fivethirthyeight--2020-08-13--The Suns Are On Fire, The Sixers Are Reeling, And Other Lessons From The NBA Bubble

chris.herring ( Chris Herring , senior sportswriter ) : It ’ s been a minute since we last chatted about the NBA at length , and for good reason : The whole world changed , calling into question whether the season could even be resumed at one point .
But now the restart is in full swing — with no virus cases detected — and the playoffs are almost here .
The most drama-filled storyline to this point has been the battle for the eighth and ninth spots out West .
I think it was always fair to expect Damian @ @ @ @ @ @ @ into the conversation .
But did any of us see the Suns making this 7-0 run since the restart ?
What ’ s gotten into them ?
dubin ( Jared Dubin , FiveThirtyEight contributor ) : I don ’ t want to say that Devin Booker is on fire because of the whole fire-sun connection , but Devin Booker is on fire .
sara.ziegler ( Sara Ziegler , sports editor ) : With this restart record , the Suns get all the 🔥 jokes they want .
dre.waters ( Andres Waters , FiveThirtyEight @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a no-go .
Of course , Phoenix is still only at 12 percent to make the playoffs , according to our model , so the jokes might stop in a hurry .
dre.waters : But Booker has been playing out of his mind , and the Suns have gotten more from their role players than I think most people expected .
chris.herring : I think I ’ ve been really impressed with how Phoenix has defended .
They were just 19th before the restart , but they rank fourth since returning to play @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
They need a little help still .
But I didn ’ t even think they were worthy of making the trip to Orlando before this .
• The new starting lineup with Cameron Johnson is crushing teams ( plus-12.4 points per 100 possessions ) .
• Cameron Payne has solidified their backup point guard spot , which was a disaster pre-hiatus .
During the regular season , they were 10.3 points worse per 100 possessions with Ricky Rubio on the bench .
During the restart , they ’ ve been 17.9 points @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in the game , and they ’ ve still been good with him in the game !
chris.herring : Yeah — there have been times over the years where I didn ’ t even understand why Cam Payne was in the league .
He ’ s shot it really well .
And Cam Johnson has been everywhere for them .
At a minimum , even if they don ’ t make the play-in game , this would all seem to be encouraging for them to start next season .
dubin : The combination @ @ @ @ @ @ @ slots is so tough to deal with defensively .
And Deandre Ayton looks like he took another mini-leap on that end .
I remember when he was sold pre-draft as a potential worst-defender-in-the-league type , and I ’ d be surprised if he wasn ’ t average or better for the majority of his career now .
sara.ziegler : They ’ ve got to be happy with how the bubble has gone for them , even if they don ’ t make the actual playoffs .
They started the season strong , too @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
dre.waters : And they started strong even without Ayton , which I think is important to note .
Their young core really seems to be devolving well .
And if Bridges can continue to score like he has the past two games , they might be able to get into the play-in .
dubin : I do wonder if this performance might hurt them next year .
Whether they finish 8-0 or 7-1 , there are going to be “ compete for the playoffs ” expectations , and I ’ m not @ @ @ @ @ @ @ West has too many good teams .
chris.herring : So one thing I think may be getting lost in all this , whether the last team in ends up being Phoenix , Portland , San Antonio — or even if Memphis holds on somehow — is that it ’ s made for fantastic drama .
I guess my question is : Has this experience bolstered the case for the NBA to adopt a play-in scenario going forward ?
dubin : In theory , yes , but in practice , I feel like it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ because of travel , arena availability and TV commitments .
It ’ s much easier in the bubble , obviously .
dre.waters : I would hope they consider it , it makes a lot of the late-season games that wouldn ’ t normally matter worth watching .
sara.ziegler : It does say something , though , about how boring the push to the regular season usually is .
( Not always , obviously . )
I hate forced drama most of the time , but this has been so fun to watch .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ something to be said for the quality of the games and the teams , too .
I didn ’ t really factor that part of it in initially .
sara.ziegler : And it makes me think that if the in-season tournament under consideration by the league were tied to one of the last playoff spots , that might be fun .
dubin : How much of the entertainment factor is attributable to not having sports to watch for so long , and how much is attributable to defenses ( somewhat surprisingly ) being @ @ @ @ @ @ @ into the 120s and 130s ?
chris.herring : Yeah .
Had it been offenses struggling instead of defenses , it would have been tougher to watch .
Moving on to something I ’ m personally interested in : There are probably 61 reasons that LeBron James and the Lakers would rather face anyone — be it Phoenix , Memphis or even San Antonio — than Dame and the Blazers in a first-round matchup .
The Lakers haven ’ t been all that impressive since the restart , ranking dead last in offense .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ in that last spot realistically be able to push them in a playoff round ?
dubin : I have serious doubts about the Blazers challenging anybody for anything if they continue allowing ( approx . )
6091845621 points per 100 possessions on defense .
dre.waters : LOL , Jared really does have a point though .
Dame is scoring left and right , but somehow they always seem to be in an uphill battle chris.herring : That ’ s fair : The Lakers have been trash on offense — there are moments where @ @ @ @ @ @ @ as if he wants to save his legs , as opposed to driving to the basket .
And they ’ re obviously incorporating Dion Waiters and J.R. Smith .
But L.A. ’ s defense has still been relatively fine .
So I certainly understand thinking that Portland may not be able to get enough stops to be overly competitive .
dubin : The Lakers aren ’ t going to shut down Dame because nobody can do that , but they do have two of the better wing-on-guard defenders in the league in Danny @ @ @ @ @ @ @ make things slightly more difficult for him .
Plus , this CJ McCollum back injury sounds … not great .
chris.herring : Yeah !
That was so odd when that came across the timeline in such a casual way .
We were all confused .
dre.waters : I think the question with CJ is how long could he be out .
Because without him , I don ’ t know how competitive a Lakers/Blazers matchup is .
chris.herring : Honestly , he looked terribly out of rhythm on Tuesday .
When the word @ @ @ @ @ @ @ actually made a ton of sense .
Let ’ s move to the East for at least a minute here : I can ’ t help but think that the Sixers — maybe the absolute wackiest team in this wacky season we ’ ve observed — are again in trouble .
Ben Simmons is going to miss at least several weeks after having surgery on his knee .
Embiid hurt his ankle but is apparently fine , and he just made his return on Wednesday .
They ’ re going to face the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is it that Philly , a club many saw as a contender or perhaps even favorite in the East , may not get to the second round ?
dubin : I feel like it ’ s pretty likely at this point .
Boston was the better team to begin with , and Philly now has one fewer perimeter defender to deal with Kemba Walker , Jaylen Brown , Jayson Tatum and Gordon Hayward .
sara.ziegler : Our model has been higher on the Sixers than their record might have warranted for a lot @ @ @ @ @ @ @ their immense talent .
But losing Simmons does all kinds of damage to that .
dre.waters : I don ’ t see the Sixers making it to the second round .
Boston is just a better team to me this year .
Even before the bubble , it was always a question of which 76ers you ’ re going to get today .
Now with Embiid ’ s health , which literally changes by the minute … it ’ s hard to imagine a situation where they find a way past the Celtics @ @ @ @ @ @ @ biggest concern for Philly would be its defense without Simmons .
dubin : The most likely path for them to make it out of the first round probably involves Embiid playing 40ish minutes a night , and I feel like that ’ s not within the realm of reasonable possibilities given his health and conditioning .
chris.herring : Would be slightly intrigued to see if not having Simmons frees up the Sixers ’ offense a bit more in a playoff setting .
But the defense , sans Simmons , probably makes it too @ @ @ @ @ @ @ even if you do take out Boston , it seems like it would have been a bloodbath to do it , and they probably wouldn ’ t have much left for Toronto in Round 2 .
Based on what we ’ ve seen in the bubble thus far , is there a dark horse/sleeper that we think can come out of this ?
Either because of what the time off allowed in terms of health , or because of the lack of home-court advantage ?
Who , if anyone , are we looking @ @ @ @ @ @ @ don ’ t know that I ’ m necessarily looking at them differently , but for me I think it ’ s Houston .
James Harden can win any game/series on his own , the Rockets ’ style introduces a degree of variance nobody else can match , and they ’ re just so weird to play against .
There ’ s nobody else like them , so you can ’ t really get a tune-up until you ’ re on the court against them .
They also got the second-largest title odds @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in the shift from regular playoffs to neutral-site .
( First was the Sixers . )
sara.ziegler : LOL , the model didn ’ t know what would happen to Simmons !
chris.herring : They are truly something .
dre.waters : I was going to say Houston too .
To add to that I think Eric Gordon ’ s return is big for them .
sara.ziegler : If Houston ’ s short-ball ( NOT small-ball ) system pays off , that would be an incredible story .
dubin : I would just love @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a title .
I ’ d be so happy for him .
chris.herring : I guess I was mostly curious about what this restart would do for a team like Toronto .
The Raptors were banged up ALL year .
They ’ ve got guys who can ’ t/won ’ t qualify for sixth man stuff because they ended up being used as starters out of necessity , with all their injuries .
And while it ’ s easy to assume that the Raps would be better with a full deck , I @ @ @ @ @ @ @ with not having had their full rotation available all year , would create some questions for them — ones that could either help or hurt them , depending on how things played out .
Their defense , save for the game against Boston , has been unreal .
sara.ziegler : I don ’ t think we ’ re allowed to sleep on the Raptors ever again after last season , so maybe they ’ re not exactly a dark horse .
But they have looked so strong so far .
chris.herring : Not @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , dark horse !
chris.herring : At least we thought it did going into the season !
dubin : I don ’ t want to say too much about their defense for fear of spoiling the story that I took a break from writing to do this chat .
sara.ziegler : That ’ s fair , Jared .
But I will say that they ’ re the only team with a defensive rating approaching 100 in the bubble — at 101.8 after Wednesday night ’ s game .
chris.herring : They ’ re @ @ @ @ @ @ @ number .
The Rockets are the next best at 106.4. dubin : They have the advantage of being able to play essentially any style because of the versatility and depth they have , as well as Nick Nurse ’ s creativity and the collective basketball intelligence on the team .
Having Kyle Lowry , Serge Ibaka and Marc Gasol makes things pretty fun , and then the younger guys are all different combinations of feisty , strong , rangy and other good defense-y sounding words I ’ m not gon na think of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ with Pascal Siakam and OG Anunoby as the front line , or big with Gasol-Ibaka-Siakam .
They can mix and match Lowry , Norman Powell , Fred VanVleet , even Terence Davis .
There ’ s just so much to work with .
chris.herring : Part of me is hoping they and the Bucks meet again this postseason .
Giannis Antetokounmpo definitely wants revenge , and is apparently head-butting people now !
I think it would be fun to see them go at it .
But without Kawhi , I want to see @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
sara.ziegler : I just want to get the playoffs started !
I ’ m so greedy — having basketball back isn ’ t enough for me .
chris.herring : Just a few more days , and will have them .
Maybe I ’ ll try to submit a video so I can be a virtual fan and feel closer to the action .

The Suns Are On Fire, The Sixers Are Reeling, And Other Lessons From The NBA Bubble
chris.herring (Chris Herring, senior sportswriter): It’s been a minute since we last chatted about the NBA at length, and for good reason: The whole world changed, calling into question whether the season could even be resumed at one point. But now the restart is in full swing — with no virus cases detected — and the playoffs are almost here.
The most drama-filled storyline to this point has been the battle for the eighth and ninth spots out West. I think it was always fair to expect Damian Lillard and Portland to fight their way into the conversation. But did any of us see the Suns making this 7-0 run since the restart? What’s gotten into them?
dubin (Jared Dubin, FiveThirtyEight contributor): I don’t want to say that Devin Booker is on fire because of the whole fire-sun connection, but Devin Booker is on fire.
sara.ziegler (Sara Ziegler, sports editor): With this restart record, the Suns get all the 🔥 jokes they want.
dre.waters (Andres Waters, FiveThirtyEight contributor): The jokes are still a no-go.
sara.ziegler: LOL
Of course, Phoenix is still only at 12 percent to make the playoffs, according to our model, so the jokes might stop in a hurry.
dre.waters: But Booker has been playing out of his mind, and the Suns have gotten more from their role players than I think most people expected.
chris.herring: I think I’ve been really impressed with how Phoenix has defended. They were just 19th before the restart, but they rank fourth since returning to play. And Mikal Bridges has been fantastic.
They need a little help still. But I didn’t even think they were worthy of making the trip to Orlando before this.
dubin: I think it’s two things:
The new starting lineup with Cameron Johnson is crushing teams (plus-12.4 points per 100 possessions). Cameron Payne has solidified their backup point guard spot, which was a disaster pre-hiatus. During the regular season, they were 10.3 points worse per 100 possessions with Ricky Rubio on the bench. During the restart, they’ve been 17.9 points better with Rubio on the bench than in the game, and they’ve still been good with him in the game!
chris.herring: Yeah — there have been times over the years where I didn’t even understand why Cam Payne was in the league. He’s shot it really well. And Cam Johnson has been everywhere for them.
At a minimum, even if they don’t make the play-in game, this would all seem to be encouraging for them to start next season.
dubin: The combination of Bridges and Johnson at the forward slots is so tough to deal with defensively. And Deandre Ayton looks like he took another mini-leap on that end. I remember when he was sold pre-draft as a potential worst-defender-in-the-league type, and I’d be surprised if he wasn’t average or better for the majority of his career now.
sara.ziegler: They’ve got to be happy with how the bubble has gone for them, even if they don’t make the actual playoffs. They started the season strong, too, as Chris reminded me last week.
dre.waters: And they started strong even without Ayton, which I think is important to note.
Their young core really seems to be devolving well. And if Bridges can continue to score like he has the past two games, they might be able to get into the play-in.
dubin: I do wonder if this performance might hurt them next year. Whether they finish 8-0 or 7-1, there are going to be “compete for the playoffs” expectations, and I’m not sure they can reach them. The West has too many good teams.
chris.herring: So one thing I think may be getting lost in all this, whether the last team in ends up being Phoenix, Portland, San Antonio — or even if Memphis holds on somehow — is that it’s made for fantastic drama.
I guess my question is: Has this experience bolstered the case for the NBA to adopt a play-in scenario going forward?
sara.ziegler: Ooooooh, interesting.
dubin: In theory, yes, but in practice, I feel like it’s more difficult than we think because of travel, arena availability and TV commitments.
It’s much easier in the bubble, obviously.
dre.waters: I would hope they consider it, it makes a lot of the late-season games that wouldn’t normally matter worth watching.
sara.ziegler: It does say something, though, about how boring the push to the regular season usually is. (Not always, obviously.)
I hate forced drama most of the time, but this has been so fun to watch.
chris.herring: I think there’s something to be said for the quality of the games and the teams, too. I didn’t really factor that part of it in initially.
sara.ziegler: And it makes me think that if the in-season tournament under consideration by the league were tied to one of the last playoff spots, that might be fun.
dubin: How much of the entertainment factor is attributable to not having sports to watch for so long, and how much is attributable to defenses (somewhat surprisingly) being way behind offenses and pushing every game into the 120s and 130s?
chris.herring: Yeah. Had it been offenses struggling instead of defenses, it would have been tougher to watch.
Moving on to something I’m personally interested in: There are probably 61 reasons that LeBron James and the Lakers would rather face anyone — be it Phoenix, Memphis or even San Antonio — than Dame and the Blazers in a first-round matchup. The Lakers haven’t been all that impressive since the restart, ranking dead last in offense. But would the Blazers or anyone else in that last spot realistically be able to push them in a playoff round?
dubin: I have serious doubts about the Blazers challenging anybody for anything if they continue allowing (approx.) 6091845621 points per 100 possessions on defense.
sara.ziegler: 🤣
dre.waters: LOL, Jared really does have a point though.
Dame is scoring left and right, but somehow they always seem to be in an uphill battle
chris.herring: That’s fair: The Lakers have been trash on offense — there are moments where Bron just fires up threes, almost as if he wants to save his legs, as opposed to driving to the basket. And they’re obviously incorporating Dion Waiters and J.R. Smith.
But L.A.’s defense has still been relatively fine. So I certainly understand thinking that Portland may not be able to get enough stops to be overly competitive.
dubin: The Lakers aren’t going to shut down Dame because nobody can do that, but they do have two of the better wing-on-guard defenders in the league in Danny Green and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, which can make things slightly more difficult for him. Plus, this CJ McCollum back injury sounds … not great.
chris.herring: Yeah! That was so odd when that came across the timeline in such a casual way. We were all confused.
dre.waters: I think the question with CJ is how long could he be out. Because without him, I don’t know how competitive a Lakers/Blazers matchup is.
chris.herring: Honestly, he looked terribly out of rhythm on Tuesday. When the word about his injury came out, it actually made a ton of sense.
Let’s move to the East for at least a minute here: I can’t help but think that the Sixers — maybe the absolute wackiest team in this wacky season we’ve observed — are again in trouble. Ben Simmons is going to miss at least several weeks after having surgery on his knee. Embiid hurt his ankle but is apparently fine, and he just made his return on Wednesday.
They’re going to face the Celtics in Round 1. How likely is it that Philly, a club many saw as a contender or perhaps even favorite in the East, may not get to the second round?
dubin: I feel like it’s pretty likely at this point. Boston was the better team to begin with, and Philly now has one fewer perimeter defender to deal with Kemba Walker, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum and Gordon Hayward.
sara.ziegler: Our model has been higher on the Sixers than their record might have warranted for a lot of the season, just because of their immense talent. But losing Simmons does all kinds of damage to that.
dre.waters: I don’t see the Sixers making it to the second round. Boston is just a better team to me this year.
Even before the bubble, it was always a question of which 76ers you’re going to get today. Now with Embiid’s health, which literally changes by the minute … it’s hard to imagine a situation where they find a way past the Celtics.
chris.herring: Like Jared, my biggest concern for Philly would be its defense without Simmons.
dubin: The most likely path for them to make it out of the first round probably involves Embiid playing 40ish minutes a night, and I feel like that’s not within the realm of reasonable possibilities given his health and conditioning.
chris.herring: Would be slightly intrigued to see if not having Simmons frees up the Sixers’ offense a bit more in a playoff setting. But the defense, sans Simmons, probably makes it too much of an uphill battle. And even if you do take out Boston, it seems like it would have been a bloodbath to do it, and they probably wouldn’t have much left for Toronto in Round 2.
Based on what we’ve seen in the bubble thus far, is there a dark horse/sleeper that we think can come out of this? Either because of what the time off allowed in terms of health, or because of the lack of home-court advantage? Who, if anyone, are we looking at differently now?
dubin: I don’t know that I’m necessarily looking at them differently, but for me I think it’s Houston. James Harden can win any game/series on his own, the Rockets’ style introduces a degree of variance nobody else can match, and they’re just so weird to play against. There’s nobody else like them, so you can’t really get a tune-up until you’re on the court against them.
They also got the second-largest title odds bump in the projections before the restart in the shift from regular playoffs to neutral-site. (First was the Sixers.)
chris.herring: HA, Sixers.
sara.ziegler: LOL, the model didn’t know what would happen to Simmons!
chris.herring: They are truly something.
dre.waters: I was going to say Houston too. To add to that I think Eric Gordon’s return is big for them.
sara.ziegler: If Houston’s short-ball (NOT small-ball) system pays off, that would be an incredible story.
dubin: I would just love for Mike D’Antoni to win a title. I’d be so happy for him.
chris.herring: I guess I was mostly curious about what this restart would do for a team like Toronto. The Raptors were banged up ALL year. They’ve got guys who can’t/won’t qualify for sixth man stuff because they ended up being used as starters out of necessity, with all their injuries.
And while it’s easy to assume that the Raps would be better with a full deck, I did think the bubble concept, along with not having had their full rotation available all year, would create some questions for them — ones that could either help or hurt them, depending on how things played out. Their defense, save for the game against Boston, has been unreal.
sara.ziegler: I don’t think we’re allowed to sleep on the Raptors ever again after last season, so maybe they’re not exactly a dark horse. But they have looked so strong so far.
chris.herring: Not having Kawhi Leonard makes you a dark, dark horse!
sara.ziegler: Haha, true.
chris.herring: At least we thought it did going into the season!
dubin: I don’t want to say too much about their defense for fear of spoiling the story that I took a break from writing to do this chat.
chris.herring: lol
*knock on wood*
sara.ziegler: That’s fair, Jared. But I will say that they’re the only team with a defensive rating approaching 100 in the bubble — at 101.8 after Wednesday night’s game.
chris.herring: They’re the only team even close to that number. The Rockets are the next best at 106.4.
dubin: They have the advantage of being able to play essentially any style because of the versatility and depth they have, as well as Nick Nurse’s creativity and the collective basketball intelligence on the team. Having Kyle Lowry, Serge Ibaka and Marc Gasol makes things pretty fun, and then the younger guys are all different combinations of feisty, strong, rangy and other good defense-y sounding words I’m not gonna think of right now.
They can go small with Pascal Siakam and OG Anunoby as the front line, or big with Gasol-Ibaka-Siakam. They can mix and match Lowry, Norman Powell, Fred VanVleet, even Terence Davis. There’s just so much to work with.
chris.herring: Part of me is hoping they and the Bucks meet again this postseason. Giannis Antetokounmpo definitely wants revenge, and is apparently head-butting people now!
dre.waters: That was crazy!
I think it would be fun to see them go at it. But without Kawhi, I want to see how they stop Giannis for four games.
sara.ziegler: I just want to get the playoffs started!
I’m so greedy — having basketball back isn’t enough for me.
chris.herring: Just a few more days, and will have them. Maybe I’ll try to submit a video so I can be a virtual fan and feel closer to the action.
Check out our latest NBA predictions.


fivethirthyeight--2020-08-14--Biden’s Pledge To Choose A Woman For VP Was Popular — And So Is Harris

Welcome to Pollapalooza , our weekly polling roundup .
Before Joe Biden announced Sen. Kamala Harris as his running mate on Tuesday , criticism of his VP search was heating up .
For some , the announcement back in March that he would pick a woman started to ring hollow the longer the search dragged on .
For others , it felt like an off-key consolation prize , especially after Biden had defeated a number of high-profile women for the Democratic nomination .
And , of course , an added complication was that while he was conducting his vice presidential @ @ @ @ @ @ @ across the country , leading some to demand that Biden pick not just a woman , but a Black woman .
Yet these criticisms don ’ t seem to carry much weight with the public .
Polls over the past few months show that Americans , especially Democrats , overwhelmingly support Biden ’ s decision to choose a woman as his running mate .
For instance , after Biden initially made the announcement during a Democratic primary debate , a late-March Fox News poll found that 63 percent of voters approved of it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Fast forward to late July , and these numbers haven ’ t really changed .
A Yahoo News/YouGov survey found that 62 percent of voters — including 90 percent of Democrats — thought Biden had made the right decision by pledging to choose a woman .
Support for Biden picking a Black woman was pretty high among Democrats , too , when they were asked whether they thought this was important .
A USA Today/Suffolk University survey from late June found that 72 percent of Democrats thought it was important to pick a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ News/YouGov poll from late July found that 60 percent of Democrats felt it was important to pick a Black woman .
A New York Times/Siena College survey from late June found much lower levels of support ( just 25 percent of Democrats said Biden should choose a Black running mate ) , but that may have more to do on how the question was phrased — respondents weren ’ t asked if this was important .
Instead , they were asked if Biden should choose a white person , choose a Black person @ @ @ @ @ @ @ decision .
One other thing that ’ s clear from the polls ?
Harris was the leading contender .
A late-July SurveyUSA/FairVote poll of Democrats and independents found that Harris had the strongest favorability rating among potential VP picks , for instance .
And using ranked-choice voting , the poll also found Harris was the preferred option , beating Sen. Elizabeth Warren 55 percent to 45 percent after second- and third-choice votes were allocated .
( Harris also led 26 percent to 22 percent over Warren in first-choice votes . )
Other favorability @ @ @ @ @ @ @ an early-August survey from The Economist/YouGov and a late-July Politico/Morning Consult poll found Harris had better marks among Democrats than any other VP contender save Warren , although they ran about even in the YouGov survey .
Each poll also found Harris with a slightly better net favorability rating ( favorable percentage minus unfavorable percentage ) than Warren among all respondents .
Two early polls suggest that the public has had a reasonably positive reaction to Harris ’ s selection , too .
A snap poll by YouGov after the pick found that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ choice while 36 percent disapproved .
And 47 percent told ABC News/Ipsos that Harris was an excellent or good choice — including 83 percent of Democrats .
Only 29 percent said the choice was not so good or poor .
Bottom line : Biden ’ s decision to pick a woman as his VP has remained widely popular , and in Harris , he ’ s found a solid No .
2 .
As a former presidential contender , she ’ s already been through public scrutiny of her record and background , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ she has high-level political experience .
She ’ s also a relatively popular choice according to the polls , so her history-making nomination should please many Democrats .
• We already knew that Americans ’ faith in elections was flagging , but another poll from NBC News/SurveyMonkey found the situation isn ’ t getting any better .
A majority of Americans said they were not at all or not too confident that the November election would be conducted in a fair and equal way .
Republicans were the most likely to express a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 65 percent ) , while a majority of independents ( 56 percent ) said the same .
Only 46 percent of Democrats said they lacked confidence in the process .
• According to Morning Consult polling , Biden isn ’ t as disliked as Hillary Clinton was four years ago .
In its latest survey , 35 percent of voters held very unfavorable views of Biden , compared with 43 percent who felt the same about Clinton in early August 2016 .
Broken down by party , the largest difference , by far @ @ @ @ @ @ @ percent viewed Biden very unfavorably , compared with 51 percent who viewed Clinton very unfavorably .
• New polling from Gallup found that Americans , particularly women , do not think women have achieved gender equality in the workplace or in politics .
Overall , a whopping 69 percent of Americans said women had not achieved equality with men in the workplace , while 66 percent said the same of the political sphere .
Among women , the share was much higher — 79 percent said gender equality hadn ’ t happened in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the same of politics .
By comparison , a slimmer majority of men didn ’ t think women had achieved gender equality in the workplace ( 58 percent ) or in politics ( 57 percent ) .
• According to a new report from the Pew Research Center , 79 percent of Americans think houses of worship should be required to follow the same rules about social distancing and large gatherings as other organizations and businesses .
But there was a staggering partisan split on this question : 93 percent of Democrats thought @ @ @ @ @ @ @ rules , compared with 65 percent of Republicans .
A third of Republicans said places of worship should be allowed more flexibility with the rules , while only 7 percent of Democrats agreed .
• Gallup measured Americans ’ level of confidence in 16 U.S. institutions and found that white and Black adults differed the most in their feelings toward the police .
Whereas 56 percent of white respondents had a great deal or quite a lot of confidence in the police , only 19 percent of Black respondents said the same .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ , Black and white adults ’ attitudes differed little except in one other area : the presidency .
Nearly half ( 47 percent ) of white respondents had confidence in the presidency , compared with just 13 percent of Black respondents .
• YouGov asked Americans how they felt about the National Rifle Association ’ s political power after New York Attorney General Letitia James filed a lawsuit to dissolve the organization .
Nearly half ( 48 percent ) said that the NRA wielded too much influence , while 23 percent said it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ percent said it held too little sway , while 20 percent said they didn ’ t know .
Unsurprisingly , most Democrats ( 73 percent ) thought the NRA had too much influence , although about half of independents ( 46 percent ) said they felt the same way .
Conversely , 49 percent of Republicans believed the group had the right amount of power , and 20 percent said it held too little sway .
• Morning Consult found that star players in the National Football League and National Basketball Association may @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Major League Baseball or the National Hockey League .
When asked to name their favorite player in each league , respondents were more likely to name big-name athletes in the NFL , such as Tom Brady and Patrick Mahomes , and in the NBA , such as LeBron James and Steph Curry .
By comparison , the answers for favorite players in the MLB and NHL were more diffuse , possibly reflecting a more regional appeal .
According to FiveThirtyEight ’ s presidential approval tracker , 41.6 percent of Americans approve of the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ while 54.6 percent disapprove ( a net approval rating of -13.0 points ) .
At this time last week , 41.3 percent approved and 54.7 percent disapproved ( a net approval rating of -13.5 points ) .
One month ago , Trump had an approval rating of 40.4 percent and a disapproval rating of 55.2 percent , for a net approval rating of -14.7 points .
In our average of polls of the generic congressional ballot , Democrats currently lead by 7.6 percentage points ( 48.5 percent to 40.9 percent ) .
A @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 7.8 points ( 48.2 percent to 40.5 percent ) .
At this time last month , voters preferred Democrats by 9.0 points ( 49.4 percent to 40.4 percent ) .

Welcome to Pollapalooza, our weekly polling roundup.
Poll(s) of the week
Before Joe Biden announced Sen. Kamala Harris as his running mate on Tuesday, criticism of his VP search was heating up. For some, the announcement back in March that he would pick a woman started to ring hollow the longer the search dragged on. For others, it felt like an off-key consolation prize, especially after Biden had defeated a number of high-profile women for the Democratic nomination. And, of course, an added complication was that while he was conducting his vice presidential search, protests against police brutality rippled across the country, leading some to demand that Biden pick not just a woman, but a Black woman.
Yet these criticisms don’t seem to carry much weight with the public. Polls over the past few months show that Americans, especially Democrats, overwhelmingly support Biden’s decision to choose a woman as his running mate.
For instance, after Biden initially made the announcement during a Democratic primary debate, a late-March Fox News poll found that 63 percent of voters approved of it, including 86 percent of Democrats. Fast forward to late July, and these numbers haven’t really changed. A Yahoo News/YouGov survey found that 62 percent of voters — including 90 percent of Democrats — thought Biden had made the right decision by pledging to choose a woman.
Support for Biden picking a Black woman was pretty high among Democrats, too, when they were asked whether they thought this was important. A USA Today/Suffolk University survey from late June found that 72 percent of Democrats thought it was important to pick a woman of color. And a Yahoo News/YouGov poll from late July found that 60 percent of Democrats felt it was important to pick a Black woman. A New York Times/Siena College survey from late June found much lower levels of support (just 25 percent of Democrats said Biden should choose a Black running mate), but that may have more to do on how the question was phrased — respondents weren’t asked if this was important. Instead, they were asked if Biden should choose a white person, choose a Black person, or not factor race into the decision.
One other thing that’s clear from the polls? Harris was the leading contender. A late-July SurveyUSA/FairVote poll of Democrats and independents found that Harris had the strongest favorability rating among potential VP picks, for instance. And using ranked-choice voting, the poll also found Harris was the preferred option, beating Sen. Elizabeth Warren 55 percent to 45 percent after second- and third-choice votes were allocated. (Harris also led 26 percent to 22 percent over Warren in first-choice votes.)
Other favorability polling echoes the SurveyUSA/FairVote findings. Both an early-August survey from The Economist/YouGov and a late-July Politico/Morning Consult poll found Harris had better marks among Democrats than any other VP contender save Warren, although they ran about even in the YouGov survey. Each poll also found Harris with a slightly better net favorability rating (favorable percentage minus unfavorable percentage) than Warren among all respondents.
Two early polls suggest that the public has had a reasonably positive reaction to Harris’s selection, too. A snap poll by YouGov after the pick found that 51 percent of voters approved of the choice while 36 percent disapproved. And 47 percent told ABC News/Ipsos that Harris was an excellent or good choice — including 83 percent of Democrats. Only 29 percent said the choice was not so good or poor.
Bottom line: Biden’s decision to pick a woman as his VP has remained widely popular, and in Harris, he’s found a solid No. 2. As a former presidential contender, she’s already been through public scrutiny of her record and background, and, as a U.S. senator, she has high-level political experience. She’s also a relatively popular choice according to the polls, so her history-making nomination should please many Democrats.
Other polling bites
We already knew that Americans’ faith in elections was flagging, but another poll from NBC News/SurveyMonkey found the situation isn’t getting any better. A majority of Americans said they were not at all or not too confident that the November election would be conducted in a fair and equal way. Republicans were the most likely to express a lack of faith in the process (65 percent), while a majority of independents (56 percent) said the same. Only 46 percent of Democrats said they lacked confidence in the process.
According to Morning Consult polling, Biden isn’t as disliked as Hillary Clinton was four years ago. In its latest survey, 35 percent of voters held very unfavorable views of Biden, compared with 43 percent who felt the same about Clinton in early August 2016. Broken down by party, the largest difference, by far, was among independents: Just 31 percent viewed Biden very unfavorably, compared with 51 percent who viewed Clinton very unfavorably.
New polling from Gallup found that Americans, particularly women, do not think women have achieved gender equality in the workplace or in politics. Overall, a whopping 69 percent of Americans said women had not achieved equality with men in the workplace, while 66 percent said the same of the political sphere. Among women, the share was much higher — 79 percent said gender equality hadn’t happened in the workplace, and 75 percent said the same of politics. By comparison, a slimmer majority of men didn’t think women had achieved gender equality in the workplace (58 percent) or in politics (57 percent).
According to a new report from the Pew Research Center, 79 percent of Americans think houses of worship should be required to follow the same rules about social distancing and large gatherings as other organizations and businesses. But there was a staggering partisan split on this question: 93 percent of Democrats thought houses of worship should follow the same rules, compared with 65 percent of Republicans. A third of Republicans said places of worship should be allowed more flexibility with the rules, while only 7 percent of Democrats agreed.
Gallup measured Americans’ level of confidence in 16 U.S. institutions and found that white and Black adults differed the most in their feelings toward the police. Whereas 56 percent of white respondents had a great deal or quite a lot of confidence in the police, only 19 percent of Black respondents said the same. Among the other institutions Gallup asked about, Black and white adults’ attitudes differed little except in one other area: the presidency. Nearly half (47 percent) of white respondents had confidence in the presidency, compared with just 13 percent of Black respondents.
YouGov asked Americans how they felt about the National Rifle Association’s political power after New York Attorney General Letitia James filed a lawsuit to dissolve the organization. Nearly half (48 percent) said that the NRA wielded too much influence, while 23 percent said it had the right amount. Only 9 percent said it held too little sway, while 20 percent said they didn’t know. Unsurprisingly, most Democrats (73 percent) thought the NRA had too much influence, although about half of independents (46 percent) said they felt the same way. Conversely, 49 percent of Republicans believed the group had the right amount of power, and 20 percent said it held too little sway.
Morning Consult found that star players in the National Football League and National Basketball Association may have more national appeal than those in Major League Baseball or the National Hockey League. When asked to name their favorite player in each league, respondents were more likely to name big-name athletes in the NFL, such as Tom Brady and Patrick Mahomes, and in the NBA, such as LeBron James and Steph Curry. By comparison, the answers for favorite players in the MLB and NHL were more diffuse, possibly reflecting a more regional appeal.
Trump approval
According to FiveThirtyEight’s presidential approval tracker, 41.6 percent of Americans approve of the job Trump is doing as president, while 54.6 percent disapprove (a net approval rating of -13.0 points). At this time last week, 41.3 percent approved and 54.7 percent disapproved (a net approval rating of -13.5 points). One month ago, Trump had an approval rating of 40.4 percent and a disapproval rating of 55.2 percent, for a net approval rating of -14.7 points.
Generic ballot
In our average of polls of the generic congressional ballot, Democrats currently lead by 7.6 percentage points (48.5 percent to 40.9 percent). A week ago, Democrats led Republicans by 7.8 points (48.2 percent to 40.5 percent). At this time last month, voters preferred Democrats by 9.0 points (49.4 percent to 40.4 percent).


fivethirthyeight--2020-08-14--Why We’re Planning For An Election Day That Could Last Months

Election Day isn ’ t one day anymore .
The 2020 election is shaping up to be a whole “ election month ” — or even election months , depending how things go .
Instead of Americans going to the polls en masse on Nov. 3 , many voters will probably make their decisions and cast their ballots over the course of October .
And instead of learning who won on election night , we ’ ll likely have to wait days — or in some states , weeks — for full results , as the counting of mail ballots @ @ @ @ @ @ @ we are accustomed to .
The coronavirus pandemic is responsible for this : Concerns over public health have prompted dozens of states to change their election laws and procedures to make it easier to vote before Election Day .
Not every state has followed suit , but the changes have been pretty sweeping so far : • Four places ( California , Nevada , Vermont and Washington , D.C. ) are mailing ballots to all voters , joining the five states ( Colorado , Hawaii , Oregon , Utah and Washington ) that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Montana is also giving individual counties the option to mail ballots to voters .
• Twelve states ( Arizona , Delaware , Iowa , Illinois , Maryland , Massachusetts , Michigan , Nebraska , North Dakota , South Dakota , Wisconsin and Wyoming ) decided to mail absentee-ballot applications to all or most voters , joining Ohio , which has done so in every general election since 2012 .
• Eight states ( Alabama , Arkansas , Connecticut , Delaware , Massachusetts , Missouri , New Hampshire and West Virginia ) have loosened @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to vote absentee so anyone can request a ballot .
• Six states ( California , Massachusetts , Minnesota , Mississippi , Nevada and New York ) have extended the deadline for mail ballots to be sent or received .
• Five states ( Minnesota , Missouri , North Carolina , Oklahoma and Rhode Island ) have totally or partially eased requirements that mail ballot envelopes be notarized or signed by a witness .
• Three states ( Georgia , Michigan and New York ) are building or have launched a portal to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
• Two states ( Massachusetts and Texas ) are providing more days of early voting .
It ’ s dizzying enough to keep up with all of the changes and deadlines in your state — let alone across the entire nation .
So FiveThirtyEight is doing it for you .
Today we ’ re proud to unveil our new state-by-state guide on how to vote in all 50 states and Washington , D.C. , which not only aggregates these changes by state and category but is also a compendium of election laws @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
First and foremost , this is a public service project meant to help voters navigate the latest voting rules in their state .
Maybe you feel more comfortable voting by mail this year , but you ’ re not sure how ; we ’ ll tell you how to request an absentee ballot ( and mail it back in time to count ) .
Maybe you prefer voting in person ; we ’ ve got info on whether polling places will be open as usual and when you might be able to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ not even registered yet ; we ’ ve got all you need to know about joining the rolls .
And since states aren ’ t done making changes , neither are we : We ’ ve highlighted aspects of election administration that are still in flux in the “ What we ’ re watching ” section for relevant states , and we ’ ll keep the guide up to date with further revisions to each state ’ s voting process — right up until Nov. 3 .
We ’ ve made every effort @ @ @ @ @ @ @ but it must be said : Always double-check this information with your local election official before acting upon it .
Election laws in the age of COVID-19 are moving targets , and certain voters — like those living overseas or in the armed forces — may be subject to special rules .
Always follow directions from official sources , like those on your absentee-ballot envelope , over ours .
If you ever see something you think is wrong or needs to be updated , please shoot us an email .
We also created @ @ @ @ @ @ @ holistic sense for how different the 2020 election might look .
That includes how different it might look from past elections , and also how different the 2020 election might look in one state versus another .
Thanks to the U.S. ’ s decentralized election system , each state is responding to the pandemic in different ways — as is clear from the map at the top of the guide , which illustrates which states have the most permissive mail-voting laws and which have the most restrictive .
For instance , as of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ eight states are not planning to allow all voters to vote absentee .
And as you can see in our map , they are , by and large , Southern states with Republican-controlled legislatures .
( New York is a notable exception . )
We ’ re also using this guide to help us anticipate which states might encounter problems during election month — either because they failed to adapt their election procedures to the pandemic , or because they made a big change that they are not up to the task of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that states that are mailing ballots , or even applications for mail-in ballots , to every voter for the first time overwhelm the election workers tasked with processing those materials .
In primary elections over the last few months , states that rapidly expanded mail voting often had trouble delivering ballots to voters on time .
Another common problem in primaries has been long lines ( sometimes as long as seven hours ! )
to vote in person in states that opened fewer polling places .
This is not usually a deliberate change @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to consolidate polling places because so many poll workers — who tend to be older and thus at higher risk from the coronavirus — have opted out .
Accordingly , we don ’ t yet know much about what in-person voting access will look like on Nov. 3 ; as far as we ’ ve been able to ascertain , only Maryland , Montana , North Dakota and Washington , D.C. , have announced plans to offer fewer in-person polling places on Election Day itself .
( However , two states — California @ @ @ @ @ @ @ about polling-place consolidation in an attempt to mitigate its ill effects . )
But more will almost certainly join them , and given the potential it brings for Election Day chaos , we will add that information to the guide as it emerges .
Lastly , there ’ s a very real chance that we won ’ t know the winner of the election on election night , or even the day after .
This is the other half of election month : the multiple weeks that it will probably take to count @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the winner of the election before that , though , because some states will count much quicker than others — something else the guide can help with .
In general , states that encourage voting by mail will likely be slower to count their votes , since mail-in ballots take longer to process than in-person votes : Their envelopes need to be opened , signatures need to be verified and special machines are often needed to count them .
In addition , a number of states only require ballots to be postmarked by @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ballots will still be in the mail on election night in those states , so it will be impossible for initial results there to be complete .
This was only an issue in a handful of states ( e.g.
, California , Utah , Washington ) before 2020 , because few people voted by mail in most states with postmark deadlines ( e.g.
, Illinois , Maryland , North Carolina ) — but that won ’ t be the case this year .
And the list of slow-counting states will only grow if @ @ @ @ @ @ @ deadlines in response to the pandemic or recent issues with slow postal service .
And with the caveat that a thorough count is better than a fast one , there is a particular sense of urgency that this election be resolved quickly to avoid claims that the election is illegitimate .
President Trump has already decried mail ballots as fraudulent and hinted he will not concede the election , and polls show that Americans are already losing faith in the electoral process .
The spread of vote by mail , missing ballots , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ these are just some of the issues FiveThirtyEight will be using the guide to track over the next three months .
We invite you to do so as well .
But if nothing else , make a plan to vote today .

Election Day isn’t one day anymore. The 2020 election is shaping up to be a whole “election month” — or even election months, depending how things go.
Instead of Americans going to the polls en masse on Nov. 3, many voters will probably make their decisions and cast their ballots over the course of October. And instead of learning who won on election night, we’ll likely have to wait days — or in some states, weeks — for full results, as the counting of mail ballots proceeds at a much slower pace than we are accustomed to.
The coronavirus pandemic is responsible for this: Concerns over public health have prompted dozens of states to change their election laws and procedures to make it easier to vote before Election Day. Not every state has followed suit, but the changes have been pretty sweeping so far:
It’s dizzying enough to keep up with all of the changes and deadlines in your state — let alone across the entire nation. So FiveThirtyEight is doing it for you. Today we’re proud to unveil our new state-by-state guide on how to vote in all 50 states and Washington, D.C., which not only aggregates these changes by state and category but is also a compendium of election laws that existed before the pandemic even started.
First and foremost, this is a public service project meant to help voters navigate the latest voting rules in their state. Maybe you feel more comfortable voting by mail this year, but you’re not sure how; we’ll tell you how to request an absentee ballot (and mail it back in time to count). Maybe you prefer voting in person; we’ve got info on whether polling places will be open as usual and when you might be able to vote early. Maybe you’re not even registered yet; we’ve got all you need to know about joining the rolls.
And since states aren’t done making changes, neither are we: We’ve highlighted aspects of election administration that are still in flux in the “What we’re watching” section for relevant states, and we’ll keep the guide up to date with further revisions to each state’s voting process — right up until Nov. 3. We’ve made every effort to ensure the guide is accurate, but it must be said: Always double-check this information with your local election official before acting upon it. Election laws in the age of COVID-19 are moving targets, and certain voters — like those living overseas or in the armed forces — may be subject to special rules. Always follow directions from official sources, like those on your absentee-ballot envelope, over ours. If you ever see something you think is wrong or needs to be updated, please shoot us an email.
We also created the guide in part to get a holistic sense for how different the 2020 election might look. That includes how different it might look from past elections, and also how different the 2020 election might look in one state versus another. Thanks to the U.S.’s decentralized election system, each state is responding to the pandemic in different ways — as is clear from the map at the top of the guide, which illustrates which states have the most permissive mail-voting laws and which have the most restrictive. For instance, as of the publication of this article, only eight states are not planning to allow all voters to vote absentee. And as you can see in our map, they are, by and large, Southern states with Republican-controlled legislatures. (New York is a notable exception.)
We’re also using this guide to help us anticipate which states might encounter problems during election month — either because they failed to adapt their election procedures to the pandemic, or because they made a big change that they are not up to the task of implementing. One very real possibility is that states that are mailing ballots, or even applications for mail-in ballots, to every voter for the first time overwhelm the election workers tasked with processing those materials. In primary elections over the last few months, states that rapidly expanded mail voting often had trouble delivering ballots to voters on time.
Another common problem in primaries has been long lines (sometimes as long as seven hours!) to vote in person in states that opened fewer polling places. This is not usually a deliberate change; rather, jurisdictions have been forced to consolidate polling places because so many poll workers — who tend to be older and thus at higher risk from the coronavirus — have opted out. Accordingly, we don’t yet know much about what in-person voting access will look like on Nov. 3; as far as we’ve been able to ascertain, only Maryland, Montana, North Dakota, Ohio and Washington, D.C., have announced plans to offer fewer in-person polling places on Election Day itself. (However, two states — California and Nevada — have passed new rules about polling-place consolidation in an attempt to mitigate its ill effects.) But more will almost certainly join them, and given the potential it brings for Election Day chaos, we will add that information to the guide as it emerges.
Lastly, there’s a very real chance that we won’t know the winner of the election on election night, or even the day after. This is the other half of election month: the multiple weeks that it will probably take to count every vote. We will likely know the winner of the election before that, though, because some states will count much quicker than others — something else the guide can help with. In general, states that encourage voting by mail will likely be slower to count their votes, since mail-in ballots take longer to process than in-person votes: Their envelopes need to be opened, signatures need to be verified and special machines are often needed to count them.
In addition, a number of states only require ballots to be postmarked by Nov. 3. That means many valid ballots will still be in the mail on election night in those states, so it will be impossible for initial results there to be complete. This was only an issue in a handful of states (e.g., California, Utah, Washington) before 2020, because few people voted by mail in most states with postmark deadlines (e.g., Illinois, Maryland, North Carolina) — but that won’t be the case this year. And the list of slow-counting states will only grow if more states decide to switch to postmark deadlines in response to the pandemic or recent issues with slow postal service.
And with the caveat that a thorough count is better than a fast one, there is a particular sense of urgency that this election be resolved quickly to avoid claims that the election is illegitimate. President Trump has already decried mail ballots as fraudulent and hinted he will not concede the election, and polls show that Americans are already losing faith in the electoral process.
The spread of vote by mail, missing ballots, in-person voting access, delayed results — these are just some of the issues FiveThirtyEight will be using the guide to track over the next three months. We invite you to do so as well. But if nothing else, make a plan to vote today.
Editor’s note: We will not be updating this article as new election procedures are announced, but we are tracking these changes in our state-by-state voting guide. The original version of this article omitted a few changes to state election procedures that had already been announced in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. We have made those additions, but subsequent changes will be tracked only in our interactive.


fivethirthyeight--2020-08-14--How To Vote In The 2020 Election

How To Vote In The 2020 Election

Everyone can vote absentee , and ballots are automatically mailed to voters Everyone can vote absentee , and absentee-ballot applications @ @ @ @ @ Everyone can vote absentee , but nothing is being mailed to voters* You can vote @ @ @ @ @ a valid excuse ( the pandemic doesn ’ t count )

Everyone can vote by mail, and ballots are automatically mailed to voters
Everyone can vote by mail, and mail-ballot applications are automatically mailed to voters
Everyone can vote by mail, but nothing is automatically mailed to voters*
You can vote by mail only if you have a valid excuse (the pandemic doesn’t count)


fivethirthyeight--2020-08-14--Are You Hip Enough To Be Square?

Are You Hip Enough To Be Square?

Welcome to The Riddler .
Every week , I offer up problems related to the things we hold dear around here : math , logic and probability .
Two puzzles are presented each week : the Riddler Express for those of you who want something bite-size and the Riddler Classic for those of you in the slow-puzzle movement .
Submit a correct answer for either , and you may get a shoutout in next week ’ s column .
Please wait until Monday to publicly share your answers !
If you need a hint or have a favorite puzzle collecting @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on Twitter .
From Dean Ballard comes a sneaky sorting of squares : You have a large pile of squares that each have a side length of 1 inch .
One square is blue , while all the other squares are white .
You want to arrange several white squares so they cover part of the blue square but don ’ t overlap with each other .
For example , here ’ s how you could arrange four white squares so they each cover part of the blue square .
What is the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ place so that each covers part of the blue square without overlapping one another ?
( The entire blue square does not have to be covered , while the blue area that each white square covers must be nonzero . )
From Angela Zhou comes one riddle to rule them all : The Riddler Manufacturing Company makes all sorts of mathematical tools : compasses , protractors , slide rules — you name it !
Recently , there was an issue with the production of foot-long rulers .
It seems that each ruler was @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the ruler , resulting in four pieces .
Looking on the bright side , that means there are now four times as many rulers — they just happen to have different lengths .
On average , how long are the pieces that contain the 6-inch mark ?
Congratulations to 👏 Richard Dickerman 👏 of Dallas , Texas , winner of last week ’ s Riddler Express .
Last week , I was hiking on Euclid Island , which was perfectly rectangular and measured 3 miles long by 2 miles wide .
I was @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the shore that was nearest to my position .
From where I had been standing , there were in fact two distinct points on the shore that were both the closest such points .
It turned out the trail I was hiking along connected all such locations on the island — those with multiple nearest points on the shore .
What was the total length of this trail on Euclid Island ?
The dead center of the island was a logical place for many solvers to start .
It was just 1 mile @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
But before we looked for other such points , what did it mean , mathematically , for there to be multiple nearest points on the shore ?
One way to think about it was to grow a circle ( kind of like blowing up a balloon ) centered at your current position .
As the circle got larger and larger , it eventually touched ( i.e.
, was tangent to ) the shore .
The moment the circle touched the shore , you had to look at how many places it touched @ @ @ @ @ @ @ one such point of tangency , then you weren ’ t on the trail .
But if there were two or more such points , then you were indeed on the trail .
So what did Euclid Island ’ s trail actually look like ?
Rebekah Murphy noticed the trail included a segment of length 1 that ran east-west down the middle of the island .
Every point on this segment was equidistant from the north and south shores .
( Interestingly , the endpoints of this segment were equidistant from three distinct @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the fun didn ’ t end there .
Ishaan Bhatia noted that the trail also had four additional segments , which ran between the endpoints of the middle segment and the four corners of the island .
( While the corners themselves were not part of the trail — after all , they were on the beach — the trail came infinitesimally close , which meant the exclusion of these points didn ’ t affect your length calculations . )
The animation below puts all five segments together , revealing the entire green @ @ @ @ @ @ @ circle that grows and shrinks demonstrates the points of tangency ( i.e.
, the nearest spots on the beach ) for each location on the trail .
At this point , we ’ re ready to answer the original question , which asked you to determine the total length of the trail .
As we already said , the middle segment had a length of 1 .
Using the Pythagorean theorem ( or , rather , the Babylonian Formula ) , the remaining four segments had a length of √2 .
That meant @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 1+4√2 miles , or about 6.657 miles .
For extra credit , you looked at Al-Battani Island , which was elliptical rather than rectangular .
Al-Battani Island ’ s major axis was 3 miles long , while its minor axis was 2 miles long .
Like Euclid Island , Al-Battani Island had a hiking trail that connected all locations with multiple nearest points on the shore .
What was the total length of this trail on Al-Battani Island ?
As with Euclid Island , a good place to start was the dead center @ @ @ @ @ @ @ two endpoints of the minor axis .
And once again , there was a central horizontal segment that ran along the major axis .
The challenge here was figuring out just where the trail ended .
It didn ’ t cover the entire major axis , because when it got too close to the endpoints , there was only a single point of tangency .
In other words , you had to find when the circle — centered on an ellipse ’ s major axis and internally tangent to the ellipse — transitioned @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , as illustrated below : And that ’ s where the math got hairy .
If you assumed the ellipse was centered at ( 0 , 0 ) , then it was described by the equation x2/1.52 + y2 = 1 .
Meanwhile , the equation for a circle with radius R centered at h on the x-axis was ( x−h ) 2 + y2 = R2 .
From there , you had to find coordinates ( x , y ) that satisfied both equations , but you also needed to use calculus @ @ @ @ @ @ @ had matching slopes at these points .
In the end , as long as the center of the circle was between ( −5/6 , 0 ) and ( 5/6 , 0 ) , the circle was tangent to the ellipse in two locations .
That meant the distance between these two points — about 1.667 miles — was the length of the trail and the answer to the extra credit .
Quite the challenging hike , if you ask me .
And if you ’ d like to explore this problem further , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ graph on Desmos , courtesy of solver Hypergeometricx .
Congratulations to 👏 Bill Neagle 👏 of Springfield , Missouri , winner of last week ’ s Riddler Classic .
Last week , inspired by Kareem Carr , you looked at an alternative definition for addition and followed where it led .
To compute the sum of x and y , you combined groups of x and y nematodes and left them for 24 hours .
When you came back , you counted up how many you had — and that was the sum @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the course of 24 hours , the nematodes paired up , and each pair had one offspring 50 percent of the time .
( If you had an odd number of nematodes , they still paired up , but one was left out . )
So if you wanted to compute 1+1 , half the time you ’ d get 2 , and half the time you ’ d get 3 .
If you computed 2+2 , 25 percent of the time you ’ d get 4 , 50 percent of the time @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 25 percent of the time you ’ d get 6 .
We also redefined exponentiation : Raising a sum to a power meant leaving that sum of nematodes for the number of days specified by the exponent .
With this number system , what was the expected value of ( 1+1 ) 4 ?
A good strategy here was to work your way up , one power at a time .
First , what was the expected value of ( 1+1 ) 1 ?
You initially had two nematodes that paired up , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 50 percent chance they ’ d have one offspring .
So the expected value of ( 1+1 ) 1 was 2.5 .
Next , what was the expected value of ( 1+1 ) 2 ?
In other words , what was the expected number of worms after 48 hours ?
As we said , after 24 hours , there was a 50 percent chance there were two worms and a 50 percent chance there were three worms .
After another 24 hours , the two-worm case had an expected value of 2.5 .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ two worms that paired up along with a third wheel .
The pair of worms resulted in an expected value of 2.5 , and adding the third worm gave an expected value of 3.5 .
Half the time there would be 2.5 worms , and the other half the time there would be 3.5 worms , which meant the expected value was an even 3 .
Let ’ s do one more : What was the expected value of ( 1+1 ) 3 ?
Digging through the previous paragraph , we just saw @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 25 percent chance of having two worms , a 50 percent chance of having three worms and a 25 percent chance of having four worms .
In the two-worm case , the expected number of worms after 72 hours was again 2.5 .
In the three-worm case , the expected number of worms after 72 hours was 3.5 .
The four-worm case was more complicated — 25 percent of the time there would still be four worms after 72 hours , 50 percent of the time there would be five worms , and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ be six worms .
Putting all these cases ( and sub-cases ) together , the expected value of ( 1+1 ) 3 was 0.25·2.5 + 0.5·3.5 + 0.25· ( 0.25·4 + 0.5·5 + 0.25·6 ) , or 3.625 .
I ’ ll spare you all the casework for ( 1+1 ) 4 .
After 96 hours , there could be anywhere from two to nine worms .
The expected value was 4.40625 worms .
Andrew Heairet neatly visualized the breakdown of probabilities over the course of 96 hours : Mark Girard went beyond @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of nematodes more than two weeks later .
This value appeared to increase exponentially over time , which is the perfect segue into the extra credit , which asked you how the expected value of ( 1+1 ) N behaved as N got larger and larger .
As many solvers correctly observed , the expression goes off to infinity .
But the real question was how .
The challenge here related to the “ odd worms out , ” which sat out reproductive cycles .
Were it not for them , the math @ @ @ @ @ @ @ each pair of worms , their number either stayed the same or increased by 50 percent over each 24-hour period .
Averaging those two possibilities meant the expected number increased by 25 percent every 24 hours .
But again , this reasoning didn ’ t apply , thanks to the occasional one worm who didn ’ t pair up .
To figure this out , some solvers fit exponential models directly to the data .
For example , Hypergeometricx found the growth was intriguingly close to 1.56· ( 1.23456789 ) N. Meanwhile , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ) N−1 was in fact a pretty decent approximation .
But Rajeev Pakalapati took the cake , showing — analytically , mind you — that 2· ( 1.25 ) N−1 + 0.5 was the limiting behavior of nematode exponentiation .
His work is shown below , and you can also follow along via Steve Gabriel ’ s helpful transcription .
Indeed , this was a fun and challenging foray into an alternate set of operations .
Only one submitter felt threatened enough to compare this riddle to an Orwellian dystopia .
Needless to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ very far with the math .
Well , aren ’ t you lucky ?
There ’ s a whole book full of the best puzzles from this column and some never-before-seen head-scratchers .
It ’ s called “ The Riddler , ” and it ’ s in stores now !

Welcome to The Riddler. Every week, I offer up problems related to the things we hold dear around here: math, logic and probability. Two puzzles are presented each week: the Riddler Express for those of you who want something bite-size and the Riddler Classic for those of you in the slow-puzzle movement. Submit a correct answer for either, and you may get a shoutout in next week’s column. Please wait until Monday to publicly share your answers! If you need a hint or have a favorite puzzle collecting dust in your attic, find me on Twitter.
Riddler Express
From Dean Ballard comes a sneaky sorting of squares:
You have a large pile of squares that each have a side length of 1 inch. One square is blue, while all the other squares are white. You want to arrange several white squares so they cover part of the blue square but don’t overlap with each other.
For example, here’s how you could arrange four white squares so they each cover part of the blue square.
What is the greatest number of white squares you can place so that each covers part of the blue square without overlapping one another? (The entire blue square does not have to be covered, while the blue area that each white square covers must be nonzero.)
The solution to this Riddler Express can be found in the following week’s column.
Riddler Classic
From Angela Zhou comes one riddle to rule them all:
The Riddler Manufacturing Company makes all sorts of mathematical tools: compasses, protractors, slide rules — you name it!
Recently, there was an issue with the production of foot-long rulers. It seems that each ruler was accidentally sliced at three random points along the ruler, resulting in four pieces. Looking on the bright side, that means there are now four times as many rulers — they just happen to have different lengths.
On average, how long are the pieces that contain the 6-inch mark?
The solution to this Riddler Classic can be found in the following week’s column.
Solution to last week’s Riddler Express
Congratulations to 👏 Richard Dickerman 👏 of Dallas, Texas, winner of last week’s Riddler Express.
Last week, I was hiking on Euclid Island, which was perfectly rectangular and measured 3 miles long by 2 miles wide. I was especially interested in locating the point on the shore that was nearest to my position.
From where I had been standing, there were in fact two distinct points on the shore that were both the closest such points. It turned out the trail I was hiking along connected all such locations on the island — those with multiple nearest points on the shore.
What was the total length of this trail on Euclid Island?
The dead center of the island was a logical place for many solvers to start. It was just 1 mile along the width — in either direction. But before we looked for other such points, what did it mean, mathematically, for there to be multiple nearest points on the shore?
One way to think about it was to grow a circle (kind of like blowing up a balloon) centered at your current position. As the circle got larger and larger, it eventually touched (i.e., was tangent to) the shore. The moment the circle touched the shore, you had to look at how many places it touched the shore. If there was only one such point of tangency, then you weren’t on the trail. But if there were two or more such points, then you were indeed on the trail.
So what did Euclid Island’s trail actually look like? Rebekah Murphy noticed the trail included a segment of length 1 that ran east-west down the middle of the island. Every point on this segment was equidistant from the north and south shores. (Interestingly, the endpoints of this segment were equidistant from three distinct points along the shore.)
But the fun didn’t end there. Ishaan Bhatia noted that the trail also had four additional segments, which ran between the endpoints of the middle segment and the four corners of the island. (While the corners themselves were not part of the trail — after all, they were on the beach — the trail came infinitesimally close, which meant the exclusion of these points didn’t affect your length calculations.)
The animation below puts all five segments together, revealing the entire green hiking trail on Euclid Island. The circle that grows and shrinks demonstrates the points of tangency (i.e., the nearest spots on the beach) for each location on the trail.
At this point, we’re ready to answer the original question, which asked you to determine the total length of the trail. As we already said, the middle segment had a length of 1. Using the Pythagorean theorem (or, rather, the Babylonian Formula), the remaining four segments had a length of √2. That meant the total length of the trail was 1+4√2 miles, or about 6.657 miles.
For extra credit, you looked at Al-Battani Island, which was elliptical rather than rectangular. Al-Battani Island’s major axis was 3 miles long, while its minor axis was 2 miles long. Like Euclid Island, Al-Battani Island had a hiking trail that connected all locations with multiple nearest points on the shore. What was the total length of this trail on Al-Battani Island?
As with Euclid Island, a good place to start was the dead center, which was 1 mile from the two endpoints of the minor axis. And once again, there was a central horizontal segment that ran along the major axis. The challenge here was figuring out just where the trail ended.
It didn’t cover the entire major axis, because when it got too close to the endpoints, there was only a single point of tangency. In other words, you had to find when the circle — centered on an ellipse’s major axis and internally tangent to the ellipse — transitioned between one and two points of tangency, as illustrated below:
And that’s where the math got hairy. If you assumed the ellipse was centered at (0, 0), then it was described by the equation x2/1.52 + y2 = 1. Meanwhile, the equation for a circle with radius R centered at h on the x-axis was (x−h)2 + y2 = R2. From there, you had to find coordinates (x, y) that satisfied both equations, but you also needed to use calculus to ensure the circle and the ellipse had matching slopes at these points.
In the end, as long as the center of the circle was between (−5/6, 0) and (5/6, 0), the circle was tangent to the ellipse in two locations. That meant the distance between these two points — about 1.667 miles — was the length of the trail and the answer to the extra credit.
Quite the challenging hike, if you ask me. And if you’d like to explore this problem further, check out an interactive version of this graph on Desmos, courtesy of solver Hypergeometricx.
Solution to last week’s Riddler Classic
Congratulations to 👏 Bill Neagle 👏 of Springfield, Missouri, winner of last week’s Riddler Classic.
Last week, inspired by Kareem Carr, you looked at an alternative definition for addition and followed where it led. To compute the sum of x and y, you combined groups of x and y nematodes and left them for 24 hours. When you came back, you counted up how many you had — and that was the sum!
It turned out that, over the course of 24 hours, the nematodes paired up, and each pair had one offspring 50 percent of the time. (If you had an odd number of nematodes, they still paired up, but one was left out.) So if you wanted to compute 1+1, half the time you’d get 2, and half the time you’d get 3. If you computed 2+2, 25 percent of the time you’d get 4, 50 percent of the time you’d get 5, and 25 percent of the time you’d get 6.
We also redefined exponentiation: Raising a sum to a power meant leaving that sum of nematodes for the number of days specified by the exponent.
With this number system, what was the expected value of (1+1)4?
A good strategy here was to work your way up, one power at a time. First, what was the expected value of (1+1)1? You initially had two nematodes that paired up, and after 24 hours there was a 50 percent chance they’d have one offspring. So the expected value of (1+1)1 was 2.5.
Next, what was the expected value of (1+1)2? In other words, what was the expected number of worms after 48 hours? As we said, after 24 hours, there was a 50 percent chance there were two worms and a 50 percent chance there were three worms. After another 24 hours, the two-worm case had an expected value of 2.5. Meanwhile, the three-worm case resulted in two worms that paired up along with a third wheel. The pair of worms resulted in an expected value of 2.5, and adding the third worm gave an expected value of 3.5. Half the time there would be 2.5 worms, and the other half the time there would be 3.5 worms, which meant the expected value was an even 3.
Let’s do one more: What was the expected value of (1+1)3? Digging through the previous paragraph, we just saw that after 48 hours there was a 25 percent chance of having two worms, a 50 percent chance of having three worms and a 25 percent chance of having four worms. In the two-worm case, the expected number of worms after 72 hours was again 2.5. In the three-worm case, the expected number of worms after 72 hours was 3.5. The four-worm case was more complicated — 25 percent of the time there would still be four worms after 72 hours, 50 percent of the time there would be five worms, and 25 percent of the time there would be six worms. Putting all these cases (and sub-cases) together, the expected value of (1+1)3 was 0.25·2.5 + 0.5·3.5 + 0.25·(0.25·4 + 0.5·5 + 0.25·6), or 3.625.
I’ll spare you all the casework for (1+1)4. After 96 hours, there could be anywhere from two to nine worms. The expected value was 4.40625 worms. Andrew Heairet neatly visualized the breakdown of probabilities over the course of 96 hours:
I took a break from puzzling last weekend to go get married but I’m back to Riddler Nation again! For @xaqwg’s #ThisWeeksRiddler the expected value of (1+1)^4 is 4.40625. Here’s how it unfolds: pic.twitter.com/bcp940qJav — Andrew (@AndrewCarrot) August 10, 2020
Mark Girard went beyond 96 hours and found the expected number of nematodes more than two weeks later. This value appeared to increase exponentially over time, which is the perfect segue into the extra credit, which asked you how the expected value of (1+1)N behaved as N got larger and larger. As many solvers correctly observed, the expression goes off to infinity. But the real question was how.
The challenge here related to the “odd worms out,” which sat out reproductive cycles. Were it not for them, the math would have been more straightforward. For each pair of worms, their number either stayed the same or increased by 50 percent over each 24-hour period. Averaging those two possibilities meant the expected number increased by 25 percent every 24 hours. But again, this reasoning didn’t apply, thanks to the occasional one worm who didn’t pair up.
To figure this out, some solvers fit exponential models directly to the data. For example, Hypergeometricx found the growth was intriguingly close to 1.56·(1.23456789)N. Meanwhile, Josh Silverman showed that 2·(1.25)N−1 was in fact a pretty decent approximation.
But Rajeev Pakalapati took the cake, showing — analytically, mind you — that 2·(1.25)N−1 + 0.5 was the limiting behavior of nematode exponentiation. His work is shown below, and you can also follow along via Steve Gabriel’s helpful transcription.
Indeed, this was a fun and challenging foray into an alternate set of operations. Only one submitter felt threatened enough to compare this riddle to an Orwellian dystopia. Needless to say, they didn’t get very far with the math.
Want more riddles?
Well, aren’t you lucky? There’s a whole book full of the best puzzles from this column and some never-before-seen head-scratchers. It’s called “The Riddler,” and it’s in stores now!
Want to submit a riddle?
Email Zach Wissner-Gross at riddlercolumn@gmail.com


fivethirthyeight--2020-08-14--Nate Silver Introduces The 2020 Election Forecast

FiveThirtyEight editor-in-chief Nate Silver walks us through the 2020 Presidential Election Forecast .
Learn how to navigate the new model @ @ @ @ @ to keep an eye on as Election Day approaches .

FiveThirtyEight editor-in-chief Nate Silver walks us through the 2020 Presidential Election Forecast. Learn how to navigate the new model — and find out what to keep an eye on as Election Day approaches.


fivethirthyeight--2020-08-14--These 3 Breakout Stars Are Making The Most Of The WNBA Bubble

In an Atlanta Dream offseason with plenty of splashy additions , including fourth overall draft pick Chennedy Carter and standout guard Courtney Williams , the signing of Betnijah Laney off waivers did not register much reaction .
Even head coach Nicki Collen said she thought of Laney as more of a substitute energy source , primarily wanting the versatile 6-footer as a defensive option off the bench .
This was not an unreasonable viewpoint .
Laney shot 36.2 percent from the field in 2019 , including 30.3 percent from three , mostly staying on the floor for Pokey Chatman ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ opponents .
But so far in 2020 , Laney has been one of the best offensive players in the WNBA .
She is tied for 10th in the league in points per game , at 15.9 , and her efficiency has changed dramatically — 48.1 percent from the field , 45.5 from three on nearly four attempts from deep per game .
Collen gave Laney the green light after seeing her dominate early shooting drills in practice .
Her faith has been rewarded .
There ’ s no All-Star Game in 2020 , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ likely be part of it .
And she ’ s not the only one in the WNBA ’ s bubble who has turned a chance to play regularly into a starring role .
Laney joins Washington ’ s Myisha Hines-Allen and Indiana ’ s Julie Allemand as players running with their opportunities in ways few could have predicted at the start of the season .
As Collen pointed out , there ’ s a combination of talent and repetitions at play in the rise of any unexpected new star .
“ When you @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , there ’ s a difference , ” Collen said .
“ I ’ m pretty sure [ Mystics coach ] Mike Thibault knew Hines-Allen was a good player .
I ’ m sure , in practice , they ’ ve seen glimpses .
But sometimes it ’ s hard to get on the court .
… I think that ’ s the beauty of opportunity , not only that you get the minutes but you get the opportunity to play through mistakes.
” Laney has certainly gotten those chances .
Not only @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 25.6 in 2019 to 31.1 so far , she got the go-ahead from Collen to shoot at will , with Williams delayed a couple of games in joining the Dream in Bradenton , Florida , and Atlanta in need of offense .
A similar dynamic has played out for the Mystics , for which Hines-Allen was expected to reside behind headline-grabbing acquisition Tina Charles .
Instead , Charles opted out of the season for medical reasons , and Hines-Allen is scoring 14.8 points per game , good for 15th in the league , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ tied for seventh in the league ) and shooting 52.3 percent from the floor .
Hines-Allen ’ s defense helped get her drafted out of Louisville , with the 19th overall pick in 2018 .
A rugged 6-foot-1 New Jersey product , Hines-Allen can stay with bigger centers , while her lateral quickness allows her to shift down and guard small forwards in bigger Washington lineups .
But once it was clear that Charles and Elena Delle Donne , the 2019 MVP , wouldn ’ t be joining D.C. in Bradenton , Hines-Allen @ @ @ @ @ @ @ skill she ’ s continuously built stateside and overseas .
So sure , the 28.8 minutes per game she is averaging have allowed Hines-Allen to prove herself .
But so too have the conversations with her teammates , Thibault and her other coaches , she said , giving her the confidence to be a more complete version of herself on the court .
“ You get more comfortable with the ball , whether that ’ s inside or outside , ” Hines-Allen said .
“ Like bringing the ball up — you ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that rebound , and the point guard ’ s telling me , you push the ball up.
” This is the result : Absence has also created an opportunity for Belgian import Julie Allemand , who was expected to back up last year ’ s All-Star Game MVP , Erica Wheeler , for Indiana .
But with Wheeler ’ s arrival delayed after testing positive for COVID-19 , Allemand has been asked to step up and lead the Fever offense .
She ’ s been more than up to the task , averaging @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in the league in assists per game at 5.7 and sinking more than half of her three-point attempts .
Her effective field-goal percentage of 68.9 percent would rank , over a full season , as the best mark in WNBA history .
“ She ’ s been a reliable , steady , great leader , ” said Allemand ’ s coach , Marianne Stanley .
“ I expected her to play well .
I just didn ’ t know that we would need her as much as we have this early season .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ have Julie step right in seamlessly into a leadership role on the team.
” If the ultimate measure of a point guard is a team ’ s overall offensive performance , Allemand has exceeded hopes there , too : Indiana is second in the league in offensive rating .
Ultimately , much of this shouldn ’ t be a surprise .
The WNBA has only 140-something roster spots filled , total , and just 12 teams to feature a handful of players with primary roles .
That means , with a huge and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ basketball , there are stars lurking all over WNBA benches , just waiting for the chance to shine .
For her part , Hines-Allen said beyond the opportunities of this season , she also is a far better player than she was when she arrived in the league .
She had some early breakout performances in her rookie season in 2018 — double-doubles in her fourth and fifth games , against then-defending champion Minnesota and would-be champion Seattle — but her consistency came from observing the established players ahead of her in the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ definitely needed to evolve further , ” Hines-Allen said .
“ If you think about it , those are just two games.
” She went on to cite her lesser performance immediately following them — against Phoenix and Brittney Griner — as proof that 2018 Hines-Allen wasn ’ t ready for this level of responsibility .
2020 Hines-Allen is , and she isn ’ t expected to see reduced playing time this year , with Washington playing shorthanded .
As for Atlanta , even though Williams has now joined the team , Collen @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Laney out of the starting lineup .
And when Wheeler finally gets through WNBA COVID-19 protocol and returns to Indiana , it could be difficult for her to push aside Allemand as well .
More responsibility , yes .
Higher expectations , too .
“ ’ I ’ m starting to nitpick , ” Collen said of her approach with Laney .
“ The first game of the season , I had just been happy that she made more good decisions than bad decisions .
Now I ’ m thinking , how are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ going forward so she can still be the best version of herself ?
”

In an Atlanta Dream offseason with plenty of splashy additions, including fourth overall draft pick Chennedy Carter and standout guard Courtney Williams, the signing of Betnijah Laney off waivers did not register much reaction.
Even head coach Nicki Collen said she thought of Laney as more of a substitute energy source, primarily wanting the versatile 6-footer as a defensive option off the bench. This was not an unreasonable viewpoint. Laney shot 36.2 percent from the field in 2019, including 30.3 percent from three, mostly staying on the floor for Pokey Chatman’s 2019 Indiana Fever to slow down opponents.
But so far in 2020, Laney has been one of the best offensive players in the WNBA. She is tied for 10th in the league in points per game, at 15.9, and her efficiency has changed dramatically — 48.1 percent from the field, 45.5 from three on nearly four attempts from deep per game. Collen gave Laney the green light after seeing her dominate early shooting drills in practice. Her faith has been rewarded.
There’s no All-Star Game in 2020, but if there were, Laney would likely be part of it. And she’s not the only one in the WNBA’s bubble who has turned a chance to play regularly into a starring role. Laney joins Washington’s Myisha Hines-Allen and Indiana’s Julie Allemand as players running with their opportunities in ways few could have predicted at the start of the season.
As Collen pointed out, there’s a combination of talent and repetitions at play in the rise of any unexpected new star.
“When you’re thrust into a different role, there’s a difference,” Collen said. “I’m pretty sure [Mystics coach] Mike Thibault knew Hines-Allen was a good player. I’m sure, in practice, they’ve seen glimpses. But sometimes it’s hard to get on the court. … I think that’s the beauty of opportunity, not only that you get the minutes but you get the opportunity to play through mistakes.”
Laney has certainly gotten those chances. Not only has her minutes per game jumped from 25.6 in 2019 to 31.1 so far, she got the go-ahead from Collen to shoot at will, with Williams delayed a couple of games in joining the Dream in Bradenton, Florida, and Atlanta in need of offense.
A similar dynamic has played out for the Mystics, for which Hines-Allen was expected to reside behind headline-grabbing acquisition Tina Charles. Instead, Charles opted out of the season for medical reasons, and Hines-Allen is scoring 14.8 points per game, good for 15th in the league, while grabbing 8.1 rebounds per game (tied for seventh in the league) and shooting 52.3 percent from the floor.
Hines-Allen’s defense helped get her drafted out of Louisville, with the 19th overall pick in 2018. A rugged 6-foot-1 New Jersey product, Hines-Allen can stay with bigger centers, while her lateral quickness allows her to shift down and guard small forwards in bigger Washington lineups.
But once it was clear that Charles and Elena Delle Donne, the 2019 MVP, wouldn’t be joining D.C. in Bradenton, Hines-Allen knew she would get to deploy the skill she’s continuously built stateside and overseas.
So sure, the 28.8 minutes per game she is averaging have allowed Hines-Allen to prove herself. But so too have the conversations with her teammates, Thibault and her other coaches, she said, giving her the confidence to be a more complete version of herself on the court.
“You get more comfortable with the ball, whether that’s inside or outside,” Hines-Allen said. “Like bringing the ball up — you’ll see, I’ll grab that rebound, and the point guard’s telling me, you push the ball up.”
This is the result:
Myisha Hines-Allen has 22 points so far in the first half. @Mooks_22 She averaged 2.3 points per game last year. (via @WashMystics) pic.twitter.com/xhyslNgTjw — WSLAM (@wslam) July 25, 2020
Absence has also created an opportunity for Belgian import Julie Allemand, who was expected to back up last year’s All-Star Game MVP, Erica Wheeler, for Indiana. But with Wheeler’s arrival delayed after testing positive for COVID-19, Allemand has been asked to step up and lead the Fever offense.
She’s been more than up to the task, averaging 32.8 minutes per game, ranking third in the league in assists per game at 5.7 and sinking more than half of her three-point attempts. Her effective field-goal percentage of 68.9 percent would rank, over a full season, as the best mark in WNBA history.
“She’s been a reliable, steady, great leader,” said Allemand’s coach, Marianne Stanley. “I expected her to play well. I just didn’t know that we would need her as much as we have this early season. so it’s been great to have Julie step right in seamlessly into a leadership role on the team.”
If the ultimate measure of a point guard is a team’s overall offensive performance, Allemand has exceeded hopes there, too: Indiana is second in the league in offensive rating.
Ultimately, much of this shouldn’t be a surprise. The WNBA has only 140-something roster spots filled, total, and just 12 teams to feature a handful of players with primary roles. That means, with a huge and growing talent base in women’s basketball, there are stars lurking all over WNBA benches, just waiting for the chance to shine.
For her part, Hines-Allen said beyond the opportunities of this season, she also is a far better player than she was when she arrived in the league. She had some early breakout performances in her rookie season in 2018 — double-doubles in her fourth and fifth games, against then-defending champion Minnesota and would-be champion Seattle — but her consistency came from observing the established players ahead of her in the depth chart as well.
“I definitely needed to evolve further,” Hines-Allen said. “If you think about it, those are just two games.” She went on to cite her lesser performance immediately following them — against Phoenix and Brittney Griner — as proof that 2018 Hines-Allen wasn’t ready for this level of responsibility.
2020 Hines-Allen is, and she isn’t expected to see reduced playing time this year, with Washington playing shorthanded. As for Atlanta, even though Williams has now joined the team, Collen said it would be difficult to take Laney out of the starting lineup. And when Wheeler finally gets through WNBA COVID-19 protocol and returns to Indiana, it could be difficult for her to push aside Allemand as well.
More responsibility, yes. Higher expectations, too.
“’I’m starting to nitpick,” Collen said of her approach with Laney. “The first game of the season, I had just been happy that she made more good decisions than bad decisions. Now I’m thinking, how are we going to correct these little things going forward so she can still be the best version of herself?”


fivethirthyeight--2020-08-14--Russia Approved A COVID Vaccine. Will It Be Available In America?

Russia is the first country to approve a vaccine for COVID-19 — reportedly by speeding through multiple steps in the @ @ @ @ @ , a political scientist from Virginia Commonwealth University , talks about the state of medical @ @ @ @ @ the political implications of this move .
Also , we hear about the people who @ @ @ @ @ for science !
And we discuss a new vaccine from an American biotech company that @ @ @ @ @ results .
Don ’ t want to miss an episode of PODCAST-19 , FiveThirtyEight ’ @ @ @ @ @ we know — and what we know we don ’ t know — about COVID-19 @ @ @ @ @ podcasting app .
For example , here ’ s where to do it on Apple @ @ @ @

Russia is the first country to approve a vaccine for COVID-19 — reportedly by speeding through multiple steps in the testing process. Judy Twigg, a political scientist from Virginia Commonwealth University, talks about the state of medical research in Russia, and the political implications of this move.
Also, we hear about the people who want to get COVID, for science! And we discuss a new vaccine from an American biotech company that’s yielding promising early results.
Don’t want to miss an episode of PODCAST-19, FiveThirtyEight’s weekly look at what we know — and what we know we don’t know — about COVID-19? Subscribe on your favorite podcasting app. For example, here’s where to do it on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.