fivethirthyeight--2020-12-22--Which NBA Teams Might Make Things Interesting This Season?

We start with the return of the NBA , which also means the return of our NBA prediction model , powered by our RAPTOR player ratings .
We ’ ve gotten rid of some things — most notably the more predictive version of RAPTOR , which threw off our playoff predictions last year — and have also changed some things around to account for the ongoing pandemic that the league is going to start ( but hopefully not finish ) playing in .
Four teams — the Los Angeles Lakers , Milwaukee Bucks , Los Angeles Clippers and Boston Celtics @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the title this year , according to our model .
The fact that it ’ s not just the Lakers vs. the league is exciting , but teams that are prioritizing making the playoffs over winning it all are also going to make it interesting .
The Phoenix Suns and Dallas Mavericks look particularly exciting , and they seem like they ’ ve taken advantage of a much healthier process to get progressively better than the boom-or-bust approaches in Philadelphia and Brooklyn .
Next , we take one last look at the College @ @ @ @ @ @ @ been set .
Alabama and Clemson also seem set to run the table against Ohio State and Notre Dame , which is what makes the selection this year so frustrating .
We can ( and probably will ) argue about just how good the Big Ten still is or isn ’ t , and Ohio State ’ s place in all of that .
But Notre Dame showed in the ACC championship game that it is not the best team in college football , and the Irish are huge underdogs against Alabama .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ M or Cincinnati take their shot in the playoff and at least give us something different to watch ?
Maybe the Hot Takedown crew got its hopes up because 2020 was such a weird year , but so long as the incentives for the playoff committee remain the same , we ’ ll probably see the same teams show up over and over again .
Finally , in the Rabbit Hole , Neil examines some of the changes that may occur from the formal inclusion of the Negro Leagues — a collection of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ players were excluded from MLB and its affiliates — as major leagues .
There ’ s been some incredible research to reconstruct as much data as possible from the Negro Leagues , although there will definitely be growing pains in managing the data .
But we might also get 24 new no-hitters ; extra stats for players like Satchel Paige , Jackie Robinson , Willie Mays , Larry Doby and Roy Campanella ; and — most importantly — a step toward fairness for a group of players who could not find enough of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ re looking at this week : • Why college football championship week was never going to change the playoff picture .
• The Ringer on MLB ’ s initial consideration of undoing its major mistake .
• Plus , how Negro Leaguers may change baseball ’ s leaderboards .

We start with the return of the NBA, which also means the return of our NBA prediction model, powered by our RAPTOR player ratings. We’ve gotten rid of some things — most notably the more predictive version of RAPTOR, which threw off our playoff predictions last year — and have also changed some things around to account for the ongoing pandemic that the league is going to start (but hopefully not finish) playing in. Four teams — the Los Angeles Lakers, Milwaukee Bucks, Los Angeles Clippers and Boston Celtics — have double-digit odds of taking home the title this year, according to our model. The fact that it’s not just the Lakers vs. the league is exciting, but teams that are prioritizing making the playoffs over winning it all are also going to make it interesting. The Phoenix Suns and Dallas Mavericks look particularly exciting, and they seem like they’ve taken advantage of a much healthier process to get progressively better than the boom-or-bust approaches in Philadelphia and Brooklyn.
Next, we take one last look at the College Football Playoff now that it’s been set. Alabama and Clemson also seem set to run the table against Ohio State and Notre Dame, which is what makes the selection this year so frustrating. We can (and probably will) argue about just how good the Big Ten still is or isn’t, and Ohio State’s place in all of that. But Notre Dame showed in the ACC championship game that it is not the best team in college football, and the Irish are huge underdogs against Alabama. So why not let Texas A&M or Cincinnati take their shot in the playoff and at least give us something different to watch? Maybe the Hot Takedown crew got its hopes up because 2020 was such a weird year, but so long as the incentives for the playoff committee remain the same, we’ll probably see the same teams show up over and over again.
Finally, in the Rabbit Hole, Neil examines some of the changes that may occur from the formal inclusion of the Negro Leagues — a collection of segregation-era leagues that were formed because Black players were excluded from MLB and its affiliates — as major leagues. There’s been some incredible research to reconstruct as much data as possible from the Negro Leagues, although there will definitely be growing pains in managing the data. But we might also get 24 new no-hitters; extra stats for players like Satchel Paige, Jackie Robinson, Willie Mays, Larry Doby and Roy Campanella; and — most importantly — a step toward fairness for a group of players who could not find enough of it during their careers.
What we’re looking at this week:


fivethirthyeight--2020-12-22--California’s New Senator Will Make History. But Can He Win A Full Term In 2022?

With Sen. Kamala Harris about to become Vice President Kamala Harris , California is getting a new U.S. senator for only the second time in 25 years .
On Tuesday , Gov .
Gavin Newsom announced that he would appoint Democratic Secretary of State Alex Padilla to Harris ’ s soon-to-be vacant seat .
For months , Padilla has been seen as a logical choice for the job .
He ’ s got plenty of experience in California politics — Los Angeles city councilor ( 1999-2006 ) , state senator ( 2006-2015 ) and secretary of state ( 2015-present ) @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of the governor , and like Newsom he is more of a technocrat than someone who identifies clearly with either the progressive or moderate wing of the party .
He also brings geographical balance to the California delegation as the first senator from Southern California since John Seymour left office in 1992 .
Most notably , though , the son of Mexican immigrants will be California ’ s first senator of Hispanic descent — pretty surprising given that California has the third-highest share of Hispanic residents of any state in the country .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ residents are Hispanic ( 39 percent , compared with 37 percent who are non-Hispanic white , 14 percent who are Asian and 6 percent who are Black ) , making Padilla ’ s appointment a long overdue milestone .
Nevertheless , Newsom ’ s decision won ’ t please everyone .
The governor has been under pressure from virtually every constituency and interest group in the Democratic Party to pick a senator who represents them .
For instance , many civil-rights leaders and women ’ s groups were pressuring Newsom to choose a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Bass or Rep. Barbara Lee .
With Harris ’ s departure , there will be no Black women in the next Senate , and there have been only two in all of American history ( there are four current senators , and five former senators , of Hispanic descent ) .
So there is potential downside here for Newsom ’ s own political prospects as well .
“ This is not something that I wish even on my worst enemy , because you create enemies in this process , ” he lamented last @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a terrible time for Newsom to alienate potential allies ; he ’ s recently been raked over the coals for attending a crowded dinner party at a posh Napa Valley restaurant in violation of his own COVID-19 protocols . )
On the bright side for him ( and other ambitious California politicians ) , though , he does have more chances to placate these groups : He will also be tasked with appointing a replacement for Padilla as secretary of state , as well as a replacement for California Attorney General Xavier Becerra @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Joe Biden ’ s secretary of health and human services .
( There may yet be another Senate vacancy from California , too , as 87-year-old Dianne Feinstein is stepping down from her leadership position on the Senate Judiciary Committee , and some liberals have called on her to resign from the Senate entirely . )
So regardless of the health of Newsom ’ s own political career , he has the enviable — and extremely rare — opportunity to shape California politics for years to come .
How many years , though @ @ @ @ @ @ @ will have to face the voters in 2022 , when Harris ’ s Senate seat is up for election , and appointed incumbents do not enjoy the electoral advantage that elected incumbents do .
Being a senator from California is also an extremely desirable job : It ’ s one of the most powerful positions in the most populous state in the union , and given California ’ s strong Democratic lean ( Biden just won it by 29 percentage points ) , its Democratic senators have quite a bit of job security @ @ @ @ @ @ @ face a stiff challenge for his seat from some of the state ’ s other ambitious Democrats .
For example , many progressives would love to see Rep. Katie Porter , a protégée of Sen. Elizabeth Warren , seek a promotion , and Rep. Adam Schiff has $ 13.7 million in his campaign bank account despite his congressional district not being even remotely competitive .
Padilla also probably won ’ t be helped by California ’ s unusual top-two primary system , whereby all candidates run on the same ballot in the primary @ @ @ @ @ @ @ regardless of party — advance to the general election .
That means a potential Democratic challenger wouldn ’ t have to get more votes than the incumbent , as in most states ; instead , he or she would simply need to get more votes than the leading Republican ( or third-party ) candidate .
Again , given how blue California is , that ’ s an easy scenario to imagine : Indeed , two of California ’ s three Senate elections since the top-two primary was implemented have gone to a Democrat-on-Democrat @ @ @ @ @ @ @ aren ’ t in danger of losing California ’ s Senate seat to Republicans in 2022 , it might still be a competitive election worth watching all the way until November .

With Sen. Kamala Harris about to become Vice President Kamala Harris, California is getting a new U.S. senator for only the second time in 25 years. On Tuesday, Gov. Gavin Newsom announced that he would appoint Democratic Secretary of State Alex Padilla to Harris’s soon-to-be vacant seat.
For months, Padilla has been seen as a logical choice for the job. He’s got plenty of experience in California politics — Los Angeles city councilor (1999-2006), state senator (2006-2015) and secretary of state (2015-present). He’s a close ally of the governor, and like Newsom he is more of a technocrat than someone who identifies clearly with either the progressive or moderate wing of the party. He also brings geographical balance to the California delegation as the first senator from Southern California since John Seymour left office in 1992.
What do 1,200 books about Trump really tell us? | FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast
Most notably, though, the son of Mexican immigrants will be California’s first senator of Hispanic descent — pretty surprising given that California has the third-highest share of Hispanic residents of any state in the country. In fact, a plurality of California residents are Hispanic (39 percent, compared with 37 percent who are non-Hispanic white, 14 percent who are Asian and 6 percent who are Black), making Padilla’s appointment a long overdue milestone.
Nevertheless, Newsom’s decision won’t please everyone. The governor has been under pressure from virtually every constituency and interest group in the Democratic Party to pick a senator who represents them. For instance, many civil-rights leaders and women’s groups were pressuring Newsom to choose a Black woman, such as Rep. Karen Bass or Rep. Barbara Lee. With Harris’s departure, there will be no Black women in the next Senate, and there have been only two in all of American history (there are four current senators, and five former senators, of Hispanic descent).
[Democrats And Republicans Should Argue More — Not Less]
So there is potential downside here for Newsom’s own political prospects as well. “This is not something that I wish even on my worst enemy, because you create enemies in this process,” he lamented last month. (It’s also a terrible time for Newsom to alienate potential allies; he’s recently been raked over the coals for attending a crowded dinner party at a posh Napa Valley restaurant in violation of his own COVID-19 protocols.) On the bright side for him (and other ambitious California politicians), though, he does have more chances to placate these groups: He will also be tasked with appointing a replacement for Padilla as secretary of state, as well as a replacement for California Attorney General Xavier Becerra, who has been nominated to be Joe Biden’s secretary of health and human services. (There may yet be another Senate vacancy from California, too, as 87-year-old Dianne Feinstein is stepping down from her leadership position on the Senate Judiciary Committee, and some liberals have called on her to resign from the Senate entirely.) So regardless of the health of Newsom’s own political career, he has the enviable — and extremely rare — opportunity to shape California politics for years to come.
How many years, though, is an open question. Padilla will have to face the voters in 2022, when Harris’s Senate seat is up for election, and appointed incumbents do not enjoy the electoral advantage that elected incumbents do. Being a senator from California is also an extremely desirable job: It’s one of the most powerful positions in the most populous state in the union, and given California’s strong Democratic lean (Biden just won it by 29 percentage points), its Democratic senators have quite a bit of job security. So Padilla can probably expect to face a stiff challenge for his seat from some of the state’s other ambitious Democrats. For example, many progressives would love to see Rep. Katie Porter, a protégée of Sen. Elizabeth Warren, seek a promotion, and Rep. Adam Schiff has $13.7 million in his campaign bank account despite his congressional district not being even remotely competitive.
[What The Stimulus Tells Us About Compromise In D.C.]
Padilla also probably won’t be helped by California’s unusual top-two primary system, whereby all candidates run on the same ballot in the primary, and the top two finishers — regardless of party — advance to the general election. That means a potential Democratic challenger wouldn’t have to get more votes than the incumbent, as in most states; instead, he or she would simply need to get more votes than the leading Republican (or third-party) candidate. Again, given how blue California is, that’s an easy scenario to imagine: Indeed, two of California’s three Senate elections since the top-two primary was implemented have gone to a Democrat-on-Democrat general election. So while Democrats probably aren’t in danger of losing California’s Senate seat to Republicans in 2022, it might still be a competitive election worth watching all the way until November.


fivethirthyeight--2020-12-22--Dr. Fauci On When Life Will Return To ‘Normal’

It ’ s the holiday season , and thanks to the hard work of many , many scientists , we got the best gift of all : COVID-19 vaccines that work better than any of us could have imagined .
A lot still needs to be worked out and we ’ re in for a hard winter , but we ’ ve rounded the corner .
To talk about that , we spoke again with Dr. Anthony Fauci , the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases , which has been instrumental in the development of a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s episode of PODCAST-19 , Dr. Fauci talks about post-vaccine life , the new variant of the virus in the U.K. , the pandemic pitfalls awaiting the Biden administration , and which celebrity he would like to publicly get the vaccine .
You can watch the video above , or listen to it below .
And be sure to subscribe to our PODCAST-19 podcast feed .
Which celebrity would Dr. Anthony Fauci like to publicly get the vaccine ?
On the new coronavirus variant in the U.K. : Anna Rothschild : There @ @ @ @ @ @ @ new variant of the virus in the U.K. From what I understand , it ’ s still kind of unclear whether this mutation actually changed the virus in any meaningful way , or whether it ’ s just like a functionally irrelevant mutation that just happened to become more prevalent in , like , a superspreader event .
How worried are you about mutations complicating the vaccine rollout ?
Dr. Anthony Fauci : Well , I think it ’ s important to point out that since this is an RNA virus , we @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , and it will continue to mutate .
To think it ’ s not going to accumulate mutations is naive .
It will absolutely do that .
The real question is what you asked : Does the mutation induce a functional difference ?
Does it functionally change ?
Right now , it ’ s clear that this new variant is spreading pretty rapidly throughout southeastern England , and another variant is in South Africa .
And is it cause and effect ?
Is the mutation causing the increased spread ?
Or are you @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that ’ s after the fact ?
We don ’ t know that .
But we need to be careful .
We need to follow it very carefully .
We know that it almost certainly does not increase virulence , it isn ’ t a more deadly virus , number one .
And number two , it ’ s extremely unlikely that it ’ s going to interfere with the efficacy of a vaccine .
Having said that , we have to take mutations serious .
You don ’ t really have to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ travel from one to the other yet , but you need to take it seriously enough so that if it does have a significant functional effect , you can act accordingly .
On the pandemic response in the United States going forward : AR : How do you think the Biden administration will differ from the Trump administration in its approach to the pandemic ?
AF : I think there will probably be a uniformity of message instead of mixed signals .
I think there ’ ll be more central guidance as opposed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ own and letting them do things the way they want to do it .
I think there ’ s going to be a lot of attention to implementing the vaccine rollout correctly , not that it isn ’ t being done well now .
I think the current administration deserves a lot of credit for Operation Warp Speed , for sure .
Dr. Anthony Fauci on how the Biden administration will handle the pandemic AR : Looking back on the way President Trump handled the pandemic , how do you think he could @ @ @ @ @ @ @ I mean , obviously , there have been some bumps in the road .
But , in general , particularly when you look at the science and the vaccine success , that is huge .
I mean , that ’ s something that ’ s really quite unprecedented .
Obviously , you could always look back at your public health response and say , “ Could you have done better ?
” And the answer is : Of course .
I think any country looking back at their response will say that they @ @ @ @ @ @ @ What do you think is the biggest pitfall waiting for President-elect Biden as he takes over our COVID response ?
AF : I ’ m going to try and prevent those pitfalls if I can contribute in some way .
I think it ’ s going to be the divisiveness that ’ s still in our society ; I think that ’ s probably the thing that ’ s going to be most challenging .
It ’ s unfortunate that we ’ ve plowed through a historic pandemic , like nothing we ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and it ’ s been done in the context of a great deal of divisiveness in society .
I don ’ t think that necessarily is going to change right away with the change of administration .
So that ’ s going to be one of the things that ’ s going to be , I think , challenging to the new administration .
We have so many people who don ’ t believe that this is a problem , that think it ’ s a hoax , that think it ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ numbers are looking you square in the face telling us how serious this really is .
Dr. Anthony Fauci on the biggest challenges facing the Biden administration AR : When do you think we can expect to start seeing life get back to normal ?
AF : It ’ s going to depend on our success in vaccinating what I would say is an overwhelming majority of the population , between 70 to 85 percent .
If we can do that , by mid to end of the summer , I think as @ @ @ @ @ @ @ November , times like that , I think we will be very close to a degree of normality .
AR : And as you push through these next few months of uncertainty , what do you want Americans to keep in mind ?
AF : That this will end .
I think they need to know because a lot of people , understandably , have COVID fatigue .
They ’ re exhausted with this .
And it ’ s very difficult to maintain some public health standards and public health measures when you @ @ @ @ @ @ @ almost a year .
The first case in the United States was January 21 , 2020 .
So I think what we need to get people to understand is that help is on the way , there ’ s light at the end of the tunnel , and just hang in there a bit more and we ’ re going to be OK. Dr. Anthony Fauci on when the country will get back to normal | FiveThirtyEight

It’s the holiday season, and thanks to the hard work of many, many scientists, we got the best gift of all: COVID-19 vaccines that work better than any of us could have imagined. A lot still needs to be worked out and we’re in for a hard winter, but we’ve rounded the corner.
To talk about that, we spoke again with Dr. Anthony Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, which has been instrumental in the development of a vaccine against SARS-CoV-2. For this week’s episode of PODCAST-19, Dr. Fauci talks about post-vaccine life, the new variant of the virus in the U.K., the pandemic pitfalls awaiting the Biden administration, and which celebrity he would like to publicly get the vaccine.
You can watch the video above, or listen to it below. And be sure to subscribe to our PODCAST-19 podcast feed.
Which celebrity would Dr. Anthony Fauci like to publicly get the vaccine?
On the new coronavirus variant in the U.K.:
Anna Rothschild: There’s recently been news of a new variant of the virus in the U.K. From what I understand, it’s still kind of unclear whether this mutation actually changed the virus in any meaningful way, or whether it’s just like a functionally irrelevant mutation that just happened to become more prevalent in, like, a superspreader event. How worried are you about mutations complicating the vaccine rollout?
Dr. Anthony Fauci: Well, I think it’s important to point out that since this is an RNA virus, we’re going to see it mutate, and it will continue to mutate. To think it’s not going to accumulate mutations is naive. It will absolutely do that. The real question is what you asked: Does the mutation induce a functional difference? Does it functionally change? Right now, it’s clear that this new variant is spreading pretty rapidly throughout southeastern England, and another variant is in South Africa. And is it cause and effect? Is the mutation causing the increased spread? Or are you seeing the increased spread of a mutation that’s after the fact? We don’t know that. But we need to be careful. We need to follow it very carefully. We know that it almost certainly does not increase virulence, it isn’t a more deadly virus, number one. And number two, it’s extremely unlikely that it’s going to interfere with the efficacy of a vaccine. Having said that, we have to take mutations serious. You don’t really have to do anything draconian, like blocking any travel from one to the other yet, but you need to take it seriously enough so that if it does have a significant functional effect, you can act accordingly.
On the pandemic response in the United States going forward:
AR: How do you think the Biden administration will differ from the Trump administration in its approach to the pandemic?
AF: I think there will probably be a uniformity of message instead of mixed signals. I think there’ll be more central guidance as opposed to leaving the states completely on their own and letting them do things the way they want to do it. I think there’s going to be a lot of attention to implementing the vaccine rollout correctly, not that it isn’t being done well now. I think the current administration deserves a lot of credit for Operation Warp Speed, for sure.
Dr. Anthony Fauci on how the Biden administration will handle the pandemic
AR: Looking back on the way President Trump handled the pandemic, how do you think he could have saved more lives?
AF: I mean, obviously, there have been some bumps in the road. But, in general, particularly when you look at the science and the vaccine success, that is huge. I mean, that’s something that’s really quite unprecedented. Obviously, you could always look back at your public health response and say, “Could you have done better?” And the answer is: Of course. I think any country looking back at their response will say that they could have done better.
Dr. Anthony Fauci on President Donald Trump’s pandemic approach | FiveThirtyEight
AR: What do you think is the biggest pitfall waiting for President-elect Biden as he takes over our COVID response?
AF: I’m going to try and prevent those pitfalls if I can contribute in some way. I think it’s going to be the divisiveness that’s still in our society; I think that’s probably the thing that’s going to be most challenging. It’s unfortunate that we’ve plowed through a historic pandemic, like nothing we’ve ever seen in 102 years, and it’s been done in the context of a great deal of divisiveness in society. I don’t think that necessarily is going to change right away with the change of administration. So that’s going to be one of the things that’s going to be, I think, challenging to the new administration. We have so many people who don’t believe that this is a problem, that think it’s a hoax, that think it’s fake news, when in fact the numbers are looking you square in the face telling us how serious this really is.
Dr. Anthony Fauci on the biggest challenges facing the Biden administration
On returning to “normal”:
AR: When do you think we can expect to start seeing life get back to normal?
AF: It’s going to depend on our success in vaccinating what I would say is an overwhelming majority of the population, between 70 to 85 percent. If we can do that, by mid to end of the summer, I think as we get into fall, October, November, times like that, I think we will be very close to a degree of normality.
AR: And as you push through these next few months of uncertainty, what do you want Americans to keep in mind?
AF: That this will end. I think they need to know because a lot of people, understandably, have COVID fatigue. They’re exhausted with this. And it’s very difficult to maintain some public health standards and public health measures when you’ve been doing it now for almost a year. The first case in the United States was January 21, 2020. So I think what we need to get people to understand is that help is on the way, there’s light at the end of the tunnel, and just hang in there a bit more and we’re going to be OK.
Dr. Anthony Fauci on when the country will get back to normal | FiveThirtyEight
What the COVID-19 vaccine means for political battles to come


fivethirthyeight--2020-12-24--Are Defensive Play-Callers Consistent Enough To Be Exploitable?

If NFL analytics is a set of festive Russian nesting dolls , the final pea-sized matryoshka is defense .
We ’ re actually pretty good at understanding offensive skill position players at this point .
When a quarterback change is made on a team , our models and the betting markets move in response .
No Patrick Mahomes ?
“ That ’ s bad for Kansas City ’ s chances !
Let ’ s move the line down and predict fewer points scored.
” But when a defender is out , everyone shrugs .
No Xavien Howard ?
“ Um @ @ @ @ @ @ @ sure what that means for Miami.
” We know so little about defense that some unhinged analysts have even pounded out “ defense doesn ’ t matter ” on various social media platforms in fits of rage and frustration .
It ’ s likely that the lack of predictive power in defensive analytics has to do with the reactive nature of defense .
NFL defenses are highly interconnected , weak-link systems .
What does weak link mean ?
It means that if just one person in the defensive chain fails , the entire @ @ @ @ @ @ @ can measure that failure , but the fact that we can ’ t predict future defensive performance implies that the precise types of failures we ’ re measuring are unlikely to occur exactly that way again .
Most NFL defenses are good enough to not repeat the same mistakes over and over — they just find new and exciting ways to fail .
All of this makes apportioning blame and properly accounting for success pretty difficult .
But a recent tweet from Anthony Reinhard made me wonder if we can assign some of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ we successfully predict how coaches will respond to game states like obvious passing or obvious running situations ?
After all , defensive coordinators typically call the defensive plays , and they ’ re just one person , not an interconnected unit .
If we can predict what a coach will do , maybe we can gain a deeper understanding of how a defense is likely to react in certain situations .
Reinhard looked at how teams respond to probable passing and running situations by measuring the number of defenders that line up “ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the line of scrimmage — and comparing it to the probability that a team will drop back to pass .
In passing situations , it ’ s usually advantageous to drop a defender into coverage .
Likewise , if it ’ s a more obvious running situation , the defense will want to make sure they have enough players near the line of scrimmage to be “ gap sound ” and properly defend the run .
I took Reinhard ’ s idea and calculated a new metric based on it : Defenders in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Then I looked at how stable DBOE was year-to-year by subsetting the data to just teams with the same defensive coordinator from one year to the next .
It turns out that DBOE is remarkably stable , a rare feature for an advanced defensive metric , indicating that coaches tend to react to obvious passing and rushing situations in reliable ways over time .
Interestingly , in the period for which we have data , the league has moved toward favoring lighter boxes over what we might expect .
The downward trend @ @ @ @ @ @ @ around 2019 .
And in 2020 , the trend reversed itself entirely .
There ’ s more work that needs to be done to apply DBOE to football in useful ways , but the implications are interesting .
If a defensive coordinator will reliably overcommit defenders to the box in obvious passing situations , opposing offenses could potentially take advantage .
Similarly , defenses that back off and play the pass on more obvious rushing downs could be exploited by an offense spreading out the defense and running .
Even better , DBOE @ @ @ @ @ @ @ play being a dropback , a metric that ’ s fairly opaque to a defensive play-caller since they often simply match big bodies to big bodies when the offense trots out their personnel .
That means having a high or low DBOE isn ’ t a tendency the defensive coordinator can easily obscure without some effort .
It ’ s likely an integral part of how that coach approaches calling a game .
Here is the full list of NFL defensive coordinators and their DBOE , through Week 15 : Through Week 15 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to be most concerned about getting beat through the air include Brandon Staley of the Los Angeles Rams and Ed Donatell of the Denver Broncos .
The Rams have one of the best defenses in the league this year , allowing a league-low 4.6 yards per offensive play .
( Of course , they also have Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey , which probably has something to do with that . )
Meanwhile , the Broncos have been less successful , ranking 13th in the league at 5.5 yards allowed per play .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ , Todd Wash of the Jacksonville Jaguars and Jack Del Rio of the Washington Football Team would prefer to stack the box to prevent the easy yards on the ground .
Jacksonville has the league ’ s worst defense , allowing 6.3 yards per play , but Washington is fourth best at 5.0 yards per play .
All of this suggests that while DBOE might help us understand coaches and their preferences , football is still a game predicated on having good players on the field — especially on defense .
Looking ahead @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of Week 16 — from a Super Bowl odds perspective , at least — features the Tennessee Titans paying a visit to the Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field .
Neither team is in danger of missing the playoffs , but there ’ s still plenty to play for : The Pack have not yet locked up the NFC ’ s lone first-round bye , but they could with a win and losses by the Saints and Seahawks .
And as AFC South leaders by way of a tiebreaker with Indianapolis , the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ seed in the conference , though they need to keep pace with Indy in order to host a playoff game instead of going on the road .
That sets the stakes in this one , where each team ’ s weak defensive link will get a stress test against the NFL ’ s best before the playoffs : Tennessee ’ s suspect pass defense ( No .
28 in schedule-adjusted EPA ) going against Aaron Rodgers , and Green Bay ’ s awful run D ( No .
27 ) staring down Derrick @ @ @ @ @ @ @ great form right now as well , with Tennessee winning four of its past five contests while Green Bay has won four straight ( and six of seven ) .
We think the Packers — playing at home — have the edge , with a 62 percent chance of grabbing the W and moving closer to the No .
1 seed in the NFC .
Elo ’ s spread : Green Bay -3½

If NFL analytics is a set of festive Russian nesting dolls, the final pea-sized matryoshka is defense. We’re actually pretty good at understanding offensive skill position players at this point. When a quarterback change is made on a team, our models and the betting markets move in response. No Patrick Mahomes? “That’s bad for Kansas City’s chances! Let’s move the line down and predict fewer points scored.” But when a defender is out, everyone shrugs. No Xavien Howard? “Um, well, I’m not sure what that means for Miami.” We know so little about defense that some unhinged analysts have even pounded out “defense doesn’t matter” on various social media platforms in fits of rage and frustration.
Who’s the most chaotic fictional football coach? | FiveThirtyEight
It’s likely that the lack of predictive power in defensive analytics has to do with the reactive nature of defense. NFL defenses are highly interconnected, weak-link systems. What does weak link mean? It means that if just one person in the defensive chain fails, the entire unit is assigned that failure. We can measure that failure, but the fact that we can’t predict future defensive performance implies that the precise types of failures we’re measuring are unlikely to occur exactly that way again. Most NFL defenses are good enough to not repeat the same mistakes over and over — they just find new and exciting ways to fail. All of this makes apportioning blame and properly accounting for success pretty difficult.
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But a recent tweet from Anthony Reinhard made me wonder if we can assign some of that blame reliably on coaches. Could we successfully predict how coaches will respond to game states like obvious passing or obvious running situations? After all, defensive coordinators typically call the defensive plays, and they’re just one person, not an interconnected unit. If we can predict what a coach will do, maybe we can gain a deeper understanding of how a defense is likely to react in certain situations.
Yesterday I tweeted a graph showing the average number of defenders in box by offense. Today, I have defenses. These are probably less biased by offensive formation as each defense is likely to have played something resembling an average offense personnel-wise in aggregate pic.twitter.com/iANXGwgbol — Anthony Reinhard (@reinhurdler) December 11, 2020
Reinhard looked at how teams respond to probable passing and running situations by measuring the number of defenders that line up “in the box” — or near the line of scrimmage — and comparing it to the probability that a team will drop back to pass. In passing situations, it’s usually advantageous to drop a defender into coverage. Likewise, if it’s a more obvious running situation, the defense will want to make sure they have enough players near the line of scrimmage to be “gap sound” and properly defend the run.
I took Reinhard’s idea and calculated a new metric based on it: Defenders in the Box Over Expected (DBOE). Then I looked at how stable DBOE was year-to-year by subsetting the data to just teams with the same defensive coordinator from one year to the next.
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It turns out that DBOE is remarkably stable, a rare feature for an advanced defensive metric, indicating that coaches tend to react to obvious passing and rushing situations in reliable ways over time.
Interestingly, in the period for which we have data, the league has moved toward favoring lighter boxes over what we might expect. The downward trend was pretty reliable, right up until around 2019. And in 2020, the trend reversed itself entirely.
There’s more work that needs to be done to apply DBOE to football in useful ways, but the implications are interesting. If a defensive coordinator will reliably overcommit defenders to the box in obvious passing situations, opposing offenses could potentially take advantage. Similarly, defenses that back off and play the pass on more obvious rushing downs could be exploited by an offense spreading out the defense and running. Even better, DBOE is based on the probability of a play being a dropback, a metric that’s fairly opaque to a defensive play-caller since they often simply match big bodies to big bodies when the offense trots out their personnel. That means having a high or low DBOE isn’t a tendency the defensive coordinator can easily obscure without some effort. It’s likely an integral part of how that coach approaches calling a game.
Here is the full list of NFL defensive coordinators and their DBOE, through Week 15:
The Rams stack the box less, the Jaguars more NFL teams by Defenders in the Box Over Expected (DBOE) on all regular-season plays for which the probability of a dropback could be calculated Team Coordinator dboe Los Angeles Rams Brandon Staley -0.44 Denver Broncos Ed Donatell -0.26 New York Giants Patrick Graham -0.23 Green Bay Packers Mike Pettine -0.22 Carolina Panthers Phil Snow -0.22 New England Patriots Bill Belichick* -0.22 Pittsburgh Steelers Keith Butler -0.12 Indianapolis Colts Matt Eberflus -0.05 Buffalo Bills Leslie Frazier -0.02 Chicago Bears Chuck Pagano +0.01 Philadelphia Eagles Jim Schwartz +0.01 Los Angeles Chargers Gus Bradley +0.01 Las Vegas Raiders Paul Guenther +0.05 Tennessee Titans Mike Vrabel* +0.05 Detroit Lions Cory Undlin +0.05 Cleveland Browns Joe Woods +0.08 Dallas Cowboys Mike Nolan +0.10 Seattle Seahawks Ken Norton Jr. +0.11 New Orleans Saints Dennis Allen +0.12 Houston Texans Anthony Weaver +0.13 New York Jets Gregg Williams/Frank Bush +0.14 Arizona Cardinals Vance Joseph +0.16 Atlanta Falcons Raheem Morris/Jeff Ulbrich +0.16 Miami Dolphins Josh Boyer +0.18 Cincinnati Bengals Lou Anarumo +0.20 San Francisco 49ers Robert Saleh +0.23 Minnesota Vikings Andre Patterson & Adam Zimmer +0.24 Baltimore Ravens Don Martindale +0.24 Kansas City Chiefs Steve Spagnuolo +0.24 Tampa Bay Buccaneers Todd Bowles +0.29 Washington Football Team Jack Del Rio +0.33 Jacksonville Jaguars Todd Wash +0.38 Through Week 15. *The Patriots and Titans don’t have official defensive coordinators separate from the head coaches. Other head coaches may be involved in defensive play calling. Source: ESPN Stats & Information Group
Through Week 15 this year, the coordinators who seem to be most concerned about getting beat through the air include Brandon Staley of the Los Angeles Rams and Ed Donatell of the Denver Broncos. The Rams have one of the best defenses in the league this year, allowing a league-low 4.6 yards per offensive play. (Of course, they also have Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey, which probably has something to do with that.) Meanwhile, the Broncos have been less successful, ranking 13th in the league at 5.5 yards allowed per play.
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On the other end of the spectrum, Todd Wash of the Jacksonville Jaguars and Jack Del Rio of the Washington Football Team would prefer to stack the box to prevent the easy yards on the ground. Jacksonville has the league’s worst defense, allowing 6.3 yards per play, but Washington is fourth best at 5.0 yards per play. All of this suggests that while DBOE might help us understand coaches and their preferences, football is still a game predicated on having good players on the field — especially on defense.
FiveThirtyEight’s NFL Elo ratings How each team ranks through Week 15 of the 2020 season, according to our quarterback-adjusted predictions Chance To … Rk Team Starting QB QB Rk* Elo Rating Proj. Wins Make Playoffs Win Div. Win SB 1 Chiefs Mahomes 1 1771 14.8 100% 100% 35% 2 Saints Brees 7 1715 11.6 100 97 18 3 Bills Allen 3 1689 12.5 100 100 10 4 Packers Rodgers 4 1656 12.3 100 100 13 5 Ravens Jackson 5 1644 10.7 86 0 3 6 Colts Rivers 14 1622 11.4 92 44 3 7 Bucs Brady 10 1610 10.5 99 3 4 8 Titans Tannehill 8 1609 11.1 98 56 3 9 Browns Mayfield 16 1591 11.4 93 27 2 10 Seahawks Wilson 9 1587 11.2 100 65 3 11 Rams Goff 17 1584 10.1 98 35 2 12 Steelers R’lisberger 12 1568 11.9 100 73 2 13 Cardinals Murray 2 1538 9.0 70 0 1 14 Dolphins Tagovailoa 23 1536 9.9 32 0 <1 15 Bears Trubisky 21 1516 8.1 31 0 <1 16 Patriots Newton 25 1494 7.1 0 0 0 17 Vikings Cousins 18 1493 6.8 2 0 <1 18 Broncos Lock 28 1465 6.1 0 0 0 19 49ers Beathard 30 1459 5.7 0 0 0 20 Falcons Ryan 20 1453 4.4 0 0 0 21 Wash. Smith✚ 26 1447 7.1 74 74 <1 22 Eagles Hurts 24 1434 5.5 10 10 <1 23 Panthers Bridgewater 11 1431 4.6 0 0 0 24 Chargers Herbert 13 1429 5.6 0 0 0 25 Texans Watson 6 1428 5.0 0 0 0 26 Cowboys Dalton 27 1407 6.0 5 5 <1 27 Raiders Carr✚ 15 1397 7.8 <1 0 <1 28 Giants Jones✚ 29 1391 5.7 11 11 <1 29 Lions Stafford 19 1360 5.6 0 0 0 30 Bengals Allen✚ 32 1313 3.9 0 0 0 31 Jaguars Minshew 22 1294 1.4 0 0 0 32 Jets Darnold 31 1292 1.4 0 0 0 *Ranking among Week 16 starters, according to our QB Elo ratings. ✚ Starter is currently injured and may not play. †Starter could be replaced for performance reasons. Simulations as of Dec. 23, 2020. Source: ESPN
Looking ahead: The best and most significant game of Week 16 — from a Super Bowl odds perspective, at least — features the Tennessee Titans paying a visit to the Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field. Neither team is in danger of missing the playoffs, but there’s still plenty to play for: The Pack have not yet locked up the NFC’s lone first-round bye, but they could with a win and losses by the Saints and Seahawks. And as AFC South leaders by way of a tiebreaker with Indianapolis, the Titans are currently the No. 4 seed in the conference, though they need to keep pace with Indy in order to host a playoff game instead of going on the road. That sets the stakes in this one, where each team’s weak defensive link will get a stress test against the NFL’s best before the playoffs: Tennessee’s suspect pass defense (No. 28 in schedule-adjusted EPA) going against Aaron Rodgers, and Green Bay’s awful run D (No. 27) staring down Derrick Henry. Both teams are in pretty great form right now as well, with Tennessee winning four of its past five contests while Green Bay has won four straight (and six of seven). We think the Packers — playing at home — have the edge, with a 62 percent chance of grabbing the W and moving closer to the No. 1 seed in the NFC. Elo’s spread: Green Bay -3½
Neil Paine contributed research.
Check out our latest NFL predictions.


fivethirthyeight--2020-12-22--What Makes LeBron James The GOAT

What Makes LeBron James The GOAT

We know which athletes are great , but we know less about what makes them great .
To help , FiveThirtyEight is compiling The Greatness Files , a compendium of , well , what makes great athletes great .
First up , a rising star named LeBron James .
This is not another LeBron James vs. Michael Jordan article .
Whenever LeBron reaches another NBA Finals , sports fans are treated to a tired , picked-over argument about the best player of all time .
But no definitive answer is reached , and the topic goes back into the freezer @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to drag it back out .
But that debate obscures what , specifically , makes James so great to begin with : his seemingly infinite longevity as perhaps the best player in the world , and how he can change what he ’ s so good at to fit the needs of his team .
James has enjoyed a run of 15 consecutive seasons ( and counting ) in which he ranked among the league ’ s top five players , according to a combination ranking we cooked up based on MVP voting @ @ @ @ @ @ @ two other NBA players since 1977 — Hall of Fame guards Magic Johnson and John Stockton — have ever pieced together a run of 10 straight seasons or more as a top-five player , and neither had runs as long as LeBron .
Stockton was famously durable but finished without a single NBA title .
Johnson won five championships , one more than LeBron , but logged nearly 500 fewer games between the regular season and playoffs .
With almost an entire hand ’ s worth of rings to go with his nearly @ @ @ @ @ @ @ has been the best of both worlds .
He ’ s outlasted his elite contemporaries and somehow is still widely seen as the best player on the planet , even as other Terminators and Greek Gods — who are between about six and 10 years younger and in their prime — come for his throne .
That ’ s in part because LeBron has been great in so many ways — he changes his game every few years .
At different points in his career , he ’ s been elite — if @ @ @ @ @ @ @ — in virtually every facet of the game .
He led the league in scoring as a 23-year-old in Cleveland before he had anything close to an elite supporting cast , and he is still a wildly efficient , unstoppable finisher around the rim .
The soon-to-be 36-year-old just led the NBA in assists for the first time in his career ( a mere 17 seasons in ) , and he has talked before about studying where , specifically , his teammates like his passes to be positioned in order for them to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ joked ( or didn ’ t ) that new teammate Marc Gasol ’ s 2013 Defensive Player of the Year Award should belong to him .
And while James hasn ’ t been a DPOY candidate in quite some time now , he ’ s shown he can still terrorize on that end when he truly wants to .
You can see how LeBron ’ s skill set morphed year to year in the charts below , which compare LeBron ’ s skill to the NBA ’ s high-water mark during his era @ @ @ @ @ @ @ worst of the league during the season in question ( the innermost circle ) .
Baby LeBron was still pretty raw — as a 19-year-old , he was already doing surprisingly well in a variety of different areas , but nothing stood out as a dominant trait .
And his shooting was quite poor , as James ’ s 29 percent conversion rate from downtown ranked fourth-worst among all qualified NBA players .
Luckily , he had ample time ( and talent ) to improve .
By 2008-09 , LeBron was a very @ @ @ @ @ @ @ than he ’ d been as a rookie .
He ’ d started filling the basket with the same frequency as the best scorer of the era ( Kobe Bryant ) , expanded his passing skills and even became one of the best defenders in basketball .
But there was one area of LeBron ’ s game that still needed some improvement… As great as LeBron was in 2008-09 , the years that followed — after he left Cleveland for Miami — saw him push the boundaries of his full potential .
While @ @ @ @ @ @ @ level and playing good D , James set a career high for rebound rate … and finally became an elite 3-point shooter ( knocking down nearly 41 percent of his shots from downtown ) .
At the advanced age of 35 , LeBron isn ’ t the same as he was a decade earlier .
Though he still scores a lot , he had a down year shooting in 2019-20 and picked his spots more on defense .
But James also showed he could be the most productive passer in the league — @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the first time .
It was yet another evolution in a career full of them .
Speaking of James ’ s clap-on , clap-off skill set , arguably the most incredible development we ’ ve seen over LeBron ’ s career is the ability to go from being statistically the worst jump-shooter in the NBA midway through the 2015-16 season to being a pretty damn good one now .
And not just that , but also being perhaps the most prolific long , long range shooter in basketball .
The ability to serve @ @ @ @ @ @ @ having one of the league ’ s highest on-court IQs , explains why his slightly diminished athleticism hasn ’ t hindered him yet .
Even if he couldn ’ t get to the rim and elevate over folks anymore ( which , he still can ) , he ’ d be able to shoot well enough to compensate .
Between having a Magic-like ability to see the floor and pass the ball , the imposing physical presence of a Karl Malone , shooting range that ’ s comparable to Stephen Curry or Dame @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Paul ’ s , LeBron is a scary-ass , Frankenstein of an NBA player .
He ’ s made up of many of the best players ’ best attributes , all wrapped up in one of the most hyperathletic , runaway freight-train packages the NBA has ever seen .
LeBron ’ s greatness isn ’ t just captured in the numbers , either .
One thing that consistently stands out when watching LeBron is how much everything in his peripheral space — the nine other players on the court , coaches shouting from @ @ @ @ @ @ @ seemingly slows down or stands still for him .
Much like Minority Report , where Tom Cruise ’ s character can see the future play out , a lot of James ’ s brilliance stems from seeing things unfold one or two steps ahead of everyone else .
Ex-teammate Iman Shumpert still finds himself amazed with how James is able to direct traffic and move chess pieces around to confuse and manipulate defenses to his liking , then pick them apart with a perfect pass once they ’ ve strayed too far from @ @ @ @ @ @ @ There ’ ll be times where he ’ ll say , ‘ Shump !
If he move , cut right behind him !
Cut right behind him if he move !
’ ” Shumpert has said .
“ And everything he ’ s saying , you just watch it happen .
And the moment [ the defender ] flinches , [ I ’ m cutting for a ] catch and dunk.
” James has basically made time stand still as the king of his sport for nearly a decade and a half .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ else .

We know which athletes are great, but we know less about what makes them great. To help, FiveThirtyEight is compiling The Greatness Files, a compendium of, well, what makes great athletes great. First up, a rising star named LeBron James.
This is not another LeBron James vs. Michael Jordan article. Whenever LeBron reaches another NBA Finals, sports fans are treated to a tired, picked-over argument about the best player of all time. But no definitive answer is reached, and the topic goes back into the freezer until media networks find a new reason to drag it back out.
But that debate obscures what, specifically, makes James so great to begin with: his seemingly infinite longevity as perhaps the best player in the world, and how he can change what he’s so good at to fit the needs of his team.
James has enjoyed a run of 15 consecutive seasons (and counting) in which he ranked among the league’s top five players, according to a combination ranking we cooked up based on MVP voting and our RAPTOR WAR metric. Just two other NBA players since 1977 — Hall of Fame guards Magic Johnson and John Stockton — have ever pieced together a run of 10 straight seasons or more as a top-five player, and neither had runs as long as LeBron.
Stockton was famously durable but finished without a single NBA title. Johnson won five championships, one more than LeBron, but logged nearly 500 fewer games between the regular season and playoffs. With almost an entire hand’s worth of rings to go with his nearly unparalleled record of superstar-level longevity, James has been the best of both worlds. He’s outlasted his elite contemporaries and somehow is still widely seen as the best player on the planet, even as other Terminators and Greek Gods — who are between about six and 10 years younger and in their prime — come for his throne.
That’s in part because LeBron has been great in so many ways — he changes his game every few years. At different points in his career, he’s been elite — if not the very best in the league — in virtually every facet of the game. He led the league in scoring as a 23-year-old in Cleveland before he had anything close to an elite supporting cast, and he is still a wildly efficient, unstoppable finisher around the rim. The soon-to-be 36-year-old just led the NBA in assists for the first time in his career (a mere 17 seasons in), and he has talked before about studying where, specifically, his teammates like his passes to be positioned in order for them to shoot more accurately. Recently, he joked (or didn’t) that new teammate Marc Gasol’s 2013 Defensive Player of the Year Award should belong to him. And while James hasn’t been a DPOY candidate in quite some time now, he’s shown he can still terrorize on that end when he truly wants to.
You can see how LeBron’s skill set morphed year to year in the charts below, which compare LeBron’s skill to the NBA’s high-water mark during his era (the outermost circle) and the worst of the league during the season in question (the innermost circle).
Baby LeBron was still pretty raw — as a 19-year-old, he was already doing surprisingly well in a variety of different areas, but nothing stood out as a dominant trait. And his shooting was quite poor, as James’s 29 percent conversion rate from downtown ranked fourth-worst among all qualified NBA players. Luckily, he had ample time (and talent) to improve.
By 2008-09, LeBron was a very different — and much better — player than he’d been as a rookie. He’d started filling the basket with the same frequency as the best scorer of the era (Kobe Bryant), expanded his passing skills and even became one of the best defenders in basketball. But there was one area of LeBron’s game that still needed some improvement…
As great as LeBron was in 2008-09, the years that followed — after he left Cleveland for Miami — saw him push the boundaries of his full potential. While still scoring and passing at an elite level and playing good D, James set a career high for rebound rate … and finally became an elite 3-point shooter (knocking down nearly 41 percent of his shots from downtown).
At the advanced age of 35, LeBron isn’t the same as he was a decade earlier. Though he still scores a lot, he had a down year shooting in 2019-20 and picked his spots more on defense. But James also showed he could be the most productive passer in the league — leading the NBA in assist rate for the first time. It was yet another evolution in a career full of them.
Speaking of James’s clap-on, clap-off skill set, arguably the most incredible development we’ve seen over LeBron’s career is the ability to go from being statistically the worst jump-shooter in the NBA midway through the 2015-16 season to being a pretty damn good one now. And not just that, but also being perhaps the most prolific long, long range shooter in basketball.
The ability to serve as an occasional marksman, along with having one of the league’s highest on-court IQs, explains why his slightly diminished athleticism hasn’t hindered him yet. Even if he couldn’t get to the rim and elevate over folks anymore (which, he still can), he’d be able to shoot well enough to compensate.
Between having a Magic-like ability to see the floor and pass the ball, the imposing physical presence of a Karl Malone, shooting range that’s comparable to Stephen Curry or Dame Lillard and on-court smarts that rival Chris Paul’s, LeBron is a scary-ass, Frankenstein of an NBA player. He’s made up of many of the best players’ best attributes, all wrapped up in one of the most hyperathletic, runaway freight-train packages the NBA has ever seen.
LeBron’s greatness isn’t just captured in the numbers, either. One thing that consistently stands out when watching LeBron is how much everything in his peripheral space — the nine other players on the court, coaches shouting from the sidelines and thousands of fans — seemingly slows down or stands still for him. Much like Minority Report, where Tom Cruise’s character can see the future play out, a lot of James’s brilliance stems from seeing things unfold one or two steps ahead of everyone else.
Ex-teammate Iman Shumpert still finds himself amazed with how James is able to direct traffic and move chess pieces around to confuse and manipulate defenses to his liking, then pick them apart with a perfect pass once they’ve strayed too far from where they should actually be.
“There’ll be times where he’ll say, ‘Shump! If he move, cut right behind him! Cut right behind him if he move!’” Shumpert has said. “And everything he’s saying, you just watch it happen. And the moment [the defender] flinches, [I’m cutting for a] catch and dunk.”
James has basically made time stand still as the king of his sport for nearly a decade and a half. That explains his greatness more than anything else.
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fivethirthyeight--2020-12-28--Politics Podcast: Goodbye To 2020

Politics Podcast: Goodbye To 2020

In the final 2020 installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast , the crew looks back at the rough and wild @ @ @ @ @ They consider the most surprising political stories of the year , fess up to what @ @ @ @ @ ( or wrong ) and answer questions from listeners .
They also assess whether many @ @ @ @ @ out the Georgia Senate runoffs is a “ good or bad use of polling.
” @ @ @ @ @ episode by clicking the “ play ” button in the audio player above or by @ @ @ @ @ the ESPN App or your favorite podcast platform .
If you are new to podcasts @ @ @ @ @ .
The FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast is recorded Mondays and Thursdays .
Help new listeners discover @ @ @ @ @ a rating and review on iTunes .
Have a comment , question or suggestion for @ @ @ @ @ polling ” ?
Get in touch by email , on Twitter or in the comments @

In the final 2020 installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the crew looks back at a rough and wild year. They consider the most surprising political stories of the year, fess up to what they think they got right (or wrong) and answer questions from listeners. They also assess whether many pollsters’ decision to sit out the Georgia Senate runoffs is a good or bad use of polling.
You can listen to the episode by clicking the “play” button in the audio player above or by downloading it in iTunes, the ESPN App or your favorite podcast platform. If you are new to podcasts, learn how to listen.
The FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast is recorded Mondays and Thursdays. Help new listeners discover the show by leaving us a rating and review on iTunes. Have a comment, question or suggestion for “good polling vs. bad polling”? Get in touch by email, on Twitter or in the comments.


fivethirthyeight--2020-12-28--It’s Almost Over, But There’s Still So Much Left

sara.ziegler ( Sara Ziegler , sports editor ) : There ’ s only one week left in the NFL ’ s regular season , but so much is still up for grabs .
Week 16 clarified a few things : The Chiefs nailed down the AFC ’ s first-round bye , the Buccaneers ended their postseason drought , and the Jaguars claimed the first pick in next year ’ s draft .
But that ’ s about it .
Remarkably , only seven of the 14 playoff spots have been claimed so far .
Five teams are battling for the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ three teams are duking it out for the last two NFC wild cards , and three of the four terrible NFC East teams are still alive , guaranteeing we ’ ll have one below-.500 team — no less than what we deserve this year .
So let ’ s take a spin through the games that got us to where we are right now .
There were many dramatic finishes over the weekend , but we ’ ll start with Saturday ’ s wild Miami-Las Vegas matchup .
I loved ESPN ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that game : Four lead changes in the final four minutes !
neil ( Neil Paine , senior sportswriter ) : Who would have guessed that Dolphins-Raiders would redeem our day-after-Christmas football viewing ?
( Which kicked off with the Lions delivering one of the most listless performances we ’ ve seen in years and continued with the Cardinals not looking much more playoff-worthy on a “ channel ” nobody over 50 knew how to watch on . )
Salfino ( Michael Salfino , FiveThirtyEight contributor ) : The last five minutes of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a team ever purposely not scored when the defense was letting them and then lost ?
neil : The Falcons were looking at that and saying , “ YOU SEE ?
It doesn ’ t ALWAYS work !
” joshua.hermsmeyer ( Josh Hermsmeyer , NFL analyst ) : Last week , we talked a little about not coddling QBs and making them compete .
Dolphins head coach Brian Flores has taken that to another level by tapping into FitzMagic and benching Tua Tagovailoa whenever the mood strikes him .
I love it .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ a bad harbinger for Tua .
But what Ryan Fitzpatrick did after Tua was floundering , with less than 100 passing yards , was incredible .
And it was historic when you consider that Fitz put up those yards in less than a quarter and factoring in what the starter did .
joshua.hermsmeyer : Whenever you can be historic like Sage Rosenfels , you just have to do it .
neil : ( I mean , he was the Tom Brady of the preseason… ) sara.ziegler : There will be no Sage defamation @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ ve talked all season about the tug-of-war between Miami winning now — where Fitz gives them the best chance — and setting Tua up to succeed later ( but maybe at the expense of this year ) .
Flores is now taking that have-our-cake-and-eat-it-too mentality to the absolute extreme .
sara.ziegler : I kinda love the starter-closer setup !
It ’ s an interesting way to change looks on a defense , and if the quarterbacks are OK with it , why not ?
Salfino : If you have a starter/closer , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ starter.
” neil : Maybe Tua is the “ opener.
” joshua.hermsmeyer : Mike trotting out the “ if you have two QBs you don ’ t have one ” line on this , my Monday .
Salfino : A variation , yes .
No less true than the original .
neil : It is kind of funny because that ’ s how Tua made his first big splash : As the “ closer ” for Jalen Hurts in the national title game with Alabama .
Now he knows how Hurts felt !
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ , the Dolphins are not good , but they keep winning .
neil : They are good on defense !
They ’ re second in defensive SRS and seventh in schedule-adjusted expected points added ( EPA ) per game .
Salfino : The Dolphins defense is bad at net yards per attempt ( ninth worst ) but great at opposing yards per point .
I ignore that stat , but I wonder if it ’ s part of the ratings Neil cited .
neil : Yeah , they don ’ t allow many @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , Mike .
joshua.hermsmeyer : The Dolphins can lose to the Bills this week and still make the playoffs .
If they lose and the Colts lose again , for instance , we can still see some playoff FinsMagic .
Salfino : But maybe not FitzMagic .
Wouldn ’ t you guys start Fitz now ?
What are we playing around for now after Christmas ?
neil : With a team built on defensive strength , maybe it does make sense to “ open ” with a game manager type at QB and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ D … but have Fitzy around in case you really need to make a comeback late .
sara.ziegler : IDK , I keep thinking of times when a starter has gotten hurt and a backup has come in and confused a defense .
Isn ’ t this just putting that into action ?
If a team doesn ’ t plan to face Fitzpatrick , he could hurt them at the end of a game , right ?
joshua.hermsmeyer : I think so , Sara .
Plus , a rookie QB is probably the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ committee approach .
However , the Mikes of the world will have their knives out pretty quickly when they lose using the approach .
Salfino : Is it that Fitzpatrick is different or just better ?
Is being better the thing that ’ s making him different ?
neil : A charitable comparison ( for Tua ) would say he is much lower variance .
Fitzy is higher risk , higher reward — higher touchdown percentage , higher yards per attempt , much higher interception percentage .
So they do offer different profiles @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the wisdom of playing Tua to find out more about him because the Dolphins are not good enough to win anything .
I just think that this is a bad message to send to the team , or at least one you have to worry about selling to the team .
sara.ziegler : So let ’ s move on to the Colts-Steelers game , which started with the Steelers continuing their very bad look of the past few games and ended in a Pittsburgh rally and Indianapolis collapse .
What can we make @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Man , I was writing Ben Roethlisberger ’ s NFL obit , and he made me look really dumb .
He had been terrible for most of the season and certainly the past six weeks .
Where did that come from ?
I mean , look at these Roethlisberger game logs and then realize he was on his way to another day with a sub-6.0 yards per attempt before he somehow flipped a switch back to 2018. joshua.hermsmeyer : I credit the Steelers defense with completely shifting the momentum .
Prove me wrong @ @ @ @ @ @ @ defense would be huge in the game given that the Colts were so depleted on the offensive line with COVID-19/injuries .
But I really thought a 24-7 deficit for THIS version of Roethlisberger and Pittsburgh ’ s heretofore pop-gun passing game was too big a hill to climb .
neil : The Colts ’ last five drives of that game : punt , punt , punt , INT , turnover on downs .
Pretty good defensive response .
joshua.hermsmeyer : I ’ m shocked the Steelers pulled off a win with just 20 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to go against the winning formula .
Salfino : It was the first 17-point ( or more ) second-half comeback win in Roethlisberger ’ s career .
joshua.hermsmeyer : It was Mike Tomlin ’ s first second-half comeback of 17 points or more as well .
Nice way to clinch the division for a great coach .
sara.ziegler : The team the Steelers could have lost the division to had an interesting day as well .
sara.ziegler : The Browns followed in the Rams ’ footsteps and could not overcome the mighty Jets @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Well , the Browns were in a weird spot with no receiving corps due to COVID-19 .
The Jets were without their best player on defense .
Still I expected the Browns to have trouble running against the Jets , and they did .
That was the story of this game .
What a weird ending for the Jets — the first team with multiple wins in a season against teams with at least nine more wins than they had .
neil : In related news , neither the Rams nor the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ playoffs anymore .
sara.ziegler : That ’ s what happens when you lose to the Jets… Salfino : Are the Browns in with a win , Neil ?
The Rams need help though , right ?
neil : Both teams are in with wins .
Salfino : So in a sense , their losses to the Jets don ’ t hurt them … but they really hurt the Jets .
joshua.hermsmeyer : Considering the Steelers — the Browns ’ next opponent — will probably sit their starters , that sounds about right , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ They could still teeter between the No .
2 and No .
3 seed depending on how Week 17 goes .
( It kind of depends on what happens with Buffalo . )
Salfino : I don ’ t see 2/3 seed as a big enough deal .
Sitting the starters is the right football move for the Steelers irrespective of injury risk because the team is feeling good about itself now .
Why risk undoing that ?
sara.ziegler : That ’ s an interesting take — let the good Week 16 vibes @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , maybe Patrick Mahomes needs another start for the Chiefs to feel better about his Week 16 line .
neil : Ugh , and just as we were writing about how consistently he doesn ’ t do that !
That was the latest into the first half it took for Kansas City to score under Mahomes in the regular season , according to ESPN ’ s Stats & Information Group .
And even after they picked things up some , it ended up being the second-fewest points the Chiefs have ever scored in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ has sort of been floundering all month .
He has not had an explosive game since November .
And of course the Chiefs extended their streak we mentioned last week with their seventh-straight win by 6 points or less .
Some of the others were deceptive in that the win was much stronger than the point differential .
This one was not .
neil : And yet , for all their close wins , K.C .
still has the second best pythagorean winning percentage in the league .
( Trailing … Baltimore !
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ Chiefs a 34 percent shot to win the Super Bowl , and Elo gives them a pretty sizable lead over the second place Saints ( 1766-1719 ) .
I think betting against the most talented QB the NFL has ever seen isn ’ t a great process .
sara.ziegler : It ’ s hard to get too worried about games that didn ’ t mean very much , but I think it would be a little troubling for Chiefs fans .
Salfino : You want to be playing your best or near your @ @ @ @ @ @ @ have been exceptions .
The Giants were not strong in December during their Super Bowl years .
But the Chiefs are going to have to find their offensive identity in January that ’ s been missing in December .
How likely that is , I have no idea .
joshua.hermsmeyer : Will K.C .
rest Mahomes this week ?
He got his first career start in a meaningless Week 17 game in 2017. neil : Seems likely , Josh .
Btw , we should also note that the Falcons are probably much better @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ ve been outscored by exactly 1 POINT this year .
Salfino : That was the perfect outcome for the Falcons : Play strong and lose and get that third-overall draft slot .
That point differential stat is amazing for Atlanta .
Has to be a record for a four-win team .
neil : Yeah , Mike , since 1970 , no team has finished a season with so low a winning percentage and a better points-per-game differential than Atlanta ( -0.1 ) has this year .
sara.ziegler : So let ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
The games with playoff implications weren ’ t quite as dramatic , but the Week 16 outcomes set up interesting scenarios for the final week .
The Packers , Saints and Seahawks all took care of business rather handily , and each of them could still win the first-round bye — though all the Packers need to do is beat the Bears .
Did Aaron Rodgers lock up the MVP title with Green Bay ’ s win Sunday night over Tennessee ?
Salfino : Rodgers is now the favorite .
I can @ @ @ @ @ @ @ has finished .
neil : What ’ s the biggest gap in years between MVPs ?
Rodgers would have a six-year gap , having won last in 2014 .
Salfino : I think Brady for biggest MVP gap ?
2010 to 2017. neil : Brady will always foil everyone on those longevity-based records .
sara.ziegler : Maybe Alvin Kamara should jump into the MVP race now , after his record-tying six-touchdown game .
If you were starting Kamara in a fantasy football matchup , don ’ t forget to thank the Vikings defense @ @ @ @ @ @ @ going to trigger Josh , Sara .
( I ’ m a hard no on RB MVPs . )
neil : He is the first player to crack 20 TDs from scrimmage this year !
Salfino : Kamara had six TDs all of last year !
Sean Payton really wanted to punish Mike Zimmer , who had had his number .
So he did .
sara.ziegler : It ’ s sort of wild to me that the Seahawks still have a shot at that first-round bye .
What a strange season Seattle has @ @ @ @ @ @ @ fans , I hate the way Seattle is playing now , turning Russell Wilson into a game manager .
But it ’ s working , and we ’ re going to have to live with it .
I think the Seahawks believe it ’ s making their defense better , and while that can ’ t be right , it ’ s hard to argue against .
neil : Pete Carroll was saying after the game that Seattle ’ s defense has turned a corner .
We ’ ll see .
They still @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in EPA ( including 30th vs. the pass 😬 ) .
But this was easily their best game of the year , I ’ ll give them that .
joshua.hermsmeyer : Winning with defense and 69 very nice rushing yards from Chris Carson is the Sneaky Pete formula for playoff success .
We ’ re stuck with it , I think .
sara.ziegler : They did look better .
I was very confused at how the Rams offense looked .
Salfino : The Rams offense has also turned the corner , into the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ And now Jared Goff has a broken thumb !
Salfino : This is the Golden Era for Goff haters .
neil : Goff has been straight-up bad for a while now , with a below-average QB Elo in four of his last five starts — including three very very below-average games .
It ’ s a big part of why the Rams have sputtered down the stretch of the season .
Salfino : Goff being out might be addition by subtraction .
neil : Except that nobody — including maybe Sean McVay — @ @ @ @ @ @ @ : Goff is a half-field read guy , and if those designs don ’ t work , he can ’ t do anything out of structure .
Hard to remember Goff making even one out-of-structure play .
Instead he does things like that pick that was thrown right to the defender — who was open , in fairness .
sara.ziegler : So the Rams , Cardinals and Bears are fighting for the final two wild-card spots .
Which two get in ?
joshua.hermsmeyer : I ’ d like the Bears to make it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and Chicago to re-sign Mitch Trubisky .
My other preference would be Arizona because I enjoy watching Kyler Murray play .
neil : The Rams are still probably a better bet than Arizona because Murray is banged up , that game is in L.A. , and the Rams ’ defense is great enough to win even with < checks notes > John Wolford at QB .
Salfino : How much worse can Wolford be ?
I ’ ll take the Rams — I hated how the Cardinals looked against the Niners .
Kliff @ @ @ @ @ @ @ head coach , quite frankly .
But he ’ s not going anywhere .
neil : Plus , the Rams can also lose and still make the playoffs if the Packers beat the Bears .
sara.ziegler : So the last contested spot in the playoffs is for the dreadful NFC East .
The Eagles are the only team that ’ s been eliminated !
Who do you all like there ?
Salfino : The Eagles were the only team I was interested in seeing in January from the East .
So it has @ @ @ @ @ @ @ can not be stopped .
The Giants have been in the tank since we apologized to GM Dave Gettleman .
( Or was that just me ? )
joshua.hermsmeyer : Joe Judge deserves the playoffs for how he rallied his team late against Baltimore to narrow the Ravens ’ margin of victory .
I think they ride that gritty momentum all the way to a first-round loss .
neil : I guess I ’ m taking Washington , just because they fully control their destiny .
The others need help .
And maybe @ @ @ @ @ @ @ he was close to playing Sunday , for whatever that was worth .
sara.ziegler : Darn , I was really hoping for more Taylor Heinicke .
Hey , he was better than Dwayne Haskins !
( Not a tough feat . )
joshua.hermsmeyer : Haskins has been unmasked .
He ’ s not a very good QB .
sara.ziegler : And now Haskins is no longer Football Team ’ s QB — Washington just waived him .
Salfino : Smith is going to win two Comeback Player of the Year awards this year @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
I root for him , of course , but it ’ s hard to see him excelling ( though the Eagles defense is so banged up ) .
Plus , Jalen Hurts ’ style of play might neutralize Washington ’ s strength in stopping the passing game .
So , I ’ m sticking with the Cowboys .
I want a 6-10 team in there .
neil : Records are meant to be broken !
And 6-10 for a playoff team is one broke-ass record .

It’s Almost Over, But There’s Still So Much Left
sara.ziegler (Sara Ziegler, sports editor): There’s only one week left in the NFL’s regular season, but so much is still up for grabs. Week 16 clarified a few things: The Chiefs nailed down the AFC’s first-round bye, the Buccaneers ended their postseason drought, and the Jaguars claimed the first pick in next year’s draft. But that’s about it. Remarkably, only seven of the 14 playoff spots have been claimed so far.
Five teams are battling for the remaining four spots in the AFC, three teams are duking it out for the last two NFC wild cards, and three of the four terrible NFC East teams are still alive, guaranteeing we’ll have one below-.500 team — no less than what we deserve this year.
So let’s take a spin through the games that got us to where we are right now. There were many dramatic finishes over the weekend, but we’ll start with Saturday’s wild Miami-Las Vegas matchup. I loved ESPN’s win probability chart for the end of that game:
Four lead changes in the final four minutes!
neil (Neil Paine, senior sportswriter): Who would have guessed that Dolphins-Raiders would redeem our day-after-Christmas football viewing? (Which kicked off with the Lions delivering one of the most listless performances we’ve seen in years and continued with the Cardinals not looking much more playoff-worthy on a “channel” nobody over 50 knew how to watch on.)
Salfino (Michael Salfino, FiveThirtyEight contributor): The last five minutes of the Dolphins-Raiders were pretty unbelievable. Has a team ever purposely not scored when the defense was letting them and then lost?
neil: The Falcons were looking at that and saying, “YOU SEE? It doesn’t ALWAYS work!”
joshua.hermsmeyer (Josh Hermsmeyer, NFL analyst): Last week, we talked a little about not coddling QBs and making them compete. Dolphins head coach Brian Flores has taken that to another level by tapping into FitzMagic and benching Tua Tagovailoa whenever the mood strikes him. I love it.
Salfino: I think this is really a bad harbinger for Tua. But what Ryan Fitzpatrick did after Tua was floundering, with less than 100 passing yards, was incredible. And it was historic when you consider that Fitz put up those yards in less than a quarter and factoring in what the starter did.
Ryan Fitzpatrick passed for 182 yards in the 4th quarter while coming off the bench. That's the most 4th quarter passing yards in a win by a non-starting QB since 2005. Sage Rosenfels passed for 202 yards in the 4th quarter of a 24-23 win over the Bills – also for the Dolphins. — ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) December 27, 2020
joshua.hermsmeyer: Whenever you can be historic like Sage Rosenfels, you just have to do it.
neil: (I mean, he was the Tom Brady of the preseason…)
sara.ziegler: There will be no Sage defamation in this chat.
Salfino:
Rosenmagic and Fitzmagic are very similar QBs and people. https://t.co/pT0ubAem1p — Sage Rosenfels (@SageRosenfels18) December 28, 2020
neil: We’ve talked all season about the tug-of-war between Miami winning now — where Fitz gives them the best chance — and setting Tua up to succeed later (but maybe at the expense of this year). Flores is now taking that have-our-cake-and-eat-it-too mentality to the absolute extreme.
sara.ziegler: I kinda love the starter-closer setup! It’s an interesting way to change looks on a defense, and if the quarterbacks are OK with it, why not?
Salfino: If you have a starter/closer, you don’t have a “starter.”
neil: Maybe Tua is the “opener.”
joshua.hermsmeyer: Mike trotting out the “if you have two QBs you don’t have one” line on this, my Monday.
Salfino: A variation, yes. No less true than the original.
neil: It is kind of funny because that’s how Tua made his first big splash: As the “closer” for Jalen Hurts in the national title game with Alabama.
Now he knows how Hurts felt!
Salfino: However it’s happening, the Dolphins are not good, but they keep winning.
neil: They are good on defense! They’re second in defensive SRS and seventh in schedule-adjusted expected points added (EPA) per game.
Salfino: The Dolphins defense is bad at net yards per attempt (ninth worst) but great at opposing yards per point. I ignore that stat, but I wonder if it’s part of the ratings Neil cited.
neil: Yeah, they don’t allow many TDs and get a lot of turnovers, Mike.
joshua.hermsmeyer: The Dolphins can lose to the Bills this week and still make the playoffs. If they lose and the Colts lose again, for instance, we can still see some playoff FinsMagic.
Salfino: But maybe not FitzMagic. Wouldn’t you guys start Fitz now? What are we playing around for now after Christmas?
neil: With a team built on defensive strength, maybe it does make sense to “open” with a game manager type at QB and try to ride it out w/ the D … but have Fitzy around in case you really need to make a comeback late.
sara.ziegler: IDK, I keep thinking of times when a starter has gotten hurt and a backup has come in and confused a defense. Isn’t this just putting that into action? If a team doesn’t plan to face Fitzpatrick, he could hurt them at the end of a game, right?
joshua.hermsmeyer: I think so, Sara. Plus, a rookie QB is probably the perfect situation to try this QB by committee approach. However, the Mikes of the world will have their knives out pretty quickly when they lose using the approach.
Salfino: Is it that Fitzpatrick is different or just better? Is being better the thing that’s making him different?
neil: A charitable comparison (for Tua) would say he is much lower variance. Fitzy is higher risk, higher reward — higher touchdown percentage, higher yards per attempt, much higher interception percentage. So they do offer different profiles.
Salfino: I actually can see the wisdom of playing Tua to find out more about him because the Dolphins are not good enough to win anything. I just think that this is a bad message to send to the team, or at least one you have to worry about selling to the team.
sara.ziegler: So let’s move on to the Colts-Steelers game, which started with the Steelers continuing their very bad look of the past few games and ended in a Pittsburgh rally and Indianapolis collapse. What can we make out of that one?
Salfino: Man, I was writing Ben Roethlisberger’s NFL obit, and he made me look really dumb. He had been terrible for most of the season and certainly the past six weeks. Where did that come from?
I mean, look at these Roethlisberger game logs and then realize he was on his way to another day with a sub-6.0 yards per attempt before he somehow flipped a switch back to 2018.
joshua.hermsmeyer: I credit the Steelers defense with completely shifting the momentum. Prove me wrong.
Salfino: I thought the Steelers defense would be huge in the game given that the Colts were so depleted on the offensive line with COVID-19/injuries. But I really thought a 24-7 deficit for THIS version of Roethlisberger and Pittsburgh’s heretofore pop-gun passing game was too big a hill to climb.
neil: The Colts’ last five drives of that game: punt, punt, punt, INT, turnover on downs. Pretty good defensive response.
sara.ziegler: A Philip Rivers pick seemed preordained, tbh.
joshua.hermsmeyer: I’m shocked the Steelers pulled off a win with just 20 yards rushing, but sometimes you have to go against the winning formula.
neil: LOL
Salfino: It was the first 17-point (or more) second-half comeback win in Roethlisberger’s career.
sara.ziegler: That’s pretty surprising!
joshua.hermsmeyer: It was Mike Tomlin’s first second-half comeback of 17 points or more as well. Nice way to clinch the division for a great coach.
sara.ziegler: The team the Steelers could have lost the division to had an interesting day as well.
neil: “interesting”
sara.ziegler: The Browns followed in the Rams’ footsteps and could not overcome the mighty Jets!
Salfino: Oh, the Jets. Well, the Browns were in a weird spot with no receiving corps due to COVID-19. The Jets were without their best player on defense. Still I expected the Browns to have trouble running against the Jets, and they did. That was the story of this game.
What a weird ending for the Jets — the first team with multiple wins in a season against teams with at least nine more wins than they had.
neil: In related news, neither the Rams nor the Browns are sure things to make the playoffs anymore.
sara.ziegler: That’s what happens when you lose to the Jets…
Salfino: Are the Browns in with a win, Neil? The Rams need help though, right?
neil: Both teams are in with wins.
Salfino: So in a sense, their losses to the Jets don’t hurt them … but they really hurt the Jets.
joshua.hermsmeyer: Considering the Steelers — the Browns’ next opponent — will probably sit their starters, that sounds about right, Mike.
neil: Will they? They could still teeter between the No. 2 and No. 3 seed depending on how Week 17 goes. (It kind of depends on what happens with Buffalo.)
Salfino: I don’t see 2/3 seed as a big enough deal. Sitting the starters is the right football move for the Steelers irrespective of injury risk because the team is feeling good about itself now. Why risk undoing that?
sara.ziegler: That’s an interesting take — let the good Week 16 vibes just carry over.
By that approach, maybe Patrick Mahomes needs another start for the Chiefs to feel better about his Week 16 line.
joshua.hermsmeyer: Mahomes finally had a bad game!
neil: Ugh, and just as we were writing about how consistently he doesn’t do that!
That was the latest into the first half it took for Kansas City to score under Mahomes in the regular season, according to ESPN’s Stats & Information Group. And even after they picked things up some, it ended up being the second-fewest points the Chiefs have ever scored in a Mahomes start.
Salfino: Mahomes has sort of been floundering all month. He has not had an explosive game since November. And of course the Chiefs extended their streak we mentioned last week with their seventh-straight win by 6 points or less. Some of the others were deceptive in that the win was much stronger than the point differential. This one was not.
neil: And yet, for all their close wins, K.C. still has the second best pythagorean winning percentage in the league. (Trailing … Baltimore!)
joshua.hermsmeyer: We still give the Chiefs a 34 percent shot to win the Super Bowl, and Elo gives them a pretty sizable lead over the second place Saints (1766-1719). I think betting against the most talented QB the NFL has ever seen isn’t a great process.
sara.ziegler: It’s hard to get too worried about games that didn’t mean very much, but I think it would be a little troubling for Chiefs fans.
Salfino: You want to be playing your best or near your best football now, generally. There have been exceptions. The Giants were not strong in December during their Super Bowl years. But the Chiefs are going to have to find their offensive identity in January that’s been missing in December. How likely that is, I have no idea.
joshua.hermsmeyer: Will K.C. rest Mahomes this week? He got his first career start in a meaningless Week 17 game in 2017.
neil: Seems likely, Josh. Btw, we should also note that the Falcons are probably much better than their 4-11 record indicates. They’ve been outscored by exactly 1 POINT this year.
Salfino: That was the perfect outcome for the Falcons: Play strong and lose and get that third-overall draft slot.
That point differential stat is amazing for Atlanta. Has to be a record for a four-win team.
neil: Yeah, Mike, since 1970, no team has finished a season with so low a winning percentage and a better points-per-game differential than Atlanta (-0.1) has this year.
sara.ziegler: So let’s look at the rest of the NFC. The games with playoff implications weren’t quite as dramatic, but the Week 16 outcomes set up interesting scenarios for the final week. The Packers, Saints and Seahawks all took care of business rather handily, and each of them could still win the first-round bye — though all the Packers need to do is beat the Bears. Did Aaron Rodgers lock up the MVP title with Green Bay’s win Sunday night over Tennessee?
Salfino: Rodgers is now the favorite. I can’t fight it with how Mahomes has finished.
neil: What’s the biggest gap in years between MVPs? Rodgers would have a six-year gap, having won last in 2014.
Salfino: I think Brady for biggest MVP gap? 2010 to 2017.
neil: Brady will always foil everyone on those longevity-based records.
Salfino: Jim Brown, also: 1958 to 1965. Excellent MVP trivia!
sara.ziegler: Maybe Alvin Kamara should jump into the MVP race now, after his record-tying six-touchdown game.
If you were starting Kamara in a fantasy football matchup, don’t forget to thank the Vikings defense. 🙄
Salfino: You’re going to trigger Josh, Sara. (I’m a hard no on RB MVPs.)
neil: He is the first player to crack 20 TDs from scrimmage this year!
Salfino: Kamara had six TDs all of last year!
Sean Payton really wanted to punish Mike Zimmer, who had had his number. So he did.
sara.ziegler: It’s sort of wild to me that the Seahawks still have a shot at that first-round bye. What a strange season Seattle has had.
Salfino: Speaking for football fans, I hate the way Seattle is playing now, turning Russell Wilson into a game manager. But it’s working, and we’re going to have to live with it. I think the Seahawks believe it’s making their defense better, and while that can’t be right, it’s hard to argue against.
neil: Pete Carroll was saying after the game that Seattle’s defense has turned a corner. We’ll see. They still rank 17th in defensive SRS and 21st in EPA (including 30th vs. the pass 😬). But this was easily their best game of the year, I’ll give them that.
joshua.hermsmeyer: Winning with defense and 69 very nice rushing yards from Chris Carson is the Sneaky Pete formula for playoff success. We’re stuck with it, I think.
sara.ziegler: They did look better. I was very confused at how the Rams offense looked.
Salfino: The Rams offense has also turned the corner, into the bad part of town.
sara.ziegler: And now Jared Goff has a broken thumb!
Salfino: This is the Golden Era for Goff haters.
neil: Goff has been straight-up bad for a while now, with a below-average QB Elo in four of his last five starts — including three very very below-average games. It’s a big part of why the Rams have sputtered down the stretch of the season.
Salfino: Goff being out might be addition by subtraction.
neil: Except that nobody — including maybe Sean McVay — has heard of their backup.
Salfino: Goff is a half-field read guy, and if those designs don’t work, he can’t do anything out of structure. Hard to remember Goff making even one out-of-structure play. Instead he does things like that pick that was thrown right to the defender — who was open, in fairness.
sara.ziegler: So the Rams, Cardinals and Bears are fighting for the final two wild-card spots. Which two get in?
joshua.hermsmeyer: I’d like the Bears to make it, just to watch the world burn and Chicago to re-sign Mitch Trubisky. My other preference would be Arizona because I enjoy watching Kyler Murray play.
neil: The Rams are still probably a better bet than Arizona because Murray is banged up, that game is in L.A., and the Rams’ defense is great enough to win even with John Wolford at QB.
Salfino: How much worse can Wolford be? I’ll take the Rams — I hated how the Cardinals looked against the Niners. Kliff Kingsbury looks like a bust as a head coach, quite frankly. But he’s not going anywhere.
neil: Plus, the Rams can also lose and still make the playoffs if the Packers beat the Bears.
sara.ziegler: So the last contested spot in the playoffs is for the dreadful NFC East. The Eagles are the only team that’s been eliminated! Who do you all like there?
“Like” being a strong word.
Salfino: The Eagles were the only team I was interested in seeing in January from the East. So it has to be the Cowboys. Andy Dalton cannot be stopped.
The Giants have been in the tank since we apologized to GM Dave Gettleman. (Or was that just me?)
joshua.hermsmeyer: Joe Judge deserves the playoffs for how he rallied his team late against Baltimore to narrow the Ravens’ margin of victory. I think they ride that gritty momentum all the way to a first-round loss.
sara.ziegler: 🤣
neil: I guess I’m taking Washington, just because they fully control their destiny. The others need help. And maybe Alex Smith will start!
Sounded like he was close to playing Sunday, for whatever that was worth.
sara.ziegler: Darn, I was really hoping for more Taylor Heinicke.
neil: LOL
Hey, he was better than Dwayne Haskins! (Not a tough feat.)
joshua.hermsmeyer: Haskins has been unmasked. He’s not a very good QB.
sara.ziegler: And now Haskins is no longer Football Team’s QB — Washington just waived him.
neil: They’ve seen enough.
Salfino: Smith is going to win two Comeback Player of the Year awards this year if he leads Washington to the playoffs. I root for him, of course, but it’s hard to see him excelling (though the Eagles defense is so banged up). Plus, Jalen Hurts’ style of play might neutralize Washington’s strength in stopping the passing game.
So, I’m sticking with the Cowboys.
sara.ziegler: Give me the Giants.
I want a 6-10 team in there.
neil: Records are meant to be broken!
And 6-10 for a playoff team is one broke-ass record.
Salfino: Gettleman: Lifetime contract.
Check out our latest NFL predictions.