fivethirthyeight--2020-08-28--Separating MLB’s Buyers From Sellers At The Weirdest Trade Deadline Ever

The 2020 MLB season is barely a month old , and the trade deadline is already upon us .
What ’ s often a delicate challenge in balancing risk versus reward under normal circumstances is made even more complicated this year by a shortened schedule , an expanded playoff format , reduced revenues with which to pay future salaries , and a lack of in-person scouting or minor-league baseball to assess prospects .
All of that could make this the most bizarre trade deadline in history — if not exactly the most active .
We can ’ t promise a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ uncertainty of this year ’ s trade market .
But we do have an algorithm to help identify which teams should be buying or selling .
We call it the Doyle Number , and it represents how many future wins above replacement in talent ( over the next six seasons ) a team should be willing to give up in exchange for each win of talent added in 2020 , in order to balance their total expected championships across each time frame .
A higher Doyle Number means a team should buy ; @ @ @ @ @ @ @ means a team should give up two future WAR for each WAR they add now .
A lower Doyle , on the other hand , means a team should sell ; a Doyle approaching zero means there ’ s literally no amount of future talent that would make sense to sell for a win now .
And teams around a Doyle of 1.00 are on the fence — maybe it makes sense to buy , maybe it makes sense to sell .
This year , I updated our usual Doyle model to reflect @ @ @ @ @ @ @ postseason field — and as you might expect , the results give us a lot less certainty than usual about each team ’ s ideal strategy : Generally , a Doyle Number above 2.00 would lead baseball — indicating a team with World Series aspirations so strong that they should be willing to give up double the future talent for each win added in pursuit of a current championship .
And at each of the past two deadlines , three teams had a Doyle north of 2.00 ; the two years before that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ higher .
This season , however , no team checks in with a Doyle of 2.00 : The Dodgers are highest , at 1.92 — a number that would have ranked fourth last year — followed by the Yankees ( 1.75 ) and Astros ( 1.67 ) .
So there are fewer truly overwhelming buyers this season , though that doesn ’ t mean there are fewer teams who could stand to improve at the deadline .
This year , there are 12 teams with a Doyle of 1.00 or higher , indicating @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 2020 .
Contrast that with 2019 , 2017 or 2016 , when only seven teams had a Doyle of at least 1.00 .
Meanwhile , nine more teams have a Doyle between 0.47 and 0.99 , inclusive — indicating teams that should probably sell but could buy if the price was right .
With so many clubs in the playoff hunt at the deadline , there are a lot more teams than usual who can at least make the case for a big splash ahead of the stretch run .
Just like the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ championship odds across the league , so too did all of 2020 ’ s peculiarities conspire to flatten out the distribution of Doyle numbers .
That means each team faces a lot more uncertainty about whether to buy or sell , especially when it comes to the large middle group of teams on the fence about which strategy is best .
Right now , there are six teams that could come out ahead in terms of total expected championships if they either bought or sold at least 2 WAR of talent before the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ San Diego Padres , Chicago White Sox , Washington Nationals , New York Mets and Milwaukee Brewers .
But different paths led them to that place : The Padres and White Sox are both outperforming expectations and have very good playoff odds but merely OK Elo ratings , meaning they could use talent injections to gear up for the postseason .
The Nationals , Mets and Brewers , on the other hand , look good on paper but have gotten off to poor starts ; they might benefit from either adding talent for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to reload for the future .
( The Cardinals look solid on paper and have decent playoff odds , so they should probably only sell if the offer blows them away . )
Even the next tier of teams could potentially buy , though it would be risky .
The Colorado Rockies , Toronto Blue Jays and Philadelphia Phillies are all close enough in the expanded playoff picture that , if they somehow swung a trade to add 8 WAR of current talent at a fair price , they ’ d come out @ @ @ @ @ @ @ But such trades might be impossible to find , and the team would be much more likely to come out ahead if they just sold that much talent instead .
Philly , for example , could ship catcher J.T .
Realmuto — around a 6-WAR talent — to a contender and reasonably expect a surplus of 11 extra WAR over the next six years , given how much more his current performance would be worth to a higher-Doyle team than to the Phillies .
This is all well and good , in theory @ @ @ @ @ @ @ coldly identifying teams that would come out ahead in the short or long run by either buying or selling talent , assuming every team could find an appropriate trading counterpart .
But will that be true this year ?
There are admittedly a lot of unusual obstacles to that in 2020 .
Enough teams are in the playoff hunt that the number of potential buyers dwarfs the number of sellers , which will dramatically affect the trade market .
And among the obvious sellers , there aren ’ t exactly many star names @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Sox are actually bona fide sellers .
Add in the relative lack of knowledge about prospects this year , given there ’ s no minor-league season , and you could see MLB ’ s already risk-averse general managers being even more hesitant to pull the trigger on a deal this season .
So there are a lot of reasons for teams to keep quiet as the deadline approaches .
( Mike Clevinger , arguably the biggest name available at the deadline , might be moved due to a night out partying in Chicago @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ) Doyle says a lot of teams should be in the market to pounce this year if the offer is right , but that also means trading partners could be hard to find .
Yes , the 2020 deadline is going to be weird , and it might even be a total dud — but would we expect anything else from this strange season ?

The 2020 MLB season is barely a month old, and the trade deadline is already upon us. What’s often a delicate challenge in balancing risk versus reward under normal circumstances is made even more complicated this year by a shortened schedule, an expanded playoff format, reduced revenues with which to pay future salaries, and a lack of in-person scouting or minor-league baseball to assess prospects. All of that could make this the most bizarre trade deadline in history — if not exactly the most active.
We can’t promise a magic formula to help teams navigate the uncertainty of this year’s trade market. But we do have an algorithm to help identify which teams should be buying or selling. We call it the Doyle Number, and it represents how many future wins above replacement in talent (over the next six seasons) a team should be willing to give up in exchange for each win of talent added in 2020, in order to balance their total expected championships across each time frame.
A higher Doyle Number means a team should buy; for example, a Doyle of 2.00 means a team should give up two future WAR for each WAR they add now. A lower Doyle, on the other hand, means a team should sell; a Doyle approaching zero means there’s literally no amount of future talent that would make sense to sell for a win now. And teams around a Doyle of 1.00 are on the fence — maybe it makes sense to buy, maybe it makes sense to sell. This year, I updated our usual Doyle model to reflect both the shorter season and the larger postseason field — and as you might expect, the results give us a lot less certainty than usual about each team’s ideal strategy:
Who are the 2020 trade deadline’s buyers and sellers? Postseason chances (according to the FiveThirtyEight prediction model) and Doyle Numbers* for 2020 MLB teams ODDS FOR… ODDS FOR… TEAM PLAYOFFS WIN WS DOYLE TEAM PLAYOFFS WIN WS DOYLE Dodgers >99% 27% 1.92 Rockies 45% <1% 0.67 Yankees >99 14 1.75 Blue Jays 59 <1 0.56 Astros 97 8 1.67 Phillies 39 <1 0.55 Twins >99 8 1.51 Marlins 40 <1 0.49 Rays >99 7 1.47 Diamondbacks 23 <1 0.48 Athletics >99 5 1.34 Reds 25 <1 0.47 Indians 98 4 1.32 Giants 30 <1 0.29 Braves 92 5 1.31 Red Sox 7 <1 0.10 Cubs 94 4 1.18 Rangers 8 <1 0.06 Cardinals 77 2 1.09 Orioles 11 <1 0.06 Padres 89 3 1.08 Angels 4 <1 0.05 White Sox 95 2 1.00 Royals 11 <1 0.05 Nationals 40 2 0.99 Tigers 6 <1 0.04 Mets 41 2 0.90 Mariners 6 <1 0.03 Brewers 63 2 0.90 Pirates 2 <1 0.01 *The Doyle Number represents how many wins of future talent a team should trade away now for one extra win of talent in 2020. Playoff and World Series odds are as of Aug. 26. SOURCE: FANGRAPHS
Generally, a Doyle Number above 2.00 would lead baseball — indicating a team with World Series aspirations so strong that they should be willing to give up double the future talent for each win added in pursuit of a current championship. And at each of the past two deadlines, three teams had a Doyle north of 2.00; the two years before that each saw two teams at 2.00 or higher. This season, however, no team checks in with a Doyle of 2.00: The Dodgers are highest, at 1.92 — a number that would have ranked fourth last year — followed by the Yankees (1.75) and Astros (1.67). So there are fewer truly overwhelming buyers this season, though that doesn’t mean there are fewer teams who could stand to improve at the deadline.
This year, there are 12 teams with a Doyle of 1.00 or higher, indicating teams who should probably be buyers in 2020. Contrast that with 2019, 2017 or 2016, when only seven teams had a Doyle of at least 1.00. Meanwhile, nine more teams have a Doyle between 0.47 and 0.99, inclusive — indicating teams that should probably sell but could buy if the price was right. With so many clubs in the playoff hunt at the deadline, there are a lot more teams than usual who can at least make the case for a big splash ahead of the stretch run.
Just like the change in playoff format flattened out the championship odds across the league, so too did all of 2020’s peculiarities conspire to flatten out the distribution of Doyle numbers. That means each team faces a lot more uncertainty about whether to buy or sell, especially when it comes to the large middle group of teams on the fence about which strategy is best.
Right now, there are six teams that could come out ahead in terms of total expected championships if they either bought or sold at least 2 WAR of talent before the deadline: the St. Louis Cardinals, San Diego Padres, Chicago White Sox, Washington Nationals, New York Mets and Milwaukee Brewers. But different paths led them to that place: The Padres and White Sox are both outperforming expectations and have very good playoff odds but merely OK Elo ratings, meaning they could use talent injections to gear up for the postseason. The Nationals, Mets and Brewers, on the other hand, look good on paper but have gotten off to poor starts; they might benefit from either adding talent for a September playoff push or selling parts to reload for the future. (The Cardinals look solid on paper and have decent playoff odds, so they should probably only sell if the offer blows them away.)
These teams would benefit from buying or selling Net benefit in total long-term wins for adding or subtracting current-season wins above replacement talent* for 2020 MLB teams at the trade deadline Net Benefit (in wins) for trade of… Team Doyle -8 WAR -5 WAR -2 WAR +2 WAR +5 WAR +8 WAR Athletics 1.34 +0.8 -0.2 -0.3 +1.0 +4.0 +9.8 Indians 1.32 +0.9 -0.1 -0.3 +0.9 +3.8 +9.4 Braves 1.31 +1.0 -0.1 -0.3 +0.9 +3.8 +9.4 Cubs 1.18 +2.0 +0.5 -0.1 +0.6 +2.9 +7.5 Cardinals 1.09 +3.1 +1.0 +0.1 +0.4 +2.3 +6.5 Padres 1.08 +2.9 +0.9 +0.1 +0.4 +2.2 +6.2 White Sox 1.00 +3.8 +1.4 +0.2 +0.2 +1.7 +5.0 Nationals 0.99 +5.7 +2.1 +0.3 +0.3 +2.2 +6.6 Mets 0.90 +6.9 +2.7 +0.5 +0.1 +1.5 +5.3 Brewers 0.90 +6.6 +2.6 +0.5 +0.1 +1.3 +4.7 Rockies 0.67 +11.7 +5.3 +1.4 -0.5 -0.3 +1.4 Blue Jays 0.56 +16.3 +7.6 +2.1 -0.7 -1.0 +0.0 Phillies 0.55 +17.6 +8.1 +2.2 -0.7 -0.9 +0.5 *Assumes teams trade present talent for future talent in a way that balances total expected championships. SOURCE: FANGRAPHS
Even the next tier of teams could potentially buy, though it would be risky. The Colorado Rockies, Toronto Blue Jays and Philadelphia Phillies are all close enough in the expanded playoff picture that, if they somehow swung a trade to add 8 WAR of current talent at a fair price, they’d come out ahead in terms of expected championships. But such trades might be impossible to find, and the team would be much more likely to come out ahead if they just sold that much talent instead. Philly, for example, could ship catcher J.T. Realmuto — around a 6-WAR talent — to a contender and reasonably expect a surplus of 11 extra WAR over the next six years, given how much more his current performance would be worth to a higher-Doyle team than to the Phillies.
(Note that other teams sometimes lumped among buyers, such as the surging San Francisco Giants, couldn’t conceivably add enough talent where Doyle would think it made more sense to buy than sell. Of course, Doyle thought the same thing last season!)
This is all well and good, in theory — Doyle does a good job of coldly identifying teams that would come out ahead in the short or long run by either buying or selling talent, assuming every team could find an appropriate trading counterpart. But will that be true this year? There are admittedly a lot of unusual obstacles to that in 2020.
Enough teams are in the playoff hunt that the number of potential buyers dwarfs the number of sellers, which will dramatically affect the trade market. And among the obvious sellers, there aren’t exactly many star names potentially on offer, unless the Red Sox are actually bona fide sellers . Add in the relative lack of knowledge about prospects this year, given there’s no minor-league season, and you could see MLB’s already risk-averse general managers being even more hesitant to pull the trigger on a deal this season.
So there are a lot of reasons for teams to keep quiet as the deadline approaches. (Mike Clevinger, arguably the biggest name available at the deadline, might be moved due to a night out partying in Chicago, rather than strictly baseball reasons.) Doyle says a lot of teams should be in the market to pounce this year if the offer is right, but that also means trading partners could be hard to find. Yes, the 2020 deadline is going to be weird, and it might even be a total dud — but would we expect anything else from this strange season?
Check out our latest MLB predictions.


fivethirthyeight--2020-08-31--Why Minnesota Could Be The Next Midwestern State To Go Red

This is the third in a series of articles examining the politics and demographics of 2020 ’ s expected swing states .
In the fabled “ blue wall ” — the collection of historically Democratic states that pundits ( wrongly ) assumed gave Hillary Clinton an Electoral College advantage in 2016 — Minnesota is the cornerstone .
The Democratic candidate has won Minnesota in 11 straight presidential elections , the longest active streak in the country .
What ’ s more , no Republican has won any statewide election in Minnesota since 2006 — not for Senate , not for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
It ’ s tempting to conclude from this that Minnesota is a safe Democratic state .
But Minnesota is much more evenly divided than that record suggests : For example , it came within a couple percentage points of voting for now-President Trump in 2016 .
And as Michigan , Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — which voted Democratic in every presidential election from 1992 to 2012 — showed in 2016 , streaks are meant to be broken .
Most ominously for Democrats , there is evidence that Minnesota is becoming redder over time @ @ @ @ @ @ @ point .
In 1984 , the state was 18.2 points more Democratic than the nation as a whole .
But in 2016 , for the first time since 1952 , Minnesota voted more Republican than the rest of the U.S. And Minnesota may be even further right in 2020 .
According to the current FiveThirtyEight forecast , Joe Biden is on track to defeat Trump by 4.2 points in Minnesota — 1.9 points better for Trump than our forecast for the national popular vote .
What explains Minnesota ’ s rightward shift ?
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ and older are non-Hispanic white and lack a bachelor ’ s degree , a demographic with which Republicans — and especially Trump — have been gaining ground .
Historically , though , Minnesota ’ s predominantly white , working-class population has actually been quite progressive : The state ’ s many German and Scandinavian immigrants ( the biggest ethnic groups in Minnesota are German Americans , at 33 percent of the population , and Norwegian Americans , at 15 percent ) brought with them their progressive values and faith in government , and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , more than 23 percent of Minnesota employees were members of a union ) rallied blue-collar workers around the Democratic Party .
In fact , Minnesota ’ s Democratic Party isn ’ t called the Democratic Party at all — it is the Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party , reflecting its historical growth out of those two constituencies .
But in recent elections , Democrats ’ pro-environment and anti-gun positions have alienated these voters in places like the Iron Range , an ancestrally Democratic mining region , and in 2016 Trump was able to tap into @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Democrats went from carrying Minnesota by 7.7 points in 2012 to carrying it by just 1.5 in 2016 .
Tellingly , the counties that shifted the most toward Trump were also the counties with the highest concentrations of white people without a college degree .
As you can see , 2016 also contributed to Minnesota ’ s ongoing urban-rural realignment .
One of the most important divides in Minnesota politics is between the diverse , cosmopolitan Twin Cities metro area and “ Greater Minnesota , ” whose residents often feel short-changed relative @ @ @ @ @ @ @ every county in Greater Minnesota got redder , and 19 of them flipped from Barack Obama to Trump .
However , there is a silver lining for Democrats : Several counties in the metro actually got bluer in 2016 , powered by formerly Republican suburbs like Eden Prairie , Edina and Chanhassen .
Still , it wasn ’ t enough to counterbalance Democrats ’ losses in Greater Minnesota , so the state shifted toward Republicans overall .
So , robbed of the formula that fueled them for so long — an uncharacteristically strong @ @ @ @ @ @ @ white voters — Democrats are now in serious danger of losing Minnesota for the first time since 1972 .
It might not happen this year : Biden , after all , leads by 4.2 points in our forecast there .
But that is more about Biden ’ s strength nationally than Minnesota being blue .
Indeed , Minnesota is now one of the likeliest states to be the Electoral College tipping point — the state that delivers the next president his decisive 270th electoral vote .
So assuming that future presidential elections are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to be one of the main swing states going forward — and know that the next time a Republican wins the White House , there ’ s a good chance Minnesota ’ s blue streak will have come to a long-awaited end .

This is the third in a series of articles examining the politics and demographics of 2020’s expected swing states.
In the fabled “blue wall” — the collection of historically Democratic states that pundits (wrongly) assumed gave Hillary Clinton an Electoral College advantage in 2016 — Minnesota is the cornerstone. The Democratic candidate has won Minnesota in 11 straight presidential elections, the longest active streak in the country. What’s more, no Republican has won any statewide election in Minnesota since 2006 — not for Senate, not for governor, not even for state auditor.
It’s tempting to conclude from this that Minnesota is a safe Democratic state. But Minnesota is much more evenly divided than that record suggests: For example, it came within a couple percentage points of voting for now-President Trump in 2016. And as Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — which voted Democratic in every presidential election from 1992 to 2012 — showed in 2016, streaks are meant to be broken.
Most ominously for Democrats, there is evidence that Minnesota is becoming redder over time, with 2016 being a particular inflection point. In 1984, the state was 18.2 points more Democratic than the nation as a whole. But in 2016, for the first time since 1952, Minnesota voted more Republican than the rest of the U.S.
Even as it votes for Democrats, Minnesota shifts right How Minnesota has voted relative to the nation as a whole in presidential elections since 1976 Minnesota Election Dem. GOP Margin National Margin Minn. Lean 1976 54.9% 42.0% D+12.9 D+2.1 D+10.8 1980 46.5 42.6 D+3.9 R+9.4 D+13.4 1984 49.7 49.5 D+0.2 R+18.0 D+18.2 1988 52.9 45.9 D+7.0 R+7.6 D+14.6 1992 43.5 31.9 D+11.6 D+5.8 D+5.8 1996 51.1 35.0 D+16.1 D+8.5 D+7.6 2000 47.9 45.5 D+2.4 D+0.5 D+1.9 2004 51.1 47.6 D+3.5 R+2.4 D+5.9 2008 54.1 43.8 D+10.2 D+7.3 D+3.0 2012 52.7 45.0 D+7.7 D+3.9 D+3.8 2016 46.4 44.9 D+1.5 D+2.2 R+0.7 Sources: Dave Leip’s Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections, Minnesota Secretary of State, U.S. House of Representatives
And Minnesota may be even further right in 2020. According to the current FiveThirtyEight forecast, Joe Biden is on track to defeat Trump by 4.2 points in Minnesota — 1.9 points better for Trump than our forecast for the national popular vote.
What explains Minnesota’s rightward shift? Fifty-three percent of the population age 25 and older are non-Hispanic white and lack a bachelor’s degree, a demographic with which Republicans — and especially Trump — have been gaining ground. Historically, though, Minnesota’s predominantly white, working-class population has actually been quite progressive: The state’s many German and Scandinavian immigrants (the biggest ethnic groups in Minnesota are German Americans, at 33 percent of the population, and Norwegian Americans, at 15 percent) brought with them their progressive values and faith in government, and its active labor movement (in 1983, more than 23 percent of Minnesota employees were members of a union) rallied blue-collar workers around the Democratic Party. In fact, Minnesota’s Democratic Party isn’t called the Democratic Party at all — it is the Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party, reflecting its historical growth out of those two constituencies.
But in recent elections, Democrats’ pro-environment and anti-gun positions have alienated these voters in places like the Iron Range, an ancestrally Democratic mining region, and in 2016 Trump was able to tap into their racial and economic grievances as well. Democrats went from carrying Minnesota by 7.7 points in 2012 to carrying it by just 1.5 in 2016. Tellingly, the counties that shifted the most toward Trump were also the counties with the highest concentrations of white people without a college degree.
As you can see, 2016 also contributed to Minnesota’s ongoing urban-rural realignment. One of the most important divides in Minnesota politics is between the diverse, cosmopolitan Twin Cities metro area and “Greater Minnesota,” whose residents often feel short-changed relative to the metro. In 2016, every county in Greater Minnesota got redder, and 19 of them flipped from Barack Obama to Trump.
However, there is a silver lining for Democrats: Several counties in the metro actually got bluer in 2016, powered by formerly Republican suburbs like Eden Prairie, Edina and Chanhassen. Still, it wasn’t enough to counterbalance Democrats’ losses in Greater Minnesota, so the state shifted toward Republicans overall.
So, robbed of the formula that fueled them for so long — an uncharacteristically strong performance in rural areas and among non-college-educated white voters — Democrats are now in serious danger of losing Minnesota for the first time since 1972. It might not happen this year: Biden, after all, leads by 4.2 points in our forecast there. But that is more about Biden’s strength nationally than Minnesota being blue.
Indeed, Minnesota is now one of the likeliest states to be the Electoral College tipping point — the state that delivers the next president his decisive 270th electoral vote. So assuming that future presidential elections are closer contests, be prepared for Minnesota to be one of the main swing states going forward — and know that the next time a Republican wins the White House, there’s a good chance Minnesota’s blue streak will have come to a long-awaited end.


fivethirthyeight--2020-08-31--New U.S. Citizens Were One Of The Fastest-Growing Voting Blocs. But Not This Year.

On a Wednesday morning in late February , Annie Johnson Benifield was already through the doors of the M.O .
Campbell Education Center , in Houston by 5:30 a.m .
The occasion was a once-a-month naturalization ceremony , where anywhere between 1,700 to 2,600 legal permanent residents swear a 140-word oath in order to become U.S. citizens .
The ceremony wouldn ’ t begin until later in the morning , but Benifield and the 40 or so volunteers from the League of Women Voters ( LWV ) had arrived early to set up .
The League is the official registration @ @ @ @ @ @ @ country .
And before the pandemic , these events happened frequently , taking place once , or sometimes twice , each month at U.S .
Citizenship and Immigration Services ( USCIS ) field offices as well as some federal courthouses .
The League had predicted that , in 2020 , it would interact with up to 200,000 new citizens and their family members in 1,000 events across the country .
The Houston chapter specifically had an 85 to 90 percent success rate in new voter registrations , for an annual average of 30,000 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ But this year , with the widespread interest in the presidential elections , she thought registrations might crack 40,000 .
“ I was getting excited and feeling giddy about it , ” she told FiveThirtyEight , “ but COVID-19 had a different plan.
” Newly naturalized citizens are one of the fastest-growing voting groups in the United States .
In February , the Pew Research Center published a report that found that 23.2 million naturalized citizens would be eligible to vote in November ’ s presidential elections , making up a record 10 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ according to a February analysis by the National Partnership for New Americans ( NPNA ) , a coalition of immigrant advocacy organizations , 860,000 new Americans were expected to have naturalized by November before the pandemic brought things to a halt .
But not all eligible voters actually vote , and naturalized Americans have historically trailed native-born Americans at the polls .
In 2016 , for example , 54 percent of naturalized citizens voted in the general election compared with 62 percent of native-born citizens .
According to studies , one explanation is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ this year : voter registration .
It ’ s not a lack of desire to participate , the study finds , but rather it ’ s an unfamiliarity with how or where to register , registration deadlines , and language issues .
Once these barriers are overcome and new Americans are registered , they tend to vote at the same rates as native-born members of their demographic group .
Take someone like Raz Ahmadi , a new U.S. citizen from Afghanistan .
For the past five years , he has worked as an @ @ @ @ @ @ @ environmental policies in Virginia .
And this year , after completing the naturalization process , which had been interrupted by COVID-19 , in mid-July , Ahmadi will finally be able to cast his own ballot .
Though he has already been involved in politics , Ahmadi says that being able to actually participate is a whole new feeling for him .
Being “ empowered to vote , mentally , it gives you a lot of power , ” he says .
“ It just personalizes a lot of things .
Now you ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ But even before COVID-19 , the wait time for citizenship applications had hit new highs under the Trump administration .
According to USCIS numbers , the naturalization process averaged 8.8 months in 2020 , compared with 5.6 months in 2016 and a peak of 10.3 months in 2018 , though in some cases , it could take up to three years .
COVID-19 exacerbated this delay .
On March 18 , USCIS temporarily shut down all public-facing activities , including interviews for visas , asylum and naturalization as well as oath ceremonies .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ virtual alternatives , bringing much of U.S. immigration to a halt .
For each day that USCIS remained closed , 2,100 potential new voters would be disenfranchised , according to a frequently cited report by Boundless , an immigration-services company co-founded by an Obama administration official .
USCIS field offices reopened on June 4 and prioritized in-person oath-swearing ceremonies .
Some field offices held drive-through ceremonies , while others held more frequent , but smaller , indoor or outdoor ceremonies .
By the end of July , the agency says that it has @ @ @ @ @ @ @ delayed by its closures , as well as an additional 7,905 oath ceremonies not scheduled before the pandemic .
Still , these 7,905 new naturalizations in July represent a twelve-fold decrease than the typical 95,850 naturalizations completed each month .
So even though in-person oath ceremonies are continuing , “ the fact of the matter was that there was already a backlog of people waiting to be naturalized , ” says Jeanette Senecal , who oversees voter-engagement programs at the League of Women Voters , “ so unless USCIS is both increasing the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ at each one and offering more ceremonies , there ’ s really no way they can make that up.
” From the outset of USCIS ’ s closure , a diverse group of bipartisan policymakers , immigration lawyers , community advocates , and third-party voter-registration organizations like the League of Women Voters have called on USCIS to follow in the footsteps of other federal government agencies in moving activities online .
In June , the USCIS Ombudsman ’ s Office , a small , independent office in the Department of Homeland Security that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for USCIS , weighed in , calling remote oath ceremonies , held via video teleconferencing , “ a legally permissible and operationally feasible solution ” for the agency in the short term and a potential long-term solution to “ increase efficiencies ” in its annual report to Congress .
But still , the USCIS rejected a virtual option .
Spokespeople told FiveThirtyEight repeatedly , both before and after the Ombudsman ’ s report , that “ the statutory language mandated by Congress contains certain requirements that are logistically difficult for USCIS to administer @ @ @ @ @ @ @ says that they ’ ve taken steps to clear the backlog in oath ceremonies , but these ceremonies are not the only steps in the naturalization process that are delayed .
Sarah Pierce , a policy analyst with the Migration Policy Institute , calls USCIS ’ s emphasis on clearing the backlog in oath ceremonies “ really misleading ” because it wasn ’ t just oath ceremonies that were paused during this time .
“ It was also interviews , which meant that naturalization applications weren ’ t being processed , ” said @ @ @ @ @ @ @ was also trying to expedite processing of naturalization applications , there was “ no way ” the agency was going to be able to naturalize the same number of people by the election .
By the end of March , there were more than 700,000 naturalization applications waiting to be processed .
Dan Hetlage , a USCIS spokesperson , told FiveThirtyEight that the agency has also “ prioritized rescheduling interviews for naturalization and adjustment of status that were postponed , ” but as of early August , immigration lawyers I spoke with said @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to schedule naturalization interviews .
There are currently 315,000 naturalization applicants awaiting their interviews , which on average occur two months before an oath ceremony , according to a Boundless analysis .
In two months it will be October , which is the deadline for voter registration in many states .
That means an unknown but likely significant number of those 315,000 applicants will not naturalize soon enough to register by October and vote in November .
It ’ s not just USCIS that has changed as a result of the pandemic .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ Institute cataloged 63 executive actions undertaken by the Trump administration since March that have further restricted immigration .
Pierce , who co-authored the report , says that these changes represented some of the Trump administration ’ s “ boldest actions on immigration to date ” that , in some cases , they had long been pushing but had been unable to achieve .
This includes a travel ban on 31 countries , the end of asylum at the southern border , and the suspension of immigration for many family- and employment-based categories as @ @ @ @ @ @ @ During an unprecedented pandemic , which includes both public health and economic crises , you would expect immigration to take a backseat , ” says Pierce , “ but rather , the opposite has been true.
” When USCIS offices reopened on June 4 , organizations like the League of Women Voters scrambled to help with voter-registration efforts .
Benifield , from LWV-Houston , recalls reaching out multiple times to the local field office .
“ We were prepared to go and set up in the parking lot … if they allowed us @ @ @ @ @ @ @ end , her persistence paid off .
“ The branch chief … agreed that we could actually bring cards ” for officials administering the naturalization ceremony to give out .
The League can not be on-site to register applicants directly because of the continued threat the pandemic poses , but they can drop off folders containing voter-registration packets to the local field office to be distributed at the socially distant ceremonies .
USCIS is legally mandated to provide , at a minimum , voter-registration forms at each naturalization ceremony .
Benifiled said she @ @ @ @ @ @ @ but she remained unsure how effective this form of voter registration would be .
“ Clearly , it will not be 30,000 like … last year.
” This is affecting the League ’ s activities across the country .
“ Spring and summer are usually really busy seasons for voter registration , but especially in presidential years , we usually see massive increases… [ in ] naturalization ceremonies , ” says Senecal , from the League ’ s national office .
Volunteers understand the public health prerogatives that prevent them from conducting registrations @ @ @ @ @ @ @ older and at higher risk for COVID-19 , but many , like Benifield , are concerned about the effect on registration numbers and broader civic engagement .
“ The opportunity cost is not just registration , ” adds Senecal , “ it ’ s also voter education.
” At a basic level , in-person voter registration provides necessary information in native languages , says Nancy Xiong , the communications director for Hmong Innovating Politics , a California-based nonprofit that aims to increase civic participation among Southeast Asian Americans .
Native language materials are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ especially in already marginalized communities , have challenges with English .
Even when they are provided with translated voting materials , Xiong adds , these materials “ may not always be helpful because county/state offices do a word-to-word translation , without much context.
” This can create the perception that these communities are uninterested in politics , leading to “ big campaigns never or rarely contact [ ing ] the Southeast Asian community , ” Xiong says , even though 92 percent of the 310,000 Hmong Americans are citizens , one of the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 45 percent are eligible to vote .
And this perpetuates a cycle of disenfranchisement , at the very moment when immigrant voters might be especially incentivized to vote , if previous elections in which immigration was a hot topic are any indication .
In 2008 , presidential candidate Mitt Romney ’ s suggestion that immigrants should “ self-deport ” and hardline views on DACA , for example , have been linked to a jump in voter registrations between 2008 to 2012 .
Sundrop Carter , the executive director of the Pennsylvania Immigration and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ partners with the Philadelphia USCIS field office as its official third-party registration organization for naturalization ceremonies , told me part of the problem is that : “ [ B ] y definition new Americans have no voter history.
” As a result , she said , they ’ re often bypassed by most get-out-the-vote efforts .
“ New voters … they ’ re just invisible.
” This is despite the fact that in many battleground states , like Pennsylvania , where Carter is based , as well as Michigan , Florida and Nevada @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are eligible to vote now is larger than the margin of victory in the 2016 elections , according to the June 2020 report from the NPNA .
“ Newly naturalized citizens could help to sway the outcome of national elections , ” says Diego Iñiguez-López , the NPNA ’ s policy and campaigns manager .
But more importantly , he adds , “ what ’ s at stake is the political empowerment of newly naturalized citizens … and for the democratic ideals of this country to be fully realized and exercised.
” Community @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the gap — and this year , just as the need for their services ramp up , COVID-19 has made them more difficult to deliver .
Hmong Innovating Politics ( HIP ) , in California , and the nonprofit Bonding Against Adversity in Houston , which works mostly with Latin American immigrants , are doing their best to adapt by moving their activities online .
HIP has switched to a text-messaging platform , which uses current friends-and-family circles to encourage contacts to register to vote .
Bonding Against Adversity , meanwhile , has @ @ @ @ @ @ @ real-time immigration application help , and plans to restart an online version of their 14-session “ citizenship college ” civic-education program and application workshops in August .
Meanwhile , LWV-Houston members have paid for a QR code that brings up voter-registration information , which it is sharing on signs and , for a while , in person at public libraries , community and faith-based organizations , protests and even a taco chain restaurant .
But still , many organizations are afraid that some of the most vulnerable communities , who already feel left @ @ @ @ @ @ @ fall through the gaps .
“ A lot of the communities that we work with have elementary education , are not computer-savvy , and don ’ t speak good English , ” says Mariana Sanchez , a co-founder of Bonding Against Adversity .
That ’ s why she says in-person registration and education is essential .
But the pandemic has put these in-person services on pause , and as a result , the applicants who need the most support are unable to access it .
COVID-19 shows little evidence of slowing down .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ Texas that had avoided the early wave of infections were warning that hospital beds were close to full , and in-person voter-registration activities , which the League of Women Voters had just restarted alongside USCIS ’ s reopenings , were put on indefinite pause .
In the meantime , smaller oath ceremonies continue , with USCIS spokespeople emphasizing their adherence during the ceremonies to public-health guidelines , including masks and social distancing .
But it is not clear if USCIS has any contingency plans in place for alternatives to in-person activities .
The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ local level is also a possibility , which would affect which activities USCIS could continue .
Guam ’ s USCIS office , for example , was shut down for a week as the territory ’ s COVID-19 case count led the governor to issue orders to shelter in place .
Hetlage , the USCIS representative , did not respond to a specific question on contingency plans but reiterated that virtual oath ceremonies weren ’ t possible .
This has many immigration advocates perplexed .
“ Almost every business , school district , university @ @ @ @ @ @ @ made adjustments to keep their organizations — and the country — moving , ” says Eric Cohen , the executive director of the Immigrant Legal Resource Center , an advocacy group .
“ Why should USCIS be any different ?
” The question represents an ongoing frustration : Yes , there is an unprecedented public-health crisis , but there is also a human-made immigration crisis stemming from the administration ’ s policies and USCIS ’ s decision-making during the pandemic .
“ It ’ s hard to look at the actions the administration @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , and not think that there was some intent there , especially when you ’ re talking about an administration that is historic in its stance on legal immigration.
” says Pierce , of MPI , on whether the immigration agency ’ s decision-making could be political .
Beyond the 63 actions taken during the pandemic , Pierce ’ s report identified over 400 executive actions by the Trump administration taken in the past four years that have shifted the immigration system toward removing suspected undocumented immigrants , and away from processing applications @ @ @ @ @ @ @ stands in stark contrast with the second night of the Republican National Convention , when Trump naturalized five new citizens at the White House in a prerecorded video .
The president welcomed them to “ a family comprised of every race , color , religion and creed united by the bonds of love , ” as he said in his concluding remarks .
“ We are one people sharing one home , saluting one great American flag.
” USCIS representatives did not respond to a request for comment on whether the five were @ @ @ @ @ @ @ law .
Since early summer , USCIS has warned that if it does not receive $ 1.2 billion in emergency funding , the agency would furlough 13,000 workers – 70 percent of its workforce — and slow or pause many immigration processes .
On August 25 , after months of back-and-forth , Congress and USCIS reached an agreement that would avoid the furlough .
That agreement would not , however , avoid further delays in processing , as Joseph Edlow , deputy director for policy at USCIS , told The Washington Post : @ @ @ @ @ @ @ severe operational cost that will increase backlogs and wait times across the board , with no guarantee we can avoid future furloughs.
” In an effort to increase its financial sustainability , USCIS will increase fees by an average of 20 percent across the board , and more than 80 percent for naturalization applications .
For groups like Bonding Against Adversity and Hmong Innovating Politics , which were already under-resourced before the pandemic , these changes will only add to their immediate workload .
Sanchez says she ’ s already received more inquiries @ @ @ @ @ @ @ citizenship before application fees for naturalization increase .
“ The immigration laws are so difficult , ” says Sanchez , that “ the only way , for some of the people we serve to help their families is through citizenship…and voting.
” But USCIS is making the process more difficult .
That ’ s why the NPNA sees naturalization delays as an issue of voting rights .
“ It ’ s part of the larger anti-immigrant agenda that the Trump administration has pursued over the last few years , ” says Iñiguez-López .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ them afraid , keep them intimidated , and keep them away from knowing and asserting their votes , including their right to vote.
” In other words , while these would-be citizens are trying to follow the rules of the U.S. immigration system to naturalize and effect change through the established democratic processes , the system has itself become the barrier .
This story received support from the Fund for Investigative Journalism .
Rowan Copley contributed research .

New U.S. Citizens Were One Of The Fastest-Growing Voting Blocs. But Not This Year.
On a Wednesday morning in late February, Annie Johnson Benifield was already through the doors of the M.O. Campbell Education Center, in Houston by 5:30 a.m.
The occasion was a once-a-month naturalization ceremony, where anywhere between 1,700 to 2,600 legal permanent residents swear a 140-word oath in order to become U.S. citizens. The ceremony wouldn’t begin until later in the morning, but Benifield and the 40 or so volunteers from the League of Women Voters (LWV) had arrived early to set up.
The League is the official registration partner for many naturalization ceremonies across the country. And before the pandemic, these events happened frequently, taking place once, or sometimes twice, each month at U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) field offices as well as some federal courthouses. The League had predicted that, in 2020, it would interact with up to 200,000 new citizens and their family members in 1,000 events across the country.
The Houston chapter specifically had an 85 to 90 percent success rate in new voter registrations, for an annual average of 30,000 new voters, according to Benifield. But this year, with the widespread interest in the presidential elections, she thought registrations might crack 40,000.
“I was getting excited and feeling giddy about it,” she told FiveThirtyEight, “but COVID-19 had a different plan.”
Newly naturalized citizens are one of the fastest-growing voting groups in the United States. In February, the Pew Research Center published a report that found that 23.2 million naturalized citizens would be eligible to vote in November’s presidential elections, making up a record 10 percent of the total electorate. And according to a February analysis by the National Partnership for New Americans (NPNA), a coalition of immigrant advocacy organizations, 860,000 new Americans were expected to have naturalized by November before the pandemic brought things to a halt.
But not all eligible voters actually vote, and naturalized Americans have historically trailed native-born Americans at the polls. In 2016, for example, 54 percent of naturalized citizens voted in the general election compared with 62 percent of native-born citizens. According to studies, one explanation is an element that could be missing again this year: voter registration. It’s not a lack of desire to participate, the study finds, but rather it’s an unfamiliarity with how or where to register, registration deadlines, and language issues. Once these barriers are overcome and new Americans are registered, they tend to vote at the same rates as native-born members of their demographic group.
Take someone like Raz Ahmadi, a new U.S. citizen from Afghanistan. For the past five years, he has worked as an organizer registering voters and advocating for progressive environmental policies in Virginia. And this year, after completing the naturalization process, which had been interrupted by COVID-19, in mid-July, Ahmadi will finally be able to cast his own ballot.
Though he has already been involved in politics, Ahmadi says that being able to actually participate is a whole new feeling for him. Being “empowered to vote, mentally, it gives you a lot of power,” he says. “It just personalizes a lot of things. Now you’re more involved in the community.”
But even before COVID-19, the wait time for citizenship applications had hit new highs under the Trump administration. According to USCIS numbers, the naturalization process averaged 8.8 months in 2020, compared with 5.6 months in 2016 and a peak of 10.3 months in 2018, though in some cases, it could take up to three years.
COVID-19 exacerbated this delay. On March 18, USCIS temporarily shut down all public-facing activities, including interviews for visas, asylum and naturalization as well as oath ceremonies. The agency did not make plans for virtual alternatives, bringing much of U.S. immigration to a halt.
For each day that USCIS remained closed, 2,100 potential new voters would be disenfranchised, according to a frequently cited report by Boundless, an immigration-services company co-founded by an Obama administration official.
USCIS field offices reopened on June 4 and prioritized in-person oath-swearing ceremonies. Some field offices held drive-through ceremonies, while others held more frequent, but smaller, indoor or outdoor ceremonies. By the end of July, the agency says that it has cleared the backlog of 110,000 oath ceremonies delayed by its closures, as well as an additional 7,905 oath ceremonies not scheduled before the pandemic.
Still, these 7,905 new naturalizations in July represent a twelve-fold decrease than the typical 95,850 naturalizations completed each month. So even though in-person oath ceremonies are continuing, “the fact of the matter was that there was already a backlog of people waiting to be naturalized,” says Jeanette Senecal, who oversees voter-engagement programs at the League of Women Voters, “so unless USCIS is both increasing the number of people who are getting naturalized at each one and offering more ceremonies, there’s really no way they can make that up.”
From the outset of USCIS’s closure, a diverse group of bipartisan policymakers, immigration lawyers, community advocates, and third-party voter-registration organizations like the League of Women Voters have called on USCIS to follow in the footsteps of other federal government agencies in moving activities online. In June, the USCIS Ombudsman’s Office, a small, independent office in the Department of Homeland Security that appeals specific immigration cases and suggests improvements for USCIS, weighed in, calling remote oath ceremonies, held via video teleconferencing, “a legally permissible and operationally feasible solution” for the agency in the short term and a potential long-term solution to “increase efficiencies” in its annual report to Congress.
But still, the USCIS rejected a virtual option. Spokespeople told FiveThirtyEight repeatedly, both before and after the Ombudsman’s report, that “the statutory language mandated by Congress contains certain requirements that are logistically difficult for USCIS to administer naturalization oaths virtually or telephonically.”
USCIS says that they’ve taken steps to clear the backlog in oath ceremonies, but these ceremonies are not the only steps in the naturalization process that are delayed.
Sarah Pierce, a policy analyst with the Migration Policy Institute, calls USCIS’s emphasis on clearing the backlog in oath ceremonies “really misleading” because it wasn’t just oath ceremonies that were paused during this time. “It was also interviews, which meant that naturalization applications weren’t being processed,” said Pierce. She added that unless USCIS was also trying to expedite processing of naturalization applications, there was “no way” the agency was going to be able to naturalize the same number of people by the election.
By the end of March, there were more than 700,000 naturalization applications waiting to be processed.
Dan Hetlage, a USCIS spokesperson, told FiveThirtyEight that the agency has also “prioritized rescheduling interviews for naturalization and adjustment of status that were postponed,” but as of early August, immigration lawyers I spoke with said that their clients had not been contacted to schedule naturalization interviews.
There are currently 315,000 naturalization applicants awaiting their interviews, which on average occur two months before an oath ceremony, according to a Boundless analysis. In two months it will be October, which is the deadline for voter registration in many states. That means an unknown but likely significant number of those 315,000 applicants will not naturalize soon enough to register by October and vote in November.
It’s not just USCIS that has changed as a result of the pandemic. A recent report from the Migration Policy Institute cataloged 63 executive actions undertaken by the Trump administration since March that have further restricted immigration.
Pierce, who co-authored the report, says that these changes represented some of the Trump administration’s “boldest actions on immigration to date” that, in some cases, they had long been pushing but had been unable to achieve. This includes a travel ban on 31 countries, the end of asylum at the southern border, and the suspension of immigration for many family- and employment-based categories as well as four temporary-worker programs.
“During an unprecedented pandemic, which includes both public health and economic crises, you would expect immigration to take a backseat,” says Pierce, “but rather, the opposite has been true.”
When USCIS offices reopened on June 4, organizations like the League of Women Voters scrambled to help with voter-registration efforts. Benifield, from LWV-Houston, recalls reaching out multiple times to the local field office. “We were prepared to go and set up in the parking lot … if they allowed us,” she said.
In the end, her persistence paid off. “The branch chief … agreed that we could actually bring cards” for officials administering the naturalization ceremony to give out. The League cannot be on-site to register applicants directly because of the continued threat the pandemic poses, but they can drop off folders containing voter-registration packets to the local field office to be distributed at the socially distant ceremonies. USCIS is legally mandated to provide, at a minimum, voter-registration forms at each naturalization ceremony.
Benifiled said she was glad they could distribute materials, but she remained unsure how effective this form of voter registration would be. “Clearly, it will not be 30,000 like … last year.”
This is affecting the League’s activities across the country. “Spring and summer are usually really busy seasons for voter registration, but especially in presidential years, we usually see massive increases… [in] naturalization ceremonies,” says Senecal, from the League’s national office.
Volunteers understand the public health prerogatives that prevent them from conducting registrations in person, especially since many are older and at higher risk for COVID-19, but many, like Benifield, are concerned about the effect on registration numbers and broader civic engagement.
“The opportunity cost is not just registration,” adds Senecal, “it’s also voter education.”
At a basic level, in-person voter registration provides necessary information in native languages, says Nancy Xiong, the communications director for Hmong Innovating Politics, a California-based nonprofit that aims to increase civic participation among Southeast Asian Americans.
Native language materials are essential, since many new citizens, especially in already marginalized communities, have challenges with English. Even when they are provided with translated voting materials, Xiong adds, these materials “may not always be helpful because county/state offices do a word-to-word translation, without much context.”
This can create the perception that these communities are uninterested in politics, leading to “big campaigns never or rarely contact[ing] the Southeast Asian community,” Xiong says, even though 92 percent of the 310,000 Hmong Americans are citizens, one of the highest rates among Asian Americans, and 45 percent are eligible to vote. And this perpetuates a cycle of disenfranchisement, at the very moment when immigrant voters might be especially incentivized to vote, if previous elections in which immigration was a hot topic are any indication. In 2008, presidential candidate Mitt Romney’s suggestion that immigrants should “self-deport” and hardline views on DACA, for example, have been linked to a jump in voter registrations between 2008 to 2012.
Sundrop Carter, the executive director of the Pennsylvania Immigration and Citizenship Coalition (PICC), which partners with the Philadelphia USCIS field office as its official third-party registration organization for naturalization ceremonies, told me part of the problem is that: “[B]y definition new Americans have no voter history.” As a result, she said, they’re often bypassed by most get-out-the-vote efforts. “New voters … they’re just invisible.”
This is despite the fact that in many battleground states, like Pennsylvania, where Carter is based, as well as Michigan, Florida and Nevada, the number of new Americans who are eligible to vote now is larger than the margin of victory in the 2016 elections, according to the June 2020 report from the NPNA. “Newly naturalized citizens could help to sway the outcome of national elections,” says Diego Iñiguez-López, the NPNA’s policy and campaigns manager. But more importantly, he adds, “what’s at stake is the political empowerment of newly naturalized citizens … and for the democratic ideals of this country to be fully realized and exercised.”
Community organizations have always tried to fill in the gap — and this year, just as the need for their services ramp up, COVID-19 has made them more difficult to deliver.
Hmong Innovating Politics (HIP), in California, and the nonprofit Bonding Against Adversity in Houston, which works mostly with Latin American immigrants, are doing their best to adapt by moving their activities online. HIP has switched to a text-messaging platform, which uses current friends-and-family circles to encourage contacts to register to vote. Bonding Against Adversity, meanwhile, has expanded another SMS-based communications platform to provide real-time immigration application help, and plans to restart an online version of their 14-session “citizenship college” civic-education program and application workshops in August.
Meanwhile, LWV-Houston members have paid for a QR code that brings up voter-registration information, which it is sharing on signs and, for a while, in person at public libraries, community and faith-based organizations, protests and even a taco chain restaurant.
But still, many organizations are afraid that some of the most vulnerable communities, who already feel left out of the political process, will fall through the gaps. “A lot of the communities that we work with have elementary education, are not computer-savvy, and don’t speak good English,” says Mariana Sanchez, a co-founder of Bonding Against Adversity. That’s why she says in-person registration and education is essential.
But the pandemic has put these in-person services on pause, and as a result, the applicants who need the most support are unable to access it.
COVID-19 shows little evidence of slowing down. By June, hospitals in states like Texas that had avoided the early wave of infections were warning that hospital beds were close to full, and in-person voter-registration activities, which the League of Women Voters had just restarted alongside USCIS’s reopenings, were put on indefinite pause.
In the meantime, smaller oath ceremonies continue, with USCIS spokespeople emphasizing their adherence during the ceremonies to public-health guidelines, including masks and social distancing. But it is not clear if USCIS has any contingency plans in place for alternatives to in-person activities.
The potential of more stay-at-home orders at a local level is also a possibility, which would affect which activities USCIS could continue. Guam’s USCIS office, for example, was shut down for a week as the territory’s COVID-19 case count led the governor to issue orders to shelter in place. Hetlage, the USCIS representative, did not respond to a specific question on contingency plans but reiterated that virtual oath ceremonies weren’t possible.
This has many immigration advocates perplexed. “Almost every business, school district, university and government agency across the country has made adjustments to keep their organizations — and the country — moving,” says Eric Cohen, the executive director of the Immigrant Legal Resource Center, an advocacy group. “Why should USCIS be any different?”
The question represents an ongoing frustration: Yes, there is an unprecedented public-health crisis, but there is also a human-made immigration crisis stemming from the administration’s policies and USCIS’s decision-making during the pandemic.
“It’s hard to look at the actions the administration has taken that result in decreased immigration, and not think that there was some intent there, especially when you’re talking about an administration that is historic in its stance on legal immigration.” says Pierce, of MPI, on whether the immigration agency’s decision-making could be political. Beyond the 63 actions taken during the pandemic, Pierce’s report identified over 400 executive actions by the Trump administration taken in the past four years that have shifted the immigration system toward removing suspected undocumented immigrants, and away from processing applications for naturalization and legal immigration.
It stands in stark contrast with the second night of the Republican National Convention, when Trump naturalized five new citizens at the White House in a prerecorded video. The president welcomed them to “a family comprised of every race, color, religion and creed united by the bonds of love,” as he said in his concluding remarks. “We are one people sharing one home, saluting one great American flag.”
USCIS representatives did not respond to a request for comment on whether the five were given voter-registration forms, as required by law.
Since early summer, USCIS has warned that if it does not receive $1.2 billion in emergency funding, the agency would furlough 13,000 workers – 70 percent of its workforce — and slow or pause many immigration processes. On August 25, after months of back-and-forth, Congress and USCIS reached an agreement that would avoid the furlough.
That agreement would not, however, avoid further delays in processing, as Joseph Edlow, deputy director for policy at USCIS, told The Washington Post: “Averting this furlough comes at a severe operational cost that will increase backlogs and wait times across the board, with no guarantee we can avoid future furloughs.”
In an effort to increase its financial sustainability, USCIS will increase fees by an average of 20 percent across the board, and more than 80 percent for naturalization applications. For groups like Bonding Against Adversity and Hmong Innovating Politics, which were already under-resourced before the pandemic, these changes will only add to their immediate workload.
Sanchez says she’s already received more inquiries from people who want to apply for citizenship before application fees for naturalization increase. “The immigration laws are so difficult,” says Sanchez, that “the only way, for some of the people we serve to help their families is through citizenship…and voting.”
But USCIS is making the process more difficult. That’s why the NPNA sees naturalization delays as an issue of voting rights.
“It’s part of the larger anti-immigrant agenda that the Trump administration has pursued over the last few years,” says Iñiguez-López. “Keep immigrants feeling unwelcome, keep them afraid, keep them intimidated, and keep them away from knowing and asserting their rights, including their right to vote.”
In other words, while these would-be citizens are trying to follow the rules of the U.S. immigration system to naturalize and effect change through the established democratic processes, the system has itself become the barrier.
This story received support from the Fund for Investigative Journalism. Rowan Copley contributed research.
CORRECTION (September 1, 2020, 9:40 a.m.): An earlier version of this article misquoted Diego Iñiguez-López of the NPNA as saying the larger anti-immigrant issue was meant to keep immigrants “from knowing and asserting their votes, including their right to vote.” In fact, he said it’s meant to keep them “from knowing and asserting their rights, including their right to vote.”


fivethirthyeight--2020-08-31--There’s Not Enough Evidence Yet To Know Whether Unrest In Kenosha  And Portland Will Affect The Elec

In this week ’ s FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast , the crew asks whether there is evidence that civil unrest will @ @ @ @ @ chances in the 2020 election .
They also preview the Democratic Senate primary race in @ @ @ @ @ and Rep. Joe Kennedy III .

There’s Not Enough Evidence Yet To Know Whether Unrest In Kenosha And Portland Will Affect The Election
In this week’s FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the crew asks whether there is evidence that civil unrest will harm Joe Biden’s chances in the 2020 election. They also preview the Democratic Senate primary race in Massachusetts between Sen. Ed Markey and Rep. Joe Kennedy III.


fivethirthyeight--2020-08-31--Politics Podcast: We Don’t Know Yet Whether Unrest In Kenosha And Portland Will Help Trump

There ’ s been media speculation over the past week that unrest in places like Kenosha , Wisconsin , and @ @ @ @ @ reshape the presidential race and hurt Democratic nominee Joe Biden .
The FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast @ @ @ @ @ not yet evidence to back up these assertions .
They also preview Tuesday ’ s @ @ @ @ @ Massachusetts between incumbent Sen. Ed Markey and Rep. Joe Kennedy III .
You can listen @ @ @ @ @ the “ play ” button in the audio player above or by downloading it in @ @ @ @ @ or your favorite podcast platform .
If you are new to podcasts , learn how @ @ @ @ @ Politics podcast is recorded Mondays and Thursdays .
Help new listeners discover the show by @ @ @ @ @ review on iTunes .
Have a comment , question or suggestion for “ good polling @ @ @ @ @ Get in touch by email , on Twitter or in the comments .

Politics Podcast: We Don’t Know Yet Whether Unrest In Kenosha And Portland Will Help Trump
There’s been media speculation over the past week that unrest in places like Kenosha, Wisconsin, and Portland, Oregon, could reshape the presidential race and hurt Democratic nominee Joe Biden. The FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast crew discusses why there is not yet evidence to back up these assertions. They also preview Tuesday’s Democratic Senate primary race in Massachusetts between incumbent Sen. Ed Markey and Rep. Joe Kennedy III.
You can listen to the episode by clicking the “play” button in the audio player above or by downloading it in iTunes, the ESPN App or your favorite podcast platform. If you are new to podcasts, learn how to listen.
The FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast is recorded Mondays and Thursdays. Help new listeners discover the show by leaving us a rating and review on iTunes. Have a comment, question or suggestion for “good polling vs. bad polling”? Get in touch by email, on Twitter or in the comments.


fivethirthyeight--2020-08-31--Mike Trout Finally Got An MVP-Level Teammate. So Why Aren’t The Angels Winning?

For years , the narrative around the Los Angeles Angels has been this : Mike Trout good , teammates bad .
Trout has consistently been the best player in baseball according to wins above replacement — a metric that has always been Trout ’ s steadfast ally in MVP debates and all-time rankings — but he ’ s never had the supporting cast to help him win a postseason game .
So when the Angels signed All-Star third baseman Anthony Rendon last December , potentially giving Trout his most productive teammate ever , the Angels had reason for optimism in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Maddon .
Rendon has been even better than advertised , with both a higher adjusted on-base plus slugging ( OPS+ ) and more WAR per game than in 2019 , so we might expect L.A. ’ s fortunes to be positively soaring at midseason .
But instead , the Angels are 11 games under .500 and mired in last place .
How is it possible that Trout finally got some real help , in the form of an MVP-level teammate , and his club is somehow worse than ever ?
Trout himself is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ dipped to 163 , the lowest mark he ’ s had in a season since debuting in 2011 .
He ’ s hitting .277 — nearly 30 points below his career average — with a significantly worse strikeout-to-walk ratio ( 2.06 ) than a year ago ( 1.09 ) .
The trademark “ little things ” that famously added up to a big advantage in Trout ’ s previous WAR wars have now become liabilities ; Trout has been just slightly better than an average base-runner ( 0.8 runs above average ) and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ an average center fielder , with negative total defensive value after adjusting for position .
As underwhelming as this all sounds , Trout is hardly having a poor season .
He is tied for third in MLB with 12 home runs and has 1.04 WAR in 35 team contests — meaning he ’ s playing at a 4.8-WAR pace per 162 games .
That ’ s an All-Star campaign by full-season standards .
However , it ’ s also a far cry from Trout ’ s usual output .
In fact , it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 8.2 WAR pace per 162 , that has Trout ’ s usual statistical production — a radical reversal of the Angels ’ normal dynamic : Perhaps it shouldn ’ t be too surprising that Trout has bigger things on his mind than playing at his usual GOAT level .
Before the season , he had expressed doubts about whether he would even play as MLB attempted to start its season in a pandemic .
“ Honestly , I still don ’ t feel comfortable , ” Trout said in early July , citing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ was due to have their first child during the season .
“ We ’ re risking our families , risking our lives to go out here and play for everyone .
… I want to play .
It ’ s just a tough situation .
I ’ ve just got to play it by ear.
” Trout did eventually decide to play , but he also left the Angels briefly around July 30 , when his son was born .
He still has come to bat 141 times , though , which works @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 162 team games .
( For comparison , Trout had 600 PA in last year ’ s American League MVP season . )
So the downturn in WAR isn ’ t simply a function of playing less — Trout just hasn ’ t been anywhere near as dominant as we ’ re accustomed to seeing .
( After all , this is a player who usually tracks to have the most career WAR ever for a player his age . )
Trout is far from the only disappointing Angel this season .
Two-way @ @ @ @ @ @ @ before suffering another arm injury in his second start ; as a hitter , his OPS is 22 percent worse than average as a designated hitter , helping yield just -0.3 WAR in total this season .
Andrelton Simmons has barely played because of an ankle injury , while left fielder Justin Upton ( who ’ s hitting .130 ) is ice-cold to start the year .
At 40 years old , Albert Pujols ( 0.0 WAR ) remains in the mix at first base — and remains L.A. ’ s second-highest paid @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Adell is hitting .181 , learning the major league game on the fly .
Last year ’ s horrid starting pitching ( 30th in WAR in 2019 ) is barely better ( 22nd ) in 2020 , and the bullpen ( 4.49 ERA ) has been average at best .
Just about the only bright spots for the Angels so far have been Rendon ’ s MVP numbers , the ongoing development of versatile infielder David Fletcher and a solid ace-level performance from starter Dylan Bundy .
Everything else has been underwhelming , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Angeles arguably MLB ’ s most disappointing team in 2020 — and that ’ s really saying something , given the competition from a dreadful Boston Red Sox team and a listless title defense ( so far ) from the Washington Nationals .
Even if Trout were playing at his established level of performance , that wouldn ’ t be nearly enough to fix the Angels ’ season by itself .
But the irony is still undeniable : After years of excellence undermined by inferior teammates , Trout has been the fourth-best player @ @ @ @ @ @ @ far .
And with just a 2 percent chance to make the playoffs , there isn ’ t much time left to salvage any of the promise L.A. seemed to have going into the season .

For years, the narrative around the Los Angeles Angels has been this: Mike Trout good, teammates bad. Trout has consistently been the best player in baseball according to wins above replacement — a metric that has always been Trout’s steadfast ally in MVP debates and all-time rankings — but he’s never had the supporting cast to help him win a postseason game. So when the Angels signed All-Star third baseman Anthony Rendon last December, potentially giving Trout his most productive teammate ever, the Angels had reason for optimism in their first season under new manager Joe Maddon.
Rendon has been even better than advertised, with both a higher adjusted on-base plus slugging (OPS+) and more WAR per game than in 2019, so we might expect L.A.’s fortunes to be positively soaring at midseason. But instead, the Angels are 11 games under .500 and mired in last place. How is it possible that Trout finally got some real help, in the form of an MVP-level teammate, and his club is somehow worse than ever?
Trout himself is not without blame. His OPS+ has dipped to 163, the lowest mark he’s had in a season since debuting in 2011. He’s hitting .277 — nearly 30 points below his career average — with a significantly worse strikeout-to-walk ratio (2.06) than a year ago (1.09). The trademark “little things” that famously added up to a big advantage in Trout’s previous WAR wars have now become liabilities; Trout has been just slightly better than an average base-runner (0.8 runs above average) and has been worth 4.6 fewer runs than an average center fielder, with negative total defensive value after adjusting for position.
As underwhelming as this all sounds, Trout is hardly having a poor season. He is tied for third in MLB with 12 home runs and has 1.04 WAR in 35 team contests — meaning he’s playing at a 4.8-WAR pace per 162 games. That’s an All-Star campaign by full-season standards. However, it’s also a far cry from Trout’s usual output. In fact, it’s Rendon, playing at an 8.2 WAR pace per 162, that has Trout’s usual statistical production — a radical reversal of the Angels’ normal dynamic:
Perhaps it shouldn’t be too surprising that Trout has bigger things on his mind than playing at his usual GOAT level. Before the season, he had expressed doubts about whether he would even play as MLB attempted to start its season in a pandemic. “Honestly, I still don’t feel comfortable,” Trout said in early July, citing concerns about his pregnant wife, who was due to have their first child during the season. “We’re risking our families, risking our lives to go out here and play for everyone. … I want to play. It’s just a tough situation. I’ve just got to play it by ear.”
Trout did eventually decide to play, but he also left the Angels briefly around July 30, when his son was born. He still has come to bat 141 times, though, which works out to about 653 plate appearances per 162 team games. (For comparison, Trout had 600 PA in last year’s American League MVP season.) So the downturn in WAR isn’t simply a function of playing less — Trout just hasn’t been anywhere near as dominant as we’re accustomed to seeing. (After all, this is a player who usually tracks to have the most career WAR ever for a player his age.)
Trout is far from the only disappointing Angel this season. Two-way sensation Shohei Ohtani struggled as a pitcher before suffering another arm injury in his second start; as a hitter, his OPS is 22 percent worse than average as a designated hitter, helping yield just -0.3 WAR in total this season. Andrelton Simmons has barely played because of an ankle injury, while left fielder Justin Upton (who’s hitting .130) is ice-cold to start the year. At 40 years old, Albert Pujols (0.0 WAR) remains in the mix at first base — and remains L.A.’s second-highest paid player. Touted rookie right fielder Jo Adell is hitting .181, learning the major league game on the fly. Last year’s horrid starting pitching (30th in WAR in 2019) is barely better (22nd) in 2020, and the bullpen (4.49 ERA) has been average at best.
Just about the only bright spots for the Angels so far have been Rendon’s MVP numbers, the ongoing development of versatile infielder David Fletcher and a solid ace-level performance from starter Dylan Bundy.
Everything else has been underwhelming, which has added up to make Los Angeles arguably MLB’s most disappointing team in 2020 — and that’s really saying something, given the competition from a dreadful Boston Red Sox team and a listless title defense (so far) from the Washington Nationals. Even if Trout were playing at his established level of performance, that wouldn’t be nearly enough to fix the Angels’ season by itself. But the irony is still undeniable: After years of excellence undermined by inferior teammates, Trout has been the fourth-best player on a legitimately bad Angels team so far. And with just a 2 percent chance to make the playoffs, there isn’t much time left to salvage any of the promise L.A. seemed to have going into the season.
Check out our latest MLB predictions.


fivethirthyeight--2020-08-31--Give Boston’s Kemba Walker A Double Pick And Watch Him Work

Heading into the season ’ s restart , Boston Celtics point guard Kemba Walker was one of the league ’ s more important on-court question marks , as Boston ’ s highest-paid player , assist-rate leader and second scoring option .
Early on , lingering discomfort in his left knee forced him to play on a minutes restriction , and before the bubble , he had passed the 20-point mark only two times since Feb. 1 .
Even given the production of young stars Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown , it didn ’ t seem possible for Boston to win @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s offensive firepower .
But despite some inconsistent outside shooting in Boston ’ s first-round playoff series against the Sixers , Walker managed to average 24.3 points per game and rediscover his All-Star footing .
In Sunday ’ s commanding win against the Toronto Raptors , he finished with 18 points and 10 assists .
But without Gordon Hayward , who badly sprained his ankle in the first round , the Celtics will need Walker to consistently carry an even greater burden throughout Round 2 , against one of the stingiest and most @ @ @ @ @ @ @ coach Brad Stevens , the answer should be found by turning him loose in a simple sequence that has brought opponents to their knees all season .
Walker is a pick-and-roll maestro .
He can score in so many ways : stop on a dime , pull up for three , skip his way into an elbow jumper , or slide downhill , squirm his shoulders by a much larger defender and finish at the cup .
However , to zoom in even more , whenever he has two screens to work with @ @ @ @ @ @ @ level .
According to Second Spectrum , the only player who had more double picks set for him in the regular season was Atlanta Hawks point guard Trae Young .
Walker averaged 8.75 per game , and in total he ran more than 14 entire teams .
For the Charlotte Hornets , Walker also found himself using double picks quite a bit , but in Boston , his volume has skyrocketed .
Last season , he averaged 8.76 double screens per 100 possessions .
This year , it was 13.66 , placing Walker @ @ @ @ @ @ @ highest out of the 61 players who used a double screen at least 100 times ) .
What separates him from the pack is his wild efficiency .
Walker averaged 1.15 points per chance ( 83rd percentile ) while squeezing out a lucrative 127.5 points per 100 possessions ( 85th percentile ) for the Celtics .
In other words , when Boston ’ s offense looks like an outhouse , these plays turn it into a villa ; there are few recourses more logical than giving Walker the ball and having two fellow @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of the floor .
The play provides countless options for him to choose from , as a pair of skilled teammates position themselves to pop or roll .
Walker is nimble , perceptive and skilled enough to punish defenses in too many ways for them to wrap their arms around .
These plays either hit the other team with a punchy burst of shotmaking or unfold slowly until a mistake or mismatch can be pounced upon .
The hope behind setting two screens at the same time is that it will maximize confusion @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of chaos that benefits the offense .
When someone as fast as Walker is the initiator , defenders are never not on their heels .
Trapping him is futile , given that few big men can contain Walker in space , and dropping too low lets him feast in areas where he ’ s very comfortable .
Watch how smooth Boston ’ s offense runs after Brown screens Josh Richardson off Walker and forces Tobias Harris to switch in the play below .
Less than a second later , Enes Kanter pancakes Harris @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Embiid , who has zero interest in leaving the paint .
With Brown occupying Richardson ’ s attention and Harris not wanting to leave Kanter all alone , Philly has nobody near Walker when he rises at the elbow .
Don ’ t switch , and the result is a cleaner version of the same thing : Misdirections and Easter eggs develop out of this basic formation , too .
Notice below how Walker starts out on the left before he slaloms right at midcourt .
The Grizzlies hedge and recover in response @ @ @ @ @ @ @ but that was just a decoy .
The real action occurs when Daniel Theis flies over to set a flair screen for Brown on the weak side .
And in transition , when the Celtics are able to give Walker a double drag screen , the threat of his outside shot makes big men feel like they ’ re in no man ’ s land until he blows past them for a layup .
Even though Walker ’ s double-pick opportunities have dropped slightly on a per-100-possession basis since the season came back @ @ @ @ @ @ @ points in the bubble in double-pick situations .
And according to Second Spectrum , his points per chance in those spots is up in the 89th percentile , too .
Going forward , in Hayward-free lineups , the Celtics may want to give Walker as many chances as he can physically handle .
He has had success running them against his second-round opponent .
Toronto , which allowed the fewest points per possession when facing a double pick this season .
The Celtics scored 1.4 points per possession when they provided Walker with @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the regular season ; no player who had at least 10 openings here has been more efficient .
It ’ s against such athletic and versatile teams that Walker ’ s shifty handle comes in handy ; he might be the best player in the NBA at using a live dribble to lead his man into a screen .
As one of his former coaches , Steve Hetzel , told me a few years ago : “ Good pick-and-roll defense is when the defender gets into the ball-handler to try and negate separation @ @ @ @ @ @ @ incredibly difficult when he combines such a spontaneous live dribble with two screens and one of the most devastating pull-up jumpers in the league .
( According to NBA.com , 76 players averaged at least four pull-up field-goal attempts this season , and Walker had a higher effective field-goal percentage than all but four of them . )
Corralling Walker in space is a lot like poking a bumblebee with a toothpick .
Here are a couple of plays that show why .
The first starts with Marcus Smart forcing Kyle Lowry to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ into a middle pick and roll with Rob Williams .
If you ’ re brave enough , put yourself in Terence Davis ’ s shoes .
A split second after you switched onto Walker , you have to prevent him from using Williams ’ s screen .
For a moment , things appear to be going well … and then Walker reaches into his bag and chars your ankles as Williams flips the screen and creates a wide open free-throw-line jumper .
Here ’ s him doing similar work against Pascal Siakam : @ @ @ @ @ @ @ it this year , but the beauty of putting Walker in a double pick with this specific roster is that it lets Boston directly involve all three of its best players in a way that puts each of them at an advantage on their man .
Even if it ’ s just to get Tatum or Brown isolated against a smaller defender , or turn them into playmakers staring at a four-on-three edge , this formation creates problems for anyone trying to slow it down .
There ’ s a popular , perfectly @ @ @ @ @ @ @ essentially says the height of their playoff ceiling will be set by Tatum and Brown .
In many ways , this is true .
Neither is older than 23 , but both already have a flashing green light to be aggressive with the ball and are stone solid guardrails for one of the NBA ’ s sturdiest defenses .
Compared to Walker , they ’ re no longer variables but fixed integers that make Boston the title contender it is .
And instead of wondering how far Tatum and Brown will take them @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s function .
The Celtics have myriad weapons at their disposal , even with Hayward out for the next few weeks .
But when they want to break the backs of their opponents , few options are better than putting the ball in Walker ’ s hands , giving him two high screens , then sitting back to enjoy the show .

Heading into the season’s restart, Boston Celtics point guard Kemba Walker was one of the league’s more important on-court question marks, as Boston’s highest-paid player, assist-rate leader and second scoring option. Early on, lingering discomfort in his left knee forced him to play on a minutes restriction, and before the bubble, he had passed the 20-point mark only two times since Feb. 1. Even given the production of young stars Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, it didn’t seem possible for Boston to win four straight playoff series without Walker’s offensive firepower.
But despite some inconsistent outside shooting in Boston’s first-round playoff series against the Sixers, Walker managed to average 24.3 points per game and rediscover his All-Star footing. In Sunday’s commanding win against the Toronto Raptors, he finished with 18 points and 10 assists. But without Gordon Hayward, who badly sprained his ankle in the first round, the Celtics will need Walker to consistently carry an even greater burden throughout Round 2, against one of the stingiest and most adaptable defenses in the NBA. For coach Brad Stevens, the answer should be found by turning him loose in a simple sequence that has brought opponents to their knees all season.
Walker is a pick-and-roll maestro. He can score in so many ways: stop on a dime, pull up for three, skip his way into an elbow jumper, or slide downhill, squirm his shoulders by a much larger defender and finish at the cup. However, to zoom in even more, whenever he has two screens to work with, Boston’s attack reaches another level.
According to Second Spectrum, the only player who had more double picks set for him in the regular season was Atlanta Hawks point guard Trae Young. Walker averaged 8.75 per game, and in total he ran more than 14 entire teams.
For the Charlotte Hornets, Walker also found himself using double picks quite a bit, but in Boston, his volume has skyrocketed. Last season, he averaged 8.76 double screens per 100 possessions. This year, it was 13.66, placing Walker in the 93rd percentile (or fourth highest out of the 61 players who used a double screen at least 100 times). What separates him from the pack is his wild efficiency. Walker averaged 1.15 points per chance (83rd percentile) while squeezing out a lucrative 127.5 points per 100 possessions (85th percentile) for the Celtics.
In other words, when Boston’s offense looks like an outhouse, these plays turn it into a villa; there are few recourses more logical than giving Walker the ball and having two fellow Celtics set a screen in the middle of the floor. The play provides countless options for him to choose from, as a pair of skilled teammates position themselves to pop or roll. Walker is nimble, perceptive and skilled enough to punish defenses in too many ways for them to wrap their arms around. These plays either hit the other team with a punchy burst of shotmaking or unfold slowly until a mistake or mismatch can be pounced upon.
The hope behind setting two screens at the same time is that it will maximize confusion and impart the game with a degree of chaos that benefits the offense. When someone as fast as Walker is the initiator, defenders are never not on their heels. Trapping him is futile, given that few big men can contain Walker in space, and dropping too low lets him feast in areas where he’s very comfortable.
Watch how smooth Boston’s offense runs after Brown screens Josh Richardson off Walker and forces Tobias Harris to switch in the play below. Less than a second later, Enes Kanter pancakes Harris, allowing Walker to skate toward Joel Embiid, who has zero interest in leaving the paint. With Brown occupying Richardson’s attention and Harris not wanting to leave Kanter all alone, Philly has nobody near Walker when he rises at the elbow.
Don’t switch, and the result is a cleaner version of the same thing:
Misdirections and Easter eggs develop out of this basic formation, too. Notice below how Walker starts out on the left before he slaloms right at midcourt. The Grizzlies hedge and recover in response to Tatum’s first screen, but that was just a decoy. The real action occurs when Daniel Theis flies over to set a flair screen for Brown on the weak side.
And in transition, when the Celtics are able to give Walker a double drag screen, the threat of his outside shot makes big men feel like they’re in no man’s land until he blows past them for a layup.
Even though Walker’s double-pick opportunities have dropped slightly on a per-100-possession basis since the season came back, he has still scored the third-most points in the bubble in double-pick situations. And according to Second Spectrum, his points per chance in those spots is up in the 89th percentile, too.
Going forward, in Hayward-free lineups, the Celtics may want to give Walker as many chances as he can physically handle. He has had success running them against his second-round opponent. Toronto, which allowed the fewest points per possession when facing a double pick this season. The Celtics scored 1.4 points per possession when they provided Walker with a double pick against the Raptors during the regular season; no player who had at least 10 openings here has been more efficient.
It’s against such athletic and versatile teams that Walker’s shifty handle comes in handy; he might be the best player in the NBA at using a live dribble to lead his man into a screen. As one of his former coaches, Steve Hetzel, told me a few years ago: “Good pick-and-roll defense is when the defender gets into the ball-handler to try and negate separation on the screen.”
That’s incredibly difficult when he combines such a spontaneous live dribble with two screens and one of the most devastating pull-up jumpers in the league. (According to NBA.com, 76 players averaged at least four pull-up field-goal attempts this season, and Walker had a higher effective field-goal percentage than all but four of them.)
Corralling Walker in space is a lot like poking a bumblebee with a toothpick. Here are a couple of plays that show why. The first starts with Marcus Smart forcing Kyle Lowry to switch, then letting Walker immediately go into a middle pick and roll with Rob Williams.
If you’re brave enough, put yourself in Terence Davis’s shoes. A split second after you switched onto Walker, you have to prevent him from using Williams’s screen. For a moment, things appear to be going well … and then Walker reaches into his bag and chars your ankles as Williams flips the screen and creates a wide open free-throw-line jumper.
Here’s him doing similar work against Pascal Siakam:
We’ve yet to really see it this year, but the beauty of putting Walker in a double pick with this specific roster is that it lets Boston directly involve all three of its best players in a way that puts each of them at an advantage on their man. Even if it’s just to get Tatum or Brown isolated against a smaller defender, or turn them into playmakers staring at a four-on-three edge, this formation creates problems for anyone trying to slow it down.
There’s a popular, perfectly rational narrative about the Boston Celtics that essentially says the height of their playoff ceiling will be set by Tatum and Brown. In many ways, this is true. Neither is older than 23, but both already have a flashing green light to be aggressive with the ball and are stone solid guardrails for one of the NBA’s sturdiest defenses.
Compared to Walker, they’re no longer variables but fixed integers that make Boston the title contender it is. And instead of wondering how far Tatum and Brown will take them, the more pressing issue is Walker’s function. The Celtics have myriad weapons at their disposal, even with Hayward out for the next few weeks. But when they want to break the backs of their opponents, few options are better than putting the ball in Walker’s hands, giving him two high screens, then sitting back to enjoy the show.
Check out our latest NBA predictions.