fivethirthyeight--2020-11-03--What’s It Like To Vote At A Stadium?

What’s It Like To Vote At A Stadium?

It ’ s a familiar sight in Boston in mid-October : a line of people , many decked out in Red Sox gear , stretched down Jersey Street , waiting to pass through Gate A and enter historic Fenway Park .
But this year , they weren ’ t going to see a baseball game .
They were going to vote .
The Red Sox were one of dozens of sports teams to offer up their home stadiums as polling places for this election .
With the coronavirus pandemic forcing polling sites to relocate from cramped spaces like fire stations @ @ @ @ @ @ @ sports facilities have emerged as excellent alternatives ( if not without controversy in some cases ) .
Their massive size means they can process tons of voters at once and still leave space for social distancing , and some of them are even outdoors , which lowers the risk of transmitting the virus .
Plus , they ’ re just a cool place to vote — especially for fans who haven ’ t been able to see their favorite teams in person this year .
The demand to vote at Fenway was sky-high @ @ @ @ @ @ @ voting , a Red Sox staffer said the line wrapped around nearly the entire park , from Jersey Street to Van Ness Street to Ipswich Street to Lansdowne Street , and even later in the day , voters were waiting 45 minutes to get in .
Nevertheless , one family of Red Sox season ticket holders told me how happy they were just to have a chance to visit Fenway this year .
And voter Kate McElhiney said she went out of her way to vote at Fenway , which is on the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ home .
McElhiney told me she wanted to vote at Fenway partly because of the novelty , but also partly because she considered the cavernous , well-ventilated concourse the safest environment in which to vote .
While the pandemic may have created the demand for stadium polling places , it was the summer ’ s racial-justice demonstrations that inspired teams to supply them .
As Black Lives Matter protests swept the country in early June , the Atlanta Hawks were the first team in any league to volunteer their home court , State @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
“ Unfortunately — but fortunately for early voting — our facility was not hosting any games , ” Amy Phuong , the Hawks ’ vice president of government relations , told FiveThirtyEight .
“ So [ CEO Steve Koonin ] had an idea : With everyone out there lending their voices , what better way to lend our voice ?
” Bekah Salwasser , executive director of the Red Sox Foundation , agreed with that sentiment .
“ We know people around the country — for many months , through protests or @ @ @ @ @ @ @ said .
“ And we believe that one of the best ways to make definitive change as an individual and as a civilian in this country is by voting.
” Player activism played a huge role , especially in basketball .
In late August , NBA players ( led by the Milwaukee Bucks ) staged a wildcat strike in protest of the police shooting of Jacob Blake , and the movement was joined by players in the WNBA , MLB , MLS and NHL .
The NBA strike ended two days later after @ @ @ @ @ @ @ agreed to convert its arenas into polling places wherever possible , leading to several more facilities being approved as polling sites .
In total , at least 39 major-league sports facilities are being used as voting locations this fall — including 31 that are open for voting today , Election Day .
The list includes 11 NHL arenas , 10 NFL stadiums , five MLB ballparks and five WNBA arenas .
But the NBA leads the way , with 17 of its 28 domestic arenas converted into polling places .
While that falls @ @ @ @ @ @ @ strike of full participation , some other arenas are encouraging civic participation or assisting election officials in other ways .
The Oklahoma City Thunder held voter-registration drives inside the Chesapeake Energy Arena ; election workers were trained at the Detroit Pistons ’ Little Caesars Arena ; ballots will be counted inside the Memphis Grizzlies ’ FedExForum .
And while the Chase Center in San Francisco isn ’ t a polling place , other Golden State Warriors facilities are , and there is a ballot drop-off location outside the Chase Center itself .
Even @ @ @ @ @ @ @ could .
Ultimately , it ’ s not up to teams to decide whether their arenas become polling places — it ’ s up to election authorities .
( According to Salwasser and Phuong , Fenway and State Farm Arena both had to meet certain criteria before they were approved as polling places ; for instance , the Boston Election Department conducted a site visit of Fenway . )
And sometimes , a local government declined a team ’ s offers — much to the chagrin of the team .
For example , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Miami-Dade County rejected their invitation to make AmericanAirlines Arena an early-voting site , instead opting for a smaller space at a nearby museum .
The Miami Herald later revealed that county Mayor Carlos Gimenez , the Republican candidate for Florida ’ s 26th Congressional District , intervened to prevent election officials from choosing the arena .
And in Milwaukee , the Bucks ’ Fiserv Forum and the Brewers ’ Miller Park had already been announced as early-voting locations when the Milwaukee Election Commission abruptly dropped those plans , citing concerns that votes there @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , a Bucks senior vice president , told FiveThirtyEight that the team was disappointed by the decision and had been looking forward to giving people in Milwaukee , especially people of color , an accessible place to vote .
But “ we also know it was the right decision , ” Lasry said .
“ We want there to be no doubt every ballot cast is legitimate and don ’ t want anyone ’ s voices to be taken away.
” And the team was still able to chip in by hosting voter-registration @ @ @ @ @ @ @ serving as polling places , voters are being treated to a voting experience like no other .
At State Farm Arena , the Hawks set up three distinct voting areas , including one where voters entered through the giant “ Atlanta ” letters , were checked in amid the “ Hawk Walk ” concessions area and voted at machines set up throughout the 100-level concourse and arena floor .
Altogether , the arena housed more than 300 voting machines ; according to Phuong , that ’ s more than any other early-voting location @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the entire country .
She added that nearly 300 Hawks employees were helping out by filling roles as varied as greeting voters and serving as poll workers alongside county employees .
At Fenway , almost 100 Red Sox front-office staffers and day-of-game workers volunteered to help manage the crowds , while City of Boston poll workers handled the actual check-in and check-out processes .
First , just inside Gate A , voters confirmed with a poll worker that they were registered in Boston .
Then it was a short walk up a ramp @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 29-31 , where a second check-in desk sat ready to hand the voter one of 37 different ballots , depending on where in Boston they lived and what races they were eligible to vote in .
Voters marked their ballots at booths set up in front of a mural of Ted Williams and a Samuel Adams bar .
Then , after they dropped them into a ballot-collection box in front of a concession stand that normally sells soft serve ice cream , came the cherry on top : stickers reading , “ I @ @ @ @ @ @ @ chance to climb up into the grandstand and see the field .

It’s a familiar sight in Boston in mid-October: a line of people, many decked out in Red Sox gear, stretched down Jersey Street, waiting to pass through Gate A and enter historic Fenway Park. But this year, they weren’t going to see a baseball game. They were going to vote.
The Red Sox were one of dozens of sports teams to offer up their home stadiums as polling places for this election. With the coronavirus pandemic forcing polling sites to relocate from cramped spaces like fire stations or high-risk locations like nursing homes, sports facilities have emerged as excellent alternatives (if not without controversy in some cases). Their massive size means they can process tons of voters at once and still leave space for social distancing, and some of them are even outdoors, which lowers the risk of transmitting the virus.
Plus, they’re just a cool place to vote — especially for fans who haven’t been able to see their favorite teams in person this year. The demand to vote at Fenway was sky-high; on the first morning of early voting, a Red Sox staffer said the line wrapped around nearly the entire park, from Jersey Street to Van Ness Street to Ipswich Street to Lansdowne Street, and even later in the day, voters were waiting 45 minutes to get in. Nevertheless, one family of Red Sox season ticket holders told me how happy they were just to have a chance to visit Fenway this year. And voter Kate McElhiney said she went out of her way to vote at Fenway, which is on the other side of town from her Dorchester home. McElhiney told me she wanted to vote at Fenway partly because of the novelty, but also partly because she considered the cavernous, well-ventilated concourse the safest environment in which to vote.
While the pandemic may have created the demand for stadium polling places, it was the summer’s racial-justice demonstrations that inspired teams to supply them. As Black Lives Matter protests swept the country in early June, the Atlanta Hawks were the first team in any league to volunteer their home court, State Farm Arena, as a polling place. “Unfortunately — but fortunately for early voting — our facility was not hosting any games,” Amy Phuong, the Hawks’ vice president of government relations, told FiveThirtyEight. “So [CEO Steve Koonin] had an idea: With everyone out there lending their voices, what better way to lend our voice?”
Bekah Salwasser, executive director of the Red Sox Foundation, agreed with that sentiment. “We know people around the country — for many months, through protests or demonstrations — want change,” she said. “And we believe that one of the best ways to make definitive change as an individual and as a civilian in this country is by voting.”
Player activism played a huge role, especially in basketball. In late August, NBA players (led by the Milwaukee Bucks) staged a wildcat strike in protest of the police shooting of Jacob Blake, and the movement was joined by players in the WNBA, MLB, MLS and NHL. The NBA strike ended two days later after, among other things, the league agreed to convert its arenas into polling places wherever possible, leading to several more facilities being approved as polling sites.
In total, at least 39 major-league sports facilities are being used as voting locations this fall — including 31 that are open for voting today, Election Day. The list includes 11 NHL arenas, 10 NFL stadiums, five MLB ballparks and five WNBA arenas.
You can vote at a sports arena in many cities MLB, NBA, NFL, NHL and WNBA stadiums used as polling places for the 2020 election Open For… Venue Team Early Voting Election Day Amalie Arena Tampa Bay Lightning ✓ American Airlines Center Dallas Mavericks, Stars ✓ ✓ Amway Center Orlando Magic ✓ Arizona Veterans Memorial Coliseum Phoenix Mercury ✓ ✓ Arrowhead Stadium Kansas City Chiefs ✓ AT&T Center San Antonio Spurs ✓ ✓ Ball Arena Denver Nuggets, Colorado Avalanche ✓ ✓ Bank of America Stadium Carolina Panthers ✓ Bankers Life Fieldhouse Indiana Pacers, Fever ✓ Barclays Center Brooklyn Nets, New York Liberty ✓ ✓ Capital One Arena Washington Wizards, Capitals ✓ ✓ CenturyLink Field Seattle Seahawks ✓ ✓ Dodger Stadium Los Angeles Dodgers ✓ ✓ Entertainment and Sports Arena Washington Mystics ✓ ✓ FedEx Field Washington Football Team ✓ Fenway Park Boston Red Sox ✓ Gila River Arena Arizona Coyotes ✓ ✓ Golden 1 Center Sacramento Kings ✓ ✓ Honda Center Anaheim Ducks ✓ ✓ Lambeau Field Green Bay Packers ✓ Levi’s Stadium San Francisco 49ers ✓ ✓ Lucas Oil Stadium Indianapolis Colts ✓ ✓ Madison Square Garden New York Knicks, Rangers ✓ ✓ Nationals Park Washington Nationals ✓ ✓ NRG Stadium Houston Texans ✓ ✓ Oakland Coliseum Oakland Athletics ✓ ✓ Oriole Park at Camden Yards Baltimore Orioles ✓ ✓ PPG Paints Arena Pittsburgh Penguins ✓ Prudential Center New Jersey Devils ✓ Raymond James Stadium Tampa Bay Buccaneers ✓ Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse Cleveland Cavaliers ✓ Smoothie King Center New Orleans Pelicans ✓ SoFi Stadium Los Angeles Rams, Chargers ✓ ✓ Spectrum Center Charlotte Hornets ✓ Staples Center Los Angeles Lakers, Clippers, Kings, Sparks ✓ ✓ State Farm Arena Atlanta Hawks ✓ Toyota Center Houston Rockets ✓ ✓ United Center Chicago Bulls, Blackhawks ✓ Vivint Smart Home Arena Utah Jazz ✓ Sources: News reports, team websites
But the NBA leads the way, with 17 of its 28 domestic arenas converted into polling places. While that falls short of the goal set after the strike of full participation, some other arenas are encouraging civic participation or assisting election officials in other ways. The Oklahoma City Thunder held voter-registration drives inside the Chesapeake Energy Arena; election workers were trained at the Detroit Pistons’ Little Caesars Arena; ballots will be counted inside the Memphis Grizzlies’ FedExForum. And while the Chase Center in San Francisco isn’t a polling place, other Golden State Warriors facilities are, and there is a ballot drop-off location outside the Chase Center itself.
Even more venues would be participating if they could. Ultimately, it’s not up to teams to decide whether their arenas become polling places — it’s up to election authorities. (According to Salwasser and Phuong, Fenway and State Farm Arena both had to meet certain criteria before they were approved as polling places; for instance, the Boston Election Department conducted a site visit of Fenway.) And sometimes, a local government declined a team’s offers — much to the chagrin of the team. For example, the Miami Heat were not pleased when Miami-Dade County rejected their invitation to make AmericanAirlines Arena an early-voting site, instead opting for a smaller space at a nearby museum. The Miami Herald later revealed that county Mayor Carlos Gimenez, the Republican candidate for Florida’s 26th Congressional District, intervened to prevent election officials from choosing the arena.
And in Milwaukee, the Bucks’ Fiserv Forum and the Brewers’ Miller Park had already been announced as early-voting locations when the Milwaukee Election Commission abruptly dropped those plans, citing concerns that votes there could be legally challenged. Alex Lasry, a Bucks senior vice president, told FiveThirtyEight that the team was disappointed by the decision and had been looking forward to giving people in Milwaukee, especially people of color, an accessible place to vote. But “we also know it was the right decision,” Lasry said. “We want there to be no doubt every ballot cast is legitimate and don’t want anyone’s voices to be taken away.” And the team was still able to chip in by hosting voter-registration drives.
At the stadiums that are serving as polling places, voters are being treated to a voting experience like no other. At State Farm Arena, the Hawks set up three distinct voting areas, including one where voters entered through the giant “Atlanta” letters, were checked in amid the “Hawk Walk” concessions area and voted at machines set up throughout the 100-level concourse and arena floor. Altogether, the arena housed more than 300 voting machines; according to Phuong, that’s more than any other early-voting location in Georgia and, she believes, the entire country. She added that nearly 300 Hawks employees were helping out by filling roles as varied as greeting voters and serving as poll workers alongside county employees.
At Fenway, almost 100 Red Sox front-office staffers and day-of-game workers volunteered to help manage the crowds, while City of Boston poll workers handled the actual check-in and check-out processes. First, just inside Gate A, voters confirmed with a poll worker that they were registered in Boston. Then it was a short walk up a ramp to the third-base concourse below grandstand sections 29-31, where a second check-in desk sat ready to hand the voter one of 37 different ballots, depending on where in Boston they lived and what races they were eligible to vote in.
Voters marked their ballots at booths set up in front of a mural of Ted Williams and a Samuel Adams bar. Then, after they dropped them into a ballot-collection box in front of a concession stand that normally sells soft serve ice cream, came the cherry on top: stickers reading, “I voted at Fenway Park” and a chance to climb up into the grandstand and see the field.
Santul Nerkar contributed research.
What the election map will look like if there’s a 2016-sized polling error
CORRECTION (Nov. 5, 2020, 10:30 a.m.): The table in this article listed Lucas Oil Stadium as open for voting on Election Day but failed to note its status as an early-voting location. County election officials decided on Oct. 30 to allow voting at the Indianapolis Colts’ stadium starting Oct. 31.


fivethirthyeight--2020-11-03--Be Wary Of Exit Polls This Year (Well, And All Years)

A pandemic and the increase in mail-in voting have made exit polls even less reliable this year .
Podcast host @ @ @ @ @ editor Laura Bronner and elections analyst Nathaniel Rakich about how exit polls will be conducted @ @ @ @ @ them .

Be Wary Of Exit Polls This Year (Well, And All Years)
A pandemic and the increase in mail-in voting have made exit polls even less reliable this year. Podcast host Galen Druke chats with quantitative editor Laura Bronner and elections analyst Nathaniel Rakich about how exit polls will be conducted and what to make of them.


fivethirthyeight--2020-11-03--Final Forecast: Democrats Are Clear Favorites To Maintain Control Of The House

In 2018 , Democrats took back the House thanks to a blue wave that ran right through America ’ s suburbs .
Now the question is , can they hold onto that majority ?
The answer is probably yes , as Democrats are clear favorites , according to the final version of FiveThirtyEight ’ s House forecast , which gives them a 97 in 100 chance of winning control of the House .
Overall , the House contest appears to have significantly less drama than either the race for the presidency or the Senate , both of which are far @ @ @ @ @ @ @ seats to the GOP ’ s 201 seats , with retiring Libertarian Rep. Justin Amash the lone third-party member in the chamber .
So to win back the House , Republicans need a net gain of 17 seats to achieve a majority of 218 , which is one reason why their odds of taking back the chamber are so low ( 3 in 100 ) .
That ’ s a lot of House seats in a presidential cycle , as a party has only gained that many twice in the past 10 presidential @ @ @ @ @ @ @ reason why Democrats are favored to keep control of the House — as well as maybe win the White House and even the Senate — is that the electoral environment looks quite good for their party .
If we look at the polling average from our congressional generic ballot tracker , which includes all polls that ask respondents whether they plan to vote for the Democrat or Republican in their local congressional race , Democrats lead by 7.3 percentage points .
That margin speaks to a strong national environment for Democrats and isn @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 8.7-point edge Democrats had heading into the 2018 midterm elections .
And as the chart below shows , this lead hasn ’ t fluctuated much over the past year .
What this has meant practically is that the overall electoral environment has boosted the chances of House Democrats , but most notably it ’ s given a leg up to those who captured Republican seats in 2018 and are now seeking reelection .
Of the 41 Democrats who flipped seats in 2018 — not counting one who resigned and another who switched parties @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in 4 shot of holding onto their seat .
This despite the fact that President Trump carried 20 of those 41 seats when he won in 2016 .
These conditions , along with strong Democratic fundraising and mediocre Republican candidate recruitment in many key races , have left a pretty short list of Democratic incumbents who are in serious danger of defeat , as the table below shows .
In other words , these seemingly more competitive seats are , for the most part , not necessarily that close , which limits the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ majority .
Nevertheless , a handful of Democratic incumbents are in jeopardy of losing .
In fact , the most vulnerable incumbent from either party is Democratic Rep. Collin Peterson of Minnesota , who has about a 1 in 5 chance of winning reelection in a seat that Trump won by 31 points four years ago , according to Daily Kos Elections .
Beyond Peterson , five other Democrats fall into the “ toss-up ” range in our forecast : Reps. Kendra Horn of Oklahoma , TJ Cox of California , Max Rose @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of New Mexico and Ben McAdams of Utah .
Of that quintet , Cox is the outlier because he ’ s the only one running in a seat that is pretty Democratic-leaning at the presidential level — Trump lost it by 16 points in 2016 — whereas the others all hold seats Trump won by at least 7 points .
But Cox ’ s seat is probably one of the better candidate recruitment situations for the GOP , as ex-Rep. David Valadao , who Cox defeated by less than 1 point in 2018 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Aside from the strength of their incumbents , Democrats have also benefited from the sheer number of Republican retirements this year .
Not to mention , some GOP primary challenges that resulted in some incumbents losing renomination .
Although the incumbency advantage is not nearly as strong as it once was , open seats tend to be harder for the incumbent party to retain , and the disproportionate number of Republican exits from the House has left some vulnerable turf for them to defend .
As the table below shows , this means @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 17 open seats where neither party is a safe bet .
While Democrats are only outright favorites in three GOP-held seats , that trio account for half of the six seats that Hillary Clinton carried in 2016 that Republicans still control ( GOP incumbents are running in the other three ) .
Two are near-certain Democratic pickups thanks to North Carolina ’ s court-ordered redistricting , which made those seats much more Democratic-leaning and precipitated the retirements of two Republican incumbents .
And Republican Rep. Will Hurd ’ s retirement in Texas ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ lost by 3 points in 2016 , has given Democratic nominee Gina Ortiz Jones a clear edge there .
Additionally , Democrats are roughly even bets to win a number of other open Republican-held districts , including suburban seats like Indiana ’ s 5th Congressional District around Indianapolis and New York ’ s 2nd Congressional District on Long Island , both left open by retirements .
They also have a shot at winning GOP-controlled seats where the incumbent lost renomination , such as Virginia ’ s 5th Congressional District and Colorado ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ more , only one Democratic-held open seat — Iowa ’ s 2nd Congressional District — is at all in play , and the Democrats have nearly a 9 in 10 chance of keeping it .
Lastly , Democrats are also in an enviable position because they stand to defeat some Republican incumbents in competitive contests , too .
Whereas only 13 Democratic incumbents seeking reelection have less than a 3 in 4 chance of winning reelection , slightly more Republicans — 14 — are in the same position .
Still , the one @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of their incumbents is a clear underdog , as the table below shows .
So most of these races might be a bit of a reach for Democrats hoping to pad their margins .
GOP Rep. Mike Garcia , who won a special election earlier this year to fill a vacancy in California ’ s 25th Congressional District , heads into the election as the most at-risk Republican incumbent .
But along with Garcia are four others in toss-up contests : Reps. Jeff Van Drew of New Jersey , Scott Perry of Pennsylvania @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Bacon of Nebraska .
Van Drew won as a Democrat in 2018 but switched parties after voting against impeaching Trump , probably thinking he ’ d have an easier time as a Republican in a district that backed Trump by about 5 points in 2016 , but the race is super close and he ’ s been outraised by Democrat Amy Kennedy — yes , part of that Kennedy family .
Bacon , meanwhile , is defending a seat that could also matter a great deal in the presidential race because Nebraska apportions @ @ @ @ @ @ @ congressional districts , and its 2nd Congressional District is somewhat more likely to vote for Biden than Trump .
Bottom line : Democrats have benefited from an overall Democratic-leaning national environment , in addition to a number of strong Democratic incumbents , a sizable number of competitive Republican-held open seats and some vulnerable GOP officeholders .
There ’ s no fuzziness here in what our forecast says : Democrats are in a very strong position to maintain control of the House .
We ’ ll see how it plays out once the votes @ @ @ @ @ @ @ would be one of the more unsurprising outcomes in this election .

In 2018, Democrats took back the House thanks to a blue wave that ran right through America’s suburbs. Now the question is, can they hold onto that majority?
The answer is probably yes, as Democrats are clear favorites, according to the final version of FiveThirtyEight’s House forecast, which gives them a 97 in 100 chance of winning control of the House.
Overall, the House contest appears to have significantly less drama than either the race for the presidency or the Senate, both of which are far more competitive. Democrats currently control 233 seats to the GOP’s 201 seats, with retiring Libertarian Rep. Justin Amash the lone third-party member in the chamber. So to win back the House, Republicans need a net gain of 17 seats to achieve a majority of 218, which is one reason why their odds of taking back the chamber are so low (3 in 100). That’s a lot of House seats in a presidential cycle, as a party has only gained that many twice in the past 10 presidential elections.
Be Wary Of Exit Polls This Year (Well, And All Years) | FiveThirtyEight
But perhaps the even bigger reason why Democrats are favored to keep control of the House — as well as maybe win the White House and even the Senate — is that the electoral environment looks quite good for their party. If we look at the polling average from our congressional generic ballot tracker, which includes all polls that ask respondents whether they plan to vote for the Democrat or Republican in their local congressional race, Democrats lead by 7.3 percentage points. That margin speaks to a strong national environment for Democrats and isn’t that far off from the 8.7-point edge Democrats had heading into the 2018 midterm elections. And as the chart below shows, this lead hasn’t fluctuated much over the past year.
What this has meant practically is that the overall electoral environment has boosted the chances of House Democrats, but most notably it’s given a leg up to those who captured Republican seats in 2018 and are now seeking reelection. Of the 41 Democrats who flipped seats in 2018 — not counting one who resigned and another who switched parties — 30 have at least a 3 in 4 shot of holding onto their seat. This despite the fact that President Trump carried 20 of those 41 seats when he won in 2016. These conditions, along with strong Democratic fundraising and mediocre Republican candidate recruitment in many key races, have left a pretty short list of Democratic incumbents who are in serious danger of defeat, as the table below shows.
Most House Democrats in competitive races have good odds Democratic House incumbents who are seeking reelection and have less than a 95 percent chance of winning, according to the final numbers from the Deluxe version of FiveThirtyEight’s forecast District Incumbent Flipped GOP seat in 2018 Chance of winning Rating MN-07 Collin Peterson 19% Likely R OK-05 Kendra Horn ✓ 51 Toss-up NM-02 Xochitl Torres Small ✓ 55 Toss-up UT-04 Ben McAdams ✓ 56 Toss-up CA-21 TJ Cox ✓ 58 Toss-up NY-11 Max Rose ✓ 58 Toss-up SC-01 Joe Cunningham ✓ 64 Lean D CA-48 Harley Rouda ✓ 68 Lean D NV-04 Steven Horsford 72 Lean D NY-22 Anthony Brindisi ✓ 73 Lean D CA-39 Gil Cisneros ✓ 74 Lean D GA-06 Lucy McBath ✓ 74 Lean D TX-07 Lizzie Pannill Fletcher ✓ 75 Lean D NJ-07 Tom Malinowki ✓ 76 Likely D OR-04 Peter DeFazio 78 Likely D VA-07 Abigail Spanberger ✓ 79 Likely D FL-27 Donna Shalala ✓ 81 Likely D FL-26 Debbie Mucarsel-Powell ✓ 82 Likely D NV-03 Susie Lee 83 Likely D NH-01 Chris Pappas 84 Likely D TX-32 Colin Allred ✓ 84 Likely D WI-03 Ron Kind 84 Likely D IA-03 Cindy Axne ✓ 84 Likely D IL-06 Sean Casten ✓ 87 Likely D VA-02 Elaine Luria ✓ 87 Likely D IL-14 Lauren Underwood ✓ 87 Likely D IA-01 Abby Finkenauer ✓ 87 Likely D AZ-01 Tom O’Halleran 88 Likely D PA-17 Conor Lamb ✓ 89 Likely D CA-10 Josh Harder ✓ 92 Likely D PA-08 Matt Cartwright 92 Likely D MI-11 Haley Stevens ✓ 93 Likely D NJ-03 Andy Kim ✓ 93 Likely D MN-02 Angie Craig ✓ 93 Likely D CA-45 Katie Porter ✓ 94 Likely D NC-01 G.K. Butterfield 94 Likely D MI-08 Elissa Slotkin ✓ 94 Likely D NY-19 Antonio Delgado ✓ 94 Likely D
In other words, these seemingly more competitive seats are, for the most part, not necessarily that close, which limits the GOP’s path back to a majority. Nevertheless, a handful of Democratic incumbents are in jeopardy of losing. In fact, the most vulnerable incumbent from either party is Democratic Rep. Collin Peterson of Minnesota, who has about a 1 in 5 chance of winning reelection in a seat that Trump won by 31 points four years ago, according to Daily Kos Elections. Beyond Peterson, five other Democrats fall into the “toss-up” range in our forecast: Reps. Kendra Horn of Oklahoma, TJ Cox of California, Max Rose of New York, Xochitl Torres Small of New Mexico and Ben McAdams of Utah. Of that quintet, Cox is the outlier because he’s the only one running in a seat that is pretty Democratic-leaning at the presidential level — Trump lost it by 16 points in 2016 — whereas the others all hold seats Trump won by at least 7 points. But Cox’s seat is probably one of the better candidate recruitment situations for the GOP, as ex-Rep. David Valadao, who Cox defeated by less than 1 point in 2018, is back for a rematch.
Aside from the strength of their incumbents, Democrats have also benefited from the sheer number of Republican retirements this year. Not to mention, some GOP primary challenges that resulted in some incumbents losing renomination. Although the incumbency advantage is not nearly as strong as it once was, open seats tend to be harder for the incumbent party to retain, and the disproportionate number of Republican exits from the House has left some vulnerable turf for them to defend. As the table below shows, this means Republicans are defending almost all of the 17 open seats where neither party is a safe bet.
Republicans are defending more competitive open seats Democratic chances of victory in open House seats where the incumbent party has less than a 95 percent chance of winning, according to the final numbers from the Deluxe version of FiveThirtyEight’s forecast District Incumbent Party Dem. chances Rating NC-02 R 100% Safe D NC-06 R 100 Safe D IA-02 D 88 Likely D TX-23 R 74 Lean D NY-02 R 57 Toss-up IN-05 R 50 Toss-up VA-05 R 49 Toss-up TX-24 R 48 Toss-up MI-03 L 44 Toss-up GA-07 R 43 Toss-up CO-03 R 39 Lean R TX-22 R 32 Lean R NC-11 R 27 Lean R MT-AL R 23 Likely R FL-15 R 19 Likely R KS-02 R 9 Likely R CA-50 R 5 Likely R
While Democrats are only outright favorites in three GOP-held seats, that trio account for half of the six seats that Hillary Clinton carried in 2016 that Republicans still control (GOP incumbents are running in the other three). Two are near-certain Democratic pickups thanks to North Carolina’s court-ordered redistricting, which made those seats much more Democratic-leaning and precipitated the retirements of two Republican incumbents. And Republican Rep. Will Hurd’s retirement in Texas’s 23rd Congressional District, which Trump lost by 3 points in 2016, has given Democratic nominee Gina Ortiz Jones a clear edge there. Additionally, Democrats are roughly even bets to win a number of other open Republican-held districts, including suburban seats like Indiana’s 5th Congressional District around Indianapolis and New York’s 2nd Congressional District on Long Island, both left open by retirements. They also have a shot at winning GOP-controlled seats where the incumbent lost renomination, such as Virginia’s 5th Congressional District and Colorado’s 3rd Congressional District. What’s more, only one Democratic-held open seat — Iowa’s 2nd Congressional District — is at all in play, and the Democrats have nearly a 9 in 10 chance of keeping it.
Lastly, Democrats are also in an enviable position because they stand to defeat some Republican incumbents in competitive contests, too. Whereas only 13 Democratic incumbents seeking reelection have less than a 3 in 4 chance of winning reelection, slightly more Republicans — 14 — are in the same position. Still, the one silver lining for Republicans is that none of their incumbents is a clear underdog, as the table below shows. So most of these races might be a bit of a reach for Democrats hoping to pad their margins.
House Republicans whose seats aren’t “safe” Republican House incumbents who are seeking reelection and have less than a 95 percent chance of winning, according to the final numbers from the Deluxe version of FiveThirtyEight’s forecast District Incumbent Chance of winning Rating CA-25 Mike Garcia 45% Toss-up NJ-02 Jeff Van Drew 50 Toss-up PA-10 Scott Perry 52 Toss-up AZ-06 David Schweikert 57 Toss-up OH-01 Steve Chabot 58 Toss-up MN-01 Jim Hagedorn 60 Lean R NE-02 Don Bacon 60 Lean R IL-13 Rodney Davis 63 Lean R NY-24 John Katko 64 Lean R NC-08 Richard Hudson 66 Lean R AR-02 French Hill 66 Lean R MO-02 Ann Wagner 69 Lean R TX-21 Chip Roy 71 Lean R MI-06 Fred Upton 71 Lean R AK-AL Don Young 79 Likely R WA-03 Jaime Herrera Beutler 82 Likely R PA-01 Brian Fitzpatrick 84 Likely R KY-06 Andy Barr 85 Likely R NY-01 Lee Zeldin 86 Likely R TX-25 Roger Williams 89 Likely R NC-09 Dan Bishop 90 Likely R MI-07 Tim Walberg 90 Likely R FL-16 Vern Buchanan 90 Likely R TX-03 Van Tayor 90 Likely R OH-10 Mike Turner 91 Likely R TX-10 Michael McCaul 92 Likely R TX-06 Ron Wright 92 Likely R FL-18 Brian Mast 93 Likely R VA-01 Rob Wittman 93 Likely R CA-42 Ken Calvert 93 Likely R TX-31 John Carter 94 Likely R OH-12 Troy Balderson 94 Likely R MN-08 Pete Stauber 95 Likely R
GOP Rep. Mike Garcia, who won a special election earlier this year to fill a vacancy in California’s 25th Congressional District, heads into the election as the most at-risk Republican incumbent. But along with Garcia are four others in toss-up contests: Reps. Jeff Van Drew of New Jersey, Scott Perry of Pennsylvania, David Schweikert of Arizona and Don Bacon of Nebraska. Van Drew won as a Democrat in 2018 but switched parties after voting against impeaching Trump, probably thinking he’d have an easier time as a Republican in a district that backed Trump by about 5 points in 2016, but the race is super close and he’s been outraised by Democrat Amy Kennedy — yes, part of that Kennedy family. Bacon, meanwhile, is defending a seat that could also matter a great deal in the presidential race because Nebraska apportions one electoral vote to each of its congressional districts, and its 2nd Congressional District is somewhat more likely to vote for Biden than Trump.
Bottom line: Democrats have benefited from an overall Democratic-leaning national environment, in addition to a number of strong Democratic incumbents, a sizable number of competitive Republican-held open seats and some vulnerable GOP officeholders. There’s no fuzziness here in what our forecast says: Democrats are in a very strong position to maintain control of the House. We’ll see how it plays out once the votes are counted, but a Democratic hold would be one of the more unsurprising outcomes in this election.


fivethirthyeight--2020-11-03--Final Forecast: Democrats Have A 3-In-4 Chance Of Flipping The Senate

Democrats are favored to take control of the Senate in the 2020 elections , according to the final version of FiveThirtyEight ’ s Senate forecast .
With the forecast set in stone as of early Tuesday morning , Democrats have a 75 in 100 chance of flipping the chamber .
Republicans , meanwhile , have a 25 in 100 chance of keeping control — as likely as drawing a spade from a deck of cards .
However , a ton of seats are still competitive ; in 80 percent of our model ’ s simulations , Democrats wind up with @ @ @ @ @ @ @ That ’ s a big range !
And the exact number of seats here matters , because it ’ s not just about control of the chamber .
Winning 50 seats ( plus the tie-breaking vice presidential vote ) is a very different outcome for Democrats from winning 55 seats , as the size of their majority would affect how likely they are to pass their ambitious agenda over the objections of more moderate Democrats like , say , Sen. Joe Manchin of West Virginia .
Now for those competitive seats .
There @ @ @ @ @ @ @ both parties have at least a 5 in 100 chance of victory .
But a big reason why Democrats are favored overall is that Republicans have far more seats at risk — 13 in total , as the table below shows .
( We ’ ll touch on those four seats Democrats could lose in a moment . )
Remember , Democrats need a net gain of only three seats ( if they also win the vice presidency ) or four ( if Vice President Mike Pence wins a second term ) in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ all of those GOP-held seats are equally vulnerable — so let ’ s break them down into categories based on roughly how likely they are to turn blue .
First , there are the two Republican-held seats most likely to fall to Democrats : Colorado and Arizona .
In Colorado , former Gov .
John Hickenlooper ’ s chances of defeating Republican Sen. Cory Gardner look particularly strong : 84 in 100 .
This is probably due in part to the fact that Joe Biden looks extremely likely to carry Colorado , and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ voters to split their tickets between the presidential and Senate races .
In Arizona , Biden ’ s victory is less assured , but former astronaut Mark Kelly has proven to be an extremely strong recruit for Democrats in Arizona , raising more than $ 87 million in individual contributions and leading in almost every poll since he entered the race in early 2019 .
Hurt by the fact that she is an appointed senator ( which affords her almost no incumbency advantage ) , Republican Martha McSally has just a 22 in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Republican-held seats lean toward Democrats — although in all likelihood , we ’ ll only know who won one of them today : North Carolina .
There , former state Sen. Cal Cunningham is a 68 in 100 favorite to defeat Republican Sen. Thom Tillis .
Despite revelations that Cunningham sent sexts to a woman who is not his wife , the race has been pretty stable , and he has managed to hold onto a narrow polling lead .
We give Democrats similar odds ( a 63 in 100 chance ) of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ election — but this race will almost certainly not be decided until January .
That ’ s because the race is a battle royal among 20 candidates of all parties ( there was no primary ) , making it nearly impossible that any one candidate will secure the majority of votes necessary to win .
Assuming that doesn ’ t happen , the top two finishers will advance to a runoff on Jan. 5 .
Democrats currently lead in polls of the runoff , but a lot can happen in the next two @ @ @ @ @ @ @ state .
Then there are the three Republican-held seats that are more or less toss-ups .
In Maine , Democratic state House Speaker Sara Gideon has a 59 in 100 chance to win , while incumbent Republican Sen. Susan Collins has a 41 in 100 chance .
Polls have generally favored Gideon , but Collins , with her moderate voting record and history of running well ahead of other Republicans in Maine , is a strong incumbent who may be able to overcome the state ’ s blue tinge .
The tables are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ race , where Republican Sen. David Perdue has 57 in 100 odds and Democratic challenger Jon Ossoff isn ’ t that far behind at 43 in 100 .
There ’ s also a decent chance that this race goes to a runoff , as our average vote-share predictions show neither candidate hitting 50 percent .
Last but not least , Iowa is another virtual coin flip of a race : Republican Sen. Joni Ernst has a 58 in 100 chance of winning , while Democrat Theresa Greenfield is at 42 in 100 .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ the difference between a slim Democratic majority and a robust one are the six Republican-held seats where Democrats are underdogs — but still have an outside shot to pick off .
Perhaps the most likely candidate for an upset is in Montana , where Republican Sen. Steve Daines has a 69 in 100 chance to win — but Democrat Steve Bullock , the state ’ s popular governor , has a 31 in 100 chance .
Democrats also have a respectable 23 in 100 chance in Alaska and a 20 in 100 chance @ @ @ @ @ @ @ strong independent identities that could help them swim against the partisan tide in these fairly red states .
In Alaska , Al Gross is an independent running as a Democrat ; in Kansas , state Sen. Barbara Bollier was a Republican until 2018 .
And in South Carolina , Jaime Harrison has become the 2020 cycle ’ s Beto O ’ Rourke — a Democrat running a surprisingly strong campaign in a red state against a boldfaced Republican name ( in this case , Sen. Lindsey Graham ) .
Harrison has raised almost @ @ @ @ @ @ @ individual contributions , recently breaking O ’ Rourke ’ s record for biggest Senate fundraising quarter ever .
Harrison has also kept things close in the polls but has just a 23 in 100 chance to win .
Finally , Sens .
Cindy Hyde-Smith ( 88 in 100 ) and John Cornyn ( 86 in 100 ) are healthy favorites to win another term in Mississippi and Texas , respectively , but they aren ’ t totally safe either .
So that ’ s a lot of potential Democratic pickups .
But the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ only half the equation : Let ’ s not forget that Republicans have a few chances to play offense as well , which could negate some of those Democratic gains .
But the problem for Republicans is simply that they have fewer seats to target .
In fact , they ’ re likely to flip only one seat .
That ’ s in Alabama , where Republican Tommy Tuberville has an 87 in 100 chance to defeat Democratic Sen. Doug Jones .
While Jones is the incumbent and raised a considerable amount of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , he arguably won the seat in 2017 ’ s special election only because his scandal-tarred Republican opponent was a historically weak candidate .
Ultimately , our forecast thinks Alabama is just too red for Jones to win reelection .
Democrats are pretty strong favorites in every other Democratic-held Senate seat up this year , though .
Some Republicans are optimistic that John James can defeat Sen. Gary Peters in Michigan — and he is one of Republicans ’ strongest recruits of the cycle , having raised almost $ 36 million in individual @ @ @ @ @ @ @ James only a 17 in 100 chance .
And New Mexico and Minnesota are on the cusp of being noncompetitive , as Republicans have only a 6 in 100 chance in the former and a 5 in 100 chance in the latter .
With Republicans likely to defeat one Democratic incumbent , Democrats probably need to flip four Republican-held seats to secure that coveted majority .
And that ’ s very possible : They have a clear path to do so through Colorado , Arizona , North Carolina and ( maybe eventually ) @ @ @ @ @ @ @ other states where they have a real , if longer , shot .
Overall , when the dust settles , our forecast projects that Democrats will have an average of 52 Senate seats and Republicans an average of 48 .
However , while we hope we know on Tuesday night which party will control the next Senate , we almost certainly won ’ t know its exact composition thanks to potential runoffs in Georgia and slow vote counts in states like Alaska .
It may be pencils down for our forecast , but @ @ @ @ @ @ @ weeks as we wrap up all the loose ends in the Senate and elsewhere .

Democrats are favored to take control of the Senate in the 2020 elections, according to the final version of FiveThirtyEight’s Senate forecast. With the forecast set in stone as of early Tuesday morning, Democrats have a 75 in 100 chance of flipping the chamber. Republicans, meanwhile, have a 25 in 100 chance of keeping control — as likely as drawing a spade from a deck of cards.
However, a ton of seats are still competitive; in 80 percent of our model’s simulations, Democrats wind up with anywhere between 48 and 55 seats. That’s a big range! And the exact number of seats here matters, because it’s not just about control of the chamber. Winning 50 seats (plus the tie-breaking vice presidential vote) is a very different outcome for Democrats from winning 55 seats, as the size of their majority would affect how likely they are to pass their ambitious agenda over the objections of more moderate Democrats like, say, Sen. Joe Manchin of West Virginia.
Now for those competitive seats. There are a whopping 17 Senate seats where both parties have at least a 5 in 100 chance of victory. But a big reason why Democrats are favored overall is that Republicans have far more seats at risk — 13 in total, as the table below shows. (We’ll touch on those four seats Democrats could lose in a moment.)
Democrats have many opportunities to pick up Senate seats Republican-held Senate seats that have less than a 95 percent chance of remaining Republican, according to the final numbers from the Deluxe version of FiveThirtyEight’s forecast Chance of Winning State Incumbent Dem. GOP Colorado Cory Gardner 84% 16% Arizona* Martha McSally 78 22 North Carolina Thom Tillis 68 32 Georgia* Kelly Loeffler 63 37 Maine Susan Collins 59 41 Georgia David Perdue 43 57 Iowa Joni Ernst 42 58 Montana Steve Daines 31 69 South Carolina Lindsey Graham 23 77 Alaska Dan Sullivan 23 77 Kansas OPEN 20 80 Texas John Cornyn 14 86 Mississippi Cindy Hyde-Smith 12 88 *Special election.
Remember, Democrats need a net gain of only three seats (if they also win the vice presidency) or four (if Vice President Mike Pence wins a second term) in order to take control. But not all of those GOP-held seats are equally vulnerable — so let’s break them down into categories based on roughly how likely they are to turn blue.
First, there are the two Republican-held seats most likely to fall to Democrats: Colorado and Arizona. In Colorado, former Gov. John Hickenlooper’s chances of defeating Republican Sen. Cory Gardner look particularly strong: 84 in 100. This is probably due in part to the fact that Joe Biden looks extremely likely to carry Colorado, and it’s become increasingly rare for voters to split their tickets between the presidential and Senate races. In Arizona, Biden’s victory is less assured, but former astronaut Mark Kelly has proven to be an extremely strong recruit for Democrats in Arizona, raising more than $87 million in individual contributions and leading in almost every poll since he entered the race in early 2019. Hurt by the fact that she is an appointed senator (which affords her almost no incumbency advantage), Republican Martha McSally has just a 22 in 100 chance to prevail.
Be Wary Of Exit Polls This Year (Well, And All Years) | FiveThirtyEight
Two additional Republican-held seats lean toward Democrats — although in all likelihood, we’ll only know who won one of them today: North Carolina. There, former state Sen. Cal Cunningham is a 68 in 100 favorite to defeat Republican Sen. Thom Tillis. Despite revelations that Cunningham sent sexts to a woman who is not his wife, the race has been pretty stable, and he has managed to hold onto a narrow polling lead. We give Democrats similar odds (a 63 in 100 chance) of eventually prevailing in Georgia’s special election — but this race will almost certainly not be decided until January. That’s because the race is a battle royal among 20 candidates of all parties (there was no primary), making it nearly impossible that any one candidate will secure the majority of votes necessary to win. Assuming that doesn’t happen, the top two finishers will advance to a runoff on Jan. 5. Democrats currently lead in polls of the runoff, but a lot can happen in the next two months, and Georgia remains a Republican-leaning state.
Then there are the three Republican-held seats that are more or less toss-ups. In Maine, Democratic state House Speaker Sara Gideon has a 59 in 100 chance to win, while incumbent Republican Sen. Susan Collins has a 41 in 100 chance. Polls have generally favored Gideon, but Collins, with her moderate voting record and history of running well ahead of other Republicans in Maine, is a strong incumbent who may be able to overcome the state’s blue tinge. The tables are turned in Georgia’s other Senate race, where Republican Sen. David Perdue has 57 in 100 odds and Democratic challenger Jon Ossoff isn’t that far behind at 43 in 100. There’s also a decent chance that this race goes to a runoff, as our average vote-share predictions show neither candidate hitting 50 percent. Last but not least, Iowa is another virtual coin flip of a race: Republican Sen. Joni Ernst has a 58 in 100 chance of winning, while Democrat Theresa Greenfield is at 42 in 100.
But the races that could really make the difference between a slim Democratic majority and a robust one are the six Republican-held seats where Democrats are underdogs — but still have an outside shot to pick off. Perhaps the most likely candidate for an upset is in Montana, where Republican Sen. Steve Daines has a 69 in 100 chance to win — but Democrat Steve Bullock, the state’s popular governor, has a 31 in 100 chance. Democrats also have a respectable 23 in 100 chance in Alaska and a 20 in 100 chance in Kansas, where their candidates have strong independent identities that could help them swim against the partisan tide in these fairly red states. In Alaska, Al Gross is an independent running as a Democrat; in Kansas, state Sen. Barbara Bollier was a Republican until 2018. And in South Carolina, Jaime Harrison has become the 2020 cycle’s Beto O’Rourke — a Democrat running a surprisingly strong campaign in a red state against a boldfaced Republican name (in this case, Sen. Lindsey Graham). Harrison has raised almost $108 million (!) in individual contributions, recently breaking O’Rourke’s record for biggest Senate fundraising quarter ever. Harrison has also kept things close in the polls but has just a 23 in 100 chance to win. Finally, Sens. Cindy Hyde-Smith (88 in 100) and John Cornyn (86 in 100) are healthy favorites to win another term in Mississippi and Texas, respectively, but they aren’t totally safe either.
So that’s a lot of potential Democratic pickups. But the number of seats Democrats pick up is only half the equation: Let’s not forget that Republicans have a few chances to play offense as well, which could negate some of those Democratic gains. But the problem for Republicans is simply that they have fewer seats to target. In fact, they’re likely to flip only one seat.
The GOP has fewer opportunities to pick up Senate seats Democratic-held Senate seats that have less than a 95 percent chance of remaining Democratic, according to the final numbers from the Deluxe version of FiveThirtyEight’s forecast Chance of Winning State Incumbent Dem. GOP Alabama Doug Jones 13% 87% Michigan Gary Peters 83 17 New Mexico OPEN 94 6 Minnesota Tina Smith 95 5
That’s in Alabama, where Republican Tommy Tuberville has an 87 in 100 chance to defeat Democratic Sen. Doug Jones. While Jones is the incumbent and raised a considerable amount of money (far more than Tuberville), he arguably won the seat in 2017’s special election only because his scandal-tarred Republican opponent was a historically weak candidate. Ultimately, our forecast thinks Alabama is just too red for Jones to win reelection.
Democrats are pretty strong favorites in every other Democratic-held Senate seat up this year, though. Some Republicans are optimistic that John James can defeat Sen. Gary Peters in Michigan — and he is one of Republicans’ strongest recruits of the cycle, having raised almost $36 million in individual contributions — but our forecast nonetheless gives James only a 17 in 100 chance. And New Mexico and Minnesota are on the cusp of being noncompetitive, as Republicans have only a 6 in 100 chance in the former and a 5 in 100 chance in the latter.
With Republicans likely to defeat one Democratic incumbent, Democrats probably need to flip four Republican-held seats to secure that coveted majority. And that’s very possible: They have a clear path to do so through Colorado, Arizona, North Carolina and (maybe eventually) Georgia — not to mention the many other states where they have a real, if longer, shot. Overall, when the dust settles, our forecast projects that Democrats will have an average of 52 Senate seats and Republicans an average of 48. However, while we hope we know on Tuesday night which party will control the next Senate, we almost certainly won’t know its exact composition thanks to potential runoffs in Georgia and slow vote counts in states like Alaska. It may be pencils down for our forecast, but stay with FiveThirtyEight in the next several weeks as we wrap up all the loose ends in the Senate and elsewhere.


fivethirthyeight--2020-11-03--Biden’s Favored In Our Final Presidential Forecast, But It’s A Fine Line Between A Landslide And A N

Biden’s Favored In Our Final Presidential Forecast, But It’s A Fine Line Between A Landslide And A Nail-Biter

FiveThirtyEight has issued its final presidential forecast .
There hasn ’ t been a lot of change over the past 24 or 48 hours , as most of the late polling either came in close to our previous polling averages , or came from — frankly — fairly random pollsters that don ’ t get a lot of weight in our forecast .
Of course , you can click over to the forecast right now if you ’ d like to see what it says — I ’ m sure most of you have already done that .
But in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ provide some context .
When I wrote about our final presidential forecast in 2012 , for example , I was trying to explain why a race that everyone assumed was close actually reflected a fairly decisive advantage for Barack Obama .
When I wrote about our final forecast in 2016 , conversely , it was pretty much the opposite .
I was trying to explain that , although Hillary Clinton was favored , what most of the media was portraying as a sure thing was a highly competitive contest between her and Donald @ @ @ @ @ @ @ m not really sure what I ’ m trying to convince you of .
If you think that polling is irrevocably broken because of 2016 — well , that ’ s not really correct .
On the other hand , if it weren ’ t for 2016 , people might look at Joe Biden ’ s large lead in national polls — the largest of any candidate on the eve of the election since Bill Clinton in 1996 — and conclude that Trump was certain to be a one-term president .
If you @ @ @ @ @ @ @ story from earlier this week about how Trump can win and why a 10 percent chance needs to be taken seriously .
Nonetheless , Biden ’ s standing is considerably stronger than Clinton ’ s at the end of the 2016 race .
His lead is larger than Clinton ’ s in every battleground state , and more than double her lead nationally .
Our model forecasts Biden to win the popular vote by 8 percentage points , more than twice Clinton ’ s projected margin at the end of 2016 .
Indeed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Trump to prevail in 2016 wouldn ’ t seem to exist this year .
There are considerably fewer undecided voters in this race — just 4.8 percent of voters say they ’ re undecided or plan to vote for third-party candidates , as compared to 12.5 percent at the end of 2016 .
And the polls have been considerably more stable this year than they were four years ago .
Finally , unlike the “ Comey letter ” in the closing days of the campaign four years ago — when then-FBI Director James @ @ @ @ @ @ @ turned up pertinent to the investigation into the private email server that Clinton used as secretary of state — there ’ s been no major development in the final 10 days to further shake up the race .
Now , there are also some sources of error that weren ’ t as relevant four years ago .
The big surge in early and mail voting — around 100 million people have already voted !
— could present challenges to pollsters , for instance .
Still , even making what we think are fairly @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Biden with an 89 percent chance of winning the Electoral College , as compared to a 10 percent chance for Trump .
( The remaining 1 percent reflects rounding error , plus the chance of an Electoral College tie . )
But what ’ s tricky about this race is that — because of Trump ’ s Electoral College advantage , which he largely carries over from 2016 — it wouldn ’ t take that big of a polling error in Trump ’ s favor to make the election interesting .
Importantly , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ as a likely Trump win ; instead , the probable result of a 2016-style polling error would be a Biden victory but one that took some time to resolve and which could imperil Democrats ’ chances of taking over the Senate .
On the flip side , it wouldn ’ t take much of a polling error in Biden ’ s favor to turn 2020 into a historic landslide against Trump .
So as we did four years ago , let ’ s run through a few stress checks here .
On average @ @ @ @ @ @ @ have been off by around 3 percentage points .
How would the map change if there were a 3-point error in Trump ’ s direction ?
And what about a 3-point error in Biden ’ s direction ?
Keeping in mind that some states move more than others in accordance with national trends , here ’ s what our final forecast shows : First , before we get to the Biden-friendly or Trump-friendly scenarios : Suppose this is one of those happy years when there isn ’ t any systematic error in the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ by about 8 points nationally .
In that case , then Biden ’ s going to win the Electoral College , even if there might be polling misses in individual states .
Biden ’ s easiest path to victory would be to win back three of the so-called “ Blue Wall ” states that Hillary Clinton lost : Michigan , Wisconsin and Pennsylvania .
Coupled with the states that Clinton won in 2016 , that would get Biden up to 278 electoral votes , more than the 270 required .
Pennsylvania is the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ” group , but even if Biden lost it — unlikely if polls are about right overall — he ’ d have plenty of other options as he ’ s also narrowly ahead in our final forecast in Arizona , Florida , North Carolina and Georgia and only narrowly behind Trump in Ohio , Texas and Iowa .
What if there were a 3-point polling error in Biden ’ s favor ?
Then he ’ d be a favorite in all of the aforementioned states .
Coupled with the 2nd Congressional Districts in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s also favored , that would result in his winning 413 electoral votes .
Other states that are traditionally extremely red could even come into play for Biden too , with Montana being the most likely possibility , followed by South Carolina , Alaska and Missouri .
This scenario would also make for an 11-point popular vote margin for Biden , the biggest by any candidate since Ronald Reagan in 1984 , and the biggest winning margin against an incumbent since Franklin Delano Roosevelt against Herbert Hoover in 1932 .
But with a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ — more or less what happened in 2016 — the race would become competitive .
Biden would probably hold on , but he ’ d only be the outright favorite in states ( and congressional districts ) containing 279 electoral votes .
In Pennsylvania , the tipping-point state , he ’ d be projected to win by 1.7 percentage points — not within the recount margin , but a close race .
Such a scenario would not be the end of the world for Biden .
The extra cushion that he has relative @ @ @ @ @ @ @ means that with a 2016-style polling error , he ’ d narrowly win some states that she narrowly lost .
Biden has polled well recently in Michigan and Wisconsin in particular and has big leads there .
Still , this would not be the sort of outcome that Democrats were hoping for .
For one thing , because Biden would probably be reliant on Pennsylvania in this scenario — a state that is expected to take some time to count its vote — the election might take longer to call .
For another @ @ @ @ @ @ @ map as far as Democrats ’ Senate hopes go , as Biden would be a narrow underdog in several states with key Senate races , including Arizona , North Carolina , Georgia and Iowa .
So while Biden isn ’ t a normal-sized polling error away from losing , he is a normal-sized polling error away from having a messy win that might not come with control of Congress .
Still , as much as we ’ ve tried to strike a note of caution , Democrats have a right to be pleased @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , Biden could be in a meaningly safer position with a larger polling lead in Pennsylvania or Arizona , where his numbers have slipped a bit down the stretch run .
Nonetheless , if we ’ d told our Democratic readers six months ago that Biden would be heading into election morning ahead by 8 points nationally , also ahead by 8 points in Wisconsin and Michigan , by 5 points in Pennsylvania , by 2 or 3 points in Florida and Arizona , and even a little bit ahead in Georgia and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Texas , we think they ’ d be fairly pleased .
It ’ s also worth keeping in mind the background conditions in the country today .
Trump only barely won the election four years ago , against a highly unpopular opponent in Clinton .
In 2016 , 18 percent of voters in the national exit poll disliked both Trump and Clinton , and those voters went for Trump by 17 points .
If they ’ d merely split evenly , Clinton would have ( narrowly ) won the Electoral College .
Many @ @ @ @ @ @ @ though , who has much better favorability ratings than either Clinton or Trump .
Meanwhile , the election comes at a time where a 2:1 majority of voters are dissatisfied with the direction of the country amid a COVID-19 pandemic that his killed 233,000 Americans — and which has gotten worse in recent weeks — along with high ( though improving ) unemployment , a summer of racial protests , and continuous erosions of democratic norms by Trump and his administration .
Trump ’ s approval rating has been in negative territory through @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Trump ’ s electoral record is hardly unblemished : Democrats won the popular vote for the U.S. House by nearly 9 points in 2018 , about the same margin that Trump now trails in national polls , in an election where polls and forecasts were highly accurate .
In other words , given everything going on in the country — and Biden ’ s popularity relative to Clinton — it simply shouldn ’ t be that hard to imagine a small number of voters switching from Trump to Biden .
Indeed , that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are more Trump-to-Biden voters than Clinton-to-Trump voters .
The lion ’ s share of people who voted for Gary Johnson or another third party candidate four years ago also say they plan to vote for Biden .
Trump might be able to overcome this with a disproportionately high Republican turnout .
But while Republican turnout might be very high , Democratic turnout almost certainly will be too , as evidenced by , among other things : Democrats ’ equal or higher enthusiasm level in polls ; their very high numbers in early and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ prowess throughout the cycle .
Again , this is not to deny that Trump will turn out his voters , too .
Our model projects overall turnout in the race to be a record setting 158 million , with an 80th percentile range between 147 million and 168 million .
But if persuadable voters and independents are mostly flipping to the other party , you need your turnout to be high and for the other party ’ s to be low to have much of a shot , and that latter condition doesn @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Still , 10 percent chances happen , there ’ s never been an election quite like this one and this isn ’ t a moment that anybody should be taking anything for granted .
We hope you ’ ll follow our coverage for as long as it takes to determine who won .

FiveThirtyEight has issued its final presidential forecast. There hasn’t been a lot of change over the past 24 or 48 hours, as most of the late polling either came in close to our previous polling averages, or came from — frankly — fairly random pollsters that don’t get a lot of weight in our forecast.
Of course, you can click over to the forecast right now if you’d like to see what it says — I’m sure most of you have already done that. But in these accompanying write-ups, I like to provide some context. When I wrote about our final presidential forecast in 2012, for example, I was trying to explain why a race that everyone assumed was close actually reflected a fairly decisive advantage for Barack Obama. When I wrote about our final forecast in 2016, conversely, it was pretty much the opposite. I was trying to explain that, although Hillary Clinton was favored, what most of the media was portraying as a sure thing was a highly competitive contest between her and Donald Trump.
This year … I’m not really sure what I’m trying to convince you of. If you think that polling is irrevocably broken because of 2016 — well, that’s not really correct. On the other hand, if it weren’t for 2016, people might look at Joe Biden’s large lead in national polls — the largest of any candidate on the eve of the election since Bill Clinton in 1996 — and conclude that Trump was certain to be a one-term president. If you do think that, please read my story from earlier this week about how Trump can win and why a 10 percent chance needs to be taken seriously.
Nonetheless, Biden’s standing is considerably stronger than Clinton’s at the end of the 2016 race. His lead is larger than Clinton’s in every battleground state, and more than double her lead nationally. Our model forecasts Biden to win the popular vote by 8 percentage points, more than twice Clinton’s projected margin at the end of 2016.
What the election map will look like if there’s a 2016-sized polling error
Indeed, some of the dynamics that allowed Trump to prevail in 2016 wouldn’t seem to exist this year. There are considerably fewer undecided voters in this race — just 4.8 percent of voters say they’re undecided or plan to vote for third-party candidates, as compared to 12.5 percent at the end of 2016. And the polls have been considerably more stable this year than they were four years ago. Finally, unlike the “Comey letter” in the closing days of the campaign four years ago — when then-FBI Director James Comey told Congress that new evidence had turned up pertinent to the investigation into the private email server that Clinton used as secretary of state — there’s been no major development in the final 10 days to further shake up the race.
Now, there are also some sources of error that weren’t as relevant four years ago. The big surge in early and mail voting — around 100 million people have already voted! — could present challenges to pollsters, for instance. Still, even making what we think are fairly conservative assumptions, our final forecast has Biden with an 89 percent chance of winning the Electoral College, as compared to a 10 percent chance for Trump. (The remaining 1 percent reflects rounding error, plus the chance of an Electoral College tie.)
But what’s tricky about this race is that — because of Trump’s Electoral College advantage, which he largely carries over from 2016 — it wouldn’t take that big of a polling error in Trump’s favor to make the election interesting. Importantly, interesting isn’t the same thing as a likely Trump win; instead, the probable result of a 2016-style polling error would be a Biden victory but one that took some time to resolve and which could imperil Democrats’ chances of taking over the Senate. On the flip side, it wouldn’t take much of a polling error in Biden’s favor to turn 2020 into a historic landslide against Trump.
So as we did four years ago, let’s run through a few stress checks here. On average in past elections, the final polls have been off by around 3 percentage points. How would the map change if there were a 3-point error in Trump’s direction? And what about a 3-point error in Biden’s direction? Keeping in mind that some states move more than others in accordance with national trends, here’s what our final forecast shows:
How a 2016-sized polling error would change our forecast Biden’s projected margin of victory or defeat in the most competitive states with 3-point national error … State Final 538 Forecast IN BIDEN’S FAVOR IN TRUMP’S FAVOR New Hampshire +10.6 +14.5 +6.7 Minnesota +9.1 +12.1 +6.0 Wisconsin +8.3 +11.6 +5.1 Michigan +8.0 +11.2 +4.9 Nevada +6.1 +9.5 +2.8 Pennsylvania +4.7 +7.7 +1.7 NE-2 +3.2 +6.4 -0.0 Arizona +2.6 +5.8 -0.7 Florida +2.5 +5.7 -0.7 North Carolina +1.8 +4.7 -1.1 ME-2 +1.6 +4.8 -1.6 Georgia +1.0 +3.6 -1.6 Ohio -0.6 +2.5 -3.7 Iowa -1.5 +2.0 -5.0 Texas -1.5 +1.7 -4.7 Montana -6.4 -3.3 -9.5 South Carolina -7.5 -4.8 -10.2 Alaska -8.5 -5.3 -11.7 Missouri -9.4 -6.3 -12.5
First, before we get to the Biden-friendly or Trump-friendly scenarios: Suppose this is one of those happy years when there isn’t any systematic error in the polls — that is, Biden wins by about 8 points nationally. In that case, then Biden’s going to win the Electoral College, even if there might be polling misses in individual states. Biden’s easiest path to victory would be to win back three of the so-called “Blue Wall” states that Hillary Clinton lost: Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. Coupled with the states that Clinton won in 2016, that would get Biden up to 278 electoral votes, more than the 270 required. Pennsylvania is the most tenuous of the “Blue Wall” group, but even if Biden lost it — unlikely if polls are about right overall — he’d have plenty of other options as he’s also narrowly ahead in our final forecast in Arizona, Florida, North Carolina and Georgia and only narrowly behind Trump in Ohio, Texas and Iowa.
What if there were a 3-point polling error in Biden’s favor? Then he’d be a favorite in all of the aforementioned states. Coupled with the 2nd Congressional Districts in Maine and Nebraska, where he’s also favored, that would result in his winning 413 electoral votes. Other states that are traditionally extremely red could even come into play for Biden too, with Montana being the most likely possibility, followed by South Carolina, Alaska and Missouri. This scenario would also make for an 11-point popular vote margin for Biden, the biggest by any candidate since Ronald Reagan in 1984, and the biggest winning margin against an incumbent since Franklin Delano Roosevelt against Herbert Hoover in 1932.
But with a 3-point error in Trump’s direction — more or less what happened in 2016 — the race would become competitive. Biden would probably hold on, but he’d only be the outright favorite in states (and congressional districts) containing 279 electoral votes. In Pennsylvania, the tipping-point state, he’d be projected to win by 1.7 percentage points — not within the recount margin, but a close race.
Such a scenario would not be the end of the world for Biden. The extra cushion that he has relative to Clinton helps a lot; it means that with a 2016-style polling error, he’d narrowly win some states that she narrowly lost. Biden has polled well recently in Michigan and Wisconsin in particular and has big leads there. Still, this would not be the sort of outcome that Democrats were hoping for. For one thing, because Biden would probably be reliant on Pennsylvania in this scenario — a state that is expected to take some time to count its vote — the election might take longer to call. For another, it could yield a fairly bad map as far as Democrats’ Senate hopes go, as Biden would be a narrow underdog in several states with key Senate races, including Arizona, North Carolina, Georgia and Iowa. So while Biden isn’t a normal-sized polling error away from losing, he is a normal-sized polling error away from having a messy win that might not come with control of Congress.
Still, as much as we’ve tried to strike a note of caution, Democrats have a right to be pleased about where they wound up. Sure, Biden could be in a meaningly safer position with a larger polling lead in Pennsylvania or Arizona, where his numbers have slipped a bit down the stretch run. Nonetheless, if we’d told our Democratic readers six months ago that Biden would be heading into election morning ahead by 8 points nationally, also ahead by 8 points in Wisconsin and Michigan, by 5 points in Pennsylvania, by 2 or 3 points in Florida and Arizona, and even a little bit ahead in Georgia and with a pretty decent chance to win Texas, we think they’d be fairly pleased.
It’s also worth keeping in mind the background conditions in the country today. Trump only barely won the election four years ago, against a highly unpopular opponent in Clinton. In 2016, 18 percent of voters in the national exit poll disliked both Trump and Clinton, and those voters went for Trump by 17 points. If they’d merely split evenly, Clinton would have (narrowly) won the Electoral College. Many of those voters actually like Biden, though, who has much better favorability ratings than either Clinton or Trump.
Meanwhile, the election comes at a time where a 2:1 majority of voters are dissatisfied with the direction of the country amid a COVID-19 pandemic that his killed 233,000 Americans — and which has gotten worse in recent weeks — along with high (though improving) unemployment, a summer of racial protests, and continuous erosions of democratic norms by Trump and his administration. Trump’s approval rating has been in negative territory through virtually the entirety of his presidency. Trump’s electoral record is hardly unblemished: Democrats won the popular vote for the U.S. House by nearly 9 points in 2018, about the same margin that Trump now trails in national polls, in an election where polls and forecasts were highly accurate.
In other words, given everything going on in the country — and Biden’s popularity relative to Clinton — it simply shouldn’t be that hard to imagine a small number of voters switching from Trump to Biden. Indeed, that’s what polls show: There are more Trump-to-Biden voters than Clinton-to-Trump voters. The lion’s share of people who voted for Gary Johnson or another third party candidate four years ago also say they plan to vote for Biden.
Trump might be able to overcome this with a disproportionately high Republican turnout. But while Republican turnout might be very high, Democratic turnout almost certainly will be too, as evidenced by, among other things: Democrats’ equal or higher enthusiasm level in polls; their very high numbers in early and absentee voting, and their greater fundraising prowess throughout the cycle.
Again, this is not to deny that Trump will turn out his voters, too. Our model projects overall turnout in the race to be a record setting 158 million, with an 80th percentile range between 147 million and 168 million. But if persuadable voters and independents are mostly flipping to the other party, you need your turnout to be high and for the other party’s to be low to have much of a shot, and that latter condition doesn’t appear likely for Trump.
Still, 10 percent chances happen, there’s never been an election quite like this one and this isn’t a moment that anybody should be taking anything for granted. We hope you’ll follow our coverage for as long as it takes to determine who won.


fivethirthyeight--2020-11-03--What The 2020 Election Map Would Look Like If There’s A 2016-Sized Polling Error

Our forecast shows former Vice President Joe Biden with a considerable lead .
But what would happen if 2020 saw @ @ @ @ @ error as we saw in 2016 ?
Podcast host Galen Druke guides us through the @ @ @

What The 2020 Election Map Would Look Like If There’s A 2016-Sized Polling Error
Our forecast shows former Vice President Joe Biden with a considerable lead. But what would happen if 2020 saw the same type of polling error as we saw in 2016? Podcast host Galen Druke guides us through the electoral map.


fivethirthyeight--2020-11-03--Even In The Middle Of A Pandemic, The 2020 Election Has Always Been About Trump

In the final preelection installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast , the crew takes a final look at the data @ @ @ @ @ that defined the 2020 campaign , and shares their guide for what to follow on @ @ @

Even In The Middle Of A Pandemic, The 2020 Election Has Always Been About Trump
In the final preelection installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the crew takes a final look at the data, reflects on the stories that defined the 2020 campaign, and shares their guide for what to follow on election night.


fivethirthyeight--2020-11-05--When Will We Finally Get Results In Unprojected States?

In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast , the crew discusses the election results so far , what results @ @ @ @ @ , and some of the trends in the data .

In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the crew discusses the election results so far, what results are left to come in, and some of the trends in the data.


fivethirthyeight--2020-11-05--Red And Blue Shifts Happen. That’s Not Evidence Of Fraud.

As the hours pass , some battleground states have swung back and forth between Joe Biden leads and Donald Trump @ @ @ @ @ explains , that ’ s not a sign of corruption or fraud .
It ’ @ @ @ @ @ the way Americans voted this year .
CORRECTION ( Nov. 4 , 2020 , 10 @ @ @ @ @ for a previous version of a chart in this video , showing the vote for @ @ @ @ @ time in Kansas , was incorrectly labeled .
The correct scale on the chart is @ @ @ @ @ not 0-8 million .

As the hours pass, some battleground states have swung back and forth between Joe Biden leads and Donald Trump leads. As Laura Bronner explains, that’s not a sign of corruption or fraud. It’s a predictable outcome of the way Americans voted this year.
CORRECTION (Nov. 4, 2020, 10 p.m.): The y-axis for a previous version of a chart in this video, showing the vote for Trump and Biden reported over time in Kansas, was incorrectly labeled. The correct scale on the chart is 0-800,000 votes in Kansas, not 0-8 million.


fivethirthyeight--2020-11-05--Politics Podcast: Biden’s Path To Victory Is Looking Clearer

After our colleagues at ABC News projected Joe Biden as the winner in Michigan , the former vice president ’ @ @ @ @ @ looking clearer .
In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast , the crew discusses @ @ @ @ @ what ’ s left to come in , and some of the trends in the @ @ @ @ @ to answer questions about polling errors in the 2020 election .
You can listen to @ @ @ @ @ “ play ” button in the audio player above or by downloading it in iTunes @ @ @ @ @ your favorite podcast platform .
If you are new to podcasts , learn how to @ @ @ @ @ podcast is recorded Mondays and Thursdays .
Help new listeners discover the show by leaving @ @ @ @ @ on iTunes .
Have a comment , question or suggestion for “ good polling vs. @ @ @ @ @ in touch by email , on Twitter or in the comments .

After our colleagues at ABC News projected Joe Biden as the winner in Michigan, the former vice president’s path to victory is looking clearer. In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the crew discusses the results so far, what’s left to come in, and some of the trends in the data. They also begin to answer questions about polling errors in the 2020 election.
You can listen to the episode by clicking the “play” button in the audio player above or by downloading it in iTunes, the ESPN App or your favorite podcast platform. If you are new to podcasts, learn how to listen.
The FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast is recorded Mondays and Thursdays. Help new listeners discover the show by leaving us a rating and review on iTunes. Have a comment, question or suggestion for “good polling vs. bad polling”? Get in touch by email, on Twitter or in the comments.


fivethirthyeight--2020-11-04--Politics Podcast: The Election Isn’t Over

In this late-night edition of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast , the crew discusses what we know so far about the @ @ @ @ @ .
TL ; DR there is still a lot we don ’ t know , @ @ @ @ @ vote is still uncounted .

In this late-night edition of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the crew discusses what we know so far about the results of the 2020 election. TL;DR there is still a lot we don’t know, and a lot of the vote is still uncounted.


fivethirthyeight--2020-11-03--How Politics Stick To Sports

How Politics Stick To Sports

In honor of Election Day here in the United States , we ’ re shaking up the format of the show a little this week .
We briefly discuss whether or not Tampa Bay Rays manager Kevin Cash should have pulled Blake Snell out of Game Six — probably not for Nick Anderson , but it ’ s not like it was the kind of decision that the now-World Series Champion Los Angeles Dodgers wouldn ’ t have made .
( They just capitalized on the Rays ’ misfortune . )
We also touch on Week 8 in the NFL @ @ @ @ @ @ @ sort of like favorites in this very odd year without clear favorites .
Although all three hosts ( and our model ) still have to give the Kansas City Chiefs the benefit of the doubt , no one team looks quite like a sure thing .
Except for poor Geoff ’ s New York Jets , that is , who made our survivor pool extremely difficult by having a bye week in which no one can bet against them .
But for most of the show , we talk about a project that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ : a comprehensive survey of the political donations of wealthy sports team owners and an exploration of the money they use to influence the American political system .
It ’ s a tricky topic with a number of counterintuitive nuances .
There are definitely some owners who are ideologically motivated to support a particular party , but most are trying to navigate politics to help their business interests or create social capital .
Those owners give to both parties , or to politicians that may at first seem to be odd matches .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ of politics , however , it ’ s burned away the middle ground where leagues and owners could avoid intrinsic moral judgments ( and the threat of fan or player boycotts ) based on their donation history or party affiliation .
No matter who wins the election , we likely aren ’ t going to see an easing of the tension between social activism and the Republican party , which means team owners ’ political spending will still be fraught with the potential to alienate or anger their audience .
Finally , in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ how sports stadiums and arenas were used as voting locations this year .
Mostly , it seems like a lot of fun to be able to take a selfie in Fenway Park after voting ( although it is unconfirmed if Lambeau Field allowed voters to take any Lambeau leaps ) .
But there is politics inherent in using sports stadiums as voting sites , too .
Our New York-based hosts would love to vote at least at Yankee Stadium ( apologies to the Mets , but it ’ s kind of a pain @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , but we ’ re not sure the trend will continue past 2020 .
What we ’ re looking at this week : • What motivates billionaire owners to donate to political campaigns ?
• What it looks like to vote at Fenway Park .

In honor of Election Day here in the United States, we’re shaking up the format of the show a little this week. We briefly discuss whether or not Tampa Bay Rays manager Kevin Cash should have pulled Blake Snell out of Game Six — probably not for Nick Anderson, but it’s not like it was the kind of decision that the now-World Series Champion Los Angeles Dodgers wouldn’t have made. (They just capitalized on the Rays’ misfortune.) We also touch on Week 8 in the NFL, and what teams at least look sort of like favorites in this very odd year without clear favorites. Although all three hosts (and our model) still have to give the Kansas City Chiefs the benefit of the doubt, no one team looks quite like a sure thing. Except for poor Geoff’s New York Jets, that is, who made our survivor pool extremely difficult by having a bye week in which no one can bet against them.
But for most of the show, we talk about a project that FiveThirtyEight and ESPN collaborated on last week: a comprehensive survey of the political donations of wealthy sports team owners and an exploration of the money they use to influence the American political system. It’s a tricky topic with a number of counterintuitive nuances. There are definitely some owners who are ideologically motivated to support a particular party, but most are trying to navigate politics to help their business interests or create social capital. Those owners give to both parties, or to politicians that may at first seem to be odd matches. As polarization has ratcheted up the intensity of politics, however, it’s burned away the middle ground where leagues and owners could avoid intrinsic moral judgments (and the threat of fan or player boycotts) based on their donation history or party affiliation. No matter who wins the election, we likely aren’t going to see an easing of the tension between social activism and the Republican party, which means team owners’ political spending will still be fraught with the potential to alienate or anger their audience.
Finally, in the Rabbit Hole, we look at how sports stadiums and arenas were used as voting locations this year. Mostly, it seems like a lot of fun to be able to take a selfie in Fenway Park after voting (although it is unconfirmed if Lambeau Field allowed voters to take any Lambeau leaps). But there is politics inherent in using sports stadiums as voting sites, too. Our New York-based hosts would love to vote at least at Yankee Stadium (apologies to the Mets, but it’s kind of a pain to get out to Citi Field), but we’re not sure the trend will continue past 2020.
What we’re looking at this week:


fivethirthyeight--2020-11-03--How We’re Preparing For Election Night And, Of Course, What We’re Watching

Election Day is finally here !
It ’ s an important day for the country and an exciting day here @ @ @ @ @ ) offices .
So how are we all preparing for tonight ?
And more importantly @ @ @ @ @ going to be watching for as results start coming in ?
Plus , Galen attempts @ @ @ @ @ Be sure to follow our Election Day live blog here all day .

How We’re Preparing For Election Night And, Of Course, What We’re Watching
Election Day is finally here! It’s an important day for the country and an exciting day here at the FiveThirtyEight (virtual) offices. So how are we all preparing for tonight? And more importantly, what are we all going to be watching for as results start coming in? Plus, Galen attempts to interview Fivey Fox.
Be sure to follow our Election Day live blog here all day.


fivethirthyeight--2020-11-03--Take Me Out To The Ballot Box

Take Me Out To The Ballot Box

It ’ s a familiar sight in Boston in mid-October : a line of people , many decked out in Red Sox gear , stretched down Jersey Street , waiting to pass through Gate A and enter historic Fenway Park .
But this year , they weren ’ t going to see a baseball game .
They were going to vote .
The Red Sox were one of dozens of sports teams to offer up their home stadiums as polling places for this election .
With the coronavirus pandemic forcing polling sites to relocate from cramped spaces like fire stations @ @ @ @ @ @ @ sports facilities have emerged as excellent alternatives ( if not without controversy in some cases ) .
Their massive size means they can process tons of voters at once and still leave space for social distancing , and some of them are even outdoors , which lowers the risk of transmitting the virus .
Plus , they ’ re just a cool place to vote — especially for fans who haven ’ t been able to see their favorite teams in person this year .
The demand to vote at Fenway was sky-high @ @ @ @ @ @ @ voting , a Red Sox staffer said the line wrapped around nearly the entire park , from Jersey Street to Van Ness Street to Ipswich Street to Lansdowne Street , and even later in the day , voters were waiting 45 minutes to get in .
Nevertheless , one family of Red Sox season ticket holders told me how happy they were just to have a chance to visit Fenway this year .
And voter Kate McElhiney said she went out of her way to vote at Fenway , which is on the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ home .
McElhiney told me she wanted to vote at Fenway partly because of the novelty , but also partly because she considered the cavernous , well-ventilated concourse the safest environment in which to vote .
While the pandemic may have created the demand for stadium polling places , it was the summer ’ s racial-justice demonstrations that inspired teams to supply them .
As Black Lives Matter protests swept the country in early June , the Atlanta Hawks were the first team in any league to volunteer their home court , State @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
“ Unfortunately — but fortunately for early voting — our facility was not hosting any games , ” Amy Phuong , the Hawks ’ vice president of government relations , told FiveThirtyEight .
“ So [ CEO Steve Koonin ] had an idea : With everyone out there lending their voices , what better way to lend our voice ?
” Bekah Salwasser , executive director of the Red Sox Foundation , agreed with that sentiment .
“ We know people around the country — for many months , through protests or @ @ @ @ @ @ @ said .
“ And we believe that one of the best ways to make definitive change as an individual and as a civilian in this country is by voting.
” Player activism played a huge role , especially in basketball .
In late August , NBA players ( led by the Milwaukee Bucks ) staged a wildcat strike in protest of the police shooting of Jacob Blake , and the movement was joined by players in the WNBA , MLB , MLS and NHL .
The NBA strike ended two days later after @ @ @ @ @ @ @ agreed to convert its arenas into polling places wherever possible , leading to several more facilities being approved as polling sites .
In total , at least 39 major-league sports facilities are being used as voting locations this fall — including 31 that are open for voting today , Election Day .
The list includes 11 NHL arenas , 10 NFL stadiums , five MLB ballparks and five WNBA arenas .
But the NBA leads the way , with 17 of its 28 domestic arenas converted into polling places .
While that falls @ @ @ @ @ @ @ strike of full participation , some other arenas are encouraging civic participation or assisting election officials in other ways .
The Oklahoma City Thunder held voter-registration drives inside the Chesapeake Energy Arena ; election workers were trained at the Detroit Pistons ’ Little Caesars Arena ; ballots will be counted inside the Memphis Grizzlies ’ FedExForum .
And while the Chase Center in San Francisco isn ’ t a polling place , other Golden State Warriors facilities are , and there is a ballot drop-off location outside the Chase Center itself .
Even @ @ @ @ @ @ @ could .
Ultimately , it ’ s not up to teams to decide whether their arenas become polling places — it ’ s up to election authorities .
( According to Salwasser and Phuong , Fenway and State Farm Arena both had to meet certain criteria before they were approved as polling places ; for instance , the Boston Election Department conducted a site visit of Fenway . )
And sometimes , a local government declined a team ’ s offers — much to the chagrin of the team .
For example , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Miami-Dade County rejected their invitation to make AmericanAirlines Arena an early-voting site , instead opting for a smaller space at a nearby museum .
The Miami Herald later revealed that county Mayor Carlos Gimenez , the Republican candidate for Florida ’ s 26th Congressional District , intervened to prevent election officials from choosing the arena .
And in Milwaukee , the Bucks ’ Fiserv Forum and the Brewers ’ Miller Park had already been announced as early-voting locations when the Milwaukee Election Commission abruptly dropped those plans , citing concerns that votes there @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , a Bucks senior vice president , told FiveThirtyEight that the team was disappointed by the decision and had been looking forward to giving people in Milwaukee , especially people of color , an accessible place to vote .
But “ we also know it was the right decision , ” Lasry said .
“ We want there to be no doubt every ballot cast is legitimate and don ’ t want anyone ’ s voices to be taken away.
” And the team was still able to chip in by hosting voter-registration @ @ @ @ @ @ @ serving as polling places , voters are being treated to a voting experience like no other .
At State Farm Arena , the Hawks set up three distinct voting areas , including one where voters entered through the giant “ Atlanta ” letters , were checked in amid the “ Hawk Walk ” concessions area and voted at machines set up throughout the 100-level concourse and arena floor .
Altogether , the arena housed more than 300 voting machines ; according to Phuong , that ’ s more than any other early-voting location @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the entire country .
She added that nearly 300 Hawks employees were helping out by filling roles as varied as greeting voters and serving as poll workers alongside county employees .
At Fenway , almost 100 Red Sox front-office staffers and day-of-game workers volunteered to help manage the crowds , while City of Boston poll workers handled the actual check-in and check-out processes .
First , just inside Gate A , voters confirmed with a poll worker that they were registered in Boston .
Then it was a short walk up a ramp @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 29-31 , where a second check-in desk sat ready to hand the voter one of 37 different ballots , depending on where in Boston they lived and what races they were eligible to vote in .
Voters marked their ballots at booths set up in front of a mural of Ted Williams and a Samuel Adams bar .
Then , after they dropped them into a ballot-collection box in front of a concession stand that normally sells soft serve ice cream , came the cherry on top : stickers reading , “ I @ @ @ @ @ @ @ chance to climb up into the grandstand and see the field .
What the election map will look like if there ’ s a 2016-sized polling error


fivethirthyeight--2020-11-06--Politics Podcast: Biden Could Soon Win Pennsylvania … And The Presidency

As votes continue to be counted in five key battleground states , and as Biden ’ s margins continue to @ @ @ @ @ likely that the presidential race will eventually be called for Biden .
In this installment @ @ @ @ @ , the crew shares an update on where votes are still coming in and what @ @ @ @ @ results at this point .
You can listen to the episode by clicking the “ @ @ @ @ @ audio player above or by downloading it in iTunes , the ESPN App or your @ @ @ @ @ you are new to podcasts , learn how to listen .
The FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast @ @ @ @ @ .
Help new listeners discover the show by leaving us a rating and review on @ @ @ @ @ , question or suggestion for “ good polling vs. bad polling ” ?
Get in @ @ @ @ @ Twitter or in the comments .

As votes continue to be counted in five key battleground states, and as Biden’s margins continue to improve, it looks very likely that the presidential race will eventually be called for Biden. In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the crew shares an update on where votes are still coming in and what to make of the overall results at this point.
You can listen to the episode by clicking the “play” button in the audio player above or by downloading it in iTunes, the ESPN App or your favorite podcast platform. If you are new to podcasts, learn how to listen.
The FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast is recorded Mondays and Thursdays. Help new listeners discover the show by leaving us a rating and review on iTunes. Have a comment, question or suggestion for “good polling vs. bad polling”? Get in touch by email, on Twitter or in the comments.


fivethirthyeight--2020-11-05--The Fate Of The Senate Likely Hinges On Georgia

We may not know who holds a majority in the Senate until one or two runoff elections are held in @ @ @ @ @ Galen Druke speaks with senior writer Perry Bacon Jr. about how which party controls the @ @ @ @ @ Biden presidency .

We may not know who holds a majority in the Senate until one or two runoff elections are held in Georgia next year, so Galen Druke speaks with senior writer Perry Bacon Jr. about how which party controls the Senate could affect a potential Biden presidency.