fivethirthyeight--2020-12-14--Warnock And Ossoff Are Testing A New Strategy For Democrats In The South

For most of the past four years , the Midwest occupied the leading spot on the marquee of U.S. electoral politics .
Voters there helped tip the Electoral College toward Donald Trump in 2016 , as he eked out victories in Michigan , Pennsylvania and Wisconsin .
And rebuilding the so-called blue wall was in part why Democrats chose an older , white , relatively moderate man as their presidential nominee in 2020 .
That strategy worked .
Joe Biden narrowly carried all three states , providing him the Electoral College margins to win the presidency .
But now a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for top billing : the South .
It ’ s almost impossible to overstate the importance of Georgia ’ s two U.S. Senate runoff elections on Jan. 5 , which feature Republican Sen. Kelly Loeffler facing Democrat Raphael Warnock in one race and Republican Sen. David Perdue versus Democrat Jon Ossoff in the other .
If Democrats win both races , they would effectively control the Senate , giving the party a governing trifecta in Washington .
Georgia , though , is a much different place than the Midwest .
That ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ differences lead to important distinctions in what we can expect from campaigns there .
What makes Georgia electorally unlike most swing states is its large Black population .
About 33 percent of Georgians are Black , a much higher share than the nation overall ( 13 percent ) and higher than all but two other states ( Mississippi and Louisiana ) .
To be more precise , what ’ s really different about Georgia ’ s electoral politics is that Democrats there are disproportionately Black .
Like in most states , Republican voters @ @ @ @ @ @ @ nationally — even in the Democratic Party — non-Hispanic white people are by far the biggest bloc .
We don ’ t ( and will never ) have exact figures for this , but nationally in 2020 , it ’ s likely that more than 60 percent of Biden voters were white and fewer than 20 percent were Black .
But in Georgia , there were very likely more Black Biden supporters than white ones — in fact , Black voters may have been an outright majority of his supporters .
A large @ @ @ @ @ @ @ base in Georgia is Black , and they have a huge influence on the campaigns to win these two Senate races , including in ways the party has little control over .
That ’ s been especially true recently , as the region has grown more racially diverse and suburban .
And we are likely to see more Black-centered campaigns in Southern states in the future , particularly if Warnock or Ossoff ( or both ) wins .
A potential new model for Democratic campaigns in the South Warnock and Ossoff are somewhat @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in the South and get strong backing from the Democratic Party — Warnock is Black , Ossoff is a fairly liberal Jewish 33-year-old .
For much of the past four decades , as the Republican Party has increasingly gained strength in the South , the Democratic Party has employed a two-pronged strategy to try to limit its losses : take more conservative stands than the national Democratic Party on some policies and embrace white candidates , usually men , in key statewide races .
That strategy didn ’ t really work overall , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ was wrong either — there was probably not any way to prevent the South from shifting Republican over the past several decades .
And in some specific cases that strategy has worked .
Currently , the three Democratic governors in Southern states that are red or purple politically are all white men : Kentucky ’ s Andy Beshear , North Carolina ’ s Roy Cooper and Louisiana ’ s Jon Bel Edwards .
As are the only two senators , Alabama ’ s Doug Jones and West Virginia ’ s Joe Manchin .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ conservative Democrats .
In Georgia , Biden outperformed Warnock and Ossoff , and that might have been because Biden is an older white man who is often cast in the media as more conservative than other Democrats .
That strategy also has downsides , though .
It steers the party toward candidates who sometimes don ’ t share the views of the party ’ s base on key issues — Edwards is opposed to abortion rights , for example — and away from candidates who are people of color .
Stacey Abrams had @ @ @ @ @ @ @ growing number of voters of color in the South and the region ’ s liberalism on some issues .
Not only is she a Black woman , of course , but her own 2018 gubernatorial campaign was a decided break from this strategy , as it emphasized outreach to people of color and didn ’ t tack to the right on key issues .
Her strong showing suggested Democrats in statewide races could be competitive in the South without going the conservative-ish-white-guy route .
The 2020 election results reinforce that conclusion to some @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in Mississippi ( Mike Espy ) and South Carolina ( Jaime Harrison ) lost by substantial margins , but Biden lost in those states by even more , suggesting those Black candidates didn ’ t suffer from a major racial backlash .
Warnock and the other Democrats in his Senate race combined won 48.4 percent of the total vote , and Ossoff won 47.9 percent ; Biden won 49.5 percent in Georgia .
Also , Jones , who is fairly old ( 66 ) and not that liberal , was blown away in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ results aren ’ t too surprising .
The Democratic Party that has emerged from the Obama-Trump era is a multiracial coalition of people with generally more progressive attitudes about racial issues .
The GOP is a mostly white coalition of people who tend to have less progressive attitudes about racial issues .
And more and more Americans are voting by party instead of ticket splitting .
So , in most races , Democrats aren ’ t going to win a lot of votes from conservative-leaning white people , particularly in the South , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ man who is somewhat conservative .
And they are going to win the votes of white people with more progressive attitudes on racial issues , even if the candidate is not a white Christian older man .
Those conditions help explain how Warnock and Ossoff — who are unlike most previous Democratic candidates in Georgia — ended up at the center of U.S. politics .
Ossoff won the Democratic primary for the Perdue seat in June in part because he had built a big following and fundraising network from his unsuccessful 2017 run @ @ @ @ @ @ @ got a lot of national attention .
But the more interesting story is how Ossoff won the Democratic primary in 2017 , when several other Democrats also sought the seat in Georgia ’ s 6th District in the suburbs of Atlanta .
After all , Ossoff wasn ’ t exactly an obvious candidate — a lawyer or doctor or someone who had served in office before — at the time .
Only 30 years old , he was running a documentary film company and didn ’ t actually live within the district ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ neighboring district closer to where his now-wife worked ) .
The explanation for how Ossoff won is pretty simple .
In his initial House run , Ossoff got the enthusiastic support of two Atlanta-area congressmen , Hank Johnson and , more significantly , John Lewis .
Ossoff had interned in Lewis ’ s congressional office and then worked on Johnson ’ s campaign and in his D.C. office .
It ’ s fairly unusual for a white man to work in the congressional offices of two Black House members and use that as @ @ @ @ @ @ @ career .
But the top ranks of elected officials in the Atlanta area are made up largely of Black Democrats and white Republicans — so it was entirely logical that someone like Ossoff , a politically inclined white Democrat who grew up in the Atlanta area , would end up working for Black politicians .
And with the Atlanta area growing increasingly diverse and its white voters likely becoming more liberal on racial issues after Trump ’ s election , Ossoff ’ s associations with two Black members of Congress were great credentials @ @ @ @ @ @ @ later run for the Senate .
Atlanta ’ s Black political class in some ways accidentally birthed Ossoff as a U.S. Senate candidate .
“ When he [ Ossoff ] announced his Senate campaign last year , his first major rally was with none other than John Lewis .
The congressman told me afterward he would do everything he could to help energize Black voters for Ossoff , ” said Greg Bluestein , a political reporter at The Atlanta Journal-Constitution .
Warnock is more obviously rooted in Atlanta ’ s Black scene .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ has served for 15 years as the senior pastor of Ebenezer , the 6,000-member Baptist church that was led by Martin Luther King Sr. for decades , with Martin Luther King Jr. serving as a co-pastor from 1960 until he was assassinated in 1968 .
Politicians , including some Republicans , have long visited the church as part of their outreach to Black voters .
And even before becoming a candidate , Warnock had been politically engaged himself , leading a protest at the state ’ s capitol in an effort to get @ @ @ @ @ @ @ flirted with a U.S. Senate run back in 2016 .
But Warnock ’ s decision to run for the Senate this year wasn ’ t just about his own political ambitions — the Democratic Party really wanted him to run , in part because of his race .
There was some grumbling among Georgia Democrats in 2019 that Ossoff and most of the other leading contenders in the Democratic primary for Perdue ’ s seat were white .
So , last fall , when then-Sen. Johnny Isakson , a Republican , announced his @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Senate election in 2020 , Democratic leaders in Washington , as well as Abrams , strongly encouraged Warnock to run .
Warnock formally announced his candidacy in January .
He was not the only Democratic candidate who ran for the seat vacated by Isakson , which Gov .
Brain Kemp appointed Leoffler to fill .
But the Democratic Party did everything it could to make sure that Warnock — not his Democratic rival Matt Lieberman , who is white and the son of the former longtime Connecticut senator Joe Lieberman — was the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
The Democrats ’ Senate campaign arm , along with Sen. Cory Booker and Abrams , endorsed Warnock right at the start of his campaign , and other party officials , mostly notably former President Obama , also got behind him .
In the November election — which included more than a dozen candidates overall ( and several from both parties because of the special election rules triggered by Isakson ’ s resignation ) — Warnock ended up getting about 33 percent of the vote , while Lieberman got just under 3 percent @ @ @ @ @ @ @ slate in Georgia .
But we ’ ve also seen some subtle differences compared with past Democratic candidates in how Warnock and Ossoff have campaigned after making it to the runoffs .
Connecting to Black voters in ways that don ’ t annoy white voters Neither Ossoff nor Warnock is saying anything particularly bold on racial issues to appeal to Black voters .
That ’ s not surprising .
Ossoff and Warnock can ’ t take a stand on any issue , racial or nonracial , that is likely to alienate a lot @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Democratic campaign needs to win around 30 percent of white voters in Georgia to carry the state — and that ’ s often where they fall short .
Biden ran slightly ahead of both Ossoff and the combined total of Warnock and all the other Democrats in the other Senate race , suggesting that there may be some white moderates or independents who couldn ’ t stomach Trump but were fine with backing a Republican for Senate .
Democrats need those voters to either stay home on Election Day or flip to the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ reparations , which are popular among Black voters , are off the table , as they would likely not appeal to white swing voters in Georgia .
Instead , Ossoff and Warnock ’ s approach is similar to Abrams ’ s campaign in 2018 , when she ran for governor : a lot of focus on showing connectedness to Georgia ’ s Black community , but not a ton of policy , particularly on more controversial issues specifically aimed at Black people .
Both Senate candidates frequently tout their connections to the civil @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Lewis for Ossoff , King for Warnock ) .
Both candidates are prominently featuring Obama in their campaigns — the former president praised Ossoff in a new TV commercial and appeared in a recent virtual rally for Ossoff and Warnock .
And both men emphasize their support for the John Lewis Voting Rights Act , a measure that would essentially restore requirements that some states pre-clear with the U.S. Justice Department any changes in their voting procedures .
Ossoff , as the white candidate who needs a lot of Black support , regularly @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Democrats .
( “ Black voters are the heart and soul of the Democratic electorate here in Georgia , ” he told Yahoo News in a recent interview . )
Warnock emphasizes parts of his upbringing likely to resonate with Black people in particular : his mother picking tobacco and cotton when she was young ; his family living in public housing when he was a kid ; his college days at Morehouse , which he paid for in part with Pell Grants .
The pastor also has a commercial in which he @ @ @ @ @ @ @ store as a 12-year-old because the workers there thought he had stolen something — they were suspicious because Warnock is Black and had his hands in his pockets .
“ Warnock and Ossoff back stances that are largely popular with Black voters — including Medicaid expansion , decriminalizing marijuana and tackling student debt — that would also level the playing field some in terms of systemic inequality , ” said Terrence Clark , Warnoff ’ s communications director .
Clark noted that both candidates speak openly and directly about how that inequality hurts @ @ @ @ @ @ @ worried about a backlash from this kind of racialized rhetoric .
In Clark ’ s view , white voters in Georgia and across the country have “ largely moved toward the left on social issues , so the electorate is not as sharply divided on issues that historically animate Black voters.
” And even as they take rather safe positions on racial issues , Ossoff and Warnock aren ’ t likely to join leading Democratic Party figures like Obama who are criticizing activists adopting more controversial stands like defunding the police .
Why @ @ @ @ @ @ @ strong turnout and support from all parts of the Black community , including younger Black people who might agree with more leftish positions .
And Black Lives Matter and other left-leaning activist groups are on the ground in Georgia , trying to help the Democrats win there .
So Ossoff and Warnock have little incentive to antagonize them .
“ The idea that Black candidates can ’ t do as well as white candidates in the South has been untrue for years , and the operatives and politicians that push that narrative are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ won sh– in the last 25 years , ” said Trey Nix , a Democratic political strategist who often works on races in the South , including Cooper ’ s last two gubernatorial campaigns in North Carolina .
“ Part of the future of winning in the South for Democrats is in candidates like Warnock and Abrams , ” Nix added .
Maybe .
If Ossoff , Warnock or both do fairly poorly ( finishing at , say , 45 percent or below ) , then perhaps the recent blue shift in Georgia @ @ @ @ @ @ @ need Biden types in states like Georgia to be competitive now that the Trump era is likely over .
But as long as Ossoff and Warnock do decently well — getting at least 46 to 49 percent of the vote or winning — I suspect we are going to see more young , non-Christian , women and/or people of color as Democratic candidates in key races in the South ( as opposed to just older centrist white men ) .
In fact , soon after these Senate races are over , Georgia is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ statewide and playing up her ties to the Black community : Abrams , who is expected to launch a second campaign for governor sometime in 2021 .
I doubt we have seen the last of Biden-Edwards-Jones-style candidates in the South .
But what Abrams has dubbed the “ Abrams playbook ” for Democrats in Georgia in particular — trying to win a coalition of progressive white voters and people of color with candidates and strategies that connect with those two blocs — may eventually be the default Democratic Party playbook for the South @ @ @ @ @ @ @ health , jobs , and justice , ” Ossoff said in a recent Twitter message , sounding like a civil rights activist as much as a politician .
He added , “ @ ReverendWarnock and I are building a multiracial , multi generational coalition : The New South .
”

For most of the past four years, the Midwest occupied the leading spot on the marquee of U.S. electoral politics. Voters there helped tip the Electoral College toward Donald Trump in 2016, as he eked out victories in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. And rebuilding the so-called blue wall was in part why Democrats chose an older, white, relatively moderate man as their presidential nominee in 2020. That strategy worked. Joe Biden narrowly carried all three states, providing him the Electoral College margins to win the presidency.
But now a new star has elbowed out the Midwest for top billing: the South. It’s almost impossible to overstate the importance of Georgia’s two U.S. Senate runoff elections on Jan. 5, which feature Republican Sen. Kelly Loeffler facing Democrat Raphael Warnock in one race and Republican Sen. David Perdue versus Democrat Jon Ossoff in the other. If Democrats win both races, they would effectively control the Senate, giving the party a governing trifecta in Washington.
The electoral problems facing Republicans | FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast
Georgia, though, is a much different place than the Midwest. That’s obvious, of course, but those differences lead to important distinctions in what we can expect from campaigns there. What makes Georgia electorally unlike most swing states is its large Black population. About 33 percent of Georgians are Black, a much higher share than the nation overall (13 percent) and higher than all but two other states (Mississippi and Louisiana).
[Related: Latest Polls Of The Georgia Senate Runoff Elections]
To be more precise, what’s really different about Georgia’s electoral politics is that Democrats there are disproportionately Black. Like in most states, Republican voters in Georgia are overwhelmingly white. And nationally — even in the Democratic Party — non-Hispanic white people are by far the biggest bloc. We don’t (and will never) have exact figures for this, but nationally in 2020, it’s likely that more than 60 percent of Biden voters were white and fewer than 20 percent were Black. But in Georgia, there were very likely more Black Biden supporters than white ones — in fact, Black voters may have been an outright majority of his supporters.
A large share of the Democratic Party’s base in Georgia is Black, and they have a huge influence on the campaigns to win these two Senate races, including in ways the party has little control over. That’s been especially true recently, as the region has grown more racially diverse and suburban. And we are likely to see more Black-centered campaigns in Southern states in the future, particularly if Warnock or Ossoff (or both) wins.
A potential new model for Democratic campaigns in the South
Warnock and Ossoff are somewhat unusual candidates to run for statewide office in the South and get strong backing from the Democratic Party — Warnock is Black, Ossoff is a fairly liberal Jewish 33-year-old. For much of the past four decades, as the Republican Party has increasingly gained strength in the South, the Democratic Party has employed a two-pronged strategy to try to limit its losses: take more conservative stands than the national Democratic Party on some policies and embrace white candidates, usually men, in key statewide races. That strategy didn’t really work overall, but it’s not clear it was wrong either — there was probably not any way to prevent the South from shifting Republican over the past several decades.
And in some specific cases that strategy has worked. Currently, the three Democratic governors in Southern states that are red or purple politically are all white men: Kentucky’s Andy Beshear, North Carolina’s Roy Cooper and Louisiana’s Jon Bel Edwards. As are the only two senators, Alabama’s Doug Jones and West Virginia’s Joe Manchin. Edwards and Manchin in particular are fairly conservative Democrats. In Georgia, Biden outperformed Warnock and Ossoff, and that might have been because Biden is an older white man who is often cast in the media as more conservative than other Democrats.
That strategy also has downsides, though. It steers the party toward candidates who sometimes don’t share the views of the party’s base on key issues — Edwards is opposed to abortion rights, for example — and away from candidates who are people of color.
Stacey Abrams had long criticized that approach as ignoring the growing number of voters of color in the South and the region’s liberalism on some issues. Not only is she a Black woman, of course, but her own 2018 gubernatorial campaign was a decided break from this strategy, as it emphasized outreach to people of color and didn’t tack to the right on key issues. Her strong showing suggested Democrats in statewide races could be competitive in the South without going the conservative-ish-white-guy route.
The 2020 election results reinforce that conclusion to some extent. Black male Democratic Senate candidates in Mississippi (Mike Espy) and South Carolina (Jaime Harrison) lost by substantial margins, but Biden lost in those states by even more, suggesting those Black candidates didn’t suffer from a major racial backlash. Warnock and the other Democrats in his Senate race combined won 48.4 percent of the total vote, and Ossoff won 47.9 percent; Biden won 49.5 percent in Georgia.
Also, Jones, who is fairly old (66) and not that liberal, was blown away in his reelection bid in Alabama.
Those results aren’t too surprising. The Democratic Party that has emerged from the Obama-Trump era is a multiracial coalition of people with generally more progressive attitudes about racial issues. The GOP is a mostly white coalition of people who tend to have less progressive attitudes about racial issues. And more and more Americans are voting by party instead of ticket splitting.
[Related: Politics Podcast: The Electoral Challenges Facing The Republican Party]
So, in most races, Democrats aren’t going to win a lot of votes from conservative-leaning white people, particularly in the South, even if they run an older white man who is somewhat conservative. And they are going to win the votes of white people with more progressive attitudes on racial issues, even if the candidate is not a white Christian older man.
Those conditions help explain how Warnock and Ossoff — who are unlike most previous Democratic candidates in Georgia — ended up at the center of U.S. politics.
Two candidates tied to Atlanta’s Black political class
Ossoff won the Democratic primary for the Perdue seat in June in part because he had built a big following and fundraising network from his unsuccessful 2017 run in a U.S. House special election that got a lot of national attention. But the more interesting story is how Ossoff won the Democratic primary in 2017, when several other Democrats also sought the seat in Georgia’s 6th District in the suburbs of Atlanta. After all, Ossoff wasn’t exactly an obvious candidate — a lawyer or doctor or someone who had served in office before — at the time. Only 30 years old, he was running a documentary film company and didn’t actually live within the district’s borders (he lived in a neighboring district closer to where his now-wife worked).
The explanation for how Ossoff won is pretty simple. In his initial House run, Ossoff got the enthusiastic support of two Atlanta-area congressmen, Hank Johnson and, more significantly, John Lewis. Ossoff had interned in Lewis’s congressional office and then worked on Johnson’s campaign and in his D.C. office. It’s fairly unusual for a white man to work in the congressional offices of two Black House members and use that as a launching pad for his own political career. But the top ranks of elected officials in the Atlanta area are made up largely of Black Democrats and white Republicans — so it was entirely logical that someone like Ossoff, a politically inclined white Democrat who grew up in the Atlanta area, would end up working for Black politicians. And with the Atlanta area growing increasingly diverse and its white voters likely becoming more liberal on racial issues after Trump’s election, Ossoff’s associations with two Black members of Congress were great credentials for his 2017 House campaign and to later run for the Senate. Atlanta’s Black political class in some ways accidentally birthed Ossoff as a U.S. Senate candidate.
Why did down-ballot Democrats have such a mediocre showing?
“When he [Ossoff] announced his Senate campaign last year, his first major rally was with none other than John Lewis. The congressman told me afterward he would do everything he could to help energize Black voters for Ossoff,” said Greg Bluestein, a political reporter at The Atlanta Journal-Constitution.
Warnock is more obviously rooted in Atlanta’s Black scene. He is Black himself. And he has served for 15 years as the senior pastor of Ebenezer, the 6,000-member Baptist church that was led by Martin Luther King Sr. for decades, with Martin Luther King Jr. serving as a co-pastor from 1960 until he was assassinated in 1968. Politicians, including some Republicans, have long visited the church as part of their outreach to Black voters. And even before becoming a candidate, Warnock had been politically engaged himself, leading a protest at the state’s capitol in an effort to get Medicaid expanded in Georgia; he even flirted with a U.S. Senate run back in 2016.
But Warnock’s decision to run for the Senate this year wasn’t just about his own political ambitions — the Democratic Party really wanted him to run, in part because of his race. There was some grumbling among Georgia Democrats in 2019 that Ossoff and most of the other leading contenders in the Democratic primary for Perdue’s seat were white. So, last fall, when then-Sen. Johnny Isakson, a Republican, announced his retirement, setting up a second Georgia Senate election in 2020, Democratic leaders in Washington, as well as Abrams, strongly encouraged Warnock to run.
[Related: Where Are Georgia’s Senate Candidates Getting All That Cash From?]
Warnock formally announced his candidacy in January. He was not the only Democratic candidate who ran for the seat vacated by Isakson, which Gov. Brian Kemp appointed Loeffler to fill. But the Democratic Party did everything it could to make sure that Warnock — not his Democratic rival Matt Lieberman, who is white and the son of the former longtime Connecticut senator Joe Lieberman — was the Democratic candidate to advance to the runoff. The Democrats’ Senate campaign arm, along with Sen. Cory Booker and Abrams, endorsed Warnock right at the start of his campaign, and other party officials, mostly notably former President Obama, also got behind him. In the November election — which included more than a dozen candidates overall (and several from both parties because of the special election rules triggered by Isakson’s resignation) — Warnock ended up getting about 33 percent of the vote, while Lieberman got just under 3 percent.
So the Democrats avoided an all-white slate in Georgia. But we’ve also seen some subtle differences compared with past Democratic candidates in how Warnock and Ossoff have campaigned after making it to the runoffs.
Connecting to Black voters in ways that don’t annoy white voters
Neither Ossoff nor Warnock is saying anything particularly bold on racial issues to appeal to Black voters. That’s not surprising. Ossoff and Warnock can’t take a stand on any issue, racial or nonracial, that is likely to alienate a lot of white voters in Georgia. A Democratic campaign needs to win around 30 percent of white voters in Georgia to carry the state — and that’s often where they fall short. Biden ran slightly ahead of both Ossoff and the combined total of Warnock and all the other Democrats in the other Senate race, suggesting that there may be some white moderates or independents who couldn’t stomach Trump but were fine with backing a Republican for Senate. Democrats need those voters to either stay home on Election Day or flip to the Democratic Party. So racial ideas like reparations, which are popular among Black voters, are off the table, as they would likely not appeal to white swing voters in Georgia.
Instead, Ossoff and Warnock’s approach is similar to Abrams’s campaign in 2018, when she ran for governor: a lot of focus on showing connectedness to Georgia’s Black community, but not a ton of policy, particularly on more controversial issues specifically aimed at Black people. Both Senate candidates frequently tout their connections to the civil rights-era hero they are associated with (Lewis for Ossoff, King for Warnock). Both candidates are prominently featuring Obama in their campaigns — the former president praised Ossoff in a new TV commercial and appeared in a recent virtual rally for Ossoff and Warnock. And both men emphasize their support for the John Lewis Voting Rights Act, a measure that would essentially restore requirements that some states pre-clear with the U.S. Justice Department any changes in their voting procedures.
Ossoff, as the white candidate who needs a lot of Black support, regularly pays homage to Georgia’s Black Democrats. (“Black voters are the heart and soul of the Democratic electorate here in Georgia,” he told Yahoo News in a recent interview.) Warnock emphasizes parts of his upbringing likely to resonate with Black people in particular: his mother picking tobacco and cotton when she was young; his family living in public housing when he was a kid; his college days at Morehouse, which he paid for in part with Pell Grants. The pastor also has a commercial in which he talks about being dragged out of a store as a 12-year-old because the workers there thought he had stolen something — they were suspicious because Warnock is Black and had his hands in his pockets.
[Why So Many Men Stuck With Trump In 2020]
“Warnock and Ossoff back stances that are largely popular with Black voters — including Medicaid expansion, decriminalizing marijuana and tackling student debt — that would also level the playing field some in terms of systemic inequality,” said Terrence Clark, Warnock’s communications director. Clark noted that both candidates speak openly and directly about how that inequality hurts Black people especially and aren’t worried about a backlash from this kind of racialized rhetoric. In Clark’s view, white voters in Georgia and across the country have “largely moved toward the left on social issues, so the electorate is not as sharply divided on issues that historically animate Black voters.”
And even as they take rather safe positions on racial issues, Ossoff and Warnock aren’t likely to join leading Democratic Party figures like Obama who are criticizing activists adopting more controversial stands like defunding the police. Why not? Because Ossoff and Warnock need strong turnout and support from all parts of the Black community, including younger Black people who might agree with more leftish positions. And Black Lives Matter and other left-leaning activist groups are on the ground in Georgia, trying to help the Democrats win there. So Ossoff and Warnock have little incentive to antagonize them.
“The idea that Black candidates can’t do as well as white candidates in the South has been untrue for years, and the operatives and politicians that push that narrative are generally speaking people who haven’t won sh– in the last 25 years,” said Trey Nix, a Democratic political strategist who often works on races in the South, including Cooper’s last two gubernatorial campaigns in North Carolina.
“Part of the future of winning in the South for Democrats is in candidates like Warnock and Abrams,” Nix added.
Maybe. If Ossoff, Warnock or both do fairly poorly (finishing at, say, 45 percent or below), then perhaps the recent blue shift in Georgia was really just anti-Trump sentiment and Democrats need Biden types in states like Georgia to be competitive now that the Trump era is likely over.
But as long as Ossoff and Warnock do decently well — getting at least 46 to 49 percent of the vote or winning — I suspect we are going to see more young, non-Christian, women and/or people of color as Democratic candidates in key races in the South (as opposed to just older centrist white men). In fact, soon after these Senate races are over, Georgia is likely to have another Democratic candidate running statewide and playing up her ties to the Black community: Abrams, who is expected to launch a second campaign for governor sometime in 2021.
I doubt we have seen the last of Biden-Edwards-Jones-style candidates in the South. But what Abrams has dubbed the “Abrams playbook” for Democrats in Georgia in particular — trying to win a coalition of progressive white voters and people of color with candidates and strategies that connect with those two blocs — may eventually be the default Democratic Party playbook for the South.
“This is a movement for health, jobs, and justice,” Ossoff said in a recent Twitter message, sounding like a civil rights activist as much as a politician.
He added, “@ReverendWarnock and I are building a multiracial, multi generational coalition: The New South.”
Don’t believe anything 2020 exit polls tell you | FiveThirtyEight


fivethirthyeight--2020-12-14--Politics Podcast: Why Republicans Still Doubt The Election Results

The two biggest stories of 2020 in the U.S. — the pandemic and the election — are finding some closure @ @ @ @ @ really just entering its next phase .
The conflicts and challenges presented by both the @ @ @ @ @ s attempts to overturn the election results are not over .
In this installment of @ @ @ @ @ the crew discusses how we got to this moment and what comes next .
You @ @ @ @ @ by clicking the “ play ” button in the audio player above or by downloading @ @ @ @ @ ESPN App or your favorite podcast platform .
If you are new to podcasts , @ @ @ @ @ The FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast is recorded Mondays and Thursdays .
Help new listeners discover the @ @ @ @ @ rating and review on iTunes .
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The two biggest stories of 2020 in the U.S. — the pandemic and the election — are finding some closure today, though each is really just entering its next phase. The conflicts and challenges presented by both the pandemic and President Trump’s attempts to overturn the election results are not over. In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast, the crew discusses how we got to this moment and what comes next.
You can listen to the episode by clicking the “play” button in the audio player above or by downloading it in iTunes, the ESPN App or your favorite podcast platform. If you are new to podcasts, learn how to listen.
The FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast is recorded Mondays and Thursdays. Help new listeners discover the show by leaving us a rating and review on iTunes. Have a comment, question or suggestion for “good polling vs. bad polling”? Get in touch by email, on Twitter or in the comments.


fivethirthyeight--2020-12-14--The Saints And Steelers Hit A Rut At The Worst Time

sara.ziegler ( Sara Ziegler , sports editor ) : Week 14 of the NFL season is just about in the books , with only one game outstanding , for a change .
This week , we saw a one-handed interception that doubled as one of the best catches of the year , a kicker for a certain NFC North team miss four ( 4 ! )
kicks , and maybe the worst game management in the history of the NFL ( in a game the offending Chargers actually won ) .
But let ’ s focus on two teams that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in the driver ’ s seats for first-round byes but now are on the outside looking in : the New Orleans Saints and the Pittsburgh Steelers .
Let ’ s start with the Saints .
They should get Drew Brees back soon , but did they go to the well one too many times with Taysom Hill ?
neil ( Neil Paine , senior sportswriter ) : I wasn ’ t surprised this happened eventually … although maybe I was a little surprised it happened against the Eagles , with Jalen Hurts making @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Josh Hermsmeyer , NFL analyst ) : It was appropriate that Hill lose to another QB who ended up winning with his legs more than his arm .
For the symmetry of the thing .
And Taysom flipped the script and ended up passing for 291 yards and two touchdowns !
Salfino ( Michael Salfino , FiveThirtyEight contributor ) : I know they were shut out in the first half , but I thought Hill was fine — not good but not bad .
His Total Quarterback Rating was actually good .
I @ @ @ @ @ @ @ was that their red-hot defense suddenly had no answers for the running of Hurts .
neil : Taysom outdueled Matt Ryan twice but was outplayed by Hurts ( according to our QB Elo metric , at least ) .
Go figure .
sara.ziegler : I thought the Eagles would falter at the end of that game , with the pressure on , but they held it together nicely .
neil : I had flashbacks to another blown 17-0 lead by Philly this year — aka the last time they looked truly promising .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ Hurts ?
Is he the answer for Philly ?
Salfino : Hurts was great .
I thought the Saints were going to shut down the run and force him to play quarterback from inside the pocket .
But instead , he ran wild .
It ’ s interesting that the Eagles have a record five QBs now in the Super Bowl era to rush for at least 100 yards in a game .
They are the kings of running QBs .
Also note that Hurts wasn ’ t sacked at all , and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Wentz this year — 50 in 12 games !
That ’ s with the Eagles ranked 10th on the season in Pass Block Win Rate .
joshua.hermsmeyer : Yes , I think Hurts is an upgrade over Wentz .
According to one of those ridiculously overspecified filters on Pro-Football-Reference.com , among players with at least 60 rushing yards and one passing TD in their first career start , Hurts had the most yards rushing !
Salfino : Josh , what does the front office do now with Wentz ?
Is Wentz too big @ @ @ @ @ @ @ I think you hold on to both QBs for now .
With Wentz ’ s contract , you probably can ’ t get enough in a trade to make it worthwhile , and having a capable backup behind a running QB is smart .
neil : I thought this spin was funny on Sunday morning .
“ We still believe in him !
This Adam Schefter report isn ’ t at all intended to salvage whatever trade value he has left !
” Salfino : It ’ s either keep him or eat @ @ @ @ @ @ @ I thought .
neil : There are ways they could trade him and make the cap penalty less painful , but it ’ s still a big hit .
joshua.hermsmeyer : Also , I would simply point to Nick Foles and say , “ Trust in fate.
” Now go get ’ em , Carson !
neil : The Hollywood ending to this is that the Eagles win the NFC East , Wentz has to come in for Hurts at some point , and he proves the doubters wrong on a Super Bowl @ @ @ @ @ @ @ NFC East playoff odds now , Neil ?
neil : The Eagles have an 11 percent chance , according to our model .
The Washington Football Team is at 73 percent ; the New York Giants are at 15 percent .
Not a great day for the Giants on Sunday , btw .
Salfino : The model doesn ’ t know that Dwayne Haskins is starting again for Washington , though .
neil : It actually does !
Salfino : Washington needs a game manager , IMO .
Haskins is decidedly not that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
I believe his strength is as a field processor , reading the defense .
He just has not shown that well in the NFL so far .
neil : Washington is in the driver ’ s seat now , although they do need to finish a game clear of the Giants to avoid a tiebreaker ( their two head-to-head losses vs. Da G Men ) .
Salfino : My favorite stat is that Daniel Jones is 2-17 in his last 19 starts against non-WFT .
sara.ziegler : I like that Hurts ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ than that of Jones … and Haskins … and Wentz .
neil : The model loved his game Sunday .
The Saints D had been very good against opposing QBs all season , but Hurts was reasonably efficient passing against them — and he added 106 rushing yards .
sara.ziegler : So the Eagles have a little more life now , but what about what that game did to the Saints ’ playoff situation ?
They ’ ll have a much tougher time getting the first-round bye now .
joshua.hermsmeyer : This is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ : WE HAVE KORNACKI AT HOME .
Salfino : I have a hard time valuing the No .
1 seed this year relative to prior years .
And going without it has certainly been overcome before .
I think the Saints are clearly a better team than the Packers , no matter where they play .
I think the Rams are better than the Packers , too .
joshua.hermsmeyer : I believe the consensus is the bye is even more valuable this season .
neil : Oh , absolutely .
One fewer playoff @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Salfino : Because only one team gets it ?
neil : Right , everyone else has to play that round .
The model does give the Packers the edge for the NFC bye , 59 percent to 33 percent ( the Rams and Seahawks also still have slim odds ) , and it comes down to the remaining schedule .
The Saints still have to face scary Kansas City and half-decent Minnesota , along with a Carolina game on the road .
Green Bay gets Carolina at home and faces Tennessee ( @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and the mediocre Bears .
joshua.hermsmeyer : The Saints-Chiefs game Sunday will be a great one .
If New Orleans wins , we give them both about the same odds to win the Super Bowl .
neil : And Brees might play ?
But we don ’ t know .
sara.ziegler : Yeah , we need Brees for that game .
Salfino : The old Brees .
Not the Brees who is old .
neil : Brees has still soundly outplayed Hill this year , for what it ’ s worth .
sara.ziegler @ @ @ @ @ @ @ changed quite a bit in the AFC : Going into the week , the Steelers had a 40 percent chance at it ; after Pittsburgh lost to Buffalo on Sunday , that ’ s down to 5 percent , with the Chiefs at 95 percent .
Were any of you surprised at how the Steelers played Sunday ?
joshua.hermsmeyer : Honestly , I was a little surprised .
I knew they were not as good as their record , but in the postgame comments , Ben Roethlisberger was saying things like “ we @ @ @ @ @ @ @ bringing up retirement .
neil : The Steelers seem totally out of gas after this bizarre chaotic stretch they ’ ve had .
( And to Josh ’ s point , they also were probably never as good as 11-0 made them seem . )
Salfino : The Steelers are not good .
Their defense also lost an impact pass rusher for the year in Bud Dupree .
I think we have to at least address the narrative that COVID-19 has beaten the Steelers ( three games in 12 days ) — even @ @ @ @ @ @ @ : It couldn ’ t have helped .
Rest days matter — we even have that effect baked into our prediction model .
Salfino : Pittsburgh ’ s offense is a mess .
Roethlisberger is a shadow of his former self — and has been all year , really .
And they are putting more on Roethlisberger ’ s old shoulders because they have no running game whatsoever .
neil : This has kind of reverted into the Steelers we were expecting going into the season : strong defense , meh passing attack @ @ @ @ @ @ @ even brought up on the broadcast that the Steelers refuse to run play-action , which is a massive easy button for most other teams .
Why Ben is so against it , I have no idea , but the Steelers remain last in the league in play-action percentage .
Salfino : We thought they had great receivers , but maybe not .
Diontae Johnson has had all kinds of problems with dropping the ball .
As for play-action , I think it ’ s because they don ’ t like to do it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ t like turning his back to the pass rush under center .
neil : Btw , we should also give credit to the Bills for that win !
Yes , it was at home , but traditionally it ’ s not often you see Buffalo come out and get a relatively decisive win over a top AFC team in prime time .
Salfino : Josh Allen may not be the MVP , but he ’ s playing at a legit Pro Bowl level .
He ’ s the argument for drafting traits @ @ @ @ @ @ @ And Stefon Diggs , man .
What a game he had .
neil : He ’ s been amazing .
Already at 100 catches and 1,167 yards .
sara.ziegler : A game like that is not easy for a Vikings fan to watch … Salfino : Diggs has to be one of the best offseason acquisitions in NFL history .
joshua.hermsmeyer : I really enjoy that both teams involved in that trade are thriving .
The Vikings can ’ t be unhappy with Justin Jefferson , and Diggs unlocked this Bills passing offense @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the Vikings are thriving .
joshua.hermsmeyer : Yeah , I meant in regards to the trade , haha .
I love Jefferson , though — and his touchdown dances .
Salfino : Just a quick , weird note about the Vikings and how Zimmer-ball is not working : joshua.hermsmeyer : I ’ m not sure what to do with this information , so I will ignore it .
Back to the Steelers , I never thought they would go undefeated given their schedule — facing the Bills , Colts and Browns in three @ @ @ @ @ @ @ what do we make of their chances once the playoffs roll around ?
joshua.hermsmeyer : One and done ?
neil : Now watch them win it all .
joshua.hermsmeyer : They don ’ t look like a team that will make noise in the playoffs .
I ’ m not sure they ever scared anyone , except for their defensive line .
neil : Yeah , in all seriousness , their title odds are suddenly not so special .
The Buffalo loss alone cut their Super Bowl probability in half .
( Between @ @ @ @ @ @ @ fact that they are kind of exposed as not as good as maybe we thought . )
Salfino : I will eat a bug if the Steelers make it to the Super Bowl .
joshua.hermsmeyer : Mike , your bold predictions have not gone so well lately .
I am now rooting for the Steelers !
Salfino : There have been no bug bets lost , Josh .
neil : They can ’ t ratio a Slack chat !
( Or can they ? )
sara.ziegler : I was told my eyes would @ @ @ @ @ @ @ yet… Salfino : I did my mea culpa on Hurts .
joshua.hermsmeyer : I saw it .
It was solid .
sara.ziegler : We have to give you a LITTLE grief .
Salfino : I honestly had no idea that the Eagles pass blocking was graded as good .
That ’ s on me .
I assumed their line was a mess with all those sacks .
Salfino : Yes !
I said that .
Like 60-40 though .
“ Sacks are a QB stat ” could be on my tombstone , and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ myself .
How can I expect anyone else to ?
OK , so , with only three games left , we have a pretty good idea of the playoff picture , save for a little jostling over the last spots .
Depending on the outcome of the Ravens-Browns game tonight , the Miami Dolphins are in position for the No .
7 seed in the AFC , while the Arizona Cardinals are currently holding the NFC ’ s No .
7 .
Which teams currently out of the playoff picture do you think @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ?
Salfino : It seems like the NFC is pretty much locked save for the seeding .
Right , Neil ?
neil : Kind of … but we still give the Vikings and Bears 20 percent each to make it , and of course the Giants and Eagles are outside the cut line now but could make it via winning the dreadful NFC East .
The Cardinals are only a little better than a coin flip ( 54 percent ) to make it .
Overall , I think the Ravens are the best @ @ @ @ @ @ @ playoffs .
joshua.hermsmeyer : The Ravens are favored to make the playoffs over Miami in our model , 63-33 percent .
And if Baltimore beats Cleveland tonight , it jumps to 88-26 percent .
So I agree with Neil .
Salfino : It has to be the Ravens .
They ’ re the favorites once we count the absentee ballots .
sara.ziegler : A lot hinges on tonight ’ s game , though !
The Ravens ’ chances fall to 37 percent if they lose .
Salfino : I see this game as @ @ @ @ @ @ @ like the way Lamar Jackson is playing at all .
The Ravens have a vastly better point differential than the Browns .
They ’ ve outscored opponents by 85 points , while the Browns have a -15 differential .
Yet Cleveland is 9-3 and Baltimore is 7-5 .
Salfino : The Browns finally had their head above water in point differential and then let the Titans pile it on in garbage time in Week 13. sara.ziegler : I did see a new Progressive commercial for Baker Mayfield this weekend ( maybe just new @ @ @ @ @ @ @ maybe that ’ s the good-luck charm he needed .
neil : It ’ s time for him to move aside and let a fresher Oklahoma QB take over as pitchman .
Hello , Jalen Hurts !
Salfino : Murray is Tebowing now in commercials .

The Saints And Steelers Hit A Rut At The Worst Time
sara.ziegler (Sara Ziegler, sports editor): Week 14 of the NFL season is just about in the books, with only one game outstanding, for a change. This week, we saw a one-handed interception that doubled as one of the best catches of the year, a kicker for a certain NFC North team miss four (4!) kicks, and maybe the worst game management in the history of the NFL (in a game the offending Chargers actually won).
But let’s focus on two teams that, just two weeks ago, were in the driver’s seats for first-round byes but now are on the outside looking in: the New Orleans Saints and the Pittsburgh Steelers.
Let’s start with the Saints. They should get Drew Brees back soon, but did they go to the well one too many times with Taysom Hill?
neil (Neil Paine, senior sportswriter): I wasn’t surprised this happened eventually … although maybe I was a little surprised it happened against the Eagles, with Jalen Hurts making his first career start.
joshua.hermsmeyer (Josh Hermsmeyer, NFL analyst): It was appropriate that Hill lose to another QB who ended up winning with his legs more than his arm. For the symmetry of the thing. And Taysom flipped the script and ended up passing for 291 yards and two touchdowns!
Salfino (Michael Salfino, FiveThirtyEight contributor): I know they were shut out in the first half, but I thought Hill was fine — not good but not bad. His Total Quarterback Rating was actually good. I thought the real problem for the Saints was that their red-hot defense suddenly had no answers for the running of Hurts.
neil: Taysom outdueled Matt Ryan twice but was outplayed by Hurts (according to our QB Elo metric, at least). Go figure.
Salfino: Hill’s fumble was his worst play.
sara.ziegler: I thought the Eagles would falter at the end of that game, with the pressure on, but they held it together nicely.
neil: I had flashbacks to another blown 17-0 lead by Philly this year — aka the last time they looked truly promising.
sara.ziegler: What do we think of Hurts? Is he the answer for Philly?
Salfino: Hurts was great. I thought the Saints were going to shut down the run and force him to play quarterback from inside the pocket. But instead, he ran wild. It’s interesting that the Eagles have a record five QBs now in the Super Bowl era to rush for at least 100 yards in a game. They are the kings of running QBs.
Also note that Hurts wasn’t sacked at all, and look at all the sacks for Carson Wentz this year — 50 in 12 games! That’s with the Eagles ranked 10th on the season in Pass Block Win Rate.
joshua.hermsmeyer: Yes, I think Hurts is an upgrade over Wentz. According to one of those ridiculously overspecified filters on Pro-Football-Reference.com, among players with at least 60 rushing yards and one passing TD in their first career start, Hurts had the most yards rushing!
Salfino: Josh, what does the front office do now with Wentz? Is Wentz too big to fail?
joshua.hermsmeyer: Mike, I think you hold on to both QBs for now. With Wentz’s contract, you probably can’t get enough in a trade to make it worthwhile, and having a capable backup behind a running QB is smart.
neil: I thought this spin was funny on Sunday morning. “We still believe in him! This Adam Schefter report isn’t at all intended to salvage whatever trade value he has left!”
Salfino: It’s either keep him or eat $60 million in dead cap, I thought.
neil: There are ways they could trade him and make the cap penalty less painful, but it’s still a big hit.
joshua.hermsmeyer: Also, I would simply point to Nick Foles and say, “Trust in fate.” Now go get ’em, Carson!
neil: The Hollywood ending to this is that the Eagles win the NFC East, Wentz has to come in for Hurts at some point, and he proves the doubters wrong on a Super Bowl run.
(Note: This has no chance of happening.)
sara.ziegler: 🤣
Salfino: What are the NFC East playoff odds now, Neil?
neil: The Eagles have an 11 percent chance, according to our model. The Washington Football Team is at 73 percent; the New York Giants are at 15 percent.
Not a great day for the Giants on Sunday, btw.
Salfino: The model doesn’t know that Dwayne Haskins is starting again for Washington, though.
neil: It actually does!
Salfino: Washington needs a game manager, IMO. Haskins is decidedly not that.
joshua.hermsmeyer: Haskins could be that. I believe his strength is as a field processor, reading the defense. He just has not shown that well in the NFL so far.
neil: Washington is in the driver’s seat now, although they do need to finish a game clear of the Giants to avoid a tiebreaker (their two head-to-head losses vs. Da G Men).
Salfino: My favorite stat is that Daniel Jones is 2-17 in his last 19 starts against non-WFT.
sara.ziegler: I like that Hurts’s QB Elo rating is already higher than that of Jones … and Haskins … and Wentz.
neil: The model loved his game Sunday. The Saints D had been very good against opposing QBs all season, but Hurts was reasonably efficient passing against them — and he added 106 rushing yards.
sara.ziegler: So the Eagles have a little more life now, but what about what that game did to the Saints’ playoff situation? They’ll have a much tougher time getting the first-round bye now.
joshua.hermsmeyer: This is where we need Steve Kornacki.
neil: WE HAVE KORNACKI AT HOME.
joshua.hermsmeyer: lol
Salfino: I have a hard time valuing the No. 1 seed this year relative to prior years. And going without it has certainly been overcome before. I think the Saints are clearly a better team than the Packers, no matter where they play. I think the Rams are better than the Packers, too.
joshua.hermsmeyer: I believe the consensus is the bye is even more valuable this season.
neil: Oh, absolutely. One fewer playoff opponent to face? Yes, please.
Salfino: Because only one team gets it?
neil: Right, everyone else has to play that round.
The model does give the Packers the edge for the NFC bye, 59 percent to 33 percent (the Rams and Seahawks also still have slim odds), and it comes down to the remaining schedule. The Saints still have to face scary Kansas City and half-decent Minnesota, along with a Carolina game on the road. Green Bay gets Carolina at home and faces Tennessee (good team, but at home) and the mediocre Bears.
joshua.hermsmeyer: The Saints-Chiefs game Sunday will be a great one. If New Orleans wins, we give them both about the same odds to win the Super Bowl.
neil: And Brees might play? But we don’t know.
sara.ziegler: Yeah, we need Brees for that game.
Salfino: The old Brees. Not the Brees who is old.
sara.ziegler: LOL
neil: Brees has still soundly outplayed Hill this year, for what it’s worth.
sara.ziegler: So the first-round bye situation also changed quite a bit in the AFC: Going into the week, the Steelers had a 40 percent chance at it; after Pittsburgh lost to Buffalo on Sunday, that’s down to 5 percent, with the Chiefs at 95 percent.
Were any of you surprised at how the Steelers played Sunday?
joshua.hermsmeyer: Honestly, I was a little surprised. I knew they were not as good as their record, but in the postgame comments, Ben Roethlisberger was saying things like “we’re not very good” and bringing up retirement.
neil: The Steelers seem totally out of gas after this bizarre chaotic stretch they’ve had. (And to Josh’s point, they also were probably never as good as 11-0 made them seem.)
Salfino: The Steelers are not good. Their defense also lost an impact pass rusher for the year in Bud Dupree. I think we have to at least address the narrative that COVID-19 has beaten the Steelers (three games in 12 days) — even though I reject that narrative.
neil: It couldn’t have helped. Rest days matter — we even have that effect baked into our prediction model.
Salfino: Pittsburgh’s offense is a mess. Roethlisberger is a shadow of his former self — and has been all year, really.
And they are putting more on Roethlisberger’s old shoulders because they have no running game whatsoever.
neil: This has kind of reverted into the Steelers we were expecting going into the season: strong defense, meh passing attack, meh offense.
joshua.hermsmeyer: They even brought up on the broadcast that the Steelers refuse to run play-action, which is a massive easy button for most other teams. Why Ben is so against it, I have no idea, but the Steelers remain last in the league in play-action percentage.
Salfino: We thought they had great receivers, but maybe not. Diontae Johnson has had all kinds of problems with dropping the ball.
As for play-action, I think it’s because they don’t like to do it in the shotgun, and Ben doesn’t like turning his back to the pass rush under center.
neil: Btw, we should also give credit to the Bills for that win! Yes, it was at home, but traditionally it’s not often you see Buffalo come out and get a relatively decisive win over a top AFC team in prime time.
(In fact, the last time they had a marquee game matching that description, the Titans cleaned their clock.)
Salfino: Josh Allen may not be the MVP, but he’s playing at a legit Pro Bowl level. He’s the argument for drafting traits and coaching them up.
sara.ziegler: And Stefon Diggs, man. What a game he had.
neil: He’s been amazing. Already at 100 catches and 1,167 yards.
sara.ziegler: A game like that is not easy for a Vikings fan to watch …
Salfino: Diggs has to be one of the best offseason acquisitions in NFL history.
joshua.hermsmeyer: I really enjoy that both teams involved in that trade are thriving. The Vikings can’t be unhappy with Justin Jefferson, and Diggs unlocked this Bills passing offense.
neil: Yeah, Jefferson’s yardage numbers (1,078) are pretty similar to Diggs’s.
Salfino: Sara will disagree that the Vikings are thriving.
joshua.hermsmeyer: Yeah, I meant in regards to the trade, haha.
sara.ziegler: 😬
I love Jefferson, though — and his touchdown dances.
Salfino: Just a quick, weird note about the Vikings and how Zimmer-ball is not working:
The Vikings lose their 2nd game this season with at least 39 minutes of possession. No other team in the league has a single such loss on the year. — ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) December 13, 2020
neil: Wait, more ball control doesn’t automatically guarantee victory?
joshua.hermsmeyer: I’m not sure what to do with this information, so I will ignore it.
sara.ziegler: LOL
Back to the Steelers, I never thought they would go undefeated given their schedule — facing the Bills, Colts and Browns in three of their final four games. But what do we make of their chances once the playoffs roll around?
joshua.hermsmeyer: One and done?
Salfino: Stick a fork in the Steelers.
neil: Now watch them win it all.
joshua.hermsmeyer: They don’t look like a team that will make noise in the playoffs. I’m not sure they ever scared anyone, except for their defensive line.
neil: Yeah, in all seriousness, their title odds are suddenly not so special.
The Buffalo loss alone cut their Super Bowl probability in half. (Between its implications for the bye and the fact that they are kind of exposed as not as good as maybe we thought.)
Salfino: I will eat a bug if the Steelers make it to the Super Bowl.
joshua.hermsmeyer: Mike, your bold predictions have not gone so well lately. I am now rooting for the Steelers!
Salfino: There have been no bug bets lost, Josh.
neil: They can’t ratio a Slack chat! (Or can they?)
sara.ziegler: I was told my eyes would bleed during the Eagles game, and yet…
Salfino: I did my mea culpa on Hurts.
joshua.hermsmeyer: I saw it. It was solid.
sara.ziegler: We have to give you a LITTLE grief.
Salfino: I honestly had no idea that the Eagles pass blocking was graded as good. That’s on me. I assumed their line was a mess with all those sacks.
joshua.hermsmeyer: Sacks are a QB stat!
neil: ^^^ this
Salfino: Yes! I said that. Like 60-40 though.
“Sacks are a QB stat” could be on my tombstone, and yet I don’t listen to myself. How can I expect anyone else to?
sara.ziegler: Hahaha
OK, so, with only three games left, we have a pretty good idea of the playoff picture, save for a little jostling over the last spots. Depending on the outcome of the Ravens-Browns game tonight, the Miami Dolphins are in position for the No. 7 seed in the AFC, while the Arizona Cardinals are currently holding the NFC’s No. 7. Which teams currently out of the playoff picture do you think have the best chance to make it?
Salfino: It seems like the NFC is pretty much locked save for the seeding. Right, Neil?
neil: Kind of … but we still give the Vikings and Bears 20 percent each to make it, and of course the Giants and Eagles are outside the cut line now but could make it via winning the dreadful NFC East. The Cardinals are only a little better than a coin flip (54 percent) to make it.
Overall, I think the Ravens are the best pick to leapfrog their way into the playoffs.
joshua.hermsmeyer: The Ravens are favored to make the playoffs over Miami in our model, 63-33 percent. And if Baltimore beats Cleveland tonight, it jumps to 88-26 percent. So I agree with Neil.
Salfino: It has to be the Ravens. They’re the favorites once we count the absentee ballots.
sara.ziegler: A lot hinges on tonight’s game, though! The Ravens’ chances fall to 37 percent if they lose.
joshua.hermsmeyer: Massive game for the Ravens, Sara.
Salfino: I see this game as a tossup. I don’t like the way Lamar Jackson is playing at all.
neil: We’ll learn a lot about both teams, frankly.
The Ravens have a vastly better point differential than the Browns. They’ve outscored opponents by 85 points, while the Browns have a -15 differential. Yet Cleveland is 9-3 and Baltimore is 7-5.
Salfino: The Browns finally had their head above water in point differential and then let the Titans pile it on in garbage time in Week 13.
sara.ziegler: I did see a new Progressive commercial for Baker Mayfield this weekend (maybe just new to me, LOL), so maybe that’s the good-luck charm he needed.
neil: It’s time for him to move aside and let a fresher Oklahoma QB take over as pitchman. Hello, Jalen Hurts!
sara.ziegler: That’s Kyler Murray erasure, Neil.
neil: Lol
Salfino: Murray is Tebowing now in commercials.
Check out our latest NFL predictions.


fivethirthyeight--2020-12-14--How Far Can Ja Morant Take The Resurgent Memphis Grizzlies?

Though the Memphis Grizzlies finished five games below .500 last season , they still exceeded expectations in Year One of the Ja Morant experience .
In a season-long illustration of the team ’ s budding identity , the Grizzlies learned early lessons on how far Morant ’ s drive can take them .
At only 21 years old , the second-year guard out of Murray State has already established himself as the franchise ’ s engine , driving it toward the next period of sustained success after the end of the Grit and Grind era .
The reigning Rookie of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ) as the only Grizzlies to take home that honor , with Morant setting the franchise rookie record in assists ( 488 ) en route to more triple-doubles ( 2 ) than all other first-year Grizzlies combined .
Prior to the NBA ’ s 2020 restart in July , Memphis legend Zach Randolph explained why Morant is the centerpiece of Grizzlies basketball .
“ He ’ s just like me , ” the franchise ’ s third all-time leading scorer ( 9,261 ) told Bleacher Report .
“ Blue-collar player .
Honest .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ The people of Memphis see that Ja is just like them , too : a hard worker , where nothing ’ s been given to him.
” [ The Thunder Have Been Busier This Offseason Than Any Team In NBA History ] Morant ’ s propensity to play bigger than his listed size of 6-foot-3 and 174 pounds made him an immediate fit in Memphis .
When attacking the rim , Morant ’ s merger of relentlessness and precision kept defenses on their heels , allowing him to rack up 10.7 interior points @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Stats .
The guard became just the eighth rookie since 2000 to average double-figure points in the paint .
Among rookie guards in that span , Morant ’ s mark ranked ahead of Dwyane Wade ( 9.7 ) , Derrick Rose ( 8.0 ) and Russell Westbrook ( 6.7 ) , who each earned All-NBA honors by their third season in the pros .
If Morant ’ s rookie year illustrated anything , it ’ s that neither he nor Memphis will be intimidated into backing off the attack .
Last season , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ points in the paint .
The last time they ranked first in interior scoring was in 2014-15 , when they made it as far as the Western Conference semifinals before losing to the eventual champion Golden State Warriors .
To revisit and venture beyond those heights , the Grizzlies will likely need to follow Morant ’ s lead on and off the court .
Before his rookie season resumed , Morant reportedly added a dozen pounds of muscle to his frame through workouts with his father , Tee , who restored the “ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s childhood in South Carolina to prepare for the NBA bubble .
“ I was just taking the time to get better and focus on what I needed to get better at , ” the younger Morant told The Undefeated .
“ Strength .
I put on some weight during that time .
Honestly , it wasn ’ t difficult .
I just used that part to get better .
I love the grind.
” Though preparing for the bubble wasn ’ t difficult for Morant , the bubble itself was tough on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ restart with a 3.5-game lead over the Trail Blazers , Pelicans and Kings for the Western Conference ’ s eighth seed , but they went 2-7 in the bubble , including a playoff play-in loss to Portland .
Did their youth do in the Grizz ?
They sported the NBA ’ s second-youngest lineup when weighted by playing time , according to the Elias Sports Bureau , but among the five squads with an average age under 25 , Memphis recorded by far the highest win percentage .
The team ’ s second-best @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Jackson Jr. — whose lingering knee problems will keep him off the court at the season ’ s opening — is 21 , a month younger than Morant .
Dillon Brooks and Brandon Clarke are both 24 , and Jonas Valančiūnas is the old man among returning starters at 28 .
Though young , these Grizzlies have a keen sense of direction that is strengthened by their centerpiece ’ s willingness to attack at any given moment .
According to Second Spectrum , Morant finished his rookie season trailing only James Harden and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 1,097 ) , helping Memphis leap to fifth in the league with 40.6 per game after ranking 22nd the season prior .
[ Christian Wood Might Be The Rockets ’ Silver Lining ] Those drives can pay off in many ways .
For evidence , look no further than the 277 assist opportunities he created via kickout , per Second Spectrum .
That total ranked eighth-most in the NBA , placing the reigning Rookie of the Year ahead of All-NBA selections Harden , Chris Paul and Nikola Jokić , three of the most @ @ @ @ @ @ @ has a penchant for giving teammates wide-open looks .
His teammates shot 42.5 percent on catch-and-shoot 3-pointers via Morant kickout , according to Second Spectrum — the ninth-highest rate among the 68 passers who created at least 100 such 3-point attempts .
After accepting his Rookie of the Year award in September , Morant explained to Grind City Media the finer points of Grizzlies basketball .
“ It ’ s just us .
First , it starts on the defensive end for us .
Just going out there and fighting and competing , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ fuel our offense , so we were getting stops , and that meant we were able to get out and run , and play in transition , where I feel like we were very dangerous , especially being young .
We have a lot of guys that can run the floor.
” The Grizzlies played at a pace of 103.3 possessions per 48 minutes last season , sixth-highest in the league , per NBA Advanced Stats .
Though Memphis played marginally faster with Morant on the bench , the squad still leapt from @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in the season preceding his arrival .
Last season marked the Grizzlies ’ first with a top-10 pace in over a decade , and that energy was kept up on both sides of the ball .
Despite ranking only 14th in defensive efficiency , Memphis had one of the league ’ s most aggressive units in 2019-20 .
According to NBA Advanced Stats , the Grizzlies were the only squad to rank within the top five in both the rate of defensive loose balls recovered and contested shots per game , and that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in both the season prior .
While other teams in the Western Conference are breaking the bank to end their own playoff droughts , Memphis seems content to let its young players grow .
Per Spotrac , Morant , Brooks and Clarke are each signed through 2023 , with Jackson Jr. due for an extension in two years .
In the offseason , Memphis extended reserve guard De ’ Anthony Melton ; used their only 2020 draft pick on Robert Woodard II ( 40th overall ) , whom they traded to Sacramento for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ; and made a trade that brought them the No .
30 pick , Desmond Bane , and Portland forward Mario Hezonja .
Though their approach was conservative , it shouldn ’ t be seen as timid .
If anything , given the close call with the playoffs last season , the franchise ’ s decision to stand pat confirms its trust in its maestro to run the show .
[ How An Undrafted Rookie Stopped James Harden In The Playoffs ] Whether diming or dunking , Morant already ranks among the league @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in his acumen and athleticism .
His team-high 84 points in clutch-time situations ranked ahead of LeBron James , Jimmy Butler and Jamal Murray while nearly doubling the total of the next-closest rookie , according to NBA Advanced Stats .
The Grizzlies appear to have their guy .
When accepting his Rookie of the Year award , as he does on the court , Morant couldn ’ t help but share the wealth with his squad .
“ Although my name is on this award , I ’ m sharing it with [ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in September .
“ I ’ m excited .
I think a healthy Grizz team can be very special .
I feel like we can make a lot of noise .
We have very talented guys who can do multiple things on the court.
” Despite his deference , if last season is any indication , the most promising avenue for this Grizzlies core rests in whatever direction Ja Morant ’ s drive takes them .

Though the Memphis Grizzlies finished five games below .500 last season, they still exceeded expectations in Year One of the Ja Morant experience. In a season-long illustration of the team’s budding identity, the Grizzlies learned early lessons on how far Morant’s drive can take them.
At only 21 years old, the second-year guard out of Murray State has already established himself as the franchise’s engine, driving it toward the next period of sustained success after the end of the Grit and Grind era. The reigning Rookie of the Year joined Pau Gasol (2002) as the only Grizzlies to take home that honor, with Morant setting the franchise rookie record in assists (488) en route to more triple-doubles (2) than all other first-year Grizzlies combined.
Who’s the most chaotic fictional football coach? | FiveThirtyEight
Prior to the NBA’s 2020 restart in July, Memphis legend Zach Randolph explained why Morant is the centerpiece of Grizzlies basketball.
“He’s just like me,” the franchise’s third all-time leading scorer (9,261) told Bleacher Report. “Blue-collar player. Honest. Humble. Heart like a giant. The people of Memphis see that Ja is just like them, too: a hard worker, where nothing’s been given to him.”
[The Thunder Have Been Busier This Offseason Than Any Team In NBA History]
Morant’s propensity to play bigger than his listed size of 6-foot-3 and 174 pounds made him an immediate fit in Memphis. When attacking the rim, Morant’s merger of relentlessness and precision kept defenses on their heels, allowing him to rack up 10.7 interior points per game, according to NBA Advanced Stats. The guard became just the eighth rookie since 2000 to average double-figure points in the paint.
Ja Morant joined much taller company in the paint NBA rookies to average double-figure points in the paint, since 2000 Player Season Rookie of the Year? Height PPG Zion Williamson 2019-20 6 feet, 6 inches 16.8 Blake Griffin 2010-11 ✓ 6 feet, 9 inches 13.8 Ben Simmons 2017-18 ✓ 6 feet, 10 inches 12.7 Jahlil Okafor 2015-16 6 feet, 10 inches 12.5 Deandre Ayton 2018-19 6 feet, 11 inches 11.8 Pau Gasol 2001-02 ✓ 7 feet 11.8 Tyreke Evans 2009-10 ✓ 6 feet, 6 inches 11.2 Ja Morant 2019-20 ✓ 6 feet, 3 inches 10.7 Sources: NBA Advanced Stats, Basketball-Reference.com
Among rookie guards in that span, Morant’s mark ranked ahead of Dwyane Wade (9.7), Derrick Rose (8.0) and Russell Westbrook (6.7), who each earned All-NBA honors by their third season in the pros.
If Morant’s rookie year illustrated anything, it’s that neither he nor Memphis will be intimidated into backing off the attack. Last season, the Grizzlies led the NBA with 55.9 points in the paint. The last time they ranked first in interior scoring was in 2014-15, when they made it as far as the Western Conference semifinals before losing to the eventual champion Golden State Warriors.
To revisit and venture beyond those heights, the Grizzlies will likely need to follow Morant’s lead on and off the court. Before his rookie season resumed, Morant reportedly added a dozen pounds of muscle to his frame through workouts with his father, Tee, who restored the “TTG camp” from his son’s childhood in South Carolina to prepare for the NBA bubble.
“I was just taking the time to get better and focus on what I needed to get better at,” the younger Morant told The Undefeated. “Strength. I put on some weight during that time. Honestly, it wasn’t difficult. I just used that part to get better. I love the grind.”
Though preparing for the bubble wasn’t difficult for Morant, the bubble itself was tough on Memphis. The Grizzlies entered the NBA restart with a 3.5-game lead over the Trail Blazers, Pelicans and Kings for the Western Conference’s eighth seed, but they went 2-7 in the bubble, including a playoff play-in loss to Portland.
Did their youth do in the Grizz? They sported the NBA’s second-youngest lineup when weighted by playing time, according to the Elias Sports Bureau, but among the five squads with an average age under 25, Memphis recorded by far the highest win percentage.
The best of the youngest NBA rosters with an average age under 25 after weighting by playing time during the 2019-20 NBA season, by team winning percentage Team Avg. age Win Pct. Memphis Grizzlies 24.5 0.466 Charlotte Hornets 24.9 0.354 Chicago Bulls 24.9 0.338 Atlanta Hawks 24.4 0.299 Golden State Warriors 24.9 0.231 Source: Elias Sports Bureau
The team’s second-best scorer in points per game, Jaren Jackson Jr. — whose lingering knee problems will keep him off the court at the season’s opening — is 21, a month younger than Morant. Dillon Brooks and Brandon Clarke are both 24, and Jonas Valančiūnas is the old man among returning starters at 28.
Though young, these Grizzlies have a keen sense of direction that is strengthened by their centerpiece’s willingness to attack at any given moment. According to Second Spectrum, Morant finished his rookie season trailing only James Harden and Luka Dončić in total direct drives (1,097), helping Memphis leap to fifth in the league with 40.6 per game after ranking 22nd the season prior.
[Christian Wood Might Be The Rockets’ Silver Lining]
Those drives can pay off in many ways. For evidence, look no further than the 277 assist opportunities he created via kickout, per Second Spectrum. That total ranked eighth-most in the NBA, placing the reigning Rookie of the Year ahead of All-NBA selections Harden, Chris Paul and Nikola Jokić, three of the most gifted passers in recent memory.
Ja creates for his teammates Players whose kickout passes led to their teammates making at least 100 catch-and-shoot 3-pointers, and the shooting percentage on those shots, 2019-20 Player Shots made FG % DeMar DeRozan 138 38.7% Russell Westbrook 130 34.3 LeBron James 126 36.7 Jimmy Butler 123 38.2 Giannis Antetokounmpo 119 36.6 Ben Simmons 118 35.0 Devin Booker 115 40.5 Luka Dončić 106 43.6 Ja Morant 102 42.5 Source: Second Spectrum
Morant has a penchant for giving teammates wide-open looks. His teammates shot 42.5 percent on catch-and-shoot 3-pointers via Morant kickout, according to Second Spectrum — the ninth-highest rate among the 68 passers who created at least 100 such 3-point attempts.
After accepting his Rookie of the Year award in September, Morant explained to Grind City Media the finer points of Grizzlies basketball.
“It’s just us. First, it starts on the defensive end for us. Just going out there and fighting and competing, playing together. We let our defense fuel our offense, so we were getting stops, and that meant we were able to get out and run, and play in transition, where I feel like we were very dangerous, especially being young. We have a lot of guys that can run the floor.”
The Grizzlies played at a pace of 103.3 possessions per 48 minutes last season, sixth-highest in the league, per NBA Advanced Stats. Though Memphis played marginally faster with Morant on the bench, the squad still leapt from having the slowest pace in the league in the season preceding his arrival. Last season marked the Grizzlies’ first with a top-10 pace in over a decade, and that energy was kept up on both sides of the ball.
Despite ranking only 14th in defensive efficiency, Memphis had one of the league’s most aggressive units in 2019-20. According to NBA Advanced Stats, the Grizzlies were the only squad to rank within the top five in both the rate of defensive loose balls recovered and contested shots per game, and that was after ranking outside the top 15 in both the season prior.
While other teams in the Western Conference are breaking the bank to end their own playoff droughts, Memphis seems content to let its young players grow. Per Spotrac, Morant, Brooks and Clarke are each signed through 2023, with Jackson Jr. due for an extension in two years. In the offseason, Memphis extended reserve guard De’Anthony Melton; used their only 2020 draft pick on Robert Woodard II (40th overall), whom they traded to Sacramento for No. 35 pick Xavier Tillman Sr.; and made a trade that brought them the No. 30 pick, Desmond Bane, and Portland forward Mario Hezonja. Though their approach was conservative, it shouldn’t be seen as timid. If anything, given the close call with the playoffs last season, the franchise’s decision to stand pat confirms its trust in its maestro to run the show.
[How An Undrafted Rookie Stopped James Harden In The Playoffs]
Whether diming or dunking, Morant already ranks among the league’s most gifted players, both in his acumen and athleticism. His team-high 84 points in clutch-time situations ranked ahead of LeBron James, Jimmy Butler and Jamal Murray while nearly doubling the total of the next-closest rookie, according to NBA Advanced Stats. The Grizzlies appear to have their guy.
When accepting his Rookie of the Year award, as he does on the court, Morant couldn’t help but share the wealth with his squad.
“Although my name is on this award, I’m sharing it with [my teammates],” he said in September. “I’m excited. I think a healthy Grizz team can be very special. I feel like we can make a lot of noise. We have very talented guys who can do multiple things on the court.”
Despite his deference, if last season is any indication, the most promising avenue for this Grizzlies core rests in whatever direction Ja Morant’s drive takes them.


fivethirthyeight--2020-12-15--Raphael Warnock’s Dog Ads Cut Against White Voters’ Stereotypes Of Black People

If he wins next month , Raphael Warnock may have his pet beagle to thank .
So far , Warnock , the Democratic candidate in one of Georgia ’ s two Senate runoff elections , has aired two ads featuring his dog .
In the first , he uses his cuddly canine to preempt negative GOP attacks against him — attacks that have tried to paint him as an ideological extremist and tie him to far-left Black activists .
In the second ad , the pooch plays an even more prominent role , with Warnock walking his dog through a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , while denouncing Republican Sen. Kelly Loeffler ’ s “ smear ads ” against him .
“ I think Georgians will see her ads for what they are — don ’ t you ?
” he asks as he throws the poop bag into the garbage .
The beagle barks in agreement and licks his owner ’ s face .
These ads have been praised as cute , humorous and clever .
And the two spots have gone viral , generating almost nine million views while Warnock ’ s dog–oriented tweets accumulated over @ @ @ @ @ @ @ November .
The campaign has even profited off the pooch by selling “ Puppies for Warnock ” merchandise .
But some close observers of race and politics have noted that there is much more here than just an adorable electoral campaign .
These ads , they argue , are carefully crafted attempts to neutralize racial stereotypes that work against Warnock in his bid to become Georgia ’ s first African American senator .
Hakeem Jefferson , a Stanford professor and FiveThirtyEight contributor , tweeted , “ This ad is doing a lot .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ cute , but it is also meant to deracialize Warnock with this cute ‘ white people friendly ’ doggy.
” Fordham University political scientist and MSNBC contributor Christina Greer similarly tweeted , “ This ad will be taught in Race Politics classes for years to come…it is doing A LOT of silent heavy lifting.
” And The New York Times ’ s Jamelle Bouie concurred , tweeting in response to Greer ’ s comments , “ Yep .
The setting , Warnock ’ s outfit , even the dog breed all are sending @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Warnock ’ s pet beagle viewed as a “ white people doggy ” ?
And could his choice of pet have an effect on his electoral strategy ?
Well , for starters , there ’ s a large racial divide in dog ownership .
A 2006 Pew Research poll found that 45 percent of white Americans owned a dog compared to only 20 percent of African Americans .
And the way pet ownership is portrayed in popular culture further exacerbates that divide in the minds of the public .
In their classic study @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , “ Black Image in the White Mind , ” Robert Entman and Andrew Rojecki found no prime-time commercials containing African American pet owners .
“ According to the world of TV advertising , ” Entman and Rojecki surmised , “ Whites are the ones who occupy the realm of ideal humanity , of human warmth and connection , as symbolized occasionally by their love for their pets.
” That is one reason Warnock ’ s ads are so effective : They directly push back against this stereotype , showing an affectionate Black @ @ @ @ @ @ @ puppies .
Yet , as the tweets above suggest , the breed of Warnock ’ s dog is also doing a lot of work to counteract negative racial stereotypes of dog ownership .
Take what my University of California Irvine colleague Mary McThomas and I ’ ve found in our research on dog ownership : When we asked people which dog breeds they thought white and Black people were more likely to own , the majority guessed that Black people owned rottweilers and pit bulls while white people owned golden retrievers , collies @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s hardly a coincidence , either , that the two dog breeds stereotyped as Black-owned are also the two breeds that evoke the most fear from the public .
Over 40 percent of respondents in a 2018 Lucid survey we conducted said that “ scary ” described pit bulls and rottweilers “ extremely ” or “ very well ” ( 46 and 41 percent , respectively ) .
But only about 10 percent said the same thing about golden retrievers , collies , Dalmatians and Labradors .
( These four breeds were all @ @ @ @ @ @ @ favorably than rottweilers and pit bulls in our 2020 surveys as well . )
Unfortunately , we did not specifically ask about beagles in our surveys , but the commentary on Warnock ’ s ads argues that beagles fit squarely among the adored and approachable dog breeds that Americans generally associate with white people .
That ’ s why the breed of Warnock ’ s dog is so important in how he ’ s pitching himself to voters .
As Jefferson also noted on Twitter , Warnock ’ s beagle can be thought @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ white-friendly ” message to voters , something like , “ How can I be the scary ( Black ) guy she ’ s depicting ” with a dog like that ?
Of course , it ’ s impossible to say whether this was the intent behind Warnock ’ s dog ads .
But political science research has shown that African American candidates often try to deploy deracialization strategies like this to protect themselves from widespread stereotypes about Black political leadership — stereotypes that tend to paint African American politicians as radical extremists @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Black interests at the expense of white people .
This is arguably all the more important in a campaign where Republicans have explicitly tried to tie Warnock to Black radicalism — especially considering this is a Southern state where white voters are still overwhelmingly Republican .
( Stacey Abrams won only a quarter of the white vote in her losing 2018 bid to become Georgia ’ s first African American governor . )
It ’ s true that Georgia has since emerged as a swing state , voting for a Democrat for president @ @ @ @ @ @ @ but it ’ s unclear how much of that had to do with Trump and how much it may have been a sign of a more permanent shift in Georgia ’ s politics .
Warnock ’ s dog ads may well be thought of as a dog whistle to voters who have lingering concerns about Black political leadership .

If he wins next month, Raphael Warnock may have his pet beagle to thank.
So far, Warnock, the Democratic candidate in one of Georgia’s two Senate runoff elections, has aired two ads featuring his dog. In the first, he uses his cuddly canine to preempt negative GOP attacks against him — attacks that have tried to paint him as an ideological extremist and tie him to far-left Black activists.
Get ready Georgia. The negative ads against us are coming. But that won’t stop us from fighting for a better future for Georgians and focusing on the issues that matter. pic.twitter.com/VN0YIA02MG — Reverend Raphael Warnock (@ReverendWarnock) November 5, 2020
In the second ad, the pooch plays an even more prominent role, with Warnock walking his dog through a suburban neighborhood, poop bag in hand, while denouncing Republican Sen. Kelly Loeffler’s “smear ads” against him.
[Related: Latest Polls Of The Georgia Senate Runoff Elections]
“I think Georgians will see her ads for what they are — don’t you?” he asks as he throws the poop bag into the garbage. The beagle barks in agreement and licks his owner’s face.
I told you the smear ads were coming, but Georgians will see Sen. @Kloeffler’s ads for what they are. pic.twitter.com/0sgU8ndC63 — Reverend Raphael Warnock (@ReverendWarnock) November 24, 2020
These ads have been praised as cute, humorous and clever. And the two spots have gone viral, generating almost nine million views while Warnock’s dog–oriented tweets accumulated over half a million likes on Twitter in November. The campaign has even profited off the pooch by selling “Puppies for Warnock” merchandise.
But some close observers of race and politics have noted that there is much more here than just an adorable electoral campaign. These ads, they argue, are carefully crafted attempts to neutralize racial stereotypes that work against Warnock in his bid to become Georgia’s first African American senator.
Will Georgia stay blue? | FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast
Hakeem Jefferson, a Stanford professor and FiveThirtyEight contributor, tweeted, “This ad is doing a lot. It’s obv[iously] cute, but it is also meant to deracialize Warnock with this cute ‘white people friendly’ doggy.” Fordham University political scientist and MSNBC contributor Christina Greer similarly tweeted, “This ad will be taught in Race Politics classes for years to come…it is doing A LOT of silent heavy lifting.” And The New York Times’s Jamelle Bouie concurred, tweeting in response to Greer’s comments, “Yep. The setting, Warnock’s outfit, even the dog breed all are sending a specific message.”
But why is Warnock’s pet beagle viewed as a “white people doggy”? And could his choice of pet have an effect on his electoral strategy?
Well, for starters, there’s a large racial divide in dog ownership. A 2006 Pew Research poll found that 45 percent of white Americans owned a dog compared to only 20 percent of African Americans. And the way pet ownership is portrayed in popular culture further exacerbates that divide in the minds of the public. In their classic study of media and race in the 1990s, “Black Image in the White Mind,” Robert Entman and Andrew Rojecki found no prime-time commercials containing African American pet owners. “According to the world of TV advertising,” Entman and Rojecki surmised, “Whites are the ones who occupy the realm of ideal humanity, of human warmth and connection, as symbolized occasionally by their love for their pets.” That is one reason Warnock’s ads are so effective: They directly push back against this stereotype, showing an affectionate Black dog owner who explicitly says he loves puppies.
[Related: Warnock And Ossoff Are Testing A New Strategy For Democrats In The South]
Yet, as the tweets above suggest, the breed of Warnock’s dog is also doing a lot of work to counteract negative racial stereotypes of dog ownership. Take what my University of California Irvine colleague Mary McThomas and I’ve found in our research on dog ownership: When we asked people which dog breeds they thought white and Black people were more likely to own, the majority guessed that Black people owned rottweilers and pit bulls while white people owned golden retrievers, collies, Labradors and Dalmatians.
It’s hardly a coincidence, either, that the two dog breeds stereotyped as Black-owned are also the two breeds that evoke the most fear from the public. Over 40 percent of respondents in a 2018 Lucid survey we conducted said that “scary” described pit bulls and rottweilers “extremely” or “very well” (46 and 41 percent, respectively). But only about 10 percent said the same thing about golden retrievers, collies, Dalmatians and Labradors. (These four breeds were all rated at least 15 percentage points more favorably than rottweilers and pit bulls in our 2020 surveys as well.)
Unfortunately, we did not specifically ask about beagles in our surveys, but the commentary on Warnock’s ads argues that beagles fit squarely among the adored and approachable dog breeds that Americans generally associate with white people. That’s why the breed of Warnock’s dog is so important in how he’s pitching himself to voters. As Jefferson also noted on Twitter, Warnock’s beagle can be thought of as trying to communicate a specific “white-friendly” message to voters, something like, “How can I be the scary (Black) guy she’s depicting” with a dog like that?
[Split-Ticket Voters Are A Small Group, But They Could Decide The Georgia Runoffs]
Of course, it’s impossible to say whether this was the intent behind Warnock’s dog ads. But political science research has shown that African American candidates often try to deploy deracialization strategies like this to protect themselves from widespread stereotypes about Black political leadership — stereotypes that tend to paint African American politicians as radical extremists who govern exclusively for the benefit of Black interests at the expense of white people.
This is arguably all the more important in a campaign where Republicans have explicitly tried to tie Warnock to Black radicalism — especially considering this is a Southern state where white voters are still overwhelmingly Republican. (Stacey Abrams won only a quarter of the white vote in her losing 2018 bid to become Georgia’s first African American governor.) It’s true that Georgia has since emerged as a swing state, voting for a Democrat for president for the first time since 1992, but it’s unclear how much of that had to do with Trump and how much it may have been a sign of a more permanent shift in Georgia’s politics. Warnock’s dog ads may well be thought of as a dog whistle to voters who have lingering concerns about Black political leadership.
What the COVID-19 vaccine means for political battles to come


fivethirthyeight--2020-12-15--What The COVID-19 Vaccine Means For The Political Battles To Come

In this episode of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast , the crew discusses the challenges presented by both the ongoing pandemic @ @ @ @ @ continued attempts to overturn the election results .

In this episode of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the crew discusses the challenges presented by both the ongoing pandemic and President Trump’s continued attempts to overturn the election results.
[Related: Why A Big Bloc of Americans Is Wary Of The COVID-19 Vaccine — Even As Experts Hope To See Widespread Immunization]
Which celebrity would Dr. Anthony Fauci like to publicly get the vaccine?