fivethirthyeight--2020-10-12--NFL Week 5 Upsets Were Overshadowed By Dak Prescott’s Awful Injury

sara.ziegler ( Sara Ziegler , sports editor ) : The action was wild and weird in Week 5 — and that was before this week ’ s rare Tuesday night game .
Russell Wilson and the Seattle Seahawks toyed with the Minnesota Vikings before finally finishing them off , the Las Vegas Raiders used a brilliant second half to upset the Kansas City Chiefs , and the Miami Dolphins thrashed the San Francisco 49ers , who benched newly returned quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo after two first-half interceptions .
But the biggest news of Sunday was the brutal injury to Dallas quarterback @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in the third quarter of the Cowboys ’ game against the New York Giants .
This kind of an injury is obviously terrible whenever it happens , but Dak was in the middle of an all-world season .
neil ( Neil Paine , senior sportswriter ) : Just awful .
I feel so horrible for Dak .
Salfino ( Michael Salfino , FiveThirtyEight contributor ) : Dak was not playing as well as his stats , which is not really an insult given his stats were unreal .
But he seemed a lock @ @ @ @ @ @ @ learn again there are no locks in football .
We also thought it was going to be a lock that he signed long-term with Dallas , and now there ’ s a chance at least that he exited the field on Sunday for the last time as a Cowboy .
I thought he showed a lot of courage in holding it together as well as he did given the injury .
The medical experts thankfully do seem optimistic of a full recovery , which seems somewhat surprising given the damage .
neil : @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s stats were in garbage time or not , only three seasons saw a guy put up more yards through the first five games : Kurt Warner in 2000 , Peyton Manning in 2013 and Tom Brady in 2011. joshua.hermsmeyer ( Josh Hermsmeyer , NFL analyst ) : I got frustrated last night by a comment made by Tony Dungy .
He mentioned on Football Night in America that losing Dak might be a “ blessing in disguise.
” Putting aside that an injury could be a blessing , his rationale was @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the Dallas defense .
He ’ s got it all backward .
The passing game kept Dallas in these high-scoring contexts .
Just shocking “ analysis.
” Salfino : Dallas ’ s defense is clearly beyond salvation .
The Giants had not scored a touchdown in three weeks .
sara.ziegler : And they could certainly still win the NFC East , even though they are terrible .
neil : The Cowboys are lucky they have a backup as good as Andy Dalton , at least .
Salfino : I agree about Dalton .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ , in my opinion .
I still expect the Dallas offense to be very productive .
But it loses something , and it can ’ t afford to lose anything .
neil : True .
But Sara ’ s right — we still give Dallas a 35 percent chance to make the playoffs !
Salfino : It ’ s crazy how bad the NFC East is .
Is Philly far behind in playoff probability , Neil ?
neil : They ’ re actually AHEAD , lol .
Even after the loss on Sunday @ @ @ @ @ @ @ odds went up significantly on a day they lost .
sara.ziegler : Someone is gon na have to win , and it ’ s not going to be pretty .
Salfino : Philly ’ s defense did not look as bad as the score indicated and their offense was solid .
The Eagles were beaten by one guy that there is not much tape on .
There ’ s tape now !
neil : That is destined to forever be known as The Chase Claypool Game .
Salfino : Claypool pulled a Gale @ @ @ @ @ @ @ TDs , too , if not for an offensive pass interference ( he maybe stepped out of bounds , too ) .
The Steelers should give classes in drafting wide receivers .
sara.ziegler : Also , since last we talked , two coaches lost their jobs .
We saw the Bill O ’ Brien news coming — and in their first game under interim coach Romeo Crennel , the Houston Texans picked up a win .
( Against the hapless Jaguars , but still . )
Now Dan Quinn is out in Atlanta @ @ @ @ @ @ @ one , right ?
joshua.hermsmeyer : It surprises me simply because I would have bet Adam Gase of the Jets would go before Quinn .
Or even Matt Patricia of the Lions !
neil : Quinn couldn ’ t overcome the specter of all those collapses , I think .
Salfino : Gase is there still because he basically hired the GM .
Plus the Jets don ’ t even give the GM firing power .
Quinn deserved to go though .
He ’ s a defensive coach who could never figure out @ @ @ @ @ @ @ more deserving than O ’ Brien , who was also deserving .
joshua.hermsmeyer : I would think proving you can take a team to the Super Bowl buys you more time than a guy like Gase or Patricia in a sane and rational league , but here we are .
Salfino : I felt like Kyle Shanahan took the Falcons to the Super Bowl .
neil : Maybe it was more surprising that Falcons general manager Thomas Dimitroff also got the ax simultaneously .
If you are going to make a move , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and HC at the same time .
sara.ziegler : That seems like the smart thing to do , and yet it ’ s not how it works so often .
Salfino : We did this article on how Dimitroff worships at the altar of the first-round pick .
Sort of bizarre , I felt .
Who cares where guys are drafted after their rookie year ?
Josh , do you think the GM needs to be over the coach ?
I think these teams like the Jets who have dual reporting are just @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Mike , I think they need to be partners .
At the end of the day , the owner is ultimately in charge , or some team president .
At least that ’ s how I would run the organization .
I also want to put on the record that as much as he seemed to give off the impression that he was an “ analytics ” guy , Dimitroff really was not .
Salfino : That ’ s a problem in sports now .
You have to at least signal that you @ @ @ @ @ @ @ even if you despise it .
I guess that ’ s progress ?
joshua.hermsmeyer : Depends on who ’ s doing the hiring .
neil : We ’ ve chased the anti-analytics types into the closet now .
joshua.hermsmeyer : ( points to Dungy ’ s comments ) Not all of them !
neil : Hah , well , Dungy isn ’ t trying to get hired by a team .
Salfino : And then there was Rex Ryan killing the Vikings for going for it on fourth-and-1 .
( Sorry , Sara @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the kind of play that always worries me .
It was the right call , but because it didn ’ t work out , I worry that a coach will shy away from doing it again .
Especially with Rex Ryan types disparaging it !
joshua.hermsmeyer : So that call was super close .
Salfino : I think going for it was the right call , but you have to sneak there .
joshua.hermsmeyer : There ’ s a strong case to be made that you kick there , even .
Seven points @ @ @ @ @ @ @ game , it ’ s true , but there is a huge difference between them .
Salfino : Against most QBs , sure .
But 8 points seems easy for Seattle because Russell Wilson seems designed for 2-point conversions .
Though going into the game , the Seahawks were 5-of-8 , including the playoffs , over the past three years .
( The actual king of the two-pointer in the period ?
Aaron Rodgers and the Packers , who are 7-of-9 . )
neil : Either way , your defense needed a stop @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
sara.ziegler : As a Vikings fan , I wanted them to go for it there because of my very real fear of Russell Wilson ’ s ability .
Also as a Vikings fan , I was pretty sure they would blow it one way or another .
Salfino : I would have gone for it .
Remember , they ran for 200 yards or whatever .
That game context is important .
They were dominating .
joshua.hermsmeyer : I mean , I love models , but how many weeks are we going @ @ @ @ @ @ @ win when the win probability was 2 percent before we kind of admit they ’ re all pretty bad and wrong ?
neil : They need to be adjusted for 2020 defense .
Which is to say : no defense .
Salfino : These 2 percent things happen way more than 2 percent .
At least in 2020. sara.ziegler : Look , I don ’ t care if the Vikings are 99 percent to win a game — I still won ’ t believe it until about 10 minutes after the game is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the yard and it ’ s 100 percent you win .
That ’ s why it to me was the right call .
sara.ziegler : That is certainly in his repertoire !
sara.ziegler : All right , let ’ s move on to the game I found most shocking : The Raiders ’ dismantling of the Chiefs .
Did this one surprise you guys ?
Salfino : The Raiders beat the Chiefs at their own game .
That ’ s what shocked me .
neil : Derek Carr is no joke !
22-for-31 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a 92.1 Total QBR .
joshua.hermsmeyer : I wasn ’ t shocked at the Raiders game — that ’ s been Patrick Mahomes ’ s and the Chiefs ’ offense most of the year .
It ’ s the Baltimore game that ’ s been the anomaly .
Salfino : Carr looked like Daryle Lamonica out there .
sara.ziegler : After Carr ’ s early interception , I thought this game was going to go the way Raiders-Chiefs games usually go .
But he turned it around quickly .
I guess , Josh @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to Mahomes being able to rescue anything : a broken play , a lifeless offense , etc .
Salfino : Ruggs is such a Raider .
I remember the signs at the old Oakland Coliseum when I was a kid with Cliff Branch : Speed Kills .
neil : When K.C .
drew within 8 , everyone had a feeling they would pull out yet another comeback .
So that was the shock , that Vegas averted that .
joshua.hermsmeyer : It ’ s interesting that we tend to assign so much weight @ @ @ @ @ @ @ known for check-downs .
But when a guy who throws shallow a lot finally gets a speedster — Alex Smith and Tyreek Hill come to mind — QBs suddenly find the ability to throw the long ball !
Salfino : Or throw it a lot better : Josh Allen now with Stefon Diggs .
Salfino : I think in being correct about fungible running backs ( Mike Davis pretty much has become Christian McCaffrey ) , we probably have underrated receivers .
I know the market values them much more highly but teams @ @ @ @ @ @ @ money to them — and maybe they should .
joshua.hermsmeyer : Can ’ t go wrong investing in the passing game .
Part of that is the O-line , and I think the line is a big part of the Chiefs ’ offensive struggles .
Currently the Chiefs sit at 14th in pass block win rate , according to ESPN .
Salfino : And they lost guard Kelechi Osemele for the year , it looks like .
Moving on to the other shocking outcome ( to me , at least ) : Miami @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a double take when I saw that score .
Salfino : Speaking of Iowa , with C.J .
Beathard .
I do feel that Jimmy Garoppolo was too hurt to play well .
He just could not get any power off his back leg .
sara.ziegler : Point of fact : I was NOT speaking of Iowa .
Salfino : Hahaha , Sara .
I know it ’ s Iowa State vs. Iowa , but they are in the same state .
joshua.hermsmeyer : People seem to be coming for Kyle Shanahan ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ at least some beat writers on Twitter are displeased — but SF has had terrible injury luck this year .
Salfino : But Jimmy G. is no franchise QB , I think we all can agree .
If Shanahan were fired , he ’ d be hired in five seconds .
SF ’ s problem is they built a defense to win on personnel and not scheme , and now they don ’ t have personnel .
joshua.hermsmeyer : Mike , that ’ s a decent point , but I think it ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is supposed to not give up big plays schematically , and it needs players on the D-line to really be great .
But their practice squad corner on Sunday looked absolutely lost , and Ryan Fitzpatrick just roasted him over and over .
neil : Our model has infamously never thought much of Jimmy .
But in this case , it does seem like the injury is to blame .
sara.ziegler : Are the Dolphins good ?
I honestly can ’ t tell .
neil : We WARNED you about that FitzMagic last @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the Dolphins is that their success now is setting back the program .
You can ’ t waste a year of a rookie QB deal .
And Tua Tagovailoa needs to play — I think that ’ s even more true given how Miami passed on Justin Hebert , who looks like Dan Marino 2.0. neil : Maybe the Phins are actually decent though !
Good pass D , good special teams .
Fitzy putting up numbers… Salfino : Well , let them be decent with Tua rather than with the graybeard who @ @ @ @ @ @ @ next Miami contender .
Fitzpatrick is like the NFL mascot .
Did you guys know he went to Harvard ?
neil : But would they be decent with Tua ?
That ’ s the question .
Salfino : Yes , the question they have to answer now .
Look , we all love rookie QBs .
But traditionally they struggle , even if some are doing better sooner nowadays .
joshua.hermsmeyer : So why not get that over with ?
joshua.hermsmeyer : The only thing I can think of is that after losing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ locker room somehow .
Salfino : That locker room is locked in .
Brian Flores has got that .
This team always plays hard .
Plus we all know that Fitz is not actually good .
We just can ’ t admit it .
neil : He is either terrible or GREAT .
And nothing in between .
joshua.hermsmeyer : He ’ s fun , and maybe that ’ s more important .
Salfino : This is the No Fun League , Josh .
Salfino : I can ’ t believe how soft @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , one last game to talk about : Let ’ s cast our minds back to Thursday , when the Bears beat the Bucs .
Did Tom Brady actually lose track of the downs at the end of that game ?
joshua.hermsmeyer : You mean after chewing everybody ’ s ass on the team for being incompetent ?
That guy would forget which down it is at the crucial moment of the game ?
Could never be Tom .
neil : They both said he knew it was fourth down .
But anyone @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ t .
Salfino : Maybe he was indicating how many Beatles there were .
Salfino : I prefer the guitar on “ Let It Be ” tbh .
I think it ’ s so 2020 that we ’ re being lied to about what we all saw with our own eyes .
Why can ’ t they admit it ?
The Legend of Tahm !
You can tell from the throw that Brady did not think it was do or die .
neil : They do say memory starts to go quickly @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that the Grits lady ?
Salfino : It ’ s the woman who said she saw them 40 feet away or whatever without her glasses .
joshua.hermsmeyer : I thought you were making a grit joke , and was here for it .
sara.ziegler : I should have known things would spiral out of control when I brought up Father Time .

sara.ziegler (Sara Ziegler, sports editor): The action was wild and weird in Week 5 — and that was before this week’s rare Tuesday night game. Russell Wilson and the Seattle Seahawks toyed with the Minnesota Vikings before finally finishing them off, the Las Vegas Raiders used a brilliant second half to upset the Kansas City Chiefs, and the Miami Dolphins thrashed the San Francisco 49ers, who benched newly returned quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo after two first-half interceptions.
But the biggest news of Sunday was the brutal injury to Dallas quarterback Dak Prescott, who broke his ankle in the third quarter of the Cowboys’ game against the New York Giants. This kind of an injury is obviously terrible whenever it happens, but Dak was in the middle of an all-world season.
neil (Neil Paine, senior sportswriter): Just awful. I feel so horrible for Dak.
Salfino (Michael Salfino, FiveThirtyEight contributor): Dak was not playing as well as his stats, which is not really an insult given his stats were unreal. But he seemed a lock to have a record-breaking season. We learn again there are no locks in football. We also thought it was going to be a lock that he signed long-term with Dallas, and now there’s a chance at least that he exited the field on Sunday for the last time as a Cowboy. I thought he showed a lot of courage in holding it together as well as he did given the injury.
The medical experts thankfully do seem optimistic of a full recovery, which seems somewhat surprising given the damage.
neil: And regardless of whether we think Dak’s stats were in garbage time or not, only three seasons saw a guy put up more yards through the first five games: Kurt Warner in 2000, Peyton Manning in 2013 and Tom Brady in 2011.
Salfino: 6,000 yards seemed plausibly in jeopardy.
joshua.hermsmeyer (Josh Hermsmeyer, NFL analyst): I got frustrated last night by a comment made by Tony Dungy. He mentioned on Football Night in America that losing Dak might be a “blessing in disguise.” Putting aside that an injury could be a blessing, his rationale was that running the ball will somehow help the Dallas defense. He’s got it all backward. The passing game kept Dallas in these high-scoring contexts. Just shocking “analysis.”
Salfino: Dallas’s defense is clearly beyond salvation. The Giants had not scored a touchdown in three weeks.
sara.ziegler: And they could certainly still win the NFC East, even though they are terrible.
neil: The Cowboys are lucky they have a backup as good as Andy Dalton, at least.
Salfino: I agree about Dalton. He’s in the average bucket, in my opinion. I still expect the Dallas offense to be very productive. But it loses something, and it can’t afford to lose anything.
neil: True. But Sara’s right — we still give Dallas a 35 percent chance to make the playoffs!
Salfino: It’s crazy how bad the NFC East is. Is Philly far behind in playoff probability, Neil?
neil: They’re actually AHEAD, lol. Even after the loss on Sunday.
joshua.hermsmeyer: 48 percent.
neil: The Eagles’ playoff odds went up significantly on a day they lost.
sara.ziegler: Someone is gonna have to win, and it’s not going to be pretty.
Salfino: Philly’s defense did not look as bad as the score indicated and their offense was solid. The Eagles were beaten by one guy that there is not much tape on. There’s tape now!
neil: That is destined to forever be known as The Chase Claypool Game.
Salfino: Claypool pulled a Gale Sayers. It could have been five TDs, too, if not for an offensive pass interference (he maybe stepped out of bounds, too). The Steelers should give classes in drafting wide receivers.
sara.ziegler: Also, since last we talked, two coaches lost their jobs. We saw the Bill O’Brien news coming — and in their first game under interim coach Romeo Crennel, the Houston Texans picked up a win. (Against the hapless Jaguars, but still.) Now Dan Quinn is out in Atlanta as well. That firing surprises no one, right?
joshua.hermsmeyer: It surprises me simply because I would have bet Adam Gase of the Jets would go before Quinn. Or even Matt Patricia of the Lions!
neil: Quinn couldn’t overcome the specter of all those collapses, I think.
Salfino: Gase is there still because he basically hired the GM. Plus the Jets don’t even give the GM firing power. Quinn deserved to go though. He’s a defensive coach who could never figure out the defense.
I think Quinn was more deserving than O’Brien, who was also deserving.
joshua.hermsmeyer: I would think proving you can take a team to the Super Bowl buys you more time than a guy like Gase or Patricia in a sane and rational league, but here we are.
Salfino: I felt like Kyle Shanahan took the Falcons to the Super Bowl.
neil: Maybe it was more surprising that Falcons general manager Thomas Dimitroff also got the ax simultaneously.
joshua.hermsmeyer: That part I agree with.
If you are going to make a move, it needs to be both the GM and HC at the same time.
sara.ziegler: That seems like the smart thing to do, and yet it’s not how it works so often.
Salfino: We did this article on how Dimitroff worships at the altar of the first-round pick. Sort of bizarre, I felt. Who cares where guys are drafted after their rookie year?
Josh, do you think the GM needs to be over the coach? I think these teams like the Jets who have dual reporting are just the worst, organizationally.
joshua.hermsmeyer: Mike, I think they need to be partners. At the end of the day, the owner is ultimately in charge, or some team president. At least that’s how I would run the organization.
I also want to put on the record that as much as he seemed to give off the impression that he was an “analytics” guy, Dimitroff really was not.
Salfino: That’s a problem in sports now. You have to at least signal that you’re an “analytics” guy even if you despise it. I guess that’s progress?
joshua.hermsmeyer: Depends on who’s doing the hiring.
neil: We’ve chased the anti-analytics types into the closet now.
joshua.hermsmeyer: (points to Dungy’s comments) Not all of them!
sara.ziegler: LOL
neil: Hah, well, Dungy isn’t trying to get hired by a team.
Salfino: And then there was Rex Ryan killing the Vikings for going for it on fourth-and-1. (Sorry, Sara.)
sara.ziegler: That’s the kind of play that always worries me. It was the right call, but because it didn’t work out, I worry that a coach will shy away from doing it again.
Especially with Rex Ryan types disparaging it!
joshua.hermsmeyer: So that call was super close.
Salfino: I think going for it was the right call, but you have to sneak there.
joshua.hermsmeyer: There’s a strong case to be made that you kick there, even. Seven points and 8 points are both a one-score game, it’s true, but there is a huge difference between them.
Salfino: Against most QBs, sure. But 8 points seems easy for Seattle because Russell Wilson seems designed for 2-point conversions. Though going into the game, the Seahawks were 5-of-8, including the playoffs, over the past three years. (The actual king of the two-pointer in the period? Aaron Rodgers and the Packers, who are 7-of-9.)
sara.ziegler:
Re: Mike Zimmer's 4th-and-1 decision at the 2-minute warning, ESPN's win probability model had the choice as about a wash. The Vikings had a 98% chance to win by going for it, and would have had a 97.8% chance to win had they elected to attempt a field goal. — Courtney Cronin (@CourtneyRCronin) October 12, 2020
neil: Either way, your defense needed a stop. And it didn’t happen.
sara.ziegler: As a Vikings fan, I wanted them to go for it there because of my very real fear of Russell Wilson’s ability. Also as a Vikings fan, I was pretty sure they would blow it one way or another.
Salfino: I would have gone for it. Remember, they ran for 200 yards or whatever. That game context is important. They were dominating.
joshua.hermsmeyer: I mean, I love models, but how many weeks are we going to have a team come back and win when the win probability was 2 percent before we kind of admit they’re all pretty bad and wrong?
Salfino: Fact check: True.
sara.ziegler: LOLOL
neil: They need to be adjusted for 2020 defense.
Which is to say: no defense.
Salfino: These 2 percent things happen way more than 2 percent. At least in 2020.
sara.ziegler: Look, I don’t care if the Vikings are 99 percent to win a game — I still won’t believe it until about 10 minutes after the game is over.
Salfino: See, get the yard and it’s 100 percent you win. That’s why it to me was the right call.
joshua.hermsmeyer: Kirk could fumble it.
Just sayin’!
sara.ziegler: That is certainly in his repertoire!
neil: Kirk Pisarcik.
sara.ziegler: All right, let’s move on to the game I found most shocking: The Raiders’ dismantling of the Chiefs. Did this one surprise you guys?
Salfino: The Raiders beat the Chiefs at their own game. That’s what shocked me.
neil: Derek Carr is no joke! 22-for-31, 347 yards, three TDs and a 92.1 Total QBR.
joshua.hermsmeyer: I wasn’t shocked at the Raiders game — that’s been Patrick Mahomes’s and the Chiefs’ offense most of the year. It’s the Baltimore game that’s been the anomaly.
Salfino: Carr looked like Daryle Lamonica out there.
sara.ziegler: After Carr’s early interception, I thought this game was going to go the way Raiders-Chiefs games usually go. But he turned it around quickly.
I guess, Josh, that I’ve gotten used to Mahomes being able to rescue anything: a broken play, a lifeless offense, etc.
Salfino: Ruggs is such a Raider. I remember the signs at the old Oakland Coliseum when I was a kid with Cliff Branch: Speed Kills.
neil: When K.C. drew within 8, everyone had a feeling they would pull out yet another comeback. So that was the shock, that Vegas averted that.
joshua.hermsmeyer: It’s interesting that we tend to assign so much weight to the QB when an offense is known for check-downs. But when a guy who throws shallow a lot finally gets a speedster — Alex Smith and Tyreek Hill come to mind — QBs suddenly find the ability to throw the long ball!
Salfino: Or throw it a lot better: Josh Allen now with Stefon Diggs.
joshua.hermsmeyer: Having an open receiver helps a QB, I’m told.
Salfino: I think in being correct about fungible running backs (Mike Davis pretty much has become Christian McCaffrey), we probably have underrated receivers. I know the market values them much more highly but teams don’t want to pay big money to them — and maybe they should.
joshua.hermsmeyer: Can’t go wrong investing in the passing game. Part of that is the O-line, and I think the line is a big part of the Chiefs’ offensive struggles. Currently the Chiefs sit at 14th in pass block win rate, according to ESPN.
Salfino: And they lost guard Kelechi Osemele for the year, it looks like.
sara.ziegler: 😢 for the Iowa Stater.
Moving on to the other shocking outcome (to me, at least): Miami over San Francisco. I definitely did a double take when I saw that score.
Salfino: Speaking of Iowa, with C.J. Beathard. I do feel that Jimmy Garoppolo was too hurt to play well. He just could not get any power off his back leg.
sara.ziegler: Point of fact: I was NOT speaking of Iowa.
Salfino: Hahaha, Sara. I know it’s Iowa State vs. Iowa, but they are in the same state.
sara.ziegler: 🤣
joshua.hermsmeyer: People seem to be coming for Kyle Shanahan’s head in San Francisco — or at least some beat writers on Twitter are displeased — but SF has had terrible injury luck this year.
Salfino: But Jimmy G. is no franchise QB, I think we all can agree.
Jimmy G. = Poor man’s Kirk Cousins.
If Shanahan were fired, he’d be hired in five seconds. SF’s problem is they built a defense to win on personnel and not scheme, and now they don’t have personnel.
joshua.hermsmeyer: Mike, that’s a decent point, but I think it’s only partially true. The defense is supposed to not give up big plays schematically, and it needs players on the D-line to really be great. But their practice squad corner on Sunday looked absolutely lost, and Ryan Fitzpatrick just roasted him over and over.
neil: Our model has infamously never thought much of Jimmy. But in this case, it does seem like the injury is to blame.
sara.ziegler: Are the Dolphins good? I honestly can’t tell.
neil: We WARNED you about that FitzMagic last week!
Salfino: My take on the Dolphins is that their success now is setting back the program. You can’t waste a year of a rookie QB deal. And Tua Tagovailoa needs to play — I think that’s even more true given how Miami passed on Justin Hebert, who looks like Dan Marino 2.0.
neil: Maybe the Phins are actually decent though! Good pass D, good special teams. Fitzy putting up numbers…
Salfino: Well, let them be decent with Tua rather than with the graybeard who has no chance of being on the next Miami contender.
Fitzpatrick is like the NFL mascot. Did you guys know he went to Harvard?
neil: But would they be decent with Tua? That’s the question.
Salfino: Yes, the question they have to answer now.
sara.ziegler: Dying at “the graybeard.”
neil: Emphasis on beard.
Look, we all love rookie QBs. But traditionally they struggle, even if some are doing better sooner nowadays.
joshua.hermsmeyer: So why not get that over with?
Salfino: Exactly, Josh.
joshua.hermsmeyer: The only thing I can think of is that after losing last year they want to keep the locker room somehow.
Losing sucks, it is true.
Salfino: That locker room is locked in. Brian Flores has got that. This team always plays hard. Plus we all know that Fitz is not actually good. We just can’t admit it.
neil: He is either terrible or GREAT. And nothing in between.
joshua.hermsmeyer: He’s fun, and maybe that’s more important.
Salfino: This is the No Fun League, Josh.
sara.ziegler: LOL
Salfino: I can’t believe how soft Josh is getting.
sara.ziegler: OK, one last game to talk about: Let’s cast our minds back to Thursday, when the Bears beat the Bucs. Did Tom Brady actually lose track of the downs at the end of that game?
joshua.hermsmeyer: You mean after chewing everybody’s ass on the team for being incompetent? That guy would forget which down it is at the crucial moment of the game? Could never be Tom.
Salfino: Didn’t Bruce Arians say he didn’t forget?
neil: They both said he knew it was fourth down. But anyone watching that game could tell he didn’t.
joshua.hermsmeyer:
Salfino: Maybe he was indicating how many Beatles there were.
neil: Billy Preston is offended!
Salfino: I prefer the guitar on “Let It Be” tbh.
I think it’s so 2020 that we’re being lied to about what we all saw with our own eyes. Why can’t they admit it? The Legend of Tahm! You can tell from the throw that Brady did not think it was do or die.
neil: They do say memory starts to go quickly with older people.
(Sorry, somebody had to make that joke.)
Salfino:
(First “My Cousin Vinny” reference in NFL chat history — you’re welcome.)
joshua.hermsmeyer: Is that the Grits lady?
Salfino: It’s the woman who said she saw them 40 feet away or whatever without her glasses.
(He held fingers up short of that distance, IIRC.)
joshua.hermsmeyer: I thought you were making a grit joke, and was here for it.
sara.ziegler: I should have known things would spiral out of control when I brought up Father Time.
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fivethirthyeight--2020-10-12--The Battle Lines Are Set After The First Day Of The Amy Coney Barrett Hearings

On Monday morning , Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham kicked off the confirmation hearings for Judge Amy Coney Barrett with a surprisingly bald admission : Pretty much nothing that will be said over the next four days is likely to change anyone ’ s mind .
“ This is probably not about persuading each other unless something really dramatic happens , ” Graham said during his opening statement .
“ All the Republicans will vote yes , all the Democrats will vote no.
” What to watch for during Supreme Court confirmation hearings | FiveThirtyEight He ’ s right , of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Barrett or an unexpected roadblock , Senate Republicans have the votes to confirm her , meaning Barrett is likely to be Justice Amy Coney Barrett before Election Day rolls around .
That doesn ’ t mean the hearings don ’ t matter , though .
They will shape how Barrett ’ s nomination is perceived even if they don ’ t change how the senators vote .
And that ’ s important , because the reputation of the court is at stake .
Americans ’ confidence in the Supreme Court has waned over @ @ @ @ @ @ @ majority of Americans still want the Senate to wait until after the election to vote on Barrett ’ s confirmation ( remember we ’ re just three weeks away from the election at this point , and if confirmed , Barrett will land on the Supreme Court closer to a presidential election than any other nominee in U.S. history ) .
So at this point , it ’ s full steam ahead for Senate Republicans .
Today ’ s hearing mostly set up the battle lines for the rest of the week .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ opening statements about Barrett , giving us some clues about how Republicans and Democrats will make their case for and against Barrett over the next few days .
Democrats homed in on the fact that if confirmed by Election Day , one of Barrett ’ s first cases as a Supreme Court justice will be about the fate of the Affordable Care Act , positioning Barrett ’ s confirmation as a possible referendum on Americans ’ health care protections .
Republicans , meanwhile , focused mostly on her biography — including her role @ @ @ @ @ @ @ her Catholic faith — and her credentials , while offering few specifics about her record as a law professor and judge .
Democrats argued that the fate of the ACA hinges on Barrett If you popped in and out of the confirmation hearing this morning , you ’ d be forgiven for thinking it was a hearing about the ACA — not the confirmation of a Supreme Court justice .
Democratic senator after Democratic senator on the committee emphasized the risk Barrett poses to the ACA during their opening statement , often spotlighting @ @ @ @ @ @ @ come to rely on the health care protections in the law .
“ That ’ s a big reason why Senate Republicans are rushing this process , ” Sen. Kamala Harris said during her remote opening statement .
The Democratic vice presidential candidate added , “ They are trying to get a justice onto the court in time to ensure they can strip away the protections of the Affordable Care Act.
” The Democrats ’ laser-focus on the fate of the ACA makes a certain amount of sense .
One week after the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ yet another challenge to the landmark health care law , and Democrats are now arguing that if Barrett is on the court , it ’ s plausible the law will be overturned .
Barrett publicly criticized Chief Justice John Roberts ’ s 2012 vote to save the ACA in a 2017 law review article , and in the 2012 decision , Roberts was the only conservative justice to side with the liberals .
If Barrett is confirmed , though , she could side with the other four conservative justices and overrule Roberts .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ discussion of Barrett ’ s record on abortion rights — even though both liberals and conservatives generally agree that she ’ s likely to be open to cases restricting or even overturning the constitutional right to abortion .
At this point , Democrats have clearly decided that the threat to the ACA is a stronger argument against Barrett than her track record on abortion — although Barrett will almost certainly get questions about her stance on abortion , among other issues , during questioning on Tuesday and Wednesday .
We ’ re also @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s potential role in deciding election-related cases as soon as she ’ s seated on the court .
Democratic Sen. Richard Blumenthal of Connecticut went as far as to call on her to recuse herself from any case dealing with the election .
Republicans are focusing on her biography and credentials Republicans , meanwhile , tried to turn the tables on Democrats and portray them as partisan actors bent on painting a qualified nominee as a political hack .
They focused very little on the specifics of Barrett ’ s judicial record and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ especially the fact that she is a working mother of seven .
In her opening statement , Sen. Joni Ernst warned that Democrats were trying to “ undermine , coerce and confuse the American people ” and “ undermine ” Barrett .
“ Women all over the world are painfully familiar with this strategy , ” she said .
“ We are all too often perceived and judged based on what someone else needs or wants us to be , not on who we actually are.
” There were also plenty of callbacks @ @ @ @ @ @ @ when she was nominated to the 7th U.S .
Circuit Court of Appeals back in 2017 .
During that hearing , Democrats got a lot of blowback for taking aim at Barrett ’ s affiliation with a very small , conservative Catholic religious community .
Today , Republicans repeatedly accused the Democrats of imposing a religious test on Barrett — even though Democrats did not devote time to discussing her Catholic faith today .
Barrett , though , after sitting silently all day at a table in the hearing room wearing a large @ @ @ @ @ @ @ word .
She took a well-trodden path for would-be Supreme Court justices and positioned herself as a neutral , non-political jurist , declaring in her opening statement , “ The policy decisions and value judgments of government must be made by the political branches elected by and accountable to the people.
” She went on to add that the public should not expect the courts to uphold public opinion , nor should the courts try to do so .
That assertion is likely to be challenged many times over the next two days @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Democrats who are likely to focus on how Barrett , as part of a powerful 6-3 conservative majority , could transform the Supreme Court .

On Monday morning, Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham kicked off the confirmation hearings for Judge Amy Coney Barrett with a surprisingly bald admission: Pretty much nothing that will be said over the next four days is likely to change anyone’s mind. “This is probably not about persuading each other unless something really dramatic happens,” Graham said during his opening statement. “All the Republicans will vote yes, all the Democrats will vote no.”
What to watch for during Supreme Court confirmation hearings | FiveThirtyEight
He’s right, of course. Barring some extraordinary revelation about Barrett or an unexpected roadblock, Senate Republicans have the votes to confirm her, meaning Barrett is likely to be Justice Amy Coney Barrett before Election Day rolls around.
That doesn’t mean the hearings don’t matter, though. They will shape how Barrett’s nomination is perceived even if they don’t change how the senators vote. And that’s important, because the reputation of the court is at stake. Americans’ confidence in the Supreme Court has waned over the past couple decades, and a majority of Americans still want the Senate to wait until after the election to vote on Barrett’s confirmation (remember we’re just three weeks away from the election at this point, and if confirmed, Barrett will land on the Supreme Court closer to a presidential election than any other nominee in U.S. history).
So at this point, it’s full steam ahead for Senate Republicans. Today’s hearing mostly set up the battle lines for the rest of the week. The senators on the Judiciary Committee delivered opening statements about Barrett, giving us some clues about how Republicans and Democrats will make their case for and against Barrett over the next few days. Democrats homed in on the fact that if confirmed by Election Day, one of Barrett’s first cases as a Supreme Court justice will be about the fate of the Affordable Care Act, positioning Barrett’s confirmation as a possible referendum on Americans’ health care protections. Republicans, meanwhile, focused mostly on her biography — including her role as a working mother of seven and her Catholic faith — and her credentials, while offering few specifics about her record as a law professor and judge.
Democrats argued that the fate of the ACA hinges on Barrett
If you popped in and out of the confirmation hearing this morning, you’d be forgiven for thinking it was a hearing about the ACA — not the confirmation of a Supreme Court justice. Democratic senator after Democratic senator on the committee emphasized the risk Barrett poses to the ACA during their opening statement, often spotlighting the stories of ordinary Americans who have come to rely on the health care protections in the law.
“That’s a big reason why Senate Republicans are rushing this process,” Sen. Kamala Harris said during her remote opening statement. The Democratic vice presidential candidate added, “They are trying to get a justice onto the court in time to ensure they can strip away the protections of the Affordable Care Act.”
The Democrats’ laser-focus on the fate of the ACA makes a certain amount of sense. One week after the election, the Supreme Court will hear yet another challenge to the landmark health care law, and Democrats are now arguing that if Barrett is on the court, it’s plausible the law will be overturned. Barrett publicly criticized Chief Justice John Roberts’s 2012 vote to save the ACA in a 2017 law review article, and in the 2012 decision, Roberts was the only conservative justice to side with the liberals. If Barrett is confirmed, though, she could side with the other four conservative justices and overrule Roberts.
Notably, there was not as much discussion of Barrett’s record on abortion rights — even though both liberals and conservatives generally agree that she’s likely to be open to cases restricting or even overturning the constitutional right to abortion. At this point, Democrats have clearly decided that the threat to the ACA is a stronger argument against Barrett than her track record on abortion — although Barrett will almost certainly get questions about her stance on abortion, among other issues, during questioning on Tuesday and Wednesday.
We’re also likely to hear more about Barrett’s potential role in deciding election-related cases as soon as she’s seated on the court. Democratic Sen. Richard Blumenthal of Connecticut went as far as to call on her to recuse herself from any case dealing with the election.
Republicans are focusing on her biography and credentials
Republicans, meanwhile, tried to turn the tables on Democrats and portray them as partisan actors bent on painting a qualified nominee as a political hack. They focused very little on the specifics of Barrett’s judicial record and instead emphasized her biography and credentials, especially the fact that she is a working mother of seven.
In her opening statement, Sen. Joni Ernst warned that Democrats were trying to “undermine, coerce and confuse the American people” and “undermine” Barrett. “Women all over the world are painfully familiar with this strategy,” she said. “We are all too often perceived and judged based on what someone else needs or wants us to be, not on who we actually are.”
There were also plenty of callbacks to Barrett’s Senate confirmation hearing when she was nominated to the 7th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals back in 2017. During that hearing, Democrats got a lot of blowback for taking aim at Barrett’s affiliation with a very small, conservative Catholic religious community. Today, Republicans repeatedly accused the Democrats of imposing a religious test on Barrett — even though Democrats did not devote time to discussing her Catholic faith today.
Barrett, though, after sitting silently all day at a table in the hearing room wearing a large black face mask, got the last word. She took a well-trodden path for would-be Supreme Court justices and positioned herself as a neutral, non-political jurist, declaring in her opening statement, “The policy decisions and value judgments of government must be made by the political branches elected by and accountable to the people.” She went on to add that the public should not expect the courts to uphold public opinion, nor should the courts try to do so. That assertion is likely to be challenged many times over the next two days, as Barrett faces fierce questioning from Democrats who are likely to focus on how Barrett, as part of a powerful 6-3 conservative majority, could transform the Supreme Court.


fivethirthyeight--2020-10-12--Hundreds Of Schools Are Still Using Native Americans As Team Mascots

In the summer of 2020 , public tolerance for companies advertising with racist images was at an all-time low .
Brands including Aunt Jemima , Mrs. Butterworth ’ s and Uncle Ben ’ s all announced plans to change their product imagery and in some cases even their names in reaction to widespread public protests against anti-Black racism .
The world of sports wasn ’ t far behind .
After decades of activism and protest against the Washington NFL team ’ s longtime use of a widely recognized racial slur against Native Americans , change seemed to come swiftly .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ to the media that he would “ NEVER ” — “ use caps , ” he told the reporter — change the moniker , it took less than 24 hours after corporate sponsors threatened to pull out of their deals before the team announced it would “ review ” the name , and 10 days later the team committed to changing it .
Indigenous people have been advocating against the name for years : Amanda Blackhorse , one of the movement ’ s leaders , was among five Native Americans to push for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , a drive that initially won a court battle in 2014 before a Supreme Court ruling in a different case rendered the previous Washington decision moot .
The crux of their argument is simple : Native mascots dehumanize Indigenous people by employing disparaging stereotypes of Native Americans that cause real harm .
This claim has been repeatedly supported by research , and the causes of that harm extend far beyond the Washington football franchise .
Condemning the commercial use of an obvious racial slur is the lowest-hanging fruit .
But are teams ready @ @ @ @ @ @ @ associated behaviors that haven ’ t been so universally criticized ?
Native mascots exist in every level of sports , from high school basketball courts to billion-dollar stadiums .
While high-profile teams like Washington and the Cleveland Indians may come to mind first , most Native American mascots are used in secondary schools .
Although the number has been shrinking , there are currently 1,232 high schools with Native American team names , according to my analysis of data from MascotDB .
That includes 411 Indians and 107 Chiefs or Chieftains , and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the former name of the Washington Football Team .
To arrive at those numbers , I pulled Mascot DB ’ s full list of Native-associated team names and logos and reviewed them all .
I researched any potentially ambiguous team names and weeded out any that did not directly reference Native culture or imagery — for example , teams called the Warriors were excluded unless they also pictured an Indigenous person or use imagery like feathers — and removed any teams that had changed their branding since they were added to Mascot DB @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , are just those that clearly reference Native culture in their name or logo .
High schools are governed locally by districts and states , making oversight difficult and consistent regulations unrealistic .
Although clashes over the future of Native mascots are likely happening at schools in every state , top-level guidance has been minimal .
In my research , I found just four states — California , Maine , Oregon and Wisconsin — that have either laws or department of education policies that to some degree prohibit using Native mascots in public @ @ @ @ @ @ @ possible that this list may soon expand : In reaction to the renewed public interest in Native mascots , proposed legislation could force the removal of these mascots in Illinois and Massachusetts .
Lawmakers have also begun discussions in Nebraska , and Washington .
These regulations vary widely .
Maine ’ s comprehensive law , which was signed by Gov .
Janet Mills in May 2019 , states that public high schools and colleges in Maine “ may not have or adopt a name , symbol or image that depicts or refers to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ custom or tradition and that is used as a mascot , nickname , logo , letterhead or team name of the school.
” Meanwhile , California ’ s 2015 law disallows using the Washington Football Team ’ s former name or logo and bans schools from buying new equipment featuring that branding , but it allows them to continue using existing equipment until it wears out .
Essentially the state is hoping that current uniforms and stadium decorations will be retired in the coming years .
These kinds of policy moves also tend @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , a proposed resolution to remove Native mascots failed by a landslide in the Wisconsin Association of School Boards delegate assembly , with 101 in favor and 218 against .
In Utah , Republican state Rep. Rex P. Shipp introduced a bill that would discourage the removal of names , images and symbols of Native Americans from schools ; it has yet to be voted on .
Similarly , Tennessee passed a bill in 2007 protecting Native mascots .
In reaction to pressure from the Tennessee Commission of Indian Affairs to ban Native @ @ @ @ @ @ @ bill that stated that “ no state agency has the authority to require or to prohibit or impair in any way the right of any public or private institution to continue to honor certain persons or cultures through the use of symbols , names , and mascots.
” Even laws on the books have proven ineffective .
Wisconsin passed a law in 2010 that triggered a review of a school ’ s logo or mascot if a single person filed a complaint that it was offensive , making the state one of the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Native mascots .
Yet in the wake of resistance from one affected high school , former Gov .
Scott Walker signed a new bill in 2013 that substantially weakened the previous review process .
The new law shifted the burden of proof from the school itself to those lodging the complaint , and it required a petition with signatures from the equivalent of 10 percent of the district ’ s school population .
A new effort to ban Native mascots was quashed by the state school board this year .
The case against @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and dried .
Of the 1,232 high school mascots in the Mascot DB , 23 are in use at tribal high schools — those operated or funded by the Bureau of Indian Education .
These schools , which are often on reservations or near Indigenous communities , primarily serve students who identify as Native American .
Their mascots go by many names , including Indians , Apache Chiefs and Braves .
Schools not associated with the Bureau of Indian Education may also have genuine ties to Native culture and community , so the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and use a Native mascot is likely more than those I was able to identify .
For these schools , the conversation around Native mascots is about authentic representation rather than appropriation .
These students and communities are harnessing Native mascots to honor their own identities and heritage .
The traditions that many consider racist when imitated by non-Native athletes and fans take on a new meaning in Indigenous spaces .
Currently , about 2 percent of Native mascots are used at tribal high schools .
Yet the business of allowing exceptions for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ just ask the NCAA .
The governing body of collegiate sports intensified conversations about Native mascots in 2001 , the same year the organization banned states that fly the Confederate flag from hosting national championship events .
After several years of discussion , the NCAA Executive Board voted unanimously that Native mascots must go , declaring that teams with “ hostile and abusive racial/ethnic/national origin mascots , nicknames or imagery ” would be prevented from hosting NCAA championship events and required to use equipment that didn ’ t display that imagery in championship @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 2005 announcement , the NCAA agreed to hear appeals from universities vying to keep their Native mascots .
In a nod to Native sovereignty , the governing body allowed tribes to endorse schools that used the names of their tribes , but it rejected appeals from names using general descriptors like Indians , Redmen and Savages .
In some cases , the NCAA allowed nondiscriminatory monikers to remain as long as all references to Indigenous people and their traditions were removed .
Bradley University kept its Braves name and introduced a non-Native mascot @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ; the College of William & Mary retained “ the Tribe ” as a nickname but stripped a pair of feathers from its imagery and adopted a griffin as a mascot in 2010 .
Five institutions — the Catawba College Catawba Indians , Central Michigan University Chippewas , Florida State Seminoles , Mississippi College Choctaws and University of Utah Utes — successfully appealed the mandate on the basis that their institutions had the support of a local Indigenous tribe .
Yet this policy masks the complex politics of Indian Country .
Histories of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ into question who can speak on behalf of a tribe and its people .
For instance , only a single band of the Seminole tribe — the band that resides in Florida — supports Florida State University ’ s use of the Seminole mascot .
According to the NCAA , one is enough .
For most institutions , there was no path forward .
The University of Illinois was allowed to keep its Fighting Illini moniker , but without the support of the Peoria tribe , it was required to retire its Chief @ @ @ @ @ @ @ top-down policy was effective , if hotly debated .
Schools were given three years to change their mascots , and by the end of that time period , many had done so .
If high schools moved to the same appeal model as the NCAA , the number of schools with a Native mascot would decrease substantially .
If professional sports joined in , the number of national franchises would likely dip to zero .
Rather than follow the NCAA ’ s example or try to get ahead of state legislation on the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on the topic of Native mascots .
While the media has focused on the Washington franchise and its scramble to rebrand itself , the executives in Kansas City are busy polishing their Lombardi Trophy and dodging the inevitable question : Are we next ?
They ’ ve received no public guidance from the NFL on the matter .
But that silence isn ’ t specific to pro football .
Over the past several decades , professional sports leagues have been noticeably quiet as their embattled teams defended the sanctity of Native mascots on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ tradition .
MLB Commissioner Rob Manfred waded deepest into these troubled waters in 2018 when he said the league had “ encouraged dialogue with the Indians organization about the club ’ s use of the Chief Wahoo logo.
” This dialogue eventually ended in the announcement that the racist image would be removed from Cleveland uniforms the following season , although the team would still sell merchandise with the caricature .
On Aug. 20 of this year , the Kansas City Chiefs issued a statement announcing a new set of policies that prohibited @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , including wearing headdresses and face paint that references Native people or culture , and promised a continued partnership with local American Indian organizations .
By the team ’ s own admission , this conversation with Indigenous partners has been going on since 2014 — and prior to its most recent statement , results had been limited .
Although the positive steps taken this summer may seem momentous , professional sports leagues had been relatively stagnant on this issue overall .
Prior to announcement that the Washington Football Team would eliminate Native imagery @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , the NFL and the NHL together had five franchises with Indigenous names and two more that use Native-inspired logos or imagery — the Seattle Seahawks and Vancouver Canucks .
( In addition , the Phoenix Coyotes continue to use their original logo , which has well-recognized Native influences , on home throwback sweaters . )
Each team is navigating relationships with local Native American and First Nations people independently .
While some teams have successfully incorporated Indigenous people into conversations about inclusion and representation , others continue to swim upstream in a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ teams so reluctant to let go of their Native mascots ?
Research has repeatedly shown the mental harm that these icons inflict on Indigenous people , and tribal leaders continue to speak out against teams ’ disrespect and appropriation .
Finally , in 2020 , it seems that broader public opinion might be catching up .
Football fandom , perhaps , has not .
Financial implications are certainly a factor .
But that can cut both ways , as the Washington Football Team ’ s refusal to change its name eventually led its @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for the franchise .
In fact , while economists who studied the financial implications of franchise rebranding have shown that teams may take on additional costs in the first year — including paying lawyers to secure the rights to a new name and logo and changing the branding on merchandise , signage and the stadium itself — they could recoup those deficits in the ensuing seasons .
When the Chiefs secured their first win this season in Arrowhead Stadium in front of crowds limited by the COVID-19 pandemic , headdresses and red face @ @ @ @ @ @ @ gates .
The Arrowhead Chop and pregame beating of the drum were under review , although NBC still prominently featured the former in its prime-time broadcast .
They scored in end zones declaring “ end racism ” in block text next to the Chiefs name and near the arrowhead logos .
In a year when Washington chose to go by its city name rather than choose a new identity , the controversy over the use of Native mascots will continue to weigh on franchises and fans .
As the country celebrates Indigenous Peoples @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and Kansas City , the pressure to change these names continues , with the teams under an even brighter spotlight .

Hundreds Of Schools Are Still Using Native Americans As Team Mascots And though the Washington Football Team abandoned its name, 45 schools have kept the slur.
In the summer of 2020, public tolerance for companies advertising with racist images was at an all-time low. Brands including Aunt Jemima, Mrs. Butterworth’s and Uncle Ben’s all announced plans to change their product imagery and in some cases even their names in reaction to widespread public protests against anti-Black racism. The world of sports wasn’t far behind.
After decades of activism and protest against the Washington NFL team’s longtime use of a widely recognized racial slur against Native Americans, change seemed to come swiftly. While owner Dan Snyder had once declared to the media that he would “NEVER” — “use caps,” he told the reporter — change the moniker, it took less than 24 hours after corporate sponsors threatened to pull out of their deals before the team announced it would “review” the name, and 10 days later the team committed to changing it.
Indigenous people have been advocating against the name for years: Amanda Blackhorse, one of the movement’s leaders, was among five Native Americans to push for the cancelation of Washington’s trademark, a drive that initially won a court battle in 2014 before a Supreme Court ruling in a different case rendered the previous Washington decision moot. The crux of their argument is simple: Native mascots dehumanize Indigenous people by employing disparaging stereotypes of Native Americans that cause real harm. This claim has been repeatedly supported by research, and the causes of that harm extend far beyond the Washington football franchise. Condemning the commercial use of an obvious racial slur is the lowest-hanging fruit. But are teams ready to confront the names, symbols and associated behaviors that haven’t been so universally criticized?
Native mascots exist in every level of sports, from high school basketball courts to billion-dollar stadiums. While high-profile teams like Washington and the Cleveland Indians may come to mind first, most Native American mascots are used in secondary schools. Although the number has been shrinking, there are currently 1,232 high schools with Native American team names, according to my analysis of data from MascotDB. That includes 411 Indians and 107 Chiefs or Chieftains, and there are still 45 schools that bear the former name of the Washington Football Team.
To arrive at those numbers, I pulled Mascot DB’s full list of Native-associated team names and logos and reviewed them all. I researched any potentially ambiguous team names and weeded out any that did not directly reference Native culture or imagery — for example, teams called the Warriors were excluded unless they also pictured an Indigenous person or use imagery like feathers — and removed any teams that had changed their branding since they were added to Mascot DB. The remaining 1,232 schools, then, are just those that clearly reference Native culture in their name or logo.
High schools are governed locally by districts and states, making oversight difficult and consistent regulations unrealistic. Although clashes over the future of Native mascots are likely happening at schools in every state, top-level guidance has been minimal. In my research, I found just four states — California, Maine, Oregon and Wisconsin — that have either laws or department of education policies that to some degree prohibit using Native mascots in public schools. However, it’s possible that this list may soon expand: In reaction to the renewed public interest in Native mascots, proposed legislation could force the removal of these mascots in Illinois and Massachusetts. Lawmakers have also begun discussions in Nebraska, and Washington.
These regulations vary widely. Maine’s comprehensive law, which was signed by Gov. Janet Mills in May 2019, states that public high schools and colleges in Maine “may not have or adopt a name, symbol or image that depicts or refers to a Native American tribe, individual, custom or tradition and that is used as a mascot, nickname, logo, letterhead or team name of the school.” Meanwhile, California’s 2015 law disallows using the Washington Football Team’s former name or logo and bans schools from buying new equipment featuring that branding, but it allows them to continue using existing equipment until it wears out. Essentially the state is hoping that current uniforms and stadium decorations will be retired in the coming years.
These kinds of policy moves also tend to face strong pushback. In January, a proposed resolution to remove Native mascots failed by a landslide in the Wisconsin Association of School Boards delegate assembly, with 101 in favor and 218 against. In Utah, Republican state Rep. Rex P. Shipp introduced a bill that would discourage the removal of names, images and symbols of Native Americans from schools; it has yet to be voted on.
Similarly, Tennessee passed a bill in 2007 protecting Native mascots. In reaction to pressure from the Tennessee Commission of Indian Affairs to ban Native mascots, the state legislature passed a bill that stated that “no state agency has the authority to require or to prohibit or impair in any way the right of any public or private institution to continue to honor certain persons or cultures through the use of symbols, names, and mascots.”
Even laws on the books have proven ineffective. Wisconsin passed a law in 2010 that triggered a review of a school’s logo or mascot if a single person filed a complaint that it was offensive, making the state one of the first to take action to phase out Native mascots. Yet in the wake of resistance from one affected high school, former Gov. Scott Walker signed a new bill in 2013 that substantially weakened the previous review process. The new law shifted the burden of proof from the school itself to those lodging the complaint, and it required a petition with signatures from the equivalent of 10 percent of the district’s school population. A new effort to ban Native mascots was quashed by the state school board this year.
The case against these mascots isn’t always cut and dried. Of the 1,232 high school mascots in the Mascot DB, 23 are in use at tribal high schools — those operated or funded by the Bureau of Indian Education. These schools, which are often on reservations or near Indigenous communities, primarily serve students who identify as Native American. Their mascots go by many names, including Indians, Apache Chiefs and Braves. Schools not associated with the Bureau of Indian Education may also have genuine ties to Native culture and community, so the number of schools who serve Native students and use a Native mascot is likely more than those I was able to identify.
For these schools, the conversation around Native mascots is about authentic representation rather than appropriation. These students and communities are harnessing Native mascots to honor their own identities and heritage. The traditions that many consider racist when imitated by non-Native athletes and fans take on a new meaning in Indigenous spaces. Currently, about 2 percent of Native mascots are used at tribal high schools.
Yet the business of allowing exceptions for schools like these can be tricky — just ask the NCAA. The governing body of collegiate sports intensified conversations about Native mascots in 2001, the same year the organization banned states that fly the Confederate flag from hosting national championship events. After several years of discussion, the NCAA Executive Board voted unanimously that Native mascots must go, declaring that teams with “hostile and abusive racial/ethnic/national origin mascots, nicknames or imagery” would be prevented from hosting NCAA championship events and required to use equipment that didn’t display that imagery in championship games.
Facing intense backlash after the 2005 announcement, the NCAA agreed to hear appeals from universities vying to keep their Native mascots. In a nod to Native sovereignty, the governing body allowed tribes to endorse schools that used the names of their tribes, but it rejected appeals from names using general descriptors like Indians, Redmen and Savages. In some cases, the NCAA allowed nondiscriminatory monikers to remain as long as all references to Indigenous people and their traditions were removed. Bradley University kept its Braves name and introduced a non-Native mascot, Kaboom the Gargoyle, in 2014; the College of William & Mary retained “the Tribe” as a nickname but stripped a pair of feathers from its imagery and adopted a griffin as a mascot in 2010.
Five institutions — the Catawba College Catawba Indians, Central Michigan University Chippewas, Florida State Seminoles, Mississippi College Choctaws and University of Utah Utes — successfully appealed the mandate on the basis that their institutions had the support of a local Indigenous tribe. Yet this policy masks the complex politics of Indian Country. Histories of forced removal and trends toward urbanization call into question who can speak on behalf of a tribe and its people. For instance, only a single band of the Seminole tribe — the band that resides in Florida — supports Florida State University’s use of the Seminole mascot. According to the NCAA, one is enough.
For most institutions, there was no path forward. The University of Illinois was allowed to keep its Fighting Illini moniker, but without the support of the Peoria tribe, it was required to retire its Chief Illiniwek mascot.
The NCAA’s top-down policy was effective, if hotly debated. Schools were given three years to change their mascots, and by the end of that time period, many had done so. If high schools moved to the same appeal model as the NCAA, the number of schools with a Native mascot would decrease substantially. If professional sports joined in, the number of national franchises would likely dip to zero.
Rather than follow the NCAA’s example or try to get ahead of state legislation on the issue, the NFL has stayed silent on the topic of Native mascots. While the media has focused on the Washington franchise and its scramble to rebrand itself, the executives in Kansas City are busy polishing their Lombardi Trophy and dodging the inevitable question: Are we next?
They’ve received no public guidance from the NFL on the matter. But that silence isn’t specific to pro football. Over the past several decades, professional sports leagues have been noticeably quiet as their embattled teams defended the sanctity of Native mascots on the grounds that they are an athletic tradition. MLB Commissioner Rob Manfred waded deepest into these troubled waters in 2018 when he said the league had “encouraged dialogue with the Indians organization about the club’s use of the Chief Wahoo logo.” This dialogue eventually ended in the announcement that the racist image would be removed from Cleveland uniforms the following season, although the team would still sell merchandise with the caricature.
On Aug. 20 of this year, the Kansas City Chiefs issued a statement announcing a new set of policies that prohibited certain fan behaviors and costumes at games, including wearing headdresses and face paint that references Native people or culture, and promised a continued partnership with local American Indian organizations. By the team’s own admission, this conversation with Indigenous partners has been going on since 2014 — and prior to its most recent statement, results had been limited.
Although the positive steps taken this summer may seem momentous, professional sports leagues had been relatively stagnant on this issue overall. Prior to announcement that the Washington Football Team would eliminate Native imagery in its name and logo, MLB, the NFL and the NHL together had five franchises with Indigenous names and two more that use Native-inspired logos or imagery — the Seattle Seahawks and Vancouver Canucks. (In addition, the Phoenix Coyotes continue to use their original logo, which has well-recognized Native influences, on home throwback sweaters.) Each team is navigating relationships with local Native American and First Nations people independently. While some teams have successfully incorporated Indigenous people into conversations about inclusion and representation, others continue to swim upstream in a constant search for endorsement.
Why are teams so reluctant to let go of their Native mascots? Research has repeatedly shown the mental harm that these icons inflict on Indigenous people, and tribal leaders continue to speak out against teams’ disrespect and appropriation. Finally, in 2020, it seems that broader public opinion might be catching up. Football fandom, perhaps, has not.
Financial implications are certainly a factor. But that can cut both ways, as the Washington Football Team’s refusal to change its name eventually led its sponsors to threaten to withdraw financial support for the franchise. In fact, while economists who studied the financial implications of franchise rebranding have shown that teams may take on additional costs in the first year — including paying lawyers to secure the rights to a new name and logo and changing the branding on merchandise, signage and the stadium itself — they could recoup those deficits in the ensuing seasons.
When the Chiefs secured their first win this season in Arrowhead Stadium in front of crowds limited by the COVID-19 pandemic, headdresses and red face paint were no longer allowed past the gates. The Arrowhead Chop and pregame beating of the drum were under review, although NBC still prominently featured the former in its prime-time broadcast. They scored in end zones declaring “end racism” in block text next to the Chiefs name and near the arrowhead logos. In a year when Washington chose to go by its city name rather than choose a new identity, the controversy over the use of Native mascots will continue to weigh on franchises and fans. As the country celebrates Indigenous Peoples Day in cities like Seattle, Chicago and Kansas City, the pressure to change these names continues, with the teams under an even brighter spotlight.


fivethirthyeight--2020-10-12--LeBron And AD Are The Heroes. But The Sum Of This Lakers Club Was More Than Its Superstar Parts.

As the Los Angeles Lakers romped their way Sunday night to a record-tying 17th league title with a 106-93 blowout victory over the Miami Heat , the majority of conversations around their win figured to focus on the superstar combination of LeBron James and Anthony Davis that ultimately returned them to glory .
But while those two will understandably share the brightest spotlight , the totality of this particular Lakers club — and what helped it prevail — was always more than met the eye .
Make no mistake : James and Davis were incredible all season .
And there @ @ @ @ @ @ @ made that James — who previously played with Dwyane Wade , Chris Bosh , Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love — has never had a partner this perfect .
The Big Three in Miami was a terror , but it ’ s easy to forget how out of sync James and Wade were offensively early on , as Bosh took time to settle into a tertiary role after being a No .
1 option in Toronto .
And even in Cleveland , where James got the biggest lift of his career off a clutch @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Cavs sidekicks weren ’ t all that skilled on defense , making it more of a challenge for them to hold the line whenever James had to go to the bench for breathers .
This year , when Davis was asked to hold down the fort without James on the floor in the regular season , the Lakers weren ’ t anything special , getting outscored by 3 points per 100 possessions , per NBA Advanced Stats .
But the big man found a new level in the playoffs , when Los Angeles @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 100 possessions when Davis played as James was sidelined .
The importance of Davis was on display repeatedly , whether on a series-altering game-winner or over a quarter of using his condor-like wingspan to stifle the guy who had just gone off for a 40-point triple-double the game before .
His presence was an enormous factor in Sunday ’ s Game 6 clincher , as Miami often looked reluctant to shoot anywhere near the rim , fearing that Davis might be nearby , ready to swat any close-range tries .
But it would @ @ @ @ @ @ @ was solely about James and Davis .
Frank Vogel , who hoisted a championship trophy in Orlando just two years after being fired by the Magic , did an outstanding job with this group .
Long known for his defensive acumen , Vogel often got fantastic buy-in on that end from James , who , after years of less-than-consistent effort , generally locked down his opponents when it mattered most .
( Davis , of course , was the runner-up for Defensive Player of the Year . )
But even on the offensive @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a game plan designed to blow up Miami ’ s zone — placing either James or Davis in the middle of it , then taking the other man and putting him along the baseline , which forced the Heat to scrap the plan altogether .
After the Lakers ’ disappointing flame-out last season , general manager Rob Pelinka was under pressure to assemble a roster after holding out for , then missing on , Kawhi Leonard .
He didn ’ t bring in a third star , but it ’ s worth noting @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Markieff Morris and Dwight Howard ( ! )
made up just 7 percent of the team ’ s salary cap , while ultimately contributing far more than that to the Lakers ’ championship run .
Howard , acquired after free-agent signee DeMarcus Cousins tore his ACL , was deemed a small risk — if only because of his wishy-washy reputation and the agitation in Laker Land over his first stint .
But his ability on the glass was enormous throughout the NBA Finals against Miami , and he was usually a steadier backup @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ( And to Vogel ’ s credit , he adjusted in Game 6 by playing small and leaving Howard on the bench as a way to space the floor offensively .
This change allowed the Lakers to turn the game into a track meet early , and the Heat were never able to locate their sprinter ’ s spikes . )
Talented as the Lakers are , the offense outside of their supremely talented Top Two was a fair question coming in .
Yes , they could score with the best of them @ @ @ @ @ @ @ it wasn ’ t crazy to wonder where any other high-level ball-handling would come from , or if a lack thereof would place too much of a burden on an aging James .
As they illustrated Sunday , the team feasted and brought opponents to their knees when they couldn ’ t appropriately set their defense , with James throwing transition touchdown after transition touchdown to Davis .
Yet the Lakers ’ half-court offense was mediocre throughout the regular season , having posted slightly below-average efficiency numbers .
They weren ’ t all @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the team endured a notable cold spell to end the regular season , ranking 20th of the 22 bubble teams in offense .
But we had no idea that Kentavious Caldwell-Pope would morph into an elite role player for the second half of the Finals .
Nor did we know that Rondo , who has a well-worn reputation as one of the league ’ s most errant-shooting guards , would suddenly become a relative flamethrower during the postseason .
Perhaps aided by improved depth perception in the smaller arenas , Rondo — a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ this year — shot closer to 40 percent on three tries a game this postseason .
In Second Spectrum ’ s quantified Shot Quality stat , which measures how an average player would be expected to perform on the same attempts , Rondo went from being 5 points worse than expected on jumpers during the regular season to now shooting 6 points better than expected in the playoffs .
( For context : That 11-point swing in effective field-goal rate would be the equivalent of going from the wayward-shooting Michael Carter-Williams to marksman @ @ @ @ @ @ @ reliable shooter was a massive development for Los Angeles , as it gave defenses a bit more to consider before abandoning him beyond the arc .
It meant that Davis and James were likely to see less aggressive double-teams than they otherwise would have , allowing them to have an advantage in most of their matchups .
As always , there will be some who seek to poke holes in this title .
Aside from the one-off weirdness of the bubble itself , there ’ s also the fact that the Lakers didn @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the team with the league ’ s best record .
Or the team with the second-best record .
Or the team with the second-best record in the West .
( Though Los Angeles did take down the Bucks and the Clippers in consecutive games just before the league shut down , and then they beat the Clippers again the night the league resumed . )
Even the Miami club that earned its way to the Finals was hobbled shortly after getting there , with Goran Dragić sitting out four games and Bam Adebayo @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , these NBA Finals are merely another example of nearly every series having its set of oddities or unfortunate circumstances .
Just like last year ’ s .
Or like 2016 ’ s .
Or like 2014 ’ s .
In a way , to focus more on those circumstances would be a lot like crediting James and Davis alone for the title .
Yes , that tandem was a massive part of it , and they did much of the heavy lifting .
But overlooking everything else would be ignoring the nuances @ @ @ @ @ @ @

LeBron And AD Are The Heroes. But The Sum Of This Lakers Club Was More Than Its Superstar Parts.
As the Los Angeles Lakers romped their way Sunday night to a record-tying 17th league title with a 106-93 blowout victory over the Miami Heat, the majority of conversations around their win figured to focus on the superstar combination of LeBron James and Anthony Davis that ultimately returned them to glory.
But while those two will understandably share the brightest spotlight, the totality of this particular Lakers club — and what helped it prevail — was always more than met the eye.
Make no mistake: James and Davis were incredible all season. And there’s a solid case to be made that James — who previously played with Dwyane Wade, Chris Bosh, Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love — has never had a partner this perfect.
The Big Three in Miami was a terror, but it’s easy to forget how out of sync James and Wade were offensively early on, as Bosh took time to settle into a tertiary role after being a No. 1 option in Toronto. And even in Cleveland, where James got the biggest lift of his career off a clutch Game 7 triple from Irving, his Cavs sidekicks weren’t all that skilled on defense, making it more of a challenge for them to hold the line whenever James had to go to the bench for breathers.
This year, when Davis was asked to hold down the fort without James on the floor in the regular season, the Lakers weren’t anything special, getting outscored by 3 points per 100 possessions, per NBA Advanced Stats. But the big man found a new level in the playoffs, when Los Angeles beat up opponents by 8 points per 100 possessions when Davis played as James was sidelined.
The importance of Davis was on display repeatedly, whether on a series-altering game-winner or over a quarter of using his condor-like wingspan to stifle the guy who had just gone off for a 40-point triple-double the game before. His presence was an enormous factor in Sunday’s Game 6 clincher, as Miami often looked reluctant to shoot anywhere near the rim, fearing that Davis might be nearby, ready to swat any close-range tries.
But it would be wrong to think that this title was solely about James and Davis.
Frank Vogel, who hoisted a championship trophy in Orlando just two years after being fired by the Magic, did an outstanding job with this group. Long known for his defensive acumen, Vogel often got fantastic buy-in on that end from James, who, after years of less-than-consistent effort, generally locked down his opponents when it mattered most. (Davis, of course, was the runner-up for Defensive Player of the Year.) But even on the offensive end, Vogel and his staff developed a game plan designed to blow up Miami’s zone — placing either James or Davis in the middle of it, then taking the other man and putting him along the baseline, which forced the Heat to scrap the plan altogether.
After the Lakers’ disappointing flame-out last season, general manager Rob Pelinka was under pressure to assemble a roster after holding out for, then missing on, Kawhi Leonard. He didn’t bring in a third star, but it’s worth noting that Alex Caruso, Rajon Rondo, Markieff Morris and Dwight Howard (!) made up just 7 percent of the team’s salary cap, while ultimately contributing far more than that to the Lakers’ championship run.
Howard, acquired after free-agent signee DeMarcus Cousins tore his ACL, was deemed a small risk — if only because of his wishy-washy reputation and the agitation in Laker Land over his first stint. But his ability on the glass was enormous throughout the NBA Finals against Miami, and he was usually a steadier backup presence than the undisciplined JaVale McGee. (And to Vogel’s credit, he adjusted in Game 6 by playing small and leaving Howard on the bench as a way to space the floor offensively. This change allowed the Lakers to turn the game into a track meet early, and the Heat were never able to locate their sprinter’s spikes.)
Talented as the Lakers are, the offense outside of their supremely talented Top Two was a fair question coming in. Yes, they could score with the best of them because of Davis and James. But it wasn’t crazy to wonder where any other high-level ball-handling would come from, or if a lack thereof would place too much of a burden on an aging James.
As they illustrated Sunday, the team feasted and brought opponents to their knees when they couldn’t appropriately set their defense, with James throwing transition touchdown after transition touchdown to Davis. Yet the Lakers’ half-court offense was mediocre throughout the regular season, having posted slightly below-average efficiency numbers. They weren’t all that good from deep either, and the team endured a notable cold spell to end the regular season, ranking 20th of the 22 bubble teams in offense.
But we had no idea that Kentavious Caldwell-Pope would morph into an elite role player for the second half of the Finals. Nor did we know that Rondo, who has a well-worn reputation as one of the league’s most errant-shooting guards, would suddenly become a relative flamethrower during the postseason. Perhaps aided by improved depth perception in the smaller arenas, Rondo — a 29 percent postseason shooter from three before this year — shot closer to 40 percent on three tries a game this postseason.
In Second Spectrum’s quantified Shot Quality stat, which measures how an average player would be expected to perform on the same attempts, Rondo went from being 5 points worse than expected on jumpers during the regular season to now shooting 6 points better than expected in the playoffs. (For context: That 11-point swing in effective field-goal rate would be the equivalent of going from the wayward-shooting Michael Carter-Williams to marksman Khris Middleton.)
Rondo becoming a reliable shooter was a massive development for Los Angeles, as it gave defenses a bit more to consider before abandoning him beyond the arc. It meant that Davis and James were likely to see less aggressive double-teams than they otherwise would have, allowing them to have an advantage in most of their matchups.
As always, there will be some who seek to poke holes in this title. Aside from the one-off weirdness of the bubble itself, there’s also the fact that the Lakers didn’t end up having to face the team with the league’s best record. Or the team with the second-best record. Or the team with the second-best record in the West. (Though Los Angeles did take down the Bucks and the Clippers in consecutive games just before the league shut down, and then they beat the Clippers again the night the league resumed.)
Even the Miami club that earned its way to the Finals was hobbled shortly after getting there, with Goran Dragić sitting out four games and Bam Adebayo missing two.
But in the end, these NBA Finals are merely another example of nearly every series having its set of oddities or unfortunate circumstances. Just like last year’s. Or like 2016’s. Or like 2014’s.
In a way, to focus more on those circumstances would be a lot like crediting James and Davis alone for the title. Yes, that tandem was a massive part of it, and they did much of the heavy lifting. But overlooking everything else would be ignoring the nuances of what made this team special.