climatedepot--2020-05-14--‘Morphing viral fears into climate fears’: Warmists Podesta, Kerry, Holdren & Steyer try to blame Tr

‘Morphing viral fears into climate fears’: Warmists Podesta, Kerry, Holdren & Steyer try to blame Trump for COVID & climate

A cadre of Obama-era heavy hitters led by John Podesta fired up another effort Wednesday to put global warming at the forefront of the presidential campaign , this time by linking President Trump ’ s skepticism of a climate doomsday to the novel coronavirus outbreak .
Mr. Podesta , the former Obama White House chief of staff who chaired Hillary Clinton ’ s unsuccessful 2016 presidential bid , unveiled Climate Power 2020 with a blast at Mr. Trump ’ s “ anti-science policies , ” which he said have “ fueled the pandemic.
” “ President Trump must be held @ @ @ @ @ @ @ facts , and reality .
For both COVID-19 and the climate crisis , the anti-science policies from this administration are pushing our nation into crisis , ” Mr. Podesta said in a written statement .
In addition to Mr. Podesta , the advisory board features San Francisco billionaire Tom Steyer , the Democratic Party ’ s largest individual donor and a candidate for the party ’ s presidential nomination , as well as Obama administration figures including Secretary of State John F. Kerry , EPA Administrator Gina McCarthy , Energy Secretary Ernest Moniz @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Today , it fueled a pandemic , ” Mr. Podesta said .
“ Tomorrow , we will see the consequences in a world destabilized by climate change .
Climate Power 2020 will change the politics of climate — pushing all candidates to aggressively campaign on climate action and holding science-denying campaigns accountable.
” Skeptics called the link between climate change and COVID-19 a stretch — given that the virus originated late last year in Wuhan , China , a signatory to the 2015 Paris climate agreement — while noting that this isn ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ have sought to push climate to the electoral forefront .
JunkScience.com ’ s Steve Milloy , a member of the Trump Environmental Protection Agency transition team , called it “ the umpteenth time the usual cast of climate leftovers have been reheated.
” “ If at first you don ’ t succeed , try , try again , ” said Climate Depot ’ s Marc Morano .
“ The climate activists led by Podesta , Kerry , Holdren and Steyer are desperate to keep ‘ climate change ’ alive in the presidential campaign @ @ @ @ @ @ @ climate to COVID and blame both on President Trump.
” They have their work cut out for them , given that climate change has consistently ranked at or near the bottom of voters ’ concerns .
A Harris Poll survey for Inerjys Ventures released Tuesday found that 62 % of U.S. adults surveyed said climate change wouldn ’ t damage the U.S. economy if left unaddressed .
A Reuters/Ipsos poll taken in June showed that most Americans were unwilling to install solar panels , carpool or take the bus , reduce meat-eating , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , drive an electric car or spend $ 100 more on their annual electricity bill to fight climate change .
With the coronavirus outbreak , however , Democrats and climate activists have sought to whip up outrage by “ morphing viral fears into climate fears , ” said Mr. Morano , whose “ Climate Hustle 2 ” is expected to be released by early June .
“ They are jealous of the swift , all-encompassing virus-induced lockdowns , and they want in on the action , ” he said in an email .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ sense in claims to hold President Trump ‘ accountable ’ for ‘ both COVID-19 and the climate crisis.
’ This is all nothing more than lowbrow election-year politicking.
” Still , with savvy strategists like Mr. Podesta and deep pockets like Mr. Steyer in the mix , there is no doubt Climate Power 2020 has the political and financial juice to push its message .
An independent project of the leftist Center for American Progress Action Fund — Mr. Podesta founded the center in 2003 — the campaign has partnered with the Sierra @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is focusing on eight potential swing states : Arizona , Colorado , Florida , Georgia , Michigan , North Carolina , Pennsylvania and Wisconsin .
The campaign ’ s launch included a 90-minute online video that showed store shelves picked clean during the coronavirus crisis juxtaposed with shots of hurricanes and flooding .
“ Americans are facing a future in crisis from coronavirus to climate change , ” said the narrator .
“ President Trump is failing to protect us .
He doesn ’ t believe in science .
He ignores experts .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ Sterling Burnett , senior fellow at the free market Heartland Institute , pointed out that “ scientists haven ’ t said that climate change has caused the coronavirus.
” If anything , he said , the president has been accused of relying too heavily on White House public health experts such as Dr. Anthony Fauci , director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases .
“ As far as following the science , in my opinion , Trump has been too deferential to scientists during this pandemic , ” said Mr. @ @ @ @ @ @ @ changes his mind every two weeks on what we should do , and policy lurches back and forth , and Democrats in their states only latch onto Fauci ’ s statements that support their position that we should shut down the economy forever.
” Has climate change fueled an increase in disease ?
A study released May 8 by the London-based Global Warming Policy Foundation found the opposite .
It reported dramatic reductions in climate-related mortality over the past 30 years , even as atmospheric carbon dioxide levels rose .
The report by @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , a U.S. delegate to the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change , found that “ cumulative annual rates of deaths and disease from [ climate-sensitive disease and events ] are declining , and declining faster than the corresponding all-cause rates.
” “ You see improvement across the board , but most notably there has been a wholesale rolling-back of the biggest killers like diarrhea and malaria , ” said Mr. Goklany , who holds a doctoral degree in electrical engineering .
His report refutes the thrust of the 2019 Lancet Countdown on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that a “ changing climate has profound implications for human health , with more frequent heatwaves and extreme weather events , changing patterns of infectious disease , and the exacerbation of existing health challenges around the world.
” Mr. Goklany said that the U.N.-affiliated researchers “ highlight comparatively rare conditions , like dengue , which have worsened , while ignoring the wider picture , which is almost all good news .
It ’ s highly misleading.
” The pandemic-caused economic downturn may have hurt the prospects of climate policies such as the Green @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , New York Democrat .
The proposal ’ s price tag has been estimated in the tens of trillions of dollars , said Benny Peiser , director of the Global Warming Policy Foundation .
“ Almost all U.S. politicians who have tried to make climate change an election issue in the past have fared miserably , losing election after election , ” Mr. Peiser said .
“ Repeating the same mistake and trying to sell the Green New Deal to voters in an unprecedented economic crisis and expecting different results borders on political @ @ @ @ @ @ @


climatedepot--2020-05-14--Attention, Citizens! The COVID-19 Emergency Is Over! – ‘Lockdowns are far, far more destructive than

Attention, Citizens! The COVID-19 Emergency Is Over! – ‘Lockdowns are far, far more destructive than the virus’

Around the world , both state and local governments looked at wildly exaggerated computer model projections of millions of virus deaths , declared a “ State Of Emergency ” , and foolishly pulled the wheels off of their own economies .
This has caused pain , suffering , and loss that far exceeds anything that the virus might do .
The virus hardly affects anyone—it has killed a maximum of 0.1 % of the population in the very worst-hit locations .
One-tenth of one measly percent .
Ah , I hear you saying , but that ’ s just deaths @ @ @ @ @ @ @ asked .
Hospitalizations in the worst-hit areas have been about three times that , about a third of one percent of the population .
Still not even one percent .
But on the other hand , more than thirty million workers in the US are unemployed .
That ’ s about twenty percent of the number of full and part-time employees .
And that job loss affects the entire household , not just the workers .
And that doesn ’ t count the loss of life from increased suicides and from delayed medical @ @ @ @ @ @ @ count the fact that some 20 % of the lost jobs are not expected to return .
And we have calls to mental-health hotlines skyrocketing , and domestic violence through the roof .
In a most ironic outcome , we have hospitals and doctors going bankrupt , and thousands of nurses being furloughed , because “ non-essential ” medical procedures are forbidden .
Then there are the huge financial losses , both to the economy and to the government .
And in a beautifully circular process , we have trillions and trillions of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to offset some of the damages that the government just caused … these lockdowns are far , far more destructive than the virus .
The virus damage is short-lived , but we and our children will be paying for decades for our stupidity in killing the economy .
It ’ s like … it ’ s like … well , about the only example I can think of which has equivalent idiocy is if a mosquito were to land on your head and you grabbed a sledgehammer to get rid of it … @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is , don ’ t kill your economy to try to delay or avoid a few deaths .
It is possible to slow the spread of the virus without pulling the wheels off of the economy .
The next lesson of the emergency is , don ’ t put much trust in computer models .
The next lesson of the emergency is , don ’ t put doctors in charge of economic decisions .
Especially Dr. Fauci .
He ’ s been wrong about most aspects of this whole process .
If you @ @ @ @ @ @ @ as a general rule you shouldn ’ t hire a doctor … The next lesson of the emergency is the extreme importance of the ancient medical maxim of Hippocrates , a maxim that our dear Dr. Fauci apparently never heard of— “ Primum non nocere ” , which means “ First , do no harm ” .
The next lesson of the emergency is , quarantine the sick , protect the vulnerable , but do NOT quarantine the healthy .
That ’ s madness .
Let me set aside what we ’ ve @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
The emergency everyone feared was exemplified by the reality that in some countries , the medical system was overwhelmed by the number of COVID-19 cases .
The cause of this was that the cases came on too fast—the peak hospitalizations and deaths were packed into a week or two .
Early on in the pandemic , this peak in the load on the medical system in Italy caused parts of the system to collapse under the weight of cases .
To prevent that peak load from crushing the medical system , it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to “ flatten the curve ” by slowing the spread of the virus .
Note that the stated intention of flattening the curve was not to stop the virus .
The declared goal was to decrease the number of new cases per day , not to decrease the total number of new cases .
Figure 1 .
The theoretical effect of “ flattening the curve ” .
In that manner , rather than having a sharp peak in medical need , the curve would be flattened out and hopefully the medical system would @ @ @ @ @ @ @ this work ?
Hard to tell at this point .
However , we do have one example of a modern country that did NOT shut down and kill their economy to fight the virus , which is Sweden .
How are they doing ?
Here ’ s the comparison : Figure 2 .
Deaths per ten million over time , for the hardest-hit countries .
As you can see , Sweden is in the middle of the pack—a bit better than the UK and Switzerland , same as the Netherlands and Ireland , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and France .
So if the lockdowns and the “ shelter-at-home ” orders are having an effect , you couldn ’ t tell it by looking at Sweden .
And to return to the question of lowering the peak and flattening the curve , here are the results from a number of countries .
I ’ ll start with Sweden and the Netherlands , since per Figure 2 they are on the same path .
I ’ m using the Complete Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition ( CEEMD ) method to remove the fluctuations @ @ @ @ @ @ @ weekends .
See here and here for a discussion of the CEEMD method .
Figure 3 .
Daily deaths .
The black/yellow line is the CEEMD “ residual ” , which is the value of the data with the weekly and other regular fluctuations removed .
Figure 4 .
Daily deaths .
The black/yellow line is the CEEMD “ residual ” , which is the value of the data with the weekly and other regular fluctuations removed .
Both the Netherlands and Sweden are past the peak load on the medical system .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
The difference is … Sweden did not pull the wheels off of its economy and drive millions into joblessness and despair .
I know which path I prefer … Here are the daily deaths of a number of other countries .
I ’ ll start with Belgium , which is the hardest-hit country , and roll on down from there .
OK , so much for the countries .
All are about a month past their peak .
How about the US states ?
Here you go .
The spike in the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ day ’ s reporting of a bunch of “ overlooked ” deaths in nursing homes .
Bizarrely , Governor Cuomo ordered nursing homes to accept COVID-19 patients … so as you might imagine , the totally predictable nursing home deaths were concealed until their hand was forced .
I also note how resistant the CEEMD residual is to that single outlier data point of nursing home deaths .
A better-guess solution would be to spread those deaths out over the earlier time , distribute by the number of non-nursing home deaths .
Those @ @ @ @ @ @ @ not all of the hardest-hit states are past their peak .
Here are the two states of the hardest-hit that are not past their peak .
Finally , to close the circle before discussing all of this , here are two views of the world deaths , one with and one without China .
I left out China in one of them to see how much difference it made , because a ) China ’ s numbers are big , and b ) I don ’ t trust them one bit .
Here @ @ @ @ @ @ @ out that leaving out China makes very little difference .
So … given all of that , what can we conclude ?
Well , first in importance , if medical care was outpaced by the virus in some location and there was an emergency , the peak of the emergency is over now .
Yes , there are some states and countries yet to pass the peak .
But by and large , and in particular for the hardest-hit countries as well as for the world as a whole , the peak of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ about a month ago .
And that means that in those states and countries , whatever chance we had to “ flatten the curve ” is GONE .
The opportunity has passed .
For most of the world , curve flattening is history .
And since we were sold this bill of goods on the basis of “ flattening the curve ” , and since we ’ re now well past any opportunity to do that , let ’ s remove the restrictions .
Or as I ’ ve said for weeks , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Of course , the local petty tyrants who have vastly expanded powers under the “ emergency ” want to hold on to them .
So they ’ re now saying that we have something new to fear , a “ rebound ” or a “ second peak ” … me , I ’ ve said before that I think we will see very little in the way of any second peak , for a simple reason : Too many people in “ essential ” jobs , too many deliveries , too many @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Combine that with a very infectious virus , and the shelter in place will have little effect … and since it has had little effect when it was there , I say it will have little effect when it is removed .
Now , here ’ s my argument .
The various local instant totalitarian rulers derive their power from the State of Emergency .
But the emergency is past , we can ’ t flatten the curve now .
We ’ re past that , which means there is no further @ @ @ @ @ @ @ power now that the emergency is ended is illegitimate and illegal .
It ’ s also in some cases unconstitutional .
• In those countries and states that are past the peak , declare the emergency is over and open everything back up .
Acknowledge that the chance to flatten the curve is gone , and revoke each and every emergency order .
They are only valid for the duration of the emergency .
• Maintain some approximation of social distancing , on a voluntary basis .
• There are flareups in certain @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the regulationss .
There will be flareups after the regs are removed .
Get used to it .
A flareup is not a second peak .
• Maintain personal sanitation on a voluntary basis .
Wear a mask , wear gloves , wash hands , and for goodness sake , if you ’ re ordering bat soup , tell them to hold the bats … • Once the majority of the pandemic deaths are over , establish a testing and contact tracing process to keep track of the virus .
• Test people @ @ @ @ @ @ @ I know , I get tested more going in to get my blood drawn than do people entering the US .
• Keep a close watch on the numbers to see if there is some kind of “ second peak ” developing .
If and where that might happen , then in those areas that had trouble with the first peak , push policies that don ’ t kill the economy , and for heaven ’ s sake , quarantine the sick rather than the healthy .
• Encourage the vulnerable population ( @ @ @ @ @ @ @ . )
to self-isolate to some comfortable extent , to be extra vigilant in avoiding crowds , and to maintain a high level of personal sanitation .
Folks , the ugly reality is that every day we keep the now-useless lockdowns in place is another day of misery for a large chunk of the population .
COVID-19 is now a part of the virus landscape .
Let ’ s reclaim the power from the Federal , state , county , and city megalomaniacs who are issuing diktats and expecting everyone to obey .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ returned .
We didn ’ t get one drop in February , which is usually wet , so these late rains are most wonderful .
Best to all , stay well , AFTERWORD : I note today that Matt Briggs , Statistician To The Stars , has a new post up entitled “ There Is No Evidence Lockdowns Work “ .
His posts are always worth reading , and he actually is a statistician to the stars .
PS—When you comment , please quote the exact words you ’ re referring to .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ .

Thank you for being patient. We are doing some work on the site and will be back shortly.


climatedepot--2020-05-15--Biden-Sanders ‘unity task force’ includes role for AOC – Morano: ‘Joe Biden is all in on the Green N

Biden-Sanders ‘unity task force’ includes role for AOC – Morano: ‘Joe Biden is all in on the Green New Deal’

Joe Biden has announced a controversial freshman congresswoman will help lead a “ task force ” on climate change in the coming months .
Biden announced this week that Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez would help lead one of the new “ unity task forces ” along with a second lawmaker , Rep. Pramila Jayapal , The Washington Free Beacon reported .
The “ unity ” effort , the Free Beacon reported , comes after Biden worked with Sen. Bernie Sanders and his campaign to create “ joint task forces ” to address climate change , immigration , health care , education @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Biden ’ s selection of Ocasio-Cortez is viewed by some as an attempt to woo young voters , and environmentally conscious voters , after the leftist lawmaker pushed the anti-fossil fuel Green New Deal last year .
Biden is possibly appeasing Sanders and Ocasio-Cortez to woo communists and socialists , too , since Sanders is a self-described socialist and Ocasio-Cortez won election as a “ Justice Democrat ” who has openly backed far-left candidates over less-liberal incumbent Democrats .
“ It ’ s frightening that AOC would be in charge of the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , ” responds Marc Morano , a skeptic of man-made climate change .
“ What this means is Joe Biden is all in on the Green New Deal.
” AOC and other far-left Democrats proudly introduced the Green New Deal last year only to witness their own party run from a Senate resolution in a procedural vote offered by Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell .
In 2019 , the American Action Forum , led by former CBO Director Douglas Holtz-Eakin , said the Green New Deal would cost $ 93 trillion .
Responding @ @ @ @ @ @ @ cost of the Green New Deal , Ocasio-Cortez replied that the it “ costs us $ 0 if passed.
” She also called the Senate vote on the Green New Deal a “ non-binding resolution of values .
”


climatedepot--2020-05-15--Climate Alarmist Rahmstorf Quietly Concedes Models Are Crap, Running Way Too Hot

Rahmstorf : `` The comparative study by researchers from the University of Exeter now shows that in particular the warming since 1975 – i.e .
most of the modern global warming – is clearly too strong in the sensitive models .
More recent analyses by ETH Zurich , for which more models have already been evaluated , confirm this conclusion .
This is a reason to breathe a sigh of relief : there is currently some evidence that these models are not better than the old ones , but are simply too sensitive . ''
Stefan Rahmstorf on the IPCC @ @ @ @ @ @ @ sigh of relief , new climate models are far too sensitive .
DER SPIEGEL provides a regular platform for the controversial climate scientist Stefan Rahmstorf .
On 12 May 2020 he was allowed to : Here the quick reader will suspect one of the usual Rahmstorf climate alarm pieces .
And this is exactly how the beginning of the article reads .
However , it deals with a tricky topic that will certainly hit the Potsdam scientists quite hard to the stomach .
In the course of the preparation of the 6th Climate @ @ @ @ @ @ @ run a large number of climate models .
This time , however , a huge mishap has occurred .
Several of the models have delivered far too much warming , which is not compatible with the measured data of the last decades .
This fundamentally casts the models into question .
They suggest that the warming effect of CO2 is far too high .
A scandal that should actually cast everything into question .
Rahmstorf plays it dumb at the beginning of the article , luring his readers into the alarm trap .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ ?
This is the typical Rahmstorf narrative .
But if you can make it to the end of the article , you will be surprised .
Rahmstorf actually admits quietly that the models are crap , running way too hot .
In reality it ’ s all not so bad .
Rahmstorf writes literally in his article : The comparative study by researchers from the University of Exeter now shows that in particular the warming since 1975 – i.e .
most of the modern global warming – is clearly too strong in the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ETH Zurich , for which more models have already been evaluated , confirm this conclusion .
This is a reason to breathe a sigh of relief : there is currently some evidence that these models are not better than the old ones , but are simply too sensitive.
“ Did SPIEGEL force its guest author to write this article ?
Was this a prerequisite for him to continue writing there ?
A balanced presentation with a fair evaluation of all opinions represented in science has never really been Rahmstorf ’ s strength .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ front because the modelling failure was all too obvious and Rahmstorf feared complete professional isolation ?
It ’ s hard to say .


climatedepot--2020-05-15--Fuzzy Math: Ocasio-Cortez Tells Critic Green New Deal ‘Costs us $0 If Passed’

Democratic New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez ripped one of her critics Thursday for suggesting the Green New Deal would cost Americans a fortune and require the government to confiscate every penny from billionaire and multimillionaires .
Ocasio-Cortez scolded conservative columnist Jonah Goldberg Thursday for saying in a tweet that taking every dollar from the likes of Bill Gates , Jeff Bezos , and others would not “ cover a fraction of your Green New Deal fantasy.
” “ Totally get it if you ’ ve never bothered to read the legislation you ’ re commenting so authoritatively on , ” @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the GND is a “ non-binding resolution of values ” and “ costs us $ 0 if passed.
” Ocasio-Cortez ’ s signature legislation calls for several progressive proposals , including moving the United States off of fossil fuels within a decade , providing universal health care , basic income programs , and job guarantees , as well as a slew of other ambitious plans .
The GND would cost $ 0 if it remained a non-binding resolution and was not coupled with legislation satisfying the deal ’ s agenda .
Several reports @ @ @ @ @ @ @ GND would be an expensive boondoggle .
The GND would cost households an average of between $ 74,287 and $ 76,683 in Colorado , Michigan , and Pennsylvania , a February report from the Competitive Enterprise Institute noted .
CEI , a conservative-leaning think tank , incorporated the costs of electricity production within the first year after Ocasio-Cortez ’ s deal ’ s implementation and the costs of a one-time upgrade to buildings and vehicles .
They also determined how the plan ’ s mandate would increase the cost of logistics in a @ @ @ @


climatedepot--2020-05-15--Climatologist Dr. Roy Spencer: Current Economic Slowdown Won’t Show Up CO2 Emissions – Reduction in

Climatologist Dr. Roy Spencer: Current Economic Slowdown Won’t Show Up CO2 Emissions – Reduction in economic activity would have to be 4 times larger to halt CO2 rise

Summary : Atmospheric levels of carbon dioxide ( CO2 ) continue to increase with no sign of the global economic slowdown in response to the spread of COVID-19 .
This is because the estimated reductions in CO2 emissions ( around -11 % globally during 2020 ) is too small a reduction to be noticed against a background of large natural variability .
The reduction in economic activity would have to be 4 times larger than 11 % to halt the rise in atmospheric CO2 .
Changes in the atmospheric reservoir of CO2 occur when there is an imbalance between surface @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the global land and ocean areas emit approximately 30 times as much CO2 into the atmosphere as humans produce from burning of fossil fuels , they also absorb about an equal amount of CO2 .
This is the global carbon cycle , driven mostly by biological activity .
There are variations in the natural carbon cycle , such as during El Nino ( more CO2 accumulation in the atmosphere ) and La Nina ( more CO2 removed from the atmosphere ) .
Greater wildfire activity releases more CO2 , while major volcanic eruptions @ @ @ @ @ @ @ from more diffuse sunlight and extra removal of CO2 from the air .
The most dramatic variations are seasonal , as the land-dominated Northern Hemisphere experiences an annual cycle of vegetation growth ( CO2 removal ) and decay ( CO2 release ) .
The increase in atmospheric CO2 observed since the 1950s is most likely dominated by anthropogenic CO2 emissions , which are twice as large as that needed to explain the observed rise .
As I have shown before , a simple CO2 budget model driven by ( 1 ) estimates of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 2 ) El Nino and La Nina activity , and ( 3 ) a CO2 removal rate that is proportional to how much “ extra ” CO2 is in the atmosphere compared to a “ preferred baseline ” CO2 level , yields an excellent fit to yearly CO2 observations at Mauna Loa , Hawaii .
But those are yearly measurements , and we are now interested in whether the recent global economic slowdown is showing up in the monthly Mauna Loa CO2 data .
If we remove the large seasonal variations ( driven @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Northern Hemisphere vegetation ) , we see no evidence of the economic slowdown through April , 2020 .
Fig .
2 .
Monthly CO2 data since 2015 from Mauna Loa , HI after the average seasonal cycle is statistically removed .
As can be seen in Fig .
2 , there are some pretty large month-to-month jumps and dips around the long-term increase ( represented by the dotted line ) .
These are probably natural variations due to fluctuations in the average seasonal variations in vegetation growth and decay , wildfire activity , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ( which are imperfectly removed in the solid blue line in Fig .
2 ) .
Variations in economic activity might also be involved in these fluctuations .
The point is that given the large month-to-month variations in natural CO2 sources and sinks seen in Fig .
2 , it would be difficult to see a downturn in the anthropogenic source of CO2 unless it was very large ( say , over 50 % ) and prolonged ( say over a year or longer ) .
Instead , the U.S. Energy Information Administration @ @ @ @ @ @ @ economic slowdown this year due to the spread of the novel coronavirus will amount to only about an 11 % reduction in global CO2 emissions .
This is simply too small of a decrease in CO2 emissions to show up against a background of considerable monthly and yearly natural variability in the atmospheric CO2 budget .
That relatively small 11 % reduction also illustrates how dependent humanity is on energy , since the economic disruption is leading to U.S. unemployment rates not seen since the Great Depression of the 1930s .
Everything that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ affordable energy , and even the current economic downturn is not enough to substantially reduce global CO2 emissions .
ADDENDUM : How much of a decrease in CO2 emissions would be required to stop the atmospheric rise in CO2 ?
An interesting aspect of the observed rise of atmospheric CO2 is that it indicates the greater the CO2 concentration , the faster the “ extra ” CO2 is removed by biological activity .
The observed annual rate of removal is 2.3 % of the excess above a baseline of 295 ppm .
The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ faster the rate of removal .
Because of this rapid rate of removal , the anthropogenic CO2 emissions do not have to go to zero to stop the observed rise in atmospheric CO2 .
Using my simple model ( blue line in Fig .
1 , above ) , I find that a 43 % reduction in anthropogenic CO2 emissions in 2020 would — in the absence of natural fluctuations in the carbon cycle — lead to a halt in the observed rise of atmospheric CO2 in 2020 over 2019 levels .
This @ @ @ @ @ @ @ EIA estimate of an 11 % reduction in CO2 emissions for the year 2020 .


climatedepot--2020-05-15--The Fatal Attraction Of A Post-Covid Green Deal

“ Government will be tempted to use green Net Zero spending to revitalize the UK economy in the wake of Covid-19 because the gross effects are so large .
But in the medium term , it will actually make matters much , much worse because of the negative effect of using inferior , low-productivity energy sources in bulk .
The only way to ensure that economies return to long-term health is to move back to low-cost energy .
“ In a short paper published today by the Global Warming Policy Foundation ( GWPF ) Dr John Constable , the GWPF @ @ @ @ @ @ @ big economic risks of using ‘ climate-related ’ stimulus spending as governments around the world are attempting to restart the global economy as it emerges from lockdown .
The paper is based on comments in a webinar on ‘ The Net Zero Threat to Economic Recovery ’ which took place yesterday ( 14 May ) and is available here : Dr Constable notes that the large costs and low productivity of renewable energy makes them paradoxically attractive to any government trying to generate the short-run impression that it is doing something to restart @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , contrary to claims by the green energy industry , the costs of renewable energy remain extremely high relative to the alternatives , and that this is not surprising since the underlying thermodynamics of renewables are unfavourable .
“ The historical emergence of economic growth in the 19th century and its continuation is dependent on the use of superior fuels – fossil fuels and nuclear .
It would be a grave error to compel the world ’ s economies to reject cheap fuels in the present hour of need , ” Dr Constable @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to use green Net Zero spending to revitalise the UK economy in the wake of Covid-19 because the gross effects are so large .
But in the medium term it will actually make matters much , much worse because of the negative effect of using inferior , low-productivity energy sources in bulk .
The only way to ensure that economies return to long-term health is to move back to low-cost energy .
“


climatedepot--2020-05-15--Dems Shouldn’t Cheer For The Energy Industry’s Demise

Petroleum and natural gas industries that provide about 85 % of America ’ s energy ( with wind and solar constituting barely over 3 % ) is under siege by adversaries — both foreign and domestic .
The first major assault was launched by a no-winner dispute between Russia and Saudi Arabia that flooded the global market with underpriced petroleum that overflowed U.S. storage capacities .
A double-whammy occurred at a time when a COVID-19 pandemic eviscerated energy demand , driving Exxon ’ s stock value below that of Netflix .
If all that wasn ’ t bad enough , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ front are attempting to execute a final coupe de grace , seizing upon a the crisis as a “ kick ’ em while they are down ” opportunity that is too valuable to waste .
Until we somehow learn how to power naval ships by windmills and sails , fly aircraft with solar panel-powered propellers , or power everything else ranging from industrial plants to cellphones and light bulbs on cloudy , windless days — we ’ ve got a very serious problem ahead .
On the national security front alone , briefly @ @ @ @ @ @ @ lessons from the past .
Recall a time when Jimmy Carter — no raging imperialist — proclaimed by presidential decree that the U.S. would use military force , if necessary , to defend America ’ s vital national interests in the Persian Gulf .
This was prior to a fracking revolution when decades of wars , terrorist attacks , and the rise of global jihadist violence kept our country tied by dependence to the region .
Remember times when the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries ( OPEC ) collaborated to keep oil prices @ @ @ @ @ @ @ soaring energy costs to drag down global economies .
The consequences slowed America ’ s growth , placing special pressures on American wages and living standards of blue-collar workers , lower-middle class families , and all others who depended upon affordable fuel and electricity .
Thanks greatly to the hydraulic fracking oil shale revolution , America is now a net petroleum and gas exporter , no longer subject to the mercy of OPEC , Saudi Arabia , Russia , Iran , or never-ending Middle East conflicts .
This independence not only ensures secure @ @ @ @ @ @ @ provides negotiating leverage to secure peacetime benefits .
Coronavirus impacts on energy demand in combination with a cheap oil supply glut have taken a particularly devastating toll on American shale producers , many of whom may never recover .
If this occurs , many years may pass before the industry can regain its strength to return America to its very recent time of unparalleled economic and social prosperity .
Tragically , some vocal Democrats are advocating and cheering such prospective industry demise .
Driven by grossly exaggerated claims regarding prospective “ renewable energy @ @ @ @ @ @ @ climate and environmental benefits , their determined efforts are unrelenting .
Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez , D-N.Y. , cheered a drop in oil prices below zero as a positive development to advance the Green New Deal .
She tweeted : “ You absolutely love to see it .
Fossil fuels are in long-term structural decline .
This along w/ low interest rates means it ’ s the right time to create millions of jobs transitioning to renewable and clean energy.
” Presumptive Democratic Party presidential nominee Joe Biden has declared that if elected , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ fracking on public lands .
Biden has also been citing “ environmental justice ” issues purporting to link fossil fuel “ PM 2.5 ” particulate emissions to increased coronavirus death statistics disproportionately affecting areas with predominate minority populations .
The claims were based upon what Wall Street Journal editors characterized as a “ sloppy study ” published by Harvard ’ s T.H Chan School of Public Health that correlated elevated PM 2.5 levels with higher incidences of death from respiratory lung diseases .
Among numerous variables not addressed were how death rates differ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ levels of PM 2.5 , or how pollution levels vary across neighborhoods in cities .
Canadian epidemiologists Paul Villeneuve at Carleton University and Mark Goldberg at McGill University weren ’ t impressed .
They told the Journal , “ When we looked closely at the research , we saw so many shortcoming that we were not convinced of the results.
” Also , PM 2.5 levels across the U.S. have fallen 40 % since 2000 , thanks in large part to transitions from coal to cleaner-burning natural gas .
Former Texas Governor and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Fox News host Tucker Carlson that America is “ on the verge of a massive collapse of an industry that we worked awfully hard , over the course of the last three or four years , to build up to the number one oil and gas producing country in the world , giving Americans some affordable energy resources.
” Perry added , “ If we woke up a year from now , and there were five big companies because all of these independents were gone out of business .
.
.
I would @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Americans really nervous.
” Let ’ s all wake up long before that frightful day of energy insecurity arrives .


climatedepot--2020-05-15--REPORT: The sun has entered a ‘lockdown’ period, which could cause freezing weather, famine

Our sun has gone into lockdown , which could cause freezing weather , earthquakes and famine , scientists say .
@ @ @ @ @ a period of “ solar minimum , ” meaning activity on its surface has fallen @ @ @ @ @ are about to enter the deepest period of sunshine “ recession ” ever recorded as @ @ @ @ @ Astronomer Dr. Tony Phillips said : “ Solar Minimum is underway and it ’ s @ @ @ @ @ Sunspot counts suggest it is one of the deepest of the past century .
The @ @ @ @ @ has become weak , allowing extra cosmic rays into the solar system.
” “ Excess @ @ @ @ @ hazard to astronauts and polar air travelers , affect the electro-chemistry of Earth ’ s @ @ @ @ @ trigger lightning.
” NASA scientists fear it could be a repeat of the Dalton Minimum @ @ @ @ @ and 1830 — leading to periods of brutal cold , crop loss , famine and @ @ @ @


climatedepot--2020-05-15--No Oil Bailout Is Worth the Green New Deal – ‘Stop trying to help us,’ the industry says

“ Oil is dead.
” So goes the wishful thinking of the Left in Canada .
And not just in Canada .
Canada ’ s oil industry , like others around the world , has taken a beating : Before the coronavirus epidemic , prices already were low and declining , with U.S. shale producers fracking the world into oil abundance , sending prices down from over $ 100 a barrel in 2014 to less than $ 30 a barrel just two years later .
The failure of the joint Saudi–Russian effort to cut production sent prices down even more @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , which cut demand off at the legs and sent oil prices all the way down to $ 0.00 and then briefly into negative territory as oil traders looked to escape paying storage costs for the unprofitable commodity .
In Alberta , the Canadian energy heartland , oil is the economic lifeblood .
But efforts led by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau of the Liberal Party to provide emergency assistance to the oil industry — just as his government is assisting many other industries — ran into resistance from the Left .
Bloc Québécois @ @ @ @ @ @ @ question-begging , insists that oil is “ condemned ” and that the government should not provide any assistance to firms “ that will not be self-sufficient in any time in the future.
” Elizabeth May of the Green Party put it bluntly : “ Oil is dead.
” She suggested funding a transition program for Alberta ’ s energy-sector workers and then letting the oil business die of not-quite-natural causes .
Unlike their Canadian colleagues , the leaders of the U.S. oil industry aren ’ t really looking for help .
They ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ — it was the stupendous output enabled by the shale revolution , not the epidemic , that brought down oil prices to begin with — and they learned to adjust .
The big oil companies have diversified operations , and they do not live or die by the daily price of crude .
“ Any effort by government will come with a very high price from the Democrats , ” says Thomas Pyle of the American Energy Alliance .
“ They ’ ll want to trade that for parts of the Green New @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for us.
” Pyle says that some producers , especially smaller firms , might benefit from the same sort of assistance offered to businesses in any other industry , but that protectionist measures such as tariffs and subsidies are help that ’ s not wanted .
Any help that is offered , he argues , should be general rather than industry-specific .
But the true believers of the Left have a very industry-specific view of the oil business — they hate it and wish to see it destroyed .
It is not only @ @ @ @ @ @ @ industry go under : The Obama administration took roughly the same view of coal , a perennial bogeyman for the Left .
Conservatives have pointed to the suffering and economic ruination of the coronavirus quarantine as a preview of the so-called Green New Deal , which is less a legislative proposal than a slop bucket into which almost any left-wing priority can be poured .
It may be necessary , conservatives say , for government simply to mandate that important economic activities come to a halt , but this is what it looks @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , insists that what is good for a virus crisis in the here and now is good for a climate crisis at some point in the future , and that with the right leadership — always that — the command-and-control policies adopted as emergency measures during the epidemic can be reconstituted as a worldwide decarbonization project .
“ Give us the power of the Trump administration , ” they say , “ and we ’ ll do better with it than Donald Trump did.
” Conservatives hear Rahm Emanuel whispering about never letting @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The progressives are absolutely certain about the mandate , as they tend to be , but remain a little fuzzy on the details even as the new emergency-powers rhetoric sweeps the Democratic Party from the top to the bottom .
Arn Menconi , a Democrat running for state office in Colorado , insists that the epidemic “ has proved we can afford the Green New Deal.
” The “ proof ” includes unemployment expected to peak above 20 percent and an unprecedented spike in federal debt , which might easily be taken for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is singing from the same hymnal as the Democratic Socialists of America , with the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee promising “ an FDR-size presidency , ” as New York magazine put it , and endorsing expensive proposals for “ immense green enterprises.
” Biden has hardly even snorted in the direction of accounting for the costs of all that , probably because his advisers have realized that he does not have to : This is to be a moral crusade , pure and simple , begun in a fog of terror and anxiety @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to miss .
Helen Mountford of the World Resources Institute told Bloomberg that the current crisis presents “ a great opportunity now to transition more quickly.
” The political strategy is to present the coronavirus epidemic and climate change as a continuity of crisis .
And so Mountford describes the possibility of getting the economy up and running again without imposing a new political discipline on it as “ coming out of one health crisis and trying to boost the economy by leading us into another health crisis in terms of air pollution @ @ @ @ @ @ @ kind of magical transference at work there : The Left ’ s climate-change story has been around for a long time , and , despite efforts to inflate global warming into the dispositive and final crisis of capitalism , the world has stubbornly declined to treat it as an existential threat and adopt the hysteria and obedience that the Left demands .
This is true not only of the purported cowboy capitalists of the United States or right-wing populists .
It is Justin Trudeau who is working to save Canada ’ s oil @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of Clayton Williams .
“ If we are to move forward in transforming our economy towards lower emissions and clean processes , workers and innovators in Alberta and across the country in the energy sector are going to be an essential part of that transition , ” Trudeau tells Global News .
Beating back Green New Deal shenanigans and affirming the role of the oil-and-gas industry ought to be a political dunk for the Trump-era Republican Party .
Setting aside the complicating fact that U.S. energy independence is really North American energy independence @ @ @ @ @ @ @ two national suppliers of petroleum , which the United States continues to import because many of our refineries still are optimized for relatively high-sulfur imported oil rather than the “ light sweet ” stuff from Texas — this is an opportunity so simple and clear that even Republican candidates for public office should not be able to get it entirely wrong .
It pits a successful real-world industry creating and sustaining hundreds of thousands of jobs — many of them in swing states such as Ohio and Pennsylvania — with real-world names and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ project of the Davos set , one that has achieved quasi-religious status among affluent elites but hardly registers at all in the polls : In the January Gallup survey of top issues informing voters ’ choices in the 2020 election , climate change was second from last , ahead only of gay rights and far behind such concerns as the budget deficit , taxes , and immigration .
The question of energy vs. the Green New Deal is a question of real things you can see vs. possible things someone might imagine , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ feeling of self-righteousness , people you know vs. people you don ’ t .
“ We think these decisions should be made on the basis of financial accounting , not ideological , ” says Frank Macchiarola of the American Petroleum Institute .
The oil industry has generally supported policies such as the CARES Act and efforts to inject liquidity into the financial markets , but has resisted industry-specific measures as being likely to distort markets and impede long-term recovery .
“ We ’ re not advocating additional policy measures , or any economic @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the oil and gas industry , ” Macchiarola says .
“ We believe this is a challenge across the economy.
” The current situation is painful , but the U.S. oil industry believes that in the long term the numbers are on its side : With a growing world population and a growing global middle class , energy consumption is expected to increase by as much as 20 percent in the next 20 years — and half of that energy will come from oil and gas .
That matters for the cost of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ also matters for the diplomatic , security , and trade position of the United States .
The day before yesterday , the big worry was our “ dependence on ” or “ addiction to ” despised “ foreign oil.
” Technological innovations have made the United States the biggest oil and gas producer around , and our short-term problem right now is that we have more oil than anybody wants and nowhere to put it .
The problem of depletion has become the problem of superabundance .
That ’ s a better problem @ @ @ @ @ @ @ end up doing something for its oil producers .
But the situation in Alberta is an excellent illustration of why you do not want major industries to be dependent upon the whims of politics .
Even after the long-term decline in prices from the shale boom , the shock of the Saudi–Russian price war , and the cratering demand from the coronavirus shutdown , the major oil producers in the United States are , for the most part , asking to be left alone , or for oil businesses to be treated like @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in that kind of resilience , which should be even more obvious in uncertain times such as these .
This article appears as “ ‘ Stop Trying To Help Us , ’ Says Oil Business ” in the June 1 , 2020 , print edition of National Review .


climatedepot--2020-05-16--Former UN climate chief Figueres urges development of a COVID ‘people’s vaccine’ as an opportunity ‘

Former UN climate chief Figueres urges development of a COVID ‘people’s vaccine’ as an opportunity ‘to exercise the muscle of international cooperation which is critical for climate change’

Reuters : Figueres , one of the signatories of the open letter for a “ people ’ s vaccine ” , said working together to find a solution to the pandemic was an opportunity “ to exercise the muscle of international cooperation which is critical for climate change ” .
... Should we Celebrate !
Global economic collapse amid lockdowns means we can meet UN Paris pact !
- Reuters : Global emissions of climate-changing gases are expected to drop 8 % this year , according to the International Energy Agency .
That is a touch more than the 7.6 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ year this decade to meet the Paris accord goal of holding global temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial times .
Global push urged for COVID-19 vaccine could help climate too ( Thomson Reuters Foundation ) – Excerpts : Around the world , countries and individuals are isolating themselves to try to stem the spread of COVID-19 .
But to find a solution to the crisis – particularly a vaccine – global cooperation will be crucial , say a growing number of leaders .
“ We will not be able to get @ @ @ @ @ @ @ boarding ourselves in , ” former U.N. climate chief Christiana Figueres told an online event this week .
Creating , distributing and administering an affordable , accessible vaccine will take a coordinated international effort – similar to that needed to tackle climate change , she said .
“ As long as there is one person carrying the virus , everyone is under threat , ” she warned .
On Thursday , about 140 public figures , including the leaders of three African nations and Pakistan , called on governments and their international partners @ @ @ @ @ @ @ vaccine is developed , it is produced rapidly at scale and made available for all people , in all countries , free of charge .
Figueres , one of the signatories of the open letter for a “ people ’ s vaccine ” , said working together to find a solution to the pandemic was an opportunity “ to exercise the muscle of international cooperation which is critical for climate change ” .
As trillions of dollars in stimulus spending begin pouring into national economies flattened by the coronavirus crisis – and as @ @ @ @ @ @ @ faces a rare opportunity to swiftly ramp up climate action , Figueres said .
About $ 20 trillion in global stimulus spending is likely to be deployed , the Costa Rican diplomat said – in the same decade scientists say is crucial to pushing rapid change to avoid the worst consequences of global warming .
Decisions about how that money is spent will likely determine whether the world succeeds – or fails – at stopping runaway climate change , said Chris Stark , chief executive of the UK Committee on Climate Change , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ we turn away conclusively now from fossil fuels and lock in a genuinely low-carbon future ?
Or do we repeat the mistakes of the last recession ?
” he asked in a separate online event on Thursday .
If money again goes to prop up fossil-fuel-based industries , “ the goals of the Paris Agreement are going to be very difficult ” to meet , he said .
Global emissions of climate-changing gases are expected to drop 8 % this year , according to the International Energy Agency .
That is a touch @ @ @ @ @ @ @ say is needed each year this decade to meet the Paris accord goal of holding global temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial times .
“ But the drop this year should not be a matter for celebration , ” Figueres noted .
“ We haven ’ t decarbonised the economy , we ’ ve only paralysed the economy .
As soon as we get the wheels going again , those emissions will go up.
” Sam Greene , a climate change researcher with the London-based International Institute for Environment and Development @ @ @ @ @ @ @ vulnerable people and systems are to unexpected threats could help drive appetite for change .
“ There ’ s an opportunity here not to talk about what we have to have less of ( to deal with climate change ) but how we can create a more just and resilient future , ” he said .


climatedepot--2020-05-16--Covid-19 Lockdown Modelling Accused Of ‘Most Devastating Coding Mistake in History’

1 ) Modelling That Led To Lockdown Was ‘ Totally Unreliable ’ And A ‘ Buggy Mess ’ , Say Experts The Daily Telegraph , 16 May 2020 The code , written by Professor Neil Ferguson and his team at Imperial College London , was impossible to read , scientists claim The Covid-19 modelling that sent Britain into lockdown , shutting the economy and leaving millions unemployed , has been slammed by a series of experts .
Professor Neil Ferguson ’ s computer coding was derided as “ totally unreliable ” by leading figures , who warned it was “ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ life on ” .
The model , credited with forcing the Government to make a U-turn and introduce a nationwide lockdown , is a “ buggy mess that looks more like a bowl of angel hair pasta than a finely tuned piece of programming ” , says David Richards , co-founder of British data technology company WANdisco .
“ In our commercial reality , we would fire anyone for developing code like this and any business that relied on it to produce software for sale would likely go bust.
” The comments are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the UK was right to send the public into lockdown , with conflicting scientific models having suggested people may have already acquired substantial herd immunity and that Covid-19 may have hit Britain earlier than first thought .
Scientists have also been split on what the fatality rate of Covid-19 is , which has resulted in vastly different models .
Up until now , though , significant weight has been attached to Imperial ’ s model , which placed the fatality rate higher than others and predicted that 510,000 people in the UK could @ @ @ @ @ @ @ said to have prompted a dramatic change in policy from the Government , causing businesses , schools and restaurants to be shuttered immediately in March .
The Bank of England has predicted that the economy could take a year to return to normal , after facing its worst recession for more than three centuries .
The Imperial model works by using code to simulate transport links , population size , social networks and healthcare provisions to predict how coronavirus would spread .
However , questions have since emerged over whether the model is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ behind it , which in its original form was “ thousands of lines ” developed over more than 13 years .
In its initial form , developers claimed the code had been unreadable , with some parts looking “ like they were machine translated from Fortran ” , an old coding language , according to John Carmack , an American developer , who helped clean up the code before it was published online .
Yet , the problems appear to go much deeper than messy coding .
Many have claimed that it is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ from the same data , using the same code .
Scientists from the University of Edinburgh reported such an issue , saying they got different results when they used different machines , and even in some cases , when they used the same machines .
“ There appears to be a bug in either the creation or re-use of the network file .
If we attempt two completely identical runs , only varying in that the second should use the network file produced by the first , the results are quite different , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Github file .
After a discussion with one of the Github developers , a fix was later provided .
This is said to be one of a number of bugs discovered within the system .
The Github developers explained this by saying that the model is “ stochastic ” , and that “ multiple runs with different seeds should be undertaken to see average behaviour ” .
However , it has prompted questions from specialists , who say “ models must be capable of passing the basic scientific test of producing the same @ @ @ @ @ @ @ parameters…otherwise , there is simply no way of knowing whether they will be reliable.
” It comes amid a wider debate over whether the Government should have relied more heavily on numerous models before making policy decisions .
Writing for telegraph.co.uk , Sir Nigel Shadbolt , Principal at Jesus College , said that “ having a diverse variety of models , particularly those that enable policymakers to explore predictions under different assumptions , and with different interventions , is incredibly powerful ” .
Like the Imperial code , a rival model by Professor @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a so-called “ SIR approach ” in which the population is divided into those that are susceptible , infected and recorded .
However , while Gupta made the assumption that 0.1pc of people infected with coronavirus would die , Ferguson placed that figure at 0.9pc .
That led to a dramatic reversal in government policy from attempting to build “ herd immunity ” to a full-on lockdown .
Experts remain baffled as to why the government appeared to dismiss other models .
“ We ’ d be up in arms if weather forecasting @ @ @ @ @ @ @ results from a single model and missed taking that umbrella when it rained , ” says Michael Bonsall , Professor of Mathematical Biology at Oxford University .
Concerns , in particular , over Ferguson ’ s model have been raised , with Konstantin Boudnik , vice-president of architecture at WANdisco , saying his track record in modelling doesn ’ t inspire confidence .
In the early 2000s , Ferguson ’ s models incorrectly predicted up to 136,000 deaths from mad cow disease , 200 million from bird flu and 65,000 from swine flu @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 2000s are just yet another confirmation that their modeling approach was flawed to the core , ” says Dr Boudnik .
“ We don ’ t know for sure if the same model/code was used , but we clearly see their methodology wasn ’ t rigourous then and surely hasn ’ t improved now.
” A spokesperson for the Imperial College COVID19 Response Team said : “ The UK Government has never relied on a single disease model to inform decision-making .
As has been repeatedly stated , decision-making around lockdown was based @ @ @ @ @ @ @ evidence , including several modelling studies by different academic groups .
“ Multiple groups using different models concluded that the pandemic would overwhelm the NHS and cause unacceptably high mortality in the absence of extreme social distancing measures .
Within the Imperial research team we use several models of differing levels of complexity , all of which produce consistent results .
We are working with a number of legitimate academic groups and technology companies to develop , test and further document the simulation code referred to .
However , we reject the partisan @ @ @ @ @ @ @ commentators .
“ Epidemiology is not a branch of computer science and the conclusions around lockdown rely not on any mathematical model but on the scientific consensus that COVID-19 is a highly transmissible virus with an infection fatality ratio exceeding 0.5pc in the UK.
” 2 ) Neil Ferguson ’ s Computer Model Could Be The Most Devastating Modelling Mistake Of All Time The Daily Telegraph , 16 May 2020 The boss of a top software firm asks why the Government failed to get a second opinion before accepting Imperial College ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ expensive software mistakes , Mariner 1 was probably the most notorious .
The unmanned spacecraft was destroyed seconds after launch from Cape Canaveral in 1962 when it veered dangerously off-course due to a line of dodgy code .
But nobody died and the only hits were to NASA ’ s budget and pride .
Imperial College ’ s modelling of non-pharmaceutical interventions for Covid-19 which helped persuade the UK and other countries to bring in draconian lockdowns will supersede the failed Venus space probe could go down in history as the most devastating @ @ @ @ @ @ @ terms of economic costs and lives lost .
Since publication of Imperial ’ s microsimulation model , those of us with a professional and personal interest in software development have studied the code on which policymakers based their fateful decision to mothball our multi-trillion pound economy and plunge millions of people into poverty and hardship .
And we were profoundly disturbed at what we discovered .
The model appears to be totally unreliable and you wouldn ’ t stake your life on it .
First though , a few words on our credentials @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and chief executive of WANdisco , a global leader in Big Data software that is jointly headquartered in Silicon Valley and Sheffield .
My co-author is Dr Konstantin ‘ Cos ’ Boudnik , vice-president of architecture at WANdisco , author of 17 US patents in distributed computing and a veteran developer of the Apache Hadoop framework that allows computers to solve problems using vast amounts of data .
Imperial ’ s model appears to be based on a programming language called Fortran , which was old news 20 years ago and , guess @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Mariner 1 .
This outdated language contains inherent problems with its grammar and the way it assigns values , which can give way to multiple design flaws and numerical inaccuracies .
One file alone in the Imperial model contained 15,000 lines of code .
Try unravelling that tangled , buggy mess , which looks more like a bowl of angel hair pasta than a finely tuned piece of programming .
Industry best practice would have 500 separate files instead .
In our commercial reality , we would fire anyone for developing code like @ @ @ @ @ @ @ it to produce software for sale would likely go bust .
The approach ignores widely accepted computer science principles known as “ separation of concerns ” , which date back to the early 70s and are essential to the design and architecture of successful software systems .
The principles guard against what developers call CACE : Changing Anything Changes Everything .
Without this separation , it is impossible to carry out rigorous testing of individual parts to ensure full working order of the whole .
Testing allows for guarantees .
It is what @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a car factory .
Each and every component is tested for integrity in order to pass strict quality controls .
Only then is the car deemed safe to go on the road .
As a result , Imperial ’ s model is vulnerable to producing wildly different and conflicting outputs based on the same initial set of parameters .
Run it on different computers and you would likely get different results .
In other words , it is non-deterministic .
As such , it is fundamentally unreliable .
It screams the question as @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a second opinion before swallowing Imperial ’ s prescription .
Ultimately , this is a computer science problem and where are the computer scientists in the room ?
Our leaders did not have the grounding in computer science to challenge the ideas and so were susceptible to the academics .
I suspect the Government saw what was happening in Italy with its overwhelmed hospitals and panicked .
It chose a blunt instrument instead of a scalpel and now there is going to be a huge strain on society .
Defenders of the Imperial @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a global pandemic – is dynamic , then the solution should share the same stochastic , non-deterministic quality .
We disagree .
Models must be capable of passing the basic scientific test of producing the same results given the same initial set of parameters .
Otherwise , there is simply no way of knowing whether they will be reliable .
Indeed , many global industries successfully use deterministic models that factor in randomness .
No surgeon would put a pacemaker into a cardiac patient knowing it was based on an arguably unpredictable approach @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Why on earth would the Government place its trust in the same when the entire wellbeing of our nation is at stake ?
David Richards , founder and chief executive of WANdisco and Dr Konstantin Boudnik is the company ’ s vice-president of architecture 3 ) Charles Moore : Lockdown Is Showing Us The Misery That Net Zero Will Demand The Daily Telegraph , 16 May 2020 Eco-politics succeeds only with voters who feel guilty about being rich .
Covid-19 will put paid to that Roger Harrabin , the BBC ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ this on his employer ’ s website : “ I ’ ve just had a light bulb moment .
The feisty little wren chirping loudly in the matted ivy outside my back door is telling us something important about global climate change .
That ’ s because , intertwined with the melodious notes of a robin , I can actually hear its song clearly .
Normally , both birds are muffled by the insistent rumble of traffic , but the din has been all but extinguished in the peace of lockdown.
” Ah @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is , for us lucky ones , very real .
It is two months to the day since I last left my rural county .
Never before have I experienced so much quiet here , or brighter stars .
My long daily walks are almost mystically beautiful in their combination of light and air , the sound of nature and the silence of machines .
If I were Wordsworth , I would give thanks in verse .
Like Harrabin , I love hearing more wrens and robins and less traffic , and want @ @ @ @ @ @ @ involve , though ?
The light-bulb over Harrabin ’ s head – powered , of course , by green energy – is telling him that we must , in the new eco-buzz phrase , “ Build Back Better ” .
Governments , in their Covid recovery packages , should support only companies and projects “ which decouple economic growth from GHG [ greenhouse gas ] emissions ” .
Otherwise , we shall not achieve Net Zero .
I am quoting from a recent working paper of the Oxford Smith School of Enterprise and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ Will Covid-19 fiscal recovery accelerate or retard progress on climate change ?
” Its authors include the grandest of global greens such as Joseph Stiglitz and Lord Stern .
Their opening paragraph says : “ The Covid-19 crisis could mark a turning point in progress on climate change .
This year , global greenhouse gas ( GHG ) emissions will fall by more than in any other year on record .
The percentage declines likely in 2020 , however , would need to be repeated , year after year , to reach @ @ @ @ @ @ @ emissions will rebound once mobility restrictions are lifted and economies recover , unless governments intervene.
” The authors are in a bind .
They half-recognise that Covid-19 – not just medically , but socio-economically – is a disaster from which societies will wish to recover .
Yet it has brought about what they want .
Emissions have fallen unprecedentedly because of the extreme economic contraction it has produced .
Focus on their point that such a decline “ would need to be repeated , year after year ” to save the planet .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ , of course , the illness bit – to go on forever .
That effect means two related things .
The first is an enormous increase in government control .
To fight the disease , we have had to surrender large parts of our freedom to work , trade , associate , travel , worship , even vote ( local government elections being postponed ) and in many cases our right to a family life .
The second effect is greater poverty .
This is caused by the compulsory stoppage of so many @ @ @ @ @ @ @ cuts and job losses .
The poverty has been mitigated and delayed by government measures .
This may not directly damage Harrabin or me as , on full pay , we enjoy the intertwining of chirpy wrens and melodious robins ( though we shall surely notice it later in our taxes ) ; but it was shockingly unexpected and is becoming shockingly real .
It has also made billions anxious , lonely and gloomy .
Stiglitz , Stern and Co are right that “ emissions will rebound once mobility restrictions are lifted and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , but they do not seem to understand what they are saying .
Why will emissions rebound ?
Because people will travel more – especially in cars ( which are much safer than public transport against the virus ) .
And why will economies recover ?
Because growth is a function of activity , and activity is made possible by energy , and globally energy remains about 85 per cent dependent on fossil fuels .
As Lord Lilley , the former Cabinet minister , put it in a Global Warming Policy Forum webinar @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is caused “ by a suppression of supply , not by a failure of demand ” .
In other words , it is not what people wanted .
It has been imposed upon them .
In a democracy , people rarely vote for what they do not want .
After the Covid lockdown , voters will want to get back to work unimpeded and take the full benefits of the collapse of the oil price in falling costs for transport and heating .
They will not , you would think , be in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ electricity prices for renewables .
Even in goody-goody Germany , this thought is dawning on politicians .
This week , Angela Merkel had to give in to her party ’ s MPs who protested that Germany should not contribute its bit to the European “ Green Deal ” – agreed shortly before the virus struck – for still faster climate reductions by 2030 , unless all other EU member states do the same .
It is an insoluble problem for green politics that they succeed only among voters who feel guilty for being @ @ @ @ @ @ @ it hates for its very existence .
Most voters will now be angry about getting poorer , not guilty about being rich .
How can green policies survive , then ?
The clue is in that phrase “ unless government intervenes ” .
Only governments can suppress the economic spirits of their people .
And the only way they can do so is by exploiting the language of emergency .
That is why the Covid-19 experience appeals to the Net Zero mind-set .
Even before the disease came along , the phrase “ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ by activists and accepted by MPs .
It was invented to persuade government to coerce public opinion .
The remedy , you see , is “ led by the science ” , which is allegedly “ settled ” .
The message to the people is : lose your rights or lose the planet .
The Covid experience ought to have shown us the difference between a real emergency – a fell plague besetting the world – and a speculative one .
Even in the Covid crisis , there is fierce debate about whether @ @ @ @ @ @ @ should be infinitely stronger in relation to Net Zero .
Its entire edifice is based on models – we keep seeing how models can mislead – which make worst-case assumptions about the distant future .
Problem , perhaps ; emergency , no .
Surely we should have some faith that our developing technology can continue to grow cleaner and quieter .
Surely the resources of civilisation can make it easier for Harrabin and me to hear wrens and robins without beggaring humanity in the process .
“ Our house is on fire !
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ It isn ’ t , but it has been locked down .
Once is enough .
4 ) Tilak Doshi : Coronavirus And Climate Change : A Tale Of Two Hysterias Forbes , 14 May 2020 Up to a few months ago , life was normal .
Well , sort of .
In that pre-coronavirus normalcy , the reigning narrative was that of mankind facing assured destruction if we did not amend our wasteful – read carbon-intensive — ways .
Short of a drastic curtailment in our use of fossil fuels , we @ @ @ @ @ @ @ distant future .
How distant depended on who one listened to .
At the radical end of the spectrum — US Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez , teenage icon Greta Thunberg and the Extinction Rebellion folk among others — gave us a decade or less before we would face the fury of the elements , be they fires , droughts , floods , and other horrors of biblical proportions .
The “ moderate ” position held by the mainstream climate change establishment — ranging from the key multilateral organizations such as the UN ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ majors such as Shell and leading environment and social governance ( “ ESG ” ) practitioners like Larry Fink , CEO of the world ’ s largest hedge fund BlackRock – held that we had to reach the “ net-zero ” rate of carbon emissions by 2050 lest the world climate “ tip over ” to Armageddon .
But then , something happened along the way .
Up popped a particularly contagious virus , first in its birthplace in Wuhan , China , and then spreading across the world .
In a mere @ @ @ @ @ @ @ began to wreak death and economic mayhem , the latter caused primarily by governments panicked into shutting down entire swathes of the economy to “ flatten the curve ” of infections to avoid health systems from being overwhelmed .
It did not take long after the onset of the global pandemic for people to observe the many parallels between the covid-19 pandemic and climate change .
An invisible novel virus of the SARS family now represents an existential threat to humanity .
As does CO2 , a colourless trace gas constituting 0.04 % @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the control knob of climate change .
Lockdowns are to the pandemic what decarbonization is to climate change .
Indeed , lockdowns and decarbonization share much in common , from tourism and international travel to shopping and having a good time .
It would seem that Greta Thunberg ’ s dreams have come true , and perhaps that is why CNN announced on Wednesday that it is featuring her on a coronavirus town-hall panel alongside health experts .
In response to both threats , governments and their policy experts habitually chant the “ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ everything from face masks and social distancing ( 1 or 2 meters , depending on the relevant jurisdiction ) to the duration of lockdowns , governments were “ led by the science ” .
California governor Gavin Newsom told protestors last month “ We are going to do the right thing , not politics , not protests , but by science ” .
In banning the sale of mulch and vegetable seeds and such-like as non-essential , Michigan governor Gretchen Whitmer proclaimed in a New York Times op-ed that “ each action has @ @ @ @ @ @ @ epidemiology counsel there is.
” But , beyond being a soundbite and means of obtaining political cover , ‘ following the science ’ is neither straightforward nor consensual .
The diversity of scientific views on covid-19 became quickly apparent in the dramatic flip-flop of the UK government .
In the early stages of the spread in infection , Boris Johnson spoke of “ herd immunity ” , protecting the vulnerable and common sense ( à la Sweden ’ s leading epidemiologist Professor Johan Giesecke ) and rejected banning mass gatherings or imposing social @ @ @ @ @ @ @ bombshell March 16th report by Professor Neil Ferguson of Imperial College , London , warned of 510,000 deaths in the country if the country did not immediately adopt a suppression strategy .
On March 23 , the UK government reversed course and imposed one of Europe ’ s strictest lockdowns .
For the US , the professor had predicted 2.2 million deaths absent similar government controls , and here too , Ferguson ’ s alarmism moved the federal government into lockdown mode .
Unlike climate change models that predict outcomes over a period @ @ @ @ @ @ @ only days and weeks for epidemiological model forecasts to be falsified by data .
Thus , by March 25th , Ferguson ’ s predicted half a million fatalities in the UK was adjusted downward to “ unlikely to exceed 20,000 ” , a reduction by a factor of 25 .
This drastic reduction was credited to the UK ’ s lockdown which , however , was imposed only 2 days previously , before any social distancing measures could possibly have had enough time to work .
For those engaged in the fraught debates @ @ @ @ @ @ @ decades , the use of alarmist models to guide policy has been a familiar point of contention .
Much as Ferguson ’ s model drove governments to impose Covid-19 lockdowns affecting nearly 3 billion people on the planet , Professor Michael Mann ’ s “ hockey stick ” modelwas used by the IPCC , mass media and politicians to push the man-made global warming ( now called climate change ) hysteria over the past two decades .
As politicians abdicate policy formulation to opaque expertise in highly specialized fields such as epidemiology or @ @ @ @ @ @ @ emerges as scientists generate ‘ significant ’ results which reinforce confirmation bias , affirm the “ scientific consensus ” and marginalize sceptics .
In a recent interview , Lord Sumption – a former Supreme Court Justice in the UK – had this to say in lambasting the country ’ s collective hysteria : “ Hysteria is infectious .
We are working ourselves up into a lather in which we exaggerate the threat and stop asking ourselves whether the cure may be worse than the disease.
” Rather than allocating resources and efforts towards @ @ @ @ @ @ @ allowing the rest of the population to carry on with their livelihoods with individuals taking responsibility for safe socializing , most governments have opted to experiment with top-down economy-crushing lockdowns .
And rather than mitigating real environmental threats such as the use of traditional biomass for cooking indoors that is a major cause of mortality in the developing world or the trade in wild animals , the climate change establishment advocates decarbonisation ( read de-industrialization ) to save us from extreme scenarios of global warming .
Taking the wheels off of entire economies @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is not the way to go .


climatedepot--2020-05-16--Epidemiologist Knut Wittkowski slams COVID lockdowns, social distancing, dismisses 2nd wave fears –

Epidemiologist Knut Wittkowski slams COVID lockdowns, social distancing, dismisses 2nd wave fears – Rips ‘science’ funded to support government policy

Knut Wittkowski : No , unless you have age-related severe comorbidities .
So if you are in a nursing home because you can not live by yourself anymore , then getting infected is dangerous .
We had the other extreme in Switzerland , which was hit pretty hard .
There was one child that died .
People believed that this child was born in 2011 .
In fact , it was born in 1911 , and that was the only child that died .
It was a mere coding error .
Somebody with the age 108 was coded as aged @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in China .
It is over in South Korea .
It is substantially down in most of Europe and down a bit everywhere , even in the UK .
The UK and Belarus are latecomers , so you do not see exactly what you are seeing in continental Europe .
But everywhere in Europe , the number of cases is substantially declining .
I hope the intervention did not have too much of an impact because it most likely made the situation worse .
The intervention was to ‘ flatten the curve ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the same number of cases but spread out over a longer period of time , because otherwise the hospitals would not have enough capacity .
Wittkowski : When the whole thing started , there was one reason given for the lockdown and that was to prevent hospitals from becoming overloaded .
There is no indication that hospitals could ever have become overloaded , irrespective of what we did .
So we could open up again , and forget the whole thing .
How long can you do that for ?
For three weeks @ @ @ @ @ @ @ months , it is not .
The flattening of the curve , the prolongation of the epidemic , makes it more difficult to protect the elderly , who are at risk .
More of the elderly people become infected , and we have more deaths .
Now , as we know , children and young adults do not end up in hospitals .
It is only those who are both elderly and have comorbidities that do .
Therefore you have to protect the elderly and the nursing homes .
The ideal approach would @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the nursing homes and keep the personnel and the elderly locked in for a certain amount of time , and pay the staff overtime to stay there for 24 hours per day .
spiked : What are the dangers of lockdown ?
Wittkowski : Firstly , we have the direct consequences : suicides , domestic violence and other social consequences leading to death .
And then we have people who are too scared to go to the hospitals for other problems like strokes or heart attacks .
So people stay away from hospitals @ @ @ @ @ @ @ then they die .
Wittkowski : Germany had 8,000 deaths in a population of 85million .
They had 20,000 to 30,000 hospitalisations .
In Germany , that is nothing .
It does not even show up as a blip in the hospital statistics .
In Britain , the highest hospital utilisation was about 60 per cent , if I am not mistaken .
In New York City , it was a bit higher .
The Javits Congress Center was turned into a field hospital with 3,000 beds .
It treated just 1,000 patients @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to New York by President Trump had 179 patients but it was sent back because it was not needed .
New York is the epicenter of the epidemic in the United States , and even here at the epicenter , hospital utilisation was only up a bit .
Nothing dramatic .
Nothing out of the ordinary .
That is what happens during the flu season .
People have the flu , and then there are more patients in the hospitals than there otherwise would be .
Wittkowski : All the studies that have @ @ @ @ @ @ @ have at least 25 per cent of the population who are immune .
That gives us a nice cushion .
If 25 per cent of the population are already immune , we are very quickly getting to the 50 per cent that we need to have what is called herd immunity .
We will actually get a bit higher than that .
So we have flattened what otherwise would have been a peak , and if we now let it run , even if the number of cases would increase a bit , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ it was , because we already have enough immune people in the population .
So it is not going to spread as fast as it could have spread in the beginning .
Wittkowski : This is an invention to justify a policy that politicians are afraid of reversing .
Wittkowski : Why ?
What is the justification for that ?
People need to ask the government for an explanation .
The government is restricting freedom .
You do not have to ask me for justification .
There is no justification .
It is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ it is doing .
Sorry , but that is how it is .
spiked : How did we get this so wrong ?
Wittkowski : Governments did not have an open discussion , including economists , biologists and epidemiologists , to hear different voices .
In Britain , it was the voice of one person – Neil Ferguson – who has a history of coming up with projections that are a bit odd .
The government did not convene a meeting with people who have different ideas , different projections , to discuss @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that , it could have seen where the fundamental flaw was in the so-called models used by Neil Ferguson .
His paper was published eventually , in medRxiv .
The assumption was that one per cent of all people who became infected would die .
There is no justification anywhere for that .
Let us say the epidemic runs with a basic reproduction rate of around two .
Eventually 80 per cent of the population will be immune , because they have been infected at some point in time .
Eighty per cent @ @ @ @ @ @ @ like 50million .
One per cent of them dying is 500,000 .
That is where Ferguson ’ s number came from .
But we knew from the very beginning that neither in Wuhan nor in South Korea did one per cent of all people infected die .
South Korea has 60million people .
It is about the same size as the UK .
How many deaths were in South Korea ?
Did they shut down ?
No .
The South Korean government was extremely proud to have resisted pressure to drop the very @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in South Korea was over by March , the number of cases was down by 13 March .
In Wuhan they also did not shut down the economy .
Wuhan had restricted travel out of the city .
They stopped train services and blocked the roads .
They did not restrict anything social within the city until very late .
We have seen , then , in Wuhan and South Korea , if you do not do anything , the epidemic is over in three weeks .
Knowing that the epidemic would be @ @ @ @ @ @ @ number of people dying would be minor , just like a normal flu , the governments started shutting down in mid-March .
Why ?
Because somebody pulled it out of his head that one per cent of all infected would die .
One could argue that maybe one per cent of all cases would die .
But one per cent of all people infected does not make any sense .
And we had that evidence by mid-March .
spiked : Just to clarify , cases are different from people infected ?
Wittkowski : @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are serious enough for them to go to a hospital or get treated .
Most people have no symptoms at all .
But waking up with a sore throat one day is not a case .
A case means that someone showed up in a hospital .
spiked : The UK government was also heavily influenced by the situation in Italy .
Why did that go so wrong ?
Wittkowski : What we saw in Italy was that the virus was hitting those who were both old and had comorbidities , so lots @ @ @ @ @ @ @ age of those who died in Italy was around 81 years .
It is not that children or working people were dying .
It was the elderly in nursing homes – not even the elderly living by themselves mostly .
We saw lots of deaths and that scared people .
But then , Italy did an illogical thing .
It closed schools so that the schoolchildren were isolated and did not get infected and did not become immune .
Instead , the virus spread almost exclusively among the old , causing more deaths @ @ @ @ @ @ @ And that is mind-boggling .
Very early on , we knew from China and we knew from South Korea that this is an epidemic that runs its course , and there was nothing special about it .
But when it hit Italy , we stopped thinking about it as an age-stratified problem , and instead lumped everyone all together .
The idea that if we did not shut down the schools the hospitals would have been overwhelmed does not make any sense .
I frankly still can not fully understand how our governments @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Governments say they are following the science .
Is that really true ?
Wittkowski : They have the scientists on their side that depend on government funding .
One scientist in Germany just got $ 500million from the government , because he always says what the government wants to hear .
Scientists are in a very strange situation .
They now depend on government funding , which is a trend that has developed over the past 40 years .
Before that , when you were a professor at a university , you had @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Now , the university gives you a desk and access to the library .
And then you have to ask for government money and write grant applications .
If you are known to criticise the government , what does that do to your chance of getting funded ?
It creates a huge conflict of interest .
The people who are speaking out in Germany and Switzerland are all independent of government money because they are retired .
spiked : Did the Swedish scientists get it right ?
Wittkowski : Sweden did the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ take a lot of heat for it .
Now compare Sweden and the UK .
The only difference is that Sweden did fine .
They did have a problem .
They had a relatively high number of deaths among the nursing homes.They decided to keep society open and they forgot to close nursing homes .
Remarkably , the politicians acknowledged that it was a mistake to extend that open concept to nursing homes .
The nursing homes should have been isolated to protect the elderly who are at high risk .
But I @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to even acknowledge that mistake .
The first death in the United States was in a nursing home in Seattle .
And that was by the end of February .
So everybody knew that we were expecting the same thing that we had seen in Italy – an epidemic that hits the elderly .
But until just this week in New York State , the government told the nursing homes that if they did not take in patients from hospitals , they would lose their funding .
So they would have to import @ @ @ @ @ @ @ third of all deaths in New York State were in nursing homes .
One could have prevented 20,000 deaths in the United States by just isolating the nursing homes .
After three or four weeks , they could have reopened and everybody would be happy .
That would have been a reasonable strategy .
But shutting down schools , driving the economy against the wall – there was no reason for it .
The only reason that this nonsense now goes on and on , and people are inventing things like this ‘ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to force us to change society and never live again , is that the politicians are afraid of admitting an error .
spiked : Is this easier to see in hindsight ?
Wittkowski : What I am talking about is not hindsight .
The epidemics in Wuhan and South Korea were over in mid-March .
In March , I submitted a paper to medRxiv , summarising all of that .
At least towards the end of March , the data was there , and everybody who wanted to learn from it could .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention , presented data at the coronavirus presidential briefing at the White House .
And there was one plot that he presented .
And I looked at it and asked why people were not jumping to their feet .
Why were people not understanding what they were looking at ?
The plot was the data from the ILINet .
For 15 years , hospitals have counted every person who shows up with an influenza-like illness – fever , coughing , whatever .
There were three @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The first was in late December – influenza B .
The next was in late January – an influenza A epidemic .
And then there was one that had a peak in hospital visits around 8 March – Covid-19 .
For the peak to happen on that day , those patients have to go through a seven-day incubation period and then have symptoms .
But they do not go to the hospital with the first symptoms .
If it gets worse over three days , only then do they go to a hospital @ @ @ @ @ @ @ April , the number of new infections was already down .
In time for Easter , our governments should have acknowledged they were overly cautious .
People would have accepted that .
Two weeks ’ shutdown would not have been the end of the world .
We would not have what we have now – 30million people unemployed in the United States , for example .
Companies do not go bankrupt over a two-week period .
Two months is a very different story .
If you have to pay rent for two months @ @ @ @ @ @ @ no income , you will go bankrupt .
We see unemployment , we see bankruptcies , we see a lot of money wasted for economic-rescue packages – trillions of dollars in the United States .
We see more deaths and illness than we would otherwise have had .
And it is going on and on and on , just because governments are afraid of admitting an error .
They are trying to find excuses .
They say they have to do things slowly , and that they have ‘ avoided 500,000 deaths ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ an absurd number that had no justification .
The person presenting it pretended it was based on a model .
It was not a model .
It was the number of one per cent of all people infected dying .
And nobody was questioning it .
And that is the basic problem .
spiked : People will say that the interventions in South Korea – like contact tracing – were more effective .
Wittkowski : How many orders of magnitude , take us from 500,000 to 256 , the number of deaths in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of effect you would have to put everybody in the UK into a negative pressure room .
It is totally unrealistic to even consider a reduction from 500,000 to 256 .


climatedepot--2020-05-16--Charles Moore: Lockdown Is Showing Us The Misery That Net Zero Will Demand

Eco-politics succeeds only with voters who feel guilty about being rich .
Covid-19 will put paid to that Roger Harrabin , the BBC ’ s evangelically green environment analyst , recently wrote this on his employer ’ s website : “ I ’ ve just had a light bulb moment .
The feisty little wren chirping loudly in the matted ivy outside my back door is telling us something important about global climate change .
That ’ s because , intertwined with the melodious notes of a robin , I can actually hear its song clearly .
Normally , both @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of traffic , but the din has been all but extinguished in the peace of lockdown.
” Ah , the peace of lockdown .
It is , for us lucky ones , very real .
It is two months to the day since I last left my rural county .
Never before have I experienced so much quiet here , or brighter stars .
My long daily walks are almost mystically beautiful in their combination of light and air , the sound of nature and the silence of machines .
If I were @ @ @ @ @ @ @ verse .
Like Harrabin , I love hearing more wrens and robins and less traffic , and want it to continue .
What might that involve , though ?
The light-bulb over Harrabin ’ s head – powered , of course , by green energy – is telling him that we must , in the new eco-buzz phrase , “ Build Back Better ” .
Governments , in their Covid recovery packages , should support only companies and projects “ which decouple economic growth from GHG [ greenhouse gas ] emissions ” .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ Zero .
I am quoting from a recent working paper of the Oxford Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment with the snappy title , “ Will Covid-19 fiscal recovery accelerate or retard progress on climate change ?
” Its authors include the grandest of global greens such as Joseph Stiglitz and Lord Stern .
Their opening paragraph says : “ The Covid-19 crisis could mark a turning point in progress on climate change .
This year , global greenhouse gas ( GHG ) emissions will fall by more than in any other @ @ @ @ @ @ @ likely in 2020 , however , would need to be repeated , year after year , to reach net-zero emissions by 2050 .
Instead , emissions will rebound once mobility restrictions are lifted and economies recover , unless governments intervene.
” The authors are in a bind .
They half-recognise that Covid-19 – not just medically , but socio-economically – is a disaster from which societies will wish to recover .
Yet it has brought about what they want .
Emissions have fallen unprecedentedly because of the extreme economic contraction it has produced @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a decline “ would need to be repeated , year after year ” to save the planet .
They want the Covid effect – without , of course , the illness bit – to go on forever .
That effect means two related things .
The first is an enormous increase in government control .
To fight the disease , we have had to surrender large parts of our freedom to work , trade , associate , travel , worship , even vote ( local government elections being postponed ) and in many @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
The second effect is greater poverty .
This is caused by the compulsory stoppage of so many businesses , with consequent insolvencies , wage cuts and job losses .
The poverty has been mitigated and delayed by government measures .
This may not directly damage Harrabin or me as , on full pay , we enjoy the intertwining of chirpy wrens and melodious robins ( though we shall surely notice it later in our taxes ) ; but it was shockingly unexpected and is becoming shockingly real .
It has also made @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Stiglitz , Stern and Co are right that “ emissions will rebound once mobility restrictions are lifted and economies recover , unless governments intervene ” , but they do not seem to understand what they are saying .
Why will emissions rebound ?
Because people will travel more – especially in cars ( which are much safer than public transport against the virus ) .
And why will economies recover ?
Because growth is a function of activity , and activity is made possible by energy , and globally energy remains about 85 @ @ @ @ @ @ @