fivethirthyeight--2020-12-15--A Record-Breaking Number Of Women Will Be In Biden’s Cabinet

Though the president ’ s Cabinet is meant to expose him to a diverse set of perspectives and backgrounds , until recently , that meant diversity of geography or ideology , not diversity of gender or race .
It took until 1933 for the first woman to be appointed to a Cabinet position ( Labor Secretary Frances Perkins ) and 1966 for the first African American ( Secretary of Housing and Urban Development Robert Weaver ) .
And even since then , women and people of color have consistently been underrepresented in the Cabinet .
But Joe Biden ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The president-elect has chosen nine people of color for Cabinet-level posts so far and has promised that his Cabinet will be the most racially diverse in history .
And with his reported nomination of former Michigan Gov .
Jennifer Granholm for secretary of energy , he has now chosen nine women ( compared with eight men ) to serve in these positions as well .
According to our research , if they ’ re all confirmed , it would break the record for the most women ever to serve in the 25 current @ @ @ @ @ @ @ possibility that Biden ’ s Cabinet could be the first in American history to include at least as many women as men .
But while gender parity represents progress , numeric representation in and of itself doesn ’ t mean that men and women have equal political power and influence .
For example , women have historically been underrepresented in the “ inner Cabinet ” — the vice president , attorney general and secretaries of state , defense and treasury — who typically have the closest ties to the president .
And although @ @ @ @ @ @ @ under Biden ( the country ’ s first female vice president , treasury secretary and director of national intelligence ) , a handful of Cabinet-level posts still have yet to be led by a woman .
Historically there have just been fewer women than men in careers relevant to these roles , and those who are floated for these offices often run up against gender stereotypes that women lack the traits to succeed in them .
For example , a woman has never led the stereotypically male-dominated Department of Defense — and that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ will not break in 2021 .
Although former Undersecretary of Defense for Policy Michèle Flournoy was initially considered the front-runner for defense secretary , Biden eventually opted for retired Army Gen. Lloyd Austin ( who , notably , would also make history as the first Black defense secretary ) .
Research by political scientists Tiffany Barnes and Diana O ’ Brien may explain why a woman has yet to hold this office .
Focusing on the post-Cold War era , they found that women were less likely to be appointed as defense ministers @ @ @ @ @ @ @ at least one death or where military spending is high .
“ Women are stereotyped as more dovish , ” O ’ Brien told FiveThirtyEight , noting that one reason a woman hasn ’ t been named secretary of defense is that “ our defense position fits a stereotype about conflict and war.
” However , Barnes and O ’ Brien found that this isn ’ t the case everywhere : In countries that are more concerned with peacekeeping or with breaking from former military abuses of power , women are more likely @ @ @ @ @ @ @ These dynamics may also explain why so few women have held other national-security- or military-related Cabinet posts .
President Trump ’ s outgoing appointee Gina Haspel is the only woman to have led the Central Intelligence Agency , and Avril Haines is slated to be the first female head of the U.S. intelligence community .
And since the Department of Veterans Affairs became a Cabinet department in 1989 , it has never been led by a woman — a streak that will continue under Biden with his appointment of Denis McDonough .
In @ @ @ @ @ @ @ been a female treasury secretary in 231 years of American history ; Biden appointee Janet Yellen would be the first .
What ’ s more , there are only a handful of women who have held the equivalent post in other countries with large economies .
However , ongoing research by Barnes and O ’ Brien has also found that women are more likely to be appointed to economic posts in precarious times , such as during , or following , a financial crisis or economic scandal .
This finding is especially troubling @ @ @ @ @ @ @ fosters the perception that women are less effective leaders in these roles — often referred to as the “ glass cliff.
” And given the economic recession caused by the coronavirus pandemic , Yellen ’ s appointment certainly fits this pattern , making her appointment high-stakes for future female treasury secretaries .
By contrast , other Cabinet-level departments — such as the Small Business Administration , the Department of Labor , the Department of Health and Human Services and the Environmental Protection Agency — have seen more women at the helm .
This @ @ @ @ @ @ @ departments are more in line with stereotypes of female leadership or draw from career paths in which there are simply more female professionals .
Women ’ s presumed issue expertise in areas like welfare and health care doesn ’ t map neatly onto all Cabinet positions filled by more women , but it ’ s one possible explanation for why more women are appointed to some roles and not others .
The Small Business Administration is particularly interesting in that its explicit economic focus doesn ’ t fit neatly into this framework .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ men ( eight ) and women ( seven ) have led it since 1977 , making it the Cabinet position that has historically come the closest to gender equality .
Similarly , six of the 13 labor secretaries since Jimmy Carter ’ s administration have been women — and , as we mentioned at the outset , the first woman to ever serve in a president ’ s Cabinet , Perkins , was tasked with running the Labor Department .
Perkins was an advocate for workers ’ rights in this position and helped @ @ @ @ @ @ @ including unemployment insurance , child-labor laws and other protections for workers like a minimum wage .
Even today , more than 80 years later , this department is concerned with safeguarding workers , which increasingly includes fair employment practices and a more female workforce .
This , in turn , might help explain why women often head this agency , as research has shown that they are often perceived as better able to handle these issues , and , in fact , have had an impact in these roles .
So while you @ @ @ @ @ @ @ appoint enough women to his inner Cabinet , or that the lack of women leading stereotypically masculine departments continues to be a problem , Biden ’ s appointment of a record number of women does matter .
Picking more women as Cabinet officials has a snowball effect .
As Barnes told us , “ Once you start on a trajectory of nominating more women , it ’ s hard to roll it back.
” And , as you saw in the first chart , administrations tend to maintain ( or closely maintain ) @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a phenomenon often referred to as the “ concrete floor.
” For instance , Carter started his administration with two female Cabinet members , Ronald Reagan with two , George H.W .
Bush with three , Bill Clinton with five , George W. Bush with four and Barack Obama with eight .
( Granted , Trump represented a step back , starting his administration with just four women in his Cabinet . )
But , generally speaking , the more opportunities women see available in leadership roles , the greater their motivation will @ @ @ @ @ @ @ turn , the more women who populate these pipelines to power , the better-positioned they will be to assume political leadership .

UPDATE (Dec. 17, 2020, 3:30 p.m.): On Thursday, President-elect Joe Biden tapped Deb Haaland to be the first Native American secretary of the interior. As we wrote earlier this week, Biden is on track to name a historic number of women and people of color to his Cabinet.
Though the president’s Cabinet is meant to expose him to a diverse set of perspectives and backgrounds, until recently, that meant diversity of geography or ideology, not diversity of gender or race. It took until 1933 for the first woman to be appointed to a Cabinet position (Labor Secretary Frances Perkins) and 1966 for the first African American (Secretary of Housing and Urban Development Robert Weaver). And even since then, women and people of color have consistently been underrepresented in the Cabinet.
What the COVID-19 vaccine means for political battles to come
But Joe Biden’s administration seems determined to change that. The president-elect has chosen 11 people of color for Cabinet-level posts so far and has promised that his Cabinet will be the most racially diverse in history. And as of Thursday, Dec. 17, he has now chosen 10 women (compared with nine men) to serve in these positions as well. According to our research, if they’re all confirmed, it would break the record for the most women ever to serve in the 25 current Cabinet-level positions. It also raises the possibility that Biden’s Cabinet could be the first in American history to include at least as many women as men.
But while gender parity represents progress, numeric representation in and of itself doesn’t mean that men and women have equal political power and influence. For example, women have historically been underrepresented in the “inner Cabinet” — the vice president, attorney general and secretaries of state, defense and treasury — who typically have the closest ties to the president. And although we can expect a number of firsts under Biden (the country’s first female vice president, treasury secretary and director of national intelligence ), a handful of Cabinet-level posts still have yet to be led by a woman. Historically there have just been fewer women than men in careers relevant to these roles, and those who are floated for these offices often run up against gender stereotypes that women lack the traits to succeed in them.
[How Black, Latino And Progressive Democrats Are Forcing Biden To Rethink His Cabinet Picks]
For example, a woman has never led the stereotypically male-dominated Department of Defense — and that is one barrier that the Biden administration will not break in 2021. Although former Undersecretary of Defense for Policy Michèle Flournoy was initially considered the front-runner for defense secretary, Biden eventually opted for retired Army Gen. Lloyd Austin (who, notably, would also make history as the first Black defense secretary).
Research by political scientists Tiffany Barnes and Diana O’Brien may explain why a woman has yet to hold this office. Focusing on the post-Cold War era, they found that women were less likely to be appointed as defense ministers in countries engaged in international conflicts with at least one death or where military spending is high. “Women are stereotyped as more dovish,” O’Brien told FiveThirtyEight, noting that one reason a woman hasn’t been named secretary of defense is that “our defense position fits a stereotype about conflict and war.” However, Barnes and O’Brien found that this isn’t the case everywhere: In countries that are more concerned with peacekeeping or with breaking from former military abuses of power, women are more likely to be appointed as defense minister.
[5 Ways Biden Might Differ From — Or Agree With — Trump On Technology]
These dynamics may also explain why so few women have held other national-security- or military-related Cabinet posts. President Trump’s outgoing appointee Gina Haspel is the only woman to have led the Central Intelligence Agency, and Avril Haines is slated to be the first female head of the U.S. intelligence community. And since the Department of Veterans Affairs became a Cabinet department in 1989, it has never been led by a woman — a streak that will continue under Biden with his appointment of Denis McDonough.
In the same vein, there has never been a female treasury secretary in 231 years of American history; Biden appointee Janet Yellen would be the first. What’s more, there are only a handful of women who have held the equivalent post in other countries with large economies.
However, ongoing research by Barnes and O’Brien has also found that women are more likely to be appointed to economic posts in precarious times, such as during, or following, a financial crisis or economic scandal. This finding is especially troubling, as they argue this phenomenon often fosters the perception that women are less effective leaders in these roles — often referred to as the “glass cliff.” And given the economic recession caused by the coronavirus pandemic, Yellen’s appointment certainly fits this pattern, making her appointment high-stakes for future female treasury secretaries.
By contrast, other Cabinet-level departments — such as the Small Business Administration, the Department of Labor, the Department of Health and Human Services and the Environmental Protection Agency — have seen more women at the helm.
This stems partly from the fact that these departments are more in line with stereotypes of female leadership or draw from career paths in which there are simply more female professionals. Women’s presumed issue expertise in areas like welfare and health care doesn’t map neatly onto all Cabinet positions filled by more women, but it’s one possible explanation for why more women are appointed to some roles and not others.
[Related: What We’ve Learned About The Biden Administration From His Staffing Choices So Far]
The Small Business Administration is particularly interesting in that its explicit economic focus doesn’t fit neatly into this framework. Nevertheless, almost an equal number of men (eight) and women (seven) have led it since 1977, making it the Cabinet position that has historically come the closest to gender equality.
Similarly, six of the 13 labor secretaries since Jimmy Carter’s administration have been women — and, as we mentioned at the outset, the first woman to ever serve in a president’s Cabinet, Perkins, was tasked with running the Labor Department. Perkins was an advocate for workers’ rights in this position and helped implement aspects of the New Deal, including unemployment insurance, child-labor laws and other protections for workers like a minimum wage. Even today, more than 80 years later, this department is concerned with safeguarding workers, which increasingly includes fair employment practices and a more female workforce. This, in turn, might help explain why women often head this agency, as research has shown that they are often perceived as better able to handle these issues, and, in fact, have had an impact in these roles.
So while you may think that Biden didn’t appoint enough women to his inner Cabinet, or that the lack of women leading stereotypically masculine departments continues to be a problem, Biden’s appointment of a record number of women does matter. Picking more women as Cabinet officials has a snowball effect. As Barnes told us, “Once you start on a trajectory of nominating more women, it’s hard to roll it back.”
And, as you saw in the first chart, administrations tend to maintain (or closely maintain) the momentum of the previous administration, a phenomenon often referred to as the “concrete floor.” For instance, Carter started his administration with two female Cabinet members, Ronald Reagan with two, George H.W. Bush with three, Bill Clinton with five, George W. Bush with four and Barack Obama with eight. (Granted, Trump represented a step back, starting his administration with just four women in his Cabinet.) But, generally speaking, the more opportunities women see available in leadership roles, the greater their motivation will become to pursue professional opportunities. In turn, the more women who populate these pipelines to power, the better-positioned they will be to assume political leadership.
What Trump revealed about America | FiveThirtyEight


fivethirthyeight--2020-12-15--The Secret To Winning Is Not To Play

The Secret To Winning Is Not To Play

We start with some MLB news .
It was announced on Sunday that the Cleveland baseball franchise will replace its current team name of the Indians for something else after the 2021 season .
This news isn ’ t unexpected ; Cleveland had become the most egregious case of a professional team appropriating Native American imagery and stereotypes after the Washington Football Team decided to stop using its old name in July ( to the great delight of this podcast , at least ) .
This probably puts some amount of pressure on other teams using native names and iconography @ @ @ @ @ @ @ But Cleveland is in the interesting position of being able to draw on its history while forging a new identity .
It could be time for the redemption of Cleveland Spiders , the team in baseball with the worst-ever regular-season record — they went an unmatched 20-134 in 1899 .
There would at least be plenty of fun Halloween merch opportunities if a 21st century Spiders team gets to play games in October .
Next , we move to college football .
It is remarkable that in a season defined by chaos — @ @ @ @ @ @ @ championship game — the College Football Playoff picture looks so similar to years past .
Alabama , Notre Dame , Clemson and Ohio State look as strong as ever , but especially OSU hasn ’ t really needed to prove it .
This year was perhaps the moment to expand the playoffs or let in a team from outside the playoff elite .
Cincinnati , Texas A & M and even Coastal Carolina have made cases for themselves based on actually playing games .
It is disheartening , and bad for the credibility @ @ @ @ @ @ @ who are getting a chance to compete at the highest level are simply the ones assumed to be the strongest .
Florida learned a thing or two over the weekend about assuming you can just waltz in and win .
The Gators also learned not to throw shoes .
Finally , in the Rabbit Hole , in honor of the New England Patriots being mathematically eliminated from the AFC East title race , Neil looks at the longest divisional winning streaks .
The Patriots ’ 11-season run of dominance is the longest streak @ @ @ @ @ @ @ had won the division in 2008 , they would have the longest winning streak in major American sports .
As it stands , that honor belongs to the Atlanta Braves .
Although their 14-season winning streak in the NL East , from 1991 to 2005 , got a boost from the 1994 players strike , it ’ s still the only double-digit streak of its kind in baseball .
What we ’ re looking at this week : • Hundreds of teams are still using Native American mascots .
• How Coastal Carolina @ @ @ @ @ @ @ hearts ) .
• The College Football Playoff committee is about to stiff a team from Texas again .

We start with some MLB news. It was announced on Sunday that the Cleveland baseball franchise will replace its current team name of the Indians for something else after the 2021 season. This news isn’t unexpected; Cleveland had become the most egregious case of a professional team appropriating Native American imagery and stereotypes after the Washington Football Team decided to stop using its old name in July (to the great delight of this podcast, at least). This probably puts some amount of pressure on other teams using native names and iconography — most notably the Chicago Blackhawks. But Cleveland is in the interesting position of being able to draw on its history while forging a new identity. It could be time for the redemption of Cleveland Spiders, the team in baseball with the worst-ever regular-season record — they went an unmatched 20-134 in 1899. There would at least be plenty of fun Halloween merch opportunities if a 21st century Spiders team gets to play games in October.
[Related: Losing Money Betting On College Football This Year? You’re Not Alone.]
Next, we move to college football. It is remarkable that in a season defined by chaos — Oregon just replaced Washington in the Pac-12 championship game — the College Football Playoff picture looks so similar to years past. Alabama, Notre Dame, Clemson and Ohio State look as strong as ever, but especially OSU hasn’t really needed to prove it. This year was perhaps the moment to expand the playoffs or let in a team from outside the playoff elite. Cincinnati, Texas A&M and even Coastal Carolina have made cases for themselves based on actually playing games. It is disheartening, and bad for the credibility of the CFP, that the teams who are getting a chance to compete at the highest level are simply the ones assumed to be the strongest. Florida learned a thing or two over the weekend about assuming you can just waltz in and win. The Gators also learned not to throw shoes.
Finally, in the Rabbit Hole, in honor of the New England Patriots being mathematically eliminated from the AFC East title race, Neil looks at the longest divisional winning streaks. The Patriots’ 11-season run of dominance is the longest streak in the NFL, and if they had won the division in 2008, they would have the longest winning streak in major American sports. As it stands, that honor belongs to the Atlanta Braves. Although their 14-season winning streak in the NL East, from 1991 to 2005, got a boost from the 1994 players strike, it’s still the only double-digit streak of its kind in baseball.
What we’re looking at this week:


fivethirthyeight--2020-12-15--The Secret To Iowa State’s Improbable Season? Balance.

Iowa State has not traditionally been a college football program that reciprocates heightened expectations with on-field success .
So it was tragically on brand when the Cyclones entered the season ranked in the Associated Press preseason poll for the third time in school history and then lost by 17 points at Jack Trice Stadium to an opponent that hadn ’ t touched the AP poll at any point in a season in more than 75 years .
The Des Moines Register summed up the Cyclones ’ season-opening dejection in its postgame report : “ In a season where few things @ @ @ @ @ @ @ State delivered something familiar to its fans .
Disappointment in September.
” But there has hardly been any disappointment since .
Iowa State has gone 8-1 after the opener and will appear in this week ’ s Big 12 championship game .
If that sounds suspect , it ’ s because it has never happened before .
Football has been played in Ames , Iowa , for more than 100 years .
Little of that history has involved winning .
Over a 36-season run as a member of the Big Eight Conference , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Big Eight transitioned into the Big 12 , the sorrow continued as Iowa State went 90-151 over its first 20 seasons .
But head coach Matt Campbell , who has actually used the word “ laughingstock ” to describe his program ’ s past , has rapidly established a new standard for the cardinal and gold .
In fewer than five seasons , Campbell has won the same number of conference games ( 26 ) that former coach Dan McCarney did over his final 10 seasons , and he has won more total @ @ @ @ @ @ @ predecessor , Paul Rhoads , ( 32 ) over his seven-year stint .
Campbell has beaten Big 12 aristocrats Oklahoma and Texas twice each — and this year , he beat them both .
Regardless of Saturday ’ s outcome , he will soon bring Iowa State to its 16th all-time bowl game and fourth consecutive under his watch .
The fifth-year seniors on his roster will graduate as the winningest class in school history .
“ There ’ s been a lot of adversity at Iowa State for a long time .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ around us , ” Campbell said after his team downed the Sooners in 2017 .
“ I think our kids said , ‘ I ’ m sick of it.
’ ” Three years later , Iowa State capped the regular season in sole possession of first place in the Big 12 standings for the first time in program history .
With a rematch against Oklahoma looming , let ’ s first take stock of the historic season unfolding in Ames .
One way to measure it is by Sports-Reference.com ’ s Simple Rating @ @ @ @ @ @ @ better or worse a team is than an average one in a given season .
By SRS , the 2020 Cyclones are in the midst of the school ’ s best season since 1976 and the third best of the 123 seasons in the database .
So how did the Cyclones bounce back from a season-opening loss to emerge atop the Big 12 with a sliver of a chance to reach the College Football Playoff ?
“ Being balanced is really who we ’ ve been when we ’ ve been at our @ @ @ @ @ @ @ season .
“ So finding that balance within a game … I really do think it is critical for us becoming the best version of ourselves we can be.
” And while that is quintessential coach speak , Campbell and offensive coordinator Tom Manning have actually balanced the offensive ledger more than in previous seasons .
Iowa State ’ s pass rate is 51.1 percent , the lowest rate for the team under Campbell .
Though quarterback Brock Purdy has seen fewer dropbacks this year ( 33.1 per game after averaging 40.5 in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ higher team Total QBR ( 78.9 ) and adjusted completion percentage ( 72.9 percent ) this season than any for which data is available .
Balance extends not only to play type but also to who receives targets in the pass game .
In Charlie Kolar , a surefire NFL draft pick , Iowa State has the school ’ s all-time single-season record holder for receiving yards by a tight end .
But the team also has nine other players with at least five receptions this season .
This represents quite the departure @ @ @ @ @ @ @ keying in on a single , standout wide receiver when players like Hakeem Butler or Allen Lazard competed .
And then there ’ s Doak Walker candidate Breece Hall .
The sophomore leads the country in rushing yards ( 1,357 ) , and ranks second in rushing yards after contact ( 721 ) and total scrimmage yards ( 1,501 ) and is tied for second in evaded tackles ( 33 ) .
Behind Hall and a we-will-get-there-when-we-get-there offensive ethos , Iowa State has adopted an intentionally slow operation , which averages the longest @ @ @ @ @ @ @ drive that Campbell has had in Ames .
In one-score games , the Cyclones huddle before 47.1 percent of their offensive snaps , up 12 percentage points from the team ’ s average over Campbell ’ s first four seasons .
Within Campbell ’ s scheme on defense , Iowa State is compressing the pocket and bothering opposing quarterbacks , setting all-time team high-water marks in sack and pressure rate .
What ’ s more impressive about those marks is that the Cyclones haven ’ t had to sacrifice coverage in pursuit of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ rush on just 10.9 percent of opponent dropbacks , a nearly 15-point drop from last season and by far the lowest rate of his tenure .
In turn , the Cyclone defense is holding opponents to 1.47 points per drive , the second best mark by an ISU defense for any season for which data is available .
All this adds up to Campbell ’ s most efficient team on both sides of the ball .
There aren ’ t many college football teams for which curses are used for explanation with such @ @ @ @ @ @ @ year that cursed so many , the Cyclones somehow managed to exorcise its past .
They rebounded from being roundly mocked following the season opener to turn away Oklahoma , TCU , Baylor and Texas in the waning moments of one-score games .
Historically , that simply doesn ’ t happen for this team .
A win Saturday would give Iowa State its first conference championship since 1912 and put a giant bow on Ames ’ s feel-good storyline .
The odds are against Campbell and his crew : Oklahoma is the stronger @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Power Index , and the Sooners stand as 5.5-point favorites .
But then again , the Cyclones have been comfortable performing the improbable all season long .

Iowa State has not traditionally been a college football program that reciprocates heightened expectations with on-field success. So it was tragically on brand when the Cyclones entered the season ranked in the Associated Press preseason poll for the third time in school history and then lost by 17 points at Jack Trice Stadium to an opponent that hadn’t touched the AP poll at any point in a season in more than 75 years.
The Des Moines Register summed up the Cyclones’ season-opening dejection in its postgame report: “In a season where few things will look or feel normal, Iowa State delivered something familiar to its fans. Disappointment in September.”
But there has hardly been any disappointment since. Iowa State has gone 8-1 after the opener and will appear in this week’s Big 12 championship game. If that sounds suspect, it’s because it has never happened before.
Football has been played in Ames, Iowa, for more than 100 years. Little of that history has involved winning. Over a 36-season run as a member of the Big Eight Conference, the Cyclones went 157-220-12. When the Big Eight transitioned into the Big 12, the sorrow continued as Iowa State went 90-151 over its first 20 seasons.
But head coach Matt Campbell, who has actually used the word “laughingstock” to describe his program’s past, has rapidly established a new standard for the cardinal and gold. In fewer than five seasons, Campbell has won the same number of conference games (26) that former coach Dan McCarney did over his final 10 seasons, and he has won more total games (34) than did his predecessor, Paul Rhoads, (32) over his seven-year stint. Campbell has beaten Big 12 aristocrats Oklahoma and Texas twice each — and this year, he beat them both. Regardless of Saturday’s outcome, he will soon bring Iowa State to its 16th all-time bowl game and fourth consecutive under his watch. The fifth-year seniors on his roster will graduate as the winningest class in school history.
“There’s been a lot of adversity at Iowa State for a long time. And there’s been a cloud around us,” Campbell said after his team downed the Sooners in 2017. “I think our kids said, ‘I’m sick of it.’”
Three years later, Iowa State capped the regular season in sole possession of first place in the Big 12 standings for the first time in program history. With a rematch against Oklahoma looming, let’s first take stock of the historic season unfolding in Ames. One way to measure it is by Sports-Reference.com’s Simple Rating System, which calculates how many points better or worse a team is than an average one in a given season. By SRS, the 2020 Cyclones are in the midst of the school’s best season since 1976 and the third best of the 123 seasons in the database.
So how did the Cyclones bounce back from a season-opening loss to emerge atop the Big 12 with a sliver of a chance to reach the College Football Playoff?
Balance.
“Being balanced is really who we’ve been when we’ve been at our best,” Campbell said earlier this season. “So finding that balance within a game … I really do think it is critical for us becoming the best version of ourselves we can be.”
And while that is quintessential coach speak, Campbell and offensive coordinator Tom Manning have actually balanced the offensive ledger more than in previous seasons.
Iowa State’s pass rate is 51.1 percent, the lowest rate for the team under Campbell. Though quarterback Brock Purdy has seen fewer dropbacks this year (33.1 per game after averaging 40.5 in 2019), the Cyclones have a higher team Total QBR (78.9) and adjusted completion percentage (72.9 percent) this season than any for which data is available.
Balance extends not only to play type but also to who receives targets in the pass game. In Charlie Kolar, a surefire NFL draft pick, Iowa State has the school’s all-time single-season record holder for receiving yards by a tight end. But the team also has nine other players with at least five receptions this season. This represents quite the departure for a team that grew accustomed to keying in on a single, standout wide receiver when players like Hakeem Butler or Allen Lazard competed.
And then there’s Doak Walker candidate Breece Hall. The sophomore leads the country in rushing yards (1,357), and ranks second in rushing yards after contact (721) and total scrimmage yards (1,501) and is tied for second in evaded tackles (33).
Behind Hall and a we-will-get-there-when-we-get-there offensive ethos, Iowa State has adopted an intentionally slow operation, which averages the longest time of possession per play and per drive that Campbell has had in Ames. In one-score games, the Cyclones huddle before 47.1 percent of their offensive snaps, up 12 percentage points from the team’s average over Campbell’s first four seasons.
Within Campbell’s scheme on defense, Iowa State is compressing the pocket and bothering opposing quarterbacks, setting all-time team high-water marks in sack and pressure rate. What’s more impressive about those marks is that the Cyclones haven’t had to sacrifice coverage in pursuit of them: Campbell sends a five-man pass rush on just 10.9 percent of opponent dropbacks, a nearly 15-point drop from last season and by far the lowest rate of his tenure.
In turn, the Cyclone defense is holding opponents to 1.47 points per drive, the second best mark by an ISU defense for any season for which data is available.
All this adds up to Campbell’s most efficient team on both sides of the ball.
This is Matt Campbell’s most efficient squad Iowa State seasons since 2016 — Matt Campbell’s first as head coach — by total efficiency Season Offensive Efficiency Defensive Efficiency Total Efficiency 2020 76.70 73.08 77.74 2017 66.86 70.43 72.82 2018 56.57 65.90 62.36 2019 60.20 64.08 62.13 2016 55.17 36.11 47.82 Source: ESPN Stats & Information Group
There aren’t many college football teams for which curses are used for explanation with such regularity. But in 2020, a year that cursed so many, the Cyclones somehow managed to exorcise its past. They rebounded from being roundly mocked following the season opener to turn away Oklahoma, TCU, Baylor and Texas in the waning moments of one-score games. Historically, that simply doesn’t happen for this team.
A win Saturday would give Iowa State its first conference championship since 1912 and put a giant bow on Ames’s feel-good storyline. The odds are against Campbell and his crew: Oklahoma is the stronger team according to ESPN’s Football Power Index, and the Sooners stand as 5.5-point favorites. But then again, the Cyclones have been comfortable performing the improbable all season long.


fivethirthyeight--2020-12-15--Why Are Some People Hesitant To Trust A COVID-19 Vaccine?

Vaccines are proven to reduce deaths and help end pandemics , but the historic speed that the coronavirus vaccines have @ @ @ @ @ people hesitant to get them .
In this video from ABC News , scientists and @ @ @ @ @ vaccines have changed over time and what it will take for Americans to feel comfortable @ @ @ @ @

Vaccines are proven to reduce deaths and help end pandemics, but the historic speed that the coronavirus vaccines have been developed has made some people hesitant to get them. In this video from ABC News, scientists and researchers discuss how opinions of vaccines have changed over time and what it will take for Americans to feel comfortable getting a COVID-19 vaccine.
What the COVID-19 vaccine means for political battles to come


fivethirthyeight--2020-12-16--Why The Suburbs Have Shifted Blue

Why The Suburbs Have Shifted Blue

President Trump spent the last few months of the presidential campaign appealing to — and sometimes even pleading with — suburban voters .
At a rally in Pennsylvania in October , Trump called out suburban women specifically , saying that “ they should like me more than anybody here tonight because I ended the regulation that destroyed your neighborhood , ” referring to his administration ’ s move to end a government program aimed at reducing segregation in suburban areas .
“ I ended the regulation that brought crime to the suburbs , ” said Trump .
“ [ A @ @ @ @ @ @ @ live the American dream.
” It was plain to see that Trump wasn ’ t talking to all suburbanites , though .
He appeared to have a specific vision of the suburbs in mind : Something like the modern day equivalent of the white , well-to-do characters from 1950s sitcoms who had big , well-manicured lawns and white picket fences , agreed with their neighbors about most things — from which presidential candidate to support to what makes a good tuna casserole — and were , in the past , the targets of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Only this strategy didn ’ t work .
Because this version of suburbia is increasingly hard to find .
Suburban and exurban counties turned away from Trump and toward Democrat Joe Biden in states across the country , including in key battleground states like Pennsylvania and Georgia .
In part , this may be because the suburbs are simply far more diverse than they used to be .
But suburbs have also become increasingly well-educated — and that may actually better explain why so many suburbs and exurbs are turning blue than just @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to Ashley Jardina , a political science professor at Duke University who studies white identity politics , it ’ s not that racial diversity isn ’ t a factor .
Among white people , at least , educational attainment is often a proxy for how open they are to growing racial diversity , with more highly educated white people likely to think increased racial diversity is a good thing .
“ Education is so important because it ’ s intertwined with racial attitudes among white people , ” Jardina said .
No matter @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s clear that communities that were pretty much uniformly white only a few decades ago are now far more racially diverse , with Black , Hispanic and Asian Americans making up larger shares of suburban and exurban populations than ever before .
According to our analysis of data from a “ diversity index ” developed by USA Today that calculates the chance that any two people chosen at random from a given area are of different races or ethnicities , most suburbs have grown at least somewhat more diverse over the past 10 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in some of the states — like Georgia , Wisconsin , Pennsylvania and Michigan — that were pivotal for Biden this year .
On the surface , those demographic shifts may seem like good news for Democrats , since nonwhite voters are much more likely to identify as Democratic than white voters .
But when we dug into how these diversifying parts of the country have actually voted , we didn ’ t find a uniform shift toward Democrats .
Some suburbs that grew more racially diverse over the past decade saw a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ or even moved slightly further into Trump ’ s column .
And other suburbs that didn ’ t diversify much at all still became much bluer in 2020 .
Rather , it was education — and particularly how much more educated a place has gotten over the past 10 years — that was more closely related to increased support for Biden ( especially once accounting for how educated a county was in 2010 ) .
Growing racial diversity in an area was still important , since the suburban counties that saw the biggest @ @ @ @ @ @ @ remained less racially diverse and less educated .
But the political swing among diversifying counties was much less uniform than it was in counties that became more educated .
Take Henry County , Georgia , a mostly exurban part of the Atlanta metropolitan area .
Voters there narrowly backed Hillary Clinton by 4 points in 2016 , but they supported Biden by a whopping 20 points this past November — a 16-point Democratic swing .
What happened ?
Henry County was already pretty diverse , but it became even more so in the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , the share of its Black population is now nearly equal to its white share .
Meanwhile , the share of the population with a college degree grew slightly faster than was typical across other suburban and exurban counties .
This made Henry one of the many increasingly diverse and educated counties in the Atlanta area that shifted to the left from 2016 to 2020 , helping Biden become the first Democratic presidential candidate to carry the state since 1992 .
And it ’ s suburbs like Henry that produced some of the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the 2020 election , according to William Frey , a demographer and senior fellow at the Brookings Institution ’ s Metropolitan Policy Program .
The patterns we observed in Henry County can be seen in suburbs across the Sun Belt .
Shifting suburban populations in states like Texas and Arizona have made presidential elections there much more competitive in a relatively short period of time , while according to Frey , demographic change has been happening in suburban areas in Rust Belt states like Michigan and Wisconsin too , but at a slower @ @ @ @ @ @ @ either more diverse or more educated , but not both ?
Suburban and exurban counties that grew more diverse but did not become more educated still swung toward Biden in 2020 , but by a much smaller margin .
It ’ s especially striking when you compare these places to areas that became much more educated but not more diverse , as those places actually had moved more toward Biden , on average .
Consider Volusia County , Florida , a suburban-exurban county northeast of Orlando in central Florida .
Volusia became marginally @ @ @ @ @ @ @ won it by 14 points after winning it by 13 points in 2016 .
This , despite the fact that Volusia has become more diverse over the past decade , primarily through an increase in its Hispanic population ( although the county is still roughly 70 percent non-Hispanic white ) .
However , the share of Volusia ’ s population with a four-year college degree hasn ’ t increased as much as in other suburban and exurban places .
It ’ s also possible that because the population was less educated as a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ likely to respond to the county ’ s growing diversity by becoming more conservative — canceling out some of the effects of having a growing nonwhite , Democratic-leaning share of the community .
In her own research , Jardina has found similar dynamics at play , although she hasn ’ t focused on the suburbs specifically .
In general , though , Jardina said , “ [ W ] hites who have a higher level of racial identity and live in places where there ’ s been a much greater change in the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ vote conservatively.
” That may help explain why suburban and exurban areas like Volusia County that became notably more diverse but not more educated didn ’ t move as much to the left as places that became more educated but not more diverse .
Take Ottawa County , Michigan , which sits along the coast of Lake Michigan as part of the Grand Rapids metropolitan area .
The county remains pretty Republican , but Trump only carried it by 21 points this year after winning it by 30 points four years ago — @ @ @ @ @ @ @ And although the racial and ethnic makeup of Ottawa ’ s population hasn ’ t changed much since 2010 , the share that holds a bachelor ’ s degree has shot up from 29 percent to 34 percent , which might explain the county ’ s swing .
Overall , the Democratic gains there were part of a larger swing in the traditionally Republican Grand Rapids region that helped Biden carry Michigan .
So what do these trends mean for Democrats — and Republicans — going forward ?
Jardina stressed to us that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ not destiny .
Democrats might struggle to reproduce Biden ’ s strong performance in the suburbs , particularly if their Republican opponents don ’ t rely as heavily on racialized appeals and transparently racist tropes as Trump .
“ The big question mark for me is what happens in these suburban areas in two years or four years if [ Republican candidates ] adopt a similar strategy to Trump but with more competence and decorum , ” Jardina said .
“ I ’ ll put it this way — I don ’ t @ @ @ @ @ @ @ stay competitive in the suburbs.
” On the other hand , both Frey and Jardina said it ’ s possible that the demographic realignment of the suburbs could end up creating a more lasting political shift — one in which the suburbs and exurbs look and vote a lot more like urban areas , and a lot less like more rural places .
Frey predicted , though , that the big political shifts we saw this year in places like the Sun Belt might persist — or even accelerate — simply because they @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of the demographic changes in those areas .
But a lot will depend on Democrats ’ ability to mobilize the diverse groups that now are looking more and more like typical suburban voters .
“ The future of the Democratic Party is clearly with these younger , more diverse , more educated populations , ” Frey said .
“ But they have to figure out how to keep them energized and voting .
”

President Trump spent the last few months of the presidential campaign appealing to — and sometimes even pleading with — suburban voters. At a rally in Pennsylvania in October, Trump called out suburban women specifically, saying that “they should like me more than anybody here tonight because I ended the regulation that destroyed your neighborhood,” referring to his administration’s move to end a government program aimed at reducing segregation in suburban areas. “I ended the regulation that brought crime to the suburbs,” said Trump. “[A]nd you’re going to live the American dream.”
It was plain to see that Trump wasn’t talking to all suburbanites, though. He appeared to have a specific vision of the suburbs in mind: Something like the modern day equivalent of the white, well-to-do characters from 1950s sitcoms who had big, well-manicured lawns and white picket fences, agreed with their neighbors about most things — from which presidential candidate to support to what makes a good tuna casserole — and were, in the past, the targets of racial dog-whistles like Trump’s.
Only this strategy didn’t work. Because this version of suburbia is increasingly hard to find.
The electoral problems facing Republicans | FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast
Suburban and exurban counties turned away from Trump and toward Democrat Joe Biden in states across the country, including in key battleground states like Pennsylvania and Georgia. In part, this may be because the suburbs are simply far more diverse than they used to be. But suburbs have also become increasingly well-educated — and that may actually better explain why so many suburbs and exurbs are turning blue than just increased diversity on its own.
According to Ashley Jardina, a political science professor at Duke University who studies white identity politics, it’s not that racial diversity isn’t a factor. Among white people, at least, educational attainment is often a proxy for how open they are to growing racial diversity, with more highly educated white people likely to think increased racial diversity is a good thing. “Education is so important because it’s intertwined with racial attitudes among white people,” Jardina said.
[Raphael Warnock’s Dog Ads Cut Against White Voters’ Stereotypes Of Black People]
No matter how you slice it, it’s clear that communities that were pretty much uniformly white only a few decades ago are now far more racially diverse, with Black, Hispanic and Asian Americans making up larger shares of suburban and exurban populations than ever before. According to our analysis of data from a “diversity index” developed by USA Today that calculates the chance that any two people chosen at random from a given area are of different races or ethnicities, most suburbs have grown at least somewhat more diverse over the past 10 years. That’s particularly true in some of the states — like Georgia, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan — that were pivotal for Biden this year.
On the surface, those demographic shifts may seem like good news for Democrats, since nonwhite voters are much more likely to identify as Democratic than white voters. But when we dug into how these diversifying parts of the country have actually voted, we didn’t find a uniform shift toward Democrats. Some suburbs that grew more racially diverse over the past decade saw a smaller swing toward Biden than others — or even moved slightly further into Trump’s column. And other suburbs that didn’t diversify much at all still became much bluer in 2020.
‘Those suburban votes were key to putting Biden over the top’: Nate Silver
Rather, it was education — and particularly how much more educated a place has gotten over the past 10 years — that was more closely related to increased support for Biden (especially once accounting for how educated a county was in 2010). Growing racial diversity in an area was still important, since the suburban counties that saw the biggest swing toward Trump were the ones that remained less racially diverse and less educated. But the political swing among diversifying counties was much less uniform than it was in counties that became more educated.
Take Henry County, Georgia, a mostly exurban part of the Atlanta metropolitan area. Voters there narrowly backed Hillary Clinton by 4 points in 2016, but they supported Biden by a whopping 20 points this past November — a 16-point Democratic swing. What happened? Henry County was already pretty diverse, but it became even more so in the past decade. Once majority non-Hispanic white, the share of its Black population is now nearly equal to its white share. Meanwhile, the share of the population with a college degree grew slightly faster than was typical across other suburban and exurban counties. This made Henry one of the many increasingly diverse and educated counties in the Atlanta area that shifted to the left from 2016 to 2020, helping Biden become the first Democratic presidential candidate to carry the state since 1992.
And it’s suburbs like Henry that produced some of the swiftest and most dramatic political shifts of the 2020 election, according to William Frey, a demographer and senior fellow at the Brookings Institution’s Metropolitan Policy Program. The patterns we observed in Henry County can be seen in suburbs across the Sun Belt. Shifting suburban populations in states like Texas and Arizona have made presidential elections there much more competitive in a relatively short period of time, while according to Frey, demographic change has been happening in suburban areas in Rust Belt states like Michigan and Wisconsin too, but at a slower pace.
[Related: How The 2020 Election Changed The Electoral Map]
What about places that become either more diverse or more educated, but not both? Suburban and exurban counties that grew more diverse but did not become more educated still swung toward Biden in 2020, but by a much smaller margin. It’s especially striking when you compare these places to areas that became much more educated but not more diverse, as those places actually had moved more toward Biden, on average.
Consider Volusia County, Florida, a suburban-exurban county northeast of Orlando in central Florida. Volusia became marginally more Republican this year, as Trump won it by 14 points after winning it by 13 points in 2016. This, despite the fact that Volusia has become more diverse over the past decade, primarily through an increase in its Hispanic population (although the county is still roughly 70 percent non-Hispanic white). However, the share of Volusia’s population with a four-year college degree hasn’t increased as much as in other suburban and exurban places.
It’s also possible that because the population was less educated as a whole, the white residents were more likely to respond to the county’s growing diversity by becoming more conservative — canceling out some of the effects of having a growing nonwhite, Democratic-leaning share of the community. In her own research, Jardina has found similar dynamics at play, although she hasn’t focused on the suburbs specifically. In general, though, Jardina said, “[W]hites who have a higher level of racial identity and live in places where there’s been a much greater change in the foreign-born population are much more likely to vote conservatively.”
That may help explain why suburban and exurban areas like Volusia County that became notably more diverse but not more educated didn’t move as much to the left as places that became more educated but not more diverse. Take Ottawa County, Michigan, which sits along the coast of Lake Michigan as part of the Grand Rapids metropolitan area. The county remains pretty Republican, but Trump only carried it by 21 points this year after winning it by 30 points four years ago — a 9-point swing toward the Democrats. And although the racial and ethnic makeup of Ottawa’s population hasn’t changed much since 2010, the share that holds a bachelor’s degree has shot up from 29 percent to 34 percent, which might explain the county’s swing. Overall, the Democratic gains there were part of a larger swing in the traditionally Republican Grand Rapids region that helped Biden carry Michigan.
[Why So Many Men Stuck With Trump In 2020]
So what do these trends mean for Democrats — and Republicans — going forward? Jardina stressed to us that in the short term, demography is not destiny. Democrats might struggle to reproduce Biden’s strong performance in the suburbs, particularly if their Republican opponents don’t rely as heavily on racialized appeals and transparently racist tropes as Trump. “The big question mark for me is what happens in these suburban areas in two years or four years if [Republican candidates] adopt a similar strategy to Trump but with more competence and decorum,” Jardina said. “I’ll put it this way — I don’t think Republicans have lost their opportunity to stay competitive in the suburbs.”
On the other hand, both Frey and Jardina said it’s possible that the demographic realignment of the suburbs could end up creating a more lasting political shift — one in which the suburbs and exurbs look and vote a lot more like urban areas, and a lot less like more rural places. Frey predicted, though, that the big political shifts we saw this year in places like the Sun Belt might persist — or even accelerate — simply because they map better onto the speed and breadth of the demographic changes in those areas. But a lot will depend on Democrats’ ability to mobilize the diverse groups that now are looking more and more like typical suburban voters.
“The future of the Democratic Party is clearly with these younger, more diverse, more educated populations,” Frey said. “But they have to figure out how to keep them energized and voting.”
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Let ’ s say that , early in the week leading up to Nov. 21 , you got a tip that the Pittsburgh Panthers would have multiple players out due to COVID-19 protocols in their upcoming game against Virginia Tech ( something that ’ s been all too common during the 2020 season ) .
The Hokies had just gone 1-3 in four straight one-score games , but by the adjusted scoring margin , they played better than average in all four of them .
The Panthers had been blown out in two of their previous three .
Let ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a 3-point road favorite based on that tip and waited for the news to break — and break it did .
Shortly before the game , Pitt announced that it would play down seven starters and 16 players total .
The line shot up to Virginia Tech -6.5 or -7 , depending on the book .
You would have probably felt secure in this bet cashing since you beat the line by a field goal or more of closing line value .
Virginia Tech also had its own COVID-19 absences ( four starters @ @ @ @ @ @ @ moved , the Hokies were projected by power ratings to cover the initial 3-point spread .
And so you settled in with ticket in hand , only to watch the Panthers absolutely blow the doors off of the Hokies in a 47-14 outright win .
Wait , what ?
It was a quintessential 2020 college football betting story .
During a season that we weren ’ t sure should have been played , things have been rendered even more complicated for people outside the game , whether they ’ re just betting for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a living .
Results like this go beyond tough beats and into a realization that , in yet another way , this year is not normal .
The sport has been uniquely difficult to predict for those trying to find a reliable edge .
Even people who know what they ’ re doing are having weird seasons Simply put : We were behind the eight ball way before the season even started , according to Parker Fleming , a college football analyst and economist .
The difficulty in handicapping this season goes back @ @ @ @ @ @ @ offseason many teams had — or , more accurately , didn ’ t have — thanks to the pandemic .
Out of 130 Football Bowl Subdivision teams , 111 didn ’ t even make it halfway through their 14 allotted spring practices , and 40 percent , including bluebloods Alabama and Texas , didn ’ t get in even one spring practice .
The strange offseason was just the first shock to the prognosticating system .
“ Every good prediction is going to involve some kind of priors — a prior being some @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of the way things should be , ” Fleming said .
“ We know continuity in offseason work really matters .
So without spring and with guys opting out and transfers and all this sort of stuff going on that ’ s unique to this situation and the vast uncertainty , there ’ s a huge shock to priors .
And so that makes things really really hard because you can ’ t really think about the season the same way you ’ d think about a normal year.
” If you want @ @ @ @ @ @ @ football , a great place to start is to build a power ranking .
There are some fancy ways to do it , but you can also just average a team ’ s ratings in a few of the predictive models already out there to make spreads of your own .
One you could include is the SP+ rankings system created by ESPN ’ s Bill Connelly .
Models like Connelly ’ s factor in opponent adjustments and tempo and are weighted in the early season by preseason projections that phase out as @ @ @ @ @ @ @ early-results from skewing a team ’ s rating .
But models are perhaps uniquely suited to miss this season .
Using The Prediction Tracker , we tracked the most accurate systems that put out predictions from 2015-2019 to compare how they ’ re doing in 2020 .
We judged accuracy using the lowest mean absolute error , which tells us how far off a prediction is from the final scoring margin of the game , with anything below 12.5 considered exceptional , according to Connelly .
Combining absolute error and performance against the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a model ’ s accuracy — doing well against the spread with a high absolute error signals that a model is lucky as opposed to actually good .
On average , the systems are picking games straight up less correctly , and their absolute error is 0.55 points worse per game .
So some of the best tracked models in college football predictions are just fine against the spread , but when they miss against the actual scoring margin , they really miss .
“ If you ’ re a good stats-based handicapper @ @ @ @ @ @ @ with a model and you ’ re gon na make manual adjustments afterwards because you know this quarterback ’ s out or this team ’ s checked out or whatever the situation is , ” Connelly said .
“ You ’ re going to be able to manually adjust for those things , and that ’ s not what a model technically does.
” One such handicapper is Bud Elliott , a college football writer for 247Sports.com .
He uses a composite power rating and marries it with his own knowledge of teams @ @ @ @ @ @ @ know that Team A beat Team B by 40 points last week , but it wouldn ’ t know that Team B had barely practiced in the preceding 10 days because contact-tracing protocols are forcing quarantines and on and on .
You have to do that as the bettor , but how exactly do you calibrate it ?
“ If you have a good model , and you know for sure who is out and who they ’ re being replaced by and you have a feel for that , then you should @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , ” Elliott said .
“ I think availability of information this year has been important .
One thing I ’ m not sure how to grasp this year is how much missing practice either for a given week or for a team that is going virtual training for the week or whatever or whatnot is impacted .
It ’ s hard to quantify that .
You need to be able to quantify those things.
” Football and other sports like hockey are consistently opaque in the injury information they issue , a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that secrecy can preserve .
The NFL at least forces teams to produce injury reports several times a week , and the league ’ s COVID-19 protocol reporting is generally good .
But in college football , there ’ s nothing close to standard injury reporting even outside of a pandemic .
That ’ s one of the reasons official inactive reporting runs the gamut of styles from … This ( and it wasn ’ t made clear which of these absences were connected to COVID-19 ) : “ I put that disclaimer @ @ @ @ @ @ @ level of uncertainty “ on my column [ in Week 2 ] like , guys , I really don ’ t know how this is gon na go , ” Elliott said .
“ It ’ s been a little disappointing in some regard.
” Connelly also has a best bets column , in which he selects from games where SP+ ’ s projections disagree with the lines by more than 3 points and also have lines around key numbers ( 13.5 , 2.5 , etc. )
.
He did much better than @ @ @ @ @ @ @ much in 2020 .
“ There is no system this year , ” Connelly said .
“ I ’ m under .500 for best bets this year , and I ’ ll look at trends and do I have a good read on these teams and all of a sudden : no .
It just really is a lot harder to come up with any sort of patterns or any sort of comfort level as far as the types of picks you ’ re looking for.
” So , what about the books @ @ @ @ @ @ @ quite poorly when compared with the actual results of the games .
In fact , the mean absolute prediction error of the line itself hasn ’ t been this high ( 12.96 ) since 2002 .
When you ’ re trying to beat the books , one way to do it is to beat the line to where it ’ s going to end up .
You can do that by generating a power rating yourself for each team and seeing how it measures up against the opening spread for each game .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ your power rating says Team A is -7 against Team B and the opening line has Team A at -2 , then you ’ d think you have an inside track at an advantage , all things being equal ( no injuries or other issues ) .
If you take Team A at -2 , you have a better number than where you believe the line will end up .
This is the concept of chasing closing-line value : When you try to beat the line , you ’ re also trying to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ might move by kickoff six days later .
Ed Salmons , the vice president of risk management at the Westgate SuperBook , laid out his bookmaking philosophy pretty simply : The best bookmaking is about getting to the closing line first .
That ’ s all well and good in a normal year , but this is not a normal year — and playing closing-line value this year is a dangerous game .
“ It ’ s so hard to be betting early in the week when you ’ re fighting for a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and then your team ’ s got some guys at the important positions that have [ COVID-19 ] and you ’ re kind of screwed , ” Salmons said .
The data backs that up to a staggering extent .
From 2015 to 2019 , we found that the line got just 0.04 points per game more accurate between the opening line and midweek , then improved another 0.04 points by the time it closed .
But in 2020 ?
The line ’ s accuracy has increased by 0.52 points per game between @ @ @ @ @ @ @ tracks with something Salmons has noticed : The big plays at his book are now coming later in the week , and high rollers are waiting just like the rest of us to learn what COVID-19 will do to a team ’ s roster .
But as the season has gone on and games have been canceled more frequently ( instead of just postponed ) , some big plays will roll in on games that are at risk of not being played because of COVID-19 .
If the game gets canceled , the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ line itself is missing at a higher rate than normal , favorites are covering at a rate consistent with a normal year .
Through Dec. 15 , college football favorites were 256-258-9 against the spread , while NFL favorites were 92-116 .
The former is normal , but the latter is not .
Lines can adjust in ways that algorithms can ’ t , and the books are keeping tabs on things a little bit more closely than regular folks — even if bookmakers like Salmons are using the same tools as ordinary @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a fancy betting term for cash ) for NFL games is roughly where it should be because the league has brute-forced its way through the pandemic without any game cancellations .
The college handle is lower , but that ’ s largely because of the volume of games lost to cancellation every week .
But when it comes down to the big plays in general , those are part of a broader story about how the pandemic has hurt Las Vegas ’ s bottom line .
Salmons says he ’ s seeing fewer @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
“ You just don ’ t have the tourism out here that you ’ d have in previous years , ” Salmons said .
“ It ’ s such an ordeal now to get on a plane and come out here , and you got to wear the mask everywhere .
It ’ s just harder to get those kinds of people into town ” It might be best to just write these oddities off as a 2020 thing Even if you ’ re just betting for fun , it ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of a Saturday , having used a process you believe to be sound , only to be dealt another week of brutal results .
Turning a profit — whether you ’ re trying to win real money or you just want to puff your chest about your record because you ’ re competitive — is hard , and this year made it much harder .
But chin up : Maybe the tips will be worth something in 2021 .

Let’s say that, early in the week leading up to Nov. 21, you got a tip that the Pittsburgh Panthers would have multiple players out due to COVID-19 protocols in their upcoming game against Virginia Tech (something that’s been all too common during the 2020 season). The Hokies had just gone 1-3 in four straight one-score games, but by the adjusted scoring margin, they played better than average in all four of them. The Panthers had been blown out in two of their previous three.
Let’s say you took Virginia Tech as a 3-point road favorite based on that tip and waited for the news to break — and break it did. Shortly before the game, Pitt announced that it would play down seven starters and 16 players total. The line shot up to Virginia Tech -6.5 or -7, depending on the book. You would have probably felt secure in this bet cashing since you beat the line by a field goal or more of closing line value. Virginia Tech also had its own COVID-19 absences (four starters), but even before the line moved, the Hokies were projected by power ratings to cover the initial 3-point spread.
Who’s the most chaotic fictional football coach? | FiveThirtyEight
And so you settled in with ticket in hand, only to watch the Panthers absolutely blow the doors off of the Hokies in a 47-14 outright win. Wait, what?
It was a quintessential 2020 college football betting story. During a season that we weren’t sure should have been played, things have been rendered even more complicated for people outside the game, whether they’re just betting for fun or rely on it to make a living. Results like this go beyond tough beats and into a realization that, in yet another way, this year is not normal. The sport has been uniquely difficult to predict for those trying to find a reliable edge.
Even people who know what they’re doing are having weird seasons
Simply put: We were behind the eight ball way before the season even started, according to Parker Fleming, a college football analyst and economist.
The difficulty in handicapping this season goes back months if you consider the type of offseason many teams had — or, more accurately, didn’t have — thanks to the pandemic. Out of 130 Football Bowl Subdivision teams, 111 didn’t even make it halfway through their 14 allotted spring practices, and 40 percent, including bluebloods Alabama and Texas, didn’t get in even one spring practice. The strange offseason was just the first shock to the prognosticating system.
“Every good prediction is going to involve some kind of priors — a prior being some sort of belief or assumption or distribution of the way things should be,” Fleming said. “We know continuity in offseason work really matters. So without spring and with guys opting out and transfers and all this sort of stuff going on that’s unique to this situation and the vast uncertainty, there’s a huge shock to priors. And so that makes things really really hard because you can’t really think about the season the same way you’d think about a normal year.”
[Why Are We Still Returning Kicks In College Football?]
If you want to get even semi-serious about betting college football, a great place to start is to build a power ranking. There are some fancy ways to do it, but you can also just average a team’s ratings in a few of the predictive models already out there to make spreads of your own. One you could include is the SP+ rankings system created by ESPN’s Bill Connelly.
Models like Connelly’s factor in opponent adjustments and tempo and are weighted in the early season by preseason projections that phase out as teams play games, which keeps wonky early-results from skewing a team’s rating. But models are perhaps uniquely suited to miss this season.
Using The Prediction Tracker, we tracked the most accurate systems that put out predictions from 2015-2019 to compare how they’re doing in 2020. We judged accuracy using the lowest mean absolute error, which tells us how far off a prediction is from the final scoring margin of the game, with anything below 12.5 considered exceptional, according to Connelly. Combining absolute error and performance against the spread gives us a full picture of a model’s accuracy — doing well against the spread with a high absolute error signals that a model is lucky as opposed to actually good.
Even the best prediction systems are struggling Average winning percentages (straight up and against the spread) and mean absolute error per game for the most accurate* college football computer rating systems from 2015-19 2015-2019 Seasons 2020 Season System Straight up % % vs. spread Mean Error/G Straight up % % vs. spread Mean Error/G Dokter Entropy 74.5% 50.3% 12.68 73.3% 52.3% 13.09 ESPN FPI 74.5 50.3 12.75 74.1 52.1 13.03 Pi-Ratings Mean 74.4 50.9 12.80 71.2 54.5 13.09 Sagarin Ratings 74.0 50.8 12.85 72.0 48.1 13.92 Donchess Inference 73.9 50.8 12.93 75.3 53.7 13.09 Massey Ratings 73.0 50.0 13.13 70.8 49.5 13.79 Moore Power Ratings 73.0 51.0 13.13 70.8 49.0 13.96 ThePowerRank.com 74.0 50.6 13.14 70.6 51.5 13.46 Stat Fox 73.4 49.6 13.16 71.0 52.4 13.89 Catherwood Ratings 74.0 50.6 13.23 71.6 50.5 13.96 Average of top 10 73.9 50.5 12.98 72.1 51.4 13.53 *Based on mean absolute error per game, in which a lower score means a system was more accurate because it came closer to predicting the actual score margin, on average. If multiple versions of a system qualified for the top 10, only the top-performing version is shown. Source: The Prediction Tracker
On average, the systems are picking games straight up less correctly, and their absolute error is 0.55 points worse per game. So some of the best tracked models in college football predictions are just fine against the spread, but when they miss against the actual scoring margin, they really miss.
“If you’re a good stats-based handicapper, you’re gonna start with a model and you’re gonna make manual adjustments afterwards because you know this quarterback’s out or this team’s checked out or whatever the situation is,” Connelly said. “You’re going to be able to manually adjust for those things, and that’s not what a model technically does.”
One such handicapper is Bud Elliott, a college football writer for 247Sports.com. He uses a composite power rating and marries it with his own knowledge of teams and players. A team-based model would know that Team A beat Team B by 40 points last week, but it wouldn’t know that Team B had barely practiced in the preceding 10 days because contact-tracing protocols are forcing quarantines and on and on. You have to do that as the bettor, but how exactly do you calibrate it?
[The Secret To Iowa State’s Improbable Season? Balance.]
“If you have a good model, and you know for sure who is out and who they’re being replaced by and you have a feel for that, then you should be able to adjust your numbers appropriately,” Elliott said. “I think availability of information this year has been important. One thing I’m not sure how to grasp this year is how much missing practice either for a given week or for a team that is going virtual training for the week or whatever or whatnot is impacted. It’s hard to quantify that. You need to be able to quantify those things.”
Football and other sports like hockey are consistently opaque in the injury information they issue, a problem rooted in the perceived competitive advantage that secrecy can preserve. The NFL at least forces teams to produce injury reports several times a week, and the league’s COVID-19 protocol reporting is generally good. But in college football, there’s nothing close to standard injury reporting even outside of a pandemic. That’s one of the reasons official inactive reporting runs the gamut of styles from …
This (and it wasn’t made clear which of these absences were connected to COVID-19):
The following Georgia Southern players (in alphabetical order) are inactive for today’s football game against Campbell and will not dress for the contest:#HailSouthern pic.twitter.com/D9DfCIEsuZ — Georgia Southern Football (@GSAthletics_FB) September 12, 2020
To this:
Tonight’s Unavailability Report pic.twitter.com/AvFUsAdGJJ — Virginia Tech Football (@HokiesFB) September 26, 2020
“I put that disclaimer” about the season’s high level of uncertainty “on my column [in Week 2] like, guys, I really don’t know how this is gonna go,” Elliott said. “It’s been a little disappointing in some regard.”
Connelly also has a best bets column, in which he selects from games where SP+’s projections disagree with the lines by more than 3 points and also have lines around key numbers (13.5, 2.5, etc.). He did much better than 50 percent in 2019. Not so much in 2020.
“There is no system this year,” Connelly said. “I’m under .500 for best bets this year, and I’ll look at trends and do I have a good read on these teams and all of a sudden: no. It just really is a lot harder to come up with any sort of patterns or any sort of comfort level as far as the types of picks you’re looking for.”
So, what about the books?
The lines themselves are also performing quite poorly when compared with the actual results of the games. In fact, the mean absolute prediction error of the line itself hasn’t been this high (12.96) since 2002.
When you’re trying to beat the books, one way to do it is to beat the line to where it’s going to end up. You can do that by generating a power rating yourself for each team and seeing how it measures up against the opening spread for each game. If you do this on Sunday and your power rating says Team A is -7 against Team B and the opening line has Team A at -2, then you’d think you have an inside track at an advantage, all things being equal (no injuries or other issues). If you take Team A at -2, you have a better number than where you believe the line will end up. This is the concept of chasing closing-line value: When you try to beat the line, you’re also trying to beat the book to where the line might move by kickoff six days later.
Ed Salmons, the vice president of risk management at the Westgate SuperBook, laid out his bookmaking philosophy pretty simply: The best bookmaking is about getting to the closing line first. That’s all well and good in a normal year, but this is not a normal year — and playing closing-line value this year is a dangerous game.
“It’s so hard to be betting early in the week when you’re fighting for a number that you think is good, and then your team’s got some guys at the important positions that have [COVID-19] and you’re kind of screwed,” Salmons said.
[How Coastal Carolina Invaded The Top 15 (And Our Hearts)]
The data backs that up to a staggering extent. From 2015 to 2019, we found that the line got just 0.04 points per game more accurate between the opening line and midweek, then improved another 0.04 points by the time it closed. But in 2020? The line’s accuracy has increased by 0.52 points per game between the opener and midweek.
This all tracks with something Salmons has noticed: The big plays at his book are now coming later in the week, and high rollers are waiting just like the rest of us to learn what COVID-19 will do to a team’s roster. But as the season has gone on and games have been canceled more frequently (instead of just postponed), some big plays will roll in on games that are at risk of not being played because of COVID-19. If the game gets canceled, the bet just gets refunded.
While the line itself is missing at a higher rate than normal, favorites are covering at a rate consistent with a normal year. Through Dec. 15, college football favorites were 256-258-9 against the spread, while NFL favorites were 92-116. The former is normal, but the latter is not.
Lines can adjust in ways that algorithms can’t, and the books are keeping tabs on things a little bit more closely than regular folks — even if bookmakers like Salmons are using the same tools as ordinary bettors. Salmons says the handle (a fancy betting term for cash) for NFL games is roughly where it should be because the league has brute-forced its way through the pandemic without any game cancellations. The college handle is lower, but that’s largely because of the volume of games lost to cancellation every week.
After five weeks in a row of college football's week-over-week games played percentage declining, it increased in Week 14, but the overall percentage still dropped. For the season, 81.1 percent of the games scheduled have been played. pic.twitter.com/ov1cM2CbIR — Andy Wittry (@AndyWittry) December 6, 2020
But when it comes down to the big plays in general, those are part of a broader story about how the pandemic has hurt Las Vegas’s bottom line. Salmons says he’s seeing fewer big players — and fewer huge plays.
“You just don’t have the tourism out here that you’d have in previous years,” Salmons said. “It’s such an ordeal now to get on a plane and come out here, and you got to wear the mask everywhere. It’s just harder to get those kinds of people into town”
It might be best to just write these oddities off as a 2020 thing
Even if you’re just betting for fun, it’s still frustrating to get to the end of a Saturday, having used a process you believe to be sound, only to be dealt another week of brutal results. Turning a profit — whether you’re trying to win real money or you just want to puff your chest about your record because you’re competitive — is hard, and this year made it much harder. But chin up: Maybe the tips will be worth something in 2021.
Neil Paine contributed research.


fivethirthyeight--2020-12-16--The Oregon Ducks Lost Three Stars To The WNBA, But They Haven’t Lost A Step

At Oregon , Kelly Graves ’ s teams are no stranger to putting up obscenely efficient offensive numbers .
The Ducks led the nation in points per 100 possessions last season and the season before that .
But surely , the loss of Sabrina Ionescu , Ruthy Hebard and Satou Sabally — a generational point guard , a ruthless finisher in the paint and a dynamic , versatile big wing , respectively — would lead to some drop-off in how devastating the Ducks are on the offensive end , right ?
Well , the answer through five games is : @ @ @ @ @ @ @ per 100 possessions in 2019-20 ?
123.5 .
So far in 2020-21 ?
123.1 .
After walking into Corvallis and destroying archrival Oregon State 79-59 on Sunday night — a score that understates the level of dominance by Oregon , honestly — Graves wasn ’ t shying away from the idea that this might be his best team yet .
“ I keep saying this is one of the best shooting , if not the best shooting , team I ’ ve ever had , ” Graves said to reporters following the game @ @ @ @ @ @ @ I think , tonight .
You saw a lot of why I ’ m so excited about that.
” This Oregon team dismantles opponents in waves rather than through a trio of mismatches , the way the Ionescu/Hebard/Sabally group did .
At least 10 different Ducks have scored in each of the team ’ s first five games , a reflection of the lopsided scores that allow Graves to empty his bench and the level of talent that enters the game when he does .
Five Oregon Ducks are averaging double figures so @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a different offensive game .
Te-Hina Paopao has picked up Ionescu ’ s offense-leading duties , fearlessly penetrating and hitting her pullup jumpers in about equal measure , with a field-goal percentage at 50 percent from three and 54.2 percent from inside the arc .
Her assist percentage of 29.9 is solid , and she ’ s not turning the ball over much ( at 14.8 percent ) despite having it in her hands often .
For reference , Ionescu ’ s turnover percentage in her last Oregon season was 17.6 percent .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ dangerous is she ’ s playing next to Taylor Mikesell , a Maryland transfer who shot the ball well during her two years as a Terrapin but has found another level in Eugene .
She entered Sunday ’ s game shooting 59.1 percent on 3-pointers , a seemingly unsustainable rate .
Well , she surpassed it against one of the best defensive teams in the Pac-12 , hitting 5-of-8 from deep .
Now she ’ s up to an even 60 percent on threes and 70 percent on twos — a number usually @ @ @ @ @ @ @ most rim-centric interior scorers .
Mikesell said she ’ s never gotten better looks at the basket in her career .
The ensemble forces defenses to choose .
“ I think it speaks to our depth , to just the fact that every single person on our team can shoot the ball , ” Mikesell said Sunday night .
“ You have to just guard everybody .
Honestly , you have to put a hand up , you have to guard them .
So there ’ s less time to be focused on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ an example of what happens when a defense tries to double off of Mikesell .
But that takes us to the player who drew that double , 6-foot-7 Sedona Prince , who ’ s averaging 10 points per game even as she ’ s navigating some early-season injuries .
She ’ s not just hard to contain at the rim , either — she ’ s capable of extending out to the foul line too , like this : That combination of skills can push teams to double Prince , sure .
But @ @ @ @ @ @ @ sure your big stays home on her defensively .
And that is a problem , too — guarding most of Oregon ’ s talented bigs — because Paopao is a capable scorer from all three levels .
Here ’ s what that looks like in practice , with a defense forced to give Paopao a wide-open midrange .
Oregon does have continuity of sorts in its starting lineup relative to last year .
No , the Ducks don ’ t have Satou Sabally , but they do have a Sabally : Satou ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ up a superficially similar debut season for the Ducks to her sister , though Nyara is a redshirt sophomore after knee injuries cost her the past two campaigns .
Satou averaged 10.7 points per game in her first year , Nyara checks in at 10.6 so far .
But Nyara is far more efficient already , at 65.7 percent from the field , while Satou shot 46.1 percent , and Nyara ’ s 7.4 rebounds per game is about twice Satou ’ s 3.8 per game in 2017-18 .
And we haven ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ tacked on to the end of his comment about the deepest shooting team he ’ s ever had : “ And Boley didn ’ t even have one of her normal nights !
” That would be Erin Boley , the leading scorer for Oregon so far this season , checking in at 14.2 points per game .
She ’ s an inherent mismatch for opposing wings , at a strong 6-foot-2 , and she ’ s had pro-ready capacity from 3-point range since high school , hitting 39.5 percent of her threes @ @ @ @ @ @ @ at or above 40 percent in each of her three years at Oregon since transferring .
The Ducks are putting up all of this production without having to log starters ’ minutes , either .
Paopao is at 23.2 minutes per game , leading her team while playing just over half the allotted time .
“ The nice thing is we , we have a good bench that can come in and give her some rest , ” Graves said of Paopao .
“ You know , we don ’ t drop off @ @ @ @ @ @ @ averaged 33.7 minutes per game last year , Sabally 28.8 , Hebard 28.7 .
All five starters were above 24 .
The resulting fresh legs may account for this , too : Oregon allowed 84.2 points per 100 possessions last year , good for 47th in the country .
So far this season , they are at 71.1 — 10th in the country — though that is likely to rise once the Ducks play deeper in the Pac-12 .
But three of their five opponents already have been conference foes , so this @ @ @ @ @ @ @ beating up on nonconference teams .
Again , this is an Oregon team that is likely to get even better .
Graves noted that Prince and Sabally didn ’ t practice much this past week .
As the team coalesces , the torrid start may serve as a floor for what they are capable of .
“ We have a lot of different ways we can get different people shots when they ’ re feeling it , when they ’ re having those kind of nights — you know , both inside and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ So I just think we have a pretty well-rounded team .
”

At Oregon, Kelly Graves’s teams are no stranger to putting up obscenely efficient offensive numbers.
The Ducks led the nation in points per 100 possessions last season and the season before that. But surely, the loss of Sabrina Ionescu, Ruthy Hebard and Satou Sabally — a generational point guard, a ruthless finisher in the paint and a dynamic, versatile big wing, respectively — would lead to some drop-off in how devastating the Ducks are on the offensive end, right?
Well, the answer through five games is: not so much. The Oregon points per 100 possessions in 2019-20? 123.5. So far in 2020-21? 123.1.
After walking into Corvallis and destroying archrival Oregon State 79-59 on Sunday night — a score that understates the level of dominance by Oregon, honestly — Graves wasn’t shying away from the idea that this might be his best team yet.
“I keep saying this is one of the best shooting, if not the best shooting, team I’ve ever had,” Graves said to reporters following the game. “… We showed it, I think, tonight. You saw a lot of why I’m so excited about that.”
This Oregon team dismantles opponents in waves rather than through a trio of mismatches, the way the Ionescu/Hebard/Sabally group did. At least 10 different Ducks have scored in each of the team’s first five games, a reflection of the lopsided scores that allow Graves to empty his bench and the level of talent that enters the game when he does.
Five Oregon Ducks are averaging double figures so far this year, and each has a different offensive game. Te-Hina Paopao has picked up Ionescu’s offense-leading duties, fearlessly penetrating and hitting her pullup jumpers in about equal measure, with a field-goal percentage at 50 percent from three and 54.2 percent from inside the arc. Her assist percentage of 29.9 is solid, and she’s not turning the ball over much (at 14.8 percent) despite having it in her hands often. For reference, Ionescu’s turnover percentage in her last Oregon season was 17.6 percent.
But part of what makes Paopao so dangerous is she’s playing next to Taylor Mikesell, a Maryland transfer who shot the ball well during her two years as a Terrapin but has found another level in Eugene. She entered Sunday’s game shooting 59.1 percent on 3-pointers, a seemingly unsustainable rate. Well, she surpassed it against one of the best defensive teams in the Pac-12, hitting 5-of-8 from deep. Now she’s up to an even 60 percent on threes and 70 percent on twos — a number usually out of reach for all but the most rim-centric interior scorers.
Mikesell said she’s never gotten better looks at the basket in her career. The ensemble forces defenses to choose.
“I think it speaks to our depth, to just the fact that every single person on our team can shoot the ball,” Mikesell said Sunday night. “You have to just guard everybody. Honestly, you have to put a hand up, you have to guard them. So there’s less time to be focused on just one person.”
Here’s an example of what happens when a defense tries to double off of Mikesell.
Another one for @TMikesell23! She's 3-of-5 from deep and has 9 of Oregon's 14 points so far in this one. Ducks lead 14-9. #GoDucks pic.twitter.com/ErkMviSVcD — Oregon Women’s Basketball (@OregonWBB) December 14, 2020
But that takes us to the player who drew that double, 6-foot-7 Sedona Prince, who’s averaging 10 points per game even as she’s navigating some early-season injuries. She’s not just hard to contain at the rim, either — she’s capable of extending out to the foul line too, like this:
That combination of skills can push teams to double Prince, sure. But it also means you have to make sure your big stays home on her defensively. And that is a problem, too — guarding most of Oregon’s talented bigs — because Paopao is a capable scorer from all three levels. Here’s what that looks like in practice, with a defense forced to give Paopao a wide-open midrange.
.@tehinapaopao12 knocks down the jumper 👊 Ducks and Beavers going back-and-forth here in the second. Oregon leads 32-22 with 3:30 left before halftime. #GoDucks pic.twitter.com/eYqFcL3faD — Oregon Women’s Basketball (@OregonWBB) December 14, 2020
Oregon does have continuity of sorts in its starting lineup relative to last year. No, the Ducks don’t have Satou Sabally, but they do have a Sabally: Satou’s sister Nyara, who is putting up a superficially similar debut season for the Ducks to her sister, though Nyara is a redshirt sophomore after knee injuries cost her the past two campaigns. Satou averaged 10.7 points per game in her first year, Nyara checks in at 10.6 so far. But Nyara is far more efficient already, at 65.7 percent from the field, while Satou shot 46.1 percent, and Nyara’s 7.4 rebounds per game is about twice Satou’s 3.8 per game in 2017-18.
And we haven’t even gotten to the addendum Graves tacked on to the end of his comment about the deepest shooting team he’s ever had: “And Boley didn’t even have one of her normal nights!”
That would be Erin Boley, the leading scorer for Oregon so far this season, checking in at 14.2 points per game. She’s an inherent mismatch for opposing wings, at a strong 6-foot-2, and she’s had pro-ready capacity from 3-point range since high school, hitting 39.5 percent of her threes as a freshman at Notre Dame and at or above 40 percent in each of her three years at Oregon since transferring.
The Ducks are putting up all of this production without having to log starters’ minutes, either. Paopao is at 23.2 minutes per game, leading her team while playing just over half the allotted time.
“The nice thing is we, we have a good bench that can come in and give her some rest,” Graves said of Paopao. “You know, we don’t drop off a lot.”
For comparison: Ionescu averaged 33.7 minutes per game last year, Sabally 28.8, Hebard 28.7. All five starters were above 24.
The resulting fresh legs may account for this, too: Oregon allowed 84.2 points per 100 possessions last year, good for 47th in the country. So far this season, they are at 71.1 — 10th in the country — though that is likely to rise once the Ducks play deeper in the Pac-12. But three of their five opponents already have been conference foes, so this isn’t just a question of beating up on nonconference teams.
Again, this is an Oregon team that is likely to get even better. Graves noted that Prince and Sabally didn’t practice much this past week. As the team coalesces, the torrid start may serve as a floor for what they are capable of.
“We have a lot of different ways we can get different people shots when they’re feeling it, when they’re having those kind of nights — you know, both inside and outside,” Graves said. ”So I just think we have a pretty well-rounded team.”
He’s not wrong.


fivethirthyeight--2020-12-15--Biden’s Cabinet Could Be The First To Include At Least As Many Women As Men