scientificamerican--2020-09-15--How to Be a Mystical Skeptic

How to Be a Mystical Skeptic

I interviewed psychologist Susan Blackmore 20 years ago while doing research for my book Rational Mysticism .
Here , lightly edited , is my description of her : “ Her hair was dyed orange , red , and yellow , dark-rooted , cut short as a boy ’ s , with sideburns plunging like daggers past each multi-ringed ear .
Words spewed from her pell-mell , accompanied by equally vigorous hand signals and facial expressions .
She was keen on onomatopoeic sound effects : Ahhhhh ( to express her pleasure at finding other smart people when she entered Oxford ) @ @ @ @ @ @ @ DUN ( the galloping noise she heard as she sped down a tree-lined tunnel in her first out-of-body experience ) ; Zzzzzzt ( the sound of reality dissolving after her second toke of the psychedelic dimethyltryptamine ) .
We were talking in the dining room of the inn where she was staying , and twice we had to move to a quieter spot when employees or patrons of the inn started talking near us .
One side effect of her spiritual practice , she explained , is that she has a hard time @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is one of the bad effects of practicing mindfulness .
I 'm so aware of everything all the time.
’ ” Blackmore began her career as a parapsychologist , intent on finding evidence for astral projection and extrasensory perception .
Her investigations transformed her into a materialist and Darwinian ( one of her best-known books describes humans as “ meme machines ” ) who doesn ’ t believe in ESP , God or free will .
And yet she is a mystic , too , who explores consciousness via meditation and psychedelics .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ the trick of being both a hard-nosed skeptic and an open-minded adventurer .
What more can one ask of a mind scientist ?
Curious about how her thinking has evolved in our mind-boggling era , I e-mailed her a few questions .
An edited transcript of the interview follows .
Horgan : Do you ever wish that you were less skeptical ?
Blackmore : No , absolutely not .
If by “ skeptical ” you mean curious , questioning , asking for evidence , and being willing to shift one ’ s opinions @ @ @ @ @ @ @ aspire to be .
But if by “ skeptical ” you mean being a close-minded , lazy disbeliever who isn ’ t even interested in finding out , then I know how easy it is to slide into and I try to avoid it .
Horgan : My skepticism toward extrasensory perception and other parapsychological phenomena sometimes wobbles when I meet believers like Rupert Sheldrake , Freeman Dyson or Stuart Kauffman .
Does that ever happen to you ?
Blackmore : No .
It is precisely with people like this that I try @ @ @ @ @ @ @ he saying ?
Does it make sense ?
Do I need to find out more ?
In the case of Sheldrake , I looked into his work thoroughly a long time ago , including collecting data for one of his experiments .
I became disillusioned by that early work and not convinced of his claims , but I have not studied his later work in the detail I would need to come to a firm conclusion .
Whenever I meet him , we enjoy wide-ranging , friendly discussions and continue to disagree .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s very different .
They challenge fundamental ideas about the universe , not by making psychic claims which take us nowhere , but by exploring deep ideas about matter , information , the origins of life , order and complexity , and ( although limited by my poor maths and physics ) I love their work .
I too speculate endlessly about the nature of the universe , and people like these two are inspiring .
Horgan : What ’ s your take on the recent popularity of panpsychism and other challenges @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is hopeless because as soon as it confronts the problem of consciousness it becomes dualist .
Dualism is hopeless because it can not explain the close relationship between matter and experience .
When neuroscientists go looking for the “ neural correlates of consciousness , ” they treat consciousness as though it is something created by or arising from the brain and become mired in the “ hard problem.
” Defined in terms of how subjective experience arises from objective brain activity , it ’ s the wrong problem .
It ’ s insoluble @ @ @ @ @ @ @ At the other extreme are believers in “ mind beyond the body , ” “ endless consciousness ” and “ consciousness first.
” These are doomed in the opposite way ; they can not explain the brain/consciousness relationship either , nor can they explain how we seem to have a shared material world .
The problem is deep and interesting .
Materialism can not account for consciousness ; idealism can not account for matter .
We need a nondual understanding of the world and , as yet , we do not have that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , help but has certainly not proved itself yet .
For me , traditional panpsychism ( e.g.
, every atom , molecule , stone or house has experience ) makes no sense .
Philip Goff ’ s interesting version does not seem to work either .
Where I find panpsychism attractive is an idea I have often played with , and even wrote about in a conference paper back in the 1980s !
In consciousness studies , we ask , “ What is it like to be a bat ?
” I say @ @ @ @ @ @ @ There is nothing it is like to be the actual physical bat—there is only what it is like to be the bat ’ s model of itself as a bat .
“ What it ’ s like ” for bats ( or any creature ) is whatever those representations say it ’ s like .
Simple !
?
As for human animals , we build even more complex representations and at multiple levels , through sensory systems , motor systems , memory and imagination .
Lording over them all is our false sense @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a central , controlling , experiencing self which does not really exist—so that ’ s what it ’ s like to be “ me.
” Yet underlying that self-model are multiple other representations .
My kind of panpsychism implies that at all these levels from the simplest ephemeral constructions to that great illusory self-model , there is something it is like to be them—whatever those representations say it ’ s like .
I play a lot with such ideas , both in very disciplined and structured thinking , and in my daily meditation @ @ @ @ @ @ @ not convinced that this , or any other version of panpsychism , yet solves the great mystery of our minds !
Horgan : Daniel Dennett ’ s claim that consciousness is an “ illusion ” makes no sense to me .
What am I missing ?
Blackmore : Ha ha .
You are indeed missing a lot !
I make that claim too , as do many people who study their own minds with deep perplexity .
You are missing taking a good hard look at your own assumptions about consciousness—what you take @ @ @ @ @ @ @ question because it seems so obvious .
You may be as deluded as most people are , but of course I do not know what you are assuming .
You might , for example , imagine that you are some kind of inner self that has consciousness and free will , that “ you ” can direct your consciousness to some things and not others , that some processes in your head are conscious ones and others are unconscious , that you need consciousness to do some things and not others , that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that it must have evolved for a purpose .
There are excellent reasons for rejecting every one of these very natural assumptions .
In other words , consciousness , as normally imagined , is an illusion .
What does “ illusion ” mean ?
Take a dictionary ( as I resorted to when people started telling me that I didn ’ t believe in consciousness ) .
An illusion is something that is not what it seems to be .
And that fits our problem precisely .
My claim is that we can @ @ @ @ @ @ @ theory of consciousness until we throw out all these false assumptions and start again .
Horgan : I suspect we will never find a single , completely satisfying solution to the mind-body problem .
What do you think ?
Blackmore : The solution seems to be right there in certain meditative or psychedelic states .
Nonduality is obvious , everything is clearly one , experience needs no experiencer—no duality .
Yet , for me at least , this clarity of insight disappears on returning to ordinary states and doesn ’ t leave me @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , completely satisfying solution to dualism.
” Will it ever ?
I like this question—would an enlightened person who studied neuroscience and philosophy get that complete solution ?
Would a neuroscientist/philosopher who had such deep insight get it ?
What do you think ?
Horgan : I think the problem is unsolvable , even for a fully enlightened person with multiple Ph.D.s .
Next question : The field of memetics , which Richard Dawkins founded and to which you have contributed , has been sharply criticized .
Care to defend it ?
Blackmore @ @ @ @ @ @ @ just explain it because so many people misunderstand it , or are afraid of it , or both .
When you fully grasp the idea , you can judge for yourself whether it ’ s worth defending .
It ’ s simple—if a bit scary .
A replicator is information that undergoes the evolutionary algorithm .
That means it is copied , varied and selected , and this mindless , repetitive process creates novel design .
Genes are considered the first replicator on Earth ; they are selfish replicators , evolving for their @ @ @ @ @ @ @ information—anything we copy around in culture—is like that too .
So , he proposed that memes are a second replicator .
In The Meme Machine , I explored how memes compete to use us as their copying machinery , and the winning memes are not always the ones that benefit us .
Think of the explosion of internet memes , the flourishing of fake news , the awfulness of religions that trap people in lies , or the contagion of suicide and anorexia .
These memes all use us for their propagation while @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , a recent study ( see Further Reading ) found that the European witch persecutions benefited no one and nothing but the witch trials themselves .
This is the key point—memetics is useful and important if it is true that selfish ideas propagate for their own benefit and not for us , the meme machines .
Horgan : I can ’ t live without free will , but you ’ ve said that rejecting it gives you a sense of freedom .
What are you seeing that I 'm not ?
Blackmore : @ @ @ @ @ @ @ lifetime working to give up the sense of having free will , and I have .
You could live without it if you really wanted to—it just takes a lot of letting go , and I ’ m still working on it .
I long ago concluded that everything a human being does is caused by underlying processes we can not see , and that the self that seems to be in charge is not .
So , I had to find out how to live with that .
The new freedom is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in the midst of enjoying a long back and forth argument with Dan Dennett over this issue .
I hugely admire his work on consciousness , and the illusions he exposed , but on this we differ fundamentally .
To be consistent , I say he should declare free will to be part of the illusions of self and consciousness , but he disagrees .
Horgan : Our existence often seems so improbable to me , so weird , that I have a hard time believing it is the result of chance .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ Blackmore : No , I don ’ t .
Not at all .
Why would I try ?
And why would you even ask such question unless it ’ s just to provoke me ?
Of course , our amazing existence is not the result of chance—at least not just chance .
That would make you like one of those Christians who argue that because a wind blowing through a scrapyard could not construct a Boeing 747 , there must be a God who created us .
No .
Like every other living @ @ @ @ @ @ @ natural selection requires three processes to create design without a designer : information must be copied , the copies must vary , and then only some of them survive to be copied again .
Chance is just one source of the necessary variation .
Chance on its own obviously can not produce our improbable existence ; natural selection can and did .
We are not made in God ’ s image .
Horgan : I have a love-hate relationship with Buddhism .
How would you describe your relationship ?
Blackmore : Love the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ve worked with since 1981 ; hate the way Buddhism as a religion is mired in doctrine , theory , rules , vows and ceremony .
My special hate ( I ’ m using that word only because you did ! )
is this : the Buddha taught that the self is illusory ( not the continuing entity it seems to be ) and yet many branches of Buddhism adopt the ever-popular belief in personal reincarnation .
Bonkers !
This is one of many reasons why , despite 40 years of Zen practice @ @ @ @ @ @ @ will not take those vows .
Horgan : What has meditation done for you ?
Or not done ?
Blackmore : Oh , ha ha .
How can I know ?
Maybe I would be just the same as I am now , merely through aging .
There ’ s no control group .
But I can say what it seems to have done .
I think I am happier , less caught up in stupid thoughts and worries , more flexible about life and ( maybe and most importantly ) less troublesome @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is that I can easily sit completely still for an hour or more , observing what goes on .
I know my own messy mind better , and I can enter specific states of consciousness such as “ silent illumination ” or the jhanas , through decades of training attention .
That ’ s all meditation really is—training attention .
Horgan : Have psychedelics given you any enduring insights into the nature of existence ?
Blackmore : Yes .
The emptiness of self , the underlying nonduality or nonseparation , the wild and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , the ready availability of mystical experience through chemistry , and the vacuity of the “ consciousness beyond death ” theories when psychedelics can provide all this through effects on a living brain .
Horgan : Do you believe in the state of permanent mystical awareness called enlightenment ?
Have you ever met someone who seems to be enlightened ?
Blackmore : 1 .
No .
As far as I have learnt , enlightenment is not a “ state of permanent mystical awareness ” ; it ’ s not a state at all @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , or seeing through , or letting go of , the delusions of self and agency , and the acceptance of impermanence , suffering and nonself .
It sounds like not being human at all , but I don ’ t think it is .
2 .
Yes , some Zen teachers .
In this tradition the word “ enlightenment ” means many things ; there are enlightenment experiences that happen along the way , and there are degrees of enlightenment as well as being an “ enlightened one ” or “ fully @ @ @ @ @ @ @ were really “ fully enlightened , ” I have no idea , and they certainly would not say so , nor would others about them .
So , I am not going to say any more .
Horgan : For a serious scholar , you seem to have lots of fun .
Is my view of you accurate , and if so , how do you pull it off ?
Blackmore : Hmmmm .
I ’ ve never been a fun-seeker—though I ’ m happy if I appear to be having lots of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 18 my cousin saying , “ Let ’ s go and have some fun !
” and my replying , “ I don ’ t like having fun , ” and then feeling really embarrassed at what I ’ d said .
But it ’ s true .
Excitement yes , risk-taking yes , but fun—not sure .
As a student I would spend evenings analyzing stats for my psychic experiments rather than go to parties or see friends .
I still don ’ t like going out—if that ’ s supposed to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ fun playing in a samba band , but my main pleasures in life are rather calmer—writing and research , exploring my own mind through drugs , meditation or just thinking , gardening and playing with my grandchildren—now that is fun !
Blackmore : No idea .
I fear human nature makes us incapable of utopia .
We are good at dystopias though .
As a woman , living in an Islamic state under sharia law is the very worst I know of .
Let us not ever descend to such depths .
Postscript @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the headline `` How to Be a Mystical Materialist , '' but Blackmore says that she is NOT a materialist for reasons that she explains in the Q & A .
Blackmore , S. ( 2013 ) , “ Living without free will.
” In Exploring the Illusion of Free Will and Moral Responsibility .
Ed G. Caruso , Lexington Books , 161-175


scientificamerican--2020-09-18--Jaws: Classic Film, Crummy Science

Jaws: Classic Film, Crummy Science

The blockbuster film Jaws has been a perennial favorite here on Martha ’ s Vineyard since its release 45 years ago .
The epic 1975 feature film , shot on the Vineyard in iconic places like the picturesque fishing village of Menemsha , pits a fictional seaside tourist town called Amity against a villainous great white shark whose fearsome triangular teeth—300 of them—bite and kill unsuspecting townspeople and summer visitors enjoying the local Atlantic Ocean waters .
Jaws played recently at a COVID-safe drive-in theater here , allowing viewers to scream in the privacy of their own cars .
The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ psyche of audiences—and ocean swimmers—creating a larger-than-life fictional movie monster that evoked perpetual fear of the great white shark .
However , the Jaws phenomenon also triggered admiration and awe of these magnificent marine animals in the wild , as well as a push for more scientific field research into their natural history .
Studies in recent decades have sought to demystify the demon shark in Jaws and to create a more nuanced view of this apex predator atop the marine food chain : white sharks eat seals , sea lions , dolphins @ @ @ @ @ @ @ humans are not part of their normal diet .
Ironically , the human threat to sharks is far greater than the shark threat to humans .
Each year , fishermen kill , directly or indirectly , an estimated 100 million sharks of all kinds worldwide , the majority for shark fin soup or meat .
Many deaths also occur after white sharks are snagged in commercial fishing gear .
Jaws author Peter Benchley later regretted the man-eating portrayal of the fictional white shark in his best-selling book and the more dramatic , bloodthirsty @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
With his wife Wendy , he became an avid conservationist , working with environmental groups and research scientists on behalf of oceans and sharks everywhere until his untimely death in 2006 .
“ When Jaws came out , it was a scary movie that terrified a lot of people , ” said Wendy Benchley .
`` Peter would not have written it the way he did once he knew more about sharks , ” she said .
“ He wrote it with the knowledge he had at the time .
It was @ @ @ @ @ @ @ treatise.
” “ The book and film exaggerated the white shark ’ s behavior .
The white shark in the film was far larger than normal—about 25 feet—while the largest animals in the wild are typically 15 to 18 feet , ” says Greg Skomal , a fisheries biologist and well-known shark expert with the Massachusetts Division of Marine Fisheries .
“ They had it satisfying hunger by consuming humans .
They don ’ t do that .
White sharks did not evolve with humans as prey or food , ” he said @ @ @ @ @ @ @ vindictive , attacking the boat and going after the captain .
White sharks certainly don ’ t do that .
It became this epic battle between the shark and the people chasing after it.
” When Jaws came out , “ relatively little was known about the white shark .
We know a lot more now about white shark ecology , distribution and natural history , ” says Skomal .
Studies of the white shark species , Carcharodon carcharias , show its critical role in keeping the marine ecosystem in balance , exerting @ @ @ @ @ @ @ help hold other ocean species in check .
In the Atlantic Ocean waters off New England , shark attacks on humans are “ incredibly rare events , ” says Skomal , especially when compared to other water dangers , like riptides and boating accidents .
“ Many more people drown than are attacked by sharks , ” he said .
Nonetheless , when attacks do occur , they draw incredible publicity .
In July , a wetsuit-wearing 63-year-old woman swimming in the chilly Gulf of Maine waters was killed by a great white @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s history .
In September 2018 , a 26-year-old man boogie boarding off Massachusetts ’ Cape Cod was killed by a shark , the first shark attack fatality in the state since 1936 .
Worldwide , there were 105 confirmed shark attacks on humans in 2019 , including five deaths , according to the International Shark Attack File , based at the Florida Museum of Natural History .
It documented 64 unprovoked attacks on humans worldwide , significantly lower than the five-year average of 82 incidents annually .
The U.S. leads the world @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in 2019 .
Of those , Florida had the most , with 21 , followed by Hawaii with nine .
In New England , the only 2019 fatality occurred in Rhode Island .
The Shark Attack File also documented 41 provoked attacks globally in 2019 in which humans “ initiated interaction with a white shark in some way.
” Although shark attacks are few in number and relatively stable year over year , white sharks in Atlantic coastal waters appear to have increased in number .
“ From the best available data , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Eastern seaboard of the U.S. are rebounding after years of heavy exploitation , ” said Skomal .
Populations went down in the 1970s and 1980s with the expansion of commercial and recreational fishing that targeted big fish .
But federal conservation regulations , starting in the 1990 ’ s , provided strong protections for white sharks from fishing .
White sharks feed on seals , which have been protected since 1972 by the federal Marine Mammal Protection Act .
Seal populations have also grown in number in Atlantic coastal waters , with higher @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the Gulf of Maine in summer and fall months .
“ That provides a forage base that has drawn white sharks closer to shore , ” said Skomal .
One sign of sharks in the vicinity is the presence of seals they may be following for food .
“ Don ’ t swim where there is a high density of seals , ” says Skomal .
He advises swimmers to stay in shallower water , avoid turgid waters , or swimming when it is dark or getting dark .
Some scientists say the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ dusk , he said .
The Massachusetts Division of Marine Fisheries , working with the Atlantic White Shark Conservancy , has tagged more than 220 white sharks with acoustic or satellite-based tracking devices .
Acoustic tagging has led recently to novel protection for Cape Cod beachgoers .
At selected beaches , lifeguards armed with acoustic receivers can track in real time the proximity of tagged white sharks nearby , says Skomal , leading to temporary beach closures to swimming as needed .
To promote safety and awareness of white sharks , the conservancy @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , also has a popular app called Sharktivity , developed with state and local officials , that provides alerts about sightings of white sharks in the Cape Cod area .
Using satellite-based tagging technology to study seasonal migration patterns of white sharks in the western Atlantic , Skomal and colleagues have shown the animals are more widely distributed than previously thought .
“ They were thought to be largely coastal in nature .
But we ’ ve discovered them in the open ocean diving to depths as deep as 3,000 feet , ” @ @ @ @ @ @ @ early fall , white sharks are found in coastal waters as far north as Newfoundland , moving south for the late fall , winter and spring months to coastal waters off the southeastern U.S. , from North Carolina to the Gulf of Mexico .
Working with researchers from the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution and Massachusetts Institute of Technology , Skomal found that during this time some white sharks also head further out into deeper waters of the open Atlantic , going as far east as the Azores .
In a 2017 paper in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ scientists noted that “ our findings extend the known essential habitat for the white shark in the North Atlantic beyond existing protection , with implications for future conservation.
” “ We now have relatively robust white shark populations on both coasts ” of the U.S. and in “ hot spots ” around the world , said marine conservation biologist Austin Gallagher , chief executive and lead scientist at Beneath the Waves , a nonprofit research and conservation organization .
“ We need to find ways of coexisting with them , ” he said @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the natural history of the white shark and how best to avoid encounters with it .
According to the International Shark Attack File , about half of shark attacks on humans are related to surfing or board sports , with one fourth involving swimmers or waders .
Its Web page provides additional safety advice for reducing the risk of shark bites .
Jaws was an important motivator for many people to go into marine science .
“ Jaws inspired me to do what I ’ m doing today .
I thought the Jaws @ @ @ @ @ @ @ job .
I was always fascinated by sharks and the ocean , ” says Skomal .
“ It ’ s an entertaining film to this day.
” Gallagher , who was not alive when Jaws premiered in 1975 , saw the film when he was about eight years old .
“ Jaws is one of my favorite movies , ” he says .
“ I look back on it as a motivating factor for pursuing a career as a scientist .
A lot of us saw ourselves as Matt Hooper.
” “ People @ @ @ @ @ @ @ with sharks , ” said Wendy Benchley , who continues to promote ocean conservation through speaking , writing and serving on the boards of nonprofits like Beneath the Waves and WildAid .
She ’ s beginning to think about special events celebrating the 50th anniversary of Jaws as a way to increase public awareness of marine environmental issues , from plastic pollution to overfishing .
“ People need to be more aware that the ocean is in deep trouble , ” she said .
As for Jaws , the beautifully written thriller and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s audiences .
It ’ s worth rereading or seeing it again—I just did—and appreciating it as a popular work of fiction that magnifies the power of the great white shark .
The suspenseful opening scenes of the movie—with that pounding , fear-inducing music—feature a young woman hopping into the ocean water for a nude midnight swim and , yes , right into the jaws of a menacing great white shark .
Okay .
You can scream now .
Or feel a little squeamish when her bloody remains are found washed up @ @ @ @ @ @ @ never read or seen Jaws , where have you been ?
And what are you waiting for ?
It ’ s time for a shot of adrenaline .
But see the film ’ s man-eating shark monster for what it is : a fictional characterization in a seaside scary movie , not a portrait of the great white shark ’ s behavior in nature .

The blockbuster film Jaws has been a perennial favorite here on Martha’s Vineyard since its release 45 years ago. The epic 1975 feature film, shot on the Vineyard in iconic places like the picturesque fishing village of Menemsha, pits a fictional seaside tourist town called Amity against a villainous great white shark whose fearsome triangular teeth—300 of them—bite and kill unsuspecting townspeople and summer visitors enjoying the local Atlantic Ocean waters. Jaws played recently at a COVID-safe drive-in theater here, allowing viewers to scream in the privacy of their own cars.
The movie took a deep dive into the psyche of audiences—and ocean swimmers—creating a larger-than-life fictional movie monster that evoked perpetual fear of the great white shark. However, the Jaws phenomenon also triggered admiration and awe of these magnificent marine animals in the wild, as well as a push for more scientific field research into their natural history.
Studies in recent decades have sought to demystify the demon shark in Jaws and to create a more nuanced view of this apex predator atop the marine food chain: white sharks eat seals, sea lions, dolphins, porpoises and many types of fish—but humans are not part of their normal diet. Ironically, the human threat to sharks is far greater than the shark threat to humans. Each year, fishermen kill, directly or indirectly, an estimated 100 million sharks of all kinds worldwide, the majority for shark fin soup or meat. Many deaths also occur after white sharks are snagged in commercial fishing gear.
Jaws author Peter Benchley later regretted the man-eating portrayal of the fictional white shark in his best-selling book and the more dramatic, bloodthirsty depiction in the Oscar-winning Steven Spielberg film. With his wife Wendy, he became an avid conservationist, working with environmental groups and research scientists on behalf of oceans and sharks everywhere until his untimely death in 2006.
“When Jaws came out, it was a scary movie that terrified a lot of people,” said Wendy Benchley. "Peter would not have written it the way he did once he knew more about sharks,” she said. “He wrote it with the knowledge he had at the time. It was a first novel, not a scientific treatise.”
“The book and film exaggerated the white shark’s behavior. The white shark in the film was far larger than normal—about 25 feet—while the largest animals in the wild are typically 15 to 18 feet,” says Greg Skomal, a fisheries biologist and well-known shark expert with the Massachusetts Division of Marine Fisheries. “They had it satisfying hunger by consuming humans. They don’t do that. White sharks did not evolve with humans as prey or food,” he said. “The Jaws shark even seemed vindictive, attacking the boat and going after the captain. White sharks certainly don’t do that. It became this epic battle between the shark and the people chasing after it.”
When Jaws came out, “relatively little was known about the white shark. We know a lot more now about white shark ecology, distribution and natural history,” says Skomal. Studies of the white shark species, Carcharodon carcharias, show its critical role in keeping the marine ecosystem in balance, exerting top-down forces on the food web that help hold other ocean species in check.
In the Atlantic Ocean waters off New England, shark attacks on humans are “incredibly rare events,” says Skomal, especially when compared to other water dangers, like riptides and boating accidents. “Many more people drown than are attacked by sharks,” he said.
Nonetheless, when attacks do occur, they draw incredible publicity. In July, a wetsuit-wearing 63-year-old woman swimming in the chilly Gulf of Maine waters was killed by a great white shark—the first such death in Maine’s history. In September 2018, a 26-year-old man boogie boarding off Massachusetts’ Cape Cod was killed by a shark, the first shark attack fatality in the state since 1936.
Worldwide, there were 105 confirmed shark attacks on humans in 2019, including five deaths, according to the International Shark Attack File, based at the Florida Museum of Natural History. It documented 64 unprovoked attacks on humans worldwide, significantly lower than the five-year average of 82 incidents annually. The U.S. leads the world in unprovoked shark attacks, with 41 in 2019. Of those, Florida had the most, with 21, followed by Hawaii with nine. In New England, the only 2019 fatality occurred in Rhode Island. The Shark Attack File also documented 41 provoked attacks globally in 2019 in which humans “initiated interaction with a white shark in some way.”
Although shark attacks are few in number and relatively stable year over year, white sharks in Atlantic coastal waters appear to have increased in number. “From the best available data, it appears that white sharks on the Eastern seaboard of the U.S. are rebounding after years of heavy exploitation,” said Skomal. Populations went down in the 1970s and 1980s with the expansion of commercial and recreational fishing that targeted big fish. But federal conservation regulations, starting in the 1990’s, provided strong protections for white sharks from fishing.
White sharks feed on seals, which have been protected since 1972 by the federal Marine Mammal Protection Act. Seal populations have also grown in number in Atlantic coastal waters, with higher densities in Massachusetts off Cape Cod and the Gulf of Maine in summer and fall months. “That provides a forage base that has drawn white sharks closer to shore,” said Skomal.
One sign of sharks in the vicinity is the presence of seals they may be following for food.
“Don’t swim where there is a high density of seals,” says Skomal. He advises swimmers to stay in shallower water, avoid turgid waters, or swimming when it is dark or getting dark. Some scientists say the sharks are more active at dawn or dusk, he said.
The Massachusetts Division of Marine Fisheries, working with the Atlantic White Shark Conservancy, has tagged more than 220 white sharks with acoustic or satellite-based tracking devices. Acoustic tagging has led recently to novel protection for Cape Cod beachgoers. At selected beaches, lifeguards armed with acoustic receivers can track in real time the proximity of tagged white sharks nearby, says Skomal, leading to temporary beach closures to swimming as needed. To promote safety and awareness of white sharks, the conservancy, which is based in Cape Cod, also has a popular app called Sharktivity, developed with state and local officials, that provides alerts about sightings of white sharks in the Cape Cod area.
Using satellite-based tagging technology to study seasonal migration patterns of white sharks in the western Atlantic, Skomal and colleagues have shown the animals are more widely distributed than previously thought. “They were thought to be largely coastal in nature. But we’ve discovered them in the open ocean diving to depths as deep as 3,000 feet,” says Skomal.
In the summer and early fall, white sharks are found in coastal waters as far north as Newfoundland, moving south for the late fall, winter and spring months to coastal waters off the southeastern U.S., from North Carolina to the Gulf of Mexico. Working with researchers from the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution and Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Skomal found that during this time some white sharks also head further out into deeper waters of the open Atlantic, going as far east as the Azores. In a 2017 paper in the Marine Ecology Progress Series, the scientists noted that “our findings extend the known essential habitat for the white shark in the North Atlantic beyond existing protection, with implications for future conservation.”
“We now have relatively robust white shark populations on both coasts” of the U.S. and in “hot spots” around the world, said marine conservation biologist Austin Gallagher, chief executive and lead scientist at Beneath the Waves, a nonprofit research and conservation organization. “We need to find ways of coexisting with them,” he said, including educating the general public about the natural history of the white shark and how best to avoid encounters with it. According to the International Shark Attack File, about half of shark attacks on humans are related to surfing or board sports, with one fourth involving swimmers or waders. Its Web page provides additional safety advice for reducing the risk of shark bites.
Jaws was an important motivator for many people to go into marine science. “Jaws inspired me to do what I’m doing today. I thought the Jaws marine biologist Matt Hooper had a great job. I was always fascinated by sharks and the ocean,” says Skomal. “It’s an entertaining film to this day.”
Gallagher, who was not alive when Jaws premiered in 1975, saw the film when he was about eight years old. “Jaws is one of my favorite movies,” he says. “I look back on it as a motivating factor for pursuing a career as a scientist. A lot of us saw ourselves as Matt Hooper.”
“People, and especially children, are fascinated with sharks,” said Wendy Benchley, who continues to promote ocean conservation through speaking, writing and serving on the boards of nonprofits like Beneath the Waves and WildAid. She’s beginning to think about special events celebrating the 50th anniversary of Jaws as a way to increase public awareness of marine environmental issues, from plastic pollution to overfishing. “People need to be more aware that the ocean is in deep trouble,” she said.
As for Jaws, the beautifully written thriller and heart-pumping film hold up well for today’s audiences. It’s worth rereading or seeing it again—I just did—and appreciating it as a popular work of fiction that magnifies the power of the great white shark. The suspenseful opening scenes of the movie—with that pounding, fear-inducing music—feature a young woman hopping into the ocean water for a nude midnight swim and, yes, right into the jaws of a menacing great white shark. Okay. You can scream now. Or feel a little squeamish when her bloody remains are found washed up on shore.
If you’ve never read or seen Jaws, where have you been? And what are you waiting for? It’s time for a shot of adrenaline. But see the film’s man-eating shark monster for what it is: a fictional characterization in a seaside scary movie, not a portrait of the great white shark’s behavior in nature.


scientificamerican--2020-09-18--Hurricane Sally's Major Flooding Exposes Flaws in FEMA Maps

Tens of thousands of homeowners flooded by Hurricane Sally face potentially large financial losses because the federal government lists them improperly as living outside a flood zone and does not require them to have flood insurance .
The major flooding caused by Sally this week exposes flaws in the Federal Emergency Management Agency ’ s maps of the nation ’ s floodplains—flaws that lead homeowners to believe they do not face a significant flood risk and do not need flood insurance .
Sally made landfall along the Gulf Coast as a Category 2 hurricane Tuesday and was downgraded yesterday to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ were in effect from northern Georgia through the Carolinas into southeast Virginia .
Roughly 500,000 customers remained without power in the Southeast .
The storm caused major flooding in southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle , largely because of rainfall as opposed to wind-induced storm surge .
Near Pensacola , Fla. , in the small town of Molino , more than 16 inches of rain fell in a 24-hour period , according to a U.S. Geological Survey gauge .
That ’ s a problem , said Jeremy Porter , chief researcher at the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ City nonprofit that gained national attention this year by creating high-definition floods maps for the nation .
FEMA flood maps don ’ t account for all of the flooding caused by major rainstorms such as Hurricane Sally , which means that FEMA ’ s flood zones exclude properties vulnerable to rain-induced “ pluvial ” flooding , Porter said .
FEMA maps account for rainfall only to the extent that rain causes rivers and larger streams to overflow .
The maps don ’ t include rainfall that causes flooding outside of streams , Porter @ @ @ @ @ @ @ take into account small creeks , tributaries and heavy pluvial events , ” Porter said .
“ Unfortunately for homeowners in this area , that ’ s going to drive a lot of the [ recent ] flooding , because it ’ s heavily pluvial.
” Sally ’ s slow movement over Gulf Coast states enabled it to drop extensive rain , similar to how Hurricane Harvey soaked Texas in 2017 and Hurricane Florence drenched North Carolina in 2018 .
The National Hurricane Center said Wednesday that Sally ’ s slow progress would @ @ @ @ @ @ @ rainfall and historic flooding along the north-central Gulf Coast.
” “ Sally sat over that area for two days .
That ’ s exactly what Harvey did , ” Porter said .
FEMA flood maps are crucial because many property owners who live in a high-risk flood zone are required under federal law to have flood insurance .
People outside flood zones have no requirement and typically do not buy flood coverage .
Flood insurance is sold separately from homeowners ’ insurance policies , which do not cover flood damage .
The First @ @ @ @ @ @ @ released in June to national acclaim , highlighted the problem with FEMA ’ s maps by accounting for rain-related flooding .
The result was that First Street found 14.6 million U.S. properties face a 1 % annual chance of being flooded .
FEMA maps show only 8.6 million properties facing a 1 % annual chance of flooding .
In the area hit by Hurricane Sally , nearly 250,000 properties are in First Street ’ s flood zones but not in FEMA ’ s flood zones , according to an E & E News @ @ @ @ @ @ @ & E News analyzed the 162 counties in Alabama , Florida , Louisiana and Mississippi in which FEMA declared an emergency on Monday and Tuesday .
In Mobile County , Ala. , on the Gulf Coast , FEMA lists 22,000 properties in a flood zone , while First Street found 39,000 properties face a significant flood risk .
In Santa Rosa County , Fla. , FEMA lists 10,900 properties in a flood zone , but First Street found 17,100 properties face a significant flood risk .
FEMA has acknowledged shortcomings with its flood @ @ @ @ @ @ @ give many people a false sense that they are protected from flooding if they are shown to be outside a flood zone .
The agency is refining the maps to capture flood risk more accurately .
In a statement to E & E News yesterday , FEMA Deputy Associate Administrator David Maurstad , who runs the agency ’ s mapping program , said : “ It ’ s important to recognize what FEMA flood maps are and what they are not .
The flood maps are not predictions of where it will flood @ @ @ @ @ @ @ show where it ’ s flooded in the past .
The flood maps are snapshots in time of risk designed to show minimum standards for floodplain management and the highest risk areas for flood insurance.
” Maurstad noted that FEMA works with states and municipalities to incorporate local knowledge and data into flood maps .
“ At any time , community officials can submit scientific or technical data to FEMA to support a local map revision , ” Maurstad said .
“ Hurricanes do not follow lines on a map .
Where it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Porter agreed with the agency .
He said FEMA shows flood zones to help communities decide where development should occur .
First Street shows individual property owners their flood risk to help them decide whether to take mitigation steps .
“ They ’ d love to do some of the stuff we ’ re doing , ” Porter said of FEMA .
Reprinted from Climatewire with permission from E & E News .
E & E provides daily coverage of essential energy and environmental news at www.eenews.net .

Tens of thousands of homeowners flooded by Hurricane Sally face potentially large financial losses because the federal government lists them improperly as living outside a flood zone and does not require them to have flood insurance.
The major flooding caused by Sally this week exposes flaws in the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s maps of the nation’s floodplains—flaws that lead homeowners to believe they do not face a significant flood risk and do not need flood insurance.
Sally made landfall along the Gulf Coast as a Category 2 hurricane Tuesday and was downgraded yesterday to a tropical depression. Flash flood watches were in effect from northern Georgia through the Carolinas into southeast Virginia. Roughly 500,000 customers remained without power in the Southeast.
The storm caused major flooding in southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle, largely because of rainfall as opposed to wind-induced storm surge. Near Pensacola, Fla., in the small town of Molino, more than 16 inches of rain fell in a 24-hour period, according to a U.S. Geological Survey gauge.
That’s a problem, said Jeremy Porter, chief researcher at the First Street Foundation, a New York City nonprofit that gained national attention this year by creating high-definition floods maps for the nation.
FEMA flood maps don’t account for all of the flooding caused by major rainstorms such as Hurricane Sally, which means that FEMA’s flood zones exclude properties vulnerable to rain-induced “pluvial” flooding, Porter said.
FEMA maps account for rainfall only to the extent that rain causes rivers and larger streams to overflow. The maps don’t include rainfall that causes flooding outside of streams, Porter said.
“They don’t take into account small creeks, tributaries and heavy pluvial events,” Porter said. “Unfortunately for homeowners in this area, that’s going to drive a lot of the [recent] flooding, because it’s heavily pluvial.”
Sally’s slow movement over Gulf Coast states enabled it to drop extensive rain, similar to how Hurricane Harvey soaked Texas in 2017 and Hurricane Florence drenched North Carolina in 2018.
The National Hurricane Center said Wednesday that Sally’s slow progress would create “a long period of heavy rainfall and historic flooding along the north-central Gulf Coast.”
“Sally sat over that area for two days. That’s exactly what Harvey did,” Porter said.
FEMA flood maps are crucial because many property owners who live in a high-risk flood zone are required under federal law to have flood insurance. People outside flood zones have no requirement and typically do not buy flood coverage. Flood insurance is sold separately from homeowners’ insurance policies, which do not cover flood damage.
The First Street Foundation’s flood maps, released in June to national acclaim, highlighted the problem with FEMA’s maps by accounting for rain-related flooding.
The result was that First Street found 14.6 million U.S. properties face a 1% annual chance of being flooded. FEMA maps show only 8.6 million properties facing a 1% annual chance of flooding.
In the area hit by Hurricane Sally, nearly 250,000 properties are in First Street’s flood zones but not in FEMA’s flood zones, according to an E&E News analysis of First Street data. E&E News analyzed the 162 counties in Alabama, Florida, Louisiana and Mississippi in which FEMA declared an emergency on Monday and Tuesday.
In Mobile County, Ala., on the Gulf Coast, FEMA lists 22,000 properties in a flood zone, while First Street found 39,000 properties face a significant flood risk.
In Santa Rosa County, Fla., FEMA lists 10,900 properties in a flood zone, but First Street found 17,100 properties face a significant flood risk.
FEMA has acknowledged shortcomings with its flood maps and said publicly that the maps give many people a false sense that they are protected from flooding if they are shown to be outside a flood zone. The agency is refining the maps to capture flood risk more accurately.
In a statement to E&E News yesterday, FEMA Deputy Associate Administrator David Maurstad, who runs the agency’s mapping program, said: “It’s important to recognize what FEMA flood maps are and what they are not. The flood maps are not predictions of where it will flood, and they don’t just show where it’s flooded in the past. The flood maps are snapshots in time of risk designed to show minimum standards for floodplain management and the highest risk areas for flood insurance.”
Maurstad noted that FEMA works with states and municipalities to incorporate local knowledge and data into flood maps.
“At any time, community officials can submit scientific or technical data to FEMA to support a local map revision,” Maurstad said. “Hurricanes do not follow lines on a map. Where it can rain, it can flood.”
Porter agreed with the agency. He said FEMA shows flood zones to help communities decide where development should occur. First Street shows individual property owners their flood risk to help them decide whether to take mitigation steps.
“They’d love to do some of the stuff we’re doing,” Porter said of FEMA.
Reprinted from Climatewire with permission from E&E News. E&E provides daily coverage of essential energy and environmental news at www.eenews.net.


scientificamerican--2020-09-18--Who Will Get a COVID-19 Vaccine First? Access Plans Are Taking Shape

Whether it takes weeks , as US President Donald Trump has hinted , or months , as most health-care experts expect , an approved vaccine against the coronavirus is coming , and it 's hotly anticipated .
Still , it will initially be in short supply while manufacturers scale up production .
As the pandemic continues to put millions at risk daily , including health-care workers , older people and those with pre-existing diseases , who should get vaccinated first ?
This week , a strategic advisory group at the World Health Organization ( WHO ) weighed in with preliminary @ @ @ @ @ @ @ groups that should be prioritized .
These recommendations join a draft plan from a panel assembled by the US National Academies of Sciences , Engineering , and Medicine ( NASEM ) , released earlier this month .
Experts praise both plans for addressing the historic scale and unique epidemiology of the coronavirus pandemic .
And they commend the NASEM for including in their guidance minority racial and ethnic groups—which COVID-19 has hit hard—by addressing the socio-economic factors that put them at risk .
The WHO plan , on the other hand , is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ need more detail before its recommendations can become actionable , others say .
“ It ’ s important to have different groups thinking through the problem , ” says Eric Toner , an emergency-medicine physician and pandemics expert who has done similar planning at Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security in Baltimore , Maryland .
And although the plans differ somewhat , Toner says he sees a lot of agreement .
“ It ’ s great that there ’ s a consensus of opinion on these issues.
” The WHO ’ s guidance @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of people should have priority access to vaccines .
The NASEM guidance goes a step further by ranking priority groups in order of who should get a vaccine first ( see ‘ A tiered approach ’ ) .
After health-care workers , medically vulnerable groups should be among the first to receive a vaccine , according to the NASEM draft plan .
These include older people living in crowded settings , and individuals with multiple existing conditions , such as serious heart disease or diabetes , that put them at risk for more-serious @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in essential industries , such as public transit , because their jobs place them in contact with many people .
Similarly , people who live in certain crowded settings—homeless shelters and prisons , for example—are called out as deserving early access .
Many nations already have general vaccine-allocation plans , but they are tailored for an influenza pandemic rather than the new coronavirus .
They typically prioritize children and pregnant women ; the COVID-19 plans do not , however , because most vaccine trials currently do not include pregnant women , and the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ children than influenza is .
The NASEM guidance , in fact , recommends giving children COVID-19 vaccines during one of the final phases of its allocation plan .
Unlike the NASEM guidance , the WHO plan notes that government leaders should have early access , but cautions that people prioritized in this way should be “ narrowly interpreted to include a very small number of individuals ” .
“ We were very concerned about the possibility that this group could serve as a loophole through which a truckload of people who identify as @ @ @ @ @ @ @ front of the line , ” says Ruth Faden , a bioethicist at the Johns Hopkins Berman Institute of Bioethics in Baltimore , Maryland , who was part of the group that drafted the WHO guidance .
Access for disadvantaged groups is addressed in both the plans .
Looking to past failures , the WHO guidance urges richer countries to ensure that poorer countries receive vaccines in the earliest days of allocation .
During the 2009 H1N1 flu pandemic , “ by the time the world had gotten around to figuring out how @ @ @ @ @ @ @ middle-income countries , the pandemic was over ” , says Faden .
But the WHO proposal does not yet suggest how nations might resolve the tension between allocating vaccines in a country versus allocating them among countries , says Angus Dawson , a bioethicist at the University of Sydney in Australia , who published a review of national pandemic allocation ethics earlier this year .
In other words , should harder-hit nations receive a bigger allocation of an early vaccine before other nations have a chance to dose their high-priority groups ?
The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ plan by both the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention ( CDC ) , which will set the US government ’ s COVID-19 vaccination plan , and the US National Institutes of Health ( NIH ) , which is coordinating vaccine and treatment trials .
When tapping NASEM to create the proposal , leaders from both agencies requested that the report address how to give vaccine priority to “ populations at high risk ” , including “ racial and ethnic groups ” that have been affected by COVID-19 and have died at @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in the United States .
The panel determined that these groups are vulnerable chiefly for socio-economic reasons tied to systemic racism—for example , they have high-risk jobs and live in high-risk areas—and therefore addressed the request through this lens , without singling out the groups because of their racial or ethnic identities .
“ We really are trying to make sure that people of colour , who have been disproportionately impacted , will also have priority—but for the factors that put them at risk , not highlighting just their racial and ethnic makeup @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and chief executive officer of The Chicago Community Trust in Illinois , and who is a co-chair of the NASEM committee that drafted the proposal .
Faden says the recommendations acknowledge the current focus on racial injustice in the United States .
“ I was reading to see : does this report speak to the cultural moment in the United States , does it speak to racism and other forms of structural inequality ?
And it does , ” she says .
The NASEM panel therefore proposes a lengthy list of essential workers @ @ @ @ @ @ @ vaccine , including grocery-store workers , transit workers and postal workers .
People from hard-hit ethnic and racial groups are overrepresented in these jobs .
US states should also use the CDC ’ s Social Vulnerability Index to help to make decisions about allocation , the NASEM plan suggests .
A geography-based tool that typically guides the allotment of aid after a national disaster , it accounts for where people live , as well as health conditions that are over-represented in Black and Indigenous people , and other people of colour .
The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ continue to update its guidance , first to assign rankings to its priority groups , and then to include real data from vaccine trials , such as how effective a given vaccine is in older people .
Although the guidance is available to all WHO member nations , none is compelled to implement it .
In the United States , the NASEM committee is due to issue a final plan in October .
Ultimately , the CDC will consider these recommendations among others while developing its own vaccine-allocation plan for the country , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ be the guidance that public-health departments , doctors and pharmacies throughout the United States should follow when handing out vaccines—assuming that one has been proven safe and people are willing to take it .
Trump has been rooting for a vaccine to be ready by November , in time for the US presidential election—but a perception that the vaccine has been rushed could erode people ’ s trust in it , says Sandra Crouse Quinn , a behavioural scientist at the Center for Health Equity at the University of Maryland in College Park @ @ @ @ @ @ @ effective .
When it comes to putting any of these plans into action , Dawson says , “ You have to take into account the political context.
” This article is reproduced with permission and was first published on September 17 2020 .

Whether it takes weeks, as US President Donald Trump has hinted, or months, as most health-care experts expect, an approved vaccine against the coronavirus is coming, and it's hotly anticipated. Still, it will initially be in short supply while manufacturers scale up production. As the pandemic continues to put millions at risk daily, including health-care workers, older people and those with pre-existing diseases, who should get vaccinated first?
This week, a strategic advisory group at the World Health Organization (WHO) weighed in with preliminary guidance for global vaccine allocation, identifying groups that should be prioritized. These recommendations join a draft plan from a panel assembled by the US National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine (NASEM), released earlier this month.
Experts praise both plans for addressing the historic scale and unique epidemiology of the coronavirus pandemic. And they commend the NASEM for including in their guidance minority racial and ethnic groups—which COVID-19 has hit hard—by addressing the socio-economic factors that put them at risk. The WHO plan, on the other hand, is still at an early stage and will need more detail before its recommendations can become actionable, others say.
“It’s important to have different groups thinking through the problem,” says Eric Toner, an emergency-medicine physician and pandemics expert who has done similar planning at Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security in Baltimore, Maryland. And although the plans differ somewhat, Toner says he sees a lot of agreement. “It’s great that there’s a consensus of opinion on these issues.”
Head of the line
The WHO’s guidance at this point lists only which groups of people should have priority access to vaccines. The NASEM guidance goes a step further by ranking priority groups in order of who should get a vaccine first (see ‘A tiered approach’).
After health-care workers, medically vulnerable groups should be among the first to receive a vaccine, according to the NASEM draft plan. These include older people living in crowded settings, and individuals with multiple existing conditions, such as serious heart disease or diabetes, that put them at risk for more-serious COVID-19 infection.
The plan prioritizes workers in essential industries, such as public transit, because their jobs place them in contact with many people. Similarly, people who live in certain crowded settings—homeless shelters and prisons, for example—are called out as deserving early access.
Many nations already have general vaccine-allocation plans, but they are tailored for an influenza pandemic rather than the new coronavirus. They typically prioritize children and pregnant women; the COVID-19 plans do not, however, because most vaccine trials currently do not include pregnant women, and the coronavirus seems to be less deadly to children than influenza is. The NASEM guidance, in fact, recommends giving children COVID-19 vaccines during one of the final phases of its allocation plan.
Unlike the NASEM guidance, the WHO plan notes that government leaders should have early access, but cautions that people prioritized in this way should be “narrowly interpreted to include a very small number of individuals”.
“We were very concerned about the possibility that this group could serve as a loophole through which a truckload of people who identify as important could then push themselves to the front of the line,” says Ruth Faden, a bioethicist at the Johns Hopkins Berman Institute of Bioethics in Baltimore, Maryland, who was part of the group that drafted the WHO guidance.
Hard-hit groups
Access for disadvantaged groups is addressed in both the plans. Looking to past failures, the WHO guidance urges richer countries to ensure that poorer countries receive vaccines in the earliest days of allocation. During the 2009 H1N1 flu pandemic, “by the time the world had gotten around to figuring out how to get vaccines to some low- and middle-income countries, the pandemic was over”, says Faden.
But the WHO proposal does not yet suggest how nations might resolve the tension between allocating vaccines in a country versus allocating them among countries, says Angus Dawson, a bioethicist at the University of Sydney in Australia, who published a review of national pandemic allocation ethics earlier this year. In other words, should harder-hit nations receive a bigger allocation of an early vaccine before other nations have a chance to dose their high-priority groups?
The NASEM was asked to develop its allocation plan by both the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), which will set the US government’s COVID-19 vaccination plan, and the US National Institutes of Health (NIH), which is coordinating vaccine and treatment trials. When tapping NASEM to create the proposal, leaders from both agencies requested that the report address how to give vaccine priority to “populations at high risk”, including “racial and ethnic groups” that have been affected by COVID-19 and have died at disproportionately higher rates than have other groups in the United States. The panel determined that these groups are vulnerable chiefly for socio-economic reasons tied to systemic racism—for example, they have high-risk jobs and live in high-risk areas—and therefore addressed the request through this lens, without singling out the groups because of their racial or ethnic identities.
“We really are trying to make sure that people of colour, who have been disproportionately impacted, will also have priority—but for the factors that put them at risk, not highlighting just their racial and ethnic makeup,” says Helene Gayle, president and chief executive officer of The Chicago Community Trust in Illinois, and who is a co-chair of the NASEM committee that drafted the proposal.
Faden says the recommendations acknowledge the current focus on racial injustice in the United States. “I was reading to see: does this report speak to the cultural moment in the United States, does it speak to racism and other forms of structural inequality? And it does,” she says.
The NASEM panel therefore proposes a lengthy list of essential workers who should get priority access to a vaccine, including grocery-store workers, transit workers and postal workers. People from hard-hit ethnic and racial groups are overrepresented in these jobs.
US states should also use the CDC’s Social Vulnerability Index to help to make decisions about allocation, the NASEM plan suggests. A geography-based tool that typically guides the allotment of aid after a national disaster, it accounts for where people live, as well as health conditions that are over-represented in Black and Indigenous people, and other people of colour.
Heeding the advice
The WHO’s strategic advisory group will continue to update its guidance, first to assign rankings to its priority groups, and then to include real data from vaccine trials, such as how effective a given vaccine is in older people. Although the guidance is available to all WHO member nations, none is compelled to implement it.
In the United States, the NASEM committee is due to issue a final plan in October. Ultimately, the CDC will consider these recommendations among others while developing its own vaccine-allocation plan for the country, expected later this year.
That will be the guidance that public-health departments, doctors and pharmacies throughout the United States should follow when handing out vaccines—assuming that one has been proven safe and people are willing to take it.
Trump has been rooting for a vaccine to be ready by November, in time for the US presidential election—but a perception that the vaccine has been rushed could erode people’s trust in it, says Sandra Crouse Quinn, a behavioural scientist at the Center for Health Equity at the University of Maryland in College Park. This could make vaccine-allocation plans less effective.
When it comes to putting any of these plans into action, Dawson says, “You have to take into account the political context.”
This article is reproduced with permission and was first published on September 17 2020.


scientificamerican--2020-09-18--A Grassroots Effort to Fight Misinformation during the Pandemic

During the height of the deadly COVID-19 pandemic , with misinformation permeating every form of media , members of the public were growing increasingly concerned for their health and seeking answers about the virus , its mode of transmission and how to protect themselves and their loved ones .
Five organizations came together , recruited hundreds of volunteer scientists and built a new tool to get the best scientific information in plain language to millions of people around the world .
This is the story of that project .
In March , with the help of other organizations , the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ launched Ask a Scientist to enable the public to literally ask a scientist any question related to SARS-CoV-2 .
The site is loaded with information from reputable scientific and public health sources such that it recognizes questions and provides an automated response .
But for more custom-made questions , the public can send an email to a network of hundreds of scientists and get a response back in their inbox .
Throughout the pandemic , the site was viewed by millions of users as our expert volunteers , made up of graduate students @ @ @ @ @ @ @ answered thousands of questions , making Ask a Scientist one of the go-to resources online .
What began as a small project to combat rampant misinformation about the pandemic quickly grew into a large effort that brought together experts in virology , medicine , public health and more to help the public access up-to-date information .
In early February , news of the spread of a novel and deadly coronavirus had the U.S. , and the world , on edge .
Social media was rife with conspiracy theories and misinformation regarding the virus @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and its severity .
FAS , whose mission in part is to connect scientists with policy makers and the public , formed a small group of researchers to tackle this misinformation .
The group collected and analyzed the most pervasive myths surrounding SARS-CoV-2 , and then used sound reports and the scientific literature to debunk them .
We then launched a Web site to bring the up-to-date information to the public .
It included answers to commonly asked questions and also catchy and simple PSAs on how to best protect oneself and loved @ @ @ @ @ @ @ information on social media .
We included ways for the public to interact with our researchers to get their questions answered .
Soon after , news of our efforts spread in media outlets , on social media , and by word of mouth .
Our researchers were flooded by queries from a hungry public and the demand was far bigger than our small team at FAS could handle .
The solution was simple : if you ca n't handle the incoming volume of questions , build a Web site that can automatically answer @ @ @ @ @ @ @ New York University GovLab and the State of New Jersey Office of Innovation to build an entirely new Web site to make it easier to find answers to the most pressing questions about COVID-19 , and rebranded the project as Ask a Scientist .
We preloaded the site with answers to hundreds of questions researched by us , or taken directly from the CDC , the WHO and other established public health entities .
This new Web site also contained an answer-bot that automatically loads answers to questions typed in the search bar @ @ @ @ @ @ @ about tangentially relevant issues , and even share each answer onto social media .
Additionally , through a partnership with Amazon , we enabled users to interact with the site through their Alexa home device .
Notably , we added a feature to the site allowing those who did not find an answer to their question to send us a question and receive a response .
But this time we were ready for the deluge , thanks to a partnership with the National Science Policy Network , an organization of hundreds of graduate @ @ @ @ @ @ @ involvement and impact of early-career scientists and engineers in public policy .
This diverse group of scientists looking to make a difference during the pandemic was critical to the project ’ s success because they could field questions quickly and respond to a concerned public .
By March 15 , the Ask a Scientist volunteer network contained 150 graduate students ( 140 Ph.D. candidates and 10 master ’ s students ) , 100 Ph.D.s , 18 medical doctors , 50 with degrees in public health , 30 in virology , 30 in immunology @ @ @ @ @ @ @ expertise in science , health or risk communication .
Interest in the project only increased from this point forward , and a skilled editing team was recruited to ensure all of Ask a Scientist ’ s answers passed strict quality control measures .
To increase Ask a Scientist ’ s ability to reach as many members of the public as possible , the project ’ s Web site was translated into Spanish by a dedicated team of bilingual scientists .
By the end of May , Ask a Scientist partnered with hundreds of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ epidemiology and public health , as well as scientists from leading institutions who wanted to give back to their communities as the virus spread throughout the U.S .
Answers crafted by Ask a Scientist ’ s team of experts were also appraised for their value to others and , after removing any personally identifying information , were vetted by senior , Ph.D.-level scientists and made publicly available in the initiative ’ s comprehensive knowledge base .
By doing this , the Ask a Scientist “ answer bot ” continued to get smarter and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to provide an easy-to-navigate database of information about the COVID-19 pandemic for the general public .
By mid-April , Ask a Scientist was featured on the National Governors Association ’ s Web site as a resource for state and local officials during the COVID-19 pandemic , as well as embedded in the New Jersey and Alabama state government Web sites where it was being viewed by millions on a weekly basis .
In an April press conference , New Jersey Governor Phil Murphy called Ask a Scientist a “ truly unique feature ” @ @ @ @ @ @ @ need to protect their families ; he noted there had already been over two million visits to the New Jersey site at that point .
Ask a Scientist expanded so quickly that it outgrew its original organizational structure .
Questions flooded in from the public and the number of volunteer scientists swelled to over 500 .
The team reached out to Accenture to help build a completely new back-end system to categorize and respond to questions .
Both groups collaborated closely to construct a portal for the volunteers to make it easier to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the public , as well as communicate with each other to ensure that volunteers answered questions that aligned with their expertise .
Ask a Scientist also grew in popularity in other countries .
Our team received questions from 10 foreign nations , including Russia , India , Italy , the United Kingdom , New Zealand , France , Canada , Switzerland , Germany and Spain .
By May , the Ask a Scientist project had grown to not only provide the public with sound information , but also inform policy makers .
The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Response Task Force , is based on a similar notion : crowdsource expertise from those who work across U.S. research institutions to inform the work of policy makers .
To do this , FAS gathered some of the brightest scientific minds , in subjects such as virology , testing , big data , public health , treatments and vaccines , supply chain management , infectious disease medicine and international public health policy , to provide the best information as quickly as possible to federal and state lawmakers .
Ask a Scientist has been @ @ @ @ @ @ @ communication , as experts from all over the world worked together to translate cutting-edge research for the public and deliver the most accurate advice .
It is an effort to combat misinformation and provide individuals with the information they need in their everyday lives .
This pandemic has clearly shown that effective science communication is essential to keep people safe .
Collaborative , grassroots initiatives like Ask a Scientist can make a real impact in these efforts .
This effort would not be possible without support from the Rita Allen Foundation , the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Hewlett Foundation , Schmidt Futures , and individuals who support FAS .

During the height of the deadly COVID-19 pandemic, with misinformation permeating every form of media, members of the public were growing increasingly concerned for their health and seeking answers about the virus, its mode of transmission and how to protect themselves and their loved ones. Five organizations came together, recruited hundreds of volunteer scientists and built a new tool to get the best scientific information in plain language to millions of people around the world. This is the story of that project.
In March, with the help of other organizations, the Federation of American Scientists (FAS) launched Ask a Scientist to enable the public to literally ask a scientist any question related to SARS-CoV-2. The site is loaded with information from reputable scientific and public health sources such that it recognizes questions and provides an automated response. But for more custom-made questions, the public can send an email to a network of hundreds of scientists and get a response back in their inbox.
Throughout the pandemic, the site was viewed by millions of users as our expert volunteers, made up of graduate students, postdoctoral fellows and faculty members, answered thousands of questions, making Ask a Scientist one of the go-to resources online. What began as a small project to combat rampant misinformation about the pandemic quickly grew into a large effort that brought together experts in virology, medicine, public health and more to help the public access up-to-date information.
IN THE BEGINNING
In early February, news of the spread of a novel and deadly coronavirus had the U.S., and the world, on edge. Social media was rife with conspiracy theories and misinformation regarding the virus’ origin, how it spreads, and its severity. FAS, whose mission in part is to connect scientists with policy makers and the public, formed a small group of researchers to tackle this misinformation. The group collected and analyzed the most pervasive myths surrounding SARS-CoV-2, and then used sound reports and the scientific literature to debunk them.
We then launched a Web site to bring the up-to-date information to the public. It included answers to commonly asked questions and also catchy and simple PSAs on how to best protect oneself and loved ones. We also pushed out this information on social media. We included ways for the public to interact with our researchers to get their questions answered.
Soon after, news of our efforts spread in media outlets, on social media, and by word of mouth. Our researchers were flooded by queries from a hungry public and the demand was far bigger than our small team at FAS could handle.
ENTER NYU AND NEW JERSEY
The solution was simple: if you can't handle the incoming volume of questions, build a Web site that can automatically answer them. So FAS partnered with the New York University GovLab and the State of New Jersey Office of Innovation to build an entirely new Web site to make it easier to find answers to the most pressing questions about COVID-19, and rebranded the project as Ask a Scientist.
We preloaded the site with answers to hundreds of questions researched by us, or taken directly from the CDC, the WHO and other established public health entities. This new Web site also contained an answer-bot that automatically loads answers to questions typed in the search bar. Users can go in-depth, read about tangentially relevant issues, and even share each answer onto social media. Additionally, through a partnership with Amazon, we enabled users to interact with the site through their Alexa home device.
ASK A SCIENTIST
Notably, we added a feature to the site allowing those who did not find an answer to their question to send us a question and receive a response. But this time we were ready for the deluge, thanks to a partnership with the National Science Policy Network, an organization of hundreds of graduate students and postdocs aiming to promote the involvement and impact of early-career scientists and engineers in public policy.
This diverse group of scientists looking to make a difference during the pandemic was critical to the project’s success because they could field questions quickly and respond to a concerned public. By March 15, the Ask a Scientist volunteer network contained 150 graduate students (140 Ph.D. candidates and 10 master’s students), 100 Ph.D.s, 18 medical doctors, 50 with degrees in public health, 30 in virology, 30 in immunology, 20 in epidemiology and 15 with expertise in science, health or risk communication. Interest in the project only increased from this point forward, and a skilled editing team was recruited to ensure all of Ask a Scientist’s answers passed strict quality control measures.
To increase Ask a Scientist’s ability to reach as many members of the public as possible, the project’s Web site was translated into Spanish by a dedicated team of bilingual scientists. By the end of May, Ask a Scientist partnered with hundreds of NSPN members with expertise in virology, epidemiology and public health, as well as scientists from leading institutions who wanted to give back to their communities as the virus spread throughout the U.S.
Answers crafted by Ask a Scientist’s team of experts were also appraised for their value to others and, after removing any personally identifying information, were vetted by senior, Ph.D.-level scientists and made publicly available in the initiative’s comprehensive knowledge base. By doing this, the Ask a Scientist “answer bot” continued to get smarter and smarter. These answers were frequently updated to provide an easy-to-navigate database of information about the COVID-19 pandemic for the general public.
By mid-April, Ask a Scientist was featured on the National Governors Association’s Web site as a resource for state and local officials during the COVID-19 pandemic, as well as embedded in the New Jersey and Alabama state government Web sites where it was being viewed by millions on a weekly basis. In an April press conference, New Jersey Governor Phil Murphy called Ask a Scientist a “truly unique feature” that helps people get the answers they need to protect their families; he noted there had already been over two million visits to the New Jersey site at that point.
Ask a Scientist expanded so quickly that it outgrew its original organizational structure. Questions flooded in from the public and the number of volunteer scientists swelled to over 500. The team reached out to Accenture to help build a completely new back-end system to categorize and respond to questions. Both groups collaborated closely to construct a portal for the volunteers to make it easier to sort, answer and edit responses for the public, as well as communicate with each other to ensure that volunteers answered questions that aligned with their expertise. Ask a Scientist also grew in popularity in other countries. Our team received questions from 10 foreign nations, including Russia, India, Italy, the United Kingdom, New Zealand, France, Canada, Switzerland, Germany and Spain.
A NEW PHASE
By May, the Ask a Scientist project had grown to not only provide the public with sound information, but also inform policy makers. The new initiative, called the COVID-19 Rapid Response Task Force, is based on a similar notion: crowdsource expertise from those who work across U.S. research institutions to inform the work of policy makers. To do this, FAS gathered some of the brightest scientific minds, in subjects such as virology, testing, big data, public health, treatments and vaccines, supply chain management, infectious disease medicine and international public health policy, to provide the best information as quickly as possible to federal and state lawmakers.
LOOKING AHEAD
Ask a Scientist has been an effort of collaborative science policy and communication, as experts from all over the world worked together to translate cutting-edge research for the public and deliver the most accurate advice. It is an effort to combat misinformation and provide individuals with the information they need in their everyday lives. This pandemic has clearly shown that effective science communication is essential to keep people safe. Collaborative, grassroots initiatives like Ask a Scientist can make a real impact in these efforts.
This effort would not be possible without support from the Rita Allen Foundation, the Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation, the Hewlett Foundation, Schmidt Futures, and individuals who support FAS.


scientificamerican--2020-09-18--These Small Mammals Snort to a Different Tune

They grow to about 20 inches long and weigh less than 10 pounds .
So you might not think they ’ d be the closest living relatives to elephants .
Meet the rock hyrax , sometimes called the rock rabbit or the dassie , common in rocky areas of Africa and the Middle East .
They live in groups of up to 80 individuals .
“ The hyraxes are a mammal that has a rare phenomenon , which is singing .
We know a lot of birds sing , but we don ’ t have many mammals that actually perform @ @ @ @ @ @ @ different syllables coming in bouts .
And these bouts are complex .
And along the song , they get more and more complex , they get longer , they include more sounds.
” Biomusicologist Yishai Weissman from Bar-Ilan University and Hebrew University in Israel .
“ We ’ ve tried to understand the meaning of all this—why a hyrax would waste time and energy and expose himself to predators by singing such a loud song.
” Weissman and his team recorded the songs of male hyraxes during mating season , and they analyzed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the song is an advertisement for male quality .
And in the song , the rarest thing , most interesting element , is the snort .
It sounds like this—just like a snort .
The whole song seems to be an introduction for these snorts.
” In the earliest parts of the song , snorts are relatively rare .
But as the song continues , they become more common , resulting in a snort crescendo .
The increase in snorts reflects the animals ’ inner emotional state : as they become more excited @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , well , snortier .
And those snorts , according to Weissman ’ s findings , also become louder and harsher .
The snorty study is in the journal Animal Behaviour .
[ Yishai A. Weissman et al.
, A crescendo in the inner structure of snorts : A reflection of increasing arousal in rock hyrax songs ? ]
Weissman thinks that the snort crescendo , together with the increasing harshness , make the songs impossible to ignore and grabs the attention of other hyraxes—which makes sense .
Harshness is a salient feature @ @ @ @ @ @ @ barking dogs and frightened piglets .
Acoustic harshness is routinely used in movie soundtracks to increase tension—and attention .
“ It might be that these snorts are what ’ s keeping the listeners listening .
A lot of times , the hyrax is just busy eating leaves , and they don ’ t even turn their heads to someone that ’ s singing .
The snorts might be what serves as an attention grabber .
And getting harsher and harsher might keep the listeners from droning off.
” For Weissman , this work @ @ @ @ @ @ @ nuances of hyrax communication .
He believes that understanding why hyraxes sing , and how they construct their songs , could reveal something about the evolutionary origins of human speech and human music—which is no snorting matter .
[ The above text is a transcript of this podcast . ]

Full Transcript
They grow to about 20 inches long and weigh less than 10 pounds. So you might not think they’d be the closest living relatives to elephants. Meet the rock hyrax, sometimes called the rock rabbit or the dassie, common in rocky areas of Africa and the Middle East. They live in groups of up to 80 individuals.
“The hyraxes are a mammal that has a rare phenomenon, which is singing. We know a lot of birds sing, but we don’t have many mammals that actually perform a song, a complex song with different syllables coming in bouts. And these bouts are complex. And along the song, they get more and more complex, they get longer, they include more sounds.”
Biomusicologist Yishai Weissman from Bar-Ilan University and Hebrew University in Israel.
“We’ve tried to understand the meaning of all this—why a hyrax would waste time and energy and expose himself to predators by singing such a loud song.”
Weissman and his team recorded the songs of male hyraxes during mating season, and they analyzed their structure.
“We found that the song is an advertisement for male quality. And in the song, the rarest thing, most interesting element, is the snort. It sounds like this—just like a snort. The whole song seems to be an introduction for these snorts.”
In the earliest parts of the song, snorts are relatively rare. But as the song continues, they become more common, resulting in a snort crescendo. The increase in snorts reflects the animals’ inner emotional state: as they become more excited or more aggressive, their songs become, well, snortier. And those snorts, according to Weissman’s findings, also become louder and harsher. The snorty study is in the journal Animal Behaviour. [Yishai A. Weissman et al., A crescendo in the inner structure of snorts: A reflection of increasing arousal in rock hyrax songs?]
Weissman thinks that the snort crescendo, together with the increasing harshness, make the songs impossible to ignore and grabs the attention of other hyraxes—which makes sense. Harshness is a salient feature in the sounds of crying newborns, barking dogs and frightened piglets. Acoustic harshness is routinely used in movie soundtracks to increase tension—and attention.
“It might be that these snorts are what’s keeping the listeners listening. A lot of times, the hyrax is just busy eating leaves, and they don’t even turn their heads to someone that’s singing. The snorts might be what serves as an attention grabber. And getting harsher and harsher might keep the listeners from droning off.”
For Weissman, this work isn’t only about understanding the nuances of hyrax communication. He believes that understanding why hyraxes sing, and how they construct their songs, could reveal something about the evolutionary origins of human speech and human music—which is no snorting matter.
—Jason G. Goldman
[The above text is a transcript of this podcast.]


scientificamerican--2020-09-16--COVID-19 and Smoke Inhalation Symptoms Are Hard to Tell Apart

The patients walk into Dr. Melissa Marshall ’ s community clinics in Northern California with the telltale symptoms .
They ’ re having trouble breathing .
It may even hurt to inhale .
They ’ ve got a cough , and the sore throat is definitely there .
A straight case of COVID-19 ?
Not so fast .
This is wildfire country .
Up and down the West Coast , hospitals and health facilities are reporting an influx of patients with problems most likely related to smoke inhalation .
As fires rage largely uncontrolled amid dry heat and high winds @ @ @ @ @ @ @ settling on coastal areas like San Francisco and cities and towns hundreds of miles inland as well , turning the sky orange or gray and making even ordinary breathing difficult .
But that , Marshall said , is only part of the challenge .
Facilities already strapped for testing supplies and personal protective equipment must first rule out COVID-19 in these patients , because many of the symptoms they present with are the same as those caused by the virus .
“ Obviously , there ’ s overlap in the symptoms , ” @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , a collection of six clinics in Yolo County , near Sacramento , that treats mostly underinsured and uninsured patients .
“ Any time someone comes in with even some of those symptoms , we ask ourselves , ‘ Is it COVID ?
’ At the end of the day , clinically speaking , I still want to rule out the virus.
” The protocol is to treat the symptoms , whatever their cause , while recommending that the patient quarantine until test results for the virus come back , she said .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ numerous hospitals .
Administrators and physicians , finely attuned to COVID-19 ’ s ability to spread quickly and wreak havoc , simply won ’ t take a chance when they recognize symptoms that could emanate from the virus .
“ We ’ ve seen an increase in patients presenting to the emergency department with respiratory distress , ” said Dr. Nanette Mickiewicz , president and CEO of Dominican Hospital in Santa Cruz .
“ As this can also be a symptom of COVID-19 , we ’ re treating these patients as we would @ @ @ @ @ @ @ we can rule them out through our screening process.
” During the workup , symptoms that are more specific to COVID-19 , like fever , would become apparent .
For the workers at Dominican , the issue moved to the top of the list quickly .
Santa Cruz and San Mateo counties have borne the brunt of the CZU Lightning Complex fires , which as of Sept. 10 had burned more than 86,000 acres , destroying 1,100 structures and threatening more than 7,600 others .
Nearly a month after they began , the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ but thousands of people remained evacuated .
Dominican , a Dignity Health hospital , is “ open , safe and providing care , ” Mickiewicz said .
Multiple tents erected outside the building serve as an extension of its ER waiting room .
They also are used to perform what has come to be understood as an essential role : separating those with symptoms of COVID-19 from those without .
At the two Solano County hospitals operated by NorthBay Healthcare , the path of some of the wildfires prompted officials to review their @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
They ultimately avoided the need to evacuate patients , and new ones arrived with COVID-like symptoms that may actually have been from smoke inhalation .
Huddleston said NorthBay ’ s intake process “ calls for anyone with COVID characteristics to be handled as [ a ] patient under investigation for COVID , which means they ’ re separated , screened and managed by staff in special PPE.
” At the two hospitals , which have handled nearly 200 COVID cases so far , the protocol is well established .
Hospitals in California @ @ @ @ @ @ @ cases , are dealing with multiple issues they might typically face only sporadically .
In Napa County , Adventist Health St. Helena hospital evacuated 51 patients on a single August night as a fire approached , moving them to 10 other facilities according to their needs and bed space .
After a 10-day closure , the hospital was allowed to reopen as evacuation orders were lifted , the fire having been contained some distance away .
The wildfires are also taking a personal toll on health care workers .
CommuniCare ’ s Marshall @ @ @ @ @ @ @ rural Winters , along with 20 acres of olive trees and other plantings that surrounded it , in the Aug. 19 fires that swept through Solano County .
“ They called it a ‘ firenado , ’ ” Marshall said .
An apparent confluence of three fires raged out of control , demolishing thousands of acres .
With her family safely accounted for and temporary housing arranged by a friend , she returned to work .
“ Our clinics interact with a very vulnerable population , ” she said , “ and this @ @ @ @ @ @ @ While she pondered how her family would rebuild , the CEO was faced with another immediate crisis : the clinic ’ s shortage of supplies .
Last month , CommuniCare got down to 19 COVID test kits on hand , and ran so low on swabs “ that we were literally turning to our veterinary friends for reinforcements , ” the doctor said .
The clinic ’ s COVID test results , meanwhile , were taking nearly two weeks to be returned from an overwhelmed outside lab , rendering contact tracing almost useless @ @ @ @ @ @ @ at least temporarily , Marshall said .
But although the West Coast is in the most dangerous time of year for wildfires , generally September to December , another complication for health providers lies on the horizon : flu season .
The Southern Hemisphere , whose influenza trends during our summer months typically predict what ’ s to come for the U.S. , has had very little of the disease this year , presumably because of restricted travel , social distancing and face masks .
But it ’ s too early to be @ @ @ @ @ @ @ entail .
“ You can start to see some cases of the flu in late October , ” said Marshall , “ and the reality is that it ’ s going to carry a number of characteristics that could also be symptomatic of COVID .
And nothing changes : You have to rule it out , just to eliminate the risk.
” This story was originally published by Kaiser Health News on September 16 2020 .
Read the original story here .

The patients walk into Dr. Melissa Marshall’s community clinics in Northern California with the telltale symptoms. They’re having trouble breathing. It may even hurt to inhale. They’ve got a cough, and the sore throat is definitely there.
A straight case of COVID-19? Not so fast. This is wildfire country.
Up and down the West Coast, hospitals and health facilities are reporting an influx of patients with problems most likely related to smoke inhalation. As fires rage largely uncontrolled amid dry heat and high winds, smoke and ash are billowing and settling on coastal areas like San Francisco and cities and towns hundreds of miles inland as well, turning the sky orange or gray and making even ordinary breathing difficult.
But that, Marshall said, is only part of the challenge. Facilities already strapped for testing supplies and personal protective equipment must first rule out COVID-19 in these patients, because many of the symptoms they present with are the same as those caused by the virus.
“Obviously, there’s overlap in the symptoms,” said Marshall, the CEO of CommuniCare, a collection of six clinics in Yolo County, near Sacramento, that treats mostly underinsured and uninsured patients. “Any time someone comes in with even some of those symptoms, we ask ourselves, ‘Is it COVID?’ At the end of the day, clinically speaking, I still want to rule out the virus.”
The protocol is to treat the symptoms, whatever their cause, while recommending that the patient quarantine until test results for the virus come back, she said.
It is a scene playing out in numerous hospitals. Administrators and physicians, finely attuned to COVID-19’s ability to spread quickly and wreak havoc, simply won’t take a chance when they recognize symptoms that could emanate from the virus.
“We’ve seen an increase in patients presenting to the emergency department with respiratory distress,” said Dr. Nanette Mickiewicz, president and CEO of Dominican Hospital in Santa Cruz. “As this can also be a symptom of COVID-19, we’re treating these patients as we would any person under investigation for coronavirus until we can rule them out through our screening process.” During the workup, symptoms that are more specific to COVID-19, like fever, would become apparent.
For the workers at Dominican, the issue moved to the top of the list quickly. Santa Cruz and San Mateo counties have borne the brunt of the CZU Lightning Complex fires, which as of Sept. 10 had burned more than 86,000 acres, destroying 1,100 structures and threatening more than 7,600 others. Nearly a month after they began, the fires were approximately 84% contained, but thousands of people remained evacuated.
Dominican, a Dignity Health hospital, is “open, safe and providing care,” Mickiewicz said. Multiple tents erected outside the building serve as an extension of its ER waiting room. They also are used to perform what has come to be understood as an essential role: separating those with symptoms of COVID-19 from those without.
At the two Solano County hospitals operated by NorthBay Healthcare, the path of some of the wildfires prompted officials to review their evacuation procedures, said spokesperson Steve Huddleston. They ultimately avoided the need to evacuate patients, and new ones arrived with COVID-like symptoms that may actually have been from smoke inhalation.
Huddleston said NorthBay’s intake process “calls for anyone with COVID characteristics to be handled as [a] patient under investigation for COVID, which means they’re separated, screened and managed by staff in special PPE.” At the two hospitals, which have handled nearly 200 COVID cases so far, the protocol is well established.
Hospitals in California, though not under siege in most cases, are dealing with multiple issues they might typically face only sporadically. In Napa County, Adventist Health St. Helena hospital evacuated 51 patients on a single August night as a fire approached, moving them to 10 other facilities according to their needs and bed space. After a 10-day closure, the hospital was allowed to reopen as evacuation orders were lifted, the fire having been contained some distance away.
The wildfires are also taking a personal toll on health care workers. CommuniCare’s Marshall lost her family’s home in rural Winters, along with 20 acres of olive trees and other plantings that surrounded it, in the Aug. 19 fires that swept through Solano County.
“They called it a ‘firenado,’” Marshall said. An apparent confluence of three fires raged out of control, demolishing thousands of acres. With her family safely accounted for and temporary housing arranged by a friend, she returned to work. “Our clinics interact with a very vulnerable population,” she said, “and this is a critical time for them.”
While she pondered how her family would rebuild, the CEO was faced with another immediate crisis: the clinic’s shortage of supplies. Last month, CommuniCare got down to 19 COVID test kits on hand, and ran so low on swabs “that we were literally turning to our veterinary friends for reinforcements,” the doctor said. The clinic’s COVID test results, meanwhile, were taking nearly two weeks to be returned from an overwhelmed outside lab, rendering contact tracing almost useless.
Those situations have been addressed, at least temporarily, Marshall said. But although the West Coast is in the most dangerous time of year for wildfires, generally September to December, another complication for health providers lies on the horizon: flu season.
The Southern Hemisphere, whose influenza trends during our summer months typically predict what’s to come for the U.S., has had very little of the disease this year, presumably because of restricted travel, social distancing and face masks. But it’s too early to be sure what the U.S. flu season will entail.
“You can start to see some cases of the flu in late October,” said Marshall, “and the reality is that it’s going to carry a number of characteristics that could also be symptomatic of COVID. And nothing changes: You have to rule it out, just to eliminate the risk.”
This story was originally published by Kaiser Health News on September 16 2020. Read the original story here.