fivethirthyeight--2020-08-26--Is The Electoral Map Changing?

Is The Electoral Map Changing?

From one presidential election to the next , the battleground states that make — or break — the election remain largely the same .
But that doesn ’ t mean there aren ’ t gradual ( and sometimes , not so gradual ) shifts underway .
We zoomed in on how 16 battleground states have voted relative to the country as a whole since 2000 — or how much more Republican or Democratic they are relative to the nation1 — and we found an electoral map undergoing a series of changes , some steady and others abrupt .
Swing states @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 2016 How much more Republican- or Democratic-leaning a state ’ s popular vote was than the national popular vote in presidential elections , and how the state is forecasted to vote in 2020 , as of Aug. 25 Take Iowa and Ohio , which went from uber-competitive states to near blowouts for President Trump in 2016 .
Or Maine and Michigan , which hadn ’ t been all that competitive in 2008 or 2012 , but lurched to the right in 2016 .
In other words , 2016 marked a significant departure from @ @ @ @ @ @ @ years ; each state swung 7 points or more to the right , the biggest swings in that election .
One explanation for why these four states moved so suddenly to the right is that they each have a large share of voters ( at least 55 percent2 ) who are non-Hispanic white with less than a bachelor ’ s degree , a bloc that moved sharply toward the GOP in 2016 .
Additionally , Iowa and Maine rank among the most rural states in the country , which is another predictor of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ currently expects these states to step slightly to the left in 2020 , but there ’ s a lot of uncertainty here , especially in a state like Maine where the error bars are particularly large .
The next five states also shifted to the right in 2016 , but they didn ’ t veer quite as far as the previous four did .
States that moved just slightly to the right in 2016 How much more Republican- or Democratic-leaning a state ’ s popular vote was than the national popular vote in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is forecasted to vote in 2020 , as of Aug. 25 One reason why these states didn ’ t lurch as far to the right is that four of them3 have at least one large metropolitan area that votes heavily Democratic .
This offsets the rest of those states , which usually vote far more Republican .
However , as was true in the first four states we looked at , there has been a slow yet noticeable move to the right in these four states over the last several elections .
FiveThirtyEight @ @ @ @ @ @ @ these states , like New Hampshire and Wisconsin , might bounce back slightly to the left in 2020 , but also that others , like Minnesota , may continue to shift to the right .
On the other end of the spectrum , some 2020 battleground states moved to the left — considerably so — in the last election .
These states predominantly lie in the South and West , and the following trio of traditionally red states could all be up for grabs this November .
How much more Republican- or Democratic-leaning @ @ @ @ @ @ @ than the national popular vote in presidential elections , and how the state is forecasted to vote in 2020 , as of Aug. 25 Arizona , Georgia and Texas all moved at least 4 points to the left in 2016 , and it ’ s possible they ’ ll move even farther in 2020 .
After all , the 2018 midterm elections showed these states could elect Democrats statewide , or at least , come very close .
Democrats won a U.S. Senate seat in Arizona for the first time since 1988 , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s Senate race and Georgia ’ s gubernatorial contest .
What explains the leftward shift in these traditionally Republican states ?
For one thing , these states are more racially and ethnically diverse than most of the other states we ’ ve looked at — Arizona and Texas have large Hispanic populations , for instance , while Georgia has a sizable Black electorate — and people of color tend to vote more Democratic .
But these fairly urban states have also seen their major metropolitan areas such as Atlanta , Dallas , Houston @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the surge in college-educated voters .
At present , the FiveThirtyEight forecast anticipates these states will lean similar to how they did 2016 , although further shifts to the left are plausible .
For Democrats , the hope would be that those three states trend in ways similar to Colorado and Virginia , two formerly red states whose diverse and highly educated electorates have moved them to the left over the past two decades .
How much more Republican- or Democratic-leaning a state ’ s popular vote was than the national popular vote @ @ @ @ @ @ @ state is forecasted to vote in 2020 , as of Aug. 25 Colorado ’ s population is about one-fifth Hispanic and Virginia ’ s is about one-fifth Black , and both are only about two-thirds white .
And white voters in these states are more likely to hold at least a four-year college degree than in the other states we ’ ve examined .
Driven by increasingly Democratic vote shares in suburban and urban areas — especially around Denver and Washington , D.C. — Colorado and Virginia have moved far enough to the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ which Joe Biden leads by about 9 points nationally , they lie at the periphery of the competitive states .
That said , Florida and North Carolina are also racially diverse and home to a decent number of highly educated voters , but they haven ’ t become liberal bastions .
Instead , they have tended to vote a bit to the right of the country with little variation in recent years .
Some states are just swing states How much more Republican- or Democratic-leaning a state ’ s popular vote was than @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , and how the state is forecasted to vote in 2020 , as of Aug. 25 Florida is a hard state to categorize politically .
It has an elderly population that usually leans toward the GOP , but it also has a large Hispanic and Black population that leans Democratic -- with the caveat that a large share of its Latino vote is Cuban American , a group that has shifted toward Democrats over the last decade but remains far more Republican-leaning than other groups of Latinos .
North Carolina is also a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a fairly consistent Republican lean .
North Carolina ’ s white college-educated population share isn ’ t that much smaller than Virginia ’ s , but it has a larger share of white voters who don ’ t have a four-year degree .
Additionally , North Carolina ’ s white voters are somewhat more Republican-leaning , and the state tends to be more rural than Virginia .
As things stand , the forecast model expects these states to vote more or less like they did in 2016 — so they ’ ll be @ @ @ @ @ @ @ all to say that 2020 will be a pivotal year in understanding underlying trends within the Electoral College .
Will states like Iowa or Ohio move further to the right ?
Georgia and Texas further to the left ?
Or should we expect more of a reversion to the mean ?
Suffice it to say that , with Trump on the ballot this November , many of the forces we saw in 2016 will be prevalent again in 2020 .
But those forces may also define the parties moving forward , which means @ @ @ @ @ @ @ great deal about how the electoral map will look beyond 2020 .

From one presidential election to the next, the battleground states that make — or break — the election remain largely the same. But that doesn’t mean there aren’t gradual (and sometimes, not so gradual) shifts underway. We zoomed in on how 16 battleground states have voted relative to the country as a whole since 2000 — or how much more Republican or Democratic they are relative to the nation1 — and we found an electoral map undergoing a series of changes, some steady and others abrupt.
Swing states that moved sharply to the right in 2016
How much more Republican- or Democratic-leaning a state’s popular vote was than the national popular vote in presidential elections, and how the state is forecasted to vote in 2020, as of Aug. 25
80% of outcomes fall in this range in our 2020 forecast AVERAGE PARTISAN LEAN
Iowa Ohio Maine Michigan
Take Iowa and Ohio, which went from uber-competitive states to near blowouts for President Trump in 2016. Or Maine and Michigan, which hadn’t been all that competitive in 2008 or 2012, but lurched to the right in 2016. In other words, 2016 marked a significant departure from how these states had voted in recent years; each state swung 7 points or more to the right, the biggest swings in that election.
One explanation for why these four states moved so suddenly to the right is that they each have a large share of voters (at least 55 percent2 ) who are non-Hispanic white with less than a bachelor’s degree, a bloc that moved sharply toward the GOP in 2016. Additionally, Iowa and Maine rank among the most rural states in the country, which is another predictor of GOP-leaning politics. FiveThirtyEight’s forecast currently expects these states to step slightly to the left in 2020, but there’s a lot of uncertainty here, especially in a state like Maine where the error bars are particularly large. The next five states also shifted to the right in 2016, but they didn’t veer quite as far as the previous four did.
States that moved just slightly to the right in 2016
How much more Republican- or Democratic-leaning a state’s popular vote was than the national popular vote in presidential elections, and how the state is forecasted to vote in 2020, as of Aug. 25
80% of outcomes fall in this range in our 2020 forecast AVERAGE PARTISAN LEAN
Minnesota Nevada Pennsylvania New Hampshire Wisconsin
One reason why these states didn’t lurch as far to the right is that four of them3 have at least one large metropolitan area that votes heavily Democratic. This offsets the rest of those states, which usually vote far more Republican. However, as was true in the first four states we looked at, there has been a slow yet noticeable move to the right in these four states over the last several elections. FiveThirtyEight’s forecast anticipates that some of these states, like New Hampshire and Wisconsin, might bounce back slightly to the left in 2020, but also that others, like Minnesota, may continue to shift to the right.
On the other end of the spectrum, some 2020 battleground states moved to the left — considerably so — in the last election. These states predominantly lie in the South and West, and the following trio of traditionally red states could all be up for grabs this November.
Republican-leaning states that shifted to the left in 2016
How much more Republican- or Democratic-leaning a state’s popular vote was than the national popular vote in presidential elections, and how the state is forecasted to vote in 2020, as of Aug. 25
80% of outcomes fall in this range in our 2020 forecast AVERAGE PARTISAN LEAN
Arizona Georgia Texas
Arizona, Georgia and Texas all moved at least 4 points to the left in 2016, and it’s possible they’ll move even farther in 2020. After all, the 2018 midterm elections showed these states could elect Democrats statewide, or at least, come very close. Democrats won a U.S. Senate seat in Arizona for the first time since 1988, while Republicans only narrowly won Texas’s Senate race and Georgia’s gubernatorial contest.
What explains the leftward shift in these traditionally Republican states? For one thing, these states are more racially and ethnically diverse than most of the other states we’ve looked at — Arizona and Texas have large Hispanic populations, for instance, while Georgia has a sizable Black electorate — and people of color tend to vote more Democratic. But these fairly urban states have also seen their major metropolitan areas such as Atlanta, Dallas, Houston and Phoenix become increasingly Democratic because of the surge in college-educated voters. At present, the FiveThirtyEight forecast anticipates these states will lean similar to how they did 2016, although further shifts to the left are plausible.
For Democrats, the hope would be that those three states trend in ways similar to Colorado and Virginia, two formerly red states whose diverse and highly educated electorates have moved them to the left over the past two decades.
Former red states that increasingly vote blue
How much more Republican- or Democratic-leaning a state’s popular vote was than the national popular vote in presidential elections, and how the state is forecasted to vote in 2020, as of Aug. 25
80% of outcomes fall in this range in our 2020 forecast AVERAGE PARTISAN LEAN
Colorado Virginia
Colorado’s population is about one-fifth Hispanic and Virginia’s is about one-fifth Black, and both are only about two-thirds white. And white voters in these states are more likely to hold at least a four-year college degree than in the other states we’ve examined. Driven by increasingly Democratic vote shares in suburban and urban areas — especially around Denver and Washington, D.C. — Colorado and Virginia have moved far enough to the left that, in an environment in which Joe Biden leads by about 9 points nationally, they lie at the periphery of the competitive states.
That said, Florida and North Carolina are also racially diverse and home to a decent number of highly educated voters, but they haven’t become liberal bastions. Instead, they have tended to vote a bit to the right of the country with little variation in recent years.
Some states are just perennial swing states
How much more Republican- or Democratic-leaning a state’s popular vote was than the national popular vote in presidential elections, and how the state is forecasted to vote in 2020, as of Aug. 25
80% of outcomes fall in this range in our 2020 forecast AVERAGE PARTISAN LEAN
Florida North Carolina
Florida is a hard state to categorize politically. It has an elderly population that usually leans toward the GOP, but it also has a large Hispanic and Black population that leans Democratic -- with the caveat that a large share of its Latino vote is Cuban American, a group that has shifted toward Democrats over the last decade but remains far more Republican-leaning than other groups of Latinos. North Carolina is also a swing state, even though it has a fairly consistent Republican lean. North Carolina’s white college-educated population share isn’t that much smaller than Virginia’s, but it has a larger share of white voters who don’t have a four-year degree. Additionally, North Carolina’s white voters are somewhat more Republican-leaning, and the state tends to be more rural than Virginia. As things stand, the forecast model expects these states to vote more or less like they did in 2016 — so they’ll be as competitive as ever.
This is all to say that 2020 will be a pivotal year in understanding underlying trends within the Electoral College. Will states like Iowa or Ohio move further to the right? Georgia and Texas further to the left? Or should we expect more of a reversion to the mean? Suffice it to say that, with Trump on the ballot this November, many of the forces we saw in 2016 will be prevalent again in 2020. But those forces may also define the parties moving forward, which means this election could also tell us a great deal about how the electoral map will look beyond 2020.


fivethirthyeight--2020-08-26--What Went Down On Night 2 Of The RNC

What Went Down On Night 2 Of The RNC

What Went Down On Night 2 Of The RNC

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fivethirthyeight--2020-08-25--The Celtics Had No Patience For ‘The Process’

We begin at the end … at least for the Philadelphia 76ers , who were bounced from the first round of the NBA playoffs by the Boston Celtics .
The Sixers ’ ( somewhat incomplete ) “ process ” of deliberately tanking for several years in order to build up a championship winning super-team obviously hasn ’ t yielded the results they hoped for .
But the failure of The Process , ultimately , had less to do with hoarding draft picks and more to do with failing to form the players into a cohesive unit .
( Boston ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Sixers . )
Meanwhile the Toronto Raptors never faced much in the way of a threat from the Brooklyn Nets , but they put on an impressive first-round performance all the same — especially their bench shooting 100 in Game 4 .
Whoever survives the second-round series between the Raptors and Celtics just might be the team to beat in the Eastern Conference .
Next , we take a look at Major League Baseball ’ s looming trade deadline , figuring out which teams our Doyle number says should be buyers and which @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , obviously , a weird year , with many more teams in contention for the playoffs and a lot of financial uncertainty .
So , apart from the Boston Red Sox , who we think have to be opening up the store , we ’ re not sure there ’ s going to be too much trading .
And since we are — somehow — at the midpoint of baseball ’ s regular season , we give out our midseason MVP , Rookie of the Year and Cy Young Awards .
There ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ as Sara , Neil and Geoff all agree that Shane Bieber is the American League Cy Young winner so far , and everyone ’ s appreciative of Fernando Tatís Jr. , even though Neil makes the case for Mookie Betts as the National League ’ s MVP .
But each member of the Hot Takedown team makes their own case for several other candidates , and only some of them happen to be on Sara ’ s fantasy team .
Finally , in the Rabbit Hole , Neil and Geoff explore the increasingly @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a round , which PGA Tour rookie Scottie Scheffler did over the weekend .
A lot of the increase in super-low scores comes down to better equipment , smarter training and courses that don ’ t necessarily punish golfers for making a mistake .
But it ’ s only possible to fix the last thing .
Now instead of “ Tiger proofing ” golf courses , the PGA may need to “ everyone proof ” them .
What we ’ re looking at this week : • The Celtics stopped Joel Embiid in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ been the star the Dodgers needed .
• How Fernando Tatís Jr. started hitting the ball even harder .

We begin at the end … at least for the Philadelphia 76ers, who were bounced from the first round of the NBA playoffs by the Boston Celtics. The Sixers’ (somewhat incomplete) “process” of deliberately tanking for several years in order to build up a championship winning super-team obviously hasn’t yielded the results they hoped for. But the failure of The Process, ultimately, had less to do with hoarding draft picks and more to do with failing to form the players into a cohesive unit. (Boston’s great defense also helped sabotage the Sixers.) Meanwhile the Toronto Raptors never faced much in the way of a threat from the Brooklyn Nets, but they put on an impressive first-round performance all the same — especially their bench shooting 100 in Game 4. Whoever survives the second-round series between the Raptors and Celtics just might be the team to beat in the Eastern Conference.
Next, we take a look at Major League Baseball’s looming trade deadline, figuring out which teams our Doyle number says should be buyers and which should be sellers. But this is, obviously, a weird year, with many more teams in contention for the playoffs and a lot of financial uncertainty. So, apart from the Boston Red Sox, who we think have to be opening up the store, we’re not sure there’s going to be too much trading. And since we are — somehow — at the midpoint of baseball’s regular season, we give out our midseason MVP, Rookie of the Year and Cy Young Awards. There’s a fair amount of overlap, as Sara, Neil and Geoff all agree that Shane Bieber is the American League Cy Young winner so far, and everyone’s appreciative of Fernando Tatís Jr., even though Neil makes the case for Mookie Betts as the National League’s MVP. But each member of the Hot Takedown team makes their own case for several other candidates, and only some of them happen to be on Sara’s fantasy team.
Finally, in the Rabbit Hole, Neil and Geoff explore the increasingly common phenomenon of golfers shooting 59 for a round, which PGA Tour rookie Scottie Scheffler did over the weekend. A lot of the increase in super-low scores comes down to better equipment, smarter training and courses that don’t necessarily punish golfers for making a mistake. But it’s only possible to fix the last thing. Now instead of “Tiger proofing” golf courses, the PGA may need to “everyone proof” them.
What we’re looking at this week:


fivethirthyeight--2020-08-28--Can You Cover The Globe?

Can You Cover The Globe?

Welcome to The Riddler .
Every week , I offer up problems related to the things we hold dear around here : math , logic and probability .
Two puzzles are presented each week : the Riddler Express for those of you who want something bite-size and the Riddler Classic for those of you in the slow-puzzle movement .
Submit a correct answer for either , and you may get a shoutout in next week ’ s column .
Please wait until Monday to publicly share your answers !
If you need a hint or have a favorite puzzle collecting @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on Twitter .
Suppose you have a rope that goes all the way around the Earth ’ s equator , flat on the ground .
( For the entirety of this puzzle , you should assume that the Earth is a perfect sphere with a radius of 6,378 kilometers . )
You want to lengthen the rope just the right amount so that it ’ s 1 meter off the ground all the way around the Earth .
How much longer did you have to make the rope ?
If you ’ ve @ @ @ @ @ @ @ answer is surprisingly small — about 6.28 ( i.e.
, 2𝜋 ) meters .
Also , spoiler alert !
( Darn , I was one sentence too late . )
Now , instead of tying the Earth up with rope , you ’ ve moved on to covering the globe with a giant sheet that lies flat on the ground .
If you want the sheet to be 1 meter off the ground ( just like the rope ) , by how much would you have to increase the area of your sheet @ @ @ @ @ @ @ country , land mass or body of water has an area that is very close to your answer ?
From Duane Miller comes a riddle that is good for absolutely nothing : Duane ’ s friend ’ s granddaughter claimed that she once won a game of War that lasted exactly 26 turns — that is , the minimum possible number of turns .
War is a two-player game in which a standard deck of cards is first shuffled and then divided into two piles with 26 cards each — one pile for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the game , both players flip over and reveal the top card of their deck .
The player whose card has a higher rank wins the turn and places both cards on the bottom of their pile .
In the event that both cards have the same rank , the rules get a little more complicated , with each player flipping over additional cards to compare in a mini “ War ” showdown .
Duane ’ s friend ’ s granddaughter said that for every turn of the game , she always drew @ @ @ @ @ @ @ no mini “ Wars.
” Assuming a deck is randomly shuffled before every game , how many games of War would you expect to play until you had a game that lasted just 26 turns , like Duane ’ s friend ’ s granddaughter ?
Congratulations to 👏 Jacob Herlin 👏 of Denver , Colorado , winner of last week ’ s Riddler Express .
Last week , you were analyzing some unusual signals from deep space , measured at many regular intervals .
You computed that you heard zero signals in 45 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in 38 percent of the intervals and two signals in the remaining 17 percent of the intervals .
Your research adviser suggested that it may just have been random fluctuations from two sources .
Each source had some fixed probability of emitting a signal that you picked up , and together those sources generated the pattern in your data .
Was your adviser right ?
Was it possible for your data to have come from two random fluctuations ?
At first , this may have sounded like an astronomy question , but as @ @ @ @ @ @ @ probability question in disguise .
Since there were two random signals , we can assign probabilities to them and see what happens .
Suppose that , for any given interval , the first source emitted a signal with probability p , and the second source emitted a signal with probability q .
If you made the reasonable assumption that the sources were independent , then the probability you heard two signals was the product of these probabilities , pq .
Since you heard two signals 17 percent of the time , that meant @ @ @ @ @ @ @ wasn ’ t enough information to solve the problem .
Next , most solvers opted to analyze the 45 percent of intervals that had zero signals ( although looking at the one-signal intervals was equally valid ) .
The probability an interval had zero signals was the probability that the first source didn ’ t emit a signal , 1−p , times the probability the second source didn ’ t emit a signal , 1−q .
In other words , ( 1−p ) ( 1−q ) = 0.45 .
Expanding the expression on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Substituting the value 0.17 for pq and rearranging a little resulted in the equation p+q = 0.72 .
At this point , there was good news and bad news .
The good news was that we were looking for two values , p and q , knowing both their sum ( 0.72 ) and their product ( 0.17 ) .
Anytime that ’ s the case , we can turn to the quadratic formula .
The values p and q were the solutions to the quadratic equation x2−0.72x+0.17 = 0 .
The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Madeline Barnicle , was that this equation had no real solutions .
In other words , your adviser was mistaken , and you had an opportunity to show them up .
So maybe that was some good news after all .
Looking back , what were the possible probabilities of seeing zero , one or two signals ?
If we replaced the respective values of 0.45 , 0.38 and 0.17 with A , B and C and performed the same analysis , the resulting quadratic equation was x2+ ( 1+C−A ) x+C = @ @ @ @ @ @ @ any real roots , it had to have a nonnegative discriminant , which meant ( 1+C−A ) 2 ≥ 4C .
So only when that equation was true could you have attributed your data to two random sources .
It seemed like the case was closed .
But not so fast , said solver Daniel Taub , who read the puzzle with a different interpretation .
Rather than assume each source emitted exactly zero or one signal , Daniel assumed that each source emitted signals randomly at some average rate — essentially a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ when no interval produced three signals .
Solvers Reece Goiffon and Tyler James Burch ran with this interpretation , nevertheless proving that two Poisson processes can not possibly explain the frequencies listed in the puzzle .
Well , if your data didn ’ t come from random noise , the truth must still be out there .
Congratulations to 👏 Patrick Boylan 👏 of Alexandria , Virginia , winner of last week ’ s Riddler Classic .
Last week , you were building a large pen for your pet hamster .
To create @ @ @ @ @ @ @ posts , around which you were wrapping a sheet of fabric .
The sheet was 1 meter long — meaning the perimeter of your pen could be at most 1 meter — and weighed 1 kilogram , while each post weighed k kilograms .
You also wanted your pen to be lightweight and easy to move between rooms .
The total weight of the posts and the fabric you used could not exceed 1 kilogram .
For example , if k were 0.2 , then you could have made an equilateral triangle with @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 0.4 meters of the sheet would weigh 0.4 kilograms ) , or you could have made a square with perimeter of 0.2 meters .
However , you couldn ’ t have made a pentagon , since the weight of five posts would already hit the maximum and leave no room for the sheet .
You wanted to figure out the shape that enclosed the largest area possible .
What was the greatest value of k for which you should have used four posts rather than three ?
Three posts weighed 3k , which @ @ @ @ @ @ @ build your triangular pen .
Importantly , given a fixed perimeter , the triangle with the greatest area was an equilateral triangle ( like courtesy of Keith from the United Kingdom ) .
That meant each of the three sides was one-third of the total perimeter , or ( 1−3k ) /3 .
With a little trigonometry , you found that area of this triangle was then ( 1−3k ) 2√3/36 .
Meanwhile , four posts weighted 4k , leaving you with 1−4k meters for a quadrilateral pen .
Now , the shape @ @ @ @ @ @ @ with sides of length ( 1−4k ) /4 , and with area ( 1−4k ) 2/16 .
At this point , it was just a matter of finding the values of k for which the square ’ s area was greater than the triangle ’ s area .
The areas were equal when k was ( 3−24√3 ) / ( 12−64√3 ) , or approximately 0.08964 .
This was the answer — the greatest value of k for which four posts was a better choice than three posts .
For extra credit , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , six posts , seven posts and so on .
For which values of k did each number of posts provide the greatest area for your pen ?
To solve this generalized version of the polygon , a good first step was to derive a general formula for the area of polygon with N sides and perimeter 1−Nk ( since having N sides meant there would be N posts with a total weight of Nk ) .
Like the triangle and the quadrilateral , the N-gon with the maximum area was a regular @ @ @ @ @ @ @ angles .
First off , the central angle of a regular N-gon is 360/N ( for those of you who prefer to work in degrees rather than radians ) .
Then , using the fact that each of the N sides has a length of ( 1−Nk ) /N , the area of the triangle formed by the central angle and its corresponding side was half the side length — ( 1−Nk ) / ( 2N ) — times the altitude of the triangle — ( 1−Nk ) / ( 2N ) ·cot @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is the cotangent function .
But wait !
That was the area for just one of the triangles .
Since there were N of them , that meant the total area of the polygon was N times greater — N· ( 1−Nk ) / ( 2N ) · ( 1−Nk ) / ( 2N ) ·cot ( 180/N ) , or ( 1−Nk ) 2/ ( 4N ) ·cot ( 180/N ) .
Armed with this general formula for the area of an N-gon , all that remained was plugging in different values @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for each k , which N resulted in the greatest area .
Solver Mike Seifert plotted the graphs for the first few values of N , finding that as k decreased , the optimal number of posts went up incrementally .
So the extra credit was really asking for the points of intersection between the topmost curves from Mike ’ s graph .
The formula for these points was quite messy , but if you ’ d like to see it nevertheless , check out the write-ups of Laurent Lessard , who found @ @ @ @ @ @ @ David Zimmerman , who attempted to find a closed-form solution .
While the rodent itself may have been of a usual size , I hope you took comfort in the fact that at least the pen could be of an unusual size — depending on your value of k. Well , aren ’ t you lucky ?
There ’ s a whole book full of the best puzzles from this column and some never-before-seen head-scratchers .
It ’ s called “ The Riddler , ” and it ’ s in stores now !

Welcome to The Riddler. Every week, I offer up problems related to the things we hold dear around here: math, logic and probability. Two puzzles are presented each week: the Riddler Express for those of you who want something bite-size and the Riddler Classic for those of you in the slow-puzzle movement. Submit a correct answer for either, and you may get a shoutout in next week’s column. Please wait until Monday to publicly share your answers! If you need a hint or have a favorite puzzle collecting dust in your attic, find me on Twitter.
Riddler Express
Suppose you have a rope that goes all the way around the Earth’s equator, flat on the ground. (For the entirety of this puzzle, you should assume that the Earth is a perfect sphere with a radius of 6,378 kilometers.)
You want to lengthen the rope just the right amount so that it’s 1 meter off the ground all the way around the Earth. How much longer did you have to make the rope?
If you’ve never heard this puzzle before, the answer is surprisingly small — about 6.28 (i.e., 2𝜋) meters. Also, spoiler alert! (Darn, I was one sentence too late.)
Now, instead of tying the Earth up with rope, you’ve moved on to covering the globe with a giant sheet that lies flat on the ground. If you want the sheet to be 1 meter off the ground (just like the rope), by how much would you have to increase the area of your sheet?
Extra credit: What city, country, land mass or body of water has an area that is very close to your answer?
The solution to this Riddler Express can be found in the following week’s column.
Riddler Classic
From Duane Miller comes a riddle that is good for absolutely nothing:
Duane’s friend’s granddaughter claimed that she once won a game of War that lasted exactly 26 turns.
War is a two-player game in which a standard deck of cards is first shuffled and then divided into two piles with 26 cards each — one pile for each player. In every turn of the game, both players flip over and reveal the top card of their deck. The player whose card has a higher rank wins the turn and places both cards on the bottom of their pile. In the event that both cards have the same rank, the rules get a little more complicated, with each player flipping over additional cards to compare in a mini “War” showdown. Duane’s friend’s granddaughter said that for every turn of the game, she always drew the card of higher rank, with no mini “Wars.”
Assuming a deck is randomly shuffled before every game, how many games of War would you expect to play until you had a game that lasted just 26 turns with no “Wars,” like Duane’s friend’s granddaughter?
The solution to this Riddler Classic can be found in the following week’s column.
Solution to last week’s Riddler Express
Congratulations to 👏 Jacob Herlin 👏 of Denver, Colorado, winner of last week’s Riddler Express.
Last week, you were analyzing some unusual signals from deep space, measured at many regular intervals. You computed that you heard zero signals in 45 percent of the intervals, one signal in 38 percent of the intervals and two signals in the remaining 17 percent of the intervals.
Your research adviser suggested that it may just have been random fluctuations from two sources. Each source had some fixed probability of emitting a signal that you picked up, and together those sources generated the pattern in your data.
Was your adviser right? Was it possible for your data to have come from two random fluctuations?
At first, this may have sounded like an astronomy question, but as many solvers noted, it was a probability question in disguise. Since there were two random signals, we can assign probabilities to them and see what happens.
Suppose that, for any given interval, the first source emitted a signal with probability p, and the second source emitted a signal with probability q. If you made the reasonable assumption that the sources were independent, then the probability you heard two signals was the product of these probabilities, pq. Since you heard two signals 17 percent of the time, that meant pq = 0.17. But that still wasn’t enough information to solve the problem.
Next, most solvers opted to analyze the 45 percent of intervals that had zero signals (although looking at the one-signal intervals was equally valid). The probability an interval had zero signals was the probability that the first source didn’t emit a signal, 1−p, times the probability the second source didn’t emit a signal, 1−q. In other words, (1−p)(1−q) = 0.45. Expanding the expression on the left gave you 1−p−q+pq = 0.45. Substituting the value 0.17 for pq and rearranging a little resulted in the equation p+q = 0.72.
At this point, there was good news and bad news. The good news was that we were looking for two values, p and q, knowing both their sum (0.72) and their product (0.17). Anytime that’s the case, we can turn to the quadratic formula. The values p and q were the solutions to the quadratic equation x2−0.72x+0.17 = 0.
The bad news, as noted by solver Madeline Barnicle, was that this equation had no real solutions. In other words, your adviser was mistaken, and you had an opportunity to show them up. So maybe that was some good news after all.
Looking back, what were the possible probabilities of seeing zero, one or two signals? If we replaced the respective values of 0.45, 0.38 and 0.17 with A, B and C and performed the same analysis, the resulting quadratic equation was x2−(1+C−A)x+C = 0. For this equation to have any real roots, it had to have a nonnegative discriminant, which meant (1+C−A)2 ≥ 4C. So only when that equation was true could you have attributed your data to two random sources.
It seemed like the case was closed.
But not so fast, said solver Daniel Taub, who read the puzzle with a different interpretation. Rather than assume each source emitted exactly zero or one signal, Daniel assumed that each source emitted signals randomly at some average rate — essentially a Poisson process — and then was baffled when no interval produced three signals. Solvers Reece Goiffon and Tyler James Burch ran with this interpretation, nevertheless proving that two Poisson processes cannot possibly explain the frequencies listed in the puzzle.
Well, if your data didn’t come from random noise, the truth must still be out there.
Solution to last week’s Riddler Classic
Congratulations to 👏 Patrick Boylan 👏 of Alexandria, Virginia, winner of last week’s Riddler Classic.
Last week, you were building a large pen for your pet hamster. To create the pen, you had several vertical posts, around which you were wrapping a sheet of fabric. The sheet was 1 meter long — meaning the perimeter of your pen could be at most 1 meter — and weighed 1 kilogram, while each post weighed k kilograms.
You also wanted your pen to be lightweight and easy to move between rooms. The total weight of the posts and the fabric you used could not exceed 1 kilogram.
For example, if k were 0.2, then you could have made an equilateral triangle with a perimeter of 0.4 meters (since 0.4 meters of the sheet would weigh 0.4 kilograms), or you could have made a square with perimeter of 0.2 meters. However, you couldn’t have made a pentagon, since the weight of five posts would already hit the maximum and leave no room for the sheet.
You wanted to figure out the shape that enclosed the largest area possible. What was the greatest value of k for which you should have used four posts rather than three?
Three posts weighed 3k, which meant that you had 1−3k meters to build your triangular pen. Importantly, given a fixed perimeter, the triangle with the greatest area was an equilateral triangle (like courtesy of Keith from the United Kingdom). That meant each of the three sides was one-third of the total perimeter, or (1−3k)/3. With a little trigonometry, you found that area of this triangle was then (1−3k)2√3/36.
Meanwhile, four posts weighted 4k, leaving you with 1−4k meters for a quadrilateral pen. Now, the shape that maximized the area was a square with sides of length (1−4k)/4, and with area (1−4k)2/16.
At this point, it was just a matter of finding the values of k for which the square’s area was greater than the triangle’s area. The areas were equal when k was (3−24√3)/(12−64√3), or approximately 0.08964. This was the answer — the greatest value of k for which four posts was a better choice than three posts.
For extra credit, you looked at pens with five posts, six posts, seven posts and so on. For which values of k did each number of posts provide the greatest area for your pen?
To solve this generalized version of the polygon, a good first step was to derive a general formula for the area of polygon with N sides and perimeter 1−Nk (since having N sides meant there would be N posts with a total weight of Nk). Like the triangle and the quadrilateral, the N-gon with the maximum area was a regular N-gon, with equal side lengths and angles.
First off, the central angle of a regular N-gon is 360/N (for those of you who prefer to work in degrees rather than radians). Then, using the fact that each of the N sides has a length of (1−Nk)/N, the area of the triangle formed by the central angle and its corresponding side was half the side length — (1−Nk)/(2N) — times the altitude of the triangle — (1−Nk)/(2N)·cot(180/N). Yes, that is the cotangent function.
But wait! That was the area for just one of the triangles. Since there were N of them, that meant the total area of the polygon was N times greater — N·(1−Nk)/(2N)·(1−Nk)/(2N)·cot(180/N), or (1−Nk)2/(4N)·cot(180/N).
Armed with this general formula for the area of an N-gon, all that remained was plugging in different values of N and k and seeing, for each k, which N resulted in the greatest area. Solver Mike Seifert plotted the graphs for the first few values of N, finding that as k decreased, the optimal number of posts went up incrementally.
So the extra credit was really asking for the points of intersection between the topmost curves from Mike’s graph. The formula for these points was quite messy, but if you’d like to see it nevertheless, check out the write-ups of Laurent Lessard, who found a condition on these values, and David Zimmerman, who attempted to find a closed-form solution.
While the rodent itself may have been of a usual size, I hope you took comfort in the fact that at least the pen could be of an unusual size — depending on your value of k.
Want more riddles?
Well, aren’t you lucky? There’s a whole book full of the best puzzles from this column and some never-before-seen head-scratchers. It’s called “The Riddler,” and it’s in stores now!
Want to submit a riddle?
Email Zach Wissner-Gross at riddlercolumn@gmail.com


fivethirthyeight--2020-08-28--Biden’s Voters Appear Far More Likely To Vote By Mail Than Trump’s. That Could Make For A Weird Elec

Biden’s Voters Appear Far More Likely To Vote By Mail Than Trump’s. That Could Make For A Weird Election Night.

Welcome to Pollapalooza , our weekly polling roundup .
Because of the coronavirus pandemic , many states have taken steps to make it easier for people to vote by mail .
( We ’ re tracking them all here . )
Absentee ballots have constituted a majority of the votes cast in most primaries since the pandemic struck , and polling suggests a record number of people will vote by mail in the general election as well .
However , amid saturation coverage of problems with the U.S .
Postal Service , new polling from CNBC/Change Research suggests that the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ mail has ticked down .
In early August , 38 percent of voters in six battleground states said they planned to vote by mail .
But in the pollster ’ s just-released Aug. 21-23 poll , the number of voters in those states saying they planned to vote by mail was down to 33 percent .
Among all voters nationwide , the share planning to vote by mail went from 36 percent to 33 percent — although that drop was within the poll ’ s margin of error .
Other recent polls agree @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to vote by mail this year .
But not all voters plan to do so in equal numbers .
Democrats are much likelier than Republicans to say they will vote by mail — which makes sense given that Democrats also tend to be more supportive of mail voting .
( By contrast , the Republican standard bearer , President Trump , has repeatedly and inaccurately assailed mail voting as ripe for fraud . )
According to a recent NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll , 30 percent of registered voters said they planned to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ said they planned to vote in person on Election Day .
But among Trump supporters , only 11 percent said they planned to vote by mail , and 66 percent said they planned to vote in person on Election Day .
Among Joe Biden backers , 47 percent said they planned to vote by mail , while only 26 percent said they planned to vote in person on Election Day .
( The share who said they would vote early in person was consistently 20-21 percent among all three groups : Trump supporters @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ) If this holds , it would mean votes cast on Election Day would skew heavily toward Trump , and votes cast by mail would skew heavily toward Biden .
This has serious implications for … well , democracy .
First , Trump could argue the mail ballots ( which , remember , could account for most of Biden ’ s votes ) were fraudulent and thus should not be counted .
Although it ’ s unlikely they ’ d actually be thrown out , this would damage the credibility of the election @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Second , it could mean the first votes counted on election night will be disproportionately good for Trump , who might claim victory based on incomplete returns .
It might not be until days later , after a good chunk of the Democratic-leaning mail vote is counted , that Biden pulls ahead .
Let ’ s do a quick-and-dirty exercise to show what I mean .
In the NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll overall , Biden led Trump by 9 percentage points among registered voters .
But Biden led Trump by 63 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ planned to vote by mail , and Trump led Biden by 33 points among voters who planned to vote in person on Election Day .
If this kind of partisan split occurred in every state , Biden would win the mail vote in all 50 states — from Alabama to Wyoming — and Trump would win the Election Day vote in all 50 .
To be clear , I don ’ t expect Trump to be leading in all 50 states when the first results are reported on Nov. 3 .
For one @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Day and mail votes will surely vary from state to state ; I don ’ t literally think Trump will win the Election Day vote in every state , nor Biden the mail vote in every one .
For another , Election Day votes aren ’ t the only results we ’ ll get on election night : We ’ ll also get early in-person votes in states that have early voting , which should make things look better for Biden .
( Biden led Trump by 12 points among early in-person voters @ @ @ @ @ @ @ . )
And some mail votes will probably be counted by the time we go to bed as well .
Nevertheless , the gap between the Election Day and mail vote could be huge this year , which should serve as a stark reminder not to overreact to election-night returns .
We could — not necessarily will , but could — have absurd initial results like Trump winning Massachusetts or Illinois .
That would not mean he has won the election ; it takes days , sometimes even weeks , to count every @ @ @ @ @ @ @ know the identity of the next president until mid-November .
• Although the Democratic National Convention ’ s TV ratings were lower than they were in 2016 , 50 percent of Americans told ABC News/Ipsos that they watched at least a little of the 2020 DNC .
Those who did were overwhelmingly satisfied with what they saw : 72 percent approved of what Democrats said and did at the convention , while just 26 percent disapproved .
• Last week , Trump said he wanted to send law enforcement officials to polling places @ @ @ @ @ @ @ not clear he has the authority to do so .
Although his statement disturbed voting watchdog groups , the American public had mixed feelings about it .
According to YouGov , 37 percent said this move would keep people from voting , 22 percent said it would protect against voter fraud and 23 percent said it would have no effect on voting .
The remaining 19 percent didn ’ t know .
• According to NBC News/SurveyMonkey , 48 percent of parents said their child ’ s schooling will be conducted entirely online @ @ @ @ @ @ @ child will attend school in person , while 25 percent said their child will have a mix of in-person and virtual schooling .
The number of parents reporting their child ’ s schooling will be fully online has increased by 7 percentage points since early August .
• Trump has two home states : New York , where he was born and rose to fame , and Florida , where he now claims residency .
But a new survey from Public Policy Polling found that neither state wants to claim him .
By @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , New Yorkers want Trump to claim Florida as his home state , but Floridians want him to claim New York 47 percent to 37 percent .
• On Tuesday , state Sen. Stephanie Bice won the Republican runoff to take on Democratic Rep. Kendra Horn in Oklahoma ’ s 5th District — perhaps the most vulnerable Democratic-held congressional seat in the nation .
However , shortly after Bice ’ s win , the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee released a GQR Research poll showing Horn at 51 percent and Bice at 46 percent @ @ @ @ @ @ @ be a tad too optimistic for the side releasing them , the Oklahoma 5th looks like a toss-up race .
According to FiveThirtyEight ’ s presidential approval tracker , 42.2 percent of Americans approve of the job Trump is doing as president , while 54.3 percent disapprove ( a net approval rating of -12.1 points ) .
At this time last week , 41.8 percent approved and 54.2 percent disapproved ( a net approval rating of -12.4 points ) .
One month ago , Trump had an approval rating of 40.2 percent and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for a net approval rating of -15.6 points .
In our average of polls of the generic congressional ballot , Democrats currently lead by 7.3 percentage points ( 48.3 percent to 41.0 percent ) .
A week ago , Democrats led Republicans by 7.4 points ( 48.4 percent to 41.0 percent ) .
At this time last month , voters preferred Democrats by 8.5 points ( 49.5 percent to 41.0 percent ) .
Make sure to check out FiveThirtyEight ’ s 2020 presidential forecast , as well as all the polls we ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ elections .

Welcome to Pollapalooza, our weekly polling roundup.
Poll(s) of the fortnight
Because of the coronavirus pandemic, many states have taken steps to make it easier for people to vote by mail. (We’re tracking them all here.) Absentee ballots have constituted a majority of the votes cast in most primaries since the pandemic struck, and polling suggests a record number of people will vote by mail in the general election as well.
However, amid saturation coverage of problems with the U.S. Postal Service, new polling from CNBC/Change Research suggests that the number of Americans planning to vote by mail has ticked down. In early August, 38 percent of voters in six battleground states said they planned to vote by mail. But in the pollster’s just-released Aug. 21-23 poll, the number of voters in those states saying they planned to vote by mail was down to 33 percent. Among all voters nationwide, the share planning to vote by mail went from 36 percent to 33 percent — although that drop was within the poll’s margin of error.
Other recent polls agree that about a third of voters intend to vote by mail this year. But not all voters plan to do so in equal numbers. Democrats are much likelier than Republicans to say they will vote by mail — which makes sense given that Democrats also tend to be more supportive of mail voting. (By contrast, the Republican standard bearer, President Trump, has repeatedly and inaccurately assailed mail voting as ripe for fraud.)
According to a recent NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll, 30 percent of registered voters said they planned to vote by mail, and 43 percent said they planned to vote in person on Election Day. But among Trump supporters, only 11 percent said they planned to vote by mail, and 66 percent said they planned to vote in person on Election Day. Among Joe Biden backers, 47 percent said they planned to vote by mail, while only 26 percent said they planned to vote in person on Election Day. (The share who said they would vote early in person was consistently 20-21 percent among all three groups: Trump supporters, Biden supporters and voters overall.)
If this holds, it would mean votes cast on Election Day would skew heavily toward Trump, and votes cast by mail would skew heavily toward Biden. This has serious implications for … well, democracy. First, Trump could argue the mail ballots (which, remember, could account for most of Biden’s votes) were fraudulent and thus should not be counted. Although it’s unlikely they’d actually be thrown out, this would damage the credibility of the election in the eyes of many Trump supporters. Second, it could mean the first votes counted on election night will be disproportionately good for Trump, who might claim victory based on incomplete returns. It might not be until days later, after a good chunk of the Democratic-leaning mail vote is counted, that Biden pulls ahead.
Let’s do a quick-and-dirty exercise to show what I mean. In the NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll overall, Biden led Trump by 9 percentage points among registered voters. But Biden led Trump by 63 points (!) among voters who planned to vote by mail, and Trump led Biden by 33 points among voters who planned to vote in person on Election Day. If this kind of partisan split occurred in every state, Biden would win the mail vote in all 50 states — from Alabama to Wyoming — and Trump would win the Election Day vote in all 50.
To be clear, I don’t expect Trump to be leading in all 50 states when the first results are reported on Nov. 3. For one thing, the partisan split between Election Day and mail votes will surely vary from state to state; I don’t literally think Trump will win the Election Day vote in every state, nor Biden the mail vote in every one. For another, Election Day votes aren’t the only results we’ll get on election night: We’ll also get early in-person votes in states that have early voting, which should make things look better for Biden. (Biden led Trump by 12 points among early in-person voters in the NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll.) And some mail votes will probably be counted by the time we go to bed as well.
Nevertheless, the gap between the Election Day and mail vote could be huge this year, which should serve as a stark reminder not to overreact to election-night returns. We could — not necessarily will, but could — have absurd initial results like Trump winning Massachusetts or Illinois. That would not mean he has won the election; it takes days, sometimes even weeks, to count every mail ballot, so we may not know the identity of the next president until mid-November.
Other polling bites
Although the Democratic National Convention’s TV ratings were lower than they were in 2016, 50 percent of Americans told ABC News/Ipsos that they watched at least a little of the 2020 DNC. Those who did were overwhelmingly satisfied with what they saw: 72 percent approved of what Democrats said and did at the convention, while just 26 percent disapproved.
Last week, Trump said he wanted to send law enforcement officials to polling places this fall, although it’s not clear he has the authority to do so. Although his statement disturbed voting watchdog groups, the American public had mixed feelings about it. According to YouGov, 37 percent said this move would keep people from voting, 22 percent said it would protect against voter fraud and 23 percent said it would have no effect on voting. The remaining 19 percent didn’t know.
According to NBC News/SurveyMonkey, 48 percent of parents said their child’s schooling will be conducted entirely online this fall; 17 percent said their child will attend school in person, while 25 percent said their child will have a mix of in-person and virtual schooling. The number of parents reporting their child’s schooling will be fully online has increased by 7 percentage points since early August.
Trump has two home states: New York, where he was born and rose to fame, and Florida, where he now claims residency. But a new survey from Public Policy Polling found that neither state wants to claim him. By a 53 percent to 22 percent margin, New Yorkers want Trump to claim Florida as his home state, but Floridians want him to claim New York 47 percent to 37 percent.
On Tuesday, state Sen. Stephanie Bice won the Republican runoff to take on Democratic Rep. Kendra Horn in Oklahoma’s 5th District — perhaps the most vulnerable Democratic-held congressional seat in the nation. However, shortly after Bice’s win, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee released a GQR Research poll showing Horn at 51 percent and Bice at 46 percent. Given that internal polls tend to be a tad too optimistic for the side releasing them, the Oklahoma 5th looks like a toss-up race.
Trump approval
According to FiveThirtyEight’s presidential approval tracker, 42.2 percent of Americans approve of the job Trump is doing as president, while 54.3 percent disapprove (a net approval rating of -12.1 points). At this time last week, 41.8 percent approved and 54.2 percent disapproved (a net approval rating of -12.4 points). One month ago, Trump had an approval rating of 40.2 percent and a disapproval rating of 55.8 percent, for a net approval rating of -15.6 points.
Generic ballot
In our average of polls of the generic congressional ballot, Democrats currently lead by 7.3 percentage points (48.3 percent to 41.0 percent). A week ago, Democrats led Republicans by 7.4 points (48.4 percent to 41.0 percent). At this time last month, voters preferred Democrats by 8.5 points (49.5 percent to 41.0 percent).
Make sure to check out FiveThirtyEight’s 2020 presidential forecast, as well as all the polls we’ve been collecting ahead of the 2020 elections.


fivethirthyeight--2020-08-28--What Went Down During President Trump’s Closing Speech At The RNC

What Went Down During President Trump ’ s Closing Speech At The RNC


fivethirthyeight--2020-08-28--Just Because We Can Get Reinfected With COVID-19 Doesn’t Mean We Can’t Beat It

On this week ’ s episode of PODCAST-19 , FiveThirtyEight ’ s coronavirus podcast , we explore what it means @ @ @ @ @ with COVID-19 , and how we can still develop immunity to the disease .
We @ @ @ @ @ to masks in the Netherlands is so much more lax than in parts of the @ @ @ @ @ has done a better job of suppressing COVID-19 .
Don ’ t want to miss @ @ @ @ @ FiveThirtyEight ’ s weekly look at what we know — and what we know we @ @ @ @ @ about COVID-19 ?
Subscribe on your favorite podcasting app .
For example , here ’ @ @ @ @ @ on Apple Podcasts and Spotify .

On this week’s episode of PODCAST-19, FiveThirtyEight’s coronavirus podcast, we explore what it means that people can get reinfected with COVID-19, and how we can still develop immunity to the disease. We also explore why the approach to masks in the Netherlands is so much more lax than in parts of the U.S., even though Holland has done a better job of suppressing COVID-19.
Don’t want to miss an episode of PODCAST-19, FiveThirtyEight’s weekly look at what we know — and what we know we don’t know — about COVID-19? Subscribe on your favorite podcasting app. For example, here’s where to do it on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.


fivethirthyeight--2020-08-28--What Happened In The NBA This Week?

What Happened In The NBA This Week?

sara.ziegler ( Sara Ziegler , sports editor ) : It ’ s been an incredible couple of days in the sports world , with athletes using their voices in ways that are nearly unprecedented .
The NBA is on pause again tonight , though games in the playoff bubble will resume tomorrow .
Before games start up again , though , we wanted to stop and talk about what this strike has meant , what it might accomplish going forward and how the players are changing the conversation .
What did you all make of Wednesday ’ s strike ?
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ ) : I had already seen the reports about the Celtics and Raptors contemplating whether to call off their game Thursday .
But then Milwaukee beat everyone to the punch by doing it themselves .
And I probably should have seen that possibility there , given the Bucks ’ proximity to the Jacob Blake shooting , and the vocal nature of their players concerning police brutality .
dubin ( Jared Dubin , FiveThirtyEight contributor ) : I think for me the biggest thing was the domino effect the Bucks ’ decision not to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the NBA , but in other sports .
WNBA players have been leading on social justice issues for a while now , and once the NBA players decided not to play , it made sense that WNBA players would follow suit .
But seeing players from MLB , the NHL and even the NFL take similar stands was notable .
dre.waters ( Andres Waters , FiveThirtyEight contributor ) : The snowball of everything was what really caught me by surprise too .
I understood the NBA as a whole being active and speaking @ @ @ @ @ @ @ normal .
But , when I saw the MLB and NHL was when I realized just how big this could get .
chris.herring : Yeah .
I was kind of stunned when the reports on Wednesday night were coming out about the player meetings .
At one point , LeBron James walked out , and it briefly looked like the season might be over .
I ’ m still thinking about what kind of statement that would have sent , if that had been the case .
I ’ ll wonder for a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ or how things might have been different .
tchow ( Tony Chow , video producer ) : I remembered it took a moment to fully realize what was happening .
Seeing the images on Twitter of the empty courts was pretty jarring at first , and you could almost feel a collective sense of “ holy shit , this is big.
” dubin : Right .
And at first , it just seemed to me like George Hill was going to sit out .
He ’ d said earlier in the week that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Orlando in the first place , and then he was listed as inactive for the game .
Oh , and before we get into everything else : The coverage on NBATV was absolutely riveting .
I thought Bob Fitzgerald and especially Jim Jackson did a remarkable job , and then Sam Mitchell , Chris Webber and more people kept rotating in and out and making it even better .
chris.herring : I found myself peeling away from all the coverage at times .
Maybe that ’ s weird .
But it feels weird @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on display for some folks to realize how serious the subject of police brutality — and the lack of justice when it happens — is in the Black community .
The pandemic has magnified it for whatever reason , and the players protesting did , too .
But it shouldn ’ t take all this to draw attention to it .
I ’ m glad the attention is there now , though .
dre.waters : The craziest part to me was when I saw Elle Duncan ’ s tweet about the only other @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in 1961 .
And seeing this boycott is about the same issue of racial injustice really hurt .
sara.ziegler : That ’ s a great point , Dre .
Black athletes are still having to fight the same fights , 60 years later .
dre.waters : I guess I ’ m pretty young … so I had never heard much about the Celtics boycott .
But as soon as I saw the tweet , my only thought was WTF… dubin : It ’ s definitely uncomfortable to watch people process such raw pain @ @ @ @ @ @ @ take something like that to raise awareness for an issue that ’ s been so glaringly obvious for so long , but if it did make even one person more aware and wake them up to how much it affects Black people ( and specifically young Black men like the players are and the former-player commentators once were ) , I feel like that ’ s good .
What stuck out to me , too , was how proud it seemed like the former players were of the current players for taking this @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of what C-Webb said , and you ’ ve seen guys like Bill Russell say the same thing on Twitter and elsewhere since .
Considering how often former-player commentators rag on today ’ s game and some of the players , it was pretty striking .
sara.ziegler : Kenny Smith walking off the TNT set was also very moving , to me .
I confess that I was a little surprised that they did decide to start playing again — I thought this was it for the season .
Did that surprise you @ @ @ @ @ @ @ by Wednesday night , after hearing those reports about the meetings Chris mentioned , that the season was done .
It was difficult to see how they would continue and get back on the court after that .
dubin : It didn ’ t help that the reports about the meetings were conflicting , depending on whose timeline you were following .
I think that contributed to making it seem more like the season was over .
dre.waters : The reports about the Lakers and Clippers voting not to continue is when I @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
sara.ziegler : And LeBron !
Seems like it would be hard to keep going if your biggest star doesn ’ t want to play .
dubin : Right .
When we heard LeBron walked out of the meeting , I thought it was done .
But then within like a half-hour , we heard that the votes from the Lakers and Clippers were more of an informal poll .
Or something .
It was all a lot , obviously .
dre.waters : Who could imagine the playoffs without LeBron and two of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ dubin : Plus , the Bucks were the first team to not take the court , and the day before , it was the Raptors ’ Fred VanVleet talking about how the players need to “ put our nuts on the line ” to get something instead of just T-shirts and slogans .
Those might be the four most likely teams to win the title .
Their willingness to sacrifice so much for real change was powerful .
chris.herring : Yeah .
The season would have been over — there would ’ ve @ @ @ @ @ @ @ sara.ziegler : How strange will it be on Saturday to just go back to playing the games ?
I don ’ t really want to “ go back to normal ” right now .
chris.herring : It probably depends on who you ’ re asking .
It might be a bit strange for some of the players .
I truly wonder how someone like George Hill — who ’ s already said he doesn ’ t know why they went down to Florida in light of some of this stuff happening — feels @ @ @ @ @ @ @ think them coming back after a couple days will feel normal to a huge number of fans .
And that , in some ways , is the problem .
It ’ s certainly an enormous part of the challenge , with the media , too : Instead of focusing on issues , we inevitably shift our attention back to the games .
It ’ s why stuff seemed to get through so much more at the beginning of the pandemic , IMO : There weren ’ t other things like sports to distract @ @ @ @ @ @ @ this stuff is .
dubin : I think that for the teams that make the second round , having their families be able to come down within a few days could be a source of relief .
Not necessarily to distract from what they want to accomplish , but being away from their families when another shooting happened has to have played a role in so many guys just saying enough is enough and we don ’ t want to be a distraction right now .
chris.herring : Amen to that part .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ supposed to be able to join them on Monday .
tchow : I can ’ t imagine the story of what happened Wednesday night and why it happened will go away anytime soon ?
I ’ m sure there are fans or media personnel who can ’ t wait to go back to covering Luka Dončić triple-doubles and James Harden highlights and all that .
But it ’ s hard to see a world in which the media at large goes back to business as usual and covering these playoffs without constantly reminding @ @ @ @ @ @ @ dre.waters : I ’ m really interested to see how they go about covering this going forward .
Much like we ’ ve talked about all through the quarantine , what is the new “ normal ” ?
tchow : Or maybe I ’ ll reword that .
It will say a lot about the U.S. if , by this time next week , we ’ re only reading about the Lakers ’ chances of making the Finals or if Russell Westbrook will return to play .
dre.waters : They mentioned in the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ use advertising spots to promote civic engagement , etc .
What does that actually look like ?
dubin : Also , does that actually do anything ?
I saw Diana Moskovitz say that the NFL has been doing that for a few years , and I didn ’ t even know about it .
Seems … not effective .
chris.herring : I keep saying how conflicted I feel about all of this in one sense : The decision to stop playing — not just for a day , but for the rest of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
It would have been the biggest statement you could possibly make .
I think LeBron probably could have triggered something along those lines by himself .
I also think it would have been incredibly risky .
Not every player could afford to do that .
It could have triggered a lockout .
But I also imagine it would have helped the players get a seat at certain tables and afforded them more power to ask for more action , or more money for certain things to tackle some of these highly systemic @ @ @ @ @ @ @ hearing that , one day later , they ’ d agreed to go back to play was similar to how I felt when Colin Kaepernick settled his suit with the NFL .
No sense of disappointment on my part whatsoever .
Because I know how much it must be to bear that weight on their shoulders .
And it ’ s personal to their lives , as far as money and the ridicule they face by staying in that moment .
But I will always be curious about whether more could have been @ @ @ @ @ @ @ with it and ended the season .
We ’ ll never know .
sara.ziegler : I completely agree with you , Chris .
I wish we could know what response would have had the best outcome .
tchow : What I would give to be in these meetings to learn how much it took for the players to agree to come back to play .
Because this is such a drastic statement , I can ’ t imagine the players would agree without some reluctance .
With the initiatives and commitments they announced @ @ @ @ @ @ @ players think this is enough .
Is it a good enough start ?
I have so many questions .
dubin : There has been some positive movement already : That ’ s explicitly what the Bucks asked for in their statement .
dubin : But it ’ s something a lot of people have said the past few days : For all this to be on the shoulders of NBA players is asking way too much of them .
It ’ s so much responsibility and so many different competing and possibly conflicting @ @ @ @ @ @ @ they did is pretty incredible .
That part is so important : It ’ s not their responsibility .
dubin : Like , a ) it should not have to fall to Black people to fix systemic racism ; b ) it should not have to fall to young people to fix systemic racism ; and c ) it should not have to fall to young , Black people who are separated from their families at such a fraught time to fix systemic racism or anything else , really .
chris.herring : It @ @ @ @ @ @ @ they ’ ve done so much to shine a light on all this stuff , yet people still expect more of them , as if it ’ s not people that look like them that are being shot and disproportionately killed while unarmed .
That they ’ d play in the middle of a pandemic that ’ s disproportionately infecting and killing off their community , and play in a bubble away from their families .
That a number of them have started organizations to support voting reform .
That a number have @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and people in their cities .
And yet people will hit them with a “ What about China ?
” as if the players don ’ t actually care about the stuff in their backyards and their own communities .
dubin : Definitely agree with that .
But also , it ’ s possible for people within the NBA ( or outside it ) to have been wrong on things relating to China and 100 percent right about this .
tchow : From the statements we ’ ve seen both written and those @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to the media , it feels like this action comes more from just exasperation and frustration .
They are TIRED .
And I think that sentiment can be shared by a lot of Americans right now .
dubin : It ’ s exhausting and frustrating to me , and I ’ m a white man who doesn ’ t have to physically fear for my life in every interaction I have with police .
I can ’ t imagine how it is for people who have to live that reality every day .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ of people being held to a standard of caring about something that the critics don ’ t hold themselves to — especially when the players appear to be taking actionable steps on so many other human rights issues that are happening in this country .
dubin : Also tired of people pretending that because ( some ) NBA players make hundreds of millions of dollars , these things don ’ t affect them .
dubin : Also , every player in the NBA has family and friends who are not in the NBA @ @ @ @ @ @ @ NBA from birth .
They had to grow up into the people they are now .
So , they didn ’ t always have this fame or money or influence .
And then something that doesn ’ t get talked about a lot : most NBA players are , comparatively speaking , HUGE compared to the rest of the population .
In a world in which police can exaggerate the size of Black men to justify being scared and then using force , already being really , really big could make things even @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Yeah , one thing I ’ ve noticed recently is the number of NBA players who are sharing NEW stories about the times they ’ ve been profiled by the police and a lot of their interviews to the media have acknowledged that “ when I leave the court , I ’ m still Black ” sentiment .
dre.waters : Watching all the coverage of this should be a reminder of that .
How many Black commentators and former players have we seen still mention that they have the same talks with their @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Black family has to have ?
sara.ziegler : I hope that white fans are listening to that — and really hearing it .
chris.herring : I ’ m cynical .
But I hope at some point I ’ m wrong for being that way .

sara.ziegler (Sara Ziegler, sports editor): It’s been an incredible couple of days in the sports world, with athletes using their voices in ways that are nearly unprecedented. The NBA is on pause again tonight, though games in the playoff bubble will resume tomorrow. Before games start up again, though, we wanted to stop and talk about what this strike has meant, what it might accomplish going forward and how the players are changing the conversation.
What did you all make of Wednesday’s strike?
chris.herring (Chris Herring, senior sportswriter): I had already seen the reports about the Celtics and Raptors contemplating whether to call off their game Thursday. But then Milwaukee beat everyone to the punch by doing it themselves. And I probably should have seen that possibility there, given the Bucks’ proximity to the Jacob Blake shooting, and the vocal nature of their players concerning police brutality.
dubin (Jared Dubin, FiveThirtyEight contributor): I think for me the biggest thing was the domino effect the Bucks’ decision not to take the court had not just in the NBA, but in other sports. WNBA players have been leading on social justice issues for a while now, and once the NBA players decided not to play, it made sense that WNBA players would follow suit. But seeing players from MLB, the NHL and even the NFL take similar stands was notable.
dre.waters (Andres Waters, FiveThirtyEight contributor): The snowball of everything was what really caught me by surprise too.
I understood the NBA as a whole being active and speaking up, because that’s become normal. But, when I saw the MLB and NHL was when I realized just how big this could get.
chris.herring: Yeah. I was kind of stunned when the reports on Wednesday night were coming out about the player meetings. At one point, LeBron James walked out, and it briefly looked like the season might be over. I’m still thinking about what kind of statement that would have sent, if that had been the case.
I’ll wonder for a while what that would have done, or how things might have been different.
tchow (Tony Chow, video producer): I remembered it took a moment to fully realize what was happening. Seeing the images on Twitter of the empty courts was pretty jarring at first, and you could almost feel a collective sense of “holy shit, this is big.”
dubin: Right. And at first, it just seemed to me like George Hill was going to sit out. He’d said earlier in the week that the players should never have come to Orlando in the first place, and then he was listed as inactive for the game.
Oh, and before we get into everything else: The coverage on NBATV was absolutely riveting. I thought Bob Fitzgerald and especially Jim Jackson did a remarkable job, and then Sam Mitchell, Chris Webber and more people kept rotating in and out and making it even better.
chris.herring: I found myself peeling away from all the coverage at times. Maybe that’s weird. But it feels weird that people have to put their pain on display for some folks to realize how serious the subject of police brutality — and the lack of justice when it happens — is in the Black community.
The pandemic has magnified it for whatever reason, and the players protesting did, too. But it shouldn’t take all this to draw attention to it. I’m glad the attention is there now, though.
dre.waters: The craziest part to me was when I saw Elle Duncan’s tweet about the only other boycott of a game in the NBA in 1961.
And seeing this boycott is about the same issue of racial injustice really hurt.
sara.ziegler: That’s a great point, Dre. Black athletes are still having to fight the same fights, 60 years later.
dre.waters: I guess I’m pretty young … so I had never heard much about the Celtics boycott. But as soon as I saw the tweet, my only thought was WTF…
dubin: It’s definitely uncomfortable to watch people process such raw pain on TV. It shouldn’t take something like that to raise awareness for an issue that’s been so glaringly obvious for so long, but if it did make even one person more aware and wake them up to how much it affects Black people (and specifically young Black men like the players are and the former-player commentators once were), I feel like that’s good.
What stuck out to me, too, was how proud it seemed like the former players were of the current players for taking this stand. That was a big part of what C-Webb said, and you’ve seen guys like Bill Russell say the same thing on Twitter and elsewhere since. Considering how often former-player commentators rag on today’s game and some of the players, it was pretty striking.
sara.ziegler: Kenny Smith walking off the TNT set was also very moving, to me.
I confess that I was a little surprised that they did decide to start playing again — I thought this was it for the season. Did that surprise you guys?
tchow: I definitely thought by Wednesday night, after hearing those reports about the meetings Chris mentioned, that the season was done. It was difficult to see how they would continue and get back on the court after that.
dubin: It didn’t help that the reports about the meetings were conflicting, depending on whose timeline you were following. I think that contributed to making it seem more like the season was over.
dre.waters: The reports about the Lakers and Clippers voting not to continue is when I really thought it was over, honestly.
sara.ziegler: And LeBron! Seems like it would be hard to keep going if your biggest star doesn’t want to play.
dubin: Right. When we heard LeBron walked out of the meeting, I thought it was done. But then within like a half-hour, we heard that the votes from the Lakers and Clippers were more of an informal poll. Or something. It was all a lot, obviously.
dre.waters: Who could imagine the playoffs without LeBron and two of the favorites to win the championship?
dubin: Plus, the Bucks were the first team to not take the court, and the day before, it was the Raptors’ Fred VanVleet talking about how the players need to “put our nuts on the line” to get something instead of just T-shirts and slogans. Those might be the four most likely teams to win the title. Their willingness to sacrifice so much for real change was powerful.
chris.herring: Yeah. The season would have been over — there would’ve been no coming back from that.
sara.ziegler: How strange will it be on Saturday to just go back to playing the games? I don’t really want to “go back to normal” right now.
chris.herring: It probably depends on who you’re asking. It might be a bit strange for some of the players. I truly wonder how someone like George Hill — who’s already said he doesn’t know why they went down to Florida in light of some of this stuff happening — feels at a time like this.
I think them coming back after a couple days will feel normal to a huge number of fans. And that, in some ways, is the problem. It’s certainly an enormous part of the challenge, with the media, too: Instead of focusing on issues, we inevitably shift our attention back to the games. It’s why stuff seemed to get through so much more at the beginning of the pandemic, IMO: There weren’t other things like sports to distract us from the reality of how shameful this stuff is.
dubin: I think that for the teams that make the second round, having their families be able to come down within a few days could be a source of relief. Not necessarily to distract from what they want to accomplish, but being away from their families when another shooting happened has to have played a role in so many guys just saying enough is enough and we don’t want to be a distraction right now.
chris.herring: Amen to that part. The family members who are quarantined are supposed to be able to join them on Monday.
tchow: I can’t imagine the story of what happened Wednesday night and why it happened will go away anytime soon? I’m sure there are fans or media personnel who can’t wait to go back to covering Luka Dončić triple-doubles and James Harden highlights and all that. But it’s hard to see a world in which the media at large goes back to business as usual and covering these playoffs without constantly reminding fans of what happened this week.
dre.waters: I’m really interested to see how they go about covering this going forward. Much like we’ve talked about all through the quarantine, what is the new “normal”?
tchow: Or maybe I’ll reword that. It will say a lot about the U.S. if, by this time next week, we’re only reading about the Lakers’ chances of making the Finals or if Russell Westbrook will return to play.
dre.waters: They mentioned in the statement that the league and networks will use advertising spots to promote civic engagement, etc. What does that actually look like?
dubin: Also, does that actually do anything? I saw Diana Moskovitz say that the NFL has been doing that for a few years, and I didn’t even know about it. Seems … not effective.
chris.herring: I keep saying how conflicted I feel about all of this in one sense: The decision to stop playing — not just for a day, but for the rest of the season — would have been monumental. It would have been the biggest statement you could possibly make. I think LeBron probably could have triggered something along those lines by himself.
I also think it would have been incredibly risky. Not every player could afford to do that. It could have triggered a lockout. But I also imagine it would have helped the players get a seat at certain tables and afforded them more power to ask for more action, or more money for certain things to tackle some of these highly systemic problems.
The feeling I had after hearing that, one day later, they’d agreed to go back to play was similar to how I felt when Colin Kaepernick settled his suit with the NFL.
No sense of disappointment on my part whatsoever. Because I know how much it must be to bear that weight on their shoulders. And it’s personal to their lives, as far as money and the ridicule they face by staying in that moment. But I will always be curious about whether more could have been achieved had they gone all the way with it and ended the season. We’ll never know.
sara.ziegler: I completely agree with you, Chris. I wish we could know what response would have had the best outcome.
tchow: What I would give to be in these meetings to learn how much it took for the players to agree to come back to play. Because this is such a drastic statement, I can’t imagine the players would agree without some reluctance. With the initiatives and commitments they announced, I want to know if the players think this is enough. Is it a good enough start? I have so many questions.
dubin: There has been some positive movement already:
Breaking: Senate Majority Leader @SenFitzgerald says the state Senate will convene Monday for the special legislation session called for by @GovEvers. — Molly Beck (@MollyBeck) August 28, 2020
That’s explicitly what the Bucks asked for in their statement.
sara.ziegler: Oh, wow.
dubin: But it’s something a lot of people have said the past few days: For all this to be on the shoulders of NBA players is asking way too much of them. It’s so much responsibility and so many different competing and possibly conflicting motivations. Even handling it the way they did is pretty incredible.
chris.herring: Absolutely, Jared.
That part is so important: It’s not their responsibility.
dubin: Like, a) it should not have to fall to Black people to fix systemic racism; b) it should not have to fall to young people to fix systemic racism; and c) it should not have to fall to young, Black people who are separated from their families at such a fraught time to fix systemic racism or anything else, really.
chris.herring: It’s so bizarre to me that they’ve done so much to shine a light on all this stuff, yet people still expect more of them, as if it’s not people that look like them that are being shot and disproportionately killed while unarmed. That they’d play in the middle of a pandemic that’s disproportionately infecting and killing off their community, and play in a bubble away from their families. That a number of them have started organizations to support voting reform. That a number have spent time talking about solutions with police and people in their cities. And yet people will hit them with a “What about China?” as if the players don’t actually care about the stuff in their backyards and their own communities.
(I also think a ton of people disingenuously ask that question, much the same way people ask “What about Chicago?” whenever a community of folks is rightfully up in arms over a police shooting.)
sara.ziegler: ^^^ THIS
dubin: Definitely agree with that. But also, it’s possible for people within the NBA (or outside it) to have been wrong on things relating to China and 100 percent right about this.
chris.herring: Absolutely.
tchow: From the statements we’ve seen both written and those that players have read aloud or said to the media, it feels like this action comes more from just exasperation and frustration. They are TIRED. And I think that sentiment can be shared by a lot of Americans right now.
dubin: It’s exhausting and frustrating to me, and I’m a white man who doesn’t have to physically fear for my life in every interaction I have with police. I can’t imagine how it is for people who have to live that reality every day.
chris.herring: I’m quite tired of people being held to a standard of caring about something that the critics don’t hold themselves to — especially when the players appear to be taking actionable steps on so many other human rights issues that are happening in this country.
dubin: Also tired of people pretending that because (some) NBA players make hundreds of millions of dollars, these things don’t affect them.
tchow: YUP
dre.waters: AGREED!
dubin: Also, every player in the NBA has family and friends who are not in the NBA. They also were not in the NBA from birth. They had to grow up into the people they are now. So, they didn’t always have this fame or money or influence.
And then something that doesn’t get talked about a lot: most NBA players are, comparatively speaking, HUGE compared to the rest of the population. In a world in which police can exaggerate the size of Black men to justify being scared and then using force, already being really, really big could make things even more dangerous for them.
dre.waters: That’s a great point, Jared.
tchow: Yeah, one thing I’ve noticed recently is the number of NBA players who are sharing NEW stories about the times they’ve been profiled by the police and a lot of their interviews to the media have acknowledged that “when I leave the court, I’m still Black” sentiment.
dre.waters: Watching all the coverage of this should be a reminder of that. How many Black commentators and former players have we seen still mention that they have the same talks with their families and loved ones that every other Black family has to have?
sara.ziegler: I hope that white fans are listening to that — and really hearing it.
chris.herring: I’m cynical. But I hope at some point I’m wrong for being that way.


fivethirthyeight--2020-08-28--What Trump Didn’t Say In His RNC Speech Is As Important As What He Did Say

What Trump Didn ’ t Say In His RNC Speech Is As Important As What He Did Say


fivethirthyeight--2020-08-28--Politics Podcast: What Trump’s RNC Speech Means For The Next Two Months

On the final night of the 2020 Republican National Convention , President Trump gave a historically long speech on the @ @ @ @ @ The FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast crew takes stock of what he said and — perhaps more @ @ @ @ @ ’ t say .

On the final night of the 2020 Republican National Convention, President Trump gave a historically long speech on the White House South Lawn. The FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast crew takes stock of what he said and — perhaps more importantly — what he didn’t say.