fivethirthyeight--2020-12-02--There Wasn’t That Much Split-Ticket Voting In 2020

The narrative of the 2020 election is that Joe Biden did pretty well … but down-ballot Democrats , not so much .
And while this is true if you look simply at the results — Republicans defended most of their vulnerable Senate seats and gained several seats in the House — there wasn ’ t actually as much split-ticket voting as you might think .
For decades now , how a person votes for president has become a better and better predictor of how she votes in other races .
As we wrote after the 2018 midterms , the correlation @ @ @ @ @ @ @ base partisanship and how it voted for Senate or House that year was extremely strong .
And the same looks like it was true in 2020 as well .
The chart below shows the difference between Biden ’ s vote share and the Democratic Senate candidate ’ s vote share in the 33 states that held Senate elections contested by both major parties in 2020 .
And as you can see , people largely voted the same way for both president and Senate .
In all but three states , the Democratic Senate @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 5 percentage points of Biden ’ s .
( Similarly , Republican Senate candidates ’ vote shares were within 5 points of President Trump ’ s in all but three states . )
The Democratic Senate candidate who most outperformed Biden was Sen. Jack Reed of Rhode Island , who received 66.6 percent of the vote — 7.2 points better than Biden .
But this won ’ t surprise anyone familiar with Rhode Island politics .
An Army veteran and political moderate , Reed has always enjoyed significant crossover support , winning each @ @ @ @ @ @ @ than 70 percent of the vote .
However , it is perhaps a sign of these highly polarized times that Reed ’ s 2020 vote share was the lowest since he was first elected in 1996 .
( And it might have been even lower if his GOP opponent hadn ’ t been disavowed by the Rhode Island Republican Party after it learned of his 2019 arrest on charges of domestic assault . )
On the other end of the spectrum , the Democratic Senate candidate who most underperformed Biden was Chris Janicek @ @ @ @ @ @ @ percent of the vote even as Biden received 39.3 percent .
The fact that Janicek underperformed Biden isn ’ t that surprising , though , as he was also a seriously flawed candidate .
The Nebraska Democratic Party asked Janicek to drop out after he made sexual comments about one of his campaign staffers in a group text message and ultimately endorsed a write-in candidate instead of him .
However , Republican Sen. Ben Sasse was also a strong incumbent ( he outperformed Trump by more than any Senate Republican in the country @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s occasional willingness to speak out against Trump may have helped him appeal to Trump-skeptical Republicans in the state .
The last state with a significant amount of split-ticket voting was Maine .
Democrat Sara Gideon did 10.6 points worse than Biden , while Republican Sen. Susan Collins did 7.1 points better than Trump .
Because Maine is a fairly competitive state , that was enough for Collins to win the state even though Trump lost it .
That gives Maine a unique distinction : It is the only state so far @ @ @ @ @ @ @ same party for president and Senate , something that used to be fairly common .
But this year , Collins was the only candidate whose bipartisan bona fides ( she voted against Trump more often than any other Republican senator , most recently her vote against now-Supreme Court Justice Amy Coney Barrett ) were strong enough to pull the trick .
All other Senate races hewed quite close to presidential results — and because this year ’ s Senate races took place largely on Republican turf , that was a big blow to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Before Election Day , Democrats were hopeful that strong candidates like Steve Bullock , Jaime Harrison and Barbara Bollier could swim against the partisan tide and pull out wins in Montana , South Carolina and Kansas , respectively .
But for all the money they raised , for all of their theoretical crossover appeal , Bullock ran just 4.6 points ahead of Biden , Harrison just 0.8 points ahead and Bollier just 0.3 points ahead .
As a result , none came particularly close to winning their very red states .
To @ @ @ @ @ @ @ candidates also underperformed Biden in states where running slightly ahead of him might have been enough to flip a Senate seat or two .
Maine is certainly an obvious example , but this category also includes states like Texas , where Democratic Senate candidate M.J. Hegar ran 2.6 points behind the president-elect ( perhaps because her opponent , Sen. John Cornyn , was more temperamentally palatable to suburban swing voters than Trump was ) , and North Carolina , where Democrat Cal Cunningham ran 1.6 points behind ( perhaps due to his sexting @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Georgia with 49.5 percent of the vote , Democrat Jon Ossoff got just 47.9 percent in the regular Senate election , and Democrats in the special election combined for just 48.4 percent — problems Ossoff and Raphael Warnock will need to solve in next month ’ s runoffs .
There was even some Democratic dropoff in Senate races Democrats won , like Colorado and Michigan .
Democrat John Hickenlooper did 1.9 points worse than Biden in the former , and Sen. Gary Peters did 0.7 points worse than Biden in the latter .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ to the strength of the Republican candidates .
Like Cornyn , Sen. Cory Gardner of Colorado may simply have benefited from being a Republican not named Trump in a once-red state that has zoomed leftward over the last few years .
And in Michigan , John James was probably the GOP ’ s strongest recruit of the cycle ; in a year where Democrats were consistently winning the fundraising battle , he raised more money than Peters in four consecutive quarters .
Again , though , these differences are quite small ; only @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a vote for anyone but Democrats in the Senate .
And , it turns out , the same is true in the House .
Even though Democrats lost seats in the lower chamber , there were very few people who voted for opposite parties for president and House .
Our second chart shows the difference between Biden ’ s vote share and the Democratic share of the House popular vote in the 44 states where more than 85 percent of House seats were contested by both major parties .
Again , the lack @ @ @ @ @ @ @ way the dots bunch around the center line .
Indeed , the Democratic share of the House popular vote was within 5 percentage points of Biden ’ s vote share in every state .
And even though House Democrats did underperform Biden overall ( so far , they have received 50.6 percent of the national House popular vote to Biden ’ s 51.1 percent ) , that 0.5-point difference is nothing to write home about .
Of course , aggregating the House vote at the state or national level could be obscuring some @ @ @ @ @ @ @ split-ticket voting took place .
Ideally , we ’ d compare the results of each House race to the presidential result in that congressional district , but that data is still being calculated .
( Contrary to popular belief , those numbers aren ’ t usually available from official sources ; they have to be calculated by outside analysts after the fact . )
But based on the numbers we do have ( thanks to some fast work by Daily Kos Elections and Bloomberg ’ s Greg Giroux ) , so far it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ most districts as well .
And The Atlantic ’ s Ronald Brownstein estimates that Biden carried about 223 House districts — almost exactly the same as the 222-224 seats Democrats will hold in the next Congress .
In seeking to explain why Biden racked up a gaudy electoral-vote total but Democrats performed poorly in the Senate and House , there have been all sorts of theories — one common one being that voters , anticipating a Biden win , preemptively voted Republican for Congress to give Biden some checks and balances .
But @ @ @ @ @ @ @ isn ’ t much evidence for that .
The vast majority of voters voted the same way for president and Congress , and while there were undoubtedly some people who split their tickets between Biden and congressional Republicans , there were also some who split their tickets between Trump and congressional Democrats .
A better take is that Democrats “ performed poorly ” in the Senate and House simply compared with pre-election expectations .
But they still won more House seats than Republicans did , and arguably , the main reason they didn @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is because of the chamber ’ s Republican bias .
In reality , Democrats performed about the same in all three races , but the structures through which those results were filtered — the Electoral College , the Senate seats that happened to be up and a House map biased toward Republicans — produced different results .

The narrative of the 2020 election is that Joe Biden did pretty well … but down-ballot Democrats, not so much. And while this is true if you look simply at the results — Republicans defended most of their vulnerable Senate seats and gained several seats in the House — there wasn’t actually as much split-ticket voting as you might think.
For decades now, how a person votes for president has become a better and better predictor of how she votes in other races. As we wrote after the 2018 midterms, the correlation between a state or district’s base partisanship and how it voted for Senate or House that year was extremely strong. And the same looks like it was true in 2020 as well.
Why did down-ballot Democrats have such a mediocre showing?
The chart below shows the difference between Biden’s vote share and the Democratic Senate candidate’s vote share in the 33 states that held Senate elections contested by both major parties in 2020. And as you can see, people largely voted the same way for both president and Senate. In all but three states, the Democratic Senate candidate’s vote share was within 5 percentage points of Biden’s. (Similarly, Republican Senate candidates’ vote shares were within 5 points of President Trump’s in all but three states.)
The Democratic Senate candidate who most outperformed Biden was Sen. Jack Reed of Rhode Island, who received 66.6 percent of the vote — 7.2 points better than Biden. But this won’t surprise anyone familiar with Rhode Island politics. An Army veteran and political moderate, Reed has always enjoyed significant crossover support, winning each of his last three elections with more than 70 percent of the vote. However, it is perhaps a sign of these highly polarized times that Reed’s 2020 vote share was the lowest since he was first elected in 1996. (And it might have been even lower if his GOP opponent hadn’t been disavowed by the Rhode Island Republican Party after it learned of his 2019 arrest on charges of domestic assault.)
[Related: Politics Podcast: Why Did Down-Ballot Democrats Have Such A Mediocre Showing?]
On the other end of the spectrum, the Democratic Senate candidate who most underperformed Biden was Chris Janicek in Nebraska, who garnered just 26.2 percent of the vote even as Biden received 39.3 percent. The fact that Janicek underperformed Biden isn’t that surprising, though, as he was also a seriously flawed candidate. The Nebraska Democratic Party asked Janicek to drop out after he made sexual comments about one of his campaign staffers in a group text message and ultimately endorsed a write-in candidate instead of him. However, Republican Sen. Ben Sasse was also a strong incumbent (he outperformed Trump by more than any Senate Republican in the country — 8.9 percentage points). Sasse’s occasional willingness to speak out against Trump may have helped him appeal to Trump-skeptical Republicans in the state.
The last state with a significant amount of split-ticket voting was Maine. Democrat Sara Gideon did 10.6 points worse than Biden, while Republican Sen. Susan Collins did 7.1 points better than Trump. Because Maine is a fairly competitive state, that was enough for Collins to win the state even though Trump lost it. That gives Maine a unique distinction: It is the only state so far that didn’t vote for the same party for president and Senate, something that used to be fairly common. But this year, Collins was the only candidate whose bipartisan bona fides (she voted against Trump more often than any other Republican senator, most recently her vote against now-Supreme Court Justice Amy Coney Barrett) were strong enough to pull the trick.
All other Senate races hewed quite close to presidential results — and because this year’s Senate races took place largely on Republican turf, that was a big blow to Democrats’ efforts to flip the chamber. Before Election Day, Democrats were hopeful that strong candidates like Steve Bullock, Jaime Harrison and Barbara Bollier could swim against the partisan tide and pull out wins in Montana, South Carolina and Kansas, respectively. But for all the money they raised, for all of their theoretical crossover appeal, Bullock ran just 4.6 points ahead of Biden, Harrison just 0.8 points ahead and Bollier just 0.3 points ahead. As a result, none came particularly close to winning their very red states.
[Related: Republicans Won Almost Every Election Where Redistricting Was At Stake]
To make matters worse for Democrats, their candidates also underperformed Biden in states where running slightly ahead of him might have been enough to flip a Senate seat or two. Maine is certainly an obvious example, but this category also includes states like Texas, where Democratic Senate candidate M.J. Hegar ran 2.6 points behind the president-elect (perhaps because her opponent, Sen. John Cornyn, was more temperamentally palatable to suburban swing voters than Trump was), and North Carolina, where Democrat Cal Cunningham ran 1.6 points behind (perhaps due to his sexting scandal). And despite Biden winning Georgia with 49.5 percent of the vote, Democrat Jon Ossoff got just 47.9 percent in the regular Senate election, and Democrats in the special election combined for just 48.4 percent — problems Ossoff and Raphael Warnock will need to solve in next month’s runoffs.
There was even some Democratic dropoff in Senate races Democrats won, like Colorado and Michigan. Democrat John Hickenlooper did 1.9 points worse than Biden in the former, and Sen. Gary Peters did 0.7 points worse than Biden in the latter. These underperformances may also have been due to the strength of the Republican candidates. Like Cornyn, Sen. Cory Gardner of Colorado may simply have benefited from being a Republican not named Trump in a once-red state that has zoomed leftward over the last few years. And in Michigan, John James was probably the GOP’s strongest recruit of the cycle; in a year where Democrats were consistently winning the fundraising battle, he raised more money than Peters in four consecutive quarters.
Again, though, these differences are quite small; only a tiny fraction of Biden voters cast a vote for anyone but Democrats in the Senate. And, it turns out, the same is true in the House. Even though Democrats lost seats in the lower chamber, there were very few people who voted for opposite parties for president and House.
Our second chart shows the difference between Biden’s vote share and the Democratic share of the House popular vote in the 44 states where more than 85 percent of House seats were contested by both major parties. Again, the lack of split-ticket voting is apparent from the way the dots bunch around the center line. Indeed, the Democratic share of the House popular vote was within 5 percentage points of Biden’s vote share in every state. And even though House Democrats did underperform Biden overall (so far, they have received 50.6 percent of the national House popular vote to Biden’s 51.1 percent), that 0.5-point difference is nothing to write home about.
Of course, aggregating the House vote at the state or national level could be obscuring some individual districts where a significant amount of split-ticket voting took place. Ideally, we’d compare the results of each House race to the presidential result in that congressional district, but that data is still being calculated. (Contrary to popular belief, those numbers aren’t usually available from official sources; they have to be calculated by outside analysts after the fact.) But based on the numbers we do have (thanks to some fast work by Daily Kos Elections and Bloomberg’s Greg Giroux), so far it looks like split-ticket voting was minimal in most districts as well.
And The Atlantic’s Ronald Brownstein estimates that Biden carried about 223 House districts — almost exactly the same as the 222-224 seats Democrats will hold in the next Congress.
[How A Record Number Of Republican Women Will — And Won’t — Change Congress]
In seeking to explain why Biden racked up a gaudy electoral-vote total but Democrats performed poorly in the Senate and House, there have been all sorts of theories — one common one being that voters, anticipating a Biden win, preemptively voted Republican for Congress to give Biden some checks and balances. But as we have seen, there just isn’t much evidence for that. The vast majority of voters voted the same way for president and Congress, and while there were undoubtedly some people who split their tickets between Biden and congressional Republicans, there were also some who split their tickets between Trump and congressional Democrats.
A better take is that Democrats “performed poorly” in the Senate and House simply compared with pre-election expectations. But they still won more House seats than Republicans did, and arguably, the main reason they didn’t do better in the Senate is because of the chamber’s Republican bias. In reality, Democrats performed about the same in all three races, but the structures through which those results were filtered — the Electoral College, the Senate seats that happened to be up and a House map biased toward Republicans — produced different results.
Will Georgia stay blue? | FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast


fivethirthyeight--2020-12-02--Charles Johnson Was Damn Good Behind (And At) The Plate

Welcome back to our Hall of Pretty Damn Good Players , a celebration of unsung athletes who won ’ t make their sport ’ s Hall of Fame but still deserve to be celebrated for their accomplishments and impact on the game .
Today ’ s entry is a player whom few younger fans remember today but who was a fixture behind home plate from the mid-1990s through the mid-2000s — and has gained an unwelcome bit of historical significance in recent years , through no fault of his own .
I ’ m referring to former big-league catcher Charles @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the Florida Marlins but also saw time with the Orioles , Rockies , Devil Rays , Dodgers and White Sox in a 12-year MLB career .
And his historical import ?
Johnson was the last Black American player to be an everyday catcher in the majors , a drought that stretches back to the 2005 season ( the year after Johnson caught 91 of Colorado ’ s 162 games ) .
When Claire Smith of The Undefeated tracked Johnson down in April , he was still waiting for a successor to whom he @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 1995 , it was just Lenny [ Webster ] and me , ” Johnson said of the Black catchers he could remember as contemporaries .
“ Now there are none .
To me , that is mind-boggling.
” But with more efforts to recruit Black players to the game in general ( and to catch specifically ) , Johnson may yet serve as the inspiration for another generation of Black catchers .
And as part of that , he should be remembered , for his great skills both behind and at the plate @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the University of Miami — where he had been a first-team All-American in his final season , catching for one of the final four teams in the College World Series — Johnson was taken 28th overall by the Marlins .
He quickly zoomed through the minor league ranks , putting up an .860 OPS and 47 home runs in 267 games split over two seasons between Single- and Double-A .
( The performance earned Johnson Baseball America ’ s No .
7 overall prospect ranking in the spring of 1995 . )
That @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the Marlins and instantly made his presence known at the major league level .
In 1995 , Johnson tied second baseman Quilvio Veras for the team lead among position players in wins above replacement ( 3.0 in just 97 games ) , posting an above-average .761 OPS .
He also won his first Gold Glove Award for stellar defense at the game ’ s most difficult position , all at the young age of 23 — one of only seven catchers who can say that .
Among MLB catchers with at least 500 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of Famer Iván “ Pudge ” Rodríguez ( 48 percent ) gunned down would-be base stealers at a greater rate than Johnson ’ s 43 percent clip .
It was the first of four-straight Gold Glove nods for Johnson , helping him establish a well-deserved reputation as one of the game ’ s premier defensive backstops .
In fact , according to fielding runs above average ( FRAA ) , only 11 primary catchers since 1901 have been worth more behind the plate than Johnson , who saved 72 total runs over the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ rookie breakout , Johnson continued to improve his defense in 1996 ( from +12 to +14 FRAA ) , though his hitting took a step backwards , with an OPS that dipped below .700 for the first time at any level as a professional .
However , Johnson ’ s team started building momentum with the arrivals of outfielder Devon White and starting pitchers Kevin Brown and Al Leiter , helping Florida come within striking distance of a .500 record ( 80-82 ) for the first time in the franchise ’ s young @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Johnson ’ s hitting skills returned — helping him produce the best season of his entire career , at the best possible time .
In 1997 , Johnson had 4.6 WAR , the 39th-best season since 1901 for a catcher at the age of 25 or younger .
He was the seventh-best catcher in baseball by OPS ( .802 ) and the second-best on defense — behind Pudge , again — according to FRAA , where he was +19 .
( As part of that , Johnson went the entire season without committing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ accomplishment for a full-time catcher . )
Few young catchers have ever played so well in a single season on both offense and defense ; since the 1994-95 strike , only six others ever had a season in which they ranked among the top eight in both OPS and FRAA by the age of 25 .
If great teams are indeed built up the middle , then a performance like Johnson provided from behind the plate can form the cornerstone of a championship roster .
And by 1997 , the Marlins finally had @ @ @ @ @ @ @ returning stars such as White , Brown , Leiter and right fielder Gary Sheffield — and developing young Cuban starter Liván Hernández — Florida added even more talent going into the season , in the form of pitcher Alex Fernandez , third baseman Bobby Bonilla and left fielder Moisés Alou .
The result was one of the most talent-laden and downright cool teams in baseball history , right down to its quintessentially ’ 90s teal-and-black color scheme .
And during the regular season , Johnson was the top position player of the bunch @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the postseason , Johnson improved his OPS to .844 — second-best on the team among regular hitters , behind only the fearsome Sheffield ( 1.121 ) .
He hit .357 with an .844 OPS against the Cleveland Indians in the World Series , including a home run in Game 1 and a clutch single in the bottom of the ninth of Game 7 , which helped the Fish tie the game ( forcing extra innings ) .
Florida ended up winning in the 11th , earning Johnson a championship ring to cap off @ @ @ @ @ @ @ young catcher had produced in a while .
But like most members of the 1997 Marlins , Johnson would not stay in South Florida for very long .
On May 14 , 1998 , Johnson was shipped to the Los Angeles Dodgers in an absolute blockbuster of a deal that also saw Sheffield , Bonilla , outfielder Jim Eisenreich and young pitcher Manuel Barrios head to L.A. for future Hall of Fame catcher Mike Piazza and third baseman Todd Zeile .
Johnson had been doing fine before the trade , and he still @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ( his fourth-straight ) , but his hitting fell off ( .638 OPS ) after he arrived in Los Angeles , and he was traded again after the season , bouncing from the Dodgers to the Mets and then to the Orioles in a series of deals .
The upheaval led to a new phase of Johnson ’ s career .
He was still a very good two-way catcher over the next three seasons with Baltimore , the Chicago White Sox and Florida ( again ) , producing 11.0 WAR — third-most among @ @ @ @ @ @ @ only Rodríguez and Piazza .
But he would never again win a Gold Glove , and he was an All-Star only once more ( in 2001 ) .
To use Rodríguez and Piazza as comparison points , Johnson couldn ’ t quite sustain the same Hall of Fame career path into his late 20s as they did , despite relatively comparable performances as 25-year-olds .
And after 2001 , as he entered his 30s , Johnson ’ s performance tailed off significantly .
He had to fight for playing time with the Marlins @ @ @ @ @ @ @ becoming a defensive catcher who could no longer produce the offensive numbers that had been a hallmark when he was younger .
After four consecutive mediocre offensive seasons ( with an OPS 14 percent worse than average ) , banged up by years of wear and tear behind the plate and struggling to latch on with multiple teams , Johnson ’ s MLB career ended when Tampa Bay released him midway through the 2005 campaign .
In retirement , Johnson now works as a community ambassador for the Marlins and runs a foundation @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the Miami area .
Like several members of our Hall of Pretty Damn Good Players , Johnson peaked early and couldn ’ t sustain the superstar trajectory he started on as a young player .
As a result , he won ’ t ever get inducted into Cooperstown — but that doesn ’ t take away from his reputation as one of history ’ s greatest defensive catchers , nor does it diminish the vital role he played for the star-studded 1997 Marlins .
( No less an authority than that team ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Johnson its most indispensable player . )
And while only time will tell if a new class of young Black catchers eventually follows in Johnson ’ s MLB footsteps , those who do could scarcely find a better role model than a guy who was once one of the two-way exemplars at the position .

Welcome back to our Hall of Pretty Damn Good Players, a celebration of unsung athletes who won’t make their sport’s Hall of Fame but still deserve to be celebrated for their accomplishments and impact on the game. Today’s entry is a player whom few younger fans remember today but who was a fixture behind home plate from the mid-1990s through the mid-2000s — and has gained an unwelcome bit of historical significance in recent years, through no fault of his own.
HOF resume: Charles Johnson, C Category Value Rank at Pos. Career WAR 24.7 53 Peak WAR 21.9 47 JAWS 23.3 51 HOF Monitor 25 71 HOF Standards 28 45 Black Ink Test 0 64 Gray Ink Test 0 64 Implied HOF%** 3% 62 Years on ballot 1 — Vote share 0.0% — HOF track*** — — *JAWS averages together a player’s peak and career WAR. **Hall of Fame probability based on traditional stats. ***Hall of Fame track based on most recent vote share and years on the ballot. Sources: Baseball-Reference.com, FanGraphs
I’m referring to former big-league catcher Charles Johnson, who played most notably for the Florida Marlins but also saw time with the Orioles, Rockies, Devil Rays, Dodgers and White Sox in a 12-year MLB career. And his historical import? Johnson was the last Black American player to be an everyday catcher in the majors, a drought that stretches back to the 2005 season (the year after Johnson caught 91 of Colorado’s 162 games). When Claire Smith of The Undefeated tracked Johnson down in April, he was still waiting for a successor to whom he could pass the baton.
“From 1995, it was just Lenny [Webster] and me,” Johnson said of the Black catchers he could remember as contemporaries. “Now there are none. To me, that is mind-boggling.”
[Nomar Garciaparra’s Full Career Wasn’t Enough For Cooperstown — But It Was Still Damn Good]
But with more efforts to recruit Black players to the game in general (and to catch specifically), Johnson may yet serve as the inspiration for another generation of Black catchers. And as part of that, he should be remembered, for his great skills both behind and at the plate. Entering the 1992 draft out of the University of Miami — where he had been a first-team All-American in his final season, catching for one of the final four teams in the College World Series — Johnson was taken 28th overall by the Marlins. He quickly zoomed through the minor league ranks, putting up an .860 OPS and 47 home runs in 267 games split over two seasons between Single- and Double-A. (The performance earned Johnson Baseball America’s No. 7 overall prospect ranking in the spring of 1995.) That year, Johnson became a regular with the Marlins and instantly made his presence known at the major league level.
In 1995, Johnson tied second baseman Quilvio Veras for the team lead among position players in wins above replacement (3.0 in just 97 games), posting an above-average .761 OPS. He also won his first Gold Glove Award for stellar defense at the game’s most difficult position, all at the young age of 23 — one of only seven catchers who can say that. Among MLB catchers with at least 500 innings that year, only future Hall of Famer Iván “Pudge” Rodríguez (48 percent) gunned down would-be base stealers at a greater rate than Johnson’s 43 percent clip.
It was the first of four-straight Gold Glove nods for Johnson, helping him establish a well-deserved reputation as one of the game’s premier defensive backstops. In fact, according to fielding runs above average (FRAA), only 11 primary catchers since 1901 have been worth more behind the plate than Johnson, who saved 72 total runs over the course of his career.
Baseball’s best defensive catchers, by the numbers Most fielding runs above average (FRAA) for players who primarily played catcher, 1901-2020 Seasons Career Rank Player From To WAR FRAA 1 Yadier Molina 2004 2020 47.3 +178 2 Iván Rodríguez 1991 2011 69.0 +158 3 Russell Martin 2006 2019 46.9 +124 4 Jim Sundberg 1974 1989 39.1 +115 5 Gary Carter 1974 1992 66.5 +109 6 Bob Boone 1972 1990 29.7 +106 7 Buster Posey 2009 2019 47.1 +99 8 José Molina 1999 2014 10.3 +92 9 Johnny Bench 1967 1980 72.7 +88 10 Brian McCann 2005 2019 43.2 +79 11 Rick Dempsey 1969 1992 26.5 +72 12 Charles Johnson 1994 2005 24.2 +72 13 Del Crandall 1949 1966 28.6 +70 14 Jeff Mathis 2005 2020 2.1 +70 15 Steve Yeager 1972 1986 18.2 +70 FRAA averages together the defensive values (relative to position average) found at Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs. Sources: Baseball-Reference.com, FanGraphs
After his rookie breakout, Johnson continued to improve his defense in 1996 (from +12 to +14 FRAA), though his hitting took a step backwards, with an OPS that dipped below .700 for the first time at any level as a professional. However, Johnson’s team started building momentum with the arrivals of outfielder Devon White and starting pitchers Kevin Brown and Al Leiter, helping Florida come within striking distance of a .500 record (80-82) for the first time in the franchise’s young history. And the next year, Johnson’s hitting skills returned — helping him produce the best season of his entire career, at the best possible time.
In 1997, Johnson had 4.6 WAR, the 39th-best season since 1901 for a catcher at the age of 25 or younger. He was the seventh-best catcher in baseball by OPS (.802) and the second-best on defense — behind Pudge, again — according to FRAA, where he was +19. (As part of that, Johnson went the entire season without committing a single error, an extremely rare accomplishment for a full-time catcher.) Few young catchers have ever played so well in a single season on both offense and defense; since the 1994-95 strike, only six others ever had a season in which they ranked among the top eight in both OPS and FRAA by the age of 25. If great teams are indeed built up the middle, then a performance like Johnson provided from behind the plate can form the cornerstone of a championship roster.
[Bernie Williams Deserves More Credit For Making The Yankees A Dynasty]
And by 1997, the Marlins finally had one of those. On top of returning stars such as White, Brown, Leiter and right fielder Gary Sheffield — and developing young Cuban starter Liván Hernández — Florida added even more talent going into the season, in the form of pitcher Alex Fernandez, third baseman Bobby Bonilla and left fielder Moisés Alou. The result was one of the most talent-laden and downright cool teams in baseball history, right down to its quintessentially ’90s teal-and-black color scheme. And during the regular season, Johnson was the top position player of the bunch by WAR.
As Florida progressed through the postseason, Johnson improved his OPS to .844 — second-best on the team among regular hitters, behind only the fearsome Sheffield (1.121). He hit .357 with an .844 OPS against the Cleveland Indians in the World Series, including a home run in Game 1 and a clutch single in the bottom of the ninth of Game 7, which helped the Fish tie the game (forcing extra innings).
Florida ended up winning in the 11th, earning Johnson a championship ring to cap off one of the best two-way seasons any young catcher had produced in a while. But like most members of the 1997 Marlins, Johnson would not stay in South Florida for very long. On May 14, 1998, Johnson was shipped to the Los Angeles Dodgers in an absolute blockbuster of a deal that also saw Sheffield, Bonilla, outfielder Jim Eisenreich and young pitcher Manuel Barrios head to L.A. for future Hall of Fame catcher Mike Piazza and third baseman Todd Zeile. Johnson had been doing fine before the trade, and he still won the NL Gold Glove in 1998 (his fourth-straight), but his hitting fell off (.638 OPS) after he arrived in Los Angeles, and he was traded again after the season, bouncing from the Dodgers to the Mets and then to the Orioles in a series of deals.
[Lou Whitaker Turned A Damn Good Double Play]
The upheaval led to a new phase of Johnson’s career. He was still a very good two-way catcher over the next three seasons with Baltimore, the Chicago White Sox and Florida (again), producing 11.0 WAR — third-most among MLB catchers over that span, trailing only Rodríguez and Piazza. But he would never again win a Gold Glove, and he was an All-Star only once more (in 2001). To use Rodríguez and Piazza as comparison points, Johnson couldn’t quite sustain the same Hall of Fame career path into his late 20s as they did, despite relatively comparable performances as 25-year-olds.
And after 2001, as he entered his 30s, Johnson’s performance tailed off significantly. He had to fight for playing time with the Marlins, Rockies and Devil Rays, primarily becoming a defensive catcher who could no longer produce the offensive numbers that had been a hallmark when he was younger. After four consecutive mediocre offensive seasons (with an OPS 14 percent worse than average), banged up by years of wear and tear behind the plate and struggling to latch on with multiple teams, Johnson’s MLB career ended when Tampa Bay released him midway through the 2005 campaign. In retirement, Johnson now works as a community ambassador for the Marlins and runs a foundation dedicated to helping families in need in the Miami area.
Like several members of our Hall of Pretty Damn Good Players, Johnson peaked early and couldn’t sustain the superstar trajectory he started on as a young player. As a result, he won’t ever get inducted into Cooperstown — but that doesn’t take away from his reputation as one of history’s greatest defensive catchers, nor does it diminish the vital role he played for the star-studded 1997 Marlins. (No less an authority than that team’s manager, Jim Leyland, called Johnson its most indispensable player.) And while only time will tell if a new class of young Black catchers eventually follows in Johnson’s MLB footsteps, those who do could scarcely find a better role model than a guy who was once one of the two-way exemplars at the position.


fivethirthyeight--2020-12-02--Alabama Is Winning With Its Offense, Thanks To Mac Jones

On its opening drive of the college football season , the Alabama Crimson Tide offense sputtered to a three-and-out , with quarterback Mac Jones misfiring twice .
But that failure wasn ’ t a harbinger of things to come : Jones and the Tide responded with three consecutive touchdown drives in a blowout win over Missouri .
That exact cadence — a three-and-out on the opening drive followed by three consecutive touchdown drives — played out two months later in the Iron Bowl .
Those are the only two instances of Alabama first-quarter three-and-outs this season .
And all each @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Not even a pandemic could disrupt the fall tradition of Alabama lounging atop the AP Top 25 poll .
The same team whose offense accounted for four of the top 15 picks in the most recent NFL draft once again boasts the most efficient ( 97.7 out of a possible 100 ) and highest scoring ( 48.5 points per game ) offense in the Power Five conferences .
This is further evidence that the Tide , which recaptured its juggernaut status under coach Nick Saban ’ s backbreaking defenses , has evolved with @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The linchpin has been Michael McCorkle Jones , a redshirt junior whose No .
1 spot on the depth chart was not at all certain entering the season .
In a matter of months , Jones not only fought off blue-chip , early-enrollee Bryce Young for the starting job , but he also emerged as one of the favorites to hoist the Heisman Trophy and could be one of the first quarterbacks taken in the 2021 NFL draft .
This is a man who entered last season with 13 career pass attempts .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ to me and say , ‘ You ’ re never going to play at Alabama , ’ ” Jones recalled of his college recruitment .
Jones faced the ambitious task of succeeding Tua Tagovailoa , one of the greatest and most popular players in school history .
Suffice it to say , Jones has exceeded every expectation imaginable : He leads the nation in Total QBR ( 95.5 , on track to be the highest single-season mark since at least 2004 ) and ranks second among all Power Five quarterbacks in that period @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
He ranks a milder second in yards per attempt ( 12.02 ) and catchable attempt rate ( 85.0 percent ) .
Most recently , Jones responded to being called a “ game manager ” by Auburn QB Bo Nix with a career high five passing touchdowns in a 42-13 victory over the Tigers .
It marked the seventh conference game in which Jones produced a QBR exceeding 95 , giving him seven of Alabama ’ s top 25 quarterback performances in conference play since at least 2004 .
As ESPN ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in the QBR era even have seven career games with a QBR that high .
If Tagovailoa ’ s most memorable moment is any indication , Alabama lost arguably its best-ever deep-threat marksman when Tua left for the NFL .
What ’ s startling , then , is that Jones has exceeded Tagovailoa ’ s production on those throws .
Just over 16 percent of Jones ’ s passing attempts have sailed at least 20 yards downfield , which tracks to be the largest share by any starting Alabama QB for which data @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s done a good job of it , ” Saban said of Jones ’ s deep-ball proficiency , which in Saban speak is akin to presenting a lifetime achievement award .
Jones has attempted 28 passes in which the ball traveled at least 30 yards through the air .
That ’ s more than Tagovailoa attempted over any single season .
And Jones has completed 18 of them , the most of any FBS player this season and already the most by any Alabama QB since at least 2011 , the first @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Arm strength and aggressive decision-making is one thing , precision is most certainly another .
And Jones can certainly spin it , completing 64 percent of those throws .
It ’ s all enough to wonder whether Alabama ’ s 2009 subscription to the three-yards-and-a-cloud-of-dust philosophy was in actuality 100 years ago .
It ’ s also enough to wonder if Joe Burrow ’ s storyline has found a new host in Tuscaloosa .
Behind the arm of Jones , the Tide have rolled to the third-most-efficient offensive performance by any team through @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Tennessee head coach Jeremy Pruitt , a man who knows Alabama offenses well , called this year ’ s group the best offense he ’ d seen .
No Power Five team this season produces more points per drive ( 3.87 ) or expected points added per play ( 0.38 ) .
By successful play rate , Alabama is on pace to tie LSU ’ s 2019 national title team for the best offense by an SEC team in at least the past 17 seasons .
It would be remarkable if Jones brought @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s part of an offense with two other candidates in DeVonta Smith and Najee Harris .
But he has one of the more remarkable stories in college football , one of a player in transition from afterthought to preeminent force , from backup to Heisman contender .
And in a season in which Alabama fans dreaded the loss of Tagovailoa , Jones has proved capable of guiding the Tide to the highest echelon of the sport .

On its opening drive of the college football season, the Alabama Crimson Tide offense sputtered to a three-and-out, with quarterback Mac Jones misfiring twice. But that failure wasn’t a harbinger of things to come: Jones and the Tide responded with three consecutive touchdown drives in a blowout win over Missouri. That exact cadence — a three-and-out on the opening drive followed by three consecutive touchdown drives — played out two months later in the Iron Bowl. Those are the only two instances of Alabama first-quarter three-and-outs this season. And all each did was momentarily delay an onslaught.
Not even a pandemic could disrupt the fall tradition of Alabama lounging atop the AP Top 25 poll. The same team whose offense accounted for four of the top 15 picks in the most recent NFL draft once again boasts the most efficient (97.7 out of a possible 100) and highest scoring (48.5 points per game) offense in the Power Five conferences. This is further evidence that the Tide, which recaptured its juggernaut status under coach Nick Saban’s backbreaking defenses, has evolved with the landscape to prioritize high-volume scoring.
The linchpin has been Michael McCorkle Jones, a redshirt junior whose No. 1 spot on the depth chart was not at all certain entering the season. In a matter of months, Jones not only fought off blue-chip, early-enrollee Bryce Young for the starting job, but he also emerged as one of the favorites to hoist the Heisman Trophy and could be one of the first quarterbacks taken in the 2021 NFL draft. This is a man who entered last season with 13 career pass attempts.
“Some people would come straight up to me and say, ‘You’re never going to play at Alabama,’” Jones recalled of his college recruitment.
Jones faced the ambitious task of succeeding Tua Tagovailoa, one of the greatest and most popular players in school history. Suffice it to say, Jones has exceeded every expectation imaginable: He leads the nation in Total QBR (95.5, on track to be the highest single-season mark since at least 2004) and ranks second among all Power Five quarterbacks in that period in QBR against a five-man pass rush. He ranks a milder second in yards per attempt (12.02) and catchable attempt rate (85.0 percent).
Mac Jones is having a season for the ages Top player seasons by Total Quarterback Rating (QBR) since at least 2004 Rk Player Team Season QBR 1 Mac Jones Alabama 2020 95.5 2 Kyler Murray Oklahoma 2018 95.4 3 Joe Burrow LSU 2019 94.9 4 Tua Tagovailoa Alabama 2019 94.8 5 Justin Fields Ohio State 2020 94.4 6 Russell Wilson Wisconsin 2011 94.1 7 Andrew Luck Stanford 2010 93.8 8 Kyle Trask Florida 2020 93.4 9 Tua Tagovailoa Alabama 2018 93.1 10 Baker Mayfield Oklahoma 2017 92.3 2020 stats through games of Nov. 28. Source: ESPN Stats & Information Group
Most recently, Jones responded to being called a “game manager” by Auburn QB Bo Nix with a career high five passing touchdowns in a 42-13 victory over the Tigers. It marked the seventh conference game in which Jones produced a QBR exceeding 95, giving him seven of Alabama’s top 25 quarterback performances in conference play since at least 2004. As ESPN’s Brad Edwards noted, only 15 players in the QBR era even have seven career games with a QBR that high.
If Tagovailoa’s most memorable moment is any indication, Alabama lost arguably its best-ever deep-threat marksman when Tua left for the NFL. What’s startling, then, is that Jones has exceeded Tagovailoa’s production on those throws. Just over 16 percent of Jones’s passing attempts have sailed at least 20 yards downfield, which tracks to be the largest share by any starting Alabama QB for which data is available.
“I think he’s done a good job of it,” Saban said of Jones’s deep-ball proficiency, which in Saban speak is akin to presenting a lifetime achievement award.
Jones has attempted 28 passes in which the ball traveled at least 30 yards through the air. That’s more than Tagovailoa attempted over any single season. And Jones has completed 18 of them, the most of any FBS player this season and already the most by any Alabama QB since at least 2011, the first year for which data is available. Arm strength and aggressive decision-making is one thing, precision is most certainly another. And Jones can certainly spin it, completing 64 percent of those throws.
This is basically a perfect throw from Mac Jones. pic.twitter.com/dFwTItyzZq — CBS Sports (@CBSSports) November 28, 2020
It’s all enough to wonder whether Alabama’s 2009 subscription to the three-yards-and-a-cloud-of-dust philosophy was in actuality 100 years ago. It’s also enough to wonder if Joe Burrow’s storyline has found a new host in Tuscaloosa.
Behind the arm of Jones, the Tide have rolled to the third-most-efficient offensive performance by any team through eight games in the playoff era. Tennessee head coach Jeremy Pruitt, a man who knows Alabama offenses well, called this year’s group the best offense he’d seen. No Power Five team this season produces more points per drive (3.87) or expected points added per play (0.38). By successful play rate, Alabama is on pace to tie LSU’s 2019 national title team for the best offense by an SEC team in at least the past 17 seasons.
It would be remarkable if Jones brought home the Heisman, seeing as he’s part of an offense with two other candidates in DeVonta Smith and Najee Harris. But he has one of the more remarkable stories in college football, one of a player in transition from afterthought to preeminent force, from backup to Heisman contender. And in a season in which Alabama fans dreaded the loss of Tagovailoa, Jones has proved capable of guiding the Tide to the highest echelon of the sport.


fivethirthyeight--2020-12-03--5 Ways Biden Might Differ From — Or Agree With — Trump On Technology

Most political obsessives trying to guess who President-elect Joe Biden might pick to be in his Cabinet are focused on the flashy positions : secretary of state , secretary of defense , attorney general .
Then there are us nerds , who are keen to find out who will be the new chair of the Federal Communications Commission .
President Trump loves to talk and tweet about his feelings on tech , though his agenda wasn ’ t exactly clear and consistent .
But tech policy is increasingly important in our everyday lives , especially as the pandemic has made @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and internet connections .
Biden will have to navigate Trump ’ s legacy while charting his own course .
Here ’ s how Trump has influenced five key tech policy areas and what Biden might do about them .
One of Trump ’ s first acts as president was to appoint Ajit Pai chair of the FCC , and less than a year later , Pai completed a goal he had long pursued : repealing the commission ’ s net neutrality protections .
These rules were enacted by the FCC during Barack Obama @ @ @ @ @ @ @ service providers treat all types of communications equally , prohibiting them from blocking or throttling some services while prioritizing others .
But now telecom companies can do what they like .
Since the net neutrality rules were repealed , providers have taken a number of steps that would have violated the old rules .
AT & T , for example , doesn ’ t count streaming HBO Max toward its customers ’ data limits — AT & T owns the streaming platform after its merger with Time Warner — but it does count @ @ @ @ @ @ @ up data .
“ That ’ s clear self-preferencing , ” said Chris Lewis , the president of the consumer advocacy group Public Knowledge and a net neutrality proponent .
“ This is problematic , and it ’ s one of the reasons we wanted to have net neutrality rules.
” Pai has announced he ’ s stepping down in January , just in time for Biden to appoint a new chair .
Depending who he picks and what kind of guidance comes out of the White House , it ’ s possible @ @ @ @ @ @ @ net neutrality .
Biden has tapped Mignon Clyburn , a former FCC commissioner and a net neutrality advocate , for his transition team , and her name has been tossed around as a potential FCC chair as well .
But Biden might be better off trying a new approach , rather than simply resurrecting the old , rejected rules , according to Jesse Blumenthal , who leads tech and innovation policy for Stand Together , a group funded by the libertarian Koch family .
“ If you appoint a really activist FCC chair @ @ @ @ @ @ @ rulemaking process , and then the second the rule is passed , they ’ ll get sued , ” Blumenthal said , which could lead to the rules getting thrown out again .
“ If you actually care about the underlying policy here , you would be going to Congress and updating the Telecom Act instead of this pingpong.
” Trump ’ s interest in tech antitrust rules — legislation that could keep big tech from becoming too big — has been scattershot , but Democrats and Republicans have both expressed concern about @ @ @ @ @ @ @ tech companies .
In October , after a 16-month investigation , the House released a Democrat-led report on monopolies in tech that said digital powerhouses like Google , Facebook and Amazon wielded too much power and needed to be restructured .
A few weeks later , the Department of Justice and 11 Republican state attorneys general filed an antitrust lawsuit against Google , claiming the search engine company used anticompetitive practices .
And the Federal Trade Commission is currently preparing a possible antitrust suit against Facebook .
Biden has expressed an interest in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ t specified exactly what that will look like .
Instead , he and his campaign have made broad statements about how big tech companies have “ abused their power ” and “ evaded any form of responsibility , ” as campaign spokesperson Matt Hill told The New York Times .
“ That ends with a President Biden , ” he said .
But exactly how the crackdown will occur and what form it will take depends on the resolution of a philosophical divide among Democrats , according to Derek Bambauer , an @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Arizona .
“ The conventional wing is one where antitrust is a blunt instrument to be used only as a matter of last resort , and where you really need a strong , empirical showing of consumer harm , ” Bambauer said .
“ The other wing is what I call ‘ hipster antitrust.
’ ” To that group , he said , big is bad , regardless of what big does .
If Biden leans toward the former camp , action against big tech would likely take the form of investigations and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ said , while if he holds the more progressive view , he ’ d probably push for much more aggressive government intervention and the introduction of new regulations to limit big tech ’ s power .
Trump has cast suspicion on Chinese technology companies , in particular the threat they might pose to American users ’ privacy .
Trump ’ s recent attacks on the popular video app TikTok , which is owned by a Chinese company , were most notable .
They included a threat to ban the app in the U.S. @ @ @ @ @ @ @ off its American assets to another company , citing concerns about the app leaking private data to the Chinese government .
Yet strangely , when the deadline for the TikTok sale came around , Trump was no longer pursuing it .
But this was only the latest example of Trump ’ s ongoing tech war with China .
Throughout his tenure , he has tried to limit U.S. spending on Chinese technology , including by banning domestic telecom companies from using equipment from Huawei and ZTE , two massive Chinese telecommunications firms , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 1 billion for companies to replace their existing Chinese-manufactured equipment .
He has also banned U.S. investment in companies that are owned or controlled by Chinese military , and he moved to block the connection of a high-capacity U.S.-China undersea internet cable .
“ I think this was a proxy for larger international political issues the Trump administration has with China and an opportunity for the Trump administration to flex , ” said Christopher Ali , a media studies professor at the University of Virginia .
“ But these are serious and important @ @ @ @ @ @ @ communication platforms .
Is this a conversation we need to have ?
Perhaps .
But this can ’ t be a conversation only about TikTok.
” Threatening to ban an app whose main function is to document teens performing choreographed dance routines may seem frivolous , but many people , including Biden , share the overarching concerns about China and tech users ’ privacy .
But Biden ’ s approach will likely be different than Trump ’ s , focusing on strengthening domestic tech industries while building a diplomatic consensus with allies in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ influence .
I am not the only one who ’ s been pulling my hair out over the attention Section 230 has attracted from politicians in recent years , since they so often seem to have no idea what it is .
It ’ s best to read the law yourself , but in short , Section 230 is a few lines in the Communications Decency Act that prevent website owners from being held responsible for what other people post on their sites .
As Bambauer put it , it ’ s the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ about him on Twitter , “ I can sue that person , but I can ’ t sue Twitter.
” Section 230 is a funky little rule that encourages sites to both moderate what is posted and avoid being overly censorious .
Before the law was passed , courts had found sites that did some moderation liable for the third-party content they chose to leave up .
Since Section 230 protects sites from this liability , they ’ re free to moderate without worrying about what they let stand .
But it also @ @ @ @ @ @ @ reason : If a website were liable for the posts of its users , it stands to reason that the site might be a lot more strict about what content it allows .
Trump has claimed the law enables tech companies to censor conservative voices online and has sought to repeal Section 230 in various ways .
In the spring , for example , he signed an executive order that weakened the law , while Republicans have introduced legislation to repeal or rework it .
On Thanksgiving , Trump tweeted that Section 230 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and a defense spending bill reportedly might be used as a vehicle for passing language to repeal Section 230 .
Biden too has called for a repeal of Section 230 .
His complaint is not that companies do too much moderation , though , but that they don ’ t do enough , citing social media ’ s limited response to disinformation as the main problem .
But according to Lewis , “ A full repeal of Section 230 would be a huge blow to free expression online .
If President-elect Biden ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ then repealing Section 230 will not accomplish that or , at worst , it will increase moderation to the point that it is oppressive.
” Lewis said Section 230 could be reformed without harming free expression , such as by more clearly defining some of the law ’ s vague or ambiguous language , but without any actual details or plans from the Biden transition team , it ’ s hard to say if that ’ s what is being pursued .
“ It is the foundational law enabling the development of the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of economic growth , innovation , freedom of expression and global leadership , ” said Tiffany Moore , the senior vice president of political and industry affairs for the Consumer Technology Association .
“ Both sides have their concerns about Section 230 , but we need a thoughtful , substantive conversation about Section 230 , and ultimately that resides in Congress.
” This year ’ s pandemic threw the country ’ s digital divide into sharp relief .
With so many people staying home and relying on the internet to work , attend @ @ @ @ @ @ @ order food and stay in contact with loved ones , it became obvious how vital internet access is .
Yet millions of Americans lack access to the internet , or at least lack access to high-speed internet .
The FCC estimates 21 million Americans can ’ t get broadband internet where they live , but these figures are based on self-reported numbers from ISPs , and the agency itself has deemed them inaccurate enough to hold off on doling out funding until the figures can be verified .
Trump ’ s FCC has @ @ @ @ @ @ @ — such as through the Connect America Fund , which was started during the Obama era and provides subsidies to companies willing to build internet infrastructure in underserved areas .
But advocates working to reduce the digital divide say the FCC hasn ’ t made much progress under Trump .
“ The requirements placed upon big telco to do these connections were so subpar that really it allowed them to do what they were going to do anyway and pocket all these billions of dollars , ” Ali said .
Trump ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ other barrier in the digital divide : cost .
Many Americans who live in areas with access to high speed internet can ’ t afford it .
A goal to “ expand broadband access to every American ” was included in Biden ’ s campaign platform , though exactly what the plan is has yet to be revealed .
But continuing to stay the course is unlikely to solve the problem , according to Lewis , and the pandemic has made it harder to ignore .
“ Urban , rural people are being @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and it is essential for their lives , ” Lewis said .
“ We can ’ t just throw money at the problem .
There needs to be oversight , authority and an agency to deal with the causes of digital divide that don ’ t have to do with money .
”

Most political obsessives trying to guess who President-elect Joe Biden might pick to be in his Cabinet are focused on the flashy positions: secretary of state, secretary of defense, attorney general. Then there are us nerds, who are keen to find out who will be the new chair of the Federal Communications Commission.
President Trump loves to talk and tweet about his feelings on tech, though his agenda wasn’t exactly clear and consistent. But tech policy is increasingly important in our everyday lives, especially as the pandemic has made us rely more heavily on our devices and internet connections.
Why did down-ballot Democrats have such a mediocre showing?
Biden will have to navigate Trump’s legacy while charting his own course. Here’s how Trump has influenced five key tech policy areas and what Biden might do about them.
Net neutrality
One of Trump’s first acts as president was to appoint Ajit Pai chair of the FCC, and less than a year later, Pai completed a goal he had long pursued: repealing the commission’s net neutrality protections. These rules were enacted by the FCC during Barack Obama’s presidency and dictated that internet service providers treat all types of communications equally, prohibiting them from blocking or throttling some services while prioritizing others. But now telecom companies can do what they like.
Since the net neutrality rules were repealed, providers have taken a number of steps that would have violated the old rules. AT&T, for example, doesn’t count streaming HBO Max toward its customers’ data limits — AT&T owns the streaming platform after its merger with Time Warner — but it does count other, competing streaming services that eat up data.
[Related: What We’ve Learned About The Biden Administration From His Staffing Choices So Far]
“That’s clear self-preferencing,” said Chris Lewis, the president of the consumer advocacy group Public Knowledge and a net neutrality proponent. “This is problematic, and it’s one of the reasons we wanted to have net neutrality rules.”
Pai has announced he’s stepping down in January, just in time for Biden to appoint a new chair. Depending who he picks and what kind of guidance comes out of the White House, it’s possible for a new Democrat-majority FCC to resurrect net neutrality. Biden has tapped Mignon Clyburn, a former FCC commissioner and a net neutrality advocate, for his transition team, and her name has been tossed around as a potential FCC chair as well.
But Biden might be better off trying a new approach, rather than simply resurrecting the old, rejected rules, according to Jesse Blumenthal, who leads tech and innovation policy for Stand Together, a group funded by the libertarian Koch family.
“If you appoint a really activist FCC chair, they will immediately start the regulatory rulemaking process, and then the second the rule is passed, they’ll get sued,” Blumenthal said, which could lead to the rules getting thrown out again. “If you actually care about the underlying policy here, you would be going to Congress and updating the Telecom Act instead of this pingpong.”
Antitrust laws
Trump’s interest in tech antitrust rules — legislation that could keep big tech from becoming too big — has been scattershot, but Democrats and Republicans have both expressed concern about the concentration of power in a few tech companies. In October, after a 16-month investigation, the House released a Democrat-led report on monopolies in tech that said digital powerhouses like Google, Facebook and Amazon wielded too much power and needed to be restructured. A few weeks later, the Department of Justice and 11 Republican state attorneys general filed an antitrust lawsuit against Google, claiming the search engine company used anticompetitive practices. And the Federal Trade Commission is currently preparing a possible antitrust suit against Facebook.
Biden has expressed an interest in dealing with big tech, but hasn’t specified exactly what that will look like. Instead, he and his campaign have made broad statements about how big tech companies have “abused their power” and “evaded any form of responsibility,” as campaign spokesperson Matt Hill told The New York Times. “That ends with a President Biden,” he said.
[Related: How Trump Changed America]
But exactly how the crackdown will occur and what form it will take depends on the resolution of a philosophical divide among Democrats, according to Derek Bambauer, an internet law professor at the University of Arizona.
“The conventional wing is one where antitrust is a blunt instrument to be used only as a matter of last resort, and where you really need a strong, empirical showing of consumer harm,” Bambauer said. “The other wing is what I call ‘hipster antitrust.’” To that group, he said, big is bad, regardless of what big does.
If Biden leans toward the former camp, action against big tech would likely take the form of investigations and more scrutiny of certain acquisitions, Bambauer said, while if he holds the more progressive view, he’d probably push for much more aggressive government intervention and the introduction of new regulations to limit big tech’s power.
China’s tech influence
Trump has cast suspicion on Chinese technology companies, in particular the threat they might pose to American users’ privacy.
Trump’s recent attacks on the popular video app TikTok, which is owned by a Chinese company, were most notable. They included a threat to ban the app in the U.S. if the company didn’t sell off its American assets to another company, citing concerns about the app leaking private data to the Chinese government. Yet strangely, when the deadline for the TikTok sale came around, Trump was no longer pursuing it.
But this was only the latest example of Trump’s ongoing tech war with China. Throughout his tenure, he has tried to limit U.S. spending on Chinese technology, including by banning domestic telecom companies from using equipment from Huawei and ZTE, two massive Chinese telecommunications firms, and by signing a law providing $1 billion for companies to replace their existing Chinese-manufactured equipment. He has also banned U.S. investment in companies that are owned or controlled by Chinese military, and he moved to block the connection of a high-capacity U.S.-China undersea internet cable.
“I think this was a proxy for larger international political issues the Trump administration has with China and an opportunity for the Trump administration to flex,” said Christopher Ali, a media studies professor at the University of Virginia. “But these are serious and important questions regarding the ownership of apps and communication platforms. Is this a conversation we need to have? Perhaps. But this can’t be a conversation only about TikTok.”
Threatening to ban an app whose main function is to document teens performing choreographed dance routines may seem frivolous, but many people, including Biden, share the overarching concerns about China and tech users’ privacy. But Biden’s approach will likely be different than Trump’s, focusing on strengthening domestic tech industries while building a diplomatic consensus with allies in Europe to help limit China’s influence.
‘Those suburban votes were key to putting Biden over the top’: Nate Silver
Section 230
I am not the only one who’s been pulling my hair out over the attention Section 230 has attracted from politicians in recent years, since they so often seem to have no idea what it is. It’s best to read the law yourself, but in short, Section 230 is a few lines in the Communications Decency Act that prevent website owners from being held responsible for what other people post on their sites. As Bambauer put it, it’s the reason that if someone says something defamatory about him on Twitter, “I can sue that person, but I can’t sue Twitter.”
Section 230 is a funky little rule that encourages sites to both moderate what is posted and avoid being overly censorious. Before the law was passed, courts had found sites that did some moderation liable for the third-party content they chose to leave up. Since Section 230 protects sites from this liability, they’re free to moderate without worrying about what they let stand. But it also protects users from overmoderation for the same reason: If a website were liable for the posts of its users, it stands to reason that the site might be a lot more strict about what content it allows.
Trump has claimed the law enables tech companies to censor conservative voices online and has sought to repeal Section 230 in various ways. In the spring, for example, he signed an executive order that weakened the law, while Republicans have introduced legislation to repeal or rework it. On Thanksgiving, Trump tweeted that Section 230 should be “immediately terminated,” and a defense spending bill reportedly might be used as a vehicle for passing language to repeal Section 230.
[Related: There Wasn’t That Much Split-Ticket Voting In 2020]
Biden too has called for a repeal of Section 230. His complaint is not that companies do too much moderation, though, but that they don’t do enough, citing social media’s limited response to disinformation as the main problem. But according to Lewis, “A full repeal of Section 230 would be a huge blow to free expression online. If President-elect Biden’s goal is to increase moderation, then repealing Section 230 will not accomplish that or, at worst, it will increase moderation to the point that it is oppressive.”
Lewis said Section 230 could be reformed without harming free expression, such as by more clearly defining some of the law’s vague or ambiguous language, but without any actual details or plans from the Biden transition team, it’s hard to say if that’s what is being pursued.
“It is the foundational law enabling the development of the internet and it’s facilitated decades of economic growth, innovation, freedom of expression and global leadership,” said Tiffany Moore, the senior vice president of political and industry affairs for the Consumer Technology Association. “Both sides have their concerns about Section 230, but we need a thoughtful, substantive conversation about Section 230, and ultimately that resides in Congress.”
Digital divide
This year’s pandemic threw the country’s digital divide into sharp relief. With so many people staying home and relying on the internet to work, attend school, visit with their doctor, order food and stay in contact with loved ones, it became obvious how vital internet access is.
Yet millions of Americans lack access to the internet, or at least lack access to high-speed internet. The FCC estimates 21 million Americans can’t get broadband internet where they live, but these figures are based on self-reported numbers from ISPs, and the agency itself has deemed them inaccurate enough to hold off on doling out funding until the figures can be verified.
Trump’s FCC has made efforts to close the digital divide — such as through the Connect America Fund, which was started during the Obama era and provides subsidies to companies willing to build internet infrastructure in underserved areas. But advocates working to reduce the digital divide say the FCC hasn’t made much progress under Trump.
“The requirements placed upon big telco to do these connections were so subpar that really it allowed them to do what they were going to do anyway and pocket all these billions of dollars,” Ali said.
Trump’s administration has also been quiet on the other barrier in the digital divide: cost. Many Americans who live in areas with access to high speed internet can’t afford it.
A goal to “expand broadband access to every American” was included in Biden’s campaign platform, though exactly what the plan is has yet to be revealed. But continuing to stay the course is unlikely to solve the problem, according to Lewis, and the pandemic has made it harder to ignore.
“Urban, rural people are being left out from connectivity to broadband, and it is essential for their lives,” Lewis said. “We can’t just throw money at the problem. There needs to be oversight, authority and an agency to deal with the causes of digital divide that don’t have to do with money.”
Trump is setting a dangerous precedent for American democracy


fivethirthyeight--2020-12-04--Politics Podcast: How To Make Polls Better

In the wake of the 2020 election , there ’ s been plenty of discussion about the accuracy and usefulness of polling .
Nationally , the polling error was about 4 points , which is close to the average polling error dating back to 1972 .
But the polls were significantly off in the Midwest and in Florida , where we ’ ve repeatedly seen larger-than-average errors underestimating Republicans recently .
In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast , we hear from two A+ rated pollsters , J. Ann Selzer and Patrick Murray , about how they view the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ done about them .
Selzer conducts the Iowa Poll for the Des Moines Register , which showed Trump leading Biden in the state by 7 points in late October .
It was an outlier compared with the average , which showed a dead heat , but — as with a number of her outlier polls in the past — it proved correct .
Murray , the founding director of Monmouth University ’ s Polling Institute , ran into many of the same challenges in the Midwest and Florida that other pollsters did .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ clicking the “ play ” button in the audio player above or by downloading it in iTunes , the ESPN App or your favorite podcast platform .
If you are new to podcasts , learn how to listen .
The FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast is recorded Mondays and Thursdays .
Help new listeners discover the show by leaving us a rating and review on iTunes .
Have a comment , question or suggestion for “ good polling vs. bad polling ” ?
Get in touch by email , on Twitter or in the comments @

In the wake of the 2020 election, there’s been plenty of discussion about the accuracy and usefulness of polling. Nationally, the polling error was about 4 percentage points, which is close to the average polling error we’ve been seeing since 1972. But the polls were significantly off in the Midwest and Florida, where larger-than-average errors have repeatedly underestimated Republicans recently. In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, we hear from two A+ rated pollsters, J. Ann Selzer and Patrick Murray, about the challenges of polling and what can be done to meet those challenges.
Selzer conducts the Iowa Poll for the Des Moines Register, which showed President Trump leading Joe Biden in the state by 7 points in late October. It was an outlier compared with the average, which showed a dead heat, but — as with a number of her outlier polls — it proved correct. Murray, the founding director of Monmouth University’s Polling Institute, ran into many of the same challenges in the Midwest and Florida that other pollsters did.
You can listen to the episode by clicking the “play” button in the audio player above or by downloading it in iTunes, the ESPN App or your favorite podcast platform. If you are new to podcasts, learn how to listen.
The FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast is recorded Mondays and Thursdays. Help new listeners discover the show by leaving us a rating and review on iTunes. Have a comment, question or suggestion for “good polling vs. bad polling”? Get in touch by email, on Twitter or in the comments.


fivethirthyeight--2020-12-03--Carson Wentz Is In Freefall, And The Eagles Are Going Down With Him

Now is not exactly a great time to be Philadelphia Eagles QB Carson Wentz .
The former MVP candidate played miserably in Monday night ’ s loss to the Seattle Seahawks , going 22-for-41 with 157 yards ( 3.8 yards per attempt ) , one touchdown , one interception and a 60.7 passer rating in the first 58 minutes of the game before padding his stats with a totally meaningless garbage-time TD pass .
According to our QB Elo metric , it was Wentz ’ s ninth below-average performance in 11 starts so far this season and his fourth in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ won one of those four , but only because Dallas QB Ben DiNucci was equally bad ) .
According to schedule-adjusted expected points added ( EPA ) per game , Philadelphia has had the NFL ’ s third-worst passing offense of 2020 — only the Jets and Broncos are worse — which is a big reason that the Eagles ’ playoff chances are down to 23 percent despite playing in possibly the worst division in football history .
How did a quarterback who was the toast of the league in 2017 , starting @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that eventually won the Super Bowl , hit rock bottom like this ?
In truth , Wentz ’ s struggles have been building for a while now .
Aside from a brief surge late last season , his QB Elo rating ( relative to an average starter ) has very steadily dropped from its peak in November 2018 : Wentz ’ s decline has accelerated in 2020 , though .
His Total Quarterback Rating ( QBR ) has fallen from 62.8 ( 11th-best in football ) in 2019 to 49.6 ( 27th ) @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , he is staring at new career-worst marks in passing yards ( 231.0 ) , yards per attempt ( 6.0 ) , interceptions ( 1.4 ) , sacks ( 4.2 ) and completion percentage ( 58.1 percent ) .
In passer rating , Wentz ’ s decline over the previous three seasons — from 98.3 for the 2017-2019 seasons to 73.4 this year — is one of the five biggest drop-offs suffered by any NFL QB since 1950 : In some ways , Wentz ’ s descent mirrors the overall deterioration of the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
A team that was once overflowing with talent — built strong from the trenches out — is now wrecked with injuries , featuring one of the worst offensive lines in the league , an inexperienced receiving corps and one of the league ’ s least cost-effective rosters .
So , no , Wentz doesn ’ t have much to work with .
And coach Doug Pederson ’ s play-calling hasn ’ t always put Wentz in a position to succeed .
But as analyst and YouTuber Brett Kollmann points out in his @ @ @ @ @ @ @ fed into some of the quarterback ’ s worst impulses .
Specifically , Wentz has tended to play entirely too much “ hero ball ” this season : According to NFL Next Gen Stats , he ’ s forced 18.5 percent of his passes into tight coverage — defined as throws where the receiver had less than a yard of separation when the pass arrives — which is the fifth-highest share of any qualified QB in 2020 , and he ’ s completing only 37.2 percent of those passes ( well below the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ) .
Overall , Wentz has attempted the league ’ s fourth-most-difficult collection of throws according to Next Gen Stats , with an expected completion rate of just 61.8 percent .
Unlike Green Bay ’ s Aaron Rodgers , who also attempts difficult throws but completes more of them than he “ should , ” Wentz is actually completing far fewer passes than he ought to — even after adjusting for their difficulty .
By Next Gen Stats ’ estimation , Wentz ’ s completion percentage is 3.7 points lower than we would @ @ @ @ @ @ @ throws alone , the third-biggest shortfall in the NFL .
Because of his poor mechanics , which hurt accuracy — nearly 29 percent of Wentz ’ s throws have been off-target — and even worse decision-making , Wentz has morphed from one of the NFL ’ s most promising young QBs to one of the worst QBs in the league , full stop .
But because of how his contract is structured , the Eagles essentially have no choice but to push forward with Wentz leading the way .
Philly would face a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ or traded in 2021 , which might be why Pederson seems dead-set against expanding rookie backup Jalen Hurts ’ s playing time despite Wentz ’ s struggles .
Instead , the team is stuck trying to figure out how to maximize Wentz ’ s talent while reducing some of the terrible mistakes that have plagued the majority of his 2020 season , particularly in recent weeks .
As we mentioned earlier , the Eagles still have a 23 percent chance to make the playoffs — which is simultaneously disappointing ( given the epic @ @ @ @ @ @ @ much higher than a 3-7-1 team has any right to expect .
Their remaining schedule isn ’ t exactly easy , though it ’ s roughly comparable to those of Washington and the New York Giants .
( The Cowboys actually have by far the easiest remaining schedule of any NFC East team , according to their opponents ’ average opposing Elo rating , though they are probably also the worst NFC East team . )
Despite Wentz ’ s struggles , Philadelphia can still salvage its season .
But his historic regression @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a cakewalk into a tough battle down the stretch .
Looking ahead : Week 13 doesn ’ t offer much in the way of true blockbuster contests , but the game that best mixes good , evenly matched teams is probably Bills-49ers — the later of two Monday Night Football games next week .
San Francisco had been struggling mightily since regular starter Jimmy Garoppolo was lost in Week 8 , but the Niners pulled out a surprising road win against the Rams on Sunday to salvage some chance at the playoffs .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ Pro-Football-Reference.com ’ s Simple Rating System , San Francisco is better than its 5-6 record ( even if backup QB Nick Mullens has proven himself to be nothing if not mediocre ) .
And if nothing else , it should be interesting to watch the Niners play “ host ” in their improvised setup at Arizona ’ s State Farm Stadium .
On the other side , Buffalo is coming off a Week 12 outing typical of its 2020 season : inconsistent , but good enough to win .
The 49ers should pose @ @ @ @ @ @ @ did , however ; the big matchup is Buffalo QB Josh Allen against San Francisco ’ s defense , which ranks 11th in EPA .
A win for the Bills would all but clinch a playoff spot , while the Niners could bring their postseason hopes up to 41 percent ( despite their stacked division ) with the victory .
Elo gives Buffalo a slim edge here , 54 percent to 46 percent .
Elo ’ s spread : Buffalo -1

Now is not exactly a great time to be Philadelphia Eagles QB Carson Wentz. The former MVP candidate played miserably in Monday night’s loss to the Seattle Seahawks, going 22-for-41 with 157 yards (3.8 yards per attempt), one touchdown, one interception and a 60.7 passer rating in the first 58 minutes of the game before padding his stats with a totally meaningless garbage-time TD pass. According to our QB Elo metric, it was Wentz’s ninth below-average performance in 11 starts so far this season and his fourth in a row. (The Eagles actually won one of those four, but only because Dallas QB Ben DiNucci was equally bad). According to schedule-adjusted expected points added (EPA) per game, Philadelphia has had the NFL’s third-worst passing offense of 2020 — only the Jets and Broncos are worse — which is a big reason that the Eagles’ playoff chances are down to 23 percent despite playing in possibly the worst division in football history.
How did a quarterback who was the toast of the league in 2017, starting the majority of games for the team that eventually won the Super Bowl, hit rock bottom like this? In truth, Wentz’s struggles have been building for a while now. Aside from a brief surge late last season, his QB Elo rating (relative to an average starter) has very steadily dropped from its peak in November 2018:
Wentz’s decline has accelerated in 2020, though. His Total Quarterback Rating (QBR) has fallen from 62.8 (11th-best in football) in 2019 to 49.6 (27th) this season. On a per-game basis, he is staring at new career-worst marks in passing yards (231.0), yards per attempt (6.0), interceptions (1.4), sacks (4.2) and completion percentage (58.1 percent). In passer rating, Wentz’s decline over the previous three seasons — from 98.3 for the 2017-2019 seasons to 73.4 this year — is one of the five biggest drop-offs suffered by any NFL QB since 1950:
Some alarming stats on #Eagles QB Carson Wentz, via @NFLResearch… including having one of the biggest dropoffs in NFL history compared to his passer ratings from the previous 3 years pic.twitter.com/grIH7nZJ8G — Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) December 1, 2020
In some ways, Wentz’s descent mirrors the overall deterioration of the Eagles’ roster since Super Bowl LII. A team that was once overflowing with talent — built strong from the trenches out — is now wrecked with injuries, featuring one of the worst offensive lines in the league, an inexperienced receiving corps and one of the league’s least cost-effective rosters.
So, no, Wentz doesn’t have much to work with. And coach Doug Pederson’s play-calling hasn’t always put Wentz in a position to succeed. But as analyst and YouTuber Brett Kollmann points out in his breakdown of Wentz, this has also fed into some of the quarterback’s worst impulses. Specifically, Wentz has tended to play entirely too much “hero ball” this season: According to NFL Next Gen Stats, he’s forced 18.5 percent of his passes into tight coverage — defined as throws where the receiver had less than a yard of separation when the pass arrives — which is the fifth-highest share of any qualified QB in 2020, and he’s completing only 37.2 percent of those passes (well below the league-average of 65.4 percent on all throws). Overall, Wentz has attempted the league’s fourth-most-difficult collection of throws according to Next Gen Stats, with an expected completion rate of just 61.8 percent.
Unlike Green Bay’s Aaron Rodgers, who also attempts difficult throws but completes more of them than he “should,” Wentz is actually completing far fewer passes than he ought to — even after adjusting for their difficulty. By Next Gen Stats’ estimation, Wentz’s completion percentage is 3.7 points lower than we would expect based on the characteristics of his throws alone, the third-biggest shortfall in the NFL. Because of his poor mechanics, which hurt accuracy — nearly 29 percent of Wentz’s throws have been off-target — and even worse decision-making, Wentz has morphed from one of the NFL’s most promising young QBs to one of the worst QBs in the league, full stop.
But because of how his contract is structured, the Eagles essentially have no choice but to push forward with Wentz leading the way. Philly would face a massive dead-cap penalty if Wentz gets cut or traded in 2021, which might be why Pederson seems dead-set against expanding rookie backup Jalen Hurts’s playing time despite Wentz’s struggles. Instead, the team is stuck trying to figure out how to maximize Wentz’s talent while reducing some of the terrible mistakes that have plagued the majority of his 2020 season, particularly in recent weeks.
As we mentioned earlier, the Eagles still have a 23 percent chance to make the playoffs — which is simultaneously disappointing (given the epic weakness of the NFC East) and much higher than a 3-7-1 team has any right to expect. Their remaining schedule isn’t exactly easy, though it’s roughly comparable to those of Washington and the New York Giants. (The Cowboys actually have by far the easiest remaining schedule of any NFC East team, according to their opponents’ average opposing Elo rating, though they are probably also the worst NFC East team.) Despite Wentz’s struggles, Philadelphia can still salvage its season. But his historic regression has helped turn what could have been a cakewalk into a tough battle down the stretch.
FiveThirtyEight’s NFL Elo ratings How each team ranks through Week 12 of the 2020 season, according to our quarterback-adjusted predictions Chance To … Rk Team Starting QB QB Rk* Elo Rating Proj. Wins Make Playoffs Win Div. Win SB 1 Chiefs Mahomes 1 1762 13.9 >99% >99% 27% 2 Steelers R’lisberger 5 1701 14.8 >99 >99 17 3 Packers Rodgers 2 1640 11.7 99 97 9 4 Seahawks Wilson 6 1607 11.5 99 68 5 5 Titans Tannehill 9 1606 11.3 97 87 3 6 Bills Allen 8 1599 10.9 93 84 3 7 Bucs Brady 10 1585 9.7 77 2 2 8 Rams Goff 15 1573 10.1 89 27 2 9 Colts Rivers 16 1567 9.9 55 13 1 10 Vikings Cousins 14 1535 7.7 30 1 <1 11 Browns Mayfield 24 1534 10.5 79 <1 1 12 49ers Mullens 28 1530 7.8 28 1 1 13 Dolphins Tagovailoa✚ 25 1522 9.3 48 13 <1 14 Saints Hill 31 1519 12.2 >99 98 25 15 Ravens Jackson✚ 7 1518 9.8 68 <1 2 16 Raiders Carr 13 1503 8.9 45 <1 <1 17 Patriots Newton✚ 19 1500 7.6 13 3 <1 18 Cardinals Murray✚ 4 1498 8.6 51 4 1 19 Texans Watson 3 1496 6.5 2 1 <1 20 Falcons Ryan 17 1492 5.9 2 <1 <1 21 Bears Trubisky 20 1479 7.6 24 2 <1 22 Panthers Bridgewater 12 1459 5.5 <1 <1 <1 23 Broncos Lock 29 1459 5.9 <1 <1 <1 24 Wash. Smith 21 1438 5.8 29 29 <1 25 Chargers Herbert 11 1435 4.9 <1 <1 <1 26 Eagles Wentz 26 1413 5.4 23 23 <1 27 Giants McCoy 23 1397 5.9 39 39 <1 28 Lions Stafford 18 1339 5.1 1 <1 <1 29 Cowboys Dalton 27 1338 4.9 10 10 <1 30 Jaguars Glennon 22 1292 1.9 <1 <1 <1 31 Jets Darnold 30 1268 0.9 <1 <1 <1 32 Bengals Allen 32 1259 3.5 <1 <1 <1 *Ranking among Week 13 starters, according to our QB Elo ratings. ✚ Starter is currently injured and may not play. †Starter could be replaced for performance reasons. Simulations as of Dec. 3, 2020. Source: ESPN
Looking ahead: Week 13 doesn’t offer much in the way of true blockbuster contests, but the game that best mixes good, evenly matched teams is probably Bills-49ers — the later of two Monday Night Football games next week. San Francisco had been struggling mightily since regular starter Jimmy Garoppolo was lost in Week 8, but the Niners pulled out a surprising road win against the Rams on Sunday to salvage some chance at the playoffs. Ranking 13th in both schedule-adjusted EPA and Pro-Football-Reference.com’s Simple Rating System, San Francisco is better than its 5-6 record (even if backup QB Nick Mullens has proven himself to be nothing if not mediocre). And if nothing else, it should be interesting to watch the Niners play “host” in their improvised setup at Arizona’s State Farm Stadium. On the other side, Buffalo is coming off a Week 12 outing typical of its 2020 season: inconsistent, but good enough to win. The 49ers should pose more of a challenge than the Chargers did, however; the big matchup is Buffalo QB Josh Allen against San Francisco’s defense, which ranks 11th in EPA. A win for the Bills would all but clinch a playoff spot, while the Niners could bring their postseason hopes up to 41 percent (despite their stacked division) with the victory. Elo gives Buffalo a slim edge here, 54 percent to 46 percent. Elo’s spread: Buffalo -1
Check out our latest NFL predictions.