dailykos--2020-11-03--Tipping Point Races: Looking at the Key Contests for Control

Hi I am a 15-year old political analyst into data .
Here is an article I devoted to giving a grasp on clues for the election .
If you like my work please recommend and follow my Twiter @ Pollsterking1 The Presidency , Senate Control , the House of Representatives , and state legislatures are crucial for decisions in our lives .
However many races are safe for one party or another .
However then there are , `` Swing States '' with `` Swing Districts '' .
Even `` Swing Counties '' and `` Swing Precincts '' are discussed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ competitive ( sometimes third-parties are also competitive ) .
In this issue the tipping point races for The Presidency , Senate Control , House Control , State Legislatures , and more will be discussed .
How did I get Tipping Point Status ?
I looked at each chamber and evaluated voter turnout , partisan registration , early voting statistics , polling data , and consensus from a few fellow political observers .
Upper Uwchlan Township is in bellweather Chester County Pennsylvania .
While Chester County will likely vote for Joe Biden , margins @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
However my model and the general consensus is Pennsylvania will determine White House Control .
Pennsylvania by raw partisan registration numbers leans Democrat substantially .
However many Democrats in Pennsylvania defected to Trump ( particularly Democrat 's in rural areas ) .
This combined with near uniform Republican strength and Independents backing Trump helped him narrowly carry Pennsylvania 's 20-electoral votes .
He already had 270 , but this helped cement it .
This sent shockwaves through many , who thought Clinton would carry the Keystone state .
However the final RCP @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , 46.8-44.7 % .
While fairly large , there are two key differences between then and now .
Firstly 46.8 % is far from 50 % , and many undecideds break for Trump .
That is why many say 50 % or above is the number to have to feel comfortable , and even then polling errors occur .
The current RCP average as of November 1st has Biden leading by 4 % , 49.3-45.3 % in Pennsylvania , and Biden is above 50 % in the Wisconsin and Michigan RCP Polling Average @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is higher than Clinton 's 46.8 % .
Taking into account third-parties , the undecided bar is way lower than 2016 .
This means undecideds would likely have to go overwhelmingly for Trump , and there also has to already be a small polling error in favor of Trump 's favor .
Recently Democratic polling firm Public Policy Polling said late polling shows Biden winning late breaking undecideds .
While both variables of a polling error and Trump crushing it with undecideds is possible , it is highly unlikely .
Secondly many pollsters @ @ @ @ @ @ @ non-college educated electorate was higher than anticipated , and overwhelmingly went for Trump .
As this discrepancy had not occurred as large as in 2016 , weighting by education was not used commonly before .
This meant many 2016 polls oversampled college-educated voters .
This was a reason many polls got 2016 wrong .
Also polling was not as off as many claim .
Only in Wisconsin was the RCP average Margin of Error larger than the final result ( and polling was more sparse in Wisconsin as well as Michigan and Pennsylvania @ @ @ @ @ @ @ general feeling of a large Clinton lead there ) .
With these two factors in mind , it is possible Trump wins Pennsylvania , but a major polling error and/or nearly all undecideds would have to go to Trump .
While possible , it is not likely .
This is why my model gives Biden a 79.4 % of winning Pennsylvania .
However , expect to not know the winner in Pennsylvania for a while as mail-in ballots will likely not trickle in until a while as mail-ballots can not be processed until @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
This will also likely make Pennsylvania appear redder at first than the final result due to data suggesting Biden will do better in mail-in ballots than Election-Day votes .
My model also showed Arizona might be the tipping point state .
If Pennsylvania goes to Trump , but Wisconsin , Michigan , and Nebraska 's 2nd Congressional District ( Nebraska delegates 3/5 of their EV 's by Congressional-District and the 2nd CD is seen as leaning to Biden ) do n't then Arizona is likely Biden 's best bet for 270 .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ : heavily suburban , heavily retiree , and heavily mormon .
These three groups are seen as shifting to Democrats ( especially Biden ) in huge numbers .
These three groups powered Democrats ' House Majority , and are now in large part why Biden has an edge in Arizona .
In numbers Latinos are the biggest base for Biden in Arizona , however Latinos are seen as shifting to Trump from 2016 , which could hurt Biden .
Biden must work to retain Latino support .
Luckily for Biden there appears to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ than in other swing states like Florida .
If Biden can hold down his losses , or even neutralize or improve with Latinos then that is really good for him considering the three groups mentioned above will almost shift to Biden relative to 2016 .
However polling still shows Biden doing better in Pennsylvania than Arizona , in large part due to Republicans already built-in registration advantage .
There will have to be a considerable amount of Biden Republicans as well as strong Independent support for Biden to win Arizona .
This is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is seen as leaning towards Biden-with Biden having a 68.1 % chance of carrying Arizona .
While 79.4 % and 68.1 % are a sizable difference in % , in actual margins my model thinks Pennsylvania will only vote 1-2 % to the left of Arizona , and both have different electorates .
This is why Arizona is seen as Plan B as Arizona has a different coalition that could mean Biden could still win in Arizona if Trump does better than expected with white-working class voters .
Control for the Senate is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ seeing a Democratic Majority as more likely than a Republican one , especially if Biden emerges victorious .
If Biden wins then the magic number for Democrats falls to 50 , which is seen as much easier to achieve .
Either way many including my model predict North Carolina will be seat fifty for Democrats and the Georgia Senate Special Election is seat fifty-one .
Democrats are projected to lose Alabama , however Sen. Doug Jones ( D ) is making the race closer than some expected .
Democrats on the other hand @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Senator Cory Gardner in Colorado .
Both of these losses fault on the partisan composition of the state and how polarized the environment is .
This means Democrats still have 47 Senate seats .
Democrats are also modest favorites to oust Republican Senator Martha McSally in Arizona who was appointed to fill the late John McCains Senate seat .
Astronaut Mark Kelly has always held a substantial lead in polling , he is killing it with fundraising , and Biden is favored to flip the state .
Maine is expected to be close @ @ @ @ @ @ @ consistently trailing Maine Speaker of the House Sara Gideon .
Furthermore due to ranked-choice voting Gideon is likely going to benefit on the back of Green Party Nominee Lisa Savage 's second preferences .
Savage has openly endorsed Gideon as her second preference .
Collins has had several tough votes that have decimated her approval rating among Democrats and Independents , including voting to confirm Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court .
That means Democrats would have 49 seats , one or two short of a majority depending on the Presidential outcome .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ Carolina .
The seat for much of the summer and early fall was expected to be won by Democratic Military Prosecutor and Former State Senator Cal Cunningham .
Republican Senator Thom Tillis has had low approval ratings consistently and has angered both sides .
This is in large part due to Tillis opposing further border wall funding back in 2019 , but after backtracking and voting to expand border wall funding .
This made people question his loyalty to Trump , while also angering opponents of the border wall .
Polling had always @ @ @ @ @ @ @ race than the Governor or Presidential race in the Tar Heel State with Cunningham always holding a firm edge .
Then Cunningham had an October surprise when it came out he had an affair .
He declined to speak to the press about it , and the scandal made his approval rating plummet .
Now with both men disliked it has come down in large part to polarization .
Many are reluctantly voting for Cunningham and vice versa .
Polling shows the race is now more correlated with the Presidential race , and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ their party 's nominee substantially .
There are also still many undecideds .
We will get results fairly early relative to other states in North Carolina , with the State Board of Elections estimating 97 % of the final vote will be in on Election Night .
Worth noting ballots received by November 9th that were postmarked by Election Day will be counted , after SCOTUS upheld a State Supreme Court ruling affirming the BOE 's decision .
This could give Democrats a late boost in the state .
My model shows Cunningham @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , a modest edge but far from ruling Tillis out .
It will also be interesting to see if sex scandals still have as big as an impact as they used to .
If Democrats lose North Carolina they still have several options , as well as several options to seat 51 if Tillis loses .
Their next best bet is arguably Georgia 's Special Election to serve out the remaining 2-years of the late Johnny Isakson 's term .
After stepping down due to health concerns Gov .
Brian Kemp appointed businesswoman @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
This was rebuked by many in the Trump-wing of the GOP including Trump himself who supported Conservative firebrand Rep. Doug Collins to be appointed to the seat .
Now Collins is challenging Loeffler from the right in the Jungle Primary , where there is a run-off if nobody achieves 50 % in the first round .
Also running on the Democratic side are Reverend Raphael Warnock who is widely seen as the front-runner and was propelled in first by practically the entire Democratic Party coalescing behind him .
Joe Libermans son Matt @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Ed Tarver on the Dem side , and many Democrats fear they will siphon votes away from Warnock .
Earlier concerns were that they would lock Warnock out of the run-off , but with Warnock being seen as a front-runner they now are afraid they will prevent Warnock from avoiding a run-off , and they are likely right .
The race will likely go to a run-off .
If a run-off occurs many believe as it historically has in that Democratic turnout will drop , and Republicans will be more favored .
However @ @ @ @ @ @ @ edge .
Political observers I talked to came to a consensus that Loeffler and Collins trying to both run to the far-right will damage them in a run-off .
Iowa is another prime target , where Sen. Joni Ernst finds herself in hot water against realtor Theresa Greenfield .
Greenfield has run on a moderate-esque platform including denouncing some more progressive positions .
She was leading the Incumbent for much of the campaign , however Ernst has appeared to pull ahead late in the cycle .
However polling is still extremely tight and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in the polling average .
Polling shows different stories , but most polls show Greenfield outrunning Biden .
Georgia 's regular election is also tight where Former Congressional Candidate and filmmaker Jon Ossoff is giving incumbent Republican David Perdue a run for his money .
Recent polling has shown a tight race , and with a Libertarian candidate on the ballot a run-off for this race may also occur .
My model shows a run-off as the most likely scenario .
Perdue would likely hold an edge in a run-off , but run-offs @ @ @ @ @ @ @ with Democratic Governor Steve Bullock only trailing narrowly against Incumbent Steve Daines .
Early voting data has shown Democratic Countries and younger people turning out strong in Montana , which has helped Bullock in my model .
Daines has a 60.7 % chance of winning in my model , which could mean either side wins .
There are many more tight Senate races such as Kansas , South Carolina , Alaska .
However they are seen more as reach targets for Democrats , and will almost certainly not be the fiftieth or fifty-first @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Incumbents in swingy Minnesota , Michigan , and New Hampshire .
However only Michigan seems remotely competitively , and even then Incumbent Gary Peters is seen as having a large edge .
The House unlike the Presidency and Senate is not seen as particularly competitive , however Republicans think they have a chance .
Narrowing Democrats majority is possible , but getting an outright majority is very difficult in this environment .
My model shows a chance of a Republican-controlled House at 3.3 % with Democrats having a 96.1 % chance of control @ @ @ @ @ @ @ tie .
If there is a crazy red wave and Republicans are looking for House control then my model shows Michigan 's 8th Congressional District as their 218th seat .
The seat comprises Democratic-heavy Lansing before wrapping east to take in the ruby-red Detroit exurbs .
In 2018 U.S. Intelligence Official Elissa Slotkin flipped the seat blue riding on a large win in Lansing and cutting the margins in the Republican-heavy portions of the District .
Now Republicans are running Paul Junge , a former local news anchor and Trump administration Immigration Official @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , but the race got attention when Slotkin attacked Junge for bringing up her mother in a spar over healthcare at a debate .
The seat should go to Junge if you look at raw data , but Slotkin is a good fit and 2020 is not seen as the year Republicans flip the House back .
Slotkin has a 94 % chance in my model , slightly lower than the chances Democrats have at retaining House control .
The 219th seat for Republicans to gain control instead of tying the chamber to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ my model Iowa 's 2nd Congressional District .
In the southeast corner of Iowa , the 2nd consists of rural farm-towns , liberal University of Iowa , and the city of Davenport .
The popular Democratic Incumbent is retiring and both major party 's candidates are current or former Iowa State Senators .
Democrat Rita Hart has an edge , however a poll on Halloween by the reputable Ann Selzer showed Republican Marianette Miller-Meeks up 41-40 .
The sample size was small and many scrutinized the Congressional results in the poll .
However @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the model shows it as Republicans 219th seat .
One could reckon it will be closer , and the model is largely using built-in statistics such as partisan registration stats .
However the general feeling is Hart will win .
There are many opportunities for both parties to gain seats in the House , and Democrats are expected to make House gains .
However Republicans could make gains , especially if Trump wins .
These were much harder to predict , and for these projections a general model was not used , instead @ @ @ @ @ @ @ looked at the median seat in several factors such as fundraising , partisan composition ( when applicable ) , and candidate quality among other things .
Here is what I believe each key race will be for determining control of a chamber , but the median seat could be any key seat in a legislature .
A great tool for analyzing state legislature chambers is CNalysis .
Senate District 24- In 2018 Democrat Tom Sherman flipped the 24th resting along the Gulf of Maine .
The District while narrowly backing Hillary Clinton in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ friendly .
That same night Republicans held SD-24 .
Looking at 2020 just like the chamber itself is likely to stay Democratic , so will SD-24 However if the GOP are having a good night they might flip the chamber back , as well as the 24th .
House District 105- In the Harrisburg suburbs , the 105th is a GOP seat .
Voting for Trump by roughly 8-points the seat has strong Republican roots , as does Dauphin County historically .
With Democrats expected to net around 5 seats in the Philly @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ( due to the Republican having a scandal and a Conservative third-party candidate ) Democrats would only need three more State House seats .
There are more toss-up seats in the Philly suburbs that Dems can win and a couple toss-ups in the Pittsburgh area .
However Democrats are expected to lose a State House seat in a +34 Trump seat due to the Incumbent Democrat retiring .
This means if Democrats do really well in the suburbs or there are some rural surprises Democrats have a shot .
The 105th is a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ shot , but would need a wave .
That is why Republicans remain the slight favorite for the gerrymandered State House .
Senate District 13- The State Senate is seen as slightly more competitive ( in large part due to Democrats winning a special election in the Pittsburgh suburbs last year ) it is no easy feat , especially after Democratic State Senator Joe Yudichak became an Independent caucusing with Republicans .
Now Democrats need to flip two seats they are favored in , carry a toss-up seat centered in Harrisburg , and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the 13th is heavily Republican , but progressive Janet King is trying to flip the seat .
Winning would require large Democratic margins out of blue Lancaster City and not getting romped in the rural portions of the seat .
As with the chamber Republicans are slightly favored in the 13th , but if a blue wave occurs or Yudichak comes back to the Dems they have a good shot .
Senate District 2- West Virginia 's Upper Chamber could revert back to Democrats despite it 's heavy Republican lean federally as Democrats @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 2nd Republican Mike Maroney was the favorite , until it came out he solicited prostitutes , and then an arrest warrant was issued against him for using the prefix Doctor on campaign signs without saying which kind of doctor he is , which violates state law .
Will partisanship save him ?
House District 83- In the Charlotte suburbs , Democrat Gail Young is trying to flip the historically Republican State House seat .
Trump won HD-38 57-39 % , but Incumbent compared Abraham Lincoln to Hitler , denies climate change , believes @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and called for the shooting of protesters .
However partisan fundamentals make winning the seat just like the House hard .
Another note-in 2018 in a slightly altered seat ( the State SCOTUS demanded new fair maps for both NC state legislature chambers after the 2018 midterms ) Young held Pittman to a < 6 % win .
ECaliberSeven 's informative precinct map shows partisan divides are present in the District Senate District 24- In yet another key Senate seat numbered # 24 , this seat takes in rural areas between Greensboro and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ However Veteran J.D .
Wooten is making the race close .
The 54-42 % Trump seat is the site of Alamance County , where recently a GOTV rally ended in the local Republican Sheriff having his deputies pepper-spray rally-goers .
If Wooten wins in his rematch , Dems have a good shot of winning State Senate control and having a say in redistricting ( the Governor is powerless in redistricting decisions in North Carolina ) .
House District 45- In suburban and Dem-trending Oakland County the Rochester Hills based 45th will be a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ as well as the extent of Oaklands blue shift .
Dems need four more seats for a majority , and the 45th may be that 4th seat .
Senate District 56- Arguably the most vulnerable chamber for control flipping is the Minnesota State Senate .
Democrats are favored to flip around 3-4 seats , but only need two for a majority , assuming notable Tik-Toker Matt Little wins re-election in his Republican-leaning seat in the southern Minneapolis suburbs .
The 48-44 Clinton 56th is prime ground for a Democratic flip .
The suburban @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and arch-homophobe Dan Hall who took a , when a conversion therapy ban was defeated is a controversial politician .
He is expected to lose and thus give Democrats full control of Minnesota state Government .
House District 16- In the Omaha suburbs the Trump-won 16th is a toss-up , as is State House control .
If Democrats flip the chamber they can block some measures of the Conservative Iowa Governor and Senate .
Many toss-up seats in the House are in rural and suburban areas .
The 16th is an open seat @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on behalf of Democratic nominee Jen Pellant .
House District 67- The State House was drawn by Republicans to keep Republicans in power , but due to suburban shifts the redistricting backfired with Beto O'Rourke carrying a bare majority of State House seats despite losing by around 3-points in his Senate bid against Ted Cruz .
One of those seats was the Plano-based 67th .
The +5.5 O'Rourke District is represented by Conservative and heavy-fundraiser Jeff Leach .
Democrats selected education advocate Lorenzo Sanchez as their nominee , besting the more moderate Tom @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Leach and Sanchez have amassed large fundraising chests , and the race is close with CNalysis giving Dems the advantage .
The race will be close , and control for the Texas State House may be the biggest contest for redistricting ( Texas is poised to gain House seats , and Democrats want to block a Republican gerrymander ) .
House District 1- Alaska is interesting in the sense that a coalition that consists of Democrats , Republicans , and Independents have a bipartisan majority in the lower chamber .
This has been @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and Republican Governor Mike Dunleavy .
The coalition was expected to be returned until two Republican coalition members announced they would support the Republican minority and partner with non-coalition Republicans to make a sole Republican majority .
One of those two members Bart Lebon won his Fairbanks-based State House seat by exactly one vote in 2018 .
Now Democrats are mad , and are working to dispatch him .
A Democrat and an Independent are also favored to flip two Anchorage-held Republican seats .
If those two seats flip and Lebon loses then @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Another Republican coalition member Louise Stutes has sent mixed signals on if she will continue to support the coalition , and whomever she supports might determine control .
Tipping point races will not 100 % mean a definite result overall , but will be good benchmarks into seeing how the Election will ultimately go .
These most likely with the exception of the President and Senate be the ultimate median seats , but will likely be close to the median seat .

Hi I am a 15-year old political analyst into data. Here is an article I devoted to giving a grasp on clues for the election. If you like my work please recommend and follow my Twiter @Pollsterking1
The Presidency, Senate Control, the House of Representatives, and state legislatures are crucial for decisions in our lives. However many races are safe for one party or another. However then there are, "Swing States" with "Swing Districts". Even "Swing Counties" and "Swing Precincts" are discussed. These are where both parties are competitive (sometimes third-parties are also competitive). In this issue the tipping point races for The Presidency, Senate Control, House Control, State Legislatures, and more will be discussed.
How did I get Tipping Point Status? I looked at each chamber and evaluated voter turnout, partisan registration, early voting statistics, polling data, and consensus from a few fellow political observers.
Without further ado-
Presidency-Pennsylvania (With Arizona a Close Second)
Upper Uwchlan Township is in bellweather Chester County Pennsylvania. While Chester County will likely vote for Joe Biden, margins matter!
This was a tough call. However my model and the general consensus is Pennsylvania will determine White House Control. Pennsylvania by raw partisan registration numbers leans Democrat substantially. However many Democrats in Pennsylvania defected to Trump (particularly Democrat's in rural areas). This combined with near uniform Republican strength and Independents backing Trump helped him narrowly carry Pennsylvania's 20-electoral votes. He already had 270, but this helped cement it.
This sent shockwaves through many, who thought Clinton would carry the Keystone state. However the final RCP average only had Clinton up 2.1%, 46.8-44.7%. While fairly large, there are two key differences between then and now. Firstly 46.8% is far from 50%, and many undecideds break for Trump. That is why many say 50% or above is the number to have to feel comfortable, and even then polling errors occur. The current RCP average as of November 1st has Biden leading by 4%, 49.3-45.3% in Pennsylvania, and Biden is above 50% in the Wisconsin and Michigan RCP Polling Average. While not 50%, that is higher than Clinton's 46.8%. Taking into account third-parties, the undecided bar is way lower than 2016. This means undecideds would likely have to go overwhelmingly for Trump, and there also has to already be a small polling error in favor of Trump's favor. Recently Democratic polling firm Public Policy Polling said late polling shows Biden winning late breaking undecideds. While both variables of a polling error and Trump crushing it with undecideds is possible, it is highly unlikely.
Secondly many pollsters now weigh education. In 2016 the non-college educated electorate was higher than anticipated, and overwhelmingly went for Trump. As this discrepancy had not occurred as large as in 2016, weighting by education was not used commonly before. This meant many 2016 polls oversampled college-educated voters. This was a reason many polls got 2016 wrong. Also polling was not as off as many claim. Only in Wisconsin was the RCP average Margin of Error larger than the final result (and polling was more sparse in Wisconsin as well as Michigan and Pennsylvania late in the game due to the general feeling of a large Clinton lead there).
With these two factors in mind, it is possible Trump wins Pennsylvania, but a major polling error and/or nearly all undecideds would have to go to Trump. While possible, it is not likely. This is why my model gives Biden a 79.4% of winning Pennsylvania. However, expect to not know the winner in Pennsylvania for a while as mail-in ballots will likely not trickle in until a while as mail-ballots cannot be processed until 7:00 AM on Election Day in Pennsylvania. This will also likely make Pennsylvania appear redder at first than the final result due to data suggesting Biden will do better in mail-in ballots than Election-Day votes.
My model also showed Arizona might be the tipping point state. If Pennsylvania goes to Trump, but Wisconsin, Michigan, and Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District (Nebraska delegates 3/5 of their EV's by Congressional-District and the 2nd CD is seen as leaning to Biden) don't then Arizona is likely Biden's best bet for 270. The state is prime ground for Biden: heavily suburban, heavily retiree, and heavily mormon. These three groups are seen as shifting to Democrats (especially Biden) in huge numbers. These three groups powered Democrats' House Majority, and are now in large part why Biden has an edge in Arizona. In numbers Latinos are the biggest base for Biden in Arizona, however Latinos are seen as shifting to Trump from 2016, which could hurt Biden. Biden must work to retain Latino support. Luckily for Biden there appears to be less bleeding from Latinos in Arizona than in other swing states like Florida. If Biden can hold down his losses, or even neutralize or improve with Latinos then that is really good for him considering the three groups mentioned above will almost shift to Biden relative to 2016. However polling still shows Biden doing better in Pennsylvania than Arizona, in large part due to Republicans already built-in registration advantage. There will have to be a considerable amount of Biden Republicans as well as strong Independent support for Biden to win Arizona. This is certainly possible, which is why Arizona is seen as leaning towards Biden-with Biden having a 68.1% chance of carrying Arizona.
While 79.4% and 68.1% are a sizable difference in %, in actual margins my model thinks Pennsylvania will only vote 1-2% to the left of Arizona, and both have different electorates. This is why Arizona is seen as Plan B as Arizona has a different coalition that could mean Biden could still win in Arizona if Trump does better than expected with white-working class voters.
Senate-North Carolina
Control for the Senate is being heavily contested, with most now seeing a Democratic Majority as more likely than a Republican one, especially if Biden emerges victorious. If Biden wins then the magic number for Democrats falls to 50, which is seen as much easier to achieve. Either way many including my model predict North Carolina will be seat fifty for Democrats and the Georgia Senate Special Election is seat fifty-one.
Democrats are projected to lose Alabama, however Sen. Doug Jones (D) is making the race closer than some expected. Democrats on the other hand are almost certain to oust Republican Incumbent Senator Cory Gardner in Colorado. Both of these losses fault on the partisan composition of the state and how polarized the environment is. This means Democrats still have 47 Senate seats.
Democrats are hoping to unseat appointed Republican Senator Martha McSally
Democrats are also modest favorites to oust Republican Senator Martha McSally in Arizona who was appointed to fill the late John McCains Senate seat. Astronaut Mark Kelly has always held a substantial lead in polling, he is killing it with fundraising, and Biden is favored to flip the state.
Maine is expected to be close, but Republican Senator Susan Collins is consistently trailing Maine Speaker of the House Sara Gideon. Furthermore due to ranked-choice voting Gideon is likely going to benefit on the back of Green Party Nominee Lisa Savage's second preferences. Savage has openly endorsed Gideon as her second preference. Collins has had several tough votes that have decimated her approval rating among Democrats and Independents, including voting to confirm Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court.
That means Democrats would have 49 seats, one or two short of a majority depending on the Presidential outcome. The 50th seat will likely be North Carolina. The seat for much of the summer and early fall was expected to be won by Democratic Military Prosecutor and Former State Senator Cal Cunningham. Republican Senator Thom Tillis has had low approval ratings consistently and has angered both sides. This is in large part due to Tillis opposing further border wall funding back in 2019, but after backtracking and voting to expand border wall funding. This made people question his loyalty to Trump, while also angering opponents of the border wall.
Polling had always shown many more undecideds in the Senate race than the Governor or Presidential race in the Tar Heel State with Cunningham always holding a firm edge. Then Cunningham had an October surprise when it came out he had an affair. He declined to speak to the press about it, and the scandal made his approval rating plummet.
Now with both men disliked it has come down in large part to polarization. Many are reluctantly voting for Cunningham and vice versa. Polling shows the race is now more correlated with the Presidential race, and it is hard to see either outperforming their party's nominee substantially. There are also still many undecideds. We will get results fairly early relative to other states in North Carolina, with the State Board of Elections estimating 97% of the final vote will be in on Election Night. Worth noting ballots received by November 9th that were postmarked by Election Day will be counted, after SCOTUS upheld a State Supreme Court ruling affirming the BOE's decision. This could give Democrats a late boost in the state.
My model shows Cunningham with a 57.7% chance of winning, a modest edge but far from ruling Tillis out. It will also be interesting to see if sex scandals still have as big as an impact as they used to.
If Democrats lose North Carolina they still have several options, as well as several options to seat 51 if Tillis loses.
Their next best bet is arguably Georgia's Special Election to serve out the remaining 2-years of the late Johnny Isakson's term. After stepping down due to health concerns Gov. Brian Kemp appointed businesswoman Kelly Loeffler to win back moderate voters. This was rebuked by many in the Trump-wing of the GOP including Trump himself who supported Conservative firebrand Rep. Doug Collins to be appointed to the seat. Now Collins is challenging Loeffler from the right in the Jungle Primary, where there is a run-off if nobody achieves 50% in the first round. Also running on the Democratic side are Reverend Raphael Warnock who is widely seen as the front-runner and was propelled in first by practically the entire Democratic Party coalescing behind him. Joe Libermans son Matt is also running as well as Attorney Ed Tarver on the Dem side, and many Democrats fear they will siphon votes away from Warnock. Earlier concerns were that they would lock Warnock out of the run-off, but with Warnock being seen as a front-runner they now are afraid they will prevent Warnock from avoiding a run-off, and they are likely right. The race will likely go to a run-off.
If a run-off occurs many believe as it historically has in that Democratic turnout will drop, and Republicans will be more favored. However early run-off polling shows Warnock having an edge. Political observers I talked to came to a consensus that Loeffler and Collins trying to both run to the far-right will damage them in a run-off.
Iowa is another prime target, where Sen. Joni Ernst finds herself in hot water against realtor Theresa Greenfield. Greenfield has run on a moderate-esque platform including denouncing some more progressive positions. She was leading the Incumbent for much of the campaign, however Ernst has appeared to pull ahead late in the cycle. However polling is still extremely tight and taking out Republican-leaning polling firms Greenfield leads in the polling average. Polling shows different stories, but most polls show Greenfield outrunning Biden.
Georgia's regular election is also tight where Former Congressional Candidate and filmmaker Jon Ossoff is giving incumbent Republican David Perdue a run for his money. Recent polling has shown a tight race, and with a Libertarian candidate on the ballot a run-off for this race may also occur. My model shows a run-off as the most likely scenario. Perdue would likely hold an edge in a run-off, but run-offs are unpredictable.
Montana is also tight with Democratic Governor Steve Bullock only trailing narrowly against Incumbent Steve Daines. Early voting data has shown Democratic Countries and younger people turning out strong in Montana, which has helped Bullock in my model. Daines has a 60.7% chance of winning in my model, which could mean either side wins.
There are many more tight Senate races such as Kansas, South Carolina, Alaska. However they are seen more as reach targets for Democrats, and will almost certainly not be the fiftieth or fifty-first seat.
Democrats also have to defend Incumbents in swingy Minnesota, Michigan, and New Hampshire. However only Michigan seems remotely competitively, and even then Incumbent Gary Peters is seen as having a large edge.
House-Michigan's 8th Congressional District
The House unlike the Presidency and Senate is not seen as particularly competitive, however Republicans think they have a chance. Narrowing Democrats majority is possible, but getting an outright majority is very difficult in this environment. My model shows a chance of a Republican-controlled House at 3.3% with Democrats having a 96.1% chance of control and a 0.6% chance of a tie.
If there is a crazy red wave and Republicans are looking for House control then my model shows Michigan's 8th Congressional District as their 218th seat. The seat comprises Democratic-heavy Lansing before wrapping east to take in the ruby-red Detroit exurbs. In 2018 U.S. Intelligence Official Elissa Slotkin flipped the seat blue riding on a large win in Lansing and cutting the margins in the Republican-heavy portions of the District. Now Republicans are running Paul Junge, a former local news anchor and Trump administration Immigration Official. He has run a decent campaign, but the race got attention when Slotkin attacked Junge for bringing up her mother in a spar over healthcare at a debate. The seat should go to Junge if you look at raw data, but Slotkin is a good fit and 2020 is not seen as the year Republicans flip the House back.
Slotkin has a 94% chance in my model, slightly lower than the chances Democrats have at retaining House control.
The 219th seat for Republicans to gain control instead of tying the chamber to get a power-sharing arrangement is according to my model Iowa's 2nd Congressional District. In the southeast corner of Iowa, the 2nd consists of rural farm-towns, liberal University of Iowa, and the city of Davenport. The popular Democratic Incumbent is retiring and both major party's candidates are current or former Iowa State Senators. Democrat Rita Hart has an edge, however a poll on Halloween by the reputable Ann Selzer showed Republican Marianette Miller-Meeks up 41-40. The sample size was small and many scrutinized the Congressional results in the poll. However the race could be close, and the model shows it as Republicans 219th seat. One could reckon it will be closer, and the model is largely using built-in statistics such as partisan registration stats. However the general feeling is Hart will win.
There are many opportunities for both parties to gain seats in the House, and Democrats are expected to make House gains. However Republicans could make gains, especially if Trump wins.
State Legislatures
These were much harder to predict, and for these projections a general model was not used, instead I manually looked at key contests and looked at the median seat in several factors such as fundraising, partisan composition (when applicable), and candidate quality among other things. Here is what I believe each key race will be for determining control of a chamber, but the median seat could be any key seat in a legislature. A great tool for analyzing state legislature chambers is CNalysis.
New Hampshire Senate
Senate District 24- In 2018 Democrat Tom Sherman flipped the 24th resting along the Gulf of Maine. The District while narrowly backing Hillary Clinton in 2016, is more down ballot GOP friendly. That same night Republicans held SD-24. Looking at 2020 just like the chamber itself is likely to stay Democratic, so will SD-24 However if the GOP are having a good night they might flip the chamber back, as well as the 24th.
Pennsylvania State House
House District 105- In the Harrisburg suburbs, the 105th is a GOP seat. Voting for Trump by roughly 8-points the seat has strong Republican roots, as does Dauphin County historically. With Democrats expected to net around 5 seats in the Philly suburbs and one in the Pittsburgh exurbs (due to the Republican having a scandal and a Conservative third-party candidate) Democrats would only need three more State House seats. There are more toss-up seats in the Philly suburbs that Dems can win and a couple toss-ups in the Pittsburgh area. However Democrats are expected to lose a State House seat in a +34 Trump seat due to the Incumbent Democrat retiring. This means if Democrats do really well in the suburbs or there are some rural surprises Democrats have a shot. The 105th is a suburban seat in which Democrats have a shot, but would need a wave. That is why Republicans remain the slight favorite for the gerrymandered State House.
Pennsylvania State Senate
Senate District 13- The State Senate is seen as slightly more competitive (in large part due to Democrats winning a special election in the Pittsburgh suburbs last year) it is no easy feat, especially after Democratic State Senator Joe Yudichak became an Independent caucusing with Republicans. Now Democrats need to flip two seats they are favored in, carry a toss-up seat centered in Harrisburg, and the 13th. Based in Lancaster County the 13th is heavily Republican, but progressive Janet King is trying to flip the seat. Winning would require large Democratic margins out of blue Lancaster City and not getting romped in the rural portions of the seat. As with the chamber Republicans are slightly favored in the 13th, but if a blue wave occurs or Yudichak comes back to the Dems they have a good shot.
West Virginia State Senate
Senate District 2- West Virginia's Upper Chamber could revert back to Democrats despite it's heavy Republican lean federally as Democrats still do modest down-ballot. In the 2nd Republican Mike Maroney was the favorite, until it came out he solicited prostitutes, and then an arrest warrant was issued against him for using the prefix Doctor on campaign signs without saying which kind of doctor he is, which violates state law. Will partisanship save him?
North Carolina State House
House District 83- In the Charlotte suburbs, Democrat Gail Young is trying to flip the historically Republican State House seat. Trump won HD-38 57-39%, but Incumbent compared Abraham Lincoln to Hitler, denies climate change, believes Obergefell V. Hodges should be ignored, and called for the shooting of protesters. However partisan fundamentals make winning the seat just like the House hard. Another note-in 2018 in a slightly altered seat (the State SCOTUS demanded new fair maps for both NC state legislature chambers after the 2018 midterms) Young held Pittman to a <6% win.
ECaliberSeven's informative precinct map shows partisan divides are present in the District
Senate District 24- In yet another key Senate seat numbered #24, this seat takes in rural areas between Greensboro and Raleigh, and is fairly Republican. However Veteran J.D. Wooten is making the race close. The 54-42% Trump seat is the site of Alamance County, where recently a GOTV rally ended in the local Republican Sheriff having his deputies pepper-spray rally-goers. If Wooten wins in his rematch, Dems have a good shot of winning State Senate control and having a say in redistricting (the Governor is powerless in redistricting decisions in North Carolina).
Michigan State House
House District 45- In suburban and Dem-trending Oakland County the Rochester Hills based 45th will be a prime test for control of the chamber as well as the extent of Oaklands blue shift. Dems need four more seats for a majority, and the 45th may be that 4th seat.
Minnesota State Senate
Senate District 56- Arguably the most vulnerable chamber for control flipping is the Minnesota State Senate. Democrats are favored to flip around 3-4 seats, but only need two for a majority, assuming notable Tik-Toker Matt Little wins re-election in his Republican-leaning seat in the southern Minneapolis suburbs. The 48-44 Clinton 56th is prime ground for a Democratic flip. The suburban seat is shifting to the left, and arch-homophobe Dan Hall who took a, "Victory Lap" when a conversion therapy ban was defeated is a controversial politician. He is expected to lose and thus give Democrats full control of Minnesota state Government.
Iowa State House
House District 16- In the Omaha suburbs the Trump-won 16th is a toss-up, as is State House control. If Democrats flip the chamber they can block some measures of the Conservative Iowa Governor and Senate. Many toss-up seats in the House are in rural and suburban areas. The 16th is an open seat and Dems are investing in the District on behalf of Democratic nominee Jen Pellant.
Texas State House
House District 67- The State House was drawn by Republicans to keep Republicans in power, but due to suburban shifts the redistricting backfired with Beto O'Rourke carrying a bare majority of State House seats despite losing by around 3-points in his Senate bid against Ted Cruz. One of those seats was the Plano-based 67th. The +5.5 O'Rourke District is represented by Conservative and heavy-fundraiser Jeff Leach. Democrats selected education advocate Lorenzo Sanchez as their nominee, besting the more moderate Tom Adair in the Democratic primary. Both Leach and Sanchez have amassed large fundraising chests, and the race is close with CNalysis giving Dems the advantage. The race will be close, and control for the Texas State House may be the biggest contest for redistricting (Texas is poised to gain House seats, and Democrats want to block a Republican gerrymander).
Alaska State House
House District 1- Alaska is interesting in the sense that a coalition that consists of Democrats, Republicans, and Independents have a bipartisan majority in the lower chamber. This has been a barrier against the Conservative State Senate and Republican Governor Mike Dunleavy. The coalition was expected to be returned until two Republican coalition members announced they would support the Republican minority and partner with non-coalition Republicans to make a sole Republican majority. One of those two members Bart Lebon won his Fairbanks-based State House seat by exactly one vote in 2018. Now Democrats are mad, and are working to dispatch him. A Democrat and an Independent are also favored to flip two Anchorage-held Republican seats. If those two seats flip and Lebon loses then the coalition has a fighting chance. Another Republican coalition member Louise Stutes has sent mixed signals on if she will continue to support the coalition, and whomever she supports might determine control.
Tipping point races will not 100% mean a definite result overall, but will be good benchmarks into seeing how the Election will ultimately go. These most likely with the exception of the President and Senate be the ultimate median seats, but will likely be close to the median seat.


dailykos--2020-11-03--If Trump Will Stop at Nothing, Will Nothing Stop Him?, by Steven Rosenfeld

Will the election and legal system withstand the coming test ?
The voters are speaking in volumes .
Will courts and state and federal leaders stand by voters or with Trump ?
This article was produced by , a of the Independent Media Institute .
As President Trump jetted to 17 rallies mostly at regional airports in swing states in his sprint to Election Day , he has campaigned as he has governed .
Trump reeled off countless untruths about every topic—perhaps most importantly , about voting and counting votes this November .
At a rally in Philadelphia , Pennsylvania @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ballots and nearly 80 percent have been returned as of November 2 , and the rest could arrive in the mail as late as Friday and still be counted if postmarked by Election Day , Trump smeared the Democratic-led city government .
“ Are they going to mysteriously find more ballots ” after polls close , he said .
“ Strange things have been known to happen , especially in Philadelphia.
” At a rally in Dubuque , Iowa , Trump said , “ We should know the result of the election on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 3 , ” even though it routinely took some states days or weeks to certify their election results—before 2020 ’ s record volume of absentee ballots .
Still , he erroneously said , “ That ’ s the way it ’ s been , and that ’ s the way it should be.
” And at a North Carolina rally , Trump told reporters on the sidelines that it didn ’ t matter what the preliminary vote counts were—even though they could come late on Tuesday night or after midnight on Wednesday for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Arizona .
“ As soon as that election ’ s over , we ’ re going in with our lawyers , ” Trump said .
The big question looming over these assertions is not whether a record number of voters will be heard after voting ends on November 3 , but whether America ’ s electoral system—its state-run elections , state and federal courts , and elected leadership—can or will stand up to Trump .
Bluntly , if Trump has shown he will stop at nothing to retain power , will nothing stop @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and Mississippi and Florida and Pennsylvania , over hundreds of rallies in one arena after another , ” wrote Carl Hoffman in Liar ’ s Circus , a new book profiling Trump ’ s rallies and his most loyal followers .
“ Every few days he would dangle [ introduce ] the politicians who could impeach him or threaten him in front of that hungry mob .
If you wondered why no senator would challenge him , why no one would speak up , there it was.
” As the 2020 election moves @ @ @ @ @ @ @ well-founded fears are overshadowing what should otherwise be celebrated as pro-democracy achievements .
More voters than ever have sought to be heard despite a pandemic .
And election officials have made historic efforts to restructure the process to serve voters and accommodate this surge .
It is not just routine election jitters behind the current doubts .
If a democracy is based more on a nation of laws than on a battle of wills , the simmering worry is that the rules of elections will not hold—as Trump repeatedly asserts that he is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ he wins .
The way Trump ’ s narrative moves from the podium at rallies and from his late-night tweets into the electoral arena is via disinformation from his campaign and Republican publicists , and via the lawsuits that they have filed—many of which echo the same false or novel assertions .
There is no shortage of caustic rhetoric , starting with Trump ’ s false claim that the vote counting should stop on Tuesday night .
Trump has also implied that federal agents would intervene on his behalf .
The reality is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , run elections .
Their long-set procedures end when the tasks are done .
Moreover , the federal Justice Department can not step in and reject or seize ballots as they are being counted .
If anything , ever since the Supreme Court gutted the DOJ ’ s main enforcement tools in a 2013 decision , the DOJ has less power than it once had to intervene in elections .
But these kinds of details are not widely known and get overshadowed by Trump ’ s propaganda .
What unfolds in court is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ mirrors reality neatly , Trump ’ s campaign and Republican Party lawyers have conjured arguments that claim to invoke new and purportedly serious constitutional issues even though their purpose is to disqualify Democratic voting blocs .
Behind these strategies is a hope that federal appellate courts , and possibly the Supreme Court , will step in and make seemingly narrow rulings that can flip swing states .
There have been several themes in the litigation thus far .
Echoing the Supreme Court ’ s primary holding in Bush v. Gore , which awarded @ @ @ @ @ @ @ W. Bush , was the standard that like ballots have to be treated in a like manner .
Where that ideal collides with reality is local election jurisdictions in many states—usually at the county level—do not have the same voting machinery , ballot-processing protocols , poll worker training , etc .
Thus , Trump ’ s lawyers have filed many lawsuits asserting “ equal protection ” violations .
Voters will shortly see if these claims will impede processing ballots and counting votes .
The next big claim is an ideological libertarian assertion cloaked @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Constitution only empowers state legislatures to set the rules for elections with federal candidates .
This new notion has roiled the rules surrounding the last date that an absentee ballot can be received in the mail by local election officials and still count .
At the end of October , federal appeals courts and a majority of conservative justices on the U.S. Supreme Court have cited this novel doctrine in cases involving the ballot-return deadlines in Wisconsin , Pennsylvania , North Carolina and Minnesota .
( In Pennsylvania and Minnesota , ballots arriving @ @ @ @ @ @ @ legal challenges are expected .
In North Carolina , the state election board has not taken that proactive step . )
This libertarian view of independent state legislative authority is also the argument cited by the Texas GOP to try to disqualify more than 100,000 ballots in Harris County—where Houston is located—cast at new drive-through voting centers .
( That case began its federal court review on Monday after Texas ’ Supreme Court would not disqualify the ballots .
A district court rejected the GOP ’ s claims , but it is likely @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is not just the presidency , but also several Texas legislative seats that may end the GOP ’ s long-held state political majority . )
There ’ s another batch of Republican lawsuits that are not just fishing expeditions to unearth ballot-handling problems—which always occur , but usually don ’ t scale to affect results .
These suits , such as a lawsuit filed on October 27 by the Republican National Committee , Trump campaign and Nevada Republican Party against officials in Clark County—which includes Las Vegas—broadly make hyped-up claims that seek to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
But more strategically , they seek to disrupt ballot processing and vote counting , and put pro-GOP judges in charge .
The RNC lawsuit , for example , demands “ [ i ] mage files , documents , records , and information showing ( 1 ) each voter ’ s signature on envelopes containing mail ballots and/or absentee ballots.
” Those signatures , crucially , have never been public documents—they ’ re confidential like Social Security numbers .
But the RNC wants them , as well as signatures “ on record with @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Registrar ’ s office , the Counting Board , and/or any other affiliated entity against which signatures on envelopes… are verified.
” What the GOP is seeking to do is challenge the results ahead of the official process in the swing county in a swing state .
( On Monday , a Nevada state judge rejected a related lawsuit to , among other things , allow the GOP to independently videotape the “ ballot process ” [ county officials were doing it ] and give observers freer rein inside election offices .
The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ no evidence ” of signature matching errors nor partisan bias with handling ballots . )
The ruling will likely be appealed .
These kinds of procedural details are tailormade for litigation because the process of vetting absentee ballots and counting votes is intricate .
Every step becomes a potential turning point where a molehill can be characterized as a mountainous failing .
That disinformation dynamic had been modeled by President Trump and his handlers for months .
However , what is genuinely worrisome as the voting ends and the counting begins on Election @ @ @ @ @ @ @ might play to tilt outcomes—especially as Trump-appointed justices embrace novel legal theories that elevate constitutional abstractions about the real-world interests of record numbers of voters who cast ballots in a pandemic .
The bottom-line question is what forces will stand up to Trump and his enablers after he says on election night that he has won , no matter what the partial unofficial results may be .
During Election Day , there will be thousands of election protection legal volunteers seeking to help voters cast ballots and reporting unlawful intimidation .
There will @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ groups taking pictures of poll tapes as local precincts close—to ensure the reported electronic results match .
There will be groups taking screenshots of government websites reporting results to ensure that what ’ s reported is accurate or quickly flagged .
State officials in swing states are also being encouraged to save the digital images of ballots created by their vote-counting scanners in case more evidence is needed to verify the results .
But hovering above what may emerge as an extensive independent evidence trail to counter Trump ’ s statements is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Will state election officials vociferously defend their process and show evidence of accurate counts ?
Will federal courts embrace legal theories that diminish 2020 ’ s voters ?
Will the Supreme Court intervene in an election year where constitutional scholars have said that they have already erred ?
If Trump doesn ’ t win the election legitimately , who will stop him from seizing power illegitimately ?
“ The American system has never figured out quite how to respond to a president who gives the conspiracy theorists of QAnon a hearing at @ @ @ @ @ @ @ New York Times ’ Peter Baker in a Monday analysis .
“ [ T ] he Trump presidency has been a factory of falsehood from the start , churning out distortions , conspiracy theories and brazen lies at an assembly-line pace.
” Steven Rosenfeld is the editor and chief correspondent of , a of the Independent Media Institute .
He has reported for National Public Radio , Marketplace , and Christian Science Monitor Radio , as well as a wide range of progressive publications including Salon , AlterNet , the American Prospect , @ @ @ @

rss@dailykos.com (Independent Media Institute)

Will the election and legal system withstand the coming test? The voters are speaking in volumes. Will courts and state and federal leaders stand by voters or with Trump?
By Steven Rosenfeld
This article was produced by Voting Booth , a project of the Independent Media Institute.
As President Trump jetted to 17 rallies mostly at regional airports in swing states in his sprint to Election Day, he has campaigned as he has governed. Trump reeled off countless untruths about every topic—perhaps most importantly, about voting and counting votes this November.
At a rally in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, where 437,000 voters had requested absentee ballots and nearly 80 percent have been returned as of November 2, and the rest could arrive in the mail as late as Friday and still be counted if postmarked by Election Day, Trump smeared the Democratic-led city government. “Are they going to mysteriously find more ballots” after polls close, he said. “Strange things have been known to happen, especially in Philadelphia.”
At a rally in Dubuque, Iowa, Trump said, “We should know the result of the election on Nov. 3, the evening of Nov. 3,” even though it routinely took some states days or weeks to certify their election results—before 2020’s record volume of absentee ballots. Still, he erroneously said, “That’s the way it’s been, and that’s the way it should be.”
And at a North Carolina rally, Trump told reporters on the sidelines that it didn’t matter what the preliminary vote counts were—even though they could come late on Tuesday night or after midnight on Wednesday for two key swing states, Florida and Arizona. “As soon as that election’s over, we’re going in with our lawyers,” Trump said.
The big question looming over these assertions is not whether a record number of voters will be heard after voting ends on November 3, but whether America’s electoral system—its state-run elections, state and federal courts, and elected leadership—can or will stand up to Trump. Bluntly, if Trump has shown he will stop at nothing to retain power, will nothing stop him?
“It happened in Kentucky and Mississippi and Florida and Pennsylvania, over hundreds of rallies in one arena after another,” wrote Carl Hoffman in Liar’s Circus, a new book profiling Trump’s rallies and his most loyal followers. “Every few days he would dangle [introduce] the politicians who could impeach him or threaten him in front of that hungry mob. If you wondered why no senator would challenge him, why no one would speak up, there it was.”
As the 2020 election moves from casting ballots to counting votes, well-founded fears are overshadowing what should otherwise be celebrated as pro-democracy achievements. More voters than ever have sought to be heard despite a pandemic. And election officials have made historic efforts to restructure the process to serve voters and accommodate this surge.
It is not just routine election jitters behind the current doubts. If a democracy is based more on a nation of laws than on a battle of wills, the simmering worry is that the rules of elections will not hold—as Trump repeatedly asserts that he is above these laws, unless or until he wins.
The way Trump’s narrative moves from the podium at rallies and from his late-night tweets into the electoral arena is via disinformation from his campaign and Republican publicists, and via the lawsuits that they have filed—many of which echo the same false or novel assertions.
There is no shortage of caustic rhetoric, starting with Trump’s false claim that the vote counting should stop on Tuesday night. Trump has also implied that federal agents would intervene on his behalf. The reality is that states, not the federal government, run elections. Their long-set procedures end when the tasks are done.
Moreover, the federal Justice Department cannot step in and reject or seize ballots as they are being counted. If anything, ever since the Supreme Court gutted the DOJ’s main enforcement tools in a 2013 decision, the DOJ has less power than it once had to intervene in elections. But these kinds of details are not widely known and get overshadowed by Trump’s propaganda.
What unfolds in court is another matter. Because the law never mirrors reality neatly, Trump’s campaign and Republican Party lawyers have conjured arguments that claim to invoke new and purportedly serious constitutional issues even though their purpose is to disqualify Democratic voting blocs. Behind these strategies is a hope that federal appellate courts, and possibly the Supreme Court, will step in and make seemingly narrow rulings that can flip swing states.
There have been several themes in the litigation thus far. Echoing the Supreme Court’s primary holding in Bush v. Gore, which awarded the presidency in 2000 to Republican George W. Bush, was the standard that like ballots have to be treated in a like manner. Where that ideal collides with reality is local election jurisdictions in many states—usually at the county level—do not have the same voting machinery, ballot-processing protocols, poll worker training, etc. Thus, Trump’s lawyers have filed many lawsuits asserting “equal protection” violations. Voters will shortly see if these claims will impede processing ballots and counting votes.
The next big claim is an ideological libertarian assertion cloaked as a constitutional law issue—that the U.S. Constitution only empowers state legislatures to set the rules for elections with federal candidates. This new notion has roiled the rules surrounding the last date that an absentee ballot can be received in the mail by local election officials and still count.
At the end of October, federal appeals courts and a majority of conservative justices on the U.S. Supreme Court have cited this novel doctrine in cases involving the ballot-return deadlines in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Minnesota. (In Pennsylvania and Minnesota, ballots arriving after Tuesday are being segregated, where legal challenges are expected. In North Carolina, the state election board has not taken that proactive step.)
This libertarian view of independent state legislative authority is also the argument cited by the Texas GOP to try to disqualify more than 100,000 ballots in Harris County—where Houston is located—cast at new drive-through voting centers. (That case began its federal court review on Monday after Texas’ Supreme Court would not disqualify the ballots. A district court rejected the GOP’s claims, but it is likely to be appealed. At issue there is not just the presidency, but also several Texas legislative seats that may end the GOP’s long-held state political majority.)
There’s another batch of Republican lawsuits that are not just fishing expeditions to unearth ballot-handling problems—which always occur, but usually don’t scale to affect results. These suits, such as a lawsuit filed on October 27 by the Republican National Committee, Trump campaign and Nevada Republican Party against officials in Clark County—which includes Las Vegas—broadly make hyped-up claims that seek to cast the entire voting process as illegitimate. But more strategically, they seek to disrupt ballot processing and vote counting, and put pro-GOP judges in charge.
The RNC lawsuit, for example, demands “[i]mage files, documents, records, and information showing (1) each voter’s signature on envelopes containing mail ballots and/or absentee ballots.” Those signatures, crucially, have never been public documents—they’re confidential like Social Security numbers. But the RNC wants them, as well as signatures “on record with the Clark County Election Department, the Registrar’s office, the Counting Board, and/or any other affiliated entity against which signatures on envelopes… are verified.”
What the GOP is seeking to do is challenge the results ahead of the official process in the swing county in a swing state. (On Monday, a Nevada state judge rejected a related lawsuit to, among other things, allow the GOP to independently videotape the “ballot process” [county officials were doing it] and give observers freer rein inside election offices. The ruling noted that the GOP presented “no evidence” of signature matching errors nor partisan bias with handling ballots.) The ruling will likely be appealed.
These kinds of procedural details are tailormade for litigation because the process of vetting absentee ballots and counting votes is intricate. Every step becomes a potential turning point where a molehill can be characterized as a mountainous failing. That disinformation dynamic had been modeled by President Trump and his handlers for months.
However, what is genuinely worrisome as the voting ends and the counting begins on Election Day is what role the federal courts might play to tilt outcomes—especially as Trump-appointed justices embrace novel legal theories that elevate constitutional abstractions about the real-world interests of record numbers of voters who cast ballots in a pandemic.
The bottom-line question is what forces will stand up to Trump and his enablers after he says on election night that he has won, no matter what the partial unofficial results may be.
During Election Day, there will be thousands of election protection legal volunteers seeking to help voters cast ballots and reporting unlawful intimidation. There will be legions of volunteers and numerous citizens’ groups taking pictures of poll tapes as local precincts close—to ensure the reported electronic results match. There will be groups taking screenshots of government websites reporting results to ensure that what’s reported is accurate or quickly flagged. State officials in swing states are also being encouraged to save the digital images of ballots created by their vote-counting scanners in case more evidence is needed to verify the results.
But hovering above what may emerge as an extensive independent evidence trail to counter Trump’s statements is the backbone of the electoral system itself. Will state election officials vociferously defend their process and show evidence of accurate counts? Will federal courts embrace legal theories that diminish 2020’s voters? Will the Supreme Court intervene in an election year where constitutional scholars have said that they have already erred? If Trump doesn’t win the election legitimately, who will stop him from seizing power illegitimately?
“The American system has never figured out quite how to respond to a president who gives the conspiracy theorists of QAnon a hearing at the White House,” wrote the New York Times’ Peter Baker in a Monday analysis. “[T]he Trump presidency has been a factory of falsehood from the start, churning out distortions, conspiracy theories and brazen lies at an assembly-line pace.”


dailykos--2020-11-05--I Know Caesar. Caesar is a friend of mine. Donald Trump, you're no Caesar!

This is no doubt small potatoes in the grand scheme of things , but as a classical history buff this bit of facile glibness from Politico ( or , as Charlie Pierce likes to call it , Tiger Beat On the Potomac ) deserves to be called out .
Tim Elliot is credited as “ an ancient historian ” but if I ’ d turned this in as a paper in any of my Roman history classes back in the day I ’ d have probably gotten an F and a serious dressing down from my professor .
Where to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , stop .
First off , there is no universe in which Julius Caesar was the Donald Trump of his day , or Trump the Caesar of ours .
Caesar was one of history ’ s great political and military tacticians , and in the brief periods he had the time to do so , an able administrator .
Secondly , the Roman Republic was not “ on a glide path to destruction ” when Caesar decided the die was cast and crossed the Rubicon .
It was dead .
Gone .
Buried @ @ @ @ @ @ @ horror movie .
The only real question at this point was whether Caesar or his fellow strong man Pompey would seize overall control of the Roman state and what that state would look like once the victor consolidated his power .
So right off the bat we ’ re drifting into alternate history .
At the heart of this democracy was a battleground of public opinion and ideology , the contio—the public meeting held in the forum in the shadow of Rome ’ s most sacred monuments .
This raucous organ of direct @ @ @ @ @ @ @ As the official means by which legislation and public information were put to the people and debated , it was not a place for the faint of heart ; there are stories of shouts at the contio so loud they knocked birds out of the sky—and the risk of riots or even lynching was ever-present .
Yet for centuries , the contio was constrained by a set of norms—known as mos maiorum , or the “ ways of the ancestors ” —that balanced the sovereignty of the people with the authority of the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ idea that the “ the people ” ever had any real levers of power in republican Rome is a sheer fantasy .
There were civil wars fought in the Republican era over this and yes , the plebs theoretically did well .
But the Roman Senate ultimately won the war by giving the people an illusion of power .
I would have liked Elliot to have explored this rather than deliver a glib parallel between Trump and Caesar , because there are real lessons we could have drawn .
I could go on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ point I think the horse is dead and beaten six feet under .
So why does this matter ?
I love and study history because it does has lessons to teach—if we ask the right questions and draw the right lessons .
An article like Elliot ’ s , which is little better than clickbait , manifestly does not .
At best , by calling Julius Caesar the Donald Trump of Rome , burnishes the Trump myth rather than diminishes it .
More importantly , history represents our collective memory .
How we @ @ @ @ @ @ @ tell , and how we tell it matters .
And the lessons we glean in how to chart our own course forward matters .
That ’ s why I feel it is important to clap back at articles like this one .
Even if you agree with the note of warning and caution Tim Elliot is trying to sound in his piece—and I do agree with him to that extent—you have to get it right and not just be happy with eyeballs on a middlebrow politics website .
If you want a far @ @ @ @ @ @ @ own conclusion , I highly recommend Mike Duncan ’ s podcast A History of Rome .
His ongoing followup , Revolutions is fantastic as well .
Be well , folks , and try not to freak out too badly !

This is no doubt small potatoes in the grand scheme of things, but as a classical history buff this bit of facile glibness from Politico (or, as Charlie Pierce likes to call it, Tiger Beat On the Potomac) deserves to be called out. Tim Elliot is credited as “an ancient historian” but if I’d turned this in as a paper in any of my Roman history classes back in the day I’d have probably gotten an F and a serious dressing down from my professor.
Where to begin? How about here:
The Donald Trump of his day, Julius Caesar, promised to return Rome to an imagined ancient glory—but instead constructed himself a throne, bulldozing democratic norms, ignoring checks on his power and eroding political debate. Rome chose to follow Caesar, putting the famed Republic on a glide path to destruction.
Alright, stop. First off, there is no universe in which Julius Caesar was the Donald Trump of his day, or Trump the Caesar of ours. Caesar was one of history’s great political and military tacticians, and in the brief periods he had the time to do so, an able administrator.
Secondly, the Roman Republic was not “on a glide path to destruction” when Caesar decided the die was cast and crossed the Rubicon. It was dead. Gone. Buried like a moldering corpse in a Blumhouse horror movie. The only real question at this point was whether Caesar or his fellow strong man Pompey would seize overall control of the Roman state and what that state would look like once the victor consolidated his power. So right off the bat we’re drifting into alternate history.
Then, there’s this:
At the heart of this democracy was a battleground of public opinion and ideology, the contio—the public meeting held in the forum in the shadow of Rome’s most sacred monuments. This raucous organ of direct democracy was central to the Republic. As the official means by which legislation and public information were put to the people and debated, it was not a place for the faint of heart; there are stories of shouts at the contio so loud they knocked birds out of the sky—and the risk of riots or even lynching was ever-present. Yet for centuries, the contio was constrained by a set of norms—known as mos maiorum, or the “ways of the ancestors”—that balanced the sovereignty of the people with the authority of the state.
Yeah. No. The idea that the “the people” ever had any real levers of power in republican Rome is a sheer fantasy. There were civil wars fought in the Republican era over this and yes, the plebs theoretically did well. But the Roman Senate ultimately won the war by giving the people an illusion of power. I would have liked Elliot to have explored this rather than deliver a glib parallel between Trump and Caesar, because there are real lessons we could have drawn.
I could go on. At length. But at this point I think the horse is dead and beaten six feet under. So why does this matter? I love and study history because it does has lessons to teach—if we ask the right questions and draw the right lessons. An article like Elliot’s, which is little better than clickbait, manifestly does not. At best, by calling Julius Caesar the Donald Trump of Rome, burnishes the Trump myth rather than diminishes it.
More importantly, history represents our collective memory. How we remember it matters. Whose story we tell, and how we tell it matters. And the lessons we glean in how to chart our own course forward matters. That’s why I feel it is important to clap back at articles like this one. Even if you agree with the note of warning and caution Tim Elliot is trying to sound in his piece—and I do agree with him to that extent—you have to get it right and not just be happy with eyeballs on a middlebrow politics website.
If you want a far better take on Rome to reach your own conclusion, I highly recommend Mike Duncan’s podcast A History of Rome. His ongoing followup, Revolutions is fantastic as well. Be well, folks, and try not to freak out too badly!


dailykos--2020-11-05--Winston84: A High-Minded Collection Of Low-Brow Racists and Climate Deniers

We were considering shoving yet more evidence of RealClearEnergy ’ s in your face again today , as yesterday all five of the Recommended Stories were from fossil-fueled hacks- including two from Rupert Darwall !
But then we stumbled upon something a bit more interesting , a new website promising to be a one-stop shop for all your banned-from-Big-Tech content , .
Oh-so-subtly named for 1984 ’ s main character , it ’ s a project of the Center for American Greatness , a pro-Trump group so rabidly racist that a columnist at the conservative it “ a trash organization @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s “ virtue ” of at least being “ honest about its neo-Nazi intentions.
” Yikes .
And indeed , tells of the sort of important , free speech warriors it ’ s going to highlight .
Here ’ s a hint : It 's not the speech of environmentalists murdered by industry goons , or scientists pushed out of federal positions , or LGBTQ+ media being censored in repressive regimes .
There are five categories in which they divide the nearly 300 entries in the database : Christian Patriot , Climate Skeptic @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , and Western Warrior .
Confused about what those categories mean ?
Here ’ s the breakdown .
First , Christian Patriots are people , who got fired from the far-right Rebel Media for appearing on a podcast of the aforementioned openly neo-nazi Daily Stormer , and Pastor Mark Burns , who once tweeted a cartoon of Hilary Clinton in blackface , then , when pressed about it by MSNBC ’ s , asked where her ancestors are from .
In the second category are the Climate Skeptics , correctly putting people like @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Anthony Watts among the various industry-funded blogs and organizations that get fact checked for repeatedly being wrong about climate science and policy .
These are essentially the deniers who got fact-checked and cried censorship over it .
After that , third , are the Free Speech Allies , like convicted ( and Trump-pardoned ) felon Dinesh D ’ Souza , woman who said Hitler would ’ ve been fine had he kept things limited to Germany Candace Owens , and various fossil-fuel-funded propaganda shops like PragerU and the Dailies Caller , Signal , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the Irreverent Investigators , are COVID-19 deniers , Q-Anon sites , the satirical Babylon Bee , novelty campaign losers Laura Loomer and Michael Shellenberger , Gorilla Mindset author Mike Cernovich , and agent Ben Shapiro .
Then we get to the fifth and final group , the Western Warriors.These people are just the remaining assorted white supremacists like and like Frank Gaffney who use “ western civilization ” as a white power dog whistle .
As for the content on the site , while it ’ s billed as a searchable directory , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ content .
Instead it just points you to the multiple other places where you can find these supposedly censored voices offering up their hate speech or climate denial .
Because really , that ’ s what the five categories can be narrowed down to .
Racists and climate deniers .
Well , okay ... one category .

We were considering shoving yet more evidence of RealClearEnergy’s Kochruption in your face again today, as yesterday all five of the Recommended Stories were from fossil-fueled hacks- including two from Rupert Darwall!
But then we stumbled upon something a bit more interesting, a new website promising to be a one-stop shop for all your banned-from-Big-Tech content, Winston84.com . Oh-so-subtly named for 1984’s main character, it’s a project of the Center for American Greatness, a pro-Trump group so rabidly racist that a columnist at the conservative Washington Examiner called it “a trash organization” that lacks the Daily Stormer’s “virtue” of at least being “honest about its neo-Nazi intentions.” Yikes.
And indeed, the AmGreatness announcement post tells of the sort of important, free speech warriors it’s going to highlight. Here’s a hint: It's not the speech of environmentalists murdered by industry goons, or scientists pushed out of federal positions, or LGBTQ+ media being censored in repressive regimes.
There are five categories in which they divide the nearly 300 entries in the database: Christian Patriot, Climate Skeptic, Free Speech Ally, Irreverent Investigator, and Western Warrior.
Confused about what those categories mean? Here’s the breakdown. First, Christian Patriots are people like Faith Goldy , who got fired from the far-right Rebel Media for appearing on a podcast of the aforementioned openly neo-nazi Daily Stormer, and Pastor Mark Burns, who once tweeted a cartoon of Hilary Clinton in blackface, then, when pressed about it by MSNBC’s Kristen Welker , asked where her ancestors are from.
In the second category are the Climate Skeptics, correctly putting people like Bjorn Lomborg, Judith Curry, and Anthony Watts among the various industry-funded blogs and organizations that get fact checked for repeatedly being wrong about climate science and policy. These are essentially the deniers who got fact-checked and cried censorship over it.
After that, third, are the Free Speech Allies, like convicted (and Trump-pardoned) felon Dinesh D’Souza, woman who said Hitler would’ve been fine had he kept things limited to Germany Candace Owens, and various fossil-fuel-funded propaganda shops like PragerU and the Dailies Caller, Signal, and Wire.
The fourth category, the Irreverent Investigators, are COVID-19 deniers, Q-Anon sites, the satirical Babylon Bee, novelty campaign losers Laura Loomer and Michael Shellenberger, Gorilla Mindset author Mike Cernovich, and unofficial Atlantis real estate agent Ben Shapiro.
Then we get to the fifth and final group, the Western Warriors.These people are just the remaining assorted white supremacists like Jared Taylor and Islamaphobic conspiracy theorists like Frank Gaffney who use “western civilization” as a white power dog whistle.
As for the content on the site, while it’s billed as a searchable directory, it doesn’t actually show any content. Instead it just points you to the multiple other places where you can find these supposedly censored voices offering up their hate speech or climate denial.
Because really, that’s what the five categories can be narrowed down to. Racists and climate deniers.
Well, okay ... one category.


dailykos--2020-11-06--Democrats should take a breath before they (typically) point fingers at each other for victory

Watching Morning Joe today was somewhat amusing because Joe and all his pundits spent their time portraying the current race as a huge set-back for Democrats — which requires a reckoning within the party and , of course , the rejection of any progressive ideas or candidates within the party .
The chatter was sparked in part by reporting on a recent House Democratic conference call , where some moderate and progressive Democrats purportedly clashed with each other over the lack of expected Democratic gains in Congressional races .
This all seems a bit misguided to me for two reasons @ @ @ @ @ @ @ presidency , the House and still possibly the Senate , although they may fall two seats short in the Senate .
Only Democrats could spin this success as a failure .
2 .
Today ’ s Morning Joe was also a perfect representation of another phenomena : only Democrats are supposed to change their approach , fight internally and revamp policies when the country is fairly evenly split between the two parties .
In other words , why — particularly given these election results — is there no talk about how Republicans have @ @ @ @ @ @ @ or how Republicans “ have to learn ” how to win in cities or with non-White voters ?
Democratic leaders need to calm down , enjoy the tremendous success of this election , and project confidence and success to the electorate .
Then follow that up with responsible governance — the true hallmark of the Democratic Party .
There will be time — as there always is — for Democrats to explore and debate some of the internal , but narrow , divisions within the party .
For my two cents , I @ @ @ @ @ @ @ lies in its messaging skills .
For example , I always thought that it was a mistake to wrap up the worthy , nuanced subject of police and criminal justice reform with the slogan “ Defund the Police.
” But that is an argument about rhetoric , not substance .
We do n't need to act like we are a party in disarray — particularly when we just won the presidency , the House and still have a chance at the Senate .
That does n't sound to me like the Democrats have @ @ @ @ @ @

Watching Morning Joe today was somewhat amusing because Joe and all his pundits spent their time portraying the current race as a huge set-back for Democrats — which requires a reckoning within the party and, of course, the rejection of any progressive ideas or candidates within the party. The chatter was sparked in part by reporting on a recent House Democratic conference call, where some moderate and progressive Democrats purportedly clashed with each other over the lack of expected Democratic gains in Congressional races.
This all seems a bit misguided to me for two reasons:
1. Democrats will win the presidency, the House and still possibly the Senate, although they may fall two seats short in the Senate. Only Democrats could spin this success as a failure.
2. Today’s Morning Joe was also a perfect representation of another phenomena: only Democrats are supposed to change their approach, fight internally and revamp policies when the country is fairly evenly split between the two parties.
In other words, why — particularly given these election results — is there no talk about how Republicans have to re-think their message and policies, or how Republicans “have to learn” how to win in cities or with non-White voters?
Democratic leaders need to calm down, enjoy the tremendous success of this election, and project confidence and success to the electorate. Then follow that up with responsible governance — the true hallmark of the Democratic Party.
There will be time — as there always is — for Democrats to explore and debate some of the internal, but narrow, divisions within the party.
For my two cents, I still think the principal deficit for Democrats lies in its messaging skills. For example, I always thought that it was a mistake to wrap up the worthy, nuanced subject of police and criminal justice reform with the slogan “Defund the Police.” But that is an argument about rhetoric, not substance. We don't need to act like we are a party in disarray — particularly when we just won the presidency, the House and still have a chance at the Senate. That doesn't sound to me like the Democrats have a set of losing policies.


dailykos--2020-11-06--Count Every Vote, Damn It!!!!!

Count Every Vote, Damn It!!!!!

You know , I must be living in the damned Twilight Zone or something .
Never in my estimation could we have ever gotten to this level ...
EVER !
I have been alive for seven presidential administrations and studied history of the same .
You know what ?
I can not , no matter how hard I try , can find any president or administration as crazy and out of whack as this one !
I mean , look at it .
A former slick real estate mogul , businessman and reality TV show ( he also had a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ estate the Donald Trump way !
” ) becomes president and in the way that he did as well .
Then goes for four years doing bizarre and whacko things on a daily basis .
More than that , are the people who ‘ adore him ’ .
( Let us adore him is for religious matters , not a maniac ! )
.
Charlottesville and many other incidents have truly made for nothing less than boring and abhorring , both at the same time .
Outrage should have been given when Chump @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Also when he spoke so often about building a wall on the border .
( Did Numbnuts realize that most illegal immigrants come in by plane and boat , and not the Mexican border ? )
And let me tell you , those that do get over the wall do many of the jobs that most Americans won ’ t do for whatever reason .
Normally the money , but also the labor itself .
I know for damned sure that I don ’ t want to go out into a field and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ That is very hard and under paid work !
There are times that Don has had those folks working for him from time to time .
Not that he might have been aware of that , but they did and it isn ’ t something he can refute because it ’ s on record and not ‘ fake news ’ .
By the way , isn ’ t it ‘ fake news ’ to claim a victory when all votes haven ’ t even been counted completely yet ?
Just like saying , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ , when there is still time on clock .
No .
Get a clue !
Losing is part of life , though Assclown doesn ’ t think it applies to him .
Now he goes to court every time someone farts the wrong way or anything item that ‘ displeases him ’ .
Donald John Trump lives in a fantasy world , of which , has effectively become America and the World ’ s nightmare !
That is what elections are about .
We are stockholders in our nation and this affords @ @ @ @ @ @ @ retain the one in charge or do we get someone else to do the job ?
Plain and simple .
I said it in terms that Stump would understand .
He thinks ‘ business ’ ( like pulling troops out of Europe because he was not getting something back from them , like money or favor .
Allowing Vladimir Putin to double his Russian troops all over his Western borders ! )
.
From the start , Trump didn ’ t want to acknowledge , effectively deal with and perhaps , even want @ @ @ @ @ @ @ it came to a point of him really knowing of it and the implications of the same , Trump covered it up because ‘ he didn ’ t want to panic the public ’ .
In other words , there were no actions since it wasn ’ t public or finally known .
He thinks of us as objects and children that must be controlled , not treated as thinking beings capable of not only accepting bad news , but also more than capable of dealing with it , whatever it might be @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is a child in his own way .
He rants , raves and gets upset at the drop of a hat .
Either a person is praised in his realm to no end or is rejected , dejected and called ‘ fucking morons ’ .
The facts that surround him would have gotten so called ‘ normal people ’ convicted over and over again .
They used to call President Bill Clinton ‘ Slick Willy ’ .
Well , President Donald J Trump is ‘ Devious Donny ’ !
Is and always will @ @ @ @ @ @ @ what .
He likes to play by ‘ his rules ’ but not by ‘ other people ’ s rules ’ .
That is why we have elections !
We need to see if 20,000 public lies and all else doesn ’ t bother us or if it does , whichever .
We ( The American People ) get a chance to see if we want to retain the incumbent or have a new regime take over .
Votes bother Trump because it is the ‘ ultimate approval rating ’ .
It says @ @ @ @ @ @ @ still in or history !
At this moment of time , we still don ’ t know .
This last year has been utterly ridiculous and depressing , both .
I am sure that everybody , like me , would like the election to be done and over with already .
Doesn ’ t matter which side one is on , we are Americans and have a right to know what we have decided , one way or another .
As it stands , there are votes to count , votes to be @ @ @ @ @ @ @ quell before everything is said and done with .
Trump jumps the gun and claims ‘ victory ’ .
Biden says that he most likely won .
Neither knows for sure , nor does anybody else .
Meanwhile , if anticipation were money , we ’ d all be millionaires !
Enough !
We want to and even adamantly deserve to know .
Who will be the prez ?
Plain and simple .
It was funny that I mentioned this to my boss at work and she said , “ Isn ’ t @ @ @ @ @ @ @ tally 160 million votes in an evening , yet when it comes to the presidential race , we are saying ‘ it ’ s close ’ !
And , ‘ Hang on , please !
We ’ re still counting ’ .
All I can say to all this is… .
And let ’ s do it while were still young , huh ?
I appreciate the time you took to read all this .
Communication is a good thing and very helpful !
Rock on America and be patient !

You know, I must be living in the damned Twilight Zone or something. Never in my estimation could we have ever gotten to this level...EVER! I have been alive for seven presidential administrations and studied history of the same. You know what? I cannot, no matter how hard I try, can find any president or administration as crazy and out of whack as this one! I mean, look at it. A former slick real estate mogul, businessman and reality TV show (he also had a short lived informercial, “Buy real estate the Donald Trump way!”) becomes president and in the way that he did as well. Then goes for four years doing bizarre and whacko things on a daily basis. More than that, are the people who ‘adore him’. (Let us adore him is for religious matters, not a maniac!). Charlottesville and many other incidents have truly made for nothing less than boring and abhorring, both at the same time. Outrage should have been given when Chump made fun of a handicapped man. Also when he spoke so often about building a wall on the border. (Did Numbnuts realize that most illegal immigrants come in by plane and boat, and not the Mexican border?) And let me tell you, those that do get over the wall do many of the jobs that most Americans won’t do for whatever reason. Normally the money, but also the labor itself. I know for damned sure that I don’t want to go out into a field and pick my own vegetables and fruits! That is very hard and under paid work! There are times that Don has had those folks working for him from time to time. Not that he might have been aware of that, but they did and it isn’t something he can refute because it’s on record and not ‘fake news’. By the way, isn’t it ‘fake news’ to claim a victory when all votes haven’t even been counted completely yet? Just like saying, ‘We win the Super Bowl!’, when there is still time on clock. No. Get a clue! Losing is part of life, though Assclown doesn’t think it applies to him. Now he goes to court every time someone farts the wrong way or anything item that ‘displeases him’. Donald John Trump lives in a fantasy world, of which, has effectively become America and the World’s nightmare!
Delusions are powerful!
That is what elections are about. We are stockholders in our nation and this affords a proxy vote as to whether we retain the one in charge or do we get someone else to do the job? Plain and simple. I said it in terms that Stump would understand. He thinks ‘business’ (like pulling troops out of Europe because he was not getting something back from them, like money or favor. Allowing Vladimir Putin to double his Russian troops all over his Western borders!). From the start, Trump didn’t want to acknowledge, effectively deal with and perhaps, even want to believe anything about COVID-19. When it came to a point of him really knowing of it and the implications of the same, Trump covered it up because ‘he didn’t want to panic the public’. In other words, there were no actions since it wasn’t public or finally known. He thinks of us as objects and children that must be controlled, not treated as thinking beings capable of not only accepting bad news, but also more than capable of dealing with it, whatever it might be. The problem is that the man is a child in his own way. He rants, raves and gets upset at the drop of a hat. Either a person is praised in his realm to no end or is rejected, dejected and called ‘fucking morons’. The facts that surround him would have gotten so called ‘normal people’ convicted over and over again. They used to call President Bill Clinton ‘Slick Willy’. Well, President Donald J Trump is ‘Devious Donny’! Is and always will be from this moment on no matter what. He likes to play by ‘his rules’ but not by ‘other people’s rules’. That is why we have elections! We need to see if 20,000 public lies and all else doesn’t bother us or if it does, whichever.
We (The American People) get a chance to see if we want to retain the incumbent or have a new regime take over. Votes bother Trump because it is the ‘ultimate approval rating’. It says that the citizens have either deemed you still in or history! At this moment of time, we still don’t know.
This last year has been utterly ridiculous and depressing, both. I am sure that everybody, like me, would like the election to be done and over with already. Doesn’t matter which side one is on, we are Americans and have a right to know what we have decided, one way or another. As it stands, there are votes to count, votes to be found and counted and legal issues to quell before everything is said and done with. Trump jumps the gun and claims ‘victory’. Biden says that he most likely won. Neither knows for sure, nor does anybody else. Meanwhile, if anticipation were money, we’d all be millionaires! Enough! We want to and even adamantly deserve to know. Who will be the prez? Plain and simple.
It was funny that I mentioned this to my boss at work and she said, “Isn’t it something else that American Idol can tally 160 million votes in an evening, yet when it comes to the presidential race, we are saying ‘it’s close’! And, ‘Hang on, please! We’re still counting’.
All I can say to all this is….
Count Every Vote, Damn it!!!!!
And let’s do it while were still young, huh?
I appreciate the time you took to read all this. Communication is a good thing and very helpful! Rock on America and be patient!