vox--2020-11-12--Most Latinos voted for Biden — but 2020 revealed fault lines for Democrats

President Donald Trump ’ s gains with Latino voters in Florida ’ s Miami-Dade County and Texas ’ s Rio Grande Valley have gotten a lot of attention .
But in 2020 , Latinos proved once again that their political leanings defy a concise definition : In battleground states like Arizona , Nevada , Pennsylvania , and Michigan , Latinos helped deliver victories that made Joe Biden ’ s ascent to the presidency possible .
It could be months before more robust data on the Latino electorate becomes available .
The American Election Eve poll from Latino Decisions suggested that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ supported Biden , possibly higher than the about 66 percent of Latino voters Hillary Clinton won in 2016 .
But most polls underestimated Trump ’ s performance this cycle , so Biden ’ s actual margin among Latinos may be smaller than Clinton ’ s .
Early exit poll data suggests that ’ s the case , though this kind of data is sometimes even less reliable .
Still , it ’ s clear most Latinos voted for Biden .
Grassroots organizers mobilized in battleground states to help make that happen , despite @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Party until the final weeks before Election Day .
The election-eve poll showed that Latino voters responded overwhelmingly to Biden ’ s messaging on the coronavirus , the economy , and health care .
But the demographic is not monolithic , and their political opinions vary widely by country of origin , religion , gender , generation , how long they have lived in the US , and where they live .
Though most have historically voted for Democrats , there has always been a contingent of Latinos who back Republicans .
Yet @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Democrats that Trump was able to eat into Biden ’ s margins among Latinos in certain corners of the country .
In Florida ’ s Miami-Dade County and the south Texas borderlands , both of which are majority-Latino areas once considered Democratic strongholds , Biden underperformed dramatically in 2020 compared with Clinton in 2016 .
Those losses have attracted outsized scrutiny relative to the successes Latino voters delivered for Biden nationwide , and they alone did not cause Biden to lose Florida and Texas , where Trump largely maintained , and in some @ @ @ @ @ @ @ voters .
Even if Biden had won the border counties in Texas by the same margins as Clinton , for example , it wouldn ’ t have been enough to make up the gap between him and Trump in the state , which is still red — despite Democrats ’ hopes that 2020 would be the year it would flip .
Still , any erosion in Latino support , which is key to the Democratic coalition , should prompt a reexamining of the party ’ s outreach strategy , something community organizers have @ @ @ @ @ @ @ can not take Latinos for granted , ” Domingo Garcia , president of the League of United Latin American Citizens ( LULAC ) , said in a press call .
“ I think Biden missed a grand opportunity to have been able to carry Florida and Texas if he had just invested in the Latino community more , if he had delivered the correct message.
” Democrats needed to invest early and consistently , and they didn ’ t Latino voters make up an essential component of the Democratic coalition , but the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that way .
In recent presidential campaigns , Democrats have typically waited until the final weeks before Election Day to conduct outreach in the Latino community , perpetuating the perception that Latinos are an afterthought , said Marisa Franco , executive director of Mijente , a hub for Latino organizing nationwide .
The Biden campaign was no exception : Though he started running Spanish-language ads in Florida and Arizona in June , it wasn ’ t until late August that his campaign began to focus in earnest on Latino outreach .
It was @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to do ” with Latinos , senior adviser Symone Sanders said in an ABC News interview September 13 .
But by then , the “ Latinos for Trump ” campaign was already flourishing in Florida , where the president also benefited from a well-oiled Republican political machine .
Biden won Miami-Dade County , where Latinos account for 58 percent of registered voters , by only about 7 points , compared to Clinton ’ s 30-point margin in 2016 .
Cuban Americans are the largest contingent among those voters and have historically leaned more @ @ @ @ @ @ @ origin .
But even Miami ’ s Cuban American community isn ’ t politically homogeneous : They ’ re divided over policies related to the island nation , including the effectiveness of the longstanding Cuban embargo .
US-born Cubans are more evenly split between the two parties than their parents and grandparents who fled Cuba , too .
Miami-Dade also has significant Colombian , Haitian , Nicaraguan , and Venezuelan communities , each with their own political idiosyncrasies .
Trump ’ s ability to make inroads in these communities — and Biden ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ losses in other parts of the state — were significant enough to tip Florida in the president ’ s favor in a tight contest .
The outcome wasn ’ t entirely surprising to Latino organizers , who had been warning about Biden ’ s weakness in the community for months .
Chuck Rocha , a former senior adviser to Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders ’ s 2020 presidential campaign and co-founder of the Latino-focused Nuestro PAC , said in a post-election press call that outside donors also had a big blind spot when it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Rocha started seeking out infrequent and newly registered Latinos in battleground states with a tested , multilayer ad strategy encompassing TV , radio , mail , and newspapers , treating them as persuadable voters .
But Nuestro PAC , along with the two other major PACs focused on Latino outreach , raised only a combined $ 27 million .
By comparison , the Lincoln Project — a super PAC founded by former Republicans who sought to persuade conservatives to vote for Biden , but whose strategy largely fell flat — raised an unjustifiable @ @ @ @ @ @ @ was spending money talking to Latinos in June and July , ” Rocha said .
“ It ’ s just simply ridiculous that they talk about our community and the way we vote , but they have yet to invest in it .
… These folks spent a billion dollars talking to white people because it ’ s smart politics : If you want to persuade somebody to go vote for somebody , spend a lot of money talking to them .
Then why don ’ t you do that with Latinos ?
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ s performance in the Texas borderlands is , in part , a symptom of that neglect .
More than half of Latinos in Texas live in major cities , and they overwhelmingly voted for Biden .
But that marked a contrast with the predominantly Mexican border counties : Compared to Clinton in 2016 , Biden won by substantially slimmer margins in Cameron , Starr , Hidalgo , Webb , and Maverick counties , despite a significant jump in turnout .
In Hidalgo County , the largest county in the Rio Grande Valley where @ @ @ @ @ @ @ population , Biden won by 18 points with about 220,000 total votes cast .
Clinton won the county by a whopping 40-point margin just four years ago , though only 167,000 people voted that year .
Trump also flipped Zapata County , improving his performance there by 38 points over 2016 , though that represents a swing of only 1,000 votes .
Campaigns have historically targeted consistently Democratic voters , but along the border , turnout isn ’ t typically high .
Those counties , where people earn relatively low incomes and are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the state , have often been neglected by politicians at both the state and national level .
Julián Castro , a former San Antonio mayor who ran against Biden in the Democratic primaries , said in a press call that the party ’ s response to the 2020 election results should be to pour more investment into those communities going forward , not to withdraw .
That ’ s especially important as Democrats eye an opportunity to unseat Texas Gov .
Greg Abbott , a Republican , in 2022 .
“ There is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ places like the [ Rio Grande Valley ] that support will start to atrophy because the investment is not being made , ” Castro said .
Democrats need to work with Latino organizers Biden stood on the shoulders of grassroots organizers who have been working to activate the Latino community in battleground states for years .
In Arizona , organizers mobilized Latinos to vote out Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio , who targeted Latinos .
They were also at the center of the movement against SB 1070 , which was passed by the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the “ most restrictive anti-immigration bills in the country , ” as my colleague Li Zhou explained .
Though the most controversial parts of the law have since been invalidated by the courts , SB 1070 previously allowed police to stop anyone they believed was an unauthorized immigrant and request their federal registration papers , leading to racial profiling .
Those organizers committed to registering voters and encouraging them to turn out consistently over the last several election cycles .
The group Voto Latino reported registering more than 61,000 Arizonans this year alone @ @ @ @ @ @ @ who beat Trump by about 15,000 votes in the state , according to Vox ’ s election partner Decision Desk HQ .
But LULAC ’ s Garcia said community organizers could have widened that margin with more resources .
“ That ’ s why I think the margins are much nearer than they should be , ” he said .
“ If candidates invest , if they empower Latino consultants and Latino community organizations , then you can have massive turnouts that will swing decisively in your favor.
” Democrats , on the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ presidential election years , which is “ the equivalent of someone competing in the Olympics every four years when they haven ’ t done a sit-up in three , ” Mijente ’ s Franco said .
“ I don ’ t think that the Democratic Party can and should take credit for Arizona.
” But going forward , the party could try to foster the community organizing that already exists in Arizona and replicate it elsewhere .
That starts with prioritizing issues that matter to the Latino community while they ’ re in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , and , when the next election rolls around , seeking their endorsements and integrating Latinos across their campaign ’ s leadership , Franco said .
One of those motivating issues is immigrant rights .
Franco thought Biden missed an opportunity to signal to immigrant rights activists that he would prioritize their concerns in the immigration task force jointly convened by the teams of Biden and Sanders , who finished second in 2020 ’ s Democratic primary .
“ People want to see results , ” Franco said .
“ We are going @ @ @ @ @ @ @ they do more than just the basics of undoing the worst of what Trump did.
” Nevada Democrats have already fostered a fruitful relationship with the Culinary Union , the largest union in the state .
Representing tens of thousands of Latinos working in the hospitality industry , the union endorsed Biden and ran the largest field program in Nevada this year , knocking on more than 500,000 doors in Las Vegas and Reno when Democrats weren ’ t doing in-person canvassing due to the pandemic .
In states like Georgia , however @ @ @ @ @ @ @ nascent stage .
The Latino community helped elect two new sheriffs who have vowed to stop cooperating with US Immigration and Customs Enforcement to detain immigrants .
But there ’ s still room to grow , particularly if Democrats want the state to stay blue .
Overcoming disinformation is a challenge for Democrats in general , but Franco said some Latinos might be particularly susceptible to it , in part because they are politically marginalized and may face language barriers .
The primary culprits may be Facebook , whose fact-checking operation has failed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and misleading information , as well as private threads in WhatsApp , where disinformation spreads more organically through people ’ s family and friend groups .
But Spanish-language conservative media such as Noticias 24 and PanAm Post also play a role .
As a consequence , absurd conspiracy theories about Joe Biden and Democrats came to permeate Latino politics in Florida .
Trump and his allies have also wielded disinformation as a weapon , successfully microtargeting Latinos in Florida with the false claim that Biden is a socialist and capitalizing on the fears @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The president ’ s Spanish-language ads , which began airing in Florida as early as June , likened Biden to ruthless Latin American caudillos like Cuba ’ s Fidel Castro and Hugo Chávez and Nicolás Maduro of Venezuela .
Biden ran as a center-left moderate , and even Sanders ’ s brand of democratic socialism bears little resemblance to the regimes in Latin America .
But Biden never really articulated the distinction in concrete terms for voters , instead shrugging off the characterization .
“ I ’ m the guy who ran against @ @ @ @ @ @ @ an October 5 campaign event in Miami .
“ When you do not respond to the label of you being called a socialist and you think that ’ s not going to affect you , I think that was a big mistake by the Biden campaign , ” Garcia said .
“ I think that hurt in large parts of Florida , as well as parts of Texas , which I believe are there for the winning.
” Democrats haven ’ t yet figured out how to effectively combat disinformation .
But Franco @ @ @ @ @ @ @ from these communities who can act as trusted messengers and help educate voters on how to become responsible media consumers .
There was record turnout among Latinos — but they still face voter suppression Latinos showed up in record numbers , with an early estimate of 14.8 million by UCLA ’ s Latino Politics and Policy Initiative .
Young Latino voters helped drive that turnout , with roughly 1.7 million voting early — a nearly three-fold increase over 2016 , according to the political data firm TargetSmart .
Women , who have suffered @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , also turned out in droves , helping Biden to victory in states like Wisconsin .
That record turnout is in spite of the obstacles in their way before they actually cast a ballot in certain states .
“ If candidates invest , if they empower Latino consultants and Latino community organizations , then you can have massive turnouts that will swing decisively in your favor ” Texas has closed about 750 polling sites since 2012 , including 542 sites in 50 counties where African American and Latino populations have grown significantly in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ wait times at some polling sites in predominantly Black and Latino neighborhoods during the 2020 Democratic primaries .
This year alone , Republican lawmakers in the state limited the number of ballot drop-off locations to just one per county , banned counties from sending mail-in ballots to all registered voters , and sought to curtail drive-through voting .
Nevertheless , Texas saw record-breaking turnout among early voters , with highly motivated Republican and Democratic bases — driven in part by outrage over the attempted voter suppression — who overcame those obstacles .
Arkansas @ @ @ @ @ @ @ now being challenged in court by Mexican American activists , that places a limit on the number of people that any one person can assist in voting .
For Latino voters who may not be familiar with the US electoral process or who have limited English proficiency , it could preclude them from receiving the help they need to participate in US democracy .
For some Latinos , Trump had inherent appeal It might seem improbable that Latinos would vote for a man who has demonized immigrants and Mexicans in particular and refused @ @ @ @ @ @ @ supremacists .
On the campaign trail in 2016 , trump claimed the US needed to keep out “ bad hombres ” from Mexico , suggested that Mexicans were overwhelmingly criminals , and promised his supporters that he would build a “ big , beautiful wall ” across the entire southern border to keep them out .
But for some people at whom Trump levied those attacks , he nevertheless remained a palatable , even attractive candidate .
In South Texas , for example , Trump ’ s “ law and order ” messaging @ @ @ @ @ @ @ some resonance in Latino communities where law enforcement , particularly the Border Patrol , is a major employer , Garcia said .
Many residents also work in oil fields and fear Democrats ’ calls to transition away from oil and gas and towards clean , renewable energy .
And many are Catholic or Evangelical Christians who find Democrats ’ pro-abortion rights stance abhorrent .
But the biggest factor may be the president ’ s focus on reopening the economy at a time when many of these communities have been economically devastated by the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ high numbers of coronavirus-related deaths .
The economy depends on solving this public health crisis , but a perceived choice between one or the other may still resonate with voters .
“ We need to be able to address her concerns in order to win them over , ” Garcia said .
“ And hopefully that ’ s one of the lessons that will be learned from this election process .
”

President Donald Trump’s gains with Latino voters in Florida’s Miami-Dade County and Texas’s Rio Grande Valley have gotten a lot of attention. But in 2020, Latinos proved once again that their political leanings defy a concise definition: In battleground states like Arizona, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Michigan, Latinos helped deliver victories that made Joe Biden’s ascent to the presidency possible.
It could be months before more robust data on the Latino electorate becomes available. The American Election Eve poll from Latino Decisions suggested that a large majority of Latino voters nationwide supported Biden, possibly higher than the about 66 percent of Latino voters Hillary Clinton won in 2016. But most polls underestimated Trump’s performance this cycle, so Biden’s actual margin among Latinos may be smaller than Clinton’s. Early exit poll data suggests that’s the case, though this kind of data is sometimes even less reliable.
Still, it’s clear most Latinos voted for Biden. Grassroots organizers mobilized in battleground states to help make that happen, despite a lack of investment from the Democratic Party until the final weeks before Election Day.
The election-eve poll showed that Latino voters responded overwhelmingly to Biden’s messaging on the coronavirus, the economy, and health care. But the demographic is not monolithic, and their political opinions vary widely by country of origin, religion, gender, generation, how long they have lived in the US, and where they live. Though most have historically voted for Democrats, there has always been a contingent of Latinos who back Republicans.
Yet it came as a surprise to some Democrats that Trump was able to eat into Biden’s margins among Latinos in certain corners of the country. In Florida’s Miami-Dade County and the south Texas borderlands, both of which are majority-Latino areas once considered Democratic strongholds, Biden underperformed dramatically in 2020 compared with Clinton in 2016.
Those losses have attracted outsized scrutiny relative to the successes Latino voters delivered for Biden nationwide, and they alone did not cause Biden to lose Florida and Texas, where Trump largely maintained, and in some places improved, his margins among white voters. Even if Biden had won the border counties in Texas by the same margins as Clinton, for example, it wouldn’t have been enough to make up the gap between him and Trump in the state, which is still red — despite Democrats’ hopes that 2020 would be the year it would flip.
Still, any erosion in Latino support, which is key to the Democratic coalition, should prompt a reexamining of the party’s outreach strategy, something community organizers have long found lacking.
“The Democrats cannot take Latinos for granted,” Domingo Garcia, president of the League of United Latin American Citizens (LULAC), said in a press call. “I think Biden missed a grand opportunity to have been able to carry Florida and Texas if he had just invested in the Latino community more, if he had delivered the correct message.”
Democrats needed to invest early and consistently, and they didn’t
Latino voters make up an essential component of the Democratic coalition, but the party hasn’t historically treated them that way. In recent presidential campaigns, Democrats have typically waited until the final weeks before Election Day to conduct outreach in the Latino community, perpetuating the perception that Latinos are an afterthought, said Marisa Franco, executive director of Mijente, a hub for Latino organizing nationwide.
And on this hand-wringing about slight POC increases for GOP in some areas - this is also an area w answers.
But honestly when it comes to Latinos the party’s just never seriously made an effort. Mexicans, Central Am, Caribbean, Chicanos - Cubans are not the only impt community — Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (@AOC) November 6, 2020
The Biden campaign was no exception: Though he started running Spanish-language ads in Florida and Arizona in June, it wasn’t until late August that his campaign began to focus in earnest on Latino outreach. It was clear the Biden campaign had “work to do” with Latinos, senior adviser Symone Sanders said in an ABC News interview September 13. But by then, the “Latinos for Trump” campaign was already flourishing in Florida, where the president also benefited from a well-oiled Republican political machine.
Biden won Miami-Dade County, where Latinos account for 58 percent of registered voters, by only about 7 points, compared to Clinton’s 30-point margin in 2016.
Cuban Americans are the largest contingent among those voters and have historically leaned more Republican than Hispanics from other countries of origin. But even Miami’s Cuban American community isn’t politically homogeneous: They’re divided over policies related to the island nation, including the effectiveness of the longstanding Cuban embargo. US-born Cubans are more evenly split between the two parties than their parents and grandparents who fled Cuba, too.
Miami-Dade also has significant Colombian, Haitian, Nicaraguan, and Venezuelan communities, each with their own political idiosyncrasies.
Trump’s ability to make inroads in these communities — and Biden’s failure to make up for those losses in other parts of the state — were significant enough to tip Florida in the president’s favor in a tight contest. The outcome wasn’t entirely surprising to Latino organizers, who had been warning about Biden’s weakness in the community for months.
Chuck Rocha, a former senior adviser to Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders’s 2020 presidential campaign and co-founder of the Latino-focused Nuestro PAC, said in a post-election press call that outside donors also had a big blind spot when it came to Latinos. In June, Rocha started seeking out infrequent and newly registered Latinos in battleground states with a tested, multilayer ad strategy encompassing TV, radio, mail, and newspapers, treating them as persuadable voters.
But Nuestro PAC, along with the two other major PACs focused on Latino outreach, raised only a combined $27 million. By comparison, the Lincoln Project — a super PAC founded by former Republicans who sought to persuade conservatives to vote for Biden, but whose strategy largely fell flat — raised an unjustifiable $67.4 million.
“Nobody else was spending money talking to Latinos in June and July,” Rocha said. “It’s just simply ridiculous that they talk about our community and the way we vote, but they have yet to invest in it. … These folks spent a billion dollars talking to white people because it’s smart politics: If you want to persuade somebody to go vote for somebody, spend a lot of money talking to them. Then why don’t you do that with Latinos?”
Some Democrats argue that Biden’s performance in the Texas borderlands is, in part, a symptom of that neglect. More than half of Latinos in Texas live in major cities, and they overwhelmingly voted for Biden. But that marked a contrast with the predominantly Mexican border counties: Compared to Clinton in 2016, Biden won by substantially slimmer margins in Cameron, Starr, Hidalgo, Webb, and Maverick counties, despite a significant jump in turnout.
In Hidalgo County, the largest county in the Rio Grande Valley where Hispanics make up 92 percent of the population, Biden won by 18 points with about 220,000 total votes cast. Clinton won the county by a whopping 40-point margin just four years ago, though only 167,000 people voted that year. Trump also flipped Zapata County, improving his performance there by 38 points over 2016, though that represents a swing of only 1,000 votes.
Campaigns have historically targeted consistently Democratic voters, but along the border, turnout isn’t typically high. Those counties, where people earn relatively low incomes and are less educated compared with other parts of the state, have often been neglected by politicians at both the state and national level.
Julián Castro, a former San Antonio mayor who ran against Biden in the Democratic primaries, said in a press call that the party’s response to the 2020 election results should be to pour more investment into those communities going forward, not to withdraw. That’s especially important as Democrats eye an opportunity to unseat Texas Gov. Greg Abbott, a Republican, in 2022.
“There is a danger for the Democratic Party in places like the [Rio Grande Valley] that support will start to atrophy because the investment is not being made,” Castro said.
Democrats need to work with Latino organizers
Biden stood on the shoulders of grassroots organizers who have been working to activate the Latino community in battleground states for years.
In Arizona, organizers mobilized Latinos to vote out Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio, who targeted Latinos. They were also at the center of the movement against SB 1070, which was passed by the state legislature in 2010 as one of the “most restrictive anti-immigration bills in the country,” as my colleague Li Zhou explained. Though the most controversial parts of the law have since been invalidated by the courts, SB 1070 previously allowed police to stop anyone they believed was an unauthorized immigrant and request their federal registration papers, leading to racial profiling.
Those organizers committed to registering voters and encouraging them to turn out consistently over the last several election cycles. The group Voto Latino reported registering more than 61,000 Arizonans this year alone.
That paid off for Biden, who beat Trump by about 15,000 votes in the state, according to Vox’s election partner Decision Desk HQ. But LULAC’s Garcia said community organizers could have widened that margin with more resources.
“That’s why I think the margins are much nearer than they should be,” he said. “If candidates invest, if they empower Latino consultants and Latino community organizations, then you can have massive turnouts that will swing decisively in your favor.”
Democrats, on the other hand, only show up in presidential election years, which is “the equivalent of someone competing in the Olympics every four years when they haven’t done a sit-up in three,” Mijente’s Franco said. “I don’t think that the Democratic Party can and should take credit for Arizona.”
But going forward, the party could try to foster the community organizing that already exists in Arizona and replicate it elsewhere. That starts with prioritizing issues that matter to the Latino community while they’re in office, consulting activists on those issues, and, when the next election rolls around, seeking their endorsements and integrating Latinos across their campaign’s leadership, Franco said.
One of those motivating issues is immigrant rights. Franco thought Biden missed an opportunity to signal to immigrant rights activists that he would prioritize their concerns in the immigration task force jointly convened by the teams of Biden and Sanders, who finished second in 2020’s Democratic primary.
“People want to see results,” Franco said. “We are going to be very aggressive and demanding that they do more than just the basics of undoing the worst of what Trump did.”
Nevada Democrats have already fostered a fruitful relationship with the Culinary Union, the largest union in the state. Representing tens of thousands of Latinos working in the hospitality industry, the union endorsed Biden and ran the largest field program in Nevada this year, knocking on more than 500,000 doors in Las Vegas and Reno when Democrats weren’t doing in-person canvassing due to the pandemic.
In states like Georgia, however, Latino organizing is still in a nascent stage. The Latino community helped elect two new sheriffs who have vowed to stop cooperating with US Immigration and Customs Enforcement to detain immigrants. But there’s still room to grow, particularly if Democrats want the state to stay blue.
Right-wing disinformation is a powerful force
Overcoming disinformation is a challenge for Democrats in general, but Franco said some Latinos might be particularly susceptible to it, in part because they are politically marginalized and may face language barriers.
The primary culprits may be Facebook, whose fact-checking operation has failed to meaningfully curtail the spread of false and misleading information, as well as private threads in WhatsApp, where disinformation spreads more organically through people’s family and friend groups. But Spanish-language conservative media such as Noticias 24 and PanAm Post also play a role. As a consequence, absurd conspiracy theories about Joe Biden and Democrats came to permeate Latino politics in Florida.
Trump and his allies have also wielded disinformation as a weapon, successfully microtargeting Latinos in Florida with the false claim that Biden is a socialist and capitalizing on the fears of Hispanics from failed socialist regimes. The president’s Spanish-language ads, which began airing in Florida as early as June, likened Biden to ruthless Latin American caudillos like Cuba’s Fidel Castro and Hugo Chávez and Nicolás Maduro of Venezuela.
Biden ran as a center-left moderate, and even Sanders’s brand of democratic socialism bears little resemblance to the regimes in Latin America. But Biden never really articulated the distinction in concrete terms for voters, instead shrugging off the characterization. “I’m the guy who ran against a socialist,” he said at an October 5 campaign event in Miami.
“When you do not respond to the label of you being called a socialist and you think that’s not going to affect you, I think that was a big mistake by the Biden campaign,” Garcia said. “I think that hurt in large parts of Florida, as well as parts of Texas, which I believe are there for the winning.”
Democrats haven’t yet figured out how to effectively combat disinformation. But Franco said one way might be hiring people from these communities who can act as trusted messengers and help educate voters on how to become responsible media consumers.
There was record turnout among Latinos — but they still face voter suppression
Latinos showed up in record numbers, with an early estimate of 14.8 million by UCLA’s Latino Politics and Policy Initiative. Young Latino voters helped drive that turnout, with roughly 1.7 million voting early — a nearly three-fold increase over 2016, according to the political data firm TargetSmart. Women, who have suffered disproportionately from job losses during the pandemic, also turned out in droves, helping Biden to victory in states like Wisconsin.
That record turnout is in spite of the obstacles in their way before they actually cast a ballot in certain states.
“If candidates invest, if they empower Latino consultants and Latino community organizations, then you can have massive turnouts that will swing decisively in your favor”
Texas has closed about 750 polling sites since 2012, including 542 sites in 50 counties where African American and Latino populations have grown significantly in recent years. That led to long wait times at some polling sites in predominantly Black and Latino neighborhoods during the 2020 Democratic primaries.
This year alone, Republican lawmakers in the state limited the number of ballot drop-off locations to just one per county, banned counties from sending mail-in ballots to all registered voters, and sought to curtail drive-through voting. Nevertheless, Texas saw record-breaking turnout among early voters, with highly motivated Republican and Democratic bases — driven in part by outrage over the attempted voter suppression — who overcame those obstacles.
Arkansas has pursued a similarly restrictive measure, now being challenged in court by Mexican American activists, that places a limit on the number of people that any one person can assist in voting. For Latino voters who may not be familiar with the US electoral process or who have limited English proficiency, it could preclude them from receiving the help they need to participate in US democracy.
For some Latinos, Trump had inherent appeal
It might seem improbable that Latinos would vote for a man who has demonized immigrants and Mexicans in particular and refused on several occasions to outright denounce white supremacists. On the campaign trail in 2016, trump claimed the US needed to keep out “bad hombres” from Mexico, suggested that Mexicans were overwhelmingly criminals, and promised his supporters that he would build a “big, beautiful wall” across the entire southern border to keep them out.
But for some people at whom Trump levied those attacks, he nevertheless remained a palatable, even attractive candidate.
In South Texas, for example, Trump’s “law and order” messaging and opposition to defunding the police had some resonance in Latino communities where law enforcement, particularly the Border Patrol, is a major employer, Garcia said. Many residents also work in oil fields and fear Democrats’ calls to transition away from oil and gas and towards clean, renewable energy. And many are Catholic or Evangelical Christians who find Democrats’ pro-abortion rights stance abhorrent.
But the biggest factor may be the president’s focus on reopening the economy at a time when many of these communities have been economically devastated by the pandemic, in addition to suffering from high numbers of coronavirus-related deaths. The economy depends on solving this public health crisis, but a perceived choice between one or the other may still resonate with voters.
“We need to be able to address her concerns in order to win them over,” Garcia said. “And hopefully that’s one of the lessons that will be learned from this election process.”


vox--2020-11-12--My two days watching Newsmax, the network waging war on Fox News from the right

On Newsmax , the 2020 election is still undecided .
To hear Newsmax tell it , not only has President-elect Joe Biden not definitively clinched the presidency , but incumbent Donald Trump is quite close to having victory in the bag .
The 24-hour news network that aims to run to Fox News ’ s right does something subtle to make it seem as though Trump has all but won .
Along the bottom of the screen , it perpetually runs an election results tracker .
When close Senate races pop up in the tracker , the Democratic candidate , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on the left when they won — just as you ’ d expect when keeping track of scores : We traditionally list the winner of something first .
But when the results of the major battleground states pop up , Trump is always listed first , even when he ’ s trailing behind Joe Biden , sometimes by a huge margin .
This is true when the network shows the current tally in Michigan , where Biden leads Trump by about 150,000 votes , and where other major outlets named Biden the winner @ @ @ @ @ @ @ true even when the network shows the results in the national popular vote , where Biden leads Trump by more than 5 million votes .
Newsmax reports up-to-date vote totals .
It doesn ’ t overtly suggest that Trump is leading in the states he has clearly lost , even in terms of percentage of the total vote .
But by always listing Trump first , the network creates the perception that Trump is in control of this race , even when you look more closely at the raw numbers .
He ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Just you wait !
And that ’ s notable because Newsmax is one of the only news networks with significant reach that hasn ’ t called the election for Joe Biden .
( One America News has also equivocated . )
The network is gambling that it can win a larger audience of Trump fans by parroting the Trump campaign argument that the election isn ’ t settled until the Electoral College meets in December , and anything can happen until then , and anyway , there was a ton of fraud , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ I contacted Newsmax on Monday to ask for their reasoning for not calling the election and have yet to hear back .
But all of the reasons I just cited are ones it has presented on air . )
And at a time when the president has lost affection for Fox News , it just might work .
You probably get Newsmax in your home .
You just might not know it .
Newsmax ( or , as it ’ s more properly known , Newsmax TV ) launched in 2014 , and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the US on nearly all major cable and satellite platforms .
( It also streams live on YouTube . )
In channel guides , it usually lurks just beyond the CNN/Fox News/MSNBC trifecta , patiently waiting for you to find it .
That doesn ’ t necessarily mean a lot of people are watching , although viewership has risen for Newsmax ’ s election coverage .
The channel is a product of Newsmax Media , whose flagship publication is the magazine Newsmax .
Despite the name , Newsmax — in both its print @ @ @ @ @ @ @ traditional news than Fox News or MSNBC .
It ’ s almost all commentary , and it ’ s almost all pro-Trump .
The editorial view that whatever Trump is up to equals “ news ” is taken to absurd extremes .
One of the network ’ s afternoon programs — the exceedingly strange Howie Carr Show — included a mention of the network ’ s daily curation of tweets that will make conservatives feel good ( or at least outraged at Democrats ) .
Why check out Twitter when you have producer @ @ @ @ @ @ @ pick out only the tweets you want to see ?
So far as I can tell , Newsmax doesn ’ t go full arch-conservative .
The network doesn ’ t give airtime to QAnon paranoiacs , at least that I ’ ve seen .
But over the last few days , it has spent lots of time arguing that other media outlets jumped the gun in calling the election for Biden and that Trump still has a path to win this thing .
The network ’ s lineup of pundits is mostly made @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Carr , for instance , hosts a right-wing radio show in the Boston area , and his one-hour Newsmax show is a sort of distilled version of that .
Aesthetically , The Howie Carr Show may speak to Newsmax ’ s biggest challenge in catching up to Fox News , which is that it ’ s ugly as hell .
Carr sits in front of an American flag background , staring not at the camera in front of him but just off to its side , while Curley says things to him @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s one of the weirdest things I ’ ve ever seen on TV , only a couple of steps above public-access television but with just high enough production values to make you wonder why it ’ s not better than it is .
Outside of Carr and a handful of other talk radio figures , Newsmax has a handful of hosts who are known to folks outside the conservative media bubble .
Former Trump press secretary Sean Spicer has a show .
Game Change co-author Mark Halperin , who lost his jobs at @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in 2017 after multiple allegations of sexual harassment , has occasionally dropped by Newsmax to offer his take on how Trump can still win .
Halperin also presents videoconferencing “ focus groups ” whose participants seem to have been selected with the goal of letting the network ’ s Trump-friendly viewership feel like there are more people like them out there .
It ’ s grim television , honestly — ugly to watch , even beyond its “ cult of Trump ” trappings , because it ’ s so clunky in its composition @ @ @ @ @ @ @ parody of a 24-hour news network .
At least Fox News is compelling — very high-gloss and well-crafted , with all its swooshing graphics and attention-grabbing noise that make you want to keep tuning in .
Yet Newsmax is making a bid that aesthetics don ’ t matter .
No , what matters to its target audience is adherence to a party line .
There ’ s room to Fox News ’ s right , believe it or not .
And Newsmax has competition , too .
The obvious territory to explore in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ be on the left .
MSNBC is nominally to the left of centrist CNN , but only a bit , particularly compared to Fox News ’ s rightward tilt .
So in theory , an overtly leftist cable news channel seems like a niche to be filled .
But the up-for-grabs audience of democratic socialists , social justice advocates , and other assorted leftists doesn ’ t really watch cable news ; this demographic skews young and toward websites , social media , and podcasts .
In contrast , the right-leaning audience watches @ @ @ @ @ @ @ older .
And within that sphere , Fox News ’ s coverage of the 2020 election has become a point of contention , particularly when it comes to the network ’ s call of Arizona for Joe Biden on election night .
Though the call appears to have since been borne out , with many other networks following suit , it seems at odds with just how close the state ’ s vote totals have turned out to be .
The president himself has been angered by this dynamic , according to a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ And Fox News ’ s incredulity at the idea that Trump could still win the election is only furthering the sense that the network is not sufficiently in Trump ’ s corner and , thus , can ’ t be trusted by true conservatives .
The result is that , if Newsmax has a larger point in this post-election week , it seems to be that Fox News is over , and Newsmax is the future .
Carr ’ s show takes callers , and in listening to what they have to say @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and clear .
One caller who made it to air on Monday spoke at length about how bad Fox News had gotten and how much more he loves Newsmax now .
( Monday was apparently the caller ’ s first day of watching Newsmax . )
The caller said he longed for a Trump TV network ; Carr mused that if Trump were to lose the election — as if that hasn ’ t already happened — he might end up with a show on Newsmax .
The race to win over the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ finds itself in .
The network is unlikely to overtake Fox News in the ratings , but if it can chip away at the Fox News viewership , it could easily become a credible alternative among an audience who simply wants to hear more about how Trump is doing , with occasional check-ins on stock prices .
( Covid-19 was barely mentioned at all in the Newsmax coverage I watched . )
But Newsmax is not the only competitor in this space — One America News ( OAN ) and BlazeTV being the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that not calling the election for Biden will curry favor among Trump fans is a smart ploy from this point of view .
If Trump really does want to do a cable news talk show , OAN would seem to be an obvious choice to broadcast it ( as the president has mentioned how much he likes it now ) , but Newsmax could come from behind with its dedication to selling the Trump party line as much as possible .
( For its part , OAN put up a Reuters article on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ it has since pulled that article from its website . )
Giving credence to the idea that Biden stole the election and Trump is the true winner is dangerous , particularly if doing so creates a sizable number of people who believe Biden is an illegitimate president .
At best , it will only further polarize an already deeply polarized country ; at worst ... well , it ’ s not pleasant to imagine .
I ’ m confident that Newsmax ’ s response to this argument would be something like , “ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ illegitimate president all these years !
” But that would leave out the context that Trump clearly lost the popular vote in 2016 — a divide that exposed the growing rift between a majority of the country ’ s voters and the handful of voters who live in swing states and , by extension , matter most .
Or the network might gesture to occasional mainstream media coverage as a point in its favor .
On Tuesday morning , the network trumpeted a Fast Company headline reading “ Newsmax could end up being @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , ” not mentioning that by the network ’ s standard , the idea of a “ post-Trump era ” is still uncertain .
But on Newsmax , it doesn ’ t really matter if Trump wins or loses : Either way , the winner will be Newsmax .

On Newsmax, the 2020 election is still undecided. To hear Newsmax tell it, not only has President-elect Joe Biden not definitively clinched the presidency, but incumbent Donald Trump is quite close to having victory in the bag.
The 24-hour news network that aims to run to Fox News’s right does something subtle to make it seem as though Trump has all but won. Along the bottom of the screen, it perpetually runs an election results tracker. When close Senate races pop up in the tracker, the Democratic candidate, highlighted within a blue box, appears on the left when they won — just as you’d expect when keeping track of scores: We traditionally list the winner of something first.
But when the results of the major battleground states pop up, Trump is always listed first, even when he’s trailing behind Joe Biden, sometimes by a huge margin. This is true when the network shows the current tally in Michigan, where Biden leads Trump by about 150,000 votes, and where other major outlets named Biden the winner several days ago. It’s true even when the network shows the results in the national popular vote, where Biden leads Trump by more than 5 million votes.
Newsmax reports up-to-date vote totals. It doesn’t overtly suggest that Trump is leading in the states he has clearly lost, even in terms of percentage of the total vote. But by always listing Trump first, the network creates the perception that Trump is in control of this race, even when you look more closely at the raw numbers. He’s gonna win this thing! Just you wait!
And that’s notable because Newsmax is one of the only news networks with significant reach that hasn’t called the election for Joe Biden. (One America News has also equivocated.)
The network is gambling that it can win a larger audience of Trump fans by parroting the Trump campaign argument that the election isn’t settled until the Electoral College meets in December, and anything can happen until then, and anyway, there was a ton of fraud, didn’t you know? (I contacted Newsmax on Monday to ask for their reasoning for not calling the election and have yet to hear back. But all of the reasons I just cited are ones it has presented on air.)
And at a time when the president has lost affection for Fox News, it just might work.
You probably get Newsmax in your home. You just might not know it.
Newsmax (or, as it’s more properly known, Newsmax TV) launched in 2014, and it now reaches 75 million homes in the US on nearly all major cable and satellite platforms. (It also streams live on YouTube.) In channel guides, it usually lurks just beyond the CNN/Fox News/MSNBC trifecta, patiently waiting for you to find it. That doesn’t necessarily mean a lot of people are watching, although viewership has risen for Newsmax’s election coverage.
The channel is a product of Newsmax Media, whose flagship publication is the magazine Newsmax. Despite the name, Newsmax — in both its print and televised forms — features even less traditional news than Fox News or MSNBC. It’s almost all commentary, and it’s almost all pro-Trump.
The editorial view that whatever Trump is up to equals “news” is taken to absurd extremes. One of the network’s afternoon programs — the exceedingly strange Howie Carr Show — included a mention of the network’s daily curation of tweets that will make conservatives feel good (or at least outraged at Democrats). Why check out Twitter when you have producer Grace Curley of The Howie Carr Show pick out only the tweets you want to see?
So far as I can tell, Newsmax doesn’t go full arch-conservative. The network doesn’t give airtime to QAnon paranoiacs, at least that I’ve seen. But over the last few days, it has spent lots of time arguing that other media outlets jumped the gun in calling the election for Biden and that Trump still has a path to win this thing.
The network’s lineup of pundits is mostly made up of minor conservative talk radio hosts. Carr, for instance, hosts a right-wing radio show in the Boston area, and his one-hour Newsmax show is a sort of distilled version of that.
Aesthetically, The Howie Carr Show may speak to Newsmax’s biggest challenge in catching up to Fox News, which is that it’s ugly as hell. Carr sits in front of an American flag background, staring not at the camera in front of him but just off to its side, while Curley says things to him off-camera and he reacts. It’s one of the weirdest things I’ve ever seen on TV, only a couple of steps above public-access television but with just high enough production values to make you wonder why it’s not better than it is.
Outside of Carr and a handful of other talk radio figures, Newsmax has a handful of hosts who are known to folks outside the conservative media bubble. Former Trump press secretary Sean Spicer has a show. Game Change co-author Mark Halperin, who lost his jobs at NBC News, MSNBC, and Showtime in 2017 after multiple allegations of sexual harassment, has occasionally dropped by Newsmax to offer his take on how Trump can still win. Halperin also hosts a series where he holds video-conferencing “focus groups.” Footage from that show is excerpted in Newsmax’s other programming to feature the group’s most pro-Trump participants, seemingly with the goal of letting the network’s Trump-friendly viewership feel like there are more people like them out there.
It’s grim television, honestly — ugly to watch, even beyond its “cult of Trump” trappings, because it’s so clunky in its composition and aesthetics, like a Daily Show parody of a 24-hour news network. At least Fox News is compelling — very high-gloss and well-crafted, with all its swooshing graphics and attention-grabbing noise that make you want to keep tuning in.
Yet Newsmax is making a bid that aesthetics don’t matter. No, what matters to its target audience is adherence to a party line.
There’s room to Fox News’s right, believe it or not. And Newsmax has competition, too.
The obvious territory to explore in the cable news sphere would seem to be on the left. MSNBC is nominally to the left of centrist CNN, but only a bit, particularly compared to Fox News’s rightward tilt. So in theory, an overtly leftist cable news channel seems like a niche to be filled. But the up-for-grabs audience of democratic socialists, social justice advocates, and other assorted leftists doesn’t really watch cable news; this demographic skews young and toward websites, social media, and podcasts.
In contrast, the right-leaning audience watches lots of cable news because it skews older. And within that sphere, Fox News’s coverage of the 2020 election has become a point of contention, particularly when it comes to the network’s call of Arizona for Joe Biden on election night. Though the call appears to have since been borne out, with many other networks following suit, it seems at odds with just how close the state’s vote totals have turned out to be. The president himself has been angered by this dynamic, according to a Washington Post article on election week.
And Fox News’s incredulity at the idea that Trump could still win the election is only furthering the sense that the network is not sufficiently in Trump’s corner and, thus, can’t be trusted by true conservatives. The result is that, if Newsmax has a larger point in this post-election week, it seems to be that Fox News is over, and Newsmax is the future.
Carr’s show takes callers, and in listening to what they have to say, this message has come through loud and clear. One caller who made it to air on Monday spoke at length about how bad Fox News had gotten and how much more he loves Newsmax now. (Monday was apparently the caller’s first day of watching Newsmax.) The caller said he longed for a Trump TV network; Carr mused that if Trump were to lose the election — as if that hasn’t already happened — he might end up with a show on Newsmax.
The race to win over the Trump diehards is the true battle Newsmax finds itself in. The network is unlikely to overtake Fox News in the ratings, but if it can chip away at the Fox News viewership, it could easily become a credible alternative among an audience who simply wants to hear more about how Trump is doing, with occasional check-ins on stock prices. (Covid-19 was barely mentioned at all in the Newsmax coverage I watched.)
But Newsmax is not the only competitor in this space — One America News (OAN) and BlazeTV being the others — and Newsmax’s bet that not calling the election for Biden will curry favor among Trump fans is a smart ploy from this point of view. If Trump really does want to do a cable news talk show, OAN would seem to be an obvious choice to broadcast it (as the president has mentioned how much he likes it now), but Newsmax could come from behind with its dedication to selling the Trump party line as much as possible. (For its part, OAN put up a Reuters article on Saturday saying Biden had won, but it has since pulled that article from its website.)
Giving credence to the idea that Biden stole the election and Trump is the true winner is dangerous, particularly if doing so creates a sizable number of people who believe Biden is an illegitimate president. At best, it will only further polarize an already deeply polarized country; at worst ... well, it’s not pleasant to imagine.
I’m confident that Newsmax’s response to this argument would be something like, “Well, you thought Trump was an illegitimate president all these years!” But that would leave out the context that Trump clearly lost the popular vote in 2016 — a divide that exposed the growing rift between a majority of the country’s voters and the handful of voters who live in swing states and, by extension, matter most.
Or the network might gesture to occasional mainstream media coverage as a point in its favor. On Tuesday morning, the network trumpeted a Fast Company headline reading “Newsmax could end up being the Fox News of the post-Trump era,” not mentioning that by the network’s standard, the idea of a “post-Trump era” is still uncertain.
But on Newsmax, it doesn’t really matter if Trump wins or loses: Either way, the winner will be Newsmax.


vox--2020-11-12--How North Carolina and Maine dashed Senate Democrats’ hopes of a “blue wave”

Democrats pinned their hopes of retaking the Senate on four key races this year , but they ultimately failed in two of them .
Democrats flipped Colorado and Arizona last week — half of the seats they need to get to a bare majority .
But they fell short in North Carolina and Maine .
They also lost races in more than a half dozen other more conservative states including Iowa , Montana , Texas , and South Carolina .
The dynamics in the states they lost were different : Former Vice President Joe Biden finished with a strong lead @ @ @ @ @ @ @ voters split their ticket between him and longtime incumbent Sen. Susan Collins ( R ) .
Meanwhile , President Donald Trump narrowly won North Carolina , with Sen. Thom Tillis ( R ) performing closely in line with him .
To put some numbers on it : Democratic House Speaker Sara Gideon lost to Collins by as much as 9 points , after polls generally favored her to win , sometimes by a large margin .
( About 5 percent of the vote had yet to be tallied on November 11 , however @ @ @ @ @ @ @ tracker . )
And in North Carolina , Cunningham was defeated by Tillis by roughly 2 points , though polls had shown Cunningham with a slight edge .
Understanding why each type of candidate failed is crucial for Democrats as they look ahead to an extraordinarily uphill battle to retake the majority in the Senate .
At the end of a hard-fought race , Susan Collins won reelection for her fifth term on the strength of her 24-year independent brand in Maine .
Collins did what many political prognosticators thought would be nearly @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Trump voters ( without saying if she ’ d vote for Trump herself ) and convinced some supporters of President-elect Joe Biden to vote for her as well .
Colby College pollster and political science professor Dan Shea estimated as much as 15-20 percent of Maine voters split their tickets in the 2020 election .
“ That ’ s why she was able to do so well , ” Shea said bluntly .
“ I thought Sen. Collins was going to finish her career because of this strong anti-Trump vote across the state @ @ @ @ @ @ @ would split off.
” Collins was expected to prevail in Maine ’ s northern , rural , and traditionally more Republican Second Congressional District — her home district — even if some voters there broke for Biden and kept supporting the district ’ s Democratic Rep. Jared Golden .
What was surprising to Maine politics experts was the degree to which Collins also overperformed in the more liberal and southern First Congressional District .
Collins won in more Democratic areas like southern York County , where Biden won handily .
“ I figured @ @ @ @ @ @ @ First Congressional District , ” said University of Maine political science professor Mark Brewer .
Some early number-crunching from Sabato Crystal Ball associate editor J .
Miles Coleman suggests how Collins won : keeping the margins with Gideon close in the First Congressional District and blowing them out of the water in the Second .
Going into her toughest reelection , Collins ran a unique campaign among Senate Republicans ; she barely talked about the polarizing Republican president and refused to say whether she supported him or would vote for him in the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ running against Gideon , she was running against the dislike for Trump , ” Portland , Maine , real estate developer Joe Boulos , a longtime Collins supporter and friend , told Vox .
“ I agree with the strategy .
Between her Kavanaugh vote and if she had come out for Trump , I don ’ t know if she would have lost — but it would have been a lot closer.
” Democrats had always known Maine would be tough , but they saw an opening after Hillary Clinton won the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a Republican district in 2018 .
Gideon ran a campaign tying Collins to Trump and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell .
“ There was a very strong challenge from Democrats here , it will be the closest margin for a reelection campaign she ’ s faced since the ’ 90s , ” a Democratic strategist told Vox .
“ The reality is that Sen. Collins was an incumbent who had been there for two decades in a small state , who had won her last reelection with 70 percent of the vote.
” @ @ @ @ @ @ @ bet that her pragmatic brand in her home state and the millions she ’ s brought to Maine in federal grants was strong enough for her to win reelection .
She consistently argued that if Republicans held the majority , she would be next in line to chair the powerful Senate Appropriations Committee .
Collins also made the Paycheck Protection Program and the small-business loans it generated following passage of the CARES Act a large part of her argument for why she should get another term .
Cook Political Report ’ s Senate @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s seen anecdotal evidence to indicate that some voters may have split their ticket in order to ensure Democrats didn ’ t have control of both chambers of Congress , in addition to the presidency .
“ She had to run a different race than she had before , ” Brewer said .
“ Susan Collins has never had to run a base reelection campaign , and she did that to a certain extent here .
But I ’ m not sure that ’ s generalizable anywhere else than Collins in Maine.
” @ @ @ @ @ @ @ this year , with a war chest of close to $ 70 million , it looks like Collins has her seat for as long as she wants it .
In North Carolina , the race was always going to be close .
According to the RealClearPolitics polling average , Cunningham led — but by just 2.6 points , on average .
North Carolina was among the races viewed as a true toss-up .
One possible reason Cunningham couldn ’ t pull off a win is that Trump ’ s support there was much @ @ @ @ @ @ @ won the state , and it would have been tough for any Democrat down the ballot to win .
“ I never believed that Cunningham would meaningfully outperform Biden , ” says North Carolina State University political science professor Steven Greene .
“ We really saw a lot of voters who showed up because of Donald Trump and voted down-ballot for a Republican candidate , ” says Aisha Dew , a North Carolina Democratic strategist and political director for Higher Heights , a group dedicated to electing more Black women to political office @ @ @ @ @ @ @ was just a bad candidate .
News of Cunningham ’ s extramarital affair , which first broke in early October , may have played a role in deterring certain swing voters .
( Trump has been credibly accused of having affairs and has been credibly accused of sexually assaulting multiple women .
He denies the allegations . )
Chris Cooper , a political science professor at Western Carolina University , argued that both the news itself and Cunningham ’ s handling of it likely reduced the momentum of the campaign in its final @ @ @ @ @ @ @ his character came out , it cut against his primary messaging , ” Cooper said .
“ His response to the scandal was to ghost everyone for a week and a half or so , and really turn the volume down on his campaign ... at the same time , Tillis turned up the volume.
” Either way , it didn ’ t work out for Cunningham — or Biden , who also did not get the narrow victory polls suggested .
“ We think Democrats underperformed among independents in North Carolina , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Morris .
Democrats may want to think carefully about the state moving forward .
Republican Sen. Richard Burr is retiring , and his seat is up for election in 2022 .
One model of success for Democrats in the state is Democratic Gov .
Roy Cooper , who was reelected this year even as Tillis and Trump won .
Cooper got more support from independents and Republicans compared to Cunningham and Biden , according to early exit polls .
Cooper ’ s success comes down to favorable impressions of how he ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ might benefit from the same thing successful Republican governors in the Northeast do : Reliably partisan voters may be willing to take a chance on the opposite party for the governorship rather than tip the party balance in Washington .
The fight for the Senate in 2021 isn ’ t quite over yet Democrats do have one last remaining hope for retaking a Senate majority : two runoff elections in Georgia .
To be clear , this strategy is a long shot .
Special elections typically go badly for the party that just @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is a historically Republican state .
“ We haven ’ t had many general runoffs .
The one constant has been Republicans won all of them , ” University of Georgia political science professor Charles Bullock recently told Vox .
“ Republicans have done a better job of getting their voters back to the polls.
” Still , there are positive signs for Democrats this year .
As of Wednesday , Biden is ahead of President Donald Trump by a little over 14,000 votes , although that race hasn ’ t officially been @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Decision Desk .
In one race , incumbent Republican Sen. David Perdue faces Democrat Jon Ossoff .
In the other , Republican Sen. Kelly Loeffler , appointed to the seat in 2019 , faces Democrat Rev .
Raphael Warnock .
An Atlanta Journal-Constitution poll released Wednesday showed two close races , with Loeffler 1 point ahead of Warnock , 49 to 48 percent , and Perdue leading Ossoff by 4 points — 50 to 46 percent .
One reason Georgia is becoming competitive is that the Atlanta metro area is booming , and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ young and diverse .
Increasingly , they ’ re voting Democratic .
Amid the influx to the Atlanta suburbs , political observers in Georgia have been watching elections get closer and closer .
In the 2018 governor ’ s race , Democrat Stacey Abrams lost to then-Secretary of State Brian Kemp by a little more than 50,000 votes — a scare for Georgia Republicans .
Abrams and other Democrats have gotten a boost from Georgia ’ s automatic voter registration — a program that helped register more than 5 million of the state @ @ @ @ @ @ @ It was enough to flip the state for Biden this November , and Democrats have less than two months to recapture the magic .

Democrats pinned their hopes of retaking the Senate on four key races this year, but they ultimately failed in two of them.
Democrats flipped Colorado and Arizona last week — half of the seats they need to get to a bare majority. But they fell short in North Carolina and Maine. They also lost races in more than a half dozen other more conservative states including Iowa, Montana, Texas, and South Carolina.
The dynamics in the states they lost were different: Former Vice President Joe Biden finished with a strong lead in Maine overall, suggesting that some voters split their ticket between him and longtime incumbent Sen. Susan Collins (R). Meanwhile, President Donald Trump narrowly won North Carolina, with Sen. Thom Tillis (R) performing closely in line with him.
To put some numbers on it: Democratic House Speaker Sara Gideon lost to Collins by as much as 9 points, after polls generally favored her to win, sometimes by a large margin. (About 5 percent of the vote had yet to be tallied on November 11, however, according to Decision Desk’s tracker.)
And in North Carolina, Cunningham was defeated by Tillis by roughly 2 points, though polls had shown Cunningham with a slight edge.
Understanding why each type of candidate failed is crucial for Democrats as they look ahead to an extraordinarily uphill battle to retake the majority in the Senate.
Susan Collins’s moderate brand won out in Maine
At the end of a hard-fought race, Susan Collins won reelection for her fifth term on the strength of her 24-year independent brand in Maine.
Collins did what many political prognosticators thought would be nearly impossible: She captured the support of Trump voters (without saying if she’d vote for Trump herself) and convinced some supporters of President-elect Joe Biden to vote for her as well.
Colby College pollster and political science professor Dan Shea estimated as much as 15-20 percent of Maine voters split their tickets in the 2020 election.
“That’s why she was able to do so well,” Shea said bluntly. “I thought Sen. Collins was going to finish her career because of this strong anti-Trump vote across the state. I didn’t think voters would split off.”
Collins was expected to prevail in Maine’s northern, rural, and traditionally more Republican Second Congressional District — her home district — even if some voters there broke for Biden and kept supporting the district’s Democratic Rep. Jared Golden. What was surprising to Maine politics experts was the degree to which Collins also overperformed in the more liberal and southern First Congressional District. Collins won in more Democratic areas like southern York County, where Biden won handily.
“I figured Gideon would do much better in the First Congressional District,” said University of Maine political science professor Mark Brewer.
Some early number-crunching from Sabato Crystal Ball associate editor J. Miles Coleman suggests how Collins won: keeping the margins with Gideon close in the First Congressional District and blowing them out of the water in the Second.
My current Maine CD #s w/@DecisionDeskHQ data:
Pres.
ME-1: 59.2% Biden, 38.0% Trump
ME-2: 51.4% Trump, 45.6% Biden#MESen
ME-1: 48.0% Gideon, 45.5% Collins
ME-2: 58.5% Collins, 34.9% Gideon
Biden crushed it in ME-1, kept ME-2 close. Collins crushed it in ME-2, kept ME-1 close. — J. Miles Coleman (@JMilesColeman) November 9, 2020
Going into her toughest reelection, Collins ran a unique campaign among Senate Republicans; she barely talked about the polarizing Republican president and refused to say whether she supported him or would vote for him in the election.
“She wasn’t running against Gideon, she was running against the dislike for Trump,” Portland, Maine, real estate developer Joe Boulos, a longtime Collins supporter and friend, told Vox. “I agree with the strategy. Between her Kavanaugh vote and if she had come out for Trump, I don’t know if she would have lost — but it would have been a lot closer.”
Democrats had always known Maine would be tough, but they saw an opening after Hillary Clinton won the state in 2016, and Golden flipped a Republican district in 2018. Gideon ran a campaign tying Collins to Trump and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell.
“There was a very strong challenge from Democrats here, it will be the closest margin for a reelection campaign she’s faced since the ’90s,” a Democratic strategist told Vox. “The reality is that Sen. Collins was an incumbent who had been there for two decades in a small state, who had won her last reelection with 70 percent of the vote.”
Collins, on the other hand, bet that her pragmatic brand in her home state and the millions she’s brought to Maine in federal grants was strong enough for her to win reelection. She consistently argued that if Republicans held the majority, she would be next in line to chair the powerful Senate Appropriations Committee. Collins also made the Paycheck Protection Program and the small-business loans it generated following passage of the CARES Act a large part of her argument for why she should get another term.
Cook Political Report’s Senate editor Jessica Taylor also said she’s seen anecdotal evidence to indicate that some voters may have split their ticket in order to ensure Democrats didn’t have control of both chambers of Congress, in addition to the presidency.
“She had to run a different race than she had before,” Brewer said. “Susan Collins has never had to run a base reelection campaign, and she did that to a certain extent here. But I’m not sure that’s generalizable anywhere else than Collins in Maine.”
If Democrats couldn’t unseat her this year, with a war chest of close to $70 million, it looks like Collins has her seat for as long as she wants it.
Strong Republican turnout benefited Trump and Tillis
In North Carolina, the race was always going to be close. According to the RealClearPolitics polling average, Cunningham led — but by just 2.6 points, on average. North Carolina was among the races viewed as a true toss-up.
One possible reason Cunningham couldn’t pull off a win is that Trump’s support there was much stronger than some polls anticipated: Trump won the state, and it would have been tough for any Democrat down the ballot to win.
“I never believed that Cunningham would meaningfully outperform Biden,” says North Carolina State University political science professor Steven Greene.
“We really saw a lot of voters who showed up because of Donald Trump and voted down-ballot for a Republican candidate,” says Aisha Dew, a North Carolina Democratic strategist and political director for Higher Heights, a group dedicated to electing more Black women to political office.
Another possible reason is that Cunningham was just a bad candidate. News of Cunningham’s extramarital affair, which first broke in early October, may have played a role in deterring certain swing voters. (Trump has been credibly accused of having affairs and has been credibly accused of sexually assaulting multiple women. He denies the allegations.)
Chris Cooper, a political science professor at Western Carolina University, argued that both the news itself and Cunningham’s handling of it likely reduced the momentum of the campaign in its final weeks.
“When the allegations about his character came out, it cut against his primary messaging,” Cooper said. “His response to the scandal was to ghost everyone for a week and a half or so, and really turn the volume down on his campaign ... at the same time, Tillis turned up the volume.”
Either way, it didn’t work out for Cunningham — or Biden, who also did not get the narrow victory polls suggested. “We think Democrats underperformed among independents in North Carolina,” says East Carolina University pollster John Morris.
Democrats may want to think carefully about the state moving forward. Republican Sen. Richard Burr is retiring, and his seat is up for election in 2022. One model of success for Democrats in the state is Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper, who was reelected this year even as Tillis and Trump won. Cooper got more support from independents and Republicans compared to Cunningham and Biden, according to early exit polls.
Cooper’s success comes down to favorable impressions of how he’s handled the coronavirus response. But he might benefit from the same thing successful Republican governors in the Northeast do: Reliably partisan voters may be willing to take a chance on the opposite party for the governorship rather than tip the party balance in Washington.
The fight for the Senate in 2021 isn’t quite over yet
Democrats do have one last remaining hope for retaking a Senate majority: two runoff elections in Georgia.
To be clear, this strategy is a long shot. Special elections typically go badly for the party that just captured the White House, and Georgia is a historically Republican state.
“We haven’t had many general runoffs. The one constant has been Republicans won all of them,” University of Georgia political science professor Charles Bullock recently told Vox. “Republicans have done a better job of getting their voters back to the polls.”
Still, there are positive signs for Democrats this year. As of Wednesday, Biden is ahead of President Donald Trump by a little over 14,000 votes, although that race hasn’t officially been called by Vox’s elections partner Decision Desk.
In one race, incumbent Republican Sen. David Perdue faces Democrat Jon Ossoff. In the other, Republican Sen. Kelly Loeffler, appointed to the seat in 2019, faces Democrat Rev. Raphael Warnock. An Atlanta Journal-Constitution poll released Wednesday showed two close races, with Loeffler 1 point ahead of Warnock, 49 to 48 percent, and Perdue leading Ossoff by 4 points — 50 to 46 percent.
One reason Georgia is becoming competitive is that the Atlanta metro area is booming, and a lot of people moving there are young and diverse. Increasingly, they’re voting Democratic.
Amid the influx to the Atlanta suburbs, political observers in Georgia have been watching elections get closer and closer. In the 2018 governor’s race, Democrat Stacey Abrams lost to then-Secretary of State Brian Kemp by a little more than 50,000 votes — a scare for Georgia Republicans. Abrams and other Democrats have gotten a boost from Georgia’s automatic voter registration — a program that helped register more than 5 million of the state’s total 7,587,625 registered voters.
It was enough to flip the state for Biden this November, and Democrats have less than two months to recapture the magic.


vox--2020-11-12--The disturbing surge in Covid-19 hospitalizations, in one chart

More Americans are currently hospitalized with Covid-19 than at any other point in the pandemic , a grim indicator that the third big wave of cases in the US may be the worst wave to date .
On November 11 , 65,368 people across the United States were in the hospital after testing positive for the novel coronavirus , according to data reported by the Covid Tracking Project .
That ’ s significantly higher than the last peak of 59,940 recorded on April 15 , when the New York City area was the epicenter of the US outbreak .
( @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the national and state hospital data have been erratic and incomplete , and reported totals may continue to shift . )
What ’ s clear from the data is that Covid-19 has migrated across the country to new hot spot regions this fall .
In the spring , hospitalizations were overwhelmingly concentrated in the Northeast .
In the summer , more than half of hospitalized Covid-19 patients were in the South and West : states like Arizona , California , Florida , Georgia , and Texas .
Now the Midwest , Great Plains @ @ @ @ @ @ @ hot spots , and some former hot spots are warming back up as well , with cases and hospitalizations beginning to surge again .
“ There ’ s so many places , with so many people , that the numbers are just drastically higher , ” said Daniel McQuillen , an assistant professor of medicine at Tufts and a senior physician in the division of infectious diseases at Beth Israel Lahey Health , at a Wednesday Infectious Diseases Society of America briefing .
As of November 11 , Texas had the highest number @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ) .
Illinois was in second place with 5,042 people in the hospital ; other Midwestern states like Michigan , Indiana , and Wisconsin have seen spikes in cases in recent weeks and now have more than 2,000 people hospitalized each .
“ The hospitalization number is the best indicator of where we are , ” Eric Topol , a professor of molecular medicine and director of the Scripps Research Translational Institute , told Vox this summer .
That ’ s because it ’ s a better measurement of the severity of the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ only finds a fraction of cases and includes more mild cases .
“ We ’ re going to go to new heights in the pandemic that we haven ’ t seen before .
Not that what we saw before wasn ’ t horrifying enough.
” Some states like Utah and North Dakota have lower total hospitalizations but also fewer hospitals and hospital beds — and they ’ re now reaching a woeful tipping point of hospitals stretched to maximum capacity .
“ Here in Salt Lake City , we provide a lot of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ] to people in four states as far away as Montana , Arizona , and Wyoming ... and our hospitals and caregivers are extraordinarily stressed , ” Andrew Pavia , the chief of pediatric infectious diseases at the University of Utah School of Medicine , said at the IDSA briefing .
“ Our ICUs are full , but that includes overflow ICUs that have been purpose-built , taking advantage of the time we ’ ve had to plan.
” This was , unfortunately , to be expected ( although it wasn ’ t @ @ @ @ @ @ @ turned cooler and states failed to fully control their outbreaks , transmission picked up when people moved indoors .
Nearly all the states currently experiencing an increase in new cases and hospitalizations also did not experience major outbreaks in the spring or summer , so residents have been less fearful and taking less action to prevent the spread of the virus .
“ There was a political climate where there ’ s distrust of government and reluctance to take harsh measures , ” said Pavia .
“ Many of these states did not @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and some don ’ t even have them today and have very limited restrictions on mass gatherings.
” Deaths are ticking up again too , reaching 1,592 on November 11 , reversing a steady decline that had begun in early May after the first wave and in August after the second wave .
Cumulatively , 10.2 million Americans have tested positive for Covid-19 since the pandemic began , and more than 233,000 of them have died .
With hospitalizations surging and several states still reporting thousands of new cases a day , experts @ @ @ @ @ @ @ late fall and winter .
The new hospitalizations , and the untenable pressure they ’ re putting on the health care system , are also a reminder of how critical it is for states to implement and enforce measures like mandatory face masks , restrictions on bars and restaurants , and for the federal government to fix testing and contact tracing problems .
“ It should be an all-points bulletin to really bear down on this , because otherwise there ’ s no limit on where this might go , ” said Topol @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and beds for Covid-19 patients The good news is that infectious disease experts think many hospitals are much better prepared to handle surges in Covid-19 patients than they were in the spring .
For the most part , they have the equipment they need and they know how to deploy it .
They also have more standardized protocol for treating the sickest patients .
Yet hospitals in hot spots across the country are maxing out their staff , equipment , and beds , with doctors warning that the worst-case scenario of hospital resources @ @ @ @ @ @ @ their states don ’ t get better control of the coronavirus .
“ ICU beds don ’ t take care of people — you need staff , ” said Pavia of the University of Utah School of Medicine .
“ And one of the things that many of the Western states have in common is a relative shortage of the people we need to take care of very sick people during a pandemic like this : ICU doctors , probably most importantly ICU nurses , and infectious disease physicians , respiratory therapists .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ for eight or nine months , and three months into the surge , they ’ re exhausted , they ’ re stressed.
” Staffing is a universal problem in hot spots .
Gov .
Gary Herbert of Utah said the state will have to bring in out-of-state nurses to help with the surge , and officials and health care providers in South Dakota , Tennessee , Arizona , and Wisconsin are requesting them too : In Texas , officials are setting up medical tents in El Paso and Lubbock in response to the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a dwindling number of hospital beds .
“ El Paso , Texas , is almost completely out of ICU beds ; Lubbock , the same thing , ” said McQuillen .
“ We are the 11th-largest city in the state of Texas and we have two field hospitals on their way to town , ” Jarrett Atkinson , Lubbock ’ s city manager , told KCBD on Tuesday .
“ I can absolutely assure you that never in my career did I think we would be deploying field hospitals to Lubbock , Texas.
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ Paso and Lubbock have been “ much less stringent with their populations [ mandating ] simple things like wearing masks , and socially distancing.
” He compared that to Massachusetts and other Northeast states where he says strict measures during the spring surge made a big difference in reversing the steep climb in cases and hospitalizations .
Yet too many states ignored that critical lesson , and now are paying the price .
Daily deaths are creeping up again but are still far below the earlier peak While daily Covid-19 hospitalizations are surging @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , reached 1,562 on November 11 , the highest it has been since May during the first surge , according to the Covid Tracking Project .
It ’ s an ominous sign that deaths could reach unprecedented levels in the coming weeks and months , given that cases and hospitalizations are now at new highs .
It ’ s possible , experts say , that fewer people who are hospitalized will end up dying in this winter stage of the pandemic as compared to the spring .
As Vox ’ s Julia Belluz @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in mortality in the US and Europe in the past several months , as doctors ’ understanding of Covid-19 and how to treat it has improved : That said , if hospitals in the hard-hit states run out of beds and staff to treat the incoming flow of patients , more people who could have been saved may die .
When ICU staff are stretched , “ ICU patients just didn ’ t get the same attention , ” intensive care doctor Lakshman Swamy , who works with the Cambridge Health Alliance , @ @ @

Far more Americans are currently hospitalized with Covid-19 than at any other point in the pandemic, a grim indicator that the third big wave of cases in the US is the worst wave to date by a lot.
On December 2, 100,226 people across the United States were in the hospital after testing positive for the novel coronavirus, according to data reported by the Covid Tracking Project. That’s significantly higher than the last two peaks recorded on April 15 and July 23, when the New York City and the Southeast and Southwest, respectively, were epicenters of the US outbreak. (As the Covid Tracking Project notes, the national and state hospital data have been erratic and incomplete, and reported totals may continue to shift.)
What’s clear from the data is that Covid-19 migrated across the country to new regions this fall. In the spring, hospitalizations were overwhelmingly concentrated in the Northeast. In the summer, more than half of hospitalized Covid-19 patients were in the South and West: states like Arizona, California, Florida, Georgia, and Texas.
Now, every state is battling an active outbreak, and many of them are severe. “There’s so many places, with so many people, that the numbers are just drastically higher,” said Daniel McQuillen, an assistant professor of medicine at Tufts and a senior physician in the division of infectious diseases at Beth Israel Lahey Health, at a November Infectious Diseases Society of America briefing.
“There are no more hot spots,” said Murtaza Akhter, an emergency medicine physician with Valleywise Health Medical Center in Phoenix, Arizona. “Everywhere is a hot spot.”
As of December 3, California had the highest number of hospitalizations of any state (9,702), and Texas was in second place with 9,151 people in the hospital; Midwestern states like Michigan, Illinois, and Ohio have also seen record spikes in cases in recent weeks and now have more than 4,000 people hospitalized each.
“The hospitalization number is the best indicator of where we are,” Eric Topol, a professor of molecular medicine and director of the Scripps Research Translational Institute, told Vox this summer. That’s because it’s a better measurement of the severity of the pandemic than Covid-19 testing, which only finds a fraction of cases and includes more mild cases. “We’re going to go to new heights in the pandemic that we haven’t seen before. Not that what we saw before wasn’t horrifying enough.”
Some states like Utah and North Dakota have lower total hospitalizations but also fewer hospitals and hospital beds — and they’re now reaching a woeful tipping point of hospitals stretched to maximum capacity.
“Here in Salt Lake City, we provide a lot of [specialized infectious disease and ICU care] to people in four states as far away as Montana, Arizona, and Wyoming ... and our hospitals and caregivers are extraordinarily stressed,” Andrew Pavia, the chief of pediatric infectious diseases at the University of Utah School of Medicine, said at the IDSA briefing. “Our ICUs are full, but that includes overflow ICUs that have been purpose-built, taking advantage of the time we’ve had to plan.”
This was, unfortunately, to be expected (although it wasn’t inevitable). As the weather has turned cooler and states failed to fully control their outbreaks, transmission picked up when people moved indoors. Nearly all the states currently experiencing an increase in new cases and hospitalizations also did not experience major outbreaks in the spring or summer, so residents were less fearful and took less action to prevent the spread of the virus.
“There was a political climate where there’s distrust of government and reluctance to take harsh measures” in places like Utah, Pavia said. “Many of these states did not have mask mandates until very recently, and some don’t even have them today and have very limited restrictions on mass gatherings.”
Deaths have nearly hit a new record high as well, reaching 2,733 on December 2, reversing a steady decline that had begun in early May after the first wave and in August after the second wave.
Cumulatively, 13.9 million Americans have tested positive for Covid-19 since the pandemic began, and more than 267,000 of them have died. With hospitalizations surging and several states reporting thousands of new cases a day, CDC Director Robert Redfield said Wednesday Americans are in for “the most difficult in the public health history of this nation.”
The new hospitalizations, and the untenable pressure they’re putting on the health care system, are also a reminder of how critical it is for states to implement and enforce measures like mandatory face masks, restrictions on bars and restaurants, and for the federal government to fix testing and contact tracing problems. “It should be an all-points bulletin to really bear down on this, because otherwise there’s no limit on where this might go,” said Topol.
Hospitals are running out of staff and beds for Covid-19 patients
The good news is that infectious disease experts think many hospitals are better prepared to handle surges in Covid-19 patients than they were in the spring. For the most part, they have the equipment they need and they know how to deploy it. They also have more standardized protocol for treating the sickest patients.
Yet hospitals in hot spots across the country are maxing out their staff, equipment, and beds, with doctors and nurses warning that the worst-case scenario of hospital resources being overwhelmed have already arrived as their states have failed to get control of the coronavirus.
“The surge of Covid-19 patients takes away from our ability to care for the sick patients that are already in Arkansas,” said a nurse at a major health system in Little Rock, who asked to go unnamed fearing retaliation from her employer. “We have so many nurses quarantined that we’re not able to staff our oncology unit appropriately, and our patients are being negatively affected. Covid-19 is right now overburdening our health care system in Arkansas.”
Hospitals in several states are also straining to find enough specialists to treat very sick Covid-19 patients.
“ICU beds don’t take care of people — you need staff,” Pavia said. “And one of the things that many of the Western states have in common is a relative shortage of the people we need to take care of very sick people during a pandemic like this: ICU doctors, probably most importantly ICU nurses, and infectious disease physicians, respiratory therapists. These folks have been working flat out for eight or nine months, and three months into the surge, they’re exhausted, they’re stressed.”
Staffing is a universal problem in hot spots. Gov. Gary Herbert of Utah said the state will have to bring in out-of-state nurses to help with the surge, and officials and health care providers in South Dakota, Tennessee, Arizona, and Wisconsin are requesting them too
In Texas, officials are setting up medical tents in El Paso and Lubbock in response to the rapid rise in hospitalized Covid-19 patients and a dwindling number of hospital beds. “El Paso, Texas, is almost completely out of ICU beds; Lubbock, the same thing,” said McQuillen.
“We are the 11th-largest city in the state of Texas and we have two field hospitals on their way to town,” Jarrett Atkinson, Lubbock’s city manager, told KCBD in November. “I can absolutely assure you that never in my career did I think we would be deploying field hospitals to Lubbock, Texas.”
According to McQuillen, both El Paso and Lubbock have been “much less stringent with their populations [mandating] simple things like wearing masks, and socially distancing.” He compared that to Massachusetts and other Northeast states where he says strict measures during the spring surge made a big difference in reversing the steep climb in cases and hospitalizations. Yet too many states ignored that critical lesson, and now are paying the price.
Daily deaths are creeping up again but are still far below the earlier peak
While daily Covid-19 hospitalizations are surging, another key metric, daily deaths, reached 2,733 on December 2, the highest it has been since April during the first surge, according to the Covid Tracking Project. It’s an ominous sign that deaths will reach horrifying new levels in the coming weeks and months, given that cases and hospitalizations are now at new highs.
It’s possible, experts say, that fewer people who are hospitalized will end up dying in this winter stage of the pandemic as compared to the spring. As Vox’s Julia Belluz reported, there have been significant improvements in mortality in the US and Europe in the past several months, as doctors’ understanding of Covid-19 and how to treat it has improved:
Now, there’s strong evidence that common steroids like dexamethasone can reduce the risk of mortality in severely sick inpatients. Putting patients to rest on their stomachs instead of their backs (a practice known as proning) also seems to help. Though there’s still a lot of progress to be made, the treatment approach has become more standardized over time, said Jen Manne-Goehler, an infectious disease doctor at Brigham and Women’s and Massachusetts General hospitals. When she started treating Covid-19 patients in the spring, it felt like practice was changing every few days. Now it’s more streamlined — and that’s undoubtedly helping with survival, too.
That said, if hospitals in the hard-hit states run out of beds and staff to treat the incoming flow of patients, more people who could have been saved may die. When ICU staff were stretched in the spring, “ICU patients just didn’t get the same attention,” intensive care doctor Lakshman Swamy, who works with the Cambridge Health Alliance, told Belluz.
Murtaza Akhter, the Arizona doctor, worries that his emergency room will be completely overwhelmed around Christmas, about one month after Thanksgiving, when many people are expected to have been infected after ignoring or the public health guidance to avoid family gatherings. He says he’s most worried about the “borderline patients who may otherwise have been admitted to the ER — they may now be more likely to go home because there are no hospital beds. And of those people, a very distinct fraction will have a worse outcome.”
This is one big reason why overtaxed hospitals will lead to more deaths. “This Covid-19 surge really has a huge downstream effect everywhere, not just on Covid patients but everybody else because it’s not like car accidents magically stopped or heart attacks stopped, they’re still there. The ones who do come in and get discharged, more often than many get worse outcomes.”