fivethirthyeight--2020-12-07--What The Polls Say About Georgia’s Senate Runoffs

Headed into the 2020 election , we knew that Election Day might turn into Election Week or even Election Month because of the huge increase in mail voting due to the coronavirus pandemic .
While it thankfully didn ’ t take a month to find out who won the presidency or which party will control the House , we are still in the dark about who will control the U.S. Senate .
The answer now hinges on Georgia and its two Senate races .
That ’ s right , Georgia is holding an unprecedented double runoff for both its Senate @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a Hollywood-style flourish , these two races will decide which party controls the chamber in the next Congress .
In other words , Georgia is now at the center of the political universe , and the outcome here is uncertain considering the state just voted Democratic in the presidential election for the first time in 28 years .
We don ’ t have a ton of polls of these runoffs yet , but FiveThirtyEight is rolling out its polling averages for both of the contests today to help everyone keep tabs on where @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are not forecasts like the ones we published for the White House , Senate and House before the November election ; they do not account for non-polling factors such as the state ’ s base partisanship , demographics or candidate quality .
They are simply a fancy snapshot of what the polling says right now . )
And based on the initial wave of polls conducted since the Nov. 3 general election , both runoff races look very close .
In the regularly scheduled Senate race , Republican Sen. David Perdue is roughly @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in the special election , Democrat Raphael Warnock holds a narrow lead over Republican Sen. Kelly Loeffler ( who was appointed in January 2020 to fill a vacancy , which is why she ’ s up for election ) .
As we said at the outset , there hasn ’ t been a ton of polling yet , so it ’ s hard to read too much into the few polls we do have .
But less than a week after the general election , GOP pollster Remington Research went into the field @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in the regularly scheduled contest and Loeffler and Warnock locked in a virtual tie in the special election .
Then in mid-November , Insider Advantage/Fox5 Atlanta found both sets of candidates running neck and neck .
Two late-November polls were somewhat more bullish for Democrats .
RMG Research/PoliticalIQ found both races to be very tight but with Ossoff and Warnock leading by 1 and 2 points , respectively , while a SurveyUSA/WXIA-TV poll gave Ossoff a 2-point edge over Perdue and Warnock a 7-point lead over Loeffler .
Lastly , Republican pollster Trafalgar @ @ @ @ @ @ @ showed Ossoff and Perdue separated by less than 1 point , but Loeffler ahead by about 5 points .
Of course , some may wonder if it ’ s worth putting much stock in these runoff surveys after polls across the country underestimated President Trump ’ s support in November .
But remember the polls in Georgia actually did pretty well : Biden led by 1.2 points in FiveThirtyEight ’ s final Georgia polling average , and he wound up winning the state by about 0.3 points , meaning the polls were only @ @ @ @ @ @ @ we don ’ t think you should dismiss these runoff polls just yet .
Unsurprisingly , the runoff polls show the two races shaping up pretty similarly to each other , and the expectation is that each party ’ s vote share will be about the same in both races , much as they were in the initial vote .
In the regular contest , Perdue won 49.7 percent support while Ossoff garnered 47.9 percent .
Because of Georgia ’ s rules for holding special elections , that contest included multiple contenders from @ @ @ @ @ @ @ total for each party was still very close to the Perdue-Ossoff split : The Republican candidates combined had a narrow 1-point edge , 49.4 percent to 48.4 percent , over the Democrats .
Now , it ’ s true that Democrats running in the special election did slightly better than Ossoff , but one key challenge for both Loeffler and Warnock in the special election is that each will have to consolidate support from voters who backed other candidates in the first round of the special election .
( Republican candidates other than @ @ @ @ @ @ @ than Warnock won 15.5 percent . )
But in such a polarized and partisan environment , both Democratic and Republican voters should mostly come home to their nominees .
Take the latest SurveyUSA poll of the race , where Warnock attracted 97 percent of Democrats and Loeffler won 92 percent of Republicans .
It was a similar story with the InsideAdvantage survey : Warnock won 94 percent of Democrats while Loeffler won 89 percent of Republicans .
That means much of the race could boil down to how independents swing ; in SurveyUSA @ @ @ @ @ @ @ they split almost evenly in both races .
But with about four weeks of campaigning to go , voters ’ preferences could change .
The state is already being bombarded with arguments from both sides : A staggering $ 283 million has been spent on TV ads , and observers estimate that the total could reach half a billion dollars when all is said and done .
Trump himself held a rally there on Saturday , which could inspire his base to turn out for Loeffler and Perdue but could also incite Democrats @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Georgia , as you may have heard , is now a purple state ; in fact , it was the state decided by the smallest margin in the 2020 presidential election . )
But not all of the messaging is consistent , at least on the GOP side : Some pro-Trump figures who still ( falsely ) insist that last month ’ s presidential vote in Georgia was rigged are urging Republicans not to participate in an election they do not view as fair .
While it seems unlikely that the message can @ @ @ @ @ @ @ drive up turnout , there are signs that Republicans ’ current lack of faith in the electoral process could keep some of them away from the ballot box .
According to the SurveyUSA poll , just 16 percent of Republicans said they had “ full confidence ” that runoff votes will be counted accurately , although there ’ s no reason to think they won ’ t be .
And among registered voters who backed Trump in November but said they aren ’ t likely to vote in the runoffs , 23 percent @ @ @ @ @ @ @ stay home was that they believed the voting process was rigged .
We ’ ll hopefully get a clearer picture of the evolution of the race as we get more polls in the coming weeks , so be sure to bookmark our Georgia runoff polling averages and check back regularly .
For now , though , the early polls suggest both contests will be quite competitive , and while the GOP has historically done better in Georgia runoffs than in the preceding general election , there ’ s never been a runoff like @ @ @ @ @ @ @ not only who will be Georgia ’ s next two senators , but also which party will control the entire Senate .

Headed into the 2020 election, we knew that Election Day might turn into Election Week or even Election Month because of the huge increase in mail voting due to the coronavirus pandemic. While it thankfully didn’t take a month to find out who won the presidency or which party will control the House, we are still in the dark about who will control the U.S. Senate.
The answer now hinges on Georgia and its two Senate races. That’s right, Georgia is holding an unprecedented double runoff for both its Senate seats on Jan. 5, and in a Hollywood-style flourish, these two races will decide which party controls the chamber in the next Congress. In other words, Georgia is now at the center of the political universe, and the outcome here is uncertain considering the state just voted Democratic in the presidential election for the first time in 28 years.
Don’t believe anything 2020 exit polls tell you | FiveThirtyEight
We don’t have a ton of polls of these runoffs yet, but FiveThirtyEight is rolling out its polling averages for both of the contests today to help everyone keep tabs on where things stand. (Note that these are not forecasts like the ones we published for the White House, Senate and House before the November election; they do not account for non-polling factors such as the state’s base partisanship, demographics or candidate quality. They are simply a fancy snapshot of what the polling says right now.)
[Related: There Wasn’t That Much Split-Ticket Voting In 2020]
And based on the initial wave of polls conducted since the Nov. 3 general election, both runoff races look very close. In the regularly scheduled Senate race, Republican Sen. David Perdue is roughly tied with Democrat Jon Ossoff, while in the special election, Democrat Raphael Warnock holds a narrow lead over Republican Sen. Kelly Loeffler (who was appointed in January 2020 to fill a vacancy, which is why she’s up for election).
As we said at the outset, there hasn’t been a ton of polling yet, so it’s hard to read too much into the few polls we do have. But less than a week after the general election, GOP pollster Remington Research went into the field and found Perdue ahead by 4 points in the regularly scheduled contest and Loeffler and Warnock locked in a virtual tie in the special election. Then in mid-November, Insider Advantage/Fox5 Atlanta found both sets of candidates running neck and neck. Two late-November polls were somewhat more bullish for Democrats. RMG Research/PoliticalIQ found both races to be very tight but with Ossoff and Warnock leading by 1 and 2 points, respectively, while a SurveyUSA/WXIA-TV poll gave Ossoff a 2-point edge over Perdue and Warnock a 7-point lead over Loeffler. Lastly, Republican pollster Trafalgar Group just released an early-December poll that showed Ossoff and Perdue separated by less than 1 point, but Loeffler ahead by about 5 points.
Of course, some may wonder if it’s worth putting much stock in these runoff surveys after polls across the country underestimated President Trump’s support in November. But remember the polls in Georgia actually did pretty well: Biden led by 1.2 points in FiveThirtyEight’s final Georgia polling average, and he wound up winning the state by about 0.3 points, meaning the polls were only off by about a point. So we don’t think you should dismiss these runoff polls just yet.
Unsurprisingly, the runoff polls show the two races shaping up pretty similarly to each other, and the expectation is that each party’s vote share will be about the same in both races, much as they were in the initial vote. In the regular contest, Perdue won 49.7 percent support while Ossoff garnered 47.9 percent. Because of Georgia’s rules for holding special elections, that contest included multiple contenders from each party, but the aggregate vote total for each party was still very close to the Perdue-Ossoff split: The Republican candidates combined had a narrow 1-point edge, 49.4 percent to 48.4 percent, over the Democrats.
Now, it’s true that Democrats running in the special election did slightly better than Ossoff, but one key challenge for both Loeffler and Warnock in the special election is that each will have to consolidate support from voters who backed other candidates in the first round of the special election. (Republican candidates other than Loeffler won 23.5 percent while Democrats other than Warnock won 15.5 percent.) But in such a polarized and partisan environment, both Democratic and Republican voters should mostly come home to their nominees.
[Related: Democrats’ 2020 House And Senate Map Could Spell Trouble In Future Elections]
Take the latest SurveyUSA poll of the race, where Warnock attracted 97 percent of Democrats and Loeffler won 92 percent of Republicans. It was a similar story with the InsideAdvantage survey: Warnock won 94 percent of Democrats while Loeffler won 89 percent of Republicans. That means much of the race could boil down to how independents swing; in SurveyUSA’s poll, for instance, they split almost evenly in both races. But with about four weeks of campaigning to go, voters’ preferences could change.
The state is already being bombarded with arguments from both sides: A staggering $283 million has been spent on TV ads, and observers estimate that the total could reach half a billion dollars when all is said and done. Trump himself held a rally there on Saturday, which could inspire his base to turn out for Loeffler and Perdue but could also incite Democrats to turn out in opposition. (Georgia, as you may have heard, is now a purple state; in fact, it was the state decided by the smallest margin in the 2020 presidential election.)
But not all of the messaging is consistent, at least on the GOP side: Some pro-Trump figures who still (falsely) insist that last month’s presidential vote in Georgia was rigged are urging Republicans not to participate in an election they do not view as fair. While it seems unlikely that the message can compete with a nine-digit ad campaign to drive up turnout, there are signs that Republicans’ current lack of faith in the electoral process could keep some of them away from the ballot box. According to the SurveyUSA poll, just 16 percent of Republicans said they had “full confidence” that runoff votes will be counted accurately, although there’s no reason to think they won’t be. And among registered voters who backed Trump in November but said they aren’t likely to vote in the runoffs, 23 percent said the main reason they planned to stay home was that they believed the voting process was rigged.
We’ll hopefully get a clearer picture of the evolution of the race as we get more polls in the coming weeks, so be sure to bookmark our Georgia runoff polling averages and check back regularly. For now, though, the early polls suggest both contests will be quite competitive, and while the GOP has historically done better in Georgia runoffs than in the preceding general election, there’s never been a runoff like this before — one that will decide not only who will be Georgia’s next two senators, but also which party will control the entire Senate.
Will Georgia stay blue? | FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast


fivethirthyeight--2020-12-07--Are The Jets Tanking, Or Are They Just This Bad?

sara.ziegler ( Sara Ziegler , sports editor ) : It ’ s Monday , and we still have three games remaining in Week 13 .
Such is life in the pandemic NFL .
But the games that have been played so far were something else .
Let ’ s start by talking about bad teams doing some bad things .
Yes , that ’ s right : We have to talk about the New York Jets .
It looked for all the world like the Jets were about to win their first game Sunday : With just under two minutes @ @ @ @ @ @ @ up 4 points with the ball after stopping the reeling Las Vegas Raiders in the red zone .
But they went three-and-out and gave the ball back to Derek Carr , and the Raiders did … this : First things first : Did the Jets want to win that game ?
Salfino ( Michael Salfino , FiveThirtyEight contributor ) : The Jets did .
If they had wanted to lose , they would have just quit when they were down 24-13 .
Jets fans , on the other hand , did not want @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Hermsmeyer , NFL analyst ) : I think the Jets did want to win .
While that was a hyper-aggressive play call by defensive coordinator Gregg Williams — and a dumb one , since it put single coverage on the only deep weapon the Raiders really have in Henry Ruggs — they played well enough to win all game .
The Jets had a higher expected points added ( EPA ) per play than the Raiders even when you include the game-winning Hail Mary .
Plus , Williams has nothing to gain from @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ( Neil Paine , senior sportswriter ) : That being said , it was a uniquely bad play call .
Literally unique : Salfino : This is what Williams always does .
The idea that this is “ unprecedented ” just comes from getting too specific with your search .
The number of rushers was just a function of the number of receivers in the pattern .
One guy was at the line waiting for the tight end to release .
It was probably the first time ever there were three receivers in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ too .
neil : I don ’ t think that ’ s an unreasonable definition of a Hail Mary situation , but even putting that aside — and let ’ s say that this play is his go-to call for that scenario — it just seems so unnecessary .
Aggression makes way more sense when you are losing , not when there is only really one mistake you have to avoid in order to not lose .
Salfino : I agree that it ’ s too risky a call to make when the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s what the offense would want you to do .
And the Raiders clearly knew it was coming .
But the bottom line is that from a Jets fan perspective , it was an awesome call and the Greatest Loss Ever .
It turned what was one of the darkest days in Jets history ( had they won ) into another step down the Trevor Lawrence Highway .
joshua.hermsmeyer : Williams is not a good football coach for a whole host of reasons .
sara.ziegler : And in fact , he is no @ @ @ @ @ @ @ found out that the Jets have fired Williams .
Salfino : Jets fans want to give Williams a statue right now .
So this is super weird .
Williams has obviously had a checkered past with Bountygate and now this , but I think generally he ’ s been a good coordinator over his 22 years , including coaching a Super Bowl-winning defense , and he was certainly a good coordinator in 2019. neil : Our wonderful copy editor Maya Sweedler just slacked me to say Williams was “ sacrificed on the altar @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Jets fan . )
Salfino : The Jets are executing the Tank of the Century .
Josh should be proud .
joshua.hermsmeyer : But what if Justin Fields is better than Lawrence , and being forced to get the second pick takes away the opportunity to make a bad choice ?
😎 Salfino : Definitely could be the case , I stipulate .
sara.ziegler : This brings me to my next question : For these Jets players , should they have wanted to lose ?
I have to think the likelihood of going @ @ @ @ @ @ @ weighing on them .
Salfino : Is 1-15 much better ?
The San Francisco 49ers were 2-14 in 2016 and then went to the Super Bowl three years later .
I don ’ t think 0-16 is a big deal .
neil : It sucks for them because they are not going to be part of the Tank Endgame Masterpiece .
They just put their bodies on the line for the tank with nothing to show for it , most likely .
joshua.hermsmeyer : Well , they were paid .
And I don @ @ @ @ @ @ @ but being in the NFL is a special privilege .
That said , some front-office people I respect absolutely hate tanking , even the analytics people .
neil : Touché , but we all know NFL players are in the most precarious situation of all major-league athletes , in terms of job security and ( for non-QBs or stars ) guaranteed salary .
Add in the long-term injury factor , and there ’ s something extra icky about tanking in football in particular .
Salfino : Again , I don ’ t think @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are happy accidents .
And it ’ s only happy when there is a reputed generational QB prospect , as is the case this year .
( Not that Lawrence will actually be that , but he ’ s clearly an extremely coveted player . )
As we sit right now , the Jets have a better expected future than at least 10 other teams , IMO .
Probably more .
joshua.hermsmeyer : I mean , the QB part is a big piece , but where that QB ends up and the structure @ @ @ @ @ @ @ And the Jets are a mess on that front .
Salfino : How is GM Joe Douglas a mess ?
On what basis ?
joshua.hermsmeyer : Well , he is general manager of a winless team , for starters .
Salfino : This isn ’ t his roster .
He ’ s had one draft .
This is still Mike Maccagnan ’ s team .
He certainly hasn ’ t proved that he ’ s good , though .
Of course I agree with that .
But a mess ?
Nah .
No @ @ @ @ @ @ @ joshua.hermsmeyer : If the only information you had on a GM was that he was in charge for one of the worst seasons in team history — and that ’ s really all we know of him — your opinion of him should shade heavily toward bad , IMO .
Because remember , they aren ’ t tanking .
You get no points for the thing you aren ’ t doing .
neil : Their ownership isn ’ t exactly the best either .
As a Mets fan , Mike , you should @ @ @ @ @ @ @ into the DNA of a losing team .
Salfino : Neil , if they ’ re not making football decisions ( and the Johnsons don ’ t ) and are spending money ( the Johnson do ) , I don ’ t care about them .
I disagree with their organizational structure , where both the coach and the GM are reporting to the owner , but many teams do that .
neil : All I ’ m saying is there ’ s one commonality across the last 10 years of playoff-less football @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 20 years of only sporadically competitive Jets teams .
Salfino : Well , the Jets have been “ sporadically competitive ” since they were formed .
neil : That ’ s fair .
But let ’ s just say that the guy who did this probably isn ’ t building a good culture .
Salfino : That I agree with , but I guarantee I would not want to have a beer with 95 percent of NFL owners .
One last fun fact on the Jets and Raiders : Something similar happened to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ years ago to the day ( with Daryle Lamonica in the role of Derek Carr ) : sara.ziegler : OK , let ’ s move on to the other chief contender in the Tanking for Trevor Sweepstakes : the Jacksonville Jaguars .
Jacksonville also very nearly won Sunday , forcing overtime with the Minnesota Vikings .
You could make the case that the Jags need Lawrence more than the Jets do .
Should they have just thrown in the towel in that game ?
Is that even really possible to do ?
neil @ @ @ @ @ @ @ go with Mike Glennon as starter over Gardner Minshew , despite Minshew being healthy .
What else can you do ?
joshua.hermsmeyer : I actually think Luton is a more exciting passer !
neil : I admit there ’ s something to be said for “ fun QBs.
” Salfino : The Jaguars have been feisty .
They were kicking the crap out of the Vikings in the first half , and then Kirk Cousins found something , even though his QBR for the game was trash .
He ’ s been great @ @ @ @ @ @ @ : This may be one of those games where Kirk played better than the numbers suggest .
He threw an interception , but it happened because MVP candidate Dalvin Cook failed to turn around .
Salfino : Yeah , why was his Total Quarterback Rating so bad ?
Was it the fumble blame , which comes before the fumble shame ?
sara.ziegler : He deserves all the fumble shame all the time , IMHO .
neil : And his net yards per attempt weren ’ t amazing after subtracting the 30 sack yards @ @ @ @ @ @ @ : I think one fumble was charged to Cousins even though Cook dropped the pitch .
sara.ziegler : That ’ s funny : When I watched that fumble , I thought it would be charged to Dalvin and said out loud , “ That was Kirk ’ s fault.
” Salfino : Sara is always looking to blame poor Cousins … Salfino : The Vikings are in the playoffs as we sit , right ?
neil : Yes , they would be the absolute last wild-card team .
Getting in on the somewhat @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ” tiebreaker .
sara.ziegler : Ugh , yes , which is so ridiculous .
They are aggressively NOT a playoff team .
Salfino : I think the Vikings have a playoff offense , but their defense is trash .
Mike Zimmer doesn ’ t understand this , which is the real problem .
I don ’ t even have the Vikings on my “ worse expected future than the Jets ” list .
I actually think with Cousins and those receivers , they are dangerous in the postseason .
joshua.hermsmeyer : Who would @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Sara ?
sara.ziegler : Arizona , San Francisco … maybe Washington .
Dallas , who beat them .
neil : Arizona certainly seemed better about a month ago .
Salfino : Really , Josh ?
Arizona is stinking garbage right now .
Salfino : Teams are taking away the running game , and Murray has no Plan B .
Granted , the Cardinals ’ most recent loss was to the Rams , who have maybe the best defense in football , masked by the fact that they somehow allowed 28 points to Arizona @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a playoff team ?
The New York Giants !
They ’ re the best team in the NFC East after beating a sluggish Seattle behind quarterback Colt McCoy .
It was McCoy ’ s first win since 2014 !
neil : You know who is not a playoff team ?
The Eagles .
( These two things are related . )
sara.ziegler : What happened to the Seahawks in that Giants game ?
Salfino : Russell Wilson was gross is what happened .
How that happened , I have no idea .
He @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , but he ’ s been a fantasy bust for a month now .
joshua.hermsmeyer : I ’ m afraid that Russ won ’ t ever be allowed to cook again if the Hawks don ’ t make the playoffs .
neil : The Giants ’ defense did a fantastic job against him .
Given the competition , this was their best game of the year .
Salfino : Totally agree on the Giants defense .
The Giants are the Dolphins of the NFC .
Or at least the NFC East .
The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of branches .
neil : Lately the Giants are either winning or they ’ re losing a squeaker .
The last time they lost by more than 3 points ?
Oct. 4 .
Salfino : And I think , gasp , we may owe Dave Gettleman an apology .
neil : I mean , most of those games were still against either the NFC East or Joe Burrow-less Bengals-type teams .
So let ’ s not get too carried away .
But they are in the division driver ’ s seat for sure @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Yorker , I hate the other city team .
But the Giants have been very feisty all year .
I ’ d be proud of the team if I was a fan .
neil : And once they ’ re in the playoffs , I ’ m looking forward to them pulling some kind of wild 2007- or 2011-style run .
The Packers will be right there , offering the chance for yet another soul-crushing home upset loss to the G-Men .
Salfino : Also right now the Giants would play Seattle .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ was interesting : Wilson threw an incredible pass through the linemen in front of him — basically a no-look sidearm pass .
And it went right through Chris Carson ’ s hands for an interception .
Patrick Mahomes made a similar pass Sunday night , and everyone fell all over themselves to say how unique his skill set is .
Mahomes is undeniably great , but I ’ m not so sure some of the things he does are that unique .
He just seems to get away with them more than others @ @ @ @ @ @ @ with quite a few turnover-worthy plays this year . )
Salfino : Man , the Chiefs are in some weird company now ; are Mahomes and their offense just off ?
sara.ziegler : It ’ s got ta feel great for the Chiefs to still be winning even when they ’ re not playing their best ball .
neil : I don ’ t know whether to be worried about the Chiefs or not , though .
Since Week 9 , they are 4-0 despite winning by a grand total of 15 points @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ton of yardage , but it has not been vintage , pretty or convincing K.C .
football .
sara.ziegler : The other big surprise of the week for me was New England ’ s 45-0 dismantling of the Los Angeles Chargers .
What did you guys make of that game ?
neil : The win certainly did wonders for their yards-per-point number , usually a Bill Belichick hallmark .
They scored 45 while gaining less than 300 total yards , one of the only times a team has ever done that .
Salfino @ @ @ @ @ @ @ each coach the other team and had them play in a month , the Bill Belichick Chargers would beat the Anthony Lynn Patriots probably 60-0 .
Lynn may be having the worst coaching season I have ever seen .
joshua.hermsmeyer : Justin Herbert looked like a rookie for perhaps the first time this year , so that was notable .
Salfino : Also , I love him , but Herbert was seeing ghosts .
neil : And the Patriots D reminded us of last year ’ s dominating version for one of the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ sara.ziegler : If the Patriots were in the NFC , I ’ d pick them over the Vikings for the playoffs , too .
neil : Well , we know you would .

Are The Jets Tanking, Or Are They Just This Bad? Yes.
sara.ziegler (Sara Ziegler, sports editor): It’s Monday, and we still have three games remaining in Week 13. Such is life in the pandemic NFL. But the games that have been played so far were something else.
Let’s start by talking about bad teams doing some bad things. Yes, that’s right: We have to talk about the New York Jets.
It looked for all the world like the Jets were about to win their first game Sunday: With just under two minutes left in the game, they were up 4 points with the ball after stopping the reeling Las Vegas Raiders in the red zone. But they went three-and-out and gave the ball back to Derek Carr, and the Raiders did … this:
First things first: Did the Jets want to win that game?
Salfino (Michael Salfino, FiveThirtyEight contributor): The Jets did. If they had wanted to lose, they would have just quit when they were down 24-13.
Jets fans, on the other hand, did not want them to win.
joshua.hermsmeyer (Josh Hermsmeyer, NFL analyst): I think the Jets did want to win. While that was a hyper-aggressive play call by defensive coordinator Gregg Williams — and a dumb one, since it put single coverage on the only deep weapon the Raiders really have in Henry Ruggs — they played well enough to win all game. The Jets had a higher expected points added (EPA) per play than the Raiders even when you include the game-winning Hail Mary.
Plus, Williams has nothing to gain from looking like a fool there.
neil (Neil Paine, senior sportswriter): That being said, it was a uniquely bad play call. Literally unique:
This is from ESPN’s Stats and Info team, @ESPNStatsInfo. And it’s off the charts: pic.twitter.com/h6fjRE1chC — Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) December 7, 2020
Salfino: This is what Williams always does. The idea that this is “unprecedented” just comes from getting too specific with your search. The number of rushers was just a function of the number of receivers in the pattern. One guy was at the line waiting for the tight end to release. It was probably the first time ever there were three receivers in the pattern on a Hail Mary, too.
Tim Hasselbeck explains a pattern of what Gregg Williams always does on Hail Mary type play! #Jets pic.twitter.com/Wq4paqBeJo — Connie Carberg (@ConnieScouts) December 7, 2020
neil: I don’t think that’s an unreasonable definition of a Hail Mary situation, but even putting that aside — and let’s say that this play is his go-to call for that scenario — it just seems so unnecessary. Aggression makes way more sense when you are losing, not when there is only really one mistake you have to avoid in order to not lose.
Salfino: I agree that it’s too risky a call to make when the game is basically over. It’s what the offense would want you to do. And the Raiders clearly knew it was coming. But the bottom line is that from a Jets fan perspective, it was an awesome call and the Greatest Loss Ever. It turned what was one of the darkest days in Jets history (had they won) into another step down the Trevor Lawrence Highway.
joshua.hermsmeyer: Williams is not a good football coach for a whole host of reasons.
sara.ziegler: And in fact, he is no longer a football coach! We just found out that the Jets have fired Williams.
Salfino: Jets fans want to give Williams a statue right now. So this is super weird. Williams has obviously had a checkered past with Bountygate and now this, but I think generally he’s been a good coordinator over his 22 years, including coaching a Super Bowl-winning defense, and he was certainly a good coordinator in 2019.
neil: Our wonderful copy editor Maya Sweedler just slacked me to say Williams was “sacrificed on the altar of Trevor.” (She is a Jets fan.)
sara.ziegler: 😭
Salfino: The Jets are executing the Tank of the Century. Josh should be proud.
joshua.hermsmeyer: But what if Justin Fields is better than Lawrence, and being forced to get the second pick takes away the opportunity to make a bad choice? 😎
Salfino: Definitely could be the case, I stipulate.
sara.ziegler: This brings me to my next question: For these Jets players, should they have wanted to lose? I have to think the likelihood of going 0-16 on the season has to be weighing on them.
Salfino: Is 1-15 much better? The San Francisco 49ers were 2-14 in 2016 and then went to the Super Bowl three years later. I don’t think 0-16 is a big deal.
neil: It sucks for them because they are not going to be part of the Tank Endgame Masterpiece. They just put their bodies on the line for the tank with nothing to show for it, most likely.
joshua.hermsmeyer: Well, they were paid.
And I don’t mean to be flip, but being in the NFL is a special privilege. That said, some front-office people I respect absolutely hate tanking, even the analytics people.
neil: Touché, but we all know NFL players are in the most precarious situation of all major-league athletes, in terms of job security and (for non-QBs or stars) guaranteed salary. Add in the long-term injury factor, and there’s something extra icky about tanking in football in particular.
Salfino: Again, I don’t think the Jets are tanking. All tanks are happy accidents. And it’s only happy when there is a reputed generational QB prospect, as is the case this year. (Not that Lawrence will actually be that, but he’s clearly an extremely coveted player.)
As we sit right now, the Jets have a better expected future than at least 10 other teams, IMO. Probably more.
joshua.hermsmeyer: Ehhh
sara.ziegler: What
joshua.hermsmeyer: I mean, the QB part is a big piece, but where that QB ends up and the structure of that organization means a lot. And the Jets are a mess on that front.
Salfino: How is GM Joe Douglas a mess? On what basis?
joshua.hermsmeyer: Well, he is general manager of a winless team, for starters.
Salfino: This isn’t his roster. He’s had one draft. This is still Mike Maccagnan’s team.
He certainly hasn’t proved that he’s good, though. Of course I agree with that. But a mess? Nah. No way is there evidence of that.
joshua.hermsmeyer: If the only information you had on a GM was that he was in charge for one of the worst seasons in team history — and that’s really all we know of him — your opinion of him should shade heavily toward bad, IMO.
Because remember, they aren’t tanking. You get no points for the thing you aren’t doing.
neil: Their ownership isn’t exactly the best either. As a Mets fan, Mike, you should appreciate how much bad owners can seep into the DNA of a losing team.
Salfino: Neil, if they’re not making football decisions (and the Johnsons don’t) and are spending money (the Johnson do), I don’t care about them. I disagree with their organizational structure, where both the coach and the GM are reporting to the owner, but many teams do that.
neil: All I’m saying is there’s one commonality across the last 10 years of playoff-less football, and more broadly across the last 20 years of only sporadically competitive Jets teams.
Salfino: Well, the Jets have been “sporadically competitive” since they were formed.
sara.ziegler: 🤣
neil: That’s fair. But let’s just say that the guy who did this probably isn’t building a good culture.
Salfino: That I agree with, but I guarantee I would not want to have a beer with 95 percent of NFL owners.
One last fun fact on the Jets and Raiders: Something similar happened to the Jets against Oakland at home 50 years ago to the day (with Daryle Lamonica in the role of Derek Carr):
50 years ago on December 6, 1970 @ Shea Stadium Oakland 14 Jets 13 Final The #Raiders shot down the Jets with a 😡💣Lamonica's bomb to WR Warren Wells (2 TDs) and CB Willie Brown had an interception. pic.twitter.com/aPLWsjSf76 — AFL Godfather 🏴☠👓🏈 (@NFLMAVERICK) December 6, 2020
sara.ziegler: OK, let’s move on to the other chief contender in the Tanking for Trevor Sweepstakes: the Jacksonville Jaguars. Jacksonville also very nearly won Sunday, forcing overtime with the Minnesota Vikings. You could make the case that the Jags need Lawrence more than the Jets do. Should they have just thrown in the towel in that game? Is that even really possible to do?
neil: They already made the decision to go with Mike Glennon as starter over Gardner Minshew, despite Minshew being healthy. What else can you do?
sara.ziegler: Great point.
neil: (I guess they could make Jake Luton permanent starter?)
joshua.hermsmeyer: I actually think Luton is a more exciting passer!
neil: I admit there’s something to be said for “fun QBs.”
Salfino: The Jaguars have been feisty. They were kicking the crap out of the Vikings in the first half, and then Kirk Cousins found something, even though his QBR for the game was trash. He’s been great in second halves all year.
joshua.hermsmeyer: This may be one of those games where Kirk played better than the numbers suggest. He threw an interception, but it happened because MVP candidate Dalvin Cook failed to turn around.
Salfino: Yeah, why was his Total Quarterback Rating so bad? Was it the fumble blame, which comes before the fumble shame?
sara.ziegler: He deserves all the fumble shame all the time, IMHO.
neil: And his net yards per attempt weren’t amazing after subtracting the 30 sack yards (a season high).
Salfino: I think one fumble was charged to Cousins even though Cook dropped the pitch.
sara.ziegler: That’s funny: When I watched that fumble, I thought it would be charged to Dalvin and said out loud, “That was Kirk’s fault.”
(Yes, I talk to my TV during Vikings games. A lot.)
joshua.hermsmeyer: 😂
Salfino: Sara is always looking to blame poor Cousins …
sara.ziegler: My priors are sound.
Salfino: The Vikings are in the playoffs as we sit, right?
neil: Yes, they would be the absolute last wild-card team. Getting in on the somewhat obscure “winning percentage in common games” tiebreaker.
sara.ziegler: Ugh, yes, which is so ridiculous. They are aggressively NOT a playoff team.
Salfino: I think the Vikings have a playoff offense, but their defense is trash. Mike Zimmer doesn’t understand this, which is the real problem.
I don’t even have the Vikings on my “worse expected future than the Jets” list. I actually think with Cousins and those receivers, they are dangerous in the postseason.
joshua.hermsmeyer: Who would you put in ahead of them, Sara?
sara.ziegler: Arizona, San Francisco … maybe Washington. Dallas, who beat them.
Literally the entire league, except Chicago. 😉
neil: Arizona certainly seemed better about a month ago.
joshua.hermsmeyer: I like the NFC West choices.
Salfino: Really, Josh? Arizona is stinking garbage right now.
joshua.hermsmeyer: Kyler Murray is hurt, hater.
Salfino: Teams are taking away the running game, and Murray has no Plan B. Granted, the Cardinals’ most recent loss was to the Rams, who have maybe the best defense in football, masked by the fact that they somehow allowed 28 points to Arizona.
sara.ziegler: You know who is a playoff team? The New York Giants! They’re the best team in the NFC East after beating a sluggish Seattle behind quarterback Colt McCoy. It was McCoy’s first win since 2014!
joshua.hermsmeyer: 😐
neil: You know who is not a playoff team? The Eagles. (These two things are related.)
sara.ziegler: What happened to the Seahawks in that Giants game?
Salfino: Russell Wilson was gross is what happened. How that happened, I have no idea. He’s been holding on in reality, but he’s been a fantasy bust for a month now.
joshua.hermsmeyer: I’m afraid that Russ won’t ever be allowed to cook again if the Hawks don’t make the playoffs.
neil: The Giants’ defense did a fantastic job against him. Given the competition, this was their best game of the year.
Salfino: Totally agree on the Giants defense. The Giants are the Dolphins of the NFC. Or at least the NFC East. The Belichick Tree may finally have a couple of branches.
neil: Lately the Giants are either winning or they’re losing a squeaker. The last time they lost by more than 3 points? Oct. 4.
Salfino: And I think, gasp, we may owe Dave Gettleman an apology.
sara.ziegler: Take that back.
Salfino: I know, I hate myself.
neil: I mean, most of those games were still against either the NFC East or Joe Burrow-less Bengals-type teams. So let’s not get too carried away.
But they are in the division driver’s seat for sure now.
Salfino: As a New Yorker, I hate the other city team. But the Giants have been very feisty all year. I’d be proud of the team if I was a fan.
neil: And once they’re in the playoffs, I’m looking forward to them pulling some kind of wild 2007- or 2011-style run. The Packers will be right there, offering the chance for yet another soul-crushing home upset loss to the G-Men.
Salfino: Also right now the Giants would play Seattle. In the Meadowlands.
joshua.hermsmeyer: It was interesting: Wilson threw an incredible pass through the linemen in front of him — basically a no-look sidearm pass. And it went right through Chris Carson’s hands for an interception. Patrick Mahomes made a similar pass Sunday night, and everyone fell all over themselves to say how unique his skill set is. Mahomes is undeniably great, but I’m not so sure some of the things he does are that unique. He just seems to get away with them more than others. (Pro Football Focus has him with quite a few turnover-worthy plays this year.)
Salfino: Man, the Chiefs are in some weird company now; are Mahomes and their offense just off?
The Chiefs (0-3 at Bucs last week, 0-4 so far tonight) have now gone 7 straight red zone drives without scoring a TD, the longest streak in the NFL this season, passing the Jets and Giants. It's also their longest streak since 2016 (8 straight). pic.twitter.com/dKDKT5iH2P — ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) December 7, 2020
sara.ziegler: It’s gotta feel great for the Chiefs to still be winning even when they’re not playing their best ball.
neil: I don’t know whether to be worried about the Chiefs or not, though. Since Week 9, they are 4-0 despite winning by a grand total of 15 points combined.
Mahomes has racked up a ton of yardage, but it has not been vintage, pretty or convincing K.C. football.
sara.ziegler: The other big surprise of the week for me was New England’s 45-0 dismantling of the Los Angeles Chargers. What did you guys make of that game?
neil: The win certainly did wonders for their yards-per-point number, usually a Bill Belichick hallmark. They scored 45 while gaining less than 300 total yards, one of the only times a team has ever done that.
(They still rank just 19th in yards per point this season, though.)
Salfino: I observed that if you gave each coach the other team and had them play in a month, the Bill Belichick Chargers would beat the Anthony Lynn Patriots probably 60-0. Lynn may be having the worst coaching season I have ever seen.
joshua.hermsmeyer: Justin Herbert looked like a rookie for perhaps the first time this year, so that was notable.
Salfino: Also, I love him, but Herbert was seeing ghosts.
neil: And the Patriots D reminded us of last year’s dominating version for one of the only times this year, too.
sara.ziegler: If the Patriots were in the NFC, I’d pick them over the Vikings for the playoffs, too.
neil: Well, we know you would.
Check out our latest NFL predictions.


fivethirthyeight--2020-12-07--How An Undrafted Rookie Stopped James Harden In The Playoffs

After playing the game of his life , Luguentz Dort slumped in his chair .
His eyes slightly reddened , he did his best to answer questions , occasionally wiping tears from his face , as his accomplishments and emotions were overwhelmed by a settling reality .
“ I mean , we lost , ” Dort told FiveThirtyEight weeks after that September night .
“ I had a good game .
But , we lost.
” The Oklahoma City Thunder guard scored 30 points in Game 7 of his team ’ s Western Conference quarterfinal series against the Houston Rockets @ @ @ @ @ @ @ scored by a player 21 years old or younger in the winner-take-all game .
Only two other players in league history have ever scored 25 or more points in a Game 7 at that age or younger : Kobe Bryant and LeBron James .
Dort also holds the record for most points scored in a Game 7 by an undrafted rookie .
( Only two drafted rookies , Tom Heinsohn and Tom Meschery , have scored more , and that was back in 1957 and 1962 , respectively . )
It was a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of the series , when he averaged 8 points , including a Game 5 in which he shot less than 20 percent from the field for a plus/minus of -24 .
[ The NBA Champs Look More Dangerous Than Ever ] His work in Game 7 eclipsed his Game 6 efforts , then a career-playoff high : 13 points on 56 percent field-goal shooting .
All the while , Dort was tasked with guarding one of the best basketball players in the world : James Harden .
Dort ’ s tight defense led @ @ @ @ @ @ @ up contested shots .
The Beard still racked up a few 30-point nights during the series , but in Game 7 , Dort kept Harden to 17 points .
“ I couldn ’ t fear him , ” Dort said .
“ I know he ’ s one of the … no , he is the best scorer in the NBA .
I can ’ t go and be like , ‘ Ah , man , I ’ m playing the best scorer in the NBA.
’ I can ’ t have that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ whirlwind debut season for the undrafted Canadian .
He had been ready for the 2019 NBA Draft and brought his family and his boyhood coach , Nelson Ossé , from his hometown of Montreal to New York City for the festivities .
Though a record six Canadians were taken , Dort ’ s name went uncalled — but it only added to the underdog legend he was building for himself .
“ There ’ s not a lot of kids from Montreal that end up playing a Game 7 in a bubble , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ” he said .
Dort grew up in Montreal-North , where his parents settled after emigrating from Haiti , and soccer — not basketball — was his first choice .
The young goalkeeper would meet up with his friends to play hoops after soccer practice , and they eventually persuaded him to switch sports .
When he was 12 , he joined the Parc Ex Knights youth basketball team , coached by Ossé .
Dort would travel from school to the gym and back home to Montreal-North by bus and the Metro system @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a raw prospect , but Ossé and his coaching staff took a chance and made him the last pick of the team .
Short on talent , but not on desire , Dort impressed Ossé with his work ethic ; Ossé said Dort never missed a practice .
He admitted that Dort needed a bit more motivation with his academics , but the coach — and Dort ’ s mother — pushed him and even convinced him to move to a school closer to where the Knights played .
[ The Atlanta Hawks @ @ @ @ @ @ @ He didn ’ t respond very well at first a few times , but then he saw me being very serious , ” Ossé said .
“ He was not playing , he was not practicing .
Then we started to see progress in class.
” Once Dort got his marks up , he continued his development as a player .
His size and willingness to work on defense served him well .
“ He was always physical .
He did not back down from anyone because Lu was always big , ” @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a challenge .
He was very competitive .
I think that ’ s what you need to be a very good defender .
“ Being a defender , you could have the quickest feet , you could be the best athlete in the world .
But you ’ ve got to actually love defending .
And Lu ’ s been defending the best player on the other team at a young age.
” Dort ’ s journey would take him to the Amateur Athletic Union circuit , through the Brookwood Elite program , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Jacksonville , Florida .
He would eventually join the Arizona State men ’ s basketball team — the same squad that enlisted Harden .
Dort won Pac-12 Freshman of the Year , Second-Team All-Pac 12 and All-Defense team honors in his lone year in Arizona .
It was an impressive resume , but it wasn ’ t enough to be selected on draft night .
“ I was sad .
It was tough .
I was a little down , ” Dort said .
“ It ’ s a dream of every player @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s hand and put a hat on.
” But Dort caught on with the Thunder and signed a two-way contract with the team in July 2019 .
In his NBA debut last December , he put his defensive skills to work on a game-saving steal against the Minnesota Timberwolves .
“ I felt like that was one of the biggest moments of the year , ” Dort said .
“ I feel like that really set me up for the rest of the season.
” No one could have prepared Dort , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to shut the season down .
But once the teams returned to play in a bubble in Orlando , Dort had a feeling his Thunder squad would match up against the Rockets in the opening round .
Once Dort drew the assignment of guarding Harden , he went to work watching film alongside teammate and former Rocket Chris Paul in his hotel room , absorbing advice on how to guard the former league MVP .
[ Daryl Morey Needed Three Weeks To Fix One Of The Sixers ’ Big Problems ] “ It @ @ @ @ @ @ @ shot — only thing you can do is make it harder , ” Dort said .
“ Sometimes with my [ stance ] , [ I tried ] to not give him a side .
To stay square up .
Those two things really helped.
” For much of the series , the approach worked .
Dort frustrated Harden while forcing him to take tough shots .
In the series-deciding game , Dort was shutting down the former Thunder guard while also putting up 30 points of his own , including 18 in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ was a game-winning shot in the final moments to put a bow on a Game 7 performance and an upset of the Rockets .
He came up just short .
Harden blocked Dort ’ s last-second shot — a sort of middle finger to those who ’ ve criticized his defense in the past .
Dort caught the block , though , and tried to throw the ball out of bounds off Harden to give his team an inbounds play and a chance to set up a winning shot .
If only Harden @ @ @ @ @ @ @ way in time .
Houston survived Dort ’ s brilliant performance and advanced to the second round of the playoffs against the eventual league champion Los Angeles Lakers , while Oklahoma City ’ s postseason was cut short .
Perhaps Dort can be forgiven for not being too excited about meeting with the media after Game 7 .
“ It was hard , ” the Montrealer said .
“ Because we lost that game , and that was it .
That was the end of the season .
The way that it ended @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to put it on myself , but at the same time , it was tough.
” Dort and the Thunder now enter the new season with a new roster and new questions .
Head coach Billy Donovan won ’ t be back on the sidelines , and superstar Paul is off to Phoenix .
All Dort can do is prepare himself by improving his decision-making , his play-making abilities and his shot .
He anticipates that more people may pay attention to his progress and could view him a bit differently .
Since @ @ @ @ @ @ @ been lauded for his defensive efforts and has drawn praise from his peers , notably Harden .
“ Now people don ’ t just look at me as an undrafted player , ” Dort said .
“ The fact that I did all of that this season — that kind of changed the way people look at me .
”

How An Undrafted Rookie Stopped James Harden In The Playoffs Luguentz Dort on his journey from Montreal to the Oklahoma City Thunder.
After playing the game of his life, Luguentz Dort slumped in his chair. His eyes slightly reddened, he did his best to answer questions, occasionally wiping tears from his face, as his accomplishments and emotions were overwhelmed by a settling reality.
“I mean, we lost,” Dort told FiveThirtyEight weeks after that September night. “I had a good game. But, we lost.”
The Oklahoma City Thunder guard scored 30 points in Game 7 of his team’s Western Conference quarterfinal series against the Houston Rockets, setting the record for most points scored by a player 21 years old or younger in the winner-take-all game. Only two other players in league history have ever scored 25 or more points in a Game 7 at that age or younger: Kobe Bryant and LeBron James.
Who’s the most chaotic fictional football coach? | FiveThirtyEight
Dort also holds the record for most points scored in a Game 7 by an undrafted rookie. (Only two drafted rookies, Tom Heinsohn and Tom Meschery, have scored more, and that was back in 1957 and 1962, respectively.) It was a far cry from his first four games of the series, when he averaged 8 points, including a Game 5 in which he shot less than 20 percent from the field for a plus/minus of -24.
[The NBA Champs Look More Dangerous Than Ever]
His work in Game 7 eclipsed his Game 6 efforts, then a career-playoff high: 13 points on 56 percent field-goal shooting.
Lu came alive in Game 7 of the first round Statistics for Luguentz Dort during the Oklahoma City Thunder’s 2020 first-round playoff series against the Houston Rockets Series game Minutes Points FG% 3-pts Rebs +/- Game 2 25:20 8 30.0% 2 2 +4 Game 3 36:13 9 30.0 0 8 +10 Game 4 35:11 9 30.0 3 5 -7 Game 5 23:23 6 18.8 0 0 -24 Game 6 20:04 13 55.6 2 3 -2 Game 7 34:45 30 47.6 6 4 0 Dort was inactive for Game 1. Source: Basketball-Reference.com
All the while, Dort was tasked with guarding one of the best basketball players in the world: James Harden. Dort’s tight defense led to Harden passing off balls or chucking up contested shots. The Beard still racked up a few 30-point nights during the series, but in Game 7, Dort kept Harden to 17 points.
“I couldn’t fear him,” Dort said. “I know he’s one of the … no, he is the best scorer in the NBA. I can’t go and be like, ‘Ah, man, I’m playing the best scorer in the NBA.’ I can’t have that mindset.”
The game capped off a whirlwind debut season for the undrafted Canadian. He had been ready for the 2019 NBA Draft and brought his family and his boyhood coach, Nelson Ossé, from his hometown of Montreal to New York City for the festivities. Though a record six Canadians were taken, Dort’s name went uncalled — but it only added to the underdog legend he was building for himself.
“There’s not a lot of kids from Montreal that end up playing a Game 7 in a bubble, or just being in the NBA,” he said.
Dort grew up in Montreal-North, where his parents settled after emigrating from Haiti, and soccer — not basketball — was his first choice. The young goalkeeper would meet up with his friends to play hoops after soccer practice, and they eventually persuaded him to switch sports. When he was 12, he joined the Parc Ex Knights youth basketball team, coached by Ossé. Dort would travel from school to the gym and back home to Montreal-North by bus and the Metro system for a 90-minute commute.
Dort was a raw prospect, but Ossé and his coaching staff took a chance and made him the last pick of the team. Short on talent, but not on desire, Dort impressed Ossé with his work ethic; Ossé said Dort never missed a practice. He admitted that Dort needed a bit more motivation with his academics, but the coach — and Dort’s mother — pushed him and even convinced him to move to a school closer to where the Knights played.
[The Atlanta Hawks Are Going All-In On Offense]
“He didn’t respond very well at first a few times, but then he saw me being very serious,” Ossé said. “He was not playing, he was not practicing. Then we started to see progress in class.”
Once Dort got his marks up, he continued his development as a player. His size and willingness to work on defense served him well.
“He was always physical. He did not back down from anyone because Lu was always big,” Ossé said. “He always took a challenge. He was very competitive. I think that’s what you need to be a very good defender.
“Being a defender, you could have the quickest feet, you could be the best athlete in the world. But you’ve got to actually love defending. And Lu’s been defending the best player on the other team at a young age.”
Dort’s journey would take him to the Amateur Athletic Union circuit, through the Brookwood Elite program, and he played high school ball in Jacksonville, Florida. He would eventually join the Arizona State men’s basketball team — the same squad that enlisted Harden.
Dort won Pac-12 Freshman of the Year, Second-Team All-Pac 12 and All-Defense team honors in his lone year in Arizona. It was an impressive resume, but it wasn’t enough to be selected on draft night. “I was sad. It was tough. I was a little down,” Dort said. “It’s a dream of every player to walk across, shake the commissioner’s hand and put a hat on.”
But Dort caught on with the Thunder and signed a two-way contract with the team in July 2019. In his NBA debut last December, he put his defensive skills to work on a game-saving steal against the Minnesota Timberwolves.
“I felt like that was one of the biggest moments of the year,” Dort said. “I feel like that really set me up for the rest of the season.”
No one could have prepared Dort, or any other player, for COVID-19 to shut the season down. But once the teams returned to play in a bubble in Orlando, Dort had a feeling his Thunder squad would match up against the Rockets in the opening round. Once Dort drew the assignment of guarding Harden, he went to work watching film alongside teammate and former Rocket Chris Paul in his hotel room, absorbing advice on how to guard the former league MVP.
[Daryl Morey Needed Three Weeks To Fix One Of The Sixers’ Big Problems]
“It’s not trying to block his shot — only thing you can do is make it harder,” Dort said. “Sometimes with my [stance], [I tried] to not give him a side. To stay square up. Those two things really helped.”
For much of the series, the approach worked. Dort frustrated Harden while forcing him to take tough shots. In the series-deciding game, Dort was shutting down the former Thunder guard while also putting up 30 points of his own, including 18 in the first half. All he needed was a game-winning shot in the final moments to put a bow on a Game 7 performance and an upset of the Rockets.
He came up just short.
Harden blocked Dort’s last-second shot — a sort of middle finger to those who’ve criticized his defense in the past. Dort caught the block, though, and tried to throw the ball out of bounds off Harden to give his team an inbounds play and a chance to set up a winning shot. If only Harden hadn’t jumped out of the way in time.
Houston survived Dort’s brilliant performance and advanced to the second round of the playoffs against the eventual league champion Los Angeles Lakers, while Oklahoma City’s postseason was cut short. Perhaps Dort can be forgiven for not being too excited about meeting with the media after Game 7.
“It was hard,” the Montrealer said. “Because we lost that game, and that was it. That was the end of the season. The way that it ended too. I didn’t want to put it on myself, but at the same time, it was tough.”
Dort and the Thunder now enter the new season with a new roster and new questions. Head coach Billy Donovan won’t be back on the sidelines, and superstar Paul is off to Phoenix. All Dort can do is prepare himself by improving his decision-making, his play-making abilities and his shot.
He anticipates that more people may pay attention to his progress and could view him a bit differently. Since that Houston series, he’s been lauded for his defensive efforts and has drawn praise from his peers, notably Harden.
“Now people don’t just look at me as an undrafted player,” Dort said. “The fact that I did all of that this season — that kind of changed the way people look at me.”


fivethirthyeight--2020-12-07--Don’t Believe Anything The 2020 Exit Polls Tell You

Since the 2020 election , you may have seen headlines make bold claims about how certain demographic groups voted .
@ @ @ @ @ explains , it ’ s always difficult to figure out trends in voter preferences — @ @ @ @ @ made it harder .
[ Related : Why Polling Has Gotten So Hard ]

Since the 2020 election, you may have seen headlines make bold claims about how certain demographic groups voted. As quantitative editor Laura Bronner explains, it’s always difficult to figure out trends in voter preferences — and a pandemic has only made it harder.
[Related: Why Polling Has Gotten So Hard]
How to make polls better | FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast


fivethirthyeight--2020-12-08--How The 2020 Election Changed The Electoral Map

Presidential elections are decided at the margins , meaning how a handful of states shift from one election to the next can be enough to cast one party out of the White House and bring the other one in .
This was certainly true in 2020 , as Joe Biden edged out President Trump thanks to narrow victories in key swing states such as Arizona , Georgia , Michigan , Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — all states Trump carried in 2016 .
However , it wasn ’ t a uniform swing .
The size and scope of these shifts varied , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Some formerly blue states returned to their pre-2016 status ; some once-red states lurched to the left , in some cases even voting Democratic for the first time in decades ; and some competitive states didn ’ t shift much at all .
Below , we ’ ve broken out how 16 battleground states voted since 2000 and what the ever-changing Electoral College map could mean going forward .
The “ blue wall ” went once again Democratic or Republican presidential vote share margin by state , from 2000 to 2020 Let ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ blue wall ” that Biden won back .
By winning Michigan , Pennsylvania and Wisconsin in addition to every state Hillary Clinton carried in 2016 , Biden clinched the presidency .
In fact , it looks like Wisconsin will be the tipping-point state in the Electoral College , or the state that delivered Biden the presidency , although we ’ re still awaiting the final vote certification in several states .
And even though these states ended up in Biden ’ s column , his margin of victory was pretty narrow .
He @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , Pennsylvania by a little more than 1 point , and Wisconsin by less than 1 point .
Granted , Trump carried each of these states by less than 1 point in 2016 , but Biden ’ s margins were slim and it 's unclear moving forward whether these states will remain blue .
Biden was able to win these three states by improving on Clinton ’ s margins in predominantly suburban and exurban counties around big cities like Detroit , Milwaukee and Philadelphia , where more white voters with a college degree @ @ @ @ @ @ @ trend that was true across the country .
In fact , it was thanks to gains in these types of places that Biden was able to offset Trump ’ s otherwise much stronger performance in rural areas , as well as Trump ’ s slight improvement in the city of Philadelphia proper .
Case in point : Even though Biden is on track to win by a slightly larger national margin than Barack Obama in 2012 , his margins in Michigan , Pennsylvania and Wisconsin were much smaller than Obama ’ s in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ these states have changed since 2008 , gradually ( or , in some cases , not so gradually ) shifting to the right .
Part of this boils down to demographics .
Non-Hispanic white voters without a four-year college degree , who make up a majority of the population in these three states,1 have moved sharply toward the GOP in the Trump era .
And while some pre-election polling suggested these voters might not back Trump to the same extent as they did four years ago , it appears that wasn ’ t @ @ @ @ @ @ @ college degree not only stuck with Trump in 2020 — in some places , they even supported him by even greater margins .
But Biden ’ s victory didn ’ t just involve winning back historically blue turf .
He also won by breaking through in two traditionally Republican states in the Sun Belt , Arizona and Georgia , which have gradually shifted blue in the Trump era .
Two Sun Belt states went for the first time in more than 20 years Democratic or Republican presidential vote share margin by state , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ then-GOP presidential nominee Mitt Romney by 9 points in 2012 , Arizona shifted more than 5 points toward the Democrats in 2016 and then another 4 points in 2020 to hand Biden a slim 0.3-point win .
Similarly , Georgia went for Romney by 8 points in 2012 , but then shifted about 3 points toward Democrats in 2016 before moving another 5 points in 2020 , which was enough for Biden to carry it by about 0.3 points .
The fact these two states ended up in Biden ’ s win column @ @ @ @ @ @ @ though , as the 2018 midterm elections foreshadowed Biden ’ s potential to carry each state .
Democrats won a U.S. Senate seat in Arizona for the first time since 1988 and lost Georgia ’ s governorship by about 1 point .
Biden won these two states in large part by improving upon Democrats ’ performance in each state ’ s metro area .
For instance , he won Maricopa County , which includes Phoenix and usually makes up 60 percent of Arizona ’ s total vote share , by 2 points .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ area , improving on Clinton ’ s margin in the 10 counties that make up the Atlanta Regional Commission by 9 points , enabling him to win Georgia .
Biden was also aided by the fact that both of these states are more racially diverse than states in the Upper Midwest .
While the same forces at work in Arizona and Georgia were also a part of the story in North Carolina and Texas , these two states still ultimately remained in Trump ’ s column .
Other southern states shifted to the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ or Republican presidential vote share margin by state , from 2000 to 2020 In both states , Biden did better in the more diverse and well-educated major metropolitan areas , but that proved insufficient .
However , he still made some gains .
In Texas , for instance , Biden became the first Democratic presidential candidate to carry Tarrant County ( Fort Worth ) since 1964 , and in North Carolina , he improved on Clinton ’ s margins in the two most populous counties in the state , Mecklenburg ( Charlotte ) @ @ @ @ @ @ @ even carried some suburban and exurban counties that Trump won in 2016 , such as Williamson County outside of Austin , Texas , and New Hanover County , North Carolina ( Wilmington ) .
But Trump still piled up a vote haul in Texas ’ s extensive rural areas and mid-sized cities large enough to overcome Biden ’ s improvement in the state ’ s major metro areas .
And in North Carolina , Biden lost ground in places where a large share of white voters don ’ t have a four-year college @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Clinton in some rural North Carolina counties with large Black populations and in many heavily Latino Texas counties along the U.S.-Mexico border .
Even as southern states like Georgia , North Carolina and Texas moved to the left in this election , one nearby battleground did not : Florida .
Democratic or Republican presidential vote share margin by state , from 2000 to 2020 Long regarded as a pivotal swing state , Florida was one of the few states that voted more Republican in 2020 , with Trump carrying Florida by more than @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 1 point four years ago .
Part of the reason Trump was able to bolster his margin in Florida and move the state further to the right was because of his improved showing among Hispanic voters , especially Cuban Americans .
Trump ultimately didn ’ t win urban counties like Miami-Dade , but it is where he improved the most , in part because of his increased support among Cuban American voters .
( Miami-Dade is roughly one-third Cuban , and areas where Cubans were more heavily concentrated saw the biggest swings toward @ @ @ @ @ @ @ vote share in Osceola County , which has a large Puerto Rican population , although not by nearly as much as in Miami-Dade .
But by narrowing his deficit with Hispanic voters in addition to once again running up huge margins in more rural parts of the state , Trump managed to win a larger share of Florida ’ s vote than he did in 2016 .
As Florida — generally considered a purple state — voted more Republican for the fourth cycle in a row , five other ostensibly purple states that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Some of them featured very tight races in 2016 , but the 2020 results , if anything , suggest that a couple may not really be battleground states moving forward — at least in presidential contests .
The `` `` states that easily went for Biden ... Democratic or Republican presidential vote share margin by state , from 2000 to 2020 ... including some states that went narrowly for Clinton After moving away from the GOP in the Obama era , and sticking with Democrats in 2016 , Colorado and Virginia went @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in 2020 , calling into question just how “ swingy ” they really are .
At the very least , the Trump GOP appears to be a poor fit in these states , as both have relatively diverse populations — Colorado ’ s population is about one-fifth Hispanic and Virginia ’ s is about one-fifth Black — and their white residents are more likely to hold a four-year college degree than those in any other battleground state .
What ’ s more , the big metropolitan areas in each state have also moved @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , with the Denver area and Washington , D.C. , suburbs in northern Virginia becoming deep blue .
As for the three other states that narrowly went for Clinton in 2016 — Maine , Minnesota and New Hampshire — we might not want to revoke their purple-state status just yet .
However , they did return to roughly where they were pre-2016 , backing Biden by high , single-digit margins .
Yes , each of these states are among the more rural states — and Trump did have an advantage in the most @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Maine ’ s 2nd Congressional District , where he won an electoral vote ) — but it still wasn ’ t enough to overcome the margins Biden ran up in the more populous parts of these states .
Not every battleground state saw movement in 2020 , though .
Iowa , Nevada and Ohio ended up with roughly the same margin as in 2016 , despite polls showing a close race in both Iowa and Ohio .
Some barely budged at all Democratic or Republican presidential vote share margin by state , from @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Trump ’ s rather decisive victories in Iowa and Ohio is that those states aren ’ t really battlegrounds anymore , and instead may have experienced a permanent shift to the right after being quite competitive prior to 2016 .
Considering both states have a large share of white voters without a college degree , this makes sense , as these results speak to just how entrenched this group has become with the GOP .
Biden did gain some ground in urban and suburban counties in these states , but less populous areas @ @ @ @ @ @ @ further to the right — keeping both states firmly in Republican hands .
Meanwhile , Biden did hold steady in Nevada , but the fact the state didn ’ t nudge toward the left could spell opportunity for Republicans down the road .
While Nevada is far more ethnically diverse than Iowa and Ohio ( its population is about 29 percent Hispanic ) , it ’ s similar to those two Midwestern states in that its white voters are far less likely to have a four-year college degree than in many other battleground @ @ @ @ @ @ @ slight improvement among Hispanic voters , that meant the president was able to reduce his deficit in Clark County ( Las Vegas ) , home to almost 70 percent of the state ’ s vote , by about 1 point while also still winning more votes in many of the state ’ s rural counties .
Biden ’ s gains in the Reno area , which has a higher share of white voters with a college degree , cancelled out shifts elsewhere in the state , but it ’ s possible Democrats could @ @ @ @ @ @ @ years ahead .
All in all , the shifts we witnessed in the 2020 election give us at least some clues to how the Electoral College map may look going forward .
Arizona and Georgia will likely now be seen as key swing states , while Colorado , Virginia , Iowa and Ohio may no longer be in the conversation around battleground states .
Meanwhile , Florida ’ s shift to the right could make it a firmer linchpin in Republican electoral strategy , as Democrats will likely turn to North Carolina and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ can make them winnable in the near future .
After all , as we saw in 2020 , it ’ s small shifts that can change the outcome of an election .

Presidential elections are decided at the margins, meaning how a handful of states shift from one election to the next can be enough to cast one party out of the White House and bring the other one in. This was certainly true in 2020, as Joe Biden edged out President Trump thanks to narrow victories in key swing states such as Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — all states Trump carried in 2016. However, it wasn’t a uniform swing. The size and scope of these shifts varied, and many may not be lasting. Some formerly blue states returned to their pre-2016 status; some once-red states lurched to the left, in some cases even voting Democratic for the first time in decades; and some competitive states didn’t shift much at all. Below, we’ve broken out how 16 battleground states voted since 2000 and what the ever-changing Electoral College map could mean going forward.
The “blue wall” went blue once again
Democratic or Republican presidential vote share margin by state, from 2000 to 2020
Pennsylvania Wisconsin Michigan
Let’s start with the much fabled “blue wall” that Biden won back. By winning Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin in addition to every state Hillary Clinton carried in 2016, Biden clinched the presidency. In fact, it looks like Wisconsin will be the tipping-point state in the Electoral College, or the state that delivered Biden the presidency, although we’re still awaiting the final vote certification in several states.
And even though these states ended up in Biden’s column, his margin of victory was pretty narrow. He won Michigan by about 3 percentage points, Pennsylvania by a little more than 1 point, and Wisconsin by less than 1 point. Granted, Trump carried each of these states by less than 1 point in 2016, but Biden’s margins were slim and it's unclear moving forward whether these states will remain blue.
Biden was able to win these three states by improving on Clinton’s margins in predominantly suburban and exurban counties around big cities like Detroit, Milwaukee and Philadelphia, where more white voters with a college degree backed the Democratic presidential ticket — a trend that was true across the country. In fact, it was thanks to gains in these types of places that Biden was able to offset Trump’s otherwise much stronger performance in rural areas, as well as Trump’s slight improvement in the city of Philadelphia proper. Case in point: Even though Biden is on track to win by a slightly larger national margin than Barack Obama in 2012, his margins in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin were much smaller than Obama’s in 2012.
This underscores just how much these states have changed since 2008, gradually (or, in some cases, not so gradually) shifting to the right. Part of this boils down to demographics. Non-Hispanic white voters without a four-year college degree, who make up a majority of the population in these three states,1 have moved sharply toward the GOP in the Trump era. And while some pre-election polling suggested these voters might not back Trump to the same extent as they did four years ago, it appears that wasn’t the case. White voters without a college degree not only stuck with Trump in 2020 — in some places, they even supported him by even greater margins.
But Biden’s victory didn’t just involve winning back historically blue turf. He also won by breaking through in two traditionally Republican states in the Sun Belt, Arizona and Georgia, which have gradually shifted blue in the Trump era.
Two Sun Belt states went blue for the first time in more than 20 years
Democratic or Republican presidential vote share margin by state, from 2000 to 2020
Arizona Georgia
After comfortably backing then-GOP presidential nominee Mitt Romney by 9 points in 2012, Arizona shifted more than 5 points toward the Democrats in 2016 and then another 4 points in 2020 to hand Biden a slim 0.3-point win. Similarly, Georgia went for Romney by 8 points in 2012, but then shifted about 3 points toward Democrats in 2016 before moving another 5 points in 2020, which was enough for Biden to carry it by about 0.3 points. The fact these two states ended up in Biden’s win column wasn’t a total surprise, though, as the 2018 midterm elections foreshadowed Biden’s potential to carry each state. Democrats won a U.S. Senate seat in Arizona for the first time since 1988 and lost Georgia’s governorship by about 1 point.
Biden won these two states in large part by improving upon Democrats’ performance in each state’s metro area. For instance, he won Maricopa County, which includes Phoenix and usually makes up 60 percent of Arizona’s total vote share, by 2 points. He also surged in the Atlanta metro area, improving on Clinton’s margin in the 10 counties that make up the Atlanta Regional Commission by 9 points, enabling him to win Georgia. Biden was also aided by the fact that both of these states are more racially diverse than states in the Upper Midwest.
While the same forces at work in Arizona and Georgia were also a part of the story in North Carolina and Texas, these two states still ultimately remained in Trump’s column.
Other southern states shifted to the left , but they didn't flip
Democratic or Republican presidential vote share margin by state, from 2000 to 2020
North Carolina Texas
In both states, Biden did better in the more diverse and well-educated major metropolitan areas, but that proved insufficient. However, he still made some gains. In Texas, for instance, Biden became the first Democratic presidential candidate to carry Tarrant County (Fort Worth) since 1964, and in North Carolina, he improved on Clinton’s margins in the two most populous counties in the state, Mecklenburg (Charlotte) and Wake (Raleigh). He even carried some suburban and exurban counties that Trump won in 2016, such as Williamson County outside of Austin, Texas, and New Hanover County, North Carolina (Wilmington).
But Trump still piled up a vote haul in Texas’s extensive rural areas and mid-sized cities large enough to overcome Biden’s improvement in the state’s major metro areas. And in North Carolina, Biden lost ground in places where a large share of white voters don’t have a four-year college degree. He also did worse than Clinton in some rural North Carolina counties with large Black populations and in many heavily Latino Texas counties along the U.S.-Mexico border.
Even as southern states like Georgia, North Carolina and Texas moved to the left in this election, one nearby battleground did not: Florida.
Is Florida a Republican state now?
Democratic or Republican presidential vote share margin by state, from 2000 to 2020
Florida
Long regarded as a pivotal swing state, Florida was one of the few states that voted more Republican in 2020, with Trump carrying Florida by more than 3 points after winning there by just 1 point four years ago.
Part of the reason Trump was able to bolster his margin in Florida and move the state further to the right was because of his improved showing among Hispanic voters, especially Cuban Americans. Trump ultimately didn’t win urban counties like Miami-Dade, but it is where he improved the most, in part because of his increased support among Cuban American voters. (Miami-Dade is roughly one-third Cuban, and areas where Cubans were more heavily concentrated saw the biggest swings toward Trump.) Trump also improved his vote share in Osceola County, which has a large Puerto Rican population, although not by nearly as much as in Miami-Dade.
But by narrowing his deficit with Hispanic voters in addition to once again running up huge margins in more rural parts of the state, Trump managed to win a larger share of Florida’s vote than he did in 2016. As Florida — generally considered a purple state — voted more Republican for the fourth cycle in a row, five other ostensibly purple states that in the end went pretty decisively blue. Some of them featured very tight races in 2016, but the 2020 results, if anything, suggest that a couple may not really be battleground states moving forward — at least in presidential contests.
The " purple " states that easily went for Biden ...
Democratic or Republican presidential vote share margin by state, from 2000 to 2020
Colorado Virginia
... including some states that went narrowly for Clinton
Maine Minnesota New Hampshire
After moving away from the GOP in the Obama era, and sticking with Democrats in 2016, Colorado and Virginia went for Biden by more than 10 points in 2020, calling into question just how “swingy” they really are. At the very least, the Trump GOP appears to be a poor fit in these states, as both have relatively diverse populations — Colorado’s population is about one-fifth Hispanic and Virginia’s is about one-fifth Black — and their white residents are more likely to hold a four-year college degree than those in any other battleground state. What’s more, the big metropolitan areas in each state have also moved sharply toward the Democrats in recent years, with the Denver area and Washington, D.C., suburbs in northern Virginia becoming deep blue.
As for the three other states that narrowly went for Clinton in 2016 — Maine, Minnesota and New Hampshire — we might not want to revoke their purple-state status just yet. However, they did return to roughly where they were pre-2016, backing Biden by high, single-digit margins. Yes, each of these states are among the more rural states — and Trump did have an advantage in the most rural parts of these states (see Maine’s 2nd Congressional District, where he won an electoral vote) — but it still wasn’t enough to overcome the margins Biden ran up in the more populous parts of these states.
Not every battleground state saw movement in 2020, though. Iowa, Nevada and Ohio ended up with roughly the same margin as in 2016, despite polls showing a close race in both Iowa and Ohio.
Some swing states barely budged at all
Democratic or Republican presidential vote share margin by state, from 2000 to 2020
Nevada Iowa Ohio
One way to read Trump’s rather decisive victories in Iowa and Ohio is that those states aren’t really battlegrounds anymore, and instead may have experienced a permanent shift to the right after being quite competitive prior to 2016. Considering both states have a large share of white voters without a college degree, this makes sense, as these results speak to just how entrenched this group has become with the GOP. Biden did gain some ground in urban and suburban counties in these states, but less populous areas stuck with Trump — or even moved further to the right — keeping both states firmly in Republican hands.
Meanwhile, Biden did hold steady in Nevada, but the fact the state didn’t nudge toward the left could spell opportunity for Republicans down the road. While Nevada is far more ethnically diverse than Iowa and Ohio (its population is about 29 percent Hispanic), it’s similar to those two Midwestern states in that its white voters are far less likely to have a four-year college degree than in many other battleground states. Coupled with Trump’s slight improvement among Hispanic voters, that meant the president was able to reduce his deficit in Clark County (Las Vegas), home to almost 70 percent of the state’s vote, by about 1 point while also still winning more votes in many of the state’s rural counties. Biden’s gains in the Reno area, which has a higher share of white voters with a college degree, cancelled out shifts elsewhere in the state, but it’s possible Democrats could have trouble holding onto Nevada in the years ahead.
All in all, the shifts we witnessed in the 2020 election give us at least some clues to how the Electoral College map may look going forward. Arizona and Georgia will likely now be seen as key swing states, while Colorado, Virginia, Iowa and Ohio may no longer be in the conversation around battleground states. Meanwhile, Florida’s shift to the right could make it a firmer linchpin in Republican electoral strategy, as Democrats will likely turn to North Carolina and Texas in the hopes that demographic change can make them winnable in the near future. After all, as we saw in 2020, it’s small shifts that can change the outcome of an election.