fivethirthyeight--2020-10-02--Republicans Are Less Confident Than Democrats That The Election Will Be Conducted Fairly

Welcome to Pollapalooza , our weekly polling roundup .
During Tuesday ’ s presidential debate , President Trump once again refused to commit to accepting the results of the 2020 election .
He also repeatedly made misleading or false claims about the integrity of the election .
It ’ s no surprise , then , that many Americans are pessimistic about whether the election will be free and fair .
At the moment , these doubts are most pronounced among Republicans , who are far more likely to trust or believe the president than Democrats or independents .
In a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ released ahead of Tuesday ’ s debate , 56 percent of Americans said they were “ not too confident ” or “ not at all confident ” that the election would be conducted in a free and equal way , including 65 percent of Republicans .
And as the chart below shows , Republicans in that tracking poll have consistently been more likely to say they lack confidence in the electoral process than Democrats or independents .
One reason Republicans are more concerned at this point is because Trump and the GOP have @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the electoral process , in particular the use of mail voting .
Historically , mail voting hadn ’ t been a partisan issue , but now most Republicans don ’ t trust it : In that NBC News/SurveyMonkey poll , 79 percent of Republicans said they opposed changing election laws to allow everyone to vote by mail , though 53 percent of Americans overall supported the idea .
Other surveys have also found that Republicans have more doubts about the fairness of the election .
A poll released on Monday by Monmouth University @ @ @ @ @ @ @ weren ’ t confident that the election would be conducted fairly and accurately , including 44 percent of Republicans and 31 percent of Democrats .
Meanwhile , in The Economist/YouGov ’ s weekly poll , 28 percent of registered voters said they had only a little confidence or none at all that the 2020 election would be held fairly .
The differences by party were smaller here — 30 percent of Republicans and 24 percent of Democrats held this view — but Democrats were more likely to say they had a great deal @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the election ( 44 percent ) than Republicans ( 32 percent ) .
Overall , Democrats have more confidence about the election than Republicans , but there is plenty of doubt , too .
In the latest NBC News/SurveyMonkey poll , half of all Democrats said they were confident the election process would be free and equal , the first time since early August that at least 50 percent of Democratic respondents to this survey ’ s question felt that way .
However , a new Politico/Morning Consult poll found that 36 percent @ @ @ @ @ @ @ election would be free and fair , including 41 percent of Democrats and just 31 percent of Republicans .
Democrats also expressed slightly less trust in the U.S. electoral system ( 62 percent ) than Republicans ( 72 percent ) .
It ’ s worth noting , though , that question wording and which part of the electoral process is being asked about can influence how people respond .
For instance , an NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist College poll asked if voters were confident that their state and local governments would run a fair and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of likely voters said they weren ’ t confident .
Republicans were still more likely to express doubts ( 30 percent ) than Democrats ( 18 percent ) , but those numbers suggest that respondents have comparatively more faith in state and local officials carrying out the election than they have in the electoral process more generally .
Similarly , 57 percent of registered voters told The Economist/YouGov that they had a great deal or quite a bit of confidence that their own vote would be counted , while only 36 percent expressed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ election as a whole would be held fairly .
The bottom line , however , is that a lot of Americans don ’ t trust the electoral system , and more probably had faith in the electoral process four years ago than they do now .
In September 2016 , 59 percent of registered voters in an NBC News/Wall Street Journal survey said that the result of the election would be counted accurately , while only 34 percent disagreed .
But this past August , the same pollster found registered voters split on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ confidence that the results would be accurately counted and 45 percent saying they weren ’ t confident .
• Morning Consult asked Americans about how the recent news about Trump ’ s tax returns and business losses affected their views of the president .
The poll found that before being told about the news , 54 percent felt Trump was a successful businessman , but after hearing the story , that figure fell to 44 percent .
The poll also found that 50 percent of voters thought Trump ’ s business interests were @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to his decision-making as president , while just 31 percent viewed them as a good thing .
And 47 percent said it was a “ major issue ” that Trump had misled Americans about his financial success .
• A new poll from Reuters/Ipsos found that 48 percent of Americans believed the New York Times ’ s report about Trump ’ s tax returns , while 25 percent did not ( 27 percent said they didn ’ t know ) .
However , a plurality ( 47 percent ) said the Times ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ businessman who knew how to avoid paying taxes , while 32 percent said it depicted the president as an unsuccessful businessman drowning in debt .
That said , a majority ( 51 percent ) still said Trump had not been paying his fair share in taxes , while just 26 percent said he had .
• With the possibility the Supreme Court will have a 6-3 conservative majority if Amy Coney Barrett is confirmed by the Senate , NBC News/SurveyMonkey found that 66 percent of Americans did not want Roe v. Wade “ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Republicans were more likely to express support for dismantling the ruling that protects a women ’ s constitutional right to an abortion , but 47 percent of Republicans still opposed overturning the law , as did 86 percent of Democrats and 71 percent of independents .
• In terms of filling the Supreme Court vacancy , Monmouth University found that 51 percent of registered voters disapproved of Trump filling the seat before the election , while 46 percent approved .
However , a majority ( 53 percent ) thought the U.S. Senate @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s nominee .
Meanwhile , the New York Times/Siena College found that 56 percent of likely voters felt the winner of the election should get to fill the seat , but they were split on whether the Senate should act ( 47 percent ) or not act ( 48 percent ) on Trump ’ s nominee ahead of the election .
The Times/Siena survey also found more voters trusted Biden ( 50 percent ) than Trump ( 43 percent ) to pick the next justice .
• A new study from the Pew @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of Americans believe the federal government should be responsible for health care coverage .
Overall , 63 percent supported either a single national government program or a mix of government and private programs to achieve that aim , up from 59 percent in 2019 .
Meanwhile , 37 percent preferred the current system of Medicare for the elderly and Medicaid for the poor , or said they didn ’ t want government involvement of any kind .
• Speaking of governmental intervention , a new poll from Gallup found that 54 percent of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to solve the nation ’ s problems , while 41 percent said the government is doing too much .
Gallup has been polling on this question for about three decades , and this marked the first time an outright majority of Americans have preferred more government intervention .
• In a survey by Univision News/Latino Decisions/North Star Opinion Research , 66 percent of Latino registered voters planned to support Biden , compared to 24 percent who plan to back Trump .
But it also found Biden ahead by only 16 points among Latino @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 36 percent .
If Biden struggles to run up his margins among Latino voters in that key swing state , Trump could carry Florida , which is critical to his chances of winning the election .
• The Institute for Social Policy and Understanding released the 2020 American Muslim Poll , an annual snapshot of the views and experiences of American Muslims .
The survey found that Muslims were more likely to support working with Black Lives Matter and more likely to attend town hall meetings than other religious groups , but they @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to vote .
Additionally , 60 percent reported experiencing religious discrimination , and compared to the non-Muslim population , they were far more likely to say they ’ d encountered discrimination at the airport or when applying for a job .
According to FiveThirtyEight ’ s presidential approval tracker , 43.9 percent of Americans approve of the job Trump is doing as president , while 52.8 percent disapprove ( a net approval rating of -8.9 points ) .
At this time last week , 42.9 percent approved and 53.2 percent disapproved ( a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
One month ago , Trump had an approval rating of 43.3 percent and a disapproval rating of 53.0 percent , for a net approval rating of -9.7 points .
In our average of polls of the generic congressional ballot , Democrats currently lead by 6.1 percentage points ( 48.8 percent to 42.7 percent ) .
A week ago , Democrats led Republicans by 6.4 points ( 48.8 percent to 42.3 percent ) .
At this time last month , voters preferred Democrats by 7.3 points ( 48.5 percent to 41.2 percent ) @

Welcome to Pollapalooza, our weekly polling roundup.
Poll(s) of the week
During Tuesday’s presidential debate, President Trump once again refused to commit to accepting the results of the 2020 election. He also repeatedly made misleading or false claims about the integrity of the election.
It’s no surprise, then, that many Americans are pessimistic about whether the election will be free and fair. At the moment, these doubts are most pronounced among Republicans, who are far more likely to trust or believe the president than Democrats or independents.
In a NBC News/SurveyMonkey’s weekly tracking poll released ahead of Tuesday’s debate, 56 percent of Americans said they were “not too confident” or “not at all confident” that the election would be conducted in a free and equal way, including 65 percent of Republicans. And as the chart below shows, Republicans in that tracking poll have consistently been more likely to say they lack confidence in the electoral process than Democrats or independents.
One reason Republicans are more concerned at this point is because Trump and the GOP have for many months now cast doubt on the electoral process, in particular the use of mail voting. Historically, mail voting hadn’t been a partisan issue, but now most Republicans don’t trust it: In that NBC News/SurveyMonkey poll, 79 percent of Republicans said they opposed changing election laws to allow everyone to vote by mail, though 53 percent of Americans overall supported the idea.
Other surveys have also found that Republicans have more doubts about the fairness of the election. A poll released on Monday by Monmouth University found that 39 percent of registered voters weren’t confident that the election would be conducted fairly and accurately, including 44 percent of Republicans and 31 percent of Democrats. Meanwhile, in The Economist/YouGov’s weekly poll, 28 percent of registered voters said they had only a little confidence or none at all that the 2020 election would be held fairly. The differences by party were smaller here — 30 percent of Republicans and 24 percent of Democrats held this view — but Democrats were more likely to say they had a great deal or quite a bit of confidence in the election (44 percent) than Republicans (32 percent).
Overall, Democrats have more confidence about the election than Republicans, but there is plenty of doubt, too. In the latest NBC News/SurveyMonkey poll, half of all Democrats said they were confident the election process would be free and equal, the first time since early August that at least 50 percent of Democratic respondents to this survey’s question felt that way. However, a new Politico/Morning Consult poll found that 36 percent of voters didn’t think the election would be free and fair, including 41 percent of Democrats and just 31 percent of Republicans. Democrats also expressed slightly less trust in the U.S. electoral system (62 percent) than Republicans (72 percent).
It’s worth noting, though, that question wording and which part of the electoral process is being asked about can influence how people respond. For instance, an NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist College poll asked if voters were confident that their state and local governments would run a fair and accurate election, and only 26 percent of likely voters said they weren’t confident. Republicans were still more likely to express doubts (30 percent) than Democrats (18 percent), but those numbers suggest that respondents have comparatively more faith in state and local officials carrying out the election than they have in the electoral process more generally. Similarly, 57 percent of registered voters told The Economist/YouGov that they had a great deal or quite a bit of confidence that their own vote would be counted, while only 36 percent expressed the same level of confidence that the election as a whole would be held fairly.
The bottom line, however, is that a lot of Americans don’t trust the electoral system, and more probably had faith in the electoral process four years ago than they do now. In September 2016, 59 percent of registered voters in an NBC News/Wall Street Journal survey said that the result of the election would be counted accurately, while only 34 percent disagreed. But this past August, the same pollster found registered voters split on that question, with 45 percent expressing confidence that the results would be accurately counted and 45 percent saying they weren’t confident.
Other polling bites
Trump approval
According to FiveThirtyEight’s presidential approval tracker, 43.9 percent of Americans approve of the job Trump is doing as president, while 52.8 percent disapprove (a net approval rating of -8.9 points). At this time last week, 42.9 percent approved and 53.2 percent disapproved (a net approval rating of -10.3 points). One month ago, Trump had an approval rating of 43.3 percent and a disapproval rating of 53.0 percent, for a net approval rating of -9.7 points.
Generic ballot
In our average of polls of the generic congressional ballot, Democrats currently lead by 6.1 percentage points (48.8 percent to 42.7 percent). A week ago, Democrats led Republicans by 6.4 points (48.8 percent to 42.3 percent). At this time last month, voters preferred Democrats by 7.3 points (48.5 percent to 41.2 percent).


fivethirthyeight--2020-10-02--Trump Has An Elevated Risk Of Severe COVID-19. But It Helps To Be The President.

President Trump has COVID-19 .
In some ways , that seems inevitable — the campaign trail is a high-contact sport , and the president was cavalier about public health guidelines .
But what comes next is anything but certain .
And it depends on who the president is , not just what he does .
Though Trump is in overall good health according to his publicly released annual physicals ( which , it ’ s worth noting , only includes details at the discretion of the president ’ s doctor ) , he has a few risk factors that increase @ @ @ @ @ @ @ hospitalization , and death .
He is 74 years old , male , and obese — at 6 feet , 3 inches tall and 244 pounds , his body mass index is 30.5 , just over the line for the definition of obesity .
While Trump doesn ’ t have hypertension , his latest physical said his blood pressure is 121 over 79 , which is considered “ elevated.
” But just how risky are these factors ?
Let ’ s start with age .
When it comes to COVID-19 , the older @ @ @ @ @ @ @ risk of severe illness , hospitalization , ventilation and death .
Underlying issues like high blood pressure and diabetes increase risk , too , and are often associated with age , but the riskiest comorbidity is just how long you ’ ve been alive .
“ Even when controlling for a huge number of comorbidities , age is still the most important predictor of death , ” said Marm Kilpatrick , an infectious disease biologist at the University of California , Santa Cruz .
This has been documented in lots of studies over @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of the most comprehensive was published in Nature in July .
Researchers from Oxford and the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine looked at the medical records of more than 17 million adult patients in the U.K. ( some of whom tested positive for COVID-19 and some of whom did not ) and found that the risk of death from COVID-19 increased with age , even when adjusting for all other risk factors .
Patients aged 70-79 were 6.07 times more likely to die of COVID-19 than those 50-59 , and patients @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to die compared to the 50-somethings .
In the U.S. , 8 out of 10 COVID-19-related deaths have been in adults age 65 and older , according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention , and patients aged 65-74 were 5 times more likely to be hospitalized and 90 times more likely to die from COVID-19 when compared to those aged 18-29 .
Why ?
Older people tend to have a higher prevalence of underlying illnesses that we know increase risk , along with declining immune responses .
Being a man also @ @ @ @ @ @ @ adverse effects than the first lady , who also tested positive for COVID-19 .
Again , multiple studies have documented the correlation between sex and more severe outcomes for a COVID-19 infection , though the precise numbers vary .
In the U.S. , nearly 1.5 times more men than women in Trump ’ s age cohort have died because of COVID-19 .
Part of this sex difference is still a mystery to researchers , but a new paper published last week in Science found that a genetic predisposition to certain immune responses was @ @ @ @ @ @ @ partially explain the gap .
Lastly , we know that the president ’ s weight also likely puts him at a greater risk of a severe or deadly bout of COVID-19 .
One meta-analysis of research published in August found that , when compared to patients of a healthy weight , people with obesity who contracted COVID-19 were 113 percent more likely to be hospitalized , 74 percent more likely to be admitted to an ICU , and 48 percent more likely to die .
The CDC has stated that obesity could triple @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
And similar to age , obesity is one factor that can increase a person ’ s risk of adverse effects independent of other factors — even young , otherwise healthy patients are at a greater risk of severe infection , hospitalization , and death if they ’ re obese , according to Dr. Nitin Mohan , an infectious disease specialist at Western University in Canada .
“ It ’ s one of those risk factors that , regardless of age , it ’ s a serious risk to have with COVID , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ body goes through any kind of disease process , your immune system is taxed and it works quite hard .
The healthier you are , the better chance you have.
” Though Trump is on the cusp of obesity , being overweight is a risk factor as well , so his weight is still a concern even if he ’ s dropped a few pounds since his last physical .
That said , there is at least some dispute among the scientific community about how big a role weight plays as a risk @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of 88 , 747 veterans in the U.S. found obesity was not a statistically significant risk factor for death .
But the president is , well , the president .
And while his biology may be putting him in a riskier category , his social status is working in his favor .
Being wealthy , white and in possession of a college degree all make you less vulnerable to hospitalization for COVID-19 .
Why ?
Basically because of the way our economy works .
Being a person of color , or a part @ @ @ @ @ @ @ not having a college degree — all of those things are associated with both a lack of access to health care ( both after a COVID-19 diagnosis and throughout their earlier lives ) and a higher likelihood of working in the service industry or a similar field where exposure risk is high .
And even though there hasn ’ t been a lot of research into differential outcomes between the kind of health care an average rich white man might get and the kind of health care available to Trump right now , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ hurt .
“ If anyone has better odds of surviving than any other 74-year-old with his characteristics , it ’ s probably the president of the United States , ” said Andrew Azman , an infectious disease epidemiologist at Johns Hopkins University .
Right now , the president reportedly has only mild symptoms and we can assume he is under constant , high-quality medical care .
Those are things that could indicate a milder course of the disease , Azman said .
And while comparing to his demographic cohort is far from a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ will fare , it ’ s our best indicator of the likelihood he could face more severe outcomes .
“ Our best guess is the population average for people that look like him , ” Azman said .
“ But we know that he is not the average person .
”

President Trump has COVID-19. In some ways, that seems inevitable — the campaign trail is a high-contact sport, and the president was cavalier about public health guidelines. But what comes next is anything but certain. And it depends on who the president is, not just what he does.
Though Trump is in overall good health according to his publicly released annual physicals (which, it’s worth noting, only includes details at the discretion of the president’s doctor), he has a few risk factors that increase the odds of a severe infection, hospitalization, and death. He is 74 years old, male, and obese — at 6 feet, 3 inches tall and 244 pounds, his body mass index is 30.5, just over the line for the definition of obesity. While Trump doesn’t have hypertension, his latest physical said his blood pressure is 121 over 79, which is considered “elevated.” But just how risky are these factors?
Let’s start with age. When it comes to COVID-19, the older you are, the more elevated your risk of severe illness, hospitalization, ventilation and death. Underlying issues like high blood pressure and diabetes increase risk, too, and are often associated with age, but the riskiest comorbidity is just how long you’ve been alive.
“Even when controlling for a huge number of comorbidities, age is still the most important predictor of death,” said Marm Kilpatrick, an infectious disease biologist at the University of California, Santa Cruz.
This has been documented in lots of studies over the last few months, but one of the most comprehensive was published in Nature in July. Researchers from Oxford and the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine looked at the medical records of more than 17 million adult patients in the U.K. (some of whom tested positive for COVID-19 and some of whom did not) and found that the risk of death from COVID-19 increased with age, even when adjusting for all other risk factors. Patients aged 70-79 were 6.07 times more likely to die of COVID-19 than those 50-59, and patients over 80 were 20.6 times more likely to die compared to the 50-somethings.
In the U.S., 8 out of 10 COVID-19-related deaths have been in adults age 65 and older, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and patients aged 65-74 were 5 times more likely to be hospitalized and 90 times more likely to die from COVID-19 when compared to those aged 18-29. Why? Older people tend to have a higher prevalence of underlying illnesses that we know increase risk, along with declining immune responses.
Being a man also puts Trump at a higher risk of adverse effects than the first lady, who also tested positive for COVID-19. Again, multiple studies have documented the correlation between sex and more severe outcomes for a COVID-19 infection, though the precise numbers vary. In the U.S., nearly 1.5 times more men than women in Trump’s age cohort have died because of COVID-19. Part of this sex difference is still a mystery to researchers, but a new paper published last week in Science found that a genetic predisposition to certain immune responses was more prevalent in men, which could partially explain the gap.
Lastly, we know that the president’s weight also likely puts him at a greater risk of a severe or deadly bout of COVID-19. One meta-analysis of research published in August found that, when compared to patients of a healthy weight, people with obesity who contracted COVID-19 were 113 percent more likely to be hospitalized, 74 percent more likely to be admitted to an ICU, and 48 percent more likely to die. The CDC has stated that obesity could triple the risk of hospitalization due to COVID-19. And similar to age, obesity is one factor that can increase a person’s risk of adverse effects independent of other factors — even young, otherwise healthy patients are at a greater risk of severe infection, hospitalization, and death if they’re obese, according to Dr. Nitin Mohan, an infectious disease specialist at Western University in Canada.
“It’s one of those risk factors that, regardless of age, it’s a serious risk to have with COVID,” Mohan said. “When the body goes through any kind of disease process, your immune system is taxed and it works quite hard. The healthier you are, the better chance you have.”
Though Trump is on the cusp of obesity, being overweight is a risk factor as well, so his weight is still a concern even if he’s dropped a few pounds since his last physical. That said, there is at least some dispute among the scientific community about how big a role weight plays as a risk factor in COVID-19: A recent study of 88, 747 veterans in the U.S. found obesity was not a statistically significant risk factor for death.
But the president is, well, the president. And while his biology may be putting him in a riskier category, his social status is working in his favor. Being wealthy, white and in possession of a college degree all make you less vulnerable to hospitalization for COVID-19. Why? Basically because of the way our economy works. Being a person of color, or a part of a lower socioeconomic class, or not having a college degree — all of those things are associated with both a lack of access to health care (both after a COVID-19 diagnosis and throughout their earlier lives) and a higher likelihood of working in the service industry or a similar field where exposure risk is high. And even though there hasn’t been a lot of research into differential outcomes between the kind of health care an average rich white man might get and the kind of health care available to Trump right now, his political status probably doesn’t hurt.
“If anyone has better odds of surviving than any other 74-year-old with his characteristics, it’s probably the president of the United States,” said Andrew Azman, an infectious disease epidemiologist at Johns Hopkins University.
Right now, the president reportedly has only mild symptoms and we can assume he is under constant, high-quality medical care. Those are things that could indicate a milder course of the disease, Azman said. And while comparing to his demographic cohort is far from a crystal ball predictor of exactly how Trump will fare, it’s our best indicator of the likelihood he could face more severe outcomes.
“Our best guess is the population average for people that look like him,” Azman said. “But we know that he is not the average person.”


fivethirthyeight--2020-10-02--Trump Tested Positive For COVID-19. Now What?

In this episode of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast , the team reacts to the news that President Trump tested positive @ @ @

Trump Tested Positive For COVID-19. Now What?
In this episode of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the team reacts to the news that President Trump tested positive for COVID-19.


fivethirthyeight--2020-10-02--The Heat Need Duncan Robinson’s 3-Pointers Now More Than Ever

Miami Heat forward Duncan Robinson was among the best 3-point shooters in the NBA this season , but it wasn ’ t until play started in the bubble that reporters and analysts began referring to him as a “ specialist.
” With the Heat facing a 1-0 deficit to the Los Angeles Lakers in the NBA Finals and likely down two of their best players for Game 2 tonight , they ’ ll need Robinson to provide that elite shooting that has helped them on their playoff run .
In just his second year in the league , Robinson ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the regular season ranked 13th behind superstars like James Harden ( 12.4 ) , Damian Lillard ( 10.2 ) and Luka Dončić ( 8.9 ) .
But his 44.6 shooting percentage from deep topped all 12 of the shooters ranked above him .
In the postseason , Robinson is shooting 40 percent from deep and averaging 7.1 attempts per game .
What ’ s been even more impressive is the share of Robinson ’ s shots that come from downtown — and the Heat ’ s ability to get him so many good @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Robinson had attempted 88.7 percent of his shots in the playoffs from behind the 3-point line — the highest rate for a shooter averaging at least seven field-goal attempts per game in the postseason since at least 2013-14 .
In an interview on J.J. Reddick ’ s on The Old Man and the Three podcast , Robinson said it ’ s all part of Miami ’ s game plan that he hoists so many shot attempts from 3-point range .
“ It ’ s not like I ’ m not allowed to take @ @ @ @ @ @ @ But it is by design , in that they want [ the ] majority of my shots to be threes.
” That was on full display during the Eastern Conference finals .
In the six-game series with the Boston Celtics , Robinson didn ’ t attempt a single 2-point shot until the third quarter of Game 4 , which came after nearly 30 attempted three-pointers .
He ended the series with 49 attempts from three and just six from two .
During the conference finals , Robinson spent most of his time on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 24 minutes , 37 seconds ) and Marcus Smart ( 11 minutes , 12 seconds ) , who are both considered to be among the top perimeter defenders in the league .
Smart is a back-to-back All-Defensive First Team selection , and Brown , who allowed the lowest field-goal percentage of any Celtics player to have appeared in more than three games this postseason , received votes for the All-Defensive Team both this season and last season .
The decision by the Celtics coaching staff to match its best defenders on Robinson was @ @ @ @ @ @ @ shooting is to opposing teams .
“ I ’ m not even taking any twos , ” Robinson said about the Celtics defense .
“ So they ’ re scheming against me from taking threes .
It just becomes how creative I can get to get them off.
” That creativity paid off .
Robinson made at least two threes in all but one game against the Celtics and shot 50 percent or better from deep in three of the six games .
Robinson opened Game 2 by making four of his six @ @ @ @ @ @ @ with a total of 12 shots taken from behind the arc .
One tool the Heat uses to get so many 3-point shot attempts is the handoff , in which the ball-handler gives the ball to Robinson then sets a screen along the 3-point line .
During the regular season , Robinson was the beneficiary of 373 handoffs , the 22nd most in the league ; those led to 104 made threes , the most off that play .
On handoffs , Robinson is able to rub the screener and force his defender @ @ @ @ @ @ @ with his 6-foot-7 frame , he can create separation for an open look at the rim .
Robinson shoots a high percentage on contested shots as well as open shots , so he needs only a sliver of space to be able to get what he would consider a good look at the rim .
During the regular season , Robinson shot over 41 percent on contested threes .
His numbers have slightly dipped in the postseason , but he is still shooting over 38 percent on those tightly defended threes .
Robinson @ @ @ @ @ @ @ each series the Heat has played this postseason .
Game 1 of the NBA Finals was no different : He was held scoreless on just three shot attempts .
All of those were 3-pointers , and two were uncontested , but he wasn ’ t able to connect .
If Robinson can rediscover both his creativity to find good looks and his ability to knock down those threes , he could play a large role in helping the shorthanded Heat tie this series .

Miami Heat forward Duncan Robinson was among the best 3-point shooters in the NBA this season, but it wasn’t until play started in the bubble that reporters and analysts began referring to him as a “specialist.” With the Heat facing a 1-0 deficit to the Los Angeles Lakers in the NBA Finals and likely down two of their best players for Game 2 tonight, they’ll need Robinson to provide that elite shooting that has helped them on their playoff run.
In just his second year in the league, Robinson’s 8.3 3-point attempts per game during the regular season ranked 13th behind superstars like James Harden (12.4), Damian Lillard (10.2) and Luka Dončić (8.9). But his 44.6 shooting percentage from deep topped all 12 of the shooters ranked above him. In the postseason, Robinson is shooting 40 percent from deep and averaging 7.1 attempts per game.
What’s been even more impressive is the share of Robinson’s shots that come from downtown — and the Heat’s ability to get him so many good looks.
Entering the NBA Finals, Robinson had attempted 88.7 percent of his shots in the playoffs from behind the 3-point line — the highest rate for a shooter averaging at least seven field-goal attempts per game in the postseason since at least 2013-14.
In an interview on J.J. Reddick’s on The Old Man and the Three podcast, Robinson said it’s all part of Miami’s game plan that he hoists so many shot attempts from 3-point range. “It’s not like I’m not allowed to take twos,” he said. “But it is by design, in that they want [the] majority of my shots to be threes.”
That was on full display during the Eastern Conference finals. In the six-game series with the Boston Celtics, Robinson didn’t attempt a single 2-point shot until the third quarter of Game 4, which came after nearly 30 attempted three-pointers. He ended the series with 49 attempts from three and just six from two.
During the conference finals, Robinson spent most of his time on the court guarded by Jaylen Brown (24 minutes, 37 seconds) and Marcus Smart (11 minutes, 12 seconds), who are both considered to be among the top perimeter defenders in the league. Smart is a back-to-back All-Defensive First Team selection, and Brown, who allowed the lowest field-goal percentage of any Celtics player to have appeared in more than three games this postseason, received votes for the All-Defensive Team both this season and last season.
The decision by the Celtics coaching staff to match its best defenders on Robinson was an acknowledgment of the threat that his shooting is to opposing teams. “I’m not even taking any twos,” Robinson said about the Celtics defense. “So they’re scheming against me from taking threes. It just becomes how creative I can get to get them off.”
That creativity paid off. Robinson made at least two threes in all but one game against the Celtics and shot 50 percent or better from deep in three of the six games. Robinson opened Game 2 by making four of his six first-quarter 3-point attempts and ended the game with a total of 12 shots taken from behind the arc.
One tool the Heat uses to get so many 3-point shot attempts is the handoff, in which the ball-handler gives the ball to Robinson then sets a screen along the 3-point line. During the regular season, Robinson was the beneficiary of 373 handoffs, the 22nd most in the league; those led to 104 made threes, the most off that play. On handoffs, Robinson is able to rub the screener and force his defender directly into the screen. Then, with his 6-foot-7 frame, he can create separation for an open look at the rim.
Robinson shoots a high percentage on contested shots as well as open shots, so he needs only a sliver of space to be able to get what he would consider a good look at the rim. During the regular season, Robinson shot over 41 percent on contested threes. His numbers have slightly dipped in the postseason, but he is still shooting over 38 percent on those tightly defended threes.
Robinson has struggled in the first game of each series the Heat has played this postseason. Game 1 of the NBA Finals was no different: He was held scoreless on just three shot attempts. All of those were 3-pointers, and two were uncontested, but he wasn’t able to connect. If Robinson can rediscover both his creativity to find good looks and his ability to knock down those threes, he could play a large role in helping the shorthanded Heat tie this series.
Check out our latest NBA predictions.


fivethirthyeight--2020-10-02--Emergency Politics Podcast: Trump Tests Positive For COVID-19

President Trump announced early Friday morning that he and first lady Melania Trump had tested positive for COVID-19 .
In @ @ @ @ @ FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast , science writer Maggie Koerth joins the crew to discuss what ’ @ @ @ @ @ You can listen to the episode by clicking the “ play ” button in the @ @ @ @ @ downloading it in iTunes , the ESPN App or your favorite podcast platform .
If @ @ @ @ @ , learn how to listen .
The FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast is recorded Mondays and Thursdays @ @ @ @ @ the show by leaving us a rating and review on iTunes .
Have a comment @ @ @ @ @ “ good polling vs. bad polling ” ?
Get in touch by email , on @ @ @ @ @ .

President Trump announced early Friday morning that he and first lady Melania Trump had tested positive for COVID-19. In this emergency edition of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, science writer Maggie Koerth joins the crew to discuss what’s possible going forward.
You can listen to the episode by clicking the “play” button in the audio player above or by downloading it in iTunes, the ESPN App or your favorite podcast platform. If you are new to podcasts, learn how to listen.
The FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast is recorded Mondays and Thursdays. Help new listeners discover the show by leaving us a rating and review on iTunes. Have a comment, question or suggestion for “good polling vs. bad polling”? Get in touch by email, on Twitter or in the comments.


fivethirthyeight--2020-10-02--How Have People Responded To Other Political Leaders Getting COVID-19?

To state the obvious , we have no idea how the news that President Trump has COVID-19 will affect the presidential campaign — this is simply an unprecedented situation so close to an election .
Your best bet : Wait for new polls to be released over the coming days and weeks — any shift in the race should be reflected there .
That ’ s what we ’ ll be doing .
In the meantime , however , we can look at the closest possible analogy : how other political leaders have fared politically after they were diagnosed with @ @ @ @ @ @ @ contracted COVID-19 this spring and summer , most prominently British Prime Minister Boris Johnson and Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro .
And with the massive caveat that it was not election season in the United Kingdom ( which can make a real difference in the polls ) , it doesn ’ t appear that Johnson ’ s diagnosis affected his electoral fortunes .
According to Politico ’ s polling average of parliamentary voting intention , support for Johnson ’ s Conservative Party held steady at 51 percent for weeks following Johnson ’ s diagnosis @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a small uptick in his approval rating .
According to Morning Consult , 62 percent of Britons approved of Johnson on the day of his diagnosis ; shortly after he was hospitalized , it reached a peak of 66 percent .
Similarly , YouGov found that approval of the ( Johnson-led ) British government largely did not change in the weeks following Johnson ’ s diagnosis , but the share of people viewing him favorably did increase , from 54 percent before he was hospitalized to 60 percent after .
So one possibility @ @ @ @ @ @ @ or job approval rating will improve while the horse-race polls measuring vote intention generally stay the same — which perhaps makes sense in this era of intense partisanship .
Then again , maybe even Trump ’ s job approval rating won ’ t change — Bolsonaro ’ s didn ’ t after he announced he had tested positive on July 7 .
According to Morning Consult , Bolsonaro ’ s approval rating was 45 percent on July 7 and fluctuated between there and 47 percent until mid-August ( by which time he had @ @ @ @ @ @ @ three governors have contracted COVID-19 : Oklahoma ’ s Kevin Stitt in July , and Missouri ’ s Mike Parson and Virginia ’ s Ralph Northam just last week .
And while Parson ’ s and Northam ’ s diagnoses are too recent for us to have any polling data on , Stitt ’ s popularity appeared to ebb after his diagnosis — though , of course , that could be due to any number of factors .
According to polls by Amber Integrated , 62 percent of Oklahomans approved of Stitt ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 56 percent did in September .
( While that might seem high , remember Stitt is a Republican and Oklahoma is a very red state ; by our Popularity Above Replacement Governor metric , Stitt is actually 7 points less popular than he “ should ” be based on Oklahoma ’ s partisan lean . )
Granted , Stitt ’ s July illness probably wasn ’ t fresh in people ’ s minds by September , but another survey did find that approval of how Stitt was handling the coronavirus outbreak specifically did @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The COVID-19 Consortium for Understanding the Public ’ s Policy Preferences Across States gave him a 45 percent approval rating on the coronavirus in late June , but a 34 percent approval rating in late July ( and that number did not recover in late August ) .
Not many other governors experienced significant coronavirus approval rating drops during that same time frame , suggesting something specific to Oklahoma caused the decline .
If that happens to Trump , it could be bad news for him electorally , given that Americans consider the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ” for the most important problem facing the country today .
That said , Trump ’ s approval rating on the coronavirus is already very low — 40 percent approval , 57 percent disapproval , according to FiveThirtyEight ’ s tracker on the coronavirus — so he may not have much more room to fall .
Regardless , refocusing the national conversation on a poor issue for Trump during the final month of the election — as this news seems likely to do — is ominous for the incumbent .

How Have People Responded To Other Political Leaders Getting COVID-19? Trump isn’t the first world leader (or U.S. politician) to test positive, but he may be a unique case.
To state the obvious, we have no idea how the news that President Trump has COVID-19 will affect the presidential campaign — this is simply an unprecedented situation so close to an election. Your best bet: Wait for new polls to be released over the coming days and weeks — any shift in the race should be reflected there. That’s what we’ll be doing.
In the meantime, however, we can look at the closest possible analogy: how other political leaders have fared politically after they were diagnosed with COVID-19.
A handful of world leaders contracted COVID-19 this spring and summer, most prominently British Prime Minister Boris Johnson and Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro. And with the massive caveat that it was not election season in the United Kingdom (which can make a real difference in the polls), it doesn’t appear that Johnson’s diagnosis affected his electoral fortunes. According to Politico’s polling average of parliamentary voting intention, support for Johnson’s Conservative Party held steady at 51 percent for weeks following Johnson’s diagnosis.
However, it may have caused a small uptick in his approval rating. According to Morning Consult, 62 percent of Britons approved of Johnson on the day of his diagnosis; shortly after he was hospitalized, it reached a peak of 66 percent. Similarly, YouGov found that approval of the (Johnson-led) British government largely did not change in the weeks following Johnson’s diagnosis, but the share of people viewing him favorably did increase, from 54 percent before he was hospitalized to 60 percent after.
So one possibility is that Trump’s favorable rating or job approval rating will improve while the horse-race polls measuring vote intention generally stay the same — which perhaps makes sense in this era of intense partisanship. Then again, maybe even Trump’s job approval rating won’t change — Bolsonaro’s didn’t after he announced he had tested positive on July 7. According to Morning Consult, Bolsonaro’s approval rating was 45 percent on July 7 and fluctuated between there and 47 percent until mid-August (by which time he had recovered).
Closer to home, three governors have contracted COVID-19: Oklahoma’s Kevin Stitt in July, and Missouri’s Mike Parson and Virginia’s Ralph Northam just last week. And while Parson’s and Northam’s diagnoses are too recent for us to have any polling data on, Stitt’s popularity appeared to ebb after his diagnosis — though, of course, that could be due to any number of factors.
According to polls by Amber Integrated, 62 percent of Oklahomans approved of Stitt’s job performance in June, while 56 percent did in September. (While that might seem high, remember Stitt is a Republican and Oklahoma is a very red state; by our Popularity Above Replacement Governor metric, Stitt is actually 7 points less popular than he “should” be based on Oklahoma’s partisan lean.)
Granted, Stitt’s July illness probably wasn’t fresh in people’s minds by September, but another survey did find that approval of how Stitt was handling the coronavirus outbreak specifically did fall sharply right after his diagnosis. The COVID-19 Consortium for Understanding the Public’s Policy Preferences Across States gave him a 45 percent approval rating on the coronavirus in late June, but a 34 percent approval rating in late July (and that number did not recover in late August). Not many other governors experienced significant coronavirus approval rating drops during that same time frame, suggesting something specific to Oklahoma caused the decline.
If that happens to Trump, it could be bad news for him electorally, given that Americans consider the coronavirus tied with “the government/poor leadership” for the most important problem facing the country today. That said, Trump’s approval rating on the coronavirus is already very low — 40 percent approval, 57 percent disapproval, according to FiveThirtyEight’s tracker on the coronavirus — so he may not have much more room to fall.
Regardless, refocusing the national conversation on a poor issue for Trump during the final month of the election — as this news seems likely to do — is ominous for the incumbent.


fivethirthyeight--2020-10-02--September’s Jobs Report Is A Political Rorschach Test

The final jobs report before the presidential election is here .
In September , 661,000 more people were employed than in August , and the unemployment rate fell to 7.9 percent .
That ’ s a slight — but not huge — improvement over last month , when the unemployment rate was 8.4 percent .
( Compare this report ’ s 0.5-percentage-point decrease to the 1.8-point drop between July and August . )
So heading into the fall , employment is in a better position than it was in the spring and summer , but the recovery is also plainly @ @ @ @ @ @ @ weeks to go before the election , how much will that affect President Trump or former Vice President Joe Biden ’ s chances ?
Even in a normal year , our election analysis would be looking at the jobs report as just one economic indicator among many .
But this year is even weirder than usual because there ’ s kind of a Rorschach test element to the report — people of different political leanings can see what they want to see .
Historically , jobs reports released shortly before the election have @ @ @ @ @ @ @ party will do , although the last jobs report of the cycle isn ’ t necessarily the most reliable .
In the 18 presidential elections since 1948 , the unemployment rate in the September before an election has had little correlation with the incumbent party ’ s eventual popular vote margin .
But when you frame that September number relative to earlier months — particularly the previous six to 12 months — it has traditionally been a much stronger predictor of electoral success for the incumbent party .
( Though if you look @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , the correlation dissipates . )
This suggests that voters care most about how unemployment is trending in the six months to a year leading up to the election and will give the incumbent party credit — or blame — for that trend .
This is all well and good under normal circumstances .
But 2020 , of course , is about as far from normal as it gets .
And what the current economy means for Trump is very unclear .
The unemployment situation , in an absolute sense , looks bad @ @ @ @ @ @ @ September unemployment rate is the highest heading into any election since at least 1948 .
( It was 7.8 percent in September 2012 . )
But it could be much worse — things have been steadily improving over the past few months , with September ’ s unemployment rate coming in 6.8 percentage points lower than in April .
So even though the numbers might be awful if you look at them in a vacuum , the fact that unemployment is trending in the right direction could be read as good news for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ why Americans of different political stripes have wildly different views of the economy .
According to polling by Civiqs , for a fleeting moment early in the pandemic , there wasn ’ t such a big gap between Republicans and Democrats in terms of how they saw the economy .
But the gulf has widened considerably since then .
A poll conducted at the end of September found that 80 percent of Republicans thought the economy was in at least fairly good shape , compared to only 8 percent of Democrats .
That @ @ @ @ @ @ @ distinct ways of looking at the employment situation right now : Do you focus on the absolute level of unemployment ?
Or do you hold tight to the trend of the past few months ?
Depending on which lens you choose , you ’ re looking at a completely different economy .
If you look only at the past three or four jobs reports , the country appears to be making steady progress toward economic recovery .
If you look at the change over the past year , unemployment still appears catastrophically high @ @ @ @ @ @ @ these statements is wrong , exactly — it is true that workers are coming back on the job much more quickly than economists initially predicted , and it ’ s true that tens of millions of Americans are still out of work .
But together , it doesn ’ t make for a very clean political message — which is why Republicans and Democrats can each look at this jobs report and see good news for their candidate and bad news for their opponent .
“ Republicans are looking at the changes month-to-month @ @ @ @ @ @ @ creating millions of jobs every month ; we ’ re getting the economy back on track , ’ ” said Andrew Chamberlain , chief economist at the job search site Glassdoor .
“ And you have people on the left saying : ‘ There are still millions of Americans out of work and we had Depression-level changes in employment in April , May and June.
’ ” Partisanship being a helluva drug , there are ample opportunities for both sides to spin this most recent jobs report in whatever direction benefits them most @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Making things even more difficult to interpret , unemployment is just one of many factors that would be considered when assessing the country ’ s economic situation heading into the election .
In our election forecast model , payroll jobs are included as part of the economic picture that contributes to the overall prediction .
But we also incorporate a number of other economic indicators , and right now , some of those indicators are moving in opposite directions .
That ’ s because this is a really weird recession : Millions @ @ @ @ @ @ @ but savings and income remained elevated for months , at least in part because of the federal supplement to people ’ s unemployment checks .
Now that ’ s gone , but spending is still up a lot even though income has fallen a bit .
And don ’ t even talk to us about the stock market , which rallied this summer despite the other economic turmoil .
So from the perspective of the election model , the economic situation has improved since June and we ’ re basically at an average @ @ @ @ @ @ @ quite bad in a historical sense .
The last wrinkle is that the picture could still change between now and Election Day , according to Nick Bunker , the director of economic research for North America at the Indeed Hiring Lab , a research institute connected to the job-search site Indeed .
This year , the October jobs report will be released three days after the election .
( To be clear : the Bureau of Labor Statistics , the federal agency that produces the jobs report , did not do this on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ year , you wouldn ’ t expect the economy to change all that dramatically over the span of a month and a half , ” Bunker said .
But over the next five weeks , anything is possible .
And given that some voters are already casting ballots , any changes in October would mean that Americans who vote early could be making their choice for president in a fairly different economic reality than those who vote on Nov. 3 .
All of this means that it ’ s not clear if the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ — either candidate .
In the end , it might just be a wash. After all , very few voters are undecided .
And this report might , more than anything else , just be a reminder of why it ’ s possible for Republicans and Democrats to see the economy in totally different ways .

The final jobs report before the presidential election is here. In September, 661,000 more people were employed than in August, and the unemployment rate fell to 7.9 percent. That’s a slight — but not huge — improvement over last month, when the unemployment rate was 8.4 percent. (Compare this report’s 0.5-percentage-point decrease to the 1.8-point drop between July and August.)
So heading into the fall, employment is in a better position than it was in the spring and summer, but the recovery is also plainly slowing down. With less than five weeks to go before the election, how much will that affect President Trump or former Vice President Joe Biden’s chances?
Even in a normal year, our election analysis would be looking at the jobs report as just one economic indicator among many. But this year is even weirder than usual because there’s kind of a Rorschach test element to the report — people of different political leanings can see what they want to see.
Historically, jobs reports released shortly before the election have been reasonable bellwethers for how the incumbent party will do, although the last jobs report of the cycle isn’t necessarily the most reliable. In the 18 presidential elections since 1948, the unemployment rate in the September before an election has had little correlation with the incumbent party’s eventual popular vote margin. But when you frame that September number relative to earlier months — particularly the previous six to 12 months — it has traditionally been a much stronger predictor of electoral success for the incumbent party. (Though if you look at unemployment too far outside that window, the correlation dissipates.)
This suggests that voters care most about how unemployment is trending in the six months to a year leading up to the election and will give the incumbent party credit — or blame — for that trend.
This is all well and good under normal circumstances. But 2020, of course, is about as far from normal as it gets. And what the current economy means for Trump is very unclear. The unemployment situation, in an absolute sense, looks bad for an incumbent; a 7.9 percent September unemployment rate is the highest heading into any election since at least 1948. (It was 7.8 percent in September 2012.) But it could be much worse — things have been steadily improving over the past few months, with September’s unemployment rate coming in 6.8 percentage points lower than in April. So even though the numbers might be awful if you look at them in a vacuum, the fact that unemployment is trending in the right direction could be read as good news for Trump.
These varying interpretations are perhaps why Americans of different political stripes have wildly different views of the economy. According to polling by Civiqs, for a fleeting moment early in the pandemic, there wasn’t such a big gap between Republicans and Democrats in terms of how they saw the economy. But the gulf has widened considerably since then. A poll conducted at the end of September found that 80 percent of Republicans thought the economy was in at least fairly good shape, compared to only 8 percent of Democrats.
That dissonance might be related to those two distinct ways of looking at the employment situation right now: Do you focus on the absolute level of unemployment? Or do you hold tight to the trend of the past few months? Depending on which lens you choose, you’re looking at a completely different economy. If you look only at the past three or four jobs reports, the country appears to be making steady progress toward economic recovery. If you look at the change over the past year, unemployment still appears catastrophically high.
The trouble is that neither of these statements is wrong, exactly — it is true that workers are coming back on the job much more quickly than economists initially predicted, and it’s true that tens of millions of Americans are still out of work. But together, it doesn’t make for a very clean political message — which is why Republicans and Democrats can each look at this jobs report and see good news for their candidate and bad news for their opponent.
“Republicans are looking at the changes month-to-month and saying, “We’re creating millions of jobs every month; we’re getting the economy back on track,’” said Andrew Chamberlain, chief economist at the job search site Glassdoor. “And you have people on the left saying: ‘There are still millions of Americans out of work and we had Depression-level changes in employment in April, May and June.’” Partisanship being a helluva drug, there are ample opportunities for both sides to spin this most recent jobs report in whatever direction benefits them most, potentially rendering any historical comparisons irrelevant.
Making things even more difficult to interpret, unemployment is just one of many factors that would be considered when assessing the country’s economic situation heading into the election.
In our election forecast model, payroll jobs are included as part of the economic picture that contributes to the overall prediction. But we also incorporate a number of other economic indicators, and right now, some of those indicators are moving in opposite directions.
That’s because this is a really weird recession: Millions of people are out of work, but savings and income remained elevated for months, at least in part because of the federal supplement to people’s unemployment checks. Now that’s gone, but spending is still up a lot even though income has fallen a bit. And don’t even talk to us about the stock market, which rallied this summer despite the other economic turmoil.
So from the perspective of the election model, the economic situation has improved since June and we’re basically at an average economy — even though jobs are still quite bad in a historical sense.
The last wrinkle is that the picture could still change between now and Election Day, according to Nick Bunker, the director of economic research for North America at the Indeed Hiring Lab, a research institute connected to the job-search site Indeed. This year, the October jobs report will be released three days after the election. (To be clear: the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the federal agency that produces the jobs report, did not do this on purpose.) “In a normal year, you wouldn’t expect the economy to change all that dramatically over the span of a month and a half,” Bunker said. But over the next five weeks, anything is possible. And given that some voters are already casting ballots, any changes in October would mean that Americans who vote early could be making their choice for president in a fairly different economic reality than those who vote on Nov. 3.
All of this means that it’s not clear if the jobs report will help — or hurt — either candidate. In the end, it might just be a wash. After all, very few voters are undecided. And this report might, more than anything else, just be a reminder of why it’s possible for Republicans and Democrats to see the economy in totally different ways.


fivethirthyeight--2020-10-02--How Will Trump’s Positive COVID-19 Test Affect The Election?

Welcome to an emergency edition of FiveThirtyEight ’ s politics chat .
The transcript below has been lightly edited , and updated with the news that Joe Biden has tested negative for the coronavirus .
sarah ( Sarah Frostenson , politics editor ) : Very early Friday morning , President Trump tweeted that he and First Lady Melania Trump had tested positive for COVID-19 .
That news came just after reports on Thursday that White House senior advisor Hope Hicks had tested positive .
There ’ s a lot we still don ’ t know at this point , including @ @ @ @ @ @ @ or the severity of the president ’ s symptoms , but with about a month until Election Day , this is … an October surprise , to say the least .
Let ’ s start with one of the big questions : What does this mean for the election ?
natesilver ( Nate Silver , editor in chief ) : So for some reason I ’ m finding it hard to think through the electoral implications this morning .
Maybe I need even more coffee .
My thoughts right now are mostly some @ @ @ @ @ @ @ F*CK does this happen ?
Shouldn ’ t everybody in the president ’ s orbit have been tested constantly ?
• And , OF COURSE this happened because 2020 and because the president clearly was not taking that many precautions perry ( Perry Bacon Jr. , senior writer ) : My overall answer is , “ I have no idea how this affects the election.
” This is truly unprecedented , as far as I know , in American elections — the president getting a serious virus weeks before the election .
I @ @ @ @ @ @ @ abroad who has gotten a virus like this weeks before the election either ( though I am not an expert on elections outside of the United States ) .
So while I have some general thoughts , I wanted to lay that out first .
I truly have no idea what to expect , how voters will react to Trump ’ s positive test , how the media will cover it or how other candidates will react .
ameliatd ( Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux , senior writer ) : Yeah — it ’ s such @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on what happens next .
Does Trump get really sick ?
Does he stay mostly asymptomatic ?
How far did the virus spread in the White House ?
All questions we can ’ t answer right now , of course .
But hugely important for how people respond .
natesilver : Yeah .
We ’ re going to be saying “ I don ’ t know ” a lot in this chat .
I don ’ t think there ’ s anything wrong with thinking through the electoral implications .
There ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of people have already voted .
So Americans are wrestling with this stuff .
We just don ’ t have a lot of good answers .
ameliatd : And , of course , there ’ s an open question about whether Joe Biden will test positive , after he and Trump were at the debate together on Tuesday .
[ Editor ’ s note : Biden tested negative for the coronavirus after the conclusion of this chat . ]
natesilver : Right , and one thing I ’ m not sure people realize @ @ @ @ @ @ @ between exposure and a positive test .
So we won ’ t know for sure which people have or don ’ t have COVID-19 for a bit here .
ameliatd : In the meantime , though , this does mean that Trump can ’ t campaign for at a while , right ?
And what about the debates , which were supposed to be on Oct. 15 and 22 ?
Do those still happen ?
How much does it matter if Trump can ’ t campaign , though ?
This was already a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ not sure his rallies were going to put him over the edge .
ameliatd : Everyone wanted that automatic mute last time !
natesilver : At a very basic , square-one level , COVID-19 is a huge liability for the president , and so placing more focus on COVID-19 probably isn ’ t great for him .
But I don ’ t know how useful that is as a prior .
Could Trump getting COVID-19 change his messaging around the virus and pandemic ?
Maybe .
But this is Donald Trump we ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ not inclined to be overly disciplined or deferential to scientists , etc .
He ’ s pretty unpredictable , and we don ’ t yet know a lot about how serious his symptoms are .
And this is a bad disease that can have cognitive effects in addition to physical ones .
Also in terms of very , basic , non-debatable priors : the president ’ s re-election bid was in DEEP trouble going into this , at least by conventional measures .
And the smattering of post-debate polls we ’ d gotten @ @ @ @ @ @ @ So just worth keeping that in mind .
sarah : Absolutely .
But on the question of how this happened … The Trump campaign has not taken precautions seriously .
They ’ ve continued to hold large , in-person events .
And they ’ ve even mocked the Biden campaign for wearing masks .
Is one possible scenario from this that Americans take the coronavirus more seriously ?
Views on COVID-19 and Trump ’ s response to it are polarized by party , but how could Trump ’ s positive test change public @ @ @ @ @ @ @ happens with public opinion really depends on how sick Trump gets .
As I wrote over the summer , a big part of the reason Republicans are not as into COVID-19 restrictions is that they are much , much less likely to view the virus as a personal health threat to them .
And research has indicated that Trump downplaying the virus is probably a significant driver of that .
So I could see this playing out at least two ways … • Trump gets moderately or very sick and this does prompt @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , this actually is serious and if it could happen to Trump it could happen to me ” ; • Trump remains mostly asymptomatic and it bolsters the idea that this is actually not such a big deal .
perry : So , writing this on Friday morning , here ’ s what I expect … The overwhelming majority of people , even those who are older , don ’ t die from COVID-19 .
So the most likely outcome is that Trump and some of his staffers have COVID-19 , stay somewhat @ @ @ @ @ @ @ then Trump returns to campaigning for reelection ( I am not sure if he has the big rallies , but I wouldn ’ t rule that out . )
I am not even sure the next two debates have to be canceled — particularly the Oct 22 one .
And basically nothing has shaken Trump ’ s job approval ratings or really the race overall .
I don ’ t really expect this to shift things either .
The president testing positive for COVID-19 is obviously hugely significant , but it ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ was not taking the virus seriously enough .
Now , we have a much more obvious manifestation of that fact , but nothing is really different .
Biden may not be able to attack Trump as bluntly on COVID now , for decorum reasons , but this positive test reinforces Biden ’ s message that Trump has let this crisis get out of hand .
So this matters , but I ’ m not sure it matters electorally in terms of shifting a lot of people ’ s votes .
ameliatd : I @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the line now , but is it possible that battling and surviving COVID-19 could actually make Trump more popular in some corners ?
Especially if he doesn ’ t get very sick ?
natesilver : Amelia , I ’ m not sure I really buy that .
I mean , somehow if it made the president into a more empathetic person , maybe , I suppose ?
But ( i ) I ’ m not sure that ’ s how he ’ s likely to react as opposed to sending 6,000 tweets about @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ; and ( ii ) he ’ s been trying to project a lot of macho-ness/dominance and to portray Biden as old and feeble and I ’ m not sure how contracting a serious disease himself fits into that .
ameliatd : Well , but if he contracts a serious disease and doesn ’ t get very sick and recovers fairly quickly — that certainly doesn ’ t seem as bad for him .
natesilver : I guess if he recovers in a couple of weeks , which is still what happens for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ say he kicked COVID ’ s ass and/or it wasn ’ t that serious .
But I don ’ t think that necessarily affects anything electorally .
ameliatd : So , is the main impact potentially less about politics and more about the way Americans think about the virus ?
Either prompting Republicans to take it more seriously or reinforcing their sense that this really isn ’ t a big deal ?
There was research back in March indicating that COVID-19 spreading at CPAC helped drive a brief moment when Republicans and Democrats @ @ @ @ @ @ @ seriousness of the virus .
perry : So I don ’ t buy this idea that Trump will get COVID-19 , be fine and then start calling it “ Fake News.
” We just learned Ronna McDaneil , the RNC chair , has also tested positive .
So has Hope Hicks , a top Trump adviser .
[ Editor ’ s note : Sen. Mike Lee of Utah has since announced that he has also tested positive . ]
I think enough people in Trump ’ s circle may have the virus that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , basically forcing him to as well .
natesilver : This is one sort of message we might hear , I guess : sarah : But this question of whether it will change how seriously people perceive the coronavirus is an interesting one .
Americans overall , as we saw in our debate polling with Ipsos , listed the coronavirus as their No .
1 issue : However , among potential Trump supporters a much smaller share ( 15.5 percent ) said the coronavirus was their most important issue , many more were @ @ @ @ @ @ @ you could argue that the economy is probably linked to coronavirus among Trump supporters , but this could be a moment that has public health repercussions , yes ?
ameliatd : Well , there was a jobs report this morning — one that I suspect is now going to get a LOT less attention .
It was kinda positive — if you can consider the unemployment rate falling just under 8 percent positive .
perry : I think there could be a bunch of real , important health outcomes from this … • @ @ @ @ @ @ @ bit more hesitant to lift COVID restrictions ; • Democratic mayors and governors may cite Trump ’ s positive test as part of their messaging on keeping restrictions in place ; • Republican voters may become a bit less dismissive of COVID , in part because GOP elites take it more seriously ; • Overall , this news could be important and have a positive impact in terms of Americans taking the virus more seriously .
ameliatd : Yeah , I ’ m also wondering if this will change the way Republican governors @ @ @ @ @ @ @ completely lifted in some states .
Although I do think it ’ s important to note that the vast majority of Americans say they ’ ve been complying with public health guidelines like mask-wearing , even if Republicans are much less likely to agree with government restrictions on businesses .
perry : To take an example : Georgia Gov .
Brian Kemp , a Republican , is never going to give a press conference and say something like , “ I was downplaying COVID-19 but then Trump got it and it reinforced how @ @ @ @ @ @ @ I think that will never happen ?
natesilver : I suppose I ’ m skeptical that this will necessarily change all that much .
As you can see from the Kelly Loeffler tweet above , there are lots of partisan responses that don ’ t necessarily involve taking the disease more seriously per se .
Now , if Trump said something like what Perry just laid out , i.e .
“ I wasn ’ t taking this seriously enough , and I now understand the error of my ways… ” then OK !
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ I ’ m not sure that ’ s necessarily the most likely outcome .
ameliatd : But for regular people , I think a lot of this is about the gut-level fear that this might happen to them .
Trump downplaying it , not wearing a mask , and not getting sick almost certainly helped reinforce the feeling among Republicans that it ’ s not a big deal .
So I also think the way this is presented in conservative media , how visible Trump ’ s illness is — all of that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s true that the partisan response is pretty baked in at this point .
But if Trump gets really sick , I could see that changing .
Of course , if Republican governors start being more cautious with restrictions again and more people lose their jobs — that raises questions for whether a new stimulus package might actually get off the ground , too .
I remain skeptical that will happen !
But maybe there ’ s more pressure to break the stalemate in Congress ?
sarah : There are a number @ @ @ @ @ @ @ one , of course , is that Trump can ’ t campaign — not to mention if Vice President Mike Pence has to step in .
What should we be looking for as this story develops ?
ameliatd : Trump ’ s symptoms are obviously a big one .
And if they ’ re serious , there might be calls to take him off the ballot .
natesilver : Right , part of what makes this tough to predict — and I ’ m not against prediction !
— is that we don @ @ @ @ @ @ @ have a mild or severe case , how many people in his orbit are also infected , etc .
perry : Assuming Trump recovers , what does his campaign look like on Oct. 16 ?
Is he still holding big rallies ?
Is he wearing a mask ?
Are his staffers ?
Does the Oct. 22 debate take place , and in person ?
What about the Oct. 15 one ?
Is he further dismissing the virus because he survived it ?
natesilver : Let ’ s also keep in mind that the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ some people .
It can take months , or longer — long-term COVID symptoms are scary .

Welcome to an emergency edition of FiveThirtyEight’s politics chat. The transcript below has been lightly edited, and updated with the news that Joe Biden has tested negative for the coronavirus.
sarah (Sarah Frostenson, politics editor): Very early Friday morning, President Trump tweeted that he and First Lady Melania Trump had tested positive for COVID-19. That news came just after reports on Thursday that White House senior advisor Hope Hicks had tested positive.
There’s a lot we still don’t know at this point, including the extent of White House staff affected or the severity of the president’s symptoms, but with about a month until Election Day, this is … an October surprise, to say the least.
Let’s start with one of the big questions: What does this mean for the election?
natesilver (Nate Silver, editor in chief): So for some reason I’m finding it hard to think through the electoral implications this morning. Maybe I need even more coffee. My thoughts right now are mostly some combination of:
Seriously how the F*CK does this happen? Shouldn’t everybody in the president’s orbit have been tested constantly? And, OF COURSE this happened because 2020 and because the president clearly was not taking that many precautions
perry (Perry Bacon Jr., senior writer): My overall answer is, “I have no idea how this affects the election.” This is truly unprecedented, as far as I know, in American elections — the president getting a serious virus weeks before the election. I can’t think of any leader abroad who has gotten a virus like this weeks before the election either (though I am not an expert on elections outside of the United States).
So while I have some general thoughts, I wanted to lay that out first. I truly have no idea what to expect, how voters will react to Trump’s positive test, how the media will cover it or how other candidates will react.
I.
Don’t.
Know.
ameliatd (Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux, senior writer): Yeah — it’s such a black box and honestly so dependent on what happens next. Does Trump get really sick? Does he stay mostly asymptomatic? How far did the virus spread in the White House? All questions we can’t answer right now, of course. But hugely important for how people respond.
natesilver: Yeah. We’re going to be saying “I don’t know” a lot in this chat. I don’t think there’s anything wrong with thinking through the electoral implications. There’s an election happening literally NOW — millions of people have already voted. So Americans are wrestling with this stuff. We just don’t have a lot of good answers.
ameliatd: And, of course, there’s an open question about whether Joe Biden will test positive, after he and Trump were at the debate together on Tuesday. [Editor’s note: Biden tested negative for the coronavirus after the conclusion of this chat.]
natesilver: Right, and one thing I’m not sure people realize is that there can be several days between exposure and a positive test. So we won’t know for sure which people have or don’t have COVID-19 for a bit here.
ameliatd: In the meantime, though, this does mean that Trump can’t campaign for at a while, right? And what about the debates, which were supposed to be on Oct. 15 and 22? Do those still happen?
How much does it matter if Trump can’t campaign, though? This was already a deeply bizarre year and I’m not sure his rallies were going to put him over the edge.
natesilver: Zoom debates?
ameliatd: Everyone wanted that automatic mute last time!
natesilver: At a very basic, square-one level, COVID-19 is a huge liability for the president, and so placing more focus on COVID-19 probably isn’t great for him. But I don’t know how useful that is as a prior. Could Trump getting COVID-19 change his messaging around the virus and pandemic? Maybe. But this is Donald Trump we’re talking about. He’s not inclined to be overly disciplined or deferential to scientists, etc. He’s pretty unpredictable, and we don’t yet know a lot about how serious his symptoms are. And this is a bad disease that can have cognitive effects in addition to physical ones.
Also in terms of very, basic, non-debatable priors: the president’s re-election bid was in DEEP trouble going into this, at least by conventional measures. And the smattering of post-debate polls we’d gotten had been particularly bad for him. So just worth keeping that in mind.
sarah: Absolutely. But on the question of how this happened … The Trump campaign has not taken precautions seriously. They’ve continued to hold large, in-person events. And they’ve even mocked the Biden campaign for wearing masks.
Is one possible scenario from this that Americans take the coronavirus more seriously? Views on COVID-19 and Trump’s response to it are polarized by party, but how could Trump’s positive test change public opinion?
ameliatd: I think what happens with public opinion really depends on how sick Trump gets. As I wrote over the summer, a big part of the reason Republicans are not as into COVID-19 restrictions is that they are much, much less likely to view the virus as a personal health threat to them.
And research has indicated that Trump downplaying the virus is probably a significant driver of that. So I could see this playing out at least two ways …
Trump gets moderately or very sick and this does prompt Republicans to think, “Oh geez, this actually is serious and if it could happen to Trump it could happen to me”; Trump remains mostly asymptomatic and it bolsters the idea that this is actually not such a big deal.
perry: So, writing this on Friday morning, here’s what I expect …
The overwhelming majority of people, even those who are older, don’t die from COVID-19. So the most likely outcome is that Trump and some of his staffers have COVID-19, stay somewhat distanced from everyone for two weeks and then Trump returns to campaigning for reelection (I am not sure if he has the big rallies, but I wouldn’t rule that out.) I am not even sure the next two debates have to be canceled — particularly the Oct 22 one. And basically nothing has shaken Trump’s job approval ratings or really the race overall. I don’t really expect this to shift things either.
The president testing positive for COVID-19 is obviously hugely significant, but it’s not revelatory. We already knew Trump was not taking the virus seriously enough. Now, we have a much more obvious manifestation of that fact, but nothing is really different. Biden may not be able to attack Trump as bluntly on COVID now, for decorum reasons, but this positive test reinforces Biden’s message that Trump has let this crisis get out of hand. So this matters, but I’m not sure it matters electorally in terms of shifting a lot of people’s votes.
ameliatd: I know we’re thinking way down the line now, but is it possible that battling and surviving COVID-19 could actually make Trump more popular in some corners? Especially if he doesn’t get very sick?
natesilver: Amelia, I’m not sure I really buy that. I mean, somehow if it made the president into a more empathetic person, maybe, I suppose? But (i) I’m not sure that’s how he’s likely to react as opposed to sending 6,000 tweets about the “China Virus” or something; and (ii) he’s been trying to project a lot of macho-ness/dominance and to portray Biden as old and feeble and I’m not sure how contracting a serious disease himself fits into that.
ameliatd: Well, but if he contracts a serious disease and doesn’t get very sick and recovers fairly quickly — that certainly doesn’t seem as bad for him.
natesilver: I guess if he recovers in a couple of weeks, which is still what happens for most people, maybe he’ll say he kicked COVID’s ass and/or it wasn’t that serious. But I don’t think that necessarily affects anything electorally.
ameliatd: So, is the main impact potentially less about politics and more about the way Americans think about the virus? Either prompting Republicans to take it more seriously or reinforcing their sense that this really isn’t a big deal?
There was research back in March indicating that COVID-19 spreading at CPAC helped drive a brief moment when Republicans and Democrats were on the same page about the seriousness of the virus.
perry: So I don’t buy this idea that Trump will get COVID-19, be fine and then start calling it “Fake News.” We just learned Ronna McDaneil, the RNC chair, has also tested positive. So has Hope Hicks, a top Trump adviser. [Editor’s note: Sen. Mike Lee of Utah has since announced that he has also tested positive.] I think enough people in Trump’s circle may have the virus that THOSE PEOPLE start taking this more seriously, basically forcing him to as well.
natesilver: This is one sort of message we might hear, I guess:
Remember: China gave this virus to our President @realDonaldTrump and First Lady @FLOTUS. WE MUST HOLD THEM ACCOUNTABLE. — Kelly Loeffler (@KLoeffler) October 2, 2020
sarah: But this question of whether it will change how seriously people perceive the coronavirus is an interesting one. Americans overall, as we saw in our debate polling with Ipsos, listed the coronavirus as their No. 1 issue:
COVID-19 and the economy are Americans’ top two issues Share of respondents who named each issue as the top one facing the U.S., according to a FiveThirtyEight/Ipsos poll issue share of all Respondents COVID-19 31.7% – The economy 21.6 – Health care 7.9 – Racial inequality 7.4 – Climate change 5.2 – Violent crime 4.8 – The Supreme Court 4.5 – Economic inequality 3.0 – Immigration 2.8 – Education 2.6 – Abortion 2.3 – Gun policy 1.9 – Other 1.6 – Data comes from polling done by Ipsos for FiveThirtyEight, using Ipsos’s KnowledgePanel, a probability-based online panel that is recruited to be representative of the U.S. population. The poll was conducted Sept. 21-28 among a general population sample of adults, with 3,133 respondents and a margin of error of +/- 1.9 percentage points.
However, among potential Trump supporters a much smaller share (15.5 percent) said the coronavirus was their most important issue, many more were concerned about the economy:
Potential Trump voters care most about the economy Among respondents who were more likely to vote for Trump than Biden, share who named each issue as the top one facing the U.S., according to a FiveThirtyEight/Ipsos poll issue share of trump supporters The economy 38.4% – COVID-19 15.5 – Violent crime 9.5 – The Supreme Court 6.2 – Abortion 5.4 – Health care 4.9 – Immigration 4.8 – Education 3.9 – Gun policy 3.4 – Other 2.4 – Racial inequality 1.8 – Economic inequality 1.6 – Climate change 0.5 – Respondents were asked to rate how likely they were to vote for each candidate on a scale of 0-10. Respondents were deemed more likely to vote for whichever candidate they gave a higher score. Respondents who gave both candidates the same score are not included. Data comes from polling done by Ipsos for FiveThirtyEight, using Ipsos’s KnowledgePanel, a probability-based online panel that is recruited to be representative of the U.S. population. The poll was conducted Sept. 21-28 among a general population sample of adults, with 3,133 respondents and a margin of error of +/- 1.9 percentage points.
I think you could argue that the economy is probably linked to coronavirus among Trump supporters, but this could be a moment that has public health repercussions, yes?
ameliatd: Well, there was a jobs report this morning — one that I suspect is now going to get a LOT less attention. It was kinda positive — if you can consider the unemployment rate falling just under 8 percent positive.
perry: I think there could be a bunch of real, important health outcomes from this …
GOP governors and mayors may be a bit more hesitant to lift COVID restrictions; Democratic mayors and governors may cite Trump’s positive test as part of their messaging on keeping restrictions in place; Republican voters may become a bit less dismissive of COVID, in part because GOP elites take it more seriously; Overall, this news could be important and have a positive impact in terms of Americans taking the virus more seriously.
ameliatd: Yeah, I’m also wondering if this will change the way Republican governors approach restrictions, which are all but completely lifted in some states.
Although I do think it’s important to note that the vast majority of Americans say they’ve been complying with public health guidelines like mask-wearing, even if Republicans are much less likely to agree with government restrictions on businesses.
perry: To take an example: Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp, a Republican, is never going to give a press conference and say something like, “I was downplaying COVID-19 but then Trump got it and it reinforced how serious this was.” At least, I think that will never happen?
natesilver: I suppose I’m skeptical that this will necessarily change all that much. As you can see from the Kelly Loeffler tweet above, there are lots of partisan responses that don’t necessarily involve taking the disease more seriously per se.
Now, if Trump said something like what Perry just laid out, i.e. “I wasn’t taking this seriously enough, and I now understand the error of my ways…” then OK! That could make a difference! But I’m not sure that’s necessarily the most likely outcome.
ameliatd: But for regular people, I think a lot of this is about the gut-level fear that this might happen to them. Trump downplaying it, not wearing a mask, and not getting sick almost certainly helped reinforce the feeling among Republicans that it’s not a big deal. So I also think the way this is presented in conservative media, how visible Trump’s illness is — all of that matters for how people respond.
It’s true that the partisan response is pretty baked in at this point. But if Trump gets really sick, I could see that changing. Of course, if Republican governors start being more cautious with restrictions again and more people lose their jobs — that raises questions for whether a new stimulus package might actually get off the ground, too. I remain skeptical that will happen! But maybe there’s more pressure to break the stalemate in Congress?
sarah: There are a number of possibilities here, the most pressing one, of course, is that Trump can’t campaign — not to mention if Vice President Mike Pence has to step in. What should we be looking for as this story develops?
ameliatd: Trump’s symptoms are obviously a big one. And if they’re serious, there might be calls to take him off the ballot.
natesilver: Right, part of what makes this tough to predict — and I’m not against prediction! — is that we don’t yet know if Trump will have a mild or severe case, how many people in his orbit are also infected, etc.
perry: Assuming Trump recovers, what does his campaign look like on Oct. 16? Is he still holding big rallies? Is he wearing a mask? Are his staffers? Does the Oct. 22 debate take place, and in person? What about the Oct. 15 one? Is he further dismissing the virus because he survived it?
natesilver: Let’s also keep in mind that the recovery process isn’t quick for some people. It can take months, or longer — long-term COVID symptoms are scary.