scientificamerican--2020-08-21--Recipe for a Busy Hurricane Season: Warmer Water, Cleaner Air

Editor ’ s Note ( 8/21/20 ) : Tropical Depression 13 has now strengthened and become Tropical Storm Laura .
Peak Atlantic hurricane season began yesterday .
The greatest number of storms—especially major storms—typically form between Aug. 20 and Oct. 10 .
But the start of the busy season is a bit more troubling than usual this year .
The early part of the season has already been abnormally active .
So far , 11 named storms have already formed in the Atlantic basin .
The National Hurricane Center names a storm once it reaches tropical storm levels .
Two @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Meanwhile , two more tropical depressions are already churning in the Atlantic basin , one in the Caribbean Sea and the other just west of the Caribbean islands .
If they strengthen into tropical storms , they ’ ll be the 13th and 14th named storms this year .
An average season , on the other hand , typically sees only around two named storms by the beginning of August .
An entire season , which concludes at the end of November , usually sees around 12 .
In other words , the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ seen nearly as many storms as an entire hurricane season would typically produce .
Unusual weather activity these days often begs the question : Is climate change playing a role ?
Are we catching a glimpse of what may eventually become a “ new normal ” in a warming world ?
In this case , there ’ s a bit more going on .
While this season has produced a parade of tropical storms and hurricanes , none of them has achieved major storm status , typically defined as a Category 3 hurricane @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Isaias topped out as Category 1 storms .
That ’ s not to say they didn ’ t cause their fair share of trouble .
Both storms left flash flooding and widespread power outages in their wake .
But the total number of hurricanes isn ’ t necessarily a symbol of the changing climate .
In the first place , there ’ s a surprising amount of uncertainty about how many storms are “ normal ” to begin with .
Reliable hurricane records only go back to about the 1950s , and the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in the 1970s .
That means scientists don ’ t actually have a ton of long-term data on what constitutes a typical hurricane season .
That said , climate models generally don ’ t predict a big future increase in the frequency of tropical cyclones .
Rather , they suggest that the storms that do form will be more intense .
In other words , there ’ s likely to be around the same number of storms each year as the climate continues to warm—but a greater proportion of them will be major @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the Atlantic this year ?
It ’ s true that high temperatures—specifically warm water in the Atlantic Ocean—have helped fuel this year ’ s active season .
Sea surfaces have been unusually warm throughout much of the Atlantic basin this summer .
And warm waters are more favorable for storm formation .
At the same time , a number of other meteorological conditions have also lined up this summer , making it easier for storms to form .
“ We ’ re seeing not only just warmer sea surface temperatures , we ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , ” said Jhordanne Jones , a graduate research assistant with Colorado State University ’ s Tropical Weather and Climate Research Group .
“ Lower sea level pressure will very likely favor convection and the development of storms.
” And wind conditions in the region have also favored storm formation , she added .
The warm Atlantic waters have likely been influenced by a number of factors .
Natural climate cycles , which swing between warmer and cooler phases every decade or so , have probably played a role .
And climate change @ @ @ @ @ @ @ But there ’ s another , less obvious factor that may be affecting the frequency of Atlantic storms in recent years .
As pollution levels in the United States and Europe have fallen , the climate over the Atlantic has warmed a bit faster than it otherwise would have .
That ’ s because certain types of air pollution actually have a cooling effect in the atmosphere .
“ From the 1950s to the late 1970s , big time , we were ramping up sulfate emissions , which are a byproduct of fossil @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , a hurricane expert at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology .
This pollution dampened temperatures in the tropical Atlantic for several decades .
And some experts believe that hurricane activity was dampened , as well .
“ We think it was mostly a man-made phenomenon , that we caused a kind of hurricane drought in the ‘ 70s and ’ 80s , ” Emanuel said .
Starting in the 1970s , both the United States and Europe began making strides in reducing their air pollution .
The Clean Air Act was a key @ @ @ @ @ @ @ time .
Sulfate emissions dropped , and the region began to warm up at faster rates .
At the same time , beginning around the early ’ 80s , hurricane activity in the Atlantic appeared to increase again .
There ’ s still some debate among scientists about whether the pollution was the major factor or whether natural climate cycles played a bigger role , Emanuel noted .
But Jim Kossin , a hurricane expert at NOAA , also pointed to pollution as at least one key factor in Atlantic hurricane frequency over @ @ @ @ @ @ @ has also been raising sea surface temperatures everywhere for the last few decades , he noted .
But falling pollution levels have helped speed up warming specifically over the Atlantic .
This may have helped hurricane activity ramp back up to where it would have been without all the pollution of the 1950s and ’ 60s .
“ How much of it is due to greenhouse gas increase , how much of it is due to pollution decreases , and how much of it is due to natural variability ?
There ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ working on that question , and we don ’ t have a definitive answer to it yet , ” Kossin said .
“ Almost everyone agrees it ’ s a combination of the three.
” A look into the future Since warm ocean waters play such a big role in hurricane formation , it seems logical that more warming should further increase the number of storms that form each year .
But it ’ s not that simple , experts say .
Climate change affects more than just ocean temperatures in the Atlantic @ @ @ @ @ @ @ physical structure of the atmosphere , and it affects wind patterns , as well .
And climate models suggest that the way the atmosphere changes over the Atlantic in the coming decades is actually less conducive to hurricane formation .
According to the models , future warming “ has a tendency to sort of stabilize the air , and it tends to dry out the middle layers of the atmosphere , ” Kossin said .
“ Now both of these things are very bad for [ hurricane ] genesis.
” With the atmospheric @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the warming waters on the other , it ’ s actually not surprising that models don ’ t predict an increase in the number of hurricanes that form each season .
In fact , models suggest that some parts of the world may actually see a slight decrease in the total number of annual storms .
But warm water doesn ’ t just affect the likelihood that a storm will form in the first place .
It also influences how intense the storm will get .
Warmer water tends to favor stronger storms @ @ @ @ @ @ @ hurricanes will be more intense in the future .
In fact , some research suggests that it ’ s already happening .
A study published earlier this year in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences , led by Kossin , found that cyclone intensity has been increasing over the last four decades .
So what about the rest of this year ?
Researchers at Colorado State University release an Atlantic hurricane forecast each year .
The team recently updated this season ’ s forecast , predicting an “ extremely active ” 2020 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 24 named storms , 12 of which become hurricanes and five of which turn into major storms .
A typical season sees six hurricanes , only three of which achieve Category 3 or higher .
If the forecast holds true , that means both an above-average number of storms and an above-average number of intense storms for 2020 .
The proportion of intense storms—about half the total number of hurricanes—is still projected to be about average this year .
But that could change in the coming years .
And while the number of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , the strength of the hurricanes is really the thing to pay attention to in the end , Emanuel said .
“ We ’ ve had all these storms this year , and not one of them has become very strong at all , nor has any one of them done a lot of damage , ” he told E & E News .
“ What the people who have to make decisions are worried about is the intense storms .
And what we really ought to be focused on is what controls @ @ @ @ @ @ @ models show is the frequency of those guys going up , even if the [ total ] frequency of storms goes down.
” Reprinted from Climatewire with permission from E & E News .
E & E provides daily coverage of essential energy and environmental news at www.eenews.net .

Editor’s Note (8/21/20): Tropical Depression 13 has now strengthened and become Tropical Storm Laura.
Peak Atlantic hurricane season began yesterday. The greatest number of storms—especially major storms—typically form between Aug. 20 and Oct. 10.
But the start of the busy season is a bit more troubling than usual this year. The early part of the season has already been abnormally active.
So far, 11 named storms have already formed in the Atlantic basin. The National Hurricane Center names a storm once it reaches tropical storm levels. Two of them—Hanna and Isaias—strengthened into hurricanes.
Meanwhile, two more tropical depressions are already churning in the Atlantic basin, one in the Caribbean Sea and the other just west of the Caribbean islands. If they strengthen into tropical storms, they’ll be the 13th and 14th named storms this year.
An average season, on the other hand, typically sees only around two named storms by the beginning of August. An entire season, which concludes at the end of November, usually sees around 12.
In other words, the early part of this season has already seen nearly as many storms as an entire hurricane season would typically produce.
Unusual weather activity these days often begs the question: Is climate change playing a role? Are we catching a glimpse of what may eventually become a “new normal” in a warming world?
In this case, there’s a bit more going on.
While this season has produced a parade of tropical storms and hurricanes, none of them has achieved major storm status, typically defined as a Category 3 hurricane or higher. Both Hurricanes Hanna and Isaias topped out as Category 1 storms.
That’s not to say they didn’t cause their fair share of trouble. Both storms left flash flooding and widespread power outages in their wake.
But the total number of hurricanes isn’t necessarily a symbol of the changing climate.
In the first place, there’s a surprising amount of uncertainty about how many storms are “normal” to begin with. Reliable hurricane records only go back to about the 1950s, and the best data starts with the satellite record in the 1970s. That means scientists don’t actually have a ton of long-term data on what constitutes a typical hurricane season.
That said, climate models generally don’t predict a big future increase in the frequency of tropical cyclones. Rather, they suggest that the storms that do form will be more intense.
In other words, there’s likely to be around the same number of storms each year as the climate continues to warm—but a greater proportion of them will be major storms.
What’s happening in the Atlantic this year?
It’s true that high temperatures—specifically warm water in the Atlantic Ocean—have helped fuel this year’s active season.
Sea surfaces have been unusually warm throughout much of the Atlantic basin this summer. And warm waters are more favorable for storm formation.
At the same time, a number of other meteorological conditions have also lined up this summer, making it easier for storms to form.
“We’re seeing not only just warmer sea surface temperatures, we’re also seeing lower sea level pressures,” said Jhordanne Jones, a graduate research assistant with Colorado State University’s Tropical Weather and Climate Research Group. “Lower sea level pressure will very likely favor convection and the development of storms.”
And wind conditions in the region have also favored storm formation, she added.
The warm Atlantic waters have likely been influenced by a number of factors. Natural climate cycles, which swing between warmer and cooler phases every decade or so, have probably played a role. And climate change certainly is contributing to ocean warming.
But there’s another, less obvious factor that may be affecting the frequency of Atlantic storms in recent years.
As pollution levels in the United States and Europe have fallen, the climate over the Atlantic has warmed a bit faster than it otherwise would have. That’s because certain types of air pollution actually have a cooling effect in the atmosphere.
“From the 1950s to the late 1970s, big time, we were ramping up sulfate emissions, which are a byproduct of fossil fuel combustion,” said Kerry Emanuel, a hurricane expert at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
This pollution dampened temperatures in the tropical Atlantic for several decades. And some experts believe that hurricane activity was dampened, as well.
“We think it was mostly a man-made phenomenon, that we caused a kind of hurricane drought in the ‘70s and ’80s,” Emanuel said.
Starting in the 1970s, both the United States and Europe began making strides in reducing their air pollution. The Clean Air Act was a key regulation in the United States around this time. Sulfate emissions dropped, and the region began to warm up at faster rates.
At the same time, beginning around the early ’80s, hurricane activity in the Atlantic appeared to increase again.
There’s still some debate among scientists about whether the pollution was the major factor or whether natural climate cycles played a bigger role, Emanuel noted.
But Jim Kossin, a hurricane expert at NOAA, also pointed to pollution as at least one key factor in Atlantic hurricane frequency over the last few decades.
Global warming has also been raising sea surface temperatures everywhere for the last few decades, he noted. But falling pollution levels have helped speed up warming specifically over the Atlantic.
This may have helped hurricane activity ramp back up to where it would have been without all the pollution of the 1950s and ’60s.
“How much of it is due to greenhouse gas increase, how much of it is due to pollution decreases, and how much of it is due to natural variability? There’s a whole lot of really smart people working on that question, and we don’t have a definitive answer to it yet,” Kossin said. “Almost everyone agrees it’s a combination of the three.”
A look into the future
Since warm ocean waters play such a big role in hurricane formation, it seems logical that more warming should further increase the number of storms that form each year. But it’s not that simple, experts say.
Climate change affects more than just ocean temperatures in the Atlantic. It also alters the temperature and physical structure of the atmosphere, and it affects wind patterns, as well.
And climate models suggest that the way the atmosphere changes over the Atlantic in the coming decades is actually less conducive to hurricane formation.
According to the models, future warming “has a tendency to sort of stabilize the air, and it tends to dry out the middle layers of the atmosphere,” Kossin said. “Now both of these things are very bad for [hurricane] genesis.”
With the atmospheric changes on the one hand, and the warming waters on the other, it’s actually not surprising that models don’t predict an increase in the number of hurricanes that form each season. In fact, models suggest that some parts of the world may actually see a slight decrease in the total number of annual storms.
But warm water doesn’t just affect the likelihood that a storm will form in the first place. It also influences how intense the storm will get. Warmer water tends to favor stronger storms.
Accordingly, climate models project that hurricanes will be more intense in the future.
In fact, some research suggests that it’s already happening. A study published earlier this year in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, led by Kossin, found that cyclone intensity has been increasing over the last four decades.
So what about the rest of this year?
Researchers at Colorado State University release an Atlantic hurricane forecast each year. The team recently updated this season’s forecast, predicting an “extremely active” 2020 season.
The new forecast calls for 24 named storms, 12 of which become hurricanes and five of which turn into major storms. A typical season sees six hurricanes, only three of which achieve Category 3 or higher.
If the forecast holds true, that means both an above-average number of storms and an above-average number of intense storms for 2020.
The proportion of intense storms—about half the total number of hurricanes—is still projected to be about average this year. But that could change in the coming years.
And while the number of storms has grabbed public attention this year, the strength of the hurricanes is really the thing to pay attention to in the end, Emanuel said.
“We’ve had all these storms this year, and not one of them has become very strong at all, nor has any one of them done a lot of damage,” he told E&E News. “What the people who have to make decisions are worried about is the intense storms. And what we really ought to be focused on is what controls their frequency. And unfortunately what the models show is the frequency of those guys going up, even if the [total] frequency of storms goes down.”
Reprinted from Climatewire with permission from E&E News. E&E provides daily coverage of essential energy and environmental news at www.eenews.net.


scientificamerican--2020-08-21--Mauritians Launch Rescue to Save Wildlife from Oil Spill

Beau Bassin–Rose Hill , Mauritius—Nearly two weeks after the Japanese-owned , Panamanian-flagged ship MV Wakashio ran aground off the coast of Mauritius late last month—immediately destroying more than 600 yards of fragile coral reefs—the bulk carrier began leaking oil into the pristine blue lagoons of the Indian Ocean island .
The spill threatened to do much greater damage than the ship itself .
Within hours of the leak , more than 5,000 local volunteers and dozens of career conservationists jumped into action to save their remote nation ’ s vibrant , unique wildlife by controlling the oil and moving some @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Like other isolated islands , Mauritius developed rich and diverse ecosystems .
But starting about 400 years ago , successive Dutch , French and British settlements butchered the natural habitat , leaving only 2 percent of its native vegetation intact and killing off the famous dodo .
Since winning independence from the U.K. more than 50 years ago , the nation has worked to restore its ecosystems .
Mauritius has a high-income economy and a multicultural population , and it is one of the world ’ s most peaceful countries , renowned @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on these shores , near the picturesque coastal villages of Mahébourg and Pointe d ’ Esny , that volunteers gathered to build floating “ sorbent booms ” made of chains of stretch nets filled with dried sugarcane leaves that act as barriers that slow the oil ’ s spread .
Research has shown that natural materials ( such as dried sugarcane leaf or straw ) are good at trapping oil in their matted , crisscrossed fibers .
Additional volunteers gathered in shopping malls and public areas around the island to build the booms @ @ @ @ @ @ @ them near the wreck site in the Grand Port Lagoon , off the southeastern coast of the island .
Booms can only do so much , though—especially when buffeted by high waves and a strong current , which still spread much of the leaked oil .
It quickly surrounded the lagoon ’ s majestic coral islet of Ile aux Aigrettes .
The 67-acre island has been a nature reserve for decades , with 80 percent of its forests restored following the deforestation started by European colonists .
It is a sanctuary for hundreds @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are threatened and found only in and around Mauritius .
Conservationists at the Mauritian Wildlife Foundation ( MWF ) had started preparing for the eventuality of spreading oil as soon as the ship ran aground , and they swiftly implemented a well-rehearsed plan to evacuate some of the animals and plants that were most at risk .
“ We had to relocate critically endangered species first , then we moved to endangered ones , ” says Vikash Tatayah , MWF ’ s conservation director .
Within hours , teams had relocated 4,000 plants @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Aerva congesta , an endemic herb found on a mere 2,000 acres of the entire planet .
This extraordinary rescue was only possible with the help of local laborers , who carried plants potted by MWF staff and evacuated them by boat .
Conservationists hope to return most of the plants to Ile aux Aigrettes once it is safe to do so .
Relocating some of the islet ’ s rare birds was trickier .
It took two days and six MWF staff , battling against toxic fumes from the oil spill , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s a very slow process , ” Tatayah says .
“ We use mist nets or catch them at food stations when they come to feed.
” ( The birds live in the wild , but conservationists had set up feeders to help supplement their diet as Ile aux Aigrettes is restored . )
Catching the birds and moving them to the main island is crucial to secure their populations in case the spill causes a catastrophic collapse in their numbers .
Of the 18 birds the MWF staff caught , six @ @ @ @ @ @ @ species .
Another 12 were Mauritius olive white-eyes , a critically endangered olive-gray bird that has characteristic white rims around its eyes and is no taller than the average human index finger .
The Mauritius olive white-eye is also the nation ’ s rarest endemic bird ; a 2016 thesis paper suggests it could go extinct within 50 years .
But following extensive conservation efforts involving artificial egg incubation , feeding chicks from a menu that included bee larvae , scrambled eggs and papaya , and years of release and monitoring , 73 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the islet before the emergency evacuation .
Just more than two weeks after the spill , with most of the more than 1,000 tons of oil that seeped into the sea removed , there is still considerable uncertainty about the extent of damage it will cause—particularly below the sea surface .
Some fear the worst : Even before the spill , Pramod Kumar Chumun , an environmental scientist at a local nongovernmental conservation organization called Eco-Sud , and his team had recently been seeing more coral bleaching .
They have documented a decrease @ @ @ @ @ @ @ areas of the Grand Port Lagoon .
For more than two years the researchers have been growing corals from fragments broken off by boats and relocating them to some of those degraded areas .
They were hoping to propagate 1,000 or so coral colonies , but the oil spill has forced them to pause , leaving budding corals in the nurseries to fend for themselves .
“ I ’ m not sure what ’ s going to happen to our coral nurseries , ” Chumun says .
“ We couldn ’ t care @ @ @ @ @ @ @ lockdown , and some died .
This oil spill is not helping.
” Some past research on the effects of oil spills paints a gloomy picture overall .
For example , a long-term assessment of impact on Caribbean Sea corals from a 1986 crude oil spill in Bahía Las Minas , Panama , found extensive mortality .
Nearly all of the affected area ’ s branching corals were killed , and there was no evidence of recovery five years after the spill .
Further , a team of U.S. researchers has found that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of larger predator fish , including tuna—which are plentiful in Mauritian waters—and also causes jaw defects , small eyes and other malformations .
But every oil spill is unique .
There are many variables , such as the type and blend of oil involved .
Marine ecosystems also have their own special complexities , so comparisons can be imperfect .
To get a better sense of the damage in Mauritius , “ we need to survey the coast and go beyond the oil-spill zone to see if there are any changes to the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Jacqueline Sauzier , president of the Mauritius Marine Conservation Society .
Only then will conservationists know what it will take to remedy the damage .

Beau Bassin–Rose Hill, Mauritius—Nearly two weeks after the Japanese-owned, Panamanian-flagged ship MV Wakashio ran aground off the coast of Mauritius late last month—immediately destroying more than 600 yards of fragile coral reefs—the bulk carrier began leaking oil into the pristine blue lagoons of the Indian Ocean island. The spill threatened to do much greater damage than the ship itself.
Within hours of the leak, more than 5,000 local volunteers and dozens of career conservationists jumped into action to save their remote nation’s vibrant, unique wildlife by controlling the oil and moving some species out of harm’s way.
Like other isolated islands, Mauritius developed rich and diverse ecosystems. But starting about 400 years ago, successive Dutch, French and British settlements butchered the natural habitat, leaving only 2 percent of its native vegetation intact and killing off the famous dodo. Since winning independence from the U.K. more than 50 years ago, the nation has worked to restore its ecosystems. Mauritius has a high-income economy and a multicultural population, and it is one of the world’s most peaceful countries, renowned for its idyllic shores.
It is on these shores, near the picturesque coastal villages of Mahébourg and Pointe d’Esny, that volunteers gathered to build floating “sorbent booms” made of chains of stretch nets filled with dried sugarcane leaves that act as barriers that slow the oil’s spread. Research has shown that natural materials (such as dried sugarcane leaf or straw) are good at trapping oil in their matted, crisscrossed fibers. Additional volunteers gathered in shopping malls and public areas around the island to build the booms, deploying more than 400 yards of them near the wreck site in the Grand Port Lagoon, off the southeastern coast of the island.
Plants from Ile aux Aigrettes were potted and evacuated by boat. Credit: Nik Cole Mauritian Wildlife Foundation
Booms can only do so much, though—especially when buffeted by high waves and a strong current, which still spread much of the leaked oil. It quickly surrounded the lagoon’s majestic coral islet of Ile aux Aigrettes. The 67-acre island has been a nature reserve for decades, with 80 percent of its forests restored following the deforestation started by European colonists. It is a sanctuary for hundreds of birds, reptiles and plants that are threatened and found only in and around Mauritius.
Conservationists at the Mauritian Wildlife Foundation (MWF) had started preparing for the eventuality of spreading oil as soon as the ship ran aground, and they swiftly implemented a well-rehearsed plan to evacuate some of the animals and plants that were most at risk. “We had to relocate critically endangered species first, then we moved to endangered ones,” says Vikash Tatayah, MWF’s conservation director.
Within hours, teams had relocated 4,000 plants from 40 species, including the rare Aerva congesta, an endemic herb found on a mere 2,000 acres of the entire planet. This extraordinary rescue was only possible with the help of local laborers, who carried plants potted by MWF staff and evacuated them by boat. Conservationists hope to return most of the plants to Ile aux Aigrettes once it is safe to do so.
Relocating some of the islet’s rare birds was trickier. It took two days and six MWF staff, battling against toxic fumes from the oil spill, to catch 18 birds. “It’s a very slow process,” Tatayah says. “We use mist nets or catch them at food stations when they come to feed.” (The birds live in the wild, but conservationists had set up feeders to help supplement their diet as Ile aux Aigrettes is restored.)
Catching the birds and moving them to the main island is crucial to secure their populations in case the spill causes a catastrophic collapse in their numbers. Of the 18 birds the MWF staff caught, six were Mauritius fodies, a rare endemic species. Another 12 were Mauritius olive white-eyes, a critically endangered olive-gray bird that has characteristic white rims around its eyes and is no taller than the average human index finger. The Mauritius olive white-eye is also the nation’s rarest endemic bird; a 2016 thesis paper suggests it could go extinct within 50 years. But following extensive conservation efforts involving artificial egg incubation, feeding chicks from a menu that included bee larvae, scrambled eggs and papaya, and years of release and monitoring, 73 olive white-eyes were in the wild on the islet before the emergency evacuation.
Just more than two weeks after the spill, with most of the more than 1,000 tons of oil that seeped into the sea removed, there is still considerable uncertainty about the extent of damage it will cause—particularly below the sea surface. Some fear the worst: Even before the spill, Pramod Kumar Chumun, an environmental scientist at a local nongovernmental conservation organization called Eco-Sud, and his team had recently been seeing more coral bleaching. They have documented a decrease in coral cover and diversity in specific areas of the Grand Port Lagoon. For more than two years the researchers have been growing corals from fragments broken off by boats and relocating them to some of those degraded areas. They were hoping to propagate 1,000 or so coral colonies, but the oil spill has forced them to pause, leaving budding corals in the nurseries to fend for themselves. “I’m not sure what’s going to happen to our coral nurseries,” Chumun says. “We couldn’t care for them during the [COVID-19] lockdown, and some died. This oil spill is not helping.”
Some past research on the effects of oil spills paints a gloomy picture overall. For example, a long-term assessment of impact on Caribbean Sea corals from a 1986 crude oil spill in Bahía Las Minas, Panama, found extensive mortality. Nearly all of the affected area’s branching corals were killed, and there was no evidence of recovery five years after the spill. Further, a team of U.S. researchers has found that exposure to oil impacts the developing hearts of larger predator fish, including tuna—which are plentiful in Mauritian waters—and also causes jaw defects, small eyes and other malformations.
But every oil spill is unique. There are many variables, such as the type and blend of oil involved. Marine ecosystems also have their own special complexities, so comparisons can be imperfect.
To get a better sense of the damage in Mauritius, “we need to survey the coast and go beyond the oil-spill zone to see if there are any changes to the region’s ecosystem,” says Jacqueline Sauzier, president of the Mauritius Marine Conservation Society. Only then will conservationists know what it will take to remedy the damage.


scientificamerican--2020-08-21--'Instant Coffee' COVID-19 Tests Could Be the Answer to Reopening the U.S.

With the economy tanking , unemployment skyrocketing , schools slamming their doors and the Big Ten and PAC-12 conferences canceling fall football , America is a country looking for an answer to COVID-19 yesterday .
And one might be available—if you can handle instant coffee rather than espresso .
The coffee analogy is one used by Michael Mina , assistant professor of epidemiology at the Harvard T. H. Chan School of Public Health , and it ’ s meant to describe the functional difference between two approaches to rapid testing for the virus .
In this case , easy and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ be better .
“ This is the most important potential tool that could exist today , ” Mina said in a recent interview .
“ We pretty much have a different way…to stop community transmission in the absence of a vaccine—and it is sitting right in front of us.
” Daily or near-daily testing could be the key to opening our society , and that comes down to making the tests widely available and affordable .
If you had the option to test yourself in the morning by spitting into a tube ( @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 15 minutes for the results , and if it cost you no more than a couple of dollars , wouldn ’ t you jump at that chance ?
Mina breaks down the existing tests into two camps .
“ Espresso coffee ” tests are reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction ( RT-PCR ) tests or deluxe antigen tests , and several manufacturers , like Mesa Biotech , Quidel and Becton , Dickinson , have already been granted Emergency Use Authorization ( EUA ) by the Food and Drug Administration ( FDA ) .
These @ @ @ @ @ @ @ machine to churn out the results , and are expensive—anywhere from $ 30 to $ 150 per test .
They also may have longer turnaround times ; even Yale University ’ s SalivaDirect , which just received EUA on August 15 and costs only about $ 10 , must be submitted to and processed by a central laboratory .
In sharp contrast lie the “ instant coffee ” rapid paper antigen tests , including those made by E25Bio and Sherlock Biosciences , and one under development by 3M and MIT .
These are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ tests , and some are really inexpensive : about $ 1 to $ 5 per test .
They are called lateral flow assays , but manifestly they are paper-strip tests that have an antibody embedded on filter paper .
If a saliva sample has coronavirus present , the antibody will bind that viral antigen , turning the test positive , much like a pregnancy test works .
Though the tests have much lower sensitivity than PCR tests overall , one advantage they have is that they do not detect leftover , inactive viral @ @ @ @ @ @ @ days to weeks after a person is infectious .
Here ’ s the key : What is more important than a perfect test is one that turns positive during the time period in which an individual can spread the virus to others—and that ’ s , purportedly , what these cheap tests do well .
Generally , disease transmission in COVID-19 is believed to begin early—several days before one becomes symptomatic .
Viral load levels peak early and then they gradually decline , with an individual unlikely to be infectious approximately eight to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ efficacy needs to be better proven , these antigen tests are efficient at detecting virus at high viral loads .
When they are used frequently during this period of infectivity , Mina believes their sensitivity and performance would far exceed that of a single PCR test .
At any rate , Mina and his colleagues have demonstrated in their statistical models that public health surveillance depends much more on frequency of testing and rapid reporting of results than it does on the comparative sensitivity of the tests themselves .
If everyone made use @ @ @ @ @ @ @ could very quickly get this pandemic under control .
A positive COVID-19 test would mean the individual stays home ; a negative test would mean he/she goes to work , or school or practice , or to shop or dine .
Under this approach , the prevalence of the virus in the community would drop considerably—and contact tracing wouldn ’ t be needed , because everyone would already be doing the testing .
Like almost everything connected with our effort to control COVID-19 , the research related to this rapid-test system is not @ @ @ @ @ @ @ several important limitations to their study , among them potential manufacturer variations in testing characteristics , improper clinical sampling , possible assumptions made related to viral kinetics and perhaps an erroneous belief that everybody would participate in such a plan .
But the bigger problem may be finding the tests at all .
Why haven ’ t we seen them in the drug stores ?
The answer is that the FDA is holding developers of these tests , like E25Bio , to the same high sensitivity standards as those required for molecular grade @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , the companies are not manufacturing the tests .
Mina and others argue that a paradigm shift is needed , so that rapid antigen tests are recognized as a “ public health tool , '' which when combined with frequent use , will identify infectious individuals .
It will likely take placing the full weight of the federal government ( or someone of influence , like Bill Gates ) behind these companies in order to shore things up , further vet the test ’ s accuracy during the window of infectivity , solve @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , so that 50 million to 150 million tests could be performed by Americans each day .
Given how low-tech the strips are , such mass production should be feasible .
This type of frequent , low-cost surveillance testing of people at home—especially while they ’ re asymptomatic—would go a long way toward helping contain our current outbreak .
This could be the key we have all been looking for to unlock our front doors and get back to business—or pleasure .

With the economy tanking, unemployment skyrocketing, schools slamming their doors and the Big Ten and PAC-12 conferences canceling fall football, America is a country looking for an answer to COVID-19 yesterday. And one might be available—if you can handle instant coffee rather than espresso.
The coffee analogy is one used by Michael Mina, assistant professor of epidemiology at the Harvard T. H. Chan School of Public Health, and it’s meant to describe the functional difference between two approaches to rapid testing for the virus. In this case, easy and cheap—instant coffee, that is—may very well be better.
“This is the most important potential tool that could exist today,” Mina said in a recent interview. “We pretty much have a different way…to stop community transmission in the absence of a vaccine—and it is sitting right in front of us.”
Daily or near-daily testing could be the key to opening our society, and that comes down to making the tests widely available and affordable. If you had the option to test yourself in the morning by spitting into a tube (or swabbing your nose) and waiting 15 minutes for the results, and if it cost you no more than a couple of dollars, wouldn’t you jump at that chance?
Mina breaks down the existing tests into two camps. “Espresso coffee” tests are reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) tests or deluxe antigen tests, and several manufacturers, like Mesa Biotech, Quidel and Becton, Dickinson, have already been granted Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) by the Food and Drug Administration (FDA). These tests are highly sensitive, require a machine to churn out the results, and are expensive—anywhere from $30 to $150 per test. They also may have longer turnaround times; even Yale University’s SalivaDirect, which just received EUA on August 15 and costs only about $10, must be submitted to and processed by a central laboratory.
In sharp contrast lie the “instant coffee” rapid paper antigen tests, including one made by E25Bio, and one under development by 3M and MIT. These are fast, simple to use, at-home tests, and some are really inexpensive: about $1 to $5 per test. They are called lateral flow assays, but manifestly they are paper-strip tests that have an antibody embedded on filter paper. If a saliva sample has coronavirus present, the antibody will bind that viral antigen, turning the test positive, much like a pregnancy test works. Though the tests have much lower sensitivity than PCR tests overall, one advantage they have is that they do not detect leftover, inactive viral RNA particles, which may be present days to weeks after a person is infectious.
Here’s the key: What is more important than a perfect test is one that turns positive during the time period in which an individual can spread the virus to others—and that’s, purportedly, what these cheap tests do well. Generally, disease transmission in COVID-19 is believed to begin early—several days before one becomes symptomatic. Viral load levels peak early and then they gradually decline, with an individual unlikely to be infectious approximately eight to 10 days after showing symptoms.
Though efficacy needs to be better proven, these antigen tests are efficient at detecting virus at high viral loads. When they are used frequently during this period of infectivity, Mina believes their sensitivity and performance would far exceed that of a single PCR test. At any rate, Mina and his colleagues have demonstrated in their statistical models that public health surveillance depends much more on frequency of testing and rapid reporting of results than it does on the comparative sensitivity of the tests themselves.
If everyone made use of such an affordable alternative, we could very quickly get this pandemic under control. A positive COVID-19 test would mean the individual stays home; a negative test would mean he/she goes to work, or school or practice, or to shop or dine. Under this approach, the prevalence of the virus in the community would drop considerably—and contact tracing wouldn’t be needed, because everyone would already be doing the testing.
Like almost everything connected with our effort to control COVID-19, the research related to this rapid-test system is not perfect. Mina and his colleagues acknowledged several important limitations to their study, among them potential manufacturer variations in testing characteristics, improper clinical sampling, possible assumptions made related to viral kinetics and perhaps an erroneous belief that everybody would participate in such a plan.
But the bigger problem may be finding the tests at all. Why haven’t we seen them in the drug stores? The answer is that the FDA is holding developers of these tests, like E25Bio, to the same high sensitivity standards as those required for molecular grade diagnostics. Without being granted an EUA, the companies are not manufacturing the tests. Mina and others argue that a paradigm shift is needed, so that rapid antigen tests are recognized as a “public health tool," which when combined with frequent use, will identify infectious individuals.
It will likely take placing the full weight of the federal government (or someone of influence, like Bill Gates) behind these companies in order to shore things up, further vet the test’s accuracy during the window of infectivity, solve regulatory issues and rapidly ramp up production, so that 50 million to 150 million tests could be performed by Americans each day. Given how low-tech the strips are, such mass production should be feasible.
This type of frequent, low-cost surveillance testing of people at home—especially while they’re asymptomatic—would go a long way toward helping contain our current outbreak. This could be the key we have all been looking for to unlock our front doors and get back to business—or pleasure.
Dark Roast Instant, anyone? I’m buying.


scientificamerican--2020-08-22--Another Tragic Epidemic: Suicide

Another Tragic Epidemic: Suicide

Another epidemic besides COVID-19 stalks the land .
This one takes a heavy toll on the young .
It has been raging ever more lethally for the past 20 years with no flattening of the curve in sight : an American epidemic of suicide .
Between 1999 and 2017 the age-adjusted suicide rate in the U.S. climbed 33 percent , from 10.5 to 14 deaths per 100,000 people , according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention .
And the rise has been accelerating .
The rate of suicide—the second leading cause of death in the U.S. among people @ @ @ @ @ @ @ overall—rose by an average of 1 percent a year between 1999 and 2006 , after which it rose at double that pace .
And although males in every age group are far more likely to take their own lives than girls and women are , females are slowly closing the gap .
Every year seems to bring a fresh helping of these dark statistics .
A new CDC analysis looked at both suicide attempts and mortality .
It reported that the sharpest rise in attempts—up a shocking 8 percent annually between 2006 and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
( The study captured only the attempts that led to a hospital visit . )
Nearly 80 percent of attempts were among people younger than 45 , although there was also a rise in the 65-to-74 age group .
As others have found , the incidence of attempts , as well as of fatalities , was shown to be rising faster in women and girls than in men and boys .
Sadly , this “ was not surprising to us , ” says lead author Jing Wang , an epidemiologist at the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and Control .
The study also documented a rise in lethality—that is , a higher rate of attempts that resulted in death .
Measuring trends is a lot easier than explaining them .
The suicide epidemic among adolescents and young adults , for example , “ is consistent with the broader finding on rising rates of depression and depressed mood in young people , ” says psychiatrist and epidemiologist Mark Olfson of Columbia University .
On the other hand , he notes , “ it 's a real puzzle that suicide rates are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ use is going down in this age group.
” The two usually go hand in hand .
A possible factor is how much time young people spend with digital devices .
A 2018 study that drew on data from more than half a million teenagers , led by psychologist Jean Twenge of San Diego State University , found that screen time correlates with depressive symptoms and suicide-related behaviors ( considering it , making a plan , attempting it ) , especially for girls .
“ The rise in social media , the threat @ @ @ @ @ @ @ can be a triggering event , ” Olfson says , but in terms of causality , he notes , “ it 's a difficult hypothesis to evaluate.
” Wang mentions other factors for which there is indirect evidence , such as parental use of opioids and exposure to a loved one 's suicide .
Among adults , suicide attempts track with the lack of a college degree , age between 21 and 34 , very low income , mental illness , and a history of violence or past suicide attempts , a large @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Adults are much more likely than teenagers to actually kill themselves , in part because they have easier access to more lethal means such as guns and because they are more planful and less impulsive .
Adults who take their own lives are predominantly male and white or Native American , often with a history of substance use , mental disorders , past attempts , loneliness and personal loss .
Mental health professionals worry that the social isolation , financial hardships and anxiety related to the coronavirus pandemic might worsen suicide trends @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the U.S. has shown that for every 1 percent rise in unemployment , there is a 0.8 to 1 percent jump in suicides .
The pattern could be different in 2020 if people get back to work quickly or if the response is more akin to that in a time of war .
“ The rates go down in wartime , maybe because people feel more joined to a larger cause , ” says Michael Hogan , who served as commissioner of mental health in New York , Connecticut and Ohio .
Still @ @ @ @ @ @ @ who is also a founder of the Zero Suicide movement , argues that rather than waiting to address such massive issues as mental illness , unemployment and loneliness , it makes sense to focus on low-cost interventions that start closer to the critical period when thoughts of suicide take hold .
One key idea is to ensure that medical personnel screen for such thoughts as routinely as they check blood pressure and to train them in next steps for vulnerable people .
A number of interventions , including support from crisis hotlines , @ @ @ @ @ @ @

Another epidemic besides COVID-19 stalks the land. This one takes a heavy toll on the young. It has been raging ever more lethally for the past 20 years with no flattening of the curve in sight: an American epidemic of suicide.
Between 1999 and 2017 the age-adjusted suicide rate in the U.S. climbed 33 percent, from 10.5 to 14 deaths per 100,000 people, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. And the rise has been accelerating. The rate of suicide—the second leading cause of death in the U.S. among people ages 10 to 34 and the tenth overall—rose by an average of 1 percent a year between 1999 and 2006, after which it rose at double that pace. And although males in every age group are far more likely to take their own lives than girls and women are, females are slowly closing the gap.
Every year seems to bring a fresh helping of these dark statistics. A new CDC analysis looked at both suicide attempts and mortality. It reported that the sharpest rise in attempts—up a shocking 8 percent annually between 2006 and 2015—occurred among youngsters ages 10 to 19. (The study captured only the attempts that led to a hospital visit.) Nearly 80 percent of attempts were among people younger than 45, although there was also a rise in the 65-to-74 age group. As others have found, the incidence of attempts, as well as of fatalities, was shown to be rising faster in women and girls than in men and boys. Sadly, this “was not surprising to us,” says lead author Jing Wang, an epidemiologist at the CDC's National Center for Injury Prevention and Control. The study also documented a rise in lethality—that is, a higher rate of attempts that resulted in death.
Measuring trends is a lot easier than explaining them. The suicide epidemic among adolescents and young adults, for example, “is consistent with the broader finding on rising rates of depression and depressed mood in young people,” says psychiatrist and epidemiologist Mark Olfson of Columbia University. On the other hand, he notes, “it's a real puzzle that suicide rates are going up at a time when substance use is going down in this age group.” The two usually go hand in hand.
A possible factor is how much time young people spend with digital devices. A 2018 study that drew on data from more than half a million teenagers, led by psychologist Jean Twenge of San Diego State University, found that screen time correlates with depressive symptoms and suicide-related behaviors (considering it, making a plan, attempting it), especially for girls. “The rise in social media, the threat of cyberbullying, of being ostracized, can be a triggering event,” Olfson says, but in terms of causality, he notes, “it's a difficult hypothesis to evaluate.” Wang mentions other factors for which there is indirect evidence, such as parental use of opioids and exposure to a loved one's suicide.
Among adults, suicide attempts track with the lack of a college degree, age between 21 and 34, very low income, mental illness, and a history of violence or past suicide attempts, a large study by Olfson and his colleagues found. Adults are much more likely than teenagers to actually kill themselves, in part because they have easier access to more lethal means such as guns and because they are more planful and less impulsive. Adults who take their own lives are predominantly male and white or Native American, often with a history of substance use, mental disorders, past attempts, loneliness and personal loss.
Mental health professionals worry that the social isolation, financial hardships and anxiety related to the coronavirus pandemic might worsen suicide trends. Past research in Europe and in the U.S. has shown that for every 1 percent rise in unemployment, there is a 0.8 to 1 percent jump in suicides. The pattern could be different in 2020 if people get back to work quickly or if the response is more akin to that in a time of war. “The rates go down in wartime, maybe because people feel more joined to a larger cause,” says Michael Hogan, who served as commissioner of mental health in New York, Connecticut and Ohio. Still, he's concerned.
Hogan, who is also a founder of the Zero Suicide movement, argues that rather than waiting to address such massive issues as mental illness, unemployment and loneliness, it makes sense to focus on low-cost interventions that start closer to the critical period when thoughts of suicide take hold. One key idea is to ensure that medical personnel screen for such thoughts as routinely as they check blood pressure and to train them in next steps for vulnerable people. A number of interventions, including support from crisis hotlines, could save lives—if offered in time.


scientificamerican--2020-08-22--College Coronavirus Testing Plans Are All Over the Map

Yousuf El-Jayyousi , a junior engineering student at the University of Missouri , wanted guidance and reassurance that it would be safe to go back to school for the fall semester .
He tuned into a pair of online town halls organized by the university hoping to find that .
He did not .
What he got instead from those town halls last month was encouragement to return to class at the institution affectionately known as Mizzou .
The university , in Columbia , would be testing only people with symptoms , and at that point , the university said @ @ @ @ @ @ @ under no obligation to inform the school .
“ It feels like the university doesn ’ t really care whether we get sick or not , ” said El-Jayyousi , who is scheduled for two in-person classes , and lives at home with his parents and 90-year-old grandmother .
He ’ s seen the studies from researchers at Yale and Harvard that suggest testing needs to be much more widespread .
He asked his instructors if he could join lectures remotely once classes begin Monday .
One was considering it ; the other @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of very dismissive , like ‘ so what ?
’ ” El-Jayyousi said .
But it ’ s an enormous “ so what ?
” packed with fear and unknowns for Jayyousi and some 20 million other students enrolled in some level of postsecondary education in America , if they are not already online only .
As with the uncoordinated and chaotic national response to the COVID-19 pandemic , higher education has no clear guidance or set of standards to adhere to from the federal government or anywhere else .
Policies for reentry @ @ @ @ @ @ @ March are all over the map .
According to the College Crisis Initiative , or C2i , a project of Davidson College that monitors how higher ed is responding to the pandemic , there is nothing resembling a common approach .
Of 2,958 institutions it follows , 151 were planning to open fully online , 729 were mostly online and 433 were taking a hybrid approach .
Just 75 schools were insisting on students attending fully in person , and 614 were aiming to be primarily in-person .
Some 800 others were still @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to start .
The decisions often have little correlation with the public health advisories in the region .
Mizzou , which is in an area with recent COVID spikes , is holding some in-person instruction and has nearly 7,000 students signed up to live in dorms and other university-owned housing .
Harvard , in a region with extremely low rates of viral spread , has opted to go all online and allowed students to defer a year .
The specific circumstances colleges and universities face are as much determined by local fiscal and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
It is often unclear who is making the call .
So it ’ s every-student-for-herself to chart these unknown waters , even as students ( or their families ) have written tuition checks for tens of thousands of dollars and signed leases for campus and off-campus housing .
And the risks—health , educational and financial—boomerang back on individual students : Two weeks after University of North Carolina students , as instructed , returned to the flagship campus in Chapel Hill with the promise of at least some in-person learning , all classes @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a few students to more than 130 in a matter of days .
Most undergrads have about a week to clear out of their dorms .
“ It ’ s really tough , ” said neuroscience major Luke Lawless , 20 .
“ Chapel Hill is an amazing place , and as a senior it ’ s tough to know that my time ’ s running out—and the virus only adds to that.
” C2i ’ s creator , Davidson education Assistant Professor Chris Marsicano , said the extreme diversity of approaches comes @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the penchant of many to follow the leads of more prestigious peers , and local politics .
“ Some states have very strong and stringent mask requirements .
Some have stronger stay-at-home orders .
Others are sort of leaving it up to localities .
So the confluence of politics , institutional isomorphism—that imitation—and different needs that the institutions have are driving the differences , ” Marsicano said .
Location matters a lot , too , Marsicano said , pointing to schools like George Washington University and Boston University in urban settings where the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ school , versus a place like the University of the South in remote , rural Sewanee , Tennessee , where 90 % of students will return to campus .
“ It ’ s a lot easier to control an outbreak if you are a fairly isolated college campus than if you are in the middle of a city , ” Marsicano said .
Student behavior is another wild card , Marsicano said , since even the best plans will fail if college kids “ do something stupid , like have a massive frat @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ve got student affairs professionals across the country who are screaming at the top of their lungs , ‘ We can ’ t control student behavior when they go off campus ’ ” Marsicano said .
Another factor is a vacuum at the federal level .
Although the Department of Education says Secretary Betsy DeVos has held dozens of calls with governors and state education superintendents , there ’ s no sign of an attempt to offer unified guidance to colleges beyond a webpage that links to relaxed regulatory requirements and anodyne fact @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and Prevention on preventing viral spread .
Even the money that the department notes it has dispensed— $ 30 billion from Congress ’ CARES Act—is weighted toward K-12 schools , with about $ 13 billion for higher education , including student aid .
The U.S. Senate adjourned last week until Sept. 8 , having never taken up a House-passed relief package that included some $ 30 billion for higher education .
A trio of Democratic senators , including Sen. Elizabeth Warren , is calling for national reporting standards on college campuses .
Campus @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are making opposite calls about in-person learning .
Mizzou ’ s Boone County has seen more than 1,400 confirmed COVID cases after a spike in mid-July .
According to the Harvard Global Health Institute ’ s COVID risk map , Boone has accelerated spread , with 14 infections per day per 100,000 people .
The institute advises stay-at-home orders or rigorous testing and tracing at such rates of infection .
Two neighboring counties were in the red zone recently , with more than 25 cases per day per 100,000 people .
Mizzou has @ @ @ @ @ @ @ will meet in person , making a strong argument for face-to-face instruction .
Meanwhile , Columbia University in New York City opted for all online instruction , even though the rate of infection there is a comparatively low 3.8 cases per day per 100,000 people .
Administrators at Mizzou considered and rejected mandatory testing .
“ All that does is provide one a snapshot of the situation , ” University of Missouri system President Mun Choi said in one of the town halls .
Mizzou has an in-house team that will carry out @ @ @ @ @ @ @ local health department .
This week , following questions from the press and pressure from the public , the university announced students will be required to report any positive COVID test to the school .
Who Do You Test ?
When ?
CDC guidance for higher education suggests there ’ s not enough data to know whether testing everyone is effective , but some influential researchers , such as those at Harvard and Yale , disagree .
“ This virus is subject to silent spreading and asymptomatic spreading , and it ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ said Yale professor David Paltiel , who studies public health policy .
“ And so thinking that you can keep your campus safe by simply waiting until students develop symptoms before acting , I think , is a very dangerous game.
” Simulation models conducted by Paltiel and his colleagues show that , of all the factors university administrators can control—including the sensitivity and specificity of COVID-19 tests—the frequency of testing is most important .
He ’ s “ painfully aware ” that testing everyone on campus every few days sets a very @ @ @ @ @ @ @ be beyond what most schools can reach .
But he says the consequences of reopening campuses without those measures are severe , not just for students , but for vulnerable populations among school workers and in the surrounding community .
“ You really have to ask yourself whether you have any business reopening if you ’ re not going to commit to an aggressive program of high-frequency testing , ” he said .
Some institutions that desperately want students to return to campus are backing the goal with a maximal approach to safety @ @ @ @ @ @ @ east along the interstates from Mizzou is the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign , whose sports teams are known as the Fighting Illini .
Weeks ago , large white tents with signs reading “ Walk-Up COVID-19 Testing ” have popped up across campus ; there students take a simple saliva test .
“ This seems to be a lot easier than sticking a cotton swab up your nose , ” graduate student Kristen Muñoz said after collecting a bit of her saliva in a plastic tube and sealing it in a bag labeled @ @ @ @ @ @ @ hours , she got back her result : negative .
The school plans to offer free tests to the 50,000 students expected to return this month , as well as some 11,000 faculty and staff members .
“ The exciting thing is , because we can test up to 10,000 per day , it allows the scientist to do what ’ s really the best for trying to protect the community as opposed to having to cut corners , because of the limitations of the testing , ” said University of Illinois chemist @ @ @ @ @ @ @ campus ’ s saliva test , which received emergency use authorization from the federal Food and Drug Administration this week .
The test is similar to one designed by Yale and funded by the NBA that cleared the FDA hurdle just before the Illinois test .
Both Yale and Illinois hope aggressive testing will allow most undergraduate students to live on campus , even though most classes will be online .
University of Illinois epidemiologist Becky Smith said they are following data that suggest campuses need to test everyone every few days because @ @ @ @ @ @ @ people for three or four days .
“ But about two days after that , your infectiousness peaks , ” she said .
“ So , we have a very small window of time in which to catch people before they have done most of the infection that they ’ re going to be doing.
” Campus officials accepted Smith ’ s recommendation that all faculty , staffers and students participating in any on-campus activities be required to get tested twice a week .
Illinois can do that because its test is convenient @ @ @ @ @ @ @ campus from using as much personal protective equipment as the more invasive tests require , Burke said .
And on-site analysis avoids backlogs at public health and commercial labs .
Most other colleges fall somewhere between the approaches of Mizzou and the University of Illinois , and many of their students still are uncertain how their fall semester will go .
At the University of Southern California , a private campus of about 48,500 students in Los Angeles , officials had hoped to have about 20 % of classes in person—but the county @ @ @ @ @ @ @ tougher rules for reopening than the statewide standards .
If students eventually are allowed back , they will have to show a recent coronavirus test result that they obtained on their own , said Dr. Sarah Van Orman , chief health officer of USC Student Health .
They will be asked to do daily health assessments , such as fever checks , and those who have been exposed to the virus or show symptoms will receive a rapid test , with about a 24-hour turnaround through the university medical center ’ s lab @ @ @ @ @ @ @ important to have very rapid access to those results , ” Van Orman said .
At California State University—the nation ’ s largest four-year system , with 23 campuses and nearly a half-million students—officials decided back in May to move nearly all its fall courses online .
“ The first priority was really the health and safety of all of the campus community , ” said Mike Uhlenkamp , spokesperson for the CSU Chancellor ’ s Office .
About 10 % of CSU students are expected to attend some in-person classes , such @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and dance classes , and some graduate classes .
Uhlenkamp said testing protocols are being left up to each campus , though all are required to follow local safety guidelines .
And without a medical campus in the system , CSU campuses do not have the same capacity to take charge of their own testing , as the University of Illinois is doing .
For students who know they won ’ t be on campus this fall , there is regret at lost social experiences , networking and hands-on learning so important to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ relief .
“ I don ’ t think I would want to be indoors with a group of , you know , even just a handful of people , even if we have masks on , ” said Haley Gray , a 28-year-old graduate student at the University of California-Berkeley starting the second year of her journalism program .
She knows she won ’ t have access to Berkeley ’ s advanced media labs or the collaborative sessions students experience there .
And she said she realized the other day she probably won @ @ @ @ @ @ @ lounge and strike up unexpected friendships .
“ That ’ s a pretty big bummer but , you know , I think overall we ’ re all just doing our best , and given the circumstances , I feel pretty OK about it , ” she said .
This story is part of a partnership that includes KBIA , Illinois Public Media , Side Effects Public Media , NPR and Kaiser Health News .
This story was originally published by Kaiser Health News on August 21 2020 .
Read the original story here @

Yousuf El-Jayyousi, a junior engineering student at the University of Missouri, wanted guidance and reassurance that it would be safe to go back to school for the fall semester. He tuned into a pair of online town halls organized by the university hoping to find that.
He did not.
What he got instead from those town halls last month was encouragement to return to class at the institution affectionately known as Mizzou. The university, in Columbia, would be testing only people with symptoms, and at that point, the university said people who test positive off campus were under no obligation to inform the school.
“It feels like the university doesn’t really care whether we get sick or not,” said El-Jayyousi, who is scheduled for two in-person classes, and lives at home with his parents and 90-year-old grandmother.
He’s seen the studies from researchers at Yale and Harvard that suggest testing needs to be much more widespread. He asked his instructors if he could join lectures remotely once classes begin Monday. One was considering it; the other rejected it.
“It was kind of very dismissive, like ‘so what?’” El-Jayyousi said.
But it’s an enormous “so what?” packed with fear and unknowns for Jayyousi and some 20 million other students enrolled in some level of postsecondary education in America, if they are not already online only.
As with the uncoordinated and chaotic national response to the COVID-19 pandemic, higher education has no clear guidance or set of standards to adhere to from the federal government or anywhere else. Policies for reentry onto campuses that were abruptly shut in March are all over the map.
Hundreds Undecided
According to the College Crisis Initiative, or C2i, a project of Davidson College that monitors how higher ed is responding to the pandemic, there is nothing resembling a common approach. Of 2,958 institutions it follows, 151 were planning to open fully online, 729 were mostly online and 433 were taking a hybrid approach. Just 75 schools were insisting on students attending fully in person, and 614 were aiming to be primarily in-person. Some 800 others were still deciding, just weeks before instruction was to start.
The decisions often have little correlation with the public health advisories in the region. Mizzou, which is in an area with recent COVID spikes, is holding some in-person instruction and has nearly 7,000 students signed up to live in dorms and other university-owned housing. Harvard, in a region with extremely low rates of viral spread, has opted to go all online and allowed students to defer a year.
The specific circumstances colleges and universities face are as much determined by local fiscal and political dictates as by medicine and epidemiology. It is often unclear who is making the call. So it’s every-student-for-herself to chart these unknown waters, even as students (or their families) have written tuition checks for tens of thousands of dollars and signed leases for campus and off-campus housing.
And the risks—health, educational and financial—boomerang back on individual students: Two weeks after University of North Carolina students, as instructed, returned to the flagship campus in Chapel Hill with the promise of at least some in-person learning, all classes went online. Early outbreaks surged from a few students to more than 130 in a matter of days. Most undergrads have about a week to clear out of their dorms.
“It’s really tough,” said neuroscience major Luke Lawless, 20. “Chapel Hill is an amazing place, and as a senior it’s tough to know that my time’s running out—and the virus only adds to that.”
Location, Location, Location
C2i’s creator, Davidson education Assistant Professor Chris Marsicano, said the extreme diversity of approaches comes from the sheer diversity of schools, the penchant of many to follow the leads of more prestigious peers, and local politics.
“Some states have very strong and stringent mask requirements. Some have stronger stay-at-home orders. Others are sort of leaving it up to localities. So the confluence of politics, institutional isomorphism—that imitation—and different needs that the institutions have are driving the differences,” Marsicano said.
Location matters a lot, too, Marsicano said, pointing to schools like George Washington University and Boston University in urban settings where the environment is beyond the control of the school, versus a place like the University of the South in remote, rural Sewanee, Tennessee, where 90% of students will return to campus.
“It’s a lot easier to control an outbreak if you are a fairly isolated college campus than if you are in the middle of a city,” Marsicano said.
Student behavior is another wild card, Marsicano said, since even the best plans will fail if college kids “do something stupid, like have a massive frat party without masks.”
“You’ve got student affairs professionals across the country who are screaming at the top of their lungs, ‘We can’t control student behavior when they go off campus’” Marsicano said.
Another factor is a vacuum at the federal level. Although the Department of Education says Secretary Betsy DeVos has held dozens of calls with governors and state education superintendents, there’s no sign of an attempt to offer unified guidance to colleges beyond a webpage that links to relaxed regulatory requirements and anodyne fact sheets from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention on preventing viral spread.
Even the money that the department notes it has dispensed—$30 billion from Congress’ CARES Act—is weighted toward K-12 schools, with about $13 billion for higher education, including student aid.
The U.S. Senate adjourned last week until Sept. 8, having never taken up a House-passed relief package that included some $30 billion for higher education. A trio of Democratic senators, including Sen. Elizabeth Warren, is calling for national reporting standards on college campuses.
No Benchmarks
Campus communities with very different levels of contagion are making opposite calls about in-person learning. Mizzou’s Boone County has seen more than 1,400 confirmed COVID cases after a spike in mid-July. According to the Harvard Global Health Institute’s COVID risk map, Boone has accelerated spread, with 14 infections per day per 100,000 people. The institute advises stay-at-home orders or rigorous testing and tracing at such rates of infection. Two neighboring counties were in the red zone recently, with more than 25 cases per day per 100,000 people. Mizzou has left it up to deans whether classes will meet in person, making a strong argument for face-to-face instruction.
Meanwhile, Columbia University in New York City opted for all online instruction, even though the rate of infection there is a comparatively low 3.8 cases per day per 100,000 people.
Administrators at Mizzou considered and rejected mandatory testing. “All that does is provide one a snapshot of the situation,” University of Missouri system President Mun Choi said in one of the town halls.
Mizzou has an in-house team that will carry out case investigation and contact tracing with the local health department. This week, following questions from the press and pressure from the public, the university announced students will be required to report any positive COVID test to the school.
Who Do You Test? When?
CDC guidance for higher education suggests there’s not enough data to know whether testing everyone is effective, but some influential researchers, such as those at Harvard and Yale, disagree.
“This virus is subject to silent spreading and asymptomatic spreading, and it’s very hard to play catch-up,” said Yale professor David Paltiel, who studies public health policy. “And so thinking that you can keep your campus safe by simply waiting until students develop symptoms before acting, I think, is a very dangerous game.”
Simulation models conducted by Paltiel and his colleagues show that, of all the factors university administrators can control—including the sensitivity and specificity of COVID-19 tests—the frequency of testing is most important.
He’s “painfully aware” that testing everyone on campus every few days sets a very high bar—logistically, financially, behaviorally—that may be beyond what most schools can reach. But he says the consequences of reopening campuses without those measures are severe, not just for students, but for vulnerable populations among school workers and in the surrounding community.
“You really have to ask yourself whether you have any business reopening if you’re not going to commit to an aggressive program of high-frequency testing,” he said.
The Fighting—And Testing—Illini
Some institutions that desperately want students to return to campus are backing the goal with a maximal approach to safety and testing.
About a four-hour drive east along the interstates from Mizzou is the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, whose sports teams are known as the Fighting Illini.
Weeks ago, large white tents with signs reading “Walk-Up COVID-19 Testing” have popped up across campus; there students take a simple saliva test.
“This seems to be a lot easier than sticking a cotton swab up your nose,” graduate student Kristen Muñoz said after collecting a bit of her saliva in a plastic tube and sealing it in a bag labeled “Biohazard.”
In just a few hours, she got back her result: negative.
The school plans to offer free tests to the 50,000 students expected to return this month, as well as some 11,000 faculty and staff members.
“The exciting thing is, because we can test up to 10,000 per day, it allows the scientist to do what’s really the best for trying to protect the community as opposed to having to cut corners, because of the limitations of the testing,” said University of Illinois chemist Martin Burke, who helped develop the campus’s saliva test, which received emergency use authorization from the federal Food and Drug Administration this week.
The test is similar to one designed by Yale and funded by the NBA that cleared the FDA hurdle just before the Illinois test. Both Yale and Illinois hope aggressive testing will allow most undergraduate students to live on campus, even though most classes will be online.
University of Illinois epidemiologist Becky Smith said they are following data that suggest campuses need to test everyone every few days because the virus is not detectable in infected people for three or four days.
“But about two days after that, your infectiousness peaks,” she said. “So, we have a very small window of time in which to catch people before they have done most of the infection that they’re going to be doing.”
Campus officials accepted Smith’s recommendation that all faculty, staffers and students participating in any on-campus activities be required to get tested twice a week.
Illinois can do that because its test is convenient and not invasive, which spares the campus from using as much personal protective equipment as the more invasive tests require, Burke said. And on-site analysis avoids backlogs at public health and commercial labs.
Muddled in the Middle
Most other colleges fall somewhere between the approaches of Mizzou and the University of Illinois, and many of their students still are uncertain how their fall semester will go.
At the University of Southern California, a private campus of about 48,500 students in Los Angeles, officials had hoped to have about 20% of classes in person—but the county government scaled that back, insisting on tougher rules for reopening than the statewide standards.
If students eventually are allowed back, they will have to show a recent coronavirus test result that they obtained on their own, said Dr. Sarah Van Orman, chief health officer of USC Student Health.
They will be asked to do daily health assessments, such as fever checks, and those who have been exposed to the virus or show symptoms will receive a rapid test, with about a 24-hour turnaround through the university medical center’s lab. “We believe it is really important to have very rapid access to those results,” Van Orman said.
At California State University—the nation’s largest four-year system, with 23 campuses and nearly a half-million students—officials decided back in May to move nearly all its fall courses online.
“The first priority was really the health and safety of all of the campus community,” said Mike Uhlenkamp, spokesperson for the CSU Chancellor’s Office. About 10% of CSU students are expected to attend some in-person classes, such as nursing lab courses, fine art and dance classes, and some graduate classes.
Uhlenkamp said testing protocols are being left up to each campus, though all are required to follow local safety guidelines. And without a medical campus in the system, CSU campuses do not have the same capacity to take charge of their own testing, as the University of Illinois is doing.
For students who know they won’t be on campus this fall, there is regret at lost social experiences, networking and hands-on learning so important to college.
But the certainty also brings relief.
“I don’t think I would want to be indoors with a group of, you know, even just a handful of people, even if we have masks on,” said Haley Gray, a 28-year-old graduate student at the University of California-Berkeley starting the second year of her journalism program.
She knows she won’t have access to Berkeley’s advanced media labs or the collaborative sessions students experience there. And she said she realized the other day she probably won’t just sit around the student lounge and strike up unexpected friendships.
“That’s a pretty big bummer but, you know, I think overall we’re all just doing our best, and given the circumstances, I feel pretty OK about it,” she said.
This story is part of a partnership that includes KBIA, Illinois Public Media, Side Effects Public Media, NPR and Kaiser Health News.
This story was originally published by Kaiser Health News on August 21 2020. Read the original story here.


scientificamerican--2020-08-22--Prehistoric Marine Reptile Died After A Giant Meal

Hundreds of millions of years ago , reptilian predators called ichthyosaurs swam the seas .
Their fossils look fearsome .
But paleobiologist Ryosuke Motani of U.C .
Davis says they may have looked more like friendly dolphins .
`` Maybe in life ichthyosaurs would have been cute—at least the smaller ones . ''
Motani 's team studied one such specimen found in southwest China .
It was 240 million years old .
15 feet long .
But it seemed to have some EXTRA bones in it—which Motani 's team determined to be the remains of a 13-foot-long thalattosaur , or @ @ @ @ @ @ @ had swallowed .
And , spoiler alert—the only reason they were able to SEE this animal in the belly of the ichthyosaur , is that this gigantic meal never got digested .
The ichthyosaur died soon after swallowing it .
Motani was careful to say they 're not sure exactly WHY the ichthyosaur perished .
But the specimen has a broken neck .
So he gave a speculative play-by-play .
Perhaps the ichthyosaur snapped at the sea lizard—but the lizard fought back .
`` And this fight between the two was fierce , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to subdue its prey , damaging its neck in the process .
Then—it had to dislodge the prey 's bony head and tail , from its juicy midsection .
`` Now the predator had to do it through jerking and twisting , like crocodiles do . ''
... Also bad for the neck .
And finally , the ichthyosaur had to SWALLOW the animal—perhaps using inertia or gravity to shove the prey down its gullet .
`` And the chances are , by the time it was ingested , maybe the neck damage @ @ @ @ @ @ @ maybe the neck could not support the head of the predator that well . ''
Details of that ancient battle appear in the journal iScience .
[ Da-Yong Jiang et al , Evidence Supporting Predation of 4-m Marine Reptile by Triassic Megapredator ] The reason this analysis matters is you can only infer so much about who ate who by looking at teeth .
This fossil offers direct evidence that these ancient beasts sometimes bit off a whole lot more than they could chew .
[ The above text is a transcript of @ @ @ @

Full Transcript
Hundreds of millions of years ago, reptilian predators called ichthyosaurs swam the seas. Their fossils look fearsome. But paleobiologist Ryosuke Motani of U.C. Davis says they may have looked more like friendly dolphins.
“Maybe in life ichthyosaurs would have been cute—at least the smaller ones.”
Motani’s team studied one such specimen found in southwest China. It was 240 million years old—15 feet long. But it seemed to have some extra bones in it—which Motani's team determined to be the remains of a 13-foot-long thalattosaur, or “sea lizard,” the ichthyosaur had swallowed.
And, spoiler alert, the only reason they were able to see this animal in the belly of the ichthyosaur is that this gigantic meal never got digested. The ichthyosaur died soon after swallowing it.
Motani was careful to say they’re not sure exactly why the ichthyosaur perished. But the specimen has a broken neck. So he gave a speculative play-by-play. Perhaps the ichthyosaur snapped at the sea lizard, but the lizard fought back.
“And this fight between the two was fierce, probably.”
So the ichthyosaur fought to subdue its prey, damaging its neck in the process. Then it had to dislodge the prey’s bony head and tail from its juicy midsection.
“Now the predator had to do it through jerking and twisting like crocodiles do.”
Also bad for the neck. And finally, the ichthyosaur had to swallow the animal—perhaps using inertia or gravity to shove the prey down its gullet.
“And the chances are, by the time it was ingested, maybe the neck damage had accumulated to a certain level and maybe the neck could not support the head of the predator that well.”
Details of that ancient battle appear in the journal iScience. [Da-Yong Jiang et al., Evidence supporting predation of 4-m marine reptile by Triassic megapredator]
The reason this analysis matters is you can only infer so much about who ate who by looking at teeth. This fossil offers direct evidence that these ancient beasts sometimes bit off a whole lot more than they could chew.
—Christopher Intagliata
[The above text is a transcript of this podcast.]