climatedepot--2020-03-22--Peter Hitchens on Govts’ Coronavirus’ ‘frantic’ clampdown: ‘Despotism…Banana Republic…Is this China

Peter Hitchens on Govts’ Coronavirus’ ‘frantic’ clampdown: ‘Despotism…Banana Republic…Is this China or Britain?’ – We are ‘surrendering centuries-old liberties in an afternoon…rushing into…arms of Big Brother’

Peter Hitchens : `` However bad this virus is ( and I will come to that ) , the feverish panic on the world ’ s trading floors is at least as bad .
Governments all over the world are resorting to risky , frantic measures .
Did you know that the Government and Opposition had originally agreed that there would not even be a vote on these measures ?
Even Vladimir Putin might hesitate before doing anything so blatant frightening series of restrictions on ancient liberties and vast increases in police and state powers . ''
`` Epidemic disasters @ @ @ @ @ @ @ have not been anything like as bad as feared . ''
`` The coronavirus deaths , while distressing and shocking , are not so numerous as to require the civilised world to shut down transport and commerce , nor to surrender centuries-old liberties in an afternoon . ''
`` All the crudest weapons of despotism , the curfew , the presumption of guilt and the power of arbitrary arrest , are taking shape in the midst of what used to be a free country . ''
`` And we , who like to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a crisis , seem to despise our ancient hard-bought freedom and actually want to rush into the warm , firm arms of Big Brother . ''
`` Imagine , police officers forcing you to be screened for a disease , and locking you up for 48 hours if you object .
Is this China or Britain ? ''
`` How long before we need passes to go out in the streets , as in any other banana republic ?
PETER HITCHENS : Is shutting down Britain – with unprecedented curbs on ancient liberties @ @ @ @ @ @ @ PETER HITCHENS FOR THE MAIL ON SUNDAY And so here I am , asking bluntly – is the closedown of the country the right answer to the coronavirus ?
I ’ ll be accused of undermining the NHS and threatening public health and all kinds of other conformist rubbish .
But I ask you to join me , because if we have this wrong we have a great deal to lose .
I don ’ t just address this plea to my readers .
I think my fellow journalists should ask the same @ @ @ @ @ @ @ parties should ask them when they are urged tomorrow to pass into law a frightening series of restrictions on ancient liberties and vast increases in police and state powers .
Did you know that the Government and Opposition had originally agreed that there would not even be a vote on these measures ?
Even Vladimir Putin might hesitate before doing anything so blatant .
If there is no serious rebellion against this plan in the Commons , then I think we can commemorate tomorrow , March 23 , 2020 , as the day @ @ @ @ @ @ @ as I can see , the population cares more about running out of lavatory paper .
Praise must go to David Davis and Chris Bryant , two MPs who have bravely challenged this measure .
It may also be the day our economy perished .
The incessant coverage of health scares and supermarket panics has obscured the dire news coming each hour from the stock markets and the money exchanges .
The wealth that should pay our pensions is shrivelling as share values fade and fall .
The pound sterling has lost a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ all over the world are resorting to risky , frantic measures which make Jeremy Corbyn ’ s magic money tree look like sober , sound finance .
Much of this has been made far worse by the general shutdown of the planet on the pretext of the coronavirus scare .
However bad this virus is ( and I will come to that ) , the feverish panic on the world ’ s trading floors is at least as bad .
And then there is the Johnson Government ’ s stumbling retreat from reason @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Johnson was true to himself and resisted wild demands to close down the country .
But bit by bit he gave in .
The schools were to stay open .
Now they are shutting , with miserable consequences for this year ’ s A-level cohort .
Cafes and pubs were to be allowed to stay open , but now that is over .
On this logic , shops and supermarkets must be next , with everyone forced to rely on overstrained delivery vans .
And that will presumably be followed by hairdressers , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ long before we need passes to go out in the streets , as in any other banana republic ?
As for the grotesque , bullying powers to be created on Monday , I can only tell you that you will hate them like poison by the time they are imposed on you .
All the crudest weapons of despotism , the curfew , the presumption of guilt and the power of arbitrary arrest , are taking shape in the midst of what used to be a free country .
And we , who @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are in a crisis , seem to despise our ancient hard-bought freedom and actually want to rush into the warm , firm arms of Big Brother .
Imagine , police officers forcing you to be screened for a disease , and locking you up for 48 hours if you object .
Is this China or Britain ?
Think how this power could be used against , literally , anybody .
The Bill also gives Ministers the authority to ban mass gatherings .
It will enable police and public health workers to place restrictions @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and travel ’ , ‘ activities ’ and ‘ contact with others ’ .
Many court cases will now take place via video-link , and if a coroner suspects someone has died of coronavirus there will be no inquest .
They say this is temporary .
They always do .
Well , is it justified ?
There is a document from a team at Imperial College in London which is being used to justify it .
It warns of vast numbers of deaths if the country is not subjected to a medieval curfew @ @ @ @ @ @ @ It claims , in my view quite wrongly , that the coronavirus has ‘ comparable lethality ’ to the Spanish flu of 1918 , which killed at least 17 million people and mainly attacked the young .
What can one say to this ?
In a pungent letter to The Times last week , a leading vet , Dick Sibley , cast doubt on the brilliance of the Imperial College scientists , saying that his heart sank when he learned they were advising the Government .
Calling them a ‘ team of doom-mongers @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the 2001 foot-and-mouth outbreak ‘ led to what I believe to be the unnecessary slaughter of millions of healthy cattle and sheep ’ until they were overruled by the then Chief Scientific Adviser , Sir David King .
He added : ‘ I hope that Boris Johnson , Chris Whitty and Sir Patrick Vallance show similar wisdom .
They must ensure that measures are proportionate , balanced and practical.
’ Avoidable deaths are tragic , but each year there are already many deaths , especially among the old , from complications of flu @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Health and Social Care ( DHSC ) tells me that the number of flu cases and deaths due to flu-related complications in England alone averages 17,000 a year .
This varies greatly each winter , ranging from 1,692 deaths last season ( 2018/19 ) to 28,330 deaths in 2014/15 .
The DHSC notes that many of those who die from these diseases have underlying health conditions , as do almost all the victims of coronavirus so far , here and elsewhere .
As the experienced and knowledgeable doctor who writes under the pseudonym @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Private Eye wrote at the start of the panic : ‘ In the winter of 2017-18 , more than 50,000 excess deaths occurred in England and Wales , largely unnoticed.
’ Nor is it just respiratory diseases that carry people off too soon .
In the Government ’ s table of ‘ deaths considered avoidable ’ , it lists 31,307 deaths from cardiovascular diseases in England and Wales for 2013 , the last year for which they could give me figures .
This , largely the toll of unhealthy lifestyles , was out @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ deaths in that year .
To put all these figures in perspective , please note that every human being in the United Kingdom suffers from a fatal condition – being alive .
About 1,600 people die every day in the UK for one reason or another .
A similar figure applies in Italy and a much larger one in China .
The coronavirus deaths , while distressing and shocking , are not so numerous as to require the civilised world to shut down transport and commerce , nor to surrender centuries-old liberties @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of supposedly devastating death rates .
But at least one expert , John Ioannidis , is not so sure .
He is Professor of Medicine , of epidemiology and population health , of biomedical data science , and of statistics at Stanford University in California .
He says the data are utterly unreliable because so many cases are going unrecorded .
He warns : ‘ This evidence fiasco creates tremendous uncertainty about the risk of dying from Covid-19 .
Reported case fatality rates , like the official 3.4 per cent rate from the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are meaningless.
’ In only one place – aboard the cruise ship Diamond Princess – has an entire closed community been available for study .
And the death rate there – just one per cent – is distorted because so many of those aboard were elderly .
The real rate , adjusted for a wide age range , could be as low as 0.05 per cent and as high as one per cent .
As Prof Ioannidis says : ‘ That huge range markedly affects how severe the pandemic is and what should @ @ @ @ @ @ @ rate of 0.05 per cent is lower than seasonal influenza .
If that is the true rate , locking down the world with potentially tremendous social and financial consequences may be totally irrational .
It ’ s like an elephant being attacked by a house cat .
Frustrated and trying to avoid the cat , the elephant accidentally jumps off a cliff and dies.
’ Epidemic disasters have been predicted many times before and have not been anything like as bad as feared .
The former editor of The Times , Sir Simon @ @ @ @ @ @ @ : bird flu did not kill the predicted millions in 1997 .
In 1999 it was Mad Cow Disease and its human variant , vCJD , which was predicted to kill half a million .
Fewer than 200 in fact died from it in the UK .
The first Sars outbreak of 2003 was reported as having ‘ a 25 per cent chance of killing tens of millions ’ and being ‘ worse than Aids ’ .
In 2006 , another bout of bird flu was declared ‘ the first pandemic of the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ warnings in 2009 , that swine flu could kill 65,000 .
It did not .
The Council of Europe described the hyping of the 2009 pandemic as ‘ one of the great medical scandals of the century ’ .
Well , we shall no doubt see .
But while I see very little evidence of a pandemic , and much more of a PanicDemic , I can witness on my daily round the slow strangulation of dozens of small businesses near where I live and work , and the catastrophic collapse of a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on by a Government policy made out of fear and speculation rather than thought .
Much that is closing may never open again .
The time lost to schoolchildren and university students – in debt for courses which have simply ceased to be taught – is irrecoverable , just as the jobs which are being wiped out will not reappear when the panic at last subsides .
We are told that we must emulate Italy or China , but there is no evidence that the flailing , despotic measures taken in these countries @ @ @ @ @ @ @ most basic error in science is to assume that because B happens after A , that B was caused by A .
There may , just , be time to reconsider .
I know that many of you long for some sort of coherent opposition to be voiced .
The people who are paid to be the Opposition do not seem to wish to earn their rations , so it is up to the rest of us .
I despair that so many in the commentariat and politics obediently accept what they are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ enough , and travelled far enough , to know that authority is often wrong and can not always be trusted .
I also know that dissent at this time will bring me abuse and perhaps worse .
But I am not saying this for fun , or to be ‘ contrarian ’ –that stupid word which suggests that you are picking an argument for fun .
This is not fun .
This is our future , and if I did not lift my voice to speak up for it now , even if @ @ @ @ @ @ @ should consider that I was not worthy to call myself English or British , or a journalist , and that my parents ’ generation had wasted their time saving the freedom and prosperity which they handed on to me after a long and cruel struggle whose privations and griefs we can barely imagine .
If you want to comment on Peter Hitchens click here .


climatedepot--2020-03-23--Is the COVID-19 Economic Downturn Affecting Atmospheric CO2? Mauna Loa Data Say, Not Yet

Some global warming alarmists are celebrating the current economic downturn as just what is needed to avert climate catastrophe .
I ’ ve seen a couple estimates that China ’ s manufacturing and commerce might have seen up at 40 % reduction recently .
The current global crisis will be a test of just how much economic pain is required to substantially reduce CO2 emissions ( assuming there is no reasonably affordable and practical replacement for fossil fuels ) .
I already know that some of my “ deep skeptic ” acquaintances ( you know who you are ) who @ @ @ @ @ @ @ natural will claim a continuing CO2 rise in the face of a decrease in economic activity supports their case .
I have previously shown that a simple model of the CO2 variations since 1959 forced with anthropogenic emissions accurately explain the Mauna Loa observations ( see Fig .
2 , explanation here ) .
It will take considerable evidence to convince me that the long-term rise in not anthropogenic , and maybe the current “ coronavirus experiment ” will provide some contrarian evidence .
Of course , for anthropogenic CO2 emissions reductions to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to show up in the atmosphere .
The most widely cited monitoring location for CO2 is on Mauna Loa in Hawaii .
It is at high elevation in a persistent subtropical high pressure zone that should be able to detect large emissions changes in several weeks time as weather systems move around the world .
I ’ ve had several requests , and seen numerous social media comments , suggesting this is something that should be looked at .
So , I ’ ve analyzed the Mauna Loa CO2 data ( updated monthly @ @ @ @ @ @ @ there is any hint of a CO2 concentration downturn ( or , more accurately , reduced rate of rise ) .
The short answer is : No… at least not yet .
While an anthropogenic source of CO2 can explain the long-term rise in CO2 , the trouble with finding an anthropogenic signal on time scale of a few months to a couple years is that natural variations swamp any anthropogenic changes on short time scales .
The monthly data ( arbitrarily starting 1996 , below ) shows a continuing long-term rise that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 1958 .
Also seen is the strong seasonal cycle as the vegetation in the Northern Hemisphere goes through its normal seasonal variations in growth and decay .
Obviously , not much can be discerned from the raw monthly average data in the above plot because the seasonal cycle is so strong .
So , the first step is to remove the seasonal cycle .
I did this by subtracting out a 4th order polynomial fit before removing the average seasonal cycle , then adding that statistical fit back in : Next , there @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to El Nino and La Nina ( ENSO ) activity , and if we remove an average statistical estimate of that ( a time lag and averaging is involved to increase signal ) , we can get a little better idea of whether the most recent month ( February 2020 ) is out of the ordinary .
I have zeroed in on just the most recent 5 years for clarity .
The polynomial fit to the data ( thin dotted line ) shows what we might expect for the coming months , and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ yet departing from the expected values .
Of course , there are a variety of natural variations that impact global average CO2 on a month-to-month basis : Interannual variations in wildfire activity , land vegetation and sea surface temperatures , variations in El Nino and La Nina effects , and short-term fluctuations in anthropogenic emissions immediately come to mind .
( The Pinatubo and El Chichon volcano eruptions actually caused a reduction in global CO2 , probably due to post-eruption vegetation effects from an increase in diffuse sunlight penetration of forest canopies ) @

Thank you for being patient. We are doing some work on the site and will be back shortly.


climatedepot--2020-03-23--NYT: ‘Climate Change’ Has Lessons for Fighting the Coronavirus – Climate battle has familiar ‘disdai

NYT: ‘Climate Change’ Has Lessons for Fighting the Coronavirus – Climate battle has familiar ‘disdain for science, neglecting future risk, lack of global leadership’

It is a familiar refrain to anyone who works on climate change , and it is why global efforts to @ @ @ @ @ cautionary tale for the effort to slow down the pandemic .
“ Both demand early @ @ @ @ @ , ” said Kim Cobb , a climate scientist at the Georgia Institute of Technology @ @ @ @ @ this week .
“ Only in hindsight will we really understand what we gambled on @ @ @ @ @ not acting early enough.
” Scientists like Dr. Cobb have , for years , urged @ @ @ @ @ curve of planet-warming emissions .
Instead , emissions have raced upward .
Now the consequences @ @ @ @ @ three-month-long flood in the Florida Keys , wildfires across a record hot and dry Australia @ @ @ @ @ Europe .


climatedepot--2020-03-23--Heartland Institute Launches ClimateRealism.com – Debunks climate claims promoted by media

This new website will debunk the alarmist climate propaganda that dominates the media ’ s coverage of the environment ARLINGTON HEIGHTS , IL ( March 19 , 2020 ) – The Heartland Institute is proud to announce ClimateRealism.com , a new website that debunks climate scares perpetuated in the media .
ClimateRealism.com is Heartland ’ s second new climate website launched this month ; ClimateAtAGlance.com debuted last week .
Nearly every day , the establishment media promotes new climate propaganda themes designed to scare people into believing a climate crisis is at hand .
When the Climate Scare goes unrebutted @ @ @ @ @ @ @ default that the propaganda is true .
Yet most of the media ’ s climate propaganda is misleading or outright false .
ClimateRealism.com will address and debunk the media ’ s most prominent climate-related tall tales .
“ The alarmist Climate Delusion depends on people being uninformed or misinformed , ” said Heartland Institute President James Taylor .
“ ClimateRealism.com will provide policymakers , media , and the general public with timely and easy-to-understand information that debunks media-peddled climate scares .
No longer will the public have to blindly accept the climate propaganda @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the internet.
” Regular updates at ClimateRealism.com will feature concise Heartland-authored articles , as well as summaries and links to articles written by other climate realists .
The regular articles are designed to explain the truth behind the media ’ s climate scares in a clear , succinct manner .
Links within the articles will direct readers to supporting facts and information .
ClimateRealism.com will also serve as a portal linking to additional climate resources , such as Heartland ’ s new Climate-at-a-Glance website .
ClimateAtAGlance.com provides compelling , easy to digest one- @ @ @ @ @ @ @ issues , such as hurricanes , droughts , species impacts , and more .
The summaries are particularly valuable for policymakers , teachers , and students .
To speak to Mr. Taylor about Heartland ’ s two new websites—ClimateRealism.com and ClimateAtAGlance.com—please contact Deputy Director of Communications Keely Drukala at [ email protected ] and 312/377-4000 or ( cell ) 312/282-1390 .
The Heartland Institute is a 36-year-old national nonprofit organization headquartered in Arlington Heights , Illinois .
Its mission is to discover , develop , and promote free-market solutions to social and economic @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ the leading think tank promoting skepticism of man-caused climate change.
” The organization has sponsored 13 International Conferences on Climate Change and published the 6,000-page Climate Change Reconsidered series by the Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change .


climatedepot--2020-03-23--Warmist Ben Santer: How COVID-19 Is like Climate Change – ‘Both are existential challenges’

Pandemics are not the only existential problem we face .
Climate change endangers every present and future citizen of this @ @ @ @ @ care about the health of our communities , countries and global commons , we must @ @ @ @ @ planet without relying on fossil fuels .
It would be a tragedy to survive the @ @ @ @ @ climate disruption .
An abundance of caution demands that we address both problems .


climatedepot--2020-03-23--USA Warned About Internationally Mandated ‘Coronavirus Economy’

The United States should pay close attention to developments in Europe , beyond their governments ’ response to the COVID-19 virus .
Other contagions loom .
For example , we now see proof that the retrenchment embodied by the current “ coronavirus economy ” could become legally mandated , with no recovery permitted but only worsening , in the name of climate change .
While extreme , this is actually unfolding , and the United States ignores the warnings at its peril .
In February , the United Kingdom ’ s Court of Appeal blocked construction of a third runway @ @ @ @ @ @ @ While additional runways seem quaint amid travel lockdowns , the longer view reminds us that infrastructure expansion is vital to economic growth .
Ask any candidate for president , vowing massive infrastructure programs that , this ruling confirms , are irreconcilable with their climate promises like the Green New Deal and rejoining the Paris climate treaty .
The Heathrow opinion has caused political and economic upheaval , and ecstasy among “ green ” campaigners .
That is because the decision in Spurrier et al .
v. Secretary of State for Transport requires any @ @ @ @ @ @ @ infrastructure project going forward , comply with the 2015 Paris agreement .
As only the most recent judicial intervention leveraging purportedly “ non-binding ” commitments into legal obligations , this is also a very timely reminder for the United States .
President Obama agreed to Paris and submitted a ratification instrument on behalf of the U.S in September 2016 , claiming it was not a treaty requiring Senate advice and consent .
“ Non-binding !
” was a key talking point in support .
This claim , deficient in too many ways to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ events .
Although the U.K. court also cited the U.K. ’ s own Climate Change Act and European Union Strategic Environmental Assessment ( SEA ) Directive , the judges ruled that the failure to account for the U.K. ’ s promised emission reductions under Paris was “ legally fatal.
” Any expansion plan must satisfy both domestic law and the U.K. ’ s Paris agreement promise to reduce carbon dioxide emissions .
Get used to hearing this .
The lesson for President Trump is clear : Just because an international agreement doesn ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ doesn ’ t mean you don ’ t have to comply with it .
In 2018 , in Urgenda Foundation v. State of the Netherlands , The Hague Court of Appeals also turned these ostensibly hortatory climate promises and declarations into enforceable obligations .
That court ordered the Dutch emission-reduction laws match years of governmental rhetoric manifested in supposedly aspirational climate pacts , asserting that parties to these agreements have assumed a “ duty of care.
” Cheap environmental virtue can be costly .
Certainly , activist state attorneys general intend to sue @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s Kim Strassel wrote in 2017 , one of us “ unearthed a legal memo from the New York attorney general ’ s office that laid out a strategy to get courts to force C02 cuts under international treaties.
” Already , federal judges have lined up to block proposed and even permitted projects , such as the Keystone XL Pipeline , citing to the National Environmental Policy Act ( NEPA ) and a failure to consider a project ’ s contribution to cumulative climate impacts .
Under Paris , the United States @ @ @ @ @ @ @ cuts , every five years , in perpetuity .
In a June 2017 Rose Garden speech , Mr. Trump announced his intention to withdraw from Paris , citing U.S. sovereignty and “ serious legal and constitutional concerns , ” among others .
Critics pounced .
Why bother , they keened , with seemingly disproportionate and self-contradicting fury , it ’ s not even binding !
Well .
Editorialists harrumphed that , by leaving Paris , Mr. Trump would also leave the United States as the only nation not signed up .
Why , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , not really .
Like most countries , China and India did not promise emission reductions under Paris .
Between them , they plan to build 320 airports in the next decade .
The Maldives , self-styled poster child for the horrors of man-made global warming , is opening four more airports this year alone .
That is four more than the U.K. likely will be able to build , under the Court of Appeals ’ Heathrow opinion .
It is also four more than the United States should expect , should it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ To judge by its terms , level of detail and commitment , and U.S. custom and practice , Paris is a treaty .
Nonetheless , rather than declare Paris to be a treaty and transmit it to the Senate for a ratification vote , Mr. Trump is withdrawing pursuant to Paris ’ terms .
His November 2019 withdrawal notice takes effect Nov. 4 , 2020 , by chance the day after the U.S. elections .
Unfortunately , dignifying this “ pen and a phone ” approach leaves the door wide open for the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ President Biden or Sanders , who both promise to do so immediately upon taking office .
It is unlikely the president will change course and pursue more durable withdrawal options , and the Senate showed repeatedly under President Obama it has no appetite to fight even to protect its own constitutional prerogatives .
As such , the Heathrow opinion putting the lie to the “ non-binding ” talking point should serve as a clear warning to the United States about the Paris agreement .
With such a clear distinction between Mr. Trump and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ now that a “ coronavirus economy ” could be legally mandated , it is critical the United States have an actual debate about the Paris climate agreement and the larger climate policy agenda .


climatedepot--2020-03-23--Former Harvard Physicist Dr. Lubos Motl: ‘Every rational person must realize that this ‘war on Covid

Former Harvard Physicist Dr. Lubos Motl: ‘Every rational person must realize that this ‘war on Covid-19’ is absolutely suicidal

Every rational person must realize that this “ war on Covid-19 ” is absolutely suicidal .
Most of the Western nations just seem brain-dead at this moment .
Brainwashed hysterical cowardly sheep that have been switched into an irrational survival mode This disease differs from flu in some technical aspects but it ’ s still analogous to flu , not to an invasion of Martians as the fake news media claim 24 hours a day .
Mankind of 2020 is the first iteration of mankind in the recorded history that seems willing to buy the insane idea that “ we @ @ @ @ @ @ @ fight this virus .
Our ancestors knew better .
Japan wisely reopened schools and businesses two days ago and started to behave as if nothing “ totally special ” were taking place – because nothing totally special is really taking place .
The nations that will avoid these suicidal shutdowns – shutdowns that will become increasingly difficult to exit from – will have an incredible advantage over others the hysterical loons ’ policies to “ fight ” with the virus on the national level “ whatever it takes ” are capable of ruining @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that are happening in the context of the Covid-19 hysteria is too high .
Billions of gullible people were programmed to be impressed by every death caused by this flu-like disease if not every infection – and to eagerly expect the news about a new death .
So they ’ re even more impressed when these numbers doubled in a week , and they did .
There will be more doublings .
The propagation looks almost identical to flu : in two or three months , it may also spread from “ almost @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Czech population .
However , before the Covid-19 deaths are substantially above 600,000 ( let ’ s assume that in 2020 ) , we can ’ t even say that this is a year with the higher-than-average mortality due to flu-like diseases .
This is obviously one of the basic points underlying any rational perspective on this new virus type .
Even now , it ’ s possible that the number of flu-like deaths ( which is meant to include pneumonia ) will be globally lower in 2020 than it was in 2019 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is being totally deconstructed .
An economic growth in 2020 seems impossible and the word recession seems like an almost guaranteed euphemism , too .
Due to the hysteria ignited by the filthy scum that we should have neutralized but we were too obviously too weak , we ’ re surely heading towards a Great Depression .
I will call it the Great Viral Depression , GVD .
Whether it will be deeper than the Great Depression of the early 1930s is yet to be seen .
Our civilization should have better and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and deaths than around the 1918-1920 Spanish flu ( and even the 1968-1969 Hong Kong flu ) .
Instead , we seem more chaotic and , in many respects , more vulnerable .
It should also have better financial tools to shorten and end a depression .
I suppose that trillions of dollars will be poured into the economies , bonds , stock markets , and thrown from the helicopters in very many ways .
It ’ s already starting .
It ’ s kind of needed .
Inflation may be restarted – @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to proceed after 1930 , too .
But the waters will be wild and many companies and individuals will suffer .


climatedepot--2020-03-23--Trump Says Coronavirus Cure Cannot ‘Be Worse Than the Problem Itself’

President Trump on Sunday night said that the government would reassess the recommended period for keeping businesses shut and millions of workers at home after this week , amid millions of job losses caused by the efforts to contain the spread of the novel coronavirus .
“ WE CAN NOT LET THE CURE BE WORSE THAN THE PROBLEM ITSELF , ” Mr. Trump tweeted in all capital letters shortly before midnight .
“ AT THE END OF THE 15 DAY PERIOD , WE WILL MAKE A DECISION AS TO WHICH WAY WE WANT TO GO !
” Officials have said @ @ @ @ @ @ @ distancing — limiting close contact between people by banning gatherings , closing schools and offices , encouraging remote work and urging people to maintain a six-foot distance from one another — is vital to slowing the spread of the virus , for which more than 30,000 people in the United States have tested positive .
The 15-day period would end Monday .
Sign Up For the Morning Briefing Newsletter Dr. Anthony Fauci , an infectious diseases expert and a member of the White House coronavirus task force , has said in interviews that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ more weeks until people can start going about their lives in a more normal fashion .
Other infectious disease experts suggest even harsher measures than social distancing are required to truly beat back the outbreaks in the United States .
But at the White House , in recent days , there has been a growing sentiment that medical experts were allowed to set policy that has hurt the economy , and there has been a push to find ways to let people start returning to work .
Some Republican lawmakers have also pleaded @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to restart the economy , as financial markets continue to slide and job losses for April could be in the millions .
Vice President Mike Pence indicated on Sunday at a White House briefing about the virus that the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention would issue new guidelines on Monday , allowing some people who have been exposed to the coronavirus to resume working outside their homes if they wear masks .


climatedepot--2020-03-23--Lorrie Goldstein: We Gambled On The Wrong Threat — Climate Change

`` One of the key lessons from the COVID-19 pandemic is that for at least the past decade , we focused disproportionately , or rather our governments did , on one potential global threat — human-induced climate change — to the exclusion of all others . ''
Protesters hold banners reading “ 180 degree turn ” and “ coronavirus pandemic , the first step in the collapse of our civilization if we do not revolt today ” during a recent demonstration for climate change in Bordeaux , France , despite government recommendations to limit gatherings amid the outbreak of COVID-19 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Getty Images ) Anthropogenic climate change became the issue that sucked up all the oxygen in the room when it came to a global crisis .
At the expense of , for example , a contagious and deadly virus becoming a pandemic , which public health experts have been warning us about for decades .
In Canada , our political leaders , have long ignored — perhaps the fairer word is “ downplayed ” — the health care threat posed by the fact our hospitals are chronically overcrowded , with thousands of patients @ @ @ @ @ @ @ year .
That ’ s why the greatest concern health-care experts have now is that our hospitals , overcrowded in normal times and routinely operating at or beyond their designated capacities — as opposed to 80 % of capacity to be able to handle a “ black swan ” event like COVID-19 — may soon be overrun by critically-ill patients .
Wrong decisions have dire consequences .
We ’ re now facing them .
That ’ s not to say concern about human-induced climate change ( not “ climate change ” as we @ @ @ @ @ @ @ entirely misplaced .
It ’ s one of many serious environmental challenges we face , such as the more than 900 billion litres of raw sewage we ’ ve dumped into our rivers , lakes and oceans since 2013 .
But while human-induced climate change contributes to human suffering and death , it has never been a so-called “ existential ” threat to humanity , meaning , a threat to human existence .
Neither is COVID-19 .
It will eventually burn itself out as have previous pandemics .
The question is how effectively @ @ @ @ @ @ @ it through aggressive social distancing — far harder to do in democracies than it sounds — and how many of us will die or suffer life-changing consequences before there ’ s a vaccine ?
In the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic , some who jumped on the anthropogenic climate change bandwagon early and hard , argue COVID-19 shows us what the world will be like if we don ’ t quickly abandon fossil fuels .
In reality , COVID-19 shows us what the world will be like if we abandon fossil fuels prematurely @ @ @ @ @ @ @ replace them , compounded by the fact many opponents of fossil fuel energy also oppose nuclear power .
As Robert Bryce warns in Power Hungry : The Myths of ‘ Green ’ Energy and the Real Fuels of the Future : “ If you are anti-carbon dioxide and anti-nuclear , you are pro-blackout.
” Consider what the world would be like today , in the face of COVID-19 , without fossil fuel ( and nuclear ) energy , a world climate radicals crave .
Without reliable , on-demand energy sufficient to power a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ wind nor solar power can provide at current levels of technology — our hospitals could not maintain sterile conditions .
Food and vaccines — when one for COVID-19 is developed — could not be preserved or transported .
Medical equipment to protect front-line health care workers from COVID-19 , and respirators for critically-ill patients , could not be delivered where they ’ re needed , let alone manufactured in the first place .
Indeed , if you want to see what the world would be like if we prematurely abandon fossil fuels , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ around , right now , in the age of COVID-19 .


climatedepot--2020-03-23--Cheap Coal May Get Boost In A Post-Pandemic World: ‘A cheap & reliable source of energy to rebuild t

Cheap Coal May Get Boost In A Post-Pandemic World: ‘A cheap & reliable source of energy to rebuild the economy’

Cheap Coal May Get Boost In A Post-Pandemic World OilPrice , 22 March 2020 In a post-pandemic world coal , while having lots of problems , is considered to be a cheap and reliable source of energy to rebuild the economy .
The COVID-19 pandemic has shaken energy markets to the core this year , creating incredible volatility for fuel prices .
The one energy source that hasn ’ t blinked though is coal , a fuel that may come out stronger through the current crisis , a Rystad Energy analysis shows .
The price of coal was already depressed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the demand curtailment in China during the lockdowns was accompanied by a domestic production drop , balancing the market .
Oil , which is used as a fuel in coal mining , has grown cheaper and is seen by Rystad Energy as reducing coal output costs by a few dollars per ton .
“ With ARA prices already so low , any cost decrease will potentially give struggling producers selling to Europe a little breathing room , rather than allowing prices to move down any further , ” says Steve Hulton , Rystad @ @ @ @ @ @ @ research .
The large falls in the currency of the major coal exporting countries like Australia and Russia is a significant , but often overlooked factor with regards to coal prices and margins .
In mid-March , the Australian dollar hit a 17-year low as international investors sought the traditional safety of US dollars ; the Russian ruble has also reached new record lows due to the collapsing oil price .
International coal trades are priced in US dollars , whereas the majority of production costs are generally denominated in local currency terms @ @ @ @ @ @ @ versus the US dollar usually means higher local currency revenues ( or lower costs when converted to US dollars ) .
“ Either way , the higher sales margin gives producers maneuverability to accept lower US dollar coal prices if needed , “ says Hulton .
However , foreign exchange movements won ’ t help any US-based coal producers , and further export price weakness ( plus ongoing local demand destruction due to gas competition ) will only serve to hasten their demise .
A possible outcome of the Covid-19 crisis could be @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and policy regarding the speed of transition towards a low carbon power generating future .
In a post-pandemic world coal , while having lots of problems , is considered to be a cheap and reliable source of energy to rebuild the economy .
Also , in economies struggling to bounce back , there may be less scope for absorbing the unemployment associated with the end of coal mining and power generation .
These factors could potentially lead to a slowing of the rate of the energy transition .
China is an example : @ @ @ @ @ @ @ moving quickly back towards full capacity , and power generation is returning to normal levels .
Thermal coal import demand into China , which rose initially on the back of domestic production shutdowns , is likely to total close to the 2019 annual numbers , though reports indicate that some ports have already reached their 2020 annual quota limits .


climatedepot--2020-03-23--The Biggest CO2 Test Ever: Coronavirus Downgrades ‘Climate Change’ — Possibly For Year To Come! Susp

The Biggest CO2 Test Ever: Coronavirus Downgrades ‘Climate Change’ — Possibly For Year To Come! Suspension Of Carbon Tax & Green Energy Subsidies?!

The current global crisis will be a test of just how much economic pain is required to substantially reduce CO2 emissions .
—Roy W. Spencer , 22 March 2020 1 ) Is the COVID-19 Economic Downturn Affecting Atmospheric CO2 ?
Mauna Loa Data Say , Not Yet Roy W. Spencer , 22 March 2020 No Tricks Zone , 20 March 2020 5 ) U.S. Democrats Want to Include Climate Action in Coronavirus Aid Scientific American , 19 March 2020 6 ) Green Madness : Energy Bill Hikes to Pay For £69m Scots Wind Farm Compensation The Herald , 14 March @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Gambled On The Wrong Threat — Climate Change Toronto Sun , 22 March 2020 8 ) Cheap Coal May Get Boost In A Post-Pandemic World OilPrice , 22 March 2020 9 ) And Finally : How Christopher Booker Took On Liberal Hypocrisy , From Climate Change To Brexit 1 ) Is the COVID-19 Economic Downturn Affecting Atmospheric CO2 ?
Mauna Loa Data Say , Not Yet Roy W. Spencer , 22 March 2020 Some global warming alarmists are celebrating the current economic downturn as just what is needed to avert climate catastrophe .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ that China ’ s manufacturing and commerce might have seen up at 40 % reduction recently .
The current global crisis will be a test of just how much economic pain is required to substantially reduce CO2 emissions ( assuming there is no reasonably affordable and practical replacement for fossil fuels ) .
I already know that some of my “ deep skeptic ” acquaintances ( you know who you are ) who believe the global CO2 increase is mostly natural will claim a continuing CO2 rise in the face of a decrease @ @ @ @ @ @ @ I have previously shown that a simple model of the CO2 variations since 1959 forced with anthropogenic emissions accurately explain the Mauna Loa observations ( see Fig .
2 , explanation here ) .
It will take considerable evidence to convince me that the long-term rise in not anthropogenic , and maybe the current “ coronavirus experiment ” will provide some contrarian evidence .
Of course , for anthropogenic CO2 emissions reductions to have any effect , they actually have to show up in the atmosphere .
The most widely cited monitoring location @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Hawaii .
It is at high elevation in a persistent subtropical high pressure zone that should be able to detect large emissions changes in several weeks time as weather systems move around the world .
I ’ ve had several requests , and seen numerous social media comments , suggesting this is something that should be looked at .
So , I ’ ve analyzed the Mauna Loa CO2 data ( updated monthly ) through February 2020 to see if there is any hint of a CO2 concentration downturn ( or , more @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
The short answer is : No… at least not yet .
While an anthropogenic source of CO2 can explain the long-term rise in CO2 , the trouble with finding an anthropogenic signal on time scale of a few months to a couple years is that natural variations swamp any anthropogenic changes on short time scales .
The monthly data ( arbitrarily starting 1996 , below ) shows a continuing long-term rise that has been occurring since monitoring began in 1958 .
Also seen is the strong seasonal cycle as the vegetation in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ seasonal variations in growth and decay .
Obviously , not much can be discerned from the raw monthly average data in the above plot because the seasonal cycle is so strong .
So , the first step is to remove the seasonal cycle .
I did this by subtracting out a 4th order polynomial fit before removing the average seasonal cycle , then adding that statistical fit back in : Next , there are some wiggles in the data due to El Nino and La Nina ( ENSO ) activity , and if @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that ( a time lag and averaging is involved to increase signal ) , we can get a little better idea of whether the most recent month ( February 2020 ) is out of the ordinary .
I have zeroed in on just the most recent 5 years for clarity .
The polynomial fit to the data ( thin dotted line ) shows what we might expect for the coming months , and we can see that February is not yet departing from the expected values .
Of course , there are a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ average CO2 on a month-to-month basis : Interannual variations in wildfire activity , land vegetation and sea surface temperatures , variations in El Nino and La Nina effects , and short-term fluctuations in anthropogenic emissions immediately come to mind .
( The Pinatubo and El Chichon volcano eruptions actually caused a reduction in global CO2 , probably due to post-eruption vegetation effects from an increase in diffuse sunlight penetration of forest canopies ) .
No Tricks Zone , 20 March 2020 To provide relief from the deepening pandemic crisis , Bavaria Prime Minister @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s carbon tax and renewable energy subsidies which have made electricity rates in Germany among the world ’ s highest .
The draconian measures implemented to cub the so-called COVID-19 pandemic are having a profound impact on the German economy as millions of self-employed have seen business wiped out , and even large industries such as Mercedes , VW and BMW are halting production .
Even worse is the unprecedented ( postwar ) degree of uncertainty that now looms .
How long are the strict measures going to stay in place ?
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ ?
Where ’ s the money to pay for it all going to come from ?
How do we get relief to the citizens ?
Not since WWII has Germany been confronted with such monumental challenges .
One place to start for providing relief , says Bavaria Minister President Markus Söder , is a suspension of the punishing EEG levy and electricity tax , which have made electricity rates in Germany among the world ’ s highest .
reports pv magazine .
Minister President Söder is calling for rapid and extensive aid from @ @ @ @ @ @ @ crashing .
In a speech in the State Parliament in Munich yesterday , Söder called on the Federal Government to come up with a rapid and comprehensive federal aid package for industry , saying 100 to 150 billion euros were needed .
“ Among other things , he called for the suspension of the electricity tax and EEG levy .
This would help many companies and private households , ” reported the online German pv magazine .
Currently German consumers and industry are paying over €20 billion annually in mandatory feed-in tariffs for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
The global focus on coronavirus will come at the expense of attention paid to climate change as governments , investors and companies pursue recovery and growth above all else .
The global focus on coronavirus will come at the expense of attention paid to climate change .
Environmental , social , and corporate governance ( ESG ) investing mandates will become weaker in implementation if not in spirit , as investors and companies pursue recovery and growth above all else .
Countries will utilize their fiscal space on targeted measures to blunt @ @ @ @ @ @ @ whatever is left over for broad fiscal stimulus will only be partially dedicated to “ green ” projects , and to varying degrees across countries .
Further , collapsing oil prices will undercut the competitiveness of cleaner alternative energy sources .
With large-scale protest activity diminished because of social distancing , civil society actors will turn to cyber and online tools to apply pressure on companies and governments , most of which will have less appetite and ability to respond to climate change .
The immediate risk of a clash between politics and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the short term , even if the overarching threat of climate change remains as real as ever .
The United States should pay close attention to developments in Europe , beyond their governments ’ response to the COVID-19 virus .
Other contagions loom .
For example , we now see proof that the retrenchment embodied by the current “ coronavirus economy ” could become legally mandated , with no recovery permitted but only worsening , in the name of climate change .
While extreme , this is actually unfolding , and the United @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
In February , the United Kingdom ’ s Court of Appeal blocked construction of a third runway at London ’ s Heathrow Airport .
While additional runways seem quaint amid travel lockdowns , the longer view reminds us that infrastructure expansion is vital to economic growth .
Ask any candidate for president , vowing massive infrastructure programs that , this ruling confirms , are irreconcilable with their climate promises like the Green New Deal and rejoining the Paris climate treaty .
The Heathrow opinion has caused political and economic upheaval , and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ That is because the decision in Spurrier et al .
v. Secretary of State for Transport requires any airport expansion , and apparently any major infrastructure project going forward , comply with the 2015 Paris agreement .
As only the most recent judicial intervention leveraging purportedly “ non-binding ” commitments into legal obligations , this is also a very timely reminder for the United States .
President Obama agreed to Paris and submitted a ratification instrument on behalf of the U.S in September 2016 , claiming it was not a treaty requiring Senate @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ” was a key talking point in support .
This claim , deficient in too many ways to recount here , is now overtaken by events .
Although the U.K. court also cited the U.K. ’ s own Climate Change Act and European Union Strategic Environmental Assessment ( SEA ) Directive , the judges ruled that the failure to account for the U.K. ’ s promised emission reductions under Paris was “ legally fatal.
” Any expansion plan must satisfy both domestic law and the U.K. ’ s Paris agreement promise to reduce @ @ @ @ @ @ @ hearing this .
The lesson for President Trump is clear : Just because an international agreement doesn ’ t purport to be “ binding ” doesn ’ t mean you don ’ t have to comply with it .
In 2018 , in Urgenda Foundation v. State of the Netherlands , The Hague Court of Appeals also turned these ostensibly hortatory climate promises and declarations into enforceable obligations .
That court ordered the Dutch emission-reduction laws match years of governmental rhetoric manifested in supposedly aspirational climate pacts , asserting that parties to these @ @ @ @ @ @ @ care.
” Cheap environmental virtue can be costly .
Certainly , activist state attorneys general intend to sue .
As The Wall Street Journal ’ s Kim Strassel wrote in 2017 , one of us “ unearthed a legal memo from the New York attorney general ’ s office that laid out a strategy to get courts to force C02 cuts under international treaties.
” Already , federal judges have lined up to block proposed and even permitted projects , such as the Keystone XL Pipeline , citing to the National Environmental Policy @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to consider a project ’ s contribution to cumulative climate impacts .
Under Paris , the United States vowed massive emission reductions and promised deeper cuts , every five years , in perpetuity .
In a June 2017 Rose Garden speech , Mr. Trump announced his intention to withdraw from Paris , citing U.S. sovereignty and “ serious legal and constitutional concerns , ” among others .
Critics pounced .
Why bother , they keened , with seemingly disproportionate and self-contradicting fury , it ’ s not even binding !
Well .
Editorialists @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Mr. Trump would also leave the United States as the only nation not signed up .
Why , even China and India agreed .
But , not really .
Like most countries , China and India did not promise emission reductions under Paris .
Between them , they plan to build 320 airports in the next decade .
The Maldives , self-styled poster child for the horrors of man-made global warming , is opening four more airports this year alone .
That is four more than the U.K. likely will be able to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ Heathrow opinion .
It is also four more than the United States should expect , should it rejoin Paris , which it might .
To judge by its terms , level of detail and commitment , and U.S. custom and practice , Paris is a treaty .
Nonetheless , rather than declare Paris to be a treaty and transmit it to the Senate for a ratification vote , Mr. Trump is withdrawing pursuant to Paris ’ terms .
His November 2019 withdrawal notice takes effect Nov. 4 , 2020 , by chance @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Unfortunately , dignifying this “ pen and a phone ” approach leaves the door wide open for the United States to rejoin Paris under a President Biden or Sanders , who both promise to do so immediately upon taking office .
It is unlikely the president will change course and pursue more durable withdrawal options , and the Senate showed repeatedly under President Obama it has no appetite to fight even to protect its own constitutional prerogatives .
As such , the Heathrow opinion putting the lie to the “ non-binding ” talking @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to the United States about the Paris agreement .
With such a clear distinction between Mr. Trump and his Democratic challengers , and with proof now that a “ coronavirus economy ” could be legally mandated , it is critical the United States have an actual debate about the Paris climate agreement and the larger climate policy agenda .
5 ) U.S. Democrats Want to Include Climate Action in Coronavirus Aid Scientific American , 19 March 2020 Democrats on both sides of Capitol Hill are pushing to add climate change provisions to the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ affected by the novel coronavirus pandemic .
But it ’ s unclear whether they have the political leverage to make those ideas stick—at least not yet .
The Democratic proposals touch on two main areas .
Several Senate Democrats want airlines to reduce their carbon emissions in exchange for federal aid that could hit $ 50 billion or more .
House Democrats , meanwhile , are looking at clean-tech tax credits .
Those include incentives for electric vehicles , battery storage , offshore wind and solar energy that were left out of a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ have precedent .
In 2009 , when the Obama administration bailed out the auto industry to the tune of $ 80 billion , it conditioned aid on improvements in vehicle fuel efficiency .
For one thing , Democrats lack leverage with Republicans in control of the Senate and the White House .
For another , there ’ s broad consensus that Congress must act quickly to provide relief to affected Americans .
Democrats don ’ t want to be seen as slowing down emergency aid with climate demands .
6 ) Green Madness @ @ @ @ @ @ @ £69m Scots Wind Farm Compensation The Herald , 14 March 2020 HOUSEHOLDS are facing a huge hike in their energy bills after a record surge in subsidy payments to switch off Scottish wind farm turbines partly caused by them producing too much power , an analysis has found .
In the two months of this year , £69 million was paid out in constraint payments , according to research by the Renewable Energy Foundation which described it as an “ extreme spike ” .
This is four times greater than the previous most @ @ @ @ @ @ @ was in 2016 .
The money is given out as compensation to energy firms for turning off turbines when the network is unable to cope with the power they produce .
The payments which kicked in in 2010 , come when wind power in Scotland exceeds local demand but can not be exported to England due to insufficient grid infrastructure .
REF said the surge in payments was partly because of strong winds , which means farms are generating too much power .
It is also said it was because wider network reinforcement @ @ @ @ @ @ @ wind sector growth in Scotland where government continues to approve wind farms in spite of the constraints ” .
Last year , the total paid was £130 million , which was at that point the largest to date and the REF say that 2020 is likely to be a record year .
The payments are made by the National Grid but charged to consumers and added to electricity bills .
7 ) Lorrie Goldstein : We Gambled On The Wrong Threat — Climate Change Toronto Sun , 22 March 2020 One of the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that for at least the past decade , we focused disproportionately , or rather our governments did , on one potential global threat — human-induced climate change — to the exclusion of all others .
Protesters hold banners reading “ 180 degree turn ” and “ coronavirus pandemic , the first step in the collapse of our civilization if we do not revolt today ” during a recent demonstration for climate change in Bordeaux , France , despite government recommendations to limit gatherings amid the outbreak of COVID-19 .
( Photo by AFP @ @ @ @ @ @ @ banners reading “ 180 degree turn ” and “ coronavirus pandemic , the first step in the collapse of our civilization if we do not revolt today ” during a recent demonstration for climate change in Bordeaux , France , despite government recommendations to limit gatherings amid the outbreak of COVID-19 .
( Photo by AFP , via Getty Images ) Anthropogenic climate change became the issue that sucked up all the oxygen in the room when it came to a global crisis .
At the expense of , for example , a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , which public health experts have been warning us about for decades .
In Canada , our political leaders , have long ignored — perhaps the fairer word is “ downplayed ” — the health care threat posed by the fact our hospitals are chronically overcrowded , with thousands of patients being treated in hallways , year after year .
That ’ s why the greatest concern health-care experts have now is that our hospitals , overcrowded in normal times and routinely operating at or beyond their designated capacities — as opposed to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to handle a “ black swan ” event like COVID-19 — may soon be overrun by critically-ill patients .
Wrong decisions have dire consequences .
We ’ re now facing them .
That ’ s not to say concern about human-induced climate change ( not “ climate change ” as we obsessively and incorrectly describe it ) was entirely misplaced .
It ’ s one of many serious environmental challenges we face , such as the more than 900 billion litres of raw sewage we ’ ve dumped into our rivers , lakes @ @ @ @ @ @ @ human-induced climate change contributes to human suffering and death , it has never been a so-called “ existential ” threat to humanity , meaning , a threat to human existence .
Neither is COVID-19 .
It will eventually burn itself out as have previous pandemics .
The question is how effectively and for how long can we contain it through aggressive social distancing — far harder to do in democracies than it sounds — and how many of us will die or suffer life-changing consequences before there ’ s a vaccine ?
In @ @ @ @ @ @ @ some who jumped on the anthropogenic climate change bandwagon early and hard , argue COVID-19 shows us what the world will be like if we don ’ t quickly abandon fossil fuels .
In reality , COVID-19 shows us what the world will be like if we abandon fossil fuels prematurely , without having reliable energy sources to replace them , compounded by the fact many opponents of fossil fuel energy also oppose nuclear power .
As Robert Bryce warns in Power Hungry : The Myths of ‘ Green ’ Energy and the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ If you are anti-carbon dioxide and anti-nuclear , you are pro-blackout.
” Consider what the world would be like today , in the face of COVID-19 , without fossil fuel ( and nuclear ) energy , a world climate radicals crave .
Without reliable , on-demand energy sufficient to power a modern , industrialized society — which neither wind nor solar power can provide at current levels of technology — our hospitals could not maintain sterile conditions .
Food and vaccines — when one for COVID-19 is developed — could not be preserved @ @ @ @ @ @ @ front-line health care workers from COVID-19 , and respirators for critically-ill patients , could not be delivered where they ’ re needed , let alone manufactured in the first place .
Indeed , if you want to see what the world would be like if we prematurely abandon fossil fuels , all you have to do is look around , right now , in the age of COVID-19 .
8 ) Cheap Coal May Get Boost In A Post-Pandemic World OilPrice , 22 March 2020 In a post-pandemic world coal , while having @ @ @ @ @ @ @ be a cheap and reliable source of energy to rebuild the economy .
The COVID-19 pandemic has shaken energy markets to the core this year , creating incredible volatility for fuel prices .
The one energy source that hasn ’ t blinked though is coal , a fuel that may come out stronger through the current crisis , a Rystad Energy analysis shows .
The price of coal was already depressed before the corona virus crisis , and the demand curtailment in China during the lockdowns was accompanied by a domestic production drop @ @ @ @ @ @ @ which is used as a fuel in coal mining , has grown cheaper and is seen by Rystad Energy as reducing coal output costs by a few dollars per ton .
“ With ARA prices already so low , any cost decrease will potentially give struggling producers selling to Europe a little breathing room , rather than allowing prices to move down any further , ” says Steve Hulton , Rystad Energy ’ s Head of Global coal research .
The large falls in the currency of the major coal exporting countries like @ @ @ @ @ @ @ but often overlooked factor with regards to coal prices and margins .
In mid-March , the Australian dollar hit a 17-year low as international investors sought the traditional safety of US dollars ; the Russian ruble has also reached new record lows due to the collapsing oil price .
International coal trades are priced in US dollars , whereas the majority of production costs are generally denominated in local currency terms .
Therefore , a weaker exchange rate versus the US dollar usually means higher local currency revenues ( or lower costs when @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Either way , the higher sales margin gives producers maneuverability to accept lower US dollar coal prices if needed , “ says Hulton .
However , foreign exchange movements won ’ t help any US-based coal producers , and further export price weakness ( plus ongoing local demand destruction due to gas competition ) will only serve to hasten their demise .
A possible outcome of the Covid-19 crisis could be an unexpected subtle shift in public opinion and policy regarding the speed of transition towards a low carbon power generating future .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ having lots of problems , is considered to be a cheap and reliable source of energy to rebuild the economy .
Also , in economies struggling to bounce back , there may be less scope for absorbing the unemployment associated with the end of coal mining and power generation .
These factors could potentially lead to a slowing of the rate of the energy transition .
China is an example : Coal mining capacity is now reported as moving quickly back towards full capacity , and power generation is returning to normal levels @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , which rose initially on the back of domestic production shutdowns , is likely to total close to the 2019 annual numbers , though reports indicate that some ports have already reached their 2020 annual quota limits .
9 ) And Finally : How Christopher Booker Took On Liberal Hypocrisy , From Climate Change To Brexit Allison Pearson , The Daily Telegraph , 22 March 2020 Allison Pearson reviews Groupthink : A Study in Self Delusion , by Christopher Booker Christopher Booker , late-lamented sage of this parish , should go down in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , at the very least , its contrary old uncle .
One of the founding satirists of Private Eye and a much-loved columnist for the Sunday Telegraph , in the 1990s Booker took a promising young fellow by the name of Nigel under his wing .
He suggested that his new friend should stand for the European Parliament , the better to destroy it from within .
When I spoke to Nigel Farage recently , he became quite emotional , telling me that he owed everything to “ this literary giant ” who @ @ @ @ @ @ @ than a tiddler attached himself to me and came and spoke at village halls across the country.
” Booker ’ s influence on Farage , both personally and intellectually , was immense .
Brexit couldn ’ t have happened without Nigel Farage and Farage would not have become that force which obliged David Cameron to hold a referendum on EU membership without Christopher Booker .
Alas , our veteran columnist died last July before he could savour the triumph of the UK finally departing the European Union , but he did leave behind @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Groupthink : A Study in Self-Delusion is as much of a book as he could manage to write as his powers failed him .
In a beautiful Afterword , his son , Nicholas Booker , paints a stirring picture of his father at the end of his life “ still just able to see his screen and keyboard ( many of the hammered letters had long since fled ) ” .
On the days when he thought he would be able to make it back up the stairs , he sat at his @ @ @ @ @ @ @ laborious , one-fingered typing .
It took tremendous determination.
” The torches that Christopher used to find his way up the church path to lock its door each night “ were now required to help him read , even in broad daylight ” .
Booker fans may find themselves smiling fondly at the thought of their half-blind hero , still furiously communicating , still trying to help us see more clearly amidst the dying of the light .
The book begins in early 2019 with the author trying to account for a world @ @ @ @ @ @ @ divisions which even a decade ago would have been hard to imagine ” .
He singles out Islamist terrorism , the European Union , the secular religion of climate change ( very much not a believer ! )
, a rift between the ruled and their rulers and identity politics .
Underlying all of them is “ the peculiar social pressure to conform with a whole range of views deemed to be ‘ politically correct ’ marked out in those caught up in it by their aggressive intolerance of anything or anyone who @ @ @ @ @ @ @ For a scientific explanation of this growing zealotry , Booker turned to a thesis put forward more than 40 years ago by Irving Janis , a professor of psychology at Yale University .
In “ The Victims of Groupthink ” , Janis observed how “ a group of people come to be fixated on some belief or view of the world which is hugely important to them .
They are convinced that their opinion is so self-evidently right that no sensible person could disagree with it .
Most telling of all , this @ @ @ @ @ @ @ from their beliefs with a peculiar kind of contemptuous hostility ” .
Janis used this theory to account for several notorious fiascos of US foreign policy – failure to heed intelligence about Japanese plans to attack Pearl Harbour being one example – in which a group made decisions based on how they would ideally like the world to be , not according to the realities of the situation .
What strikes the modern reader is Janis ’ s uncanny premonition of today ’ s “ cancel culture ” in which an individual expressing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ liberal orthodoxy can be no-platformed .
see also – Christopher Booker : Global Warming : A Case Study in Groupthink


climatedepot--2020-03-24--Los Angeles Times: Why this Nobel laureate predicts a quicker coronavirus recovery: ‘We’re going to

Los Angeles Times: Why this Nobel laureate predicts a quicker coronavirus recovery: ‘We’re going to be fine’

Michael Levitt , a Nobel laureate and Stanford biophysicist , began analyzing the number of COVID-19 cases worldwide in January and correctly calculated that China would get through the worst of its coronavirus outbreak long before many health experts had predicted .
Now he foresees a similar outcome in the United States and the rest of the world .
While many epidemiologists are warning of months , or even years , of massive social disruption and millions of deaths , Levitt says the data simply don ’ t support such a dire scenario — especially in areas where reasonable social @ @ @ @ @ @ @ What we need is to control the panic , ” he said .
In the grand scheme , “ we ’ re going to be fine.
” Here ’ s what Levitt noticed in China : On Jan. 31 , the country had 46 new deaths due to the novel coronavirus , compared with 42 new deaths the day before .
Although the number of daily deaths had increased , the rate of that increase had begun to ease off .
In his view , the fact that new cases were being identified @ @ @ @ @ @ @ than the number of new cases itself .
It was an early sign that the trajectory of the outbreak had shifted .
Think of the outbreak as a car racing down an open highway , he said .
Although the car was still gaining speed , it ’ s not accelerating as rapidly as before .
“ This suggests that the rate of increase in number of the deaths will slow down even more over the next week , ” Levitt wrote in a report he sent to friends Feb. 1 that was @ @ @ @ @ @ @ And soon , he predicted , the number of deaths would be decreasing every day .
Three weeks later , Levitt told the China Daily News that the virus ’ rate of growth had peaked .
He predicted that the total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases in China would end up around 80,000 , with about 3,250 deaths .
This forecast turned out to be remarkably accurate : As of March 16 , China had counted a total of 80,298 cases and 3,245 deaths — in a nation of nearly 1.4 billion people @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
The number of newly diagnosed patients has dropped to around 25 a day , with no cases of community spread reported since Wednesday .


climatedepot--2020-03-24--Plastic Bag Bans Put on Hold Over Concerns About the Cleanliness of Reusable Bags Amid Coronavirus F

Plastic Bag Bans Put on Hold Over Concerns About the Cleanliness of Reusable Bags Amid Coronavirus Fears

A number of states and cities that implemented bans on plastic bags are putting them on hold over concerns about @ @ @ @ @ amidst the COVID-19 pandemic .
Last week , the Massachusetts Food Administration asked Governor Charlie @ @ @ @ @ plastic bags in several towns over concerns that handling the reusable bags poses a threat @ @ @ @ @ While some viruses are known to survive in reusable shopping bags for up to nine @ @ @ @ @ evidence so far that the novel coronavirus does , according to Massachusetts ’ neighbors seem @ @ @ @ @ trajectory .
New York State , which implemented its plastic bag ban on March 1 @ @ @ @ @ off enforcement until at least May 15 , according to the state ’ s Department @ @ @ @ @ .


climatedepot--2020-03-24--‘How Embarrassing. This Is a National Emergency’ –  Wind and Solar try a 11th hour sneak

“ Are you kidding me ?
This is the moment to debate new regulations that have nothing to do with this crisis ?
… Democrats won ’ t let us fund hospitals or save small businesses unless they get to dust off the Green New Deal ?
” “ I ’ ll tell you what will really lower our carbon footprint — if the entire economy continues to crumble….
” Whatever your take on the federal stimulus bill , the Malthusian Left , hitching their wagon to the climate ‘ crisis ’ and the Green New Deal , is determined @ @ @ @ @ @ @ their anti-modernism crusade has hit a new low point in the current Senate debate over the Coronavirus Aid , Relief , and Economic Security Act .
Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell has had enough and spoke to the nation about where the radical wing of the Democratic Party wants to go in a time of emergency .
“ For days now , we have been engaged in intense bipartisan talks to build emergency relief legislation on an historic scale , ” McConnell stated yesterday .
“ Democrats and Republicans … crafted this version @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are some of the items on the Democratic wish-list over which they chose to block the legislation last night .
• Provisions to force employers to give special new treatment to Big Labor .
• And listen to this — new emissions standards for the airlines .
“ Are you kidding me ?
This is the moment to debate new regulations that have nothing to do with this crisis ?
That ’ s what they ’ re up to over there .
The American people need to know it .
“ Democrats won @ @ @ @ @ @ @ save small businesses unless they get to dust off the Green New Deal ?
“ I would like to see Senate Democrats tell the New York City doctors and nurses , who are literally overrun as we speak , that they are filibustering hospital funding and more masks because they want to argue with the airlines over their carbon footprint .
“ I would like to see Senate Democrats tell small businesses employees in their states , who are literally being laid off every day , that they are filibustering relief that will @ @ @ @ @ @ @ special interest friends want to squeeze employers while they ’ re vulnerable .
“ I would like to see Senate Democrats tell all the American seniors who have seen their hard-earned retirement savings melt away , as the markets track towards their worst month since 1931 , that they ’ re continuing to hold up emergency measures over tax credits for solar panels .
“ So these are just a few of the completely non-germane wish-list items .
Eleventh-hour demands that Democrats have decided are more important than Americans ’ paychecks and the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ Remember what one of Speaker Pelosi ’ s top lieutenants in the House said a few days ago ?
Quote : “ This is a tremendous opportunity to restrict things to fit our vision.
” That ’ s the Democratic Whip over in the House , just laying it out there .
“ And we heard something similar here on the Senate floor last night .
Here was one of our Democratic colleagues .
Quote : “ How many times are we going to get a shot at a $ 1-trillion-plus program @ @ @ @ @ @ @ how many trillion-plus packages we ’ re going to have !
” “ How embarrassing .
Talking like this is some juicy political opportunity .
This is a national emergency .
“ We had days of productive bipartisan talks to get to this point… .
But then , yesterday morning , the Speaker of the House flew back from San Francisco .
And suddenly the Senate ’ s serious bipartisan process turned into this left-wing episode of Supermarket Sweep .
Unrelated issues left and right .
“ I ’ ll tell you what @ @ @ @ @ @ @ if the entire economy continues to crumble , with hundreds of thousands more Americans laid off , because Senate Democrats won ’ t let us act !
“ This has to stop .
And today is the day it has to stop .
The country is out of time… .
It is time for that good faith to be reciprocated .
It is time for Democrats to stop playing politics and step up to the plate.
” Kudos to Mitch McConnell for exposing the ruse of parasitic energies whose future is tied to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Economic turmoil calls for consolidation and efficiency , not continuing to prop up the uneconomic .
Wind and solar subsides should cease–as should special subsidies to other energies .
With oil , for example , that means the feds not filling the Strategic Petroleum Reserve with small producer oil , the subject of tomorrow ’ s post .


climatedepot--2020-03-24--Infectious medicine Professor says the current response to the Coronavirus is ‘Grotesque, Absurd and

Infectious medicine Professor says the current response to the Coronavirus is ‘Grotesque, Absurd and Very Dangerous’

A recent interview with Professor Dr Sucharit Bhakdi , an infectious medicine specialist .
The Professor is one of the most highly cited medical research scientists in Germany .
He was head of the Institute for Medical Microbiology at the Johannes Gutenberg University of Mainz , one of Germany ’ s most distinguished seats of learning .
The transcript is below .
Those who wish to watch the German original with English subtitles may do so here : https : //www.youtube.com/watch ?
v=JBB9bA-gXL4 ( NB Interview dates form 18th March so please note one of the figures he gives for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ date .
It is not mistaken ) .
Q : Today we will talk about the Corona Virus .
This virus spreads fear over the whole world .
Also in Germany , a state of emergency imposes extreme restrictions .
What are Corona viruses ?
Prof Bhakdi : “ These viruses coexist with humans and animals around the globe .
They are the cause of very common minor diseases of the respiratory tract .
Very often , infections remain subclinical without symptoms .
Severe courses occur almost exclusively in elderly patients with other @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and heart .
“ Now however a new member is on stage spreading fear around the world .
“ The new COVID-19 originated in China and spread rapidly .
It appeared to be accompanied by an unexpectedly high number of deaths .
Alarming reports followed from Northern Italy that concurred with the Chinese experience .
It must however be pointed out that the large majority of other outbreaks in other parts of the world appeared to display lower apparent mortality rates , and such high numbers of 4 % , 5 % or @ @ @ @ @ @ @ example in South Korea the apparent mortality rate was 1 % .
” Q : Why do you say “ apparent ” mortality rate ?
Prof Bhakdi : “ When patients concurrently have other illnesses , an infectious agent must not be held solely responsible for a lethal outcome .
This happens for COVID- 19 but such a conclusion is false and gives rise to the danger that other important factors are overlooked .
Different mortality rates may well be due to different local situations .
For example , what does Northern Italy @ @ @ @ @ @ @ : Horrific air pollution , the highest in the world .
Northern Italy is the China of Europe .
The lungs of inhabitants there have been chronically injured over decades .
And for this simple reason the situation may not be comparable to elsewhere.
” Prof Bhakdi : “ The virus has also spread to us .
It is spreading in Germany .
One most important consequence being that we now have sufficient data to gauge the true nature of the virus in our country.The highest alert level has been proclaimed and extreme @ @ @ @ @ @ @ desperate attempt to retard spread of the virus .
“ Yes and this is the incredible tragedy .
Because all these adopted measures are actually senseless .
“ The first one : Does the virus generally cause more serious illness in young people and kill patients who have no concurring illness ?
This would make them different from other everyday Corona viruses of the world .
The answer is clearly : NO .
“ We have 10,000 infections reported ( 18th March 2020 ) .
99.5 % have no or only mild symptoms @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is false and dangerous to talk about 10,000 “ patients ” .
They are not seriously ill. ‘ Infection ’ is not identical with ‘ disease ’ Of the 10,000 infected people , only 50-60 were severely ill. And 30 died to the present day .
“ So we have an apparent mortality rate of 1 COVID-19 positive case per day .
Up to now .
“ The looming worst case scenario that must be prevented according to the authorities is that we would have 1 million cases and maybe 3,000 deaths in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ deaths a day.
” Q : The aim is to prevent this “ worst case scenario ” ?
All current emergency measures aim to slow down virus spread to save lives .
Prof Bhakdi : “ Yes .
But we are looking already at the worst case scenario – with 30 deaths a day .
30 deaths a day may sound like very much .
Keep in mind that every day , 2,200 over 65 year olds depart from us , here in Germany .
How many are not known , so let @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is surely too low ) .
“ This would translate to 22 a day .
And these die every day .
The only difference is that we do not talk about “ Corona-deaths ” Because we know that these viruses are normally not the major cause of death .
So what we are doing in the moment is to prevent these these 22 being replaced by 30 COVID-19 positive patients .
This is what is happening .
We are afraid that 1,000,000 infections with the new virus will lead to 30 deaths a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ But we do not realise that 20 , 30 or 40 or 100 patients positive for normal Corona viruses are already dying every day .
“ To avoid CO|VID-19 entering the scene instead of the other Corona viruses , extreme measures are installed.
’ Q : So what do you think about them ?
Prof Bhakdi : : “ They are grotesque , absurd and very dangerous .
“ Our elderly citizens have every right to make efforts not to belong to the 2200 who daily embark on their last journey .
Social @ @ @ @ @ @ @ music , travel and holiday recreation , sports and hobbies , etc , etc , all help to prolong their stay on earth .
The life expectancy of millions is being shortened .
The horrifying impact on world economy threatens the existence of countless people .
The consequences on medical care are profound .
Already services to patients who are in need are reduced , operations cancelled , practices empty , hospital personnel dwindling .
All this will impact profoundly on our whole society .
I can only say that all these measures @ @ @ @ @ @ @ because of nothing but a spook.
” ( A note on the YouTube translation : No comments have been altered in either the spirit or meaning of the language .
Where sentences have been altered in the translation , this is a common requirement for German to English translations .
This is due to German having a far larger and wider vocabulary than English , so these minor alterations are normal so as to be able to simplify sentences to make them comfortably understandable in the English language .
The only fault in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ point ( for the UK ) has been left out ( probably due to closed captions timing in the subtitling – a common problem with YouTube subtitles ) .
This point is that the apparent mortality rate in England is 0.3 % ( at 1:39 to 1:43 in the video ) .


climatedepot--2020-03-24--RIP: Coronavirus Has Killed Europe’s Green Deal – Will U.S. Green New Deal Follow?

1 ) Coronavirus Throws EU ’ s Green Deal Into Disarray Dave Keating , Forbes , 24 March 20202 ) EU Carbon Market Faces Collapse As Electricity Demands Drops EurActiv , 24 March 2020 5 ) U.N .
Shifts Focus From Climate Change To Coronavirus Nathanial Gronewold , E & E News on March 23 , 2020 6 ) Harry Wilkinson : We Mustn ’ t Let Green Lobbyists Use Coronavirus To Turn Us Back Into The ‘ Sick Man Of Europe ’ Global Vision , 23 March 2020 1 ) Coronavirus Throws EU ’ s Green Deal Into Disarray @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 2020Much remains uncertain as the effects of the Coronavirus ravage economies .
But what seems clear is that any assumptions made about transitioning to the green economy have now been rendered obsolete .
[ … ] The EU ’ s Green Deal , with its target to completely decarbonize by 2050 proposed earlier this month , has not taken the massive economic and social disruption of Coronavirus into account .
Assumptions made just a few weeks ago will now have to be completely revised .
There is particular urgency to revise the EU @ @ @ @ @ @ @ by 40 % by 2030 , adopted in 2014 .
Máximo Miccinilli , Energy Director at the Center on Regulation in Europe ( CERRE ) , says this 2030 strategy is the “ most exposed element ” of EU climate policy to Coronavirus risks , after the ETS .
The European Commission ’ s climate plan aims at defining mandatory trajectories over the next three decades.
” he says .
“ There is , however , an urgent need for including in the modelling exercise the implications of a global sanitary-economic crisis of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the Commission must define “ new scenarios that include lower industrial outputs , crises in strategic sectors – e.g .
aviation , automobile , tourism , etcetera – lower carbon prices and other fundamental , socio-demographic developments which would result from a potential five-year long recession.
” This should be in addition to urgent measures taken to adjust the ETS , he says .
Climate campaigners have argued that economic recovery measures that don ’ t take the Green Deal into account risk destroying Europe ’ s chances of meeting the Paris Agreement @ @ @ @ @ @ @ governments flood the economy with unprecedented bailout funding , much of that funding will go to emissions-intensive sectors like aviation and industry .
And politicians that have been sceptical about EU climate action are already saying the outbreak means that efforts to tackle climate change should be suspended , while industry is propped up .
Czech Prime Minister Andrej Babiš said last week that the EU should “ forget about ” the Green Deal for now while it focuses on Coronavirus .
This was backed by Jan Zahradil , the conservative vice chair @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on International Trade , who said the crisis means climate plans should be reconsidered .
“ No post-virus economy in Europe will be able to handle it , it ’ s too expensive , ” he said on Twitter .
Poland ’ s Deputy Minister of State Assets Janusz Kowalski said last week the ETS should be shut down entirely to allow an increase in coal power generation to lower power prices .
Other conservative lawmakers have already called on the European Commission to delay or weaken new carbon dioxide emissions standards for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
The industry itself hasn ’ t yet called for such a suspension , but Eric-Mark Huitema , the director of European automotive industry association ACEA , said last week that the current situation is “ the worst crisis ever to impact the automotive industry ” .
“ With all manufacturing coming to a standstill and the retail network effectively closed , the jobs of some 14 million Europeans are now at stake , ” he said .
The idea of such unrestrained bailouts to polluting industries is horrifying climate campaigners , who @ @ @ @ @ @ @ place a framework to lower European emissions is about to be undone in a matter of weeks .
They stress that it doesn ’ t have to be this way .
Every country in Europe has seen electricity demand decrease by 2 to 7 % week-on-week as coronavirus-related confinement measures were enforced , according to new research by Ember , a climate think tank .
Some analysts are now calling for urgent measures to prevent the EU carbon market from collapsing .
The steepest fall occurred in Italy , the first EU country @ @ @ @ @ @ @ coronavirus outbreak , Ember said in a new study , released on Monday ( 23 March ) .
Italy , Spain and probably France show twice the impact of any other country , according to Dave Jones , an electricity analyst at Ember .
UK electricity demand has been the least impacted so far , he said , due to the government ’ s late response to the coronavirus crisis .
“ These are very significant falls in the context of electricity demand , where temperature-adjusted changes are normally small , ” Jones @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , the fall in electricity demand reached 20 % over the last two weeks .
The impact of confinement measures there was visible early on , with a decrease in electricity demand already observed in the week of 2-8 March , Ember said .
And a further fall in demand is expected to happen after the Italian government announced new lockdown measures on Sunday ( 22 March ) , ordering factory closures and halting all production considered “ non-essential ” .
This means “ even more industry and services will shut down and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ exceed 20 % , ” Jones said .
There is a silver lining to this .
Last week , German think-tank Agora Energiewende reported a dive in CO2 emissions related to falling electricity demand .
German industry alone is on track to emit 10 to 25 million tons less CO2 than business as usual , according to the think-tank ’ s projections , meaning Germany could end up reaching and even exceeding its climate target for 2020 .
But the falling price of electricity is also threatening the EU carbon market , which @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of the demand slump because of an oversupply of CO2 allowances , according to Máximo Miccinilli from the Centre on Regulation in Europe , a Brussels-based think tank .
Clean energy and climate advocates say the huge stimulus bill Congress is negotiating should address not only the economy , but also climate change .
But a split over that appears to have contributed to delays in passing the bill .
“ Democrats won ’ t let us fund hospitals or save small businesses unless they get to dust off the Green New Deal @ @ @ @ @ @ @ said Monday .
McConnell said Democrats were filibustering the $ 1 trillion-plus bill hoping to include policies such as extending tax credits for solar and wind energy .
Two trade groups , the Solar Energy Industries Association ( SEIA ) and American Wind Energy Association ( AWEA ) , sent a joint letter to members of Congress last week saying that extending the credits “ would allow our member companies to hire thousands of additional workers and inject billions in the U.S. economy.
” The share of solar and wind energy in the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , without help , the SEIA estimates the solar industry could see as much as 50 percent of residential solar jobs lost this year due to the pandemic .
AWEA estimates $ 43 billion dollars of investments and payments , mostly in the rural communities where wind projects usually are built , is at risk .
“ The COVID-19 pandemic is harming the wind industry ’ s ability to build the wind farms envisioned by Congressional legislation and putting at risk 35,000 wind energy jobs , ” says Tom Kiernan , Chief Executive @ @ @ @ @ @ @ senators also called on fellow lawmakers to tie financial help for airlines and cruise lines to new environmental requirements that would reduce their carbon footprints .
McConnell says this is the wrong time to debate policies like these , and the focus should be on addressing the effects of the pandemic .
But others argue now is precisely the right time to think about climate change .
PARIS/BRUSSELS ( Reuters ) – European airlines crippled by the coronavirus have demanded lasting relief from environmental taxes – in a move that pits their immediate @ @ @ @ @ @ @ looming tax tussle underscores shifting environmental battle lines and a broader question for governments injecting billions into their afflicted economies : Should bailouts come before climate objectives or rather be used to advance them ?
The airline sector has been fighting a losing battle against tax in Europe .
Governments have imposed new levies to slow growth in traffic and emissions , while the European Union plans to begin taxing jet fuel .
“ This industry is going to have more taxes , not less taxes , and I think you all know @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Henrik Hololei told airline CEOs in Brussels this month .
“ So you can indulge yourselves with a study of what it would be like if there were no taxes – but the reality is unfortunately much harsher.
” That reality is being put to the test .
Within days of the meeting , the pandemic had dramatically worsened , forcing airlines to suspend most flights , lay off thousands of staff and seek government aid to avert collapse .
Besides public cash , airlines are pushing to defer or waive of a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ After the crisis we hope governments will understand that the fragility of this industry is due to low margins and heavy cost of capital , ” the head of the International Air Transport Association ( IATA ) said .
“ And that it is not economically and financially wise to increase taxation on a sector that is structurally fragile and financially weak , ” Alexandre de Juniac told reporters .
With airlines at the front of bailout queues , green advocates fear climate action may lose momentum , just as it did @ @ @ @ @ @ @ oil prices also work against pricier aviation biofuels .
Some are calling for aid to depend on emissions cuts .
“ Public money should support the technologies of the future and not reinforce the mistakes of the past , ” said Andrew Murphy of Transport & Environment .
The campaign group wants airlines to be forced to use more low-carbon fuel and pay tax on kerosene and international ticket sales , in return for bailouts .
“ Airlines calling for public support in bad times should accept they need to start paying taxes @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
U.S. Democratic lawmakers have also proposed requiring airlines to cut emissions by 25 % within 15 years and 50 % by 2050 in return for $ 40 billion in grants .
5 ) U.N .
Shifts Focus From Climate Change To Coronavirus Nathanial Gronewold , E & E News on March 23 , 2020 The novel coronavirus pandemic is now the world ’ s top priority .
Climate change will have to be put on the back burner , for now .
That was the message delivered to reporters from U.N. Secretary-General @ @ @ @ @ @ @ press conference he organized last week .
Guterres made himself available only electronically because he is in isolation .
Though Guterres still is urging countries to not lose sight of the global warming challenge and the Paris climate accord , the U.N. chief made it clear that all resources for now will be directed toward tackling the pandemic crisis .
“ It has been proven that the virus can be contained .
It must be contained , ” Guterres said .
“ If you let the virus spread like wildfire , especially in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , it will kill millions of people.
” Guterres called the virus outbreak one of the worst crises the United Nations has ever faced .
He said a steep and painful global recession is all but inevitable and that millions of families worldwide stand to lose their livelihoods .
Efforts to reduce poverty could be set back decades .
“ We are facing a global health crisis unlike any in the 75-year history of the United Nations , one that is spreading human suffering , infecting the global economy and upending the people @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
“ A global recession , perhaps of record dimensions , is a near certainty.
” 6 ) Harry Wilkinson : We Mustn ’ t Let Green Lobbyists Use Coronavirus To Turn Us Back Into The ‘ Sick Man Of Europe ’ Global Vision , 23 March 2020 As politicians eventually move on to the task of rebuilding after this crisis , it is crucial that their efforts do not become hijacked by a pernicious form of green wishful thinking .
In response to the unfolding coronavirus crisis , many commentators have been @ @ @ @ @ @ @ might or even should have for energy markets .
This is an extremely volatile time , and we should be careful before jumping to conclusions .
Once this terrible disaster is over , the overriding priority needs to be on enabling a rapid return to economic growth and stability .
Those who advocate exploiting the crisis to impose radical new decarbonisation policies are guilty of a dangerous kind of magical thinking .
The Executive Director of the International Energy Agency ( IEA ) , Dr Fatih Birol , has opportunistically announced that we @ @ @ @ @ @ @ heart of stimulus plans to counter the coronavirus crisis ’ .
Why exactly building new wind turbines would make a sensible stimulus plan compared to other approaches is not explained , suffice to say it is justified on the basis that it will both stimulate the economy and ‘ accelerate clean energy transitions ’ .
To say that such plans will simulate the economy doesn ’ t really tell you anything ; a government could do this by paying people to do almost anything .
A sensible stimulus plan should be well-targeted and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ heard any good reasons why investing in clean energy would be either of these things .
There is greater reason to believe it would be a most iniquitous strategy .
The history of climate change policies , from grants to pay for expensive electric vehicles to green energy subsidies that have primarily benefited large landowners , is one of ordinary people paying the privileged few to feel good about themselves .
On what basis are we to think the regressive distributional basis of crony green capitalism has changed ?
The early signals are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the galvanising effect that green activists crave .
For a start , it creates new problems for a renewable energy sector that is already struggling .
Figures from Bloomberg New Energy Finance show that investment in renewables has flatlined since 2015 .
Now , solar panel and wind turbine manufacturers are facing significant disruption to global supply chains .
In the United States , this could mean that projects fail to qualify for lucrative tax credits because they can not meet building deadlines .
Lower fossil fuel prices will not help either .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ the list of priorities for many governments .
As exactly it should do when they are dealing with a much more immediate crisis .
The Czech Prime Minister has said that the EU should abandon its ‘ Green New Deal ’ to focus on fighting the spread of coronavirus , and a Polish minister has said that the EU ’ s Emissions Trading System ( ETS ) should be scrapped .
Britain faces the postponement of the COP26 climate summit that it is planning to host in Glasgow this November .
If the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ not be a difficult choice to put the health of citizens first .
These developments have environmental activists and the rent-seeking renewable energy lobby terrified that their beloved climate change is no longer centre stage .
But we should not write them off yet .
They aim to persuade everyone that decarbonisation is simultaneously the solution to every problem under the sun : world poverty , gender inequality , racial inequality , the persecution of indigenous peoples and now spectacularly the coronavirus pandemic too .
They will not stop claiming that so-called clean @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
If Jeremy Warner is correct , they may just get their way .
Writing in The Telegraph , he warns that just as government control of the economy in wartime led to the Post War Consensus , so this crisis will ensure a shift to the left .
Such attitudinal changes , and the normalisation of radical government intervention , could well inspire politicians to double down on their decarbonisation obsession .
As politicians eventually move on to the task of rebuilding after this crisis , it is crucial that their efforts @ @ @ @ @ @ @ form of green wishful thinking .
In this dark moment , it is inspiring to see the community come together for the common good .
That new-found public spiritedness is a wonderful thing , but it can easily be misdirected by those in power .
We should do well to remember the lessons of Britain ’ s post-war period , when we became known as ‘ the sick man of Europe ’ .
Let us not make the same mistakes all over again .
Harry Wilkinson is Head of Policy at the Global @ @ @


climatedepot--2020-03-24--Reagan’s economist Art Laffer: ‘Stimulus’ will make things worse – Instead cut the payroll tax for t

Reagan’s economist Art Laffer: ‘Stimulus’ will make things worse – Instead cut the payroll tax for the next 8 months

Angry Republicans are blaming Democrats for holding up a $ 1 trillion stimulus package meant to provide relief to Americans and businesses amid the coronavirus crisis , but the man whose economic theory became a cornerstone of Ronald Reagan ’ s revolution hopes the plan will die .
Art Laffer , in an interview Monday with Fox News , called the bill a “ helicopter money proposal ” of handouts that has a bad track record historically .
“ It never works , it just causes the problem to get worse and worse , ” said Laffer , known for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ don ’ t tax people who work and pay people who don ’ t work and expect more work , ” he said .
Laffer noted he ’ s “ been on all of these crises on the inside , from Nixon in 71-72 … through Jerry Ford , up to the present.
” He proposes , instead , cutting the payroll tax for the next seven to eight months “ to make sure that it ’ s more attractive for people to work and more attractive for companies to hire.
” And @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to businesses to help them stay afloat .
“ Just the payroll tax cut and liquidity lending , ” he said .
“ That ’ s all you need , and stand back : This economy will do really well.
” Laffer believes the rebate checks to individual taxpayers “ will have an impact , but it will be negative , ” curbing the incentive to work and to hire .
“ What we really need now is jobs .
Everyone is suffering terribly from this coronavirus impact , ” he said .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ as fast as it can come back , ” he told Fox News .
“ This is not an economic problem .
It ’ s a coronavirus problem that had a big impact on the economy , and this would bring it back.
” Laffer said the aim is to “ make sure we bring people back to work as quickly as possible , and to do that you make work and hiring as attractive as possible.
” His proposal would have a broad-based impact , he said , because every family has @ @ @ @ @ @ @ politicians make decisions , whether they are panicked or drunk , the consquences are rarely attractive , ” he said .
An adviser for President Trump during the 2016 election , Laffer said Trump “ is the single best president we ’ ve had in my lifetime .
”