dailykos--2020-10-29--Staying Rooted in the Storm

Staying Rooted in the Storm

All around me , the political storm rages .
With six days to go before the U. S. election , attacks sharpen , hostilities increase .
Political hostilities , possibly the worst ever , tempt me to hunker down , batten down the hatches , and wait it out .
I ’ m beginning to understand those Facebook friends who say they don ’ t want to see any more political discussion .
Yet part of me knows there is another way .
I think of the way that trees survive a storm .
As the wind blows their branches @ @ @ @ @ @ @ remain strong .
Their deep roots and flexible limbs allow them to weather the storm while standing in the midst of it .
While doing so , the trees provide shelter .
Their root systems prevent the ground from eroding .
In Healing the Heart of Democracy , Parker Palmer brilliantly delineates the political storm in which we find ourselves .
He demonstrates how racism , consumerism , scapegoating , and the mass media which fuels their fires erode the soil of democracy .
But Palmer doesn ’ t stop there .
He @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the trees , deeply rooted and grounded , flexible , standing strong in the midst of the storm .
He shows us how we can provide shelter , how , by developing strong roots , we can be grounded leaders who prevent the soil of our society from eroding .
He explores the outward and visible infrastructures of democracy and proposes ways to make better use of them .
For example , school teachers can be grounded leaders by helping students connect history lessons to their own lives .
History lessons about Nazi @ @ @ @ @ @ @ close to home ; any culture carries within it the seeds of oppression , violence , and totalitarianism .
Furthermore , in school , students can practice democracy as well as learn about it .
Or students can engage in service learning opportunities in their communities , integrating their classroom work with the world around them .
Palmer also explores how congregations and community groups can practice deep hospitality , welcoming the stranger , engaging more fully with those who are different .
He points out how often relationships in such groups become @ @ @ @ @ @ @ with one another enriches the soil of community .
Grounded leaders in schools , congregations , community groups , and ( I would add ) businesses can build the relationships and ways of being that form the foundation of a democracy .
I ask myself , “ In what ways am I like the deeply rooted tree in the storm , exhibiting grounded leadership , providing shelter and preventing erosion in the political storm ?
In what ways can I learn from the tree , incorporating more of Palmer ’ s practices into @ @ @ @ @ @ @ resist the urge to hide from the important tasks of shaping the world , instead remaining fully engaged and deeply rooted as political storms swirl around us .

All around me, the political storm rages. With six days to go before the U. S. election, attacks sharpen, hostilities increase. Political hostilities, possibly the worst ever, tempt me to hunker down, batten down the hatches, and wait it out. I’m beginning to understand those Facebook friends who say they don’t want to see any more political discussion.
Yet part of me knows there is another way.
I think of the way that trees survive a storm. As the wind blows their branches wildly, they bend. Yet they remain strong. Their deep roots and flexible limbs allow them to weather the storm while standing in the midst of it. While doing so, the trees provide shelter. Their root systems prevent the ground from eroding.
In Healing the Heart of Democracy, Parker Palmer brilliantly delineates the political storm in which we find ourselves. He demonstrates how racism, consumerism, scapegoating, and the mass media which fuels their fires erode the soil of democracy.
But Palmer doesn’t stop there. He shows us how we can be like the trees, deeply rooted and grounded, flexible, standing strong in the midst of the storm. He shows us how we can provide shelter, how, by developing strong roots, we can be grounded leaders who prevent the soil of our society from eroding. He explores the outward and visible infrastructures of democracy and proposes ways to make better use of them. For example, school teachers can be grounded leaders by helping students connect history lessons to their own lives. History lessons about Nazi Germany parallel discrimination against minorities today, close to home; any culture carries within it the seeds of oppression, violence, and totalitarianism.
Furthermore, in school, students can practice democracy as well as learn about it. Or students can engage in service learning opportunities in their communities, integrating their classroom work with the world around them.
Palmer also explores how congregations and community groups can practice deep hospitality, welcoming the stranger, engaging more fully with those who are different. He points out how often relationships in such groups become superficial and how learning to risk vulnerability with one another enriches the soil of community.
Grounded leaders in schools, congregations, community groups, and (I would add) businesses can build the relationships and ways of being that form the foundation of a democracy.
I ask myself, “In what ways am I like the deeply rooted tree in the storm, exhibiting grounded leadership, providing shelter and preventing erosion in the political storm? In what ways can I learn from the tree, incorporating more of Palmer’s practices into my leadership?”
May we all resist the urge to hide from the important tasks of shaping the world, instead remaining fully engaged and deeply rooted as political storms swirl around us.
(This is a revision of a similar article that appeared in the Executive Soul blog in October 2012, “Grounded Leadership: Staying Rooted in the Storm.”)


dailykos--2020-10-30--More Than Ever, Politics in 2020 Reminds Me of Summer-Camp Color War

For many years , when I was a high-school teacher , I spent my summers working at a rather posh summer sleepaway camp in upstate New York .
I loved it there , but at the end of every summer we ’ d have something called “ color war , ” which involved splitting the camp ( group-by-group ) into two teams , designated by colors ( and given cute themed nicknames ) that would compete in various athletic and non-athletic events over five days culminating in a thing called “ sing ” where each team would … well , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ or go-team-go-song and an “ alma mater ” or we ’ ll-miss-camp-when-it ’ s-over song .
My job at camp was to run one of the non-athletic programs , but I was an athlete in my younger days so when color war rolled around I ’ d be pressed into service as a football referee , baseball umpire , & c. Officiating youth sports is a thankless job as a general matter , but as the summers went by I started to notice patterns of behavior , patterns that keep springing to mind @ @ @ @ @ @ @ prevailing theme that emerged from this experience over a period of years was that the prevailing attitude , not only among the kids but the counselors who were assigned to coach these games , was that no one ever a game in color war ; either you won , or you were somehow cheated out of winning , by [ fill in one or more of ] the officiating ( i.e.
, me ) , the ‘ splits ’ ( i.e.
, how the teams were divided ) , the scheduling , the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ better goalie pads than the other ) , the field or weather conditions , or simply because the other team cheated or had some unfair advantage .
Those were , it seemed , the only two options .
No one ever left the field thinking they lost the game because they lost , because the other team beat them , because they made mistakes , or because they simply didn ’ t play well enough to win .
To put it another way , the first thing the kids and their counselors would @ @ @ @ @ @ @ loss , their first instinct , would be to look for some inequity , some unfairness , to explain the loss .
That they were simply beaten or made too many mistakes would be the last thing anyone thought of .
As an educator this always bothered me ; it was just like in school , where the last thing any student or parent would think of if the student ’ s grade was lower than they expected , was that the student ’ s work wasn ’ t very good .
But @ @ @ @ @ @ @ would always think of that famous quote by Kareem Abdul-Jabbar , three-time NCAA national champion and six-time NBA champion , “ You can ’ t win unless you learn how to lose.
” It occurred to me that these kids didn ’ t know how to lose , and hadn ’ t learned how to lose , because no one was teaching them how to lose .
Learning how to lose is not the same as learning to lose .
The New York Jets have learned to lose .
That ’ s not @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and that ’ s not what Abdul-Jabbar was talking about .
What he means is that you have to earn victory by learning from defeat , and the only way you can learn from defeat is to understand and accept your own responsibility for it .
If nothing ’ s ever your fault , you can never improve , correct mistakes , avoid them in the future , or achieve your goals .
Anyway , before I get off on an education-related rant here , the point is that I started observing the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ late ‘ 90s when I first became a teacher ; this is nothing new .
And it ’ s crept into our politics , to the point where we have actual elected officials and candidates for office — right up to and including the fricking President of the United States — openly declaring that the only way they can lose is if the other side cheats , if the process is unfair , if the referees are biased against them , or because of some other inequity or injustice .
One more color @ @ @ @ @ @ @ one that I was reminded of recently when Grand Nagus Drumpf whined to Lesley Stahl that “ you never ask Joe Biden tough questions.
” As I ’ ve written before ( and as the inimitable driftglass writes all the time ) , the great scourge of American politics over the last 30 years , and intensified over the last 10-15 or so , is Both Sides® and false equivalence .
One year I was reffing a football game and one particular player was behaving particularly badly , and after two or three @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the game .
When the game was over his team ’ s college-aged counselor/coach came up to me and indignantly demanded to know why I hadn ’ t ejected any players from the other team .
What had clearly not occurred to this person , and which I calmly explained to him in response , was that none of the other team ’ s players had been ejected because none of them had actually done anything to warrant an ejection .
This young man could not accept this Occam ’ s Razor explanation @ @ @ @ @ @ @ any whatabout examples , so he just insisted again that the ejection was unfair because only his team had been penalized in that fashion .
I specifically remember telling him , speaking as an experienced educator to an aspiring one , “ You have a teaching opportunity here .
You can either teach this kid that he was wrong , or you can teach him that he was wronged .
Much will depend on which one you choose.
” The more I think about color war , and experiences like this , the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Donald Trump and modern Republican/conservative politics in general .
I ’ ve been saying and writing for years that Republican politics are based on self-congratulation and resentment , and there ’ s a symmetry between that and the way our education system , including youth sports , has devolved away from objective learning toward subjective validation .
“ We can only lose if they cheat ” and demanding “ equal ” treatment that ’ s really just Both Siderism are , I think , a product of this .
But what ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ else that the Grand Nagus offers his voters : total absolution of any need , reason or obligation to think , to learn , to understand , to take anything into consideration but one ’ s own comfort and advantage , at any given moment or in any given situation .
In that world , all of life , and every interaction , is merely transactional ; driven by shallow , superficial , narrow , unenlightened self-interest , nothing more .
Feeling wronged is easy ; being wrong is hard .
The Republican @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and again after 2012 , to either learn from their electoral losses or feel wronged by them ; by Democrats , by “ the Liberal Media , ” & c. We all know which lesson they chose , and we all know the result .
Heck , they made the same choice in 1993 .
And we all know what lesson ( s ) they will draw from their next massive electoral loss , whether that occurs next week or years from now .
Will Republicans ever learn how to lose ?
Given @ @ @ @ @ @ @ losing in the last four years , locking in minority rule in the one -elected branch of government so that elections don ’ t have consequences anymore ( at least not for the fossil-fuel , chemical , pharmaceutical , insurance , financial , tobacco , firearms and defense industries , and whatever other polluters , profiteers and predators own the GOP and bought those judges ) , which they ’ ve been able to accomplish by “ winning ” control of the elected branches via the deliberately -democratic institutions and mechanisms that our @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ t have to .
And that really is a shame .

Texas Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick told a radio show on Thursday that:
“If the president loses Pennsylvania or North Carolina … or Florida, they'll lose it because [Democrats] stole it.”
For many years, when I was a high-school teacher, I spent my summers working at a rather posh summer sleepaway camp in upstate New York. I loved it there, but at the end of every summer we’d have something called “color war,” which I didn’t love so much. Color war involved splitting the camp (group-by-group) into two teams, designated by colors (and given cute themed nicknames) that would compete in various athletic and non-athletic events over five days culminating in a thing called “sing” where each team would … well, sing, typically a “march” or go-team-go song and an “alma mater” or we’re-sad-camp-is-over song. It was all quite intense, then it would end and everyone would come together, go home, and realize just how unimportant it was.
My job at camp was to run one of the non-athletic programs, but I was an athlete in my younger days so when color war rolled around I’d be pressed into service as a football referee, baseball umpire, &c. Officiating youth sports is a thankless job as a general matter, but as the summers went by I started to notice patterns of behavior, patterns that keep springing to mind in this particular election season.
The prevailing theme that emerged from this experience over a period of years was that the prevailing attitude, not only among the kids but the counselors who were assigned to coach these games, was that no one ever loses a game in color war; either you won, or you were somehow cheated out of winning, by [fill in one or more of] the officiating (i.e., me), the ‘splits’ (i.e., how the teams were divided), the scheduling, the equipment (e.g., one team had better goalie pads than the other), the field or weather conditions, or simply because the other team cheated or had some unfair advantage. Those were, it seemed, the only two options. No one ever left the field thinking they lost the game because they lost, because the other team beat them, because they made mistakes, or because they simply didn’t play well enough to win.
To put it another way, the first thing the kids and their counselors would think of in the aftermath of a loss in a color-war game, their first instinct, would be to look for some inequity, some unfairness, to explain the outcome. That they were simply beaten or outplayed would be the last thing anyone thought of. As an educator this always bothered me; it was just like in school, where the last thing any student or parent would think of if the student’s grade was lower than they expected, was that the student’s work wasn’t very good. But getting back to color war, I would always think of that famous quote by Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, three-time NCAA national champion and six-time NBA champion, “You can’t win unless you learn how to lose.” It occurred to me that these kids didn’t know how to lose, and hadn’t learned how to lose, because no one was teaching them how to lose.
Learning how to lose is not the same as learning to lose. The New York Jets have learned to lose. That’s not what I’m talking about, and that’s not what Abdul-Jabbar was talking about. What he means is that you have to earn victory by learning from defeat, and the only way you can learn from defeat is to understand and accept your own responsibility for it. That’s what “learning how to lose” means; looking inward rather than outward for the reasons why you lost. If nothing’s ever your fault, you can never improve, correct mistakes, avoid them in the future, or achieve your goals.
Anyway, before I get off on an education-related rant here, the point is that I started observing the behavior described above way back in the late ‘90s when I first became a teacher; this is nothing new. And it’s crept into our politics, to the point where we have actual elected officials and candidates for office — right up to and including the fricking President of the United States — openly declaring that the only way they can lose is if the other side cheats, if the process is unfair, if the referees are biased against them, or because of some other inequity or injustice.
One more color war anecdote often comes to mind, one that I was reminded of recently when Grand Nagus Drumpf whined to Lesley Stahl that “you never ask Joe Biden tough questions.” As I’ve written before (and as the inimitable driftglass writes all the time), the great scourge of American politics over the last 30 years, and intensified over the last 10-15 or so, is Both Sides® and false equivalence.
One year I was reffing a football game and one particular player was behaving particularly badly, and after two or three warnings I had to eject him from the game. When the game was over his team’s college-aged counselor/coach came up to me and indignantly demanded to know why I hadn’t ejected any players from the other team. What had clearly not occurred to this person, and which I calmly explained to him in response, was that none of the other team’s players had been ejected because none of them had actually done anything to warrant an ejection.
This young man could not accept this Occam’s Razor explanation but also couldn’t point to any whatabout examples, so he just insisted again that the ejection was unfair because only his team had been penalized in that fashion. I specifically remember telling him, speaking as an experienced educator to an aspiring one, “You have a teaching opportunity here. You can either teach this kid that he was wrong, or that he was wronged. Much will depend on which one you choose.”
The more I think about color war, and experiences like this, the more I understand the political appeal of Donald Trump and modern Republican/conservative politics in general. I’ve been saying and writing for years that Republican politics are based on self-congratulation and resentment, and there’s a symmetry between that and the way our education system, including youth sports, has devolved away from objective learning toward subjective validation. “We can only lose if they cheat” and demanding “equal” treatment that’s really just Both Siderism are, I think, a product of this.
But what’s also a product of this is something else that the Grand Nagus offers his voters: total absolution of any need, reason or obligation to think, to learn, to understand, to take anything into consideration but one’s own comfort, convenience and advantage, at any given moment or in any given situation. In that world, all of life, and every interaction, is merely transactional; driven by shallow, superficial, narrow, unenlightened self-interest, nothing more. Feeling wronged is easy; being wrong is hard.
The Republican Party had an opportunity after 2008, and again after 2012, to either learn from their electoral losses or feel wronged by them; by Democrats, by “the Liberal Media,” &c. We all know which lesson they chose, and we all know the result. Heck, they made the same choice in 1993. And we all know what lesson(s) they will draw from their next massive electoral loss, whether that occurs next week or years from now.


dailykos--2020-10-30--And the Young Will Save Us: Harvard-Kennedy School Youth Poll (#onlytheyoung. Thanks, Swifty)

There ’ s good news coming out of the 18-29 year old demographic in terms of this and future elections , according to a recently released Harvard Kennedy School Institute of Politics Youth Poll .
The bad news is that a lot of it is because they have had , have , and will have a lot of shitty things on their plate .
The good news — election-wise — is that most of those shitty things are generally thought to the fault of the right : • None School shootings , because the right hates gun control and mental @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , because the right likes money more than clear air ; and • None Systemic racism , which a whole lot more of this generation is coming to understand a whole lot earlier in their lives .
For the top two on that list , it ’ s 70 % + majorities of that age range that agree those are major issues and agree changes are needed , regardless of ideology/party .
That kind of uniformity will make an impact .
But to what degree ?
Well , let ’ s play with @ @ @ @ @ @ @ data , into what this might mean for this election , the news is good .
First of all , 63 % of the 18-29 demographic is expected to vote , which is a gi-frikkin-normous increase over 2016 when it was 46 % .
Much of that could be because Gen Z is coming of age , going from a tiny fraction of the total electorate to about 10 % .
That demographic 's population size is estimated at 54 million .
If the predicted increase in the number of voters is right @ @ @ @ @ @ @ voters , from over 24 million to 34 million .
The poll also shows those voters break 62 % -25 % Biden .
So that comes out to 21.1 million for Biden , and 8.5 million for Trump , a whopping 12.5 million vote advantage for Joe .
Last piece of the math puzzle .
Models show that Joe needs to have about 6 % advantage , nationwide , to secure a win in the Electoral College ( you know the deal — a lot of votes wasted in places like California and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ be for Joe , but the number of Electoral Votes stays the same ) .
If 160 million votes are cast , and for the sake of argument we make it a clean 53 % to 47 % for Joe , that ’ s about 85 million to 75 million , or Joe needs an overall 10 million vote advantage .
Now , doesn ’ t that 12.5 million vote advantage in the 18-29 age group feel good ?
It ’ s the margin needed plus some padding which will make up for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ do so well .
I know , I know , a lot depends on the state , and the weather , and a million other things that can go wrong , but for just a second , doesn ’ t this feel ok ?
I hate to say it like this , but the generation of kids who experienced too many school shootings is starting to vote .
They are motivated , they are relatively unified , and they want change .

There’s good news coming out of the 18-29 year old demographic in terms of this and future elections, according to a recently released Harvard Kennedy School Institute of Politics Youth Poll.
The bad news is that a lot of it is because they have had, have, and will have a lot of shitty things on their plate.
The good news — election-wise — is that most of those shitty things are generally thought to the fault of the right:
School shootings, because the right hates gun control and mental health care;
Climate change, because the right likes money more than clear air; and
Systemic racism, which a whole lot more of this generation is coming to understand a whole lot earlier in their lives.
For the top two on that list, it’s 70%+ majorities of that age range that agree those are major issues and agree changes are needed, regardless of ideology/party. That kind of uniformity will make an impact. But to what degree? Well, let’s play with some numbers.
Extrapolating from the poll data, into what this might mean for this election, the news is good.
First of all, 63% of the 18-29 demographic is expected to vote, which is a gi-frikkin-normous increase over 2016 when it was 46%. Much of that could be because Gen Z is coming of age, going from a tiny fraction of the total electorate to about 10%.
That demographic's population size is estimated at 54 million. If the predicted increase in the number of voters is right, that's basically 10 million more voters, from over 24 million to 34 million.
The poll also shows those voters break 62%-25% Biden. So that comes out to 21.1 million for Biden, and 8.5 million for Trump, a whopping 12.5 million vote advantage for Joe.
Last piece of the math puzzle. Models show that Joe needs to have about 6% advantage, nationwide, to secure a win in the Electoral College (you know the deal — a lot of votes wasted in places like California and Massachusetts, where the overwhelmingly majority will be for Joe, but the number of Electoral Votes stays the same). If 160 million votes are cast, and for the sake of argument we make it a clean 53% to 47% for Joe, that’s about 85 million to 75 million, or Joe needs an overall 10 million vote advantage.
Now, doesn’t that 12.5 million vote advantage in the 18-29 age group feel good? It’s the margin needed plus some padding which will make up for other demographics where Joe won’t do so well. I know, I know, a lot depends on the state, and the weather, and a million other things that can go wrong, but for just a second, doesn’t this feel ok?
I hate to say it like this, but the generation of kids who experienced too many school shootings is starting to vote. They are motivated, they are relatively unified, and they want change.
Here’s hoping.


dailykos--2020-10-30--Four Days Out: What If The Polls Are Just As Wrong As They Were In 2016?

As I post this we are only about 90 hours from the polls opening on election day .
No doubt you have heard Trump supporters deride the polls indicating a large Biden lead , to include in key states , as “ fake news ” with the attending triumphant cry that “ the polls were wrong 2016 and they are wrong now.
” I decided to assume that the polls today are every bit as wrong today as they were four days before the election in 2016 and evaluate how that would impact Tuesday ’ s election .
I took @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 2016 and which have sometimes shown Trump behind this year .
I compared that to polling on November 4 , 2016 ( that was four days before the November 8 election ) .
In both cases I used Nate Silver ’ s 538 polling data .
This data reflects a compilation or aggregation of numerous polls , a poll of polls .
For each of these nine key states I compared Trump ’ s predicted result by the polls on November 4 , 2016 vs. his actual result in the election .
With @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ) Trump outperformed the November , 2016 polling on election day .
That difference in Trump ’ s favor became “ 2016 Error ” in the chart below ( for Arizona the forecast on November 4 , 2016 equaled the result so the error was zero ) .
That error was then used to handicap the current polls for each of the nine states .
Trump was credited with full amount of the 2016 error in the current polls .
The results are summarized in the chart below .
By way of explanation @ @ @ @ @ @ @ polls the number reflects Trump ’ s relative position to his democratic opponent .
For example , Trump was ahead in the polls by 0.3 in Florida four days from the election in 2016 and is down in the polls by 2.0 to Biden in Florida today .
The 2016 polling error is then calculated as the difference between the 2016 election and actual election result .
In Florida that error was 0.9 .
The amount of that error is then subtracted from Biden ’ s current lead to show that even if @ @ @ @ @ @ @ much as it was in 2016 then Biden would still win by 1.1 % .
Second , the assumption that the polls are just as biased against Trump today as they were in 2016 is probably wrong .
Pollsters are in no mood to repeat their embarrassment from 2016 .
Accordingly , pollsters have worked hard to tweak the demographics of their polling to catch more voters who are likely to vote for Trump .
Many pollsters are more concerned that they may have overcompensated and are now inflating Trump ’ s standing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ model predicts that seven states won by Trump in 2016 will flip to Biden in 2020 .
Assuming Biden wins all the states Clinton won , and the seven states this model predicts , he will achieve a net gain of 117 electoral college votes over what Clinton received .
Biden would receive 350 electoral college votes , a landslide greatly exceeding Trump ’ s claimed record “ landslide ” of 306 electoral college votes .
Assuming Trump wins all the other states he won in 2016 , he finishes with 188 electoral @ @ @ @ @ @ @ college votes Biden would receive is 80 more than the 270 required to win .
Biden could lose any of the six states he is predicted to flip and still win big .
In fact , he could lose any two of those states and still win .
If Biden lost both the two biggest states of Florida and Pennsylvania he would still win easily , even if the polls today are just as wrong as they were in 2016 .
Let ’ s assume Biden loses all the states where the adjusted @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 2 % .
That credits Trump with Florida , Pennsylvania , North Carolina and Georgia .
Biden loses 80 electoral college votes but still rests exactly on the 270 he needs to win .
However , the closeness of this call shows that while the path to victory for Trump is difficult , it is possible .
[ Faithless electors have been excluded from these calculations ] .
It should be pointed out that this study also assumes both candidates win all the other states their party carried in 2016 .
This seems @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Trump .
Texas is surprisingly in play with Trump holding a current lead of only 1.3 % and a few polls actually calling it for Biden .
The Trump Campaign has made noise about flipping Nevada ( and its six electoral college votes ) which went to Clinton by less than 2 points in 2016 .
However , the polls show Biden ahead in Nevada by over 6 % .
I did a similar analysis on October 13th .
It is summarized in the chart below .
As a consequence Biden actually picked @ @ @ @ @ @ @ this four days out analysis that was credited to Trump in the October 13th analys

As I post this we are only about 90 hours from the polls opening on election day. No doubt you have heard Trump supporters deride the polls indicating a large Biden lead, to include in key states, as “fake news” with the attending triumphant cry that “the polls were wrong 2016 and they are wrong now.” I decided to assume that the polls today are every bit as wrong today as they were four days before the election in 2016 and evaluate how that would impact Tuesday’s election.
METHODOLOGY
I took nine key states that Trump won in 2016 and which have sometimes shown Trump behind this year. I compared that to polling on November 4, 2016 (that was four days before the November 8 election). In both cases I used Nate Silver’s 538 polling data. This data reflects a compilation or aggregation of numerous polls, a poll of polls.
For each of these nine key states I compared Trump’s predicted result by the polls on November 4, 2016 vs. his actual result in the election. With the exception of one state (Arizona) Trump outperformed the November, 2016 polling on election day. That difference in Trump’s favor became “2016 Error” in the chart below (for Arizona the forecast on November 4, 2016 equaled the result so the error was zero).
That error was then used to handicap the current polls for each of the nine states. Trump was credited with full amount of the 2016 error in the current polls.
RESULTS
The results are summarized in the chart below. By way of explanation, for each of the columns of polls the number reflects Trump’s relative position to his democratic opponent. For example, Trump was ahead in the polls by 0.3 in Florida four days from the election in 2016 and is down in the polls by 2.0 to Biden in Florida today. The 2016 polling error is then calculated as the difference between the 2016 election and actual election result. In Florida that error was 0.9. The amount of that error is then subtracted from Biden’s current lead to show that even if the Florida polling is off by as much as it was in 2016 then Biden would still win by 1.1%.
Two things should be emphasized. First, Trump won all of these states in 2016. Even assuming the polling error is just as bad today as it was in 2016 then Florida, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Georgia and Arizona all flip to Biden. Under this model Trump hangs on to hold Iowa (even though currently behind in polling there) and wins Ohio (where he was once behind but has moved slightly ahead in recent polling).
Second, the assumption that the polls are just as biased against Trump today as they were in 2016 is probably wrong. Pollsters are in no mood to repeat their embarrassment from 2016. Accordingly, pollsters have worked hard to tweak the demographics of their polling to catch more voters who are likely to vote for Trump. Many pollsters are more concerned that they may have overcompensated and are now inflating Trump’s standing in the polls.
ANALYSIS
As stated this model predicts that seven states won by Trump in 2016 will flip to Biden in 2020.
Assuming Biden wins all the states Clinton won, and the seven states this model predicts, he will achieve a net gain of 117 electoral college votes over what Clinton received. Biden would receive 350 electoral college votes, a landslide greatly exceeding Trump’s claimed record “landslide” of 306 electoral college votes.
Assuming Trump wins all the other states he won in 2016, he finishes with 188 electoral college votes.
The predicted 350 electoral college votes Biden would receive is 80 more than the 270 required to win. Biden could lose any of the six states he is predicted to flip and still win big. In fact, he could lose any two of those states and still win. If Biden lost both the two biggest states of Florida and Pennsylvania he would still win easily, even if the polls today are just as wrong as they were in 2016.
Let’s assume Biden loses all the states where the adjusted forecast has him winning by less than 2%. That credits Trump with Florida, Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Georgia. Biden loses 80 electoral college votes but still rests exactly on the 270 he needs to win. However, the closeness of this call shows that while the path to victory for Trump is difficult, it is possible. [Faithless electors have been excluded from these calculations].
It should be pointed out that this study also assumes both candidates win all the other states their party carried in 2016. This seems a safer assumption for Biden than for Trump. Texas is surprisingly in play with Trump holding a current lead of only 1.3% and a few polls actually calling it for Biden. The Trump Campaign has made noise about flipping Nevada (and its six electoral college votes) which went to Clinton by less than 2 points in 2016. However, the polls show Biden ahead in Nevada by over 6%.
COMPARISON TO PRIOR STUDY
I did a similar analysis on October 13th. It is summarized in the chart below.
There were two general trends between the studies. First, Biden’s lead eroded at bit, but only slightly. By four days out in 2016 Clinton was crashing the polls. Second, as a result of that 2016 Clinton poll crash the adjusted 2016 error was less in this four day out analysis than it was in the analysis for October 13th. The average polling error from the sampled states on October 13th was 3.38% whereas four days out from the election it was only 2.8%.
Simply put, compared to 2016 Biden enjoys a much bigger lead than Clinton did with only four days remaining before the election. That lead has remained largely stable, declining only slightly over the last several weeks. The pollsters still called it wrong four days out in 2016, but not by as much as they had in mid-October of that year.
As a consequence Biden actually picked up a state, Georgia, in this four days out analysis that was credited to Trump in the October 13th analys


dailykos--2020-10-31--So. Don. See below? We mean it.

So. Don. See below? We mean it.

No joke .
It ’ s serious .
The farmers in Wisconsin are saying it .
Subsides are nice .
Real open markets are better .
Having actual customers and contracts are better .
Being able to plan and be profitable is better .
Thoughts and prayers are for church and not the fields .
Get big or get out only works for massive corporate farms .
Funny how those guys in the co ops are doing ok .
Even some of the massive farms are on seriously hard times .
And labor for them is brown and suddenly in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ elsewhere .
Or tired of threats about ICE .
Probably both .
Funny how hard a time that local GOP candidates are having .
People are asking questions that they don ’ t have good enough answers for .
It ’ s finally struck home with certain people that COVID will kill you .
If it doesn ’ t kill you , you can pass it on to people , like , for instance Grandpa and Grandma and it does kill them .
And the people in the retirement community or nursing home @ @ @ @ @ @ @ And just why are the cases increasing anyway ?
Were you bullshitting us about this ?
Are masks really working and maybe we should all be wearing them ?
Because it ’ s starting to look like God is saying figure it out people .
I ’ ve got pressing issues else where and no I didn ’ t bring it forth to punish gays and made a mistake .
I don ’ t do those as I ’ m god .
See that Dude Fauci ?
He ’ s had the answers @ @ @ @ @ @ @ aught to listen to that guy instead of the grifting asshole at the podium .
No not the orange one , well him too .
Moving on .
The Foxxcon deal .
Now that is coming due and holy moly is it ever a bigger public fucking than advertised .
And there really isn ’ t any good answers for it is there ?
Thought not .
About that Gerrymandering thingy .
It ’ s looking really really really bad right about now .
About that constant hyper partisanship ?
Not looking real @ @ @ @ @ @ @ You ’ ve forgotten all the lessons Tail gunner Joe left on what not to do .
And like little kids caught with their hands in the cookie jar you ’ re literally looking everywhere for someone else to blame for your unhinged heinous fuckery rather than own it and work to fix it .
It takes time for the plan to work you said .
Well we ’ ve all seen how it “ works ” now for quite a while .
And came to the conclusion that it is so damned @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
And there is nothing left in the cookie jar to fix it with .
So this whole Koch Industries “ experiment ” in politics and government worked out pretty damned well for them .
Not so much for the rest of us .
It really is time for you to go .
And no we really don ’ t need you to help fix what you broke as you ’ ll only break it further .
And then make more excuses .
And take no responsibility .
Just like your orange painted @ @ @ @ @ @ @ start looking to see if any of you assholes have bank accounts in China ?
Or was it Russia ?
Better check both then .

No joke. It’s serious. The farmers in Wisconsin are saying it. Subsides are nice. Real open markets are better. Having actual customers and contracts are better. Being able to plan and be profitable is better. Thoughts and prayers are for church and not the fields. Get big or get out only works for massive corporate farms. Funny how those guys in the co ops are doing ok. Even some of the massive farms are on seriously hard times. And labor for them is brown and suddenly in short supply. Something about better pay elsewhere. Or tired of threats about ICE. Probably both.
Funny how hard a time that local GOP candidates are having. People are asking questions that they don’t have good enough answers for. It’s finally struck home with certain people that COVID will kill you. If it doesn’t kill you, you can pass it on to people, like, for instance Grandpa and Grandma and it does kill them. And the people in the retirement community or nursing home or care center where they live. And just why are the cases increasing anyway? Were you bullshitting us about this? Are masks really working and maybe we should all be wearing them?
Because it’s starting to look like God is saying figure it out people. I’ve got pressing issues else where and no I didn’t bring it forth to punish gays and made a mistake. I don’t do those as I’m god. See that Dude Fauci? He’s had the answers for a while now. Maybe you aught to listen to that guy instead of the grifting asshole at the podium. No not the orange one, well him too. Moving on.
The Foxxcon deal. Now that is coming due and holy moly is it ever a bigger public fucking than advertised. And there really isn’t any good answers for it is there? Thought not. About that Gerrymandering thingy. It’s looking really really really bad right about now. About that constant hyper partisanship? Not looking real good. Bad image to maintain. You’ve forgotten all the lessons Tail gunner Joe left on what not to do.
And like little kids caught with their hands in the cookie jar you’re literally looking everywhere for someone else to blame for your unhinged heinous fuckery rather than own it and work to fix it. It takes time for the plan to work you said. Well we’ve all seen how it “works” now for quite a while. And came to the conclusion that it is so damned broken you can’t fix it. And there is nothing left in the cookie jar to fix it with.
So this whole Koch Industries “experiment” in politics and government worked out pretty damned well for them. Not so much for the rest of us. It really is time for you to go. And no we really don’t need you to help fix what you broke as you’ll only break it further. And then make more excuses. And take no responsibility. Just like your orange painted pissant president. Say…...should we start looking to see if any of you assholes have bank accounts in China? Or was it Russia? Better check both then.


dailykos--2020-10-31--When it all gets too serious, "Newsbroke"

I know it comes from Al Jazeera , in this case AJ+ .
I know it is nearly completely funded by the Qatari government , but… I ’ ve been following Francesca Florentini and Matt Lieb for years from the very first days of Newsbroke in 2013 to today , and I ’ ve loved them the entire time .
Every time things get too heavy in politics for me , Newsbroke always seems to deflate the tension I ’ m feeling with a progressive point of view that always leaves me laughing .
This time around I wasn ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ thing for humans dealing with politics under Trump , Thunder Shirt being a pressure garment you put on your pets to help them feel less stressed during a thunderstorm , for me Newsbroke is the equivalent .
I turn them on and it ’ s like a pin popping my anxiety bubble .
Thank you Newsbroke .
You may not be perfect , but sometimes I need a break , and you are it .
www.youtube.com/ ...
There are a million things I could say about the channel , but I ’ ll @ @ @ @ @ @ @ I hope you all find it as fun as I do .
And I hope you all get the oohzaaaa I get from it during these trying times .

x x YouTube Video If Trump Wins, Should We Secede?
I know it comes from Al Jazeera, in this case AJ+. I know it is nearly completely funded by the Qatari government, but… I’ve been following Francesca Florentini and Matt Lieb for years from the very first days of Newsbroke in 2013 to today, and I’ve loved them the entire time.
Every time things get too heavy in politics for me, Newsbroke always seems to deflate the tension I’m feeling with a progressive point of view that always leaves me laughing. This time around I wasn’t able to find a Thunder Shirt thing for humans dealing with politics under Trump, Thunder Shirt being a pressure garment you put on your pets to help them feel less stressed during a thunderstorm, for me Newsbroke is the equivalent. I turn them on and it’s like a pin popping my anxiety bubble. Thank you Newsbroke. You may not be perfect, but sometimes I need a break, and you are it.
www.youtube.com/...
There are a million things I could say about the channel, but I’ll let the channel speak for itself. I hope you all find it as fun as I do. And I hope you all get the oohzaaaa I get from it during these trying times.


dailykos--2020-11-02--Federal Courts Give GOP Opening to Challenge Thousands of Absentee Ballots, by Steven Rosenfeld

Meanwhile , Democrats are pushing for record turnout to blunt the impact of likely post-Election Day litigation .
This article was produced by , a of the Independent Media Institute .
Two countervailing forces are competing to determine the outcome of the 2020 elections ’ highest-stakes contests before the close of voting on November 3 .
President Trump and his Republican allies are pursuing a full-court press where their success hinges less on winning popular vote majorities and more on disqualifying volumes of absentee ballots via lawsuits to be filed after Election Day—if preliminary results in a few key states @ @ @ @ @ @ @ their allies , meanwhile , have been pushing their party ’ s more highly motivated voter base to continue their turnout lead seen in early and absentee voting , so Republicans can not gain traction when they turn to the courts to disqualify late-arriving absentee ballots , or cite other technicalities to disqualify votes .
“ We are targeting 8.8 million students , faculty and staff in universities in Alabama , Arizona , Florida , Georgia , Mississippi , North Carolina , South Carolina and Texas .
We have state-specific ads for every @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Andrea Miller , executive director of People Demanding Action , which has been turning out voters in communities of color .
“ And then we are also advertising our election protection tool , ‘ See Something , Say Something ’ … We have done outreach to nearly 20 million people and the election isn ’ t over.
” More than 85 million people have already voted as of Friday , October 30 , according to the U.S .
Elections Project early voting tracking website .
So far , more than 55 million absentee @ @ @ @ @ @ @ officials , 30 million people have voted in person , and another 35.5 million absentee ballots have yet to be returned .
According to those voters ’ party registrations , Democrats and Republicans have split the in-person voting , but Democrats lead in absentee ballots—where sizable numbers of voters registering as independents have cast ballots .
Whether or not the apparent enthusiasm gap continues through Election Day—or shifts via what the Republicans hope will be a large in-person turnout on November 3—is an open question .
However , the Trump campaign and its @ @ @ @ @ @ @ victories to secure a winning margin among state Electoral College delegations .
Their litigation strategy arguably has been the Republican Party ’ s most overt voter suppression effort in years—building on Trump ’ s ongoing and baseless attacks on the legitimacy of absentee balloting .
The voting wars are legal fights over technicalities in processes that can end up disqualifying—or empowering—blocs of voters to tilt close-margin contests .
The 2020 election has seen more litigation over these technicalities , especially surrounding the use of mailed-out ( or absentee ) ballots , than any @ @ @ @ @ @ @ many early victories , especially in state and federal district courts , Republicans in recent days have won notable decisions—and legal arguments—in the Supreme Court and federal appeals court .
There ’ s a common thread running through these decisions that appears to give Republicans an opening to initiate post-Election Day litigation .
In rulings affecting Wisconsin , Pennsylvania , North Carolina and Minnesota , conservatives have highlighted a way to disqualify what may become thousands of absentee ballots that were properly mailed and postmarked ( by Election Day ) , but are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ mail delivery .
Various judges—including a likely Supreme Court majority among the high court ’ s conservatives without Chief Justice John Roberts—have said that only state legislatures have the authority to regulate elections with federal candidates .
That construction is based on the U.S. Constitution , whose opening articles delegate no power to state supreme courts , state constitutions , secretaries of state or statewide election boards to run elections .
These non-legislative actors took steps this year to issue regulations to assist voters and election officials in response to COVID-19 .
Thus @ @ @ @ @ @ @ said absentee ballots that were not received by November 3 would not be counted—because the state ’ s ( Republican majority ) legislature did not extend the deadline .
Justice Brett Kavanaugh also commented that election results should be known by election night , which mirrors Trump ’ s rhetoric but does not reflect the reality of states like Wisconsin where local clerks will only start processing 1.1 million ballots that morning .
In Pennsylvania and North Carolina , the Supreme Court said one week before Election Day that it was too late @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Tuesday .
( In Pennsylvania , it ’ s Friday , November 6 .
In North Carolina , it ’ s Thursday , November 12 . )
While much national press coverage said those two rulings were Democratic victories , those assessments glossed over statements , concurrences and dissents from four conservative justices that basically said that ballots arriving after Election Day could be disqualified if a legislature didn ’ t extend the return deadline .
Newly seated Justice Amy Coney Barrett didn ’ t participate in those cases .
In response , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Supreme Court that the secretary of state was directing all county election officials to “ segregate ” all absentee ballots arriving after November 3 and through the November 6 deadline .
Election law experts said that Pennsylvania ’ s move would insulate absentee ballots arriving earlier from challenges—because late-arriving ballots would not be mixed in with those earlier batches of ballots when counted .
North Carolina ’ s state election board is not following Pennsylvania ’ s lead—as a precautionary measure .
It issued a statement urging all voters to return absentee ballots @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the final deadline was on November 12 .
A day after the Supreme Court ruling in the Pennsylvania and North Carolina suits , a federal appeals court in Minnesota threw out its week-long absentee ballot-return deadline extension—issued this summer by the secretary of state as part of a legal settlement with Republicans .
“ The Secretary and his respective agents… are ordered to identify , segregate , and otherwise maintain and preserve all absentee ballots , ” the Eighth Circuit Court ’ s decision said , “ in a manner that would allow @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and vice president ] … to be removed from vote totals in the event a final order is entered by a court.
” Taken together , the highest rungs of the federal courts have given the Republicans an opening to seek to disqualify any late-arriving ballots in Pennsylvania , North Carolina and Minnesota .
( All other states with extended absentee ballot-return deadlines resulted from legislation . )
How many votes could be implicated should post-Election Day legal challenges arise ?
Former Oregon Secretary of State Phil Keisling , a Democrat who oversaw @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that 90 percent of voters who apply to vote with absentee ballots return those ballots .
According to the U.S .
Elections Project , which gets its data from state election officials , as of Friday , October 30 , hundreds of thousands of absentee ballots are still in play .
• In North Carolina , 883,000 ballots have been returned , out of 1.45 million requested ballots , a return rate of 61 percent .
Nearly 600,000 absentee ballots have not yet been received .
• In Pennsylvania , 2.1 million ballots @ @ @ @ @ @ @ million requested ballots , a return rate of 68 percent .
Nearly 985,000 absentee ballots have not yet been received .
• In Minnesota , nearly 1.6 million people voted early and returned their absentee ballots .
The state doesn ’ t further break down those figures .
Statewide , 1.97 million absentee ballots were requested .
While there may yet be more federal litigation before Election Day , the big picture is that the Republicans appear to be placing little stock in popular vote victories and are on track to try to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ absentee ballots—and as the opening move in post-Election Day litigation .
Democrats , on the other hand , are continuing to push voters to return their absentee ballots in person , vote early or vote on Election Day .
Under any scenario , it ’ s not likely a presidential election winner would be known until later in the week—at the earliest .
The U.S. Senate ’ s majority will take longer , as some states such as Georgia are likely to see runoffs .
And control of state legislatures may take longer @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to a few contests where recounts are triggered .
Steven Rosenfeld is the editor and chief correspondent of , a of the Independent Media Institute .
He has reported for National Public Radio , Marketplace , and Christian Science Monitor Radio , as well as a wide range of progressive publications including Salon , AlterNet , the American Prospect , and many others .

rss@dailykos.com (Independent Media Institute)

Meanwhile, Democrats are pushing for record turnout to blunt the impact of likely post-Election Day litigation.
By Steven Rosenfeld
This article was produced by Voting Booth , a project of the Independent Media Institute.
Two countervailing forces are competing to determine the outcome of the 2020 elections’ highest-stakes contests before the close of voting on November 3.
President Trump and his Republican allies are pursuing a full-court press where their success hinges less on winning popular vote majorities and more on disqualifying volumes of absentee ballots via lawsuits to be filed after Election Day—if preliminary results in a few key states are close. The Democratic Party and their allies, meanwhile, have been pushing their party’s more highly motivated voter base to continue their turnout lead seen in early and absentee voting, so Republicans cannot gain traction when they turn to the courts to disqualify late-arriving absentee ballots, or cite other technicalities to disqualify votes.
“We are targeting 8.8 million students, faculty and staff in universities in Alabama, Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Mississippi, North Carolina, South Carolina and Texas. We have state-specific ads for every one of our campaigns,” said Andrea Miller, executive director of People Demanding Action, which has been turning out voters in communities of color. “And then we are also advertising our election protection tool, ‘See Something, Say Something’… We have done outreach to nearly 20 million people and the election isn’t over.”
More than 85 million people have already voted as of Friday, October 30, according to the U.S. Elections Project early voting tracking website. So far, more than 55 million absentee ballots have been received by local election officials, 30 million people have voted in person, and another 35.5 million absentee ballots have yet to be returned. According to those voters’ party registrations, Democrats and Republicans have split the in-person voting, but Democrats lead in absentee ballots—where sizable numbers of voters registering as independents have cast ballots.
Whether or not the apparent enthusiasm gap continues through Election Day—or shifts via what the Republicans hope will be a large in-person turnout on November 3—is an open question. However, the Trump campaign and its allies are not counting on popular vote victories to secure a winning margin among state Electoral College delegations. Their litigation strategy arguably has been the Republican Party’s most overt voter suppression effort in years—building on Trump’s ongoing and baseless attacks on the legitimacy of absentee balloting.
The voting wars are legal fights over technicalities in processes that can end up disqualifying—or empowering—blocs of voters to tilt close-margin contests. The 2020 election has seen more litigation over these technicalities, especially surrounding the use of mailed-out (or absentee) ballots, than any recent presidential election. While Democrats secured many early victories, especially in state and federal district courts, Republicans in recent days have won notable decisions—and legal arguments—in the Supreme Court and federal appeals court.
There’s a common thread running through these decisions that appears to give Republicans an opening to initiate post-Election Day litigation. In rulings affecting Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Minnesota, conservatives have highlighted a way to disqualify what may become thousands of absentee ballots that were properly mailed and postmarked (by Election Day), but are received by election officials days later via mail delivery.
Various judges—including a likely Supreme Court majority among the high court’s conservatives without Chief Justice John Roberts—have said that only state legislatures have the authority to regulate elections with federal candidates. That construction is based on the U.S. Constitution, whose opening articles delegate no power to state supreme courts, state constitutions, secretaries of state or statewide election boards to run elections. These non-legislative actors took steps this year to issue regulations to assist voters and election officials in response to COVID-19.
Thus, in Wisconsin, the Supreme Court said absentee ballots that were not received by November 3 would not be counted—because the state’s (Republican majority) legislature did not extend the deadline. Justice Brett Kavanaugh also commented that election results should be known by election night, which mirrors Trump’s rhetoric but does not reflect the reality of states like Wisconsin where local clerks will only start processing 1.1 million ballots that morning.
In Pennsylvania and North Carolina, the Supreme Court said one week before Election Day that it was too late to overturn ballot-return deadlines that went past Tuesday. (In Pennsylvania, it’s Friday, November 6. In North Carolina, it’s Thursday, November 12.) While much national press coverage said those two rulings were Democratic victories, those assessments glossed over statements, concurrences and dissents from four conservative justices that basically said that ballots arriving after Election Day could be disqualified if a legislature didn’t extend the return deadline. Newly seated Justice Amy Coney Barrett didn’t participate in those cases.
In response, Pennsylvania’s attorney general told the Supreme Court that the secretary of state was directing all county election officials to “segregate” all absentee ballots arriving after November 3 and through the November 6 deadline. Election law experts said that Pennsylvania’s move would insulate absentee ballots arriving earlier from challenges—because late-arriving ballots would not be mixed in with those earlier batches of ballots when counted.
North Carolina’s state election board is not following Pennsylvania’s lead—as a precautionary measure. It issued a statement urging all voters to return absentee ballots as soon as possible, but said the final deadline was on November 12.
A day after the Supreme Court ruling in the Pennsylvania and North Carolina suits, a federal appeals court in Minnesota threw out its week-long absentee ballot-return deadline extension—issued this summer by the secretary of state as part of a legal settlement with Republicans.
“The Secretary and his respective agents… are ordered to identify, segregate, and otherwise maintain and preserve all absentee ballots,” the Eighth Circuit Court’s decision said, “in a manner that would allow for their respective votes [for president and vice president]… to be removed from vote totals in the event a final order is entered by a court.”
Taken together, the highest rungs of the federal courts have given the Republicans an opening to seek to disqualify any late-arriving ballots in Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Minnesota. (All other states with extended absentee ballot-return deadlines resulted from legislation.)
How many votes could be implicated should post-Election Day legal challenges arise? Former Oregon Secretary of State Phil Keisling, a Democrat who oversaw its shift to all-mail balloting, said that 90 percent of voters who apply to vote with absentee ballots return those ballots. According to the U.S. Elections Project, which gets its data from state election officials, as of Friday, October 30, hundreds of thousands of absentee ballots are still in play.
In North Carolina, 883,000 ballots have been returned, out of 1.45 million requested ballots, a return rate of 61 percent. Nearly 600,000 absentee ballots have not yet been received.
North Carolina, 883,000 ballots have been returned, out of 1.45 million requested ballots, a return rate of 61 percent. Nearly 600,000 absentee ballots have not yet been received. In Pennsylvania, 2.1 million ballots have been returned, out of 3.1 million requested ballots, a return rate of 68 percent. Nearly 985,000 absentee ballots have not yet been received.
Pennsylvania, 2.1 million ballots have been returned, out of 3.1 million requested ballots, a return rate of 68 percent. Nearly 985,000 absentee ballots have not yet been received. In Minnesota, nearly 1.6 million people voted early and returned their absentee ballots. The state doesn’t further break down those figures. Statewide, 1.97 million absentee ballots were requested.
While there may yet be more federal litigation before Election Day, the big picture is that the Republicans appear to be placing little stock in popular vote victories and are on track to try to win some swing states via challenging late-returning absentee ballots—and as the opening move in post-Election Day litigation. Democrats, on the other hand, are continuing to push voters to return their absentee ballots in person, vote early or vote on Election Day.
Under any scenario, it’s not likely a presidential election winner would be known until later in the week—at the earliest. The U.S. Senate’s majority will take longer, as some states such as Georgia are likely to see runoffs. And control of state legislatures may take longer still, if the balance comes down to a few contests where recounts are triggered.


dailykos--2020-11-02--Analysis: Who would be more effective for Southwest Florida in Congress, Banyai or Donalds?

We all know that tomorrow , Nov. 3 , will mark a momentous , historical day whose memory will be passed down for generations .
While it may be the last day to vote and it ’ s when the votes are counted and the results announced , it won ’ t be the end of the journey .
It will , however , be a major milestone and the start of a new phase of the American story .
Southwest Florida is very much part of that story .
As in the rest of the nation , most minds @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , Nov. 1 , in Florida ’ s Lee and Collier counties , 67.18 percent of voters in Lee County and 76.53 percent in Collier County had cast their ballots .
At the presidential level the final arguments are being made and likely outcomes have been exhaustively polled .
But locally it ’ s worth asking a question that has largely been overlooked despite all the coverage and campaigning : What kind of representation would Southwest Florida and in particular the 19th Congressional District from Cape Coral to Marco Island , get in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ or Republican Byron Donalds ?
While both candidates have made their stances on the issues clear in debates and campaign materials and voters have had plenty of time to evaluate their records and characters , it ’ s worth speculating how each would likely do the actual job of US Representative from Southwest Florida .
What the new Congress will face Several massive issues will confront members of Congress the instant they begin work on Jan. 4 : The transition of power : If Trump refuses to accept clear results or if he @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the outcome , the transition of power at both the presidential and congressional levels could still be in dispute when the new Congress takes office .
The newly elected members will have to assert their legitimacy and authority and this could be a battle that delays addressing other urgent needs .
The pandemic and healthcare : Biden and his team will have to immediately assess the state of the nation ’ s response to the pandemic and prepare measures to mitigate and respond to it .
This will be complicated if the Affordable @ @ @ @ @ @ @ newly-conservative majority Supreme Court the week after the election .
It will also be made more difficult if the outgoing Trump administration and the lame duck Senate actively sabotage or subvert US disease control efforts and a new pandemic response in an effort to deny Biden a “ win.
” The economy : The US economy has been severely damaged by Trump ’ s inept pandemic response .
In the past week , the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down 6.47 percent for its worst week since March 20 because of the lack @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Southwest Florida the travel , hospitality and small retail businesses have been hammered by the overall fall in travel , both domestic and cross-border , and decline in leisure and tourism activities .
With Gov .
Ron DeSantis ( R ) re-opening the state despite the risk of virus-spreading activities , Florida ’ s infection rates are likely to spike even higher and affect its seasonal businesses .
Corruption : While attempting to restore basic government agencies crippled by the Trump administration ( like the Postal Service and the Centers for Disease Control @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and Congress will have to investigate and root out corruption , fraud , waste , abuse and foreign interference invited and ingrained by the president and his circle .
It will have to do this before it can proceed to new solutions and repairs .
Every indication to date is that Democrats will take the presidency , the Senate and the House of Representatives—assuming that vote counting is done properly , efforts to suppress the vote on the ground and in the legal system are unsuccessful and the results are honestly presented and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , Southwest Florida will have a representative who will be in a likely majority in the House of Representatives .
The importance of this can not be overstated .
It means that proposals and legislation she introduces will have a higher probability of making it through the legislative process all the way to the president ’ s desk and being signed into law .
Banyai ’ s chief challenge will be to make Southwest Florida ’ s priorities stand out amidst every other member ’ s competing priorities .
However , Southwest Floridians @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a similar situation in her underdog campaign at both the primary and general election levels , where she showed a willingness to tackle seemingly overwhelming odds .
In her favor is the fact that she is a proven coalition-builder .
By being in the majority her job will be easier in that she will face less resistance in forging alliances with fellow Democrats rather than trying to corral and motivate hostile Republicans to help win majorities for her proposals .
Given Southwest Florida ’ s environmental sensitivity , it will help that Banyai @ @ @ @ @ @ @ environmentally-friendly Congress and administration than previously .
This will have an impact on issues critical to the region , in particular preserving the purity of its waters .
Much of her effectiveness will depend on her committee assignments .
If she follows Rep. Francis Rooney ’ s lead in getting a seat on the environmental subcommittee of the Science , Space , and Technology Committee , she will be in a position to help Southwest Florida ’ s water purification efforts .
In this she is likely to be aided by an Environmental @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Joe Biden that will be working to restore water protections stripped away during the Trump presidency .
Such an EPA is likely to be more accommodating to Southwest Florida needs presented by a Democratic representative .
This bodes well for obtaining steady , reliable Everglades restoration funding and advancing the projects of the Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan .
It will also likely help efforts to fight harmful algal blooms and pollution .
When it comes to offshore oil exploitation , Joe Biden has declared that he is opposed to new offshore oil drilling @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , which under Trump relentlessly sought to find ways to promote oil exploitation both on land and offshore , will instead be working to conserve the natural environment .
A Biden administration and a Democratic Congress will also be more helpful to Southwest Floridians and businesses economically hurt by the pandemic .
A new stimulus bill will probably be passed fairly quickly and small businesses will get more assistance through paycheck protection and another round of funding .
If the pandemic can be eased , travel and border restrictions can be relaxed , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of the foreign tourism , especially from Canada , that sustains the local economy .
A Biden administration will also be friendlier to first responders and medical personnel , helping them obtain personal protective equipment and implementing rather than resisting experts ’ advice in fighting the pandemic .
Banyai will be able to assist in those efforts .
If Byron Donalds wins his race in the 19th District while the rest of the House of Representatives goes Democratic , he will be in the minority and in a diminished position to deliver anything @ @ @ @ @ @ @ be elevated to a very high public profile position by the Republican leadership of the party and in Congress because , as he himself put it in his campaign : “ I ’ m everything the fake news media says doesn ’ t exist : a Trump-supporting , liberty-loving , pro-life , pro-2nd Amendment black man.
” As such , he will probably be used by Republicans and the conservative movement to refute charges of racism and white supremacy .
However , as an unreconstructed and unapologetic Trumper , Donalds will be representing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and discredited ideology .
No doubt the Trumpers elected to the House will spend their time resisting Democratic initiatives , trying to roll back pandemic responses and obstructing efforts to enact police and social justice reforms .
If after the inauguration Trump continues to fight a loss at the polls or refuses to accept the voters ’ verdict , his congressional followers will likely waste their time in Congress bolstering his claims and fighting the election results , as they did with endless , failed , wasteful , symbolic roll call votes against @ @ @ @ @ @ @ leadership will likely expect Donalds to take a leading role in these efforts and there ’ s no reason not to believe that he will comply .
Nor is there any reason to expect he will launch individual initiatives apart from the ideological agenda of the organizations that supported him like Club for Growth , Americans for Prosperity , the National Rifle Association and anti-abortion groups .
While giving him a high national profile , it will not put him in a good position to advance the kind of practical legislation that Southwest @ @ @ @ @ @ @ protection , labor and business support ) or build bridges to the Democratic majority .
Much of Donalds ’ effectiveness will depend on the committee assignments he gets and in the Republican caucus those assignments are determined by a member ’ s fundraising prowess for the party .
If Donalds doesn ’ t meet his fundraising targets he ’ s likely to be shunted off to marginal or obscure committees where he can do Southwest Florida little good .
It is also likely that given his past history and his wife ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Donalds will likely be making efforts to advance charter schools at the expense of public education in a Congress that will be strongly supportive of public schools .
As it stands , since Southwest Florida is not a national center of population , industry , commerce or communications it has little clout in the halls of Congress based purely on its demographic and geographic attributes .
It has been a politically peripheral district throughout its existence .
Its vital interests are easily ignored or overlooked .
For this reason , the 19th Congressional @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and energetic representative to promote its interests at the federal level .
Regardless of what happens in the race for President and the makeup of the Senate , it is highly likely that the House will be overwhelmingly Democratic .
Election of an ideologically fringe representative , no matter how popular he may be with local conservative activists , will keep the 19th District at the margins of the national agenda and irrelevant to major national policies affecting it .
Clearly , election of Cindy Banyai , the Democratic candidate , will better @ @ @ @ @ @ @ environment of Southwest Florida .

The Paradise Progressive Analysis November 2, 2020 7 Minutes
Nov. 2, 2020 by David Silverberg
We all know that tomorrow, Nov. 3, will mark a momentous, historical day whose memory will be passed down for generations. While it may be the last day to vote and it’s when the votes are counted and the results announced, it won’t be the end of the journey. It will, however, be a major milestone and the start of a new phase of the American story.
Southwest Florida is very much part of that story. As in the rest of the nation, most minds are made up. As of Sunday, Nov. 1, in Florida’s Lee and Collier counties, 67.18 percent of voters in Lee County and 76.53 percent in Collier County had cast their ballots.
At the presidential level the final arguments are being made and likely outcomes have been exhaustively polled.
But locally it’s worth asking a question that has largely been overlooked despite all the coverage and campaigning: What kind of representation would Southwest Florida and in particular the 19th Congressional District from Cape Coral to Marco Island, get in Congress if voters elect Democrat Cindy Banyai or Republican Byron Donalds?
While both candidates have made their stances on the issues clear in debates and campaign materials and voters have had plenty of time to evaluate their records and characters, it’s worth speculating how each would likely do the actual job of US Representative from Southwest Florida.
What the new Congress will face
Several massive issues will confront members of Congress the instant they begin work on Jan. 4:
The transition of power: If Trump refuses to accept clear results or if he incites insurrection or denies the legitimacy of the outcome, the transition of power at both the presidential and congressional levels could still be in dispute when the new Congress takes office. The newly elected members will have to assert their legitimacy and authority and this could be a battle that delays addressing other urgent needs.
The pandemic and healthcare: Biden and his team will have to immediately assess the state of the nation’s response to the pandemic and prepare measures to mitigate and respond to it. This will be complicated if the Affordable Care Act is struck down by the newly-conservative majority Supreme Court the week after the election. It will also be made more difficult if the outgoing Trump administration and the lame duck Senate actively sabotage or subvert US disease control efforts and a new pandemic response in an effort to deny Biden a “win.”
The economy: The US economy has been severely damaged by Trump’s inept pandemic response. In the past week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down 6.47 percent for its worst week since March 20 because of the lack of a second stimulus package. In Southwest Florida the travel, hospitality and small retail businesses have been hammered by the overall fall in travel, both domestic and cross-border, and decline in leisure and tourism activities. With Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) re-opening the state despite the risk of virus-spreading activities, Florida’s infection rates are likely to spike even higher and affect its seasonal businesses.
Corruption: While attempting to restore basic government agencies crippled by the Trump administration (like the Postal Service and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention), a new administration and Congress will have to investigate and root out corruption, fraud, waste, abuse and foreign interference invited and ingrained by the president and his circle. It will have to do this before it can proceed to new solutions and repairs.
The scenarios
Every indication to date is that Democrats will take the presidency, the Senate and the House of Representatives—assuming that vote counting is done properly, efforts to suppress the vote on the ground and in the legal system are unsuccessful and the results are honestly presented and reported.
A Cindy Banyai win
If Cindy Banyai is elected, Southwest Florida will have a representative who will be in a likely majority in the House of Representatives. The importance of this cannot be overstated. It means that proposals and legislation she introduces will have a higher probability of making it through the legislative process all the way to the president’s desk and being signed into law.
Banyai’s chief challenge will be to make Southwest Florida’s priorities stand out amidst every other member’s competing priorities. However, Southwest Floridians had a preview of her response to a similar situation in her underdog campaign at both the primary and general election levels, where she showed a willingness to tackle seemingly overwhelming odds.
In her favor is the fact that she is a proven coalition-builder. By being in the majority her job will be easier in that she will face less resistance in forging alliances with fellow Democrats rather than trying to corral and motivate hostile Republicans to help win majorities for her proposals.
Given Southwest Florida’s environmental sensitivity, it will help that Banyai will be operating in a far more environmentally-friendly Congress and administration than previously. This will have an impact on issues critical to the region, in particular preserving the purity of its waters.
Much of her effectiveness will depend on her committee assignments. If she follows Rep. Francis Rooney’s lead in getting a seat on the environmental subcommittee of the Science, Space, and Technology Committee, she will be in a position to help Southwest Florida’s water purification efforts.
In this she is likely to be aided by an Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) under President Joe Biden that will be working to restore water protections stripped away during the Trump presidency. Such an EPA is likely to be more accommodating to Southwest Florida needs presented by a Democratic representative. This bodes well for obtaining steady, reliable Everglades restoration funding and advancing the projects of the Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan. It will also likely help efforts to fight harmful algal blooms and pollution.
When it comes to offshore oil exploitation, Joe Biden has declared that he is opposed to new offshore oil drilling. This means that the Interior Department, which under Trump relentlessly sought to find ways to promote oil exploitation both on land and offshore, will instead be working to conserve the natural environment.
A Biden administration and a Democratic Congress will also be more helpful to Southwest Floridians and businesses economically hurt by the pandemic. A new stimulus bill will probably be passed fairly quickly and small businesses will get more assistance through paycheck protection and another round of funding. If the pandemic can be eased, travel and border restrictions can be relaxed, so Southwest Florida may see a resumption of the foreign tourism, especially from Canada, that sustains the local economy.
A Biden administration will also be friendlier to first responders and medical personnel, helping them obtain personal protective equipment and implementing rather than resisting experts’ advice in fighting the pandemic. Banyai will be able to assist in those efforts.
A Byron Donalds win
If Byron Donalds wins his race in the 19th District while the rest of the House of Representatives goes Democratic, he will be in the minority and in a diminished position to deliver anything for Southwest Florida.
Donalds will likely be elevated to a very high public profile position by the Republican leadership of the party and in Congress because, as he himself put it in his campaign: “I’m everything the fake news media says doesn’t exist: a Trump-supporting, liberty-loving, pro-life, pro-2nd Amendment black man.” As such, he will probably be used by Republicans and the conservative movement to refute charges of racism and white supremacy.
However, as an unreconstructed and unapologetic Trumper, Donalds will be representing what will likely become an increasingly marginalized and discredited ideology. No doubt the Trumpers elected to the House will spend their time resisting Democratic initiatives, trying to roll back pandemic responses and obstructing efforts to enact police and social justice reforms. If after the inauguration Trump continues to fight a loss at the polls or refuses to accept the voters’ verdict, his congressional followers will likely waste their time in Congress bolstering his claims and fighting the election results, as they did with endless, failed, wasteful, symbolic roll call votes against the Affordable Care Act.
The Republican leadership will likely expect Donalds to take a leading role in these efforts and there’s no reason not to believe that he will comply. Nor is there any reason to expect he will launch individual initiatives apart from the ideological agenda of the organizations that supported him like Club for Growth, Americans for Prosperity, the National Rifle Association and anti-abortion groups.
While giving him a high national profile, it will not put him in a good position to advance the kind of practical legislation that Southwest Florida needs (steady appropriations, environmental protection, labor and business support) or build bridges to the Democratic majority.
Much of Donalds’ effectiveness will depend on the committee assignments he gets and in the Republican caucus those assignments are determined by a member’s fundraising prowess for the party. If Donalds doesn’t meet his fundraising targets he’s likely to be shunted off to marginal or obscure committees where he can do Southwest Florida little good.
It is also likely that given his past history and his wife’s prominence in the charter school movement, Donalds will likely be making efforts to advance charter schools at the expense of public education in a Congress that will be strongly supportive of public schools.
Analysis: Mainstream or margin?
As it stands, since Southwest Florida is not a national center of population, industry, commerce or communications it has little clout in the halls of Congress based purely on its demographic and geographic attributes. It has been a politically peripheral district throughout its existence. Its vital interests are easily ignored or overlooked.
For this reason, the 19th Congressional District needs an especially active, aggressive and energetic representative to promote its interests at the federal level.
Regardless of what happens in the race for President and the makeup of the Senate, it is highly likely that the House will be overwhelmingly Democratic.
Election of an ideologically fringe representative, no matter how popular he may be with local conservative activists, will keep the 19th District at the margins of the national agenda and irrelevant to major national policies affecting it.
Clearly, election of Cindy Banyai, the Democratic candidate, will better serve the residents, businesses and the environment of Southwest Florida.
Liberty lives in light
© 2020 by David Silverberg