fivethirthyeight--2020-07-17--For Aspiring Performers, The NBA Is The Best Place To Be A Mascot

When the NBA regular season resumes later this month , the entertainment product will look markedly different .
In its restart will be a rich irony : A sport that long ago went all-in on in-game entertainment will begin operations in a climate that requires none .
Gone will be the pregame pyrotechnics , midquarter dance breaks and four-barreled T-shirt cannons meant to entertain boisterous crowds — since , of course , there won ’ t be any boisterous crowds within the Walt Disney World bubble .
But perhaps the most conspicuous absence will be that of the fuzzy creatures @ @ @ @ @ @ @ you ’ ve attended an NBA game in the past few decades , you ’ ve probably noticed the anthropomorphic creatures that regularly steal the show and sometimes your significant other .
They are intentionally difficult to miss , interwoven in the fabric of game presentation and the contemporary fan experience .
All but four teams feature a mascot , and of the current crop , only a handful have been around for less than a decade .
A few — Benny the Bull , Bango the Buck and Sir CC — predate @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , mascots aren ’ t exclusive to the NBA nor to athletics .
And seldom , it seems , do they share much connective tissue with the names of the teams or logos that they represent .
This isn ’ t a recent development , but it looks like one that ’ s growing .
Most recently , that disconnect between a team ’ s name , logo and mascot returned to the national discussion , including President Trump railing against the notion of team name changes .
Cleveland ’ s baseball team @ @ @ @ @ @ @ off its uniforms before the 2019 season — has been represented since 1990 by a purple , spotted creature named Slider .
The divergence is often more humorous : Why are the Minnesota Twins represented by a bear or the Phoenix Suns by a gorilla ?
Why are the New York Islanders represented by a dragon or the Tennessee Titans by a raccoon ?
In some cases , these are tactical decisions , the result of hours of market research and focus groups and refinement .
And sometimes they ’ re the result @ @ @ @ @ @ @ college student showing up to a baseball game dressed like a chicken .
Occasionally , designers are granted the creative latitude to create mascots from the ground up , in any shape or taxonomy .
“ When people start with us , we always tell them that we ’ re building a program from scratch , ” said David Raymond , who served as the Phillie Phanatic for more than 15 years beginning in the late 1970s and now owns and operates a mascot company .
“ They go , ‘ Well , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ should it be ?
’ And I tell them , ‘ I don ’ t care.
’ That ’ s like fourth on our list .
First we have to figure out its story .
And then eventually it might be mostly rubber .
It might have a tongue .
Or it might be the logo .
Each project is a uniquely creative one.
” Consensus can be difficult to come by in the world of fabric and foam .
But most agree that there likely isn ’ t a professional sports league @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a brighter spotlight on their work than the NBA .
“ The NBA does a lot of great things , ” said Trey Mock , who performs as Blue , the mascot of the Indianapolis Colts .
“ That league puts a lot into entertainment .
I ’ m not trying to compare one league to another , but they have been plugging millions and millions of dollars into the entertainment side of the operation for a long time.
” Case in point : The Colts hired Mock in 2006 to be the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ build a mascot from scratch .
He drew Blue on his parents ’ dining room table .
“ The NFL has way more money , ” said Rob Wicall , who served as the San Antonio Spurs Coyote for nearly two decades .
“ But it ’ s the NBA that invests and has them center stage .
They have mascots commanding the crowd.
” What once was a part-time afterthought has evolved into a full-time focal point .
The former auxiliaries are now fully fleshed-out character brands and the marketing cornerstones of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ mascot ’ s value and they care , ” Raymond said of the NBA .
“ They support it both from a financial and a marketing perspective .
They recognize its power and how to leverage it.
” Not only do mascots cultivate the next generation of fans , they also generate millions of dollars in revenue for their teams .
When Gritty , the mascot of the Philadelphia Flyers , exploded onto the scene in 2018 , online publicity of the googly-eyed orange creature was valued at $ 151.3 million in just @ @ @ @ @ @ @ there ’ s Benny , the mascot of the Chicago Bulls .
“ Benny ’ s popularity at games is proven in his merchandise sales , which are among the top 10 items sold in the team store , ” said Michelle Harris , Chicago Bulls senior director of entertainment and events , in 2016 .
“ Mascots were somewhat of a precursor to selling your branded logos in all kinds of different colors , all kinds of hues that you never would ’ ve seen otherwise , ” Raymond said , pointing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s Day-themed retail specific to mascots .
“ It ’ s been a revolution in sports marketing.
” Mascot salaries are beginning to reflect that return on investment .
One current NBA mascot performer — who , like other working mascots , talked to us on the condition of anonymity — said he first learned of the pay disparity among leagues at a summer camp .
“ Hockey , baseball and football do a decent job of compensating mascots in the $ 30,000-to- $ 50,000 range , ” the mascot said .
“ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ world.
” The NBA can offer a lucrative career , current and former mascots told FiveThirtyEight .
They estimate that roughly one-third of leading performers earn six figures annually , making it the gold standard among professional leagues .
“ You make more money in the NBA , ” Raymond agreed .
“ But you probably need to be more physically skilled and talented to get a job.
” No longer is a gymnastics background and an energetic disposition sufficient .
The modern-day mascot must be proficient in choreography , comedy and skit @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Critically , a performer must embody the character and its brand , which means bottling the culture of a city and exhibiting it as an oft-dopey avatar in a poorly ventilated suit .
“ It ’ s extremely difficult , ” Raymond said with a laugh .
“ Unfortunately , even at the highest levels in certain sports , there are people that think , ‘ You go over there and work with the kids while we take care of serious business over here.
’ ” More than one mascot said they had @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
A single home game might involve waving a flag at center court as the starting lineups are introduced , weaving through multiple outfit changes and numerous rehearsed skits , discharging silly string into the face of an unsuspecting fan and gyrating in concert with the dance team .
In rare instances , an ejection might be part of the evening ’ s festivities .
More than a handful of current NBA mascots have trainers and dieticians working to keep them on the court and off the training table .
Performances have resulted @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Some injuries have ultimately forced performers into early retirement .
“ I ’ m screwed for the rest of my life , ” Wicall said , half-joking .
“ My body is broken.
” Current NBA performers told FiveThirtyEight that while teams play only 41 regular-season home games per year , mascots log hundreds of additional events — community outreach opportunities , internal holiday parties , hospital visits , fundraisers , weddings and funerals .
“ Funerals are about as weird as you ’ d expect , ” one mascot told FiveThirtyEight @ @ @ @ @ @ @ been asked to serve as a pallbearer .
No public database is available for industry demographics , but current and former mascots gave us a picture of the people underneath the outfits — young , white and male .
Typically , NBA performers are between the ages of 25 and 50 , although there are a few performers north of 50 , one mascot told FiveThirtyEight .
“ There ’ s actually probably less physicality now , ” Wicall said .
“ There used to be more tumblers and that kind of thing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ career is roughly 15 to 20 years .
Roughly six teams feature a Black leading performer , and only one leading mascot is portrayed by a woman .
That performer , now in her fourth season , is the only female mascot at the NBA level that one longtime mascot could recall .
“ She does a phenomenal job , ” the mascot noted .
Mock agreed that the mascot industry is dominated by males .
“ I absolutely don ’ t want it to be a boys club , ” Mock said @ @ @ @ @ @ @ us who are mascots never necessarily fit into any club .
It takes a very unique personality to become one of us and that has nothing to do with gender or race .
I ’ m doing everything I can to make sure we get the best performer in the suit.
” The lack of diversity among pro mascots is glaring and has been an issue for a while , according to Wicall , though he said the college ranks are currently populated by extremely talented female leads .
“ There are plenty @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in better shape than me , ” he said .
“ But even the design of the costumes are masculine .
I ’ ve never even seen a female at an audition.
” Lightning , the pegasus mascot of the WNBA ’ s Dallas Wings , is one of the few female-specific mascots in sports .
Like other industries , the mascot profession can be a family affair .
There ’ s currently an NBA Western Conference mascot in what ’ s believed to be his final season after nearly 30 years beneath @ @ @ @ @ @ @ lead mascot in the Eastern Conference .
His other son is expected to assume his role when he retires .
The humans inside the costumes come in different forms , but what about the mascots themselves ?
Is any one type more frequent in each professional league ?
FiveThirtyEight analyzed each primary mascot in five North American .
sports leagues — the NBA , WNBA , NFL , NHL and MLB — to get a sense of what type of creatures populate the sideline .
For this exercise , we considered only the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ team , and if a team has multiple signature mascots , we used the one with the earliest origin year .
It also had to have a human inside the suit , so unfortunately Al the Octopus didn ’ t qualify .
We classified each mascot according to where it could be found : on land , in the sea , in the sky or in the world of make believe .
The NBA is smitten with mascots native to land , the most popular classification across the board .
Seventeen of the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ be found on land — the highest number of mascots in that category across the five leagues .
Half of the WNBA ’ s 12 mascots come from the world of make believe , the highest share of that category among the five leagues .
MLB shares that preference for the world of fantasy , with the most make-believe creatures to its credit ( 10 ) , while the NHL has the greatest affinity for sky-bound mascots ( six ) .
The NFL features a wide assortment but also includes the most teams @ @ @ @ @ @ @ What ’ s great about each league is that they ’ re different , ” one mascot told FiveThirtyEight .
“ But we know one league is paving the way.
” Like the league in which they operate , NBA mascots have embraced digital media with open , fuzzy arms .
In an effort to turn the sport into a global game , professional basketball has long catered itself to a younger demographic .
And no league has embraced social media more than the NBA .
With 49 million followers on Instagram , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ double that of the NFL , NHL and MLB combined .
The English Premier League is no doubt the most popular league of the world ’ s most popular sport , but it has roughly 10 million fewer followers on Instagram and 8 million fewer followers on Twitter than the NBA .
That passion for social media extends to the whiskered world .
All but two of the NBA franchises with a mascot have an active , dedicated Twitter account for it .
The Cleveland Cavaliers have two , for Sir CC and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Instagram and Facebook accounts , and more than one-third are now on TikTok .
NBA mascots have embraced social media in ways no other league has — and they have larger followings to show for it .
Once an afterthought , social media has rapidly become an essential responsibility for most performers .
“ Everything we are doing is content , ” said one NBA mascot who estimated that he was churning out five video projects per week during quarantine .
Another mentioned that he had converted the entryway of his home into @ @ @ @ @ @ @ not uncommon for mascots to expense thousands of dollars per month on materials for skits featured both during games and across social media .
“ Amazon Prime has been a lifesaver , ” one NBA mascot said , noting that the closure of Toys R Us was devastating to the community .
“ I think the sport sells itself to the entertainment side , ” one NBA mascot said .
“ Our entertainment team really looks at what we are doing and what we can be doing differently .
How can we innovate @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s a big emphasis on staying current across the league , and that goes all the way up to [ Commissioner ] Adam Silver.
” “ Amazon Prime has been a lifesaver , ” one NBA mascot said , noting that the closure of Toys R Us was devastating to the community .
In terms of reverence and popularity , everyone is chasing the bull .
From being a featured guest on Jerry Springer to producing a soundless podcast titled “ Between Two Horns , ” Benny the Bull has pushed the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the court and online .
“ His full body of work has enabled him to become one of the most iconic mascots in sports , ” Harris said .
Benny was born a few years after Jerry Colangelo — then in marketing — had someone drive a flatbed truck down Michigan Avenue with a literal bull in a vehicle in an attempt to sell season tickets .
Named after Ben Bentley , the team ’ s first public relations man and public address announcer , Benny has grown into perhaps the most well-known @ @ @ @ @ @ @ certainly the most-followed .
Benny , who celebrated his 50th birthday last year , leads the league in followers on Twitter ( 39,300 ) , Instagram ( 299,000 ) and TikTok ( 2.4 million ) .
Chicago ’ s loveable bull isn ’ t just successful by mascot standards : Benny has the most-followed North American professional sports TikTok account and the second-most followed sports account on the planet .
While Benny undoubtedly has benefited from performing in the third-largest media market in the country , other mascots have found success with smaller @ @ @ @ @ @ @ there is perhaps no mascot in the NBA that has amassed a larger social following than Coyote of the San Antonio Spurs .
The 7-foot , bat-catching , pants-losing dork ranks among the league leaders in followers on all platforms while performing in an average-to-small media market .
“ I couldn ’ t be prouder of Coyote , ” Wicall said .
“ And what it has become.
” But mascots ’ use of social media is hardly flip : They aren ’ t just uploading memes or tapping into the latest dance @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for Black Lives Matter and encouraging mask-wearing practices , celebrating medical professionals and fallen veterans .
After Mock posted on Blue ’ s social media platforms in support of Black Lives Matter , he said that other mascots reached out to him and asked if the posts had been cleared by the Colts organization .
Some asked why he published the posts .
“ I ’ ve heard mascots say , ‘ That ’ s not a place for mascots.
’ But I very much disagree , ” Mock said .
“ I @ @ @ @ @ @ @ story that needs to be heard and a platform and to use that platform for good and to help others.
” Blue is among the most-followed mascots in the NFL , with more than 65,000 followers across its social media channels .
“ If it ’ s going to be just trick shots and slapstick comedy , but not something that ’ s inspirational and can be impactful to change lives , I think that ’ s a misuse of the platform , ” Mock said .
“ I think mascots go a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on game days .
They run much deeper than just making someone laugh .
I think mascots can be a part of all emotions , and hopefully emotions that stand for love and change.
” Some NBA mascots admit they are stuck in a bind .
“ I would say most of the time mascots avoid any type of ‘ real ’ issues , but I think [ racial injustice ] is near and dear to a lot of the organizations and the NBA , ” one mascot said about the mascot community @ @ @ @ @ @ @ George Floyd , Breonna Taylor and Ahmaud Arbery .
“ I have a lot of political opinions , but personally I think statements should come from the team account .
“ However , I will say that once in the past 37 years our mascot has said something serious , and it was last week .
I think that actually means a lot.
” Nearly three decades after his tenure as the Phillie Phanatic , Raymond helped open the Mascot Hall of Fame in Whiting , Indiana .
It was a dream of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ spent bringing joy to countless others .
“ I take such pride in seeing the current generation perform , ” he said , drawing a line from the San Diego Chicken to Gritty .
That generation includes Blue , who was a member of this year ’ s Hall of Fame class .
“ In college , really for the first time , I saw a mascot who was super athletic and hilarious and doing things that most people get arrested for , ” Mock recalled .
“ And I was like , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ doing it.
” Blue joined Boomer of the Indiana Pacers , The Oriole Bird of the Baltimore Orioles and Youppi !
of the Montreal Canadiens in this year ’ s class , inducted last month .
For those behind the mask , the virtual ceremony was the culmination of a life ’ s work of double-knit screens and spotters , cardboard and padding , weekends at Chuck E. Cheese and endless wash-and-dry cycles .
For the NBA , this year ’ s class was yet another reminder that the league ’ s mascot @ @ @ @ @ @ @ seventh NBA mascot to be enshrined .
No other professional league can say the same .
“ I knew from an early age that I wanted to be an NBA mascot , ” one current performer told FiveThirtyEight .
“ That ’ s the pinnacle of this career .
Basketball is kind of where everyone wants to end up .
It sets the stage .
It creates stars.
” Wicall finds himself reflecting more these days .
He misses the energy of the crowd ; he said that this is the first time @ @ @ @ @ @ @ he isn ’ t performing something .
His career includes five championship rings and a whole lot of memories .
But the smaller moments — the ones that extended well beyond the field of play — are the ones that left a mark .
Over his tenure , Wicall took Coyote on hundreds of trips to the children ’ s hospital in San Antonio .
He ’ d carefully make the rounds , maneuvering around ventilators and webs of wires and hoses , doing anything he could in the minutes he had to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , for suffering families .
Maybe he ’ d crack a joke or give out a hug .
Maybe he ’ d conduct a magic trick or comically walk into a sliding glass door .
Wicall remembers that he always liked to place the Coyote ’ s paw on the cheek of a sick child .
Always the side with the softest fur .
“ Bye-bye , ” whispered a 3-year-old girl one day as Coyote left her room .
Moments later , Wicall looked down and was surprised to see two arms @ @ @ @ @ @ @ It was the child ’ s grandmother , in tears , thanking him and explaining that the girl hadn ’ t spoken in two weeks .
“ It just blows you away , the power of a mascot , ” Wicall said .
“ It ’ s those things right there that were truly monumental .
”

For Aspiring Performers, The NBA Is The Best Place To Be A Mascot We talked to the people inside the plush, furry costumes that are symbols of North American sports teams.
When the NBA regular season resumes later this month, the entertainment product will look markedly different. In its restart will be a rich irony: A sport that long ago went all-in on in-game entertainment will begin operations in a climate that requires none.
Gone will be the pregame pyrotechnics, midquarter dance breaks and four-barreled T-shirt cannons meant to entertain boisterous crowds — since, of course, there won’t be any boisterous crowds within the Walt Disney World bubble. But perhaps the most conspicuous absence will be that of the fuzzy creatures that usually roam the arena.
If you’ve attended an NBA game in the past few decades, you’ve probably noticed the anthropomorphic creatures that regularly steal the show and sometimes your significant other. They are intentionally difficult to miss, interwoven in the fabric of game presentation and the contemporary fan experience. All but four teams feature a mascot, and of the current crop, only a handful have been around for less than a decade. A few — Benny the Bull, Bango the Buck and Sir CC — predate the 3-point field goal.
Of course, mascots aren’t exclusive to the NBA nor to athletics. And seldom, it seems, do they share much connective tissue with the names of the teams or logos that they represent. This isn’t a recent development, but it looks like one that’s growing.
Most recently, that disconnect between a team’s name, logo and mascot returned to the national discussion, including President Trump railing against the notion of team name changes. Cleveland’s baseball team — which pulled the Chief Wahoo logo off its uniforms before the 2019 season — has been represented since 1990 by a purple, spotted creature named Slider.
The divergence is often more humorous: Why are the Minnesota Twins represented by a bear or the Phoenix Suns by a gorilla? Why are the New York Islanders represented by a dragon or the Tennessee Titans by a raccoon? In some cases, these are tactical decisions, the result of hours of market research and focus groups and refinement. And sometimes they’re the result of a viral singing telegram or a college student showing up to a baseball game dressed like a chicken.
Occasionally, designers are granted the creative latitude to create mascots from the ground up, in any shape or taxonomy.
“When people start with us, we always tell them that we’re building a program from scratch,” said David Raymond, who served as the Phillie Phanatic for more than 15 years beginning in the late 1970s and now owns and operates a mascot company. “They go, ‘Well, what should it look like? What should it be?’ And I tell them, ‘I don’t care.’ That’s like fourth on our list. First we have to figure out its story. And then eventually it might be mostly rubber. It might have a tongue. Or it might be the logo. Each project is a uniquely creative one.”
Consensus can be difficult to come by in the world of fabric and foam. But most agree that there likely isn’t a professional sports league that invests more in mascots or shines a brighter spotlight on their work than the NBA.
“The NBA does a lot of great things,” said Trey Mock, who performs as Blue, the mascot of the Indianapolis Colts. “That league puts a lot into entertainment. I’m not trying to compare one league to another, but they have been plugging millions and millions of dollars into the entertainment side of the operation for a long time.”
Case in point: The Colts hired Mock in 2006 to be the team’s primary performer and to build a mascot from scratch. He drew Blue on his parents’ dining room table.
“The NFL has way more money,” said Rob Wicall, who served as the San Antonio Spurs Coyote for nearly two decades. “But it’s the NBA that invests and has them center stage. They have mascots commanding the crowd.”
What once was a part-time afterthought has evolved into a full-time focal point. The former auxiliaries are now fully fleshed-out character brands and the marketing cornerstones of billion-dollar franchises.
“They understand the mascot’s value and they care,” Raymond said of the NBA. “They support it both from a financial and a marketing perspective. They recognize its power and how to leverage it.”
Not only do mascots cultivate the next generation of fans, they also generate millions of dollars in revenue for their teams. When Gritty, the mascot of the Philadelphia Flyers, exploded onto the scene in 2018, online publicity of the googly-eyed orange creature was valued at $151.3 million in just its first 30 days. And then there’s Benny, the mascot of the Chicago Bulls. “Benny’s popularity at games is proven in his merchandise sales, which are among the top 10 items sold in the team store,” said Michelle Harris, Chicago Bulls senior director of entertainment and events, in 2016.
“Mascots were somewhat of a precursor to selling your branded logos in all kinds of different colors, all kinds of hues that you never would’ve seen otherwise,” Raymond said, pointing to the rise of St. Patrick’s Day-themed retail specific to mascots. “It’s been a revolution in sports marketing.”
Mascot salaries are beginning to reflect that return on investment.
One current NBA mascot performer — who, like other working mascots, talked to us on the condition of anonymity — said he first learned of the pay disparity among leagues at a summer camp. “Hockey, baseball and football do a decent job of compensating mascots in the $30,000-to-$50,000 range,” the mascot said. “But the NBA is this whole other world.”
The NBA can offer a lucrative career, current and former mascots told FiveThirtyEight. They estimate that roughly one-third of leading performers earn six figures annually, making it the gold standard among professional leagues.
“You make more money in the NBA,” Raymond agreed. “But you probably need to be more physically skilled and talented to get a job.”
No longer is a gymnastics background and an energetic disposition sufficient. The modern-day mascot must be proficient in choreography, comedy and skit ideation, among many other skills. Critically, a performer must embody the character and its brand, which means bottling the culture of a city and exhibiting it as an oft-dopey avatar in a poorly ventilated suit.
“It’s extremely difficult,” Raymond said with a laugh. “Unfortunately, even at the highest levels in certain sports, there are people that think, ‘You go over there and work with the kids while we take care of serious business over here.’”
More than one mascot said they had been asked to serve as a pallbearer.
A single home game might involve waving a flag at center court as the starting lineups are introduced, weaving through multiple outfit changes and numerous rehearsed skits, discharging silly string into the face of an unsuspecting fan and gyrating in concert with the dance team. In rare instances, an ejection might be part of the evening’s festivities.
More than a handful of current NBA mascots have trainers and dieticians working to keep them on the court and off the training table. Performances have resulted in torn Achilles tendons and broken backs. Some injuries have ultimately forced performers into early retirement.
“I’m screwed for the rest of my life,” Wicall said, half-joking. “My body is broken.”
Current NBA performers told FiveThirtyEight that while teams play only 41 regular-season home games per year, mascots log hundreds of additional events — community outreach opportunities, internal holiday parties, hospital visits, fundraisers, weddings and funerals. “Funerals are about as weird as you’d expect,” one mascot told FiveThirtyEight. More than one said they had been asked to serve as a pallbearer.
No public database is available for industry demographics, but current and former mascots gave us a picture of the people underneath the outfits — young, white and male.
Typically, NBA performers are between the ages of 25 and 50, although there are a few performers north of 50, one mascot told FiveThirtyEight. “There’s actually probably less physicality now,” Wicall said. “There used to be more tumblers and that kind of thing in the early 2000s.” The average career is roughly 15 to 20 years.
Roughly six teams feature a Black leading performer, and only one leading mascot is portrayed by a woman. That performer, now in her fourth season, is the only female mascot at the NBA level that one longtime mascot could recall. “She does a phenomenal job,” the mascot noted.
Mock agreed that the mascot industry is dominated by males. “I absolutely don’t want it to be a boys club,” Mock said. “I think a lot of us who are mascots never necessarily fit into any club. It takes a very unique personality to become one of us and that has nothing to do with gender or race. I’m doing everything I can to make sure we get the best performer in the suit.”
The lack of diversity among pro mascots is glaring and has been an issue for a while, according to Wicall, though he said the college ranks are currently populated by extremely talented female leads. “There are plenty of women who are much stronger and in better shape than me,” he said. “But even the design of the costumes are masculine. I’ve never even seen a female at an audition.” Lightning, the pegasus mascot of the WNBA’s Dallas Wings, is one of the few female-specific mascots in sports.
Like other industries, the mascot profession can be a family affair. There’s currently an NBA Western Conference mascot in what’s believed to be his final season after nearly 30 years beneath the suit. His son is a lead mascot in the Eastern Conference. His other son is expected to assume his role when he retires.
The humans inside the costumes come in different forms, but what about the mascots themselves? Is any one type more frequent in each professional league?
FiveThirtyEight analyzed each primary mascot in five North American. sports leagues — the NBA, WNBA, NFL, NHL and MLB — to get a sense of what type of creatures populate the sideline. For this exercise, we considered only the leading, most public-facing mascot for each team, and if a team has multiple signature mascots, we used the one with the earliest origin year. It also had to have a human inside the suit, so unfortunately Al the Octopus didn’t qualify.
We classified each mascot according to where it could be found: on land, in the sea, in the sky or in the world of make believe.
The NBA is smitten with mascots native to land, the most popular classification across the board. Seventeen of the league’s 26 primary mascots can be found on land — the highest number of mascots in that category across the five leagues. Half of the WNBA’s 12 mascots come from the world of make believe, the highest share of that category among the five leagues. MLB shares that preference for the world of fantasy, with the most make-believe creatures to its credit (10), while the NHL has the greatest affinity for sky-bound mascots (six). The NFL features a wide assortment but also includes the most teams without mascots (five).
“What’s great about each league is that they’re different,” one mascot told FiveThirtyEight. “But we know one league is paving the way.”
Like the league in which they operate, NBA mascots have embraced digital media with open, fuzzy arms.
In an effort to turn the sport into a global game, professional basketball has long catered itself to a younger demographic. And no league has embraced social media more than the NBA. With 49 million followers on Instagram, the NBA has a digital audience nearly double that of the NFL, NHL and MLB combined. The English Premier League is no doubt the most popular league of the world’s most popular sport, but it has roughly 10 million fewer followers on Instagram and 8 million fewer followers on Twitter than the NBA.
That passion for social media extends to the whiskered world.
All but two of the NBA franchises with a mascot have an active, dedicated Twitter account for it. The Cleveland Cavaliers have two, for Sir CC and Moon Dog. Most NBA mascots have Instagram and Facebook accounts, and more than one-third are now on TikTok. NBA mascots have embraced social media in ways no other league has — and they have larger followings to show for it.
More NBA mascots are on social media Social media followings in five North American professional sports leagues, with number of accounts per platform and total followers Facebook Twitter Instagram League Accounts Followers Accounts Followers Accounts Followers NBA 14 382,624 24 283,002 20 771,849 NHL 15 188,908 25 697,167 18 612,936 MLB 8 87,423 21 502,221 16 453,619 NFL 7 180,359 14 270,721 12 245,756 WNBA 1 827 4 2,670 3 1,663 Follower counts as of July 2, 2020. Gritty, of the Philadelphia Flyers, accounts for nearly half of the NHL’s followers on Twitter and Instagram. Sources: Facebook, Twitter, Instagram
Once an afterthought, social media has rapidly become an essential responsibility for most performers. “Everything we are doing is content,” said one NBA mascot who estimated that he was churning out five video projects per week during quarantine. Another mentioned that he had converted the entryway of his home into a TV studio. It’s not uncommon for mascots to expense thousands of dollars per month on materials for skits featured both during games and across social media. “Amazon Prime has been a lifesaver,” one NBA mascot said, noting that the closure of Toys R Us was devastating to the community.
“I think the sport sells itself to the entertainment side,” one NBA mascot said. “Our entertainment team really looks at what we are doing and what we can be doing differently. How can we innovate? What’s trending? There’s a big emphasis on staying current across the league, and that goes all the way up to [Commissioner] Adam Silver.”
“Amazon Prime has been a lifesaver,” one NBA mascot said, noting that the closure of Toys R Us was devastating to the community.
In terms of reverence and popularity, everyone is chasing the bull. From being a featured guest on Jerry Springer to producing a soundless podcast titled “Between Two Horns,” Benny the Bull has pushed the envelope for the industry, both on the court and online. “His full body of work has enabled him to become one of the most iconic mascots in sports,” Harris said. Benny was born a few years after Jerry Colangelo — then in marketing — had someone drive a flatbed truck down Michigan Avenue with a literal bull in a vehicle in an attempt to sell season tickets. Named after Ben Bentley, the team’s first public relations man and public address announcer, Benny has grown into perhaps the most well-known sports mascot of all time — and certainly the most-followed.
Benny, who celebrated his 50th birthday last year, leads the league in followers on Twitter (39,300), Instagram (299,000) and TikTok (2.4 million). Chicago’s loveable bull isn’t just successful by mascot standards: Benny has the most-followed North American professional sports TikTok account and the second-most followed sports account on the planet.
While Benny undoubtedly has benefited from performing in the third-largest media market in the country, other mascots have found success with smaller backdrops. Relative to market size, there is perhaps no mascot in the NBA that has amassed a larger social following than Coyote of the San Antonio Spurs. The 7-foot, bat-catching, pants-losing dork ranks among the league leaders in followers on all platforms while performing in an average-to-small media market.
“I couldn’t be prouder of Coyote,” Wicall said. “And what it has become.”
But mascots’ use of social media is hardly flip: They aren’t just uploading memes or tapping into the latest dance craze; they’re issuing support for Black Lives Matter and encouraging mask-wearing practices, celebrating medical professionals and fallen veterans.
After Mock posted on Blue’s social media platforms in support of Black Lives Matter, he said that other mascots reached out to him and asked if the posts had been cleared by the Colts organization. Some asked why he published the posts.
“I’ve heard mascots say, ‘That’s not a place for mascots.’ But I very much disagree,” Mock said. “I always tell students that everyone has a story that needs to be heard and a platform and to use that platform for good and to help others.”
Blue is among the most-followed mascots in the NFL, with more than 65,000 followers across its social media channels.
“If it’s going to be just trick shots and slapstick comedy, but not something that’s inspirational and can be impactful to change lives, I think that’s a misuse of the platform,” Mock said. “I think mascots go a lot deeper than just what people see on game days. They run much deeper than just making someone laugh. I think mascots can be a part of all emotions, and hopefully emotions that stand for love and change.”
Some NBA mascots admit they are stuck in a bind.
“I would say most of the time mascots avoid any type of ‘real’ issues, but I think [racial injustice] is near and dear to a lot of the organizations and the NBA,” one mascot said about the mascot community’s response to the deaths of George Floyd, Breonna Taylor and Ahmaud Arbery. “I have a lot of political opinions, but personally I think statements should come from the team account.
“However, I will say that once in the past 37 years our mascot has said something serious, and it was last week. I think that actually means a lot.”
Nearly three decades after his tenure as the Phillie Phanatic, Raymond helped open the Mascot Hall of Fame in Whiting, Indiana. It was a dream of his, born from the moments he spent bringing joy to countless others. “I take such pride in seeing the current generation perform,” he said, drawing a line from the San Diego Chicken to Gritty.
That generation includes Blue, who was a member of this year’s Hall of Fame class. “In college, really for the first time, I saw a mascot who was super athletic and hilarious and doing things that most people get arrested for,” Mock recalled. “And I was like, what is this? I’m doing it.”
Blue joined Boomer of the Indiana Pacers, The Oriole Bird of the Baltimore Orioles and Youppi! of the Montreal Canadiens in this year’s class, inducted last month. For those behind the mask, the virtual ceremony was the culmination of a life’s work of double-knit screens and spotters, cardboard and padding, weekends at Chuck E. Cheese and endless wash-and-dry cycles.
For the NBA, this year’s class was yet another reminder that the league’s mascot community remains strong. Boomer is the seventh NBA mascot to be enshrined. No other professional league can say the same.
“I knew from an early age that I wanted to be an NBA mascot,” one current performer told FiveThirtyEight. “That’s the pinnacle of this career. Basketball is kind of where everyone wants to end up. It sets the stage. It creates stars.”
Wicall finds himself reflecting more these days. He misses the energy of the crowd; he said that this is the first time since he was 4 years old that he isn’t performing something.
His career includes five championship rings and a whole lot of memories. But the smaller moments — the ones that extended well beyond the field of play — are the ones that left a mark.
Over his tenure, Wicall took Coyote on hundreds of trips to the children’s hospital in San Antonio. He’d carefully make the rounds, maneuvering around ventilators and webs of wires and hoses, doing anything he could in the minutes he had to lighten the load, if only briefly, for suffering families.
Maybe he’d crack a joke or give out a hug. Maybe he’d conduct a magic trick or comically walk into a sliding glass door. Wicall remembers that he always liked to place the Coyote’s paw on the cheek of a sick child. Always the side with the softest fur.
“Bye-bye,” whispered a 3-year-old girl one day as Coyote left her room. Moments later, Wicall looked down and was surprised to see two arms clasped around Coyote’s waist. It was the child’s grandmother, in tears, thanking him and explaining that the girl hadn’t spoken in two weeks.
“It just blows you away, the power of a mascot,” Wicall said. “It’s those things right there that were truly monumental.”
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fivethirthyeight--2020-07-17--Can The Hare Beat The Tortoise?

Can The Hare Beat The Tortoise?

Welcome to The Riddler .
Every week , I offer up problems related to the things we hold dear around here : math , logic and probability .
Two puzzles are presented each week : the Riddler Express for those of you who want something bite-size and the Riddler Classic for those of you in the slow-puzzle movement .
Submit a correct answer for either , and you may get a shoutout in next week ’ s column .
Please wait until Monday to publicly share your answers !
If you need a hint or have a favorite puzzle collecting @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on Twitter .
From Taylor Firman comes an opportunity to make baseball history : This year , Major League Baseball announced it will play a shortened 60-game season , as opposed to the typical 162-game season .
Baseball is a sport of numbers and statistics , and so Taylor wondered about the impact of the season ’ s length on some famous baseball records .
Some statistics are more achievable than others in a shortened season .
Suppose your true batting average is .350 , meaning you have a 35 percent chance of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ If you have four at-bats per game , what are your chances of batting at least .400 over the course of the 60-game season ?
And how does this compare to your chances of batting at least .400 over the course of a 162-game season ?
Extra credit : Some statistics are less achievable in a shortened season .
What are your chances of getting a hit in at least 56 consecutive games , tying or breaking Joe DiMaggio ’ s record , in a 60-game season ?
And how does this compare @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ?
( Again , suppose your true batting average is .350 and you have four at-bats per game . )
Extra extra credit : In a 60-game season , what are your chances of both batting at least .400 and getting a hit in at least 56 consecutive games ?
From Jason Shaw comes a new twist on an old fable : The tortoise and the hare are about to begin a 10-mile race along a “ stretch ” of road .
The tortoise is driving a car that travels 60 miles per @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a car that travels 75 miles per hour .
( For the purposes of this problem , assume that both cars accelerate from 0 miles per hour to their cruising speed instantaneously . )
The hare does a quick mental calculation and realizes if it waits until two minutes have passed , they ’ ll cross the finish line at the exact same moment .
And so , when the race begins , the tortoise drives off while the hare patiently waits .
But one minute into the race , after the tortoise @ @ @ @ @ @ @ happens .
The road turns out to be magical and instantaneously stretches by 10 miles !
As a result of this stretching , the tortoise is now 2 miles ahead of the hare , who remains at the starting line .
At the end of every subsequent minute , the road stretches by 10 miles .
With this in mind , the hare does some more mental math .
How long after the race has begun should the hare wait so that both the tortoise and the hare will cross the finish line @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to 👏 Seth Weinberg 👏 of Columbus , Ohio , 👏 Ryan Quattlebaum 👏 of Holly Springs , North Carolina , 👏 Garland Castaneda 👏 of Modesto , California and 👏 Jake Hancock 👏 of Atlanta , Georgia , winners of last week ’ s Riddler Express .
Last week , you played the Riddler version of the 24 Game .
Your goal was to make a numerical expression that equals 24 , using each of four given numbers once , along with parentheses , addition , subtraction , multiplication , division and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ fun wrinkle .
For example , if I had given you the numbers 1 , 2 , 3 and 8 , then valid solutions would have been 8×3× ( 2−1 ) and ( 3+1 ) × ( 8−2 ) , since they both equal 24 .
However , concatenation was not an allowed operation , which meant ( 32−8 ) ×1 was not a solution — that is , you couldn ’ t smush the 3 and the 2 together to get 32 .
Given the four numbers 2 , 3 , 3 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 24 ?
As it turned out , there was no way to get 24 using just parentheses , addition , subtraction , multiplication and division .
There were four different classes of solutions , and every single one of them involved exponentiation : • ( 32−3 ) ×4 , which was found by Seth .
• ( 4−2 ) 3×3 , which was found by Garland .
• ( 4÷2 ) 3×3 , which was found by Ryan .
• 4 ( 3/2 ) ×3 , which was found by Jake .
Each @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to find several more .
For example , ( 4÷2 ) 3×3 could also have been written as 3× ( 4÷2 ) 3 , or even as 3÷ ( 2÷4 ) 3 .
I honestly thought that the last one , 4 ( 3/2 ) ×3 , would stump most solvers .
After all , noninteger exponents aren ’ t something most people encounter every day .
But I was wrong — more than 10 percent of solvers answered with 4 ( 3/2 ) ×3 or an equivalent expression .
I should never @ @ @ @ @ @ @ solvers had some extra fun and submitted their own , even more challenging sets of numbers .
How many ways can you make 24 with each of the following numbers ?
• 3 , 3 , 8 and 8 ( also courtesy of Emma Knight ) Finally , while this seemed to be a conventional pencil-and-paper sort of riddle , a few solvers turned to their computers , having them generate every possible combination of the four numbers , the allowed operations and parentheses .
For example , João ’ s C++ code @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ran through the thousands of possibilities , finding every last expression that equals 24 .
Scott and João further found that 37 was the smallest number you could not make with 2 , 3 , 3 and 4 .
Sounds like the makings of another riddle… Congratulations to 👏 Tobias Tapirello 👏 of Budapest , Hungary , winner of last week ’ s Riddler Classic .
Last week , you were playing with a toy that had five rings of different diameters and a tapered column .
Each ring had a “ correct @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the largest ring that fit snugly at the bottom to the smallest ring that fit snugly at the top .
When placed on the column , each ring slid down to its correct position , if possible .
Otherwise , it rested on what was previously the topmost ring .
For example , if you stacked the smallest ring first , then you couldn ’ t stack any more rings on top .
But if you stacked the second-smallest ring first , then you could stack any one of the remaining four rings @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ t stack any more rings .
For example , here were four different stacks you could make : How many unique stacks could you create using at least one ring ?
First off , there were 31 stacks that resulted in each ring being in its correct position .
That ’ s because each of the five rings could be on the stack or off it — two possibilities .
So the number of such stacks was 2×2×2×2×2 , or 32 .
Subtracting the one stack with no rings on it meant @ @ @ @ @ @ @ then what about stacks with rings that were not in their correct position , but rather lying atop smaller rings ?
Counting up all these stacks , while being sure not to miss or double count any , got you to the heart of this puzzle .
One approach was to draw them all out , as solver Allen Gu did ( with the help of his computer ) : That ’ s all of them !
It turned out there were a grand total of 65 unique stacks .
For extra credit @ @ @ @ @ @ @ general solution , the number of unique stacks given N rings .
In working this out , many solvers tried their hand at stacks with fewer rings : • With one ring , there was one possible stack .
• With two rings , there were three possible stacks .
• With three rings , there were eight possible stacks .
• With four rings , there were 22 possible stacks .
A pattern wasn ’ t immediately obvious .
As noted by solver Meghan O ’ Keefe , the key was to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ cases , depending on the number of rings you ultimately wanted on the stack .
There were five ways to place exactly one ring on the stack — one way for each ring .
That wasn ’ t too hard .
If you wanted exactly two rings on the stack , the first ring you placed couldn ’ t have been the topmost ring , because you couldn ’ t place a second ring above it .
That meant you had four choices for the first ring .
And the second ring could @ @ @ @ @ @ @ you already placed — again , four choices .
So in all , there were 4×4 , or 42 , unique stacks with two rings .
What if you wanted a stack with three rings ?
Then the first ring couldn ’ t have been one of the top two rings , meaning it had to be one of the bottom three rings .
Which ring could you have placed second ?
It couldn ’ t have been the ring you just placed , nor could it have been the topmost ring , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to choose from .
Which ring could you have placed third ?
It couldn ’ t have been either of the two rings you just placed , but the other three were all fair game .
So in all , there were 3×3×3 , or 33 , unique stacks with three rings .
This pattern continued for any number of desired rings — with each ring you placed , it worked out that you still had the exact same number of rings to choose from .
Including the cases with four or five @ @ @ @ @ @ @ stacks was 51 + 42 + 33 + 24 + 15 , which , sure enough , equals 65 .
In general , given N rings , there are N1 + ( N−1 ) 2 + … + 2 ( N−1 ) + 1N unique stacks .
This number grows rather quickly with N. And yes , these numbers have their own OEIS sequence .
I ’ m pleased to say there was no shortage of creative solutions to this extra credit .
Josh Silverman arrived at the solution via recursion and telescoping @ @ @ @ @ @ @ using the inclusion-exclusion principle .
Oh , and just for fun , here are all 209 unique stacks when there are six rings ( again courtesy of Allen Gu ) : Well , aren ’ t you lucky ?
There ’ s a whole book full of the best puzzles from this column and some never-before-seen head-scratchers .
It ’ s called “ The Riddler , ” and it ’ s in stores now !

Welcome to The Riddler. Every week, I offer up problems related to the things we hold dear around here: math, logic and probability. Two puzzles are presented each week: the Riddler Express for those of you who want something bite-size and the Riddler Classic for those of you in the slow-puzzle movement. Submit a correct answer for either, and you may get a shoutout in next week’s column. Please wait until Monday to publicly share your answers! If you need a hint or have a favorite puzzle collecting dust in your attic, find me on Twitter.
Riddler Express
From Taylor Firman comes an opportunity to make baseball history:
This year, Major League Baseball announced it will play a shortened 60-game season, as opposed to the typical 162-game season. Baseball is a sport of numbers and statistics, and so Taylor wondered about the impact of the season’s length on some famous baseball records.
Some statistics are more achievable than others in a shortened season. Suppose your true batting average is .350, meaning you have a 35 percent chance of getting a hit with every at-bat. If you have four at-bats per game, what are your chances of batting at least .400 over the course of the 60-game season? And how does this compare to your chances of batting at least .400 over the course of a 162-game season?
Extra credit: Some statistics are less achievable in a shortened season. What are your chances of getting a hit in at least 56 consecutive games, tying or breaking Joe DiMaggio’s record, in a 60-game season? And how does this compare to your chances in a 162-game season? (Again, suppose your true batting average is .350 and you have four at-bats per game.)
Extra extra credit: In a 60-game season, what are your chances of both batting at least .400 and getting a hit in at least 56 consecutive games?
The solution to this Riddler Express can be found in the following week’s column.
Riddler Classic
From Jason Shaw comes a new twist on an old fable:
The tortoise and the hare are about to begin a 10-mile race along a “stretch” of road. The tortoise is driving a car that travels 60 miles per hour, while the hare is driving a car that travels 75 miles per hour. (For the purposes of this problem, assume that both cars accelerate from 0 miles per hour to their cruising speed instantaneously.)
The hare does a quick mental calculation and realizes if it waits until two minutes have passed, they’ll cross the finish line at the exact same moment. And so, when the race begins, the tortoise drives off while the hare patiently waits.
But one minute into the race, after the tortoise has driven 1 mile, something extraordinary happens. The road turns out to be magical and instantaneously stretches by 10 miles! As a result of this stretching, the tortoise is now 2 miles ahead of the hare, who remains at the starting line.
At the end of every subsequent minute, the road stretches by 10 miles. With this in mind, the hare does some more mental math.
How long after the race has begun should the hare wait so that both the tortoise and the hare will cross the finish line at the same exact moment?
The solution to this Riddler Classic can be found in the following week’s column.
Solution to last week’s Riddler Express
Congratulations to 👏 Seth Weinberg 👏 of Columbus, Ohio, 👏 Ryan Quattlebaum 👏 of Holly Springs, North Carolina, 👏 Garland Castaneda 👏 of Modesto, California and 👏 Jake Hancock 👏 of Atlanta, Georgia, winners of last week’s Riddler Express.
Last week, you played the Riddler version of the 24 Game. Your goal was to make a numerical expression that equals 24, using each of four given numbers once, along with parentheses, addition, subtraction, multiplication, division and exponentiation — that last one being a fun wrinkle.
For example, if I had given you the numbers 1, 2, 3 and 8, then valid solutions would have been 8×3×(2−1) and (3+1)×(8−2), since they both equal 24. However, concatenation was not an allowed operation, which meant (32−8)×1 was not a solution — that is, you couldn’t smush the 3 and the 2 together to get 32.
Given the four numbers 2, 3, 3 and 4, how could you make 24?
As it turned out, there was no way to get 24 using just parentheses, addition, subtraction, multiplication and division. There were four different classes of solutions, and every single one of them involved exponentiation:
(3 2 −3)×4, which was found by Seth.
−3)×4, which was found by Seth. (4−2) 3 ×3, which was found by Garland.
×3, which was found by Garland. (4÷2) 3 ×3, which was found by Ryan.
×3, which was found by Ryan. 4(3/2)×3, which was found by Jake.
Each of these solutions could also be rearranged to find several more. For example, (4÷2)3×3 could also have been written as 3×(4÷2)3, or even as 3÷(2÷4)3.
I honestly thought that the last one, 4(3/2)×3, would stump most solvers. After all, noninteger exponents aren’t something most people encounter every day. But I was wrong — more than 10 percent of solvers answered with 4(3/2)×3 or an equivalent expression. I should never have doubted Riddler Nation!
A few solvers had some extra fun and submitted their own, even more challenging sets of numbers. How many ways can you make 24 with each of the following numbers?
2, 3, 10 and 10 (courtesy of Emma Knight)
3, 3, 8 and 8 (also courtesy of Emma Knight)
2, 3, 6 and 6 (courtesy of Andrew Heairet)
0, 0, 2 and 5 (courtesy of João Coelho)
Finally, while this seemed to be a conventional pencil-and-paper sort of riddle, a few solvers turned to their computers, having them generate every possible combination of the four numbers, the allowed operations and parentheses. For example, João’s C++ code and Scott Carr’s MATLAB code ran through the thousands of possibilities, finding every last expression that equals 24.
Scott and João further found that 37 was the smallest number you could not make with 2, 3, 3 and 4. Sounds like the makings of another riddle…
Solution to last week’s Riddler Classic
Congratulations to 👏 Tobias Tapirello 👏 of Budapest, Hungary, winner of last week’s Riddler Classic.
Last week, you were playing with a toy that had five rings of different diameters and a tapered column. Each ring had a “correct” position on the column, from the largest ring that fit snugly at the bottom to the smallest ring that fit snugly at the top.
When placed on the column, each ring slid down to its correct position, if possible. Otherwise, it rested on what was previously the topmost ring.
For example, if you stacked the smallest ring first, then you couldn’t stack any more rings on top. But if you stacked the second-smallest ring first, then you could stack any one of the remaining four rings above it, after which you couldn’t stack any more rings.
For example, here were four different stacks you could make:
How many unique stacks could you create using at least one ring?
First off, there were 31 stacks that resulted in each ring being in its correct position. That’s because each of the five rings could be on the stack or off it — two possibilities. So the number of such stacks was 2×2×2×2×2, or 32. Subtracting the one stack with no rings on it meant there were 31 unique stacks.
So then what about stacks with rings that were not in their correct position, but rather lying atop smaller rings? Counting up all these stacks, while being sure not to miss or double count any, got you to the heart of this puzzle.
One approach was to draw them all out, as solver Allen Gu did (with the help of his computer):
That’s all of them! It turned out there were a grand total of 65 unique stacks.
For extra credit, you were asked to find a general solution, the number of unique stacks given N rings. In working this out, many solvers tried their hand at stacks with fewer rings:
With one ring, there was one possible stack.
With two rings, there were three possible stacks.
With three rings, there were eight possible stacks.
With four rings, there were 22 possible stacks.
A pattern wasn’t immediately obvious. As noted by solver Meghan O’Keefe, the key was to divide the original problem up into five cases, depending on the number of rings you ultimately wanted on the stack.
There were five ways to place exactly one ring on the stack — one way for each ring. That wasn’t too hard. If you wanted exactly two rings on the stack, the first ring you placed couldn’t have been the topmost ring, because you couldn’t place a second ring above it. That meant you had four choices for the first ring. And the second ring could have been any ring except the one you already placed — again, four choices. So in all, there were 4×4, or 42, unique stacks with two rings.
What if you wanted a stack with three rings? Then the first ring couldn’t have been one of the top two rings, meaning it had to be one of the bottom three rings. Which ring could you have placed second? It couldn’t have been the ring you just placed, nor could it have been the topmost ring, which again left you with three rings to choose from. Which ring could you have placed third? It couldn’t have been either of the two rings you just placed, but the other three were all fair game. So in all, there were 3×3×3, or 33, unique stacks with three rings.
This pattern continued for any number of desired rings — with each ring you placed, it worked out that you still had the exact same number of rings to choose from. Including the cases with four or five desired rings, the total number of stacks was 51 + 42 + 33 + 24 + 15, which, sure enough, equals 65.
In general, given N rings, there are N1 + (N−1)2 + … + 2(N−1) + 1N unique stacks. This number grows rather quickly with N. And yes, these numbers have their own OEIS sequence.
I’m pleased to say there was no shortage of creative solutions to this extra credit. Josh Silverman arrived at the solution via recursion and telescoping, while Lucas Fagan impressively solved it using the inclusion-exclusion principle.
Oh, and just for fun, here are all 209 unique stacks when there are six rings (again courtesy of Allen Gu):
Want more riddles?
Well, aren’t you lucky? There’s a whole book full of the best puzzles from this column and some never-before-seen head-scratchers. It’s called “The Riddler,” and it’s in stores now!
Want to submit a riddle?
Email Zach Wissner-Gross at riddlercolumn@gmail.com.


fivethirthyeight--2020-07-18--When Does A Pandemic Start To Erode Civil Liberties?

Mask mandates have become a polarizing issue across the country , from Arizona to Georgia .
So , where do @ @ @ @ @ public health and civil liberties ?
That ’ s our main topic on this week @ @ @ @ @ we talk about air — if the novel coronavirus can spread through tiny droplets , @ @ @ @ @ ’ s safe to breathe during the pandemic ?
And finally , some good vaccine @ @ @ @ @ want to miss an episode of PODCAST-19 , FiveThirtyEight ’ s weekly look at what @ @ @ @ @ we know we don ’ t know — about COVID-19 ?
Subscribe on your favorite @ @ @ @ @ , here ’ s where to do it on Apple Podcasts and Spotify .

Mask mandates have become a polarizing issue across the country, from Arizona to Georgia. So where do we draw the line between public health and civil liberties? That’s our main topic on this week’s PODCAST-19. Then we talk about air — if the novel coronavirus can spread through tiny droplets, how can buildings ensure it’s safe to breathe during the pandemic? And finally, some good vaccine news!
Don’t want to miss an episode of PODCAST-19, FiveThirtyEight’s weekly look at what we know — and what we know we don’t know — about COVID-19? Subscribe on your favorite podcasting app! For example, here’s where to do it on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.


fivethirthyeight--2020-07-20--How To Make Indoor Air Safer

How To Make Indoor Air Safer

If you ’ re waiting for a break from bad news about COVID , don ’ t hold your breath — or , actually , do hold your breath .
Experts have understood for months that the novel coronavirus , which causes COVID-19 , can be spread by hitching a ride inside large respiratory droplets that are expelled when someone coughs , sneezes or talks .
But there ’ s growing evidence that smaller airborne particles called aerosols can carry and spread the virus , too .
The methods for preventing spread from respiratory droplets are familiar : social distancing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
But the methods for stopping aerosols , which are lightweight and may be able to hang in the air for hours , are less obvious and often rely on technology .
But can something like an air filter really stop a seemingly unstoppable pandemic ?
Let ’ s start with the basics .
The larger respiratory droplets that are known to spread the coronavirus are larger bits of spit and mucus that a person propels outward when they forcefully exhale .
If the person is infectious , these droplets can be spiked @ @ @ @ @ @ @ can find their way to your nose , mouth or eyes , can enter your body and cause infection .
The droplets are between 5 and 10 microns across ( a human hair is , on average , roughly 70 microns in diameter ) , and they ’ re heavy , as far as bodily secretions go , so they quickly fall to the floor — or nearby surface , or nearby facial orifice .
But when we talk or laugh or sing or even just breathe , we also produce smaller , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ) that evaporate before gravity can do its thing , causing the dried remnants to stay aloft like a microscopic feather .
At the start of the pandemic , experts weren ’ t sure if these aerosols could contain enough virus or hang around long enough to actually infect anybody .
A person can ’ t be infected by inhaling one or two viruses — they need to be exposed to a certain concentration of the virus before it can gain a foothold , though experts still aren ’ t sure what this @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is .
But now there ’ s growing evidence that , yes , the aerosols carry the virus and , in a high enough concentration , can cause infection .
“ It ’ s sort of a process of elimination .
You get to the point where you say , ‘ It sort of looks like aerosol transmission , ’ ” said Lisa M. Brosseau , a research consultant at the University of Minnesota ’ s Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy .
“ In the midst of a pandemic , that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ take what evidence you have , what you can observe , and you draw conclusions from that.
” When people are outside , aerosol transmission is less of a concern because in wide-open spaces , these particles are quickly dispersed and diluted , making it difficult for an infectious concentration to accumulate , Brosseau said .
It ’ s like dropping some food coloring into a river .
But indoors , especially if the ventilation is poor , it ’ s much easier for aerosols to accumulate — more like dropping food coloring @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , you can ’ t avoid taking a dip in those murky waters .
The good news is there are ways to dilute and clear out aerosols from indoor spaces .
But it requires more effort .
Opening a window can help because it forces fresh air in , and some of the contaminated air will make its way outside .
“ There is no doubt that , over time , on average , the concentration of aerosols is going to go down if you open up the windows , ” said Rajat @ @ @ @ @ @ @ studies aerodynamics at Johns Hopkins University .
But if you ’ re , say , sitting in a classroom in Minnesota in January , or Arizona in September , opening up the windows might not be the most practical solution .
Instead , school boards and offices should look to their heating , ventilation and air conditioning ( HVAC ) systems .
But you can ’ t just shuffle air around the building — that could spread the virus to even more places .
Instead , you have to replace the air itself @ @ @ @ @ @ @ change by one of two ways , ” said David Krause , a certified industrial hygienist and the owner of HealthCare Consulting and Contracting .
The first is “ through the gross changeout of air , bringing in outside air and exhausting air from the room .
Or you can achieve it by using high-efficiency filters that effectively remove virus-containing particles from the air.
” Filters can capture virus-laden particles through a number of methods , including physically trapping them with a fine enough filter and using electrostatic attraction to charge particles and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ air .
To catch the tiny aerosols that might be carrying the coronavirus , filters need a high enough MERV — yes , MERV .
Surely you ’ ve heard of the minimum efficiency reporting value before , no ?
A filter with a MERV rating of 1 , for example , will capture less than 20 percent of particles that are 3 to 10 microns across .
As the MERV rating increases , so does the number of particles it captures , along with the amount of force an HVAC system needs @ @ @ @ @ @ @ filter .
To effectively neutralize indoor transmission of the novel coronavirus , you ’ d need a MERV of at least 13 , according to the American Society of Heating , Refrigerating and Air-Conditioning Engineers ( ASHRAE ) .
“ We ’ re not recommending major modifications to most air conditioning systems .
Many of them can simply change out one efficiency of filter for another , ” said William Bahnfleth , a professor of architectural engineering at Pennsylvania State University and the chair of ASHRAE ’ s epidemic task force .
“ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ air conditioner.
” But changing out the filter alone might not be enough .
Krause pointed to guidelines from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention , which were published before the COVID-19 pandemic , that outline exactly what standards buildings need to have to achieve “ airborne infection isolation , ” which means stopping the spread of aerosols smaller than 5 microns .
At a minimum , buildings need to be reaching six air changes per hour , according to these CDC guidelines .
Krause said the average commercial building now only @ @ @ @ @ @ @ hour , and could squeeze in another with an air filtration system .
“ The other four and a half or five air changes per hour , you ’ re really going to have to rely on in-room , standalone , HEPA filter air cleaners , ” Krause said , referring to high efficiency particulate air filters .
“ We should be looking at these if we have any illusions of sending kids back to school.
” All that filtration can be expensive , though .
A commercial-sized MERV-13 filter can cost three @ @ @ @ @ @ @ filter , and portable air cleaners can be up to $ 1,000 each , according to Krause , so the cost for offices and schools is not small .
And using a filtration system creates a new risk for whoever has to change out the virus-soaked filters .
Still , HVAC systems can ’ t guarantee 100 percent safety .
The idea behind all these air changes and filters is to dilute and clean the air so that aerosols can ’ t build up into high concentrations .
But it ’ s impossible @ @ @ @ @ @ @ sucked up by a filter or a ventilation system before it gets sucked up by a person , especially if a lot of people are close together for long periods of time .
Ultraviolet light filters could also help : UV light can kill microorganisms , including viruses , but the experts I spoke to raised concerns about this method .
For one , killing the virus this way requires continually exposing it to UV light for several minutes — if it simply floats by a light , such as one in a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
For another , UV has other potential risks , including skin and eye damage .
Regardless of what building managers choose to do , their efforts will be moot if people aren ’ t also taking measures to prevent the spread of COVID-19 through respiratory droplets by wearing masks , washing their hands frequently and practicing social distancing .
All the open windows in the world can ’ t help if you ’ re swallowing globs of virus-laden spit .

If you’re waiting for a break from bad news about COVID, don’t hold your breath — or, actually, do hold your breath.
Experts have understood for months that the novel coronavirus, which causes COVID-19, can be spread by hitching a ride inside large respiratory droplets that are expelled when someone coughs, sneezes or talks. But there’s growing evidence that smaller airborne particles called aerosols can carry and spread the virus, too.
The methods for preventing spread from respiratory droplets are familiar: social distancing, frequent hand-washing and wearing a mask. But the methods for stopping aerosols, which are lightweight and may be able to hang in the air for hours, are less obvious and often rely on technology. But can something like an air filter really stop a seemingly unstoppable pandemic?
Let’s start with the basics. The larger respiratory droplets that are known to spread the coronavirus are larger bits of spit and mucus that a person propels outward when they forcefully exhale. If the person is infectious, these droplets can be spiked with virus particles which, if they can find their way to your nose, mouth or eyes, can enter your body and cause infection. The droplets are between 5 and 10 microns across (a human hair is, on average, roughly 70 microns in diameter), and they’re heavy, as far as bodily secretions go, so they quickly fall to the floor — or nearby surface, or nearby facial orifice. But when we talk or laugh or sing or even just breathe, we also produce smaller, lighter droplets (less than 5 microns) that evaporate before gravity can do its thing, causing the dried remnants to stay aloft like a microscopic feather.
At the start of the pandemic, experts weren’t sure if these aerosols could contain enough virus or hang around long enough to actually infect anybody. A person can’t be infected by inhaling one or two viruses — they need to be exposed to a certain concentration of the virus before it can gain a foothold, though experts still aren’t sure what this threshold, called the infectious dose, is. But now there’s growing evidence that, yes, the aerosols carry the virus and, in a high enough concentration, can cause infection.
[Related: Where The Latest COVID-19 Models Think We’re Headed — And Why They Disagree]
“It’s sort of a process of elimination. You get to the point where you say, ‘It sort of looks like aerosol transmission,’” said Lisa M. Brosseau, a research consultant at the University of Minnesota’s Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy. “In the midst of a pandemic, that’s what you have. You take what evidence you have, what you can observe, and you draw conclusions from that.”
When people are outside, aerosol transmission is less of a concern because in wide-open spaces, these particles are quickly dispersed and diluted, making it difficult for an infectious concentration to accumulate, Brosseau said. It’s like dropping some food coloring into a river. But indoors, especially if the ventilation is poor, it’s much easier for aerosols to accumulate — more like dropping food coloring into a birdbath.
Sometimes, though, you can’t avoid taking a dip in those murky waters. The good news is there are ways to dilute and clear out aerosols from indoor spaces. But it requires more effort.
Opening a window can help because it forces fresh air in, and some of the contaminated air will make its way outside. “There is no doubt that, over time, on average, the concentration of aerosols is going to go down if you open up the windows,” said Rajat Mittal, a mechanical engineering professor who studies aerodynamics at Johns Hopkins University.
But if you’re, say, sitting in a classroom in Minnesota in January, or Arizona in September, opening up the windows might not be the most practical solution.
Instead, school boards and offices should look to their heating, ventilation and air conditioning (HVAC) systems. But you can’t just shuffle air around the building — that could spread the virus to even more places. Instead, you have to replace the air itself.
“You can achieve an air change by one of two ways,” said David Krause, a certified industrial hygienist and the owner of HealthCare Consulting and Contracting. The first is “through the gross changeout of air, bringing in outside air and exhausting air from the room. Or you can achieve it by using high-efficiency filters that effectively remove virus-containing particles from the air.”
Subscribe to our coronavirus podcast, PODCAST-19
Filters can capture virus-laden particles through a number of methods, including physically trapping them with a fine enough filter and using electrostatic attraction to charge particles and force them to settle out of the air.
To catch the tiny aerosols that might be carrying the coronavirus, filters need a high enough MERV — yes, MERV. Surely you’ve heard of the minimum efficiency reporting value before, no? A filter with a MERV rating of 1, for example, will capture less than 20 percent of particles that are 3 to 10 microns across. As the MERV rating increases, so does the number of particles it captures, along with the amount of force an HVAC system needs to push the air through the fine filter.
To effectively neutralize indoor transmission of the novel coronavirus, you’d need a MERV of at least 13, according to the American Society of Heating, Refrigerating and Air-Conditioning Engineers (ASHRAE).
“We’re not recommending major modifications to most air conditioning systems. Many of them can simply change out one efficiency of filter for another,” said William Bahnfleth, a professor of architectural engineering at Pennsylvania State University and the chair of ASHRAE’s epidemic task force. “I have MERV-13 filters in my home air conditioner.”
But changing out the filter alone might not be enough. Krause pointed to guidelines from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, which were published before the COVID-19 pandemic, that outline exactly what standards buildings need to have to achieve “airborne infection isolation,” which means stopping the spread of aerosols smaller than 5 microns. At a minimum, buildings need to be reaching six air changes per hour, according to these CDC guidelines. Krause said the average commercial building now only performs one or two air changes per hour, and could squeeze in another with an air filtration system.
[Related: How Americans View The Coronavirus Crisis And Trump’s Response]
“The other four and a half or five air changes per hour, you’re really going to have to rely on in-room, standalone, HEPA filter air cleaners,” Krause said, referring to high efficiency particulate air filters. “We should be looking at these if we have any illusions of sending kids back to school.”
All that filtration can be expensive, though. A commercial-sized MERV-13 filter can cost three to four times more than a lower-standard filter, and portable air cleaners can be up to $1,000 each, according to Krause, so the cost for offices and schools is not small. And using a filtration system creates a new risk for whoever has to change out the virus-soaked filters.
Still, HVAC systems can’t guarantee 100 percent safety. The idea behind all these air changes and filters is to dilute and clean the air so that aerosols can’t build up into high concentrations. But it’s impossible to guarantee that an aerosol will get sucked up by a filter or a ventilation system before it gets sucked up by a person, especially if a lot of people are close together for long periods of time.
Ultraviolet light filters could also help: UV light can kill microorganisms, including viruses, but the experts I spoke to raised concerns about this method. For one, killing the virus this way requires continually exposing it to UV light for several minutes — if it simply floats by a light, such as one in a vent, that might not be enough. For another, UV has other potential risks, including skin and eye damage.
Regardless of what building managers choose to do, their efforts will be moot if people aren’t also taking measures to prevent the spread of COVID-19 through respiratory droplets by wearing masks, washing their hands frequently and practicing social distancing. All the open windows in the world can’t help if you’re swallowing globs of virus-laden spit.
An interview with Dr. Anthony Fauci | FiveThirtyEight


fivethirthyeight--2020-07-20--Politics Podcast: There Aren’t Secret Trump Voters

A recent Monmouth poll showed that a majority of Pennsylvanians — 57 percent — believe there are “ secret voters @ @ @ @ @ support Trump but won ’ t tell anyone about it .
In this installment of @ @ @ @ @ the crew explains why that is unlikely .
They also consider the future of Black @ @ @ @ @ Civil Rights Era , like Rep. John Lewis , leave office .
Plus , they @ @ @ @ @ of the race for the Senate .
You can listen to the episode by clicking @ @ @ @ @ in the audio player above or by downloading it in iTunes , the ESPN App @ @ @ @ @ .
If you are new to podcasts , learn how to listen .
The FiveThirtyEight @ @ @ @ @ Thursdays .
Help new listeners discover the show by leaving us a rating and review @ @ @ @ @ comment , question or suggestion for “ good polling vs. bad polling ” ?
Get @ @ @ @ @ on Twitter or in the comments .

A recent Monmouth poll showed that a majority of Pennsylvanians — 57 percent — believe there are “secret” voters in their communities who support Trump but won’t tell anyone about it. In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the crew explains why that is unlikely. They also consider the future of Black politics as politicians who were leaders of the civil rights movement, like Rep. John Lewis, die or leave office. Plus, they check in on the state of the race for the Senate.
FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast: There Aren’t Secret Trump Voters
You can listen to the episode by clicking the “play” button in the audio player above or by downloading it in iTunes, the ESPN App or your favorite podcast platform. If you are new to podcasts, learn how to listen.
The FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast publishes Mondays and Thursdays. Help new listeners discover the show by leaving us a rating and review on iTunes. Have a comment, question or suggestion for “good polling vs. bad polling”? Get in touch by email, on Twitter or in the comments.


fivethirthyeight--2020-07-20--Canceled Races Aren’t Stopping Endurance Athletes From Setting Wild New Records

Just before 6:30 a.m. on June 15 , sleep-deprived and feet afire with blisters , Joe “ Stringbean ” McConaughy crossed over Vermont ’ s border with Massachusetts .
After subsisting mostly on watery mashed Oreos and Fritos for the final miles , McConaughy finished a grueling trek along Vermont ’ s Long Trail in 4 days , 23 hours and 54 minutes — the fastest an athlete has been known to traverse the entire trail without a prearranged support crew .
The 273-mile trail through the Green Mountains takes an average hiker between 20 and 30 days to complete @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , knee-deep muddy stretches and varying terrain from thick forest to alpine tundra .
It is the oldest long-distance trail in the United States and one of the classics for attempting a fastest known time .
Fastest known times , or FKTs , are set by endurance athletes running or hiking a route , either alone or in teams .
The goal is to set an unofficial record for finishing a course in the shortest possible time .
In an FKT attempt , there are no bibs , no crowds and no medals @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the lip of the Grand Canyon , athletes are able to compete while maintaining physical distance from others .
It just might be the perfect coronavirus pursuit .
And as it turns out , the FKT scene has exploded this year .
As COVID-19 shut down state after state , many organized endurance races were canceled or rescheduled .
The New York City Marathon — which would have celebrated its golden anniversary this year — and the never-before-canceled Boston Marathon are among the most well-known and highly anticipated races that have been nixed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ races Ultra Trail du Mont-Blanc in Europe and Barkley Marathon in Tennessee have also been scrapped this year .
For athletes who ramped themselves into peak form for spring and summer marathons , there are a few options other than scaling back their training plans .
They could do what one guy did and run a marathon on his terrace during lockdown .
They could join a number of virtual races .
Or , they could lace up and run through the night from the Canadian border to Massachusetts , like McConaughy did @ @ @ @ @ @ @ suit ?
We took a look at the data from FastestKnownTime.com , the central website for submitting FKTs , to see just how many records have fallen so far this year .
Runners submitted 3.8 times as many FKTs through June of this year as in the same period a year ago .
“ Not only in the numbers , but there ’ s been a huge uptick in the amount of work for us , ” said Peter Bakwin , one of the creators of FastestKnownTime.com .
There is no official governing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ but Bakwin and his co-founders , Buzz Burrell and Jeff Schuler , act as the volunteer commissioners for approving routes and verifying times .
FKT attempts had been gaining in popularity even before this year , but submissions in the past few months reflect the type of growth Bakwin and Burrell expected to see five years from now .
Many of the submissions cited canceled races as the reason for the FKT attempt , they said .
Some associations that care for long-distance trails like the Appalachian Trail and Pacific Crest Trail are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ hikes this year to avoid spreading the virus on trails and into nearby towns .
Those who hit the trails anyway are advised to stay local and be self-supported ( so , carry what you need on and off the trail and avoid going into local towns or using trail amenities like outhouses ) .
Because rules and recommendations have changed often in the past few months , Bakwin and Burrell are reluctant to play police .
“ Early on we did have to confront that question and basically we don ’ t @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s legal with changing laws — we just don ’ t have the capacity to do that , ” Bakwin said .
But the site is also getting submissions from people who are creating their own local adventures , which means many new , interesting routes .
A loop through Central Park might not seem creative on its face , but Aaron Zellheofer added an interesting new mechanic : Rather than running a single loop as fast as he could , he aimed to run as many laps of the main road as @ @ @ @ @ @ @ was open ( 6 a.m. to 1 a.m. ) .
He ran 11 6.1-mile laps .
“ We were OK with it because Central Park truly is classic , the route around the park is defined , and his timing was also very defined , ” Burrell said .
“ And there are millions of people who live right there , so that ’ s one that a lot of people could contest , ” Bakwin added .
Lockdowns have left many with time to plan routes and strategies for an FKT .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ runners only have to adhere to a fairly vague seven-point list when crafting a route .
That flexibility also allows nonelite runners to submit a route ’ s first FKT , earning them a spot on the website .
“ Often they ’ ll [ submit a route and ] say , ‘ My time can easily be beat , ’ ” Bakwin said .
“ But , you know — if you can ’ t be fast , be first.
” Though the majority of the site ’ s FKTs are for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ can be submitted for courses in any country .
And this year , Bakwin said he has seen a surge of routes in Europe , particularly from Germany , Sweden , Belgium , the Netherlands , Poland and the U.K. “ I don ’ t know why , but some countries are totally into it , ” Bakwin said .
“ I think they must have just got wind of it , and when one or two guys start talking about it over it there , I ’ m guessing the community is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 2020 , Bakwin and Burrell put together a list of 10 “ premier routes ” ( all in the United States ) to encourage FKT attempts this year .
The goal is to attract more elite athletes who are more likely to have a corporate sponsor who will help track and document the attempt , which the site ’ s organizers hoped will quell some verification controversies in previous FKTs .
FastestKnownTimes.com breaks record attempts down into three categories : supported ( getting help or supplies from people you ’ ve arranged to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , self-supported ( no prearranged help , but cadging food or water from people you happen across is allowed ) and unsupported ( you carry everything you need from start to finish . )
McConaughy had set out to attempt an unsupported FKT on the Long Trail , but he ended up accepting water along the route , turning his trek — in which he cruised at around 54 miles a day — into a self-supported FKT .
Less than a month later , Brett Mastrangelo attempted to usurp McConaughy ’ s record @ @ @ @ @ @ @ days in because of a leg injury .
And plenty of other athletes are making their FKT attempts on premier routes this year : Sarah Hansel just completed the first unsupported women ’ s attempt at Nolan ’ s 14 ( a route covering 14 mountains in Colorado ) on July 8 , while Avery Collins started the trail but did not finish .
Liz Anjos is in the second week of her attempt on the Appalachian Trail .
Two others are publicly posting the tracker data during their FKT attempts as they @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on the Colorado Trail .
Will the popularity of the FKT continue ?
Before the pandemic , Bakwin and Burrell couldn ’ t have predicted that the sport would catch fire this year , and they ’ re not sure what to expect after races can safely start again .
“ The unforeseen consequences of a global pandemic are many and surprising , ” Bakwin said .
“ I would guess that once races start happening again , some of the traffic will taper off , but some people will have found a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of their training and racing season rather than races .
”

Just before 6:30 a.m. on June 15, sleep-deprived and feet afire with blisters, Joe “Stringbean” McConaughy crossed over Vermont’s border with Massachusetts. After subsisting mostly on watery mashed Oreos and Fritos for the final miles, McConaughy finished a grueling trek along Vermont’s Long Trail in 4 days, 23 hours and 54 minutes — the fastest an athlete has been known to traverse the entire trail without a prearranged support crew. The 273-mile trail through the Green Mountains takes an average hiker between 20 and 30 days to complete and is known for relentless black flies, knee-deep muddy stretches and varying terrain from thick forest to alpine tundra. It is the oldest long-distance trail in the United States and one of the classics for attempting a fastest known time.
Fastest known times, or FKTs, are set by endurance athletes running or hiking a route, either alone or in teams. The goal is to set an unofficial record for finishing a course in the shortest possible time. In an FKT attempt, there are no bibs, no crowds and no medals. Whether deep in Appalachia or on the lip of the Grand Canyon, athletes are able to compete while maintaining physical distance from others. It just might be the perfect coronavirus pursuit. And as it turns out, the FKT scene has exploded this year.
As COVID-19 shut down state after state, many organized endurance races were canceled or rescheduled. The New York City Marathon — which would have celebrated its golden anniversary this year — and the never-before-canceled Boston Marathon are among the most well-known and highly anticipated races that have been nixed. In the ultra-trail-running world, cornerstone races Ultra Trail du Mont-Blanc in Europe and Barkley Marathon in Tennessee have also been scrapped this year.
For athletes who ramped themselves into peak form for spring and summer marathons, there are a few options other than scaling back their training plans. They could do what one guy did and run a marathon on his terrace during lockdown. They could join a number of virtual races. Or, they could lace up and run through the night from the Canadian border to Massachusetts, like McConaughy did.
So how many athletes are following suit? We took a look at the data from FastestKnownTime.com, the central website for submitting FKTs, to see just how many records have fallen so far this year.
Runners submitted 3.8 times as many FKTs through June of this year as in the same period a year ago. “Not only in the numbers, but there’s been a huge uptick in the amount of work for us,” said Peter Bakwin, one of the creators of FastestKnownTime.com. There is no official governing organization for FKT routes and records, but Bakwin and his co-founders, Buzz Burrell and Jeff Schuler, act as the volunteer commissioners for approving routes and verifying times. FKT attempts had been gaining in popularity even before this year, but submissions in the past few months reflect the type of growth Bakwin and Burrell expected to see five years from now. Many of the submissions cited canceled races as the reason for the FKT attempt, they said.
Some associations that care for long-distance trails like the Appalachian Trail and Pacific Crest Trail are recommending that through-hikers postpone or cancel their hikes this year to avoid spreading the virus on trails and into nearby towns. Those who hit the trails anyway are advised to stay local and be self-supported (so, carry what you need on and off the trail and avoid going into local towns or using trail amenities like outhouses). Because rules and recommendations have changed often in the past few months, Bakwin and Burrell are reluctant to play police. “Early on we did have to confront that question and basically we don’t want to have to verify what’s legal with changing laws — we just don’t have the capacity to do that,” Bakwin said.
But the site is also getting submissions from people who are creating their own local adventures, which means many new, interesting routes. A loop through Central Park might not seem creative on its face, but Aaron Zellheofer added an interesting new mechanic: Rather than running a single loop as fast as he could, he aimed to run as many laps of the main road as he could during the hours the park was open (6 a.m. to 1 a.m.). He ran 11 6.1-mile laps.
“We were OK with it because Central Park truly is classic, the route around the park is defined, and his timing was also very defined,” Burrell said. “And there are millions of people who live right there, so that’s one that a lot of people could contest,” Bakwin added.
Lockdowns have left many with time to plan routes and strategies for an FKT. The sport is inherently creative in that runners only have to adhere to a fairly vague seven-point list when crafting a route. That flexibility also allows nonelite runners to submit a route’s first FKT, earning them a spot on the website. “Often they’ll [submit a route and] say, ‘My time can easily be beat,’” Bakwin said. “But, you know — if you can’t be fast, be first.”
Though the majority of the site’s FKTs are for routes in the United States, times can be submitted for courses in any country. And this year, Bakwin said he has seen a surge of routes in Europe, particularly from Germany, Sweden, Belgium, the Netherlands, Poland and the U.K. “I don’t know why, but some countries are totally into it,” Bakwin said. “I think they must have just got wind of it, and when one or two guys start talking about it over it there, I’m guessing the community is not that big.”
In preparation for 2020, Bakwin and Burrell put together a list of 10 “premier routes” (all in the United States) to encourage FKT attempts this year. The goal is to attract more elite athletes who are more likely to have a corporate sponsor who will help track and document the attempt, which the site’s organizers hoped will quell some verification controversies in previous FKTs.
FastestKnownTimes.com breaks record attempts down into three categories: supported (getting help or supplies from people you’ve arranged to meet up with along the way), self-supported (no prearranged help, but cadging food or water from people you happen across is allowed) and unsupported (you carry everything you need from start to finish. ) McConaughy had set out to attempt an unsupported FKT on the Long Trail, but he ended up accepting water along the route, turning his trek — in which he cruised at around 54 miles a day — into a self-supported FKT. Less than a month later, Brett Mastrangelo attempted to usurp McConaughy’s record but had to call it quits two days in because of a leg injury. And plenty of other athletes are making their FKT attempts on premier routes this year: Sarah Hansel just completed the first unsupported women’s attempt at Nolan’s 14 (a route covering 14 mountains in Colorado) on July 8, while Avery Collins started the trail but did not finish. Liz Anjos is in the second week of her attempt on the Appalachian Trail. Two others are publicly posting the tracker data during their FKT attempts as they challenge the current supported and self-supported records on the Colorado Trail.
Will the popularity of the FKT continue? Before the pandemic, Bakwin and Burrell couldn’t have predicted that the sport would catch fire this year, and they’re not sure what to expect after races can safely start again. “The unforeseen consequences of a global pandemic are many and surprising,” Bakwin said. “I would guess that once races start happening again, some of the traffic will taper off, but some people will have found a new thing that they will make part of their training and racing season rather than races.”