scientificamerican--2020-12-22--Let's Search for Alien Probes, Not Just Alien Signals

On blind dates , we search for others that resemble us , at least at some level .
This is true in our personal life but even more so on the galactic dating scene , where we have been seeking a companion civilization for a while without success .
While developing our own radio and laser communication over the past seven decades , the Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence ( SETI ) focused on radio or laser signals from outer space—two kinds of electromagnetic “ messenger ” that astronomers use to study the cosmos .
Over the same period , we @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Voyager 1 and 2 , Pioneer 10 and 11 and the New Horizons spacecraft , towards interstellar space .
These could eventually reach alien civilizations , passively announcing our existence .
But in 1960 , at the dawn of the space age , Ronald Bracewell noted in a Nature paper that a physical space probe could also search for technological civilizations across interstellar distances .
SETI should therefore explore this technique as well—a timely notion in the era of multi-messenger astronomy , ushered most recently by the detection of gravitational waves .
This @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ways .
Thanks to data collected by the Kepler space telescope , we now know that about half of all sunlike stars host a rocky Earth-size planet in their habitable zone .
Within this zone , the planet ’ s surface temperature can support liquid water and the chemistry of life .
The famous Drake equation quantifies ( with large uncertainties ) the likelihood of receiving a radio signal from another civilization in our Milky Way galaxy .
But it does not apply to physical probes that might arrive at our doorstep .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ cell phone conversation at the speed of light and the exchange of letters through surface mail .
It also suggests an addendum to the Drake equation : the number of probes in a volume of interstellar space can be expressed as the number of stars times the average number of probes produced per star , N. The nearest star system , Alpha Centauri , contains a close pair of sunlike stars ( A and B ) bound to a more distant dwarf star ( C ) .
This triple star system is about @ @ @ @ @ @ @ could be much closer—at a distance that is smaller by a factor of ( 3N ) 1/3 .
In fact , this probe would be within the Earth-sun separation if civilizations produce on average a quadrillion ( N~1015 ) probes per star over their lifetime .
If each probe weighs a gram , similar to what has been proposed by the Breakthrough Starshot initiative , then the total mass of a quadrillion probes would be comparable to the weight of a kilometer-size asteroid—completely negligible in the planetary mass budget .
Such a meteor @ @ @ @ @ @ @ years , and its size is smaller by a factor of several tens than the Chicxulub K/Pg impactor that killed the dinosaurs about 66 million years ago .
Clearly , the actual number of interstellar probes would depend on the abundance and lifetime of technological civilizations per star , as well as the weight of each probe and the sophistication of its production technology .
My forthcoming book , titled Extraterrestrial , tells the story of the discovery of ` Oumuamua , meaning “ scout ” in the Hawaiian language , by the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
As the first interstellar object detected near Earth from outside the solar system , it looked weird , unlike any comet or asteroid seen before within the solar system .
The book details the unusual properties of ` Oumuamua : it had a flattened shape with extreme proportions—never seen before among comets or asteroids , as well as an unusual initial velocity and a shiny appearance .
It also lacked a cometary tail , but nevertheless exhibited a push away from the sun in excess of the solar gravitational force .
As @ @ @ @ @ @ @ have had to lose about a tenth of its mass in order to experience the excess push by the rocket effect .
Instead , ` Oumuamua showed no carbon-based molecules along its trail , nor jitter or change in its spin period—as expected from cometary jets .
The excess force could be explained if ` Oumuamua was pushed by the pressure of sunlight ; that is , if it is an artificially-made lightsail—a thin relic of the promising technology for space exploration that was proposed as early as 1924 by Friedrich Zander and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
This possibility would imply that ` Oumuamua could be a message in a bottle .
In September 2020 , another unusual “ asteroid ” was discovered by-Pan STARRS , showing an excess push by sunlight without a cometary tail .
This object , labeled by the astronomical name 2020 SO , was not unbound like ` Oumuamua but instead on an Earthlike orbit around the sun .
After integrating its orbit back in time , it was found that 2020 SO is a stray rocket booster , left over from a crash @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the surface of the Moon in 1966 .
Nevertheless , its discovery lends credibility to the notion that thin artificial objects with a large surface-to-mass ratio can be distinguished from natural objects based on their excess push away from the sun without a cometary tail .
There is no way that ` Oumuamua could have originated from our planet based on its high local speed , its large size and the inclination of its trajectory .
Another way to put it is that ` Oumuamua spent a fraction of a year within the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , and we know of no human-made object that was propelled to its trajectory over the year preceding its discovery .
When taking a vacation near a beach , I enjoy studying natural seashells , but on rare occasions I encounter an artificially made plastic bottle .
Similarly , astronomers regularly spot naturally made rocks when monitoring comets or asteroids from the solar system , but perhaps ` Oumuamua represents our first encounter with a plastic bottle , manufactured by an advanced technological civilization .
Lightsails can be designed to weigh a gram @ @ @ @ @ @ @ area , comparable to the area of ` Oumuamua .
Interstellar probes could also maneuver to preferred trajectories that are not drawn from a random distribution .
In particular , it is beneficial to bring them to rest relative to the star they intend to probe .
In that case , the gravitational attraction by the star will pull them straight towards it .
The focusing of their trajectories will enhance their density in the vicinity of the star , allowing more of them to travel through the habitable zone and spy for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ outer envelope of the solar system , such slow-moving probes would be hidden among the numerous icy rocks of the Oort cloud , that are loosely bound to the sun halfway to Alpha Centauri .
If the senders of the probes prefer to remain anonymous , they might choose to deposit them in the galactic parking lot , the so-called local standard of rest , which averages over the random motions of all stars in the vicinity of the sun .
In this neutral frame of reference , it is not possible to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , ` Oumuamua started in that frame before entering the solar system .
The data we gathered on ` Oumuamua are incomplete .
To learn more , we must continue to monitor the sky for similar objects .
The realization that we are not alone will have dramatic implications for our goals on Earth and our aspirations for space .
When reading the news every morning , I can not help but wonder whether we are “ the sharpest cookies in the jar.
” Are there extraterrestrials smarter than us in the Milky @ @ @ @ @ @ @ out is by surveying the sky for the multitude of messengers that they might be using .

On blind dates, we search for others that resemble us, at least at some level. This is true in our personal life but even more so on the galactic dating scene, where we have been seeking a companion civilization for a while without success. While developing our own radio and laser communication over the past seven decades, the Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence (SETI) focused on radio or laser signals from outer space—two kinds of electromagnetic “messenger” that astronomers use to study the cosmos.
Over the same period, we have been also launching probes, like Voyager 1 and 2, Pioneer 10 and 11 and the New Horizons spacecraft, towards interstellar space. These could eventually reach alien civilizations, passively announcing our existence. But in 1960, at the dawn of the space age, Ronald Bracewell noted in a Nature paper that a physical space probe could also search for technological civilizations across interstellar distances. SETI should therefore explore this technique as well—a timely notion in the era of multimessenger astronomy, ushered most recently by the detection of gravitational waves.
This sort of exploration obviously could work both ways. Thanks to data collected by the Kepler space telescope, we now know that about half of all sunlike stars host a rocky Earth-size planet in their habitable zone. Within this zone, the planet’s surface temperature can support liquid water and the chemistry of life. The famous Drake equation quantifies (with large uncertainties) the likelihood of receiving a radio signal from another civilization in our Milky Way galaxy. But it does not apply to physical probes that might arrive at our doorstep. The distinction resembles the difference between a cell phone conversation at the speed of light and the exchange of letters through surface mail.
It also suggests an addendum to the Drake equation: the number of probes in a volume of interstellar space can be expressed as the number of stars times the average number of probes produced per star, N. The nearest star system, Alpha Centauri, contains a close pair of sunlike stars (A and B) bound to a more distant dwarf star (C). This triple star system is about four light years away—but the nearest probe could be much closer—at a distance that is smaller by a factor of (3N)1/3. In fact, this probe would be within the Earth-sun separation if civilizations produce on average a quadrillion (N~1015) probes per star over their lifetime.
If each probe weighs a gram, similar to what has been proposed by the Breakthrough Starshot initiative, then the total mass of a quadrillion probes would be comparable to the weight of a kilometer-size asteroid—completely negligible in the planetary mass budget. Such a meteor strikes the Earth every half a million years, and its size is smaller by a factor of several tens than the Chicxulub K/Pg impactor that killed the dinosaurs about 66 million years ago. Clearly, the actual number of interstellar probes would depend on the abundance and lifetime of technological civilizations per star, as well as the weight of each probe and the sophistication of its production technology.
My forthcoming book, titled Extraterrestrial, tells the story of the discovery of `Oumuamua, meaning “scout” in the Hawaiian language, by the Pan-STARRS facility in Hawaii on October 2017. As the first interstellar object detected near Earth from outside the solar system, it looked weird, unlike any comet or asteroid seen before within the solar system. The book details the unusual properties of `Oumuamua: it had a flattened shape with extreme proportions—never seen before among comets or asteroids, as well as an unusual initial velocity and a shiny appearance. It also lacked a cometary tail, but nevertheless exhibited a push away from the sun in excess of the solar gravitational force.
As a regular comet, `Oumuamua would have had to lose about a tenth of its mass in order to experience the excess push by the rocket effect. Instead, `Oumuamua showed no carbon-based molecules along its trail, nor jitter or change in its spin period—as expected from cometary jets. The excess force could be explained if `Oumuamua was pushed by the pressure of sunlight; that is, if it is an artificially-made lightsail—a thin relic of the promising technology for space exploration that was proposed as early as 1924 by Friedrich Zander and is currently being developed by our civilization. This possibility would imply that `Oumuamua could be a message in a bottle.
In September 2020, another unusual “asteroid” was discovered by-Pan STARRS, showing an excess push by sunlight without a cometary tail. This object, labeled by the astronomical name 2020 SO, was not unbound like `Oumuamua but instead on an Earthlike orbit around the sun. After integrating its orbit back in time, it was found that 2020 SO is a stray rocket booster, left over from a crash of the Surveyor 2 lunar lander on the surface of the Moon in 1966.
Nevertheless, its discovery lends credibility to the notion that thin artificial objects with a large surface-to-mass ratio can be distinguished from natural objects based on their excess push away from the sun without a cometary tail. There is no way that `Oumuamua could have originated from our planet based on its high local speed, its large size and the inclination of its trajectory. Another way to put it is that `Oumuamua spent a fraction of a year within the orbit of the Earth around the sun, and we know of no human-made object that was propelled to its trajectory over the year preceding its discovery.
When taking a vacation near a beach, I enjoy studying natural seashells, but on rare occasions I encounter an artificially made plastic bottle. Similarly, astronomers regularly spot naturally made rocks when monitoring comets or asteroids from the solar system, but perhaps `Oumuamua represents our first encounter with a plastic bottle, manufactured by an advanced technological civilization. Lightsails can be designed to weigh a gram per tens of meters squared of surface area, comparable to the area of `Oumuamua.
Interstellar probes could also maneuver to preferred trajectories that are not drawn from a random distribution. In particular, it is beneficial to bring them to rest relative to the star they intend to probe. In that case, the gravitational attraction by the star will pull them straight towards it. The focusing of their trajectories will enhance their density in the vicinity of the star, allowing more of them to travel through the habitable zone and spy for any technological signatures there. In the outer envelope of the solar system, such slow-moving probes would be hidden among the numerous icy rocks of the Oort cloud, that are loosely bound to the sun halfway to Alpha Centauri.
If the senders of the probes prefer to remain anonymous, they might choose to deposit them in the galactic parking lot, the so-called local standard of rest, which averages over the random motions of all stars in the vicinity of the sun. In this neutral frame of reference, it is not possible to identify where they came from. Surprisingly, `Oumuamua started in that frame before entering the solar system.
The data we gathered on `Oumuamua are incomplete. To learn more, we must continue to monitor the sky for similar objects. The realization that we are not alone will have dramatic implications for our goals on Earth and our aspirations for space. When reading the news every morning, I cannot help but wonder whether we are “the sharpest cookies in the jar.” Are there extraterrestrials smarter than us in the Milky Way? The only way to find out is by surveying the sky for the multitude of messengers that they might be using.


scientificamerican--2020-12-23--The Kaleidoscopic Art of Threatened Corals

Miami vibrates with color and bright nightlife .
And below the surrounding coastal waterline , coral reefs play out their own neon dramas that rival those of the city .
Making these similarities obvious to the public is the aim of the art duo called Coral Morphologic .
Musician J. D. McKay and marine biologist Colin Foord collaborate and use footage of coral from Florida and around the world in video , multimedia and art installations .
Their goal is to help viewers appreciate and want to protect this vital underwater ecosystem .
The duo ’ s brilliantly hued work @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
No , really : Coral Morphologic has projected images of fluorescent red and green polyps over entire buildings in Miami .
In recent years , coral surrounding Miami has begun growing on local seawalls , and Coral Morphologic hopes this is a sign of the creatures ’ resilience in the face of changing ocean conditions .
These pioneering corals “ may hold the keys to understanding how reef organisms worldwide may adapt to human influence in the 21st century , ” the collaborators share in a statement .
If corals can find @ @ @ @ @ @ @ changing Miami coastline , then where else might they manage to persist ?
Corals eat more than just microscopic creatures called zooplankton .
Here , a Fungia coral in the Indo-Pacific sneaks its mouth around a fish head .
Other members of the genus in the Red Sea have been spotted dining on jellyfish half their size .
The mouth of a Cycloseris coral found in an Indo-Pacific reef .
Meals disappear into the gastrovascular cavity , which is also where the equivalent of digestive cells empty their waste .
A close-up of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in the Indo-Pacific..
Many of these coral varieties grow like a carpet coating rocky surfaces on a reef .
The tactic makes the Echinophyllia less susceptible to storm damage compared to their vertical , branching relatives .
Neither jellyfish , coral or anemone , this organism , known as a corallimorph , is one of the lesser-known members of the Cnidaria phylum and shown here in a fluorescence photo .
In 2007 , researchers found a particular corallimorph smothering reefs at Palmyra Atoll National Wildlife Refuge , possibly attracted by the degrading iron @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Ricordea florida , the species shown here , has been the victim of illegal wildlife harvesting in both Florida and Puerto Rico .
A Phymanthus crucifer anemone , which could be found attached to a reef around Florida , unfurls its tentacles .
Each tendril is lined with special cells that launch piercing or adhesive bits into passing prey .
The mouth of a corallimorph known as Ricordea yuma , found in the Indo-Pacific .
Corallimorphs can ’ t build their own exoskeletons , but are closely related to corals that can .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ the two cnidarian varieties evolved differently on this crucial trait .
An astreoides coral .
This variety belongs to a larger group of “ stony ” corals , meaning each polyp pushes out calcium carbonate to create a durable underlying structure .
The compound is otherwise known as limestone , and constitutes each Florida Keys island—meaning human residents live atop long-dead coral reefs .
If it took you a minute to distinguish the seahorse from the coral , that ’ s exactly the effect the pregnant male was going for .
These centimeter-long @ @ @ @ @ @ @ fan corals .

Miami vibrates with color and bright nightlife. And below the surrounding coastal waterline, coral reefs play out their own neon dramas that rival those of the city. Making these similarities obvious to the public is the aim of the art duo called Coral Morphologic. Musician J. D. McKay and marine biologist Colin Foord collaborate and use footage of coral from Florida and around the world in video, multimedia and art installations. Their goal is to help viewers appreciate and want to protect this vital underwater ecosystem. The duo’s brilliantly hued work has appeared inside and on exhibit halls. No, really: Coral Morphologic has projected images of fluorescent red and green polyps over entire buildings in Miami.
In recent years, coral surrounding Miami has begun growing on local seawalls, and Coral Morphologic hopes this is a sign of the creatures’ resilience in the face of changing ocean conditions. These pioneering corals “may hold the keys to understanding how reef organisms worldwide may adapt to human influence in the 21st century,” the collaborators share in a statement. If corals can find a way to thrive on the rapidly changing Miami coastline, then where else might they manage to persist?
Credit: Coral Morphologic
Corals eat more than just microscopic creatures called zooplankton. Here, a Fungia coral in the Indo-Pacific sneaks its mouth around a fish head. Other members of the genus in the Red Sea have been spotted dining on jellyfish half their size.
Credit: Coral Morphologic
The mouth of a Cycloseris coral found in an Indo-Pacific reef. Meals disappear into the gastrovascular cavity, which is also where the equivalent of digestive cells empty their waste.
Credit: Coral Morphologic
A close-up of coral belonging to the Echinophyllia genus found in the Indo-Pacific.. Many of these coral varieties grow like a carpet coating rocky surfaces on a reef. The tactic makes the Echinophyllia less susceptible to storm damage compared to their vertical, branching relatives.
Credit: Coral Morphologic
Neither jellyfish, coral or anemone, this organism, known as a corallimorph, is one of the lesser-known members of the Cnidaria phylum and shown here in a fluorescence photo. In 2007, researchers found a particular corallimorph smothering reefs at Palmyra Atoll National Wildlife Refuge, possibly attracted by the degrading iron from buoys and a nearby shipwreck.
Credit: Coral Morphologic
Ricordea florida, the species shown here, has been the victim of illegal wildlife harvesting in both Florida and Puerto Rico.
A Phymanthus crucifer anemone, which could be found attached to a reef around Florida, unfurls its tentacles. Each tendril is lined with special cells that launch piercing or adhesive bits into passing prey.
Credit: Coral Morphologic
The mouth of a corallimorph known as Ricordea yuma, found in the Indo-Pacific. Corallimorphs can’t build their own exoskeletons, but are closely related to corals that can. Scientists are struggling to figure out why the two cnidarian varieties evolved differently on this crucial trait.
Credit: Coral Morphologic
An astreoides coral. This variety belongs to a larger group of “stony” corals, meaning each polyp pushes out calcium carbonate to create a durable underlying structure. The compound is otherwise known as limestone, and constitutes each Florida Keys island—meaning human residents live atop long-dead coral reefs.
Credit: Coral Morphologic
If it took you a minute to distinguish the seahorse from the coral, that’s exactly the effect the pregnant male was going for. These centimeter-long Pygmy seahorses live exclusively amongst gorgonian sea fan corals.
Science in Images


scientificamerican--2020-12-23--Poem: We Need the Sky

Poem: We Need the Sky

That we need the sky to tell us we don ’ t matter is why , before totality , we are so giddy and akimbo .
In its random masking , how shall the Sun disclose its other light ?
( We ’ ve not seen before . )
And strange air , dark and gray and silver and soft and very precise , emerges to pool around every pore and shiver of skin .
Beneath our breathy hollers , a river runs dark , sprays of pebble -leaping riffles instantly aloft : Corona crowns the south : Hole edged @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is metaphor but secular alchemy ?
Black flat sphere five degrees off the ecliptic else each month we ’ d see totality , normal as a door , common as a starling .
Above the Little Lost River , above the valley and its ranges , above thrall , dumb totality .
And the Moon slips away , unseen , three millimeters monthly and so on etcetera till its visage will shirk this scene .
Orbits bloat .
Eclipses are happenstance .
Like us , they ’ ll go extinct , the Moon @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ring around a dead Earth .
But , ah , among the living : Crickets at noon and humans hooting with an owl , looking for a gopher or at the light around the Moon : Pink crust of flares like fire mountains , like sleep to rub from the Cyclops ’ s eye before his hot day at the forge .
There is light around the Moon : White corona , a hand of streaming cilia that warns and beckons .
The rim brightens , and fact makes terror wonderful .

Edited by Dava Sobel
That we need the sky
to tell us we don’t matter
is why, before totality,
we are so giddy and akimbo.
In its random masking,
how shall the Sun disclose its other light?
(We’ve not seen before.) And strange
air, dark and gray and silver
and soft and very precise,
emerges to pool around every
pore and shiver of skin.
Beneath our breathy hollers,
a river runs dark, sprays of pebble
-leaping riffles instantly aloft: Corona
crowns the south: Hole edged
with brimming sprays of light!
What is metaphor but secular alchemy?
Black flat sphere five degrees off the ecliptic
else each month we’d see
totality, normal as a door,
common as a starling.
Above the Little Lost River,
above the valley and its ranges,
above thrall, dumb totality.
And the Moon slips away, unseen, three
millimeters monthly and so on
etcetera till its visage will shirk this scene.
Orbits bloat. Eclipses are happenstance. Like us,
they’ll go extinct, the Moon to be
debris someday, a lovely
ring around a dead Earth.
But, ah, among the living: Crickets
at noon and humans hooting
with an owl, looking for
a gopher or at the light around the Moon:
Pink crust of flares like fire mountains,
like sleep to rub from the Cyclops’s eye
before his hot day at the forge. There is
light around the Moon: White
corona, a hand of streaming cilia
that warns and beckons. The rim brightens,
and fact makes terror wonderful.


scientificamerican--2020-12-23--Tsunami May Have Seeded a Fungal Outbreak in Pacific Northwest

The great Alaska earthquake lasted four minutes and 38 seconds when it struck on March 27 , 1964 .
The outbreak it may have seeded wouldn ’ t strike for another 35 years .
In 2013 , I wrote in Scientific American about a subtropical fungus called Cryptococcus gattii that appeared unexpectedly in 1999 in the lungs of hundreds of humans , pets and porpoises in the Pacific Northwest .
Although rare , it could be picked up from something as simple as a walk in the woods and prove fatal in otherwise healthy individuals .
One of the most @ @ @ @ @ @ @ gattii story was that what appeared to be one outbreak was actually at least two and maybe three .
Two unrelated strains of C. gattii appeared around 1999 on Vancouver Island , while a third emerged six years later in Oregon ’ s Willamette Valley .
Today we know the three are so different they may be separate species .
At the time , experts were puzzled about the origins of all .
Many ideas were floated , including chance introduction by wind , ocean , animals , eucalyptus trees , tires , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ agreed that the fungi seemed to have made their way to the Pacific Northwest many decades prior , and some subsequent disturbance—perhaps climate change—generated a burst of infections .
Now David Engelthaler and Arturo Casadevall , infectious disease scientists at the Translational Genomics Research Institute in Flagstaff and Johns Hopkins University ( I interviewed Casadevall for my 2013 story ) , have suggested a surprising hypothesis : that the fungi not only hitchhiked on ships from South America to the Pacific Northwest , but then surfed a tsunami to reach land .
Y @ @ @ @ @ @ @ strike mammals for another 35 years ?
Describing their hypothesis in the journal mBio last year , the pair stitch together a circumstantial case .
DNA analyses of all three fungi suggest a burst of evolution when they arrived in the Pacific Northwest around 70 to 90 years ago , hinting at a common origin .
One candidate for that origin , Engelthaler and Casadevall suggest , is the 1914 opening of the Panama Canal .
Empty cargo ships pump water into their hull as stabilizing ballast .
The water—and any hitchhiking life—is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Cryptococcus species survive in seawater , and C. gattii can survive for at least a year .
The burst of shipping through the new canal may have brought C. gattii repeatedly from a place like Brazil to the waters off Seattle , Portland and Vancouver .
If so , the fungus still needed to make it on to land .
The 1964 earthquake—which generated a tsunami so large it killed people on beaches as far south as California—seems like it could have done the job , they say .
Natural disasters are well-documented @ @ @ @ @ @ @ infections followed the 2011 Joplin , Mo.
, tornado , as I documented here .
The 1994 Northridge earthquake in California sparked a mini-outbreak of Valley fever , another inhaled fungal disease .
People roughed up by tsunami waves may go on to suffer invasive skin and lung infections , a condition called “ tsunami lung , ” and such waterborne infections from ocean flooding occurred after both the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami and the 2011 Japanese tsunami .
A survivor of the 2004 tsunami even suffered a skin infection from C. gattii @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a pathogen to a new place , resulting in the outbreak of a new disease decades later ?
Several lines of evidence suggest so , the pair argue .
The forests and soils most heavily contaminated with C. gattii in the Pacific Northwest are those most affected by the tsunami : low-lying and close to the ocean .
One exception—the area around Port Alberni in interior Vancouver Island—was nonetheless hard hit by the tsunami .
A surge of water traveled down an inlet where it reached 26 feet high and washed away 55 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ abundantly there , even though the town is relatively far from the coast .
The genetic data also reveal a second burst of evolution midcentury followed by another period of stability .
After decades at sea , newly marooned fungi may have been forced to evolve quickly to survive in a place not only vastly different from the ocean but also dissimilar to their original home .
Wild amoebas—amorphous single-celled microbes—prey on C. gattii .
Learning to outsmart their new North American predators may have taken several decades .
It may also have @ @ @ @ @ @ @ amoeba-like immune cells called macrophages that travel our bodies doing essentially the same thing .
This learning period could explain the decades-long delay between the tsunami and outbreak , Engelthaler and Casadevall suggest .
The earliest known case of Pacific Northwest C. gattii occurred in 1971 in Seattle .
Nothing else is known about this case , but the tsunami hypothesis would help explain this outlier , since the fungi would have already been ashore for several years .
Other scattered infections may have occurred between 1971 and 1999 and simply escaped detection @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in hosts .
Finally , and perhaps most importantly , this hypothesis would help account for both the potpourri of apparently unrelated C. gattii in the Pacific Northwest and their varied emergence times .
If several strains had established themselves in the ocean as a result of years of shipping , the tsunami could have washed them ashore simultaneously across hundreds of miles of coast .
The corollary , of course , is that there could be still more “ surprises ” in store for us , ones perhaps even more efficient at @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in the Pacific Northwest and in ports and nearby land unaffected by tsunamis could help support or refute their hypothesis and would be relatively easy to do , they suggest .
The mBio paper was published in October 2019 , but it has implications for subsequent events .
Engelthaler and Casadevall propose the Pacific Northwest C. gattii outbreak may be a “ black swan ” : an unpredictable event of extreme consequence .
Indeed , it may be that many or even most outbreaks defy prediction .
The 2014 outbreak of Ebola in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ conditions , many scientists believe , but the actual cause was the chance meeting of a group of sick migratory bats with children playing in a hollow tree .
No one predicted that a flu pandemic would start in Mexico , but that happened in 2009 .
Similarly unexpected and unpredicted were the appearance of HIV , the SARS-CoV-1 and MERS coronaviruses , the Nipa and Hendra viruses and the monkeypox virus in the United States ; the suddenly severe prenatal effects of Zika virus and the recent polio-like attacks in children suspected @ @ @ @ @ @ @ enterovirus D68 were also unforeseen , as was the appearance of C. Gattii in the temperate zone .
Our present predicament is probably the biggest swan since the 1918 flu pandemic , which itself may have originated unexpectedly in Kansas .
Huge amounts of money , computing power and investigation resources have been thrown at the problem of predicting outbreaks of new disease .
Those efforts failed us spectacularly this year .
Financial philosopher Nassim Taleb , who coined the term black swan , argues that the proper response to such events is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ it ’ s to prepare for them .
Although , in my view , it ’ s worthwhile to plumb their origins so we can try to avert future disasters ( outlawing and aggressively prosecuting the sale of wildlife and reducing deforestation seem like obvious and humane choices ) , governments should just assume pandemics and outbreaks are inevitable and take appropriate action .
It ’ s not as though we don ’ t have precedent for expensive , defensive investments .
In California , city planners and engineers know giant earthquakes will @ @ @ @ @ @ @ worry too much about the particulars .
After all , even after a century or more of studying Golden State seismology and geology , the destructive 1994 Northridge earthquake occurred on a fault that didn ’ t even appear on seismic maps .
Instead , they simply build accordingly .

The great Alaska earthquake lasted four minutes and 38 seconds when it struck on March 27, 1964. The outbreak it may have seeded wouldn’t strike for another 35 years.
In 2013, I wrote in Scientific American about a subtropical fungus called Cryptococcus gattii that appeared unexpectedly in 1999 in the lungs of hundreds of humans, pets and porpoises in the Pacific Northwest. Although rare, it could be picked up from something as simple as a walk in the woods and prove fatal in otherwise healthy individuals.
One of the most surprising and puzzling twists of the C. gattii story was that what appeared to be one outbreak was actually at least two and maybe three. Two unrelated strains of C. gattii appeared around 1999 on Vancouver Island, while a third emerged six years later in Oregon’s Willamette Valley. Today we know the three are so different they may be separate species. At the time, experts were puzzled about the origins of all.
Many ideas were floated, including chance introduction by wind, ocean, animals, eucalyptus trees, tires, crates or tennis shoes. Most scientists agreed that the fungi seemed to have made their way to the Pacific Northwest many decades prior, and some subsequent disturbance—perhaps climate change—generated a burst of infections.
Now David Engelthaler and Arturo Casadevall, infectious disease scientists at the Translational Genomics Research Institute in Flagstaff and Johns Hopkins University (I interviewed Casadevall for my 2013 story), have suggested a surprising hypothesis: that the fungi not only hitchhiked on ships from South America to the Pacific Northwest, but then surfed a tsunami to reach land. If so, why would infections not strike mammals for another 35 years?
Describing their hypothesis in the journal mBio last year, the pair stitch together a circumstantial case. DNA analyses of all three fungi suggest a burst of evolution when they arrived in the Pacific Northwest around 70 to 90 years ago, hinting at a common origin.
One candidate for that origin, Engelthaler and Casadevall suggest, is the 1914 opening of the Panama Canal. Empty cargo ships pump water into their hull as stabilizing ballast. The water—and any hitchhiking life—is often dumped in the next port. Cryptococcus species survive in seawater, and C. gattii can survive for at least a year. The burst of shipping through the new canal may have brought C. gattii repeatedly from a place like Brazil to the waters off Seattle, Portland and Vancouver.
If so, the fungus still needed to make it on to land. The 1964 earthquake—which generated a tsunami so large it killed people on beaches as far south as California—seems like it could have done the job, they say.
Natural disasters are well-documented vectors. A burst of fungal lung infections followed the 2011 Joplin, Mo., tornado, as I documented here. The 1994 Northridge earthquake in California sparked a mini-outbreak of Valley fever, another inhaled fungal disease. People roughed up by tsunami waves may go on to suffer invasive skin and lung infections, a condition called “tsunami lung,” and such waterborne infections from ocean flooding occurred after both the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami and the 2011 Japanese tsunami. A survivor of the 2004 tsunami even suffered a skin infection from C. gattii.
But could a natural disaster introduce a pathogen to a new place, resulting in the outbreak of a new disease decades later?
Several lines of evidence suggest so, the pair argue. The forests and soils most heavily contaminated with C. gattii in the Pacific Northwest are those most affected by the tsunami: low-lying and close to the ocean. One exception—the area around Port Alberni in interior Vancouver Island—was nonetheless hard hit by the tsunami. A surge of water traveled down an inlet where it reached 26 feet high and washed away 55 homes. Today the fungus is found abundantly there, even though the town is relatively far from the coast.
The genetic data also reveal a second burst of evolution midcentury followed by another period of stability. After decades at sea, newly marooned fungi may have been forced to evolve quickly to survive in a place not only vastly different from the ocean but also dissimilar to their original home. Wild amoebas—amorphous single-celled microbes—prey on C. gattii. Learning to outsmart their new North American predators may have taken several decades. It may also have inadvertently trained the fungi to evade the amoeba-like immune cells called macrophages that travel our bodies doing essentially the same thing. This learning period could explain the decades-long delay between the tsunami and outbreak, Engelthaler and Casadevall suggest.
The earliest known case of Pacific Northwest C. gattii occurred in 1971 in Seattle. Nothing else is known about this case, but the tsunami hypothesis would help explain this outlier, since the fungi would have already been ashore for several years. Other scattered infections may have occurred between 1971 and 1999 and simply escaped detection, as the Cryptococcus can go dormant in hosts.
Finally, and perhaps most importantly, this hypothesis would help account for both the potpourri of apparently unrelated C. gattii in the Pacific Northwest and their varied emergence times. If several strains had established themselves in the ocean as a result of years of shipping, the tsunami could have washed them ashore simultaneously across hundreds of miles of coast. The corollary, of course, is that there could be still more “surprises” in store for us, ones perhaps even more efficient at attacking mammals. Further environmental testing both in the Pacific Northwest and in ports and nearby land unaffected by tsunamis could help support or refute their hypothesis and would be relatively easy to do, they suggest.
The mBio paper was published in October 2019, but it has implications for subsequent events. Engelthaler and Casadevall propose the Pacific Northwest C. gattii outbreak may be a “black swan”: an unpredictable event of extreme consequence. Indeed, it may be that many or even most outbreaks defy prediction.
The 2014 outbreak of Ebola in West Africa was probably inevitable given the conditions, many scientists believe, but the actual cause was the chance meeting of a group of sick migratory bats with children playing in a hollow tree. No one predicted that a flu pandemic would start in Mexico, but that happened in 2009. Similarly unexpected and unpredicted were the appearance of HIV, the SARS-CoV-1 and MERS coronaviruses, the Nipa and Hendra viruses and the monkeypox virus in the United States; the suddenly severe prenatal effects of Zika virus and the recent polio-like attacks in children suspected to be caused by a previously benign enterovirus D68 were also unforeseen, as was the appearance of C. Gattii in the temperate zone. Our present predicament is probably the biggest swan since the 1918 flu pandemic, which itself may have originated unexpectedly in Kansas.
Huge amounts of money, computing power and investigation resources have been thrown at the problem of predicting outbreaks of new disease. Those efforts failed us spectacularly this year. Financial philosopher Nassim Taleb, who coined the term black swan, argues that the proper response to such events is not to try to predict them; it’s to prepare for them. Although, in my view, it’s worthwhile to plumb their origins so we can try to avert future disasters (outlawing and aggressively prosecuting the sale of wildlife and reducing deforestation seem like obvious and humane choices), governments should just assume pandemics and outbreaks are inevitable and take appropriate action.
It’s not as though we don’t have precedent for expensive, defensive investments. In California, city planners and engineers know giant earthquakes will strike, but they don’t worry too much about the particulars. After all, even after a century or more of studying Golden State seismology and geology, the destructive 1994 Northridge earthquake occurred on a fault that didn’t even appear on seismic maps. Instead, they simply build accordingly.


scientificamerican--2020-12-23--Rotating Sails Help to Revive Wind-Powered Shipping

In 1926 a cargo ship called the Buckau crossed the Atlantic sporting what looked like two tall smokestacks .
But these towering cylinders were actually drawing power from the wind .
Called Flettner rotors , they were a surprising new invention by German engineer Anton Flettner ( covered at the time in Scientific American ) .
When the wind was perpendicular to the ship 's course , a motor spun the cylinders so their forward-facing sides turned in the same direction as the wind ; this movement made air move faster across the front surface and slower behind , creating @ @ @ @ @ @ @ forward .
The rotating sails provided a net energy gain—but before they could be widely adopted the Great Depression struck , followed by World War II .
Like the electric car , the Flettner rotor would be abandoned for almost a century in favor of burning fossil fuel .
Now , with shippers under renewed pressure to cut both costs and carbon emissions , the concept is getting another shot .
In one notable example , the 12,000-gross-ton cargo vessel SC Connector is adding 35-meter Flettner rotors that can tilt to near horizontal @ @ @ @ @ @ @ power lines .
The new rotors need electrical power to spin , but manufacturer Norsepower says they can still save up to 20 percent on fuel consumption and cut emissions by 25 percent .
The SC Connector is one of a growing series of rotor-boosted ships expected to be operating in various parts of the world by year 's end , according to SSPA , a Sweden-based nonprofit research institute .
Shipbuilders are also incorporating other wind-propulsion technologies , such as kite-style sails .
But Flettner rotors are getting the earliest adoption , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ who leads an SSPA team studying their performance .
Ships can easily be retrofitted , literally overnight , with rotors activated by an on/off switch .
“ It 's a quite simple solution , understandable and safe , ” Werner says .
“ It 's also very visible , which is good for marketing.
” The United Nations International Maritime Organization has set ambitious decarbonization goals involving marine fuels , and the European Union is now funding rotor research .
Climate pressures and easy installation make wind-power systems an attractive option , according @ @ @ @ @ @ @ A lot of people wanted to see wind dead [ in the 1920s ] because they were making a lot of money off fuel , ” says Gavin Allwright , the organization 's secretary-general .
“ That 's still true today .
I ca n't sell you a unit of wind .
What I am bullish about is that where we 've got a major decarbonization issue , [ alternative fuels ] have great potential but are five to 10 years from being proven out .
Wind , we could put on a @ @ @ @

In 1926 a cargo ship called the Buckau crossed the Atlantic sporting what looked like two tall smokestacks. But these towering cylinders were actually drawing power from the wind. Called Flettner rotors, they were a surprising new invention by German engineer Anton Flettner (covered at the time in Scientific American). When the wind was perpendicular to the ship's course, a motor spun the cylinders so their forward-facing sides turned in the same direction as the wind; this movement made air move faster across the front surface and slower behind, creating a pressure difference and pulling the ship forward. The rotating sails provided a net energy gain—but before they could be widely adopted the Great Depression struck, followed by World War II. Like the electric car, the Flettner rotor would be abandoned for almost a century in favor of burning fossil fuel.
Now, with shippers under renewed pressure to cut both costs and carbon emissions, the concept is getting another shot. In one notable example, the 12,000-gross-ton cargo vessel SC Connector is adding 35-meter Flettner rotors that can tilt to near horizontal when the ship passes under bridges or power lines. The new rotors need electrical power to spin, but manufacturer Norsepower says they can still save up to 20 percent on fuel consumption and cut emissions by 25 percent.
The SC Connector is one of a growing series of rotor-boosted ships expected to be operating in various parts of the world by year's end, according to SSPA, a Sweden-based nonprofit research institute. Shipbuilders are also incorporating other wind-propulsion technologies, such as kite-style sails. But Flettner rotors are getting the earliest adoption, says Sofia Werner, a naval architect who leads an SSPA team studying their performance. Ships can easily be retrofitted, literally overnight, with rotors activated by an on/off switch. “It's a quite simple solution, understandable and safe,” Werner says. “It's also very visible, which is good for marketing.”
The United Nations International Maritime Organization has set ambitious decarbonization goals involving marine fuels, and the European Union is now funding rotor research. Climate pressures and easy installation make wind-power systems an attractive option, according to the International Windship Association. “A lot of people wanted to see wind dead [in the 1920s] because they were making a lot of money off fuel,” says Gavin Allwright, the organization's secretary-general. “That's still true today. I can't sell you a unit of wind. What I am bullish about is that where we've got a major decarbonization issue, [alternative fuels] have great potential but are five to 10 years from being proven out. Wind, we could put on a vessel today.”


scientificamerican--2020-12-22--Congress Passes Major Climate Legislation in Year-End Omnibus

Lawmakers agreed last night to phase down hydrofluorocarbons ( HFCs ) , the most significant congressional action on climate change in years and a head start for President-elect Joe Biden ’ s plans to slash greenhouse gas emissions across the economy .
The emission phase-down bill was tucked into the 5,593-page year-end omnibus , which also included a long-anticipated $ 35 billion energy innovation authorization bill , extensions of key tax credits for renewable energy and bipartisan legislation to boost carbon capture .
The broader package sets the stage at the Department of Energy for Biden , who has emphasized @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
But environmental groups and climate advocates say the HFC deal is a particularly important step that will allow the Biden EPA to immediately begin implementing a regulatory policy that experts say could help avoid half a degree Celsius in warming .
“ From a climate protection point of view it ’ s a very big deal , '' said David Doniger , senior strategic director for the Natural Resources Defense Council ’ s climate and clean energy program .
“ HFCs are growing fast , especially in other parts of the world @ @ @ @ @ @ @ grow unregulated , the projections are that you would see an extra 70 billion [ metric ] tons of CO equivalent by 2050 , '' he added .
The bill , originally introduced as the “ American Innovation and Manufacturing ( AIM ) Act , ” was years in the making .
HFCs , which were introduced as replacements for ozone-depleting refrigerants , have thousands of times the heat-trapping potential of carbon dioxide , and some environmental groups have been talking about phasing them out for more than a decade .
The Obama @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Protocol—in 2016 , but since then , the issue has been in limbo .
A federal court in 2017 struck down EPA ’ s first attempt to ramp down HFCs using Clean Air Act authority , and the Trump administration has refused to send Kigali to the Senate for ratification amid opposition from conservatives , even as it went into effect in the rest of the world .
Even as the “ AIM Act ” built up a bipartisan group of sponsors on Capitol Hill , with environmental @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in Republicans , it derailed negotiation on the energy innovation package earlier this year .
But Sens .
Tom Carper ( D-Del . )
and John Kennedy ( R-La . )
, the bill ’ s lead sponsors , struck a deal with Environment and Public Works Chairman John Barrasso ( R-Wyo . )
in September that eventually cleared it to be tacked onto the omnibus .
The final compromise language would phase down production and consumption of HFCs 85 % by 2036 , with a narrow clause preempting new state regulations for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ five years should replacements for certain applications not become widely available .
State preemption was a sticking point in negotiations for Barrasso and other Republicans , who wanted language to ensure consistent national implementation of HFC regulations and to protect uses of HFCs for which there are no current substitutes .
“ My hope is it ’ ll serve as a source of encouragement for other Democrats and Republicans , maybe an independent or two , to take other steps as we come back in the new year with a new administration and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on the floor last night .
Barrasso , meanwhile , noted that bear spray and defense product manufacturers in his home state will be able to continue using HFCs .
“ The end result is clean air and clear rules , ” Barrasso said on the floor .
“ We need both of those.
” Observers expect implementation of the law to go smoothly , given that EPA has experience phasing out chlorofluorocarbons ( CFCs ) and hydrochlorofluorocarbons ( HCFCs ) , the ozone-depleting chemicals that HFCs were originally designed to replace under @ @ @ @ @ @ @ it might take a smidge longer than we would have anticipated just because of the administration transitioning and getting a new administrator in place and all the political appointees in place and everybody in the building , ” said Samantha Slater , vice president of government affairs for the Air-Conditioning , Heating and Refrigeration Institute .
But EPA was also intimately involved as the bill was negotiated , Slater said , offering testimony and responding to questions from staff attempting to work out kinks , which could smooth implementation .
For the companies @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is that the law will “ slow down or end ” the patchwork of HFC laws enacted by states in recent years , she added .
“ I believe our industry is ready to go whenever EPA is , and I think the only thing that might slow things down a bit is just the official transition and the timing of all that , ” Slater said .
Attaching the bill to the omnibus package means President Trump , who has declared climate change a hoax , will likely sign it into law @ @ @ @ @ @ @ territory for Biden next year .
Biden pledged on the campaign trail to “ embrace ” Kigali as part of his climate plan , and Doniger said he expects the administration to send it to the Senate early next year .
More than a dozen Senate Republicans sent a letter to Trump in 2018 asking him to send Kigali for ratification , which suggests there could be 60 votes for the treaty , even with a closely divided Senate after the Georgia runoffs next month .
Republicans , however , have long been @ @ @ @ @ @ @ if the original Montreal Protocol was ratified without opposition at the recommendation of President Reagan .
And even with conservatives like Barrasso supporting the HFC phase-down bill , there remains a current of opposition on the right .
Steve Milloy , a lawyer and climate change denier who served on Trump ’ s EPA transition team , yesterday called the HFC bill “ climate communism ” and urged the president to veto the entire package in protest .
Conservative groups like the Competitive Enterprise Institute have long argued a phase-down would be anti-consumer @ @ @ @ @ @ @ large companies like Honeywell International Inc. and Chemours Co. that manufacture HFC replacements .
“ Senators and Representatives must be hoping Americans celebrating the holidays don ’ t notice that phasing out common refrigerants will benefit two corporations at the expense of consumers , ” Myron Ebell , director of CEI ’ s Center for Energy and Environment , said in a statement yesterday .
Still , industry has succeeded in selling Republicans on the idea by pitching it as a jobs creator , with American companies hoping to lead the way in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ instance , said yesterday that the HFC phase-down would “ create thousands of jobs , save billions of dollars and safeguard the environment.
” Chemical manufacturers and environmental groups say there will be little cost for consumers over the course of the 15-year phase-down .
Previous phaseouts of ozone-depleting chemicals under the Montreal Protocol suggest that replacements will be widely available in short order , Doniger said .
“ We anticipate that like in the case of CFCs and HCFCs , everything will go faster than the original schedule , ” he said @ @ @ @ @ @ @ measure also includes multiple other provisions that would curb emissions and boost the development of cleaner power sources .
Those include a modest tax title that would modify the phase-down agreement for the renewable production and investment tax credits .
The PTC would get another year under the deal , while the ITC would get two more years .
Additionally , the deal would extend for two years the 45Q carbon capture credit and would make permanent a key incentive for energy efficiency ( E & E Daily , Dec. 21 ) .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ , as well as the option of temporarily receiving direct payments for the breaks , but those fights will have to wait for another day .
In addition , the omnibus includes an innovation-focused research and development measure cobbled together from provisions from the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee and a House-passed clean energy package .
The resulting deal “ will foster innovation across the board on a range of technologies that are critical to our energy and national security , our long-term economic competitiveness , and the protection of our environment @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Lisa Murkowski ( R-Alaska ) said in a statement yesterday .
ENR Committee ranking member Joe Manchin ( D-W.Va. ) noted that the rare bicameral energy agreement “ provides a down payment on the technologies that will be critical to reducing greenhouse gas emissions in the power sector , industry and buildings and addressing climate change.
” Some progressive advocacy groups decried the inclusion of provisions to boost nuclear power as well as the `` Utilizing Significant Emissions With Innovative Technologies ( USE IT ) Act , ” S. 383 , to promote @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the end-of-year bill won praise from other advocacy groups .
The energy package “ sets the stage for the Biden administration to hit the ground running in 2021 , '' said Lindsey Walter , a senior policy adviser for the Climate and Energy Program at Third Way .
“ The innovation provisions , the demonstration programs , the clean energy research and development programs—all of that is going to set us up to build and innovate the clean energy technologies that we need in order to actually implement the Biden climate plan , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is absolutely a huge down payment towards larger climate and clean energy legislation that we ’ ll likely see under a Biden administration.
” Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer ( D-N.Y. ) pledged yesterday to “ deliver bold climate action ” with Biden in the White House .
“ Let ’ s be clear : are these provisions enough to meet the demands of the science ?
No , ” Schumer said in a statement .
“ But are they a significant step in the right direction ?
Yes.
” Reprinted from Climatewire @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
E & E provides daily coverage of essential energy and environmental news at www.eenews.net .

Lawmakers agreed last night to phase down hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), the most significant congressional action on climate change in years and a head start for President-elect Joe Biden’s plans to slash greenhouse gas emissions across the economy.
The emission phase-down bill was tucked into the 5,593-page year-end omnibus, which also included a long-anticipated $35 billion energy innovation authorization bill, extensions of key tax credits for renewable energy and bipartisan legislation to boost carbon capture.
The broader package sets the stage at the Department of Energy for Biden, who has emphasized clean energy innovation in his climate plans.
But environmental groups and climate advocates say the HFC deal is a particularly important step that will allow the Biden EPA to immediately begin implementing a regulatory policy that experts say could help avoid half a degree Celsius in warming.
“From a climate protection point of view it’s a very big deal," said David Doniger, senior strategic director for the Natural Resources Defense Council’s climate and clean energy program.
“HFCs are growing fast, especially in other parts of the world, and if they were left to grow unregulated, the projections are that you would see an extra 70 billion [metric] tons of CO 2 equivalent by 2050," he added.
The bill, originally introduced as the “American Innovation and Manufacturing (AIM) Act,” was years in the making.
HFCs, which were introduced as replacements for ozone-depleting refrigerants, have thousands of times the heat-trapping potential of carbon dioxide, and some environmental groups have been talking about phasing them out for more than a decade.
The Obama administration negotiated an international phase-down of HFCs—the Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Protocol—in 2016, but since then, the issue has been in limbo.
A federal court in 2017 struck down EPA’s first attempt to ramp down HFCs using Clean Air Act authority, and the Trump administration has refused to send Kigali to the Senate for ratification amid opposition from conservatives, even as it went into effect in the rest of the world.
Even as the “AIM Act” built up a bipartisan group of sponsors on Capitol Hill, with environmental groups drawing Democrats and industry support pulling in Republicans, it derailed negotiation on the energy innovation package earlier this year.
But Sens. Tom Carper (D-Del.) and John Kennedy (R-La.), the bill’s lead sponsors, struck a deal with Environment and Public Works Chairman John Barrasso (R-Wyo.) in September that eventually cleared it to be tacked onto the omnibus.
The final compromise language would phase down production and consumption of HFCs 85% by 2036, with a narrow clause preempting new state regulations for certain uses of HFCs for at least five years should replacements for certain applications not become widely available.
State preemption was a sticking point in negotiations for Barrasso and other Republicans, who wanted language to ensure consistent national implementation of HFC regulations and to protect uses of HFCs for which there are no current substitutes.
“My hope is it’ll serve as a source of encouragement for other Democrats and Republicans, maybe an independent or two, to take other steps as we come back in the new year with a new administration and make further progress,” Carper said on the floor last night.
Barrasso, meanwhile, noted that bear spray and defense product manufacturers in his home state will be able to continue using HFCs.
“The end result is clean air and clear rules,” Barrasso said on the floor. “We need both of those.”
Next steps
Observers expect implementation of the law to go smoothly, given that EPA has experience phasing out chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) and hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs), the ozone-depleting chemicals that HFCs were originally designed to replace under the Montreal Protocol.
“I think it might take a smidge longer than we would have anticipated just because of the administration transitioning and getting a new administrator in place and all the political appointees in place and everybody in the building,” said Samantha Slater, vice president of government affairs for the Air-Conditioning, Heating and Refrigeration Institute.
But EPA was also intimately involved as the bill was negotiated, Slater said, offering testimony and responding to questions from staff attempting to work out kinks, which could smooth implementation.
For the companies that manufacture replacement refrigerants, the hope is that the law will “slow down or end” the patchwork of HFC laws enacted by states in recent years, she added.
“I believe our industry is ready to go whenever EPA is, and I think the only thing that might slow things down a bit is just the official transition and the timing of all that,” Slater said.
Attaching the bill to the omnibus package means President Trump, who has declared climate change a hoax, will likely sign it into law, but Kigali could remain politically fraught territory for Biden next year.
Biden pledged on the campaign trail to “embrace” Kigali as part of his climate plan, and Doniger said he expects the administration to send it to the Senate early next year.
More than a dozen Senate Republicans sent a letter to Trump in 2018 asking him to send Kigali for ratification, which suggests there could be 60 votes for the treaty, even with a closely divided Senate after the Georgia runoffs next month.
Republicans, however, have long been skeptical of international climate treaties, even if the original Montreal Protocol was ratified without opposition at the recommendation of President Reagan.
And even with conservatives like Barrasso supporting the HFC phase-down bill, there remains a current of opposition on the right.
Steve Milloy, a lawyer and climate change denier who served on Trump’s EPA transition team, yesterday called the HFC bill “climate communism” and urged the president to veto the entire package in protest.
Conservative groups like the Competitive Enterprise Institute have long argued a phase-down would be anti-consumer, designed for the benefit of the large companies like Honeywell International Inc. and Chemours Co. that manufacture HFC replacements.
“Senators and Representatives must be hoping Americans celebrating the holidays don’t notice that phasing out common refrigerants will benefit two corporations at the expense of consumers,” Myron Ebell, director of CEI’s Center for Energy and Environment, said in a statement yesterday.
Still, industry has succeeded in selling Republicans on the idea by pitching it as a jobs creator, with American companies hoping to lead the way in manufacturing next-generation refrigerants.
Kennedy, for instance, said yesterday that the HFC phase-down would “create thousands of jobs, save billions of dollars and safeguard the environment.”
Chemical manufacturers and environmental groups say there will be little cost for consumers over the course of the 15-year phase-down. Previous phaseouts of ozone-depleting chemicals under the Montreal Protocol suggest that replacements will be widely available in short order, Doniger said.
“We anticipate that like in the case of CFCs and HCFCs, everything will go faster than the original schedule,” he said.
More energy
Aside from HFCs, the end-of-year measure also includes multiple other provisions that would curb emissions and boost the development of cleaner power sources.
Those include a modest tax title that would modify the phase-down agreement for the renewable production and investment tax credits.
The PTC would get another year under the deal, while the ITC would get two more years. Additionally, the deal would extend for two years the 45Q carbon capture credit and would make permanent a key incentive for energy efficiency (E&E Daily, Dec. 21).
Industry and advocates had wanted longer extensions, as well as the option of temporarily receiving direct payments for the breaks, but those fights will have to wait for another day.
In addition, the omnibus includes an innovation-focused research and development measure cobbled together from provisions from the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee and a House-passed clean energy package.
The resulting deal “will foster innovation across the board on a range of technologies that are critical to our energy and national security, our long-term economic competitiveness, and the protection of our environment,” Energy and Natural Resources Chairwoman Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) said in a statement yesterday.
ENR Committee ranking member Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) noted that the rare bicameral energy agreement “provides a down payment on the technologies that will be critical to reducing greenhouse gas emissions in the power sector, industry and buildings and addressing climate change.”
Some progressive advocacy groups decried the inclusion of provisions to boost nuclear power as well as the "Utilizing Significant Emissions With Innovative Technologies (USE IT) Act,” S. 383, to promote carbon capture and sequestration technology. But the end-of-year bill won praise from other advocacy groups.
The energy package “sets the stage for the Biden administration to hit the ground running in 2021," said Lindsey Walter, a senior policy adviser for the Climate and Energy Program at Third Way.
“The innovation provisions, the demonstration programs, the clean energy research and development programs—all of that is going to set us up to build and innovate the clean energy technologies that we need in order to actually implement the Biden climate plan,” Walter said.
“So this is absolutely a huge down payment towards larger climate and clean energy legislation that we’ll likely see under a Biden administration.”
Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) pledged yesterday to “deliver bold climate action” with Biden in the White House.
“Let’s be clear: are these provisions enough to meet the demands of the science? No,” Schumer said in a statement. “But are they a significant step in the right direction? Yes.”
Reprinted from Climatewire with permission from E&E News. E&E provides daily coverage of essential energy and environmental news at www.eenews.net.


scientificamerican--2020-12-22--A Running List of Record-Breaking Natural Disasters in 2020

Editor ’ s Note ( 12/22/20 ) : This story has been updated to reflect new records set through the November 30 end of the hurricane season .
This year has been a standout year for all the wrong reasons , including its devastating natural disasters .
Wildfires have ravaged the western U.S. , and tropical cyclones have popped up left and right , with several causing significant damage to coastal areas .
Though they are called natural disasters , the toll they take comes in part from human actions .
The buildup of communities in vulnerable areas , such @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of the West , means more people are in harm ’ s way .
Climate change , fueled by greenhouse gas emissions from energy use and industrial processes , has also upped the ante .
Hotter weather dries out the grasses and forest debris that can ignite , fueling bigger and longer-lasting wildfires .
And rising seas and heavier downpours mean higher flood risks during storms .
These factors have helped push some of this year ’ s disasters to surpass—and in some cases , shatter—previous records .
This is a running list @ @ @ @ @ @ @ set this year .
The 2020 Atlantic hurricane season was a doozy .
Here are some of the records it achieved : • This is only the second time that the official alphabetical list of hurricane names has been used up , meaning forecasters have had to move to the supplementary list of Greek letter names .
• The 2020 season surpassed 2005 as the one with the most named storms on record : 30 .
( Named storms are those that reach at least tropical storm strength , with winds of 39 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ • Twenty-seven of the 30 storms that formed this season were the earliest of their storm number to do so .
For example , Delta was the earliest 25th named storm of any season , beating out Tropical Storm Gamma , which formed on November 15 , 2005 .
• When Tropical Storm Eta made landfall on Florida ’ s island of Lower Matecumbe Key on November 8 , it became the only 12th named storm to hit the U.S. in a single season .
It broke the record set just weeks earlier @ @ @ @ @ @ @ it .
Prior to 2020 , the season with the most landfalls was 1916 , which had nine .
• Hurricane Zeta was the sixth hurricane to hit the U.S. this year , tying 1886 and 1985 for the most continental U.S. hurricane landfalls in a single season .
• Zeta was the record fifth named storm to hit Louisiana in a single season .
• Delta ’ s landfall was the first time a Greek-alphabet-named hurricane has made landfall in the U.S. • Hurricane Iota was the latest known category 5 hurricane @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on November 16 .
The old record , for November 8 , was held by the Cuba Hurricane of 1932 .
• This November was the first on record to have two major hurricanes , Eta and Iota .
• This was the record fifth consecutive year to see a category 5 storm form .
• September , which falls within the peak of the hurricane season , saw a record 10 named storms form within the month .
( The previous record was eight . )
• In mid-September , there were @ @ @ @ @ @ @ simultaneously for only the second time on record .
• September 18 marked the second time on record that three named storms—Wilfred , Alpha and Beta—all formed on the same day .
The only other time this was known to happen was on August 15 , 1893 , before hurricanes received official alphabetical names .
Wildfires have taken an enormous toll on western U.S. communities , both from flames and harmful smoke .
California bore the worst of it .
Here are some of the records that were set : • Fires burned @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , about doubling the previous record of nearly two million acres set in 2018 .
Quality records of fires size in California go back to 1932 .
• The August Complex Fire alone burned more than one million acres , by far the largest in California ’ s history .
The previous record of more than 459,000 acres was set in 2018 by the Mendocino Complex Fire .
• Five of California ’ s six largest fires burned this year .
• On October 14 Colorado ’ s Cameron Peak Fire surged to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ burning more than 208,000 acres and surpassing the record set less than two months prior by the Pine Gulch Fire .
Heavy rain sent water levels in the Tittabawassee River to record highs in May , causing the failures of the Edenville and Sanford dams near Midland , Mich .
Some 10,000 residents had to evacuate because of the subsequent floods .
Heat , especially over prolonged periods , can exacerbate existing health conditions and is one of the leading causes of weather-related deaths in the U.S .
The Phoenix area saw notable @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a record for the most days with temperatures of 100 degrees Fahrenheit or higher with 144 days .
• On Nov. 16 , the city saw its latest 90-degree day on record , beating the previous record of Nov. 15 .
Through September , the U.S. had 16 natural disasters ( including wildfires , hurricanes , tornadoes and drought ) that each caused at least $ 1 billion in damage , tying the record set in both 2011 and 2017—with several months left to go .
Such statistics have been compiled since 1980 @

Editor’s Note (12/22/20): This story has been updated to reflect new records set through the November 30 end of the hurricane season.
This year has been a standout year for all the wrong reasons, including its devastating natural disasters. Wildfires have ravaged the western U.S., and tropical cyclones have popped up left and right, with several causing significant damage to coastal areas.
Though they are called natural disasters, the toll they take comes in part from human actions. The buildup of communities in vulnerable areas, such as along the coasts and fire-prone areas of the West, means more people are in harm’s way. Climate change, fueled by greenhouse gas emissions from energy use and industrial processes, has also upped the ante. Hotter weather dries out the grasses and forest debris that can ignite, fueling bigger and longer-lasting wildfires. And rising seas and heavier downpours mean higher flood risks during storms.
These factors have helped push some of this year’s disasters to surpass—and in some cases, shatter—previous records. This is a running list of all the ones that have been set this year.
Hurricanes
The 2020 Atlantic hurricane season was a doozy. Here are some of the records it achieved:
This is only the second time that the official alphabetical list of hurricane names has been used up, meaning forecasters have had to move to the supplementary list of Greek letter names.
The 2020 season surpassed 2005 as the one with the most named storms on record: 30. (Named storms are those that reach at least tropical storm strength, with winds of 39 to 73 miles per hour.)
Twenty-seven of the 30 storms that formed this season were the earliest of their storm number to do so. For example, Delta was the earliest 25th named storm of any season, beating out Tropical Storm Gamma, which formed on November 15, 2005.
When Tropical Storm Eta made landfall on Florida’s island of Lower Matecumbe Key on November 8, it became the only 12th named storm to hit the U.S. in a single season. It broke the record set just weeks earlier by Hurricane Zeta and Hurricane Delta before it. Prior to 2020, the season with the most landfalls was 1916, which had nine.
Hurricane Zeta was the sixth hurricane to hit the U.S. this year, tying 1886 and 1985 for the most continental U.S. hurricane landfalls in a single season.
Zeta was the record fifth named storm to hit Louisiana in a single season.
Delta’s landfall was the first time a Greek-alphabet-named hurricane has made landfall in the U.S.
Hurricane Iota was the latest known category 5 hurricane in the Atlantic, reaching that status on November 16. The old record, for November 8, was held by the Cuba Hurricane of 1932.
This November was the first on record to have two major hurricanes, Eta and Iota.
This was the record fifth consecutive year to see a category 5 storm form.
September, which falls within the peak of the hurricane season, saw a record 10 named storms form within the month. (The previous record was eight.)
In mid-September, there were five storms churning around the Atlantic Ocean simultaneously for only the second time on record.
September 18 marked the second time on record that three named storms—Wilfred, Alpha and Beta—all formed on the same day. The only other time this was known to happen was on August 15, 1893, before hurricanes received official alphabetical names.
(The Atlantic hurricane database, managed by the National Hurricane Center, extends back to 1851. The lists of alternating male and female hurricane names have been in use since 1979.)
Wildfires
Wildfires have taken an enormous toll on western U.S. communities, both from flames and harmful smoke. California bore the worst of it. Here are some of the records that were set:
Fires burned more than four million acres across California, about doubling the previous record of nearly two million acres set in 2018. Quality records of fires size in California go back to 1932.
The August Complex Fire alone burned more than one million acres, by far the largest in California’s history. The previous record of more than 459,000 acres was set in 2018 by the Mendocino Complex Fire.
Five of California’s six largest fires burned this year.
On October 14 Colorado’s Cameron Peak Fire surged to become the largest in state history, burning more than 208,000 acres and surpassing the record set less than two months prior by the Pine Gulch Fire.
Rain and Flooding
Heavy rain sent water levels in the Tittabawassee River to record highs in May, causing the failures of the Edenville and Sanford dams near Midland, Mich. Some 10,000 residents had to evacuate because of the subsequent floods.
Heat
Heat, especially over prolonged periods, can exacerbate existing health conditions and is one of the leading causes of weather-related deaths in the U.S. The Phoenix area saw notable heat this year.
Phoenix set a record for the most days with temperatures of 100 degrees Fahrenheit or higher with 144 days.
On Nov. 16, the city saw its latest 90-degree day on record, beating the previous record of Nov. 15.
Overall
Through September, the U.S. had 16 natural disasters (including wildfires, hurricanes, tornadoes and drought) that each caused at least $1 billion in damage, tying the record set in both 2011 and 2017—with several months left to go. Such statistics have been compiled since 1980.


scientificamerican--2020-12-22--Scientists Think This May Be the Farthest Galaxy in the Universe

Astronomers have peered out into the vast expanse and spotted what they think is the farthest ( and oldest ) galaxy ever observed .
The galaxy GN-z11 might not have a flashy name , but it appears to be the most distant and oldest galaxy ever detected , scientists have found .
Astronomers led by Nobunari Kashikawa , a professor in the department of astronomy at the University of Tokyo , embarked on a mission to find the universe ’ s most distant observable galaxy , to learn more about how it formed and when .
“ From previous studies @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the farthest detectable galaxy from us , at 13.4 billion light-years , or 134 nonillion kilometers ( that ’ s 134 followed by 30 zeros ) , ” Kashikawa said in a statement .
“ But measuring and verifying such a distance is not an easy task.
” To determine how far GN-z11 is from us here on planet Earth , Kashikawa ’ s team studied the galaxy ’ s redshift—how much its light has stretched out , or shifted toward the red end of the spectrum .
In general , the farther @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on Earth , the more redshifted its light will be .
Additionally , the team looked at GN-z11 ’ s emission lines—observable , chemical signatures in the light coming from cosmic objects .
By studying these signatures closely , the team was able to figure out how far the light coming from GN-z11 must have traveled to get to us , giving them the tools to estimate its overall distance from Earth .
“ We looked at ultraviolet light specifically , as that is the area of the electromagnetic spectrum we expected to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Kashikawa said .
“ The Hubble Space Telescope detected the signature multiple times in the spectrum of GN-z11.
” “ However , ” he added , “ even the Hubble can not resolve ultraviolet emission lines to the degree we needed .
So we turned to a more up-to-date ground-based spectrograph , an instrument to measure emission lines , called MOSFIRE , which is mounted to the Keck I telescope in Hawaii.
” Using MOSFIRE , the team was able to observe and study the emission lines coming from the galaxy in detail @ @ @ @ @ @ @ findings , GN-z11 would officially reign as the most distant galaxy ever seen .
The new study was published Dec. 14 in the journal Nature Astronomy .
Copyright 2020 Space.com , a Future company .
All rights reserved .
This material may not be published , broadcast , rewritten or redistributed .

Astronomers have peered out into the vast expanse and spotted what they think is the farthest (and oldest) galaxy ever observed.
The galaxy GN-z11 might not have a flashy name, but it appears to be the most distant and oldest galaxy ever detected, scientists have found. Astronomers led by Nobunari Kashikawa, a professor in the department of astronomy at the University of Tokyo, embarked on a mission to find the universe’s most distant observable galaxy, to learn more about how it formed and when.
“From previous studies, the galaxy GN-z11 seems to be the farthest detectable galaxy from us, at 13.4 billion light-years, or 134 nonillion kilometers (that’s 134 followed by 30 zeros),” Kashikawa said in a statement. “But measuring and verifying such a distance is not an easy task.”
To determine how far GN-z11 is from us here on planet Earth, Kashikawa’s team studied the galaxy’s redshift—how much its light has stretched out, or shifted toward the red end of the spectrum. In general, the farther away a cosmic object is from us on Earth, the more redshifted its light will be.
Additionally, the team looked at GN-z11’s emission lines—observable, chemical signatures in the light coming from cosmic objects.
By studying these signatures closely, the team was able to figure out how far the light coming from GN-z11 must have traveled to get to us, giving them the tools to estimate its overall distance from Earth.
“We looked at ultraviolet light specifically, as that is the area of the electromagnetic spectrum we expected to find the redshifted chemical signatures,” Kashikawa said. “The Hubble Space Telescope detected the signature multiple times in the spectrum of GN-z11.”
“However,” he added, “even the Hubble cannot resolve ultraviolet emission lines to the degree we needed. So we turned to a more up-to-date ground-based spectrograph, an instrument to measure emission lines, called MOSFIRE, which is mounted to the Keck I telescope in Hawaii.”
Using MOSFIRE, the team was able to observe and study the emission lines coming from the galaxy in detail. If other observations confirm the new findings, GN-z11 would officially reign as the most distant galaxy ever seen.
The new study was published Dec. 14 in the journal Nature Astronomy.
Copyright 2020 Space.com, a Future company. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.


scientificamerican--2020-12-22--DNA Finds Pollutants in Green-Glowing Water Test

Pollution from industry , agricultural runoff , pharmaceuticals and other sources contaminates water around the world , and detecting it can be expensive and time-consuming .
Now researchers have developed a quick , potentially inexpensive way to test for at least 16 dangerous contaminants , including lead , copper and antibiotics , according to a study published in Nature Biotechnology .
The test takes cues from bacteria , which are especially adept at reacting to specific contaminants .
“ Nature has been solving this problem for billions of years , ” says study co-author Julius Lucks , a chemical and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ team searched the literature to find out which proteins bacteria produce to deal with various pollutants .
The researchers ' new , handheld testing device takes advantage of these proteins ' reactions using a series of vials : each has a freeze-dried solution that incorporates a specific protein , which causes the mixture to glow green when an added drop of water contains a particular contaminant .
Each solution includes custom-engineered strands of DNA with one section that a pollutant-sensing protein is bound to and another section that generates a fluorescent glow if @ @ @ @ @ @ @ polymerase , which makes RNA by following a DNA strand .
If the protein bound to the DNA encounters its corresponding contaminant , the protein changes shape and falls off .
This lets the RNA polymerase travel all the way along the DNA strand , making the sample fluoresce green .
The study is “ a really nice , clever and creative use of synthetic biology and highlights what the field can do well , ” says Mary Dunlop , a synthetic biologist at Boston University , who was not involved in the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ method to detect pathogens , but this device is the first to identify so many pollutants , Lucks says .
The test is “ very promising , ” says Susan Richardson , a University of South Carolina chemist , who focuses on water issues and was not involved in the research .
She cautions , however , that it may need to react to lower contaminant concentrations before it can be widely useful .

Pollution from industry, agricultural runoff, pharmaceuticals and other sources contaminates water around the world, and detecting it can be expensive and time-consuming. Now researchers have developed a quick, potentially inexpensive way to test for at least 16 dangerous contaminants, including lead, copper and antibiotics, according to a study published in Nature Biotechnology.
The test takes cues from bacteria, which are especially adept at reacting to specific contaminants. “Nature has been solving this problem for billions of years,” says study co-author Julius Lucks, a chemical and biological engineer at Northwestern University. His team searched the literature to find out which proteins bacteria produce to deal with various pollutants. The researchers' new, handheld testing device takes advantage of these proteins' reactions using a series of vials: each has a freeze-dried solution that incorporates a specific protein, which causes the mixture to glow green when an added drop of water contains a particular contaminant.
Each solution includes custom-engineered strands of DNA with one section that a pollutant-sensing protein is bound to and another section that generates a fluorescent glow if activated. The solutions also contain RNA polymerase, which makes RNA by following a DNA strand. If the protein bound to the DNA encounters its corresponding contaminant, the protein changes shape and falls off. This lets the RNA polymerase travel all the way along the DNA strand, making the sample fluoresce green.
The study is “a really nice, clever and creative use of synthetic biology and highlights what the field can do well,” says Mary Dunlop, a synthetic biologist at Boston University, who was not involved in the research.
Researchers have used a similar method to detect pathogens, but this device is the first to identify so many pollutants, Lucks says. The test is “very promising,” says Susan Richardson, a University of South Carolina chemist, who focuses on water issues and was not involved in the research. She cautions, however, that it may need to react to lower contaminant concentrations before it can be widely useful.


scientificamerican--2020-12-23--LGBTQ People Are at Higher Risk in Disasters

The Federal Emergency Management Agency warned yesterday that minorities ; single parents ; and lesbian , gay , bisexual and transgender people are “ more likely than others to be severely impacted by disasters ” and may need extra help .
FEMA ’ s annual National Preparedness Report , which historically has focused on threats including flooding , terrorism and the nation ’ s vulnerability , breaks precedent by drawing attention to classes of individuals who may lack the financial and social resources to withstand a disaster .
It ’ s the first time that the preparedness report , published @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ lesbian , ” “ gay , ” “ bisexual ” and “ transgender.
” The report does not mention climate change .
“ There are individuals and families who are particularly vulnerable to disasters , ” the report says .
“ Age , financial insecurity , pregnancy , and identification with a historically disadvantaged group—including minorities and the lesbian , gay , bisexual , transgender , queer ( LGBTQ+ ) community—are all factors that can increase vulnerability.
” The report notes that LGBTQ people “ have historically been socially repressed and excluded.
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ disaster , LGBTQ people are more likely to be socially isolated and face disrespect or harassment in settings such as emergency shelters .
FEMA urges emergency managers to “ plan for the whole community , including those with civil rights protections , ” and to “ quickly restore social safety nets after a disaster.
” Domestic violence and child abuse can increase after a disaster as programs and services are disrupted , the report says .
Single-parent households , which account for 30 % of U.S. households , face additional vulnerability after a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ lower socioeconomic status and fewer social support resources.
” One section of the report cites research showing that minorities , low-income households and less-educated people are far less likely than their counterparts to have internet access at home , which can be crucial after a disaster to find help .
Just 56 % of people with only a high school education have home broadband compared to 93 % of people with a college degree .
Low-income people also often lack property insurance , which can be “ cost-prohibitive ” for them , the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ records show that low-income households are much less likely than higher-income households to have flood insurance , even though low-income households are “ exactly the population that would benefit most from a post-disaster insurance payout.
” After major flooding , low-income households instead rely on FEMA disaster aid , which typically pays only a few thousand dollars , “ so these individuals will likely fall further behind after a disaster , ” FEMA said .
The preparedness report comes amid growing attention to the unequal effects of disasters and the disproportionate harm they @ @ @ @ @ @ @ financially marginalized .
FEMA itself held a series of “ civil rights summits ” in recent months to address equity , accessibility and environmental justice in disasters .
FEMA ’ s preparedness report says nothing about climate change—an omission that in previous years has drawn rebuke from scientists and Democrats in Congress .
In the Obama administration , FEMA used its annual National Preparedness Report to warn extensively about the dangers of climate change , but those warnings ceased during the Trump administration .
When FEMA Administrator Peter Gaynor was pressed at a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ from the 2019 preparedness report , he said the report did not mention any specific hazard and was “ more of a thought piece about what was important to the nation.
” The preparedness report , which federal law requires FEMA to issue annually , is intended to broadly describe the main threats and vulnerabilities and to help guide policy and funding decisions .
The 2020 report describes the nation ’ s threats and vulnerabilities in 2019 and thus does not mention COVID-19 .
Future preparedness reports “ will prioritize pandemics , ” @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Climatewire with permission from E & E News .
E & E provides daily coverage of essential energy and environmental news at www.eenews.net .

The Federal Emergency Management Agency warned yesterday that minorities; single parents; and lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender people are “more likely than others to be severely impacted by disasters” and may need extra help.
FEMA’s annual National Preparedness Report, which historically has focused on threats including flooding, terrorism and the nation’s vulnerability, breaks precedent by drawing attention to classes of individuals who may lack the financial and social resources to withstand a disaster.
It’s the first time that the preparedness report, published annually since 2012, used the words “lesbian,” “gay,” “bisexual” and “transgender.” The report does not mention climate change.
“There are individuals and families who are particularly vulnerable to disasters,” the report says. “Age, financial insecurity, pregnancy, and identification with a historically disadvantaged group—including minorities and the lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender, queer (LGBTQ+) community—are all factors that can increase vulnerability.”
The report notes that LGBTQ people “have historically been socially repressed and excluded.” Research has shown that after a disaster, LGBTQ people are more likely to be socially isolated and face disrespect or harassment in settings such as emergency shelters.
FEMA urges emergency managers to “plan for the whole community, including those with civil rights protections,” and to “quickly restore social safety nets after a disaster.”
Domestic violence and child abuse can increase after a disaster as programs and services are disrupted, the report says. Single-parent households, which account for 30% of U.S. households, face additional vulnerability after a disaster because they “tend to have lower socioeconomic status and fewer social support resources.”
One section of the report cites research showing that minorities, low-income households and less-educated people are far less likely than their counterparts to have internet access at home, which can be crucial after a disaster to find help. Just 56% of people with only a high school education have home broadband compared to 93% of people with a college degree.
Low-income people also often lack property insurance, which can be “cost-prohibitive” for them, the report says. FEMA says its own records show that low-income households are much less likely than higher-income households to have flood insurance, even though low-income households are “exactly the population that would benefit most from a post-disaster insurance payout.”
After major flooding, low-income households instead rely on FEMA disaster aid, which typically pays only a few thousand dollars, “so these individuals will likely fall further behind after a disaster,” FEMA said.
The preparedness report comes amid growing attention to the unequal effects of disasters and the disproportionate harm they inflict on people who are socially or financially marginalized. FEMA itself held a series of “civil rights summits” in recent months to address equity, accessibility and environmental justice in disasters.
FEMA’s preparedness report says nothing about climate change—an omission that in previous years has drawn rebuke from scientists and Democrats in Congress. In the Obama administration, FEMA used its annual National Preparedness Report to warn extensively about the dangers of climate change, but those warnings ceased during the Trump administration.
When FEMA Administrator Peter Gaynor was pressed at a recent congressional hearing about excluding climate change from the 2019 preparedness report, he said the report did not mention any specific hazard and was “more of a thought piece about what was important to the nation.”
The preparedness report, which federal law requires FEMA to issue annually, is intended to broadly describe the main threats and vulnerabilities and to help guide policy and funding decisions.
The 2020 report describes the nation’s threats and vulnerabilities in 2019 and thus does not mention COVID-19. Future preparedness reports “will prioritize pandemics,” the 2020 report says.
Reprinted from Climatewire with permission from E&E News. E&E provides daily coverage of essential energy and environmental news at www.eenews.net.