climatedepot--2020-07-09--BBC Worry That 1.5C Target Might Be Breached – ‘When they talk of 1.5C warming, they don’t mean from

BBC Worry That 1.5C Target Might Be Breached – ‘When they talk of 1.5C warming, they don’t mean from now, but from the 1850s’

The World Meteorological Organisation says there ’ s a growing chance that global temperatures will break the 1.5C threshold over the next five years , compared to pre-industrial levels .
It says there ’ s a 20 % possibility the critical mark will be broken in any one year before 2024 .
But the assessment says there ’ s a 70 % chance it will be broken in one or more months in those five years .
Scientists say that keeping below 1.5C will avoid the worst climate impacts .
The target was agreed by world leaders in the 2015 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to pursue efforts to try to keep the world from warming by more than 1.5C this century .
This new assessment , carried out by the UK ’ s Met Office for the World Meteorological Organisation ( WMO ) , says there ’ s a growing chance that this level will be breached .
Researchers say that the Earth ’ s average annual temperature is already more than 1C higher than it was in the 1850s – and will probably stay around this level over the next five years .
The rest of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ drivel from Matt McGrath , including the absurd claim that there will be more storms over western Europe thanks to rising sea levels .
What on earth do rising sea levels have to do with storms ?
I still can not understand the obsession with pre-industrial temperatures .
For whatever reason the world has warmed up a bit since the Little Ice Age , and is a thoroughly better place to live as a result .
As McGrath notes , the world appears to be about a degree warmer than back then .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ , they don ’ t mean from now , but from the 1850s : So they really mean half a degree of warming from current temperatures .
Yet global temperatures can fluctuate by about half a degree anyway from year to year , and the El Nino year of 2016 was already pushing the 1.5C mark .
Why then should anybody be scared by the prospect of similar years in future ?
Of course , the real reason for the 1.5C marker is that it sounds much scarier than 0.5C .
Unfortunately for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and governments , having staked their reputations on the 1.5C mark , now find themselves in the position where it could come and go without anybody actually noticing .
This would really undermine their apocalyptic threats .
This no doubt is one reason why Matt McGrath has included this chart .
( It also plays a video on the BBC page .
It ends with weatherman , Matt Taylor , telling us we must curb our emissions .
I ’ m not quite sure when it became the job of a weatherman to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ lives ! )
: He no doubt hopes to scare people about increasing heatwaves , though I ’ m not sure why they would worry about 19 hot days in a decade ?
But what about the figures ?
Do they reflect what has actually been happening ?
A glimpse at the average maximum temperatures in summer suggests that summers are not getting hotter , as the BBC chart implies .
Certainly not since 1976 : The BBC ’ s chart is actually pretty meaningless and misleading , as it is based on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ affected by UHI .
As more and more sites get added to the Met Office monitoring network , the more likely it becomes that one station will record a 30C day .
And , of course , some parts of the country are naturally warmer than others , so you can not compare a temperature at Heathrow with one in Sheffield .
There is only one way to monitor trends , and that is to use a consistent database of daily temperatures .
The only one we have , other than individual stations @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
When we analyse daily temperatures above 28C , we find : Decades run from 1880 to 1889 , etc .
I have chosen a 28C threshold , as CET tends to be a bit lower than the temperatures in the southeast , where most of the 30C days occur .
But we can also do the same exercise with 30C days : Neither chart shows any evidence that hot days are becoming more frequent , as the BBC purport to claim .
Hot days in the most recent decade are less frequent @ @ @ @ @ @ @ They are also not distinguishable from the 1940s .
It is worthwhile noting , however , that the BBC chart begins in the cold 1960s .
It also , for no obvious reason , only considers June temperatures .
Maybe a chart beginning in 1900 , and using temperatures across the summer as a whole , might have yielded different conclusions !


climatedepot--2020-07-09--Settled science? In 2006 The ‘Science’ Of Pandemic Mitigation Was Nearly The Opposite Of What It Is

Settled science? In 2006 The ‘Science’ Of Pandemic Mitigation Was Nearly The Opposite Of What It Is In 2020

A 2006 peer-reviewed scientific paper ( ) on pandemic mitigation policy said the efficacy of 3-feet social distancing is unknown @ @ @ @ @ to prevent virus droplet inhalation , and closing schools , restaurants , stores…have seriously adverse @ @ @ @ @ refers to what policymakers should recommend if there is an influenza pandemic .
Keep in @ @ @ @ @ about 500,000 people a year worldwide and there have been some years when it has @ @ @ @ @ over a million people ( i.e.
, 1957- ’ 58 , 1968- ’ 69 ) @ @ @ @ @ pandemic killed 50 million out of 500 million infections worldwide .
At the time , @ @ @ @ @ world ’ s population .
And yet at no time have we ever responded to @ @ @ @ @ have with COVID-19 .

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climatedepot--2020-07-09--Former climate activist Michael Shellenberger: Why I Believe Climate Change Is Not the End of the Wo

Former climate activist Michael Shellenberger: Why I Believe Climate Change Is Not the End of the World

The following is excerpted , with permission , from Michael Shellenberger ’ s new book , Apocalypse Never : Why Environmental Alarmism Hurts Us All , ( HarperCollins 2020 ) , 432 pages .
If you scanned the websites of two of the world ’ s most-read newspapers on October 7th , 2018 , you might have feared the end of the world was near .
A headline in the New York Times said : “ Major Climate Report Describes a Strong Risk of Crisis as Early as 2040.
” Just below the bold headline was a photograph of a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s bones .
Said another headline in the Washington Post on the very same day : “ The World Has Just Over a Decade to Get Climate Change Under Control , U.N. Scientists Say.
” Those stories in the New York Times , the Washington Post , and other media outlets around the world were based on a special report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change ( IPCC ) , which is a United Nations body of 195 scientists and other members from around the globe responsible for assessing science related @ @ @ @ @ @ @ reports would follow in 2019 , both of which warned of similarly dire consequences : worsening natural disasters , sea-level rise , desertification , and land degradation .
Moderate warming of 1.5 degrees Celsius would cause “ long-lasting or irreversible ” harm , they said , and climate change might devastate food production and landscapes .
The New York Times reported that planetary warming threatens to worsen resource scarcity , and “ floods , drought , storms and other types of extreme weather threaten to disrupt , and over time shrink , the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ predicted simultaneous collapses of food systems on multiple continents at once .
“ The potential risk of multi-breadbasket failure is increasing , ” she told the New York Times .
“ All of these things are happening at the same time.
” An IPCC report on climate change and land in August 2019 , prepared by more than a hundred experts from 52 countries , warned that “ the window to address the threat is closing rapidly , ” and that “ soil is being lost between ten and one hundred times faster @ @ @ @ @ @ @ not be able to grow enough food to support the human population , scientists warned .
“ It ’ s difficult to see how we could accommodate eight billion people or maybe even half of that , ” an agronomist said .
“ We can adapt to this problem up to a point , ” said Princeton University ’ s Michael Oppenheimer , an IPCC contributor .
“ But that point is determined by how strongly we mitigate greenhouse-gas emissions.
” If emissions rise through 2050 , then sea level rise will likely @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , at which point “ the job will be too big… It will be an unmanageable problem.
” Too much warming could trigger a series of irreversible tipping points , experts said .
For example , sea-level rise could be slowing the circulation of water in the Atlantic Ocean , which could change surface temperatures .
Arctic permafrost covering an area nearly the size of Australia could thaw and release 1,400 gigatons of carbon into the atmosphere .
The glacier on the continent of Antarctica could collapse into the ocean .
If that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ feet .
Rising atmospheric carbon dioxide levels are changing the chemistry of oceans in ways that scientists warn could harm marine life and even cause mass extinctions .
A 2016 study published in Nature found that higher carbon dioxide levels were making coral reef fish species oblivious to predators .
Many blamed climate change for wildfires that ravaged California .
The death toll from fires skyrocketed from just one death from wildfires in 2013 to one hundred deaths in 2018 .
Of the 20 most destructive fires in California ’ s history , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , California ’ s fire season stretches two to three months longer than it was fifty years ago .
Climate change is increasing droughts and making trees vulnerable to disease and infestation .
“ The reason these wildfires have worsened is because of climate change , ” said Leonardo DiCaprio .
“ This is what climate change looks like , ” said Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez .
“ It ’ s the end of California as we know it , ” concluded a columnist for the New York Times .
In Australia , more @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , claiming the lives of 34 people , killing an estimated one billion animals , and damaging or completely destroying nearly three thousand homes .
David Wallace-Wells , author of The Uninhabitable Earth , warned that with a two-degree increase , “ the ice sheets will begin their collapse , 400 million more people will suffer from water scarcity , major cities in the equatorial band of the planet will become unlivable , and even in the northern latitudes heat waves will kill thousands each summer.
” “ What we ’ re playing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ can limit climate change to the point where we don ’ t wipe out civilizations , ” said environmental writer and climate activist Bill McKibben .
“ And at the moment we ’ re headed in a direction where that won ’ t happen.
” Said one IPCC contributor , “ In some parts of the world , national borders will become irrelevant… You can set up a wall to try to contain 10,000 and 20,000 , one million people , but not 10 million.
” “ Around the year 2030 , in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 10 hours , we will be in a position where we set off an irreversible chain reaction beyond human control that will most likely lead to the end of our civilisation as we know it , ” said student climate activist Greta Thunberg , in 2019 .
“ I don ’ t want you to be hopeful .
I want you to panic.
” In early 2019 , newly elected twenty-nine-year-old congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez sat down for an interview with a correspondent for the Atlantic .
AOC , as she is known , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Deal , one that would address poverty and social inequality in addition to climate change .
AOC pushed back against critics who claimed it would be too expensive .
“ The world is going to end in twelve years if we don ’ t address climate change , ” she said , “ and your biggest issue is how are we gon na pay for it ?
” The next day , a reporter for the news website Axios called several climate scientists to get their reactions to AOC ’ s claim that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 12 years .
“ All the time-limited frames are bullshit , ” said Gavin Schmidt , a NASA climate scientist .
“ Nothing special happens when the ‘ carbon budget ’ runs out or we pass whatever temperature target you care about , instead the costs of emissions steadily rise.
” Andrea Dutton , a paleoclimate researcher at the University of Wisconsin–Madison , said , “ For some reason , the media latched onto the 12 years ( 2030 ) , presumably because they thought that it helped to get across the message @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and hence how urgently we need action .
Unfortunately , this has led to a complete mischaracterization of what the report said.
” What the IPCC had actually written in its 2018 report and press release was that in order to have a good chance of limiting warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius from preindustrial times , carbon emissions needed to decline 45 percent by 2030 .
The IPCC did not say the world would end , nor that civilization would collapse , if temperatures rose above 1.5 degrees Celsius .
Scientists had a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ made by Extinction Rebellion .
Stanford University atmospheric scientist Ken Caldeira , one of the first scientists to raise the alarm about ocean acidification , stressed that “ while many species are threatened with extinction , climate change does not threaten human extinction.
” MIT climate scientist Kerry Emanuel told me , “ I don ’ t have much patience for the apocalypse criers .
I don ’ t think it ’ s helpful to describe it as an apocalypse.
” An AOC spokesperson told Axios , “ We can quibble about the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ or cataclysmic.
” But , he added , “ We ’ re seeing lots of [ climate change–related ] problems that are already impacting lives.
” But if that ’ s the case , the impact is dwarfed by the 92 percent decline in the decadal death toll from natural disasters since its peak in the 1920s .
In that decade , 5.4 million people died from natural disasters .
In the 2010s , just 0.4 million did .
Moreover , that decline occurred during a period when the global population nearly quadrupled @ @ @ @ @ @ @ poor societies have become far less vulnerable to extreme weather events in recent decades .
In 2019 , the journal Global Environmental Change published a major study that found death rates and economic damage dropped by 80 to 90 percent during the last four decades , from the 1980s to the present .
While global sea levels rose 7.5 inches ( 0.19 meters ) between 1901 and 2010 , the IPCC estimates sea levels will rise as much as 2.2 feet ( 0.66 meters ) by 2100 in its medium scenario , and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in its high-end scenario .
Even if these predictions prove to be significant underestimates , the slow pace of sea level rise will likely allow societies ample time for adaptation .
We have good examples of successful adaptation to sea level rise .
The Netherlands , for instance , became a wealthy nation despite having one-third of its landmass below sea level , including areas a full seven meters below sea level , as a result of the gradual sinking of its landscapes .
And today , our capability for modifying environments is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ experts today are already working with the government of Bangladesh to prepare for rising sea levels .
What about fires ?
Dr. Jon Keeley , a US Geological Survey scientist in California who has researched the topic for 40 years , told me , “ We ’ ve looked at the history of climate and fire throughout the whole state , and through much of the state , particularly the western half of the state , we don ’ t see any relationship between past climates and the amount of area burned in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Keeley and a team of scientists modeled 37 different regions across the United States and found that “ humans may not only influence fire regimes but their presence can actually override , or swamp out , the effects of climate.
” Keeley ’ s team found that the only statistically significant factors for the frequency and severity of fires on an annual basis were population and proximity to development .
As for the Amazon , the New York Timesreported , correctly , that “ [ the 2019 ] fires were not caused by @ @ @ @ @ @ @ scientists challenged the notion that rising carbon dioxide levels in the ocean were making coral reef fish species oblivious to predators .
The seven scientists who published their study in the journal Naturehad , three years earlier , raised questions about the marine biologist who had made such claims in the journal Science in 2016 .
After an investigation , James Cook University in Australia concluded that the biologist had fabricated her data .
When it comes to food production , the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations ( FAO ) @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , under a wide range of climate change scenarios .
Humans today produce enough food for ten billion people , a 25 percent surplus , and experts believe we will produce even more despite climate change .
Food production , the FAO finds , will depend more on access to tractors , irrigation , and fertilizer than on climate change , just as it did in the last century .
The FAO projects that even farmers in the poorest regions today , like sub-Saharan Africa , may see 40 percent crop yield increases @ @ @ @ @ @ @ fourth assessment report , the IPCC projected that by 2100 , the global economy would be three to six times larger than it is today , and that the costs of adapting to a high ( 4 degrees Celsius ) temperature rise would reduce gross domestic product ( GDP ) just 4.5 percent .
Does any of that really sound like the end of the world ?
Anyone interested in seeing the end of the world up close and in person could do little worse than to visit the Democratic Republic of the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ has a way of putting first-world prophecies of climate apocalypse into perspective .
I traveled there in December 2014 to study the impact of widespread wood fuel use on people and wildlife , particularly on the fabled mountain gorillas .
Within minutes of crossing from the neighboring country of Rwanda into the Congolese city of Goma , I was taken aback by the extreme poverty and chaos : children as young as two years old perched on the handlebars of motorcycles flying past us on roads pockmarked with giant potholes ; tin-roofed shanties @ @ @ @ @ @ @ into tiny buses with bars over the windows ; trash everywhere ; giant mounds of cooled lava on the sides of the road , reminders of the volcanic anger just beneath the Earth ’ s surface .
In the 1990s and again in the early 2000s , Congo was the epicenter of the Great African War , the deadliest conflict since World War II , which involved nine African countries and resulted in the deaths of three to five million people , mostly because of disease and starvation .
Another two million people @ @ @ @ @ @ @ asylum in neighboring countries .
Hundreds of thousands of people , women , and men , adults , and children , were raped , sometimes more than once , by different armed groups .
During our time in the Congo , armed militias roaming the countryside had been killing villagers , including children , with machetes .
Some blamed Al-Shabaab terrorists coming in from Uganda , but nobody took credit for the attacks .
The violence appeared unconnected to any military or strategic objective .
The national military , police , and United @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , were either unable or unwilling to do anything about the terrorist attacks .
“ Do not travel , ” the United States Department of State said , bluntly , of the Congo on its website .
“ Violent crime , such as armed robbery , armed home invasion , and assault , while rare compared to petty crime , is not uncommon , and local police lack the resources to respond effectively to serious crime .
Assailants may pose as police or security agents.
” One reason I felt safe traveling to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , Helen , was that the actor Ben Affleck had visited several times and even started a charity there to support economic development .
If the eastern Congo was safe enough for a Hollywood celebrity , I reasoned , it would be safe enough for Helen and me .
To make sure , I hired Affleck ’ s guide , translator , and “ fixer , ” Caleb Kabanda , a Congolese man with a reputation for keeping his clients safe .
We spoke on the telephone before I arrived .
I told @ @ @ @ @ @ @ between energy scarcity and conservation .
Referring to the North Kivu province capital of Goma , the sixth most populated city in the Congo , Caleb asked , “ Can you imagine a city of nearly two million people relying on wood for energy ?
It ’ s crazy !
” Ninety-eight percent of people in eastern Congo rely on wood and charcoal as their primary energy for cooking .
In the Congo as a whole , nine out of 10 of its nearly 92 million people do , while just one out @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
The entire country relies on just 1,500 megawatts of electricity , which is about as much as a city of one million requires in developed nations .
The main road Caleb and I used to travel from Goma to the communities around Virunga Park had recently been paved , but there was little else in the way of infrastructure .
Most roads were dirt roads .
When it rained , both the paved and unpaved roads and the surrounding homes were flooded because there was no flood control system .
I was @ @ @ @ @ @ @ granted in developed nations .
We practically forget that the gutters , canals , and culverts , which capture and divert water away from our homes , even exist .
Is climate change playing a role in Congo ’ s ongoing instability ?
If it is , it ’ s outweighed by other factors .
Climate change , noted a large team of researchers in 2019 , “ has affected organized armed conflict within countries .
However , other drivers , such as low socioeconomic development and low capabilities of the state , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ” There is only a barely functioning government in the Congo .
When it comes to security and development , people are mostly on their own .
Depending on the season , farmers suffer too much rain or not enough .
Recently , there has been flooding once every two or three years .
Floods regularly destroy homes and farms .
Researchers with the Peace Research Institute Oslo note , “ Demographic and environmental variables have a very moderate effect on the risk of civil conflict.
” The IPCC agrees .
“ There @ @ @ @ @ @ @ worldwide , but limited evidence that climate change or sea-level rise is the direct cause.
” Lack of infrastructure plus scarcity of clean water brings disease .
As a result , Congo suffers some of the highest rates of cholera , malaria , yellow fever , and other preventable diseases in the world .
“ Lower levels of GDP are the most important predictor of armed conflict , ” write the Oslo researchers , who add , “ Our results show that resource scarcity affects the risk of conflict less in low-income states @ @ @ @ @ @ @ determined a nation ’ s fate , then resource-scarce Japan would be poor and at war while the Congo would be rich and at peace .
Congo is astonishingly rich when it comes to its lands , minerals , forests , oil , and gas .
There are many reasons why the Congo is so dysfunctional .
It is massive—it is the second largest African nation in area , behind only Algeria—and difficult to govern as a single country .
It was colonized by the Belgians , who fled the country in the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , like an independent judiciary and a military .
Is it overpopulated ?
The population of Eastern Congo has doubled since the 1950s and 1960s .
But the main factor is technological : the same area could produce much more food and support many more people if there were roads , fertilizers , and tractors .
The Congo is a victim of geography , colonialism , and terrible post-colonial governments .
Its economy grew from $ 7.4 billion in 2001 to $ 38 billion in 2017 , but the annual per capita income @ @ @ @ @ @ @ lowest in the world , leading many to conclude that much of the money that should flow to the people is being stolen .
For the last 20 years , the Rwandan government has been taking minerals from its neighbor and exporting them as its own .
To protect and obscure its activities , Rwanda has financed and overseen the low-intensity conflict in Eastern Congo , according to experts .
There were free elections in 2006 and optimism around the new president , Joseph Kabila , but he proved as corrupt as past @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , he stayed in power until 2018 , when he installed a candidate who won just 19 percent of the vote as compared to the opposition candidate , who won 59 percent .
As such , Kabila and his allies in the legislature appear to be governing behind the scenes .
On BBC Two ’ s Newsnight , in October 2019 , the journalist Emma Barnett asked Extinction Rebellion ’ s sympathetic and empathic spokesperson , Sarah Lunnon , how her organization could justify disrupting life in London the way it had .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ happening is really very , very upsetting , ” said Lunnon , touching her heart , “ and it makes me feel really bad to know that I ’ m disrupting people ’ s lives .
And it makes me really cross and angry that the lack of action over 30 years has meant that the only way I can get the climate on the agenda is to take actions such as this ; if we don ’ t act and protest in this way nobody takes any notice.
” Barnett turned to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Myles Allen , a climate scientist and IPCC report author .
“ The name Extinction Rebellion is inherently pointing towards ‘ we ’ re going to be extinct , ’ ” said Barnett .
“ Roger Hallam , one of the three founders [ of Extinction Rebellion ] , said in August… ‘ Slaughter , death and starvation of six billion people this century.
’ There ’ s no science to back that up , is there ?
” Said Allen , “ There ’ s a lot of science that backs up @ @ @ @ @ @ @ we carry on on a path to— ” “ —but not six billion people .
There ’ s no science that calculates it to that level , is there ?
” asked Barnett .
“ There are a number of scientists who ’ ve said if we get to four degrees of warming , which is where we ’ re heading at the moment , they can not see how the earth can support not one billion people , a half a billion people , ” she said .
“ That ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ !
” Barnett appeared annoyed , and interrupted .
“ Sorry , ” she said , turning back to Myles .
“ So you ’ re going to stand by , scientifically , a projection that says within this century we ’ ll have the slaughter , death , and starvation of six billion people ?
It ’ s just good for us to know.
” “ No , ” he said .
“ Because what we can do as scientists is tell you about the risks we face .
The easy risks @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are the ones that I do , how the climate system reacts to rising greenhouse gases .
The harder risks are how people are going to respond to losing the weather they knew as kids… So I imagine what they ’ re talking about there is the risk of the human response to climate change as much as the risk of climate change itself.
” “ But I suppose the point is , ” pressed Barnett , “ if there ’ s no science that says that , do you understand why some @ @ @ @ @ @ @ also feel like you have fear-mongered ?
For instance , [ Extinction Rebellion co-founder ] Roger Hallam has also said our kids will be dead in 10 to 15 years.
” “ We are losing the weather we know !
” Lunnon interrupted .
“ All of our agriculture and our food is based on weather that has been around for the last 10,000 years !
If we don ’ t have predictable weather , we don ’ t have predictable food sources .
We run the risk of multiple losses of harvest @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
That ’ s no food !
” “ Roger Hallam did say , ” replied Barnett , “ our kids would be dead in 10 or 15 years.
” “ There ’ s a distinct possibility that we lose not only our food supplies but our energy supplies , ” said Lunnon .
“ In California , at the moment , millions of people do not have electricity.
” In late November 2019 , I interviewed Lunnon .
We talked for an hour , and we exchanged emails where she clarified her @ @ @ @ @ @ @ saying billions of people are going to die , ” Lunnon told me .
“ It ’ s not Sarah Lunnon saying billions of people are going to die .
The science is saying we ’ re headed to 4 degrees warming and people like Kevin Ander- son of Tyndall Center and Johan Rockström from the Potsdam Institute are saying that such a temperature rise is incompatible with civilized life .
Johan said he could not see how an Earth at 4 degrees ( Celsius ) warming could support a billion or even @ @ @ @ @ @ @ an article published in the Guardian in May 2019 , which quoted Rockström saying , “ It ’ s difficult to see how we could accommodate a billion people or even half of that ” at a four-degree temperature rise .
I pointed out that there is nothing in any of the IPCC reports that has ever suggested anything like what she is attributing to Anderson and Rockström .
And why should we rely on the speculations of two scientists over the IPCC ?
“ It ’ s not about choosing science , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s about looking at the risk we ’ re facing .
And the IPCC report lays out the different trajectories from where we are and some of them are very , very bleak.
” To get to the bottom of the “ billions will die ” claim , I interviewed Rockström by phone .
He said the Guardian reporter had misunderstood him .
What he had actually said , he told me , was this : “ It ’ s difficult to see how we could accommodate eight billion people or even half @ @ @ @ @ @ @ billion people.
” Rockström said he had not seen the misquote until I emailed him and that he had requested a correction , which the Guardianmade in late November 2019 .
Even so , Rockström was predicting four billion deaths .
“ I don ’ t see scientific evidence that a four degree Celsius planet can host eight billion people , ” he said .
“ This is , in my assessment , a scientifically justified statement , as we don ’ t have evidence that we can provide freshwater or feed or @ @ @ @ @ @ @ eight billion in a four degree world .
My expert judgment , furthermore , is that it may even be doubtful if we can host half of that , meaning four billion.
” But is there IPCC science showing that food production would actually decline ?
“ As far as I know they don ’ t say anything about the potential population that can be fed at different degrees of warming , ” he said .
Has anyone done a study of food production at four degrees ?
I asked .
“ That @ @ @ @ @ @ @ must admit I have not seen a study , ” said Rockström , who is an agronomist .
“ It seems like such an interesting and important question.
” In fact , scientists have done that study , and two of them were Rockström ’ s colleagues at the Potsdam Institute .
It found that food production could increase even at four to five degrees Celsius warming above preindustrial levels .
And , again , technical improvements , such as fertilizer , irrigation , and mechanization , mattered more than climate change .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ that climate change policies were more likely to hurt food production and worsen rural poverty than climate change itself .
The “ climate policies ” the authors refer to are ones that would make energy more expensive and result in more bioenergy use ( the burning of biofuels and biomass ) , which in turn would increase land scarcity and drive up food costs .
The IPCC comes to the same conclusion .
Similarly , the UN Food and Agriculture Organization concludes that food production will rise 30 percent by 2050 except if @ @ @ @ @ @ @ adopted , in which case it would rise 20 percent .
Technological change significantly outweighs climate change in every single one of FAO ’ s scenarios .
In 2006 , a 37-year-old political science professor from the University of Colorado in Boulder organized a workshop for 32 of the world ’ s leading experts to discuss whether human-caused climate change was making natural disasters worse , more frequent , or more costly .
The professor , Roger Pielke , Jr. , cohosted the workshop with a colleague , Peter Höppe , who at @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of Munich Reinsurance , which provides insurance to insurance companies and has a strong financial interest in knowing whether global warming will make natural disasters worse .
If there is a stereotype of an environmental sciences professor from Boulder , Colorado , Pielke fits it well .
He wears hiking boots and plaid shirts .
He is an avid hiker , skier , and soccer player .
He is liberal , secular , and a Democrat .
“ I have written a book calling for a carbon tax , ” Pielke says .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s proposed EPA carbon regulations , and I have just published another book strongly defending the scientific assessment of the IPCC with respect to disasters and climate change.
” The group met in Hohenkammer , Germany , outside of Munich .
Pielke wasn ’ t optimistic that the group would achieve consensus because the group included both environmental activists and climate skeptics .
“ But much to our surprise and delight , ” says Pielke , “ all 32 people at the workshop—experts from academia , the private sector , and advocacy @ @ @ @ @ @ @ disasters and climate change .
The experts agreed in their unanimous Hohenkammer Statement that climate change is real and humans are contributing to it significantly .
But they also agreed that more people and property in harm ’ s way explained the rising cost of natural disasters , not worsening disasters .
When teaching his students , Pielke illustrates this point with a picture of Miami Beach in 1926 and in 2006 .
In 1926 , Miami Beach had a single high-rise building vulnerable to hurricanes .
By 2006 , it had dozens @ @ @ @ @ @ @ their windows blown out and flooded .
Pielke shows the climbing , inflation-adjusted cost of hurricanes in the United States rising from near-zero in 1900 to more than $ 130 billion in 2005 , when Hurricane Katrina hit New Orleans .
Pielke then shows normalized hurricane losses for the same period .
Normalized means that Pielke and his coauthors adjusted the damage data to account for the massive development of America ’ s coastlines , like Miami ’ s , since 1900 .
Once this is done there is no trend of rising @ @ @ @ @ @ @ costs matches the historical record of US hurricane landfalls , which gave Pielke and his colleagues confidence in their results .
Their results show a few big spikes in hurricane losses , including one rising to an inflation-adjusted and development-normalized $ 200 billion for the year 1926 , when four hurricanes made landfall in the United States , exceeding the $ 145 billion of damage occurring in 2005 .
While Florida experienced eighteen major hurricanes between 1900 and 1959 , it experienced just eleven from 1960 to 2018 .
Is the United States @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ Scholars have done similar analyses of normalized tropical cyclone losses in Latin America , the Caribbean , Australia , China , and the Andhra Pradesh region in India , ” Pielke notes .
“ In each case they have found no trend in normalized losses.
” And it ’ s not just hurricanes .
“ There is scant evidence to indicate that hurricanes , floods , tornadoes or drought have become more frequent or intense in the US or globally , ” he wrote later .
“ In fact we are in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ comes to extreme weather.
” The IPCC says the same thing .
“ Long-term trends in economic disaster losses adjusted for wealth and population increases have not been attributed to climate change , ” notes a special IPCC report on extreme weather , “ but a role for climate change has not been excluded.
” Pielke stresses that climate change may be contributing to some extreme weather events .
“ For instance , ” he notes , “ some recent research is suggestive that regional warming in the western United States can be @ @ @ @ @ @ @ climate change so far has not resulted in increases in the frequency or intensity of many types of extreme weather .
The IPCC “ concluded that there ’ s little evidence of a spike in the frequency or intensity of floods , droughts , hurricanes and tornadoes , ” explains Pielke .
“ There have been more heatwaves and intense precipitation , but these phenomena are not significant drivers of disaster costs.
” What most determines how vulnerable various nations are to flooding depends centrally on whether they have modern water and flood @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of Berkeley , California , or not , like the Congo .
When a hurricane hits Florida , it might kill no one , but when that same storm hits Haiti , thousands can die instantly through drowning and subsequently in disease epidemics like cholera .
The difference is that Florida is in a wealthy nation with hardened buildings and roads , advanced weather forecasting , and emergency management .
Haiti , by contrast , is a poor nation that lacks modern infrastructure and systems .
“ Consider that since 1940 in the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 118 hurricanes that made landfall , ” Pielke wrote .
But when the “ Boxing Day Tsunami struck Southeast Asia in 2004 , more than 225,000 people died.
” Anyone who believes climate change could kill billions of people and cause civilizations to collapse might be surprised to discover that none of the IPCC reports contain a single apocalyptic scenario .
Nowhere does the IPCC describe developed nations like the United States becoming a “ climate hell ” resembling the Congo .
Our flood-control , electricity , and road systems will keep working @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of warming .
What about the claim IPCC contributor Michael Oppenheimer made that a 2-foot , 9-inch sea level rise would be “ an unmanageable problem ?
” To understand his reasoning , I interviewed him by phone .
“ There was a mistake in the article by the reporter , ” he told me .
“ He had 2 feet , 9 inches .
The actual number , which is based on the sea level rise amount in [ IPCC Representative Concentration Pathway ] 8.5 for its [ Special Report on the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ] report is 1.1 meters , which is 3 feet , 7 inches.
” I asked Oppenheimer why places like Bangladesh couldn ’ t do what the Netherlands did .
“ The Netherlands spent a lot of time not improving its dikes due to two world wars and a depression , ” Oppenheimer said , “ and didn ’ t start modernizing them until the disastrous 1953 flood.
” The 1953 flood killed more than 2,500 people and motivated the Netherlands to rebuild its dikes and canals .
“ Most of humanity will @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that luxury , ” said Oppenheimer .
“ So in most places , they will accommodate flooding by raising structures or floodable structures .
Or you retreat.
” In 2012 , said Oppenheimer , “ People moved out of New York after Hurricane Sandy .
I wouldn ’ t call that unmanageable .
Temporarily unmanageable .
Meaning we wouldn ’ t be able to maintain societal function around the world if sea-level rise approaches those close to four feet .
Bangladeshis might be leaving the coast and trying to get into India.
” @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the ones on Bangladesh ’ s low-lying coasts , move to cities every year , I pointed out .
Doesn ’ t the word “ unmanageable ” suggest a permanent societal breakdown ?
“ When you have people making decisions they are essentially compelled to make , ” he said , “ that ’ s what I ’ m referring to as ‘ an unmanageable situation.
’ The kind of situation that leads to economic disruption , disruption of livelihoods , disruption of your ability to control your destiny , and people dying @ @ @ @ @ @ @ manageable .
You recover from disasters .
But the people who died didn ’ t recover.
” In other words , the problems from sea level rise that Oppenheimer calls “ unmanageable ” are situations like the ones that already occur , from which societies recover , and to which they adapt .
The Congo ’ s underdevelopment is in part a consequence of having one of the most corrupt governments in the world .
Once , we were stopped by a police officer .
I was in the back of the car @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the driver .
As the police officer peered into the car , Caleb turned his head slightly toward the man and scowled .
The officer checked the driver ’ s papers and then waved us on .
“ What was that all about ?
” I asked .
“ He was trying to find something wrong so he could ask for a bribe , ” Caleb explained .
“ But I gave him my special stare.
” Caleb confessed that he , like many other Congolese , loved watching the American TV series @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a CIA agent who battles terrorists .
“ Everybody in Congo loves Jack Bauer !
” Caleb said , referring to the CIA agent played by the Canadian actor Kiefer Sutherland .
I asked Caleb if people in the Congo love Sutherland as much as they love Ben Affleck , who was not only more famous than Sutherland but also was trying to help the Congo .
Caleb paused for a moment to contemplate the question .
“ Not here !
” he said .
“ Jack Bauer is more famous in the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the Congo and gave a press conference demanding that all the armed groups give up in 24 hours , all the fighting would come to a halt immediately !
” Caleb laughed with delight at the thought of it .
We drove around the countryside and interviewed people at random .
Caleb used his charm to reassure local villagers who were understandably suspicious about a foreigner asking them questions about their lives .
Many people we interviewed were upset about baboons and elephants from nearby Virunga National Park , a protected area for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the widespread hunger and poverty , losing your crops to wild animals is devastating .
I was told that one woman was so upset about losing her crops to an elephant that she died of a heart attack the next day .
And I was told that a chimpanzee had recently killed a two-year-old boy .
One man asked me to request Virunga Park officials install electric fences to keep animals out of their fields .
Several people complained that when they approached park managers about the nuisance , they were told to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to the park , a request the villagers said was impossible and insulting .
A few weeks before I arrived , a group of young people organized a march to Virunga National Park headquarters to protest inaction on crop-raiding .
In response , the park hired some of the youths to shoo away baboons .
Near the entrance to Virunga National Park , Caleb and I interviewed people from a local community .
A crowd of about 20 or 20 people gathered around us , and many of them expressed outrage about the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ kill the baboons that are eating your crops ?
” I asked .
Many people in the crowd let out a collective groan and said no , that they would go to prison , even though the animal was on their land and outside the park boundary .
There was a young mother with an infant on her breast in the crowd .
I introduced myself and asked her name .
It was Mamy Bernadette Semutaga .
She went by Bernadette .
She was 25 years old .
Her baby girl ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Bernadette ’ s seventh child .
Bernadette told us that baboons had eaten her sweet potatoes the night before .
I asked her if she would take us to her plot of land so we could see for ourselves what had happened .
She agreed .
We talked in the car on the way there .
I asked Bernadette what her favorite memory was as a child .
“ When I was 14 years old I visited my cousins in Goma and they bought new clothes for me , ” she said .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ go back to my village , they paid for the ticket for me and gave me money to buy bread and cabbage to take home .
I returned home very happy.
” Much of the rest of Bernadette ’ s life has been difficult .
“ I got married when I was 15 years old , ” she said .
“ When I met my husband , he was an orphan .
He had nothing .
We ’ ve been always living with difficulties .
I have never lived in happiness.
” When @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , Bernadette pointed to holes in the ground where sweet potatoes had been .
I asked if I could take a photo .
She said that was fine .
In the photograph , she is frowning , but also looks proud .
At least she had a plot of land to call her own .
Once we drove her back to the village , Caleb gave her some money , as a small token of our thanks , and to make up for the sweet potatoes .
We should be concerned about the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , without question .
There is nothing automatic about adaptation .
And it ’ s true that Bernadette is more vulnerable to climate change than Helen and I are .
But she is also more vulnerable to the weather and natural disasters today .
Bernadette must farm to survive .
She must spend several hours a day chopping wood , hauling wood , building fires , fanning smoky fires , and cooking over them .
Wild animals eat her crops .
She and her family lack basic medical care and her children often @ @ @ @ @ @ @ armed militias roam the countryside robbing , raping , kidnapping , and murdering .
Understandably , then , climate change is not on her list of things to worry about .
As such , it ’ s misleading for environmental activists to invoke people like Bernadette , and the risks she faces from climate change , without acknowledging that economic development is overwhelmingly what will determine her standard of living , and the future of her children and grandchildren , not how much the climate changes .
What will determine whether or not @ @ @ @ @ @ @ whether the Congo builds a hydroelectric , irrigation , and rainwater system , not the specific change in precipitation patterns .
What will determine whether Bernadette ’ s home is secure or insecure is whether she has money to make it secure .
And the only way she ’ ll have money to make it secure is through economic growth and a higher income .
Economic development outweighs climate change in the rich world , too .
Consider the case of California , the fifth-largest economy in the world .
California suffers from @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , there are wind-driven fires on coastal shrubland , or chaparral , where most of the houses are built .
Think Malibu and Oakland .
Nineteen of the state ’ s 20 most deadly and costly fires have taken place in chaparral .
The second type is forest fires in places like the Sierra Nevada where there are far fewer people .
Mountain and coastal ecosystems have opposite problems .
There are too many fires in the shrublands and too few prescribed burns in the Sierras .
Keeley refers to the Sierra fires @ @ @ @ @ @ @ fires as “ wind-dominated.
” The only solution to fires in the shrubland is to prevent them and/or harden homes and buildings to them .
Before Europeans arrived in the United States , fires burned up woody biomass in forests every 10 to 20 years , preventing the accumulation of wood fuel , and fires burned the shrublands every 50 to 120 years .
But during the last 100 years , the United States Forest Service ( USFS ) and other agencies extinguished most fires , resulting in the accumulation of wood fuel @ @ @ @ @ @ @ finding that all ignition sources of fires had declined in California except for electric power lines .
“ Since the year 2000 there ’ ve been a half-million acres burned due to powerline-ignited fires , which is five times more than we saw in the previous 20 years , ” he said .
“ Some people would say , ‘ Well , that ’ s associated with climate change.
’ But there ’ s no relationship between climate and these big fire events .
What then is driving the increase in fires ?
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ of these [ shrubland ] fires are started by people , and you add six million people [ since 2000 ] , that ’ s a good explanation for why we ’ re getting more and more of these fires , ” said Keeley .
What about the Sierra ?
“ If you look at the period from 1910 to 1960 , ” said Keeley , “ precipitation is the climate parameter most tied to fires .
But since 1960 , precipitation has been replaced by temperature , so in the last fifty @ @ @ @ @ @ @ explain 50 percent of the variation from one year to the next .
So temperature is important.
” But isn ’ t that also the period when the wood fuel was allowed to accumulate , I asked , due to suppression of forest fires ?
“ Exactly , ” said Keeley .
“ Fuel is one of the confounding factors .
It ’ s the problem in some of the reports done by climatologists who understand climate but don ’ t necessarily understand the subtleties related to fires.
” Would we be having @ @ @ @ @ @ @ I asked , had we not allowed wood fuel to build up over the last century ?
“ That ’ s a very good question , ” said Keeley .
“ Maybe you wouldn ’ t. ” He said it was something he might look at .
“ We have some selected watersheds in the Sierra Nevadas where there have been regular fires .
Maybe the next paper we ’ ll pull out the watersheds that have not had fuel accumulation and look at the climate fire relationship and see if it changes.
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ Greater fire damage in Australia is , as in California , due in part to greater development in fire-prone areas , and in part to the accumulation of wood fuel .
One scientist estimates that there is ten times more wood fuel in Australia ’ s forests today that when Europeans arrived .
The main reason is that the government of Australia , as in California , refused to do controlled burns , for both environmental and human health reasons .
As such , the fires would have occurred even had Australia ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ media depicted the 2019–2020 fire season as the worst in Australia ’ s history but it wasn ’ t .
It ranked fifth in terms of area burned , with about half of the burned acreage as 2002 , the fourth-place year , and about a sixth of the burned acreage of the worst season in 1974–1975 .
The 2019–2020 fires ranked sixth in fatalities , about half as many as the fifth-place year , 1926 , and a fifth as many fatalities as the worst fire on record in 2009 .
While @ @ @ @ @ @ @ number of houses destroyed , they razed about 50 percent less than the worst year , the 1938–39 fire season .
The only metric by which this fire season appears to be the worst ever is in the number of non-home buildings damaged .
Climate alarmism , animus among environmental journalists toward the current Australian government , and smoke that was unusually visible to densely populated areas , appear to be the reasons for exaggerated media coverage .
The bottom line is that other human activities have a greater impact on the frequency @ @ @ @ @ @ @ emission of greenhouse gases .
And that ’ s great news , because it gives Australia , California , and Brazil far greater control over their future than the apocalyptic news media suggested .
In July 2019 , one of Lauren Jeffrey ’ s science teachers made an offhand comment about how climate change could be apocalyptic .
Jeffrey was 17 years old and attended high school in Milton Keynes , a city of 230,000 people about 50 miles north-west of London .
“ I did research on it and spent two months @ @ @ @ @ @ @ me .
“ I would hear young people around me talk about it and they were convinced that the world was going to end and they were going to die.
” Studies find that climate alarmism is contributing to rising anxiety and depression , particularly among children .
In 2017 , the American Psychological Association diagnosed rising eco-anxiety and called it “ a chronic fear of environmental doom.
” In September 2019 , British psychologists warned of the impact on children of apocalyptic discussions of climate change .
In 2020 , a large @ @ @ @ @ @ @ five British children was having nightmares about climate change .
“ There is no doubt in my mind that they are being emotionally impacted , ” one expert said .
“ I found a lot of blogs and videos talking about how we ’ re going extinct at various dates , 2030 , 2035 , from societal collapse , ” said Jeffrey .
“ That ’ s when I started to get quite worried .
I tried to forget it at first but it kept popping up in my mind .
“ One @ @ @ @ @ @ @ be a collapse of society in 2030 and ‘ near term human extinction ’ in 2050 , ” said Jeffrey .
“ She concluded that we ’ ve got 10 years left to live.
” Extinction Rebellion activists stoked those fears .
Extinction Rebellion activists gave frightening and apocalyptic talks to schoolchildren across Britain .
In one August talk , an Extinction Rebellion activist climbed atop a desk in the front of a classroom to give a terrifying talk to children , some of whom appear no older than 10 years old .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s alarmism .
The BBC ’ s Andrew Neil interviewed a visibly uncomfortable Extinction Rebellion spokesperson in her mid-30s named Zion Lights .
“ One of your founders , Roger Hallam , said in April , ‘ Our children are going to die in the next ten to 20 years , ’ ” Neil says to Lights in the video .
“ What ’ s the scientific basis for these claims ?
” “ These claims have been disputed , admittedly , ” Lights says .
“ There are some scientists who @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that they ’ re simply not true .
But the overall issue is that these deaths are going to happen.
” “ But most scientists don ’ t agree with this , ” says Neil .
“ I looked through [ the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change ’ s recent reports ] and see no reference to billions of people going to die , or children going to die in under 20 years… How would they die ?
” Responds Lights , “ Mass migration around the world is already taking place due @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in South Asia .
There are wildfires in Indonesia , the Amazon rainforest , also Siberia , the Arctic.
” “ These are really important problems , ” Neil says , “ and they can cause fatalities .
But they don ’ t cause billions of deaths .
They don ’ t mean that our young people will all be dead in 20 years.
” “ I ’ ve seen young girls on television , part of your demonstration… crying because they think they ’ re going to die in five or six @ @ @ @ @ @ @ don ’ t think they ’ ll ever see adulthood , ” says Neil .
“ And yet there ’ s no scientific basis for the claims that your organization is making.
” “ I ’ m not saying that because I ’ m alarming children , ” replies Lights .
“ They ’ re learning about the consequences.
” Happily , not all of Britain ’ s schoolchildren trusted Extinction Rebellion to honestly and accurately explain the consequences .
“ I did research and found there was a lot of misinformation on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on the doomsayer side of things , ” Lauren Jeffrey told me .
In October and November 2019 , she posted seven videos to YouTube and joined Twitter to promote them .
“ As important as your cause is , ” said Jeffrey in one of the videos , an open letter to Extinction Rebellion , “ your persistent exaggeration of the facts has the potential to do more harm than good to the scientific credibility of your cause as well as to the psychological well-being of my generation.
” In November and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ articles criticizing climate alarmism and covering material similar to what I ’ ve written above .
I did so in part because I wanted to give scientists and activists , including those whom I criticized , a chance to respond or correct any errors I might have made in my reporting before publishing this book .
Both articles were widely read , and I made sure the scientists and activists I mentioned saw my article .
Not a single person requested a correction .
Instead , I received many emails from scientists and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the science .
One of the main questions I received , including from a BBC reporter , was whether some alarmism was justified in order to achieve changes to policy .
The question implied that the news media aren ’ t already exaggerating .
But consider a June Associated Press article .
It was headlined , “ UN Predicts Disaster if Global Warming Not Checked.
” It was one of many apocalyptic articles that summer about climate change .
In the article , a “ senior UN environmental official ” claims that if @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 2030 , then rising sea levels could wipe “ entire nations… off the face of the Earth.
” Crop failures coupled with coastal flooding , he said , could provoke “ an exodus of ‘ eco-refugees , ’ ” whose movements could wreak political chaos the world over .
Unabated , the ice caps will melt away , the rainforests will burn , and the world will warm to unbearable temperatures .
Governments “ have a 10-year window of opportunity to solve the greenhouse effects before it goes beyond human control , ” @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Associated Press publish that apocalyptic warning from the United Nations in June 2019 ?
No , June 1989 .
And , the cataclysmic events the UN official predicted were for the year 2000 , not 2030 .
In early 2019 , Roger Pielke reviewed the apocalyptic climate tract , The Uninhabitable Earth , for the Financial Times .
In his review , Pielke described a filtering mechanism that results in journalists , like the one who wrote the book , getting the science so wrong .
“ The scientific community produces carefully caveated @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the unrealistically optimistic to the highly pessimistic , ” Pielke wrote .
By contrast , “ Media coverage tends to emphasize the most pessimistic scenarios and in the process somehow converts them from worst-case scenarios to our most likely futures.
” The author of The Uninhabitable Earth , like other activist journalists , simply exaggerated the exaggerations .
He “ assembled the best of this already selective science to paint a picture containing ‘ enough horror to induce a panic attack in even the most optimistic.
’ ” What about so-called tipping points @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and simultaneous loss of Greenland or West Antarctic ice sheets , the drying out of and die-back of the Amazon , and a change of the Atlantic Ocean circulation ?
The high level of uncertainty on each , and a complexity that is greater than the sum of its parts , make many tipping point scenarios unscientific .
That ’ s not to say that a catastrophic tipping point scenario is impossible , only that there is no scientific evidence that one would be more probable or catastrophic than other potentially catastrophic scenarios @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , or an unusually deadly influenza virus .
Consider the other threats humankind has recently been forced to cope with .
In July 2019 , NASA announced it had been caught by surprise when a “ city-killer ” asteroid passed by—just one-fifth of the distance between Earth and the Moon .
In December 2019 , a volcano unexpectedly erupted in New Zealand , killing 21 people .
And in early 2020 , governments around the world scrambled to cope with an unusually deadly flu-like virus that experts say may kill millions of people @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and prevent asteroids , super-volcanoes , and deadly flus ?
Perhaps , or perhaps not .
While nations take reasonable actions to detect and avoid such disasters they generally don ’ t take radical actions for the simple reason that doing so would make societies poorer and less capable of confronting all major challenges , including asteroids , super-volcanoes , and disease epidemics .
“ Richer countries are more resilient , ” climate scientist Emanuel said , “ so let ’ s focus on making people richer and more resilient.
” The risk @ @ @ @ @ @ @ planetary temperatures , and thus our goal should be to reduce emissions and keep temperatures as low as possible without undermining economic development .
Said Emanuel , “ We ’ ve got to come up with some kind of middle ground .
We shouldn ’ t be forced to choose between growth and lifting people out of poverty and doing something for the climate.
” The new good news is that carbon emissions have been declining in developed nations for more than a decade .
In Europe , emissions in 2018 were 23 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ U.S. , emissions fell 15 percent from 2005 to 2016 .
The U.S. and Britain have seen their carbon emissions from electricity , specifically , decline by an astonishing 27 percent in the U.S. and 63 percent in the U.K. , between 2007 and 2018 .
Most energy experts believe emissions in developing nations will peak and decline , just as they did in developed nations , once they achieve a similar level of prosperity .
As a result , global temperatures today appear much more likely to peak at between two to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ not four , where the risks , including from tipping points , are significantly lower .
The International Energy Agency ( IEA ) now forecasts carbon emissions in 2040 to be lower than in almost all of the IPCC scenarios .
Can we credit thirty years of climate alarmism for these reductions in emissions ?
We can ’ t .
Total emissions from energy in Europe ’ s largest countries , Germany , Britain , and France , peaked in the 1970s , thanks mostly to the switch from coal to natural gas @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Thunberg , AOC , and many climate activists adamantly oppose .
Michael Shellenberger is a Time Magazine “ Hero of the Environment , ” and president of Environmental Progress , an independent research and policy organization .
He is the author of Apocalypse Never : Why Environmental Alarmism Hurts Us All .
This article appeared on the Quillette website at https : //quillette.com/2020/07/08/why-i-believe-climate-change-is-not-the-end-of-the-world/


climatedepot--2020-07-09--Climate Plans From The Biden-Sanders ‘Unity’ Platform – Rejoin UN Paris pact on ‘day one’

“ Rejoin the Paris Climate Agreement … on Day One.
” Even many on the left agree that the Paris Climate Agreement does little to slow climate change .
It is a symbolic commitment by the rest of the world to reduce emissions , while most of the burden falls on the United States .
Our economy has reduced emissions anyway on its own , thanks to the shift to natural gas and the advent of fracking technology , which the left hates and wants to phase out over time .
Former Vice President Joe Biden and Sen. Bernie Sanders @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of their “ unity task force ” on Wednesday .
The proposed platform marks Biden ’ s continued shift to the left , as the so-called “ moderate ” candidate — a label he has rejected — continues to be steered toward more radical positions to appeal to the party ’ s base , offering “ revolutionary institutional changes.
” Here are nine of the most radical proposals in the “ unity ” document : 1 .
“ Rejoin the Paris Climate Agreement … on Day One.
” Even many on the left @ @ @ @ @ @ @ little to slow climate change .
It is a symbolic commitment by the rest of the world to reduce emissions , while most of the burden falls on the United States .
Our economy has reduced emissions anyway on its own , thanks to the shift to natural gas and the advent of fracking technology , which the left hates and wants to phase out over time .
2 .
Shift the entire “ fleet of 500,000 school buses to American-made , zero-emission alternatives ” in five years .
This is among the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s climate change section .
It is not clear who will produce these buses ( presumably to run on battery power ) , or what is to be done with half a million currently functional buses that run on ordinary fuel , and how local school districts are meant to afford the cost .
The platform provides no further details .
3 .
“ End cash bail.
” The platform calls for eliminating cash bail across the country — a radical experiment in criminal justice reform that has only just begun in California @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are deeply concerning .
The idea is to reduce inequities , but in practice the end of cash bail means releasing violent criminals to commit more crimes .
One suspect in antisemitic attacks in New York City late last year , for example , was repeatedly re-arrested after her releases .
4 .
“ Stop the practice of arresting children for behavior that ought to be handled in the principal ’ s office.
” The Democrats want to stop what they call the “ school-to-prison pipeline , ” arguing students of color suffer @ @ @ @ @ @ @ mean that liberal teachers are racist ) .
But as Andrew Pollack points out , failing to arrest violent children could allow them to buy guns as adults , which is how the Parkland , Florida , shooting happened .
5 .
“ We will repeal so-called ‘ right to work ’ laws.
” It is not clear how Democrats will actually do this , since these laws are made at the state level .
But “ right to work ” laws — freeing employees from being forced to join unions — have @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that have adopted them .
Working-class Americans — especially minorities — have voted with their feet , moving from the highly unionized Rust Belt to the “ right to work ” South , where there are more jobs .
6 .
“ Democrats will recognize unions with majority sign-up—via so-called ‘ card check ’ processes.
” The “ card check ” violates the right to a secret ballot , and allows organizers to intimidate workers into voting to certify unions .
The idea is so radical that even George McGovern , the left-wing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to President Richard Nixon in a landslide , came out against it the last time Democrats tried to mandate it , in 2009 .
7 .
“ Oppose private school vouchers.
” There is growing support for school vouchers that allow students to escape failing public schools in their local districts by choosing alternative schools — including private and religious schools .
Vouchers are especially popular with minority families , who are desperate to escape the failing system in which the teachers ’ unions have trapped their children .
Democrats also want to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ too .
8 .
Provide a “ public option ” toward universal health care .
This idea was so radical ten years ago that Democrats left it out of Obamacare .
But it is the beginning of “ Medicare for All , ” which Sanders wants to impose on everyone , and Biden wants to offer as a choice ( for now ) .
There is no thought of achieving universal health care outside government , building on the recent reforms under the Trump administration , such as tele-medicine — just more federal @ @ @ @ @ @ @ wall and “ provide a roadmap to citizenship for the millions of undocumented workers.
” A Biden administration would stop the construction of the “ unnecessary , wasteful , and ineffective wall on the southern border ” — thus allowing an open border — while also giving voting citizenship to the eleven million-plus illegal aliens who are already here , permanently changing the American electorate and enshrining Democrats in power forever .
Joel B. Pollak is Senior Editor-at-Large at Breitbart News and the host of Breitbart News Sunday on Sirius XM Patriot on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ p.m .
ET ( 4 p.m. to 7 p.m. PT ) .
His new book , RED NOVEMBER , is available for pre-order .
He is a winner of the 2018 Robert Novak Journalism Alumni Fellowship .
Follow him on Twitter at @ joelpollak .


climatedepot--2020-07-09--New Study Shows Oceans At Their Deepest In 250 Million Years

A new study says thanks to landmasses moving away from one another the seas are about 250 meters deeper than they were in the heyday of the dinosaurs and the seabeds are older than they ’ ve ever been .
Sea-level rise would be a complicated topic even if it were not politicized .
People often talk as though the seabed were like a bathtub , rigid and immobile , into which water either pours or does not .
But it ’ s not ; it rises and falls in complex local patterns , it erodes and accumulates , it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ be drifting downward if you get our drift .
This is continental because a new study says thanks to landmasses moving away from one another the seas are about 250 meters deeper than they were in the heyday of the dinosaurs and the seabeds are older than they ’ ve ever been .
The effect on ocean currents , heat absorption , and climate is… unclear .
It ’ s strange to realize that , deep as the seas are , they ’ re not very deep , in the sense that you @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ride very far .
You may have heard that if the Earth were the size of a billiard ball it would be smoother , a very cool factoid lacking just one key quality : accuracy .
Actually the Earth ’ s surface is rough , like sandpaper .
But there is an important truth hidden in that urban legend : The mighty mountains and ocean depths that stir our souls are as grains of sand to the Earth .
If our planet were the size of a billiard ball ( namely 5.715 cm @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Mt .
Everest would be 0.04 millimeters high , which would certainly simplify one item on the old bucket list .
And the awesome Marianas Trench would be barely bigger , at 0.45 mm .
( Don ’ t ask how big you ’ d be unless you fancy a session in the Total Perspective Vortex . )
So yes , even the Marianas Trench is nothing to the planet , despite the intricate way life depends not just on oceans but ocean tides .


climatedepot--2020-07-09--‘Extremely radical, terrible for workers, & the environment’ – Former warmist Shellenberger rips Bid

‘Extremely radical, terrible for workers, & the environment’ – Former warmist Shellenberger rips Biden-Sanders climate plan: – Plan ‘unscientifically blames climate change for flood, storm, & fire, damage’

Michael Shellenberger on the Biden-Sanders climate plan : `` Unscientifically blames climate change for flood , storm , & fire @ @ @ @ @ is not making disasters worse .
How could it be ?
*Disasters are n't getting @ @ @ @ @ getting better .
Deaths from disasters has declined 90+ % .
Costs of disasters not @ @ @ @ @ for rising wealth .
Just look at Miami Beach '' - Would kill off nuclear @ @ @ @ @ nrg '' What you 're proposing , @ AOC @ JohnKerry @ JoeBiden @ BernieSanders @ @ @ @ @ for workers , and terrible for the environment .
And we tried it already .
@ @ @ @ @ , I helped create the New Apollo Project .
It was a disaster . ''


climatedepot--2020-07-10--Environmentalists Accept Millions in COVID Stimulus Loans After Lobbying Congressional Allies For Re

Environmentalists Accept Millions in COVID Stimulus Loans After Lobbying Congressional Allies For Relief

Environmental activist groups who attacked oil and gas companies for receiving COVID-19 relief accepted millions in paycheck relief loans , according to government documents released earlier this week .
On Monday , the U.S. Treasury and Small Business Administration released data on recipients of the Paycheck Protection Program ( PPP ) loans authorized by Congress in March under the Coronavirus Aid , Relief , and Economic Security Act ( CARES ) Act .
The government-backed loans were a part of an economic stimulus package passed to combat the fallout from mandated shutdowns due to the COVID-19 pandemic .
Groups receiving @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Biological Diversity ( $ 2-5 million ) , 350.org ( $ 1-2 million ) , Food & Water Watch ( $ 2-5 million ) , Friends of the Earth ( $ 1-2 million ) , and the National Wildlife Federation , with a loan of between $ 5-10 million .
Other groups with a record of resisting energy development and infrastructure construction , including Earthworks , the Rainforest Action Network , WildEarth Guardians , and Oil Change International , received smaller loans of between $ 150,000 and $ 1 million .
Many of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ pass the CARES Act while they also tried to stop relief being directed toward the energy industry .
The Center for Biological Diversity in March deemed support for the industry a bailout and lambasted Congressional Republicans in the Senate for passing a $ 2 trillion stimulus package that included support for the energy industry along with the airlines industry .
The group actively lobbied for passage of the CARES Act , according to their lobbying filings .
At the time , Brett Hartl , government affairs director with the CBD , said , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ airlines and oil companies to get massive public financing without curbing the damage they ’ re doing to our planet.
” He told E & E News it was “ fundamental hypocrisy and arrogance ” for oil and natural gas companies to seek PPP loans .
The group subsequently submitted open records requests seeking additional information on applications submitted by oil and gas companies for federal relief under the CARES Act .
But even as the CBD was trying to prevent oil and gas companies from obtaining PPP loans , the group was @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Act , which it benefited from .
Lobbying reports show CBD spent more than $ 17,000 between January and March 2020 , with the CARES Act listed as a specific lobbying area of interest .
National Wildlife Federation spent $ 30,000 lobbying in the first quarter of 2020 , receiving one of the largest PPP loans of any environmental group , a Western Wire review shows .
Many other Keep-It-in-the-Ground activist groups applied and received PPP funding , including Friends of the Earth ( $ 1-2 million ) , Earthworks ( $ 150K-350K @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 350K-1 million ) , WildEarth Guardians , Food & Water Watch ( $ 2-5 million ) , 350.org ( $ 1-2 million ) , and Oil Change International ( $ 150K-350K ) also received large PPP loans .
Friends of the Earth called loans for oil and gas companies a “ surefire way to put taxpayers on the hook for distressed oil companies , ” according to the Washington Post .
Defenders of Wildlife received a loan of between $ 2 and $ 5 million .
The group defended their effort to obtain @ @ @ @ @ @ @ no obligation to the Trump administration because we obtained a loan through a program authorized by Congress to help employers retain their staff , ” Defenders CEO Jamie Rappaport Clark told E & E News .
“ Anyone who knows Defenders knows we would never pull our punches in fighting the Trump administration ’ s damaging and misguided policies for wildlife and public lands.
” EarthWorks and Oil Change International were listed in a recent press release from Sen. Chris Coons ( D-Del . )
as supporters of his Coronavirus Oversight and Recovery @ @ @ @ @ @ @ bill is designed to bring oversight , accountability , and transparency in the government ’ s response to the stimulus package .
Senator Coons said in the release , “ We have to ensure that aid is going to workers and businesses who need it most , not just the businesses with the most political connections .
Congressman John Sarbanes ( D-Md . )
, a House sponsor of the bill , added , “ COVID-19 relief must go to those who need it most .
American families , small businesses , health @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are hurting and we must do all we can to block special interests and corporate insiders from gaming the system.
” Food & Water Watch is among those special interest groups and has made resistance to energy development a core of its advocacy .
The top campaign on its website urges supporters to tell their members of Congress to support a fracking ban .
Other campaigns focus on resistance to pipeline construction or broader energy development .
In keeping with this anti-energy stance , the Food & Water Watch vocally resisted support for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and shutdown according to its most recent lobbying disclosure report .
The environmentalist group received a $ 2-5 million loan under the CARES Act .
League of Conservation Voters also rejected moves to support domestic oil producers to survive an era of plummeting price and instead pushed for support of minority and low income communities .
The group spent $ 70,000 on lobbying from January to March 2020 as COVID-19 spread and joined a dozen groups in sending a letter on March 20th calling for Congress to exclude oil and gas companies from @ @ @ @ @ @ @ senior vice president of government affairs , called the move a “ poignant example ” of the administration ’ s “ backward ” priorities .
“ Prioritizing corporate special interests in the midst of an unprecedented public health and economic crisis is the Trump administration at its worst , ” Sittenfeld said .
“ Now is the time to support communities , especially the low income communities and communities of color suffering the most from the coronavirus pandemic , the climate crisis , and toxic pollution — not bail out corporate polluting industries @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ” However , the Michigan chapter of LCV received a loan ranging from $ 150,000- $ 300,000 according to data from the Small Business Administration .
The loan-level data disclosures released this week include 4.9 million PPP loans made , with those receiving above $ 150,000 identified by recipient name .
Those below are anonymized .
“ The PPP is providing much-needed relief to millions of American small businesses , supporting more than 51 million jobs and over 80 percent of all small business employees , who are the drivers of economic growth @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Secretary Steven T. Mnuchin .
“ Today ’ s release of loan data strikes the appropriate balance of providing the American people with transparency , while protecting sensitive payroll and personal income information of small businesses , sole proprietors , and independent contractors , ” he continued .
The average loan size , according to SBA , was $ 107,000 , and 86.5 percent of all loans fell below the $ 150,000 identifying threshold .


climatedepot--2020-07-10--The End Is Nigh! Revisiting The Climate Dumpster Fire

The evidence showed that data was tampered with to paint the wished-for canvas , that counter-evidence was deliberately suppressed , that character assassination against climate skeptics was an accepted tactic and that experimental results were falsely replicated .
A new bundle of “ hide the decline ” email dumps , known as Climategate 2.0 , confirmed that the “ climate science ” had been cooked and that , in the words of Steven Hayward of the American Enterprise Institute , “ The new cache offers ample confirmation of the rank politicization of climate science and rampant cronyism that ought to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ change… it ’ s another case of policy-driven science and not science-driven policy.
” Even some of the specialists involved in the enterprise had begun to question or object to the findings as , to quote from the emails , “ not statistically significant , ” as “ truly pathetic , ” and as “ defending something that increasingly can not be defended.
” No wonder the lead researcher at the East Anglia CRU , Phil Jones , went so far as to recommend deleting all incriminating emails and/or changing the wording of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , 2011 ) .
The Hadley fable was thoroughly debunked by Rael Jean Isaac in Roosters of the Apocalypse , which showed in explicit detail that the ostensibly “ scrupulous seekers of scientific fact ” were really “ hardcore zealots ” mining “ an ever-richer vein of chicanery.
” In the same year , James Delingpole put out his alphabetary The Little Green Book of Eco-Fascism , as devastating as it is amusing , exploding the Hadley as a coven of plotters .
Certain figures in the movement had already made his point @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Stephen Schneider , Professor of Environmental Biology and Global Change at Stanford University and a vociferous global warmist—who twenty years earlier had been warning the world of an advancing ice age—had already advised his droogs : “ So we have to offer scary scenarios , make simplified dramatic statements , and make little mention of any doubts we might have.
” And there is much that is doubtful .
Michael Shellenberger , a longtime climate activist who has now seen the light , has just published Apocalypse Never : Why Environmental Alarmism Hurts @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the subject that remains in the temperate zone of argument .
It points to the many “ scary scenarios ” and exaggerations that the eco-activists have foisted on the public : wood fuel is preferable to fossil fuels , the Himalayan glaciers are melting , the oceans are dying , extreme weather events are on the rise , industrial agriculture is a disaster , massive crop failures are to be expected , and so on , all leading to the collapse of civilization and the looming extinction of human life .
Actually , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ but you ’ d never know it attending to so alarmist an agenda .
What is going on here ?
The climate industry is brewing perhaps the greatest deception of our times .
An integral part of this deception is the intent to redistribute First-World wealth to so-called developing countries .
Ottmar Edenhofer , the former co-chair of the IPCC ’ s Working Group III , admitted in an interview with Germany ’ s NZZ Online on November 14 , 2010 ( reported in Global Warming Science , March 17 , 2011 ) @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the world ’ s wealth by climate policy.
” But there is obviously more to it than that .
The climate change scam is a cash cow for research scientists , universities , and climate institutes on the receiving end of lucrative government grants , which they have no intention of relinquishing .
The global warming scenario is also a gold mine for energy companies , crony capitalists , and financial speculators , a multi-billion dollar boondoggle in which Big Oil has been replaced by Big Green , the major exploiter and benefactor @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s new documentary Planet of the Humans , as Charles Battig points out in American Thinker , reveals how “ energy corporations gained access to government funding/subsidies for wind turbine and commercial solar power installations , ” despite the fact that the unreliability and intermittence of such energy substitutes ensure that “ fossil fuel plants will remain the primary energy sources.
” The plot thickens .
Mark Levin ’ s chapter “ On Enviro-Statism ” in his book Liberty and Tyranny provides a compendious summary and critique of the various stages of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ functions as an instrument of statist control of civil society .
Like single-payer medicare and auto-industry bailouts , the myth of global warming enables the government to concentrate more and more of a nation ’ s economy into its own hands , leading eventually to a top-down socialist dispensation and a citizenry dependent on the whims and dictates of an autocratic managerial class .
The totalitarian mindset is a monstrous thing , and Climatocracy is one of its most arresting contemporary manifestations .
Global warming , said Philip Stott , Professor Emeritus of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ has become the grand political narrative of the age , replacing Marxism as a dominant force for controlling liberty and human choices.
” Similarly , Glenn Beck in Common Sense warns us about “ what is really going on : leaders who want more government control over our businesses , economy and personal lives…need a vehicle to take them there…climate change is that vehicle.
” What it boils down to , according to Delingpole in Watermelons , is the entwining of “ the ideology of the modern environmental movement and the ideology @ @ @ @ @ @ @ which are political cartels of a collectivist bent that “ believe in a bigger state ” and lobby for “ more of our decisions to be made on our behalf by politicians [ and ] technocrats.
” Thus the term “ watermelons ” : green on the outside , red ( or pink ) on the inside .
Perhaps all is not lost .
Michael Walsh writingon this site is gratified to note , if not a sea change , let ’ s say a river change among former climate activists and radical @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ] to the side of reason ” and “ joining the community of the sensible.
” But it ’ s not an easy slog for so-called “ climate skeptics , ” who are regularly slandered as heretics , as paranoid , as clueless , and so on .
They must often feel like modern-day Quixotes tilting at wind turbines , risking their careers and livelihoods in the process .
They know that the issue is not about science at all .
Apart from the inevitable cohort of useful idiots who see themselves as @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s all about money and power founded on deceit , persuasion , and threat .
And there we have it—what the global warming ( aka “ climate change ” ) movement , a fit candidate for the dump of history , actually comprises and intends .
The evidence is overwhelming and incontrovertible .
We are being pummeled into believing that we are facing an existential menace .
In 2009 , then Secretary-General of the UN , Ban Ki-moon , warned that “ We have just four months to secure the future of our @ @ @ @ @ @ @ informed that it ’ s 12 years or maybe , according to teenage wunderkind Greta Thunberg , a mere eight years .
The experts at the IPCC give us a decade to change our errant ways—or else !
It could be just 18 months , as that renowned climatologist Prince Philip , Duke of Edinburgh has admonished us .
We are constantly on the brink of extinction , it seems .


climatedepot--2020-07-10--No, June 2020 Was Not the Hottest June on Record

The Washington Post and other media outlets are claiming June 2020 was the hottest June on record .
Not surprisingly , that is fake news and a lie .
Let ’ s set the record straight .
The root of the claim that June 2020 was the warmest on record comes from an announcement from European Union climate scientists .
Yet the scientists don ’ t say that June 2020 was the warmest June on record .
Here ’ s what they actually said : “ Globally , temperatures last month were 0.53°C warmer than the average June from 1981-2010 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in this record and with the Siberian Arctic experiencing the most above-average conditions .
In Europe , temperatures were far above average in the north but below average in the south , overall tying as the second warmest European June in our record.
” Since when does a finding of “ almost tied as the warmest June ” allow ostensibly factual new organizations to breathlessly exaggerate and claim “ almost tied ” is the same as being “ the hottest on record.
” Again , the Washington Post simply printed “ fake news @ @ @ @ @ @ @ as well as generate unprofessional click-bait .
Similarly , in late June we were told that Verkhoyansk , Russia experienced the hottest ever temperature above the Arctic Circle , with some media outlets claiming the Arctic is “ literally on fire.
” We pointed out here on Climate Realism that not only was it a weather ( not climate ) event , but we also pointed out that such extremes are normal for the region .
For example , a warmer , 100-degree F temperature was reported above the Arctic Circle over 100 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ” ever became a cause .
Here ’ s another interesting note about the Verkhoyansk , Russia , being “ on fire ” last month – two weeks later , it snowed in the very same place that was “ on fire ” two weeks ago .
The mainstream media didn ’ t report on that , however , because it didn ’ t fit the alarmist warming narrative .
As it turns out , the brief high-temperature weather event in Russia caused a skewing of the global temperature record .
We are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the globe had the hottest-ever June on record , but as you can see in Figure 1 , that isn ’ t true at all .
There are many places on the globe that are in the blue , i.e .
“ below normal ” .
Only where the arrow points in Siberia do we have highly warmer than normal temperatures .
Most of the rest of Russian , by the way , was cooler than normal .
Figure 1 : Surface air temperature anomaly for June 2020 relative to the June average @ @ @ @ @ @ @ : ERA5 .
Credit : Copernicus Climate Change Service/ECMWF .
As you can see , had that area not experienced a weather event that created a localized heat wave , the global temperature wouldn ’ t be mathematically skewed high .
When making claims about “ global warming ” , being a problem , you can ’ t really accurately say the entire globe set a record , because we ’ re dealing with a skewed mathematical average that went off the scale because of one small region .
Looking at other data @ @ @ @ @ @ @ satellites , we don ’ t see a global record for June this year at all .
In fact , according to the satellite measurement data , June 2019 was warmer than June 2020 .
Dr. John Christy , senior scientist in charge of that data at the University of Alabama , Huntsville , said in an email “ June was not a record for Global , Northern Hemisphere , Southern Hemisphere , or the Tropics.
” You can read his Global Temperature Report here .
So , who do we believe when @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , it is an easy choice ; the Washington Post clearly lied , and I wouldn ’ t trust them to report on anything climate related as they have been blinded by the climate alarmism agenda .
The European Union climate scientists used the flawed and warmly biased surface data , which reads warmer than normal , and is prone to urban heat island issues , and also weather station siting problems that create warmer temperatures .
The EU also tends to be prone to political bias on the climate issue .
And @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 2020 was the warmest June on record .
It seems the NASA satellite data has none of those problems , nor does that data suffer from warm biases or an agenda .
It also says there ’ s no global record for June 2020 .
That ’ s the data I trust .
The post No , June 2020 Was Not the Hottest June on Record appeared first on Climate Realism .


climatedepot--2020-07-10--Junk Journalism: NYT’s Claim ‘More Torrential Rains’ In Japan Takes A Bath – Has No Basis

The Kyushu region of Japan has been getting lots of rain lately , which has led to flooding and 62 reported deaths because local officials failed to properly heed warnings to evacuate .
The New York Times , however , blames it all on the “ collision ” of “ demographic change and global warming ” instead of incompetence by local authorities .
“ In recent years , climate change has spurred more torrential rains in Japan , causing deadly flooding and mudslides in a nation with many rivers and mountains , ” reports Motoko Rich of the New York @ @ @ @ @ @ @ NYT neither provides data nor cites any study showing this to be the case .
So we look at Japan precipitation trends going back decades – something the NYT journalists obviously neglected to do themselves ( or they did , but then decided not to bring it up ) .
JMA data tell a whole different story Using data from the Japan Meteorological Agency ( JMA ) , Japanese blogger Kirye first plotted the annual precipitation anomaly for Japan since 1898 : The plotted data above show how Japan ’ s precipitation has @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and not risen .
The most recent decade in Japan has seen precipitation levels similar to that of the 1950s , and the very early part of the 20th century .
Nothing unusual is happening here .
Next we look at the JMA annual precipitation data for Hitoyoshi , Kumamoto Prefecture itself since 1948 : Here we observe very little trend change at all .
The recent rainfall in the region over the past decade has been similar to that seen in the 1950s .
Extremes are no more intense or frequent today @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Going a step further into greater detail , we look at the southern Japan region ’ s rainfall for July , going back to 1948 .
Also the here we have the same story : no major trend changes to speak of .
Very wet July months in fact were just as frequent and more intense in 1950s .
Finally we look at the region ’ s number of days recording a temperature of 30°C or higher .
Here as well the REAL trend is in fact bucking what the NYT always likes @ @ @ @ @ @ @ because of global warming .
Later in the article , Rich does ultimately get around to the real cause of the recent flooding deaths in Kyushu : “ The Japanese government issues standardized evacuation protocols , but they do not take into account the unique characteristics or terrain in different parts of the country , said Professor Tsukahara of Kyushu University.
” But all in all , very shoddy journalism here by the New York Times .
They would do their readers a service by checking the data instead of lazily repeating old @ @ @ @