fivethirthyeight--2020-09-04--Trump’s Law And Order Message Isn’t Resonating With Most Americans

Welcome to Pollapalooza , our weekly polling roundup .
As President Trump continues to push a “ law and order ” campaign message , we ’ ve been keeping an eye on the polls to see whether there ’ s any truth to the narrative that the recent unrest in Kenosha , Wisconsin , will help Trump politically .
So far , the answer is no .
Polls conducted this week and late last week suggest that public attitudes aren ’ t really breaking in Trump ’ s direction , even though the Republican National Convention focused a great deal @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of chaos and anarchy .
It ’ s true that Americans are less inclined to view as peaceful those protesting the police shooting of Jacob Blake in Kenosha compared with those who were protesting the police killing of George Floyd in Minneapolis in late May .
This week ’ s survey from The Economist/YouGov found that 41 percent of Americans considered the protesters themselves “ mostly peaceful , ” while 40 percent said they were “ mostly violent.
” This marked a sizable departure from early July , when the pollster last asked @ @ @ @ @ @ @ percent viewed the protesters as more peaceful , while only 31 percent viewed them as more violent .
And late last week , a Yahoo News/YouGov survey found that a majority of Americans — 54 percent — thought the protests had gone too far , compared with 31 percent who said that they hadn ’ t .
The most recent protests in Kenosha and elsewhere also don ’ t have quite the same level of support as the protests that followed Floyd ’ s death .
According to a new survey from Politico/Morning @ @ @ @ @ @ @ supported the latest protests , while 32 percent opposed them .
Back in early June , 57 percent of registered voters backed the Floyd protests , while just 23 percent opposed them .
However , the new Politico/Morning Consult survey still found a plurality backing the ongoing protests connected to Kenosha , and other polling echoes this finding : A new USA Today/Suffolk University poll found that 57 percent felt peaceful demonstrations should continue despite the violence that has cropped up in some cities , whereas 36 percent felt the protests should cease @ @ @ @ @ @ @ followed .
Given the underlying support for these protests , a major challenge remains for the president : Many Americans doubt his ability to fix the problems and reduce tensions that have precipitated the demonstrations .
According to a YouGov survey on Wednesday , 56 percent of adults said that the violence happening at protests would get worse if Trump were reelected this November .
Fifteen percent thought the violence would stay at similar levels , while 18 percent thought it would improve ( 11 percent said they didn ’ t know ) @ @ @ @ @ @ @ violence would get better if Joe Biden won , and just 23 percent thought it would worsen .
Somewhat similarly , 50 percent of likely voters told Quinnipiac University this week that they felt less safe with Trump as president , compared with 35 percent who said they felt safer .
These voters were more split on Biden , however : 42 percent said they ’ d feel safer with Biden in the White House , and 40 percent said they ’ d feel less safe .
Furthermore , other polling continued to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ prospective handling of race relations , public safety and unifying the country .
In this week ’ s Quinnipiac poll , 58 percent of likely voters said Biden would handle the issue of racial inequality better , compared with 36 percent who said Trump would fare better .
A new CNN/SSRS poll found a similar breakdown — 56 percent of registered voters said Biden , and 38 percent said Trump .
According to Politico/Morning Consult ’ s new survey , 51 percent said Biden would do a better job handling race relations versus @ @ @ @ @ @ @ percent said that Biden would better handle public safety versus 39 percent who said Trump would .
Even on an issue that might fold in better with Trump ’ s law-and-order messaging , 51 percent of registered voters told CNN/SSRS that Biden would do a better job dealing with the criminal justice system , compared with 44 percent who said Trump would .
CNN/SSRS also found that 56 percent thought Biden stood a better chance of unifying the country and not dividing it , while just 36 percent thought Trump stood a better @ @ @ @ @ @ @ what other events will unfold between now and November , but we can say that the violence in the wake of Blake ’ s shooting has seemed to affect public sentiment .
That effect isn ’ t huge , however , and the public hasn ’ t used that violence to impugn the protests against police violence and systemic racism as a whole .
Moreover , more Americans support Biden ’ s approach to these issues than Trump ’ s .
• A new HuffPost/YouGov survey suggests that Trump now dominates the Republican @ @ @ @ @ @ @ voted for Trump in 2016 , 49 percent considered themselves more Trump backers than GOP backers , while 19 percent said they were more supporters of the GOP than they were supporters of Trump .
Another 28 percent said they were supporters of both .
And if there were a conflict between Trump and congressional Republicans , 61 percent said they ’ d be more likely to support Trump , compared with just 13 percent who would be predisposed to back Republicans on Capitol Hill instead .
• Although votes this November will @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of increased mail-in or absentee voting , a poll from Axios/Ipsos found that a plurality of Americans — 36 percent — expected the 2020 presidential winner to be announced on Election Night .
Another 24 percent believed the winner would be called one to two days after the election , 14 percent a week after , 13 percent a few weeks later and 12 percent at least a month or more after .
However , the findings didn ’ t show sizable differences in expectations between Democrats and Republicans .
• Based on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ NBC News/Wall Street Journal found that voters who cast ballots for Libertarian Party nominee Gary Johnson or Green Party nominee Jill Stein in 2016 were more likely to back Biden than Trump this November .
Of these voters , 47 percent said they planned to support Biden , 20 percent said Trump and 33 percent were undecided or planned to vote for another candidate .
• According to polling from Franklin Templeton/Gallup , Americans overwhelmingly support another economic-support payment similar to those sent as part of the CARES Act earlier this year .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ send another one-time payment to all qualified adults , while only 17 percent disagreed ( 13 percent didn ’ t know ) .
Despite partisan wrangling in Congress over the issue , there was largely bipartisan agreement in the poll : 82 percent of Democrats and 64 percent of Republicans backed the one-time payment initiative .
• A new survey from Morning Consult found that 28 percent of Americans felt the Food and Drug Administration based its decisions concerning potential COVID-19 treatments and vaccines on political pressure , while 49 percent thought its @ @ @ @ @ @ @ percent didn ’ t know or had no opinion ) .
And half of respondents thought that Trump influenced FDA decisions “ a lot ” or “ somewhat.
” The agency has drawn criticism from health experts for misrepresenting the effectiveness of some COVID-19 treatments and for suggesting that some clinical trials could be skipped to fast-track a vaccine .
• An Ipsos survey of almost 20,000 adults in 27 countries on behalf of the World Economic Forum found that 74 percent would get a COVID-19 vaccine if it were available .
However @ @ @ @ @ @ @ have access to a vaccine before the end of the year .
Among U.S. respondents , 67 percent said they would get a vaccine if it were available , and 66 percent didn ’ t expect to have access to a vaccine by the end of 2020 .
• While Trump has tried to showcase a strong military as part of his political appeal , a new poll from the Military Times/Syracuse University found that his support was flagging among active-duty service members .
Half of those polled had an unfavorable view of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ him favorably , a reversal from his standing in 2016 , when he was a candidate for president .
And in the election this year , 41 percent said they would support Biden , compared with 37 percent who backed Trump .
• YouGov asked Americans about domestic terrorism by right-wing or left-wing extremists and found that 62 percent were very or somewhat concerned about right-wing extremists , while 54 percent said the same of the left wing .
Unsurprisingly , 79 percent of Democrats had concerns about right-wing violence , and 84 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ activity .
By 6 percentage points , independents were more worried about right-wing ( 59 percent ) than left-wing ( 53 percent ) extremists .
According to FiveThirtyEight ’ s presidential approval tracker , 43.4 percent of Americans approve of the job Trump is doing as president , while 52.3 percent disapprove ( a net approval rating of -8.9 points ) .
At this time last week , 42.2 percent approved and 54.3 percent disapproved ( a net approval rating of -12.1 points ) .
One month ago , Trump had an approval @ @ @ @ @ @ @ rating of 54.8 percent , for a net approval rating of -13.6 points .
In our average of polls of the generic congressional ballot , Democrats currently lead by 7.4 percentage points ( 48.7 percent to 41.3 percent ) .
A week ago , Democrats led Republicans by 7.3 points ( 48.3 percent to 41.0 percent ) .
At this time last month , voters preferred Democrats by 7.8 points ( 48.3 percent to 40.5 percent ) .
Make sure to check out FiveThirtyEight ’ s full presidential forecast ; you can also @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ve collected , including national polls , Florida polls , Michigan polls , Minnesota polls , North Carolina polls , Texas polls and … well … all the states , really .

Welcome to Pollapalooza, our weekly polling roundup.
Poll(s) of the week
As President Trump continues to push a “law and order” campaign message, we’ve been keeping an eye on the polls to see whether there’s any truth to the narrative that the recent unrest in Kenosha, Wisconsin, will help Trump politically. So far, the answer is no. Polls conducted this week and late last week suggest that public attitudes aren’t really breaking in Trump’s direction, even though the Republican National Convention focused a great deal on characterizing the Democrats as the party of chaos and anarchy.
It’s true that Americans are less inclined to view as peaceful those protesting the police shooting of Jacob Blake in Kenosha compared with those who were protesting the police killing of George Floyd in Minneapolis in late May. This week’s survey from The Economist/YouGov found that 41 percent of Americans considered the protesters themselves “mostly peaceful,” while 40 percent said they were “mostly violent.” This marked a sizable departure from early July, when the pollster last asked this question — back then, 54 percent viewed the protesters as more peaceful, while only 31 percent viewed them as more violent. And late last week, a Yahoo News/YouGov survey found that a majority of Americans — 54 percent — thought the protests had gone too far, compared with 31 percent who said that they hadn’t.
The most recent protests in Kenosha and elsewhere also don’t have quite the same level of support as the protests that followed Floyd’s death. According to a new survey from Politico/Morning Consult, 49 percent of registered voters supported the latest protests, while 32 percent opposed them. Back in early June, 57 percent of registered voters backed the Floyd protests, while just 23 percent opposed them. However, the new Politico/Morning Consult survey still found a plurality backing the ongoing protests connected to Kenosha, and other polling echoes this finding: A new USA Today/Suffolk University poll found that 57 percent felt peaceful demonstrations should continue despite the violence that has cropped up in some cities, whereas 36 percent felt the protests should cease because of the violence that has sometimes followed.
Given the underlying support for these protests, a major challenge remains for the president: Many Americans doubt his ability to fix the problems and reduce tensions that have precipitated the demonstrations. According to a YouGov survey on Wednesday, 56 percent of adults said that the violence happening at protests would get worse if Trump were reelected this November. Fifteen percent thought the violence would stay at similar levels, while 18 percent thought it would improve (11 percent said they didn’t know). Conversely, 43 percent thought protest violence would get better if Joe Biden won, and just 23 percent thought it would worsen. Somewhat similarly, 50 percent of likely voters told Quinnipiac University this week that they felt less safe with Trump as president, compared with 35 percent who said they felt safer. These voters were more split on Biden, however: 42 percent said they’d feel safer with Biden in the White House, and 40 percent said they’d feel less safe. Regarding Trump’s and Biden’s rhetoric on the protests, ABC News/Ipsos survey found that 55 percent of Americans thought Trump’s statements made things worse, while about half the country (49 percent) thought Biden’s statements didn’t have much effect either way.
Furthermore, other polling continued to show that voters preferred Biden’s prospective handling of race relations, public safety and unifying the country. In this week’s Quinnipiac poll, 58 percent of likely voters said Biden would handle the issue of racial inequality better, compared with 36 percent who said Trump would fare better. A new CNN/SSRS poll found a similar breakdown — 56 percent of registered voters said Biden, and 38 percent said Trump. According to Morning Consult’s new survey, 51 percent said Biden would do a better job handling race relations versus 32 percent who said Trump; 47 percent said that Biden would better handle public safety versus 39 percent who said Trump would. According to the ABC News/Ipsos poll, 56 percent and 55 percent of Americans thought Biden would do a better job keeping their families and the country safe, respectively, compared with 42 percent for Trump on both questions. Even on an issue that might fold in better with Trump’s law-and-order messaging, 51 percent of registered voters told CNN/SSRS that Biden would do a better job dealing with the criminal justice system, compared with 44 percent who said Trump would. CNN/SSRS also found that 56 percent thought Biden stood a better chance of unifying the country and not dividing it, while just 36 percent thought Trump stood a better chance. ABC News/Ipsos found an even larger split: 64 percent of Americans said Biden would do more to unite the country than divide it, while only 33 percent said the same of Trump.
We can’t know what other events will unfold between now and November, but we can say that the violence in the wake of Blake’s shooting has seemed to affect public sentiment. That effect isn’t huge, however, and the public hasn’t used that violence to impugn the protests against police violence and systemic racism as a whole. Moreover, more Americans support Biden’s approach to these issues than Trump’s.
Other bites
A new HuffPost/YouGov survey suggests that Trump now dominates the Republican Party he leads. Among Republicans who voted for Trump in 2016, 49 percent considered themselves more Trump backers than GOP backers, while 19 percent said they were more supporters of the GOP than they were supporters of Trump. Another 28 percent said they were supporters of both. And if there were a conflict between Trump and congressional Republicans, 61 percent said they’d be more likely to support Trump, compared with just 13 percent who would be predisposed to back Republicans on Capitol Hill instead.
Although votes this November will be counted more slowly than usual because of increased mail-in or absentee voting, a poll from Axios/Ipsos found that a plurality of Americans — 36 percent — expected the 2020 presidential winner to be announced on Election Night. Another 24 percent believed the winner would be called one to two days after the election, 14 percent a week after, 13 percent a few weeks later and 12 percent at least a month or more after. However, the findings didn’t show sizable differences in expectations between Democrats and Republicans.
Based on its polling so far this year, NBC News/Wall Street Journal found that voters who cast ballots for Libertarian Party nominee Gary Johnson or Green Party nominee Jill Stein in 2016 were more likely to back Biden than Trump this November. Of these voters, 47 percent said they planned to support Biden, 20 percent said Trump and 33 percent were undecided or planned to vote for another candidate.
According to polling from Franklin Templeton/Gallup, Americans overwhelmingly support another economic-support payment similar to those sent as part of the CARES Act earlier this year. Seventy percent said the federal government should send another one-time payment to all qualified adults, while only 17 percent disagreed (13 percent didn’t know). Despite partisan wrangling in Congress over the issue, there was largely bipartisan agreement in the poll: 82 percent of Democrats and 64 percent of Republicans backed the one-time payment initiative.
A new survey from Morning Consult found that 28 percent of Americans felt the Food and Drug Administration based its decisions concerning potential COVID-19 treatments and vaccines on political pressure, while 49 percent thought its choices were based on science (23 percent didn’t know or had no opinion). And half of respondents thought that Trump influenced FDA decisions “a lot” or “somewhat.” The agency has drawn criticism from health experts for misrepresenting the effectiveness of some COVID-19 treatments and for suggesting that some clinical trials could be skipped to fast-track a vaccine.
An Ipsos survey of almost 20,000 adults in 27 countries on behalf of the World Economic Forum found that 74 percent would get a COVID-19 vaccine if it were available. However, 59 percent did not expect to have access to a vaccine before the end of the year. Among U.S. respondents, 67 percent said they would get a vaccine if it were available, and 66 percent didn’t expect to have access to a vaccine by the end of 2020.
While Trump has tried to showcase a strong military as part of his political appeal, a new poll from the Military Times/Syracuse University found that his support was flagging among active-duty service members. Half of those polled had an unfavorable view of the president, while 38 percent viewed him favorably, a reversal from his standing in 2016, when he was a candidate for president. And in the election this year, 41 percent said they would support Biden, compared with 37 percent who backed Trump.
YouGov asked Americans about domestic terrorism by right-wing or left-wing extremists and found that 62 percent were very or somewhat concerned about right-wing extremists, while 54 percent said the same of the left wing. Unsurprisingly, 79 percent of Democrats had concerns about right-wing violence, and 84 percent of Republicans worried about violent left-wing activity. By 6 percentage points, independents were more worried about right-wing (59 percent) than left-wing (53 percent) extremists.
Trump approval
According to FiveThirtyEight’s presidential approval tracker, 43.4 percent of Americans approve of the job Trump is doing as president, while 52.3 percent disapprove (a net approval rating of -8.9 points). At this time last week, 42.2 percent approved and 54.3 percent disapproved (a net approval rating of -12.1 points). One month ago, Trump had an approval rating of 41.2 percent and a disapproval rating of 54.8 percent, for a net approval rating of -13.6 points.
Generic ballot
In our average of polls of the generic congressional ballot, Democrats currently lead by 7.4 percentage points (48.7 percent to 41.3 percent). A week ago, Democrats led Republicans by 7.3 points (48.3 percent to 41.0 percent). At this time last month, voters preferred Democrats by 7.8 points (48.3 percent to 40.5 percent).
Make sure to check out FiveThirtyEight’s full presidential forecast; you can also see all the 2020 polls we’ve collected, including national polls, Florida polls, Michigan polls, Minnesota polls, North Carolina polls, Texas polls and … well … all the states, really.
UPDATE (September 4, 2020, 9:52 a.m.): This article was updated to include an ABC News/Ipsos poll released on Friday.


fivethirthyeight--2020-09-04--Giannis Is Doing More Work In Less Time

Giannis Is Doing More Work In Less Time

Milwaukee Bucks head coach Mike Budenholzer is under fire for how much he has played his star , Giannis Antetokounmpo , throughout the postseason .
Though the Bucks beat the Orlando Magic 4-1 in the first round of the NBA playoffs , their 0-2 start in their conference semifinals matchup against the Miami Heat has the questions and criticisms piling up .
Antetokounmpo ’ s 30.4 minutes per game during the regular season were his fewest since his rookie year .
And his 33 minutes per game this postseason are less than that of many of his superstar counterparts : @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Harden has played 36.4 , and Jimmy Butler is at 34.5 .
But while fans and critics alike might want more playing time from the young Milwaukee star during crunch time , there should be no debate about Budenholzer ’ s ability to maximize Giannis ’ s time spent on the court .
Although the reigning MVP has played fewer minutes this year , he had arguably his best offensive season to date .
In addition to setting personal bests as a playmaker , Antetokounmpo posted career highs in points ( 29.5 ) @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
And the four-time All-Star ’ s 110.5 offensive rating is a postseason career high .
He also set playoff career highs in points per game , made shots per game and field-goal percentage .
How has he gotten such numbers in more limited minutes ?
His usage rate has been through the roof .
The Bucks star had a hand in approximately 36.3 percent of all his team ’ s plays when he was on the floor during the regular season , which led all players , and he currently leads all @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
The seven-year veteran also ranks in the top 15 in pace among remaining players in the playoffs , coming in second behind Russell Westbrook among players averaging 15 or more minutes per game with a usage rate of 25 percent or higher .
This compounds the impact of his high usage rate because he ’ s getting more possessions to work with on the court than a typical player does .
All this helps explain why Antetokounmpo ’ s 83.0 touches per game also rank fourth among remaining players in the postseason @ @ @ @ @ @ @ instance , despite the Rockets star ’ s superior minutes per game .
Giannis may be on the court fewer minutes , but he ’ s doing more work in less time .
With so much being asked of him offensively , it would be no surprise for the 6-foot-11 forward to have taken on less responsibility on the defensive end .
But that wasn ’ t the case during the regular season – in fact , Budenholzer asked Giannis to do more .
His 97.4 defensive rating was the best in the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ minutes per game ; his playoff defensive rating , 104.2 , ranks third among all players with a usage rate of 30 or higher .
The Bucks had the top defensive regular-season rating in the league for the second year in a row , and Antetokounmpo earned the Defensive Player of Year award .
“ He impacts the game with his blocked shots , his rebounding , his ability to guard all five positions , ( and ) his chase-down blocks , ” Budenholzer said during Giannis ’ s award presentation .
Antetokounmpo @ @ @ @ @ @ @ rebounds and overall rebounds , so his lack of minutes relative to other stars has not hampered his total production on defense , either .
Again , he ’ s just doing more in less time .
A lot has been asked of Antetokounmpo , both in the regular season and in the playoffs .
If he can maximize his time on the court , it might not matter as much how much time he spends on it .
Though if the Bucks don ’ t start winning games in their second-round series @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Coach of the Year may never hear the end of it .

Milwaukee Bucks head coach Mike Budenholzer is under fire for how much he has played his star, Giannis Antetokounmpo, throughout the postseason. Though the Bucks beat the Orlando Magic 4-1 in the first round of the NBA playoffs, their 0-2 start in their conference semifinals matchup against the Miami Heat has the questions and criticisms piling up.
Antetokounmpo’s 30.4 minutes per game during the regular season were his fewest since his rookie year. And his 33 minutes per game this postseason are less than that of many of his superstar counterparts: Kawhi Leonard has averaged 38.1, James Harden has played 36.4, and Jimmy Butler is at 34.5. But while fans and critics alike might want more playing time from the young Milwaukee star during crunch time, there should be no debate about Budenholzer’s ability to maximize Giannis’s time spent on the court.
Although the reigning MVP has played fewer minutes this year, he had arguably his best offensive season to date. In addition to setting personal bests as a playmaker, Antetokounmpo posted career highs in points (29.5) and rebounds (13.6) per game. And the four-time All-Star’s 110.5 offensive rating is a postseason career high. He also set playoff career highs in points per game, made shots per game and field-goal percentage.
How has he gotten such numbers in more limited minutes? His usage rate has been through the roof. The Bucks star had a hand in approximately 36.3 percent of all his team’s plays when he was on the floor during the regular season, which led all players, and he currently leads all remaining players in usage in the postseason.
The seven-year veteran also ranks in the top 15 in pace among remaining players in the playoffs, coming in second behind Russell Westbrook among players averaging 15 or more minutes per game with a usage rate of 25 percent or higher. This compounds the impact of his high usage rate because he’s getting more possessions to work with on the court than a typical player does. All this helps explain why Antetokounmpo’s 83.0 touches per game also rank fourth among remaining players in the postseason — not far behind Harden, for instance, despite the Rockets star’s superior minutes per game. Giannis may be on the court fewer minutes, but he’s doing more work in less time.
With so much being asked of him offensively, it would be no surprise for the 6-foot-11 forward to have taken on less responsibility on the defensive end. But that wasn’t the case during the regular season – in fact, Budenholzer asked Giannis to do more. His 97.4 defensive rating was the best in the league among players averaging 25 or more minutes per game; his playoff defensive rating, 104.2, ranks third among all players with a usage rate of 30 or higher. The Bucks had the top defensive regular-season rating in the league for the second year in a row, and Antetokounmpo earned the Defensive Player of Year award.
“He impacts the game with his blocked shots, his rebounding, his ability to guard all five positions, (and) his chase-down blocks,” Budenholzer said during Giannis’s award presentation.
Antetokounmpo currently leads the playoffs in total defensive rebounds and overall rebounds, so his lack of minutes relative to other stars has not hampered his total production on defense, either. Again, he’s just doing more in less time.
A lot has been asked of Antetokounmpo, both in the regular season and in the playoffs. If he can maximize his time on the court, it might not matter as much how much time he spends on it. Though if the Bucks don’t start winning games in their second-round series, the team’s two-time NBA Coach of the Year may never hear the end of it.
Check out our latest NBA predictions.


fivethirthyeight--2020-09-04--The Easy Part Of The Economic Recovery Might Be Over

Is the economy finally starting to rebound ?
Based on the headline numbers from the August jobs report , things sure look that way .
The report shows that the economy added 1.4 million jobs in August , and the unemployment rate fell below 10 percent for the first time since March , to 8.4 percent — down 1.8 percentage points since July .
Good news , right ?
Well , when it comes to jobs reports in this pandemic , looks can be deceiving .
The economy is certainly improving : The August report shows that the labor force @ @ @ @ @ @ @ more furloughed workers returned to their jobs .
But there are a bunch of clues in this month ’ s report that the growth we ’ re seeing now isn ’ t as robust as it looks , and that it probably isn ’ t sustainable without a dramatic change in public health conditions : • A significant chunk of the jobs gained in August were added thanks to a once-in-a-decade phenomenon that has nothing to do with the current recession — a slew of temporary hiring for the U.S. Census .
• @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and the industries that were hit hardest by the pandemic — like leisure and hospitality — appear to be stalling out well below their pre-pandemic peak .
• Getting people back to work will likely be harder and harder in the coming months , because a growing share of unemployed people have lost their jobs permanently .
• The recovery is arriving faster for some groups than others — which means that workers of color , in particular , are still suffering much higher levels of unemployment than white workers .
Trump can @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s positive headlines A lot of credit for this month ’ s better-than-expected jobs numbers should go to the U.S. Census Bureau .
Every 10 years , the bureau goes on a hiring spree , bringing hundreds of thousands of workers onto its payroll to fan out across the country for a few months , knocking on the doors of people who haven ’ t returned their census forms to ensure the count is accurate .
In a normal year , this sudden spate of hiring would be extremely noticeable — several hundred @ @ @ @ @ @ @ month ’ s total number of jobs gained by an order of magnitude .
But the COVID-19 recession has thrown our frame of reference out of whack .
Because we lost tens of millions of jobs in March and April , it doesn ’ t seem weird that we ’ d be gaining well over a million jobs in a single month these days .
So the addition of 238,000 Census jobs in August wasn ’ t as obvious as it ordinarily would be ; instead , it ’ s quietly padding the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ fully 17 percent of total nonfarm jobs added in August .
And more importantly , this uptick is extremely temporary .
Most Census workers will be laid off when canvassing for the count ends later this month .
The private sector is less of a success story It ’ s also important to remember that we ’ re still very , very deep in the hole we fell into in April , and that job growth in the private sector is slowing .
While government employment rose by 1.6 percent from July to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ part by Census Bureau hiring — private-sector employment was up only 0.9 percent over the same period .
After a similar 1.3 percent gain in July , this may signal that private hiring has hit something of a plateau .
That ’ s corroborated by data from job-search websites such as Indeed , which also shows a slowing trend of job listings after steady gains earlier in the summer .
The job gains are slowing down fastest in industries that were hardest hit by the pandemic , which means it could be especially @ @ @ @ @ @ @ back to their pre-pandemic levels .
For instance , the leisure and hospitality sector lost a staggering 8.3 million jobs in March and April , but after quick gains in May and June , the industry only added 621,000 jobs in July and 174,000 in August , leaving it 4.1 million shy of its pre-pandemic ( February 2020 ) baseline : And that ’ s true of essentially every major industry in America through late summer .
Every economic supersector except mining and logging saw job gains in August , and all but @ @ @ @ @ @ @ July as well .
Yet every one of them also employs fewer people now than it did in February .
The closest to normal is utilities , which is down 1.3 percent from before the pandemic .
But the median supersector is down 6 percent , with some industries ( like leisure and hospitality ) down as much as 25 percent from pre-pandemic levels .
Nick Bunker , the director of economic research for North America at the Indeed Hiring Lab , a research institute connected to the job-search site Indeed , told @ @ @ @ @ @ @ hospitality is especially concerning , because it could indicate that as long as it ’ s operating under pandemic conditions , the beleaguered industry could be running out of new jobs to add .
“ For me , it ’ s about figuring out when we ’ ve moved out of the rebound stage into what looks more like a typical recovery from a recession , where there are steady gains but not a huge surge in employment , ” he said .
This month ’ s job numbers indicate that we could @ @ @ @ @ @ @ quite alarming given how far below the pre-pandemic peak those industries still are .
One thing economists feared earlier in the summer is coming to pass : The number of people who had permanently lost their jobs rose last month , even as lots of temporarily unemployed people were returning to work .
According to the BLS , 9.2 million workers had been on temporary layoff in July , which was similar to the number from June ( 10.6 million ) .
But only 6.2 million fell into that category in August , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ workers went back to work .
That ’ s the good news .
The bad news is that the number of people who had been permanently laid off did not see the same decline — that group actually grew from 2.9 million workers in July to 3.4 million in August .
On the one hand , 64 percent of people who lost their jobs were categorized as temporary layoffs , which is down dramatically from earlier in the pandemic ( it was 90 percent in April ) and is more in line with @ @ @ @ @ @ @ share in February , for instance , was just 39 percent .
But with unemployment still quite high by historical standards , this also means it will be increasingly hard for the people who are now permanently unemployed to find jobs .
“ We have a slow-moving unemployment crisis coming , ” said Martha Gimbel , an economist with Schmidt Futures .
“ We saw this happen in the last recession — it took many people who lost jobs an incredibly long time to come back from that.
” The share of workers @ @ @ @ @ @ @ In August , 17 percent of people with jobs worked part-time .
In a way , this , too , is more in line with a “ normal ” economy ; the share in February was 17.5 percent .
But the reason so many more workers are taking part-time hours speaks to one of the biggest economic issues of the pandemic : child care .
When the BLS lists workers by full- or part-time status , they also track whether that status is due to economic reasons — like a slowdown in that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ or noneconomic reasons .
Right now , 71 percent of all non-agricultural part-time workers fit the latter category , and one of the biggest noneconomic reasons that people look for or accept part-time work is child care obligations .
We know that , even under normal circumstances , about one-third of women who have young children and work part-time do it because of caretaking duties .
With in-person learning at school still curtailed in many areas , it makes sense that this would factor into an even greater rise in part-time work , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the recovery continues to arrive more quickly for some people than for others .
This month , the unemployment rate for white workers fell to 7.3 percent — down 1.9 points from July .
But workers of color continue to struggle with much higher levels of unemployment .
The unemployment rate was 13 percent for Black workers , 10.7 percent of Asian workers , and 10.5 percent for Hispanic workers .
The gap between Black and white workers is especially concerning .
It ’ s unfortunately normal for the Black unemployment rate to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for white workers — that was true earlier this year , when times were good , and it was also true during the Great Recession .
Since the current recession started , the black-white unemployment gap has actually been smaller than it was during the Great Recession , when Black unemployment peaked at a stunning 16.8 percent in March 2010 , while white unemployment was much lower at 8.9 percent .
But that ’ s in part because Black workers — particularly Black women — tend to be overrepresented in jobs that have @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , which meant they may have been insulated from some of the dramatic job losses in April and May .
As workers start to be rehired , though , both Bunker and Gimbel told us that they expect white workers to be called back more quickly , thanks to employers ’ intentional and unintentional racial bias .
“ Black workers tend to be the first to be laid off and the last to be hired , ” Bunker said .
“ Unfortunately this is a factor you see in lots of recoveries — @ @ @ @ @ @ @ market to get the Black unemployment rate down to levels that would be acceptable for other groups.
” For instance , this month , the unemployment rate for white women fell by 2.3 points , one of the largest drops of any demographic group .
But for Black women , the decline was much narrower , only 1.3 points .
That disparity is troubling on a number of levels .
It ’ s telling , first of all , that we ’ ve grown so accustomed to a high unemployment rate among Black @ @ @ @ @ @ @ t all that surprising .
And moral considerations aside , Gimbel said , unevenly distributed job gains can turn into a drag on the economy .
Race-based job discrimination , whether it ’ s deliberate or not , means that the person who gets any given job may not be the most qualified person for that position .
“ Then you have to remember that those people are also consumers , ” Gimbel said .
“ They spend money .
So if they don ’ t have that money to spend , that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ this is a reminder that as the recovery continues , there will be a lot that the headline jobs numbers can ’ t tell us about how the recession is being experienced by different groups of people .
Some industries are rebounding faster than others ; some people are much likelier to benefit from the rallying economy than others .
And if the recovery is indeed starting to slow down , those inequalities could be with us for a very long time .

Is the economy finally starting to rebound? Based on the headline numbers from the August jobs report, things sure look that way. The report shows that the economy added 1.4 million jobs in August, and the unemployment rate fell below 10 percent for the first time since March, to 8.4 percent — down 1.8 percentage points since July.
Good news, right? Well, when it comes to jobs reports in this pandemic, looks can be deceiving. The economy is certainly improving: The August report shows that the labor force participation rate increased a bit and millions more furloughed workers returned to their jobs.
But there are a bunch of clues in this month’s report that the growth we’re seeing now isn’t as robust as it looks, and that it probably isn’t sustainable without a dramatic change in public health conditions:
A significant chunk of the jobs gained in August were added thanks to a once-in-a-decade phenomenon that has nothing to do with the current recession — a slew of temporary hiring for the U.S. Census.
Private-sector job growth is slowing overall, and the industries that were hit hardest by the pandemic — like leisure and hospitality — appear to be stalling out well below their pre-pandemic peak.
Getting people back to work will likely be harder and harder in the coming months, because a growing share of unemployed people have lost their jobs permanently.
The recovery is arriving faster for some groups than others — which means that workers of color, in particular, are still suffering much higher levels of unemployment than white workers.
Trump can thank the census for this month’s positive headlines
A lot of credit for this month’s better-than-expected jobs numbers should go to the U.S. Census Bureau. Every 10 years, the bureau goes on a hiring spree, bringing hundreds of thousands of workers onto its payroll to fan out across the country for a few months, knocking on the doors of people who haven’t returned their census forms to ensure the count is accurate. In a normal year, this sudden spate of hiring would be extremely noticeable — several hundred thousand new government jobs could increase that month’s total number of jobs gained by an order of magnitude.
But the COVID-19 recession has thrown our frame of reference out of whack. Because we lost tens of millions of jobs in March and April, it doesn’t seem weird that we’d be gaining well over a million jobs in a single month these days. So the addition of 238,000 Census jobs in August wasn’t as obvious as it ordinarily would be; instead, it’s quietly padding the total. But Census hires accounted for fully 17 percent of total nonfarm jobs added in August. And more importantly, this uptick is extremely temporary. Most Census workers will be laid off when canvassing for the count ends later this month.
The private sector is less of a success story
It’s also important to remember that we’re still very, very deep in the hole we fell into in April, and that job growth in the private sector is slowing. While government employment rose by 1.6 percent from July to August — again, fueled in large part by Census Bureau hiring — private-sector employment was up only 0.9 percent over the same period. After a similar 1.3 percent gain in July, this may signal that private hiring has hit something of a plateau. That’s corroborated by data from job-search websites such as Indeed, which also shows a slowing trend of job listings after steady gains earlier in the summer.
The job gains are slowing down fastest in industries that were hardest hit by the pandemic, which means it could be especially difficult for those industries to make it back to their pre-pandemic levels. For instance, the leisure and hospitality sector lost a staggering 8.3 million jobs in March and April, but after quick gains in May and June, the industry only added 621,000 jobs in July and 174,000 in August, leaving it 4.1 million shy of its pre-pandemic (February 2020) baseline:
And that’s true of essentially every major industry in America through late summer. Every economic supersector except mining and logging saw job gains in August, and all but a few made gains in June and July as well. Yet every one of them also employs fewer people now than it did in February. The closest to normal is utilities, which is down 1.3 percent from before the pandemic. But the median supersector is down 6 percent, with some industries (like leisure and hospitality) down as much as 25 percent from pre-pandemic levels.
Nick Bunker, the director of economic research for North America at the Indeed Hiring Lab, a research institute connected to the job-search site Indeed, told us that the slowdown in leisure and hospitality is especially concerning, because it could indicate that as long as it’s operating under pandemic conditions, the beleaguered industry could be running out of new jobs to add.
“For me, it’s about figuring out when we’ve moved out of the rebound stage into what looks more like a typical recovery from a recession, where there are steady gains but not a huge surge in employment,” he said. This month’s job numbers indicate that we could be reaching that point, which is quite alarming given how far below the pre-pandemic peak those industries still are.
A permanent problem
One thing economists feared earlier in the summer is coming to pass: The number of people who had permanently lost their jobs rose last month, even as lots of temporarily unemployed people were returning to work. According to the BLS, 9.2 million workers had been on temporary layoff in July, which was similar to the number from June (10.6 million). But only 6.2 million fell into that category in August, meaning 3.1 million furloughed or otherwise laid-off workers went back to work. That’s the good news. The bad news is that the number of people who had been permanently laid off did not see the same decline — that group actually grew from 2.9 million workers in July to 3.4 million in August.
On the one hand, 64 percent of people who lost their jobs were categorized as temporary layoffs, which is down dramatically from earlier in the pandemic (it was 90 percent in April) and is more in line with numbers from before the crisis; the share in February, for instance, was just 39 percent. But with unemployment still quite high by historical standards, this also means it will be increasingly hard for the people who are now permanently unemployed to find jobs. “We have a slow-moving unemployment crisis coming,” said Martha Gimbel, an economist with Schmidt Futures. “We saw this happen in the last recession — it took many people who lost jobs an incredibly long time to come back from that.”
The share of workers in part-time jobs is also increasing: In August, 17 percent of people with jobs worked part-time. In a way, this, too, is more in line with a “normal” economy; the share in February was 17.5 percent. But the reason so many more workers are taking part-time hours speaks to one of the biggest economic issues of the pandemic: child care. When the BLS lists workers by full- or part-time status, they also track whether that status is due to economic reasons — like a slowdown in that industry or a slack job market — or noneconomic reasons. Right now, 71 percent of all non-agricultural part-time workers fit the latter category, and one of the biggest noneconomic reasons that people look for or accept part-time work is child care obligations. We know that, even under normal circumstances, about one-third of women who have young children and work part-time do it because of caretaking duties. With in-person learning at school still curtailed in many areas, it makes sense that this would factor into an even greater rise in part-time work, simply out of necessity.
The recovery isn’t helping everyone equally
Meanwhile, the recovery continues to arrive more quickly for some people than for others. This month, the unemployment rate for white workers fell to 7.3 percent — down 1.9 points from July. But workers of color continue to struggle with much higher levels of unemployment. The unemployment rate was 13 percent for Black workers, 10.7 percent of Asian workers, and 10.5 percent for Hispanic workers.
The gap between Black and white workers is especially concerning. It’s unfortunately normal for the Black unemployment rate to be much higher than the unemployment rate for white workers — that was true earlier this year, when times were good, and it was also true during the Great Recession.
Since the current recession started, the black-white unemployment gap has actually been smaller than it was during the Great Recession, when Black unemployment peaked at a stunning 16.8 percent in March 2010, while white unemployment was much lower at 8.9 percent. But that’s in part because Black workers — particularly Black women — tend to be overrepresented in jobs that have been deemed essential during the COVID-19 pandemic, which meant they may have been insulated from some of the dramatic job losses in April and May.
As workers start to be rehired, though, both Bunker and Gimbel told us that they expect white workers to be called back more quickly, thanks to employers’ intentional and unintentional racial bias. “Black workers tend to be the first to be laid off and the last to be hired,” Bunker said. “Unfortunately this is a factor you see in lots of recoveries — it takes a very strong labor market market to get the Black unemployment rate down to levels that would be acceptable for other groups.”
For instance, this month, the unemployment rate for white women fell by 2.3 points, one of the largest drops of any demographic group. But for Black women, the decline was much narrower, only 1.3 points.
That disparity is troubling on a number of levels. It’s telling, first of all, that we’ve grown so accustomed to a high unemployment rate among Black workers that the current disparity isn’t all that surprising. And moral considerations aside, Gimbel said, unevenly distributed job gains can turn into a drag on the economy. Race-based job discrimination, whether it’s deliberate or not, means that the person who gets any given job may not be the most qualified person for that position. “Then you have to remember that those people are also consumers,” Gimbel said. “They spend money. So if they don’t have that money to spend, that holds us back too.”
All of this is a reminder that as the recovery continues, there will be a lot that the headline jobs numbers can’t tell us about how the recession is being experienced by different groups of people. Some industries are rebounding faster than others; some people are much likelier to benefit from the rallying economy than others. And if the recovery is indeed starting to slow down, those inequalities could be with us for a very long time.


fivethirthyeight--2020-09-04--The U.S. Doesn’t Want To Join A Global Effort To Stop A Global Pandemic

The U.S. doesn ’ t want to participate in the international effort to find and distribute a vaccine for COVID-19 @ @ @ @ @ FiveThirtyEight ’ s coronavirus podcast , PODCAST-19 , we talk with FiveThirtyEight senior science writer @ @ @ @ @ decision might mean for the country and the world .
Don ’ t want to @ @ @ @ @ , FiveThirtyEight ’ s weekly look at what we know — and what we know @ @ @ @ @ — about COVID-19 ?
Subscribe on your favorite podcasting app .
For example , here @ @ @ @ @ it on Apple Podcasts and Spotify .

The U.S. doesn’t want to participate in the international effort to find and distribute a vaccine for COVID-19. On this episode of FiveThirtyEight’s coronavirus podcast, PODCAST-19, we talk with FiveThirtyEight senior science writer Maggie Koerth about what that decision might mean for the country and the world.
Don’t want to miss an episode of PODCAST-19, FiveThirtyEight’s weekly look at what we know — and what we know we don’t know — about COVID-19? Subscribe on your favorite podcasting app. For example, here’s where to do it on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.


fivethirthyeight--2020-09-04--Trump Has An Electoral College Advantage Again This Cycle

In this episode of Model Talk , Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss how our 2020 presidential forecast has changed @ @ @ @ @ listener questions .

Trump Has An Electoral College Advantage Again This Cycle
In this episode of Model Talk, Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss how our 2020 presidential forecast has changed — and they answer some listener questions.


fivethirthyeight--2020-09-04--Politics Podcast: If Biden Wins The Popular Vote By 2-3 Points, He Isn’t Favored To Win The Electora

Politics Podcast: If Biden Wins The Popular Vote By 2-3 Points, He Isn’t Favored To Win The Electoral College

As he had in 2016 , it appears that President Trump has an advantage in the Electoral College , setting @ @ @ @ @ reelection while again losing the popular vote .
On this installment of Model Talk on @ @ @ @ @ Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss how big Trump ’ s advantage in the Electoral @ @ @ @ @ questions from listeners .
You can listen to the episode by clicking the “ play @ @ @ @ @ player above or by downloading it in iTunes , the ESPN App or your favorite @ @ @ @ @ are new to podcasts , learn how to listen .
The FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast is @ @ @ @ @ Help new listeners discover the show by leaving us a rating and review on iTunes @ @ @ @ @ question or suggestion for “ good polling vs. bad polling ” ?
Get in touch @ @ @ @ @ or in the comments .

As he had in 2016, it appears that President Trump has an advantage in the Electoral College, setting him up to potentially win reelection while again losing the popular vote. On this installment of Model Talk on the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss how big Trump’s advantage in the Electoral College might be and answer questions from listeners.
You can listen to the episode by clicking the “play” button in the audio player above or by downloading it in iTunes, the ESPN App or your favorite podcast platform. If you are new to podcasts, learn how to listen.
The FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast is recorded Mondays and Thursdays. Help new listeners discover the show by leaving us a rating and review on iTunes. Have a comment, question or suggestion for “good polling vs. bad polling”? Get in touch by email, on Twitter or in the comments.


fivethirthyeight--2020-09-04--Smart Watches Could Do More For Wheelchair Users

Smart watches and fitness trackers have transformed the world of exercise , spawning a generation of active tech users .
The Apple Watch , FitBit and Strava have prided themselves on getting the world moving .
But one group of people has been frequently left out of this fitness revolution : wheelchair users .
Steps , after all , are not easily comparable to pushes of a wheelchair .
And yet , those in wheelchairs need fitness tools just as much as everyone else , if not more than those who don ’ t identify with a disability .
A @ @ @ @ @ @ @ National Center on Birth Defects and Developmental Disabilities and the National Center for Chronic Disease Prevention and Health Promotion found a difference of 21 percentage points in reported activity levels between those with disabilities and those without .
Smart watch and fitness tracking companies have made efforts toward inclusion .
The Apple Watch began supporting wheelchair users in 2016 , and Strava also debuted wheelchair and handbike activity modes around that time .
( Strava put out an update on Aug. 12 that made it possible to set designated wheelchair , handcycle , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ them as running or cycling . )
Disability news and culture sites like The Mighty heralded the Apple Watch release as “ good news ” for both wheelchair athletes and the regular wheelchair user , but the apps and devices still aren ’ t serving wheelchair users as well as they could .
Research done by researchers at San Diego State University in 2017 found that the Apple Watch often did not have full accuracy when it came to push count .
In their words , “ [ The ] Apple Watch is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , treadmill ) pushing and arm ergometry but not low-frequency pushing or overground tasks.
” For some , this may not seem like a large problem .
After all , there is no perfect match within an activity data set .
But the device ’ s accuracy could be much more important to , for instance , a national team athlete than a wheelchair user for whom elite movement is not an option .
What happens next to the data coming out of these apps and devices is also crucial , since researchers @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
If the data on wheelchair users isn ’ t accurate , whatever recommendations come out of those studies might not help disabled users — and could even make fitness harder for them if they set unrealistic expectations .
While this lack of accuracy is a problem , the individual data collected by users is still important .
It can be used to show tangible improvement for users and to motivate a population that can find it hard to exercise regularly .
William Miller , a professor in the Department of Occupational Science @ @ @ @ @ @ @ British Columbia , brought this forward in a call for participants for an as of yet unpublished research project in the same vein .
“ Technology that is reliable and accurate has been shown to be able to positively motivate users to increase physical activity , ” he wrote .
“ This knowledge is particularly important for a manual wheelchair user population due to decreased physical activity levels within this population.
” Take the Apple Watch , for example .
A team of researchers from Finland and Australia found in 2019 that its @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , self-monitoring purposes and for research entailing group-level analyses , but less acceptable where accurate push-count measures for an individual are required.
” They did find that this error , averaging out to 13.5 percent , was comparable to the errors found in similar studies that matched visually monitored step counts with pedometer results in non-wheelchair users .
But more accurate push counts might be needed in an elite sporting environment , for example , or when push count or distance is being used as a key health indicator by a medical professional @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to compare their statistics to their non-wheelchair-using friends .
Apple sent a review unit for this story as I tried to determine if the research that I ’ d found was missing any aspects of my experience .
Apple developed features that mirrored the step count available to able-bodied users , including the reminder to get up and move , and to create wheelchair-accessible workout modes .
The integration asking me to go for a roll was a welcome addition .
I tested the Apple Watch by wheeling down a carpeted hallway at @ @ @ @ @ @ @ study observed that the watch tended to undercount wheelchair pushes , I found that the watch tended to overestimate my number of pushes slightly .
This could be because of many factors , as the researchers from Finland and Australia noted , including the speed at which the push was taken , a variable that they recommended go under further investigation .
When you initially set up the app on your phone – for me that ’ s an iPhone XR – it asks you whether you will be using steps or pushes @ @ @ @ @ @ @ no easy way to switch between wheelchair and walking modes .
As an ambulatory wheelchair user , I stand up and sit down regularly throughout the day .
And I ’ m not alone : According to research published in 2014 , approximately 6.8 percent of Americans identified as having “ ambulatory difficulties.
” The separation between walking and wheeling means that users like me are unlikely to get an accurate reading when the movement of an entire day is taken into account .
The watch is clear in its commitment to accessibility @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for voice recording , augmentative communication ( AAC ) and keyboard typing from the watch are included on the homepage .
Some of these products cost more than $ 300 , a steep price to pay when the newest version of the watch itself sells for $ 399 — particularly when considering the income levels of the potential users : A 2016-17 report by researchers at the University of New Hampshire ’ s Institute on Disability identified the share of disabled people at or below the poverty line in the United States at @ @ @ @ @ @ @ than the non-disabled population .
While the watch was not perfectly accurate in my case , it still opens up the possibility for wheelchair users to improve their health outcomes .
With a little more refinement , these apps and devices could be just as useful to wheelchair users as they are to the general population .

Smart watches and fitness trackers have transformed the world of exercise, spawning a generation of active tech users. The Apple Watch, FitBit and Strava have prided themselves on getting the world moving. But one group of people has been frequently left out of this fitness revolution: wheelchair users.
Steps, after all, are not easily comparable to pushes of a wheelchair. And yet, those in wheelchairs need fitness tools just as much as everyone else, if not more than those who don’t identify with a disability. A 2014 study by a team from the National Center on Birth Defects and Developmental Disabilities and the National Center for Chronic Disease Prevention and Health Promotion found a difference of 21 percentage points in reported activity levels between those with disabilities and those without.
Smart watch and fitness tracking companies have made efforts toward inclusion. The Apple Watch began supporting wheelchair users in 2016, and Strava also debuted wheelchair and handbike activity modes around that time. (Strava put out an update on Aug. 12 that made it possible to set designated wheelchair, handcycle, velomobile and e-bike goals rather than listing them as running or cycling.) Disability news and culture sites like The Mighty heralded the Apple Watch release as “good news” for both wheelchair athletes and the regular wheelchair user, but the apps and devices still aren’t serving wheelchair users as well as they could.
Research done by researchers at San Diego State University in 2017 found that the Apple Watch often did not have full accuracy when it came to push count. In their words, “[The] Apple Watch is suitable for tracking high-frequency standardized (i.e., treadmill) pushing and arm ergometry but not low-frequency pushing or overground tasks.”
For some, this may not seem like a large problem. After all, there is no perfect match within an activity data set. But the device’s accuracy could be much more important to, for instance, a national team athlete than a wheelchair user for whom elite movement is not an option. What happens next to the data coming out of these apps and devices is also crucial, since researchers may be using it in their studies. If the data on wheelchair users isn’t accurate, whatever recommendations come out of those studies might not help disabled users — and could even make fitness harder for them if they set unrealistic expectations.
While this lack of accuracy is a problem, the individual data collected by users is still important. It can be used to show tangible improvement for users and to motivate a population that can find it hard to exercise regularly. William Miller, a professor in the Department of Occupational Science and Occupational Therapy at the University of British Columbia, brought this forward in a call for participants for an as of yet unpublished research project in the same vein.
“Technology that is reliable and accurate has been shown to be able to positively motivate users to increase physical activity,” he wrote. “This knowledge is particularly important for a manual wheelchair user population due to decreased physical activity levels within this population.”
Take the Apple Watch, for example. A team of researchers from Finland and Australia found in 2019 that its “push-count estimates are acceptable for personal, self-monitoring purposes and for research entailing group-level analyses, but less acceptable where accurate push-count measures for an individual are required.” They did find that this error, averaging out to 13.5 percent, was comparable to the errors found in similar studies that matched visually monitored step counts with pedometer results in non-wheelchair users. But more accurate push counts might be needed in an elite sporting environment, for example, or when push count or distance is being used as a key health indicator by a medical professional. Users with disabilities might also want to compare their statistics to their non-wheelchair-using friends.
Apple sent a review unit for this story as I tried to determine if the research that I’d found was missing any aspects of my experience. Apple developed features that mirrored the step count available to able-bodied users, including the reminder to get up and move, and to create wheelchair-accessible workout modes. The integration asking me to go for a roll was a welcome addition.
I tested the Apple Watch by wheeling down a carpeted hallway at a regular pace. Though the 2019 study observed that the watch tended to undercount wheelchair pushes, I found that the watch tended to overestimate my number of pushes slightly. This could be because of many factors, as the researchers from Finland and Australia noted, including the speed at which the push was taken, a variable that they recommended go under further investigation.
Testing the Apple Watch Number of pushes in a wheelchair as counted by the user vs. as recorded by an Apple Watch Attempt Pushes As counted Pushes via Apple Watch First 40 41 Second 33 36 Third 35 38 Fourth 37 41 John Loeppky tested the Apple Watch on a carpeted hallway, pushing a wheelchair at a regular pace.
When you initially set up the app on your phone – for me that’s an iPhone XR – it asks you whether you will be using steps or pushes to calculate. But there’s no easy way to switch between wheelchair and walking modes. As an ambulatory wheelchair user, I stand up and sit down regularly throughout the day. And I’m not alone: According to research published in 2014, approximately 6.8 percent of Americans identified as having “ambulatory difficulties.” The separation between walking and wheeling means that users like me are unlikely to get an accurate reading when the movement of an entire day is taken into account.
The watch is clear in its commitment to accessibility. On the App Store, apps for voice recording, augmentative communication (AAC) and keyboard typing from the watch are included on the homepage. Some of these products cost more than $300, a steep price to pay when the newest version of the watch itself sells for $399 — particularly when considering the income levels of the potential users: A 2016-17 report by researchers at the University of New Hampshire’s Institute on Disability identified the share of disabled people at or below the poverty line in the United States at 20.9 percent, 7.8 percentage points higher than the non-disabled population.
While the watch was not perfectly accurate in my case, it still opens up the possibility for wheelchair users to improve their health outcomes. With a little more refinement, these apps and devices could be just as useful to wheelchair users as they are to the general population.


fivethirthyeight--2020-09-04--How Trump And COVID-19 Have Reshaped The Modern Militia Movement

In the video , the host of a local independent news radio program surveys the late-night shadows of a Kenosha , Wisconsin , car lot .
You can just make out four men , long rifles in their hands , as they pace on top of the building .
“ We got militia on the roof here , and it ’ s pretty neat , ” he says .
On the ground , the videographer chats with other people he identifies as part of “ the militia ” — including an eager and excited-looking kid who tells the videographer his @ @ @ @ @ @ @ go on to allegedly kill two people and injure a third later that night .
In the aftermath , the extent of his ties to militia activity — and militia activity itself — have been widely discussed : Are militias hate groups ?
Was Rittenhouse actually a part of a formal militia group ?
When people who identify as militia members show up in the middle of a protest … whose side are they on ?
For the purposes of this article , when we refer to the militia movement , we are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ paramilitary activists and groups with strong anti-government leanings .
But beyond that , modern militias are hard to explain and categorize — what even counts as a militia is up for debate .
One thing is for sure : There is no one militia — not in Kenosha that night and not anywhere in the country .
Instead , experts say , “ the militia ” is really a multifaceted movement with fluid boundaries .
The key to understanding that movement ’ s role in the chaos of 2020 is knowing just how @ @ @ @ @ @ @ what apparent militia members believe — much less how they ’ re connected to each other and the broader movement .
While established militias are kind of like a heavily armed scout troop — formal organizations with ranks and membership dues and training programs and regular meetings — some academics argue that many people who are falling into the militia movement ’ s orbit these days are more like loosely affiliated individuals .
“ Members ” is a strong word for this kind of community , with lots of people drifting along , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ guns in tow , to protests — despite having no clear ties to any specific group .
Even the organized , club-like militias don ’ t ascribe to a single overarching ideology , which makes it especially difficult to figure out what motivates individuals like Rittenhouse , or even how to describe them .
“ It ’ s almost like people are choosing their own adventure , ” said Oren Segal , vice president of the Center on Extremism at the Anti-Defamation League .
So a crowd like the one that showed up @ @ @ @ @ @ @ individuals , even strangers , with little connecting them except a shared interest in gun rights and a sense that they ’ re the only ones who can protect their community .
And in these trying times — amid a pandemic and protests against racial injustice , plus a president who is giving them more public support than they ’ ve ever had from the national political establishment — those individuals are taking a collective turn in a direction that , experts fear , is likely to result in more violence .
An @ @ @ @ @ @ @ individual with ties to the militia movement — is not , of course , unique to 2020 or even the Trump era .
Experts who study modern militias quibble over when the movement actually emerged , but most whom we spoke to date it to the late 1980s and early 1990s , when paramilitary groups and self-described “ sovereign citizens ” ( who believe they , and not the government , get to decide which laws they follow ) began to organize , partially in response to the deaths of political dissenters in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , Idaho .
These groups didn ’ t bear much resemblance to the colonial-era militias mentioned in the U.S. Constitution , but they had a few things in common — specifically , anger at the federal government , and a strong belief in their individual right to own weapons and use those weapons to defend themselves against perceived government overreach or a threat to their community .
How the various members of the movement define that threat is where things get muddy .
For instance , some — but not all — militia @ @ @ @ @ @ @ power movement , and see themselves as part of a struggle against the federal government that would eventually lead to a race war .
Other parts of the militia movement , conversely , have explicitly rejected the white supremacist label .
But that doesn ’ t mean that their members don ’ t hold racist views .
And the decentralized nature of the movement has made it easy for militia groups or leaders to disavow individual people who committed acts of violence , even when they were likely influenced by some part of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ media has made it even easier for someone with a passing interest to find out about militias online , and get involved — even tangentially — in whatever part of the movement fits their ideology and goals .
“ People are organizing more around concepts and less around groups , ” Segal told us .
Some people might be pro-police ; others might be anti-police .
Some might be libertarian , others might be trying to stoke a race war .
“ They identify with an ideology , maybe with a movement .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ part of Militia Group A , B or C , ” he said .
The rise of President Trump , and the tumultuous events of 2020 , have made it even more difficult to untangle what militias are doing and what their individual adherents believe .
From the beginning of his candidacy , Trump ’ s rhetoric — his attacks on the “ deep state ” or the anti-Muslim and anti-immigrant insults that peppered his tweets and speeches — have resonated with and garnered public responses from people within the militia movement .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ war or warned about threats from the left , it brought extremist theories and conversations into the national conversation .
“ With Trump , the fringe entered the mainstream , ” said Lawrence Rosenthal , the chair and lead researcher of the Berkeley Center for Right-Wing Studies at the University of California , Berkeley .
The pandemic — and the racial injustice protests that have roiled cities throughout the summer — appear to have brought even more people into the militia movement ’ s orbit .
Suddenly , people were at home all @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the future and spending a lot more time online .
Many in the militia movement chafed at state lockdown orders , and started appearing , heavily armed , at state capitols across the country to protest what they saw as an assault on their individual freedoms .
“ It ’ s the same central narrative about government tyranny : ‘ I have the right to get a haircut , you don ’ t have the right to tell us we have to shelter in place , ’ ” said Cynthia Miller-Idriss , a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ runs the Polarization and Extremism Research and Innovation Lab .
The same messages were echoing across internet forums and Facebook groups , including among more loosely organized corners of the militia movement , prompting people who weren ’ t part of formal militia groups to show up .
And they didn ’ t just appear at protests of government lockdowns — militia members also materialized at the protests of police brutality that sprang up in the wake of the killing of George Floyd in Minneapolis .
People in that city are still arguing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ people were supporting protesters , supporting police , simply trying to incite violence , or some combination thereof .
Many of those people might never have met before in real life , but they sported signs of a shared identity , like Hawaiian shirts , the emblem of the apocalyptic “ Boogaloo ” movement , an amorphous online militia that has been described as a “ meme-based insurgency.
” “ Boogaloo ” identifiers aren ’ t held together by a coherent ideology — or even a shared sense of what it means to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ranks have swelled quickly since the pandemic began , according to research by the Network Contagion Research Institute and others .
And what these individuals do have in common is a tendency to be armed to the teeth in situations where tensions are already very high .
For obvious reasons , that increases the likelihood of a violent confrontation .
Fear and anxiety are predictors of people — particularly young people — turning towards extremism and violence , said Miller-Idriss .
In that context , the conditions of the pandemic are a perfect @ @ @ @ @ @ @ We know from the research that unemployment itself does not lead to greater risk of engaging in extremist behaviors but economic precarity does , ” she said .
For the last six months , the entire country has lived on the edge of economic and social precarity .
What if our institutions crumble ?
What if we can ’ t get our normal lives back ?
Extremist ideologies can offer meaning , purpose and a narrative of control when everything feels out of it .
The president ’ s rhetoric has fed into @ @ @ @ @ @ @ time he was elected , Trump was a hero to many in the militia movement .
“ Donald Trump has succeeded in being at once the head of government and the head of anti-government , ” Rosenthal said .
“ It ’ s a remarkable thing , actually.
” With Trump saying both implicitly and explicitly that militias or even just armed individuals are the only thing standing between America and the chaos of a leftist takeover of the country , the promise of control becomes even stronger .
It becomes a call @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Americans , sitting at home without school or even work , may try to answer .
But if the head of the government isn ’ t the threat , who is ?
The answer , said Sam Jackson , a professor at the University of Albany and the author of a new book on one of the country ’ s most prominent modern militia groups , has turned out to be other Americans — specifically , left-leaning ones who oppose Trump .
That transition wasn ’ t as hard to make as it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ many of the individuals loosely affiliated with the militia movement never really saw themselves as exactly “ anti-government ” to begin with .
Instead , it ’ s better to think of them as radical libertarians , who wanted drastically less government , or maybe different government .
“ So when their man is in office , it ’ s an easier pivot for them to say … not all government is bad , but we don ’ t need to target the White House anymore , ” he said .
But targeting @ @ @ @ @ @ @ drastic change in the character of the American militia movement , said Robert Churchill , a history professor at the University of Hartford who extensively researched the militia movement of the 1990s .
The majority of militia members back then were radical libertarians , he said , agreeing with Jackson , but their opposition to the federal government broadly meant they weren ’ t a partisan force .
In fact , that definition of militias — small , armed groups of civilians fighting against the government — has characterized these kinds of movements @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Until now .
Given the way things are changing , the people who study the militia movement and have spent years talking to its members think there ’ s a risk of American militias becoming more like the militias of other , often politically unstable , countries .
“ What matters is if the movement becomes essentially a more traditional Latin American pro-regime paramilitary , which seems to be what Trump is trying to create or wants , ” Churchill said .

UPDATE (Oct. 8, 2020, 1:40 p.m.): On Thursday afternoon, federal charges were announced against six men who allegedly plotted with a militia group to kidnap Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, a Democrat. According to the FBI, the men held anti-government views and were planning to take Whitmer hostage and transport her to Wisconsin for a “trial.”
Whitmer has gotten a lot of flak during her time as governor from right-wing opponents of lockdown measures imposed earlier this year to prevent the spread of COVID-19, including armed militia members who protested outside the statehouse in May. In April, President Trump was openly enthusiastic about the protests, tweeting, “LIBERATE MICHIGAN!”
Last month, we wrote about how the COVID-19 pandemic and Trump’s presidency have transformed and invigorated the militia movement — in ways that some experts worry could lead to more violence like the thwarted plot against Whitmer.
In the video, the host of a local independent news radio program surveys the late-night shadows of a Kenosha, Wisconsin, car lot. You can just make out four men, long rifles in their hands, as they pace on top of the building. “We got militia on the roof here, and it’s pretty neat,” he says. On the ground, the videographer chats with other people he identifies as part of “the militia” — including an eager and excited-looking kid who tells the videographer his name is Kyle.
Kyle Rittenhouse would go on to allegedly kill two people and injure a third later that night. In the aftermath, the extent of his ties to militia activity — and militia activity itself — have been widely discussed: Are militias hate groups? Was Rittenhouse actually a part of a formal militia group? When people who identify as militia members show up in the middle of a protest … whose side are they on?
For the purposes of this article, when we refer to the militia movement, we are referring to an umbrella term that encompasses paramilitary activists and groups with strong anti-government leanings. But beyond that, modern militias are hard to explain and categorize — what even counts as a militia is up for debate. One thing is for sure: There is no one militia — not in Kenosha that night and not anywhere in the country. Instead, experts say, “the militia” is really a multifaceted movement with fluid boundaries. The key to understanding that movement’s role in the chaos of 2020 is knowing just how difficult it can be to pin down what apparent militia members believe — much less how they’re connected to each other and the broader movement.
While established militias are kind of like a heavily armed scout troop — formal organizations with ranks and membership dues and training programs and regular meetings — some academics argue that many people who are falling into the militia movement’s orbit these days are more like loosely affiliated individuals. “Members” is a strong word for this kind of community, with lots of people drifting along, sharing memes online or showing up, guns in tow, to protests — despite having no clear ties to any specific group. Even the organized, club-like militias don’t ascribe to a single overarching ideology, which makes it especially difficult to figure out what motivates individuals like Rittenhouse, or even how to describe them. “It’s almost like people are choosing their own adventure,” said Oren Segal, vice president of the Center on Extremism at the Anti-Defamation League.
So a crowd like the one that showed up in Kenosha can be made up of individuals, even strangers, with little connecting them except a shared interest in gun rights and a sense that they’re the only ones who can protect their community. And in these trying times — amid a pandemic and protests against racial injustice, plus a president who is giving them more public support than they’ve ever had from the national political establishment — those individuals are taking a collective turn in a direction that, experts fear, is likely to result in more violence.
An armed militia — or even a lone individual with ties to the militia movement — is not, of course, unique to 2020 or even the Trump era. Experts who study modern militias quibble over when the movement actually emerged, but most whom we spoke to date it to the late 1980s and early 1990s, when paramilitary groups and self-described “sovereign citizens” (who believe they, and not the government, get to decide which laws they follow) began to organize, partially in response to the deaths of political dissenters in Waco, Texas, and Ruby Ridge, Idaho. These groups didn’t bear much resemblance to the colonial-era militias mentioned in the U.S. Constitution, but they had a few things in common — specifically, anger at the federal government, and a strong belief in their individual right to own weapons and use those weapons to defend themselves against perceived government overreach or a threat to their community.
How the various members of the movement define that threat is where things get muddy. For instance, some — but not all — militia members are also part of the white power movement, and see themselves as part of a struggle against the federal government that would eventually lead to a race war. Other parts of the militia movement, conversely, have explicitly rejected the white supremacist label. But that doesn’t mean that their members don’t hold racist views. And the decentralized nature of the movement has made it easy for militia groups or leaders to disavow individual people who committed acts of violence, even when they were likely influenced by some part of the movement’s ideology. Social media has made it even easier for someone with a passing interest to find out about militias online, and get involved — even tangentially — in whatever part of the movement fits their ideology and goals.
“People are organizing more around concepts and less around groups,” Segal told us. Some people might be pro-police; others might be anti-police. Some might be libertarian, others might be trying to stoke a race war. “They identify with an ideology, maybe with a movement. But not everyone is going to be part of Militia Group A, B or C,” he said.
The rise of President Trump, and the tumultuous events of 2020, have made it even more difficult to untangle what militias are doing and what their individual adherents believe. From the beginning of his candidacy, Trump’s rhetoric — his attacks on the “deep state” or the anti-Muslim and anti-immigrant insults that peppered his tweets and speeches — have resonated with and garnered public responses from people within the militia movement. When Trump tweeted about an impending civil war or warned about threats from the left, it brought extremist theories and conversations into the national conversation. “With Trump, the fringe entered the mainstream,” said Lawrence Rosenthal, the chair and lead researcher of the Berkeley Center for Right-Wing Studies at the University of California, Berkeley.
The pandemic — and the racial injustice protests that have roiled cities throughout the summer — appear to have brought even more people into the militia movement’s orbit. Suddenly, people were at home all day, feeling anxious and fearful about the future and spending a lot more time online. Many in the militia movement chafed at state lockdown orders, and started appearing, heavily armed, at state capitols across the country to protest what they saw as an assault on their individual freedoms. “It’s the same central narrative about government tyranny: ‘I have the right to get a haircut, you don’t have the right to tell us we have to shelter in place,’” said Cynthia Miller-Idriss, a sociologist at American University, where she runs the Polarization and Extremism Research and Innovation Lab.
The same messages were echoing across internet forums and Facebook groups, including among more loosely organized corners of the militia movement, prompting people who weren’t part of formal militia groups to show up. And they didn’t just appear at protests of government lockdowns — militia members also materialized at the protests of police brutality that sprang up in the wake of the killing of George Floyd in Minneapolis. People in that city are still arguing, months later, over whether those people were supporting protesters, supporting police, simply trying to incite violence, or some combination thereof.
Many of those people might never have met before in real life, but they sported signs of a shared identity, like Hawaiian shirts, the emblem of the apocalyptic “Boogaloo” movement, an amorphous online militia that has been described as a “meme-based insurgency.” “Boogaloo” identifiers aren’t held together by a coherent ideology — or even a shared sense of what it means to don a Hawaiian shirt. But their ranks have swelled quickly since the pandemic began, according to research by the Network Contagion Research Institute and others. And what these individuals do have in common is a tendency to be armed to the teeth in situations where tensions are already very high. For obvious reasons, that increases the likelihood of a violent confrontation.
Fear and anxiety are predictors of people — particularly young people — turning towards extremism and violence, said Miller-Idriss. In that context, the conditions of the pandemic are a perfect culture for radicalism to grow. “We know from the research that unemployment itself does not lead to greater risk of engaging in extremist behaviors but economic precarity does,” she said. For the last six months, the entire country has lived on the edge of economic and social precarity. What if our institutions crumble? What if we can’t get our normal lives back? Extremist ideologies can offer meaning, purpose and a narrative of control when everything feels out of it.
The president’s rhetoric has fed into that, experts say. By the time he was elected, Trump was a hero to many in the militia movement. “Donald Trump has succeeded in being at once the head of government and the head of anti-government,” Rosenthal said. “It’s a remarkable thing, actually.”
With Trump saying both implicitly and explicitly that militias or even just armed individuals are the only thing standing between America and the chaos of a leftist takeover of the country, the promise of control becomes even stronger. It becomes a call to arms — one that more young Americans, sitting at home without school or even work, may try to answer.
But if the head of the government isn’t the threat, who is? The answer, said Sam Jackson, a professor at the University of Albany and the author of a new book on one of the country’s most prominent modern militia groups, has turned out to be other Americans — specifically, left-leaning ones who oppose Trump.
That transition wasn’t as hard to make as it might seem, Jackson said, because many of the individuals loosely affiliated with the militia movement never really saw themselves as exactly “anti-government” to begin with. Instead, it’s better to think of them as radical libertarians, who wanted drastically less government, or maybe different government. “So when their man is in office, it’s an easier pivot for them to say … not all government is bad, but we don’t need to target the White House anymore,” he said.
But targeting opponents of the White House means a drastic change in the character of the American militia movement, said Robert Churchill, a history professor at the University of Hartford who extensively researched the militia movement of the 1990s. The majority of militia members back then were radical libertarians, he said, agreeing with Jackson, but their opposition to the federal government broadly meant they weren’t a partisan force. In fact, that definition of militias — small, armed groups of civilians fighting against the government — has characterized these kinds of movements throughout American history, Churchill told us.
Until now. Given the way things are changing, the people who study the militia movement and have spent years talking to its members think there’s a risk of American militias becoming more like the militias of other, often politically unstable, countries. “What matters is if the movement becomes essentially a more traditional Latin American pro-regime paramilitary, which seems to be what Trump is trying to create or wants,” Churchill said.
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