fivethirthyeight--2020-10-22--Don’t Tell Derrick Henry That Running Backs Don’t Matter

NFL running backs have had a rough go of it recently , with more and more evidence building for the fungibility of the position .
As my colleague Josh Hermsmeyer wrote last week , 2020 has provided even more examples of high-profile RBs being replaced by unheralded backups who don ’ t miss much of a beat .
It ’ s not that running backs do nothing to help their teams win — leaguewide rushing expected points added ( EPA ) per game is currently the highest it ’ s been since at least 2006 — but that rushing success @ @ @ @ @ @ @ much as by the player carrying the ball .
Still , sometimes you have to admire a good , old-fashioned rushing performance in the mold of history ’ s greatest RBs — and that ’ s exactly what Derrick Henry of the Tennessee Titans is giving us this season .
Henry led the NFL in rushing last season with 1,540 yards on the ground ( 102.7 per game ) to go with 16 touchdowns , but he ’ s improving on those numbers so far in 2020 .
After tearing through the Houston @ @ @ @ @ @ @ yards ( ! )
and two touchdowns , Henry is once again leading the league in yards with 588 — or 83 more than any other rusher in football .
If he could keep this up over the full season , Henry ’ s current 117.6 yards-per-game pace would rank 17th all-time , sandwiched between Barry Sanders ’ s 1994 season and Shaun Alexander ’ s 2005 .
We haven ’ t seen a player average so many yards per game in a season since Adrian Peterson did it eight years ago en @ @ @ @ @ @ @ fact , we are unexpectedly witnessing one of the best performances ever by a RB in back-to-back seasons .
Right now , Henry is on pace to become just the 14th player since the 1970 AFL-NFL merger to average more than 100 rushing yards per game in two consecutive seasons , essentially joining a who ’ s-who of great running backs from the era : Before Henry , we hadn ’ t seen a running back pull off the feat since Larry Johnson of the Kansas City Chiefs and Tiki Barber of the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 2005 and 2006 .
And you could have been forgiven for thinking we might not have ever seen it again , as the era of the high-workload primary back has given way to backfield committees and an increased focus on using RBs in the passing game rather than handing them the ball .
Henry ’ s numbers are a throwback to an earlier time , and nobody else is really in the same neighborhood this year .
Among 2020 rushers , only Minnesota ’ s Dalvin Cook ( who missed Week 6 with @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 100 yards per game on the ground ; he ’ s averaging 97.8 , which is 11 more than the next-highest rusher ( Philadelphia ’ s Miles Sanders , who is also injured ) and nearly 20 yards per game behind Henry .
Henry is truly in a class of his own .
And that production is helping Tennessee win games .
The Titans are averaging 2.95 EPA per game on the ground so far this season , according to ESPN ’ s Stats & Information Group , which ranks fourth in the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ England Patriots and Baltimore Ravens .
And they rank second ( behind the Kansas City Chiefs ) in win probability added on the ground .
Henry ’ s blockers deserve credit for that as well ; Tennessee runners are fifth in yards before first contact per rush , with the path being cleared for 3.33 yards per carry before a defender touches the ball carrier .
The passing game has clearly been a huge driver of Tennessee ’ s success , too — QB Ryan Tannehill has the league ’ s fourth-best Total @ @ @ @ @ @ @ rank second ( again , behind K.C . )
in passing EPA per game .
Henry is far from the only reason that Tennessee is tied for the fourth-best Super Bowl odds this season , according to our prediction model .
But the Tannehill-Henry tandem obviously works great together .
Since Tannehill took over as Tennessee ’ s starter in Week 7 of the 2019 season , the Titans are 14-4 ( including the playoffs ) , with Henry averaging 119.9 rushing yards per game — 35.7 more than any other player — @ @ @ @ @ @ @ game off play-action ( which ranks second only to Jared Goff of the L.A. Rams at 98.4 ) .
By keeping defenses guessing as to whether Henry or Tannehill will hurt them , it ’ s no surprise that the Titans are the only team to rank among the top five in offensive EPA per game both through the air and on the ground so far this season .
Week 7 should provide an interesting test for Henry and the Titans , in the form of the Pittsburgh Steelers ’ defense .
Pittsburgh @ @ @ @ @ @ @ overall and first against the run specifically .
Steeler opponents are picking up only 2.03 yards before first contact per run , which could prove an antidote to Tennessee ’ s run-blocking .
But if there ’ s any running back who stands a chance against Pittsburgh ’ s front seven , it ’ s Henry — the closest equivalent the modern game has to the dominating rushers of yesteryear .
Looking ahead : Pittsburgh-Tennessee is Elo ’ s top game of the week , but a close second is New England against @ @ @ @ @ @ @ opposite trajectories — the 49ers had an impressive bounceback win over the Rams last week , while the Patriots suffered an exceedingly rare home loss as a favorite against Denver .
New England is at home again in this one , and the Pats are 24-9 in Foxborough when coming off a loss since 2001 .
But they ’ ll need more from Cam Newton and a moribund passing attack that ranks 28th in EPA per game , against a Niners defense that has slipped in EPA from No .
2 against the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ this year .
On the other side , the Pats are also down a bit defensively , and Jimmy Garoppolo looked healthy again versus L.A. , though our QB ratings still regard him as a middling starter at best .
Maybe Jimmy G. can use this opportunity against his former team to notch a second-straight above-average start for the first time since Week 12 in 2019 .
But we give the Patriots a 54 percent chance to stop the skid here .
Elo ’ s spread : New England -1

NFL running backs have had a rough go of it recently, with more and more evidence building for the fungibility of the position. As my colleague Josh Hermsmeyer wrote last week, 2020 has provided even more examples of high-profile RBs being replaced by unheralded backups who don’t miss much of a beat. It’s not that running backs do nothing to help their teams win — leaguewide rushing expected points added (EPA) per game is currently the highest it’s been since at least 2006 — but that rushing success is dictated by teammates and coaching as much as by the player carrying the ball.
Still, sometimes you have to admire a good, old-fashioned rushing performance in the mold of history’s greatest RBs — and that’s exactly what Derrick Henry of the Tennessee Titans is giving us this season. Henry led the NFL in rushing last season with 1,540 yards on the ground (102.7 per game) to go with 16 touchdowns, but he’s improving on those numbers so far in 2020. After tearing through the Houston Texans’ defense on Sunday for 212 yards (!) and two touchdowns, Henry is once again leading the league in yards with 588 — or 83 more than any other rusher in football.
If he could keep this up over the full season, Henry’s current 117.6 yards-per-game pace would rank 17th all-time, sandwiched between Barry Sanders’s 1994 season and Shaun Alexander’s 2005. We haven’t seen a player average so many yards per game in a season since Adrian Peterson did it eight years ago en route to winning MVP honors.
In fact, we are unexpectedly witnessing one of the best performances ever by a RB in back-to-back seasons. Right now, Henry is on pace to become just the 14th player since the 1970 AFL-NFL merger to average more than 100 rushing yards per game in two consecutive seasons, essentially joining a who’s-who of great running backs from the era:
Henry is in rare two-year rushing company Most rushing yards per game (YPG) in back-to-back seasons among players who averaged at least 100 yards per game in both seasons, 1970-2020 Rushing YPG 2-Year Total Player Seasons Year 1 Year 2 Rush Yds YPG Eric Dickerson 1983-84 113.0 131.6 3,913 122.3 Terrell Davis 1997-98 116.7 125.5 3,758 121.2 O.J. Simpson 1975-76 129.8 107.4 3,320 118.6 Earl Campbell 1979-80 106.1 128.9 3,631 117.1 Shaun Alexander 2004-05 106.0 117.5 3,576 111.8 Barry Sanders 1993-94 101.4 117.7 2,998 111.0 Eric Dickerson 1986-87 113.8 107.3 3,109 111.0 Larry Johnson 2005-06 109.4 111.8 3,539 110.6 Tiki Barber 2005-06 116.3 103.9 3,522 110.1 Edgerrin James 2000-01 106.8 110.3 2,371 107.8 Emmitt Smith 1992-93 107.1 106.1 3,199 106.6 Derrick Henry 2019-20 102.7 117.6 2,128 106.4 Eric Dickerson 1987-88 107.3 103.7 2,947 105.3 LaDainian Tomlinson 2002-03 105.2 102.8 3,328 104.0 Source: Pro-Football-Reference.com
Before Henry, we hadn’t seen a running back pull off the feat since Larry Johnson of the Kansas City Chiefs and Tiki Barber of the New York Giants each did it in 2005 and 2006. And you could have been forgiven for thinking we might not have ever seen it again, as the era of the high-workload primary back has given way to backfield committees and an increased focus on using RBs in the passing game rather than handing them the ball. Henry’s numbers are a throwback to an earlier time, and nobody else is really in the same neighborhood this year. Among 2020 rushers, only Minnesota’s Dalvin Cook (who missed Week 6 with an injury) is even close to 100 yards per game on the ground; he’s averaging 97.8, which is 11 more than the next-highest rusher (Philadelphia’s Miles Sanders, who is also injured) and nearly 20 yards per game behind Henry. Henry is truly in a class of his own.
And that production is helping Tennessee win games. The Titans are averaging 2.95 EPA per game on the ground so far this season, according to ESPN’s Stats & Information Group, which ranks fourth in the NFL behind the Arizona Cardinals, New England Patriots and Baltimore Ravens. And they rank second (behind the Kansas City Chiefs) in win probability added on the ground. Henry’s blockers deserve credit for that as well; Tennessee runners are fifth in yards before first contact per rush, with the path being cleared for 3.33 yards per carry before a defender touches the ball carrier. The passing game has clearly been a huge driver of Tennessee’s success, too — QB Ryan Tannehill has the league’s fourth-best Total QBR this season, and the Titans rank second (again, behind K.C.) in passing EPA per game. Henry is far from the only reason that Tennessee is tied for the fourth-best Super Bowl odds this season, according to our prediction model.
But the Tannehill-Henry tandem obviously works great together. Since Tannehill took over as Tennessee’s starter in Week 7 of the 2019 season, the Titans are 14-4 (including the playoffs), with Henry averaging 119.9 rushing yards per game — 35.7 more than any other player — and Tannehill averaging 97.4 passing yards per game off play-action (which ranks second only to Jared Goff of the L.A. Rams at 98.4). By keeping defenses guessing as to whether Henry or Tannehill will hurt them, it’s no surprise that the Titans are the only team to rank among the top five in offensive EPA per game both through the air and on the ground so far this season.
Week 7 should provide an interesting test for Henry and the Titans, in the form of the Pittsburgh Steelers’ defense. Pittsburgh ranks second in defensive EPA per game overall and first against the run specifically. Steeler opponents are picking up only 2.03 yards before first contact per run, which could prove an antidote to Tennessee’s run-blocking. But if there’s any running back who stands a chance against Pittsburgh’s front seven, it’s Henry — the closest equivalent the modern game has to the dominating rushers of yesteryear.
FiveThirtyEight’s NFL Elo ratings How each team ranks through Week 6 of the 2020 season, according to our quarterback-adjusted predictions Chance To … Rk Team Starting QB QB Rk* Elo Rating Proj. Record Make Playoffs Win Division Win SB 1 Chiefs Mahomes 1 1706 13-3 98% 84% 19% 2 Ravens Jackson 4 1659 12-4 93 47 10 3 Seahawks Wilson 3 1640 12-4 93 68 12 4 Steelers Roethlisberger 10 1636 12-4 93 47 9 5 Titans Tannehill 6 1634 12-4 93 81 9 6 Buccaneers Brady 14 1612 10-6 80 54 8 7 Packers Rodgers 12 1592 11-5 83 49 6 8 Saints Brees 2 1591 9-7 66 38 5 9 Rams Goff 13 1573 9-7 62 15 3 10 Bears Foles 21 1570 11-5 85 48 5 11 49ers Garoppolo 24 1562 8-8 38 6 2 12 Bills Allen 9 1561 10-6 72 63 2 13 Colts Rivers 18 1556 9-7 50 18 2 14 Patriots Newton 17 1544 8-8 42 30 1 15 Raiders Carr 5 1540 9-7 50 12 1 16 Cardinals Murray 7 1534 9-7 52 12 2 17 Browns Mayfield 28 1531 10-6 62 6 1 18 Broncos Lock 32 1504 7-9 20 4 <1 19 Eagles Wentz 22 1476 6-9-1 52 52 <1 20 Falcons Ryan 11 1469 5-11 4 2 <1 21 Texans Watson 8 1460 5-11 4 <1 <1 22 Panthers Bridgewater 15 1456 7-9 18 6 <1 23 Vikings Cousins 23 1455 5-11 6 <1 <1 24 Chargers Herbert 19 1450 6-10 8 <1 <1 25 Lions Stafford 16 1442 7-9 13 2 <1 26 Dolphins Tagovailoa 30 1418 7-9 14 7 <1 27 Bengals Burrow 27 1378 4-11-1 2 <1 <1 28 Cowboys Dalton 29 1367 6-10 27 27 <1 29 Giants Jones 25 1352 4-12 9 9 <1 30 Washington Allen 31 1348 5-11 13 12 <1 31 Jaguars Minshew 20 1323 3-13 <1 <1 <1 32 Jets Darnold✚ 26 1321 2-14 <1 <1 <1 *Ranking among Week 7 starters, according to our QB Elo ratings. ✚ Starter is currently injured and may not play. Simulations as of Oct. 21, 2020. Source: ESPN
Looking ahead: Pittsburgh-Tennessee is Elo’s top game of the week, but a close second is New England against San Francisco. The teams are on opposite trajectories — the 49ers had an impressive bounceback win over the Rams last week, while the Patriots suffered an exceedingly rare home loss as a favorite against Denver. New England is at home again in this one, and the Pats are 24-9 in Foxborough when coming off a loss since 2001. But they’ll need more from Cam Newton and a moribund passing attack that ranks 28th in EPA per game, against a Niners defense that has slipped in EPA from No. 2 against the pass last season to No. 12 this year. On the other side, the Pats are also down a bit defensively, and Jimmy Garoppolo looked healthy again versus L.A., though our QB ratings still regard him as a middling starter at best. Maybe Jimmy G. can use this opportunity against his former team to notch a second-straight above-average start for the first time since Week 12 in 2019. But we give the Patriots a 54 percent chance to stop the skid here. Elo’s spread: New England -1
Check out our latest NFL predictions.


fivethirthyeight--2020-10-23--Presidential Debate, Trump vs. Biden: Live Updates

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fivethirthyeight--2020-10-23--Can You Feed The Hot Hand?

Can You Feed The Hot Hand?

Welcome to The Riddler .
Every week , I offer up problems related to the things we hold dear around here : math , logic and probability .
Two puzzles are presented each week : the Riddler Express for those of you who want something bite-size and the Riddler Classic for those of you in the slow-puzzle movement .
Submit a correct answer for either , and you may get a shoutout in next week ’ s column .
Please wait until Monday to publicly share your answers !
If you need a hint or have a favorite puzzle collecting @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on Twitter .
From Drew Mathieson comes an exploration of basketball ’ s historied hot hand : This season , on the way to winning her fourth WNBA championship in her 17-year career , Sue Bird made approximately 50 percent of her field goal attempts .
Suppose she and Seattle Storm teammate Breanna Stewart are interested in testing whether Bird has a “ hot hand ” — that is , if her chances of making a basket depend on whether or not her previous shot went in .
Bird happens to know that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is always 50 percent , independent of her shooting history , but she agrees to perform an experiment .
In each trial of the experiment , Bird will take three shots , while Stewart will record which shots Bird made or missed .
Stewart will then look at all the trials that had at least one shot that was preceded by a made shot .
She will randomly pick one of these trials and then randomly pick a shot that was preceded by a made shot .
( If there was only one @ @ @ @ @ @ @ will choose that shot . )
What is the probability that Bird made the shot that Stewart picked ?
Now that LeBron James and Anthony Davis have restored the Los Angeles Lakers to glory with their recent victory in the NBA Finals , suppose they decide to play a game of sudden-death , one-on-one basketball .
They ’ ll flip a coin to see which of them has first possession , and whoever makes the first basket wins the game .
Both players have a 50 percent chance of making any shot they @ @ @ @ @ @ @ superior rebounder and will always rebound any shot that either of them misses .
Every time Davis rebounds the ball , he dribbles back to the three-point line before attempting another shot .
Before each of Davis ’ s shot attempts , James has a probability p of stealing the ball and regaining possession before Davis can get the shot off .
What value of p makes this an evenly matched game of one-on-one , so that both players have an equal chance of winning before the coin is flipped ?
Congratulations to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Texas , winner of last week ’ s Riddler Express .
Last week , the residents of Riddler City were electing a mayor from among three candidates .
The winner was the candidate who received an outright majority ( i.e.
, more than 50 percent of the vote ) .
But if no one achieved this outright majority , there would be a runoff election among the top two candidates .
If the voting shares of each candidate were uniformly distributed between 0 percent and 100 percent ( subject to the constraint that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of course ) , then what was the probability of a runoff ?
The “ uniformly distributed ” wording in the problem was ambiguous and was interpreted several ways by readers .
How can you randomly choose three numbers between 0 and 100 that add up to 100 ?
Here , I will write about three popular interpretations .
First , imagine randomly picking three values between 0 and 100 , and call them x , y and z .
Each choice of ( x , y , z ) corresponded to a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ by 100 by 100 .
But only some points in this cube had coordinates that summed to 100 — those that also lay on the plane x+y+z = 100 .
This intersection between a cube and a plane might have been hard to visualize — it was an equilateral triangle ( shown below ) .
If you divided this triangle into quarters , then three of those quarters had one value ( x , y or z ) that exceeded 50 .
That meant the probability of a runoff , with no voting @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
That was one interpretation .
Another way to “ uniformly ” pick three values was to draw a number line between 0 and 100 and break it into three segments by randomly picking two points , a and b .
Assuming b was greater than a , the three lengths that summed to 100 were a , b−a and 100−b .
The challenge was to find when each of these three values exceeded 50 inside the triangle defined by 0 ≤ a ≤ b ≤ 100 .
Each of the three inequalities @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 50 and 100−b ≥ 50 ) carved out a quarter of the larger triangle .
And so , once again , that meant the probability of a runoff was 1/4 .
Yet another way to “ uniformly ” pick three values was to go ahead and pick three numbers between 0 and 100 ( again , let ’ s call them x , y and z ) and then “ normalize ” them — that is , divide each number by x+y+z and multiply by 100 , so that they were guaranteed to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , each choice of ( x , y , z ) corresponded to a point in a cube .
But this time , to avoid a runoff , you needed one of the values to exceed the sum of the other two , meaning it would exceed 50 percent of the sum of all three numbers .
There were three regions in the cube where a runoff would not occur : x > y+z , y > x+z and z > x+y .
Each region made up one-sixth of the cube , so @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , as shown below .
In the other half , a runoff was necessary .
So according to this interpretation of the problem , the answer was 1/2 .
( Some solvers , like Benjamin Dickman , noted that this approach was identical to finding the probability that three lengths from a random , uniform distribution satisfy the triangle inequality . )
For extra credit , you wanted the probability of a runoff when there were N candidates instead of three .
Once again , the answer depended on your interpretation of the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , this general solution was 1−N/2N−1 ( nicely explained by Josh Silverman ) , since each of the N candidates had a 1/2N−1 chance of winning an outright majority .
Similarly , based on the second interpretation , the answer was again 1−N/2N−1 .
But based on the third interpretation , the answer was 1−1/ ( N−1 ) !
.
That ’ ll do it for Riddler City ’ s mayoral election .
Don ’ t forget to vote in any other elections that may be happening !
Congratulations to 👏 Asher S. @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of last week ’ s Riddler Classic .
Last week , you were playing a modified version of “ The Price is Right.
” In this version ’ s bidding round , you and two ( not three ) other contestants had to guess the price of an item , one at a time .
The true price of this item was a randomly selected real number between 0 and 100 .
Among the three contestants , the winner was whoever guessed the closest price without going over .
For example , if @ @ @ @ @ @ @ guessed 30 , while another contestant guessed 20 , then they would be the winner even though your guess was technically closer .
In the event all three guesses exceeded the actual price , the contestant who had made the lowest ( and therefore closest ) guess was declared the winner .
If you were the first to guess , and all contestants played optimally ( taking full advantage of the guesses of those who had gone before them ) , what were your chances of winning ?
At first , this three-player @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the first to guess , you would want to know what the second and third players ’ strategies would be .
But their strategies depended on yours and on each other ’ s .
Was there any way out of this mess ?
Indeed there was .
One approach was to work backwards .
Suppose you ( the first player ) guessed a price A and the second player guessed a price B .
What should the third player do ?
For now , let ’ s assume A was less than B @ @ @ @ @ @ @ from among three options : • Guess a value of zero , in which case they ’ d win if the true price was between 0 and A — a range of A .
• Guess a value infinitesimally greater than A , in which case they ’ d win if the true price was between A and B — a range of B−A .
• Guess a value infinitesimally greater than B , in which case they ’ d win if the true price was between B and 100 — a range @ @ @ @ @ @ @ three values should the third player guess ?
Whichever corresponded to the greatest range .
( If A had been greater than B , there would again be three options , but with A and B reversed . )
So for any combination of A and B , the third player ’ s strategy was known .
Next , it was time to look more closely at the second player .
For each value of A , the second player could figure out their chances of winning for any B they picked , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ player would do given A and B .
For each A , the second player would then pick a B that maximized their own chances of winning .
At last , we ’ re back to you , the first player .
By now , you knew exactly what the second and third players would do in response to any guess A .
As with the second player , that meant you had to pick the value that maximized your own chances of winning .
Amidst all this strategizing , I neglected to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
In the end , your best guess was two-thirds of 100 ( ~66.7 ) .
Then the second player ’ s best move was to guess one-third of 100 ( ~33.3 ) , and the third player ’ s best move was to guess anything less than that ( e.g.
, zero ) .
All players had a one-third chance of winning .
If you deviated from these optimal values , the second and third players would both have the advantage over you , each with a greater than one-third chance of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ have guessed a price that was one-third of 100 .
But as Emma Knight observed , Player 2 could then have guessed anything less than that and Player 3 slightly more .
That would have meant Player 2 still had a one-third chance of winning , while Player 3 ’ s chances went up to two-thirds , leaving you with nothing .
Player 2 might not have chosen to sabotage your hopes of winning , but why leave it to chance ?
Finally , Keith Wynroe of Edinburgh , Scotland offered a neat @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the three players ’ strategies might change if the goal was not simply maximizing one ’ s chances of winning , but rather maximizing the expected value of the prize won .
According to Keith , while this shift would incentivize all three players to bet higher values , no one ’ s chances of winning actually changed .
After all was said and done , it turned out to be a fair game .
How sweet .
Well , aren ’ t you lucky ?
There ’ s a whole book full @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and some never-before-seen head-scratchers .
It ’ s called “ The Riddler , ” and it ’ s in stores now !

Welcome to The Riddler. Every week, I offer up problems related to the things we hold dear around here: math, logic and probability. Two puzzles are presented each week: the Riddler Express for those of you who want something bite-size and the Riddler Classic for those of you in the slow-puzzle movement. Submit a correct answer for either, and you may get a shoutout in next week’s column. Please wait until Monday to publicly share your answers! If you need a hint or have a favorite puzzle collecting dust in your attic, find me on Twitter.
Riddler Express
From Drew Mathieson comes an exploration of basketball’s historied hot hand:
This season, on the way to winning her fourth WNBA championship in her 17-year career, Sue Bird made approximately 50 percent of her field goal attempts. Suppose she and Seattle Storm teammate Breanna Stewart are interested in testing whether Bird has a “hot hand” — that is, if her chances of making a basket depend on whether or not her previous shot went in. Bird happens to know that her chances of making any given shot is always 50 percent, independent of her shooting history, but she agrees to perform an experiment.
In each trial of the experiment, Bird will take three shots, while Stewart will record which shots Bird made or missed. Stewart will then look at all the trials that had at least one shot that was immediately preceded by a made shot. She will randomly pick one of these trials and then randomly pick a shot that was preceded by a made shot. (If there was only one such shot to pick from, she will choose that shot.)
What is the probability that Bird made the shot that Stewart picked?
The solution to this Riddler Express can be found in the following week’s column.
Riddler Classic
Now that LeBron James and Anthony Davis have restored the Los Angeles Lakers to glory with their recent victory in the NBA Finals, suppose they decide to play a game of sudden-death, one-on-one basketball. They’ll flip a coin to see which of them has first possession, and whoever makes the first basket wins the game.
Both players have a 50 percent chance of making any shot they take. However, Davis is the superior rebounder and will always rebound any shot that either of them misses. Every time Davis rebounds the ball, he dribbles back to the three-point line before attempting another shot.
Before each of Davis’s shot attempts, James has a probability p of stealing the ball and regaining possession before Davis can get the shot off. What value of p makes this an evenly matched game of one-on-one, so that both players have an equal chance of winning before the coin is flipped?
The solution to this Riddler Classic can be found in the following week’s column.
Solution to last week’s Riddler Express
Congratulations to 👏 Frank Probst 👏 of Houston, Texas, winner of last week’s Riddler Express.
Last week, the residents of Riddler City were electing a mayor from among three candidates. The winner was the candidate who received an outright majority (i.e., more than 50 percent of the vote). But if no one achieved this outright majority, there would be a runoff election among the top two candidates.
If the voting shares of each candidate were uniformly distributed between 0 percent and 100 percent (subject to the constraint that they add up to 100 percent, of course), then what was the probability of a runoff?
The “uniformly distributed” wording in the problem was ambiguous and was interpreted several ways by readers. How can you randomly choose three numbers between 0 and 100 that add up to 100? Here, I will write about three popular interpretations.
First, imagine randomly picking three values between 0 and 100, and call them x, y and z. Each choice of (x, y, z) corresponded to a point in a cube that measured 100 by 100 by 100. But only some points in this cube had coordinates that summed to 100 — those that also lay on the plane x+y+z = 100. This intersection between a cube and a plane might have been hard to visualize — it was an equilateral triangle (shown below). If you divided this triangle into quarters, then three of those quarters had one value (x, y or z) that exceeded 50. That meant the probability of a runoff, with no voting shares that exceeded 50, was 1/4.
That was one interpretation. Another way to “uniformly” pick three values was to draw a number line between 0 and 100 and break it into three segments by randomly picking two points, a and b. Assuming b was greater than a, the three lengths that summed to 100 were a, b−a and 100−b. The challenge was to find when each of these three values exceeded 50 inside the triangle defined by 0 ≤ a ≤ b ≤ 100. Each of the three inequalities (a ≥ 50, b−a ≥ 50 and 100−b ≥ 50) carved out a quarter of the larger triangle. And so, once again, that meant the probability of a runoff was 1/4.
Yet another way to “uniformly” pick three values was to go ahead and pick three numbers between 0 and 100 (again, let’s call them x, y and z) and then “normalize” them — that is, divide each number by x+y+z and multiply by 100, so that they were guaranteed to add up to 100. Like before, each choice of (x, y, z) corresponded to a point in a cube. But this time, to avoid a runoff, you needed one of the values to exceed the sum of the other two, meaning it would exceed 50 percent of the sum of all three numbers. There were three regions in the cube where a runoff would not occur: x > y+z, y > x+z and z > x+y. Each region made up one-sixth of the cube, so all together they represented half the cube, as shown below. In the other half, a runoff was necessary. So according to this interpretation of the problem, the answer was 1/2. (Some solvers, like Benjamin Dickman, noted that this approach was identical to finding the probability that three lengths from a random, uniform distribution satisfy the triangle inequality.)
Breaking cubes apart for #ThisWeeksRiddler's write-up. My simplex animation game is weak, so sticking with tetrahedra for now. pic.twitter.com/6STPVlPYpW — Zach Wissner-Gross (@xaqwg) October 22, 2020
For extra credit, you wanted the probability of a runoff when there were N candidates instead of three. Once again, the answer depended on your interpretation of the problem. Based on the first interpretation, this general solution was 1−N/2N−1 (nicely explained by Josh Silverman), since each of the N candidates had a 1/2N−1 chance of winning an outright majority. Similarly, based on the second interpretation, the answer was again 1−N/2N−1. But based on the third interpretation, the answer was 1−1/(N−1)!.
That’ll do it for Riddler City’s mayoral election. Don’t forget to vote in any other elections that may be happening!
Solution to last week’s Riddler Classic
Congratulations to 👏 Asher S. 👏 of Chicago, Illinois, winner of last week’s Riddler Classic.
Last week, you were playing a modified version of “The Price is Right.” In this version’s bidding round, you and two (not three) other contestants had to guess the price of an item, one at a time.
The true price of this item was a randomly selected real number between 0 and 100. Among the three contestants, the winner was whoever guessed the closest price without going over. For example, if the true price was 29 and you guessed 30, while another contestant guessed 20, then they would be the winner even though your guess was technically closer.
In the event all three guesses exceeded the actual price, the contestant who had made the lowest (and therefore closest) guess was declared the winner.
If you were the first to guess, and all contestants played optimally (taking full advantage of the guesses of those who had gone before them), what were your chances of winning?
At first, this three-player game might have seemed unsolvable. As the first to guess, you would want to know what the second and third players’ strategies would be. But their strategies depended on yours and on each other’s. Was there any way out of this mess?
Indeed there was. One approach was to work backwards. Suppose you (the first player) guessed a price A and the second player guessed a price B. What should the third player do? For now, let’s assume A was less than B. The third player would then choose from among three options:
Guess a value of zero, in which case they’d win if the true price was between 0 and A — a range of A .
— a range of . Guess a value infinitesimally greater than A, in which case they’d win if the true price was between A and B — a range of B − A .
and — a range of − . Guess a value infinitesimally greater than B, in which case they’d win if the true price was between B and 100 — a range of 100−B.
But which of the three values should the third player guess? Whichever corresponded to the greatest range. (If A had been greater than B, there would again be three options, but with A and B reversed.)
So for any combination of A and B, the third player’s strategy was known. Next, it was time to look more closely at the second player.
For each value of A, the second player could figure out their chances of winning for any B they picked, since they now knew what the third player would do given A and B. For each A, the second player would then pick a B that maximized their own chances of winning.
At last, we’re back to you, the first player. By now, you knew exactly what the second and third players would do in response to any guess A. As with the second player, that meant you had to pick the value that maximized your own chances of winning.
Amidst all this strategizing, I neglected to mention just what these optimal guesses were. In the end, your best guess was two-thirds of 100 (~66.7). Then the second player’s best move was to guess one-third of 100 (~33.3), and the third player’s best move was to guess anything less than that (e.g., zero). All players had a one-third chance of winning. If you deviated from these optimal values, the second and third players would both have the advantage over you, each with a greater than one-third chance of winning.
Some solvers said they would have guessed a price that was one-third of 100. But as Emma Knight observed, Player 2 could then have guessed anything less than that and Player 3 slightly more. That would have meant Player 2 still had a one-third chance of winning, while Player 3’s chances went up to two-thirds, leaving you with nothing. Player 2 might not have chosen to sabotage your hopes of winning, but why leave it to chance?
Finally, Keith Wynroe of Edinburgh, Scotland offered a neat extension to this problem, asking how the three players’ strategies might change if the goal was not simply maximizing one’s chances of winning, but rather maximizing the expected value of the prize won. According to Keith, while this shift would incentivize all three players to bet higher values, no one’s chances of winning actually changed.
Turns out yes! (I think). The curves look kinda similar but clearly it looks smarter to bid higher – intuitively we can be greedier with our bid because "under-cutting" is less appealing on EV terms, so we can go higher before we stop being the min bin 3/n pic.twitter.com/XvHsUi1dad — Keith Wynroe (@keithwynroe) October 19, 2020
After all was said and done, it turned out to be a fair game. How sweet.
Want more riddles?
Well, aren’t you lucky? There’s a whole book full of the best puzzles from this column and some never-before-seen head-scratchers. It’s called “The Riddler,” and it’s in stores now!
Want to submit a riddle?
Email Zach Wissner-Gross at riddlercolumn@gmail.com


fivethirthyeight--2020-10-23--Politics Podcast: The Last Debate Is Over And The Final Stage Of The Campaign Has Begun

Now that the last presidential debate is over , there are no major set pieces remaining in the 2020 campaign @ @ @ @ @ the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast , the crew reviews what happened in the debate and considers @ @ @ @ @ campaign could hold in store .

Politics Podcast: The Last Debate Is Over And The Final Stage Of The Campaign Has Begun
Now that the last presidential debate is over, there are no major set pieces remaining in the 2020 campaign. In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the crew reviews what happened in the debate and considers what the rest of the campaign could hold in store.


fivethirthyeight--2020-10-23--The Issues That Divide People Within Each Party

Welcome to Pollapalooza , our weekly polling roundup .
There is no shortage of issues that divide Democrats and Republicans — the presidential election , the Supreme Court confirmation vote , etc .
But let ’ s spend a little time today looking at issues that split voters within the two parties .
These issues are likely to come to the foreground after the election is over .
If Republicans lose races for the presidency , U.S. Senate and some state legislatures — as seems likely right now — there will be a debate within the GOP about how to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ newly empowered Democrats would have to figure out which policies they want to advance first .
On the other hand , if Democrats lose the presidential election ( and it ’ s clear that the election was conducted fairly ) , we are likely to see a Super Bowl of recriminations , told-ya-so essays and infighting over how the party lost an election against such an unpopular president .
President Trump and a victorious Republican Party would have to set a second-term agenda — a task complicated enough that the party opted against @ @ @ @ @ @ @ year ’ s conventions .
So which issues divide Democrats , and which ones divide Republicans ?
Two polls released this week , one conducted by the New York Times and Siena College and the other by PRRI , a nonpartisan organization that focuses on the intersection of religion , culture and public policy , provide some fresh answers .
• A national mandate for a coronavirus vaccine : 47 percent of Democrats supported a national mandate to take a COVID-19 vaccine if one is approved by the Food and Drug Administration , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the New York Times/Siena poll of likely voters , which was conducted Oct. 15 to 18 .
This is an unpopular idea with the broader American public — only 18 percent of Republicans voters and 32 percent of likely voters overall supported such a mandate , according to the poll .
• A more liberal presidential nominee : About 45 percent of adults who identify as Democrats or Democratic-leaning independents said that they had initially favored Sen. Bernie Sanders ( 31 percent ) or Sen. Elizabeth Warren ( 14 percent ) during the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , which was conducted Sept. 9-22 .
Twenty-eight percent said they had preferred Joe Biden , 10 percent said former South Bend , Indiana , Mayor Pete Buttigieg , 6 percent said former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg , 4 percent said Sen. Amy Klobuchar , 2 percent said Tom Steyer , and 4 percent said someone else .
( The poll did not ask respondents about candidates who dropped out earlier in the primary process , such as Sen. Kamala Harris . )
Democratic voters are firmly behind Biden in his @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a sizeable bloc in the party who favored more liberal candidates , and divisions between this more liberal bloc and the party ’ s more centrist bloc are likely to emerge if Democrats have total control of Washington next year — or even if Democrats control the presidency and the House .
• Reparations : Exactly half of Democrats ( 50 percent ) said they supported economically compensating African Americans who are the descendants of enslaved people , and almost exactly half ( 49 percent ) opposed this idea , according to PRRI @ @ @ @ @ @ @ more broadly — only 27 percent of Americans , including 5 percent of Republicans , supported reparations .
• Religion : 46 percent of Democrats said they felt that religion causes more problems in society than it solves , while 53 percent of Democrats disagreed with that sentiment .
Only 38 percent of Americans overall said that religion creates more problems than it solves , compared to 61 percent who disagreed with that sentiment , including 79 percent of Republicans .
• Trump ’ s speech and behavior : 46 percent of Republicans @ @ @ @ @ @ @ speech and behavior was “ consistent with previous presidents , ” compared to 53 percent who disagreed , per PRRI .
That was a popular sentiment with the broader public — 68 percent of American adults and 84 percent of Democrats wished Trump acted more like his predecessors .
• A public health insurance option : 45 percent of Republicans supported a government-operated health insurance plan that all Americans could enroll in , while 47 percent opposed this idea , according to the New York Times/Siena poll .
This was also a popular @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , including 87 percent of Democrats , supported a public option .
• State and local government policies to limit the spread of COVID-19 , such as requirements to wear masks : 56 percent of Republicans said state and local governments are taking “ reasonable steps to protect people , ” while 43 percent said those moves are “ unreasonable attempts to control people , ” per PRRI .
These policies were broadly popular — 76 percent of Americans , including 94 percent of Democrats , said state and local governments were taking @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Deal : 46 percent of Republicans opposed a “ $ 2 trillion plan to increase the use of renewable energy and build energy-efficient infrastructure , ” and 45 percent of Republicans supported it , according to the New York Times/Siena survey .
The question referred neither to Biden nor to the “ Green New Deal.
” ( The former vice president has a $ 2 trillion proposal that focuses on both improving America ’ s infrastructure and reducing the nation ’ s use of fossil fuels .
It ’ s basically a shrunken-down @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ) It ’ s quite possible that support for this proposal would be much lower among Republicans if the question cast it as , say , “ Joe Biden ’ s version of the Green New Deal.
” But it ’ s interesting that the concept of a more modest Green New Deal is not that unpopular with Republicans .
Sixty-six percent of Americans , including 89 percent of Democrats , supported this idea .
• Getting a COVID-19 vaccine : 54 percent of Republicans said they would “ probably ” or “ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ if it were approved by the FDA , and 40 percent said they “ probably ” or “ definitely ” would not get it , per the New York Times/Siena survey .
Sixty-one percent of Americans , including 69 percent of Democrats , said they would “ probably ” or “ definitely ” get the vaccine .
• The levels of discrimination Black and Hispanic Americans face : About half of Republicans ( 52 percent ) said that Black Americans face “ a lot ” of discrimation , and about half ( 47 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ t , per PRRI .
Forty-five percent of Republicans agreed that Hispanic Americans face a lot of discrimation , compared to 53 percent who disagreed .
Most Americans overall ( 75 percent ) and Democrats ( 92 percent ) said that Black Americans face a lot of discrimination .
The numbers were similar but slightly lower for discrimination against Hispanic Americans : 69 percent of Americans and 86 percent of Democrats said that they face a lot of discrimination .
• Immigration policy : Republicans are about equally split on allowing the separation @ @ @ @ @ @ @ percent supported , 53 percent opposed ) , protecting people who were brought to the U.S. as children but are not citizens from deportation ( 45 percent supported , 54 percent opposed ) and creating a pathway to citizenship for undocumented immigrants ( 48 percent supported such a pathway , 38 percent said they should be deported , and 14 percent said they should be allowed to become legal residents but not become citizens ) .
A clear majority of Americans overall opposed separating families at the border ( 76 percent ) and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ percent ) , as well as granting legal resident status to immigrants who would benefit from either the DREAM Act or DACA , commonly referred to as “ Dreamers ” ( 66 percent ) .
• A universal basic income : 52 percent of Republicans supported guaranteeing all Americans a minimum income , compared to 48 percent who opposed such an idea , per PRRI .
Seventy percent of Americans overall , including 88 percent of Democrats , supported a UBI .
You may have noticed both that there are more dividing issues @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and that there are a lot of ideas that split the Republican Party but are fairly popular among Americans .
Part of that may be the nature of these surveys — a different set of questions might have found more splits among Democrats .
But there ’ s an important explanation that gets at the parties ’ divergent strategies .
Pollsters usually ask about ideas that are part of the current political discourse , which usually means that major politicians or activists are talking about them , but that they aren ’ t @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Nancy Pelosi , in particular , tend to campaign on and try to pass ideas that they know are fairly popular with the public , so it ’ s not surprising that there are lots of potential Biden administration proposals — such as a public health insurance option — that basically all Democratic voters and even some Republican voters are on board with .
This Democratic approach makes sense electorally — it helps explain why the party is likely to win the popular vote in 2020 and has done so in most recent @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Leader Mitch McConnell and Trump are more willing than Biden and Pelosi to push controversial policies ( such as separating children from their families at the U.S.-Mexico border ) and oppose popular ones ( the protection from deportation for “ Dreamers ” that was enacted under President Obama ) .
So that explains why a lot of fairly popular ideas aren ’ t already law .
This approach is more electorally risky than the Democratic one but sometimes pays dividends in terms of policy : Trump has limited immigration much more than he @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and executed ideas popular with the broader American public .
• 62 percent of likely voters believe that government-imposed limits on the number of people who can attend in-person gatherings — including at churches — amid the coronavirus outbreak are constitutional , according to a recent poll from the left-leaning Data for Progress ; 29 percent said that subjecting churches to those limits impinges on religious liberties .
• 57 percent of likely voters think the Affordable Care Act should be upheld by the Supreme Court even though the law ’ s mandate @ @ @ @ @ @ @ effectively eliminated , according to that same survey .
About 1 in 3 likely voters ( 32 percent ) , including 53 percent of Republicans , think the ACA should be scrapped in light of the mandate change .
• 77 percent of registered voters said that the outcome of this year ’ s presidential election matters to them more than it has previous presidential elections , according to a September Gallup poll .
That 77 percent is higher than for any previous presidential election going back to 1996 in Gallup ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 74 percent in 2008 . )
In this year ’ s survey , 85 percent of Democrats , 79 percent of Republicans and 69 percent of independents said that this election matters more than previous ones .
• 69 percent of likely voters , including 54 percent of Republicans , think that it will take more than a year for the U.S. economy to recover from the COVID-19 outbreak , according to a recent poll conducted by Global Strategy Group and North Star Opinion Research on behalf of the Financial Times and the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a third ( 31 percent ) of Americans think the economy will recover within a year .
• The same survey found that people are almost evenly split on whether Trump ’ s policies have helped the economy : 44 percent of people said his policies helped , compared to 46 who said they had hurt the economy .
• 53 percent of adults ages 18-30 want Biden to win the election , 23 percent favor Trump , and a large bloc ( 17 percent ) said they weren ’ t sure , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
A majority ( 57 percent ) of those surveyed said that they don ’ t feel represented by either party , compared to 28 percent who disagreed with that sentiment .
These young voters are supportive of free COVID-19 testing for all Americans ( 85 percent ) , Medicare for All ( 68 percent ) and the Black Lives Matter movement ( 64 percent ) .
They are not as supportive of the Green New Deal ( 41 percent ) , limiting abortions after the first trimester ( 35 percent ) and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ border ( 26 percent ) .
• 61 percent of U.S. adults said they know someone who has tested positive for COVID-19 , according to an Axios/Ipsos poll conducted Oct. 16-19 , while only 38 percent said they did not .
This is a big jump from early March , when only 4 percent of Americans said they knew someone who had tested positive for the virus , and even mid-July , when 41 percent knew someone who ’ d tested positive .
More than 1 in 5 Americans ( 22 percent ) @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of the virus , while 78 percent said they do not .
According to FiveThirtyEight ’ s presidential approval tracker , 42.5 percent of Americans approve of the job Trump is doing as president , while 52.8 percent disapprove ( a net approval rating of -11.2 points ) .
At this time last week , 42.7 percent approved and 54.3 percent disapproved ( for a net approval rating of -11.6 points ) .
One month ago , Trump had an approval rating of 42.7 percent and a disapproval rating of 53.0 percent , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ points .
In our average of polls of the generic congressional ballot , Democrats currently lead by 7.4 percentage points ( 49.4 percent to 42.0 percent ) .
A week ago , Democrats led Republicans by 7 points ( 48.9 percent to 41.9 percent ) .
At this time last month , voters preferred Democrats by 6.3 points ( 48.7 percent to 42.3 percent ) .
Check out all the polls we ’ ve been collecting ahead of the 2020 elections .

Perry Bacon Jr. (perry.bacon@fivethirtyeight.com)

Welcome to Pollapalooza, our weekly polling roundup.
Poll(s) of the week
There is no shortage of issues that divide Democrats and Republicans — the presidential election, the Supreme Court confirmation vote, etc. But let’s spend a little time today looking at issues that split voters within the two parties.
These issues are likely to come to the foreground after the election is over. If Republicans lose races for the presidency, U.S. Senate and some state legislatures — as seems likely right now — there will be a debate within the GOP about how to get back in power. Meanwhile, newly empowered Democrats would have to figure out which policies they want to advance first. On the other hand, if Democrats lose the presidential election (and it’s clear that the election was conducted fairly), we are likely to see a Super Bowl of recriminations, told-ya-so essays and infighting over how the party lost an election against such an unpopular president. President Trump and a victorious Republican Party would have to set a second-term agenda — a task complicated enough that the party opted against releasing an updated platform ahead of this year’s conventions.
Fewer undecided voters is good news for Biden in the Midwest| FiveThirtyEight
So which issues divide Democrats, and which ones divide Republicans? Two polls released this week, one conducted by the New York Times and Siena College and the other by PRRI, a nonpartisan organization that focuses on the intersection of religion, culture and public policy, provide some fresh answers.
[Live Updates: We’re Tracking The Vote And Voting Problems]
Issues that divide Democrats
A national mandate for a coronavirus vaccine: 47 percent of Democrats supported a national mandate to take a COVID-19 vaccine if one is approved by the Food and Drug Administration, and 48 percent opposed it, per the New York Times/Siena poll of likely voters, which was conducted Oct. 15 to 18. This is an unpopular idea with the broader American public — only 18 percent of Republicans voters and 32 percent of likely voters overall supported such a mandate, according to the poll.
47 percent of Democrats supported a national mandate to take a COVID-19 vaccine if one is approved by the Food and Drug Administration, and 48 percent opposed it, per the New York Times/Siena poll of likely voters, which was conducted Oct. 15 to 18. This is an unpopular idea with the broader American public — only 18 percent of Republicans voters and 32 percent of likely voters overall supported such a mandate, according to the poll. A more liberal presidential nominee: About 45 percent of adults who identify as Democrats or Democratic-leaning independents said that they had initially favored Sen. Bernie Sanders (31 percent) or Sen. Elizabeth Warren (14 percent) during the Democratic primary, per the PRRI survey, which was conducted Sept. 9-22. Twenty-eight percent said they had preferred Joe Biden, 10 percent said former South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg, 6 percent said former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg, 4 percent said Sen. Amy Klobuchar, 2 percent said Tom Steyer, and 4 percent said someone else. (The poll did not ask respondents about candidates who dropped out earlier in the primary process, such as Sen. Kamala Harris.)
Democratic voters are firmly behind Biden in his race against Trump. But there is a sizeable bloc in the party who favored more liberal candidates, and divisions between this more liberal bloc and the party’s more centrist bloc are likely to emerge if Democrats have total control of Washington next year — or even if Democrats control the presidency and the House.
About 45 percent of adults who identify as Democrats or Democratic-leaning independents said that they had initially favored Sen. Bernie Sanders (31 percent) or Sen. Elizabeth Warren (14 percent) during the Democratic primary, per the PRRI survey, which was conducted Sept. 9-22. Twenty-eight percent said they had preferred Joe Biden, 10 percent said former South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg, 6 percent said former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg, 4 percent said Sen. Amy Klobuchar, 2 percent said Tom Steyer, and 4 percent said someone else. (The poll did not ask respondents about candidates who dropped out earlier in the primary process, such as Sen. Kamala Harris.) Democratic voters are firmly behind Biden in his race against Trump. But there is a sizeable bloc in the party who favored more liberal candidates, and divisions between this more liberal bloc and the party’s more centrist bloc are likely to emerge if Democrats have total control of Washington next year — or even if Democrats control the presidency and the House. Reparations: Exactly half of Democrats (50 percent) said they supported economically compensating African Americans who are the descendants of enslaved people, and almost exactly half (49 percent) opposed this idea, according to PRRI. This is an unpopular idea, more broadly — only 27 percent of Americans, including 5 percent of Republicans, supported reparations.
Exactly half of Democrats (50 percent) said they supported economically compensating African Americans who are the descendants of enslaved people, and almost exactly half (49 percent) opposed this idea, according to PRRI. This is an unpopular idea, more broadly — only 27 percent of Americans, including 5 percent of Republicans, supported reparations. Religion: 46 percent of Democrats said they felt that religion causes more problems in society than it solves, while 53 percent of Democrats disagreed with that sentiment. Only 38 percent of Americans overall said that religion creates more problems than it solves, compared to 61 percent who disagreed with that sentiment, including 79 percent of Republicans.
Issues that divide Republicans
Trump’s speech and behavior: 46 percent of Republicans said they wished that Trump’s speech and behavior was “consistent with previous presidents,” compared to 53 percent who disagreed, per PRRI. That was a popular sentiment with the broader public — 68 percent of American adults and 84 percent of Democrats wished Trump acted more like his predecessors.
46 percent of Republicans said they wished that Trump’s speech and behavior was “consistent with previous presidents,” compared to 53 percent who disagreed, per PRRI. That was a popular sentiment with the broader public — 68 percent of American adults and 84 percent of Democrats wished Trump acted more like his predecessors. A public health insurance option : 45 percent of Republicans supported a government-operated health insurance plan that all Americans could enroll in, while 47 percent opposed this idea, according to the New York Times/Siena poll. This was also a popular idea overall — 67 percent of Americans, including 87 percent of Democrats, supported a public option.
: 45 percent of Republicans supported a government-operated health insurance plan that all Americans could enroll in, while 47 percent opposed this idea, according to the New York Times/Siena poll. This was also a popular idea overall — 67 percent of Americans, including 87 percent of Democrats, supported a public option. State and local government policies to limit the spread of COVID-19, such as requirements to wear masks : 56 percent of Republicans said state and local governments are taking “reasonable steps to protect people,” while 43 percent said those moves are “unreasonable attempts to control people,” per PRRI. These policies were broadly popular — 76 percent of Americans, including 94 percent of Democrats, said state and local governments were taking reasonable steps.
: 56 percent of Republicans said state and local governments are taking “reasonable steps to protect people,” while 43 percent said those moves are “unreasonable attempts to control people,” per PRRI. These policies were broadly popular — 76 percent of Americans, including 94 percent of Democrats, said state and local governments were taking reasonable steps. A mini-Green New Deal: 46 percent of Republicans opposed a “$2 trillion plan to increase the use of renewable energy and build energy-efficient infrastructure,” and 45 percent of Republicans supported it, according to the New York Times/Siena survey. The question referred neither to Biden nor to the “Green New Deal.” (The former vice president has a $2 trillion proposal that focuses on both improving America’s infrastructure and reducing the nation’s use of fossil fuels. It’s basically a shrunken-down version of the Green New Deal.) It’s quite possible that support for this proposal would be much lower among Republicans if the question cast it as, say, “Joe Biden’s version of the Green New Deal.” But it’s interesting that the concept of a more modest Green New Deal is not that unpopular with Republicans. Sixty-six percent of Americans, including 89 percent of Democrats, supported this idea.
46 percent of Republicans opposed a “$2 trillion plan to increase the use of renewable energy and build energy-efficient infrastructure,” and 45 percent of Republicans supported it, according to the New York Times/Siena survey. The question referred neither to Biden nor to the “Green New Deal.” (The former vice president has a $2 trillion proposal that focuses on both improving America’s infrastructure and reducing the nation’s use of fossil fuels. It’s basically a shrunken-down version of the Green New Deal.) It’s quite possible that support for this proposal would be much lower among Republicans if the question cast it as, say, “Joe Biden’s version of the Green New Deal.” But it’s interesting that the of a more modest Green New Deal is not that unpopular with Republicans. Sixty-six percent of Americans, including 89 percent of Democrats, supported this idea. Getting a COVID-19 vaccine: 54 percent of Republicans said they would “probably” or “definitely” get a vaccine for COVID-19 if it were approved by the FDA, and 40 percent said they “probably” or “definitely” would not get it, per the New York Times/Siena survey. Sixty-one percent of Americans, including 69 percent of Democrats, said they would “probably” or “definitely” get the vaccine.
54 percent of Republicans said they would “probably” or “definitely” get a vaccine for COVID-19 if it were approved by the FDA, and 40 percent said they “probably” or “definitely” would get it, per the New York Times/Siena survey. Sixty-one percent of Americans, including 69 percent of Democrats, said they would “probably” or “definitely” get the vaccine. The levels of discrimination Black and Hispanic Americans face: About half of Republicans (52 percent) said that Black Americans face “a lot” of discrimation, and about half (47 percent) said that they don’t, per PRRI. Forty-five percent of Republicans agreed that Hispanic Americans face a lot of discrimation, compared to 53 percent who disagreed. Most Americans overall (75 percent) and Democrats (92 percent) said that Black Americans face a lot of discrimination. The numbers were similar but slightly lower for discrimination against Hispanic Americans: 69 percent of Americans and 86 percent of Democrats said that they face a lot of discrimination.
About half of Republicans (52 percent) said that Black Americans face “a lot” of discrimation, and about half (47 percent) said that they don’t, per PRRI. Forty-five percent of Republicans agreed that Hispanic Americans face a lot of discrimation, compared to 53 percent who disagreed. Most Americans overall (75 percent) and Democrats (92 percent) said that Black Americans face a lot of discrimination. The numbers were similar but slightly lower for discrimination against Hispanic Americans: 69 percent of Americans and 86 percent of Democrats said that they face a lot of discrimination. Immigration policy: Republicans are about equally split on allowing the separation of families at the border (45 percent supported, 53 percent opposed), protecting people who were brought to the U.S. as children but are not citizens from deportation (45 percent supported, 54 percent opposed) and creating a pathway to citizenship for undocumented immigrants (48 percent supported such a pathway, 38 percent said they should be deported, and 14 percent said they should be allowed to become legal residents but not become citizens). A clear majority of Americans overall opposed separating families at the border (76 percent) and supported a pathway to citizenship (64 percent), as well as granting legal resident status to immigrants who would benefit from either the DREAM Act or DACA, commonly referred to as “Dreamers” (66 percent).
Republicans are about equally split on allowing the separation of families at the border (45 percent supported, 53 percent opposed), protecting people who were brought to the U.S. as children but are not citizens from deportation (45 percent supported, 54 percent opposed) and creating a pathway to citizenship for undocumented immigrants (48 percent supported such a pathway, 38 percent said they should be deported, and 14 percent said they should be allowed to become legal residents but not become citizens). A clear majority of Americans overall opposed separating families at the border (76 percent) and supported a pathway to citizenship (64 percent), as well as granting legal resident status to immigrants who would benefit from either the DREAM Act or DACA, commonly referred to as “Dreamers” (66 percent). A universal basic income: 52 percent of Republicans supported guaranteeing all Americans a minimum income, compared to 48 percent who opposed such an idea, per PRRI. Seventy percent of Americans overall, including 88 percent of Democrats, supported a UBI.
You may have noticed both that there are more dividing issues listed here among Republicans than Democrats, and that there are a lot of ideas that split the Republican Party but are fairly popular among Americans. Part of that may be the nature of these surveys — a different set of questions might have found more splits among Democrats. But there’s an important explanation that gets at the parties’ divergent strategies.
Polling 101: Should You Trust The Polls In 2020? | FiveThirtyEight
Pollsters usually ask about ideas that are part of the current political discourse, which usually means that major politicians or activists are talking about them, but that they aren’t yet law. Biden and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, in particular, tend to campaign on and try to pass ideas that they know are fairly popular with the public, so it’s not surprising that there are lots of potential Biden administration proposals — such as a public health insurance option — that basically all Democratic voters and even some Republican voters are on board with. This Democratic approach makes sense electorally — it helps explain why the party is likely to win the popular vote in 2020 and has done so in most recent presidential elections.
Republicans like Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell and Trump are more willing than Biden and Pelosi to push controversial policies (such as separating children from their families at the U.S.-Mexico border) and oppose popular ones (the protection from deportation for “Dreamers” that was enacted under President Obama). So that explains why a lot of fairly popular ideas aren’t already law. This approach is more electorally risky than the Democratic one but sometimes pays dividends in terms of policy: Trump has limited immigration much more than he would have if he had only advanced and executed ideas popular with the broader American public.
Other polling bites
62 percent of likely voters believe that government-imposed limits on the number of people who can attend in-person gatherings — including at churches — amid the coronavirus outbreak are constitutional, according to a recent poll from the left-leaning Data for Progress; 29 percent said that subjecting churches to those limits impinges on religious liberties.
57 percent of likely voters think the Affordable Care Act should be upheld by the Supreme Court even though the law’s mandate requiring people to purchase insurance has been effectively eliminated, according to that same survey. About 1 in 3 likely voters (32 percent), including 53 percent of Republicans, think the ACA should be scrapped in light of the mandate change.
77 percent of registered voters said that the outcome of this year’s presidential election matters to them more than it has previous presidential elections, according to a September Gallup poll. That 77 percent is higher than for any previous presidential election going back to 1996 in Gallup’s polling. (The next-highest result was 74 percent in 2008.) In this year’s survey, 85 percent of Democrats, 79 percent of Republicans and 69 percent of independents said that this election matters more than previous ones.
69 percent of likely voters, including 54 percent of Republicans, think that it will take more than a year for the U.S. economy to recover from the COVID-19 outbreak, according to a recent poll conducted by Global Strategy Group and North Star Opinion Research on behalf of the Financial Times and the Peter G. Peterson Foundation. Less than a third (31 percent) of Americans think the economy will recover within a year.
The same survey found that people are almost evenly split on whether Trump’s policies have helped the economy: 44 percent of people said his policies helped, compared to 46 who said they had hurt the economy.
53 percent of adults ages 18-30 want Biden to win the election, 23 percent favor Trump, and a large bloc (17 percent) said they weren’t sure, according to a new Vice News/Ipsos poll. A majority (57 percent) of those surveyed said that they don’t feel represented by either party, compared to 28 percent who disagreed with that sentiment. These young voters are supportive of free COVID-19 testing for all Americans (85 percent), Medicare for All (68 percent) and the Black Lives Matter movement (64 percent). They are not as supportive of the Green New Deal (41 percent), limiting abortions after the first trimester (35 percent) and building a wall along the entire U.S.-Mexico border (26 percent).
61 percent of U.S. adults said they know someone who has tested positive for COVID-19, according to an Axios/Ipsos poll conducted Oct. 16-19, while only 38 percent said they did not. This is a big jump from early March, when only 4 percent of Americans said they knew someone who had tested positive for the virus, and even mid-July, when 41 percent knew someone who’d tested positive. More than 1 in 5 Americans (22 percent) said they know someone who has died of the virus, while 78 percent said they do not.
Trump approval
According to FiveThirtyEight’s presidential approval tracker, 42.5 percent of Americans approve of the job Trump is doing as president, while 53.8 percent disapprove (a net approval rating of -11.2 points). At this time last week, 42.7 percent approved and 54.3 percent disapproved (for a net approval rating of -11.6 points). One month ago, Trump had an approval rating of 42.7 percent and a disapproval rating of 53.0 percent, for a net approval rating of -10.3 points.
Generic ballot
In our average of polls of the generic congressional ballot, Democrats currently lead by 7.4 percentage points (49.4 percent to 42.0 percent). A week ago, Democrats led Republicans by 7 points (48.9 percent to 41.9 percent). At this time last month, voters preferred Democrats by 6.3 points (48.7 percent to 42.3 percent).
Check out all the polls we’ve been collecting ahead of the 2020 elections.


fivethirthyeight--2020-10-23--Polling 101: What Happened To The Polls In 2016 — And What You Should Know About Them In 2020

The results of the 2016 election came as a shock to many Americans .
How could Donald Trump win the @ @ @ @ @ in the polls ?
As Election Day approaches in 2020 , it once again looks @ @ @ @ @ in the lead .
But can we really trust what pollsters are telling us ?
@ @ @ @ @ explains why you shouldn ’ t give up on polling .

Polling 101: What Happened To The Polls In 2016 — And What You Should Know About Them In 2020
The results of the 2016 election came as a shock to many Americans. How could Donald Trump win the presidency when he was behind in the polls? As Election Day approaches in 2020, it once again looks like the Democratic candidate is in the lead. But can we really trust what pollsters are telling us? FiveThirtyEight database journalist Dhrumil Mehta explains why you shouldn’t give up on polling.


fivethirthyeight--2020-10-23--What Went Down During The Final Presidential Debate Of 2020


fivethirthyeight--2020-10-23--Will A Runoff In Georgia Decide Control Of The Senate? And Other Listener Questions.

In this installment of Model Talk on the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast , editor-in-chief Nate Silver talks to Galen Druke about @ @ @ @ @ are showing different degrees of competitiveness .
They also answer more listener questions .

Will A Runoff In Georgia Decide Control Of The Senate? And Other Listener Questions.
In this installment of Model Talk on the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, editor-in-chief Nate Silver talks to Galen Druke about why state-level and national polls are showing different degrees of competitiveness. They also answer more listener questions.


fivethirthyeight--2020-10-23--Politics Podcast: National And District-Level Polls Disagree About How Close The 2020 Election Is

Our national polling average shows Joe Biden with about a 10-point lead , while the state-level polls indicate his lead is closer to 8 points .
Meanwhile , some recent polling in congressional districts shows margins for Biden that suggest he ’ s leading by more than 10 points nationally .
In this installment of Model Talk on the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast , editor-in-chief Nate Silver talks to Galen Druke about why those polls are showing different degrees of competitiveness .
They also answer listener questions including , How long did it take to build the forecast ?
And what @ @ @ @ @ @ @ runoff deciding who controls the Senate ?
You can listen to the episode by clicking the “ play ” button in the audio player above or by downloading it in iTunes , the ESPN App or your favorite podcast platform .
If you are new to podcasts , learn how to listen .
The FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast is recorded Mondays and Thursdays .
Help new listeners discover the show by leaving us a rating and review on iTunes .
Have a comment , question or suggestion for “ good polling vs. bad polling @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , on Twitter or in the comments .

Our national polling average shows Joe Biden with about a 10-point lead, while the state-level polls indicate his lead is closer to 8 points. Meanwhile, some recent polling in congressional districts shows margins for Biden that suggest he’s leading by more than 10 points nationally. In this installment of Model Talk on the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, editor-in-chief Nate Silver talks to Galen Druke about why those polls are showing different degrees of competitiveness. They also answer listener questions including, How long did it take to build the forecast? And what’s the chance of a Georgia runoff deciding who controls the Senate?
You can listen to the episode by clicking the “play” button in the audio player above or by downloading it in iTunes, the ESPN App or your favorite podcast platform. If you are new to podcasts, learn how to listen.
The FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast is recorded Mondays and Thursdays. Help new listeners discover the show by leaving us a rating and review on iTunes. Have a comment, question or suggestion for “good polling vs. bad polling”? Get in touch by email, on Twitter or in the comments.


fivethirthyeight--2020-10-23--What 2 Games Of The World Series Have Shown Us

Through two games of the World Series , the Los Angeles Dodgers — owners of the best record in the majors — and the Tampa Bay Rays , possessing the best record in the AL this season , have each won a game .
While the Dodgers have been our favorite to win the World Series since the preseason and remain a heavy favorite according to our model , the Rays are a talented and creative team that won the second-most games this season with the majors ’ third-lowest payroll .
Such meetings of the MLB ’ s two best @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , so what have we learned about this matchup through two games ?
And what does it mean for the World Series going forward as play resumes today ?
After he helped send the Dodgers to the World Series with a memorable home run in Game 7 of the NL championship series , Cody Bellinger homered again Tuesday .
While he ’ s coming off an uneven season , he was still a better-than-league-average hitter , according to Baseball-Reference.com ’ s OPS+ metric .
Through his age-24 season , he ’ s already @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Rookie of the Year Award ( 2017 ) .
According to Baseball-Reference.com , the most similar batters to him through age 24 include Darryl Strawberry , Giancarlo Stanton and Manny Ramirez .
What was also remarkable about Bellinger ’ s soaring home runs was his place in the batting order when he slugged them : sixth .
It ’ s remarkable the Dodgers have such a hitter in the bottom half of their lineup .
In the following inning Tuesday , Chris Taylor , batting seventh , singled home Max Muncy to give @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Hernández — who came off the bench to hit in the eighth spot — followed with an RBI single to blow open the game .
The talent and depth of the Dodgers ’ lineup is rare and a great advantage .
This season , the Dodgers ’ lineup posted above-league average OPS marks for eight out of nine lineup positions .
Their No .
6 hitters this season combined to be 31 percent better than league average for that spot .
The Dodgers ’ seventh , eighth and ninth hitters combined for a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ percent above league-average production for the bottom third of a lineup .
The Dodgers ’ 7-8-9 spots combined to tie for the 18th best such production ever recorded in the game .
For opposing pitchers , the threats must seem endless .
Ice-cold bats need to warm up for the Rays While rookie Randy Arozarena is having an all-time great postseason , a number of Rays regulars have not hit well this postseason , batting .213 as a team through Game 2 .
Those slumping Rays included Brandon Lowe , who led the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the regular season but entered Game 2 batting just .107 in the playoffs .
So that Lowe smashed a first-inning home run Wednesday , and homered again in the fifth to stake the Rays to a 5-0 lead , is exactly the type of bat the Rays need to get going .
The Rays advanced to the World Series with regulars Lowe , Austin Meadows and Willy Adames all batting less than .200 with OPS marks of .549 or worse entering Game 3 .
The Rays need them to break out .
Longtime @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for years about his postseason performance .
For his career , Kershaw has a 2.43 ERA in the regular season ( 175-76 record ) compared with a 4.22 ERA in the postseason ( 12-12 record ) .
But if he can follow up on his excellent Game 1 outing and help the Dodgers to a title , he can end questions surrounding his ability to perform in the playoffs .
Kershaw is putting together an excellent postseason , with a 3-1 record and 2.88 ERA over 25 innings , the most in the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of performance trends that are working in his favor .
His velocity has increased this season after setting career lows in 2018 and again in 2019 .
He ’ s also relying on his slider at a 42 percent rate in the playoffs , the second most often he ’ s thrown it in a postseason , and up from his rate in the regular season , which has increased in recent seasons .
He ’ s throwing it more often than his fastball ( 41.7 percent ) this October .
Kershaw threw @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 45 percent of his total offerings , inducing 21 swings and 11 whiffs .
He ’ s thrown 145 sliders this October , and opponents are batting just .200 in those instances .
The slider might be Kershaw ’ s narrative-changing ace card .
The Rays ’ pitching gives them a chance … if they don ’ t stray from their plan The Rays have excelled in limiting their starting pitchers ’ exposure , averaging the fewest pitches per start this season ( 71 ) .
For instance , in Game 7 of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ was pulled after throwing 66 pitches despite having allowed just two hits over 5⅔ shutout innings .
The idea is that pitchers generally perform worse each cycle through the opposing lineup .
Those practices , coupled with an elite bullpen and backed by one of the game ’ s best defenses , have allowed the Rays to be nearly the equal of the Dodgers in preventing runs this season — despite operating with just a fraction of their payroll .
So it was surprising to see Rays manager Kevin Cash allow Tyler Glasnow @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Game 1 .
Glasnow wasn ’ t particularly sharp , surrendering four of his six total walks before the fifth inning , when the Dodgers blew the game open .
In Game 2 , Cash managed more as he had most of this season , pulling starter Blake Snell after 88 pitches , in line with his season average .
The Rays ’ bullpen held the lead , and the formula that worked so often in the regular season — and during the playoffs in the run-up to the World Series — was @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to stick with the plan and for it to stay effective if they hope to deliver a Dodgers upset .

Through two games of the World Series, the Los Angeles Dodgers — owners of the best record in the majors — and the Tampa Bay Rays, possessing the best record in the AL this season, have each won a game. While the Dodgers have been our favorite to win the World Series since the preseason and remain a heavy favorite according to our model, the Rays are a talented and creative team that won the second-most games this season with the majors’ third-lowest payroll. Such meetings of the MLB’s two best teams in its championship series are rare, so what have we learned about this matchup through two games? And what does it mean for the World Series going forward as play resumes today?
The Dodgers lineup is absurdly deep
After he helped send the Dodgers to the World Series with a memorable home run in Game 7 of the NL championship series, Cody Bellinger homered again Tuesday. While he’s coming off an uneven season, he was still a better-than-league-average hitter, according to Baseball-Reference.com’s OPS+ metric. Through his age-24 season, he’s already won an MVP (2019) and Rookie of the Year Award (2017). According to Baseball-Reference.com, the most similar batters to him through age 24 include Darryl Strawberry, Giancarlo Stanton and Manny Ramirez. What was also remarkable about Bellinger’s soaring home runs was his place in the batting order when he slugged them: sixth. It’s remarkable the Dodgers have such a hitter in the bottom half of their lineup. In the following inning Tuesday, Chris Taylor, batting seventh, singled home Max Muncy to give the Dodgers a 5-1 lead. Enrique Hernández — who came off the bench to hit in the eighth spot — followed with an RBI single to blow open the game.
The talent and depth of the Dodgers’ lineup is rare and a great advantage. This season, the Dodgers’ lineup posted above-league average OPS marks for eight out of nine lineup positions. Their No. 6 hitters this season combined to be 31 percent better than league average for that spot. The Dodgers’ seventh, eighth and ninth hitters combined for a sOPS+ number of 136, or 36 percent above league-average production for the bottom third of a lineup. The Dodgers’ 7-8-9 spots combined to tie for the 18th best such production ever recorded in the game. For opposing pitchers, the threats must seem endless.
Ice-cold bats need to warm up for the Rays
While rookie Randy Arozarena is having an all-time great postseason, a number of Rays regulars have not hit well this postseason, batting .213 as a team through Game 2. Those slumping Rays included Brandon Lowe, who led the team in home runs and WAR in the regular season but entered Game 2 batting just .107 in the playoffs.
So that Lowe smashed a first-inning home run Wednesday, and homered again in the fifth to stake the Rays to a 5-0 lead, is exactly the type of bat the Rays need to get going. The Rays advanced to the World Series with regulars Lowe, Austin Meadows and Willy Adames all batting less than .200 with OPS marks of .549 or worse entering Game 3. The Rays need them to break out.
Kershaw is changing his story
Longtime Dodgers ace Clayton Kershaw has been criticized for years about his postseason performance. For his career, Kershaw has a 2.43 ERA in the regular season (175-76 record) compared with a 4.22 ERA in the postseason (12-12 record).
But if he can follow up on his excellent Game 1 outing and help the Dodgers to a title, he can end questions surrounding his ability to perform in the playoffs. Kershaw is putting together an excellent postseason, with a 3-1 record and 2.88 ERA over 25 innings, the most in the postseason field.
Kershaw has a couple of performance trends that are working in his favor. His velocity has increased this season after setting career lows in 2018 and again in 2019. He’s also relying on his slider at a 42 percent rate in the playoffs, the second most often he’s thrown it in a postseason, and up from his rate in the regular season, which has increased in recent seasons. He’s throwing it more often than his fastball (41.7 percent) this October. Kershaw threw 35 sliders in Game 1, nearly 45 percent of his total offerings, inducing 21 swings and 11 whiffs. He’s thrown 145 sliders this October, and opponents are batting just .200 in those instances. The slider might be Kershaw’s narrative-changing ace card.
The Rays’ pitching gives them a chance … if they don’t stray from their plan
The Rays have excelled in limiting their starting pitchers’ exposure, averaging the fewest pitches per start this season (71). For instance, in Game 7 of the ALCS, Rays pitcher Charlie Morton was pulled after throwing 66 pitches despite having allowed just two hits over 5⅔ shutout innings. The idea is that pitchers generally perform worse each cycle through the opposing lineup. Those practices, coupled with an elite bullpen and backed by one of the game’s best defenses, have allowed the Rays to be nearly the equal of the Dodgers in preventing runs this season — despite operating with just a fraction of their payroll.
So it was surprising to see Rays manager Kevin Cash allow Tyler Glasnow to throw a career-high 112 pitches in Game 1. Glasnow wasn’t particularly sharp, surrendering four of his six total walks before the fifth inning, when the Dodgers blew the game open.
In Game 2, Cash managed more as he had most of this season, pulling starter Blake Snell after 88 pitches, in line with his season average. The Rays’ bullpen held the lead, and the formula that worked so often in the regular season — and during the playoffs in the run-up to the World Series — was successful again. The Rays likely need to stick with the plan and for it to stay effective if they hope to deliver a Dodgers upset.
Check out our latest MLB predictions.


fivethirthyeight--2020-10-23--Will The Race Tighten After The Final Debate?

In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast , the crew recaps the final presidential debate and considers what the @ @ @ @ @ will look like .

In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the crew recaps the final presidential debate and considers what the rest of the 2020 campaign will look like.