fivethirthyeight--2020-06-26--Liverpool Won It All This Year. Can The Reds Do It Again?

cwick ( Chadwick Matlin , deputy editor ) : Grace !
Tony !
Ryan !
We ’ re back !
After months away from professional soccer and these chats , we ’ ve blown the klaxon and assembled again .
Very excited to talk about soccer with all of you , especially on the occasion of a new champion !
After decades in the wilderness and what seemed like centuries of hype , Liverpool has finally won a championship again .
It came thanks to a Manchester City loss to Chelsea on Thursday , a fitting anticlimax in a season @ @ @ @ @ @ @ has been defined by interruption .
Ryan , Grace — you ’ re Liverpool fans .
How are you celebrating ?
?
tchow ( Tony Chow , video producer ) : This chat already smells like expensive popped Champagne , and I ’ m so jealous .
Just kidding .
Liverpool won a very , very well-deserved title .
What are you all doing here chatting ?
GO CELEBRATE !
ryan ( Ryan O ’ Hanlon , FiveThirtyEight contributor and author of the No Grass in the Clouds newsletter ) : I ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Slack with two of my favorite data-adjacent Liverpool fans and a fan of , well , whatever team Tony is officially rooting for right now .
Then , I ’ m going to write a newsletter .
And after that , I don ’ t know .
I think it ’ ll be a similar feeling to when they won the Champions League last year .
I would forget that they had won , then I ’ d remember , and I would get these little bits of happiness out of nowhere .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
This ?
I don ’ t think it ’ ll fade away that fast .
tchow : I actually haven ’ t heard from Grace in a while , and you know what ?
Good for her !
grace ( Grace Robertson , FiveThirtyEight contributor and author of the Grace on Football newsletter ) : I had a bit of an ugly cry and now I ’ m ready to process it .
tchow : What does a happy ugly cry feel like ?
I can ’ t relate .
grace : @ @ @ @ @ @ @ my lifetime , so I don ’ t know the words for these emotions .
cwick : I have to admit that the COVID-19 break sapped some of the power of this for me .
Sports is all about the ongoing narrative of a season , and the soccer over the last week has felt distinct from the soccer of the fall and winter .
It feels a little like a team being declared champions a couple games into preseason .
ryan : I ’ ve never had a soccer team I care @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ( The Gold Cup does not count . )
I think I ’ ve celebrated in tiny bursts with each successive win this year .
It ’ s not like winning a championship match or game — no final exhalation — but the past two years have just been so , so impressive .
I don ’ t think it can get much better than what Jürgen Klopp and Co. have done .
tchow : I have a genuine question , though , now that you all have processed this .
Would you @ @ @ @ @ @ @ own , like next week ?
Or is this just as good ?
grace : I think in a pre-COVID world , I would ’ ve strongly felt it was best to win it at Anfield , but since then I ’ ve just wanted it done ASAP .
ryan : I feel the same way .
It ’ s a shame it couldn ’ t be in front of a packed Anfield , but there will be a party at some point .
Klopp will get drunk on Zoom .
James Milner @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ ll be great .
cwick : I would have preferred to clinch it while playing .
I want to see Mo Salah ’ s beatific smile .
I want to watch Klopp vibrate the air with his fist pumps .
And I want to see Trent Alexander-Arnold celebrate like the child he is .
tchow : Is TAA old enough to drink ?
tchow : I keep thinking back to those videos of the Leicester team hanging out and watching the Chelsea-Spurs game together back in 2016 and thinking that was actually @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , since that ’ s not even possible , this all feels more removed , so winning in any form is just as good .
A title is a title .
ryan : Yeah , I do think the weirdness of it all has way less to do with the nature of how soccer awards its champs and much more to do with , you know , [ gestures vaguely toward the sky ] .
grace : To be honest , it was more a negative emotion than anything .
It was more @ @ @ @ @ @ @ it for 30 years than winning it for winning ’ s sake .
cwick : When the historians talk about this Liverpool era , what do you think they will say ?
What defined it ?
And do numbers help us understand , or was there something ineffable ?
ryan : I don ’ t think there ’ s one thing — and that ’ s why the team was so good .
They nailed almost every signing and built a team of players who all peaked at the same time .
They @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
And then they broke a couple of records to nab Alisson and Virgil van Dijk to turn the early-Klopp weakness into a massive area of strength .
tchow : Chad , I think when people look back at this era of Liverpool football , it ’ ll all come back to Klopp .
And not even specifically about his tactics or game management .
But more about the influence of his cult of personality and gravitational pull on transforming this club to win first the Champions League and now EPL title .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
grace : This era will surely be remembered as Liverpool vs. Man City , and stylistically they ’ re great comparison points .
Liverpool has been framed as having more “ traditional ” values of hard work , passion , etc.
, but I think in terms of tactical cohesion , there hasn ’ t been a better side perhaps ever in England .
cwick : I think a lot about this piece from The New York Times Magazine when it comes to how to understand Liverpool ’ s success .
It @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in acquisitions , and that ’ s a big part of how Liverpool pulled this off .
Any champion gets lucky on their way to a title — Liverpool just seemed to have a well-thought-out process about how to get lucky as often as possible .
grace : Stats nerds like me will say the team significantly overperformed expected goals , and that ’ s true .
But this team has inarguably been very effective at game management and performing in particular situations .
ryan : They ’ ve also underperformed their underlying @ @ @ @ @ @ @ it ’ s about time they shot the moon .
grace : If you can ’ t handle Liverpool at their Andy Carroll/Stewart Downing worst , you don ’ t deserve them at their Salah/Sadio Mané overperforming best .
Liverpool did the perfect trick of having a heavily data-driven process but making it look like it ’ s all Klopp hugs and “ good lads ” so other teams don ’ t catch on about how to actually win .
ryan : For me , there ’ s just such a clear trend @ @ @ @ @ @ @ everyone to run a lot .
Then he turned them into a pressing machine that buried you in shots but gave up great chances on the other end .
Over the past few years , they started taking fewer shots and conceding more , but the chances they created and conceded were much higher-quality .
They finally got comfortable with allowing the other team into their defensive third from time to time .
And now , they ’ ve won everything .
cwick : We ’ ve had two seasons of transcendent Liverpool @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of handicapping their progress going forward ?
Their transfer market has dried up recently , and a team like Chelsea is younger and seemingly ready to take the leap soon .
And then of course there ’ s always Man City .
grace : To be honest , I think Liverpool deliberately decided to accept a degree of long-term pain for this short-term gain .
And it was worth it — a league title and a Champions League win tell you that .
But I do think we should expect this to not @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the favorite this year , and it will be the favorite next year .
Liverpool overshot its underlying numbers this year , so it might regress a bit there , but I think this core of players probably has one or two years left at a really high level — if it decides to run it back or if the contracting global economy forces it to !
tchow : On the other hand , though , players like Salah , Mané and Firmino are all in their prime , maybe just a tad @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
They ’ re not going anywhere anytime soon .
Although yes , point taken , they haven ’ t made splashier transfer moves like Chelsea has .
grace : Back late last year when Klopp renewed his deal , the talk was that the plan was to keep this same core together in 2020-21 then really rebuild and accept a couple of down years in the process .
ryan : I think it ’ s less about Chelsea and more about the fact that most of Liverpool ’ s players might just @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
tchow : I think winning the Champions League and the Premier League buys you a couple of down years .
Perhaps for a Liverpool fan , it will buy you a LOT of down years .
grace : Yeah .
Liverpool put every penny it had into this current window of the men ’ s first team .
Academy cuts and the terrible state of the women ’ s team will tell you that .
It ’ s been all about this window of success .
ryan : Exactly .
Just look @ @ @ @ @ @ @ decade or so for your model .
Win it all , let it wilt , then win it all again .
And no , don ’ t ask me who Mookie Betts is in this scenario .
cwick : Now I can ’ t get the idea of a Dustin Pedroia-Jordan Henderson summit out of my head .
grace : I think the perhaps underrated thing in the side is how Klopp changed his approach for England .
His Dortmund side won in transition moments , but the Premier League doesn ’ t @ @ @ @ @ @ @ your Burnleys and West Hams sitting deep and compact .
He was able to adapt to a possession game using the full backs much more — and no title if that doesn ’ t happen .
tchow : No TAA , no title .
Put that on a T-shirt .
ryan : I do wan na say , before we move on , that the way this team plays and the way it won — the out-of-control control — was just so , so much fun and rewarding to watch .
It doesn @ @ @ @ @ @ @ terms of melding style with success .
cwick : If I were 12 , I would totally have a Fathead of Mané on my wall .
ryan : I have the same haircut as Mo Salah , and I ’ m 32. tchow : Wait , are you not allowed to have Fatheads when you ’ re over 30 ?
Asking for a friend .
cwick : There are , I ’ m told , other teams in the league .
With the championship race settled , what does the rest of the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ we can either talk about Arsenal or not , whatever you ’ re able to handle right now .
tchow : Let ’ s talk about the teams that have a chance to make the Champions League first .
grace : To think about the actual game that was played tonight , Chelsea looks to be in a really strong spot for the Champions League now .
FiveThirtyEight has them at 93 percent to qualify .
ryan : In terms of actual effects on the standings , the win was WAY more important @ @ @ @ @ @ @ I ’ ll insert the usual caveat here that all of this is dependent on City ’ s Champions League ban being upheld .
grace : I was kind of surprised how effective Chelsea was at counter-pressing City in the opposing half .
It felt like Frank Lampard wanted that kind of play for a while , but I didn ’ t think they could pull it off this well .
I think Chelsea really could have something .
tchow : Timo Werner will finally be in the Premier League .
Along with @ @ @ @ @ @ @ be scary next season .
ryan : ( I ’ m sorry but Jordan Henderson is on my TV , breaking down in tears while he talks to Jamie Carragher .
It ’ s getting hard to concentrate . )
grace : SOME of us are PROFESSIONAL here , Ryan !
ryan : OK , OK , I ’ m back .
The FiveThirtyEight model has Chelsea at 4.1 xG to City ’ s 1.0 in Thursday ’ s match .
I don ’ t think I can recall City under Pep Guardiola @ @ @ @ @ @ @ : If only they had a goalkeeper .
tchow : Who needs a goalkeeper when you ’ re banging in goals .
But no , really , they do need to replace Kepa Arrizabalaga .
ryan : Kepa has strong Simon Mignolet vibes : makes every shot look way harder to save than it actually is .
grace : It feels like a lifetime ago , but this seemed similar to City ’ s loss to Man United just before the break .
Played really good stuff between the boxes but just got @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
If I were running Chelsea , I would have definitely spent that cash on a keeper before Werner and Ziyech .
tchow : Going back to something Ryan said earlier , are we sure City will still be favorites next year ?
grace : I mean , I ’ m assuming Pep fixes this either in the market or through coaching .
cwick : Tough to attract top-level talent to a team with a Champions League ban , no ?
grace : Juanma Lillo , Pep ’ s new assistant , is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ One of the big unheralded tactical influences of the past 30 years .
ryan : Even with the injuries and the weak defense , they still have the best xG differential in the league by far .
I think this was probably a … 20th-percentile City season ?
And they ’ re gon na moonwalk to second place .
grace : With a 24 percent chance of winning the Champions League according to the FiveThirtyEight model !
ryan : The best team in the world , according to the model , too !
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ Pep .
You might have blown the league , but the model still loves you .
tchow : That second place to me says more about the other teams in the league than it does City this season , and I ’ m not sure the same issues will be there next year .
We ’ ve talked about Chelsea , but Man United finally seem to be getting its act together .
ryan : I don ’ t think you can discount the fact that City won 198 points in the previous @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are still there .
Chelsea and United just don ’ t have anything close to those priors .
I do , however , think that we might be seeing an end to the Big Six .
grace : I think Man United has found a quick fix , which is just letting Bruno Fernandes do his thing , but I don ’ t see them as a cohesive enough side to really threaten much .
cwick : Ryan , what do you mean the end of the Big Six ?
Or is that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ?
grace : I mean , it ’ s not just Arsenal .
The model simulates Wolves finishing 4 points ahead of Tottenham as well .
Lean times in North London .
tchow : Or London in general .
Sorry , West Ham fans .
ryan : Per expected goal differential , City , Liverpool , Chelsea and United are the clear top four right now .
Plus , Chelsea and United are trending in the right direction and are probably mostly immune to pandemic penny-pinching .
Tottenham and Arsenal don ’ t @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is , uh , heading in the right direction .
You could convince me that Wolves , Leicester and Everton all have brighter futures than Spurs and Arsenal , too .
cwick : one last question before I let all of you go celebrate for real : Do we know how the pandemic will affect team building for the next year or two ?
Will there be less money sloshing around , and thus fewer transfers ?
Or because all of European soccer is in the same boat , nothing much will change @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the amounts are lower ?
grace : The noises from people involved in the game are that transfer activity will slow significantly for at least a little while .
I would imagine everyone is hoping and praying they can get fans into the stadiums sooner rather than later and revenues start to return to normal .
ryan : It seems like most teams will have less to spend or will at least be less willing to spend , while teams with owners with some more liquidity — like , say , a Russian @ @ @ @ @ @ @ advantage of that .
grace : Financial Fair Play is being “ relaxed , ” which is entirely sensible when lots of teams will be making big losses , but interesting to see if anyone can exploit that .
tchow : I was curious how the pandemic would affect individual transfer fees in general .
I would have assumed you probably won ’ t see as many astronomical fees and record-breaking prices for star players , but , to take it outside of the EPL for a minute , that Barcelona-Juventus swap would @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
It ’ s just money anyway , right ?
cwick : Pfff , nobody would try to exploit Financial Fair Play rules .
grace : However one feels about FFP , the rules were designed for normal times , which these obviously are not .
cwick : If only the revenues were lower before Chelsea went after Kepa… grace : There ’ s a whole sci-fi novel to be written about the alternate universe where Chelsea gets Alisson and Liverpool signs Kepa .
ryan : Funnily enough , Kepa ’ s replacement @ @ @ @ @ @ @ has saved almost nine goals more than average this year , per FBRef .
Wonder if they ’ d fancy a tradeback .
grace : Thing is if Athletic ever had to sell Simón , they ’ d surely be interested in saving Kepa from Chelsea due to their Basque-players-only policy limiting their options .
cwick : I really think Kepa is the patronus of these chats .
tchow : That makes sense .
These are lightly edited so most of what we say stays in .
Nothing gets blocked out .
Checks @ @

Liverpool Won It All This Year. Can The Reds Do It Again?
cwick (Chadwick Matlin, deputy editor): Grace! Tony! Ryan! We’re back! After months away from professional soccer and these chats, we’ve blown the klaxon and assembled again. Very excited to talk about soccer with all of you, especially on the occasion of a new champion! After decades in the wilderness and what seemed like centuries of hype, Liverpool has finally won a championship again. It came thanks to a Manchester City loss to Chelsea on Thursday, a fitting anticlimax in a season that, because of the pandemic, has been defined by interruption.
Ryan, Grace — you’re Liverpool fans. How are you celebrating??
tchow (Tony Chow, video producer): This chat already smells like expensive popped Champagne, and I’m so jealous. Just kidding. Liverpool won a very, very well-deserved title. What are you all doing here chatting? GO CELEBRATE!
ryan (Ryan O’Hanlon, FiveThirtyEight contributor and author of the No Grass in the Clouds newsletter): I’m starting it off by chatting in Slack with two of my favorite data-adjacent Liverpool fans and a fan of, well, whatever team Tony is officially rooting for right now. Then, I’m going to write a newsletter. And after that, I don’t know. I think it’ll be a similar feeling to when they won the Champions League last year. I would forget that they had won, then I’d remember, and I would get these little bits of happiness out of nowhere. That lasted for a month or so. This? I don’t think it’ll fade away that fast.
tchow: I actually haven’t heard from Grace in a while, and you know what? Good for her!
grace (Grace Robertson, FiveThirtyEight contributor and author of the Grace on Football newsletter): I had a bit of an ugly cry and now I’m ready to process it.
tchow: What does a happy ugly cry feel like? I can’t relate.
grace: We’ve never won it in my lifetime, so I don’t know the words for these emotions.
cwick: I have to admit that the COVID-19 break sapped some of the power of this for me. Sports is all about the ongoing narrative of a season, and the soccer over the last week has felt distinct from the soccer of the fall and winter. It feels a little like a team being declared champions a couple games into preseason.
ryan: I’ve never had a soccer team I care about win a seasonlong title before. (The Gold Cup does not count.) I think I’ve celebrated in tiny bursts with each successive win this year. It’s not like winning a championship match or game — no final exhalation — but the past two years have just been so, so impressive. I don’t think it can get much better than what Jürgen Klopp and Co. have done.
tchow: I have a genuine question, though, now that you all have processed this. Would you have preferred clinching the title on your own, like next week? Or is this just as good?
grace: I think in a pre-COVID world, I would’ve strongly felt it was best to win it at Anfield, but since then I’ve just wanted it done ASAP.
ryan: I feel the same way. It’s a shame it couldn’t be in front of a packed Anfield, but there will be a party at some point. Klopp will get drunk on Zoom. James Milner will drink some grape juice. It’ll be great.
cwick: I would have preferred to clinch it while playing. I want to see Mo Salah’s beatific smile. I want to watch Klopp vibrate the air with his fist pumps. And I want to see Trent Alexander-Arnold celebrate like the child he is.
tchow: Is TAA old enough to drink?
tchow: I keep thinking back to those videos of the Leicester team hanging out and watching the Chelsea-Spurs game together back in 2016 and thinking that was actually pretty nice. But with this pandemic, since that’s not even possible, this all feels more removed, so winning in any form is just as good. A title is a title.
ryan: Yeah, I do think the weirdness of it all has way less to do with the nature of how soccer awards its champs and much more to do with, you know, [gestures vaguely toward the sky].
grace: To be honest, it was more a negative emotion than anything. It was more about lifting the weight of not winning it for 30 years than winning it for winning’s sake.
cwick: When the historians talk about this Liverpool era, what do you think they will say? What defined it? And do numbers help us understand, or was there something ineffable?
ryan: I don’t think there’s one thing — and that’s why the team was so good. They nailed almost every signing and built a team of players who all peaked at the same time. They hired a coach to make everyone better. And then they broke a couple of records to nab Alisson and Virgil van Dijk to turn the early-Klopp weakness into a massive area of strength.
tchow: Chad, I think when people look back at this era of Liverpool football, it’ll all come back to Klopp. And not even specifically about his tactics or game management. But more about the influence of his cult of personality and gravitational pull on transforming this club to win first the Champions League and now EPL title. But maybe that’s an oversimplification.
grace: This era will surely be remembered as Liverpool vs. Man City, and stylistically they’re great comparison points. Liverpool has been framed as having more “traditional” values of hard work, passion, etc., but I think in terms of tactical cohesion, there hasn’t been a better side perhaps ever in England.
cwick: I think a lot about this piece from The New York Times Magazine when it comes to how to understand Liverpool’s success. It outlines how data drove their decision-making process in acquisitions, and that’s a big part of how Liverpool pulled this off. Any champion gets lucky on their way to a title — Liverpool just seemed to have a well-thought-out process about how to get lucky as often as possible.
grace: Stats nerds like me will say the team significantly overperformed expected goals, and that’s true. But this team has inarguably been very effective at game management and performing in particular situations.
ryan: They’ve also underperformed their underlying numbers in plenty of past seasons; it’s about time they shot the moon.
grace: If you can’t handle Liverpool at their Andy Carroll/Stewart Downing worst, you don’t deserve them at their Salah/Sadio Mané overperforming best.
Liverpool did the perfect trick of having a heavily data-driven process but making it look like it’s all Klopp hugs and “good lads” so other teams don’t catch on about how to actually win.
ryan: For me, there’s just such a clear trend line. Klopp came in and got everyone to run a lot. Then he turned them into a pressing machine that buried you in shots but gave up great chances on the other end. Over the past few years, they started taking fewer shots and conceding more, but the chances they created and conceded were much higher-quality. They finally got comfortable with allowing the other team into their defensive third from time to time. And now, they’ve won everything.
cwick: We’ve had two seasons of transcendent Liverpool play. Do we have a way of handicapping their progress going forward? Their transfer market has dried up recently, and a team like Chelsea is younger and seemingly ready to take the leap soon. And then of course there’s always Man City.
grace: To be honest, I think Liverpool deliberately decided to accept a degree of long-term pain for this short-term gain. And it was worth it — a league title and a Champions League win tell you that. But I do think we should expect this to not continue forever.
ryan: City was the favorite this year, and it will be the favorite next year. Liverpool overshot its underlying numbers this year, so it might regress a bit there, but I think this core of players probably has one or two years left at a really high level — if it decides to run it back or if the contracting global economy forces it to!
tchow: On the other hand, though, players like Salah, Mané and Firmino are all in their prime, maybe just a tad on the other side of their prime. They’re not going anywhere anytime soon. Although yes, point taken, they haven’t made splashier transfer moves like Chelsea has.
grace: Back late last year when Klopp renewed his deal, the talk was that the plan was to keep this same core together in 2020-21 then really rebuild and accept a couple of down years in the process.
ryan: I think it’s less about Chelsea and more about the fact that most of Liverpool’s players might just get slightly worse at the same time.
tchow: I think winning the Champions League and the Premier League buys you a couple of down years. Perhaps for a Liverpool fan, it will buy you a LOT of down years.
grace: Yeah. Liverpool put every penny it had into this current window of the men’s first team. Academy cuts and the terrible state of the women’s team will tell you that. It’s been all about this window of success.
ryan: Exactly. Just look at the Red Sox over the past decade or so for your model. Win it all, let it wilt, then win it all again.
And no, don’t ask me who Mookie Betts is in this scenario.
cwick: Now I can’t get the idea of a Dustin Pedroia-Jordan Henderson summit out of my head.
grace: I think the perhaps underrated thing in the side is how Klopp changed his approach for England. His Dortmund side won in transition moments, but the Premier League doesn’t allow for nearly as many, with your Burnleys and West Hams sitting deep and compact. He was able to adapt to a possession game using the full backs much more — and no title if that doesn’t happen.
tchow: No TAA, no title. Put that on a T-shirt.
ryan: I do wanna say, before we move on, that the way this team plays and the way it won — the out-of-control control — was just so, so much fun and rewarding to watch. It doesn’t really get any better in terms of melding style with success.
cwick: If I were 12, I would totally have a Fathead of Mané on my wall.
ryan: I have the same haircut as Mo Salah, and I’m 32.
tchow: Wait, are you not allowed to have Fatheads when you’re over 30? Asking for a friend.
cwick: There are, I’m told, other teams in the league. With the championship race settled, what does the rest of the season have in store? Tony, we can either talk about Arsenal or not, whatever you’re able to handle right now.
tchow: Let’s talk about the teams that have a chance to make the Champions League first.
grace: To think about the actual game that was played tonight, Chelsea looks to be in a really strong spot for the Champions League now. FiveThirtyEight has them at 93 percent to qualify.
ryan: In terms of actual effects on the standings, the win was WAY more important to Chelsea than Liverpool.
tchow: I’ll insert the usual caveat here that all of this is dependent on City’s Champions League ban being upheld.
grace: I was kind of surprised how effective Chelsea was at counter-pressing City in the opposing half. It felt like Frank Lampard wanted that kind of play for a while, but I didn’t think they could pull it off this well. I think Chelsea really could have something.
tchow: Timo Werner will finally be in the Premier League. Along with its Hakim Ziyech signing, Chelsea will be scary next season.
ryan: (I’m sorry but Jordan Henderson is on my TV, breaking down in tears while he talks to Jamie Carragher. It’s getting hard to concentrate.)
grace: SOME of us are PROFESSIONAL here, Ryan!
ryan: OK, OK, I’m back. The FiveThirtyEight model has Chelsea at 4.1 xG to City’s 1.0 in Thursday’s match. I don’t think I can recall City under Pep Guardiola ever getting beaten that badly.
grace: If only they had a goalkeeper.
tchow: Who needs a goalkeeper when you’re banging in goals. But no, really, they do need to replace Kepa Arrizabalaga.
ryan: Kepa has strong Simon Mignolet vibes: makes every shot look way harder to save than it actually is.
grace: It feels like a lifetime ago, but this seemed similar to City’s loss to Man United just before the break. Played really good stuff between the boxes but just got caught out so easily on the counter.
If I were running Chelsea, I would have definitely spent that cash on a keeper before Werner and Ziyech.
tchow: Going back to something Ryan said earlier, are we sure City will still be favorites next year?
grace: I mean, I’m assuming Pep fixes this either in the market or through coaching.
cwick: Tough to attract top-level talent to a team with a Champions League ban, no?
grace: Juanma Lillo, Pep’s new assistant, is a big get in that regard. One of the big unheralded tactical influences of the past 30 years.
ryan: Even with the injuries and the weak defense, they still have the best xG differential in the league by far.
I think this was probably a … 20th-percentile City season? And they’re gonna moonwalk to second place.
grace: With a 24 percent chance of winning the Champions League according to the FiveThirtyEight model!
ryan: The best team in the world, according to the model, too!
grace: Don’t worry, Pep. You might have blown the league, but the model still loves you.
tchow: That second place to me says more about the other teams in the league than it does City this season, and I’m not sure the same issues will be there next year. We’ve talked about Chelsea, but Man United finally seem to be getting its act together.
ryan: I don’t think you can discount the fact that City won 198 points in the previous two seasons. Most of those players are still there. Chelsea and United just don’t have anything close to those priors. I do, however, think that we might be seeing an end to the Big Six.
grace: I think Man United has found a quick fix, which is just letting Bruno Fernandes do his thing, but I don’t see them as a cohesive enough side to really threaten much.
cwick: Ryan, what do you mean the end of the Big Six? Or is that really just a veiled shot at Arsenal?
grace: I mean, it’s not just Arsenal. The model simulates Wolves finishing 4 points ahead of Tottenham as well. Lean times in North London.
tchow: Or London in general. Sorry, West Ham fans.
ryan: Per expected goal differential, City, Liverpool, Chelsea and United are the clear top four right now. Plus, Chelsea and United are trending in the right direction and are probably mostly immune to pandemic penny-pinching. Tottenham and Arsenal don’t have that financial backing, and neither is, uh, heading in the right direction.
You could convince me that Wolves, Leicester and Everton all have brighter futures than Spurs and Arsenal, too.
cwick: one last question before I let all of you go celebrate for real: Do we know how the pandemic will affect team building for the next year or two? Will there be less money sloshing around, and thus fewer transfers? Or because all of European soccer is in the same boat, nothing much will change in terms of acquisition, even if the amounts are lower?
grace: The noises from people involved in the game are that transfer activity will slow significantly for at least a little while. I would imagine everyone is hoping and praying they can get fans into the stadiums sooner rather than later and revenues start to return to normal.
ryan: It seems like most teams will have less to spend or will at least be less willing to spend, while teams with owners with some more liquidity — like, say, a Russian oligarch — will be able to take advantage of that.
grace: Financial Fair Play is being “relaxed,” which is entirely sensible when lots of teams will be making big losses, but interesting to see if anyone can exploit that.
tchow: I was curious how the pandemic would affect individual transfer fees in general. I would have assumed you probably won’t see as many astronomical fees and record-breaking prices for star players, but, to take it outside of the EPL for a minute, that Barcelona-Juventus swap would prove otherwise. Maybe nothing will change. It’s just money anyway, right?
cwick: Pfff, nobody would try to exploit Financial Fair Play rules.
grace: However one feels about FFP, the rules were designed for normal times, which these obviously are not.
cwick: If only the revenues were lower before Chelsea went after Kepa…
grace: There’s a whole sci-fi novel to be written about the alternate universe where Chelsea gets Alisson and Liverpool signs Kepa.
ryan: Funnily enough, Kepa’s replacement at Athletic Bilbao, Unai Simón, has saved almost nine goals more than average this year, per FBRef. Wonder if they’d fancy a tradeback.
grace: Thing is if Athletic ever had to sell Simón, they’d surely be interested in saving Kepa from Chelsea due to their Basque-players-only policy limiting their options.
cwick: I really think Kepa is the patronus of these chats.
tchow: That makes sense. These are lightly edited so most of what we say stays in. Nothing gets blocked out. Checks out.
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fivethirthyeight--2020-06-26--Politics Podcast: New Voter Registrations Have Nosedived During COVID-19

At the start of the year , new voter registrations were up compared with early 2016 numbers , but as @ @ @ @ @ the country , new registrations plummeted .
In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast @ @ @ @ @ Rogers discuss the data they analyzed showing the drop-off and explain what happened .
They @ @ @ @ @ impact the pandemic has made on Americans ’ ability to cast ballots during the primaries @ @ @ @ @ the episode by clicking the “ play ” button in the audio player above or @ @ @ @ @ , the ESPN App or your favorite podcast platform .
If you are new to @ @ @ @ @ listen .
The FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast publishes Mondays and Thursdays .
Help new listeners discover @ @ @ @ @ a rating and review on iTunes .
Have a comment , question or suggestion for @ @ @ @ @ polling ” ?
Get in touch by email , on Twitter or in the comments @

At the start of the year, new voter registrations were up compared with early 2016 numbers, but as the coronavirus pandemic spread across the country, new registrations plummeted. In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, Nathaniel Rakich and Kaleigh Rogers discuss the data they analyzed showing the drop-off and explain what happened. They also take stock of the impact the pandemic has made on Americans’ ability to cast ballots during the primaries.
New voter registrations have nosedived during COVID-19
You can listen to the episode by clicking the “play” button in the audio player above or by downloading it in iTunes, the ESPN App or your favorite podcast platform. If you are new to podcasts, learn how to listen.
The FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast publishes Mondays and Thursdays. Help new listeners discover the show by leaving us a rating and review on iTunes. Have a comment, question or suggestion for “good polling vs. bad polling”? Get in touch by email, on Twitter or in the comments.


fivethirthyeight--2020-06-29--How Arizona Became A Swing State

How Arizona Became A Swing State

This is the first in a series of articles examining the politics and demographics of 2020 ’ s expected swing states .
For years , Arizona was to Democrats what Lucy ’ s football was to Charlie Brown .
Despite candidates from Barack Obama to Hillary Clinton investing in the state , no Democratic presidential candidate has carried it since Bill Clinton in 1996 .
In fact , no Democrat won a statewide election in Arizona on any level after 2008 until 2018 , despite numerous close calls .
In the 2008 and 2012 presidential races , the state was @ @ @ @ @ @ @ than the country as a whole , respectively .
But in 2016 , President Trump won Arizona by only 4 points , making the state just 6 points more Republican-leaning than the nation .
And in 2018 , four Democratic candidates broke through and won statewide , including Sen. Kyrsten Sinema .
Now , in 2020 , Joe Biden looks like he has a chance to actually win Arizona ’ s 11 electoral votes .
As of June 29 , Biden led Trump by 4.7 points in our Arizona polling average .
And @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Senate seat here too , as Democrat Mark Kelly leads Republican Sen. Martha McSally by double digits in numerous polls .
Much of that is because of an extremely pro-Democratic national environment ; according to our polling averages , Arizona is still a bit more Republican-leaning than the nation as a whole ( 4.6 points more Republican-leaning , to be precise ) .
But if the final election results were to exactly match our current polling averages , it would still represent the third consecutive presidential election where Arizona has moved left .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ people have been predicting a blue Arizona for years : Latino voters .
Along with the state ’ s small Black and Native American populations , Latinos constitute the Democratic base in Arizona .
In 2016 , a precinct-level regression analysis estimated that Clinton won more than 80 percent of the Latino vote in Arizona .
And according to an analysis from the Center for American Progress , the share of eligible Latinos who voted also increased from 37 percent in 2012 to 42 percent in 2016 .
And Arizona ’ s Latino @ @ @ @ @ @ @ gone from 25 percent to 31 percent Latino since 2000 .
That said , the white population share in Arizona is still much higher ( currently 55 percent ) .
And many of Arizona ’ s Latinos are ineligible to vote : Among U.S. citizens who are 18 and older , white people are 65 percent of the population and Hispanic or Latino people only 23 percent .
Worst of all for Democrats , low turnout rates mean Latinos constitute an even smaller share of the actual electorate : According to the CAP @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 73 percent white and only 17 percent Latino .
So this trend alone doesn ’ t explain Arizona ’ s sudden competitiveness , even though the Latino share of the electorate is slowly but surely increasing ( it rose by 2 points from 2012 to 2016 ) .
The bigger factor at play is one that is not unique to Arizona , either : The movement of suburban voters from Republicans to Democrats since the 2016 election .
Politically , culturally and economically , Arizona is dominated by Maricopa County , which covers @ @ @ @ @ @ @ In the last several elections , Maricopa has consistently accounted for about 60 percent of the votes cast in Arizona , which means that the candidate who wins Maricopa usually wins Arizona .
And for years , it was a Republican .
Unlike in many states , the most Democratic parts of Arizona actually lay outside its biggest metropolis : Apache County ( which includes much of the Navajo Nation and is 75 percent Native American ) , Coconino County ( home of Flagstaff ) , Pima County ( home of Tucson ) @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , rural county that is 83 percent Latino ) .
As a result , Democrats consistently did better in the rest of Arizona than they did in Maricopa — where most of the votes were .
Clinton lost Maricopa County by just 3 points ( 48 percent to 45 percent ) , a drastic improvement from the last four Democratic presidential candidates .
And , notably , she became the first Democratic presidential candidate since at least 1960 to do better in Maricopa than she did in the rest of the state ( @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Sinema made even more inroads in 2018 : She won Maricopa County 51 percent to 47 percent while losing the rest of the state 49 percent to 48 percent .
In other words , Maricopa County was the reason Arizona voted Democratic in 2018 .
Because of its size , Maricopa is home to all sorts of areas , from heavily Latino and Black South Phoenix to historically Mormon Mesa to the college town of Tempe to retirement communities like Sun City .
But the county ’ s transformation has been led @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Scottsdale and Paradise Valley .
According to data from Daily Kos Elections , the state legislative districts where Clinton improved on Obama ’ s performance the most also tended to be highly college-educated and have high median incomes .
Basically , Arizona ’ s urban vs. rural divide is deepening , just like the rest of the nation ’ s .
But because Arizona is one of the most urbanized states in the country , that ’ s a good trade for Democrats .
In fact , according to an analysis based on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Arizona ’ s density had been the only factor in how it voted , it would have voted for Clinton by 6 points .
And that may happen for Biden this year .
Since March , Biden has held a small but consistent lead over Trump in polls there .
Most recently , a poll by Siena College/The New York Times Upshot — one of the best pollsters in the business — gave him a 7-point lead among registered voters ( although this will probably shrink among likely voters ) .
But for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Party ’ s newfound suburban strength , combined with the gradual growth of Arizona ’ s Latino population , is finally putting the Grand Canyon State in play .

This is the first in a series of articles examining the politics and demographics of 2020’s expected swing states.
For years, Arizona was to Democrats what Lucy’s football was to Charlie Brown. Despite candidates from Barack Obama to Hillary Clinton investing in the state, no Democratic presidential candidate has carried it since Bill Clinton in 1996. In fact, no Democrat won a statewide election in Arizona on any level after 2008 until 2018, despite numerous close calls.
But Arizona is changing.
[Related: Can We Tell Which States Will Be Swing States In November?]
In the 2008 and 2012 presidential races, the state was 16 points and 13 points more Republican-leaning than the country as a whole, respectively. But in 2016, President Trump won Arizona by only 4 points, making the state just 6 points more Republican-leaning than the nation. And in 2018, four Democratic candidates broke through and won statewide, including Sen. Kyrsten Sinema.
Now, in 2020, Joe Biden looks like he has a chance to actually win Arizona’s 11 electoral votes. As of June 29, Biden led Trump by 4.7 points in our Arizona polling average. And it looks like Democrats could flip another Senate seat here too, as Democrat Mark Kelly leads Republican Sen. Martha McSally by double digits in numerous polls.
Much of that is because of an extremely pro-Democratic national environment; according to our polling averages, Arizona is still a bit more Republican-leaning than the nation as a whole (4.6 points more Republican-leaning, to be precise). But if the final election results were to exactly match our current polling averages, it would still represent the third consecutive presidential election where Arizona has moved left.
So what’s driving this shift?
[Related: Our 2020 National Polling Averages]
Part of it is the same reason people have been predicting a blue Arizona for years: Latino voters. Along with the state’s small Black and Native American populations, Latinos constitute the Democratic base in Arizona. In 2016, a precinct-level regression analysis estimated that Clinton won more than 80 percent of the Latino vote in Arizona. And according to an analysis from the Center for American Progress, the share of eligible Latinos who voted also increased from 37 percent in 2012 to 42 percent in 2016.
And Arizona’s Latino population is swelling. The state has gone from 25 percent to 31 percent Latino since 2000. That said, the white population share in Arizona is still much higher (currently 55 percent). And many of Arizona’s Latinos are ineligible to vote: Among U.S. citizens who are 18 and older, white people are 65 percent of the population and Hispanic or Latino people only 23 percent. Worst of all for Democrats, low turnout rates mean Latinos constitute an even smaller share of the actual electorate: According to the CAP analysis, 2016 voters in Arizona were 73 percent white and only 17 percent Latino.
So this trend alone doesn’t explain Arizona’s sudden competitiveness, even though the Latino share of the electorate is slowly but surely increasing (it rose by 2 points from 2012 to 2016). The bigger factor at play is one that is not unique to Arizona, either: The movement of suburban voters from Republicans to Democrats since the 2016 election.
Politically, culturally and economically, Arizona is dominated by Maricopa County, which covers Phoenix and its sprawling metropolitan area. In the last several elections, Maricopa has consistently accounted for about 60 percent of the votes cast in Arizona, which means that the candidate who wins Maricopa usually wins Arizona.
[Related: Arizona’s Political Geography]
And for years, it was a Republican. Unlike in many states, the most Democratic parts of Arizona actually lay outside its biggest metropolis: Apache County (which includes much of the Navajo Nation and is 75 percent Native American), Coconino County (home of Flagstaff), Pima County (home of Tucson) and Santa Cruz County (a poor, rural county that is 83 percent Latino). As a result, Democrats consistently did better in the rest of Arizona than they did in Maricopa — where most of the votes were.
Until 2016.
Hillary Clinton made huge strides in Maricopa County How Maricopa County voted compared with the rest of Arizona in the last five presidential elections Election Maricopa County Rest of Arizona Gap 2000 R+10 EVEN R+10 2004 R+15 R+4 R+10 2008 R+11 R+6 R+5 2012 R+11 R+7 R+4 2016 R+3 R+5 D+2 Source: Arizona Secretary of State
Clinton lost Maricopa County by just 3 points (48 percent to 45 percent), a drastic improvement from the last four Democratic presidential candidates. And, notably, she became the first Democratic presidential candidate since at least 1960 to do better in Maricopa than she did in the rest of the state (where she lost by 5 points). Sinema made even more inroads in 2018: She won Maricopa County 51 percent to 47 percent while losing the rest of the state 49 percent to 48 percent. In other words, Maricopa County was the reason Arizona voted Democratic in 2018.
Because of its size, Maricopa is home to all sorts of areas, from heavily Latino and Black South Phoenix to historically Mormon Mesa to the college town of Tempe to retirement communities like Sun City. But the county’s transformation has been led by upper-class suburban enclaves like Ahwatukee, Scottsdale and Paradise Valley. According to data from Daily Kos Elections, the state legislative districts where Clinton improved on Obama’s performance the most also tended to be highly college-educated and have high median incomes.
[Related: How Urban Or Rural Is Your State? And What Does That Mean For The 2020 Election?]
Basically, Arizona’s urban vs. rural divide is deepening, just like the rest of the nation’s. But because Arizona is one of the most urbanized states in the country, that’s a good trade for Democrats. In fact, according to an analysis based on FiveThirtyEight’s urbanization index, if Arizona’s density had been the only factor in how it voted, it would have voted for Clinton by 6 points.
And that may happen for Biden this year. Since March, Biden has held a small but consistent lead over Trump in polls there. Most recently, a poll by Siena College/The New York Times Upshot — one of the best pollsters in the business — gave him a 7-point lead among registered voters (although this will probably shrink among likely voters). But for now, it looks like the Democratic Party’s newfound suburban strength, combined with the gradual growth of Arizona’s Latino population, is finally putting the Grand Canyon State in play.
‘Trump’s getting into underdog territory’: Nate Silver


fivethirthyeight--2020-07-01--What Went Down In Colorado, Oklahoma And Utah

Colorado , Oklahoma and Utah held primaries on Tuesday , and with the help of mail-in balloting and absentee ballots , these states largely held seamless elections .
The contests in these states helped decide the nominees in a pivotal Senate race and a handful of competitive House districts , shaping the November matchups that will play a role in deciding which party controls Congress .
One other state — Kentucky — also reported results from the primary it held last week ; for New York , we ’ re going to have to wait a little while longer on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , former Gov .
John Hickenlooper defeated former state House Speaker Andrew Romanoff by nearly 20 points , 59.6 percent to 40.4 percent .
Hickenlooper had been a heavy favorite from when he first entered the race last summer , but a number of missteps in recent weeks , including saying “ every life matters ” in response to a question on what Black Lives Matter means to him , gave Romanoff a possible opening .
Romanoff tried to run to Hickenlooper ’ s left by embracing a progressive agenda — including support @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Hickenlooper opposes — but his campaign just didn ’ t catch on .
So now Hickenlooper , who once said , “ I ’ m not cut out to be a senator , ” starts the general election campaign as a slight favorite against Republican Sen. Cory Gardner in a state that will likely back Joe Biden in November .
The GOP primary in Colorado ’ s 3rd Congressional District was more of a surprise , however , with President Trump ’ s backed candidate Rep. Scott Tipton losing to restauranteur Lauren Boebert @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to 45.4 percent .
Tipton is now the fourth House incumbent to lose renomination this year , and his defeat could make this Republican-leaning seat — Trump won it by 12 points in 2016 , according to Daily Kos Elections — highly competitive in November .
Boebert ran to the right of Tipton , drawing on her background as a gun-rights activist ( she runs a restaurant where servers are allowed to openly carry firearms ) .
But she ’ s raised very little money so far , and has attracted controversy for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ movement labeled a domestic terrorist threat by the FBI last year that promotes false conspiracy theories .
So Boebert may struggle to turn her upset primary victory into real traction in the general election .
Democrats have nominated former state Rep. Diane Mitsch Bush , hoping she can win after losing to Tipton by 8 points in 2018 .
Next door in Utah , the marquee race was the GOP primary for governor , and it lived up to the hype — as of 8 a.m. eastern , there is still no call @ @ @ @ @ @ @ leads former Gov .
Jon Huntsman by around 3 points , 37.0 percent to 34.3 percent , and former state House Speaker Greg Hughes in third with 20.7 percent .
We may not know the final result for a few days either .
Due to the coronavirus pandemic , voters could postmark their ballots on Election Day — normally they have to do so the day before — and counties are quarantining mail ballots for 24 hours before counting them , so last-minute votes won ’ t be immediately counted as they arrive @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Cox or Huntsman — the victor will almost certainly be the next governor in this strongly Republican state .
Down the ballot in Utah , the crowded 1st Congressional District Republican primary also remains uncalled as businessman Blake Moore holds a razor-thin edge over Davis County Commissioner Bob Stevenson , 30.2 percent to 29.6 percent .
And similar to the gubernatorial contest , the winner of this primary will also likely win the deep red seat in November .
There was less drama in Utah ’ s 4th Congressional District GOP race , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Owens defeated state Rep. Kim Coleman and two other candidates , winning 44 percent of the vote based on partial results .
Owens will now face Democratic Rep. Ben McAdams in a competitive but traditionally Republican-leaning seat in November , where election handicappers give McAdams a small early advantage .
In Oklahoma , the main event of the evening was a ballot measure on whether to expand Medicaid .
The final margin was slim , 50.5 percent to 49.5 percent voted in favor , but with its passage , at least 200,000 more @ @ @ @ @ @ @ benefits .
Just 13 states have now not expanded Medicaid under the Affordable Care Act .
As for Oklahoma ’ s most notable race of the evening — the Republican primary in the 5th Congressional District — no candidate won a majority , so there will now be an Aug. 25 runoff between businesswoman Terry Neese and state Sen. Stephanie Bice .
Democratic Rep. Kendra Horn is an endangered Democrat , too , having pulled off an upset victory in 2018 in a seat Trump carried by 13 points in 2016 .
So @ @ @ @ @ @ @ themselves in a competitive race with Horn .
Either Neese or Bice would help the GOP increase its slim share of women representatives , too .
At present , only 13 of the 197 Republicans in the House are women .
[ Related : Elections In Kentucky And New York Are High-Stakes For The Progressive Movement ] Kentucky also reported results yesterday after delaying the full release of returns from its June 23 primary because of a huge number of absentee ballots , and in its marquee race , the Democratic primary for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ showed a very close race .
Former fighter pilot and 2018 congressional candidate Amy McGrath only narrowly edged out progressive state Rep. Charles Booker by about 3 points , 45.4 percent to 42.6 percent .
McGrath was able to hold on despite Booker ’ s surge in the final days of the campaign , but considering the $ 41 million she raised ahead of the primary , her showing was a bit underwhelming .
She now heads to the general election as a significant underdog against Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell .
As @ @ @ @ @ @ @ with a delayed June 23 primary count , we ’ ll have to wait a bit longer for results .
Election officials said they won ’ t begin counting absentee ballots until today , and some counting will be delayed until after the July 4 holiday weekend .
This leaves a number of important Democratic House primaries in doubt for a little while longer .
But overall , the June 30 primaries seem to have avoided any major hiccups .
Colorado and Utah both have traditions of vote-by-mail elections , so they were @ @ @ @ @ @ @ midst of the coronavirus pandemic .
They also took additional precautions like ballot quarantining in Utah .
Oklahoma still relied heavily on in-person voting , but they took a number of precautionary measures , such as social distancing and personal protective equipment at polling places .
The state board of elections also sent out a record-number of absentee ballots .
It ’ s unclear how this would scale for November or work elsewhere , but at least there were some signs on Tuesday that elections in the midst of a public health crisis @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Podcast : Biden Is Currently Competitive In Georgia And Texas

Colorado, Oklahoma and Utah held primaries on Tuesday, and with the help of mail-in balloting and absentee ballots, these states largely held seamless elections. The contests in these states helped decide the nominees in a pivotal Senate race and a handful of competitive House districts, shaping the November matchups that will play a role in deciding which party controls Congress. One other state — Kentucky — also reported results from the primary it held last week; for New York, we’re going to have to wait a little while longer on full results.
First up in Colorado, former Gov. John Hickenlooper defeated former state House Speaker Andrew Romanoff by nearly 20 points, 59.6 percent to 40.4 percent. Hickenlooper had been a heavy favorite from when he first entered the race last summer, but a number of missteps in recent weeks, including saying “every life matters” in response to a question on what Black Lives Matter means to him, gave Romanoff a possible opening. Romanoff tried to run to Hickenlooper’s left by embracing a progressive agenda — including support for the Green New Deal, which Hickenlooper opposes — but his campaign just didn’t catch on. So now Hickenlooper, who once said, “I’m not cut out to be a senator,” starts the general election campaign as a slight favorite against Republican Sen. Cory Gardner in a state that will likely back Joe Biden in November.
[Related: Our 2020 National Polling Averages]
The GOP primary in Colorado’s 3rd Congressional District was more of a surprise, however, with President Trump’s backed candidate Rep. Scott Tipton losing to restauranteur Lauren Boebert by about 9 points, 54.6 percent to 45.4 percent. Tipton is now the fourth House incumbent to lose renomination this year, and his defeat could make this Republican-leaning seat — Trump won it by 12 points in 2016, according to Daily Kos Elections — highly competitive in November. Boebert ran to the right of Tipton, drawing on her background as a gun-rights activist (she runs a restaurant where servers are allowed to openly carry firearms). But she’s raised very little money so far, and has attracted controversy for her views on QAnon, a far-right movement labeled a domestic terrorist threat by the FBI last year that promotes false conspiracy theories. So Boebert may struggle to turn her upset primary victory into real traction in the general election. Democrats have nominated former state Rep. Diane Mitsch Bush, hoping she can win after losing to Tipton by 8 points in 2018.
Next door in Utah, the marquee race was the GOP primary for governor, and it lived up to the hype — as of 8 a.m. eastern, there is still no call. Lt. Gov. Spencer Cox narrowly leads former Gov. Jon Huntsman by around 3 points, 37.0 percent to 34.3 percent, and former state House Speaker Greg Hughes in third with 20.7 percent. We may not know the final result for a few days either. Due to the coronavirus pandemic, voters could postmark their ballots on Election Day — normally they have to do so the day before — and counties are quarantining mail ballots for 24 hours before counting them, so last-minute votes won’t be immediately counted as they arrive. But regardless of who wins — Cox or Huntsman — the victor will almost certainly be the next governor in this strongly Republican state.
[Related: How Popular Is President Donald Trump?]
Down the ballot in Utah, the crowded 1st Congressional District Republican primary also remains uncalled as businessman Blake Moore holds a razor-thin edge over Davis County Commissioner Bob Stevenson, 30.2 percent to 29.6 percent. And similar to the gubernatorial contest, the winner of this primary will also likely win the deep red seat in November. There was less drama in Utah’s 4th Congressional District GOP race, however, where former NFL player Burgess Owens defeated state Rep. Kim Coleman and two other candidates, winning 44 percent of the vote based on partial results. Owens will now face Democratic Rep. Ben McAdams in a competitive but traditionally Republican-leaning seat in November, where election handicappers give McAdams a small early advantage.
In Oklahoma, the main event of the evening was a ballot measure on whether to expand Medicaid. The final margin was slim, 50.5 percent to 49.5 percent voted in favor, but with its passage, at least 200,000 more Oklahomans will now be eligible for Medicaid benefits. Just 13 states have now not expanded Medicaid under the Affordable Care Act. As for Oklahoma’s most notable race of the evening — the Republican primary in the 5th Congressional District — no candidate won a majority, so there will now be an Aug. 25 runoff between businesswoman Terry Neese and state Sen. Stephanie Bice. Democratic Rep. Kendra Horn is an endangered Democrat, too, having pulled off an upset victory in 2018 in a seat Trump carried by 13 points in 2016. So either Neese or Bice will likely find themselves in a competitive race with Horn. Either Neese or Bice would help the GOP increase its slim share of women representatives, too. At present, only 13 of the 197 Republicans in the House are women.
[Related: Elections In Kentucky And New York Are High-Stakes For The Progressive Movement]
Kentucky also reported results yesterday after delaying the full release of returns from its June 23 primary because of a huge number of absentee ballots, and in its marquee race, the Democratic primary for the U.S. Senate, the final results showed a very close race. Former fighter pilot and 2018 congressional candidate Amy McGrath only narrowly edged out progressive state Rep. Charles Booker by about 3 points, 45.4 percent to 42.6 percent. McGrath was able to hold on despite Booker’s surge in the final days of the campaign, but considering the $41 million she raised ahead of the primary, her showing was a bit underwhelming. She now heads to the general election as a significant underdog against Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell.
As for New York, the other state with a delayed June 23 primary count, we’ll have to wait a bit longer for results. Election officials said they won’t begin counting absentee ballots until today, and some counting will be delayed until after the July 4 holiday weekend. This leaves a number of important Democratic House primaries in doubt for a little while longer.
But overall, the June 30 primaries seem to have avoided any major hiccups. Colorado and Utah both have traditions of vote-by-mail elections, so they were well-equipped to hold a primary in the midst of the coronavirus pandemic. They also took additional precautions like ballot quarantining in Utah. Oklahoma still relied heavily on in-person voting, but they took a number of precautionary measures, such as social distancing and personal protective equipment at polling places. The state board of elections also sent out a record-number of absentee ballots. It’s unclear how this would scale for November or work elsewhere, but at least there were some signs on Tuesday that elections in the midst of a public health crisis can be held successfully.
FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast: Biden Is Currently Competitive In Georgia And Texas


fivethirthyeight--2020-07-01--Charles Booker, Jamaal Bowman And The 7 Competing Camps In Black Politics

New York ’ s Jamaal Bowman and Kentucky ’ s Charles Booker , two Black men running on very liberal policy platforms , likely defeated and nearly defeated ( respectively ) white Democrats in primaries last week , giving a boost to the party ’ s insurgent wing .
Neither Bowman nor Booker got much help from the party elite — unsurprising , as they were running against establishment-backed figures — and also did not get much help from powerful Black officials in the Democratic Party .
Sen. Bernie Sanders , Sen. Elizabeth Warren and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez endorsed Booker @ @ @ @ @ @ @ but Sens .
Cory Booker and Kamala Harris didn ’ t .
Members of the Congressional Black Caucus interjected themselves into Bowman ’ s race — to endorse the longtime incumbent , Rep. Eliot Engel .
Speaking of Harris , she seems like a fairly logical choice to be presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden ’ s running mate .
But it probably doesn ’ t help her that some more liberal Black Democrats , such as Wisconsin Lt. Gov .
Mandela Barnes , are publicly suggesting that they might prefer Warren for the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ It ’ s not surprising that prominent Black political figures aren ’ t aligned on every issue — and there ’ s nothing new about that at all .
But these particular divides are illustrative of major shifts happening within Black politics , by which I largely mean the world of activists , elected officials and other power brokers in the United States who are Black .
We are in an era where one man ( Barack Obama ) is no longer the center of Black politics .
So among the major power @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Black Lives Matter that is as skeptical of Black elected officials as non-Black ones ; a rising left wing of the Democratic Party that includes many Black voices ; and a Black establishment that is arguably more powerful than ever before on Capitol Hill .
There are now , in my view , at least seven fairly distinct camps among Black political figures — concentrated in the Democratic Party but also stretching into the GOP .
These groupings — which come from my own reporting and talking to experts , rather than any @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
But the idea is to explain some common patterns and themes we are seeing , not necessarily to perfectly describe the politics of any particular person or faction in the party .
I should also emphasize that these camps do not correspond exactly to rank-and-file Black voters , although I will talk about some places where there is overlap between activists and voters .
I have tried to order the camps by size , from largest to smallest .
They are : • Geography : Members often represent areas with large Black @ @ @ @ @ @ @ • Ideology : Fairly liberal , but somewhat wary of ideas like cutting police or military funding , the Green New Deal and Medicare for All ; more aligned with business interests than some more progressive Democrats would prefer .
Many of the Black figures who entered electoral politics amid the Civil Rights activism of the 1960s and 70s have retired or passed away .
They have largely been replaced by a younger cohort — at least relative to other elected officials — that is not on the streets protesting but instead trying @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Rights generation made once they got into office .
This group , trying to maintain and grow its power , tends to align with the Democratic Party ’ s existing powerbrokers .
So Bottoms and Richmond endorsed Biden very early in the 2020 Democratic presidential primary , even as other Black political figures waited to see if Booker or Harris ’ s campaigns would take off .
Bottoms ’ s early endorsement is reportedly one reason that Biden is considering the Atlanta mayor to be his running mate .
Bowser endorsed Michael Bloomberg @ @ @ @ @ @ @ figure who spent much of his campaign under attack for supporting aggressive policing policies during his time as mayor of New York that disproportionately affected Black people .
This younger establishment group is wary of the more progressive , anti-establishment parts of the Democratic Party .
From the younger Black establishment ’ s perspective , Black politicians had to fight hard to gain a real foothold in the Democratic Party as it is structured now , and that standing should not be taken for granted .
So members of this bloc tend to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ even white ones , as attacks on them .
And the young establishment is fighting back .
Jeffries cast his endorsement of Engel over Bowman in terms of loyalty to Engel , a longtime New York political figure with a liberal voting record .
But Jeffries ’ s backing of Engel was also another round in the moderate vs. left-wing fights that are happening in New York and Washington politics that feature Jeffries on one side and Ocasio-Cortez on the other .
These fights cut across racial lines and include Black and non-Black @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Democratic Party remains largely dominated by its more moderate wing , Black officials in the younger establishment are likely to see their clout grow .
Keep an eye on Jeffries in particular — he is one of the leading candidates to become the top Democrat in the House whenever Pelosi steps down .
The Older ( 60 And Above ) Establishment • Geography : Often represent heavily Black areas and/or areas in the South .
• Ideology : Similar to the younger establishment , perhaps even more wary of very liberal ideas .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s endorsement of Biden was the defining event of the Democratic primary , leading to Biden winning South Carolina ’ s Black voters , and therefore the state , by a huge margin .
That victory seemed to catapult Biden to the nomination .
An alternative explanation might be that Black voters in South Carolina and throughout the South were already fairly hesitant about Sanders becoming the Democratic nominee ( see the 2016 primary ) , and Clyburn was just echoing a sentiment he was hearing from his constituents that was then @ @ @ @ @ @ @ alternative explanations — and perhaps there is truth in both — point to the importance and power of Black officials in the older establishment : This group both represents the existing views of older Black voters but probably also helps mold those views .
And older Black voters vote at higher rates than younger ones , making older Black voters a crucial constituency , particularly in Democratic primary contests .
This group ’ s power is likely to wane when some of its most well-known members , particularly Clyburn and Lewis — who @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in Democratic politics — retire from office .
But whether the more moderate approach of this group is still influential in Democratic circles will depend on whether these officials are replaced by younger establishment figures or more anti-establishment black Democrats .
Speaking of which … • Major Figures : Rev .
William Barber , Barnes , Charles Booker , Bowman , Minnesota Attorney General Keith Ellison , Rep. Ilhan Omar , Rep. Ayanna Pressley , people associated with Movement for Black Lives and Black Lives Matter groups .
• Alliances : Often were @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Sanders and/or Warren .
• Geography : Often represent areas that don ’ t have large Black populations and are outside of the South .
• Ideology : More supportive of liberal ideas such as the Green New Deal , Medicare for All and reducing police funding .
In the Obama years , it wasn ’ t obvious that there was a distinct black progressive bloc — there weren ’ t a ton of prominent black political figures who were well to the left of , say , Clyburn .
But the leftward @ @ @ @ @ @ @ created an opening for more progressive Black politicians .
The rise of this bloc is also arguably aided by the prominence of Black authors and writers like Ta-Nehisi Coates , formerly of The Atlantic , Boston University professor Ibram X. Kendi and The New York Times ’ s Nikole Hannah-Jones , who are pushing sweeping ideas to combat racial inequality , such as reparations , that more establishment Black politicians often don ’ t talk about .
There still aren ’ t that many of these politicians in office , particularly at the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ aside , several of the more progressive Black candidates lost to more establishment figures in Democratic primaries this year .
But this bloc is worth watching , in part because its core constituency is arguably younger ( under 45 ) and more progressive white voters as much as African Americans .
Any white incumbent in a heavily Democratic area now has to be worried that a Black liberal candidate emerges , gets some support among Black voters who might like to have a Black person represent them and then also wins a lot @ @ @ @ @ @ @ who are more “ woke ” on racial issues and want to vote for a Black candidate .
This bloc also complicates things for elected officials like Cory Booker and Harris , who have positioned themselves as more ideologically moderate .
In a world in which someone like Pressley ( who endorsed Warren ) has a national profile , more progressive voters of all races may have felt more comfortable backing Sanders or Warren over Booker or Harris in the 2020 Democratic primary , as these progressive voters know they will probably get @ @ @ @ @ @ @ who is also Black ( like Pressley ) in a future presidential race .
• Alliances : Not clearly aligned with other major figures in the Democratic Party .
• Geography : Not particularly linked to a region ; interested in statewide and national office and therefore trying to build a large constituency of both Black and non-Black Democrats .
• Ideology : Generally speaking , left of the establishment but right of the anti-establishment .
In some sense , you can ’ t get more established ( and hence establishment ) than @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
But Obama ran against the older Black establishment in 2008 .
( Lewis , for example , endorsed Hillary Clinton before switching to Obama . )
And since leaving office , Obama has signaled that he is open to more liberal ideas than those he implemented while president , although he has also expressed wariness of the party going too far left .
In their presidential campaigns , Booker and Harris positioned themselves ideologically between Biden and Sanders .
The people in this group are quite … well , political — intentionally @ @ @ @ @ @ @ especially establishment or anti-establishment , or to be seen as allied only with the old or the young .
This positioning obviously worked for Obama .
The result , though , is that these officials are kind of independent actors , not associated with an obvious bloc in the party .
And that carries risk .
For example , some Black progressives think Harris is too establishment and moderate .
But it ’ s not clear that she is perfectly aligned with the establishment either — after all , she ran against Biden @ @ @ @ @ @ @ attacked him fairly sharply .
So more moderate powerbrokers in the party , such as Biden , Clyburn and Pelosi , might prefer a Black person who is more aligned with them as Biden ’ s running mate , such as Bottoms or Demings .
Basically everyone in this group is between the ages of 45 and 60 , which is likely explained by the fact that until recently , a Black person cast as very liberal had little chance to advance in Democratic politics outside of a heavily Black area .
Many @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for statewide office and/or the presidency .
• Alliances : Not clearly aligned with other major figures in the Democratic Party .
• Geography : Not particularly linked to a region or type of constituency .
This group is fairly small and doesn ’ t wield a ton of power in Democratic politics .
In some ways , they are a cautionary tale for the younger anti-establishment figures .
If the anti-establishment doesn ’ t really gain power in the Democratic Party , a Speaker Jeffries might ignore them in much the same @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Obama have ignored people like Green , Jackson and West in the past .
Lee has policy views well to the left of Pelosi but they have a good relationship .
• Major Figures : Rep. Will Hurd , former Rep. Mia Love , former Secretary of State Colin Powell , Sen. Tim Scott , former Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Steele .
• Alliances : Not particularly allied with anyone , but generally not allied with President Trump .
• Geography : Not particularly linked to a region , but their constituencies @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are overwhelmingly white .
• Ideology : Conservative on many policy issues , but generally opposed to the identity politics of Trump .
There are few Black Republicans in major political roles — few enough that there is no real geographic or ideological unifier among them .
But the president has made so many controversial and at times racist comments that Black Republicans and ex-Republicans are basically forced to comment on them .
These figures tend to criticize Trump ’ s racial and racist rhetoric .
That fits with their general political approach @ @ @ @ @ @ @ these people had long suggested that the GOP needed to change its policies and outreach to appeal more to Black voters .
• Alliances : Allied with Trump and his administration .
• Geography : Same as the Trump-skeptical Republicans .
• Ideology : Conservative on many policy issues and not critical of Trump on identity and race issues .
It ’ s not necessarily that people in this bloc agree with everything that Trump says on racial issues , but more that they aren ’ t usually going to criticize him in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ — but if Trump wins a second term , I would expect this bloc to grow , with more Black Republicans putting their political ambitions ahead of whatever qualms they may have about the president ’ s rhetoric .
Again , none of this is an exact science .
But these divides among Black political figures are important and often a little hard to see clearly , since nearly all of these politicians are Democrats and most of them broadly agree on major issues .
If , for example , Harris is named @ @ @ @ @ @ @ will be some Black Democrats who are excited about that and others who are more lukewarm .
This is not Barack Obama ’ s party anymore — but at least for now , it ’ s not Kamala Harris ’ s party or Jamaal Bowman ’ s party or Hakeem Jeffries ’ s party or James Clyburn ’ s party either .
FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast : Biden Is Currently Competitive In Georgia And Texas

Perry Bacon Jr. (perry.bacon@fivethirtyeight.com)

New York’s Jamaal Bowman and Kentucky’s Charles Booker, two Black men running on very liberal policy platforms, likely defeated and nearly defeated (respectively) white Democrats in primaries last week, giving a boost to the party’s insurgent wing. Neither Bowman nor Booker got much help from the party elite — unsurprising, as they were running against establishment-backed figures — and also did not get much help from powerful Black officials in the Democratic Party. Sen. Bernie Sanders, Sen. Elizabeth Warren and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez endorsed Booker in his race against Amy McGrath, but Sens. Cory Booker and Kamala Harris didn’t. Members of the Congressional Black Caucus interjected themselves into Bowman’s race — to endorse the longtime incumbent, Rep. Eliot Engel.
[Related: Our 2020 National Polling Averages]
Speaking of Harris, she seems like a fairly logical choice to be presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden’s running mate. But it probably doesn’t help her that some more liberal Black Democrats, such as Wisconsin Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes, are publicly suggesting that they might prefer Warren for the VP slot over the California senator.
It’s not surprising that prominent Black political figures aren’t aligned on every issue — and there’s nothing new about that at all. But these particular divides are illustrative of major shifts happening within Black politics, by which I largely mean the world of activists, elected officials and other power brokers in the United States who are Black. We are in an era where one man (Barack Obama) is no longer the center of Black politics. So among the major power centers are the activist movement linked to Black Lives Matter that is as skeptical of Black elected officials as non-Black ones; a rising left wing of the Democratic Party that includes many Black voices; and a Black establishment that is arguably more powerful than ever before on Capitol Hill.
[Related: The Diversity Of Black Political Views]
There are now, in my view, at least seven fairly distinct camps among Black political figures — concentrated in the Democratic Party but also stretching into the GOP. These groupings — which come from my own reporting and talking to experts, rather than any specific data set — are mostly informal. But the idea is to explain some common patterns and themes we are seeing, not necessarily to perfectly describe the politics of any particular person or faction in the party. I should also emphasize that these camps do not correspond exactly to rank-and-file Black voters, although I will talk about some places where there is overlap between activists and voters.
I have tried to order the camps by size, from largest to smallest. They are:
The Younger (Under Age 60) Establishment
Many of the Black figures who entered electoral politics amid the Civil Rights activism of the 1960s and 70s have retired or passed away. They have largely been replaced by a younger cohort — at least relative to other elected officials — that is not on the streets protesting but instead trying to build upon the inroads the Civil Rights generation made once they got into office.
This group, trying to maintain and grow its power, tends to align with the Democratic Party’s existing powerbrokers. So Bottoms and Richmond endorsed Biden very early in the 2020 Democratic presidential primary, even as other Black political figures waited to see if Booker or Harris’s campaigns would take off. Bottoms’s early endorsement is reportedly one reason that Biden is considering the Atlanta mayor to be his running mate. Bowser endorsed Michael Bloomberg for president, aligning herself with a figure who spent much of his campaign under attack for supporting aggressive policing policies during his time as mayor of New York that disproportionately affected Black people.
This younger establishment group is wary of the more progressive, anti-establishment parts of the Democratic Party. From the younger Black establishment’s perspective, Black politicians had to fight hard to gain a real foothold in the Democratic Party as it is structured now, and that standing should not be taken for granted. So members of this bloc tend to see attacks on party establishment figures, even white ones, as attacks on them.
And the young establishment is fighting back. Jeffries cast his endorsement of Engel over Bowman in terms of loyalty to Engel, a longtime New York political figure with a liberal voting record. But Jeffries’s backing of Engel was also another round in the moderate vs. left-wing fights that are happening in New York and Washington politics that feature Jeffries on one side and Ocasio-Cortez on the other. These fights cut across racial lines and include Black and non-Black officials on both sides.
If the Democratic Party remains largely dominated by its more moderate wing, Black officials in the younger establishment are likely to see their clout grow. Keep an eye on Jeffries in particular — he is one of the leading candidates to become the top Democrat in the House whenever Pelosi steps down.
The Older (60 And Above) Establishment
Major Figures : Rep. James Clyburn, Rep. Val Demings, Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee, Rep. John Lewis, Rep. Greg Meeks, National Urban League President Marc Morial.
: Rep. James Clyburn, Rep. Val Demings, Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee, Rep. John Lewis, Rep. Greg Meeks, National Urban League President Marc Morial. Alliances : Close to Biden and Pelosi.
: Close to Biden and Pelosi. Geography : Often represent heavily Black areas and/or areas in the South.
: Often represent heavily Black areas and/or areas in the South. Ideology: Similar to the younger establishment, perhaps even more wary of very liberal ideas.
Many political experts have argued that Clyburn’s endorsement of Biden was the defining event of the Democratic primary, leading to Biden winning South Carolina’s Black voters, and therefore the state, by a huge margin. That victory seemed to catapult Biden to the nomination. An alternative explanation might be that Black voters in South Carolina and throughout the South were already fairly hesitant about Sanders becoming the Democratic nominee (see the 2016 primary), and Clyburn was just echoing a sentiment he was hearing from his constituents that was then reflected in the voting results.
Those alternative explanations — and perhaps there is truth in both — point to the importance and power of Black officials in the older establishment: This group both represents the existing views of older Black voters but probably also helps mold those views. And older Black voters vote at higher rates than younger ones, making older Black voters a crucial constituency, particularly in Democratic primary contests.
This group’s power is likely to wane when some of its most well-known members, particularly Clyburn and Lewis — who are two of the most influential figures in Democratic politics — retire from office. But whether the more moderate approach of this group is still influential in Democratic circles will depend on whether these officials are replaced by younger establishment figures or more anti-establishment black Democrats. Speaking of which …
The Younger Anti-Establishment
In the Obama years, it wasn’t obvious that there was a distinct black progressive bloc — there weren’t a ton of prominent black political figures who were well to the left of, say, Clyburn.
But the leftward shift in the Democratic Party overall has created an opening for more progressive Black politicians. The rise of this bloc is also arguably aided by the prominence of Black authors and writers like Ta-Nehisi Coates, formerly of The Atlantic, Boston University professor Ibram X. Kendi and The New York Times’s Nikole Hannah-Jones, who are pushing sweeping ideas to combat racial inequality, such as reparations, that more establishment Black politicians often don’t talk about.
There still aren’t that many of these politicians in office, particularly at the federal level. Bowman’s win aside, several of the more progressive Black candidates lost to more establishment figures in Democratic primaries this year.
But this bloc is worth watching, in part because its core constituency is arguably younger (under 45) and more progressive white voters as much as African Americans. Any white incumbent in a heavily Democratic area now has to be worried that a Black liberal candidate emerges, gets some support among Black voters who might like to have a Black person represent them and then also wins a lot of younger and more progressive white voters who are more “woke” on racial issues and want to vote for a Black candidate.
This bloc also complicates things for elected officials like Cory Booker and Harris, who have positioned themselves as more ideologically moderate. In a world in which someone like Pressley (who endorsed Warren) has a national profile, more progressive voters of all races may have felt more comfortable backing Sanders or Warren over Booker or Harris in the 2020 Democratic primary, as these progressive voters know they will probably get to vote for a very progressive person who is also Black (like Pressley) in a future presidential race.
The Obamaites
Major Figures : Former Georgia House Minority Leader Stacey Abrams, Cory Booker, Harris, Rep. Jahana Hayes, Obama.
: Former Georgia House Minority Leader Stacey Abrams, Cory Booker, Harris, Rep. Jahana Hayes, Obama. Alliances : Not clearly aligned with other major figures in the Democratic Party.
: Not clearly aligned with other major figures in the Democratic Party. Geography : Not particularly linked to a region; interested in statewide and national office and therefore trying to build a large constituency of both Black and non-Black Democrats.
: Not particularly linked to a region; interested in statewide and national office and therefore trying to build a large constituency of both Black and non-Black Democrats. Ideology: Generally speaking, left of the establishment but right of the anti-establishment.
In some sense, you can’t get more established (and hence establishment) than a former president and two sitting senators. But Obama ran against the older Black establishment in 2008. (Lewis, for example, endorsed Hillary Clinton before switching to Obama.) And since leaving office, Obama has signaled that he is open to more liberal ideas than those he implemented while president, although he has also expressed wariness of the party going too far left. In their presidential campaigns, Booker and Harris positioned themselves ideologically between Biden and Sanders.
The people in this group are quite … well, political — intentionally trying to avoid getting pinned down as especially establishment or anti-establishment, or to be seen as allied only with the old or the young. This positioning obviously worked for Obama. The result, though, is that these officials are kind of independent actors, not associated with an obvious bloc in the party. And that carries risk. For example, some Black progressives think Harris is too establishment and moderate. But it’s not clear that she is perfectly aligned with the establishment either — after all, she ran against Biden during the presidential campaign and at times attacked him fairly sharply.
So more moderate powerbrokers in the party, such as Biden, Clyburn and Pelosi, might prefer a Black person who is more aligned with them as Biden’s running mate, such as Bottoms or Demings.
Basically everyone in this group is between the ages of 45 and 60, which is likely explained by the fact that until recently, a Black person cast as very liberal had little chance to advance in Democratic politics outside of a heavily Black area. Many of these figures aspire or have aspired for statewide office and/or the presidency.
The Older Anti-Establishment
Major Figures : Rep. Al Green, the Rev. Jesse Jackson, Rep. Barbara Lee, activist, author and professor Cornel West.
: Rep. Al Green, the Rev. Jesse Jackson, Rep. Barbara Lee, activist, author and professor Cornel West. Alliances : Not clearly aligned with other major figures in the Democratic Party.
: Not clearly aligned with other major figures in the Democratic Party. Geography : Not particularly linked to a region or type of constituency.
: Not particularly linked to a region or type of constituency. Ideology: Fairly similar to the younger anti-establishment.
This group is fairly small and doesn’t wield a ton of power in Democratic politics. In some ways, they are a cautionary tale for the younger anti-establishment figures. If the anti-establishment doesn’t really gain power in the Democratic Party, a Speaker Jeffries might ignore them in much the same way that Pelosi and Presidents Clinton and Obama have ignored people like Green, Jackson and West in the past.
Trump-Skeptical Conservatives/Republicans
Major Figures: Rep. Will Hurd, former Rep. Mia Love, former Secretary of State Colin Powell, Sen. Tim Scott, former Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Steele.
Rep. Will Hurd, former Rep. Mia Love, former Secretary of State Colin Powell, Sen. Tim Scott, former Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Steele. Alliances : Not particularly allied with anyone, but generally not allied with President Trump.
: Not particularly allied with anyone, but generally allied with President Trump. Geography: Not particularly linked to a region, but their constituencies are heavily white, since GOP voters are overwhelmingly white.
Not particularly linked to a region, but their constituencies are heavily white, since GOP voters are overwhelmingly white. Ideology: Conservative on many policy issues, but generally opposed to the identity politics of Trump.
There are few Black Republicans in major political roles — few enough that there is no real geographic or ideological unifier among them. But the president has made so many controversial and at times racist comments that Black Republicans and ex-Republicans are basically forced to comment on them. These figures tend to criticize Trump’s racial and racist rhetoric. That fits with their general political approach — even before Trump, many of these people had long suggested that the GOP needed to change its policies and outreach to appeal more to Black voters.
Pro-Trump Conservatives/Republicans
Major Figures: Kentucky Attorney General Daniel Cameron, Housing and Urban Development Secretary Ben Carson, Kanye West.
Kentucky Attorney General Daniel Cameron, Housing and Urban Development Secretary Ben Carson, Kanye West. Alliances : Allied with Trump and his administration.
: Allied with Trump and his administration. Geography : Same as the Trump-skeptical Republicans.
: Same as the Trump-skeptical Republicans. Ideology: Conservative on many policy issues and not critical of Trump on identity and race issues.
It’s not necessarily that people in this bloc agree with everything that Trump says on racial issues, but more that they aren’t usually going to criticize him in public. This is a tiny group — but if Trump wins a second term, I would expect this bloc to grow, with more Black Republicans putting their political ambitions ahead of whatever qualms they may have about the president’s rhetoric.
Again, none of this is an exact science. But these divides among Black political figures are important and often a little hard to see clearly, since nearly all of these politicians are Democrats and most of them broadly agree on major issues. If, for example, Harris is named Biden’s running mate, there will be some Black Democrats who are excited about that and others who are more lukewarm. This is not Barack Obama’s party anymore — but at least for now, it’s not Kamala Harris’s party or Jamaal Bowman’s party or Hakeem Jeffries’s party or James Clyburn’s party either.
FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast: Biden Is Currently Competitive In Georgia And Texas


fivethirthyeight--2020-06-30--The Pats Could Only Go 3 Months Without An MVP Quarterback

We begin with the big news out of NFL free agency .
Former league MVP Cam Newton will join the New England Patriots on a one-year contract so low-risk for the Pats that it reminds us why New England tends to run strategic rings around every other team in the league .
While Newton needs to be healthy to perform , the upside could be huge for both him and head coach Bill Belichick , who has been building a team more around the run anyway and probably has a lot of ideas saved up over the past two decades @ @ @ @ @ @ @ can actually move .
We are not convinced that this changes the balance of power in the AFC — though we do offer a moment of silence for the glimmer of hope that Geoff ’ s beloved Jets could have excelled in the AFC East .
Nor did this make us forget that the Patriots got caught cheating .
Again .
But , at the very least , the Belichick/Newton partnership could be really fun to watch .
Next , we talk about the latest round of athletes speaking out against injustice , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ notable example is Mississippi State running back Kylin Hill , who vowed that he wouldn ’ t play for the school until Mississippi removed the Confederate battle flag from its state flag .
But other athletes — including those at Kansas State , Clemson and Oklahoma State — have also spoken out against racism , homophobia and lax health protocols during the coronavirus outbreak .
College athletes are in a unique position , especially when they band together , of being able to exert economic pressure without having much to lose — it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ getting paid to play anyway .
Plus , they ’ re coming of age with more and more recent examples of how to speak out and engage in activism from the pros .
Colin Kaepernick is maybe the most prominent , but the WNBA ’ s Maya Moore offers a concrete , and inspiring , template for athletes who want to leverage their careers to make positive change .
Finally , Neil and Geoff take over the Rabbit Hole to talk about how pro golfer Bryson DeChambeau might , in fact , be @ @ @ @ @ @ @ evidence ?
He ’ s a total stats and analytics nerd who has gained about 40 pounds of muscle in the last nine months .
While adding a Sammy Sosa level of bulk doesn ’ t automatically guarantee greater efficiency per swing , the change has put DeChambeau in the hunt for first in every tournament he ’ s played — and made him a lot more money .
What we ’ re looking at this week : • How Cam Newton brings game-changing mobility to the Patriots .
• What it meant @ @ @ @ @ @ @ career to lobby for justice .

We begin with the big news out of NFL free agency. Former league MVP Cam Newton will join the New England Patriots on a one-year contract so low-risk for the Pats that it reminds us why New England tends to run strategic rings around every other team in the league. While Newton needs to be healthy to perform, the upside could be huge for both him and head coach Bill Belichick, who has been building a team more around the run anyway and probably has a lot of ideas saved up over the past two decades about how to use a quarterback who can actually move. We are not convinced that this changes the balance of power in the AFC — though we do offer a moment of silence for the glimmer of hope that Geoff’s beloved Jets could have excelled in the AFC East. Nor did this make us forget that the Patriots got caught cheating. Again. But, at the very least, the Belichick/Newton partnership could be really fun to watch.
Next, we talk about the latest round of athletes speaking out against injustice, particularly in college football. The most notable example is Mississippi State running back Kylin Hill, who vowed that he wouldn’t play for the school until Mississippi removed the Confederate battle flag from its state flag. But other athletes — including those at Kansas State, Clemson and Oklahoma State — have also spoken out against racism, homophobia and lax health protocols during the coronavirus outbreak. College athletes are in a unique position, especially when they band together, of being able to exert economic pressure without having much to lose — it’s not like they’re getting paid to play anyway. Plus, they’re coming of age with more and more recent examples of how to speak out and engage in activism from the pros. Colin Kaepernick is maybe the most prominent, but the WNBA’s Maya Moore offers a concrete, and inspiring, template for athletes who want to leverage their careers to make positive change.
Finally, Neil and Geoff take over the Rabbit Hole to talk about how pro golfer Bryson DeChambeau might, in fact, be a real life Incredible Hulk. The evidence? He’s a total stats and analytics nerd who has gained about 40 pounds of muscle in the last nine months. While adding a Sammy Sosa level of bulk doesn’t automatically guarantee greater efficiency per swing, the change has put DeChambeau in the hunt for first in every tournament he’s played — and made him a lot more money.
What we’re looking at this week: