lewrockwell--2020-09-18--Open Letter From Medical Doctors and Health Professionals to All Belgian Authorities and All Belgian

Open Letter From Medical Doctors and Health Professionals to All Belgian Authorities and All Belgian Media

The original source of this article is Docs4opendebate We , Belgian doctors and health professionals , wish to express our serious concern about the evolution of the situation in the recent months surrounding the outbreak of the SARS-CoV-2 virus .
We call on politicians to be independently and critically informed in the decision-making process and in the compulsory implementation of corona-measures .
We ask for an open debate , where all experts are represented without any form of censorship .
After the initial panic surrounding covid-19 , the objective facts now show a completely different picture – there is no @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
The current crisis management has become totally disproportionate and causes more damage than it does any good .
We call for an end to all measures and ask for an immediate restoration of our normal democratic governance and legal structures and of all our civil liberties .
Pure Beech Jersey Knit ... Buy New $ 99.99 ‘ A cure must not be worse than the problem ’ is a thesis that is more relevant than ever in the current situation .
We note , however , that the collateral damage now being @ @ @ @ @ @ @ greater impact in the short and long term on all sections of the population than the number of people now being safeguarded from corona .
In our opinion , the current corona measures and the strict penalties for non-compliance with them are contrary to the values formulated by the Belgian Supreme Health Council , which , until recently , as the health authority , has always ensured quality medicine in our country : “ Science – Expertise – Quality – Impartiality – Independence – Transparency ” .
1 We believe that the policy @ @ @ @ @ @ @ sufficiently scientifically based , unilaterally directed , and that there is not enough space in the media for an open debate in which different views and opinions are heard .
In addition , each municipality and province now has the authorisation to add its own measures , whether well-founded or not .
Moreover , the strict repressive policy on corona strongly contrasts with the government ’ s minimal policy when it comes to disease prevention , strengthening our own immune system through a healthy lifestyle , optimal care with attention for the individual @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , the WHO defined health as follows : ‘ Health is a state of complete physical , mental and social well-being and not merely the absence of disease or other physical impairment ’ .3 Health , therefore , is a broad concept that goes beyond the physical and also relates to the emotional and social well-being of the individual .
Belgium also has a duty , from the point of view of subscribing to fundamental human rights , to include these human rights in its decision-making when it comes to measures taken in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The current global measures taken to combat SARS-CoV-2 violate to a large extent this view of health and human rights .
Measures include compulsory wearing of a mask ( also in open air and during sporting activities , and in some municipalities even when there are no other people in the vicinity ) , physical distancing , social isolation , compulsory quarantine for some groups and hygiene measures .
The predicted pandemic with millions of deaths At the beginning of the pandemic , the measures were understandable and widely supported , even if @ @ @ @ @ @ @ countries around us .
The WHO originally predicted a pandemic that would claim 3.4 % victims , in other words millions of deaths , and a highly contagious virus for which no treatment or vaccine was available .
This would put unprecedented pressure on the intensive care units ( ICUs ) of our hospitals .
This led to a global alarm situation , never seen in the history of mankind : “ flatten the curve ” was represented by a lockdown that shut down the entire society and economy and quarantined healthy people @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in anticipation of a rescue vaccine .
Gradually , the alarm bell was sounded from many sources : the objective facts showed a completely different reality .
5 6 of covid-19 followed the course of a normal wave of infection similar to a flu season .
As every year , we see a mix of flu viruses following the curve : first the rhinoviruses , then the influenza A and B viruses , followed by the coronaviruses .
There is nothing different from what we normally see .
The use of the non-specific @ @ @ @ @ @ @ positives , showed an exponential picture .
This test was rushed through with an emergency procedure and was never seriously self-tested .
The creator expressly warned that this test was intended for research and not for diagnostics.7 The PCR test works with cycles of amplification of genetic material – a piece of genome is amplified each time .
Any contamination ( e.g .
other viruses , debris from old virus genomes ) can possibly result in false positives.8 Brielle Sateen 100 % Mo ... Buy New $ 14.99 The test does not measure @ @ @ @ @ @ @ sample .
A real viral infection means a massive presence of viruses , the so-called virus load .
If someone tests positive , this does not mean that that person is actually clinically infected , is ill or is going to become ill. Koch ’ s postulate was not fulfilled ( “ The pure agent found in a patient with complaints can provoke the same complaints in a healthy person ” ) .
Since a positive PCR test does not automatically indicate active infection or infectivity , this does not justify the social @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on these tests .
9 10 If we compare the waves of infection in countries with strict lockdown policies to countries that did not impose lockdowns ( Sweden , Iceland … ) , we see similar curves .
So there is no link between the imposed lockdown and the course of the infection .
Lockdown has not led to a lower mortality rate .
If we look at the date of application of the imposed lockdowns we see that the lockdowns were set after the peak was already over and the number of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ not the result of the taken measures .
11 As every year , it seems that climatic conditions ( weather , temperature and humidity ) and growing immunity are more likely to reduce the wave of infection .
For thousands of years , the human body has been exposed daily to moisture and droplets containing infectious microorganisms ( viruses , bacteria and fungi ) .
Pure Beech 3-Piece Bat ... Buy New $ 14.99 The penetration of these microorganisms is prevented by an advanced defence mechanism – the immune system .
A strong @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to these microbial influences .
Overly hygienic measures have a detrimental effect on our immunity .
12 13 Only people with a weak or faulty immune system should be protected by extensive hygiene or social distancing .
Influenza will re-emerge in the autumn ( in combination with covid-19 ) and a possible decrease in natural resilience may lead to further casualties .
Our immune system consists of two parts : a congenital , non-specific immune system and an adaptive immune system .
forms a first barrier : skin , saliva , gastric juice @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , commensal flora , … and prevents the attachment of micro-organisms to tissue .
If they do attach , macrophages can cause the microorganisms to be encapsulated and destroyed .
consists of mucosal immunity ( IgA antibodies , mainly produced by cells in the intestines and lung epithelium ) , cellular immunity ( T-cell activation ) , which can be generated in contact with foreign substances or microorganisms , and humoral immunity ( IgM and IgG antibodies produced by the B cells ) .
Recent research shows that both systems are highly entangled @ @ @ @ @ @ @ have a congenital or general immunity to e.g .
influenza and other viruses .
This is confirmed by the findings on the cruise ship Diamond Princess , which was quarantined because of a few passengers who died of Covid-19 .
Most of the passengers were elderly and were in an ideal situation of transmission on the ship .
However , 75 % did not appear to be infected .
So even in this high-risk group , the majority are resistant to the virus .
SUPERIOR 300 Thread Co ... Buy New $ 63.71 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that most people neutralise the coronavirus by mucosal ( IgA ) and cellular immunity ( T-cells ) , while experiencing few or no symptoms 14 .
Researchers found up to 60 % SARS-Cov-2 reactivity with CD4+T cells in a non-infected population , suggesting cross-reactivity with other cold ( corona ) viruses.15 Most people therefore already have a congenital or cross-immunity because they were already in contact with variants of the same virus .
The antibody formation ( IgM and IgG ) by B-cells only occupies a relatively small part of our immune system @ @ @ @ @ @ @ an antibody percentage of 5-10 % , there may be a group immunity anyway .
The efficacy of vaccines is assessed precisely on the basis of whether or not we have these antibodies .
This is a misrepresentation .
Most people who test positive ( PCR ) have no complaints .
Their immune system is strong enough .
Strengthening natural immunity is a much more logical approach .
Prevention is an important , insufficiently highlighted pillar : healthy , full-fledged nutrition , exercise in fresh air , without a mask , stress reduction @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Consequences of social isolation on physical and mental health Social isolation and economic damage led to an increase in depression , anxiety , suicides , intra-family violence and child abuse.16 Studies have shown that the more social and emotional commitments people have , the more resistant they are to viruses .
It is much more likely that isolation and quarantine have fatal consequences .
17 The isolation measures have also led to physical inactivity in many older people due to their being forced to stay indoors .
However , sufficient exercise has a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ depressive complaints and anxiety and improving physical health , energy levels , well-being and , in general , quality of life.18 Fear , persistent stress and loneliness induced by social distancing have a proven negative influence on psychological and general health .
19 A highly contagious virus with millions of deaths without any treatment ?
Mortality turned out to be many times lower than expected and close to that of a normal seasonal flu ( 0.2 % ) .
20 The number of registered corona deaths therefore still seems to be overestimated .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ corona and death with corona .
Humans are often carriers of multiple viruses and potentially pathogenic bacteria at the same time .
Taking into account the fact that most people who developed serious symptoms suffered from additional pathology , one can not simply conclude that the corona-infection was the cause of death .
This was mostly not taken into account in the statistics .
The most vulnerable groups can be clearly identified .
The vast majority of deceased patients were 80 years of age or older .
The majority ( 70 % ) @ @ @ @ @ @ @ years , had an underlying disorder , such as cardiovascular suffering , diabetes mellitus , chronic lung disease or obesity .
The vast majority of infected persons ( > 98 % ) did not or hardly became ill or recovered spontaneously .
Meanwhile , there is an affordable , safe and efficient therapy available for those who do show severe symptoms of disease in the form of HCQ ( hydroxychloroquine ) , zinc and AZT ( azithromycin ) .
Rapidly applied this therapy leads to recovery and often prevents hospitalisation .
Hardly anyone @ @ @ @ @ @ @ therapy has been confirmed by the clinical experience of colleagues in the field with impressive results .
This contrasts sharply with the theoretical criticism ( insufficient substantiation by double-blind studies ) which in some countries ( e.g .
the Netherlands ) has even led to a ban on this therapy .
A meta-analysis in The Lancet , which could not demonstrate an effect of HCQ , was withdrawn .
The primary data sources used proved to be unreliable and 2 out of 3 authors were in conflict of interest .
However , most @ @ @ @ @ @ @ remained unchanged … 48 49 We have serious questions about this state of affairs .
In the US , a group of doctors in the field , who see patients on a daily basis , united in “ America ’ s Frontline Doctors ” and gave a press conference which has been watched millions of times.21 51 French Prof Didier Raoult of the Institut d ’ Infectiologie de Marseille ( IHU ) also presented this promising combination therapy as early as April .
Dutch GP Rob Elens , who cured many patients in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ called on colleagues in a petition for freedom of therapy.22 The definitive evidence comes from the epidemiological follow-up in Switzerland : mortality rates compared with and without this therapy.23 From the distressing media images of ARDS ( acute respiratory distress syndrome ) where people were suffocating and given artificial respiration in agony , we now know that this was caused by an exaggerated immune response with intravascular coagulation in the pulmonary blood vessels .
The administration of blood thinners and dexamethasone and the avoidance of artificial ventilation , which was found to cause @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that this dreaded complication , too , is virtually not fatal anymore .
47 It is therefore not a killer virus , but a well-treatable condition .
Spreading occurs by drip infection ( only for patients who cough or sneeze ) and aerosols in closed , unventilated rooms .
Contamination is therefore not possible in the open air .
Contact tracing and epidemiological studies show that healthy people ( or positively tested asymptomatic carriers ) are virtually unable to transmit the virus .
Healthy people therefore do not put each other at risk @ @ @ @ @ @ @ e.g .
money , shopping or shopping trolleys ) has not been scientifically proven.26 27 28 All this seriously calls into question the whole policy of social distancing and compulsory mouth masks for healthy people – there is no scientific basis for this .
Oral masks belong in contexts where contacts with proven at-risk groups or people with upper respiratory complaints take place , and in a medical context/hospital-retirement home setting .
They reduce the risk of droplet infection by sneezing or coughing .
Oral masks in healthy individuals are ineffective against the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 31 Wearing a mask is not without side effects .
32 33 Oxygen deficiency ( headache , nausea , fatigue , loss of concentration ) occurs fairly quickly , an effect similar to altitude sickness .
Every day we now see patients complaining of headaches , sinus problems , respiratory problems and hyperventilation due to wearing masks .
In addition , the accumulated CO2 leads to a toxic acidification of the organism which affects our immunity .
Some experts even warn of an increased transmission of the virus in case of inappropriate use @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Codex 6 ) refers to a CO2 content ( ventilation in workplaces ) of 900 ppm , maximum 1200 ppm in special circumstances .
After wearing a mask for one minute , this toxic limit is considerably exceeded to values that are three to four times higher than these maximum values .
Anyone who wears a mask is therefore in an extreme poorly ventilated room .
35 Inappropriate use of masks without a comprehensive medical cardio-pulmonary test file is therefore not recommended by recognised safety specialists for workers .
Hospitals have a sterile @ @ @ @ @ @ @ wear masks and there is precise regulation of humidity / temperature with appropriately monitored oxygen flow to compensate for this , thus meeting strict safety standards .
36 A second wave is now being discussed in Belgium , with a further tightening of the measures as a result .
However , closer examination of Sciensano ’ s figures ( latest report of 3 September 2020 ) 37 shows that , although there has been an increase in the number of infections since mid-July , there was no increase in hospital admissions or deaths @ @ @ @ @ @ @ not a second wave of corona , but a so-called “ case chemistry ” due to an increased number of tests .
50 The number of hospital admissions or deaths showed a shortlasting minimal increase in recent weeks , but in interpreting it , we must take into account the recent heatwave .
In addition , the vast majority of the victims are still in the population group > 75 years .
This indicates that the proportion of the measures taken in relation to the working population and young people is disproportionate to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of the positively tested “ infected ” persons are in the age group of the active population , which does not develop any or merely limited symptoms , due to a well-functioning immune system .
So nothing has changed – the peak is over .
The corona measures form a striking contrast to the minimal policy pursued by the government until now , when it comes to well-founded measures with proven health benefits such as the sugar tax , the ban on ( e- ) cigarettes and making healthy food , exercise and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ accessible .
It is a missed opportunity for a better prevention policy that could have brought about a change in mentality in all sections of the population with clear results in terms of public health .
At present , only 3 % of the health care budget goes to prevention .
2 As a doctor , we took the Hippocratic Oath : “ I will above all care for my patients , promote their health and alleviate their suffering ” .
“ Even under pressure , I will not use my medical knowledge @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The current measures force us to act against this oath .
Other health professionals have a similar code .
The ‘ primum non nocere ’ , which every doctor and health professional assumes , is also undermined by the current measures and by the prospect of the possible introduction of a generalised vaccine , which is not subject to extensive prior testing .
Survey studies on influenza vaccinations show that in 10 years we have only succeeded three times in developing a vaccine with an efficiency rate of more than 50 % .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Over 75 years of age , the efficacy is almost non-existent.38 Due to the continuous natural mutation of viruses , as we also see every year in the case of the influenza virus , a vaccine is at most a temporary solution , which requires new vaccines each time afterwards .
An untested vaccine , which is implemented by emergency procedure and for which the manufacturers have already obtained legal immunity from possible harm , raises serious questions .
39 40 We do not wish to use our patients as guinea pigs @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 000 cases of damage or death are expected as a result of the vaccine.41 If 95 % of people experience Covid-19 virtually symptom-free , the risk of exposure to an untested vaccine is irresponsible .
The role of the media and the official communication plan Over the past few months , newspaper , radio and TV makers seemed to stand almost uncritically behind the panel of experts and the government , there , where it is precisely the press that should be critical and prevent one-sided governmental communication .
This has led to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , that was more like propaganda than objective reporting .
In our opinion , it is the task of journalism to bring news as objectively and neutrally as possible , aimed at finding the truth and critically controlling power , with dissenting experts also being given a forum in which to express themselves .
This view is supported by the journalistic codes of ethics.42 The official story that a lockdown was necessary , that this was the only possible solution , and that everyone stood behind this lockdown , made it difficult for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ well as experts , to express a different opinion .
Alternative opinions were ignored or ridiculed .
We have not seen open debates in the media , where different views could be expressed .
We were also surprised by the many videos and articles by many scientific experts and authorities , which were and are still being removed from social media .
We feel that this does not fit in with a free , democratic constitutional state , all the more so as it leads to tunnel vision .
This policy also has @ @ @ @ @ @ @ concern in society .
In this context , we reject the intention of censorship of dissidents in the European Union !
43 The way in which Covid-19 has been portrayed by politicians and the media has not done the situation any good either .
War terms were popular and warlike language was not lacking .
There has often been mention of a ‘ war ’ with an ‘ invisible enemy ’ who has to be ‘ defeated ’ .
The use in the media of phrases such as ‘ care heroes in the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ has further fuelled fear , as has the idea that we are globally dealing with a ‘ killer virus ’ .
The relentless bombardment with figures , that were unleashed on the population day after day , hour after hour , without interpreting those figures , without comparing them to flu deaths in other years , without comparing them to deaths from other causes , has induced a real psychosis of fear in the population .
This is not information , this is manipulation .
We deplore the role of the WHO @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the infodemic ( i.e .
all divergent opinions from the official discourse , including by experts with different views ) to be silenced by an unprecedented media censorship.43 44 We urgently call on the media to take their responsibilities here !
We demand an open debate in which all experts are heard .
The general principle of good governance calls for the proportionality of government decisions to be weighed up in the light of the Higher Legal Standards : any interference by government must comply with the fundamental rights as protected in the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ) .
Interference by public authorities is only permitted in crisis situations .
In other words , discretionary decisions must be proportionate to an absolute necessity .
The measures currently taken concern interference in the exercise of , among other things , the right to respect of private and family life , freedom of thought , conscience and religion , freedom of expression and freedom of assembly and association , the right to education , etc.
, and must therefore comply with fundamental rights as protected by the European Convention on Human Rights @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in accordance with Article 8 ( 2 ) of the ECHR , interference with the right to private and family life is permissible only if the measures are necessary in the interests of national security , public safety , the economic well-being of the country , the protection of public order and the prevention of criminal offences , the protection of health or the protection of the rights and freedoms of others , the regulatory text on which the interference is based must be sufficiently clear , foreseeable and proportionate to the objectives @ @ @ @ @ @ @ deaths seemed to respond to these crisis conditions , leading to the establishment of an emergency government .
Now that the objective facts show something completely different , the condition of inability to act otherwise ( no time to evaluate thoroughly if there is an emergency ) is no longer in place .
Covid-19 is not a cold virus , but a well treatable condition with a mortality rate comparable to the seasonal flu .
In other words , there is no longer an insurmountable obstacle to public health .
There is no @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on corona measures means that , in addition to the years of life gained by corona patients , we must also take into account other factors affecting the health of the entire population .
These include damage in the psychosocial domain ( increase in depression , anxiety , suicides , intra-family violence and child abuse ) 16 and economic damage .
If we take this collateral damage into account , the current policy is out of all proportion , the proverbial use of a sledgehammer to crack a nut .
We find it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ as a reason for the emergency law .
As doctors and health professionals , in the face of a virus which , in terms of its harmfulness , mortality and transmissibility , approaches the seasonal influenza , we can only reject these extremely disproportionate measures .
• We therefore demand an immediate end to all measures .
• We are questioning the legitimacy of the current advisory experts , who meet behind closed doors .
• Following on from ACU 2020 46 https : //acu2020.org/nederlandse-versie/ we call for an in-depth examination of the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ influence of conflicts of interest in this organisation .
It was also at the heart of the fight against the “ infodemic ” , i.e .
the systematic censorship of all dissenting opinions in the media .
This is unacceptable for a democratic state governed by the rule of law.43 We would like to make a public appeal to our professional associations and fellow carers to give their opinion on the current measures .
We draw attention to and call for an open discussion in which carers can and dare to speak out @ @ @ @ @ @ @ send out the signal that progress on the same footing does more harm than good , and call on politicians to inform themselves independently and critically about the available evidence – including that from experts with different views , as long as it is based on sound science – when rolling out a policy , with the aim of promoting optimum health .
With concern , hope and in a personal capacity .
• President John Magufuli of Tanzania : “ Even Papaya and Goats are Corona positive ” https : //www.youtube.com/watch ?
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ Mario Ortiz Martinez to the Dutch chamber https : //www.gentechvrij.nl/2020/08/15/foute-interpretatie/ • Lambrecht , B. , Hammad , H. The immunology of the allergy epidemic and the hygiene hypothesis .
Nat Immunol 18 , 1076–1083 ( 2017 ) .
https : //www.nature.com/articles/ni.3829 • Sharvan Sehrawat , Barry T. Rouse , Does the hygiene hypothesis apply to COVID-19 susceptibility ?
, Microbes and Infection , 2020 , ISSN 1286-4579 , https : //doi.org/10.1016/j.micinf.2020.07.002 • Feys , F. , Brokken , S. , & De Peuter , S. ( 2020 , May 22 ) .
Risk-benefit @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Belgium : the impact on mental health and wellbeing .
https : //psyarxiv.com/xczb3/ • Haralambieva , I.H .
et al.
, 2015 .
The impact of immunosenescence on humoral immune response variation after influenza A/H1N1 vaccination in older subjects .
https : //pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/26044074/ • Disinformation related to COVID-19 approaches European Commission EurLex , juni 2020 ( this file will not damage your computer ) • There is no revival of the pandemic , but a so-called casedemic due to more testing .
https : //www.greenmedinfo.com/blog/crucial-viewing-understanding-covid-19-casedemic1

The original source of this article is Docs4opendebate
We, Belgian doctors and health professionals, wish to express our serious concern about the evolution of the situation in the recent months surrounding the outbreak of the SARS-CoV-2 virus. We call on politicians to be independently and critically informed in the decision-making process and in the compulsory implementation of corona-measures. We ask for an open debate, where all experts are represented without any form of censorship. After the initial panic surrounding covid-19, the objective facts now show a completely different picture – there is no medical justification for any emergency policy anymore.
The current crisis management has become totally disproportionate and causes more damage than it does any good.
We call for an end to all measures and ask for an immediate restoration of our normal democratic governance and legal structures and of all our civil liberties.
Pure Beech Jersey Knit... Buy New $99.99 (as of 05:50 UTC - Details) ‘A cure must not be worse than the problem’ is a thesis that is more relevant than ever in the current situation. We note, however, that the collateral damage now being caused to the population will have a greater impact in the short and long term on all sections of the population than the number of people now being safeguarded from corona.
In our opinion, the current corona measures and the strict penalties for non-compliance with them are contrary to the values formulated by the Belgian Supreme Health Council, which, until recently, as the health authority, has always ensured quality medicine in our country: “Science – Expertise – Quality – Impartiality – Independence – Transparency”. 1
We believe that the policy has introduced mandatory measures that are not sufficiently scientifically based, unilaterally directed, and that there is not enough space in the media for an open debate in which different views and opinions are heard. In addition, each municipality and province now has the authorisation to add its own measures, whether well-founded or not.
Moreover, the strict repressive policy on corona strongly contrasts with the government’s minimal policy when it comes to disease prevention, strengthening our own immune system through a healthy lifestyle, optimal care with attention for the individual and investment in care personnel.2
The concept of health
In 1948, the WHO defined health as follows: ‘Health is a state of complete physical, mental and social well-being and not merely the absence of disease or other physical impairment’.3
Health, therefore, is a broad concept that goes beyond the physical and also relates to the emotional and social well-being of the individual. Belgium also has a duty, from the point of view of subscribing to fundamental human rights, to include these human rights in its decision-making when it comes to measures taken in the context of public health. 4
The current global measures taken to combat SARS-CoV-2 violate to a large extent this view of health and human rights. Measures include compulsory wearing of a mask (also in open air and during sporting activities, and in some municipalities even when there are no other people in the vicinity), physical distancing, social isolation, compulsory quarantine for some groups and hygiene measures.
The predicted pandemic with millions of deaths
At the beginning of the pandemic, the measures were understandable and widely supported, even if there were differences in implementation in the countries around us. The WHO originally predicted a pandemic that would claim 3.4% victims, in other words millions of deaths, and a highly contagious virus for which no treatment or vaccine was available. This would put unprecedented pressure on the intensive care units (ICUs) of our hospitals.
This led to a global alarm situation, never seen in the history of mankind: “flatten the curve” was represented by a lockdown that shut down the entire society and economy and quarantined healthy people. Social distancing became the new normal in anticipation of a rescue vaccine.
The facts about covid-19
Gradually, the alarm bell was sounded from many sources: the objective facts showed a completely different reality. 5 6
The course of covid-19 followed the course of a normal wave of infection similar to a flu season. As every year, we see a mix of flu viruses following the curve: first the rhinoviruses, then the influenza A and B viruses, followed by the coronaviruses. There is nothing different from what we normally see.
The use of the non-specific PCR test, which produces many false positives, showed an exponential picture. This test was rushed through with an emergency procedure and was never seriously self-tested. The creator expressly warned that this test was intended for research and not for diagnostics.7
The PCR test works with cycles of amplification of genetic material – a piece of genome is amplified each time. Any contamination (e.g. other viruses, debris from old virus genomes) can possibly result in false positives.8
Brielle Sateen 100% Mo... Buy New $14.99 (as of 05:50 UTC - Details) The test does not measure how many viruses are present in the sample. A real viral infection means a massive presence of viruses, the so-called virus load. If someone tests positive, this does not mean that that person is actually clinically infected, is ill or is going to become ill. Koch’s postulate was not fulfilled (“The pure agent found in a patient with complaints can provoke the same complaints in a healthy person”).
Since a positive PCR test does not automatically indicate active infection or infectivity, this does not justify the social measures taken, which are based solely on these tests. 9 10
Lockdown.
If we compare the waves of infection in countries with strict lockdown policies to countries that did not impose lockdowns (Sweden, Iceland …), we see similar curves. So there is no link between the imposed lockdown and the course of the infection. Lockdown has not led to a lower mortality rate.
If we look at the date of application of the imposed lockdowns we see that the lockdowns were set after the peak was already over and the number of cases decreasing. The drop was therefore not the result of the taken measures. 11
As every year, it seems that climatic conditions (weather, temperature and humidity) and growing immunity are more likely to reduce the wave of infection.
Our immune system
For thousands of years, the human body has been exposed daily to moisture and droplets containing infectious microorganisms (viruses, bacteria and fungi).
Pure Beech 3-Piece Bat... Buy New $14.99 (as of 05:50 UTC - Details) The penetration of these microorganisms is prevented by an advanced defence mechanism – the immune system. A strong immune system relies on normal daily exposure to these microbial influences. Overly hygienic measures have a detrimental effect on our immunity. 12 13 Only people with a weak or faulty immune system should be protected by extensive hygiene or social distancing.
Influenza will re-emerge in the autumn (in combination with covid-19) and a possible decrease in natural resilience may lead to further casualties.
Our immune system consists of two parts: a congenital, non-specific immune system and an adaptive immune system.
The non-specific immune system forms a first barrier: skin, saliva, gastric juice, intestinal mucus, vibratory hair cells, commensal flora, … and prevents the attachment of micro-organisms to tissue.
If they do attach, macrophages can cause the microorganisms to be encapsulated and destroyed.
The adaptive immune system consists of mucosal immunity (IgA antibodies, mainly produced by cells in the intestines and lung epithelium), cellular immunity (T-cell activation), which can be generated in contact with foreign substances or microorganisms, and humoral immunity (IgM and IgG antibodies produced by the B cells).
Recent research shows that both systems are highly entangled.
It appears that most people already have a congenital or general immunity to e.g. influenza and other viruses. This is confirmed by the findings on the cruise ship Diamond Princess, which was quarantined because of a few passengers who died of Covid-19. Most of the passengers were elderly and were in an ideal situation of transmission on the ship. However, 75% did not appear to be infected. So even in this high-risk group, the majority are resistant to the virus. SUPERIOR 300 Thread Co... Buy New $63.71 (as of 05:50 UTC - Details)
A study in the journal Cell shows that most people neutralise the coronavirus by mucosal (IgA) and cellular immunity (T-cells), while experiencing few or no symptoms 14.
Researchers found up to 60% SARS-Cov-2 reactivity with CD4+T cells in a non-infected population, suggesting cross-reactivity with other cold (corona) viruses.15
Most people therefore already have a congenital or cross-immunity because they were already in contact with variants of the same virus.
The antibody formation (IgM and IgG) by B-cells only occupies a relatively small part of our immune system. This may explain why, with an antibody percentage of 5-10%, there may be a group immunity anyway. The efficacy of vaccines is assessed precisely on the basis of whether or not we have these antibodies. This is a misrepresentation.
Most people who test positive (PCR) have no complaints. Their immune system is strong enough. Strengthening natural immunity is a much more logical approach. Prevention is an important, insufficiently highlighted pillar: healthy, full-fledged nutrition, exercise in fresh air, without a mask, stress reduction and nourishing emotional and social contacts.
Consequences of social isolation on physical and mental health
Social isolation and economic damage led to an increase in depression, anxiety, suicides, intra-family violence and child abuse.16
Studies have shown that the more social and emotional commitments people have, the more resistant they are to viruses. It is much more likely that isolation and quarantine have fatal consequences. 17
The isolation measures have also led to physical inactivity in many older people due to their being forced to stay indoors. However, sufficient exercise has a positive effect on cognitive functioning, reducing depressive complaints and anxiety and improving physical health, energy levels, well-being and, in general, quality of life.18
Fear, persistent stress and loneliness induced by social distancing have a proven negative influence on psychological and general health. 19
A highly contagious virus with millions of deaths without any treatment?
Mortality turned out to be many times lower than expected and close to that of a normal seasonal flu (0.2%). 20
The number of registered corona deaths therefore still seems to be overestimated.
There is a difference between death by corona and death with corona. Humans are often carriers of multiple viruses and potentially pathogenic bacteria at the same time. Taking into account the fact that most people who developed serious symptoms suffered from additional pathology, one cannot simply conclude that the corona-infection was the cause of death. This was mostly not taken into account in the statistics.
The most vulnerable groups can be clearly identified. The vast majority of deceased patients were 80 years of age or older. The majority (70%) of the deceased, younger than 70 years, had an underlying disorder, such as cardiovascular suffering, diabetes mellitus, chronic lung disease or obesity. The vast majority of infected persons (>98%) did not or hardly became ill or recovered spontaneously.
Meanwhile, there is an affordable, safe and efficient therapy available for those who do show severe symptoms of disease in the form of HCQ (hydroxychloroquine), zinc and AZT (azithromycin). Rapidly applied this therapy leads to recovery and often prevents hospitalisation. Hardly anyone has to die now.
This effective therapy has been confirmed by the clinical experience of colleagues in the field with impressive results. This contrasts sharply with the theoretical criticism (insufficient substantiation by double-blind studies) which in some countries (e.g. the Netherlands) has even led to a ban on this therapy. A meta-analysis in The Lancet, which could not demonstrate an effect of HCQ, was withdrawn. The primary data sources used proved to be unreliable and 2 out of 3 authors were in conflict of interest. However, most of the guidelines based on this study remained unchanged … 48 49
We have serious questions about this state of affairs.
In the US, a group of doctors in the field, who see patients on a daily basis, united in “America’s Frontline Doctors” and gave a press conference which has been watched millions of times.21 51
French Prof Didier Raoult of the Institut d’Infectiologie de Marseille (IHU) also presented this promising combination therapy as early as April. Dutch GP Rob Elens, who cured many patients in his practice with HCQ and zinc, called on colleagues in a petition for freedom of therapy.22
The definitive evidence comes from the epidemiological follow-up in Switzerland: mortality rates compared with and without this therapy.23
From the distressing media images of ARDS (acute respiratory distress syndrome) where people were suffocating and given artificial respiration in agony, we now know that this was caused by an exaggerated immune response with intravascular coagulation in the pulmonary blood vessels. The administration of blood thinners and dexamethasone and the avoidance of artificial ventilation, which was found to cause additional damage to lung tissue, means that this dreaded complication, too, is virtually not fatal anymore. 47
It is therefore not a killer virus, but a well-treatable condition.
Propagation
Spreading occurs by drip infection (only for patients who cough or sneeze) and aerosols in closed, unventilated rooms. Contamination is therefore not possible in the open air. Contact tracing and epidemiological studies show that healthy people (or positively tested asymptomatic carriers) are virtually unable to transmit the virus. Healthy people therefore do not put each other at risk. 24 25
Transfer via objects (e.g. money, shopping or shopping trolleys) has not been scientifically proven.26 27 28
All this seriously calls into question the whole policy of social distancing and compulsory mouth masks for healthy people – there is no scientific basis for this.
Masks
Oral masks belong in contexts where contacts with proven at-risk groups or people with upper respiratory complaints take place, and in a medical context/hospital-retirement home setting. They reduce the risk of droplet infection by sneezing or coughing. Oral masks in healthy individuals are ineffective against the spread of viral infections. 29 30 31
Wearing a mask is not without side effects. 32 33 Oxygen deficiency (headache, nausea, fatigue, loss of concentration) occurs fairly quickly, an effect similar to altitude sickness. Every day we now see patients complaining of headaches, sinus problems, respiratory problems and hyperventilation due to wearing masks. In addition, the accumulated CO2 leads to a toxic acidification of the organism which affects our immunity. Some experts even warn of an increased transmission of the virus in case of inappropriate use of the mask.34
Our Labour Code (Codex 6) refers to a CO2 content (ventilation in workplaces) of 900 ppm, maximum 1200 ppm in special circumstances. After wearing a mask for one minute, this toxic limit is considerably exceeded to values that are three to four times higher than these maximum values. Anyone who wears a mask is therefore in an extreme poorly ventilated room. 35
Inappropriate use of masks without a comprehensive medical cardio-pulmonary test file is therefore not recommended by recognised safety specialists for workers.
Hospitals have a sterile environment in their operating rooms where staff wear masks and there is precise regulation of humidity / temperature with appropriately monitored oxygen flow to compensate for this, thus meeting strict safety standards. 36
A second corona wave?
A second wave is now being discussed in Belgium, with a further tightening of the measures as a result. However, closer examination of Sciensano’s figures (latest report of 3 September 2020)37 shows that, although there has been an increase in the number of infections since mid-July, there was no increase in hospital admissions or deaths at that time. It is therefore not a second wave of corona, but a so-called “case chemistry” due to an increased number of tests. 50
The number of hospital admissions or deaths showed a shortlasting minimal increase in recent weeks, but in interpreting it, we must take into account the recent heatwave. In addition, the vast majority of the victims are still in the population group >75 years.
This indicates that the proportion of the measures taken in relation to the working population and young people is disproportionate to the intended objectives.
The vast majority of the positively tested “infected” persons are in the age group of the active population, which does not develop any or merely limited symptoms, due to a well-functioning immune system.
So nothing has changed – the peak is over.
Strengthening a prevention policy
The corona measures form a striking contrast to the minimal policy pursued by the government until now, when it comes to well-founded measures with proven health benefits such as the sugar tax, the ban on (e-)cigarettes and making healthy food, exercise and social support networks financially attractive and widely accessible. It is a missed opportunity for a better prevention policy that could have brought about a change in mentality in all sections of the population with clear results in terms of public health. At present, only 3% of the health care budget goes to prevention. 2
The Hippocratic Oath
As a doctor, we took the Hippocratic Oath:
“I will above all care for my patients, promote their health and alleviate their suffering”.
“I will inform my patients correctly.”
“Even under pressure, I will not use my medical knowledge for practices that are against humanity.”
The current measures force us to act against this oath.
Other health professionals have a similar code.
The ‘primum non nocere’, which every doctor and health professional assumes, is also undermined by the current measures and by the prospect of the possible introduction of a generalised vaccine, which is not subject to extensive prior testing.
Vaccine
Survey studies on influenza vaccinations show that in 10 years we have only succeeded three times in developing a vaccine with an efficiency rate of more than 50%. Vaccinating our elderly appears to be inefficient. Over 75 years of age, the efficacy is almost non-existent.38
Due to the continuous natural mutation of viruses, as we also see every year in the case of the influenza virus, a vaccine is at most a temporary solution, which requires new vaccines each time afterwards. An untested vaccine, which is implemented by emergency procedure and for which the manufacturers have already obtained legal immunity from possible harm, raises serious questions. 39 40 We do not wish to use our patients as guinea pigs.
On a global scale, 700 000 cases of damage or death are expected as a result of the vaccine.41
If 95% of people experience Covid-19 virtually symptom-free, the risk of exposure to an untested vaccine is irresponsible.
The role of the media and the official communication plan
Over the past few months, newspaper, radio and TV makers seemed to stand almost uncritically behind the panel of experts and the government, there, where it is precisely the press that should be critical and prevent one-sided governmental communication. This has led to a public communication in our news media, that was more like propaganda than objective reporting.
In our opinion, it is the task of journalism to bring news as objectively and neutrally as possible, aimed at finding the truth and critically controlling power, with dissenting experts also being given a forum in which to express themselves.
This view is supported by the journalistic codes of ethics.42
The official story that a lockdown was necessary, that this was the only possible solution, and that everyone stood behind this lockdown, made it difficult for people with a different view, as well as experts, to express a different opinion.
Alternative opinions were ignored or ridiculed. We have not seen open debates in the media, where different views could be expressed.
We were also surprised by the many videos and articles by many scientific experts and authorities, which were and are still being removed from social media. We feel that this does not fit in with a free, democratic constitutional state, all the more so as it leads to tunnel vision. This policy also has a paralysing effect and feeds fear and concern in society. In this context, we reject the intention of censorship of dissidents in the European Union! 43
The way in which Covid-19 has been portrayed by politicians and the media has not done the situation any good either. War terms were popular and warlike language was not lacking. There has often been mention of a ‘war’ with an ‘invisible enemy’ who has to be ‘defeated’. The use in the media of phrases such as ‘care heroes in the front line’ and ‘corona victims’ has further fuelled fear, as has the idea that we are globally dealing with a ‘killer virus’.
The relentless bombardment with figures, that were unleashed on the population day after day, hour after hour, without interpreting those figures, without comparing them to flu deaths in other years, without comparing them to deaths from other causes, has induced a real psychosis of fear in the population. This is not information, this is manipulation.
We deplore the role of the WHO in this, which has called for the infodemic (i.e. all divergent opinions from the official discourse, including by experts with different views) to be silenced by an unprecedented media censorship.43 44
We urgently call on the media to take their responsibilities here!
We demand an open debate in which all experts are heard.
Emergency law versus Human Rights
The general principle of good governance calls for the proportionality of government decisions to be weighed up in the light of the Higher Legal Standards: any interference by government must comply with the fundamental rights as protected in the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR). Interference by public authorities is only permitted in crisis situations. In other words, discretionary decisions must be proportionate to an absolute necessity.
The measures currently taken concern interference in the exercise of, among other things, the right to respect of private and family life, freedom of thought, conscience and religion, freedom of expression and freedom of assembly and association, the right to education, etc., and must therefore comply with fundamental rights as protected by the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR).
For example, in accordance with Article 8(2) of the ECHR, interference with the right to private and family life is permissible only if the measures are necessary in the interests of national security, public safety, the economic well-being of the country, the protection of public order and the prevention of criminal offences, the protection of health or the protection of the rights and freedoms of others, the regulatory text on which the interference is based must be sufficiently clear, foreseeable and proportionate to the objectives pursued.45
The predicted pandemic of millions of deaths seemed to respond to these crisis conditions, leading to the establishment of an emergency government. Now that the objective facts show something completely different, the condition of inability to act otherwise (no time to evaluate thoroughly if there is an emergency) is no longer in place. Covid-19 is not a cold virus, but a well treatable condition with a mortality rate comparable to the seasonal flu. In other words, there is no longer an insurmountable obstacle to public health.
There is no state of emergency.
Immense damage caused by the current policies
An open discussion on corona measures means that, in addition to the years of life gained by corona patients, we must also take into account other factors affecting the health of the entire population. These include damage in the psychosocial domain (increase in depression, anxiety, suicides, intra-family violence and child abuse)16 and economic damage.
If we take this collateral damage into account, the current policy is out of all proportion, the proverbial use of a sledgehammer to crack a nut.
We find it shocking that the government is invoking health as a reason for the emergency law.
As doctors and health professionals, in the face of a virus which, in terms of its harmfulness, mortality and transmissibility, approaches the seasonal influenza, we can only reject these extremely disproportionate measures.
We therefore demand an immediate end to all measures.
We are questioning the legitimacy of the current advisory experts, who meet behind closed doors.
Following on from ACU 2020 46 https://acu2020.org/nederlandse-versie/ we call for an in-depth examination of the role of the WHO and the possible influence of conflicts of interest in this organisation. It was also at the heart of the fight against the “infodemic”, i.e. the systematic censorship of all dissenting opinions in the media. This is unacceptable for a democratic state governed by the rule of law.43
Distribution of this letter
We would like to make a public appeal to our professional associations and fellow carers to give their opinion on the current measures.
We draw attention to and call for an open discussion in which carers can and dare to speak out.
With this open letter, we send out the signal that progress on the same footing does more harm than good, and call on politicians to inform themselves independently and critically about the available evidence – including that from experts with different views, as long as it is based on sound science – when rolling out a policy, with the aim of promoting optimum health.
With concern, hope and in a personal capacity.


lewrockwell--2020-09-18--China Is Killing the Dollar

China Is Killing the Dollar

In the wake of the Fed ’ s promise of 23 March to print money without limit in order to rescue the covid-stricken US economy , China changed its policy of importing industrial materials to a more aggressive stance .
In examining the rationale behind this move , this article concludes that while there are sound geopolitical reasons behind it the monetary effect will be to drive down the dollar ’ s purchasing power , and that this is already happening .
More recently , a veiled threat has emerged that China could dump all her US Treasury and agency @ @ @ @ @ @ @ further .
This appears to be a cover for China to reduce her dollar exposure more aggressively .
The consequences are a primal threat to the Fed ’ s policy of escalating monetary policy while maintaining the dollar ’ s status in the foreign exchanges .
On 3 September , China ’ s state-owned Global Times , which acts as the government ’ s mouthpiece , ran a front-page article warning that Fullstar Vegetable Cho ... Best Price : $ 15.61 Buy New $ 16.97 ” China will gradually decrease its holdings of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ normal circumstances .
But of course , China might sell all of its US bonds in an extreme case , like a military conflict , ” Xi Junyang , a professor at the Shanghai University of Finance and Economics told the Global Times on Thursday ” [ i ] .
Do not be misled by the attribution to a seemingly independent Chinese professor : it would not have been the frontpage article unless it was sanctioned by the Chinese government .
While China has already taken the top off its US Treasury holdings @ @ @ @ @ @ @ what it amounts to ) that China is prepared to escalate the financial war against America is very serious .
The message should be clear : China is prepared to collapse the US Treasury market .
In the past , apologists for the US Government have said that China has no one to buy its entire holding .
The most recent suggestion is that China ’ s Treasury holdings will be put in trust for covid victims — a suggestion if enacted would undermine foreign trust in the dollar and could bring its @ @ @ @ @ @ @ [ ii ] For the moment these are peacetime musings .
At a time of financial war , if China put her entire holding on the market Treasury yields would be driven up dramatically , unless someone like the Fed steps in to buy the lot .
If that happened China would then have almost a trillion dollars to sell , driving the dollar down against whatever the Chinese buy .
And don ’ t think for a moment that if China was to dump its holding of US Treasuries other foreign holders @ @ @ @ @ @ @ would probably end the dollar ’ s role as the world ’ s reserve currency with serious consequences for the US and global economies .
There is another possibility : China intends to sell all her US Treasuries anyway and is making American monetary policy her cover for doing so .
It is this possibility we will now explore .
China ’ s commodity strategy : it ’ s also about the dollar Most commentators agree that China has a long-term objective of promoting the renminbi for trade settlement .
While China has @ @ @ @ @ @ @ also agree that the renminbi will not challenge the dollar ’ s status as the reserve currency in the foreseeable future .
Any changes in the relationship between the dollar and renminbi is therefore believed to be evolutionary rather than sudden .
Recent developments have dramatically altered this perspective .
China is now aggressively stockpiling commodities and other industrial materials , as well as food and other agricultural supplies .
Simon Hunt , a highly respected copper analyst and China-watcher put it as follows : ‘ ’ China ’ s leadership started preparing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ relations with America deteriorated to the point that America would try shutting down key sea lanes .
These plans included holding excess stocks of widgets and components within the supply chains which meant importing larger tonnages of raw materials , commodities , foods stuffs and other agricultural products .
It was also an opportunity to use up some of the dollars which they have been accumulating by running down their holdings of US government paper and their enlarged trade surpluses .
Air Fryer Perfection : ... Best Price : $ 19.25 Buy New @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , not only will they be importing enough copper to meet current consumption needs but in addition 600-800kt to meet the additional needs of their supply chains and a further 500kt for the governed owned stockpile .
The result of these purchases will leave the global copper market very tight especially in the next two years.
’ ’ [ iii ] Other than the spread of Covid-19 lockdowns outside China , there was no specific geopolitical development to trigger a change in policy towards commodities , though admittedly relationships with America are on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in state piracy on the high seas , fears that the US could blockade China ’ s imports would possibly be achieved by American action to prevent Western corporate commodity suppliers from supplying commodities — in the same manner as America controls with whom the global banking system transacts .
China has already agreed import targets for American soya and maize , only partially delivered , due one presumes , to waiting for this year ’ s harvest .
She has been buying soya from other cheaper sources , such as Brazil , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ China is holding back on American imports as part of a trade negotiation strategy .
It is the timing of China ’ s policy to enact more aggressive purchases that is interesting : it coincided with or swiftly followed the Fed ’ s monetary policy change in late-March embarking on an infinitely inflationary course .
Figure 1 points to this relevance .
The pecked line divides 2020 into two parts .
First , we experienced the intensifying deflationary sentiment leading to the Fed ’ s rate cut to zero on 16 March , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in the FOMC statement which followed on 23 March .
The second part is the inflationary period that commenced at that time as a consequence of those moves .
The S & P 500 index then reversed its earlier fall of 33 % and started its dramatic move into new high ground , and the dollar ’ s trade weighted index peaked , losing about 10 % since then .
Gold took the hint and rose 40 % , while commodities turned higher as well , gaining a more moderate 20 % so @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 125 to 72 currently , as the monetary qualities of silver resumed an importance .
The S & P GCSI commodity index was initially suppressed by the WTI futures contract delivery debacle in April , but crude oil ’ s recovery has resumed .
Both gold and commodities are clearly adjusting to a world of accelerating monetary inflation , where bad news on the economic front will accelerate it even more .
If China ’ s decision to increase the rate of importation for commodities and raw materials did occur at that time @ @ @ @ @ @ @ than solely based on geopolitical reasons , the decision was driven by China ’ s reading of prospects for the dollar .
When all commodity prices are rising , there can only be one answer , and that is the currency common to them all is losing purchasing power .
And from its timing that is what appears to be at least partially behind China ’ s decision to accelerate purchases of a wide range of industrial and agricultural materials .
Stainless Steel Mixing ... Best Price : $ 15.90 Buy New $ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ stockpiles before 23 March , China might have taken the more relaxed view of buying additional imported commodities as and when needed .
But the one stockpile she has in enormous quantities is of dollars , of which about forty per cent is invested in US Treasuries and agency debt .
A short trillion or so has been loaned to trading partners , predominantly in sub-Saharan Africa and South America , as well as partners in the land and sea silk roads .
The indebtedness to China of her commodity suppliers makes further @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , supporting the thesis of China dumping dollars .
Furthermore , we should add it is possible that China has hedged some of her dollar exposure anyway .
If so , against what is not known but important commodities such as copper would make sense .
That China owns and is owed massive amounts of dollars confirms her primary interest was in a stable dollar .
In March she will have found that position no longer tenable .
She has cleared the decks with the Global Times front-page article , which assumes America @ @ @ @ @ @ @ tensions , thereby ignoring China ’ s warning .
The likelihood that she has now abandoned a stable dollar policy has been missed by the mainstream commentary cited at the beginning of this article , yet the consequences for the dollar will be far-reaching .
China is only the first nation using dollars for its external purchases to take the view it should get out of dollars as money and into something tangible .
Others , initially perhaps other members of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation , seem bound to follow .
The switch @ @ @ @ @ @ @ indefinite monetary inflation commits the Fed to purchase US Treasuries without limit .
For this to be achieved will require the continued suppression of the cost of the government ’ s funding , which in turn will assume that the consequences for prices are strictly limited , and that existing holders of US Treasuries do not turn into net sellers in unmanageable quantities .
If the Fed is to succeed in its monetary objectives it will be required to absorb these sales as well , which could be on a scale to ultimately @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
According to the latest US Treasury TIC figures , out of a total foreign ownership of $ 7.09 trillion US Treasuries , China owns $ 1.073 trillion of which according to the Global Times $ 300bn will definitely be sold .
[ iv ] But then there is the other matter of $ 227bn in agency debt , and $ 189bn in equities , which added to the remaining $ 800bn Treasuries after China ’ s planned sales tells us that there is a further amount of $ 1.2 trillion of securities @ @ @ @ @ @ @ if China sells all of its US bonds in an extreme case , like a military conflict ” .
When an important holder begins to liquidate , others are sure to follow .
Until recently , the US Government ’ s funding has not presented a problem , because the trade deficit has not been translated into a balance of payments deficit .
Foreign exporters and their governments have held onto and even added to their dollars , which is how they have ended up with $ 20.534 trillion in securities , together @ @ @ @ @ @ @ as T-bills and commercial bills totalling a further $ 6.227 trillion .
[ v ] We know the relationship between trade and deficit nations ’ demand for recycled monetary capital , because the relationship between the deficits and net savings form an accounting identity , summed up by the following equation : The trade deficit is equal to the excess of private sector investment over savings , plus the excess of government spending over tax revenue .
In basic English , if expenditures in the domestic economy exceed the incomes produced in it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ by an excess of imports over exports .
This is further confirmed by Say ’ s law , which tells us we produce in order to consume .
If we decrease our savings and the government increases its spending , there will be less domestic production available relative to enhanced consumption .
The balance will be made up by imports , giving rise to a trade deficit .
The Best of America & rs ... Best Price : $ 16.15 Buy New $ 35.00 It follows that a decline in the currency can @ @ @ @ @ @ @ importers are prepared to increase their holdings , in this case of US dollars , instead of selling them .
So far , we have not adequately addressed the impact on monetary policy , and how it affects prices in the context of trade imbalances and capital flows .
We know from the relationship of the budget deficit with the trade deficit that other things being equal the rapid increase in the US budget deficit will lead to an equally dramatic increase in the trade deficit .
This is not something the US @ @ @ @ @ @ @ China would become even more of a whipping boy with regard to trade .
In terms of capital flows , China is disposing of dollars and buying commodities just at the moment the US ’ s budget and trade deficits are spiralling out of control .
At the same time , she is adjusting her economic policies away from reliance on export surpluses to enhancing living standards for its population by promoting infrastructure spending and domestic consumption .
By encouraging consumers to spend rather than save , the accounting identity discussed above tells @ @ @ @ @ @ @ will tend to diminish , and consequently exchange rate policies will move from suppressing the renminbi exchange rate to make exports artificially profitable .
We can see this effect in Figure 2 .
Given the time between a central government directive and its implementation , the turn in the yuan ’ s trend in May seems about right in the context of a change of commodity purchasing policies initiated by central government a month or two before .
In the case of the US , the accounting identity which explains how the twin @ @ @ @ @ @ @ absence of the balance of payments surplus which America has enjoyed heretofore we must consider new territory .
If foreign importers dump their dollars there are two broad outcomes .
Either the quantity of dollars in circulation contracts as the exchange stabilisation fund intervenes to support the exchange rate , thereby taking them out of circulation .
Or they are bought by domestic buyers , at the expense of the exchange rate but remaining in circulation .
It should now be apparent that attempts to maintain the exchange rate and accelerate monetary stimulation @ @ @ @ @ @ @ post-March policy , are bound to fail .
HOME HERO Stainless St ... Best Price : $ 52.24 Buy New $ 54.99 Whether America decides to increase tariffs or ban Chinese imports altogether is immaterial to the outcome .
The problem is rapidly becoming one of increasing quantities of inflationary money chasing a reducing quantity of American produced goods while imports are tariffed or blocked .
And domestic production is also hampered by coronavirus lockdowns and the desire of bankers to decrease lending risk to the non-financial sector .
Anything the US Government @ @ @ @ @ @ @ trade deficit without reducing the budget deficit is bound to lead to additional price inflation , or put another way , a reduction in the dollar ’ s purchasing power .
We don ’ t know for sure , but it is reasonable to assume the planners in Beijing will have worked at least some of this out for themselves .
If so , America ’ s exorbitant monetary privilege will no longer be at China ’ s expense .
It is increasingly difficult to see how a cliff-edge for the dollar can @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Part 1 of Triffin ’ s dilemma , whereby it is incumbent on the provider of a reserve currency to run deficits in order to ensure adequate currency is available for that role , is coming to an end .
Those who cite Triffin tend to ignore the stated outcome ; that Part 2 is the inevitable crisis that arises from Part 1 .
And with over 130 % of current US GDP represented by dollars and securities in foreign hands , Triffin ’ s cliff-edge beckons .
If China is to prosper @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ready to adapt its mercantile model accordingly .
The evidence is that it planned a long time ago for this eventuality .
Its Marxist roots from the time of Mao informed China ’ s economists and planners that capitalism would end inevitably with the destruction of western currencies .
Since those days , China ’ s economists have adapted their views towards the macroeconomic neo-Keynesianism of Western governments .
While this is a natural process , the extent to which their earlier Marxian philosophy has been changed is not clear .
And while @ @ @ @ @ @ @ theoretical understanding of money and credit , we can only assume Western currencies are still viewed as inferior to metallic money .
It was Deng Xiaoping who led China following Mao ’ s death until 1989 and authorised monetary policy .
And it was he who set China ’ s policy on gold and silver .
On 15 June 1983 the State Council passed regulations handing the state monopoly of the management of the nation ’ s gold and silver and all related activities , with the exception of mining , to the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ both metals by individuals and any other organisation remained unlawful until the establishment of the Shanghai Gold Exchange in 2002 , since when it is estimated on the basis of withdrawals from the SGE ’ s vaults that publicly owned gold has accumulated to over 15,000 tonnes .
Since then , China has moved gradually but surely to gain control over physical gold markets and to become the world ’ s largest miners , both in China and through the acquisition of foreign mines .
The Shanghai Gold Exchange dominates physical markets both @ @ @ @ @ @ @ gold exchanges .
Joining these dots leaves one dot concealed from us ; and that is the true extent of physical gold owned by the Chinese state .
We can assume that China started from a position of some gold ownership when the 1983 regulations were enacted .
The fact that precious metals other than gold and silver were excluded is in accordance with the Chinese view of gold and silver as monetary metals .
And the permission for the general population to buy gold and silver on the establishment of the Shanghai @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the nineteen years since 1983 the state had accumulated sufficient gold and silver for its anticipated needs .
In Deng ’ s time , foreign exchange activity at the Peoples ’ bank was frenetic , with inward capital flows as foreign corporations established manufacturing operations in China .
From the 1990s , while these flows continued , they were more than compensated by growing trade surpluses .
Taking into account these flows and the contemporary bear market in gold prices , it is possible ( though not provable ) that the state accumulated @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the actual amount , little or none of this is declared as monetary gold .
A strict policy of no gold exports has been enforced ever since — with the sole exception of limited quantities for the Hong Kong jewellery trade , which ends up being bought and reimported by day-trippers from the Mainland .
Even though state economists have increasingly used neo-Keynesian policies to artificially stimulate China ’ s economy , we should be in no doubt about China ’ s Plan B .
It is not for nothing that she has @ @ @ @ @ @ @ even run advertising campaigns through state media , following the Lehman crisis , urging her people to acquire it .
We can not yet say when , how or if China will introduce gold-backing to ensure the yuan survives intact the problems faced by the dollar .
But for now , with the new policy of a rising yuan illustrated in Figure 2 above , the impact on domestic costs for imported raw materials will be reduced and we can expect the yuan/dollar rate to continue to increase accordingly .
China ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ an extreme case , like a military conflict ” is an important development for the dollar .
It was a clear shot across America ’ s bows , and will have been seen in that context by the American administration .
We have yet to see a response .
A firm plank of American monetary policy has been to suppress the price effects of monetary inflation .
In the case of commodity prices , this has been achieved through the expansion of derivative substitutes acting as artificial supply .
For the moment , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ persuades the macroeconomic establishment that demand for industrial commodities and raw materials will ameliorate , leading to lower prices .
But this view does not take into account the changing purchasing power of the dollar .
At some point the threat to the dollar will be taken seriously .
But before then , the political imperative in the run up to the presidential election is likely to continue and even intensify pressure on China .
But China ’ s renewed determination to dump both dollar denominated bonds and dollars is a developing crisis @ @ @ @ @ @ @ monetary policy .
We can expect further threats to materialise from the Americans to China ’ s ownership of US Treasuries and agency bonds .
It is a situation that could threaten to escalate rapidly out of control before China has disposed of the bulk of her dollar-denominated bonds .
The certain victim will be the dollar .
And as the dollar sinks , China will be blamed and tensions are bound to escalate between China and her Asian partners on one side , and America and her security partners on the other @ @ @ @ @ @ @ was the turning point last March , when the Fed publicly stated its inflation credentials .
With nearly $ 3 trillion in its reserves , it is not surprising that China is acting to protect herself .
With so much dollar debt and dollars in foreign ownership , it is hard to see how a substantial fall in the dollar ’ s purchasing power can be avoided and the Fed ’ s funding of the budget deficit badly disrupted .
[ ii ] Tweeted by James Rickards ( @ JamesGRickards ) 16 September @ @ @ @ @ @ @ may be bigger than the elections , the riots , and the pandemic , but it will take a few years to play out .
The U.S. will convert China ’ s $ 1.2 trillion of Treasury notes to a trust fund for COVID-19 victims and for economic damages .
Bye-bye China reserves.
” The Best of Alasdair Macleod

In the wake of the Fed’s promise of 23 March to print money without limit in order to rescue the covid-stricken US economy, China changed its policy of importing industrial materials to a more aggressive stance. In examining the rationale behind this move, this article concludes that while there are sound geopolitical reasons behind it the monetary effect will be to drive down the dollar’s purchasing power, and that this is already happening. More recently, a veiled threat has emerged that China could dump all her US Treasury and agency bonds if the relationship with America deteriorates further. This appears to be a cover for China to reduce her dollar exposure more aggressively. The consequences are a primal threat to the Fed’s policy of escalating monetary policy while maintaining the dollar’s status in the foreign exchanges.
Introduction
On 3 September, China’s state-owned Global Times, which acts as the government’s mouthpiece, ran a front-page article warning that
Fullstar Vegetable Cho... Best Price: $15.61 Buy New $16.97 (as of 05:51 UTC - Details) ”China will gradually decrease its holdings of US debt to about $800billion under normal circumstances. But of course, China might sell all of its US bonds in an extreme case, like a military conflict,” Xi Junyang, a professor at the Shanghai University of Finance and Economics told the Global Times on Thursday”[i].
Do not be misled by the attribution to a seemingly independent Chinese professor: it would not have been the frontpage article unless it was sanctioned by the Chinese government. While China has already taken the top off its US Treasury holdings, the announcement (for that is what it amounts to) that China is prepared to escalate the financial war against America is very serious. The message should be clear: China is prepared to collapse the US Treasury market. In the past, apologists for the US Government have said that China has no one to buy its entire holding. The most recent suggestion is that China’s Treasury holdings will be put in trust for covid victims — a suggestion if enacted would undermine foreign trust in the dollar and could bring its reserve role to a swift conclusion.[ii] For the moment these are peacetime musings. At a time of financial war, if China put her entire holding on the market Treasury yields would be driven up dramatically, unless someone like the Fed steps in to buy the lot.
If that happened China would then have almost a trillion dollars to sell, driving the dollar down against whatever the Chinese buy. And don’t think for a moment that if China was to dump its holding of US Treasuries other foreign holders would stand idly by. This action would probably end the dollar’s role as the world’s reserve currency with serious consequences for the US and global economies.
There is another possibility: China intends to sell all her US Treasuries anyway and is making American monetary policy her cover for doing so. It is this possibility we will now explore.
China’s commodity strategy: it’s also about the dollar
Most commentators agree that China has a long-term objective of promoting the renminbi for trade settlement. While China has made progress in this objective, they also agree that the renminbi will not challenge the dollar’s status as the reserve currency in the foreseeable future. Any changes in the relationship between the dollar and renminbi is therefore believed to be evolutionary rather than sudden.
Recent developments have dramatically altered this perspective. China is now aggressively stockpiling commodities and other industrial materials, as well as food and other agricultural supplies. Simon Hunt, a highly respected copper analyst and China-watcher put it as follows:
‘’ China’s leadership started preparing further contingency plans in March/April in case relations with America deteriorated to the point that America would try shutting down key sea lanes. These plans included holding excess stocks of widgets and components within the supply chains which meant importing larger tonnages of raw materials, commodities, foods stuffs and other agricultural products. It was also an opportunity to use up some of the dollars which they have been accumulating by running down their holdings of US government paper and their enlarged trade surpluses. Air Fryer Perfection: ... Best Price: $19.25 Buy New $16.19 (as of 05:51 UTC - Details)
Taking copper as an example, not only will they be importing enough copper to meet current consumption needs but in addition 600-800kt to meet the additional needs of their supply chains and a further 500kt for the governed owned stockpile. The result of these purchases will leave the global copper market very tight especially in the next two years.’’[iii]
Other than the spread of Covid-19 lockdowns outside China, there was no specific geopolitical development to trigger a change in policy towards commodities, though admittedly relationships with America are on a deteriorating path. Rather than indulging in state piracy on the high seas, fears that the US could blockade China’s imports would possibly be achieved by American action to prevent Western corporate commodity suppliers from supplying commodities — in the same manner as America controls with whom the global banking system transacts.
China has already agreed import targets for American soya and maize, only partially delivered, due one presumes, to waiting for this year’s harvest. She has been buying soya from other cheaper sources, such as Brazil, but it is too early to say China is holding back on American imports as part of a trade negotiation strategy. It is the timing of China’s policy to enact more aggressive purchases that is interesting: it coincided with or swiftly followed the Fed’s monetary policy change in late-March embarking on an infinitely inflationary course. Figure 1 points to this relevance.
The pecked line divides 2020 into two parts. First, we experienced the intensifying deflationary sentiment leading to the Fed’s rate cut to zero on 16 March, and then its promise of unlimited inflation in the FOMC statement which followed on 23 March. The second part is the inflationary period that commenced at that time as a consequence of those moves. The S&P 500 index then reversed its earlier fall of 33% and started its dramatic move into new high ground, and the dollar’s trade weighted index peaked, losing about 10% since then. Gold took the hint and rose 40%, while commodities turned higher as well, gaining a more moderate 20% so far. The gold/silver ratio collapsed from 125 to 72 currently, as the monetary qualities of silver resumed an importance. The S&P GCSI commodity index was initially suppressed by the WTI futures contract delivery debacle in April, but crude oil’s recovery has resumed. Both gold and commodities are clearly adjusting to a world of accelerating monetary inflation, where bad news on the economic front will accelerate it even more.
If China’s decision to increase the rate of importation for commodities and raw materials did occur at that time, it is very likely that rather than solely based on geopolitical reasons, the decision was driven by China’s reading of prospects for the dollar. When all commodity prices are rising, there can only be one answer, and that is the currency common to them all is losing purchasing power. And from its timing that is what appears to be at least partially behind China’s decision to accelerate purchases of a wide range of industrial and agricultural materials. Stainless Steel Mixing... Best Price: $15.90 Buy New $24.99 (as of 05:51 UTC - Details)
With a reasonable level of commodity stockpiles before 23 March, China might have taken the more relaxed view of buying additional imported commodities as and when needed. But the one stockpile she has in enormous quantities is of dollars, of which about forty per cent is invested in US Treasuries and agency debt. A short trillion or so has been loaned to trading partners, predominantly in sub-Saharan Africa and South America, as well as partners in the land and sea silk roads. The indebtedness to China of her commodity suppliers makes further protection from American interference more difficult perhaps, supporting the thesis of China dumping dollars. Furthermore, we should add it is possible that China has hedged some of her dollar exposure anyway. If so, against what is not known but important commodities such as copper would make sense.
That China owns and is owed massive amounts of dollars confirms her primary interest was in a stable dollar. In March she will have found that position no longer tenable. She has cleared the decks with the Global Times front-page article, which assumes America will continue to escalate trade and financial tensions, thereby ignoring China’s warning.
The likelihood that she has now abandoned a stable dollar policy has been missed by the mainstream commentary cited at the beginning of this article, yet the consequences for the dollar will be far-reaching. China is only the first nation using dollars for its external purchases to take the view it should get out of dollars as money and into something tangible. Others, initially perhaps other members of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, seem bound to follow.
The monetary consequences for America
The switch from a deflationary outlook to one of indefinite monetary inflation commits the Fed to purchase US Treasuries without limit. For this to be achieved will require the continued suppression of the cost of the government’s funding, which in turn will assume that the consequences for prices are strictly limited, and that existing holders of US Treasuries do not turn into net sellers in unmanageable quantities. If the Fed is to succeed in its monetary objectives it will be required to absorb these sales as well, which could be on a scale to ultimately defeat the Fed’s funding efforts.
According to the latest US Treasury TIC figures, out of a total foreign ownership of $7.09 trillion US Treasuries, China owns $1.073 trillion of which according to the Global Times $300bn will definitely be sold.[iv] But then there is the other matter of $227bn in agency debt, and $189bn in equities, which added to the remaining $800bn Treasuries after China’s planned sales tells us that there is a further amount of $1.2 trillion of securities that will be on the market “if China sells all of its US bonds in an extreme case, like a military conflict”. When an important holder begins to liquidate, others are sure to follow.
Until recently, the US Government’s funding has not presented a problem, because the trade deficit has not been translated into a balance of payments deficit. Foreign exporters and their governments have held onto and even added to their dollars, which is how they have ended up with $20.534 trillion in securities, together with additional cash at end-June as well as T-bills and commercial bills totalling a further $6.227 trillion.[v]
We know the relationship between trade and deficit nations’ demand for recycled monetary capital, because the relationship between the deficits and net savings form an accounting identity, summed up by the following equation:
(Imports – Exports) ≡ (Investment – Savings) + (Government Spending – Taxes)
The trade deficit is equal to the excess of private sector investment over savings, plus the excess of government spending over tax revenue. In basic English, if expenditures in the domestic economy exceed the incomes produced in it, the excess expenditures will be met by an excess of imports over exports. This is further confirmed by Say’s law, which tells us we produce in order to consume. If we decrease our savings and the government increases its spending, there will be less domestic production available relative to enhanced consumption. The balance will be made up by imports, giving rise to a trade deficit. The Best of America&rs... Best Price: $16.15 Buy New $35.00 (as of 05:51 UTC - Details)
It follows that a decline in the currency can only be deferred for as long as importers are prepared to increase their holdings, in this case of US dollars, instead of selling them.
So far, we have not adequately addressed the impact on monetary policy, and how it affects prices in the context of trade imbalances and capital flows. We know from the relationship of the budget deficit with the trade deficit that other things being equal the rapid increase in the US budget deficit will lead to an equally dramatic increase in the trade deficit. This is not something the US Government is prepared to tolerate, and China would become even more of a whipping boy with regard to trade.
In terms of capital flows, China is disposing of dollars and buying commodities just at the moment the US’s budget and trade deficits are spiralling out of control. At the same time, she is adjusting her economic policies away from reliance on export surpluses to enhancing living standards for its population by promoting infrastructure spending and domestic consumption. By encouraging consumers to spend rather than save, the accounting identity discussed above tells us that China’s trade surpluses will tend to diminish, and consequently exchange rate policies will move from suppressing the renminbi exchange rate to make exports artificially profitable.
We can see this effect in Figure 2. Given the time between a central government directive and its implementation, the turn in the yuan’s trend in May seems about right in the context of a change of commodity purchasing policies initiated by central government a month or two before.
In the case of the US, the accounting identity which explains how the twin deficits arise informs us that in the absence of the balance of payments surplus which America has enjoyed heretofore we must consider new territory. If foreign importers dump their dollars there are two broad outcomes. Either the quantity of dollars in circulation contracts as the exchange stabilisation fund intervenes to support the exchange rate, thereby taking them out of circulation. Or they are bought by domestic buyers, at the expense of the exchange rate but remaining in circulation. It should now be apparent that attempts to maintain the exchange rate and accelerate monetary stimulation, which is the Fed’s post-March policy, are bound to fail. HOME HERO Stainless St... Best Price: $52.24 Buy New $54.99 (as of 05:51 UTC - Details)
Whether America decides to increase tariffs or ban Chinese imports altogether is immaterial to the outcome. The problem is rapidly becoming one of increasing quantities of inflationary money chasing a reducing quantity of American produced goods while imports are tariffed or blocked. And domestic production is also hampered by coronavirus lockdowns and the desire of bankers to decrease lending risk to the non-financial sector.
Anything the US Government does in an attempt to reduce the trade deficit without reducing the budget deficit is bound to lead to additional price inflation, or put another way, a reduction in the dollar’s purchasing power. We don’t know for sure, but it is reasonable to assume the planners in Beijing will have worked at least some of this out for themselves. If so, America’s exorbitant monetary privilege will no longer be at China’s expense.
It is increasingly difficult to see how a cliff-edge for the dollar can be avoided. Decades of benefiting from Part 1 of Triffin’s dilemma, whereby it is incumbent on the provider of a reserve currency to run deficits in order to ensure adequate currency is available for that role, is coming to an end. Those who cite Triffin tend to ignore the stated outcome; that Part 2 is the inevitable crisis that arises from Part 1. And with over 130% of current US GDP represented by dollars and securities in foreign hands, Triffin’s cliff-edge beckons.
China’s forward planning
If China is to prosper in a post-dollar world it must be ready to adapt its mercantile model accordingly. The evidence is that it planned a long time ago for this eventuality. Its Marxist roots from the time of Mao informed China’s economists and planners that capitalism would end inevitably with the destruction of western currencies.
Since those days, China’s economists have adapted their views towards the macroeconomic neo-Keynesianism of Western governments. While this is a natural process, the extent to which their earlier Marxian philosophy has been changed is not clear. And while this leaves a potentially dangerous lack of theoretical understanding of money and credit, we can only assume Western currencies are still viewed as inferior to metallic money.
It was Deng Xiaoping who led China following Mao’s death until 1989 and authorised monetary policy. And it was he who set China’s policy on gold and silver. On 15 June 1983 the State Council passed regulations handing the state monopoly of the management of the nation’s gold and silver and all related activities, with the exception of mining, to the Peoples Bank of China. Ownership of both metals by individuals and any other organisation remained unlawful until the establishment of the Shanghai Gold Exchange in 2002, since when it is estimated on the basis of withdrawals from the SGE’s vaults that publicly owned gold has accumulated to over 15,000 tonnes.
Since then, China has moved gradually but surely to gain control over physical gold markets and to become the world’s largest miners, both in China and through the acquisition of foreign mines. The Shanghai Gold Exchange dominates physical markets both directly and through ties with other Asian gold exchanges. Joining these dots leaves one dot concealed from us; and that is the true extent of physical gold owned by the Chinese state.
We can assume that China started from a position of some gold ownership when the 1983 regulations were enacted. The fact that precious metals other than gold and silver were excluded is in accordance with the Chinese view of gold and silver as monetary metals. And the permission for the general population to buy gold and silver on the establishment of the Shanghai Gold Exchange in 2002 suggests that in the nineteen years since 1983 the state had accumulated sufficient gold and silver for its anticipated needs.
In Deng’s time, foreign exchange activity at the Peoples’ bank was frenetic, with inward capital flows as foreign corporations established manufacturing operations in China. From the 1990s, while these flows continued, they were more than compensated by growing trade surpluses. Taking into account these flows and the contemporary bear market in gold prices, it is possible (though not provable) that the state accumulated as much as 20,000 tonnes.
Whatever the actual amount, little or none of this is declared as monetary gold. A strict policy of no gold exports has been enforced ever since — with the sole exception of limited quantities for the Hong Kong jewellery trade, which ends up being bought and reimported by day-trippers from the Mainland.
Even though state economists have increasingly used neo-Keynesian policies to artificially stimulate China’s economy, we should be in no doubt about China’s Plan B. It is not for nothing that she has deliberately taken control of physical gold and even run advertising campaigns through state media, following the Lehman crisis, urging her people to acquire it.
We cannot yet say when, how or if China will introduce gold-backing to ensure the yuan survives intact the problems faced by the dollar. But for now, with the new policy of a rising yuan illustrated in Figure 2 above, the impact on domestic costs for imported raw materials will be reduced and we can expect the yuan/dollar rate to continue to increase accordingly.
The implications
China’s threat to dump US Treasuries “in an extreme case, like a military conflict” is an important development for the dollar. It was a clear shot across America’s bows, and will have been seen in that context by the American administration. We have yet to see a response.
A firm plank of American monetary policy has been to suppress the price effects of monetary inflation. In the case of commodity prices, this has been achieved through the expansion of derivative substitutes acting as artificial supply. For the moment, the deteriorating outlook for the global economy persuades the macroeconomic establishment that demand for industrial commodities and raw materials will ameliorate, leading to lower prices. But this view does not take into account the changing purchasing power of the dollar.
At some point the threat to the dollar will be taken seriously. But before then, the political imperative in the run up to the presidential election is likely to continue and even intensify pressure on China. But China’s renewed determination to dump both dollar denominated bonds and dollars is a developing crisis for America and the Fed’s monetary policy. We can expect further threats to materialise from the Americans to China’s ownership of US Treasuries and agency bonds. It is a situation that could threaten to escalate rapidly out of control before China has disposed of the bulk of her dollar-denominated bonds.
The certain victim will be the dollar. And as the dollar sinks, China will be blamed and tensions are bound to escalate between China and her Asian partners on one side, and America and her security partners on the other. The start of this additional crisis was the turning point last March, when the Fed publicly stated its inflation credentials. With nearly $3 trillion in its reserves, it is not surprising that China is acting to protect herself.
With so much dollar debt and dollars in foreign ownership, it is hard to see how a substantial fall in the dollar’s purchasing power can be avoided and the Fed’s funding of the budget deficit badly disrupted.
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[i] See https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1199833.shtml
[ii] Tweeted by James Rickards (@JamesGRickards) 16 September: “There is one story that may be bigger than the elections, the riots, and the pandemic, but it will take a few years to play out. The U.S. will convert China’s $1.2 trillion of Treasury notes to a trust fund for COVID-19 victims and for economic damages. Bye-bye China reserves.”
[iii] Private email correspondence with Simon Hunt of Simon Hunt Strategic Services
[iv] See https://ticdata.treasury.go/Publish/mfh.txt
[v] See https://ticdata.treasury.gov/Publish/bltype.txt
Reprinted with permission from Goldmoney.
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