that Blacksburg happened to have the most players among the three towns .
If Blacksburg had two players , there was @ @ @ @ @ @ @ towns to make a fair match ( 1+1 ) .
If Blacksburg had three players , there were two ways ( 1+2 and 2+1 ) .
If Blacksburg had four players , there were three ways ( 1+3 , 2+2 and 3+1 ) .
This pattern continued all the way up to when Blacksburg had N players , when there were N−1 ways .
Counting these all up gave you 1+2+3+…+ ( N−1 ) , or N ( N−1 ) /2 .
But wait !
That was only when Blacksburg had the most @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Spring ?
To account for them , Alberto multiplied by three ( since there were three towns ) , which meant there were 3N ( N−1 ) /2 ways to have two numbers add up to the third number .
That was the numerator for our probability , while the denominator was N3 .
Dividing them gave a final answer of 3 ( N−1 ) / ( 2N2 ) .
Sure enough , this checked out for the case when N equals 5 , giving the expected answer of 24 percent .
But @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of a fair match went down .
When the towns move on to softball , they ’ ll definitely need a new system for assigning teams .
Congratulations to 👏 Mikolaj Franaszczuk 👏 of New York , New York , winner of last week ’ s Riddler Classic .
Last week marked the return of the Tour de FiveThirtyEight .
For every mountain in the bicycle race , the first few riders to reach the summit were awarded “ King of the Mountain ” points .
You were racing against three other riders @ @ @ @ @ @ @ first rider over the top would get 5 points , the second rider would get 3 , the third rider would get 2 , and the fourth rider would get 1 .
All four of you were of equal ability — that is , under normal circumstances , you all had an equal chance of reaching the summit first .
You were riding for Team A , one of your opponents was riding for Team B , but two of your competitors were both on Team C , meaning they could work together @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the mountain .
Whichever teammate happened to be slower on the climb would get a boost from their faster teammate , and the two of them would both reach the summit at the faster teammate ’ s time ( minus a very small fraction of a second ) .
As a lone rider , the odds were stacked against you .
How many points were you expected to win on this mountain ?
First off , if there hadn ’ t been any teams ( i.e.
, all four riders were on their @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , or 11 points , would be evenly split among the four riders , on average .
That meant you would have expected to get 2.75 points .
But the fact that there was a team threw a wrench into this analysis .
Fortunately , like last week ’ s Riddler Express , this could be solved by working through a few cases .
If you were Rider A , the other solo rider was B , and the two team riders were C , then you could concisely write the outcome of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ you came in first , then Rider B , then the two teammates ) .
However , an outcome like CABC would turn into CCAB , since the slower teammate C would catch up to their partner .
Without further ado , here are the 12 total outcomes had the teammates not worked together , along with how they then finished by working together .
In parentheses are the number of points you earn for each case .
Averaging these together meant you could expect 29/12 , or about 2.417 points on average @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and Sandeep Narayanaswami , grouped some of these 12 cases together ( e.g.
, one-fourth of the time you came in first , regardless of how the teammates did ) for an even more efficient calculation .
Meanwhile , Phil Rauscher noticed that this result was exactly one-third less than 2.75 , the expected number of points when there was no team .
Phil took this a step further , showing that whenever there are N racers , you can expect to finish one-third places further back on average when two of your @ @ @ @ @ @ @ your placement will only be affected when you would otherwise have finished between them ( not when you ’ re ahead of both of them or behind both of them ) , which happens one-third of the time .
The Tour de FiveThirtyEight continues to be a grueling test of endurance and cleverness .
I ’ ll see you at the next stage !
Well , aren ’ t you lucky ?
There ’ s a whole book full of the best puzzles from this column and some never-before-seen head-scratchers .
It ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and it ’ s in stores now !

Welcome to The Riddler. Every week, I offer up problems related to the things we hold dear around here: math, logic and probability. Two puzzles are presented each week: the Riddler Express for those of you who want something bite-size and the Riddler Classic for those of you in the slow-puzzle movement. Submit a correct answer for either, and you may get a shoutout in next week’s column. Please wait until Monday to publicly share your answers! If you need a hint or have a favorite puzzle collecting dust in your attic, find me on Twitter.
Riddler Express
From Quoc Tran comes a curious case of centrifugation:
Quoc’s lab has a microcentrifuge, a piece of equipment that can separate components of a liquid by spinning around very rapidly. Liquid samples are pipetted into small tubes, which are then placed in one of the microcentrifuge’s 12 slots evenly spaced in a circle.
For the microcentrifuge to work properly, each tube must hold the same amount of liquid. Also, importantly, the center of mass of the samples must be at the very center of the circle — otherwise, the microcentrifuge will not be balanced and may break.
Quoc notices that there is no way to place exactly one tube in the microcentrifuge so that it will be balanced, but he can place two tubes (e.g., in slots 1 and 7).
Now Quoc needs to spin exactly seven samples. In which slots (numbered 1 through 12, as in the diagram above) should he place them so that the centrifuge will be balanced?
Extra credit: Assuming the 12 slots are distinct, how many different balanced arrangements of seven samples are there?
Submit your answer
Riddler Classic
From Oliver Roeder, who knows a thing or two about riddles, comes a labyrinthine matter of lexicons:
One of Ollie’s favorite online games is Guess My Word. Each day, there is a secret word, and you try to guess it as efficiently as possible by typing in other words. After each guess, you are told whether the secret word is alphabetically before or after your guess. The game stops and congratulates you when you have guessed the secret word. For example, the secret word was recently “nuance,” which Ollie arrived at with the following series of nine guesses: naan, vacuum, rabbi, papa, oasis, nuclear, nix, noxious, nuance.
Each secret word is randomly chosen from a dictionary with exactly 267,751 entries. If you have this dictionary memorized, and play the game as efficiently as possible, how many guesses should you expect to make to guess the secret word?
Submit your answer
Solution to last week’s Riddler Express
Congratulations to 👏 Seth Cohen 👏 of Concord, winner of last week’s Riddler Express.
Last week, you were helping the folks from Blacksburg, Greensboro and Silver Spring, who were getting together for a game of pickup basketball. Each week, anywhere from one to five individuals showed up from each town, with each outcome equally likely.
Using all the players that showed up, they wanted to create exactly two teams of equal size. Everyone was wearing a jersey that matched the color mentioned in the name of their town. To avoid confusion, they agreed that the residents of two towns should combine forces to play against the third town’s residents.
What was the probability that, on any given week, it was possible to form two equal teams with everyone playing, where two towns were pitted against the third?
Since there were five possibilities for the number of players from each of the three towns, that meant the total number of outcomes to consider here was 5×5×5, or 125. Some solvers, like the Highlands Latin School statistics class in Louisville, Kentucky, analyzed all 125 cases, finding the number of cases in which two towns combined to have the same number of players as the third. The probability was then that number divided by 125.
Meanwhile, many solvers worked backwards, starting with all the different ways to have two numbers add up to the third, and then counting up the corresponding number of permutations. For example, the towns could have had one, three and four players respectively, since 1+3=4. There were then six total ways to assign these numbers to the three towns: 1/3/4, 1/4/3, 3/1/4, 3/4/1, 4/1/3 and 4/3/1.
In total, there were six ways for two whole numbers between 1 and 5 so to add up to another number between 1 and 5. Here they are, along with how many ways each set of numbers could be assigned to the three towns:
1+1=2, three ways
1+2=3, six ways
1+3=4, six ways
1+4=5, six ways
2+2=4, three ways
2+3=5, six ways
Adding these up, there were 30 total ways for two towns to be fairly matched up against the third. Since there were 125 total outcomes to consider, the probability of a fair match was 30/125, or 24 percent.
For extra credit, you looked at a broader version of the puzzle, in which each town had anywhere from one to N players, rather than just one to five. Just as the denominator in the original riddle was 53, here it was N3. But finding the numerator was trickier work.
Solver Nicholas Robbins (from Blacksburg, Virginia!) and Alberto Rorai both supposed that Blacksburg happened to have the most players among the three towns. If Blacksburg had two players, there was only one way for the other two towns to make a fair match (1+1). If Blacksburg had three players, there were two ways (1+2 and 2+1). If Blacksburg had four players, there were three ways (1+3, 2+2 and 3+1). This pattern continued all the way up to when Blacksburg had N players, when there were N−1 ways. Counting these all up gave you 1+2+3+…+(N−1), or N(N−1)/2.
But wait! That was only when Blacksburg had the most players. What about Greensboro and Silver Spring? To account for them, Alberto multiplied by three (since there were three towns), which meant there were 3N(N−1)/2 ways to have two numbers add up to the third number.
That was the numerator for our probability, while the denominator was N3. Dividing them gave a final answer of 3(N−1)/(2N2). Sure enough, this checked out for the case when N equals 5, giving the expected answer of 24 percent. But as N got bigger, the chances of a fair match went down.
When the towns move on to softball, they’ll definitely need a new system for assigning teams.
Solution to last week’s Riddler Classic
Congratulations to 👏 Mikolaj Franaszczuk 👏 of New York, New York, winner of last week’s Riddler Classic.
Last week marked the return of the Tour de FiveThirtyEight. For every mountain in the bicycle race, the first few riders to reach the summit were awarded “King of the Mountain” points.
You were racing against three other riders up one of the mountains. The first rider over the top would get 5 points, the second rider would get 3, the third rider would get 2, and the fourth rider would get 1.
All four of you were of equal ability — that is, under normal circumstances, you all had an equal chance of reaching the summit first. You were riding for Team A, one of your opponents was riding for Team B, but two of your competitors were both on Team C, meaning they could work together, drafting and setting a tempo up the mountain. Whichever teammate happened to be slower on the climb would get a boost from their faster teammate, and the two of them would both reach the summit at the faster teammate’s time (minus a very small fraction of a second).
As a lone rider, the odds were stacked against you. How many points were you expected to win on this mountain?
First off, if there hadn’t been any teams (i.e., all four riders were on their own), then the 5+3+2+1 points, or 11 points, would be evenly split among the four riders, on average. That meant you would have expected to get 2.75 points.
But the fact that there was a team threw a wrench into this analysis. Fortunately, like last week’s Riddler Express, this could be solved by working through a few cases. If you were Rider A, the other solo rider was B, and the two team riders were C, then you could concisely write the outcome of a race like ABCC (i.e., you came in first, then Rider B, then the two teammates). However, an outcome like CABC would turn into CCAB, since the slower teammate C would catch up to their partner.
Without further ado, here are the 12 total outcomes had the teammates not worked together, along with how they then finished by working together. In parentheses are the number of points you earn for each case.
ABCC → ABCC (5 points)
ACBC → ACCB (5 points)
ACCB → ACCB (5 points)
BACC → BACC (3 points)
BCAC → BCCA (1 points)
BCCA → BCCA (1 points)
CABC → CCAB (2 points)
CACB → CCAB (2 points)
CBAC → CCBA (1 points)
CBCA → CCBA (1 points)
CCAB → CCAB (2 points)
CCBA → CCBA (1 points)
Averaging these together meant you could expect 29/12, or about 2.417 points on average. Several solvers, like Emma Beer and Sandeep Narayanaswami, grouped some of these 12 cases together (e.g., one-fourth of the time you came in first, regardless of how the teammates did) for an even more efficient calculation.
Meanwhile, Phil Rauscher noticed that this result was exactly one-third less than 2.75, the expected number of points when there was no team. Phil took this a step further, showing that whenever there are N racers, you can expect to finish one-third places further back on average when two of your opponents are teammates. This is because your placement will only be affected when you would otherwise have finished between them (not when you’re ahead of both of them or behind both of them), which happens one-third of the time.
The Tour de FiveThirtyEight continues to be a grueling test of endurance and cleverness. I’ll see you at the next stage!
Want more riddles?
Well, aren’t you lucky? There’s a whole book full of the best puzzles from this column and some never-before-seen head-scratchers. It’s called “The Riddler,” and it’s in stores now!
Want to submit a riddle?
Email Zach Wissner-Gross at riddlercolumn@gmail.com


fivethirthyeight--2020-09-18--How Asian Americans Are Thinking About The 2020 Election

Welcome to Pollapalooza , our weekly polling roundup .
Asian American voters didn ’ t always lean Democratic .
In 1992 , less than a third of Asian Americans voted Democratic .
But nowadays , most Asian Americans identify as Democrats , with more than half saying they plan to back Joe Biden and less than a third saying they ’ d vote for President Trump , according to the latest Asian American Voter Survey released this week .
Asian American voters are hardly a monolith .
The different groups that comprise Asian American voters are divided over how much @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Biden for president .
For instance , Filipino Americans are more evenly divided among supporting Biden and Trump than Japanese Americans .
And Indian Americans , who have been reliably Democratic for years , now show some signs of slowly shifting to the right .
Finally , Vietnamese Americans lean pretty consistently Republican .
Asian Americans are one of the fastest growing racial or ethnic segments of eligible voters in the United States .
and make up 4.7 percent of all eligible voters , but there hasn ’ t been that much reliable @ @ @ @ @ @ @ survey provides one of the few snapshots of how Asian American voters feel about the upcoming presidential election .
That said , it ’ s important that we don ’ t read too much into one survey .
Only about 250 respondents were in each subgroup , putting the margin of error at +/- 6 percentage points for each group .
But by looking at how Asian Americans have politically identified since 2012 , we can more clearly see some of the trends in this most recent survey .
What immediately jumps out @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Democratic-leaning overall , Republicans have been making some headway — particularly among certain groups of national origin — over the last few elections .
Take Vietnamese Americans , who among Asian Americans are the most likely to identify as Republican .
Anabelle Vo , a 30-year-old video editor based in Los Angeles who started a podcast called Mỹ Gốc Việt ( “ Americans from Vietnam ” ) along with her childhood friend Bee Ngo , told me this is partly because the Vietnam War still looms large in how many older Vietnamese Americans @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to the U.S. after the war , and Vo said they may support the Republican Party because they view it as more strongly anti-communist than the Democratic Party .
Her friend and podcast co-host , Ngo , also pointed out that many Vietnamese Americans who identify as Catholic may be more socially conservative , a factor that could also explain why Filipino Americans , 65 percent of whom are Catholic , are more likely to support Republicans than other groups of Asian Americans .
But it ’ s unclear how strong some of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Vo , a professor in the Department of Asian American Studies at the University of California , Irvine .
For instance , even though many Vietnamese Americans identify as Republicans , there is some evidence that they might be moving away from the party .
And much of this comes down to age , which was a possible cleavage among Asian American voters in the Democratic primary .
Both Anabelle Vo and Ngo have noticed a distinct generational divide in their own personal experiences , with younger Vietnamese Americans much more likely to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ their parents or grandparents .
This is something that Linda Vo has also noticed in her research .
“ [ T ] here is a definite generational divide , ” Vo said .
“ That younger generation tends to be for the Democratic Party and tends to have more progressive politics.
” She did say the politics of Vietnamese Americans were changing , but slowly .
On the other hand , Republicans have seen modest gains among Indian Americans , who are the most Democratic-leaning group of Asian Americans .
Some of this @ @ @ @ @ @ @ efforts by activist groups like the Republican Hindu Coalition , who capitalized on ideological overlaps between Trump and India ’ s popular nationalist Prime Minister Narendra Modi in 2016 , leading some Indian Americans to vote Republican .
Only 21 percent of Indian Americans identify with , or lean towards , the Republican Party , but that ’ s still roughly double what it was in 2012 .
However , the majority of Asian Americans do identify as Democrats .
And that could be in part because there is a lot of overlap @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of every stripe and those espoused by the Democratic Party .
For instance , according to the survey , 81 percent of Asian Americans support stricter gun laws , 77 percent support stronger legislation to address climate change , 70 percent support affirmative action in higher education , 63 percent believe the government should do more to give Black Americans equal rights with white Americans , 59 percent support a pathway to citizenship for undocumented immigrants , 59 percent support shifting funding away from law enforcement , and 55 percent support expanding access @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of legal status .
“ When you break it down to certain issues like health care and things like that , that ’ s how it gets easier for me to discuss things with older folks , ” Anabelle Vo said .
Vo describes herself as more progressive than the typical Democratic voter and has attended demonstrations and marches for like-minded causes .
And interestingly , there weren ’ t significant divides on these issues between more conservative Asian American groups , like Vietnamese Americans , and more liberal Asian American groups , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Vietnamese Americans were more likely to favor stricter gun control legislation , policies to curb climate change and affirmative action , than Asian Americans as a whole .
If Republicans are looking to persuade Asian Americans , however , there is one potential issue where they may have the upperhand .
Ninety percent of Asian Americans said that jobs and the economy are either “ extremely ” or “ very ” important .
And on that issue , 35 percent said that Republicans are doing a better job , while only 31 percent @ @ @ @ @ @ @ there was no difference , or that they don ’ t know .
It is hard to imagine that Asian American voters will greatly shift in their support before the election , so the real question is whether they ’ ll come out to the polls ( or mail in their ballot ) .
The survey did find high levels of enthusiasm for voting ( 82 percent said they were at least as enthusiastic about voting this year as they were in previous elections , with more than half saying they were more @ @ @ @ @ @ @ parties has been very low .
Only 30 percent of Asian American voters said they have been contacted by the Democratic Party in the past year , and only 24 percent said they have been contacted by the Republican Party .
And if the race ends up being anything like 2016 , where Trump won key states like Michigan with razor-thin margins , turnout among this relatively small — but growing — subset of the electorate could matter .
• A Quinnipiac University poll of Maine voters found that Sen. Susan Collins , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the upper chamber , is trailing Democratic challenger Sara Gideon by double digits ( 54 percent to 42 percent ) among likely voters .
Most of the recent polling in Maine has shown Gideon in the lead as well , although not by as large of a margin .
FiveThirtyEight ’ s new Senate forecast , however , shows a tight race , with Collins having a roughly 50-50 shot at winning reelection .
That ’ s because the forecast also takes into account factors other than polling , such as fundraising , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ lean and expert ratings .
However , the Lite version of the forecast , which is based on polling alone , gives Collins only about a 1 in 4 chance of keeping her seat .
Either way , it will be a race to watch closely !
• Support for the Black Lives Matter movement is down to 55 percent , compared with 67 percent in June , according to a survey conducted in September by the Pew Research Center .
And while support for the movement remains high among Black Americans at @ @ @ @ @ @ @ has dropped from 60 to 45 percent .
The drop in support among white Americans came primarily from white Republicans .
Support among white Democrats fell from 92 percent to 88 percent , but support among white Republicans dropped by more than half , from 37 percent to 16 percent .
• According to a YouGov/NBCLX poll , 57 percent of Americans who plan to cast their ballot by mail said they plan to do so a month or more before Election Day , 29 percent two to three weeks before , 5 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 9 percent on Election Day .
Recent polling has shown that about a third of Americans intend to cast their ballot by mail this year , and Democrats appear more likely to do so than Republicans .
• According to this week ’ s YouGov/Economist poll , 37 percent of Americans said that we will know who won the presidency this November either on the night of the election or the day after .
Thirty-nine percent said that we will know the results either a few days or a week after the election @ @ @ @ @ @ @ know a few weeks after the election , 8 percent said a month after the election or later , and 17 percent said they didn ’ t know .
• In other news , teens think school sucks … more than usual .
Fifty-nine percent of teens said online learning is either “ worse ” or “ much worse ” than in-person schooling , according to a SurveyMonkey poll .
The silver lining ?
Twenty-one percent said it is the same , and 19 percent said it is either “ better ” or @ @ @ @ @ @ @ scheduled to finally head to the polls next month to elect a new president .
The elections , originally planned for May , come amid a flurry of protests as the interim President Jeanine Áñez has already postponed the election twice , citing COVID-19-related concerns , and the Council of Foreign Relations reports a deep erosion of trust among Bolivians .
A poll by Fundación Jubileo and a host of other Bolivian academic and media institutions found that Luis Arce , a socialist candidate who is loyal to ousted ex-president Evo Morales , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of the vote , followed by Carlos Mesa , a former president who got 19 percent .
A handful of other candidates , including Áñez , each got 10 percent or less .
To win outright , a candidate needs either a majority of the vote or more than 40 percent of the vote with at least a 10-point advantage ; otherwise , the election proceeds to a second round .
According to FiveThirtyEight ’ s presidential approval tracker , 43.3 percent of Americans approve of the job Trump is doing as president @ @ @ @ @ @ @ net approval rating of -9.5 points ) .
At this time last week , 42.7 percent approved and 53.1 percent disapproved ( a net approval rating of -10.4 points ) .
One month ago , Trump had an approval rating of 42.0 percent and a disapproval rating of 54.0 percent , for a net approval rating of -12.0 points .
In our average of polls of the generic congressional ballot , Democrats currently lead by 6.4 percentage points ( 48.6 percent to 42.2 percent ) .
A week ago , Democrats led Republicans @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 42.0 percent ) .
At this time last month , voters preferred Democrats by 7.3 points ( 48.5 percent to 41.2 percent ) .

Welcome to Pollapalooza, our weekly polling roundup.
Poll of the week
Asian American voters didn’t always lean Democratic. In 1992, less than a third of Asian Americans voted Democratic. But nowadays, most Asian Americans identify as Democrats, with more than half saying they plan to back Joe Biden and less than a third saying they’d vote for President Trump, according to the latest Asian American Voter Survey released this week.
Asian American voters are hardly a monolith. The different groups that comprise Asian American voters are divided over how much — and whether — they will back Biden for president. For instance, Filipino Americans are more evenly divided among supporting Biden and Trump than Japanese Americans. And Indian Americans, who have been reliably Democratic for years, now show some signs of slowly shifting to the right. Finally, Vietnamese Americans lean pretty consistently Republican.
Asian Americans are one of the fastest growing racial or ethnic segments of eligible voters in the United States. and make up 4.7 percent of all eligible voters, but there hasn’t been that much reliable polling on Asian Americans, so this survey provides one of the few snapshots of how Asian American voters feel about the upcoming presidential election.
That said, it’s important that we don’t read too much into one survey. Only about 250 respondents were in each subgroup, putting the margin of error at +/- 6 percentage points for each group. But by looking at how Asian Americans have politically identified since 2012, we can more clearly see some of the trends in this most recent survey. What immediately jumps out is that while Asian Americans are very Democratic-leaning overall, Republicans have been making some headway — particularly among certain groups of national origin — over the last few elections.
Take Vietnamese Americans, who among Asian Americans are the most likely to identify as Republican. Anabelle Vo, a 30-year-old video editor based in Los Angeles who started a podcast called Mỹ Gốc Việt (“Americans from Vietnam”) along with her childhood friend Bee Ngo, told me this is partly because the Vietnam War still looms large in how many older Vietnamese Americans identify politically. Many Vietnamese Americans fled to the U.S. after the war, and Vo said they may support the Republican Party because they view it as more strongly anti-communist than the Democratic Party. Her friend and podcast co-host, Ngo, also pointed out that many Vietnamese Americans who identify as Catholic may be more socially conservative, a factor that could also explain why Filipino Americans, 65 percent of whom are Catholic, are more likely to support Republicans than other groups of Asian Americans.
But it’s unclear how strong some of these trends are, according to Linda Vo, a professor in the Department of Asian American Studies at the University of California, Irvine. For instance, even though many Vietnamese Americans identify as Republicans, there is some evidence that they might be moving away from the party. And much of this comes down to age, which was a possible cleavage among Asian American voters in the Democratic primary. Both Anabelle Vo and Ngo have noticed a distinct generational divide in their own personal experiences, with younger Vietnamese Americans much more likely to identify with the Democratic Party than would their parents or grandparents. This is something that Linda Vo has also noticed in her research. “[T]here is a definite generational divide,” Vo said. “That younger generation tends to be for the Democratic Party and tends to have more progressive politics.” She did say the politics of Vietnamese Americans were changing, but slowly.
On the other hand, Republicans have seen modest gains among Indian Americans, who are the most Democratic-leaning group of Asian Americans. Some of this may have to do with increased mobilization efforts by activist groups like the Republican Hindu Coalition, who capitalized on ideological overlaps between Trump and India’s popular nationalist Prime Minister Narendra Modi in 2016, leading some Indian Americans to vote Republican. Only 21 percent of Indian Americans identify with, or lean towards, the Republican Party, but that’s still roughly double what it was in 2012.
However, the majority of Asian Americans do identify as Democrats. And that could be in part because there is a lot of overlap between the policy preferences of Asian Americans of every stripe and those espoused by the Democratic Party. For instance, according to the survey, 81 percent of Asian Americans support stricter gun laws, 77 percent support stronger legislation to address climate change, 70 percent support affirmative action in higher education, 63 percent believe the government should do more to give Black Americans equal rights with white Americans, 59 percent support a pathway to citizenship for undocumented immigrants, 59 percent support shifting funding away from law enforcement, and 55 percent support expanding access to health insurance to all immigrants regardless of legal status.
“When you break it down to certain issues like health care and things like that, that’s how it gets easier for me to discuss things with older folks,” Anabelle Vo said. Vo describes herself as more progressive than the typical Democratic voter and has attended demonstrations and marches for like-minded causes. And interestingly, there weren’t significant divides on these issues between more conservative Asian American groups, like Vietnamese Americans, and more liberal Asian American groups, like Indian Americans. For instance, Vietnamese Americans were more likely to favor stricter gun control legislation, policies to curb climate change and affirmative action, than Asian Americans as a whole.
If Republicans are looking to persuade Asian Americans, however, there is one potential issue where they may have the upperhand. Ninety percent of Asian Americans said that jobs and the economy are either “extremely” or “very” important. And on that issue, 35 percent said that Republicans are doing a better job, while only 31 percent said Democrats are. The rest said there was no difference, or that they don’t know.
It is hard to imagine that Asian American voters will greatly shift in their support before the election, so the real question is whether they’ll come out to the polls (or mail in their ballot). The survey did find high levels of enthusiasm for voting (82 percent said they were at least as enthusiastic about voting this year as they were in previous elections, with more than half saying they were more enthusiastic), but outreach from political parties has been very low. Only 30 percent of Asian American voters said they have been contacted by the Democratic Party in the past year, and only 24 percent said they have been contacted by the Republican Party.
And if the race ends up being anything like 2016, where Trump won key states like Michigan with razor-thin margins, turnout among this relatively small — but growing — subset of the electorate could matter.
Other polling bites
Trump approval
According to FiveThirtyEight’s presidential approval tracker, 43.3 percent of Americans approve of the job Trump is doing as president, while 52.7 percent disapprove (a net approval rating of -9.5 points). At this time last week, 42.7 percent approved and 53.1 percent disapproved (a net approval rating of -10.4 points). One month ago, Trump had an approval rating of 42.0 percent and a disapproval rating of 54.0 percent, for a net approval rating of -12.0 points.
Generic ballot
In our average of polls of the generic congressional ballot, Democrats currently lead by 6.4 percentage points (48.6 percent to 42.2 percent). A week ago, Democrats led Republicans by 6.6 points (48.5 percent to 42.0 percent). At this time last month, voters preferred Democrats by 7.3 points (48.5 percent to 41.2 percent).