scientificamerican--2020-09-15--COVID-19's Other Unnecessary Death Toll

COVID-19's Other Unnecessary Death Toll

Between stimulus and response , there is a space .
In that space is our power to choose our response .
In our response lies our growth and freedom .
—Apocyphal , often attributed to psychiatrist Viktor Frankl “ We need to learn to live with it.
” That , essentially , is the current response being put forward by the United States government and many state governments , as COVID-19 , the disease caused by the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus , continues to wreak devastation around the country .
At the time of this writing , the U.S. has over six @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 180,000 deaths .
My institution , the University of Michigan , and my state , had a relatively successful response to COVID-19 .
Our medical center ’ s incident command center was opened on January 24 , within days of the first confirmed COVID-19 case in the U.S. Our Regional Infectious Containment Unit ( RICU ) , a unit specially designed for highly transmissible infectious diseases , opened within five days of the first confirmed COVID-19 case in the state on March 10 .
This rapid mobilization saved lives , and allowed even @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
After peaking at close to 250 inpatients ( about 25 percent of our total hospital capacity ) battling COVID-19 in April , our numbers rapidly declined by the beginning of June .
However , these numbers don ’ t tell the whole story .
The direct losses nationally from COVID-19—over 180,000 mothers , fathers , grandparents , sisters , brothers , children and friends gone—are devastating .
Those who died from the virus and their families are not the only ones to suffer from the poor national response to the pandemic , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ second wave of death and morbidity in our hospital—but not from COVID-19 itself , where our case numbers have been in the single digits to low teens for several months .
This next wave of is from delayed care because of the prolonged effects of the virus on our troubled health care system .
COVID-19 is currently the third leading cause of death in the U.S .
But that means there are two scourges that are still causing even more morbidity and mortality : heart disease ( the number one killer in America @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Over the summer , in my work as a hospital-based geriatrician , I have managed multiple deaths from end-stage heart failure , and made several new cancer diagnoses in more advanced stages of disease with limited treatment options .
The amount of death and suffering I ’ ve witnessed this summer , not having worked directly with COVID-19 patients in months , is amongst the worst I ’ ve seen in my entire medical career .
A Washington Post investigation found that there were 8,300 more deaths from heart disease in five @ @ @ @ @ @ @ hard-hit New York City ; Massachusetts ; New Jersey ; Michigan ; and Illinois ) between March and May , about 27 percent higher than would be predicted from previous years .
New York City alone saw more than 4,700 excess deaths from heart disease .
As hospitals in New York City were overwhelmed with COVID-19 , they were unable to care for anyone else .
This included people suffering from heart failure , complications of cancer or possibly undiagnosed cancer , and other conditions .
There were simply no hospital beds in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is often managed outpatient , the initial diagnosis of cancer is often made in a hospital—either in the emergency department or on the hospital floor .
When there are no available hospital beds , the investigation of vague symptoms of malaise , weight loss and unexplained bleeding is delayed ; and cancer cells or tumors continue to grow unabated .
For heart disease , people in chest pain may suffer in silence .
The plaque continues to build up , until a condition that could be managed with a percutaneous coronary intervention ( @ @ @ @ @ @ @ stent placement to hold the artery open , rapidly becomes a fully blocked artery that requires a completely new set of collateral arteries to keep the heart alive ( coronary artery bypass graft , a far riskier surgery with longer hospital length of stay ) ; or , even worse , something completely inoperable , causing inevitable death .
This betrays one of the greatest dangers of our 21st-century American health care system : the very low margins within hospitals .
Empty hospital beds don ’ t make money .
When medical care @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of low-income hospitals , such as Hahnemann Hospital in Philadelphia in 2019 , and hundreds of low-income urban or rural hospitals across the country .
Even prior to COVID-19 , many hospitals were running on razor-thin margins .
We would get nearly daily e-mails that bed capacity was full , that dozens of patients were being housed in the emergency department for hours to days .
COVID-19 preyed upon an already broken system .
Those hours in the waiting room , days in an emergency department awaiting a bed on the floor , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ care .
When we did not have available hospital beds anywhere in a region or state , when we hired only the bare minimum level of trained staff to “ maintain profits , ” we had no elasticity for handling a mass disaster , such as a pandemic .
COVID-19 literally forced us to make decisions about whose lives are more important—those suffering from the virus , or those with other serious chronic illnesses ?
America ’ s health care system is like a diseased lung : it has no elasticity , no @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that it can take in enough oxygen to help it breathe .
At my institution , we were fortunate enough , through quick action both at the institutional level and at the state level from Governor Gretchen Whitmer , that we still had enough hospital beds even in the peak of our pandemic to help the sickest people without COVID-19 ; ventilators for those with cancer or severe heart failure , to buy us time to possibly save their lives , or at least have meaningful goals of care conversations and an orderly @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ill person home .
Many cities and states have not been so lucky .
What many fail to realize is that if the United States had a rapid , organized pandemic response on a national level , this not only would have saved tens of thousands of lives from the COVID-19 virus itself , but also would have given people with serious chronic conditions , including heart disease and cancer , a better chance of getting the treatment they need for survival .
For those with unsurvivable disease , this would have given @ @ @ @ @ @ @ conversation including the patient and their loved ones , and the time they needed to manage their death on their own terms .
When the pandemic is over , it will be clear that the hundreds of thousands of deaths from COVID-19 will be just the tip of the iceberg .
In the space we were given between stimulus and response , collectively America did nothing , and instead of growth and freedom , we will have witnessed the suffering and death of millions of Americans .
However , another space has now @ @ @ @ @ @ @ bed $ 3,000 in profit lost that day , or instead a place available to provide lifesaving care to a person in need ?
We have the power to choose our response at the ballot box .

Between stimulus and response, there is a space. In that space is our power to choose our response. In our response lies our growth and freedom. —Apocyphal, often attributed to psychiatrist Viktor Frankl
“We need to learn to live with it.” That, essentially, is the current response being put forward by the United States government and many state governments, as COVID-19, the disease caused by the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus, continues to wreak devastation around the country. At the time of this writing, the U.S. has over six million cases of COVID-19, with over 180,000 deaths.
My institution, the University of Michigan, and my state, had a relatively successful response to COVID-19. Our medical center’s incident command center was opened on January 24, within days of the first confirmed COVID-19 case in the U.S. Our Regional Infectious Containment Unit (RICU), a unit specially designed for highly transmissible infectious diseases, opened within five days of the first confirmed COVID-19 case in the state on March 10. This rapid mobilization saved lives, and allowed even the sickest with COVID-19 a fighting chance. After peaking at close to 250 inpatients (about 25 percent of our total hospital capacity) battling COVID-19 in April, our numbers rapidly declined by the beginning of June. However, these numbers don’t tell the whole story.
The direct losses nationally from COVID-19—over 180,000 mothers, fathers, grandparents, sisters, brothers, children and friends gone—are devastating. Those who died from the virus and their families are not the only ones to suffer from the poor national response to the pandemic, though. We are now seeing the second wave of death and morbidity in our hospital—but not from COVID-19 itself, where our case numbers have been in the single digits to low teens for several months. This next wave of is from delayed care because of the prolonged effects of the virus on our troubled health care system.
COVID-19 is currently the third leading cause of death in the U.S. But that means there are two scourges that are still causing even more morbidity and mortality: heart disease (the number one killer in America) and cancer (number two). Over the summer, in my work as a hospital-based geriatrician, I have managed multiple deaths from end-stage heart failure, and made several new cancer diagnoses in more advanced stages of disease with limited treatment options. The amount of death and suffering I’ve witnessed this summer, not having worked directly with COVID-19 patients in months, is amongst the worst I’ve seen in my entire medical career.
A Washington Post investigation found that there were 8,300 more deaths from heart disease in five states (New York, led by hard-hit New York City; Massachusetts; New Jersey; Michigan; and Illinois) between March and May, about 27 percent higher than would be predicted from previous years. New York City alone saw more than 4,700 excess deaths from heart disease. As hospitals in New York City were overwhelmed with COVID-19, they were unable to care for anyone else. This included people suffering from heart failure, complications of cancer or possibly undiagnosed cancer, and other conditions. There were simply no hospital beds in the entire city.
While cancer treatment is often managed outpatient, the initial diagnosis of cancer is often made in a hospital—either in the emergency department or on the hospital floor. When there are no available hospital beds, the investigation of vague symptoms of malaise, weight loss and unexplained bleeding is delayed; and cancer cells or tumors continue to grow unabated. For heart disease, people in chest pain may suffer in silence. The plaque continues to build up, until a condition that could be managed with a percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI), a coronary catheterization with stent placement to hold the artery open, rapidly becomes a fully blocked artery that requires a completely new set of collateral arteries to keep the heart alive (coronary artery bypass graft, a far riskier surgery with longer hospital length of stay); or, even worse, something completely inoperable, causing inevitable death.
This betrays one of the greatest dangers of our 21st-century American health care system: the very low margins within hospitals. Empty hospital beds don’t make money. When medical care is monetized, the effect is closure of low-income hospitals, such as Hahnemann Hospital in Philadelphia in 2019, and hundreds of low-income urban or rural hospitals across the country. Even prior to COVID-19, many hospitals were running on razor-thin margins. We would get nearly daily e-mails that bed capacity was full, that dozens of patients were being housed in the emergency department for hours to days.
COVID-19 preyed upon an already broken system. Those hours in the waiting room, days in an emergency department awaiting a bed on the floor, have stretched into weeks or months without care. When we did not have available hospital beds anywhere in a region or state, when we hired only the bare minimum level of trained staff to “maintain profits,” we had no elasticity for handling a mass disaster, such as a pandemic. COVID-19 literally forced us to make decisions about whose lives are more important—those suffering from the virus, or those with other serious chronic illnesses? America’s health care system is like a diseased lung: it has no elasticity, no compliance, no room to expand such that it can take in enough oxygen to help it breathe.
At my institution, we were fortunate enough, through quick action both at the institutional level and at the state level from Governor Gretchen Whitmer, that we still had enough hospital beds even in the peak of our pandemic to help the sickest people without COVID-19; ventilators for those with cancer or severe heart failure, to buy us time to possibly save their lives, or at least have meaningful goals of care conversations and an orderly transition to hospice and returning the critically ill person home. Many cities and states have not been so lucky.
What many fail to realize is that if the United States had a rapid, organized pandemic response on a national level, this not only would have saved tens of thousands of lives from the COVID-19 virus itself, but also would have given people with serious chronic conditions, including heart disease and cancer, a better chance of getting the treatment they need for survival. For those with unsurvivable disease, this would have given them a hospital bed, a goals-of-care conversation including the patient and their loved ones, and the time they needed to manage their death on their own terms.
When the pandemic is over, it will be clear that the hundreds of thousands of deaths from COVID-19 will be just the tip of the iceberg. In the space we were given between stimulus and response, collectively America did nothing, and instead of growth and freedom, we will have witnessed the suffering and death of millions of Americans. However, another space has now opened up: Is an empty hospital bed $3,000 in profit lost that day, or instead a place available to provide lifesaving care to a person in need? We have the power to choose our response at the ballot box.


scientificamerican--2020-09-15--How New Mexico Controlled the Spread of COVID-19

There is a joke in New Mexico that the rest of the country does not know the state is part of the U.S .
This summer , as cases of COVID-19 surged in many parts of the nation , New Mexico really did seem to stand apart .
While Arizona and Texas , its neighbors to the west and east , loosened activity and business restrictions and then experienced alarming increases in COVID-19 numbers , New Mexico kept a tighter grip on the spread of the contagion .
To date , Arizona has had more than twice as many cases @ @ @ @ @ @ @ New Mexico has per 100,000 people .
The latter state also has far fewer cases and deaths per 100,000 than Texas .
New Mexico ’ s governor Michelle Lujan Grisham has taken an aggressive approach toward the pandemic .
She declared a statewide emergency on March 11 , the same day the state had its first positive case .
She closed K–12 schools two days later , and quickly issued public health orders to limit public gatherings and shut down nonessential businesses .
New Mexico began a widespread virus testing program for residents @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and delays are still problems in many other states ) .
And on May 16 the state instituted a mask mandate .
In June restaurants were allowed to open indoor dining at limited capacity , but in the middle of July permission was rescinded after an uptick in cases .
As of September 7 , the government has instructed all New Mexicans to “ stay home except for outings absolutely necessary for health , safety and welfare.
” These actions came with strong public health messages that explained how the moves curtailed disease @ @ @ @ @ @ @ be seen in New Mexico ’ s test results .
The state has a goal of at least 5,000 assays per day and a 5 percent or less test positivity rate ( a metric that reflects the amount of viral transmission ) .
On September 11 the seven-day rolling averages of these two measurements were 4,896 tests daily and a 2.3 percent positivity rate .
In comparison , Arizona and Texas had test positivity rates of 6.7 and 8 percent , respectively , at a similar time .
These numbers , as well @ @ @ @ @ @ @ what New Mexicans and their government had done to control infections in the previous months .
“ Whatever they were doing in May and June looks like it worked a lot better than in Texas and some of these Sunbelt states , ” says Lauren Ancel Meyers , executive director of the University of Texas at Austin COVID-19 Modeling Consortium .
David Scrase , secretary of New Mexico ’ s Human Services Department and a physician at the University of New Mexico School of Medicine , agrees .
“ We have taken a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s resulted in some real wins , ” he says .
Testing has been a crucial part of New Mexico ’ s strategy .
Tests are available to all the state ’ s residents , whether they are symptomatic or not , and are processed either at New Mexico ’ s own laboratory or at TriCore Reference Laboratories , an independent organization based in Albuquerque .
Both facilities were switched to 24/7 work schedules very early on to maximize testing output .
“ Eighty percent of the testing is done right here in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ When there was a huge backlog in national labs , that didn ’ t affect us like it did other states , ” because New Mexico was not sending its assays elsewhere .
Keeping the program local reduced the time required to transport tests for analysis .
Another advantage for New Mexico is that it has a centralized public health agency , whereas Texas has a regionalized system .
In the Lone Star State , that arrangement meant more variable policies and confusing public messaging .
Having a centralized agency and a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Grisham previously served as the state ’ s secretary of health—have made it easier for New Mexico to put together a consolidated effort to get things done , says David Morgan , media manager for the New Mexico Department of Health .
Early in the spring , the state put together a team of 150 researchers and clinicians to advise its officials , and New Mexico has been “ very proactive in implementing science-based decisions , ” says Sara Del Valle , a mathematical and computational epidemiologist at Los Alamos National Laboratory .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ patterns is important for understanding ways of containing the outbreak .
So in the spring New Mexico created its own modeling project in collaboration with researchers at Sandia National Laboratory and Los Alamos , as well as Presbyterian Healthcare Services , a nonprofit health care system in the state .
The team produces several types of models .
One is a forecasting model that intends to predict what will happen , given current trends , Del Valle says .
The others assist with what-if scenarios to provide insights on how different possible decisions @ @ @ @ @ @ @ size , might affect the virus ’ s spread .
“ We ’ ve been doing a lot of modeling on school reopening , ” Del Valle says .
The researchers have also been assessing the impact of travelers in the state .
Earlier this summer , New Mexico imposed a mandatory 14-day quarantine for most individuals coming in based on the models , and it is still required for people from areas with high numbers of cases .
The state ’ s models and its system for collecting and tracking data allow @ @ @ @ @ @ @ evidence-based decisions , Scrase says .
“ I have friends in other states working on this , and they feel like they ’ re always reacting to the case counts , which are something that already happened .
It ’ s like driving this car 90 miles per hour—only looking in the rearview mirror , ” he says .
The scientists ’ work has not become politicized in the way such projects have in other states .
In Arizona , the research team modeling the course of COVID-19 was instructed by Governor Doug @ @ @ @ @ @ @ work in early May—just as Ducey was directing widespread reopening around the state .
The numbers that the team ’ s models were providing “ did not match the reopening approach , ” says University of Arizona infectious disease epidemiologist Saskia Popescu .
She notes that Ducey ’ s move was widely criticized as an attempt to suppress data that would contradict the reopening plans .
The Arizona researchers were told to continue their work after widespread media coverage and public outcry .
In general , public pushback about activity restrictions in New @ @ @ @ @ @ @ many other places .
“ We have our share of the political and cultural divide , ” says Jeff Dye , president of the New Mexico Hospital Association , but “ for the most part , our state has been pretty supportive of our governor.
” According to a late July poll , Governor Lujan Grisham had a 53 percent approval rating for her handling of the COVID-19 pandemic .
There have been objections , however .
In July the state notified the mayor of the small city of Grants that he was @ @ @ @ @ @ @ adhere to its public health orders .
The mayor , Martin Hicks , had held a Fourth of July parade in violation of state rules .
Hicks is contesting the fine ( a hearing is pending ) .
Despite all the precautions , one group that has been hit disproportionately hard by infections are Native Americans in the state .
Although they represent only 11 percent of the state ’ s population , they accounted for more than half of the state ’ s initial cases , according to a report published in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ multigenerational households are common among this group .
Disease models from Del Valle ’ s team indicate that larger households , packed into smaller spaces , make it easier for the virus to spread .
New Mexico ’ s 22 Native American nations and tribes have met with Lujan Grisham and other agency leaders from the onset , says Brian Vallo , governor of the Pueblo of Acoma , which is one of them .
Vallo issued a declaration of public health crisis on March 13 and closed the pueblo ’ s borders @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to an outbreak in the Navajo Nation by closing all roads coming into the city of Gallup , which serves as a gateway to nearby Native American jurisdictions .
The Navajo Nation itself instituted strict health mandates such as mask wearing , stay-at-home orders and weekend lockdowns to contain the virus .
“ These efforts have significantly contributed toward our management of the virus and its impact on the community , ” Vallo says .
In early September the Navajo Nation reported its first period without a new case .
And Michael Weahkee @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , told the Navajo Times that not only had the nation flattened the curve , but it was “ on the downhill slope.
” The state works with Native American groups to provide food and shelter to people who need to quarantine because of COVID-19 or who have lost income , Scrase says .
The government set up housing in hotels , for example .
Vallo says the Pueblo of Acoma has a “ very strong relationship ” with Governor Lujan Grisham ’ s office and her cabinet .
School openings have been @ @ @ @ @ @ @ they have all over in the U.S. , and overall low case numbers have allowed New Mexico schools to begin reopening .
Some did so with a remote-learning format in August , but the state has now given the go-ahead to school districts and charter schools in 25 counties to allow limited cohorts of students to rotate between remote and in-person learning .
Small cohorts are used to reduce the number of students in a classroom at the same time and to maintain social distancing .
In order to move to hybrid learning @ @ @ @ @ @ @ with low rates of positive tests and new daily cases that follow below thresholds established by the New Mexico Department of Health .
( As of September 9 , most of the state qualified . )
Schools must also have an approved plan to address instructional , social-emotional and family engagement .
And they need to have comprehensive safety and cleaning protocols in place , as well as rapid response plans in the event of a positive case .
Ultimately , the focus on science may be the biggest factor in New Mexico @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the state has been “ very proactive at implementing science-based decisions.
” Scrase adds that “ it ’ s really exciting to have a governor who values science and evidence.
” Reopening decisions did take economic interests into account , he notes , but ultimately , they were driven by data about health and safety .
“ I ’ m really proud of that , ” he says .
Read more about the coronavirus outbreak from Scientific American here .
And read coverage from our international network of magazines here .

There is a joke in New Mexico that the rest of the country does not know the state is part of the U.S. This summer, as cases of COVID-19 surged in many parts of the nation, New Mexico really did seem to stand apart. While Arizona and Texas, its neighbors to the west and east, loosened activity and business restrictions and then experienced alarming increases in COVID-19 numbers, New Mexico kept a tighter grip on the spread of the contagion. To date, Arizona has had more than twice as many cases and nearly twice as many deaths as New Mexico has per 100,000 people. The latter state also has far fewer cases and deaths per 100,000 than Texas.
New Mexico’s governor Michelle Lujan Grisham has taken an aggressive approach toward the pandemic. She declared a statewide emergency on March 11, the same day the state had its first positive case. She closed K–12 schools two days later, and quickly issued public health orders to limit public gatherings and shut down nonessential businesses. New Mexico began a widespread virus testing program for residents to curtail the spread (testing availability and delays are still problems in many other states). And on May 16 the state instituted a mask mandate. In June restaurants were allowed to open indoor dining at limited capacity, but in the middle of July permission was rescinded after an uptick in cases. As of September 7, the government has instructed all New Mexicans to “stay home except for outings absolutely necessary for health, safety and welfare.” These actions came with strong public health messages that explained how the moves curtailed disease spread.
The reduction in disease can be seen in New Mexico’s test results. The state has a goal of at least 5,000 assays per day and a 5 percent or less test positivity rate (a metric that reflects the amount of viral transmission). On September 11 the seven-day rolling averages of these two measurements were 4,896 tests daily and a 2.3 percent positivity rate. In comparison, Arizona and Texas had test positivity rates of 6.7 and 8 percent, respectively, at a similar time.
These numbers, as well as the lower death rates, reflect what New Mexicans and their government had done to control infections in the previous months. “Whatever they were doing in May and June looks like it worked a lot better than in Texas and some of these Sunbelt states,” says Lauren Ancel Meyers, executive director of the University of Texas at Austin COVID-19 Modeling Consortium. David Scrase, secretary of New Mexico’s Human Services Department and a physician at the University of New Mexico School of Medicine, agrees. “We have taken a more early and aggressive approach that’s resulted in some real wins,” he says.
Testing has been a crucial part of New Mexico’s strategy. Tests are available to all the state’s residents, whether they are symptomatic or not, and are processed either at New Mexico’s own laboratory or at TriCore Reference Laboratories, an independent organization based in Albuquerque. Both facilities were switched to 24/7 work schedules very early on to maximize testing output. “Eighty percent of the testing is done right here in the state,” Scrase says. “When there was a huge backlog in national labs, that didn’t affect us like it did other states,” because New Mexico was not sending its assays elsewhere. Keeping the program local reduced the time required to transport tests for analysis.
Another advantage for New Mexico is that it has a centralized public health agency, whereas Texas has a regionalized system. In the Lone Star State, that arrangement meant more variable policies and confusing public messaging. Having a centralized agency and a governor who is knowledgeable about disease prevention—Lujan Grisham previously served as the state’s secretary of health—have made it easier for New Mexico to put together a consolidated effort to get things done, says David Morgan, media manager for the New Mexico Department of Health. Early in the spring, the state put together a team of 150 researchers and clinicians to advise its officials, and New Mexico has been “very proactive in implementing science-based decisions,” says Sara Del Valle, a mathematical and computational epidemiologist at Los Alamos National Laboratory.
Modeling the SARS-CoV-2 virus’s transmission patterns is important for understanding ways of containing the outbreak. So in the spring New Mexico created its own modeling project in collaboration with researchers at Sandia National Laboratories and Los Alamos, as well as Presbyterian Healthcare Services, a nonprofit health care system in the state. The team produces several types of models. One is a forecasting model that intends to predict what will happen, given current trends, Del Valle says. The others assist with what-if scenarios to provide insights on how different possible decisions, such as limiting in-person school class size, might affect the virus’s spread. “We’ve been doing a lot of modeling on school reopening,” Del Valle says. The researchers have also been assessing the impact of travelers in the state. Earlier this summer, New Mexico imposed a mandatory 14-day quarantine for most individuals coming in based on the models, and it is still required for people from areas with high numbers of cases.
The state’s models and its system for collecting and tracking data allow its policy makers to make forward-looking, evidence-based decisions, Scrase says. “I have friends in other states working on this, and they feel like they’re always reacting to the case counts, which are something that already happened. It’s like driving this car 90 miles per hour—only looking in the rearview mirror,” he says.
The scientists’ work has not become politicized in the way such projects have in other states. In Arizona, the research team modeling the course of COVID-19 was instructed by Governor Doug Ducey’s administration to halt its work in early May—just as Ducey was directing widespread reopening around the state. The numbers that the team’s models were providing “did not match the reopening approach,” says University of Arizona infectious disease epidemiologist Saskia Popescu. She notes that Ducey’s move was widely criticized as an attempt to suppress data that would contradict the reopening plans. The Arizona researchers were told to continue their work after widespread media coverage and public outcry.
In general, public pushback about activity restrictions in New Mexico has been more muted than in many other places. “We have our share of the political and cultural divide,” says Jeff Dye, president of the New Mexico Hospital Association, but “for the most part, our state has been pretty supportive of our governor.” According to a late July poll, Governor Lujan Grisham had a 53 percent approval rating for her handling of the COVID-19 pandemic.
There have been objections, however. In July the state notified the mayor of the small city of Grants that he was being fined $5,000 for refusing to adhere to its public health orders. The mayor, Martin Hicks, had held a Fourth of July parade in violation of state rules. Hicks is contesting the fine (a hearing is pending).
Despite all the precautions, one group that has been hit disproportionately hard by infections are Native Americans in the state. Although they represent only 11 percent of the state’s population, they accounted for more than half of the state’s initial cases, according to a report published in June. One likely reason is that multigenerational households are common among this group. Disease models from Del Valle’s team indicate that larger households, packed into smaller spaces, make it easier for the virus to spread.
New Mexico’s 22 Native American nations and tribes have met with Lujan Grisham and other agency leaders from the onset, says Brian Vallo, governor of the Pueblo of Acoma, which is one of them. Vallo issued a declaration of public health crisis on March 13 and closed the pueblo’s borders. In May, the state responded to an outbreak in the Navajo Nation by closing all roads coming into the city of Gallup, which serves as a gateway to nearby Native American jurisdictions. The Navajo Nation itself instituted strict health mandates such as mask wearing, stay-at-home orders and weekend lockdowns to contain the virus. “These efforts have significantly contributed toward our management of the virus and its impact on the community,” Vallo says. In early September the Navajo Nation reported its first period without a new case. And Michael Weahkee, director of the Indian Health Service, told the Navajo Times that not only had the nation flattened the curve, but it was “on the downhill slope.”
The state works with Native American groups to provide food and shelter to people who need to quarantine because of COVID-19 or who have lost income, Scrase says. The government set up housing in hotels, for example. Vallo says the Pueblo of Acoma has a “very strong relationship” with Governor Lujan Grisham’s office and her cabinet.
School openings have been a concern in the state, as they have all over in the U.S., and overall low case numbers have allowed New Mexico schools to begin reopening. Some did so with a remote-learning format in August, but the state has now given the go-ahead to school districts and charter schools in 25 counties to allow limited cohorts of students to rotate between remote and in-person learning. Small cohorts are used to reduce the number of students in a classroom at the same time and to maintain social distancing. In order to move to hybrid learning, schools must be located in counties with low rates of positive tests and new daily cases that follow below thresholds established by the New Mexico Department of Health. (As of September 9, most of the state qualified.) Schools must also have an approved plan to address instructional, social-emotional and family engagement. And they need to have comprehensive safety and cleaning protocols in place, as well as rapid response plans in the event of a positive case.
Ultimately, the focus on science may be the biggest factor in New Mexico’s resilience. Del Valle says the state has been “very proactive at implementing science-based decisions.” Scrase adds that “it’s really exciting to have a governor who values science and evidence.” Reopening decisions did take economic interests into account, he notes, but ultimately, they were driven by data about health and safety. “I’m really proud of that,” he says.
Read more about the coronavirus outbreak from Scientific American here. And read coverage from our international network of magazines here.


scientificamerican--2020-09-17--Earthquake Sounds Could Reveal How Quickly the Ocean Is Warming

There may be a new way to take the oceans ’ temperature : using sound .
Like the atmosphere , they are warming because of climate change , and they have absorbed about 90 percent of the excess heat trapped by greenhouse gases .
This alteration contributes to sea-level rise , imperils marine species and influences weather patterns .
But tracking the warming is tricky .
Ship-based observations capture only snapshots in time over a minuscule portion of the seas .
Satellite observations can not penetrate very deep below the surface .
The most detailed picture of ocean heat comes @ @ @ @ @ @ @ floats that have peppered the seas since the early 2000s .
These devices bob down to depths as low as 2,000 meters every 10 days , measuring temperature and other parameters .
But there are only about 4,000 floats , and they can not sample deeper parts of the oceans .
Now scientists at the California Institute of Technology and the Chinese Academy of Sciences think they have a more widespread way to detect ocean warming .
In a paper published on Thursday in Science , the researchers compare the speeds of sounds @ @ @ @ @ @ @ travels faster in water when it is warmer , differences in speed can reveal changing temperatures .
“ I am very impressed with the methods [ the study ’ s authors are ] using and the fact that they could pull this all off , ” says Frederik Simons , a Princeton University geophysicist , who was not involved in the research .
“ They ’ re opening up a whole new area of study.
” The notion of determining ocean heat with sound emerged in 1979 , when oceanographers Carl Wunsch and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ series of sea-based acoustic emitters and land-based receivers to measure the speed of sound waves and to calculate temperatures based on the results .
The idea never took off widely , partly because the acoustic sources were expensive and partly because of concerns that artificial noises would disturb marine animals , such as whales , that use sound to communicate .
Wenbo Wu , a postdoctoral researcher at Caltech , was inspired by those earlier efforts .
As a geophysicist , he realized that the seafloor produces its own regular source of sounds @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the seismic waves from the quakes , which travel through the earth ’ s crust .
They are low-frequency acoustic waves that move through the water .
“ I know these earthquakes are very powerful sources , ” Wu says .
“ So why not try to use the earthquakes ?
” The researchers tested the idea near Indonesia ’ s island of Nias , where the Indo-Australian Plate is bumping under the Sunda Plate .
They gathered acoustic data from 4,272 earthquakes of magnitude 3 or above from 2004 to 2016 and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ shared the same point of origin .
By comparing earthquakes that ruptured at the same spot over the years , Wu and his colleagues could pick out the mere fractions of a second that separated the acoustic wave speeds .
By modeling the changes , they found that the ocean near Nias is warming by about 0.08 degree Fahrenheit per decade—more than the 0.047 degree F of warming per decade suggested by Argo ’ s data .
The new numbers are likely more accurate , Wu says , because the other information sources @ @ @ @ @ @ @ degree F does not sound enormous , but these temperature changes are occurring over enormous volumes of water in the entire eastern Indian Ocean .
It takes considerable heat to warm that much water .
The new acoustic method is promising , says Bruce Howe , an oceanographer at the University of Hawaii at Manoa , who was not involved in the work .
Researchers may even be able to go back into seismological data taken decades ago in order to get a longer history of ocean temperatures .
But doing so will @ @ @ @ @ @ @ seismometers did not record the timing of waves as precisely as modern GPS-based equipment .
One way to catch more earthquake sounds might be to integrate underwater microphones , or hydrophones , into existing ocean-monitoring equipment .
Simons and his colleagues have deployed dozens of floating hydrophones in the ocean for a seismic-monitoring project called Mobile Earthquake Recorder in Marine Areas by Independent Divers ( MERMAID ) .
The biggest challenge is figuring out how to pinpoint the floats ’ precise location as they drift on the current , he says .
Overcoming @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in the gaps in what Argo floats and satellites can tell us , Wu says .
“ We really need different methods of the data as much as possible , ” he adds .

There may be a new way to take the oceans’ temperature: using sound. Like the atmosphere, they are warming because of climate change, and they have absorbed about 90 percent of the excess heat trapped by greenhouse gases. This alteration contributes to sea-level rise, imperils marine species and influences weather patterns.
But tracking the warming is tricky. Ship-based observations capture only snapshots in time over a minuscule portion of the seas. Satellite observations cannot penetrate very deep below the surface. The most detailed picture of ocean heat comes from Argo, a flotilla of autonomous floats that have peppered the seas since the early 2000s. These devices bob down to depths as low as 2,000 meters every 10 days, measuring temperature and other parameters. But there are only about 4,000 floats, and they cannot sample deeper parts of the oceans.
Now scientists at the California Institute of Technology and the Chinese Academy of Sciences think they have a more widespread way to detect ocean warming. In a paper published in September in Science, the researchers compare the speeds of sounds produced by undersea earthquakes. Because sound travels faster in water when it is warmer, differences in speed can reveal changing temperatures. “I am very impressed with the methods [the study’s authors are] using and the fact that they could pull this all off,” says Frederik Simons, a Princeton University geophysicist, who was not involved in the research. “They’re opening up a whole new area of study.”
The notion of determining ocean heat with sound emerged in 1979, when oceanographers Carl Wunsch and the late Walter Munk proposed using a series of sea-based acoustic emitters and land-based receivers to measure the speed of sound waves and to calculate temperatures based on the results. The idea never took off widely, partly because the acoustic sources were expensive and partly because of concerns that artificial noises would disturb marine animals, such as whales, that use sound to communicate.
Wenbo Wu, a postdoctoral researcher at Caltech, was inspired by those earlier efforts. As a geophysicist, he realized that the seafloor produces its own regular source of sounds: earthquakes. These sounds are not the seismic waves from the quakes, which travel through the earth’s crust. They are low-frequency acoustic waves that move through the water. “I know these earthquakes are very powerful sources,” Wu says. “So why not try to use the earthquakes?”
The researchers tested the idea near Indonesia’s island of Nias, where the Indo-Australian Plate is bumping under the Sunda Plate. They gathered acoustic data from 4,272 earthquakes of magnitude 3 or above from 2004 to 2016 and found 2,047 pairs of quakes that each shared the same point of origin. By comparing earthquakes that ruptured at the same spot over the years, Wu and his colleagues could pick out the mere fractions of a second that separated the acoustic wave speeds. By modeling the changes, they found that the ocean near Nias is warming by about 0.08 degree Fahrenheit per decade—more than the 0.047 degree F of warming per decade suggested by Argo’s data. The new numbers are likely more accurate, Wu says, because the other information sources were so limited. Less than one degree F does not sound enormous, but these temperature changes are occurring over enormous volumes of water in the entire eastern Indian Ocean. It takes considerable heat to warm that much water.
The new acoustic method is promising, says Bruce Howe, an oceanographer at the University of Hawaii at Manoa, who was not involved in the work. Researchers may even be able to go back into seismological data taken decades ago in order to get a longer history of ocean temperatures. But doing so will take hard work, especially because older seismometers did not record the timing of waves as precisely as modern GPS-based equipment.
One way to catch more earthquake sounds might be to integrate underwater microphones, or hydrophones, into existing ocean-monitoring equipment. Simons and his colleagues have deployed dozens of floating hydrophones in the ocean for a seismic-monitoring project called Mobile Earthquake Recorder in Marine Areas by Independent Divers (MERMAID). The biggest challenge is figuring out how to pinpoint the floats’ precise location as they drift on the current, he says.
Overcoming this challenge, however, would fill in the gaps in what Argo floats and satellites can tell us, Wu says. “We really need different methods of the data as much as possible,” he adds.
A version of this article with the title “Earthquake Sounds” was adapted for inclusion in the December 2020 issue of Scientific American.


scientificamerican--2020-09-17--Researchers Urge Federal Moonshot for Clean Energy

Columbia University researchers are urging the winner of this year ’ s presidential election to launch a moonshot-style mission to develop new clean energy technologies , a critical step on the path to net-zero carbon emissions .
The group , which includes two former Obama energy officials and staff from the nonprofit Information Technology and Innovation Foundation , this week unveiled a road map of policies that would allow “ the next administration and Congress to hit the ground running ” on clean-tech development .
The document cites the International Energy Agency ’ s July warning that of the 46 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ change , only six are being developed at sufficient speed .
Federal research put a man on the moon and led to the invention of the internet , but “ [ by ] comparison , the federal government has neglected energy innovation , ” the Columbia and ITIF researchers wrote , posing risks to the climate and the future of U.S. global leadership .
The United States has also failed to live up to its 2015 promises for increased energy-tech funding made alongside 23 other nations , having fallen billions of dollars short @ @ @ @ @ @ @ document ’ s recommendations , like increasing research and development of technologies like carbon capture and hydrogen , have gotten broad bipartisan support in Congress , the authors told E & E News .
“ We ’ ve seen some surprising commonality , ” said Julio Friedmann , a former deputy assistant secretary in the Energy Department ’ s Office of Fossil Energy and a current senior research scholar at Columbia ’ s Center on Global Energy Policy .
“ We think there ’ s appetite to grow those budgets.
” Congress should @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and demonstration over the next five years to $ 25 billion , or about 0.1 % of the nation ’ s gross domestic product—a move that would open “ a new chapter in the storied history of US innovation , ” he and other authors wrote .
But other policies listed in the report , like programs to attract capital and support demonstrations of early-stage technologies , have proved contentious among Republicans , who say they give the government undue power to pick winners .
The group ’ s 2021 recommendations are also @ @ @ @ @ @ @ although the authors said their report wasn ’ t commissioned by the campaign of Trump ’ s Democratic rival , former Vice President Joe Biden .
Immediately after taking office , the next president should issue an order establishing a “ national energy innovation mission ” and organizing an interagency task force to implement it , the group argued .
“ I do think this would be easier under a Biden administration , ” said Varun Sivaram , a senior research scholar at Columbia ’ s Center on Global Energy Policy .
To @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the early-stage technologies highlighted in the road map as deserving of ramped-up funding are carbon dioxide removal strategies .
Through 2022 , those would see a nearly 200 % increase in funding—the largest of any technology , more than clean agriculture systems , carbon capture and industrial decarbonization , which would get the second- , third- and fourth-biggest increases , respectively .
CO removal research could range from direct air capture to bioenergy paired with carbon capture or carbon mineralization , the researchers said , providing a “ hedge '' in case clean @ @ @ @ @ @ @ fast as necessary .
In 2018 , the United Nations ’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change wrote in a landmark assessment that “ negative emissions ” tech would be necessary to keep global warming within 1.5 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels .
But a separate report laying out decarbonization pathways for the next decade , published yesterday by an international coalition known as the Energy Transitions Commission , downplayed the importance of those technologies , while emphasizing forms of clean energy that are “ either already available or close to being brought to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ transportation and other sectors , combined with the development of hydrogen solutions , would serve as the main key for net-zero emissions , they said , with limited roles for carbon capture-equipped fossil fuels and bioenergy .
Public policies should focus on rapid development of those “ next wave ” technologies throughout the next decade , they wrote .
“ The main challenge of the next decade is to massively scale up clean energy provision and expand its use to all sectors of the economy , ” wrote Laëtitia de Villepin , an @ @ @ @ @ @ @ project manager on the Energy Transitions Commission ’ s report , in an email to E & E News .
Doing so would make reaching net-zero greenhouse gas emissions—by around 2050 in the developed world and by 2060 in emerging economies— “ undoubtedly technically possible , ” without relying heavily on negative emissions technologies , concluded the Energy Transitions Commission .
The coalition includes oil and gas majors like BP PLC and Royal Dutch Shell PLC , European utilities Iberdrola SA and National Grid PLC , mining company Rio Tinto PLC , Volvo @ @ @ @ @ @ @ clean energy research groups like the Rocky Mountain Institute .
The groups called on governments to commit about $ 1 trillion to $ 2 trillion in additional investment per year to hit the net-zero goal .
Beyond 2050 , negative-emissions tech would need to provide no more than 2 to 4 metric gigatons of CO per year , mainly to offset residual emissions from agriculture and carbon capture systems that don ’ t work at 100 % effectiveness , they wrote .
By contrast , global CO emissions were about 33 metric gigatons @ @ @ @ @ @ @ doubt that it is technically and economically possible to reach the zero-carbon economy , which we need by 2050 ; and zero must mean zero , not a plan which relies on the permanent and large-scale use of ‘ offsets , ’ ” Energy Transitions Commission co-chair Adair Turner said .
“ But action in the next decade is crucial—otherwise it will be too late.
” Reprinted from Climatewire with permission from E & E News .
E & E provides daily coverage of essential energy and environmental news at www.eenews.net .

Columbia University researchers are urging the winner of this year’s presidential election to launch a moonshot-style mission to develop new clean energy technologies, a critical step on the path to net-zero carbon emissions.
The group, which includes two former Obama energy officials and staff from the nonprofit Information Technology and Innovation Foundation, this week unveiled a road map of policies that would allow “the next administration and Congress to hit the ground running” on clean-tech development.
The document cites the International Energy Agency’s July warning that of the 46 energy technologies needed to forestall catastrophic climate change, only six are being developed at sufficient speed.
Federal research put a man on the moon and led to the invention of the internet, but “[by] comparison, the federal government has neglected energy innovation,” the Columbia and ITIF researchers wrote, posing risks to the climate and the future of U.S. global leadership.
The United States has also failed to live up to its 2015 promises for increased energy-tech funding made alongside 23 other nations, having fallen billions of dollars short, they noted.
Some of the document’s recommendations, like increasing research and development of technologies like carbon capture and hydrogen, have gotten broad bipartisan support in Congress, the authors told E&E News.
“We’ve seen some surprising commonality,” said Julio Friedmann, a former deputy assistant secretary in the Energy Department’s Office of Fossil Energy and a current senior research scholar at Columbia’s Center on Global Energy Policy. “We think there’s appetite to grow those budgets.”
Congress should triple funding for energy research, development and demonstration over the next five years to $25 billion, or about 0.1% of the nation’s gross domestic product—a move that would open “a new chapter in the storied history of US innovation,” he and other authors wrote.
But other policies listed in the report, like programs to attract capital and support demonstrations of early-stage technologies, have proved contentious among Republicans, who say they give the government undue power to pick winners.
The group’s 2021 recommendations are also unlikely to appeal to President Trump, although the authors said their report wasn’t commissioned by the campaign of Trump’s Democratic rival, former Vice President Joe Biden.
Immediately after taking office, the next president should issue an order establishing a “national energy innovation mission” and organizing an interagency task force to implement it, the group argued.
“I do think this would be easier under a Biden administration,” said Varun Sivaram, a senior research scholar at Columbia’s Center on Global Energy Policy.
To hedge or not to hedge?
Among the early-stage technologies highlighted in the road map as deserving of ramped-up funding are carbon dioxide removal strategies.
Through 2022, those would see a nearly 200% increase in funding—the largest of any technology, more than clean agriculture systems, carbon capture and industrial decarbonization, which would get the second-, third- and fourth-biggest increases, respectively.
CO 2 removal research could range from direct air capture to bioenergy paired with carbon capture or carbon mineralization, the researchers said, providing a “hedge" in case clean energy technologies don’t advance as fast as necessary.
In 2018, the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change wrote in a landmark assessment that “negative emissions” tech would be necessary to keep global warming within 1.5 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels.
But a separate report laying out decarbonization pathways for the next decade, published yesterday by an international coalition known as the Energy Transitions Commission, downplayed the importance of those technologies, while emphasizing forms of clean energy that are “either already available or close to being brought to market.”
Zero-carbon electrification of buildings, transportation and other sectors, combined with the development of hydrogen solutions, would serve as the main key for net-zero emissions, they said, with limited roles for carbon capture-equipped fossil fuels and bioenergy.
Public policies should focus on rapid development of those “next wave” technologies throughout the next decade, they wrote.
“The main challenge of the next decade is to massively scale up clean energy provision and expand its use to all sectors of the economy,” wrote Laëtitia de Villepin, an associate at energy advisory firm Systemiq and project manager on the Energy Transitions Commission’s report, in an email to E&E News.
Doing so would make reaching net-zero greenhouse gas emissions—by around 2050 in the developed world and by 2060 in emerging economies—“undoubtedly technically possible,” without relying heavily on negative emissions technologies, concluded the Energy Transitions Commission.
The coalition includes oil and gas majors like BP PLC and Royal Dutch Shell PLC, European utilities Iberdrola SA and National Grid PLC, mining company Rio Tinto PLC, Volvo AB, Bank of America Corp. and clean energy research groups like the Rocky Mountain Institute.
The groups called on governments to commit about $1 trillion to $2 trillion in additional investment per year to hit the net-zero goal.
Beyond 2050, negative-emissions tech would need to provide no more than 2 to 4 metric gigatons of CO 2 per year, mainly to offset residual emissions from agriculture and carbon capture systems that don’t work at 100% effectiveness, they wrote. By contrast, global CO 2 emissions were about 33 metric gigatons in 2019.
“There is no doubt that it is technically and economically possible to reach the zero-carbon economy, which we need by 2050; and zero must mean zero, not a plan which relies on the permanent and large-scale use of ‘offsets,’” Energy Transitions Commission co-chair Adair Turner said. “But action in the next decade is crucial—otherwise it will be too late.”
Reprinted from Climatewire with permission from E&E News. E&E provides daily coverage of essential energy and environmental news at www.eenews.net.


scientificamerican--2020-09-17--When Politics Distorts Science

When Politics Distorts Science

I knew things had changed at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in early 2018 when my routine request to interview a CDC scientist was held up for days on end .
I ’ d been interviewing researchers there for decades and had never before hit a delay that meant missing my deadline .
When I asked what was going on , I was told , off-the-record , that media requests were now being routed from the CDC press office in Atlanta up to the bosses at the Department of Health and Human Services ( HHS ) in Washington @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , I thought , that ’ s insane .
And this was well before the COVID-19 pandemic , lockdowns and mask debates made the nuts-and-bolts field of epidemiology a politically incendiary topic .
Still , I never imagined the level of Big Brothering would extend to the CDC ’ s most essential tool for communicating science : its world-class weekly bulletin known as the MMWR—for Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report .
( It was the MMWR that first reported in 1981 a spike in cases of opportunistic infections in gay men—the first glimmer @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ) On Friday night , Politico revealed that even the MMWR is being routed to political overseers at HHS to soften science and health recommendations that might contradict the president ’ s often dishonest and sometimes dangerous messaging about the pandemic , among other CDC matters .
Such interference is “ unprecedented , ” says Tom Frieden , the infectious disease specialist who served as CDC director from June 2009 through January 2017 .
While politics and public health inevitably intersect , Frieden says , “ I can tell you that in my @ @ @ @ @ @ @ read the MMWR before it was published or before the media got it.
” According to reporting by Politico and the Washington Post , which have obtained leaked e-mails , political operatives at HHS have attempted to add caveats to the findings of CDC scientists and tried to slow down the release of politically inconvenient data , including a negative report on hydroxychloroquine—the malaria drug wrongly touted by the president as a COVID-19 therapy—and data on children spreading the virus .
Who are these political overseers , filtering and twisting federal science ?
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ appointed Michael Caputo to be assistant secretary for public affairs at HHS .
Caputo has no training in science or medicine .
( Neither , for that matter , does his boss , HHS Secretary Alex Azar , a lawyer who was a pharmaceutical industry lobbyist and executive . )
Unlike Azar ’ s appointment , Caputo ’ s did not require Senate approval .
What were Caputo ’ s qualifications to manage communications for an 80,000-employee federal department and to direct the nation ’ s health messaging during a pandemic ?
His @ @ @ @ @ @ @ years as president of his own PR firm .
It doesn ’ t mention his association with convicted felons Roger Stone , who served as Caputo ’ s mentor , and Paul Manafort , with whom he worked on Trump ’ s 2016 campaign .
Nor does it mention his earlier work helping to burnish the image of Vladimir Putin—a project he admitted to his hometown paper , the Buffalo News , that “ I ’ m not proud of.
” The same 2016 article noted that Caputo then owed U.S. government more @ @ @ @ @ @ @ quotes him as follows : “ If I were to run for office , my skeletons would come dancing out of the closet in a can-can.
” Caputo was doing some fast tap dancing this week after he let loose with bizarre remarks on Facebook Live and Twitter over the weekend .
He accused the CDC of harboring an anti-Trump “ resistance unit , ” warned of violence by armed left-wing hit squads after the election and encouraged Trump supporters to prepare by buying bullets now : “ If you carry guns , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ because it ’ s going to be hard to get.
” Both his Facebook and Twitter accounts have since been deleted .
With # CAPUTOMUSTRESIGN trending on Twitter , Caputo apologized to HHS staff on Tuesday for his remarks about an internal cabal .
On Wednesday , the department announced he was taking a 60-day medical leave of absence .
Also departing was the scientist Caputo had hired to challenge and edit MMWR reports and CDC statements that might contradict White House positions .
Paul Alexander has worked under contract as a part-time @ @ @ @ @ @ @ McMaster ’ s University in Canada .
E-mails leaked to Politico show that Alexander had attempted to muzzle public statements by Anthony Fauci , the government ’ s leading infectious disease expert , and downplay the risks of kids and college students spreading COVID-19 and the need to test young people for the infection .
In one leaked e-mail .
Alexander writes with exaggerated certainty : “ There is no data , none , zero , across the entire world , that shows children especially young children , spread this virus to other @ @ @ @ @ @ @ their teachers.
” In July , the Washington Post reported that Alexander scolded the CDC for warning about the coronavirus ’ risk to pregnant women , writing in an e-mail that the warning would “ frighten women … as if the President and his administration can ’ t fix this and it ’ s getting worse.
” It ’ s clear that political minders such as Caputo and Alexander have succeeded to some degree in tilting federal health policies and statements .
The emergency use authorization of hydroxychloroquine for severe COVID-19 back in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , is one example .
The FDA reversed itself in May when evidence showed the drug likely caused more harm than good .
Frieden points to other examples .
“ What is unprecedented—and deeply disturbing— is things on the CDC website being written by people who aren ’ t public health experts , he says .
“ I think that is analogous to someone vandalizing a national monument and scrawling graffiti on it.
” He cites three examples : omitting a mention that choir singing represents a significant risk in the reopening of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ House asked for that , ” Frieden says .
Second , a statement on the CDC website about the importance of kids going back to school that reads more like a position paper than a public health analysis .
Third , “ and most egregious , ” he adds , is the suggestion that people who have been in contact with someone who tested positive for the coronavirus do not need to be tested if they have no symptoms .
“ This clearly was the writing of people in Washington who don ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ says .
Better information , urging that all contacts be tested , appears elsewhere on the CDC site .
Even if November ’ s election should bring an end to efforts to run federal science and health policy through a political distortion field , the reputational damage may be done .
Will reporters like me be able to look at the MMWR in the same way as before ?
More importantly , will the American public be able to trust federal assessments of coronavirus treatments and vaccines ?
An NBC/SurveyMonkey poll out on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ vaccine : only 39 percent of poll respondents said they would get it , down from 44 percent in August .
As Richard Besser , who was acting CDC director in 2009 , writes in Scientific American , “ we now see the undermining of the public ’ s trust of our key institutions at the very moment we should be shoring up that trust .
”

I knew things had changed at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in early 2018 when my routine request to interview a CDC scientist was held up for days on end. I’d been interviewing researchers there for decades and had never before hit a delay that meant missing my deadline. When I asked what was going on, I was told, off-the-record, that media requests were now being routed from the CDC press office in Atlanta up to the bosses at the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) in Washington, D.C., for approval.
Yikes, I thought, that’s insane. And this was well before the COVID-19 pandemic, lockdowns and mask debates made the nuts-and-bolts field of epidemiology a politically incendiary topic.
Still, I never imagined the level of Big Brothering would extend to the CDC’s most essential tool for communicating science: its world-class weekly bulletin known as the MMWR—for Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report. (It was the MMWR that first reported in 1981 a spike in cases of opportunistic infections in gay men—the first glimmer of HIV/AIDS in the United States.) On Friday night, Politico revealed that even the MMWR is being routed to political overseers at HHS to soften science and health recommendations that might contradict the president’s often dishonest and sometimes dangerous messaging about the pandemic, among other CDC matters.
Such interference is “unprecedented,” says Tom Frieden, the infectious disease specialist who served as CDC director from June 2009 through January 2017. While politics and public health inevitably intersect, Frieden says, “I can tell you that in my eight years, no political appointee ever read the MMWR before it was published or before the media got it.”
According to reporting by Politico and the Washington Post, which have obtained leaked e-mails, political operatives at HHS have attempted to add caveats to the findings of CDC scientists and tried to slow down the release of politically inconvenient data, including a negative report on hydroxychloroquine—the malaria drug wrongly touted by the president as a COVID-19 therapy—and data on children spreading the virus.
Who are these political overseers, filtering and twisting federal science? Back in April, the Trump administration appointed Michael Caputo to be assistant secretary for public affairs at HHS. Caputo has no training in science or medicine. (Neither, for that matter, does his boss, HHS Secretary Alex Azar, a lawyer who was a pharmaceutical industry lobbyist and executive.) Unlike Azar’s appointment, Caputo’s did not require Senate approval.
What were Caputo’s qualifications to manage communications for an 80,000-employee federal department and to direct the nation’s health messaging during a pandemic? His anodyne official HHS bio describes his 17 years as president of his own PR firm. It doesn’t mention his association with convicted felons Roger Stone, who served as Caputo’s mentor, and Paul Manafort, with whom he worked on Trump’s 2016 campaign. Nor does it mention his earlier work helping to burnish the image of Vladimir Putin—a project he admitted to his hometown paper, the Buffalo News, that “I’m not proud of.” The same 2016 article noted that Caputo then owed U.S. government more than $100,000 in back taxes and quotes him as follows: “If I were to run for office, my skeletons would come dancing out of the closet in a can-can.”
Caputo was doing some fast tap dancing this week after he let loose with bizarre remarks on Facebook Live and Twitter over the weekend. He accused the CDC of harboring an anti-Trump “resistance unit,” warned of violence by armed left-wing hit squads after the election and encouraged Trump supporters to prepare by buying bullets now: “If you carry guns, buy ammunition, ladies and gentlemen, because it’s going to be hard to get.” Both his Facebook and Twitter accounts have since been deleted.
With #CAPUTOMUSTRESIGN trending on Twitter, Caputo apologized to HHS staff on Tuesday for his remarks about an internal cabal. On Wednesday, the department announced he was taking a 60-day medical leave of absence.
Also departing was the scientist Caputo had hired to challenge and edit MMWR reports and CDC statements that might contradict White House positions. Paul Alexander has worked under contract as a part-time assistant professor of health research methodologies at McMaster’s University in Canada.
E-mails leaked to Politico show that Alexander had attempted to muzzle public statements by Anthony Fauci, the government’s leading infectious disease expert, and downplay the risks of kids and college students spreading COVID-19 and the need to test young people for the infection. In one leaked e-mail. Alexander writes with exaggerated certainty: “There is no data, none, zero, across the entire world, that shows children especially young children, spread this virus to other children, or to adults or to their teachers.”
In July, the Washington Post reported that Alexander scolded the CDC for warning about the coronavirus’ risk to pregnant women, writing in an e-mail that the warning would “frighten women … as if the President and his administration can’t fix this and it’s getting worse.”
It’s clear that political minders such as Caputo and Alexander have succeeded to some degree in tilting federal health policies and statements. The emergency use authorization of hydroxychloroquine for severe COVID-19 back in March by the Food and Drug Administration, is one example. The FDA reversed itself in May when evidence showed the drug likely caused more harm than good.
Frieden points to other examples. “What is unprecedented—and deeply disturbing— is things on the CDC website being written by people who aren’t public health experts, he says. “I think that is analogous to someone vandalizing a national monument and scrawling graffiti on it.”
He cites three examples: omitting a mention that choir singing represents a significant risk in the reopening of houses of worship. “The White House asked for that,” Frieden says. Second, a statement on the CDC website about the importance of kids going back to school that reads more like a position paper than a public health analysis.
Third, “and most egregious,” he adds, is the suggestion that people who have been in contact with someone who tested positive for the coronavirus do not need to be tested if they have no symptoms. “This clearly was the writing of people in Washington who don’t understand public health,” Frieden says. Better information, urging that all contacts be tested, appears elsewhere on the CDC site.*
Even if November’s election should bring an end to efforts to run federal science and health policy through a political distortion field, the reputational damage may be done. Will reporters like me be able to look at the MMWR in the same way as before? More importantly, will the American public be able to trust federal assessments of coronavirus treatments and vaccines?
An NBC/SurveyMonkey poll out on Tuesday shows declining trust in the promised vaccine: only 39 percent of poll respondents said they would get it, down from 44 percent in August.
As Richard Besser, who was acting CDC director in 2009, writes in Scientific American, “we now see the undermining of the public’s trust of our key institutions at the very moment we should be shoring up that trust.”
*Update: On September 18, the CDC "clarified" the recommendation, saying that people who were in close contact with someone infected with the coronavirus should be tested for the virus, whether they have symptoms or not.


scientificamerican--2020-09-17--Scientists Spot Giant Planet Orbiting Dead Star's Corpse

We may now have direct evidence that planets can survive unscathed the violent churn that attends their host star ’ s death .
Astronomers have spotted signs of an intact giant planet circling a superdense stellar corpse known as a white dwarf , a new study reports .
The white dwarf in question , called WD 1856 , is part of a three-star system that lies about 80 light-years from Earth .
The newly detected , Jupiter-size exoplanet candidate , WD 1856 b , is about seven times larger than the white dwarf and zips around it once every 34 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ got very close to its white dwarf and managed to stay in one piece , '' study lead author Andrew Vanderburg , an assistant professor of astronomy at the University of Wisconsin-Madison , said in a statement .
“ The white dwarf creation process destroys nearby planets , and anything that later gets too close is usually torn apart by the star ’ s immense gravity , ” Vanderburg said .
“ We still have many questions about how WD 1856 b arrived at its current location without meeting one of those fates.
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ potentially ) Vanderburg and his colleagues found WD 1856 b using NASA ’ s Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite ( TESS ) , which hunts for alien worlds by noting the tiny brightness dips they cause when transiting , or crossing their host stars ’ faces from the spacecraft ’ s perspective .
The team then studied the system in infrared light using NASA ’ s Spitzer Space Telescope shortly before the observatory ’ s January 2020 decommissioning .
The Spitzer data showed that WD 1856 b is emitting no infrared glow of its @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a planet rather than a low-mass star or a brown dwarf , a body that straddles the hazy line between planets and stars .
Still , WD 1856 b remains a candidate planet for now , awaiting confirmation by further analyses or observations .
You wouldn ’ t necessarily expect white dwarfs to be promising targets for TESS and other planet hunters , considering the process that forms them .
When sunlike stars run out of hydrogen fuel , they bloat into red giants that engulf and incinerate anything orbiting nearby .
For @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Mercury , Venus and perhaps Earth when it becomes a red giant , about 5 billion years from now .
Red giants eventually collapse into white dwarfs , which typically pack the mass of our sun into a sphere only slightly bigger than Earth .
It ’ s therefore safe to say that WD 1856 b didn ’ t form at its current location ; the object would never have survived WD 1856 ’ s red-giant phase .
Indeed , the study team ’ s calculations suggest that the candidate planet must have @ @ @ @ @ @ @ from the star than its current location , then migrated in .
“ We ’ ve known for a long time that after white dwarfs are born , distant small objects such as asteroids and comets can scatter inward towards these stars .
They ’ re usually pulled apart by a white dwarf ’ s strong gravity and turn into a debris disk , ” study coauthor Siyi Xu , an assistant astronomer at the international Gemini Observatory in Hawaii , said in the same statement .
“ That ’ s why I @ @ @ @ @ @ @ about this system , ” Xu said .
“ We ’ ve seen hints that planets could scatter inward , too , but this appears to be the first time we ’ ve seen a planet that made the whole journey intact.
” It ’ s unclear what gave WD 1856 b its inward push .
Possibilities include nudges from the other two stars in the WD 1856 system and a brief interaction with an intruding “ rogue star , ” wrote team members in the new study , which was published online @ @ @ @ @ @ @ journal Nature .
But “ the most likely case involves several other Jupiter-size bodies close to WD 1856 b ’ s original orbit , ” coauthor Juliette Becker , a planetary scientist at the California Institute of Technology in Pasadena , said in the same statement .
“ The gravitational influence of objects that big could easily allow for the instability you ’ d need to knock a planet inward , ” Becker said .
“ But at this point , we still have more theories than data points.
” No other planets @ @ @ @ @ @ @ system , but that doesn ’ t mean none are there , study team members said .
WD 1856 b ’ s apparent existence has exciting consequences for planetary scientists and astrobiologists .
For example , if a gas giant can survive a sunlike star ’ s death , then huddle close enough to the burnt-out corpse to suck up significant warmth , couldn ’ t a rocky , Earth-like world do so as well ?
Vanderburg and other researchers investigated this possibility in a companion paper , which was published today in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , led by Cornell University researchers Lisa Kaltenegger and Ryan MacDonald , used computer modeling to simulate the looks that NASA ’ s upcoming James Webb Space Telescope could get at a hypothetical rocky world orbiting in the “ habitable zone ” of WD 1856 .
The habitable zone is that just-right range of orbital distances where liquid water could be stable on a world ’ s surface .
The researchers determined that Webb , a $ 9.8 billion flagship observatory scheduled to launch in October 2021 , could spot the signatures of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ planet ’ s air after observing just five transits .
“ Even more impressively , Webb could detect gas combinations potentially indicating biological activity on such a world in as few as 25 transits , ” Kaltenegger , the director of Cornell ’ s Carl Sagan Institute , said in the same statement .
“ WD 1856 b suggests planets may survive white dwarfs ’ chaotic histories , ” Kaltenegger said .
“ In the right conditions , those worlds could maintain conditions favorable for life longer than the time scale predicted for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ new intriguing possibilities for worlds orbiting these dead stellar cores.
” Copyright 2020 Space.com , a Future company .
All rights reserved .
This material may not be published , broadcast , rewritten or redistributed .

We may now have direct evidence that planets can survive unscathed the violent churn that attends their host star’s death.
Astronomers have spotted signs of an intact giant planet circling a superdense stellar corpse known as a white dwarf, a new study reports.
The white dwarf in question, called WD 1856, is part of a three-star system that lies about 80 light-years from Earth. The newly detected, Jupiter-size exoplanet candidate, WD 1856 b, is about seven times larger than the white dwarf and zips around it once every 34 hours.
“WD 1856 b somehow got very close to its white dwarf and managed to stay in one piece," study lead author Andrew Vanderburg, an assistant professor of astronomy at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, said in a statement.
“The white dwarf creation process destroys nearby planets, and anything that later gets too close is usually torn apart by the star’s immense gravity,” Vanderburg said. “We still have many questions about how WD 1856 b arrived at its current location without meeting one of those fates.”
The first of its kind (potentially)
Vanderburg and his colleagues found WD 1856 b using NASA’s Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS), which hunts for alien worlds by noting the tiny brightness dips they cause when transiting, or crossing their host stars’ faces from the spacecraft’s perspective.
The team then studied the system in infrared light using NASA’s Spitzer Space Telescope shortly before the observatory’s January 2020 decommissioning. The Spitzer data showed that WD 1856 b is emitting no infrared glow of its own, suggesting that the object is a planet rather than a low-mass star or a brown dwarf, a body that straddles the hazy line between planets and stars.
Still, WD 1856 b remains a candidate planet for now, awaiting confirmation by further analyses or observations.
You wouldn’t necessarily expect white dwarfs to be promising targets for TESS and other planet hunters, considering the process that forms them.
When sunlike stars run out of hydrogen fuel, they bloat into red giants that engulf and incinerate anything orbiting nearby. For example, our own sun will destroy Mercury, Venus and perhaps Earth when it becomes a red giant, about 5 billion years from now. Red giants eventually collapse into white dwarfs, which typically pack the mass of our sun into a sphere only slightly bigger than Earth.
It’s therefore safe to say that WD 1856 b didn’t form at its current location; the object would never have survived WD 1856’s red-giant phase. Indeed, the study team’s calculations suggest that the candidate planet must have been born about 50 times farther away from the star than its current location, then migrated in.
“We’ve known for a long time that after white dwarfs are born, distant small objects such as asteroids and comets can scatter inward towards these stars. They’re usually pulled apart by a white dwarf’s strong gravity and turn into a debris disk,” study coauthor Siyi Xu, an assistant astronomer at the international Gemini Observatory in Hawaii, said in the same statement.
“That’s why I was so excited when Andrew told me about this system,” Xu said. “We’ve seen hints that planets could scatter inward, too, but this appears to be the first time we’ve seen a planet that made the whole journey intact.”
It’s unclear what gave WD 1856 b its inward push. Possibilities include nudges from the other two stars in the WD 1856 system and a brief interaction with an intruding “rogue star,” wrote team members in the new study, which was published online today (Sept. 16) in the journal Nature.
But “the most likely case involves several other Jupiter-size bodies close to WD 1856 b’s original orbit,” coauthor Juliette Becker, a planetary scientist at the California Institute of Technology in Pasadena, said in the same statement.
“The gravitational influence of objects that big could easily allow for the instability you’d need to knock a planet inward,” Becker said. “But at this point, we still have more theories than data points.”
No other planets have been spotted in the WD 1856 system, but that doesn’t mean none are there, study team members said.
Rocky planet survivors, too?
WD 1856 b’s apparent existence has exciting consequences for planetary scientists and astrobiologists. For example, if a gas giant can survive a sunlike star’s death, then huddle close enough to the burnt-out corpse to suck up significant warmth, couldn’t a rocky, Earth-like world do so as well?
Vanderburg and other researchers investigated this possibility in a companion paper, which was published today in The Astrophysical Journal Letters. The team, led by Cornell University researchers Lisa Kaltenegger and Ryan MacDonald, used computer modeling to simulate the looks that NASA’s upcoming James Webb Space Telescope could get at a hypothetical rocky world orbiting in the “habitable zone” of WD 1856.
The habitable zone is that just-right range of orbital distances where liquid water could be stable on a world’s surface.
The researchers determined that Webb, a $9.8 billion flagship observatory scheduled to launch in October 2021, could spot the signatures of oxygen and carbon dioxide in such a planet’s air after observing just five transits.
“Even more impressively, Webb could detect gas combinations potentially indicating biological activity on such a world in as few as 25 transits,” Kaltenegger, the director of Cornell’s Carl Sagan Institute, said in the same statement.
“WD 1856 b suggests planets may survive white dwarfs’ chaotic histories,” Kaltenegger said. “In the right conditions, those worlds could maintain conditions favorable for life longer than the time scale predicted for Earth. Now we can explore many new intriguing possibilities for worlds orbiting these dead stellar cores.”
Copyright 2020 Space.com, a Future company. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.


scientificamerican--2020-09-17--The Sanctuary of Trees, How to Argue with a Racist and Other New Books

The Life & Love of the Forest by Lewis Blackwell Abrams , 2020 ( $ 50 ) For those who have spent months indoors during the pandemic , walks in the woods have been a rare source of relief .
This artful book is a captivating tribute to all forests that , even if we ca n't travel to them , soothe the mind .
Author Blackwell goes well beyond the standard coffee-table book fare and explores the value of forests as ecosystems , the products that they provide , and their symbolic role in pop culture and human emotional @ @ @ @ @ @ @ global photographers captures the many moods of the woods , from fragile stillness to riotous color and lively habitat .
Forests are the engines of our livable environment , Blackwell writes , and we must fight to protect and rebuild them .
How to Argue with a Racist : What Our Genes Do ( and Don ’ t ) Say about Human Difference by Adam Rutherford The Experiment , 2020 ( $ 21.95 ) Racists often cite pseudoscientific arguments for their bigotry .
But when properly understood , biology is antiracist , geneticist @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on the science of human variety focuses in turn on skin color , genealogy , athleticism and intelligence .
From the physiological factors that influence sprinting ability to the surprisingly interconnected family tree of humanity , research reveals that our differences depend on environmental factors and genetic quirks of local communities , not a biological notion of race .
Rutherford equips readers with the tools to discredit the prejudices of both racists and well-intentioned people .
Despite its fraught history , scientists ' understanding of genes has long since converged on one truth @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a social construct , has no foundation in science .
—Scott Hershberger Ace : What Asexuality Reveals about Desire , Society , and the Meaning of Sex by Angela Chen Beacon Press , 2020 ( $ 26.95 ) Asexual people have always existed , but they have long gone unacknowledged .
Even Alfred Kinsey , when developing his scale for sexual orientation , called asexual people Group X and excluded them from the spectrum .
Journalist Chen interviewed nearly 100 asexual people—or “ aces ” —to fill in this historical gap and present @ @ @ @ @ @ @ scientific and cultural context .
For example , Chen points to how the definition of hypoactive sexual desire disorder in the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders ( DSM-5 ) , the American Psychiatric Association 's current compendium of psychological conditions , reinforces the idea that low sexual desire is something that needs to be cured .
Although asexuality is often described as a lack of sexual attraction , Chen argues that “ we must consider that negative space can be more than an absent image.
” —Karen Kwon Crime Dot Com @ @ @ @ @ @ @ How Hacking Went Global by Geoff White Reaktion Books , 2020 ( $ 27.50 ) Journalist White uses the stories of different hacks , dating from the 1980s to the 2016 election , to connect illicit activity on the earliest Internet forums to today 's cyberattacks by hacktivists and state-sanctioned hacking teams .
He humanizes this history by highlighting the people behind the tech : the Filipino student who unleashed the Love Bug , one of the first global cyberattacks to rely on psychological manipulation ; the former cybercriminal who worked with the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a dark Web black market for illegal drugs ( a scheme that involved him faking his own death ) ; and the audio producer who lost thousands of dollars in a scam that exploited personal information stolen from telecommunications company TalkTalk .
To secure , or “ harden , ” systems against cybercrime , White writes , “ it 's humans , not necessarily computers , that we need to harden up.
” —Sophie Bushwick

The Life & Love of the Forest
by Lewis Blackwell
Abrams, 2020 ($50)
For those who have spent months indoors during the pandemic, walks in the woods have been a rare source of relief. This artful book is a captivating tribute to all forests that, even if we can't travel to them, soothe the mind. Author Blackwell goes well beyond the standard coffee-table book fare and explores the value of forests as ecosystems, the products that they provide, and their symbolic role in pop culture and human emotional well-being. The collection of images from global photographers captures the many moods of the woods, from fragile stillness to riotous color and lively habitat. Forests are the engines of our livable environment, Blackwell writes, and we must fight to protect and rebuild them.
How to Argue with a Racist: What Our Genes Do (and Don’t) Say about Human Difference
by Adam Rutherford
The Experiment, 2020 ($21.95)
Racists often cite pseudoscientific arguments for their bigotry. But when properly understood, biology is antiracist, geneticist Rutherford shows. His timely crash course on the science of human variety focuses in turn on skin color, genealogy, athleticism and intelligence. From the physiological factors that influence sprinting ability to the surprisingly interconnected family tree of humanity, research reveals that our differences depend on environmental factors and genetic quirks of local communities, not a biological notion of race. Rutherford equips readers with the tools to discredit the prejudices of both racists and well-intentioned people. Despite its fraught history, scientists' understanding of genes has long since converged on one truth: race, while very real as a social construct, has no foundation in science. —Scott Hershberger
Ace: What Asexuality Reveals about Desire, Society, and the Meaning of Sex
by Angela Chen
Beacon Press, 2020 ($26.95)
Asexual people have always existed, but they have long gone unacknowledged. Even Alfred Kinsey, when developing his scale for sexual orientation, called asexual people Group X and excluded them from the spectrum. Journalist Chen interviewed nearly 100 asexual people—or “aces”—to fill in this historical gap and present various aspects of the asexual experience in scientific and cultural context. For example, Chen points to how the definition of hypoactive sexual desire disorder in the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (DSM-5), the American Psychiatric Association's current compendium of psychological conditions, reinforces the idea that low sexual desire is something that needs to be cured. Although asexuality is often described as a lack of sexual attraction, Chen argues that “we must consider that negative space can be more than an absent image.” —Karen Kwon
Crime Dot Com: From Viruses to Vote Rigging, How Hacking Went Global
by Geoff White
Reaktion Books, 2020 ($27.50)
Journalist White uses the stories of different hacks, dating from the 1980s to the 2016 election, to connect illicit activity on the earliest Internet forums to today's cyberattacks by hacktivists and state-sanctioned hacking teams. He humanizes this history by highlighting the people behind the tech: the Filipino student who unleashed the Love Bug, one of the first global cyberattacks to rely on psychological manipulation; the former cybercriminal who worked with the FBI to bring down Silk Road, a dark Web black market for illegal drugs (a scheme that involved him faking his own death); and the audio producer who lost thousands of dollars in a scam that exploited personal information stolen from telecommunications company TalkTalk. To secure, or “harden,” systems against cybercrime, White writes, “it's humans, not necessarily computers, that we need to harden up.” —Sophie Bushwick