scientificamerican--2020-12-01--Does Failure Make Victory Seem Sweeter?

Does Failure Make Victory Seem Sweeter?

We ’ ve all encountered failure .
Perhaps , it ’ s blowing a job interview , failing a final exam , or getting rejected from your dream school .
Whether we like it or not , failure is part of life .
But eventually , we ’ re told , overcoming difficult obstacles will make a future success taste so much sweeter .
New research , however , may challenge this maxim .
In expectation , at least , initial failure can lead people to underestimate how good it would feel to succeed .
Life is full of setbacks @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is of great importance both to their decisions and achievements .
Previous research has shown that hedonic expectations are key : “ If I should reach that goal , how happy would I feel ?
” In a recent study , we wanted to understand how such expectations may change in the face of failure .
Are people able to predict their own happiness ?
The proverb claiming that “ the grass is always greener on the other side ” suggests that people spend much of their time longing for things they ca @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of this tendency by reducing the perceived availability of a product to create a sense of scarcity and increase its popularity .
According to this logic , the harder it is to attain , the higher thevaluation .
But is this a good model for how ordinary people process failure ?
According to Aesop 's fable The Fox and the Grapes , failure often has the direct opposite effect—persuading us to abandon our previous plan .
In the fable , the fox is drawn to a bunch of grapes hanging from the vine @ @ @ @ @ @ @ them .
But , although he jumps with all his strength , he fails to reach the grapes and soon realizes they are hanging too high above the ground .
Finally , the fox changes his mind and walks away—concluding that the grapes were probably sour anyway .
According to this tale , initial failure can make future success appear less attractive .
So , which is it : greener grass or sour grapes ?
Inspired by these competing conceptions , our team of researchers turned each narrative into a testable hypothesis and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and the U.S. to determine how people respond to failure .
In the study , about 1,200 participants were randomly assigned to receive either good or poor feedback on the practice trial of a cognitive test .
Using a false-feedback procedure , half of the sample was told that they had performed in the bottom 20 percent , while the other half was told that they had performed in the top 20 percent .
They were then asked to predict how they would feel if they earned a high score on the actual @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 10 percent .
They reported their predictive pleasure on a rating scale from zero to 10 , indicating the amount of happiness , gratitude and pride they would feel after earning a top result .
In line with modern method standards , the paper also included a preregistered replication study in a large sample , to make sure the main finding was robust .
If the grass is “ always greener on the other side , ” people receiving poor feedback on the practice trial would predict higher happiness with future success than @ @ @ @ @ @ @ start .
But , if the participants reacted more like Aesop 's fox , they would respond less eagerly and try to distance themselves from failure .
Following Aesop 's lead , the results showed that initial failure made future success appear less attractive .
Specifically , those who received poor feedback on the practice trial predicted that they would feel less happiness , less gratitude and less pride after a top performance , compared to those who received strong feedback from the start .
However , later in the experiment , when @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on the actual test , they were just as happy as those who received a strong initial score , and much happier than they had predicted in advance .
This suggests that the initial failure made people underestimatehow good it would feel to succeed in the future .
Drawing inspiration from Aesop , we termed this phenomenon the `` sour-grape effect '' : a systematic tendency to downplay the value of unattainable goals and rewards .
The question though , is whyfailure makes us downplay our future happiness .
According to the notion @ @ @ @ @ @ @ forward by Columbia philosophy professor Jon Elster , people do n't always know what they want , and often adjust their desires to what appears within reach .
That is , human preferences are sometimes a function of what is possible , rather than what is ideal .
This perspective aligns with the cognitive dissonance theory in psychology , which suggests that people seek to maintain a positive and consistent view of themselves .
When the outcome doesn ’ t fit the image they have of themselves , they respond by devaluing the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ other words , when personal failure occurs , one way of protecting our positive sense of self is to deny the emotional relevance of future achievements in order to avoid this “ dissonance.
” Our results support the logic that the sour-grape effect is designed for self-protection .
Participants who received poor test feedback did n't only predict lower happiness following a future high score ; they also claimed that their cognitive performance was irrelevant to their personal identity and future success in life , until they surprisingly received a top result on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ high happiness ratings after the final result suggest that deep inside , they knew their test performance was relevant all along .
The findings may be surprising for readers with a background in psychology and behavioral economics , as the typical result in previous research indicates that people tend to overestimatetheir emotional responses to future events—a phenomenon known as “ impact bias.
” But our study demonstrated a sour-grape effect that goes in the opposite direction , as an exception from the rule .
As a defensive response to failure , people may @ @ @ @ @ @ @ desired goals .
The sour-grape effect suggests that the stories we tell ourselves about what we want in life may be restricted by what we can get .
Often , we do n't really know what we want , or how much we want it , until we achieve it .
Related studies by other research teams have found similar effects in dating scenarios and the political domain , indicating that our current preferences are shaped by the likelihood of reaching our goal .
If you believe that it is highly unlikely that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the world or land your dream job , you may underestimate how good it would feel ifit actually did happen .
And , as a consequence , this prediction bias might prevent people from fully committing .
But detachment from personal goals can also be a useful strategy , if it helps the person shift their attention from the impossible to better and more achievable goals .
As economists put it , “ opportunity costs , ” or alternative possibilities , should also be taken into account .
However , if the sour-grape @ @ @ @ @ @ @ become fearful of failure , they could miss out on the chance to try again and realize that what once seemed impossible is now within reach .

We’ve all encountered failure. Perhaps, it’s blowing a job interview, failing a final exam, or getting rejected from your dream school. Whether we like it or not, failure is part of life. But eventually, we’re told, overcoming difficult obstacles will make a future success taste so much sweeter. New research, however, may challenge this maxim. In expectation, at least, initial failure can lead people to underestimate how good it would feel to succeed.
Life is full of setbacks. How people respond to these obstacles is of great importance both to their decisions and achievements. Previous research has shown that hedonic expectations are key: “If I should reach that goal, how happy would I feel?” In a recent study, we wanted to understand how such expectations may change in the face of failure. Are people able to predict their own happiness?
The proverb claiming that “the grass is always greener on the other side” suggests that people spend much of their time longing for things they can't have. Marketing teams take advantage of this tendency by reducing the perceived availability of a product to create a sense of scarcity and increase its popularity. According to this logic, the harder it is to attain, the higher the valuation. But is this a good model for how ordinary people process failure?
According to Aesop's fable The Fox and the Grapes, failure often has the direct opposite effect—persuading us to abandon our previous plan. In the fable, the fox is drawn to a bunch of grapes hanging from the vine and tries to leap up and grab them. But, although he jumps with all his strength, he fails to reach the grapes and soon realizes they are hanging too high above the ground. Finally, the fox changes his mind and walks away—concluding that the grapes were probably sour anyway. According to this tale, initial failure can make future success appear less attractive.
So, which is it: greener grass or sour grapes? Inspired by these competing conceptions, our team of researchers turned each narrative into a testable hypothesis and conducted a series of experiments in Norway and the U.S. to determine how people respond to failure.
In the study, about 1,200 participants were randomly assigned to receive either good or poor feedback on the practice trial of a cognitive test. Using a false-feedback procedure, half of the sample was told that they had performed in the bottom 20 percent, while the other half was told that they had performed in the top 20 percent. They were then asked to predict how they would feel if they earned a high score on the actual test, placing them in the top 10 percent. They reported their predictive pleasure on a rating scale from zero to 10, indicating the amount of happiness, gratitude and pride they would feel after earning a top result. In line with modern method standards, the paper also included a preregistered replication study in a large sample, to make sure the main finding was robust.
If the grass is “always greener on the other side,” people receiving poor feedback on the practice trial would predict higher happiness with future success than those who received good feedback from the start. But, if the participants reacted more like Aesop's fox, they would respond less eagerly and try to distance themselves from failure.
Following Aesop's lead, the results showed that initial failure made future success appear less attractive. Specifically, those who received poor feedback on the practice trial predicted that they would feel less happiness, less gratitude and less pride after a top performance, compared to those who received strong feedback from the start. However, later in the experiment, when those same participants received a top score on the actual test, they were just as happy as those who received a strong initial score, and much happier than they had predicted in advance. This suggests that the initial failure made people underestimate how good it would feel to succeed in the future.
Drawing inspiration from Aesop, we termed this phenomenon the “sour-grape effect”: a systematic tendency to downplay the value of unattainable goals and rewards.
The question though, is why failure makes us downplay our future happiness. According to the notion of “adaptive preferences,” put forward by Columbia philosophy professor Jon Elster, people don't always know what they want, and often adjust their desires to what appears within reach. That is, human preferences are sometimes a function of what is possible, rather than what is ideal. This perspective aligns with the cognitive dissonance theory in psychology, which suggests that people seek to maintain a positive and consistent view of themselves. When the outcome doesn’t fit the image they have of themselves, they respond by devaluing the goal—rather than devaluing the self. In other words, when personal failure occurs, one way of protecting our positive sense of self is to deny the emotional relevance of future achievements in order to avoid this “dissonance.”
Our results support the logic that the sour-grape effect is designed for self-protection. Participants who received poor test feedback didn't only predict lower happiness following a future high score; they also claimed that their cognitive performance was irrelevant to their personal identity and future success in life, until they surprisingly received a top result on the actual test. Ultimately, their high happiness ratings after the final result suggest that deep inside, they knew their test performance was relevant all along.
The findings may be surprising for readers with a background in psychology and behavioral economics, as the typical result in previous research indicates that people tend to overestimate their emotional responses to future events—a phenomenon known as “impact bias.” But our study demonstrated a sour-grape effect that goes in the opposite direction, as an exception from the rule. As a defensive response to failure, people may actually underestimate their future happiness after reaching desired goals.
The sour-grape effect suggests that the stories we tell ourselves about what we want in life may be restricted by what we can get. Often, we don't really know what we want, or how much we want it, until we achieve it. Related studies by other research teams have found similar effects in dating scenarios and the political domain, indicating that our current preferences are shaped by the likelihood of reaching our goal. If you believe that it is highly unlikely that you will create a positive change in the world or land your dream job, you may underestimate how good it would feel if it actually did happen. And, as a consequence, this prediction bias might prevent people from fully committing.
But detachment from personal goals can also be a useful strategy, if it helps the person shift their attention from the impossible to better and more achievable goals. As economists put it, “opportunity costs,” or alternative possibilities, should also be taken into account. However, if the sour-grape effect kicks in too early and people become fearful of failure, they could miss out on the chance to try again and realize that what once seemed impossible is now within reach.


scientificamerican--2020-12-01--In 2020, Record-Breaking Hurricanes Arrived Early--and Often

Editor ’ s Note ( 11/30/20 ) : This story has been updated to include the two additional storms that formed during hurricane season , which officially ends today .
The 2020 season set a record of 30 named storms .
The 2020 Atlantic hurricane season has truly been one for the record books .
With 28 named storms , it is currently tied with 2005 for the most storms in a single season .
( Named storms are those that reach at least tropical storm strength , meaning they have wind speeds of 39 miles per hour or higher @ @ @ @ @ @ @ year ’ s official storm name list , just as they did in 2005 , which means they had to move to the supplementary Greek alphabet .
Those two years are the only ones in which this has ever happened .
Of the 28 storms that have formed so far this year , 25 were the earliest of their storm sequence to do so .
The graphic below shows how many days earlier in the year each storm formed than the previous record holder ; many storms in the latter group occurred in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of 2020 , which occurred before the official start of hurricane season , did not set records . )
Hurricane Eta , the 28th storm of 2020 , first became a tropical storm a whopping two months before Tropical Storm Zeta became the 28th storm of 2005 .
( The mismatch in names happened because when researchers looked back over records from 2005 , they found a mid-season storm that was missed at the time . )
The 2020 season has been an active one in part because of very warm ocean waters @ @ @ @ @ @ @ grow .
As the oceans absorb more and more of the excess heat trapped by greenhouse gases , waters will get warmer earlier in the season , which could help set new records in the future .

Editor’s Note (12/1/20): This story has been updated to include the two additional storms that formed during hurricane season, which officially ended yesterday. The 2020 season set a record of 30 named storms.
The 2020 Atlantic hurricane season has truly been one for the record books. With 30 named storms, it has set the record for the most named storms in a single season. (Named storms are those that reach at least tropical storm strength, meaning they have wind speeds of 39 miles per hour or higher.) Forecasters already used up this year’s official storm name list, just as they did in 2005, which means they had to move to the supplementary Greek alphabet. Those two years are the only ones in which this has ever happened.
Of the 30 storms that have formed so far this year, 27 were the earliest of their storm sequence to do so. The graphic below shows how many days earlier in the year each storm formed than the previous record holder; many storms in the latter group occurred in 2005. (The first two storms of 2020, which occurred before the official start of hurricane season, did not set records.) Hurricane Eta, the 28th storm of 2020, first became a tropical storm a whopping two months before Tropical Storm Zeta became the 28th storm of 2005. (The mismatch in names happened because when researchers looked back over records from 2005, they found a mid-season storm that was missed at the time.)
The 2020 season has been an active one in part because of very warm ocean waters that provide fertile ground for hurricanes to grow. As the oceans absorb more and more of the excess heat trapped by greenhouse gases, waters will get warmer earlier in the season, which could help set new records in the future.


scientificamerican--2020-12-01--Psilocybin Treatment for Mental Health Gets Legal Framework

Oregon made history on November 3 , becoming not just the first U.S. state to legalize psilocybin , the psychoactive compound in “ magic mushrooms , ” but also the first jurisdiction in the world to lay out plans for regulating the drug ’ s therapeutic use .
The next day , on the opposite coast , Johns Hopkins University researchers published results from the first randomized controlled trial of treating major depressive disorder with synthetic psilocybin .
Their study , published in JAMA Psychiatry , found 71 percent of patients experienced a “ clinically significant response ” ( an @ @ @ @ @ @ @ after treatment ) .
And 54 percent met the criteria for total “ remission of depression.
” At the U.S. federal level , psilocybin remains a completely prohibited Schedule 1 Drug , defined by the Drug Enforcement Administration as having “ no currently accepted medical use and a high potential for abuse.
” But the state-level ballot measure and positive study results broaden the legal circumstances and settings in which the potent psychedelic can be used for mental health therapy .
“ Our goal was to move psilocybin out of the medical framework @ @ @ @ @ @ @ who might safely benefit , ” meaning to allow its use by counseling therapists and not just by doctors in a hospital , says therapist Tom Eckert , co-author of the Oregon Psilocybin Therapy Ballot Measure , which passed with more than 1.2 million votes ( 55.7 percent ) .
Although Oregon is not the first place in the U.S. to loosen restrictions on psilocybin—the cities of Oakland , Denver , Ann Arbor and Washington , D.C. , voted in the past two years to effectively decriminalize the drug—it is the first to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
“ This is very different from decriminalization , which only seeks to lower the penalties for possession , ” Eckert notes .
“ We want to bring this therapy out from the underground and into [ safe therapeutic environments ] .
” Such use will be tightly regulated , however : only licensed therapists and manufacturers will be allowed to grow the mushrooms or extract psilocybin from them , or to synthetically produce the drug , set up a psilocybin therapy center or provide therapy .
There will be no dispensaries selling @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for cannabis in California and 15 other states .
People must be over 21 to receive the drug , and may only consume it at a licensed facility with a certified therapist present .
And Oregon will not be opening any legal psilocybin therapy centers until 2023 at the earliest , as the measure requires a two-year consultation with lawmakers .
The Oregon vote is the latest step in what many see as magic mushrooms ’ march to become “ the next marijuana ” : a natural therapeutic and mood-altering compound gaining mainstream @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 2015 psilocybin retreats have been allowed to operate in the Netherlands , where dozens of them cater to affluent tourists .
Even there the drug exists in a legal gray area , however : psilocybin mushrooms are illegal , but “ truffles ” ( clumps of the fungus ’ s subterranean root-like filaments ) are legal .
The potential benefits of psilocybin , LSD and other psychedelics were widely explored by psychiatrists in the 1950 and 1960s , before such drugs leaked from the lab and were embraced by the counterculture .
A @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of legitimate research for the next four decades .
But in recent years , a handful of dogged psychiatrists have revived the field .
A Johns Hopkins 2006 double-blind study ( meaning neither trial participants nor researchers knew if a subject was receiving psilocybin or placebo ) , published in the journal Psychopharmacology , demonstrated that psilocybin could give healthy volunteers “ experiences having substantial and sustained personal meaning.
” “ What is different about psilocybin , compared to other mood-altering drugs or pharmaceuticals , is the enduring meaning and belief changes that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ in a way they don ’ t with other drugs , ” says Johns Hopkins neuropharmacologist Roland Griffiths , lead author of the initial 2006 study as well as the latest one on depression .
“ It ’ s almost like reprogramming the operating system of a computer.
” Griffiths now leads the new , $ 17 million-funded Center for Psychedelic and Consciousness Research at Johns Hopkins Medicine .
Dozens of other scientific reports in the past 15 years have built on the 2006 study , demonstrating psilocybin ’ s helpfulness for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ In a 2016 paper in the Journal of Psychopharmacology , Griffiths and his team found that more than 80 percent of patients with a terminal cancer diagnosis experienced a “ significant decrease in depressed mood and anxiety ” after psilocybin combined with psychotherapy .
In the same year , other researchers published the first study demonstrating psilocybin ’ s potential to alleviate “ treatment-resistant depression ” that was not relieved by mainstream antidepressants .
British researchers at Imperial College London described in The Lancet Psychiatry the “ marked and sustained improvements ” in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ depression .
This study , however , had no control ( placebo ) group .
The latest randomized controlled trial from Johns Hopkins tested the drug in a double-blind study on 24 people suffering from major depressive disorder , which affects an estimated 300 million people worldwide .
Roughly 20 percent of Americans will experience this form of depression at some point in their lives ; by comparison , treatment-resistant depression is estimated to affect fewer than 5 percent .
In 2019 the U.S. Food and Drug Administration granted “ breakthrough ” status @ @ @ @ @ @ @ study the use of psilocybin—in conjunction with psychotherapy—for treatment-resistant depression .
This means the FDA recognises that the research “ demonstrates the drug may have substantial improvement on at least one clinically significant endpoint over available therapy , ” and that research and development will be “ expedited.
” “ I welcome the broadening of the indications , because I think psilocybin is likely to be effective in a range of disorders , ” says David Nutt , author of the initial 2016 study on psilocybin and depression , and director of the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ sciences at Imperial College London .
“ However , it is critical that we have proper screening to protect people who might be vulnerable due to psychotic predispositions.
” Rachel Aidan , a professional therapist and CEO of Synthesis Group , a Netherlands psilocybin retreat center now looking to expand operations to Oregon , agrees .
“ As excited as we all are about the power of these compounds , the reality is that they are NOT for everyone , ” she says .
“ Right now we just need to keep our @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in Oregon , and plan carefully for the future so we don ’ t rush into legalization .
We don ’ t want to recreate the 1960s and the backlash that ensued.
” Because psilocybin is thought to be most effective when given in combination with psychotherapy , the cost ( possibly involving a dozen or more hours of therapy sessions ) could remain in the thousands of dollars for the near future—and even more if the treatment involves synthetic psilocybin .
Nonetheless , many hope the latest study will lead to psilocybin @ @ @ @ @ @ @ line of defense for depression , rather than a quirky option for people who are desperate after conventional treatments fail .
Psilocybin appeals to many because of the treatment ’ s rapid and sustained effects , combined with the lack of unpleasant side effects such as weight gain and loss of libido , which are typically associated with widely prescribed SSRI antidepressants .
“ This isn ’ t about selling people a box of pills .
This is about exploring a new way to deal with depression by going into the underlying issues @ @ @ @ @ @ @ psychologist who was formerly clinical lead on the psilocybin for depression study at Imperial College London .
“ It ’ s not that this is better than antidepressants—it ’ s just better for some people .
Some people will still prefer antidepressants because they are simply more convenient .
It just makes sense to have different options , and for us to understand that different things work for different people at different times.
” Watts has now left Imperial to operate as the clinical director at Synthesis , where she works to develop @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ Rather than conduct more small trials , ” she says , “ I wanted to help set up something for people to access psilocybin therapy now.
” Actions like this by clinicians around the world are nudging psilocybin from a fringe treatment toward mainstream medicine .
As Rick Doblin , founder and executive director of the Santa Cruz , Calif.–based Multidisciplinary Association for Psychedelic Studies , puts it : “ Our long term goal is mass mental health.
” Johns Hopkins and Imperial researchers have already planned more psilocybin studies for a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ harness the drug ’ s ability to “ unblock ” people by shifting perspectives , catalyzing insights and changing problematic and habitual mindsets and behaviors .
Studies on anorexia , obsessive-compulsive disorder , smoking cessation , opiate addiction and post-traumatic stress disorder are all in the works .
Griffiths , however , is wary of efforts to rush the drug out from tightly regulated settings .
“ I ’ m sympathetic to people who are impatient , but we don ’ t want to end up in a situation where people underestimate the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ They do have significant risks , such as panic , anxiety and dangerous behavior , ” he says .
“ In Oregon , the devil is in the details in how things will unfold .
”

Editor’s Note (1/4/23): Oregon began allowing adult use of psilocybin mushrooms on January 1 after passing a ballot measure that made it the first state to legalize such use in 2020. The mushrooms must be obtained from a licensed service center and taken in the presence of a licensed facilitator. They are not being sold for home use.
Oregon made history on November 3, becoming not just the first U.S. state to legalize psilocybin, the psychoactive compound in “magic mushrooms,” but also the first jurisdiction in the world to lay out plans for regulating the drug’s therapeutic use.
The next day, on the opposite coast, Johns Hopkins University researchers published results from the first randomized controlled trial of treating major depressive disorder with synthetic psilocybin. Their study, published in JAMA Psychiatry, found 71 percent of patients experienced a “clinically significant response” (an improvement that lasted at least four weeks after treatment). And 54 percent met the criteria for total “remission of depression.”
At the U.S. federal level, psilocybin remains a completely prohibited Schedule 1 Drug, defined by the Drug Enforcement Administration as having “no currently accepted medical use and a high potential for abuse.” But the state-level ballot measure and positive study results broaden the legal circumstances and settings in which the potent psychedelic can be used for mental health therapy.
“Our goal was to move psilocybin out of the medical framework so we could provide access to anyone who might safely benefit,” meaning to allow its use by counseling therapists and not just by doctors in a hospital, says therapist Tom Eckert, co-author of the Oregon Psilocybin Therapy Ballot Measure, which passed with more than 1.2 million votes (55.7 percent). Although Oregon is not the first place in the U.S. to loosen restrictions on psilocybin—the cities of Oakland, Denver, Ann Arbor and Washington, D.C., voted in the past two years to effectively decriminalize the drug—it is the first to offer a framework for legal therapeutic use. “This is very different from decriminalization, which only seeks to lower the penalties for possession,” Eckert notes. “We want to bring this therapy out from the underground and into [safe therapeutic environments].”
Such use will be tightly regulated, however: only licensed therapists and manufacturers will be allowed to grow the mushrooms or extract psilocybin from them, or to synthetically produce the drug, set up a psilocybin therapy center or provide therapy. There will be no dispensaries selling mushrooms for recreational use, as exist for cannabis in California and 15 other states. People must be over 21 to receive the drug, and may only consume it at a licensed facility with a certified therapist present. And Oregon will not be opening any legal psilocybin therapy centers until 2023 at the earliest, as the measure requires a two-year consultation with lawmakers.
The Oregon vote is the latest step in what many see as magic mushrooms’ march to become “the next marijuana”: a natural therapeutic and mood-altering compound gaining mainstream acceptance in a regulated market. Since 2015 psilocybin retreats have been allowed to operate in the Netherlands, where dozens of them cater to affluent tourists. Even there the drug exists in a legal gray area, however: psilocybin mushrooms are illegal, but “truffles” (clumps of the fungus’s subterranean root-like filaments) are legal.
PSYCHEDELIC MEDICINE
The potential benefits of psilocybin, LSD and other psychedelics were widely explored by psychiatrists in the 1950 and 1960s, before such drugs leaked from the lab and were embraced by the counterculture. A subsequent backlash led to a strict prohibition of legitimate research for the next four decades. But in recent years, a handful of dogged psychiatrists have revived the field. A Johns Hopkins 2006 double-blind study (meaning neither trial participants nor researchers knew if a subject was receiving psilocybin or placebo), published in the journal Psychopharmacology, demonstrated that psilocybin could give healthy volunteers “experiences having substantial and sustained personal meaning.”
“What is different about psilocybin, compared to other mood-altering drugs or pharmaceuticals, is the enduring meaning and belief changes that can occur. People feel ‘reorganized’ in a way they don’t with other drugs,” says Johns Hopkins neuropharmacologist Roland Griffiths, lead author of the initial 2006 study as well as the latest one on depression. “It’s almost like reprogramming the operating system of a computer.” Griffiths now leads the new, $17 million-funded Center for Psychedelic and Consciousness Research at Johns Hopkins Medicine.
Dozens of other scientific reports in the past 15 years have built on the 2006 study, demonstrating psilocybin’s helpfulness for a variety of mental health conditions. In a 2016 paper in the Journal of Psychopharmacology, Griffiths and his team found that more than 80 percent of patients with a terminal cancer diagnosis experienced a “significant decrease in depressed mood and anxiety” after psilocybin combined with psychotherapy. In the same year, other researchers published the first study demonstrating psilocybin’s potential to alleviate “treatment-resistant depression” that was not relieved by mainstream antidepressants. British researchers at Imperial College London described in The Lancet Psychiatry the “marked and sustained improvements” in 12 patients suffering from this form of depression. This study, however, had no control (placebo) group. The latest randomized controlled trial from Johns Hopkins tested the drug in a double-blind study on 24 people suffering from major depressive disorder, which affects an estimated 300 million people worldwide. Roughly 20 percent of Americans will experience this form of depression at some point in their lives; by comparison, treatment-resistant depression is estimated to affect fewer than 5 percent.
In 2019 the U.S. Food and Drug Administration granted “breakthrough” status to a company called Compass Pathways to study the use of psilocybin—in conjunction with psychotherapy—for treatment-resistant depression. This means the FDA recognises that the research “demonstrates the drug may have substantial improvement on at least one clinically significant endpoint over available therapy,” and that research and development will be “expedited.”
“I welcome the broadening of the indications, because I think psilocybin is likely to be effective in a range of disorders,” says David Nutt, author of the initial 2016 study on psilocybin and depression, and director of the neuropsychopharmacology unit in the division of brain sciences at Imperial College London. “However, it is critical that we have proper screening to protect people who might be vulnerable due to psychotic predispositions.”
Rachel Aidan, a professional therapist and CEO of Synthesis Group, a Netherlands psilocybin retreat center now looking to expand operations to Oregon, agrees. “As excited as we all are about the power of these compounds, the reality is that they are NOT for everyone,” she says. “Right now we just need to keep our heads down to learn from the situation in Oregon, and plan carefully for the future so we don’t rush into legalization. We don’t want to recreate the 1960s and the backlash that ensued.”
AN ANTIDEPRESSANT ALTERNATIVE
Because psilocybin is thought to be most effective when given in combination with psychotherapy, the cost (possibly involving a dozen or more hours of therapy sessions) could remain in the thousands of dollars for the near future—and even more if the treatment involves synthetic psilocybin. Nonetheless, many hope the latest study will lead to psilocybin treatment being viewed more as a first line of defense for depression, rather than a quirky option for people who are desperate after conventional treatments fail. Psilocybin appeals to many because of the treatment’s rapid and sustained effects, combined with the lack of unpleasant side effects such as weight gain and loss of libido, which are typically associated with widely prescribed SSRI antidepressants.
“This isn’t about selling people a box of pills. This is about exploring a new way to deal with depression by going into the underlying issues,” says Rosalind Watts, a psychologist who was formerly clinical lead on the psilocybin for depression study at Imperial College London. “It’s not that this is better than antidepressants—it’s just better for some people. Some people will still prefer antidepressants because they are simply more convenient. It just makes sense to have different options, and for us to understand that different things work for different people at different times.”
Watts has now left Imperial to operate as the clinical director at Synthesis, where she works to develop psilocybin therapies outside of medical academia. “Rather than conduct more small trials,” she says, “I wanted to help set up something for people to access psilocybin therapy now.”
Actions like this by clinicians around the world are nudging psilocybin from a fringe treatment toward mainstream medicine. As Rick Doblin, founder and executive director of the Santa Cruz, Calif.–based Multidisciplinary Association for Psychedelic Studies, puts it: “Our long term goal is mass mental health.”
Johns Hopkins and Imperial researchers have already planned more psilocybin studies for a range of difficult-to-treat conditions, hoping to harness the drug’s ability to “unblock” people by shifting perspectives, catalyzing insights and changing problematic and habitual mindsets and behaviors. Studies on anorexia, obsessive-compulsive disorder, smoking cessation, opiate addiction and post-traumatic stress disorder are all in the works.
Griffiths, however, is wary of efforts to rush the drug out from tightly regulated settings. “I’m sympathetic to people who are impatient, but we don’t want to end up in a situation where people underestimate the potential risks of using these compounds. They do have significant risks, such as panic, anxiety and dangerous behavior,” he says. “In Oregon, the devil is in the details in how things will unfold.”


scientificamerican--2020-12-01--World AIDS Day Is a Grim Reminder That We Have Many Pandemics Going On

Observed every December 1 , World AIDS Day is a grim reminder that while we ’ re trying to constrain COVID-19 , humanity is still in the midst of multiple pandemics—and one of them has already killed about 33 million people over four decades .
In 2019 , according to UNAIDS , an estimated 38 million people were living with HIV globally and “ around 690,000 people died from AIDS-related illnesses worldwide.
” The encouraging news—as encouraging as such lethal news can be—is that 2019 ’ s mortality marked a 60 percent reduction since 2004 , the peak year of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ ve seen for 15-years may be interrupted , sadly , for the HIV and novel coronavirus ( SARS-CoV-2 ) pandemics are crashing into each other .
I first became concerned about COVID-19 ’ s effect on AIDS when I was in Greece last February doing field research .
As COVID began shutting down nearby Italy , my colleagues who did HIV prevention in Athens were trying to figure out how they ’ d keep testing and treating people if they had to go into lockdown .
In the coming months , as @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Times in August , COVID would go on to put an enormous strain on supply chains and needed resources to care for people affected by HIV , tuberculosis and malaria around the world .
Here in the U.S. , keeping people susceptible to or living with HIV getting the support they need has become an enormous challenge for colleagues in Illinois , New York and West Virginia .
And as Zachary Siegel reported in the New Republic , hard-earned gains addressing the opioid crisis , overdosing and HIV have been lost .
So @ @ @ @ @ @ @ peer-reviewed studies ) about potential coronavirus vaccines coming to market soon —some supposedly shipping around the country for potential use in just a matter of days—signal an end to at least one of these pandemics and succor to those it has harmed the most ?
There have been effective antiretroviral medications for HIV for almost 25 years now .
And yet , a majority of people AIDS has so far killed had yet to die when those drugs first arrived ; annual AIDS deaths would continue to go up for another decade , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ( mostly nonwhite ) people are still dying every year .
Why is this ?
And what does it tell us about the effect we can expect a vaccine to have on SARS-CoV-2 , a virus transmitted far more casually than HIV ; which is already in much faster circulation than HIV ever achieved ; and which has already killed about a million and a half people worldwide ?
( For comparison , HIV didn ’ t kill that many people in any given year until it had been around for almost two @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to note there is no vaccine for HIV as such .
However , the antiretroviral therapy ( ART ) taken by people who are living with HIV and the drugs that people who are HIV-negative can take as a form of pre-exposure prophylaxis ( PrEP ) do share a significant property with vaccines : they curb onward transmission .
When someone living with HIV is able to access and adhere to ART , it not only saves their life ; it makes their viral load undetectable and untransmittable to other people .
Similarly @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in their bodies , PrEP stops internal and onward transmission .
This drives viral rates down within social networks , creating something akin to herd immunity .
When HIV keeps encountering ARTs within communities , it has nowhere to go and cycles itself out of existence .
Similarly , a vaccination for measles or influenza ( or potentially for COVID-19 ) not only keeps the vaccinated person safe from infection , but keeps them from transmitting the pathogen , creating group protection within their social spheres .
And when a virus has nowhere @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Unfortunately , the inverse is also true .
When a viral rate goes down within a pharmacologically protected population , then absent an antiracist , anticapitalist medical intervention , we can expect existing disparities of race and class to get worse and for viral rates to go up within populations that don ’ t get new drugs .
As I discuss in my forthcoming book , the racial disparities of AIDS were not equalized with the advent of ARTS ; they have worsened .
Similarly , absent an anticapitalist , antiracist rollout @ @ @ @ @ @ @ should expect coronavirus rates to pool within already marginalized populations—as HIV has already concentrated amongst Black people in the U.S .
While HIV and SARS-CoV-2 are very different viruses with distinctive modes of transmission and progression , they both disparately impact a similar population that I call the viral underclass .
AIDS and COVID-19 impact similar populations that share certain social determinants of their health , particularly in regards to being unhoused .
For instances , Black Americans ( who are only about 13 percent of the population ) are somewhere between half @ @ @ @ @ @ @ forced to be unhoused in the U.S .
Being without a home criminalizes them and makes them more susceptible to poverty , incarceration , sexual abuse , lack of health care access , being locked out the formal economy and various co-morbidities that increase their risk for HIV and AIDS .
Being unhoused also makes accessing or adhering ARTs difficult if not impossible .
Similarly , in “ Pandemic Housing Policy : Examining the Relationship Among Eviction , Housing Instability , Health Inequity , and COVID-19 Transmission , ( Journal of Urban Health @ @ @ @ @ @ @ her co-authors David Vlahov , Marissa Long , Evan Walker-Wells , J.L .
Pottenger , Gregg Gonsalves and Danya Keene explain how our vile eviction crisis is fueling COVID transmission and death .
In “ 2016 , the last available year of nationwide eviction data , 3.7 million evictions were filed nationally , ” they write , which disproportionately affected “ Black and Hispanic renters.
” And given the loss of millions of units of affordable housing over the past decade , things have only gotten more dangerous for how that will affect @ @ @ @ @ @ @ al.
, write , “ Eviction immediately leads to overcrowding , doubling up , homelessness , and housing instability.
” This doesn ’ t always lead to living on the street but to “ ‘ couch surfing , ’ residing in shelters , sleeping in cars or outdoors , and doubling up with friends and family who may themselves be at risk for COVID-19 .
Given that the people they bunk up with “ often work in occupations with higher risk of exposure , ” everyone ’ s likelihood of exposure increases .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ makes accessing housing and employment more precarious in the future , too . )
“ Eviction may also lead to lower access to COVID-19 testing and medical attention by driving families to poorer , under resourced neighborhoods and medically underserved geographic areas with fewer medical facilities and providers , in addition to decreased care affordability , ” they also write .
This is going to be particularly disastrous if a coronavirus vaccination requires multiple doses spread over weeks .
( For people living with HIV , steady housing is a similar requirement for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in a home one week but in a shelter , car , friend ’ s living room or on the street the next , get the necessary dosage ?
The numbers Benfer and her coauthors present are damning : “ Lifting moratoriums ” on evictions , their literature review found , “ translated to a total of 433,700 excess cases ” of COVID-19 and “ 10,700 excess deaths between March 1 and September 3 , 2020.
” On World AIDS Day , we would do well to take stock of the ongoing pandemic @ @ @ @ @ @ @ its ongoing and unnecessary horrors that if we created a world without AIDS , we ’ d also create a world where the COVID-19 pandemic could end as well .

Observed every December 1, World AIDS Day is a grim reminder that while we’re trying to constrain COVID-19, humanity is still in the midst of multiple pandemics—and one of them has already killed about 33 million people over four decades.
In 2019, according to UNAIDS, an estimated 38 million people were living with HIV globally and “around 690,000 people died from AIDS-related illnesses worldwide.” The encouraging news—as encouraging as such lethal news can be—is that 2019’s mortality marked a 60 percent reduction since 2004, the peak year of AIDS deaths.
But the decline we’ve seen for 15-years may be interrupted, sadly, for the HIV and novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) pandemics are crashing into each other.
I first became concerned about COVID-19’s effect on AIDS when I was in Greece last February doing field research. As COVID began shutting down nearby Italy, my colleagues who did HIV prevention in Athens were trying to figure out how they’d keep testing and treating people if they had to go into lockdown. In the coming months, as Apoorva Mandavilli reported in the New York Times in August, COVID would go on to put an enormous strain on supply chains and needed resources to care for people affected by HIV, tuberculosis and malaria around the world.
Here in the U.S., keeping people susceptible to or living with HIV getting the support they need has become an enormous challenge for colleagues in Illinois, New York and West Virginia. And as Zachary Siegel reported in the New Republic, hard-earned gains addressing the opioid crisis, overdosing and HIV have been lost.
So, do hopeful press releases (not peer-reviewed studies) about potential coronavirus vaccines coming to market soon —some supposedly shipping around the country for potential use in just a matter of days—signal an end to at least one of these pandemics and succor to those it has harmed the most?
Unfortunately, AIDS history suggests not.
There have been effective antiretroviral medications for HIV for almost 25 years now. And yet, a majority of people AIDS has so far killed had yet to die when those drugs first arrived; annual AIDS deaths would continue to go up for another decade, and the better part of a million (mostly nonwhite) people are still dying every year.
Why is this? And what does it tell us about the effect we can expect a vaccine to have on SARS-CoV-2, a virus transmitted far more casually than HIV; which is already in much faster circulation than HIV ever achieved; and which has already killed about a million and a half people worldwide? (For comparison, HIV didn’t kill that many people in any given year until it had been around for almost two decades.)
It’s important to note there is no vaccine for HIV as such. However, the antiretroviral therapy (ART) taken by people who are living with HIV and the drugs that people who are HIV-negative can take as a form of pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) do share a significant property with vaccines: they curb onward transmission. When someone living with HIV is able to access and adhere to ART, it not only saves their life; it makes their viral load undetectable and untransmittable to other people. Similarly, in stopping HIV from taking hold in their bodies, PrEP stops internal and onward transmission. This drives viral rates down within social networks, creating something akin to herd immunity. When HIV keeps encountering ARTs within communities, it has nowhere to go and cycles itself out of existence.
Similarly, a vaccination for measles or influenza (or potentially for COVID-19) not only keeps the vaccinated person safe from infection, but keeps them from transmitting the pathogen, creating group protection within their social spheres. And when a virus has nowhere to go, herd immunity is achieved.
Unfortunately, the inverse is also true. When a viral rate goes down within a pharmacologically protected population, then absent an antiracist, anticapitalist medical intervention, we can expect existing disparities of race and class to get worse and for viral rates to go up within populations that don’t get new drugs. As I discuss in my forthcoming book, the racial disparities of AIDS were not equalized with the advent of ARTS; they have worsened.
Similarly, absent an anticapitalist, antiracist rollout of any potential coronavirus vaccine, we should expect coronavirus rates to pool within already marginalized populations—as HIV has already concentrated amongst Black people in the U.S.
While HIV and SARS-CoV-2 are very different viruses with distinctive modes of transmission and progression, they both disparately impact a similar population that I call the viral underclass. AIDS and COVID-19 impact similar populations that share certain social determinants of their health, particularly in regards to being unhoused. For instances, Black Americans (who are only about 13 percent of the population) are somewhere between half and two thirds of people who are forced to be unhoused in the U.S. Being without a home criminalizes them and makes them more susceptible to poverty, incarceration, sexual abuse, lack of health care access, being locked out the formal economy and various co-morbidities that increase their risk for HIV and AIDS. Being unhoused also makes accessing or adhering ARTs difficult if not impossible.
Similarly, in “Pandemic Housing Policy: Examining the Relationship Among Eviction, Housing Instability, Health Inequity, and COVID-19 Transmission, ” (Journal of Urban Health, forthcoming) author Emily Benfer and her co-authors David Vlahov, Marissa Long, Evan Walker-Wells, J.L. Pottenger, Gregg Gonsalves and Danya Keene explain how our vile eviction crisis is fueling COVID transmission and death. In “2016, the last available year of nationwide eviction data, 3.7 million evictions were filed nationally,” they write, which disproportionately affected “Black and Hispanic renters.”
And given the loss of millions of units of affordable housing over the past decade, things have only gotten more dangerous for how that will affect COVID transmission. As Benfer, et al., write, “Eviction immediately leads to overcrowding, doubling up, homelessness, and housing instability.” This doesn’t always lead to living on the street but to “‘couch surfing,’ residing in shelters, sleeping in cars or outdoors,and doubling up with friends and family who may themselves be at risk for COVID-19. Given that the people they bunk up with “often work in occupations with higher risk of exposure,” everyone’s likelihood of exposure increases. (The legal record created by eviction makes accessing housing and employment more precarious in the future, too.)
“Eviction may also lead to lower access to COVID-19 testing and medical attention by driving families to poorer, under resourced neighborhoods and medically underserved geographic areas with fewer medical facilities and providers, in addition to decreased care affordability,” they also write. This is going to be particularly disastrous if a coronavirus vaccination requires multiple doses spread over weeks. (For people living with HIV, steady housing is a similar requirement for pharmacological adherence.) How will people in a home one week but in a shelter, car, friend’s living room or on the street the next, get the necessary dosage?
The numbers Benfer and her coauthors present are damning: “Lifting moratoriums” on evictions, their literature review found, “translated to a total of 433,700 excess cases” of COVID-19 and “10,700 excess deaths between March 1 and September 3, 2020.”
On World AIDS Day, we would do well to take stock of the ongoing pandemic of AIDS, and to learn from its ongoing and unnecessary horrors that if we created a world without AIDS, we’d also create a world where the COVID-19 pandemic could end as well.


scientificamerican--2020-12-01--Ultracold Molecule Mystery Solved

Ultracold Molecule Mystery Solved

Because humans are large and warm , we can rarely see quantum mechanics in action .
To do so , physicists use lasers to cool atoms to just a trillionth of a degree above absolute zero .
This slows the atoms ' movement enough to watch them follow quantum physics rules .
But cooling molecules made of more than one atom has proved more difficult : somehow these ultracold molecules tend to sneakily heat up again , so researchers can no longer keep track of them—a phenomenon physicists call “ ultracold molecule loss.
” A study published in Nature Physics @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to better see and control ultracold molecules would help scientists assemble a quantum machine piece by piece , says Jun Ye , a physicist at the University of Colorado Boulder , who was not involved in the study .
But molecule heating throws a wrench in this process .
A pioneer of ultracold molecule experiments , Ye observed early on that reactions—a matter of quantum chemistry instead of quantum physics—were somehow heating molecules up .
Yu Liu , a researcher at Harvard University and co-leader of the study , says the researchers had @ @ @ @ @ @ @ But , Liu says , “ what we saw during the process turns out to give the answer to this question ” of ultracold molecule loss .
The scientists slowed down the chemical reactions between molecules enough to observe their behavior while in a state called “ the complex , ” which occurs in the middle of the reaction—before the molecules fully transform into the reaction 's products .
Because molecules interact with light through electrical forces , the team used lasers to keep them from flying away .
At room temperature the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ At low temperatures it sticks around longer , but the researchers found that this longevity has a cost : it gives the ultracold complex time to interact with the laser light keeping it in place .
This interaction heats up the molecules , causing some to lose their ultracold status .
Knowing about this interaction , physicists can now avoid types of lasers that excite the complex .
And the ability to see the light-complex interaction is itself promising .
Nandini Mukherjee , a Stanford University chemist , who was not involved in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is a “ long-sought goal in studying reaction mechanisms.
” Liu says the team wants to use laser light to fully control such reactions , and co-lead author Ming-Guang Hu ( also at Harvard ) adds that this process could eventually illuminate how the rules of quantum mechanics make ultracold molecular reactions different from those at room temperature .
Having solved a mystery that has long troubled quantum physicists , they now want to explain a lot more about quantum chemistry .

Because humans are large and warm, we can rarely see quantum mechanics in action. To do so, physicists use lasers to cool atoms to just a trillionth of a degree above absolute zero. This slows the atoms' movement enough to watch them follow quantum physics rules. But cooling molecules made of more than one atom has proved more difficult: somehow these ultracold molecules tend to sneakily heat up again, so researchers can no longer keep track of them—a phenomenon physicists call “ultracold molecule loss.” A study published in Nature Physics reveals how it happens.
Being able to better see and control ultracold molecules would help scientists assemble a quantum machine piece by piece, says Jun Ye, a physicist at the University of Colorado Boulder, who was not involved in the study. But molecule heating throws a wrench in this process. A pioneer of ultracold molecule experiments, Ye observed early on that reactions—a matter of quantum chemistry instead of quantum physics—were somehow heating molecules up.
Yu Liu, a researcher at Harvard University and co-leader of the study, says the researchers had planned to investigate the reactions themselves. But, Liu says, “what we saw during the process turns out to give the answer to this question” of ultracold molecule loss. The scientists slowed down the chemical reactions between molecules enough to observe their behavior while in a state called “the complex,” which occurs in the middle of the reaction—before the molecules fully transform into the reaction's products. Because molecules interact with light through electrical forces, the team used lasers to keep them from flying away.
At room temperature the complex exists too briefly to observe. At low temperatures it sticks around longer, but the researchers found that this longevity has a cost: it gives the ultracold complex time to interact with the laser light keeping it in place. This interaction heats up the molecules, causing some to lose their ultracold status.
Knowing about this interaction, physicists can now avoid types of lasers that excite the complex. And the ability to see the light-complex interaction is itself promising. Nandini Mukherjee, a Stanford University chemist, who was not involved in the study, says probing the complex is a “long-sought goal in studying reaction mechanisms.”
Liu says the team wants to use laser light to fully control such reactions, and co-lead author Ming-Guang Hu (also at Harvard) adds that this process could eventually illuminate how the rules of quantum mechanics make ultracold molecular reactions different from those at room temperature. Having solved a mystery that has long troubled quantum physicists, they now want to explain a lot more about quantum chemistry.


scientificamerican--2020-12-01--Flood Risks to Low-Income Homes to Triple by 2050

The risk of coastal floods damaging or destroying low-income homes will triple over the next 30 years as rising tides and storm surges encroach on low-lying developed areas , according to new findings from the nonprofits Climate Central and National Housing Trust .
By 2050 , researchers say , more than 25,000 affordable housing units are expected to see coastal flooding at least once in a typical year — up from 7,700 just 20 years ago , with the largest number of at-risk housing units in three states : New Jersey , New York and Massachusetts .
Among the study @ @ @ @ @ @ @ half of New Jersey 's `` large stock of exposed affordable housing units could flood at least four times per year '' by 2050 .
Four New Jersey cities — Atlantic City , Camden , Penns Grove and Salem — are of particular concern , researchers found , as they are among the poorest in the country , with an average median household income of under $ 29,000 per year .
Pacific and Gulf Coast regions — including low-lying parts of Louisiana , Texas , California and Washington — will also see elevated @ @ @ @ @ @ @ units , the study found .
`` These impacts may increase maintenance costs , threaten public health , and cause profound disruptions to families already struggling to make ends meet , '' researchers Maya Buchanan and Ben Strauss of Climate Central wrote .
The problem is compounded by the fact that affordable housing is `` frequently in poor repair to begin with , [ and ] additional damage from flooding may be particularly challenging — and expensive — to remedy . ''
The study , published in Environmental Research Letters , is described @ @ @ @ @ @ @ flood risks facing affordable housing , and it adds to a growing body of research showing the disproportionate impacts climate change is having on low-income , disadvantaged and minority communities across the country .
`` To me the core point here is not the sheer numbers '' of homes facing elevated risk , Strauss said in an interview .
`` It 's the vulnerability of the people who are threatened .
They do n't have any easy recourse or remedy to deal with this problem . ''
Experts say the challenges of reducing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are complex .
In older cities , like New York and Boston , affordable housing can be concentrated in urban waterfront areas where residents are attached socially and economically to their homes and neighborhoods .
They have little means or incentive to move .
In other places , affordable housing — both privately and publicly owned — were purposefully constructed in floodplains because property was cheap and considered unsuitable for other types of development .
Rob Moore , a senior policy analyst at the Natural Resources Defense Council , said such factors leave @ @ @ @ @ @ @ renters — trapped in properties with rising disaster risk , plummeting real estate values , deteriorating environmental conditions and little or no investment by property owners who see no long-term future for their properties .
Yet government housing security programs tend to overlook renters , Moore added , `` adding to this problem of climate displacement for people who can ill afford to be out of their homes . ''
The most effective solutions are focused on adaptation and resilience , either by helping people move out of harm 's way or providing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
`` It 's the communities that recognize these problems now and are being proactive about it that are going to be the most successful , '' Moore said .
`` A lack of affordable housing does n't fix itself .
The same is true of sea-level rise .
If you wait for the problem to come in your front door , then you 've waited too long . ''
According to the Climate Central study , the cities with the largest number of affordable housing units at risk of flooding induced by @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ( 4,774 units ) , Atlantic City ( 3,167 units ) and Boston ( 3,042 units ) .
By percentage increase , the highest-risk cities are Norfolk , Va. , and Charleston , S.C. , each of which is expected to see a more than fivefold jump in at-risk affordable housing units by 2050 .
Reprinted from Climatewire with permission from E & E News .
E & E provides daily coverage of essential energy and environmental news at www.eenews.net .

The risk of coastal floods damaging or destroying low-income homes will triple over the next 30 years as rising tides and storm surges encroach on low-lying developed areas, according to new findings from the nonprofits Climate Central and National Housing Trust.
By 2050, researchers say, more than 25,000 affordable housing units are expected to see coastal flooding at least once in a typical year — up from 7,700 just 20 years ago, with the largest number of at-risk housing units in three states: New Jersey, New York and Massachusetts.
Among the study's more striking findings are that nearly half of New Jersey's "large stock of exposed affordable housing units could flood at least four times per year" by 2050. Four New Jersey cities — Atlantic City, Camden, Penns Grove and Salem — are of particular concern, researchers found, as they are among the poorest in the country, with an average median household income of under $29,000 per year.
Pacific and Gulf Coast regions — including low-lying parts of Louisiana, Texas, California and Washington — will also see elevated risk of coastal flooding among affordable housing units, the study found.
"These impacts may increase maintenance costs, threaten public health, and cause profound disruptions to families already struggling to make ends meet," researchers Maya Buchanan and Ben Strauss of Climate Central wrote. The problem is compounded by the fact that affordable housing is "frequently in poor repair to begin with, [and] additional damage from flooding may be particularly challenging — and expensive — to remedy."
The study, published in Environmental Research Letters, is described as the first nationwide assessment of coastal flood risks facing affordable housing, and it adds to a growing body of research showing the disproportionate impacts climate change is having on low-income, disadvantaged and minority communities across the country.
"To me the core point here is not the sheer numbers" of homes facing elevated risk, Strauss said in an interview. "It's the vulnerability of the people who are threatened. They don't have any easy recourse or remedy to deal with this problem."
Experts say the challenges of reducing climate risk for middle- and low-income residents are complex. In older cities, like New York and Boston, affordable housing can be concentrated in urban waterfront areas where residents are attached socially and economically to their homes and neighborhoods. They have little means or incentive to move. In other places, affordable housing — both privately and publicly owned — were purposefully constructed in floodplains because property was cheap and considered unsuitable for other types of development.
Rob Moore, a senior policy analyst at the Natural Resources Defense Council, said such factors leave low-income families — many of whom are renters — trapped in properties with rising disaster risk, plummeting real estate values, deteriorating environmental conditions and little or no investment by property owners who see no long-term future for their properties.
Yet government housing security programs tend to overlook renters, Moore added, "adding to this problem of climate displacement for people who can ill afford to be out of their homes." The most effective solutions are focused on adaptation and resilience, either by helping people move out of harm's way or providing public investment in elevating or flood-proofing homes.
"It's the communities that recognize these problems now and are being proactive about it that are going to be the most successful," Moore said. "A lack of affordable housing doesn't fix itself. The same is true of sea-level rise. If you wait for the problem to come in your front door, then you've waited too long."
According to the Climate Central study, the cities with the largest number of affordable housing units at risk of flooding induced by rising sea levels are New York City (4,774 units), Atlantic City (3,167 units) and Boston (3,042 units). By percentage increase, the highest-risk cities are Norfolk, Va., and Charleston, S.C., each of which is expected to see a more than fivefold jump in at-risk affordable housing units by 2050.
Reprinted from Climatewire with permission from E&E News. E&E provides daily coverage of essential energy and environmental news at www.eenews.net.


scientificamerican--2020-12-01--DeepMind's AI Makes Gigantic Leap in Solving Protein Structures

An artificial intelligence ( AI ) network developed by Google AI offshoot DeepMind has made a gargantuan leap in solving one of biology ’ s grandest challenges — determining a protein ’ s 3D shape from its amino-acid sequence .
DeepMind ’ s program , called AlphaFold , outperformed around 100 other teams in a biennial protein-structure prediction challenge called CASP , short for Critical Assessment of Structure Prediction .
The results were announced on 30 November , at the start of the conference — held virtually this year — that takes stock of the exercise .
“ This is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Moult , a computational biologist at the University of Maryland in College Park , who co-founded CASP in 1994 to improve computational methods for accurately predicting protein structures .
“ In some sense the problem is solved.
” The ability to accurately predict protein structures from their amino-acid sequence would be a huge boon to life sciences and medicine .
It would vastly accelerate efforts to understand the building blocks of cells and enable quicker and more advanced drug discovery .
AlphaFold came top of the table at the last CASP — in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ DeepMind participated .
But , this year , the outfit ’ s deep-learning network was head-and-shoulders above other teams and , say scientists , performed so mind-bogglingly well that it could herald a revolution in biology .
“ It ’ s a game changer , ” says Andrei Lupas , an evolutionary biologist at the Max Planck Institute for Developmental Biology in Tübingen , Germany , who assessed the performance of different teams in CASP .
AlphaFold has already helped him find the structure of a protein that has vexed his lab for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ will alter how he works and the questions he tackles .
“ This will change medicine .
It will change research .
It will change bioengineering .
It will change everything , ” Lupas adds .
In some cases , AlphaFold ’ s structure predictions were indistinguishable from those determined using ‘ gold standard ’ experimental methods such as X-ray crystallography and , in recent years , cryo-electron microscopy ( cryo-EM ) .
AlphaFold might not obviate the need for these laborious and expensive methods — yet — say scientists , but the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ living things in new ways .
Proteins are the building blocks of life , responsible for most of what happens inside cells .
How a protein works and what it does is determined by its 3D shape — ‘ structure is function ’ is an axiom of molecular biology .
Proteins tend to adopt their shape without help , guided only by the laws of physics .
For decades , laboratory experiments have been the main way to get good protein structures .
The first complete structures of proteins were determined , starting @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in which X-ray beams are fired at crystallized proteins and the diffracted light translated into a protein ’ s atomic coordinates .
X-ray crystallography has produced the lion ’ s share of protein structures .
But , over the past decade , cryo-EM has become the favoured tool of many structural-biology labs .
Scientists have long wondered how a protein ’ s constituent parts — a string of different amino acids — map out the many twists and folds of its eventual shape .
Early attempts to use computers to predict protein structures @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , say researchers .
Lofty claims for methods in published papers tended to disintegrate when other scientists applied them to other proteins .
Moult started CASP to bring more rigour to these efforts .
The event challenges teams to predict the structures of proteins that have been solved using experimental methods , but for which the structures have not been made public .
Moult credits the experiment — he doesn ’ t call it a competition — with vastly improving the field , by calling time on overhyped claims .
“ You ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , what works , and what you should walk away from , ” he says .
DeepMind ’ s 2018 performance at CASP13 startled many scientists in the field , which has long been the bastion of small academic groups .
But its approach was broadly similar to those of other teams that were applying AI , says Jinbo Xu , a computational biologist at the University of Chicago , Illinois .
The first iteration of AlphaFold applied the AI method known as deep learning to structural and genetic data to predict the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a protein .
In a second step that does not invoke AI , AlphaFold uses this information to come up with a ‘ consensus ’ model of what the protein should look like , says John Jumper at DeepMind , who is leading the project .
The team tried to build on that approach but eventually hit the wall .
So it changed tack , says Jumper , and developed an AI network that incorporated additional information about the physical and geometric constraints that determine how a protein folds .
They also set @ @ @ @ @ @ @ instead of predicting relationships between amino acids , the network predicts the final structure of a target protein sequence .
“ It ’ s a more complex system by quite a bit , ” Jumper says .
CASP takes place over several months .
Target proteins or portions of proteins called domains — about 100 in total — are released on a regular basis and teams have several weeks to submit their structure predictions .
A team of independent scientists then assesses the predictions using metrics that gauge how similar a predicted protein @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The assessors don ’ t know who is making a prediction .
AlphaFold ’ s predictions arrived under the name ‘ group 427 ’ , but the startling accuracy of many of its entries made them stand out , says Lupas .
“ I had guessed it was AlphaFold .
Most people had , ” he says .
Some predictions were better than others , but nearly two-thirds were comparable in quality to experimental structures .
In some cases , says Moult , it was not clear whether the discrepancy between AlphaFold ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a prediction error or an artefact of the experiment .
AlphaFold ’ s predictions were poor matches to experimental structures determined by a technique called nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy , but this could be down to how the raw data is converted into a model , says Moult .
The network also struggles to model individual structures in protein complexes , or groups , whereby interactions with other proteins distort their shapes .
Overall , teams predicted structures more accurately this year , compared with the last CASP , but much of the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ says Moult .
On protein targets considered to be moderately difficult , the best performances of other teams typically scored 75 on a 100-point scale of prediction accuracy , whereas AlphaFold scored around 90 on the same targets , says Moult .
About half of the teams mentioned ‘ deep learning ’ in the abstract summarizing their approach , Moult says , suggesting that AI is making a broad impact on the field .
Most of these were from academic teams , but Microsoft and the Chinese technology company Tencent also entered CASP14 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ at Columbia University in New York City and a CASP participant , is eager to dig into the details of AlphaFold ’ s performance at the contest , and learn more about how the system works when the DeepMind team presents its approach on 1 December .
It ’ s possible — but unlikely , he says — that an easier-than-usual crop of protein targets contributed to the performance .
AlQuraishi ’ s strong hunch is that AlphaFold will be transformational .
“ I think it ’ s fair to say this will @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
I suspect many will leave the field as the core problem has arguably been solved , ” he says .
“ It ’ s a breakthrough of the first order , certainly one of the most significant scientific results of my lifetime.
” An AlphaFold prediction helped to determine the structure of a bacterial protein that Lupas ’ s lab has been trying to crack for years .
Lupas ’ s team had previously collected raw X-ray diffraction data , but transforming these Rorschach-like patterns into a structure requires some information about @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for getting this information , as well as other prediction tools , had failed .
“ The model from group 427 gave us our structure in half an hour , after we had spent a decade trying everything , ” Lupas says .
Demis Hassabis , DeepMind ’ s co-founder and chief executive , says that the company plans to make AlphaFold useful so other scientists can employ it .
( It previously published enough details about the first version of AlphaFold for other scientists to replicate the approach . )
It can @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a predicted structure , which includes estimates on the reliability of different regions of the protein .
“ We ’ re just starting to understand what biologists would want , ” adds Hassabis , who sees drug discovery and protein design as potential applications .
In early 2020 , the company released predictions of the structures of a handful of SARS-CoV-2 proteins that hadn ’ t yet been determined experimentally .
DeepMind ’ s predictions for a protein called Orf3a ended up being very similar to one later determined through cryo-EM , says @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the University of California , Berkeley , whose team released the structure in June .
“ What they have been able to do is very impressive , ” he adds .
AlphaFold is unlikely to shutter labs , such as Brohawn ’ s , that use experimental methods to solve protein structures .
But it could mean that lower-quality and easier-to-collect experimental data would be all that ’ s needed to get a good structure .
Some applications , such as the evolutionary analysis of proteins , are set to flourish because the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ be reliably translated into structures .
“ This is going to empower a new generation of molecular biologists to ask more advanced questions , ” says Lupas .
“ It ’ s going to require more thinking and less pipetting.
” “ This is a problem that I was beginning to think would not get solved in my lifetime , ” says Janet Thornton , a structural biologist at the European Molecular Biology Laboratory-European Bioinformatics Institute in Hinxton , UK , and a past CASP assessor .
She hopes the approach could help @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of unsolved proteins in the human genome , and make sense of disease-causing gene variations that differ between people .
AlphaFold ’ s performance also marks a turning point for DeepMind .
The company is best known for wielding AI to master games such Go , but its long-term goal is to develop programs capable of achieving broad , human-like intelligence .
Tackling grand scientific challenges , such as protein-structure prediction , is one of the most important applications its AI can make , Hassabis says .
“ I do think it ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ve done , in terms of real-world impact.
” This article is reproduced with permission and was first published on November 30 2020 .

An artificial intelligence (AI) network developed by Google AI offshoot DeepMind has made a gargantuan leap in solving one of biology’s grandest challenges — determining a protein’s 3D shape from its amino-acid sequence.
DeepMind’s program, called AlphaFold, outperformed around 100 other teams in a biennial protein-structure prediction challenge called CASP, short for Critical Assessment of Structure Prediction. The results were announced on 30 November, at the start of the conference — held virtually this year — that takes stock of the exercise.
“This is a big deal,” says John Moult, a computational biologist at the University of Maryland in College Park, who co-founded CASP in 1994 to improve computational methods for accurately predicting protein structures. “In some sense the problem is solved.”
The ability to accurately predict protein structures from their amino-acid sequence would be a huge boon to life sciences and medicine. It would vastly accelerate efforts to understand the building blocks of cells and enable quicker and more advanced drug discovery.
AlphaFold came top of the table at the last CASP — in 2018, the first year that London-based DeepMind participated. But, this year, the outfit’s deep-learning network was head-and-shoulders above other teams and, say scientists, performed so mind-bogglingly well that it could herald a revolution in biology.
“It’s a game changer,” says Andrei Lupas, an evolutionary biologist at the Max Planck Institute for Developmental Biology in Tübingen, Germany, who assessed the performance of different teams in CASP. AlphaFold has already helped him find the structure of a protein that has vexed his lab for a decade, and he expects it will alter how he works and the questions he tackles. “This will change medicine. It will change research. It will change bioengineering. It will change everything,” Lupas adds.
In some cases, AlphaFold’s structure predictions were indistinguishable from those determined using ‘gold standard’ experimental methods such as X-ray crystallography and, in recent years, cryo-electron microscopy (cryo-EM). AlphaFold might not obviate the need for these laborious and expensive methods — yet — say scientists, but the AI will make it possible to study living things in new ways.
The structure problem
Proteins are the building blocks of life, responsible for most of what happens inside cells. How a protein works and what it does is determined by its 3D shape — ‘structure is function’ is an axiom of molecular biology. Proteins tend to adopt their shape without help, guided only by the laws of physics.
For decades, laboratory experiments have been the main way to get good protein structures. The first complete structures of proteins were determined, starting in the 1950s, using a technique in which X-ray beams are fired at crystallized proteins and the diffracted light translated into a protein’s atomic coordinates. X-ray crystallography has produced the lion’s share of protein structures. But, over the past decade, cryo-EM has become the favoured tool of many structural-biology labs.
Scientists have long wondered how a protein’s constituent parts — a string of different amino acids — map out the many twists and folds of its eventual shape. Early attempts to use computers to predict protein structures in the 1980s and 1990s performed poorly, say researchers. Lofty claims for methods in published papers tended to disintegrate when other scientists applied them to other proteins.
Moult started CASP to bring more rigour to these efforts. The event challenges teams to predict the structures of proteins that have been solved using experimental methods, but for which the structures have not been made public. Moult credits the experiment — he doesn’t call it a competition — with vastly improving the field, by calling time on overhyped claims. “You’re really finding out what looks promising, what works, and what you should walk away from,” he says.
DeepMind’s 2018 performance at CASP13 startled many scientists in the field, which has long been the bastion of small academic groups. But its approach was broadly similar to those of other teams that were applying AI, says Jinbo Xu, a computational biologist at the University of Chicago, Illinois.
The first iteration of AlphaFold applied the AI method known as deep learning to structural and genetic data to predict the distance between pairs of amino acids in a protein. In a second step that does not invoke AI, AlphaFold uses this information to come up with a ‘consensus’ model of what the protein should look like, says John Jumper at DeepMind, who is leading the project.
The team tried to build on that approach but eventually hit the wall. So it changed tack, says Jumper, and developed an AI network that incorporated additional information about the physical and geometric constraints that determine how a protein folds. They also set it a more difficult, task: instead of predicting relationships between amino acids, the network predicts the final structure of a target protein sequence. “It’s a more complex system by quite a bit,” Jumper says.
Startling accuracy
CASP takes place over several months. Target proteins or portions of proteins called domains — about 100 in total — are released on a regular basis and teams have several weeks to submit their structure predictions. A team of independent scientists then assesses the predictions using metrics that gauge how similar a predicted protein is to the experimentally determined structure. The assessors don’t know who is making a prediction.
AlphaFold’s predictions arrived under the name ‘group 427’, but the startling accuracy of many of its entries made them stand out, says Lupas. “I had guessed it was AlphaFold. Most people had,” he says.
Some predictions were better than others, but nearly two-thirds were comparable in quality to experimental structures. In some cases, says Moult, it was not clear whether the discrepancy between AlphaFold’s predictions and the experimental result was a prediction error or an artefact of the experiment.
AlphaFold’s predictions were poor matches to experimental structures determined by a technique called nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy, but this could be down to how the raw data is converted into a model, says Moult. The network also struggles to model individual structures in protein complexes, or groups, whereby interactions with other proteins distort their shapes.
Overall, teams predicted structures more accurately this year, compared with the last CASP, but much of the progress can be attributed to AlphaFold, says Moult. On protein targets considered to be moderately difficult, the best performances of other teams typically scored 75 on a 100-point scale of prediction accuracy, whereas AlphaFold scored around 90 on the same targets, says Moult.
About half of the teams mentioned ‘deep learning’ in the abstract summarizing their approach, Moult says, suggesting that AI is making a broad impact on the field. Most of these were from academic teams, but Microsoft and the Chinese technology company Tencent also entered CASP14.
Mohammed AlQuraishi, a computational biologist at Columbia University in New York City and a CASP participant, is eager to dig into the details of AlphaFold’s performance at the contest, and learn more about how the system works when the DeepMind team presents its approach on 1 December. It’s possible — but unlikely, he says — that an easier-than-usual crop of protein targets contributed to the performance. AlQuraishi’s strong hunch is that AlphaFold will be transformational.
“I think it’s fair to say this will be very disruptive to the protein-structure-prediction field. I suspect many will leave the field as the core problem has arguably been solved,” he says. “It’s a breakthrough of the first order, certainly one of the most significant scientific results of my lifetime.”
Faster structures
An AlphaFold prediction helped to determine the structure of a bacterial protein that Lupas’s lab has been trying to crack for years. Lupas’s team had previously collected raw X-ray diffraction data, but transforming these Rorschach-like patterns into a structure requires some information about the shape of the protein. Tricks for getting this information, as well as other prediction tools, had failed. “The model from group 427 gave us our structure in half an hour, after we had spent a decade trying everything,” Lupas says.
Demis Hassabis, DeepMind’s co-founder and chief executive, says that the company plans to make AlphaFold useful so other scientists can employ it. (It previously published enough details about the first version of AlphaFold for other scientists to replicate the approach.) It can take AlphaFold days to come up with a predicted structure, which includes estimates on the reliability of different regions of the protein. “We’re just starting to understand what biologists would want,” adds Hassabis, who sees drug discovery and protein design as potential applications.
In early 2020, the company released predictions of the structures of a handful of SARS-CoV-2 proteins that hadn’t yet been determined experimentally. DeepMind’s predictions for a protein called Orf3a ended up being very similar to one later determined through cryo-EM, says Stephen Brohawn, a molecular neurobiologist at the University of California, Berkeley, whose team released the structure in June. “What they have been able to do is very impressive,” he adds.
Real-world impact
AlphaFold is unlikely to shutter labs, such as Brohawn’s, that use experimental methods to solve protein structures. But it could mean that lower-quality and easier-to-collect experimental data would be all that’s needed to get a good structure. Some applications, such as the evolutionary analysis of proteins, are set to flourish because the tsunami of available genomic data might now be reliably translated into structures. “This is going to empower a new generation of molecular biologists to ask more advanced questions,” says Lupas. “It’s going to require more thinking and less pipetting.”
“This is a problem that I was beginning to think would not get solved in my lifetime,” says Janet Thornton, a structural biologist at the European Molecular Biology Laboratory-European Bioinformatics Institute in Hinxton, UK, and a past CASP assessor. She hopes the approach could help to illuminate the function of the thousands of unsolved proteins in the human genome, and make sense of disease-causing gene variations that differ between people.
AlphaFold’s performance also marks a turning point for DeepMind. The company is best known for wielding AI to master games such Go, but its long-term goal is to develop programs capable of achieving broad, human-like intelligence. Tackling grand scientific challenges, such as protein-structure prediction, is one of the most important applications its AI can make, Hassabis says. “I do think it’s the most significant thing we’ve done, in terms of real-world impact.”
This article is reproduced with permission and was first published on November 30 2020.


scientificamerican--2020-12-01--China's Chang'e 5 Lands on Moon to Collect Fresh Samples

China has apparently landed on again — and this time the country plans to bring home some souvenirs .
, China 's first-ever sample-return mission , successfully touched down today ( Dec. 1 ) , according to state media reports .
Details on the landing were not immediately available from the China National Space Administration , but the state-run CGTN news channel announced the landing success in a single-sentence statement .
Chang ' e 5 's landing was expected to occur at about 10:13 a.m. EST ( 1513 GMT ) near Mons Rümker , a mountain in the Oceanus Procellarum @ @ @ @ @ @ @ region of the moon .
Two pieces of the four-module , 18,100-lb .
( 8,200 kilograms ) Chang ' e 5 mission hit the gray dirt today — a stationary lander and an ascent vehicle .
If all goes according to plan , the lander will spend the next few days collecting about 4.4 lbs .
( 2 kg ) of lunar material , some of it dug from up to 6.5 feet ( 2 meters ) beneath the lunar surface .
The sample will then be transferred to the ascent vehicle , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ meet up with the other two Chang ' e 5 elements — an orbiter and an Earth-return craft .
The return vehicle will haul the moon dirt and rocks to our planet , with a touchdown planned in Inner Mongolia in mid-December .
That will be a landmark event ; pristine lunar samples have not been delivered to Earth since 1976 , when the Soviet Union 's Luna 24 mission came home with about 6 ounces ( 170 grams ) of material .
Chang ' e 5 just , so it 's packing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ short weeks .
The compressed timeline is driven largely by the mission 's energy needs : The Chang ' e 5 lander is solar powered , so it must get all of its work done in two Earth weeks at most , before the sun sets at Mons Rümker .
( One lunar day lasts about 29 Earth days , so most moon sites receive two weeks of continuous sunlight followed by two weeks of darkness . )
Chang ' e 5 is the latest mission in the of robotic lunar exploration , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in Chinese mythology .
The Chang ' e 1 and Chang ' e 2 orbiters launched in 2007 and 2010 , respectively , and Chang ' e 3 put a lander-rover duo down on the moon 's near side in December 2013 .
The Chang ' e 5 T1 mission sent a prototype return capsule around the moon and back to Earth in October 2014 to help prepare for Chang ' e 5 .
And in January 2019 , the Chang ' e 4 lander-rover duo pulled off the first-ever soft touchdown on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ far side .
Both Chang ' e 4 robots remain operational today , as does the Chang ' e 3 lander .
Though Chang ' e 5 's operational life will be short , the mission is designed to have a long-lasting impact .
After all , scientists are still studying the 842 lbs .
( 382 kg ) of lunar material brought to Earth by NASA 's Apollo missions from 1969 to 1972 .
Some of the Apollo material came from Oceanus Procellarum , a huge volcanic plain that explored in late @ @ @ @ @ @ @ just 1.2 billion years ago , whereas all of the samples collected by the Apollo astronauts are more than 3 billion years old .
Chang ' e 5 therefore `` will help scientists understand what was happening late in the moon 's history , as well as how Earth and the solar system evolved , '' the nonprofit Planetary Society wrote in its description of the mission .
Chang ' e 5 is n't the only sample-return game in town .
Japan 's is scheduled to deliver pieces of the asteroid Ryugu to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 's OSIRIS-REx probe in late October .
The Bennu samples are scheduled to come home in September 2023 .
Copyright 2020 Space.com , a Future company .
All rights reserved .
This material may not be published , broadcast , rewritten or redistributed .

China has apparently landed on the moon again — and this time the country plans to bring home some souvenirs.
Chang'e 5 , China's first-ever sample-return mission, successfully touched down today (Dec. 1), according to state media reports. Details on the landing were not immediately available from the China National Space Administration, but the state-run CGTN news channel announced the landing success in a single-sentence statement.
Chang'e 5's landing was expected to occur at about 10:13 a.m. EST (1513 GMT) near Mons Rümker, a mountain in the Oceanus Procellarum ("Ocean of Storms") region of the moon.
Two pieces of the four-module, 18,100-lb. (8,200 kilograms) Chang'e 5 mission hit the gray dirt today — a stationary lander and an ascent vehicle. If all goes according to plan, the lander will spend the next few days collecting about 4.4 lbs. (2 kg) of lunar material, some of it dug from up to 6.5 feet (2 meters) beneath the lunar surface.
The sample will then be transferred to the ascent vehicle, which will launch to lunar orbit and meet up with the other two Chang'e 5 elements — an orbiter and an Earth-return craft. The return vehicle will haul the moon dirt and rocks to our planet, with a touchdown planned in Inner Mongolia in mid-December.
That will be a landmark event; pristine lunar samples have not been delivered to Earth since 1976, when the Soviet Union's Luna 24 mission came home with about 6 ounces (170 grams) of material.
Chang'e 5 just launched on Nov. 23 , so it's packing a lot of action into a few short weeks. The compressed timeline is driven largely by the mission's energy needs: The Chang'e 5 lander is solar powered, so it must get all of its work done in two Earth weeks at most, before the sun sets at Mons Rümker. (One lunar day lasts about 29 Earth days, so most moon sites receive two weeks of continuous sunlight followed by two weeks of darkness.)
Chang'e 5 is the latest mission in the Chang'e program of robotic lunar exploration, which is named after a moon goddess in Chinese mythology. The Chang'e 1 and Chang'e 2 orbiters launched in 2007 and 2010, respectively, and Chang'e 3 put a lander-rover duo down on the moon's near side in December 2013.
The Chang'e 5 T1 mission sent a prototype return capsule around the moon and back to Earth in October 2014 to help prepare for Chang'e 5. And in January 2019, the Chang'e 4 lander-rover duo pulled off the first-ever soft touchdown on the moon's mysterious, largely unexplored far side. Both Chang'e 4 robots remain operational today, as does the Chang'e 3 lander.
Though Chang'e 5's operational life will be short, the mission is designed to have a long-lasting impact. After all, scientists are still studying the 842 lbs. (382 kg) of lunar material brought to Earth by NASA's Apollo missions from 1969 to 1972.
Some of the Apollo material came from Oceanus Procellarum, a huge volcanic plain that Apollo 12 explored in late 1969. But Mons Rümker rocks formed just 1.2 billion years ago, whereas all of the samples collected by the Apollo astronauts are more than 3 billion years old.
Chang'e 5 therefore "will help scientists understand what was happening late in the moon's history, as well as how Earth and the solar system evolved," the nonprofit Planetary Society wrote in its description of the mission .
Chang'e 5 isn't the only sample-return game in town. Japan's Hayabusa2 mission is scheduled to deliver pieces of the asteroid Ryugu to Earth on Dec. 5, and NASA's OSIRIS-REx probe collected samples of the space rock Bennu in late October. The Bennu samples are scheduled to come home in September 2023.
Copyright 2020 Space.com, a Future company. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.