fivethirthyeight--2020-12-30--Why A Split Verdict In Georgia Isn’t That Crazy

Even with many prestigious pollsters sitting the Georgia runoffs out , there have been plenty of polls of the two U.S. Senate runoffs and they continue to show an exceptionally close race .
As of Tuesday afternoon , Democrat Raphael Warnock had a nominal lead of 0.5 percentage points over Republican Sen. Kelly Loeffler in the special Senate election , while Republican Sen. David Perdue had an equally slim 0.4-point lead over Democrat Jon Ossoff in the regular Senate election .
We aren ’ t planning to make probabilistic forecasts in Georgia , but it ’ s safe to say @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the runoffs would put each race at about 50:50 .
What about indicators apart from the polls ?
While we could go through the various “ fundamentals ” that our congressional model considers , such as fundraising , incumbency , and state partisanship , perhaps an easier jumping-off point is simply to start with the results on Nov. 3 , since it ’ s likely that the vast majority of voters will choose the same candidate again if they can .
We ’ ll then consider what factors may have changed between November @ @ @ @ @ @ @ or which candidate people pick .
In the regular election in November , Perdue won a 49.7 percent plurality of the vote compared to 47.9 percent for Ossoff — that is , a difference of about 2 points .
Most of the remaining votes went to the Libertarian candidate , Shane Hazel .
Who picks up that 2 percent could make a big difference , too , if the margins are razor-thin on Jan. 5 .
Ordinarily , you ’ d think that a Libertarian candidate ’ s votes would consist of mostly @ @ @ @ @ @ @ toward the Republican candidate in a two-way race .
On the other hand , since Perdue is an incumbent , Hazel ’ s votes might be considered more of an “ anti-incumbent ” vote , which would then favor Ossoff .
The AP Votecast exit poll of Georgia voters — although its sample size of Hazel voters was small — found that Hazel drew support from 2 percent of moderate voters as compared to 1 percent of liberal voters and 1 percent of conservative voters , suggesting they might be more middle-of-the-road voters @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s worth keeping in mind that Perdue won more votes than Ossoff on Nov. 3 and also that Ossoff slightly underperformed Joe Biden .
The exit polls do not provide any particularly strong evidence about which sorts of voters backed Biden but not Ossoff — trust me , I ’ ve looked — although one intriguing clue is that Ossoff won the votes of 15 percent of voters who thought the economy was good or excellent as compared to 19 percent for Biden , a relatively wide gap .
Perhaps some Biden-Perdue @ @ @ @ @ @ @ were relatively happy with the status quo and their personal circumstances but disapproved of President Trump ’ s personal conduct and voted for Biden for that reason .
Benchmarking the special election result is more complicated because of the presence of multiple Democratic and Republican candidates on the ballot in November .
One method I ’ ve seen elsewhere is to add up the vote totals for all Democratic and Republican candidates on the ballot .
If you do that , the Republicans won 47,808 more votes than Democrats in November , or @ @ @ @ @ @ @ However , this is not necessarily ideal .
The research I did for our congressional model , based on an analysis of past elections with runoffs , found that while the “ total party ” vote that I described above is indeed a good metric for forecasting runoff results , the margin separating the top two candidates also has predictive power .
It ’ s relevant , in other words , that Warnock finished ahead of Loeffler by 7 points .
Based on the formula we use in our model , this implies @ @ @ @ @ @ @ two-way race on Nov. 3 by about 1.5 points .
Does it really make sense , though , that Loeffler would have narrowly lost a two-way race on Election Day when Perdue would narrowly have won his ?
Well , maybe .
Perdue is an elected incumbent whereas Loeffler is not — she was appointed to her seat to replace now-retired Sen. Johnny Isakson — and elected incumbents generally perform stronger than appointed ones .
Furthermore , Loeffler , in an effort to outflank fellow Rep. Doug Collins , the other leading Republican @ @ @ @ @ @ @ as extremely conservative , running an ad that called her “ more conservative than Attila the Hun ” and bragging about her “ 100 percent Trump voting record.
” ( Loeffler had , indeed , voted with Trump 100 percent of the time until recently , although she broke ranks with him in voting to approve the National Defense Authorization Act . )
But while this may have been good messaging to finish ahead of Collins , it ’ s not necessarily the best way to win over suburban voters , who helped @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s also possible that at least some voters were voting tactically in the special election .
A moderate voter who preferred Warnock to Collins but Collins to Loeffler might have chosen to use her vote for Collins on Nov. 3 , figuring based on pre-election polls that Warnock was nearly certain to advance to the runoff and didn ’ t need her vote .
Or — who knows ?
— some Democrats who assumed Warnock was a shoo-in to reach the runoff could have voted for whichever Republican they thought would be @ @ @ @ @ @ @ runoff .
I ’ m not saying there are necessarily large numbers of voters in these categories .
But there may be some of them .
And indeed , polls of the runoffs show Perdue outperforming Loeffler by about 1 point on average .
So a split verdict is possible — although probably only if both elections are extremely close — with the Loeffler race likely being the easier of the two for Democrats to win .
With those benchmarks — ambiguous though they are — established , the other big question is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ November .
We ’ ll break this into two categories : ( 1 ) What could cause a shift in turnout ; and ( 2 ) what could actually cause people to switch their votes .
How turnout could be different than in November I ’ m not going to go into too much detail here because it ’ s been covered extensively at FiveThirtyEight and elsewhere , but most people ’ s priors entering the runoff — including mine — were that Republicans were more likely to gain ground than lose it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the runoff .
That was for some relatively simple reasons .
First , Republicans have historically gained ground in Georgia runoffs .
Second , the opposition party usually has an enthusiasm advantage , and with Biden having been elected and Democrats having ( narrowly ) retained control of the U.S. House , Republicans are arguably the opposition party .
( Although this is a big assumption that we ’ ll scrutinize below . )
Third , Georgia — even after Biden ’ s win this year — is still slightly to the right @ @ @ @ @ @ @ keep in mind that Biden won the national popular vote by 4.5 points but Georgia by only 0.2 points ) so a neutral political environment there might favor Republicans .
At the very least , it ’ s not clear that any of these are rock-solid reasons to assume turnout will help Republicans .
Precedent about past runoffs is not necessarily that informative considering Georgia has changed a lot since most of those previous runoffs were conducted — particularly in affluent , more diverse suburban counties , which have moved strongly toward Democrats @ @ @ @ @ @ @ retain more of their turnout in runoffs , and if they do so again , that could help Democrats rather than Republicans .
Next , although Republicans will become the opposition party on Jan. 20 , Trump isn ’ t behaving like a typical lame duck , to say the least .
Instead , he remains omnipresent , both with his bullshit claims about election fraud and with what ’ s been an active legislative period in which Trump has already vetoed one major bill and also threatened to veto a COVID-19 stimulus @ @ @ @ @ @ @ there ’ s been plenty of debate over whether a meaningful number of Republican voters will actually follow through on calls to boycott the election , Trump ’ s refusal to concede could also have other , more subtle effects .
For instance , it could keep Democrats feeling anxious rather than savoring their victory — and anxiety is generally a good way to raise voter turnout .
Additionally , the fact that Democrats will control the White House for the next four years may not be as front of mind for independents @ @ @ @ @ @ @ divided government .
Finally , although Georgia might still lean red in a neutral political environment — if you want a more precise definition , think of that as an environment where neither candidate leads on the generic congressional ballot — it ’ s not clear that we ’ re in such an environment now .
Rather , it may be that we haven ’ t yet exited from the November environment , which though a bit disappointing for Democrats was nonetheless somewhat blue-leaning .
Unfortunately , there have hardly been any polls @ @ @ @ @ @ @ It ’ s worth noting , though , that Trump ’ s approval rating has actually slipped a bit since the election .
On Nov. 3 , polls of registered and likely voters showed Trump at a -6.9 net approval rating ( 45.2 percent approve and 52.1 percent disapprove ) ; that had worsened to -9.2 as of Tuesday afternoon ( 43.3 percent approve and 52.5 percent disapprove ) .
While not a huge shift , this is the opposite of what typically happens in the lame-duck period .
Even unpopular presidents such @ @ @ @ @ @ @ improvement to their approval rating as they are preparing to leave office .
Democrats also have one ace in the hole when it comes to turnout .
Biden won in November even though the Black vote wasn ’ t especially high as a share of turnout in Georgia ; in fact , the share of Black voters declined slightly , relative to past elections .
( It ’ s important to keep in mind that Black turnout was still very high overall in November , but it was also very high — or @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ) So although there are many reasons to be cautious about early voting data , it ’ s at least intriguing that Black voter turnout represents a larger share of the electorate so far than it did at a comparable point in the November election : That certainly doesn ’ t mean that Democrats are guaranteed a turnout edge or anything like that ; Republicans could easily overcome any Democratic advantage from the early vote with a big turnout on Jan. 5 .
But I ’ d put it like this : If @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and signals that might portend a Democratic victory for both seats , one of the items on that list would be growth in Black voter turnout in the early voting period .
It ’ s nowhere near a sufficient condition , but it might be a necessary one , and it seems to be falling into place for Democrats .
Another question is what happens to Republican turnout when Trump himself isn ’ t on the ballot .
Trump has campaigned on behalf of Loeffler and Perdue in Georgia , but his message @ @ @ @ @ @ @ unfocused ( though he ’ s scheduled to visit again next week ) .
Another reason to have started out believing that Republicans would gain ground in the runoffs is because voters typically have some preference for divided government — not necessarily when they ’ re asked about it in polls but based on how they behave in midterm elections .
On average , the president ’ s party suffers about a 5-point penalty at the midterms , according to research we ’ ve conducted for our congressional model .
And it can @ @ @ @ @ @ @ party also controls both branches of Congress , as in 2010 and 2018 .
Again , though , that assumes that voters will be thinking about who will control the government on Jan. 20 .
And they may not be doing that , given how active and atypical the lame-duck period has been with Trump refusing to concede .
The chaotic debate over the stimulus package for the past few weeks has also not been the best advertisement for divided government .
Another question then is : What happens to the handful of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Republicans who were voting for Biden as a repudiation of Trump but are not necessarily on board with the Democratic Party ’ s agenda , they may be fairly thrilled with how the election went down in November and will vote for Perdue again to preserve divided government .
But if they were voting for Perdue because he was an incumbent — elected incumbents do retain some loyalty from voters , although less so than in previous eras — they could , in theory , vote for Ossoff now that they know control @ @ @ @ @ @ @ This is a data point I ’ d approach with a lot of caution , but it ’ s worth noting that the Edison Research exit poll of Georgia , which has been recalibrated to match the actual results in the state , found that a tiny 49-48 plurality of Georgia voters preferred Democratic control of Congress in the November electorate .
And in the special election , there ’ s also the question of what voters who voted for candidates other than Warnock or Loeffler — more than 40 percent of the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for Loeffler is that her positioning herself to the extreme right in the November election will turn some of them off .
Although Collins has a conservative voting record in Congress , his voters were actually somewhat more moderate than Loeffler ’ s in November .
If a handful of them drift over to Warnock , that could be a problem for Loeffler — likewise , if some of them simply sit out the runoff .
Loeffler ’ s ideological positioning for the runoff has been more opaque than for the November election @ @ @ @ @ @ @ bragging about her 100 percent Trump voting record and — along with Perdue — signed a letter calling on Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger to resign as the state ’ s results were being finalized .
Meanwhile , Warnock made it through the November election relatively unscathed , since he had emerged as the clear Democratic front-runner by mid-September while Loeffler and Collins were training their fire on one another .
He has since , though , been subject to a series of attacks about past comments he made as a preacher @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
In other words , Warnock is not likely to maintain the strong favorability ratings he had in November when he wasn ’ t subject to as much incoming fire .
On the other side of the coin , though , both Perdue and Loeffler have been subject to renewed scrutiny about stock trades they made while in office , although it ’ s not clear how much new information has been revealed since November .
For what it ’ s worth , this is one of those times when I changed my @ @ @ @ @ @ @ article .
I assumed I ’ d come out of it saying something like , “ Sure , polls show a toss-up and it ’ s anybody ’ s race , but we all know that the Republicans are slight favorites.
” As RealClearPolitics ’ s Sean Trende wrote last month , however , I ’ m not really so sure there ’ s a solid basis for that conclusion .
This is a fairly sui generis election and it ’ s not clear what “ fundamentals ” would apply , especially in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ duck but not at all acting like one , and his approval ratings are actually worse than they were on Nov. 3 .
Nor is this the strongest batch of candidates ; three of the four candidates ( all but Perdue ) have never won an election before .
If you default to the November results , those would imply that Perdue is the slight favorite , but I don ’ t think that ’ s true of Loeffler .
That doesn ’ t mean I think the Democrats are favored , either @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are as close to a toss-up as you can get , and at FiveThirtyEight we ’ d generally need a good reason to buck the polls .
While the question of whether polls have a built-in bias against Republicans — or for that matter , whether they have a short-term bias that applies during COVID-19 — is something we ’ ll need to sort out before the 2022 midterms , the polls were fairly accurate in Georgia in November and the pollsters who have ventured in to poll the runoffs are a fairly @ @ @ @ @ @ @ race is close enough that the possibility of a split verdict — most likely with Perdue winning but not Loeffler — may be higher than most people assume .

Even with many prestigious pollsters sitting the Georgia runoffs out, there have been plenty of polls of the two U.S. Senate runoffs and they continue to show an exceptionally close race. As of Tuesday afternoon, Democrat Raphael Warnock had a nominal lead of 0.5 percentage points over Republican Sen. Kelly Loeffler in the special Senate election, while Republican Sen. David Perdue had an equally slim 0.4-point lead over Democrat Jon Ossoff in the regular Senate election. We aren’t planning to make probabilistic forecasts in Georgia, but it’s safe to say that a “polls-only” view of the runoffs would put each race at about 50:50.
Why many pollsters are sitting out the Georgia runoffs
What about indicators apart from the polls? While we could go through the various “fundamentals” that our congressional model considers, such as fundraising, incumbency, and state partisanship, perhaps an easier jumping-off point is simply to start with the results on Nov. 3, since it’s likely that the vast majority of voters will choose the same candidate again if they can. We’ll then consider what factors may have changed between November and how that could affect either turnout or which candidate people pick.
Benchmarking from the November results
In the regular election in November, Perdue won a 49.7 percent plurality of the vote compared to 47.9 percent for Ossoff — that is, a difference of about 2 points. Most of the remaining votes went to the Libertarian candidate, Shane Hazel.
[Related: Latest Polls Of The Georgia Senate Runoffs]
Who picks up that 2 percent could make a big difference, too, if the margins are razor-thin on Jan. 5. Ordinarily, you’d think that a Libertarian candidate’s votes would consist of mostly conservative voters who might be more inclined toward the Republican candidate in a two-way race. On the other hand, since Perdue is an incumbent, Hazel’s votes might be considered more of an “anti-incumbent” vote, which would then favor Ossoff. The AP Votecast exit poll of Georgia voters — although its sample size of Hazel voters was small — found that Hazel drew support from 2 percent of moderate voters as compared to 1 percent of liberal voters and 1 percent of conservative voters, suggesting they might be more middle-of-the-road voters instead.
In any event, it’s worth keeping in mind that Perdue won more votes than Ossoff on Nov. 3 and also that Ossoff slightly underperformed Joe Biden. The exit polls do not provide any particularly strong evidence about which sorts of voters backed Biden but not Ossoff — trust me, I’ve looked — although one intriguing clue is that Ossoff won the votes of 15 percent of voters who thought the economy was good or excellent as compared to 19 percent for Biden, a relatively wide gap. Perhaps some Biden-Perdue voters, then, were people who were relatively happy with the status quo and their personal circumstances but disapproved of President Trump’s personal conduct and voted for Biden for that reason.
Benchmarking the special election result is more complicated because of the presence of multiple Democratic and Republican candidates on the ballot in November. One method I’ve seen elsewhere is to add up the vote totals for all Democratic and Republican candidates on the ballot. If you do that, the Republicans won 47,808 more votes than Democrats in November, or a margin of around 1 point.
However, this is not necessarily ideal. The research I did for our congressional model, based on an analysis of past elections with runoffs, found that while the “total party” vote that I described above is indeed a good metric for forecasting runoff results, the margin separating the top two candidates also has predictive power. It’s relevant, in other words, that Warnock finished ahead of Loeffler by 7 points. Based on the formula we use in our model, this implies that Warnock would actually have won a two-way race on Nov. 3 by about 1.5 points.
Does it really make sense, though, that Loeffler would have narrowly lost a two-way race on Election Day when Perdue would narrowly have won his? Well, maybe. Perdue is an elected incumbent whereas Loeffler is not — she was appointed to her seat to replace now-retired Sen. Johnny Isakson — and elected incumbents generally perform stronger than appointed ones. Furthermore, Loeffler, in an effort to outflank fellow Rep. Doug Collins, the other leading Republican candidate in that race, positioned herself as extremely conservative, running an ad that called her “more conservative than Attila the Hun” and bragging about her “100 percent Trump voting record.” (Loeffler had, indeed, voted with Trump 100 percent of the time until recently, although she broke ranks with him in voting to approve the National Defense Authorization Act.) But while this may have been good messaging to finish ahead of Collins, it’s not necessarily the best way to win over suburban voters, who helped turn Trump out of office.
[Why Many Pollsters Are Sitting Out The Georgia Runoffs]
It’s also possible that at least some voters were voting tactically in the special election. A moderate voter who preferred Warnock to Collins but Collins to Loeffler might have chosen to use her vote for Collins on Nov. 3, figuring based on pre-election polls that Warnock was nearly certain to advance to the runoff and didn’t need her vote. Or — who knows? — some Democrats who assumed Warnock was a shoo-in to reach the runoff could have voted for whichever Republican they thought would be easier for Warnock to defeat in the runoff.
I’m not saying there are necessarily large numbers of voters in these categories. But there may be some of them. And indeed, polls of the runoffs show Perdue outperforming Loeffler by about 1 point on average. So a split verdict is possible — although probably only if both elections are extremely close — with the Loeffler race likely being the easier of the two for Democrats to win.
With those benchmarks — ambiguous though they are — established, the other big question is what could cause things to change from November. We’ll break this into two categories: (1) What could cause a shift in turnout; and (2) what could actually cause people to switch their votes.
How turnout could be different than in November
I’m not going to go into too much detail here because it’s been covered extensively at FiveThirtyEight and elsewhere, but most people’s priors entering the runoff — including mine — were that Republicans were more likely to gain ground than lose it as a result of turnout falling in the runoff.
That was for some relatively simple reasons. First, Republicans have historically gained ground in Georgia runoffs. Second, the opposition party usually has an enthusiasm advantage, and with Biden having been elected and Democrats having (narrowly) retained control of the U.S. House, Republicans are arguably the opposition party. (Although this is a big assumption that we’ll scrutinize below.) Third, Georgia — even after Biden’s win this year — is still slightly to the right of the U.S. as a whole (keep in mind that Biden won the national popular vote by 4.5 points but Georgia by only 0.2 points) so a neutral political environment there might favor Republicans.
[Related: What The Early Vote In Georgia Can — And Can’t — Tell Us]
At the very least, it’s not clear that any of these are rock-solid reasons to assume turnout will help Republicans. Precedent about past runoffs is not necessarily that informative considering Georgia has changed a lot since most of those previous runoffs were conducted — particularly in affluent, more diverse suburban counties, which have moved strongly toward Democrats. These sorts of suburban counties traditionally retain more of their turnout in runoffs, and if they do so again, that could help Democrats rather than Republicans.
Next, although Republicans will become the opposition party on Jan. 20, Trump isn’t behaving like a typical lame duck, to say the least. Instead, he remains omnipresent, both with his bullshit claims about election fraud and with what’s been an active legislative period in which Trump has already vetoed one major bill and also threatened to veto a COVID-19 stimulus package before backing down. And while there’s been plenty of debate over whether a meaningful number of Republican voters will actually follow through on calls to boycott the election, Trump’s refusal to concede could also have other, more subtle effects. For instance, it could keep Democrats feeling anxious rather than savoring their victory — and anxiety is generally a good way to raise voter turnout. Additionally, the fact that Democrats will control the White House for the next four years may not be as front of mind for independents who might otherwise be inclined to favor divided government.
What the COVID-19 vaccine means for political battles to come
Finally, although Georgia might still lean red in a neutral political environment — if you want a more precise definition, think of that as an environment where neither candidate leads on the generic congressional ballot — it’s not clear that we’re in such an environment now. Rather, it may be that we haven’t yet exited from the November environment, which though a bit disappointing for Democrats was nonetheless somewhat blue-leaning.
Unfortunately, there have hardly been any polls of the generic ballot since November. It’s worth noting, though, that Trump’s approval rating has actually slipped a bit since the election. On Nov. 3, polls of registered and likely voters showed Trump at a -6.9 net approval rating (45.2 percent approve and 52.1 percent disapprove); that had worsened to -9.2 as of Tuesday afternoon (43.3 percent approve and 52.5 percent disapprove). While not a huge shift, this is the opposite of what typically happens in the lame-duck period. Even unpopular presidents such as George W. Bush usually see some improvement to their approval rating as they are preparing to leave office.
Democrats also have one ace in the hole when it comes to turnout. Biden won in November even though the Black vote wasn’t especially high as a share of turnout in Georgia; in fact, the share of Black voters declined slightly, relative to past elections. (It’s important to keep in mind that Black turnout was still very high overall in November, but it was also very high — or even higher — for other groups.)
So although there are many reasons to be cautious about early voting data, it’s at least intriguing that Black voter turnout represents a larger share of the electorate so far than it did at a comparable point in the November election:
The Dem strength is mainly if not entirely due to a stronger Black turnout. This has always been the obvious way for Dems to improve their standing, given relatively weak Black turnout in Nov., and while there aren't any guarantees it sure seems like it's on track to materialize pic.twitter.com/3i2jupOIn3 — Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) December 29, 2020
That certainly doesn’t mean that Democrats are guaranteed a turnout edge or anything like that; Republicans could easily overcome any Democratic advantage from the early vote with a big turnout on Jan. 5. But I’d put it like this: If you had a list of several signs and signals that might portend a Democratic victory for both seats, one of the items on that list would be growth in Black voter turnout in the early voting period. It’s nowhere near a sufficient condition, but it might be a necessary one, and it seems to be falling into place for Democrats.
Another question is what happens to Republican turnout when Trump himself isn’t on the ballot. Trump has campaigned on behalf of Loeffler and Perdue in Georgia, but his message at a rally earlier this month was unfocused (though he’s scheduled to visit again next week).
Could voters switch sides from November?
Another reason to have started out believing that Republicans would gain ground in the runoffs is because voters typically have some preference for divided government — not necessarily when they’re asked about it in polls but based on how they behave in midterm elections. On average, the president’s party suffers about a 5-point penalty at the midterms, according to research we’ve conducted for our congressional model. And it can be larger when the president’s party also controls both branches of Congress, as in 2010 and 2018.
Again, though, that assumes that voters will be thinking about who will control the government on Jan. 20. And they may not be doing that, given how active and atypical the lame-duck period has been with Trump refusing to concede. The chaotic debate over the stimulus package for the past few weeks has also not been the best advertisement for divided government.
[Democrats And Republicans Should Argue More — Not Less]
Another question then is: What happens to the handful of Biden-Perdue voters? If they were moderate Republicans who were voting for Biden as a repudiation of Trump but are not necessarily on board with the Democratic Party’s agenda, they may be fairly thrilled with how the election went down in November and will vote for Perdue again to preserve divided government. But if they were voting for Perdue because he was an incumbent — elected incumbents do retain some loyalty from voters, although less so than in previous eras — they could, in theory, vote for Ossoff now that they know control of Congress is on the line. This is a data point I’d approach with a lot of caution, but it’s worth noting that the Edison Research exit poll of Georgia, which has been recalibrated to match the actual results in the state, found that a tiny 49-48 plurality of Georgia voters preferred Democratic control of Congress in the November electorate.
And in the special election, there’s also the question of what voters who voted for candidates other than Warnock or Loeffler — more than 40 percent of the electorate — will do. One risk for Loeffler is that her positioning herself to the extreme right in the November election will turn some of them off. Although Collins has a conservative voting record in Congress, his voters were actually somewhat more moderate than Loeffler’s in November. If a handful of them drift over to Warnock, that could be a problem for Loeffler — likewise, if some of them simply sit out the runoff. Loeffler’s ideological positioning for the runoff has been more opaque than for the November election, but she’s still been bragging about her 100 percent Trump voting record and — along with Perdue — signed a letter calling on Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger to resign as the state’s results were being finalized.
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Meanwhile, Warnock made it through the November election relatively unscathed, since he had emerged as the clear Democratic front-runner by mid-September while Loeffler and Collins were training their fire on one another. He has since, though, been subject to a series of attacks about past comments he made as a preacher and a domestic dispute with his ex-wife. In other words, Warnock is not likely to maintain the strong favorability ratings he had in November when he wasn’t subject to as much incoming fire. On the other side of the coin, though, both Perdue and Loeffler have been subject to renewed scrutiny about stock trades they made while in office, although it’s not clear how much new information has been revealed since November.
For what it’s worth, this is one of those times when I changed my mind over the course of writing an article. I assumed I’d come out of it saying something like, “Sure, polls show a toss-up and it’s anybody’s race, but we all know that the Republicans are slight favorites.”
As RealClearPolitics’s Sean Trende wrote last month, however, I’m not really so sure there’s a solid basis for that conclusion. This is a fairly sui generis election and it’s not clear what “fundamentals” would apply, especially in a period where Trump is a lame duck but not at all acting like one, and his approval ratings are actually worse than they were on Nov. 3. Nor is this the strongest batch of candidates; three of the four candidates (all but Perdue) have never won an election before. If you default to the November results, those would imply that Perdue is the slight favorite, but I don’t think that’s true of Loeffler.
That doesn’t mean I think the Democrats are favored, either. But the polls show these races are as close to a toss-up as you can get, and at FiveThirtyEight we’d generally need a good reason to buck the polls. While the question of whether polls have a built-in bias against Republicans — or for that matter, whether they have a short-term bias that applies during COVID-19 — is something we’ll need to sort out before the 2022 midterms, the polls were fairly accurate in Georgia in November and the pollsters who have ventured in to poll the runoffs are a fairly Republican-leaning group. In fact, the race is close enough that the possibility of a split verdict — most likely with Perdue winning but not Loeffler — may be higher than most people assume.
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fivethirthyeight--2020-12-31--What To Watch For In The College Football Playoff Semifinals

Defenders of the establishment were rewarded again over the holidays by the College Football Playoff .
Only those with all of human history as a barometer could have foreseen that even in a batty season in which the Rose Bowl would be played in Texas , the selection committee would shun undefeated Group of Five conference champions Cincinnati , Coastal Carolina and San Jose State .
So it appears that a hearty congratulations is in order for fans of the status quo , as the seventh field in the playoff era will crown another ( Power Five ) national champion @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ) vs. No .
3 Ohio State ( 6-0 ) A rematch of last year ’ s semifinal , the definitively better matchup of the two playoff games features not only two of the top quarterbacks , but two of the top overall prospects in the 2021 draft class : Clemson ’ s Trevor Lawrence and Ohio State ’ s Justin Fields .
Lawrence is 34-1 as a starter and — unless he decides to return to school — is almost certain to be the top pick in the upcoming draft , which @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the Jacksonville Jaguars organization at this time next year .
Fields went vegan over the offseason and was on track to set the all-time single-season record for completion percentage until Northwestern did what it always does : makes things unpleasant for opposing offenses .
Fields will have to settle for one of the greatest quarterback seasons in Big Ten history , as defined by Total Quarterback Rating , giving him two of the top three since the metric was introduced in 2004 .
Even with ACC all-time leading rusher Travis Etienne in the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ such that Clemson has relied on the pass more ( 56.9 percent of total snaps ) this season than it has in any under head coach Dabo Swinney .
Had he not contracted COVID-19 , Lawrence likely would have a strong case to be Clemson ’ s first Heisman Trophy winner — a crying shame , indeed .
In previous seasons , with outside possession receiver Tee Higgins in the fold , Lawrence aired it out .
What ’ s unique about this season , then , is that Lawrence is seldom being @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the first season in which offensive coordinator Tony Elliott wasn ’ t sharing those duties .
It has shown .
Relative to last season , Lawrence ’ s air yards per attempt have dropped by almost 16 percent , with his seasonal mark ranked second to last among ACC starters .
Much of that was a result of how Elliott designed the offense to maximize space for speedster Amari Rodgers , who has made 52 of his 69 receptions out of the slot , and Etienne , who has set school records for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ t be calling the plays in the Sugar Bowl ; he tested positive for COVID-19 and will be unavailable for the game .
But his offensive scheme still figures to be problematic for the Buckeye defense given that Ohio State ’ s secondary has been repeatedly exposed by shallow crossing routes , as was the case in the team ’ s narrow win over Indiana .
In eight fewer games , Ohio State has equalled last season ’ s total for passing touchdowns allowed and has allowed more passing yards per game @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
This is the worst Buckeye pass defense of the playoff era by opponent adjusted completion percentage ( 69.8 percent ) and expected points added per game .
Lackluster defense notwithstanding , Ohio State does feature the superior offense , one capable of keeping the Buckeyes in every matchup .
Compared with every FBS offense in the playoff era , the 2020 Buckeyes rank eighth in efficiency ( 93.2 ) .
Fields has the luxury of throwing to Chris Olave , perhaps the Big Ten ’ s best receiver .
Running back Trey @ @ @ @ @ @ @ performance in Buckeye history .
Ohio State will need them both given that Fields will likely have his hands full : The Tigers are first in the nation in Football Outsiders ’ standard downs sack rate behind two true freshmen in Bryan Bresee and Myles Murphy on the defensive line .
Swinney certainly feels that Ohio State is undeserving of the meeting , but this figures to be an exciting battle between even teams .
ESPN ’ s Seth Walder pointed out that , according to the Football Power Index , the team @ @ @ @ @ @ @ thin that the location of the game mattered in picking the favorite .
No .
1 Alabama ( 11-0 ) vs. No .
4 Notre Dame ( 10-1 ) As is tradition , there ’ s onslaught potential in one of the playoff semifinals .
This figures to be the biggest point spread in the history of the playoff , which would give Alabama the three steepest lines of the era .
Recent history hasn ’ t been kind to Notre Dame when the Irish are within striking distance of a national title @ @ @ @ @ @ @ championship game were inarguably one-sided .
The headline-grabbing point spread is warranted : This is a historically dominant Alabama Crimson Tide , the first SEC team ever to run through a 10-game conference slate unbeaten .
The Tide have by far their worst performing defense in the playoff era ( 77.1 efficiency ) , but they offset it with the most devastating offense the sport has ever seen ( 97.8 efficiency ) — yes , even more dominant than LSU ’ s offense was last season .
Alabama offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian legitimately @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , so it goes without saying that the Tide have done unspeakable things to opposing defenses .
They have put up at least 40 points in 10 of their 11 games and enter this matchup on a three-game streak of 50-plus-point performances .
Notre Dame most recently was held to 10 , its lowest point total since 2018 .
The Irish do boast one of the nation ’ s most talented offensive lines , led by guard Aaron Banks , who is best described as a large human or “ The Dancing Bear.
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ in the history of a school that seemingly always wins .
And this is the best offense that head coach Brian Kelly has had in his tenure by points per drive ( 2.86 ) and drive score percentage ( 47.7 percent ) .
But there is an endless number of question marks for the Irish , most notably whether a defense that isn ’ t elite and whose star player and protector of the back end , Kyle Hamilton , is nursing an ankle sprain has a prayer ’ s chance of keeping @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in check .
Maybe Smith and Mac Jones and Najee Harris will get lost on the way to the stadium .
Maybe Kelly will find a skeleton key in his luggage .
Maybe 2021 will continue to lay waste to expectations in the way 2020 did .
But barring that , the Irish are looking at a rude end to the first season in the team ’ s 114-year history that wasn ’ t played as an independent .
And the Tide are merely looking at another opportunity to do what they have @ @ @ @ @ @

Defenders of the establishment were rewarded again over the holidays by the College Football Playoff. Only those with all of human history as a barometer could have foreseen that even in a batty season in which the Rose Bowl would be played in Texas, the selection committee would shun undefeated Group of Five conference champions Cincinnati, Coastal Carolina and San Jose State.
So it appears that a hearty congratulations is in order for fans of the status quo, as the seventh field in the playoff era will crown another (Power Five) national champion.
[Related: Everything About Sports In 2020 Was Weird … Except Who Won]
Let’s set the table.
No. 2 Clemson (10-1) vs. No. 3 Ohio State (6-0)
Line: Clemson by 7.5
A rematch of last year’s semifinal, the definitively better matchup of the two playoff games features not only two of the top quarterbacks, but two of the top overall prospects in the 2021 draft class: Clemson’s Trevor Lawrence and Ohio State’s Justin Fields.
Lawrence is 34-1 as a starter and — unless he decides to return to school — is almost certain to be the top pick in the upcoming draft, which means he will be a member of the Jacksonville Jaguars organization at this time next year. Fields went vegan over the offseason and was on track to set the all-time single-season record for completion percentage until Northwestern did what it always does: makes things unpleasant for opposing offenses. Fields will have to settle for one of the greatest quarterback seasons in Big Ten history, as defined by Total Quarterback Rating, giving him two of the top three since the metric was introduced in 2004.
Even with ACC all-time leading rusher Travis Etienne in the backfield, Lawrence’s talent is such that Clemson has relied on the pass more (56.9 percent of total snaps) this season than it has in any under head coach Dabo Swinney. Had he not contracted COVID-19, Lawrence likely would have a strong case to be Clemson’s first Heisman Trophy winner — a crying shame, indeed.
[Losing Money Betting On College Football This Year? You’re Not Alone.]
In previous seasons, with outside possession receiver Tee Higgins in the fold, Lawrence aired it out. What’s unique about this season, then, is that Lawrence is seldom being asked to attack downfield.
This was the first season in which offensive coordinator Tony Elliott wasn’t sharing those duties. It has shown. Relative to last season, Lawrence’s air yards per attempt have dropped by almost 16 percent, with his seasonal mark ranked second to last among ACC starters. Much of that was a result of how Elliott designed the offense to maximize space for speedster Amari Rodgers, who has made 52 of his 69 receptions out of the slot, and Etienne, who has set school records for receiving yards this season.
Elliott won’t be calling the plays in the Sugar Bowl; he tested positive for COVID-19 and will be unavailable for the game. But his offensive scheme still figures to be problematic for the Buckeye defense given that Ohio State’s secondary has been repeatedly exposed by shallow crossing routes, as was the case in the team’s narrow win over Indiana. In eight fewer games, Ohio State has equalled last season’s total for passing touchdowns allowed and has allowed more passing yards per game than any defense in the Big Ten. This is the worst Buckeye pass defense of the playoff era by opponent adjusted completion percentage (69.8 percent) and expected points added per game.
Lackluster defense notwithstanding, Ohio State does feature the superior offense, one capable of keeping the Buckeyes in every matchup. Compared with every FBS offense in the playoff era, the 2020 Buckeyes rank eighth in efficiency (93.2).
Fields has the luxury of throwing to Chris Olave, perhaps the Big Ten’s best receiver. Running back Trey Sermon is coming off the greatest rushing performance in Buckeye history. Ohio State will need them both given that Fields will likely have his hands full: The Tigers are first in the nation in Football Outsiders’ standard downs sack rate behind two true freshmen in Bryan Bresee and Myles Murphy on the defensive line.
Swinney certainly feels that Ohio State is undeserving of the meeting, but this figures to be an exciting battle between even teams. ESPN’s Seth Walder pointed out that, according to the Football Power Index, the team strength battle between the two is so thin that the location of the game mattered in picking the favorite.
No. 1 Alabama (11-0) vs. No. 4 Notre Dame (10-1)
Line: Alabama by 20
As is tradition, there’s onslaught potential in one of the playoff semifinals. This figures to be the biggest point spread in the history of the playoff, which would give Alabama the three steepest lines of the era.
[Why Are We Still Returning Kicks In College Football?]
Recent history hasn’t been kind to Notre Dame when the Irish are within striking distance of a national title. The 2018 semifinal and 2012 national championship game were inarguably one-sided.
The headline-grabbing point spread is warranted: This is a historically dominant Alabama Crimson Tide, the first SEC team ever to run through a 10-game conference slate unbeaten. The Tide have by far their worst performing defense in the playoff era (77.1 efficiency), but they offset it with the most devastating offense the sport has ever seen (97.8 efficiency) — yes, even more dominant than LSU’s offense was last season.
Bama is rolling on offense Top 10 FBS offenses of the playoff era (since 2014) by efficiency Season Team Offensive Efficiency 2020 Alabama 97.8 2019 LSU 97.2 2017 Oklahoma 96.6 2018 Oklahoma 96.4 2018 Alabama 95.6 2019 Ohio State 95.3 2019 Alabama 94.4 2020 Ohio State 93.2 2016 Oklahoma 92.2 2014 Oregon 91.3 Offensive efficiency is on a scale of 0-100. 2020 data through games of Dec. 19. Source: ESPN Stats & Information Group
Alabama offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian legitimately has three Heisman candidates at his disposal, so it goes without saying that the Tide have done unspeakable things to opposing defenses. They have put up at least 40 points in 10 of their 11 games and enter this matchup on a three-game streak of 50-plus-point performances. Notre Dame most recently was held to 10, its lowest point total since 2018.
The Irish do boast one of the nation’s most talented offensive lines, led by guard Aaron Banks, who is best described as a large human or “The Dancing Bear.” Ian Book is the winningest quarterback in the history of a school that seemingly always wins. And this is the best offense that head coach Brian Kelly has had in his tenure by points per drive (2.86) and drive score percentage (47.7 percent).
But there is an endless number of question marks for the Irish, most notably whether a defense that isn’t elite and whose star player and protector of the back end, Kyle Hamilton, is nursing an ankle sprain has a prayer’s chance of keeping DeVonta Smith and the vaunted Tide offense in check.
Maybe Smith and Mac Jones and Najee Harris will get lost on the way to the stadium. Maybe Kelly will find a skeleton key in his luggage. Maybe 2021 will continue to lay waste to expectations in the way 2020 did. But barring that, the Irish are looking at a rude end to the first season in the team’s 114-year history that wasn’t played as an independent. And the Tide are merely looking at another opportunity to do what they have done all season: Roll.
What makes LeBron James so great | FiveThirtyEight


fivethirthyeight--2020-12-31--Will The Debate Over $2,000 Stimulus Checks Help Democrats In Georgia?

Congressional Democrats are pushing to give most Americans $ 2,000 stimulus checks , arguing that this is a fast and direct way to help millions of Americans as they struggle with the economic slowdown caused by the COVID-19 pandemic .
President Trump supports $ 2,000 payments , too , but most congressional Republicans don ’ t .
Because of that congressional GOP opposition , the $ 2,000 checks aren ’ t likely to become law .
But Democrats think they have a winning issue electorally ahead of next week ’ s U.S. Senate runoffs in Georgia .
Why many pollsters @ @ @ @ @ @ @ opinion does appear to be on Democrats ’ side .
Seventy-eight percent of Americans said they supported these $ 2,000 stimulus checks , compared to 17 percent who opposed them , according to a poll conducted Dec. 22-28 by the left-leaning Data for Progress .
Similarly , a survey conducted by Business Insider and Survey Monkey on Dec. 21 found that 62 percent of Americans said that the $ 600 stimulus checks adopted in a recent bill is not enough ; 76 percent said the payments should be more than $ 1,000 .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ Isn ’ t That Crazy ] So Democrats are pushing the issue hard .
Georgia Senate candidates Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock have strongly embraced the $ 2,000 payment plan .
Their Republican opponents , Sens .
Kelly Loeffler and David Perdue , are also suggesting that they support the payments .
But Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell is creating procedural roadblocks to stop the $ 2,000 payments from passing the Senate , giving Ossoff and Warnock the opportunity to suggest that Loeffler and Perdue are impediments to the payments , since they @ @ @ @ @ @ @ So this all seems good for the Democrats , right ?
Well , maybe .
Democrats are pushing a popular idea right before what look like very-close elections , and the Republican Party is blocking it .
The issue could well help Warnock and Ossoff in Georgia next week .
But we shouldn ’ t be so sure , for a few reasons … First , it ’ s not clear that voters care that much about policy when deciding who to vote for .
The most reliable predictor of how Americans will @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Republican candidates , and Democratic-leaning voters back Democratic candidates .
Those partisan labels and identities , of course , contain ideological and policy overtones : The Republican Party , rhetorically at least , is warier of big , broad-based spending programs than the Democratic Party .
But those overtones don ’ t seem to drive vote choice .
There are plenty of examples of a party pushing unpopular ideas without its voters switching to the other party .
For instance , the GOP agenda in 2017 and 2018 , trying to repeal Obamacare @ @ @ @ @ @ @ fairly unpopular with Republican voters , but those voters still overwhelmingly backed GOP candidates in the 2018 midterms .
The Data for Progress polling suggests that 73 percent of Republicans nationally support the $ 2,000 payments , including 52 percent who strongly support them .
Based on those numbers , it ’ s almost certainly the case that a majority of Republicans in Georgia support the payments .
Indeed , a DFP poll of Georgia likely voters conducted Nov. 15-20 found that 63 percent of voters in the state said that they would @ @ @ @ @ @ @ who favored a $ 1,200 payment to most Americans as part of a COVID-19 relief package .
That 63 percent number also suggests these payments are broadly popular and getting some backing from rank-and-file GOP voters .
But it ’ s very unlikely that many Republicans will back the Democratic candidates in Georgia because of this issue .
Yes , both elections appear to be close , so even a small shift in voting preferences matters .
But in such a close election , if either Ossoff and Warnock narrowly win , I @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to Democrats ’ support of this stimulus payment and McConnell ’ s opposition , as opposed to factors like Democrats ’ strong get-out-the-vote operations in the state , the weaknesses of Loeffler and Perdue as candidates and the growing liberalism of Georgia .
[ Related : Why Georgia Isn ’ t Like The Other Battleground States ] What about swing voters/independents and other people who aren ’ t necessarily tied to one of the two parties ?
Well , the evidence suggests that these kinds of voters don ’ t necessarily have well-defined @ @ @ @ @ @ @ pay that much attention to politics .
So perhaps this stimulus debate convinces them that Republicans in Washington need to be dethroned .
Alternatively , perhaps these voters aren ’ t as tuned into this stimulus debate as much as , say , Loeffler ’ s ads casting Warnock as a radical or Warnock ’ s ads portraying himself as a nice dog owner .
Second , voters may like Democratic economic ideas more than Democrats themselves .
Over the last several years , ballot initiatives to increase the minimum wage and to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ where GOP state legislators and governors had blocked similar policies .
But Republicans are still winning elections in these areas .
This happened in Florida this year .
A proposal to gradually increase the minimum wage to $ 15 per hour by 2026 passed in the Sunshine State , with 61 percent of voters embracing it .
But Joe Biden , who strongly supports a $ 15 minimum wage , won only 48 percent of the vote in Florida , compared to 51 percent for Trump , who has been more circumspect about @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are another illustration that partisanship overrides — or is simply independent from — voters ’ policy preferences , but there are other potential reasons for this disconnect .
Voters may support certain economically populist ideas but may be wary of too much economic populism if they elect a Democratic candidate .
Some voters may support Democrats ’ economic populism but not back the party because it is too progressive on issues like abortion rights or policing .
For example , in the 2016 election , Lee Drutman , a scholar at New America @ @ @ @ @ @ @ voters who lean conservative on issues like immigration but who lean left on economic issues were more likely to back Trump than Hillary Clinton .
And lastly , many voters are simply not attuned to which party or candidate favors which policies .
When you bring this to Georgia , you could easily imagine some swing voters who support $ 2,000 payments to Americans but are even more supportive of backing the GOP Senate candidates and ensuring that Democrats in Washington don ’ t have control of the White House and both chambers @ @ @ @ @ @ @ scrambled the politics on stimulus checks .
You could also imagine some voters are just confused about this issue .
If Trump strongly supports the $ 2,000 checks and Loeffler and Perdue are indicating support for them , too , it might not be totally clear to voters that the broader Republican Party still opposes the payments and is the roadblock to them being approved .
Particularly in this lame-duck period for Trump , McConnell is the most important Republican in Washington in terms of policy .
But Trump remains the defining figure @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in an electoral context .
If Trump is declaring he supports the $ 2,000 payments , voters in Georgia might conclude that Republicans more broadly support them , even as McConnell is blocking the payments and Loeffler and Perdue are effectively helping him do so , as is the case here .
[ What The Early Vote In Georgia Can — And Can ’ t — Tell Us ] All that said , this debate about the direct payments coinciding with the Georgia election has shown how electoral politics and governance intersect in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ clear if the debate over the stimulus payments will affect the election results , it is clear that the upcoming election has affected the stimulus debate .
Republicans were reportedly worried about opposing direct payments on the eve of the Georgia race , helping ensure that $ 600 for most Americans was put into the COVID-19 economic stimulus that Trump signed into law on Sunday .
Republicans are now worried about a potential electoral backlash in Georgia from opposing the $ 2,000 payments .
Those electoral concerns have resulted in Loeffler and Perdue @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , breaking with McConnell and other Republicans to publicly support the payments .
( Of course , Loeffler and Perdue are likely to go along with McConnell ’ s strategies to make sure the $ 2,000 payments don ’ t become law . )
So Democrats may have figured out how to get more populist policies adopted : Push them around election time .
But even if Ossoff and Warnock win next week , the evidence that popular economic policies are automatically electoral boosts for Democrats will be somewhat weak .
What the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ come

Perry Bacon Jr. (perry.bacon@fivethirtyeight.com)

Will The Debate Over $2,000 Stimulus Checks Help Democrats In Georgia? The policy is broadly popular, but that doesn’t mean it will affect vote choice.
Congressional Democrats are pushing to give most Americans $2,000 stimulus checks, arguing that this is a fast and direct way to help millions of Americans as they struggle with the economic slowdown caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. President Trump supports $2,000 payments, too, but most congressional Republicans don’t. Because of that congressional GOP opposition, the $2,000 checks aren’t likely to become law. But Democrats think they have a winning issue electorally ahead of next week’s U.S. Senate runoffs in Georgia.
Why many pollsters are sitting out the Georgia runoffs
Public opinion does appear to be on Democrats’ side. Seventy-eight percent of Americans said they supported these $2,000 stimulus checks, compared to 17 percent who opposed them, according to a poll conducted Dec. 22-28 by the left-leaning Data for Progress. Similarly, a survey conducted by Business Insider and Survey Monkey on Dec. 21 found that 62 percent of Americans said that the $600 stimulus checks adopted in a recent bill is not enough; 76 percent said the payments should be more than $1,000.
[Why A Split Verdict In Georgia Isn’t That Crazy]
So Democrats are pushing the issue hard. Georgia Senate candidates Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock have strongly embraced the $2,000 payment plan. Their Republican opponents, Sens. Kelly Loeffler and David Perdue, are also suggesting that they support the payments. But Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell is creating procedural roadblocks to stop the $2,000 payments from passing the Senate, giving Ossoff and Warnock the opportunity to suggest that Loeffler and Perdue are impediments to the payments, since they back McConnell continuing as majority leader.
So this all seems good for the Democrats, right? Well, maybe. Democrats are pushing a popular idea right before what look like very-close elections, and the Republican Party is blocking it. The issue could well help Warnock and Ossoff in Georgia next week. But we shouldn’t be so sure, for a few reasons …
First, it’s not clear that voters care that much about policy when deciding who to vote for.
The most reliable predictor of how Americans will vote is partisanship: Republican-leaning voters back Republican candidates, and Democratic-leaning voters back Democratic candidates. Those partisan labels and identities, of course, contain ideological and policy overtones: The Republican Party, rhetorically at least, is warier of big, broad-based spending programs than the Democratic Party. But those overtones don’t seem to drive vote choice. There are plenty of examples of a party pushing unpopular ideas without its voters switching to the other party. For instance, the GOP agenda in 2017 and 2018, trying to repeal Obamacare and cut taxes for corporations, was fairly unpopular with Republican voters, but those voters still overwhelmingly backed GOP candidates in the 2018 midterms.
The Data for Progress polling suggests that 73 percent of Republicans nationally support the $2,000 payments, including 52 percent who strongly support them. Based on those numbers, it’s almost certainly the case that a majority of Republicans in Georgia support the payments. Indeed, a DFP poll of Georgia likely voters conducted Nov. 15-20 found that 63 percent of voters in the state said that they would be more likely to support a candidate who favored a $1,200 payment to most Americans as part of a COVID-19 relief package. That 63 percent number also suggests these payments are broadly popular and getting some backing from rank-and-file GOP voters.
But it’s very unlikely that many Republicans will back the Democratic candidates in Georgia because of this issue. Yes, both elections appear to be close, so even a small shift in voting preferences matters. But in such a close election, if either Ossoff and Warnock narrowly win, I would be hesitant to ascribe that victory to Democrats’ support of this stimulus payment and McConnell’s opposition, as opposed to factors like Democrats’ strong get-out-the-vote operations in the state, the weaknesses of Loeffler and Perdue as candidates and the growing liberalism of Georgia.
[Related: Why Georgia Isn’t Like The Other Battleground States]
What about swing voters/independents and other people who aren’t necessarily tied to one of the two parties? Well, the evidence suggests that these kinds of voters don’t necessarily have well-defined policy preferences and also don’t pay that much attention to politics. So perhaps this stimulus debate convinces them that Republicans in Washington need to be dethroned. Alternatively, perhaps these voters aren’t as tuned into this stimulus debate as much as, say, Loeffler’s ads casting Warnock as a radical or Warnock’s ads portraying himself as a nice dog owner.
Second, voters may like Democratic economic ideas more than Democrats themselves.
Over the last several years, ballot initiatives to increase the minimum wage and to expand Medicaid have passed in conservative-leaning states where GOP state legislators and governors had blocked similar policies. But Republicans are still winning elections in these areas. This happened in Florida this year. A proposal to gradually increase the minimum wage to $15 per hour by 2026 passed in the Sunshine State, with 61 percent of voters embracing it. But Joe Biden, who strongly supports a $15 minimum wage, won only 48 percent of the vote in Florida, compared to 51 percent for Trump, who has been more circumspect about minimum wage increases.
These voting patterns are another illustration that partisanship overrides — or is simply independent from — voters’ policy preferences, but there are other potential reasons for this disconnect. Voters may support certain economically populist ideas but may be wary of too much economic populism if they elect a Democratic candidate. Some voters may support Democrats’ economic populism but not back the party because it is too progressive on issues like abortion rights or policing. For example, in the 2016 election, Lee Drutman, a scholar at New America and a FiveThirtyEight contributor, found that voters who lean conservative on issues like immigration but who lean left on economic issues were more likely to back Trump than Hillary Clinton. And lastly, many voters are simply not attuned to which party or candidate favors which policies.
When you bring this to Georgia, you could easily imagine some swing voters who support $2,000 payments to Americans but are even more supportive of backing the GOP Senate candidates and ensuring that Democrats in Washington don’t have control of the White House and both chambers of Congress.
Finally, Trump has scrambled the politics on stimulus checks.
You could also imagine some voters are just confused about this issue. If Trump strongly supports the $2,000 checks and Loeffler and Perdue are indicating support for them, too, it might not be totally clear to voters that the broader Republican Party still opposes the payments and is the roadblock to them being approved. Particularly in this lame-duck period for Trump, McConnell is the most important Republican in Washington in terms of policy. But Trump remains the defining figure for the party to most voters and in an electoral context. If Trump is declaring he supports the $2,000 payments, voters in Georgia might conclude that Republicans more broadly support them, even as McConnell is blocking the payments and Loeffler and Perdue are effectively helping him do so, as is the case here.
[What The Early Vote In Georgia Can — And Can’t — Tell Us]
All that said, this debate about the direct payments coinciding with the Georgia election has shown how electoral politics and governance intersect in interesting ways. While it is not clear if the debate over the stimulus payments will affect the election results, it is clear that the upcoming election has affected the stimulus debate. Republicans were reportedly worried about opposing direct payments on the eve of the Georgia race, helping ensure that $600 for most Americans was put into the COVID-19 economic stimulus that Trump signed into law on Sunday. Republicans are now worried about a potential electoral backlash in Georgia from opposing the $2,000 payments. Those electoral concerns have resulted in Loeffler and Perdue, who usually take more conservative stands, breaking with McConnell and other Republicans to publicly support the payments. (Of course, Loeffler and Perdue are likely to go along with McConnell’s strategies to make sure the $2,000 payments don’t become law.)
So Democrats may have figured out how to get more populist policies adopted: Push them around election time. But even if Ossoff and Warnock win next week, the evidence that popular economic policies are automatically electoral boosts for Democrats will be somewhat weak.
What the COVID-19 vaccine means for political battles to come