scientificamerican--2020-08-24--The Hidden Toll of Wildfires

The Hidden Toll of Wildfires

“ This is interesting .
Not too thick , ” said Jim Crawford , an atmospheric chemist wearing a motion-sickness patch behind his ear .
It was afternoon in late July 2019 , and Crawford was bearing down on a skein of wildfire smoke visible from the cockpit of a former commercial jet that NASA had retrofitted into an airborne laboratory .
In the cabin , 35 scientists and engineers were calibrating their instruments .
The mood was wired : Would their tools , most designed to measure urban pollutants , work in air thick with particulates ?
How would @ @ @ @ @ @ @ column ?
The DC-8 shuddered and jumped as it entered a plume lofted 12,000 feet high by a fire outside of Missoula , Mont .
“ Forty-five seconds , then turn it around , ” Crawford directed the pilots .
The turbulence was surprisingly mild , and he wanted to go back through it .
This was only the third flight in the aerial segment of FIREX-AQ , an ambitious three-year project led by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and NASA .
It is attempting to sniff out the precise chemical composition @ @ @ @ @ @ @ determine , among other things , when , and why , it is most dangerous for human health .
For six weeks last summer the DC-8 and a pair of Twin Otters similarly quilled with atmospheric-sampling instruments flew through more than 100 different columns .
They ranged from a bubble of smoke rising off a tiny agricultural burn in Kansas to a mushroom cloud that shot up 31,000 feet from the Williams Flats Fire in Washington State , a burn one scientist compared to a volcanic eruption .
Never before has biomass smoke @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Although fires contribute up to a third of all particles in the atmosphere , “ there are very few studies that examine the specific role of the different components of smoke on disease and the severity of the disease when people are exposed , ” said a director at the Environmental Protection Agency in 2018 .
We know that chronic exposure to fine particulate matter , which is in all smoke , can lead to heart and lung disease , irregular heartbeats and aggravated asthma , among other issues .
It was @ @ @ @ @ @ @ worldwide in 2016 .
Likewise , long-term exposure to ozone , a gas that can form via chemical reactions when smoke enters the atmosphere , is blamed for at least one million premature deaths a year .
What we lack is a fundamental understanding of how and when these toxic components and others form in different types of biomass smoke .
Currently air-quality regulators treat emissions from all biomass burns as the same , even though that is not the case .
By learning about these processes , the FIREX-AQ team hopes to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ so that coaches know better when to cancel soccer practice , hospitals can anticipate an influx of immunocompromised people and regulators can protect outdoor workers from dangerous exposure .
Their data could also help land managers light controlled burns , which mitigate the severity and health impacts of future wildfires .
Crawford checked his tablet , scrolling through real-time updates of the hundreds of particles and gases being sampled .
The last time he had flown in the DC-8 was to study urban pollutants in Seoul , South Korea .
Even in small @ @ @ @ @ @ @ pollution that is much worse than what he and his team were witnessing that day .
“ But how do all these fires add up ?
” he asked .
“ How much ozone do fires produce ?
What ’ s the chemistry for how it forms ?
And how do you regulate a natural phenomenon ?
” Carsten Warneke , a fellow principal investigator of FIREX-AQ , who is based out of NOAA ’ S Earth Systems Research Laboratory in Boulder , Colo. , explains that air-quality models treat wildfire smoke as @ @ @ @ @ @ @ completely different problem .
Some 350 miles to the south , on the Gowen Field Air National Guard Base in Boise , Idaho , Warneke and 50 more scientists were sifting through meteorological patterns , fuels , real-time satellite data and ongoing fire updates to determine which of the West ’ s wildfires met the most criteria for FIREX-AQ ’ s goals .
“ There are a lot of scientists , and they all want slightly different things , ” said Amber Soja , an associate research fellow at the National Institute of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the 400 researchers involved in FIREX-AQ on that day ’ s fire activity .
For today ’ s mission , the team had picked the North Hills Fire in Montana as the DC-8 taxied onto the runway for takeoff .
It had the most pronounced smoke column of the nine fires being considered .
At a relatively small 4,600 acres , the blaze was wholly unremarkable—and that is what made it scientifically alluring .
Although U.S. Forest Service firefighters were still working to control the flames , they granted the DC-8 permission to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ time and space , thereby capturing what was in the smoke and how it changed as it moved downwind , interacting with new conditions and environments .
After passing through the plume for the 16th time in an hour , Crawford received a message from Warneke at mission command .
It contained a satellite image of a smoke column shooting above the clouds just below California ’ s Mount Shasta , almost 800 miles to the southwest .
Warneke had drawn a circle around the plume and scrawled next to it in red @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ” FIREX-AQ , or Fire Influence on Regional to Global Environments and Air Qualilty , was born in Montana ’ s Fire Lab .
There NOAA research chemist Jim Roberts , who was part of the team that developed a technique for measuring atmospheric nitrogen during the ozone crisis of the 1970s , had grown interested in investigating the acids present in wildfire smoke .
In 2009 , while burning ponderosa pine branches and other fuel characteristic of the Western U.S. , he found a particularly noxious compound called isocyanic acid .
Regular @ @ @ @ @ @ @ as cigarettes and cooking fires , can cause cataracts , rheumatoid arthritis and heart disease .
Soon after , Roberts was in his office in Boulder , Colo. , when the most destructive wildfire in the state ’ s history broke out , burning tens of thousands of acres and destroying several hundred homes on the town ’ s outskirts .
Curious about whether his lab findings would hold up in the real world , Roberts dragged out an instrument that measures acids to test Boulder ’ s air .
He found the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in the atmosphere .
Before that , no one had thought to look for it .
“ I didn ’ t sleep for two nights , ” he says .
“ The biomass-burning community was completely unaware isocyanic acid was in smoke .
What else didn ’ t we know ?
” Generally speaking , air quality in U.S. cities has improved greatly since Congress passed the Clean Air Act in 1970 .
But when wildfires burn near urban areas , smoke undoes those gains .
In 2019 the top eight most polluted @ @ @ @ @ @ @ were all in the West .
By measure of PM 2.5—particulate matter smaller than 2.5 microns that can embed in human lungs and enter the bloodstream—23 of the top 25 cities were in the West or Alaska .
That trend is all but certain to hold : the Forest Service now anticipates a doubling of annual acreage burned by 2050 .
Chief among the culprits for this problem is climate change : the West is becoming warmer and drier .
In July 2019 climate modeler Park Williams of Columbia University published findings in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that California ’ s fivefold increase in acreage burned between 1972 and 2018 was very likely linked to a 1.4-degree Celsius increase in hot-day temperatures .
Anthropogenic warming , he says , is to blame .
Forest conditions also play a significant role in worsening fires .
After 100 years of aggressive suppression of fires that were essential for Western ecosystems , the density in many forests now exceeds their historic norms .
For example , in some parts of California ’ s Sierras there are 1,000 trees per acre where there were @ @ @ @ @ @ @ humans keep moving into fire-adapted biomes .
In the 1990s 30.8 million people in the U.S. lived next to or on lands that regularly burned ; 43.4 million do two decades later .
The deadly convergence of these trends was on full display in 2018 ’ s Camp Fire , a blaze that razed the 26,800-person town of Paradise , Calif. , burning 18,804 buildings and killing at least 85 people , most before the sun had fully risen .
About 4 percent of the entire globe burns every year , and increasing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
At the time of this writing , Australian bushfires that broke out at the end of 2019 had burned more than twice the area of California ’ s 2018 fires and the Amazon ’ s 2019 fires combined .
Although the total acreage that burns annually is shrinking as natural places are converted into ranches and cropland , climate change is now fostering blazes in environments that have no historical record of raging burns while intensifying fires in places that do .
In the summer of 2018 Northern Ireland saw unprecedented big @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in Arctic and sub-Arctic Siberia .
Fire scientist Stephen Pyne , a professor emeritus at Arizona State University , has dubbed this era the Pyrocene .
NOAA scientists did not come to wildfire smoke directly ; ignoring it just became impossible .
In the early 2000s , while studying haze transported to the Alaskan Arctic via Asia , as well as air quality outside of Northeastern cities , they were surprised to see the chemical footprints of wildfires stamped all over their data .
“ We ’ d been focused on urban pollution @ @ @ @ @ @ @ d fly through these urban areas and see all this stuff from wildfires , ” Roberts says .
He grew convinced that smoke and air quality deserved the full weight of NOAA ’ s research focus .
Then , as now , observational forecasts of fire emissions were unreliable .
In a 2008 article in the Journal of Applied Remote Sensing , a comparison of four fire-emissions models found that estimates of monthly contributions to atmospheric carbon could be off by a factor of 10 .
One problem was that North American fire-emissions @ @ @ @ @ @ @ just 39 different fire events—a paucity of data considering the variability in fires .
Their interest piqued , Roberts and Warneke , research partners at NOAA , called their long-time collaborator Bob Yokelson of the University of Montana , who has been studying wildfire smoke for almost 30 years .
A rangy former firefighter from Montana , Yokelson helped lead the initial version of FIREX-AQ .
Up until 20 years ago , he says , field research on wildfire smoke was done only by him and a few other college professors who rented @ @ @ @ @ @ @ instruments and tooled around the edges of smoke columns .
They were interested in the same aerosols , particulate matter and gases getting attention from FIREX-AQ , but their measurements were far coarser .
Yokelson was exaggerating the field ’ s simplicity , but the assets needed to run a comprehensive project had never been deployed .
It was simply way too expensive and risky .
“ We were flying blind into the future , ” Yokelson said .
After a string of historically severe smoke seasons clarified that the age of fire @ @ @ @ @ @ @ funding for major research campaigns followed .
In addition to the DC-8 , which could fly at high elevations and over a great range , the FIREX-AQ team outfitted nimble prop planes with air-quality sampling instruments to fly lower and closer to columns , as well as rural communities inundated with smoke .
They similarly outfitted trucks for sniffing smoke on the ground .
On the jet , they deployed lasers of different wavelengths to map a smoke column in three dimensions in real time ; there was an instrument to sense acetonitrile @ @ @ @ @ @ @ indicator species of biomass burning , while other sensors looked for black and brown carbon , submicron aerosol composition , and a long list of other components .
This compilation of tools would measure particles and gases in as many forms and sizes as the state-of-the-art technology could capture .
By determining at a finer resolution what is in smoke and the processes by which its nastier products form , air-quality forecasters could better predict the impacts of wildfire emissions on human health .
Knowing how smoke differs between types of fires could @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , specifically when it comes to lighting prescribed burns .
These controlled , lower-intensity fires mimic natural ones and are lit to reduce the amount of fuel available for future wildfires .
They are also notoriously hard to ignite for social , environmental and regulatory reasons .
The EPA stringently regulates smoke from prescribed fires , despite the fact that no field studies have demonstrated that emissions from lower-intensity burns are just as toxic as those from raging wild flames .
“ When it comes to smoke in the sky , it ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ later , ” Soja says .
She means that whether managers choose to ignite fires on their own terms or let nature decide when fire-adapted landscapes burn , the skies will be smoky .
Yet some kinds of smoke might be worse for human health than others .
“ We ’ ve got to get an understanding of emissions factors so that people can make better decisions in the field.
” In the fall of 2016 the FIREX-AQ team went to Montana ’ s Fire Lab to start peeling back the layers on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of smoke downwind and how it produced noxious aerosols and ozone , they had to understand its contents at the ignition point .
Maybe certain plants , when burned , created smoke with more ozone and PM 2.5 than others ?
The team collected ponderosa pines from Montana , lilac shrubs from California , oak from Arizona and 18 other groups of species regularly burned in the West .
They dried and weighed the plants , then spread them onto chicken wire woven underneath a massive ventilator hood .
They lit two fires @ @ @ @ @ @ @ burn where the rising smoke seemed viscous like lava and a hotter burn where the smoke stood up with the fire in salute .
What they found , surprisingly , was that the fire ’ s temperature dictated emissions far more than did the kind of plant that was burning .
Certain volatile organic compounds ( VOCs ) were emitted during low-temperature burns , whereas others showed up mostly during high-temperature burns .
The fire ’ s temperature could be used to predict about 80 percent of those emissions , results that were @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Physics .
For some of those burns , the researchers captured smoke samples and stuck them into a Teflon sack lit by ultraviolet lights to simulate sunlight .
They were interested in PM 2.5 , which is emitted by all fires .
Long-term exposure can be deadly , even when levels are below EPA limits .
In 2017 and 2018 , more than 10 million people in the West were exposed to levels of PM 2.5 that exceeded the EPA ’ s air-quality standards .
In 30 years that number is expected to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 2100 chronic inhalation of wildfire smoke is projected to kill 40,000 people annually in the U.S. alone .
In the sacks , the initial output of PM 2.5 dissipated quickly and particle levels decreased—as expected .
But in some experiments , after several hours certain chemicals began to condense .
Like beads of mercury pulling together , other particles settled on these growing surfaces until PM 2.5 levels that had dipped just hours before blossomed in a new form .
Warneke was not sure what process explained the re-formation of PM 2.5 , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ starting point .
It increased most often in the presence of catechol , a large molecule in a building block of wood that was emitted by smoldering fires .
Most intriguing about this discovery was the idea that if they linked a fire ’ s temperature to PM 2.5 production , it might then be possible to forecast a fire ’ s PM 2.5 output from satellites that already measure fire intensity .
He and Matt Coggon , a research scientist at NOAA , also found that catechol may play a key role @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Ozone decreases lung function after repeated exposure .
It is not a direct emission of wildfires ; rather it forms when nitrogen oxide , VOCs and sunlight mix in the right proportions .
There are always VOCs in smoke , and sunlight is a close associate of flames .
But nitrogen production in wildfires is nuanced .
Smoldering burns release ammonia , a nonreactive form of nitrogen , from plants .
Hot burns release nitrogen oxide , which is volatile .
“ The tricky thing is that the chemistry in a plume is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ It ’ ll transform even within an hour on big fires into something that is very different from what was emitted initially.
” The reasons for these shifts have been well understood for almost 20 years .
In big wildfires , nitrogen oxide released from plants by flames is entrained in smoke and wafted into the upper troposphere by the fire ’ s heat .
As it climbs , some of the compounds react with radicals until , after a cascade of reactions , what started as nitrogen oxide can become peroxyacetyl @ @ @ @ @ @ @ stable molecule when the temperatures are cool enough .
As long as the smoke continues to drift in the cooler temperatures of the upper troposphere , the nitrogen is locked up and the ozone production process is essentially frozen .
But when the smoke begins to sink again into the warmer temperatures at lower elevations , the PAN breaks down and nitrogen oxide returns .
Suddenly , hundreds or even thousands of miles downwind from the fire , ozone can form in volumes toxic to humans .
This helps to explain why , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ spike in Midwestern or even Eastern cities when plumes born in the West drift eastward .
Urban areas , already rich in nitrogen oxide from cars and industry running on fossil fuels , can jump way past their air-quality exceedance when wildfire emissions blow into town on a hot summer day .
These conditions gave Seattle the world ’ s worst air quality at several points in 2018 .
What Coggon and Warneke wanted to know is if there are other molecules emitted by fires that play a similar role as PAN .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ catechols , the precursors to nitroaromatics , which , oddly enough , are used to treat coughs .
At first it was not a particularly interesting find—just another molecule among the hundreds of VOCs they had identified .
But in the two years after the lab work , Coggon developed a chemical model that suggested nitroaromatics could play a key role in nitrogen ’ s life cycle and therefore in ozone ’ s formation .
“ When they were there , there was less ozone , ” he says .
After looking at @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the model runs , Coggon suspected wildfires should produce significant volumes of nitroaromatics .
These molecules had never been investigated in this context .
Thus , by modifying an existing tool , Warneke and Coggon developed a device to analyze the concentration of molecules in the air every tenth of a second .
Called a proton-transfer-reaction mass spectrometer and small enough to fit in a rack on the DC-8 , this was the instrument that tipped Coggon off to something remarkable during the flight .
“ We ’ re getting into it !
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ !
” Crawford said over the plane ’ s communication system as the DC-8 began to shake and beep .
An hour and a half after leaving the North Hills Fire in Montana , the DC-8 , pitched into a steep descent , had arrived at “ GO HERE NOW ” : the 14,000-acre Tucker Fire in the shadow of Mount Shasta .
When the plane entered the plume , the light went orange and the smell of wood smoke filled the cabin .
Coggon sat behind the plane ’ s left wing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the spectrometer .
The chart measured the molecular composition of hundreds of different VOCs , but Coggon ’ s eyes were fixed on catechol , which was now at very high volumes and ticking down rapidly .
“ This is even more stuff than we saw two days ago !
” he said .
The spectrometer could not detect any nitroaromatics—just their precursor compounds .
But Coggon had his suspicions about where the catechol was going .
Suddenly , he was on his feet , tottering between quakes of turbulence to Wyatt Brown @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of the way up the cabin .
Brown was running an instrument that could detect what Coggon ’ s could not : submicron aerosols such as nitroaromatics .
“ Are you seeing it ?
” Coggon asked .
Brown pointed to the screen—nitrocatechols , a type of nitroaromatic , had been unambiguously detected .
Coggon ’ s reaction was too colorful to print .
Although he was witnessing real-world confirmation of the chemistry he had seen in the models , the troves of novel data were just the start of a knotty process @ @ @ @ @ @ @ two years and further studies to determine whether nitrocatechol was a nitrogen reservoir that , like PAN , locked up the element temporarily and delayed ozone production , or whether it sequestered it permanently , halting the formation of ozone .
Either theory had potentially profound implications for forecasting ozone production from smoke and therefore smoke ’ s impact on people .
Over the course of the campaign , such riddles grew common .
There was the house fire they had accidentally measured while trying to sample biomass burns in Kansas , a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ particularly useful considering the increasing regularity with which wildfires burn human infrastructure .
There was the low-intensity controlled fire in Florida ’ s pines that produced gluts of ozone almost immediately after ignition , in contrast to a high-intensity wildfire in Washington that appeared to produce almost none .
Warneke guessed , and hoped the data would bear out , that the variability was from the Florida fire burning nitrogen-rich fuels on a bright sunny day with low smoke , whereas in Washington , where the smoke reached 31,000 feet , chemical reactions @ @ @ @ @ @ @ dense for sunlight to penetrate .
Perhaps most vexing of all was the secondary formation of PM 2.5 .
On several fires they observed the volume of PM 2.5 dipping before increasing again .
Were the same processes they observed in the lab also at work in nature ?
After an hour of crosshatching the Tucker Fire ’ s plume , the sun dipped behind the Pacific Ocean .
Out the jet ’ s window , the fire was still visible on the ground , a long orange ribbon snaking through the blackness @ @ @ @ @ @ @ fuel .
The pilots banked a turn east toward Boise , and Crawford finally left the cockpit .
“ As an individual emissions event , this was a drop in the bucket , ” he said .
“ But the details we can extrapolate from here are going to be really valuable.
” Soon the scientists would turn to the less thrilling tasks of organizing the data and preparing papers that might tune modeling and forecasting tools focused on health .
On the distant horizon those tools could “ ideally ease regulations to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ fires , ” Soja explained .
But that night , awash in the smell of smoke , the scientists shook hands and exchanged congratulations .
Somebody joked that Warneke had better have a Gatorade bath ready for the team when they landed .

“This is interesting. Not too thick,” said Jim Crawford, an atmospheric chemist wearing a motion-sickness patch behind his ear. It was afternoon in late July 2019, and Crawford was bearing down on a skein of wildfire smoke visible from the cockpit of a former commercial jet that NASA had retrofitted into an airborne laboratory. In the cabin, 35 scientists and engineers were calibrating their instruments. The mood was wired: Would their tools, most designed to measure urban pollutants, work in air thick with particulates? How would the 50-year-old plane respond in a smoke column? The DC-8 shuddered and jumped as it entered a plume lofted 12,000 feet high by a fire outside of Missoula, Mont. “Forty-five seconds, then turn it around,” Crawford directed the pilots. The turbulence was surprisingly mild, and he wanted to go back through it.
This was only the third flight in the aerial segment of FIREX-AQ, an ambitious three-year project led by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and NASA. It is attempting to sniff out the precise chemical composition of smoke emitted from biomass burns and determine, among other things, when, and why, it is most dangerous for human health. For six weeks last summer the DC-8 and a pair of Twin Otters similarly quilled with atmospheric-sampling instruments flew through more than 100 different columns. They ranged from a bubble of smoke rising off a tiny agricultural burn in Kansas to a mushroom cloud that shot up 31,000 feet from the Williams Flats Fire in Washington State, a burn one scientist compared to a volcanic eruption. Never before has biomass smoke been studied in such detail and range. Although fires contribute up to a third of all particles in the atmosphere, “there are very few studies that examine the specific role of the different components of smoke on disease and the severity of the disease when people are exposed,” said a director at the Environmental Protection Agency in 2018.
We know that chronic exposure to fine particulate matter, which is in all smoke, can lead to heart and lung disease, irregular heartbeats and aggravated asthma, among other issues. It was estimated to cause 4.2 million premature deaths worldwide in 2016. Likewise, long-term exposure to ozone, a gas that can form via chemical reactions when smoke enters the atmosphere, is blamed for at least one million premature deaths a year. What we lack is a fundamental understanding of how and when these toxic components and others form in different types of biomass smoke. Currently air-quality regulators treat emissions from all biomass burns as the same, even though that is not the case. By learning about these processes, the FIREX-AQ team hopes to improve the accuracy of wildfire-emissions forecasts, so that coaches know better when to cancel soccer practice, hospitals can anticipate an influx of immunocompromised people and regulators can protect outdoor workers from dangerous exposure. Their data could also help land managers light controlled burns, which mitigate the severity and health impacts of future wildfires.
Crawford checked his tablet, scrolling through real-time updates of the hundreds of particles and gases being sampled. The last time he had flown in the DC-8 was to study urban pollutants in Seoul, South Korea. Even in small cities, he said, researchers see pollution that is much worse than what he and his team were witnessing that day. “But how do all these fires add up?” he asked. “How much ozone do fires produce? What’s the chemistry for how it forms? And how do you regulate a natural phenomenon?” Carsten Warneke, a fellow principal investigator of FIREX-AQ, who is based out of NOAA’S Earth Systems Research Laboratory in Boulder, Colo., explains that air-quality models treat wildfire smoke as a smog event when it is a completely different problem.
Some 350 miles to the south, on the Gowen Field Air National Guard Base in Boise, Idaho, Warneke and 50 more scientists were sifting through meteorological patterns, fuels, real-time satellite data and ongoing fire updates to determine which of the West’s wildfires met the most criteria for FIREX-AQ’s goals. “There are a lot of scientists, and they all want slightly different things,” said Amber Soja, an associate research fellow at the National Institute of Aerospace, who was responsible for briefing the 400 researchers involved in FIREX-AQ on that day’s fire activity.
For today’s mission, the team had picked the North Hills Fire in Montana as the DC-8 taxied onto the runway for takeoff. It had the most pronounced smoke column of the nine fires being considered. At a relatively small 4,600 acres, the blaze was wholly unremarkable—and that is what made it scientifically alluring. Although U.S. Forest Service firefighters were still working to control the flames, they granted the DC-8 permission to sample the plume at different points in time and space, thereby capturing what was in the smoke and how it changed as it moved downwind, interacting with new conditions and environments.
After passing through the plume for the 16th time in an hour, Crawford received a message from Warneke at mission command. It contained a satellite image of a smoke column shooting above the clouds just below California’s Mount Shasta, almost 800 miles to the southwest. Warneke had drawn a circle around the plume and scrawled next to it in red ink, “GO HERE NOW!”
An Unprecedented Project
FIREX-AQ, or Fire Influence on Regional to Global Environments and Air Qualilty, was born in Montana’s Fire Lab. There NOAA research chemist Jim Roberts, who was part of the team that developed a technique for measuring atmospheric nitrogen during the ozone crisis of the 1970s, had grown interested in investigating the acids present in wildfire smoke. In 2009, while burning ponderosa pine branches and other fuel characteristic of the Western U.S., he found a particularly noxious compound called isocyanic acid. Regular exposure in humans, from sources such as cigarettes and cooking fires, can cause cataracts, rheumatoid arthritis and heart disease. Soon after, Roberts was in his office in Boulder, Colo., when the most destructive wildfire in the state’s history broke out, burning tens of thousands of acres and destroying several hundred homes on the town’s outskirts.
Curious about whether his lab findings would hold up in the real world, Roberts dragged out an instrument that measures acids to test Boulder’s air. He found the highest concentration of isocyanic acid ever measured in the atmosphere. Before that, no one had thought to look for it. “I didn’t sleep for two nights,” he says. “The biomass-burning community was completely unaware isocyanic acid was in smoke. What else didn’t we know?”
Generally speaking, air quality in U.S. cities has improved greatly since Congress passed the Clean Air Act in 1970. But when wildfires burn near urban areas, smoke undoes those gains. In 2019 the top eight most polluted cities in America by measure of ozone were all in the West. By measure of PM 2.5—particulate matter smaller than 2.5 microns that can embed in human lungs and enter the bloodstream—23 of the top 25 cities were in the West or Alaska. That trend is all but certain to hold: the Forest Service now anticipates a doubling of annual acreage burned by 2050.
Chief among the culprits for this problem is climate change: the West is becoming warmer and drier. In July 2019 climate modeler Park Williams of Columbia University published findings in the journal Earth’s Future showing that California’s fivefold increase in acreage burned between 1972 and 2018 was very likely linked to a 1.4-degree Celsius increase in hot-day temperatures. Anthropogenic warming, he says, is to blame.
Forest conditions also play a significant role in worsening fires. After 100 years of aggressive suppression of fires that were essential for Western ecosystems, the density in many forests now exceeds their historic norms. For example, in some parts of California’s Sierras there are 1,000 trees per acre where there were once between 50 and 70. Meanwhile humans keep moving into fire-adapted biomes. In the 1990s 30.8 million people in the U.S. lived next to or on lands that regularly burned; 43.4 million do two decades later. The deadly convergence of these trends was on full display in 2018’s Camp Fire, a blaze that razed the 26,800-person town of Paradise, Calif., burning 18,804 buildings and killing at least 85 people, most before the sun had fully risen.
About 4 percent of the entire globe burns every year, and increasing destructiveness is hardly an American problem alone. At the time of this writing, Australian bushfires that broke out at the end of 2019 had burned more than twice the area of California’s 2018 fires and the Amazon’s 2019 fires combined. Although the total acreage that burns annually is shrinking as natural places are converted into ranches and cropland, climate change is now fostering blazes in environments that have no historical record of raging burns while intensifying fires in places that do. In the summer of 2018 Northern Ireland saw unprecedented big fires. So did 7.4 million acres in Arctic and sub-Arctic Siberia. Fire scientist Stephen Pyne, a professor emeritus at Arizona State University, has dubbed this era the Pyrocene.
NOAA scientists did not come to wildfire smoke directly; ignoring it just became impossible. In the early 2000s, while studying haze transported to the Alaskan Arctic via Asia, as well as air quality outside of Northeastern cities, they were surprised to see the chemical footprints of wildfires stamped all over their data. “We’d been focused on urban pollution over the years, but we’d fly through these urban areas and see all this stuff from wildfires,” Roberts says. He grew convinced that smoke and air quality deserved the full weight of NOAA’s research focus. Then, as now, observational forecasts of fire emissions were unreliable. In a 2008 article in the Journal of Applied Remote Sensing, a comparison of four fire-emissions models found that estimates of monthly contributions to atmospheric carbon could be off by a factor of 10. One problem was that North American fire-emissions models were based on data collected from just 39 different fire events—a paucity of data considering the variability in fires.
Their interest piqued, Roberts and Warneke, research partners at NOAA, called their long-time collaborator Bob Yokelson of the University of Montana, who has been studying wildfire smoke for almost 30 years. A rangy former firefighter from Montana, Yokelson helped lead the initial version of FIREX-AQ. Up until 20 years ago, he says, field research on wildfire smoke was done only by him and a few other college professors who rented a Twin Otter, loaded it with instruments and tooled around the edges of smoke columns. They were interested in the same aerosols, particulate matter and gases getting attention from FIREX-AQ, but their measurements were far coarser. Yokelson was exaggerating the field’s simplicity, but the assets needed to run a comprehensive project had never been deployed. It was simply way too expensive and risky. “We were flying blind into the future,” Yokelson said.
After a string of historically severe smoke seasons clarified that the age of fire had arrived, millions of dollars in funding for major research campaigns followed. In addition to the DC-8, which could fly at high elevations and over a great range, the FIREX-AQ team outfitted nimble prop planes with air-quality sampling instruments to fly lower and closer to columns, as well as rural communities inundated with smoke. They similarly outfitted trucks for sniffing smoke on the ground. On the jet, they deployed lasers of different wavelengths to map a smoke column in three dimensions in real time; there was an instrument to sense acetonitrile, a chemical known to be an indicator species of biomass burning, while other sensors looked for black and brown carbon, submicron aerosol composition, and a long list of other components. This compilation of tools would measure particles and gases in as many forms and sizes as the state-of-the-art technology could capture.
By determining at a finer resolution what is in smoke and the processes by which its nastier products form, air-quality forecasters could better predict the impacts of wildfire emissions on human health. Knowing how smoke differs between types of fires could also ease the burden of fire management, specifically when it comes to lighting prescribed burns. These controlled, lower-intensity fires mimic natural ones and are lit to reduce the amount of fuel available for future wildfires. They are also notoriously hard to ignite for social, environmental and regulatory reasons. The EPA stringently regulates smoke from prescribed fires, despite the fact that no field studies have demonstrated that emissions from lower-intensity burns are just as toxic as those from raging wild flames.
“When it comes to smoke in the sky, it’s pay me now or pay me later,” Soja says. She means that whether managers choose to ignite fires on their own terms or let nature decide when fire-adapted landscapes burn, the skies will be smoky. Yet some kinds of smoke might be worse for human health than others. “We’ve got to get an understanding of emissions factors so that people can make better decisions in the field.”
The Variability of VOCs
In the fall of 2016 the FIREX-AQ team went to Montana’s Fire Lab to start peeling back the layers on emissions. To figure out what became of smoke downwind and how it produced noxious aerosols and ozone, they had to understand its contents at the ignition point. Maybe certain plants, when burned, created smoke with more ozone and PM 2.5 than others?
The team collected ponderosa pines from Montana, lilac shrubs from California, oak from Arizona and 18 other groups of species regularly burned in the West. They dried and weighed the plants, then spread them onto chicken wire woven underneath a massive ventilator hood. They lit two fires with each fuel type: a smoldering burn where the rising smoke seemed viscous like lava and a hotter burn where the smoke stood up with the fire in salute.
What they found, surprisingly, was that the fire’s temperature dictated emissions far more than did the kind of plant that was burning. Certain volatile organic compounds (VOCs) were emitted during low-temperature burns, whereas others showed up mostly during high-temperature burns. The fire’s temperature could be used to predict about 80 percent of those emissions, results that were published in 2018 in Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics.
For some of those burns, the researchers captured smoke samples and stuck them into a Teflon sack lit by ultraviolet lights to simulate sunlight. They were interested in PM 2.5, which is emitted by all fires. Long-term exposure can be deadly, even when levels are below EPA limits. In 2017 and 2018, more than 10 million people in the West were exposed to levels of PM 2.5 that exceeded the EPA’s air-quality standards. In 30 years that number is expected to be closer to 82 million. By 2100 chronic inhalation of wildfire smoke is projected to kill 40,000 people annually in the U.S. alone.
In the sacks, the initial output of PM 2.5 dissipated quickly and particle levels decreased—as expected. But in some experiments, after several hours certain chemicals began to condense. Like beads of mercury pulling together, other particles settled on these growing surfaces until PM 2.5 levels that had dipped just hours before blossomed in a new form. Warneke was not sure what process explained the re-formation of PM 2.5, but he thought he had found a starting point. It increased most often in the presence of catechol, a large molecule in a building block of wood that was emitted by smoldering fires. Most intriguing about this discovery was the idea that if they linked a fire’s temperature to PM 2.5 production, it might then be possible to forecast a fire’s PM 2.5 output from satellites that already measure fire intensity. He and Matt Coggon, a research scientist at NOAA, also found that catechol may play a key role in ozone formation related to wildfires.
Ozone decreases lung function after repeated exposure. It is not a direct emission of wildfires; rather it forms when nitrogen oxide, VOCs and sunlight mix in the right proportions. There are always VOCs in smoke, and sunlight is a close associate of flames. But nitrogen production in wildfires is nuanced. Smoldering burns release ammonia, a nonreactive form of nitrogen, from plants. Hot burns release nitrogen oxide, which is volatile. “The tricky thing is that the chemistry in a plume is pretty hot,” Coggon says. “It’ll transform even within an hour on big fires into something that is very different from what was emitted initially.”
The reasons for these shifts have been well understood for almost 20 years. In big wildfires, nitrogen oxide released from plants by flames is entrained in smoke and wafted into the upper troposphere by the fire’s heat. As it climbs, some of the compounds react with radicals until, after a cascade of reactions, what started as nitrogen oxide can become peroxyacetyl nitrate (PAN), a relatively stable molecule when the temperatures are cool enough. As long as the smoke continues to drift in the cooler temperatures of the upper troposphere, the nitrogen is locked up and the ozone production process is essentially frozen.
But when the smoke begins to sink again into the warmer temperatures at lower elevations, the PAN breaks down and nitrogen oxide returns. Suddenly, hundreds or even thousands of miles downwind from the fire, ozone can form in volumes toxic to humans. This helps to explain why, during certain wildfire events, ozone levels spike in Midwestern or even Eastern cities when plumes born in the West drift eastward. Urban areas, already rich in nitrogen oxide from cars and industry running on fossil fuels, can jump way past their air-quality exceedance when wildfire emissions blow into town on a hot summer day. These conditions gave Seattle the world’s worst air quality at several points in 2018.
What Coggon and Warneke wanted to know is if there are other molecules emitted by fires that play a similar role as PAN. During their lab studies, they found catechols, the precursors to nitroaromatics, which, oddly enough, are used to treat coughs. At first it was not a particularly interesting find—just another molecule among the hundreds of VOCs they had identified. But in the two years after the lab work, Coggon developed a chemical model that suggested nitroaromatics could play a key role in nitrogen’s life cycle and therefore in ozone’s formation. “When they were there, there was less ozone,” he says.
After looking at what he called back-of-the-envelope calculations based on the model runs, Coggon suspected wildfires should produce significant volumes of nitroaromatics. These molecules had never been investigated in this context. Thus, by modifying an existing tool, Warneke and Coggon developed a device to analyze the concentration of molecules in the air every tenth of a second. Called a proton-transfer-reaction mass spectrometer and small enough to fit in a rack on the DC-8, this was the instrument that tipped Coggon off to something remarkable during the flight.
Signals in the Smoke
“We’re getting into it! We’re getting into it now!” Crawford said over the plane’s communication system as the DC-8 began to shake and beep. An hour and a half after leaving the North Hills Fire in Montana, the DC-8, pitched into a steep descent, had arrived at “GO HERE NOW”: the 14,000-acre Tucker Fire in the shadow of Mount Shasta. When the plane entered the plume, the light went orange and the smell of wood smoke filled the cabin.
Coggon sat behind the plane’s left wing staring at a screen with data from the spectrometer. The chart measured the molecular composition of hundreds of different VOCs, but Coggon’s eyes were fixed on catechol, which was now at very high volumes and ticking down rapidly. “This is even more stuff than we saw two days ago!” he said. The spectrometer could not detect any nitroaromatics—just their precursor compounds. But Coggon had his suspicions about where the catechol was going. Suddenly, he was on his feet, tottering between quakes of turbulence to Wyatt Brown, a graduate student about a third of the way up the cabin. Brown was running an instrument that could detect what Coggon’s could not: submicron aerosols such as nitroaromatics. “Are you seeing it?” Coggon asked. Brown pointed to the screen—nitrocatechols, a type of nitroaromatic, had been unambiguously detected.
Coggon’s reaction was too colorful to print. Although he was witnessing real-world confirmation of the chemistry he had seen in the models, the troves of novel data were just the start of a knotty process. Coggon later guessed it would take two years and further studies to determine whether nitrocatechol was a nitrogen reservoir that, like PAN, locked up the element temporarily and delayed ozone production, or whether it sequestered it permanently, halting the formation of ozone. Either theory had potentially profound implications for forecasting ozone production from smoke and therefore smoke’s impact on people.
Over the course of the campaign, such riddles grew common. There was the house fire they had accidentally measured while trying to sample biomass burns in Kansas, a case study that may end up being particularly useful considering the increasing regularity with which wildfires burn human infrastructure. There was the low-intensity controlled fire in Florida’s pines that produced gluts of ozone almost immediately after ignition, in contrast to a high-intensity wildfire in Washington that appeared to produce almost none. Warneke guessed, and hoped the data would bear out, that the variability was from the Florida fire burning nitrogen-rich fuels on a bright sunny day with low smoke, whereas in Washington, where the smoke reached 31,000 feet, chemical reactions had been prevented by a column too dense for sunlight to penetrate. Perhaps most vexing of all was the secondary formation of PM 2.5. On several fires they observed the volume of PM 2.5 dipping before increasing again. Were the same processes they observed in the lab also at work in nature?
After an hour of crosshatching the Tucker Fire’s plume, the sun dipped behind the Pacific Ocean. Out the jet’s window, the fire was still visible on the ground, a long orange ribbon snaking through the blackness. The DC-8 was running low on fuel. The pilots banked a turn east toward Boise, and Crawford finally left the cockpit. “As an individual emissions event, this was a drop in the bucket,” he said. “But the details we can extrapolate from here are going to be really valuable.”
Soon the scientists would turn to the less thrilling tasks of organizing the data and preparing papers that might tune modeling and forecasting tools focused on health. On the distant horizon those tools could “ideally ease regulations to make it easier to light more prescribed fires,” Soja explained. But that night, awash in the smell of smoke, the scientists shook hands and exchanged congratulations. Somebody joked that Warneke had better have a Gatorade bath ready for the team when they landed.


scientificamerican--2020-08-24--How We Can Use the CITES Wildlife Trade Agreement to Help Prevent Pandemics

In reaction to the global COVID-19 pandemic , attention has focused on the potential role of the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora ( CITES ) to further regulate—or ban—various form of the wildlife trade .
Banning the wild animal trade , particularly for human consumption , means stopping the movement of some zoonotic diseases—infections that can be transmitted from animals to humans .
There have also been suggestions that the World Health Organization ( WHO ) , the United Nations ’ Food and Agriculture Organization ( FAO ) , or the World Organization @ @ @ @ @ @ @ be instructed by governments to collaborate to prevent future zoonotic epidemics and pandemics .
Other options include a protocol to the Convention on Biological Diversity ( an umbrella treaty , adhered to by all but one party to CITES ) or a protocol under the U.N. General Assembly .
But with little experience dealing with transport of terrestrial wild animals , these bodies simply lack the expertise and infrastructure needed to regulate the international trade of wild animals .
Still others have suggested that a new global treaty could be negotiated to focus @ @ @ @ @ @ @ While we believe that the ideal approach to minimize the risk of another animal-origin pandemic would be the creation of a global One Health agreement , to comprehensively address human , veterinary and wildlife health issues at local , national and international levels , we recognize that some proposed immediate measures are focused on using CITES and its existing infrastructure .
So , can CITES—a treaty focused on the conservation of fauna and flora through the regulation of international trade—be used to regulate the trade in wild animals to protect human health ?
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ or non-role of CITES in managing the international wildlife trade to minimize zoonotic disease transmission risk .
Some discourage any attempt to use CITES in this area , while others argue that CITES can evolve into an appropriate mechanism .
One thing is certain : CITES has a global mandate , with 183 signatory governments , 45 years of experience regulating international wildlife trade , and a global system for monitoring and recording trade , and for promoting efforts to combat trafficking ; this mandate is binding on all of its signatory parties @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are unparalleled globally .
Neither the text of CITES nor any of the interpretive documents agreed by the signatory countries over the past 45 years has any direct relation to zoonotic disease issues .
CITES regulates international trade in wildlife , but it only does so for the reasons of species conservation and ensuring the legality of the specimens being traded .
Nowhere in the text of the convention are parties obliged to restrict trade for any purpose other than “ for the protection of certain species of wild fauna and flora against @ @ @ @ @ @ @ with the unequivocal limitations of its text , CITES ’ requirements and authorities can not be adopted outright to regulate or ban trade in animals on the grounds that they pose a risk to human health , such as zoonotic disease transfer .
Some CITES analysts have proposed that the treaty should be amended to include new language in the convention text which would expand its remit to include the regulation of trade in animals presenting a risk of zoonotic disease transfer .
However , there are widespread concerns that opening the original @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a flood of additional proposed amendments with language that could undermine the current interpretation , implementation , enforcement and effectiveness of CITES .
If adoption and amendments are off the table , that leaves one good remaining option to use CITES to prevent zoonotic disease transfer : adaptation .
The best way to adapt CITES to address zoonotic disease risk is through an addendum to the treaty itself : additive text covering zoonotic diseases and international trade .
Such an addendum could be crafted to functionally override CITES ’ original language and impose @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to regulate wildlife trade specifically to mitigate the risks of spreading zoonoses through international trade .
The original text of CITES would remain safely shielded from deleterious amendments , while the addendum could provide a specific mandate to address the commercial international trade in specimens with a focus on the risk of zoonotic diseases .
The risk of zoonoses ( including spillover , recombinations and transmission ) is not spread evenly across the spectrum of wild animal trade ; freshwater mussel shells , used to seed oysters in the pearl industry , or @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , do not carry the same risk as , say , live bats , primates , rodents or birds .
The ears and eyes of epidemiologists and public health officials perk up if we ’ re talking about live mammals and birds , and even reptiles and amphibians , which are known or presumed to have been involved in the origin and spread of diseases as diverse and severe as brucellosis , COVID-19 , cryptosporidiosis , Ebola , E. coli , MERS , Nipah Virus , salmonella , SARS and West Nile Virus @ @ @ @ @ @ @ wild animal trade could be done in an addendum based on “ reverse listing ” —an approach in which any live wild animal ( or potentially infectious animal tissue ) can not be traded internationally , until specifically determined to be of low zoonotic disease risk .
Under a reverse-listing system all wild animal species or body parts are presumed high-risk until it is determined that they are safe to trade .
Of course , the listing of “ all ” species could be limited to mammals and birds or any other specific @ @ @ @ @ @ @ groups or specific categories of products , parts or derivatives in trade ; or it could refer to live animals only .
The addendum should not be used to eliminate or obstruct low-risk trade .
And for “ cleared species ” or products and groups of animals not included in an addendum , the safeguards in the original CITES treaty against overexploitation would remain applicable .
Whether changes to CITES to address the international trade in wild animals to prevent zoonotic epidemics and pandemics could be made is impossible to know until governments @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the long overdue conversation about the necessary steps to alleviate the risk of zoonotic disease transfer and emergence .
Whether one supports the precautionary principle or the concept of sustainable utilization , it is no longer tenable to ignore the third leg of the stool in this debate—the control of zoonotic disease emergence and transfer , potentially leading to another pandemic .
Ideally , a new international treaty or protocol could be developed to address zoonotic disease risk and could be so broad as to also cover domestic animals , which are essentially @ @ @ @ @ @ @ which also pose a high zoonotic risk when sold live and slaughtered on-site in large commercial food markets ) .
But drawing up and ratifying such a new treaty could take far too long to prevent the next pandemic .
The most significant reason why CITES is better positioned to address high zoonotic-risk wild animal trade than other existing mechanisms is its 45 years ’ maturity of architecture , processes , infrastructure , expertise and experience regulating and enforcing international wildlife trade standards .
The refined global implementation system for CITES would give @ @ @ @ @ @ @ head start in implementing any new protocols to combat the transfer of zoonotic diseases .
Leaving CITES out of the solution means abandoning the only global system of wildlife trade regulation and enforcement in existence , and that would be a loss not easily or quickly replaced .

In reaction to the global COVID-19 pandemic, attention has focused on the potential role of the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora (CITES) to further regulate—or ban—various form of the wildlife trade. Banning the wild animal trade, particularly for human consumption, means stopping the movement of some zoonotic diseases—infections that can be transmitted from animals to humans.
There have also been suggestions that the World Health Organization (WHO), the United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), or the World Organization for Animal Health (OIE) could be instructed by governments to collaborate to prevent future zoonotic epidemics and pandemics. Other options include a protocol to the Convention on Biological Diversity (an umbrella treaty, adhered to by all but one party to CITES) or a protocol under the U.N. General Assembly. But with little experience dealing with transport of terrestrial wild animals, these bodies simply lack the expertise and infrastructure needed to regulate the international trade of wild animals.
Still others have suggested that a new global treaty could be negotiated to focus specifically on preventing another zoonotic pandemic. While we believe that the ideal approach to minimize the risk of another animal-origin pandemic would be the creation of a global One Health agreement, to comprehensively address human, veterinary and wildlife health issues at local, national and international levels, we recognize that some proposed immediate measures are focused on using CITES and its existing infrastructure.
So, can CITES—a treaty focused on the conservation of fauna and flora through the regulation of international trade—be used to regulate the trade in wild animals to protect human health? Many have weighed in on the role or non-role of CITES in managing the international wildlife trade to minimize zoonotic disease transmission risk. Some discourage any attempt to use CITES in this area, while others argue that CITES can evolve into an appropriate mechanism.
One thing is certain: CITES has a global mandate, with 183 signatory governments, 45 years of experience regulating international wildlife trade, and a global system for monitoring and recording trade, and for promoting efforts to combat trafficking; this mandate is binding on all of its signatory parties. CITES infrastructure, expertise and reach are unparalleled globally. Neither the text of CITES nor any of the interpretive documents agreed by the signatory countries over the past 45 years has any direct relation to zoonotic disease issues. CITES regulates international trade in wildlife, but it only does so for the reasons of species conservation and ensuring the legality of the specimens being traded.
Nowhere in the text of the convention are parties obliged to restrict trade for any purpose other than “for the protection of certain species of wild fauna and flora against over-exploitation through international trade.” In keeping with the unequivocal limitations of its text, CITES’ requirements and authorities cannot be adopted outright to regulate or ban trade in animals on the grounds that they pose a risk to human health, such as zoonotic disease transfer.
Some CITES analysts have proposed that the treaty should be amended to include new language in the convention text which would expand its remit to include the regulation of trade in animals presenting a risk of zoonotic disease transfer. However, there are widespread concerns that opening the original text of CITES to change could release a flood of additional proposed amendments with language that could undermine the current interpretation, implementation, enforcement and effectiveness of CITES.
If adoption and amendments are off the table, that leaves one good remaining option to use CITES to prevent zoonotic disease transfer: adaptation. The best way to adapt CITES to address zoonotic disease risk is through an addendum to the treaty itself: additive text covering zoonotic diseases and international trade.
Such an addendum could be crafted to functionally override CITES’ original language and impose a new requirement on CITES’ parties to regulate wildlife trade specifically to mitigate the risks of spreading zoonoses through international trade. The original text of CITES would remain safely shielded from deleterious amendments, while the addendum could provide a specific mandate to address the commercial international trade in specimens with a focus on the risk of zoonotic diseases.
The risk of zoonoses (including spillover, recombinations and transmission) is not spread evenly across the spectrum of wild animal trade; freshwater mussel shells, used to seed oysters in the pearl industry, or alligator skins destined for luxury leather products, do not carry the same risk as, say, live bats, primates, rodents or birds.
The ears and eyes of epidemiologists and public health officials perk up if we’re talking about live mammals and birds, and even reptiles and amphibians, which are known or presumed to have been involved in the origin and spread of diseases as diverse and severe as brucellosis, COVID-19, cryptosporidiosis, Ebola, E. coli, MERS, Nipah Virus, salmonella, SARS and West Nile Virus.
Mechanically, addressing zoonotic risk in wild animal trade could be done in an addendum based on “reverse listing”—an approach in which any live wild animal (or potentially infectious animal tissue) cannot be traded internationally, until specifically determined to be of low zoonotic disease risk. Under a reverse-listing system all wild animal species or body parts are presumed high-risk until it is determined that they are safe to trade. Of course, the listing of “all” species could be limited to mammals and birds or any other specific group of animals, while exempting other groups or specific categories of products, parts or derivatives in trade; or it could refer to live animals only. The addendum should not be used to eliminate or obstruct low-risk trade. And for “cleared species” or products and groups of animals not included in an addendum, the safeguards in the original CITES treaty against overexploitation would remain applicable.
Whether changes to CITES to address the international trade in wild animals to prevent zoonotic epidemics and pandemics could be made is impossible to know until governments, intergovernmental organizations and civil society begin the long overdue conversation about the necessary steps to alleviate the risk of zoonotic disease transfer and emergence.
Whether one supports the precautionary principle or the concept of sustainable utilization, it is no longer tenable to ignore the third leg of the stool in this debate—the control of zoonotic disease emergence and transfer, potentially leading to another pandemic.
Ideally, a new international treaty or protocol could be developed to address zoonotic disease risk and could be so broad as to also cover domestic animals, which are essentially excluded from CITES’ mandate (and which also pose a high zoonotic risk when sold live and slaughtered on-site in large commercial food markets). But drawing up and ratifying such a new treaty could take far too long to prevent the next pandemic.
The most significant reason why CITES is better positioned to address high zoonotic-risk wild animal trade than other existing mechanisms is its 45 years’ maturity of architecture, processes, infrastructure, expertise and experience regulating and enforcing international wildlife trade standards. The refined global implementation system for CITES would give the nations of the world a huge head start in implementing any new protocols to combat the transfer of zoonotic diseases. Leaving CITES out of the solution means abandoning the only global system of wildlife trade regulation and enforcement in existence, and that would be a loss not easily or quickly replaced.


scientificamerican--2020-08-24--Fast-Moving California Wildfires Boosted by Climate Change

Firefighters battled nearly two dozen wildfires in California yesterday after a week of raging blazes blackened more than 1 million acres across the state .
The fast-moving fires , which are seen by many scientists as a sign of climate change , have killed five people , destroyed more than 1,000 structures and forced thousands to flee .
More than 238,000 people either evacuated or were ready to go as more thunderstorms threatened to light new fires yesterday afternoon , according to officials .
Still-active fires are affecting at least 23 counties in Northern California , stretching from Butte to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ among the largest in state history .
The LNU Lightning Complex Fire , a group of fires centered in Napa and Sonoma counties , has grown into the second-largest blaze ever seen in California .
The SCU Lightning Complex Fire , a cluster of blazes in Santa Clara , Alameda and nearby counties , is the third-largest .
Altogether , the fires have burned an area the size of Rhode Island .
`` The scope [ of the damage ] is absolutely astonishing , '' said Daniel Swain , a climate scientist at @ @ @ @ @ @ @ impress on people just how vast the acreage burned is , especially considering there were no strong offshore winds '' to drive the spread .
President Trump on Saturday issued a major disaster declaration to fulfill a request by Gov .
Gavin Newsom ( D ) to bolster the state 's emergency resources .
Meanwhile , the National Weather Service issued a red flag warning for more thunderstorms and lightning through today .
The racing flames show how climate change is affecting the nation 's most populous state , experts said .
Hotter @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that melts sooner lead to drier soil and parched vegetation .
Climate change also affects how much moisture is in the air , Swain said .
`` It 's actually drying out the air during these extreme heat events , '' which zaps plants of additional moisture , Swain said .
That left much of the state a tinderbox when hundreds of lightning strikes scorched the countryside last week .
`` This is really a testament to how dry the vegetation is , in terms of how quickly these fires spread when they @ @ @ @ @ @ @ said .
The amount of land burned last week is more than the total burned in all of 2018 , and more than double the amount burned in 2017 , according to data released by the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection ( Cal Fire ) .
The fires on Saturday burned part of the oldest state park in California , Big Basin Redwoods State Park in Santa Cruz County .
Flames damaged historic buildings , the campground and `` all of the infrastructure , '' said Christine McMorrow , a spokeswoman @ @ @ @ @ @ @ known whether redwood trees were engulfed .
The blazes threaten to outpace the state 's ability to respond .
Nearly all of Cal Fire 's crews are in the field , with some working 72-hour shifts .
Oregon , Washington , Nevada , New Mexico , Texas and other states sent firefighters , equipment or both .
Officials said more than 13,000 fire personnel were on the scene .
`` We have more people , but it 's not enough , '' Newsom said at a Friday news conference .
`` We have @ @ @ @ @ @ @ not enough . ''
Fires erupted beginning Aug. 15 when more than 1,200 lightning strikes hit the baking landscape within 72 hours .
Those came `` the exact week that we were experiencing some of the hottest temperatures ever recorded in human history , 130-degree temperatures in the southern part of the state , '' Newsom said .
It was `` maybe the hottest modern recorded temperature in the history of the world , '' he said .
He was referring to the temperature of 130 degrees Fahrenheit on Aug. 16 in Death @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Earth in 89 years .
The highest temperature ever recorded on the planet is 134 Fahrenheit .
It was reached in 1913 in Death Valley .
Its accuracy is disputed by some observers because there was a lack of modern technology ( Climatewire , Aug. 18 ) .
Altogether , more than 12,000 lightning strikes hit California last week , igniting over 600 fires .
Firefighters knocked down smaller ones , but others merged into major `` complex '' fires .
The week was filled with horror stories and heroic efforts .
Volunteers @ @ @ @ @ @ @ retirement home in the middle of the night as a fire raced toward the facility .
Others helped rescue `` dozens and dozens of individuals with intellectual disabilities '' in Santa Clara , Newsom said .
`` Tuesday night when I went to bed , I had a beautiful home on a beautiful ranch , '' Hank Hanson , 81 , of Vacaville , told the Associated Press .
`` By Wednesday night , I have nothing but a bunch of ashes . ''
State Assemblywoman Cecilia Aguiar-Curry , who represents the Napa @ @ @ @ @ @ @ conference Friday that she has `` half a dozen really good friends who do n't have a home right now . ''
The American Red Cross , wary of the coronavirus pandemic , put some survivors in hotel rooms so they could be separated from other evacuees , said Jim Burns , a Red Cross spokesman .
Others went to evacuation shelters where protocols were in place to keep people spaced out .
The Red Cross was also talking to colleges to see whether dorm rooms were available .
The fires swept across @ @ @ @ @ @ @ fires in recent years .
Susan Gorin , a Sonoma County supervisor , lost her home in the 2017 Tubbs Fire , a blaze that killed 22 people .
She built a new house in the same location ; on Friday , she found ashes on her patio from a nearby firestorm .
`` It just seems so terrifyingly familiar , '' Gorin said as she traveled to Lake Tahoe to escape the smoke and mayhem .
`` This is now the third major fire in four years .
We are battle-weary .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ earlier this year published a study that said climate change has doubled the number of extreme-risk days for California wildfires .
It said temperatures statewide rose 1.8 degrees Fahrenheit since 1980 , while precipitation dropped 30 % .
That doubled the number of autumn days that offer extreme conditions for the ignition of wildfires ( Climatewire , April 3 ) .
The heat is expected to get worse with time .
Climate models estimate that average state temperatures will climb 3 degrees Fahrenheit by 2050 unless the world makes sharp cuts in greenhouse @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a senior scientist at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory .
Even with emissions cuts , average temperatures would rise 2 degrees by midcentury , he said .
Jon Keeley , a senior scientist at the U.S. Geological Survey Western Ecological Research Center , argued that the study from Swain and others failed to show that hotter temperatures are driving wildfires .
`` Show us data that shows that level of temperature increase is actually associated with increased fire activity , '' Keeley said .
`` They do n't show that . ''
Keeley added @ @ @ @ @ @ @ more concerned with ignition sources than a 1- to 2-degree change in temperature . ''
A big contributor to large California fires is that the state has focused on extinguishing blazes for about a century rather than allowing for controlled burns , he said .
That has caused dead vegetation to accumulate .
Trump has accused California of failing to `` sweep '' its forests , which he has linked to fires in the state .
Keeley said that `` we do n't sweep forests here in the U.S. , but what we @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 's potentially the same thing .
It 's modifying the fuels prior to a fire . ''
Swain , the UCLA climate scientist , said global warming is affecting how big fires get and how fast they move .
`` What happens when they start burning , what is the character of those fires , and is it changing ? ''
Swain asked .
`` The answer is yes . ''
Reprinted from Climatewire with permission from E & E News .
E & E provides daily coverage of essential energy and environmental @ @ @ @

Firefighters battled nearly two dozen wildfires in California yesterday after a week of raging blazes blackened more than 1 million acres across the state.
The fast-moving fires, which are seen by many scientists as a sign of climate change, have killed five people, destroyed more than 1,000 structures and forced thousands to flee. More than 238,000 people either evacuated or were ready to go as more thunderstorms threatened to light new fires yesterday afternoon, according to officials.
Still-active fires are affecting at least 23 counties in Northern California, stretching from Butte to Fresno. Two of the blazes rank among the largest in state history.
The LNU Lightning Complex Fire, a group of fires centered in Napa and Sonoma counties, has grown into the second-largest blaze ever seen in California. The SCU Lightning Complex Fire, a cluster of blazes in Santa Clara, Alameda and nearby counties, is the third-largest.
Altogether, the fires have burned an area the size of Rhode Island.
"The scope [of the damage] is absolutely astonishing," said Daniel Swain, a climate scientist at UCLA. It's "hard to impress on people just how vast the acreage burned is, especially considering there were no strong offshore winds" to drive the spread.
President Trump on Saturday issued a major disaster declaration to fulfill a request by Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) to bolster the state's emergency resources. Meanwhile, the National Weather Service issued a red flag warning for more thunderstorms and lightning through today.
The racing flames show how climate change is affecting the nation's most populous state, experts said. Hotter temperatures, less dependable precipitation and snowpack that melts sooner lead to drier soil and parched vegetation. Climate change also affects how much moisture is in the air, Swain said.
"It's actually drying out the air during these extreme heat events," which zaps plants of additional moisture, Swain said. That left much of the state a tinderbox when hundreds of lightning strikes scorched the countryside last week.
"This is really a testament to how dry the vegetation is, in terms of how quickly these fires spread when they were ignited by lightning," he said.
The amount of land burned last week is more than the total burned in all of 2018, and more than double the amount burned in 2017, according to data released by the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection (Cal Fire).
The fires on Saturday burned part of the oldest state park in California, Big Basin Redwoods State Park in Santa Cruz County. Flames damaged historic buildings, the campground and "all of the infrastructure," said Christine McMorrow, a spokeswoman with Cal Fire. It wasn't known whether redwood trees were engulfed.
The blazes threaten to outpace the state's ability to respond. Nearly all of Cal Fire's crews are in the field, with some working 72-hour shifts. Oregon, Washington, Nevada, New Mexico, Texas and other states sent firefighters, equipment or both. Officials said more than 13,000 fire personnel were on the scene.
"We have more people, but it's not enough," Newsom said at a Friday news conference. "We have more air support, but it's not enough."
Repeat fire trauma
Fires erupted beginning Aug. 15 when more than 1,200 lightning strikes hit the baking landscape within 72 hours.
Those came "the exact week that we were experiencing some of the hottest temperatures ever recorded in human history, 130-degree temperatures in the southern part of the state," Newsom said. It was "maybe the hottest modern recorded temperature in the history of the world," he said.
He was referring to the temperature of 130 degrees Fahrenheit on Aug. 16 in Death Valley, a high not reached on Earth in 89 years. The highest temperature ever recorded on the planet is 134 Fahrenheit. It was reached in 1913 in Death Valley. Its accuracy is disputed by some observers because there was a lack of modern technology (Climatewire, Aug. 18).
Altogether, more than 12,000 lightning strikes hit California last week, igniting over 600 fires. Firefighters knocked down smaller ones, but others merged into major "complex" fires.
The week was filled with horror stories and heroic efforts. Volunteers helped evacuate senior citizens from a Vacaville retirement home in the middle of the night as a fire raced toward the facility. Others helped rescue "dozens and dozens of individuals with intellectual disabilities" in Santa Clara, Newsom said.
Hundreds saw their homes destroyed.
"Tuesday night when I went to bed, I had a beautiful home on a beautiful ranch," Hank Hanson, 81, of Vacaville, told the Associated Press. "By Wednesday night, I have nothing but a bunch of ashes."
State Assemblywoman Cecilia Aguiar-Curry, who represents the Napa wine region, said at a news conference Friday that she has "half a dozen really good friends who don't have a home right now."
The American Red Cross, wary of the coronavirus pandemic, put some survivors in hotel rooms so they could be separated from other evacuees, said Jim Burns, a Red Cross spokesman. Others went to evacuation shelters where protocols were in place to keep people spaced out. The Red Cross was also talking to colleges to see whether dorm rooms were available.
The fires swept across heavily populated cities that have endured major fires in recent years. Susan Gorin, a Sonoma County supervisor, lost her home in the 2017 Tubbs Fire, a blaze that killed 22 people. She built a new house in the same location; on Friday, she found ashes on her patio from a nearby firestorm.
"It just seems so terrifyingly familiar," Gorin said as she traveled to Lake Tahoe to escape the smoke and mayhem. "This is now the third major fire in four years. We are battle-weary."
Climate connection scrutinized
Swain with UCLA and other scientists earlier this year published a study that said climate change has doubled the number of extreme-risk days for California wildfires.
It said temperatures statewide rose 1.8 degrees Fahrenheit since 1980, while precipitation dropped 30%. That doubled the number of autumn days that offer extreme conditions for the ignition of wildfires (Climatewire, April 3).
The heat is expected to get worse with time. Climate models estimate that average state temperatures will climb 3 degrees Fahrenheit by 2050 unless the world makes sharp cuts in greenhouse gas emissions, said Michael Wehner, a senior scientist at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory.
Even with emissions cuts, average temperatures would rise 2 degrees by midcentury, he said.
Jon Keeley, a senior scientist at the U.S. Geological Survey Western Ecological Research Center, argued that the study from Swain and others failed to show that hotter temperatures are driving wildfires.
"Show us data that shows that level of temperature increase is actually associated with increased fire activity," Keeley said. "They don't show that."
Keeley added, "We ought to be much more concerned with ignition sources than a 1- to 2-degree change in temperature."
A big contributor to large California fires is that the state has focused on extinguishing blazes for about a century rather than allowing for controlled burns, he said. That has caused dead vegetation to accumulate.
Trump has accused California of failing to "sweep" its forests, which he has linked to fires in the state.
Keeley said that "we don't sweep forests here in the U.S., but what we do is prescription burning. ... It's potentially the same thing. It's modifying the fuels prior to a fire."
Swain, the UCLA climate scientist, said global warming is affecting how big fires get and how fast they move.
"What happens when they start burning, what is the character of those fires, and is it changing?" Swain asked. "The answer is yes."
Reprinted from Climatewire with permission from E&E News. E&E provides daily coverage of essential energy and environmental news at www.eenews.net.


scientificamerican--2020-08-22--Prehistoric Marine Reptile Died after a Giant Meal

Hundreds of millions of years ago , reptilian predators called ichthyosaurs swam the seas .
Their fossils look fearsome .
But paleobiologist Ryosuke Motani of U.C .
Davis says they may have looked more like friendly dolphins .
“ Maybe in life ichthyosaurs would have been cute—at least the smaller ones.
” Motani ’ s team studied one such specimen found in southwest China .
It was 240 million years old—15 feet long .
But it seemed to have some extra bones in it—which Motani 's team determined to be the remains of a 13-foot-long thalattosaur , or “ sea @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
And , spoiler alert , the only reason they were able to see this animal in the belly of the ichthyosaur is that this gigantic meal never got digested .
The ichthyosaur died soon after swallowing it .
Motani was careful to say they ’ re not sure exactly why the ichthyosaur perished .
But the specimen has a broken neck .
So he gave a speculative play-by-play .
Perhaps the ichthyosaur snapped at the sea lizard , but the lizard fought back .
“ And this fight between the two was @ @ @ @ @ @ @ fought to subdue its prey , damaging its neck in the process .
Then it had to dislodge the prey ’ s bony head and tail from its juicy midsection .
“ Now the predator had to do it through jerking and twisting like crocodiles do.
” Also bad for the neck .
And finally , the ichthyosaur had to swallow the animal—perhaps using inertia or gravity to shove the prey down its gullet .
“ And the chances are , by the time it was ingested , maybe the neck damage had @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the neck could not support the head of the predator that well.
” Details of that ancient battle appear in the journal iScience .
[ Da-Yong Jiang et al.
, Evidence supporting predation of 4-m marine reptile by Triassic megapredator ] The reason this analysis matters is you can only infer so much about who ate who by looking at teeth .
This fossil offers direct evidence that these ancient beasts sometimes bit off a whole lot more than they could chew .
[ The above text is a transcript of this podcast @ @

Full Transcript
Hundreds of millions of years ago, reptilian predators called ichthyosaurs swam the seas. Their fossils look fearsome. But paleobiologist Ryosuke Motani of U.C. Davis says they may have looked more like friendly dolphins.
“Maybe in life ichthyosaurs would have been cute—at least the smaller ones.”
Motani’s team studied one such specimen found in southwest China. It was 240 million years old—15 feet long. But it seemed to have some extra bones in it—which Motani's team determined to be the remains of a 13-foot-long thalattosaur, or “sea lizard,” the ichthyosaur had swallowed.
And, spoiler alert, the only reason they were able to see this animal in the belly of the ichthyosaur is that this gigantic meal never got digested. The ichthyosaur died soon after swallowing it.
Motani was careful to say they’re not sure exactly why the ichthyosaur perished. But the specimen has a broken neck. So he gave a speculative play-by-play. Perhaps the ichthyosaur snapped at the sea lizard, but the lizard fought back.
“And this fight between the two was fierce, probably.”
So the ichthyosaur fought to subdue its prey, damaging its neck in the process. Then it had to dislodge the prey’s bony head and tail from its juicy midsection.
“Now the predator had to do it through jerking and twisting like crocodiles do.”
Also bad for the neck. And finally, the ichthyosaur had to swallow the animal—perhaps using inertia or gravity to shove the prey down its gullet.
“And the chances are, by the time it was ingested, maybe the neck damage had accumulated to a certain level and maybe the neck could not support the head of the predator that well.”
Details of that ancient battle appear in the journal iScience. [Da-Yong Jiang et al., Evidence supporting predation of 4-m marine reptile by Triassic megapredator]
The reason this analysis matters is you can only infer so much about who ate who by looking at teeth. This fossil offers direct evidence that these ancient beasts sometimes bit off a whole lot more than they could chew.
—Christopher Intagliata
[The above text is a transcript of this podcast.]


scientificamerican--2020-08-21--Coronavirus News Roundup: August 15-August 21

The items below are highlights from the free newsletter , “ Smart , useful , science stuff about COVID-19.
” To receive newsletter issues daily in your inbox , sign up here .
Please consider a monthly contribution to support this newsletter .
The New York Times is routinely updating a graphic resource for readers , “ Is your state doing enough coronavirus testing ?
” The U.S. only conducts 52 percent of the daily coronavirus tests that Harvard Global Health Institute researchers estimate are necessary to keep the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in check , Keith Collins writes .
But @ @ @ @ @ @ @ state-by-state estimates , which show the extent of testing in all 52 U.S. states , based on data collected by the Covid Tracking Project .
A total of 10 U.S. states are meeting a testing target set by the Harvard researchers , the story states .
Where are these states ?
Hint : stick close to the New England states , our nation ’ s capital , `` Seward ’ s Folly , ” and “ the Land of Enchantment ” ( last updated 8/20/20 ) .
A “ spit test ” for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ University researchers received emergency-use approval on 8/15/20 from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration , several outlets reported .
The test is “ easier to administer and analyze than the standard nasal swabs , ” reports Tanya Lewis at Scientific American .
The Yale test , called SalivaDirect , “ is not the first saliva test the FDA has authorized , ” Lewis writes , but it can work with chemicals made by a variety of companies , which should prevent supply-chain issues that have slowed other coronavirus testing methods .
The bulk @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Q & A with one of the Yale researchers who helped develop the spit test .
It sounds like it could be a while before this spit test is widely available ( 8/20/20 ) .
A piece by Claudia Wallis for Scientific American dives into the science — both biological and social — behind why older people , men , individuals with certain genetic variants , people with underlying chronic conditions such as cardiovascular disease and diabetes , Latinx people , and Black people are at higher risk for severe cases of COVID-19 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 8/20/20 ) .
Early in the story , Wallis introduces the analogy of a Russian nesting doll for thinking about how multiple risk factors can “ stack up ” for any one of us .
Apoorva Mandavilli at The New York Times reports that more than a dozen scientists think that the pandemic ’ s herd immunity , “ the point at which the virus can no longer spread widely because there are not enough vulnerable humans , ” is 50 percent or less .
Previously , scientists have put the figure at @ @ @ @ @ @ @ be acquired by overcoming an infection with SARS-CoV-2 or by vaccination if vaccines become available .
Some scientists estimate that parts of New York , London , and Mumbai might already have sufficient immunity among their populaces to resist a second wave of SARS-CoV-2 infections , the story states .
Unlike previous estimates , some new estimates for herd immunity take into account the extent to which the reproductive number , R-naught , varies in different groups and subpopulations .
R-naught in these new estimates is assumed to vary by population density in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ among community members , and the age profile of a community .
“ The new models offer food for thought…but should not be used to set policy , ” according to some experts interviewed for the story , Mandavilli writes ( 8/17/20 ) .
Freelance journalist Tara Haelle has written a compassionate first-person piece for Medium ’ s Elemental about the limits of our mental and physical “ surge capacity ” for responding to drawn-out events like the current pandemic .
Haelle talks about how she got through feeling despondent and adrift in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to do with “ reckoning with what ’ s called ambiguous loss , ” Haelle writes , which refers to “ any loss that ’ s unclear and lacks a resolution.
” With the pandemic , what we ’ ve lost is a “ way of life , of the ability to meet up with your friends and extended family , ” says a family therapist and emeritus professor of social sciences at the University of Minnesota who is quoted in the story .
My favorite tip from the solutions section near the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ expect less from yourself ” ( 8/18/20 ) .
Electric rice-cookers and multi-cookers may effectively inactivate 99.9 percent of four common viruses in an artificial saliva solution applied to medical-grade N95 masks without degrading the masks ' fit or filtration efficiency , according to a recently published study covered by Allyson Chiu at The Washington Post ( 8/14/20 ) .
The relatively simple method could be used to inactivate SARS-CoV-2 on used medical-grade masks , the story suggests .
A 50-minute treatment “ without pressure at a temperature of 212 degrees Fahrenheit ” @ @ @ @ @ @ @ `` thoroughly cleaned ” for re-use , Chiu writes .
Engineers at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign published their results 7/15/20 in the journal Environmental Science & Technology Letters .
Inside the cooker , N95 ’ s should be wrapped in a towel to protect them from the cooker ’ s inner walls or heating elements , the story states ( 8/14/20 ) .
We are bigger threats to our pets than our pets are to us when it comes to passing SARS-CoV-2 across species , reports David Grimm for Science .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ this conclusion , but “ everything scientists have seen so far suggests cats and dogs are highly unlikely to pass SARS-CoV-2 to humans , ” Grimm writes .
Nearly all pets who have tested positive for the virus had contact with infected humans , the story states .
Fortunately , pets infected with the virus tend to only have mild COVID-19 symptoms or none at all , the story states .
Failure to wear a mask , wash hands frequently and social distance puts both pets and their humans at risk for infection @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 8/14/20 ) .
A Chemical & Engineering News story by Massachusetts-based freelance writer XiaoZhi Lim raises safety concerns about disinfectants that contain “ quats ” — quaternary ammonium compounds .
Quat disinfectants , which are found in many disinfecting sprays , wipes , soaps , and hand sanitizers , have been widely used for decades and now are widely used by consumers , hospital workers , janitors , and public transit workers to reduce the risk of catching SARS-CoV-2 .
But quat compounds also have been linked to developmental and fertility problems in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ negative changes in cellular processes .
No data links quats with “ systemic toxicity ” in humans , Lim reports .
The California Department of Public Health is quoted in the story as saying , “ We proactively recommend the use of disinfectants that do not contain [ quats ] or other harmful chemicals , whenever possible.
” The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency is set to release updated risk assessments for quotes in 2021 , and at least one study has measured quat levels in samples of human blood and analyzed them for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Reviewers currently are assessing the results for publication in a journal , the story states ( 8/2/20 ) .
You might enjoy “ Virtual freshman orientation , ” by Nicky Guerreiro and Ethan Simon , for The New Yorker ( 8/17/20 ) .

The items below are highlights from the free newsletter, “Smart, useful, science stuff about COVID-19.” To receive newsletter issues daily in your inbox, sign up here. Please consider a monthly contribution to support this newsletter.
The New York Times is routinely updating a graphic resource for readers, “Is your state doing enough coronavirus testing?” The U.S. only conducts 52 percent of the daily coronavirus tests that Harvard Global Health Institute researchers estimate are necessary to keep the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in check, Keith Collins writes. But perhaps more useful for lay people are state-by-state estimates, which show the extent of testing in all 52 U.S. states, based on data collected by the Covid Tracking Project. A total of 10 U.S. states are meeting a testing target set by the Harvard researchers, the story states. Where are these states? Hint: stick close to the New England states, our nation’s capital, "Seward’s Folly,” and “the Land of Enchantment” (last updated 8/20/20).
A “spit test” for SARS-CoV-2 infections that was developed by Yale University researchers received emergency-use approval on 8/15/20 from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration, several outlets reported. The test is “easier to administer and analyze than the standard nasal swabs,” reports Tanya Lewis at Scientific American. The Yale test, called SalivaDirect, “is not the first saliva test the FDA has authorized,” Lewis writes, but it can work with chemicals made by a variety of companies, which should prevent supply-chain issues that have slowed other coronavirus testing methods. The bulk of Lewis’s piece features a Q&A with one of the Yale researchers who helped develop the spit test. It sounds like it could be a while before this spit test is widely available (8/20/20).
A piece by Claudia Wallis for Scientific American dives into the science — both biological and social — behind why older people, men, individuals with certain genetic variants, people with underlying chronic conditions such as cardiovascular disease and diabetes, Latinx people, and Black people are at higher risk for severe cases of COVID-19 or for dying from the disease (8/20/20). Early in the story, Wallis introduces the analogy of a Russian nesting doll for thinking about how multiple risk factors can “stack up” for any one of us.
Apoorva Mandavilli at The New York Times reports that more than a dozen scientists think that the pandemic’s herd immunity, “the point at which the virus can no longer spread widely because there are not enough vulnerable humans,” is 50 percent or less. Previously, scientists have put the figure at 60 to 70 percent. Immunity can be acquired by overcoming an infection with SARS-CoV-2 or by vaccination if vaccines become available. Some scientists estimate that parts of New York, London, and Mumbai might already have sufficient immunity among their populaces to resist a second wave of SARS-CoV-2 infections, the story states. Unlike previous estimates, some new estimates for herd immunity take into account the extent to which the reproductive number, R-naught, varies in different groups and subpopulations. R-naught in these new estimates is assumed to vary by population density in a region, the extent of mixing among community members, and the age profile of a community. “The new models offer food for thought…but should not be used to set policy,” according to some experts interviewed for the story, Mandavilli writes (8/17/20).
Freelance journalist Tara Haelle has written a compassionate first-person piece for Medium’s Elemental about the limits of our mental and physical “surge capacity” for responding to drawn-out events like the current pandemic. Haelle talks about how she got through feeling despondent and adrift in recent months. Some of it has to do with “reckoning with what’s called ambiguous loss,” Haelle writes, which refers to “any loss that’s unclear and lacks a resolution.” With the pandemic, what we’ve lost is a “way of life, of the ability to meet up with your friends and extended family,” says a family therapist and emeritus professor of social sciences at the University of Minnesota who is quoted in the story. My favorite tip from the solutions section near the end of the essay is to “expect less from yourself” (8/18/20).
Electric rice-cookers and multi-cookers may effectively inactivate 99.9 percent of four common viruses in an artificial saliva solution applied to medical-grade N95 masks without degrading the masks' fit or filtration efficiency, according to a recently published study covered by Allyson Chiu at The Washington Post (8/14/20). The relatively simple method could be used to inactivate SARS-CoV-2 on used medical-grade masks, the story suggests. A 50-minute treatment “without pressure at a temperature of 212 degrees Fahrenheit” of an N95 mask made by 3M "thoroughly cleaned” for re-use, Chiu writes. Engineers at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign published their results 7/15/20 in the journal Environmental Science & Technology Letters. Inside the cooker, N95’s should be wrapped in a towel to protect them from the cooker’s inner walls or heating elements, the story states (8/14/20).
We are bigger threats to our pets than our pets are to us when it comes to passing SARS-CoV-2 across species, reports David Grimm for Science. There’s no strong evidence for this conclusion, but “everything scientists have seen so far suggests cats and dogs are highly unlikely to pass SARS-CoV-2 to humans,” Grimm writes. Nearly all pets who have tested positive for the virus had contact with infected humans, the story states. Fortunately, pets infected with the virus tend to only have mild COVID-19 symptoms or none at all, the story states. Failure to wear a mask, wash hands frequently and social distance puts both pets and their humans at risk for infection with SARS-CoV-2, the story states (8/14/20).
A Chemical & Engineering News story by Massachusetts-based freelance writer XiaoZhi Lim raises safety concerns about disinfectants that contain “quats” — quaternary ammonium compounds. Quat disinfectants, which are found in many disinfecting sprays, wipes, soaps, and hand sanitizers, have been widely used for decades and now are widely used by consumers, hospital workers, janitors, and public transit workers to reduce the risk of catching SARS-CoV-2. But quat compounds also have been linked to developmental and fertility problems in mice, Lim writes, and to negative changes in cellular processes. No data links quats with “systemic toxicity” in humans, Lim reports. The California Department of Public Health is quoted in the story as saying, “We proactively recommend the use of disinfectants that do not contain [quats] or other harmful chemicals, whenever possible.” The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency is set to release updated risk assessments for quotes in 2021, and at least one study has measured quat levels in samples of human blood and analyzed them for markers of cellular dysfunction and inflammation. Reviewers currently are assessing the results for publication in a journal, the story states (8/2/20).
You might enjoy “Virtual freshman orientation,” by Nicky Guerreiro and Ethan Simon, for The New Yorker (8/17/20).