fivethirthyeight--2020-11-30--Week 12 Taught Us That NFL Teams Really Do Need Quarterbacks

sara.ziegler ( Sara Ziegler , sports editor ) : It was a wild weekend of football , on and off the field : coach and GM firings , a game postponement , a rookie Carolina safety scoring fumble-return touchdowns on back-to-back defensive plays against the Vikings .
🙄 But Week 12 of the NFL season will certainly be remembered as the week when the pandemic was bad enough that a team took the field without an actual quarterback at starting quarterback .
( It faced another team not starting a quarterback , but that one was on purpose . )
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ one of their quarterbacks , the Denver Broncos called up wide receiver Kendall Hinton from the practice squad , gave him the playbook and wished him well against the New Orleans Saints .
Guys , what were you expecting out of that game … and did it deliver ?
neil ( Neil Paine , senior sportswriter ) : Watching that Broncos no-QB offense operate … cue the Arrested Development “ idk what I was expecting ” gif .
It would have been a great story if Hinton had led them to victory .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ that the Broncos won a playoff game with Tim Tebow .
But alas , they were doomed from the start .
joshua.hermsmeyer ( Josh Hermsmeyer , NFL analyst ) : We all know it was bad , but I don ’ t think I ’ ve ever seen a Total Quarterback Rating of 1.8 until this weekend .
That is — unsurprisingly — the lowest of the year .
Salfino ( Michael Salfino , FiveThirtyEight contributor ) : It sounded like it would be fun , like when the Colts famously had to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ QB in the 1960s .
But I worried it would be a slog and an embarrassment , and that is what that game was .
It was one of the NFL ’ s worst moments .
They ’ ll be writing about this decision forever .
neil : And on the other side , Taysom Hill is not exactly Joe Montana , either .
This was only the third time since 1982 that two teams combined for 75 or fewer passing yards in a game .
The other two were both Week 17 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ Sullivan — but I guess this also had some real Week 17 energy , QB-wise .
Salfino : I will say that the plan for Hill had to be to basically do no harm since it was going to be impossible for the Broncos to score legitimately .
neil : Can ’ t say I feel too bad for the Broncos , though .
They should have worn masks , and they also should have seen this coming .
Each team needs a QB version of the “ designated survivor.
” joshua.hermsmeyer @ @ @ @ @ @ @ football on Sunday , but I don ’ t think Bunker Mark Sanchez could have saved it .
Salfino : “ Bunker Mark Sanchez ” should be a band name or something , I think the right thing to do would have been to suspend the game and fine the Broncos a second-round pick .
You have to respect the sport .
sara.ziegler : What really should have happened is the Saints should have lent Jameis Winston to the Broncos since they refuse to use him themselves .
neil : It ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ hockey .
sara.ziegler : I ’ m just saying , people would have paid to see that .
neil : Oh , it would have been great .
“ Bench me ?
For Taysom Hill ?
?
?
Take that , Sean Payton !
” Salfino : Winston probably would have thrown six picks .
Or pick-sixes .
sara.ziegler : But he would have had more than six completions… Salfino : According to ESPN ’ s Stats & Information Group , the Broncos were the first team since Ryan Leaf and the Chargers @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
neil : Never wan na be drawing comparisons to Ryan Leaf .
Surely Hinton ’ s NFL QB career is over now .
sara.ziegler : As opposed to the promise it had shown before .
joshua.hermsmeyer : My understanding is that the Broncos staff didn ’ t know he was on the team in the first place , so that probably checks out .
Salfino : Was Hinton even as bad as Nathan Peterman , who still has a backup job , ironically on the team now with QB questions again .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ Hinton and Peterman both had QB ratings of 0.0 in their worst starts .
sara.ziegler : Hey , Peterman was 3 for 5 on Sunday for the Raiders — with ZERO interceptions .
Salfino : Exactly !
An upgrade over Derek Carr .
sara.ziegler : The Broncos game did have playoff implications , with New Orleans currently the top seed in the NFC .
What do you all think : Are the Saints the best team in the conference ?
neil : With Drew Brees ?
Probably .
Who else is there ?
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ the Packers .
I think what they did against a solid Bears pass defense was pretty great on Sunday night .
They ’ re second in the league in expected points added ( EPA ) per play as well , behind the Chiefs .
Salfino : I thought the Rams were the best team , but then they laid a stinker .
That wasn ’ t surprising on offense , but on defense , they decided to not put Jalen Ramsey on the one legit wide receiver on the field for the 49ers @ @ @ @ @ @ @ yeah , it has to be the Saints now .
joshua.hermsmeyer : I believe the numbers 12 weeks in !
neil : Rodgers ’ s numbers on play-action this season are so sick : 16 touchdowns , 0 interceptions , 74 percent completions , 0 sacks , 8.7 yards per attempt and a 139.2 passer rating .
Salfino : I think the Packers offense is legit good , but at some point , any defense is going to pretty much give up when the offense is hopeless and they ’ re losing — @ @ @ @ @ @ @ happened on Sunday to the Bears on the road .
If they were home with fans , maybe it would have been a different story .
sara.ziegler : The Bears were also missing Akiem Hicks , which couldn ’ t have helped .
Salfino : Imagine you ’ re the defense waiting for the cavalry and here comes Mitch Trubisky .
neil : Same as he ever was , LOL Salfino : At least Trubisky isn ’ t undefeated this year anymore , which was annoying .
joshua.hermsmeyer : The Bears were once @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
But , to me , the biggest collapse in NFL history is the 1986 Jets , who were 10-1 and finished 10-6 .
They still should have gone to the AFC Championship that game , save for the famous Mark Gastineau roughing the passer .
Don ’ t get me started !
neil : “ This Week In Jets History ” is brought to you by the letter L. sara.ziegler : The Jets give us a nice segue into our recurring segment , Coaches Who Were Fired !
Amazingly , Adam Gase @ @ @ @ @ @ @ everyone else has been so lucky .
neil : I mean , why would you fire Gase now and risk going on a run with the interim coach ?
But the Detroit Lions did clean house this weekend , giving coach Matt Patricia and general manager Bob Quinn the boot after a lackluster Thanksgiving performance , while the Jacksonville Jaguars let go of GM Dave Caldwell after the team lost for the 10th time in 11 tries .
joshua.hermsmeyer : After Patricia was fired , the public unburdening of grievances by former ( @ @ @ @ @ @ @ media was something to see .
neil : I never would have guessed he was not well liked !
sara.ziegler : I was amazed at the open celebration from Lions players .
That ’ s really extraordinary in this league !
Salfino : Both moves were long overdue .
I think Patricia would need to win 24 in a row to have a better record than Jim Caldwell , who was fired before him ?
And the Jaguars have been a draft disaster even worse than the Jets for Dave Caldwell ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ think of a pick that went right .
neil : I ’ m just shocked Doug Marrone was not let go as well .
Salfino : I think Marrone is probably no worse than an average coach .
But he ’ s going to get fired .
No way around it .
Coaching can ’ t overcome horrific drafting .
neil : I thought more highly of Marrone when he was leading the Bills to 9-7 , back when that was a huge deal .
Now we know the Bills can do way @ @ @ @ @ @ @ wonder if the Caldwell move — which is slightly strange timing — is to get a jump on the GM hiring process .
I suppose there ’ s not much else for a lame duck to do at this point in the year , so maybe it ’ s a sharp move .
Salfino : You probably know this better than me , Josh , but who can the Jaguars hire until the draft is over ?
Can ’ t teams block even underlings until then ?
joshua.hermsmeyer : Hiring from other teams @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of the world are just sitting out there , ripe for the picking !
sara.ziegler : Any early predictions on who becomes the next coach in Detroit ?
joshua.hermsmeyer : Eric Bieniemy makes sense for a whole host of reasons .
Salfino : Yeah , Bieniemy has to be the guy .
But you ’ re stepping into a really bad situation with no QB really to build around .
And their pick this year is not going to be that good .
I don ’ t know how deep the QBs go @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
joshua.hermsmeyer : He also has a reputation for letting players express themselves .
Which would probably be a nice switch from Patricia .
neil : And , hey , Matt Stafford can make some Mahomesian throws sometimes .
Salfino : I think if the Lions try to middle the rebuild , they ’ re screwed .
Never take half measures when full measures are needed .
sara.ziegler : Don ’ t you think they could rebuild still around Stafford ?
He ’ s only 32 — that used to be old for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Salfino : That ’ s true .
But a rebuild takes three years , and then Stafford is 35 and you ’ re trying to rebuild paying a franchise QB ?
Seems half-baked .
I don ’ t think Stafford is trash by any means , BTW .
neil : Does a rebuild take three years if you already have a decent QB and far superior coaching ?
I guess I ’ m just saying that I wouldn ’ t be shocked if Stafford had another act left in him .
joshua.hermsmeyer : @ @ @ @ @ @ @ or three in those three years , but I tend to agree , Neil .
This is a decent situation .
neil : Certainly better than some of the other jobs that will be open for Bieniemy to consider .
( Hi , Jets . )
Salfino : I would have thought that you , Josh , would be more in for a tank .
Trading Stafford for a No .
1. joshua.hermsmeyer : Stafford seems like the right QB to HODL .
You could luckbox into a deep playoff run — you @ @ @ @ @ @ @ you don ’ t look incompetent and you can try to get the next QB aggressively in the draft .
Salfino : Remember that the Lions are going to have to give Kenny Golladay $ 20 million a year now , too , if they don ’ t tear it up .
That ’ s a lot of cap .
And the cap is going to go down .
joshua.hermsmeyer : He ’ s making $ 2 million !
Is this one of those wild Salfino predictions ?
Salfino : Golladay is going @ @ @ @ @ @ @ t he ?
He ’ s a free agent in March .
To be clear , I sure wouldn ’ t sign him .
But if you ’ re playing for now , I ’ d think they would .
joshua.hermsmeyer : Narrator : Despite the salary-cap drop , the Lions new GM made Kenny Golladay the fifth-highest-paid WR in the league , crippling the team .
Again .
The Lions aren ’ t even technically out of the playoff hunt this year !
Maybe now that Patricia is gone , they ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Salfino : There could be an eighth seed by Tuesday .
neil : The Lions have a 92 percent playoff chance if they run the table , per our model !
That would bring their record to 9-7 .
This being the Lions , I would also accept 7-9 .
But nothing else .
sara.ziegler : I love that weirdness about them .
My money for a late playoff contender , though , is on the Falcons .
They dismantled the Raiders .
neil : Has any team ever looked more different @ @ @ @ @ @ @ You go from hanging with the Chiefs to just being totally embarrassed by the Falcons .
Salfino : Derek Carr threw a pick-six and lost three fumbles , which is crazy .
neil : Josh , you had a stat where the Raiders offense actually averaged fewer EPA per play than the no-QB Broncos , right ?
joshua.hermsmeyer : Thanks for teeing that up !
Yeah , I was shocked to see that the Broncos ’ offense was not the worst in the league yesterday on an EPA/play basis .
That honor went @ @ @ @ @ @ @ seems … not even possible .
Salfino : Do the turnovers have a big impact here ?
I wouldn ’ t think they would per play .
neil : They do seem to have made a big difference in EPA .
According to Pro-Football-Reference ’ s EPA model , the Raiders ’ turnovers cost them 28.1 points !
Denver ’ s cost “ only ” 12.8 .
Salfino : Are Carr ’ s hands too small ?
Or is this fake news , its impact on QB fumbling ?
This was a major @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
joshua.hermsmeyer : Hand size is one of those things that I laugh off or take seriously depending on how I feel that day .
neil : Whatever the cause , Carr ’ s fumbles are definitely an issue .
He led the league in 2018 , and he ’ s leading again this season .
He ’ s already at 11 , or averaging 1 per start , this year .
That makes four seasons with double-digit fumbles in his career .
joshua.hermsmeyer : Apropos of the Hawks game tonight and the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of historical trivia : neil : Love that .
And speaking of Carr ’ s fumbles , Dave Krieg , patron saint of fumbling QBs , started that game for Seattle .
Salfino : Also apropos of nothing , the Patrick Mahomes-Tyreek Hill show was historic on Sunday .
Looks like Mahomes is the slam-dunk MVP .
He ’ s the Mike Trout of football — so reliably great , he ’ s boring us .
It kind of felt like the GOAT torch was passed from Tom Brady to Mahomes .
( @ @ @ @ @ @ @ . )
neil : I did love the announcers hinting that Mahomes would want to rack up as many head-to-head wins vs. Brady as possible for the eventual GOAT debate .
Ya got ta think ahead .
neil : In fairness , Hill was probably just talking about Mahomes there .
Isn ’ t Mahomes great ?
Love him .

Week 12 Taught Us That NFL Teams Really Do Need Quarterbacks
sara.ziegler (Sara Ziegler, sports editor): It was a wild weekend of football, on and off the field: coach and GM firings, a game postponement, a rookie Carolina safety scoring fumble-return touchdowns on back-to-back defensive plays against the Vikings. 🙄
But Week 12 of the NFL season will certainly be remembered as the week when the pandemic was bad enough that a team took the field without an actual quarterback at starting quarterback. (It faced another team not starting a quarterback, but that one was on purpose.) After a COVID-19 protocol violation disqualified every one of their quarterbacks, the Denver Broncos called up wide receiver Kendall Hinton from the practice squad, gave him the playbook and wished him well against the New Orleans Saints. Guys, what were you expecting out of that game … and did it deliver?
neil (Neil Paine, senior sportswriter): Watching that Broncos no-QB offense operate … cue the Arrested Development “idk what I was expecting” gif.
It would have been a great story if Hinton had led them to victory. Snarky people on Twitter were pointing out that the Broncos won a playoff game with Tim Tebow. But alas, they were doomed from the start.
joshua.hermsmeyer (Josh Hermsmeyer, NFL analyst): We all know it was bad, but I don’t think I’ve ever seen a Total Quarterback Rating of 1.8 until this weekend. That is — unsurprisingly — the lowest of the year.
Salfino (Michael Salfino, FiveThirtyEight contributor): It sounded like it would be fun, like when the Colts famously had to plug in running back Tom Matte at QB in the 1960s. But I worried it would be a slog and an embarrassment, and that is what that game was. It was one of the NFL’s worst moments. They’ll be writing about this decision forever.
neil: And on the other side, Taysom Hill is not exactly Joe Montana, either. This was only the third time since 1982 that two teams combined for 75 or fewer passing yards in a game.
The other two were both Week 17 games — hello, J.T. O’Sullivan — but I guess this also had some real Week 17 energy, QB-wise.
Salfino: I will say that the plan for Hill had to be to basically do no harm since it was going to be impossible for the Broncos to score legitimately.
neil: Can’t say I feel too bad for the Broncos, though. They should have worn masks, and they also should have seen this coming. Each team needs a QB version of the “designated survivor.”
joshua.hermsmeyer: There was a lot of terrible football on Sunday, but I don’t think Bunker Mark Sanchez could have saved it.
Salfino: “Bunker Mark Sanchez” should be a band name or something,
I think the right thing to do would have been to suspend the game and fine the Broncos a second-round pick. You have to respect the sport.
sara.ziegler: What really should have happened is the Saints should have lent Jameis Winston to the Broncos since they refuse to use him themselves.
joshua.hermsmeyer: 😂
neil: It’s like the “house goalie” in hockey.
sara.ziegler: I’m just saying, people would have paid to see that.
neil: Oh, it would have been great. “Bench me? For Taysom Hill??? Take that, Sean Payton!”
Salfino: Winston probably would have thrown six picks. Or pick-sixes.
sara.ziegler: But he would have had more than six completions…
Salfino: According to ESPN’s Stats & Information Group, the Broncos were the first team since Ryan Leaf and the Chargers in 1998 with more interceptions than completions.
neil: Never wanna be drawing comparisons to Ryan Leaf. Surely Hinton’s NFL QB career is over now.
sara.ziegler: As opposed to the promise it had shown before.
neil: Right, LOL
joshua.hermsmeyer: My understanding is that the Broncos staff didn’t know he was on the team in the first place, so that probably checks out.
Salfino: Was Hinton even as bad as Nathan Peterman, who still has a backup job, ironically on the team now with QB questions again.
neil: Ooooh.
For what it’s worth, Hinton and Peterman both had QB ratings of 0.0 in their worst starts.
sara.ziegler: Hey, Peterman was 3 for 5 on Sunday for the Raiders — with ZERO interceptions.
Salfino: Exactly! An upgrade over Derek Carr.
joshua.hermsmeyer: Whew.
sara.ziegler: The Broncos game did have playoff implications, with New Orleans currently the top seed in the NFC. What do you all think: Are the Saints the best team in the conference?
neil: With Drew Brees? Probably. Who else is there? The Packers?
joshua.hermsmeyer: I like the Packers. I think what they did against a solid Bears pass defense was pretty great on Sunday night. They’re second in the league in expected points added (EPA) per play as well, behind the Chiefs.
Salfino: I thought the Rams were the best team, but then they laid a stinker. That wasn’t surprising on offense, but on defense, they decided to not put Jalen Ramsey on the one legit wide receiver on the field for the 49ers (Deebo Samuel). So, yeah, it has to be the Saints now.
neil: So, you’re a Rodgers believer again, Josh?
joshua.hermsmeyer: I believe the numbers 12 weeks in!
neil: Rodgers’s numbers on play-action this season are so sick: 16 touchdowns, 0 interceptions, 74 percent completions, 0 sacks, 8.7 yards per attempt and a 139.2 passer rating.
Salfino: I think the Packers offense is legit good, but at some point, any defense is going to pretty much give up when the offense is hopeless and they’re losing — and I think that’s what happened on Sunday to the Bears on the road. If they were home with fans, maybe it would have been a different story.
sara.ziegler: The Bears were also missing Akiem Hicks, which couldn’t have helped.
Salfino: Imagine you’re the defense waiting for the cavalry and here comes Mitch Trubisky.
sara.ziegler: LOLOL
Mitch is back, baby.
neil: Same as he ever was, LOL
Salfino: At least Trubisky isn’t undefeated this year anymore, which was annoying.
joshua.hermsmeyer: The Bears were once 5-1. Feels like a pre-COVID stat.
Salfino: The Bears collapse is historic:
After jumping out to a 5-1 start, the Bears have now lost 5 straight games. The Bears are the 2nd team in NFL history to lose 5 in a row immediately after winning at least 5 of their first 6 games. The 1967 49ers started 5-1 before losing their next 6 games H/T @EliasSports pic.twitter.com/ZxyedXc3in — ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) November 30, 2020
But, to me, the biggest collapse in NFL history is the 1986 Jets, who were 10-1 and finished 10-6. They still should have gone to the AFC Championship that game, save for the famous Mark Gastineau roughing the passer. Don’t get me started!
neil: “This Week In Jets History” is brought to you by the letter L.
sara.ziegler: 🤣
joshua.hermsmeyer:
Salfino: Legit Hall of Famer.
sara.ziegler: The Jets give us a nice segue into our recurring segment, Coaches Who Were Fired! Amazingly, Adam Gase has survived so far, but not everyone else has been so lucky.
neil: I mean, why would you fire Gase now and risk going on a run with the interim coach?
sara.ziegler: Fair point.
But the Detroit Lions did clean house this weekend, giving coach Matt Patricia and general manager Bob Quinn the boot after a lackluster Thanksgiving performance, while the Jacksonville Jaguars let go of GM Dave Caldwell after the team lost for the 10th time in 11 tries.
joshua.hermsmeyer: After Patricia was fired, the public unburdening of grievances by former (and current!) players on social media was something to see.
neil: I never would have guessed he was not well liked!
sara.ziegler: I was amazed at the open celebration from Lions players. That’s really extraordinary in this league!
Salfino: Both moves were long overdue. I think Patricia would need to win 24 in a row to have a better record than Jim Caldwell, who was fired before him? And the Jaguars have been a draft disaster even worse than the Jets for Dave Caldwell’s tenure. It’s hard to think of a pick that went right.
neil: I’m just shocked Doug Marrone was not let go as well.
Salfino: I think Marrone is probably no worse than an average coach. But he’s going to get fired. No way around it. Coaching can’t overcome horrific drafting.
neil: I thought more highly of Marrone when he was leading the Bills to 9-7, back when that was a huge deal. Now we know the Bills can do way better than that!
joshua.hermsmeyer: I wonder if the Caldwell move — which is slightly strange timing — is to get a jump on the GM hiring process. I suppose there’s not much else for a lame duck to do at this point in the year, so maybe it’s a sharp move.
Salfino: You probably know this better than me, Josh, but who can the Jaguars hire until the draft is over? Can’t teams block even underlings until then?
joshua.hermsmeyer: Hiring from other teams, sure. But the Mike Mayocks of the world are just sitting out there, ripe for the picking!
Salfino: Hahaha
sara.ziegler: Any early predictions on who becomes the next coach in Detroit?
joshua.hermsmeyer: Eric Bieniemy makes sense for a whole host of reasons.
Salfino: Yeah, Bieniemy has to be the guy. But you’re stepping into a really bad situation with no QB really to build around. And their pick this year is not going to be that good. I don’t know how deep the QBs go this year — no one really does.
joshua.hermsmeyer: He also has a reputation for letting players express themselves. Which would probably be a nice switch from Patricia.
neil: And, hey, Matt Stafford can make some Mahomesian throws sometimes.
Salfino: I think if the Lions try to middle the rebuild, they’re screwed. Never take half measures when full measures are needed.
sara.ziegler: Don’t you think they could rebuild still around Stafford? He’s only 32 — that used to be old for a quarterback, but not anymore.
Salfino: That’s true. But a rebuild takes three years, and then Stafford is 35 and you’re trying to rebuild paying a franchise QB? Seems half-baked.
I don’t think Stafford is trash by any means, BTW.
neil: Does a rebuild take three years if you already have a decent QB and far superior coaching? I guess I’m just saying that I wouldn’t be shocked if Stafford had another act left in him.
joshua.hermsmeyer: I think you certainly draft a QB or three in those three years, but I tend to agree, Neil. This is a decent situation.
neil: Certainly better than some of the other jobs that will be open for Bieniemy to consider. (Hi, Jets.)
Salfino: I would have thought that you, Josh, would be more in for a tank. Trading Stafford for a No. 1.
joshua.hermsmeyer: Stafford seems like the right QB to HODL. You could luckbox into a deep playoff run — you never know. But if not, you don’t look incompetent and you can try to get the next QB aggressively in the draft.
Salfino: Remember that the Lions are going to have to give Kenny Golladay $20 million a year now, too, if they don’t tear it up. That’s a lot of cap. And the cap is going to go down.
joshua.hermsmeyer: He’s making $2 million! Is this one of those wild Salfino predictions?
Salfino: Golladay is going to take franchise money, isn’t he? He’s a free agent in March. To be clear, I sure wouldn’t sign him. But if you’re playing for now, I’d think they would.
joshua.hermsmeyer: Narrator: Despite the salary-cap drop, the Lions new GM made Kenny Golladay the fifth-highest-paid WR in the league, crippling the team. Again.
sara.ziegler: LOL
The Lions aren’t even technically out of the playoff hunt this year! Maybe now that Patricia is gone, they’ll surge for that new seventh seed.
Salfino: There could be an eighth seed by Tuesday.
neil: The Lions have a 92 percent playoff chance if they run the table, per our model!
That would bring their record to 9-7. This being the Lions, I would also accept 7-9. But nothing else.
sara.ziegler: I love that weirdness about them.
My money for a late playoff contender, though, is on the Falcons. They dismantled the Raiders.
joshua.hermsmeyer: Yes, Sara!
neil: Has any team ever looked more different in back-to-back weeks than the Raiders? You go from hanging with the Chiefs to just being totally embarrassed by the Falcons.
Salfino: Derek Carr threw a pick-six and lost three fumbles, which is crazy.
neil: Josh, you had a stat where the Raiders offense actually averaged fewer EPA per play than the no-QB Broncos, right?
joshua.hermsmeyer: Thanks for teeing that up! Yeah, I was shocked to see that the Broncos’ offense was not the worst in the league yesterday on an EPA/play basis. That honor went to the Raiders.
neil: That seems … not even possible.
Salfino: Do the turnovers have a big impact here? I wouldn’t think they would per play.
neil: They do seem to have made a big difference in EPA. According to Pro-Football-Reference’s EPA model, the Raiders’ turnovers cost them 28.1 points! Denver’s cost “only” 12.8.
sara.ziegler: Yikes.
joshua.hermsmeyer: Whew.
Salfino: Are Carr’s hands too small? Or is this fake news, its impact on QB fumbling? This was a major criticism of Carr in the draft process.
joshua.hermsmeyer: Hand size is one of those things that I laugh off or take seriously depending on how I feel that day.
Salfino: Me too!
neil: Whatever the cause, Carr’s fumbles are definitely an issue. He led the league in 2018, and he’s leading again this season. He’s already at 11, or averaging 1 per start, this year. That makes four seasons with double-digit fumbles in his career.
joshua.hermsmeyer: Apropos of the Hawks game tonight and the Raiders discussion, here is this bit of historical trivia:
On this date in 1987, a gruntled Seahawks fan snuck the sea gull he had nursed back to health over the previous two months into the Kingdome with the mistaken impression that the bird would fly back to his seat after he released it. (Also Bo Jackson ran for 221 yards. Big deal.) pic.twitter.com/FiIBWUnLBm — Quirky Research (@QuirkyResearch) November 30, 2020
neil: Love that. And speaking of Carr’s fumbles, Dave Krieg, patron saint of fumbling QBs, started that game for Seattle.
Salfino: Also apropos of nothing, the Patrick Mahomes-Tyreek Hill show was historic on Sunday. Looks like Mahomes is the slam-dunk MVP. He’s the Mike Trout of football — so reliably great, he’s boring us.
It kind of felt like the GOAT torch was passed from Tom Brady to Mahomes. (Though Steve Young was really the GOAT.)
Hill was incredible:
Tyreek Hill is the third player with 200 receiving yards and 2 Rec TD in a single quarter over the last 40 years. The third is Qadry Ismail in the 3rd quarter on December 12, 1999. H/T @EliasSports — ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) November 29, 2020
neil: I did love the announcers hinting that Mahomes would want to rack up as many head-to-head wins vs. Brady as possible for the eventual GOAT debate. Ya gotta think ahead.
joshua.hermsmeyer: Posted without comment:
Just know good things happen to good people ✌🏿 — Ty Hill (@cheetah) November 30, 2020
sara.ziegler: Must. Not. Respond.
neil: In fairness, Hill was probably just talking about Mahomes there. Isn’t Mahomes great? Love him.
sara.ziegler: LOLOL
Check out our latest NFL predictions.


fivethirthyeight--2020-11-30--Why Are Free Throws So Much Harder To Come By In Wheelchair Basketball?

The rules of wheelchair basketball and the “ standup ” version of the sport are almost identical .
The court is the same length , the free-throw line is the same distance from the basket , as is the three-point line .
The only real difference in the wheelchair game , aside from the presence of high-tech equipment , is the ability to double dribble .
So it ’ s not much of a surprise that shooting stats in the two games are roughly similar , particularly on 2-point field goals .
The men ’ s Olympic team 2-point percentage @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Games was 52.16 percent , while the Paralympic average was 47.86 percent .
On the women ’ s side , the Paralympic athletes shot 2-point field goals at a 42.27 percent clip , while their able-bodied colleagues shot an average of 46.37 percent from inside the arc .
But there ’ s one glaring area where disabled athletes are far behind their able-bodied counterparts : free throws .
[ College Basketball Muddles Through The Pandemic Like Everyone Else ] To compare the two sports , I looked at the free throw rates on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s side of the 2016 Rio Olympic and Paralympic games , beginning with the women ’ s teams .
The wheelchair basketball athletes in this data set converted free throws at a rate 26.3 percentage points lower than the able-bodied athletes .
They also shot 6.8 fewer free throws per game , on average , over the course of the tournament .
Of the Paralympic women ’ s teams , just Germany attempted over 100 total free throws in the tournament , while the average Olympic team attempted 107.5 .
Only five @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Senegal , China and Brazil ) shot fewer free throws than Germany , and they all played fewer games .
The U.S. women ’ s Paralympic team , which won gold , was the only squad to shoot better than even one of the Olympic teams ( China ) — and only by 2.6 percentage points .
The equation on the men ’ s side is not much different .
The wheelchair basketball teams shot , on average , 8.9 fewer free throws per game and made them at a rate 17.5 percentage @ @ @ @ @ @ @ tournament .
Able-bodied male athletes attempted 8.9 more free throws compared to the disabled ones , and only three Olympic teams ( Lithuania , Nigeria and Venezuela ) shot fewer free throws over the course of the tournament than Germany ’ s Paralympic total of 108 .
Germany achieved that mark with at least one more game played than those teams .
So why the discrepancy ?
Some of it is naturally related to the hardware involved .
It is simply harder to get to the free throw line in a game of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Anderson puts it , “ One-on-one basketball with the ball , breaking a guy down one-on-one and getting to the basket and drawing a foul that way , James Harden being the preeminent example in the NBA — it ’ s just not done a lot in wheelchair basketball .
It ’ s hard to beat a guy off the dribble , in wheelchair basketball , because your hands are up to do a lot and chairs are wide and lateral movement is limited.
” This is most evident in the large difference @ @ @ @ @ @ @ between the two competitions .
In the men ’ s and women ’ s Olympic contests , teams averaged 18.9 free throws per game .
On the Paralympic side , it was only 11.2 .
Add the fact that teams rarely get into the bonus , and you have a recipe for fewer shots being taken .
But regardless of the disparity in the number of attempts , wheelchair basketball athletes still make their free throws at much lower rates .
Why ?
There may be a physiological reason .
A group of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ with those they called conventional athletes in 2015 , noticed a difference in muscle activations between the two groups .
Although the athletes are activating the same muscles in their arms , to no one ’ s surprise , the legs are a different matter .
In their words : “ Studies contend that the person ’ s height and leg thrust can influence the execution of the shot .
This gives the WB [ wheelchair basketball ] group a great disadvantage in free-throwing since they are down lower ( sitting ) and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Therefore , it is likely that the WB group adopts distinct strategies to make this movement.
” [ The NBA Champs Look More Dangerous Than Ever ] In practice , those strategies can include the placement of the shoulder as it rotates and extends , a small push or roll up to the line , or choosing a two-handed shot — closer to a set shot in standup basketball — over a more traditional shooting technique .
Wheelchair basketball athletes are using their arms for every single sport-related movement .
That amount @ @ @ @ @ @ @ free-throw rates .
Fewer shots and more tired arms equals less rhythm .
“ It ’ s a bit like biathlon .
… Your body ’ s humming , and then you ’ ve got to sort of quiet everything down , ” he said .
“ And , for us , because so much of our exertion is upper body , that ’ s the part of us that ’ s sort of , like , shaken and fatigued.
” Doug Garner , the head men ’ s wheelchair basketball coach at @ @ @ @ @ @ @ agrees .
“ If I had to name one factor , I would say it would be the fatigue factor , ” he said .
Garner also pointed to the inherent physical and spatial differences in using a wheelchair as reasons underlying the low attempted and completion rates , along with a perceived reluctance of referees to call shooting fouls and the different shooting angle and angle of ball entry that come with shooting from a wheelchair .
There ’ s not a definitive solution to the free-throw shooting woes of Paralympic athletes @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that attempts to get athletes in rhythm and to the line more often would increase efficiency .
Game-like free throws with high levels of fatigue may be difficult to simulate , but with their low conversion rates , Paralympic teams are leaving a lot of points on the court .

Why Are Free Throws So Much Harder To Come By In Wheelchair Basketball?
The rules of wheelchair basketball and the “standup” version of the sport are almost identical. The court is the same length, the free-throw line is the same distance from the basket, as is the three-point line. The only real difference in the wheelchair game, aside from the presence of high-tech equipment, is the ability to double dribble.
So it’s not much of a surprise that shooting stats in the two games are roughly similar, particularly on 2-point field goals. The men’s Olympic team 2-point percentage average at the 2016 Rio de Janeiro Games was 52.16 percent, while the Paralympic average was 47.86 percent. On the women’s side, the Paralympic athletes shot 2-point field goals at a 42.27 percent clip, while their able-bodied colleagues shot an average of 46.37 percent from inside the arc.
But there’s one glaring area where disabled athletes are far behind their able-bodied counterparts: free throws.
[College Basketball Muddles Through The Pandemic Like Everyone Else]
To compare the two sports, I looked at the free throw rates on both the men’s and women’s side of the 2016 Rio Olympic and Paralympic games, beginning with the women’s teams. The wheelchair basketball athletes in this data set converted free throws at a rate 26.3 percentage points lower than the able-bodied athletes. They also shot 6.8 fewer free throws per game, on average, over the course of the tournament.
Free throw disparities remain for women … Free throw attempts and attempts per game during the 2016 women’s Olympic and Paralympic basketball tournaments Olympics Paralympics Team FT Attempts FT % Team FT Attempts FT % Japan 11.0 86.0% U.S. 10.4 68.5% Belarus 16.2 82.7 Germany 14.4 55.5 Senegal 14.0 80.0 Netherlands 12.4 52.9 Australia 18.2 79.8 China 10.7 51.6 Serbia 17.4 78.4 Canada 9.8 49.2 Spain 17.5 77.9 Great Britain 11.0 41.6 U.S. 17.9 77.6 Brazil 10.5 41.3 Brazil 17.6 71.6 France 9.2 38.2 Turkey 19.0 71.1 Algeria 6.8 32.4 Canada 19.5 70.1 Argentina 3.8 31.6 France 16.9 68.2 China 17.6 65.9 Average 17.0 75.4 Average 10.2 49.1 Sources: INTERNATIONAL PARALYMPIC COMMITTEE, International Basketball Federation
Of the Paralympic women’s teams, just Germany attempted over 100 total free throws in the tournament, while the average Olympic team attempted 107.5. Only five Olympic teams (Japan, Belarus, Senegal, China and Brazil) shot fewer free throws than Germany, and they all played fewer games. The U.S. women’s Paralympic team, which won gold, was the only squad to shoot better than even one of the Olympic teams (China) — and only by 2.6 percentage points.
The equation on the men’s side is not much different. The wheelchair basketball teams shot, on average, 8.9 fewer free throws per game and made them at a rate 17.5 percentage points lower over the course of the tournament.
… and for men in wheelchair basketball Free throw attempts and attempts per game during the 2016 men’s Olympic and Paralympic basketball tournaments Olympics Paralympics Team FT Attempts FT % Team FT Attempts FT % France 18.5 80.0% Iran 7.3 65.9% Serbia 21.4 77.2 Germany 15.4 64.8 Croatia 24.2 76.6 Canada 15.0 62.2 Australia 18.6 76.5 Japan 12.8 59.7 Venezuela 17.6 76.1 Spain 12.4 59.6 Nigeria 17.2 75.6 U.S. 12.6 59.4 U.S. 28.0 75.0 Brazil 11.4 58.8 Spain 21.1 74.0 Turkey 9.8 57.7 Lithuania 14.3 73.3 Australia 14.3 57.0 Brazil 22.2 73.0 Great Britain 12.5 55.0 China 22.4 70.5 Algeria 10.3 41.9 Argentina 23.0 68.8 Netherlands 10.0 40.0 Average 20.9 74.8 Average 12.0 57.3 Sources: INTERNATIONAL PARALYMPIC COMMITTEE, International Basketball Federation
Able-bodied male athletes attempted 8.9 more free throws compared to the disabled ones, and only three Olympic teams (Lithuania, Nigeria and Venezuela) shot fewer free throws over the course of the tournament than Germany’s Paralympic total of 108. Germany achieved that mark with at least one more game played than those teams.
So why the discrepancy? Some of it is naturally related to the hardware involved. It is simply harder to get to the free throw line in a game of wheelchair basketball. As Canadian Paralympian Patrick Anderson puts it, “One-on-one basketball with the ball, breaking a guy down one-on-one and getting to the basket and drawing a foul that way, James Harden being the preeminent example in the NBA — it’s just not done a lot in wheelchair basketball. It’s hard to beat a guy off the dribble, in wheelchair basketball, because your hands are up to do a lot and chairs are wide and lateral movement is limited.”
This is most evident in the large difference between the number of free throws taken between the two competitions. In the men’s and women’s Olympic contests, teams averaged 18.9 free throws per game. On the Paralympic side, it was only 11.2. Add the fact that teams rarely get into the bonus, and you have a recipe for fewer shots being taken.
But regardless of the disparity in the number of attempts, wheelchair basketball athletes still make their free throws at much lower rates. Why?
There may be a physiological reason. A group of Brazilian researchers, comparing wheelchair basketball athletes with those they called conventional athletes in 2015, noticed a difference in muscle activations between the two groups. Although the athletes are activating the same muscles in their arms, to no one’s surprise, the legs are a different matter. In their words: “Studies contend that the person’s height and leg thrust can influence the execution of the shot. This gives the WB [wheelchair basketball] group a great disadvantage in free-throwing since they are down lower (sitting) and cannot use their legs for thrust. Therefore, it is likely that the WB group adopts distinct strategies to make this movement.”
[The NBA Champs Look More Dangerous Than Ever]
In practice, those strategies can include the placement of the shoulder as it rotates and extends, a small push or roll up to the line, or choosing a two-handed shot — closer to a set shot in standup basketball — over a more traditional shooting technique. Wheelchair basketball athletes are using their arms for every single sport-related movement. That amount of fatigue may contribute to the lower free-throw rates. Fewer shots and more tired arms equals less rhythm.
Anderson agrees.
“It’s a bit like biathlon. … Your body’s humming, and then you’ve got to sort of quiet everything down,” he said. “And, for us, because so much of our exertion is upper body, that’s the part of us that’s sort of, like, shaken and fatigued.”
Doug Garner, the head men’s wheelchair basketball coach at the University of Texas at Arlington, agrees. “If I had to name one factor, I would say it would be the fatigue factor,” he said. Garner also pointed to the inherent physical and spatial differences in using a wheelchair as reasons underlying the low attempted and completion rates, along with a perceived reluctance of referees to call shooting fouls and the different shooting angle and angle of ball entry that come with shooting from a wheelchair.
There’s not a definitive solution to the free-throw shooting woes of Paralympic athletes. But the data seems to suggest that attempts to get athletes in rhythm and to the line more often would increase efficiency. Game-like free throws with high levels of fatigue may be difficult to simulate, but with their low conversion rates, Paralympic teams are leaving a lot of points on the court.


fivethirthyeight--2020-12-01--Why Are Great Athletes More Likely To Be Younger Siblings?

Venus Williams was the first of the Williams sisters to make a splash in professional tennis .
But Richard Williams , their father , was always convinced that Serena — 15 months younger than Venus , and the youngest of Oracene Price ’ s five daughters — would go on to have the better career .
Richard Williams was right .
While Venus has enjoyed a magnificent career , winning seven Grand Slam singles titles , Serena has won 23 Grand Slams and is widely acclaimed as the best female tennis player ( maybe the best tennis player of any @ @ @ @ @ @ @ was true of the Williams sisters — that the younger one went on to be the better athlete — is also true across sports generally .
This is the “ little sibling effect , ” one of the most intriguing findings in sports science : Younger siblings have a significantly higher chance of becoming elite athletes , as University of Utah professor Mark Williams and I explore in our new book , “ The Best : How Elite Athletes Are Made.
” The effect was demonstrated in a comprehensive analysis of 33 sports @ @ @ @ @ @ @ compared elite athletes — who had reached senior international competition — with near-elite athletes , who had reached the junior international or senior domestic level .
One finding : “ Elite athletes were more likely to be later-born children.
” On average , the two groups had the same number of total siblings .
What mattered was whether those siblings were younger or older .
The elite athletes had 1.04 older siblings on average ; nonelite athletes had only 0.61 .
Younger siblings ’ advantage appears among both male and female athletes , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ research found additional evidence of it in women ’ s sports .
A 2014 study of the athletes vying for a spot on the U.S. women ’ s national soccer team , covering players involved in national team training camps , found that around three-quarters of players had an older sibling ; only 20 percent were the oldest child , and just 5 percent were only children .
National stars Megan Rapinoe , Mia Hamm and Alex Morgan were among those who played soccer with their older siblings as children .
Even when @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the younger one tends to be more successful .
A 2010 study by Frank Sulloway and Richard Zweigenhaft of 700 pairs of brothers who played Major League Baseball found that younger brothers were 2.5 times as likely as their older brothers to record superior career batting statistics .
Overall , among hitters and pitchers , younger brothers played an average of 2.5 years longer than older brothers and in a total of 226 more games .
The roots of the little sibling effect may lie in the way younger siblings strive to match @ @ @ @ @ @ @ This was the case with Michael Jordan , the youngest of the three Jordan boys and the fourth of the five Jordan children .
When the siblings were growing up , Larry — who was born 11 months before Michael — was considered a better basketball player and regularly bested Michael in one-on-one games .
“ I don ’ t think , from a competitive standpoint , I would be here without the confrontations with my brother , ” Michael recalled in the ESPN documentary “ The Last Dance.
” “ When you @ @ @ @ @ @ @ love , that ’ s igniting every fire within you .
And I always felt like I was fighting Larry for my father ’ s attention .
… “ I want that approval .
I want that type of confidence .
So my determination got even greater to be as good , if not better than , my brother.
” Similar dynamics were at work in the Murray tennis family of Scotland .
Elder brother Jamie became a leading doubles player ; younger brother Andy has won three Grand Slam singles titles .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ probably helped Andy to become extra competitive , ” said his mother , Judy Murray , in “ The Best.
” “ What helped Andy in particular become that sort of uber-competitor was having an older brother who ’ s a bit bigger and a bit stronger than him through most of his formative years .
And all he ever wanted to do was to beat Jamie.
” As well as honing psychological skills , playing with an older sibling can also accelerate the development of physical skills .
The theory is that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and fail ; the difficulties of these situations can provide feedback that enables athletes to adapt and develop their skills .
While older siblings can generally rely on being bigger and stronger to win , younger siblings “ playing up ” to their older siblings ’ level need to develop creativity , decision-making skills and tactical intelligence to keep up — ultimately benefiting them on the field even when they are no longer at a physical disadvantage .
Whether consciously or not , older siblings can pass on instructions to their younger siblings @ @ @ @ @ @ @ younger sibling is to try out the same sport in which an older sibling is already established , benefit from a possible teaching effect , and then see if one can do better than the older sibling in that same sport , ” Sulloway said .
The amount of informal play that athletes do may also be a predictor of who goes on to become elite .
A study comparing soccer players who were offered scholarships from Premier League academies at age 16 with players who were released found that the two groups @ @ @ @ @ @ @ hours in practice at their academies. But players offered scholarships had spent more than twice as much time per year on informal soccer play — games with family and friends in local streets and parks — than the players who were released .
The NBA has also noted that informal play exposes children to more variables — like different roles and positions , court sizes and numbers of players — which can accelerate skill development , creating “ smarter learners ” used to adapting .
These findings further help explain the little-sibling effect @ @ @ @ @ @ @ get more informal play at a younger age than those without older siblings , as they can play with their elder brothers and sisters .
Firstborns and only children have to wait for their parents to play with them , or for their parents to arrange play dates ; those with elder siblings do not .
Parents also give younger siblings a better chance of becoming elite athletes by treating them differently .
Parents are notoriously more indulgent of later-born children , letting them go out more at a younger age — including @ @ @ @ @ @ @ with older siblings , younger siblings are around 40 percent more likely to be allowed to play dangerous contact sports , so they have more opportunity of making it to the top in these sports .
A certain rebellious streak may also benefit younger siblings on the field : In Major League Baseball , younger brothers are 10.6 times more likely to attempt to steal a base and 3.2 times more likely to steal successfully , Sulloway and Zweigenhaft found .
Later-born MLB players are also more likely to get hit by a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ suggesting that they ’ re less likely to be intimidated and less willing to back down from a confrontation — perhaps because those younger brothers were hit by more pitches growing up playing with their elder brothers .
By the time younger siblings follow older siblings into the talent pathway for a particular sport , parents are “ more familiar with how to navigate the sporting system , ” said Melissa Hopwood , the co-author of the study of Canadian and Australian athletes .
“ They knew the good clubs , the good @ @ @ @ @ @ @ they had a more informed , deliberate experience rather than flying blind.
” Athletes can also learn from what worked — and what didn ’ t — for their older siblings .
This has been the case with the remarkable Ingebrigtsen family of runners .
Three of the Norwegian brothers have won the gold medal in the 1,500-meter race at the European Championships .
Jakob Ingebrigtsen , the youngest of the brothers , is the only one who has also won the gold medal in the European Championships ’ 5,000-meters event ; in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ won gold in both the 1,500- and 5,000-meter races .
“ Both Filip and him have learned from my mistakes , ” said older brother Henrik after Jakob ’ s first gold medal in Berlin .
“ I have made a lot of mistakes !
“ But every year , we try to optimize our program and all of [ our ] training and all of your workouts , and Jakob is starting his training with the perfect programs , more or less.
” Now , Jakob is turning into another case study @ @ @ @ @ @ @ out on top in sports .

Venus Williams was the first of the Williams sisters to make a splash in professional tennis. But Richard Williams, their father, was always convinced that Serena — 15 months younger than Venus, and the youngest of Oracene Price’s five daughters — would go on to have the better career.
Richard Williams was right. While Venus has enjoyed a magnificent career, winning seven Grand Slam singles titles, Serena has won 23 Grand Slams and is widely acclaimed as the best female tennis player (maybe the best tennis player of any gender) of all time. What was true of the Williams sisters — that the younger one went on to be the better athlete — is also true across sports generally. This is the “little sibling effect,” one of the most intriguing findings in sports science: Younger siblings have a significantly higher chance of becoming elite athletes, as University of Utah professor Mark Williams and I explore in our new book, “The Best: How Elite Athletes Are Made.”
The effect was demonstrated in a comprehensive analysis of 33 sports in Canada and Australia. The study compared elite athletes — who had reached senior international competition — with near-elite athletes, who had reached the junior international or senior domestic level. One finding: “Elite athletes were more likely to be later-born children.”
[Why Are Free Throws So Much Harder To Come By In Wheelchair Basketball?]
On average, the two groups had the same number of total siblings. What mattered was whether those siblings were younger or older. The elite athletes had 1.04 older siblings on average; nonelite athletes had only 0.61.
Younger siblings’ advantage appears among both male and female athletes, according to that study, and other research found additional evidence of it in women’s sports. A 2014 study of the athletes vying for a spot on the U.S. women’s national soccer team, covering players involved in national team training camps, found that around three-quarters of players had an older sibling; only 20 percent were the oldest child, and just 5 percent were only children. National stars Megan Rapinoe, Mia Hamm and Alex Morgan were among those who played soccer with their older siblings as children.
Even when two siblings both reach professional status, the younger one tends to be more successful. A 2010 study by Frank Sulloway and Richard Zweigenhaft of 700 pairs of brothers who played Major League Baseball found that younger brothers were 2.5 times as likely as their older brothers to record superior career batting statistics. Overall, among hitters and pitchers, younger brothers played an average of 2.5 years longer than older brothers and in a total of 226 more games.
The roots of the little sibling effect may lie in the way younger siblings strive to match their older siblings on the field. This was the case with Michael Jordan, the youngest of the three Jordan boys and the fourth of the five Jordan children. When the siblings were growing up, Larry — who was born 11 months before Michael — was considered a better basketball player and regularly bested Michael in one-on-one games.
“I don’t think, from a competitive standpoint, I would be here without the confrontations with my brother,” Michael recalled in the ESPN documentary “The Last Dance.” “When you come to blows with someone you absolutely love, that’s igniting every fire within you. And I always felt like I was fighting Larry for my father’s attention. …
“I want that approval. I want that type of confidence. So my determination got even greater to be as good, if not better than, my brother.”
[Related: Michael Jordan Faced Better Competition Than LeBron James]
Similar dynamics were at work in the Murray tennis family of Scotland. Elder brother Jamie became a leading doubles player; younger brother Andy has won three Grand Slam singles titles. “I think having an older sibling probably helped Andy to become extra competitive,” said his mother, Judy Murray, in “The Best.” “What helped Andy in particular become that sort of uber-competitor was having an older brother who’s a bit bigger and a bit stronger than him through most of his formative years. And all he ever wanted to do was to beat Jamie.”
As well as honing psychological skills, playing with an older sibling can also accelerate the development of physical skills. The theory is that athletes learn more when they are challenged and fail; the difficulties of these situations can provide feedback that enables athletes to adapt and develop their skills. While older siblings can generally rely on being bigger and stronger to win, younger siblings “playing up” to their older siblings’ level need to develop creativity, decision-making skills and tactical intelligence to keep up — ultimately benefiting them on the field even when they are no longer at a physical disadvantage. Whether consciously or not, older siblings can pass on instructions to their younger siblings. “The ideal strategy for a younger sibling is to try out the same sport in which an older sibling is already established, benefit from a possible teaching effect, and then see if one can do better than the older sibling in that same sport,” Sulloway said.
The amount of informal play that athletes do may also be a predictor of who goes on to become elite. A study comparing soccer players who were offered scholarships from Premier League academies at age 16 with players who were released found that the two groups had accumulated a nearly identical number of hours in practice at their academies. But players offered scholarships had spent more than twice as much time per year on informal soccer play — games with family and friends in local streets and parks — than the players who were released. The NBA has also noted that informal play exposes children to more variables — like different roles and positions, court sizes and numbers of players — which can accelerate skill development, creating “smarter learners” used to adapting.
These findings further help explain the little-sibling effect. Younger siblings are generally able to get more informal play at a younger age than those without older siblings, as they can play with their elder brothers and sisters. Firstborns and only children have to wait for their parents to play with them, or for their parents to arrange play dates; those with elder siblings do not.
Parents also give younger siblings a better chance of becoming elite athletes by treating them differently. Parents are notoriously more indulgent of later-born children, letting them go out more at a younger age — including engaging in unsupervised informal play. Compared with older siblings, younger siblings are around 40 percent more likely to be allowed to play dangerous contact sports, so they have more opportunity of making it to the top in these sports. A certain rebellious streak may also benefit younger siblings on the field: In Major League Baseball, younger brothers are 10.6 times more likely to attempt to steal a base and 3.2 times more likely to steal successfully, Sulloway and Zweigenhaft found. Later-born MLB players are also more likely to get hit by a pitch than than their older brothers, suggesting that they’re less likely to be intimidated and less willing to back down from a confrontation — perhaps because those younger brothers were hit by more pitches growing up playing with their elder brothers.
[Charles Johnson Was Damn Good Behind (And At) The Plate]
By the time younger siblings follow older siblings into the talent pathway for a particular sport, parents are “more familiar with how to navigate the sporting system,” said Melissa Hopwood, the co-author of the study of Canadian and Australian athletes. “They knew the good clubs, the good coaches, the commitment required, so they had a more informed, deliberate experience rather than flying blind.”
Athletes can also learn from what worked — and what didn’t — for their older siblings. This has been the case with the remarkable Ingebrigtsen family of runners. Three of the Norwegian brothers have won the gold medal in the 1,500-meter race at the European Championships. Jakob Ingebrigtsen, the youngest of the brothers, is the only one who has also won the gold medal in the European Championships’ 5,000-meters event; in 2018, at age 17, he won gold in both the 1,500- and 5,000-meter races.
“Both Filip and him have learned from my mistakes,” said older brother Henrik after Jakob’s first gold medal in Berlin. “I have made a lot of mistakes!
“But every year, we try to optimize our program and all of [our] training and all of your workouts, and Jakob is starting his training with the perfect programs, more or less.” Now, Jakob is turning into another case study for how younger siblings tend to come out on top in sports.


fivethirthyeight--2020-12-01--The NFL Is Running Out Of Wiggle Room

The NFL Is Running Out Of Wiggle Room

We start with the NFL , which is straining to cope with an uptick in COVID-19 cases within the league .
Most notably , the Denver Broncos were forced to play over the weekend without any starting quarterbacks .
Undrafted practice squad wide receiver Kendall Hinton performed about as well as could be expected , given the circumstances .
He completed a single pass for 13 yards and threw two interceptions as Denver was pummelled by a New Orleans Saints team that didn ’ t look that much better .
But the fact that the game happened at all raises @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to manage outbreaks on teams .
Why did Denver have to play on Sunday while the Baltimore Ravens and Pittsburgh Steelers still , as of this episode , are waiting to play a Wednesday night game ?
Which league punishments actually incentivize teams to stay healthy and which are more for show ?
What , if anything , would force the NFL to push games back and give teams a chance to isolate and get the virus under control ?
What we know for sure is that if the league keeps up its @ @ @ @ @ @ @ coronavirus , something is bound to break .
Next , we turn to a small bright spot in the world of college football .
On Saturday , Vanderbilt soccer goalie Sarah Fuller left her normal football field for the other kind to kick for the Commodores after several regular members of their special teams unit tested positive for COVID-19 and were required to quarantine .
Vanderbilt — which usually has a tough time in the SEC but is quite bad this year — lost 41-0 to Missouri , which meant that Fuller played @ @ @ @ @ @ @ start the second half .
But in doing so , she made history as the first woman to ever play in a Power Five college football game .
That feat can ’ t be discounted because of Fuller ’ s limited play time or Vanderbilt ’ s relatively low spot in the SEC ’ s pecking order .
It is a huge accomplishment that she acquitted herself so ably , diving into a completely new role in a completely new sport in just a week .
There might have been a more “ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ picture Fuller booting the ball through the end zone instead of hitting a designed squib kick — but this is very unlikely to be the last we see of female soccer players joining male football teams as kickers .
If Fuller could master onside kicks , she ’ d be a valuable asset to any NFL team .
Finally , in the Rabbit Hole , Neil takes an even deeper dive into the Broncos ’ woes and contextualizes just how bad they were playing without a QB .
The answer ?
They were @ @ @ @ @ @ @ league of their own .
Hinton isn ’ t the only quarterback to have logged a Quarterback Rating of 0.1 .
Nor is the Broncos-Saints game the only one in which both teams logged less than 75 passing yards of total offense .
Drew Brees had a hand in a game like that , actually , way back in 2003 when the Chargers played the Raiders .
The Broncos will probably take very little solace from it , but this game did make for great Rabbit Hole material .
What we ’ re @ @ @ @ @ @ @ turns out that NFL teams really do need quarterbacks .
• Where the NFL stands in its COVID-19 battle .
• Plus … a throwback Sean Taylor hit from the 2006 Pro Bowl .

We start with the NFL, which is straining to cope with an uptick in COVID-19 cases within the league. Most notably, the Denver Broncos were forced to play over the weekend without any starting quarterbacks. Undrafted practice squad wide receiver Kendall Hinton performed about as well as could be expected, given the circumstances. He completed a single pass for 13 yards and threw two interceptions as Denver was pummelled by a New Orleans Saints team that didn’t look that much better. But the fact that the game happened at all raises questions about how the NFL is struggling to manage outbreaks on teams. Why did Denver have to play on Sunday while the Baltimore Ravens and Pittsburgh Steelers still, as of this episode, are waiting to play a Wednesday night game? Which league punishments actually incentivize teams to stay healthy and which are more for show? What, if anything, would force the NFL to push games back and give teams a chance to isolate and get the virus under control? What we know for sure is that if the league keeps up its reactive, ad hoc approach to the coronavirus, something is bound to break.
Next, we turn to a small bright spot in the world of college football. On Saturday, Vanderbilt soccer goalie Sarah Fuller left her normal football field for the other kind to kick for the Commodores after several regular members of their special teams unit tested positive for COVID-19 and were required to quarantine. Vanderbilt — which usually has a tough time in the SEC but is quite bad this year — lost 41-0 to Missouri, which meant that Fuller played only one snap: a kickoff to start the second half. But in doing so, she made history as the first woman to ever play in a Power Five college football game. That feat can’t be discounted because of Fuller’s limited play time or Vanderbilt’s relatively low spot in the SEC’s pecking order. It is a huge accomplishment that she acquitted herself so ably, diving into a completely new role in a completely new sport in just a week. There might have been a more “Hollywood” version of this story — picture Fuller booting the ball through the end zone instead of hitting a designed squib kick — but this is very unlikely to be the last we see of female soccer players joining male football teams as kickers. If Fuller could master onside kicks, she’d be a valuable asset to any NFL team.
Finally, in the Rabbit Hole, Neil takes an even deeper dive into the Broncos’ woes and contextualizes just how bad they were playing without a QB. The answer? They were very bad, but not in a league of their own. Hinton isn’t the only quarterback to have logged a Quarterback Rating of 0.1. Nor is the Broncos-Saints game the only one in which both teams logged less than 75 passing yards of total offense. Drew Brees had a hand in a game like that, actually, way back in 2003 when the Chargers played the Raiders. The Broncos will probably take very little solace from it, but this game did make for great Rabbit Hole material.
What we’re looking at this week:


fivethirthyeight--2020-12-01--Democrats’ 2020 House And Senate Map Could Spell Trouble In Future Elections

In this episode of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast , the crew discusses the challenges Democrats faced in House , Senate @ @ @ @ @ and whether it was a good use of polling to survey preferences for the 2024 @ @ @ @ @ has even left the White House .

In this episode of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the crew discusses the challenges Democrats faced in House, Senate and state legislature races — and whether it was a good use of polling to survey preferences for the 2024 Republican primary before President Trump has even left the White House.
[Related: There Wasn’t That Much Split-Ticket Voting In 2020]


fivethirthyeight--2020-12-01--The Atlanta Hawks Are Going All-In On Offense

No organization is less patient than the Atlanta Hawks .
Their hyper-aggressive offseason was telegraphed in the middle of a disappointing 2019-20 regular season , when they surrendered a 2020 first-round pick for Clint Capela .
But it was still jarring in the past two weeks to watch a team that finished 28th in net rating — while fielding the league ’ s youngest roster — spend as much money as they have .
It ’ s twice as fascinating after you look at who they targeted .
Their two largest commitments — 32-year-old Danilo Gallinari and 28-year-old Bogdan Bogdanović @ @ @ @ @ @ @ million over the next four years and accelerate a rebuild that highlights the thorny predicament of shaping a franchise around 22-year-old Trae Young .
How do you build around a crackling 6-foot-1 flamethrower who finished his sophomore season second in offensive Real Plus-Minus ( trailing only two-time MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo ) and 520th out of 520 players in defensive Real Plus-Minus , while ownership has made it clear that a hurried playoff appearance is more important than long-term prosperity ?
The original plan was as delicate as it was obvious .
On defense @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a fortress of length , versatility and sharpness , with wings who can both switch and slither through screens and above-the-rim paint protectors who clean up messes made on the perimeter by scouring the back line .
Meanwhile , on offense , these same players had to make threes and foreground Young ’ s pick-and-roll game , perhaps the most prolific in the league .
Hawks general manager Travis Schlenk spent 13 years with the Golden State Warriors , watching Steph Curry dominate on and off the ball while appreciating all the ways @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Iguodala , Andrew Bogut and others chipped in when it was time to get stops .
A mutually beneficial ecosystem was constructed , and the Warriors became a dynasty .
But this sort of thing takes time , especially on defense , which is as much about trust , instincts and institutional know-how as it is about preferred body type .
Which brings us to the next act of Young ’ s career .
Instead of waiting to see if De ’ Andre Hunter ( 22 years old ) , Cam Reddish ( @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ) can develop into the sensible and stabilizing two-way fixtures Schlenk believed they would be when he drafted them , Atlanta used nearly all of its cap space to diversify and texturize a 25th-ranked offense that was barely above league average with Young on the floor last season .
All of a sudden , their roster has tilted more toward enhancing Young ’ s prodigious strengths than covering his clear blemishes .
Gallinari and Bogdanović aren ’ t sieves , but they also aren ’ t the pieces a team would build a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Atlanta spent on them , that says something , especially considering a positional overlap at power forward between Gallinari and the double-double-producing pogostick John Collins , who ’ s also a bit patchy on defense and is due for a contract extension .
( Schlenk has already said Collins will start games over Gallinari — who tied Kawhi Leonard for the NBA lead in offensive rating last season — but he did not declare who will finish them . )
This is not to say the Hawks are ignoring defense entirely .
Atlanta @ @ @ @ @ @ @ shot-blocking big man ) , traded for Capela and signed reigning steal-rate leader Kris Dunn , along with Rajon Rondo , who rehabilitated his deteriorating reputation ( including his status as a defender ) inside the bubble .
New faces Tony Snell and Solomon Hill are solid corks when deployed with caution .
But scoring on the Hawks will not be akin to cracking a safe .
Instead of worrying about its defense , opposing coaching staffs are more likely to lose sleep over game-planning for Atlanta ’ s potent offense , a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ who averaged nearly 30 points and just over nine assists per game last season .
The Hawks ’ turnaround starts with outside shooting , a definite concern heading into the year .
Atlanta was the NBA ’ s least accurate 3-point shooting team last season , so Bogdanović and Gallinari are an immediate stimulus package .
In 2019-20 , only eight players made over 40 percent of their threes while averaging at least five attempts per game .
These two made the list .
Each is one of the better stand-still 3-point shooters @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s size has allowed him to work as a devastating pick-and-pop threat , too .
According to Second Spectrum , the Oklahoma City Thunder averaged 1.24 points per possession , good for the 93rd percentile , whenever Gallinari popped after setting a ball screen .
It ’ s here where Gallo is a natural complement to Young , who already has a fruitful partnership with Collins ( who quietly shot 42.5 percent on catch-and-shoot threes last season ) but will appreciate the upgrade over Jabari Parker and the now-retired Vince Carter .
Atlanta @ @ @ @ @ @ @ solid-to-elite long-range threats .
Even if the Hawks provide no more resistance than a windbreaker on defense , opponents will have a tough time stopping Young , Huerter , Bogdanović , Gallinari and Collins at the same time .
Sub Capela in as a persistent lob threat , and they are dangerous in yet another form .
Few teams have the right personnel to stay in front of a group that plays Rondo , Dunn and Young at the same time .
Their spacing wouldn ’ t be ideal , but that amount @ @ @ @ @ @ @ be a useful option in certain situations .
In addition to widening narrow driving lanes that last year forced Young to launch more floaters than should be in his diet , the addition of more potent outside shooters ( who can handle the ball ) should deter the traps that put the ball in the hands of less capable teammates .
( No player was blitzed at a higher frequency last season than Young , according to Second Spectrum . )
In other words : Defenses can no longer load up to make @ @ @ @ @ @ @ every play .
Last season , the Hawks were a predictable mash of pick-and-rolls and dribble handoffs .
They ran the fourth-fewest off-ball screens in the league and were dead last in efficiency for those possessions , averaging a meager 0.97 points per possession .
Here ’ s another space where Gallinari and Bogdanović can help .
Gallo ’ s size and range will often force stiff bigs to switch out on him to take away the initial open look .
More times than not , this plays to his benefit .
Meanwhile @ @ @ @ @ @ @ active players running off screens last year ; Sacramento ’ s offense scored 1.32 points per possession when he was screened for — eighth-best out of the 52 players who ran at least 150 of the actions .
He opens doors elsewhere , too .
Over half of Bogdanović ’ s shots last year were threes , but a good chunk of everything else were cunning floaters that accented a barrage of self-created midrange daggers .
His field-goal percentage on 2-point pull-ups was a boiling 48.9 , evidence of a player who ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that separate him from most high-volume bombers .
That adaptability comes in handy when a defender is right on his hip as he curls off a screen .
Bogdanović ’ s handle and footwork are tight and elegant .
He can glide forward , slam on the brakes , then reverse direction all in one wrinkle-free movement .
Few players have more favorite spots on the floor .
As another reliable ball-handler , Bogdanović should enable Young to work more off the ball and take some of the catch-and-shoot threes he hardly ever @ @ @ @ @ @ @ This benefits everyone .
Despite drilling 46.6 percent of his 103 spot-up tries last year ( only Seth Curry and JJ Redick were more accurate among all players who took at least 100 ) , Young rarely leveraged the gravity that his quick release and preternatural range grant .
According to Second Spectrum , Atlanta averaged 0.876 points per possession when they ran an off-ball screen for Young , which was second-lowest among all players with over 200 actions .
That should change with Bogdanović and Rondo as set-up men , and the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ quell some of the more formulaic habits Atlanta ’ s offense fell into as it struggled to climb out of the Eastern Conference ’ s basement last season .
Even though all these signings make the Hawks feel like a rushed apotheosis , they still own all their future first-round picks and have several intriguing young players ( especially Collins ) who open the door for a seismic trade down the line .
The Hawks no longer have meaningful cap space , nor do they have a realistic opportunity to select another high @ @ @ @ @ @ @ themselves on a very specific track , betting on offensive improvement that should yield a playoff appearance .
But then what ?
As things currently stand , unless Hunter , Reddish , Okongwu and Collins become above-average , all-around defenders who can help electrify Atlanta ’ s offense , pairing Young with a similarly aged co-pilot once he reaches his prime could be tricky .
But these are problems for another day .
Right now , the Hawks ’ offense should be enough to carry them into the playoffs .
It ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ threats , experience and intelligence .
A top-10 ranking should be in the cards , and they may even flirt with a top-3 offensive rating in the Eastern Conference .
Soon enough , the question of whether this team can reach the playoffs will be replaced by how compelling they look when they get there .

No organization is less patient than the Atlanta Hawks. Their hyper-aggressive offseason was telegraphed in the middle of a disappointing 2019-20 regular season, when they surrendered a 2020 first-round pick for Clint Capela. But it was still jarring in the past two weeks to watch a team that finished 28th in net rating — while fielding the league’s youngest roster — spend as much money as they have.
It’s twice as fascinating after you look at who they targeted. Their two largest commitments — 32-year-old Danilo Gallinari and 28-year-old Bogdan Bogdanović — will cost more than $100 million over the next four years and accelerate a rebuild that highlights the thorny predicament of shaping a franchise around 22-year-old Trae Young.
How do you build around a crackling 6-foot-1 flamethrower who finished his sophomore season second in offensive Real Plus-Minus (trailing only two-time MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo) and 520th out of 520 players in defensive Real Plus-Minus, while ownership has made it clear that a hurried playoff appearance is more important than long-term prosperity?
The original plan was as delicate as it was obvious. On defense, Atlanta wanted to shield Young in a fortress of length, versatility and sharpness, with wings who can both switch and slither through screens and above-the-rim paint protectors who clean up messes made on the perimeter by scouring the back line. Meanwhile, on offense, these same players had to make threes and foreground Young’s pick-and-roll game, perhaps the most prolific in the league.
Hawks general manager Travis Schlenk spent 13 years with the Golden State Warriors, watching Steph Curry dominate on and off the ball while appreciating all the ways Klay Thompson, Draymond Green, Andre Iguodala, Andrew Bogut and others chipped in when it was time to get stops. A mutually beneficial ecosystem was constructed, and the Warriors became a dynasty. But this sort of thing takes time, especially on defense, which is as much about trust, instincts and institutional know-how as it is about preferred body type.
Which brings us to the next act of Young’s career. Instead of waiting to see if De’Andre Hunter (22 years old), Cam Reddish (21) and Kevin Huerter (22) can develop into the sensible and stabilizing two-way fixtures Schlenk believed they would be when he drafted them, Atlanta used nearly all of its cap space to diversify and texturize a 25th-ranked offense that was barely above league average with Young on the floor last season.
All of a sudden, their roster has tilted more toward enhancing Young’s prodigious strengths than covering his clear blemishes. Gallinari and Bogdanović aren’t sieves, but they also aren’t the pieces a team would build a defense-first culture around. Given how much Atlanta spent on them, that says something, especially considering a positional overlap at power forward between Gallinari and the double-double-producing pogostick John Collins, who’s also a bit patchy on defense and is due for a contract extension. (Schlenk has already said Collins will start games over Gallinari — who tied Kawhi Leonard for the NBA lead in offensive rating last season — but he did not declare who will finish them.)
This is not to say the Hawks are ignoring defense entirely. Atlanta drafted Onyeka Okongwu (a mobile, shot-blocking big man), traded for Capela and signed reigning steal-rate leader Kris Dunn, along with Rajon Rondo, who rehabilitated his deteriorating reputation (including his status as a defender) inside the bubble. New faces Tony Snell and Solomon Hill are solid corks when deployed with caution.
But scoring on the Hawks will not be akin to cracking a safe. Instead of worrying about its defense, opposing coaching staffs are more likely to lose sleep over game-planning for Atlanta’s potent offense, a varied onslaught engineered by a maturing All-Star who averaged nearly 30 points and just over nine assists per game last season.
The Hawks’ turnaround starts with outside shooting, a definite concern heading into the year. Atlanta was the NBA’s least accurate 3-point shooting team last season, so Bogdanović and Gallinari are an immediate stimulus package. In 2019-20, only eight players made over 40 percent of their threes while averaging at least five attempts per game. These two made the list. Each is one of the better stand-still 3-point shooters in the world, but Gallinari’s size has allowed him to work as a devastating pick-and-pop threat, too. According to Second Spectrum, the Oklahoma City Thunder averaged 1.24 points per possession, good for the 93rd percentile, whenever Gallinari popped after setting a ball screen. It’s here where Gallo is a natural complement to Young, who already has a fruitful partnership with Collins (who quietly shot 42.5 percent on catch-and-shoot threes last season) but will appreciate the upgrade over Jabari Parker and the now-retired Vince Carter.
Atlanta can deploy lineups with four or five solid-to-elite long-range threats. Even if the Hawks provide no more resistance than a windbreaker on defense, opponents will have a tough time stopping Young, Huerter, Bogdanović, Gallinari and Collins at the same time. Sub Capela in as a persistent lob threat, and they are dangerous in yet another form. Few teams have the right personnel to stay in front of a group that plays Rondo, Dunn and Young at the same time. Their spacing wouldn’t be ideal, but that amount of dribble penetration and vision might still be a useful option in certain situations.
In addition to widening narrow driving lanes that last year forced Young to launch more floaters than should be in his diet, the addition of more potent outside shooters (who can handle the ball) should deter the traps that put the ball in the hands of less capable teammates. (No player was blitzed at a higher frequency last season than Young, according to Second Spectrum.)
In other words: Defenses can no longer load up to make Young’s life a chore on every play. Last season, the Hawks were a predictable mash of pick-and-rolls and dribble handoffs. They ran the fourth-fewest off-ball screens in the league and were dead last in efficiency for those possessions, averaging a meager 0.97 points per possession.
Here’s another space where Gallinari and Bogdanović can help. Gallo’s size and range will often force stiff bigs to switch out on him to take away the initial open look. More times than not, this plays to his benefit.
Meanwhile, Bogdanović was one of the most active players running off screens last year; Sacramento’s offense scored 1.32 points per possession when he was screened for — eighth-best out of the 52 players who ran at least 150 of the actions.
He opens doors elsewhere, too. Over half of Bogdanović’s shots last year were threes, but a good chunk of everything else were cunning floaters that accented a barrage of self-created midrange daggers. His field-goal percentage on 2-point pull-ups was a boiling 48.9, evidence of a player who’s able to nail the in-between shots that separate him from most high-volume bombers.
That adaptability comes in handy when a defender is right on his hip as he curls off a screen. Bogdanović’s handle and footwork are tight and elegant. He can glide forward, slam on the brakes, then reverse direction all in one wrinkle-free movement. Few players have more favorite spots on the floor.
As another reliable ball-handler, Bogdanović should enable Young to work more off the ball and take some of the catch-and-shoot threes he hardly ever launched — especially in the half-court. This benefits everyone. Despite drilling 46.6 percent of his 103 spot-up tries last year (only Seth Curry and JJ Redick were more accurate among all players who took at least 100), Young rarely leveraged the gravity that his quick release and preternatural range grant.
According to Second Spectrum, Atlanta averaged 0.876 points per possession when they ran an off-ball screen for Young, which was second-lowest among all players with over 200 actions. That should change with Bogdanović and Rondo as set-up men, and the presence of the two new guards should quell some of the more formulaic habits Atlanta’s offense fell into as it struggled to climb out of the Eastern Conference’s basement last season.
Even though all these signings make the Hawks feel like a rushed apotheosis, they still own all their future first-round picks and have several intriguing young players (especially Collins) who open the door for a seismic trade down the line.
(Atlanta signing two players who’ve been linked to the Clippers — Dunn and Rondo — makes it easier to imagine one of the better packages for Paul George, should they reach the brink of desperation: Rondo, Bogdanović, Hunter and Collins for George and Lou Williams, who grew up 45 minutes from State Farm Arena. Or if they want to acquire a star closer to Young’s age and contract timeline, Atlanta might have the goods to swing a deal for Ben Simmons.)
The Hawks no longer have meaningful cap space, nor do they have a realistic opportunity to select another high lottery pick soon. They have placed themselves on a very specific track, betting on offensive improvement that should yield a playoff appearance. But then what? As things currently stand, unless Hunter, Reddish, Okongwu and Collins become above-average, all-around defenders who can help electrify Atlanta’s offense, pairing Young with a similarly aged co-pilot once he reaches his prime could be tricky.
But these are problems for another day. Right now, the Hawks’ offense should be enough to carry them into the playoffs. It’s full of shooting, playmaking, lob threats, experience and intelligence. A top-10 ranking should be in the cards, and they may even flirt with a top-3 offensive rating in the Eastern Conference. Soon enough, the question of whether this team can reach the playoffs will be replaced by how compelling they look when they get there.