Polls are Crap

We ’ re all guilty of it .
Any journalist , blogger , candidate , or campaign professional .
To validate a point , we cite some poll that agrees with us , or focuses the thrust of an article .
There ’ s just one problem with that : .0000065 % to .000019 % of registered voters , on any given day , can not speak for the will of a nation .
Today , one ABC News/Washington Post poll says that Trump and Biden are in a “ dead heat ” and that Trump is more “ trusted @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Over the same time period , an IPSOS poll , used by The Daily Beast , shows the exact opposite .
Trump isn ’ t believed by the majority of Americans , even Republicans .
The ABC/WAPO poll is a sample of 1,003 adults , 75 % by cell phone 25 % by landline .
The Ipsos poll reached about the same number of people , over the same period .
Their results show markedly different responses from the survey groups .
Why ?
Polls , Inherently Bias Towards People Who Like Taking @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and completely anecdotal , but I think that there is sufficient evidence that the vast majority of us don ’ t answer telephone polls .
Pollsters like to talk about “ equal predictability ” in their polls .
That is to say , that there is a likelihood , in a random sample , of getting representative numbers of people whose views the poll is trying to capture .
I would contend that there is also “ equal vapidness ” and “ equal ignorance , ” because polls inevitably skew towards people willing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ who has the time ?
Those of us with work , kids , community and social commitments , e.g .
“ a life , ” are really not inclined , on a polling cold-call , to answer the phone , and spend 5-7 minutes answering a bunch of questions .
That is , unless you ’ re : • Bored out of your mind .
• Out of your mind .
• Poll troll ( See Bored/Lonely/Out of Your Mind ) .
• All of the above .
Most of these polls identify @ @ @ @ @ @ @ That also eliminates a huge swath of retired , lonely , bored , out of their mind non-English speakers .
Online Polling Not Much Better Quick-hit polls , like the ones on social media , Daily Kos , or Facebook , can garner larger reactions because they ’ re fairly painless .
They ’ re also completely unscientific , and totally subject to trolling , stuffing , and the bias of the audience that sees the poll .
Kos readers might be , oh , a bit… progressive to liberal ?
Email , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ avoided like the plague , because they usually front solicitations from organizations like ACT , or secretly subscribe you to a raft of spam that you don ’ t want from a bazillion candidates , marketers , and groups .
The only thing more idiotic than modern public polling are the polls of polls .
It ’ s a bit like putting a coat of bronze on a manure pile .
Shinier , but what ’ s underlying is still… yeah .
Since the people polled generally either grind a huge bias , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are so simple that they can ’ t tell the difference between a hand-grenade and a potato , do we REALLY want to drive both our news cycles , and political response to what is deemed to be “ public sentiment , ” based upon answers from people who grind an axe or think that this is seven minutes of their “ fifteen minutes of fame ?
” You might as well go back to the Medieval method of slaughtering a goat , and studying the entrails for signs , and portents .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ Minuscule polls of 800 , 1000 , 3000 people should not be how we guide our destiny .
To really get a sample of Americans that would be truly representative is both unlikely , and it would be prohibitively expensive .
These 1,000-3,000 person polls of a country of just under 330 MILLION people , with 229M citizens , 153M of whom were registered voters in 2018 , is about .0000065 % to .000019 % of registered voters .
To get a more accurate , consistent , representative sample , on any question @ @ @ @ @ @ @ modest 10 % , of citizens would require 22.9M phone calls .
Registered voters ?
15.3M phone calls .
At $ 25-30 per person , per poll , for about 18-20 minutes that would cost $ 459M , , to conduct a 10 % sampling of registered voters .
Even that would still probably not really capture America ’ s sentiment/mood .
We could harness the Internet !
We still can ’ t protect voting , the ultimate “ poll , ” on the web , from Russian hackers , and other bad @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a cost effective way to ask people what they think , more than 50.6M registered voters don ’ t even vote .
75.8M citizens don ’ t/can ’ t vote .
109M people , including children and those on semi-permanent green cards , and medium-term worker visas , who also have a vested interest in what goes on , have no voice at all .
Direct democracy , asking citizens to register , and vote , is difficult enough .
Finding out what they think about this or that ?
Where it is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ?
Sitting here , in our myriad niches , all over a town , state , country , or planet , we have this compulsive need to know how in , or out-of-step that we are with the sentiment of others .
Do we REALLY need to know how many people “ think ” that COVID-19 is “ real ?
” It ’ s real enough when the World Health Organization classifies it as a global pandemic .
If someone is stupid enough to wallow in the Fox News Koolaid tank , in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ minimize the danger , well , there ’ s a guy named Charles Darwin , of whom they ’ re also not a fan , who probably would find their demise , under the laws of natural selection , quite predictable .
Polls are like the lolly that you used to get from the doctor when you were a kid .
You ’ re getting your dose of disturbing reality from the fascist follies of the current administration .
It hurts .
So , finding polls that affirm what a psychotic , self-absorbed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , or that your candidate ( s ) who are going to save the world are actually liked by others , puts a little sugar-coated self approval , that your thinking is “ winning , ” somehow .
“ Hi , I ’ m Brian .
I write op-eds .
Okay , BLOGS .
I haven ’ t used a poll in twelve hours.
” Likewise , for those of us in the digital agora , finding our electronic soap box to stand up on , and shout from , we have to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ go to some twelve-step meetings to shake loose the idea that polls legitimize our analysis .
Those of us who have blogged for a long time know how to hot-link source materials .
When you quote someone who is authoritative , and knowledgeable , from a well-reputed source , like Harvard Medical School , or perhaps , once they have been lifted from Trumpian censorship , the National Institutes of Health , and , oh , the Justice Department , that should be good enough .
Politicians Should Also Just Say ‘ No.
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ this Republic was largely governed by people who understood their charge to care for all of the citizens in their jurisdiction .
Not just their fans , or the ones that agreed with them , or their party .
Being in office , and getting into office , were distinctly different things .
Polls inherently ruin democracy , because they attempt to color , sway , qualify bits of “ sampled ” sentiment into public policy .
In 2012 , as The New Yorker notes , twelve-hundred organizations conducted 37,000 political polls , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ t answer them , which skewed results .
That problem has grown worse for politicians who run for office , who keep trying to find a silver bullet to understanding popularity .
If we had polls , as we do now , in the days of some of our most able leaders , we might either still be British subjects , railing against Southern slavery practices , or a part of the German empire .
Doing what is necessary , and right , should be self-evident .
As we saw with President @ @ @ @ @ @ @ who boldly ousted GOP hacks in 2016 ’ s mid-term elections , Americans can still prize personal character , and authenticity as well as political integrity .
Just Say NO With all due disrespect to the modern Merlins who claim to have their finger on the pulse of American , or global sentiments , it is time for us all to raise our middle finger to their tiny surveys of people who do not represent the breadth of public opinion .

We’re all guilty of it. Any journalist, blogger, candidate, or campaign professional.
To validate a point, we cite some poll that agrees with us, or focuses the thrust of an article.
There’s just one problem with that:
Polls are crap.
.0000065% to .000019% of registered voters, on any given day, cannot speak for the will of a nation.
Tale of Two Opposites
Today, one ABC News/Washington Post poll says that Trump and Biden are in a “dead heat” and that Trump is more “trusted” to handle the COVID-19 crisis. Over the same time period, an IPSOS poll, used by The Daily Beast, shows the exact opposite. Trump isn’t believed by the majority of Americans, even Republicans.
The ABC/WAPO poll is a sample of 1,003 adults, 75% by cell phone 25% by landline. The Ipsos poll reached about the same number of people, over the same period.
Their results show markedly different responses from the survey groups. Why?
Polls, Inherently Bias Towards People Who Like Taking Polls
It’s totally unscientific, and completely anecdotal, but I think that there is sufficient evidence that the vast majority of us don’t answer telephone polls.
Pollsters like to talk about “equal predictability” in their polls. That is to say, that there is a likelihood, in a random sample, of getting representative numbers of people whose views the poll is trying to capture.
I would contend that there is also “equal vapidness” and “equal ignorance,” because polls inevitably skew towards people willing to take the poll.
First, who has the time? Those of us with work, kids, community and social commitments, e.g. “a life,” are really not inclined, on a polling cold-call, to answer the phone, and spend 5-7 minutes answering a bunch of questions.
That is, unless you’re:
Retired.
Lonely.
Bored out of your mind.
Out of your mind.
An extreme partisan/zealot.
Poll troll (See Bored/Lonely/Out of Your Mind).
All of the above.
Most of these polls identify that they are conducted in English. That also eliminates a huge swath of retired, lonely, bored, out of their mind non-English speakers.
Online Polling Not Much Better
Quick-hit polls, like the ones on social media, Daily Kos, or Facebook, can garner larger reactions because they’re fairly painless. They’re also completely unscientific, and totally subject to trolling, stuffing, and the bias of the audience that sees the poll. Kos readers might be, oh, a bit… progressive to liberal?
Email, and professional online political polls, are avoided like the plague, because they usually front solicitations from organizations like ACT, or secretly subscribe you to a raft of spam that you don’t want from a bazillion candidates, marketers, and groups.
537 Flavors of Wrong: Polls of Polls
The only thing more idiotic than modern public polling are the polls of polls. It’s a bit like putting a coat of bronze on a manure pile. Shinier, but what’s underlying is still… yeah.
Lowest Common Denominator Answers
Since the people polled generally either grind a huge bias, enough to waste precious time, or are so simple that they can’t tell the difference between a hand-grenade and a potato, do we REALLY want to drive both our news cycles, and political response to what is deemed to be “public sentiment,” based upon answers from people who grind an axe or think that this is seven minutes of their “fifteen minutes of fame?”
You might as well go back to the Medieval method of slaughtering a goat, and studying the entrails for signs, and portents.
Inclusive Polling Is Too Expensive & Unlikely
Minuscule polls of 800, 1000, 3000 people should not be how we guide our destiny.
To really get a sample of Americans that would be truly representative is both unlikely, and it would be prohibitively expensive. These 1,000-3,000 person polls of a country of just under 330 MILLION people, with 229M citizens, 153M of whom were registered voters in 2018, is about .0000065% to .000019% of registered voters.
To get a more accurate, consistent, representative sample, on any question, let’s say even a modest 10%, of citizens would require 22.9M phone calls. Registered voters? 15.3M phone calls.
At $25-30 per person, per poll, for about 18-20 minutes that would cost $459M, per poll , to conduct a 10% sampling of registered voters.
Even that would still probably not really capture America’s sentiment/mood.
We could harness the Internet! We still can’t protect voting, the ultimate “poll,” on the web, from Russian hackers, and other bad actors.
Assuming that we could find a cost effective way to ask people what they think, more than 50.6M registered voters don’t even vote. 75.8M citizens don’t/can’t vote. 109M people, including children and those on semi-permanent green cards, and medium-term worker visas, who also have a vested interest in what goes on, have no voice at all.
Direct democracy, asking citizens to register, and vote, is difficult enough. Finding out what they think about this or that? Where it is a CONSISTENT answer? Weekly? Daily?
Impossible.
Our Unhealthy Obsession with Popular Opinion
Sitting here, in our myriad niches, all over a town, state, country, or planet, we have this compulsive need to know how in, or out-of-step that we are with the sentiment of others.
It’s kind of a global psychosis.
Do we REALLY need to know how many people “think” that COVID-19 is “real?” It’s real enough when the World Health Organization classifies it as a global pandemic.
If someone is stupid enough to wallow in the Fox News Koolaid tank, in the land of cable make-belief, and minimize the danger, well, there’s a guy named Charles Darwin, of whom they’re also not a fan, who probably would find their demise, under the laws of natural selection, quite predictable.
Polls are like the lolly that you used to get from the doctor when you were a kid.
You’re getting your dose of disturbing reality from the fascist follies of the current administration. It hurts. So, finding polls that affirm what a psychotic, self-absorbed, egomaniacal rat-ba*tard Mr. Trump can be, or that your candidate(s) who are going to save the world are actually liked by others, puts a little sugar-coated self approval, that your thinking is “winning,” somehow.
The Media needs PA (Polls Anonymous)
“Hi, I’m Brian. I write op-eds. Okay, BLOGS. I haven’t used a poll in twelve hours.”
“Hi, Brian.”
Likewise, for those of us in the digital agora, finding our electronic soap box to stand up on, and shout from, we have to find time, perhaps evenings, to go to some twelve-step meetings to shake loose the idea that polls legitimize our analysis.
Those of us who have blogged for a long time know how to hot-link source materials. When you quote someone who is authoritative, and knowledgeable, from a well-reputed source, like Harvard Medical School, or perhaps, once they have been lifted from Trumpian censorship, the National Institutes of Health, and, oh, the Justice Department, that should be good enough.
Politicians Should Also Just Say ‘No.’
For more than two centuries, this Republic was largely governed by people who understood their charge to care for all of the citizens in their jurisdiction. Not just their fans, or the ones that agreed with them, or their party. Being in office, and getting into office, were distinctly different things.
Polls inherently ruin democracy, because they attempt to color, sway, qualify bits of “sampled” sentiment into public policy. In 2012, as The New Yorker notes, twelve-hundred organizations conducted 37,000 political polls, missing huge swaths of people who wouldn’t answer them, which skewed results.
That problem has grown worse for politicians who run for office, who keep trying to find a silver bullet to understanding popularity.
If we had polls, as we do now, in the days of some of our most able leaders, we might either still be British subjects, railing against Southern slavery practices, or a part of the German empire.
Doing what is necessary, and right, should be self-evident. As we saw with President Obama, or the women and men who boldly ousted GOP hacks in 2016’s mid-term elections, Americans can still prize personal character, and authenticity as well as political integrity.
Just Say NO
With all due disrespect to the modern Merlins who claim to have their finger on the pulse of American, or global sentiments, it is time for us all to raise our middle finger to their tiny surveys of people who do not represent the breadth of public opinion.
Polls are crap.


dailykos--2020-03-28--The pupdate you've been waiting for

The pupdate you've been waiting for

Big thanks to thousands that took our poll where we asked what we should name this feller .
If you haven ’ t , there ’ s still time .
Here is is : secure.ngpvan.com/ ...
But for those who ’ ve been following along , here ’ s a much needed pupdate : Thanks , @ TarynChuter .
That really made my day .
The little guy does n't have a chip !
I 'm glad he 's brought as much joy to 182k people as he has to me .
Our Governor has put in place a stay-at-home @ @ @ @ @ @ @ so looks like I 'll have someone to hang with at home !
And during zoom meetings !
What a journey .
pic.twitter.com/s1PVNT5bRD Ã¢ÂÂ Tom Winter ( @ WinterForMT ) March 28 , 2020 So no chip !
But that means the hunt for his humans continues .
I have a feeling I ’ m going to be isolated with this guy for a while .
Luckily Montana has some of the most AMAZING public lands ( so a lot of area to go on long walks in the woods ) .
I @ @ @ @ @ @ @ I hope this makes you smile .
Stay at home .
Stay safe .
And look out for your neighbors .
We ’ ll get through this together .

Big thanks to thousands that took our poll where we asked what we should name this feller.
If you haven’t, there’s still time. Here is is: secure.ngpvan.com/...
But for those who’ve been following along, here’s a much needed pupdate:
x Ok. @TarynChuter made one of the funniest things IÃ¢ÂÂve seen to find out that he is only 18% leg.
Ã¢ÂÂLeg unitÃ¢ÂÂ Ã°ÂÂÂÃ°ÂÂ¤Â£ pic.twitter.com/XI7eOA8W0Q Ã¢ÂÂ Tom Winter (@WinterForMT) March 26, 2020
Thanks, @TarynChuter. That really made my day.
x Personal statement: IÃ¢ÂÂm waiting in the vetÃ¢ÂÂs parking lot to see if this pupper has a chip. IÃ¢ÂÂm really nervous, though I want him to find his family if he wasnÃ¢ÂÂt abandoned. Ã°ÂÂÂ¬ pic.twitter.com/cGFF4LGtvu Ã¢ÂÂ Tom Winter (@WinterForMT) March 28, 2020
x The little guy doesn't have a chip! I'm glad he's brought as much joy to 182k people as he has to me. Our Governor has put in place a stay-at-home order until at least April 10, so looks like I'll have someone to hang with at home! And during zoom meetings! What a journey. pic.twitter.com/s1PVNT5bRD Ã¢ÂÂ Tom Winter (@WinterForMT) March 28, 2020
So no chip! But that means the hunt for his humans continues. I have a feeling I’m going to be isolated with this guy for a while. Luckily Montana has some of the most AMAZING public lands (so a lot of area to go on long walks in the woods).
I know the news is bad, but I hope this makes you smile. Stay at home. Stay safe. And look out for your neighbors. We’ll get through this together.


dailykos--2020-03-27--Silly Republicans, playing with guns

Silly Republicans, playing with guns

I ’ m Col. Moe Davis ( ret . )
, the Democratic nominee for Congress in North Carolina ’ @ @ @ @ @ 25-year veteran of the Air Force .
And these are the Republicans , who are @ @ @ @ @ which one will face me in November , apparently trying to out-gun each other on @ @ @ @ @ funny if it wasn ’ t so pathetic .
I ’ ve handled these weapons @ @ @ @ @ they can do , which is why I don ’ t pretend to be tough @ @ @ @ @ ops and votes .
We need leaders in Washington who can be taken seriously .
@ @ @ @ @ You can find out more about me here and here .

rss@dailykos.com (Moe Davis For Congress)

x The 2 Repubs running to compete against me in Nov. in #NC11 pose with military style guns. I spent 25 years in the military and served in Operation SOUTHERN WATCH before one of them was even born. I didnÃ¢ÂÂt pose, I served. I need your support to win.https://t.co/sJuaSA8fIy pic.twitter.com/DrIBoapthN — Moe Davis (@ColMorrisDavis) March 27, 2020
I’m Col. Moe Davis (ret.), the Democratic nominee for Congress in North Carolina’s 11th District and a 25-year veteran of the Air Force. And these are the Republicans, who are in a runoff to determine which one will face me in November, apparently trying to out-gun each other on Facebook.
It would be funny if it wasn’t so pathetic.
I’ve handled these weapons. I know the damage they can do, which is why I don’t pretend to be tough by brandishing them for photo ops and votes.
We need leaders in Washington who can be taken seriously. Help me get there.
You can find out more about me here and here.


dailykos--2020-03-27--Election Officials Worry About Voting Supply Shortages for Fall, by Steven Rosenfeld

A scramble for ballot paper , printing and high-speed scanners is the latest worry as states eye voting by mail in a pandemic .
This article was produced by , a project of the Independent Media Institute .
Across the country , as voting rights and election policy keep issuing increasingly detailed on how 2020 ’ s elections can continue in a pandemic , the civil servants who actually run elections are facing their version of a shortage of face masks and ventilators .
The first hints of a scramble over voting materials , machinery and manpower were behind-the-scenes actions @ @ @ @ @ @ @ states and territories to primaries until June .
“ Of course , there is nothing ‘ straightforward ’ about ‘ simply ’ postponing an election date , ” Gavin Weise , election data manager for the , which focuses on voting by Americans abroad .
“ All deadlines must be adjusted , materials reprinted with new dates , the workforce rescheduled , and facilities procured .
In many cases new resources are required as election administrators ’ needs change—for example , to deal with the increased volume of mail ballots.
” The prospect @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ( Nevada , Ohio , Rhode Island ) , special elections ( Maryland , California ) or loosening eligibility for mail-in ballots ( Alabama , West Virginia , Delaware , Connecticut , New York , Virginia ) or extending mail-in periods ( Iowa , Alaska , Wyoming ) —has led county and state election administrators to speak of coming supply shortages .
“ We have already contacted the vendor about leasing a high-speed scanner .
Of course , everybody is [ thinking about ] doing that , ” said , Wilson County , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ So , again , we get to the supply chain .
Everyone is asking for the same thing all across the U.S.
I ’ m concerned , are they going to be able to provide all of us with everything we need ?
If we can ’ t get high-speed scanners , then we need people.
” “ I do have some pretty serious concerns about the supply chain , ” said , Escambia County , Florida , supervisor of elections .
“ I know a lot of people that are on this @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
It ’ s not like these discussions have not already begun… Is there enough paper out there ?
Are there enough ballot envelopes to accommodate a massive expansion ?
” Smith ’ s and Stafford ’ s remarks were from a March 25 organized by Washington ’ s to lay out the state of elections in the short term through the fall .
Participants included state and local election administrators , foundation representatives , vendors and congressional staff .
Another speaker was , the state elections director from Oregon , the to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ The challenge is going to be on the back end where we have manual processes that have to happen .
But I think the challenge that I don ’ t hear a lot of people talking about is the supply lines , ” Trout said .
“ What ’ s your procurement process ?
For me , I still don ’ t have authorization to spend the federal funds that were granted in December [ for cybersecurity ] by my legislature yet .
Then it will take me four-to-five months to be @ @ @ @ @ @ @ real things .
People would have to procure central count vote tally systems , paper , [ and ] envelopes .
There ’ s just a lot of logistics that would have to come into place—and that ’ s not even talking about the policies.
” The scramble for supplies goes beyond stocking in-person polling places and absentee ballot drop-off locations with “ disinfectant , gloves and hand sanitizer , as well as additional pens for marking ballots , ” as Weise .
“ The other piece is , who is going to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to be enough envelopes ?
Frankly , I told my counties two weeks ago , ‘ There ’ s going to be more people voting by mail .
You need to get on the phone to your vendor today , your envelope vendor , and make sure that you ’ ve got enough envelopes to get through November , because there ’ s probably going to be a rush , ’ ” Trout said .
“ Some voting systems require specific paper .
Is there going to be enough ?
” These nuts-and-bolts @ @ @ @ @ @ @ election policy circles ponder .
They are not the focus of legislative debates and lawsuits by partisans , which usually concern the that govern how voters are credentialed , how their ballots are validated , and how their votes are counted or rejected .
Those issues , typically called policy , are from the political arena , which is not the same as civil servants doing their jobs .
“ I think the biggest challenge my counties are having right now is with the social distancing in their [ counting ] boards that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ verifying the signatures , ” Trout said .
“ And so we are looking… at setting up some temporary locations , either adjacent to the county election office .
I had suggested maybe high school gymnasiums because the schools are all closed , and then I found out that those were the backups for the hospitals.
” Matthew Weil , the Bipartisan Policy Center ’ s elections project director , said the webinar was to help election managers and policymakers move from the speculation around what needs to happen to specifics about the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 2020 .
The supply chain issues were very real , he said , adding that they weren ’ t the only issues facing election officials .
“ They are in competition with each other over a limited number of machines , ballots , envelopes , etc.
, ” Weil said by email after the briefing .
“ Re : printing stock .
Again , from some election officials , it is the case that some of the high-speed scanners may need a certain stock of paper that is milled only by a few @ @ @ @ @ @ @ states is very long , ” he continued .
“ When the initial HAVA [ Help America Vote Act cyber ] security grants were made available in March 2018 , many in the public were surprised when election officials told them there would be little impact on the 2018 election .
That includes members of Congress .
But the reality is the government procurement processes are lengthy and usually involve soliciting multiple bids .
Whether it can be faster under states of emergency , I don ’ t know.
” Another large area @ @ @ @ @ @ @ administrative rules—that would govern the fine print of voting by mail .
During the e-briefing , Trout listed many examples of decisions that affect how voters , their ballot envelopes and their ballots would be processed .
“ Ultimately , there ’ s a bunch of policy decisions that have to be made , ” he said .
“ Are you going to notify people if their signature doesn ’ t check ?
What are you going to compare the signature against ?
Do you have signatures in your voter file now ?
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ to get them ?
How are you going to authenticate those voters if the signature doesn ’ t match ?
If you decide that you are going to notify people , how are you going to do that ?
How long is that going to take ?
Is that going to impact your supplies ?
Is that going to impact how soon you can get results out ?
” “ Those are all huge policy questions that are going to have to be decided if people are trying to move to a vote-by-mail @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , Trout continued .
“ Those are big policy calls that are going to have to be made .
This election… [ was already ] contentious enough before we added all of this virus stuff to it .
Any time you ’ re changing laws in the middle of a major election , that ’ s just fuel for lawsuits if results end up being close .
You can ’ t just jump into this .
We have to make sure that we do it right.
” Whether those policy questions will be @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is another open question because most legislatures have adjourned either temporarily or for the rest of the term , Weil said .
“ Most could come back , though whether they will focus on election policy concerns over other pressing needs is unknown , ” he said .
“ Some of the changes being made now are through executive orders [ by governors ] and authority given to governors by states of emergency .
When those states of emergency are lifted , if before November , it ’ s not clear whether legislatures @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s actions for November .
It varies by state.
” Beyond questions of whether policies will be updated , and whether there will be supply and personnel shortages—due to the need for additional poll workers to process a surge in absentee ballots—are still other concerns .
Even if election policy changes were made , election workers would need training in new procedures .
The next sign of how states are adapting to this changing landscape will likely be in June when they will conduct their presidential primaries .
States like Wisconsin , which @ @ @ @ @ @ @ voting by mail , will see hundreds of thousands of ballots cast that way , , the co-founder of the MIT Election Data and Science Lab , told the webinar .
“ So we ’ re going to learn a lot over the next few weeks about the uptake among voters , ” he said , adding that the big test will be next fall when a different electorate will turn out .
“ We need to remember that the new voters coming into the electorate in November will not be necessarily the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ” Whether election managers will be able to accommodate these voters is an open question and one that can not be answered now .
The best that they may be able to do is proactively flag issues like supply shortages , policy gaps and other emerging concerns , such as registering voters when state offices are closed .
All of these challenges are new and not occurring in a vacuum .
“ Everybody is focused about how we are going to deal with the virus and all that , but the [ cyber @ @ @ @ @ @ @ It may be more of a threat in the current environment , ” Trout said .
“ My biggest concern as we entered 2020 was misinformation .
I think that ’ s still my biggest concern .
Given people concerned about how they ’ re going to get their ballot cast , questions about how vote by mail really works , I think that we are susceptible to even more disinformation… “ We all knew 2020 was going to be a crazy year , even before we had all the security and the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is the editor and chief correspondent of , a project of the Independent Media Institute .
He has reported for National Public Radio , Marketplace , and Christian Science Monitor Radio , as well as a wide range of progressive publications including Salon , AlterNet , the American Prospect , and many others .

rss@dailykos.com (Independent Media Institute)

A scramble for ballot paper, printing and high-speed scanners is the latest worry as states eye voting by mail in a pandemic.
By Steven Rosenfeld
This article was produced by Voting Booth , a project of the Independent Media Institute.
Across the country, as voting rights attorneys and election policy experts keep issuing increasingly detailed prescriptions on how 2020’s elections can continue in a pandemic, the civil servants who actually run elections are facing their version of a shortage of face masks and ventilators.
The first hints of a scramble over voting materials, machinery and manpower were behind-the-scenes actions following the seemingly simple decisions by 10 states and territories to postpone primaries until June.
“Of course, there is nothing ‘straightforward’ about ‘simply’ postponing an election date,” noted Gavin Weise, election data manager for the U.S. Vote Foundation , which focuses on voting by Americans abroad. “All deadlines must be adjusted, materials reprinted with new dates, the workforce rescheduled, and facilities procured. In many cases new resources are required as election administrators’ needs change—for example, to deal with the increased volume of mail ballots.”
The prospect of new multitudes voting by mail —starting with primaries (Nevada, Ohio, Rhode Island), special elections (Maryland, California) or loosening eligibility for mail-in ballots (Alabama, West Virginia, Delaware, Connecticut, New York, Virginia) or extending mail-in periods (Iowa, Alaska, Wyoming)—has led county and state election administrators to speak of coming supply shortages.
“We have already contacted the vendor about leasing a high-speed scanner. Of course, everybody is [thinking about] doing that,” said Tammy Smith , Wilson County, Tennessee, assistant election administrator. “So, again, we get to the supply chain. Everyone is asking for the same thing all across the U.S. I’m concerned, are they going to be able to provide all of us with everything we need? If we can’t get high-speed scanners, then we need people.”
“I do have some pretty serious concerns about the supply chain,” said David Stafford , Escambia County, Florida, supervisor of elections. “I know a lot of people that are on this call have been participating in other calls. It’s not like these discussions have not already begun… Is there enough paper out there? Are there enough ballot envelopes to accommodate a massive expansion?”
Smith’s and Stafford’s remarks were from a March 25 e-briefing organized by Washington’s Bipartisan Policy Center to lay out the state of elections in the short term through the fall. Participants included state and local election administrators, foundation representatives, vendors and congressional staff. Another speaker was Stephen Trout , the state elections director from Oregon, the first state to entirely shift to voting by mail.
“The challenge is going to be on the back end where we have manual processes that have to happen. But I think the challenge that I don’t hear a lot of people talking about is the supply lines,” Trout said. “What’s your procurement process? For me, I still don’t have authorization to spend the federal funds that were granted in December [for cybersecurity] by my legislature yet. Then it will take me four-to-five months to be able to procure anything. Those are real things. People would have to procure central count vote tally systems, paper, [and] envelopes. There’s just a lot of logistics that would have to come into place—and that’s not even talking about the policies.”
The scramble for supplies goes beyond stocking in-person polling places and absentee ballot drop-off locations with “disinfectant, gloves and hand sanitizer, as well as additional pens for marking ballots,” as Weise noted .
“The other piece is, who is going to print the ballots? Are there going to be enough envelopes? Frankly, I told my counties two weeks ago, ‘There’s going to be more people voting by mail. You need to get on the phone to your vendor today, your envelope vendor, and make sure that you’ve got enough envelopes to get through November, because there’s probably going to be a rush,’” Trout said. “Some voting systems require specific paper. Is there going to be enough?”
These nuts-and-bolts concerns are not what most experts in election policy circles ponder. They are not the focus of legislative debates and lawsuits by partisans, which usually concern the laws and regulations that govern how voters are credentialed, how their ballots are validated, and how their votes are counted or rejected. Those issues, typically called policy, are from the political arena, which is not the same as civil servants doing their jobs.
“I think the biggest challenge my counties are having right now is with the social distancing in their [counting] boards that are opening the envelopes, that are verifying the signatures,” Trout said. “And so we are looking… at setting up some temporary locations, either adjacent to the county election office. I had suggested maybe high school gymnasiums because the schools are all closed, and then I found out that those were the backups for the hospitals.”
Other Simmering Issues
Matthew Weil, the Bipartisan Policy Center’s elections project director, said the webinar was to help election managers and policymakers move from the speculation around what needs to happen to specifics about the likely shift to more remote voting in 2020. The supply chain issues were very real, he said, adding that they weren’t the only issues facing election officials.
“They are in competition with each other over a limited number of machines, ballots, envelopes, etc.,” Weil said by email after the briefing. “Re: printing stock. Again, from some election officials, it is the case that some of the high-speed scanners may need a certain stock of paper that is milled only by a few plants.”
“The procurement timeline for states is very long,” he continued. “When the initial HAVA [Help America Vote Act cyber] security grants were made available in March 2018, many in the public were surprised when election officials told them there would be little impact on the 2018 election. That includes members of Congress. But the reality is the government procurement processes are lengthy and usually involve soliciting multiple bids. Whether it can be faster under states of emergency, I don’t know.”
Another large area of unknowns were policy changes—state laws and administrative rules—that would govern the fine print of voting by mail. During the e-briefing, Trout listed many examples of decisions that affect how voters, their ballot envelopes and their ballots would be processed.
“Ultimately, there’s a bunch of policy decisions that have to be made,” he said. “Are you going to notify people if their signature doesn’t check? What are you going to compare the signature against? Do you have signatures in your voter file now? If not, how are you going to get them? How are you going to authenticate those voters if the signature doesn’t match? If you decide that you are going to notify people, how are you going to do that? How long is that going to take? Is that going to impact your supplies? Is that going to impact how soon you can get results out?”
“Those are all huge policy questions that are going to have to be decided if people are trying to move to a vote-by-mail process that never have” had one, Trout continued. “Those are big policy calls that are going to have to be made. This election… [was already] contentious enough before we added all of this virus stuff to it. Any time you’re changing laws in the middle of a major election, that’s just fuel for lawsuits if results end up being close. You can’t just jump into this. We have to make sure that we do it right.”
Whether those policy questions will be addressed in a timely manner by states is another open question because most legislatures have adjourned either temporarily or for the rest of the term, Weil said.
“Most could come back, though whether they will focus on election policy concerns over other pressing needs is unknown,” he said. “Some of the changes being made now are through executive orders [by governors] and authority given to governors by states of emergency. When those states of emergency are lifted, if before November, it’s not clear whether legislatures will endorse all of the executive’s actions for November. It varies by state.”
Beyond questions of whether policies will be updated, and whether there will be supply and personnel shortages—due to the need for additional poll workers to process a surge in absentee ballots—are still other concerns. Even if election policy changes were made, election workers would need training in new procedures.
The next sign of how states are adapting to this changing landscape will likely be in June when they will conduct their presidential primaries. States like Wisconsin, which does not have a history of widespread voting by mail, will see hundreds of thousands of ballots cast that way, Charles Stewart III , the co-founder of the MIT Election Data and Science Lab, told the webinar.
“So we’re going to learn a lot over the next few weeks about the uptake among voters,” he said, adding that the big test will be next fall when a different electorate will turn out. “We need to remember that the new voters coming into the electorate in November will not be necessarily the ones who are voting in these primaries.”
Whether election managers will be able to accommodate these voters is an open question and one that cannot be answered now. The best that they may be able to do is proactively flag issues like supply shortages, policy gaps and other emerging concerns, such as registering voters when state offices are closed. All of these challenges are new and not occurring in a vacuum.
“Everybody is focused about how we are going to deal with the virus and all that, but the [cyber]security threat is still real. It may be more of a threat in the current environment,” Trout said. “My biggest concern as we entered 2020 was misinformation. I think that’s still my biggest concern. Given people concerned about how they’re going to get their ballot cast, questions about how vote by mail really works, I think that we are susceptible to even more disinformation…
“We all knew 2020 was going to be a crazy year, even before we had all the security and the pandemic to deal with.”