fivethirthyeight--2020-09-28--The Eagles Played To Not Lose … Or Win

The Eagles Played To Not Lose … Or Win

sara.ziegler ( Sara Ziegler , sports editor ) : In Week 3 of the NFL season , we saw many exciting finishes from evenly matched teams — with the best game of the week and maybe even the season ( on paper , anyway ) yet to come .
But let ’ s start with my favorite outcome : the tie !
We got our first tie of the season on Sunday , and it was truly a head-scratcher ( as all the best ties are ) .
Salfino ( Michael Salfino , FiveThirtyEight contributor ) : Philadelphia sacked Cincinnati @ @ @ @ @ @ @ just 3-of-13 third-down attempts to be converted .
sara.ziegler : What was that play call at the end for Philly ?
Playing for … a tie ?
joshua.hermsmeyer ( Josh Hermsmeyer , NFL analyst ) : The Bengals and Eagles combined for six punts in one overtime .
That usually leads to a tie — LOL — but those last two series to end that game were the work of teams that had surrendered .
neil : I mean , you can ’ t give Cincy a chance at their own 46 with @ @ @ @ @ @ @ just crazy talk .
Might as well tie at that point .
Salfino : It was fourth-and-12 .
I guess that was the play from a win probability or loss-avoidance perspective , wasn ’ t it ?
neil : Certainly from a loss-avoidance perspective .
And it ’ s true that they avoided a loss .
joshua.hermsmeyer : They took a penalty to back it up for more room .
So the final play looks better on paper .
sara.ziegler : From Doug Pederson , I found that especially frustrating .
What does @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a tie ?
NOT A DAMN THING .
joshua.hermsmeyer : I ’ ll forever be amused by what coaches say versus what they do when it comes to “ we play to win.
” Salfino : Going into this game , teams were 35-330-6 when they were sacked at least eight times .
So it ’ s a win for Cincy ?
Sort of ?
sara.ziegler : I think a tie there IS a win for the Bengals .
They ’ re a young team still learning .
Philly … is not .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ 2-9-1 , by the way .
neil : I will say the penalties absolutely killed Philly in that overtime .
They had it down to the Bengals ’ 43 on their second-to-last drive , and a couple of penalties ruined that .
Then another penalty basically caused Pederson to say , “ Fuck it , I give up , ” and not kick the FG .
joshua.hermsmeyer : Yeah , Neil , they had four OT penalties .
That ’ s a lot !
It ’ s tied for sixth most in an @ @ @ @ @ @ @ them 13.8 percent win probability alone .
Salfino : I was hoping the Bengals would ice the kicker on a 59-yard field goal attempt before the penalty .
There was just no way Jake Elliott was making that .
neil : Yeah , he is no Harrison Butker .
Salfino : Carson Wentz leads the NFL in picks , BTW ( tied with Kirk Cousins ) .
I like him , but this is ridiculous .
neil : It is funny that this adds to the Bengals as being the tying-est team of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ tied for second .
Call it the curse of Donovan McNabb Not Remembering Ties Exist .
It was a terrible day for Philly sports all around .
The Eagles choose to punt for a tie instead of going for a win , and the Phillies had a chance to make the playoffs if the following happened : … and the Phillies lost 5-0 to Tampa , ending their season .
Salfino : I ’ m sure they ’ re taking it well on sports radio today .
Salfino : Last week , they @ @ @ @ @ @ @ neil : Pederson is lucky there were no fans , or piped-in booing would be the least of his problems .
Salfino : There may have been just pipes .
sara.ziegler : Let ’ s move on to another wild ending .
The Buffalo Bills withstood a big comeback from the Los Angeles Rams and , aided by a questionable call , took their record to 3-0 .
Does Josh Allen look any better to you now , Josh ?
joshua.hermsmeyer : The thing about Josh Allen ’ s performance is that no @ @ @ @ @ @ @ you were proved right on Sunday .
The facemask penalty against him was classic .
sara.ziegler : I did not realize quarterbacks could get facemask penalties , LOL .
joshua.hermsmeyer : He made some truly nice throws — I recall one touch pass along the sideline I thought was especially good — and then threw the controversial interception which was wildly ill-advised .
And I know Bills fans were upset about it , but there was also offensive pass interference on the play .
It was a mess all around .
Salfino : @ @ @ @ @ @ @ but I found the circumstances of their win revolting as a fan .
This is a legendary bad call , though I ’ m sure the NFL will justify it .
sara.ziegler : The reffing on Sunday was certainly something .
I ’ m still mad about the phantom horse-collar tackle call that went against the Saints on a Packer drive .
Salfino : Josh had the line of the night on the Saints .
sara.ziegler : I actually guffawed when I saw that tweet , Josh .
joshua.hermsmeyer : Hill is such @ @ @ @ @ @ @ hope in at this late stage of his career .
Salfino : In four or five years , they may have something .
joshua.hermsmeyer : If you want a switch up from Drew Brees , Let Jameis Cook .
Bring Winston in at the end of games where you need to pass to catch up .
Now that would be fun .
Salfino : Exactly .
I was just going to ask whether the Saints would be better now with Winston .
The anti-Brees .
And Brees got bailed out by Alvin Kamara @ @ @ @ @ @ @ sara.ziegler : How worried should the Saints be about Brees ’ s arm right now ?
Salfino : I love how they ask Brees how he feels .
Name the last old athlete who said , “ Yeah , I ’ ve lost it.
” Probably Mickey Mantle .
( Ironically , modern stats say that Mantle did NOT lose it . )
joshua.hermsmeyer : Sara , he looked better to me as the game went on .
His second TD pass had some zip on it .
But he certainly didn ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ was seeing or in his ability to get the ball where it needed to be , based on all the double clutching he did in the first half .
Salfino : He had an 18-yarder to a wide-open Emmanuel Sanders that barely got there .
It was embarrassing .
sara.ziegler : And yet … the Saints nearly won that game , against a Green Bay team that seems legit .
joshua.hermsmeyer : The Packers won with play-action .
It was the difference in the game , like it usually is .
Salfino : @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ever for a 3-0 team .
I did not think they were going to be a juggernaut offensively , with their apparent desire to run more .
They beat it to death on the telecasts , but Aaron Rodgers is the all-time master of the free play .
joshua.hermsmeyer : Truth .
It was a vivid example of the loss of one aspect of home field advantage .
Salfino : That is such a good point .
That could not have happened without COVID-19 .
Does playing games in empty stadiums make the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ neil : IDK how much effect the home field has had with no fans .
Home teams have won 54.3 percent of games so far , which is below the usual norm … but above what last year had WITH fans ( 52.0 percent ) .
FWIW , baseball ’ s home winning percentage was higher this season without fans than in 2019 as well .
Salfino : But could some QBs like Rodgers , who use that kind of hard-count/free-play gamesmanship , have a bigger edge ?
neil : Certainly if crowd @ @ @ @ @ @ @ factors more into your techniques , you will benefit more .
sara.ziegler : It will be fascinating to look at that over the course of the season .
joshua.hermsmeyer : Yeah , it seems like the advantage from not having a home-field crowd isn ’ t evenly distributed across all teams .
One thing that does seem to be real is the elevated pace of play .
Bettors seem to be making some money on it .
Preston Johnson reports that pace is up in 2020 , 1.3 seconds faster than last year @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Salfino : Maybe teams can communicate more easily and get players on and off the field faster with no noise , as well .
neil : Total points per game are up over 50 so far this season !
Well , let ’ s move to another game that saw a ) more than 50 points scored ; b ) a quarterback controversy ; and c ) yet another full-scale collapse .
joshua.hermsmeyer : The Falcons need to be a feature in every win probability model going forward .
Salfino : They @ @ @ @ @ @ @ two losses in a season when they had 15-plus-point fourth-quarter leads , and they did it IN BACK-TO-BACK WEEKS .
Ouch .
I ’ m shocked the Chargers never did it .
joshua.hermsmeyer : I can ’ t imagine how it must feel to be a Falcons fan , or how it must feel to face the locker room as Dan Quinn .
neil : They ’ re on another level of win probability lost per game in the fourth quarter .
Salfino : And of course the Bears have two wins like @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Nick Foles is the QB now , right ?
sara.ziegler : It doesn ’ t seem possible that Mitch Trubisky could hold on to his starting job now .
But it didn ’ t seem possible that he would win the starting job in the first place !
Salfino : Well , like we said , I get that the Bears got two outs by trying Trubisky first .
But I don ’ t think he can bounce back from this .
Maybe it ’ s possible without fans ?
Either way @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
neil : Matt Nagy lucked out .
He got to give Trubisky a look AND still get out of it 3-0. joshua.hermsmeyer : The most fraudulent 3-0 team ?
I guess the Titans have won three close games as well .
joshua.hermsmeyer : I have my Pythagorean formulas all ready to go , Mike .
sara.ziegler : Hey , I took the Titans in the Hot Takedown Survivor Pool .
neil : The Titans only have a +2.0 point differential per game ; Bears are +4.0 .
Salfino : Hey , at @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
sara.ziegler : That will be great in all the games they lose 41-40. joshua.hermsmeyer : The fruits of the Stefon Diggs trade .
Salfino : Stephen Gostkowski has made three game-winning field goals in a row , and he isn ’ t even good anymore .
Sums up the Titans .
sara.ziegler : Before we wrap up here , I wanted to talk for a second about the Lions-Cardinals game , which did not go at all how I expected it to .
Did Matt Patricia buy himself more time this season @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Murray blew it .
Love the kid , but that was bad .
Three picks is like minus-12 points .
He just gave the game away .
neil : I thought we ’ d get ANOTHER tie in that one .
Detroit and Arizona tied last year , too .
joshua.hermsmeyer : Both teams had similar expected points added per play , so yeah , I think you can hang this on Kyler ’ s turnovers .
The Cardinals actually had a higher success rate and a higher third-down conversion percentage .
Not @ @ @ @ @ @ @ give Patricia .
Salfino : Do you feel ripped off that the Cowboys should be 0-3 ?
joshua.hermsmeyer : Better 1-2 team : Cowboys or Dolphins ?
( It ’ s actually close by EPA per play ! )
Salfino : The NFC East should have just one win , by Washington over another NFC East team .
neil : Speaking of , nice to see the Browns get one over the Football Team .
Second-most generically named team beats the most generically named team Salfino : Well , Cleveland was named after @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Seems it now , though .
neil : Yes , most people now probably think they are just named after the color Brown .
joshua.hermsmeyer : I also have no idea what the Dog Pound has to do with anything .
neil : The Browns are above .500 for the first time since … when again ?
2014 !
Salfino : But don ’ t they seem fraudulent ?
They have no passing game whatsoever .
Baker Mayfield is a game manager .
neil : LOL , yes , they do seem fraudulent @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Salfino : That was another game the QB gave away .
Dwayne Haskins was gaffe-prone , as usual .
joshua.hermsmeyer : The curse of Sashi Brown is that the Browns would finally get good at the same time that Baltimore has Lamar Jackson .
neil : Baltimore has been cursing the Browns for YEARS .
sara.ziegler : If Baker just drops his Progressive commercials , maybe this can be his year .
Salfino : It wasn ’ t me this time !

The Eagles Played To Not Lose … Or Win
sara.ziegler (Sara Ziegler, sports editor): In Week 3 of the NFL season, we saw many exciting finishes from evenly matched teams — with the best game of the week and maybe even the season (on paper, anyway) yet to come. But let’s start with my favorite outcome: the tie! We got our first tie of the season on Sunday, and it was truly a head-scratcher (as all the best ties are).
Salfino (Michael Salfino, FiveThirtyEight contributor): Philadelphia sacked Cincinnati quarterback Joe Burrow eight times and allowed just 3-of-13 third-down attempts to be converted.
neil (Neil Paine, senior sportswriter): And yet …
sara.ziegler: What was that play call at the end for Philly? Playing for … a tie?
neil: Oh, definitely.
joshua.hermsmeyer (Josh Hermsmeyer, NFL analyst): The Bengals and Eagles combined for six punts in one overtime. That usually leads to a tie — LOL — but those last two series to end that game were the work of teams that had surrendered.
neil: I mean, you can’t give Cincy a chance at their own 46 with 19 seconds left. That’s just crazy talk.
Might as well tie at that point.
Salfino: It was fourth-and-12. I guess that was the play from a win probability or loss-avoidance perspective, wasn’t it?
neil: Certainly from a loss-avoidance perspective. And it’s true that they avoided a loss.
joshua.hermsmeyer: They took a penalty to back it up for more room. So the final play looks better on paper.
sara.ziegler: From Doug Pederson, I found that especially frustrating. What does not-a-loss get you if it’s a tie? NOT A DAMN THING.
joshua.hermsmeyer: I’ll forever be amused by what coaches say versus what they do when it comes to “we play to win.”
Salfino: Going into this game, teams were 35-330-6 when they were sacked at least eight times. So it’s a win for Cincy? Sort of?
sara.ziegler: I think a tie there IS a win for the Bengals. They’re a young team still learning. Philly … is not.
Salfino: The NFC East is now 2-9-1, by the way.
The NFC (L)East is now a combined 2-9-1 through 3 weeks, good for a combined win percentage of .208. That is the 2nd-worst win percentage through 3 weeks for a single division since the NFL went to 8 divisions in 2002. (2002 AFC North, .200, 2-8 record). pic.twitter.com/NafPXudTyZ — ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) September 28, 2020
neil: I will say the penalties absolutely killed Philly in that overtime. They had it down to the Bengals’ 43 on their second-to-last drive, and a couple of penalties ruined that. Then another penalty basically caused Pederson to say, “Fuck it, I give up,” and not kick the FG.
joshua.hermsmeyer: Yeah, Neil, they had four OT penalties. That’s a lot! It’s tied for sixth most in an overtime period since 2001.
One cost them 13.8 percent win probability alone.
Salfino: I was hoping the Bengals would ice the kicker on a 59-yard field goal attempt before the penalty. There was just no way Jake Elliott was making that.
neil: Yeah, he is no Harrison Butker.
Salfino: Carson Wentz leads the NFL in picks, BTW (tied with Kirk Cousins). I like him, but this is ridiculous.
neil: It is funny that this adds to the Bengals as being the tying-est team of the 2000s. And the Eagles are tied for second. Call it the curse of Donovan McNabb Not Remembering Ties Exist.
It was a terrible day for Philly sports all around. The Eagles choose to punt for a tie instead of going for a win, and the Phillies had a chance to make the playoffs if the following happened:
They won. The Cardinals beat the Brewers. The Padres beat the Giants.
Well, the Cards beat Milwaukee …
and the Padres beat SF …
… and the Phillies lost 5-0 to Tampa, ending their season.
sara.ziegler: Ooof
joshua.hermsmeyer: Philly fans are shook.
Salfino: I’m sure they’re taking it well on sports radio today.
neil: Oh, I’m sure.
Salfino: Last week, they piped in booing for the broadcast.
neil: Pederson is lucky there were no fans, or piped-in booing would be the least of his problems.
Salfino: There may have been just pipes.
sara.ziegler: Let’s move on to another wild ending. The Buffalo Bills withstood a big comeback from the Los Angeles Rams and, aided by a questionable call, took their record to 3-0. Does Josh Allen look any better to you now, Josh?
joshua.hermsmeyer: The thing about Josh Allen’s performance is that no matter what you think about him, you were proved right on Sunday.
Salfino: So true.
The facemask penalty against him was classic.
sara.ziegler: I did not realize quarterbacks could get facemask penalties, LOL.
joshua.hermsmeyer: He made some truly nice throws — I recall one touch pass along the sideline I thought was especially good — and then threw the controversial interception which was wildly ill-advised. And I know Bills fans were upset about it, but there was also offensive pass interference on the play. It was a mess all around.
Salfino: I guess the Bills are hot, but I found the circumstances of their win revolting as a fan. This is a legendary bad call, though I’m sure the NFL will justify it.
in what world is this pass interference? pic.twitter.com/TVbOKk6r3S — Josh Sánchez (@joshnsanchez) September 27, 2020
sara.ziegler: The reffing on Sunday was certainly something. I’m still mad about the phantom horse-collar tackle call that went against the Saints on a Packer drive.
(And the missed offensive pass interference.)
(And the terrible spot on fourth down for the Packers that was eventually overturned.)
Salfino: Josh had the line of the night on the Saints.
joshua.hermsmeyer: Sean Payton dying on Taysom Hill?
Salfino: Yeah. Hilarious and also cosmic justice.
sara.ziegler: I actually guffawed when I saw that tweet, Josh.
joshua.hermsmeyer: Hill is such a strange player to invest so much hope in at this late stage of his career.
Salfino: In four or five years, they may have something.
joshua.hermsmeyer: If you want a switch up from Drew Brees, Let Jameis Cook. Bring Winston in at the end of games where you need to pass to catch up. Now that would be fun.
Salfino: Exactly. I was just going to ask whether the Saints would be better now with Winston. The anti-Brees.
Only 10% of Drew Brees passes went 15+ yards downfield in Week 3. Lowest rate in the NFL. pic.twitter.com/1lZURXhn0S — PFF (@PFF) September 28, 2020
And Brees got bailed out by Alvin Kamara on that slow-motion 52-yard TD jaunt.
sara.ziegler: How worried should the Saints be about Brees’s arm right now?
Salfino: I love how they ask Brees how he feels. Name the last old athlete who said, “Yeah, I’ve lost it.” Probably Mickey Mantle. (Ironically, modern stats say that Mantle did NOT lose it.)
joshua.hermsmeyer: Sara, he looked better to me as the game went on. His second TD pass had some zip on it. But he certainly didn’t look confident in either what he was seeing or in his ability to get the ball where it needed to be, based on all the double clutching he did in the first half.
Salfino: He had an 18-yarder to a wide-open Emmanuel Sanders that barely got there. It was embarrassing.
sara.ziegler: And yet … the Saints nearly won that game, against a Green Bay team that seems legit.
joshua.hermsmeyer: The Packers won with play-action. It was the difference in the game, like it usually is.
Salfino: They’ve scored the sixth-most points ever for a 3-0 team. I did not think they were going to be a juggernaut offensively, with their apparent desire to run more.
They beat it to death on the telecasts, but Aaron Rodgers is the all-time master of the free play.
sara.ziegler: And the damn hard count.
joshua.hermsmeyer: Truth. It was a vivid example of the loss of one aspect of home field advantage.
Salfino: That is such a good point. That could not have happened without COVID-19.
Does playing games in empty stadiums make the Packers a win better? Neil?
neil: IDK how much effect the home field has had with no fans. Home teams have won 54.3 percent of games so far, which is below the usual norm … but above what last year had WITH fans (52.0 percent).
FWIW, baseball’s home winning percentage was higher this season without fans than in 2019 as well.
Salfino: But could some QBs like Rodgers, who use that kind of hard-count/free-play gamesmanship, have a bigger edge?
neil: Certainly if crowd noise (or the lack thereof) factors more into your techniques, you will benefit more.
sara.ziegler: It will be fascinating to look at that over the course of the season.
joshua.hermsmeyer: Yeah, it seems like the advantage from not having a home-field crowd isn’t evenly distributed across all teams. One thing that does seem to be real is the elevated pace of play. Bettors seem to be making some money on it.
Preston Johnson reports that pace is up in 2020, 1.3 seconds faster than last year, which leads to more scoring overall.
Salfino: Maybe teams can communicate more easily and get players on and off the field faster with no noise, as well.
neil: Total points per game are up over 50 so far this season!
That is wild.
sara.ziegler: Wow
Well, let’s move to another game that saw a) more than 50 points scored; b) a quarterback controversy; and c) yet another full-scale collapse.
Bears-Falcons!
neil: Oh, God, the Falcons.
joshua.hermsmeyer: The Falcons need to be a feature in every win probability model going forward.
Salfino: They’re the first team ever with two losses in a season when they had 15-plus-point fourth-quarter leads, and they did it IN BACK-TO-BACK WEEKS. Ouch.
I’m shocked the Chargers never did it.
joshua.hermsmeyer: I can’t imagine how it must feel to be a Falcons fan, or how it must feel to face the locker room as Dan Quinn.
neil: They’re on another level of win probability lost per game in the fourth quarter.
The Falcons just keep giving away games Worst win probability added (WPA) per game by each team unit in the fourth quarter, 2020 NFL season 4th Qtr WPA PER Game Team Record Offense Defense Sp. Tms Total Falcons 0-3 -0.06 -0.34 -0.23 -0.63 Bengals 0-2-1 +0.05 -0.22 -0.15 -0.32 Texans 0-3 -0.03 -0.20 +0.00 -0.23 49ers 2-1 +0.07 -0.26 -0.01 -0.20 Broncos 0-3 +0.00 -0.20 +0.00 -0.20 Colts 2-1 -0.06 -0.13 -0.01 -0.20 Eagles 0-2-1 +0.01 -0.18 -0.01 -0.18 Dolphins 1-2 +0.12 -0.27 -0.01 -0.16 Vikings 0-3 +0.01 +0.00 -0.17 -0.16 Saints 1-2 -0.07 -0.03 -0.01 -0.11 Lions 1-2 +0.04 -0.17 +0.04 -0.09 Giants 0-3 -0.06 -0.07 +0.04 -0.09 Source: ESPN Stats & Information Group
sara.ziegler: Damn.
Salfino: And of course the Bears have two wins like this, which must be similarly rare. Nick Foles is the QB now, right?
The Nick Foles era in P̶h̶i̶l̶a̶d̶e̶l̶p̶h̶i̶a̶, S̶t̶. L̶o̶u̶i̶s̶, P̶h̶i̶l̶a̶d̶e̶l̶p̶h̶i̶a̶, J̶a̶c̶k̶s̶o̶n̶v̶i̶l̶l̶e̶, Chicago has begun. — Michael Salfino (@MichaelSalfino) September 27, 2020
sara.ziegler: It doesn’t seem possible that Mitch Trubisky could hold on to his starting job now. But it didn’t seem possible that he would win the starting job in the first place!
Salfino: Well, like we said, I get that the Bears got two outs by trying Trubisky first. But I don’t think he can bounce back from this. Maybe it’s possible without fans? Either way, he has no business starting again.
neil: Matt Nagy lucked out. He got to give Trubisky a look AND still get out of it 3-0.
Salfino: That’s just amazing.
sara.ziegler: It’s really incredible.
joshua.hermsmeyer: The most fraudulent 3-0 team? I guess the Titans have won three close games as well.
Salfino: Don’t go there, Josh.
joshua.hermsmeyer: I have my Pythagorean formulas all ready to go, Mike.
Salfino: I was thinking of Sara.
sara.ziegler: Hey, I took the Titans in the Hot Takedown Survivor Pool.
neil: The Titans only have a +2.0 point differential per game; Bears are +4.0.
Salfino: Hey, at least the Vikings have found a receiver.
Justin Jefferson is the 1st @Vikings rookie with 100 receiving yards in a half since Randy Moss on Nov. 26, 1998 against the Cowboys. That was Moss’ famous Thanksgiving performance – 3 catches, 163 yards, 3 TD (51-yd, 56-yd, 56-yd scores). pic.twitter.com/v2f3j7OjN2 — ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) September 27, 2020
sara.ziegler: That will be great in all the games they lose 41-40.
joshua.hermsmeyer: The fruits of the Stefon Diggs trade.
Salfino: Stephen Gostkowski has made three game-winning field goals in a row, and he isn’t even good anymore. Sums up the Titans.
(I miss the 1998 Vikings.)
sara.ziegler: LOL, so do I!
Salfino: And the 1998 Jets.
sara.ziegler: Before we wrap up here, I wanted to talk for a second about the Lions-Cardinals game, which did not go at all how I expected it to.
Did Matt Patricia buy himself more time this season with that win?
Salfino: Kyler Murray blew it. Love the kid, but that was bad. Three picks is like minus-12 points. He just gave the game away.
neil: I thought we’d get ANOTHER tie in that one.
Detroit and Arizona tied last year, too.
joshua.hermsmeyer: Both teams had similar expected points added per play, so yeah, I think you can hang this on Kyler’s turnovers. The Cardinals actually had a higher success rate and a higher third-down conversion percentage. Not sure how much credit I’d give Patricia.
Salfino: Do you feel ripped off that the Cowboys should be 0-3?
joshua.hermsmeyer: Better 1-2 team: Cowboys or Dolphins? (It’s actually close by EPA per play!)
Salfino: The NFC East should have just one win, by Washington over another NFC East team.
neil: Speaking of, nice to see the Browns get one over the Football Team. Second-most generically named team beats the most generically named team
Salfino: Well, Cleveland was named after Paul Brown. Not that generic. Seems it now, though.
neil: Yes, most people now probably think they are just named after the color Brown.
joshua.hermsmeyer: I did, for a long time.
neil: (The generic helmets don’t help.)
joshua.hermsmeyer: I also have no idea what the Dog Pound has to do with anything.
neil: The Browns are above .500 for the first time since … when again? 2014!
Salfino: But don’t they seem fraudulent? They have no passing game whatsoever. Baker Mayfield is a game manager.
Free Baker!
neil: LOL, yes, they do seem fraudulent: -13 point differential despite being 2-1.
Salfino: That was another game the QB gave away. Dwayne Haskins was gaffe-prone, as usual.
joshua.hermsmeyer: The curse of Sashi Brown is that the Browns would finally get good at the same time that Baltimore has Lamar Jackson.
neil: Baltimore has been cursing the Browns for YEARS.
(I will take any excuse to post a Jon Bois video.)
sara.ziegler: If Baker just drops his Progressive commercials, maybe this can be his year.
Salfino: It wasn’t me this time!
Check out our latest NFL predictions.


fivethirthyeight--2020-09-28--Trump Is An Underdog, But The Electoral College’s Republican Tilt Improves His Chances

Even if you ’ re not following the polls super closely like those of us at FiveThirtyEight , you probably know that Joe Biden has both a sizable and fairly stable lead over President Trump .
However , you shouldn ’ t count Trump out just yet .
Trump currently has a nearly 1 in 4 shot of winning the election , according to our presidential forecast , even though he only has a 1 in 10 chance of winning the national popular vote .
That ’ s , of course , due to the Electoral College , in which @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Historically , which party enjoys an advantage in the Electoral College ebbs and flows ; sometimes the Democrats benefit from it ; at other times , the Republicans .
But in 2020 , the Electoral College is clearly boosting Trump ’ s odds of winning reelection .
That ’ s because the states that are most likely to decide the contest are somewhat more Republican-leaning than the country as a whole , as the table below shows .
Overall , these 14 states decide the election in 94 percent of FiveThirtyEight ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ out of 10 simulations , the tipping-point state is one of the 11 that may vote more Republican than the country .
Meanwhile , only three of these states may vote to the left of the country , too , and of those , only Colorado and Virginia look like safe bets to vote more Democratic at this point .
Collectively , what this means is that Trump has a better shot to win than if he had to win the national popular vote Take a state like Pennsylvania to see what I @ @ @ @ @ @ @ likely tipping-point state in the Electoral College ( nearly a 1 in 3 chance ) , and at the moment , Biden is projected to win there by 4.5 points .
But even if that were to happen , that still puts Pennsylvania 2.5 points to the right of the forecast ’ s national margin .
What that means is if the polls were to tighten and Biden ’ s national advantage slips , the rightward tilt of Pennsylvania could very well help Trump win .
And because most of the other likely @ @ @ @ @ @ @ capture enough right-leaning battleground states to win a majority in the Electoral College without winning the national popular vote .
Now , as we said at the outset , the Electoral College ’ s GOP bias is by no means permanent , and even in 2020 , its Republican lean might be insufficient for Trump to win reelection .
( It remains to be seen if the death of Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg notably alters the political environment . )
But nonetheless , the Republicans ’ Electoral College advantage this cycle @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Trump victory than if he had to win via the popular vote .
Sum it up this way : Biden enjoys a 9 in 10 chance of winning the national popular vote but slightly less than an 8 in 10 shot of winning the election .
The difference between those two probabilities is , roughly speaking , the Republican advantage in the Electoral College this year .
We can really see how this works if we break down the national popular vote margin in our forecast ’ s simulations and Biden ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
As you can see in the table below , Biden is only favored to win if he wins by at least 3 points nationally — one more point than Clinton ’ s 2016 margin .
Anything less than that makes him at best not even a 50-50 bet to win and , in most cases , a clear underdog .
In fact , Biden ’ s chances only become pretty certain if he wins by more than 5 points nationally , showing just how large the Republicans ’ Electoral College edge might @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , Biden ’ s lead has to get up to 9 points before there are no simulations in our forecast in which Trump wins .
Meanwhile , Trump is almost guaranteed to win the election if he wins the national popular vote , and he actually wins a majority in the Electoral College while losing the popular vote ( 12 percent ) more often than when he wins the most votes ( 10 percent ) .
The good news for Biden , though , is that he has nearly twice as good a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ by at least 8 points ( 43 percent ) as Trump has of winning , period .
In other words , in more than half of the cases where Biden wins in our forecast simulations , he wins by at least that much .
So it ’ s also entirely possible that Biden will end up claiming a sizable victory .
Yet it ’ s also quite possible that Biden loses while winning the popular vote , and that scenario boils down to the current rightward tilt of the key battleground states that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Together , those states give Trump a real shot at another four years in the White House , especially if the race tightens over the next 36 days .

Even if you’re not following the polls super closely like those of us at FiveThirtyEight, you probably know that Joe Biden has both a sizable and fairly stable lead over President Trump.
However, you shouldn’t count Trump out just yet. Trump currently has a nearly 1 in 4 shot of winning the election, according to our presidential forecast, even though he only has a 1 in 10 chance of winning the national popular vote.
That’s, of course, due to the Electoral College, in which Trump has an edge this year.
Historically, which party enjoys an advantage in the Electoral College ebbs and flows; sometimes the Democrats benefit from it; at other times, the Republicans. But in 2020, the Electoral College is clearly boosting Trump’s odds of winning reelection.
That’s because the states that are most likely to decide the contest are somewhat more Republican-leaning than the country as a whole, as the table below shows.
Battleground states in 2020 lean Republican Forecasted vote margin in states that have at least a 1 percent chance of being the tipping-point* state, according to the FiveThirtyEight presidential model as of 9:15 a.m. Eastern on Sept. 28 State Tipping-point chance Forecast margin Lean Relative to Nation Texas 1% R+3.8 R+10.9 Georgia 2 R+2.1 R+9.2 Ohio 5 D+0.4 R+6.7 North Carolina 5 D+0.7 R+6.3 Florida 12 D+1.4 R+5.7 Arizona 6 D+2.7 R+4.4 Pennsylvania 32 D+4.5 R+2.5 Wisconsin 9 D+6.2 R+0.9 Nevada 3 D+6.5 R+0.6 New Hampshire 2 D+6.5 R+0.6 Michigan 9 D+7.0 R+0.1 Minnesota 3 D+7.9 D+0.9 Colorado 3 D+9.1 D+2.0 Virginia 1 D+11.0 D+3.9 *A state’s tipping-point chance is based on the odds it will provide the decisive vote in the Electoral College.
Overall, these 14 states decide the election in 94 percent of FiveThirtyEight’s forecast simulations, and in almost 9 out of 10 simulations, the tipping-point state is one of the 11 that may vote more Republican than the country. Meanwhile, only three of these states may vote to the left of the country, too, and of those, only Colorado and Virginia look like safe bets to vote more Democratic at this point. Collectively, what this means is that Trump has a better shot to win than if he had to win the national popular vote
Take a state like Pennsylvania to see what I mean. Pennsylvania is currently the most likely tipping-point state in the Electoral College (nearly a 1 in 3 chance), and at the moment, Biden is projected to win there by 4.5 points. But even if that were to happen, that still puts Pennsylvania 2.5 points to the right of the forecast’s national margin. What that means is if the polls were to tighten and Biden’s national advantage slips, the rightward tilt of Pennsylvania could very well help Trump win. And because most of the other likely tipping-point states lean Republican, Trump could capture enough right-leaning battleground states to win a majority in the Electoral College without winning the national popular vote.
Now, as we said at the outset, the Electoral College’s GOP bias is by no means permanent, and even in 2020, its Republican lean might be insufficient for Trump to win reelection. (It remains to be seen if the death of Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg notably alters the political environment.) But nonetheless, the Republicans’ Electoral College advantage this cycle leaves the door more open to a Trump victory than if he had to win via the popular vote.
Sum it up this way: Biden enjoys a 9 in 10 chance of winning the national popular vote but slightly less than an 8 in 10 shot of winning the election. The difference between those two probabilities is, roughly speaking, the Republican advantage in the Electoral College this year.
We can really see how this works if we break down the national popular vote margin in our forecast’s simulations and Biden’s chances of winning based on different scenarios. As you can see in the table below, Biden is only favored to win if he wins by at least 3 points nationally — one more point than Clinton’s 2016 margin. Anything less than that makes him at best not even a 50-50 bet to win and, in most cases, a clear underdog.
To be favored, Biden must win the popular vote by 3+ points Biden’s chances of victory at different national popular vote scenarios, plus the likelihood of those scenarios, according to the FiveThirtyEight presidential model as of 9:15 a.m. Eastern on Sept. 28 National popular vote scenario Scenario chance Biden chance in scenario Trump wins popular vote 10% 0.8% Biden wins by 0 to 1 points 3 7.4 Biden wins by 1 to 2 points 4 19.7 Biden wins by 2 to 3 points 5 44.9 Biden wins by 3 to 4 points 6 69.6 Biden wins by 4 to 5 points 6 88.4 Biden wins by 5 to 6 points 7 96.0 Biden wins by 6 to 7 points 7 98.9 Biden wins by 7 to 8 points 7 99.8 Biden wins by 8 or more points 43 100.0
In fact, Biden’s chances only become pretty certain if he wins by more than 5 points nationally, showing just how large the Republicans’ Electoral College edge might be in 2020. And even then, Biden’s lead has to get up to 9 points before there are no simulations in our forecast in which Trump wins. Meanwhile, Trump is almost guaranteed to win the election if he wins the national popular vote, and he actually wins a majority in the Electoral College while losing the popular vote (12 percent) more often than when he wins the most votes (10 percent).
The good news for Biden, though, is that he has nearly twice as good a chance of winning the national popular vote by at least 8 points (43 percent) as Trump has of winning, period. In other words, in more than half of the cases where Biden wins in our forecast simulations, he wins by at least that much. So it’s also entirely possible that Biden will end up claiming a sizable victory.
Yet it’s also quite possible that Biden loses while winning the popular vote, and that scenario boils down to the current rightward tilt of the key battleground states that are most likely to decide this election. Together, those states give Trump a real shot at another four years in the White House, especially if the race tightens over the next 36 days.


fivethirthyeight--2020-09-28--Do You Buy That … Democrats Have An Edge With Five Weeks To Go Until The Elections?

Do You Buy That … Democrats Have An Edge With Five Weeks To Go Until The Elections ?


fivethirthyeight--2020-09-28--Can The Sixers Find A Way To Win It All With Embiid And Simmons?

The Philadelphia 76ers are championship hopefuls at a crossroads .
Year 3 of Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons , the franchise ’ s prized gems by way of The Process , is in the books .
It started just weeks after the team lost the 2019 Eastern Conference semifinals to the eventual champions , when Philly parted ways with Jimmy Butler and committed $ 277 million to Al Horford and Tobias Harris .
It ended , as Butler was leading Miami to a berth in the NBA Finals , with a first-round sweep and the dismissal of head coach Brett @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Embiid and Simmons share the court have fueled speculation that a trade of one of them may be coming .
But that could be shortsighted : The franchise ’ s cornerstones rank eighth among 84 qualified duos in net rating over their three seasons together ( +9.4 ) , per NBA.com .
That is reason enough to continue building around the only two holdovers from The Process .
Now the team is searching for a head coach and facing a contract conundrum , heading into another offseason with the puzzle of salvaging the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ actualizing a championship around the star duo .
The 76ers last made the NBA Finals in 2001 , and they have since been journeying a winding road trying to get back to the championship round .
From the 2013-14 to 2016-17 season , tanking defined the franchise , as Philly posted an NBA-low .229 win percentage .
Such dramatic bottoming out would discourage most front offices , but former general manager Sam Hinkie went in search of star power despite mounting losses and high roster turnover .
Once Philly found its newest franchise @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in 2017-18 , its highest single-season total since that 2001 Finals run .
Even better , it appeared to have a stable core after years of high roster turnover , most often surrounding Embiid and Simmons with J.J. Redick , Robert Covington and Dario Šarić .
Over 601 regular-season minutes , the 76ers ’ new core outscored opponents by 20.5 points per 100 possessions , that sample size being Philly ’ s largest for any five-man lineup since Hinkie ’ s first season with the team .
Then came the 2018 Eastern Conference @ @ @ @ @ @ @ into better 3-point shooting with Simmons on the bench ( 42 percent ) than on the court ( 27 percent ) , per NBA Advanced Stats .
Simmons had been one of four players during the 2017-18 regular season to score more than 1,000 points in the paint , so Boston prioritized obscuring his path to the rim throughout the series .
The result ?
Philly ’ s net rating swung by a team-worst 27.7 points with that season ’ s Rookie of the Year on the court , paving the way for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 76ers ’ elimination , Embiid reflected on Boston ’ s formidability before facing the road ahead .
“ They play well together , ” he said about the Celtics .
“ They made some tough shots during the whole series .
They defended us pretty well , too .
It sucks , but you got ta learn and come next year and do better.
” Roughly six months later , the team indeed got better when then-rookie general manager Elton Brand acquired Butler , an All-Star wing , for Covington and Šarić , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for their title pursuit ’ s requisite third star .
“ We have a championship window that ’ s centered around the continued progression of our talented young core , as well as our ability to add elite players who elevate our program , ” Brand told the media at Butler ’ s team introduction on Nov. 12 , 2018 .
“ In Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons , we have two of the NBA ’ s top-20 players .
Now we ’ ve added a third top-20 player in Jimmy Butler , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s very best on both ends of the floor.
” The acquisition of Butler paid dividends for Philly , which obtained one of the NBA ’ s premiere late-game performers effectively on a whim .
By the end of the 2018-19 regular season , the 76ers had a +41 point differential in clutch-time , the final five minutes of any game with the score within 5 points , per NBA Advanced Stats .
Almost as an act of foreshadowing , Philly tied eventual champion Toronto in that category .
But those dividends didn @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of the East semis , when Kawhi Leonard delivered the Raptors 41 points and a series-clinching fadeaway .
During the 2019 playoffs , the quintet of Embiid , Simmons , Butler , Redick and Harris sported a net rating of 23.9 , tied for third-best among 124 qualified lineups over the past two decades , according to NBA.com .
In that span , only the Lakers ( 2007-08 to 2009-10 ) and Mavericks ( 2010-11 ) had more effective lineups en route to a combined three titles and four Finals appearances .
In @ @ @ @ @ @ @ worked .
But it was short lived .
The fearsome trio of Embiid , Simmons and Butler ended without them playing a full season together , let alone fulfilling the championship potential Brand had envisioned just six months prior .
Because the 76ers didn ’ t secure Butler long-term and he left for Miami , they ended up compounding the contrasts between Embiid and Simmons by shrinking their room for error and scoring .
As Butler cemented the Heat ’ s championship vision , Philly ’ s own was obscured by shrunken spacing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Embiid to question the team ’ s offensive identity altogether .
“ Like I say from time to time , you don ’ t know what you ’ re getting , ” the center explained in February .
“ I don ’ t know if I ’ m getting into the game and if I ’ m getting the ball .
… I got to spend a lot of time at the 3-point line , just to make sure there ’ s some spacing .
Everybody keeps saying , ‘ Get in the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ understand basketball , you ’ ve got to find that balance.
” Philly struggled finding balance this year with Embiid and Simmons , shooting just 33.9 percent on contested 3-pointers when the duo shared the court during the regular season and playoffs , per Second Spectrum .
That figure was down from the 76ers ’ 2017-18 clip of 36.3 percent , which ranked seventh in the NBA that season .
Such regression doesn ’ t bode well late in the playoffs , when it ’ s important to have shot-makers with confidence to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , after Boston sent Philly home for the second time in three years , Brand told the media he expected changes within the organization , but none of those changes involved trading Embiid or Simmons .
“ I ’ m looking to complement them better , ” Brand said when he announced Brown ’ s dismissal on Aug. 25 .
The Sixers have plenty of positives to build on — and proof they have a championship-caliber duo with the right leadership , floor-spacers and versatile playmakers .
Over Embiid and Simmons ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ tied with the Nuggets for the NBA ’ s fifth-best regular-season win percentage ( .616 ) .
Their potential this season wasn ’ t truly realized : Because of Simmons ’ s knee injury , the Sixers ’ ideal starting lineup of Simmons , Embiid , Horford , Harris and Josh Richardson didn ’ t play a single postseason minute together .
And Philly ’ s prior effort — its second playoff run with Embiid and Simmons — had gotten tantalizingly close , falling on only four bounces .
To maximize their two @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , the 76ers must provide requisite scheming , shot-creation and versatility .
Embiid and Simmons are , after all , the reasons The Process is no more .
Though there is no easy path to a title , the 76ers must figure out the ways they ’ ve obstructed their own .
Otherwise , the team risks remaining on the wrong side of the buzzer when it matters the most .

Can The Sixers Find A Way To Win It All With Embiid And Simmons?
The Philadelphia 76ers are championship hopefuls at a crossroads.
Year 3 of Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons, the franchise’s prized gems by way of The Process, is in the books. It started just weeks after the team lost the 2019 Eastern Conference semifinals to the eventual champions, when Philly parted ways with Jimmy Butler and committed $277 million to Al Horford and Tobias Harris. It ended, as Butler was leading Miami to a berth in the NBA Finals, with a first-round sweep and the dismissal of head coach Brett Brown.
The reasonable floor-spacing concerns when Embiid and Simmons share the court have fueled speculation that a trade of one of them may be coming. But that could be shortsighted: The franchise’s cornerstones rank eighth among 84 qualified duos in net rating over their three seasons together (+9.4), per NBA.com. That is reason enough to continue building around the only two holdovers from The Process.
Now the team is searching for a head coach and facing a contract conundrum, heading into another offseason with the puzzle of salvaging the long-term compatibility of Simmons and Embiid and actualizing a championship around the star duo.
The 76ers last made the NBA Finals in 2001, and they have since been journeying a winding road trying to get back to the championship round. From the 2013-14 to 2016-17 season, tanking defined the franchise, as Philly posted an NBA-low .229 win percentage. Such dramatic bottoming out would discourage most front offices, but former general manager Sam Hinkie went in search of star power despite mounting losses and high roster turnover.
Embiid and Simmons turned Philly around Philadelphia 76ers winning percentage and playoff appearances since the 2013-14 season Win % Win % rank Playoff apps First four seasons 0.229 Last 0 Last three seasons 0.616 T-5th 3 The team’s current playoff streak is the longest since the 1998-99 through 2002-03 seasons. Source: Basketball-Reference.com
Once Philly found its newest franchise cornerstones, the team won 52 games in 2017-18, its highest single-season total since that 2001 Finals run. Even better, it appeared to have a stable core after years of high roster turnover, most often surrounding Embiid and Simmons with J.J. Redick, Robert Covington and Dario Šarić. Over 601 regular-season minutes, the 76ers’ new core outscored opponents by 20.5 points per 100 possessions, that sample size being Philly’s largest for any five-man lineup since Hinkie’s first season with the team.
Then came the 2018 Eastern Conference semifinals. The Celtics forced the 76ers into better 3-point shooting with Simmons on the bench (42 percent) than on the court (27 percent), per NBA Advanced Stats. Simmons had been one of four players during the 2017-18 regular season to score more than 1,000 points in the paint, so Boston prioritized obscuring his path to the rim throughout the series. The result? Philly’s net rating swung by a team-worst 27.7 points with that season’s Rookie of the Year on the court, paving the way for a 4-1 series loss.
Following the 76ers’ elimination, Embiid reflected on Boston’s formidability before facing the road ahead. “They play well together,” he said about the Celtics. “They made some tough shots during the whole series. They defended us pretty well, too. It sucks, but you gotta learn and come next year and do better.”
Roughly six months later, the team indeed got better when then-rookie general manager Elton Brand acquired Butler, an All-Star wing, for Covington and Šarić, effectively cashing in Philly’s chips for their title pursuit’s requisite third star.
“We have a championship window that’s centered around the continued progression of our talented young core, as well as our ability to add elite players who elevate our program,” Brand told the media at Butler’s team introduction on Nov. 12, 2018. “In Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons, we have two of the NBA’s top-20 players. Now we’ve added a third top-20 player in Jimmy Butler, who is one of the NBA’s very best on both ends of the floor.”
The acquisition of Butler paid dividends for Philly, which obtained one of the NBA’s premiere late-game performers effectively on a whim. By the end of the 2018-19 regular season, the 76ers had a +41 point differential in clutch-time, the final five minutes of any game with the score within 5 points, per NBA Advanced Stats. Almost as an act of foreshadowing, Philly tied eventual champion Toronto in that category.
But those dividends didn’t pay off in Game 7 of the East semis, when Kawhi Leonard delivered the Raptors 41 points and a series-clinching fadeaway.
During the 2019 playoffs, the quintet of Embiid, Simmons, Butler, Redick and Harris sported a net rating of 23.9, tied for third-best among 124 qualified lineups over the past two decades, according to NBA.com. In that span, only the Lakers (2007-08 to 2009-10) and Mavericks (2010-11) had more effective lineups en route to a combined three titles and four Finals appearances.
Last year’s best Sixers lineup looked like a champion Highest postseason net rating among five-man lineups since 2000 Season Team Champ? Net rating Lineup 2010-11 Mavericks ✓ 38.1 D. Nowitzki, T. Chandler, J. Terry, S. Marion, J. Kidd 2007-10* Lakers ✓ 24.5 K. Bryant, P. Gasol, L. Odom, D. Fisher, L. Walton 2018-19 76ers 23.9 J. Embiid, B. Simmons, J. Butler, J.J. Redick, T. Harris 2011-12 Celtics 23.9 K. Garnett, P. Pierce, R. Rondo, A. Bradley, B. Bass Lineups with a minimum of 100 minutes played together. *Combined seasons. Source: NBA Advanced Stats
In short, Philly finally found something that worked. But it was short lived.
The fearsome trio of Embiid, Simmons and Butler ended without them playing a full season together, let alone fulfilling the championship potential Brand had envisioned just six months prior. Because the 76ers didn’t secure Butler long-term and he left for Miami, they ended up compounding the contrasts between Embiid and Simmons by shrinking their room for error and scoring. As Butler cemented the Heat’s championship vision, Philly’s own was obscured by shrunken spacing and an inconsistent tempo, enough for Embiid to question the team’s offensive identity altogether.
“Like I say from time to time, you don’t know what you’re getting,” the center explained in February. “I don’t know if I’m getting into the game and if I’m getting the ball. … I got to spend a lot of time at the 3-point line, just to make sure there’s some spacing. Everybody keeps saying, ‘Get in the post!’ But if you actually understand basketball, you’ve got to find that balance.”
Embiid gets closer looks without Simmons Joel Embiid’s career stats per 36 minutes with teammate Ben Simmons on and off the court With Ben Simmons… Direct post-ups 3-pt FGA Avg. FGA distance On the court 8.9 4.0 13.1 feet Off the court 11.9 3.1 12.1 Including playoffs minutes. Source: Second Spectrum
Philly struggled finding balance this year with Embiid and Simmons, shooting just 33.9 percent on contested 3-pointers when the duo shared the court during the regular season and playoffs, per Second Spectrum. That figure was down from the 76ers’ 2017-18 clip of 36.3 percent, which ranked seventh in the NBA that season. Such regression doesn’t bode well late in the playoffs, when it’s important to have shot-makers with confidence to score over good defenses.
Last month, after Boston sent Philly home for the second time in three years, Brand told the media he expected changes within the organization, but none of those changes involved trading Embiid or Simmons.
“I’m looking to complement them better,” Brand said when he announced Brown’s dismissal on Aug. 25.
The Sixers have plenty of positives to build on — and proof they have a championship-caliber duo with the right leadership, floor-spacers and versatile playmakers. Over Embiid and Simmons’s three seasons together, the team is tied with the Nuggets for the NBA’s fifth-best regular-season win percentage (.616). Their potential this season wasn’t truly realized: Because of Simmons’s knee injury, the Sixers’ ideal starting lineup of Simmons, Embiid, Horford, Harris and Josh Richardson didn’t play a single postseason minute together. And Philly’s prior effort — its second playoff run with Embiid and Simmons — had gotten tantalizingly close, falling on only four bounces.
To maximize their two generational talents and end their Finals drought, the 76ers must provide requisite scheming, shot-creation and versatility. Embiid and Simmons are, after all, the reasons The Process is no more. Though there is no easy path to a title, the 76ers must figure out the ways they’ve obstructed their own.
Otherwise, the team risks remaining on the wrong side of the buzzer when it matters the most.
Check out our latest NBA predictions.


fivethirthyeight--2020-09-29--Will The First Presidential Debate Shake Up The Race?

Welcome to a special edition of FiveThirtyEight ’ s politics chat .
The transcript below has been lightly edited .
sarah ( Sarah Frostenson , politics editor ) : We ’ ve been saying for a while now that we ’ re in the thick of the presidential election , and it ’ s true , we are !
We ’ ve just a little over a month now to go , and people are already busy casting ballots .
Today , though , marks Americans ’ first real opportunity to see President Trump and Joe Biden go head-to-head in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
The candidates are expected to stick to six topics : • Race and Violence in Our Cities • The Integrity of the Election The reality going into tonight is this : Donald Trump is fairly far behind Joe Biden in the polls , and has been for a while now .
According to our forecast , he still has a very real chance of winning , but he is the underdog .
So let ’ s start there .
Given that Biden is ahead ( and has been all cycle ) , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ?
Or no , Sarah , I disagree .
nrakich ( Nathaniel Rakich , elections analyst ) : Yeah , Sarah , I think that ’ s right .
We shouldn ’ t overthink this : As long as everything stays the way it ’ s been going , that ’ s good for Biden .
The debates , though , represent a chance for the status quo to be disrupted .
Now , I know that we ’ ve written in the past that the first debate typically helps the challenger — @ @ @ @ @ @ @ I ’ m not sure the ingredients are there for that this year .
sarah : Say more about that .
Why not ?
Because Biden already has such a sizable lead nationally ?
nrakich : For one thing , there are very few undecided voters this year .
For another , I don ’ t think Trump has some aura of incumbency around him — he ’ s pretty unpopular .
Not to mention , both Democrats and Republicans are solidly behind their candidate this year , so there ’ s less @ @ @ @ @ @ @ home ” to the base .
I ’ ll also point out that the first debate in 2016 actually seemed to help Hillary Clinton ( who was a member of the incumbent party ) .
Clinton led in our national polling average by 1.4 points on the day of the first debate ; a week later , her lead was up to 3.7 points .
So I ’ m not convinced that the “ the challenger usually benefits ” thing is an ironclad rule so much as it is just happenstance .
natesilver @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ) : I might point out that Clinton wasn ’ t actually the challenger in 2016 .
There was no incumbent , although she was sort of a quasi-incumbent .
sarah : What does a situation in which Biden actually loses some standing tonight look like , you think ?
perry ( Perry Bacon Jr. , senior writer ) : The idea that Biden has the most to lose because he is ahead seems correct to me .
I honestly think the worse thing for Biden is if he forgets something like when @ @ @ @ @ @ @ agencies he was proposing to eliminate in a debate in the 2012 cycle .
One of the Trump team ’ s biggest arguments is that Biden is too old to be president , and kind of out of it mentally .
So a major gaffe that is not really about policy and is easy for the media to cover that could be replayed in a way that might reach undecided voters , who are surely not watching this debate in full , would help Trump .
natesilver : Yeah .
They ’ re @ @ @ @ @ @ @ On the other hand , if there are verbal gaffes — and those are fairly common from Biden — they ’ re priming folks to give it a lot of attention .
nrakich : Yeah , I agree with all that .
I ’ d also say that Trump could help his cause by appearing prepared and shooting from the hip less than he usually does .
Beyond that , if he can center the debate on typical Democratic-Republican partisan issues ( rather than , say , the coronavirus , which Americans say @ @ @ @ @ @ @ has mishandled ) , that might cause some reversion to the mean .
sarah : Yeah , this kind of segues into what are the respective candidates ’ liabilities ?
Biden ’ s is that he ’ s not that great of a debater , right ?
That he makes some verbal gaffes , which support this idea that the Trump campaign has leaned into : He ’ s too old to be president .
But doesn ’ t Trump have a lot of liabilities , too ?
Especially when you consider some @ @ @ @ @ @ @ always playing by the book ?
natesilver : What are the odds that Trump seems well prepared ?
He seems to think an off-the-cuff style works for him , but it ’ s not clear that he ’ s right .
nrakich : Biden had a few poor moments in the Democratic primary debates , although they obviously didn ’ t hurt him that much .
I ’ d also point out that Biden kinda has a track record of shifting into a higher gear when the stakes are higher .
For instance @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ones before Nevada and South Carolina , when his candidacy was hanging by a thread , and he did very well in the 2008 and 2012 vice presidential debates , too .
In addition , Biden ’ s worst moments in the primary debates tended to happen at the end of a two- or three-hour debate .
The fact then that tonight ’ s debate will last only 90 minutes could be good for him .
sarah : One thing I thought was interesting in that article Nathaniel was citing earlier is that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ it really is the first debate that can shake up the race the most .
Do we think that ’ s still the case ?
I ask , as we kind of didn ’ t see a convention bounce this year with everything going on , right ?
natesilver : I think it makes sense to expect the first debate to be the most important one .
It ’ s more of a novelty to see the candidates together on stage for the first time .
And expectations tend to be better calibrated @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Now , I would say that both Biden and Trump are relatively uneven debaters , so maybe the first debate won ’ t be as predictive of the remaining debates as normal .
nrakich : Yeah , the convention bounces were minimal , if they happened at all .
That ’ s actually an interesting question : Is there a correlation between the size of the convention bounce and the size of any debate bounces ?
I ’ d expect that the same reason we barely saw a convention bounce this year @ @ @ @ @ @ @ less likely that we ’ ll see a debate bounce .
natesilver : I mean , you ’ d expect polls to move less in general under high polarization .
And that ’ s basically been true so far this year .
The debate wouldn ’ t be an exception to it .
And polls show that fewer voters than in the past say that the debates will matter to their vote this year .
nrakich : Yeah , Biden ’ s lead in our national polling average has been between 6.6 points @ @ @ @ @ @ @ It ’ s been a remarkably steady race .
sarah : So , let ’ s shift gear to the topics — six in total — ranging from their respective track records to the integrity of the election .
Tonight really will cover a wide range of issues , and I ’ m personally a little curious to see how much overlap there is with the other two debates ( I ’ d imagine quite a bit ) .
But of the issues tonight ’ s moderator Chris Wallace and the debate commission @ @ @ @ @ @ @ dominate the evening ?
Or if you think each will be given truly equal time , which does Biden have the upper hand on ?
And which does Trump have the upper hand on ?
For reference the issues are : • Race and Violence in Our Cities • The Integrity of the Election nrakich : Well , Biden should have a clear advantage in the COVID-19 and race and violence in our cities segments .
Polls have consistently shown that voters trust Biden more than Trump to handle those issues .
By @ @ @ @ @ @ @ also show that voters trust Biden over Trump to pick Supreme Court justices , and of course Trump ’ s decision to fill Ruth Bader Ginsburg ’ s seat now rather than wait until after the election is unpopular .
But that segment may play out more along traditional partisan lines , which relatively speaking is good for Trump .
natesilver : I ’ d also say Biden as a clear advantage on the integrity of the election segment and that ’ s a place where Trump could get himself in a lot @ @ @ @ @ @ @ part of me still can ’ t believe we wrote this article about what might happen if Trump won ’ t leave office quietly , but 2020 : Where … anything is possible ?
nrakich : Nate , do you mean like if Trump gets caught saying he won ’ t respect the election results again ?
natesilver : Yeah .
I don ’ t imagine that ’ s a very popular position , although casting doubt on the integrity of the election can also lower turnout .
nrakich : Yeah , and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ where Biden can really go after Trump if he makes a comment like that again — unlike the White House briefing room , an environment that is fairly tightly controlled by the administration .
perry : Biden ’ s vote in support of the Iraq War .
The 1994 crime bill .
He sponsored bills to slow down school integration .
He voted for NAFTA .
He didn ’ t handle the Anita Hill-Clarence Thomas hearings well .
Do these things matter ?
I have no idea .
But sharp questions about this @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the Democratic primary and are a potential weak point now .
I would expect Chris Wallace and Trump in particular to press him on the idea that he supported too much incarceration of Black men .
nrakich : Yeah , Perry , there was a lot of that at the Republican National Convention .
On the surface it appeared aimed at winning over Black voters , but really it may have been more about winning over white voters who are concerned that Trump is racist .
In the debates , it could maybe @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
sarah : Do you think one possible approach for tonight will be Trump trying to paint Biden as too far to the left ?
natesilver : I think the debate is a hard moment to paint Biden as being some big leftist .
He ’ s an old white guy who comes across as pretty affable .
Better to make that argument in ads where you aren ’ t featuring Biden himself as much and can argue he ’ s some sort of Trojan horse .
sarah : What about how Biden @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of his campaign has been about winning back the soul of America , and Americans are really unhappy .
An AP-NORC poll from this summer also found 8 in 10 Americans say the country is heading in the wrong direction .
That ’ s the highest it ’ s been since Trump took office .
perry : I think Biden will lean into the decency/character stuff , but I also think The New York Times ’ s reporting on Trump ’ s tax returns and Trump ’ s pick of Amy Coney Barrett @ @ @ @ @ @ @ talk about policy — namely , that Biden will raise taxes on the super-rich and that Trump is trying to get the Affordable Care Act rolled back or Roe v. Wade overturned with Barrett on the court .
nrakich : Yeah , I actually think the debate will be a big indicator of how big of a role the tax returns story plays .
If Biden really decides to go after Trump on it , it amplifies the story .
If not , the news cycle turns over to whatever topic dominates the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ who “ won ” or “ lost ” a debate is difficult to answer .
Clinton , for instance , got a lot of positive press coverage for how she handled herself in the debates in 2016 , and Trump … won the election .
So what if anything are you doing to “ update your priors ” going into the debate tonight ?
natesilver : I think Clinton won the 2016 debates .
She moved up in the polls after the debates .
But debate bounces can be temporary .
But yeah @ @ @ @ @ @ @ stuff stick ?
What about the election integrity segment ?
Does Biden make some big verbal gaffes or seem “ out of it ” ?
Those are all a bit obvious , I suppose , but they ’ re the things I ’ ll be most interested to watch .
nrakich : Exactly .
I ’ ll just be reminding myself not to overreact to how the polls change after tonight .
Mitt Romney also won the first debate in 2012 , remember ?
But that momentum ( our favorite word ! )
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ much of the electorate already clear on whom they will support , I think the key thing to watch for is : “ What will move undecided voters ?
” I define that as people who are either soft Biden or Trump supporters , backing a third-party candidate or undecided .
And those people aren ’ t likely to tune into a debate but will see whatever two to three moments get replayed on Facebook , shared on social media , etc .
So I think policy disputes aren ’ t likely to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ thing from the debates four years ago was in the final debate when Trump got too physically close to Clinton — and this was after the “ Access Hollywood ” tape had come out .
Does anyone do anything in the debate that becomes a defining moment until the Oct. 7 VP debate ?
nrakich : Yeah , to be honest , I remember Ken Bone more than anything Trump or Clinton did in those debates .
perry : People ’ s views on Trump are so well-defined , I suspect even among @ @ @ @ @ @ @ big to shift those .

Will The First Presidential Debate Shake Up The Race? TBD. But here’s what we’re watching.
Welcome to a special edition of FiveThirtyEight’s politics chat. The transcript below has been lightly edited.
sarah (Sarah Frostenson, politics editor): We’ve been saying for a while now that we’re in the thick of the presidential election, and it’s true, we are! We’ve just a little over a month now to go, and people are already busy casting ballots.
Today, though, marks Americans’ first real opportunity to see President Trump and Joe Biden go head-to-head in the first of three scheduled presidential debates. The candidates are expected to stick to six topics:
The Trump and Biden Records
The Supreme Court
COVID-19
The Economy
Race and Violence in Our Cities
The Integrity of the Election
The reality going into tonight is this: Donald Trump is fairly far behind Joe Biden in the polls, and has been for a while now. According to our forecast, he still has a very real chance of winning, but he is the underdog.
So let’s start there. Given that Biden is ahead (and has been all cycle), does he have more to lose tonight? Or no, Sarah, I disagree.
nrakich (Nathaniel Rakich, elections analyst): Yeah, Sarah, I think that’s right. We shouldn’t overthink this: As long as everything stays the way it’s been going, that’s good for Biden. The debates, though, represent a chance for the status quo to be disrupted.
Now, I know that we’ve written in the past that the first debate typically helps the challenger — in this case, Biden.
But I’m not sure the ingredients are there for that this year.
sarah: Say more about that. Why not? Because Biden already has such a sizable lead nationally?
nrakich: For one thing, there are very few undecided voters this year. For another, I don’t think Trump has some aura of incumbency around him — he’s pretty unpopular.
Not to mention, both Democrats and Republicans are solidly behind their candidate this year, so there’s less room for party members to “come home” to the base.
I’ll also point out that the first debate in 2016 actually seemed to help Hillary Clinton (who was a member of the incumbent party). Clinton led in our national polling average by 1.4 points on the day of the first debate; a week later, her lead was up to 3.7 points.
So I’m not convinced that the “the challenger usually benefits” thing is an ironclad rule so much as it is just happenstance.
natesilver (Nate Silver, editor in chief): I might point out that Clinton wasn’t actually the challenger in 2016. There was no incumbent, although she was sort of a quasi-incumbent.
sarah: What does a situation in which Biden actually loses some standing tonight look like, you think?
perry (Perry Bacon Jr., senior writer): The idea that Biden has the most to lose because he is ahead seems correct to me. I honestly think the worse thing for Biden is if he forgets something like when Rick Perry famously forgot about the federal agencies he was proposing to eliminate in a debate in the 2012 cycle.
One of the Trump team’s biggest arguments is that Biden is too old to be president, and kind of out of it mentally. So a major gaffe that is not really about policy and is easy for the media to cover that could be replayed in a way that might reach undecided voters, who are surely not watching this debate in full, would help Trump.
natesilver: Yeah. They’re setting expectations pretty low for Biden. On the other hand, if there are verbal gaffes — and those are fairly common from Biden — they’re priming folks to give it a lot of attention.
nrakich: Yeah, I agree with all that. I’d also say that Trump could help his cause by appearing prepared and shooting from the hip less than he usually does. Beyond that, if he can center the debate on typical Democratic-Republican partisan issues (rather than, say, the coronavirus, which Americans say 56 percent to 40 percent that he has mishandled), that might cause some reversion to the mean.
sarah: Yeah, this kind of segues into what are the respective candidates’ liabilities? Biden’s is that he’s not that great of a debater, right? That he makes some verbal gaffes, which support this idea that the Trump campaign has leaned into: He’s too old to be president. But doesn’t Trump have a lot of liabilities, too? Especially when you consider some of the risks he takes by not always playing by the book?
natesilver: What are the odds that Trump seems well prepared? He seems to think an off-the-cuff style works for him, but it’s not clear that he’s right.
nrakich: Biden had a few poor moments in the Democratic primary debates, although they obviously didn’t hurt him that much. I’d also point out that Biden kinda has a track record of shifting into a higher gear when the stakes are higher. For instance, his best primary debates were the ones before Nevada and South Carolina, when his candidacy was hanging by a thread, and he did very well in the 2008 and 2012 vice presidential debates, too.
In addition, Biden’s worst moments in the primary debates tended to happen at the end of a two- or three-hour debate. The fact then that tonight’s debate will last only 90 minutes could be good for him.
sarah: One thing I thought was interesting in that article Nathaniel was citing earlier is that regardless of who benefits from tonight, it really is the first debate that can shake up the race the most.
Polls don’t move that much after the first debate Incumbent Party Average Polling Lead Year Post-First Debate End of Campaign Absolute Difference 1976 -3.0 -1.3 1.7 1980 -1.4 -3.8 2.4 1984 +17.0 +17.7 0.7 1988 +5.2 +9.0 3.8 1992 -13.5 -8.2 5.3 1996 +15.1 +12.1 3.0 2000 -1.5 -2.1 0.6 2004 +2.4 +1.0 1.4 2008 -6.0 -7.4 1.4 2012 +0.1 +1.5 1.4 Average 2.2 Sources: National Council On Public Polling, HuffPost Pollster
Do we think that’s still the case?
I ask, as we kind of didn’t see a convention bounce this year with everything going on, right?
natesilver: I think it makes sense to expect the first debate to be the most important one. It’s more of a novelty to see the candidates together on stage for the first time. And expectations tend to be better calibrated once the first debate has taken place.
Now, I would say that both Biden and Trump are relatively uneven debaters, so maybe the first debate won’t be as predictive of the remaining debates as normal.
nrakich: Yeah, the convention bounces were minimal, if they happened at all. That’s actually an interesting question: Is there a correlation between the size of the convention bounce and the size of any debate bounces?
I’d expect that the same reason we barely saw a convention bounce this year (high polarization) also makes it less likely that we’ll see a debate bounce.
Nate, maybe you’ve studied that?
natesilver: I mean, you’d expect polls to move less in general under high polarization. And that’s basically been true so far this year. The debate wouldn’t be an exception to it. And polls show that fewer voters than in the past say that the debates will matter to their vote this year.
nrakich: Yeah, Biden’s lead in our national polling average has been between 6.6 points and 9.6 points since early June. It’s been a remarkably steady race.
sarah: So, let’s shift gear to the topics — six in total — ranging from their respective track records to the integrity of the election. Tonight really will cover a wide range of issues, and I’m personally a little curious to see how much overlap there is with the other two debates (I’d imagine quite a bit).
But of the issues tonight’s moderator Chris Wallace and the debate commission picked, which do you think will dominate the evening? Or if you think each will be given truly equal time, which does Biden have the upper hand on? And which does Trump have the upper hand on?
For reference the issues are:
The Trump and Biden Records
The Supreme Court
COVID-19
The Economy
Race and Violence in Our Cities
The Integrity of the Election
nrakich: Well, Biden should have a clear advantage in the COVID-19 and race and violence in our cities segments. Polls have consistently shown that voters trust Biden more than Trump to handle those issues.
By a smaller margin, though, polls also show that voters trust Biden over Trump to pick Supreme Court justices, and of course Trump’s decision to fill Ruth Bader Ginsburg’s seat now rather than wait until after the election is unpopular. But that segment may play out more along traditional partisan lines, which relatively speaking is good for Trump.
natesilver: I’d also say Biden as a clear advantage on the integrity of the election segment and that’s a place where Trump could get himself in a lot of trouble.
sarah: Yeah … part of me still can’t believe we wrote this article about what might happen if Trump won’t leave office quietly, but 2020: Where … anything is possible?
nrakich: Nate, do you mean like if Trump gets caught saying he won’t respect the election results again?
natesilver: Yeah. I don’t imagine that’s a very popular position, although casting doubt on the integrity of the election can also lower turnout.
nrakich: Yeah, and a debate is a more combative setting where Biden can really go after Trump if he makes a comment like that again — unlike the White House briefing room, an environment that is fairly tightly controlled by the administration.
perry: Biden’s vote in support of the Iraq War. The 1994 crime bill. He sponsored bills to slow down school integration. He voted for NAFTA. He didn’t handle the Anita Hill-Clarence Thomas hearings well. Do these things matter? I have no idea. But sharp questions about this pre-VP record seemed to annoy him during the Democratic primary and are a potential weak point now. I would expect Chris Wallace and Trump in particular to press him on the idea that he supported too much incarceration of Black men.
nrakich: Yeah, Perry, there was a lot of that at the Republican National Convention. On the surface it appeared aimed at winning over Black voters, but really it may have been more about winning over white voters who are concerned that Trump is racist. In the debates, it could maybe be an attempt to depress Black turnout.
sarah: Do you think one possible approach for tonight will be Trump trying to paint Biden as too far to the left?
natesilver: I think the debate is a hard moment to paint Biden as being some big leftist. He’s an old white guy who comes across as pretty affable. Better to make that argument in ads where you aren’t featuring Biden himself as much and can argue he’s some sort of Trojan horse.
sarah: What about how Biden will try to paint Trump?
Much of his campaign has been about winning back the soul of America, and Americans are really unhappy.
An AP-NORC poll from this summer also found 8 in 10 Americans say the country is heading in the wrong direction. That’s the highest it’s been since Trump took office.
perry: I think Biden will lean into the decency/character stuff, but I also think The New York Times’s reporting on Trump’s tax returns and Trump’s pick of Amy Coney Barrett for the Supreme Court allow Biden to talk about policy — namely, that Biden will raise taxes on the super-rich and that Trump is trying to get the Affordable Care Act rolled back or Roe v. Wade overturned with Barrett on the court.
nrakich: Yeah, I actually think the debate will be a big indicator of how big of a role the tax returns story plays. If Biden really decides to go after Trump on it, it amplifies the story. If not, the news cycle turns over to whatever topic dominates the debate.
sarah: OK, knowing who “won” or “lost” a debate is difficult to answer. Clinton, for instance, got a lot of positive press coverage for how she handled herself in the debates in 2016, and Trump … won the election. So what if anything are you doing to “update your priors” going into the debate tonight?
natesilver: I think Clinton won the 2016 debates. She moved up in the polls after the debates. But debate bounces can be temporary.
But yeah, how much does the tax returns stuff stick? What about the election integrity segment? Does Biden make some big verbal gaffes or seem “out of it”? Those are all a bit obvious, I suppose, but they’re the things I’ll be most interested to watch.
nrakich: Exactly. I’ll just be reminding myself not to overreact to how the polls change after tonight. Mitt Romney also won the first debate in 2012, remember? But that momentum (our favorite word!) evaporated too.
perry: With so much of the electorate already clear on whom they will support, I think the key thing to watch for is: “What will move undecided voters?” I define that as people who are either soft Biden or Trump supporters, backing a third-party candidate or undecided. And those people aren’t likely to tune into a debate but will see whatever two to three moments get replayed on Facebook, shared on social media, etc.
So I think policy disputes aren’t likely to become big fodder. The most memorable thing from the debates four years ago was in the final debate when Trump got too physically close to Clinton — and this was after the “Access Hollywood” tape had come out.
Does anyone do anything in the debate that becomes a defining moment until the Oct. 7 VP debate?
nrakich: Yeah, to be honest, I remember Ken Bone more than anything Trump or Clinton did in those debates.
perry: People’s views on Trump are so well-defined, I suspect even among undecided voters. It will take something big to shift those.


fivethirthyeight--2020-09-29--Welcome To Baseball Bracket Madness

Welcome To Baseball Bracket Madness

We start with baseball .
After a moment of sympathy for the rotten weekend Philadelphia sports fans have just endured , we discuss the format changes for the MLB postseason .
We ’ re all happy baseball made it to the playoffs .
Neil and Geoff like the change to a more bracket-friendly approach , with all 16 playoff teams taking part in a best-of-three wild-card series , and would enjoy this structure in future years that are hopefully less disruptive than 2020 .
However , Sara thinks that , in the long term , this goes against some of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ In terms of this year , the Los Angeles Dodgers are overwhelmingly favored to win the World Series , but teams with especially deep benches could mount an upset or three .
The lack of rest days changes how teams are going to need to think about their pitching , which shouldn ’ t be as much of a problem for Cleveland or Oakland as it will be for Houston or Toronto .
By virtue of having picked the Dodgers , Geoff is also overwhelmingly favored to win Hot Takedown ’ s World @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to the NBA to preview the Finals between the Miami Heat and the Los Angeles Lakers .
Although the media focus has been on the interpersonal drama of LeBron James confronting Pat Riley ( and vice versa ) , the team thinks that what ’ s really interesting about this matchup is the clash of two very different team-building philosophies .
The Lakers feature a traditional superstar duo in LeBron and Anthony Davis , while the Heat have assembled a deep ensemble to support Jimmy Butler .
It ’ s an approach that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the league — cultivating young talent prevents some of the crushing lows of tanking and trying to get lucky in free agency or the draft .
The Heat aren ’ t going to completely shut down LeBron and Davis , but they have a host of options to try and slow them down just enough .
Two out of our three hosts ( Sara and Neil ) think the Lakers will win in the end — despite our anti-Lakers model — but these Finals look very fun no matter who comes out on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Hole , we get geographical and talk about this most Southern of Stanley Cups won by the Tampa Bay Lightning over the Dallas Stars .
On the ice , Southern and Western expansion teams have done quite well , even if their fan bases remain relatively small compared with the lucrative ( but recently light on trophies ) contingent in the Great White North .
The hosts all have slightly different feelings on how beneficial a hockey final between teams at or below the 33rd parallel really is , but they all agree @ @ @ @ @ @ @ building a team that ’ s consistently dangerous — and exciting to watch .
What we ’ re looking at this week : • What to watch for in the wildest MLB playoffs ever .
• MLB starting pitchers will have to do with less rest this postseason .
• The Tampa Bay Lightning finally deliver on their Stanley Cup potential .

We start with baseball. After a moment of sympathy for the rotten weekend Philadelphia sports fans have just endured, we discuss the format changes for the MLB postseason. We’re all happy baseball made it to the playoffs. Neil and Geoff like the change to a more bracket-friendly approach, with all 16 playoff teams taking part in a best-of-three wild-card series, and would enjoy this structure in future years that are hopefully less disruptive than 2020. However, Sara thinks that, in the long term, this goes against some of what makes the MLB playoffs special. In terms of this year, the Los Angeles Dodgers are overwhelmingly favored to win the World Series, but teams with especially deep benches could mount an upset or three. The lack of rest days changes how teams are going to need to think about their pitching, which shouldn’t be as much of a problem for Cleveland or Oakland as it will be for Houston or Toronto. By virtue of having picked the Dodgers, Geoff is also overwhelmingly favored to win Hot Takedown’s World Series draft.
Next, we return to the NBA to preview the Finals between the Miami Heat and the Los Angeles Lakers. Although the media focus has been on the interpersonal drama of LeBron James confronting Pat Riley (and vice versa), the team thinks that what’s really interesting about this matchup is the clash of two very different team-building philosophies. The Lakers feature a traditional superstar duo in LeBron and Anthony Davis, while the Heat have assembled a deep ensemble to support Jimmy Butler. It’s an approach that seems more accessible to more teams throughout the league — cultivating young talent prevents some of the crushing lows of tanking and trying to get lucky in free agency or the draft. The Heat aren’t going to completely shut down LeBron and Davis, but they have a host of options to try and slow them down just enough. Two out of our three hosts (Sara and Neil) think the Lakers will win in the end — despite our anti-Lakers model — but these Finals look very fun no matter who comes out on top.
Finally, in the Rabbit Hole, we get geographical and talk about this most Southern of Stanley Cups won by the Tampa Bay Lightning over the Dallas Stars. On the ice, Southern and Western expansion teams have done quite well, even if their fan bases remain relatively small compared with the lucrative (but recently light on trophies) contingent in the Great White North. The hosts all have slightly different feelings on how beneficial a hockey final between teams at or below the 33rd parallel really is, but they all agree that Tampa has done a fantastic job building a team that’s consistently dangerous — and exciting to watch.
What we’re looking at this week:


fivethirthyeight--2020-09-29--What To Watch For During The First Presidential Debate

The politics crew chat about what they ’ ll be watching for in the first debate between President Trump and @ @ @ @ @ The gang also looks at new polling conducted by FiveThirtyEight and Ipsos in advance of @ @ @ @ @ , the team addresses the age-old question : Do debates actually matter ?

The politics crew chat about what they’ll be watching for in the first debate between President Trump and Democratic nominee Joe Biden. The gang also looks at new polling conducted by FiveThirtyEight and Ipsos in advance of the big night. Plus, the team addresses the age-old question: Do debates actually matter?


fivethirthyeight--2020-09-29--2020 Presidential Debate, Trump vs. Biden: Live Updates And Analysis

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fivethirthyeight--2020-09-29--Jasmine Thomas Sets The Pace For The Sun … And Their Opponents

Heading into the 2016 WNBA draft , newly installed Sun head coach Curt Miller , working with then-GM Chris Sienko , had a decision to make .
They had targeted a pair of players , Rachel Banham and Morgan Tuck , with their picks at Nos .
3 and 4 .
But sitting there at No .
6 was a big from George Washington they coveted , Jonquel Jones .
To get that pick from Los Angeles would cost a significant return : The Sparks ’ ask was young guard Chelsea Gray , who has gone on to win a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in Los Angeles .
On Monday , ahead of Tuesday ’ s Game 5 of the WNBA semifinals against the Las Vegas Aces , Miller said the decision came down to a simple question about who would fill Gray ’ s shoes .
“ That conversation all revolved around : Could Jasmine Thomas lead a team to a WNBA title ?
” The answer remains technically unresolved — Thomas and the Sun fell a game short last year , losing in Game 5 of the WNBA Finals to the Washington Mystics .
But @ @ @ @ @ @ @ who turns 31 on Wednesday , is capable .
From 2017-20 , Thomas has started 154 of a possible 158 regular-season games and every playoff game , over four seasons that ended with postseason play for the Sun .
Indeed , a significant and underappreciated amount of the success the Sun have enjoyed in the last few seasons , regularly advancing to and then in the WNBA playoffs , comes from the varied , steady work Thomas has provided her team after Miller inherited her , then built around her .
“ A @ @ @ @ @ @ @ my tenure , before ever coaching her for a second , was the belief that Jasmine Thomas could blossom into someone that you could play in WNBA championship games with , ” Miller said .
The correct call is obvious in retrospect , but it wasn ’ t clear from Thomas ’ s career numbers at that time .
After the Seattle Storm selected her with the 12th pick in the 2011 draft , they traded her to Washington in a three-team deal for Katie Smith .
Thomas had played two years in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in Connecticut under Miller ’ s predecessor , Anne Donovan , never shooting more than 38 percent in any of those seasons .
Her defense and intelligence could only carry her so far .
In 2016 , she shot 40.8 percent from the field , and by 2017 , she ’ d turned 3-point shooting into a dangerous skill — hitting 40.3 percent of her shots from deep after four years of sinking less than 30 percent .
Those 2017 Suns barreled into the playoffs with a 21-13 mark , while Thomas was @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , that ’ s been her only All-Star honor during the Sun ’ s four straight playoff seasons , even as she continues her elite playing level .
But Miller and the Sun understand just how important she is to them .
“ First and foremost , we feed off of her energy , ” Miller said of Thomas .
“ Certainly , you take what the defense gives , and she understands that .
But she ’ s got to control our offensive tempo.
” To watch Thomas operate is like seeing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , knowing when to push forward , when to hold back .
She sets the pace not only for her team but for the Sun ’ s opponents .
The Aces , for instance , pushed the ball all season , leading the WNBA in pace at 99.08 ; Connecticut was ninth at 95.81 .
However , Las Vegas ’ pace is down to 94.5 in this series with the Sun .
What makes Thomas so vital to the team ?
“ Her ability to remain calm and poised when you get into @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ” fellow Sun guard Essence Carson said .
“ … When you have things on the line like a championship , you have things that tend to raise the tension level .
And she ’ s done a good job of remaining poised and calm through it all.
” Thomas also raises her game , as a matter of pure production , when the playoffs arrive .
She averaged 11.1 points and 5.1 assists per game in the 2019 regular season on 39.2 percent shooting from the field but lifted those totals to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the playoffs .
The same phenomenon has held this year , with Thomas ’ s regular-season marks at 10.2 points and 4.0 assists on 40.4 percent shooting from the field .
Thomas in the 2020 playoffs is at 15.7 points and 4.7 assists per game on 48.7 percent shooting from the field .
And she ’ s doing it all through plantar fasciitis .
Even in this way , she is overshadowed , as teammate Alyssa Thomas continues to play at an elite level despite a dislocated shoulder and two torn labrums .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ not lost on her teammates .
Brionna Jones — who in an expanded role this season has taken a dramatic leap forward in efficiency , shooting 60.5 percent from the field compared to 46.7 in 2019 — knows who is getting her the ball where she needs it .
“ We have that connection , ” Jones said of Thomas .
“ She can find me out of the rolls , out of the pops .
And then I know she ’ s going to knock down shots .
That creates more space @ @ @ @ @ @ @ about how steady Thomas ’ s greatness is : Brionna Jones is an utterly different kind of primary center than Jonquel Jones was for the Sun in 2019 — Bri Jones is a rim-oriented finisher , Jonquel Jones a wanderer who gets plenty of her points from beyond the three-point arc .
What remains constant is that the Sun are far better when Thomas is on the floor with them or anyone else .
Connecticut ’ s net rating with Thomas was 7.8 last season , with only Jonquel Jones and Shekinna Stricklen @ @ @ @ @ @ @ their minutes coming with Thomas .
In 2020 , among the regulars , Thomas led the team in net rating , at 7.0 .
Whether Connecticut wins the WNBA title this season or not , Miller has his answer .
“ When Jasz plays well , we ’ re tough to beat , ” Miller said .
“ She doesn ’ t get some of the accolades our other players [ have ] the last two years .
But we wouldn ’ t be in the semifinals , Game 5 , and we @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Finals series Game 5 [ last year ] without Jasmine Thomas .
”

Heading into the 2016 WNBA draft, newly installed Sun head coach Curt Miller, working with then-GM Chris Sienko, had a decision to make.
They had targeted a pair of players, Rachel Banham and Morgan Tuck, with their picks at Nos. 3 and 4. But sitting there at No. 6 was a big from George Washington they coveted, Jonquel Jones. To get that pick from Los Angeles would cost a significant return: The Sparks’ ask was young guard Chelsea Gray, who has gone on to win a championship and play at a top level in Los Angeles.
On Monday, ahead of Tuesday’s Game 5 of the WNBA semifinals against the Las Vegas Aces, Miller said the decision came down to a simple question about who would fill Gray’s shoes. “That conversation all revolved around: Could Jasmine Thomas lead a team to a WNBA title?”
The answer remains technically unresolved — Thomas and the Sun fell a game short last year, losing in Game 5 of the WNBA Finals to the Washington Mystics. But few wonder whether the point guard, who turns 31 on Wednesday, is capable. From 2017-20, Thomas has started 154 of a possible 158 regular-season games and every playoff game, over four seasons that ended with postseason play for the Sun. Indeed, a significant and underappreciated amount of the success the Sun have enjoyed in the last few seasons, regularly advancing to and then in the WNBA playoffs, comes from the varied, steady work Thomas has provided her team after Miller inherited her, then built around her.
“A huge piece of that, early in my tenure, before ever coaching her for a second, was the belief that Jasmine Thomas could blossom into someone that you could play in WNBA championship games with,” Miller said.
The correct call is obvious in retrospect, but it wasn’t clear from Thomas’s career numbers at that time. After the Seattle Storm selected her with the 12th pick in the 2011 draft, they traded her to Washington in a three-team deal for Katie Smith. Thomas had played two years in D.C., two in Atlanta and 2015 in Connecticut under Miller’s predecessor, Anne Donovan, never shooting more than 38 percent in any of those seasons. Her defense and intelligence could only carry her so far.
In 2016, she shot 40.8 percent from the field, and by 2017, she’d turned 3-point shooting into a dangerous skill — hitting 40.3 percent of her shots from deep after four years of sinking less than 30 percent. Those 2017 Suns barreled into the playoffs with a 21-13 mark, while Thomas was named an All-Star.
Notably, though, that’s been her only All-Star honor during the Sun’s four straight playoff seasons, even as she continues her elite playing level. But Miller and the Sun understand just how important she is to them.
“First and foremost, we feed off of her energy,” Miller said of Thomas. “Certainly, you take what the defense gives, and she understands that. But she’s got to control our offensive tempo.”
To watch Thomas operate is like seeing a skilled driver handle a precision automobile, knowing when to push forward, when to hold back. She sets the pace not only for her team but for the Sun’s opponents. The Aces, for instance, pushed the ball all season, leading the WNBA in pace at 99.08; Connecticut was ninth at 95.81. However, Las Vegas’ pace is down to 94.5 in this series with the Sun.
What makes Thomas so vital to the team? “Her ability to remain calm and poised when you get into these later rounds of the playoffs,” fellow Sun guard Essence Carson said. “… When you have things on the line like a championship, you have things that tend to raise the tension level. And she’s done a good job of remaining poised and calm through it all.”
Thomas also raises her game, as a matter of pure production, when the playoffs arrive. She averaged 11.1 points and 5.1 assists per game in the 2019 regular season on 39.2 percent shooting from the field but lifted those totals to 12.8, 5.6 and 43.5 percent in the playoffs. The same phenomenon has held this year, with Thomas’s regular-season marks at 10.2 points and 4.0 assists on 40.4 percent shooting from the field. Thomas in the 2020 playoffs is at 15.7 points and 4.7 assists per game on 48.7 percent shooting from the field.
And she’s doing it all through plantar fasciitis. Even in this way, she is overshadowed, as teammate Alyssa Thomas continues to play at an elite level despite a dislocated shoulder and two torn labrums.
But Jasmine Thomas’s greatness is not lost on her teammates. Brionna Jones — who in an expanded role this season has taken a dramatic leap forward in efficiency, shooting 60.5 percent from the field compared to 46.7 in 2019 — knows who is getting her the ball where she needs it.
“We have that connection,” Jones said of Thomas. “She can find me out of the rolls, out of the pops. And then I know she’s going to knock down shots. That creates more space for me.”
Another way to think about how steady Thomas’s greatness is: Brionna Jones is an utterly different kind of primary center than Jonquel Jones was for the Sun in 2019 — Bri Jones is a rim-oriented finisher, Jonquel Jones a wanderer who gets plenty of her points from beyond the three-point arc.
What remains constant is that the Sun are far better when Thomas is on the floor with them or anyone else. Connecticut’s net rating with Thomas was 7.8 last season, with only Jonquel Jones and Shekinna Stricklen ahead of her, and most of their minutes coming with Thomas. In 2020, among the regulars, Thomas led the team in net rating, at 7.0.
Whether Connecticut wins the WNBA title this season or not, Miller has his answer.
“When Jasz plays well, we’re tough to beat,” Miller said. “She doesn’t get some of the accolades our other players [have] the last two years. But we wouldn’t be in the semifinals, Game 5, and we wouldn’t have been in that Finals series Game 5 [last year] without Jasmine Thomas.”