fivethirthyeight--2020-06-16--Liverpool Is Winning More Than Any Premier League Team Ever Has

As the English Premier League picks back up this week , Liverpool is on the verge of winning its first English soccer championship in 30 years and its first Premier League title ever .
If Manchester City loses to Arsenal on Wednesday , Liverpool can wrap up its long-awaited Premier League title with a derby win against Merseyside rivals Everton on June 21 .
[ Related : Which Premier League Team Has The Toughest Road Ahead ? ]
Before the coronavirus pandemic put a stop to the season in March , Liverpool had been enjoying the most successful season by @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Europe ’ s top five leagues .
Through Matchweek 29 , Liverpool had amassed an astounding 82 points — more points than six of the Premier League ’ s previous 27 champions .
Liverpool has won 2.83 points per game , far surpassing those exceptional City teams of the very recent past .
If it keeps up its current pace , Liverpool will finish with 107 points , smashing Manchester City ’ s single-season points record of 100 .
Although it ’ s been knocked out of this season ’ s competition , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ UEFA Champions League title .
The team also holds the FIFA Club World Cup title .
Everything certainly has been coming up Liverpool over the course of the past year — so much so that it ’ s easy to forget the other team firmly entrenched at the top of the table before Liverpool ’ s ascendence .
When Manchester City won its third Premier League title in 2018 , it did so by scoring 106 goals ( a top-flight record ) and amassing an astonishing and unprecedented 100 points .
The Cityzens @ @ @ @ @ @ @ campaign unbeaten like the Arsenal “ invincibles ” of 2003-04 — Liverpool made certain of that , in fact — but their proclivity for shredding record books and writing them anew set a fresh and preposterous standard in the Premier League .
City might not have been invincible in 2017-18 , but its title was certainly inevitable .
Cross-city rivals Manchester United finished second that season , a whopping 19 points short of the top spot in the table .
City ’ s was the most thorough performance in the history of the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the following season , at least for City .
It scored 95 goals and amassed 98 points en route to a second consecutive Premier League title .
Pep Guardiola ’ s squad wasn ’ t quite as dominant as it had been during the previous season : Its expected goal differential , which measures the difference between expected goals scored ( xG ) and expected goals against ( xGA ) , was +56.4 in 2018-19 compared with +58.3 in 2017-18 .
But any dip in the Cityzens ’ performance was nearly imperceptible .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ , was Liverpool ’ s emergence as a legitimate title challenger .
Before the 2018-19 season , Jürgen Klopp ’ s reign as Liverpool manager had been defined by inconsistent brilliance .
The Reds made a remarkable run to the Champions League final in 2017-18 but also finished 25 points behind City in the Premier League table .
Klopp ’ s Liverpool was an adequate heavyweight with a puncher ’ s chance , but it hadn ’ t yet landed an iconic blow .
Sure , it denied City domestic invincibility and European @ @ @ @ @ @ @ gathered no silverware of its own .
Moral victories don ’ t fill trophy cases , after all .
When Liverpool did find another gear in the 2018-19 season , City was still right there waiting .
Liverpool pushed City to the brink and finished with 97 points — the third-highest tally in the history of the English top flight — but still could not manage to unseat its northwest rivals and win its first title in nearly three decades .
But this season , Liverpool has fulfilled the promise seen over the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , Liverpool didn ’ t really do anything wrong in 2017-18 and 2018-19 .
In expected goal differential per 90 minutes , the Reds were better during those two seasons than they have been this season .
And even though they finished fourth in the table in 2017-18 , those expected goal numbers suggested that they were already the second-best team in England .
The Reds lost just six domestic matches combined during the 2017-18 and 2018-19 seasons , but it was draws that did them in — 19 total in that span @ @ @ @ @ @ @ season , though .
Through Matchweek 29 , Liverpool has drawn just one game , winning 27 of the other 28 .
Some of those wins were lopsided — such as the 4-0 drubbing of current third-place Leicester City — but others came after it looked as though the Reds would draw .
Staving off the draws is why Liverpool is on the verge of breaking City ’ s all-time single-season points record .
Of course , Klopp might decide to rest all his first-team players and “ play the kids ” once @ @ @ @ @ @ @ team will have nothing left to play for , and it might not want to risk injuries to key players that could limit what it ’ s able to do next season , which will start quickly after this one ends .
In that case , Liverpool might not set any records at all .
But it will still have its league title — which is what its fans really want .
The final months of the Premier League will offer no shortage of intrigue .
There is a tense and tight relegation @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and an equally tense and tight battle for European qualification near the top .
The very top , however , is already settled .
It has been for some time .

As the English Premier League picks back up this week, Liverpool is on the verge of winning its first English soccer championship in 30 years and its first Premier League title ever. If Manchester City loses to Arsenal on Wednesday, Liverpool can wrap up its long-awaited Premier League title with a derby win against Merseyside rivals Everton on June 21.
[Related: Which Premier League Team Has The Toughest Road Ahead?]
Before the coronavirus pandemic put a stop to the season in March, Liverpool had been enjoying the most successful season by points per game in the history of Europe’s top five leagues. Through Matchweek 29, Liverpool had amassed an astounding 82 points — more points than six of the Premier League’s previous 27 champions. Liverpool has won 2.83 points per game, far surpassing those exceptional City teams of the very recent past. If it keeps up its current pace, Liverpool will finish with 107 points, smashing Manchester City’s single-season points record of 100.
No team has ever won points like Liverpool Points won per match by English Premier League champions plus Liverpool in the 2019-20 season Season Team Total Points Matches Points/Match 2019-20 Liverpool 82 29 2.83 2017-18 Man City 100 38 2.63 2018-19 Man City 98 38 2.58 2004-05 Chelsea 95 38 2.50 2016-17 Chelsea 93 38 2.45 1999-00 Man United 91 38 2.39 2005-06 Chelsea 91 38 2.39 2003-04 Arsenal 90 38 2.37 2008-09 Man United 90 38 2.37 2006-07 Man United 89 38 2.34 2011-12 Man City 89 38 2.34 2012-13 Man United 89 38 2.34 2001-02 Arsenal 87 38 2.29 2007-08 Man United 87 38 2.29 2014-15 Chelsea 87 38 2.29 2009-10 Chelsea 86 38 2.26 2013-14 Man City 86 38 2.26 1993-94 Man United 92 42 2.19 2002-03 Man United 83 38 2.18 1995-96 Man United 82 38 2.16 2015-16 Leicester City 81 38 2.13 1994-95 Blackburn Rovers 89 42 2.12 2000-01 Man United 80 38 2.11 2010-11 Man United 80 38 2.11 1998-99 Man United 79 38 2.08 1997-98 Arsenal 78 38 2.05 1992-93 Man United 84 42 2.00 1996-97 Man United 75 38 1.97 Source: PremierLeague.com
Although it’s been knocked out of this season’s competition, Liverpool is the current holder of the UEFA Champions League title. The team also holds the FIFA Club World Cup title. Everything certainly has been coming up Liverpool over the course of the past year — so much so that it’s easy to forget the other team firmly entrenched at the top of the table before Liverpool’s ascendence.
When Manchester City won its third Premier League title in 2018, it did so by scoring 106 goals (a top-flight record) and amassing an astonishing and unprecedented 100 points. The Cityzens didn’t manage to finish the campaign unbeaten like the Arsenal “invincibles” of 2003-04 — Liverpool made certain of that, in fact — but their proclivity for shredding record books and writing them anew set a fresh and preposterous standard in the Premier League.
City might not have been invincible in 2017-18, but its title was certainly inevitable. Cross-city rivals Manchester United finished second that season, a whopping 19 points short of the top spot in the table. City’s was the most thorough performance in the history of the English game.
Subscribe to our sports podcast, Hot Takedown
Not much changed during the following season, at least for City. It scored 95 goals and amassed 98 points en route to a second consecutive Premier League title. Pep Guardiola’s squad wasn’t quite as dominant as it had been during the previous season: Its expected goal differential, which measures the difference between expected goals scored (xG) and expected goals against (xGA), was +56.4 in 2018-19 compared with +58.3 in 2017-18. But any dip in the Cityzens’ performance was nearly imperceptible. What wasn’t imperceptible, however, was Liverpool’s emergence as a legitimate title challenger.
Before the 2018-19 season, Jürgen Klopp’s reign as Liverpool manager had been defined by inconsistent brilliance. The Reds made a remarkable run to the Champions League final in 2017-18 but also finished 25 points behind City in the Premier League table. Klopp’s Liverpool was an adequate heavyweight with a puncher’s chance, but it hadn’t yet landed an iconic blow. Sure, it denied City domestic invincibility and European glory in 2017-18, but it had gathered no silverware of its own. Moral victories don’t fill trophy cases, after all.
When Liverpool did find another gear in the 2018-19 season, City was still right there waiting. Liverpool pushed City to the brink and finished with 97 points — the third-highest tally in the history of the English top flight — but still could not manage to unseat its northwest rivals and win its first title in nearly three decades.
The Reds are ascending Liverpool’s expected goals for and against, and the difference per 90 minutes, by season since 2017-18 Expected goals Season For Against Diff/90 2017-18 71.3 34.3 +0.98 2018-19 72.9 29.8 +1.13 2019-20 56.5 29.3 +0.94 Source: FBRef.com
But this season, Liverpool has fulfilled the promise seen over the previous two years. To be clear, Liverpool didn’t really do anything wrong in 2017-18 and 2018-19. In expected goal differential per 90 minutes, the Reds were better during those two seasons than they have been this season. And even though they finished fourth in the table in 2017-18, those expected goal numbers suggested that they were already the second-best team in England.
The Reds lost just six domestic matches combined during the 2017-18 and 2018-19 seasons, but it was draws that did them in — 19 total in that span. That’s all changed this season, though. Through Matchweek 29, Liverpool has drawn just one game, winning 27 of the other 28. Some of those wins were lopsided — such as the 4-0 drubbing of current third-place Leicester City — but others came after it looked as though the Reds would draw. Staving off the draws is why Liverpool is on the verge of breaking City’s all-time single-season points record.
Of course, Klopp might decide to rest all his first-team players and “play the kids” once the title is wrapped up. The team will have nothing left to play for, and it might not want to risk injuries to key players that could limit what it’s able to do next season, which will start quickly after this one ends. In that case, Liverpool might not set any records at all. But it will still have its league title — which is what its fans really want.
The final months of the Premier League will offer no shortage of intrigue. There is a tense and tight relegation battle at the bottom of the table and an equally tense and tight battle for European qualification near the top. The very top, however, is already settled. It has been for some time.
Check out our latest soccer predictions.


fivethirthyeight--2020-06-23--How A Scientific Paper About A Promising COVID-19 Treatment Was Debunked

When a paper in a major medical journal reported that hydroxychloroquine harmed COVID-19 patients , it made big news .
@ @ @ @ @ sleuths uncovered evidence that not only was the paper inaccurate , but the data may @ @ @ @ @ How could this paper have been released in the first place ?
And what does @ @ @ @ @ science gets shared ?

When a paper in a major medical journal reported that hydroxychloroquine harmed COVID-19 patients, it made big news. But a group of Twitter sleuths uncovered evidence that not only was the paper inaccurate, but the data may even have been fabricated. How could this paper have been released in the first place? And what does it tell us about how science gets shared?


fivethirthyeight--2020-06-23--The NBA Has Lost Ground On Hiring — And Retaining — Black Coaches

The NBA has earned a reputation as the most racially conscious and socially minded of the “ Big Four ” leagues .
Going back decades , its biggest stars have been outspoken on issues of racial inequality , and league commissioner Adam Silver has been at the forefront of many of those conversations during his tenure .
The league has consistently received high marks from The Institute for Diversity and Ethics in Sport for its racial hiring practices , and it hasn ’ t needed something like the Rooney Rule or Selig Rule to combat systemic underrepresentation of Black coaches @ @ @ @ @ @ @ image , the NBA faces its own issues of underrepresentation : In a league in which three-quarters of the athletes are Black — to say nothing of the fanbase , which likely has the highest percentage of Black viewers in American sports — just eight of its 30 head coaching positions are occupied by Black coaches .
A coalition of NBA players , led by Kyrie Irving and Avery Bradley , has demanded that the league commits to improving its hiring practices for Black head coaches , ahead of the NBA ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 2015 , Bleacher Report ’ s Howard Beck wrote about the sudden loss of Black coaches from the NBA .
A flurry of firings and departures over the course of just a few months led to the league ’ s fewest Black coaches in 16 seasons .
“ I think it bears watching , to see what happens , ” New Orleans Pelicans head coach Alvin Gentry said at the time .
“ Five years from now , where are we going to be , from a numbers standpoint ?
” Almost five @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ t changed all that much .
There were fewer Black head coaches ( seven ) at the start of this NBA season than there were to start the 2015-16 season ( eight ) .
That ’ s down from a league-record high of 14 Black coaches to start the 2012-13 season as well as the average of just under 11 Black coaches from the 2000-01 to 2009-10 seasons .
What ’ s less clear , however , are the exact reasons behind the lower levels of representation over the last few seasons @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to stay .
It ’ s possible that even slight differences in team performances have , over time , made a lasting , negative impression on NBA general managers .
From 2000-01 to 2012-13 , the NBA started each season with an average of just over 11 Black coaches .
In those seasons , teams that started the season with a Black coach went 5,417-6,182 ( 0.467 ) .
But from 2013-14 to 2019-20 , the league averaged fewer than nine Black head coaches , and teams that started the season with a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ — slightly worse .
As one Black NBA executive put it to Yahoo Sports in February , there can be reverberating effects if a Black coach ’ s tenure goes less than smoothly .
“ One Black guy gets a shot to hold a position , if he fails then the establishment looks at it and says Black guys can ’ t do that , ” he said .
“ White counterparts fail and fail up all the time , and get replaced by more white guys.
” Take the example of David @ @ @ @ @ @ @ head coach who was fired after a 4-18 start with a roster that seemed doomed from the beginning .
The purported front-runner for his old job is Tom Thibodeau , a white coach who was fired from his last two head coaching jobs and replaced by other white coaches both times .
Of course , Fizdale ’ s stint in New York was a second opportunity after he was fired as coach of the Memphis Grizzlies a season after he led the team to the playoffs .
That example is illustrative of a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ their jobs are being replaced more often with non-Black coaches , while non-Black coaches are being replaced more often with other non-Black coaches .
Between the 2000-01 and 2014-15 seasons , 51 percent of non-Black coaches who were fired or resigned were replaced by another non-Black coach , and 49 percent were replaced by a Black coach .
In that same time frame , about a third of the Black coaches who were fired or resigned were replaced by another Black coach .
But since 2015-16 , non-Black coaches have increasingly been replaced @ @ @ @ @ @ @ clip of 59 percent — while the share of Black coaches replacing Black coaches is down to just 15 percent .
Only two of the 13 Black coaches who left their jobs since 2015-16 have been replaced by other Black coaches .
It also appears that , relative to their non-Black counterparts , newly hired Black coaches have increasingly been put in positions where it may be more difficult to succeed .
All new coaches tend to inherit teams that struggled in the previous season : New coaches since 2000-01 have taken on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ System ( SRS ) average of -2.09 .
From the 2000-01 season through the 2014-15 season , Black coaches actually joined teams with better ratings than their white counterparts : -1.51 SRS to -2.23 .
But since the 2015-16 season , those positions have flipped .
In the past five seasons , new Black coaches have presided over teams with an average previous season SRS of -2.89 , while new non-Black head coaches have coached teams with an average previous-season SRS of -2.63 .
Starting from a more difficult position , with an @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for Black coaches to keep their hold on their jobs .
Furthermore , one of the most common areas of experience for Black head coaches in the NBA seems to be increasingly less sought after : playing experience .
In that 2015 piece , Beck wrote that NBA teams were increasingly looking for more “ unconventional hires ” and moving away from the “ standard pool of former players-turned-coaches , a pool that is , by definition , predominantly Black.
” The emergence of non-NBA player pipelines , Beck wrote , was a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ NBA head coaches .
Beck ’ s observation still holds true .
Between the 2000-01 and 2014-15 seasons , 63.5 percent of newly hired coaches had played in the ABA or NBA , but those bona fides weren ’ t spread evenly among races .
A whopping 83.1 percent of newly hired Black coaches had playing experience , while only about half of non-Black coaches did .
Since the start of the 2015-16 season , the share of new coaches who have played has dropped to 40 percent : 21 of the 35 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ t played in the NBA .
The share of newly hired Black coaches with playing experience has fallen to 45.5 percent , with non-Black coaches at 37.5 percent .
Two of the league ’ s most experienced coaches , Pistons coach Dwane Casey and Gentry of the Pelicans , did not play in the NBA .
Neither did Fizdale , second-year Atlanta Hawks head coach Lloyd Pierce or J.B. Bickerstaff , who signed a multi-year extension with Cleveland in March after filling in midseason for John Beilein , who resigned .
This could @ @ @ @ @ @ @ didn ’ t come up through the traditional player-to-clipboard pipeline , which has been well-traveled by Black coaches .
But if playing experience is no longer valued as highly for NBA coaching jobs , it ’ s bound to affect Black coaches more , given how many Black coaches historically have come from the player ranks .
While the door might be opened to some , it will likely be closed to others .
All of this paints a complicated picture for the NBA ’ s hiring efforts moving forward .
We know @ @ @ @ @ @ @ hire more Black coaches ; what we don ’ t know are the necessary structures and networks to facilitate more diverse coaching ranks in the long run .
Maybe it ’ s time to reexamine the widespread embrace of analytics and unconventional hiring sources that has blessed many franchises but may also have left some Black coaches behind .
And , of course , there ’ s an even more drastic disparity between the numbers of Black and non-Black executives .
With the recent hire of Troy Weaver , the NBA has nine @ @ @ @ @ @ @ than in recent years , but just four have the final say in basketball-related decisions .
Part of the concerns of Irving and Bradley relate to just that : the lack of Black voices in the league ’ s overall decision-making apparatus .
For now , we ’ re left to wonder , just like Gentry did in 2015 , what the situation will look like in a few more years for Black coaches in the NBA .

The NBA has earned a reputation as the most racially conscious and socially minded of the “Big Four” leagues. Going back decades, its biggest stars have been outspoken on issues of racial inequality, and league commissioner Adam Silver has been at the forefront of many of those conversations during his tenure. The league has consistently received high marks from The Institute for Diversity and Ethics in Sport for its racial hiring practices, and it hasn’t needed something like the Rooney Rule or Selig Rule to combat systemic underrepresentation of Black coaches.
Or does it? Despite its image, the NBA faces its own issues of underrepresentation: In a league in which three-quarters of the athletes are Black — to say nothing of the fanbase, which likely has the highest percentage of Black viewers in American sports — just eight of its 30 head coaching positions are occupied by Black coaches. A coalition of NBA players, led by Kyrie Irving and Avery Bradley, has demanded that the league commits to improving its hiring practices for Black head coaches, ahead of the NBA’s scheduled restart in late July.
In 2015, Bleacher Report’s Howard Beck wrote about the sudden loss of Black coaches from the NBA. A flurry of firings and departures over the course of just a few months led to the league’s fewest Black coaches in 16 seasons. “I think it bears watching, to see what happens,” New Orleans Pelicans head coach Alvin Gentry said at the time. “Five years from now, where are we going to be, from a numbers standpoint?”
Almost five years later, the surface-level numbers haven’t changed all that much. There were fewer Black head coaches (seven) at the start of this NBA season than there were to start the 2015-16 season (eight). That’s down from a league-record high of 14 Black coaches to start the 2012-13 season as well as the average of just under 11 Black coaches from the 2000-01 to 2009-10 seasons. What’s less clear, however, are the exact reasons behind the lower levels of representation over the last few seasons — and whether the trend is here to stay.
It’s possible that even slight differences in team performances have, over time, made a lasting, negative impression on NBA general managers. From 2000-01 to 2012-13, the NBA started each season with an average of just over 11 Black coaches. In those seasons, teams that started the season with a Black coach went 5,417-6,182 (0.467). But from 2013-14 to 2019-20, the league averaged fewer than nine Black head coaches, and teams that started the season with a Black coach went 2,163-2,640 (0.450) — slightly worse. As one Black NBA executive put it to Yahoo Sports in February, there can be reverberating effects if a Black coach’s tenure goes less than smoothly. “One Black guy gets a shot to hold a position, if he fails then the establishment looks at it and says Black guys can’t do that,” he said. “White counterparts fail and fail up all the time, and get replaced by more white guys.”
Take the example of David Fizdale, the former New York Knicks head coach who was fired after a 4-18 start with a roster that seemed doomed from the beginning. The purported front-runner for his old job is Tom Thibodeau, a white coach who was fired from his last two head coaching jobs and replaced by other white coaches both times. Of course, Fizdale’s stint in New York was a second opportunity after he was fired as coach of the Memphis Grizzlies a season after he led the team to the playoffs.
That example is illustrative of a broader trend: Black coaches who leave their jobs are being replaced more often with non-Black coaches, while non-Black coaches are being replaced more often with other non-Black coaches. Between the 2000-01 and 2014-15 seasons, 51 percent of non-Black coaches who were fired or resigned were replaced by another non-Black coach, and 49 percent were replaced by a Black coach. In that same time frame, about a third of the Black coaches who were fired or resigned were replaced by another Black coach. But since 2015-16, non-Black coaches have increasingly been replaced by other non-Black coaches — at a clip of 59 percent — while the share of Black coaches replacing Black coaches is down to just 15 percent. Only two of the 13 Black coaches who left their jobs since 2015-16 have been replaced by other Black coaches.
It also appears that, relative to their non-Black counterparts, newly hired Black coaches have increasingly been put in positions where it may be more difficult to succeed. All new coaches tend to inherit teams that struggled in the previous season: New coaches since 2000-01 have taken on teams with a previous season Simple Rating System (SRS) average of -2.09. From the 2000-01 season through the 2014-15 season, Black coaches actually joined teams with better ratings than their white counterparts: -1.51 SRS to -2.23. But since the 2015-16 season, those positions have flipped. In the past five seasons, new Black coaches have presided over teams with an average previous season SRS of -2.89, while new non-Black head coaches have coached teams with an average previous-season SRS of -2.63. Starting from a more difficult position, with an inferior roster, may make it harder for Black coaches to keep their hold on their jobs.
Furthermore, one of the most common areas of experience for Black head coaches in the NBA seems to be increasingly less sought after: playing experience.
[Related: The Rooney Rule Isn’t Working Anymore]
In that 2015 piece, Beck wrote that NBA teams were increasingly looking for more “unconventional hires” and moving away from the “standard pool of former players-turned-coaches, a pool that is, by definition, predominantly Black.” The emergence of non-NBA player pipelines, Beck wrote, was a prime factor behind the decrease in Black NBA head coaches.
Beck’s observation still holds true. Between the 2000-01 and 2014-15 seasons, 63.5 percent of newly hired coaches had played in the ABA or NBA, but those bona fides weren’t spread evenly among races. A whopping 83.1 percent of newly hired Black coaches had playing experience, while only about half of non-Black coaches did. Since the start of the 2015-16 season, the share of new coaches who have played has dropped to 40 percent: 21 of the 35 full-time hires were people who hadn’t played in the NBA. The share of newly hired Black coaches with playing experience has fallen to 45.5 percent, with non-Black coaches at 37.5 percent.
Subscribe to our sports podcast, Hot Takedown
Two of the league’s most experienced coaches, Pistons coach Dwane Casey and Gentry of the Pelicans, did not play in the NBA. Neither did Fizdale, second-year Atlanta Hawks head coach Lloyd Pierce or J.B. Bickerstaff, who signed a multi-year extension with Cleveland in March after filling in midseason for John Beilein, who resigned. This could suggest a growing acceptance of those who didn’t come up through the traditional player-to-clipboard pipeline, which has been well-traveled by Black coaches. But if playing experience is no longer valued as highly for NBA coaching jobs, it’s bound to affect Black coaches more, given how many Black coaches historically have come from the player ranks. While the door might be opened to some, it will likely be closed to others.
All of this paints a complicated picture for the NBA’s hiring efforts moving forward. We know that the league faces a call to hire more Black coaches; what we don’t know are the necessary structures and networks to facilitate more diverse coaching ranks in the long run. Maybe it’s time to reexamine the widespread embrace of analytics and unconventional hiring sources that has blessed many franchises but may also have left some Black coaches behind.
And, of course, there’s an even more drastic disparity between the numbers of Black and non-Black executives. With the recent hire of Troy Weaver, the NBA has nine Black general managers, a higher number than in recent years, but just four have the final say in basketball-related decisions. Part of the concerns of Irving and Bradley relate to just that: the lack of Black voices in the league’s overall decision-making apparatus.
For now, we’re left to wonder, just like Gentry did in 2015, what the situation will look like in a few more years for Black coaches in the NBA.


fivethirthyeight--2020-06-23--Progressives Could Finally Win Something In New York And Kentucky

In this week ’ s FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast , the team discusses the dynamic between Democratic upstarts and the party @ @ @ @ @ to the polls in New York and Kentucky .

Progressives Could Finally Win Something In New York And Kentucky
In this week’s FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the team discusses the dynamic between Democratic upstarts and the party establishment as primary voters head to the polls in New York and Kentucky.


fivethirthyeight--2020-06-23--Today’s Elections In Kentucky And New York Are High-Stakes For The Progressive Movement

Between a suddenly competitive Senate race in Kentucky and the possible ouster of four entrenched incumbents in New York , Tuesday ’ s primary elections feature the largest-scale confrontation yet between the Democratic establishment and the party ’ s progressive wing .
In New York especially , the primaries will test the political muscle of Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez , who has thrown her weight behind several progressives running for Congress and state legislature .
In addition , four other states ( Mississippi , North Carolina , South Carolina and Virginia ) will hold their primaries or primary runoffs , but @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that we ’ ll be watching closely .
Regardless , don ’ t wait up late tonight for results ; because the coronavirus has forced most states to conduct elections predominantly by absentee ballot , it could take more than a week to learn who won the day ’ s biggest races .
New York won ’ t start counting its absentee ballots until June 30 , and at least a third of Kentucky counties , including the two biggest , will not release any results until that date either .
The highest @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the Democratic primary for U.S. Senate in the Bluegrass State .
For months , Amy McGrath , a former Marine who gained national attention for her strong but unsuccessful House run in 2018 , seemed like a shoo-in for the Democratic nomination to take on Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell .
Helped by her own national following , an intense Democratic desire to defeat McConnell and the backing of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee , McGrath raised massive sums of money for the race — $ 41.1 million as of June 3 , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , there were some signs of resistance to McGrath .
A few Democrats in Kentucky ’ s state legislature have backed state Rep. Charles Booker , while some progressive activists support farmer and former Marine Mike Broihier .
Recently , however , Booker — who would be Kentucky ’ s first Black senator — has gained attention for speaking out about racial inequality at local protests against police violence , which have carried special meaning in Louisville as the hometown of Breonna Taylor , a young Black woman whom police shot and killed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s leadership impressed the state ’ s two biggest newspapers , which endorsed him , and even galvanized progressives nationally : Ocasio-Cortez , Sen. Bernie Sanders and Sen. Elizabeth Warren endorsed Booker in the final weeks of the race .
Now , polls show a tight race between McGrath and Booker , and it ’ s not clear which candidate will come out ahead .
Either way , though , McConnell will remain a heavy favorite in November ; he leads both McGrath and Booker by double digits in hypothetical matchups .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ we ’ re watching , including eight matchups between establishment and insurgent candidates and five incumbents who could theoretically lose their safe seats .
The most direct clash between the two wings of the party is in the 16th District , where 16-term Rep. Eliot Engel is being challenged by former middle school principal Jamaal Bowman .
Unlike some other Democrats who have faced progressive primary challenges this year , Engel is pretty liberal ( according to DW-Nominate , he ’ s more liberal than 64 percent of the current House Democratic Caucus @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton , Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Gov .
Andrew Cuomo .
However , Engel has been criticized for neglecting his district ; he rode out the first two months of the pandemic in Washington , D.C. , even as his Bronx- and Westchester County-based district became a coronavirus hotspot , and a hot mic caught him pleading to speak at a press conference about the anti-police-violence protests by saying , “ if I didn ’ t have a primary , I wouldn ’ t care.
” That @ @ @ @ @ @ @ out and endorsing Bowman , gave Bowman momentum ; the Justice Democrats and the Working Families Party had been backing Bowman for months , but he also now has the support of Ocasio-Cortez , Sanders and The New York Times editorial board .
Bowman ’ s campaign says it also raised more than $ 600,000 from June 1-12 , although Engel had spent more and had more cash on hand as of June 3 .
And a Data for Progress poll conducted for Bowman gave the challenger a surprisingly wide 10-point lead , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ its internal polls show Engel ahead .
A few of New York City ’ s other incumbents also face notable challenges , though a lack of polling means it ’ s hard to gauge how serious they are .
• In the Brooklyn-based 9th District , community organizer Adem Bunkeddeko is back for a rematch with seven-term Rep. Yvette Clarke after losing to her just 53 percent to 47 percent in the 2018 Democratic primary .
Ideologically , both Clarke and Bunkeddeko are staunch progressives , so this contest is more about approach @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to take PAC money ; Bunkeddeko is not .
The addition of two new candidates this year — one progressive , one conservative aiming to appeal to the district ’ s Orthodox Jewish community — adds even more unpredictability .
• In the tri-borough ( Manhattan , Brooklyn and Queens ) 12th District , 14-term Rep. Carolyn Maloney also confronts a familiar face : attorney Suraj Patel , who lost to Maloney 60 percent to 40 percent in 2018 .
However , democratic socialists Lauren Ashcraft and Peter Harrison are also running this @ @ @ @ @ @ @ vote .
As of June 3 , Maloney , an ideologically median Democrat and chair of the House Oversight and Reform Committee , had outspent her three challengers combined , $ 2.0 million to $ 754,186 .
• In the 10th District , which zigzags across Manhattan and Brooklyn , Rep. Jerrold Nadler faces two challengers : former New York Deputy Secretary of Economic Development Lindsey Boylan and former Andrew Yang staffer Jonathan Herzog .
Although Nadler , who played a starring role in President Trump ’ s impeachment proceedings as chair of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ pretty progressive voting record , Boylan and Herzog have argued he is all bark and no bite .
As of June 3 , Boylan had spent $ 749,902 , almost as much as Nadler ’ s $ 1.1 million .
That said , in Nadler ’ s nearly 30 years as a congressman , he has never come close to losing renomination , so it might be an uphill battle for Boylan or Herzog to dethrone him .
• Finally , there ’ s one place anti-establishment forces are playing defense : Ocasio-Cortez @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the Bronx .
Former CNBC anchor Michelle Caruso-Cabrera , a fiscal conservative , says “ AOC is MIA ” in the district and blames her for scuttling Amazon ’ s plan to build a second headquarters in New York City .
With the help of deep-pocketed business executives and more than a few Republicans , Caruso-Cabrera has raised an impressive $ 2.0 million in an effort to unseat the first-term incumbent .
Of course , Ocasio-Cortez has raised a whopping $ 10.5 million , so it seems as if the 14th is still @ @ @ @ @ @ @ other dark-blue open seats , many liberals are fighting to prevent the nomination from going to someone who might actually vote with Republicans .
In the South Bronx 15th District , New York City Council Member Rubén Díaz , Sr. , is a conservative Democrat who opposes abortion , has claimed that city government is “ controlled by the homosexual community ” and is openly considering a vote for Trump this fall .
But as the patriarch of a Bronx political dynasty — he represented the area in the state Senate for 15 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ borough president — Díaz has enough of a base to be a front-runner in the fractured , 12-candidate field .
Liberals are split on their preferred alternative : Ocasio-Cortez and Sanders endorsed affordable-housing activist Samelys López , while the Black political establishment has rallied around Assemblyman Michael Blake .
And symbolic of Democrats ’ indecision , the political arm of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus is backing New York City Council Member Ritchie Torres , but the caucus ’ s chair , Rep. Joaquin Castro , has endorsed former City Council Speaker Melissa Mark-Viverito @ @ @ @ @ @ @ first openly LGBT elected official , may be the candidate best positioned to beat Díaz .
As of June 3 , he had spent the most money in the race , at $ 856,531 ( although Blake was not far behind at $ 705,648 ) .
And a Data for Progress poll in May found Díaz with 22 percent , Torres with 20 percent and no other candidate above 6 percent .
However , 34 percent of likely voters were still undecided .
Up the Hudson River , in the suburban 17th District @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a top contender for the Democratic nod — despite his seven years as a member of the Independent Democratic Conference , a breakaway group of Democrats who handed control of the state Senate to Republicans .
But after multiple polls showed Carlucci in strong position , progressives ( including Ocasio-Cortez ) united behind attorney Mondaire Jones , and Jones took 25 percent to Carlucci ’ s 11 percent in a more recent Public Policy Polling survey .
However , at 14 percent each in the poll , former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Adam Schleifer are still in the hunt as well .
Schleifer in particular has one big advantage : millions of dollars in pharmaceutical stock .
He has invested almost $ 4 million of his own money in his campaign , allowing him to spend four times more than any other candidate .
All the seats above will almost certainly remain in Democratic hands this fall no matter who wins the primary .
But upstate , in the Syracuse-based 24th District , Democrats ’ choice of nominee could affect their chances against vulnerable GOP @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Democratic candidates , professor Dana Balter and Navy veteran Francis Conole , disagree on only a few things : health care ( Balter supports Medicare for All , Conole a public option ) and who is more electable .
( As the Democrats ’ previous nominee , Balter lost to Katko by 5 points in 2018 , even though the district had voted for Clinton by nearly 4 points two years earlier .
However , that was a stronger performance than Katko ’ s 2016 opponent , even after adjusting for the national @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , the two had spent similar sums of money ( around $ 700,000 ) , but Balter ’ s name recognition may carry the day : According to a GBAO Strategies poll for her campaign , she led 60 percent to 31 percent as of early June .
The parties will also decide their nominees in four other New York swing seats : the 1st , 2nd , 11th and 22nd .
Of these , only the Democratic primary in the 1st District , which covers eastern Long Island , is in any @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to be businessman Perry Gershon , who lost to GOP Rep. Lee Zeldin here by 4 points in 2018 .
But self-funding chemistry professor Nancy Goroff outspent him $ 1.6 million to $ 979,063 , and as of late May Goroff ’ s internal polling showed the two roughly tied .
Suffolk County Legislator Bridget Fleming then responded with her own internal poll giving herself and Goroff 29 percent each , with Gershon at 22 percent .
Fleming spent just $ 598,608 but earned a notable endorsement from progressive actor Cynthia Nixon .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ , you might also be interested in one non-primary election happening Tuesday .
Nine months after ex-Rep. Chris Collins resigned and pleaded guilty to insider trading , New York ’ s 27th District is finally holding a special election to replace him .
The GOP tapped state Sen. Chris Jacobs as its nominee in January , while Democrats are fielding former Grand Island Town Supervisor Nate McMurray , who came within 1,088 votes of unseating Collins in 2018 .
However , Jacobs is a far less damaged candidate than Collins was , and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ by 24 points .
Therefore , Jacobs is a heavy favorite to win , but the exact margin will be worth watching as a barometer of the national mood .
So far this cycle , despite wide Democratic leads in presidential and congressional generic ballot polls , special-election results have not indicated a consistent Democratic overperformance .

Between a suddenly competitive Senate race in Kentucky and the possible ouster of four entrenched incumbents in New York, Tuesday’s primary elections feature the largest-scale confrontation yet between the Democratic establishment and the party’s progressive wing. In New York especially, the primaries will test the political muscle of Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, who has thrown her weight behind several progressives running for Congress and state legislature.
In addition, four other states (Mississippi, North Carolina, South Carolina and Virginia) will hold their primaries or primary runoffs, but there are no special races of note that we’ll be watching closely. Regardless, don’t wait up late tonight for results; because the coronavirus has forced most states to conduct elections predominantly by absentee ballot, it could take more than a week to learn who won the day’s biggest races. New York won’t start counting its absentee ballots until June 30, and at least a third of Kentucky counties, including the two biggest, will not release any results until that date either.
Kentucky
The highest contested office on the ballot today is the Democratic primary for U.S. Senate in the Bluegrass State. For months, Amy McGrath, a former Marine who gained national attention for her strong but unsuccessful House run in 2018, seemed like a shoo-in for the Democratic nomination to take on Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell. Helped by her own national following, an intense Democratic desire to defeat McConnell and the backing of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, McGrath raised massive sums of money for the race — $41.1 million as of June 3, even more than McConnell. But locally, there were some signs of resistance to McGrath. A few Democrats in Kentucky’s state legislature have backed state Rep. Charles Booker, while some progressive activists support farmer and former Marine Mike Broihier.
Recently, however, Booker — who would be Kentucky’s first Black senator — has gained attention for speaking out about racial inequality at local protests against police violence, which have carried special meaning in Louisville as the hometown of Breonna Taylor, a young Black woman whom police shot and killed at her home in March. Booker’s leadership impressed the state’s two biggest newspapers, which endorsed him, and even galvanized progressives nationally: Ocasio-Cortez, Sen. Bernie Sanders and Sen. Elizabeth Warren endorsed Booker in the final weeks of the race. Now, polls show a tight race between McGrath and Booker, and it’s not clear which candidate will come out ahead. Either way, though, McConnell will remain a heavy favorite in November; he leads both McGrath and Booker by double digits in hypothetical matchups.
New York
The Empire State has 10 House races we’re watching, including eight matchups between establishment and insurgent candidates and five incumbents who could theoretically lose their safe seats.
The most direct clash between the two wings of the party is in the 16th District, where 16-term Rep. Eliot Engel is being challenged by former middle school principal Jamaal Bowman. Unlike some other Democrats who have faced progressive primary challenges this year, Engel is pretty liberal (according to DW-Nominate, he’s more liberal than 64 percent of the current House Democratic Caucus), and he has the support of former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Gov. Andrew Cuomo. However, Engel has been criticized for neglecting his district; he rode out the first two months of the pandemic in Washington, D.C., even as his Bronx- and Westchester County-based district became a coronavirus hotspot, and a hot mic caught him pleading to speak at a press conference about the anti-police-violence protests by saying, “if I didn’t have a primary, I wouldn’t care.”
FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast: Progressives challenge the Democratic establishment
That gaffe, plus another progressive challenger dropping out and endorsing Bowman, gave Bowman momentum; the Justice Democrats and the Working Families Party had been backing Bowman for months, but he also now has the support of Ocasio-Cortez, Sanders and The New York Times editorial board. Bowman’s campaign says it also raised more than $600,000 from June 1-12, although Engel had spent more and had more cash on hand as of June 3. And a Data for Progress poll conducted for Bowman gave the challenger a surprisingly wide 10-point lead, although Engel’s campaign claims that its internal polls show Engel ahead.
A few of New York City’s other incumbents also face notable challenges, though a lack of polling means it’s hard to gauge how serious they are.
In two other dark-blue open seats, many liberals are fighting to prevent the nomination from going to someone who might actually vote with Republicans. In the South Bronx 15th District, New York City Council Member Rubén Díaz, Sr., is a conservative Democrat who opposes abortion, has claimed that city government is “controlled by the homosexual community” and is openly considering a vote for Trump this fall. But as the patriarch of a Bronx political dynasty — he represented the area in the state Senate for 15 years, and his son is now borough president — Díaz has enough of a base to be a front-runner in the fractured, 12-candidate field.
Liberals are split on their preferred alternative: Ocasio-Cortez and Sanders endorsed affordable-housing activist Samelys López, while the Black political establishment has rallied around Assemblyman Michael Blake. And symbolic of Democrats’ indecision, the political arm of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus is backing New York City Council Member Ritchie Torres, but the caucus’s chair, Rep. Joaquin Castro, has endorsed former City Council Speaker Melissa Mark-Viverito. Torres, the Bronx’s first openly LGBT elected official, may be the candidate best positioned to beat Díaz. As of June 3, he had spent the most money in the race, at $856,531 (although Blake was not far behind at $705,648). And a Data for Progress poll in May found Díaz with 22 percent, Torres with 20 percent and no other candidate above 6 percent. However, 34 percent of likely voters were still undecided.
[Related: Our 2020 National Polling Averages]
Up the Hudson River, in the suburban 17th District, state Sen. David Carlucci is likewise a top contender for the Democratic nod — despite his seven years as a member of the Independent Democratic Conference, a breakaway group of Democrats who handed control of the state Senate to Republicans. But after multiple polls showed Carlucci in strong position, progressives (including Ocasio-Cortez) united behind attorney Mondaire Jones, and Jones took 25 percent to Carlucci’s 11 percent in a more recent Public Policy Polling survey. However, at 14 percent each in the poll, former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense Evelyn Farkas and former Assistant U.S. Attorney Adam Schleifer are still in the hunt as well. Schleifer in particular has one big advantage: millions of dollars in pharmaceutical stock. He has invested almost $4 million of his own money in his campaign, allowing him to spend four times more than any other candidate.
All the seats above will almost certainly remain in Democratic hands this fall no matter who wins the primary. But upstate, in the Syracuse-based 24th District, Democrats’ choice of nominee could affect their chances against vulnerable GOP Rep. John Katko. The two main Democratic candidates, professor Dana Balter and Navy veteran Francis Conole, disagree on only a few things: health care (Balter supports Medicare for All, Conole a public option) and who is more electable. (As the Democrats’ previous nominee, Balter lost to Katko by 5 points in 2018, even though the district had voted for Clinton by nearly 4 points two years earlier. However, that was a stronger performance than Katko’s 2016 opponent, even after adjusting for the national environment.) As of June 3, the two had spent similar sums of money (around $700,000), but Balter’s name recognition may carry the day: According to a GBAO Strategies poll for her campaign, she led 60 percent to 31 percent as of early June.
The parties will also decide their nominees in four other New York swing seats: the 1st, 2nd, 11th and 22nd. Of these, only the Democratic primary in the 1st District, which covers eastern Long Island, is in any real doubt. The initial front-runner seemed to be businessman Perry Gershon, who lost to GOP Rep. Lee Zeldin here by 4 points in 2018. But self-funding chemistry professor Nancy Goroff outspent him $1.6 million to $979,063, and as of late May Goroff’s internal polling showed the two roughly tied. Suffolk County Legislator Bridget Fleming then responded with her own internal poll giving herself and Goroff 29 percent each, with Gershon at 22 percent. Fleming spent just $598,608 but earned a notable endorsement from progressive actor Cynthia Nixon.
If you’ve read this far, you might also be interested in one non-primary election happening Tuesday. Nine months after ex-Rep. Chris Collins resigned and pleaded guilty to insider trading, New York’s 27th District is finally holding a special election to replace him. The GOP tapped state Sen. Chris Jacobs as its nominee in January, while Democrats are fielding former Grand Island Town Supervisor Nate McMurray, who came within 1,088 votes of unseating Collins in 2018. However, Jacobs is a far less damaged candidate than Collins was, and Trump carried this Western New York seat by 24 points. Therefore, Jacobs is a heavy favorite to win, but the exact margin will be worth watching as a barometer of the national mood. So far this cycle, despite wide Democratic leads in presidential and congressional generic ballot polls, special-election results have not indicated a consistent Democratic overperformance.


fivethirthyeight--2020-06-23--The Debate Over Biden’s VP Pick Is Full Of Half-Truths And Misleading Arguments

People who want Sen. Kamala Harris or another Black woman to be former Vice President Joe Biden ’ s running mate often claim that a Black woman will substantially boost enthusiasm among Black voters .
Supporters of Sen. Elizabeth Warren for vice presidential nominee say that she will help Biden solidify support with younger voters and people who supported Sen. Bernie Sanders during the Democratic primaries .
Others say Harris or Warren or other candidates will doom Biden with voting bloc X or fail to help him with group Z .
Almost every case for or against a particular vice @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
But most of these electoral claims are highly contestable , at best .
It ’ s not that they should be dismissed out of hand .
They matter .
But as people in the Democratic Party advance their preferred candidates , they ’ re also doing a bit of hiding the ball .
Electoral claims — “ Person X will help win Michigan ” — are often seen as objective and fact-based , even when they ’ re flimsy .
But there are more obvious , non-electoral , cases for running mates @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
So let ’ s unpack some of the pitches being made for vice presidential nominees and what might actually be motivating them .
VP candidate ( s ) being promoted : Black women such as former Georgia House Minority Leader Stacey Abrams , Atlanta Mayor Keisha Bottoms , U.S. Rep. Val Demings of Florida , Harris and former National Security Adviser Susan Rice .
Advocates : Prominent Black female political pundits and Democratic strategists such as former interim Democratic National Committee chair Donna Brazile ; political commentators like Jonathan Capehart and Angela @ @ @ @ @ @ @ as Rep. James Clyburn and Rep. Alcee Hastings ; other liberal , Black figures such as the Rev .
Jesse Jackson .
The main public argument : Black turnout will increase with a Black woman on the ticket .
The real main argument : Representation .
Democrats owe this to Black women .
Could a Black woman help boost turnout among Black voters , which dipped in 2016 compared to 2012 ?
Maybe .
Some political science research shows that Black people vote at higher rates when a Black candidate is on the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ contested , and that research is about voting for a Black candidate , not a white candidate with a Black running mate .
That said , basically the only thing that Abrams , Bottoms , Demings , Rice and Harris have in common is that they are Black , women , and reportedly being considered as running mates by the Biden campaign .
It ’ s really hard to claim that both Demings and Rice — the latter of whom has never even run for elected office — would obviously generate an electoral @ @ @ @ @ @ @ be of similar size .
If the goal is to pick someone with skill in appealing to Black voters in particular , Abrams would seem to be head and shoulders above the rest of these Black women .
She ran for governor and nearly won in a state with a huge Black population , in an election that saw a surge in Black voter turnout that was likely the result of her campaign .
[ Related : How Will Biden Choose His Running Mate ? ]
So why have people been calling for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Biden with Black voters , rather than homing in on a specific Black woman ?
Because the real case that ’ s being made is that Biden should pick a Black woman because it ’ s the just , moral and right thing to do — electoral considerations aside .
There are two ideas at play here .
First , there is what a Black female vice presidential candidate ( and vice president ) would mean for Black women in America .
Political scientists have enumerated lots of kinds of political representation , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ descriptive representation , ” or how similar an elected official is to the people voting for them ( so a Black female candidate ’ s physical presence would represent Black women ) , and “ symbolic representation , ” or what a candidate stands for in the minds of voters ( so a Black female candidate could represent a step toward equality for Black women and also represent the political attitudes and behaviors of Black women ) .
Both kinds of representation could be achieved if Biden chooses a Black woman as @ @ @ @ @ @ @ choosing a Black woman would be a nod toward both addressing the historic underrepresentation of Black women in high levels of American politics and rewarding Black women for their historic loyalty to the Democratic Party .
“ Though we have propped up the Democratic Party for decades , the return on our investment in the party might as well read , ‘ insufficient funds , ’ ” Rye and a group of other prominent Black women Democrats wrote in an op-ed in The Washington Post in May , urging Biden to pick a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ Those days are over .
We are here to collect , ” they continued .
“ Very simply , Vice President Biden : You owe us , you need us and you must not take our votes for granted — they must be earned.
” The attention on racial inequality in the wake of the killing of George Floyd in Minneapolis has further galvanized Black Democrats around this view .
But there is another huge factor , one that existed before Floyd ’ s death : the presence of Harris .
A @ @ @ @ @ @ @ presidency is being a sitting or former governor or U.S. senator .
And many previous vice presidential candidates had run for president ( or at least tested the waters ) themselves , both raising their national profiles and usually demonstrating some competency in talking about major policy issues , even if their campaigns were ultimately unsuccessful .
But no state has ever had a Black woman as governor , and only two Black women — Carol Moseley Braun of Illinois and Harris — have ever been a U.S. senator .
So Harris , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in U.S. history , has the most traditional qualifications to be the vice presidential nominee .
In other words , this is a unique opportunity for anyone who wants to see a Black woman on the national ticket or serving as vice president — and they know it .
Anyone who is making a case for a Black woman to be Biden ’ s running mate is implicitly making a case for Harris — she is by far the most qualified candidate , at least by the criteria historically applied in the veepstakes @ @ @ @ @ @ @ promoted : Abrams , Bottoms , Demings , Harris , Rice .
Advocates : More centrist white Democrats such as Sen. Amy Klobuchar and ex-Sen. Heidi Heitkamp .
The main public argument : A Black woman must be on the ticket in the wake of the Floyd protests .
The real main argument : They oppose Warren being on the ticket on policy grounds .
As we wrote earlier this year , there is some evidence that a VP nominee can boost the ticket by about 2 or 3 points in her home @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , before Floyd ’ s death , revolved around fairly weak claims made by reporters , columnists and various Democrats and Trump-skeptical Republicans that choosing a nominee from the Midwest such as Sen. Amy Klobuchar or Gov .
Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan would boost Biden throughout that region .
At the same time , some Democratic Party big donors argued that Warren specifically would hurt Biden electorally , so he should pick basically anyone else — even as polls suggested that a Biden-Warren ticket was just as strong as or stronger than a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ presidential candidates .
The Floyd protests and the resulting conversation about racial issues has tamped down talk of Democrats picking a white Midwestern woman .
The post-Floyd focus on racial inequality effectively ended Klobuchar ’ s chances of being the vice presidential nominee .
She had been the top prosecutor in Hennepin County , which includes Minneapolis , which is now at the center of America ’ s debate on race and policing .
Civil rights activists have criticized Klobuchar for rarely bringing charges against police officers in incidents when they injured or @ @ @ @ @ @ @ announced that she no longer wanted to be considered for the vice presidency ( she seemed very unlikely to be chosen ) and urged Biden to “ put a woman of color on that ticket ” in part to “ heal this nation right now.
” Other white Democratic moderates and white , Trump-skeptical Republicans are making the same case now too — or least hinting at it .
( Despite Klobuchar ’ s use of the term “ woman of color , ” the push is really for a Black woman .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ American and Black . )
I ’ m skeptical of the sincerity of the people pushing for a Black woman now and tying the push to the Floyd protests .
The representational case for a Black woman makes some sense and was being made by many prominent Black Democrats like Clyburn and Rye before Floyd ’ s death .
But the idea that a woman ( or person ) of color will heal the nation seems fantastical .
( Were these people alive from 2009-2016 ? )
And the idea that Abrams , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ women being considered have roughly equal abilities to heal the nation in the midst of the Floyd protests ( which is why advocates of this idea don ’ t feel the need to name a specific woman ) seems fairly unfounded too .
So what ’ s actually going on here ?
An-Anybody-But-Warren campaign , with people wary of the Massachusetts senator becoming the vice presidential nominee arguably finding a new rationale to prevent her from being on the ticket .
Warren has been clashing with America ’ s political and financial elite @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are wary of her becoming the vice president for a 77-year-old man who may not seek a second term , meaning she might very well become president .
But her critics have little incentive to make that case in a straightforward way .
It ’ s less controversial to publicly say , “ We need a Black woman like Harris because America is divided on racial issues , ” than “ I oppose the fairly popular idea of a wealth tax because many of my clients in my lobbying job are very wealthy @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Warren anywhere near the White House.
” But making the first argument accomplishes the goal of the second .
A lot of Democrats opposed Sanders and Warren on ideological grounds during the primary , and those people haven ’ t gone away .
I can ’ t prove that those people were lying or being disingenuous in touting Klobuchar or Whitmer ’ s appeal to moderate voters or Warren ’ s potential electoral downsides before Floyd ’ s death .
Perhaps their interest in a Black woman as VP is sincere now .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ She cast Warren as too liberal throughout the Democratic primary when the two women were rivals , blasted Medicare for All , which Warren supported , and never embraced other Warren-backed ideas like a wealth tax or breaking up Facebook .
And Klobuchar , who has long positioned herself as a more centrist Democrat , has probably read Biden ’ s list of potential running mates like you and I have , and that list doesn ’ t include more liberal Black women like U.S. Reps. Barbara Lee or Ayanna Pressley .
Inherently @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to pick a woman of color is also a call to pick someone like Harris or Rice , who have each taken fewer very-liberal stands than Warren — and I suspect Klobuchar knows this .
VP candidate ( s ) being promoted : Warren .
Advocates : Progressive activists like actress Jane Fonda , grassroots organizer Taj James , former Labor secretary Robert Reich , Columbia University law professor Timothy Wu , leaders of progressive groups like African Communities Together , Democracy for America , the Sunrise Movement , Win Without War .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ boost the ticket electorally .
The real main argument : They support Warren on policy grounds .
Progressive groups like Data for Progress and Indivisible are releasing polls and surveys that make three core arguments : • Warren is the most popular VP choice among Democrats , particularly younger Democrats , voters who supported Sanders during the primaries and core party activists ; • Warren is about as popular a VP choice among Black voters as any of the other potential candidates ; and • Warren is more popular than Harris specifically with @ @ @ @ @ @ @ hoping to get to turn out to vote in higher numbers and who seem kind of blah about Biden .
The progressives ’ arguments are supported by some other polling as well .
So they have a point .
These surveys are useful in that they illustrate that Black political figures like Clyburn pushing for a Black woman on the ticket are not necessarily representative of Black voters overall , particularly younger ones .
This polling , along with Warren ’ s popularity with some prominent Black progressives — which Klobuchar lacked even @ @ @ @ @ @ @ explains why the Massachusetts senator has not felt pressure to back out of the VP process even as more people call for a Black woman to be picked .
That said , the pro-Warren electoral argument from progressives is fairly weak .
Looking at the data , it doesn ’ t appear that Black Democrats are really clamoring for Warren to be the VP .
What ’ s most clear is that none of these potential VP candidates , neither the Black ones nor the non-Black ones , are the clear choice for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Warren all did terribly among Black Democrats when they ran for president themselves .
Also , of course Warren is ahead of Bottoms and Demings among Black Democrats in polls about the vice presidency !
Bottoms and Demings have not been major figures in national politics until recently , so many Democrats , Black and non-Black , likely have no idea who they are !
What ’ s really going on here : Progressives want Warren because she has a more liberal record than any of the other potential vice presidential candidates being @ @ @ @ @ @ @ want a Black woman on the ticket as a show of appreciation for Black women just said that and left the predictions about Black turnout out of it ?
What if the centrists just said they don ’ t want Warren because she is too liberal ?
What if liberals just said they want Warren because she is a lefty ?
Here ’ s why : The Democratic Party struggled to resolve major divides about policy and identity during the 2020 primary .
Those divides still exist .
Biden won the nomination because @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to agree that they were uncomfortable with Sanders being the party ’ s standard-bearer .
But the more liberal and more centrist wings of the party still disagree on policy — and some of the party ’ s Black activists still feel like the party ’ s largely white leadership takes Black support for granted , and therefore does little to advance Black interests .
That ’ s what the veepstakes is really about .
Debates over electoral strategy obscure an argument about values and ideals .

Perry Bacon Jr. (perry.bacon@fivethirtyeight.com)

People who want Sen. Kamala Harris or another Black woman to be former Vice President Joe Biden’s running mate often claim that a Black woman will substantially boost enthusiasm among Black voters. Supporters of Sen. Elizabeth Warren for vice presidential nominee say that she will help Biden solidify support with younger voters and people who supported Sen. Bernie Sanders during the Democratic primaries. Others say Harris or Warren or other candidates will doom Biden with voting bloc X or fail to help him with group Z.
Almost every case for or against a particular vice presidential candidate comes with an electoral argument. But most of these electoral claims are highly contestable, at best. It’s not that they should be dismissed out of hand. They matter. But as people in the Democratic Party advance their preferred candidates, they’re also doing a bit of hiding the ball. Electoral claims — “Person X will help win Michigan” — are often seen as objective and fact-based, even when they’re flimsy. But there are more obvious, non-electoral, cases for running mates that tend not to be voiced outright.
So let’s unpack some of the pitches being made for vice presidential nominees and what might actually be motivating them.
The case for a Black woman
VP candidate(s) being promoted: Black women such as former Georgia House Minority Leader Stacey Abrams, Atlanta Mayor Keisha Bottoms, U.S. Rep. Val Demings of Florida, Harris and former National Security Adviser Susan Rice.
Advocates: Prominent Black female political pundits and Democratic strategists such as former interim Democratic National Committee chair Donna Brazile; political commentators like Jonathan Capehart and Angela Rye; more establishment Black politicians such as Rep. James Clyburn and Rep. Alcee Hastings; other liberal, Black figures such as the Rev. Jesse Jackson.
The main public argument: Black turnout will increase with a Black woman on the ticket.
The real main argument: Representation. Democrats owe this to Black women.
Could a Black woman help boost turnout among Black voters, which dipped in 2016 compared to 2012? Maybe. Some political science research shows that Black people vote at higher rates when a Black candidate is on the ballot, although that finding is somewhat contested, and that research is about voting for a Black candidate, not a white candidate with a Black running mate.
That said, basically the only thing that Abrams, Bottoms, Demings, Rice and Harris have in common is that they are Black, women, and reportedly being considered as running mates by the Biden campaign. It’s really hard to claim that both Demings and Rice — the latter of whom has never even run for elected office — would obviously generate an electoral boost, and that those boosts would be of similar size. If the goal is to pick someone with skill in appealing to Black voters in particular, Abrams would seem to be head and shoulders above the rest of these Black women. She ran for governor and nearly won in a state with a huge Black population, in an election that saw a surge in Black voter turnout that was likely the result of her campaign.
[Related: How Will Biden Choose His Running Mate?]
So why have people been calling for a Black woman generically to help boost Biden with Black voters, rather than homing in on a specific Black woman?
Because the real case that’s being made is that Biden should pick a Black woman because it’s the just, moral and right thing to do — electoral considerations aside. There are two ideas at play here. First, there is what a Black female vice presidential candidate (and vice president) would mean for Black women in America. Political scientists have enumerated lots of kinds of political representation, and at least two apply here: “descriptive representation,” or how similar an elected official is to the people voting for them (so a Black female candidate’s physical presence would represent Black women), and “symbolic representation,” or what a candidate stands for in the minds of voters (so a Black female candidate could represent a step toward equality for Black women and also represent the political attitudes and behaviors of Black women). Both kinds of representation could be achieved if Biden chooses a Black woman as his running mate.
Secondly, Biden choosing a Black woman would be a nod toward both addressing the historic underrepresentation of Black women in high levels of American politics and rewarding Black women for their historic loyalty to the Democratic Party.
“Though we have propped up the Democratic Party for decades, the return on our investment in the party might as well read, ‘insufficient funds,’” Rye and a group of other prominent Black women Democrats wrote in an op-ed in The Washington Post in May, urging Biden to pick a Black woman as his running mate.
“Those days are over. We are here to collect,” they continued. “Very simply, Vice President Biden: You owe us, you need us and you must not take our votes for granted — they must be earned.”
The attention on racial inequality in the wake of the killing of George Floyd in Minneapolis has further galvanized Black Democrats around this view. But there is another huge factor, one that existed before Floyd’s death: the presence of Harris.
A traditional qualification for nomination to the vice presidency is being a sitting or former governor or U.S. senator. And many previous vice presidential candidates had run for president (or at least tested the waters) themselves, both raising their national profiles and usually demonstrating some competency in talking about major policy issues, even if their campaigns were ultimately unsuccessful. But no state has ever had a Black woman as governor, and only two Black women — Carol Moseley Braun of Illinois and Harris — have ever been a U.S. senator.
So Harris, unlike all but one other Black woman in U.S. history, has the most traditional qualifications to be the vice presidential nominee. In other words, this is a unique opportunity for anyone who wants to see a Black woman on the national ticket or serving as vice president — and they know it. Anyone who is making a case for a Black woman to be Biden’s running mate is implicitly making a case for Harris — she is by far the most qualified candidate, at least by the criteria historically applied in the veepstakes.
The case for not-Warren
VP candidate(s) being promoted: Abrams, Bottoms, Demings, Harris, Rice.
Advocates: More centrist white Democrats such as Sen. Amy Klobuchar and ex-Sen. Heidi Heitkamp.
The main public argument: A Black woman must be on the ticket in the wake of the Floyd protests.
The real main argument: They oppose Warren being on the ticket on policy grounds.
As we wrote earlier this year, there is some evidence that a VP nominee can boost the ticket by about 2 or 3 points in her home state. But much of the veepstakes, before Floyd’s death, revolved around fairly weak claims made by reporters, columnists and various Democrats and Trump-skeptical Republicans that choosing a nominee from the Midwest such as Sen. Amy Klobuchar or Gov. Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan would boost Biden throughout that region. At the same time, some Democratic Party big donors argued that Warren specifically would hurt Biden electorally, so he should pick basically anyone else — even as polls suggested that a Biden-Warren ticket was just as strong as or stronger than a ticket pairing Biden with other potential vice presidential candidates.
The Floyd protests and the resulting conversation about racial issues has tamped down talk of Democrats picking a white Midwestern woman. The post-Floyd focus on racial inequality effectively ended Klobuchar’s chances of being the vice presidential nominee. She had been the top prosecutor in Hennepin County, which includes Minneapolis, which is now at the center of America’s debate on race and policing. Civil rights activists have criticized Klobuchar for rarely bringing charges against police officers in incidents when they injured or killed civilians. So Klobuchar on Thursday announced that she no longer wanted to be considered for the vice presidency (she seemed very unlikely to be chosen) and urged Biden to “put a woman of color on that ticket” in part to “heal this nation right now.”
Other white Democratic moderates and white, Trump-skeptical Republicans are making the same case now too — or least hinting at it. (Despite Klobuchar’s use of the term “woman of color,” the push is really for a Black woman. We should emphasize Harris is both Asian American and Black.)
I’m skeptical of the sincerity of the people pushing for a Black woman now and tying the push to the Floyd protests. The representational case for a Black woman makes some sense and was being made by many prominent Black Democrats like Clyburn and Rye before Floyd’s death. But the idea that a woman (or person) of color will heal the nation seems fantastical. (Were these people alive from 2009-2016?) And the idea that Abrams, Bottoms or any of the other Black women being considered have roughly equal abilities to heal the nation in the midst of the Floyd protests (which is why advocates of this idea don’t feel the need to name a specific woman) seems fairly unfounded too.
[Related: Our 2020 National Polling Averages]
So what’s actually going on here? An-Anybody-But-Warren campaign, with people wary of the Massachusetts senator becoming the vice presidential nominee arguably finding a new rationale to prevent her from being on the ticket.
Warren has been clashing with America’s political and financial elite for years. Many of those people are wary of her becoming the vice president for a 77-year-old man who may not seek a second term, meaning she might very well become president.
But her critics have little incentive to make that case in a straightforward way. It’s less controversial to publicly say, “We need a Black woman like Harris because America is divided on racial issues,” than “I oppose the fairly popular idea of a wealth tax because many of my clients in my lobbying job are very wealthy, so I don’t want Warren anywhere near the White House.” But making the first argument accomplishes the goal of the second.
A lot of Democrats opposed Sanders and Warren on ideological grounds during the primary, and those people haven’t gone away. I can’t prove that those people were lying or being disingenuous in touting Klobuchar or Whitmer’s appeal to moderate voters or Warren’s potential electoral downsides before Floyd’s death. Perhaps their interest in a Black woman as VP is sincere now.
But take Klobuchar as an example. She cast Warren as too liberal throughout the Democratic primary when the two women were rivals, blasted Medicare for All, which Warren supported, and never embraced other Warren-backed ideas like a wealth tax or breaking up Facebook. And Klobuchar, who has long positioned herself as a more centrist Democrat, has probably read Biden’s list of potential running mates like you and I have, and that list doesn’t include more liberal Black women like U.S. Reps. Barbara Lee or Ayanna Pressley.
Inherently, then, Klobuchar’s plea to pick a woman of color is also a call to pick someone like Harris or Rice, who have each taken fewer very-liberal stands than Warren — and I suspect Klobuchar knows this.
The case for Warren
VP candidate(s) being promoted: Warren.
Advocates: Progressive activists like actress Jane Fonda, grassroots organizer Taj James, former Labor secretary Robert Reich, Columbia University law professor Timothy Wu, leaders of progressive groups like African Communities Together, Democracy for America, the Sunrise Movement, Win Without War.
The main public argument: Warren will boost the ticket electorally.
The real main argument: They support Warren on policy grounds.
Progressive groups like Data for Progress and Indivisible are releasing polls and surveys that make three core arguments:
Warren is the most popular VP choice among Democrats, particularly younger Democrats, voters who supported Sanders during the primaries and core party activists; Warren is about as popular a VP choice among Black voters as any of the other potential candidates; and Warren is more popular than Harris specifically with young Black voters, who Democrats are hoping to get to turn out to vote in higher numbers and who seem kind of blah about Biden.
The progressives’ arguments are supported by some other polling as well. So they have a point. These surveys are useful in that they illustrate that Black political figures like Clyburn pushing for a Black woman on the ticket are not necessarily representative of Black voters overall, particularly younger ones. This polling, along with Warren’s popularity with some prominent Black progressives — which Klobuchar lacked even before Floyd’s death — help explains why the Massachusetts senator has not felt pressure to back out of the VP process even as more people call for a Black woman to be picked.
That said, the pro-Warren electoral argument from progressives is fairly weak. Looking at the data, it doesn’t appear that Black Democrats are really clamoring for Warren to be the VP. What’s most clear is that none of these potential VP candidates, neither the Black ones nor the non-Black ones, are the clear choice for Black Democrats. Harris, Klobuchar and Warren all did terribly among Black Democrats when they ran for president themselves.
Also, of course Warren is ahead of Bottoms and Demings among Black Democrats in polls about the vice presidency! Bottoms and Demings have not been major figures in national politics until recently, so many Democrats, Black and non-Black, likely have no idea who they are!
What’s really going on here: Progressives want Warren because she has a more liberal record than any of the other potential vice presidential candidates being considered.
What if the people who want a Black woman on the ticket as a show of appreciation for Black women just said that and left the predictions about Black turnout out of it? What if the centrists just said they don’t want Warren because she is too liberal? What if liberals just said they want Warren because she is a lefty?
Here’s why: The Democratic Party struggled to resolve major divides about policy and identity during the 2020 primary. Those divides still exist. Biden won the nomination because various factions in the party were able to agree that they were uncomfortable with Sanders being the party’s standard-bearer. But the more liberal and more centrist wings of the party still disagree on policy — and some of the party’s Black activists still feel like the party’s largely white leadership takes Black support for granted, and therefore does little to advance Black interests. That’s what the veepstakes is really about. Debates over electoral strategy obscure an argument about values and ideals.
FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast: Progressives challenge the Democratic establishment


fivethirthyeight--2020-06-23--Baseball Is Coming Back! Probably!

Baseball Is Coming Back! Probably!

Major League Baseball ’ s owners have approved a restart plan for MLB and , in keeping with the acrimony and suspicion between management and the players we ’ ve seen for the past three months , sent it as more or less an ultimatum to the players association .
But it does mean the sport is coming back .
Probably !
The plan includes a 60-game season beginning at the end of July followed by the regular 10-team playoff .
While a season capped at 60 games would have denied the Washington Nationals a title last year , the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of baseball games is equivalent to about 11 NBA games or 10 NFL games .
It will be enough to have some sense of who the best teams are , even if in baseball the best teams win the World Series only about 25 percent of the time .
While the Hot Takedown team shudders to contemplate a chaotic run to the title by , say , the Miami Marlins , it is excited to see Mookie Betts in a Dodgers uniform , to watch Mike Trout ’ s quest for a single @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the more rotten cheaters are : the Astros or the Yankees .
Next , we take a broader look at how sports are handling the coronavirus now that a wide array of activities are reopening .
The team agrees that football , which hasn ’ t really had to ( publicly ) reckon with the challenges to ensure the safety of all its participants , has the most problems ahead of it — particularly college football , where rosters are even larger and social distancing protocols harder to enforce .
But even with @ @ @ @ @ @ @ spitting sunflower seeds you could ask for , a lot of the risk of spreading the virus depends on what happens when players travel to the court or the field , not what happens on it .
The health risks of the virus probably won ’ t stop most sports from happening , but as demonstrated by Novak Djokovic ’ s ill-fated exhibition tournament , which left three tennis players ( including Djokovic ) and two coaches testing positive for the virus , COVID-19 isn ’ t going away any time soon .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ makes a triumphant return to the Rabbit Hole to talk about how the NBA , largely seen as the most socially conscious major sports league , has actually dropped the ball when it comes to hiring Black coaches and general managers .
Some of it might be down to the rise in analytics leading to more “ nontraditional ” hires , who have been mostly white in the past few years .
But because most Black coaches are former players , the myth that they aren ’ t as up on modern methods @ @ @ @ @ @ @ hiring .
That myth could change in a decade or so when Steph Curry or James Harden are ready to coach .
But we all agree with Santul : The league shouldn ’ t wait .
What we ’ re looking at this week : • Neil on the MLB players we can ’ t wait to watch when the season finally starts .
• FiveThirtyEight ’ s Travis Sawchik on what a short season means for MLB .
• And Santul on the NBA ’ s problem with hiring — and retaining @ @ @ @

Major League Baseball’s owners have approved a restart plan for MLB and, in keeping with the acrimony and suspicion between management and the players we’ve seen for the past three months, sent it as more or less an ultimatum to the players association. But it does mean the sport is coming back. Probably! The plan includes a 60-game season beginning at the end of July followed by the regular 10-team playoff. While a season capped at 60 games would have denied the Washington Nationals a title last year, the information we can learn from that number of baseball games is equivalent to about 11 NBA games or 10 NFL games. It will be enough to have some sense of who the best teams are, even if in baseball the best teams win the World Series only about 25 percent of the time. While the Hot Takedown team shudders to contemplate a chaotic run to the title by, say, the Miami Marlins, it is excited to see Mookie Betts in a Dodgers uniform, to watch Mike Trout’s quest for a single playoff win, and to litigate who the more rotten cheaters are: the Astros or the Yankees.
Next, we take a broader look at how sports are handling the coronavirus now that a wide array of activities are reopening. The team agrees that football, which hasn’t really had to (publicly) reckon with the challenges to ensure the safety of all its participants, has the most problems ahead of it — particularly college football, where rosters are even larger and social distancing protocols harder to enforce. But even with all the bubble systems and bans on spitting sunflower seeds you could ask for, a lot of the risk of spreading the virus depends on what happens when players travel to the court or the field, not what happens on it. The health risks of the virus probably won’t stop most sports from happening, but as demonstrated by Novak Djokovic’s ill-fated exhibition tournament, which left three tennis players (including Djokovic) and two coaches testing positive for the virus, COVID-19 isn’t going away any time soon.
Finally, FiveThirtyEight copy editor Santul Nerkar makes a triumphant return to the Rabbit Hole to talk about how the NBA, largely seen as the most socially conscious major sports league, has actually dropped the ball when it comes to hiring Black coaches and general managers. Some of it might be down to the rise in analytics leading to more “nontraditional” hires, who have been mostly white in the past few years. But because most Black coaches are former players, the myth that they aren’t as up on modern methods might also contribute to the falloff in hiring. That myth could change in a decade or so when Steph Curry or James Harden are ready to coach. But we all agree with Santul: The league shouldn’t wait.
What we’re looking at this week: