vox--2020-03-24--The Fox News moment that revealed a dangerously confused president

One moment during President Donald Trump ’ s Fox News appearance on Tuesday served as the starkest example yet of how much he does not understand the seriousness of the coronavirus pandemic : He urged Americans to flock to churches on Easter Sunday , just 19 days away .
Trump told Fox News anchor Bill Hemmer he selected Easter as the day he wants businesses to reopen , saying he ’ d like to see “ packed churches all over our country ” — the exact type of large gatherings that the CDC , the WHO , and Trump ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ suspended to help stop the spread of the virus .
“ I would love to have it opened by Easter , ” Trump said , speaking about when he sees the country returning to normal life .
Since Sunday , Trump has repeatedly indicated he plans to recommend that the White House ’ s social-distancing guidelines be relaxed and Americans return to work , even though experts say the country hasn ’ t yet experienced the worst of the coronavirus pandemic .
Trump ’ s televised briefings , tweets , and appearances on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ about whether the president understands the threat of the coronavirus or how to best slow it down .
As he spreads messages at odds with public health experts , he ’ s putting real lives at risk .
Trump ’ s case for ending social distancing has no support from health experts During Tuesday ’ s Fox News town hall — which took place a day after the US recorded its highest single-day death toll amid the coronavirus crisis so far — Trump rested his case for relaxing social distancing by comparing possible @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that we just take to be facts of life , like the flu or car wrecks .
Here ’ s what Trump had to say in response to Hemmer ’ s question about why resuming something approximating normal American social and business life as soon as possible is a good idea ( the video follows ) : Already facing a difficult reelection campaign before the outbreak of a deadly pandemic his government was unprepared to deal with , it ’ s understandable that Trump wants to stabilize an economy decimated by the social-distancing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ But his comments ignore two big ways in which the coronavirus can ’ t be compared to the flu or car crashes : It ’ s far more contagious than either , and far more deadly .
One reason the coronavirus is so concerning is how contagious it is .
Without social distancing , experts believe one infected person could infect up to 2.5 other individuals .
Because the coronavirus is so contagious , it could easily overwhelm America ’ s public health system , leaving hospitals too full to properly treat patients @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s already on the cusp of happening in New York state , where Gov .
Andrew Cuomo pleaded with the federal government earlier Tuesday to provide more medical gear , including much-needed ventilators to help patients with severe Covid-19 cases breathe .
Car crashes , of course , are not contagious , nor are there so many of them that they overrun hospitals or threaten the nation ’ s supply of medical masks and ventilators .
That ’ s also the case with the flu .
According to epidemiologists , an individual @ @ @ @ @ @ @ spreading it to up to 1.3 people — about equal to coronavirus ’ s contagion level with strong social distancing .
Despite this , Trump insisted the flu is more dangerous and singled out Cuomo for criticism .
The president blamed the governor for a problem he ’ s powerless to solve , saying , “ He ’ s supposed to be buying his own ventilators.
” ( Cuomo and other governors argue it ’ s suboptimal for states to bid up prices by competing against each other for supplies , and that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ federal government . )
At another point , Trump attacked Cuomo for not doing more on his own to prevent travel from China as the virus spread there .
Experts , of course , argue that at best , travel bans like the one Trump instituted at a national level buy time for governments to act — time Trump failed to use .
At worst , they ’ re useless .
The whole point of the “ 15 days to stop the spread ” campaign that Trump embraced just nine days ago is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ flatten the curve ” of cases and make sure hospitals aren ’ t overwhelmed .
But Trump encouraging people to go back to work runs the risk of allowing the virus to spread out of control at a time when places like New York are already struggling to contain it .
Trump , however , clearly views the situation primarily as an economic crisis ( and thus , for him , a political one ) instead of one in which preventable deaths can be avoided .
Coronavirus is actually far deadlier than @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , roughly 36,560 people died in automobile accidents .
Another 38,000 died from flu-related causes in the winter ending that same year .
We don ’ t yet know how many deaths the coronavirus will cause .
But a recent study pegged the mortality rate for symptomatic coronavirus cases at 1.4 percent .
That may not sound devastating in a vacuum , but it is significant , as that rate means the coronavirus could kill up to 1.1 million Americans if allowed to spread unchecked .
This is why it is important to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ have a coronavirus vaccine , meaning the best tool we have to slow the spread of the virus and minimize deaths is to practice social distancing until testing is so common that we know how far the virus has spread .
But Trump ’ s argument during the Fox News town hall ( and elsewhere ) was to insist that Americans have already learned the necessary lessons of social distancing and will be careful about practicing it at work .
But there ’ s really no way for a restaurant server to stay @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , nor is it feasible , for example , for people to practice distancing in crowded buses or factories .
Trump , however , doesn ’ t seem to understand the point of social distancing .
During an interview with Fox News that aired after the town hall , he revealed this by telling Hemmer that he hopes to see churches packed on Easter .
Experts say the most direct path to normalcy is not to just hope people manage not to infect each other , but to establish a rigorous testing regime @ @ @ @ @ @ @ understand where it might be safe to relax social distancing and which states and cities might require more restrictive quarantines .
But the Trump administration ’ s coronavirus response continues to be plagued by testing failures that hamper all of our abilities to develop a reliable picture of how far the virus has spread .
Asked about those failures during the town hall , Trump changed the topic before ultimately absolving himself of responsibility .
“ Nobody ever expected a thing like this , ” said Trump , who worked to dismantle America @ @ @ @ @ @ @ three years in office .
“ Nobody would say that million and millions of people [ would need to be ] tested.
” Fox News normally covers Trump in a fawning manner , but Tuesday ’ s virtual town hall took things up a notch .
At various points , White House coronavirus task force member Dr. Deborah Birx , Surgeon General Jerome Adams , and Fox News contributors Dr. Marc Siegel and Dr. Nicole Saphier went out of their way to praise the president : Others parts of the broadcast bordered on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , reality TV star Dr. Mehmet Oz asked Vice President Mike Pence a leading question about an unproven drug cocktail that Trump and a number of his Fox News supporters have promoted as a possible coronavirus treatment .
The town hall gave the impression of a dangerously misinformed president being propped up by sycophants who are unwilling or unable to ask him tough questions .
That danger will soon become even more palpable if Trump follows through with recommending that people go back to work and pack into churches — and , as @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the still-spreading virus .
The news moves fast .
To stay updated , follow Aaron Rupar on Twitter , and read more of Vox ’ s policy and politics coverage .

One moment during President Donald Trump’s Fox News appearance on Tuesday served as the starkest example yet of how much he does not understand the seriousness of the coronavirus pandemic: He urged Americans to flock to churches on Easter Sunday, just 19 days away.
Trump told Fox News anchor Bill Hemmer he selected Easter as the day he wants businesses to reopen, saying he’d like to see “packed churches all over our country” — the exact type of large gatherings that the CDC, the WHO, and Trump’s top health advisers have all urged suspended to help stop the spread of the virus.
“I would love to have it opened by Easter,” Trump said, speaking about when he sees the country returning to normal life.
“That would be a great American resurrection,” Hemmer replied.
Trump on ending social distancing: "I would love to have it opened by Easter." (That's April 12)
"That would be a great American resurrection," host Bill Hemmer replies. pic.twitter.com/G1AhP1biNI — Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) March 24, 2020
Since Sunday, Trump has repeatedly indicated he plans to recommend that the White House’s social-distancing guidelines be relaxed and Americans return to work, even though experts say the country hasn’t yet experienced the worst of the coronavirus pandemic.
Trump’s televised briefings, tweets, and appearances on Fox in recent days raise serious doubts about whether the president understands the threat of the coronavirus or how to best slow it down. As he spreads messages at odds with public health experts, he’s putting real lives at risk.
Trump’s case for ending social distancing has no support from health experts
During Tuesday’s Fox News town hall — which took place a day after the US recorded its highest single-day death toll amid the coronavirus crisis so far — Trump rested his case for relaxing social distancing by comparing possible exposure to the coronavirus with unfortunate things that we just take to be facts of life, like the flu or car wrecks.
Here’s what Trump had to say in response to Hemmer’s question about why resuming something approximating normal American social and business life as soon as possible is a good idea (the video follows):
Look, we lose thousands — I brought some numbers here — we lose thousands and thousands of people a year to the flu. We don’t turn the country off. Now, when I heard the number — you know, we average 37,000 people a year — can you believe that? And actually this year we’re having a bad flu system. But we lose thousands of people a year to the flu. We never turn the country off. We lose much more than that to automobile accidents. We didn’t call up the automobile companies and say, ‘Stop making cars. We don’t want any cars anymore.’ We have to get back to work.
Trump suggests going back to work during a pandemic is really no big deal because lots of people die from the flu and car accidents pic.twitter.com/pRTjmLH7xo — Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) March 24, 2020
Already facing a difficult reelection campaign before the outbreak of a deadly pandemic his government was unprepared to deal with, it’s understandable that Trump wants to stabilize an economy decimated by the social-distancing measures meant to stop the spread. But his comments ignore two big ways in which the coronavirus can’t be compared to the flu or car crashes: It’s far more contagious than either, and far more deadly.
Coronavirus is a highly contagious public health crisis
One reason the coronavirus is so concerning is how contagious it is. Without social distancing, experts believe one infected person could infect up to 2.5 other individuals.
Because the coronavirus is so contagious, it could easily overwhelm America’s public health system, leaving hospitals too full to properly treat patients and equipment in short supply. That’s already on the cusp of happening in New York state, where Gov. Andrew Cuomo pleaded with the federal government earlier Tuesday to provide more medical gear, including much-needed ventilators to help patients with severe Covid-19 cases breathe.
CUOMO: "FEMA is sending us 400 ventilators ... I need 30,000 ... you want a pat on the back for sending 400 ventilators? ... you're missing the magnitude of the problem." pic.twitter.com/9VtzlvVOEb — Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) March 24, 2020
Car crashes, of course, are not contagious, nor are there so many of them that they overrun hospitals or threaten the nation’s supply of medical masks and ventilators. That’s also the case with the flu. According to epidemiologists, an individual with the flu is at risk for spreading it to up to 1.3 people — about equal to coronavirus’s contagion level with strong social distancing.
Despite this, Trump insisted the flu is more dangerous and singled out Cuomo for criticism. The president blamed the governor for a problem he’s powerless to solve, saying, “He’s supposed to be buying his own ventilators.” (Cuomo and other governors argue it’s suboptimal for states to bid up prices by competing against each other for supplies, and that those purchases are best made by the federal government.)
At another point, Trump attacked Cuomo for not doing more on his own to prevent travel from China as the virus spread there. Experts, of course, argue that at best, travel bans like the one Trump instituted at a national level buy time for governments to act — time Trump failed to use. At worst, they’re useless.
"Do you blame the governor for that?" -- with a smug smirk on his face, Trump tries to pin blame for New York's coronavirus outbreak on Gov. Cuomo because he allowed people to travel from Asia back to New York City during the holidays pic.twitter.com/6syuTlbWdB — Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) March 24, 2020
The whole point of the “15 days to stop the spread” campaign that Trump embraced just nine days ago is that strict social distancing is necessary to “flatten the curve” of cases and make sure hospitals aren’t overwhelmed. But Trump encouraging people to go back to work runs the risk of allowing the virus to spread out of control at a time when places like New York are already struggling to contain it.
Trump, however, clearly views the situation primarily as an economic crisis (and thus, for him, a political one) instead of one in which preventable deaths can be avoided.
Coronavirus is actually far deadlier than the flu or car crashes
In 2018, roughly 36,560 people died in automobile accidents. Another 38,000 died from flu-related causes in the winter ending that same year.
We don’t yet know how many deaths the coronavirus will cause. But a recent study pegged the mortality rate for symptomatic coronavirus cases at 1.4 percent. That may not sound devastating in a vacuum, but it is significant, as that rate means the coronavirus could kill up to 1.1 million Americans if allowed to spread unchecked.
This is why it is important to socially distance. We do not yet have a coronavirus vaccine, meaning the best tool we have to slow the spread of the virus and minimize deaths is to practice social distancing until testing is so common that we know how far the virus has spread.
But Trump’s argument during the Fox News town hall (and elsewhere) was to insist that Americans have already learned the necessary lessons of social distancing and will be careful about practicing it at work. But there’s really no way for a restaurant server to stay at least 6 feet away from customers, nor is it feasible, for example, for people to practice distancing in crowded buses or factories.
Trump, however, doesn’t seem to understand the point of social distancing. During an interview with Fox News that aired after the town hall, he revealed this by telling Hemmer that he hopes to see churches packed on Easter.
Trump on why he picked Easter as the day he wants to end strict social distancing and reopen American businesses: "Easter is a very special day for me ... Easter Sunday, and you'll have packed churches all over our country." pic.twitter.com/6cXEtW8LmR — Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) March 24, 2020
Experts say the most direct path to normalcy is not to just hope people manage not to infect each other, but to establish a rigorous testing regime, one that would allow us to understand where it might be safe to relax social distancing and which states and cities might require more restrictive quarantines. But the Trump administration’s coronavirus response continues to be plagued by testing failures that hamper all of our abilities to develop a reliable picture of how far the virus has spread. Asked about those failures during the town hall, Trump changed the topic before ultimately absolving himself of responsibility.
“Nobody ever expected a thing like this,” said Trump, who worked to dismantle America’s pandemic preparedness during his first three years in office. “Nobody would say that million and millions of people [would need to be] tested.”
Asked about problems with coronavirus testing, Trump oddly pivots to bashing the Ukraine "witch hunt" before absolving himself of all responsibility pic.twitter.com/76qnbQ5Bqz — Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) March 24, 2020
Fox News takes the “Dear Leader” stuff up a notch
Fox News normally covers Trump in a fawning manner, but Tuesday’s virtual town hall took things up a notch. At various points, White House coronavirus task force member Dr. Deborah Birx, Surgeon General Jerome Adams, and Fox News contributors Dr. Marc Siegel and Dr. Nicole Saphier went out of their way to praise the president:
"President Trump, I do believe that as a nation we are beholden to you for your decisive, swift action in the beginning with the travel ban," Fox News contributor Dr. Nicole Saphier tells Trump.
"Thank you," Trump replies. pic.twitter.com/GFClRlXKuE — Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) March 24, 2020
Others parts of the broadcast bordered on irresponsible. Before Trump joined the broadcast, reality TV star Dr. Mehmet Oz asked Vice President Mike Pence a leading question about an unproven drug cocktail that Trump and a number of his Fox News supporters have promoted as a possible coronavirus treatment.
Fox News's coronavirus virtual town hall now features Dr. Oz asking Pence leading question means to promote unproven, potentially dangerous drugs pic.twitter.com/4c466rFpGS — Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) March 24, 2020
The town hall gave the impression of a dangerously misinformed president being propped up by sycophants who are unwilling or unable to ask him tough questions. That danger will soon become even more palpable if Trump follows through with recommending that people go back to work and pack into churches — and, as a result, fan the flames of the still-spreading virus.
The news moves fast. To stay updated, follow Aaron Rupar on Twitter, and read more of Vox’s policy and politics coverage.


vox--2020-03-24--Most Americans say they really are social distancing

Americans really are practicing social distancing — staying home and avoiding gatherings , from big public events to meetings with family and friends — in response to the coronavirus pandemic , according to new data from Gallup .
Based on polling conducted March 20 to 22 , 72 percent of US adults say they are avoiding “ public spaces , such as stores or restaurants.
” That ’ s more than double the rate from one week prior , when 30 percent of Americans said they were avoiding such spaces , Gallup found .
The great majority of Americans also @ @ @ @ @ @ @ large crowds , public transportation , and even small gatherings with family or friends .
Here are Gallup ’ s full findings , broken down week by week : “ These shifts are notable because they suggest that the unprecedented efforts by federal , state , local , and private-sector leaders to get the public ’ s attention — a combination of formal closures of transportation , schools , and workplaces , as well as public appeals for voluntary efforts — are working , ” Lydia Saad wrote for Gallup .
There doesn @ @ @ @ @ @ @ difference in how age groups are handling the coronavirus pandemic , despite the concerns of some public health officials and experts that young people aren ’ t doing enough .
About 72 percent of people ages 18 to 29 said they ’ re avoiding small gatherings , compared with 69 percent of people ages 30 to 59 and 67 percent of people ages 60 and older .
Women are doing a better job than men , though , with 73 percent of women avoiding small gatherings compared with 64 percent of men .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ : About 78 percent of Democrats told Gallup they ’ re avoiding small gatherings , while just 56 percent of Republicans said the same .
Overall , 4 percent of respondents said that they “ did not make any attempt to isolate [ themselves ] from people outside [ their ] household ” from March 20 to 22 , compared with 11 percent in the prior report , which was based on interviews from March 16 to 19 .
Nearly two-thirds of Americans said they ’ re mostly or completely isolating themselves , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ no contact ” outside their households .
The majority of Americans — 58 percent — also said that they ’ re “ very likely ” to comply with public health officials ’ recommendations to stay home for a month in response to a serious coronavirus outbreak , up from 41 percent a week before .
The findings are based on polling conducted over the internet with the Gallup Panel , which looks at Americans 18 and over and tracks their shifting attitudes on an array of issues more regularly than other surveys .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ are increasingly taking social distancing seriously .
The question now is whether the trend will continue as some government officials , including President Donald Trump , begin to walk back social distancing guidances against the advice of experts .

Americans really are practicing social distancing — staying home and avoiding gatherings, from big public events to meetings with family and friends — in response to the coronavirus pandemic, according to new data from Gallup.
Based on polling conducted March 20 to 22, 72 percent of US adults say they are avoiding “public spaces, such as stores or restaurants.” That’s more than double the rate from one week prior, when 30 percent of Americans said they were avoiding such spaces, Gallup found.
The great majority of Americans also said they’re avoiding events with large crowds, public transportation, and even small gatherings with family or friends. Here are Gallup’s full findings, broken down week by week:
“These shifts are notable because they suggest that the unprecedented efforts by federal, state, local, and private-sector leaders to get the public’s attention — a combination of formal closures of transportation, schools, and workplaces, as well as public appeals for voluntary efforts — are working,” Lydia Saad wrote for Gallup.
There doesn’t seem to be a big difference in how age groups are handling the coronavirus pandemic, despite the concerns of some public health officials and experts that young people aren’t doing enough. About 72 percent of people ages 18 to 29 said they’re avoiding small gatherings, compared with 69 percent of people ages 30 to 59 and 67 percent of people ages 60 and older.
Women are doing a better job than men, though, with 73 percent of women avoiding small gatherings compared with 64 percent of men.
There’s also a partisan divide: About 78 percent of Democrats told Gallup they’re avoiding small gatherings, while just 56 percent of Republicans said the same.
Overall, 4 percent of respondents said that they “did not make any attempt to isolate [themselves] from people outside [their] household” from March 20 to 22, compared with 11 percent in the prior report, which was based on interviews from March 16 to 19. Nearly two-thirds of Americans said they’re mostly or completely isolating themselves, with “very little” to “no contact” outside their households.
The majority of Americans — 58 percent — also said that they’re “very likely” to comply with public health officials’ recommendations to stay home for a month in response to a serious coronavirus outbreak, up from 41 percent a week before.
The findings are based on polling conducted over the internet with the Gallup Panel, which looks at Americans 18 and over and tracks their shifting attitudes on an array of issues more regularly than other surveys.
Overall, the findings suggest that Americans are increasingly taking social distancing seriously. The question now is whether the trend will continue as some government officials, including President Donald Trump, begin to walk back social distancing guidances against the advice of experts.


vox--2020-03-24--Trump’s approval rating is rising slightly amid the coronavirus pandemic

Amid a dramatic public health and economic crisis over the coronavirus pandemic , President Donald Trump ’ s approval rating is rising — though he ’ s still lagging far behind state and local officials in the US .
According to two new polls — one from Monmouth University and one from CBS/YouGov — the president received better marks than most institutions and officials ; only health care providers , public health experts , and state and local officials were better rated .
Monmouth ’ s polling found 50 percent of US adults believe Trump is doing a “ good @ @ @ @ @ @ @ with 45 percent saying he ’ s done a “ bad job.
” The poll has a 3.4 percentage point margin of error , one large enough that most Americans could actually disapprove of the president ’ s performance .
YouGov ’ s pollsters found 53 percent of US adults approved of the president ’ s response , with a 2.3 percentage point margin of error — again , a margin that muddles whether the majority of the US approves of his work .
The Trump administration ’ s response has , overall @ @ @ @ @ @ @ criticized for acting too slowly once it learned of the threat the virus posed , for eliminating public health positions meant to guard against pandemics , and Trump himself has been censured for spreading misinformation .
As Vox ’ s German Lopez noted , Trump has given the public incorrect statements on a number of important things , including , “ whether the outbreak will get worse , how long a vaccine will take to make , whether testing is widely available , and how long social distancing guidelines will remain in effect @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the work of state and local officials — from mayors to governors — has been more widely approved of , something reflected in the polling .
In Monmouth ’ s work , 72 percent of respondents said their governors are doing a good job ; 68 percent said state and local officials got their response right in YouGov ’ s survey .
These numbers would suggest more bipartisan support for these leaders than Trump enjoys .
For instance — according to YouGov ’ s data — 91 percent of Republicans see the president @ @ @ @ @ @ @ while 54 percent of independents and only 22 percent of Democrats feel the same .
Nationally , Republicans and Democrats only agreed on medical professionals being trustworthy sources of information .
Ninety percent of Republicans said they trusted public health officials , while 92 percent of Democrats said the same .
Trump , on the other hand , was a trusted source only for Republicans — 90 percent believe he is delivering accurate information , while 86 percent of Democrats said he can ’ t be trusted .
The president ’ s approval @ @ @ @ @ @ @ pandemic — Monmouth ’ s pollsters tracked a 2 percentage point increase compared to February 2020 and a 7 percentage point increase from March 2019 , when Trump ’ s campaign was under investigation by special counsel Robert Mueller over its ties to Russia .
Trump ’ s polling increase from last month is within the poll ’ s margin of error , and , as Monmouth University Polling Institute director Patrick Murray has noted , does not reflect the stark polling boosts presidents usually see amid crises , like President George W. @ @ @ @ @ @ @ rating boost as he worked to respond to 9/11 .
“ Trump has cast himself as a wartime president , but the small increase in his current job rating falls far short of the ‘ rally round the flag ’ effect past presidents have experienced , ” Murray said in a statement .
Americans are very worried about the coronavirus Part of this seems to be due to the stark partisan divide in views on the president that have limited his approval ratings throughout his presidency .
But the polling suggests Trump has @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and independents in the way Bush was able to , not just because they did not like him before but because they don ’ t trust him now — and because many appear to take a dim view of where the US is heading .
For instance , 54 percent of Monmouth ’ s respondents said the country is on the wrong track , a sentiment 57 percent of YouGov ’ s respondents agreed with .
And , as far as the coronavirus is concerned , those polled did not seem to be @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Monmouth found only 12 percent were not concerned the virus would infect them or someone in their families , and only 25 percent were confident the US would be able to limit Covid-19 cases in the next few weeks .
More Republicans were confident about limiting the coronavirus than Democrats , but still , most Republicans ( 56 percent ) weren ’ t confident it would be limited .
And the university ’ s pollsters also found Americans of all political leanings unsure about the public ’ s ability to handle the crisis @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 38 percent of respondents said the American public is doing a good job dealing with the virus , with 39 percent of Republicans , 50 percent of independents , and 45 percent of Democrats saying their fellow Americans are doing a bad job .
All of this underscores why it is necessary for the Trump administration to take the sorts of action that will raise the president ’ s approval ratings and lower the percentage of Americans who do not trust him .
Not so that he can have better numbers — something @ @ @ @ @ @ @ have , even if he must inflate them himself — but because his constituents are worried and rightly so .
The US needs a figure at the national level who will dispense accurate information and who demonstrates an ability to take decisive , evidence-based action to limit the damage the pandemic will do .
Trump has not yet shown an ability to do so , even using his Fox News town hall Tuesday to again make unhelpful comparisons between the coronavirus and the flu .
He also suggested — against expert advice — @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to try to help the economy , and spent some time attacking Democrats and windmills .
Until Trump can be a reliable source of science-based information , Americans will continue to look to their local officials , rather than to their president , for reassurance .

Amid a dramatic public health and economic crisis over the coronavirus pandemic, President Donald Trump’s approval rating is rising — though he’s still lagging far behind state and local officials in the US.
According to two new polls — one from Monmouth University and one from CBS/YouGov — the president received better marks than most institutions and officials; only health care providers, public health experts, and state and local officials were better rated.
Monmouth’s polling found 50 percent of US adults believe Trump is doing a “good job” responding to the coronavirus, with 45 percent saying he’s done a “bad job.” The poll has a 3.4 percentage point margin of error, one large enough that most Americans could actually disapprove of the president’s performance. YouGov’s pollsters found 53 percent of US adults approved of the president’s response, with a 2.3 percentage point margin of error — again, a margin that muddles whether the majority of the US approves of his work.
The Trump administration’s response has, overall, been controversial. It has been criticized for acting too slowly once it learned of the threat the virus posed, for eliminating public health positions meant to guard against pandemics, and Trump himself has been censured for spreading misinformation. As Vox’s German Lopez noted, Trump has given the public incorrect statements on a number of important things, including, “whether the outbreak will get worse, how long a vaccine will take to make, whether testing is widely available, and how long social distancing guidelines will remain in effect, among other examples.”
Meanwhile, the work of state and local officials — from mayors to governors — has been more widely approved of, something reflected in the polling. In Monmouth’s work, 72 percent of respondents said their governors are doing a good job; 68 percent said state and local officials got their response right in YouGov’s survey.
These numbers would suggest more bipartisan support for these leaders than Trump enjoys. For instance — according to YouGov’s data — 91 percent of Republicans see the president as handling the coronavirus crisis well, while 54 percent of independents and only 22 percent of Democrats feel the same.
Nationally, Republicans and Democrats only agreed on medical professionals being trustworthy sources of information. Ninety percent of Republicans said they trusted public health officials, while 92 percent of Democrats said the same. Trump, on the other hand, was a trusted source only for Republicans — 90 percent believe he is delivering accurate information, while 86 percent of Democrats said he can’t be trusted.
The president’s approval rating has gone up slightly amid the pandemic — Monmouth’s pollsters tracked a 2 percentage point increase compared to February 2020 and a 7 percentage point increase from March 2019, when Trump’s campaign was under investigation by special counsel Robert Mueller over its ties to Russia.
Trump’s polling increase from last month is within the poll’s margin of error, and, as Monmouth University Polling Institute director Patrick Murray has noted, does not reflect the stark polling boosts presidents usually see amid crises, like President George W. Bush’s 30 percentage point approval rating boost as he worked to respond to 9/11.
“Trump has cast himself as a wartime president, but the small increase in his current job rating falls far short of the ‘rally round the flag’ effect past presidents have experienced,” Murray said in a statement.
Americans are very worried about the coronavirus
Part of this seems to be due to the stark partisan divide in views on the president that have limited his approval ratings throughout his presidency. But the polling suggests Trump has not been able to win over Democrats and independents in the way Bush was able to, not just because they did not like him before but because they don’t trust him now — and because many appear to take a dim view of where the US is heading.
For instance, 54 percent of Monmouth’s respondents said the country is on the wrong track, a sentiment 57 percent of YouGov’s respondents agreed with. And, as far as the coronavirus is concerned, those polled did not seem to be more optimistic about their individual lives.
Monmouth found only 12 percent were not concerned the virus would infect them or someone in their families, and only 25 percent were confident the US would be able to limit Covid-19 cases in the next few weeks. More Republicans were confident about limiting the coronavirus than Democrats, but still, most Republicans (56 percent) weren’t confident it would be limited. And the university’s pollsters also found Americans of all political leanings unsure about the public’s ability to handle the crisis created by the virus; overall, 38 percent of respondents said the American public is doing a good job dealing with the virus, with 39 percent of Republicans, 50 percent of independents, and 45 percent of Democrats saying their fellow Americans are doing a bad job.
All of this underscores why it is necessary for the Trump administration to take the sorts of action that will raise the president’s approval ratings and lower the percentage of Americans who do not trust him. Not so that he can have better numbers — something he has been clear he likes to have, even if he must inflate them himself — but because his constituents are worried and rightly so. The US needs a figure at the national level who will dispense accurate information and who demonstrates an ability to take decisive, evidence-based action to limit the damage the pandemic will do.
Trump has not yet shown an ability to do so, even using his Fox News town hall Tuesday to again make unhelpful comparisons between the coronavirus and the flu. He also suggested — against expert advice — that social distancing should be scaled back to try to help the economy, and spent some time attacking Democrats and windmills.
Until Trump can be a reliable source of science-based information, Americans will continue to look to their local officials, rather than to their president, for reassurance.


vox--2020-03-24--The pandemic is driving media consumption way up. But ad sales are falling apart.

The coronavirus pandemic has made Twitter more valuable than ever to its users .
But that spike in interest isn ’ t doing anything for Twitter ’ s ad business , which is in free fall — because of the pandemic .
You can expect to see that story unfolding throughout the media business in the months to come .
Here are the numbers : Twitter ’ s daily usage has jumped by 23 percent this year as people flock to the service , over and over , to keep track of what ’ s happening .
But the company @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 20 percent in March as advertisers cut back on spending or perhaps stopped spending altogether .
It ’ s always been obvious that the pandemic would hit media companies , because the pandemic is hitting every part of the economy .
And advertising dollars , the thing that sustains many media companies , are often cut first as companies contract in bad times .
On Monday , Twitter told investors it no longer believed in the projections it had provided to them in early February , leading Wall Street analysts to do some @ @ @ @ @ @ @ estimated 20 percent drop in revenue .
So Twitter ’ s sort-of announcement about its decline reads as an official warning to the rest of the industry about how quickly things have deteriorated .
It ’ s also a reminder that even though people are spending much more time with social media , news sites , and TV networks , those spikes in traffic and usage aren ’ t going to help if advertisers aren ’ t paying to reach those people Twitter is one of two big media ( or at least @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that the pandemic has already hurt their ad business .
The New York Times gave out its own warning earlier this month , noting that ad revenue was going to drop “ in the mid-teens ” in the first three months of this year , though its subscription business seemed okay .
But you will see many more .
“ The implication is that marketers are cutting spend across the board , ” RBC analyst Mark Mahaney wrote in a research report Monday night .
“ Want another datapoint ?
Type ‘ Las @ @ @ @ @ @ @ bar .
We ’ re seeing zero paid ads .
Can ’ t recall ever seeing that.
” Alphabet , Google ’ s parent company , never gives out projections to Wall Street , so it won ’ t have to walk it back like Twitter just did .
And while Facebook hasn ’ t issued a formal note to Wall Street , it has said its ad business is under pressure , too .
On a blog post published Tuesday afternoon , Facebook noted that many of its services — particularly its @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , but that it is under ad pressure , too : “ We don ’ t monetize many of the services where we ’ re seeing increased engagement , and we ’ ve seen a weakening in our ads business in countries taking aggressive actions to reduce the spread of COVID-19.
” It ’ s quite likely that both Alphabet and Facebook will see material drops in their ad businesses , in part because of the nature of the way their ad businesses are built .
It ’ s very easy to buy @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s very easy to stop buying them .
“ Given the sheer size of digital ad spending in today ’ s marketplace ( i.e.
, more than 50 % of all ad spend is now digital ) , we would expect other digital platforms to see significant deceleration in ad revenues in the coming months , ” MoffettNathanson analyst Michael Nathanson wrote in a report Tuesday morning .
On the other hand , Google and Facebook are likely to come out of the pandemic in much better shape than the rest of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ enormous size .
A smaller Facebook and Google are still very , very big .
Traditional media companies , which were already losing money to digital ad platforms — to Google and Facebook , that is — are in real trouble , though .
Local news outlets , which were already under enormous pressure , may not make it out at all .
And while big TV networks are more protected , in part because advertisers make commitments to buy from them many months in advance , they certainly aren ’ t shielded @ @ @ @ @ @ @ right now : As the pandemic drags on , we will see more reasons for advertisers not to spend money , like the now-officially suspended Tokyo Olympics , the up-in-the-air Democratic and Republican conventions , and the who-knows-what of the presidential campaigns themselves , which were expected to generate enormous ad buys over the summer and fall .
Update , March 24 , 4:31 pm : This post has been updated to include information posted to Facebook ’ s blog .

The coronavirus pandemic has made Twitter more valuable than ever to its users. But that spike in interest isn’t doing anything for Twitter’s ad business, which is in free fall — because of the pandemic.
You can expect to see that story unfolding throughout the media business in the months to come.
Here are the numbers: Twitter’s daily usage has jumped by 23 percent this year as people flock to the service, over and over, to keep track of what’s happening. But the company’s revenue may have dropped by 20 percent in March as advertisers cut back on spending or perhaps stopped spending altogether.
It’s always been obvious that the pandemic would hit media companies, because the pandemic is hitting every part of the economy. And advertising dollars, the thing that sustains many media companies, are often cut first as companies contract in bad times.
On Monday, Twitter told investors it no longer believed in the projections it had provided to them in early February, leading Wall Street analysts to do some back-of-the-envelope math and come up with that estimated 20 percent drop in revenue. So Twitter’s sort-of announcement about its decline reads as an official warning to the rest of the industry about how quickly things have deteriorated.
It’s also a reminder that even though people are spending much more time with social media, news sites, and TV networks, those spikes in traffic and usage aren’t going to help if advertisers aren’t paying to reach those people
Twitter is one of two big media (or at least media-ish) companies to tell Wall Street that the pandemic has already hurt their ad business. The New York Times gave out its own warning earlier this month, noting that ad revenue was going to drop “in the mid-teens” in the first three months of this year, though its subscription business seemed okay.
But you will see many more.
“The implication is that marketers are cutting spend across the board,” RBC analyst Mark Mahaney wrote in a research report Monday night. “Want another datapoint? Type ‘Las Vegas Hotels’ in your Google search bar. We’re seeing zero paid ads. Can’t recall ever seeing that.”
Alphabet, Google’s parent company, never gives out projections to Wall Street, so it won’t have to walk it back like Twitter just did. And while Facebook hasn’t issued a formal note to Wall Street, it has said its ad business is under pressure, too.
On a blog post published Tuesday afternoon, Facebook noted that many of its services — particularly its messaging services — are seeing increased engagement, but that it is under ad pressure, too: “We don’t monetize many of the services where we’re seeing increased engagement, and we’ve seen a weakening in our ads business in countries taking aggressive actions to reduce the spread of COVID-19.”
It’s quite likely that both Alphabet and Facebook will see material drops in their ad businesses, in part because of the nature of the way their ad businesses are built. It’s very easy to buy Google and Facebook ads, and it’s very easy to stop buying them.
“Given the sheer size of digital ad spending in today’s marketplace (i.e., more than 50% of all ad spend is now digital), we would expect other digital platforms to see significant deceleration in ad revenues in the coming months,” MoffettNathanson analyst Michael Nathanson wrote in a report Tuesday morning.
On the other hand, Google and Facebook are likely to come out of the pandemic in much better shape than the rest of the media business, due to their enormous size. A smaller Facebook and Google are still very, very big.
Traditional media companies, which were already losing money to digital ad platforms — to Google and Facebook, that is — are in real trouble, though. Local news outlets, which were already under enormous pressure, may not make it out at all. And while big TV networks are more protected, in part because advertisers make commitments to buy from them many months in advance, they certainly aren’t shielded.
And that’s just for right now: As the pandemic drags on, we will see more reasons for advertisers not to spend money, like the now-officially suspended Tokyo Olympics, the up-in-the-air Democratic and Republican conventions, and the who-knows-what of the presidential campaigns themselves, which were expected to generate enormous ad buys over the summer and fall.
Update, March 24, 4:31 pm: This post has been updated to include information posted to Facebook’s blog.


vox--2020-03-24--India’s coronavirus lockdown and its looming crisis, explained

At first glance , India seems like a coronavirus success story , with its relatively low number of cases compared with the rest of the world .
But a closer look reveals a grim reality : It ’ s likely only months away from a major health crisis .
According to the government ’ s official numbers , as of March 24 , the country has fewer than 500 total cases of Covid-19 , and only nine people have died from the disease .
For a country with a population of 1.3 billion people , the world ’ s second @ @ @ @ @ @ @ almost too good to be true .
Unfortunately , experts say the numbers almost certainly are too good to be true , and may be masking a much larger outbreak .
Perhaps recognizing this possibility , Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Tuesday announced a three-week lockdown for all of India .
“ To save India and every Indian , there will be a total ban on venturing out of your homes , ” he said in a national address .
Despite swift and early moves to restrict air travel , the central government @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and scarcity of testing .
Without the data from that testing , Indian health officials are being forced to make life-or-death decisions without reliable information about who does and who doesn ’ t carry Covid-19 .
“ We ’ ve been proactive , but blindfolded , ” Shamika Ravi , a health policy expert at the Brookings Institution in India , told me .
That would be a challenge for any country , but for India it ’ s particularly devastating .
Public health care in the country is poor .
Private health @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of the population is illiterate and thus may not be as aware of the danger .
And a massive citizenry makes social distancing nearly impossible — a big issue when around 100 million people in the country are over the age of 60 .
All of this has many extremely worried about what comes next .
“ If we follow the trajectory of Italy , for example , it would be a catastrophe , especially in the poorer states , which have next to zero capacity to cope with something like this , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on Indian politics at the Observer Research Foundation in New Delhi .
To curb a growth in infections , the central government had been working with the nation ’ s 36 states and territories to impose curfews and lockdowns .
But even then people didn ’ t take it too seriously , wandered outside , and didn ’ t follow general health and safety guidelines , experts say .
The lack of information and societal order has medical professionals fearing the worst .
“ We expect 55 percent of the Indian people will @ @ @ @ @ @ @ million cases over the next four months , ” Dr. SP Kalantri , the medical superintendent of the Kasturba Hospital in central India , told me before Modi announced the lockdown .
“ If the current disease trajectory is anything to go by , we expect 1 million or 2 million deaths in India over a one-year period.
” “ In Maharashtra , a state where I live , 60 million of 120 million are likely to get infected in a year , ” he continued .
So although India may not be @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the warning lights are clearly blinking red .
India acted fast but then dropped the ball on testing No one I spoke with said India had failed to take the threat seriously .
In fact , the government took pretty aggressive measures early on .
The first confirmed case in India was reported on January 30 .
A university student studying in Wuhan , China , had traveled back home to Kerala , a state on India ’ s southern tip , during vacation .
Over the next four days , two more @ @ @ @ @ @ @ disease .
That launched the central government into action .
Michael Kugelman , an India expert at the Wilson Center think tank in Washington , told me he noticed the country was already airlifting Indian nationals out of Wuhan during his trip to New Delhi in early February .
“ Clearly the efforts to restrict travel from China were happening way back then , even though flights weren ’ t formally banned until a bit later , ” Kugelman said .
That would come on March 19 , a final step after the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ week earlier .
But throughout that period , government officials were only testing people who had traveled internationally or had come into contact with someone who tested positive .
Because of that focus , India had one of the lowest testing rates in the world as of March 13 , as the chart below shows .
( Note that the United States wasn ’ t much further ahead . )
What ’ s worse , those early efforts proved problematic on their own .
Jayaprakash Muliyil , one of India ’ s most @ @ @ @ @ @ @ site Scroll on Monday that those initial tests were “ weak.
” They didn ’ t specifically test for Covid-19 , he said , but just any strain of coronavirus , including SARS and MERS .
“ It would lead to many unnecessary positives and unnecessarily people being quarantined , ” Muliyil continued .
“ But now we have excellent test kits with sensitivity and specificity almost next to 100 percent , ” he said , adding that he expected India “ will start testing , testing , testing ” soon .
More @ @ @ @ @ @ @ but experts tell me there are two big problems with that optimism .
First , only the central government is currently authorized to conduct tests .
That means the state leaders can ’ t take advantage of their networks to test their own people , assuming supplies were available .
Second , the policy for testing hasn ’ t changed : It ’ s still only for travelers or those who ’ ve been in contact with infected people .
That leaves out hundreds of millions who may be carrying the disease but @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a change to either stance , it ’ s likely India won ’ t get a firm grasp on the extent of the outbreak .
“ The testing protocol has to become more aggressive , ” Brookings ’ s Ravi told me .
“ We are testing too few.
” But even if India had been testing perfectly from the start , it would still struggle to implement other critical measures needed to control the outbreak — namely , lockdowns .
Andy , who lives in the eastern state of West Bengal and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ security reasons , is worried about how his neighbors are dealing with the crisis .
During a recent trip to the grocery store in Kolkata , he found that many weren ’ t covering their mouths or using masks .
Some , even , were spitting in public .
“ They should be more cautious and have more knowledge about what and what not to do , ” he told me after answering a Vox call out for experiences around the world with coronavirus .
The lack of public adherence to health and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a week-long lockdown on Monday .
Other than getting food , medicine , or other necessary items , Andy and his parents must stay in their shared home .
“ It ’ s pretty fine — for now , ” Andy said , chuckling .
Hundreds of millions of Indians are in similar circumstances .
Because India is so large , states have lots of power to govern themselves , though they coordinate their efforts with the central government .
Government officials in states with larger outbreaks and more cosmopolitan populations have taken @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , Maharashtra state , which has the nation ’ s financial hub of Mumbai as its capital , shut down nonessential businesses and trains until the end of March .
Those undergoing quarantine in the state must be stamped on their left hand .
Sahiti Chedalavada , a 27-year-old IT specialist who lives in the city , says that even services for the well-off are struggling .
“ Bigbasket , the grocery delivery service I and many of my neighbors use , has been out of delivery slots for three days , ” @ @ @ @ @ @ @ shifted to essentials-only delivery , but it ’ s still backed up.
” “ Every delivery service is like this or worse , ” Chedalavada said , while noting that she ’ s stocked up on products for weeks and has the luxury of working from home .
What ’ s universal , though , is that citizens everywhere continue to go outside in defiance of their local lockdowns .
Part of that may have to do with the country ’ s high illiteracy rate and poverty levels .
“ The population is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , and therefore they have been taking it lightly until now , ” says the Observer Research Foundation ’ s Joshi .
“ People only have a vague idea of what the virus is all about.
” The other part is that some people just don ’ t want to be cooped up inside — and it ’ s hard to enforce such a policy for millions of people , especially when some curfews and lockdowns were more robustly enforced than others .
That ’ s surely why Prime Minister Modi took the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on all 1.3 billion Indians for three weeks .
“ If we don ’ t handle these 21 days well , then our country , your family , will go backward by 21 years , ” he said during Tuesday ’ s national address , adding that the government will provide support for medical equipment like masks and ventilators .
“ You can ’ t overestimate the significance and the profound challenges of shutting down a nation of more than a billion people , ” the Wilson Center ’ s Kugelman said .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ risks , especially in a country already experiencing one of its most serious slowdowns in years , of locking down for such a long period — and yet he opted to swallow that risk and go all in.
” “ Modi is well known for making bold decisions , ” he continued , “ and this is his boldest by far.
” But it ’ s another bold decision Modi made half a year ago that has many people even more worried .
The coronavirus will hit hard in Kashmir Last August , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ move to usurp power from the nation ’ s only Muslim-majority state : the near-autonomous Jammu and Kashmir ( J & K ) .
Immediately , the central government put the area under brutal military lockdown to quash any dissent there .
Now , at a time when people especially need to trust their government in order to weather the coronavirus crisis , those in J & K clearly — and rightfully — don ’ t .
“ It is a very tense and repressive environment that makes many Kashmiris mistrust the authorities @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the Wilson Center ’ s Kugelman told me .
“ The volatile dynamics in Kashmir introduce a unique level of complexity into Indian efforts to curb the spread of coronavirus there.
” J & K ’ s first case of coronavirus was reported last Thursday , and the nearby territory of Ladakh — which was once part of J & K until the government ’ s takeover last year — has 13 cases after a group traveled to Iran .
That ’ s increasing fears that there will be a larger outbreak in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a very long border with China .
A major part of the problem is that J & K ’ s 8 million people have no reliable access to the internet , which has alternated between being dramatically slowed down or shut off completely by Indian authorities .
Even if locals wanted to get vital information about the disease from trusted sources , work from home , or continue their education online , they couldn ’ t .
“ I can ’ t open even basic websites that provide information and advice about the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ freelance writer in Srinagar , J & K ’ s largest city , told BuzzFeed News last week .
Mir Moien , a medical student from J & K , also shared his frustrations with BuzzFeed .
After conducting a Google search for coronavirus information , he realized any links he clicked on wouldn ’ t download .
Even information coming over WhatsApp , the texting platform widely used by Indians , doesn ’ t load .
“ It ’ s a catastrophe , ” Moien said .
Communications remain so slow and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for physicians who treat patients .
The health care system in the region is already poor , but the restrictions on the internet are making it even harder to provide adequate care .
Iqbal Saleem , a surgery professor at Government Medical College in Srinagar , tweeted last week about his troubles simply downloading a manual for doctors on how to treat Covid-19 .
Kugelman noted another deeply concerning possibility : “ There ’ s also reason to fear , given how Kashmir is marginalized , that officials in New Delhi won ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ underserved medical facilities and supplies there as it will to bring similar reinforcements to other areas of the country , ” Kugelman said .
“ Old habits die hard.
” Between the lockdown and current tensions , few have any real hope .
“ If it [ coronavirus pandemic ] happens here , we will be devastated , ” an unnamed veteran doctor from the area told Al Jazeera on Monday .
“ We will die like cattle.
” As mentioned above , states control their own public health care systems in India @ @ @ @ @ @ @ me that the biggest states tend to have the worst ones .
That could pose major problems for millions of patients who may need to seek care should they be infected with the coronavirus .
Ravi also noted that 75 percent of health care in India is provided at private hospitals , which experts say generally are better-run and better-equipped .
While that may be good news for those who can afford such treatment , that kind of support will be out of reach for the millions of poor in the country .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ prospective patients who believe they might have the disease .
As the Caravan magazine reports , in India , “ government hospitals are ill-equipped , and the private hospitals are not accountable to anyone.
” This is why Indian officials are sounding the alarm .
“ If we reach stage 3 of the pandemic ” — meaning community transmission — “ India ’ s healthcare system will collapse , ” an unnamed Ministry of Health official told the Sunday Guardian last week .
The problem , though , is that India is probably @ @ @ @ @ @ @ started , ” Muliyil , the epidemiologist , told Scroll on Monday .
“ We know this from the fact there have emerged a few cases without any contact or travel history.
” This is what has Kalantri , the doctor in central India , extremely worried .
His nearly 1,000-bed teaching hospital is already making tons of adjustments to get ready for an influx of patients .
“ We created an isolation ward and an [ intensive care unit ] for patients suspected to have or confirmed with a Covid-19 infection , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ : “ The outbreak would surely test our capacity , ” he added .
Modi ’ s lockdown may put a brief pause on the coronavirus crisis in his country , then , but the situation is likely to get worse before it gets better .

At first glance, India seems like a coronavirus success story, with its relatively low number of cases compared with the rest of the world. But a closer look reveals a grim reality: It’s likely only months away from a major health crisis.
According to the government’s official numbers, as of March 24, the country has fewer than 500 total cases of Covid-19, and only nine people have died from the disease. For a country with a population of 1.3 billion people, the world’s second largest behind China, those figures seem almost too good to be true.
Unfortunately, experts say the numbers almost certainly are too good to be true, and may be masking a much larger outbreak.
Perhaps recognizing this possibility, Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Tuesday announced a three-week lockdown for all of India. “To save India and every Indian, there will be a total ban on venturing out of your homes,” he said in a national address.
Despite swift and early moves to restrict air travel, the central government’s main problem is the quality and scarcity of testing. Without the data from that testing, Indian health officials are being forced to make life-or-death decisions without reliable information about who does and who doesn’t carry Covid-19.
“We’ve been proactive, but blindfolded,” Shamika Ravi, a health policy expert at the Brookings Institution in India, told me.
That would be a challenge for any country, but for India it’s particularly devastating. Public health care in the country is poor. Private health care is expensive. About a quarter of the population is illiterate and thus may not be as aware of the danger. And a massive citizenry makes social distancing nearly impossible — a big issue when around 100 million people in the country are over the age of 60.
All of this has many extremely worried about what comes next. “If we follow the trajectory of Italy, for example, it would be a catastrophe, especially in the poorer states, which have next to zero capacity to cope with something like this,” said Manoj Joshi, an expert on Indian politics at the Observer Research Foundation in New Delhi.
To curb a growth in infections, the central government had been working with the nation’s 36 states and territories to impose curfews and lockdowns. But even then people didn’t take it too seriously, wandered outside, and didn’t follow general health and safety guidelines, experts say.
The lack of information and societal order has medical professionals fearing the worst.
“We expect 55 percent of the Indian people will get Covid-19 infection: 300 to 500 million cases over the next four months,” Dr. SP Kalantri, the medical superintendent of the Kasturba Hospital in central India, told me before Modi announced the lockdown. “If the current disease trajectory is anything to go by, we expect 1 million or 2 million deaths in India over a one-year period.”
“In Maharashtra, a state where I live, 60 million of 120 million are likely to get infected in a year,” he continued.
So although India may not be showing official signs of trouble now, the warning lights are clearly blinking red.
India acted fast but then dropped the ball on testing
No one I spoke with said India had failed to take the threat seriously. In fact, the government took pretty aggressive measures early on.
The first confirmed case in India was reported on January 30. A university student studying in Wuhan, China, had traveled back home to Kerala, a state on India’s southern tip, during vacation. Over the next four days, two more people in Kerala tested positive for the disease.
Related WHO says a third of the newest coronavirus cases worldwide are in the US
That launched the central government into action. Michael Kugelman, an India expert at the Wilson Center think tank in Washington, told me he noticed the country was already airlifting Indian nationals out of Wuhan during his trip to New Delhi in early February.
“Clearly the efforts to restrict travel from China were happening way back then, even though flights weren’t formally banned until a bit later,” Kugelman said. That would come on March 19, a final step after the country had already suspended tourist visas a week earlier.
But throughout that period, government officials were only testing people who had traveled internationally or had come into contact with someone who tested positive. Because of that focus, India had one of the lowest testing rates in the world as of March 13, as the chart below shows. (Note that the United States wasn’t much further ahead.)
What’s worse, those early efforts proved problematic on their own.
Jayaprakash Muliyil, one of India’s most renowned epidemiologists, told the Indian news site Scroll on Monday that those initial tests were “weak.” They didn’t specifically test for Covid-19, he said, but just any strain of coronavirus, including SARS and MERS.
“It would lead to many unnecessary positives and unnecessarily people being quarantined,” Muliyil continued. “But now we have excellent test kits with sensitivity and specificity almost next to 100 percent,” he said, adding that he expected India “will start testing, testing, testing” soon.
More testing is generally a good thing, but experts tell me there are two big problems with that optimism.
First, only the central government is currently authorized to conduct tests. That means the state leaders can’t take advantage of their networks to test their own people, assuming supplies were available.
Second, the policy for testing has barely changed. While the central government still takes the lead on tests — claiming it can do 60,000 of them in a week — private labs can now administer the tests, too. The problem is private testing is not a wide-scale operation yet.
Without a change to either stance, it’s likely India won’t get a firm grasp on the extent of the outbreak. “The testing protocol has to become more aggressive,” Brookings’s Ravi told me. “We are testing too few.”
But even if India had been testing perfectly from the start, it would still struggle to implement other critical measures needed to control the outbreak — namely, lockdowns.
Many Indians are openly disregarding local lockdown orders
Andy, who lives in the eastern state of West Bengal and requested Vox withhold his last name for security reasons, is worried about how his neighbors are dealing with the crisis.
During a recent trip to the grocery store in Kolkata, he found that many weren’t covering their mouths or using masks. Some, even, were spitting in public. “They should be more cautious and have more knowledge about what and what not to do,” he told me after answering a Vox call out for experiences around the world with coronavirus.
The lack of public adherence to health and safety requests led his state to impose a week-long lockdown on Monday. Other than getting food, medicine, or other necessary items, Andy and his parents must stay in their shared home. “It’s pretty fine — for now,” Andy said, chuckling.
Hundreds of millions of Indians are in similar circumstances.
Because India is so large, states have lots of power to govern themselves, though they coordinate their efforts with the central government. Government officials in states with larger outbreaks and more cosmopolitan populations have taken the most drastic measures.
For example, Maharashtra state, which has the nation’s financial hub of Mumbai as its capital, shut down nonessential businesses and trains until the end of March. Those undergoing quarantine in the state must be stamped on their left hand.
Sahiti Chedalavada, a 27-year-old IT specialist who lives in the city, says that even services for the well-off are struggling. “Bigbasket, the grocery delivery service I and many of my neighbors use, has been out of delivery slots for three days,” she told me. “Amazon has shifted to essentials-only delivery, but it’s still backed up.”
“Every delivery service is like this or worse,” Chedalavada said, while noting that she’s stocked up on products for weeks and has the luxury of working from home.
What’s universal, though, is that citizens everywhere continue to go outside in defiance of their local lockdowns.
Part of that may have to do with the country’s high illiteracy rate and poverty levels. “The population is illiterate and even its elite is uneducated, and therefore they have been taking it lightly until now,” says the Observer Research Foundation’s Joshi. “People only have a vague idea of what the virus is all about.”
The other part is that some people just don’t want to be cooped up inside — and it’s hard to enforce such a policy for millions of people, especially when some curfews and lockdowns were more robustly enforced than others.
That’s surely why Prime Minister Modi took the major step to impose a nationwide lockdown on all 1.3 billion Indians for three weeks.
“If we don’t handle these 21 days well, then our country, your family, will go backward by 21 years,” he said during Tuesday’s national address, adding that the government will provide support for medical equipment like masks and ventilators.
For experts, it’s a simply stunning decision.
“You can’t overestimate the significance and the profound challenges of shutting down a nation of more than a billion people,” the Wilson Center’s Kugelman said. “Modi surely understood the immense economic risks, especially in a country already experiencing one of its most serious slowdowns in years, of locking down for such a long period — and yet he opted to swallow that risk and go all in.”
“Modi is well known for making bold decisions,” he continued, “and this is his boldest by far.”
But it’s another bold decision Modi made half a year ago that has many people even more worried.
The coronavirus will hit hard in Kashmir
Last August, Modi’s government made a controversial move to usurp power from the nation’s only Muslim-majority state: the near-autonomous Jammu and Kashmir (J&K). Immediately, the central government put the area under brutal military lockdown to quash any dissent there.
Now, at a time when people especially need to trust their government in order to weather the coronavirus crisis, those in J&K clearly — and rightfully — don’t.
“It is a very tense and repressive environment that makes many Kashmiris mistrust the authorities and whatever actions they take,” the Wilson Center’s Kugelman told me. “The volatile dynamics in Kashmir introduce a unique level of complexity into Indian efforts to curb the spread of coronavirus there.”
J&K’s first case of coronavirus was reported last Thursday, and the nearby territory of Ladakh — which was once part of J&K until the government’s takeover last year — has 13 cases after a group traveled to Iran. That’s increasing fears that there will be a larger outbreak in the Kashmir area — which also shares a very long border with China.
A major part of the problem is that J&K’s 8 million people have no reliable access to the internet, which has alternated between being dramatically slowed down or shut off completely by Indian authorities. Even if locals wanted to get vital information about the disease from trusted sources, work from home, or continue their education online, they couldn’t.
“I can’t open even basic websites that provide information and advice about the pandemic,” Nayeem Rather, a freelance writer in Srinagar, J&K’s largest city, told BuzzFeed News last week.
Mir Moien, a medical student from J&K, also shared his frustrations with BuzzFeed. After conducting a Google search for coronavirus information, he realized any links he clicked on wouldn’t download. Even information coming over WhatsApp, the texting platform widely used by Indians, doesn’t load. “It’s a catastrophe,” Moien said.
Communications remain so slow and restricted that it’s especially troubling for physicians who treat patients. The health care system in the region is already poor, but the restrictions on the internet are making it even harder to provide adequate care.
Iqbal Saleem, a surgery professor at Government Medical College in Srinagar, tweeted last week about his troubles simply downloading a manual for doctors on how to treat Covid-19.
This is so frustrating.. Trying to download the guidelines for intensive care management as proposed by docs in England.. 24 Mbs and one hour.. Still not able to do so... @MirzaWaheed @naseerganai @islahmufti @Samaanlateef @DrKaloo — Iqbal Saleem (@DrIqbalSaleemM1) March 19, 2020
Kugelman noted another deeply concerning possibility: “There’s also reason to fear, given how Kashmir is marginalized, that officials in New Delhi won’t act as expeditiously to ramp up underserved medical facilities and supplies there as it will to bring similar reinforcements to other areas of the country,” Kugelman said. “Old habits die hard.”
Between the lockdown and current tensions, few have any real hope. “If it [coronavirus pandemic] happens here, we will be devastated,” an unnamed veteran doctor from the area told Al Jazeera on Monday. “We will die like cattle.”
India isn’t ready for a major health crisis
As mentioned above, states control their own public health care systems in India — and Brookings’s Ravi told me that the biggest states tend to have the worst ones. That could pose major problems for millions of patients who may need to seek care should they be infected with the coronavirus.
Ravi also noted that 75 percent of health care in India is provided at private hospitals, which experts say generally are better-run and better-equipped. While that may be good news for those who can afford such treatment, that kind of support will be out of reach for the millions of poor in the country. Private hospitals are already turning away some prospective patients who believe they might have the disease.
As the Caravan magazine reports, in India, “government hospitals are ill-equipped, and the private hospitals are not accountable to anyone.”
This is why Indian officials are sounding the alarm. “If we reach stage 3 of the pandemic” — meaning community transmission — “India’s healthcare system will collapse,” an unnamed Ministry of Health official told the Sunday Guardian last week.
The problem, though, is that India is probably already there. “Community transmission has started,” Muliyil, the epidemiologist, told Scroll on Monday. “We know this from the fact there have emerged a few cases without any contact or travel history.”
This is what has Kalantri, the doctor in central India, extremely worried. His nearly 1,000-bed teaching hospital is already making tons of adjustments to get ready for an influx of patients.
“We created an isolation ward and an [intensive care unit] for patients suspected to have or confirmed with a Covid-19 infection,” he told me. He continued:
We stopped teaching medical students and closed all our research activities. We asked colleagues from the departments of anatomy, physiology, biochemistry, pathology, pharmacology, and microbiology to lend us a helping hand in the current crisis. We stopped all surgeries, postponed our peripheral rural health care activities, limited the number of ward admissions, and changed the roles of health professionals in the hospital.
“The outbreak would surely test our capacity,” he added.
Modi’s lockdown may put a brief pause on the coronavirus crisis in his country, then, but the situation is likely to get worse before it gets better.