climatedepot--2020-07-14--Ocean Temps Dropping June 2020

Ocean Temps Dropping June 2020

The best context for understanding decadal temperature changes comes from the world ’ s sea surface temperatures ( SST ) , for several reasons : • The ocean covers 71 % of the globe and drives average temperatures ; • SSTs have a constant water content , ( unlike air temperatures ) , so give a better reading of heat content variations ; • A major El Nino was the dominant climate feature in recent years .
HadSST is generally regarded as the best of the global SST data sets , and so the temperature story here comes from that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
More on what distinguishes HadSST3 from other SST products at the end .
The cool 2020 Spring was not just your local experience , it ’ s the result of Earth ’ s ocean cooling off after last summer ’ s warming in the Northern Hemisphere .
The chart below shows SST monthly anomalies as reported in HadSST3 starting in 2015 through June 2020 .
A global cooling pattern is seen clearly in the Tropics since its peak in 2016 , joined by NH and SH cycling downward since 2016 .
In @ @ @ @ @ @ @ reach nearly the same value in April .
Then NH rose exceptionally by almost 0.5C over the four summer months , in August exceeding previous summer peaks in NH since 2015 .
In the 4 succeeding months , that warm NH pulse reversed sharply .
Now NH temps are warming to a lower 2020 summer peak , while the SH and Tropics are cooling sharply .
Thus the Global anomaly has steadily decreased since March , presently matching last Autumn Note that higher temps in 2015 and 2016 were first of all due @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , beginning in March 2015 , peaking in January 2016 , and steadily declining back below its beginning level .
Secondly , the Northern Hemisphere added three bumps on the shoulders of Tropical warming , with peaks in August of each year .
A fourth NH bump was lower and peaked in September 2018 .
As noted above , a fifth peak in August 2019 exceeded the four previous upward bumps in NH .
And as before , note that the global release of heat was not dramatic , due to the Southern @ @ @ @ @ @ @ major difference between now and 2015-2016 is the absence of Tropical warming driving the SSTs , along with SH anomalies nearly the lowest in this period .
The graph below is noisy , but the density is needed to see the seasonal patterns in the oceanic fluctuations .
Previous posts focused on the rise and fall of the last El Nino starting in 2015 .
This post adds a longer view , encompassing the significant 1998 El Nino and since .
The color schemes are retained for Global , Tropics , NH and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ frame , I have kept the monthly data ( rather than yearly averages ) because of interesting shifts between January and July .
1995 is a reasonable ( ENSO neutral ) starting point prior to the first El Nino .
The sharp Tropical rise peaking in 1998 is dominant in the record , starting Jan. ’ 97 to pull up SSTs uniformly before returning to the same level Jan. ’ 99 .
For the next 2 years , the Tropics stayed down , and the world ’ s oceans held steady around 0.2C @ @ @ @ @ @ @ comes a steady rise over two years to a lesser peak Jan. 2003 , but again uniformly pulling all oceans up around 0.4C .
Something changes at this point , with more hemispheric divergence than before .
Over the 4 years until Jan 2007 , the Tropics go through ups and downs , NH a series of ups and SH mostly downs .
As a result the Global average fluctuates around that same 0.4C , which also turns out to be the average for the entire record since 1995 .
2007 stands out @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that Jan.08 matches the low in Jan. ’ 99 , but starting from a lower high .
The oceans all decline as well , until temps build peaking in 2010 .
Now again a different pattern appears .
The Tropics cool sharply to Jan 11 , then rise steadily for 4 years to Jan 15 , at which point the most recent major El Nino takes off .
But this time in contrast to ’ 97- ’ 99 , the Northern Hemisphere produces peaks every summer pulling up the Global average .
In @ @ @ @ @ @ @ July starting in 2003 , growing stronger to produce 3 massive highs in 2014 , 15 and 16 .
NH July 2017 was only slightly lower , and a fifth NH peak still lower in Sept. 2018 .
The highest summer NH peak came in 2019 , only this time the Tropics and SH are offsetting rather adding to the warming .
Since 2014 SH has played a moderating role , offsetting the NH warming pulses .
Now in January 2020 last summer ’ s unusually high NH SSTs have been erased .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ on top of the highest absolute temps in the NH . )
What to make of all this ?
The patterns suggest that in addition to El Ninos in the Pacific driving the Tropic SSTs , something else is going on in the NH .
The obvious culprit is the North Atlantic , since I have seen this sort of pulsing before .
After reading some papers by David Dilley , I confirmed his observation of Atlantic pulses into the Arctic every 8 to 10 years .
But the peaks coming nearly every @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Let ’ s look at August , the hottest month in the North Atlantic from the Kaplan dataset .
The AMO Index is from from Kaplan SST v2 , the unaltered and not detrended dataset .
By definition , the data are monthly average SSTs interpolated to a 5×5 grid over the North Atlantic basically 0 to 70N .
The graph shows warming began after 1992 up to 1998 , with a series of matching years since .
Because the N. Atlantic has partnered with the Pacific ENSO recently , let ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ AMO years in the last 2 decades .
This graph shows monthly AMO temps for some important years .
The Peak years were 1998 , 2010 and 2016 , with the latter emphasized as the most recent .
The other years show lesser warming , with 2007 emphasized as the coolest in the last 20 years .
Note the red 2018 line is at the bottom of all these tracks .
The black line shows that 2020 began slightly warm , then set records for 3 months before dropping below 2016 and 2017 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ this century .
SSTs took a step up with the 1998 El Nino and have stayed there with help from the North Atlantic , and more recently the Pacific northern “ Blob.
” The ocean surfaces are releasing a lot of energy , warming the air , but eventually will have a cooling effect .
The decline after 1937 was rapid by comparison , so one wonders : How long can the oceans keep this up ?
If the pattern of recent years continues , NH SST anomalies may rise slightly in coming @ @ @ @ @ @ @ which has weakened will probably determine the outcome .
HadSST3 is distinguished from other SST products because HadCRU ( Hadley Climatic Research Unit ) does not engage in SST interpolation , i.e .
infilling estimated anomalies into grid cells lacking sufficient sampling in a given month .
From reading the documentation and from queries to Met Office , this is their procedure .
HadSST3 imports data from gridcells containing ocean , excluding land cells .
From past records , they have calculated daily and monthly average readings for each grid cell for the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ form the baseline from which anomalies are calculated .
In a given month , each gridcell with sufficient sampling is averaged for the month and then the baseline value for that cell and that month is subtracted , resulting in the monthly anomaly for that cell .
All cells with monthly anomalies are averaged to produce global , hemispheric and tropical anomalies for the month , based on the cells in those locations .
For example , Tropics averages include ocean grid cells lying between latitudes 20N and 20S .
Gridcells lacking sufficient @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the averaging , and the uncertainty from such missing data is estimated .
IMO that is more reasonable than inventing data to infill .
And it seems that the Global Drifter Array displayed in the top image is providing more uniform coverage of the oceans than in the past .


climatedepot--2020-07-14--Proof That NASA/NOAA Erased The Arctic’s 1940’s ‘Warming Blip’

Tony Heller ’ s website realclimatescience.comis a one-stop-shop for exposing government agency data-fudging .
For decades , NASA/NOAA has been cooling the past so as to create a fake warming trend — all in a desperate attempt to sustain their failing AGW theory .
Furthermore , and not to get too personal here , but why are the scientists at the heart of the fraud such slimy , thin-skinned wusses–desperate to evade scrutiny at all costs ?
What do they have to hide ?
Case in point , watch this embarrassing interview with NASA ’ s Gavin Schmidt .
Schmidt @ @ @ @ @ @ @ wasn ’ t a debate.
” And while I urge you watch the entire video , particularly the parts with the excellent Dr. Roy Spencer ( a real climate scientist btw ) , skip to 2:00 and then to 6:30 if you ’ re interested in Schmidt ’ s “ la la la , I ’ m not listening to you ” evading tactics .
So NASA refuses to debate an issue which supposedly negatively impacts every living organism on the planet — and 2013 should be considered the good old days .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ a position where so-called skeptics have no platform at all .
Today , even this kind of non-debate would never be agreed to .
But looking at the ever-mounting case against NASA/NOAA , re their temperature graphs , they probably have good reason to evade scrutiny .
Serving as just one example , government agencies have been erasing the 1940s warmth in the Eastern Arctic for decades , writes Tony Heller .
This is what the raw data for Iceland ’ s capital Reykjavík looks like : And this is what the data @ @ @ @ @ @ @ : Note the tactic — cool the past in order to fabricate a warming trend where there was none before : Removing the warmth of the 1940s ( without any justification ) was discussed by the world ’ s leading climate experts in this Climategate email : Those at the Icelandic Met Office ( IMO ) couldn ’ t understand the adjustments .
Trausti Jónsson , a senior meteorologist at the IMO , wrote in 2012 that his office was never advised as to the reason for them .
Furthermore , Jónsson said @ @ @ @ @ @ @ error in the case of Reykjavík… ” And when asked if the IMO intended to modify its data to match that of NASA ’ s/NOAA ’ s , Jónsson replied : “ no ” .
Years later , Jónsson suspiciously flipped his story , going from “ the corrections are grossly in error ” to “ the adjustments are quite sound ” — and no explanation for this change of heart was given .
And just as suspiciously , after the heat that followed NASA ’ s Icelandic temperature tampering debacle , Schmidt @ @ @ @ @ @ @ stopped adjusting Reykjavík ’ s data , without comment — thus confirming the removal of the 1940 ’ s warmth was without justification .
Temperature adjustments aren ’ t just confined to the Eastern Arctic , of course .

Thank you for being patient. We are doing some work on the site and will be back shortly.


climatedepot--2020-07-14--Study: Much Of The Globe May Experience ‘No Warming’ For 30 Years – ‘We may experience a global cool

Study: Much Of The Globe May Experience ‘No Warming’ For 30 Years – ‘We may experience a global cooling trend during next 15 or even 30 years’

A new study documents the dominance of internal variability in decadal-scale global temperature changes and suggests we may experience a @ @ @ @ @ next 15 or even 30 years despite rising greenhouse gases .
Maher et al .
@ @ @ @ @ internal variability in global surface temperature variations is “ a difficult concept to communicate ” @ @ @ @ @ observations of its impact and so we must rely on assumptions about how the climate @ @ @ @ @ who try to explain how internal variability affects global surface temperature often use the “ @ @ @ @ @ they assume that small changes now can lead to larger changes decades from now .
@ @ @ @ @ “ largely determined by internal variability ” , global cooling or another warming hiatus could @ @ @ @ @ the next decade .
Actually , as Maher and colleagues explain , “ even out @ @ @ @ @ of the globe ( or most of the globe in MPI-GE and CMIP5 ) could @ @ @ @ @ internal variability.
” Read more at No Tricks Zone


climatedepot--2020-07-14--No, ‘Global Warming’ Did Not Create Pink Algae in Snow, Nor Is It Dangerous

Among the climate click-bait topics getting media attention today is a series of stories implying climate change is giving rise to algae on the Presna glacier in Northern Italy , leading to melting of the glacier .
Live Science , CNN , CNBC , and The Guardian , among other media outlets , all published variations of this climate scare in the past few days .
CBS ’ s write up , titled “ Mysterious pink “ watermelon snow ” has been appearing in the Italian Alps — and it may warn of environmental disaster , ” is typical of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that a pink algae has appeared on some areas on the alpine glacier Presna , in Italy .
However , as the scientists interviewed in the press reports point out , repeatedly , the pink algae is not a mystery at all in the sense that it is not unusual but rather a “ well-documented ” seasonal phenomena on Presna .
Similar seasonal algae blooms occur in areas of Greenland , with green algae appearing in a small part of Antarctica , during the spring and summer months as seasonal snow melts and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Biagio Di Mauro , of the Institute of Polar Sciences ( ISP ) at Italy ’ s National Research Council , who traveled to the glacier to study the phenomena said in a press release , “ The alga is not dangerous , it is a natural phenomenon that occurs during the spring and summer periods in the middle latitudes but also at the Poles.
” Still CBS and other news outlets tried to make a climate mountain out of a natural mole hill , warning the algae reduces the reflectivity of the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , resulting in localized warming , causing ever more melting .
Also true but irrelevant since it is part of a natural cycle which happens seasonally every summer .
Indeed , Presna has one of the shortest summer seasons and longest ski seasons in the Alps , being , in the words of one website , “ one of the few glaciers where skiing is possible until late spring.
” There is no evidence this has changed in the last three decades .
None of the media outlets present any data indicating the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a significant warming trend in recent years , a fact which undermines their seemingly breathless admonition , “ it [ the algae ] may actually be a warning sign of environmental trouble.
” CBS ’ s story says the “ snow algae productivity has implications for carbon dioxide in the atmosphere , ” not telling the reader what the implications are but rather , based on the warnings contained throughout the story , leaving them with the impression the implications are dangerous .
In truth , if one is concerned about increasing atmospheric @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s annual appearance should be thought of as good news .
As CBS ignores , but I explained in a May 29 Climate Realism article discussing a faux “ green snow ” scare in Antarctica , the algae bloom removes carbon dioxide from the atmosphere .
Thus while the bloom may contribute to a marginal localized warming in areas on the glacier , because it removes carbon dioxide from the atmosphere , if you believe rising CO2 is causing climate change , then the pink algae is reducing the threat .
In the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ papers and get online clicks by warning “ mysterious ” pink ice is appearing on Presna glacier , the facts are less alarming .
The algae bloom is a natural seasonal phenomena , worth studying , undoubtedly , but not worth worrying about .
The post No , Global Warming Did Not Create Pink Algae in Snow , Nor Is It Dangerousappeared first on Climate Realism .


climatedepot--2020-07-14--Climate Wars: Try Removing the Word ‘Denier’ from a Wikipedia Entry

A few days ago Dr. Willie Soon pointed out on the social media site Parler that it is impossible to remove the term “ Denier ” from the Wikipedia entry for Sallie Baliunas .
“ I should have stated more clearly the big problem in Wiki related to William Connolley ; the tyrant at Wiki None of us can correct for the entries calling us climate change deniers : start with Robert Carter and Sallie Baliunas.Source : Baliunas ’ Wikipedia description contains the line “ Baliunas is a denier in regard to there being a connection between CO rise and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ essay with Willie Soon … ” So I decided to perform an experiment .
As a long standing if infrequent Wikipedia editor , I updated Sallie ’ s Wikipedia entry to read “ Baliunas disputes there being a connection between CO rise and climate change , saying in a 2001 essay with Willie Soon … ” , and added an explanation to Sallie ’ s talk page ( a secondary page associated with all Wikipedia pages , where people can leave comments ) .
Wikipedia editor Hob Galding ( Hob admits this is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the next day , and offered the following explanation .
I responded with some examples demonstrating attempts to link disagreeing with the alleged climate consensus to holocaust denial .
I obtained these quotes from a longer list published on WUWT in 2014 .
Someone spoke up in support of my point ; On 20 January 2020 Wiki5537821 changed “ skeptic ” to “ denier ” without explanation in the edit summary .
It would be nice to see one .
The reference later in the paragraph to a 2002 article , which should @ @ @ @ @ @ @ current dead link , says things like “ that exceedingly small positive trend is probably not the result of human activities ” , i.e .
Ms Baliunas believed there is warming and “ probably ” is a skeptical remark not a denial .
Hob Gadling has re-inserted “ denier ” without seeking consensus first , and so far doesn ’ t have it — although I ’ m not interested in the WP : LABEL aspect that Eric Worrall seems to be alluding to , I agree that the earlier wording was better @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , 12 July 2020 ( UTC ) I don ’ t think “ capitalismmagazine ” is a reliable source for scientific subjects .
—Hob Gadling ( talk ) 15:30 , 12 July 2020 ( UTC ) Boo hoo , poor anti-science loons , being compared with anti-history loons.See here : the section “ no neutral POV ” is pretty much the same as sections in Talk pages about climate change deniers .
Like identical twins !
As I said , we say what reliable sources say , and they call it “ denial @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and climate change denial is a big part of it .
Don ’ t blame Wikipedia for common usage .
Wikipedia does not pander to fringe groups : we do not call evolution “ just a theory ” because creationists are offended if we don ’ t , and we do not claim acupuncture is science because quacks are offended if we don ’ t .
Read WP : LUNATIC.Climate change denial is not just “ unfashionable ” .
That is not how science works .
It is indefensible .
If you want @ @ @ @ @ @ @ behave like real scientists .
Do not just steal e-mails , cherry-pick quotes , cherry-pick data , cherry-pick studies , cherry-pick scientists , accuse innocent scientists of fraud , harrass them with legal shenanigans , bribe politicians , and so on .
All the despicable methods deniers use have earned them the word “ denier ” .
Instead , do real research , without any dirty tricks , and publish it in bona-fide scientific journals .
( Of course , this will not work , since you are wrong and the data are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the honest way to do it , the way that does not get you called “ denier ” . )
—Hob Gadling ( talk ) 15:30 , 12 July 2020 ( UTC ) Maybe this story will have a happy ending .
The Wikipedia community might ultimately decide that “ denier ” ( aka “ holocaust denier ” ) is too loaded a term to use to describe a scientist who disagrees with their colleagues .
But as Hob explained , Wikipedia community guidelines have a backdoor clause which provides cover for those @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in repeating academic insults .
Under the rules , “ Hob ” , hiding behind the anonymity of a pseudonym , is allowed to use nasty pejorative terms in Wikipedia , providing a “ reliable source ” ( as defined by the Wikipedia community ) has already used such terms in public to attack the target of their slur ; BLPs [ biographies of Living Persons ] should be written responsibly , cautiously , and in a dispassionate tone , avoiding both understatement and overstatement .
Articles should document in a non-partisan manner @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the subjects , and in some circumstances what the subjects have published about themselves .
Summarize how actions and achievements are characterized by reliable sources without giving undue weight to recent events .
Do not label people with contentious labels , loaded language , or terms that lack precision , unless a person is commonly described that way in reliable sources.Instead use clear , direct language and let facts alone do the talking .
BLPs should not have trivia sections.Read more : https : //en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia : Biographies_of_living_persons Wikimedia Foundation ( Wikipedia ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ world in which every single human being can freely share in the sum of all knowledge.
” .
However as Wikipedia co-founder Larry Sanger points out , one of the core policies designed to support this ideal , the policy of Neutral Point of View , died out a long time ago , and was replaced by “ the utterly bankrupt canard ” of avoiding “ false balance ” ( h/t Charles ) .
Wikipedia ’ s “ NPOV ” is dead.1 The original policy long since forgotten , Wikipedia no longer has @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a rewritten policy , but it endorses the utterly bankrupt canard that journalists should avoid what they call “ false balance.
” 2 The notion that we should avoid “ false balance ” is directly contradictory to the original neutrality policy .
As a result , even as journalists turn to opinion and activism , Wikipedia now touts controversial points of view on politics , religion , and science .
Here are some examples from each of these subjects , which were easy to find , no hunting around .
Many , many @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s apparent betrayal of their founding ideal will likely be their downfall .
As editors become bolder in venting their personal prejudices , under the guise of avoiding “ false balance ” , a growing number of Wikipedia ’ s target audience will become alienated by Wikipedia community ’ s intolerance .
“ Imagine a world in which every single human being can freely share in the sum of all knowledge.
” – without the bullying and hate speech .
This article appeared on the Watts Up With That ?
website at https @ @


climatedepot--2020-07-16--Burger King hypes ‘climate’ friendly burgers to appease climate activists — Morano responds

Morano : `` I tip my hat to the college professors , to the woke media , to the social justice movements .
They own corporate America , and this is just a silly capitulation to really bad climate science claims . ''
`` And also , when [ people ] think of eating food , they want to eat something that tastes the best – not something that is virtue signaling out to the public . ''
`` They are trying to appeal to the climate activists , to the youth activists , to gen up more business , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ do n't think their marketing is going to work because when people think of cows , they do n't want to think of cows emitting gases – because that 's going to be a turnoff first of all for eating a Whopper .
`` I tip my hat to the college professors , to the woke media , to the social justice movements , '' @ ClimateDepot told me .
`` They own corporate America , and this is just a silly capitulation to really bad climate science claims . ''
https : @ @ @ @ @ @ @ their input about their output ?
Burger King aims to combat what it calls “ man-made climate change ” by altering the diet of cows it buys for beef .
Burger King says it has rebalanced the diet of some of the cows by adding lemongrass .
In doing so , Burger King believes it can reduce a cow ’ s daily methane emissions by about 33 % .
Methane emissions are considered by some individuals , think tanks , and special interest groups to be a big contributor to man-made climate change @ @ @ @ @ @ @ catastrophic man-made climate change , says this is silly .
“ They are trying to appeal to the climate activists , to the youth activists , to gen up more business , ” Morano tells OneNewsNow .
“ I don ’ t think their marketing is going to work because when people think of cows , they don ’ t want to think of cows emitting gases – because that ’ s going to be a turnoff first of all for eating a Whopper .
“ And also , when [ people ] @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to eat something that tastes the best – not something that is virtue signaling out to the public.
” Morano , who is a spokesman for Climate Depot , also dismisses concern over methane .
“ It ’ s been called the irrelevant greenhouse gas , ” he explains .
“ It just can ’ t have the impact that they claim , and even the United Nations has had contradictory studies on so-called cow emissions , but the larger story here is this is just more appeasement by corporate America.
” Prior @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Burger King began offering plant-based products in its menu .
Two years ago , McDonald ’ s said it was taking steps to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions .


climatedepot--2020-07-16--Morano: Bernie Sanders, AOC ghostwriters of Biden’s energy plan

`` It 's not like [ Democrats are saying ] 'Bernie Sanders did n't win , so we 're going to get a more rational climate policy . '
No – Biden has essentially ceded his control over this policy to that extremist climate emergency wing of the Democrats . ''
`` In order to get this nomination without a fight , [ Biden ] had to cede climate and energy over to the Bernie Sanders/AOC wing – and people like AOC are actually writing all of this .
Biden is merely a figurehead when it comes to this , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ has released a $ 2 trillion energy plan – but one critic says Biden is just a figurehead who has relinquished control of that policy area to some left-leaning members of the Democratic Party .
According to The Associated Press , the former VP ’ s plan reflects ideas embraced by some of his far-left allies during the primary – notably Washington Governor Jay Inslee .
Biden ’ s proposal doesn ’ t include specifics on how it would pay for the four-year plan , but some of his campaign officials said it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and deficit spending .
Marc Morano of Climate Depot claims Biden “ is not in charge ” of the plan , but that the real people behind it are far-left politicians such as Senator Bernie Sanders ( I-Vermont ) and Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez ( D-New York ) .
“ In order to get this nomination without a fight , [ Biden ] had to cede climate and energy over to the Bernie Sanders/AOC wing – and people like AOC are actually writing all of this .
Biden is merely a figurehead when it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ OneNewsNow .
“ It ’ s not like [ Democrats are saying ] ‘ Bernie Sanders didn ’ t win , so we ’ re going to get a more rational climate policy.
’ No – Biden has essentially ceded his control over this policy to that extremist climate emergency wing of the Democrats.
” Speaking yesterday in Delaware , Biden said his plan is necessary to combat man-made climate change , something he and others maintain is the result of international use of fossil fuels to run economies : Biden : “ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that we must meet in the next decade than the onrushing climate crisis .
Left unchecked , it is literally an existential threat to the health of our planet and our very survival.
” However , some people doubt the existence of man-made climate change .
Others do not rule it out , but add that things have not turned out as bad as so-called “ alarmists ” warned in various models or studies .
Meanwhile , the White House says the following on its website : “ Americans have long been told @ @ @ @ @ @ @ energy , but we now know that is wrong .
America ’ s energy revolution has produced affordable , reliable energy for consumers along with stable , high-paying jobs for small businesses – all while dropping carbon emissions to their lowest level in 25 years .
American energy policy must balance environmental protection with economic growth in order to encourage innovation , discovery , and prosperity.
” In his speech on Tuesday , Biden also stated : “ Science tells us we have nine years before the damage [ from climate change ] @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and historian Dr. Ryan Maue tweeted : “ The ‘ years left ’ narrative is a complete fraud.
” AOC herself last year declared a 12-year “ tipping point ” to fight alleged global warming .


climatedepot--2020-07-15--UN touts ‘a green recovery’ from COVID lockdowns – Un urges: ‘Avoid returning to a pre-pandemic path

UN touts ‘a green recovery’ from COVID lockdowns – Un urges: ‘Avoid returning to a pre-pandemic pathway, where progress towards important objectives was not rapid enough’

`` UN DESA will organize a series of policy dialogues among board members , contributing authors and prominent thinkers that will further inform COVID-19 responses so that countries can build back better and avoid returning to a pre-pandemic pathway , where progress towards important objectives was not rapid enough , or was happening at the cost of significant reversals on others . ''
Please join UN DESA and the United Nations High-level Advisory Board on Economic and Social Affairs ( HLAB ) on 22 July 2020 for the launch of the Board ’ s new volume , “ Recover Better @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ” This online dialogue aims to answer these questions : • None Are we in a recession ?
• None What should countries do to recover better ?
The essay compilation “ Recover Better ” reflects and furthers the discussions HLAB members have had on a wide range of development trends and issues of critical importance to the achievement of the SDGs and the recovery from COVID-19 .
The insights compiled in the edited volume could help to accelerate action , which is particularly important given that the window of opportunity for attaining @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a follow-up , UN DESA will organize a series of policy dialogues among board members , contributing authors and prominent thinkers that will further inform COVID-19 responses so that countries can build back better and avoid returning to a pre-pandemic pathway , where progress towards important objectives was not rapid enough , or was happening at the cost of significant reversals on others .
Taken together , these policy dialogues will enhance the understanding of key underlying trends that must be managed as we design and implement policies for the pandemic response and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Please register for the 22 July event here , by 20 July : bit.ly/hlab22july About the High-level Advisory Board on Economic and Social Affairs The United Nations High-level Advisory Board ( HLAB ) on Economic and Social Affairs was established in June 2018 to help strengthen the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs ( UN DESA ) in the context of United Nations development system reform , and as a key part of efforts to enhance support to Member States of the United Nations in implementing the 2030 Agenda for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 16 globally renowned experts in the economic and social policy fields , including former Heads of State , a Nobel Laureate , former Senior Government Officials and intellectual leaders .
It has provided guidance to the research and policy analysis work of UN DESA , including topics for its flagship publications .
The Board members themselves have played an active role in strengthening the linkage between UN DESA and the global economic and social policy research community , and have promoted UN DESA publications and reports at national and global levels .
The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , has provided advice to the United Nations on broad economic and social issues , including near-term prospects and risks for the world economy , frontier technologies , inequality , migration , issues associated with countries in special situations , as well as the implications of these issues for multilateralism and the implementation of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development .
Over the course of the last two years , the HLAB has deliberated on many contemporary and cross-cutting issues and challenges .
The interventions and insights of the Board have greatly expanded @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and social significance and inspired the United Nations to break new ground in policy research .
The volume “ Recovering Better ” is envisaged as the legacy of the first HLAB to advancing the sustainable development agenda .
• UN High-Level Advisory Board on Economic and Social Affairs meets to deepen discussions on global development challenges • UN High-level Advisory Board calls for new multilateralism for sustainable development • First Meeting of HLAB on 9-10 July 2018 in New York renews hope for globalization The following people have been appointed for a two-year @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on Economic and Social Affairs : • Cristina Duarte , former Minister of Finance , Planning and Public Administration ( 2006-2016 ) , Cabo Verde • Anastasia J. Gage , Professor at the Department of Global Community Health and Behavioral Sciences , School of Public Health and Tropical Medicine , Tulane University • Jayati Ghosh , Professor of Economics at the Centre for Economic Studies and Planning , School of Social Sciences , Jawaharlal Nehru University • Ricardo Lagos , Honorary Chairman of the Inter-American Dialogue ; former President of Chile ( 2000-2006 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , Institute of New Structural Economics , Professor and Honorary Dean of National School of Development , Peking University • José Antonio Ocampo , Member of the Board of Banco de la República ( central bank ) , Colombia , and Professor , Columbia University • Kori Udovički , Head of the Center for Advanced Economic Studies ( CEVES ) • Ernesto Zedillo , Director of the Yale Center for the Study of Globalization ; former President of Mexico ( 1994-2000 ) • Elliott Harris , UN Assistant-Secretary-General for Economic Development and UN @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Click here for short bios of the Board Members .
Click here for a group photo of the Board Members .


climatedepot--2020-07-15--The Shellenberger chronicles part one : A rude awakening

As one who has been directly involved in the publishing of 31 science books as an author , co-author or editor , I am intimidated by having reviewed his1220 endnotes , appearing on 111 pages , supporting everything he has written .
I must conclude that he is among the best researchers and writers I have encountered , and clearly one of the smartest .
So one must ask why it took him a quarter century to learn and understand the truth .
This first of 3 articles on Mr. Shellenberger and his book is not intended as a book @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , all positive except for some disgruntled leftists .
I will tell you straight out , unless you are confident that you have all the facts on the false assertions claiming man plays a significant roll in controlling the Earth ’ s thermostat , I strongly recommend that you buy the book at Amazon now .
My intent is to interpret the book for you in the same easy fashion in which it is written and entice you to share its contents with others in an effort to make the authors confidence in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ will begin with an honest wish that the author had not been on the wrong side of science for so very long , sewing the very seeds that could yet destroy us if wrong headed people seize the leadership of the United States on Nov 3 of this year .
Mr. Shellenberger was a political and environmental activist for the better part of his 30 year career , not understanding the damage he was doing .
A few years back he evidently had an epiphany allowing real science to intrude on his many @ @ @ @ @ @ @ many religious converts , they become the most passionate .
The author fits that bill and may well turnout to be the very best weapon real scientists have to fight the battle many of us have waged for much of our professional lives .
In the first third of the book Mr. Shellenberger piles up the horrendous scaremongering in recent years , practiced by the New York Times , The Washington Post and the International Panel on Climate Change ( IPCC ) , and even a NASA scientist who predicted the collapse of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ was in total disregard of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations saying that increasing carbon dioxide was resulting in significantly increasing crop yields .
It is probable that the radical New York Congresswomen who presented the Green New Deal played a major roll in opening the authors eyes , or Britains Extinction Rebellion whose dystopian view of the future was difficult to stomach .
It was actually way more than that , he had traveled the world as early as 2014 with his wife to see first hand what he @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the Non Government Organizations ( NGOs ) .
While certainly not all NGOs had politically motivated goals to grow government and socialism , a great number do .
He says “ anyone interested in seeing the end of the world up close and in person could do little worse than to visit the Democratic Republic of the Congo in central Africa .
The Congo has a way of putting first-world prophesies of climate apocalypse unto perspective.
” He learned there that most everything the NGOs were doing to save Gorillas and provide fuel @ @ @ @ @ @ @ flat out stupid .
When Shellenberger was only 16 he raised money for the Rainforest Action Network to save the Amazon , but in recent years he learned that almost everything he thought he knew of the Amazon rainforest was wrong .
They are not the lungs of the Earth .
Their contribution to the planets oxygen supply is a net zero .
Actual deforestation is minimal and allowing the inhabitants to turn some forest land into farms to yield their food supply is not a bad idea .
He exposed the near @ @ @ @ @ @ @ they flew over the Amazon with Tom Brady ’ s wife , Brazilian model Gisele Bundechen , with the head of Greenpeace Brazil in 2016 exposing her only to the sites that would yield a false picture of devastation .
The authors new knowledge of the real and imagined problems in Brazil are frankly worth the price of the book .
Shellenberger tells us accurately that new tree growth exceeds tree loss during the past 35 years by an area that would equal that of Texas and Alaska combined .
Yes you read @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of this book the author and his wife vacationed in New Zealand where they learned more misinformation as to penguins being threatened by climate change .
They realized the problems were being focused in the wrong direction when over-fishing was more important to understand .
However he never puts climate change due to carbon dioxide emissions completely aside feeling it still exists but of little consequence .
A favorite chapter of mine is titled Enough With The Plastic Straws .
In 2016 a young marine biologist Christine Figgener videoed a colleague extracting a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ sea turtle .
The video eventually had 60 million views and the rest is history .
Shellenberger interviewed Ms. Figgener in 2019 and learned a great deal about plastic waste which he described well in his book .
It turns out that much plastic degrades faster than most scientists believed and that plastic straws make up only .03 per cent of the nine millions tons of plastic that ends up in the oceans each year .
One of the most insightful elements in the book is a telephone interview which Shellenberger made with @ @ @ @ @ @ @ with Environmental Defense .
Oppenheimer ranks among the most strident wrongheaded fear mongers in the nation and with Princeton University behind him totally he wreaks great damage on our nations understanding of real science .
Oppenheimer who is convinced that sea level is now rising way more than the 7 inches per century over the past millennium is unmanageable .
When Shellenberger was asked why if the Netherlands managed to withstand the sea encroaching on its land why could not Bangladesh and other low lying countries be able to manage as well .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ volumes about the alarmists we are up against .
I can not say enough about the value of this book .
In part two of the Shellenberger Chronicles I will unveil what he has learned about how the planet ’ s environment can be protected intelligently .


climatedepot--2020-07-15--Cancel Culture Dominates Climate Research, Cancelling the Scientific Method

For more than two decades , politically connected climate scientists have been leading the cancel culture movement .
Contrary to popular perception , “ cancel culture , ” in which people or their opinions are shamed and shut out of discussion when they don ’ t conform to whatever those shouting the loudest or rioting in the streets believe , is not a new phenomenon .
For more than two decades , politically connected climate scientists have been leading the cancel culture movement .
These researchers abandoned the pursuit of knowledge and human progress for the pursuit of political power @ @ @ @ @ @ @ should be shaped .
Rather than seeking understanding of the world through the use of the scientific method and its reliance upon data and empirical falsification , they ’ ve promoted the political notion of consensus as how knowledge is obtained , and comity , rather than experimentation , as how progress is made .
They “ cancel ” through personal attacks , denial of funding , removing “ opponents ” from positions , and suppressing the research of any researcher or analyst who dares to disagree with the so-called consensus position humans @ @ @ @ @ @ @ scientists who cling to the quaint notion that climate change theory should be tested against data are deemed retrograde or climate deniers , whose views are not worthy of being considered in these days of post-modern climate science .
Indeed , many cancelers advocate for imprisoning climate skeptics .
Let ’ s look at just a couple of examples of where academic conferences and media headlines have given consensus , cancel culture science pride of place over the facts when it comes to alarming climate claims .
Based solely on the unsupported assertions @ @ @ @ @ @ @ has been flooded with stories claiming human caused climate change is causing famine and starvation .
In late June 2020 , Cornell Alliance for Science claimed farmers in sub-Saharan Africa were desperate for new farm technologies and crops to fight a climate change induced decline in crop production that the Alliance claimed was “ driving millions [ of Africans ] into hunger.
” Yet data from the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization shows cereal ( staple ) food crop production across southern Africa has grown substantially , and fairly steadily , since at @ @ @ @ @ @ @ past 10 years have provided the 10 highest crop yields in sub-Saharan African history .
Dozens of similarly false claims linking supposed anthropogenic climate change to an agricultural apocalypse were covered by outlets such as Google News , GQ , the New Republic , and Roll Call , over the past couple of months .
Yet , had the journalists writing the stories showed a little bit of investigative initiative they could have easily discovered hundreds of field experiments and studies collected on CO2 Science , much of which was distilled or summarized @ @ @ @ @ @ @ International Panel on Climate Change , Climate Change Reconsidered II : Biological Impacts .
These reports show crop yields have been booming and hunger and malnutrition declining as , and in large part because , carbon dioxide concentrations have been rising .
Following the Democratic playbook per Rahm Emmanuel of “ never letting a crisis go to waste , ” radical climate alarmists have also manipulated science to assert climate change is making pandemics more frequent and deadlier .
Dozens of media outlets , including Jurist Legal , the Los Angeles Times , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ during the midst of the coronavirus pandemic claiming human caused climate change , if not already making the incidences of pandemics more likely , would make them more frequent and more deadly in the future .
For instance , an article in Pro-Publica blatantly lied when it stated , “ vector-borne diseases—those carried by insects like mosquitoes and ticks and transferred in the blood of infected people—are also on the rise as warming weather and erratic precipitation vastly expand the geographic regions vulnerable to contagion.
” The body of scientific literature , as @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Reconsidered II : Fossil Fuels , shows there is no factual basis for this claim .
Studies from Africa , to England and Wales , to North and South America , to Thailand and beyond find any link between human climate change and the spread of malaria , Dengue fever , West Nile virus , and other vector-borne diseases , either grossly overstated or outright false .
Indeed , historically , colder periods are linked to famine , as crops fail , and the rapid spread of pandemics , like the bubonic plague @ @ @ @ @ @ @ age .
By contrast , pandemics typically wane , though not disappear , and hunger and malnutrition decline sharply during relatively warm periods .
The post Cancel Culture Dominates Climate Research , Cancelling the Scientific Methodappeared first on The Global Warming Policy Forum ( GWPF ) .


climatedepot--2020-07-15--Here we go again: Climate Predictions: ‘It’s Worse Than We Thought’

As the temperature of the eastern U.S. normally reaches its summer maximum around the last week of July , every year at this time we are bombarded with tired “ climate change is worse than we thought ” ( WTWT ) stories .
These stories take time to produce , from imagination to final copy to editing to publication , so they have usually been submitted well in advance of the summer peak .
Hence , orchestrated fear .
For once , I ’ m in agreement about the WTWT meme , but it ’ s about the climate models @ @ @ @ @ @ @ seven years or so , our friends at the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change ( IPCC ) produce a new “ scientific assessment ” of climate , including forecasts to the year 2100 ( and , in some cases , even beyond ) .
These reports have only one basis : quantitative calculations known as “ general circulation models , ” or increasingly comprehensive “ earth system models.
” Each report is based on a suite of standardized models that are collated into a “ Coupled Model Intercomparison Project ” ( @ @ @ @ @ @ @ CMIP5 , was the forecasting basis for the last ( 2013 ) IPCC report .
Anyone can access the CMIP models at a Netherlands website known as KNMI Climate Explorer .
A few years ago , John Christy , now interim dean of science at the University of Alabama in Huntsville , did just that and plotted the output of all 32 families of models over the vast tropics .
He looked at the whole lower atmosphere there , from the surface up to the stratosphere , and found that the models were @ @ @ @ @ @ @ than had been observed at altitude—a critical systematic error that misdirects the prime moving force for the earth ’ s global climate circulation , driving everything from agriculturally critical midlatitude precipitation to the likelihood of hurricane formation .
One model got it right : the Russian INM-CM4 ( Institute for Numerical Mathematics–Climate Model Four ) , but it also predicted the least warming—by far—of all the CMIP5 models .
At the surface , the 2013 IPCC report predicted a climate “ sensitivity ” ( the amount of warming resulting from the doubling of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ based on the spread of the CMIP5 models .
The sensitivity of the cold Russian model was 2.1⁰C .
You ’ d think that , in the seven-year period between CMIP5 and CMIP6 , the modeling community would address the critical errors that all the other models were making .
But CMIP6 models are out and are indeed “ worse than we thought.
” While their error in the tropical atmosphere is very close to the same as it was in CMIP5 ( which isn ’ t good ) , the range of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
This is also not a good sign , especially because it has been documented that the models are “ tuned ” to give an answer that the modeling team wants .
The post Climate Predictions : “ It ’ s Worse Than We Thought ” appeared first on The Global Warming Policy Forum ( GWPF ) .


climatedepot--2020-07-15--Claim: ‘Trump is the most pro-science president for decades and the Democrats are the most anti-scie

Claim: ‘Trump is the most pro-science president for decades and the Democrats are the most anti-science party’

President Trump is the most pro-science president for decades and the Democrats are the most anti-science party for a very @ @ @ @ @ America great , we need smart people .
One big reason to reelect President Trump @ @ @ @ @ America ’ s science and sanity .
Let ’ s make the climate argument as @ @ @ @ @ analogy .
A person ’ s death can have many effects – on family , @ @ @ @ @ on politics .
But no rational person would conclude the effects of a person ’ @ @ @ @ @ of the person ’ s death .
Yet , that is how most humans think @ @ @ @ @ more here on edberry.com


climatedepot--2020-07-15--Climate modelers can be wrong for the next thirty years and still be right

Natural Variability is the get-out-of-jail card for climate modelers that lasts 30 years What does a climate scientist say when they can ’ t predict the climate on a local , regional , or continental scale , in the near future or the historic past , and they can ’ t do rain , clouds , humidity or drought either ?
They say the models are better than ever , and any discrepancy is just natural variability .
Climate modelers are prepared now for 30 more years of failure : ‘ Most Of The Globe ’ Could Experience ‘ No @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Temperature-Driving Internal Variability A new study documents the dominance of internal variability in decadal-scale global temperature changes and suggests we may experience a global cooling trend during the next 15 or even 30 years despite rising greenhouse gases .
Maher et al .
( 2020 ) acknowledge that internal variability in global surface temperature variations is “ a difficult concept to communicate ” because we have very few observations of its impact and so we must rely on assumptions about how the climate system might work .
We confirm that in the short-term @ @ @ @ @ @ @ by internal variability , with [ … ]


climatedepot--2020-07-15--Radio Host Interviews Skeptic Dr. Caleb Rossiter, Climate Statistician & CO2 Coalition Executive Dir

Radio Host Interviews Skeptic Dr. Caleb Rossiter, Climate Statistician & CO2 Coalition Executive Dir.

On July 14 , radio host Trevor Carey interviewed Dr. Caleb Rossiter , executive director of the CO2 Coalition .
@ @ @ @ @ : https : //www.spreaker.com/episode/39768652


climatedepot--2020-07-15--Greta Thunberg’s Nemesis – Naomi – Wants To Fight Activist’s Alarmism With Debate

Greta Thunberg ’ s arch-rival Naomi Seibt has brutally challenged the teen activist to “ debate me ” after mocking her stance on climate change and urging her to stop “ spreading panic , but offer hope.
” Ms. Seibt , known throughout the world as the anti-Greta Thunberg of climate change , made the demand after she was snubbed by the EU despite Ms. Thunberg being allowed to push her point across to MEPs about the myths of global warming .
The 19-year-old German has pleaded with institutions to listen to the other side of the debate , which @ @ @ @ @ @ @ carbon emissions is addressed throughout the media .
Ms. Seibt , who has previously claimed rival Ms. Thunberg has spread “ panic around climate change when she should be offering hope , ” agrees carbon dioxide – a by-product from the use of fossil fuels – does affect climate change .
However , she argues that the real damage it causes is considerably lower than the likes of Ms. Thunberg allege .
And after seeing Ms. Thunberg invited to talk to EU leaders earlier this year – despite coronavirus lockdown conditions being imposed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ discuss the bill and other arrangements that could be made .
When asked by Express.co.uk whether she expected to ever be asked to speak to the EU , she said : “ I don ’ t think so because they are so immersed in their beliefs that they don ’ t want anyone from the outside to come in and talk to them .
“ Even if I tried to reach out to them I don ’ t think they would allow me to speak and that ’ s why I accept every @ @ @ @ @ @ @ because I would love to talk to someone on the other side .
“ And if anybody is willing to debate me , even if Greta is willing to debate me , I ’ m willing to come any time and debate them on the issue.
” Her exclusive comments came amid the announcement that Brussels intended to create new legislation in order to eliminate carbon emissions to become the world ’ s first “ carbon neutral continent.
” The Green Deal – the name of the EU ’ s proposal – was @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and is the basis of a new growth strategy for those in the bloc .
The law was unveiled by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and makes it essential that the EU balances emissions and the removal of greenhouse gases .
At the time , Ms. Thunberg also took aim at the plan , saying by having such a long term goal , the EU had “ surrendered ” to climate change .


climatedepot--2020-07-17--Watch: Communications expert interviews Morano about climate debate & being number ONE ranked ‘clima

Watch: Communications expert interviews Morano about climate debate & being number ONE ranked ‘climate contrarian’ in the media

It ’ s 13 years since I first interviewed Marc Morano for my movie , “ Sizzle : A Global Warming Comedy.
” Last year Nature quantified his media impact and found him to be # 1 ( by a factor of almost 3 ) for the climate “ contrarians ” ( the descriptor they chose , rather than “ deniers ” ) and almost as widely covered as the # 1 climate scientist .
I ’ ve spent a decade warning about the media power of this guy .
Did anyone listen ?
Perhaps a little .
The good @ @ @ @ @ @ @ down in his speaking speed , from auctioneer to used car salesman .
SOME THINGS NEVER CHANGE , MUCH What ’ s different about Marc Morano ?
In 2007 when I first interviewed him for my movie , “ Sizzle : A Global Warming Comedy , ” he only had a handful of appearances in major media under his belt .
Now ?
When I asked him how many times he ’ s been on Fox News ( in the video above ) , I expected him to say a couple dozen .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ He ’ s truly “ a regular ” there .
Who , among the climate movement , can be called “ a regular ” on any television network ?
Being “ a regular ” on a TV channel is media power , pure and simple .
In 2010 I launched my blog of 4 years , The Benshi , with a lengthy interview of Marc .
Two weeks later I offered up my bottom line analysis — that no one should debate him , other than a major comedian like Bill Maher .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ this warning .
He was on the board of the Union of Concerned Scientists at the time .
My friends there tried to talk to him about this but they told me , “ He ’ s just gon na do what he ’ s gon na do when it comes to media exposure — he can ’ t get enough.
” In 2012 he debated Morano on CNN with Piers Morgan as host .
It wasn ’ t good .
INTERVIEWING MARC MORANO FOR OUR ABT FRAMEWORK COURSE We ’ re in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Framework Course that my team of 6 associates from our Story Circles Narrative Training program and I put together in April .
It ’ s been popular , running twice with open participation , once with USFWS , once with Park Howell and the business community , and now with the National Park Service , as well as booked into the fall .
The course is 10 one hour sessions .
I bring in a series of “ likely suspects ” as guests in the second half ( scientists , filmmakers , actors @ @ @ @ @ @ @ journalists , etc. )
.
But this time decided to spice things up a bit by bringing in an inconvenient guest .
The powers that be got a little nervous at the possibility of a scene .
The sessions include a chat log where the participants can type in comments and questions live .
We all know the climate issue can get heated , so I opted to avoid potential drama by doing only a recorded interview which was 30 minutes .
I cut down the interview to the 13.5 minute clip above @ @ @ @ @ @ @ discussed in depth .
When I made my movie , “ Sizzle : A Global Warming Comedy , ” I ended up trading emails with legendary techno-thriller author-turned-climate “ skeptic ” ( the term of choice at the time ) , Michael Crichton .
He warned me in his first email that what I had experienced for criticism and trolling for my movie “ Flock of Dodos , ” about the attacks on evolution science , would pale in comparison to doing a film on climate .
He was pretty much right .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ things to me because I gave “ screen time ” to climate skeptics ( though by 6 years later when Robbie Kenner did the same thing with “ Merchants of Doubt ” where I guided him to Morano , the critics had gone silent — btw , wan na see one interesting detail — look at the Wikipedia page for this film — the two photos are of Oreskes and Singer with Morano getting only a trivial mention as one of the cast — then look at the trailer for the movie — @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , and ends with one guy — Marc Morano — what does that tell you ? )
.
Some of my critics suggested I was somehow giving climate skeptics a big break .
I wasn ’ t — my film never went much beyond the science world , and having accomplished all the goals I had ( made back the money I spent on it , did over 100 public screenings at everywhere from NASA to the Smithsonian , had huge fun , and verified how utterly , utterly , utterly humorless so @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of times my crew in Hollywood sat in our office shaking our heads at angry emails was tragic ) I opted to never release it .
But yes , climate is an ugly , intensely polarized issue , that is not helped by the poor communication style of so much of the climate action crowd ( exemplified in recent years by their decision to label their opponents as “ deniers ” in an effort to associate them with Holocaust deniers ) .
Over the years , they have chosen to spew hatred from @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in any sort of sophisticated analysis or experimentation when it comes to communication .
And they wonder why they fail .
MAYBE HE ’ S AT LEAST SLOWING DOWN If you watch the video , you ’ ll see by the end I fall into pretty much of a “ here we go again , ” routine with him on each issue .
I ’ ve heard it all before .
His science on the ocean acidification issue is wrong ( there are not as many winners as losers for this issue ) @ @ @ @ @ @ @ fires is wrong ( there ’ s not much of a climate signal for the fires , but the experts agree there ’ s at least some ) .
His science on coral bleaching is WAY wrong — trust me on this , I used to be a coral reef scientist , he has zero legs to stand on for this one .
The bottom line is that there is no point in engaging a climate skeptic on CONTENT .
The engagement needs to be about FORM .
If this isn ’ t @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Framework course .
The climate crowd never did show one ounce of communications savvy .
If there ’ s one core principle to the legendary text , “ The Art of War ” which has been the bible for Hollywood players for a generation , it ’ s “ Know your enemy.
” I ’ ve seen no evidence of climate activists attempting to know their enemy .
Marc and I have chuckled for years at the complete absence of his opponents knowing much of anything about him .
That ’ s part @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to him was how much does he make .
From the very start of my first getting to know him I ’ ve listened to environmentalists tell me with complete certainty that if you “ follow the money , ” you ’ ll see he ’ s making millions off of payments from the oil industry .
Anyhow , here ’ s your one silver lining .
I timed his WORDS PER MINUTE rate of speaking for my interview with him from 2007 .
It was 225 WPM .
I did the same @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of this interview , 13 years later .
I was a mere 210 WPM ( normal conversation is about 150 max ) .
Maybe he ’ s slowing with age .
Which might mean that some day , the age old “ strategy ” of climate activists of “ Ignore him and he ’ ll eventually go away , ” might finally happen .
Maybe sometime around 2050 .
Study in Journal Nature tries to ‘ blacklist ’ skeptics – Ranks Climate Depot ’ s Morano as NUMBER ONE ‘ climate contrarian ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ out of 386 skeptics ) One of the mainstays of climate fear is that rising carbon dioxide concentrations will cause the oceans to acidify .
But the data refutes these claims .
As Christopher Monckton , a former advisor to British prime minister Margaret Thatcher , explained , “ They have lost that argument so now they ’ re saying but no never mind but even if global warming doesn ’ t happen we still mustn ’ t put CO2 into the atmosphere because it will melt the oceans by making them acid @ @ @ @ @ @ @ this in science at all.
” Geologist Robert Giegengack also rejected ocean acidification claims .
“ We have had periods in earth ’ s history when the CO2 concentration in the atmosphere was 15 times higher than it is now and the organisms survived .
They are still here , ” Giegengack said .
“ The level of acidity that people are talking about prevailing in the surface ocean as a consequence of 400 ppm of CO2 in the atmosphere is trivial compared to what it has been in the past when that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ” Australia ’ s Great Barrier Reef—supposedly threatened by ocean acidification—has been a kind of poster child for the global warming cause .
But a 2011 study found that the reef ’ s overall health was not impacted by climate change .
The researchers from the Australian Institute of Marine Science found that the “ overall regional coral cover was stable ( averaging 29 % and ranging from 23 % to 33 % across years ) with no net decline between 1995 and 2009.
” They found “ no evidence of consistent , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ” 115 In 2016 , the chairman of the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority in Australia publicly called out climate activists for exaggerating surveys , maps , and data to hype coral-bleaching on the reef .
In 2015 Greenpeace co-founder Patrick Moore did an analysis on ocean acidification and concluded , “ There is no solid evidence that ocean acidification is the dire threat to marine species that many researchers have claimed .
The entire premise is based upon an assumption of what the average pH of the oceans was 265 years @ @ @ @ @ @ @ measure pH at all , never mind over all the world ’ s oceans .
Laboratory experiments in which pH was kept within a range that may feasibly occur during this century show a slight positive effect on five critical factors : calcification , metabolism , growth , fertility and survival .
Of most importance is the fact that those raising the alarm about ocean acidification do not take into account the ability of living species to adapt to a range of environmental conditions .
This is one of the fundamental characters of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ‘ The specter of ‘ ocean acidification ’ has no basis in the scientific data ’ – Study finds fears ‘ based on mathematical modeling rather than field data ’ Ocean Acidification : No Evidence of Impending Harm to Sea Life 3 More New Papers Expose The Folly Of ‘ Ocean Acidification ’ Claims Surprise : Ocean acidification quite good for some shells The ‘ Ocean Acidification ’ Narrative Collapses Under The Weight Of New Scientific Evidence New publication demonstrates that scientists have routinely exaggerated the “ evil twin of climate change ” @ @ @ @ @ @ @ private that they can ’ t name any place affected by ocean acidification


climatedepot--2020-07-17--Green Crimes Division: Biden’s $2 Trillion Climate Plan includes ‘creating Environmental & Climate J

Green Crimes Division: Biden’s $2 Trillion Climate Plan includes ‘creating Environmental & Climate Justice Division at Department of Justice

NPR : `` Biden 's climate initiative calls to chart the United States on `` an irreversible path '' to net-zero carbon emissions by 2050 .
To do that , the plan would aim to achieve a carbon pollution-free power sector by 2035 .
It would also upgrade 4 million buildings and weatherize 2 million homes over four years to increase energy efficiency .
And the proposal , Biden 's campaign said , would seek to shift major cities toward public transportation and `` create millions of good , union jobs rebuilding America 's crumbling infrastructure . ''
The former @ @ @ @ @ @ @ $ 2 trillion price tag , with plans to deploy those resources at an accelerated pace during his first term .
The proposal also includes environmental justice components , such as creating an Environmental and Climate Justice Division within the Department of Justice . ''
Excerpt : The Biden Administration will establish a new Environmental and Climate Justice Division within the DOJ , as proposed by Governor Inslee , to complement the work of the Environment and Natural Resources Division .
In line with the new Division ’ s mandate , Biden will @ @ @ @ @ @ @ i ) implement , to the extent possible by executive action , Senator Booker ’ s Environmental Justice Act of 2019 ; ( ii ) increase enforcement , in line with the commitments already detailed in the Biden Plan ; ( iii ) strategically support ongoing plaintiff-driven climate litigation against polluters ; ( iv ) address legacy pollution that includes real remedies to make communities safe , healthy , and whole ; and ( v ) work hand-in-hand with EPA ’ s Office of Civil Rights .
• Elevate environmental justice in the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Currently , the federal government has two key environmental justice groups .
Biden will elevate and reestablish the groups as the White House Environmental Justice Advisory Council and White House Environmental Justice Interagency Council , both reporting directly to the Chair of the White House Council on Environmental Quality ( CEQ ) , who reports directly to the President .
To support this work , Biden ’ s CEQ will also have senior and dedicated environmental justice staff .
These two councils will be charged with revising EO 12898 in order to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in collaboration with local environmental justice leaders .
And , they will be tasked with developing clear performance metrics to ensure accountability in the implementation of the Executive Order .
Once the revised EO is finalized , the White House Environmental Justice Advisory Council and White House Environmental Justice Interagency Council will publish an annual public performance score-card on its implementation .
Presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden on Tuesday outlined an updated climate plan , seeking to invest $ 2 trillion to boost clean energy and rebuild infrastructure .
The proposal is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ agenda called “ Build Back Better , ” which he first detailed last week in Pennsylvania .
Biden ’ s climate initiative calls to chart the United States on “ an irreversible path ” to net-zero carbon emissions by 2050 .
To do that , the plan would aim to achieve a carbon pollution-free power sector by 2035 .
It would also upgrade 4 million buildings and weatherize 2 million homes over four years to increase energy efficiency .
And the proposal , Biden ’ s campaign said , would seek to shift @ @ @ @ @ @ @ create millions of good , union jobs rebuilding America ’ s crumbling infrastructure.
” The former vice president ’ s plan comes with a $ 2 trillion price tag , with plans to deploy those resources at an accelerated pace during his first term .
The proposal also includes environmental justice components , such as creating an Environmental and Climate Justice Division within the Department of Justice .
In a statement , Trump ’ s reelection campaign said Biden ’ s proposals would “ destroy jobs , ” and the former vice president @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of such a plan.
” Team Trump also said Biden is “ embracing the far-left climate positions ” of people such as Washington Gov .
Jay Inslee .
Indeed Inslee , who ran for the Democratic presidential nomination on a climate platform , called Biden ’ s new plan “ visionary ” in a New York Times interview .
The climate initiatives follow the unveiling of lengthy policy recommendations from joint task forces created by Biden and his onetime primary rival , the progressive Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont .


climatedepot--2020-07-17--Claim: Biden Is Campaigning On The Green New Deal — ‘Minus the Crazy’

Joe Biden has embraced the Green New Deal .
He might not have uttered those magic words on Tuesday while unveiling his campaign ’ s new , far-reaching plan to combat climate change and revitalize the U.S. economy , but he didn ’ t have to .
In substance and spirit , the Democratic nominee has signed on to the concept ’ s most important pieces , while doing away with some of its more controversial , and less essential , trappings .
It ’ s understandable why Biden might avoid the branding .
For many moderates and conservatives , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ green new deal ” itself has become a shorthand for leftist overreach .
In part , that ’ s because no one group can really claim complete ownership of the idea and some maximalist versions favored by young activists have included things like Medicare for All and a federal jobs guarantee , along with zeroing out carbon emissions , which make their proposals look a bit like democratic-socialist wishlists disguised as plans to stop global warming .
When Democrats in Congress actually tried to write up an official Green New Deal framework in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ circulated by Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez ’ s staff explained that they ’ d lowered their 10-year emissions goals a bit “ because we aren ’ t sure that we ’ ll be able to fully get rid of farting cows and airplanes that fast.
” The result has been a never-ending stream of jokes about banning hamburgers—the kind of crazy that Biden , whose whole candidacy is basically comfort food for America ’ s moderates , would like to avoid .
But when it comes to actual climate policy , the Green New @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and serious philosophical shift .
In the past , Democrats have wanted to reduce emissions through market-oriented mechanisms like a carbon tax or cap and trade .
You still see prominent strains of that thinking today , such as when a bipartisan group of 45 renowned economists , including former Federal Reserve Chairs and nobel laureates , signed an open letter in the Wall Street Journal calling for a carbon-tax-and-dividend scheme .
Green New Dealers have taken a different , less market-focused approach , combining clean power mandates that would force a shift @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and industrial policy designed to create jobs , and a strong emphasis on environmental justice for communities hardest hit by pollution .
Instead of putting a price on CO2 and letting capitalism do its magic , the new generation of climate hawks want to force power companies and other emitters to abandon fossil fuels while using the federal purse to put people to work and reinvent the American economy .
Biden ’ s primary season climate plan included some of those pillars , and even referred to the Green New Deal as a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ new version adopts it much more fully .
The candidate ’ s original platform called for $ 1.7 trillion in spending over 10 years , and set a goal of zero net emissions by 2050 .
The new edition ups the price tag to $ 2 trillion over four years ( there ’ s your massive spending ) , and aims to scrub carbon from the electricity sector by 2035 using a clean energy standard for utilities ( there ’ s your mandate ) .
Biden has also rolled out a “ made-in-America @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of government procurement and R & D funding to build up domestic sectors like renewable batteries and electric vehicles ( there ’ s your industrial policy ) .
And the campaign has outlined an extensive proposal to “ secure environmental justice ” by directing 40 percent of its climate spending to disadvantaged communities .
Biden is borrowing some of his new ideas directly from Washington Governor Jay Inslee , whose short presidential run made him a folk hero to climate hawks .
The proposal to achieve clean electricity by 2035 comes from Inslee @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for to create a Civilian Climate Corps that would work on restoration and resilience projects , a direct nod to Franklin Roosevelt ’ s original New Deal-era Civilian Conservation Corps .
As writers like Vox ’ s Dave Roberts have noted , Inslee ’ s campaign essentially wrote a a nuts-and-bolts “ instruction manual ” for achieving the Green New Deal ’ s climate goals , even if he didn ’ t quite use the name .
Now , the former veep appears to be reading from it .
“ Basically , Joe @ @ @ @ @ @ @ our view , substantively , ” Julian Brave NoiseCat , the vice president of strategy and policy at the progressive polling and policy shop Data for Progress , told me .
( His outfit was among the first to outline what a Green New Deal might actually look like , releasing a plan in September 2018 . )
Other left-wing groups haven ’ t gone quite that far , in part because Biden ’ s plan doesn ’ t adopt some of their more absolutist stances on energy .
Unlike his former opponent @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , Biden wouldn ’ t ban natural gas and oil fracking or phase out nuclear power , and he leaves the door open to carbon capture technology , which some environmentalists see as distracting techno-optimism , and a lot of others think will be absolutely essential if we want to keep the planet from frying .
Also , on the list of differences : AOC and Sen. Ed Markey wanted to move the country to clean energy in 10 years , whereas Biden ’ s timeline is longer and more realistic .
And @ @ @ @ @ @ @ t signing on to Medicare for All .
But activists are still clearly happy with Biden ’ s leftward shift .
The Sunrise Movement , the youth activist organization closely associated with the Green New Deal , issued an approving statement that took credit for teaching Joe Bide to “ talk the talk ” on climate , and promised to make him “ walk the walk.
” The group had previously given Biden ’ s climate plan an “ F ” grade during the Democratic primary .
What ’ s important about all @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is that the activist wing of the Democratic party and its temperamentally moderate presidential nominee now appear to be closely aligned when it comes to their core approach to economic and climate policy .
While Biden was getting ready to give his climate speech Tuesday , I happened to be talking with one of his longtime economic advisers , Jared Bernstein .
I asked what part of his agenda Biden was most excited about .
“ I think what gets him particularly excited is doing something in the clean energy space that also @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ re doing well by doing good , ” Bernstein told me .
What ’ s more , talking the talk comes extremely naturally to Biden .
The Green New Deal , in the end , is meant to connect job creation and climate policy in the minds of voters .
Adopting it as a keystone of his campaign gives Biden an excuse rhapsodize about bringing back well-paying blue collar jobs .
“ Look , these aren ’ t pie in the sky dreams , ” he said in his speech Tuesday .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ can get to work on right away.
” “ When Donald Trump thinks about renewable energy , he sees windmills somehow causing cancer , ” Biden told the crowd .
“ When I think about these windmills , I see American manufacturing , American workers rising to dominate the global markets .
I see steel that will be needed for those windmill platforms , towers and ladders which could be made in small manufacturers .
I see the union-certified men and women who will manufacture and install it all .
I see the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ longshoremen and the shipbuilders and the communities they support.
” That ’ s the Green New Deal , minus a bit of crazy .


climatedepot--2020-07-20--New Polar Bear ‘Death’ Model Based On Junk Science And Climate Porn

A prediction that polar bears could be nearly extinct by 2100 ( which was first suggested back in 2007 ) is news today because there is a new model .
As for all previous models , this prediction of future polar bear devastation depends on using the so-called ‘ business as usual ’ RCP8.5 climate scenario , which has been roundly criticized in recent years as totally implausible , which even the BBC has mentioned .
This new model , published today as a pay-walled paper in Nature Climate Change , also did something I warned against in my last @ @ @ @ @ @ @ collected up to 2009 only from Western Hudson Bay – which is an outlier in many respects – to predict the response of bears worldwide .
The lead author , Peter Molnar , is a former student of vocal polar bear catastrophist Andrew Derocher – who himself learned his trade from the king of polar bear calamity forecasts , Ian Stirling .
Steven Amstrup , another co-author of this paper , provided the ‘ expert opinion ’ for the failed USGS polar bear extinction modelfeatured in my book , The Polar Bear Catastrophe @ @ @ @ @ @ @ authors and their supporters got the headlines they crave , including coverage by outlets like the BBC and New York Times ( see below ) , but I have to say that the combination of using out-of-date Western Hudson Bay information on when polar bears come ashore in summer and leave for the ice in fall ( only to 2009 ) to make vague projections ( ‘ possible ’ , ‘ likely ’ , ‘ very likely ’ ) about all other subpopulations in addition to depending on the most extreme and now @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Peters 2020 ) for this newest polar bear survival model is all that ’ s needed to dismiss it as exaggerated-fear-mongering-by-proxy .
Why would anyone believe that the output of this new model describes a plausible future for polar bears ?
Meanwhile , polar bear populations worldwide continue to thrive despite declines in sea ice .
And as I have pointed out on numerous occasions , the ice-free period for WH has not continued to decline since 1998 but rather has remained stable ( with yearly variation ) at about 3 weeks longer @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Castro de la Guardia et al 2017 ) .
Moreover , for the last five years at least , including this one , the ice-free season for WH bears has been better ( only 1-2 weeks longer than the 1980s ) , although no official data on this phenomenon has yet been published .
Oddly , this more recent data for Hudson Bay was not used for the Molnar model .
Also this year , the first polar bears off the ice in Western Hudson Bay are at least two weeks later than @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Andrew Derocher ’ s first tagged bear came to shore 17 July 2020 ( see below ) : The first tag-free bear spotted onshore at Wakusp National Park south of Churchill by live webcams was caught on film 13 July ( see video below and notice how fat it is ) .
Other photos over the last few days show very fat bears and cubs just off the ice .
All of this means that the mean date of all bears off the ice this summer will almost certainly be early August – @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 1980s .
The lead author of this new paper ( Molnar et al .
2020 ) , Peter Molnar , has written something similar before .
He concocted a model for Western Hudson Bay polar bear survival a decade ago ( Molnar et al .
2010 ) that predicted 28-48 % of male polar bears in WH would die if climate change caused the fasting period to be extended from the 120 days ( 4 months ) that were usual during the 1980s to 180 days ( 6 months ) sometime in the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ together a similar model generating similar results a couple of years later ( Robbins et al .
2012 ) , which I wrote about here .
Here is a quote from the methods that show even their preferred polar bear vs. sea ice data for WH could not be used without fiddling with it because it didn ’ t fit their assumptions of what the bears should be doing ( my bold ) : “ …we assumed that fast duration is linked to the annual number of ice-free days in each subpopulation region @ @ @ @ @ @ @ observed and modelled daily sea-ice concentrations , and linked our estimates to reported annual migration dates of polar bears in the Western Hudson Bay subpopulation to ensure that each year ’ s first and last fasting day were defined from a polar bear ’ s perspective .
The ice-free season was defined as the period when the extent in a subpopulation region is below a critical value .
Our choice of this critical extent was based on when polar bears in the Western Hudson Bay subpopulation were observed to arrive on-shore ( leaving @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the land ( returning to ice ) in autumn .
The migration dates were assessed from bear locations tracked by satellite-linked radio collars in 1991–2009 , as reported in ref .
38 [ Cherry et al .
2013 ] .
The mean days of the year of bear on-shore arrival and departure to sea ice were 212 [ 31 July ] and 329 [ 25 November ] , respectively ( averaged across all bears in all available years from 1991–2009 ; Extended Data Fig .
2 ) .
However , according to Extended @ @ @ @ @ @ @ sea-ice extent in Western Hudson Bay on day 212 was extremely low ( 3.8 % of the annual maximum in the years 1991–2009 ) , suggesting that bears may have lingered on a few persistent clusters of small , highly ridged floes , which could provide cover for aquatic stalks , before giving up on the ice and coming ashore .
In contrast , on day 329 , the extent was 48.5 % of the annual maximum in 1991–2009 in the Western Hudson Bay subpopulation region [ i.e .
they know bears leave @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 5-10 % ice-covered ] .
Because ice extent differed substantially between bear arrival and departure dates , we chose one critical extent that is a compromise between the two , and computed times when extent first crosses the critical value for three consecutive days in summer and fall ( Extended Data Fig .
1 ) .
Then , because the fasting period is defined as the number of days between the bears ’ on-shore arrival in summer and their departure to sea ice in autumn , we adjusted the days of the year @ @ @ @ @ @ @ offsets to match the mean observed arrival/departure ( and hence fast initiation/cessation ) dates in the Western Hudson Bay subpopulation ( Extended Data Fig .
2 ) .
In essence , offsets at the start and end of the ice-free season are estimates of how long bears will linger on the last persistent floes after the extent has fallen below the critical value , and of how long it takes the bears to return to the ice after it rises above the critical value .
We sought a critical extent that allows a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ with polar bears eager to get back on the sea ice after a long fast ) and a moderate offset in summer ( suggesting that polar bears continue on-ice foraging for as long as possible ) .
Dr. Susan Crockford is a zoologist ( former adjunct professor , University of Victoria ) specializing in Holocene mammals , including polar bears and walruses .
Her new book is called The Polar Bear Catastrophe That Never Happened ( Amazon ) .


climatedepot--2020-07-20--New Study Shows CO2 Changes Lag Decadal-Scale Warming By ~1000 Years In The Northern Hemisphere

From about 80,000 to 20,000 years ago , Greenland temperatures abruptly warmed by about 10°C in just a few decades on at least 20 occasions .
And then , about 870 to 1,500 years later , CO2 rose .
Li and Born ( 2019 ) document 8-16°C climate warmings ( Dansgaard-Oeschger events ) in Greenland that extended to both hemispheres between about 80 and 20 thousand years ago .
( Though global in scope , temperature changes were less pronounced outside Greenland . )
These abrupt warmings occurred within decades ( or less ) .
It has been suggested the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , as they ’ re considered an “ unforced oscillation ” .
A new study ( Shin et al.
, 2020 ) suggests the about 1,000 years after these warming events occurred , CO2 concentrations rose .
Despite the millennial-scale duration of this lag relative to the decadal-scale temperature changes , there are many who believe CO2 changes are a driver of warming .
“ However , the CO2 decrease did not always start at exactly the same time as the onset of the DO warming , and the lag itself varied .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ ( MIS ) 3 , atmospheric CO2 maxima lagged behind abrupt temperature change in Greenland by 870±90 yrs .
During MIS 5 , the lag of atmospheric CO2 maxima with respect to abrupt temperature warming in the NH was only about 250±190 yrs ( Bereiter et al.
, 2012 ) .
… During MIS 6d which corresponds to CDM 6d.1 and 6d.2 , CO2 concentrations show a much slower increase over a duration of ~3.3 kyr .
Here , CO2 lags behind the onset of the NH abrupt warming by 1,500±280 yrs and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ yrs on average ) .
”


climatedepot--2020-07-20--The Pandemic Panic Shows Us Why Science Needs Skeptics

The dumpster fire of COVID predictions has shown exactly why it ’ s important to sustain and nurture skeptics , lest we blunder into scientific monoculture and groupthink .
And yet the explosion of “ cancel culture ” intolerance of any opinion that doesn ’ t fit a shrinking “ 3 x 5 card ” of right-think risks destroying the very tolerance and science that sustains our civilization .
Since World War II , America has suffered two respiratory pandemics comparable to COVID-19 : the 1958 “ Asian flu , ” then the 1969 “ Hong Kong flu.
” In @ @ @ @ @ @ @ economy—people were simply more careful .
Not all that careful , of course—Jimi Hendrix was playing at Woodstock in the middle of the 1969 pandemic , and social distancing wasn ’ t really a thing in the “ Summer of Love.
” And yet COVID-19 was very different thanks to a single “ buggy mess ” of a computer prediction from one Neil Ferguson , a British epidemiologist given to hysterical overestimates of deaths , from mad cow to bird flu to H1N1 .
For COVID-19 , Ferguson predicted 3 million deaths in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ economy .
Panicked policymakers took his prediction as gospel , dressed as it was in the cloak of science .
Now , long after governments plunged half the world into a Great Depression , those panicked revisions are being quietly revised down by an order of magnitude , now suggesting a final tally comparable to 1958 and 1969 .
COVID-19 would have been a deadly pandemic with or without Ferguson ’ s fantasies , but had we known the true scale and parameters of the threat we might have chosen better-tailored means to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ sustaining the wider economy .
After all , economists have long known that mass unemployment and widespread bankruptcies carry enormous health consequences that are very real to the victims suffering drained life savings , ruined businesses , broken families , widespread mental and physical health deterioration , even suicide .
COVID-19 has illustrated the importance of free and robust inquiry .
After all , panicked politicians facing media accusations of “ killing grandma ” aren ’ t in a very good position to evaluate these tradeoffs , and they need intellectual ammunition .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ is best , but to bolster them when a left-wing media establishment attacks .
Moreover , voters need this ammunition so they can actually tell the politicians what to do .
This means two things : debate that is transparent , and debate that is tolerant of skeptics .
Transparency means data and computer code open to public scrutiny as the minimum requirement for any study that is used to justify policy , from lockdowns to carbon taxes to whatever comes next .
These studies must be based on verifiable facts , code @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , and the ensuing decision-making process must be transparent and open to the public .
One former Indian bureaucrat put it well : “ Emergency situations like this pandemic should require a far higher—and not lower—level of scrutiny , ” since policy choices have such tremendous impact .
“ This suggests a need for democracies to strengthen their critical thinking capacity by creating an independent ‘ Black Hat ’ institution whose purpose would be to question any technical foundations of government decisions.
” Even more important than transparency , the debate must be @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ideas that are wrong , offensive , even dangerous , have to be tolerated , even celebrated .
By all means , refute them—most alternative hypotheses are completely wrong , so it shouldn ’ t be hard to simply refute them without censorship .
This , after all , is the essence of science—to generate hypotheses testable by anybody , not just licensed “ experts.
” Whether we are faced with a new crisis , a new policy innovation , or simply designing a better mousetrap , groupthink and censorship are recipes for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ tolerance of new ideas are the very essences of progress .
Indeed , it is largely this scientific tolerance that allowed us to rise up from the long , brutal darkness of poverty .
As Francis Bacon observed three hundred years ago , innovation and new knowledge do not come from prestigious “ learned ” insiders , rather progress comes from the questioner , the tinkerer , the skeptic .
The industry of artificers maketh some small improvement of things invented , and chance sometimes in experimenting maketh us to stumble upon somewhat @ @ @ @ @ @ @ disputation of the learned never brought to light one effect of nature before unknown .
( In Praise of Knowledge , vol .
1 , [ 1740 ] 1850 ) Indeed , every major scientific advance challenged the “ settled science ” of its day and was often denounced as pernicious and false , even dangerous .
The modern blood transfusion , for example , was developed in the late 1600s , then banned for nearly a century by a hostile medical establishment , “ canceling ” tens of millions of lives at @ @ @ @ @ @ @ skeptics .
It ’ s comforting to know that our problems are old ones , and also encouraging that our solution is both time-tested and simple : transparency and tolerance .
After all , the very reason our culture elevates science is because it is built on a millennia-long evolutionary “ battle of ideas ” in which theories are constantly tested and retested in a delightfully endless search for ever better understanding .
This implies there is no such thing as “ settled science ” —the phrase itself is contrary to the scientific @ @ @ @ @ @ @ not some billion-dollar gleaming palace in Bethesda , rather it ’ s a gnarled mutant sewer rat that takes all comers because it ’ s been burned , cut , run over , crushed , run through the wood chipper , and survived .
That ugly beast is our salvation , not the gleaming palace where we bow down to whichever random guy has the biggest degree in the room .
Only with the free inquiry for the most unpopular , offensive , dangerous , and , yes , wrong ideas imaginable does @ @ @ @ @ @ @ break that , we can expect a series of rapid catastrophes that , like failed golden ages of the past , return us to the nasty , brutish , and very short lives that have been humanity ’ s norm .
Whether pandemic , climate change , “ institutional racism , ” or whatever new crisis they conjure next , we have a fundamental right to tenaciously defend the transparency and tolerance that constitutes science itself so that it remains among humanity ’ s crowning achievements , and so that we preserve this @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .