fivethirthyeight--2020-08-06--The Pace Of Play Has Never Been Faster In The WNBA

The Connecticut Sun , last season ’ s WNBA Finals runners-up , were a fairly fast team in 2019 .
They played at a pace of 78.7 possessions per 40 minutes , good for fourth in the league .
This year , they ’ re even faster .
They entered Tuesday night ’ s game playing at a pace of 83.2 possessions per 40 minutes .
That rate would have been good enough to lead the WNBA last year .
But this season , it was only the seventh best .
The Sun are part of a leaguewide trend toward @ @ @ @ @ @ @ new heights in 2020 .
Strategy is playing a part in this speedier pace , but it may also be a result of the unique calendar provided by this delayed season .
The trend isn ’ t completely new : The fastest teams in the league have increased their pace steadily in recent years .
But what ’ s changed in 2020 is that now virtually every team is playing faster , using possessions on par with how the outliers were playing in past years .
In 2017 , three teams — the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the Dallas Wings — all topped 80 possessions per 40 minutes , the first time since 2011 that any WNBA team managed that feat .
In 2018 , only the Aces did , while in 2019 , the Aces and Sky topped 80 .
So far in 2020 ?
There were nine teams north of 80 entering Wednesday night ’ s games .
Some of this is a simple matter of evolution .
There are more and more teams with elite rebounders who can turn around after grabbing a board and run the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s Alyssa Thomas , for instance , serves as both their best rebounder and a primary facilitator , which coach Curt Miller thinks helps the Sun get more transition opportunities .
With teams as a rule scoring more efficiently in transition than in the halfcourt , this is a natural outgrowth of getting players capable of that pairing of skills .
“ We feel we can be successful getting out and running , especially with AT facilitating , ” Miller said .
“ And we have some people who can thrive up-tempo.
” @ @ @ @ @ @ @ under Anne Donovan in 2015 , had 48 total possessions used in transition , per Synergy .
By 2019 , she was up to 115 , or 3.38 per game .
So far in 2020 ?
She ’ s at 24 , or 4.8 possessions per game .
But while Thomas ’ s combination of size and secondary facilitating was once relatively unique among the bigger WNBA wings , it has become the norm .
The Los Angeles Sparks ’ Candace Parker led the way , followed by the Seattle Storm ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Delle Donne , but now we see that pairing throughout the league .
Whether it ’ s Satou Sabally and Bella Alarie of the Dallas Wings , Myisha Hines-Allen of the Washington Mystics or Napheesa Collier of the Minnesota Lynx , a sea change in the position of power forward has altered the overall play in the league .
There are other reasons for the tempo change as well , and not just strategic ones .
Because of the onset of COVID-19 , the league ’ s players who spend time abroad ended @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the WNBA training camp in Bradenton , Florida , didn ’ t begin until July .
The bounce in everybody ’ s step was apparent from the moment the group of players gathered .
“ It ’ s probably a combination of new coaches and new players in this league and youthful legs , and just having that time off , ” Dream coach Nicki Collen said .
Her Dream are playing at a rate of 83 possessions per 40 minutes in 2020 , up from 77.4 in 2019 .
Of course , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ an elite playmaker in the fold like rookie sensation Chennedy Carter , with the overall efficiency for the Dream jumping from an offensive rating of 91.6 in 2019 to 98.8 in 2020 .
And as Collen pointed out , that ’ s the key indicator — not whether the team can maximize speed , but how it manages to score points in the process .
She ’ s more concerned with tracking , for instance , how many possessions the Dream can get Carter into the paint , as opposed to times down @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to the perimeter .
The speed itself , well , it can be a barrier to better offensive play at times , rather than a cause of it .
“ Is there a point where I think diminishing returns happen ?
” Collen asked rhetorically .
“ If you ’ re playing too fast and you get sloppy , that is a problem.
” That point was echoed by Mystics coach Mike Thibault , whose Mystics posted the best offensive season in WNBA history in 2019 , with an offensive rating of 115.9 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ at 76.7 possessions per 40 minutes .
So far this season , the Mystics are fifth in the league in pace , with an 83.2 mark that would have led the league in 2019 , while their offensive rating is down to 111.2 ( which is still tops in the league ) .
“ We never talk about pace numbers , ” Thibault said .
“ I think it ’ s one of the most overrated stats .
… We only have some rules about getting the ball across halfcourt .
But then @ @ @ @ @ @ @ whole shot clock to get a good shot , great.
” Then again , Thibault probably doesn ’ t mind when Hines-Allen does this .
The elevated pace has not sacrificed offensive efficiency so far .
The league ’ s pace overall was 77.7 in 2019 and is 81.7 in 2020 .
But the league ’ s offensive rating has also risen , from 100.9 in 2019 to 102.4 in 2020 .
The accelerated game does favor teams with , for instance , point guards capable of maximizing the outcomes in transition .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ the show , have emphasized pace since current coach James Wade arrived on the scene .
Then again , his theory for why it ’ s become a leaguewide trend is a more cynical one .
“ I think it goes to nobody sitting in a defensive stance , ” Wade said .
“ I think everybody ’ s running and conditioning , but you know , as far as defense is concerned , it ’ s not so as existent as it was last season.
” There are exceptions , of course @ @ @ @ @ @ @ as a team that “ really gets up in your grill.
” The numbers bear him out on that front : The Lynx are at the very bottom of the league in pace so far , at 77.6 possessions per 40 minutes .
The league ’ s pace also affects the overall ability of individual players to thrive .
Take Layshia Clarendon , the New York Liberty ’ s point guard , as an example .
In 2017 , she made an All-Star team with the Atlanta Dream , but she struggled to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , among players with at least 50 transition possessions in 2017 , Clarendon ranked 33rd of 33 in points per possession , just 0.686 .
So she began working with a performance coach on getting better at finishing at the rim , through contact , especially in transition .
Fast forward to 2020 , and that performance coach , Walt Hopkins , is now her head coach in New York .
She ’ s third in the league in points per possession in transition , at 1.25 .
And after averaging 2.53 such @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s at 4 per game so far in 2020 , part of a Liberty team that runs early and often .
Clarendon , thus far , is scoring 14.8 points per game , a number likely to rise as the Liberty manage the loss of Sabrina Ionescu to an ankle injury .
“ I ’ ve just gotten more comfortable , ” Clarendon said .
“ I ’ ve gotten stronger .
I ’ m getting a lot better at the slow steps in transition — so , the ability to be @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and finish and focus on the rim.
” Despite the success of players like Clarendon , there are coaches who don ’ t want to keep the league on a perpetual increase in tempo .
For all their running , Miller ’ s Sun are down from an offensive rating of 102.4 last season , third in the league , to just 92.7 so far in 2020 , 11th overall .
“ We may not have the ability to run over a 40-minute period like we have been the last couple years , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ we have to pick and choose our opportunities , to see if we can manufacture some easy points in transition … we also at times may need to take the air out of it.
” Although , even when the Sun slow things down , they ’ re still moving pretty fast in this new running league .

The Connecticut Sun, last season’s WNBA Finals runners-up, were a fairly fast team in 2019. They played at a pace of 78.7 possessions per 40 minutes, good for fourth in the league. This year, they’re even faster. They entered Tuesday night’s game playing at a pace of 83.2 possessions per 40 minutes.
That rate would have been good enough to lead the WNBA last year. But this season, it was only the seventh best.
The Sun are part of a leaguewide trend toward playing ever faster, which has reached new heights in 2020. Strategy is playing a part in this speedier pace, but it may also be a result of the unique calendar provided by this delayed season.
The trend isn’t completely new: The fastest teams in the league have increased their pace steadily in recent years. But what’s changed in 2020 is that now virtually every team is playing faster, using possessions on par with how the outliers were playing in past years.
In 2017, three teams — the Connecticut Sun, the Chicago Sky and the Dallas Wings — all topped 80 possessions per 40 minutes, the first time since 2011 that any WNBA team managed that feat. In 2018, only the Aces did, while in 2019, the Aces and Sky topped 80.
So far in 2020? There were nine teams north of 80 entering Wednesday night’s games.
Some of this is a simple matter of evolution. There are more and more teams with elite rebounders who can turn around after grabbing a board and run the offense in transition. The Sun’s Alyssa Thomas, for instance, serves as both their best rebounder and a primary facilitator, which coach Curt Miller thinks helps the Sun get more transition opportunities. With teams as a rule scoring more efficiently in transition than in the halfcourt, this is a natural outgrowth of getting players capable of that pairing of skills.
“We feel we can be successful getting out and running, especially with AT facilitating,” Miller said. “And we have some people who can thrive up-tempo.”
Thomas, playing a more traditional four under Anne Donovan in 2015, had 48 total possessions used in transition, per Synergy. By 2019, she was up to 115, or 3.38 per game. So far in 2020? She’s at 24, or 4.8 possessions per game.
But while Thomas’s combination of size and secondary facilitating was once relatively unique among the bigger WNBA wings, it has become the norm. The Los Angeles Sparks’ Candace Parker led the way, followed by the Seattle Storm’s Breanna Stewart and Washington Mystics’ Elena Delle Donne, but now we see that pairing throughout the league. Whether it’s Satou Sabally and Bella Alarie of the Dallas Wings, Myisha Hines-Allen of the Washington Mystics or Napheesa Collier of the Minnesota Lynx, a sea change in the position of power forward has altered the overall play in the league.
There are other reasons for the tempo change as well, and not just strategic ones. Because of the onset of COVID-19, the league’s players who spend time abroad ended their overseas campaigns in March, while the WNBA training camp in Bradenton, Florida, didn’t begin until July. The bounce in everybody’s step was apparent from the moment the group of players gathered.
“It’s probably a combination of new coaches and new players in this league and youthful legs, and just having that time off,” Dream coach Nicki Collen said. Her Dream are playing at a rate of 83 possessions per 40 minutes in 2020, up from 77.4 in 2019. Of course, it doesn’t hurt to have an elite playmaker in the fold like rookie sensation Chennedy Carter, with the overall efficiency for the Dream jumping from an offensive rating of 91.6 in 2019 to 98.8 in 2020.
And as Collen pointed out, that’s the key indicator — not whether the team can maximize speed, but how it manages to score points in the process. She’s more concerned with tracking, for instance, how many possessions the Dream can get Carter into the paint, as opposed to times down the floor when she’s limited to the perimeter. The speed itself, well, it can be a barrier to better offensive play at times, rather than a cause of it.
“Is there a point where I think diminishing returns happen?” Collen asked rhetorically. “If you’re playing too fast and you get sloppy, that is a problem.”
That point was echoed by Mystics coach Mike Thibault, whose Mystics posted the best offensive season in WNBA history in 2019, with an offensive rating of 115.9, despite finishing eighth in pace, at 76.7 possessions per 40 minutes. So far this season, the Mystics are fifth in the league in pace, with an 83.2 mark that would have led the league in 2019, while their offensive rating is down to 111.2 (which is still tops in the league).
“We never talk about pace numbers,” Thibault said. “I think it’s one of the most overrated stats. … We only have some rules about getting the ball across halfcourt. But then, if you have to use the whole shot clock to get a good shot, great.”
Then again, Thibault probably doesn’t mind when Hines-Allen does this.
Myisha Hines-Allen has 22 points so far in the first half. @Mooks_22 She averaged 2.3 points per game last year. (via @WashMystics) pic.twitter.com/xhyslNgTjw — WSLAM (@wslam) July 25, 2020
The elevated pace has not sacrificed offensive efficiency so far. The league’s pace overall was 77.7 in 2019 and is 81.7 in 2020. But the league’s offensive rating has also risen, from 100.9 in 2019 to 102.4 in 2020.
The accelerated game does favor teams with, for instance, point guards capable of maximizing the outcomes in transition. The Sky, with Courtney Vandersloot running the show, have emphasized pace since current coach James Wade arrived on the scene. Then again, his theory for why it’s become a leaguewide trend is a more cynical one.
“I think it goes to nobody sitting in a defensive stance,” Wade said. “I think everybody’s running and conditioning, but you know, as far as defense is concerned, it’s not so as existent as it was last season.” There are exceptions, of course, and Wade cited the Minnesota Lynx as a team that “really gets up in your grill.” The numbers bear him out on that front: The Lynx are at the very bottom of the league in pace so far, at 77.6 possessions per 40 minutes.
The league’s pace also affects the overall ability of individual players to thrive. Take Layshia Clarendon, the New York Liberty’s point guard, as an example. In 2017, she made an All-Star team with the Atlanta Dream, but she struggled to score on the run — per Synergy, among players with at least 50 transition possessions in 2017, Clarendon ranked 33rd of 33 in points per possession, just 0.686. So she began working with a performance coach on getting better at finishing at the rim, through contact, especially in transition.
Fast forward to 2020, and that performance coach, Walt Hopkins, is now her head coach in New York. She’s third in the league in points per possession in transition, at 1.25. And after averaging 2.53 such possessions per game in 2017, she’s at 4 per game so far in 2020, part of a Liberty team that runs early and often. Clarendon, thus far, is scoring 14.8 points per game, a number likely to rise as the Liberty manage the loss of Sabrina Ionescu to an ankle injury.
“I’ve just gotten more comfortable,” Clarendon said. “I’ve gotten stronger. I’m getting a lot better at the slow steps in transition — so, the ability to be running full speed and then slow down and finish and focus on the rim.”
Despite the success of players like Clarendon, there are coaches who don’t want to keep the league on a perpetual increase in tempo. For all their running, Miller’s Sun are down from an offensive rating of 102.4 last season, third in the league, to just 92.7 so far in 2020, 11th overall.
“We may not have the ability to run over a 40-minute period like we have been the last couple years,” Miller said. “So while we have to pick and choose our opportunities, to see if we can manufacture some easy points in transition … we also at times may need to take the air out of it.”
Although, even when the Sun slow things down, they’re still moving pretty fast in this new running league.


fivethirthyeight--2020-08-06--Lonzo Ball Makes His Teammates Better — And Zion Makes Lonzo Better

The New Orleans Pelicans were always bound to be one of this season ’ s most fascinating teams .
The Pellies had already been preparing for a big change when they got lucky in the lottery and landed the No .
1 overall pick in the 2019 NBA draft .
The fortuitous bounce of the pingpong balls allowed them to leverage one foundational superstar ( Anthony Davis ) to acquire assets that could be used to build a younger , deeper , better supporting cast around a new one ( Zion Williamson ) .
In making a number of moves @ @ @ @ @ @ @ trade to the Lakers , David Griffin did exactly that .
The team ’ s executive vice president for basketball operations turned Davis , Solomon Hill and a late second-round pick into a collection of assets that included the No .
4 selection in the 2019 draft , De ’ Andre Hunter , which he then swapped for Jaxson Hayes , Nickeil Alexander-Walker and Marcos Louzada Silva ( the Nos .
8 , 17 and 35 picks ) , as well as a future pick courtesy of the Cavaliers .
He also secured @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , not two , but three of the Lakers ’ future first-round selections — and that ’ s on top of the acquisition of three of the Lakers ’ five most recent first-rounders : Brandon Ingram , Josh Hart and Lonzo Ball .
Williamson predictably lit up the preseason , only to suffer an injury that delayed his debut until January .
In his absence , Ingram blossomed into exactly the kind of player the Lakers envisioned when they made him the No .
2 overall pick in 2016 .
Returning from a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ him to miss the end of last season , Ingram played 39 of the 43 games Williamson missed prior to his debut , averaging 25.6 points , 6.7 rebounds and 4.4 assists per game with a 48-40-86 shooting line .
Meanwhile , Hart solidified himself as a valuable role player , knocking down a respectable percentage of his catch-and-shoot treys and defending four positions .
And then there ’ s Ball .
Early on , he just didn ’ t seem to fit in .
He was alternately starting and coming off the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ role or his confidence or something else entirely , things just … weren ’ t clicking .
After reworking his form in the offseason , Ball was more willing to shoot than he had been in the past , but he still wasn ’ t connecting very often .
Through the team ’ s Christmas Day game against the Nuggets , he was shooting just 37.4 percent from the field and 33.3 percent from deep .
Beginning with a back-to-back against the Pacers and Rockets a few nights later , though , the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 11 of 20 threes in those two games , which the Pellies won by a combined 37 points .
He collected his first triple-double of the season ( his first in over a year ) in the win over the Rockets ( who were missing James Harden and Russell Westbrook ) , and he would collect two more in the coming weeks , doubling his career total in the process .
During the 12 games beginning with that win over Indiana and ending with the final contest of Williamson ’ s injury-related absence @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 16.0 points , 7.4 rebounds and 8.4 assists a night while knocking down nearly 39 percent of his attempts from beyond the arc .
Williamson debuted on Jan. 22 , and while Ball ’ s usage rate ( and , thus , scoring average ) subsequently dipped , his efficiency spiked : In the 20 games following Zion ’ s return to the floor , Ball posted a 59.4 effective field-goal percentage — up from 51.4 in the preceding 12-game stretch and a wretched 46.9 through Christmas .
His assist rate jumped more @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s return as well .
Ball and Williamson have spectacular chemistry — especially in the open floor , where each of them is at his best .
Ball excels at throwing long-range passes , whether they be outlets or hit-aheads .
According to STATS LLC data provided to FiveThirtyEight , the percentage of Ball ’ s passes that traveled at least 20 feet in the air was fifth-highest among 316 qualified players , behind only LeBron James , James Harden , New Orleans teammate Jrue Holiday and DeMar DeRozan .
And among the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ such passes , Lonzo ’ s moved at the fourth-fastest average speed ( 27.71 mph ) .
Even more than speed or volume , though , the most impressive thing about Ball ’ s home-run passes is the accuracy .
He seems to know instinctively where to place the ball so that only his intended target can reach it , and he gets it there with Drew Brees-like precision .
Once he returned to the fold , Williamson became the most frequent intended target of these long-distance lasers , and he and Ball @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Prior to the season ’ s interruption , only 24 pairs of teammates connected on 15-plus lobs , according to Second Spectrum .
Between Williamson ’ s Jan. 22 debut and the beginning of the hiatus , just four other pairs of teammates joined Lonzo and Zion in reaching that mark .
Lonzo is just as willing and insightful a passer within the flow of the offense .
His genius-level floor vision and potential to be a transformative passer were his main selling points as a prospect , even going back to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s always seeking out the opportunity to make the extra pass — to turn an open shot for himself into a wide-open one for somebody else .
That kind of unselfishness is infectious , and it carries over to the rest of the team : Prior to the hiatus , 67.1 percent of Pelican baskets were assisted with Ball on the floor , compared to only 58 percent when he was on the bench .
New Orleans also threw an extra 14 passes per 100 possessions with Lonzo in the game over @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , however , times where he is arguably too unselfish .
Overeager passing fuels his turnover habit , with the significant majority of his giveaways coming on bad passes .
He also still struggles to convert his looks from anywhere other than the immediate area around the rim or beyond the arc : Among 174 players who attempted at least 125 shots outside the restricted area but inside the 3-point line prior to the hiatus , Ball ranked 170th in effective field-goal percentage , per Second Spectrum , underperforming expectations on those attempts @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s ironed out his form a bit thanks to extensive work with Pelicans assistant coach Fred Vinson , he still seems almost incapable of taking pull-up jumpers moving to his right ( though he is at least willing to attempt them on occasion this year — a positive step in his development ) ; the ones he takes moving left still occasionally look disjointed ; he doesn ’ t have particularly good touch off the glass ; and he is prone to forcing floater attempts that aren ’ t really there .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ been a positive on-court force for the Pelicans this season .
New Orleans was 3.7 points better per 100 possessions with him in the game than on the sideline prior to the hiatus , the fourth-best mark among the team ’ s rotation players .
The Pellies didn ’ t just pass more often and more efficiently with Ball in the game , they rebounded and defended better as well — with Ball himself contributing greatly to those advantages .
He ’ s a fantastic rebounder , among the very best in the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 142 guards who were on the floor for at least 1,000 missed shots prior to the hiatus , Ball ’ s total rebound rate was 14th-best , and he was 10th-best at converting his rebound chances into actual rebounds more often than expected , given his and his man ’ s positioning at the time of the shot and the location of the rebound itself .
His basketball IQ really shines through on defense , where he can showcase his instincts and knowledge of opposing teams ’ sets .
He ’ s rarely @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s quick to make the correct rotation , and he ’ s among the league leaders in deflections .
It ’ s still too early to say that Ball is now fulfilling the entirety of the promise he showed as a prospect .
He has struggled badly from the field during the restart , and in the Pelicans ’ first two games , they struggled badly when he was on the floor .
It ’ s probably not an accident that his most impactful game was their most recent one — when Williamson @ @ @ @ @ @ @ We need to see his improved play carry over through the restart and into next season before declaring that he ’ s really arrived .
But he ’ s on his way , and if he can sustain this progress , he ’ ll help the team ’ s cornerstone player fulfill every inch of his potential as well .
That ’ s a very valuable thing .

The New Orleans Pelicans were always bound to be one of this season’s most fascinating teams. The Pellies had already been preparing for a big change when they got lucky in the lottery and landed the No. 1 overall pick in the 2019 NBA draft. The fortuitous bounce of the pingpong balls allowed them to leverage one foundational superstar (Anthony Davis) to acquire assets that could be used to build a younger, deeper, better supporting cast around a new one (Zion Williamson).
In making a number of moves last summer, including Davis’s trade to the Lakers, David Griffin did exactly that. The team’s executive vice president for basketball operations turned Davis, Solomon Hill and a late second-round pick into a collection of assets that included the No. 4 selection in the 2019 draft, De’Andre Hunter, which he then swapped for Jaxson Hayes, Nickeil Alexander-Walker and Marcos Louzada Silva (the Nos. 8, 17 and 35 picks), as well as a future pick courtesy of the Cavaliers. He also secured outright or swap rights to not one, not two, but three of the Lakers’ future first-round selections — and that’s on top of the acquisition of three of the Lakers’ five most recent first-rounders: Brandon Ingram, Josh Hart and Lonzo Ball.
Williamson predictably lit up the preseason, only to suffer an injury that delayed his debut until January. In his absence, Ingram blossomed into exactly the kind of player the Lakers envisioned when they made him the No. 2 overall pick in 2016. Returning from a blood clot in his arm that forced him to miss the end of last season, Ingram played 39 of the 43 games Williamson missed prior to his debut, averaging 25.6 points, 6.7 rebounds and 4.4 assists per game with a 48-40-86 shooting line. Meanwhile, Hart solidified himself as a valuable role player, knocking down a respectable percentage of his catch-and-shoot treys and defending four positions.
And then there’s Ball. Early on, he just didn’t seem to fit in. He was alternately starting and coming off the bench, and whether it was his role or his confidence or something else entirely, things just … weren’t clicking. After reworking his form in the offseason, Ball was more willing to shoot than he had been in the past, but he still wasn’t connecting very often. Through the team’s Christmas Day game against the Nuggets, he was shooting just 37.4 percent from the field and 33.3 percent from deep.
Beginning with a back-to-back against the Pacers and Rockets a few nights later, though, the light went on. Ball connected on 11 of 20 threes in those two games, which the Pellies won by a combined 37 points. He collected his first triple-double of the season (his first in over a year) in the win over the Rockets (who were missing James Harden and Russell Westbrook), and he would collect two more in the coming weeks, doubling his career total in the process.
During the 12 games beginning with that win over Indiana and ending with the final contest of Williamson’s injury-related absence, Ball found his rhythm, averaging 16.0 points, 7.4 rebounds and 8.4 assists a night while knocking down nearly 39 percent of his attempts from beyond the arc. Williamson debuted on Jan. 22, and while Ball’s usage rate (and, thus, scoring average) subsequently dipped, his efficiency spiked: In the 20 games following Zion’s return to the floor, Ball posted a 59.4 effective field-goal percentage — up from 51.4 in the preceding 12-game stretch and a wretched 46.9 through Christmas.
His assist rate jumped more than 2 percentage points upon Zion’s return as well. Ball and Williamson have spectacular chemistry — especially in the open floor, where each of them is at his best. Ball excels at throwing long-range passes, whether they be outlets or hit-aheads. According to STATS LLC data provided to FiveThirtyEight, the percentage of Ball’s passes that traveled at least 20 feet in the air was fifth-highest among 316 qualified players, behind only LeBron James, James Harden, New Orleans teammate Jrue Holiday and DeMar DeRozan. And among the 25 players who threw at least 1,000 such passes, Lonzo’s moved at the fourth-fastest average speed (27.71 mph).
Even more than speed or volume, though, the most impressive thing about Ball’s home-run passes is the accuracy. He seems to know instinctively where to place the ball so that only his intended target can reach it, and he gets it there with Drew Brees-like precision.
Once he returned to the fold, Williamson became the most frequent intended target of these long-distance lasers, and he and Ball began hunting lob opportunities on the regular. Prior to the season’s interruption, only 24 pairs of teammates connected on 15-plus lobs, according to Second Spectrum. Between Williamson’s Jan. 22 debut and the beginning of the hiatus, just four other pairs of teammates joined Lonzo and Zion in reaching that mark.
Lonzo is just as willing and insightful a passer within the flow of the offense. His genius-level floor vision and potential to be a transformative passer were his main selling points as a prospect, even going back to his days as a high-schooler. He’s always seeking out the opportunity to make the extra pass — to turn an open shot for himself into a wide-open one for somebody else.
That kind of unselfishness is infectious, and it carries over to the rest of the team: Prior to the hiatus, 67.1 percent of Pelican baskets were assisted with Ball on the floor, compared to only 58 percent when he was on the bench. New Orleans also threw an extra 14 passes per 100 possessions with Lonzo in the game over when he was out.
There are, however, times where he is arguably too unselfish. Overeager passing fuels his turnover habit, with the significant majority of his giveaways coming on bad passes. He also still struggles to convert his looks from anywhere other than the immediate area around the rim or beyond the arc: Among 174 players who attempted at least 125 shots outside the restricted area but inside the 3-point line prior to the hiatus, Ball ranked 170th in effective field-goal percentage, per Second Spectrum, underperforming expectations on those attempts by 9.51 percentage points.
Though he’s ironed out his form a bit thanks to extensive work with Pelicans assistant coach Fred Vinson, he still seems almost incapable of taking pull-up jumpers moving to his right (though he is at least willing to attempt them on occasion this year — a positive step in his development); the ones he takes moving left still occasionally look disjointed; he doesn’t have particularly good touch off the glass; and he is prone to forcing floater attempts that aren’t really there.
Despite those deficiencies, Ball has still been a positive on-court force for the Pelicans this season. New Orleans was 3.7 points better per 100 possessions with him in the game than on the sideline prior to the hiatus, the fourth-best mark among the team’s rotation players. The Pellies didn’t just pass more often and more efficiently with Ball in the game, they rebounded and defended better as well — with Ball himself contributing greatly to those advantages.
He’s a fantastic rebounder, among the very best in the league for a guard. Among the 142 guards who were on the floor for at least 1,000 missed shots prior to the hiatus, Ball’s total rebound rate was 14th-best, and he was 10th-best at converting his rebound chances into actual rebounds more often than expected, given his and his man’s positioning at the time of the shot and the location of the rebound itself.
His basketball IQ really shines through on defense, where he can showcase his instincts and knowledge of opposing teams’ sets. He’s rarely in the wrong position, he’s quick to make the correct rotation, and he’s among the league leaders in deflections.
It’s still too early to say that Ball is now fulfilling the entirety of the promise he showed as a prospect. He has struggled badly from the field during the restart, and in the Pelicans’ first two games, they struggled badly when he was on the floor. It’s probably not an accident that his most impactful game was their most recent one — when Williamson saw his most extended playing time. We need to see his improved play carry over through the restart and into next season before declaring that he’s really arrived. But he’s on his way, and if he can sustain this progress, he’ll help the team’s cornerstone player fulfill every inch of his potential as well. That’s a very valuable thing.
Check out our latest NBA predictions.


fivethirthyeight--2020-08-07--Trump Wants To Postpone The Election, But Americans Really Don’t

Welcome to Pollapalooza , our weekly polling roundup .
Last week , President Trump sparked a firestorm by calling for the postponement of the November election as the country prepares to vote amid the coronavirus pandemic .
And although the president can not actually delay the vote — Congress determines the federal election date — this hasn ’ t stopped Trump from repeatedly casting doubt on the election results and exacerbating Americans ’ already-flagging confidence in the integrity of the electoral process .
But so far , Trump ’ s idea of postponing the election isn ’ t very popular @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that Americans strongly oppose postponing the election , even in the face of a public health crisis .
Reuters/Ipsos found that 66 percent of registered voters opposed a delay , while just 23 percent supported it ( 11 percent weren ’ t sure ) .
The Economist/YouGov found that 66 percent of adults opposed postponement , compared to just 15 percent who backed it ( 19 percent weren ’ t sure ) .
Politico/Morning Consult also asked voters how they felt about delaying the election , giving them three choices : Postpone the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ but with mostly in-person voting , or hold the election as scheduled but with most Americans voting by mail .
It also found that most opposed postponing : Just 7 percent backed delaying the election , down from 16 percent in April when the pollster last asked about this , while 86 percent of respondents said the election should stay on schedule , one way or another .
However , as with most issues in American politics , there were notable partisan splits , although the polls disagreed as to just how far @ @ @ @ @ @ @ issue .
In the Reuters/Ipsos poll , for instance , 79 percent of Democrats opposed a delay compared to only 51 percent of Republicans .
Whereas in that Economist/YouGov poll , the gap was smaller : Seventy-seven percent of Democrats opposed a delay , versus 59 percent of Republicans .
Politico/Morning Consult found an even smaller partisan divide , with 93 percent of Democrats saying the election should be held as scheduled , compared to 82 percent of Republicans .
It ’ s worth noting that the Politico/Morning Consult survey offered respondents three @ @ @ @ @ @ @ partisan breakdown to some extent , as some Republicans might prefer postponement to a largely vote-by-mail election .
Americans were also split on Trump ’ s motivation for suggesting a delay to the election .
Among Republicans in that Reuters/Ipsos poll , 41 percent said Trump ’ s tweet was driven by a fear of voter fraud , and 21 percent said Trump wanted to protect Americans from getting the coronavirus at polling places .
Only 17 percent of Republicans said he was trying to either distract the country from the pandemic or @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ( another 16 percent weren ’ t sure of his motivations ) .
Conversely , a whopping 63 percent of Democrats said Trump wanted a delay to the election to improve his chances of winning , while another 19 percent thought he wanted to distract the country .
Just 10 percent of Democrats thought Trump ’ s main motivation was either a fear of voter fraud or a desire to protect Americans from contracting the virus .
Politico/Morning Consult ’ s question on postponing the election also offered some insight into how respondents @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The share who desired a predominantly vote-by-mail election hadn ’ t really changed since April , but the share who preferred mostly in-person balloting shot up to 34 percent from just 19 percent in the spring — a shift largely driven by Republicans and independents .
Fifty-five percent of Republicans said they wanted most voters to physically go to the polls , up from 32 percent in April , as did 30 percent of independents , a share that had doubled from 15 percent in April .
However , only slightly more Democrats @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in the spring ( 18 percent versus 10 percent ) .
As for mail-in voting , there was one notable development : Fewer Republicans supported it .
The share of Republicans who said they wanted an on-schedule , mostly vote-by-mail election slid from 38 percent in April to 27 percent in August .
And that shift in Republican attitudes in the Politico/Morning Consult survey reveals how Trump ’ s call to postpone the election could gain traction if he keeps trumpeting it .
After all , the president has repeatedly denounced voting by @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ve seen the share of Republicans who want a mostly vote-by-mail election decrease .
For now , though , the thought of postponing the election is very unpopular .
And it probably doesn ’ t help the president that most Republican elites view the idea as a non-starter .
But if the president keeps pushing the issue , don ’ t count out more Republican voters supporting a delay .
• The coronavirus threat has influenced attitudes toward schools reopening , and a poll from Gallup conducted in mid-to-late July found that a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ some form of distance learning for their children .
Thirty-six percent preferred a mixed approach involving some in-person and remote learning , while 28 percent wanted full-time remote learning .
Just 36 percent wanted full-time in-person schooling this fall .
These views represented a major shift from late May and early June , when Gallup found that a majority of parents preferred full-time in-person schooling for their children in the fall .
• Teachers are struggling with how they feel about in-person and distance learning , too .
An NPR/Ipsos poll conducted in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ K-12 teachers preferred fall classes to be remote , while 34 percent preferred a return to in-person learning .
Eighty-two percent of teachers said they ’ re concerned about returning to in-person teaching , but 84 percent also said they ’ re worried that distance learning will cause some students to fall behind .
And only 37 percent said their school district has provided them with enough training to teach in the fall while the pandemic is going on .
• A new survey from NBC News/SurveyMonkey found that Americans trusted Trump significantly @ @ @ @ @ @ @ their state ’ s governor , the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and Dr. Anthony Fauci of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases .
Fifty-eight percent said they don ’ t trust what the president has said about the pandemic , while just 31 percent said they do .
Unsurprisingly , 93 percent of Democrats said they didn ’ t trust what Trump had said about the coronavirus , as did 66 percent of independents .
Meanwhile , 69 percent of Republicans said they trusted what Trump had to say @ @ @ @ @ @ @ said they didn ’ t .
• Gallup recently found that public approval of the U.S. Supreme Court is at its highest level since 2009 .
Overall , 58 percent of Americans approve of the court ’ s job performance , similar to the 61 percent approval it enjoyed 11 years ago .
Attitudes toward the court also differ little by party , as 60 percent of Republicans and 56 percent of Democrats approved of its performance .
This is a stark departure from the partisan differences in public approval of the court @ @ @ @ @ @ @ leagues have had mixed success restarting play in the age of the coronavirus , and a new survey from Morning Consult found that most fans of football — both professional and college — don ’ t think the sport should return as scheduled .
Only 32 percent of NFL fans thought the season should be played as planned , 33 percent said it should be postponed , and 18 percent said it should be canceled ( 17 percent weren ’ t sure ) .
College football fans were even more pessimistic : Just @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ahead as planned , 34 percent said it should be postponed , and 24 percent preferred cancellation .
• The social media platform TikTok could be banned by the U.S. government , so YouGov polled Americans about how they viewed a potential ban .
The survey found that 35 percent either “ strongly ” or “ somewhat ” supported a ban , while 33 percent either “ somewhat ” or “ strongly ” opposed one .
Another 15 percent said they didn ’ t know , and 17 percent said they were unfamiliar @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of 25 — the app ’ s most active users — were most likely to oppose a ban : Forty-four percent opposed a ban , while 34 percent supported one .
According to FiveThirtyEight ’ s presidential approval tracker , 41.3 percent of Americans approve of the job Trump is doing as president , while 54.7 percent disapprove ( a net approval rating of -13.5 points ) .
At this time last week , 40.6 percent approved and 55.1 percent disapproved ( a net approval rating of -14.5 points ) .
One month @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of 40.7 percent and a disapproval rating of 55.9 percent , for a net approval rating of -15.2 points .
In our average of polls of the generic congressional ballot , Democrats currently lead by 7.8 percentage points ( 48.2 percent to 40.5 percent ) .
A week ago , Democrats led Republicans by 8.3 points ( 49.1 percent to 40.8 percent ) .
At this time last month , voters preferred Democrats by 8.8 points ( 49.2 percent to 40.4 percent ) .

Welcome to Pollapalooza, our weekly polling roundup.
Poll(s) of the week
Last week, President Trump sparked a firestorm by calling for the postponement of the November election as the country prepares to vote amid the coronavirus pandemic. And although the president cannot actually delay the vote — Congress determines the federal election date — this hasn’t stopped Trump from repeatedly casting doubt on the election results and exacerbating Americans’ already-flagging confidence in the integrity of the electoral process.
But so far, Trump’s idea of postponing the election isn’t very popular. Three new polls this week found that Americans strongly oppose postponing the election, even in the face of a public health crisis. Reuters/Ipsos found that 66 percent of registered voters opposed a delay, while just 23 percent supported it (11 percent weren’t sure). The Economist/YouGov found that 66 percent of adults opposed postponement, compared to just 15 percent who backed it (19 percent weren’t sure). Politico/Morning Consult also asked voters how they felt about delaying the election, giving them three choices: Postpone the election, hold the election as scheduled but with mostly in-person voting, or hold the election as scheduled but with most Americans voting by mail. It also found that most opposed postponing: Just 7 percent backed delaying the election, down from 16 percent in April when the pollster last asked about this, while 86 percent of respondents said the election should stay on schedule, one way or another.
However, as with most issues in American politics, there were notable partisan splits, although the polls disagreed as to just how far apart Democrats and Republicans were on the issue. In the Reuters/Ipsos poll, for instance, 79 percent of Democrats opposed a delay compared to only 51 percent of Republicans. Whereas in that Economist/YouGov poll, the gap was smaller: Seventy-seven percent of Democrats opposed a delay, versus 59 percent of Republicans. Politico/Morning Consult found an even smaller partisan divide, with 93 percent of Democrats saying the election should be held as scheduled, compared to 82 percent of Republicans. It’s worth noting that the Politico/Morning Consult survey offered respondents three options, which might have affected the partisan breakdown to some extent, as some Republicans might prefer postponement to a largely vote-by-mail election.
Americans were also split on Trump’s motivation for suggesting a delay to the election. Among Republicans in that Reuters/Ipsos poll, 41 percent said Trump’s tweet was driven by a fear of voter fraud, and 21 percent said Trump wanted to protect Americans from getting the coronavirus at polling places. Only 17 percent of Republicans said he was trying to either distract the country from the pandemic or give himself a better shot at victory (another 16 percent weren’t sure of his motivations). Conversely, a whopping 63 percent of Democrats said Trump wanted a delay to the election to improve his chances of winning, while another 19 percent thought he wanted to distract the country. Just 10 percent of Democrats thought Trump’s main motivation was either a fear of voter fraud or a desire to protect Americans from contracting the virus.
Politico/Morning Consult’s question on postponing the election also offered some insight into how respondents want Americans to cast their ballots. The share who desired a predominantly vote-by-mail election hadn’t really changed since April, but the share who preferred mostly in-person balloting shot up to 34 percent from just 19 percent in the spring — a shift largely driven by Republicans and independents. Fifty-five percent of Republicans said they wanted most voters to physically go to the polls, up from 32 percent in April, as did 30 percent of independents, a share that had doubled from 15 percent in April. However, only slightly more Democrats wanted mostly in-person voting than they did in the spring (18 percent versus 10 percent). As for mail-in voting, there was one notable development: Fewer Republicans supported it. The share of Republicans who said they wanted an on-schedule, mostly vote-by-mail election slid from 38 percent in April to 27 percent in August.
And that shift in Republican attitudes in the Politico/Morning Consult survey reveals how Trump’s call to postpone the election could gain traction if he keeps trumpeting it. After all, the president has repeatedly denounced voting by mail, and correspondingly, we’ve seen the share of Republicans who want a mostly vote-by-mail election decrease.
For now, though, the thought of postponing the election is very unpopular. And it probably doesn’t help the president that most Republican elites view the idea as a non-starter. But if the president keeps pushing the issue, don’t count out more Republican voters supporting a delay.
Other polling bites
Trump approval
According to FiveThirtyEight’s presidential approval tracker, 41.3 percent of Americans approve of the job Trump is doing as president, while 54.7 percent disapprove (a net approval rating of -13.5 points). At this time last week, 40.6 percent approved and 55.1 percent disapproved (a net approval rating of -14.5 points). One month ago, Trump had an approval rating of 40.7 percent and a disapproval rating of 55.9 percent, for a net approval rating of -15.2 points.
Generic ballot
In our average of polls of the generic congressional ballot, Democrats currently lead by 7.8 percentage points (48.2 percent to 40.5 percent). A week ago, Democrats led Republicans by 8.3 points (49.1 percent to 40.8 percent). At this time last month, voters preferred Democrats by 8.8 points (49.2 percent to 40.4 percent).


fivethirthyeight--2020-08-07--Yes, Unemployment Fell. But The Recovery Seems To Be Slowing Down.

After three straight months of declining unemployment , we have only just returned to levels of unemployment that rival the depths of the Great Recession .
Friday ’ s jobs report revealed that the unemployment rate dropped from 11.1 percent in June to 10.2 percent in July , and 1.8 million more people were employed in July than in June .
So the economic recovery is continuing — but it ’ s moving very slowly , and we aren ’ t close to being out of the woods .
Still , this report could have been much worse .
After @ @ @ @ @ @ @ bit in July after falling for 15 straight weeks since late March .
And across the country , phased reopenings have been rolled back over the past month as the number of COVID-19 infections spiked , preventing more workers from coming back to their jobs .
But the unemployment rate isn ’ t exactly dropping at the rate you ’ d expect for an economy that ’ s roaring back to life : The improvement from June to July was less than half as large as the one from May to June .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ is slowing , that means the recovery could be long and painful — particularly if Congress , which is currently deadlocked over the next round of coronavirus relief , cuts back on the aid it ’ s been pouring into the economy since March .
The economy has now regained about 9 million jobs since April , at which point more than 21 million jobs were lost .
The unemployment rate has also fallen substantially from an official peak of 14.7 percent in April — which in reality was likely closer to 20 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on one of the surveys used to produce the jobs report that the Bureau of Labor Statistics now seems to have mostly under control .
One clear message of this month ’ s jobs report is that the recent uptick in nationwide COVID-19 infections doesn ’ t seem to be reversing the economic recovery .
That runs somewhat contrary to the mixed economic signals we ’ ve been getting over the past few weeks : In addition to rising weekly unemployment claims , GDP growth was historically dismal for the second quarter of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of 32.9 percent .
That , combined with a report from the payroll processing company ADP which showed a substantial slowdown in hiring in July , was enough to spur speculation that the economy might already be backsliding , as gains in consumer spending stalled and businesses across the country were forced to scale back operations only a few weeks after states ’ phased reopenings went into effect .
And according to the U.S. Census Bureau ’ s weekly pulse survey , the share of people who expected someone in their household to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ percent in early June to 35 percent in early July , after having dropped each week from the beginning of May .
That seemed like it might be a leading indicator for unemployment , since it ’ s measuring anxiety in the workforce before actual job losses occur .
But although those trends might seem at odds with the data in today ’ s report , they ’ re a much more imperfect gauge of the state of the economy .
Though they come out much more frequently than the monthly jobs report @ @ @ @ @ @ @ reflective of job losses as they ’ re happening .
It ’ s possible that some of the fluctuations in weekly claims aren ’ t that meaningful at this point , since the numbers are so huge .
Meanwhile , not all of the real-time economic data we ’ ve seen recently has been bad .
For instance , data from job-search websites such as Indeed shows that job postings have steadily trended upwards since dropping massively in April .
At the beginning of May , job postings were down nearly 40 percent @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , but are now down just 18 percent compared with last year .
We ’ d expect that improvement to be associated with a decrease in unemployment rate since May — particularly since the gains in postings have been almost uniformly steady .
As you dive deeper into this month ’ s report , some surprising trends emerge .
Since it ’ s Friday , we ’ ll start with the good news first : permanent layoffs didn ’ t grow substantially and more people who lost their jobs temporarily seem to be @ @ @ @ @ @ @ percent of jobless workers were on temporary layoff while 24 percent had lost their jobs permanently .
That ’ s slightly higher than in June , when 21 percent of layoffs were permanent , and much higher than the 10 percent share in April .
But on the whole , permanent unemployment didn ’ t increase — a promising sign , since it ’ s much harder for workers to get back into the labor force if their former employer has cut ties with them completely .
In terms of industries , all @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ve been tracking throughout the recovery continued to gain jobs in July : These are encouraging numbers for some of the areas hit hardest by coronavirus-related shutdowns in the spring , though we should remember that none of them are close to regaining their pre-crisis employment levels .
Leisure and hospitality , for instance , is still down 4.3 million total jobs over the past six months , despite the huge recent gains .
And as infections remain at dangerously high levels across the country , it could be increasingly difficult for bars @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in this category to continue their rapid employment gains .
And while state and local governments gained nearly 300,000 jobs last month as well , it could be mostly a mirage .
Almost all of those gains were in education , and that ’ s where we may run into problems with the way the BLS ’ s seasonal adjustments — which follow the ebb and flow of employment under normal circumstances — account for monthly changes .
The issue this month is that many teachers were laid off earlier than usual this @ @ @ @ @ @ @ July ’ s jobs numbers .
Women — who have been hit harder than men during this recession — did see some substantial gains this month .
Their unemployment rate fell from 11.7 percent in June to 10.6 percent in July .
The unemployment rate for Hispanic or Latino workers , which hit a peak of nearly 19 percent in April , was at 12.9 percent this month , too — which is a big improvement .
But while nearly every demographic group saw its economic prospects improve in July , some of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ left behind .
There was barely any improvement ( less than a percentage point ) in the unemployment rate for Black workers , which is still the highest of any racial and ethnic group , at 14.6 percent .
Black or African American women have experienced a particularly slow drop in unemployment ; July saw their unemployment rate fall by only 0.6 percentage points .
And all of these gains were made possible — at least in part — by the enormous amount of money the federal government has pumped into the economy @ @ @ @ @ @ @ already starting to expire .
For instance , people kept spending money , despite high levels of unemployment , because the federal government was keeping jobless workers afloat with an additional $ 600 per week in benefits .
No one is getting that $ 600 payment right now , though , since it expired at the end of July and Congress is still deadlocked over whether to extend it .
And without more stimulus money to buoy consumer spending — not to mention additional funds from a federal program that ’ s helped @ @ @ @ @ @ @ onto their payrolls — businesses could struggle in the future to keep workers on the job .
Meanwhile , Nick Bunker , the director of economic research for North America at the Indeed Hiring Lab , a research institute connected to the job-search site Indeed , pointed out that so far , we ’ re not seeing anything close to a v-shaped recovery , which some of President Trump ’ s advisers have continued to confidently predict .
“ It ’ s important to remember that this is where we are after several @ @ @ @ @ @ @ amount of fiscal stimulus , ” Bunker said .
But further gains will be more and more difficult , especially if an increasing number of temporary layoffs become permanent .
If anything , he said , the falling unemployment rate is a sign that the government ’ s investment in the economy is working — not that it ’ s time to turn off the money tap .
“ No one should be thinking ‘ mission accomplished ’ right now , ” Bunker said .

After three straight months of declining unemployment, we have only just returned to levels of unemployment that rival the depths of the Great Recession. Friday’s jobs report revealed that the unemployment rate dropped from 11.1 percent in June to 10.2 percent in July, and 1.8 million more people were employed in July than in June.
So the economic recovery is continuing — but it’s moving very slowly, and we aren’t close to being out of the woods. Still, this report could have been much worse. After all, weekly unemployment claims rose a bit in July after falling for 15 straight weeks since late March. And across the country, phased reopenings have been rolled back over the past month as the number of COVID-19 infections spiked, preventing more workers from coming back to their jobs.
But the unemployment rate isn’t exactly dropping at the rate you’d expect for an economy that’s roaring back to life: The improvement from June to July was less than half as large as the one from May to June. And if the economy’s momentum is slowing, that means the recovery could be long and painful — particularly if Congress, which is currently deadlocked over the next round of coronavirus relief, cuts back on the aid it’s been pouring into the economy since March.
The economy has now regained about 9 million jobs since April, at which point more than 21 million jobs were lost. The unemployment rate has also fallen substantially from an official peak of 14.7 percent in April — which in reality was likely closer to 20 percent, thanks to a misclassification error on one of the surveys used to produce the jobs report that the Bureau of Labor Statistics now seems to have mostly under control.
One clear message of this month’s jobs report is that the recent uptick in nationwide COVID-19 infections doesn’t seem to be reversing the economic recovery. That runs somewhat contrary to the mixed economic signals we’ve been getting over the past few weeks: In addition to rising weekly unemployment claims, GDP growth was historically dismal for the second quarter of the year — down an annualized rate of 32.9 percent. That, combined with a report from the payroll processing company ADP which showed a substantial slowdown in hiring in July, was enough to spur speculation that the economy might already be backsliding, as gains in consumer spending stalled and businesses across the country were forced to scale back operations only a few weeks after states’ phased reopenings went into effect.
And according to the U.S. Census Bureau’s weekly pulse survey, the share of people who expected someone in their household to lose employment income rose from under 32 percent in early June to 35 percent in early July, after having dropped each week from the beginning of May. That seemed like it might be a leading indicator for unemployment, since it’s measuring anxiety in the workforce before actual job losses occur.
But although those trends might seem at odds with the data in today’s report, they’re a much more imperfect gauge of the state of the economy. Though they come out much more frequently than the monthly jobs report, weekly claims aren’t necessarily reflective of job losses as they’re happening. It’s possible that some of the fluctuations in weekly claims aren’t that meaningful at this point, since the numbers are so huge.
Meanwhile, not all of the real-time economic data we’ve seen recently has been bad. For instance, data from job-search websites such as Indeed shows that job postings have steadily trended upwards since dropping massively in April. At the beginning of May, job postings were down nearly 40 percent relative to the same week in 2019, but are now down just 18 percent compared with last year. We’d expect that improvement to be associated with a decrease in unemployment rate since May — particularly since the gains in postings have been almost uniformly steady.
As you dive deeper into this month’s report, some surprising trends emerge. Since it’s Friday, we’ll start with the good news first: permanent layoffs didn’t grow substantially and more people who lost their jobs temporarily seem to be finding work. In July, 76 percent of jobless workers were on temporary layoff while 24 percent had lost their jobs permanently. That’s slightly higher than in June, when 21 percent of layoffs were permanent, and much higher than the 10 percent share in April. But on the whole, permanent unemployment didn’t increase — a promising sign, since it’s much harder for workers to get back into the labor force if their former employer has cut ties with them completely.
In terms of industries, all of the major economic sectors we’ve been tracking throughout the recovery continued to gain jobs in July:
Jobs still haven’t caught up to pre-crisis levels yet Net change in total employment over various time frames, by sector Net Change In Employment Over Last… Industry sector 1 Month 3 Months 6 Months Construction +20,000 +639,000 -398,000 Education and health services +215,000 +1,170,000 -1,559,000 Leisure and hospitality +592,000 +3,978,000 -4,281,000 Professional and business services +170,000 +648,000 -1,621,000 Retail trade +258,300 +1,471,100 -910,300 Transportation and warehousing +37,900 +99,800 -470,300 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
These are encouraging numbers for some of the areas hit hardest by coronavirus-related shutdowns in the spring, though we should remember that none of them are close to regaining their pre-crisis employment levels. Leisure and hospitality, for instance, is still down 4.3 million total jobs over the past six months, despite the huge recent gains. And as infections remain at dangerously high levels across the country, it could be increasingly difficult for bars, restaurants, hotels and other businesses in this category to continue their rapid employment gains.
And while state and local governments gained nearly 300,000 jobs last month as well, it could be mostly a mirage. Almost all of those gains were in education, and that’s where we may run into problems with the way the BLS’s seasonal adjustments — which follow the ebb and flow of employment under normal circumstances — account for monthly changes. The issue this month is that many teachers were laid off earlier than usual this summer, which may have artificially inflated July’s jobs numbers.
Women — who have been hit harder than men during this recession — did see some substantial gains this month. Their unemployment rate fell from 11.7 percent in June to 10.6 percent in July. The unemployment rate for Hispanic or Latino workers, which hit a peak of nearly 19 percent in April, was at 12.9 percent this month, too — which is a big improvement.
But while nearly every demographic group saw its economic prospects improve in July, some of the most vulnerable workers are still being left behind. There was barely any improvement (less than a percentage point) in the unemployment rate for Black workers, which is still the highest of any racial and ethnic group, at 14.6 percent. Black or African American women have experienced a particularly slow drop in unemployment; July saw their unemployment rate fall by only 0.6 percentage points.
And all of these gains were made possible — at least in part — by the enormous amount of money the federal government has pumped into the economy since March, some of which is already starting to expire. For instance, people kept spending money, despite high levels of unemployment, because the federal government was keeping jobless workers afloat with an additional $600 per week in benefits. No one is getting that $600 payment right now, though, since it expired at the end of July and Congress is still deadlocked over whether to extend it. And without more stimulus money to buoy consumer spending — not to mention additional funds from a federal program that’s helped small businesses keep or bring workers back onto their payrolls — businesses could struggle in the future to keep workers on the job.
Meanwhile, Nick Bunker, the director of economic research for North America at the Indeed Hiring Lab, a research institute connected to the job-search site Indeed, pointed out that so far, we’re not seeing anything close to a v-shaped recovery, which some of President Trump’s advisers have continued to confidently predict.
“It’s important to remember that this is where we are after several months of bounce back and an unprecedented amount of fiscal stimulus,” Bunker said. But further gains will be more and more difficult, especially if an increasing number of temporary layoffs become permanent.
If anything, he said, the falling unemployment rate is a sign that the government’s investment in the economy is working — not that it’s time to turn off the money tap. “No one should be thinking ‘mission accomplished’ right now,” Bunker said.


fivethirthyeight--2020-08-07--We’re Hiring A Part-Time Video And Motion Graphics Producer

FiveThirtyEight is seeking a part-time video and motion graphics producer to help us create weekly political videos to enhance our election coverage .
The producer should be available to work up to 29 hours a week during U.S. East Coast hours .
This job can be done remotely regardless of the status of the pandemic .
The producer ’ s main role will be to create videos based on FiveThirtyEight ’ s 2020 Election Forecast .
Our forecast shows the chances each candidate has of winning the election in November , and is rich with material we ’ d like @ @ @ @ @ @ @ should feel comfortable editing short interviews with FiveThirtyEight reporters , creating original motion graphics and animations , and working with our existing graphics packages and design elements .
While this is a part-time role , the producer would be wholly integrated into the FiveThirtyEight team as a full-fledged member of our newsroom .
When not creating forecast videos , the producer is encouraged to pitch original ideas and work with reporters and visual journalists to bring new stories to life .
The video and motion graphics producer will report to the senior video @ @ @ @ @ @ @ team and art director ( though , as FiveThirtyEight is a small newsroom , there will be opportunities to collaborate with many staffers in other departments as well ) .
Being able to leverage our existing forecast graphics and present them in fun , accessible ways to a video audience is a big part of the role .
As such , the producer should have experience working with Adobe Illustrator and After Effects , as well as Photoshop to integrate branding from our design team .
We work in Adobe Premiere for video @ @ @ @ @ @ @ about editing software .
We care more about whether you are detail-oriented , can work on a deadline , and have a good narrative sense .
Experience working in a newsroom , especially on political stories , is a plus .
While the role will be focused on election coverage in the beginning , the focus will shift to our other beats — politics more generally , sports , and science — after the election .
We ’ re looking for someone with : • Experience animating graphics packages and creating motion graphics @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , and After Effects • An interest in and familiarity with U.S. electoral politics • Political reporting , particularly reporting on an election To apply , please send your resume , a cover letter and links to two samples of your work to Anna.Rothschild @ abc.com with “ Video and Motion Graphics Producer ” in the subject line .
We look forward to hearing from you !

FiveThirtyEight is seeking a part-time video and motion graphics producer to help us create weekly political videos to enhance our election coverage. The producer should be available to work up to 29 hours a week during U.S. East Coast hours. This job can be done remotely regardless of the status of the pandemic.
The producer’s main role will be to create videos based on FiveThirtyEight’s 2020 Election Forecast. Our forecast shows the chances each candidate has of winning the election in November, and is rich with material we’d like to make into videos. The producer should feel comfortable editing short interviews with FiveThirtyEight reporters, creating original motion graphics and animations, and working with our existing graphics packages and design elements. While this is a part-time role, the producer would be wholly integrated into the FiveThirtyEight team as a full-fledged member of our newsroom. When not creating forecast videos, the producer is encouraged to pitch original ideas and work with reporters and visual journalists to bring new stories to life. The video and motion graphics producer will report to the senior video producer and work closely with the video team and art director (though, as FiveThirtyEight is a small newsroom, there will be opportunities to collaborate with many staffers in other departments as well).
Being able to leverage our existing forecast graphics and present them in fun, accessible ways to a video audience is a big part of the role. As such, the producer should have experience working with Adobe Illustrator and After Effects, as well as Photoshop to integrate branding from our design team. We work in Adobe Premiere for video editing, but we are not picky about editing software. We care more about whether you are detail-oriented, can work on a deadline, and have a good narrative sense. Experience working in a newsroom, especially on political stories, is a plus.
While the role will be focused on election coverage in the beginning, the focus will shift to our other beats — politics more generally, sports, and science — after the election.
We’re looking for someone with:
Experience animating graphics packages and creating motion graphics and animations using Adobe Illustrator, Photoshop, and After Effects
Fluency in Adobe Premiere or equivalent software
Experience editing videos on a tight deadline (e.g., in a breaking-news setting)
An interest in and familiarity with U.S. electoral politics
Bonus skills:
Newsroom experience
Political reporting, particularly reporting on an election
Script writing
To apply, please send your resume, a cover letter and links to two samples of your work to Anna.Rothschild@abc.com with “Video and Motion Graphics Producer” in the subject line. We look forward to hearing from you!


fivethirthyeight--2020-08-07--Bad Teams May Be Posing As Good Teams In A 60-Game Baseball Season

From COVID-19 outbreaks within the Miami Marlins and St. Louis Cardinals clubhouses to rescheduled games , nomadic teams , impossible occurrences and almost every team still hunting for a playoff spot , the 2020 Major League Baseball season is already off to a pretty chaotic start .
Just as weird , though , could be the things we ’ ll never even know about this season .
Although we noted that a 60-game season wouldn ’ t offer much less certainty than a 162-game campaign usually does , it ’ s also true that a sample of 60 games can @ @ @ @ @ @ @ actually is .
In fact , there are plenty of cases from throughout history in which 60 games were highly unrepresentative of how a team played over its other 102 games — 102 games that , this season , we ’ ll never actually get to see .
For instance , in 1977 the Chicago Cubs had a 60-game stretch in which they went 43-17 , a record that will probably resemble what the best team in baseball produces this season .
Based on this , you might think they had a strong @ @ @ @ @ @ @ they just played .500 ball over their other 102 games , that ’ s a 94-win season .
But no : They went 38-64 in those other games , landing their full-season record at just 81-81 despite the scorching 60-game stretch .
That differential in winning percentage — more than 34 points between their best 60 games and the rest of the schedule — is the largest gap in MLB history : More recently , a couple of Los Angeles Dodger teams have wrapped scorching 60-game runs inside of otherwise mediocre years .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ on pace for a paltry 71 wins over 162 games ) outside of its best 60 games … but it went 47-13 during that hot streak , allowing it to finish with 92 wins despite subpar play for the majority of the season .
It happened again four years later , when the Dodgers went an unbelievable 51-9 in their best 60 games — the third-greatest 60-game stretch in the history of baseball , in fact — but were barely better than .500 ( 53-49 ) in their other 102 games .
And @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 37 wins in a stretch of 60 early season contests , which helped them climb to six games over .500 after a dreadful 3-12 start .
But from that point onward they went 31-57 , eventually finishing a distant fourth in the NL West with a 71-91 record .
Outside of the 37-23 run , the Rockies went 34-68 — a difference worth 28 points of winning percentage .
The 2017 Dodgers ended up nearly winning the World Series , so it ’ s safe to say their hot 60 games were pretty @ @ @ @ @ @ @ be .
But all of this also illustrates how streaky baseball can be , how much luck 2020 ’ s teams will need in order to be in top form when the games are actually played — and how , even if a team has a good 60 games , we ’ ll never really know whether that would have carried over to the rest of the season .
At the opposite end of the spectrum are teams that had terrible 60-game stretches totally uncharacteristic of the rest of their season .
Consider @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ; they started the season on a 20-3 streak only to go 21-39 over the next 60 games before ending the season with a 50-29 run .
That seesaw season still gave the Brewers 91 wins in total , but their bad 60-game stretch — with a winning percentage 34 points below what they had in their other games — ultimately cost them a playoff spot .
It did , though , earn them a place in baseball history : By definition , there ’ s some overlap with our earlier list — @ @ @ @ @ @ @ tragic , filled with stories of teams that were better over larger samples of games but whose hopes were undone by a couple of cold months .
The 2018 New York Mets are a good recent example .
When they started the year 14-5 , hopes were high the team could reclaim its World Series form of just a few seasons earlier .
Instead , they promptly rattled off an 18-42 stretch over the next 60 games , falling well out of the NL East race before a 45-38 finish brought their final @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Take out the bad 60 games , replace them with just about anything else , and the Mets might have won the division .
But some of these teams also survived bad 60-game stretches to make some noise in the playoffs .
Speaking of the Mets , the 2016 San Francisco Giants beat New York at Citi Field in the playoffs after weathering a terrible 22-38 sequence down the stretch of the regular season .
The 2004 Houston Astros overcame a 24-36 record in their worst 60 games to finish 92-70 , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Braves and took the St. Louis Cardinals to seven games in the NLCS .
Then , the very next year , Houston did it again !
The Astros powered through a rough 23-37 stretch early in the season , returned to the postseason and even made the World Series .
So if a team wins only 23 games this year , who knows ?
It might be hiding World Series talent that would have come out if only the season had been longer .
Certainly , history tells us that plenty of storylines @ @ @ @ @ @ @ — depending on which section of 60 games happens to be the 60 that get played this year .
But in the end , those will be the only data points we have on each of 2020 ’ s teams ( assuming some teams even play that much ) .
Whatever else remains will be left to baseball ’ s department of what-ifs , an office that ’ s sure to be busier than ever in this strange , strange season .
CORRECTION ( Aug. 7 , 2020 , 4:10 p.m. ) : @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a 51-9 record over 60 games by the 2017 Los Angeles Dodgers as the best 60-game stretch in MLB history .
It was the third-greatest behind the 1906 Chicago Cubs and the 1912 New York Giants , who each went 52-8 in 60 games .

From COVID-19 outbreaks within the Miami Marlins and St. Louis Cardinals clubhouses to rescheduled games, nomadic teams, impossible occurrences and almost every team still hunting for a playoff spot, the 2020 Major League Baseball season is already off to a pretty chaotic start.
Just as weird, though, could be the things we’ll never even know about this season. Although we noted that a 60-game season wouldn’t offer much less certainty than a 162-game campaign usually does, it’s also true that a sample of 60 games can be unrepresentative of how good a team actually is. In fact, there are plenty of cases from throughout history in which 60 games were highly unrepresentative of how a team played over its other 102 games — 102 games that, this season, we’ll never actually get to see.
For instance, in 1977 the Chicago Cubs had a 60-game stretch in which they went 43-17, a record that will probably resemble what the best team in baseball produces this season. Based on this, you might think they had a strong season — after all, even if they just played .500 ball over their other 102 games, that’s a 94-win season. But no: They went 38-64 in those other games, landing their full-season record at just 81-81 despite the scorching 60-game stretch. That differential in winning percentage — more than 34 points between their best 60 games and the rest of the schedule — is the largest gap in MLB history:
Baseball’s all-time Jekyll-and-Hyde teams, Part I All-time MLB teams with the largest positive difference in winning percentage between their best 60-game stretch and all other games Best 60 Games Other Games Year Team Games W L Win% W L Win% Diff 1977 Cubs 10-69 43 17 71.7% 38 64 37.3% +34.4 2013 Dodgers 69-128 47 13 78.3 45 57 44.1 +34.2 1997 Phillies 103-162 38 22 63.3 30 72 29.4 +33.9 2017 Dodgers 61-120 51 9 85.0 53 49 52.0 +33.0 2005 Athletics 50-109 45 15 75.0 43 59 42.2 +32.8 2011 Twins 47-106 35 25 58.3 28 74 27.5 +30.9 1988 Angels 55-114 39 21 65.0 36 66 35.3 +29.7 1973 Cardinals 32-91 41 19 68.3 40 62 39.2 +29.1 2012 Pirates 45-104 40 20 66.7 39 63 38.2 +28.4 2019 Rockies 15-74 37 23 61.7 34 68 33.3 +28.3 2010 Orioles 102-161 35 25 58.3 31 71 30.4 +27.9 2000 Astros 94-153 37 23 61.7 35 67 34.3 +27.4 2017 Indians 94-153 48 12 80.0 54 48 52.9 +27.1 2001 Athletics 103-162 48 12 80.0 54 48 52.9 +27.1 2018 Reds 36-95 35 25 58.3 32 70 31.4 +27.0 2004 Devil Rays 33-92 36 24 60.0 34 67 33.7 +26.3 1987 Padres 54-113 34 26 56.7 31 71 30.4 +26.3 2016 Giants 18-77 42 18 70.0 45 57 44.1 +25.9 1983 Brewers 64-123 42 18 70.0 45 57 44.1 +25.9 1979 Dodgers 94-153 39 21 65.0 40 62 39.2 +25.8 2011 Red Sox 38-97 43 17 71.7 47 55 46.1 +25.6 2005 Orioles 6-65 37 23 61.7 37 65 36.3 +25.4 2003 Mariners 11-70 44 16 73.3 49 53 48.0 +25.3 2005 Indians 96-155 44 16 73.3 49 53 48.0 +25.3 1993 Orioles 52-111 41 19 68.3 44 58 43.1 +25.2 Minimum of 100 games played outside of a team’s best 60-game stretch. Sources: FanGraphs, Retrosheet
More recently, a couple of Los Angeles Dodger teams have wrapped scorching 60-game runs inside of otherwise mediocre years. In 2013, L.A. was 45-57 (on pace for a paltry 71 wins over 162 games) outside of its best 60 games … but it went 47-13 during that hot streak, allowing it to finish with 92 wins despite subpar play for the majority of the season. It happened again four years later, when the Dodgers went an unbelievable 51-9 in their best 60 games — the third-greatest 60-game stretch in the history of baseball, in fact — but were barely better than .500 (53-49) in their other 102 games.
And just last year, the Rockies had 37 wins in a stretch of 60 early season contests, which helped them climb to six games over .500 after a dreadful 3-12 start. But from that point onward they went 31-57, eventually finishing a distant fourth in the NL West with a 71-91 record. Outside of the 37-23 run, the Rockies went 34-68 — a difference worth 28 points of winning percentage.
The 2017 Dodgers ended up nearly winning the World Series, so it’s safe to say their hot 60 games were pretty representative of how good they could actually be. But all of this also illustrates how streaky baseball can be, how much luck 2020’s teams will need in order to be in top form when the games are actually played — and how, even if a team has a good 60 games, we’ll never really know whether that would have carried over to the rest of the season.
At the opposite end of the spectrum are teams that had terrible 60-game stretches totally uncharacteristic of the rest of their season. Consider the case of the 1987 Milwaukee Brewers; they started the season on a 20-3 streak only to go 21-39 over the next 60 games before ending the season with a 50-29 run. That seesaw season still gave the Brewers 91 wins in total, but their bad 60-game stretch — with a winning percentage 34 points below what they had in their other games — ultimately cost them a playoff spot. It did, though, earn them a place in baseball history:
Baseball’s all-time Jekyll-and-Hyde teams, Part II All-time MLB teams with the largest negative difference in winning percentage between their worst 60-game stretch and all other games Worst 60 Games Other Games Year Team Games W L Win% W L Win% Diff 1987 Brewers 24-83 21 39 35.0% 70 32 68.6% -33.6 1982 Twins 5-64 11 49 18.3 49 53 48.0 -29.7 1997 Phillies 42-101 14 46 23.3 54 48 52.9 -29.6 1986 Athletics 29-88 17 43 28.3 59 43 57.8 -29.5 2013 Dodgers 10-69 23 37 38.3 69 33 67.6 -29.3 1988 Indians 58-117 18 42 30.0 60 42 58.8 -28.8 2015 Braves 85-144 14 46 23.3 53 49 52.0 -28.6 1973 Cubs 79-138 18 42 30.0 59 42 58.4 -28.4 2018 Mets 20-79 18 42 30.0 59 43 57.8 -27.8 2012 Astros 73-132 10 50 16.7 45 57 44.1 -27.5 2019 Rockies 84-143 16 44 26.7 55 47 53.9 -27.3 2016 Giants 91-150 22 38 36.7 65 37 63.7 -27.1 2012 Indians 87-146 15 45 25.0 53 49 52.0 -27.0 1975 Brewers 97-156 15 45 25.0 53 49 52.0 -27.0 2004 Astros 33-92 24 36 40.0 68 34 66.7 -26.7 1962 Colt .45’s 69-128 14 46 23.3 50 50 50.0 -26.7 1986 Orioles 103-162 17 43 28.3 56 46 54.9 -26.6 1977 Cubs 103-162 20 40 33.3 61 41 59.8 -26.5 2005 Astros 5-64 23 37 38.3 66 36 64.7 -26.4 2009 Reds 47-106 19 41 31.7 59 43 57.8 -26.2 2014 Rangers 69-128 15 45 25.0 52 50 51.0 -26.0 1977 Royals 4-63 28 32 46.7 74 28 72.5 -25.9 1991 Mets 92-151 19 41 31.7 58 43 57.4 -25.8 1962 Indians 66-125 20 40 33.3 60 42 58.8 -25.5 2001 Red Sox 97-156 21 39 35.0 61 40 60.4 -25.4 Minimum of 100 games played outside of a team’s best 60-game stretch. Sources: FanGraphs, Retrosheet
By definition, there’s some overlap with our earlier list — but this one can also be more tragic, filled with stories of teams that were better over larger samples of games but whose hopes were undone by a couple of cold months.
The 2018 New York Mets are a good recent example. When they started the year 14-5, hopes were high the team could reclaim its World Series form of just a few seasons earlier. Instead, they promptly rattled off an 18-42 stretch over the next 60 games, falling well out of the NL East race before a 45-38 finish brought their final record within a few games of .500. Take out the bad 60 games, replace them with just about anything else, and the Mets might have won the division.
But some of these teams also survived bad 60-game stretches to make some noise in the playoffs. Speaking of the Mets, the 2016 San Francisco Giants beat New York at Citi Field in the playoffs after weathering a terrible 22-38 sequence down the stretch of the regular season. The 2004 Houston Astros overcame a 24-36 record in their worst 60 games to finish 92-70, won a playoff series over the Atlanta Braves and took the St. Louis Cardinals to seven games in the NLCS. Then, the very next year, Houston did it again! The Astros powered through a rough 23-37 stretch early in the season, returned to the postseason and even made the World Series.
So if a team wins only 23 games this year, who knows? It might be hiding World Series talent that would have come out if only the season had been longer. Certainly, history tells us that plenty of storylines will materialize — or be lost forever — depending on which section of 60 games happens to be the 60 that get played this year. But in the end, those will be the only data points we have on each of 2020’s teams (assuming some teams even play that much). Whatever else remains will be left to baseball’s department of what-ifs, an office that’s sure to be busier than ever in this strange, strange season.
Check out our latest MLB predictions.
CORRECTION (Aug. 7, 2020, 4:10 p.m.): An earlier version of this article described a 51-9 record over 60 games by the 2017 Los Angeles Dodgers as the best 60-game stretch in MLB history. It was the third-greatest behind the 1906 Chicago Cubs and the 1912 New York Giants, who each went 52-8 in 60 games.