fivethirthyeight--2020-09-14--We Knew A Football Team Would Win In Week 1. But Maybe Not ‘Football Team.’

sara.ziegler ( Sara Ziegler , sports editor ) : The NFL season started with fans in Kansas City booing a moment of unity and smoke from the wildfires that are devastating the West Coast threatening to postpone the 49ers-Cardinals game .
So guys , 2020 is still in full effect , even as football plays on .
One game is in the books for all but four NFL teams .
We don ’ t freak out about small sample sizes here at FiveThirtyEight … but when a small sample is all we have , we at least have to dissect @ @ @ @ @ @ @ start with what surprised you most in Week 1. neil ( Neil Paine , senior sportswriter ) : I guess we can dump on the Eagles early and get it out of the way .
joshua.hermsmeyer ( Josh Hermsmeyer , NFL analyst ) : Looking at our Elo ratings , the Eagles took a 48-point hit .
I don ’ t know for sure , but that seems really high for a Week 1 game .
Salfino ( Michael Salfino , FiveThirtyEight contributor ) : The Eagles had to pull a game out @ @ @ @ @ @ @ year , too .
So I can ’ t say I was shocked .
neil : Yeah , Mike , but blowing a 17-point lead against a team with no name ?
sara.ziegler : Is that what hurts more for Eagles fans , Neil ?
?
?
neil : Yes .
The fact that it was Washington made it way worse .
Salfino : Their name is “ Football Team.
” I like it .
Salfino : The Eagles had a really bad summer with injuries to their offensive line , and they @ @ @ @ @ @ @ putative bell cow .
So I ’ ve had a bad feeling about the Eagles for much of the past few weeks .
neil : But also , Carson Wentz and the offense did nothing from the second quarter onward .
Salfino : Oddly , they blew the big lead last year in Washington in Week 1 too .
🙂 neil : Maybe I ’ ve fully taken on the WIP listener mindset and I ’ m overreacting .
LOL Salfino : Oh , don ’ t get me wrong .
This is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ just am not surprised since it seems that the roof had leaks heading into the season .
neil : This was the second-worst game of Wentz ’ s career according to our QB Elo ratings — granted , he was under a ton of pressure , but that ’ s still not great .
Salfino : I would hate for Wentz to get trashed for this .
But he was bad against a team that on paper had a very bad secondary .
This is the textbook game that a franchise QB has @ @ @ @ @ @ @ he couldn ’ t do it .
As you say , Neil , the Washington pass rush can be a problem generally .
It was their one strength heading into 2020 , and they added to it .
Plus the patchwork offensive line exacerbated things .
joshua.hermsmeyer : My surprise of the week was the play of Josh Allen .
He had some egregious fumbles that looked absolutely comical , and he missed a wide-open John Brown in the end zone , but he also drew the Jets offsides with a hard count @ @ @ @ @ @ @ free play .
He hit Stefon Diggs on shorter passes and moved the team well .
The Bills actually missed two field goals .
And of course Allen ran the ball really well , which we should expect at this point .
Salfino : ( He also missed a wide-open Dawson Knox in the end zone , and those two fumbles were so careless . )
neil : That was like all of the good and bad of Allen wrapped into one game .
sara.ziegler : Just like last year , it ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the Bills are good or not .
Salfino : Yes , overall Allen was good .
It was the first Bills 300-yard passing game since Jack Kemp , I think .
OK , not that long , but it was a really long time .
Salfino : I do think the Bills are good .
neil : If you told Bills fans they would get 312 passing yards from Allen , even against the Jets , they ’ d be very happy .
That was a career high for him , easily .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ Bills is that they have a QB who makes mistakes and leaves easy plays on the field .
They are so solid everywhere that they ’ d be better off with a game manager .
But Allen does have elite hybrid traits .
He ’ s a very weird player .
sara.ziegler : I just can ’ t decide if that performance needs to be Jets-adjusted .
joshua.hermsmeyer : Exactly , Sara .
It would have been nice of the Jets to actually put up a fight .
I have one fun fact @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 69-yard screen pass to Jamison Crowder , and his stat line would be 20 for 34 for 146 yards and an INT .
Salfino : That ’ s fair , but the Jets defense isn ’ t bad .
Things weren ’ t easy for the Bills .
I thought they worked for it .
I ’ m not a fan of “ take away ” stats , tbh .
But Darnold was not good , for sure .
neil : Let ’ s just put it this way : The Bills had @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that game than the typical Jets opponent had per game last season .
That ’ s not bad !
Only the Packers — sorry , Sara !
— and Ravens had more passing EPA this week relative to their opponent ’ s 2019 average allowed : Salfino : You can tell a defense that doesn ’ t put up a fight by the rushing yards allowed , and the Jets characteristically shut down the Bills running backs .
The offense was a different story .
But so many offenses on Sunday looked really @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Jets after watching how the Bucs and Saints looked ?
Let ’ s talk about that Bucs-Saints game !
I was very excited to see Tom Brady , Mobile Quarterback , on that first touchdown .
Salfino : For the first time ever , I was hoping Taysom Hill was in for Drew Brees just to maybe get some life into the offense .
Brees couldn ’ t throw the ball 10 yards .
Brady had all of Jameis Winston ’ s characteristic mistakes without any of the big plays .
But give @ @ @ @ @ @ @ years on the field at quarterback , and it looked like 184 .
Salfino : Watching the end of Saints-Bucs , all I could think of is that Sean Payton is Cobra Kai .
( And then WR Michael Thomas got himself hurt . )
neil : For all the talk about Brady ’ s improved targets , the Bucs really struggled in the passing game .
Salfino : Mike Evans fantasy owners are in a tailspin , Neil .
One catch for 2 yards !
( OK , it was a TD @ @ @ @ @ @ @ pass interference call on a pretty good throw . )
neil : Yeah .
Brady 1-for-4 throwing to Evans .
And Rob Gronkowski was a non-factor , basically .
Salfino : And Evans looked healthy with the questionable hammy .
Gronk looked like an imposter .
joshua.hermsmeyer : Brady was throwing the ball wildly , seemed out of sync and also confused .
The Bucs are 24th in EPA per passing play so far in Week 1 , just ahead of the Jets .
Salfino : But again , maybe the story of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ shook off the cobwebs and some did not , and it ’ s not predictive even in the near-term ?
neil : Perhaps .
We laugh at the preseason , but it certainly must be tough to jump right into it straight from the offseason .
joshua.hermsmeyer : I think some things may end up being predictive .
The Ravens with a 32-point margin of victory over the Browns seems important .
If the Eagles didn ’ t exist , that would be the biggest egg laid on Sunday .
Salfino : The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
sara.ziegler : But the Browns ’ egg came against a team we expect to be one of the league ’ s best .
Doesn ’ t that mitigate it some ?
Salfino : Also the Ravens defense was not expected to be better than the Bills , was it ?
Maybe it ’ s me .
joshua.hermsmeyer : Lots of Jets apologia going on right now .
Salfino : Is Odell Beckham Jr. the new John Jefferson ?
A wide receiver on a Hall of Fame trajectory who just loses it at @ @ @ @ @ @ @ up , but how can that be ?
Ten targets for 22 yards .
Egads .
neil : It wouldn ’ t be one of these chats without harkening back to an old-school player .
Love it !
Salfino : But Jefferson is the only comp I can think of .
OBJ is having one of the weirdest careers in NFL history .
joshua.hermsmeyer : OBJ was injured last year , and it ’ s one week .
I think my prior is that he ’ s still good .
But are the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Less sure there .
Salfino : I thought we were ahead of ourselves with Baker in 2018 , but I ’ m not ready to throw him onto the scrap heap .
He has to stop the commercials .
Just pay them to stop airing them .
And he keeps distracting himself needlessly with stuff like the anthem that does not require his input .
Just play football .
sara.ziegler : One of my favorite Salfino Tropes is how much you hate those commercials .
Salfino : Doesn ’ t he sound like @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ?
neil : I just think every time we expect Mayfield to take a step forward , this happens .
Salfino : Except the first time , when he did step forward .
Look at what happened with MVP Mitch .
He had the toe tag on at least as a Bear in the fourth quarter Sunday , and then he makes history with an epic comeback .
It was the first time in more than 20 years that the Bears came back from down 17 in the fourth quarter ( also against @ @ @ @ @ @ @ second act for Trubisky ?
If so , maybe Baker can bounce back , too .
sara.ziegler : It was such a good encapsulation of both teams … except that the Bears actually won .
sara.ziegler : I heard one announcer say Mitch Trubisky ’ s performance in the fourth quarter proved that Matt Nagy was right to choose him as the starter .
Um … your thoughts ?
joshua.hermsmeyer : I think two things can be true : Mr. Biscuit had a good fourth quarter , and he should not be an @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Nick Foles have almost exactly the same Elo QB rating , LOL .
Salfino : The narrative that I actually buy ( and I generally hate narratives ) is that Trubisky is done with a benching to start the season , but Foles doesn ’ t care and thus comes in if Trubisky fails like his benching was nothing .
So it gives the Bears two outs instead of one at QB .
neil : I agree with that , Mike .
Coming in relief as the savior is basically Foles ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ with Foles .
That energizes him .
joshua.hermsmeyer : Nick has big off-the-bench energy , for sure .
sara.ziegler : What ’ s the over-under on Matt Patricia keeping his job in Detroit the full season , just based on that one game ?
joshua.hermsmeyer : I think Patricia is done .
I mean : neil : Maybe seven is too high .
Salfino : We have to note that Matthew Stafford came back and potentially won that game with seven seconds left , but rookie D ’ Andre Swift dropped one of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ zone .
neil : Just a brutal way to lose .
joshua.hermsmeyer : Good point , Mike .
Had the ball all but secured , turned his head and just dropped it .
sara.ziegler : I also love that the game included one of the world ’ s weirdest ejections : joshua.hermsmeyer : My cat hits me with his head harder than that tbh .
Yeah — and losing Jamie Collins , a former Pro Bowl linebacker , couldn ’ t have helped as the Lions were blowing that 23-6 lead .
sara.ziegler @ @ @ @ @ @ @ talk about that plucky little team from Massachusetts , the New England Patriots .
They seem to finally have themselves a real quarterback !
neil : I ’ m so glad something good could finally happen for the Patriots !
joshua.hermsmeyer : I wondered if the Pats would go run heavy with Cam Newton or try to stay balanced and pass a bit .
Turns out it was the former : They ran more than twice as often as they passed , and they lead all Week 1 teams with 42 rushing plays @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
neil : Yeah , the running game was very impressive .
First among all teams this week in rushing EPA .
sara.ziegler : This was the Running Patriots we were promised .
neil : You were right , Josh !
joshua.hermsmeyer : Neil , I was wrong thinking they wouldn ’ t use Cam near the end zone to protect him .
Salfino : The Patriots are going to go back to the early part of the century when the QB was mostly a game manager and occasional playmaker and they won @ @ @ @ @ @ @ works as long as Cam stays healthy , but I can ’ t imagine 160 carries at age 31 with his recent injury history .
neil : Yeah , that ’ s the part I worry about .
The Dolphins had the worst pass D by EPA last season , and Newton was efficient when called upon , but mainly they ran and ran .
That ’ s good when you control the game script but maybe not against tougher opponents .
Salfino : The Patriots ’ advantage is that no team has @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
The Patriots backs did little even yesterday .
joshua.hermsmeyer : Also , did you see the play where a Patriot fumbled through the end zone ?
I could feel Bill ’ s rage .
sara.ziegler : That guy is OFF THE TEAM .
Salfino : That was N ’ Keal Harry , who is just having a brutal start to his career .
Imagine if Bill Belichick could draft in the first round .
neil : I think we ’ ve probably noted how weird and bad that rule is before .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ Salfino : The Patriots bench you for that 100 percent .
Belichick is obsessed with not losing the ball there .
sara.ziegler : Back to Cam , I guess I ’ m expecting Belichick to do what he always does and scheme around the opposing defense ’ s weaknesses .
So I don ’ t think we ’ ll see this exact look every time , right ?
joshua.hermsmeyer : I think Miami is exactly the type of team you don ’ t open your playbook against .
So in that regard , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ m not sure they suddenly start passing heavily .
Salfino : Who are they throwing to ?
Salfino : Are the Niners in trouble ?
BRUTAL ending to that game for Jimmy Garoppolo .
neil : Jimmy G. is just going to fuel our doubts all year again , isn ’ t he ?
joshua.hermsmeyer : If Seattle continues to Let Russ Cook , the Niners are in trouble .
Salfino : After the overthrow to fail to win the Super Bowl , Garoppolo underthrows a wide-open Kendrick Bourne in the end @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Trent Taylor with 37 seconds left .
neil : I do wonder whether that game said more about the Cardinals than the Niners , though : 151 receiving yards for DeAndre Hopkins !
Kyler Murray passing and running !
They could be really interesting .
Salfino : Fantasy football was so down on Hopkins .
I get that changing teams is bad , but he had a massive upgrade at offensive coordinator and not that much of a QB downgrade .
He is the WR1 , the 1A and the 1B in Arizona @ @ @ @ @ @ @ thinking the Cards would be fun for a while now .
Murray has the weapon this year in Hopkins .
Salfino : The Niners had A LOT of trouble with Murray .
And now George Kittle is hurt again with a similar injury to the one he suffered last year against the Cardinals — it ’ s what ended up causing him to miss the next two games .
joshua.hermsmeyer : And Kyle Shanahan said he thought they did a good job containing Murray .
sara.ziegler : So it was a pretty eventful @ @ @ @ @ @ @ our sample size next week and have even more to discuss .
But let ’ s end it here before we have to talk about the Vikings — keep this chat a safe space .
Salfino : Did the Vikings throw a pass in the first half ?
Salfino : Mike Zimmer , man .
Hates the forward pass .
Wishes it were never invented .
And maybe hold off on those Aaron Rodgers obits .
sara.ziegler : Talk to you next week , guys !

We Knew A Football Team Would Win In Week 1. But Maybe Not ‘Football Team.’
sara.ziegler (Sara Ziegler, sports editor): The NFL season started with fans in Kansas City booing a moment of unity and smoke from the wildfires that are devastating the West Coast threatening to postpone the 49ers-Cardinals game. So guys, 2020 is still in full effect, even as football plays on.
One game is in the books for all but four NFL teams. We don’t freak out about small sample sizes here at FiveThirtyEight … but when a small sample is all we have, we at least have to dissect it thoroughly. So let’s start with what surprised you most in Week 1.
neil (Neil Paine, senior sportswriter): I guess we can dump on the Eagles early and get it out of the way.
joshua.hermsmeyer (Josh Hermsmeyer, NFL analyst): Looking at our Elo ratings, the Eagles took a 48-point hit. I don’t know for sure, but that seems really high for a Week 1 game.
Salfino (Michael Salfino, FiveThirtyEight contributor): The Eagles had to pull a game out of the fire in Week 1 last year, too. So I can’t say I was shocked.
neil: Yeah, Mike, but blowing a 17-point lead against a team with no name?
sara.ziegler: Is that what hurts more for Eagles fans, Neil???
neil: Yes. The fact that it was Washington made it way worse.
Salfino: Their name is “Football Team.” I like it.
It’s like “The Band.”
sara.ziegler: LOL
Salfino: The Eagles had a really bad summer with injuries to their offensive line, and they were also missing Miles Sanders, their putative bell cow. So I’ve had a bad feeling about the Eagles for much of the past few weeks.
neil: But also, Carson Wentz and the offense did nothing from the second quarter onward.
Salfino: Oddly, they blew the big lead last year in Washington in Week 1 too. 🙂
neil: Maybe I’ve fully taken on the WIP listener mindset and I’m overreacting. LOL
Salfino: Oh, don’t get me wrong. This is very bad for the Iggles. I just am not surprised since it seems that the roof had leaks heading into the season.
neil: This was the second-worst game of Wentz’s career according to our QB Elo ratings — granted, he was under a ton of pressure, but that’s still not great.
Carson Wentz’s not-so-greatest hits Worst games of Carson Wentz’s NFL career according to FiveThirtyEight’s quarterback Elo ratings, relative to an average starter Date Location Opponent Playoffs? QB Elo vs. Average Starter 11/18/2018 Away New Orleans -294.5 9/13/2020 Away Washington -249.7 1/5/2020 Home Seattle ✓ -216.9 10/16/2016 Away Washington -203.9 9/15/2019 Away Atlanta -114.8 11/20/2016 Away Seattle -112.1 10/20/2019 Away Dallas -108.4 12/18/2016 Away Baltimore -103.3 10/23/2016 Home Minnesota -97.5 QB Elo ratings are based on passing and rushing performance, adjusted for the quality of opposing defense. Source: ESPN Stats & Information Group
Salfino: I would hate for Wentz to get trashed for this. But he was bad against a team that on paper had a very bad secondary. This is the textbook game that a franchise QB has to pull out of the fire and he couldn’t do it.
As you say, Neil, the Washington pass rush can be a problem generally. It was their one strength heading into 2020, and they added to it. Plus the patchwork offensive line exacerbated things.
joshua.hermsmeyer: My surprise of the week was the play of Josh Allen. He had some egregious fumbles that looked absolutely comical, and he missed a wide-open John Brown in the end zone, but he also drew the Jets offsides with a hard count then took a deep shot on the free play. He hit Stefon Diggs on shorter passes and moved the team well. The Bills actually missed two field goals. And of course Allen ran the ball really well, which we should expect at this point.
Salfino: (He also missed a wide-open Dawson Knox in the end zone, and those two fumbles were so careless.)
neil: That was like all of the good and bad of Allen wrapped into one game.
sara.ziegler: Just like last year, it’s kind of hard to tell if the Bills are good or not.
Salfino: Yes, overall Allen was good. It was the first Bills 300-yard passing game since Jack Kemp, I think. OK, not that long, but it was a really long time.
joshua.hermsmeyer: Since 2014 in a non-overtime, regular-season game.
Salfino: I do think the Bills are good.
neil: If you told Bills fans they would get 312 passing yards from Allen, even against the Jets, they’d be very happy. That was a career high for him, easily.
Salfino: The only weakness for the Bills is that they have a QB who makes mistakes and leaves easy plays on the field. They are so solid everywhere that they’d be better off with a game manager. But Allen does have elite hybrid traits. He’s a very weird player.
sara.ziegler: I just can’t decide if that performance needs to be Jets-adjusted.
Sorry, Mike.
joshua.hermsmeyer: Exactly, Sara. It would have been nice of the Jets to actually put up a fight. I have one fun fact on Sam Darnold:
Take away the 69-yard screen pass to Jamison Crowder, and his stat line would be 20 for 34 for 146 yards and an INT.
Salfino: That’s fair, but the Jets defense isn’t bad. Things weren’t easy for the Bills. I thought they worked for it. I’m not a fan of “take away” stats, tbh. But Darnold was not good, for sure.
neil: Let’s just put it this way: The Bills had 12.5 more expected points added passing in that game than the typical Jets opponent had per game last season. That’s not bad! Only the Packers — sorry, Sara! — and Ravens had more passing EPA this week relative to their opponent’s 2019 average allowed:
Which passing offenses exceeded expectations? Most passing expected points added (EPA) relative to the opposing defense’s 2019 average allowed per game, in Week 1 of the 2020 season Team Pass EPA Opponent 2019 Avg. Allowed Pass EPA vs. Avg 1 Packers 20.55 Vikings -0.55 +21.10 2 Ravens 16.32 Browns 1.21 15.11 3 Bills 14.34 Jets 1.85 12.49 4 Seahawks 17.73 Falcons 6.11 11.62 5 Vikings 11.22 Packers 0.45 10.77 6 Raiders 10.17 Panthers 1.33 8.84 7 Falcons 9.89 Seahawks 2.05 7.84 8 Chiefs 13.87 Texans 6.29 7.58 9 Jaguars 9.02 Colts 3.42 5.60 10 Rams 5.98 Cowboys 1.23 4.75 Source: ESPN Stats & Information Group
Salfino: You can tell a defense that doesn’t put up a fight by the rushing yards allowed, and the Jets characteristically shut down the Bills running backs. The offense was a different story. But so many offenses on Sunday looked really bad. How can you kill the Jets after watching how the Bucs and Saints looked?
sara.ziegler: LOL, that’s fair.
Let’s talk about that Bucs-Saints game! I was very excited to see Tom Brady, Mobile Quarterback, on that first touchdown.
joshua.hermsmeyer: Brady looked his age.
Salfino: For the first time ever, I was hoping Taysom Hill was in for Drew Brees just to maybe get some life into the offense. Brees couldn’t throw the ball 10 yards.
Brady had all of Jameis Winston’s characteristic mistakes without any of the big plays. But give the 43-year-old time!
It was 84 years on the field at quarterback, and it looked like 184.
sara.ziegler: 🤣
Salfino: Watching the end of Saints-Bucs, all I could think of is that Sean Payton is Cobra Kai. (And then WR Michael Thomas got himself hurt.)
neil: For all the talk about Brady’s improved targets, the Bucs really struggled in the passing game.
Salfino: Mike Evans fantasy owners are in a tailspin, Neil. One catch for 2 yards! (OK, it was a TD, and he did draw a 45-yard pass interference call on a pretty good throw.)
neil: Yeah. Brady 1-for-4 throwing to Evans. And Rob Gronkowski was a non-factor, basically.
Salfino: And Evans looked healthy with the questionable hammy. Gronk looked like an imposter.
joshua.hermsmeyer: Brady was throwing the ball wildly, seemed out of sync and also confused. The Bucs are 24th in EPA per passing play so far in Week 1, just ahead of the Jets.
Salfino: But again, maybe the story of Week 1 is that some teams randomly shook off the cobwebs and some did not, and it’s not predictive even in the near-term?
neil: Perhaps. We laugh at the preseason, but it certainly must be tough to jump right into it straight from the offseason.
joshua.hermsmeyer: I think some things may end up being predictive. The Ravens with a 32-point margin of victory over the Browns seems important.
neil: Ooooof, Browns.
If the Eagles didn’t exist, that would be the biggest egg laid on Sunday.
Salfino: The Browns looked like the Jets times five.
sara.ziegler: But the Browns’ egg came against a team we expect to be one of the league’s best. Doesn’t that mitigate it some?
neil: True. But 6 points?
joshua.hermsmeyer: Against a defense without Earl Thomas.
Salfino: Also the Ravens defense was not expected to be better than the Bills, was it? Maybe it’s me.
joshua.hermsmeyer: Lots of Jets apologia going on right now.
Salfino: Is Odell Beckham Jr. the new John Jefferson? A wide receiver on a Hall of Fame trajectory who just loses it at a prime age? He seems washed up, but how can that be? Ten targets for 22 yards. Egads.
neil: It wouldn’t be one of these chats without harkening back to an old-school player. Love it!
Salfino: But Jefferson is the only comp I can think of. OBJ is having one of the weirdest careers in NFL history.
joshua.hermsmeyer: OBJ was injured last year, and it’s one week. I think my prior is that he’s still good. But are the Browns, and is Baker Mayfield? Less sure there.
Salfino: I thought we were ahead of ourselves with Baker in 2018, but I’m not ready to throw him onto the scrap heap. He has to stop the commercials. Just pay them to stop airing them. And he keeps distracting himself needlessly with stuff like the anthem that does not require his input. Just play football.
sara.ziegler: One of my favorite Salfino Tropes is how much you hate those commercials.
Salfino: Doesn’t he sound like Mark Wahlberg if you close your eyes?
sara.ziegler: LOLOL
neil: I just think every time we expect Mayfield to take a step forward, this happens.
Salfino: Except the first time, when he did step forward. Look at what happened with MVP Mitch. He had the toe tag on at least as a Bear in the fourth quarter Sunday, and then he makes history with an epic comeback. It was the first time in more than 20 years that the Bears came back from down 17 in the fourth quarter (also against the Lions). Was this a second act for Trubisky? If so, maybe Baker can bounce back, too.
sara.ziegler: Yeah, let’s talk about that Bears-Lions game.
neil: Oooooof, Lions.
sara.ziegler: It was such a good encapsulation of both teams … except that the Bears actually won.
Salfino: Mitch.
sara.ziegler: I heard one announcer say Mitch Trubisky’s performance in the fourth quarter proved that Matt Nagy was right to choose him as the starter. Um … your thoughts?
joshua.hermsmeyer: I think two things can be true: Mr. Biscuit had a good fourth quarter, and he should not be an NFL starter.
neil: He and Nick Foles have almost exactly the same Elo QB rating, LOL.
Salfino: The narrative that I actually buy (and I generally hate narratives) is that Trubisky is done with a benching to start the season, but Foles doesn’t care and thus comes in if Trubisky fails like his benching was nothing. So it gives the Bears two outs instead of one at QB.
neil: I agree with that, Mike. Coming in relief as the savior is basically Foles’s entire brand.
Salfino: So true with Foles. That energizes him.
joshua.hermsmeyer: Nick has big off-the-bench energy, for sure.
sara.ziegler: What’s the over-under on Matt Patricia keeping his job in Detroit the full season, just based on that one game?
neil: I give him seven games.
joshua.hermsmeyer: I think Patricia is done. I mean:
The Lions fired Jim Caldwell for going 9-7.
Matt Patricia took over and is now 9-23-1. — Michael David Smith (@MichaelDavSmith) September 13, 2020
neil: Maybe seven is too high.
Salfino: We have to note that Matthew Stafford came back and potentially won that game with seven seconds left, but rookie D’Andre Swift dropped one of the easiest catches imaginable in the end zone.
neil: Yup.
Salfino: Feel horrible for him.
neil: Just a brutal way to lose.
joshua.hermsmeyer: Good point, Mike. Had the ball all but secured, turned his head and just dropped it.
sara.ziegler: I also love that the game included one of the world’s weirdest ejections:
Obviously you can’t make contact with a ref. It should be a penalty by letter of the law. But can we apply some common sense? pic.twitter.com/H9OVQXw0A4 — Danny Parkins (@DannyParkins) September 13, 2020
(You know how I feel about that call based on the tweet I chose.)
joshua.hermsmeyer: My cat hits me with his head harder than that tbh.
neil: LOL
Yeah — and losing Jamie Collins, a former Pro Bowl linebacker, couldn’t have helped as the Lions were blowing that 23-6 lead.
sara.ziegler: Let’s move on to talk about that plucky little team from Massachusetts, the New England Patriots. They seem to finally have themselves a real quarterback!
neil: I’m so glad something good could finally happen for the Patriots!
Salfino: It’s been so long!
joshua.hermsmeyer: I wondered if the Pats would go run heavy with Cam Newton or try to stay balanced and pass a bit. Turns out it was the former: They ran more than twice as often as they passed, and they lead all Week 1 teams with 42 rushing plays. And I mean, it worked.
neil: Yeah, the running game was very impressive. First among all teams this week in rushing EPA.
sara.ziegler: This was the Running Patriots we were promised.
neil: You were right, Josh!
joshua.hermsmeyer: Neil, I was wrong thinking they wouldn’t use Cam near the end zone to protect him.
Salfino: The Patriots are going to go back to the early part of the century when the QB was mostly a game manager and occasional playmaker and they won with defense and old-school football. This works as long as Cam stays healthy, but I can’t imagine 160 carries at age 31 with his recent injury history.
neil: Yeah, that’s the part I worry about. The Dolphins had the worst pass D by EPA last season, and Newton was efficient when called upon, but mainly they ran and ran.
That’s good when you control the game script but maybe not against tougher opponents.
Salfino: The Patriots’ advantage is that no team has a good run defense against running quarterbacks. The Patriots backs did little even yesterday.
joshua.hermsmeyer: Also, did you see the play where a Patriot fumbled through the end zone? I could feel Bill’s rage.
N'Keal Harry fumbles just short of the goalline through the endzone. Turns it over. Harry ranked dead last in separation last season among all qualifying NFL WRs. https://t.co/oLuAuwxYAa — Dov Kleiman (@NFL_DovKleiman) September 13, 2020
sara.ziegler: That guy is OFF THE TEAM.
(Probably.)
Salfino: That was N’Keal Harry, who is just having a brutal start to his career. Imagine if Bill Belichick could draft in the first round.
neil: I think we’ve probably noted how weird and bad that rule is before.
joshua.hermsmeyer: Terrible rule.
sara.ziegler: It really is bad.
Salfino: The Patriots bench you for that 100 percent. Belichick is obsessed with not losing the ball there.
sara.ziegler: Back to Cam, I guess I’m expecting Belichick to do what he always does and scheme around the opposing defense’s weaknesses. So I don’t think we’ll see this exact look every time, right?
joshua.hermsmeyer: I think Miami is exactly the type of team you don’t open your playbook against. So in that regard, I agree, Sara. But I’m not sure they suddenly start passing heavily.
Salfino: Who are they throwing to?
joshua.hermsmeyer: James White?
sara.ziegler: Not N’Keal Harry anymore!
Salfino: Are the Niners in trouble? BRUTAL ending to that game for Jimmy Garoppolo.
neil: Jimmy G. is just going to fuel our doubts all year again, isn’t he?
joshua.hermsmeyer: If Seattle continues to Let Russ Cook, the Niners are in trouble.
Salfino: After the overthrow to fail to win the Super Bowl, Garoppolo underthrows a wide-open Kendrick Bourne in the end zone and then misfires on fourth-and-5 to Trent Taylor with 37 seconds left.
neil: I do wonder whether that game said more about the Cardinals than the Niners, though: 151 receiving yards for DeAndre Hopkins! Kyler Murray passing and running! They could be really interesting.
Salfino: Fantasy football was so down on Hopkins. I get that changing teams is bad, but he had a massive upgrade at offensive coordinator and not that much of a QB downgrade. He is the WR1, the 1A and the 1B in Arizona.
sara.ziegler: We’ve been thinking the Cards would be fun for a while now. Murray has the weapon this year in Hopkins.
Salfino: The Niners had A LOT of trouble with Murray. And now George Kittle is hurt again with a similar injury to the one he suffered last year against the Cardinals — it’s what ended up causing him to miss the next two games.
joshua.hermsmeyer: And Kyle Shanahan said he thought they did a good job containing Murray.
How dangerous is Kyler Murray?
He played like that and Kyle Shanahan said this: "I thought we did a pretty good job containing him.” https://t.co/DbWmxyOUhH #49ers #azcardinals pic.twitter.com/peWzEF257N — Eric Branch (@Eric_Branch) September 14, 2020
neil: Scary.
sara.ziegler: So it was a pretty eventful Week 1! We’ll double our sample size next week and have even more to discuss. But let’s end it here before we have to talk about the Vikings — keep this chat a safe space.
neil: Real convenient to avoid mentioning them, Sara. LOL
Salfino: Did the Vikings throw a pass in the first half?
joshua.hermsmeyer: 😭
Salfino: Mike Zimmer, man. Hates the forward pass. Wishes it were never invented.
And maybe hold off on those Aaron Rodgers obits.
Today was Aaron Rodgers' 5th career game with 350+ pass yards, 4+ pass TD, and 0 INT. That ties him for the 3rd-most such games by any player since 1950 … trailing only Drew Brees (11 entering today) and Tom Brady (10) — NFL Research (@NFLResearch) September 13, 2020
sara.ziegler: Talk to you next week, guys!
Check out our latest NFL predictions.


fivethirthyeight--2020-09-14--Everything Should Be On The Table For The Houston Rockets. Even James Harden’s Future.

It didn ’ t take long for the Wrecking Ball of Consequence to come swinging into the Houston Rockets ’ living room .
On Sunday , less than 24 hours after the club ’ s season-ending defeat to the Lakers , coach Mike D ’ Antoni announced he wouldn ’ t be coming back next season .
The move was widely expected , given the tone and tenor of the reports that had piled up dating back to last year , but it might be more noteworthy than a typical resignation .
The 2017 Coach of the Year was perhaps @ @ @ @ @ @ @ playing style than any other coach in the league .
All of which raises two key questions in Houston : What comes next for the Rockets ?
And is it worth it to consider dealing away superstar James Harden ?
The club had already put some massive changes in the works over the past year or so that would make a teardown or on-the-fly rebuild more challenging than it would otherwise be .
Maybe sensing the need to push all its chips in , Houston dealt Clint Capela and its 2020 first-round pick @ @ @ @ @ @ @ who allowed the Rockets to fully embrace a terrorizing small-ball lineup , with ample switchability and perimeter shooting .
But there ’ s a more significant element making it tough to just hit reset on everything : the guy who more or less can ’ t shoot from distance , who the Rockets went all in on last summer .
Yes , we ’ re talking about onetime MVP Russell Westbrook , for whom the Rockets surrendered two first-round picks , a pair of pick swaps and an apparently rejuvenated Chris Paul .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ next three years of the soon-to-be 32-year-old ’ s deal , which pays $ 41 million , $ 44 million and $ 47 million .
( Also trouble , albeit on a smaller scale : Swingman Eric Gordon , who ’ s 31 and coming off an injury-hobbled season , is set to make $ 17 million , $ 18 million , $ 20 million and $ 21 million over the next four years . )
Westbrook tested positive for COVID-19 just before the NBA restart , then injured his quad and missed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s first-round series .
So yes , there were circumstances that hindered his ability this postseason .
But let ’ s not pretend that there isn ’ t a much larger , more concerning trend at play here .
Westbrook ’ s playoff numbers have been troubling for a while — we wrote about them last year , too .
His lack of a reliable jumper from beyond midrange allows defenses to back away from him , daring him to shoot .
For a sub-30 percent shooter from three , he ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ guard ’ s playoff win-share production rate per 48 minutes was cut in half three years in a row and is now underwater : from .208 in 2016 , to .103 in 2017 , to .052 in 2018 , to .026 in 2019 to -0.04 now .
Westbrook did have shining moments during the regular season , just before the pandemic hit .
For almost two months , from a few weeks before the team dealt Capela to a few weeks after it had fully leaned into that short-ball style , Westbrook was @ @ @ @ @ @ @ per game on 53 percent shooting , taking full advantage of the abundance of space with which he had to operate .
During that stretch , there was an unmistakable reduction in the number of 3-point tries in his shot diet .
When he takes too many , he all but kills his game .
Truthfully , much of this outcome with Westbrook , or just the team in general , was predictable .
Just before the season , we wrote about how the addition of Westbrook , among other things , gave @ @ @ @ @ @ @ feeling .
Last fall , it appeared the time could be now if Westbrook could raise the team ’ s ceiling more than Paul could .
But if it flamed out spectacularly , in part because of Russ , the time may never come .
And it very much feels like we know the answer after Year One .
The pain of the trade for Westbrook is crystal clear : It kneecapped the Rockets ’ ability to piece together the draft-pick assets needed to get another star to put alongside Harden .
But @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Daryl Morey was trying to avoid getting stuck .
That may feel like a strange word to describe a perennial 50-game winner — one that ’ s been so good , and so close — with a generational scoring talent .
But with no meaningful hardware or real room for upward mobility , that characterization feels accurate , especially now , with Westbrook failing to move the needle .
You could reasonably argue the time has already come to have the discussion on Harden .
Like Westbrook , Harden is also 31 , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ his athleticism .
He ’ s led the NBA in scoring average three straight years while averaging almost 34 points a night over that span and has been remarkably durable in his eight years as a No .
1 option .
( Even his defense , which used to be criticized relentlessly , has improved considerably .
He leads the league in steals this year and has been one of the best guards at defending the post . )
Oklahoma City ’ s impressive season after dealing Westbrook could be seen as a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
His value likely won ’ t ever be higher than it is now .
He would almost certainly yield a boatload of talent and first-round picks to replenish the cupboard with , while resetting the deck during a time in which the Los Angeles clubs will likely be favored out West for at least the next couple seasons .
And highly leveraged team owner Tilman Fertitta may want to have less long-term money on the books given the uncertain nature of the pandemic .
The flipside , of course , is that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of offensive talent that any coach would want the chance to build a system around if given the opportunity .
When D ’ Antoni got his , he made Harden his primary ball-handler as opposed to playing him off the ball .
Harden immediately went on to lead the NBA in dimes while scoring just as efficiently as he had before .
Any coach can come in and offer to install an offense that ’ s more inventive and cuts back on the number of pick and rolls and isolations .
But what @ @ @ @ @ @ @ buy-in the plan gets from Harden , who ’ s had plenty of individual success with this style but has repeatedly fallen short with it come playoff time ( especially toward the end , when he appears to tire some ) .
And while the team ’ s defense has usually been overlooked because of the Rockets ’ rare offensive style , whoever coaches next will lead a group that ’ s capable of being elite on that end .
Much like the last time this club looked worthy of a title , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ enough to switch its assignments to guard ball screens .
While Houston finished as a merely average unit on D , the Rockets became far stingier and more aggressive after the trade to go smaller .
From the trade deadline to the end of the regular season , they ranked 10th overall ( up from No .
15 before ) and fifth ( up from 18th ) following a switch , according to data from Second Spectrum .
This poor second-round showing against the Lakers highlighted a pair of looming questions for Morey @ @ @ @ @ @ @ invest in a passable traditional big for matchups that put too much stress on someone like P.J .
Tucker ?
In that same vein , what , if anything , can the executive do to bolster the club ’ s depth so it ’ s not dead in the water if Danuel House gets in trouble , or Covington takes a blow to the head ?
For most teams , weathering those kinds of losses are a typical part of the season .
The Rockets aren ’ t typical , though .
For @ @ @ @ @ @ @ led by a different type of executive .
The team has been led by one of the most unusual stars , in an offense that produces a most unusual shot chart .
Soon , a new coach will step into that situation to try to win with it .
But a coaching change alone may not do it .
And that ’ s the frustrating reality for the Rockets right now : Even as they prepare to make a key move , there ’ s still that feeling of being stuck .

It didn’t take long for the Wrecking Ball of Consequence to come swinging into the Houston Rockets’ living room. On Sunday, less than 24 hours after the club’s season-ending defeat to the Lakers, coach Mike D’Antoni announced he wouldn’t be coming back next season.
The move was widely expected, given the tone and tenor of the reports that had piled up dating back to last year, but it might be more noteworthy than a typical resignation. The 2017 Coach of the Year was perhaps more intertwined with his team’s playing style than any other coach in the league.
All of which raises two key questions in Houston: What comes next for the Rockets? And is it worth it to consider dealing away superstar James Harden?
The club had already put some massive changes in the works over the past year or so that would make a teardown or on-the-fly rebuild more challenging than it would otherwise be. Maybe sensing the need to push all its chips in, Houston dealt Clint Capela and its 2020 first-round pick to acquire stud wing Robert Covington, who allowed the Rockets to fully embrace a terrorizing small-ball lineup, with ample switchability and perimeter shooting.
But there’s a more significant element making it tough to just hit reset on everything: the guy who more or less can’t shoot from distance, who the Rockets went all in on last summer.
Yes, we’re talking about onetime MVP Russell Westbrook, for whom the Rockets surrendered two first-round picks, a pair of pick swaps and an apparently rejuvenated Chris Paul. Houston also gets to take on the next three years of the soon-to-be 32-year-old’s deal, which pays $41 million, $44 million and $47 million. (Also trouble, albeit on a smaller scale: Swingman Eric Gordon, who’s 31 and coming off an injury-hobbled season, is set to make $17 million, $18 million, $20 million and $21 million over the next four years.)
Westbrook tested positive for COVID-19 just before the NBA restart, then injured his quad and missed the first chunk of his club’s first-round series. So yes, there were circumstances that hindered his ability this postseason. But let’s not pretend that there isn’t a much larger, more concerning trend at play here.
Westbrook’s playoff numbers have been troubling for a while — we wrote about them last year, too. His lack of a reliable jumper from beyond midrange allows defenses to back away from him, daring him to shoot. For a sub-30 percent shooter from three, he’s taken the bait too often. The guard’s playoff win-share production rate per 48 minutes was cut in half three years in a row and is now underwater: from .208 in 2016, to .103 in 2017, to .052 in 2018, to .026 in 2019 to -0.04 now.
Westbrook did have shining moments during the regular season, just before the pandemic hit. For almost two months, from a few weeks before the team dealt Capela to a few weeks after it had fully leaned into that short-ball style, Westbrook was fantastic. He averaged almost 33 points per game on 53 percent shooting, taking full advantage of the abundance of space with which he had to operate. During that stretch, there was an unmistakable reduction in the number of 3-point tries in his shot diet. When he takes too many, he all but kills his game.
Truthfully, much of this outcome with Westbrook, or just the team in general, was predictable. Just before the season, we wrote about how the addition of Westbrook, among other things, gave this club a bit of a now-or-never feeling. Last fall, it appeared the time could be now if Westbrook could raise the team’s ceiling more than Paul could. But if it flamed out spectacularly, in part because of Russ, the time may never come. And it very much feels like we know the answer after Year One.
The pain of the trade for Westbrook is crystal clear: It kneecapped the Rockets’ ability to piece together the draft-pick assets needed to get another star to put alongside Harden. But the aim was understandable: General manager Daryl Morey was trying to avoid getting stuck. That may feel like a strange word to describe a perennial 50-game winner — one that’s been so good, and so close — with a generational scoring talent. But with no meaningful hardware or real room for upward mobility, that characterization feels accurate, especially now, with Westbrook failing to move the needle.
You could reasonably argue the time has already come to have the discussion on Harden. Like Westbrook, Harden is also 31, though his game relies far less on his athleticism. He’s led the NBA in scoring average three straight years while averaging almost 34 points a night over that span and has been remarkably durable in his eight years as a No. 1 option. (Even his defense, which used to be criticized relentlessly, has improved considerably. He leads the league in steals this year and has been one of the best guards at defending the post.)
Oklahoma City’s impressive season after dealing Westbrook could be seen as a blueprint for the Rockets’ dealing Harden. His value likely won’t ever be higher than it is now. He would almost certainly yield a boatload of talent and first-round picks to replenish the cupboard with, while resetting the deck during a time in which the Los Angeles clubs will likely be favored out West for at least the next couple seasons. And highly leveraged team owner Tilman Fertitta may want to have less long-term money on the books given the uncertain nature of the pandemic.
The flipside, of course, is that this is James Harden — the sort of offensive talent that any coach would want the chance to build a system around if given the opportunity. When D’Antoni got his, he made Harden his primary ball-handler as opposed to playing him off the ball. Harden immediately went on to lead the NBA in dimes while scoring just as efficiently as he had before.
Any coach can come in and offer to install an offense that’s more inventive and cuts back on the number of pick and rolls and isolations. But what will be worth watching is how much buy-in the plan gets from Harden, who’s had plenty of individual success with this style but has repeatedly fallen short with it come playoff time (especially toward the end, when he appears to tire some).
And while the team’s defense has usually been overlooked because of the Rockets’ rare offensive style, whoever coaches next will lead a group that’s capable of being elite on that end.
Much like the last time this club looked worthy of a title, in 2018, this defense is versatile enough to switch its assignments to guard ball screens. While Houston finished as a merely average unit on D, the Rockets became far stingier and more aggressive after the trade to go smaller. From the trade deadline to the end of the regular season, they ranked 10th overall (up from No. 15 before) and fifth (up from 18th) following a switch, according to data from Second Spectrum.
This poor second-round showing against the Lakers highlighted a pair of looming questions for Morey. Does he need to at least invest in a passable traditional big for matchups that put too much stress on someone like P.J. Tucker? In that same vein, what, if anything, can the executive do to bolster the club’s depth so it’s not dead in the water if Danuel House gets in trouble, or Covington takes a blow to the head? For most teams, weathering those kinds of losses are a typical part of the season.
The Rockets aren’t typical, though. For years, their front office has been led by a different type of executive. The team has been led by one of the most unusual stars, in an offense that produces a most unusual shot chart. Soon, a new coach will step into that situation to try to win with it.
But a coaching change alone may not do it. And that’s the frustrating reality for the Rockets right now: Even as they prepare to make a key move, there’s still that feeling of being stuck.
Check out our latest NBA predictions.


fivethirthyeight--2020-09-15--Why Pennsylvania Could Decide The 2020 Election

This is the fourth in a series of articles examining the politics and demographics of 2020 ’ s expected swing states .
Right now , Pennsylvania looks like the single most important state of the 2020 election .
According to FiveThirtyEight ’ s presidential forecast , Pennsylvania is by far the likeliest state to provide either President Trump or Joe Biden with the decisive vote in the Electoral College : It has a 31 percent chance of being the tipping-point state .
( That ’ s what happens when you take one of the most evenly divided states in the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ . )
In fact , Pennsylvania is so important that our model gives Trump an 84 percent chance of winning the presidency if he carries the state — and it gives Biden a 96 percent chance of winning if Pennsylvania goes blue .
Few could have guessed that the Keystone State would eventually become the “ keystone ” of the Electoral College , since going into 2016 , Pennsylvania had voted for the Democrat in six straight presidential elections .
More impressively , Pennsylvania had been more Democratic-leaning than the national popular vote @ @ @ @ @ @ @ But both streaks were snapped in 2016 , when Trump carried Pennsylvania by 0.7 percentage points — making it 2.9 points redder than the nation as a whole .
Pennsylvania ’ s eventual defection shouldn ’ t have surprised us , though .
Non-Hispanic white people without bachelor ’ s degrees make up 55 percent of Pennsylvania ’ s population age 25 or older , and Trump accelerated their migration to the Republican Party in 2016 .
According to the Center for American Progress , the turnout rate among these voters increased from @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in 2016 — and they went from voting for Mitt Romney by 20.3 points to voting for Trump by 28.6 points .
Pennsylvania ’ s run to the right , however , has been a long time in the making .
For much of the 20th century , blue-collar , white Pennsylvanians were considered part of the Democratic base .
But the share of workers in Pennsylvania belonging to labor unions ( which have historically played a huge role advocating and organizing for Democratic candidates ) has fallen from 27.5 percent in 1983 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ many have blamed trade and environmental policies pushed by Democrats for the decline of the state ’ s manufacturing and mining industries .
Campaigns have also been forced to reconsider their conception of Pennsylvania ’ s political geography .
The conventional wisdom was that western and eastern Pennsylvania were Democratic and central Pennsylvania was solidly Republican ( memorably summarized by Democratic strategist James Carville ’ s quote that , between Pittsburgh and Philadelphia , Pennsylvania was just Alabama ) .
While this may have been true ( at least politically ) in , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ northeastern Pennsylvania have slowly but surely been getting redder .
As a result , Pennsylvania ’ s new geographic divide is between southeastern Pennsylvania and the rest of the state — in other words , the parts of the state that are culturally Northeastern and the parts that are culturally Midwestern or Appalachian .
Granted , even this is an oversimplified description of Pennsylvania ’ s political divide .
Pittsburgh ’ s Allegheny County is one of the few counties in the state that is getting bluer ( the Midwest has upper-class suburbs @ @ @ @ @ @ @ actually voted more Republican in 2016 , despite having the state ’ s smallest non-college-educated white population ( by percentage ) .
This hints at another problem Democrats would like to solve : returning to their former strength among Black voters .
( Philadelphia County is 44 percent Black . )
According to CAP , Clinton won “ only ” 89.8 percent of the Black vote in Pennsylvania .
That ’ s obviously very high , but it ’ s short of the 96.0 percent that Barack Obama received four years earlier — @ @ @ @ @ @ @ had matched Obama ’ s share of the Black vote , CAP found , she would have narrowly carried Pennsylvania in 2016 — even with her poor performance among white voters without a bachelor ’ s degree .
Apart from winning back non-college-educated white voters or Black voters , some Democrats may see a third way forward in Pennsylvania : running up their margin in the suburbs .
The other trend evident from the map above is that Democrats are gaining ground in the affluent , well-educated counties around Philadelphia .
Philly ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Bucks , Chester , Delaware and Montgomery — went from voting for Obama by 10 points in 2012 to voting for Clinton by 14 points .
But the problem for Democrats is that those four counties contain only 22 percent of Pennsylvania ’ s 2016 voters , and they are moving to the left far more slowly than the rest of the state is moving to the right .
For example , the 24 counties in western Pennsylvania other than Allegheny contain a similar 19 percent of Pennsylvania voters , yet they went @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to voting for Trump by 32 points .
Of course , Democrats don ’ t have to choose just one group of voters to appeal to .
Biden has been making overtures to suburban voters , Black voters and non-college-educated white voters — and there are signs he ’ s succeeding on multiple fronts .
The last two polls ( one Democratic , one Republican ) to ask about the presidential race in Pennsylvania ’ s 1st Congressional District — which is almost coterminous with Bucks County — both gave Biden a 9-point @ @ @ @ @ @ @ by only 2 points .
And a February poll by Mercyhurst University showed Biden at 48 percent and Trump at 44 percent in post-industrial Erie County , which Trump won by 2 points in 2016 — although Biden ’ s lead was still a far cry from the 16 points by which Obama carried Erie in 2012 .
And , in a stroke of luck for Biden , he may be uniquely positioned to reverse some of Democrats ’ most severe 2016 losses : the 24 points shaved off the Democratic margin in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are the heart of the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre metropolitan area , where Biden was born , grew up and speaks of often on the campaign trail .
All told , Biden currently leads the FiveThirtyEight polling average in Pennsylvania by 4.9 points .
Adjusting for demographics and the possibility of change over the next two months , our forecast projects that the Democrat will ultimately carry the Keystone State by 4.6 points .
However , both numbers are closer than Biden ’ s lead nationally , implying that if the overall race tightens , Biden @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that made Pennsylvania so inhospitable for Clinton in 2016 .
In other words , it ’ s no coincidence that Biden ’ s 75 in 100 chance of winning Pennsylvania is nearly identical to his chance of winning the election : As goes Pennsylvania , so goes the Electoral College .

This is the fourth in a series of articles examining the politics and demographics of 2020’s expected swing states.
Right now, Pennsylvania looks like the single most important state of the 2020 election. According to FiveThirtyEight’s presidential forecast, Pennsylvania is by far the likeliest state to provide either President Trump or Joe Biden with the decisive vote in the Electoral College: It has a 31 percent chance of being the tipping-point state. (That’s what happens when you take one of the most evenly divided states in the union and give it 20 electoral votes.) In fact, Pennsylvania is so important that our model gives Trump an 84 percent chance of winning the presidency if he carries the state — and it gives Biden a 96 percent chance of winning if Pennsylvania goes blue.
Few could have guessed that the Keystone State would eventually become the “keystone” of the Electoral College, since going into 2016, Pennsylvania had voted for the Democrat in six straight presidential elections. More impressively, Pennsylvania had been more Democratic-leaning than the national popular vote in every presidential election since 1952. But both streaks were snapped in 2016, when Trump carried Pennsylvania by 0.7 percentage points — making it 2.9 points redder than the nation as a whole.
Is Pennsylvania now a Republican-leaning state? How Pennsylvania has voted relative to the nation as a whole in presidential elections since 1952 Pennsylvania Year Dem. GOP Margin Nat’l Margin Penn. Lean 1952 46.9% 52.7% R+5.9 R+10.5 D+4.6 1956 43.3 56.5 R+13.2 R+15.9 D+2.7 1960 51.1 48.7 D+2.3 D+0.2 D+2.1 1964 64.9 34.7 D+30.2 D+22.4 D+7.9 1968 47.6 44.0 D+3.6 R+1.1 D+4.7 1972 39.1 59.1 R+20.0 R+23.0 D+3.0 1976 50.4 47.7 D+2.7 D+2.1 D+0.6 1980 42.5 49.6 R+7.1 R+9.4 D+2.3 1984 46.0 53.3 R+7.4 R+18.0 D+10.7 1988 48.4 50.7 R+2.3 R+7.6 D+5.2 1992 45.1 36.1 D+9.0 D+5.8 D+3.2 1996 49.2 40.0 D+9.2 D+8.5 D+0.7 2000 50.6 46.4 D+4.2 D+0.5 D+3.7 2004 51.0 48.5 D+2.5 R+2.4 D+4.9 2008 54.7 44.3 D+10.3 D+7.3 D+3.1 2012 52.1 46.7 D+5.4 D+3.9 D+1.5 2016 47.9 48.6 R+0.7 D+2.2 R+2.9 Sources: Dave Leip’s Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections, Pennsylvania Department of State, U.S. House of Representatives
Pennsylvania’s eventual defection shouldn’t have surprised us, though. Non-Hispanic white people without bachelor’s degrees make up 55 percent of Pennsylvania’s population age 25 or older, and Trump accelerated their migration to the Republican Party in 2016. According to the Center for American Progress, the turnout rate among these voters increased from 53.0 percent in 2012 to 57.4 percent in 2016 — and they went from voting for Mitt Romney by 20.3 points to voting for Trump by 28.6 points.
Pennsylvania’s run to the right, however, has been a long time in the making. For much of the 20th century, blue-collar, white Pennsylvanians were considered part of the Democratic base. But the share of workers in Pennsylvania belonging to labor unions (which have historically played a huge role advocating and organizing for Democratic candidates) has fallen from 27.5 percent in 1983 to 12.0 percent in 2019, and many have blamed trade and environmental policies pushed by Democrats for the decline of the state’s manufacturing and mining industries.
Campaigns have also been forced to reconsider their conception of Pennsylvania’s political geography. The conventional wisdom was that western and eastern Pennsylvania were Democratic and central Pennsylvania was solidly Republican (memorably summarized by Democratic strategist James Carville’s quote that, between Pittsburgh and Philadelphia, Pennsylvania was just Alabama). While this may have been true (at least politically) in, say, 2000, working-class western and northeastern Pennsylvania have slowly but surely been getting redder. As a result, Pennsylvania’s new geographic divide is between southeastern Pennsylvania and the rest of the state — in other words, the parts of the state that are culturally Northeastern and the parts that are culturally Midwestern or Appalachian.
Granted, even this is an oversimplified description of Pennsylvania’s political divide. Pittsburgh’s Allegheny County is one of the few counties in the state that is getting bluer (the Midwest has upper-class suburbs too!). And Philadelphia County actually voted more Republican in 2016, despite having the state’s smallest non-college-educated white population (by percentage). This hints at another problem Democrats would like to solve: returning to their former strength among Black voters. (Philadelphia County is 44 percent Black.) According to CAP, Clinton won “only” 89.8 percent of the Black vote in Pennsylvania. That’s obviously very high, but it’s short of the 96.0 percent that Barack Obama received four years earlier — and those margins matter. If Clinton had matched Obama’s share of the Black vote, CAP found, she would have narrowly carried Pennsylvania in 2016 — even with her poor performance among white voters without a bachelor’s degree.
Apart from winning back non-college-educated white voters or Black voters, some Democrats may see a third way forward in Pennsylvania: running up their margin in the suburbs. The other trend evident from the map above is that Democrats are gaining ground in the affluent, well-educated counties around Philadelphia. Philly’s four “collar counties” — Bucks, Chester, Delaware and Montgomery — went from voting for Obama by 10 points in 2012 to voting for Clinton by 14 points. But the problem for Democrats is that those four counties contain only 22 percent of Pennsylvania’s 2016 voters, and they are moving to the left far more slowly than the rest of the state is moving to the right. For example, the 24 counties in western Pennsylvania other than Allegheny contain a similar 19 percent of Pennsylvania voters, yet they went from voting for Romney by 18 points to voting for Trump by 32 points.
Of course, Democrats don’t have to choose just one group of voters to appeal to. Biden has been making overtures to suburban voters, Black voters and non-college-educated white voters — and there are signs he’s succeeding on multiple fronts. The last two polls (one Democratic, one Republican) to ask about the presidential race in Pennsylvania’s 1st Congressional District — which is almost coterminous with Bucks County — both gave Biden a 9-point lead in a suburban district Clinton carried by only 2 points. And a February poll by Mercyhurst University showed Biden at 48 percent and Trump at 44 percent in post-industrial Erie County, which Trump won by 2 points in 2016 — although Biden’s lead was still a far cry from the 16 points by which Obama carried Erie in 2012. And, in a stroke of luck for Biden, he may be uniquely positioned to reverse some of Democrats’ most severe 2016 losses: the 24 points shaved off the Democratic margin in Lackawanna and Luzerne counties. These counties are the heart of the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre metropolitan area, where Biden was born, grew up and speaks of often on the campaign trail.
All told, Biden currently leads the FiveThirtyEight polling average in Pennsylvania by 4.9 points. Adjusting for demographics and the possibility of change over the next two months, our forecast projects that the Democrat will ultimately carry the Keystone State by 4.6 points. However, both numbers are closer than Biden’s lead nationally, implying that if the overall race tightens, Biden could fall victim to the same trends that made Pennsylvania so inhospitable for Clinton in 2016. In other words, it’s no coincidence that Biden’s 75 in 100 chance of winning Pennsylvania is nearly identical to his chance of winning the election: As goes Pennsylvania, so goes the Electoral College.
FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast: How Ohio is preparing for a pandemic election


fivethirthyeight--2020-09-17--What’s The Chance That Trump Loses The Popular Vote But Wins The Election Again?

Elections analyst Nathaniel Rakich takes a look at our presidential forecast and asks what weird ( and not-so-weird ) scenarios @ @ @ @ @ 2020 election .

What’s The Chance That Trump Loses The Popular Vote But Wins The Election Again?
Elections analyst Nathaniel Rakich takes a look at our presidential forecast and asks what weird (and not-so-weird) scenarios could shake out in the 2020 election.


fivethirthyeight--2020-09-17--Bam Adebayo Is Making Plays, Denver Is Making Us Look Bad, And The Lakers May Need To Make Some Adju

chris.herring ( Chris Herring , senior sportswriter ) : So , the last time we talked , we thought maybe we ’ d reached peak craziness in the NBA playoffs already .
The Raptors and Celtics had played an overtime game that was fantastic , and it looked as if we were certainly barreling toward a Lakers/Clippers collision course .
And well … the Clippers collided with the Nuggets , instead .
tchow ( Tony Chow , video producer ) : How young and innocent we all were back then .
chris.herring : Now we ’ ve got a pair @ @ @ @ @ @ @ be interesting .
The Heat and Celtics kept the overtime trend alive , with Miami winning Game 1 in dramatic fashion .
What are the odds that the Heat take out the Celtics in this series ?
It seems like a good matchup for them tchow : Our forecast has them as basically a toss-up , with the Celtics getting a slight edge ( 55 percent to Miami ’ s 45 percent ) .
chris.herring : It kinda feels like they should be favored , between the lead and the fact that they @ @ @ @ @ @ @ tchow : That 45 percent seems low to me .
Miami leads in the series , and RAPTOR doesn ’ t account for how much of an impact that Adebayo block will have on Jayson Tatum ’ s future performances .
dubin : I thought the Celtics would have much more success hunting individual matchups than they did in Game 1 .
They got Duncan Robinson in foul trouble very quickly , but Tyler Herro held his own , and for some reason they kept going at Bam Adebayo in pick and rolls @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in isolation .
dre.waters : Herro was actually one assist short of being the youngest player in NBA history to record a triple-double in the conference finals .
chris.herring : I felt like Boston wouldn ’ t struggle nearly as much as Milwaukee did to create offense against the Heat defense .
But Kemba Walker continues to get a ton of defensive pressure .
And as Jared pointed out … challenging Adebayo is certainly an odd choice Makes you think that will be an adjustment going forward in the series .
One thing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Bam ’ s playmaking .
The ball was in hands seemingly more than normal , so I went back and looked at the numbers .
He finished with nine assists , which was impressive enough .
But he came away 13 potential assist opportunities — more than double the number he averaged against the Celtics in the regular season .
Almost looked Jokić-like in terms of hunting backcuts and then punishing the Celtics with a pass to the perimeter when they overplayed the cuts backdoor .
dubin : Bam was probably the second-best @ @ @ @ @ @ @ year — especially on short rolls out of the pick and roll .
dre.waters : Bam ’ s playmaking is pretty underrated .
He ’ s actually been their leader in assists this postseason .
chris.herring : And none of that even gets to him making the play of the game , which Tony mentioned earlier .
One of the better , more impactful playoff blocks we ’ ve seen in recent memory .
dubin : One thing about the Heat is that so many different guys can carry them at different times @ @ @ @ @ @ @ it early , Jae Crowder just kept making threes , and then Jimmy Butler ’ s scoring and Bam ’ s block won it late .
Side note : How much do the Celtics regret turning Crowder into a shooter ?
He wouldn ’ t even be on the Heat right now if that had never happened a few years back .
dre.waters : That ’ s got ta be eating them up .
Everytime the Heat have needed big three this postseason , he seems to hit one for them dubin : @ @ @ @ @ @ @ most fascinating player left in the playoffs , by the way ?
He ’ s so strange .
Some games , he completely dominates from start-to-finish .
Others he disappears for long stretches , only to pop up at the most opportune times ( like Game 1 ) .
He does so many things well and makes his impact in such profound ways .
chris.herring : He might be the most unusual star in the league , man .
Can drop 40 one night but then hand the reins to someone else the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ stud defender .
But always seems to be there for the big moments .
The Heat are a scary team .
Still just one loss this postseason !
And they almost won that one , too .
dubin : He has such a strange shot distribution for a star , too .
Plus , he parades himself to the line like 400 times a night .
chris.herring : Which helps make up for the subpar jumper .
tchow : I don ’ t think there was ever a question that Butler was a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ enigmatic one .
That partly explains all the team changes he ’ s had over the years .
He ’ s a tough one to pinpoint , but these games in the bubble so far have shown how fun he can be to watch .
chris.herring : I wonder if him moving from team to team … to team makes people question how good he is , or if he ’ s worth it .
You normally don ’ t see clubs move on from a guy who ’ s a superstar .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ is one .
But it really does feel like he impacts the game as much as the guys we call superstars .
And it ’ s clear he considers himself on their level , if not better .
Speaking of people on Jimmy ’ s level : Kawhi Leonard and Paul George .
… All of a sudden , they aren ’ t in the playoffs anymore .
The Nuggets disposed of them after mounting another 3-1 comeback , pulling away in blowout fashion to win Game 7 .
We could start in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ surprised were y ’ all by the Nuggets ’ comeback , and how much of this was Denver ’ s doing versus the Clippers collapsing ?
dubin : I want to say it ’ s about equal , but when you see Kawhi and PG go 10-38 for 24 points in Game 7 , that makes it tough .
chris.herring : No points in the fourth quarter from either guy !
Kawhi and PG were scoreless !
With one free throw attempt the entire game !
tchow : In our last chat , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ NBA said , “ The Nuggets have had a really impressive playoff run , but I can ’ t see them pulling this off.
” Boy , was that guy wrong .
dre.waters : Even though we had just watched the Nuggets come back from the same deficit the round before , it was still really surprising to see just how much the Clippers fell apart in the second half of that game .
Outscored 50-33 in the second half … ooof .
dubin : Denver ’ s defense has gotten a lot @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the seeding games , 131.1 through Game 4 of the Jazz series , 107.1 since ) , and Jamal Murray really just can ’ t miss anything .
I want to give the Nuggets almost all of the credit .
But man , it really feels like L.A. ’ s offense self-destructed .
And the fact that it was their offense that was so bad made it even more surprising , I think .
There were some cracks in the defense throughout the year , but you ’ d think they could generate @ @ @ @ @ @ @ kind of hopeless until like two weeks ago .
chris.herring : I want to be really clear : The Nuggets were excellent .
Paul Millsap had a turning point .
Michael Porter Jr. redeemed himself .
Gary Harris was a factor .
The contributions of Murray and Nikola Jokić go without saying , and when one got going , it opened up things for the other , because of how the Clippers went about trapping and doubling .
So I ’ ll be the first to credit the Nuggets while also saying that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
tchow : I think the surprise is kinda our own faults , too .
( “ Our ” meaning just NBA media . )
It feels like all season , you ’ ve heard over and over that the Clippers had a championship-caliber roster , and the franchise itself was not shy about confirming that .
I mean , making those moves in the offseason , they clearly had a title-or-bust idea going into this season .
But you just heard it over and over again , so when they collapse like @ @ @ @ @ @ @ part because we built them up in our heads .
Or at least I did .
dubin : By the way , Murray just had a fantastic series while being guarded almost exclusively by Kawhi , PG and Pat Beverley .
Think he ’ s gon na have an easier time against Danny Green , Kentavious Caldwell-Pope , Alex Caruso and Rajon Rondo ?
Three of those four guys are consistently good defenders , and one ( Rondo ) has been good in the postseason .
But man , they ’ re not @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Clippers threw at Murray .
chris.herring : I think that question is one that might define the series , Jared .
That along with what happens between Jokić and Anthony Davis .
I really hope Lakers coach Frank Vogel doesn ’ t wait as long as Doc Rivers did to make adjustments , though .
tchow : Yeah , I ’ m going to be really interested to see how the Nuggets end up matching up against the Lakers , defensively more so than offensively .
dubin : There ’ s a 112 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to the big lineup to start the series , right ?
I feel pretty confident in that happening .
tchow : I think the big lineup would be the obvious choice for the Lakers .
Exploit one of your clear advantages .
chris.herring : … And that seems like a clear mistake to me .
Saw this note from Anthony Slater over at The Athletic : The Lakers this year , against the Nuggets : • With Anthony Davis and JaVale McGee , 52 minutes total , and the Lakers were outscored by @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Dwight Howard : 42 minutes , and the teams were even .
• With Anthony Davis and neither big alongside him : 56 minutes , and the Lakers outscored Denver by 34. tchow : OK , never mind then .
Frank , if you ’ re reading this , rethink your starting five for Game 1 tomorrow .
dre.waters : Pretty sure he does , LOL .
dubin : If AD didn ’ t state publicly at almost every opportunity that he wants to be a power forward , I don ’ t @ @ @ @ @ @ @ playoff minutes .
But alas , AD does state that at basically every opportunity .
It was one of the first things he said upon being traded to the Lakers .
chris.herring : Won ’ t the Lakers HATE Anthony Davis if he doesn ’ t play center in this series for long stretches , and they lose because of it ?
!
tchow : Yeah , this is probably a case of the needs of the team being more important than the wants of a player — but this is also the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ if you ’ re literally playing for a shot at the championship , I would think Davis would be willing to make the sacrifice , if necessary .
dubin : Right ?
Bang with Jokić for four to seven games , and then you get Daniel Theis or Bam in the Finals , in what should presumably be less physically taxing ( in the way Davis likes to avoid ) matchups .
chris.herring : I took the Lakers in this series , but I ’ m also fully prepared for the Nuggets to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ more time , for good measure .
As Jared said before , Murray isn ’ t going to see better defenders than he did last round , which has to be encouraging for the Nuggets .
And the Nuggets do have a handful of bodies they can throw at LeBron James , though LeBron should be able to produce still .
tchow : Well , if Murray can play the way he played against two NBA All-Defensive second team players ( Kawhi and Bev ) , maybe he ’ ll have another great @ @ @ @ @ @ @ team player in Davis , especially since Davis will probably guard Murray a total of zero minutes .
dubin : LeBron might be holding himself a little celebration at the fact that he gets to play Paul Millsap in the playoffs again .
chris.herring : Beats having to go through Kawhi for an entire series , you ’ d think .
dubin : Jerami Grant did a better job on Kawhi than I thought he would , but LeBron is even another level of physicality .
That ’ s gon na be real @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Lakers end up facing a slate of defenses that are ranked no better than 15th on their way to the Finals , if they get there .
dubin : Pretty nice road for a team that struggled in half-court offense for most of the year .
tchow : And then they would a defense ranked in the playoff top five on the other side of the conference in the Finals .
Rude awakening ?
chris.herring : If the Nuggets end up winning the series , what will have been the difference , do @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Murray , what do the Nuggets have that puts them over the top ?
tchow : They have point guard/center Nikola Jokić who puts them over the top .
dre.waters : I think Harris , Porter Jr. or Jerami Grant will have to be the difference .
Denver is going to need someone else to step up offensively .
dubin : I would say the most likely factors would be Murray , cold shooting from the Green-KCP-Kuzma-Morris crew , and the Nuggets getting good games from Harris and two of Millsap-Grant-Porter every night @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 1 on my “ Family Feud ” board would be cold Lakers shooting from the outside .
You have to be able to make the Nuggets pay for playing Porter Jr. long minutes .
Gary Harris probably has to be a factor on both ends ; not just defense .
dubin : It remains completely insane that the Clippers didn ’ t hunt Porter on defense like the Jazz did .
tchow : We should actually do a “ Family Feud ” board of things most likely to happen for the remainder of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ X ’ s first .
That ’ s kinda how “ Family Feud ” works right ?

Bam Adebayo Is Making Plays, Denver Is Making Us Look Bad, And The Lakers May Need To Make Some Adjustments
chris.herring (Chris Herring, senior sportswriter): So, the last time we talked, we thought maybe we’d reached peak craziness in the NBA playoffs already. The Raptors and Celtics had played an overtime game that was fantastic, and it looked as if we were certainly barreling toward a Lakers/Clippers collision course.
And well … the Clippers collided with the Nuggets, instead.
tchow (Tony Chow, video producer): How young and innocent we all were back then.
dre.waters (Andres Waters, FiveThirtyEight contributor): LOL
chris.herring: Now we’ve got a pair of conference finals series that figure to be interesting. The Heat and Celtics kept the overtime trend alive, with Miami winning Game 1 in dramatic fashion. What are the odds that the Heat take out the Celtics in this series? It seems like a good matchup for them
dubin (Jared Dubin, FiveThirtyEight contributor): Forty-five percent, according to RAPTOR!
tchow: Our forecast has them as basically a toss-up, with the Celtics getting a slight edge (55 percent to Miami’s 45 percent).
chris.herring: It kinda feels like they should be favored, between the lead and the fact that they match up as well as they do
tchow: That 45 percent seems low to me. Miami leads in the series, and RAPTOR doesn’t account for how much of an impact that Adebayo block will have on Jayson Tatum’s future performances.
dubin: I thought the Celtics would have much more success hunting individual matchups than they did in Game 1. They got Duncan Robinson in foul trouble very quickly, but Tyler Herro held his own, and for some reason they kept going at Bam Adebayo in pick and rolls rather than trying to attack Goran Dragić in isolation.
dre.waters: Herro was actually one assist short of being the youngest player in NBA history to record a triple-double in the conference finals.
chris.herring: I felt like Boston wouldn’t struggle nearly as much as Milwaukee did to create offense against the Heat defense. But Kemba Walker continues to get a ton of defensive pressure. And as Jared pointed out … challenging Adebayo is certainly an odd choice
Makes you think that will be an adjustment going forward in the series.
One thing that really stood out to me was Bam’s playmaking. The ball was in hands seemingly more than normal, so I went back and looked at the numbers. He finished with nine assists, which was impressive enough. But he came away 13 potential assist opportunities — more than double the number he averaged against the Celtics in the regular season.
Almost looked Jokić-like in terms of hunting backcuts and then punishing the Celtics with a pass to the perimeter when they overplayed the cuts backdoor.
dubin: Bam was probably the second-best passing big man in the league this year — especially on short rolls out of the pick and roll.
dre.waters: Bam’s playmaking is pretty underrated. He’s actually been their leader in assists this postseason.
chris.herring: And none of that even gets to him making the play of the game, which Tony mentioned earlier.
One of the better, more impactful playoff blocks we’ve seen in recent memory.
dubin: One thing about the Heat is that so many different guys can carry them at different times. Dragić and Herro kept them in it early, Jae Crowder just kept making threes, and then Jimmy Butler’s scoring and Bam’s block won it late.
Side note: How much do the Celtics regret turning Crowder into a shooter? He wouldn’t even be on the Heat right now if that had never happened a few years back.
dre.waters: That’s gotta be eating them up. Everytime the Heat have needed big three this postseason, he seems to hit one for them
dubin: Does anyone else think Butler is the most fascinating player left in the playoffs, by the way? He’s so strange. Some games, he completely dominates from start-to-finish. Others he disappears for long stretches, only to pop up at the most opportune times (like Game 1). He does so many things well and makes his impact in such profound ways.
chris.herring: He might be the most unusual star in the league, man. Can drop 40 one night but then hand the reins to someone else the next. Really good passer. A stud defender. But always seems to be there for the big moments.
The Heat are a scary team. Still just one loss this postseason! And they almost won that one, too.
dubin: He has such a strange shot distribution for a star, too. Plus, he parades himself to the line like 400 times a night.
chris.herring: Which helps make up for the subpar jumper.
tchow: I don’t think there was ever a question that Butler was a star in this league, albeit an enigmatic one. That partly explains all the team changes he’s had over the years. He’s a tough one to pinpoint, but these games in the bubble so far have shown how fun he can be to watch.
chris.herring: I wonder if him moving from team to team … to team makes people question how good he is, or if he’s worth it. You normally don’t see clubs move on from a guy who’s a superstar. I don’t know that Jimmy is one. But it really does feel like he impacts the game as much as the guys we call superstars. And it’s clear he considers himself on their level, if not better.
Speaking of people on Jimmy’s level: Kawhi Leonard and Paul George. … All of a sudden, they aren’t in the playoffs anymore. The Nuggets disposed of them after mounting another 3-1 comeback, pulling away in blowout fashion to win Game 7.
We could start in any number of places. But how surprised were y’all by the Nuggets’ comeback, and how much of this was Denver’s doing versus the Clippers collapsing?
dubin: I want to say it’s about equal, but when you see Kawhi and PG go 10-38 for 24 points in Game 7, that makes it tough.
chris.herring: No points in the fourth quarter from either guy! Kawhi and PG were scoreless! With one free throw attempt the entire game!
tchow: In our last chat, someone who clearly knows nothing about the NBA said, “The Nuggets have had a really impressive playoff run, but I can’t see them pulling this off.” Boy, was that guy wrong.
dre.waters: Even though we had just watched the Nuggets come back from the same deficit the round before, it was still really surprising to see just how much the Clippers fell apart in the second half of that game.
Outscored 50-33 in the second half … ooof.
dubin: Denver’s defense has gotten a lot stingier (121.7 points per 100 in the seeding games, 131.1 through Game 4 of the Jazz series, 107.1 since), and Jamal Murray really just can’t miss anything. I want to give the Nuggets almost all of the credit. But man, it really feels like L.A.’s offense self-destructed.
And the fact that it was their offense that was so bad made it even more surprising, I think. There were some cracks in the defense throughout the year, but you’d think they could generate some points against a defense that was kind of hopeless until like two weeks ago.
chris.herring: I want to be really clear: The Nuggets were excellent. Paul Millsap had a turning point. Michael Porter Jr. redeemed himself. Gary Harris was a factor. The contributions of Murray and Nikola Jokić go without saying, and when one got going, it opened up things for the other, because of how the Clippers went about trapping and doubling.
So I’ll be the first to credit the Nuggets while also saying that this was terribly disappointing from the Clippers.
tchow: I think the surprise is kinda our own faults, too. (“Our” meaning just NBA media.) It feels like all season, you’ve heard over and over that the Clippers had a championship-caliber roster, and the franchise itself was not shy about confirming that. I mean, making those moves in the offseason, they clearly had a title-or-bust idea going into this season. But you just heard it over and over again, so when they collapse like this, the surprise is in large part because we built them up in our heads. Or at least I did.
dubin: By the way, Murray just had a fantastic series while being guarded almost exclusively by Kawhi, PG and Pat Beverley. Think he’s gonna have an easier time against Danny Green, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Alex Caruso and Rajon Rondo?
Three of those four guys are consistently good defenders, and one (Rondo) has been good in the postseason. But man, they’re not on the level of the guys the Clippers threw at Murray.
chris.herring: I think that question is one that might define the series, Jared. That along with what happens between Jokić and Anthony Davis.
I really hope Lakers coach Frank Vogel doesn’t wait as long as Doc Rivers did to make adjustments, though.
tchow: Yeah, I’m going to be really interested to see how the Nuggets end up matching up against the Lakers, defensively more so than offensively.
dubin: There’s a 112 percent chance that Vogel is going back to the big lineup to start the series, right? I feel pretty confident in that happening.
tchow: I think the big lineup would be the obvious choice for the Lakers. Exploit one of your clear advantages.
chris.herring: … And that seems like a clear mistake to me.
Saw this note from Anthony Slater over at The Athletic:
The Lakers this year, against the Nuggets:
With Anthony Davis and JaVale McGee, 52 minutes total, and the Lakers were outscored by 18.
With Anthony Davis and Dwight Howard: 42 minutes, and the teams were even.
With Anthony Davis and neither big alongside him: 56 minutes, and the Lakers outscored Denver by 34.
tchow: OK, never mind then. Frank, if you’re reading this, rethink your starting five for Game 1 tomorrow.
Doesn’t Anthony Davis HATE playing center though?
dre.waters: Pretty sure he does, LOL.
dubin: If AD didn’t state publicly at almost every opportunity that he wants to be a power forward, I don’t think JaVale or Dwight would get any playoff minutes. But alas, AD does state that at basically every opportunity. It was one of the first things he said upon being traded to the Lakers.
chris.herring: Won’t the Lakers HATE Anthony Davis if he doesn’t play center in this series for long stretches, and they lose because of it?!
tchow: Yeah, this is probably a case of the needs of the team being more important than the wants of a player — but this is also the NBA.
dre.waters: I mean, if you’re literally playing for a shot at the championship, I would think Davis would be willing to make the sacrifice, if necessary.
dubin: Right? Bang with Jokić for four to seven games, and then you get Daniel Theis or Bam in the Finals, in what should presumably be less physically taxing (in the way Davis likes to avoid) matchups.
chris.herring: I took the Lakers in this series, but I’m also fully prepared for the Nuggets to make me look like an idiot one more time, for good measure.
As Jared said before, Murray isn’t going to see better defenders than he did last round, which has to be encouraging for the Nuggets. And the Nuggets do have a handful of bodies they can throw at LeBron James, though LeBron should be able to produce still.
tchow: Well, if Murray can play the way he played against two NBA All-Defensive second team players (Kawhi and Bev), maybe he’ll have another great series against just one NBA All-Defensive first team player in Davis, especially since Davis will probably guard Murray a total of zero minutes.
dubin: LeBron might be holding himself a little celebration at the fact that he gets to play Paul Millsap in the playoffs again.
chris.herring: Beats having to go through Kawhi for an entire series, you’d think.
dubin: Jerami Grant did a better job on Kawhi than I thought he would, but LeBron is even another level of physicality. That’s gonna be real tough on Grant.
chris.herring: The Lakers end up facing a slate of defenses that are ranked no better than 15th on their way to the Finals, if they get there.
dubin: Pretty nice road for a team that struggled in half-court offense for most of the year.
tchow: And then they would a defense ranked in the playoff top five on the other side of the conference in the Finals. Rude awakening?
chris.herring: If the Nuggets end up winning the series, what will have been the difference, do you think? Murray? Aside from Murray, what do the Nuggets have that puts them over the top?
tchow: They have point guard/center Nikola Jokić who puts them over the top.
dre.waters: I think Harris, Porter Jr. or Jerami Grant will have to be the difference. Denver is going to need someone else to step up offensively.
dubin: I would say the most likely factors would be Murray, cold shooting from the Green-KCP-Kuzma-Morris crew, and the Nuggets getting good games from Harris and two of Millsap-Grant-Porter every night.
chris.herring: Yeah: No. 1 on my “Family Feud” board would be cold Lakers shooting from the outside.
You have to be able to make the Nuggets pay for playing Porter Jr. long minutes. Gary Harris probably has to be a factor on both ends; not just defense.
dubin: It remains completely insane that the Clippers didn’t hunt Porter on defense like the Jazz did.
tchow: We should actually do a “Family Feud” board of things most likely to happen for the remainder of the playoffs and see who gets three X’s first. That’s kinda how “Family Feud” works right?
Check out our latest NBA predictions.


fivethirthyeight--2020-09-17--North Carolina Is Already Rejecting Black Voters’ Mail-In Ballots More Often Than White Voters’

In every election , a small percentage of mail-in ballots get rejected .
But this election is likely to have a whole lot of mail-in ballots .
And in an election where a record number of voters are expected to cast their ballots by mail , you ’ re likely to hear a whole lot about ballots that don ’ t count , especially because voters of color have ballots rejected at a higher rate than white voters .
It ’ s already happening .
In North Carolina , absentee ballots have already been sent back and the state has @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
As of September 17 , Black voters ’ ballots are being rejected at more than four times the rate of white voters , according to the state ’ s numbers .
Black voters have mailed in 13,747 ballots , with 642 rejected , or 4.7 percent .
White voters have cast 60,954 mail-in ballots , with 681 — or 1.1 percent — rejected .
In addition , 434 ballots cast by white voters and 127 ballots cast by Black voters were marked “ spoiled , ” which can mean literally spoiled or @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the election office that the address they had requested a ballot to is wrong .
( These are a tiny portion of the votes from one state , so obviously we have a long way to go before we know the full landscape of ballot rejection rates . )
The vast majority of these ballots were rejected because voters made a mistake or failed to fill out the witness information , according to state records .
A rejected ballot does not necessarily mean the voter is denied his or her vote : North @ @ @ @ @ @ @ vote curing , ” where voters are notified that there ’ s a mistake and given a chance to fix their ballot .
But that ’ s not an option in every state : only 19 states currently allow some form of ballot curing .
And even that isn ’ t foolproof .
In Nevada ’ s statewide primary in June , for example , 12,366 ballots had a missing or mismatched signature , but even after voters were notified to fix it , only 45 percent were successfully cured .
Meanwhile , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ not a problem unique to North Carolina .
Black voters and other voters of color frequently have their ballots rejected at a higher rate than white votes ( so do younger voters , on average ) .
In Florida ’ s 2018 midterm elections , ballots cast by Black voters , Hispanic voters and voters from other racial and ethnic minorities were rejected at twice the rate of ballots cast by white voters , according to a report from the Florida ACLU .
A team of university researchers found a similar pattern in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Black voters were rejected at a higher rate than those from white voters , even when accounting for county-level differences in rejection rates .
Part of this gap could be due to the fact that many Black voters and voters of color casting mail ballots are doing so for the first time , and first time vote-by-mail voters tend to make more mistakes because they ’ re less familiar with the requirements .
That ’ s true in North Carolina , too .
Michael Bitzer , a political scientist at Catawba College in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in the state and found that most voters who had their ballot rejected so far voted in person in 2016 .
“ We ’ re seeing already a lack of familiarity with the process , whether it ’ s signing the ballot or having the witness information completed , ” Bitzer said .
“ There tends to be a greater number from voters who were previously in-person voters .
If you look at the numbers [ from Sept. 14 ] , the ballots denied due to incomplete witness information , 55 percent of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 2016.
” That the barrier to entry is hitting voters of color harder than white voters is indicative of broader , systemic issues with enfranchisement .
“ When there ’ s a barrier , it ’ s going to fall hardest on the most disadvantaged and disenfranchised in the community , which is very frequently going to be poor voters and voters of color , ” said Myrna Pérez , the director of the voting rights and elections program at the Brennan Center for Justice .
Even if inexperience is largely to blame @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for concern since we ’ re expecting a record influx in mail-in voters this year .
In North Carolina alone , 837,685 of the state ’ s 7.1 million voters have requested absentee ballots so far .
And that ’ s part of the problem : In 2016 , nationally , 1 percent of mail-in ballots were rejected , according to the Election Assistance Commission ’ s aggregation of state reports .
( This number varies by state .
In Oregon , which has had mail-only elections for 20 years , 0.69 percent @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Georgia , 5.8 percent of mail-in ballots were rejected . )
But there were a lot fewer voters casting ballots by mail in 2016 .
Any vote lost is a problem , but 1 percent of a few million votes can be an election-defining one .
What ’ s the chance Trump loses the popular vote but wins the election again ?

In every election, a small percentage of mail-in ballots get rejected. But this election is likely to have a whole lot of mail-in ballots. And in an election where a record number of voters are expected to cast their ballots by mail, you’re likely to hear a whole lot about ballots that don’t count, especially because voters of color have ballots rejected at a higher rate than white voters.
It’s already happening. In North Carolina, absentee ballots have already been sent back and the state has been updating statistics on those ballots daily. As of September 17, Black voters’ ballots are being rejected at more than four times the rate of white voters, according to the state’s numbers. Black voters have mailed in 13,747 ballots, with 642 rejected, or 4.7 percent. White voters have cast 60,954 mail-in ballots, with 681 — or 1.1 percent — rejected. In addition, 434 ballots cast by white voters and 127 ballots cast by Black voters were marked “spoiled,” which can mean literally spoiled or something as simple as a voter informing the election office that the address they had requested a ballot to is wrong. (These are a tiny portion of the votes from one state, so obviously we have a long way to go before we know the full landscape of ballot rejection rates.)
The vast majority of these ballots were rejected because voters made a mistake or failed to fill out the witness information, according to state records. A rejected ballot does not necessarily mean the voter is denied his or her vote: North Carolina allows for a process called “vote curing,” where voters are notified that there’s a mistake and given a chance to fix their ballot. But that’s not an option in every state. And even that isn’t foolproof. In Nevada’s statewide primary in June, for example, 12,366 ballots had a missing or mismatched signature, but even after voters were notified to fix it, only 45 percent were successfully cured.
Meanwhile, the racial gap in rejected ballots is not a problem unique to North Carolina.
Black voters and other voters of color frequently have their ballots rejected at a higher rate than white votes (so do younger voters, on average). In Florida’s 2018 midterm elections, ballots cast by Black voters, Hispanic voters and voters from other racial and ethnic minorities were rejected at twice the rate of ballots cast by white voters, according to a report from the Florida ACLU. A team of university researchers found a similar pattern in Georgia that year, where ballots from Black voters were rejected at a higher rate than those from white voters, even when accounting for county-level differences in rejection rates.
Part of this gap could be due to the fact that many Black voters and voters of color casting mail ballots are doing so for the first time, and first time vote-by-mail voters tend to make more mistakes because they’re less familiar with the requirements. That’s true in North Carolina, too. Michael Bitzer, a political scientist at Catawba College in North Carolina, compared historical voter records in the state and found that most voters who had their ballot rejected so far voted in person in 2016.
“We’re seeing already a lack of familiarity with the process, whether it’s signing the ballot or having the witness information completed,” Bitzer said. “There tends to be a greater number from voters who were previously in-person voters. If you look at the numbers [from Sept. 14], the ballots denied due to incomplete witness information, 55 percent of those voters had voted in person in 2016.”
That the barrier to entry is hitting voters of color harder than white voters is indicative of broader, systemic issues with enfranchisement.
“When there’s a barrier, it’s going to fall hardest on the most disadvantaged and disenfranchised in the community, which is very frequently going to be poor voters and voters of color,” said Myrna Pérez, the director of the voting rights and elections program at the Brennan Center for Justice.
Even if inexperience is largely to blame, that’s still a reason for concern since we’re expecting a record influx in mail-in voters this year. In North Carolina alone, 837,685 of the state’s 7.1 million voters have requested absentee ballots so far.
And that’s part of the problem: In 2016, nationally, 1 percent of mail-in ballots were rejected, according to the Election Assistance Commission’s aggregation of state reports. (This number varies by state. In Oregon, which has had mail-only elections for 20 years, 0.69 percent of mail ballots were rejected. In Georgia, 5.8 percent of mail-in ballots were rejected.) But there were a lot fewer voters casting ballots by mail in 2016. Any vote lost is a problem, but 1 percent of a few million votes can be an election-defining one.
CORRECTION (September 21, 2020, 11:55 a.m.): An earlier version of this article relied on an out-of-date list of states that allow ballot curing. To avoid confusion, we have removed the number of states that allow this.
What’s the chance Trump loses the popular vote but wins the election again?