scientificamerican--2020-10-09--What China's Speedy COVID Vaccine Deployment Means for the Pandemic

In the race for a coronavirus vaccine , China is making bold promises .
A Chinese health official has publicly pledged that an effective coronavirus vaccine will be available by the end of the year .
The country has also committed to sharing its vaccines with more than a dozen nations , particularly low-income countries that it has close ties with .
But even if a vaccine is ready soon , some scientists question whether the country will be able to produce enough doses to meet its international commitments , and if deals with individual countries are the best way @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Guizhen , the chief biosafety expert at China ’ s Center for Disease Control and Prevention in Beijing , told Chinese state media last month that two vaccines developed by Shanghai pharmaceutical group Sinopharm will be available in November or December .
The vaccines are being tested in countries including the United Arab Emirates , Bahrain , Peru and Argentina .
On 9 October , China also announced that it had joined COVID-19 Vaccine Global Access ( COVAX ) , the collaborative effort by Gavi , the Vaccine Alliance , together with the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ WHO , which is aiming to provide 2 billion doses of vaccine to the most vulnerable people and to health-care workers , especially in poor countries .
Some 80 wealthy ‘ self-funding ’ countries have committed to support the initiative , with the notable exception of the United States .
It is not clear yet whether China will commit money or vaccines , and how much .
Chinese vaccine makers have developed four of the roughly dozen leading candidate vaccines that are in the final stages of testing worldwide .
No vaccine has @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that are needed to firmly establish safety and efficacy .
But that hasn ’ t stopped hundreds of thousands of people in China and abroad being injected with one of the four Chinese vaccine candidates under policies known as emergency-use authorization .
The vaccines include those developed by Sinopharm , plus a jab developed by Beijing-based vaccine maker Sinovac and another by CanSino Biologics in Tianjin .
Scientists say the country ’ s drug regulator , which is part of the Ministry of Health , needs to wait for robust trial data that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ before granting vaccines full approval .
In an e-mail to Nature , Wu said that the health ministry will await the results of large trials before approving them for sale .
“ Until then , there are still uncertainties , ” she says .
Outside China , expectations are high that a successful Chinese vaccine will soon be available .
Sinopharm ’ s large-scale trials in Argentina , which started last month , have received widespread media coverage , says Eduardo Spitzer , the scientific director of Laboratorio Elea Phoenix in Buenos Aires @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ We are working as fast as possible , but without losing quality in the data obtained from the trials.
” China ’ s leader Xi Jinping told the World Health Assembly in May that its vaccines would be a “ global public good ” , and the list of countries with which China has promised to share its vaccines continues to grow .
But scientists question whether vaccine-makers will have enough doses to fulfil those commitments .
In the past few months , government leaders , including Xi and Premier Li Keqiang @ @ @ @ @ @ @ vaccine accessible to the Philippines , Cambodia , Burma , Thailand , Vietnam and Laos , as well as African and Latin American countries .
Chinese vaccine makers also have agreements with the countries where vaccines are being tested .
Sinovac , which has a vaccine in phase III trial and says results should be out by the end of November , has a deal to deliver 60 million doses to hard-hit São Paolo , Brazil , and has committed 40 million doses to Indonesia by March .
Spitzer says that details of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ vaccines to Argentina are confidential .
Zheng Zhongwei , the head of the Chinese government ’ s COVID-19 vaccine task force , said last month that China will have capacity to produce 600 million doses by the end of the year , and one billion next year .
But given that the country has a population of 1.4 billion people , most of whom have not been vaccinated , that would not leave many doses available for export .
The numbers don ’ t add up , says Klaus Stöhr , who led @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Health Organization ( WHO ) for 15 years and is now retired .
“ The number of doses available in China will by far be too little to permit export unless a political decision is taken to ship vaccines to overseas despite still-existing vaccine needs in China , ” he says .
China might also use its deals with individual countries to gain future political or economic leverage , says Jerome Kim , director-general of the International Vaccine Institute in Seoul .
“ That would be regrettable , ” he says .
But @ @ @ @ @ @ @ join COVAX .
“ When Xi said he would make vaccines a ‘ global public good , ’ he said the right words .
Joining COVAX turns those words into action , ” he says .
If China commits doses of vaccines , they will need to be approved by the WHO and CEPI .
Currently none of the four leading Chinese candidates are on the list of vaccines supported by CEPI .
If China provides vaccines , it will also have to increase its capacity .
“ Lots of questions remain , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are given to more people , their safety and effectiveness needs to be firmly established , say Kieny and other scientists .
They have also criticized Sinopharm for claiming its widespread vaccinations under emergency use provisions show that its two jabs are safe and effective .
The company says there have been no infections among the tens of thousands of people that it vaccinated before they went abroad to countries affected by the coronavirus , even though no data supporting this claim has been made available .
“ I would give personally no @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ” says Marie-Paule Kieny , a vaccine researcher at INSERM , France ’ s national biomedical research agency in Paris .
Conclusions are hard to draw from such observations because there ’ s a strong risk of bias , says Paul Offit , a vaccine researcher at the Children ’ s Hospital of Philadelphia in Pennsylvania .
Patients who were vaccinated might assume that any flu-like symptoms they have could not have arisen from a SARS-CoV-2 infection , and not report them .
“ They might just think , ‘ I got vaccinated @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , ’ ” says Offit .
Sinopharm did not respond to Nature ’ s requests for comment .
In response to Nature ’ s questions about whether vaccines might be approved on the basis of those preliminary data , Wu said such data would be only a “ small part ” of evidence that the regulator uses to evaluate vaccines .
“ It is also necessary to obtain the valid data of phase III clinical trials to fully assess the safety and effectiveness of the vaccines , ” she said .
Wu said @ @ @ @ @ @ @ small scale and has expanded gradually since July .
People who have been vaccinated are being carefully monitored for adverse reactions , and told to continue trying to avoid exposure to the virus , she said .
Publicly available information about the leading vaccine trials has been limited , says Stöhr , which has cast doubts on those efforts .
“ That is a pity , as I know many colleagues in China who have been working at the highest scientific and medical standards , ” he says .
This article is reproduced @ @ @ @ @ @ @ October 8 2020 .

In the race for a coronavirus vaccine, China is making bold promises. A Chinese health official has publicly pledged that an effective coronavirus vaccine will be available by the end of the year. The country has also committed to sharing its vaccines with more than a dozen nations, particularly low-income countries that it has close ties with. But even if a vaccine is ready soon, some scientists question whether the country will be able to produce enough doses to meet its international commitments, and if deals with individual countries are the best way to ensure equitable vaccine distribution.
Wu Guizhen, the chief biosafety expert at China’s Center for Disease Control and Prevention in Beijing, told Chinese state media last month that two vaccines developed by Shanghai pharmaceutical group Sinopharm will be available in November or December. The vaccines are being tested in countries including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Peru and Argentina.
On 9 October, China also announced that it had joined COVID-19 Vaccine Global Access (COVAX), the collaborative effort by Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance, together with the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations and the WHO, which is aiming to provide 2 billion doses of vaccine to the most vulnerable people and to health-care workers, especially in poor countries. Some 80 wealthy ‘self-funding’ countries have committed to support the initiative, with the notable exception of the United States. It is not clear yet whether China will commit money or vaccines, and how much.
Chinese vaccine makers have developed four of the roughly dozen leading candidate vaccines that are in the final stages of testing worldwide. No vaccine has yet completed the crucial phase III trials that are needed to firmly establish safety and efficacy. But that hasn’t stopped hundreds of thousands of people in China and abroad being injected with one of the four Chinese vaccine candidates under policies known as emergency-use authorization. The vaccines include those developed by Sinopharm, plus a jab developed by Beijing-based vaccine maker Sinovac and another by CanSino Biologics in Tianjin.
Scientists say the country’s drug regulator, which is part of the Ministry of Health, needs to wait for robust trial data that shows the vaccines are safe and effective before granting vaccines full approval.
In an e-mail to Nature, Wu said that the health ministry will await the results of large trials before approving them for sale. “Until then, there are still uncertainties,” she says.
Outside China, expectations are high that a successful Chinese vaccine will soon be available. Sinopharm’s large-scale trials in Argentina, which started last month, have received widespread media coverage, says Eduardo Spitzer, the scientific director of Laboratorio Elea Phoenix in Buenos Aires, which is organizing the trial. “We are working as fast as possible, but without losing quality in the data obtained from the trials.”
Demand and supplies
China’s leader Xi Jinping told the World Health Assembly in May that its vaccines would be a “global public good”, and the list of countries with which China has promised to share its vaccines continues to grow. But scientists question whether vaccine-makers will have enough doses to fulfil those commitments.
In the past few months, government leaders, including Xi and Premier Li Keqiang, have publicly pledged to make Chinese vaccine accessible to the Philippines, Cambodia, Burma, Thailand, Vietnam and Laos, as well as African and Latin American countries.
Chinese vaccine makers also have agreements with the countries where vaccines are being tested. Sinovac, which has a vaccine in phase III trial and says results should be out by the end of November, has a deal to deliver 60 million doses to hard-hit São Paolo, Brazil, and has committed 40 million doses to Indonesia by March. Spitzer says that details of the deal that Sinopharm made to provide vaccines to Argentina are confidential.
Zheng Zhongwei, the head of the Chinese government’s COVID-19 vaccine task force, said last month that China will have capacity to produce 600 million doses by the end of the year, and one billion next year. But given that the country has a population of 1.4 billion people, most of whom have not been vaccinated, that would not leave many doses available for export.
The numbers don’t add up, says Klaus Stöhr, who led the epidemic response unit at the World Health Organization (WHO) for 15 years and is now retired. “The number of doses available in China will by far be too little to permit export unless a political decision is taken to ship vaccines to overseas despite still-existing vaccine needs in China,” he says.
China might also use its deals with individual countries to gain future political or economic leverage, says Jerome Kim, director-general of the International Vaccine Institute in Seoul. “That would be regrettable,” he says.
But Kim commended China’s decision to join COVAX. “When Xi said he would make vaccines a ‘global public good,’ he said the right words. Joining COVAX turns those words into action,” he says.
If China commits doses of vaccines, they will need to be approved by the WHO and CEPI. Currently none of the four leading Chinese candidates are on the list of vaccines supported by CEPI. If China provides vaccines, it will also have to increase its capacity. “Lots of questions remain,” says Kim.
Safety first
Before Chinese vaccines are given to more people, their safety and effectiveness needs to be firmly established, say Kieny and other scientists.
They have also criticized Sinopharm for claiming its widespread vaccinations under emergency use provisions show that its two jabs are safe and effective. The company says there have been no infections among the tens of thousands of people that it vaccinated before they went abroad to countries affected by the coronavirus, even though no data supporting this claim has been made available.
“I would give personally no credit [to] the results,” says Marie-Paule Kieny, a vaccine researcher at INSERM, France’s national biomedical research agency in Paris.
Conclusions are hard to draw from such observations because there’s a strong risk of bias, says Paul Offit, a vaccine researcher at the Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia in Pennsylvania. Patients who were vaccinated might assume that any flu-like symptoms they have could not have arisen from a SARS-CoV-2 infection, and not report them. “They might just think, ‘I got vaccinated, so it’s probably nothing,’” says Offit.
Sinopharm did not respond to Nature’s requests for comment.
In response to Nature’s questions about whether vaccines might be approved on the basis of those preliminary data, Wu said such data would be only a “small part” of evidence that the regulator uses to evaluate vaccines. “It is also necessary to obtain the valid data of phase III clinical trials to fully assess the safety and effectiveness of the vaccines,” she said.
Wu said that the emergency-use programme started on a small scale and has expanded gradually since July. People who have been vaccinated are being carefully monitored for adverse reactions, and told to continue trying to avoid exposure to the virus, she said.
Publicly available information about the leading vaccine trials has been limited, says Stöhr, which has cast doubts on those efforts. “That is a pity, as I know many colleagues in China who have been working at the highest scientific and medical standards,” he says.
This article is reproduced with permission and was first published on October 8 2020.


scientificamerican--2020-10-09--Climate Change May Cause More Storms to Rapidly Intensify as Delta Did

An unusually busy Atlantic hurricane season is showing no signs of letting up .
Hurricane Delta is currently churning toward the Gulf Coast , expected to make landfall in Louisiana later today .
Delta is the 25th named storm this season and the ninth hurricane .
It ’ s the earliest in the year that any season has reached 25 storms .
Delta is also the third storm this year to achieve “ major hurricane ” status—that is , Category 3 or higher .
Delta reached Category 4 status Tuesday night before weakening as it moved over Mexico ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ season sees only 12 named storms , six of which typically become hurricanes and three of which grow into major hurricanes .
This year ’ s season already has exceeded two of those thresholds .
And hurricane season doesn ’ t end until Nov. 30 .
According to NOAA ’ s hurricane records , the 2020 season is inching closer to a record-breaking year .
The only year known to produce more Atlantic storms was 2005 , which saw 27 named tropical storms and hurricanes and one unnamed subtropical storm .
With nearly @ @ @ @ @ @ @ it ’ s possible 2020 could break the record for total number of storms .
The unusually busy season , and the possibility of a record-breaking year , raises the question of whether climate change is playing a role .
This year , a number of weather factors lined up to produce favorable conditions for hurricanes in the Atlantic ( Climatewire , Aug. 21 ) .
Ocean temperatures were unusually warm for much of the year .
Low sea-level pressure and favorable wind conditions also helped .
In general , though , climate @ @ @ @ @ @ @ much of an effect on the total number of hurricanes that form each year .
Instead , it ’ s likely to affect how strong those hurricanes get .
Numerous studies suggest that hurricanes will grow more intense as the climate warms .
That means the total number of storms might not change all that much in the future—but a greater proportion of those storms will turn into major hurricanes .
It ’ s an important distinction .
The vice presidential debate on Wednesday demonstrated that politicians may distort the science of hurricanes @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , moderator Susan Page asked Vice President Mike Pence whether he believes the science that suggests hurricanes are becoming wetter , slower and more damaging .
( Multiple studies have concluded that climate change affects all of these characteristics in hurricanes . )
Pence responded that “ there are no more hurricanes today than there were 100 years ago.
” He then suggested that climate alarmists use hurricanes as means of advancing their own interests in a Green New Deal .
But Pence ’ s answer sidesteps the actual science about climate change @ @ @ @ @ @ @ change isn ’ t having a big impact on the frequency of hurricanes .
Rather , the storms themselves are changing .
And research including a study appearing in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences in May shows that hurricanes are already growing stronger , as well as moving more slowly and dumping more rain .
And , as the Earth continues to warm , hurricanes are expected to intensify even more .
That ’ s not all .
Climate change not only affects how strong a storm becomes .
It also @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Hurricane Delta may be a record-breaker on that front .
The Weather Channel reported that Delta is believed to be the fastest storm to spin up from a tropical depression into a Category 4 hurricane .
It made the transition in just 36 hours .
That makes it one of the fastest-intensifying storms on record .
Studies suggest that climate change will increase the speed at which hurricanes intensify over the ocean .
Some research indicates that rapid intensification events are already happening more frequently in some parts of the Atlantic ( Climatewire @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is needed to determine whether climate change played a role in Delta ’ s intensification .
But in general , it is the kind of event that scientists expect to happen more frequently as the planet continues to warm .
So the 2020 hurricane season is unusual in several regards—a record-breaker on some fronts , and nearing a record on others .
While the number of storms is remarkable , it ’ s important to keep that figure in perspective—especially as hurricanes and climate change shift into the election spotlight .
From a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the storm is what counts .
Reprinted from Climatewire with permission from E & E News .
E & E provides daily coverage of essential energy and environmental news at www.eenews.net .

An unusually busy Atlantic hurricane season is showing no signs of letting up.
Hurricane Delta is currently churning toward the Gulf Coast, expected to make landfall in Louisiana later today. Delta is the 25th named storm this season and the ninth hurricane.
It’s the earliest in the year that any season has reached 25 storms.
Delta is also the third storm this year to achieve “major hurricane” status—that is, Category 3 or higher. Delta reached Category 4 status Tuesday night before weakening as it moved over Mexico’s Yucatán Peninsula.
An average Atlantic hurricane season sees only 12 named storms, six of which typically become hurricanes and three of which grow into major hurricanes.
This year’s season already has exceeded two of those thresholds. And hurricane season doesn’t end until Nov. 30.
According to NOAA’s hurricane records, the 2020 season is inching closer to a record-breaking year.
The only year known to produce more Atlantic storms was 2005, which saw 27 named tropical storms and hurricanes and one unnamed subtropical storm. With nearly two months left in the season, it’s possible 2020 could break the record for total number of storms.
The unusually busy season, and the possibility of a record-breaking year, raises the question of whether climate change is playing a role.
This year, a number of weather factors lined up to produce favorable conditions for hurricanes in the Atlantic (Climatewire, Aug. 21). Ocean temperatures were unusually warm for much of the year. Low sea-level pressure and favorable wind conditions also helped.
In general, though, climate change isn’t expected to have much of an effect on the total number of hurricanes that form each year. Instead, it’s likely to affect how strong those hurricanes get.
Numerous studies suggest that hurricanes will grow more intense as the climate warms. That means the total number of storms might not change all that much in the future—but a greater proportion of those storms will turn into major hurricanes.
It’s an important distinction. The vice presidential debate on Wednesday demonstrated that politicians may distort the science of hurricanes for political purposes.
During the debate, moderator Susan Page asked Vice President Mike Pence whether he believes the science that suggests hurricanes are becoming wetter, slower and more damaging. (Multiple studies have concluded that climate change affects all of these characteristics in hurricanes.)
Pence responded that “there are no more hurricanes today than there were 100 years ago.”
He then suggested that climate alarmists use hurricanes as means of advancing their own interests in a Green New Deal.
But Pence’s answer sidesteps the actual science about climate change.
The latest research suggests that climate change isn’t having a big impact on the frequency of hurricanes.
Rather, the storms themselves are changing. And research including a study appearing in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences in May shows that hurricanes are already growing stronger, as well as moving more slowly and dumping more rain.
And, as the Earth continues to warm, hurricanes are expected to intensify even more.
That’s not all. Climate change not only affects how strong a storm becomes. It also affects how quickly a storm intensifies.
Hurricane Delta may be a record-breaker on that front. The Weather Channel reported that Delta is believed to be the fastest storm to spin up from a tropical depression into a Category 4 hurricane. It made the transition in just 36 hours.
That makes it one of the fastest-intensifying storms on record.
Studies suggest that climate change will increase the speed at which hurricanes intensify over the ocean. Some research indicates that rapid intensification events are already happening more frequently in some parts of the Atlantic (Climatewire, Aug. 26).
More research is needed to determine whether climate change played a role in Delta’s intensification. But in general, it is the kind of event that scientists expect to happen more frequently as the planet continues to warm.
So the 2020 hurricane season is unusual in several regards—a record-breaker on some fronts, and nearing a record on others.
While the number of storms is remarkable, it’s important to keep that figure in perspective—especially as hurricanes and climate change shift into the election spotlight. From a climate change angle, the strength of the storm is what counts.
Reprinted from Climatewire with permission from E&E News. E&E provides daily coverage of essential energy and environmental news at www.eenews.net.


scientificamerican--2020-10-09--Bundles of Plant-Water-Transportation Cells Resemble Snake Eyes

Like all living creatures , plants rely on the transportation of water and minerals throughout their body .
Xylem is @ @ @ @ @ substances from plants ’ roots to their leaves .
Tracheid cells exclusively transport water and @ @ @ @ @ one of several types that make up the xylem in plants cells .
This colored @ @ @ @ @ bundle of tracheids in a softwood toothpick .
Each has a thick lignified , or @ @ @ @ @ green ) , which provides structural support to the stem or plant body .
Pits @ @ @ @ @ ) allow water to pass in and out of the cells and into the vascular @ @ @ @ @ water and mineral nutrients from the roots throughout the plant .
The image is magnified @ @ @ @ @ printed at 10 centimeters wide .
Science in Images is a new category of articles @ @ @ @ @ all the disciplines of science .
Click on the button below to see the full @ @

Like all living creatures, plants rely on the transportation of water and minerals throughout their body. Xylem is a vascular tissue that moves substances from plants’ roots to their leaves. Tracheid cells exclusively transport water and minerals, and they are one of several types that make up the xylem in plants cells. This colored scanning electron micrograph shows a bundle of tracheids in a softwood toothpick. Each has a thick lignified, or rigid, cell wall (green), which provides structural support to the stem or plant body. Pits on these tracheids (black) allow water to pass in and out of the cells and into the vascular system. Tracheid cells move water and mineral nutrients from the roots throughout the plant. The image is magnified 1,500 times when it is printed at 10 centimeters wide.
Science in Images is a new category of articles featuring photographs and videos from all the disciplines of science. Click on the button below to see the full collection.
Science in Images


scientificamerican--2020-10-08--U.S. Wind and Solar Installations Are Smashing Records, but the Trend May Not Last

The United States is on pace to install record amounts of wind and solar this year , underscoring America 's capacity to build renewables at a level once considered impossible .
The U.S. Energy Information Administration expects the U.S. will install 37 gigawatts of new wind and solar capacity this year , obliterating the previous record of almost 17 GW in 2016 .
The renewable boom boosts U.S. climate efforts .
Energy modelers think the nation will need to deploy about 40 GW of wind and solar every year over the next decade to achieve deep decarbonization of its electric @ @ @ @ @ @ @ aberration or the beginning of a mass greening of the U.S. power sector depends in large part on what policymakers do next .
This year 's renewable energy expansion is driven in part by the expiration of the wind production tax credit and a decrease in the investment tax credit available to solar projects .
The last time the PTC expired , in 2012 , the U.S. installed a then record 13 GW of wind .
The next year , it failed to build a single gigawatt .
`` It is still worth @ @ @ @ @ @ @ who leads electricity research at Energy Innovation , a think tank that favors a transition to clean energy .
`` What I am worried about is can we replicate that success consistently , not to hit the record one time , but do it over and over again ? ''
The potential for a renewable energy drop-off points to the need for a national clean electricity standard or some other policy to drive green investments , he said .
`` We need a clear signal , '' O'Boyle added .
`` We ca @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of decimates the industry . ''
There are significant differences between now and a decade ago .
Most importantly , wind and solar are considerably cheaper .
The outlook for solar remains strong , with prices in the sector continuing to decline .
And in the case of wind , the industry has room to grow in large parts of the West .
But industry observers said the wind projects coming online this year will weigh on wholesale power prices in the markets where they are built , dragging down the incentive to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Anthony Logan , an analyst who tracks power markets at Wood Mackenzie , said some of the wind projects anticipated to come online this year could be pushed off to 2021 .
EIA expects an additional 7.3 GW of new wind next year .
But the outlook for wind is significantly more challenged in the middle part of the decade , Logan said .
`` The depressed prices in high wind areas combined with the PTC rolling off create a dynamic where wind build is sharply curtailed , '' he said .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ Much of the wind and solar development occurring this year is taking place in regions with large amounts of renewables already .
Texas , Iowa and Oklahoma ranked first , second and third , respectively , in total installed wind capacity in 2019 .
Those three states are expected to lead new wind installations again this year , accounting for 9.4 GW of the 23 GW expected to be installed .
California , meanwhile , continues to outpace most of the country in terms of new solar installations .
The Golden State is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ this year on top of the nation-leading 11 GW that 's already installed .
A total of 13.7 GW of solar is expected to come online nationally in 2020 .
Greening America 's collection of regional electric grids will not only require an expansion of renewables into new regions , but more transmission to carry it to the areas where power is consumed , analysts said .
`` We 're going to need more extension cords , '' said Steve Cicala , a professor who studies power markets at Tufts University .
Power @ @ @ @ @ @ @ generation are often low and can frequently turn negative because there is not enough transmission to export power to cities and other demand centers .
By contrast , power prices around cities are often higher due to transmission congestion , helping support fossil fuel plants that degrade air quality in urban areas .
`` If you can get the power from where it is being produced to where it is consumed , you can turn off those polluting power plants , '' Cicala said .
There are some notable exceptions to the regional @ @ @ @ @ @ @ install 3.3 GW of solar this year , a 36 % expansion , and add 5.9 GW more in the next two years .
The Lone Star State 's solar boom will help address concerns over inadequate electricity supplies to meet Texas ' summer demand peaks .
Those are now met in large part by fossil fuel plants , which ramp up as temperatures rise and air conditioners flick on .
Meeting large parts of that demand with solar will significantly green the Texas grid .
In the big picture , the amount @ @ @ @ @ @ @ will need to be replicated in coming years .
When Energy Innovation mapped out a pathway earlier this year for reducing power sector emissions 90 % by 2035 , it estimated the U.S. would need to add about 40 GW of renewables every year over the next decade .
A 2016 report by the Obama White House estimated renewable deployments of roughly 30 GW through 2035 were needed to achieve an 80 % reduction in emissions by 2050 .
`` One thing to think about with this surge is , yes , it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ quickly , '' said John Larsen , an analyst who tracks the power sector at the Rhodium Group , an economic research firm .
`` But we need to be able to continue to ramp . ''
Reprinted from Climatewire with permission from E & E News .
E & E provides daily coverage of essential energy and environmental news at www.eenews.net .

The United States is on pace to install record amounts of wind and solar this year, underscoring America's capacity to build renewables at a level once considered impossible.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration expects the U.S. will install 37 gigawatts of new wind and solar capacity this year, obliterating the previous record of almost 17 GW in 2016.
The renewable boom boosts U.S. climate efforts. Energy modelers think the nation will need to deploy about 40 GW of wind and solar every year over the next decade to achieve deep decarbonization of its electric grids.
But whether 2020 is an aberration or the beginning of a mass greening of the U.S. power sector depends in large part on what policymakers do next.
This year's renewable energy expansion is driven in part by the expiration of the wind production tax credit and a decrease in the investment tax credit available to solar projects. The last time the PTC expired, in 2012, the U.S. installed a then record 13 GW of wind. The next year, it failed to build a single gigawatt.
"It is still worth celebrating," said Mike O'Boyle, who leads electricity research at Energy Innovation, a think tank that favors a transition to clean energy. "What I am worried about is can we replicate that success consistently, not to hit the record one time, but do it over and over again?"
The potential for a renewable energy drop-off points to the need for a national clean electricity standard or some other policy to drive green investments, he said.
"We need a clear signal," O'Boyle added. "We can't afford another bust cycle that sort of decimates the industry."
There are significant differences between now and a decade ago. Most importantly, wind and solar are considerably cheaper.
The outlook for solar remains strong, with prices in the sector continuing to decline. And in the case of wind, the industry has room to grow in large parts of the West.
But industry observers said the wind projects coming online this year will weigh on wholesale power prices in the markets where they are built, dragging down the incentive to build new wind projects in future years.
Anthony Logan, an analyst who tracks power markets at Wood Mackenzie, said some of the wind projects anticipated to come online this year could be pushed off to 2021. EIA expects an additional 7.3 GW of new wind next year. But the outlook for wind is significantly more challenged in the middle part of the decade, Logan said.
"The depressed prices in high wind areas combined with the PTC rolling off create a dynamic where wind build is sharply curtailed," he said.
The challenges do not end there. Much of the wind and solar development occurring this year is taking place in regions with large amounts of renewables already.
Texas, Iowa and Oklahoma ranked first, second and third, respectively, in total installed wind capacity in 2019. Those three states are expected to lead new wind installations again this year, accounting for 9.4 GW of the 23 GW expected to be installed.
California, meanwhile, continues to outpace most of the country in terms of new solar installations. The Golden State is expected to add 2.3 GW of solar this year on top of the nation-leading 11 GW that's already installed. A total of 13.7 GW of solar is expected to come online nationally in 2020.
Greening America's collection of regional electric grids will not only require an expansion of renewables into new regions, but more transmission to carry it to the areas where power is consumed, analysts said.
"We're going to need more extension cords," said Steve Cicala, a professor who studies power markets at Tufts University.
Power prices in areas with lots of renewable generation are often low and can frequently turn negative because there is not enough transmission to export power to cities and other demand centers. By contrast, power prices around cities are often higher due to transmission congestion, helping support fossil fuel plants that degrade air quality in urban areas.
"If you can get the power from where it is being produced to where it is consumed, you can turn off those polluting power plants," Cicala said.
There are some notable exceptions to the regional trend. Texas is on pace to install 3.3 GW of solar this year, a 36% expansion, and add 5.9 GW more in the next two years.
The Lone Star State's solar boom will help address concerns over inadequate electricity supplies to meet Texas' summer demand peaks. Those are now met in large part by fossil fuel plants, which ramp up as temperatures rise and air conditioners flick on. Meeting large parts of that demand with solar will significantly green the Texas grid.
In the big picture, the amount of wind and solar deployed this year will need to be replicated in coming years.
When Energy Innovation mapped out a pathway earlier this year for reducing power sector emissions 90% by 2035, it estimated the U.S. would need to add about 40 GW of renewables every year over the next decade. A 2016 report by the Obama White House estimated renewable deployments of roughly 30 GW through 2035 were needed to achieve an 80% reduction in emissions by 2050.
"One thing to think about with this surge is, yes, it's doable. We can ramp up quickly," said John Larsen, an analyst who tracks the power sector at the Rhodium Group, an economic research firm. "But we need to be able to continue to ramp."
Reprinted from Climatewire with permission from E&E News. E&E provides daily coverage of essential energy and environmental news at www.eenews.net.


scientificamerican--2020-10-08--Last Chance for WIMPs: Physicists Launch All-Out Hunt for Dark Matter Candidate

Physicists are hatching a plan to give a popular but elusive dark-matter candidate a last chance to reveal itself .
For decades , physicists have hypothesized that weakly interacting massive particles ( WIMPs ) are the strongest candidate for dark matter — the mysterious substance that makes up 85 % of the Universe ’ s mass .
But several experiments have failed to find evidence for WIMPs , meaning that , if they exist , their properties are unlike those originally predicted .
Now , researchers are pushing to build a final generation of supersensitive detectors — or one ‘ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the particles no place to hide .
“ The WIMP hypothesis will face its real reckoning after these next-generation detectors run , ” says Mariangela Lisanti , a physicist at Princeton University in New Jersey .
Physicists have long predicted that an invisible substance , which has mass but doesn ’ t interact with light , permeates the Universe .
The gravitational effects of dark matter would explain why rotating galaxies don ’ t tear themselves apart , and the uneven pattern seen in the microwave ‘ afterglow ’ of the early Universe @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the dark matter in the 1980s .
They are typically predicted to be 1–1,000 times heavier than protons and to interact with matter only feebly — through the weak nuclear force , which is responsible for radioactive decay , or something even weaker .
Over the coming months , operations will begin at three existing underground detectors — in the United States , Italy and China — that search for dark-matter particles by looking for interactions in supercooled vats of xenon .
Using a method honed over more than a decade , these @ @ @ @ @ @ @ light when the nuclei recoil from their interaction with dark-matter particles .
Physicists hope that these experiments — or rival WIMP detectors that use materials such as germanium and argon — will make the first direct detection of dark matter .
But if this doesn ’ t happen , xenon researchers are already designing their ultimate WIMP detectors .
These experiments would probably be the last generation of their kind because they would be so sensitive that they would reach the ‘ neutrino floor ’ — a natural limit beyond which dark matter @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that its detection would be clouded by neutrinos , which barely interact with matter but rain down on Earth in their trillions every second .
“ It would be sort of crazy not to cover this gap , ” says Laura Baudis , a physicist at the University of Zurich in Switzerland .
“ Future generations may ask us , why didn ’ t you do this ?
” The most advanced of these efforts is a planned experiment called DARWIN .
The detector , estimated to cost between €100-million ( US $ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ being developed by the international XENON collaboration , which runs one of the 3 experiments starting up this year — a 6-tonne detector called XENONnT at the Gran Sasso National Laboratory near Rome .
DARWIN would contain almost ten times this volume of xenon .
Members of the collaboration have grants from several funding agencies to develop detector technology , including precise detection techniques that will work over DARWIN ’ s much larger scales , says Baudis , a leading member of XENON and co-spokesperson for DARWIN .
The project is also on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ future scientific infrastructure , and Germany ’ s research ministry has issued funding calls specifically for DARWIN-related research ; these steps suggest that the nations are likely to contribute further cash in the future .
And although DARWIN does not yet formally have a home , it could end up at Gran Sasso .
In April , the laboratory formally invited the collaboration to submit a conceptual design report by the end of 2021 .
“ It tells us very clearly that the lab is very interested in hosting such an experiment , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ physicist at the University of Freiburg in Germany .
The team hopes to be taking data by 2026 .
Although DARWIN is currently led by the XENON collaboration , Baudis is hopeful that Chinese colleagues , who this year are starting up an experiment called PandaX-4t , or the team involved in the US-based xenon experiment called Lux-Zeppelin , might join them in building a single ‘ ultimate ’ detector .
These teams have also considered building experiments that would take them to the neutrino floor , but “ the goal is , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ global xenon-based dark-matter experiment ” , says Baudis .
Physicists might have no choice but to club together because of the sheer quantity of xenon needed .
The noble gas is difficult to obtain in large quantities owing to the energy-intensive process needed to extract it from the air and because of competing demand from electronics , lighting and space industries .
One kilogram can cost more than US $ 2,500 .
Darwin ’ s 50 tonnes would be close to the world ’ s annual production of around 70 tonnes , meaning @ @ @ @ @ @ @ detectors combine their 25 tonnes — a future experiment would need to buy the rest in batches over several years .
“ We have to plan very carefully for it already now , ” says Baudis .
Researchers behind similar experiments that use argon to look for dark matter also hope to build a detector to reach the neutrino floor .
A 300-tonne experiment known as ARGO would likely begin operations around 2029 and could confirm any signal seen by DARWIN .
WIMPS have been the focus of dozens of experiments because there @ @ @ @ @ @ @ existence .
They not only explain why galaxies seem to move as they do , but their existence also fits with theories in particle physics .
A group of theories known as supersymmetry , devised in the 1970s to fill holes in physicists ’ standard model of fundamental particles and their interactions , predict a WIMP-like particle .
And when particle physicists model the early Universe , they find that particles with WIMP-like properties would survive the hot soup of interactions in just enough numbers to match the dark-matter abundance observed today .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ detectors and from particle accelerators such as the Large Hadron Collider — mean that , if WIMPs exist , either the likelihood that they interact with matter or their mass must be at the lowest end of initial predictions .
The failure to detect WIMPs has caused the physics community to “ pause and reflect ” on their status , says Tien-Tien Yu , a physicist at the University of Oregon in Eugene .
Many in the physics community , including Yu , are now searching for other dark-matter candidates , including through @ @ @ @ @ @ @ WIMPs remain theoretically attractive enough to continue the decades-long hunt , says Yu .
And the DARWIN team emphasizes that its supersensitive detector would have myriad uses — including addressing the pressing questions in neutrino physics , says Baudis .
One mystery that DARWIN could help to solve is whether neutrinos are also their own antiparticle .
Whether a single experiment or many , “ I would bet quite some money that a DARWIN-like detector gets built , ” says Schumann .
This article is reproduced with permission and was first published on @ @ @ @

Physicists are hatching a plan to give a popular but elusive dark-matter candidate a last chance to reveal itself. For decades, physicists have hypothesized that weakly interacting massive particles (WIMPs) are the strongest candidate for dark matter — the mysterious substance that makes up 85% of the Universe’s mass. But several experiments have failed to find evidence for WIMPs, meaning that, if they exist, their properties are unlike those originally predicted. Now, researchers are pushing to build a final generation of supersensitive detectors — or one ‘ultimate’ detector — that will leave the particles no place to hide.
“The WIMP hypothesis will face its real reckoning after these next-generation detectors run,” says Mariangela Lisanti, a physicist at Princeton University in New Jersey.
Physicists have long predicted that an invisible substance, which has mass but doesn’t interact with light, permeates the Universe. The gravitational effects of dark matter would explain why rotating galaxies don’t tear themselves apart, and the uneven pattern seen in the microwave ‘afterglow’ of the early Universe. WIMPs became a favourite candidate for the dark matter in the 1980s. They are typically predicted to be 1–1,000 times heavier than protons and to interact with matter only feebly — through the weak nuclear force, which is responsible for radioactive decay, or something even weaker.
Supercooled xenon
Over the coming months, operations will begin at three existing underground detectors — in the United States, Italy and China — that search for dark-matter particles by looking for interactions in supercooled vats of xenon. Using a method honed over more than a decade, these detectors will watch for telltale flashes of light when the nuclei recoil from their interaction with dark-matter particles.
Physicists hope that these experiments — or rival WIMP detectors that use materials such as germanium and argon — will make the first direct detection of dark matter. But if this doesn’t happen, xenon researchers are already designing their ultimate WIMP detectors. These experiments would probably be the last generation of their kind because they would be so sensitive that they would reach the ‘neutrino floor’ — a natural limit beyond which dark matter would interact so little with xenon nuclei that its detection would be clouded by neutrinos, which barely interact with matter but rain down on Earth in their trillions every second. “It would be sort of crazy not to cover this gap,” says Laura Baudis, a physicist at the University of Zurich in Switzerland. “Future generations may ask us, why didn’t you do this?”
The most advanced of these efforts is a planned experiment called DARWIN. The detector, estimated to cost between €100-million (US$116-million) and €150 million, is being developed by the international XENON collaboration, which runs one of the 3 experiments starting up this year — a 6-tonne detector called XENONnT at the Gran Sasso National Laboratory near Rome. DARWIN would contain almost ten times this volume of xenon. Members of the collaboration have grants from several funding agencies to develop detector technology, including precise detection techniques that will work over DARWIN’s much larger scales, says Baudis, a leading member of XENON and co-spokesperson for DARWIN.
Global experiment
The project is also on Switzerland’s national road map for future scientific infrastructure, and Germany’s research ministry has issued funding calls specifically for DARWIN-related research; these steps suggest that the nations are likely to contribute further cash in the future. And although DARWIN does not yet formally have a home, it could end up at Gran Sasso. In April, the laboratory formally invited the collaboration to submit a conceptual design report by the end of 2021. “It tells us very clearly that the lab is very interested in hosting such an experiment,” says co-spokesperson Marc Schumann, a physicist at the University of Freiburg in Germany. The team hopes to be taking data by 2026.
Although DARWIN is currently led by the XENON collaboration, Baudis is hopeful that Chinese colleagues, who this year are starting up an experiment called PandaX-4t, or the team involved in the US-based xenon experiment called Lux-Zeppelin, might join them in building a single ‘ultimate’ detector. These teams have also considered building experiments that would take them to the neutrino floor, but “the goal is, of course, to have one large global xenon-based dark-matter experiment”, says Baudis.
Physicists might have no choice but to club together because of the sheer quantity of xenon needed. The noble gas is difficult to obtain in large quantities owing to the energy-intensive process needed to extract it from the air and because of competing demand from electronics, lighting and space industries. One kilogram can cost more than US$2,500. Darwin’s 50 tonnes would be close to the world’s annual production of around 70 tonnes, meaning that — even if all 3 existing detectors combine their 25 tonnes — a future experiment would need to buy the rest in batches over several years. “We have to plan very carefully for it already now,” says Baudis.
Researchers behind similar experiments that use argon to look for dark matter also hope to build a detector to reach the neutrino floor. A 300-tonne experiment known as ARGO would likely begin operations around 2029 and could confirm any signal seen by DARWIN.
Why WIMPs?
WIMPS have been the focus of dozens of experiments because there is a strong theoretical case for their existence. They not only explain why galaxies seem to move as they do, but their existence also fits with theories in particle physics. A group of theories known as supersymmetry, devised in the 1970s to fill holes in physicists’ standard model of fundamental particles and their interactions, predict a WIMP-like particle. And when particle physicists model the early Universe, they find that particles with WIMP-like properties would survive the hot soup of interactions in just enough numbers to match the dark-matter abundance observed today.
But null results — from direct dark-matter detectors and from particle accelerators such as the Large Hadron Collider — mean that, if WIMPs exist, either the likelihood that they interact with matter or their mass must be at the lowest end of initial predictions. The failure to detect WIMPs has caused the physics community to “pause and reflect” on their status, says Tien-Tien Yu, a physicist at the University of Oregon in Eugene. Many in the physics community, including Yu, are now searching for other dark-matter candidates, including through smaller, cheaper experiments.
Still, WIMPs remain theoretically attractive enough to continue the decades-long hunt, says Yu. And the DARWIN team emphasizes that its supersensitive detector would have myriad uses — including addressing the pressing questions in neutrino physics, says Baudis. One mystery that DARWIN could help to solve is whether neutrinos are also their own antiparticle.
Whether a single experiment or many, “I would bet quite some money that a DARWIN-like detector gets built,” says Schumann.
This article is reproduced with permission and was first published on October 2 2020.


scientificamerican--2020-10-10--In Case You Missed It

In Case You Missed It

In now flooded caves , researchers discovered the oldest known ochre mines in the Americas .
Around 12,000 years ago inhabitants of the Yucatán Peninsula extracted the red pigment , possibly for use as an antiseptic and sunscreen or for symbolic purposes such as body painting .
A massive bloom of pink algae , triggered by low snowfall and high spring and summer temperatures , could accelerate the melting of the Presena glacier by causing the ice to absorb more sunlight .
At least 350 elephants have dropped dead in the Okavango Panhandle since March , and live elephants have @ @ @ @ @ @ @ With poaching and anthrax ruled out as potential causes , investigators suspect an unknown disease .
A seven-million-year-old crocodile skull suggests the prehistoric animals may have traveled from Africa to the Americas .
Computerized tomography of the fossil , found in Libya , revealed a slight bump in the middle of the snout—a feature of modern American crocodiles but not their African counterparts .
Through a genetic analysis of modern-day Polynesians and Indigenous people from South America 's Pacific coast , scientists concluded the two groups came into contact between A.D. 1150 and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ remains unknown , but the team suspects eastern Polynesia .
The successful launch of a Mars orbiter called Hope marked the first interplanetary mission conducted by an Arab nation .
Carrying instruments to study the Red Planet 's daily and seasonal weather , the spacecraft is set to enter Martian orbit in February 2021 .

MEXICO
In now flooded caves, researchers discovered the oldest known ochre mines in the Americas. Around 12,000 years ago inhabitants of the Yucatán Peninsula extracted the red pigment, possibly for use as an antiseptic and sunscreen or for symbolic purposes such as body painting.
ITALY
A massive bloom of pink algae, triggered by low snowfall and high spring and summer temperatures, could accelerate the melting of the Presena glacier by causing the ice to absorb more sunlight.
BOTSWANA
At least 350 elephants have dropped dead in the Okavango Panhandle since March, and live elephants have acted disoriented or seemed partially paralyzed. With poaching and anthrax ruled out as potential causes, investigators suspect an unknown disease.
LIBYA
A seven-million-year-old crocodile skull suggests the prehistoric animals may have traveled from Africa to the Americas. Computerized tomography of the fossil, found in Libya, revealed a slight bump in the middle of the snout—a feature of modern American crocodiles but not their African counterparts.
POLYNESIA
Through a genetic analysis of modern-day Polynesians and Indigenous people from South America's Pacific coast, scientists concluded the two groups came into contact between A.D. 1150 and 1230. Where the transoceanic encounter occurred remains unknown, but the team suspects eastern Polynesia.
UNITED ARAB EMIRATES
The successful launch of a Mars orbiter called Hope marked the first interplanetary mission conducted by an Arab nation. Carrying instruments to study the Red Planet's daily and seasonal weather, the spacecraft is set to enter Martian orbit in February 2021.


Academia after COVID

“ By now , I ’ ve lost any hope of educating my senior colleagues , ” I joked after a lengthy debate about the educational implications of COVID-19 at a recent online faculty meeting .
“ Oh , stop it , ” others protested .
And in fact , the truth is that I do have hope .
It rests squarely on the shoulders of the younger generation , which lacks a baggage of prejudice , scars from past battles or an entrenched agenda .
Our junior colleagues are unbiased enough to carry the torch of innovation , they @ @ @ @ @ @ @ reality as if it was clay , and they are innocent enough to believe that the future can be better than the past .
Hiring freezes in universities , triggered by COVID-19 budget squeezes , endanger this future .
The reduction in job opportunities threatens the careers of postdoctoral fellows and junior faculty .
Some faculty searches that were supposed to conclude in March 2020 were cancelled without offers , and new searches have not been scheduled as of yet .
If the current financial austerity persists for a few more years , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ scientists to leave academia .
This would inflict an irreversible blow to science .
The lesson learned after many scientists left the Soviet Union during glasnost was that it is difficult to resurrect an academic system following an abrupt dilution of its talent pool .
In the coming year , funding agencies like NSF , NASA , DOE or private foundations must extend emergency support to junior researchers who are in need of another year or two of bridge funding .
This will constitute a “ bridge over troubled water ” to our @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the challenge to academia extends beyond postgraduate jobs to pregraduate education .
Will the education system bounce back to in-person classes after a hoped-for vaccine suppresses the pandemic , or will students prefer to attend online classes from a location of their choice at a lower cost ?
The answer will depend on the supply-and-demand economics of online education in the coming years .
Fundamentally , the underlying question is whether learning is mostly about a transfer of information or about personal and social interactions as well .
One could argue both ways @ @ @ @ @ @ @ which the social interactions take place at a different location than the source of the online classes .
Already now , many students have rented shared apartments in their favorite location , be it on the beaches of Hawaii or the suburbs of their favorite city , while attending college online .
Beyond this academic year , online teaching will advance partnerships between universities and internet companies to expand enrollment dramatically by offering a more affordable hybrid of online and offline degrees .
COVID-19 forced a transition to enhanced household duties , including @ @ @ @ @ @ @ inescapable toll on the research productivity of many scientists .
The impact was particularly acute for laboratory research in which physical presence is essential .
To some , the confinement at home increased mental health needs .
To many others , the pandemic enhanced financial inequalities and threatened gender equity with women bearing a greater burden of the extra workload in many homes .
All of these factors must be addressed by academic planning committees that will adjust the promotion and tenure policies of colleges in order to ensure that diversity and equity @ @ @ @ @ @ @ have also offered a menu of minor benefits from online communications .
For example , online conferences save on travel time and expenses .
To engage the audience , the format of online conferences is shifting to debates and dialogues , with recorded lecture videos serving the supporting role of background materials .
Long before Zoom , question and answer sessions were advocated by the wise philosopher Socrates as the best method for learning and for stimulating critical thinking .
In addition to the benefits for conferences , boring administrative meetings are no @ @ @ @ @ @ @ passive participants can quietly pursue other activities on their computers while staying in listening mode .
More generally , the lack of interruptions by unanticipated visitors to my work space has allowed me , for the first time , to reach a state of internal tranquility , ataraxia , recommended more than two millennia ago by the ancient Greek philosophers Pyrrho and Epicurus .
With this aim in mind , I advocated social distancing long before it became trendy .
One way or another , academic life is likely to be forever changed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ be viewed optimistically as a fertile ground for establishing a better reality .
A seismic change of this magnitude offers an opportunity to reboot the education system , aligning it better with our guiding principles and discarding its administrative inefficiencies .
Doing so will require the drive and ideas of our younger colleagues , who will also be the primary bearers of the implications .
Let ’ s make sure that they survive the current financial storm and construct a better version of academia , following the fine tradition of improvements since the @ @ @ @ @ @ @

“By now, I’ve lost any hope of educating my senior colleagues,” I joked after a lengthy debate about the educational implications of COVID-19 at a recent online faculty meeting. “Oh, stop it,” others protested. And in fact, the truth is that I do have hope. It rests squarely on the shoulders of the younger generation, which lacks a baggage of prejudice, scars from past battles or an entrenched agenda. Our junior colleagues are unbiased enough to carry the torch of innovation, they are energetic and fearless enough to shape reality as if it was clay, and they are innocent enough to believe that the future can be better than the past.
Hiring freezes in universities, triggered by COVID-19 budget squeezes, endanger this future. The reduction in job opportunities threatens the careers of postdoctoral fellows and junior faculty. Some faculty searches that were supposed to conclude in March 2020 were cancelled without offers, and new searches have not been scheduled as of yet.
If the current financial austerity persists for a few more years, it may force a cohort of early-career scientists to leave academia. This would inflict an irreversible blow to science. The lesson learned after many scientists left the Soviet Union during glasnost was that it is difficult to resurrect an academic system following an abrupt dilution of its talent pool.
In the coming year, funding agencies like NSF, NASA, DOE or private foundations must extend emergency support to junior researchers who are in need of another year or two of bridge funding. This will constitute a “bridge over troubled water” to our future in science and technology.
But the challenge to academia extends beyond postgraduate jobs to pregraduate education. Will the education system bounce back to in-person classes after a hoped-for vaccine suppresses the pandemic, or will students prefer to attend online classes from a location of their choice at a lower cost? The answer will depend on the supply-and-demand economics of online education in the coming years.
Fundamentally, the underlying question is whether learning is mostly about a transfer of information or about personal and social interactions as well. One could argue both ways, and a compromise might emerge in which the social interactions take place at a different location than the source of the online classes. Already now, many students have rented shared apartments in their favorite location, be it on the beaches of Hawaii or the suburbs of their favorite city, while attending college online. Beyond this academic year, online teaching will advance partnerships between universities and internet companies to expand enrollment dramatically by offering a more affordable hybrid of online and offline degrees.
COVID-19 forced a transition to enhanced household duties, including childcare and eldercare, which took an inescapable toll on the research productivity of many scientists. The impact was particularly acute for laboratory research in which physical presence is essential. To some, the confinement at home increased mental health needs. To many others, the pandemic enhanced financial inequalities and threatened gender equity with women bearing a greater burden of the extra workload in many homes. All of these factors must be addressed by academic planning committees that will adjust the promotion and tenure policies of colleges in order to ensure that diversity and equity will endure.
But the past months have also offered a menu of minor benefits from online communications. For example, online conferences save on travel time and expenses. To engage the audience, the format of online conferences is shifting to debates and dialogues, with recorded lecture videos serving the supporting role of background materials. Long before Zoom, question and answer sessions were advocated by the wise philosopher Socrates as the best method for learning and for stimulating critical thinking.
In addition to the benefits for conferences, boring administrative meetings are no longer a waste of time, since passive participants can quietly pursue other activities on their computers while staying in listening mode. More generally, the lack of interruptions by unanticipated visitors to my work space has allowed me, for the first time, to reach a state of internal tranquility, ataraxia, recommended more than two millennia ago by the ancient Greek philosophers Pyrrho and Epicurus. With this aim in mind, I advocated social distancing long before it became trendy.
One way or another, academic life is likely to be forever changed. The damage caused by COVID-19 can be viewed optimistically as a fertile ground for establishing a better reality. A seismic change of this magnitude offers an opportunity to reboot the education system, aligning it better with our guiding principles and discarding its administrative inefficiencies. Doing so will require the drive and ideas of our younger colleagues, who will also be the primary bearers of the implications. Let’s make sure that they survive the current financial storm and construct a better version of academia, following the fine tradition of improvements since the initial version of the Platonic Academy.


scientificamerican--2020-10-10--In Memoriam: John D. Barrow

In Memoriam: John D. Barrow

A truly great scientist not only makes significant technical contributions but also reshapes a discipline ’ s conceptual landscape through a commanding depth and breadth of vision .
Theoretical physicist John D. Barrow , who passed away on September 26 at the age of 67 , was one such individual .
Barrow ’ s career spanned the golden age of cosmology , in which the subject was transformed from a scientific backwater to a mainstream precision science .
He was both a player and a commentator in these heady times , producing several hundred research papers and scholarly articles , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ books , each a model of wit and clarity that made him a public intellectual worldwide .
A Londoner by birth , Barrow obtained a doctorate from the University of Oxford in 1977 under the direction of Dennis Sciama , joining the ranks of a formidable lineup of mentees that included Martin Rees and Stephen Hawking .
This came at a time of crisis in cosmology .
Although the big bang hypothesis for the origin of the universe was well established , the originating event itself remained a mystery ; in particular , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Analysis of the cosmic microwave background radiation—the fading afterglow of the big bang discovered in the late 1960s—indicated that the universe erupted into existence in an astonishingly uniform state .
The expansion rate of the universe also matched its gravitating power to extraordinary precision .
It looked like a fix .
Barrow addressed these foundational questions in a series of papers on smoothing mechanisms applied to chaotic cosmological expansion , followed in later years by analyses that included extensions to Einstein ’ s general theory of relativity and various alternative theories of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ theory , which explains the “ fix ” as resulting from a sudden burst of accelerating expansion in the first split second of cosmic existence , provided additional fertile ground for Barrow ’ s theoretical explorations .
After a stint at the University of California , Berkeley , he took up a position at the then relatively new University of Sussex in the south of England , where he produced a stunning output of journal papers , soon making him something of a scientific celebrity .
His research addressed issues as diverse as @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the universe , the theory of black holes , the nature of dark matter and the origin of galaxies .
His early preoccupation with initial cosmic conditions led Barrow to reinstate in physical science the ancient philosophical concept of teleology , which ( in its various guises ) takes into account final as well as initial states .
The centerpiece of this approach was a remarkable book published in 1986 and co-authored with physicist Frank Tipler entitled The Anthropic Cosmological Principle .
It built on the recognition that if the initial state of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ physics had deviated—in some cases , by just a tiny amount—from the values we observe , the universe would not be suitable for life .
The book is a detailed and extensive compilation of such felicitous biofriendly “ coincidences , ” and it became a canonical reference text for a generation of physicists .
It also provoked something of a backlash for flirting with notions of cosmic purpose and straying too close to theology in some people ’ s eyes .
Nevertheless , its style of “ anthropic ” reasoning subsequently became a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ arsenal , albeit a still contentious one .
More recently , Barrow was interested in the possibility that the fine-structure constant—an unexplained number that describes the strength of the electromagnetic force—might not be constant at all but rather vary over cosmological scales .
He produced a theoretical basis for incorporating such a phenomenon in physical law while also remaining open-minded on the observational evidence .
His adventurous choices of research problems typified Barrow ’ s intellectual style , which was to challenge the hidden assumptions underpinning cherished mainstream theories .
Fundamental problems in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ he reasoned , because we are thinking about them the wrong way .
It was a mode of thought that resonated with many colleagues , this writer included , who are drawn to reflect on the deepest questions of existence .
In 1999 Barrow moved to the University of Cambridge as a professor in the department of applied mathematics and theoretical physics and became a fellow of Clare Hall College .
In parallel , he completed two separate periods as a professor at the select Gresham College , founded in 1597 to organize @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s Cambridge appointment included his directorship of the Millennium Mathematics Project .
This is an educational program that caters to the needs of elementary and high school children in imaginative ways .
But this demanding array of teaching responsibilities did not deter Barrow from his prodigious research output .
Barrow had many talents beyond the realm of theoretical physics and mathematics .
In his younger years , he was an Olympic-standard middle-distance runner .
Barrow followed sports in general , and running in particular , with undiminished enthusiasm throughout his life .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ regularly traveled to Italy for his sartorial purchases .
He was also a connoisseur of fine dining , making him the ideal travelling companion .
An engaging raconteur , Barrow boasted a fund of humorous stories about politics , academia and the humanities .
Touch on almost any subject , and he would have something entertaining to say about it .
Barrow ’ s scholarship and writing extended to art theory , musicology , history , philosophy and religion—a grasp of human culture aptly recognized by an invitation to deliver the prestigious Centenary @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in 1989 and also by the 2006 Templeton Prize .
These acknowledgments were in addition to many notable scientific and academic honors , including being made a Fellow of the Royal Society .
The Barrow family ’ s members loved Italy , where they maintained many professional and social contacts over the decades .
It was in Milan that another remarkable John Barrow project culminated : the premiere of the stage play Infinities , which he had written .
It duly received the Premi Ubu Italian theater prize .
It was thus , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ his wife Elizabeth were able to make one last trip there just a few weeks ago , in the face of onerous coronavirus-related travel restrictions and the debilitating effects of treatment for his colon cancer .
John Barrow died at home and is survived by his wife and three children .

A truly great scientist not only makes significant technical contributions but also reshapes a discipline’s conceptual landscape through a commanding depth and breadth of vision. Theoretical physicist John D. Barrow, who passed away on September 26 at the age of 67, was one such individual. Barrow’s career spanned the golden age of cosmology, in which the subject was transformed from a scientific backwater to a mainstream precision science. He was both a player and a commentator in these heady times, producing several hundred research papers and scholarly articles, as well as a string of expository books, each a model of wit and clarity that made him a public intellectual worldwide.
A Londoner by birth, Barrow obtained a doctorate from the University of Oxford in 1977 under the direction of Dennis Sciama, joining the ranks of a formidable lineup of mentees that included Martin Rees and Stephen Hawking. This came at a time of crisis in cosmology. Although the big bang hypothesis for the origin of the universe was well established, the originating event itself remained a mystery; in particular, there was puzzlement about the initial conditions. Analysis of the cosmic microwave background radiation—the fading afterglow of the big bang discovered in the late 1960s—indicated that the universe erupted into existence in an astonishingly uniform state. The expansion rate of the universe also matched its gravitating power to extraordinary precision. It looked like a fix. Barrow addressed these foundational questions in a series of papers on smoothing mechanisms applied to chaotic cosmological expansion, followed in later years by analyses that included extensions to Einstein’s general theory of relativity and various alternative theories of gravitation. The currently popular inflationary universe theory, which explains the “fix” as resulting from a sudden burst of accelerating expansion in the first split second of cosmic existence, provided additional fertile ground for Barrow’s theoretical explorations.
After a stint at the University of California, Berkeley, he took up a position at the then relatively new University of Sussex in the south of England, where he produced a stunning output of journal papers, soon making him something of a scientific celebrity. His research addressed issues as diverse as the asymmetry between matter and antimatter in the universe, the theory of black holes, the nature of dark matter and the origin of galaxies. His early preoccupation with initial cosmic conditions led Barrow to reinstate in physical science the ancient philosophical concept of teleology, which (in its various guises) takes into account final as well as initial states. The centerpiece of this approach was a remarkable book published in 1986 and co-authored with physicist Frank Tipler entitled The Anthropic Cosmological Principle. It built on the recognition that if the initial state of the universe or the fundamental constants of physics had deviated—in some cases, by just a tiny amount—from the values we observe, the universe would not be suitable for life. The book is a detailed and extensive compilation of such felicitous biofriendly “coincidences,” and it became a canonical reference text for a generation of physicists. It also provoked something of a backlash for flirting with notions of cosmic purpose and straying too close to theology in some people’s eyes. Nevertheless, its style of “anthropic” reasoning subsequently became a familiar part of the theorist’s arsenal, albeit a still contentious one.
More recently, Barrow was interested in the possibility that the fine-structure constant—an unexplained number that describes the strength of the electromagnetic force—might not be constant at all but rather vary over cosmological scales. He produced a theoretical basis for incorporating such a phenomenon in physical law while also remaining open-minded on the observational evidence. His adventurous choices of research problems typified Barrow’s intellectual style, which was to challenge the hidden assumptions underpinning cherished mainstream theories. Fundamental problems in physics and cosmology may appear intractable, he reasoned, because we are thinking about them the wrong way. It was a mode of thought that resonated with many colleagues, this writer included, who are drawn to reflect on the deepest questions of existence.
In 1999 Barrow moved to the University of Cambridge as a professor in the department of applied mathematics and theoretical physics and became a fellow of Clare Hall College. In parallel, he completed two separate periods as a professor at the select Gresham College, founded in 1597 to organize free public lectures in London. Barrow’s Cambridge appointment included his directorship of the Millennium Mathematics Project. This is an educational program that caters to the needs of elementary and high school children in imaginative ways. But this demanding array of teaching responsibilities did not deter Barrow from his prodigious research output.
Barrow had many talents beyond the realm of theoretical physics and mathematics. In his younger years, he was an Olympic-standard middle-distance runner. Barrow followed sports in general, and running in particular, with undiminished enthusiasm throughout his life. He was a strikingly stylish dresser and regularly traveled to Italy for his sartorial purchases. He was also a connoisseur of fine dining, making him the ideal travelling companion. An engaging raconteur, Barrow boasted a fund of humorous stories about politics, academia and the humanities. Touch on almost any subject, and he would have something entertaining to say about it. Barrow’s scholarship and writing extended to art theory, musicology, history, philosophy and religion—a grasp of human culture aptly recognized by an invitation to deliver the prestigious Centenary Gifford Lectures at the University of Glasgow in 1989 and also by the 2006 Templeton Prize. These acknowledgments were in addition to many notable scientific and academic honors, including being made a Fellow of the Royal Society.
The Barrow family’s members loved Italy, where they maintained many professional and social contacts over the decades. It was in Milan that another remarkable John Barrow project culminated: the premiere of the stage play Infinities, which he had written. It duly received the Premi Ubu Italian theater prize. It was thus, with some poignancy, that John and his wife Elizabeth were able to make one last trip there just a few weeks ago, in the face of onerous coronavirus-related travel restrictions and the debilitating effects of treatment for his colon cancer. John Barrow died at home and is survived by his wife and three children.


scientificamerican--2020-10-10--Climate Anxiety and Mental Illness

Climate Anxiety and Mental Illness

In mid-September , with much of the American West engulfed in flames , the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration announced that the Northern Hemisphere just experienced its hottest summer on record .
Reports like this are increasingly common , and with each one climate change continues to morph from a vague notion of far-off future catastrophe to an unsettling reality unfolding before our eyes .
While denial continues to hinder efforts to respond to climate change , nearly three fourths of Americans now think it ’ s occurring , more than 60 percent believe it is caused by humans , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ re at least “ somewhat worried ” by it .
Recently the term “ climate anxiety ” has crept into the lexicon to better describe our growing concerns about climate change .
While there is evidence that climate anxiety can be identified and reliably measured , what ’ s less clear is how it relates to mental illness .
Mental health providers across the world are noting the presence of climate anxiety in their patients ; however , the degree to which it is influencing mental illness is not yet clear , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ growing .
For years now , mental health clinicians have seen climate anxiety influencing presentations of mental illness in a variety of ways , some extreme .
For example , one case reported in the medical literature discusses a 17-year-old patient who was so concerned about climate change that he became delusional , believing that if he continued to drink water or use it for tasks at home , millions of people would soon die as a result of his consumption of their water supplies .
Similarly , a study of individuals with @ @ @ @ @ @ @ third of individuals with OCD in Australia had compulsions focused on checking light switches , water taps , stoves and other items to reduce their carbon footprint .
Recent studies are starting to look at links between climate anxiety and mental illness in larger samples to help better understand the directionality of their relationship .
In a U.S. survey of more than 340 people published in 2018 , climate concerns were associated with depressive symptoms .
Ecological coping , which includes proenvironmental behaviors such as reducing energy consumption , appeared to be protective @ @ @ @ @ @ @ poor coping skills to address them could be causing depressive symptoms .
In Tuvalu , an island country in the Pacific Ocean at significant risk of being devastated by climate change in the near future , a survey published this year found that 87 percent of respondents reported such severe climate anxiety it impaired their ability to perform at least one activity of daily living .
Such high rates of debilitating distress in this group suggest that individual populations will likely see more mental illness stemming from concerns about climate change as its @ @ @ @ @ @ @ who might be more vulnerable to mental illness secondary to the uncertainties around climate change ?
Unsurprisingly , climate anxiety appears higher in individuals with more concern about environmental issues at baseline and those already experiencing direct effects of climate change .
Climatologists also face increased risk given their in-depth knowledge on the issue coupled with the frustrating task of trying to convey it to individuals and governments that often deny or downplay it .
People with high levels of neuroticism , a personality trait that increases susceptibility to mental illness , are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Young people are a demographic of particular concern , since a recent national survey revealed that climate changes makes 57 percent of American teens feel afraid and 43 percent hopeless .
There is an extensive generational gap in climate change concern , with younger individuals being more likely to believe climate change will pose a serious threat in their lifetimes .
Young people also report more functional impairment secondary to climate anxiety than older people .
As younger people embrace with growing certainty the likelihood they could be inheriting a dying planet @ @ @ @ @ @ @ re considering not having children in order to reduce their carbon footprint .
Their worries are especially alarming in light of growing suicide rates among adolescents and young adults , with a tripling of the rate among people aged 10–14 during 2007–2017 .
We don ’ t know whether climate anxiety might be affecting suicide rates in this demographic , but the possibility of a connection demands ongoing vigilance and investigation .
The sociologist Émile Durkheim , who published the first extensive study of suicide in 1897 , posited that many suicides happen @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and there ’ s a weakening of a society ’ s regulatory institutions .
Our current politically fueled controversy over climate change seems to present a perfect storm for increased suicidality as American youth grow distant from a society run by older political leaders , many of whom deny climate change altogether and even seek to weaken the scientific institutions whose very job it is to bring attention to it .
They ’ ve also seen activists from their ranks such as Greta Thunberg dismissed and even personally attacked by prominent leaders , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Climate anxiety among young people is likely greatly magnified by such behavior , given the sense of powerlessness it instills .
Some individuals report adaptive responses to climate anxiety like adopting proenvironmental behaviors and participating in collective action , while others are unable to respond behaviorally at all .
It ’ s not yet apparent how these varying reactions manifest on a population level and how they ’ re influencing humanity ’ s response to climate change .
However , a recent survey of nearly 200 people found that , while climate @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to climate change , it was not correlated with a behavioral response .
If this is true for humanity as a whole , we must urgently help motivate the anxious among us .
Doing so successfully will require many approaches , such as delivering cognitive-behavioral therapy to the most severely affected to demonstrating to entire populations that change is possible by better publicizing productive efforts by organizations to reduce their carbon footprints .
We can ’ t let climate anxiety stop us from responding to climate change , because now , more than @ @ @ @ @ @ @ paralysis .

In mid-September, with much of the American West engulfed in flames, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration announced that the Northern Hemisphere just experienced its hottest summer on record. Reports like this are increasingly common, and with each one climate change continues to morph from a vague notion of far-off future catastrophe to an unsettling reality unfolding before our eyes. While denial continues to hinder efforts to respond to climate change, nearly three fourths of Americans now think it’s occurring, more than 60 percent believe it is caused by humans, and more than two thirds report they’re at least “somewhat worried” by it.
Recently the term “climate anxiety” has crept into the lexicon to better describe our growing concerns about climate change. While there is evidence that climate anxiety can be identified and reliably measured, what’s less clear is how it relates to mental illness. Mental health providers across the world are noting the presence of climate anxiety in their patients; however, the degree to which it is influencing mental illness is not yet clear, though evidence addressing this question is slowly growing.
For years now, mental health clinicians have seen climate anxiety influencing presentations of mental illness in a variety of ways, some extreme. For example, one case reported in the medical literature discusses a 17-year-old patient who was so concerned about climate change that he became delusional, believing that if he continued to drink water or use it for tasks at home, millions of people would soon die as a result of his consumption of their water supplies. Similarly, a study of individuals with obsessive compulsive disorder found that nearly a third of individuals with OCD in Australia had compulsions focused on checking light switches, water taps, stoves and other items to reduce their carbon footprint.
Recent studies are starting to look at links between climate anxiety and mental illness in larger samples to help better understand the directionality of their relationship. In a U.S. survey of more than 340 people published in 2018, climate concerns were associated with depressive symptoms. Ecological coping, which includes proenvironmental behaviors such as reducing energy consumption, appeared to be protective against depression, indicating climate concerns and poor coping skills to address them could be causing depressive symptoms. In Tuvalu, an island country in the Pacific Ocean at significant risk of being devastated by climate change in the near future, a survey published this year found that 87 percent of respondents reported such severe climate anxiety it impaired their ability to perform at least one activity of daily living. Such high rates of debilitating distress in this group suggest that individual populations will likely see more mental illness stemming from concerns about climate change as its repercussions draw nearer to them.
So who might be more vulnerable to mental illness secondary to the uncertainties around climate change? Unsurprisingly, climate anxiety appears higher in individuals with more concern about environmental issues at baseline and those already experiencing direct effects of climate change. Climatologists also face increased risk given their in-depth knowledge on the issue coupled with the frustrating task of trying to convey it to individuals and governments that often deny or downplay it. People with high levels of neuroticism, a personality trait that increases susceptibility to mental illness, are also likely to be at high risk.
Young people are a demographic of particular concern, since a recent national survey revealed that climate changes makes 57 percent of American teens feel afraid and 43 percent hopeless. There is an extensive generational gap in climate change concern, with younger individuals being more likely to believe climate change will pose a serious threat in their lifetimes. Young people also report more functional impairment secondary to climate anxiety than older people.
As younger people embrace with growing certainty the likelihood they could be inheriting a dying planet, many are so concerned they’re considering not having children in order to reduce their carbon footprint. Their worries are especially alarming in light of growing suicide rates among adolescents and young adults, with a tripling of the rate among people aged 10–14 during 2007–2017. We don’t know whether climate anxiety might be affecting suicide rates in this demographic, but the possibility of a connection demands ongoing vigilance and investigation.
The sociologist Émile Durkheim, who published the first extensive study of suicide in 1897, posited that many suicides happen when free-thinking individuals feel disconnected from society and there’s a weakening of a society’s regulatory institutions. Our current politically fueled controversy over climate change seems to present a perfect storm for increased suicidality as American youth grow distant from a society run by older political leaders, many of whom deny climate change altogether and even seek to weaken the scientific institutions whose very job it is to bring attention to it.
They’ve also seen activists from their ranks such as Greta Thunberg dismissed and even personally attacked by prominent leaders, demonstrating their concerns are being ignored outright. Climate anxiety among young people is likely greatly magnified by such behavior, given the sense of powerlessness it instills.
Some individuals report adaptive responses to climate anxiety like adopting proenvironmental behaviors and participating in collective action, while others are unable to respond behaviorally at all. It’s not yet apparent how these varying reactions manifest on a population level and how they’re influencing humanity’s response to climate change. However, a recent survey of nearly 200 people found that, while climate anxiety was associated with an emotional response to climate change, it was not correlated with a behavioral response.
If this is true for humanity as a whole, we must urgently help motivate the anxious among us. Doing so successfully will require many approaches, such as delivering cognitive-behavioral therapy to the most severely affected to demonstrating to entire populations that change is possible by better publicizing productive efforts by organizations to reduce their carbon footprints. We can’t let climate anxiety stop us from responding to climate change, because now, more than ever, we need action, not paralysis.


scientificamerican--2020-10-11--Neanderthal DNA May Be COVID Risk

Neanderthal DNA May Be COVID Risk

The risk factors for COVID-19 are many : old age ; obesity ; heart conditions .
But early genetic studies have identified another trait that some people who develop severe COVID-19 seem to share : a cluster of genetic variations on their third chromosome .
And that DNA sequence likely derives from Neanderthals , says Hugo Zeberg of the Max Planck Institute .
`` It 's quite striking this variant has lingered on for 50,000 years . ''
Fifty-thousand years ago is the approximate time humans and Neanderthals interbred .
And over the millennia , these Neanderthal variants have become @ @ @ @ @ @ @ than others .
For example , 16 percent of people of European descent carry at least one copy of the Neanderthal stretch ; half of South Asians do—and nearly TWO-thirds of Bangladeshis .
`` And it 's fascinating it is so high .
Points to the fact that it must have been beneficial in the past .
It 's much higher than we expect .
And then it 's totally expunged in East Asia and China .
So something has happened , driving the frequency up in certain places , and removing it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ details are in the journal Nature .
[ Zeberg , H. et al .
The major genetic risk factor for severe COVID- 19 is inherited from Neanderthals ] Zeberg and his colleague write that perhaps the Neanderthal DNA happens to boost the risk of developing severe COVID-19—and they point to the fact that in the U.K. , people of Bangladeshi descent have twice the risk of dying of COVID-19 than the general population .
But as epidemiologist Keith Neal of the University of Nottingham pointed out via email , people of African descent @ @ @ @ @ @ @ more by the virus—despite having hardly any Neanderthal genes .
Instead , it 's social factors—like crowded , multigenerational households or working front line jobs—that are more likely to be driving the trends seen in the U.K. That 's according to Andrew Hayward , director of the Institute of Epidemiology and Health Care at University College London .
And , as both epidemiologists pointed out—it ’ s worth remembering that you can only develop severe COVID-19 if you 're exposed to the virus in the first place .
[ The above text is @ @ @ @ @ @ @

Full Transcript
The risk factors for COVID-19 are many: old age, obesity, heart conditions. But early genetic studies have identified another trait that some people who develop severe COVID-19 seem to share: a cluster of genetic variations on their third chromosome.
And that DNA sequence likely derives from Neandertals, says Hugo Zeberg of the Max Planck Institute.
“It’s quite striking this variant has lingered on for 50,000 years.”
Fifty thousand years ago is the approximate time humans and Neandertals interbred. And over the millennia, these Neandertal variants have become more common in some Homo sapiens populations than others.
For example, 16 percent of people of European descent carry at least one copy of the Neandertal stretch. Half of South Asians do—and nearly two thirds of Bangladeshis.
“And it’s fascinating it is so high—points to the fact that it must have been beneficial in the past. It’s much higher than we expect. And then it’s totally expunged in East Asia and China. So something has happened, driving the frequency up in certain places and removing it totally in other places.”
The details are in the journal Nature. [Hugo Zeberg and Svante Pääbo, The major genetic risk factor for severe COVID- 19 is inherited from Neanderthals]
Zeberg and his colleague write that perhaps the Neandertal DNA happens to boost the risk of developing severe COVID-19—and they point to the fact that in the U.K., people of Bangladeshi descent have twice the risk of dying of COVID-19 than the general population.
But as epidemiologist Keith Neal of the University of Nottingham pointed out via e-mail, people of African descent in the U.K. are also being hurt more by the virus—despite having hardly any Neandertal genes.
Instead it’s social factors—like crowded, multigenerational households or working frontline jobs—that are more likely to be driving the trends seen in the U.K. That’s according to Andrew Hayward, director of the Institute of Epidemiology and Health Care at University College London.
And as both epidemiologists pointed out, it’s worth remembering that you can only develop severe COVID-19 if you’re exposed to the virus in the first place.
—Christopher Intagliata
[The above text is a transcript of this podcast.]