fivethirthyeight--2020-07-22--The Dodgers Lead Our National League Predictions, But Don’t Count Out The Nats Or … Reds?

Welcome to the second part of our 2020 baseball season breakdown , based on our MLB prediction model .
To help make sense of the contenders and also-rans of this strange season , we plugged the shortened schedule into our forecast model and simulated it 100,000 times , tracking each team ’ s expected record and its odds of winning the division or the World Series .
Here ’ s what our model thinks of the 2020 National League .
( And don ’ t miss the American League preview . )
The reigning champion Washington Nationals remain in a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Staff ace Max Scherzer has enjoyed seven-straight top-five Cy Young finishes and shows little sign of slowing .
Last season , in his age-34 campaign , he led the NL and posted personal bests in fielding-independent pitching ( 2.45 ) and strikeouts per nine innings ( 12.7 ) .
Scherzer is backed by fellow elite starters Stephen Strasburg — whom the Nationals retained for what was briefly a record deal for a pitcher — and Patrick Corbin , a 2019 free agent signee who outproduced departed star Bryce Harper last season ( @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
They give the Nationals what projects to be one of the top rotations in the NL .
While the Nationals did lose star Anthony Rendon to free agency , Juan Soto could be on the cusp of becoming the most feared hitter in the league : Last year , he became the first batter in MLB history to post an on-base percentage of at least .400 in his age-19 and -20 seasons .
The Nationals aren ’ t without their question marks , particularly their bullpen , which struggled mightily last season @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Will Harris in free agency .
The New York Mets do not lack for elite pitching , with Jacob deGrom coming off back-to-back Cy Young Awards .
DeGrom ’ s combination of velocity , command and assortment of three plus pitches is just about peerless .
For three straight seasons , Michael Conforto ’ s sweet left-handed swing has produced at least a 120 weighted runs created plus , which adjusts for the ballpark and the run-scoring environment in any given year , meaning that he ’ s been 20 percent better than @ @ @ @ @ @ @ still have a number of question marks .
Can Brandon Nimmo enjoy a full season and flirt with a .400 OBP ?
Can Robinson Cano bounce back at age 37 after his worst season since 2008 ?
Can Edwin Diaz rediscover the success he had with the Seattle Mariners ?
And , after an injury scare for deGrom , the biggest question might be : Can everyone stay healthy ?
[ Related : Baseball Will Be Weird This Year .
But The Astros And Yankees Are Favorites In The American League … Again @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Braves to be a postseason contender , other projection systems see the Braves as a favorite to win the NL East .
The team has the strongest position-player group in the division , according to FanGraphs , and trails only the Los Angeles Dodgers in projected position-player production .
Braves MVP candidate Ronald Acuña Jr. just missed a 40-40 season a year ago ; Acuña , Freddie Freeman and Ozzie Albies each provided more than 4 wins above replacement for the season .
As for pitching , Atlanta should have a quality rotation @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , it ’ s not clear if Mike Soroka can repeat his 2019 performance .
The Philadelphia Phillies loaded up on stars before the 2019 season , with their signing of Bryce Harper to a record contract as the centerpiece .
What they got was a disappointing 81-81 record and a fourth-place finish .
Harper ended up posting a mark of 4.6 WAR , good for 26th in MLB , but Philadelphia might worry that his best seasons are behind him : His strikeout rate has inched up for three consecutive seasons , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ removed from truly elite production when he won the NL MVP in 2015 .
J.T .
Realmuto is still projected as one of the best catchers in baseball , and he was last year in his first year with the Phillies , but staff ace Aaron Nola took a step backward last season , and it ’ s not clear how Andrew McCutchen will perform coming off knee surgery .
The Phillies will also be looking to get more from free agent signee Zack Wheeler ’ s raw tools ( elite velocity and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ did .
The Miami Marlins , in the midst of a deep rebuild with what we project to be the second-worst run differential in the NL , have improved their farm system , which had been one of the worst in baseball .
The Marlins also roster some intriguing major league talent they hope can show growth .
Second baseman Isan Diaz has a swing that resembles his idol Robinson Cano .
He hit .305 with 26 home runs in 102 Triple-A games last year .
Pitcher Caleb Smith has elite spin and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ better than a batter per inning for his three-year career .
The speedy and versatile Jonathan Villar is moving to the outfield and could be a trade candidate .
And catcher Jorge Alfaro is just one year removed from a 3-WAR season .
The NL Central race figures to be one of the most wide-open contests in baseball this year , with our model projecting four teams finishing within a game of first place .
The team with the best chance of winning the division ( at 27 percent ) is the Cincinnati @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in the postseason since their 2013 wild-card game loss .
Emerging homegrown ace Luis Castillo , one of the top strikeout pitchers in the game , was joined last year by Sonny Gray and Trevor Bauer to form a potential quality rotation .
While Bauer struggled last year , he is just one season removed from finishing sixth in AL Cy Young voting .
Gray enjoyed his best season by WAR under pitching coaches Derek Johnson and Caleb Cotham , leaning on an excellent curveball and slider — both of which were well @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Votto looks to be in decline , the Reds have one of the more underrated players in the game in third base slugger Eugenio Suárez , who crushed 49 home runs last year and has had three straight years of 3.9 WAR or better .
Suárez is fully recovered from a late winter shoulder injury .
The Chicago Cubs once looked as if they were on the cusp of a dynasty , winning the 2016 title with a young , elite core of position players .
While that group remains strong , the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ pitching .
The team spent heavily — in dollars and prospects — to put together its rotation : Yu Darvish , Tyler Chatwood , Jose Quintana ( acquired in a deal that sent Eloy Jimenez across town ) and Jon Lester were all acquired via trade or free agency .
Chicago ’ s rotation projects as just the 17th best in baseball , and only Darvish projects to post a sub-4.00 ERA .
The Cubs will try to bounce back from last season ’ s disappointing finish under a new manager , former @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Joe Maddon after he and the club parted ways and he then joined the Angels .
The Milwaukee Brewers have enjoyed Christian Yelich ’ s growth into a superstar , changing from an extreme ground-ball hitter to one who more often lifts pitches and slugs them .
And the club is hoping that another star-caliber player emerges in second-year second baseman Keston Hiura .
He has a number of tools that include incredible bat speed , though he also had some swing-and-miss issues last season as a rookie .
The Brewers added former @ @ @ @ @ @ @ offseason trade and could end up with one of the best young middle infields in baseball — though they have to hope that Urias ’ s first underwhelming 300 plate appearances in the majors will be his worst after a stellar minor league career in which he demonstrated all five tools .
The St. Louis Cardinals have developed a new ace in Jack Flaherty , who produced the lowest ERA in the majors in the second half of last season ( 0.91 ) .
The 24-year-old has three plus pitches in his four-seam @ @ @ @ @ @ @ However , the Cardinals were just 10th in the NL in runs scored last season , and with key contributors Paul Goldshmidt , Yadier Molina and Matt Carpenter all on the wrong side of 30 , it ’ s not clear how much upside resides in the group .
Only the Brewers and Giants had older position players last season .
Every NL Central team appears to have a shot at the division , save for the Pittsburgh Pirates and their new regime led by general manager Ben Cherington and manager Derek Shelton @ @ @ @ @ @ @ retooling season in part because their starting rotation is depleted .
Jameson Taillon is still rehabbing from Tommy John surgery , and Chris Archer , acquired in what is shaping up to be one of the worst trades in recent memory , is also out for the season .
Even with David Price sitting out the season because of concerns amid the coronavirus pandemic , the Los Angeles Dodgers are clear favorites according to our projections .
The Dodgers , winners of seven-straight division titles and two of the last three NL pennants @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Cody Bellinger , Max Muncy , Justin Turner and Corey Seager , and they added a star in a trade for Mookie Betts .
Los Angeles also has a deep system with potential future stars ready to contribute , like infielder Gavin Lux , one of the top prospects in the game , and catcher Will Smith , who hit 35 combined home runs between Triple-A and the majors last season .
Only the Astros project to produce more position player wins above replacement than the Dodgers .
And despite the free agent @ @ @ @ @ @ @ L.A. for Toronto , the Dodgers have plenty of firepower in their rotation in long-time ace Clayton Kershaw and an emerging No .
1 pitcher in Walker Buehler .
Among all starting pitchers in the second half of last season , only Scherzer had a superior FIP mark than that of electric-armed Buehler .
The Dodgers project to produce the fourth most pitching value in this shortened season .
The Arizona Diamondbacks were in the wild-card hunt a year ago and added Madison Bumgarner , Starling Marte and Kole Calhoun in the offseason @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Bumgarner posted 3.2 WAR last year with the Giants after two injury-shortened seasons , and he could give the team a No .
1 pitching option .
Strikeout artists Robbie Ray and Zac Gallen provide the Diamondbacks with a deep rotation .
The San Diego Padres are a young team on the rise , one that could exceed expectations .
The Padres had the youngest position-player group in the NL last season , with an average age of 26.2 years old , and they boast the top farm system in the NL — @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Jr. last season .
Tatis Jr. looks like a potential superstar : In his debut year , he produced an offensive performance that was 50 percent above league average , with a 150 wRC+ mark .
He belted 22 homers and stole 16 bases in a partial season while displaying a powerful arm at shortstop .
A sleeper NL Cy Young candidate is ace Chris Paddack , who was limited to 140 ⅔ innings as a rookie last season by the cautious Padres .
Paddack employed excellent command of a swing-and-miss changeup and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ walk percentage among all pitchers who tossed at least 100 innings .
If an improved curveball becomes a better option for him , Paddack could ascend from being very good to great .
The Colorado Rockies were a wild-card team in 2018 , but their pitching fell off last season : Their ERA+ , which adjusts for ballpark factors and league scoring environment , was an above-average 109 in 2018 but a below-average 94 last season .
Even at mile-high altitude , pitching will be key to any success for the Rockies , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of the poorest production in the majors at catcher , first base , left field and center field , according to FanGraphs .
While the majority of the NL West will attempt to be competitive in 2020 , the San Francisco Giants are still in retooling mode , with a new manager in Gabe Kapler .
The Giants will also be without the longtime face of their franchise in Buster Posey , who is electing to sit out the season due to COVID-19 concerns related to his family .
Top catching prospect Joey @ @ @ @ @ @ @ overall pick , is the heir apparent to Posey ; he has had a good summer camp , but he may not get much , if any , major league time in 2020 .

Welcome to the second part of our 2020 baseball season breakdown, based on our MLB prediction model. To help make sense of the contenders and also-rans of this strange season, we plugged the shortened schedule into our forecast model and simulated it 100,000 times, tracking each team’s expected record and its odds of winning the division or the World Series. Here’s what our model thinks of the 2020 National League. (And don’t miss the American League preview.)
How Elo is forecasting the NL East race Avg. Simulated Season Chance to… Team Elo Rating Wins Losses Run Diff. Make Playoffs Win Division Win World Series Nationals 1548 34 26 +36 61% 42% 7% Mets 1529 32 28 +15 41 23 3 Braves 1528 32 28 +15 41 22 3 Phillies 1503 29 31 -7 22 10 1 Marlins 1457 25 35 -46 5 2 <1 Based on 100,000 simulations of the 2020 MLB season. Sources: Baseball prospectus, Fangraphs, Clay Davenport
The reigning champion Washington Nationals remain in a strong position entering the shortened 2020 season. Staff ace Max Scherzer has enjoyed seven-straight top-five Cy Young finishes and shows little sign of slowing. Last season, in his age-34 campaign, he led the NL and posted personal bests in fielding-independent pitching (2.45) and strikeouts per nine innings (12.7). Scherzer is backed by fellow elite starters Stephen Strasburg — whom the Nationals retained for what was briefly a record deal for a pitcher — and Patrick Corbin, a 2019 free agent signee who outproduced departed star Bryce Harper last season (4.8 wins above replacement to 4.6). They give the Nationals what projects to be one of the top rotations in the NL. While the Nationals did lose star Anthony Rendon to free agency, Juan Soto could be on the cusp of becoming the most feared hitter in the league: Last year, he became the first batter in MLB history to post an on-base percentage of at least .400 in his age-19 and -20 seasons. The Nationals aren’t without their question marks, particularly their bullpen, which struggled mightily last season — though they did add right-handed reliever Will Harris in free agency.
The New York Mets do not lack for elite pitching, with Jacob deGrom coming off back-to-back Cy Young Awards. DeGrom’s combination of velocity, command and assortment of three plus pitches is just about peerless. For three straight seasons, Michael Conforto’s sweet left-handed swing has produced at least a 120 weighted runs created plus, which adjusts for the ballpark and the run-scoring environment in any given year, meaning that he’s been 20 percent better than league-average offensive performance. But the Mets still have a number of question marks. Can Brandon Nimmo enjoy a full season and flirt with a .400 OBP? Can Robinson Cano bounce back at age 37 after his worst season since 2008? Can Edwin Diaz rediscover the success he had with the Seattle Mariners? And, after an injury scare for deGrom, the biggest question might be: Can everyone stay healthy?
[Related: Baseball Will Be Weird This Year. But The Astros And Yankees Are Favorites In The American League … Again.]
While we consider the Atlanta Braves to be a postseason contender, other projection systems see the Braves as a favorite to win the NL East. The team has the strongest position-player group in the division, according to FanGraphs, and trails only the Los Angeles Dodgers in projected position-player production. Braves MVP candidate Ronald Acuña Jr. just missed a 40-40 season a year ago; Acuña, Freddie Freeman and Ozzie Albies each provided more than 4 wins above replacement for the season. As for pitching, Atlanta should have a quality rotation, though given his modest strikeout rate, it’s not clear if Mike Soroka can repeat his 2019 performance.
The Philadelphia Phillies loaded up on stars before the 2019 season, with their signing of Bryce Harper to a record contract as the centerpiece. What they got was a disappointing 81-81 record and a fourth-place finish. Harper ended up posting a mark of 4.6 WAR, good for 26th in MLB, but Philadelphia might worry that his best seasons are behind him: His strikeout rate has inched up for three consecutive seasons, and he’s now five years removed from truly elite production when he won the NL MVP in 2015. J.T. Realmuto is still projected as one of the best catchers in baseball, and he was last year in his first year with the Phillies, but staff ace Aaron Nola took a step backward last season, and it’s not clear how Andrew McCutchen will perform coming off knee surgery. The Phillies will also be looking to get more from free agent signee Zack Wheeler’s raw tools (elite velocity and above-average spin rate) than the Mets did.
The Miami Marlins, in the midst of a deep rebuild with what we project to be the second-worst run differential in the NL, have improved their farm system, which had been one of the worst in baseball. The Marlins also roster some intriguing major league talent they hope can show growth. Second baseman Isan Diaz has a swing that resembles his idol Robinson Cano. He hit .305 with 26 home runs in 102 Triple-A games last year. Pitcher Caleb Smith has elite spin and movement, allowing him to strike out better than a batter per inning for his three-year career. The speedy and versatile Jonathan Villar is moving to the outfield and could be a trade candidate. And catcher Jorge Alfaro is just one year removed from a 3-WAR season.
How Elo is forecasting the NL Central race Avg. Simulated Season Chance to… Team Elo Rating Wins Losses Run Diff. Make Playoffs Win Division Win World Series Reds 1522 32 28 +18 44% 27% 3% Cubs 1524 32 28 +16 41 25 3 Brewers 1522 31 29 +13 40 23 3 Cardinals 1514 31 29 +11 37 21 2 Pirates 1468 26 34 -33 8 4 <1 Based on 100,000 simulations of the 2020 MLB season. Sources: Baseball prospectus, Fangraphs, Clay Davenport
The NL Central race figures to be one of the most wide-open contests in baseball this year, with our model projecting four teams finishing within a game of first place. The team with the best chance of winning the division (at 27 percent) is the Cincinnati Reds, who haven’t appeared in the postseason since their 2013 wild-card game loss. Emerging homegrown ace Luis Castillo, one of the top strikeout pitchers in the game, was joined last year by Sonny Gray and Trevor Bauer to form a potential quality rotation. While Bauer struggled last year, he is just one season removed from finishing sixth in AL Cy Young voting. Gray enjoyed his best season by WAR under pitching coaches Derek Johnson and Caleb Cotham, leaning on an excellent curveball and slider — both of which were well above average. Offensively, while Joey Votto looks to be in decline, the Reds have one of the more underrated players in the game in third base slugger Eugenio Suárez, who crushed 49 home runs last year and has had three straight years of 3.9 WAR or better. Suárez is fully recovered from a late winter shoulder injury.
The Chicago Cubs once looked as if they were on the cusp of a dynasty, winning the 2016 title with a young, elite core of position players. While that group remains strong, the Cubs have struggled to develop their own pitching. The team spent heavily — in dollars and prospects — to put together its rotation: Yu Darvish, Tyler Chatwood, Jose Quintana (acquired in a deal that sent Eloy Jimenez across town) and Jon Lester were all acquired via trade or free agency. Chicago’s rotation projects as just the 17th best in baseball, and only Darvish projects to post a sub-4.00 ERA. The Cubs will try to bounce back from last season’s disappointing finish under a new manager, former Chicago catcher David Ross, who replaced Joe Maddon after he and the club parted ways and he then joined the Angels.
[Related: Our 2020 MLB Predictions]
The Milwaukee Brewers have enjoyed Christian Yelich’s growth into a superstar, changing from an extreme ground-ball hitter to one who more often lifts pitches and slugs them. And the club is hoping that another star-caliber player emerges in second-year second baseman Keston Hiura. He has a number of tools that include incredible bat speed, though he also had some swing-and-miss issues last season as a rookie. The Brewers added former top Padres prospect Luis Urias in an offseason trade and could end up with one of the best young middle infields in baseball — though they have to hope that Urias’s first underwhelming 300 plate appearances in the majors will be his worst after a stellar minor league career in which he demonstrated all five tools.
The St. Louis Cardinals have developed a new ace in Jack Flaherty, who produced the lowest ERA in the majors in the second half of last season (0.91). The 24-year-old has three plus pitches in his four-seam and two-seam fastballs and breaking ball. However, the Cardinals were just 10th in the NL in runs scored last season, and with key contributors Paul Goldshmidt, Yadier Molina and Matt Carpenter all on the wrong side of 30, it’s not clear how much upside resides in the group. Only the Brewers and Giants had older position players last season.
Every NL Central team appears to have a shot at the division, save for the Pittsburgh Pirates and their new regime led by general manager Ben Cherington and manager Derek Shelton. The Pirates appear headed for a retooling season in part because their starting rotation is depleted. Jameson Taillon is still rehabbing from Tommy John surgery, and Chris Archer, acquired in what is shaping up to be one of the worst trades in recent memory, is also out for the season.
How Elo is forecasting the NL West race Avg. Simulated Season Chance to… Team Elo Rating Wins Losses Run Diff. Make Playoffs Win Division Win World Series Dodgers 1584 37 23 +68 85% 72% 20% D-backs 1512 30 30 +3 29 11 1 Padres 1502 30 30 -3 25 10 1 Rockies 1489 28 32 -17 16 5 <1 Giants 1454 25 35 -48 4 1 <1 Based on 100,000 simulations of the 2020 MLB season. Sources: Baseball prospectus, Fangraphs, Clay Davenport
Even with David Price sitting out the season because of concerns amid the coronavirus pandemic, the Los Angeles Dodgers are clear favorites according to our projections. The Dodgers, winners of seven-straight division titles and two of the last three NL pennants, return a lineup with stalwarts like Cody Bellinger, Max Muncy, Justin Turner and Corey Seager, and they added a star in a trade for Mookie Betts. Los Angeles also has a deep system with potential future stars ready to contribute, like infielder Gavin Lux, one of the top prospects in the game, and catcher Will Smith, who hit 35 combined home runs between Triple-A and the majors last season. Only the Astros project to produce more position player wins above replacement than the Dodgers. And despite the free agent departure of Hyun-Jin Ryu, who left L.A. for Toronto, the Dodgers have plenty of firepower in their rotation in long-time ace Clayton Kershaw and an emerging No. 1 pitcher in Walker Buehler. Among all starting pitchers in the second half of last season, only Scherzer had a superior FIP mark than that of electric-armed Buehler. The Dodgers project to produce the fourth most pitching value in this shortened season.
The Arizona Diamondbacks were in the wild-card hunt a year ago and added Madison Bumgarner, Starling Marte and Kole Calhoun in the offseason to bolster their rotation and lineup. Bumgarner posted 3.2 WAR last year with the Giants after two injury-shortened seasons, and he could give the team a No. 1 pitching option. Strikeout artists Robbie Ray and Zac Gallen provide the Diamondbacks with a deep rotation.
[Related: How Our MLB Predictions Work]
The San Diego Padres are a young team on the rise, one that could exceed expectations. The Padres had the youngest position-player group in the NL last season, with an average age of 26.2 years old, and they boast the top farm system in the NL — even after the graduation of Fernando Tatis Jr. last season. Tatis Jr. looks like a potential superstar: In his debut year, he produced an offensive performance that was 50 percent above league average, with a 150 wRC+ mark. He belted 22 homers and stole 16 bases in a partial season while displaying a powerful arm at shortstop. A sleeper NL Cy Young candidate is ace Chris Paddack, who was limited to 140 ⅔ innings as a rookie last season by the cautious Padres. Paddack employed excellent command of a swing-and-miss changeup and fastball and finished 17th in strikeout minus walk percentage among all pitchers who tossed at least 100 innings. If an improved curveball becomes a better option for him, Paddack could ascend from being very good to great.
The Colorado Rockies were a wild-card team in 2018, but their pitching fell off last season: Their ERA+, which adjusts for ballpark factors and league scoring environment, was an above-average 109 in 2018 but a below-average 94 last season. Even at mile-high altitude, pitching will be key to any success for the Rockies, given that they project to have some of the poorest production in the majors at catcher, first base, left field and center field, according to FanGraphs.
While the majority of the NL West will attempt to be competitive in 2020, the San Francisco Giants are still in retooling mode, with a new manager in Gabe Kapler. The Giants will also be without the longtime face of their franchise in Buster Posey, who is electing to sit out the season due to COVID-19 concerns related to his family. Top catching prospect Joey Bart, a former No. 2 overall pick, is the heir apparent to Posey; he has had a good summer camp, but he may not get much, if any, major league time in 2020.
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fivethirthyeight--2020-07-22--How Can A Senator Vote With Trump Most Of The Time And Still Be A Moderate?

A number of GOP senators — especially those from states that backed Hillary Clinton in 2016 — are in competitive reelection fights in 2020 , including Sens .
Cory Gardner of Colorado and Susan Collins of Maine .
In their campaign pitches , these senators have been presenting themselves as moderates worthy of representing moderate states , using words and phrases like “ bipartisan , ” “ building consensus ” and “ both sides of the aisle.
” But just how moderate are Gardner and Collins anyway ?
That question is surprisingly difficult to answer , as it really depends @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
That is , someone like Gardner can both vote with President Trump on nearly all major issues and still be one of the three most bipartisan members of the Senate .
The same is true of Collins .
At the risk of getting a little bit wonky , I want to dig into three of the most commonly used metrics for measuring a senator ’ s ideology to show you how each of them can be spun .
Let ’ s first start with a metric that FiveThirtyEight has developed , the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ senator or representative votes in line with what Trump wants .
According to this metric , Collins has voted with Trump 67 percent of the time in the past three and a half years , while Gardner has done so 89 percent of the time .
This is one of the easier metrics to grasp , and if you don ’ t like Trump , someone who does what he wants two times out of three — or nine times out of ten — doesn ’ t sound so great .
But what @ @ @ @ @ @ @ For starters , the president is not a member of the Senate .
So one limitation of this metric is that it can ’ t determine whether a senator agrees with the president unless the president announces his preferences on a bill .
And that ’ s a fairly big caveat , because more often than not , presidents don ’ t publicly state an opinion on individual bills .
What ’ s more , the bills the White House does weigh in on aren ’ t a random sample of all bills @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , the president supports bills that are a priority for him or for his party — in other words , they ’ re usually bills his party largely agrees on .
And bills the president doesn ’ t like often don ’ t reach the Senate floor for a vote anyway , since Republicans control the chamber .
That means we would expect agreement with the president to be pretty high among members of his party .
And as the chart below shows , most Republican senators agree with Trump most of the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Trump at least 80 percent of the time .
Even someone like Sen. Mitt Romney , who voted to remove the president from office just a few months ago , still votes with Trump 81 percent of the time .
Collins ’ s 67 percent is the lowest Trump score among GOP senators .
Gardner ’ s 89 percent is just below the median score of 92 .
But is how often a senator votes with Trump a good measure of his or her overall ideology ?
Only sort of .
On the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to do an OK job of identifying more moderate Republicans like Collins or Sen. Lisa Murkowski , but on the other hand , it isn ’ t very good at identifying other ideological splits in the party .
Sens .
Rand Paul and Mike Lee , for example , have something of a libertarian bent , but their Trump scores are similar to those of Collins and Murkowski , who are moderates .
We know about these shortcomings thanks to one of political science ’ s most widely accepted measures of legislator ideology @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for each member of Congress from every roll call vote cast in a legislative session .
Of course , these scores aren ’ t perfect either , as they ’ re heavily influenced by which bills actually get to the floor and which don ’ t , but they ’ re still useful for helping us distinguish conservatives from liberals from moderates .
[ Related : An Updating Estimate Of The Congressional Generic Ballot ] For instance , if we compare Republican senators ’ Trump scores to their DW-Nominate scores , we find @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s agenda to some extent , so there isn ’ t much difference between the two scores for most GOP senators .
However , DW-Nominate shows us that there are two types of Republicans who buck the mainstream of the party : relative moderates like Collins and libertarian conservatives like Paul .
But this still doesn ’ t tell us very much about senators ’ claims to bipartisanship , or how someone like Gardner — who is a mainstream conservative according to both his Trump score and his DW-Nominate score — can be @ @ @ @ @ @ @ most bipartisan senators .
This is where our third metric for understanding senators ’ behavior comes in : The Bipartisan Index , calculated by the Lugar Center and Georgetown University ’ s McCourt School of Public Policy , tells us how often a senator cosponsors a bill with a member of the other party .
Notably , this index isn ’ t based on a senator ’ s voting record .
That doesn ’ t mean the metric isn ’ t influenced by a senator ’ s moderation or conservativism , though .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ scores against their DW-Nominate scores in the chart below , and although I did find a strong relationship between more moderate members co-sponsoring more cross-party bills ( see Collins , who by and large leads on this metric ) , that wasn ’ t true of every Republican : Senators like Gardner and Rob Portman cosponsored bills across party lines more often than their voting record would suggest .
Gardner , for instance , has co-sponsored a bill by Sen. Elizabeth Warren that aims to protect veterans who work in the marijuana industry @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Colorado constituents as marijuana is legal there ) as well as a number of bills authored by his fellow Coloradan , Sen. Michael Bennet , this session .
He ’ s even joined Collins and many others in co-sponsoring Democratic Sen. Ed Markey ’ s bill to make Juneteenth a national holiday .
But how much does this metric really speak to Gardner ’ s or Collins ’ s bipartisan track record ?
Many of these co-sponsorships are largely symbolic : Most Democrat-authored bills are not going anywhere in the Republican-controlled Senate right @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that .
So senators risk very little by attaching their names to such measures , and they get to claim bipartisan records regardless of their actual voting behavior .
In the case of Gardner and Collins , they probably hope these gestures across the aisle will help them in their reelection battles .
To be clear , though , when senators like Collins or Gardner say they have a strong record of being moderate or bipartisan while critics say they still usually vote with Trump , neither group is wrong .
They ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ behavior .
And as you ’ ve hopefully learned from this article , there are quite a few ways to measure ideology .

How Can A Senator Vote With Trump Most Of The Time And Still Be A Moderate? It all depends on how you measure their ideology.
A number of GOP senators — especially those from states that backed Hillary Clinton in 2016 — are in competitive reelection fights in 2020, including Sens. Cory Gardner of Colorado and Susan Collins of Maine. In their campaign pitches, these senators have been presenting themselves as moderates worthy of representing moderate states, using words and phrases like “bipartisan,” “building consensus” and “both sides of the aisle.”
But just how moderate are Gardner and Collins anyway?
That question is surprisingly difficult to answer, as it really depends on what senatorial behavior is being examined. That is, someone like Gardner can both vote with President Trump on nearly all major issues and still be one of the three most bipartisan members of the Senate. The same is true of Collins. At the risk of getting a little bit wonky, I want to dig into three of the most commonly used metrics for measuring a senator’s ideology to show you how each of them can be spun.
Let’s first start with a metric that FiveThirtyEight has developed, the Trump score, or how often a senator or representative votes in line with what Trump wants. According to this metric, Collins has voted with Trump 67 percent of the time in the past three and a half years, while Gardner has done so 89 percent of the time. This is one of the easier metrics to grasp, and if you don’t like Trump, someone who does what he wants two times out of three — or nine times out of ten — doesn’t sound so great.
But what do these scores actually tell us?
[Related: How Popular Is President Donald Trump?]
For starters, the president is not a member of the Senate. So one limitation of this metric is that it can’t determine whether a senator agrees with the president unless the president announces his preferences on a bill. And that’s a fairly big caveat, because more often than not, presidents don’t publicly state an opinion on individual bills. What’s more, the bills the White House does weigh in on aren’t a random sample of all bills that reach the Senate floor. Typically, the president supports bills that are a priority for him or for his party — in other words, they’re usually bills his party largely agrees on. And bills the president doesn’t like often don’t reach the Senate floor for a vote anyway, since Republicans control the chamber.
That means we would expect agreement with the president to be pretty high among members of his party. And as the chart below shows, most Republican senators agree with Trump most of the time; all but four vote with Trump at least 80 percent of the time. Even someone like Sen. Mitt Romney, who voted to remove the president from office just a few months ago, still votes with Trump 81 percent of the time. Collins’s 67 percent is the lowest Trump score among GOP senators. Gardner’s 89 percent is just below the median score of 92.
But is how often a senator votes with Trump a good measure of his or her overall ideology? Only sort of. On the one hand, the measure does seem to do an OK job of identifying more moderate Republicans like Collins or Sen. Lisa Murkowski, but on the other hand, it isn’t very good at identifying other ideological splits in the party. Sens. Rand Paul and Mike Lee, for example, have something of a libertarian bent, but their Trump scores are similar to those of Collins and Murkowski, who are moderates.
We know about these shortcomings thanks to one of political science’s most widely accepted measures of legislator ideology: DW-Nominate scores, which are compiled for each member of Congress from every roll call vote cast in a legislative session. Of course, these scores aren’t perfect either, as they’re heavily influenced by which bills actually get to the floor and which don’t, but they’re still useful for helping us distinguish conservatives from liberals from moderates.
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For instance, if we compare Republican senators’ Trump scores to their DW-Nominate scores, we find that nearly all Republicans back Trump’s agenda to some extent, so there isn’t much difference between the two scores for most GOP senators. However, DW-Nominate shows us that there are two types of Republicans who buck the mainstream of the party: relative moderates like Collins and libertarian conservatives like Paul.
But this still doesn’t tell us very much about senators’ claims to bipartisanship, or how someone like Gardner — who is a mainstream conservative according to both his Trump score and his DW-Nominate score — can be called one of the chamber’s most bipartisan senators. This is where our third metric for understanding senators’ behavior comes in: The Bipartisan Index, calculated by the Lugar Center and Georgetown University’s McCourt School of Public Policy, tells us how often a senator cosponsors a bill with a member of the other party. Notably, this index isn’t based on a senator’s voting record.
That doesn’t mean the metric isn’t influenced by a senator’s moderation or conservativism, though. I plotted GOP senators’ bipartisan index scores against their DW-Nominate scores in the chart below, and although I did find a strong relationship between more moderate members co-sponsoring more cross-party bills (see Collins, who by and large leads on this metric), that wasn’t true of every Republican: Senators like Gardner and Rob Portman cosponsored bills across party lines more often than their voting record would suggest.
Gardner, for instance, has co-sponsored a bill by Sen. Elizabeth Warren that aims to protect veterans who work in the marijuana industry (obviously important to Gardner’s Colorado constituents as marijuana is legal there) as well as a number of bills authored by his fellow Coloradan, Sen. Michael Bennet, this session. He’s even joined Collins and many others in co-sponsoring Democratic Sen. Ed Markey’s bill to make Juneteenth a national holiday.
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But how much does this metric really speak to Gardner’s or Collins’s bipartisan track record? Many of these co-sponsorships are largely symbolic: Most Democrat-authored bills are not going anywhere in the Republican-controlled Senate right now, and Gardner and Collins know that. So senators risk very little by attaching their names to such measures, and they get to claim bipartisan records regardless of their actual voting behavior. In the case of Gardner and Collins, they probably hope these gestures across the aisle will help them in their reelection battles.
To be clear, though, when senators like Collins or Gardner say they have a strong record of being moderate or bipartisan while critics say they still usually vote with Trump, neither group is wrong. They’re just examining different aspects of lawmakers’ behavior. And as you’ve hopefully learned from this article, there are quite a few ways to measure ideology.
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