fivethirthyeight--2020-12-11--Many Black Americans, Republicans, Women Aren’t Sure About Taking A COVID-19 Vaccine

Welcome to Pollapalooza , our weekly polling roundup .
Most Americans say they will take one of the vaccines to immunize themselves from COVID-19 when they become available , according to a series of recent polls .
( And that could be soon , since the Food and Drug Administration ’ s vaccine advisory panel this week recommended that the FDA authorize a vaccine created by Pfizer , likely clearing a path for formal approval and some Americans to be given it as early as next week . )
But at least right now , there are several demographic groups @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , which might lead people in those groups to become ill from the virus at higher rates and prevent the U.S. overall from having the kind of widespread immunization from COVID-19 that medical experts and U.S. government officials would like to see .
Overall , 60 percent of American adults said that they would “ definitely ” ( 29 percent ) or “ probably ” ( 31 percent ) take a vaccine “ if it were available today , ” according to a Pew Research Center poll conducted Nov. 18-29 .
Eighteen percent @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ” take the vaccine , and 21 percent said that they would “ probably not.
” Other polls have revealed similar findings ( for the most part ) .
A Morning Consult survey on behalf of National Geographic conducted Nov. 20-23 found 61 percent of Americans were either “ likely ” or “ somewhat likely ” to take a vaccine if it were approved by the FDA and made available to them .
In that poll , 30 percent said they were unlikely to take the vaccine , including 19 percent who indicated @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a Gallup poll conducted Nov. 16-29 showed roughly the same splits .
These surveys show some clear demographic divides around being vaccinated for COVID-19 .
Here are Pew ’ s results , for example : Let ’ s look more closely at those differences ( note that these groups are in alphabetical order ) : Age .
Willingness to take a vaccine generally increases with age , with people over age 65 in particular willing to take it , according to the surveys .
The Morning Consult poll found 68 percent of those @ @ @ @ @ @ @ would take the vaccine , compared to 54 percent ages 18-34 .
It is not surprising that older people would be more eager to be vaccinated for COVID-19 compared to younger ones , since people over age 65 are dying at higher rates from the virus than younger people .
Education .
Willingness to take a vaccine generally goes up with education levels too .
In Gallup ’ s survey , 68 percent of people with a college degree said they would take a vaccine , compared to 61 percent without a degree @ @ @ @ @ @ @ people with postgraduate degrees ( 75 percent would take a vaccine ) compared to those with only a high school education ( 55 percent ) .
It could be that people with higher levels of education are more aware of the importance of taking vaccines to prevent the spread of diseases and/or are more confident the vaccine will both immunize them and not result in them getting sick .
Alternatively , this education finding could just be a proxy for partisanship ( more on that in a bit ) , since people with @ @ @ @ @ @ @ be more Democratic-leaning than those without degrees .
Gender .
Men are notably more willing than women to say that they will take the vaccine , according to these surveys .
For example , 67 percent of men but just 54 percent of women said they would take the vaccine , per Pew .
There is not an obvious explanation for this finding , which showed up not only in all four of these polls but surveys done recently of people in Colorado , North Carolina and even Ireland .
In fact , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ American health — women generally take more preventative measures than men .
For example , women tend to be more likely than men to get flu vaccinations and men are more likely than women to go a year or more without seeing a doctor .
One potential explanation : women are viewing not taking a vaccine as a pro-health measure , because they aren ’ t sure that the vaccines are safe .
In the Elon University survey of North Carolina residents , women who said they would not take a COVID-19 vaccine @ @ @ @ @ @ @ happened too quickly , leaving them worried that the vaccine process was politicized and that there might be side effects that are not being publicized or aren ’ t yet known .
“ Women are already well-represented in the anti-vaccination movement and in wellness blogging communities that advocate for “ natural ” alternatives to vaccines , ” said Kelly McGuire , a professor of gender at Ontario-based Trent University .
She added , “ There are also numerous studies indicating that women may be conditioned to be more risk-averse than men , which @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that was developed much more quickly than most people anticipated.
” Partisanship .
Democrats are more willing than Republicans to be vaccinated , per the surveys .
For example , 75 percent of Democrats said they would take the vaccine in the Gallup poll , compared to 50 percent of Republicans .
This is not too surprising .
There are not a lot of prominent politicians who are publicly skeptical of vaccines , but those ranks are dominated by conservatives .
Even before the coronavirus outbreak , rank-and-file Republicans tended to be more @ @ @ @ @ @ @ illnesses like the measles .
And amid the COVID-19 outbreak specifically , those Republicans have expressed less concern about the spread of the virus compared to Democrats and are less likely to wear masks .
Race .
Black people are notably less likely than other racial and ethnic groups to say they are going to take a COVID-19 vaccine , according to these surveys .
For example , per the Pew survey , 83 percent of Asian Americans , 63 percent of Hispanics , 61 percent of non-Hispanic white Americans and just 42 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ take a vaccine .
Black Americans are very Democratic leaning but also less likely than Asian or white Americans to have college degrees .
So those two factors may not be good explanations for the wariness of Black Americans in particular about the vaccine .
Instead , experts say there is long-standing mistreatment of Black Americans in U.S. health care research and lingering suspicion from that mistreatment about how the American health care system treats them .
The most prominent example of this mistreatment is the Tuskegee study , in which a group @ @ @ @ @ @ @ had syphilis , were denied treatment that would have lessened the effects of the disease because researchers at Tuskegee wanted to secretly study how the men dealt with the illness .
The study ran from the 1930s to the 1970s before its details became public and it was shut down .
Overall , wariness about taking a COVID-19 vaccine is a major potential problem for the U.S .
Some government officials are suggesting that the U.S. could eventually achieve “ herd immunity ” — a condition in which enough people have had the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ spread rapidly through a geographic area .
That would involve at least 60 percent of people ( if not more ) taking a vaccine .
We should be hesitant about these notions of herd immunity , as it ’ s not clear if the vaccines prevent people from transmitting the virus , even if they are preventing people from getting a severe case of COVID-19 .
That said , there is general agreement that the higher the rate of COVID-19 vaccination , the better .
And the numbers of Americans willing to take @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the next few weeks and months , we are likely to see more and more people being vaccinated and not having major side effects , Thousands of American health care workers and elderly people — and potentially millions of others — will likely receive a COVID-19 vaccine by the end of this month .
Former Presidents Bush , Clinton and Obama have all indicated that they will take a vaccine as soon as they are allowed to and would be willing to do so in public .
It is hard to imagine in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ who say they are willing to get a vaccine ( and ultimately do ) doesn ’ t go up , even among vaccine-wary demographic groups .
Also , we are likely to see targeted efforts at specific demographic groups ( like Black people ) to encourage them to take a COVID-19 vaccine , which might also increase their enthusiasm about the idea .
Conversely , if say , thousands of people get really sick from the vaccine ( this is not likely , I am raising a worst-case scenario ) or people take @ @ @ @ @ @ @ cases of COVID-19 say a month later ( also unlikely ) that might drive even more people to say that they are not willing to take it .
Bottom line — take these COVID-19 poll numbers seriously and literally , but not predictively .
It is not great that 40 percent of Americans , including huge blocs of Black people , Republicans and women , seem wary of taking a vaccine right now .
And it ’ s possible those numbers go down , but seems more likely that they go up as @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of people took a COVID-19 vaccine and not have any major health incidents as a result .
• About 82 percent of Americans agree with the Center for Diseases Control ’ s guidance that health care workers and residents of nursing homes should get COVID-19 vaccines before other Americans , according to a YouGov poll conducted Dec 2-3 .
• Just 29 percent of Americans think that prison inmates should be prioritized for getting COVID-19 vaccines , according to a YouGov poll conducted on Dec. 7 , even as prisons are one of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Another 45 percent of Americans oppose this idea , 26 percent said they didn ’ t know their view on the subject .
• Black people are much more likely than other groups to say they “ have a lot of common interests and concerns ” with other Black people , according to a recent poll conducted by HuffPost and YouGov .
In the survey , 52 percent of Black people indicated they have commonalities with other Black Americans , compared to 29 percent of Black people indicating that “ race and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ” and 19 percent saying they were not sure .
Just 36 percent of Hispanics and 17 percent of white people indicated they have a lot of commonality with people who they share their race or ethnicity .
This finding is consistent with other research that suggests Black Americans in particular view themselves as having “ shared fate ” with one another .
• According to that same survey , Americans tend not to say they have a lot of common concerns with people who share their gender , income level , age @ @ @ @ @ @ @ area .
But more than half of Democrats , Republicans , white people , Black people , men and women say they have a lot of commonality with people who are in the same political party that they are .
• Age and race are big fault lines among Georgia voters in the two U.S. Senate races there .
In his race against Democrat Jon Ossoff , incumbent GOP Sen. David Perdue leads 71-26 percent among Georgia ’ s white voters , according to a Data for Progress poll released this week .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ ahead 89-9 .
Among voters over 45 , Perdue leads 56-41 .
Among voters under 45 , Ossoff leads 57-40 .
• In the other Senate race in Georgia , incumbent Republican Sen. Kelly Loeffler leads her Democratic opponent Raphael Warnock 67-30 percent among white voters and 54-44 among those over 45 .
Warnock is ahead 89-7 among Black voters and 58-36 among those under 45 .
Overall , the DFP survey showed both races effectively tied ( Warnock ahead 50-47 over Loeffler , Perdue ahead 50-48 over Ossoff . )
FiveThirtyEight is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ polls in Georgia , which you can see here .
• Sixty-six percent of Americans , including 51 percent of Republicans , said they supported a recent U.S. House vote to decriminalize marijuana , compared to just 25 who opposed it , according to a Politico/Morning Consult poll conducted Dec 4-6 .
According to FiveThirtyEight ’ s presidential approval tracker , 43.3 percent of Americans approve of the job President Trump is doing , while 52.5 percent disapprove ( a net approval rating of -9.2 points ) .
At this time last week @ @ @ @ @ @ @ disapproved ( a net approval rating of -9.2 points ) .
One month ago , Trump had an approval rating of 44.8 percent and a disapproval rating of 52.0 percent , for a net approval rating of -7.3 points .

Perry Bacon Jr. (perry.bacon@fivethirtyeight.com)

Welcome to Pollapalooza, our weekly polling roundup.
Poll(s) of the week
Most Americans say they will take one of the vaccines to immunize themselves from COVID-19 when they become available, according to a series of recent polls. (And that could be soon, since the Food and Drug Administration’s vaccine advisory panel this week recommended that the FDA authorize a vaccine created by Pfizer, likely clearing a path for formal approval and some Americans to be given it as early as next week.) But at least right now, there are several demographic groups that are disproportionately hesitant to be vaccinated, which might lead people in those groups to become ill from the virus at higher rates and prevent the U.S. overall from having the kind of widespread immunization from COVID-19 that medical experts and U.S. government officials would like to see.
How COVID-19 vaccines work
Overall, 60 percent of American adults said that they would “definitely” (29 percent) or “probably” (31 percent) take a vaccine “if it were available today,” according to a Pew Research Center poll conducted Nov. 18-29. Eighteen percent said that they would “definitely not” take the vaccine, and 21 percent said that they would “probably not.” Other polls have revealed similar findings (for the most part). A Morning Consult survey on behalf of National Geographic conducted Nov. 20-23 found 61 percent of Americans were either “likely” or “somewhat likely” to take a vaccine if it were approved by the FDA and made available to them. In that poll, 30 percent said they were unlikely to take the vaccine, including 19 percent who indicated they were “very unlikely.” And a Gallup poll conducted Nov. 16-29 showed roughly the same splits.
[Related: How To Make Sure People Come Back For Their Second COVID-19 Vaccine Dose]
These surveys show some clear demographic divides around being vaccinated for COVID-19. Here are Pew’s results, for example:
Let’s look more closely at those differences (note that these groups are in alphabetical order):
Age. Willingness to take a vaccine generally increases with age, with people over age 65 in particular willing to take it, according to the surveys. The Morning Consult poll found 68 percent of those who are over age 65 said they would take the vaccine, compared to 54 percent ages 18-34.
It is not surprising that older people would be more eager to be vaccinated for COVID-19 compared to younger ones, since people over age 65 are dying at higher rates from the virus than younger people.
Education. Willingness to take a vaccine generally goes up with education levels too. In Gallup’s survey, 68 percent of people with a college degree said they would take a vaccine, compared to 61 percent without a degree. Pew found a larger gap between people with postgraduate degrees (75 percent would take a vaccine) compared to those with only a high school education (55 percent).
It could be that people with higher levels of education are more aware of the importance of taking vaccines to prevent the spread of diseases and/or are more confident the vaccine will both immunize them and not result in them getting sick. Alternatively, this education finding could just be a proxy for partisanship (more on that in a bit), since people with college degrees and postgraduate degrees tend to be more Democratic-leaning than those without degrees.
Gender. Men are notably more willing than women to say that they will take the vaccine, according to these surveys. For example, 67 percent of men but just 54 percent of women said they would take the vaccine, per Pew. There is not an obvious explanation for this finding, which showed up not only in all four of these polls but surveys done recently of people in Colorado, North Carolina and even Ireland. In fact, this finding contradicts the general trend in American health — women generally take more preventative measures than men. For example, women tend to be more likely than men to get flu vaccinations and men are more likely than women to go a year or more without seeing a doctor.
[Related: Why So Many Men Stuck With Trump In 2020]
One potential explanation: women are viewing not taking a vaccine as a pro-health measure, because they aren’t sure that the vaccines are safe. In the Elon University survey of North Carolina residents, women who said they would not take a COVID-19 vaccine suggested that the vaccine approval process had happened too quickly, leaving them worried that the vaccine process was politicized and that there might be side effects that are not being publicized or aren’t yet known.
“Women are already well-represented in the anti-vaccination movement and in wellness blogging communities that advocate for “natural” alternatives to vaccines,” said Kelly McGuire, a professor of gender at Ontario-based Trent University. She added, “There are also numerous studies indicating that women may be conditioned to be more risk-averse than men, which could be informing response to a vaccine that was developed much more quickly than most people anticipated.”
Partisanship. Democrats are more willing than Republicans to be vaccinated, per the surveys. For example, 75 percent of Democrats said they would take the vaccine in the Gallup poll, compared to 50 percent of Republicans.
This is not too surprising. There are not a lot of prominent politicians who are publicly skeptical of vaccines, but those ranks are dominated by conservatives. Even before the coronavirus outbreak, rank-and-file Republicans tended to be more wary of mandatory vaccinations for children for illnesses like the measles. And amid the COVID-19 outbreak specifically, those Republicans have expressed less concern about the spread of the virus compared to Democrats and are less likely to wear masks.
Race. Black people are notably less likely than other racial and ethnic groups to say they are going to take a COVID-19 vaccine, according to these surveys. For example, per the Pew survey, 83 percent of Asian Americans, 63 percent of Hispanics, 61 percent of non-Hispanic white Americans and just 42 percent of Black Americans indicated they would take a vaccine.
Black Americans are very Democratic leaning but also less likely than Asian or white Americans to have college degrees. So those two factors may not be good explanations for the wariness of Black Americans in particular about the vaccine. Instead, experts say there is long-standing mistreatment of Black Americans in U.S. health care research and lingering suspicion from that mistreatment about how the American health care system treats them. The most prominent example of this mistreatment is the Tuskegee study, in which a group of Black men, many of whom had syphilis, were denied treatment that would have lessened the effects of the disease because researchers at Tuskegee wanted to secretly study how the men dealt with the illness. The study ran from the 1930s to the 1970s before its details became public and it was shut down.
Overall, wariness about taking a COVID-19 vaccine is a major potential problem for the U.S. Some government officials are suggesting that the U.S. could eventually achieve “herd immunity” — a condition in which enough people have had the vaccine that the virus can’t spread rapidly through a geographic area. That would involve at least 60 percent of people (if not more) taking a vaccine. We should be hesitant about these notions of herd immunity, as it’s not clear if the vaccines prevent people from transmitting the virus, even if they are preventing people from getting a severe case of COVID-19. That said, there is general agreement that the higher the rate of COVID-19 vaccination, the better.
And the numbers of Americans willing to take a vaccine might go up. In the next few weeks and months, we are likely to see more and more people being vaccinated and not having major side effects.
Thousands of American health care workers and elderly people — and potentially millions of others — will likely receive a COVID-19 vaccine by the end of this month. Former Presidents Bush, Clinton and Obama have all indicated that they will take a vaccine as soon as they are allowed to and would be willing to do so in public. It is hard to imagine in this scenario that the number of Americans who say they are willing to get a vaccine (and ultimately do) doesn’t go up, even among vaccine-wary demographic groups.
[Related: How To Trust That A COVID-19 Vaccine Is Safe]
Also, we are likely to see targeted efforts at specific demographic groups (like Black people) to encourage them to take a COVID-19 vaccine, which might also increase their enthusiasm about the idea.
Conversely, if say, thousands of people get really sick from the vaccine (this is not likely, I am raising a worst-case scenario) or people take the vaccine but still get really bad cases of COVID-19 say a month later (also unlikely) that might drive even more people to say that they are not willing to take it.
Bottom line — take these COVID-19 poll numbers seriously and literally, but not predictively. It is not great that 40 percent of Americans, including huge blocs of Black people, Republicans and women, seem wary of taking a vaccine right now. And it’s possible those numbers go up, but seems more likely that they go down as Americans watch news coverage describing how millions of people took a COVID-19 vaccine and not have any major health incidents as a result.
Other polling bites
Trump approval
According to FiveThirtyEight’s presidential approval tracker, 43.3 percent of Americans approve of the job President Trump is doing, while 52.5 percent disapprove (a net approval rating of -9.2 points). At this time last week, 43.6 percent approved and 52.8 percent disapproved (a net approval rating of -9.2 points). One month ago, Trump had an approval rating of 44.8 percent and a disapproval rating of 52.0 percent, for a net approval rating of -7.3 points.
COVID vaccine delivery day


fivethirthyeight--2020-12-11--There Was No National Database Tracking COVID-19 Cases In Schools, So Emily Oster Made One

Data has been such a valuable commodity during the pandemic .
But at time it ’ s been in short @ @ @ @ @ agencies haven ’ t always undertaken national data collection efforts .
So what happens when @ @ @ @ @ data themselves ?
We talk to Brown University professor Emily Oster , who developed the @ @ @ @ @ , to find out what she ’ s learned about COVID-19 in schools , the @ @ @ @ @ own public health trackers and how she thinks the incoming Biden administration will approach pandemic @ @ @ @ @ also a best-selling author , known for her pregnancy and parenting books “ Cribsheet ” @ @ @ @ @ ”

Data has been such a valuable commodity during the pandemic. But at times it’s been in short supply, as U.S. government agencies haven’t always undertaken national data collection efforts. So what happens when individual citizens try to collect data themselves? We talk to Brown University professor Emily Oster, who developed the national COVID-19 School Response Dashboard, to find out what she’s learned about COVID-19 in schools, the implications of volunteers developing their own public health trackers and how she thinks the incoming Biden administration will approach pandemic data collection. Oster is also a best-selling author, known for her pregnancy and parenting books “Cribsheet” and “Expecting Better.”
[Related: How To Make Sure People Come Back For Their Second COVID-19 Vaccine Dose]
What the COVID-19 vaccine means for political battles to come


fivethirthyeight--2020-12-11--Why Are We Still Returning Kicks In College Football?

With 12:18 left in the fourth quarter of a game that would decide the Big Ten East title , Indiana had trimmed Ohio State ’ s 35-7 lead to 42-28 .
On the ensuing kickoff , Buckeyes return man Demario McCall caught the kick at his own 4-yard line , looking to make a play .
But he only made it to the 22 , and then a holding penalty pushed Ohio State back to the 12 .
The Buckeyes ’ expected scoring margin dropped by more than a half-point on that play alone , and they gave the ball @ @ @ @ @ @ @ plays later , the Hoosiers drew within one score on a 56-yard touchdown , and that Saturday afternoon in Columbus became far more exciting than expected .
For almost 10 years , the NCAA has been trying to dissuade teams from returning the kind of kick McCall caught , all while refusing to eliminate the kickoff entirely .
Science has long shown that the kickoff is the most dangerous play in football , with the highest incidence rate of concussions from the intense collisions .
In 2012 , college football moved the kickoff @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the 35 and the touchback line from the 20-yard line to the 25 , encouraging teams to take touchbacks and avoid some of those collisions .
In 2018 , another new rule dictated that returners could call for a fair catch inside the 25-yard line and secure field position at the 25 .
The kickoff again became a ( slightly ) less significant part of the game .
The effects of those rules on the kickoff appear to have reached a plateau .
Even when a wave of the arm could secure automatic @ @ @ @ @ @ @ returners like McCall are still bringing the ball out .
In 2011 , according to data from ESPN ’ s Stats & Information Group , FBS teams returned 76.4 percent of all kicks .
After the rule change in 2012 , that return rate dropped to 58.1 percent as touchbacks spiked .
In 2018 , after the new fair-catch rule , the return rate fell again , from 51.6 percent to 40.3 percent , but it has remained roughly steady over the past two seasons .
But why is the rate even as @ @ @ @ @ @ @ attempting a return , teams risk more miscues near their own end zone for little upside .
Just 12.9 percent of kickoffs have been returned 30 or more yards this season , down from 13.9 percent in 2019 and 14.2 percent in 2018 .
And 9.2 percent of returned kickoffs in 2020 have been affected by penalties ( 4.8 percent by holding calls ) , both the highest rates since at least 2004 .
Meanwhile , there ’ s evidence that these kinds of rule changes have helped lower the incidence of concussions @ @ @ @ @ @ @ moved the kickoff from the 35-yard line to the 40 to increase touchbacks ( and moved the touchback from the 25 back to the 20 ) .
A 2018 study in the Journal of the American Medical Association found that in the previous three seasons , kickoffs in the conference had a staggering concussion rate of 10.93 per 1,000 plays , more than four times the league ’ s average overall concussion rate in that time span .
But in the two seasons following the rule change , Ivy League players suffered only @ @ @ @ @ @ @ compared with 1.18 concussions per 1,000 other plays .
The NCAA has at least heard a radical idea to eliminate the kickoff .
Rutgers coach Greg Schiano — who , in his first stint at the school , watched as junior Eric LeGrand was paralyzed on a kickoff in 2010 — proposed in 2011 that the kickoff be replaced with the scoring team retaining possession for a fourth-and-15 play from its 30-yard line .
The idea is that punts would replace kickoffs , and fourth-and-15 tries for the offense would replace onside kicks @ @ @ @ @ @ @ JAMA study of concussions in Ivy League football , had a concussion rate of just 1.12 per 1,000 plays , even fewer than regular scrimmage plays . )
Since the start of the 2010 season , FBS teams have averaged 37.4 net yards per punt , so the average punt from the 35-yard line would leave the opponent at its 28 .
In the same span , teams have recovered 24.3 percent of onside kicks — though the rate is significantly higher when the opponent isn ’ t expecting it , such as @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 20.2 percent of fourth-and-15 plays .
[ Florida ’ s Kyle Pitts Is An NFL Tight End In A College Uniform ] For now , the kickoff remains a long-standing tradition from a bygone era , an often-insignificant sequence but still one that begins each half of every game .
As with many traditions , the prospect of phasing it out causes some angst .
“ Imagine Georgia-Florida and the place is up for grabs and we just jog out and put it on the ground , ” former SEC official Steve Shaw @ @ @ @ @ @ @ I think we want to do everything we can do to protect the play.
” Supporters of the kickoff might also note that the play has produced some of the sport ’ s most exciting moments .
Kickoffs have shifted the win probability in a game by more than 90 percent just three times since 2004 ( the first year for which we have data ) , the wildest examples being two instances of teams coming from behind with touchdown returns on the final play .
Those plays don ’ t come around @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the benefits of talented kick returners .
While receiving teams have been careless at times and started possessions deep in their own territory rather than at the 25 , 5.04 percent of kickoffs this season have resulted in expected points added of at least a 1.0 .
The average win probability added on the kick return remains positive , at 0.16 percent per play , and the potential of a home run is just alluring enough to try it .
Still , coaches such as Texas ’ s Tom Herman speculate that the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Alabama coach Nick Saban , in responding to a question about the fair-catch rule , floated moving the kickoff to the 40 to further increase touchbacks , noting that when a receiver calls for the fair catch , it doesn ’ t necessarily eliminate blocking .
But as long as the kickoff return exists , coaches are likely to keep turning to it when they need it .
“ We ’ re using that as a play in the game to try to make a big play , ” Saban said in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to do it .
”

With 12:18 left in the fourth quarter of a game that would decide the Big Ten East title, Indiana had trimmed Ohio State’s 35-7 lead to 42-28. On the ensuing kickoff, Buckeyes return man Demario McCall caught the kick at his own 4-yard line, looking to make a play. But he only made it to the 22, and then a holding penalty pushed Ohio State back to the 12. The Buckeyes’ expected scoring margin dropped by more than a half-point on that play alone, and they gave the ball back to Indiana near midfield. Two plays later, the Hoosiers drew within one score on a 56-yard touchdown, and that Saturday afternoon in Columbus became far more exciting than expected.
Who’s the most chaotic fictional football coach? | FiveThirtyEight
For almost 10 years, the NCAA has been trying to dissuade teams from returning the kind of kick McCall caught, all while refusing to eliminate the kickoff entirely. Science has long shown that the kickoff is the most dangerous play in football, with the highest incidence rate of concussions from the intense collisions. In 2012, college football moved the kickoff line forward from the 30-yard line to the 35 and the touchback line from the 20-yard line to the 25, encouraging teams to take touchbacks and avoid some of those collisions. In 2018, another new rule dictated that returners could call for a fair catch inside the 25-yard line and secure field position at the 25. The kickoff again became a (slightly) less significant part of the game.
[Related: How Do College Football Dynasties Fall?]
The effects of those rules on the kickoff appear to have reached a plateau. Even when a wave of the arm could secure automatic field position at the 25-yard line, returners like McCall are still bringing the ball out. In 2011, according to data from ESPN’s Stats & Information Group, FBS teams returned 76.4 percent of all kicks. After the rule change in 2012, that return rate dropped to 58.1 percent as touchbacks spiked. In 2018, after the new fair-catch rule, the return rate fell again, from 51.6 percent to 40.3 percent, but it has remained roughly steady over the past two seasons.
But why is the rate even as high as it still is? By attempting a return, teams risk more miscues near their own end zone for little upside. Just 12.9 percent of kickoffs have been returned 30 or more yards this season, down from 13.9 percent in 2019 and 14.2 percent in 2018. And 9.2 percent of returned kickoffs in 2020 have been affected by penalties (4.8 percent by holding calls), both the highest rates since at least 2004.
Meanwhile, there’s evidence that these kinds of rule changes have helped lower the incidence of concussions. In 2016, the Ivy League moved the kickoff from the 35-yard line to the 40 to increase touchbacks (and moved the touchback from the 25 back to the 20). A 2018 study in the Journal of the American Medical Association found that in the previous three seasons, kickoffs in the conference had a staggering concussion rate of 10.93 per 1,000 plays, more than four times the league’s average overall concussion rate in that time span. But in the two seasons following the rule change, Ivy League players suffered only 2.04 concussions per 1,000 kickoff plays, compared with 1.18 concussions per 1,000 other plays.
The NCAA has at least heard a radical idea to eliminate the kickoff. Rutgers coach Greg Schiano — who, in his first stint at the school, watched as junior Eric LeGrand was paralyzed on a kickoff in 2010 — proposed in 2011 that the kickoff be replaced with the scoring team retaining possession for a fourth-and-15 play from its 30-yard line. The idea is that punts would replace kickoffs, and fourth-and-15 tries for the offense would replace onside kicks. (Punts, according to the JAMA study of concussions in Ivy League football, had a concussion rate of just 1.12 per 1,000 plays, even fewer than regular scrimmage plays.) Since the start of the 2010 season, FBS teams have averaged 37.4 net yards per punt, so the average punt from the 35-yard line would leave the opponent at its 28. In the same span, teams have recovered 24.3 percent of onside kicks — though the rate is significantly higher when the opponent isn’t expecting it, such as in the first half — and converted 20.2 percent of fourth-and-15 plays.
[Florida’s Kyle Pitts Is An NFL Tight End In A College Uniform]
For now, the kickoff remains a long-standing tradition from a bygone era, an often-insignificant sequence but still one that begins each half of every game. As with many traditions, the prospect of phasing it out causes some angst. “Imagine Georgia-Florida and the place is up for grabs and we just jog out and put it on the ground,” former SEC official Steve Shaw told CBS Sports last year. “I think we want to do everything we can do to protect the play.”
Supporters of the kickoff might also note that the play has produced some of the sport’s most exciting moments. Kickoffs have shifted the win probability in a game by more than 90 percent just three times since 2004 (the first year for which we have data), the wildest examples being two instances of teams coming from behind with touchdown returns on the final play.
Those plays don’t come around that often, but teams regularly reap the benefits of talented kick returners. While receiving teams have been careless at times and started possessions deep in their own territory rather than at the 25, 5.04 percent of kickoffs this season have resulted in expected points added of at least a 1.0. The average win probability added on the kick return remains positive, at 0.16 percent per play, and the potential of a home run is just alluring enough to try it.
Still, coaches such as Texas’s Tom Herman speculate that the traditional kickoff is on its way out. Alabama coach Nick Saban, in responding to a question about the fair-catch rule, floated moving the kickoff to the 40 to further increase touchbacks, noting that when a receiver calls for the fair catch, it doesn’t necessarily eliminate blocking. But as long as the kickoff return exists, coaches are likely to keep turning to it when they need it. “We’re using that as a play in the game to try to make a big play,” Saban said in 2018. “We have explosive players to do it.”


fivethirthyeight--2020-12-11--The Thunder Have Been Busier This Offseason Than Any Team In NBA History

No NBA team had a busier offseason than the Oklahoma City Thunder .
After being eliminated from the 2020 playoffs by the rival Houston Rockets , the Thunder parted ways with longtime head coach Billy Donovan , with the two sides mutually agreeing not to pursue a new contract .
A little more than two months later , the Thunder promoted 35-year-old assistant coach Mark Daigneault , who had been the franchise ’ s G League coach for five seasons before joining Donovan on the bench last year .
Of course , the Thunder ’ s wheeling and dealing had @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Daigneault , but within days , general manager Sam Presti agreed to a sweeping series of deals meant to jump-start his team ’ s rebuild .
First , Presti sent reserve guard Dennis Schröder ( himself acquired in a deal meant to salary-dump Carmelo Anthony back in 2018 ) to the Los Angeles Lakers in exchange for sharpshooter Danny Green and the No .
28 overall pick in the 2020 NBA Draft .
The next day , the Thunder shipped Chris Paul and Abdel Nader to the Phoenix Suns , receiving Ricky Rubio @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , Jalen Lecque and a ( protected ) 2022 first-round pick in return .
[ The NBA Champs Look More Dangerous Than Ever ] The Paul trade came together two days before the draft , but Presti was just getting started .
The day of the draft , the Thunder made two more trades : They spun Rubio , along with the Nos .
25 and 28 picks in the draft , to the Minnesota Timberwolves , receiving the No .
17 overall pick ( used on Aleksej Pokuševski ) and James Johnson @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the No .
28 pick had just been acquired in the Schröder deal . )
Plus , they flipped Green and Terrance Ferguson over to Philadelphia , receiving Al Horford , the No .
34 overall pick ( used on Theo Maledon ) , a lightly protected 2025 first-round pick and the draft rights to Serbian guard Vasilije Micić from the 76ers .
During the draft , they sent the rights to the No .
53 overall pick ( Cassius Winston ) and a 2024 second-rounder to the Washington Wizards in exchange for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
37 overall pick Vit Krejčí .
Got all that ?
Good , because we ’ re not done .
The day after the draft , the Thunder sent Oubre to the Golden State Warriors , receiving a top-20 protected first-round pick for their troubles .
They also acquired Vincent Poirier and cash considerations from the Celtics in exchange for a conditional future second-round pick .
Two days later , they butted their way into the ever-expanding Jrue Holiday-to-Milwaukee trade , shipping Steven Adams to the New Orleans Pelicans and receiving ( deep @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , a 2023 first-round pick from the Nuggets and second-round picks in 2023 ( via Charlotte ) and 2024 ( via Washington ) , plus Zylan Cheatham , Josh Gray and Kenrich Williams , who were included to make the money work .
The same day , Presti and company flipped Johnson ( previously acquired in the Rubio-to-Minnesota trade ) over to Dallas as part of the same trade that sent Delon Wright to the Pistons , and OKC received Trevor Ariza from Detroit , Justin Jackson from Dallas and draft compensation to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ?
OK , good .
There ’ s more .
The day after the Adams and Johnson trades , the Thunder finalized a deal to send Lecque ( previously acquired in the Paul trade , remember ) over to the Pacers in exchange for former first-round pick T.J .
Leaf and a future second .
A couple of days after that , they agreed to sign-and-trade Danilo Gallinari to the Hawks , receiving a 2025 second-round pick ( and a rather large trade exception — more on that in a minute ) in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ t been counting , that means the Thunder made not one , not two , not three , not four , not five , not six , not seven … but ELEVEN ( 11 ! )
trades so far this offseason .
If you ’ re thinking to yourself that 11 sounds like a whole lot of trades for one offseason , you ’ d be right .
Since 1985 ( the advent of the NBA draft lottery ) , no NBA team has ever made more trades in one offseason than the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Only 20 times during that span did a team make at least seven offseason swaps .
The next-closest teams to this year ’ s Thunder were the 1999 Magic and 2014 Sixers , each of whom agreed to nine trades in one offseason .
All in all , a total of 24 players either passed through or landed in OKC as part of these 11 trades , while the Thunder received six first-round picks ( some of which are protected ) and seven seconds , while sending out two firsts ( one of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ) and three seconds of their own .
They also received the draft rights to one European prospect and some cash from the Celtics .
And those totals don ’ t even include players who were part of their larger deals but never actually touched the Thunder , like Delon Wright , Jrue Holiday and Eric Bledsoe .
An underrated aspect of all this moving and shaking is that several of these deals netted the Thunder sizable trade exceptions , which can be used to bring in any player or combination of players @ @ @ @ @ @ @ amount of the exception that is open .
[ How An Undrafted Rookie Stopped James Harden In The Playoffs ] In the Gallinari sign-and-trade , for example , the Thunder sent out $ 19.5 million more in 2020-21 salary than they received ( because Gallinari was traded into Atlanta ’ s cap space ) , and so they now have a trade exception worth $ 19.5 million that will remain open either for a year after it was created or until OKC is under the cap by more than the value of their @ @ @ @ @ @ @ opened up an even larger exception in the Adams deal .
In fact , for a few days , the $ 27.5 million trade exception they got as a result of that swap was the largest in NBA history , according to ESPN front-office guru Bobby Marks .
The two deals give the Thunder two of the five largest trade exceptions on record , according to Marks .
Combined , the Thunder can use those exceptions to acquire players who make up to $ 47 million .
They can not , though , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ than $ 27.5 million .
Exceptions can be split up to sign multiple players , but they can ’ t be combined , either with other exceptions or with a player ’ s salary , to acquire players whose salary exceeds the value of any one exception .
So the Thunder can ’ t , for example , use the two exceptions to trade for LeBron James , who is set to make around $ 39.2 million this season .
But they could , hypothetically , deal for both Jrue Holiday and Brook @ @ @ @ @ @ @ into one of the two exceptions .
More realistically , those exceptions give Presti the opportunity to use cap space his team doesn ’ t actually have at the moment as a dumping ground for other teams ’ unwanted contracts , with the Thunder likely receiving payment in the form of draft picks in exchange for taking on the salary .
There is a method to the seeming madness of Presti acquiring oh-so-many draft picks , which he began doing last offseason when he made two trades that reaped a bounty of picks @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the Los Angeles Clippers for Gallinari , Shai Gilgeous-Alexander , four unprotected first-round picks , one protected first-round pick and two pick swaps , and he sent franchise icon Russell Westbrook to the Rockets for Chris Paul , two top-four protected firsts and two more pick swaps .
The Thunder know better than almost any team in the league how to build a top-tier contender through the draft .
Presti was hired in June 2007 , and his first four first-round picks were Kevin Durant , Westbrook , Serge Ibaka and James Harden @ @ @ @ @ @ @ core of a contender , and the team remained firmly in the mix even after Presti shipped Harden off to Houston .
They were still among the league ’ s best teams right up until Durant left for Golden State in the summer of 2016 .
[ Christian Wood Might Be The Rockets ’ Silver Lining ] But success isn ’ t likely to come quite as easily for OKC this time around .
It ’ s not often that a team lands a top-four draft pick in three consecutive seasons , as @ @ @ @ @ @ @ It ’ s even rarer that a team ends up selecting three future MVPs with those picks , as the Thunder did ( starting back when they were still the Seattle SuperSonics ) in 2007 ( Durant ) , 2008 ( Westbrook ) and 2009 ( Harden ) .
The draft is typically more of a crapshoot , which means amassing a large number of picks is key to acquiring top-tier talent .
That wealth of picks allows OKC to do things like take a shot on Pokuševski , a not-even-19-years-old-yet string bean @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of Kristaps Porziņģis and Trae Young .
If “ Poku ” works out , the Thunder have themselves a foundational star .
If not , well , they still have a cupboard full of draft picks they can use to take a few more home-run swings .
It also seems highly likely that Presti is not done dealing yet .
Whether it ’ s before the season begins on Dec. 22 or sometime before the rumored March 25 trade deadline , Presti should be able to find new homes for players like Horford @ @ @ @ @ @ @ whom would make more sense on a contending team than a rebuilding squad like the Thunder .
And if his history is any indication , Presti will likely receive more in return for those players than he gave up to acquire them .

No NBA team had a busier offseason than the Oklahoma City Thunder. After being eliminated from the 2020 playoffs by the rival Houston Rockets, the Thunder parted ways with longtime head coach Billy Donovan, with the two sides mutually agreeing not to pursue a new contract. A little more than two months later, the Thunder promoted 35-year-old assistant coach Mark Daigneault, who had been the franchise’s G League coach for five seasons before joining Donovan on the bench last year.
Of course, the Thunder’s wheeling and dealing had yet to even begin when they hired Daigneault, but within days, general manager Sam Presti agreed to a sweeping series of deals meant to jump-start his team’s rebuild.
Who’s the most chaotic fictional football coach? | FiveThirtyEight
First, Presti sent reserve guard Dennis Schröder (himself acquired in a deal meant to salary-dump Carmelo Anthony back in 2018) to the Los Angeles Lakers in exchange for sharpshooter Danny Green and the No. 28 overall pick in the 2020 NBA Draft. The next day, the Thunder shipped Chris Paul and Abdel Nader to the Phoenix Suns, receiving Ricky Rubio, Kelly Oubre Jr., Ty Jerome, Jalen Lecque and a (protected) 2022 first-round pick in return.
[The NBA Champs Look More Dangerous Than Ever]
The Paul trade came together two days before the draft, but Presti was just getting started. The day of the draft, the Thunder made two more trades: They spun Rubio, along with the Nos. 25 and 28 picks in the draft, to the Minnesota Timberwolves, receiving the No. 17 overall pick (used on Aleksej Pokuševski) and James Johnson in return. (And remember, the No. 28 pick had just been acquired in the Schröder deal.) Plus, they flipped Green and Terrance Ferguson over to Philadelphia, receiving Al Horford, the No. 34 overall pick (used on Theo Maledon), a lightly protected 2025 first-round pick and the draft rights to Serbian guard Vasilije Micić from the 76ers. During the draft, they sent the rights to the No. 53 overall pick (Cassius Winston) and a 2024 second-rounder to the Washington Wizards in exchange for Admiral Schofield and the rights to No. 37 overall pick Vit Krejčí.
Got all that? Good, because we’re not done.
The day after the draft, the Thunder sent Oubre to the Golden State Warriors, receiving a top-20 protected first-round pick for their troubles. They also acquired Vincent Poirier and cash considerations from the Celtics in exchange for a conditional future second-round pick.
Two days later, they butted their way into the ever-expanding Jrue Holiday-to-Milwaukee trade, shipping Steven Adams to the New Orleans Pelicans and receiving (deep breath) George Hill, Darius Miller, a 2023 first-round pick from the Nuggets and second-round picks in 2023 (via Charlotte) and 2024 (via Washington), plus Zylan Cheatham, Josh Gray and Kenrich Williams, who were included to make the money work. The same day, Presti and company flipped Johnson (previously acquired in the Rubio-to-Minnesota trade) over to Dallas as part of the same trade that sent Delon Wright to the Pistons, and OKC received Trevor Ariza from Detroit, Justin Jackson from Dallas and draft compensation to be named later.
Still with me? OK, good. There’s more.
The day after the Adams and Johnson trades, the Thunder finalized a deal to send Lecque (previously acquired in the Paul trade, remember) over to the Pacers in exchange for former first-round pick T.J. Leaf and a future second. A couple of days after that, they agreed to sign-and-trade Danilo Gallinari to the Hawks, receiving a 2025 second-round pick (and a rather large trade exception — more on that in a minute) in return.
OKC had a busy few weeks NBA teams with seven or more trades in one offseason, since 1985 Team Year Trades Thunder 2020 11 Magic 1999 9 76ers 2014 9 Bulls 1986 8 Nuggets 1997 8 Timberwolves 2009 8 Rockets 2017 8 Hawks 2019 8 Pistons 2020 8 Heat 1988 7 Mavericks 2000 7 Bobcats 2004 7 Mavericks 2004 7 Blazers 2006 7 Timberwolves 2011 7 Rockets 2012 7 Cavaliers 2014 7 76ers 2018 7 Grizzlies 2019 7 Warriors 2019 7 Source: ProSportsTransactions.com
In case you haven’t been counting, that means the Thunder made not one, not two, not three, not four, not five, not six, not seven … but ELEVEN (11!) trades so far this offseason. If you’re thinking to yourself that 11 sounds like a whole lot of trades for one offseason, you’d be right. Since 1985 (the advent of the NBA draft lottery), no NBA team has ever made more trades in one offseason than the Thunder have so far in 2020. Only 20 times during that span did a team make at least seven offseason swaps. The next-closest teams to this year’s Thunder were the 1999 Magic and 2014 Sixers, each of whom agreed to nine trades in one offseason.
All in all, a total of 24 players either passed through or landed in OKC as part of these 11 trades, while the Thunder received six first-round picks (some of which are protected) and seven seconds, while sending out two firsts (one of which was acquired in a previous deal) and three seconds of their own. They also received the draft rights to one European prospect and some cash from the Celtics. And those totals don’t even include players who were part of their larger deals but never actually touched the Thunder, like Delon Wright, Jrue Holiday and Eric Bledsoe.
An underrated aspect of all this moving and shaking is that several of these deals netted the Thunder sizable trade exceptions, which can be used to bring in any player or combination of players who are making less money than the amount of the exception that is open.
[How An Undrafted Rookie Stopped James Harden In The Playoffs]
In the Gallinari sign-and-trade, for example, the Thunder sent out $19.5 million more in 2020-21 salary than they received (because Gallinari was traded into Atlanta’s cap space), and so they now have a trade exception worth $19.5 million that will remain open either for a year after it was created or until OKC is under the cap by more than the value of their exceptions, whichever comes first. OKC opened up an even larger exception in the Adams deal. In fact, for a few days, the $27.5 million trade exception they got as a result of that swap was the largest in NBA history, according to ESPN front-office guru Bobby Marks.
Two Thunder trades delivered massive exceptions Teams with the biggest trade exceptions in NBA history, with the player they traded away and how the exception money was used Year Team Traded player Used for Exception 2020 Celtics Gordon Hayward Available $28.5M 2020 Thunder Steven Adams Available 27.5 2019 Grizzlies Mike Conley Andre Iguodala 25.1 2019 Mavericks Harrison Barnes Delon Wright, Willie Cauley-Stein 21.3 2020 Thunder Danilo Gallinari Available 19.5 2012 Magic Dwight Howard Never used 17.8 2019 Warriors Andre Iguodala Kelly Oubre Jr. 17.2 2011 Nuggets Carmelo Anthony Andre Miller, Corey Brewer, Rudy Fernández 17.2 2010 Suns Amar’e Stoudemire Hakim Warrick, Josh Childress 16.5 2016 Pacers Roy Hibbert Never used 15.5 2017 Bulls Jimmy Butler Quincy Pondexter, Ömer Aşik 15.3 2017 Nuggets Danilo Gallinari Never used 15.0 Source: ESPN
The two deals give the Thunder two of the five largest trade exceptions on record, according to Marks. Combined, the Thunder can use those exceptions to acquire players who make up to $47 million. They cannot, though, acquire any one player who makes more than $27.5 million. Exceptions can be split up to sign multiple players, but they can’t be combined, either with other exceptions or with a player’s salary, to acquire players whose salary exceeds the value of any one exception.
So the Thunder can’t, for example, use the two exceptions to trade for LeBron James, who is set to make around $39.2 million this season. But they could, hypothetically, deal for both Jrue Holiday and Brook Lopez, each of whom would fit into one of the two exceptions. More realistically, those exceptions give Presti the opportunity to use cap space his team doesn’t actually have at the moment as a dumping ground for other teams’ unwanted contracts, with the Thunder likely receiving payment in the form of draft picks in exchange for taking on the salary.
There is a method to the seeming madness of Presti acquiring oh-so-many draft picks, which he began doing last offseason when he made two trades that reaped a bounty of picks: He traded All-Star Paul George to the Los Angeles Clippers for Gallinari, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, four unprotected first-round picks, one protected first-round pick and two pick swaps, and he sent franchise icon Russell Westbrook to the Rockets for Chris Paul, two top-four protected firsts and two more pick swaps. The Thunder know better than almost any team in the league how to build a top-tier contender through the draft. Presti was hired in June 2007, and his first four first-round picks were Kevin Durant, Westbrook, Serge Ibaka and James Harden. That group quickly congealed into the core of a contender, and the team remained firmly in the mix even after Presti shipped Harden off to Houston. They were still among the league’s best teams right up until Durant left for Golden State in the summer of 2016.
[Christian Wood Might Be The Rockets’ Silver Lining]
But success isn’t likely to come quite as easily for OKC this time around. It’s not often that a team lands a top-four draft pick in three consecutive seasons, as the Thunder did in their infancy. It’s even rarer that a team ends up selecting three future MVPs with those picks, as the Thunder did (starting back when they were still the Seattle SuperSonics) in 2007 (Durant), 2008 (Westbrook) and 2009 (Harden).
The draft is typically more of a crapshoot, which means amassing a large number of picks is key to acquiring top-tier talent. That wealth of picks allows OKC to do things like take a shot on Pokuševski, a not-even-19-years-old-yet string bean who seems to play like a hybrid of Kristaps Porziņģis and Trae Young. If “Poku” works out, the Thunder have themselves a foundational star. If not, well, they still have a cupboard full of draft picks they can use to take a few more home-run swings.
It also seems highly likely that Presti is not done dealing yet. Whether it’s before the season begins on Dec. 22 or sometime before the rumored March 25 trade deadline, Presti should be able to find new homes for players like Horford, Hill and Ariza — each of whom would make more sense on a contending team than a rebuilding squad like the Thunder. And if his history is any indication, Presti will likely receive more in return for those players than he gave up to acquire them.
Neil Paine and Dhrumil Mehta contributed research.


fivethirthyeight--2020-12-11--Why A Big Bloc of Americans Is Wary Of The COVID-19 Vaccine — Even As Experts Hope To See Widespread

Why A Big Bloc of Americans Is Wary Of The COVID-19 Vaccine — Even As Experts Hope To See Widespread Immunization

Welcome to Pollapalooza , our weekly polling roundup .
Most Americans say they will take one of the vaccines to immunize themselves from COVID-19 when they become available , according to a series of recent polls .
( And that could be soon , since the Food and Drug Administration ’ s vaccine advisory panel this week recommended that the FDA authorize a vaccine created by Pfizer , likely clearing a path for formal approval and some Americans to be given it as early as next week . )
But at least right now , there are several demographic groups @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , which might lead people in those groups to become ill from the virus at higher rates and prevent the U.S. overall from having the kind of widespread immunization from COVID-19 that medical experts and U.S. government officials would like to see .
What to make of Pfizer ’ s big vaccine announcement l FiveThirtyEight Overall , 60 percent of American adults said that they would “ definitely ” ( 29 percent ) or “ probably ” ( 31 percent ) take a vaccine “ if it were available today , ” according @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Nov. 18-29 .
Eighteen percent said that they would “ definitely not ” take the vaccine , and 21 percent said that they would “ probably not.
” Other polls have revealed similar findings ( for the most part ) .
A Morning Consult survey on behalf of National Geographic conducted Nov. 20-23 found 61 percent of Americans were either “ likely ” or “ somewhat likely ” to take a vaccine if it were approved by the FDA and made available to them .
In that poll , 30 percent said they @ @ @ @ @ @ @ including 19 percent who indicated they were “ very unlikely.
” And a Gallup poll conducted Nov. 16-29 showed roughly the same splits .
[ Related : How To Make Sure People Come Back For Their Second COVID-19 Vaccine Dose ] These surveys show some clear demographic divides around being vaccinated for COVID-19 .
Here are Pew ’ s results , for example : Let ’ s look more closely at those differences ( note that these groups are in alphabetical order ) : Age .
Willingness to take a vaccine generally increases @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 65 in particular willing to take it , according to the surveys .
The Morning Consult poll found 68 percent of those who are over age 65 said they would take the vaccine , compared to 54 percent ages 18-34 .
It is not surprising that older people would be more eager to be vaccinated for COVID-19 compared to younger ones , since people over age 65 are dying at higher rates from the virus than younger people .
Education .
Willingness to take a vaccine generally goes up with education levels too @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 68 percent of people with a college degree said they would take a vaccine , compared to 61 percent without a degree .
Pew found a larger gap between people with postgraduate degrees ( 75 percent would take a vaccine ) compared to those with only a high school education ( 55 percent ) .
It could be that people with higher levels of education are more aware of the importance of taking vaccines to prevent the spread of diseases and/or are more confident the vaccine will both immunize them and not result @ @ @ @ @ @ @ this education finding could just be a proxy for partisanship ( more on that in a bit ) , since people with college degrees and postgraduate degrees tend to be more Democratic-leaning than those without degrees .
Gender .
Men are notably more willing than women to say that they will take the vaccine , according to these surveys .
For example , 67 percent of men but just 54 percent of women said they would take the vaccine , per Pew .
There is not an obvious explanation for this finding , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ four of these polls but surveys done recently of people in Colorado , North Carolina and even Ireland .
In fact , this finding contradicts the general trend in American health — women generally take more preventative measures than men .
For example , women tend to be more likely than men to get flu vaccinations and men are more likely than women to go a year or more without seeing a doctor .
[ Related : Why So Many Men Stuck With Trump In 2020 ] One potential explanation : women are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ pro-health measure , because they aren ’ t sure that the vaccines are safe .
In the Elon University survey of North Carolina residents , women who said they would not take a COVID-19 vaccine suggested that the vaccine approval process had happened too quickly , leaving them worried that the vaccine process was politicized and that there might be side effects that are not being publicized or aren ’ t yet known .
“ Women are already well-represented in the anti-vaccination movement and in wellness blogging communities that advocate for “ natural @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Kelly McGuire , a professor of gender at Ontario-based Trent University .
She added , “ There are also numerous studies indicating that women may be conditioned to be more risk-averse than men , which could be informing response to a vaccine that was developed much more quickly than most people anticipated.
” Partisanship .
Democrats are more willing than Republicans to be vaccinated , per the surveys .
For example , 75 percent of Democrats said they would take the vaccine in the Gallup poll , compared to 50 percent of Republicans @ @ @ @ @ @ @ There are not a lot of prominent politicians who are publicly skeptical of vaccines , but those ranks are dominated by conservatives .
Even before the coronavirus outbreak , rank-and-file Republicans tended to be more wary of mandatory vaccinations for children for illnesses like the measles .
And amid the COVID-19 outbreak specifically , those Republicans have expressed less concern about the spread of the virus compared to Democrats and are less likely to wear masks .
Race .
Black people are notably less likely than other racial and ethnic groups to say @ @ @ @ @ @ @ vaccine , according to these surveys .
For example , per the Pew survey , 83 percent of Asian Americans , 63 percent of Hispanics , 61 percent of non-Hispanic white Americans and just 42 percent of Black Americans indicated they would take a vaccine .
Black Americans are very Democratic leaning but also less likely than Asian or white Americans to have college degrees .
So those two factors may not be good explanations for the wariness of Black Americans in particular about the vaccine .
Instead , experts say there is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ health care research and lingering suspicion from that mistreatment about how the American health care system treats them .
The most prominent example of this mistreatment is the Tuskegee study , in which a group of Black men , many of whom had syphilis , were denied treatment that would have lessened the effects of the disease because researchers at Tuskegee wanted to secretly study how the men dealt with the illness .
The study ran from the 1930s to the 1970s before its details became public and it was shut down .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ vaccine is a major potential problem for the U.S .
Some government officials are suggesting that the U.S. could eventually achieve “ herd immunity ” — a condition in which enough people have had the vaccine that the virus can ’ t spread rapidly through a geographic area .
That would involve at least 60 percent of people ( if not more ) taking a vaccine .
We should be hesitant about these notions of herd immunity , as it ’ s not clear if the vaccines prevent people from transmitting the virus @ @ @ @ @ @ @ from getting a severe case of COVID-19 .
That said , there is general agreement that the higher the rate of COVID-19 vaccination , the better .
And the numbers of Americans willing to take a vaccine might go up .
In the next few weeks and months , we are likely to see more and more people being vaccinated and not having major side effects .
Thousands of American health care workers and elderly people — and potentially millions of others — will likely receive a COVID-19 vaccine by the end of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Clinton and Obama have all indicated that they will take a vaccine as soon as they are allowed to and would be willing to do so in public .
It is hard to imagine in this scenario that the number of Americans who say they are willing to get a vaccine ( and ultimately do ) doesn ’ t go up , even among vaccine-wary demographic groups .
[ Related : How To Trust That A COVID-19 Vaccine Is Safe ] Also , we are likely to see targeted efforts at specific demographic @ @ @ @ @ @ @ encourage them to take a COVID-19 vaccine , which might also increase their enthusiasm about the idea .
Conversely , if say , thousands of people get really sick from the vaccine ( this is not likely , I am raising a worst-case scenario ) or people take the vaccine but still get really bad cases of COVID-19 say a month later ( also unlikely ) that might drive even more people to say that they are not willing to take it .
Bottom line — take these COVID-19 poll numbers seriously and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is not great that 40 percent of Americans , including huge blocs of Black people , Republicans and women , seem wary of taking a vaccine right now .
And it ’ s possible those numbers go down , but seems more likely that they go up as Americans watch news coverage describing how millions of people took a COVID-19 vaccine and not have any major health incidents as a result .
• About 82 percent of Americans agree with the Center for Diseases Control ’ s guidance that health care workers and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ vaccines before other Americans , according to a YouGov poll conducted Dec 2-3 .
• Just 29 percent of Americans think that prison inmates should be prioritized for getting COVID-19 vaccines , according to a YouGov poll conducted on Dec. 7 , even as prisons are one of the places where virus outbreaks often occur .
Another 45 percent of Americans oppose this idea , 26 percent said they didn ’ t know their view on the subject .
• Black people are much more likely than other groups to say they “ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ concerns ” with other Black people , according to a recent poll conducted by HuffPost and YouGov .
In the survey , 52 percent of Black people indicated they have commonalities with other Black Americans , compared to 29 percent of Black people indicating that “ race and ethnicity are not really that relevant , ” and 19 percent saying they were not sure .
Just 36 percent of Hispanics and 17 percent of white people indicated they have a lot of commonality with people who they share their race or ethnicity .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ that suggests Black Americans in particular view themselves as having “ shared fate ” with one another .
• According to that same survey , Americans tend not to say they have a lot of common concerns with people who share their gender , income level , age , religion or live in the same area .
But more than half of Democrats , Republicans , white people , Black people , men and women say they have a lot of commonality with people who are in the same political party that they @ @ @ @ @ @ @ big fault lines among Georgia voters in the two U.S. Senate races there .
In his race against Democrat Jon Ossoff , incumbent GOP Sen. David Perdue leads 71-26 percent among Georgia ’ s white voters , according to a Data for Progress poll released this week .
Among Georgia Black voters , Ossoff is ahead 89-9 .
Among voters over 45 , Perdue leads 56-41 .
Among voters under 45 , Ossoff leads 57-40 .
• In the other Senate race in Georgia , incumbent Republican Sen. Kelly Loeffler leads her Democratic @ @ @ @ @ @ @ voters and 54-44 among those over 45 .
Warnock is ahead 89-7 among Black voters and 58-36 among those under 45 .
Overall , the DFP survey showed both races effectively tied ( Warnock ahead 50-47 over Loeffler , Perdue ahead 50-48 over Ossoff . )
FiveThirtyEight is doing a regularly updated polling average of polls in Georgia , which you can see here .
• Sixty-six percent of Americans , including 51 percent of Republicans , said they supported a recent U.S. House vote to decriminalize marijuana , compared to just 25 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Politico/Morning Consult poll conducted Dec 4-6 .
According to FiveThirtyEight ’ s presidential approval tracker , 43.3 percent of Americans approve of the job President Trump is doing , while 52.5 percent disapprove ( a net approval rating of -9.2 points ) .
At this time last week , 43.6 percent approved and 52.8 percent disapproved ( a net approval rating of -9.2 points ) .
One month ago , Trump had an approval rating of 44.8 percent and a disapproval rating of 52.0 percent , for a net approval rating of -7.3 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ compare to other presidents | FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast


fivethirthyeight--2020-12-11--The Federal Government Wasn’t Tracking COVID-19 Cases In Schools, So Emily Oster Decided To Do It He

The Federal Government Wasn’t Tracking COVID-19 Cases In Schools, So Emily Oster Decided To Do It Herself