fivethirthyeight--2020-11-12--Which NFL Teams Have Been The Luckiest — And The Unluckiest — This Season?

Halfway through the 2020 NFL season , we have a decent idea about who the best and worst teams are — even if most of this year ’ s contenders have flaws that could keep them from reaching their full potential in the playoffs .
But not everything is always what it seems in a half-season of football .
Some of this year ’ s teams are winning a lot more ( or less ) than their underlying numbers say they should , which could give us clues about what the rest of the season may hold .
One way @ @ @ @ @ @ @ been is to compare its record to what we would predict based on its points scored and allowed — also known as the Pythagorean expectation .
Some teams , like this year ’ s Ravens , have won exactly as many games as we would expect from their point differential .
But when a team wins more than the formula says it “ should have , ” that usually means it won an unusual number of toss-up games , which may not be sustainable going forward .
[ Related : Did The Saints @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Who The Real Contenders Are ? ]
So far in 2020 , we ’ ve seen a few notable outliers in terms of team wins and losses being out of sync with Pythagorean records .
On the high side , the Pittsburgh Steelers are a perfect 8-0 despite a .710 Pythagorean mark — which would translate to only 5.7 wins instead of eight .
Among all 31 teams to have started 8-0 since 1960 , the 2020 Steelers have the fourth-worst Pythagorean record , ahead of only the 2006 Indianapolis Colts , 2015 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ : Obviously , you ’ d rather be one of the worst 8-0 teams than one of the best , say , 4-4 teams .
On a certain level , it doesn ’ t matter how you get those eight wins , just that you got them .
But that 2.3-win gap between Pittsburgh ’ s actual and expected wins is the seventh-biggest gap through eight games for any team since 1960 .
And 2020 ’ s second-luckiest team by Pythagorean record is only fractionally behind : The Buffalo Bills rank ninth on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ with a gap of 2.3 wins between their actual 7-2 record and expected 4.7-win mark .
Just because the Steelers and Bills are winning more than their scoring margins would predict doesn ’ t mean that they ’ re destined to collapse in the second half of the season .
Indeed , our forecast thinks both teams are more than 90 percent likely to make the playoffs , ranking both among the top eight Super Bowl contenders by championship probability .
( The Bills ’ return to glory also remains one of the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ it ’ s worth watching them for signs of regression after they won more than their share of close games in the first half of the schedule .
Conversely , we might also expect better things going forward from the New York Jets , Atlanta Falcons , Jacksonville Jaguars and Los Angeles Chargers .
Yes , the Falcons and Chargers have developed an almost mythical ability to lose winnable games in their closing moments .
According to the Pythagorean expectation , though , both Atlanta and L.A. “ should ” be around .500 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ pace .
Neither the Chargers nor the Falcons are quite as historic an outlier as the Steelers or Bills are at the other end of the spectrum .
Through nine games , Atlanta has the 131st-largest shortfall between actual and predicted record since 1960 , and Los Angeles ranks 45th through eight .
There are also limits to how much we can feel like these teams have been wronged by the football gods .
The Chargers and Falcons each rank no higher than 20th leaguewide in schedule-adjusted expected points added ( EPA ) @ @ @ @ @ @ @ not like their mediocre records are hiding great teams underneath .
But individually speaking , Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert is rising in the ranks of the historically unlucky , particularly after throwing what appeared to be a game-winning touchdown pass against the Raiders on Sunday — only to have it overturned on replay after time had expired .
Just seven starts into his NFL career , Herbert is off to a pretty incredible rookie season , with a passer rating of 104.7 ( ninth-best in the league ) and more than 300 passing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ QB Elo metric , Herbert is averaging a performance 85 Elo points better than league average across his seven starts , which ranks sixth in the NFL .
Normally , we would associate that level of QB play with team success .
And if we run a logistic regression between QB Elo over average and whether the QB ’ s team won a given game ( holding other factors , such as the opposing QB ’ s performance , constant ) — essentially creating an updated , Elo-based version of what I used @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ” — we would expect Herbert to have 4.8 wins as a starter in his young career .
Instead , at 1-6 , Herbert has the biggest shortfall ( -3.8 wins ) of any QB in football this season according to the Rivers Index 2.0 , easily topping Houston ’ s Deshaun Watson ( -2.8 wins ) for the No .
1 spot .
In fact , only five QBs since 1960 have produced a bigger Rivers Index shortfall over their team ’ s first eight games of a season : This franchise @ @ @ @ @ @ @ more .
Secret Base ’ s Jon Bois and Alex Rubenstein did a great deep dive into the 2010 Chargers , who somehow missed the playoffs despite leading the league in both total yards gained and fewest yards allowed .
( Their special teams unit was historically horrible , which helps explain the disconnect . )
This Chargers team also has a notably bad special-teams corps , so in that sense history is repeating itself , and the rest has come down to back-breaking late penalties and other painful items on the “ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ list .
[ Related : The Bills Haven ’ t Been AFC East Champs In Josh Allen ’ s Lifetime .
Odds Are , That Changes This Year . ]
Just like the Steelers and Bills are under the microscope for backsliding down the stretch , we should keep an eye on the Chargers and Falcons to eventually start winning those toss-up contests late in the season .
Or , who knows ?
Maybe they can just keep finding new ways to stay at the bottom of the Pythagorean disappointment rankings .
Looking @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s game of the week — Packers versus 49ers — didn ’ t really end up being competitive at all .
( Whoops ! )
This week ’ s top Elo game — Rams versus Seahawks — should be better , however , since both starting quarterbacks are at full strength ( and neither club is fighting a COVID-19 outbreak ) .
Both teams are in solid playoff position , though each lost in its last outing , calling into question their status as true contenders : Los Angeles was dealt a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ defense , while Seattle ’ s own D gave up 44 points at home to the Bills .
Rams QB Jared Goff will try to exploit that weakness and break out of his recent slump , though the more compelling matchup involves the Rams defense ( No .
4 in EPA ) versus Russell Wilson and the Seahawks offense ( also No .
4 in EPA ) .
Seattle is the better team according to Elo , but with L.A. at home , we see a true 50-50 toss-up .
Elo ’ s @ @ @ @ @


fivethirthyeight--2020-11-12--What Blue And Red ‘Shifts’ Looked Like In Every State

Election night 2020 was an election night like no other — and not just because the “ night ” ended up lasting four days .
This election was also unique because of how Americans voted — a record number voted early , either in person or by mail .
Because many states report absentee and Election Day ballots at different times , and absentee voters are disproportionately likely to be Democrats while Election Day voters are disproportionately likely to be Republicans , that made it tricky to follow the vote in real time .
The candidate who led a given @ @ @ @ @ @ @ always the one who eventually won it , leading many real-time observers to conclude the presidential race was closer than it actually was .
In some states like North Carolina and Ohio , that meant the initial vote totals included a disproportionate number of Biden votes relative to the final results ; in others , like Michigan and Virginia , the initial totals included a disproportionate number of Trump votes .
And in still others , Trump began to look stronger as more votes were counted on election night , but it became @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the last few mail-in ballots were counted in the ensuing days .
You can see this in the map below , which shows you where the reported vote totals stood for each candidate 90 minutes , 12 hours and 72 hours after the last polls were scheduled to close in each state .
Let ’ s take a closer look at the states where Trump gained ground as more votes were counted — a phenomenon sometimes referred to as a “ red shift.
” For example , 90 minutes after polls closed in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Biden looked competitive in these three states — he even led in North Carolina and Ohio .
But that changed as officials reported more results , and Trump wound up carrying all three states .
It wasn ’ t just battleground states where this happened either .
Deeply Republican states like Kentucky experienced this same “ red shift ” in their vote margins because of the order in which votes happened to be reported — it just didn ’ t affect who won them because they were already so Republican-leaning .
In other @ @ @ @ @ @ @ opposite direction — the appearance of an early lead for Trump was eventually erased as more votes for Biden were counted .
Sometimes this happened because the state was not allowed to process its absentee ballots before the week of the election and therefore couldn ’ t get a head start on its massive volume of absentee ballots ( see Michigan ) .
In other instances , the state only required absentee ballots to be postmarked , not received , by Election Day and was still accepting and counting ballots for a few @ @ @ @ @ @ @ And sometimes , the state was just slow to finish counting all its absentee ballots ( see Georgia ) .
Either way , this “ blue shift ” in the vote count often took several days , making it hard to see who was really ahead if you weren ’ t familiar with the ins and outs of vote-counting .
And finally , in some states , it was more of a mix .
The topline results zigged toward Republicans , then zagged toward Democrats as more votes were counted .
For example @ @ @ @ @ @ @ good for Biden , but most of the votes counted over the next several hours were for Trump , and by Wednesday morning , Trump was ahead .
However , the state spent the next several days counting absentee ballots , which were favorable for Biden .
As it turned out , there were enough absentee ballots outstanding for the Democrat to eventually take the lead at 9 a.m. on Friday morning .
And Pennsylvania was , of course , the key state that eventually handed Biden the presidency .
In sum , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ each state and when made for a roller coaster of an election week , and even produced accusations of fraud .
But there was nothing fishy going on ; no additional ballots were being cast after Election Day to influence the result .
It was just the slow wheels of democracy turning .
Indeed , given how the coronavirus pandemic threw our elections into turmoil with only eight months to prepare for the general election , it ’ s actually quite impressive that , the timing of the results notwithstanding , the election @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Where the rest of the 2020 races stand | FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast

Election night 2020 was an election night like no other — and not just because the “night” ended up lasting four days. This election was also unique because of how Americans voted — a record number voted early, either in person or by mail. Because many states report absentee and Election Day ballots at different times, and absentee voters are disproportionately likely to be Democrats while Election Day voters are disproportionately likely to be Republicans, that made it tricky to follow the vote in real time. The candidate who led a given state on Tuesday night wasn’t always the one who eventually won it, leading many real-time observers to conclude the presidential race was closer than it actually was.
How Joe Biden and Kamala Harris won a historic election | FiveThirtyEight
In some states like North Carolina and Ohio, that meant the initial vote totals included a disproportionate number of Biden votes relative to the final results; in others, like Michigan and Virginia, the initial totals included a disproportionate number of Trump votes. And in still others, Trump began to look stronger as more votes were counted on election night, but it became clear that Biden received more votes as the last few mail-in ballots were counted in the ensuing days.
You can see this in the map below, which shows you where the reported vote totals stood for each candidate 90 minutes, 12 hours and 72 hours after the last polls were scheduled to close in each state.
Let’s take a closer look at the states where Trump gained ground as more votes were counted — a phenomenon sometimes referred to as a “red shift.” For example, 90 minutes after polls closed in Iowa, North Carolina and Ohio, Biden looked competitive in these three states — he even led in North Carolina and Ohio. But that changed as officials reported more results, and Trump wound up carrying all three states. It wasn’t just battleground states where this happened either. Deeply Republican states like Kentucky experienced this same “red shift” in their vote margins because of the order in which votes happened to be reported — it just didn’t affect who won them because they were already so Republican-leaning.
In other states, the margins moved in the opposite direction — the appearance of an early lead for Trump was eventually erased as more votes for Biden were counted. Sometimes this happened because the state was not allowed to process its absentee ballots before the week of the election and therefore couldn’t get a head start on its massive volume of absentee ballots (see Michigan). In other instances, the state only required absentee ballots to be postmarked, not received, by Election Day and was still accepting and counting ballots for a few days after (see Virginia). And sometimes, the state was just slow to finish counting all its absentee ballots (see Georgia). Either way, this “blue shift” in the vote count often took several days, making it hard to see who was really ahead if you weren’t familiar with the ins and outs of vote-counting.
And finally, in some states, it was more of a mix. The topline results zigged toward Republicans, then zagged toward Democrats as more votes were counted. For example, Pennsylvania started off election night looking good for Biden, but most of the votes counted over the next several hours were for Trump, and by Wednesday morning, Trump was ahead. However, the state spent the next several days counting absentee ballots, which were favorable for Biden.
As it turned out, there were enough absentee ballots outstanding for the Democrat to eventually take the lead at 9 a.m. on Friday morning. And Pennsylvania was, of course, the key state that eventually handed Biden the presidency.
In sum, the changes in who was leading in each state and when made for a roller coaster of an election week, and even produced accusations of fraud. But there was nothing fishy going on; no additional ballots were being cast after Election Day to influence the result. It was just the slow wheels of democracy turning. Indeed, given how the coronavirus pandemic threw our elections into turmoil with only eight months to prepare for the general election, it’s actually quite impressive that, the timing of the results notwithstanding, the election largely went off without a hitch.
Where the rest of the 2020 races stand | FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast


fivethirthyeight--2020-11-16--Americans Became More Divided By Class In 2020

In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast , the crew explores the demographic and geographic trends that divided America @ @ @ @ @ discuss how President Trump ’ s refusal to concede the election will affect the nation @

In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the crew explores the demographic and geographic trends that divided America in 2020. They also discuss how President Trump’s refusal to concede the election will affect the nation.
[Related: What Trump’s Refusal To Concede Says About American Democracy]


fivethirthyeight--2020-11-16--Politics Podcast: What Divided The Electorate In 2020

The 2020 election proved that the country is still divided .
Though Democrats retained control of the House , they @ @ @ @ @ of the clear mandate they had wanted .
Meanwhile , in the past eight elections @ @ @ @ @ popular vote seven times and the fourth time in a row .
In this installment @ @ @ @ @ , the crew explores the demographic and geographic trends that split Americans and discuss how @ @ @ @ @ to concede will affect the nation .
You can listen to the episode by clicking @ @ @ @ @ in the audio player above or by downloading it in iTunes , the ESPN App @ @ @ @ @ .
If you are new to podcasts , learn how to listen .
The FiveThirtyEight @ @ @ @ @ and Thursdays .
Help new listeners discover the show by leaving us a rating and @ @ @ @ @ a comment , question or suggestion for “ good polling vs. bad polling ” ?
@ @ @ @ @ , on Twitter or in the comments .

The 2020 election proved that the country is still divided. Though Democrats retained control of the House, they lost seats, falling short of the clear mandate they had wanted. Meanwhile, in the past eight elections, Republicans have lost the popular vote seven times and the fourth time in a row. In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the crew explores the demographic and geographic trends that split Americans and discuss how President Trump’s refusal to concede will affect the nation.
You can listen to the episode by clicking the “play” button in the audio player above or by downloading it in iTunes, the ESPN App or your favorite podcast platform. If you are new to podcasts, learn how to listen.
The FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast is recorded Mondays and Thursdays. Help new listeners discover the show by leaving us a rating and review on iTunes. Have a comment, question or suggestion for “good polling vs. bad polling”? Get in touch by email, on Twitter or in the comments.


fivethirthyeight--2020-11-16--Who’s Best In The NFC West? ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Who’s Best In The NFC West? ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

sara.ziegler ( Sara Ziegler , sports editor ) : Week 10 of the NFL season wasn ’ t short on drama , starting with big injury news .
ESPN ’ s Ed Werder reports that Drew Brees of the New Orleans Saints suffered “ multiple rib fractures on both sides of his chest and a collapsed lung on the right side.
” No word yet on how long the quarterback might be out .
In less upsetting developments , we also got frightful weather in Cleveland and New England , and a Hail Mary to end all Hail Marys .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ ?
neil ( Neil Paine , senior sportswriter ) : Well if you look at this alternate angle , you can see he jumped slightly earlier than the defenders : joshua.hermsmeyer ( Josh Hermsmeyer , NFL analyst ) : It was an impossible catch , one of those rare beasts that will keep the Hail Mary play alive in coaches ’ and players ’ hearts for another dozen seasons .
Salfino ( Michael Salfino , FiveThirtyEight contributor ) : The receiver has the edge when it ’ s just a jump ball .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ a receiver back there on defense in these kinds of plays ( though no one stands out like that for the Buffalo Bills ) .
I was shocked to see that 9.7 percent of Hail Marys are completed — that struck me as a lot .
neil : “ Pass every play ” is tired .
“ Hail Mary every play ” is wired .
sara.ziegler : I ’ ve seen a few offenses where that strategy wouldn ’ t hurt tbh .
neil : Stop subtweeting the Jets — they didn ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ : That was not the team that hasn ’ t played ( yet ) this week that I was subtweeting , Neil .
joshua.hermsmeyer : It should be a big week for Justin Jefferson and/or Adam Theilen , according to my wide receiver model .
Hail Marys could help .
Fantasy players , take note .
That win for the Arizona Cardinals , coupled with the Los Angeles Rams ’ win over the Seahawks , gave us a very messy and very interesting NFC West , with three teams tied at 6-3 and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ back .
Who is going to walk away with this division ?
neil : Our model currently projects three teams winning a double-digit number of games in that division !
And none of them is the defending NFC champion .
Salfino : When in doubt , I rank by the net yards per pass play gained minus those allowed .
The NY/A model LOVES the Rams ( No .
1 in football at plus 1.8 yards per attempt , and the Kansas City Chiefs are No .
2 ) , likes the Cardinals @ @ @ @ @ @ @ HATES the Seahawks ( tied for 20th at minus 0.3 ) .
That ’ s how I see them .
Seattle is a fraud now that Russell Wilson is not playing like a man possessed .
The Rams are a true Super Bowl contender .
neil : The Rams and Seahawks are kind of mirror images of each other : Los Angeles has a bad offense ( 21st in Simple Rating System ) but a great defense ( second ) ; Seattle has a great offense ( first ) but an awful defense @ @ @ @ @ @ @ balanced ( eighth/13th ) .
joshua.hermsmeyer : The rankings by offensive expected points added ( EPA ) per play go Seahawks , Cardinals , Niners , Rams , with the Hawks and Cardinals very close at roughly 0.16 EPA per play .
I think the Cardinals have a real shot now .
So , pick which tea leaves you want to read , I guess .
Salfino : I ’ m surprised by that Rams ranking since they are piling up yards .
neil : They ’ re only tied for 18th in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ aside from this win against Seattle , the Rams have really not beaten anyone .
Their wins are against the Dallas Cowboys , Philadelphia Eagles , New York Giants , Washington Football Team and Chicago Bears .
sara.ziegler : And they still have the Jets on their schedule !
Salfino : Their win over the Cowboys has currency , IMO — Dak Prescott was still playing then .
All the teams in the division are playing the same schedule , basically .
joshua.hermsmeyer : The Jets , who almost beat the New England @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
SMH , SMH .
Salfino : The Jets did just give the Patriots a better game than the Ravens did , tbh .
joshua.hermsmeyer : Well , if Bill Belichick would stop cheating with the rain machine , things might have been different .
sara.ziegler : Would anyone even be a little surprised if Belichick could control the weather ?
Salfino : I think last night says more about the Ravens than the Patriots .
joshua.hermsmeyer : The Ravens are still the fourth-best team by Elo .
( The Jets are still @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Ravens are not winning the Super Bowl this year .
Lock it up .
sara.ziegler : And definitely not if it ’ s raining .
Salfino : Also , 96 percent doesn ’ t seem to mean what it used to .
neil : That ’ s only when the Atlanta Falcons and Los Angeles Chargers are involved .
sara.ziegler : The Patriots ’ win keeps them in the conversation , but the AFC East is another fascinating division .
Don ’ t look now , but the Miami Dolphins are just a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , you ’ ve been saying not to sleep on the Dolphins .
joshua.hermsmeyer : I felt bad to see Ryan Fitzpatrick go to the bench , but the decision to move on to Tua Tagovailoa was also vindicated .
joshua.hermsmeyer : They ’ re 3-0 since he took over , and he ’ s ranked 12th in the league in QBR over that span , just ahead of Josh Allen .
Salfino : The Dolphins did such a good job on the rebuild , and wasn ’ t even driven by the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ really .
They did it though the defense .
They are very much like the Patriots .
I think they ’ re in the scrum of teams in the AFC below the Chiefs .
And I think they are clearly better than the Bills right now — the best team in the AFC East .
neil : The Bills ’ close-game tendencies finally caught up with them .
That said , we still give Buffalo a 75 percent chance to win the division ( to Miami ’ s 19 percent ) because of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ : The Dolphins are showing everyone in the NFL how fast you can rebuild and exposing some myths about five-year plans and how everything focuses on the QB position .
I like this conversation they ’ re forcing .
neil : Brian Flores is also a good coach .
They ’ re playing strong defense , have the best special teams EPA in the league , and doing a lot of things we might attribute to a well-prepared team .
joshua.hermsmeyer : I ’ m not sure where this Dolphins defensive love is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 17th in yards per play allowed and they spent a high first on a QB .
Seems like the standard NFL formula for wins .
neil : Well , they do have the No .
1 EPA pass defense per game in the league after adjusting for strength of schedule .
Salfino : I ’ d disagree that they ’ re using the standard formula for wins because their wins have little to do with their QB now .
Tua is a game manager , which is fine ( and smart ) .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ , which no one has been able to do .
They were in control against the Chargers , who haven ’ t lost a game this year by more than 8 points .
neil : Right .
This was the rare Charger loss that couldn ’ t be chalked up to the universe hating the Chargers .
joshua.hermsmeyer : I mean , Tua has a higher QBR than Herbert and Joe Burrow over the past three weeks .
I give him more credit than being just a game manager , I guess .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ version of Tom Brady .
One day , he might be able to do more .
The Dolphins may end up being a little like the 2001 Patriots , too .
Not saying they ’ re going to win the Super Bowl , but they are getting noticeably better every week .
neil : The Pats have a down year , and suddenly the floodgates are open in the AFC East .
sara.ziegler : The floodgates were open last night , anyway .
joshua.hermsmeyer : Those were just Ravens fans ’ tears .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ Pittsburgh Steelers more seriously ?
No one seems to consider them a favorite , even though they ’ re unbeaten .
Wins are descriptive and not predictive , of course , but still .
Maybe it ’ s because the AFC has so many good teams ?
neil : They , um , improved their Pythagorean winning percentage against Cincinnati .
joshua.hermsmeyer : Yeah , they have the second-highest point margin in the league at 100 points , just behind Kansas City .
( The Jets are last at -147 ) .
neil @ @ @ @ @ @ @ gap between actual wins and expected in the league .
No team is truly of 9-0 quality , I suppose .
Salfino : Josh doesn ’ t seem to understand how little I care right now about the Jets ’ record , though I wear my fandom on my sleeve proudly .
We all had to get into this great game in some way .
neil : The scary thing about the Steelers is that Ben Roethlisberger is starting to play better these past few weeks .
joshua.hermsmeyer : Roethlisberger was making a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ performance .
Salfino : I guess Roethlisberger has been better ?
He ’ s just so fundamentally different now .
It used to be that the play didn ’ t start until someone bumped him in the pocket .
Now he gets rid of the ball quicker than anyone .
sara.ziegler : How quarterbacks change as they age is so interesting .
We ’ ve seen that this year with Brees , too , though who knows how long his ribs have been broken .
Salfino : Roethlisberger has beaten up on bad @ @ @ @ @ @ @ efficiency ( as measured by yards per attempt ) , which had been his defining trait in the past .
neil : It may have been against the Cowboys and the Cincinnati Bengals , but this is a pretty good pair of games : Getting the ball out quick helps you take zero sacks on 88 pass plays .
joshua.hermsmeyer : Can ’ t argue with that .
I wish they pressed their edges more on offense ( play-action , motion , etc . )
, but Ben can still spin it .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ mini-turnovers , so this is important .
sara.ziegler : Could the Steelers run the table ?
They still have a rematch against the Ravens and games against the Bills and Indianapolis Colts left .
Salfino : Just eyeballing it , it seems like their odds of going 16-0 are about 10 percent at best .
If they did and got the Chiefs at home , I bet they ’ d be underdogs , which would be hilarious .
neil : We give it a 14.9 percent chance in our simulations .
It helps @ @ @ @ @ @ @ remaining schedules of any team : The average Elo rating of their opponents down the stretch ( 1474 ) ranks sixth-lowest in the league .
joshua.hermsmeyer : Last week , one book had it at 19/1 , which is 5 percent .
Salfino : The big-brain books are still giving Trump better odds than that .
Salfino : Like it .
I also want Kyler Murray to be nicknamed “ Scooter.
” sara.ziegler : And we officially renamed the Hail Mary to the Hail Murray , right ?
Salfino : That ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ Fail Mary ” in that Seahawks game years ago :

sara.ziegler (Sara Ziegler, sports editor): Week 10 of the NFL season wasn’t short on drama, starting with big injury news. ESPN’s Ed Werder reports that Drew Brees of the New Orleans Saints suffered “multiple rib fractures on both sides of his chest and a collapsed lung on the right side.” No word yet on how long the quarterback might be out.
In less upsetting developments, we also got frightful weather in Cleveland and New England, and a Hail Mary to end all Hail Marys.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qC4uccZe1ok
How did DeAndre Hopkins catch that ball?
neil (Neil Paine, senior sportswriter): Well if you look at this alternate angle, you can see he jumped slightly earlier than the defenders:
sara.ziegler: 🤣
joshua.hermsmeyer (Josh Hermsmeyer, NFL analyst): It was an impossible catch, one of those rare beasts that will keep the Hail Mary play alive in coaches’ and players’ hearts for another dozen seasons.
Salfino (Michael Salfino, FiveThirtyEight contributor): The receiver has the edge when it’s just a jump ball. That’s why some teams put a receiver back there on defense in these kinds of plays (though no one stands out like that for the Buffalo Bills). I was shocked to see that 9.7 percent of Hail Marys are completed — that struck me as a lot.
neil: “Pass every play” is tired. “Hail Mary every play” is wired.
sara.ziegler: I’ve seen a few offenses where that strategy wouldn’t hurt tbh.
neil: Stop subtweeting the Jets — they didn’t even play this week …
sara.ziegler: That was not the team that hasn’t played (yet) this week that I was subtweeting, Neil.
joshua.hermsmeyer: It should be a big week for Justin Jefferson and/or Adam Theilen, according to my wide receiver model. Hail Marys could help. Fantasy players, take note.
sara.ziegler: Haha
That win for the Arizona Cardinals, coupled with the Los Angeles Rams’ win over the Seahawks, gave us a very messy and very interesting NFC West, with three teams tied at 6-3 and the San Francisco 49ers just 2.5 games back. Who is going to walk away with this division?
neil: Our model currently projects three teams winning a double-digit number of games in that division! And none of them is the defending NFC champion.
Salfino: When in doubt, I rank by the net yards per pass play gained minus those allowed. The NY/A model LOVES the Rams (No. 1 in football at plus 1.8 yards per attempt, and the Kansas City Chiefs are No. 2), likes the Cardinals (fourth-best at plus 1.0) and HATES the Seahawks (tied for 20th at minus 0.3). That’s how I see them. Seattle is a fraud now that Russell Wilson is not playing like a man possessed. The Rams are a true Super Bowl contender.
neil: The Rams and Seahawks are kind of mirror images of each other: Los Angeles has a bad offense (21st in Simple Rating System) but a great defense (second); Seattle has a great offense (first) but an awful defense (30th). Arizona is just balanced (eighth/13th).
joshua.hermsmeyer: The rankings by offensive expected points added (EPA) per play go Seahawks, Cardinals, Niners, Rams, with the Hawks and Cardinals very close at roughly 0.16 EPA per play. I think the Cardinals have a real shot now.
So, pick which tea leaves you want to read, I guess.
Salfino: I’m surprised by that Rams ranking since they are piling up yards.
neil: They’re only tied for 18th in points per game.
sara.ziegler: And aside from this win against Seattle, the Rams have really not beaten anyone. Their wins are against the Dallas Cowboys, Philadelphia Eagles, New York Giants, Washington Football Team and Chicago Bears.
neil: The NFC East quadruple!
sara.ziegler: And they still have the Jets on their schedule!
Salfino: Their win over the Cowboys has currency, IMO — Dak Prescott was still playing then. All the teams in the division are playing the same schedule, basically.
joshua.hermsmeyer: The Jets, who almost beat the New England Patriots who just beat the Baltimore Ravens. SMH, SMH.
sara.ziegler: It’s a league of parity, I’m told.
Salfino: The Jets did just give the Patriots a better game than the Ravens did, tbh.
joshua.hermsmeyer: Well, if Bill Belichick would stop cheating with the rain machine, things might have been different.
sara.ziegler: Would anyone even be a little surprised if Belichick could control the weather?
Salfino: I think last night says more about the Ravens than the Patriots.
joshua.hermsmeyer: The Ravens are still the fourth-best team by Elo. (The Jets are still the worst.)
Salfino: The Ravens are not winning the Super Bowl this year. Lock it up.
neil: There’s a 96 percent chance you’re right, Mike!
sara.ziegler: And definitely not if it’s raining.
neil: Ooof. Rough night for Matt Skura snapping the ball.
Salfino: Also, 96 percent doesn’t seem to mean what it used to.
neil: That’s only when the Atlanta Falcons and Los Angeles Chargers are involved.
sara.ziegler: The Patriots’ win keeps them in the conversation, but the AFC East is another fascinating division. Don’t look now, but the Miami Dolphins are just a game out of first place. Neil, you’ve been saying not to sleep on the Dolphins.
neil: I feel vindicated!
joshua.hermsmeyer: I felt bad to see Ryan Fitzpatrick go to the bench, but the decision to move on to Tua Tagovailoa was also vindicated.
neil: He outplayed Justin Herbert! Pretty impressive.
joshua.hermsmeyer: They’re 3-0 since he took over, and he’s ranked 12th in the league in QBR over that span, just ahead of Josh Allen.
Salfino: The Dolphins did such a good job on the rebuild, and wasn’t even driven by the quarterback — or even the offense, really. They did it though the defense. They are very much like the Patriots. I think they’re in the scrum of teams in the AFC below the Chiefs. And I think they are clearly better than the Bills right now — the best team in the AFC East.
neil: The Bills’ close-game tendencies finally caught up with them.
That said, we still give Buffalo a 75 percent chance to win the division (to Miami’s 19 percent) because of the one-game cushion and tiebreakers.
Salfino: The Dolphins are showing everyone in the NFL how fast you can rebuild and exposing some myths about five-year plans and how everything focuses on the QB position. I like this conversation they’re forcing.
neil: Brian Flores is also a good coach. They’re playing strong defense, have the best special teams EPA in the league, and doing a lot of things we might attribute to a well-prepared team.
joshua.hermsmeyer: I’m not sure where this Dolphins defensive love is coming from. They’re ranked 17th in yards per play allowed and they spent a high first on a QB. Seems like the standard NFL formula for wins.
neil: Well, they do have the No. 1 EPA pass defense per game in the league after adjusting for strength of schedule.
Salfino: I’d disagree that they’re using the standard formula for wins because their wins have little to do with their QB now. Tua is a game manager, which is fine (and smart).
And they just totally shut down Herbert, which no one has been able to do. They were in control against the Chargers, who haven’t lost a game this year by more than 8 points.
neil: Right. This was the rare Charger loss that couldn’t be chalked up to the universe hating the Chargers.
sara.ziegler: LOL
joshua.hermsmeyer: I mean, Tua has a higher QBR than Herbert and Joe Burrow over the past three weeks. I give him more credit than being just a game manager, I guess.
neil: He’s certainly improving very quickly.
Salfino: Tua feels like the early version of Tom Brady. One day, he might be able to do more. The Dolphins may end up being a little like the 2001 Patriots, too. Not saying they’re going to win the Super Bowl, but they are getting noticeably better every week.
sara.ziegler: It’s fun to see!
neil: The Pats have a down year, and suddenly the floodgates are open in the AFC East.
sara.ziegler: The floodgates were open last night, anyway.
joshua.hermsmeyer: Those were just Ravens fans’ tears.
neil: LOL
Salfino: Should we be taking the Pittsburgh Steelers more seriously? No one seems to consider them a favorite, even though they’re unbeaten. Wins are descriptive and not predictive, of course, but still.
Maybe it’s because the AFC has so many good teams?
neil: They, um, improved their Pythagorean winning percentage against Cincinnati.
joshua.hermsmeyer: Yeah, they have the second-highest point margin in the league at 100 points, just behind Kansas City. (The Jets are last at -147).
neil: And yet still have the biggest gap between actual wins and expected in the league. No team is truly of 9-0 quality, I suppose.
(Thanks for that Jets update, LOL.)
Salfino: BREAKING NEWS: The Jets are bad.
joshua.hermsmeyer: The people need context, Mike!
Salfino: Josh doesn’t seem to understand how little I care right now about the Jets’ record, though I wear my fandom on my sleeve proudly. We all had to get into this great game in some way.
neil: The scary thing about the Steelers is that Ben Roethlisberger is starting to play better these past few weeks.
joshua.hermsmeyer: Roethlisberger was making a play to never practice again with that performance.
Salfino: I guess Roethlisberger has been better? He’s just so fundamentally different now. It used to be that the play didn’t start until someone bumped him in the pocket. Now he gets rid of the ball quicker than anyone.
sara.ziegler: How quarterbacks change as they age is so interesting. We’ve seen that this year with Brees, too, though who knows how long his ribs have been broken.
Salfino: Roethlisberger has beaten up on bad defenses and is still pretty mediocre in efficiency (as measured by yards per attempt), which had been his defining trait in the past.
neil: It may have been against the Cowboys and the Cincinnati Bengals, but this is a pretty good pair of games:
Getting the ball out quick helps you take zero sacks on 88 pass plays.
joshua.hermsmeyer: Can’t argue with that. I wish they pressed their edges more on offense (play-action, motion, etc.), but Ben can still spin it.
Salfino: And sacks can be considered mini-turnovers, so this is important.
sara.ziegler: Could the Steelers run the table? They still have a rematch against the Ravens and games against the Bills and Indianapolis Colts left.
Salfino: Just eyeballing it, it seems like their odds of going 16-0 are about 10 percent at best. If they did and got the Chiefs at home, I bet they’d be underdogs, which would be hilarious.
(Note that the 1972 Dolphins were 1-point favorites in the Super Bowl against Washington, which was just OK.)
neil: We give it a 14.9 percent chance in our simulations. It helps that Pittsburgh has one of the easiest remaining schedules of any team: The average Elo rating of their opponents down the stretch (1474) ranks sixth-lowest in the league.
joshua.hermsmeyer: Last week, one book had it at 19/1, which is 5 percent.
Salfino: The big-brain books are still giving Trump better odds than that.
neil: Big Brain Roethlisberger.
Salfino: Like it. I also want Kyler Murray to be nicknamed “Scooter.”
sara.ziegler: And we officially renamed the Hail Mary to the Hail Murray, right?
Salfino: That’s awesome. It’s like the “Fail Mary” in that Seahawks game years ago:
Check out our latest NFL predictions.


fivethirthyeight--2020-11-16--Kim Ng’s Hiring Could Be The Start Of Something Special In Miami

Long-overdue baseball history was made late last week when the Miami Marlins announced they had hired Kim Ng as general manager .
Ng is MLB ’ s first female GM , as well as the sport ’ s first Asian American GM , and she is also the first woman to serve as general manager in any major North American men ’ s league .
In breaking those barriers , Ng will undoubtedly influence a younger generation of girls to aim for jobs in the traditionally male-dominated world of baseball .
In the interim , she ’ ll also step @ @ @ @ @ @ @ at the helm of what was baseball ’ s most surprising team in 2020 .
Ng ’ s ascendance to the GM chair has been a long time coming .
In fact , she might be one of the most qualified first-time GMs ever , based on her wealth of previous experience .
After graduating from the University of Chicago in 1990 , Ng began her MLB path as an intern with the Chicago White Sox , quickly becoming a full-time analyst with the club and then its assistant director of baseball operations @ @ @ @ @ @ @ person — and first woman — to present an arbitration case , ultimately winning Chicago its bid over pitcher Alex Fernandez ’ s salary .
In 1998 , Ng was named assistant GM of the New York Yankees under Brian Cashman , at the time becoming ( at age 29 ) the youngest person in MLB to hold that post .
She would go on to win three championships with the Yankees , part of a dynasty that also included current Marlins CEO Derek Jeter at shortstop .
Ng spent the next decade @ @ @ @ @ @ @ president and assistant GM , and she had been with MLB ’ s league office as its senior vice president of baseball operations since 2011 .
Ng was seemingly on the short list for every GM opening in the past decade but was repeatedly passed over .
According to ESPN ’ s Stats & Information Group , Ng previously interviewed for GM jobs with the Dodgers , Los Angeles Angels , San Diego Padres ( twice ) and Seattle Mariners .
Now that she is finally getting her chance with the Marlins , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is exceptionally well-prepared to succeed — for the same reason that members of other historically underrepresented groups tend to shine once they are finally given a fair opportunity .
Think of an earlier baseball trailblazer , Jackie Robinson , who instantly played like an MVP after breaking the color barrier — representing the tip of an iceberg of great Black players who had been unjustly denied entry to MLB .
Or how Black NFL quarterbacks still tend to be better than their white counterparts , decades after Doug Williams and Warren Moon : @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Black starting QB this season carried an Elo rating 24 percent better than the average white QB .
This is simply a selection effect at work : People who tear down barriers of prejudice have to be that much better in order to reach the same level of status as those who don ’ t face discrimination .
So it would figure that Ng has more than enough ability and knowledge to be an outstanding GM .
And the team she inherits contains a lot of interesting possibilities .
Despite an early season @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of nowhere last season to make the playoffs — and even swept a postseason series !
— solidifying themselves as one of the big winners of 2020 pandemic-ball : That said , they probably played above their heads to get there .
According to our friend the Pythagorean expectation — which predicts a team ’ s record based on its runs scored and allowed — Miami “ should have ” gone 26-34 instead of 31-29 , which would have left it outside the postseason picture entirely .
( That five-win difference between Miami @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the largest gap in baseball . )
Along the way , the team found an unlikely best player in 31-year-old shortstop Miguel Rojas , whose 4.2 wins above replacement per 162 games towered above his previous career high of 1.8 ( set in 2017 ) .
In its current state , a lot of this roster looks like what you ’ d expect from a team with the majors ’ third-lowest payroll .
But thanks to strong drafts and a series of trades for prospects , the Marlins had a top-five farm system @ @ @ @ @ @ @ season , with young outfielders JJ Bleday and Jesús Sánchez and shortstop Jazz Chisholm ranked as their top-ranked position players .
Miami had the fifth-youngest pitching staff in MLB last season , spearheaded by Sixto Sánchez ( in his age-21 season ) , Pablo López ( 24 ) , Sandy Alcántara ( 24 ) and Elieser Hernández ( 25 ) .
( And 21-year-old right-hander Max Meyer is also on the way within the next few seasons . )
For a franchise still reeling from the death of ace José Fernández , the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a solid starting point for Ng to build from .
Of course , these are the Marlins , after all — a team synonymous with perennially low salaries , punctuated by the occasional championship fire sale .
But Ng has said she wants to change the perception of the franchise .
“ We are building for the long term in South Florida , ” she said in a statement after her hiring was announced .
“ When I got into this business , it seemed unlikely a woman would lead a Major League @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the pursuit of my goals .
My goal is now to bring championship baseball to Miami .
I am both humbled and eager to continue building the winning culture our fans expect and deserve.
” As Ng works toward her goals for her team , she ’ ll be simultaneously bulldozing obstacles for a future generation of women who aspire to work at the highest levels of baseball .

Long-overdue baseball history was made late last week when the Miami Marlins announced they had hired Kim Ng as general manager. Ng is MLB’s first female GM, as well as the sport’s first Asian American GM, and she is also the first woman to serve as general manager in any major North American men’s league. In breaking those barriers, Ng will undoubtedly influence a younger generation of girls to aim for jobs in the traditionally male-dominated world of baseball. In the interim, she’ll also step into an intriguing situation in Miami — at the helm of what was baseball’s most surprising team in 2020.
Ng’s ascendance to the GM chair has been a long time coming. In fact, she might be one of the most qualified first-time GMs ever, based on her wealth of previous experience. After graduating from the University of Chicago in 1990, Ng began her MLB path as an intern with the Chicago White Sox, quickly becoming a full-time analyst with the club and then its assistant director of baseball operations. There, she became the youngest person — and first woman — to present an arbitration case, ultimately winning Chicago its bid over pitcher Alex Fernandez’s salary.
In 1998, Ng was named assistant GM of the New York Yankees under Brian Cashman, at the time becoming (at age 29) the youngest person in MLB to hold that post. She would go on to win three championships with the Yankees, part of a dynasty that also included current Marlins CEO Derek Jeter at shortstop. Ng spent the next decade as the Los Angeles Dodgers’ vice president and assistant GM, and she had been with MLB’s league office as its senior vice president of baseball operations since 2011.
Ng was seemingly on the short list for every GM opening in the past decade but was repeatedly passed over. According to ESPN’s Stats & Information Group, Ng previously interviewed for GM jobs with the Dodgers, Los Angeles Angels, San Diego Padres (twice) and Seattle Mariners. Now that she is finally getting her chance with the Marlins, though, it is likely that Ng is exceptionally well-prepared to succeed — for the same reason that members of other historically underrepresented groups tend to shine once they are finally given a fair opportunity.
Think of an earlier baseball trailblazer, Jackie Robinson, who instantly played like an MVP after breaking the color barrier — representing the tip of an iceberg of great Black players who had been unjustly denied entry to MLB. Or how Black NFL quarterbacks still tend to be better than their white counterparts, decades after Doug Williams and Warren Moon: Going into Week 10, the average Black starting QB this season carried an Elo rating 24 percent better than the average white QB. This is simply a selection effect at work: People who tear down barriers of prejudice have to be that much better in order to reach the same level of status as those who don’t face discrimination.
So it would figure that Ng has more than enough ability and knowledge to be an outstanding GM. And the team she inherits contains a lot of interesting possibilities. Despite an early season COVID-19 crisis, the Marlins came out of nowhere last season to make the playoffs — and even swept a postseason series! — solidifying themselves as one of the big winners of 2020 pandemic-ball:
That said, they probably played above their heads to get there. According to our friend the Pythagorean expectation — which predicts a team’s record based on its runs scored and allowed — Miami “should have” gone 26-34 instead of 31-29, which would have left it outside the postseason picture entirely. (That five-win difference between Miami’s actual and expected records was the largest gap in baseball.) Along the way, the team found an unlikely best player in 31-year-old shortstop Miguel Rojas, whose 4.2 wins above replacement per 162 games towered above his previous career high of 1.8 (set in 2017). In its current state, a lot of this roster looks like what you’d expect from a team with the majors’ third-lowest payroll.
But thanks to strong drafts and a series of trades for prospects, the Marlins had a top-five farm system by the end of the 2020 regular season, with young outfielders JJ Bleday and Jesús Sánchez and shortstop Jazz Chisholm ranked as their top-ranked position players. Miami had the fifth-youngest pitching staff in MLB last season, spearheaded by Sixto Sánchez (in his age-21 season), Pablo López (24), Sandy Alcántara (24) and Elieser Hernández (25). (And 21-year-old right-hander Max Meyer is also on the way within the next few seasons.) For a franchise still reeling from the death of ace José Fernández, the current Marlins’ promising staff looks like a solid starting point for Ng to build from.
Of course, these are the Marlins, after all — a team synonymous with perennially low salaries, punctuated by the occasional championship fire sale. But Ng has said she wants to change the perception of the franchise.
“We are building for the long term in South Florida,” she said in a statement after her hiring was announced. “When I got into this business, it seemed unlikely a woman would lead a Major League team, but I am dogged in the pursuit of my goals. My goal is now to bring championship baseball to Miami. I am both humbled and eager to continue building the winning culture our fans expect and deserve.”
As Ng works toward her goals for her team, she’ll be simultaneously bulldozing obstacles for a future generation of women who aspire to work at the highest levels of baseball.


fivethirthyeight--2020-11-16--How A Record Number Of Republican Women Will — And Won’t — Change Congress

More women will serve in the 117th Congress than ever before : At least 142 will take their seats in the next Congress , according to ABC News race projections , and that number could continue to grow as we don ’ t yet know who will win several competitive House races featuring women .
But regardless of how many more women win , the 2018 record of 127 women in Congress has already been shattered .
What ’ s more , the incoming class of women in Congress is not almost exclusively Democrats , as was the case in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 35 Republican women are expected to join the 117th Congress , up from 22 in 2018 , with some races still too close to call .
Polls were off for the 2020 election , but not by much | FiveThirtyEight There are , unsurprisingly , still far more Democratic women than Republican women in the next Congress ( 106 vs. 35 in races projected so far ) , and we ’ re still far from reaching gender parity in either chamber , but it does seem as if more women are running — @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Are On Track To Take Back The House In 2022 ] Tipping the gender balance in Congress was always going to be hard if only one party was electing large numbers of women , and as you can see in the chart below , that has largely been the case so far , with Democrats electing far more women than Republicans .
The GOP made strides this year , but it still has a lot of catching up to do .
In fact , the last time the GOP sent at least 30 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a record-breaking year then , too .
So why are there still so many fewer Republican congresswomen than Democratic ones ?
One reason is simply that more women identify as Democrats than as Republicans .
But it ’ s also true that Democratic women have long been better positioned to run for political office because they are more likely to have social , recruitment and fundraising networks that support those ambitions than Republican women .
Plus , Democratic voters are more likely than Republican voters to say more women should be serving in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a rocky start , Republicans invested early in Republican women , as I wrote this summer .
Groups like Winning for Women and New York Rep. Elise Stefanik ’ s Elevate-PAC made a concerted effort to recruit strong female candidates to run in competitive seats , and it seems to have paid off , often at the expense of Democratic women who won in red-leaning districts in 2018 — notably Donna Shalala in Florida ’ s 27th District ( defeated by Maria Elvira Salazar ) , Kendra Horn in Oklahoma ’ s 5th @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , Xochitl Torres Small in New Mexico ’ s 2nd District ( defeated by Yvette Herrell ) and Abby Finkenauer in Iowa ’ s 1st District ( defeated by Ashley Hinson ) .
Historically , women in both parties ( but especially Republicans ) have been recruited to run as “ sacrificial lambs ” in races that the party knew it couldn ’ t win .
And as the chart above shows , that was true this year as well .
But many GOP women also ran in more competitive places , and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s less clear , though , what this uptick in female representation will mean for the future of the legislative branch .
Many of the new and returning senators and representatives have very different — and perhaps competing — visions for what it means to be a woman in Congress , which is why , for example , a number of female candidates ran to unseat a female incumbent .
There is some evidence that institutions that have more women in their ranks are perceived as more legitimate .
As University of South @ @ @ @ @ @ @ me via email , “ [ W ] hen individuals believe women are included they express more efficacy , trust , and approval and believe the institution is more competent to create policy.
” This could be especially important for Congress , considering most Americans have a poor opinion of it .
But while many people believe that women in political leadership positions are more compassionate and better at building compromise , it ’ s a relatively open question whether that actually happens in Congress .
Women in Congress report spending more time @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and studies suggest that women in Congress are more collegial , but their legislative activity ( such as cosponsoring bills ) is actually pretty similar to men ’ s .
It seems clear that the growing partisan divide in the U.S. has created fairly strong disincentives for engaging in bipartisan compromise for men — and women .
So will electing more women to Congress help curb the polarization between the two parties ?
The most likely answer is : No .
Take the studies that have found that , women in both parties @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , children and families once in office .
These areas could be a real opportunity for bipartisanship , but an analysis of Senate bill cosponsorship found that these issues are no longer core to the Republican Party and , as a result , Republican women in the Senate did not really advocate for these policies , while Democratic women did .
In other words , today ’ s GOP women and Democratic women might simply view their roles in Congress very differently due to their party allegiance , so they champion very different @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Republican women may not see eye-to-eye on a number of issues , but getting more women in politics should create an environment where women ’ s distinctive concerns ( and voices ) are prioritized , especially once women are 30 or 40 percent of a group that makes decisions by majority rule , as research by political scientists Tali Mendelberg and Christopher F. Karpowitz shows .
That said , there is still a ways to go before we reach that critical mass .
Women will still make up just one-quarter of Congress come @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in this election .
But if the 2018 and 2020 elections are any indication , and the Republican Party stays committed to recruiting women to run , that number is only going to grow .
Where the rest of the 2020 races stand | FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast

More women will serve in the 117th Congress than ever before: At least 142 will take their seats in the next Congress, according to ABC News race projections, and that number could continue to grow as we don’t yet know who will win several competitive House races featuring women.
But regardless of how many more women win, the 2018 record of 127 women in Congress has already been shattered. What’s more, the incoming class of women in Congress is not almost exclusively Democrats, as was the case in 2018); instead, at least 35 Republican women are expected to join the 117th Congress, up from 22 in 2018, with some races still too close to call.
Polls were off for the 2020 election, but not by much | FiveThirtyEight
There are, unsurprisingly, still far more Democratic women than Republican women in the next Congress (106 vs. 35 in races projected so far), and we’re still far from reaching gender parity in either chamber, but it does seem as if more women are running — and winning.
[Related: Republicans Are On Track To Take Back The House In 2022]
Tipping the gender balance in Congress was always going to be hard if only one party was electing large numbers of women, and as you can see in the chart below, that has largely been the case so far, with Democrats electing far more women than Republicans. The GOP made strides this year, but it still has a lot of catching up to do.
In fact, the last time the GOP sent at least 30 women to Congress was in 2004, a record-breaking year then, too. So why are there still so many fewer Republican congresswomen than Democratic ones? One reason is simply that more women identify as Democrats than as Republicans. But it’s also true that Democratic women have long been better positioned to run for political office because they are more likely to have social, recruitment and fundraising networks that support those ambitions than Republican women. Plus, Democratic voters are more likely than Republican voters to say more women should be serving in government.
But this cycle, despite a rocky start, Republicans invested early in Republican women, as I wrote this summer. Groups like Winning for Women and New York Rep. Elise Stefanik’s Elevate-PAC made a concerted effort to recruit strong female candidates to run in competitive seats, and it seems to have paid off, often at the expense of Democratic women who won in red-leaning districts in 2018 — notably Donna Shalala in Florida’s 27th District (defeated by Maria Elvira Salazar), Kendra Horn in Oklahoma’s 5th District (defeated by Stephanie Bice), Xochitl Torres Small in New Mexico’s 2nd District (defeated by Yvette Herrell) and Abby Finkenauer in Iowa’s 1st District (defeated by Ashley Hinson).
Historically, women in both parties (but especially Republicans) have been recruited to run as “sacrificial lambs” in races that the party knew it couldn’t win. And as the chart above shows, that was true this year as well. But many GOP women also ran in more competitive places, and most of them won.
It’s less clear, though, what this uptick in female representation will mean for the future of the legislative branch. Many of the new and returning senators and representatives have very different — and perhaps competing — visions for what it means to be a woman in Congress, which is why, for example, a number of female candidates ran to unseat a female incumbent. There is some evidence that institutions that have more women in their ranks are perceived as more legitimate. As University of South Carolina political science professor Katelyn Stauffer told me via email, “[W]hen individuals believe women are included they express more efficacy, trust, and approval and believe the institution is more competent to create policy.” This could be especially important for Congress, considering most Americans have a poor opinion of it.
But while many people believe that women in political leadership positions are more compassionate and better at building compromise, it’s a relatively open question whether that actually happens in Congress. Women in Congress report spending more time engaging in across-party coalitions than men, and studies suggest that women in Congress are more collegial, but their legislative activity (such as cosponsoring bills) is actually pretty similar to men’s. It seems clear that the growing partisan divide in the U.S. has created fairly strong disincentives for engaging in bipartisan compromise for men — and women. So will electing more women to Congress help curb the polarization between the two parties?
[Related: How Trump Changed America]
The most likely answer is: No. Take the studies that have found that, women in both parties tend to prioritize issues related to women, children and families once in office. These areas could be a real opportunity for bipartisanship, but an analysis of Senate bill cosponsorship found that these issues are no longer core to the Republican Party and, as a result, Republican women in the Senate did not really advocate for these policies, while Democratic women did. In other words, today’s GOP women and Democratic women might simply view their roles in Congress very differently due to their party allegiance, so they champion very different causes as a result.
Democratic and Republican women may not see eye-to-eye on a number of issues, but getting more women in politics should create an environment where women’s distinctive concerns (and voices) are prioritized, especially once women are 30 or 40 percent of a group that makes decisions by majority rule, as research by political scientists Tali Mendelberg and Christopher F. Karpowitz shows. That said, there is still a ways to go before we reach that critical mass. Women will still make up just one-quarter of Congress come January, despite all the gains made in this election. But if the 2018 and 2020 elections are any indication, and the Republican Party stays committed to recruiting women to run, that number is only going to grow.
Where the rest of the 2020 races stand | FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast


fivethirthyeight--2020-11-17--What Trump’s Refusal To Concede Says About American Democracy

At nearly 2:30 a.m. Wednesday , the morning after Election Day 2016 , the Associated Press declared Donald Trump the winner of the presidential election .
Around the same time , former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton phoned Trump to concede , a call she made at the urging of then-President Barack Obama .
That Thursday , less than 48 hours after the election results , Obama met with his successor to help him prepare for the transition to the presidency .
Four years later , nothing like that has happened .
More than a week has passed since major @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , but Trump has refused to concede .
Instead , his legal team is pushing efforts to invalidate the results , and his administration won ’ t work with Biden officials on the transition of power .
Top Republicans in Congress and around the country aren ’ t openly acknowledging Biden ’ s victory either .
That some Republicans won ’ t go along with the traditional niceties following a presidential election ( like congratulating the victor from the opposing party ) isn ’ t that important .
But the sitting president ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ worrisome , as it raises the prospect that he will not uphold a core tenet of democracy : Elections determine who is in power , and those who lose surrender power peacefully .
The behavior of top Republican Party officials — subtly acknowledging that Trump must leave office on Jan. 20 but not openly rebuking his conduct — in some ways also violates that core value .
And the combination of Trump ’ s and his party ’ s behavior raises a serious question : Is America ’ s democracy in trouble ?
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ and values both in the United States and abroad say that the behavior of Trump and the Republican Party over the past week deeply concerns them .
Dartmouth College political scientist Brendan Nyhan says it ’ s important not to think of democracy in binary terms — that either a nation is or is not a democracy .
Instead , Nyhan argues , democracy falls more on a spectrum , and based on how Trump broke with democratic values as president and how he is handling the end of his presidency , America @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is somewhat less democratic than it was pre-Trump .
This tweet from The New York Times ’ s Max Fisher , who has written extensively about the erosion of democracies abroad , is particularly apt : Not respecting the election results is problematic on its own .
But considering the crisis the nation is facing now — a new surge in coronavirus cases — Trump ’ s actions are particularly dangerous .
Now more than ever , an effective transition of power is of the utmost importance .
Not only is Trump blocking @ @ @ @ @ @ @ administration get ready to deal with the pandemic , but the defeated president has largely disengaged from the COVID-19 crisis himself .
In terms of managing the virus , America will be functionally without a president for two months .
We can ’ t totally rule out the most alarming possibility either — that Trump is going to try to stay in office past Jan. 20 .
After all , he has mobilized some key parts of the federal government and the Republican Party behind his efforts to question and undermine the election @ @ @ @ @ @ @ said at a State Department press conference last week that “ there will be a smooth transition to a second Trump administration.
” Attorney General William Barr announced that U.S. attorneys could start investigating potential voter fraud ( even though there is no evidence of such fraud ) before the election results are certified — rather than after certification , which is the Justice Department ’ s normal policy .
That move resulted in the department ’ s leading official on election crimes resigning from his post in protest .
And , most @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Esper , while the rest of the department ’ s senior leaders either resigned or were replaced with people considered more loyal to the president .
A leader of a nation losing an election and then consolidating control of the military is far from ideal .
As Nyhan notes regularly on his Twitter feed when discussing Trump ’ s moves , “ What would you say if you saw it in another country ?
” But whatever Trump ’ s intentions , it seems far-fetched for him to stay in power .
Courts @ @ @ @ @ @ @ claims , and even Republican officials in key swing states are unwilling to support outlandish proposals to hand Trump electoral votes in states that he lost .
Republican senators are saying that Biden should start receiving classified intelligence briefings , a de facto acknowledgement that the former vice president needs to be prepared to take over on Jan 20 .
So , it seems that America ’ s democracy has survived mostly intact for now .
An election was held , the opposition party defeated the ruling party , and the opposition party @ @ @ @ @ @ @ That said , the last week has been far from reassuring .
If the election had come down to just one state , would Trump be even more recalcitrant ?
If it were a closer election , would the broader GOP more openly support Trump ’ s efforts to stay in power ?
Would the Supreme Court , which includes six justices appointed by Republican presidents and some justices who seem strongly aligned with the party ’ s goals , have interjected in a way that boosted Trump ?
It ’ s hard @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Democratic values are almost certain to be upheld this time — that is , the election determined who will be in charge , and the transfer of power will ultimately be peaceful .
But it ’ s not totally clear that these values will be upheld the next time a Trump-like figure emerges .
American democracy is likely to survive Trump , but his tenure has raised important questions about the state of America ’ s democracy and whether it will endure in perpetuity .

Perry Bacon Jr. (perry.bacon@fivethirtyeight.com)

At nearly 2:30 a.m. Wednesday, the morning after Election Day 2016, the Associated Press declared Donald Trump the winner of the presidential election. Around the same time, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton phoned Trump to concede, a call she made at the urging of then-President Barack Obama. That Thursday, less than 48 hours after the election results, Obama met with his successor to help him prepare for the transition to the presidency.
What Trump revealed about America | FiveThirtyEight
Four years later, nothing like that has happened. More than a week has passed since major news outlets declared Joe Biden the winner, but Trump has refused to concede. Instead, his legal team is pushing efforts to invalidate the results, and his administration won’t work with Biden officials on the transition of power. Top Republicans in Congress and around the country aren’t openly acknowledging Biden’s victory either.
[Related: Americans Were Primed To Believe The Current Onslaught Of Disinformation]
That some Republicans won’t go along with the traditional niceties following a presidential election (like congratulating the victor from the opposing party) isn’t that important. But the sitting president’s refusal to acknowledge electoral defeat is worrisome, as it raises the prospect that he will not uphold a core tenet of democracy: Elections determine who is in power, and those who lose surrender power peacefully. The behavior of top Republican Party officials — subtly acknowledging that Trump must leave office on Jan. 20 but not openly rebuking his conduct — in some ways also violates that core value. And the combination of Trump’s and his party’s behavior raises a serious question: Is America’s democracy in trouble?
Maybe. People who study democratic norms and values both in the United States and abroad say that the behavior of Trump and the Republican Party over the past week deeply concerns them. Dartmouth College political scientist Brendan Nyhan says it’s important not to think of democracy in binary terms — that either a nation is or is not a democracy. Instead, Nyhan argues, democracy falls more on a spectrum, and based on how Trump broke with democratic values as president and how he is handling the end of his presidency, America does remain a democracy, but it is somewhat less democratic than it was pre-Trump.
This tweet from The New York Times’s Max Fisher, who has written extensively about the erosion of democracies abroad, is particularly apt:
“Whatever happens now, we may spend the rest of our lives dealing with the party-wide normalization of: Refusal to concede losses
Refusal to transfer power
Efforts to overturn election results
Delegitimation of outparty governance Very hard to unring this bell.”
Not respecting the election results is problematic on its own. But considering the crisis the nation is facing now — a new surge in coronavirus cases — Trump’s actions are particularly dangerous. Now more than ever, an effective transition of power is of the utmost importance.
Not only is Trump blocking his advisers from helping the incoming Biden administration get ready to deal with the pandemic, but the defeated president has largely disengaged from the COVID-19 crisis himself. In terms of managing the virus, America will be functionally without a president for two months.
We can’t totally rule out the most alarming possibility either — that Trump is going to try to stay in office past Jan. 20. After all, he has mobilized some key parts of the federal government and the Republican Party behind his efforts to question and undermine the election results.
[Related: Biden Won — But The Deep Partisan Divide In America Remains]
Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said at a State Department press conference last week that “there will be a smooth transition to a second Trump administration.” Attorney General William Barr announced that U.S. attorneys could start investigating potential voter fraud (even though there is no evidence of such fraud) before the election results are certified — rather than after certification, which is the Justice Department’s normal policy. That move resulted in the department’s leading official on election crimes resigning from his post in protest. And, most alarmingly, Trump fired Defense Secretary Mark Esper, while the rest of the department’s senior leaders either resigned or were replaced with people considered more loyal to the president. A leader of a nation losing an election and then consolidating control of the military is far from ideal. As Nyhan notes regularly on his Twitter feed when discussing Trump’s moves, “What would you say if you saw it in another country?”
But whatever Trump’s intentions, it seems far-fetched for him to stay in power. Courts are rejecting his legal team’s claims, and even Republican officials in key swing states are unwilling to support outlandish proposals to hand Trump electoral votes in states that he lost. Republican senators are saying that Biden should start receiving classified intelligence briefings, a de facto acknowledgement that the former vice president needs to be prepared to take over on Jan 20.
So, it seems that America’s democracy has survived mostly intact for now. An election was held, the opposition party defeated the ruling party, and the opposition party will take control of the government. That said, the last week has been far from reassuring. If the election had come down to just one state, would Trump be even more recalcitrant? If it were a closer election, would the broader GOP more openly support Trump’s efforts to stay in power? Would the Supreme Court, which includes six justices appointed by Republican presidents and some justices who seem strongly aligned with the party’s goals, have interjected in a way that boosted Trump?
It’s hard to know the answers to these questions. Democratic values are almost certain to be upheld this time — that is, the election determined who will be in charge, and the transfer of power will ultimately be peaceful. But it’s not totally clear that these values will be upheld the next time a Trump-like figure emerges. American democracy is likely to survive Trump, but his tenure has raised important questions about the state of America’s democracy and whether it will endure in perpetuity.
Polls were off for the 2020 election, but not by much | FiveThirtyEight


fivethirthyeight--2020-11-17--One Wild Week Of The NBA Offseason

One Wild Week Of The NBA Offseason

We start with what ’ s going on in the NBA — and there is a lot .
The moratorium on trade deals ended Monday , leading to a flurry of activity that included moves for Chris Paul and Jrue Holiday .
The draft is on Wednesday .
On Friday , free agency negotiations can officially begin .
And training camps start in just two weeks .
“ November madness ” doesn ’ t quite describe this condensed offseason , but the NBA is squeezing a lot into the next two weeks , which means some crazy things might happen @ @ @ @ @ @ @ getting traded to the Brooklyn Nets ” crazy .
The Hot Takedown team is largely positive about the deals that have been inked so far — although the Milwaukee Bucks giving up almost their entire bench for Holiday and Bogdan Bogdanović will only be a success if a certain superstar player on the team sticks around as well .
As for the draft , fans may have very little idea who anyone is , given the absence of the NCAA tournament to raise or lower players ’ profiles .
But maybe players coming @ @ @ @ @ @ @ judged on slightly different metrics — and have a slightly cleaner slate .
Next , we move to baseball ’ s offseason , during which the Miami Marlins made a historic hire .
Kim Ng , a veteran of the Yankees and Dodgers front offices and a fixture at the commissioner ’ s office for the past nine years , is now the first woman to serve as GM of a major male American sports team , the first Asian American and only the second person of Asian descent to do so .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ new GMs in history , although she inherits a Marlins team that was , according to our model , especially lucky last year and probably won ’ t be able to hang onto its good players for long .
But Ng ’ s hire hopefully breaks a trend that may have prevented other women and people of color from getting in the door a lot sooner .
There is a trend in sports of hiring sabermetric wunderkinds in their 30s — but there ’ s no reason that some of those up-and-comers with @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to running an organization shouldn ’ t also be women and people of color .
Well , there is a reason .
But it ’ s as stupid today as it was in 2005 , when Ng first started interviewing for GM roles .
Finally , in the Rabbit Hole , we ’ re joined by FiveThirtyEight copy editor Santul Nerkar , who teamed up with Neil to uncover the most random basketball players to ever score 50+ points in a game .
It ’ s a delightfully eclectic mix — though there @ @ @ @ @ @ @ if Shaq had just hit more of his free throws .
What we ’ re looking at this week : • NBA draft prospects who could be the perfect fit for the modern league .
• Why Kim Ng ’ s hiring might be the start of something special in Miami .

We start with what’s going on in the NBA — and there is a lot. The moratorium on trade deals ended Monday, leading to a flurry of activity that included moves for Chris Paul and Jrue Holiday. The draft is on Wednesday. On Friday, free agency negotiations can officially begin. And training camps start in just two weeks. “November madness” doesn’t quite describe this condensed offseason, but the NBA is squeezing a lot into the next two weeks, which means some crazy things might happen — although probably not “James Harden getting traded to the Brooklyn Nets” crazy. The Hot Takedown team is largely positive about the deals that have been inked so far — although the Milwaukee Bucks giving up almost their entire bench for Holiday and Bogdan Bogdanović will only be a success if a certain superstar player on the team sticks around as well. As for the draft, fans may have very little idea who anyone is, given the absence of the NCAA tournament to raise or lower players’ profiles. But maybe players coming into the NBA this year will be judged on slightly different metrics — and have a slightly cleaner slate.
Next, we move to baseball’s offseason, during which the Miami Marlins made a historic hire. Kim Ng, a veteran of the Yankees and Dodgers front offices and a fixture at the commissioner’s office for the past nine years, is now the first woman to serve as GM of a major male American sports team, the first Asian American and only the second person of Asian descent to do so. Ng is one of the most qualified new GMs in history, although she inherits a Marlins team that was, according to our model, especially lucky last year and probably won’t be able to hang onto its good players for long. But Ng’s hire hopefully breaks a trend that may have prevented other women and people of color from getting in the door a lot sooner. There is a trend in sports of hiring sabermetric wunderkinds in their 30s — but there’s no reason that some of those up-and-comers with less than half the experience Ng brings to running an organization shouldn’t also be women and people of color. Well, there is a reason. But it’s as stupid today as it was in 2005, when Ng first started interviewing for GM roles.
Finally, in the Rabbit Hole, we’re joined by FiveThirtyEight copy editor Santul Nerkar, who teamed up with Neil to uncover the most random basketball players to ever score 50+ points in a game. It’s a delightfully eclectic mix — though there could have been more of those games if Shaq had just hit more of his free throws.
What we’re looking at this week:


fivethirthyeight--2020-11-17--These 3 NBA Draft Prospects Are Perfect Fits For The Modern League

The 2020 NBA draft class contains no obvious franchise player .
Instead , there are question marks attached to almost every potential lottery pick .
Teams will choose from volatile , ball-dominant playmakers , imposing big men who aren ’ t well-rounded , tantalizing athletes who either can ’ t shoot or don ’ t defend and speedy , undersized floor generals .
Outside these specific categories are three modernistic wings — Villanova ’ s Saddiq Bey , Florida State ’ s Devin Vassell and Vanderbilt ’ s Aaron Nesmith — who have been pegged by most mock drafts as @ @ @ @ @ @ @ They deserve to be held in a higher regard .
Each prospect has a wingspan that stretches to nearly 7 feet , defensive awareness and a precise 3-point shot as their most attractive attributes , making them tailor-made for an NBA that for the past half-decade has put a premium on such traits .
These three players aren ’ t projected to become the featured options in a top-10 offense .
They might not make the unteachable , can ’ t-miss plays that immediately imbue an entire fan base with hope .
Instead @ @ @ @ @ @ @ comfort of certainty : Bey , Vassell and Nesmith would make sense anywhere — and their skills are as necessary as they should be coveted .
Until further notice , there ’ s no such thing as having too many good 3-point shooters — in a league where the average 3-point rate grows every year — who can defend multiple positions .
At the same time , the “ 3-and-D ” label that ’ s been written across these players ’ foreheads over the past couple of months undersells everything else they can @ @ @ @ @ @ @ they might still develop .
At worst , these players could become complementary pieces — think Danny Green , Jae Crowder or Robert Covington — who could conveniently see a ton of minutes regardless of the opponent .
( According to KenPom , Bey finished eighth in the Big East , in conference play , in the share of his team ’ s minutes he was on the floor . )
At best , they could turn into longtime , solid staples for whichever team selects them , if not reliable scoring options @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of an All-Star appearance or two .
( Think Klay Thompson , Khris Middleton or a slightly larger Buddy Hield with defensive chops . )
Inject one of these players into a sterile Atlanta defense that , according to Second Spectrum , allowed a league-worst 1.18 points per possession when switching screens , and it would be more difficult for offenses to single out and attack targets like Trae Young .
And on the other end , the Hawks averaged the third-fewest off-ball screens per 100 possessions last season , so adding Nesmith @ @ @ @ @ @ @ predictable pick-and-roll attack .
The New York Knicks ( eighth pick ) , Detroit Pistons ( seventh ) , San Antonio Spurs ( 11th ) and Chicago Bulls ( fourth ) are all in search of a shot-creating centerpiece , but each team is likely facing a lengthy rebuild regardless of who they take in this draft .
Why not solidify their foundation now by locking down a two-way cog who answers more questions than he creates — the exact type of player who will contribute to a potential playoff-caliber team in the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ aren ’ t weak links on defense have become obligatory in the postseason , and when those players are also able to confidently attack closeouts , run secondary pick and rolls , get to the rim off a dribble handoff , or even punish a mismatch in the post , they raise their team ’ s floor and ceiling .
Bey is an ideal example .
He ’ s a rangy , strong , 6-foot-8 forward ( with a 6-foot-11 wingspan ) who drained a staggering 45.1 percent — fourth-best in the NCAA @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of the 5.6 threes he launched per game last season .
( According to KenPom , Bey also finished 85th overall in effective field-goal percentage ( 58.5 ) and first in offensive rating in the Big East ( 119.0 ) among all players whose usage rate was at least 20 percent . )
Bey can function in any offensive or defensive system , rebound , move the ball and , if all goes well , eventually make decisions with it in his hands .
On offense , Villanova coach Jay Wright believes Bey @ @ @ @ @ @ @ while his defense could be even more versatile .
Last season , Bey was an across-the-board stopper , according to Wildcat assistant coach Kyle Neptune : “ If it was the point guard , Saddiq would guard him .
If it was a two or three man , Saddiq would guard them .
If the best player was a four man , Saddiq would guard him , too.
” It ’ s easy to imagine a player like Bey immediately helping a playoff team by widening driving lanes for his teammates , operating @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the opponent ’ s better options every night — or at least switching onto them and being able to handle his own .
The Philadelphia 76ers ( 21st ) , Dallas Mavericks ( 18th ) , Portland Trail Blazers ( 16th ) and Brooklyn Nets ( 19th ) could use some or all of what he brings to the table .
( If the Golden State Warriors aren ’ t in love with any of the top prospects , they wouldn ’ t be foolish to trade down and select Bey — or @ @ @ @ @ @ @ teams will probably need to trade up from the back half of the first round if they want Bey , who also makes sense on several teams that haven ’ t seen the postseason in years .
The Atlanta Hawks ( sixth ) , Washington Wizards ( ninth ) , New Orleans Pelicans ( 13th ) and Phoenix Suns ( 10th ) are a few examples : Each one has already molded their style of play around a high-usage All-Star .
If Bey , Vassell and Nesmith end up on one or more @ @ @ @ @ @ @ t need the ball .
That should be seen as a feature , not a bug .
Furthermore , according to Second Spectrum , the Suns , Spurs , Charlotte Hornets ( third ) and Bulls allowed the fourth- , fifth- , sixth- and seventh-most points per possessions guarding isolations last season .
The Hawks and Cleveland Cavaliers surrendered the third- and second-most , respectively .
Improving perimeter defense is a must for each of these lottery teams .
For that reason alone , Vassell , who has been pegged as one of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ draft , makes sense for all these teams .
Along with having a wiry 6-foot-7 frame with a 6-foot-10 wingspan , his off-ball awareness makes it seem as if six defenders are on the floor .
Whether he ’ s trailing ball-handlers over screens , ducking under them and then recovering , or chasing JJ Redick-esque shooting guards from sideline to sideline , Vassell should display his value from the jump .
Just as important : He made 41.7 percent of his threes in two seasons as a Seminole .
It wasn ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ or Nesmith ( only 3.5 tries per game last year ) , but as a sophomore , Vassell finished second in offensive rating ( 126.9 ) and sixth in true shooting percentage ( 58.5 ) in the ACC .
Nationwide , he had the 16th-lowest turnover rate ( 8.2 percent ) , according to KenPom .
Along with Bey , Vassell can excel inside an important role while having the size , physical tools and skill to someday expand beyond it .
Here ’ s what Florida State assistant coach Stan Jones recently @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s got great basketball IQ .
He ’ s a great finisher in transition .
He ’ s got an unbelievable ability to go left or right , take one or two dribbles and get his primary defender up in the air a little bit .
And he ’ s a killer on midrange jumpers.
” Nesmith ’ s draw skews a bit less toward his ability to lock down multiple positions and more toward his potential as the most dangerous outside shooter on the board .
Before a foot injury ended @ @ @ @ @ @ @ drilled a scorching 52 percent of his threes ( 60 of 115 overall ) .
He only made 33.7 percent of them as a freshman , granting fair skepticism of that small sample size .
But the long-range baskets he did make weren ’ t all wide open and off the catch .
Instead , in part by studying how Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum create space with their footwork , Nesmith has incorporated some helpful sidesteps and stepbacks into his own repertoire , stretching his own value outside a traditional 3-and-D weapon @ @ @ @ @ @ @ will go a long way in winning the constant one-on-one battles that take place 28 feet from the basket .
On the other end , with his 6-foot-11 wingspan , Nesmith is confident that he can not only stay on the floor , but also improve whichever defense absorbs him .
“ I ’ m strong , ” he told USA Today ’ s Bryan Kalbrosky .
“ I can guard the four on most teams , and maybe even one through five on teams that like to play small ball.
” There @ @ @ @ @ @ @ three don ’ t shine , and itchier GMs may reach for the brawny , rim-running 7-footer or a guard who may one day offer a tsunami of scoring options all by himself .
Talent and upside are often too enticing to pass up .
But Bey , Vassell and Nesmith are equipped with an invaluable amount of skill and size , enough to elevate their surroundings and simplify their teammates ’ responsibilities whenever they share the floor .
In a league that craves the offensive gravity and defensive versatility each one promises @ @ @ @ @ @ @ be a surprise if more than one is off the board before the first 10 picks are announced .
And at the same time , if all three don ’ t go in the lottery , every team that leaves them sitting in a virtual green room may live to regret it .
Bey , Vassell and Nesmith have exactly what every team needs to win in today ’ s NBA .

The 2020 NBA draft class contains no obvious franchise player. Instead, there are question marks attached to almost every potential lottery pick. Teams will choose from volatile, ball-dominant playmakers, imposing big men who aren’t well-rounded, tantalizing athletes who either can’t shoot or don’t defend and speedy, undersized floor generals.
Outside these specific categories are three modernistic wings — Villanova’s Saddiq Bey, Florida State’s Devin Vassell and Vanderbilt’s Aaron Nesmith — who have been pegged by most mock drafts as worthy of a late lottery pick. They deserve to be held in a higher regard. Each prospect has a wingspan that stretches to nearly 7 feet, defensive awareness and a precise 3-point shot as their most attractive attributes, making them tailor-made for an NBA that for the past half-decade has put a premium on such traits.
These three players aren’t projected to become the featured options in a top-10 offense. They might not make the unteachable, can’t-miss plays that immediately imbue an entire fan base with hope. Instead, their initial appeal is in the comfort of certainty: Bey, Vassell and Nesmith would make sense anywhere — and their skills are as necessary as they should be coveted.
Until further notice, there’s no such thing as having too many good 3-point shooters — in a league where the average 3-point rate grows every year — who can defend multiple positions. At the same time, the “3-and-D” label that’s been written across these players’ foreheads over the past couple of months undersells everything else they can already do, along with the skills they might still develop.
At worst, these players could become complementary pieces — think Danny Green, Jae Crowder or Robert Covington — who could conveniently see a ton of minutes regardless of the opponent. (According to KenPom, Bey finished eighth in the Big East, in conference play, in the share of his team’s minutes he was on the floor.) At best, they could turn into longtime, solid staples for whichever team selects them, if not reliable scoring options in their own right who are capable of an All-Star appearance or two. (Think Klay Thompson, Khris Middleton or a slightly larger Buddy Hield with defensive chops.)
Inject one of these players into a sterile Atlanta defense that, according to Second Spectrum, allowed a league-worst 1.18 points per possession when switching screens, and it would be more difficult for offenses to single out and attack targets like Trae Young. And on the other end, the Hawks averaged the third-fewest off-ball screens per 100 possessions last season, so adding Nesmith, Vassell or Bey could diversify a predictable pick-and-roll attack.
The New York Knicks (eighth pick), Detroit Pistons (seventh), San Antonio Spurs (11th) and Chicago Bulls (fourth) are all in search of a shot-creating centerpiece, but each team is likely facing a lengthy rebuild regardless of who they take in this draft. Why not solidify their foundation now by locking down a two-way cog who answers more questions than he creates — the exact type of player who will contribute to a potential playoff-caliber team in the near future?
Accurate long-range shooters who aren’t weak links on defense have become obligatory in the postseason, and when those players are also able to confidently attack closeouts, run secondary pick and rolls, get to the rim off a dribble handoff, or even punish a mismatch in the post, they raise their team’s floor and ceiling. Bey is an ideal example.
He’s a rangy, strong, 6-foot-8 forward (with a 6-foot-11 wingspan) who drained a staggering 45.1 percent — fourth-best in the NCAA and first in the Big East — of the 5.6 threes he launched per game last season. (According to KenPom, Bey also finished 85th overall in effective field-goal percentage (58.5) and first in offensive rating in the Big East (119.0) among all players whose usage rate was at least 20 percent.)
Bey can function in any offensive or defensive system, rebound, move the ball and, if all goes well, eventually make decisions with it in his hands. On offense, Villanova coach Jay Wright believes Bey can even play some point guard, while his defense could be even more versatile. Last season, Bey was an across-the-board stopper, according to Wildcat assistant coach Kyle Neptune: “If it was the point guard, Saddiq would guard him. If it was a two or three man, Saddiq would guard them. If the best player was a four man, Saddiq would guard him, too.”
It’s easy to imagine a player like Bey immediately helping a playoff team by widening driving lanes for his teammates, operating off the ball and covering one of the opponent’s better options every night — or at least switching onto them and being able to handle his own. The Philadelphia 76ers (21st), Dallas Mavericks (18th), Portland Trail Blazers (16th) and Brooklyn Nets (19th) could use some or all of what he brings to the table. (If the Golden State Warriors aren’t in love with any of the top prospects, they wouldn’t be foolish to trade down and select Bey — or Vassell and Nesmith.)
But these teams will probably need to trade up from the back half of the first round if they want Bey, who also makes sense on several teams that haven’t seen the postseason in years. The Atlanta Hawks (sixth), Washington Wizards (ninth), New Orleans Pelicans (13th) and Phoenix Suns (10th) are a few examples: Each one has already molded their style of play around a high-usage All-Star. If Bey, Vassell and Nesmith end up on one or more of these teams, they won’t need the ball. That should be seen as a feature, not a bug.
Furthermore, according to Second Spectrum, the Suns, Spurs, Charlotte Hornets (third) and Bulls allowed the fourth-, fifth-, sixth- and seventh-most points per possessions guarding isolations last season. The Hawks and Cleveland Cavaliers surrendered the third- and second-most, respectively. Improving perimeter defense is a must for each of these lottery teams.
For that reason alone, Vassell, who has been pegged as one of the best defensive players in the entire draft, makes sense for all these teams. Along with having a wiry 6-foot-7 frame with a 6-foot-10 wingspan, his off-ball awareness makes it seem as if six defenders are on the floor. Whether he’s trailing ball-handlers over screens, ducking under them and then recovering, or chasing JJ Redick-esque shooting guards from sideline to sideline, Vassell should display his value from the jump.
Just as important: He made 41.7 percent of his threes in two seasons as a Seminole. It wasn’t at the same volume as Bey or Nesmith (only 3.5 tries per game last year), but as a sophomore, Vassell finished second in offensive rating (126.9) and sixth in true shooting percentage (58.5) in the ACC. Nationwide, he had the 16th-lowest turnover rate (8.2 percent), according to KenPom. Along with Bey, Vassell can excel inside an important role while having the size, physical tools and skill to someday expand beyond it.
Here’s what Florida State assistant coach Stan Jones recently said about his development: “He’s got great basketball IQ. He’s a great finisher in transition. He’s got an unbelievable ability to go left or right, take one or two dribbles and get his primary defender up in the air a little bit. And he’s a killer on midrange jumpers.”
Nesmith’s draw skews a bit less toward his ability to lock down multiple positions and more toward his potential as the most dangerous outside shooter on the board. Before a foot injury ended his sophomore season, the 6-foot-6 wing drilled a scorching 52 percent of his threes (60 of 115 overall). He only made 33.7 percent of them as a freshman, granting fair skepticism of that small sample size. But the long-range baskets he did make weren’t all wide open and off the catch.
Instead, in part by studying how Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum create space with their footwork, Nesmith has incorporated some helpful sidesteps and stepbacks into his own repertoire, stretching his own value outside a traditional 3-and-D weapon. Those rapid-fire responses against NBA-level athleticism will go a long way in winning the constant one-on-one battles that take place 28 feet from the basket.
On the other end, with his 6-foot-11 wingspan, Nesmith is confident that he can not only stay on the floor, but also improve whichever defense absorbs him. “I’m strong,” he told USA Today’s Bryan Kalbrosky. “I can guard the four on most teams, and maybe even one through five on teams that like to play small ball.”
There are important areas of basketball where these three don’t shine, and itchier GMs may reach for the brawny, rim-running 7-footer or a guard who may one day offer a tsunami of scoring options all by himself. Talent and upside are often too enticing to pass up. But Bey, Vassell and Nesmith are equipped with an invaluable amount of skill and size, enough to elevate their surroundings and simplify their teammates’ responsibilities whenever they share the floor.
In a league that craves the offensive gravity and defensive versatility each one promises to offer, it shouldn’t be a surprise if more than one is off the board before the first 10 picks are announced. And at the same time, if all three don’t go in the lottery, every team that leaves them sitting in a virtual green room may live to regret it. Bey, Vassell and Nesmith have exactly what every team needs to win in today’s NBA.