scientificamerican--2020-09-11--How Do I Know  I'm Not the Only Conscious Being in the Universe?

It is a central dilemma of human life—more urgent , arguably , than the inevitability of suffering and death .
I have been brooding and ranting to my students about it for years .
It surely troubles us more than ever during this plague-ridden era .
Philosophers call it the problem of other minds .
I prefer to call it the solipsism problem .
Solipsism , technically , is an extreme form of skepticism , at once utterly nuts and irrefutable .
It holds that you are the only conscious being in existence .
The cosmos sprang into existence when @ @ @ @ @ @ @ vanish when you die .
As crazy as this proposition seems , it rests on a brute fact : each of us is sealed in an impermeable prison cell of subjective awareness .
Even our most intimate exchanges might as well be carried out via Zoom .
You experience your own mind every waking second , but you can only infer the existence of other minds through indirect means .
Other people seem to possess conscious perceptions , emotions , memories , intentions , just as you do , but you can ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ can guess how the world looks to me , based on my behavior and utterances , including these words you are reading , but you have no first-hand access to my inner life .
For all you know , I might be a mindless bot .
Natural selection instilled in us the capacity for a so-called theory of mind—a talent for intuiting others ’ emotions and intentions .
But we have a countertendency to deceive each other , and to fear we are being deceived .
The ultimate deception would be pretending you @ @ @ @ @ @ @ not .
The solipsism problem thwarts efforts to explain consciousness .
Scientists and philosophers have proposed countless contradictory hypotheses about what consciousness is and how it arises .
Panpsychists contend that all creatures and even inanimate matter—even a single proton !
—possess consciousness .
Hard-core materialists insist , conversely ( and perversely ) , that not even humans are all that conscious .
The solipsism problem prevents us from verifying or falsifying these and other claims .
I can ’ t be certain that you are conscious , let alone a jellyfish , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ we lack what neuroscientist Christof Koch calls a consciousness meter—a device that can measure consciousness in the same way that a thermometer measures temperature—theories of consciousness will remain in the realm of pure speculation .
But the solipsism problem is far more than a technical philosophical matter .
It is a paranoid but understandable response to the feelings of solitude that lurk within us all .
Even if you reject solipsism as an intellectual position , you sense it , emotionally , whenever you feel estranged from others , whenever you confront the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , really know another person , and no one can really know you .
Religion is one response to the solipsism problem .
Our ancestors dreamed up a supernatural entity who bears witness to our innermost fears and desires .
No matter how lonesome we feel , how alienated from our fellow humans , God is always there watching over us .
He sees our souls , our most secret selves , and He loves us anyway .
Wouldn ’ t it be nice to think so .
The arts , too , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the solipsism problem .
The artist , musician , poet , novelist says , This is how my life feels or This is how life might feel for another person .
She helps us imagine what it ’ s like to be a Black woman trying to save her children from slavery , or a Jewish ad salesman wandering through Dublin , wondering whether his wife is cheating on him .
But to imagine is not to know .
Some of my favorite works of art dwell on the solipsism problem .
In @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and earlier films , as well as his new novel Antkind , Charlie Kaufman depicts other people as projections of a disturbed protagonist .
Kaufman no doubt hopes to help us , and himself , overcome the solipsism problem by venting his anxiety about it , but I find his dramatizations almost too evocative .
Love , ideally , give us the illusion of transcending the solipsism problem .
You feel you really know someone , from the inside out , and she knows you .
In moments of ecstatic sexual communion or @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and watching The Alienist , say—you fuse with your beloved .
The barrier between you seems to vanish .
Inevitably , however , your lover disappoints , deceives , betrays you .
Or , less dramatically , some subtle bio-cognitive shift occurs .
You look at her as she nibbles her pizza and think , Who , what , is this odd creature ?
The solipsism problem has reemerged , more painful and suffocating than ever .
It gets worse .
In addition to the problem of other minds , there is the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ psychologist Robert Trivers points out , we deceive ourselves at least as effectively as we deceive others .
A corollary of this dark truth is that we know ourselves even less than we know others .
If a lion could talk , Wittgenstein said , we couldn ’ t understand it .
The same is true , I suspect , of our own deepest selves .
If you could eavesdrop on your subconscious , you ’ d hear nothing but grunts , growls and moans—or perhaps the high-pitched squeaks of raw machine-code data @ @ @ @ @ @ @ mentally ill , solipsism can become terrifyingly vivid .
Victims of Capgras syndrome think that identical imposters have replaced their loved ones .
If you have Cotard ’ s delusion , also known as walking corpse syndrome , you become convinced that you are dead .
A much more common disorder is derealization , which makes everything -- you , others , reality as whole -- feel strange , phony , simulated Derealization plagued me throughout my youth .
One episode was self-induced .
Hanging out with friends in high school , I @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , hold my breath and let someone squeeze my chest until I passed out .
When I woke up , I didn ’ t recognize my buddies .
They were demons , jeering at me .
For weeks after that horrifying sensation faded , everything still felt unreal , as if I were in a dreadful movie .
What if those afflicted with these alleged delusions actually see reality clearly ?
According to the Buddhist doctrine of anatta , the self does not really exist .
When you try to pin down your @ @ @ @ @ @ @ it slips through your fingers .
We have devised methods for cultivating self-knowledge and quelling our anxieties , such as meditation and psychotherapy .
But these practices strike me as forms of self-brainwashing .
When we meditate or see a therapist , we are not solving the solipsism problem .
We are merely training ourselves to ignore it , to suppress the horror and despair that it triggers .
We have also invented mythical places in which the solipsism problem vanishes .
We transcend our solitude and merge with others into a unified @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , nirvana , the Singularity .
But solipsism is a cave from which we can not escape—except , perhaps , by pretending it doesn ’ t exist .
Or , paradoxically , by confronting it , the way Charlie Kaufman does .
Knowing we are in the cave may be as close as we can get to escaping it .
Conceivably , technology could deliver us from the solipsism problem .
Christof Koch proposes that we all get brain implants with wi-fi , so we can meld minds through a kind of high-tech @ @ @ @ @ @ @ technique that involves “ brain-splicing , ” transferring bits of your brain into mine , and vice versa .
But do we really want to escape the prison of our subjective selves ?
The archnemesis of Star Trek : The Next Generation is the Borg , a legion of tech-enhanced humanoids who have fused into one big meta-entity .
Borg members have lost their separation from each other and hence their individuality .
When they meet ordinary humans , they mutter in a scary monotone , “ You will be assimilated .
Resistance @ @ @ @ @ @ @ can be for me to bear , I don ’ t want to be assimilated .
If solipsism haunts me , so does oneness , a unification so complete that it extinguishes my puny mortal self .
Perhaps the best way to cope with the solipsism problem in this weird , lonely time is to imagine a world in which it has vanished .
Don ’ t Make Me One with Everything Do We Need Brain Implants to Keep Up with Robots ?
See also my free , online book Mind-Body Problems : @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Are and my upcoming book Pay Attention : Sex , Death , and Science , which describes what it ’ s like to be a neurotic science writer .

It is a central dilemma of human life—more urgent, arguably, than the inevitability of suffering and death. I have been brooding and ranting to my students about it for years. It surely troubles us more than ever during this plague-ridden era. Philosophers call it the problem of other minds. I prefer to call it the solipsism problem. Solipsism, technically, is an extreme form of skepticism, at once utterly illogical and irrefutable. It holds that you are the only conscious being in existence. The cosmos sprang into existence when you became sentient, and it will vanish when you die. As crazy as this proposition seems, it rests on a brute fact: each of us is sealed in an impermeable prison cell of subjective awareness. Even our most intimate exchanges might as well be carried out via Zoom.
You experience your own mind every waking second, but you can only infer the existence of other minds through indirect means. Other people seem to possess conscious perceptions, emotions, memories, intentions, just as you do, but you cannot be sure they do. You can guess how the world looks to me based on my behavior and utterances, including these words you are reading, but you have no firsthand access to my inner life. For all you know, I might be a mindless bot.
Natural selection instilled in us the capacity for a so-called theory of mind—a talent for intuiting others’ emotions and intentions. But we have a countertendency to deceive one another and to fear we are being deceived. The ultimate deception would be pretending you are conscious when you are not.
The solipsism problem thwarts efforts to explain consciousness. Scientists and philosophers have proposed countless contradictory hypotheses about what consciousness is and how it arises. Panpsychists contend that all creatures and even inanimate matter—even a single proton!—possess consciousness. Hard-core materialists insist, conversely (and perversely), that not even humans are all that conscious.
The solipsism problem prevents us from verifying or falsifying these and other claims. I cannot be certain that you are conscious, let alone a jellyfish, bot or doorknob. As long as we lack what neuroscientist Christof Koch has called a consciousness meter—a device that can measure consciousness in the same way that a thermometer measures temperature—theories of consciousness will remain in the realm of pure speculation.
But the solipsism problem is far more than a technical philosophical matter. It is a paranoid but understandable response to the feelings of solitude that lurk within us all. Even if you reject solipsism as an intellectual position, you sense it, emotionally, whenever you feel estranged from others, whenever you confront the awful truth that you can never know—really know—another person, and no one can really know you.
Religion is one response to the solipsism problem. Our ancestors dreamed up a supernatural entity who bears witness to our innermost fears and desires. No matter how lonesome we feel, how alienated from our fellow humans, God is always there watching over us. He sees our souls, our most secret selves, and He loves us anyway. Wouldn’t it be nice to think so?
The arts, too, can be seen as attempts to overcome the solipsism problem. The artist, musician, poet, novelist says, “This is how my life feels” or “This is how life might feel for another person.” They help us imagine what it is like to be a Black woman trying to save her children from slavery or a Jewish ad salesman wandering through Dublin, wondering whether his wife is cheating on him. But to imagine is not to know.
Some of my favorite works of art dwell on the solipsism problem. In I’m Thinking of Ending Things and earlier films, as well as his novel Antkind, Charlie Kaufman depicts other people as projections of a disturbed protagonist. Kaufman no doubt hopes to help us, and himself, overcome the solipsism problem by venting his anxiety about it, but I find his dramatizations almost too evocative.
Love, ideally, gives us the illusion of transcending the solipsism problem. You feel you really know someone, from the inside out, and they know you. In moments of ecstatic sexual communion or mundane togetherness—while you’re eating pizza and watching The Alienist, say—you fuse with your beloved. The barrier between you seems to vanish.
Inevitably, however, your lover disappoints, deceives, betrays you. Or, less dramatically, some subtle biocognitive shift occurs. You look at her as she nibbles her pizza and think, Who, what, is this odd creature? The solipsism problem has reemerged, more painful and suffocating than ever.
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It gets worse. In addition to the problem of other minds, there is the problem of our own. As evolutionary psychologist Robert Trivers points out, we deceive ourselves at least as effectively as we deceive others. A corollary of this dark truth is that we know ourselves even less than we know others.
If a lion could talk, philosopher Ludwig Wittgenstein said, we couldn’t understand it. The same is true, I suspect, of our own deepest selves. If you could eavesdrop on your subconscious, you would hear nothing but grunts, growls and moans—or perhaps the high-pitched squeaks of raw machine-code data coursing through a channel.
For the mentally ill, solipsism can become terrifyingly vivid. Victims of Capgras syndrome think that identical imposters have replaced their loved ones. If you have Cotard’s delusion, also known as walking corpse syndrome, you become convinced that you are dead. A much more common disorder is derealization, which makes everything—you, others, reality as a whole—feel strange, phony, simulated.
Derealization plagued me throughout my youth. One episode was self-induced. Hanging out with friends in high school, I thought it would be fun to hyperventilate, hold my breath and let someone squeeze my chest until I passed out. When I woke up, I didn’t recognize my buddies. They were demons jeering at me. For weeks after that horrifying sensation faded, everything still felt unreal, as if I were in a dreadful movie.
What if those afflicted with these alleged delusions actually see reality clearly? According to the Buddhist doctrine of anatta, the self does not really exist. When you try to pin down your own essence, to grasp it, it slips through your fingers.
We have devised methods for cultivating self-knowledge and quelling our anxieties, such as meditation and psychotherapy. But these practices strike me as forms of self-brainwashing. When we meditate or see a therapist, we are not solving the solipsism problem. We are merely training ourselves to ignore it, to suppress the horror and despair that it triggers.
We have also invented mythical places in which the solipsism problem vanishes. We transcend our solitude and merge with others into a unified whole. We call these places heaven, nirvana, the Singularity. But solipsism is a cave from which we cannot escape—except, perhaps, by pretending it does not exist. Or, paradoxically, by confronting it, the way Kaufman does. Knowing we are in the cave may be as close as we can get to escaping it.
Conceivably, technology could deliver us from the solipsism problem. Koch proposes that we all get brain implants with Wi-Fi so we can meld minds through a kind of high-tech telepathy. Philosopher Colin McGinn suggests a technique that involves “brain splicing,” transferring bits of your brain into mine, and vice versa.
But do we really want to escape the prison of our subjective selves? The archnemesis of Star Trek: The Next Generation is the Borg, a legion of tech-enhanced humanoids who have fused into one big meta-entity. Borg members have lost their separation from one another and hence their individuality. When they meet ordinary humans, they mutter in a scary monotone, “You will be assimilated. Resistance is futile. ”
As hard as solitude can be for me to bear, I do not want to be assimilated. If solipsism haunts me, so does oneness, a unification so complete that it extinguishes my puny mortal self. Perhaps the best way to cope with the solipsism problem in this weird, lonely time is to imagine a world in which it has vanished.


scientificamerican--2020-09-11--Long-Awaited Update Arrives for Radiocarbon Dating

More than 3,500 years ago a catastrophic volcanic eruption struck ancient Thera , known today as the Greek island of Santorini .
Ash and pumice rained across the Mediterranean , and tsunami waves rolled onto faraway shores in Crete .
In the 1960s archaeologists on Santorini uncovered a Minoan settlement frozen in time , with vibrant wall frescoes decorating multistory houses , all buried by volcanic debris .
The eruption was one of the most powerful volcanic explosions of the past 10,000 years and a crucial time point of the Mediterranean Bronze Age .
It is also a major area @ @ @ @ @ @ @ argued for decades over the date of this cataclysm .
Although it does not settle the debate , a recent adjustment to the radiocarbon-dating process narrows down the possibilities .
This much anticipated new calibration curve , a set of data points used to convert radiocarbon-dating results into calendar years , is highlighted in a special August issue of Radiocarbon .
Called IntCal20 , it draws from nearly twice the data of the previous curve , from 2013—and may prompt scientists to reevaluate the age of sites , artifacts and events around the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ massive increase in the data set , and with each revision our ability to confidently date the past improves , ” says Thomas Higham , a radiocarbon-dating specialist at the University of Oxford , who was not involved in the calibration effort .
“ A lot of people are excited about this new curve because it is going to give us the opportunity to sharpen our chronologies and understand more about the way the earth works and the way the earth has changed through time.
” All living things absorb carbon 14 , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a regular rate over time .
This means that shells , bone , charcoal and other organic materials that archaeologists find contain a chemical timestamp .
Discovered in the late 1940s , radiocarbon dating transformed the study of prehistory and became the gold standard for establishing chronologies in archaeology .
A second revolution came when scientists realized atmospheric carbon 14 levels vary over time as the result of fluctuations in solar activity—and , more recently , atomic bombs and fossil-fuel burning .
Thus , radiocarbon dates need to be calibrated against independent measurements @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
These have annual growth rings that scientists can directly tie to calendar years and can also analyze for radiocarbon .
For the earliest internationally accepted calibration curves , developed in the 1980s , tree-ring measurements were available only for the past few thousand years .
In contrast , IntCal20 draws from nearly 14,000 years ' worth .
It also includes far more single-year tree-ring measurements than previous versions , accounting for shorter-lived spikes from phenomena such as bursts of solar radiation .
Other absolute measurements from natural archives , including ice cores @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , extend the new curve back to 55,000 years , close to the earliest age radiocarbon dating can track .
The International Calibration Working Group , formed in 2002 , crowdsources data to produce new versions of the widely used curve .
And besides IntCal20 , which is intended for samples from the Northern Hemisphere , the group has created separate curves for objects from the Southern Hemisphere and the ocean , which have slightly different radiocarbon levels .
Of the 12,904 raw measurements included in IntCal20 , more than 800 come from @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of the curve .
Scientists know Thera 's cataclysmic eruption happened during that span , but they want to pinpoint when .
“ If you had a really good , firm calendar date for this event ... it would mean that at any archaeological site in that region where you hit the ash , you would have an exact dated layer , ” says Charlotte Pearson , a tree-ring scientist at the University of Arizona , who was part of the IntCal20 effort and studies Thera .
“ That would pull together all @ @ @ @ @ @ @ cultures in this region , ” including the Minoans , the Hittites , the Hyksos and the ancient Egyptians .
But the date is elusive .
Some pottery and ancient records point to the late 16th century B.C .
; radiocarbon results have suggested a century or more earlier .
Measurements that went into IntCal20 tighten the focus , but because the curve plateaus in this range , the data offer probabilities for a few windows of time rather than a definitive answer .
“ The major difference is that the possible ranges @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Sturt W. Manning , a Cornell University archaeologist , who led early Thera-related radiocarbon work and was involved in IntCal20 .
The calibration suggests a late-17th-century B.C .
date is most likely , with another window in the earlier to mid-16th century B.C.
, he says .
With these new data , the estimate “ has become greatly more precise—but it 's the same debate , ironically.
” Nevertheless , Pearson thinks scientists are getting closer to a calendar year for the event .
“ I do think it is dateable , ” @ @ @ @ @ @ @ [ a question of ] which of the records is going to produce the clinching evidence.
” With IntCal20 's release , scientists and archaeologists expect a rush of new studies that recalibrate data—and not just from the Bronze Age .
The new curve bumps the transition period at the end of the last ice age to 50 years earlier .
This may influence how archaeologists interpret data connected to the mass extinction of megafauna and the arrival of humans into the Americas—other contentious dates .
IntCal20 also suggests the oldest Homo sapiens @ @ @ @ @ @ @ man found in Siberia , may be 1,000 years younger than previously believed .
Higham is particularly excited about new measurements in the range of 50,000 to 55,000 years ago ; he hopes these will show more about how anatomically modern humans , migrating out of Africa , interacted and exchanged genes with archaic humans , including Neandertals and Denisovans .
Manning says the next IntCal will incorporate more regional variations in radiocarbon measurements , possibly explaining discrepancies from the period around the Thera eruption .
“ We 've moved to a new @ @ @ @ @ @ @ he says .
“ With that will come a new focus on exactly what has been dated and how that radiocarbon age has been created .
”

More than 3,500 years ago a catastrophic volcanic eruption struck ancient Thera, known today as the Greek island of Santorini. Ash and pumice rained across the Mediterranean, and tsunami waves rolled onto faraway shores in Crete. In the 1960s archaeologists on Santorini uncovered a Minoan settlement frozen in time, with vibrant wall frescoes decorating multistory houses, all buried by volcanic debris.
The eruption was one of the most powerful volcanic explosions of the past 10,000 years and a crucial time point of the Mediterranean Bronze Age. It is also a major area of controversy in archaeology; researchers have argued for decades over the date of this cataclysm.
Although it does not settle the debate, a recent adjustment to the radiocarbon-dating process narrows down the possibilities. This much anticipated new calibration curve, a set of data points used to convert radiocarbon-dating results into calendar years, is highlighted in a special August issue of Radiocarbon. Called IntCal20, it draws from nearly twice the data of the previous curve, from 2013—and may prompt scientists to reevaluate the age of sites, artifacts and events around the world.
“It's a really massive increase in the data set, and with each revision our ability to confidently date the past improves,” says Thomas Higham, a radiocarbon-dating specialist at the University of Oxford, who was not involved in the calibration effort. “A lot of people are excited about this new curve because it is going to give us the opportunity to sharpen our chronologies and understand more about the way the earth works and the way the earth has changed through time.”
All living things absorb carbon 14, a radioactive carbon isotope that decays at a regular rate over time. This means that shells, bone, charcoal and other organic materials that archaeologists find contain a chemical timestamp. Discovered in the late 1940s, radiocarbon dating transformed the study of prehistory and became the gold standard for establishing chronologies in archaeology. A second revolution came when scientists realized atmospheric carbon 14 levels vary over time as the result of fluctuations in solar activity—and, more recently, atomic bombs and fossil-fuel burning. Thus, radiocarbon dates need to be calibrated against independent measurements, primarily from chunks of ancient wood. These have annual growth rings that scientists can directly tie to calendar years and can also analyze for radiocarbon.
For the earliest internationally accepted calibration curves, developed in the 1980s, tree-ring measurements were available only for the past few thousand years. In contrast, IntCal20 draws from nearly 14,000 years' worth. It also includes far more single-year tree-ring measurements than previous versions, accounting for shorter-lived spikes from phenomena such as bursts of solar radiation. Other absolute measurements from natural archives, including ice cores, seasonal lake sediments and cave stalagmites, extend the new curve back to 55,000 years, close to the earliest age radiocarbon dating can track.
The International Calibration Working Group, formed in 2002, crowdsources data to produce new versions of the widely used curve. And besides IntCal20, which is intended for samples from the Northern Hemisphere, the group has created separate curves for objects from the Southern Hemisphere and the ocean, which have slightly different radiocarbon levels.
Of the 12,904 raw measurements included in IntCal20, more than 800 come from 1700 to 1500 B.C.—the best-dated prehistoric section of the curve. Scientists know Thera's cataclysmic eruption happened during that span, but they want to pinpoint when.
“If you had a really good, firm calendar date for this event ... it would mean that at any archaeological site in that region where you hit the ash, you would have an exact dated layer,” says Charlotte Pearson, a tree-ring scientist at the University of Arizona, who was part of the IntCal20 effort and studies Thera. “That would pull together all the time lines for all these incredible cultures in this region,” including the Minoans, the Hittites, the Hyksos and the ancient Egyptians.
But the date is elusive. Some pottery and ancient records point to the late 16th century B.C.; radiocarbon results have suggested a century or more earlier. Measurements that went into IntCal20 tighten the focus, but because the curve plateaus in this range, the data offer probabilities for a few windows of time rather than a definitive answer.
“The major difference is that the possible ranges are now substantially narrower,” says Sturt W. Manning, a Cornell University archaeologist, who led early Thera-related radiocarbon work and was involved in IntCal20. The calibration suggests a late-17th-century B.C. date is most likely, with another window in the earlier to mid-16th century B.C., he says. With these new data, the estimate “has become greatly more precise—but it's the same debate, ironically.” Nevertheless, Pearson thinks scientists are getting closer to a calendar year for the event. “I do think it is dateable,” she says. “It's just [a question of] which of the records is going to produce the clinching evidence.”
With IntCal20's release, scientists and archaeologists expect a rush of new studies that recalibrate data—and not just from the Bronze Age. The new curve bumps the transition period at the end of the last ice age to 50 years earlier. This may influence how archaeologists interpret data connected to the mass extinction of megafauna and the arrival of humans into the Americas—other contentious dates. IntCal20 also suggests the oldest Homo sapiens fossil known in Eurasia, the Ust'-Ishim man found in Siberia, may be 1,000 years younger than previously believed. Higham is particularly excited about new measurements in the range of 50,000 to 55,000 years ago; he hopes these will show more about how anatomically modern humans, migrating out of Africa, interacted and exchanged genes with archaic humans, including Neandertals and Denisovans.
Manning says the next IntCal will incorporate more regional variations in radiocarbon measurements, possibly explaining discrepancies from the period around the Thera eruption. “We've moved to a new generation of accuracy and precision,” he says. “With that will come a new focus on exactly what has been dated and how that radiocarbon age has been created.”


scientificamerican--2020-09-11--Coronavirus News Roundup, September 5-September 11

The items below are highlights from the free newsletter , “ Smart , useful , science stuff about COVID-19.
” To receive newsletter issues daily in your inbox , sign-up here..
Please consider a monthly contribution to support this newsletter .
At Nature , Nicky Phillips , David Cyranoski and Smriti Mallapaty covered the announcement that a collaboration between researchers at AstraZeneca and the University of Oxford is pausing Phase 3 vaccine-candidate experiments due to a “ suspected adverse event ” in a study participant in the UK ( 9/9/20 ) .
The collaboration ’ s Phase 3 studies are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , South Africa and the UK , Nature reports .
“ The news highlights the importance of waiting for the results of large , properly designed trials [ experiments ] to assess safety before approving a vaccine for widespread use , ” the story states .
Investigators will start by trying to find out if the participant received the vaccine candidate or a placebo , the story states .
And then if it was the vaccine , they will assess whether the participant ’ s reaction is related or unrelated to receiving it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ this group [ of investigators ] will very quickly assess this adverse event and make the results of that investigation known , ” said a McGill University bioethicist quoted in the story .
Presumably in response to reports of political pushing for approvals this fall , the chief executive officers ( CEOs ) of 9 pharmaceutical companies released a pledge ( dated 9/8/20 ) to “ uphold the integrity of the scientific process as they work towards potential global regulatory filings and approvals of the first COVID-19 vaccines.
” The CEOs — including @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , Johnson & Johnson , Merck , Moderna , and Pfizer — assert they will “ only submit for approval or emergency use authorization after demonstrating safety and efficacy through a Phase 3 clinical study that is designed and conducted to meet requirements of expert regulatory authorities such as [ the U.S. Food and Drug Administration ] .
” In other words , they don ’ t plan to cut any corners in their research nor to yield to political pressure .
For more contextualized commentary on what Ed Silverman describes as a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ '' see his column at STAT ( 9/7/20 ) .
Meanwhile , the U.S. Food and Drug Administration ( FDA ) has quickly taken measures to block any political influence over ongoing research to develop vaccines to protect us from SARS-CoV-2 , report Anna Edney , Drew Armstrong , and Robert Langreth for Bloomberg ( 9/8/20 ) .
One measure reportedly includes the FDA “ sticking by '' June guidance that the agency will only consider for approval vaccine candidates that are at least 50 % effective .
Lower down in the story @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is no guarantee the vaccines furthest along in development will be the most effective , or be safe.
” And it could take “ months more ” for Phase 3 findings to be conclusive , the story suggests .
Still , the story ends with estimates by drug makers for how soon they might complete their Phase 3 studies ( efficacy and safety experiments in thousands of study subjects ) of SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidates .
Moderna reportedly says as soon as Thanksgiving , and Pfizer reportedly has been saying next month .
I @ @ @ @ @ @ @ I came across a searchable web site called “ Dear Pandemic , ” which bills itself as an “ interdisciplinary all-female team of researchers and clinicians with expertise including nursing , mental health , demography , health policy/economics , and epidemiology.
” Posts date back to July but the site appears to have officially launched 9/10/20 .
Their mission is to “ educate and empower individuals to successfully navigate the COVID-19 information overwhelm.
” About two-thirds of the way down the home page , there ’ s a “ submit a question ” @ @ @ @ @ @ @ posts are indexed by topic and dates .
The risk of catching SARS-CoV-2 on an airplane is “ relatively low ” if travelers are screened for sickness , wear masks , and are spaced out among seats , according to experts interviewed by Noah Y. Kim for Kaiser Health News ( 9/10/20 ) .
The air exchange rate and use of HEPA ( high-efficiency particulate air ) filters on planes also significantly reduce the risk of catching the virus from travelers who are several rows away , according to the story .
There @ @ @ @ @ @ @ person seated nearby , the story states .
And air filtration alone is insufficient to prevent transmission even when travelers are distanced in the plane , Kim writes .
Delta , Hawaiian , Southwest and JetBlue currently keep middle seats open , the story states .
Security checks and waiting at gates also pose some transmission risk .
The U.S. Centers for Disease Control has not confirmed any SARS-CoV-2 transmission aboard a U.S. flight , an airline industry source says in the story , but that might reflect the difficulty of determining where @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , Kim writes .
“ Even though flying is a relatively low-risk activity , ” the story states , “ traveling should still be avoided unless absolutely necessary.
” An undated , recently published ESPN interactive , bylined by Kyle Bonagura , illustrates its analysis and mapping of anonymized cellphone tracking data for three 2019 U.S. college football games .
The maps provide a sense of where fans travel to and disperse to after games and thus the regional concentration of potential SARS-CoV-2 ( and other infectious disease ) spread resulting from the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ after big match-ups .
The piece includes updates on some of the football conferences ’ plans and protocols for the 2020 season .
The Big Ten and Pac-12 have postponed their seasons , whereas the SEC ( Southeastern Conference ) seems to be allowing each school to set its own attendance guidelines .
I can ’ t pretend to follow NCAA ( National Collegiate Athletic Association ) football designations but some or all of the NCAA teams drew “ more than 47.5 million '' attendees last season , the piece states .
“ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ limited-capacity crowds , the prospect that college football could play a role in spreading the coronavirus is too obvious to ignore , ” the story states .
Thanks to a reader for alerting me to this piece .
Check out “ To build emotional strength , expand your brain , ” by Kerry Hannon at The New York Times ( 9/2/20 ) .
It basically asserts that learning new material , such as a language or craft , that expands your horizons helps you deal with change and crisis , such as the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the piece lists some free or low-cost online class sites and some programs that allow nontraditional students to audit classes or work on projects with enrolled graduate and undergraduate students .
You might enjoy “ Looks like I wasn ’ t muted during our Zoom meeting , ” by Susie Aquilina , for McSweeney ’ s ( 9/10/20 ) .

The items below are highlights from the free newsletter, “Smart, useful, science stuff about COVID-19.” To receive newsletter issues daily in your inbox, sign-up here.. Please consider a monthly contribution to support this newsletter.
At Nature, Nicky Phillips, David Cyranoski and Smriti Mallapaty covered the announcement that a collaboration between researchers at AstraZeneca and the University of Oxford is pausing Phase 3 vaccine-candidate experiments due to a “suspected adverse event” in a study participant in the UK (9/9/20). The collaboration’s Phase 3 studies are being paused in the U.S., Brazil, South Africa and the UK, Nature reports. “The news highlights the importance of waiting for the results of large, properly designed trials [experiments] to assess safety before approving a vaccine for widespread use,” the story states. Investigators will start by trying to find out if the participant received the vaccine candidate or a placebo, the story states. And then if it was the vaccine, they will assess whether the participant’s reaction is related or unrelated to receiving it. “I have every confidence that this group [of investigators] will very quickly assess this adverse event and make the results of that investigation known,” said a McGill University bioethicist quoted in the story.
Presumably in response to reports of political pushing for approvals this fall, the chief executive officers (CEOs) of 9 pharmaceutical companies released a pledge (dated 9/8/20) to “uphold the integrity of the scientific process as they work towards potential global regulatory filings and approvals of the first COVID-19 vaccines.” The CEOs — including those for AstraZeneca, BioNTech, GlaxoSmithKline, Johnson & Johnson, Merck, Moderna, and Pfizer — assert they will “only submit for approval or emergency use authorization after demonstrating safety and efficacy through a Phase 3 clinical study that is designed and conducted to meet requirements of expert regulatory authorities such as [the U.S. Food and Drug Administration].” In other words, they don’t plan to cut any corners in their research nor to yield to political pressure. For more contextualized commentary on what Ed Silverman describes as a “highly unusual turn of events," see his column at STAT (9/7/20). Meanwhile, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has quickly taken measures to block any political influence over ongoing research to develop vaccines to protect us from SARS-CoV-2, report Anna Edney, Drew Armstrong, and Robert Langreth for Bloomberg (9/8/20). One measure reportedly includes the FDA “sticking by" June guidance that the agency will only consider for approval vaccine candidates that are at least 50% effective. Lower down in the story, the reporters write, “There is no guarantee the vaccines furthest along in development will be the most effective, or be safe.” And it could take “months more” for Phase 3 findings to be conclusive, the story suggests. Still, the story ends with estimates by drug makers for how soon they might complete their Phase 3 studies (efficacy and safety experiments in thousands of study subjects) of SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidates. Moderna reportedly says as soon as Thanksgiving, and Pfizer reportedly has been saying next month. I remain reasonably skeptical.
On Twitter, I came across a searchable web site called “Dear Pandemic,” which bills itself as an “interdisciplinary all-female team of researchers and clinicians with expertise including nursing, mental health, demography, health policy/economics, and epidemiology.” Posts date back to July but the site appears to have officially launched 9/10/20. Their mission is to “educate and empower individuals to successfully navigate the COVID-19 information overwhelm.” About two-thirds of the way down the home page, there’s a “submit a question” link. And below that, previous posts are indexed by topic and dates.
The risk of catching SARS-CoV-2 on an airplane is “relatively low” if travelers are screened for sickness, wear masks, and are spaced out among seats, according to experts interviewed by Noah Y. Kim for Kaiser Health News (9/10/20). The air exchange rate and use of HEPA (high-efficiency particulate air) filters on planes also significantly reduce the risk of catching the virus from travelers who are several rows away, according to the story. There is still a risk from an infected person seated nearby, the story states. And air filtration alone is insufficient to prevent transmission even when travelers are distanced in the plane, Kim writes. Delta, Hawaiian, Southwest and JetBlue currently keep middle seats open, the story states. Security checks and waiting at gates also pose some transmission risk. The U.S. Centers for Disease Control has not confirmed any SARS-CoV-2 transmission aboard a U.S. flight, an airline industry source says in the story, but that might reflect the difficulty of determining where people in the U.S. contract the virus, Kim writes. “Even though flying is a relatively low-risk activity,” the story states, “traveling should still be avoided unless absolutely necessary.”
An undated, recently published ESPN interactive, bylined by Kyle Bonagura, illustrates its analysis and mapping of anonymized cellphone tracking data for three 2019 U.S. college football games. The maps provide a sense of where fans travel to and disperse to after games and thus the regional concentration of potential SARS-CoV-2 (and other infectious disease) spread resulting from the mixing of people before, during and after big match-ups. The piece includes updates on some of the football conferences’ plans and protocols for the 2020 season. The Big Ten and Pac-12 have postponed their seasons, whereas the SEC (Southeastern Conference) seems to be allowing each school to set its own attendance guidelines. I can’t pretend to follow NCAA (National Collegiate Athletic Association) football designations but some or all of the NCAA teams drew “more than 47.5 million" attendees last season, the piece states. “Even with fewer teams in action and limited-capacity crowds, the prospect that college football could play a role in spreading the coronavirus is too obvious to ignore,” the story states. Thanks to a reader for alerting me to this piece.
Check out “To build emotional strength, expand your brain,” by Kerry Hannon at The New York Times (9/2/20). It basically asserts that learning new material, such as a language or craft, that expands your horizons helps you deal with change and crisis, such as the coronavirus pandemic. Near the end, the piece lists some free or low-cost online class sites and some programs that allow nontraditional students to audit classes or work on projects with enrolled graduate and undergraduate students.
You might enjoy “Looks like I wasn’t muted during our Zoom meeting,” by Susie Aquilina, for McSweeney’s (9/10/20).


scientificamerican--2020-09-11--Why Trump-Favoring Voters Ignored a Deadly Hurricane Warning

People who live in the southern U.S. are used to evacuating when severe hurricanes are headed their way .
Yet in the case of 2017 ’ s Hurricane Irma—which was the costliest tropical cyclone ever to hit Florida and caused $ 50 billion in damages in the U.S.—the choice to leave or remain turned into a political storm .
According to a study published on September 11 in Science Advances , Florida residents who probably voted for Hillary Clinton in the 2016 presidential election were up to 11 percentage points more likely to flee than those who probably voted for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ hurricane skepticism ” spread by conservative commentators may have been to blame .
“ It used to be that everyone could agree that something like hurricanes are very dangerous phenomena , ” says Elisa Long , an associate professor of decisions , operations and technology management at the University of California , Los Angeles , who led the study .
“ It ’ s really concerning that something that should not be partisan has become partisan , especially when that skepticism is manifesting in behavior that might actually harm someone.
” Past @ @ @ @ @ @ @ apparent on social media and in the news : Americans view issues such as climate change , vaccines , gun control and COVID-19 risks differently according to their political affiliation .
But the evidence was not firmly grounded .
Most studies investigating how partisanship shapes beliefs were based on surveys prone to introducing bias rather than on confirmation of just how deeply people internalize self-reported political stances .
The act of filling out a survey itself has pitfalls .
A 2015 paper found that simply paying people to provide the correct answers diminished @ @ @ @ @ @ @ questions , suggesting , the authors wrote , “ that the apparent gulf in factual beliefs ... may be more illusory than real.
” Whether partisan beliefs influence actual behavior , especially when the stakes are high , is also something surveys do not adequately capture .
To test this question , Long and her colleagues turned to hurricane evacuation rates .
Three major hurricanes occurred in the U.S. 2017 : Harvey , Irma and Maria .
In the weeks between Harvey and Irma , Rush Limbaugh—the most popular radio host in the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 15.5 million weekly listeners—said that the government and media were exaggerating Irma ’ s severity to advance a climate change agenda .
“ These storms , once they actually hit , are never as strong as they ’ re reported , ” he told listeners .
This message was amplified by other conservative pundits , such as Ann Coulter , and by several mainstream media outlets .
To test how much weight was given to these comments , Long and her colleagues used location data down to the level of neighborhood blocks from @ @ @ @ @ @ @ residents ’ smartphones .
The information allowed them to estimate where individuals live based on the phones ’ location at night .
The researchers determined someone evacuated when a cell phone moved away from its typical nighttime location at least 24 hours before a storm ’ s landfall .
They calculated evacuation rates for Hurricanes Harvey and Irma in in Texas and Florida , respectively , as well as for Hurricane Matthew , which hit Florida in 2016 .
The researchers next overlaid the evacuation data on precinct-level voting results , which gave @ @ @ @ @ @ @ voted in 2016 .
Doing so allowed them to compare residents who lived as close as 150 meters from one another in neighboring Republican and Democratic precincts .
They also used block-level census data to control for possible confounding variables that might influence whether someone chose to evacuate .
Those data included household income , education , race , ethnicity and employment rates , as well as geographical information such as the distance to the coast and elevation .
The findings were striking : an estimated 45 percent of likely Clinton voters evacuated @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 34 percent of Trump voters did so .
Tellingly , however , these differences did not emerge during Hurricane Harvey , less than a month prior , or Hurricane Matthew—which did not receive the same level of haranguing from Limbaugh or Coulter .
While the findings do not definitively prove that Limbaugh ’ s promotion of hurricane skepticism caused Republicans to stay put , the differences uncovered in the study “ can ’ t be explained by any other correlation , like Democrats living near the coast , ” Long says .
“ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ spatial precision , the storm couldn ’ t possibly hit Democratic areas more than Republican ones.
” “ This new paper is really significant for showing that this partisan bias affects people ’ s real , consequential behaviors , as measured using data on their actual behavior , not surveys , ” says David Broockman , a political scientist at the University of California , Berkeley , who was not involved in the work .
Because of the researchers ’ careful study design , he says , “ it becomes very convincing that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ said and not just a general pattern about what kind of person evacuates.
” The finding that “ partisan elites ” such as Limbaugh can influence their followers ’ decisions would be encouraging if their persuasiveness was used for promoting good behavior , Broockman says .
But it ’ s “ a disconcerting conclusion to the extent that elites encourage their partisan team to engage in irresponsible or socially destructive behavior , ” he adds .

People who live in the southern U.S. are used to evacuating when severe hurricanes are headed their way. Yet in the case of 2017’s Hurricane Irma—which was the costliest tropical cyclone ever to hit Florida and caused $50 billion in damages in the U.S.—the choice to leave or remain turned into a political storm. According to a study published on September 11 in Science Advances, Florida residents who probably voted for Hillary Clinton in the 2016 presidential election were up to 11 percentage points more likely to flee than those who probably voted for Donald Trump. The authors found that “hurricane skepticism” spread by conservative commentators may have been to blame.
“It used to be that everyone could agree that something like hurricanes are very dangerous phenomena,” says Elisa Long, an associate professor of decisions, operations and technology management at the University of California, Los Angeles, who led the study. “It’s really concerning that something that should not be partisan has become partisan, especially when that skepticism is manifesting in behavior that might actually harm someone.”
Past research supported a scenario that is readily apparent on social media and in the news: Americans view issues such as climate change, vaccines, gun control and COVID-19 risks differently according to their political affiliation. But the evidence was not firmly grounded. Most studies investigating how partisanship shapes beliefs were based on surveys prone to introducing bias rather than on confirmation of just how deeply people internalize self-reported political stances. The act of filling out a survey itself has pitfalls. A 2015 paper found that simply paying people to provide the correct answers diminished the gap between partisan responses to factual questions, suggesting, the authors wrote, “that the apparent gulf in factual beliefs ... may be more illusory than real.”
Whether partisan beliefs influence actual behavior, especially when the stakes are high, is also something surveys do not adequately capture. To test this question, Long and her colleagues turned to hurricane evacuation rates.
Three major hurricanes occurred in the U.S. 2017: Harvey, Irma and Maria. In the weeks between Harvey and Irma, Rush Limbaugh—the most popular radio host in the U.S., whose conservative talk show draws 15.5 million weekly listeners—said that the government and media were exaggerating Irma’s severity to advance a climate change agenda. “These storms, once they actually hit, are never as strong as they’re reported,” he told listeners. This message was amplified by other conservative pundits, such as Ann Coulter, and by several mainstream media outlets.
To test how much weight was given to these comments, Long and her colleagues used location data down to the level of neighborhood blocks from more than 2.7 million Florida and Texas residents’ smartphones. The information allowed them to estimate where individuals live based on the phones’ location at night. The researchers determined someone evacuated when a cell phone moved away from its typical nighttime location at least 24 hours before a storm’s landfall. They calculated evacuation rates for Hurricanes Harvey and Irma in in Texas and Florida, respectively, as well as for Hurricane Matthew, which hit Florida in 2016.
The researchers next overlaid the evacuation data on precinct-level voting results, which gave them a proxy for how phone owners voted in 2016. Doing so allowed them to compare residents who lived as close as 150 meters from one another in neighboring Republican and Democratic precincts.
They also used block-level census data to control for possible confounding variables that might influence whether someone chose to evacuate. Those data included household income, education, race, ethnicity and employment rates, as well as geographical information such as the distance to the coast and elevation.
The findings were striking: an estimated 45 percent of likely Clinton voters evacuated prior to Hurricane Irma, while just 34 percent of Trump voters did so. Tellingly, however, these differences did not emerge during Hurricane Harvey, less than a month prior, or Hurricane Matthew—which did not receive the same level of haranguing from Limbaugh or Coulter.
While the findings do not definitively prove that Limbaugh’s promotion of hurricane skepticism caused Republicans to stay put, the differences uncovered in the study “can’t be explained by any other correlation, like Democrats living near the coast,” Long says. “When you get to this level of spatial precision, the storm couldn’t possibly hit Democratic areas more than Republican ones.”
“This new paper is really significant for showing that this partisan bias affects people’s real, consequential behaviors, as measured using data on their actual behavior, not surveys,” says David Broockman, a political scientist at the University of California, Berkeley, who was not involved in the work. Because of the researchers’ careful study design, he says, “it becomes very convincing that the differences are due to what Limbaugh said and not just a general pattern about what kind of person evacuates.”
The finding that “partisan elites” such as Limbaugh can influence their followers’ decisions would be encouraging if their persuasiveness was used for promoting good behavior, Broockman says. But it’s “a disconcerting conclusion to the extent that elites encourage their partisan team to engage in irresponsible or socially destructive behavior,” he adds.


scientificamerican--2020-09-11--How Record-Smashing Heat Ushered in Western Infernos

Two weeks ago , the Pine Gulch Fire became the largest wildfire in Colorado history when it grew to an area nearly the size of Chicago .
The 139,000-acre blaze , ignited July 31 , was fueled by another record : The area where the fire occurred experienced its hottest August in at least 126 years .
Garfield and Mesa counties in western Colorado shattered temperature records that date to 1895 , according to newly released NOAA figures that show a similar , daunting trend across the western United States .
Nearly three-quarters of the counties in six Western states @ @ @ @ @ @ @ NOAA records show .
The states are Arizona , California , Colorado , New Mexico , Nevada and Utah , which make up NOAA ’ s West and Southwest climate regions .
In Mesa County , the average temperature last month was 74.1 degrees Fahrenheit .
That ’ s more than 7 degrees above normal for August in the county of 155,000 people—and 2.6 degrees above Mesa ’ s previous record for August .
“ This was probably the most extreme single summer month that we ’ ve ever seen in western Colorado @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s state climatologist , noting that wildfires were also fueled by extreme dry conditions .
“ In some places , like Arizona and parts of California , it was the hottest summer on record.
” In Arizona and Utah , every county set a record for the highest average monthly temperature in August , NOAA records show .
The average August temperature in each of Utah ’ s 29 counties was at least 5 degrees above normal .
In California , where wildfires have burned a record 3.1 million acres this year @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 58 counties set a monthly temperature record for August .
Each of the six states also had its highest statewide average monthly temperature for August .
California ’ s average temperature of 79 degrees last month was 5.3 degrees above normal in the state for August .
August heat will have “ a carryover effect ” in California , University of Colorado fire scientist Jennifer Balch said , making forests and grasslands drier than normal and primed for ignition when the state ’ s peak wildfire season begins next month with the arrival @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is so spontaneous , it takes just a little bit of warming to have a lot more burning , ” Balch said .
California wildfires have already burned an area the size of Connecticut this year while destroying nearly 6,000 structures and killing 12 people , according to the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection .
The 3.1 million acres burned in California in 2020 is well ahead of the annual record of 2 million acres , set in 2018 .
The three California counties that saw the biggest spike in August @ @ @ @ @ @ @ at the heart of the 400,000-acre SCU Lightning Complex fires , which began Aug. 18 east of San Jose and as of yesterday were nearly contained .
Wildfires have been the main result of the record August temperatures .
But the heat also intensified drought conditions in the West , threatening farmers , ranchers and ski resorts .
“ Lots of farmers and agriculture communities are facing a season cut short or maybe a season that didn ’ t materialize at all , ” said Jon Meyer , a researcher at the Utah @ @ @ @ @ @ @ committee that monitors drought conditions .
“ The state is really pinching water sources , trying to preserve as much water through the rest of the year.
” Schumacher said the August heat combined with dry conditions to sharply reduce reservoir levels and streamflow , which could lead to restrictions such as water rationing next year .
“ If we don ’ t have a good snowpack year this winter , next summer is when the impacts are really going to come out in terms of water resources , '' Schumacher said .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ are part of longer-term national and global warming trends in the past five years .
But in many Western counties , August was insanely hot .
In 23 counties , the average temperature last month was at least 10 % higher than normal for August .
Thirty-one counties broke the previous record for average August temperatures by at least 2 degrees .
In total , 155 of the 216 counties in the six states had their hottest August on record .
For another 20 counties , last month was the second-hottest August .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
The “ coldest ” county in the six states—Baca County , Colo.—had an average temperature that was just 1.5 degrees above normal .
Oregon and Washington , which have seen massive wildfires spread in recent days , had hotter-than-average temperatures in August but did not set records .
Meyer , the Utah climate researcher , hesitated to attribute the August temperatures to climate change .
“ These kind of years certainly would have happened in the past , ” he said .
“ But with climate change , we ’ re loading @ @ @ @ @ @ @ scenario for those type of years to occur more frequently .
“ I ’ m not sure we can say climate change this year is doing this , ” Meyer added .
“ But this could be the new normal we could expect at the back end of this century.
” Balch of the University of Colorado said the increasing temperatures , dry conditions and development in forested areas aren ’ t easily changed .
“ I ’ m not expecting this trend to change anytime soon , ” she said .
“ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the fire problem that ’ s now a function of climate change by reducing our emissions .
We ’ re kind of stuck with this situation.
” Reprinted from Climatewire with permission from E & E News .
E & E provides daily coverage of essential energy and environmental news at www.eenews.net .

Two weeks ago, the Pine Gulch Fire became the largest wildfire in Colorado history when it grew to an area nearly the size of Chicago.
The 139,000-acre blaze, ignited July 31, was fueled by another record: The area where the fire occurred experienced its hottest August in at least 126 years.
Garfield and Mesa counties in western Colorado shattered temperature records that date to 1895, according to newly released NOAA figures that show a similar, daunting trend across the western United States.
Nearly three-quarters of the counties in six Western states broke monthly temperature records for August, NOAA records show. The states are Arizona, California, Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada and Utah, which make up NOAA’s West and Southwest climate regions.
In Mesa County, the average temperature last month was 74.1 degrees Fahrenheit. That’s more than 7 degrees above normal for August in the county of 155,000 people—and 2.6 degrees above Mesa’s previous record for August.
“This was probably the most extreme single summer month that we’ve ever seen in western Colorado,” said Russ Schumacher, Colorado’s state climatologist, noting that wildfires were also fueled by extreme dry conditions. “In some places, like Arizona and parts of California, it was the hottest summer on record.”
In Arizona and Utah, every county set a record for the highest average monthly temperature in August, NOAA records show. The average August temperature in each of Utah’s 29 counties was at least 5 degrees above normal.
In California, where wildfires have burned a record 3.1 million acres this year, 34 of the state’s 58 counties set a monthly temperature record for August.
Each of the six states also had its highest statewide average monthly temperature for August. California’s average temperature of 79 degrees last month was 5.3 degrees above normal in the state for August.
August heat will have “a carryover effect” in California, University of Colorado fire scientist Jennifer Balch said, making forests and grasslands drier than normal and primed for ignition when the state’s peak wildfire season begins next month with the arrival of strong winds.
“Because fire is so spontaneous, it takes just a little bit of warming to have a lot more burning,” Balch said.
California wildfires have already burned an area the size of Connecticut this year while destroying nearly 6,000 structures and killing 12 people, according to the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection. The 3.1 million acres burned in California in 2020 is well ahead of the annual record of 2 million acres, set in 2018.
The three California counties that saw the biggest spike in August temperatures—Alameda, Contra Costa and San Joaquin—are at the heart of the 400,000-acre SCU Lightning Complex fires, which began Aug. 18 east of San Jose and as of yesterday were nearly contained.
Wildfires have been the main result of the record August temperatures. But the heat also intensified drought conditions in the West, threatening farmers, ranchers and ski resorts.
“Lots of farmers and agriculture communities are facing a season cut short or maybe a season that didn’t materialize at all,” said Jon Meyer, a researcher at the Utah Climate Center and member of a state committee that monitors drought conditions. “The state is really pinching water sources, trying to preserve as much water through the rest of the year.”
Schumacher said the August heat combined with dry conditions to sharply reduce reservoir levels and streamflow, which could lead to restrictions such as water rationing next year.
“If we don’t have a good snowpack year this winter, next summer is when the impacts are really going to come out in terms of water resources," Schumacher said.
‘Loading the dice’
The record August temperatures across the West are part of longer-term national and global warming trends in the past five years.
But in many Western counties, August was insanely hot.
In 23 counties, the average temperature last month was at least 10% higher than normal for August.
Thirty-one counties broke the previous record for average August temperatures by at least 2 degrees.
In total, 155 of the 216 counties in the six states had their hottest August on record. For another 20 counties, last month was the second-hottest August. And 19 counties had their third-hottest August.
The “coldest” county in the six states—Baca County, Colo.—had an average temperature that was just 1.5 degrees above normal.
Oregon and Washington, which have seen massive wildfires spread in recent days, had hotter-than-average temperatures in August but did not set records.
Meyer, the Utah climate researcher, hesitated to attribute the August temperatures to climate change.
“These kind of years certainly would have happened in the past,” he said. “But with climate change, we’re loading the dice, creating a more favorable scenario for those type of years to occur more frequently.
“I’m not sure we can say climate change this year is doing this,” Meyer added. “But this could be the new normal we could expect at the back end of this century.”
Balch of the University of Colorado said the increasing temperatures, dry conditions and development in forested areas aren’t easily changed.
“I’m not expecting this trend to change anytime soon,” she said. “We’re not going to solve the fire problem that’s now a function of climate change by reducing our emissions. We’re kind of stuck with this situation.”
Reprinted from Climatewire with permission from E&E News. E&E provides daily coverage of essential energy and environmental news at www.eenews.net.


scientificamerican--2020-09-11--How Do I Know I'm Not the Only Conscious Being in the Universe?


scientificamerican--2020-09-10--Bricks Can Be Turned into Batteries

Bricks Can Be Turned into Batteries

Bricks are one of the oldest known building materials , dating back thousands of years .
But researchers at Washington University in St. Louis have found a use for bricks : as energy storage units .
A team of engineers and chemists have found a way to transform an ordinary house brick into a pseudo-battery—allowing it to conduct and store electricity .
The bricks are powerful enough to illuminate an LED light bulb , and cost only about $ 3 to make .
“ I love the idea of adding value to things that are inexpensive , things that are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ take for granted.
” Julio D ’ Arcy is an assistant professor of chemistry at Washington University and one of the researchers on this project .
The brick-battery relies on the reddish pigment known as iron oxide , or rust , that gives red bricks their color .
The scientists pumped the bricks with several gases that react with iron oxide to produce a network of plastic fibers .
These microscopic fibers coat the empty spaces the bricks—and conduct electricity .
“ What we 're trying to do is we 're trying to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on the nanoscale where we use very little of the plastic and we can actually embed that plastic inside construction materials ” ) The study is in the journal Nature Communications .
[ Hongmin Wang et al , Energy storing bricks for stationary PEDOT supercapacitors ] In the future , D ’ Arcy says , a brick wall could potentially serve a dual purpose : providing structural support and storing electricity generated from renewable energy sources , such as solar panels .
The technology is still at least a few years away from @ @ @ @ @ @ @ And right now , the energy storage capacity of the bricks is still pretty low — about 1 percent of a lithium ion battery .
But the team is now testing ways to improve brick performance .
Because it looks like you can teach an old brick new tricks .

Full Transcript
Bricks are one of the oldest known building materials, dating back thousands of years.
But researchers at Washington University in St. Louis have found a new use for bricks: as energy storage units. A team of engineers and chemists have found a way to transform an ordinary house brick into a pseudo-battery—allowing it to conduct and store electricity.
The bricks are powerful enough to illuminate an LED light bulb and cost only about $3 to make.
“I love the idea of adding value to things that are inexpensive, things that are affordable, things that we kind of take for granted.”
Julio D’Arcy is an assistant professor of chemistry at Washington University and one of the researchers on this project.
The brick battery relies on the reddish pigment known as iron oxide, or rust, that gives red bricks their color. The scientists pumped the bricks with several gases that react with iron oxide to produce a network of plastic fibers. These microscopic fibers coat the empty spaces inside the bricks—and conduct electricity.
“What we’re trying to do is: we’re trying to make specialized plastics that are only used on the nanoscale—where we use very little of the plastic, and we can actually embed that plastic inside construction materials”)
The study is in the journal Nature Communications. [Hongmin Wang et al., Energy storing bricks for stationary PEDOT supercapacitors]
In the future, D’Arcy says, a brick wall could potentially serve a dual purpose: providing structural support and storing electricity generated from renewable energy sources, such as solar panels.
The technology is still at least a few years away from being ready for the commercial market. And right now the energy storage capacity of the bricks is still pretty low—about 1 percent of a lithium ion battery. But the team is now testing ways to improve brick performance—because it looks like you can teach an old brick new tricks.
—Shahla Farzan
[The above text is a transcript of this podcast.]


scientificamerican--2020-09-12--In Case You Missed It

In Case You Missed It

The earliest dinosaurs laid soft-shelled eggs , paleontologists say .
A new chemical analysis of a more than 200-million-year-old fossilized egg from Patagonia—and a clutch of more recent eggs from Mongolia , found in the Gobi Desert—revealed a thin film matching the characteristics of modern soft-shelled eggs .
Archaeologists found that 20 deep shafts , previously thought to be natural sinkholes and ponds , were dug by Neolithic humans .
The shafts form a circle two kilometers in diameter , with the Durrington Walls monument at its center , just three kilometers from Stonehenge .
In a new paper , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ recorded .
The “ mega-flash , ” which extended for more than 700 kilometers in southern Brazil in 2018 , was detected by a new advanced weather satellite in geostationary orbit .
Researchers sequenced DNA samples from the Dead Sea Scrolls , identifying fragments made from sheep skin and others made from cow hide .
The technique could help match fragments together and unravel the artifacts ' geographic origins .
Scientists identified an elusive nose-horned dragon lizard in the forests of North Sumatra .
Despite appearing in the mythology of the indigenous Bataks @ @ @ @ @ @ @ spotted by scientists only once before—almost 130 years ago .
Submarine drones uncovered an extensive system of underwater “ rivers ” of dense , salty water along Australia 's continental shelf .
These flows carry organic matter from the coast into the deep ocean , and their volume varies seasonally , peaking in winter .

ARGENTINA
The earliest dinosaurs laid soft-shelled eggs, paleontologists say. A new chemical analysis of a more than 200-million-year-old fossilized egg from Patagonia—and a clutch of more recent eggs from Mongolia, found in the Gobi Desert—revealed a thin film matching the characteristics of modern soft-shelled eggs.
ENGLAND
Archaeologists found that 20 deep shafts, previously thought to be natural sinkholes and ponds, were dug by Neolithic humans. The shafts form a circle two kilometers in diameter, with the Durrington Walls monument at its center, just three kilometers from Stonehenge.
BRAZIL
In a new paper, researchers documented the largest lightning bolt ever recorded. The “mega-flash,” which extended for more than 700 kilometers in southern Brazil in 2018, was detected by a new advanced weather satellite in geostationary orbit.
ISRAEL
Researchers sequenced DNA samples from the Dead Sea Scrolls, identifying fragments made from sheep skin and others made from cow hide. The technique could help match fragments together and unravel the artifacts' geographic origins.
INDONESIA
Scientists identified an elusive nose-horned dragon lizard in the forests of North Sumatra. Despite appearing in the mythology of the indigenous Bataks, the visually striking species had been spotted by scientists only once before—almost 130 years ago.
AUSTRALIA
Submarine drones uncovered an extensive system of underwater “rivers” of dense, salty water along Australia's continental shelf. These flows carry organic matter from the coast into the deep ocean, and their volume varies seasonally, peaking in winter.


scientificamerican--2020-09-12--Evolution Education in the U.S. Is Getting Better

Woo-hoo , d ’ oh , or meh ?
Which of these Simpsonian reactions is appropriate to the fact , revealed by a 2019 survey conducted by researchers at Penn State University and the National Center for Science Education ( NCSE ) , that about two in three—67 percent—of public high school biology teachers are presenting evolution forthrightly , emphasizing the broad scientific consensus on evolution while not giving any credence to creationism ?
Only in the context of the long and contentious history of evolution education in the United States is it clear what the most plausible answer is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ afforded the luxury of teaching evolution forthrightly .
John Thomas Scopes , for example , was famously prosecuted for violating Tennessee ’ s ban on teaching evolution in 1925 .
Although his conviction was subsequently overturned , a national survey of high school biology teachers conducted in 1939–1940 revealed that only about half were teaching evolution as a central principle of biology .
And bans on teaching evolution remained in place in Arkansas , Mississippi and Tennessee until 1970 .
New obstacles then emerged , particularly requirements to teach various forms of creationism @ @ @ @ @ @ @ as 15 years ago , in Dover , Pennsylvania , the local school board attempted to require its high school biology teachers to read a statement to their ninth-grade students describing “ Darwin ’ s theory of evolution ” as “ not a fact , ” and commending “ intelligent design ” —then a trendy slogan for creationism—to their attention as a scientifically credible alternative .
The teachers , to their credit , unanimously refused to comply .
But their refusal , together with the controversy surrounding the related trial over the constitutionality @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Kitzmiller v. Dover , intrigued two parents a hundred miles to the northwest , in State College , Pa. Michael Berkman and Eric Plutzer were not just any concerned parents , though : they were political scientists at Penn State with a particular interest in education policy .
What—they wondered—are high school biology teachers teaching about evolution , and what factors influence their teaching practices ?
To satisfy their curiosity , Berkman and Plutzer conducted the first modern national survey of high school biology teachers in 2007 .
The results were dire .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ , reported that they emphasized the broad scientific consensus on evolution while not giving any credence to creationism , as if to suggest no progress in the 67 years since the less rigorous survey of 1939–1940 .
That ’ s why the results of the 2019 survey—a collaboration between Plutzer and the NCSE—are so encouraging .
Between 2007 and 2019 , there definitely was progress : from 51 percent of high school biology teachers reporting emphasizing evolution and not creationism in 2007 to 67 percent in 2019 .
It was matched by a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ teachers who offer mixed messages by endorsing both evolution and creationism as a valid scientific alternative to evolution , from 18 to 15 percent of teachers who endorse neither evolution nor creationism , and from 8.6 to 5.6 percent of teachers who endorse creationism while not endorsing evolution .
What accounts for the improvement ?
Did intelligent design ’ s crushing defeat in the Kitzmiller trial make the difference ?
Probably not .
Science teachers are guided not by case law but by state science standards , which specify what students in the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to learn .
Standards thus influence the content of textbooks , statewide testing , and coursework for pre-service and in-service teachers .
Importantly , they also provide a shield for teachers facing misguided community pressure over socially contentious topics like evolution .
The results of the 2019 survey suggest that a concerted effort to improve state science standards helped to improve evolution education .
The Next Generation Science Standards , which debuted in 2013 , include “ Biological Evolution : Unity and Diversity ” as a disciplinary core idea of the life sciences @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
By now , 20 states ( plus the District of Columbia ) have adopted the NGSS , and a further 24 states have adopted standards based on the same evolution-friendly framework on which the NGSS are based .
Were states that adopted the NGSS especially hospitable to the teaching of evolution ?
Not really : in 2007 , their teachers were less likely to endorse evolution and not creationism than the national average .
By 2019 , they were more likely .
While a variety of explanations are possible , teachers in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and in-service coursework in evolution than their colleagues elsewhere , suggesting that the increased expectations impelled both novice and veteran teachers to upgrade their content knowledge of evolution .
Despite the encouraging trend over a mere dozen years , there is still reason for concern : after all , more than one in six high school biology teachers , 17.6 percent , are still presenting creationism as a scientifically credible alternative to evolution .
And almost as many high school biology teachers , 15 percent , are still failing to emphasize the broad @ @ @ @ @ @ @ general prevalence in state science standards and despite encouragement from professional organizations .
D ’ oh !
With 13,500-odd local school districts having primary responsibility for curriculum and instruction , changes to science education are inevitably going to be slow , scattered and incremental .
Still , with the aid of uncounted scientists , educators , policymakers , administrators and concerned citizens in general ( and perhaps even a certain episode of The Simpsons ) , clear and convincing improvements for evolution education were demonstrably attained in just a dozen years .
It @ @ @ @ @ @ @ !
—but also enlarging upon .

Woo-hoo, d’oh, or meh? Which of these Simpsonian reactions is appropriate to the fact, revealed by a 2019 survey conducted by researchers at Penn State University and the National Center for Science Education (NCSE), that about two in three—67 percent—of public high school biology teachers are presenting evolution forthrightly, emphasizing the broad scientific consensus on evolution while not giving any credence to creationism? Only in the context of the long and contentious history of evolution education in the United States is it clear what the most plausible answer is.
American teachers have not always been afforded the luxury of teaching evolution forthrightly. John Thomas Scopes, for example, was famously prosecuted for violating Tennessee’s ban on teaching evolution in 1925. Although his conviction was subsequently overturned, a national survey of high school biology teachers conducted in 1939–1940 revealed that only about half were teaching evolution as a central principle of biology. And bans on teaching evolution remained in place in Arkansas, Mississippi and Tennessee until 1970.
New obstacles then emerged, particularly requirements to teach various forms of creationism as alternatives to evolution. As recently as 15 years ago, in Dover, Pennsylvania, the local school board attempted to require its high school biology teachers to read a statement to their ninth-grade students describing “Darwin’s theory of evolution” as “not a fact,” and commending “intelligent design”—then a trendy slogan for creationism—to their attention as a scientifically credible alternative. The teachers, to their credit, unanimously refused to comply.
But their refusal, together with the controversy surrounding the related trial over the constitutionality of the board’s actions, Kitzmiller v. Dover, intrigued two parents a hundred miles to the northwest, in State College, Pa. Michael Berkman and Eric Plutzer were not just any concerned parents, though: they were political scientists at Penn State with a particular interest in education policy. What—they wondered—are high school biology teachers teaching about evolution, and what factors influence their teaching practices?
To satisfy their curiosity, Berkman and Plutzer conducted the first modern national survey of high school biology teachers in 2007. The results were dire. Only a slight majority, 51 percent, reported that they emphasized the broad scientific consensus on evolution while not giving any credence to creationism, as if to suggest no progress in the 67 years since the less rigorous survey of 1939–1940. That’s why the results of the 2019 survey—a collaboration between Plutzer and the NCSE—are so encouraging.
Between 2007 and 2019, there definitely was progress: from 51 percent of high school biology teachers reporting emphasizing evolution and not creationism in 2007 to 67 percent in 2019. It was matched by a drop from 23 to 12 percent of teachers who offer mixed messages by endorsing both evolution and creationism as a valid scientific alternative to evolution, from 18 to 15 percent of teachers who endorse neither evolution nor creationism, and from 8.6 to 5.6 percent of teachers who endorse creationism while not endorsing evolution.
Credit: National Center for Science Education
What accounts for the improvement? Did intelligent design’s crushing defeat in the Kitzmiller trial make the difference? Probably not. Science teachers are guided not by case law but by state science standards, which specify what students in the state’s public schools are expected to learn. Standards thus influence the content of textbooks, statewide testing, and coursework for pre-service and in-service teachers. Importantly, they also provide a shield for teachers facing misguided community pressure over socially contentious topics like evolution.
The results of the 2019 survey suggest that a concerted effort to improve state science standards helped to improve evolution education. The Next Generation Science Standards (NGSS) , which debuted in 2013, include “Biological Evolution: Unity and Diversity” as a disciplinary core idea of the life sciences at the middle and high school levels. By now, 20 states (plus the District of Columbia) have adopted the NGSS, and a further 24 states have adopted standards based on the same evolution-friendly framework on which the NGSS are based.
Were states that adopted the NGSS especially hospitable to the teaching of evolution? Not really: in 2007, their teachers were less likely to endorse evolution and not creationism than the national average. By 2019, they were more likely. While a variety of explanations are possible, teachers in NGSS states reported having taken more pre-service and in-service coursework in evolution than their colleagues elsewhere, suggesting that the increased expectations impelled both novice and veteran teachers to upgrade their content knowledge of evolution.
Despite the encouraging trend over a mere dozen years, there is still reason for concern: after all, more than one in six high school biology teachers, 17.6 percent, are still presenting creationism as a scientifically credible alternative to evolution. And almost as many high school biology teachers, 15 percent, are still failing to emphasize the broad scientific consensus on evolution, despite its general prevalence in state science standards and despite encouragement from professional organizations. D’oh!
With 13,500-odd local school districts having primary responsibility for curriculum and instruction, changes to science education are inevitably going to be slow, scattered and incremental. Still, with the aid of uncounted scientists, educators, policymakers, administrators and concerned citizens in general (and perhaps even a certain episode of The Simpsons), clear and convincing improvements for evolution education were demonstrably attained in just a dozen years. It is a victory worth not only celebrating—woo-hoo!—but also enlarging upon.


scientificamerican--2020-09-13--Earth Hasn't Warmed This Fast in Tens of Millions of Years

Scientists just completed one of the most comprehensive investigations of Earth ’ s climate history—and the findings aren ’ t favorable .
They found that the planet could eventually warm to levels it hasn ’ t reached in at least 34 million years .
The researchers , led by Thomas Westerhold of the University of Bremen in Germany , constructed datasets using chemical analyses of ancient sediments , drilled from the bottom of the ocean .
These sediments , some of which are 66 million years old , are filled with the preserved shells of tiny organisms that can tell @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of the ocean when they were formed .
The sediments , collected from around the world over the course of many years , allowed the researchers to reconstruct Earth ’ s climate history going back to the mass extinction that killed three-quarters of the planet ’ s species , including dinosaurs .
They found that the planet has passed through four distinct climate phases : warmhouse , hothouse , coolhouse and icehouse states .
Transitions from one state to another have generally depended on changing greenhouse gas levels , often driven by volcanic @ @ @ @ @ @ @ shifts in the Earth ’ s orbit that affected the amount of solar energy reaching the planet .
In the hottest phases , more than 50 million years ago , temperatures on Earth were more than 10 degrees Celsius hotter than they are today .
But it ’ s important to note that it took the planet thousands or even millions of years to reach these levels—and that was long before humans ever walked the Earth .
That ’ s in stark contrast to the kind of climate change that human activity is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ now , the world has been in an icehouse state .
But that ’ s quickly changing .
If human societies do nothing to curb their greenhouse gas emissions , in just a few centuries the Earth could once again reach a temperature threshold not seen for at least 34 million years .
Before the industrial era , such a magnitude of warming would have taken thousands of years to occur , at least .
“ If you look at the worst-case scenario [ by 2300 ] , the change in mean global @ @ @ @ @ @ @ natural variability going back over the last 66 million years related to changes in the Earth ’ s orbit , ” said Jim Zachos , a paleoclimatologist at the University of California , Santa Cruz , and a co-author of the new study , which was published Thursday in the journal Science .
It ’ s not an inevitable future .
With immediate and stringent action to reduce climate change , the world can keep global temperatures from rising more than a few degrees above their preindustrial levels .
But the study does @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is on track for some of the strongest , fastest climate change the planet has ever experienced .
The study may also provide some important insights into how climate change could unfold in the coming decades and centuries .
Earth ’ s climate doesn ’ t always shift in linear , predictable ways .
There are all kinds of feedback processes that can speed things up or slow things down—such as the speed at which glaciers and sea ice melt or the way that clouds change in response to future warming .
In @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the study suggests that the world ’ s ice sheets played an important role in regulating the pace and predictability of the Earth ’ s climate response to natural changes in greenhouse gases or orbital shifts .
Today , scientists believe that the world ’ s melting ice may also have a big impact on future climate change .
These kinds of feedback processes can make it challenging to predict future change , especially over relatively short periods of time .
Reconstructing the Earth ’ s long-term climate history can help scientists test @ @ @ @ @ @ @ future .
If a model can accurately simulate the past , scientists may have more confidence in its ability to simulate present-day climate processes .
“ That ’ s the beauty of this record , ” Zachos said .
“ It ’ s something we ’ ve always wanted to have because of the applicability to testing climate theory.
” Reprinted from Climatewire with permission from E & E News .
E & E provides daily coverage of essential energy and environmental news at www.eenews.net .

Scientists just completed one of the most comprehensive investigations of Earth’s climate history—and the findings aren’t favorable.
They found that the planet could eventually warm to levels it hasn’t reached in at least 34 million years.
The researchers, led by Thomas Westerhold of the University of Bremen in Germany, constructed datasets using chemical analyses of ancient sediments, drilled from the bottom of the ocean. These sediments, some of which are 66 million years old, are filled with the preserved shells of tiny organisms that can tell scientists about the temperature and chemical composition of the ocean when they were formed.
The sediments, collected from around the world over the course of many years, allowed the researchers to reconstruct Earth’s climate history going back to the mass extinction that killed three-quarters of the planet’s species, including dinosaurs.
They found that the planet has passed through four distinct climate phases: warmhouse, hothouse, coolhouse and icehouse states.
Transitions from one state to another have generally depended on changing greenhouse gas levels, often driven by volcanic eruptions and other natural processes, and shifts in the Earth’s orbit that affected the amount of solar energy reaching the planet.
In the hottest phases, more than 50 million years ago, temperatures on Earth were more than 10 degrees Celsius hotter than they are today. But it’s important to note that it took the planet thousands or even millions of years to reach these levels—and that was long before humans ever walked the Earth.
That’s in stark contrast to the kind of climate change that human activity is driving today.
For several million years now, the world has been in an icehouse state. But that’s quickly changing. If human societies do nothing to curb their greenhouse gas emissions, in just a few centuries the Earth could once again reach a temperature threshold not seen for at least 34 million years.
Before the industrial era, such a magnitude of warming would have taken thousands of years to occur, at least.
“If you look at the worst-case scenario [by 2300], the change in mean global temperature is larger than most of the natural variability going back over the last 66 million years related to changes in the Earth’s orbit,” said Jim Zachos, a paleoclimatologist at the University of California, Santa Cruz, and a co-author of the new study, which was published Thursday in the journal Science.
It’s not an inevitable future. With immediate and stringent action to reduce climate change, the world can keep global temperatures from rising more than a few degrees above their preindustrial levels.
But the study does warn that without these efforts, Earth is on track for some of the strongest, fastest climate change the planet has ever experienced.
The study may also provide some important insights into how climate change could unfold in the coming decades and centuries.
Earth’s climate doesn’t always shift in linear, predictable ways. There are all kinds of feedback processes that can speed things up or slow things down—such as the speed at which glaciers and sea ice melt or the way that clouds change in response to future warming.
In the ancient past, for instance, the study suggests that the world’s ice sheets played an important role in regulating the pace and predictability of the Earth’s climate response to natural changes in greenhouse gases or orbital shifts. Today, scientists believe that the world’s melting ice may also have a big impact on future climate change.
These kinds of feedback processes can make it challenging to predict future change, especially over relatively short periods of time.
Reconstructing the Earth’s long-term climate history can help scientists test the models they use to predict its future. If a model can accurately simulate the past, scientists may have more confidence in its ability to simulate present-day climate processes.
“That’s the beauty of this record,” Zachos said. “It’s something we’ve always wanted to have because of the applicability to testing climate theory.”
Reprinted from Climatewire with permission from E&E News. E&E provides daily coverage of essential energy and environmental news at www.eenews.net.