climatedepot--2020-07-10--Matt Ridley: The Planet’s Future Has Never Looked Brighter

Doomsday thinking about the environment has been popular for decades .
A rational optimist lays out the many reasons we can be hopeful about the future of the planet .
In 1980 , the year that PERC was founded , I spent three months in the Himalayas working on a wildlife conservation project .
The purpose was to do wildlife surveys on behalf of the Indian government in the stunningly beautiful valleys of the Kulu region in northern India , among forests of deodar cedar and evergreen oak .
One species of particular interest was a bird called the western @ @ @ @ @ @ @ forest pheasant with red plumage around the neck and bright blue skin on the male ’ s throat .
The bird was found only in a few places and thought to be teetering on the brink of extinction .
Though we saw other pheasant species , we never saw a tragopan that year , but some of the people we met knew of the bird , and one even handed me the remains of a tragopan that had been shot for food .
I feared it might be the last one .
I @ @ @ @ @ @ @ when the birds ’ mating calls might give them away in the deep bamboo thickets they preferred , but work prevented me .
If you had asked me in 1980 to predict what would happen to that bird and its forest ecosystem , I would have been very pessimistic .
I could see the effect on the forests of growing human populations , with their guns and flocks of sheep .
More generally , I was marinated in gloom by almost everything I read about the environment .
The human population explosion was @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of famine ; malaria and other diseases were going to increase ; oil , gas , and metals would soon run out , forcing us to return to burning wood ; most forests would then be felled ; deserts were expanding ; half of all species were heading for extinction ; the great whales would soon be gone from the oil-stained oceans ; sprawling cities and modern farms were going to swallow up the last wild places ; and pollution of the air , rivers , sea , and earth was beginning to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ don ’ t remember reading anything remotely optimistic about the future of the planet .
Today , the valleys we worked in are part of the Great Himalayan National Park , a protected area that gained prestigious World Heritage status in 2014 .
The logo of the park is an image of the western tragopan , a bird you can now go on a trekking holiday specifically to watch .
It has not gone extinct , and although it is still rare and hard to spot , the latest population estimate is considerably @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The area remains mostly a wilderness accessible largely on foot , and the forests and alpine meadows have partly recovered from too much grazing , hunting , and logging .
Ecotourism is flourishing .
This is just one small example of things going right in the environment .
Let me give you some bigger ones .
Far from starving , the seven billion people who now inhabit the planet are far better fed than the four billion of 1980 .
Famine has pretty much gone extinct in recent decades .
In the 1960s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ famine ; in the decade that just ended , tens of thousands died—and those were in countries run by callous tyrants .
Paul Ehrlich , the ecologist and bestselling author who declared in 1968 that “ [ t ] he battle to feed all of humanity is over ” and forecast that “ hundreds of millions of people will starve to death ” —and was given a genius award for it—proved to be very badly wrong .
Remarkably , this feeding of seven billion people has happened without taking much new land under @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , in many places farmland has reverted to wilderness .
In 2009 , Jesse Ausubel of Rockefeller University calculated that thanks to more farmers getting access to better fertilizers , pesticides , and biotechnology , the area of land needed to produce a given quantity of food—averaged for all crops—was 65 percent less than in 1961 .
As a result , an area the size of India will be freed up by mid-century .
That is an enormous boost for wildlife .
National parks and other protected areas have expanded steadily as well @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on the whole , brought new problems of pollution in their wake .
Quite the reverse .
The replacement of pesticides like DDT with much less harmful ones that do not persist in the environment and accumulate up the food chain , in addition to advances in biotechnology , has allowed wildlife to begin to recover .
In the part of northern England where I live , otters have returned to the rivers , and hawks , kites , ospreys , and falcons to the skies , largely thanks to the elimination of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are grown—not in the European Union—there has been a 37 percent reduction in the use of insecticides , as shown by a recent study done at Gottingen University .
One of the extraordinary features of the past 40 years has been the reappearance of wildlife that was once seemingly headed for extinction .
Bald eagles have bounced back so spectacularly that they have been taken off the endangered list .
Deer and beavers have spread into the suburbs of cities , followed by coyotes , bears , and even wolves .
The wolf @ @ @ @ @ @ @ France , and even parts of the heavily populated Netherlands .
Estuaries have been cleaned up so that fish and birds have recolonized rivers like the Thames .
Here ’ s a question I put to schoolchildren when I get the chance : Why is the wolf population increasing , the lion decreasing , and the tiger now holding its own ?
The answer is simple : Wolves live in rich countries , lions in poor countries , and tigers in middle-income countries .
It turns out that we conservationists were wrong to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Prosperity is the best thing that can happen to a country ’ s wildlife .
As people get richer , they can afford to buy electricity rather than cut wood , buy chicken rather than hunt bushmeat , or get a job in a town rather than try to scratch a living from a patch of land .
They can also stop worrying that their children will starve and start to care about the environment .
In country after country , first in Asia , then in Latin America , and now increasingly @ @ @ @ @ @ @ leading to environmental gains has swiftly delivered a turning point in the fortunes of wild ecosystems .
Overall , therefore , the number of trees in the world is steadily increasing .
A studypublished by NASA and the University of Maryland in 2018 examined satellite data and found that global increases in tree cover have more than offset losses in tree cover over the past 35 years .
This is not just because of growing plantations of timber crops ; most of it is natural regeneration .
Nor is this happening only in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ tropical countries are reforesting as well .
If you had told me in 1980 that this would happen , I would not have believed you .
In 2013 , I caught wind of an interesting study being done by NASA in conjunction with Boston and Beijing Universities .
A team of researchers had found a way of measuring the quantity of green vegetation on the surface of the planet using satellite data .
It was increasing : There were more green leaves each year .
I published an article on this phenomenon of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ vilified for my impertinence in departing from the pessimistic script .
But in fact , it had been clear for some years that the carbon dioxide levels measured on top of a mountain in Hawaii , though increasing year over year , were also rising and falling with the seasons more than they once did , implying there was more growth of green leaves in the northern hemisphere summers .
In 2016 , the same team published a paperconfirming that global greening was occurring and speculating about the cause .
Although the press @ @ @ @ @ @ @ me—by name !
—for taking any comfort from this fact , it quoted the lead author , Zaichin Zhu of Beijing University , saying that the greening over the past 30 years was equivalent to adding a new continent covered in green vegetation twice the size of the United States .
Global greening is occurring in all ecosystems , including rainforests , tundras , and croplands , and it is particularly strong in the arid areas of the planet .
By analyzing the patterns of this greening , Zhu and his colleagues were @ @ @ @ @ @ @ happening .
Some of it was due to the use of fertilizer , some to increased rainfall caused by the slight warming of the seas , and some to reforestation .
But the greatest cause , responsible for 70 percent of the greening , was the increase in carbon dioxide in the atmosphere as a result of burning fossil fuels .
Carbon dioxide is the raw food that plants use , with water , to make carbohydrates and thence proteins and fats .
This CO2-fertilization effect was well known in principle , thanks @ @ @ @ @ @ @ greenhouses , and the open-air over many years .
Indeed , commercial greenhouses purchase carbon dioxide to pump over tomato plants to encourage them to grow faster .
But this was the first time it had been measured on a global scale .
Another studypublished this year confirmed , “ the rising atmospheric CO2 concentration as the dominant driver ” of a 31 percent increase in global terrestrial gross primary production since 1900 .
Global greening means that there is more food every year for caterpillars , antelopes , woodpeckers , and countless @ @ @ @ @ @ @ need less land to feed ourselves than we would otherwise have needed by now .
Of all the things that I did not expect in 1980 , this is surely one of the most remarkable .


climatedepot--2020-07-10--‘Climate Breakdown’? How To Create Scary Climate Models (And Headlines)

Shock , horror : According to the WMO and the Met Office , there is a 3-20 % chance of the forthcoming five-year global temperature average exceeding 1.5°C .
There are several definitions of hustle .
One of them is to use forceful actions to promote an action or point of view .
It ’ s everywhere of course and in all aspects of climate change .
It ’ s all too apparent when scientists want grants , jobs , and headlines .
It ’ s no new discovery that combining hustle with statistics can get you anywhere .
The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Organisation ( WMO ) , prepared by the UK Met Office , that there is a “ growing chance ” of the world exceeding the “ Paris threshold ” of 1.5°C in global temperature above pre-industrial levels is a prime example of this .
It says there is a 20 % chance that one of the next five years will exceed 1.5°C and a 70 % chance a single month will during the same period .
Another way of saying this , statistically equally justifiable , is that there is an 80 % @ @ @ @ @ @ @ not increase statistically significantly over the next five years .
There are no headlines saying that !
Just for a moment think what this means .
If there is no significant change in global average temperature by 2025 , we will be able to look back thirty years ( the official definition of climate ) and note that the two major warming episodes , 1998 and 2015 , were both due to natural climatic variability , in this case , two El Nino events .
In many ways , the WMO report is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ natural climatic variability than it is to long-term anthropogenic warming .
What ’ s more , this forecast has been tested by reversing the direction of time in the computer models and seeing if it successfully “ predicts ” the past .
One would expect any model to be good at this because past observations have already been incorporated into the model which has evolved to have no serious disagreements with it .
In such a complicated system as the climate – and the WMO report actually stresses the uncertain and poorly understood @ @ @ @ @ @ @ into the future is an entirely different thing .
In other reports of the same WMO document , the statistics get even more suspicious .
One says that there is a 3 % chance of the forthcoming five-year global temperature average exceeding 1.5°C .
Three percent implies a very accurate predictive ability , especially when it is accompanied by no error statement .
Again , any journalist looking at these figures objectively would find that the real story is that there is a 97 % chance that the average of the next five @ @ @ @ @ @ @ it is now .
And yet the Ecologist websiteproclaims we have five years to climate breakdown .
A story like this is a kind of litmus test for journalists .
They can take the press release and wave it through to their website with minor changes and supporting statements .
Or they could look at the statistics and — how can I say this — ask questions .
I have a feeling that the era of unquestioning journalist environmental advocacy which began in the early years of this century , is gradually fading @ @ @ @ @ @ @ be guided by the empirical data and the messages it has been sending us for years ; we do not understand natural climatic variability ; our models are nowhere near as accurate as some maintain and forecasts of future temperatures more often than not end in ignominy .

Thank you for being patient. We are doing some work on the site and will be back shortly.


climatedepot--2020-07-10--PANIC! TIME Mag Says 2020 Is ‘One Last Chance’ To Save Planet – ‘There’s no more time to wait’

It ’ s the end of civilization .
Again .
Eco-extremists in the liberal media can ’ t even give themselves a 10-year gap for their end-of-the-world predictions .
The latest Time magazine cover declared that 2020 is our last , best chance to save the planet .
Run for your lives !
Time announced the new cover on Twitter .
The cover article was written by Justin Worland , the same author who co-wrote the “ TIME 2019 Person of the Year : Greta Thunberg.
” That piece claimed climate activist Thunberg was “ a pool of resolve at @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Emphasis added . ]
In Time ’ s latest drivel , Worland exploited the coronavirus to push a climate change Armageddon scenario : 2020 looks like the year when an unknown virus spun out of control , killed hundreds of thousands and altered the way we live day to day .
In the future , we may look back at 2020 as the year we decided to keep driving off the climate cliff–or to take the last exit , [ emphasis added . ]
Worland also quipped how for the past three years @ @ @ @ @ @ @ has largely tried to ignore Trump ’ s retrograde position on climate , hoping 2020 would usher in a new President with a new position , re-enabling the cooperation between nations needed to prevent the worst ravages of climate change.
” But , “ there ’ s no more time to wait , ” Worland fretted .
[ Emphasis added . ]
Still , Worland was sure to advocate on behalf of a Joe Biden presidency : “ [ T ] he future of U.S. emissions will likely fall to the winner in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ former Vice President and presumptive Democratic presidential nominee , is well aware of the role the pandemic recovery will play in shaping emissions.
” Worland even blamed the U.S. for the alleged “ climate catastrophe ” he says we ’ re facing .
He wrote that “ We find ourselves on the brink of climate catastrophe in large part because of the decisions made during a past crisis .
As the world came out of the Great Depression and World War II , the U.S. launched a rapid bid to remake the global @ @ @ @ @ @ @ added . ]
Sounds remarkably close to when Timemagazine whined in 1992 : “ Nature has a cure for everything , except the spread of Western civilization.
” Stoking fears about the world rising past 2℃ , “ where the effects of climate change go from advancing gradually to changing dramatically overnight , reshaping the planet , ” Worland said , “ we need to cut emissions in half by 2030.
” [ Emphasis added . ]
Worland wrote that “ [ t ] o achieve a 1.5°C goal without creating mass disruption @ @ @ @ @ @ @ economy , moving it away from fossil-fuel extraction slowly but surely .
Scientists and economists agree this is the last opportunity we have to do so.
” [ Emphasis added . ]
That ’ s interesting , considering Microsoft co-founder and liberal billionaire Bill Gates had said in September 2019 that fossil-fuel “ divestment , to date , probably has reduced about zero tonnes of emissions.
” Worland ’ s latest edition to Time ’ s eco-extremism is just as loopy as when Timecontributor Eugene Linden suggested in 2000 that the threat of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ missiles .
Or how about when Time magazine ’ s editors warned in its 1989 “ Planet of the Year ” issue that “ [ u ] nless the growth in the world population is slowed , it will be impossible to make serious progression on any environmental issue .
”


climatedepot--2020-07-10--NASA has gone ‘full wokeness’: Watch: Morano on TV rails on NASA for linking ‘white supremacy’ to ‘c

NASA has gone ‘full wokeness’: Watch: Morano on TV rails on NASA for linking ‘white supremacy’ to ‘climate change’ – Rebel News w/ Ezra Levant

“ Hotbed of radicals ” at NASA : Marc Morano with Ezra Levant On last night ’ s episode of @ @ @ @ @ Marc Morano of ClimateDepot.com joined me to talk about a NASA scientist named Dr. Kate @ @ @ @ @ “ climate change ” to “ white supremacy.
” “ What ’ s happened here @ @ @ @ @ the climate debate .
I gave a talk up in Canada last November , in @ @ @ @ @ laid out all of these identity politics which had invaded , and now with the @ @ @ @ @ imagine the climate activists and scientists are just doubling on.
” WATCH the clip and @ @ @ @ @ Kate Marvel is coming out with “ full wokeness.
” NASA scientist Dr. Kate Marvel @ @ @ @ @ to ‘ white supremacy ’ – ‘ We ’ ll never head off climate catastrophe @ @ @ @ @ – Calls for climate & racial ‘ justice ’


climatedepot--2020-07-11--Faith-based climate ‘solutions’: Mandate now, wait 30 years to see if it worked! WaPo: ‘Even if we s

Faith-based climate ‘solutions’: Mandate now, wait 30 years to see if it worked! WaPo: ‘Even if we start to fix climate change, the proof may not show up for 30 years’

The results lend added perspective to the relatively minor drop in emissions that occurred due to worldwide shutdowns in response to the coronavirus pandemic — a drop that appears unlikely to have much effect on the planet ’ s overall temperature .
“ This is a big ship .
We ’ ve given a lot of speed to a big heavy system , ” said Bjorn Samset , a researcher with the Center for International Climate Research in Oslo who conducted the research in Nature Communications with two colleagues , Jan Fuglestvedt and Marianne Lund .
“ We have never @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and we have certainly never cooled it.
” Samset said the delayed benefits of climate action could complicate the push to quickly wean the world off fossil fuels , in part because politicians and policymakers might have a difficult time showing that measures to combat climate change are making a discernible difference in the short term — even if emissions cuts help stave off future warming .
“ It ’ s one of the things that makes climate change so difficult , ” he said .
“ You ’ re looking at an @ @ @ @ @ @ @ So the best thing you can hope for is to stay at the status quo.
” But the difficulty of heading off climate change has not prevented many world leaders — and growing armies of young activists — from pushing for more ambitious action .
Nearly every nation in the world has agreed , at least on paper , to collectively work to slow warming .
And leaders around the globe have continued to press for immediate changes , even if the payoff takes time .
“ Science tells us that [ on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ at least 3 degrees Celsius of global heating by the end of the century .
I will not be there , but my granddaughters will .
And your grandchildren , too , ” United Nations Secretary General António Guterres told a gathering of international leaders in New York in the fall .
“ I will not be a silent witness to the crime of dooming our present and destroying their right to a sustainable future .
It is my obligation — our obligation — to do everything to stop the climate crisis before @ @ @ @ @ @ @ would need to happen year after year for rising global temperatures to level off .
A United Nations report in the fall found that the world ’ s emissions would need to shrink by 7.6 percent each year to meet the most ambitious aims of the Paris climate agreement , which has the support of nearly every nation except the United States under President Trump .
So far , any impact of the pandemic on the globe ’ s temperature is unclear .
This year could very well be the hottest on record @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to rise relatively rapidly .
Some regions saw a noticeable decline in air pollution , but that could prove temporary .
“ We have to curb our expectations a little bit , ” Samset said .
“ Luckily , we are moving to an era where we will see cuts in emissions .
But we also realize that people are expecting to see some return on these efforts .
This will impact people ’ s livelihoods .
What do we get in return ?
We get reduced global warming at some point , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 15 , 20 years — longer if we are unlucky.
” He pointed to well-established climate models showing the likely trajectory of the Earth ’ s temperature over time if humans drastically reduce the burning of fossil fuels — and if they fail to do so .
In both situations , a certain amount of expected warming is already baked into the system .
“ The idea that we would not be able to statistically detect the influence of policy on global mean temperatures for many decades is the sort of thing that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ working climate scientists , ” he said , “ but not well understood by many members of the general public.
” In the new study , Samset and his colleagues used climate change models and statistical tests to determine when a clear decline in the pace of warming might be apparent after emissions are cut .
For the leading greenhouse gas , carbon dioxide , they found that if emissions are cut 5 percent annually starting this year , it will probably be 2044 before any impact is statistically significant .
Even with @ @ @ @ @ @ @ emissions , the study found that proof of a change would probably not emerge until 2033 .
The research also found that the best option for meaningful change would be tackling all drivers of global warming simultaneously .
Cutting carbon dioxide , methane , nitrous oxide , black carbon and other pollutants all at once could yield results by 2040 , Samset said .
Countries around the world have agreed in principle to slash their emissions over time as part of the Paris climate accord , but it remains uncertain whether there will @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the impacts aren ’ t immediately visible .
Climate change doubters immediately seized on the issue to question the severity and pace of global warming .
Some scientists who do think the warming rate slowed point to natural changes in the Pacific Ocean — in other words , the natural variability of the climate , which can temporarily blunt the warming trend .


climatedepot--2020-07-12--Stop Pension Funds Gambling on Energy Fads

The ESG Push to Gamble Pension Funds on Climate Concerns Instead of joining the financial revolution geared toward environmental , social , and governance ( ESG ) that many experts believe is coming down the pike ( with or without the cooperation of the United States ) the Trump administration has actively fought against this likely inevitability .
A new proposed regulation from the United States Department of Labor would explicitly bar the department from taking ESG into consideration in decision making concerning U.S. employer-provided pension funds .
Ostensibly , this move is because the government doesn ’ t believe @ @ @ @ @ @ @ managers are doing a good job , but many critics see this as a blatant attempt to redirect investment dollars towards fossil fuels , which are increasingly falling out of favor with investors .
[ Note : The author ’ s bias shows , favoring subsidized wind and solar enterprises over oil and gas companies that provide reliable energy powering modern civilization , reliable returns and tax revenues . ]
This week Bloomberg Green reported that in this new proposed ruling , “ the language reaffirms the standard interpretation of fiduciary guidelines that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ considered in the management of U.S. employer-provided pension funds ; ‘ non-pecuniary goals , ’ for example relating to political or public policy , should not guide pension investments.
” As Bloomberg Green points out in the report , “ The timing is ironic , coming as the fossil fuel industry begins to confront existential questions about its near-term future .
It would almost be amusing if it wasn ’ t for the fear , uncertainty , and doubt the proposal leaves in its wake.
” For Balance , Consider How Risky are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ at CFACT Reporting renewable energy risks .
Excerpts in italics with my bolds .
The whole thrust of the ESG campaign is to burden oil , gas and coal companies with additional reporting and scrutiny regarding hypothetical global warming impacts and to downgrade their worth in investors ’ eyes .
Driessen correctly points to the risk of renewable energy projects collapsing when public support and tax dollars are withdrawn , as is already happening in some European countries .
If efficient energy companies must disclose climate-related financial risks , so should renewables .


climatedepot--2020-07-13--Build a climate wall! Greta Thunberg: ‘The UN predicts that by the year 2050 there will be up to 1 b

Build a climate wall! Greta Thunberg: ‘The UN predicts that by the year 2050 there will be up to 1 billion climate refugees in the world’

Greta on her arrival in NYC in September 2019 : ' I see myself everywhere .
Just the night before one of my speeches had been projected onto the facade of the UN building . '
... `` The UN predicts that by the year 2050 there will be up to 1 billion climate refugees in the world .
I wonder , what will it take for us to start facing these issues and begin to ask the uncomfortable questions ? ''
Climate Depot 's response : `` Who cares what the UN predicts by the year 2050 ? ''
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ surreal .
If the media attention was big in Europe , it ’ s nothing compared to how it is here .
A year ago the thought of seeing pictures of my dog inside the UN would have been unthinkable .
Now it ’ s nothing strange at all .
I see myself everywhere .
Just the night before one of my speeches had been projected onto the facade of the UN building .
But luckily I completely lack an interest in such things .
If you would care about this kind of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ develop a self-image that is far from sane .
It ’ s very hard to move inside the giant labyrinth of this building .
Presidents , prime ministers , kings , and princesses , all come up to me to chat .
People recognize me and suddenly see their opportunity to get a selfie which later they can post on their Instagram – with the caption # savetheplanet .
Perhaps it makes them forget the shame of their generation letting all future generations down .
I guess maybe it helps them to sleep @ @ @ @ @ @ @ sitting with the other speakers , I try to read through my speech , but I constantly get interrupted by people who want to do small talk and take selfies .
The UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres steps in .
We chat for a bit , just like I ’ ve learnt that you ’ re supposed to do .
I fill up my red water bottle and sit down again .
Then it ’ s Chancellor Angela Merkel ’ s turn to come up , congratulate , take a picture and ask @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to post it on social media .
A queue starts forming .
Jacinda Ardern , the prime minister of New Zealand , waits in line but doesn ’ t quite make it before it ’ s time for the event to start .
The annual UN General Assembly week in New York City is always a big global event , but this year it was a bit extra special since the secretary general had decided that the focus would be exclusively on the climate .
The expectations are huge .
It has been @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Almost all of the world ’ s leaders are sitting in the audience , but it ’ s only those with specific so-called “ solutions ” who have received an invitation to address the General Assembly .


climatedepot--2020-07-13--‘Incontrovertibly false’: Dr. Roger Pielke Jr. Fact checks the ‘self-appointed climate fact-checkers

‘Incontrovertibly false’: Dr. Roger Pielke Jr. Fact checks the ‘self-appointed climate fact-checkers’ & finds them DEAD WRONG –

Kerry Emanuel claims : `` Economic damage , normalized by world domestic product ... from weather-related natural disasters have been @ @ @ @ @ Pielke responds : `` This is incontrovertibly false .
Contrary to Emanuel 's claims , @ @ @ @ @ increasing greatly '' ( actually it is not even increasing ) '' In fact , @ @ @ @ @ at global economic losses after normalization ( for GDP or other factors ) has consistently @ @ @ @ @ in losses at all . ''
Emanuel also writes : `` There is strong and @ @ @ @ @ is increasing ... the incidence of strong hurricanes . ''
Pielke Jr. responds : `` @ @ @ @ @ polled its authors & concluded ( image ) no increase ( so how can there @ @ @ @ @ '' Kerry Emanuel has every right to his opinions , of course .
But he @ @ @ @ @ factual accuracy before claiming ( falsely ) that `` Michael Shellenberger 's statement is not @ @ @ @ @ patently false . ''
For @ ClimateFdbk this is easily 5 Pinocchios . ''


climatedepot--2020-07-13--NY Times Fakes a Climate Change Debate

NY Times Fakes a Climate Change Debate

The New York Times ’ Climate section is a source of continuing amusement for me .
This one made me laugh out loud .
In an exhibition of astounding audacity , the New York Times ’ Editor of the Climate Desk , Hannah Fairfield , stages what is billed as a “ debate ” about moving forward with solutions to climate change .
Let me be perfectly clear , this is a fake debate – no debate takes place .
Having given up the standards of professional journalism almost entirely , the Climate desk has moved on from misinformation , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
.
Fake Debates .
If you have one and a half hours to utterly waste , you can watch the whole thing here .
Not only does the Times falsely claim that this represents some kind of debate , they can ’ t even count to ten – there are only six guest speakers and Hannah….and when I attended elementary school in the 1950s , six plus one made seven ( it may be the “ new math ” , similar to that being used to count “ New Covid Cases ” @ @ @ @ @ @ @ else in the video is true either .
We do get good insight into why the New York Times publishes so many Climate stories that are absolutely nutty [ my psychiatrist friend assures me that this is a perfectly acceptable term in the mental health field ] .
Hannah Fairfield , the Editor of the Climate Desk , states in her introduction : “ Our mission is help readers understand their world and how Climate Change touches all parts of it .
Like the science of Corona-virus , the science of Climate Change @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , humans are the cause of it , and a failure to act today will deeply affect the future of the Earth.
” “ The devastation of Covid-19 has forced change for all of us .
Much of it has been swift and startling .
To combat corona-virus , governments poured money into rescue .
Companies adapted their goals and production ; central banks permitted exceptional stimulus packages , and societies mobilized to shield the most vulnerable .
Have these dramatic actions given us a blueprint for mobilizing action against Climate Change ?
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ path forward that puts accelerating Climate Change solutions squarely in the middle ?
We know that Climate Change requires exponential solutions and that ’ s what we ’ ll focus on today .
The global response to corona-virus can be the beginning of the economic , technological and society [ sic ] transition that will allow us to dramatically reduce carbon emissions in the next 30 years , helping us to avoid the worst effects of Climate Change , and limiting the global temperature rise in line with the goals of the Paris @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the Times ’ Climate desk thinks its mission is to produce propaganda supporting just one side of the real climate debate and a rather radical version at that , one which goes beyond even IPCC memes .
The latest version of an acceptable editorial narrative on climate change is that “ the governments of the world took over ordering individual people ’ s lives and destroying the economy for their own purposes – presented to the public as protecting them from Covid-19 – and so governments could , should and must do the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Change ” .
The apparent theory is that as government actions regarding Covid have already wrecked so much of the world economy – wrecking it even more in the battle against ( mostly imaginary ) future climate change is a “ no brainer ” ( well , it is , for those with no brain or suffering a total lack of Critical Thinking Skills and/or those whose own personas have been overwhelmed by GroupThink – h/t Judith Curry ) .
Hannah Fairfield seemingly went to great lengths to make sure that her panel @ @ @ @ @ @ @ would all agree with her stated purposes .
The panel consists of : Christiana Figueres — Introduced as the Co-Founder of Global Optimism Better known as the Former Executive Secretary of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change ( UNFCCC ) Bertrand Piccard — of the Solar Impulse Foundation and the World Alliance for Clean Technologies Alexandra Palt — L ’ oreal Group — Chief Corporate Responsibility Officer — included , as the PR wonk of a beauty products company , I suppose , because appearances are so very important .
“ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is a center for planning and development within the MIT Department of Urban Studies and Planning “ .
They apparently focus a lot on painting murals on buildings….. “ promoting democratic engagement and urban sustainability in communities facing disruptive moments , we strive to produce shared wealth and collective well-being.
” Johan Rockström — Director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research ( PIK ) Those familiar with some of these names might guess that this massively stacked panel recommends that governments take over private industry and private lives and Save The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s introduction is so full of nonsense that I could have written a whole essay on it alone : • The Science of Corona-virus is anything but “ very clear ” – the medical world barely understands what it is , where it came from , how it spreads , why it infects some without symptoms and kills others , and is at an impasse on treatment .
Early and preventative treatments have been politicized out of use in some countries while being front-line successful treatments in others .
• Climate Science @ @ @ @ @ @ @ – “ dangerously warming ” ?
?
?
“ humans are the cause of it ” ?
?
?
• “ …societies mobilized to shield the most vulnerable.
” ?
?
?
King Cuomo ( governor of the State of New York ) sent sick elderly patients to die by the hundreds in death-filled nursing homes while keeping kids , who are the safest group , out of schools and confined at home .
• “ We know that Climate Change requires exponential solutions….
” ?
?
?
What , in heaven ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ” be ?
Enough , what the world does not need is destructive Covid Madness Solutions to be added on to what are already societally-suicidal Climate Change Madness proposals .
I can only hope that sanity to returns to our local , regional , state , national and international leaders before they do permanent damage to the great enterprise of human civilization .


climatedepot--2020-07-13--Physicist Challenges the CO2 Global Warming Hypothesis: A New Take on the Carbon Cycle

Central to the dubious belief that humans make a substantial contribution to climate change is the CO global warming hypothesis .
The hypothesis is that observed global warming – currently about 1 degree Celsius ( 1.8 degrees Fahrenheit ) since the preindustrial era – has been caused primarily by human emissions of CO and other greenhouse gases into the atmosphere .
The CO hypothesis is based on the apparent correlation between rising worldwide temperatures and the CO level in the lower atmosphere , which has gone up by approximately 47 % over the same period .
In this series of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ several recent research papers that challenge the hypothesis .
The first is a 2020 preprint by U.S. physicist and research meteorologist Ed Berry , who has a PhD in atmospheric physics .
Berry disputes the claim of the IPCC ( Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change ) that human emissions have caused all of the CO increase above its preindustrial level in 1750 of 280 ppm ( parts per million ) , which is one way of expressing the hypothesis .
The IPCC ’ s CO model maintains that natural emissions of CO since @ @ @ @ @ @ @ level of natural CO in the atmosphere at 280 ppm , even as the world has warmed .
But Berry ’ s alternative model concludes that only 25 % of the current increase in atmospheric CO is due to humans and that the other 75 % comes from natural sources .
Both Berry and the IPCC agree that the preindustrial CO level of 280 ppm had natural origins .
If Berry is correct , however , the CO global warming hypothesis must be discarded and another explanation found for global warming .
Natural @ @ @ @ @ @ @ cycle that accounts for the exchange of carbon between the earth ’ s land masses , atmosphere and oceans ; it includes fauna and flora , as well as soil and sedimentary rocks .
Human CO from burning fossil fuels constitutes less than 5 % of total CO emissions into the atmosphere , the remaining emissions being natural .
Atmospheric CO is absorbed by vegetation during photosynthesis , and by the oceans through precipitation .
The oceans also release CO as the temperature climbs .
Berry argues that the IPCC treats human and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the human carbon cycle from the natural carbon cycle .
This , he says , is unphysical and violates the Equivalence Principle of physics .
Berry uses physics to create a carbon cycle model that simulates the IPCC ’ s natural carbon cycle , and then utilizes his model to calculate what the IPCC human carbon cycle should be .
Berry ’ s physics model computes the flow or exchange of carbon between land , atmosphere , surface ocean and deep ocean reservoirs , based on the hypothesis that outflow of carbon from @ @ @ @ @ @ @ level or mass in that reservoir divided by its residence time .
The following figure shows the distribution of human carbon among the four reservoirs in 2005 , when the atmospheric CO level was 393 ppm , as calculated by the IPCC ( left panel ) and Berry ( right panel ) .


climatedepot--2020-07-13--‘USA was hotter in the past’ – NOAA data finds of the 50 U.S. state all-time record high temps, 23 w

‘USA was hotter in the past’ – NOAA data finds of the 50 U.S. state all-time record high temps, 23 were set during the 1930s & 36 occurred prior to 1960′

Highest U.S .
Temperatures on Record by State I have occasionally posted about the State Climate Extremes Committee in the US , which verifies and maintains data on record meteorological observations on a State by State basis .
Unlike the Met Office , the SCEC is extremely diligent in checking new claims for record temperatures , daily rainfall and so on , including site visits and rigorous checking .
Details of how they operate is here .
One particular requirement is this : One wonders whether the SCEC would approve a rainfall record half way up a mountain !
( @ @ @ @ @ @ @ temperature ) .
We actually do not have to wonder , because the list of records shows this not to be the case .
Whilst there are some records in highland areas , these all appear to be in habited locations .
Below is the distribution of record high temperatures , and I think most of us are familiar with the preponderance of records in the 1930s .
Remember , these numbers include ties , so from a statistical point of view should be evenly distributed across time .
( Ties , by @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are not counted ) .
Handily , Electroverse have written a transcript of these records : The hottest day ever recorded in Alabama was the 112F ( 44.4C ) back on September 6 , 1925 , in Centreville ( about 50 miles south of Birmingham ) .
June 27 , 1915 saw 100F ( 37.8C ) engulf Fort Yukon , located north of the Arctic Circle .
128F ( 53.3C ) hit Lake Havasu City , located on the western edge of Arizona , on June 29 , 1994 .
Ozark , located @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ( 48.9C ) on August 10 , 1936 .
Back on July 10 , 1913 , Greenland Ranch , now Furnace Creek Ranch , in California ’ s Death Valley peaked at a scalding 134F ( 56.7C ) — a temp that to this day remains the United States ’ hottest on record .
Colorado reached 114F ( 45.6F ) twice — once on July 1 , 1933 , in Las Animas , and again in Sedgwick on July 11 , 1954 .
Connecticut has touched 106F ( 41.1C ) twice — in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in July , 1995 in Danbury .
Georgia ’ s witnessed 112F ( 44.4C ) twice — once in Greenville in August of 1983 , and once in Louisville in July 1952 .
The highest temp in Hawaii is the 100F ( 37.8C ) in Pahala in April , 1931 .
116F ( 46.7C ) was registered on July 14 , 1936 , in St. Joseph County .
The hottest temperature ever recorded in Iowa was in Keokuk — the 118F ( 47.8C ) set back on July 20 , 1934 .
Kansas @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , both times in 1936 — on July 18 in Fredonia , and six days later in Alton .
North Bridgton hit 105F ( 40.6C ) twice in the same week — first , Independence Day in 1911 , and then 6 days later .
Maryland has seen 109F on four separate occasions — twice in August 1918 in Cumberland , once in Frederick in July 1936 , and once way back on July 3 , 1898 , in Boettcherville .
Stanwood was hit by a toasty 112F ( 44.4F ) on July @ @ @ @ @ @ @ by an all-time high of 118F ( 47.8C ) on July 14 , 1954 .
117F ( 47.2C ) was hit on two occasions in Montana — once in Glendive in July 1983 , and once near Medicine Lake in July 1937 .
Three places in Nebraska have hit 118F ( 47.8C ) — Geneva on July 15 , 1934 , and both Hartington and Minden during the same week in July 1936 .
The Waste Isolation Pilot Plant recorded the hottest day in New Mexico ’ s history — the 122F ( @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Gallipolis , located on the Ohio River , reached 113F ( 45C ) on July 21 , 1934 .
120F ( 48.9C ) has been reached four times Oklahoma , all in the year 1936 — once in Poteau , twice in Altus , and once in Alva .
1898 is the record-holder for Oregon .
The mercury hit 119F ( 48.3C ) twice that year— in Prineville , and in downtown Pendleton .
For two days in a row , July 9 and 10 , 1936 , Phoenixville hit 111F ( @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ( 48.9C ) twice — once on July 5 , 1936 in Gann Valley , and again on July 15 , 2006 in Fort Pierre .
Perryville on the Tennesee River hit 113F ( 45C ) twice in 1930 .
The lone star state has touched 120F ( 48.9C ) twice — once on August 12 , 1936 , in Seymour , and once on June 28 , 1994 , in Monahans .
The town of Vernon reached 107F ( 41.7C ) on July 7 , 1912 .
Virginia has hit 100F ( @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the first week of July 1900 in Columbia , and once on July 15 , 1954 , in Balcony Falls , Glasgow .
Washington State has reached 118F ( 47.8C ) twice —once on Ice Harbor Dam near Ash on August 5 , 1961 , and once in Wahluke on July 24 , 1928 .
West Virginia hit an all-time high of 112F ( 44.4C ) on two occasions — in Moorefield on August 4 , 1930 and in Martinsburg on July 10 , 1936 .
Wisconsin Dells on the Wisconsin River hit @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on July 13 , 1936 .
115F ( 46.1C ) was reached twice in Wyoming , once in Basin on August 8 , 1983 and once on the Diversion Dam by Wind River Reservation on July 15 , 1988 .
This raw data speaks for itself — the United States was hotter in the past .
According to NOAA ’ s own data , of the 50 U.S. state all-time record high temperatures , 23 were set during the 1930s , while 36 occurred prior to 1960 .
Heatwaves ?
!
Book reveals @ @ @ @ @ @ @ recorded their hottest temperature prior to 1955 ’


climatedepot--2020-07-13--Green Activist Michael Shellenberger Comes Clean On Climate Disinformation

Mr. Shellenberger ’ s honesty is refreshing .
To solve environmental problems , the public and policymakers need honest and nuanced data , not doomsday predictions intended to push an agenda through fear and misinformation .
A well-known environmentalist has asked forgiveness for blowing concerns about global warming out of proportion .
His candor speaks volumes about our current political discourse .
On behalf of environmentalists everywhere , I would like to formally apologize for the climate scare we created over the last 30 years , ” Michael Shellenberger wrote last month .
“ Climate change is happening .
It @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the world .
It ’ s not even our most serious environmental problem.
” Mr. Shellenberger may not be a household name , but his credentials as an environmental expert are top-notch .
As he wrote , he ’ s been asked “ to provide objective expert testimony ” by Congress .
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change invited him “ to serve as an expert reviewer of its next assessment report.
” He ’ s no right-winger .
He once fundraised on behalf of the Rainforest Action Network .
He once “ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the Sandinista socialist revolution.
” He worked with the Obama administration to invest tens of billions of dollars into renewables .
Despite harboring concerns about overwrought rhetoric frequently spewed by global warming alarmists , he stayed silent out of embarrassment and fear .
I remained quiet about the climate disinformation campaign because I was afraid of losing friends and funding , ” Mr. Shellenberger wrote .
“ The few times I summoned the courage to defend climate science from those who misrepresent it I suffered harsh consequences .
And so I mostly stood @ @ @ @ @ @ @ my fellow environmentalists terrified the public.
” That changed last year when the alarmism reached a fever pitch .
Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez said the world would “ end in 12 years.
” A green journalist , Bill McKibben , said climate change would “ wipe out civilizations.
” Seeing the fear this caused around the world and in his own teenage daughter and her friends , he decided to speak out .
Here are some of the findings he ’ s sharing that fly in the face of environmentalist dogma .
For one @ @ @ @ @ @ @ natural disasters worse.
” For instance , wildfires have gone down by a quarter since 2003 .
He attributed larger and more dangerous fires in Australia and Canada to “ the build-up of wood fuel and more houses near forests , not climate change.
” He believes the key to reducing carbon emissions isn ’ t green energy but more nuclear power .


climatedepot--2020-07-13--WaPo warns of ‘global warming’s’ impact on medication: ‘Some drugs, taken when it’s hot, can provoke

WaPo warns of ‘global warming’s’ impact on medication: ‘Some drugs, taken when it’s hot, can provoke serious, sometimes life-threatening reactions’

WaPo : Some drugs , taken when it ’ s hot , can provoke serious , sometimes life-threatening reactions .
These include drugs widely used for many common conditions , including blood pressure , asthma , depression and allergies , among others .
When the temperature rises , they can impair the body ’ s ability to cope with heat .
... “ Heat waves are getting worse with climate change , ” Bernstein says .
“ We need to be mindful when medications mix with heat .
Too much heat can make an otherwise safe and effective drug dangerous.
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ dangerous interaction between drugs and heat , and experts say more are needed .
“ Due to the lack of research in the field , it is impossible to estimate the scale of the problem , ” Zhang says .
“ However , it is for sure that climate change will bring more health problems due to medications .
Older people will be especially vulnerable because they usually take more than one drug.
” ... Bernstein agrees on the need for more research .
“ We would be able to do much more @ @ @ @ @ @ @ we spent a little more time and money figuring this out , ” he says .


climatedepot--2020-07-14--Biden: We’re down to 9 years to save Earth from global warming

Science doesnt say we have `` 9 years left '' to save the planet from climate change .
The 'years left ' narrative is a complete fraud .
Flashback : Earth ‘ serially doomed ’ : The official history of climate ‘ Tipping Points ’ began in 1864 – A new ‘ global warming ’ 12-year deadline from Rep. Ocasio-Cortez Climate Tipping Points date back to at least 1864 “ As early as 1864 George Perkins Marsh , sometimes said to be the father of American ecology , warned that the earth was ‘ fast becoming an unfit home for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and that unless men changed their ways it would be reduced ‘ to such a condition of impoverished productiveness , of shattered surface , of climatic excess , as to threaten the depravation , barbarism , and perhaps even extinction of the species.
’ ” —MIT professor Leo Marx Earth “ Serially Doomed ” Perhaps the best summary of the tipping-point phenomenon comes from UK scientist Philip Stott .
“ In essence , the Earth has been given a 10-year survival warning regularly for the last fifty or so years .
We have @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
“ Our post-modern period of climate change angst can probably be traced back to the late-1960s , if not earlier .
By 1973 , and the ‘ global cooling ’ scare , it was in full swing , with predictions of the imminent collapse of the world within ten to twenty years , exacerbated by the impacts of a nuclear winter .
”


climatedepot--2020-07-14--‘Cow farts and burps’: Burger King goes full climate silly: ‘We’re working to change our cows’ diet

‘Cow farts and burps’: Burger King goes full climate silly: ‘We’re working to change our cows’ diet and help fight climate change’

Burger King : “ Cow farts and burps are no laughing matter .
That ’ s why we ’ re working to change our cows ’ diet and help fight climate change.
” Burger King will begin selling Whoppers sourced from cows that belch out less methane as the fast-food industry grapples with a questionable sustainability record .
The chain , owned by Restaurant Brands International Inc. , will debut a sandwich Tuesday made from cattle raised on a diet supplemented with lemongrass , the company said .
That ’ s expected to cut greenhouse gas emissions from those animals @ @ @ @ @ @ @ menu offering comes as a growing number of major food brands reckon with their large role in contributing to global emissions .
Meat producers and retailers have been under growing pressure from investors and consumers to cut the climate impact of their products .
“ To make a real impact in the world , we need the whole industry to change , ” Fernando Machado , Burger King ’ s global chief marketing officer , said in an interview .
“ Just offering at Burger King is kind of like a drop in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ low-methane beef at scale across a fast-food empire are daunting .
Meat suppliers and retailers will need to be ready to pay up more for that sort of beef .
Any feed supplements or modified diets are likely to carry extra costs for cattle farmers who are already grappling with squeezed incomes , a problem compounded by the coronavirus pandemic .
Machado didn ’ t say how much the lower-methane beef would cost Burger King , which doesn ’ t plan to charge more for the limited-time product .
The burger will be @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , New York , Austin , Portland and Los Angeles while stocks last , the company said .
It ’ s also partnering with suppliers in Latin America and Europe to expand on the effort .
This isn ’ t the first green initiative taken by the company , which sells meatless burgers under a partnership with Impossible Foods Inc .
Still , the restaurant doesn ’ t disclose its target for cutting emissions , making the impact of this latest step difficult to gauge .
Green product releases , meanwhile , can @ @ @ @ @ @ @ giving them a sales and public-relations boost .
While initial experiments have shown that Burger King ’ s modified diet cuts methane emissions by an average of 33 % , the method is still pending validation from an academic peer review after initial experiments .
If sold on a mass scale , lower-emission beef may require the right certification to win consumer trust .
The company said it will openly share its cow diet formula to convince others to follow suit .
Meat-sourcing companies are far behind on globally accepted corporate sustainability initiatives @ @ @ @ @ @ @ yet disclosed the emissions the company and its products produce , according to FAIRR , an initiative set up by environmentally minded investors .
Disclosures are key to assessing whether any of the company ’ s green initiatives lead to promised emissions cuts or not .
Researchers and companies have explored a range of feed supplements , vaccines and diets that would help cut methane emitted by ruminants ’ stomachs .
But so far it has been tricky because microbes responsible for creating methane have shown resistance to some methods , while other @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
One U.K.-based startup is even working on methane-eating masks for cows .
Even if successful , modifying diets only partly cuts emissions , raising the need for other methods .
Some companies have pushed into a type of farming known as regenerative agriculture that aims to cull carbon ’ s release into the air through biodiversity and soil health .
General Mills Inc. aims to convert 1 million acres of land into regenerative farming by 2030 .


climatedepot--2020-07-14--India’s Rice Harvest May Hit Record High After Above Average Monsoon Season

Indian farmers have planted 12 million hectares with summer-sown rice , preliminary farm ministry data for this year showed , up 25 % from last year as robust monsoon rains encouraged the expansion of acreage .
Buoyed by the plentiful rains , rice farmers are likely to harvest a record crop and step up overseas sales from the world ’ s biggest exporter of the grain .
Farmers start planting rice , corn , cotton , soybeans , sugarcane and peanuts among other crops from June 1 , when monsoon rains reach India .
Nearly half of India ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ through July .
The Ministry of Agriculture & Farmers ’ Welfare issued preliminary figures for planting from June 1-July 10 , which are subject to revision as it gathers more information from state governments .
The area planted with cotton was at 10.5 million hectares , up from 7.8 million hectares at the same time last year .
Sowing of oilseeds was at 13.9 million hectares , compared with 7.5 million hectares at the same time in 2019 .
Planting of pulses touched 6.4 million hectares , sharply higher than 2.4 million hectares @ @ @ @ @ @ @ received 14 % higher than average rain since the monsoon season began on June 1 .
This summer looks like following last year ’ s , which also had well above average rainfall .
The Indian Monsoon is heavily influenced by ENSO , with recent droughts all coinciding with El Ninos .
Over the longer timeframe , there is little or no trend at all in Monsoon Rainfall .


climatedepot--2020-07-14--A Busy Hurricane Season? Maybe, But It Won’t Be Due To Global Warming

Tropical Storm Fay brought strong winds , heavy rain and local flooding to north eastern states of the USA in the last few days .
It was the earliest “ F ” named storm on record and follows fast on the heels of the earliest “ E ” – Edouard – which formed earlier in the week .
And we may be looking at more to come .
In an update to their hurricane season forecast , which includes all storms which are given a name , specialists at Colorado State University are now predicting there could be 20 named @ @ @ @ @ @ @ previous forecast .
The long term average is 12 .
And when it comes specifically to hurricanes – storms with winds of more than 74mph – that ’ s gone up too , from eight to nine .
The forecast for the number of major hurricanes – Category 3 or above – stays at four .
This is the sixth consecutive year that has seen named tropical storms before the official start of the hurricane season on 1 June .
Arthur and Bertha formed in May , also marking the first time since @ @ @ @ @ @ @ month .
Cristobal , Edouard and Fay became , respectively , the earliest third , fifth and sixth named storms on record .
None of these storms became particularly large , which may have had something to do with theunusually large amounts of Saharan dust – a hurricane inhibitor – across the Atlantic .
It may well be that this year will see an above average number of storms – that is what averages are all about .
But the idea that this year , and indeed recent years , are anything special @ @ @ @ @ @ @ course , the implication from the claimthat there could be 20 named storms – up from 16 in their previous forecast .
The long term average is 12 .
The average of 12 is based on 1968 to 2018 , but in the early days it was still common to miss many short lived storms out in the middle of the Atlantic , even as recently as the 1990s .
A comparison of 1968 and 2018 shows clearly how very few mid Atlantic storms were picked up in 1968 , despite the early @ @ @ @ @ @ @ when they struck the US , they were not even given names all of the time : The only meaningful trends that can be drawn are for US landfall storms in the last 30 years , and HURDAT data shows clearly that tropical storms and hurricanes have become much less frequent in the last decade : So far this summer , three tropical storms have hit the US , so there is no sign that this summer will end up being unusual .
The three factors are : Weasel words indeed !
The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that there has been no long term trend in Atlantic hurricanes , which rather puts paid to the BBC ’ s climate stirring .
In the past the BBC have had to retract claims that climate change was making hurricanes worse , following my complaints .
Having had their fingers burned once , they have obviously decided to be more circumspect !


climatedepot--2020-07-14--Decadal Climate Prediction? Might As Well Throw A Dice!

The WMO has collated global temperature projections from twelve different organisations , covering this year and the next five years @ @ @ @ @ 2019 .
First , the forecasts for this year , shown as anomalies from 1981-2010 @ @ @ @ @ years : It is totally clear that there is very little agreement between any of @ @ @ @ @ warm Arctic .
An unkind person might call them a waste of space !


climatedepot--2020-07-14--10 fallacies about Arctic sea ice & polar bear survival refute misleading ‘facts’

This updated blog post of mine from last year is as pertinent now as it was then : it ’ s a fully-referenced rebuttal to the misleading ‘ facts ’ so often presented this time of year to support the notion that polar bears are being harmed due to lack of summer sea ice .
Polar Bears International developed ‘ Arctic Sea Ice Day ’ ( 15 July ) to promote their skewed interpretation of polar bear science at the height of the Arctic melt season .
This year I ’ ve add a ‘ Polar Bears and the Arctic @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are free to download and share .
For further information , see “ The Polar Bear Catastrophe That Never Happened “ .
Summer sea ice loss is finally ramping up : first year is disappearing , as it has done every year since ice came to the Arctic millions of years ago .
But critical misconceptions , fallacies , and disinformation abound regarding Arctic sea ice and polar bear survival .
Ahead of Arctic Sea Ice Day ( 15 July ) , here are 10 fallacies that teachers and parents especially need to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ contact me if you would like to examine any of the references included in this post .
These references are what make my efforts different from the activist organization Polar Bears International .
PBI virtually never provide references within the content it provides , including material it presents as ‘ educational ’ .
Links to previous posts of mine that provide expanded explanations , images , and additional references are also provided .
Sea ice background : extent over the last year Despite the fact that 2019 had the 2nd lowest extent for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ by the end of June 2020 ( as was also the case in 2019 ) , there was still ice adjacent to all major polar bear denning areas across the Arctic ( see chart below ) .
In many regions – including Western Hudson Bay , Wrangel Island , and Franz Josef Land – pregnant females that will give birth on land in December come ashore in summer and stay until their newborn cubs are old enough to return with them to the ice the following spring .
See Andersen et al .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ ; Garner et al .
1994 ; Jonkel et al .
1978 ; Harington 1968 ; Kochnev 2018 ; Kolenosky and Prevett 1983 ; Larsen 1985 ; Olson et al .
2017 ; Richardson et al .
2005 ; Stirling and Andriashek 1992 .
1 .
‘ Sea ice is to the Arctic as soil is to a forest ‘ .
False : this all-or-nothing analogy is a specious comparison .
In fact , Arctic sea ice is like a big wetland pond that dries up a bit every summer , where the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ plants , amphibians and insects is reduced but does not disappear completely .
Wetland species are adapted to this habitat : they are able to survive the reduced water availability in the dry season because it happens every year .
Similarly , sea ice will always reform in the winter and stay until spring .
During the two million or so years that ice has formed in the Arctic , there has always been ice in the winter and spring ( even in warmer Interglacials than this one ) .
Moreover , I @ @ @ @ @ @ @ climate model that predicts winter ice will fail to develop over the next 80 years or so .
See Amstrup et al .
2007 ; Durner et al .
2009 ; Gibbard et al .
2007 ; Polak et al .
2010 ; Stroeve et al .
2007 .
2 .
Polar bears need summer sea ice to survive .
False : polar bears that have fed adequately on young seals in the early springcan live off their fat for five months or moreuntil the fall , whether they spend the summer on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Polar bears seldom catch seals in the summer because only predator-savvy adult seals are available and holes in the pack ice allow the seals many opportunities to escape ( see the BBC video below ) .
Polar bears and Arctic seals truly require sea ice from late fall through early spring only .
See Crockford 2017 , 2019 ; Hammill and Smith 1991:132 ; Obbard et al .
2016 ; Pilfold et al .
2016 ; Stirling 1974 ; Stirling and Øritsland 1995 ; Whiteman et al .
2015 .
3 .
Ice @ @ @ @ @ @ @ life.Only partially true because plankton also thrives in open water during the Arctic summer , which ultimately provides food for the fish species that ringed and bearded seals eat during the summer , which fattens the seals up before the long Arctic winter ( as the graphic below shows ) .
Recent research has shown that less ice in summer has improved ringed and bearded seal health and survival over conditions that existed in the 1980s ( when there was a shorter ice-free season and fewer fish to eat ) : as a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a boon for the polar bears that depend on them for food in early spring .
For example , despite living with the most profound decline of summer sea ice in the Arctic polar bears in the Barents Sea around Svalbard are thriving , as are Chukchi Sea polar bears – both contrary to predictions made in 2007 that resulted in polar bears being declared ‘ threatened ’ with extinction under the Endangered Species Act .
See Aars 2018 ; Aars et al .
2017 ; Amstrup et al .
2007 ; Arrigo @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Quakenbush 2013 ; Crawford et al .
2015 ; Crockford 2017 , 2019 ; Frey et al .
2018 ; Kovacs et al .
2016 ; Lippold et al .
2019 ; Lowry 2016 ; Regehr et al .
2018 ; Rode and Regehr 2010 ; Rode et al .
2013 , 2014 , 2015 , 2018 .
4 .
Open water in early spring as well as summer ice melt since 1979 are unnatural and detrimental to polar bear survival.False : melting ice is a normal part of the seasonal changes in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ spring , a number of areas of open water appear because wind and currents rearrange the pack ice – this is not melt , but rather normal polynya formation and expansion .
Polynyas and widening shore leads provide a beneficial mix of ice resting platform and nutrient-laden open water that attracts Arctic seals and provides excellent hunting opportunities for polar bears .
The map below shows Canadian polynyas and shore leads known in the 1970s : similar patches of open water routinely develop in spring off eastern Greenland and along the Russian coast @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 1981 ; Grenfell and Maykut 1977 ; Hare and Montgomery 1949 ; Smith and Rigby 1981 ; Stirling and Cleator 1981 ; Stirling et al .
1981 , 1993 .
5 .
Climate models do a good job of predicting future polar bear habitat .
False : My recent book , The Polar Bear Catastrophe That Never Happened , explains that the almost 50 % decline in summer sea ice that was not expected until 2050 actually arrived in 2007 , where it has been ever since ( yet polar bears are thriving @ @ @ @ @ @ @ track record of sea ice prediction .
Also , contrary to predictions made by climate modelers , first year ice has already replaced much of the multi-year ice in the southern and eastern portion of the Canadian Arctic Archipelago , to the benefit of polar bears .
See also ACIA 2005 ; Crockford 2017 , 2019 ; Durner et al .
2009 ; Hamilton et al .
2014 ; Heide-Jorgensen et al .
2012 ; Perovich et al .
2018 ; Stern and Laidre 2016 ; Stroeve et al .
2007 ; SWG @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 6 .
Sea ice is getting thinner and that ’ s a problem for polar bears .
False : First year ice ( less than about 2 metres thick ) is the best habit for polar bears because it is also the best habitat for Arctic seals .
Very thick multi-year ice that has been replaced by first year ice that melts completely every summer creates more good habitat for seals and bears in the spring , when they need it the most .
This has happened especially in the southern and eastern @ @ @ @ @ @ @ see ice chart below from Sept 2016 ) .
Because of such changes in ice thickness , the population of polar bears in Kane Basin ( off NW Greenland ) has more than doubled since the late 1990s and numbers of bears in M ’ Clintock Channel ( in the SE Archipelago ) have reportedly also increased .
See Atwood et al .
2016 ; Durner et al .
2009 ; Lang et al .
2017 ; Stirling et al .
1993 ; SWG 2016 .
7 .
Polar bears in Western and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of extinction due to global warming .
False : Ice decline in Hudson Bay has been among the lowest across the Arctic .
Sea ice decline in Hudson Bay ( see graphs below ) has been less than one day per year since 1979 compared to more than 4 days per year in the Barents Sea .
Hudson Bay ice decline also uniquely happened as a sudden step-change in 1998 : there has not been a slow and steady decline .
Since 1998 , the ice-free season in Western Hudson Bay has been @ @ @ @ @ @ @ was in the 1980s but has not become any longer over the last 22 yearsdespite declines in total Arctic sea ice extent or increased carbon dioxide emissions .
Ice coverage over Hudson Bay at the end of June in 2020 was as high as last year , providing good sea ice conditions for WH and SH polar bears for the last five years at least .
See Castro de la Guardia et al .
2017 ; Regehr et al .
2016 .
8 .
Breakup of sea ice in Western Hudson Bay now @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in the 1980s .
False : Breakup now occurs about 2 weeks earlier in summer than it did in the 1980s .
The total length of the ice-free season is now about 3 weeks longer ( with lots of year-to-year variation ) .
WH polar bears tagged last year were still on the ice at the end of June 2020 .
See Castro de la Guardia et al .
2017 ; Cherry et al .
2013 ; Lunn et al .
2016 ; and video below , showing the first bear spotted off @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Hudson Bay , on 5 July 2019 – fat and healthy after eating well during the spring : 9 .
Winter sea ice has been declining since 1979 , putting polar bear survival at risk.Only partially true : while sea ice in winter ( i.e .
March ) has been declining gradually since 1979 ( see graph below from NOAA ) , there is no evidence to suggest this has negatively impacted polar bear health or survival , as the decline has been quite minimal .
The sea ice chart at the beginning @ @ @ @ @ @ @ there was plenty of ice remaining in March to meet the needs of polar bears and their primary prey ( ringed and bearded seals ) , despite 2019 being the 11th lowest since 1979 ( and the highest since 2013 ) .
10 .
Experts say that with 19 different polar bear subpopulations across the Arctic , there are “ 19 sea ice scenarios playing out “ ( see also here ) , implying this is what they predicted all along .
False : In order to predict the future survival of polar @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Survey in 2007 grouped polar bear subpopulations with similar sea ice types ( which they called ‘ polar bear ecoregions , ’ see map below ) .
Their predictions of polar bear survival were based on assumptions of how the ice in these four sea ice regions would change over time ( with areas in green and purple being similarly extremely vulnerable to effects of climate change ) .
However , it turns out that there is much more variation within and between regions than they expected and more differences in responses to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ contrary to predictions , the Barents Sea has had a far greater decline in summer ice extent than any other region , and both Western and Southern Hudson Bay have had relatively little ( see # 7 ) .
See Amstrup et al .
2007 ; Atwood et al .
2016 ; Crockford 2017 , 2019 , 2020 ; Durner et al .
2009 ; Lippold et al .
2019 ; Regehr et al .
2016 .
My latest book , The Polar Bear Catastrophe That Never Happened , explains why this prediction @ @ @ @ @ @ @ miserably .
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climatedepot--2020-07-14--‘5 Years To Climate Breakdown’: How To Generate Computer Model Scares

Shock , horror : According to the WMO and the Met Office , there is a 3 % chance of the forthcoming five-year global temperature average exceeding 1.5°C .
There are several definitions of hustle .
One of them is to use forceful actions to promote an action or point of view .
It ’ s everywhere of course and in all aspects of climate change .
It ’ s all to apparent when scientists want grants , jobs and headlines .
It ’ s no new discovery that combining hustle with statistics can get you anywhere .
The recently @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ( WMO ) , prepared by the UK Met Office , that there is a “ growing chance ” of the world exceeding the “ Paris threshold ” of 1.5°C in global temperature above pre-industrial levels is a prime example of this .
It says there is a 20 % chance that one of the next five years will exceed 1.5°C , and a 70 % chance a single month will during the same period .
Another way of saying this , statistically equally justifiable , is that there is an 80 % @ @ @ @ @ @ @ not increase statistically significantly over the next five years .
There are no headlines saying that !
Just for a moment think what this means .
If there is no significant change in global average temperature by 2025 , we will be able to look back thirty years ( the official definition of climate ) and note that the two major warming episodes , 1998 and 2015 , were both due to natural climatic variability , in this case two El Nino events .
In many ways , the WMO report is more @ @ @ @ @ @ @ climatic variability than it is to long-term anthropogenic warming .
What ’ s more this forecast has been tested by reversing the direction of time in the computer models and seeing how successfully it “ predicts ” the past .
One would expect any model to be good at this because past observations have already been incorporated into the model which has evolved to have no serious disagreements with it .
In such a complicated system as the climate – and the WMO report actually stresses the uncertain and poorly understood nature of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ future is an entirely different thing .
Good hindcasts do not imply good forecasts .
In other reports of the same WMO document the statistics get even more suspicious .
One says that there is a 3 % chance of the forthcoming five-year global temperature average exceeding 1.5°C .
Three percent implies a very accurate predicative ability , especially when it is accompanied by no error statement .
Again , any journalist looking at these figures objectively would find that the real story is that there is a 97 % chance that the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ remain more or less what it is now .
And yet the Ecologist website proclaims we have five years to climate breakdown .
A story like this is a kind of litmus test for journalists .
They can take the press release and wave it through to their website with minor changes and supporting statements .
Or they could look at the statistics and — how can I say this — ask questions .
I have a feeling that the era of unquestioning journalist environmental advocacy which began in the early years of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Perhaps they could start to be guided by the empirical data and the messages it has been sending us for years ; we do not understand natural climatic variability ; our models are nowhere near as accurate as some maintain and forecasts of future temperatures more often than not end in ignominy .
The post “ 5 Years To Climate Breakdown ” : How To Generate Computer Model Scaresappeared first on The Global Warming Policy Forum ( GWPF ) .


climatedepot--2020-07-14--Green Energy Prof Faces $600.000 Legal Fee Over Failed Attempt To Silence His Critics

Stanford prof ordered to pay legal fees after dropping $ 10 million defamation case against another scientist A Stanford professor who sued a critic and a scientific journal for $ 10 million — then dropped the suit — has been ordered to pay the defendants ’ legal fees based on a statute “ designed to provide for early dismissal of meritless lawsuits filed against people for the exercise of First Amendment rights.
” Mark Jacobson , who studies renewable energy at Stanford , sued in September 2017 in the Superior Court of the District of Columbia for defamation over a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ National Academy of Sciences ( PNAS ) that critiqued a 2015 article he had written in the same journal .
He sued PNAS and the first author of the paper , Christopher Clack , an executive at a firm that analyzes renewable energy .
At the time , Kenneth White , a lawyer at Southern California firm Brown White & Osborn who frequently blogs at Popehat about legal issues related to free speech , said of the suit : In February 2018 , following a hearing at which PNAS argued for the case @ @ @ @ @ @ @ suit , telling us that he “ was expecting them to settle.
” The defendants then filed , based on the anti-SLAPP — for “ Strategic Lawsuit Against Public Participation ” — statute in Washington , DC , for Jacobson to pay their legal fees .
In April of this year , as noted then by Forbes , District of Columbia Superior Court Judge Elizabeth Carroll Wingo , who has been presiding over the case , ruled that Jacobson would have to pay those fees .
In that ruling , Wingo wrote that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ but Wingo upheld it in a June 25 order .
Jacobson could be on the hook for more than $ 600,000 , the total of what the plaintiffs have told the court were their legal costs — $ 535,900 for PNAS , and $ 75,000 for Clack .
see also GWPF coverage of Mark Jacobson ’ s lawsuit against his critics The post Green Energy Prof Faces $ 600.000 Legal Fee Over Failed Attempt To Silence His Critics appeared first on The Global Warming Policy Forum ( GWPF ) .


climatedepot--2020-07-14--Matt Ridley: Against Environmental Pessimism

Doomsday thinking about the environment has been popular for decades .
A rational optimist lays out the many reasons we can be hopeful about the future of the planet .
In 1980 , the year that PERC was founded , I spent three months in the Himalayas working on a wildlife conservation project .
The purpose was to do wildlife surveys on behalf of the Indian government in the stunningly beautiful valleys of the Kulu region in northern India , among forests of deodar cedar and evergreen oak .
One species of particular interest was a bird called the western @ @ @ @ @ @ @ forest pheasant with red plumage around the neck and bright blue skin on the male ’ s throat .
The bird was found only in a few places and thought to be teetering on the brink of extinction .
Though we saw other pheasant species , we never saw a tragopan that year , but some of the people we met knew of the bird , and one even handed me the remains of a tragopan that had been shot for food .
I feared it might be the last one .
I @ @ @ @ @ @ @ when the birds ’ mating calls might give them away in the deep bamboo thickets they preferred , but work prevented me .
If you had asked me in 1980 to predict what would happen to that bird and its forest ecosystem , I would have been very pessimistic .
I could see the effect on the forests of growing human populations , with their guns and flocks of sheep .
More generally , I was marinated in gloom by almost everything I read about the environment .
The human population explosion was @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of famine ; malaria and other diseases were going to increase ; oil , gas , and metals would soon run out , forcing us to return to burning wood ; most forests would then be felled ; deserts were expanding ; half of all species were heading for extinction ; the great whales would soon be gone from the oil-stained oceans ; sprawling cities and modern farms were going to swallow up the last wild places ; and pollution of the air , rivers , sea , and earth was beginning to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ don ’ t remember reading anything remotely optimistic about the future of the planet .
Today , the valleys we worked in are part of the Great Himalayan National Park , a protected area that gained prestigious World Heritage status in 2014 .
The logo of the park is an image of the western tragopan , a bird you can now go on a trekking holiday specifically to watch .
It has not gone extinct , and although it is still rare and hard to spot , the latest population estimate is considerably @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The area remains mostly a wilderness accessible largely on foot , and the forests and alpine meadows have partly recovered from too much grazing , hunting , and logging .
Ecotourism is flourishing .
This is just one small example of things going right in the environment .
Let me give some bigger ones .
Far from starving , the seven billion people who now inhabit the planet are far better fed than the four billion of 1980 .
Famine has pretty much gone extinct in recent decades .
In the 1960s , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ; in the decade that just ended , tens of thousands died—and those were in countries run by callous tyrants .
Paul Ehrlich , the ecologist and best-selling author who declared in 1968 that “ [ t ] he battle to feed all of humanity is over ” and forecast that “ hundreds of millions of people will starve to death ” —and was given a genius award for it—proved to be very badly wrong .
Remarkably , this feeding of seven billion people has happened without taking much new land under the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in many places farmland has reverted to wilderness .
In 2009 , Jesse Ausubel of Rockefeller University calculated that thanks to more farmers getting access to better fertilizers , pesticides , and biotechnology , the area of land needed to produce a given quantity of food—averaged for all crops—was 65 percent less than in 1961 .
As a result , an area the size of India will be freed up by mid-century .
That is an enormous boost for wildlife .
National parks and other protected areas have expanded steadily as well .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ whole brought new problems of pollution in their wake .
Quite the reverse .
The replacement of pesticides like DDT with much less harmful ones that do not persist in the environment and accumulate up the food chain , in addition to advances in biotechnology , has allowed wildlife to begin to recover .
In the part of northern England where I live , otters have returned to the rivers , and hawks , kites , ospreys , and falcons to the skies , largely thanks to the elimination of organochlorine pesticides .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ the European Union—there has been a 37 percent reduction in the use of insecticides , as shown by a recent studydone at Gottingen University .
One of the extraordinary features of the past 40 years has been the reappearance of wildlife that was once seemingly headed for extinction .
Bald eagles have bounced back so spectacularly that they have been taken off the endangered list .
Deer and beavers have spread into the suburbs of cities , followed by coyotes , bears , and even wolves .
The wolf has now recolonized much @ @ @ @ @ @ @ parts of the heavily populated Netherlands .
Estuaries have been cleaned up so that fish and birds have recolonized rivers like the Thames .
Here ’ s a question I put to school children when I get the chance : Why is the wolf population increasing , the lion decreasing , and the tiger now holding its own ?
The answer is simple : Wolves live in rich countries , lions in poor countries , and tigers in middle-income countries .
It turns out that we conservationists were wrong to fear economic development @ @ @ @ @ @ @ best thing that can happen to a country ’ s wildlife .
As people get richer , they can afford to buy electricity rather than cut wood , buy chicken rather than hunt bushmeat , or get a job in a town rather than try to scratch a living from a patch of land .
They can also stop worrying that their children will starve and start to care about the environment .
In country after country , first in Asia , then in Latin America , and now increasingly in Africa , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ gains has swiftly delivered a turning point in the fortunes of wild ecosystems .
The post Matt Ridley : Against Environmental Pessimism appeared first on The Global Warming Policy Forum ( GWPF ) .


climatedepot--2020-07-14--Climate Models Unable To Show Link Between Arctic Warming And Harsh Mid-Latitude Winters

Researchers can no longer blame inconvenient cold winters on Arctic warming .
No scientific basis , new study shows .
The Arctic is warming faster than the mid-latitudes .
It ’ s the so-called Arctic amplification ( AA ) .
According to a study by Polvani et al .
2020 , half of the Arctic warming is due to ozone-depleting substances – and not CO2 .
This was of course a great surprise , as we have already reported here .
So no wonder that the climate models are going crazy , since they have so far attributed almost the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ been hopelessly overbooked , as it now turns out .
In Nature Climate Change , a paper by Cohen et al .
2020 has been published and it shakes another myth .
In the past , researchers were too happy to tell us that strong Arctic warming leads to harsh winters in mid-latitudes .
However , there is a problem : the models are largely unable to reconstruct this presumed relationship : The paper finds : The Arctic has warmed more than twice as fast as the global average since the late twentieth @ @ @ @ @ @ @ amplification ( AA ) .
Recently , there have been considerable advances in understanding the physical contributions to AA , and progress has been made in understanding the mechanisms that link it to midlatitude weather variability .
Observational studies overwhelmingly support that AA is contributing to winter continental cooling .
Although some model experiments support the observational evidence , most modelling results show little connection between AA and severe midlatitude weather or suggest the export of excess heating from the Arctic to lower latitudes .
Divergent conclusions between model and observational studies , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ obfuscate a clear understanding of how AA is influencing midlatitude weather .
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