fivethirthyeight--2020-09-08--A Big Chunk of White Americans With Degrees And People Of Color Are Behind Trump

The overarching story of recent American elections is that 1 ) voters of color , who have long been Democratic-leaning , are a growing share of the electorate ; 2 ) white voters with college degrees are increasingly shifting to the Democrats ; and 3 ) white voters without degrees are aligning more with the GOP .
But those trends , because they get so much focus , can warp our understanding of the electorate as it exists right now .
Demographics are not yet destiny in American elections — millions of people don ’ t align with the party @ @ @ @ @ @ @ predict .
Case in point : In 2016 , more than a third of President Trump ’ s support nationally came from non-Hispanic white Americans with college degrees ( 26 percent ) and Asian , Black and Hispanic voters ( 12 percent ) , according to Pew Research Center data .
On the flip side , about a quarter of Hillary Clinton ’ s supporters were non-Hispanic white Americans without degrees .
White Americans without degrees aren ’ t as likely to vote for Trump as in 2016 , according to polls — @ @ @ @ @ @ @ national polls and key swing states like Pennsylvania .
But a big reason Trump could still win the Electoral College , despite the poor marks Americans give him for his handling of COVID-19 and his job performance overall , is that the Black , Hispanic and college-educated white voters who backed him in 2016 are largely still with him , particularly in key swing states .
In other words , while Trump is a radical departure from previous GOP candidates in terms of personal style and his frequent racist comments , voters haven @ @ @ @ @ @ @ amid his rise in U.S. politics — the Americans who voted for Mitt Romney in 2012 overwhelmingly backed Trump in 2016 ( about 90 percent ) and those backed who Trump in 2016 are overwhelmingly behind him in 2020 ( about 94 percent ) .
That fact helps explain how Trump won in 2016 and why he might still come back in 2020 .
Here ’ s a more detailed look at those three groups : Polls suggest white people with college degrees nationally are likely to be more supportive of Biden than @ @ @ @ @ @ @ suggests that Clinton won whites with degrees by 17 percentage points , while Biden leads among them by 23 percentage points . )
But Biden ’ s advantage with white Americans with college degrees varies a lot by state , and that ’ s key .
In Democratic-leaning swing states such as Maine , New Hampshire and Minnesota , only about a third of white voters with college degrees are supporting Trump , according to recent polls .
That ’ s why he may not win any of those three states , even @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the more pro-Trump demographic groups — account for the majority of voters in all three .
This represents a continuation of what we ’ ve seen over the last four years — polls showed college-educated white voters in Maine and Minnesota , in particular , were significantly more Democratic-leaning than those in the rest of the country in 2016 and 2018 .
The good news for Trump is that white voters with degrees in the South remain more conservative-leaning than those in other regions of the country .
Polls suggest a majority of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ prefer Trump over Biden — as do more than 40 percent in Florida and North Carolina .
Again , this isn ’ t too surprising : In 2018 , white liberals nationally and in their states were enamored with Georgia Democratic gubernatorial candidate Stacey Abrams and Texas Democratic U.S. Senate candidate Beto O ’ Rourke .
But white college graduates overall preferred Abrams and O ’ Rourke ’ s GOP opponents — by double digits in both races .
White voters with degrees in Georgia and Texas remaining fairly pro-Trump is hugely important @ @ @ @ @ @ @ state , it would severely complicate his path to winning 270 electoral votes .
But he ’ s effectively tied in Georgia and Texas — even as white voters without degrees are a clear minority of the electorate in both states ( just 32 percent in Texas and 36 percent in Georgia ) .
Outside of the South , a clear majority of white college graduates prefer Biden to Trump in most battleground states .
In fact , it ’ s likely that white voters with degrees will vote Democratic at higher rates @ @ @ @ @ @ @ said , at least a third of white college graduates are likely to back Trump in basically every swing state .
What ’ s keeping this bloc with Trump ?
Many of these voters are simply longtime Republicans who hold conservative views .
But particularly in Georgia and Texas , it ’ s worth thinking about religion and race .
Being white and also an evangelical Protestant is strongly correlated with voting Republican — much more so than being white and not having a college degree .
According to data provided to us @ @ @ @ @ @ @ polling initiative , Georgia ranks seventh among states in terms of the percentage of its white registered voters who are evangelical Protestants ( about a third ) , with North Carolina 10th and Texas 13th .
For comparison , Virginia is the state that backed Hillary Clinton in 2016 with the highest percentage of its white registered voters who are evangelical Protestants — it was 17th among the 50 states by this measure .
In its surveys , Democracy Fund + UCLA Nationscape asks respondents their views on issues like whether they prefer @ @ @ @ @ @ @ same race and whether they agree or disagree with statements like , “ Generations of slavery and discrimination have created conditions that make it difficult for Blacks to work their way out of the lower class.
” Robert Griffin , research director for the Democracy Fund Voter Study Group , analyzed responses to these questions to create an overall “ score ” for voters on their racial attitudes .
Georgia ’ s white registered voters are more likely to express more negative sentiments about people of color than those in all but nine @ @ @ @ @ @ @ likely than white registered voters in other states to reject the view that slavery and discrimination are holding back Black people and more likely to be unsupportive of their relatives dating people outside of their race . )
Florida ( No .
11 ) , Texas ( No .
12 ) and North Carolina ( No .
13 ) rank similarly on these measures of racial attitudes .
Again , for comparison , the blue state where white registered voters hold the highest level of negative attitudes about minorities by this measure is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the 50 states .
So while white voters with college degrees are often portrayed as a monolith , and a Democratic monolith at that … they ’ re not .
And that fact is crucial to Trump ’ s reelection chances .
Polls suggest between a quarter and a third of Hispanics nationally are backing Trump — fairly similar to 2016 .
And like in 2016 , a sizable bloc of Hispanics in Arizona , Florida and Texas — three important swing states that have fairly large Hispanic electorates — are likely to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ last two decades have shown about 30 percent of Hispanics identity as Republican .
And despite his nasty rhetoric toward Mexico in particular , about as many Hispanics backed Trump as other recent Republican presidential nominees .
As we wrote in 2018 , there are plenty of explanations for that enduring pro-Trump Hispanic bloc : the anti-abortion views and Catholic and evangelical faiths of some Hispanic Americans ; the priorization of issues like jobs over immigration policy for many Hispanic voters , and the longtime courting of Hispanic voters by the GOP in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , again , the fact that the bottom hasn ’ t dropped out of Trump ’ s support among Hispanic voters is hugely significant to his continued competitiveness .
Polls suggest about 10 percent of black voters both nationally and in key swing states with large black electorates are supporting Trump .
That is similar to 2016 as well and again reflects broader partisan dynamics — surveys over the last three decades have shown about one of every 10 Black Americans identifies as a Republican .
If the race is really tight , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Black support could be critical .
In an analysis of the 2016 election , Griffin , John Halpin and Ruy Teixeira argued that Clinton would have won Michigan and Pennsylvania if Black voters in those states had supported her at the levels they did Barack Obama .
( About 95 percent of black voters in those states backed Obama , and about 90 percent supported Clinton . )
I don ’ t want to belabor that point too much — the Clinton-Trump matchup in those two states was so close that basically any @ @ @ @ @ @ @ would have won it for Clinton .
And it ’ s not surprising that black voters supported Obama , the first-ever Black president , at slightly higher levels than they did Clinton .
But again , the bottom hasn ’ t fallen out for Trump among Black voters — he is basically as popular as previous GOP candidates .
Last month ’ s Republican National Convention featured a lot of non-white speakers for a party whose voters are more than 80 percent white , and I think this analysis explains why .
In @ @ @ @ @ @ @ by further growing the GOP ’ s advantage among white voters without degrees , who are likely to represent more than 40 percent of the electorate .
That might happen to some extent , particularly among white men .
But polls suggest that white women without degrees won ’ t be as GOP-leaning in 2020 as they were in 2016 , either because they like Biden more than Clinton , have grown tired of Trump or some combination of both .
So Trump probably needs the white college graduates and Black and Hispanic @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and perhaps a few more , to back him again to win this election .
And they might .
Make sure to check out FiveThirtyEight ’ s presidential forecast in full ; you can also see all the 2020 polls we ’ ve collected , including national polls , Colorado polls , Florida polls , Michigan polls , Minnesota polls , North Carolina polls and … well … all the states , really .

Perry Bacon Jr. (perry.bacon@fivethirtyeight.com)

The overarching story of recent American elections is that 1) voters of color, who have long been Democratic-leaning, are a growing share of the electorate; 2) white voters with college degrees are increasingly shifting to the Democrats; and 3) white voters without degrees are aligning more with the GOP. But those trends, because they get so much focus, can warp our understanding of the electorate as it exists right now. Demographics are not yet destiny in American elections — millions of people don’t align with the party their race and ethnicity or education would predict. Case in point: In 2016, more than a third of President Trump’s support nationally came from non-Hispanic white Americans with college degrees (26 percent) and Asian, Black and Hispanic voters (12 percent), according to Pew Research Center data. On the flip side, about a quarter of Hillary Clinton’s supporters were non-Hispanic white Americans without degrees.
White Americans without degrees aren’t as likely to vote for Trump as in 2016, according to polls — which partly explains why Biden leads in national polls and key swing states like Pennsylvania. But a big reason Trump could still win the Electoral College, despite the poor marks Americans give him for his handling of COVID-19 and his job performance overall, is that the Black, Hispanic and college-educated white voters who backed him in 2016 are largely still with him, particularly in key swing states.
In other words, while Trump is a radical departure from previous GOP candidates in terms of personal style and his frequent racist comments, voters haven’t radically changed their voting patterns amid his rise in U.S. politics — the Americans who voted for Mitt Romney in 2012 overwhelmingly backed Trump in 2016 (about 90 percent) and those who backed Trump in 2016 are overwhelmingly behind him in 2020 (about 94 percent).
That fact helps explain how Trump won in 2016 and why he might still come back in 2020. Here’s a more detailed look at those three groups:
College-educated white voters
Polls suggest white people with college degrees nationally are likely to be more supportive of Biden than they were Clinton. (Pew data suggests that Clinton won whites with degrees by 17 percentage points, while Biden leads among them by 23 percentage points.)
But Biden’s advantage with white Americans with college degrees varies a lot by state, and that’s key. In Democratic-leaning swing states such as Maine, New Hampshire and Minnesota, only about a third of white voters with college degrees are supporting Trump, according to recent polls. That’s why he may not win any of those three states, even as whites without degrees — one of the more pro-Trump demographic groups — account for the majority of voters in all three. This represents a continuation of what we’ve seen over the last four years — polls showed college-educated white voters in Maine and Minnesota, in particular, were significantly more Democratic-leaning than those in the rest of the country in 2016 and 2018.
The good news for Trump is that white voters with degrees in the South remain more conservative-leaning than those in other regions of the country. Polls suggest a majority of white college graduates in Georgia and Texas prefer Trump over Biden — as do more than 40 percent in Florida and North Carolina. Again, this isn’t too surprising: In 2018, white liberals nationally and in their states were enamored with Georgia Democratic gubernatorial candidate Stacey Abrams and Texas Democratic U.S. Senate candidate Beto O’Rourke. But white college graduates overall preferred Abrams and O’Rourke’s GOP opponents — by double digits in both races.
White voters with degrees in Georgia and Texas remaining fairly pro-Trump is hugely important. If he were to lose either state, it would severely complicate his path to winning 270 electoral votes. But he’s effectively tied in Georgia and Texas — even as white voters without degrees are a clear minority of the electorate in both states (just 32 percent in Texas and 36 percent in Georgia).
Outside of the South, a clear majority of white college graduates prefer Biden to Trump in most battleground states. In fact, it’s likely that white voters with degrees will vote Democratic at higher rates than in any recent reelection. That said, at least a third of white college graduates are likely to back Trump in basically every swing state.
What’s keeping this bloc with Trump? Many of these voters are simply longtime Republicans who hold conservative views. But particularly in Georgia and Texas, it’s worth thinking about religion and race. Being white and also an evangelical Protestant is strongly correlated with voting Republican — much more so than being white and not having a college degree. According to data provided to us from the Democracy Fund + UCLA Nationscape polling initiative, Georgia ranks seventh among states in terms of the percentage of its white registered voters who are evangelical Protestants (about a third), with North Carolina 10th and Texas 13th. For comparison, Virginia is the state that backed Hillary Clinton in 2016 with the highest percentage of its white registered voters who are evangelical Protestants — it was 17th among the 50 states by this measure.
In its surveys, Democracy Fund + UCLA Nationscape asks respondents their views on issues like whether they prefer their relatives to marry someone of the same race and whether they agree or disagree with statements like, “Generations of slavery and discrimination have created conditions that make it difficult for Blacks to work their way out of the lower class.” Robert Griffin, research director for the Democracy Fund Voter Study Group, analyzed responses to these questions to create an overall “score” for voters on their racial attitudes. Georgia’s white registered voters are more likely to express more negative sentiments about people of color than those in all but nine states. (So they are more likely than white registered voters in other states to reject the view that slavery and discrimination are holding back Black people and more likely to be unsupportive of their relatives dating people outside of their race.)
Florida (No. 11), Texas (No. 12) and North Carolina (No. 13) rank similarly on these measures of racial attitudes. Again, for comparison, the blue state where white registered voters hold the highest level of negative attitudes about minorities by this measure is Delaware, which is 17th highest of the 50 states.
So while white voters with college degrees are often portrayed as a monolith, and a Democratic monolith at that … they’re not. And that fact is crucial to Trump’s reelection chances.
Hispanic voters
Polls suggest between a quarter and a third of Hispanics nationally are backing Trump — fairly similar to 2016. And like in 2016, a sizable bloc of Hispanics in Arizona, Florida and Texas — three important swing states that have fairly large Hispanic electorates — are likely to back the president.
Polls for the last two decades have shown about 30 percent of Hispanics identity as Republican. And despite his nasty rhetoric toward Mexico in particular, about as many Hispanics backed Trump as other recent Republican presidential nominees. As we wrote in 2018, there are plenty of explanations for that enduring pro-Trump Hispanic bloc: the anti-abortion views and Catholic and evangelical faiths of some Hispanic Americans ; the priorization of issues like jobs over immigration policy for many Hispanic voters, and the longtime courting of Hispanic voters by the GOP in Florida and Texas in particular.
But, again, the fact that the bottom hasn’t dropped out of Trump’s support among Hispanic voters is hugely significant to his continued competitiveness.
Black voters
Polls suggest about 10 percent of black voters both nationally and in key swing states with large black electorates are supporting Trump. That is similar to 2016 as well and again reflects broader partisan dynamics — surveys over the last three decades have shown about one of every 10 Black Americans identifies as a Republican.
If the race is really tight, Trump’s maintaining this sliver of Black support could be critical. In an analysis of the 2016 election, Griffin, John Halpin and Ruy Teixeira argued that Clinton would have won Michigan and Pennsylvania if Black voters in those states had supported her at the levels they did Barack Obama. (About 95 percent of black voters in those states backed Obama, and about 90 percent supported Clinton.)
I don’t want to belabor that point too much — the Clinton-Trump matchup in those two states was so close that basically any increase in support among any demographic group would have won it for Clinton. And it’s not surprising that black voters supported Obama, the first-ever Black president, at slightly higher levels than they did Clinton. But again, the bottom hasn’t fallen out for Trump among Black voters — he is basically as popular as previous GOP candidates.
Last month’s Republican National Convention featured a lot of non-white speakers for a party whose voters are more than 80 percent white, and I think this analysis explains why. In theory, Trump could win this election by further growing the GOP’s advantage among white voters without degrees, who are likely to represent more than 40 percent of the electorate. That might happen to some extent, particularly among white men. But polls suggest that white women without degrees won’t be as GOP-leaning in 2020 as they were in 2016, either because they like Biden more than Clinton, have grown tired of Trump or some combination of both. So Trump probably needs the white college graduates and Black and Hispanic voters who backed him in 2016, and perhaps a few more, to back him again to win this election. And they might.
Make sure to check out FiveThirtyEight’s presidential forecast in full; you can also see all the 2020 polls we’ve collected, including national polls, Colorado polls, Florida polls, Michigan polls, Minnesota polls, North Carolina polls and … well … all the states, really.


fivethirthyeight--2020-09-08--We Previewed Both Kinds Of Football For You

We start with the return of the NFL .
That ’ s right : Professional football is back this week ; on Thursday , the Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs will take on the Houston Texans , who just locked down quarterback Deshaun Watson with a contract extension that nearly matched the per-year record of his Week 1 opponent , Patrick Mahomes .
There ’ s been a lot of quarterback movement around the league — and a lot of curiosity specifically about what the change at QB will mean for New England and Tampa Bay — but those @ @ @ @ @ @ @ too much .
The Chiefs are still the favorites to win it all again .
What is affecting our predictions some is the addition of more wild-card slots .
It ’ s a move we like , as the extra wild-card game will keep the competition among top seeds going late into the regular season and give good teams in tough divisions a chance to make a postseason run .
But if the Jets ’ quarterback gets mono again , they ’ re still probably out of luck .
Next , we coax @ @ @ @ @ @ @ virtual control room and into the host ’ s chair to talk Premier League soccer , which is also set to get going this weekend .
Although Liverpool and Manchester City are clear favorites to win the league — and Manchester City has the advantage of a deeper bench — what ’ s exciting about the EPL this season may not be the title race , but the very tight scramble for the top four spots and the chance to play in the Champions League .
Chelsea and Manchester United look to be @ @ @ @ @ @ @ very active in the transfer market , while Sara ’ s Tottenham Hotspur and Tony ’ s Arsenal are bracing for gloomier prospects .
But there ’ s a logjam of teams that could make a run for European football , and the condensed EPL schedule may make that competition ever fiercer .
We ’ re all in happy , however , that Leeds United is back in the EPL — not necessarily because of their style , but because Geoff would very much like all former stalwarts relegated out of the Premier @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Finally , in place of the Rabbit Hole , Sara and Neil sit down with author Reid Forgrave to talk about his new book .
“ Love , Zac ” explores a young man ’ s struggle with CTE acquired not from years in the pros , but from playing football from third grade through high school .
They discuss the nuances of how we should approach our football fandom in light of the science about what it does to people and how to think about the important cultural value that football @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ re looking at this week : • Can the Patriots replace their stellar defense ?
• The biggest storylines going into this NFL season .

We start with the return of the NFL. That’s right: Professional football is back this week; on Thursday, the Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs will take on the Houston Texans, who just locked down quarterback Deshaun Watson with a contract extension that nearly matched the per-year record of his Week 1 opponent, Patrick Mahomes. There’s been a lot of quarterback movement around the league — and a lot of curiosity specifically about what the change at QB will mean for New England and Tampa Bay — but those moves haven’t affected our predictions too much. The Chiefs are still the favorites to win it all again. What is affecting our predictions some is the addition of more wild-card slots. It’s a move we like, as the extra wild-card game will keep the competition among top seeds going late into the regular season and give good teams in tough divisions a chance to make a postseason run. But if the Jets’ quarterback gets mono again, they’re still probably out of luck.
Next, we coax FiveThirtyEight producer Tony Chow out of the virtual control room and into the host’s chair to talk Premier League soccer, which is also set to get going this weekend. Although Liverpool and Manchester City are clear favorites to win the league — and Manchester City has the advantage of a deeper bench — what’s exciting about the EPL this season may not be the title race, but the very tight scramble for the top four spots and the chance to play in the Champions League. Chelsea and Manchester United look to be on the rise, having both been very active in the transfer market, while Sara’s Tottenham Hotspur and Tony’s Arsenal are bracing for gloomier prospects. But there’s a logjam of teams that could make a run for European football, and the condensed EPL schedule may make that competition ever fiercer. We’re all in happy, however, that Leeds United is back in the EPL — not necessarily because of their style, but because Geoff would very much like all former stalwarts relegated out of the Premier League to find their way back in.
Finally, in place of the Rabbit Hole, Sara and Neil sit down with author Reid Forgrave to talk about his new book. “Love, Zac” explores a young man’s struggle with CTE acquired not from years in the pros, but from playing football from third grade through high school. They discuss the nuances of how we should approach our football fandom in light of the science about what it does to people and how to think about the important cultural value that football adds to American life.
What we’re looking at this week:


fivethirthyeight--2020-09-08--Politics Podcast: The 2020 Electoral Map Could Get Weird

As Republicans have improved their standing in the Midwest and Democrats have made headway in the Sun Belt , some @ @ @ @ @ are now in play .
In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast , the @ @ @ @ @ are playing out and what it means for the 2020 electoral map .
They also @ @ @ @ @ Times poll of active-duty service members is a good or bad use of polling .
@ @ @ @ @ episode by clicking the “ play ” button in the audio player above or by @ @ @ @ @ the ESPN App or your favorite podcast platform .
If you are new to podcasts @ @ @ @ @ .
The FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast is recorded Mondays and Thursdays .
Help new listeners discover @ @ @ @ @ a rating and review on iTunes .
Have a comment , question or suggestion for @ @ @ @ @ polling ” ?
Get in touch by email , on Twitter or in the comments @

As Republicans have improved their standing in the Midwest and Democrats have made headway in the Sun Belt, some states not usually considered competitive are now in play. In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the crew discusses how those trends are playing out and what it means for the 2020 electoral map. They also assess whether a recent Military Times poll of active-duty service members is a good or bad use of polling.
You can listen to the episode by clicking the “play” button in the audio player above or by downloading it in iTunes, the ESPN App or your favorite podcast platform. If you are new to podcasts, learn how to listen.
The FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast is recorded Mondays and Thursdays. Help new listeners discover the show by leaving us a rating and review on iTunes. Have a comment, question or suggestion for “good polling vs. bad polling”? Get in touch by email, on Twitter or in the comments.


fivethirthyeight--2020-09-08--The Rockets’ New Starting Lineup Is Just Scratching The Surface Of Its Potential

There are many reasons to be bullish about Houston ’ s odds to take home the Larry O ’ Brien trophy : The team possesses top-tier talent , it uses a mathematically advantageous playing style and FiveThirtyEight ’ s model currently gives the Rockets a 26 percent chance to win it all — second in the league behind the Boston Celtics .
But the most intriguing reason can be found in Houston ’ s new starting lineup , the most compelling but frustrating unit on the team : James Harden , Russell Westbrook , P.J .
Tucker , Robert Covington @ @ @ @ @ @ @ not that Houston couldn ’ t deviate from that group by plugging in Jeff Green , Danuel House Jr. , Austin Rivers or Ben McLemore , should one of them have it going on any given night .
But no team is more certain about the five players it will have on the floor in crunchtime , regardless of the opposition on the floor .
The group is dynamic , a nightmare to match up against and a monster on defense .
They ’ ve also barely played together — and sometimes , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ debut midway through the third quarter in a game against the Los Angeles Lakers on Feb. 6 , one day after Covington was acquired in a four-team trade that sent center Clint Capela to Atlanta and forced Houston to embrace a permanent small-ball aesthetic .
They closed out the back half of the fourth quarter , propelling the Rockets to victory .
Their next sighting didn ’ t come until Feb. 22 , and after that , staggered injuries sustained by Gordon and Westbrook never really allowed coach Mike D ’ Antoni to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the regular season , they appeared in just six games and were +9 in 45 regular-season minutes .
The group ’ s first start didn ’ t come until more than a week into the playoffs , on Aug. 29 , when the Rockets beat the Oklahoma City Thunder by 34 points .
Their playing time has nearly doubled in the playoffs to 14.6 minutes per game .
It might be a slight stretch to say the Rockets can ’ t go all the way unless this group coalesces on both ends , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ reach their ceiling .
All the ingredients to dominate are in place .
They have shooting , vision , grit , length , speed , experience and more than one playmaker .
Westbrook , Harden and Gordon are , in their purest form , head-down drivers who love attacking the basket , while the latter two plus Covington and Tucker can ’ t be left alone behind the arc .
And , even with Westbrook ’ s propensity to gamble more than he probably should as an off-ball defender , none are obvious @ @ @ @ @ @ @ five are +20 in 73 playoff minutes , a differential that ’ s surprising when you consider how disappointing they ’ ve been trying to put the ball in the basket .
Their offensive rating in the playoffs has been 96.9 — the second-worst among Houston ’ s 12 five-man lineups that have played at least 10 playoff minutes — and it was an only slightly better 100.0 during the regular season .
Something still isn ’ t quite right with the group .
The most obvious scapegoat is Westbrook .
He made @ @ @ @ @ @ @ regular season but is down to 16.7 percent in five playoff games .
After cutting threes out of his diet before the shutdown , Westbrook has already launched 12 in this series , a surprising uptick that might be due to a lack of confidence in his strained right quad muscle that won ’ t yet allow the same explosive force he enjoyed six months ago .
Westbrook ’ s poor shooting and inability to space the floor can grind Houston ’ s offense to a halt .
Below are a few tries @ @ @ @ @ @ @ broken the Rockets look when Harden wants to isolate against a defense that only feels like guarding three of his teammates .
Poor outside shooting carries over to any lineup — Harden ’ s offensive numbers have soared in these playoffs when Westbrook isn ’ t on the court — but this one presents a particularly unfamiliar circumstance , where Westbrook doesn ’ t have the ball as often as someone with his skill set probably should .
The constricted role is glaring , especially against opposing starters and in crunchtime , when @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the offensive glass , cut , draw fouls and , above all else , take advantage of all the space opponents provide when he ’ s left alone .
One ostensible solution is to give him the ball and let him operate with space , but the Thunder and Lakers have so far been more worried about giving up an open three than letting Westbrook go one-on-one .
There was cause for optimism for the unit overall in Sunday ’ s game , even though it ended in an 8-point loss .
According @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s shot quality in the regular season and playoffs was 51.91 heading into Game 2 , which would fall in the 70th percentile among all teams .
Their actual effective field-goal percentage , though , is 48.09 .
The 3.82-point drop is more than twice as bad as the league-worst Golden State Warriors .
In layman ’ s terms , this means Houston ’ s starting five is due to erupt .
In Game 2 , that ’ s exactly what happened .
In a single game sample size , anything can @ @ @ @ @ @ @ because they turned it over 17 times , Westbrook ( who finished -14 ) missed six threes , and the Lakers ’ Markieff Morris came out of nowhere to make more threes in the first half than in every previous playoff game combined .
But on 25 shots , Houston ’ s starting five saw its effective field-goal percentage shoot up to 62 percent , which was 9.09 points above their shot quality .
They shot 50 percent from behind the arc , a huge jump from the 27.7 percent they had been @ @ @ @ @ @ @ game .
Their offensive rating was also 123.3 points per 100 possessions — closer to where a group this potent should be .
The attention Harden draws creates advantages out of thin air for everybody else .
And when the Rockets organize themselves so that someone not named Westbrook is one pass away , they ’ re usually able to punish a defense that willingly puts itself in rotation .
And their connected , menacing defense is always good to create transition opportunities — which is where Westbrook can place his fingerprints on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ units in this postseason that have logged at least 30 minutes , and none allows fewer points per 100 possessions than Houston ’ s starting five .
Their 84.8 defensive rating is thanks to the turnovers they create and how locked in they are on a switch-happy scheme that allows just 56.7 points per 100 possessions .
( Overall , the team allows 104.8 points per 100 possessions when they switch a ball screen , which ranks in the 43rd percentile . )
But at the same time , Houston doesn ’ t @ @ @ @ @ @ @ it means Tucker has to come off Anthony Davis , on or off the ball .
They have discipline and gameplan loyalty , plus a collective awareness of who can ’ t shoot ( sorry , Lu Dort ) and who ’ s worthy of a hard closeout .
Because they communicate before they clash , even in a small sample size , their success on that end is no coincidence .
If they can blend that clear strength with a more consistent scoring attack , the Rockets can indeed win it all @ @ @ @ @ @ @ whoever they ’ re lined up against , this five-man unit creates the type of questions that are difficult to solve in a seven-game series .
Now all they have to do is turn their advantages into reality .

There are many reasons to be bullish about Houston’s odds to take home the Larry O’Brien trophy: The team possesses top-tier talent, it uses a mathematically advantageous playing style and FiveThirtyEight’s model currently gives the Rockets a 26 percent chance to win it all — second in the league behind the Boston Celtics. But the most intriguing reason can be found in Houston’s new starting lineup, the most compelling but frustrating unit on the team: James Harden, Russell Westbrook, P.J. Tucker, Robert Covington and Eric Gordon.
It’s not that Houston couldn’t deviate from that group by plugging in Jeff Green, Danuel House Jr., Austin Rivers or Ben McLemore, should one of them have it going on any given night. But no team is more certain about the five players it will have on the floor in crunchtime, regardless of the opposition on the floor. The group is dynamic, a nightmare to match up against and a monster on defense. They’ve also barely played together — and sometimes, that shows.
The group made its debut midway through the third quarter in a game against the Los Angeles Lakers on Feb. 6, one day after Covington was acquired in a four-team trade that sent center Clint Capela to Atlanta and forced Houston to embrace a permanent small-ball aesthetic. They closed out the back half of the fourth quarter, propelling the Rockets to victory. Their next sighting didn’t come until Feb. 22, and after that, staggered injuries sustained by Gordon and Westbrook never really allowed coach Mike D’Antoni to see exactly what he had. During the regular season, they appeared in just six games and were +9 in 45 regular-season minutes.
The group’s first start didn’t come until more than a week into the playoffs, on Aug. 29, when the Rockets beat the Oklahoma City Thunder by 34 points. Their playing time has nearly doubled in the playoffs to 14.6 minutes per game. It might be a slight stretch to say the Rockets can’t go all the way unless this group coalesces on both ends, but they almost certainly won’t reach their ceiling.
All the ingredients to dominate are in place. They have shooting, vision, grit, length, speed, experience and more than one playmaker. Westbrook, Harden and Gordon are, in their purest form, head-down drivers who love attacking the basket, while the latter two plus Covington and Tucker can’t be left alone behind the arc. And, even with Westbrook’s propensity to gamble more than he probably should as an off-ball defender, none are obvious weak links on that end.
These five are +20 in 73 playoff minutes, a differential that’s surprising when you consider how disappointing they’ve been trying to put the ball in the basket. Their offensive rating in the playoffs has been 96.9 — the second-worst among Houston’s 12 five-man lineups that have played at least 10 playoff minutes — and it was an only slightly better 100.0 during the regular season. Something still isn’t quite right with the group.
The most obvious scapegoat is Westbrook. He made 25.8 percent of his threes during the regular season but is down to 16.7 percent in five playoff games. After cutting threes out of his diet before the shutdown, Westbrook has already launched 12 in this series, a surprising uptick that might be due to a lack of confidence in his strained right quad muscle that won’t yet allow the same explosive force he enjoyed six months ago.
Westbrook’s poor shooting and inability to space the floor can grind Houston’s offense to a halt. Below are a few tries from the right wing that highlight how broken the Rockets look when Harden wants to isolate against a defense that only feels like guarding three of his teammates.
Poor outside shooting carries over to any lineup — Harden’s offensive numbers have soared in these playoffs when Westbrook isn’t on the court — but this one presents a particularly unfamiliar circumstance, where Westbrook doesn’t have the ball as often as someone with his skill set probably should.
The constricted role is glaring, especially against opposing starters and in crunchtime, when the Rockets essentially need Westbrook to crash the offensive glass, cut, draw fouls and, above all else, take advantage of all the space opponents provide when he’s left alone. One ostensible solution is to give him the ball and let him operate with space, but the Thunder and Lakers have so far been more worried about giving up an open three than letting Westbrook go one-on-one.
There was cause for optimism for the unit overall in Sunday’s game, even though it ended in an 8-point loss. According to Second Spectrum, the Harden/Westbrook/Tucker/Covington/Gordon lineup’s shot quality in the regular season and playoffs was 51.91 heading into Game 2, which would fall in the 70th percentile among all teams. Their actual effective field-goal percentage, though, is 48.09. The 3.82-point drop is more than twice as bad as the league-worst Golden State Warriors. In layman’s terms, this means Houston’s starting five is due to erupt. In Game 2, that’s exactly what happened.
In a single game sample size, anything can happen; the Rockets lost on Sunday because they turned it over 17 times, Westbrook (who finished -14) missed six threes, and the Lakers’ Markieff Morris came out of nowhere to make more threes in the first half than in every previous playoff game combined.
But on 25 shots, Houston’s starting five saw its effective field-goal percentage shoot up to 62 percent, which was 9.09 points above their shot quality. They shot 50 percent from behind the arc, a huge jump from the 27.7 percent they had been shooting in the playoffs prior to the game. Their offensive rating was also 123.3 points per 100 possessions — closer to where a group this potent should be. The attention Harden draws creates advantages out of thin air for everybody else. And when the Rockets organize themselves so that someone not named Westbrook is one pass away, they’re usually able to punish a defense that willingly puts itself in rotation.
And their connected, menacing defense is always good to create transition opportunities — which is where Westbrook can place his fingerprints on the game. There are 29 five-man units in this postseason that have logged at least 30 minutes, and none allows fewer points per 100 possessions than Houston’s starting five. Their 84.8 defensive rating is thanks to the turnovers they create and how locked in they are on a switch-happy scheme that allows just 56.7 points per 100 possessions. (Overall, the team allows 104.8 points per 100 possessions when they switch a ball screen, which ranks in the 43rd percentile.)
But at the same time, Houston doesn’t switch just to switch, especially when it means Tucker has to come off Anthony Davis, on or off the ball.
They have discipline and gameplan loyalty, plus a collective awareness of who can’t shoot (sorry, Lu Dort) and who’s worthy of a hard closeout. Because they communicate before they clash, even in a small sample size, their success on that end is no coincidence. If they can blend that clear strength with a more consistent scoring attack, the Rockets can indeed win it all.
By inducing uncomfortable behavior out of whoever they’re lined up against, this five-man unit creates the type of questions that are difficult to solve in a seven-game series. Now all they have to do is turn their advantages into reality.
Check out our latest NBA predictions.


fivethirthyeight--2020-09-08--Football Is Coming To Three Of The Power Five Conferences. COVID-19 Is Already There.

While the Big Ten and Pac-12 elected not to compete this fall in college football , three of the sport ’ s five major conferences and more than 70 Football Bowl Subdivision programs will , with games outside the Power Five already underway .
Many fans are thrilled .
But epidemiologists are worried about the consequences of college football amid a pandemic that has killed more than 188,000 people in the U.S. and induced chronic health complications for survivors , including the hearts of student-athletes .
While all other NCAA fall sports championships have been canceled , the $ 4 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ departments around the country — plays on .
Going into this season , the Southeastern Conference is still college football ’ s preeminent force , a machine that has led all conferences in attendance for more than two decades and last fiscal year brought in $ 721 million in revenue .
It ’ s home to many of the most rabid fan bases in the country , an especially vocal contingent of college football tribalism unafraid to announce , with frequency , that the sport means more here .
It ’ s also @ @ @ @ @ @ @ cases .
Within days of campus reopening , the University of Alabama reported enough positive cases to field five football teams .
The University of South Carolina later reported one of the highest number of college cases on record .
Auburn , Tennessee and Vanderbilt all canceled practices .
Ole Miss , which did not cancel practice , experienced an outbreak within the athletic community .
LSU quarantined at least one-quarter of its roster .
According to The New York Times tracker , three of the four college campuses with the most cases @ @ @ @ @ @ @ were in the SEC — the University of Alabama , the University of South Carolina and Auburn University .
The conference is home to seven of the 28 campuses that reported at least 500 total cases , by the Times ’ count .
More than 60 percent of SEC football rosters are populated by Black men , according to the NCAA demographic database .
These men are staring down a virus that disproportionately affects the Black community .
Not only are a majority of these athletes vulnerable and attending classes on campuses awash @ @ @ @ @ @ @ also competing for schools whose leaders don ’ t seem terribly interested in implementing sufficient safeguards .
This inability to protect the student body isn ’ t lost on the players .
“ How can y ’ all help us ?
” Ole Miss linebacker MoMo Sanogo asked in a call with conference leadership before the SEC announced its plan to go forward with games this fall .
With conference play just around the corner , the answer to Sanogo ’ s question appears to be : by bringing thousands of strangers to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Football ticketing revenue alone generates more than $ 1 billion annually for Power Five universities ; much of it will vanish in the pandemic , but not all .
Conference commissioners are leaving stadium capacity arrangements up to member schools with the hope that local , state and campus guidelines will influence those decisions .
Some programs in major conferences , like the University of Kansas of the Big 12 and Syracuse University of the ACC , will begin a fan-free start to the season out of caution .
But so far , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ taking that route .
College football cathedrals are a dime a dozen in the South .
By capacity , the SEC boasts half of the 10 largest venues in the sport .
Of the 14 member schools , 10 rank in the top 30 .
And while nearly all have announced capacity limitations of 20 to 25 percent of crowd capacity , that will still amount to thousands of people : The 10 SEC schools that have released gameday plans have all said they will let in at least 15,000 fans .
Alabama @ @ @ @ @ @ @ bring in at least 17,000 fans for home games , while Texas A & M is anticipating more than 25,000 .
Each of those schools ranks in the top 20 of The New York Times ’ s coronavirus tracker .
The public health crisis also hasn ’ t stopped dozens of teams from laughing in the face of transparency .
ESPN ’ s Paula Lavigne and Mark Schlabach recently polled every Power Five conference member about COVID-19 test results for student-athletes ; nearly half declined to disclose them .
The largest contingent hailed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the 14 member schools choosing not to reveal the number of positive results .
Almost one-third of Power Five responders wouldn ’ t so much as lay out what the COVID-19 protocols were .
Those protocols aren ’ t only a problem in the Power Five .
Players and staff at Colorado State , a Mountain West Conference member , say they had been told not to report symptoms of the virus , while the coach at Liberty praised a lack of positive tests on his team before revealing that students hadn ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Is it surprising that nearly three-fourths of Idaho ’ s football team didn ’ t feel comfortable playing this season ?
In a matter of months , the pageantry of college football ’ s sesquicentennial gave way to a challenge unprecedented in scope .
“ Best advice I ’ ve received since COVID-19 : Be patient , ” SEC Commissioner Greg Sankey wrote on Twitter .
“ … Can we play ?
I don ’ t know.
” With a vast cloud of uncertainty blanketing the sport , more than half of all @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on .
And in the SEC , packed stadiums will be the norm , as thousands of fans bear witness to a college football season unlike any other .

Football Is Coming To Three Of The Power Five Conferences. COVID-19 Is Already There.
While the Big Ten and Pac-12 elected not to compete this fall in college football, three of the sport’s five major conferences and more than 70 Football Bowl Subdivision programs will, with games outside the Power Five already underway.
Many fans are thrilled. But epidemiologists are worried about the consequences of college football amid a pandemic that has killed more than 188,000 people in the U.S. and induced chronic health complications for survivors, including the hearts of student-athletes. While all other NCAA fall sports championships have been canceled, the $4 billion-plus enterprise — and lifeblood of athletic departments around the country — plays on.
Going into this season, the Southeastern Conference is still college football’s preeminent force, a machine that has led all conferences in attendance for more than two decades and last fiscal year brought in $721 million in revenue. It’s home to many of the most rabid fan bases in the country, an especially vocal contingent of college football tribalism unafraid to announce, with frequency, that the sport means more here.
It’s also increasingly home to campuses teeming with COVID-19 cases.
Within days of campus reopening, the University of Alabama reported enough positive cases to field five football teams. The University of South Carolina later reported one of the highest number of college cases on record. Auburn, Tennessee and Vanderbilt all canceled practices. Ole Miss, which did not cancel practice, experienced an outbreak within the athletic community. LSU quarantined at least one-quarter of its roster.
According to The New York Times tracker, three of the four college campuses with the most cases in the country as of Sept. 2 were in the SEC — the University of Alabama, the University of South Carolina and Auburn University. The conference is home to seven of the 28 campuses that reported at least 500 total cases, by the Times’ count.
More than 60 percent of SEC football rosters are populated by Black men, according to the NCAA demographic database. These men are staring down a virus that disproportionately affects the Black community.
Not only are a majority of these athletes vulnerable and attending classes on campuses awash in active cases, they’re also competing for schools whose leaders don’t seem terribly interested in implementing sufficient safeguards. This inability to protect the student body isn’t lost on the players. “How can y’all help us?” Ole Miss linebacker MoMo Sanogo asked in a call with conference leadership before the SEC announced its plan to go forward with games this fall.
With conference play just around the corner, the answer to Sanogo’s question appears to be: by bringing thousands of strangers to watch him and his teammates play.
Football ticketing revenue alone generates more than $1 billion annually for Power Five universities; much of it will vanish in the pandemic, but not all. Conference commissioners are leaving stadium capacity arrangements up to member schools with the hope that local, state and campus guidelines will influence those decisions. Some programs in major conferences, like the University of Kansas of the Big 12 and Syracuse University of the ACC, will begin a fan-free start to the season out of caution. But so far, none of the 14 SEC schools is taking that route.
College football cathedrals are a dime a dozen in the South. By capacity, the SEC boasts half of the 10 largest venues in the sport. Of the 14 member schools, 10 rank in the top 30.
And while nearly all have announced capacity limitations of 20 to 25 percent of crowd capacity, that will still amount to thousands of people: The 10 SEC schools that have released gameday plans have all said they will let in at least 15,000 fans. Alabama, Auburn and Georgia are expected to bring in at least 17,000 fans for home games, while Texas A&M is anticipating more than 25,000. Each of those schools ranks in the top 20 of The New York Times’s coronavirus tracker.
The public health crisis also hasn’t stopped dozens of teams from laughing in the face of transparency. ESPN’s Paula Lavigne and Mark Schlabach recently polled every Power Five conference member about COVID-19 test results for student-athletes; nearly half declined to disclose them. The largest contingent hailed from the SEC, with 10 of the 14 member schools choosing not to reveal the number of positive results. Almost one-third of Power Five responders wouldn’t so much as lay out what the COVID-19 protocols were.
Those protocols aren’t only a problem in the Power Five. Players and staff at Colorado State, a Mountain West Conference member, say they had been told not to report symptoms of the virus, while the coach at Liberty praised a lack of positive tests on his team before revealing that students hadn’t been tested for two weeks. Is it surprising that nearly three-fourths of Idaho’s football team didn’t feel comfortable playing this season?
In a matter of months, the pageantry of college football’s sesquicentennial gave way to a challenge unprecedented in scope. “Best advice I’ve received since COVID-19: Be patient,” SEC Commissioner Greg Sankey wrote on Twitter. “… Can we play? I don’t know.” With a vast cloud of uncertainty blanketing the sport, more than half of all FBS programs are still planning to forge on. And in the SEC, packed stadiums will be the norm, as thousands of fans bear witness to a college football season unlike any other.


fivethirthyeight--2020-09-09--The Latest On Republican Efforts To Make It Harder To Vote

About a month ago , we laid out five ways that Republicans are making it harder to vote and more generally undermining the electoral process in 2020 .
We focused on Republicans for two reasons .
First , making it harder to vote is a more controversial and anti-democratic goal than making it easier to vote , as Democrats are aiming to do .
And second , President Trump is playing a central role in these voting wars .
Trump has publicly said that he is opposed to efforts in many states to make absentee voting and voting by mail @ @ @ @ @ @ @ thing ) available to virtually anyone who wants to vote that way .
He has also suggested that higher overall voter turnout would make it harder for Republicans to win elections .
Over the last month , with the election approaching , Republican officials — from county-level election administrators to the president himself — have in some ways escalated their use of these tactics .
So here ’ s an update on those efforts to complicate the voting process and oppose moves that would make it easier .
These five categories , which @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are generally ordered from least alarming to most alarming .
( There is no formal system tracking every lawsuit concerning voting and the electoral process in all 50 states , so this article is based on our informal tracking , which means we might have missed a key development in a state or two . )
Here ’ s what ’ s happening : 1 .
Opposing changes to make it easier to vote amid COVID-19 • Opposing or limiting the use of ballot drop boxes .
Recent U.S .
Postal Service changes @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a GOP megadonor , have slowed down mail delivery and likely increased the potential that some mail-in ballots will get to elections offices too late to be counted .
( In most states , mail-in ballots must be received by Election Day . )
In response , to make sure that people don ’ t have to vote in person and to ensure that their ballots are received in time , Democrats have been pushing states and localities to expand the number of secure boxes where people can drop off their ballots so @ @ @ @ @ @ @ election officials .
Republicans , though , are also opposing these drop boxes .
In Ohio , the Republican secretary of state is blocking any county from having more than one ballot drop-off location — even though it would obviously make sense for counties with larger populations to have more than one .
In Iowa , the Republican secretary of state is allowing such boxes only at government-owned buildings ( as opposed to , say , outside grocery stores ) .
Missouri , another GOP-dominated state , is barring the use of any @ @ @ @ @ @ @ make it easier to vote by mail .
The GOP-controlled board of commissioners in Gwinnett County , Georgia ( that ’ s suburban Atlanta ) , rejected a proposal to have applications for absentee ballots sent to all registered voters in the county .
In Arizona , the Trump campaign is opposing a push to count any ballot that is postmarked by Election Day ( as opposed to received by Election Day ) .
• Limiting the use of NBA arenas as voting centers .
After their brief strike in the days after @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , Wisconsin , NBA players successfully pushed the league to authorize using its arenas as voting centers .
But despite owners offering the space to local governments , election officials in Miami ( Florida ) and Memphis ( Tennessee ) have opted against using those arenas .
( Miami has a Republican mayor ; the elections procedures in Shelby County , which includes Memphis , are set by a board whose members are appointed by the state ’ s GOP-controlled legislature . )
• Opposing early processing of absentee ballots .
In Michigan @ @ @ @ @ @ @ t pushing forward proposed legislation to allow elections officials to start processing mail-in ballots ( basically removing the outer envelope that they are contained in and verifying voters ’ signatures ) before Election Day .
Even under this proposed legislation , election officials would not start reading the ballots and counting votes until Nov 3 .
But starting the process of opening up the ballots before Election Day would help officials speed up the count .
2 .
Seeking to invalidate laws that make it easier to vote amid COVID-19 This is different @ @ @ @ @ @ @ concerning ) because in these instances Republicans are seeking to overturn decisions already made to ease the voting process .
• Pushing to get existing drop boxes removed .
In Pennsylvania , Republicans are suing to prevent the use of drop boxes , as well as advancing legislation that would limit drop boxes to a few types of official sites , which would mean some existing boxes could no longer be used .
• Stopping local officials from making absentee voting easier .
Republicans in Texas Texas filed and won a lawsuit to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the Houston area ) from sending absentee ballot applications to all registered voters in the county .
In Iowa , the Trump campaign filed and won a lawsuit stopping officials in one of the state ’ s more urban and Democratic-leaning areas from sending voters absentee ballot applications that already had some information ( like the voter ’ s name and birthday ) already filled in .
In Montana , the Trump campaign and GOP officials have filed a lawsuit to block a policy implemented by the state ’ s governor , who @ @ @ @ @ @ @ all counties to set up comprehensive vote-by-mail programs .
3 .
Advancing new practices and provisions that make it harder to vote • Complicating the voting process for felons in Florida .
Not much has changed in the last month in this category .
But Republican officials in Florida are continuing litigation to keep in place a law they adopted in 2019 that requires convicted felons to pay all fees associated with their sentence before their voting rights are restored .
The law , in effect , limits a 2018 ballot initiative adopted @ @ @ @ @ @ @ voting rights .
In continuing this litigation , Florida Republicans are likely to be successful in basically running out of the legal clock and keeping the 2018 provision from truly going into effect in the 2020 election cycle .
• Misleading statements about voter fraud .
Trump and Attorney General William Barr continue to argue that widespread mail-in voting will lead to a lot of voter fraud , often making outlandish and inaccurate claims to support their position .
There is no evidence that voting by mail leads to increased fraud , and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ where most people have voted by mail for years , there has been no evidence of widespread malfeasance .
5 .
Fundamental changes to the electoral process • Encouraging people to vote twice .
Trump has recently been encouraging people who vote by mail to also go to vote at the polls on Election Day .
If the election systems are working properly , he argues , they won ’ t be allowed to vote in person .
It is very unlikely that anyone ’ s vote will be counted twice , but @ @ @ @ @ @ @ mail to also show up in person will complicate election officials ’ jobs .
If some people actually do vote twice , that would , of course , undermine the entire voting process — and break the law .
• Downplaying potential Russian interference .
Published reports suggest that Russian operatives are using measures similar to those they employed in 2016 to both boost Trump and increase political division in America .
But the Trump administration has opted against clearly saying that Russia is engaged in such conduct or forthrightly condemning it .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ that both Russia and China are trying to interfere , with China favoring Democratic nominee Joe Biden and Russia favoring Trump .
But in reality , while the Chinese do favor Biden , according to published reports , there is no evidence that they are pursuing active measures to help him win , unlike Russia .
In addition , the Trump administration — apparently in retaliation for congressional Democrats publicly indicating that Russia is trying to tilt the election toward Trump — has opted to limit briefings to Congress on election security .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ now only submit written comments to Congress , instead of meeting in-person with leaders from both parties on the key intelligence committees .
There are plenty of Republican officials , even in some of the states listed above , taking steps to make it easier to vote .
Texas , for example , increased the number of days in which early voting is available .
So it ’ s not that all Republicans are trying to complicate the voting process .
Rather , most of the officials trying to complicate the voting process @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ t the only people filing a lot of lawsuits and pushing a lot of changes to the voting system — it ’ s just that Democrats ’ extensive legal efforts are generally pushing to make it easier to vote .
So the most surprising aspect of the voting process is what we have laid out here : One party seems to be systemically making it harder to vote and taking other steps that undermine the integrity of the electoral process .
The big question is whether these tactics will work , either @ @ @ @ @ @ @ or counted , or by throwing the election results ( whatever they end up being ) into doubt .

About a month ago, we laid out five ways that Republicans are making it harder to vote and more generally undermining the electoral process in 2020. We focused on Republicans for two reasons. First, making it harder to vote is a more controversial and anti-democratic goal than making it easier to vote, as Democrats are aiming to do. And second, President Trump is playing a central role in these voting wars. Trump has publicly said that he is opposed to efforts in many states to make absentee voting and voting by mail (the two are functionally the same thing) available to virtually anyone who wants to vote that way. He has also suggested that higher overall voter turnout would make it harder for Republicans to win elections.
Over the last month, with the election approaching, Republican officials — from county-level election administrators to the president himself — have in some ways escalated their use of these tactics. So here’s an update on those efforts to complicate the voting process and oppose moves that would make it easier. These five categories, which we used in the last article, are generally ordered from least alarming to most alarming. (There is no formal system tracking every lawsuit concerning voting and the electoral process in all 50 states, so this article is based on our informal tracking, which means we might have missed a key development in a state or two.) Here’s what’s happening:
1. Opposing changes to make it easier to vote amid COVID-19
2. Seeking to invalidate laws that make it easier to vote amid COVID-19
This is different from the prior category (and more concerning) because in these instances Republicans are seeking to overturn decisions already made to ease the voting process.
3. Advancing new practices and provisions that make it harder to vote
Complicating the voting process for felons in Florida. Not much has changed in the last month in this category. But Republican officials in Florida are continuing litigation to keep in place a law they adopted in 2019 that requires convicted felons to pay all fees associated with their sentence before their voting rights are restored. The law, in effect, limits a 2018 ballot initiative adopted by Florida voters intended to restore felon voting rights. In continuing this litigation, Florida Republicans are likely to be successful in basically running out of the legal clock and keeping the 2018 provision from truly going into effect in the 2020 election cycle.
4. Anti-democratic rhetoric
Misleading statements about voter fraud. Trump and Attorney General William Barr continue to argue that widespread mail-in voting will lead to a lot of voter fraud, often making outlandish and inaccurate claims to support their position. There is no evidence that voting by mail leads to increased fraud, and in states like Washington and Oregon, where most people have voted by mail for years, there has been no evidence of widespread malfeasance.
5. Fundamental changes to the electoral process
There are plenty of Republican officials, even in some of the states listed above, taking steps to make it easier to vote. Texas, for example, increased the number of days in which early voting is available. So it’s not that all Republicans are trying to complicate the voting process. Rather, most of the officials trying to complicate the voting process are Republicans. Also, Republicans aren’t the only people filing a lot of lawsuits and pushing a lot of changes to the voting system — it’s just that Democrats’ extensive legal efforts are generally pushing to make it easier to vote.
So the most surprising aspect of the voting process is what we have laid out here: One party seems to be systemically making it harder to vote and taking other steps that undermine the integrity of the electoral process. The big question is whether these tactics will work, either by keeping anti-Trump ballots from being cast or counted, or by throwing the election results (whatever they end up being) into doubt.


fivethirthyeight--2020-09-09--Election Update: Polls Are Good For Biden Pretty Much Everywhere — Except Florida

Welcome to FiveThirtyEight ’ s Election Update for Wednesday , Sept. 9 .
And at this point , it ’ s no longer too early to look at the polls .
We ’ re moving away from the convention period of the race and into the thick of the election .
However , the overall race hasn ’ t changed all that much .
Joe Biden has a 74 in 100 chance of winning compared to Trump who has a 26 in 100 shot , according to our forecast , and as you can see in the chart below , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ But even though the topline numbers haven ’ t changed all that much , that doesn ’ t mean there hasn ’ t been some movement at the state level .
It ’ s not super easy to find patterns where Biden is gaining or losing ground — still a lot of noise at this point — but it does seem as if , on the whole , there ’ s been mostly good news for Biden .
Except for Florida , which , as you can see in the chart below , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the most .
And at this point , though , it ’ s really only Florida that ’ s moved all that much .
In most other states which have been polled about as much as Florida — there ’ ve been 12 polls there since the start of the Democratic convention — they ’ ve seen far less of a change or barely any movement at all .
Four other states have at least 10 polls in the same timeframe — Pennsylvania ( 17 polls ) , Wisconsin ( 12 ) , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ( 10 ) — yet their numbers have budged only a little .
What ’ s more , it ’ s mostly good news for Biden at this point .
It ’ s true that Biden is polling better in a state like Wisconsin than in his home state of Pennsylvania , which has caused some confusion given the states ’ demographic similarities , but it ’ s important that we not read too much into it at this point .
Case in point , despite losing ground in Pennsylvania , Biden got @ @ @ @ @ @ @ News/Marist College , which found him with a 9-point lead among likely voters , whereas a poll from Marquette Law School poll of Wisconsin was more middling , putting Biden ahead by just 4 points , and actually bring down his average just slightly there .
It ’ s a little surprising that these states haven ’ t necessarily moved more in tandem as the results in states with similar demographics are often correlated .
But it ’ s an important reminder that sometimes individual polls look like they ’ re pointing in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , many of the so-called movements even out in the end , and at this point , it ’ s still mostly good news for Biden aside from Florida .
As for what ’ s happening in Florida , we ’ re still a little unsure of what to make of it , as we ’ d expect the numbers in fellow Sun Belt states Arizona and Texas to have moved in similar ways — but they haven ’ t .
Some of this might have to do with Florida ’ s Hispanic @ @ @ @ @ @ @ comprise more than 80 percent of the Hispanic population in Arizona and Texas , Cuban Americans form a plurality — 29 percent — of Florida Hispanics , and on the whole they are much more conservative .
Recent polling suggests this could be a critical difference , too .
For example , Democratic pollster GQR ’ s new Florida survey found Biden ahead 51 percent to 46 percent overall , but Trump led by 18 points among Cuban Americans while trailing by 17 points among non-Cuban Hispanics .
And a Miami Herald/Bendixen & @ @ @ @ @ @ @ home to two-thirds of the Florida ’ s Cuban population , found them breaking for Trump 68 percent to 30 percent .
It ’ s possible that in the wake of a GOP convention that painted Democrats as socialists and even featured a Cuban American speaker , Cuban Americans responded by becoming more supportive of the president .
It also helps that Florida has been trending slightly to the right in presidential elections for a while now .
But as with most questions involving polls , we need more to get a better @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , lasting change .
We ’ re still in Trump ’ s post-convention bounce period , too , so some of Trump ’ s gains could wear off in Florida and elsewhere in the coming weeks .
Moreover , the lack of movement in FiveThirtyEight ’ s forecast is one reason to not make too much hay of the change in Florida — at least , not yet .

Welcome to FiveThirtyEight’s Election Update for Wednesday, Sept. 9. And at this point, it’s no longer too early to look at the polls. We’re moving away from the convention period of the race and into the thick of the election. However, the overall race hasn’t changed all that much. Joe Biden has a 74 in 100 chance of winning compared to Trump who has a 26 in 100 shot, according to our forecast, and as you can see in the chart below, those odds have been pretty consistent.
But even though the topline numbers haven’t changed all that much, that doesn’t mean there hasn’t been some movement at the state level. It’s not super easy to find patterns where Biden is gaining or losing ground — still a lot of noise at this point — but it does seem as if, on the whole, there’s been mostly good news for Biden. Except for Florida, which, as you can see in the chart below, is where Trump has closed the gap the most.
Polling shifts in battleground states are pretty noisy Change in Joe Biden’s margin vs. Donald Trump’s margin in battleground states, according to FiveThirtyEight polling averages from Aug. 17 to Sept. 9, as of 2:30 p.m. on Sept. 9 Biden margin vs. Trump State Aug. 17 Sept. 9 Change Florida +5.3 +2.8 -2.6 Colorado +13.4 +11.4 -2.0 Ohio +0.5 -0.9 -1.4 Pennsylvania +6.4 +5.0 -1.4 New Hampshire +9.3 +8.2 -1.1 Georgia -0.9 -1.7 -0.8 Nevada +6.8 +6.4 -0.4 Michigan +7.6 +7.4 -0.2 Virginia +10.8 +10.8 -0.1 Wisconsin +6.8 +7.0 +0.1 North Carolina +1.3 +1.7 +0.4 Minnesota +5.6 +6.1 +0.5 Texas -2.0 -0.9 +1.1 Arizona +3.6 +5.1 +1.5 Aug. 17 was the first day of the Democratic National Convention. Each state included has at least a 1 percent chance of being the “tipping point” state in 2020. Source: POLLS
And at this point, though, it’s really only Florida that’s moved all that much. In most other states which have been polled about as much as Florida — there’ve been 12 polls there since the start of the Democratic convention — they’ve seen far less of a change or barely any movement at all. Four other states have at least 10 polls in the same timeframe — Pennsylvania (17 polls), Wisconsin (12), Michigan (10) and North Carolina (10) — yet their numbers have budged only a little. What’s more, it’s mostly good news for Biden at this point.
It’s true that Biden is polling better in a state like Wisconsin than in his home state of Pennsylvania, which has caused some confusion given the states’ demographic similarities, but it’s important that we not read too much into it at this point.
Case in point, despite losing ground in Pennsylvania, Biden got a great poll there today from NBC News/Marist College, which found him with a 9-point lead among likely voters, whereas a poll from Marquette Law School poll of Wisconsin was more middling, putting Biden ahead by just 4 points, and actually bring down his average just slightly there.
It’s a little surprising that these states haven’t necessarily moved more in tandem as the results in states with similar demographics are often correlated. But it’s an important reminder that sometimes individual polls look like they’re pointing in opposite directions, but with enough data, many of the so-called movements even out in the end, and at this point, it’s still mostly good news for Biden aside from Florida.
As for what’s happening in Florida, we’re still a little unsure of what to make of it, as we’d expect the numbers in fellow Sun Belt states Arizona and Texas to have moved in similar ways — but they haven’t. Some of this might have to do with Florida’s Hispanic population, however. Whereas Mexican Americans comprise more than 80 percent of the Hispanic population in Arizona and Texas, Cuban Americans form a plurality — 29 percent — of Florida Hispanics, and on the whole they are much more conservative.
Recent polling suggests this could be a critical difference, too. For example, Democratic pollster GQR’s new Florida survey found Biden ahead 51 percent to 46 percent overall, but Trump led by 18 points among Cuban Americans while trailing by 17 points among non-Cuban Hispanics. And a Miami Herald/Bendixen & Amandi survey of just Miami-Dade County, home to two-thirds of the Florida’s Cuban population, found them breaking for Trump 68 percent to 30 percent. It’s possible that in the wake of a GOP convention that painted Democrats as socialists and even featured a Cuban American speaker, Cuban Americans responded by becoming more supportive of the president. It also helps that Florida has been trending slightly to the right in presidential elections for a while now.
But as with most questions involving polls, we need more to get a better read on just how much is real, lasting change. We’re still in Trump’s post-convention bounce period, too, so some of Trump’s gains could wear off in Florida and elsewhere in the coming weeks. Moreover, the lack of movement in FiveThirtyEight’s forecast is one reason to not make too much hay of the change in Florida — at least, not yet.


fivethirthyeight--2020-09-09--What To Watch For In An Abnormally Normal 2020 NFL Season

Ready or not , the NFL will kick off its 2020 schedule Thursday with the defending champion Kansas City Chiefs hosting the Houston Texans .
It comes against a backdrop of pandemic and protest that will no doubt affect the season beyond the league simply emptying the stands and conceding a few words of support .
We admittedly don ’ t know what 2020 will hold for the NFL as it confronts its many off-field challenges — but we do have some ideas about how its teams will perform on the field .
We ’ ve reloaded our NFL prediction @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of Thursday ’ s game and simulated the schedule 100,000 times to generate projected records and playoff odds for each team .
Here ’ s how we think the season will look if it happens remotely as planned : The Patriots are favorites to win the AFC East for the 12th consecutive season , but it will not be an easy journey .
Replacing Tom Brady with Cam Newton is one thing ; the Pats ’ new QB actually looks better according to our ratings anyway .
But can New England ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and historic levels of personnel turnover ?
If not , the Bills are right behind them .
Last year , Buffalo rode a strong defense ( fifth in expected points added per game ) and special teams ( third ) to its first double-digit win season since 1999 .
This time , they ’ re expecting more from QB Josh Allen with new WR Stefon Diggs to target .
The Jets , who went 7-6 in 2019 with Sam Darnold under center , and Dolphins , who have the highest-rated Elo QB of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ further back in terms of division odds — but we give each at least a 10 percent chance of ending New England ’ s streak .
In a year like 2020 , stranger things could happen .
After seeing a unanimous MVP season end with his Ravens getting mega-upset in the playoffs , Lamar Jackson — our No .
1 QB — has something to prove in 2020 .
He also has an upgraded defensive supporting cast , which added a few pieces to help stop the Derrick Henrys of the world from @ @ @ @ @ @ @ it ’ s enough to make Baltimore our second-most-likely champ going into the year .
But the Steelers could offer more resistance with a healthy Ben Roethlisberger back from injury , to go with what was one of the best defenses ( third in EPA ) of 2019 .
Between Baltimore and Pittsburgh , the AFC North has two of the top five teams in our Super Bowl odds .
That could make it tough for the Browns , even with an additional playoff slot in the AFC — although Cleveland ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ did last year , despite the relative reduction in hype .
The Bengals are just looking for signs of improvement after an active offseason that saw them draft Joe Burrow first overall and spend a bunch of money in free agency .
Can the Titans capture the lightning of last year ’ s playoff run in a bottle again ?
That ’ s the big question in the AFC South , where we give Tennessee a relatively slim edge in division odds over the Philip Rivers-led Colts and Deshaun Watson ’ s Texans @ @ @ @ @ @ @ all-around team last year , and they ’ ll try to replicate that in 2020 .
Meanwhile , Indy is hoping Rivers can jump-start a passing offense that slipped from seventh to 20th in EPA per game after Andrew Luck retired .
( For what it ’ s worth , our QB ratings think Rivers is better than incumbent Jacoby Brissett , but at age 38 , he ’ s no Luck ) .
And for its part , Houston is counting on the mega-talented — and now very rich — Watson to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ baffling trades .
It probably says a lot that a team with the league ’ s No .
6-rated QB is somehow only projected to go 8-8 and finish third in a winnable division .
Bringing up the rear , the Jaguars are clearly rebuilding after purging pretty much everyone associated with their 2017 AFC title game run over the past couple of years .
Was the Chiefs ’ triumph in Super Bowl LIV the start of a dynasty ?
Maybe .
We give them the best title odds of any team for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ they ’ re much more likely to not win .
( That ’ s just the NFL for you , particularly with the expanded playoff field . )
Still , K.C .
should be heavy favorites in the AFC West — and in the playoffs , as long as it has Patrick Mahomes , it ’ s never out of any game .
The rest of the division is full of unknowns .
The Broncos and Chargers have low-rated starting QBs but talented supporting casts , so if Drew Lock or Tyrod Taylor @ @ @ @ @ @ @ exceed expectations , they could be better than we project .
The relocated Raiders have the opposite problem : a productive QB in Derek Carr but a revamped defense that needs to prove it has improved significantly from last year ’ s 31st-place EPA finish .
The Cowboys and Eagles are basically NFC East co-favorites heading into 2020 , with a combined 85 percent chance of winning the division .
If that sounds familiar … well , that ’ s basically how the division played out last year , too .
We give @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to the higher-rated QB ( Dak Prescott and co. were fourth in 2019 passing EPA ; Carson Wentz ’ s crew was 15th ) and a slightly better ensemble of talent on paper .
But the Eagles showed last season that they can outlast the Cowboys down the stretch of a tight race .
Don ’ t be surprised if it comes down to the wire again .
But do be surprised if the Giants or Washington figure in as anything but Week 17 spoilers .
Both teams have young QBs and neither @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that is — obviously Washington ’ s was a disaster in most other regards ) , but our ratings think there ’ s still a pretty big chasm between the top two and bottom two teams in this division .
With three teams at 25 percent or better probability to win the division , the NFC North should once again be an intriguing slugfest .
The Packers are favorites by a razor-thin margin after coming within a game of the Super Bowl last year , though they did little to improve around Aaron @ @ @ @ @ @ @ seasons left in the tank .
In fact , they alienated Rodgers by trading up to draft another quarterback in the first round instead of bringing on receiving help for him .
Statistically , Green Bay has a lot of signs pointing to experience a decline , which explains their 9-7 projected record , but they still rank first here for now .
The Vikings are close behind , though they were also diminished some by an offseason spent clearing cap space and acquiring draft picks — hence , the Diggs trade — @ @ @ @ @ @ @ as a result .
The Bears suffered their typical playoff hangover after 2018 , but they ’ re still in the division race on the strength of their defense ( seventh in EPA in 2019 ) , a favorable schedule and the vague promise of improved QB play — whether from embattled starter-for-now Mitchell Trubisky , who defended his job in camp , or newcomer Nick Foles .
Finally , the Lions are looking for a bounceback with Matthew Stafford — who was secretly great in 2019 before being lost to injury for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ but an offseason of upheaval has them tracking for another 7-9 campaign in our projections .
The NFC South got a big makeover with the addition of two new starting QBs this offseason , though the Saints are our favorites to win a fourth straight division title .
Putting aside Drew Brees ’ s advanced age — and the chemistry fallout from his ill-advised remarks in June — he still ranks as the second-best QB in the league and leads one of the NFL ’ s best groups of offensive weapons .
We @ @ @ @ @ @ @ win the division ( 51 percent probability ) than not .
It ’ s interesting to compare the Buccaneers with the Saints , though , because Brady is also very , very old yet also has a talented supporting cast .
We project Tampa to go 9-7 with a 4 percent shot at the Super Bowl , although nobody really knows what to expect until the Bucs take the field .
The Falcons surged to the finish last year with six wins in their final eight games , and Matt Ryan is a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ as usual , it ’ s unclear if their shaky defense ( 26th in EPA last year ) has improved enough to truly contend again .
And the Panthers are projected for last place after moving on from the once-stellar Newton Era .
New QB Teddy Bridgewater is not bad at all , and RB Christian McCaffrey is a stat machine , but they still lack too much talent in too many places .
The defending NFC champion San Francisco 49ers again lead the way in our NFC West forecast , with a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Though our model thinks surprisingly little of Jimmy Garoppolo under center , the Niners have built a very good team around him ; they did their best this offseason to avoid the curse of Super Bowl losers ( which is probably just another name for regression toward the mean ) .
But the Seahawks and Rams both have more than a 20 percent shot at the division as well .
( And both have starting QBs rated higher than Jimmy G. ) Seattle ’ s Russell Wilson is a perennial MVP candidate @ @ @ @ @ @ @ due for a decline after putting up a record wildly out of line with their point differential in 2019 .
Los Angeles has all-world D-lineman Aaron Donald leading what was a top-10 EPA defense last year , which will help the Rams factor into this division battle despite the hell they ’ ve found themselves in financially .
And the Cardinals should just be flat-out fun with an improving Kyler Murray — who ranked 15th in Total QBR last year at age 22 — throwing to super-productive WR DeAndre Hopkins , even if @ @ @ @ @ @ @ chance to win this stacked division .

Ready or not, the NFL will kick off its 2020 schedule Thursday with the defending champion Kansas City Chiefs hosting the Houston Texans. It comes against a backdrop of pandemic and protest that will no doubt affect the season beyond the league simply emptying the stands and conceding a few words of support. We admittedly don’t know what 2020 will hold for the NFL as it confronts its many off-field challenges — but we do have some ideas about how its teams will perform on the field. We’ve reloaded our NFL prediction model with the latest roster moves ahead of Thursday’s game and simulated the schedule 100,000 times to generate projected records and playoff odds for each team.
Here’s how we think the season will look if it happens remotely as planned:
How we’re predicting the AFC East race Chance To … Team Starting QB QB Rank* Elo Rating Proj. Record Make Playoffs Win Division Win Super Bowl Patriots Cam Newton 20 1552 9-7 57% 39% 4% Bills Josh Allen 22 1533 8-8 52 34 3 Jets Sam Darnold 26 1456 7-9 27 15 <1 Dolphins Ryan Fitzpatrick 11 1435 6-10 24 12 <1 *Ranking among all opening day starters, according to our Elo QB value ratings. Simulations as of Sept. 8, 2020. Source: ESPN
The Patriots are favorites to win the AFC East for the 12th consecutive season, but it will not be an easy journey. Replacing Tom Brady with Cam Newton is one thing; the Pats’ new QB actually looks better according to our ratings anyway. But can New England’s defense survive both the pull of regression and historic levels of personnel turnover? If not, the Bills are right behind them. Last year, Buffalo rode a strong defense (fifth in expected points added per game) and special teams (third) to its first double-digit win season since 1999. This time, they’re expecting more from QB Josh Allen with new WR Stefon Diggs to target. The Jets, who went 7-6 in 2019 with Sam Darnold under center, and Dolphins, who have the highest-rated Elo QB of the division in Ryan Fitzpatrick, are further back in terms of division odds — but we give each at least a 10 percent chance of ending New England’s streak. In a year like 2020, stranger things could happen.
How we’re predicting the AFC North race Chance To … Team Starting QB QB Rank* Elo Rating Proj. Record Make Playoffs Win Division Win Super Bowl Ravens Lamar Jackson 1 1647 11-5 82% 55% 12% Steelers B. Roethlisberger 5 1573 10-6 65 30 5 Browns Baker Mayfield 27 1496 8-8 41 13 1 Bengals Joe Burrow 30 1390 5-11 12 3 <1 *Ranking among all opening day starters, according to our Elo QB value ratings. Simulations as of Sept. 8, 2020. Source: ESPN
After seeing a unanimous MVP season end with his Ravens getting mega-upset in the playoffs, Lamar Jackson — our No. 1 QB — has something to prove in 2020. He also has an upgraded defensive supporting cast, which added a few pieces to help stop the Derrick Henrys of the world from running all over them. We think it’s enough to make Baltimore our second-most-likely champ going into the year. But the Steelers could offer more resistance with a healthy Ben Roethlisberger back from injury, to go with what was one of the best defenses (third in EPA) of 2019. Between Baltimore and Pittsburgh, the AFC North has two of the top five teams in our Super Bowl odds. That could make it tough for the Browns, even with an additional playoff slot in the AFC — although Cleveland’s talent looks better on paper than it did last year, despite the relative reduction in hype. The Bengals are just looking for signs of improvement after an active offseason that saw them draft Joe Burrow first overall and spend a bunch of money in free agency.
How we’re predicting the AFC South race Chance To … Team Starting QB QB Rank* Elo Rating Proj. Record Make Playoffs Win Division Win Super Bowl Titans Ryan Tannehill 13 1549 9-7 60% 40% 4% Colts Philip Rivers 18 1525 9-7 52 33 3 Texans Deshaun Watson 6 1501 8-8 38 21 2 Jaguars Gardner Minshew 28 1383 5-11 13 6 <1 *Ranking among all opening day starters, according to our Elo QB value ratings. Simulations as of Sept. 8, 2020. Source: ESPN
Can the Titans capture the lightning of last year’s playoff run in a bottle again? That’s the big question in the AFC South, where we give Tennessee a relatively slim edge in division odds over the Philip Rivers-led Colts and Deshaun Watson’s Texans. The Titans were the more complete all-around team last year, and they’ll try to replicate that in 2020. Meanwhile, Indy is hoping Rivers can jump-start a passing offense that slipped from seventh to 20th in EPA per game after Andrew Luck retired. (For what it’s worth, our QB ratings think Rivers is better than incumbent Jacoby Brissett, but at age 38, he’s no Luck). And for its part, Houston is counting on the mega-talented — and now very rich — Watson to overcome Bill O’Brien’s baffling trades. It probably says a lot that a team with the league’s No. 6-rated QB is somehow only projected to go 8-8 and finish third in a winnable division. Bringing up the rear, the Jaguars are clearly rebuilding after purging pretty much everyone associated with their 2017 AFC title game run over the past couple of years.
How we’re predicting the AFC West race Chance To … Team Starting QB QB Rank* Elo Rating Proj. Record Make Playoffs Win Division Win Super Bowl Chiefs P. Mahomes 3 1658 11-5 86% 69% 14% Broncos Drew Lock 29 1485 7-9 32 12 1 Chargers Tyrod Taylor 31 1462 7-9 31 10 <1 Raiders Derek Carr 9 1466 7-9 28 9 <1 *Ranking among all opening day starters, according to our Elo QB value ratings. Simulations as of Sept. 8, 2020. Source: ESPN
Was the Chiefs’ triumph in Super Bowl LIV the start of a dynasty? Maybe. We give them the best title odds of any team for 2020 — though at 14 percent, they’re much more likely to not win. (That’s just the NFL for you, particularly with the expanded playoff field.) Still, K.C. should be heavy favorites in the AFC West — and in the playoffs, as long as it has Patrick Mahomes, it’s never out of any game. The rest of the division is full of unknowns. The Broncos and Chargers have low-rated starting QBs but talented supporting casts, so if Drew Lock or Tyrod Taylor (or rookie Justin Herbert?) exceed expectations, they could be better than we project. The relocated Raiders have the opposite problem: a productive QB in Derek Carr but a revamped defense that needs to prove it has improved significantly from last year’s 31st-place EPA finish.
How we’re predicting the NFC East race Chance To … Team Starting QB QB Rank* Elo Rating Proj. Record Make Playoffs Win Division Win Super Bowl Cowboys Dak Prescott 4 1561 9-7 63% 46% 4% Eagles Carson Wentz 15 1548 9-7 57 39 4 Giants Daniel Jones 21 1419 6-10 17 9 <1 Washington D. Haskins 32 1372 5-11 11 6 <1 *Ranking among all opening day starters, according to our Elo QB value ratings. Simulations as of Sept. 8, 2020. Source: ESPN
The Cowboys and Eagles are basically NFC East co-favorites heading into 2020, with a combined 85 percent chance of winning the division. If that sounds familiar … well, that’s basically how the division played out last year, too. We give marginally higher odds to Dallas, thanks to the higher-rated QB (Dak Prescott and co. were fourth in 2019 passing EPA; Carson Wentz’s crew was 15th) and a slightly better ensemble of talent on paper. But the Eagles showed last season that they can outlast the Cowboys down the stretch of a tight race. Don’t be surprised if it comes down to the wire again. But do be surprised if the Giants or Washington figure in as anything but Week 17 spoilers. Both teams have young QBs and neither had a bad offseason (personnel-wise, that is — obviously Washington’s was a disaster in most other regards), but our ratings think there’s still a pretty big chasm between the top two and bottom two teams in this division.
How we’re predicting the NFC North race Chance To … Team Starting QB QB Rank* Elo Rating Proj. Record Make Playoffs Win Division Win Super Bowl Packers Aaron Rodgers 12 1556 9-7 54% 32% 4% Vikings Kirk Cousins 16 1544 9-7 50 29 3 Bears Mitchell Trubisky 24 1526 8-8 48 27 3 Lions Matthew Stafford 7 1453 7-9 25 12 <1 *Ranking among all opening day starters, according to our Elo QB value ratings. Simulations as of Sept. 8, 2020. Source: ESPN
With three teams at 25 percent or better probability to win the division, the NFC North should once again be an intriguing slugfest. The Packers are favorites by a razor-thin margin after coming within a game of the Super Bowl last year, though they did little to improve around Aaron Rodgers while the 36-year-old still has good seasons left in the tank. In fact, they alienated Rodgers by trading up to draft another quarterback in the first round instead of bringing on receiving help for him. Statistically, Green Bay has a lot of signs pointing to experience a decline, which explains their 9-7 projected record, but they still rank first here for now. The Vikings are close behind, though they were also diminished some by an offseason spent clearing cap space and acquiring draft picks — hence, the Diggs trade — and they look less imposing on paper as a result. The Bears suffered their typical playoff hangover after 2018, but they’re still in the division race on the strength of their defense (seventh in EPA in 2019), a favorable schedule and the vague promise of improved QB play — whether from embattled starter-for-now Mitchell Trubisky, who defended his job in camp, or newcomer Nick Foles. Finally, the Lions are looking for a bounceback with Matthew Stafford — who was secretly great in 2019 before being lost to injury for the second half of the season — but an offseason of upheaval has them tracking for another 7-9 campaign in our projections.
How we’re predicting the NFC South race Chance To … Team Starting QB QB Rank* Elo Rating Proj. Record Make Playoffs Win Division Win Super Bowl Saints Drew Brees 2 1614 10-6 72% 51% 9% Buccaneers Tom Brady 23 1540 9-7 50 26 4 Falcons Matt Ryan 10 1499 7-9 34 16 1 Panthers T.Bridgewater 19 1428 6-10 19 7 <1 *Ranking among all opening day starters, according to our Elo QB value ratings. Simulations as of Sept. 8, 2020. Source: ESPN
The NFC South got a big makeover with the addition of two new starting QBs this offseason, though the Saints are our favorites to win a fourth straight division title. Putting aside Drew Brees’s advanced age — and the chemistry fallout from his ill-advised remarks in June — he still ranks as the second-best QB in the league and leads one of the NFL’s best groups of offensive weapons. We think New Orleans is more likely to win the division (51 percent probability) than not. It’s interesting to compare the Buccaneers with the Saints, though, because Brady is also very, very old yet also has a talented supporting cast. We project Tampa to go 9-7 with a 4 percent shot at the Super Bowl, although nobody really knows what to expect until the Bucs take the field. The Falcons surged to the finish last year with six wins in their final eight games, and Matt Ryan is a top-10 QB according to Elo. But as usual, it’s unclear if their shaky defense (26th in EPA last year) has improved enough to truly contend again. And the Panthers are projected for last place after moving on from the once-stellar Newton Era. New QB Teddy Bridgewater is not bad at all, and RB Christian McCaffrey is a stat machine, but they still lack too much talent in too many places.
How we’re predicting the NFC West race Chance To … Team Starting QB QB Rank* Elo Rating Proj. Record Make Playoffs Win Division Win Super Bowl 49ers J. Garoppolo 25 1601 10-6 68% 41% 7% Seahawks Russell Wilson 8 1548 9-7 53 26 3 Rams Jared Goff 14 1541 9-7 49 23 3 Cardinals Kyler Murray 17 1465 7-9 28 10 <1 *Ranking among all opening day starters, according to our Elo QB value ratings. Simulations as of Sept. 8, 2020. Source: ESPN
The defending NFC champion San Francisco 49ers again lead the way in our NFC West forecast, with a 41 percent chance at winning the division. Though our model thinks surprisingly little of Jimmy Garoppolo under center, the Niners have built a very good team around him; they did their best this offseason to avoid the curse of Super Bowl losers (which is probably just another name for regression toward the mean). But the Seahawks and Rams both have more than a 20 percent shot at the division as well. (And both have starting QBs rated higher than Jimmy G.) Seattle’s Russell Wilson is a perennial MVP candidate, though the Seahawks could also be due for a decline after putting up a record wildly out of line with their point differential in 2019. Los Angeles has all-world D-lineman Aaron Donald leading what was a top-10 EPA defense last year, which will help the Rams factor into this division battle despite the hell they’ve found themselves in financially. And the Cardinals should just be flat-out fun with an improving Kyler Murray — who ranked 15th in Total QBR last year at age 22 — throwing to super-productive WR DeAndre Hopkins, even if we only give Arizona a 10 percent chance to win this stacked division.


2020 NFL Predictions

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