fivethirthyeight--2020-10-31--The 21 Ballot Measures We’re Watching This Election

People who say that the U.S. is a republic and not a democracy apparently haven ’ t heard of ballot measures .
Every year , some states allow citizens to bypass their elected representatives and weigh in directly on an issue — bringing policy to the forefront of the campaign in a way it often is not in candidate elections .
After all , it is through ballot measures that we ’ ve gotten laws that were either too bold or too partisan to pass legislatively , such as Colorado and Washington becoming the first states to legalize recreational marijuana @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to public education and health care and five red states expanding Medicaid .
But this year , the pandemic has made it difficult for ballot-measure campaigns to collect enough signatures to make the ballot .
According to the National Conference of State Legislatures , there are only 121 statewide ballot measures being decided in the 2020 general election — the fewest in a presidential or midterm year since 1986 .
( By contrast , there were 154 in 2016 and 174 in 2012 . )
But the ones that did make the ballot @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are 21 ballot measures we ’ ll be watching closely on Nov. 3 .
Any conversation about ballot measures naturally starts in California , a state with a long history of direct democracy .
There are 12 initiatives on the general-election ballot there this year , and four deserve special attention : • Proposition 22 is likely to go down as the first battle in a nationwide war over regulating the gig economy .
In 2019 , California passed a major law designed to give protections to gig workers by reclassifying them as @ @ @ @ @ @ @ like Uber , Lyft and DoorDash quickly filed a ballot measure to exempt themselves from the law .
Under Prop 22 , app-based drivers or delivery people would be classified as independent contractors and guaranteed certain benefits like a guaranteed hourly wage and access to health care ( just not as many benefits as if they were classified as employees ) .
More money has been spent on this ballot measure than any other in California history , with supporters ( mostly the gig companies that would be affected ) outraising opponents ( @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 200 million to $ 20 million .
Perhaps presaging a new frontier of campaigning , they ’ ve also controversially used their apps to push pro-Prop 22 messages to customers and drivers alike .
All that advertising may be having the desired effect , though : Prop 22 has appeared to gain support over the course of the fall .
Recent surveys show the measure leading , but they disagree about whether it ’ s a close race .
• Elsewhere on the ballot , Proposition 15 takes direct aim at a staple @ @ @ @ @ @ @ passed in 1978 that capped property taxes at a property ’ s purchase price , leading to a steep drop in county revenues .
Prop 15 would undo that law for commercial properties only , allowing them to be taxed at their market value .
That could increase funding for county governments and schools by as much as $ 12.5 billion per year .
Prop 15 has been another expensive battle between business groups and labor unions , but this one is more evenly matched : Supporters have raised $ 67 million , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ generally shown Prop 15 in the lead , although support has hovered around only 50 percent .
The latest survey , from the University of California Berkeley , showed the measure passing 49 percent to 42 percent .
• Proposition 16 seeks to repeal another conservative California ballot measure of yore : the state ’ s 1996 ban on the use of affirmative action in public college admissions and government hiring decisions .
But despite California ’ s liberal leanings and the endorsement of several prominent Democrats , the measure is struggling in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ trailing by 11 points , and even a survey sponsored by its supporters found only a 45-45 tie .
• Finally , Proposition 25 is a referendum on a law the legislature passed in 2018 that would make California the first state to pass legislation to end cash bail , a leading goal of progressive criminal justice reformers .
However , many advocates are equally suspicious of the proposed alternative , which would give judges wide discretion to decide whether to continue to hold detainees .
Several ballot measures up for election this @ @ @ @ @ @ @ example , if Question 2 passes , Massachusetts could join Maine in switching to ranked-choice voting .
And if Florida ’ s Amendment 3 passes , traditional partisan primaries for state ( but not federal ) office could be replaced with top-two primaries , like those currently used in California , Louisiana and Washington .
Alaska ’ s Ballot Measure 2 is a unique combination of both of these reforms : It would implement a jungle primary from which the top four finishers advance — and then use ranked-choice voting to decide among @ @ @ @ @ @ @ those who want to abolish the Electoral College will be watching Proposition 113 closely in Colorado .
Last year , Colorado became the first swing state to sign onto the National Popular Vote interstate compact , whose signatories pledge their electoral votes to the winner of the national popular vote ( but only after states worth a majority of electoral votes agree to do so ) .
But opponents quickly gathered enough signatures to put the law before a public vote ; if voters reject it , Colorado will become the first state @ @ @ @ @ @ @ have shown a tight race .
Mississippi will also vote on Ballot Measure 2 , which would repeal the state ’ s own version of the Electoral College : a requirement that candidates for statewide office carry a majority of state House districts as well as a majority of the popular vote .
Part of the state ’ s 1890 Jim Crow constitution , the law was designed to make it harder for Black voters to elect their preferred candidates , and even today , it makes it extremely difficult for Democrats to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ also decide who draws new electoral maps after the 2020 census .
Amendment # 1 in Virginia would take that power away from the current Democratic legislature and governor and invest it in a bipartisan commission ; legislators would still have to approve the map , but if they failed to do so , responsibility for redistricting would fall to the courts .
Meanwhile , in Missouri , the passage of Amendment 3 would defang the redistricting reform initiative that 62 percent of voters approved in 2018 .
Instead of a nonpartisan state @ @ @ @ @ @ @ committee of both Republicans and Democrats would draw them .
Polls of both proposals contain good news for fans of less partisan redistricting : the Virginia measure is passing , while the Missouri one is failing .
Since Colorado and Washington in 2012 , it ’ s become a budding tradition for states to vote on ballot initiatives to legalize recreational marijuana .
That continues in 2020 with Proposition 207 in Arizona , Constitutional Initiative 118 and Initiative 190 in Montana , Public Question 1 in New Jersey and Constitutional Amendment A in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ as well as Mississippi , is also voting on whether to allow medical marijuana . )
Polls suggest all five measures are on track to pass , which would make recreational marijuana legal in a total of 15 states plus Washington , D.C .
However , one drug-policy ballot initiative this year is very much a first : Measure 110 in Oregon would decriminalize possession of all drugs in small amounts ( although manufacturing and sales would still be illegal ) and use the money not spent on drug enforcement to fund addiction @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is Proposition 115 in Colorado , which would ban abortions after 22 weeks of pregnancy unless the mother ’ s life is in imminent danger .
One of the states with the fewest restrictions on abortion access , Colorado has voted on three anti-abortion ballot measures in the past 12 years and rejected them all .
Proposition 115 may meet a similar fate , as the latest poll shows it losing 51 percent to 42 percent .
Previous surveys were within the margin of error , but the Vote No on 115 campaign @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and donations after the death of Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg .
Other measures could put more money in people ’ s pockets — or take it out of them .
In Florida , Amendment 2 would raise the state ’ s minimum wage to $ 15 per hour by 2026 .
Based on polling , it ’ s a close call whether it garners the 60 percent of the vote necessary to pass .
Meanwhile , Illinois will vote on whether to amend the state constitution to allow for a graduated @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Illinois income is taxed at the same 4.95 percent rate ) .
The amendment is a top priority of Gov .
JB Pritzker , who has proposed raising taxes on people making more than $ 250,000 per year to help close the state ’ s roughly $ 3 billion deficit .
And the wealthy Pritzker is putting his money where his mouth is : He ’ s donated nearly all of the $ 60 million raised in support of the amendment .
Meanwhile , fellow billionaire Ken Griffin is responsible for most of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ raised to oppose it .
But the 2020 referendum that could have the biggest impact on the future of the United States isn ’ t even in a state at all : Puerto Rico will vote on a nonbinding referendum asking simply , “ Should Puerto Rico be admitted immediately into the union as a state ?
” Although the vote is purely symbolic ( it takes an act of Congress to admit new states ) , it ’ s something to keep an eye on given that our forecast gives Democrats a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ legislative and executive power in Washington , and Democrats have repeatedly tossed around the idea of granting Puerto Rico statehood if its residents want it .
Although this is the sixth time that Puerto Rico has voted on statehood since 1967 , previous results have been inconclusive : The vote has either been split between multiple alternatives ( as happened in 2012 ) , or there was even a boycott of the election by statehood opponents ( as in 2017 ) .
By contrast , this year ’ s referendum is the first @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a straight up-or-down vote , and there is no organized effort to boycott the vote .
However , polls suggest a fair number of Puerto Ricans may still sit it out .
One recent poll found roughly equal support for and opposition to the referendum , but 17.5 percent of respondents said they would not participate in the election .

People who say that the U.S. is a republic and not a democracy apparently haven’t heard of ballot measures. Every year, some states allow citizens to bypass their elected representatives and weigh in directly on an issue — bringing policy to the forefront of the campaign in a way it often is not in candidate elections.
After all, it is through ballot measures that we’ve gotten laws that were either too bold or too partisan to pass legislatively, such as Colorado and Washington becoming the first states to legalize recreational marijuana, California restricting undocumented immigrants’ access to public education and health care and five red states expanding Medicaid.
[Live Updates: We’re Tracking The Vote And Voting Problems]
But this year, the pandemic has made it difficult for ballot-measure campaigns to collect enough signatures to make the ballot. According to the National Conference of State Legislatures, there are only 121 statewide ballot measures being decided in the 2020 general election — the fewest in a presidential or midterm year since 1986. (By contrast, there were 154 in 2016 and 174 in 2012.) But the ones that did make the ballot are as interesting as ever. Here are 21 ballot measures we’ll be watching closely on Nov. 3.
What are the chances we’ll know the next president on election night?
Any conversation about ballot measures naturally starts in California, a state with a long history of direct democracy. There are 12 initiatives on the general-election ballot there this year, and four deserve special attention:
Several ballot measures up for election this year deal with elections themselves. For example, if Question 2 passes, Massachusetts could join Maine in switching to ranked-choice voting. And if Florida’s Amendment 3 passes, traditional partisan primaries for state (but not federal) office could be replaced with top-two primaries, like those currently used in California, Louisiana and Washington. Alaska’s Ballot Measure 2 is a unique combination of both of these reforms: It would implement a jungle primary from which the top four finishers advance — and then use ranked-choice voting to decide among them in the general election.
And those who want to abolish the Electoral College will be watching Proposition 113 closely in Colorado. Last year, Colorado became the first swing state to sign onto the National Popular Vote interstate compact, whose signatories pledge their electoral votes to the winner of the national popular vote (but only after states worth a majority of electoral votes agree to do so). But opponents quickly gathered enough signatures to put the law before a public vote; if voters reject it, Colorado will become the first state to withdraw from the compact. Polls have shown a tight race.
Mississippi will also vote on Ballot Measure 2, which would repeal the state’s own version of the Electoral College: a requirement that candidates for statewide office carry a majority of state House districts as well as a majority of the popular vote. Part of the state’s 1890 Jim Crow constitution, the law was designed to make it harder for Black voters to elect their preferred candidates, and even today, it makes it extremely difficult for Democrats to win.
Voters in two states will also decide who draws new electoral maps after the 2020 census. Amendment #1 in Virginia would take that power away from the current Democratic legislature and governor and invest it in a bipartisan commission; legislators would still have to approve the map, but if they failed to do so, responsibility for redistricting would fall to the courts. Meanwhile, in Missouri, the passage of Amendment 3 would defang the redistricting reform initiative that 62 percent of voters approved in 2018. Instead of a nonpartisan state demographer drawing state-legislative districts, a governor-appointed committee of both Republicans and Democrats would draw them. Polls of both proposals contain good news for fans of less partisan redistricting: the Virginia measure is passing, while the Missouri one is failing.
Since Colorado and Washington in 2012, it’s become a budding tradition for states to vote on ballot initiatives to legalize recreational marijuana. That continues in 2020 with Proposition 207 in Arizona, Constitutional Initiative 118 and Initiative 190 in Montana, Public Question 1 in New Jersey and Constitutional Amendment A in South Dakota. (South Dakota, as well as Mississippi, is also voting on whether to allow medical marijuana.) Polls suggest all five measures are on track to pass, which would make recreational marijuana legal in a total of 15 states plus Washington, D.C. However, one drug-policy ballot initiative this year is very much a first: Measure 110 in Oregon would decriminalize possession of all drugs in small amounts (although manufacturing and sales would still be illegal) and use the money not spent on drug enforcement to fund addiction and recovery programs.
FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast: How the electorate will be different in 2020
Another contentious measure is Proposition 115 in Colorado, which would ban abortions after 22 weeks of pregnancy unless the mother’s life is in imminent danger. One of the states with the fewest restrictions on abortion access, Colorado has voted on three anti-abortion ballot measures in the past 12 years and rejected them all. Proposition 115 may meet a similar fate, as the latest poll shows it losing 51 percent to 42 percent. Previous surveys were within the margin of error, but the Vote No on 115 campaign says it received a surge of volunteers and donations after the death of Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg.
Other measures could put more money in people’s pockets — or take it out of them. In Florida, Amendment 2 would raise the state’s minimum wage to $15 per hour by 2026. Based on polling, it’s a close call whether it garners the 60 percent of the vote necessary to pass. Meanwhile, Illinois will vote on whether to amend the state constitution to allow for a graduated income tax (right now, all Illinois income is taxed at the same 4.95 percent rate). The amendment is a top priority of Gov. JB Pritzker, who has proposed raising taxes on people making more than $250,000 per year to help close the state’s roughly $3 billion deficit. And the wealthy Pritzker is putting his money where his mouth is: He’s donated nearly all of the $60 million raised in support of the amendment. Meanwhile, fellow billionaire Ken Griffin is responsible for most of the $50 million that has been raised to oppose it.
But the 2020 referendum that could have the biggest impact on the future of the United States isn’t even in a state at all: Puerto Rico will vote on a nonbinding referendum asking simply, “Should Puerto Rico be admitted immediately into the union as a state?” Although the vote is purely symbolic (it takes an act of Congress to admit new states), it’s something to keep an eye on given that our forecast gives Democrats a 75 in 100 chance of winning full legislative and executive power in Washington, and Democrats have repeatedly tossed around the idea of granting Puerto Rico statehood if its residents want it.
Although this is the sixth time that Puerto Rico has voted on statehood since 1967, previous results have been inconclusive: The vote has either been split between multiple alternatives (as happened in 2012), or there was even a boycott of the election by statehood opponents (as in 2017). By contrast, this year’s referendum is the first time it’ll be asked as a straight up-or-down vote, and there is no organized effort to boycott the vote. However, polls suggest a fair number of Puerto Ricans may still sit it out. One recent poll found roughly equal support for and opposition to the referendum, but 17.5 percent of respondents said they would not participate in the election.


fivethirthyeight--2020-10-31--11 States Are Choosing Their Governor On Tuesday. Here Are The Races To Watch.

On Tuesday , voters will cast the last ballots in the Nov. 3 races for president , the U.S. House of Representatives and , in 34 states , the U.S. Senate .
But in 11 states , voters will also pick their next governor .
It ’ s more common to hold governors ’ races during midterm elections , so the few gubernatorial contests held in presidential election years sometimes get overlooked while the spotlight is trained on races for federal office .
But these elections will affect states ’ policies and other important political matters , including the congressional @ @ @ @ @ @ @ place after the 2020 census .
This year , though , it ’ s possible that these contests are being overlooked in part because only a handful look competitive , and in most cases voters are expected to reelect sitting governors rather than usher in a new state executive .
Still , in some contests , the lack of competitiveness is fascinating because the likely winner comes from the party that ’ s weaker in that state ’ s federal elections .
Plus , a few other races have popped up on the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ outcomes .
As you can see in the table below , election handicappers ’ ratings suggest that the incumbent governor — or party — looks likely or almost certain to hold onto power in nine states , while two other races are closer and could see the out-of-power party flip control .
The most competitive race looks to be Montana , which is the only one that election handicappers label a toss-up .
It ’ s an open-seat contest because Democratic Gov .
Steve Bullock can ’ t serve again due to term @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Senate instead ) , so Republican Rep. Greg Gianforte and Democratic Lt. Gov .
Mike Cooney are each seeking to take over the governor ’ s mansion in Helena .
Gianforte lost a previous attempt at this seat — failing to unseat Bullock in 2016 by 4 percentage points , 50 percent to 46 percent — and then won a 2017 special election to the House , where he ’ s been serving since .
For his part , Cooney became lieutenant governor in 2015 because of a vacancy and then was elected @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 2016 .
It appears that Gianforte may have a slight edge in his second bid for the office , as he leads by an average of about 5 points in October polling of this contest .
Now , a 5-point lead is far from safe , but Gianforte also has a notable fundraising — and self-funding — advantage in the contest , which may be boosting him as well .
As of late October , Gianforte had raised $ 11.2 million , $ 7.6 million of which came from his own pocket .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ $ 3.5 million through late October , with no self-funding .
Still , Cooney ’ s not out of it , thanks to Montana ’ s recent preference for Democrats in gubernatorial races — Democrats have held the office for 16 years — and an openness to splitting tickets to back down-ballot Democrats while voting for a Republican presidential candidate .
That ’ s why the state has relatively competitive contests for governor , Senate and House even though President Trump is likely to carry Montana in the national race .
Beyond Montana @ @ @ @ @ @ @ handicappers view as pretty competitive is in Missouri , where Republican Gov .
Mike Parson has an edge over Democratic State Auditor Nicole Galloway , who is the lone Democrat to hold statewide elected office in Missouri .
Although Parson is the incumbent , he ’ s seeking his first full term — he took over the governorship in 2018 after then-Gov .
Eric Greitens resigned amid a scandal .
We don ’ t have quite as much recent polling in Missouri , but Parson appears to have a lead — it ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
The last nonpartisan pollster to look at the race was St. Louis University/YouGov , which found Parson up 6 points , 50 percent to 44 percent , in early October .
That isn ’ t too different from what we ’ ve seen in surveys by Republican pollsters such as Cygnal and Remington Research , which this month found Parson ahead by about 7 points and 8 points , respectively .
The point is , the race could be close enough that Galloway might surprise , but Parson will be favored heading @ @ @ @ @ @ @ hopes may rest on the public ’ s mixed views of Parson ’ s handling of the pandemic : The SLU/YouGov survey found that 48 percent approved of how he ’ s dealt with COVID-19 , while 48 percent disapproved .
Just two other races aren ’ t viewed as safe for one party or the other in 2020 , but both look likely to reelect their incumbent governors .
In New Hampshire , most polling this month has shown Republican Gov .
Chris Sununu with a double-digit lead — sometimes more than @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Dan Feltes , and Sununu enjoys a very high approval rating , in part because many New Hampshire voters have positive views of his handling of COVID-19 .
And Sununu ’ s clear advantage is notable because it belies New Hampshire status as a purplish state that has recently been pretty close in presidential elections .
In North Carolina , meanwhile , Democratic Gov .
Roy Cooper looks favored to win reelection despite North Carolina ’ s slight Republican tilt .
In 2016 , Cooper managed to defeat an unpopular incumbent governor by @ @ @ @ @ @ @ as Trump narrowly carried the state .
But this time around , he looks to be in better shape against Republican Lt. Gov .
Dan Forest .
( North Caroline elects its governor and lieutenant governor separately , occasionally leading to members of different parties serving at the same time . )
Although polls don ’ t give Cooper as big a lead as the one Sununu enjoys , recent surveys have regularly given Cooper an edge in the high single digits or low double digits .
Here , too , an incumbent @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the race and giving Cooper a boost .
A WRAL/SurveyUSA poll released on Thursday found that 57 percent of North Carolinians approved of Cooper ’ s handling of the coronavirus .
The seven remaining contests are all viewed as safe for one party or the other , but there are a few interesting tidbits worth mentioning .
In Utah , an open-seat contest to succeed Republican Gov .
Gary Herbert may hold the title of the friendliest election in 2020 .
Republican Lt. Gov .
Spencer Cox and Democratic nominee Chris Peterson recently @ @ @ @ @ @ @ they appeared together to call on Utahns to promote civility and put aside partisanship to accept election outcomes .
Now , the fact that the race isn ’ t close — Cox has led by at least 24 points in every poll — is certainly a contributing factor behind the cordiality on display in Utah , but the ads still garnered a lot of attention in a time of sharp political polarization .
Meanwhile , Vermont ’ s contest demonstrates how gubernatorial elections don ’ t always operate like federal elections , because @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on track to handily defeat Democratic Lt. Gov .
David Zuckerman in a state that Joe Biden will probably carry by more than 30 points .
While governors ’ contests have become more closely aligned with national politics in recent years , states like Vermont ( and Montana , for that matter ) show that there can still be some separation between state and national politics .
So when you ’ re reading up on the races for president and Congress on Nov. 3 , remember that these gubernatorial contests are on the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ handful appear to be relatively competitive , even some of the uncompetitive ones have quirks to follow as the results come in .

On Tuesday, voters will cast the last ballots in the Nov. 3 races for president, the U.S. House of Representatives and, in 34 states, the U.S. Senate. But in 11 states, voters will also pick their next governor. It’s more common to hold governors’ races during midterm elections, so the few gubernatorial contests held in presidential election years sometimes get overlooked while the spotlight is trained on races for federal office. But these elections will affect states’ policies and other important political matters, including the congressional and state legislative redistricting that will take place after the 2020 census.
What the deluge of final polls can tell us | FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast
This year, though, it’s possible that these contests are being overlooked in part because only a handful look competitive, and in most cases voters are expected to reelect sitting governors rather than usher in a new state executive. Still, in some contests, the lack of competitiveness is fascinating because the likely winner comes from the party that’s weaker in that state’s federal elections. Plus, a few other races have popped up on the national radar despite their potential for lopsided outcomes.
[Live Updates: We’re Tracking The Vote And Voting Problems]
As you can see in the table below, election handicappers’ ratings suggest that the incumbent governor — or party — looks likely or almost certain to hold onto power in nine states, while two other races are closer and could see the out-of-power party flip control.
Few gubernatorial races look competitive States electing governors on the Nov. 3, 2020, by median race rating and partisan lean of the state State Democrat Republican Race Rating* Partisan lean ND Shelley Lenz Doug Burgum i Safe R R+34 WV Ben Salango Jim Justice i Safe R R+33 UT Chris Peterson Spencer Cox Safe R R+30 MO Nicole Galloway Mike Parson i Lean R R+21 MT Mike Cooney Greg Gianforte Toss-up R+18 IN Woody Myers Eric Holcomb i Safe R R+17 NC Roy Cooper i Dan Forest Likely D R+4 NH Dan Feltes Chris Sununu i Likely R R+1 DE John Carney i Julianne Murray Safe D D+12 WA Jay Inslee i Loren Culp Safe D D+15 VT David Zuckerman Phil Scott i Safe R D+24 i Incumbent
* Median rating of the three given by election handicappers The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections and Sabato’s Crystal Ball. Sources: The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato’s Crystal Ball
The most competitive race looks to be Montana, which is the only one that election handicappers label a toss-up. It’s an open-seat contest because Democratic Gov. Steve Bullock can’t serve again due to term limits (he’s running for Senate instead), so Republican Rep. Greg Gianforte and Democratic Lt. Gov. Mike Cooney are each seeking to take over the governor’s mansion in Helena. Gianforte lost a previous attempt at this seat — failing to unseat Bullock in 2016 by 4 percentage points, 50 percent to 46 percent — and then won a 2017 special election to the House, where he’s been serving since. For his part, Cooney became lieutenant governor in 2015 because of a vacancy and then was elected as Bullock’s running mate in 2016.
It appears that Gianforte may have a slight edge in his second bid for the office, as he leads by an average of about 5 points in October polling of this contest.
The GOP has an edge in Montana’s governor race Montana gubernatorial candidates’ margin in polls conducted in October 2020 Pollster Date Gianforte (R) Cooney(D) Margin Montana State Univ. Billings Oct. 19-24 45% 45% EVEN Siena College/NYT Upshot Oct. 18-20 48 44 R+4 RMG Research Oct. 15-18 48 45 R+3 Strategies 360 Oct. 15-20 48 41 R+7 Emerson College Oct. 5-7 54 41 R+12 October average 49 43 R+5 Source: Polls
Now, a 5-point lead is far from safe, but Gianforte also has a notable fundraising — and self-funding — advantage in the contest, which may be boosting him as well. As of late October, Gianforte had raised $11.2 million, $7.6 million of which came from his own pocket. By comparison, Cooney had raised only $3.5 million through late October, with no self-funding.
Still, Cooney’s not out of it, thanks to Montana’s recent preference for Democrats in gubernatorial races — Democrats have held the office for 16 years — and an openness to splitting tickets to back down-ballot Democrats while voting for a Republican presidential candidate. That’s why the state has relatively competitive contests for governor, Senate and House even though President Trump is likely to carry Montana in the national race.
Beyond Montana, the only other gubernatorial race that handicappers view as pretty competitive is in Missouri, where Republican Gov. Mike Parson has an edge over Democratic State Auditor Nicole Galloway, who is the lone Democrat to hold statewide elected office in Missouri. Although Parson is the incumbent, he’s seeking his first full term — he took over the governorship in 2018 after then-Gov. Eric Greitens resigned amid a scandal.
We don’t have quite as much recent polling in Missouri, but Parson appears to have a lead — it’s just a question of how big. The last nonpartisan pollster to look at the race was St. Louis University/YouGov, which found Parson up 6 points, 50 percent to 44 percent, in early October. That isn’t too different from what we’ve seen in surveys by Republican pollsters such as Cygnal and Remington Research, which this month found Parson ahead by about 7 points and 8 points, respectively. The point is, the race could be close enough that Galloway might surprise, but Parson will be favored heading into Election Day. Galloway’s hopes may rest on the public’s mixed views of Parson’s handling of the pandemic: The SLU/YouGov survey found that 48 percent approved of how he’s dealt with COVID-19, while 48 percent disapproved.
Just two other races aren’t viewed as safe for one party or the other in 2020, but both look likely to reelect their incumbent governors. In New Hampshire, most polling this month has shown Republican Gov. Chris Sununu with a double-digit lead — sometimes more than 20 points — over Democratic state Sen. Dan Feltes, and Sununu enjoys a very high approval rating, in part because many New Hampshire voters have positive views of his handling of COVID-19. And Sununu’s clear advantage is notable because it belies New Hampshire status as a purplish state that has recently been pretty close in presidential elections.
In North Carolina, meanwhile, Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper looks favored to win reelection despite North Carolina’s slight Republican tilt. In 2016, Cooper managed to defeat an unpopular incumbent governor by the skin of his teeth, even as Trump narrowly carried the state. But this time around, he looks to be in better shape against Republican Lt. Gov. Dan Forest. (North Carolina elects its governor and lieutenant governor separately, occasionally leading to members of different parties serving at the same time.) Although polls don’t give Cooper as big a lead as the one Sununu enjoys, recent surveys have regularly given Cooper an edge in the high single digits or low double digits. Here, too, an incumbent’s COVID-19 response may be affecting the race and giving Cooper a boost. A WRAL/SurveyUSA poll released on Thursday found that 57 percent of North Carolinians approved of Cooper’s handling of the coronavirus.
The seven remaining contests are all viewed as safe for one party or the other, but there are a few interesting tidbits worth mentioning. In Utah, an open-seat contest to succeed Republican Gov. Gary Herbert may hold the title of the friendliest election in 2020. Republican Lt. Gov. Spencer Cox and Democratic nominee Chris Peterson recently ran a series of ads in which they appeared together to call on Utahns to promote civility and put aside partisanship to accept election outcomes. Now, the fact that the race isn’t close — Cox has led by at least 24 points in every poll — is certainly a contributing factor behind the cordiality on display in Utah, but the ads still garnered a lot of attention in a time of sharp political polarization.
Meanwhile, Vermont’s contest demonstrates how gubernatorial elections don’t always operate like federal elections, because incumbent Republican Gov. Phil Scott appears on track to handily defeat Democratic Lt. Gov. David Zuckerman in a state that Joe Biden will probably carry by more than 30 points. While governors’ contests have become more closely aligned with national politics in recent years, states like Vermont (and Montana, for that matter) show that there can still be some separation between state and national politics.
So when you’re reading up on the races for president and Congress on Nov. 3, remember that these gubernatorial contests are on the ballot, too. While only a handful appear to be relatively competitive, even some of the uncompetitive ones have quirks to follow as the results come in.
What election stories need to get more coverage | FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast


fivethirthyeight--2020-10-31--Trump Can Still Win, But The Polls Would Have To Be Off By Way More Than In 2016

To borrow from Cook Political Report ’ s Dave Wasserman , “ I ’ ve seen enough.
” No , I don ’ t know who ’ s going to win the election .
According to our forecast , President Trump still has a chance at a second term : a 10 percent chance , to be more specific .
But — even though we ’ ll still get a ton of polls on Sunday and Monday — I ’ ve seen enough based on the polls we got earlier this week to know that things aren ’ t likely @ @ @ @ @ @ @ forecast between now and just after midnight on Tuesday , when we ’ ll freeze it .
What are the chances we ’ ll know the next president on election night ?
There just hasn ’ t been any real sign that the race is tightening .
If anything , Joe Biden ’ s margins are expanding slightly in the Upper Midwest .
And there isn ’ t any particular reason to expect the race to tighten when more than 90 million people have already voted and the most important news story — @ @ @ @ @ @ @ record for the number of COVID-19 cases in a day — is a negative one for Trump .
In fact , in many states , such as North Carolina , we ’ ve gotten what are likely to be the final polls of the state from most of the major polling firms .
The one important exception is Pennsylvania , which some high-quality pollsters seem to have kept as the last state they ’ re planning to poll .
And those polls could matter quite a bit .
Pennsylvania is the most likely @ @ @ @ @ @ @ electoral vote around 37 percent of the time in our forecast ) , so any deviation from Biden ’ s current 5.1-point lead in the polls there — say , if Biden climbs to a 6-point lead or falls to a 4-point lead — could make a fairly big difference in our forecast .
But what we ’ ve seen so far in Pennsylvania doesn ’ t suggest much movement in the polls .
We ’ ve gotten two live-caller polls since the debate : A Muhlenberg College poll published this morning had @ @ @ @ @ @ @ matching our average in the state .
And a Quinnipiac University poll had Biden ahead by 7 , which is not quite as good for Biden as it might seem — Quinnipiac has generally had friendly results for him this cycle and their previous poll of the state had him up by 7 as well .
And if nothing changes at all in the polls , Biden ’ s chances of winning will nonetheless increase slightly by Tuesday morning in our forecast .
That ’ s for two reasons : • Trump is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ forecast based on economic conditions and incumbency , currently amounting to an 0.2-percentage-point shift .
But this will fall to 0 percent by Election Day .
• Uncertainty in the forecast will also be slightly reduced when we actually make it to Election Day .
That said , Biden ’ s current lead of 8 to 9 points nationally is quite large given our highly polarized political environment , so maybe a few of the remaining undecided voters will drift to Trump .
Don ’ t be surprised if Biden drops to 86 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ — in our final forecast .
But I don ’ t think that Biden and Trump are likely to escape the current zone that they ’ re in .
Here ’ s what I mean by that : I think of election forecast odds as basically falling within the following four zones .
The Gray Area is the closest zone , when it ’ s actually hard to tell who ’ s ahead , and different methods of averaging the polls or modeling out the results might give you different answers .
The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ this year : Biden is unambiguously ahead in the polls .
The Normal-Polling-Error Zone is a place we talked about in 2016 , when we told you that Trump was only a normal-sized polling error away from beating Hillary Clinton .
What did that mean ?
It meant that if polls were off by about the amount they ’ ve been off in past elections — by around 3 points , on average — and the error favored Trump , then he ’ d probably win the Electoral College .
And that ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ polling was worse in some states than others .
In probability terms , I think of the Normal-Polling-Error Zone as extending from the favorite having anything from around a 60 percent chance up to around an 84 percent chance of winning .
That amounts to an error of no more than one standard deviation .
Or to put it another way , it ’ s a zone where polling errors big enough for the underdog to win are going to occur quite routinely without anything particularly special having to happen .
Polling is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ get the outcome right more often than not , nailing every election to within a point or two is hard .
The Zone of Plausibility .
This is where we are this year .
I think of the Zone of Plausibility as extending out to reflect an error of up to two standard deviations — so , it ’ s a race where the favorite has somewhere from an 84 percent to 98 percent chance of winning .
You wouldn ’ t consider the underdog winning in an election like this to be @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , it ’ s plausible , and it isn ’ t that hard to find precedents for it .
The polls were off by more than 7 points in 1980 , for instance , underestimating Ronald Reagan ’ s margin of victory .
( That would likely be enough for Trump to win in an election where he trails in the most likely tipping-point state , Pennsylvania , by 5 points . )
Harry Truman beat the final Gallup poll in 1948 by 9 points in an upset victory .
And the polls @ @ @ @ @ @ @ underestimating Bob Dole .
Now , we can debate exactly how applicable those precedents are today .
There ’ s much more polling this year than in 1980 or in 1996 .
And in 1948 , it wasn ’ t “ the polling ” that was off since there was just one polling firm , Gallup — maybe if there had been a Quinnipiac poll or something back then , it would correctly have forecasted Truman ’ s victory .
The point , though , again , is that a Trump win is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ I ’ ve seen have Trump within the Zone of Plausibility too , although the Economist ’ s model , which has his chances at 4 percent , is pushing it a bit .
At the same time , though , a 2016-style polling error wouldn ’ t be enough for Trump to win .
In the chart below — taking a page from The Upshot , which has also been doing this — I ’ ve taken our final polling averages in 2016 and shown how they compared to the actual results @ @ @ @ @ @ @ what the results would be based on this year ’ s polling average if the polls were exactly as wrong as in 2016 in exactly the same states .
Takeaway ?
Joe Biden would win .
In fact , he ’ d win 335 electoral votes , including those in Florida , Georgia and Arizona .
A lot of these wins would be close — he ’ d win by around 2 points in Arizona and Wisconsin , by and less than 1 point in Florida , Georgia and Pennsylvania , so he @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , but he ’ d win .
Meanwhile , although there are a lot of uncertainties this year that our model tries to account for — for instance , whether pollsters are correctly blending the early vote with the Election Day vote — there are also other things that could make a big polling error less likely .
For instance , the polls have been very stable so far in the race , and the large number of people who have already voted makes a last-minute shift even less likely .
There are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is polling at above 50 percent in all states that Clinton won except Nevada , plus he clears that line Wisconsin , Michigan , Pennsylvania ( albeit just barely ; he ’ s at 50.1 percent there ) and Nebraska ’ s 2nd Congressional District .
Those are enough to give him 273 electoral votes .
What ’ s beyond the Zone of Plausibility ?
Well , there are The Outer Reaches .
But you don ’ t want to visit .
It ’ s a cold , barren place , full of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ have fat tails ( ours do ! )
and how much you can distinguish , say , a 1-in-100 probability from a 1-in-1,000 one when you have only 15 or 20 elections in your sample to work from .
But we ’ re not in the Outer Reaches , and we ’ re very unlikely to wind up there before Tuesday .
A Trump win remains plausible .
And note that , with his 10 percent chance , our model is specifically referring to a legitimate win ; we do not account for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ” by Trump or anyone else , such as trying to prevent mail ballots from being counted .
Still , Trump isn ’ t in as strong a position as he was in 2016 .
As you can see in the table above , he ’ s polling worse than he was against Clinton in every single battleground state .
Polls can be wrong — indeed , the whole point of our probabilistic forecast is to tell you the chances of that — but they ’ re more likely to be wrong when @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
As of right now , Biden ’ s lead is large enough that Trump ’ s chances of winning are 10 percent , considerably lower than the 35 percent chance he had at this point in 2016 .

Trump Can Still Win, But The Polls Would Have To Be Off By Way More Than In 2016
To borrow from Cook Political Report’s Dave Wasserman, “I’ve seen enough.”
No, I don’t know who’s going to win the election. According to our forecast, President Trump still has a chance at a second term: a 10 percent chance, to be more specific.
[Live Updates: We’re Tracking The Vote And Voting Problems]
But — even though we’ll still get a ton of polls on Sunday and Monday — I’ve seen enough based on the polls we got earlier this week to know that things aren’t likely to change all that much in our forecast between now and just after midnight on Tuesday, when we’ll freeze it.
What are the chances we’ll know the next president on election night?
There just hasn’t been any real sign that the race is tightening. If anything, Joe Biden’s margins are expanding slightly in the Upper Midwest. And there isn’t any particular reason to expect the race to tighten when more than 90 million people have already voted and the most important news story — that the United States just set a record for the number of COVID-19 cases in a day — is a negative one for Trump.
In fact, in many states, such as North Carolina, we’ve gotten what are likely to be the final polls of the state from most of the major polling firms. The one important exception is Pennsylvania, which some high-quality pollsters seem to have kept as the last state they’re planning to poll. And those polls could matter quite a bit. Pennsylvania is the most likely tipping-point state (it delivers the 270th electoral vote around 37 percent of the time in our forecast), so any deviation from Biden’s current 5.1-point lead in the polls there — say, if Biden climbs to a 6-point lead or falls to a 4-point lead — could make a fairly big difference in our forecast.
But what we’ve seen so far in Pennsylvania doesn’t suggest much movement in the polls. We’ve gotten two live-caller polls since the debate: A Muhlenberg College poll published this morning had Biden up by 5 points, closely matching our average in the state. And a Quinnipiac University poll had Biden ahead by 7, which is not quite as good for Biden as it might seem — Quinnipiac has generally had friendly results for him this cycle and their previous poll of the state had him up by 7 as well.
And if nothing changes at all in the polls, Biden’s chances of winning will nonetheless increase slightly by Tuesday morning in our forecast. That’s for two reasons:
Trump is still receiving a tiny boost in our forecast based on economic conditions and incumbency, currently amounting to an 0.2-percentage-point shift. But this will fall to 0 percent by Election Day. Uncertainty in the forecast will also be slightly reduced when we actually make it to Election Day.
That said, Biden’s current lead of 8 to 9 points nationally is quite large given our highly polarized political environment, so maybe a few of the remaining undecided voters will drift to Trump. Don’t be surprised if Biden drops to 86 percent — or jumps to 94 percent — in our final forecast.
But I don’t think that Biden and Trump are likely to escape the current zone that they’re in. Here’s what I mean by that: I think of election forecast odds as basically falling within the following four zones.
The Gray Area.
The Normal-Polling-Error Zone.
The Zone of Plausibility.
The Outer Reaches.
The Gray Area is the closest zone, when it’s actually hard to tell who’s ahead, and different methods of averaging the polls or modeling out the results might give you different answers. The race isn’t in that zone this year: Biden is unambiguously ahead in the polls.
The Normal-Polling-Error Zone is a place we talked about in 2016, when we told you that Trump was only a normal-sized polling error away from beating Hillary Clinton. What did that mean? It meant that if polls were off by about the amount they’ve been off in past elections — by around 3 points, on average — and the error favored Trump, then he’d probably win the Electoral College. And that’s basically what happened, although the polling was worse in some states than others.
In probability terms, I think of the Normal-Polling-Error Zone as extending from the favorite having anything from around a 60 percent chance up to around an 84 percent chance of winning. That amounts to an error of no more than one standard deviation. Or to put it another way, it’s a zone where polling errors big enough for the underdog to win are going to occur quite routinely without anything particularly special having to happen. Polling is a challenging business, and while polls get the outcome right more often than not, nailing every election to within a point or two is hard.
The Zone of Plausibility. This is where we are this year. I think of the Zone of Plausibility as extending out to reflect an error of up to two standard deviations — so, it’s a race where the favorite has somewhere from an 84 percent to 98 percent chance of winning. You wouldn’t consider the underdog winning in an election like this to be a routine occurrence. But, well, it’s plausible, and it isn’t that hard to find precedents for it.
The polls were off by more than 7 points in 1980, for instance, underestimating Ronald Reagan’s margin of victory. (That would likely be enough for Trump to win in an election where he trails in the most likely tipping-point state, Pennsylvania, by 5 points.) Harry Truman beat the final Gallup poll in 1948 by 9 points in an upset victory. And the polls missed by 5 points in 1996, underestimating Bob Dole.
The @FiveThirtyEight nat'l polling average with 3 days until E-Day: 2020: Biden+8.6
2016: Clinton+3.9
2012: Obama+0.3
2008: Obama+6.7
2004: Bush+2.3
2000: Bush+3.6
1996: Clinton+13.8
1992: Clinton+7.6
1988: Bush+10.1
1984: Reagan+17.7
1980: Reagan+2.2
1976: Carter+0.03 — Nathaniel Rakich (@baseballot) October 31, 2020
Now, we can debate exactly how applicable those precedents are today. There’s much more polling this year than in 1980 or in 1996. And in 1948, it wasn’t “the polling” that was off since there was just one polling firm, Gallup — maybe if there had been a Quinnipiac poll or something back then, it would correctly have forecasted Truman’s victory.
The point, though, again, is that a Trump win is plausible. And all the other models I’ve seen have Trump within the Zone of Plausibility too, although the Economist’s model, which has his chances at 4 percent, is pushing it a bit.
At the same time, though, a 2016-style polling error wouldn’t be enough for Trump to win. In the chart below — taking a page from The Upshot, which has also been doing this — I’ve taken our final polling averages in 2016 and shown how they compared to the actual results. And then I’ve shown what the results would be based on this year’s polling average if the polls were exactly as wrong as in 2016 in exactly the same states.
What if polls are as wrong as 2016? Biden still wins State polling averages for Clinton pre-election and her final margin in that state. Current state polling averages for Biden, and what the margin would be if the 2016 errors were repeated Democrats’ polling lead or deficit Clinton 2016 Biden 2020 State Polling Average Final Margin Polling Average With the 2016 error … Arizona -2.3 -3.5 +3.1 +1.9 Colorado +3.8 +4.9 +13.8 +14.9 Florida +0.5 -1.2 +2.1 +0.4 Georgia -4.0 -5.1 +1.6 +0.5 Iowa -3.4 -9.4 +0.1 -5.9 Maine +6.9 -3.0 +13.8 +3.9 ME-2 -0.4 -10.3 +2.6 -7.3 Michigan +4.0 -0.2 +8.8 +4.6 Minnesota +5.9 +1.5 +8.9 +4.5 NE-2 -0.7 -2.2 +6.2 +4.7 Nevada +0.7 +2.4 +5.8 +7.5 New Hampshire +3.4 +0.4 +11.1 +8.1 New Mexico +5.3 +8.2 +11.0 +13.9 North Carolina +0.7 -3.7 +2.4 -2.0 Ohio -2.0 -8.1 -0.9 -7.0 Pennsylvania +3.7 -0.7 +5.1 +0.7 Texas -8.5 -9.0 -1.0 -1.5 Virginia +5.4 +5.3 +11.4 +11.3 Wisconsin +5.4 -0.8 +8.6 +2.4 Source: Polls
Takeaway? Joe Biden would win. In fact, he’d win 335 electoral votes, including those in Florida, Georgia and Arizona. A lot of these wins would be close — he’d win by around 2 points in Arizona and Wisconsin, by and less than 1 point in Florida, Georgia and Pennsylvania, so he’d have to sweat a bit, but he’d win.
Meanwhile, although there are a lot of uncertainties this year that our model tries to account for — for instance, whether pollsters are correctly blending the early vote with the Election Day vote — there are also other things that could make a big polling error less likely. For instance, the polls have been very stable so far in the race, and the large number of people who have already voted makes a last-minute shift even less likely. There are also few undecided voters: Joe Biden is polling at above 50 percent in all states that Clinton won except Nevada, plus he clears that line Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania (albeit just barely; he’s at 50.1 percent there) and Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District. Those are enough to give him 273 electoral votes.
What’s beyond the Zone of Plausibility? Well, there are The Outer Reaches. But you don’t want to visit. It’s a cold, barren place, full of esoteric debates about whether probability distributions should have fat tails (ours do!) and how much you can distinguish, say, a 1-in-100 probability from a 1-in-1,000 one when you have only 15 or 20 elections in your sample to work from.
But we’re not in the Outer Reaches, and we’re very unlikely to wind up there before Tuesday. A Trump win remains plausible. And note that, with his 10 percent chance, our model is specifically referring to a legitimate win; we do not account for what we call “extraconstitutional shenanigans,” by Trump or anyone else, such as trying to prevent mail ballots from being counted.
Still, Trump isn’t in as strong a position as he was in 2016. As you can see in the table above, he’s polling worse than he was against Clinton in every single battleground state. Polls can be wrong — indeed, the whole point of our probabilistic forecast is to tell you the chances of that — but they’re more likely to be wrong when a candidate’s lead is narrower. As of right now, Biden’s lead is large enough that Trump’s chances of winning are 10 percent, considerably lower than the 35 percent chance he had at this point in 2016.
Polling 101: Should You Trust The Polls In 2020? | FiveThirtyEight


fivethirthyeight--2020-10-31--Both Candidates Might Fall Short Of 270 Electoral Votes On Election Night. But How Close Might They

Both Candidates Might Fall Short Of 270 Electoral Votes On Election Night. But How Close Might They Get?

Welcome to FiveThirtyEight ’ s Election Update for Saturday , October 31 !
According to the FiveThirtyEight forecast , Joe Biden has a 90 in 100 chance of becoming the 46th president of the United States , while President Trump still has a 10 in 100 chance of winning reelection .
In the Senate , Democrats have a 78 in 100 chance of taking control , while the party is also a 98 in 100 favorite to keep the House .
But this year , in addition to the burning question of “ Who will win ?
” people are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ When will we know the results ?
” To help answer that , FiveThirtyEight published a comprehensive guide to following the returns on election night , including when the polls close in each state and what time we might get semi-final results .
So let ’ s walk through election night hour by hour , using our forecast as a guide to get a better understanding of just how many electoral votes might be accounted for , including how many Trump and Biden can each expect to win .
( Spoiler : Unless @ @ @ @ @ @ @ night , it ’ s unlikely that either will hit 270 electoral votes on election night . )
The earliest that TV networks , the Associated Press and other election adjudicators will be able to officially project the winner in any state is 7 p.m. Eastern , when the last polls close in six states .
Of these , Indiana , Kentucky and South Carolina all have at least a 92 in 100 chance of going to Trump , so let ’ s assume those 28 electoral votes go in the Republican column @ @ @ @ @ @ @ early that they can be quickly projected ) .
But Vermont and Virginia are also at least 99 percent likely to go for Biden and should report results quickly , so he will probably quickly earn their combined 16 electoral votes , putting Trump at 28 and Biden at 16 .
The one wild card in this first batch of closings is Georgia and who will win its 16 electoral votes .
And because our forecast is expecting a very tight race there , it may take days before we have an answer @ @ @ @ @ @ @ certainly win West Virginia and its five electoral votes , and that should be apparent early in the night .
However , North Carolina and Ohio are more up in the air , according to our forecast .
If Biden is having a really good night , it ’ s conceivable that we ’ ll know who won in both states on election night because both count most of their votes relatively quickly ; if that happens , Biden would gain 33 electoral votes from them combined .
However , if these states @ @ @ @ @ @ @ they ’ ll be , they could remain unprojected for days as we wait for the last few mail-in ballots to arrive ( both states accept mail-in ballots that are received after Election Day as long as they are properly postmarked ) .
On the other hand , if Trump is having a good night , these states could be projected for him , and he could gain a total of 38 electoral votes from states that stop voting at 7:30 p.m. We might get a bonanza of results starting at 8 p.m. @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that time will probably be projected by ABC News and other media outlets pretty quickly : Alabama , Mississippi , Missouri , Oklahoma and Tennessee all have at least a 91 in 100 chance of voting for Trump , so it ’ s probably safe to say he will be quickly awarded their 43 combined electoral votes .
Likewise , Delaware , Illinois , Maine , Maine ’ s 1st Congressional District , Massachusetts , New Hampshire and Rhode Island will probably be projected for Biden , given that he has at least @ @ @ @ @ @ @ all those places .
That ’ s worth 45 more electoral votes for the Democrat .
Connecticut , Maryland , New Jersey and Washington , D.C. , will also stop voting at 8 p.m. Eastern and are overwhelmingly likely to vote for Biden .
However , they are expected to count their votes more slowly , so it ’ s less certain when we ’ ll have an idea of who won here .
Given just how blue these states are , though , let ’ s assume that we will know enough @ @ @ @ @ @ @ project them .
That ’ ll ( eventually ) be another 34 electoral votes for Biden .
What are the chances we ’ ll know the next president on election night ?
Where it gets a little murkier is the races where both the vote count will be slow and the outcome of the race is in doubt .
The two races in this category are worth a combined 21 electoral votes , and one of them is a strong bet to decide the final outcome .
First , there ’ s Maine @ @ @ @ @ @ @ we are currently forecasting that neither candidate will surpass 50 percent of the vote .
And because Maine uses ranked-choice voting , that means we could have an automatic runoff on our hands , where the second-place ( or third-place , etc . )
votes of those who voted for minor-party candidates come into play .
This process would not happen until later in the week , though .
Second , Pennsylvania could also be without final results until well after election night , as they ’ re not allowed to start processing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ mail ballots undergo a verification process that means they take longer to count than votes cast in person .
Getting a grasp on the vote count in Pennsylvania could be particularly tricky , too , as Trump may win the election-night returns , while Biden is expected to lead the mail vote , which likely won ’ t be reported right away .
All of this means there is a good chance we won ’ t know who won Pennsylvania until Wednesday at the earliest .
There ’ s also Florida in the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ re not sure who will win here either , the state is different from Maine and Pennsylvania in that we shouldn ’ t have to wait long to find out .
Given how fast Florida counts votes , it would not be a surprise if we get enough results to know who won there shortly after 8 p.m. Eastern .
If Biden wins it ( and he has a 65 in 100 chance of doing so , according to our forecast ) , he would add 29 electoral votes to his ledger @ @ @ @ @ @ @ could win from states whose last polls close at 8 p.m. Eastern .
If , on the other hand , Trump wins Florida , he could net as many as 72 electoral votes this hour .
By 8 p.m. Eastern , states worth exactly 270 electoral votes ( the number needed to win ) will have stopped voting .
However , we still won ’ t be able to declare an overall winner at this point , as it ’ s virtually impossible for either Biden or Trump to run the table in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , whoever wins Florida — one of the likeliest tipping-point states , according to our forecast — will tell us a lot about which way the race is heading .
Case in point : If Trump loses Florida , our forecast believes he has less than a 1 percent chance of recovering to win the overall election .
Only one state stops voting at 8:30 p.m. Eastern : Arkansas .
With its greater than 99 in 100 chance of going red , expect its six electoral votes to be projected for Republicans very @ @ @ @ @ @ @ several races where we should be able to declare a winner quickly because they ’ re simply not competitive .
Kansas , Louisiana , Nebraska , Nebraska ’ s 1st Congressional District , Nebraska ’ s 3rd Congressional District , North Dakota , South Dakota and Wyoming will almost certainly add a combined 27 electoral votes to Trump ’ s total .
And Colorado , Minnesota , New Mexico and New York should add 53 electoral votes to Biden ’ s total .
Michigan and Wisconsin are also likely to vote for Biden @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 100 and 94 in 100 , respectively ) , but because of their swing-state status and slower vote-counting , they probably won ’ t be projected right away .
Wisconsin is expected to take several hours to count all of its mail-in ballots , with final results from Milwaukee not expected to be known until between 4 and 7 a.m. Eastern on Wednesday .
Meanwhile , the secretary of state of Michigan is warning not to expect actionable results until Friday .
However , Biden stands to gain another 26 electoral votes once @ @ @ @ @ @ @ states .
Then there are three races that will probably be too close to know who won on election night .
Biden has a 78 in 100 chance of winning Nebraska ’ s 2nd Congressional District , but that means Trump also has a 22 in 100 chance , so it may take several hours before a winner is declared .
Texas is even closer : Trump has a 63 in 100 chance of victory , while Biden wins 37 out of 100 times , increasing the odds that late-arriving ballots on Wednesday @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s electoral votes .
Finally , Biden has only a small lead in Arizona , so the state may need to count every ballot before we know the winner there — which could take until Thursday or Friday .
Together , these three races are worth 50 electoral votes .
So if Biden has a great night and wins them , he could gain 129 electoral votes from states whose polls close at 9 p.m. Eastern .
If these states go for Trump , though , he could emerge with 77 more @ @ @ @ @ @ @ any winners declared quickly this hour .
Perhaps the most likely of these four states to be resolved early is Utah ; despite a very slow vote-counting process , the state has a 96 in 100 chance of voting for Trump , so it seems possible that we might know who won here based on early vote returns .
That would be worth an additional six electoral votes for Trump .
Similarly , Nevada could take a while to count all of its votes , but Biden has a smaller lead there than @ @ @ @ @ @ @ might be able to add its six electoral votes to his column on election night , but it ’ s perhaps more likely that we won ’ t know who won on election night .
Meanwhile , it ’ s unlikely Iowa will get called either way on election night ; our forecast says its six electoral votes are practically a toss-up , which could mean we won ’ t get final results here for several days .
( In Iowa , absentee ballots can arrive as late as Nov. 9 and still @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the one we ’ re expecting come down to every last vote . )
Finally , Montana should get us a result relatively quickly , but there ’ s some question about what that result will be : While Trump is definitely favored , with an 85 in 100 chance , Biden has a real shot to win its three electoral votes as well ( 15 in 100 ) .
All told , in a best-case scenario for Biden , these states could award 15 electoral votes to Biden and just six to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ outcome for Trump from these states on election night could be winning 15 electoral votes ( he could eventually win Nevada as well to make it a clean sweep , but it ’ s unlikely that would happen on election night ) .
We shouldn ’ t have to wait long for these states to be resolved .
While California and Washington are both known for taking a long time to count their votes , they are also deep-blue states , so they ’ ll likely end up in Biden ’ s column @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a relatively fast-counting state where Biden has a 98 in 100 chance to win .
In total , that means Biden is likely to pick up 74 electoral votes this hour .
By contrast , Trump should pick up only four , from dark-red Idaho .
If Biden has had a great night so far , it ’ s possible that this would be when he clinches a majority of electoral votes .
For example , if he wins all the quickly projected solid-blue states plus Georgia , North Carolina , Ohio , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ at 277 electoral votes .
After 11 p.m. Eastern , there will only be two states left voting : Hawaii , where polls close at midnight Eastern , and Alaska , where the last polls close at 1 a.m. Eastern .
Hawaii and its four electoral votes should quickly get added to Biden ’ s column , given that it counts its votes extremely fast and has a greater than 99 in 100 chance of going blue .
However , we probably won ’ t know who won Alaska ’ s three electoral @ @ @ @ @ @ @ because the state doesn ’ t even begin to count absentee ballots until Nov. 10 .
In total , if we stick to just the states where we are expected to get quick projections and where we are confident we know what those projections will be , Biden would have 192 electoral votes at this point and Trump would have 119 .
So it ’ s very possible that we will go to bed not knowing who has won the presidential election .
Of course , it ’ s also possible that , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ than we expect them to , they will win enough states on election night to be formally declared the winner .
Even if not , though , states like Florida where we think we ’ ll get results quickly but where both candidates have a shot will be strong indicators of who is on track to win .
So even if we don ’ t have a winner on election night , that doesn ’ t mean we won ’ t have a pretty good idea .

Welcome to FiveThirtyEight’s Election Update for Saturday, October 31! According to the FiveThirtyEight forecast, Joe Biden has a 90 in 100 chance of becoming the 46th president of the United States, while President Trump still has a 10 in 100 chance of winning reelection. In the Senate, Democrats have a 78 in 100 chance of taking control, while the party is also a 98 in 100 favorite to keep the House.
[Live Updates: We’re Tracking The Vote And Voting Problems]
But this year, in addition to the burning question of “Who will win?” people are almost as eager to know, “When will we know the results?” To help answer that, FiveThirtyEight published a comprehensive guide to following the returns on election night, including when the polls close in each state and what time we might get semi-final results. So let’s walk through election night hour by hour, using our forecast as a guide to get a better understanding of just how many electoral votes might be accounted for, including how many Trump and Biden can each expect to win. (Spoiler: Unless one of them has a really good night, it’s unlikely that either will hit 270 electoral votes on election night.)
What are the chances we’ll know the next president on election night?
7 p.m. Eastern
Georgia is the race to watch at 7 p.m. FiveThirtyEight’s presidential forecast (as of 3:45 p.m. ET on Oct. 31) for states where the last polls close at 7 p.m. Eastern chance of winning Race Electoral Votes Biden Trump Vermont 3 99.4% 0.6% Virginia 13 99.0 1.0 Georgia 16 58.3 41.7 South Carolina 9 8.3 91.7 Indiana 11 5.0 95.0 Kentucky 8 1.4 98.6 Bolded rows indicate competitive races.
The earliest that TV networks, the Associated Press and other election adjudicators will be able to project the winner in any state is 7 p.m. Eastern, when the last polls close in six states. Of these, Indiana, Kentucky and South Carolina all have at least a 92 in 100 chance of going to Trump, so let’s assume those 28 electoral votes go in the Republican column (these states should report enough votes early that they can be quickly projected). But Vermont and Virginia are also at least 99 percent likely to go for Biden and should report results quickly, so he will probably quickly earn their combined 16 electoral votes, putting Trump at 28 and Biden at 16.
The one wild card in this first batch of closings is Georgia and who will win its 16 electoral votes. And because our forecast is expecting a very tight race there, it may take days before we have an answer to that question.
7:30 p.m. Eastern
North Carolina could be a bellwether at 7:30 p.m. FiveThirtyEight’s presidential forecast (as of 3:45 p.m. ET on Oct. 31) for states where the last polls close at 7:30 p.m. Eastern chance of winning Race Electoral Votes Biden Trump North Carolina 15 67.4% 32.6% Ohio 18 45.5 54.5 West Virginia 5 0.9 99.1 Bolded rows indicate competitive races.
Trump will almost certainly win West Virginia and its five electoral votes, and that should be apparent early in the night. However, North Carolina and Ohio are more up in the air, according to our forecast. If Biden is having a really good night, it’s conceivable that we’ll know who won in both states on election night because both count most of their votes relatively quickly; if that happens, Biden would gain 33 electoral votes from them combined.
However, if these states are as close as our forecast thinks they’ll be, they could remain unprojected for days as we wait for the last few mail-in ballots to arrive (both states accept mail-in ballots that are received after Election Day as long as they are properly postmarked). On the other hand, if Trump is having a good night, these states could be projected for him, and he could gain a total of 38 electoral votes from states that stop voting at 7:30 p.m.
8 p.m. Eastern
A flurry of results at 8 p.m., including vital swing states FiveThirtyEight’s presidential forecast (as of 3:45 p.m. ET on Oct. 31) for states where the last polls close at 8 p.m. Eastern chance of winning Race Electoral Votes Biden Trump Washington, D.C. 3 100.0% 0.0% Delaware 3 >99.9 <0.1 Maryland 10 >99.9 <0.1 Massachusetts 11 99.9 0.1 Rhode Island 4 99.9 0.1 Connecticut 7 99.9 0.1 Illinois 20 99.9 0.1 New Jersey 14 99.4 0.6 Maine 1st 1 97.4 2.6 Maine (statewide) 2 90.3 9.7 New Hampshire 4 88.7 11.3 Pennsylvania 20 85.8 14.2 Florida 29 65.3 34.7 Maine 2nd 1 55.6 44.4 Mississippi 6 8.8 91.3 Missouri 10 8.0 92.0 Tennessee 11 3.0 97.0 Alabama 9 1.7 98.3 Oklahoma 7 0.6 99.4 Bolded rows indicate competitive races. Maine splits its electoral votes, awarding two to the winner of the statewide race and one to the winner of each congressional district.
We might get a bonanza of results starting at 8 p.m. And several states where polls close at that time will probably be projected by ABC News and other media outlets pretty quickly: Alabama, Mississippi, Missouri, Oklahoma and Tennessee all have at least a 91 in 100 chance of voting for Trump, so it’s probably safe to say he will be quickly awarded their 43 combined electoral votes. Likewise, Delaware, Illinois, Maine, Maine’s 1st Congressional District, Massachusetts, New Hampshire and Rhode Island will probably be projected for Biden, given that he has at least an 89 in 100 chance of winning all those places. That’s worth 45 more electoral votes for the Democrat.
Connecticut, Maryland, New Jersey and Washington, D.C., will also stop voting at 8 p.m. Eastern and are overwhelmingly likely to vote for Biden. However, they are expected to count their votes more slowly, so it’s less certain when we’ll have an idea of who won here. Given just how blue these states are, though, let’s assume that we will know enough at some point on election night to project them. That’ll (eventually) be another 34 electoral votes for Biden.
Where it gets a little murkier is the races where both the vote count will be slow and the outcome of the race is in doubt. The two races in this category are worth a combined 21 electoral votes, and one of them is a strong bet to decide the final outcome. First, there’s Maine’s 2nd Congressional District, where we are currently forecasting that neither candidate will surpass 50 percent of the vote. And because Maine uses ranked-choice voting, that means we could have an automatic runoff on our hands, where the second-place (or third-place, etc.) votes of those who voted for minor-party candidates come into play. This process would not happen until later in the week, though. Second, Pennsylvania could also be without final results until well after election night, as they’re not allowed to start processing mail ballots until Tuesday morning, and mail ballots undergo a verification process that means they take longer to count than votes cast in person. Getting a grasp on the vote count in Pennsylvania could be particularly tricky, too, as Trump may win the election-night returns, while Biden is expected to lead the mail vote, which likely won’t be reported right away. All of this means there is a good chance we won’t know who won Pennsylvania until Wednesday at the earliest.
There’s also Florida in the 8 p.m. hour. And while we’re not sure who will win here either, the state is different from Maine and Pennsylvania in that we shouldn’t have to wait long to find out. Given how fast Florida counts votes, it would not be a surprise if we get enough results to know who won there shortly after 8 p.m. Eastern. If Biden wins it (and he has a 65 in 100 chance of doing so, according to our forecast), he would add 29 electoral votes to his ledger, for a total of 108 he could win from states whose last polls close at 8 p.m. Eastern. If, on the other hand, Trump wins Florida, he could net as many as 72 electoral votes this hour.
By 8 p.m. Eastern, states worth exactly 270 electoral votes (the number needed to win) will have stopped voting. However, we still won’t be able to declare an overall winner at this point, as it’s virtually impossible for either Biden or Trump to run the table in these first few rounds. That said, whoever wins Florida — one of the likeliest tipping-point states, according to our forecast — will tell us a lot about which way the race is heading. Case in point: If Trump loses Florida, our forecast believes he has less than a 1 percent chance of recovering to win the overall election.
8:30 p.m. Eastern
Only one state stops voting at 8:30 p.m. Eastern: Arkansas. With its greater than 99 in 100 chance of going red, expect its six electoral votes to be projected for Republicans very quickly.
9 p.m. Eastern
Texas and Arizona are the big prizes at 9 p.m. FiveThirtyEight’s presidential forecast (as of 3:45 p.m. ET on Oct. 31) for states where the last polls close at 9 p.m. Eastern chance of winning Race Electoral Votes Biden Trump New York 29 >99.9% <0.1% New Mexico 5 97.3 2.7 Colorado 9 96.8 3.2 Michigan 16 95.8 4.2 Minnesota 10 94.7 5.3 Wisconsin 10 94.0 6.0 Nebraska 2nd 1 77.9 22.1 Arizona 11 69.3 30.7 Texas 38 37.0 63.0 South Dakota 3 5.1 94.9 Nebraska 1st 1 4.1 95.9 Louisiana 8 3.1 96.9 Kansas 6 2.7 97.3 North Dakota 3 1.9 98.1 Nebraska (statewide) 2 0.6 99.4 Wyoming 3 0.2 99.8 Nebraska 3rd 1 <0.1 >99.9 Bolded rows indicate competitive races. Nebraska splits its electoral votes, awarding two to the winner of the statewide race and one to the winner of each congressional district.
Once again, there are several races where we should be able to declare a winner quickly because they’re simply not competitive. Kansas, Louisiana, Nebraska, Nebraska’s 1st Congressional District, Nebraska’s 3rd Congressional District, North Dakota, South Dakota and Wyoming will almost certainly add a combined 27 electoral votes to Trump’s total. And Colorado, Minnesota, New Mexico and New York should add 53 electoral votes to Biden’s total.
Michigan and Wisconsin are also likely to vote for Biden according to our forecast (96 in 100 and 94 in 100, respectively), but because of their swing-state status and slower vote-counting, they probably won’t be projected right away. Wisconsin is expected to take several hours to count all of its mail-in ballots, with final results from Milwaukee not expected to be known until between 4 and 7 a.m. Eastern on Wednesday. Meanwhile, the secretary of state of Michigan is warning not to expect actionable results until Friday. However, Biden stands to gain another 26 electoral votes once we have finalish results in these two states.
Then there are three races that will probably be too close to know who won on election night. Biden has a 78 in 100 chance of winning Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District, but that means Trump also has a 22 in 100 chance, so it may take several hours before a winner is declared. Texas is even closer: Trump has a 63 in 100 chance of victory, while Biden wins 37 out of 100 times, increasing the odds that late-arriving ballots on Wednesday will decide who actually gets the state’s electoral votes. Finally, Biden has only a small lead in Arizona, so the state may need to count every ballot before we know the winner there — which could take until Thursday or Friday.
Together, these three races are worth 50 electoral votes. So if Biden has a great night and wins them, he could gain 129 electoral votes from states whose polls close at 9 p.m. Eastern. If these states go for Trump, though, he could emerge with 77 more electoral votes.
10 p.m. Eastern
Tight races and slow counts in the 10 p.m. hour FiveThirtyEight’s presidential forecast (as of 3:45 p.m. ET on Oct. 31) for states where the last polls close at 10 p.m. Eastern chance of winning Race Electoral Votes Biden Trump Nevada 6 89.4% 10.6% Iowa 6 45.0 55.0 Montana 3 15.1 85.0 Utah 6 4.1 95.9 Bolded rows indicate competitive races.
There may not be any winners declared quickly this hour. Perhaps the most likely of these four states to be resolved early is Utah; despite a very slow vote-counting process, the state has a 96 in 100 chance of voting for Trump, so it seems possible that we might know who won here based on early vote returns. That would be worth an additional six electoral votes for Trump.
Similarly, Nevada could take a while to count all of its votes, but Biden has a smaller lead there than Trump does in Utah. So Biden might be able to add its six electoral votes to his column on election night, but it’s perhaps more likely that we won’t know who won on election night.
Meanwhile, it’s unlikely Iowa will get called either way on election night; our forecast says its six electoral votes are practically a toss-up, which could mean we won’t get final results here for several days. (In Iowa, absentee ballots can arrive as late as Nov. 9 and still count, and a razor-close race like the one we’re expecting come down to every last vote.)
Finally, Montana should get us a result relatively quickly, but there’s some question about what that result will be: While Trump is definitely favored, with an 85 in 100 chance, Biden has a real shot to win its three electoral votes as well (15 in 100).
All told, in a best-case scenario for Biden, these states could award 15 electoral votes to Biden and just six to Trump. Likewise, the best possible outcome for Trump from these states on election night could be winning 15 electoral votes (he could eventually win Nevada as well to make it a clean sweep, but it’s unlikely that would happen on election night).
11 p.m. Eastern
11 p.m. states are all deep red or deep blue FiveThirtyEight’s presidential forecast (as of 3:45 p.m. ET on Oct. 31) for states where the last polls close at 11 p.m. Eastern chance of winning Race Electoral Votes Biden Trump California 55 99.8% 0.2% Washington 12 99.2 0.8 Oregon 7 97.6 2.4 Idaho 4 0.5 99.5
We shouldn’t have to wait long for these states to be resolved. While California and Washington are both known for taking a long time to count their votes, they are also deep-blue states, so they’ll likely end up in Biden’s column almost immediately. Same with Oregon, a relatively fast-counting state where Biden has a 98 in 100 chance to win. In total, that means Biden is likely to pick up 74 electoral votes this hour. By contrast, Trump should pick up only four, from dark-red Idaho.
If Biden has had a great night so far, it’s possible that this would be when he clinches a majority of electoral votes. For example, if he wins all the quickly projected solid-blue states plus Georgia, North Carolina, Ohio, Florida and Arizona, he would be at 277 electoral votes.
Midnight and 1 a.m. Eastern
Alaska and Hawaii won’t tell us much FiveThirtyEight’s presidential forecast (as of 3:45 p.m. ET on Oct. 31) for states where the last polls close at midnight or 1 a.m. Eastern chance of winning Race Electoral Votes Biden Trump Hawaii 4 99.2% 0.8% Alaska 3 14.8 85.2 Bolded row indicates competitive race.
After 11 p.m. Eastern, there will only be two states left voting: Hawaii, where polls close at midnight Eastern, and Alaska, where the last polls close at 1 a.m. Eastern. Hawaii and its four electoral votes should quickly get added to Biden’s column, given that it counts its votes extremely fast and has a greater than 99 in 100 chance of going blue. However, we probably won’t know who won Alaska’s three electoral votes for at least a week, because the state doesn’t even begin to count absentee ballots until Nov. 10.
In total, if we stick to just the states where we are expected to get quick projections and where we are confident we know what those projections will be, Biden would have 192 electoral votes at this point and Trump would have 119. So it’s very possible that we will go to bed not knowing who has won the presidential election. Of course, it’s also possible that, if either Biden or Trump does better than we expect them to, they will win enough states on election night to be formally declared the winner.
Even if not, though, states like Florida where we think we’ll get results quickly but where both candidates have a shot will be strong indicators of who is on track to win. So even if we don’t have a winner on election night, that doesn’t mean we won’t have a pretty good idea.
What the deluge of final polls can tell us | FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast


fivethirthyeight--2020-11-01--We Can’t Believe We Have To Say This, But You Win An Election By Being Ahead When All The Votes Are

Many pollsters released their final polls of the 2020 election over the weekend .
In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight @ @ @ @ @ analyzes what the recent data tells us about the state of the race in its @ @ @

We Can’t Believe We Have To Say This, But You Win An Election By Being Ahead When All The Votes Are Counted
Many pollsters released their final polls of the 2020 election over the weekend. In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the crew analyzes what the recent data tells us about the state of the race in its final days.


fivethirthyeight--2020-11-01--Politics Podcast: What The Deluge Of Final Polls Can Tell Us

Many pollsters released their final polls of the 2020 election over the weekend , including a Des Moines Register poll that showed President Trump leading by 7 points in Iowa and a set of New York Times polls that showed Joe Biden ahead in four key swing states .
In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast , the crew analyzes what the recent data tells us about the state of the race in its final days .
They also discuss the Trump campaign ’ s efforts to undermine the legitimacy of a potential Biden win by suggesting that the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ should determine the winner , rather than waiting for all votes to be counted in the days or weeks after Nov. 3 .
You can listen to the episode by clicking the “ play ” button in the audio player above or by downloading it in iTunes , the ESPN App or your favorite podcast platform .
If you are new to podcasts , learn how to listen .
The FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast is recorded Mondays and Thursdays .
Help new listeners discover the show by leaving us a rating and review on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ or suggestion for “ good polling vs. bad polling ” ?
Get in touch by email , on Twitter or in the comments .

Many pollsters released their final polls of the 2020 election over the weekend, including a Des Moines Register poll that showed President Trump leading by 7 points in Iowa and a set of New York Times polls that showed Joe Biden ahead in four key swing states. In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the crew analyzes what the recent data tells us about the state of the race in its final days. They also discuss the Trump campaign’s efforts to undermine the legitimacy of a potential Biden win by suggesting that the partial ballot counts available on election night should determine the winner, rather than waiting for all votes to be counted in the days or weeks after Nov. 3.
You can listen to the episode by clicking the “play” button in the audio player above or by downloading it in iTunes, the ESPN App or your favorite podcast platform. If you are new to podcasts, learn how to listen.
The FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast is recorded Mondays and Thursdays. Help new listeners discover the show by leaving us a rating and review on iTunes. Have a comment, question or suggestion for “good polling vs. bad polling”? Get in touch by email, on Twitter or in the comments.


fivethirthyeight--2020-11-03--Politics Podcast: Final Reflections On The 2020 Campaign Before Election Day

Election Day is just a few hours away .
In the final preelection installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast , @ @ @ @ @ look at the data , reflects on the stories that defined the 2020 campaign and @ @ @ @ @ to follow on election night .
You can listen to the episode by clicking the @ @ @ @ @ the audio player above or by downloading it in iTunes , the ESPN App or @ @ @ @ @ If you are new to podcasts , learn how to listen .
The FiveThirtyEight Politics @ @ @ @ @ Thursdays .
Help new listeners discover the show by leaving us a rating and review @ @ @ @ @ comment , question or suggestion for “ good polling vs. bad polling ” ?
Get @ @ @ @ @ on Twitter or in the comments .

Election Day is just a few hours away. In the final preelection installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the crew takes a final look at the data, reflects on the stories that defined the 2020 campaign and offers a guide for what to follow on election night.
You can listen to the episode by clicking the “play” button in the audio player above or by downloading it in iTunes, the ESPN App or your favorite podcast platform. If you are new to podcasts, learn how to listen.
The FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast is recorded Mondays and Thursdays. Help new listeners discover the show by leaving us a rating and review on iTunes. Have a comment, question or suggestion for “good polling vs. bad polling”? Get in touch by email, on Twitter or in the comments.