fivethirthyeight--2020-09-09--An Expensive Goalie Is Not Your Ticket To The Stanley Cup

We all know that a strong performance from a goaltender is crucial for Stanley Cup playoff success .
But shelling out the most money for a goaltender might not be the answer .
As we are well into the third round of the National Hockey League ’ s pandemic postseason , we ’ ve seen less and less star power in net .
Montreal Canadiens goaltender Carey Price , the league ’ s highest paid at his position over the past two seasons , turned in an all-world performance in the Toronto bubble this summer , but he and his @ @ @ @ @ @ @ get the team past the Philadelphia Flyers in the first round .
Most of the league ’ s highest-paid goaltenders have been watching the bulk of the playoffs from home .
The goalies who did make it out of the first round — the Jacob Markstroms , Pavel Francouzes and Anton Khudobins of the world — earn much less than goalies like Price , Sergei Bobrovsky and even the 38-year-old Henrik Lundqvist .
Tuukka Rask could have made it to the second round with his Boston Bruins had he not opted out of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ first round .
Instead , he joins our list of expensive goaltenders who didn ’ t make it past the first round of the playoffs , or didn ’ t make the postseason at all , despite their salaries .
The salaries of goalies who did advance to the second round look very different .
Vegas Golden Knights goaltender Marc-Andre Fleury is the highest-paid at his position left in this year ’ s playoffs , but through most of the playoffs , he has played backup to lesser-paid netminder Robin Lehner ( though @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in Game 1 of the Western Conference finals . )
Lehner , who was acquired by Vegas from Chicago ahead of the NHL ’ s trade deadline in February , has earned the majority of his team ’ s starts throughout the postseason .
“ Robin has done what you want players to do when they show up with a new team , ” Golden Knights head coach Pete DeBoer told The Athletic .
“ He has played at a level , not just in games but also through camp , where we @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
This is not about [ Fleury ] not doing something .
He has been great .
Robin has just been at a different level.
” This isn ’ t the first time Fleury has had to ride the pine behind a lesser-paid goalie .
When the Penguins faced off against the San Jose Sharks in the 2016 Stanley Cup Final , the team opted for a hotter hand in Matt Murray — who was making $ 667,500 .
Fleury was in the first year of a four-year , $ 23 million deal @ @ @ @ @ @ @ season .
It ’ s not uncommon for a cheaper goalie — relative both to his backup and the rest of the league — to catch fire in the playoffs .
But even when established , well-paid players remain as their teams ’ starters and make a deep run in the playoffs , many have found themselves losing the Final against a less-expensive option .
Since the 2004-05 lockout , only one goalie has won the Stanley Cup as the league ’ s highest-paid player at that position : Los Angeles Kings goaltender @ @ @ @ @ @ @ expense of Lundqvist and his New York Rangers .
In that same span of time , Quick and Luongo were the only goaltenders to make the Stanley Cup Final as the highest-paid goaltenders in the league .
On the flip side , NHL teams have often shown that they can achieve success with lower-paid options in goal .
Consider the most recent champion , the St. Louis Blues .
The team went on a run that saw them defeat the Boston Bruins in the 2019 Stanley Cup Final .
Jordan Binnington split time @ @ @ @ @ @ @ League affiliate , the San Antonio Rampage , before becoming St. Louis ’ s top goaltending option in the playoffs .
His starts came at the expense of Jake Allen , who made $ 4.4 million that season .
Take , for example , the first Stanley Cup Final after the 2005 lockout , between the Edmonton Oilers and Carolina Hurricanes .
The Oilers turned to Dwayne Roloson to start the series , but when an injury forced him out of the net in Game 1 , the Oilers relied mostly on backup @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that season .
But Markkanen , who helped the team reach Game 7 in that year ’ s Final , was still earning more than Cam Ward , goaltender for the eventual champion Hurricanes .
Ward made $ 684,000 in 2005-06 and himself began the playoffs as a backup to Martin Gerber , who earned over $ 1 million that season .
And consider the 2010 Stanley Cup Final between Philadelphia and Chicago , which featured two starting goalies making less than $ 1 million .
Michael Leighton , who was making $ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Flyers over Brian Boucher , who was earning $ 925,000 that season .
On the other side , Antti Niemi , who started all six games for the champion Blackhawks , was making much less ( $ 826,875 ) than backup Cristobal Huet ( $ 5.6 million ) .
Will this trend change how general managers spend on goaltenders ?
Lately , that hasn ’ t seemed to be the case .
Bobrovsky , the Florida Panthers ’ starting goaltender , just finished the first year of a seven-year , $ 70 million @ @ @ @ @ @ @ million dollar cap hit each year through 2026 .
Also in 2019 , the Tampa Bay Lightning ’ s Andrei Vasilevskiy signed an eight-year extension worth $ 76 million — with a cap hit of $ 9.5 million per year starting next season and going until the end of his contract .
As of now , the $ 12 million in salary he ’ s set to make during the 2020-21 season will be tied for fifth-most among NHL players .
Teams know they need to invest in a quality goaltender to lead @ @ @ @ @ @ @ recent history suggests that investment doesn ’ t have to be the highest dollar figure to get them the Cup .
In fact , paying top dollar for a netminder may not help at all .

We all know that a strong performance from a goaltender is crucial for Stanley Cup playoff success. But shelling out the most money for a goaltender might not be the answer.
As we are well into the third round of the National Hockey League’s pandemic postseason, we’ve seen less and less star power in net. Montreal Canadiens goaltender Carey Price, the league’s highest paid at his position over the past two seasons, turned in an all-world performance in the Toronto bubble this summer, but he and his $15 million salary couldn’t get the team past the Philadelphia Flyers in the first round.
Most of the league’s highest-paid goaltenders have been watching the bulk of the playoffs from home. The goalies who did make it out of the first round — the Jacob Markstroms, Pavel Francouzes and Anton Khudobins of the world — earn much less than goalies like Price, Sergei Bobrovsky and even the 38-year-old Henrik Lundqvist.
Most of the highest-paid goalies are already home NHL goalies making at least $5 million during the 2019-20 season with their playoff outcomes PLAYER TEAM PLAYOFF OUTCOME SALARY Carey Price Canadiens Round 1 loss $15.00m Sergei Bobrovsky Panthers Qualifiers loss 11.50 Marc-Andre Fleury Golden Knights Conference finals 8.50 Henrik Lundqvist Rangers Qualifiers loss 7.00 Jonathan Quick Kings No bubble 7.00 Martin Jones Sharks No bubble 6.75 Tuukka Rask Bruins Left in Round 1 6.50 John Gibson Ducks No bubble 6.40 Connor Hellebuyck Jets Qualifiers loss 6.00 Semyon Varlamov Islanders Conference finals 6.00 Pekka Rinne Predators Qualifiers loss 6.00 Cory Schneider Devils No bubble 6.00 Ben Bishop Stars Conference finals 5.50 Jake Allen Blues Round 1 loss 5.20 Mikko Koskinen Oilers Qualifiers loss 5.20 Frederik Andersen Maple Leafs Qualifiers loss 5.00 Robin Lehner Golden Knights Conference finals 5.00 Corey Crawford Blackhawks Round 1 loss 5.00 Braden Holtby Capitals Round 1 loss 5.00 Antti Raanta Coyotes Round 1 loss 5.00 Bolded goalies are still playing in this year’s Stanley Cup Playoffs. Sources: Hockey-Reference.com, CapFriendly
Tuukka Rask could have made it to the second round with his Boston Bruins had he not opted out of the postseason after two games in the first round. Instead, he joins our list of expensive goaltenders who didn’t make it past the first round of the playoffs, or didn’t make the postseason at all, despite their salaries.
The salaries of goalies who did advance to the second round look very different.
The goalies who made it past Round 1 aren’t making as much NHL goalies who played at least one game in the second round of the 2020 Stanley Cup playoffs, by salary for the 2019-20 season Player Team Playoff outcome Salary Marc-Andre Fleury Golden Knights Conference finals $8.50m Semyon Varlamov Islanders Conference finals 6.00 Ben Bishop Stars Conference finals 5.50 Robin Lehner Golden Knights Conference finals 5.00 Jacob Markstrom Canucks Round 2 loss 4.00 Andrei Vasilevskiy Lightning Conference finals 4.00 Philipp Grubauer Avalanche Round 2 loss 3.90 Thomas Greiss Islanders Conference finals 3.75 Anton Khudobin Stars Conference finals 2.50 Jaroslav Halak Bruins Round 2 loss 2.25 Brian Elliott Flyers Round 2 loss 2.00 Pavel Francouz Avalanche Round 2 loss 0.95 Thatcher Demko Canucks Round 2 loss 0.90 Carter Hart Flyers Round 2 loss 0.70 Michael Hutchinson Avalanche Round 2 loss 0.70 Daniel Vladar Bruins Round 2 loss 0.70 Sources: Hockey-Reference.com, CapFriendly
Vegas Golden Knights goaltender Marc-Andre Fleury is the highest-paid at his position left in this year’s playoffs, but through most of the playoffs, he has played backup to lesser-paid netminder Robin Lehner (though Fleury did get the start for Vegas in Game 1 of the Western Conference finals.) Lehner, who was acquired by Vegas from Chicago ahead of the NHL’s trade deadline in February, has earned the majority of his team’s starts throughout the postseason.
“Robin has done what you want players to do when they show up with a new team,” Golden Knights head coach Pete DeBoer told The Athletic. “He has played at a level, not just in games but also through camp, where we have had to give him the net. This is not about [Fleury] not doing something. He has been great. Robin has just been at a different level.”
This isn’t the first time Fleury has had to ride the pine behind a lesser-paid goalie. When the Penguins faced off against the San Jose Sharks in the 2016 Stanley Cup Final, the team opted for a hotter hand in Matt Murray — who was making $667,500. Fleury was in the first year of a four-year, $23 million deal that paid him $5.8 million that season.
It’s not uncommon for a cheaper goalie — relative both to his backup and the rest of the league — to catch fire in the playoffs. But even when established, well-paid players remain as their teams’ starters and make a deep run in the playoffs, many have found themselves losing the Final against a less-expensive option. Since the 2004-05 lockout, only one goalie has won the Stanley Cup as the league’s highest-paid player at that position: Los Angeles Kings goaltender Jonathan Quick in 2014, at the expense of Lundqvist and his New York Rangers. In that same span of time, Quick and Luongo were the only goaltenders to make the Stanley Cup Final as the highest-paid goaltenders in the league.
Lesser-paid goalies have won more often than not Goalies who started Game 1 of the Stanley Cup Final since 2006 (with winners in bold), by salary rank among all NHL goaltenders Year Goalie Team Salary Rank 2019 Jordan Binnington Blues $650.0k 130 Tuukka Rask Bruins 7,000.0 6 2018 Braden Holtby Capitals 7,000.0 5 Marc-Andre Fleury Golden Knights 5,750.0 13 2017 Matt Murray Penguins 575.0 124 Pekka Rinne Predators 7,000.0 6 2016 Matt Murray Penguins 667.5 87 Martin Jones Sharks 3,000.0 28 2015 Corey Crawford Blackhawks 6,500.0 8 Ben Bishop Lightning 2,400.0 29 2014 Jonathan Quick Kings 7,000.0 1 Henrik Lundqvist Rangers 5,125.0 11 2013 Corey Crawford Blackhawks 2,250.0 24 Tuukka Rask Bruins 3,500.0 16 2012 Jonathan Quick Kings 1,800.0 26 Martin Brodeur Devils 5,200.0 9 2011 Tim Thomas Bruins 6,000.0 8 Roberto Luongo Canucks 10,000.0 1 2010 Antti Niemi Blackhawks 826.9 45 Michael Leighton Flyers 600.0 65 2009 Marc-Andre Fleury Penguins 3,500.0 13 Chris Osgood Red Wings 1,700.0 21 2008 Chris Osgood Red Wings 800.0 36 Marc-Andre Fleury Penguins 1,600.0 18 2007 Jean-Sebastien Giguere Ducks 3,990.0 10 Ray Emery Senators 925.0 38 2006 Cam Ward Hurricanes 684.0 42 Dwayne Roloson Oilers 1,672.0 19 Sources: CapFriendly.com, HockeyNut, HockeyZonePlus, NHLPA
On the flip side, NHL teams have often shown that they can achieve success with lower-paid options in goal. Consider the most recent champion, the St. Louis Blues. The team went on a run that saw them defeat the Boston Bruins in the 2019 Stanley Cup Final. Jordan Binnington split time between the Blues and their American Hockey League affiliate, the San Antonio Rampage, before becoming St. Louis’s top goaltending option in the playoffs. His starts came at the expense of Jake Allen, who made $4.4 million that season.
Take, for example, the first Stanley Cup Final after the 2005 lockout, between the Edmonton Oilers and Carolina Hurricanes. The Oilers turned to Dwayne Roloson to start the series, but when an injury forced him out of the net in Game 1, the Oilers relied mostly on backup Jussi Markkanen, who made $850,000 that season. But Markkanen, who helped the team reach Game 7 in that year’s Final, was still earning more than Cam Ward, goaltender for the eventual champion Hurricanes. Ward made $684,000 in 2005-06 and himself began the playoffs as a backup to Martin Gerber, who earned over $1 million that season.
And consider the 2010 Stanley Cup Final between Philadelphia and Chicago, which featured two starting goalies making less than $1 million. Michael Leighton, who was making $600,000, started the series for the Flyers over Brian Boucher, who was earning $925,000 that season. On the other side, Antti Niemi, who started all six games for the champion Blackhawks, was making much less ($826,875) than backup Cristobal Huet ($5.6 million).
Will this trend change how general managers spend on goaltenders? Lately, that hasn’t seemed to be the case.
Bobrovsky, the Florida Panthers’ starting goaltender, just finished the first year of a seven-year, $70 million contract, which carries a $10 million dollar cap hit each year through 2026. Also in 2019, the Tampa Bay Lightning’s Andrei Vasilevskiy signed an eight-year extension worth $76 million — with a cap hit of $9.5 million per year starting next season and going until the end of his contract. As of now, the $12 million in salary he’s set to make during the 2020-21 season will be tied for fifth-most among NHL players.
Teams know they need to invest in a quality goaltender to lead them to the promised land. But recent history suggests that investment doesn’t have to be the highest dollar figure to get them the Cup. In fact, paying top dollar for a netminder may not help at all.


fivethirthyeight--2020-09-09--The Bucks Played It Safe And Made The Wrong Kind Of History

Now that it ’ s over , let ’ s be clear about what we just saw : The Miami Heat ’ s series win over the Milwaukee Bucks was more than a stunner .
It was perhaps the most lopsided upset in the history of the NBA playoffs .
For good reason , the Bucks were expected to make a serious run at a title .
For much of the year , they were on a dominant , 70-win pace , boasting the league ’ s best defense and a soon-to-be two-time MVP who has been compared to a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ how unstoppable he is inside the paint .
Yet it all came crashing down .
Again .
Last year ’ s conference finals loss , after Milwaukee jumped out to a 2-0 lead over Toronto , was surprising .
But at the same time , those Bucks ran into a robot-led buzzsaw .
Plus , a title might have been asking too much , too soon from the club , which had gone almost 20 years without so much as a playoff series win .
Being ushered out an entire round sooner — @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , and as the favorite — deserves far greater scrutiny .
And when put under the microscope , this series was one for the history books .
Never before had an NBA club with such a vast winning-percentage deficit — Miami won 60 percent of its games ; the Bucks won almost 77 percent of theirs — won a best-of-seven series in five games or fewer .
At least until now .
There were many circumstances that may have contributed to Milwaukee ’ s hasty exit : Giannis Antetokounmpo ’ s injury in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 4 , the oddity of the bubble , the team ’ s focus amid the strike for racial justice it led a few weeks back .
But the easiest thing to pinpoint is the sheer matchup problem Miami presented .
If last year seemed frustrating , with trying to score on the Raptors ’ Kawhi Leonard , Danny Green and Pascal Siakam , this series was just as challenging — if not worse .
Getting by defenders like Jimmy Butler , Jae Crowder , Bam Adebayo and Andre Iguodala was never going to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ abundance of long , rangy stoppers allowed them to throw multiple bodies on Milwaukee ’ s two best players , Antetokounmpo and Khris Middleton .
The Heat aggressively walled off the paint with those bodies , and their ability to quickly send help when Giannis did see daylight was an enormous factor in the series .
( Last year , Toronto gave up 0.84 points per Bucks drive when a help defender was present , per Second Spectrum .
Miami was even stingier in this series , surrendering just 0.83 points per drive @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Erik Spoelstra deserves credit for having his club fully prepared to take away one of the Bucks ’ bread-and-butter plays — the Giannis-Middleton pick and roll , which Milwaukee used to throttle Miami during the regular season .
By contrast , it took Bucks coach Mike Budenholzer too long to make what seemed like easy adjustments in the series .
The most obvious , which undoubtedly infuriated Milwaukee fans : his seemingly hard-line approach toward how many minutes he would allow his relatively young stars to play , saying he didn ’ t @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the 40-minute mark .
( Two ironies here : First , that the Raptors — in a 2-0 hole — dramatically regained momentum in their series after giving three of their best players extended minutes .
Second , the Bucks themselves finally squeezed out a win in Game 4 after Middleton , who was forced into playing hero ball for a change , and two other starters logged 40 minutes or more in an overtime victory . )
But the schematic differences , and the slowness with which Budenholzer reacted , might have @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Miami was always going to be a tough cover for the Bucks , given how Milwaukee orchestrates its drop defense with Brook Lopez .
Yet early on , the club needlessly had its guards going over screens to defend a poor jump-shooter in Butler — something that made a drop scheme harder to run properly .
And as Miami cashed in on the Bucks ’ coverage — the Heat took 40 triples a game and hit on a respectable 37 percent of them — Budenholzer waited a bit too long and seemed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ having his defenders switch the Heat ’ s pick and rolls .
Then there was the Milwaukee offense , which now has a clear answer to “ Do we really need Malcolm Brogdon ?
” — an answer that we ’ ve said for a while now might not become clear until the games were worth a bit more .
The Heat essentially opted to sell out in hopes of slowing Antetokounmpo down .
In Game 1 , that resulted in Giannis scoring just 18 points on 12 shots , while the Bucks @ @ @ @ @ @ @ including Antetokounmpo ’ s 2-of-5 from three ) .
But when Giannis bounced back with 29 points in Game 2 , the outside shooting ( 7-of-25 ) cooled off considerably , leaving the club in a 2-0 hole .
It blew Game 3 with a historically bad fourth quarter .
And even when the Bucks won a battle in Game 4 , they ultimately lost the war when Antetokounmpo left after tweaking the ankle again .
What haunted Milwaukee , among other things , was starting point guard Eric Bledsoe ’ s inability @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a series when a defense is banking on just that .
Bledsoe , whose role became even more important in the wake of the team deciding not to keep the well-rounded Brogdon last summer , shot 18 percent ( 4-for-22 ) on jumpers in this series , according to Second Spectrum .
You may recall that he had a brutal performance in the Raptors ’ series last season , too , when he shot just 24 percent ( 9-of-37 ) on such attempts .
For how solid Bledsoe was in the regular season @ @ @ @ @ @ @ can be , there ’ s a fair argument to be made that he ’ s simply not a consistently strong enough offensive player to go forward with in postseasons .
The name you ’ ll hear thrown around as a possibility to replace him is Chris Paul , who has a pricey deal but is on an Oklahoma City team that may be ready to fully pivot toward its youth movement .
Truth be told , given the precarious nature of Antetokounmpo ’ s future — he can become an unrestricted free @ @ @ @ @ @ @ everything should be on the table .
For more than a year now , we ’ ve watched this Bucks team handle things conservatively : from letting Brogdon go , to its loose drop scheme with Lopez , to not having the Defensive Player of the Year defend a 40-point scorer down the stretch , even down to its minute allocations for a 25-year-old .
But with the ultimate “ prove it ” year coming up , it might be time for Milwaukee to take a significant swing .
The last thing the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ strike out looking .

Now that it’s over, let’s be clear about what we just saw: The Miami Heat’s series win over the Milwaukee Bucks was more than a stunner. It was perhaps the most lopsided upset in the history of the NBA playoffs.
For good reason, the Bucks were expected to make a serious run at a title. For much of the year, they were on a dominant, 70-win pace, boasting the league’s best defense and a soon-to-be two-time MVP who has been compared to a modern-day wing version of Shaq because of how unstoppable he is inside the paint.
Yet it all came crashing down. Again.
Last year’s conference finals loss, after Milwaukee jumped out to a 2-0 lead over Toronto, was surprising. But at the same time, those Bucks ran into a robot-led buzzsaw. Plus, a title might have been asking too much, too soon from the club, which had gone almost 20 years without so much as a playoff series win.
Being ushered out an entire round sooner — in a five-game gentleman’s sweep, and as the favorite — deserves far greater scrutiny. And when put under the microscope, this series was one for the history books. Never before had an NBA club with such a vast winning-percentage deficit — Miami won 60 percent of its games; the Bucks won almost 77 percent of theirs — won a best-of-seven series in five games or fewer. At least until now.
There were many circumstances that may have contributed to Milwaukee’s hasty exit: Giannis Antetokounmpo’s injury in Game 3 and ugly reaggravation in Game 4, the oddity of the bubble, the team’s focus amid the strike for racial justice it led a few weeks back. But the easiest thing to pinpoint is the sheer matchup problem Miami presented.
If last year seemed frustrating, with trying to score on the Raptors’ Kawhi Leonard, Danny Green and Pascal Siakam, this series was just as challenging — if not worse. Getting by defenders like Jimmy Butler, Jae Crowder, Bam Adebayo and Andre Iguodala was never going to be easy. The Heat’s abundance of long, rangy stoppers allowed them to throw multiple bodies on Milwaukee’s two best players, Antetokounmpo and Khris Middleton. The Heat aggressively walled off the paint with those bodies, and their ability to quickly send help when Giannis did see daylight was an enormous factor in the series. (Last year, Toronto gave up 0.84 points per Bucks drive when a help defender was present, per Second Spectrum. Miami was even stingier in this series, surrendering just 0.83 points per drive in those cases.)
Heat coach Erik Spoelstra deserves credit for having his club fully prepared to take away one of the Bucks’ bread-and-butter plays — the Giannis-Middleton pick and roll, which Milwaukee used to throttle Miami during the regular season.
By contrast, it took Bucks coach Mike Budenholzer too long to make what seemed like easy adjustments in the series. The most obvious, which undoubtedly infuriated Milwaukee fans: his seemingly hard-line approach toward how many minutes he would allow his relatively young stars to play, saying he didn’t want to push them near or above the 40-minute mark. (Two ironies here: First, that the Raptors — in a 2-0 hole — dramatically regained momentum in their series after giving three of their best players extended minutes. Second, the Bucks themselves finally squeezed out a win in Game 4 after Middleton, who was forced into playing hero ball for a change, and two other starters logged 40 minutes or more in an overtime victory.)
But the schematic differences, and the slowness with which Budenholzer reacted, might have been more meaningful than the minute allocations. Miami was always going to be a tough cover for the Bucks, given how Milwaukee orchestrates its drop defense with Brook Lopez. Yet early on, the club needlessly had its guards going over screens to defend a poor jump-shooter in Butler — something that made a drop scheme harder to run properly. And as Miami cashed in on the Bucks’ coverage — the Heat took 40 triples a game and hit on a respectable 37 percent of them — Budenholzer waited a bit too long and seemed to commit a bit too half-heartedly to having his defenders switch the Heat’s pick and rolls.
Then there was the Milwaukee offense, which now has a clear answer to “Do we really need Malcolm Brogdon?” — an answer that we’ve said for a while now might not become clear until the games were worth a bit more.
The Heat essentially opted to sell out in hopes of slowing Antetokounmpo down. In Game 1, that resulted in Giannis scoring just 18 points on 12 shots, while the Bucks’ perimeter shooters feasted (16-of-35, including Antetokounmpo’s 2-of-5 from three). But when Giannis bounced back with 29 points in Game 2, the outside shooting (7-of-25) cooled off considerably, leaving the club in a 2-0 hole. It blew Game 3 with a historically bad fourth quarter. And even when the Bucks won a battle in Game 4, they ultimately lost the war when Antetokounmpo left after tweaking the ankle again.
What haunted Milwaukee, among other things, was starting point guard Eric Bledsoe’s inability to shoot — an absolute killer in a series when a defense is banking on just that. Bledsoe, whose role became even more important in the wake of the team deciding not to keep the well-rounded Brogdon last summer, shot 18 percent (4-for-22) on jumpers in this series, according to Second Spectrum. You may recall that he had a brutal performance in the Raptors’ series last season, too, when he shot just 24 percent (9-of-37) on such attempts.
For how solid Bledsoe was in the regular season, and despite how special his defense can be, there’s a fair argument to be made that he’s simply not a consistently strong enough offensive player to go forward with in postseasons. The name you’ll hear thrown around as a possibility to replace him is Chris Paul, who has a pricey deal but is on an Oklahoma City team that may be ready to fully pivot toward its youth movement.
Truth be told, given the precarious nature of Antetokounmpo’s future — he can become an unrestricted free agent after next season — just about everything should be on the table.
For more than a year now, we’ve watched this Bucks team handle things conservatively: from letting Brogdon go, to its loose drop scheme with Lopez, to not having the Defensive Player of the Year defend a 40-point scorer down the stretch, even down to its minute allocations for a 25-year-old. But with the ultimate “prove it” year coming up, it might be time for Milwaukee to take a significant swing. The last thing the Bucks can afford to do now is strike out looking.
Neil Paine contributed research.


fivethirthyeight--2020-09-09--States That Are Not Normally Competitive Are Competitive In 2020

In this week ’ s FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast , the crew discuss which states could be competitive in the 2020 @ @ @ @ @ you another segment of “ good use or bad use of polling ?
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States That Are Not Normally Competitive Are Competitive In 2020
In this week’s FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the crew discuss which states could be competitive in the 2020 election. And we bring you another segment of “good use or bad use of polling?”


fivethirthyeight--2020-09-08--A Big Chunk Of People Of Color And White People With Degrees Are Behind Trump

The overarching story of recent American elections is that 1 ) voters of color , who have long been Democratic-leaning , are a growing share of the electorate ; 2 ) white voters with college degrees are increasingly shifting to the Democrats ; and 3 ) white voters without degrees are aligning more with the GOP .
But those trends , because they get so much focus , can warp our understanding of the electorate as it exists right now .
Demographics are not yet destiny in American elections — millions of people don ’ t align with the party @ @ @ @ @ @ @ predict .
Case in point : In 2016 , more than a third of President Trump ’ s support nationally came from non-Hispanic white Americans with college degrees ( 26 percent ) and Asian , Black and Hispanic voters ( 12 percent ) , according to Pew Research Center data .
On the flip side , about a quarter of Hillary Clinton ’ s supporters were non-Hispanic white Americans without degrees .
White Americans without degrees aren ’ t as likely to vote for Trump as in 2016 , according to polls — @ @ @ @ @ @ @ national polls and key swing states like Pennsylvania .
But a big reason Trump could still win the Electoral College , despite the poor marks Americans give him for his handling of COVID-19 and his job performance overall , is that the Black , Hispanic and college-educated white voters who backed him in 2016 are largely still with him , particularly in key swing states .
In other words , while Trump is a radical departure from previous GOP candidates in terms of personal style and his frequent racist comments , voters haven @ @ @ @ @ @ @ amid his rise in U.S. politics — the Americans who voted for Mitt Romney in 2012 overwhelmingly backed Trump in 2016 ( about 90 percent ) and those who backed Trump in 2016 are overwhelmingly behind him in 2020 ( about 94 percent ) .
That fact helps explain how Trump won in 2016 and why he might still come back in 2020 .
Here ’ s a more detailed look at those three groups : Polls suggest white people with college degrees nationally are likely to be more supportive of Biden than @ @ @ @ @ @ @ suggests that Clinton won whites with degrees by 17 percentage points , while Biden leads among them by 23 percentage points . )
But Biden ’ s advantage with white Americans with college degrees varies a lot by state , and that ’ s key .
In Democratic-leaning swing states such as Maine , New Hampshire and Minnesota , only about a third of white voters with college degrees are supporting Trump , according to recent polls .
That ’ s why he may not win any of those three states , even @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the more pro-Trump demographic groups — account for the majority of voters in all three .
This represents a continuation of what we ’ ve seen over the last four years — polls showed college-educated white voters in Maine and Minnesota , in particular , were significantly more Democratic-leaning than those in the rest of the country in 2016 and 2018 .
The good news for Trump is that white voters with degrees in the South remain more conservative-leaning than those in other regions of the country .
Polls suggest a majority of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ prefer Trump over Biden — as do more than 40 percent in Florida and North Carolina .
Again , this isn ’ t too surprising : In 2018 , white liberals nationally and in their states were enamored with Georgia Democratic gubernatorial candidate Stacey Abrams and Texas Democratic U.S. Senate candidate Beto O ’ Rourke .
But white college graduates overall preferred Abrams and O ’ Rourke ’ s GOP opponents — by double digits in both races .
White voters with degrees in Georgia and Texas remaining fairly pro-Trump is hugely important @ @ @ @ @ @ @ state , it would severely complicate his path to winning 270 electoral votes .
But he ’ s effectively tied in Georgia and Texas — even as white voters without degrees are a clear minority of the electorate in both states ( just 32 percent in Texas and 36 percent in Georgia ) .
Outside of the South , a clear majority of white college graduates prefer Biden to Trump in most battleground states .
In fact , it ’ s likely that white voters with degrees will vote Democratic at higher rates @ @ @ @ @ @ @ said , at least a third of white college graduates are likely to back Trump in basically every swing state .
What ’ s keeping this bloc with Trump ?
Many of these voters are simply longtime Republicans who hold conservative views .
But particularly in Georgia and Texas , it ’ s worth thinking about religion and race .
Being white and also an evangelical Protestant is strongly correlated with voting Republican — much more so than being white and not having a college degree .
According to data provided to us @ @ @ @ @ @ @ polling initiative , Georgia ranks seventh among states in terms of the percentage of its white registered voters who are evangelical Protestants ( about a third ) , with North Carolina 10th and Texas 13th .
For comparison , Virginia is the state that backed Hillary Clinton in 2016 with the highest percentage of its white registered voters who are evangelical Protestants — it was 17th among the 50 states by this measure .
In its surveys , Democracy Fund + UCLA Nationscape asks respondents their views on issues like whether they prefer @ @ @ @ @ @ @ same race and whether they agree or disagree with statements like , “ Generations of slavery and discrimination have created conditions that make it difficult for Blacks to work their way out of the lower class.
” Robert Griffin , research director for the Democracy Fund Voter Study Group , analyzed responses to these questions to create an overall “ score ” for voters on their racial attitudes .
Georgia ’ s white registered voters are more likely to express more negative sentiments about people of color than those in all but nine @ @ @ @ @ @ @ likely than white registered voters in other states to reject the view that slavery and discrimination are holding back Black people and more likely to be unsupportive of their relatives dating people outside of their race . )
Florida ( No .
11 ) , Texas ( No .
12 ) and North Carolina ( No .
13 ) rank similarly on these measures of racial attitudes .
Again , for comparison , the blue state where white registered voters hold the highest level of negative attitudes about minorities by this measure is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the 50 states .
So while white voters with college degrees are often portrayed as a monolith , and a Democratic monolith at that … they ’ re not .
And that fact is crucial to Trump ’ s reelection chances .
Polls suggest between a quarter and a third of Hispanics nationally are backing Trump — fairly similar to 2016 .
And like in 2016 , a sizable bloc of Hispanics in Arizona , Florida and Texas — three important swing states that have fairly large Hispanic electorates — are likely to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ last two decades have shown about 30 percent of Hispanics identity as Republican .
And despite his nasty rhetoric toward Mexico in particular , about as many Hispanics backed Trump as other recent Republican presidential nominees .
As we wrote in 2018 , there are plenty of explanations for that enduring pro-Trump Hispanic bloc : the anti-abortion views and Catholic and evangelical faiths of some Hispanic Americans ; the priorization of issues like jobs over immigration policy for many Hispanic voters , and the longtime courting of Hispanic voters by the GOP in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , again , the fact that the bottom hasn ’ t dropped out of Trump ’ s support among Hispanic voters is hugely significant to his continued competitiveness .
Polls suggest about 10 percent of black voters both nationally and in key swing states with large black electorates are supporting Trump .
That is similar to 2016 as well and again reflects broader partisan dynamics — surveys over the last three decades have shown about one of every 10 Black Americans identifies as a Republican .
If the race is really tight , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Black support could be critical .
In an analysis of the 2016 election , Griffin , John Halpin and Ruy Teixeira argued that Clinton would have won Michigan and Pennsylvania if Black voters in those states had supported her at the levels they did Barack Obama .
( About 95 percent of black voters in those states backed Obama , and about 90 percent supported Clinton . )
I don ’ t want to belabor that point too much — the Clinton-Trump matchup in those two states was so close that basically any @ @ @ @ @ @ @ would have won it for Clinton .
And it ’ s not surprising that black voters supported Obama , the first-ever Black president , at slightly higher levels than they did Clinton .
But again , the bottom hasn ’ t fallen out for Trump among Black voters — he is basically as popular as previous GOP candidates .
Last month ’ s Republican National Convention featured a lot of non-white speakers for a party whose voters are more than 80 percent white , and I think this analysis explains why .
In @ @ @ @ @ @ @ by further growing the GOP ’ s advantage among white voters without degrees , who are likely to represent more than 40 percent of the electorate .
That might happen to some extent , particularly among white men .
But polls suggest that white women without degrees won ’ t be as GOP-leaning in 2020 as they were in 2016 , either because they like Biden more than Clinton , have grown tired of Trump or some combination of both .
So Trump probably needs the white college graduates and Black and Hispanic @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and perhaps a few more , to back him again to win this election .
And they might .
Make sure to check out FiveThirtyEight ’ s presidential forecast in full ; you can also see all the 2020 polls we ’ ve collected , including national polls , Colorado polls , Florida polls , Michigan polls , Minnesota polls , North Carolina polls and … well … all the states , really .

Perry Bacon Jr. (perry.bacon@fivethirtyeight.com)

The overarching story of recent American elections is that 1) voters of color, who have long been Democratic-leaning, are a growing share of the electorate; 2) white voters with college degrees are increasingly shifting to the Democrats; and 3) white voters without degrees are aligning more with the GOP. But those trends, because they get so much focus, can warp our understanding of the electorate as it exists right now. Demographics are not yet destiny in American elections — millions of people don’t align with the party their race and ethnicity or education would predict. Case in point: In 2016, more than a third of President Trump’s support nationally came from non-Hispanic white Americans with college degrees (26 percent) and Asian, Black and Hispanic voters (12 percent), according to Pew Research Center data. On the flip side, about a quarter of Hillary Clinton’s supporters were non-Hispanic white Americans without degrees.
White Americans without degrees aren’t as likely to vote for Trump as in 2016, according to polls — which partly explains why Biden leads in national polls and key swing states like Pennsylvania. But a big reason Trump could still win the Electoral College, despite the poor marks Americans give him for his handling of COVID-19 and his job performance overall, is that the Black, Hispanic and college-educated white voters who backed him in 2016 are largely still with him, particularly in key swing states.
In other words, while Trump is a radical departure from previous GOP candidates in terms of personal style and his frequent racist comments, voters haven’t radically changed their voting patterns amid his rise in U.S. politics — the Americans who voted for Mitt Romney in 2012 overwhelmingly backed Trump in 2016 (about 90 percent) and those who backed Trump in 2016 are overwhelmingly behind him in 2020 (about 94 percent).
That fact helps explain how Trump won in 2016 and why he might still come back in 2020. Here’s a more detailed look at those three groups:
College-educated white voters
Polls suggest white people with college degrees nationally are likely to be more supportive of Biden than they were Clinton. (Pew data suggests that Clinton won whites with degrees by 17 percentage points, while Biden leads among them by 23 percentage points.)
But Biden’s advantage with white Americans with college degrees varies a lot by state, and that’s key. In Democratic-leaning swing states such as Maine, New Hampshire and Minnesota, only about a third of white voters with college degrees are supporting Trump, according to recent polls. That’s why he may not win any of those three states, even as whites without degrees — one of the more pro-Trump demographic groups — account for the majority of voters in all three. This represents a continuation of what we’ve seen over the last four years — polls showed college-educated white voters in Maine and Minnesota, in particular, were significantly more Democratic-leaning than those in the rest of the country in 2016 and 2018.
The good news for Trump is that white voters with degrees in the South remain more conservative-leaning than those in other regions of the country. Polls suggest a majority of white college graduates in Georgia and Texas prefer Trump over Biden — as do more than 40 percent in Florida and North Carolina. Again, this isn’t too surprising: In 2018, white liberals nationally and in their states were enamored with Georgia Democratic gubernatorial candidate Stacey Abrams and Texas Democratic U.S. Senate candidate Beto O’Rourke. But white college graduates overall preferred Abrams and O’Rourke’s GOP opponents — by double digits in both races.
White voters with degrees in Georgia and Texas remaining fairly pro-Trump is hugely important. If he were to lose either state, it would severely complicate his path to winning 270 electoral votes. But he’s effectively tied in Georgia and Texas — even as white voters without degrees are a clear minority of the electorate in both states (just 32 percent in Texas and 36 percent in Georgia).
Outside of the South, a clear majority of white college graduates prefer Biden to Trump in most battleground states. In fact, it’s likely that white voters with degrees will vote Democratic at higher rates than in any recent reelection. That said, at least a third of white college graduates are likely to back Trump in basically every swing state.
What’s keeping this bloc with Trump? Many of these voters are simply longtime Republicans who hold conservative views. But particularly in Georgia and Texas, it’s worth thinking about religion and race. Being white and also an evangelical Protestant is strongly correlated with voting Republican — much more so than being white and not having a college degree. According to data provided to us from the Democracy Fund + UCLA Nationscape polling initiative, Georgia ranks seventh among states in terms of the percentage of its white registered voters who are evangelical Protestants (about a third), with North Carolina 10th and Texas 13th. For comparison, Virginia is the state that backed Hillary Clinton in 2016 with the highest percentage of its white registered voters who are evangelical Protestants — it was 17th among the 50 states by this measure.
In its surveys, Democracy Fund + UCLA Nationscape asks respondents their views on issues like whether they prefer their relatives to marry someone of the same race and whether they agree or disagree with statements like, “Generations of slavery and discrimination have created conditions that make it difficult for Blacks to work their way out of the lower class.” Robert Griffin, research director for the Democracy Fund Voter Study Group, analyzed responses to these questions to create an overall “score” for voters on their racial attitudes. Georgia’s white registered voters are more likely to express more negative sentiments about people of color than those in all but nine states. (So they are more likely than white registered voters in other states to reject the view that slavery and discrimination are holding back Black people and more likely to be unsupportive of their relatives dating people outside of their race.)
Florida (No. 11), Texas (No. 12) and North Carolina (No. 13) rank similarly on these measures of racial attitudes. Again, for comparison, the blue state where white registered voters hold the highest level of negative attitudes about minorities by this measure is Delaware, which is 17th highest of the 50 states.
So while white voters with college degrees are often portrayed as a monolith, and a Democratic monolith at that … they’re not. And that fact is crucial to Trump’s reelection chances.
Hispanic voters
Polls suggest between a quarter and a third of Hispanics nationally are backing Trump — fairly similar to 2016. And like in 2016, a sizable bloc of Hispanics in Arizona, Florida and Texas — three important swing states that have fairly large Hispanic electorates — are likely to back the president.
Polls for the last two decades have shown about 30 percent of Hispanics identity as Republican. And despite his nasty rhetoric toward Mexico in particular, about as many Hispanics backed Trump as other recent Republican presidential nominees. As we wrote in 2018, there are plenty of explanations for that enduring pro-Trump Hispanic bloc: the anti-abortion views and Catholic and evangelical faiths of some Hispanic Americans ; the priorization of issues like jobs over immigration policy for many Hispanic voters, and the longtime courting of Hispanic voters by the GOP in Florida and Texas in particular.
But, again, the fact that the bottom hasn’t dropped out of Trump’s support among Hispanic voters is hugely significant to his continued competitiveness.
Black voters
Polls suggest about 10 percent of black voters both nationally and in key swing states with large black electorates are supporting Trump. That is similar to 2016 as well and again reflects broader partisan dynamics — surveys over the last three decades have shown about one of every 10 Black Americans identifies as a Republican.
If the race is really tight, Trump’s maintaining this sliver of Black support could be critical. In an analysis of the 2016 election, Griffin, John Halpin and Ruy Teixeira argued that Clinton would have won Michigan and Pennsylvania if Black voters in those states had supported her at the levels they did Barack Obama. (About 95 percent of black voters in those states backed Obama, and about 90 percent supported Clinton.)
I don’t want to belabor that point too much — the Clinton-Trump matchup in those two states was so close that basically any increase in support among any demographic group would have won it for Clinton. And it’s not surprising that black voters supported Obama, the first-ever Black president, at slightly higher levels than they did Clinton. But again, the bottom hasn’t fallen out for Trump among Black voters — he is basically as popular as previous GOP candidates.
Last month’s Republican National Convention featured a lot of non-white speakers for a party whose voters are more than 80 percent white, and I think this analysis explains why. In theory, Trump could win this election by further growing the GOP’s advantage among white voters without degrees, who are likely to represent more than 40 percent of the electorate. That might happen to some extent, particularly among white men. But polls suggest that white women without degrees won’t be as GOP-leaning in 2020 as they were in 2016, either because they like Biden more than Clinton, have grown tired of Trump or some combination of both. So Trump probably needs the white college graduates and Black and Hispanic voters who backed him in 2016, and perhaps a few more, to back him again to win this election. And they might.
Make sure to check out FiveThirtyEight’s presidential forecast in full; you can also see all the 2020 polls we’ve collected, including national polls, Colorado polls, Florida polls, Michigan polls, Minnesota polls, North Carolina polls and … well … all the states, really.


fivethirthyeight--2020-09-10--Economists Don’t Think The Lower Unemployment Rate Signals A Clear Recovery

After an August jobs report that yielded better-than-expected results for American workers , economists have a much sunnier outlook on unemployment through the end of the year .
But that optimism isn ’ t trickling into the rest of their economic forecasts — in part because there ’ s still so much uncertainty about what the rest of the year will bring , and in part because the July 31 expiration of the $ 600-per-week payment for unemployed workers could already be leaving millions of Americans in dire economic straits .
In the latest edition of our economic survey , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Global Markets at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business , FiveThirtyEight asked 28 quantitative macroeconomic economists about the future of the U.S. GDP and unemployment numbers .
We also asked them about Americans ’ spending and saving habits , which the economists believe changed in August ( and not for the better ) .
Recent jobs reports seem to have made experts a lot more optimistic about how quickly Americans can get back to work .
Just two weeks ago , our survey panel thought that there was only a 29 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ drop below 10 percent in the third quarter of 2020 .
But not only did it cross the 10 percent threshold , it fell to 8.4 percent in the Bureau of Labor Statistics ’ most recent data .
( Yes , there are some extenuating circumstances for that , but they don ’ t take too much away from the fact that jobs are recovering much faster than economists predicted . )
This has caused our panel to revise their estimates for unemployment in both September and December 2020 significantly downward : “ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s unemployment rate is seen by our survey as not being a temporary blip , but as reflecting a more permanent decline , ” said Allan Timmermann , an economist at the University of California , San Diego who has been consulting with FiveThirtyEight on the survey .
The survey panel ’ s projected unemployment rate for December , for instance , is 2 percentage points lower now than it was when we asked just a month earlier .
And our panel currently thinks there is a 63 percent chance that unemployment @ @ @ @ @ @ @ point between now and the end of the year .
Last week ’ s jobs report wasn ’ t the first one that turned out to be a lot cheerier than most observers had projected .
( Predicting the economic recovery in the middle of a pandemic is difficult , as it turns out . )
Unemployment indicators have been particularly challenging to untangle because they ’ re pointing in a bunch of different directions — for instance , even though the unemployment rate is falling , state-level unemployment claims are still historically @ @ @ @ @ @ @ at Johns Hopkins University who has been consulting with FiveThirtyEight on the survey , said that the survey of households that forms the basis of the unemployment rate may not be telling the whole story .
That survey has a fairly restrictive definition of unemployment — it excludes some people who may be out of a job or have lost income , such as part-time workers or those not actively looking for work due to the pandemic .
“ Broader concepts of underemployment are still painting a rather bad picture , ” Wright @ @ @ @ @ @ @ inequality in unemployment — a big problem in August ’ s jobs report — won ’ t be much better by year ’ s end .
The survey panel predicted a median unemployment rate of 11.9 percent for Black workers in December , with at least a 90 percent chance that the year would end with a double-digit unemployment rate for that group .
While the predicted number for Hispanic workers was slightly better ( 9.3 percent ) , the unemployment rates for both Black and Hispanic workers were predicted to be much @ @ @ @ @ @ @ December .
It ’ s extremely telling that the panel ’ s best case forecast for the unemployment rate of Hispanic workers ( 7.8 percent ) is only marginally rosier than the worst case for white workers ( 7.9 percent ) , which in turn is significantly more promising than the best case for Black workers ( 10.1 percent ) .
It ’ s also noteworthy that the economists ’ optimism about the economy as a whole hasn ’ t really been growing — instead , there remains a huge amount of uncertainty @ @ @ @ @ @ @ over the rest of the year .
The gap between best- and worst-case December real GDP growth in our survey is 12.7 percentage points , essentially unchanged from the estimated uncertainty in early July .
Even while our survey ’ s forecasts for the December unemployment rate were being revised downward , the economists ’ outlook for fourth-quarter real GDP growth ( a much broader measure of the overall recovery ) has hardly budged over the past two weeks .
The panel now thinks real GDP will grow at an annualized rate of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s end , barely up from 5.8 percent on Aug. 24 .
While that rate is higher than any of our survey ’ s median forecasts since we began asking the question on June 8 , the economists still think there ’ s at least a 10 percent chance of negative real GDP growth in the fourth quarter — and their best-case forecasts have been stuck between 12 and 13 percent growth for a month now .
Another sign of the economists ’ continued pessimism : They don ’ t think the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ be that bullish when they come in .
Despite the fact that more Americans were back on the job in August , the economists collectively thought there was a 31 percent probability that real personal consumption expenditures were substantially lower in August , compared to July , and a 51 percent chance that the personal saving rate was substantially lower in August , compared to July .
Some of the economists seemed to tie their predictions for both indicators to the expiration of the $ 600-per-week payment for unemployed workers , which makes @ @ @ @ @ @ @ allowing many people who were out of a job to spend more than they would normally and even save some money .
And a slowdown in consumer expenditures — or a decrease in the savings rate , which could be a harbinger of future household belt-tightening — isn ’ t good news for the economy , since businesses could find it harder to bring back more workers if their customers suddenly start spending less money .
All of this is to say that now is a pivotal — but confusing — moment for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ t as bad as the economists in our survey thought they would be a few months ago .
But it ’ s all a matter of perspective .
After all , over half the jobs that were lost in March and April still haven ’ t returned .
And with millions of people still out of work and an enormous amount of uncertainty about the trajectory of the virus , it ’ s easy to understand why economists aren ’ t celebrating yet .

After an August jobs report that yielded better-than-expected results for American workers, economists have a much sunnier outlook on unemployment through the end of the year. But that optimism isn’t trickling into the rest of their economic forecasts — in part because there’s still so much uncertainty about what the rest of the year will bring, and in part because the July 31 expiration of the $600-per-week payment for unemployed workers could already be leaving millions of Americans in dire economic straits.
In the latest edition of our economic survey, conducted in partnership with the Initiative on Global Markets at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business, FiveThirtyEight asked 28 quantitative macroeconomic economists about the future of the U.S. GDP and unemployment numbers. We also asked them about Americans’ spending and saving habits, which the economists believe changed in August (and not for the better).
Recent jobs reports seem to have made experts a lot more optimistic about how quickly Americans can get back to work. Just two weeks ago, our survey panel thought that there was only a 29 percent chance that the unemployment rate would drop below 10 percent in the third quarter of 2020. But not only did it cross the 10 percent threshold, it fell to 8.4 percent in the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ most recent data. (Yes, there are some extenuating circumstances for that, but they don’t take too much away from the fact that jobs are recovering much faster than economists predicted.) This has caused our panel to revise their estimates for unemployment in both September and December 2020 significantly downward:
Unemployment is improving faster than expected Predicted unemployment rates for September and December 2020, according to the FiveThirtyEight/IGM Economic Survey September 2020 Forecast from… Category Aug. 10 Sept. 8 Lower bound (10th percentile) 8.4% 7.1% Median (50th percentile) 10.0 8.1 Upper bound (90th percentile) 12.0 9.3 December 2020 Forecast from… Category Aug. 10 Sept. 8 Lower bound (10th percentile) 7.7% 6.2% Median (50th percentile) 9.6 7.6 Upper bound (90th percentile) 12.7 9.6 Separate forecasts were made on Aug. 10 and Sept. 8. Source: FIVETHIRTYEIGHT/IGM COVID-19 ECONOMIC SURVEY
“The surprisingly large drop in last month’s unemployment rate is seen by our survey as not being a temporary blip, but as reflecting a more permanent decline,” said Allan Timmermann, an economist at the University of California, San Diego who has been consulting with FiveThirtyEight on the survey.
The survey panel’s projected unemployment rate for December, for instance, is 2 percentage points lower now than it was when we asked just a month earlier. And our panel currently thinks there is a 63 percent chance that unemployment will drop below 8 percent at some point between now and the end of the year.
Last week’s jobs report wasn’t the first one that turned out to be a lot cheerier than most observers had projected. (Predicting the economic recovery in the middle of a pandemic is difficult, as it turns out.) Unemployment indicators have been particularly challenging to untangle because they’re pointing in a bunch of different directions — for instance, even though the unemployment rate is falling, state-level unemployment claims are still historically high.
Jonathan Wright, an economist at Johns Hopkins University who has been consulting with FiveThirtyEight on the survey, said that the survey of households that forms the basis of the unemployment rate may not be telling the whole story. That survey has a fairly restrictive definition of unemployment — it excludes some people who may be out of a job or have lost income, such as part-time workers or those not actively looking for work due to the pandemic. “Broader concepts of underemployment are still painting a rather bad picture,” Wright said.
The economists also think racial inequality in unemployment — a big problem in August’s jobs report — won’t be much better by year’s end. The survey panel predicted a median unemployment rate of 11.9 percent for Black workers in December, with at least a 90 percent chance that the year would end with a double-digit unemployment rate for that group. While the predicted number for Hispanic workers was slightly better (9.3 percent), the unemployment rates for both Black and Hispanic workers were predicted to be much higher than that of white workers come December. It’s extremely telling that the panel’s best case forecast for the unemployment rate of Hispanic workers (7.8 percent) is only marginally rosier than the worst case for white workers (7.9 percent), which in turn is significantly more promising than the best case for Black workers (10.1 percent).
Racial inequality in unemployment is likely to persist Actual August 2020 and predicted December 2020 unemployment rates for American workers, by race, according to the FiveThirtyEight/IGM Economic Survey Dec. 2020 unemployment* Race of workers Aug. 2020 unemployment Best Case median Worst Case White 7.3% 5.4% 6.4% 7.9% Hispanic 10.5 7.8 9.3 11.3 Black 13.0 10.1 11.9 14.0 *Predicted confidence intervals from survey panel. Best- and worst-case scenarios refer to the panel’s 90th and 10th percentile forecasts, respectively. Source: FIVETHIRTYEIGHT/IGM COVID-19 ECONOMIC SURVEY
It’s also noteworthy that the economists’ optimism about the economy as a whole hasn’t really been growing — instead, there remains a huge amount of uncertainty about what will happen with economic growth over the rest of the year. The gap between best- and worst-case December real GDP growth in our survey is 12.7 percentage points, essentially unchanged from the estimated uncertainty in early July. Even while our survey’s forecasts for the December unemployment rate were being revised downward, the economists’ outlook for fourth-quarter real GDP growth (a much broader measure of the overall recovery) has hardly budged over the past two weeks. The panel now thinks real GDP will grow at an annualized rate of 6.3 percent (quarter-over-quarter) at year’s end, barely up from 5.8 percent on Aug. 24.
While that rate is higher than any of our survey’s median forecasts since we began asking the question on June 8, the economists still think there’s at least a 10 percent chance of negative real GDP growth in the fourth quarter — and their best-case forecasts have been stuck between 12 and 13 percent growth for a month now.
Another sign of the economists’ continued pessimism: They don’t think the spending and saving numbers for August will be that bullish when they come in. Despite the fact that more Americans were back on the job in August, the economists collectively thought there was a 31 percent probability that real personal consumption expenditures were substantially lower in August, compared to July, and a 51 percent chance that the personal saving rate was substantially lower in August, compared to July. Some of the economists seemed to tie their predictions for both indicators to the expiration of the $600-per-week payment for unemployed workers, which makes sense because the payment appeared to be allowing many people who were out of a job to spend more than they would normally and even save some money.
And a slowdown in consumer expenditures — or a decrease in the savings rate, which could be a harbinger of future household belt-tightening — isn’t good news for the economy, since businesses could find it harder to bring back more workers if their customers suddenly start spending less money.
All of this is to say that now is a pivotal — but confusing — moment for the economy. Things certainly aren’t as bad as the economists in our survey thought they would be a few months ago. But it’s all a matter of perspective. After all, over half the jobs that were lost in March and April still haven’t returned. And with millions of people still out of work and an enormous amount of uncertainty about the trajectory of the virus, it’s easy to understand why economists aren’t celebrating yet.


fivethirthyeight--2020-09-10--We Could Have Watched Raptors-Celtics Game 6 All Day

chris.herring ( Chris Herring , senior sportswriter ) : There are so many things in the NBA world that have happened since the last time we chatted .
The reigning MVP and the club with the best record was ushered out of the playoffs in a gentleman ’ s sweep earlier this week .
And the Lakers and Clippers both appear to have turned a corner in their series and are beginning to look as scary as we imagined they might be .
But let ’ s start on another subject : Was I the only one that wanted to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ continue forever ?
dubin ( Jared dubin , FiveThirtyEight contributor ) : I think I ’ d be OK if they were still playing right now .
tchow ( Tony Chow , video producer ) : I know they were all tired , but I wanted Game 7 to start immediately after .
dre.waters ( Andres Waters , FiveThirtyEight contributor ) : I ’ m with Tony !
That game was an absolute roller coaster .
There were eight lead changes in the fourth quarter and two overtimes .
dubin : There have @ @ @ @ @ @ @ as a whole has been enormously fun .
Adjustments on both sides , condensed rotations with really only the best guys playing — and most of them ( basically everyone except Pascal Siakam and Marc Gasol ) playing at a very high level .
tchow : After Boston went up 2-0 , I really thought we all knew how this series would end up .
Coach Brad Stevens had Boston playing so well .
But kudos to the Raptors , man .
This is a FUN series .
chris.herring : Absolutely .
To @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s been strange because of the lopsided scores .
I saw an interesting stat from my college friend Dan Feldman just now .
How do you all feel about Game 7 on Friday ?
Obviously there ’ s no home-court advantage , like there would usually be in a scenario like this .
chris.herring : I picked the Celtics in seven initially , and I still feel good about that choice .
I don ’ t think there ’ s any way Kemba Walker shoots as poorly as he did last game .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ it was going to fail spectacularly early in the game when Jaylen Brown was going off … but it wound up keeping Kemba out of rhythm for crunch time .
Success !
( Toronto coach Nick Nurse loves to mess around with those defenses , as we detailed ahead of the playoffs . )
dre.waters : It ’ s a toss-up !
My gut is telling me that the Celtics will win , but this really feels like it could go either way .
tchow : Well , this is boring .
I @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Boston as well ?
I think Stevens will ultimately out-coach Nurse in the end .
chris.herring : I went into this series concerned about Siakam ’ s ability to break down an elite defense as the No .
1 option , and Boston has made that look smart .
I never thought he would struggle this much .
dre.waters : If it ’ s a close game late , I like the Raptors ’ chances , though .
None of those guys seem afraid of the moment .
dubin : Norman Powell certainly @ @ @ @ @ @ @ dre.waters : Am I the only one who nearly fell out of my seat when I saw they left their season in his hands at the end of the first OT ?
tchow : The clutchest shooter late in games , Norm Powell .
I have ALWAYS said this .
chris.herring : Moving on , there ’ s obviously one series that ’ s in the books already : The Miami Heat ( !
!
! )
took out Giannis Antetokounmpo and Milwaukee in stunning fashion , nearly sweeping the Bucks before beating @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Oh , yeah — I thought this was the Jimmy Butler Fan Appreciation Chat Room .
Did I come to the right place ?
chris.herring : Depending on how you slice it , it was arguably the most lopsided upset we ’ ve ever seen .
I want to get into what Miami did to make that happen .
But what does all this mean for Milwaukee ?
And what were the Bucks ’ biggest flaws in this series ?
dubin : First of all , I want to take issue with anything @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Knicks beating the No .
1-seeded Heat being the most lopsided upset we ’ ve ever seen .
Let ’ s just get that out of the way .
( Note : It probably wasn ’ t .
But I have nothing else as a Knick fan at this point . )
As for the Bucks , the lack of adjustments , again , and the inability to create offense in the half-court in any way other than “ Giannis barrels to the rim.
” dre.waters : I thought the Bucks ’ lack @ @ @ @ @ @ @ own shot killed them .
Khris Middleton saved them when he played big after Giannis went down in Game 4 .
But they needed more from the rest of the team .
chris.herring : I think the whole “ Not having Malcolm Brogdon ” thing kind of bit them in the ass .
Eric Bledsoe was soooo brutal , and I ’ ve said in a chat or two before that the playoffs were always going to be the barometer to judge whether the Bucks were right to not retain Brogdon .
dubin @ @ @ @ @ @ @ they had who consistently got to the rim .
In a series where Miami was comfortable letting anyone other than Giannis do that , it would have mattered a decent amount , I ’ d think .
It also would have helped to have him as another option to guard Jimmy .
tchow : When you look at the series Brogdon had against the Heat in the first round , you could really see how someone like him could have helped Milwaukee in this series .
chris.herring : What , if anything , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Bucks ?
Giannis is going to get an offer for the supermax .
If and when he doesn ’ t sign it , speculation is going to begin that he ’ s out the door in 2021 .
Hell , that speculation has already begun .
tchow : I think that speculation started the moment he missed Game 4. dubin : I think the speculation started after Game 6 last year , and multiple teams ( including the Heat ) have been preparing for it for even longer than that .
chris.herring : @ @ @ @ @ @ @ make sense for them ?
dre.waters : I think he would , especially if he could play like he did against the Rockets in Round 1 .
Through seven games , he averaged 21.3 points and 5.3 assists while shooting nearly 50 percent from the field .
dubin : I don ’ t know how you do a deal given the size of his contract , but if they can swing it , absolutely .
chris.herring : I think the Giannis speculation is too early , honestly , though I don ’ t @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and judge when exactly it ’ s appropriate to sound that alarm .
For all we know , the Bucks could make a tweak or three and win next year ’ s title .
Although , as Kawhi Leonard showed , winning it all doesn ’ t necessarily guarantee that your star will want to stay in that uniform anyway .
dubin : It ’ s the biggest domino that ’ s going to drop in the league in the next two years , and like I said , multiple teams have been @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are gon na talk about it .
That ’ s just the way it is .
There ’ s just a difference between , “ What will Giannis do ?
” and “ Giannis should do [ X ] .
” What did Miami do in this series that was so different with Giannis ?
Was it simply the Heat ’ s personnel ?
It seemed like coach Erik Spoelstra implemented things to neutralize the Middleton-Giannis pick and roll that ’ s worked so well for the Bucks at times .
dubin : @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on “ Inside the NBA ” : The Heat just did not respect Milwaukee ’ s shooters at all .
tchow : They were basically daring someone other than Giannis to beat them .
chris.herring : Brook Lopez made them pay for that .
But Bledsoe couldn ’ t , at least not from distance .
dre.waters : And defensively , they had so many guys to split time guarding Giannis .
Jae Crowder , Andre Iguodala , Bam Adebayo and Jimmy all spent time guarding him .
I think that helped keep @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
dubin : I think that if Brook Lopez beats you , just tip your cap and say well done .
At least you didn ’ t let the MVP get anything easy .
All right , let ’ s look at the West now .
The Rockets and Nuggets each took an early win in their respective series with the Lakers and Clippers .
But they now have dropped four games in a row between them .
And in Houston ’ s case , they may be down a couple of really @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for possibly violating the bubble guidelines ? )
I know these series aren ’ t over , necessarily … but are they kinda over ?
dre.waters : It definitely feels that way in the Clippers-Nuggets series .
Even when the Nuggets finally caught up Wednesday night , it just never felt like they were going to win that game .
tchow : The Nuggets really needed Game 3 .
They had it , too — until , you know … the Clippers started really trying on defense .
chris.herring : That ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ series , Utah — one of the best defenses in the league — couldn ’ t stop Jamal Murray .
Here , the Clippers have done a pretty great job bottling him up and making life difficult for him , even when he doesn ’ t have the ball in his hands .
And if any team was going to do that , it would be the Clippers .
tchow : Definitely .
The Clippers have a team that could coast until they really need to turn it on , regardless of the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Nuggets have had a really impressive playoff run , but I can ’ t see them pulling this off .
dubin : It ’ s quite a bit different going against Royce O ’ Neale than it is going against Patrick Beverley , Paul George and Kawhi Leonard .
I thought the full-strength Clippers would be good , but they look even better than I thought they would .
chris.herring : I like Denver quite a bit .
But the Nuggets are very different .
They run a ton of their offense through @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and a guard who runs really , really hot and cold .
Their third-best scorer is a guy who is awful on defense and looks like he was told what the idea of a pass is only yesterday .
I know Denver came back from 3-1 last round .
But I think a lot would need to happen for that to be the case here , against a clearly superior Clippers club .
tchow : Is there a world where , even if the Nuggets lose the series , they can keep Nikola @ @ @ @ @ @ @ him into any losing team so we can watch him play more ?
That would be ideal .
chris.herring : What about the Rockets and Lakers ?
Is there anything there that inspires confidence that Houston can knot the series at two games apiece tonight ?
It looks like Robert Covington , a key cog in the Rockets ’ system , is going to play despite a really scary collision he had in Game 3. dubin : Covington ’ s rim protection is basically the key to making that defense work , maybe @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a superhuman .
tchow : If Danuel House really can ’ t play for the rest of the season ( for the aforementioned … reasons ) , does this mean we will see even more of the small-ball lineup ?
chris.herring : I don ’ t even think they can really go any shorter than they already have .
Just seems like the rotation gets thinner — in a figurative sense !
I never thought I ’ d say this , but Rajon Rondo has been huge in this series — and he @ @ @ @ @ @ @ advantage they needed to make this more of a breeze ?
I really hadn ’ t banked on how much good it might do LeBron James to have Rondo back .
The guy is swatting layups every other time down the floor , it seems .
The extra energy is really showing and making it challenging for the Rockets .
dubin : Rondo ’ s defense has been a nice surprise , as well .
His reputation has exceeded reality on that end for a few years , but he ’ s been @ @ @ @ @ @ @ dre.waters : I didn ’ t expect Rondo to be this good in his return , honestly .
chris.herring : The Rockets have now lost twice in a row despite hitting at least 40 percent of their threes .
That ’ s noteworthy , because prior to this , they had logged a perfect 16-0 mark during the season when that was the case .
tchow : One thing though that I think is necessary to point out : Our predictions still give the Rockets a better shot of winning the NBA Finals @ @ @ @ @ @ @ I ’ ve been trying to figure that out this whole time , too .
It had them as pretty heavy favorites in this series before , and even now , with them being down a game , it has them even .
dre.waters : That ’ s the value of 47.9 3-point attempts per game , LOL .
chris.herring : I try not to take a sledgehammer to the model , since it made me look like a fool last year , with the Raptors in the Finals .
But I gave @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
( And of course the Rockets won Game 1 , which made me feel silly for questioning it . )
tchow : LOL .
I think it ’ s fun to doubt the model and then look silly .
I still think it seems like we ’ re headed for the inevitable all-L.A. matchup that the NBA wants .
The model clearly disagrees .
dubin : Even ahead of the bubble , the model was big on the Rockets .
Their full-strength roster rating was third-best among teams invited to Orlando , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
They also got the second-largest title odds bump from the neutral-site version of the projections , compared with the one where teams played real home and road games .
chris.herring : I think tonight is likely the model ’ s last shot at redemption for this series .
Because barring an injury to LeBron , I don ’ t think Houston can beat the Lakers three consecutive times .
And if that happens , I ’ m going to the corner store to buy a bag of popcorn in advance to savor @ @ @ @ @ @ @ had this round .
That Game 7 should be great .
Kind of makes me wish there was a crowd for it .
dubin : One nice thing is that it seems like no matter who makes it through , the conference finals on both sides should be awesome .

chris.herring (Chris Herring, senior sportswriter): There are so many things in the NBA world that have happened since the last time we chatted. The reigning MVP and the club with the best record was ushered out of the playoffs in a gentleman’s sweep earlier this week. And the Lakers and Clippers both appear to have turned a corner in their series and are beginning to look as scary as we imagined they might be.
But let’s start on another subject: Was I the only one that wanted to see last night’s Celtics-Raptors game continue forever?
dubin (Jared Dubin, FiveThirtyEight contributor): I think I’d be OK if they were still playing right now.
tchow (Tony Chow, video producer): I know they were all tired, but I wanted Game 7 to start immediately after.
dre.waters (Andres Waters, FiveThirtyEight contributor): I’m with Tony! That game was an absolute roller coaster. There were eight lead changes in the fourth quarter and two overtimes.
dubin: There have been two blowouts, but the series as a whole has been enormously fun. Adjustments on both sides, condensed rotations with really only the best guys playing — and most of them (basically everyone except Pascal Siakam and Marc Gasol) playing at a very high level.
tchow: After Boston went up 2-0, I really thought we all knew how this series would end up. Coach Brad Stevens had Boston playing so well. But kudos to the Raptors, man. This is a FUN series.
chris.herring: Absolutely. To Jared’s point, it’s been strange because of the lopsided scores.
I saw an interesting stat from my college friend Dan Feldman just now.
The Celtics have outscored the Raptors by 32 in this series. Teams +30 through six games are 14-4 in Game 7. — Dan Feldman (@DanFeldmanNBA) September 10, 2020
How do you all feel about Game 7 on Friday? Obviously there’s no home-court advantage, like there would usually be in a scenario like this.
dubin:
chris.herring: I picked the Celtics in seven initially, and I still feel good about that choice. I don’t think there’s any way Kemba Walker shoots as poorly as he did last game.
dubin: The box-and-one gambit looked like it was going to fail spectacularly early in the game when Jaylen Brown was going off … but it wound up keeping Kemba out of rhythm for crunch time. Success! (Toronto coach Nick Nurse loves to mess around with those defenses, as we detailed ahead of the playoffs.)
dre.waters: It’s a toss-up! My gut is telling me that the Celtics will win, but this really feels like it could go either way.
tchow: Well, this is boring. I think I would have to go with Boston as well? I think Stevens will ultimately out-coach Nurse in the end.
chris.herring: I went into this series concerned about Siakam’s ability to break down an elite defense as the No. 1 option, and Boston has made that look smart. I never thought he would struggle this much.
dre.waters: If it’s a close game late, I like the Raptors’ chances, though. None of those guys seem afraid of the moment.
dubin: Norman Powell certainly isn’t, at least.
dre.waters: Am I the only one who nearly fell out of my seat when I saw they left their season in his hands at the end of the first OT?
tchow: The clutchest shooter late in games, Norm Powell. I have ALWAYS said this.
chris.herring: Moving on, there’s obviously one series that’s in the books already: The Miami Heat (!!!) took out Giannis Antetokounmpo and Milwaukee in stunning fashion, nearly sweeping the Bucks before beating them in five games.
tchow: Oh, yeah — I thought this was the Jimmy Butler Fan Appreciation Chat Room. Did I come to the right place?
chris.herring: Depending on how you slice it, it was arguably the most lopsided upset we’ve ever seen. I want to get into what Miami did to make that happen. But what does all this mean for Milwaukee? And what were the Bucks’ biggest flaws in this series?
dubin: First of all, I want to take issue with anything other than the No. 8-seeded 1999 Knicks beating the No. 1-seeded Heat being the most lopsided upset we’ve ever seen. Let’s just get that out of the way. (Note: It probably wasn’t. But I have nothing else as a Knick fan at this point.)
As for the Bucks, the lack of adjustments, again, and the inability to create offense in the half-court in any way other than “Giannis barrels to the rim.”
dre.waters: I thought the Bucks’ lack of players who can really create their own shot killed them. Khris Middleton saved them when he played big after Giannis went down in Game 4. But they needed more from the rest of the team.
chris.herring: I think the whole “Not having Malcolm Brogdon” thing kind of bit them in the ass. Eric Bledsoe was soooo brutal, and I’ve said in a chat or two before that the playoffs were always going to be the barometer to judge whether the Bucks were right to not retain Brogdon.
dubin: He was the only non-Giannis guy they had who consistently got to the rim. In a series where Miami was comfortable letting anyone other than Giannis do that, it would have mattered a decent amount, I’d think. It also would have helped to have him as another option to guard Jimmy.
tchow: When you look at the series Brogdon had against the Heat in the first round, you could really see how someone like him could have helped Milwaukee in this series.
chris.herring: What, if anything, does this mean going forward for the Bucks? Giannis is going to get an offer for the supermax. If and when he doesn’t sign it, speculation is going to begin that he’s out the door in 2021. Hell, that speculation has already begun.
tchow: I think that speculation started the moment he missed Game 4.
dubin: I think the speculation started after Game 6 last year, and multiple teams (including the Heat) have been preparing for it for even longer than that.
chris.herring: Do you all think Chris Paul would make sense for them?
dubin: YES. Perfect fit.
dre.waters: I think he would, especially if he could play like he did against the Rockets in Round 1. Through seven games, he averaged 21.3 points and 5.3 assists while shooting nearly 50 percent from the field.
dubin: I don’t know how you do a deal given the size of his contract, but if they can swing it, absolutely.
chris.herring: I think the Giannis speculation is too early, honestly, though I don’t expect the media to sit idly by and judge when exactly it’s appropriate to sound that alarm. For all we know, the Bucks could make a tweak or three and win next year’s title.
Although, as Kawhi Leonard showed, winning it all doesn’t necessarily guarantee that your star will want to stay in that uniform anyway.
dubin: It’s the biggest domino that’s going to drop in the league in the next two years, and like I said, multiple teams have been prepping runs for multiple years. People are gonna talk about it. That’s just the way it is.
There’s just a difference between, “What will Giannis do?” and “Giannis should do [X].”
chris.herring: That’s fair.
What did Miami do in this series that was so different with Giannis? Was it simply the Heat’s personnel? It seemed like coach Erik Spoelstra implemented things to neutralize the Middleton-Giannis pick and roll that’s worked so well for the Bucks at times.
dubin: Draymond Green made a really good point on “Inside the NBA”: The Heat just did not respect Milwaukee’s shooters at all.
tchow: They were basically daring someone other than Giannis to beat them.
chris.herring: Brook Lopez made them pay for that. But Bledsoe couldn’t, at least not from distance.
This was something pic.twitter.com/FUJi1C0j01 — Chris Herring (@Herring_NBA) September 6, 2020
dre.waters: And defensively, they had so many guys to split time guarding Giannis. Jae Crowder, Andre Iguodala, Bam Adebayo and Jimmy all spent time guarding him. I think that helped keep Jimmy fresh at the end of games.
dubin: I think that if Brook Lopez beats you, just tip your cap and say well done. At least you didn’t let the MVP get anything easy.
chris.herring: “NOTHING EASY” *ZAZA VOICE*
All right, let’s look at the West now.
The Rockets and Nuggets each took an early win in their respective series with the Lakers and Clippers. But they now have dropped four games in a row between them. And in Houston’s case, they may be down a couple of really key role players. (Including one for possibly violating the bubble guidelines?)
I know these series aren’t over, necessarily … but are they kinda over?
dre.waters: It definitely feels that way in the Clippers-Nuggets series. Even when the Nuggets finally caught up Wednesday night, it just never felt like they were going to win that game.
tchow: The Nuggets really needed Game 3. They had it, too — until, you know … the Clippers started really trying on defense.
chris.herring: That’s the difference, it seems.
Last series, Utah — one of the best defenses in the league — couldn’t stop Jamal Murray. Here, the Clippers have done a pretty great job bottling him up and making life difficult for him, even when he doesn’t have the ball in his hands.
And if any team was going to do that, it would be the Clippers.
tchow: Definitely. The Clippers have a team that could coast until they really need to turn it on, regardless of the scoreline, and still win. The Nuggets have had a really impressive playoff run, but I can’t see them pulling this off.
dubin: It’s quite a bit different going against Royce O’Neale than it is going against Patrick Beverley, Paul George and Kawhi Leonard.
I thought the full-strength Clippers would be good, but they look even better than I thought they would.
chris.herring: I like Denver quite a bit. But the Nuggets are very different. They run a ton of their offense through a highly unselfish, plodding big man and a guard who runs really, really hot and cold. Their third-best scorer is a guy who is awful on defense and looks like he was told what the idea of a pass is only yesterday.
I know Denver came back from 3-1 last round. But I think a lot would need to happen for that to be the case here, against a clearly superior Clippers club.
tchow: Is there a world where, even if the Nuggets lose the series, they can keep Nikola Jokić in the bubble and just plug him into any losing team so we can watch him play more? That would be ideal.
chris.herring: What about the Rockets and Lakers? Is there anything there that inspires confidence that Houston can knot the series at two games apiece tonight?
It looks like Robert Covington, a key cog in the Rockets’ system, is going to play despite a really scary collision he had in Game 3.
dubin: Covington’s rim protection is basically the key to making that defense work, maybe even more than P.J. Tucker being a superhuman.
tchow: If Danuel House really can’t play for the rest of the season (for the aforementioned … reasons), does this mean we will see even more of the small-ball lineup?
chris.herring: I don’t even think they can really go any shorter than they already have. Just seems like the rotation gets thinner — in a figurative sense!
I never thought I’d say this, but Rajon Rondo has been huge in this series — and he’s maybe given the Lakers the advantage they needed to make this more of a breeze? I really hadn’t banked on how much good it might do LeBron James to have Rondo back. The guy is swatting layups every other time down the floor, it seems. The extra energy is really showing and making it challenging for the Rockets.
dubin: Rondo’s defense has been a nice surprise, as well. His reputation has exceeded reality on that end for a few years, but he’s been good on that end so far.
dre.waters: I didn’t expect Rondo to be this good in his return, honestly.
tchow: Playoff Rondo brings back Lakers Showtime. It all makes sense.
chris.herring: The Rockets have now lost twice in a row despite hitting at least 40 percent of their threes. That’s noteworthy, because prior to this, they had logged a perfect 16-0 mark during the season when that was the case.
tchow: One thing though that I think is necessary to point out: Our predictions still give the Rockets a better shot of winning the NBA Finals. That feels off?
chris.herring: I’ve been trying to figure that out this whole time, too. It had them as pretty heavy favorites in this series before, and even now, with them being down a game, it has them even.
dre.waters: That’s the value of 47.9 3-point attempts per game, LOL.
chris.herring: I try not to take a sledgehammer to the model, since it made me look like a fool last year, with the Raptors in the Finals. But I gave it a side-eye heading into the series. (And of course the Rockets won Game 1, which made me feel silly for questioning it.)
tchow: LOL. I think it’s fun to doubt the model and then look silly. I still think it seems like we’re headed for the inevitable all-L.A. matchup that the NBA wants. The model clearly disagrees.
dubin: Even ahead of the bubble, the model was big on the Rockets. Their full-strength roster rating was third-best among teams invited to Orlando, and their playoff roster rating was fifth. They also got the second-largest title odds bump from the neutral-site version of the projections, compared with the one where teams played real home and road games.
(The Sixers were first. But that was before Ben Simmons got injured.)
chris.herring: I think tonight is likely the model’s last shot at redemption for this series. Because barring an injury to LeBron, I don’t think Houston can beat the Lakers three consecutive times.
And if that happens, I’m going to the corner store to buy a bag of popcorn in advance to savor the one great series we’ve had this round.
That Game 7 should be great. Kind of makes me wish there was a crowd for it.
dubin: One nice thing is that it seems like no matter who makes it through, the conference finals on both sides should be awesome.
Check out our latest NBA predictions.


fivethirthyeight--2020-09-10--Scheme (And Sacks) Might Be All That Separate Patrick Mahomes And Deshaun Watson

After just one player tested positive for COVID-19 in the latest round of monitoring , the NFL season will kick off on schedule Thursday night with the Houston Texans at the Kansas City Chiefs .
The game is a rematch of January ’ s AFC divisional playoff — one of the more thrilling games of the most recent season .
A quick refresher for those who ’ ve forgotten : Houston jumped out to a commanding 24-0 second-quarter lead at Arrowhead Stadium , only to lose 51-31 in what would be the largest comeback in Chiefs franchise history .
In @ @ @ @ @ @ @ pandemic that threatens to slash the NFL salary cap for the first time since 2011 — Kansas City ’ s Patrick Mahomes and Houston ’ s Deshaun Watson signed massive , multi-year contract extensions that made them the two highest-paid players in the league .
The two quarterbacks were taken within two picks of each other in the 2017 draft .
Mahomes , who was drafted slightly earlier than Watson , has won a league MVP award and a Super Bowl , and according to Pro Football Focus has a 21.4 percent shot @ @ @ @ @ @ @ season begins .
Yet despite Mahomes ’ s incredible early success , Watson ’ s regular-season passing production is surprisingly comparable to that of the 2018 MVP .
Mahomes has completed 65.9 percent of his passes , averaging 8.6 yards per attempt , and tossed 76 touchdowns so far in his career .
Watson sports a 66.8 career completion percentage , 8.1 yards per attempt and 71 touchdown passes .
If we break out each passer ’ s performance by the type of coverage they faced , their performances continue to align generally @ @ @ @ @ @ @ be better than Watson against Cover 4 zone coverage , but it ’ s one of the more infrequently used defenses in the NFL , so our sample is small .
The notable exception to the relative parity of Watson and Mahomes is their sack rate .
Some have argued that Watson ’ s higher career sack total is proof of a more challenging team environment , but research strongly suggests that sacks are something over which a QB has the most control .
If Watson takes more sacks , it isn ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ does a worse job of protecting him .
In 2019 , the Chiefs ’ and Texans ’ offensive lines earned nearly identical pass blocking grades from Pro Football Focus , yet Watson took more than twice as many sacks as Mahomes did .
If we ’ re looking for a differentiator in team environment , particularly for last season , we should probably look elsewhere .
Happily , we don ’ t have to look too far .
There is strong evidence that Mahomes does benefit from a better team environment than Watson @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Reid ’ s genius in designing screen plays .
With Reid creating and calling plays , nine of Mahomes ’ s 76 career touchdowns have come on screens .
This compares with just three touchdowns for Watson and accounts for the entire differential in the two QBs ’ career TD totals .
We should probably expect a screen or two Thursday night .
Reid particularly likes dialing them up in the red zone .
Take , for example , a screen he called last year in Week 6 against the Texans at the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ which went for a touchdown , three receivers lined up to the left with tight end Travis Kelce on the right side of the formation .
The first and second receivers forced the defense to flow to the left , away from the design of the play .
Meanwhile , the third receiver ran directly at the single high safety to try to occupy him .
Finally , Kelce ( No .
87 ) runs his route toward an area of the field that puts him in position to pick the safety if @ @ @ @ @ @ @ play on the running back catching the screen pass .
Along with good patience by Mahomes in delivering the ball and excellent execution by the offensive line , the play design gave running back Damien Williams a massive amount of open grass in a part of the field where space is rare .
Reid also signed a reported six-year contract extension in the offseason , keeping Mahomes and Reid together for the foreseeable future .
Perhaps more than any other factor , it ’ s their partnership that has the Chiefs favored by @ @ @ @ @ @ @ rematch , and Kansas City a favorite to return the Super Bowl .

After just one player tested positive for COVID-19 in the latest round of monitoring, the NFL season will kick off on schedule Thursday night with the Houston Texans at the Kansas City Chiefs. The game is a rematch of January’s AFC divisional playoff — one of the more thrilling games of the most recent season. A quick refresher for those who’ve forgotten: Houston jumped out to a commanding 24-0 second-quarter lead at Arrowhead Stadium, only to lose 51-31 in what would be the largest comeback in Chiefs franchise history.
In the months since — and despite a pandemic that threatens to slash the NFL salary cap for the first time since 2011 — Kansas City’s Patrick Mahomes and Houston’s Deshaun Watson signed massive, multi-year contract extensions that made them the two highest-paid players in the league. The two quarterbacks were taken within two picks of each other in the 2017 draft. Mahomes, who was drafted slightly earlier than Watson, has won a league MVP award and a Super Bowl, and according to Pro Football Focus has a 21.4 percent shot to win a second MVP as the season begins.
Yet despite Mahomes’s incredible early success, Watson’s regular-season passing production is surprisingly comparable to that of the 2018 MVP. Mahomes has completed 65.9 percent of his passes, averaging 8.6 yards per attempt, and tossed 76 touchdowns so far in his career. Watson sports a 66.8 career completion percentage, 8.1 yards per attempt and 71 touchdown passes. If we break out each passer’s performance by the type of coverage they faced, their performances continue to align generally in most measures. Mahomes seems to be better than Watson against Cover 4 zone coverage, but it’s one of the more infrequently used defenses in the NFL, so our sample is small.
Sacks aside, Mahomes and Watson are quite similar Regular-season passing attempts by coverage type since 2017 for Patrick Mahomes and Deshaun Watson man-to-man, cover 0 player Comp% yards Yds/Att Air Yds/Att TD Int Sack Deshaun Watson 62.5% 205 6.4 11.3 4 1 7 Patrick Mahomes 61.9% 152 7.2 8.1 2 0 1 man-to-man, cover 1 player Comp% yards Yds/Att Air Yds/Att TD Int Sack Deshaun Watson 64.6% 3,649 8.3 9.1 22 7 34 Patrick Mahomes 61.6% 3,295 8.4 9.0 19 8 15 man-to-man, cover 2 player Comp% yards Yds/Att Air Yds/Att TD Int Sack Deshaun Watson 55.9% 644 6.9 9.7 6 4 17 Patrick Mahomes 56.9% 840 8.2 7.8 2 2 2 zone cover 2 player Comp% yards Yds/Att Air Yds/Att TD Int Sack Deshaun Watson 76.7% 1,402 8.6 7.4 4 6 18 Patrick Mahomes 71.1% 1,556 9.0 8.8 12 3 14 zone cover 3 player Comp% yards Yds/Att Air Yds/Att TD Int Sack Deshaun Watson 71.3% 2,662 9.4 9.6 8 7 32 Patrick Mahomes 73.2% 2,397 9.4 8.9 10 2 7 zone cover 4 Comp% yards Yds/Att Air Yds/Att TD Int Sack Deshaun Watson 72.9% 769 8.0 9.4 5 0 11 Patrick Mahomes 68.4% 838 11.0 8.0 8 3 3 Source: ESPN Stats & Information Group
The notable exception to the relative parity of Watson and Mahomes is their sack rate. Some have argued that Watson’s higher career sack total is proof of a more challenging team environment, but research strongly suggests that sacks are something over which a QB has the most control. If Watson takes more sacks, it isn’t necessarily evidence that his offensive line does a worse job of protecting him. In 2019, the Chiefs’ and Texans’ offensive lines earned nearly identical pass blocking grades from Pro Football Focus, yet Watson took more than twice as many sacks as Mahomes did. If we’re looking for a differentiator in team environment, particularly for last season, we should probably look elsewhere. Happily, we don’t have to look too far.
There is strong evidence that Mahomes does benefit from a better team environment than Watson in one important way: coach Andy Reid’s genius in designing screen plays. With Reid creating and calling plays, nine of Mahomes’s 76 career touchdowns have come on screens. This compares with just three touchdowns for Watson and accounts for the entire differential in the two QBs’ career TD totals.
We should probably expect a screen or two Thursday night. Reid particularly likes dialing them up in the red zone. Take, for example, a screen he called last year in Week 6 against the Texans at the 14-yard line. On the play, which went for a touchdown, three receivers lined up to the left with tight end Travis Kelce on the right side of the formation. The first and second receivers forced the defense to flow to the left, away from the design of the play. Meanwhile, the third receiver ran directly at the single high safety to try to occupy him. Finally, Kelce (No. 87) runs his route toward an area of the field that puts him in position to pick the safety if the safety is able to make a play on the running back catching the screen pass.
Along with good patience by Mahomes in delivering the ball and excellent execution by the offensive line, the play design gave running back Damien Williams a massive amount of open grass in a part of the field where space is rare.
Reid also signed a reported six-year contract extension in the offseason, keeping Mahomes and Reid together for the foreseeable future. Perhaps more than any other factor, it’s their partnership that has the Chiefs favored by 9 points in Thursday night’s rematch, and Kansas City a favorite to return the Super Bowl.