scientificamerican--2020-11-06--Coronavirus News Roundup: October 31-November 6

The items below are highlights from the free newsletter , “ Smart , useful , science stuff about COVID-19.
” To receive newsletter issues daily in your inbox , sign up here .
Pregnant women with COVID-19 are at higher risk for outcomes such as intensive care admission , invasive ventilation , being put on a heart-lung bypass machine , and death than are non-pregnant women with COVID-19 , according to a large-sample study .
The study , conducted by more than a dozen U.S. Centers for Disease Control ( CDC ) researchers and others at a medical research company @ @ @ @ @ @ @ CDC to add pregnancy to the list of conditions that put people with COVID-19 at increased risk for severe illness and death , reports Roni Caryn Rabin at The New York Times ( 11/2/20 ) .
According to the CDC study , pregnant women should seek prompt medical care if they have symptoms of COVID-19 .
One of the CDC study authors is quoted as saying in Rabin 's story , “ The absolute risk of these severe outcomes is low among women 15 to 44 , regardless of pregnancy status , but @ @ @ @ @ @ @ risk associated with pregnancy.
” Scientific American editor Gary Stix tells the story of his experience as a plasma donor after learning in June that he had acquired antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 ( 11/3/20 ) .
It is unknown whether such “ convalescent plasma ” can help with the recovery of people with COVID-19 , but the treatment has received emergency approval for this purpose in the U.S. Knowing all this , Stix decided nonetheless to donate his plasma , in case it turns out to be helpful to others or even himself down @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to the face-mask requirements in U.S. states .
The 11/3/20 update states that 33 states and the District of Columbia require people to wear face-coverings in public .
The U.S. Centers for Disease Control ( CDC ) has asked U.S. states and territories to prepare to distribute an anticipated vaccine against SARS-CoV-2 , probably Pfizer ’ s , but many state officials say their states don ’ t have the money for the mammoth task and that they need a lot more federal funding , reports Lena H. Sun at The Washington Post @ @ @ @ @ @ @ each jurisdiction to identify five sites for storing and administering an unidentified number of doses of a vaccine at ultra-cold temperatures , Sun reports .
“ Pfizer will not apply for any authorization of its vaccine sooner than the third week of November , ” the story states .
“ Local officials still need to recruit thousands of people to staff vaccine clinics and enroll and train providers .
They also have to ramp up information technology and data systems to track vaccine inventory and ordering to ensure people get the correct doses @ @ @ @ @ @ @ will require two shots — and to monitor for adverse events , ” Sun writes .
While many high- and middle-income nations have made deals to purchase vaccines once they are ready , lower-income nations and billions of people might be left behind , reports Emily Rauhala at The Washington Post ( 11/2/20 ) .
“ People in low-income countries could be waiting until 2024 ” to obtain vaccine doses for their residents , Rauhala writes .
More than 150 nations have banded together to pool their purchasing power so they can make @ @ @ @ @ @ @ equitably distribute doses worldwide .
But the effort , called Covax , is being undermined by wealthy participating nations that are also making their own independent deals with vaccine makers .
Japan , Canada , and the European Union are part of Covax , but the U.S. is not .
An interactive published 10/30/20 by Science clearly illustrates the impact and irregular patterns of SARS-CoV-2 superspreading events , such as those that have occurred on cruise ships and at bars , parties , restaurants , barbecues , churches , gyms , and factories @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a virus infects two people on average ( this transmission average is called R , or the reproduction rate ) , actual transmission patterns can be hard to predict : “ one person may infect four people , two of those may not transmit the disease to anyone else .
One might pass it on to three others , and the fourth one may infect 21 people .
Of those 21 , many may not pass the virus on to anyone else .
But perhaps one will pass it on to 18 others @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is the case for the new coronavirus and many other infectious diseases , and this “ superspreading appears to be particularly important ” with the coronavirus , the piece states .
For this reason , many public health researchers advise that we avoid the “ three C ’ s ” — closed spaces with poor ventilation , crowds , and close-contact settings .
The insight also holds implications for contact tracing strategies , explain Martin Enserink , Kai Kupferschmidt , and Nirja Desai : https : //vis.sciencemag.org/covid-clusters/ .
An additive or multi-layer approach @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is reflected in a graphic illustration created by virologist Ian M. Mackay at the University of Queensland .
He tweeted an updated version of the graphic on 10/24/20 , with some explanation and commentary in the thread .
Don ’ t miss the “ misinformation mouse.
” Different versions and translations can be downloaded here .
With cooler weather in the U.S. this autumn , some restaurants are setting up outdoor “ dining bubbles ” for patrons .
SARS-CoV-2 transmission among diners and servers inside these “ clear , igloo-like structures ” is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ certain precautions are taken , ” experts say , according to an 11/2/20 story by Allyson Chiu in The Washington Post .
Droplets carrying particles of the virus could hang in the air inside these bubbles , says airborne transmission researcher Linsey Marr of Virginia Tech , especially if the air in the bubble grows stale .
For ventilation , fans could be “ placed facing outward near a tent ’ s openings , ” Marr is described as suggesting .
But adjacent parties of diners in separate bubbles are not likely to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Women ’ s Hospital doctor who specializes in infectious diseases is quoted as saying .
“ Restaurants have attempted to make indoor dining safer by requiring masks , reducing capacity and spacing out tables , but a growing body of evidence suggests it is still a high-risk activity , ” Chiu writes .
Dining bubbles might be safer for members of the same family or pod , compared with larger groups outside of one ’ s household , if pod or family members are all committed to strict behavioral controls , the story @ @ @ @ @ @ @ In retrospect , maybe surveying fifteen people outside of a Publix in Sarasota was a bad way to conduct a statewide poll , ” by Carlos Greaves , for The New Yorker ( 11/4/20 ) .

The items below are highlights from the free newsletter, “Smart, useful, science stuff about COVID-19.” To receive newsletter issues daily in your inbox, sign up here.
Pregnant women with COVID-19 are at higher risk for outcomes such as intensive care admission, invasive ventilation, being put on a heart-lung bypass machine, and death than are non-pregnant women with COVID-19, according to a large-sample study. The study, conducted by more than a dozen U.S. Centers for Disease Control (CDC) researchers and others at a medical research company called Eagle Global Scientific, prompted the CDC to add pregnancy to the list of conditions that put people with COVID-19 at increased risk for severe illness and death, reports Roni Caryn Rabin at The New York Times (11/2/20). According to the CDC study, pregnant women should seek prompt medical care if they have symptoms of COVID-19. One of the CDC study authors is quoted as saying in Rabin's story, “The absolute risk of these severe outcomes is low among women 15 to 44, regardless of pregnancy status, but what we do see is an increased risk associated with pregnancy.”
Scientific American editor Gary Stix tells the story of his experience as a plasma donor after learning in June that he had acquired antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 (11/3/20). It is unknown whether such “convalescent plasma” can help with the recovery of people with COVID-19, but the treatment has received emergency approval for this purpose in the U.S. Knowing all this, Stix decided nonetheless to donate his plasma, in case it turns out to be helpful to others or even himself down the line.
AARP publishes a guide to the face-mask requirements in U.S. states. The 11/3/20 update states that 33 states and the District of Columbia require people to wear face-coverings in public.
The U.S. Centers for Disease Control (CDC) has asked U.S. states and territories to prepare to distribute an anticipated vaccine against SARS-CoV-2, probably Pfizer’s, but many state officials say their states don’t have the money for the mammoth task and that they need a lot more federal funding, reports Lena H. Sun at The Washington Post (10/30/20). The CDC expects each jurisdiction to identify five sites for storing and administering an unidentified number of doses of a vaccine at ultra-cold temperatures, Sun reports. “Pfizer will not apply for any authorization of its vaccine sooner than the third week of November,” the story states. “Local officials still need to recruit thousands of people to staff vaccine clinics and enroll and train providers. They also have to ramp up information technology and data systems to track vaccine inventory and ordering to ensure people get the correct doses at the right times — most vaccines will require two shots — and to monitor for adverse events,” Sun writes.
While many high- and middle-income nations have made deals to purchase vaccines once they are ready, lower-income nations and billions of people might be left behind, reports Emily Rauhala at The Washington Post (11/2/20). “People in low-income countries could be waiting until 2024” to obtain vaccine doses for their residents, Rauhala writes. More than 150 nations have banded together to pool their purchasing power so they can make big collective deals with vaccine-makers and then equitably distribute doses worldwide. But the effort, called Covax, is being undermined by wealthy participating nations that are also making their own independent deals with vaccine makers. Japan, Canada, and the European Union are part of Covax, but the U.S. is not.
An interactive published 10/30/20 by Science clearly illustrates the impact and irregular patterns of SARS-CoV-2 superspreading events, such as those that have occurred on cruise ships and at bars, parties, restaurants, barbecues, churches, gyms, and factories. Even if each person infected with a virus infects two people on average (this transmission average is called R, or the reproduction rate), actual transmission patterns can be hard to predict: “one person may infect four people, two of those may not transmit the disease to anyone else. One might pass it on to three others, and the fourth one may infect 21 people. Of those 21, many may not pass the virus on to anyone else. But perhaps one will pass it on to 18 others,” the piece states. This is the case for the new coronavirus and many other infectious diseases, and this “superspreading appears to be particularly important” with the coronavirus, the piece states. For this reason, many public health researchers advise that we avoid the “three C’s” — closed spaces with poor ventilation, crowds, and close-contact settings. The insight also holds implications for contact tracing strategies, explain Martin Enserink, Kai Kupferschmidt, and Nirja Desai: https://vis.sciencemag.org/covid-clusters/.
An additive or multi-layer approach to reducing the risk of spreading SARS-CoV-2 is reflected in a graphic illustration created by virologist Ian M. Mackay at the University of Queensland. He tweeted an updated version of the graphic on 10/24/20, with some explanation and commentary in the thread. Don’t miss the “misinformation mouse.” Different versions and translations can be downloaded here.
With cooler weather in the U.S. this autumn, some restaurants are setting up outdoor “dining bubbles” for patrons. SARS-CoV-2 transmission among diners and servers inside these “clear, igloo-like structures” is “relatively low-risk, as long as certain precautions are taken,” experts say, according to an 11/2/20 story by Allyson Chiu in The Washington Post. Droplets carrying particles of the virus could hang in the air inside these bubbles, says airborne transmission researcher Linsey Marr of Virginia Tech, especially if the air in the bubble grows stale. For ventilation, fans could be “placed facing outward near a tent’s openings,” Marr is described as suggesting. But adjacent parties of diners in separate bubbles are not likely to infect one another, a Brigham and Women’s Hospital doctor who specializes in infectious diseases is quoted as saying. “Restaurants have attempted to make indoor dining safer by requiring masks, reducing capacity and spacing out tables, but a growing body of evidence suggests it is still a high-risk activity,” Chiu writes. Dining bubbles might be safer for members of the same family or pod, compared with larger groups outside of one’s household, if pod or family members are all committed to strict behavioral controls, the story suggests.
You might enjoy, “In retrospect, maybe surveying fifteen people outside of a Publix in Sarasota was a bad way to conduct a statewide poll,” by Carlos Greaves, for The New Yorker (11/4/20).


scientificamerican--2020-11-10--Top 10 Emerging Technologies of 2020

Top 10 Emerging Technologies of 2020

If some of the many thousands of human volunteers needed to test coronavirus vaccines could have been replaced by digital replicas—one of this year 's Top 10 Emerging Technologies—COVID-19 vaccines might have been developed even faster , saving untold lives .
Soon virtual clinical trials could be a reality for testing new vaccines and therapies .
Other technologies on the list could reduce greenhouse gas emissions by electrifying air travel and enabling sunlight to directly power the production of industrial chemicals .
With “ spatial ” computing , the digital and physical worlds will be integrated in ways that go @ @ @ @ @ @ @ And ultrasensitive sensors that exploit quantum processes will set the stage for such applications as wearable brain scanners and vehicles that can see around corners .
These and the other emerging technologies have been singled out by an international steering group of experts .
The group , convened by Scientific American and the World Economic Forum , sifted through more than 75 nominations .
To win the nod , the technologies must have the potential to spur progress in societies and economies by outperforming established ways of doing things .
They also need @ @ @ @ @ @ @ not currently in wide use ) yet likely to have a major impact within the next three to five years .
The steering group met ( virtually ) to whittle down the candidates and then closely evaluate the front-runners before making the final decisions .
We hope you are as inspired by the reports that follow as we are .
4 .
Spatial Computing Could Be the Next Big Thing 5 .
Digital Medicine Can Diagnose and Treat What Ails You 6 .
Electric Aviation Could Be Closer Than You Think 8 .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ See ’ around Corners

If some of the many thousands of human volunteers needed to test coronavirus vaccines could have been replaced by digital replicas—one of this year's Top 10 Emerging Technologies—COVID-19 vaccines might have been developed even faster, saving untold lives. Soon virtual clinical trials could be a reality for testing new vaccines and therapies. Other technologies on the list could reduce greenhouse gas emissions by electrifying air travel and enabling sunlight to directly power the production of industrial chemicals. With “spatial” computing, the digital and physical worlds will be integrated in ways that go beyond the feats of virtual reality. And ultrasensitive sensors that exploit quantum processes will set the stage for such applications as wearable brain scanners and vehicles that can see around corners.
These and the other emerging technologies have been singled out by an international steering group of experts. The group, convened by Scientific American and the World Economic Forum, sifted through more than 75 nominations. To win the nod, the technologies must have the potential to spur progress in societies and economies by outperforming established ways of doing things. They also need to be novel (that is, not currently in wide use) yet likely to have a major impact within the next three to five years. The steering group met (virtually) to whittle down the candidates and then closely evaluate the front-runners before making the final decisions. We hope you are as inspired by the reports that follow as we are.


scientificamerican--2020-11-10--What Conversations with Voters Taught Me about Science Communication

In mid-September , upon hearing the devastating news of Ruth Bader Ginsberg ’ s death , I set aside my usual science and journalism to focus on what seemed to matter most : talking to voters .
I spent every day for nearly two months contacting them over the phone , at doorsteps , through screen doors and in driveways .
I logged 2,500 phone calls , knocked 900 doors , walked 48 miles , and most importantly , engaged in 485 one-on-one conversations with people from all corners of Montana .
My usual work revolves around the discourse on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ have distilled useful guidelines for public engagement with science , but I took a reprieve from the academic and hypothetical to test these strategies in a very real—and sometimes intimidating—setting .
How do you break it to a rural voter in a major coal state that coal is never coming back ?
What tactics can one use to tiptoe through a conversation with a staunchly religious person to make the point that , in fact , humans are responsible for warming the climate ?
I made my share of blunders and endured a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ said … ” playing in my mind .
But I also learned reliable strategies for having pleasant , productive and persuasive conversations .
The election is behind us , but Americans remain deeply divided ; it ’ s an appropriate time to renew our commitment to build bridges rather than light them on fire .
More than ever , we can endeavor to build a broad coalition , rather than alienating those with differing views and priorities .
I humbly offer a few highlights from my experiences .
Listen .
And keep listening @ @ @ @ @ @ @ floor to another person yields immediate benefits .
The longer you listen , the more you ’ ll understand .
The more the other person talks , the more they ’ ll feel heard and comfortable .
Earnest , open-ended questions can build trust and open the door for dialog .
Say out loud the things you agree on .
Even if you squirm with some of what you hear , latching on to areas of disagreement almost always devolves into an argument—a trap I regrettably fell into a few times .
Instead @ @ @ @ @ @ @ agree .
For example , if someone opines that climate scientists are corrupt , you can readily agree that science should be credible and ethical—we all want that .
By focusing on where you ’ re already aligned , you can set the stage to make actual progress .
Share your findings , but only as they relate to those places of agreement .
This is the part of the conversation that we tend to focus on , but without careful groundwork , the opportunity won ’ t even arise .
Typically , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ getting to this point .
Of all the topics I explored with voters , the one that resonated most reliably was the influence of fossil fuel money in our political system .
But I didn ’ t hit people over the head with the fact that one of our senators has taken over $ 1 million from the fossil fuel industry .
Instead , I went there gently , pointing out our shared goal of ethical politicians and the idea that no one wants more pollution .
I often relayed this information as @ @ @ @ @ @ @ through campaign finance data while writing an article about political allegiances within the energy industry .
When I arrived at the final conclusion , it was part of the plotline , rather than a partisan talking point .
In one case , when I delivered the tally of our senator ’ s haul from the oil , gas and coal industries , an undecided voter exclaimed , “ Ah HA !
” as if she herself had just discovered it .
Rally around solutions .
A young woman who was a geology major @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and we went round and round many aspects of the science .
Finally , she relented , “ So what are we supposed to do about it anyway ?
” The mood of the conversation shifted from adversarial to collaborative , because there are inherent benefits in cleaning up the energy supply , regardless of one ’ s opinions on climate change .
We agreed on pretty much every point from there on out , and ended our 42-minute conversation on a cooperative , optimistic note .
Change lanes to avoid roadblocks .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ can hurt a conversation more than it helps .
In one such case I could practically hear a rural voter gritting her teeth through the telephone as she told me how it ’ s pure hubris to think that humans are causing global warming .
I took a few steps back and talked about pollution instead , making an appeal to her pro-life values by underscoring how the earth is essential to all life .
By the end of the conversation , she was assuring me that wind and solar energy were gifts @ @ @ @ @ @ @ quickly , and polluting corporations should step out of the way of progress .
Offer a vision of a common goal that ’ s appealing to both of you .
A man who was a constitutional conservative enjoyed regaling me with his political musings .
I dodged the usual bullets about how climate change is China ’ s fault and science has been wrong before , and cheerfully kept returning to the point that clean energy is the only energy that will work for Montana in the long run ; after all it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ what our West Coast energy customers want to buy .
I never took the bait on his talking points , and continued to rally around the optimistic goal that Montana should remain relevant in the energy industry , and to do that , we need to change with the times .
I ’ m certain I didn ’ t affect his vote , but I was able to introduce the idea that clean energy is a wise choice , while also managing to avoid arguing or pushback .
Persuasion is a long-term project @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to change their mind in the course of a single conversation .
But repeated , positive interactions can help chip away scientific myths and nudge someone toward an updated view .
In the wake of the most turbulent election of our lifetimes , there ’ s never been a better time to use our scientific and communication skills to foster common ground for the common good .
Opinions expressed here are solely the author 's own and do not reflect the views or opinions of her employers or collaborators .

In mid-September, upon hearing the devastating news of Ruth Bader Ginsberg’s death, I set aside my usual science and journalism to focus on what seemed to matter most: talking to voters. I spent every day for nearly two months contacting them over the phone, at doorsteps, through screen doors and in driveways. I logged 2,500 phone calls, knocked 900 doors, walked 48 miles, and most importantly, engaged in 485 one-on-one conversations with people from all corners of Montana.
My usual work revolves around the discourse on climate change and energy. Science communicators have distilled useful guidelines for public engagement with science, but I took a reprieve from the academic and hypothetical to test these strategies in a very real—and sometimes intimidating—setting. How do you break it to a rural voter in a major coal state that coal is never coming back? What tactics can one use to tiptoe through a conversation with a staunchly religious person to make the point that, in fact, humans are responsible for warming the climate?
I made my share of blunders and endured a never-ending case of “I should have said …” playing in my mind. But I also learned reliable strategies for having pleasant, productive and persuasive conversations.
The election is behind us, but Americans remain deeply divided; it’s an appropriate time to renew our commitment to build bridges rather than light them on fire. More than ever, we can endeavor to build a broad coalition, rather than alienating those with differing views and priorities. I humbly offer a few highlights from my experiences.
Listen. And keep listening. The simple act of giving the floor to another person yields immediate benefits. The longer you listen, the more you’ll understand. The more the other person talks, the more they’ll feel heard and comfortable. Earnest, open-ended questions can build trust and open the door for dialog.
Say out loud the things you agree on. Even if you squirm with some of what you hear, latching on to areas of disagreement almost always devolves into an argument—a trap I regrettably fell into a few times. Instead, tune your ear for where you agree. For example, if someone opines that climate scientists are corrupt, you can readily agree that science should be credible and ethical—we all want that. By focusing on where you’re already aligned, you can set the stage to make actual progress.
Share your findings, but only as they relate to those places of agreement. This is the part of the conversation that we tend to focus on, but without careful groundwork, the opportunity won’t even arise. Typically, it took several minutes of warm-up before getting to this point.
Of all the topics I explored with voters, the one that resonated most reliably was the influence of fossil fuel money in our political system. But I didn’t hit people over the head with the fact that one of our senators has taken over $1 million from the fossil fuel industry. Instead, I went there gently, pointing out our shared goal of ethical politicians and the idea that no one wants more pollution. I often relayed this information as a story, describing my deep dive through campaign finance data while writing an article about political allegiances within the energy industry. When I arrived at the final conclusion, it was part of the plotline, rather than a partisan talking point. In one case, when I delivered the tally of our senator’s haul from the oil, gas and coal industries, an undecided voter exclaimed, “Ah HA!” as if she herself had just discovered it.
Rally around solutions. A young woman who was a geology major insisted that climate change was fake, and we went round and round many aspects of the science. Finally, she relented, “So what are we supposed to do about it anyway?” The mood of the conversation shifted from adversarial to collaborative, because there are inherent benefits in cleaning up the energy supply, regardless of one’s opinions on climate change. We agreed on pretty much every point from there on out, and ended our 42-minute conversation on a cooperative, optimistic note.
Change lanes to avoid roadblocks. Climate change is a polarizing topic that can hurt a conversation more than it helps. In one such case I could practically hear a rural voter gritting her teeth through the telephone as she told me how it’s pure hubris to think that humans are causing global warming. I took a few steps back and talked about pollution instead, making an appeal to her pro-life values by underscoring how the earth is essential to all life. By the end of the conversation, she was assuring me that wind and solar energy were gifts from God that should be developed more quickly, and polluting corporations should step out of the way of progress.
Offer a vision of a common goal that’s appealing to both of you. A man who was a constitutional conservative enjoyed regaling me with his political musings. I dodged the usual bullets about how climate change is China’s fault and science has been wrong before, and cheerfully kept returning to the point that clean energy is the only energy that will work for Montana in the long run; after all it’s cheaper and it’s what our West Coast energy customers want to buy. I never took the bait on his talking points, and continued to rally around the optimistic goal that Montana should remain relevant in the energy industry, and to do that, we need to change with the times. I’m certain I didn’t affect his vote, but I was able to introduce the idea that clean energy is a wise choice, while also managing to avoid arguing or pushback.
Persuasion is a long-term project. It’s rare for someone to change their mind in the course of a single conversation. But repeated, positive interactions can help chip away scientific myths and nudge someone toward an updated view. In the wake of the most turbulent election of our lifetimes, there’s never been a better time to use our scientific and communication skills to foster common ground for the common good.
Opinions expressed here are solely the author's own and do not reflect the views or opinions of her employers or collaborators.


scientificamerican--2020-11-10--How to Minimize COVID Risk and Enjoy the Holidays

Anthony Fauci is not celebrating Thanksgiving with his three adult daughters this year .
The now famous director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases said in an American University Webinar that as much as he would love to spend the holiday with his kids , they had told him , “ We want you and Mommy to have a nice , quiet dinner.
” Fauci may be “ a ‘ young , ’ vigorous guy , ” they said , but he is also 79 years old—and that puts him in a vulnerable category for COVID-19 .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ across the country , have decided to send their love via Zoom .
With COVID-19 cases hitting an all-time high , a decision not to gather in person may be the most loving one a family can make this holiday season .
This is especially the case if its members include individuals in higher-risk categories , such as older adults and people with diabetes or cancer , to name just a few .
But not every type of holiday celebration carries the same risk , and the dangers of people getting together need @ @ @ @ @ @ @ social interaction , says infectious disease epidemiologist Julia Marcus of Harvard Medical School .
“ For some people , there are going to be risks very [ much ] worth taking , ” she says .
There is no such thing as a totally COVID-safe family gathering .
But here are some ways to reduce the dangers .
One would ideally want to minimize the total numbers of both attendees and households involved , Marcus says .
People who live together are essentially combining their exposure , so think of things in terms @ @ @ @ @ @ @ together .
In general , a celebration with 10 residents from a single household will be lower risk than a gathering involving five couples from five different households , Marcus says—unless , of course , someone in the 10-person home is a frontline worker , and those five couples have strictly quarantined for two weeks prior to the gathering and have avoided social contacts on their way to the event .
Individual circumstances matter , and that is why it is difficult to put hard-and-fast numbers on how many people are too many @ @ @ @ @ @ @ guest list , consider the risk each specific attendee poses , as well as how much risk each person is comfortable taking on .
Some cities , counties and states have limits on gathering sizes .
These restrictions are subject to change , so check the latest health directives before finalizing plans , says Matt Willis , public health officer of California ’ s Marin County .
Even a small gathering can seed an outbreak .
Texas resident Tony Green is a self-described former COVID skeptic who came down with the virus at @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in which there had been no masking or distancing .
“ I have no idea which one of us brought the virus into the house , but all six of us left with it , ” Green told the Washington Post .
Those six cases more than doubled , and before the ordeal was over , he was hospitalized with COVID-19 , and his father-in-law and another family member died of the disease .
It is safest to celebrate with people within your community so as to avoid transmission among different regions , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and medical director of the Special Pathogens Unit at Boston Medical Center .
And Willis says that if people travel between communities ( especially to or from ones with high coronavirus case numbers ) , “ a single Thanksgiving Day could fuel a community-wide surge.
” Before going anywhere , Bhadelia suggests checking how the epidemic is playing out in your local region at the time of travel .
It is difficult to put a strict cutoff on what kind of COVID-19 numbers should be deal breakers , but she says the test @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in any area where attendees will come from or travel to .
If you must travel , the safest way is by car .
Properly distancing in the confined space of a vehicle is impossible , so it is best to travel only with household members , Willis says .
If that is not possible , make sure everyone is wearing a mask and roll down the windows , says Joseph Allen , who studies risk science as director of the Healthy Buildings program at the Harvard T. H. Chan School of Public @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the effects of keeping the windows down three inches and found doing so could “ dramatically decrease the concentration of viral particles in the car , ” he says .
The major risk from air travel comes from airports , where people mingle with others from across the country or elsewhere , says Gretchen Snoeyenbos Newman , an infectious disease physician at the University of Washington .
Airplane ventilation systems can do a pretty good job , but they usually only function when the plane ’ s engines are on , Bhadelia says @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the ground for an extended period without the plane running , that can mean “ lots of people packed into a sardine can without ventilation , ” she adds .
Bhadelia recommends wearing both a mask and face shield on the plane .
The best way to cut the risk of transmitting the virus is to wear a mask , stay outside and keep six feet apart .
“ We ’ re seeing very few outbreaks [ that are ] traceable to outdoor gatherings , especially if people are covering their faces and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
He adds that his department ’ s contact tracing has shown that “ the most common cause of transmission is indoor gatherings .
It ’ s parties.
” Obviously , not every part of the country is conducive to outdoor holiday gatherings , so you might have to get creative , says A. Marm Kilpatrick , an infectious disease researcher at the University of California , Santa Cruz .
This could mean celebrating Thanksgiving a few weeks early—or next spring , when the weather is nicer—or even swapping a big sit-down meal @ @ @ @ @ @ @ as hiking , skiing or gathering around a firepit .
“ Make sure you ’ re having a very specific conversation about what you are and are not going to do in the weeks leading up to the visit , ” Newman says .
Communicate your activities and risks to family and friends so they can assess whether the risk for them is too great .
What you want to avoid is surprise exposure , where you get to the gathering and find out that someone else there has been doing things that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , says Ellie Murray , an epidemiologist at the Boston University School of Public Health .
Newman and her wife are both frontline workers and have agreed to avoid anything else that exposes them to other people .
They want to keep their risk as low as possible so they can feel comfortable having their parents come and spend time with their newborn baby .
Murray encourages people to talk about their feelings on the ways things are different this year .
Wearing masks at a family gathering may “ feel a little @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is okay to say so .
Another approach is to poke fun .
“ Maybe instead of an ugly Christmas sweater contest , you have an ugly Christmas mask contest , ” she says .
For two weeks before the get-together , everyone involved should be scrupulous about good COVID behavior : wearing masks , social distancing and reducing contact with people from outside the home as much as possible , Newman says .
Kilpatrick says the least risky way to include elderly or other at-risk relatives is to have attendees sequester themselves @ @ @ @ @ @ @ all in-person social contact , and then drive to the gathering while being very careful about interactions along the way .
If conducted carefully , this strategy can substantially lower risks of transmission , but Kilpatrick notes that only a privileged few can pull it off .
If quarantining is impossible , though , you can still take steps to limit your exposures prior to the gathering .
Testing is a good idea if it is available , and Newman suggests the ideal time for it is five to seven days after your @ @ @ @ @ @ @ quarantine bubble .
Do not use a test as an excuse to be complacent , however .
“ Tests are not perfect , ” Murray says—a negative test is no guarantee that you do not have the virus .
“ If you ’ re recently infected , you can still test negative for a little while , ” she says .
“ We saw that with the White House outbreak : people tested negative in the morning and had symptoms in the afternoon.
” Have a plan B ready .
“ Things could @ @ @ @ @ @ @ area has a sudden spike in cases , you ’ ll want to change your plans , ” Murray says .
Her research group has created a guide to celebrating the holidays during the pandemic .
If figuring out how to celebrate the holidays feels difficult , that ’ s because it is .
“ There are no easy answers , and it ’ s exhausting to be making these decisions on an everyday basis for such a long period of time , ” Marcus says .
It is important to recognize that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ” and “ unsafe ” but are instead on a continuum of risk .
“ Everything we do to adapt our lives to this virus is going to have some tradeoff , ” Marcus says , and accepting and acknowledging those trade-offs can be helpful .
Pandemic fatigue is no reason to let your guard down , Willis warns .
The very safest way to celebrate this year is still together but “ heart-to-heart , not face-to-face , ” he says .
“ I don ’ t want to give up on the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Read more about the coronavirus outbreak from Scientific American here .
And read coverage from our international network of magazines here .

Anthony Fauci is not celebrating Thanksgiving with his three adult daughters this year. The now famous director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases said in an American University Webinar that as much as he would love to spend the holiday with his kids, they had told him, “We want you and Mommy to have a nice, quiet dinner.” Fauci may be “a ‘young,’ vigorous guy,” they said, but he is also 79 years old—and that puts him in a vulnerable category for COVID-19. So his children, who are spread across the country, have decided to send their love via Zoom.
With COVID-19 cases hitting an all-time high, a decision not to gather in person may be the most loving one a family can make this holiday season. This is especially the case if its members include individuals in higher-risk categories, such as older adults and people with diabetes or cancer, to name just a few. But not every type of holiday celebration carries the same risk, and the dangers of people getting together need to be weighed against the benefits of social interaction, says infectious disease epidemiologist Julia Marcus of Harvard Medical School. “For some people, there are going to be risks very [much] worth taking,” she says.
There is no such thing as a totally COVID-safe family gathering. But here are some ways to reduce the dangers.
Keep It Small
One would ideally want to minimize the total numbers of both attendees and households involved, Marcus says. People who live together are essentially combining their exposure, so think of things in terms of how many contacts you are bringing together. In general, a celebration with 10 residents from a single household will be lower risk than a gathering involving five couples from five different households, Marcus says—unless, of course, someone in the 10-person home is a frontline worker, and those five couples have strictly quarantined for two weeks prior to the gathering and have avoided social contacts on their way to the event. Individual circumstances matter, and that is why it is difficult to put hard-and-fast numbers on how many people are too many, Marcus says. When making the guest list, consider the risk each specific attendee poses, as well as how much risk each person is comfortable taking on.
Some cities, counties and states have limits on gathering sizes. These restrictions are subject to change, so check the latest health directives before finalizing plans, says Matt Willis, public health officer of California’s Marin County.
Even a small gathering can seed an outbreak. Texas resident Tony Green is a self-described former COVID skeptic who came down with the virus at a six-person family gathering at his home in which there had been no masking or distancing. “I have no idea which one of us brought the virus into the house, but all six of us left with it,” Green told the Washington Post. Those six cases more than doubled, and before the ordeal was over, he was hospitalized with COVID-19, and his father-in-law and another family member died of the disease.
Limit Travel
It is safest to celebrate with people within your community so as to avoid transmission among different regions, says Nahid Bhadelia, an infectious-diseases physician and medical director of the Special Pathogens Unit at Boston Medical Center. And Willis says that if people travel between communities (especially to or from ones with high coronavirus case numbers), “a single Thanksgiving Day could fuel a community-wide surge.”
Before going anywhere, Bhadelia suggests checking how the epidemic is playing out in your local region at the time of travel. It is difficult to put a strict cutoff on what kind of COVID-19 numbers should be deal breakers, but she says the test positivity rate should be under 5 percent in any area where attendees will come from or travel to.
If you must travel, the safest way is by car. Properly distancing in the confined space of a vehicle is impossible, so it is best to travel only with household members, Willis says. If that is not possible, make sure everyone is wearing a mask and roll down the windows, says Joseph Allen, who studies risk science as director of the Healthy Buildings program at the Harvard T. H. Chan School of Public Health. Allen and his colleagues modeled the effects of keeping the windows down three inches and found doing so could “dramatically decrease the concentration of viral particles in the car,” he says.
The major risk from air travel comes from airports, where people mingle with others from across the country or elsewhere, says Gretchen Snoeyenbos Newman, an assistant professor of infectious disease at Wayne State University.* Airplane ventilation systems can do a pretty good job, but they usually only function when the plane’s engines are on, Bhadelia says. So if you end up on the ground for an extended period without the plane running, that can mean “lots of people packed into a sardine can without ventilation,” she adds. Bhadelia recommends wearing both a mask and face shield on the plane.
Stay Outdoors and Distance
The best way to cut the risk of transmitting the virus is to wear a mask, stay outside and keep six feet apart. “We’re seeing very few outbreaks [that are] traceable to outdoor gatherings, especially if people are covering their faces and practicing physical distancing,” Willis says. He adds that his department’s contact tracing has shown that “the most common cause of transmission is indoor gatherings. It’s parties.”
Obviously, not every part of the country is conducive to outdoor holiday gatherings, so you might have to get creative, says A. Marm Kilpatrick, an infectious disease researcher at the University of California, Santa Cruz. This could mean celebrating Thanksgiving a few weeks early—or next spring, when the weather is nicer—or even swapping a big sit-down meal indoors with a lower-risk outdoor activity such as hiking, skiing or gathering around a firepit.
Set Ground Rules Early
“Make sure you’re having a very specific conversation about what you are and are not going to do in the weeks leading up to the visit,” Newman says. Communicate your activities and risks to family and friends so they can assess whether the risk for them is too great. What you want to avoid is surprise exposure, where you get to the gathering and find out that someone else there has been doing things that feel like too much risk to you, says Ellie Murray, an epidemiologist at the Boston University School of Public Health.
Newman and her wife are both frontline workers and have agreed to avoid anything else that exposes them to other people. They want to keep their risk as low as possible so they can feel comfortable having their parents come and spend time with their newborn baby.
Murray encourages people to talk about their feelings on the ways things are different this year. Wearing masks at a family gathering may “feel a little weird” she says, and it is okay to say so. Another approach is to poke fun. “Maybe instead of an ugly Christmas sweater contest, you have an ugly Christmas mask contest,” she says.
Take Precautions before Gathering
For two weeks before the get-together, everyone involved should be scrupulous about good COVID behavior: wearing masks, social distancing and reducing contact with people from outside the home as much as possible, Newman says.
Kilpatrick says the least risky way to include elderly or other at-risk relatives is to have attendees sequester themselves at home for two weeks, avoiding all in-person social contact, and then drive to the gathering while being very careful about interactions along the way. If conducted carefully, this strategy can substantially lower risks of transmission, but Kilpatrick notes that only a privileged few can pull it off. If quarantining is impossible, though, you can still take steps to limit your exposures prior to the gathering.
Testing is a good idea if it is available, and Newman suggests the ideal time for it is five to seven days after your last exposure to someone outside of your quarantine bubble. Do not use a test as an excuse to be complacent, however. “Tests are not perfect,” Murray says—a negative test is no guarantee that you do not have the virus. “If you’re recently infected, you can still test negative for a little while,” she says. “We saw that with the White House outbreak: people tested negative in the morning and had symptoms in the afternoon.”
Be Flexible
Have a plan B ready. “Things could change on short notice. If your area has a sudden spike in cases, you’ll want to change your plans,” Murray says. Her research group has created a guide to celebrating the holidays during the pandemic.
If figuring out how to celebrate the holidays feels difficult, that’s because it is. “There are no easy answers, and it’s exhausting to be making these decisions on an everyday basis for such a long period of time,” Marcus says. It is important to recognize that the choices are not between “safe” and “unsafe” but are instead on a continuum of risk. “Everything we do to adapt our lives to this virus is going to have some tradeoff,” Marcus says, and accepting and acknowledging those trade-offs can be helpful.
Pandemic fatigue is no reason to let your guard down, Willis warns. The very safest way to celebrate this year is still together but “heart-to-heart, not face-to-face,” he says. “I don’t want to give up on the hope that people can do that.”
Read more about the coronavirus outbreak from Scientific American here. And read coverage from our international network of magazines here.
*Editor’s Note (11/10/20): This sentence was updated after posting to correct Gretchen Snoeyenbos Newman’s current affiliation.


scientificamerican--2020-11-10--Zebra Coloration Messes With Fly Eyes

Zebra Coloration Messes With Fly Eyes

Everyone loves zebras .
No doubt it ’ s the natty stripes , no doubt .
But recent research into why the stripes exist indicates that the markings may be something of a mixed blessing for the zebras that wear them .
New research adds to evidence against old ideas that somehow stripes cool them down or confuse predators , such as lions—confusing lions would be nice for them .
But the good news is that a group of researchers have additional evidence in support of a hypothesis they proposed in 2014 : stripes seem to confuse biting flies , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ into the zebras .
The study is in the journal Proceedings of the Royal Society B .
[ Martin J .
How et al , Zebra stripes , tabanid biting flies and the aperture effect ] Various ideas have been tossed around in the last 150 years about the African equids ’ stripes .
“ This debate goes right back to the birth of evolution , with Darwin and Wallace exchanging letters on the subject.
” Martin How , a biologist who studies animal vision at the University of Bristol , and lead @ @ @ @ @ @ @ his colleagues sought a mechanism for how stripes cause insect confusion .
They began with domestic horses in Great Britain .
They covered the horses with rugs featuring an array of designs : from single-color black or grey to checked patterns and , of course , zebra stripes .
The researchers then recorded videos of horseflies trying to get at the horses .
“ When we looked in detail at what these zebra stripes were doing to horseflies as they were flying , coming in to land , we found that horseflies were @ @ @ @ @ @ @ land on striped patterns than they were when they were landing on grey or black.
” Faster and more erratically .
The flies made successful landings much less frequently on the horses in stripes than on the solids .
But there ’ s more : “ And interestingly , we also in our recent work found that this also applies to checked patterns .
So it seems there ’ s something about black and white patterns that ’ s really confusing these flies.
” One assumption was that stripes affect the flies ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the aperture effect .
That effect creates a visual illusion akin to a barbershop ’ s pole , inducing distortion and causing flies to misjudge landings upon striped surfaces .
But crediting the aperture effect ’ s ability to discombobulate biting flies appears to be flawed—because the researchers found that checked surfaces were just as effective at repelling flies as were stripes .
“ Once we ’ d lost the aperture effect as a possible explanation for how zebra stripes affect fly behaviour , we then had to turn to other suggestions .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ of illusion that is happening in the eyes of these flies .
And it could also be that the stripes are disrupting the search pattern that these flies need to try and find a host .
So we ’ re undertaking more experiments now to try and find out which of those is the case.
” Whatever the result , evolution had a good reason to make zebras a horse of a different color .

Full Transcript
Everyone loves zebras. No doubt it’s the natty stripes, no doubt. But recent research into why the stripes exist indicates that the markings may be something of a mixed blessing for the zebras that wear them.
New research adds to evidence against old ideas that somehow stripes cool them down or confuse predators, such as lions—confusing lions would be nice for them. But the good news is that a group of researchers have additional evidence in support of a hypothesis they proposed in 2014: stripes seem to confuse biting flies, causing cause them to overfly or crash into the zebras. The study is in the journal Proceedings of the Royal Society B. [Martin J. How et al, Zebra stripes, tabanid biting flies and the aperture effect]
Various ideas have been tossed around in the last 150 years about the African equids’ stripes.
“This debate goes right back to the birth of evolution, with Darwin and Wallace exchanging letters on the subject.”
Martin How, a biologist who studies animal vision at the University of Bristol, and lead author of the study.
How and his colleagues sought a mechanism for how stripes cause insect confusion. They began with domestic horses in Great Britain. They covered the horses with rugs featuring an array of designs: from single-color black or grey to checked patterns and, of course, zebra stripes. The researchers then recorded videos of horseflies trying to get at the horses.
“When we looked in detail at what these zebra stripes were doing to horseflies as they were flying, coming in to land, we found that horseflies were flying much faster as they came to land on striped patterns than they were when they were landing on grey or black.”
Faster and more erratically. The flies made successful landings much less frequently on the horses in stripes than on the solids. But there’s more:
“And interestingly, we also in our recent work found that this also applies to checked patterns. So it seems there’s something about black and white patterns that’s really confusing these flies.”
One assumption was that stripes affect the flies’ optic flow via a process known as the aperture effect. That effect creates a visual illusion akin to a barbershop’s pole, inducing distortion and causing flies to misjudge landings upon striped surfaces.
But crediting the aperture effect’s ability to discombobulate biting flies appears to be flawed—because the researchers found that checked surfaces were just as effective at repelling flies as were stripes.
“Once we’d lost the aperture effect as a possible explanation for how zebra stripes affect fly behaviour, we then had to turn to other suggestions. So there might be some other kind of illusion that is happening in the eyes of these flies. And it could also be that the stripes are disrupting the search pattern that these flies need to try and find a host. So we’re undertaking more experiments now to try and find out which of those is the case.”
Whatever the result, evolution had a good reason to make zebras a horse of a different color.
—Mark Stratton
(The above text is a transcript of this podcast)


scientificamerican--2020-11-10--How to Stop Restaurants from Driving COVID Infections

In cities worldwide , coronavirus outbreaks have been linked to restaurants , cafes and gyms .
Now , a new model using mobile-phone data to map people ’ s movements suggests that these venues could account for most COVID-19 infections in US cities .
The model , published in Nature today , also reveals how reducing occupancy in venues can significantly cut the number of infections .
The model “ has concrete pointers as to what may be cost-effective measures to contain the spread of the disease , while at the same time , limiting the damage to the economy @ @ @ @ @ @ @ economist at the University of Warwick in Coventry .
“ This is the policy sweet spot.
” To predict how people ’ s movements might affect viral transmission , the research team input anonymized location data from mobile-phone apps into a simple epidemiological model that estimated how quickly the disease spreads .
The location data , collected by SafeGraph , a company based in Denver , Colorado , came from 10 of the largest US cities , including Chicago , Illinois ; New York ; and Philadelphia , Pennsylvania .
It mapped how @ @ @ @ @ @ @ neighbourhoods to points of interest , such as restaurants , churches , gyms , hotels , car dealers and sporting-goods stores for 2 months starting in March .
When the team compared the model ’ s number of infections in Chicago neighbourhoods between 8 March and 15 April with the number of infections officially recorded in those neighbourhoods a month later , they found that the model had accurately predicted confirmed case numbers .
“ We are able to faithfully estimate the contact network between 100 million people for every hour of the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ we have , ” says Leskovec .
The team then used the model to simulate different scenarios , such as reopening some venues while keeping others closed .
They found that opening restaurants at full capacity led to the largest increase in infections , followed by gyms , cafes and hotels and motels .
If Chicago had reopened restaurants on 1 May , there would have been nearly 600,000 additional infections that month , while Opening gyms would have produced 149,000 extra infections .
If all venues were open , the model predicts @ @ @ @ @ @ @ additional cases .
But capping occupancy for all venues at 30 % would reduce the number of additional infections to 1.1 million , the model estimated .
If occupancy was capped at 20 % , new infections would be reduced by more than 80 % to about 650,000 cases .
“ The study highlights how real-time big data on population mobility offers the potential to predict transmission dynamics at unprecedented levels of spatial granularity , ” says Neil Ferguson , an epidemiologist at Imperial College London .
The mobility data also suggests why @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to get COVID-19 : because they are less able to work from home , and the stores they visit for essential supplies are often more crowded than in other areas .
The average grocery store in poorer neighbourhoods had 59 % more hourly visitors per square foot , and visitors stayed on average 17 % longer than at stores outside those areas .
Leskovec says that people living in these areas probably have limited options to visit less crowded stores , and as a result , a shopping trip is twice as risky @ @ @ @ @ @ @ wealthier area .
But Christopher Dye , an epidemiologist at the University of Oxford , says these mobility patterns need to be validated with real-world data .
“ It is an epidemiological hypothesis that remains to be tested .
But it is a hypothesis that is well worth testing , ” he says .
Broadly speaking , Fetzer says , the modelling study corroborates much of what has been learnt from contact-tracing studies worldwide , which have identified restaurants , gyms , choir practices , nursing homes and other crowded indoor venues as @ @ @ @ @ @ @ people are infected at one time .
Last month , Fetzer published a report showing how a UK government programme called Eat Out to Help Out , in which restaurant meals were subsidized during August , led to a huge surge in restaurant visits and accounted for up to 17 % of new COVID-19 infections that month .
But restaurants might not be hot spots everywhere .
Contact-tracing data from Germany has found that restaurants were not the primary source of infection in that country , says Moritz Kraemer , who models infectious @ @ @ @ @ @ @ UK .
That might be because it can be difficult to identify the source of an infection using contact-tracing data .
Although the model ’ s prediction of overall infection rates in cities was validated with real-world data , Kraemer says more detailed contact-tracing data will be required to test whether the model correctly identified the actual location of infections .
Leskovec says that all models have some amount of error .
But as many of its predictions align with observational data , he adds , there is no reason to think that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ scales .
If the model is found to accurately predict the risk of visiting specific locations , health officials could use it to fine-tune social-distancing policies , says Ferguson .
This article is reproduced with permission and was first published on November 10 2020 .

In cities worldwide, coronavirus outbreaks have been linked to restaurants, cafes and gyms. Now, a new model using mobile-phone data to map people’s movements suggests that these venues could account for most COVID-19 infections in US cities.
The model, published in Nature today, also reveals how reducing occupancy in venues can significantly cut the number of infections.
The model “has concrete pointers as to what may be cost-effective measures to contain the spread of the disease, while at the same time, limiting the damage to the economy”, says Thiemo Fetzer, an economist at the University of Warwick in Coventry. “This is the policy sweet spot.”
Mobility data
To predict how people’s movements might affect viral transmission, the research team input anonymized location data from mobile-phone apps into a simple epidemiological model that estimated how quickly the disease spreads. The location data, collected by SafeGraph, a company based in Denver, Colorado, came from 10 of the largest US cities, including Chicago, Illinois; New York; and Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. It mapped how people moved in and out of 57,000 neighbourhoods to points of interest, such as restaurants, churches, gyms, hotels, car dealers and sporting-goods stores for 2 months starting in March.
When the team compared the model’s number of infections in Chicago neighbourhoods between 8 March and 15 April with the number of infections officially recorded in those neighbourhoods a month later, they found that the model had accurately predicted confirmed case numbers.
“We are able to faithfully estimate the contact network between 100 million people for every hour of the day. That is the secret ingredient we have,” says Leskovec.
Venue hot spots
The team then used the model to simulate different scenarios, such as reopening some venues while keeping others closed. They found that opening restaurants at full capacity led to the largest increase in infections, followed by gyms, cafes and hotels and motels. If Chicago had reopened restaurants on 1 May, there would have been nearly 600,000 additional infections that month, while Opening gyms would have produced 149,000 extra infections. If all venues were open, the model predicts that there would have been 3.3 million additional cases.
But capping occupancy for all venues at 30% would reduce the number of additional infections to 1.1 million, the model estimated. If occupancy was capped at 20%, new infections would be reduced by more than 80% to about 650,000 cases.
“The study highlights how real-time big data on population mobility offers the potential to predict transmission dynamics at unprecedented levels of spatial granularity,” says Neil Ferguson, an epidemiologist at Imperial College London.
The mobility data also suggests why people from poorer neighbourhoods are more likely to get COVID-19: because they are less able to work from home, and the stores they visit for essential supplies are often more crowded than in other areas. The average grocery store in poorer neighbourhoods had 59% more hourly visitors per square foot, and visitors stayed on average 17% longer than at stores outside those areas. Leskovec says that people living in these areas probably have limited options to visit less crowded stores, and as a result, a shopping trip is twice as risky as it is for someone from a wealthier area.
But Christopher Dye, an epidemiologist at the University of Oxford, says these mobility patterns need to be validated with real-world data. “It is an epidemiological hypothesis that remains to be tested. But it is a hypothesis that is well worth testing,” he says.
Global trend
Broadly speaking, Fetzer says, the modelling study corroborates much of what has been learnt from contact-tracing studies worldwide, which have identified restaurants, gyms, choir practices, nursing homes and other crowded indoor venues as locations of superspreader events, where many people are infected at one time.
Last month, Fetzer published a report showing how a UK government programme called Eat Out to Help Out, in which restaurant meals were subsidized during August, led to a huge surge in restaurant visits and accounted for up to 17% of new COVID-19 infections that month.
But restaurants might not be hot spots everywhere. Contact-tracing data from Germany has found that restaurants were not the primary source of infection in that country, says Moritz Kraemer, who models infectious diseases at the University of Oxford, UK. That might be because it can be difficult to identify the source of an infection using contact-tracing data. Although the model’s prediction of overall infection rates in cities was validated with real-world data, Kraemer says more detailed contact-tracing data will be required to test whether the model correctly identified the actual location of infections.
Leskovec says that all models have some amount of error. But as many of its predictions align with observational data, he adds, there is no reason to think that it wouldn’t work at smaller scales.
If the model is found to accurately predict the risk of visiting specific locations, health officials could use it to fine-tune social-distancing policies, says Ferguson.
This article is reproduced with permission and was first published on November 10 2020.


scientificamerican--2020-11-10--Record-Breaking Tropical Storm Eta Drenches Florida

President-elect Joe Biden said Saturday he ’ ll put climate change at the top of the Biden-Harris administration .
The climate responded with Tropical Storm Eta , the record-tying 28th named storm of the 2020 hurricane season and the first to bring high winds , torrential rain and flooding to Florida this year .
Experts say Eta , which could make two landfalls in the Sunshine State by week ’ s end , put an exclamation point on science-based warnings that tropical systems will grow wetter and more destructive as the climate warms .
And Eta almost certainly will be @ @ @ @ @ @ @ damages of at least $ 1 billion .
That ’ s nearly four times larger than the fiscal 2020 budget of NOAA , whose primary goals include “ reducing the impacts of extreme weather and water events to save lives and protect property.
” Eta broke records in other ways , too .
It was the 12th named storm to strike the United States in a single hurricane season , toppling the previous record of nine storms in 1916 .
If it restrengthens into a hurricane this week in the Gulf of Mexico @ @ @ @ @ @ @ land-falling hurricane in a calendar year , a record , according to NOAA ’ s National Centers for Environmental Information .
From 1851 through 2019 , the U.S. averaged 3.2 land-falling storms per year and 1.6 hurricane-strength landfalls , according to NOAA .
Yesterday , 65-mph winds and rain pounded Florida ’ s lower peninsula after Eta made landfall at Islamorada , about 17 miles south of Key Largo .
Emergency officials reported overwhelmed sewers and drainage canals in southwest Florida , with up to 3 feet of water backing up into streets @ @ @ @ @ @ @ National Weather Service reported nearly 18 inches of rainfall in Pembroke Pines , a Broward County city of 180,000 on the edge of the Everglades .
“ In some areas , the water isn ’ t pumping out as fast as it ’ s coming in , ” Miami-Dade County Commissioner Jose “ Pepe ” Diaz told the Orlando Sentinel yesterday morning .
In Monroe County , which includes the Florida Keys , officials warned of major saltwater flooding across roads and low-lying areas on the bayside of Key Largo .
“ Storm @ @ @ @ @ @ @ walls and docks will be overtopped , ” Monroe County Emergency Management said .
The Army Corps of Engineers , which had been diverting water from Lake Okeechobee since mid-October due to high water levels , could see substantial inflows over the next several days as Eta soaks areas immediately north of the lake .
A breach or overtopping of Okeechobee ’ s earthen dike could trigger massive flooding in the Everglades .
Eta had already killed more than 100 people in Costa Rica , Guatemala , Honduras , Nicaragua and Panama after @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 4 storm one week ago .
The National Hurricane Center reported at 4 p.m. EST yesterday that the storm was moving west at 16 mph as an upper-level , low-pressure system pushed the storm ’ s center over the Gulf of Mexico .
It was expected to see “ little overall motion ” today followed by a slow northward motion overnight into tomorrow .
Eta could modestly strengthen over the next 24 hours , forecasters said , with an additional 12 to 18 inches of rain possible over peninsular Florida today and tonight @ @ @ @ @ @ @ was the first named storm to directly hit Florida this year .
Category 2 Hurricane Sally , which landed at Gulf Shores , Ala. , did extensive damage in nearby Pensacola and the westernmost Florida Panhandle ( Climatewire , Sept. 16 ) .
By contrast , Louisiana had five land-falling storms through Oct. 30.—Cristobal , Marco , Laura , Delta and Zeta .
Laura , a Category 4 hurricane , brought 150-mph winds to Cameron , La.
, tying a record from 1856 ( Climatewire , Aug. 28 ) .
Six weeks later @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , La.
, just 13 miles east of Cameron .
Philip Klotzbach , a meteorologist at Colorado State University and expert on Atlantic basin hurricanes , said on Twitter that the first nine days of November saw 15 “ accumulated cyclone energy ” events , an integrated metric accounting for intensity and duration of tropical storms .
The last time that happened was in 2001 , and it has occurred only four times dating back to 1896 .
Josh Alland , a hurricane expert at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the ninth storm this year to “ rapidly intensify , ” with wind speeds increasing 70 mph over 24 hours .
Research has shown that rates of intensification may increase under warming climate conditions , he said .
Reprinted from Climatewire with permission from E & E News .
E & E provides daily coverage of essential energy and environmental news at www.eenews.net .

President-elect Joe Biden said Saturday he’ll put climate change at the top of the Biden-Harris administration.
The climate responded with Tropical Storm Eta, the record-tying 28th named storm of the 2020 hurricane season and the first to bring high winds, torrential rain and flooding to Florida this year.
Experts say Eta, which could make two landfalls in the Sunshine State by week’s end, put an exclamation point on science-based warnings that tropical systems will grow wetter and more destructive as the climate warms.
And Eta almost certainly will be the 17th climate disaster this year with damages of at least $1 billion.
That’s nearly four times larger than the fiscal 2020 budget of NOAA, whose primary goals include “reducing the impacts of extreme weather and water events to save lives and protect property.”
Eta broke records in other ways, too. It was the 12th named storm to strike the United States in a single hurricane season, toppling the previous record of nine storms in 1916. If it restrengthens into a hurricane this week in the Gulf of Mexico, it would become the seventh U.S. land-falling hurricane in a calendar year, a record, according to NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information.
From 1851 through 2019, the U.S. averaged 3.2 land-falling storms per year and 1.6 hurricane-strength landfalls, according to NOAA.
Yesterday, 65-mph winds and rain pounded Florida’s lower peninsula after Eta made landfall at Islamorada, about 17 miles south of Key Largo. Emergency officials reported overwhelmed sewers and drainage canals in southwest Florida, with up to 3 feet of water backing up into streets from Miami-Dade to Fort Lauderdale.
The National Weather Service reported nearly 18 inches of rainfall in Pembroke Pines, a Broward County city of 180,000 on the edge of the Everglades. “In some areas, the water isn’t pumping out as fast as it’s coming in,” Miami-Dade County Commissioner Jose “Pepe” Diaz told the Orlando Sentinel yesterday morning.
In Monroe County, which includes the Florida Keys, officials warned of major saltwater flooding across roads and low-lying areas on the bayside of Key Largo. “Storm drains will overflow, and many sea walls and docks will be overtopped,” Monroe County Emergency Management said.
The Army Corps of Engineers, which had been diverting water from Lake Okeechobee since mid-October due to high water levels, could see substantial inflows over the next several days as Eta soaks areas immediately north of the lake. A breach or overtopping of Okeechobee’s earthen dike could trigger massive flooding in the Everglades.
Eta had already killed more than 100 people in Costa Rica, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua and Panama after landing in Central America as a Category 4 storm one week ago.
The National Hurricane Center reported at 4 p.m. EST yesterday that the storm was moving west at 16 mph as an upper-level, low-pressure system pushed the storm’s center over the Gulf of Mexico. It was expected to see “little overall motion” today followed by a slow northward motion overnight into tomorrow.
Eta could modestly strengthen over the next 24 hours, forecasters said, with an additional 12 to 18 inches of rain possible over peninsular Florida today and tonight, NOAA said.
Remarkably, Eta was the first named storm to directly hit Florida this year. Category 2 Hurricane Sally, which landed at Gulf Shores, Ala., did extensive damage in nearby Pensacola and the westernmost Florida Panhandle (Climatewire, Sept. 16).
By contrast, Louisiana had five land-falling storms through Oct. 30.—Cristobal, Marco, Laura, Delta and Zeta. Laura, a Category 4 hurricane, brought 150-mph winds to Cameron, La., tying a record from 1856 (Climatewire, Aug. 28). Six weeks later, Hurricane Delta made landfall at Creole, La., just 13 miles east of Cameron.
Philip Klotzbach, a meteorologist at Colorado State University and expert on Atlantic basin hurricanes, said on Twitter that the first nine days of November saw 15 “accumulated cyclone energy” events, an integrated metric accounting for intensity and duration of tropical storms. The last time that happened was in 2001, and it has occurred only four times dating back to 1896.
Josh Alland, a hurricane expert at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colo., noted that Eta was the ninth storm this year to “rapidly intensify,” with wind speeds increasing 70 mph over 24 hours. Research has shown that rates of intensification may increase under warming climate conditions, he said.
Reprinted from Climatewire with permission from E&E News. E&E provides daily coverage of essential energy and environmental news at www.eenews.net.


scientificamerican--2020-11-10--A Running List of Record-Breaking Natural Disasters in 2020

Editor ’ s Note ( 11/10/20 ) : This story has been updated to reflect new records , including 2020 becoming the busiest Atlantic hurricane season on record .
So far 2020 has been a standout year for all the wrong reasons , including its devastating natural disasters .
Wildfires have ravaged the western U.S. , and tropical cyclones have popped up left and right , with several causing significant damage to coastal areas .
The latest storm , Hurricane Delta , is headed for the Gulf Coast .
Though they are called natural disasters , the toll they take @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The buildup of communities in vulnerable areas , such as along the coasts and fire-prone areas of the West , means more people are in harm ’ s way .
Climate change , fueled by greenhouse gas emissions from energy use and industrial processes , has also upped the ante .
Hotter weather dries out the grasses and forest debris that can ignite , fueling bigger and longer-lasting wildfires .
And rising seas and heavier downpours mean higher flood risks during storms .
These factors have helped push some of this year ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , shatter—previous records .
This is a running list of all the ones that have been set this year .
The 2020 Atlantic hurricane season has already been a doozy , and it does not even officially end until November 30 .
Here are some of the records it has already achieved : • This is only the second time that the official alphabetical list of hurricane names has been used up , meaning forecasters have had to move to the supplementary list of Greek letter names .
• The 2020 season has @ @ @ @ @ @ @ most named storms on record : 29 .
( Named storms are those that reach at least tropical storm strength , with winds of 39 to 73 miles per hour . )
• Twenty-six of the 29 storms that formed so far this season were the earliest of their storm number to do so .
For example , Delta was the earliest 25th named storm of any season , beating out Tropical Storm Gamma , which formed on November 15 , 2005 .
• When Tropical Storm Eta made landfall on Florida ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ November 8 , it became the only 12th named storm to hit the U.S. in a single season .
It broke the record set just weeks earlier by Hurricane Zeta and Hurricane Delta before it .
Prior to 2020 , the season with the most landfalls was 1916 , which had nine .
• Hurricane Zeta was the sixth hurricane to hit the U.S. this year , tying 1886 and 1985 for the most continental U.S. hurricane landfalls in a single season .
• Zeta was the record fifth named storm to hit @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Delta ’ s landfall was the first time a Greek-alphabet-named hurricane has made landfall in the U.S. • Hurricane Eta became the strongest Greek alphabet-named storm in the Atlantic on Nov. 2 , with sustained winds of 150 mph .
• September , which falls within the peak of the hurricane season , saw a record 10 named storms form within the month .
( The previous record was eight . )
• In mid-September , there were five storms churning around the Atlantic Ocean simultaneously for only the second time on record @ @ @ @ @ @ @ time on record that three named storms—Wilfred , Alpha and Beta—all formed on the same day .
The only other time this was known to happen was on August 15 , 1893 , before hurricanes received official alphabetical names .
Wildfires have taken an enormous toll on western U.S. communities , both from flames and harmful smoke .
California has borne the worst of it .
Here are some of the records that have been set : • Fires have so far burned more than four million acres across California , about doubling @ @ @ @ @ @ @ acres set in 2018 .
Quality records of fires size in California go back to 1932 .
• The August Complex Fire alone has burned more than one million acres , by far the largest in California ’ s history .
The previous record of more than 459,000 acres was set in 2018 by the Mendocino Complex Fire .
• Five of California ’ s six largest fires are burning this year .
• On October 14 Colorado ’ s Cameron Peak Fire surged to become the largest in state history , surpassing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ prior by the Pine Gulch Fire .
As of October 28 , the new record holder had burned more than 208,000 acres .
Heavy rain sent water levels in the Tittabawassee River to record highs in May , causing the failures of the Edenville and Sanford dams near Midland , Mich .
Some 10,000 residents had to evacuate because of the subsequent floods .
Phoenix set a record for the most days with temperatures of 100 degrees Fahrenheit or higher with 144 days .
Heat , especially over prolonged periods , can exacerbate @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the leading causes of weather-related deaths in the U.S .
So far this year , the U.S. has had 16 natural disasters ( including wildfires , hurricanes , tornadoes and drought ) that each caused at least $ 1 billion in damage , tying the record set in both 2011 and 2017—with several months left to go .
Such statistics have been compiled since 1980 .

Editor’s Note (12/22/20): This story has been updated to reflect new records set through the November 30 end of the hurricane season.
This year has been a standout year for all the wrong reasons, including its devastating natural disasters. Wildfires have ravaged the western U.S., and tropical cyclones have popped up left and right, with several causing significant damage to coastal areas.
Though they are called natural disasters, the toll they take comes in part from human actions. The buildup of communities in vulnerable areas, such as along the coasts and fire-prone areas of the West, means more people are in harm’s way. Climate change, fueled by greenhouse gas emissions from energy use and industrial processes, has also upped the ante. Hotter weather dries out the grasses and forest debris that can ignite, fueling bigger and longer-lasting wildfires. And rising seas and heavier downpours mean higher flood risks during storms.
These factors have helped push some of this year’s disasters to surpass—and in some cases, shatter—previous records. This is a running list of all the ones that have been set this year.
Hurricanes
The 2020 Atlantic hurricane season was a doozy. Here are some of the records it achieved:
This is only the second time that the official alphabetical list of hurricane names has been used up, meaning forecasters have had to move to the supplementary list of Greek letter names.
The 2020 season surpassed 2005 as the one with the most named storms on record: 30. (Named storms are those that reach at least tropical storm strength, with winds of 39 to 73 miles per hour.)
Twenty-seven of the 30 storms that formed this season were the earliest of their storm number to do so. For example, Delta was the earliest 25th named storm of any season, beating out Tropical Storm Gamma, which formed on November 15, 2005.
When Tropical Storm Eta made landfall on Florida’s island of Lower Matecumbe Key on November 8, it became the only 12th named storm to hit the U.S. in a single season. It broke the record set just weeks earlier by Hurricane Zeta and Hurricane Delta before it. Prior to 2020, the season with the most landfalls was 1916, which had nine.
Hurricane Zeta was the sixth hurricane to hit the U.S. this year, tying 1886 and 1985 for the most continental U.S. hurricane landfalls in a single season.
Zeta was the record fifth named storm to hit Louisiana in a single season.
Delta’s landfall was the first time a Greek-alphabet-named hurricane has made landfall in the U.S.
Hurricane Iota was the latest known category 5 hurricane in the Atlantic, reaching that status on November 16. The old record, for November 8, was held by the Cuba Hurricane of 1932.
This November was the first on record to have two major hurricanes, Eta and Iota.
This was the record fifth consecutive year to see a category 5 storm form.
September, which falls within the peak of the hurricane season, saw a record 10 named storms form within the month. (The previous record was eight.)
In mid-September, there were five storms churning around the Atlantic Ocean simultaneously for only the second time on record.
September 18 marked the second time on record that three named storms—Wilfred, Alpha and Beta—all formed on the same day. The only other time this was known to happen was on August 15, 1893, before hurricanes received official alphabetical names.
(The Atlantic hurricane database, managed by the National Hurricane Center, extends back to 1851. The lists of alternating male and female hurricane names have been in use since 1979.)
Wildfires
Wildfires have taken an enormous toll on western U.S. communities, both from flames and harmful smoke. California bore the worst of it. Here are some of the records that were set:
Fires burned more than four million acres across California, about doubling the previous record of nearly two million acres set in 2018. Quality records of fires size in California go back to 1932.
The August Complex Fire alone burned more than one million acres, by far the largest in California’s history. The previous record of more than 459,000 acres was set in 2018 by the Mendocino Complex Fire.
Five of California’s six largest fires burned this year.
On October 14 Colorado’s Cameron Peak Fire surged to become the largest in state history, burning more than 208,000 acres and surpassing the record set less than two months prior by the Pine Gulch Fire.
Rain and Flooding
Heavy rain sent water levels in the Tittabawassee River to record highs in May, causing the failures of the Edenville and Sanford dams near Midland, Mich. Some 10,000 residents had to evacuate because of the subsequent floods.
Heat
Heat, especially over prolonged periods, can exacerbate existing health conditions and is one of the leading causes of weather-related deaths in the U.S. The Phoenix area saw notable heat this year.
Phoenix set a record for the most days with temperatures of 100 degrees Fahrenheit or higher with 144 days.
On Nov. 16, the city saw its latest 90-degree day on record, beating the previous record of Nov. 15.
Overall
Through September, the U.S. had 16 natural disasters (including wildfires, hurricanes, tornadoes and drought) that each caused at least $1 billion in damage, tying the record set in both 2011 and 2017—with several months left to go. Such statistics have been compiled since 1980.


scientificamerican--2020-11-10--Sun-Powered Chemistry Can Turn Carbon Dioxide into Common Materials

The manufacture of many chemicals important to human health and comfort consumes fossil fuels , thereby contributing to extractive processes , carbon dioxide emissions and climate change .
A new approach employs sunlight to convert waste carbon dioxide into these needed chemicals , potentially reducing emissions in two ways : by using the unwanted gas as a raw material and sunlight , not fossil fuels , as the source of energy needed for production .
This process is becoming increasingly feasible thanks to advances in sunlight-activated catalysts , or photocatalysts .
In recent years investigators have developed photocatalysts that break @ @ @ @ @ @ @ oxygen in carbon dioxide .
This is a critical first step in creating “ solar ” refineries that produce useful compounds from the waste gas—including “ platform ” molecules that can serve as raw materials for the synthesis of such varied products as medicines , detergents , fertilizers and textiles .
Photocatalysts are typically semiconductors , which require high-energy ultraviolet light to generate the electrons involved in the transformation of carbon dioxide .
Yet ultraviolet light is both scarce ( representing just 5 percent of sunlight ) and harmful .
The development of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and benign visible light has therefore been a major objective .
That demand is being addressed by careful engineering of the composition , structure and morphology of existing catalysts , such as titanium dioxide .
Although it efficiently converts carbon dioxide into other molecules solely in response to ultraviolet light , doping it with nitrogen greatly lowers the energy required to do so .
The altered catalyst now needs only visible light to yield widely used chemicals such as methanol , formaldehyde and formic acid—collectively important in the manufacture of adhesives , foams @ @ @ @ @ @ @ disinfectants .
At the moment , solar chemical research is occurring mainly in academic laboratories , including at the Joint Center for Artificial Photosynthesis , run by the California Institute of Technology in partnership with Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory ; a Netherlands-based collaboration of universities , industry and research and technology organizations called the Sunrise consortium ; and the department of heterogeneous reactions at the Max Planck Institute for Chemical Energy Conversion in Mülheim , Germany .
Some start-ups are working on a different approach to transforming carbon dioxide into useful substances—namely , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Using electricity to power the reactions would obviously be less environmentally friendly than using sunlight if the electricity were derived from fossil-fuel combustion , but reliance on photovoltaics could overcome that drawback .
The advances occurring in the sunlight-driven conversion of carbon dioxide into chemicals are sure to be commercialized and further developed by start-ups or other companies in the coming years .
Then the chemical industry—by transforming what today is waste carbon dioxide into valuable products—will move a step closer to becoming part of a true , waste-free , circular economy @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the goal of generating negative emissions a reality .

The manufacture of many chemicals important to human health and comfort consumes fossil fuels, thereby contributing to extractive processes, carbon dioxide emissions and climate change. A new approach employs sunlight to convert waste carbon dioxide into these needed chemicals, potentially reducing emissions in two ways: by using the unwanted gas as a raw material and sunlight, not fossil fuels, as the source of energy needed for production.
This process is becoming increasingly feasible thanks to advances in sunlight-activated catalysts, or photocatalysts. In recent years investigators have developed photocatalysts that break the resistant double bond between carbon and oxygen in carbon dioxide. This is a critical first step in creating “solar” refineries that produce useful compounds from the waste gas—including “platform” molecules that can serve as raw materials for the synthesis of such varied products as medicines, detergents, fertilizers and textiles.
Photocatalysts are typically semiconductors, which require high-energy ultraviolet light to generate the electrons involved in the transformation of carbon dioxide. Yet ultraviolet light is both scarce (representing just 5 percent of sunlight) and harmful. The development of new catalysts that work under more abundant and benign visible light has therefore been a major objective. That demand is being addressed by careful engineering of the composition, structure and morphology of existing catalysts, such as titanium dioxide. Although it efficiently converts carbon dioxide into other molecules solely in response to ultraviolet light, doping it with nitrogen greatly lowers the energy required to do so. The altered catalyst now needs only visible light to yield widely used chemicals such as methanol, formaldehyde and formic acid—collectively important in the manufacture of adhesives, foams, plywood, cabinetry, flooring and disinfectants.
At the moment, solar chemical research is occurring mainly in academic laboratories, including at the Joint Center for Artificial Photosynthesis, run by the California Institute of Technology in partnership with Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory; a Netherlands-based collaboration of universities, industry and research and technology organizations called the Sunrise consortium; and the department of heterogeneous reactions at the Max Planck Institute for Chemical Energy Conversion in Mülheim, Germany. Some start-ups are working on a different approach to transforming carbon dioxide into useful substances—namely, applying electricity to drive the chemical reactions. Using electricity to power the reactions would obviously be less environmentally friendly than using sunlight if the electricity were derived from fossil-fuel combustion, but reliance on photovoltaics could overcome that drawback.
The advances occurring in the sunlight-driven conversion of carbon dioxide into chemicals are sure to be commercialized and further developed by start-ups or other companies in the coming years. Then the chemical industry—by transforming what today is waste carbon dioxide into valuable products—will move a step closer to becoming part of a true, waste-free, circular economy, as well as helping to make the goal of generating negative emissions a reality.


scientificamerican--2020-11-10--Microneedles Could Enable Painless Injections and Blood Draws

Barely visible needles , or “ microneedles , ” are poised to usher in an era of pain-free injections and blood testing .
Whether attached to a syringe or a patch , microneedles prevent pain by avoiding contact with nerve endings .
Typically 50 to 2,000 microns in length ( about the depth of a sheet of paper ) and one to 100 microns wide ( about the width of human hair ) , they penetrate the dead , top layer of skin to reach into the second layer—the epidermis—consisting of viable cells and a liquid known as interstitial fluid @ @ @ @ @ @ @ only barely touch the underlying dermis , where the nerve endings lie , along with blood and lymph vessels and connective tissue .
Many microneedle syringe and patch applications are already available for administering vaccines , and many more are in clinical trials for use in treating diabetes , cancer and neuropathic pain .
Because these devices insert drugs directly into the epidermis or dermis , they deliver medicines much more efficiently than familiar transdermal patches , which rely on diffusion through the skin .
This year researchers debuted a novel technique for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ warts and certain types of cancer : mixing star-shaped microneedles into a therapeutic cream or gel .
The needles ' temporary , gentle perforation of the skin enhances passage of the therapeutic agent .
Many microneedle products are moving toward commercialization for rapid , painless draws of blood or interstitial fluid and for use in diagnostic testing or health monitoring .
Tiny holes made by the needles induce a local change in pressure in the epidermis or dermis that forces interstitial fluid or blood into a collection device .
If the needles are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , within minutes , directly measure biological markers indicative of health or disease status , such as glucose , cholesterol , alcohol , drug by-products or immune cells .
Some products would allow the draws to be done at home and mailed to a lab or analyzed on the spot .
At least one product has already cleared regulatory hurdles for such use : the U.S. and Europe recently approved the TAP blood collection device from Seventh Sense Biosystems , which enables laypeople to collect a small sample of blood on their own @ @ @ @ @ @ @ or for self-monitoring .
In research settings , microneedles are also being integrated with wireless communication devices to measure a biological molecule , use the measurement to determine a proper drug dose , and then deliver that dose—an approach that could help realize the promise of personalized medicine .
Microneedle devices could enable testing and treatment to be delivered in underserved areas because they do not require costly equipment or a lot of training to administer .
Micron Biomedical has developed one such easy-to-use device : a bandage-sized patch that anyone can apply @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a microneedle vaccine patch that in animal and early human testing elicited enhanced immune responses using a mere fraction of the usual dose .
Microneedles can also reduce the risk of transmitting blood-borne viruses and decrease hazardous waste from the disposal of conventional needles .
Tiny needles are not always an advantage ; they will not suffice when large doses are needed .
Not all drugs can pass through microneedles , nor can all biomarkers be sampled through them .
More research is needed to understand how factors such as the age and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of injection and the delivery technique influence the effectiveness of microneedle-based technologies .
Still , these painless prickers can be expected to significantly expand drug delivery and diagnostics , and new uses will arise as investigators devise ways to use them in organs beyond the skin .

Barely visible needles, or “microneedles,” are poised to usher in an era of pain-free injections and blood testing. Whether attached to a syringe or a patch, microneedles prevent pain by avoiding contact with nerve endings. Typically 50 to 2,000 microns in length (about the depth of a sheet of paper) and one to 100 microns wide (about the width of human hair), they penetrate the dead, top layer of skin to reach into the second layer—the epidermis—consisting of viable cells and a liquid known as interstitial fluid. But most do not reach or only barely touch the underlying dermis, where the nerve endings lie, along with blood and lymph vessels and connective tissue.
Many microneedle syringe and patch applications are already available for administering vaccines, and many more are in clinical trials for use in treating diabetes, cancer and neuropathic pain. Because these devices insert drugs directly into the epidermis or dermis, they deliver medicines much more efficiently than familiar transdermal patches, which rely on diffusion through the skin. This year researchers debuted a novel technique for treating skin disorders such as psoriasis, warts and certain types of cancer: mixing star-shaped microneedles into a therapeutic cream or gel. The needles' temporary, gentle perforation of the skin enhances passage of the therapeutic agent.
Many microneedle products are moving toward commercialization for rapid, painless draws of blood or interstitial fluid and for use in diagnostic testing or health monitoring. Tiny holes made by the needles induce a local change in pressure in the epidermis or dermis that forces interstitial fluid or blood into a collection device. If the needles are coupled to biosensors, the devices can, within minutes, directly measure biological markers indicative of health or disease status, such as glucose, cholesterol, alcohol, drug by-products or immune cells.
Some products would allow the draws to be done at home and mailed to a lab or analyzed on the spot. At least one product has already cleared regulatory hurdles for such use: the U.S. and Europe recently approved the TAP blood collection device from Seventh Sense Biosystems, which enables laypeople to collect a small sample of blood on their own, whether for sending to a lab or for self-monitoring. In research settings, microneedles are also being integrated with wireless communication devices to measure a biological molecule, use the measurement to determine a proper drug dose, and then deliver that dose—an approach that could help realize the promise of personalized medicine.
Microneedle devices could enable testing and treatment to be delivered in underserved areas because they do not require costly equipment or a lot of training to administer. Micron Biomedical has developed one such easy-to-use device: a bandage-sized patch that anyone can apply. Another company called Vaxxas is developing a microneedle vaccine patch that in animal and early human testing elicited enhanced immune responses using a mere fraction of the usual dose. Microneedles can also reduce the risk of transmitting blood-borne viruses and decrease hazardous waste from the disposal of conventional needles.
Tiny needles are not always an advantage; they will not suffice when large doses are needed. Not all drugs can pass through microneedles, nor can all biomarkers be sampled through them. More research is needed to understand how factors such as the age and weight of the patient, the site of injection and the delivery technique influence the effectiveness of microneedle-based technologies. Still, these painless prickers can be expected to significantly expand drug delivery and diagnostics, and new uses will arise as investigators devise ways to use them in organs beyond the skin.