vox--2020-03-04--Live results for the Texas Democratic primary

Update : Decision Desk has projected Joe Biden as the winner of the Texas Democratic primary .
Texas is one of the most delegate-rich states voting on Super Tuesday — meaning that a decisive win for any candidate could give them a significant edge in securing the Democratic nomination .
Texas is second only to California in terms of the number of delegates at stake in a Super Tuesday contest : It will award 228 delegates , 149 of which are tied to the results in 31 individual state Senate precincts and the remaining 79 of which are awarded based @ @ @ @ @ @ @ at least 15 percent of the vote in a single district in order to be awarded those precinct-level delegates and at least 15 percent of the vote statewide for statewide delegates .
Going into Tuesday ’ s elections , it appeared to be a tight contest in Texas between Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders and former Vice President Joe Biden .
Sanders was expected to win in Texas until Monday , when Biden picked up endorsements from a slew of candidates who had dropped out of the Democratic primary .
As of March 3 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ polling data showed Sanders in a narrow lead over Biden .
Former New York City Mayor Mike Bloomberg and Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren will also likely win at least some delegates .
Polls close at 8 pm Eastern , 7 pm local time .
Vox has live results below , courtesy of our friends at Decision Desk .
Follow the rest of our live results here .
Primaries for congressional seats are also happening on Tuesday .
Some of them are in battleground districts where Democrats hope to pick up seats in the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ solidly red precincts where fealty to President Donald Trump is a major selling point among Republicans .
The race to choose which Democrat will challenge incumbent Republican Sen. John Cornyn has been chaotic .
MJ Hegar , once an Air Force helicopter pilot , has distinguished herself as the frontrunner , raising the most campaign funds and snagging the coveted endorsement of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee , the campaign arm of Senate Democrats .
She appeared to lead the field in a February University of Texas/Texas Tribune poll that showed her 13 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Cristina Tzintzún Ramirez , a progressive who has earned endorsements from Reps. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Joaquín Castro .
But the primary is far from over .
The field remains crowded with more than a dozen candidates .
Most analysts anticipate there will be a runoff election in May since many primary voters remain undecided .
The race will likely be closely watched nationwide , especially given the Democrats ’ previous attempt in 2018 to unseat a Republican senator in Texas : Former Texas Rep. Beto O ’ Rourke challenged the incumbent Ted Cruz @ @ @ @ @ @ @ about 2 percent .
Update : Decision Desk is projecting incumbent Rep. Kay Granger as the winner of the Republican primary .
Decision Desk is projecting that in the race for retiring Rep. Pete Olson ’ s seat , Troy Nehls and Kathaleen Wall will head to a runoff .
Decision Desk is projecting that Rep. Henry Cuellar will fend off his primary challenge to be the Democratic nominee .
Decision Desk is projecting that Genevieve Collins will face Rep. Colin Allred in November .
There are few competitive GOP primaries at the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , who represents Fort Worth and is the most senior Republican woman in the House , is facing a primary challenge from a former local City Council member , Chris Putnam , who is flush with campaign cash and has accused her of not being loyal to Trump .
She is the top Republican on the House Appropriations Committee , a coveted position usually reserved for members with a long career in Congress .
There is also a 15-way Republican primary for retiring Rep. Pete Olson ’ s seat representing Sugar Land — @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the general election .
Pierce Bush , the grandson of former President George H.W .
Bush , is one of the contenders .
Republicans are hoping to take back a seat in Dallas now occupied by US Rep. Colin Allred , a former NFL player and a Democrat who flipped the district blue after narrowly beating the incumbent Pete Sessions in 2018 .
He ’ s among 42 members of Congress who are in the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee ’ s program to protect incumbents facing tough reelection campaigns , and while many @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Democratic primary , Allred has been actively campaigning on behalf of Biden .
The top two Republican contenders in that race are Genevieve Collins , who is running on a pro-business platform and snagged the Dallas Morning News ’ s endorsement , and Floyd McLendon Jr. , a former Navy SEAL who is running on a border security platform .
Meanwhile , immigration attorney Jessica Cisneros is trying to unseat Rep. Henry Cuellar , a conservative Blue Dog Democrat who has backed Trump ’ s policies 69 percent of the time , endorsed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ advocated for gun rights , and opposed federal funding for abortions .
Cisneros once interned for Cuellar in Congress , but now she ’ s running against him with the support of the Justice Democrats — the same group that helped propel Ocasio-Cortez to victory in her 2018 primary campaign against the incumbent Democrat Joe Crowley , who had held his seat in Queens , New York , for two decades .
Cisneros ’ s candidacy has attracted national attention and endorsements from Sanders and Warren , as well as Ocasio-Cortez .
Cisneros @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and the Green New Deal , despite her rival ’ s claims that his district is fundamentally moderate .
And if you ’ re interested in other Texas House races , we have results from all the Democratic primaries below : And the GOP ones :

Update: Decision Desk has projected Joe Biden as the winner of the Texas Democratic primary.
Texas is one of the most delegate-rich states voting on Super Tuesday — meaning that a decisive win for any candidate could give them a significant edge in securing the Democratic nomination.
Texas is second only to California in terms of the number of delegates at stake in a Super Tuesday contest: It will award 228 delegates, 149 of which are tied to the results in 31 individual state Senate precincts and the remaining 79 of which are awarded based on statewide results. Candidates must capture at least 15 percent of the vote in a single district in order to be awarded those precinct-level delegates and at least 15 percent of the vote statewide for statewide delegates.
Going into Tuesday’s elections, it appeared to be a tight contest in Texas between Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders and former Vice President Joe Biden. Sanders was expected to win in Texas until Monday, when Biden picked up endorsements from a slew of candidates who had dropped out of the Democratic primary.
As of March 3, FiveThirtyEight’s average of national polling data showed Sanders in a narrow lead over Biden. Former New York City Mayor Mike Bloomberg and Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren will also likely win at least some delegates. Polls close at 8 pm Eastern, 7 pm local time. Vox has live results below, courtesy of our friends at Decision Desk. Follow the rest of our live results here.
Primaries for congressional seats are also happening on Tuesday. Some of them are in battleground districts where Democrats hope to pick up seats in the general election, but others are in solidly red precincts where fealty to President Donald Trump is a major selling point among Republicans.
The Democratic Senate primary
The race to choose which Democrat will challenge incumbent Republican Sen. John Cornyn has been chaotic.
MJ Hegar, once an Air Force helicopter pilot, has distinguished herself as the frontrunner, raising the most campaign funds and snagging the coveted endorsement of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, the campaign arm of Senate Democrats. She appeared to lead the field in a February University of Texas/Texas Tribune poll that showed her 13 points ahead of the next-best-performing candidate, Cristina Tzintzún Ramirez, a progressive who has earned endorsements from Reps. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Joaquín Castro.
But the primary is far from over. The field remains crowded with more than a dozen candidates. Most analysts anticipate there will be a runoff election in May since many primary voters remain undecided.
The race will likely be closely watched nationwide, especially given the Democrats’ previous attempt in 2018 to unseat a Republican senator in Texas: Former Texas Rep. Beto O’Rourke challenged the incumbent Ted Cruz, narrowly losing by a margin of about 2 percent.
Other down-ballot races to watch
Update: Decision Desk is projecting incumbent Rep. Kay Granger as the winner of the Republican primary.
Decision Desk is projecting that in the race for retiring Rep. Pete Olson’s seat, Troy Nehls and Kathaleen Wall will head to a runoff.
Decision Desk is projecting that Rep. Henry Cuellar will fend off his primary challenge to be the Democratic nominee.
Decision Desk is projecting that Genevieve Collins will face Rep. Colin Allred in November.
There are few competitive GOP primaries at the House level.
US Rep. Kay Granger, who represents Fort Worth and is the most senior Republican woman in the House, is facing a primary challenge from a former local City Council member, Chris Putnam, who is flush with campaign cash and has accused her of not being loyal to Trump. She is the top Republican on the House Appropriations Committee, a coveted position usually reserved for members with a long career in Congress.
There is also a 15-way Republican primary for retiring Rep. Pete Olson’s seat representing Sugar Land — one that Democrats hope to win in the general election. Pierce Bush, the grandson of former President George H.W. Bush, is one of the contenders.
Republicans are hoping to take back a seat in Dallas now occupied by US Rep. Colin Allred, a former NFL player and a Democrat who flipped the district blue after narrowly beating the incumbent Pete Sessions in 2018. He’s among 42 members of Congress who are in the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s program to protect incumbents facing tough reelection campaigns, and while many of them have avoided talking about the Democratic primary, Allred has been actively campaigning on behalf of Biden.
The top two Republican contenders in that race are Genevieve Collins, who is running on a pro-business platform and snagged the Dallas Morning News’s endorsement, and Floyd McLendon Jr., a former Navy SEAL who is running on a border security platform.
Meanwhile, immigration attorney Jessica Cisneros is trying to unseat Rep. Henry Cuellar, a conservative Blue Dog Democrat who has backed Trump’s policies 69 percent of the time, endorsed former Republican President George W. Bush, advocated for gun rights, and opposed federal funding for abortions.
Cisneros once interned for Cuellar in Congress, but now she’s running against him with the support of the Justice Democrats — the same group that helped propel Ocasio-Cortez to victory in her 2018 primary campaign against the incumbent Democrat Joe Crowley, who had held his seat in Queens, New York, for two decades.
Cisneros’s candidacy has attracted national attention and endorsements from Sanders and Warren, as well as Ocasio-Cortez. Cisneros has embraced progressive policies, including Medicare-for-all and the Green New Deal, despite her rival’s claims that his district is fundamentally moderate.
And if you’re interested in other Texas House races, we have results from all the Democratic primaries below:
And the GOP ones:


vox--2020-03-04--Super Tuesday: Live results

Super Tuesday: Live results

Super Tuesday is the biggest voting day in the Democratic nomination process , and the results in its 15 contests — which you can follow below — will be enormously consequential in shaping the field going forward .
With the results in the four early states in the books , the Democratic contest is now primarily about one thing : the delegate count .
And that count will be dramatically transformed by Super Tuesday .
Just 155 delegates ( 4 percent of the total ) were allocated in the early states , but 1,344 delegates ( 34 percent of the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in this day ’ s contests .
The day ’ s primary and caucus lineup includes the two most populous states in the country ( California and Texas ) , six other Southern states ( North Carolina , Virginia , Tennessee , Oklahoma , Alabama , Arkansas ) , a New England trio ( Massachusetts , Maine , Vermont ) , two in the West ( Colorado and Utah ) , Minnesota , and American Samoa .
However , not all of these ballots will be cast on Super Tuesday itself — several @ @ @ @ @ @ @ mail balloting weeks ago .
All these contests provide an opportunity for Sen. Bernie Sanders — the current leader in national polls — to lock in a large delegate lead .
But they also provide an opportunity for some other candidate to break away from the pack and become the clear alternative to Sanders — or even to take the lead , if there ’ s a late swing of sufficient magnitude .
Given the results in South Carolina on Saturday , former Vice President Joe Biden now appears to have the best @ @ @ @ @ @ @ page , we ’ ll display the latest vote totals in each contest , courtesy of our friends at Decision Desk ( click on a state on the map to see that state ’ s results ) .
But it ’ s important to keep in mind that these aren ’ t ordinary elections , where winning by 1 point has the same outcome as winning by 20 points .
Democrats allot their delegates proportionally — so overall , big wins are more valuable to candidates than narrow wins .
The American Samoa @ @ @ @ @ @ @ these results you should look at how much of the overall vote each candidate gets , and how much the first-place person is winning by .
Another crucial number is 15 percent : the minimum threshold for a candidate to get delegates ( in a state or congressional district ) .
If several candidates hit 15 percent , the delegates will split among them ; if two or even just one candidate tops 15 percent , they ’ ll get a comparative bonanza .
It will all take some time before the results @ @ @ @ @ @ @ settle the delegate count .
But , broadly , we ’ ll likely get a sense of how the night is going early — whether one candidate is running away with victories across the board , or whether there ’ s more of a muddled , mixed outcome .
We ’ ll know who won most states well before we come close to knowing how the delegate count will shake out , so we ’ ll post that information below once states are called .
These are the states ( and one territory @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to think about the Super Tuesday states We can think of the states with contests on Super Tuesday in three different groups .
First , in a group by itself , is California .
The most populous state in the country also has the most delegates of any state , with about one-third of Super Tuesday ’ s total .
So the question of which candidates meet the 15 percent threshold to get some of California ’ s statewide delegates — and which miss it and get none — will be an important @ @ @ @ @ @ @ also important to keep in mind that in California ( and every other state ) , nearly two-thirds of delegates at stake are allotted based on the results in individual congressional districts .
So candidates can miss the threshold for statewide delegates , but meet it in various congressional districts , and vice versa .
In any case , the vote tally in California is expected to be quite slow — so while we might know who wins quickly ( if there ’ s a lopsided result ) , the delegate split won @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Second , Super Tuesday ’ s map is skewed toward the South — seven Southern states are holding contests , and together they have nearly half of the delegates at stake that day .
The most notable one is Texas ( the second most populous state in the country ) , but the other states there will test Sanders ’ s appeal in a region where he struggled in 2016 .
Third , there ’ s the rest — a trio of New England states , Colorado and Utah from the West @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Together , all these combine for a little less than a quarter of Super Tuesday ’ s delegates — the smallest of these batches .
So Super Tuesday is mostly about California and Southern states , with these other contests in for some variety .
What to look for in the Super Tuesday results Obviously , if a candidate is winning in a lot of big states , they ’ re generally in a good place on Super Tuesday .
But beyond that , the devil ’ s in the details .
Democrats @ @ @ @ @ @ @ statewide results and the results in hundreds of individual districts .
( Most states use congressional districts , but Texas uses state Senate districts . )
It ’ s important to remember that the minimum threshold to get delegates somewhere — whether it be in a state or a congressional district — is 15 percent .
If you fall below that , you get zero delegates there .
Getting zeroed out in a lot of places is terrible for a candidate ’ s hopes of cobbling together a majority of delegates .
Think @ @ @ @ @ @ @ get zero delegates somewhere , you need to get 100 percent of the delegates in a contest of the same size to get back on track for 50 percent of overall delegates .
And winning 100 percent of delegates somewhere is very difficult under proportional rules .
The crowded field also can present huge opportunities for candidates in certain places if they can be the only candidate to top 15 percent of the vote , or the clear leader out of just two candidates who achieve that .
So beyond just winning states @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a crowded field on Super Tuesday should be to maximize their delegate haul by topping 15 percent by as much as possible , in as many states and congressional districts as possible — and hope most or all of their opponents often fall short of that threshold .
The four scenarios for the Super Tuesday outcome The shape of the race after Super Tuesday depends not only on how Bernie Sanders and Joe Biden do in the delegate count — but also on how Mike Bloomberg and Elizabeth Warren perform .
We can @ @ @ @ @ @ @ four broad scenarios .
1 ) One candidate emerges with a large delegate lead and on track for the majority : If one candidate gets 50 percent or more of the delegates allotted on Super Tuesday and a large lead over anyone else , that person would become a strong favorite to win the nomination .
Current polling suggests this is a possibility for Sanders , with it most likely to happen if most or all of his rivals fall under 15 percent in California .
2 ) Two candidates split almost all @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Biden has surged after South Carolina and ends up being competitive with Sanders — and other candidates like Bloomberg and Warren end up getting very few delegates — this would likely mean a two-person race going forward , with the outcome up in the air ( similar to the Democratic contests in 2008 and 2016 ) .
Such a race would , however , likely be settled before the convention : when two candidates split nearly all the delegates , one person is very likely to end up with the majority or quite @ @ @ @ @ @ @ or more candidates split delegates and one takes a large plurality lead : Alternatively , it is possible that there will be a clear “ winner ” on Super Tuesday who is also not on track to win a delegate majority — because delegates have been split among three or more candidates .
This is a tricky scenario .
Whoever ’ s in first would be the favorite to get the nomination eventually , but one or more of their rivals will likely continue campaigning to try and deprive them of the necessary @ @ @ @ @ @ @ convention .
Sanders ( anticipating he could be in this position ) has argued that delegates should just give the nomination to whichever candidate finishes with a plurality of delegates , but the rules do not require this .
4 ) Three or more candidates split delegates and no one leads by much : A split of delegates among several candidates could also result in a very tight outcome where everyone is far off track from getting a majority .
This would be the messiest , most muddled scenario , and the one @ @ @ @ @ @ @ likely .
But if late-deciding Democrats view Sanders and Biden as their two plausible choices — and Bloomberg and Warren regularly fail to hit 15 percent — this outcome would be averted .
Overall , then , Super Tuesday ’ s outcome is highly contingent not just on who “ wins ” states , but on how many of the major candidates remaining manage to clear 15 percent to haul in delegates .
And we won ’ t know what sort of a contest we ’ re looking at going forward until we @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
With California epically slow to count votes , that could take some time .

Super Tuesday is the biggest voting day in the Democratic nomination process, and the results in its 15 contests — which you can follow below — will be enormously consequential in shaping the field going forward.
With the results in the four early states in the books, the Democratic contest is now primarily about one thing: the delegate count. And that count was dramatically transformed by Super Tuesday. Just 155 delegates (4 percent of the total) were allocated in the early states, but 1,344 delegates (34 percent of the total) were up for grabs in the Super Tuesday contests.
The day’s primary and caucus lineup includes the two most populous states in the country (California and Texas), six other Southern states (North Carolina, Virginia, Tennessee, Oklahoma, Alabama, Arkansas), a New England trio (Massachusetts, Maine, Vermont), two in the West (Colorado and Utah), Minnesota, and American Samoa. However, not all of these ballots were cast on Super Tuesday itself — several of these states began early voting or mail balloting weeks ago.
All these contests provided an opportunity for Sen. Bernie Sanders — the current leader in national polls — to lock in a large delegate lead. But they also provided an opportunity for another candidate to break away from the pack and become the clear alternative to Sanders — or even to take the lead, if there’s a late swing of sufficient magnitude. Given the results so far, former Vice President Joe Biden appears to have a good chance of doing so.
On this page, we’ll display the latest vote totals in each contest, courtesy of our friends at Decision Desk (click on a state on the map to see that state’s results). But it’s important to keep in mind that these aren’t ordinary elections, where winning by 1 point has the same outcome as winning by 20 points. Democrats allot their delegates proportionally — so overall, big wins are more valuable to candidates than narrow wins. You can see delegate totals here.
The American Samoa caucus results are reported below:
In these results you should look at how much of the overall vote each candidate gets, and how much the first-place person is winning by. Another crucial number is 15 percent: the minimum threshold for a candidate to get delegates (in a state or congressional district). If several candidates hit 15 percent, the delegates will split among them; if two or even just one candidate tops 15 percent, they’ll get a comparative bonanza.
It will all take some time before the results are nailed down with specificity enough to settle the delegate count. But, broadly, we’ll likely get a sense of who the delegates are going to early on — whether one candidate is running away with victories across the board, or whether there’s more of a muddled, mixed outcome.
The quick results, state by state
We’ll know who won most states well before we come close to knowing how the delegate count will shake out, so we’ll post that information below once states are called. These are the states (and one territory) holding their nomination contests:
California (415 delegates)
Texas (228 delegates) — Winner: Biden
North Carolina (110 delegates) — Winner: Biden
Virginia (99 delegates) — Winner: Biden
Massachusetts (91 delegates) — Winner: Biden
Minnesota (75 delegates) — Winner: Biden
Colorado (67 delegates) — Winner: Sanders
Tennessee (64 delegates) — Winner: Biden
Alabama (52 delegates) — Winner: Biden
Oklahoma (37 delegates) — Winner: Biden
Arkansas (31 delegates) — Winner: Biden
Utah (29 delegates) — Winner: Sanders
Maine (24 delegates) — Winner: Biden
Vermont (16 delegates) — Winner: Sanders
American Samoa (6 delegates) — Winner: Bloomberg
How to think about the Super Tuesday states
We can think of the states with contests on Super Tuesday in three different groups.
First, in a group by itself, is California. The most populous state in the country also has the most delegates of any state, with about one-third of Super Tuesday’s total. So the question of which candidates meet the 15 percent threshold to get some of California’s statewide delegates — and which miss it and get none — will be an important one.
However, it’s also important to keep in mind that in California (and every other state), nearly two-thirds of delegates at stake are allotted based on the results in individual congressional districts. So candidates can miss the threshold for statewide delegates, but meet it in various congressional districts, and vice versa. In any case, the vote tally in California is expected to be quite slow — so while we might know who wins quickly (if there’s a lopsided result), the delegate split won’t be finalized for some time.
Second, Super Tuesday’s map is skewed toward the South — seven Southern states are holding contests, and together they have nearly half of the delegates at stake that day. The most notable one is Texas (the second most populous state in the country), but the other states there will test Sanders’s appeal in a region where he struggled in 2016.
Third, there’s the rest — a trio of New England states, Colorado and Utah from the West, Minnesota, and American Samoa. Together, all these combine for a little less than a quarter of Super Tuesday’s delegates — the smallest of these batches. So Super Tuesday is mostly about California and Southern states, with these other contests in for some variety.
What to look for in the Super Tuesday results
Obviously, if a candidate is winning in a lot of big states, they’re generally in a good place on Super Tuesday.
But beyond that, the devil’s in the details. Democrats allot their delegates proportionally based both on statewide results and the results in hundreds of individual districts. (Most states use congressional districts, but Texas uses state Senate districts.)
It’s important to remember that the minimum threshold to get delegates somewhere — whether it be in a state or a congressional district — is 15 percent. If you fall below that, you get zero delegates there.
Getting zeroed out in a lot of places is terrible for a candidate’s hopes of cobbling together a majority of delegates. Think of it this way — if you get zero delegates somewhere, you need to get 100 percent of the delegates in a contest of the same size to get back on track for 50 percent of overall delegates. And winning 100 percent of delegates somewhere is very difficult under proportional rules.
The crowded field also can present huge opportunities for candidates in certain places if they can be the only candidate to top 15 percent of the vote, or the clear leader out of just two candidates who achieve that.
So beyond just winning states, a candidate’s goal in a crowded field on Super Tuesday should be to maximize their delegate haul by topping 15 percent by as much as possible, in as many states and congressional districts as possible — and hope most or all of their opponents often fall short of that threshold.
The four scenarios for the Super Tuesday outcome
The shape of the race after Super Tuesday depends not only on how Bernie Sanders and Joe Biden do in the delegate count — but also on how Mike Bloomberg and Elizabeth Warren perform. We can think of the possibilities in terms of four broad scenarios.
1) One candidate emerges with a large delegate lead and on track for the majority: If one candidate gets 50 percent or more of the delegates allotted on Super Tuesday and a large lead over anyone else, that person would become a strong favorite to win the nomination. Current polling suggests this is a possibility for Sanders, with it most likely to happen if most or all of his rivals fall under 15 percent in California.
2) Two candidates split almost all the delegates: If, say, Biden has surged after South Carolina and ends up being competitive with Sanders — and other candidates like Bloomberg and Warren end up getting very few delegates — this would likely mean a two-person race going forward, with the outcome up in the air (similar to the Democratic contests in 2008 and 2016). Such a race would, however, likely be settled before the convention: when two candidates split nearly all the delegates, one person is very likely to end up with the majority or quite close to it.
3) Three or more candidates split delegates and one takes a large plurality lead: Alternatively, it is possible that there will be a clear “winner” on Super Tuesday who is also not on track to win a delegate majority — because delegates have been split among three or more candidates. This is a tricky scenario. Whoever’s in first would be the favorite to get the nomination eventually, but one or more of their rivals will likely continue campaigning to try and deprive them of the necessary majority and make things interesting at the convention. Sanders (anticipating he could be in this position) has argued that delegates should just give the nomination to whichever candidate finishes with a plurality of delegates, but the rules do not require this.
4) Three or more candidates split delegates and no one leads by much: A split of delegates among several candidates could also result in a very tight outcome where everyone is far off track from getting a majority. This would be the messiest, most muddled scenario, and the one where a contested convention would be most likely. But if late-deciding Democrats view Sanders and Biden as their two plausible choices — and Bloomberg and Warren regularly fail to hit 15 percent — this outcome would be averted.
Overall, then, Super Tuesday’s outcome is highly contingent not just on who “wins” states, but on how many of the major candidates remaining manage to clear 15 percent to haul in delegates. And we won’t know what sort of a contest we’re looking at going forward until we see how the vote totals shake out. With California epically slow to count votes, that could take some time.


vox--2020-03-04--The race for presidential delegates is well underway. Track them here.

The race for presidential delegates is well underway .
Track them here .
Share All sharing options for : The race for presidential delegates is well underway .
Track them here .
The magic number to win the Democratic Party ’ s nomination for president is 1,991 delegates .
It could take months to officially get there , but Super Tuesday is when a large chunk are awarded .
Presidential candidates are all competing for a majority of 3,979 pledged delegates ; when Super Tuesday is done , 1,344 pledged delegates will be spoken for .
It ’ s important @ @ @ @ @ @ @ know the final allotment for days or possibly weeks , as votes from California are counted .
As of 1:30 am Eastern Wednesday , the following numbers of Super Tuesday delegates have been awarded : These results will be updated throughout the night .
Separately , there are also 771 automatic delegates , otherwise known as “ superdelegates.
” After a contentious 2016 primary , the Democratic National Committee changed its rules around superdelegates so they may now vote on the first ballot to select a nominee at the Democratic National Convention only @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of pledged delegates .
Otherwise , they weigh in during a second round of voting at the convention .
Candidates are competing for these delegates against a backdrop of complex rules : Delegates are awarded proportionally , and most states and districts require a minimum threshold of 15 percent of the primary or caucus vote to earn pledged delegates .
This makes the contest a bit fairer , but also means it ’ s harder to secure that magic number in a contested primary until much later in the year .
The Iowa @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on February 3 .
But while the early states are all about gaining momentum , the race is ultimately about who can bag the most delegates and get to that magic number .
Super Tuesday and the remaining March contests on March 10 and March 17 will get us 61 percent of the way there .
This could all be over very quickly if one candidate racks up an insurmountable lead , or it could drag on into the spring and summer , ahead of the Democratic National Convention in July .
Vox @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of delegates awarded , in partnership with our friends at Decision Desk and the Virginia Center for Politics .
It ’ s easiest to think about the primary race in three phases , as we explained in our primary delegate calendar .
• Phase one : The early states .
This is the all-important opening salvo of Iowa , New Hampshire , Nevada , and South Carolina , but their importance is all about momentum — not delegates .
Taken together , these four states account for 155 delegates , or just 4 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
• Phase two : Super Tuesday and the mid-March contests .
On March 3 , Super Tuesday and its 15 contests are when the presidential race shifts into a true national primary .
A total of 1,344 delegates will be allotted on Super Tuesday alone — about 33 percent of the total .
And 11 more state contests are up for grabs on March 10 and 17 .
By the time March 17 rolls around , 61 percent of the pledged delegates will be allotted .
• Phase three : The slog @ @ @ @ @ @ @ noted , we could either have a pretty good sense of who the nominee will be by mid-March , or the primary could still be contested , as it was in 2016 .
If the latter , the contests to decide the winner will happen from March 18 to June 6 .
Those three months will be when the remaining 39 percent of delegates will be allotted ; the most important day in this stretch is April 28 , when New York and Pennsylvania vote , among others .
The four earliest states @ @ @ @ @ @ @ delegates , but they act to winnow the field to its most serious contenders .
This will be especially important this year , with five Democratic candidates still in the race on Super Tuesday .
Winnowing the field is half the battle .
The race to bag delegates starts in earnest on Super Tuesday .
“ It ’ s a virtual national primary because there are so many states .
The math itself changes , and every network has some sort of chart showing the projected delegate count , ” longtime California Democratic @ @ @ @ @ @ @ And this is not just about winning states , it ’ s also about winning delegates at a congressional district level .
Most states award both delegates based on state-level totals as well as delegates in each individual district .
District-level delegates are the voters and local activists who sign up through their state party to act as delegates — together they make up the vast majority of eligible delegates .
It is critical for Democratic candidates to get at least a 15 percent threshold in states or individual congressional districts in order @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a big part of figuring out delegate math means campaigns have to focus on crunching the numbers to target certain districts with demographics that could be favorable for them .
Here ’ s a breakdown of the delegate math , both pledged delegates and automatic delegates : Again , it ’ s worth noting the biggest DNC rules changes were around superdelegates .
That means these 771 superdelegates will largely sit on the sidelines on the first ballot , unless there ’ s already a candidate with a supermajority of pledged delegates .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ story said it takes 1990 delegates to win the Democratic nomination .
The correct number is 1991 .

Share All sharing options for: The race for presidential delegates is well underway. Track them here.
The magic number to win the Democratic Party’s nomination for president is 1,991 pledged delegates.
No candidate has yet reached that number, but following the March 17 primaries, former Vice President Joe Biden became the first to cross the 1,000 pledged delegate mark, and has established a significant lead on his closest rival, Sen. Bernie Sanders. The final candidate remaining in the race, Rep. Tulsi Gabbard, has won only two delegates so far.
Beyond the race’s 3,979 pledged delegates, there are also 771 automatic delegates, otherwise known as “superdelegates.” After a contentious 2016 primary, the Democratic National Committee (DNC) changed its rules around superdelegates so they may now vote on the first ballot to select a nominee at the Democratic National Convention only if a campaign has secured a supermajority of pledged delegates. Otherwise, they weigh in during a second round of voting at the convention.
Candidates are competing for these delegates against a backdrop of complex rules: Delegates are awarded proportionally, and most states and districts require a minimum threshold of 15 percent of the primary or caucus vote to earn pledged delegates. This may make the contest fairer but means it’s harder to secure that magic number in a contested primary until much later in the year.
The Iowa caucuses officially kicked off the delegate race on February 3. But while the early states were all about gaining momentum, the race is ultimately about who can bag the most delegates and get to that magic number. March was a critical month for delegate math: Super Tuesday, March 10, and the three contests on March 17 got us more than 50 percent of the way there.
Now that those contests have concluded, Biden has racked up a delegate lead that will be difficult for Sanders to surmount. But many states have still yet to vote, and the contest could continue on further into the spring and summer, ahead of the Democratic National Convention in July.
Vox has a tracker for the total number of delegates awarded, in partnership with our friends at Decision Desk and the Virginia Center for Politics.
Delegate math, briefly explained
The four earliest states — Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina — didn’t contain a lot of delegates, but they did winnow the field. This was especially important this year, as several Democratic candidates were still in the race on Super Tuesday, March 3, the first time a large number of delegates were up for grabs.
Winnowing the field — now down, essentially, to Sanders and Biden — is half the battle. The other half is winning enough of the vote to rack up an insurmountable delegate lead.
Doing this is not just about winning states: It’s also about winning delegates at a congressional district level. Most states award delegates proportionally based on state-level totals as well as delegates in each district. District-level delegates are the voters and local activists who sign up through their state party to act as delegates to the convention — together they make up the vast majority of pledged delegates.
It is critical for candidates to get at least a 15 percent threshold in states or individual congressional districts to qualify for pledged delegates. And a big part of figuring out delegate math means campaigns have to focus on crunching the numbers to target certain districts with demographics that could be favorable for them.
For instance, Sanders focused heavily on states with Latinx voters in March, counting on big wins in California and Nevada to boost his delegate count. That did not quite work out as the senator’s campaign hoped, but Biden’s big bets on Southern states that had large black electorates did pay dividends.
Here’s a breakdown of the delegate categories, both for pledged delegates and automatic delegates:
Pledged delegates
District level: 2,591
At-large: 898
Party leaders and state and local elected officials (PLEO): 490
Total: 3,979
Automatic (“super”) delegates
Democratic National Committee members: 445
Democratic members of Congress: 280
Democratic governors: 24
Party leaders: 22
Total: 771
It’s worth noting the DNC’s biggest rules changes were around superdelegates. That means these 771 superdelegates will largely sit on the sidelines on the first ballot unless there’s already a candidate with a supermajority of pledged delegates.
Correction: An earlier version of this story said it takes 1,990 delegates to win the Democratic nomination. The correct number is 1,991.


vox--2020-03-04--Who is winning the Super Tuesday delegate count so far

As votes are still being counted , here ’ s the total delegate count for Super Tuesday so far , powered by results from our partners at Decision Desk and the Virginia Center for Politics .
As of 1:30 am Eastern Wednesday , the following numbers of Super Tuesday delegates have been awarded : These results will be updated throughout the night .
The magic number to win the Democratic Party ’ s nomination for president is 1,991 delegates .
It could take months to officially get there , but Super Tuesday is when a large chunk are awarded .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ that have been awarded since the start of the presidential nominating contest on February 3 .
You can also visit Vox ’ s delegate tracker .
The remaining presidential candidates are all competing for a majority of 3,979 pledged delegates ; when Super Tuesday is done , 1,344 pledged delegates will be spoken for .
It ’ s important to note we likely won ’ t know the final allotment for days or possibly weeks , as votes from California are counted .
Separately , there are also 771 automatic delegates , otherwise @ @ @ @ @ @ @ contentious 2016 primary , the Democratic National Committee changed its rules around superdelegates so they may now vote on the first ballot to select a nominee at the Democratic National Convention only if a campaign has secured a supermajority of pledged delegates .
Otherwise , they weigh in during a second round of voting at the convention .
Candidates are competing for these delegates against a backdrop of complex rules : Delegates are awarded proportionally , and most states and districts require a minimum threshold of 15 percent of the primary or caucus @ @ @ @ @ @ @ makes the contest a bit fairer but also means it ’ s harder to secure that magic number in a contested primary until much later in the year .
The Iowa caucuses officially kicked off the delegate race on February 3 .
But while the early states are all about gaining momentum , the race is ultimately about who can bag the most delegates and get to that magic number .
Super Tuesday and the remaining March contests on the 10th and 17th will get us 61 percent of the way there .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ if one candidate racks up an insurmountable lead .
Or it could drag on into the spring and summer , ahead of the Democratic National Convention in July .

With all but two of the races called, here’s the total delegate count for Super Tuesday so far, powered by results from our partners at Decision Desk and the Virginia Center for Politics.
With the race still to be called in California, the following numbers of Super Tuesday delegates have been awarded:
Former Vice President Joe Biden: 408 delegates
Sen. Bernie Sanders: 344 delegates
Former New York City Mayor Mike Bloomberg (dropped out): 46 delegates
Sen. Elizabeth Warren: 26 delegates
Rep. Tulsi Gabbard: 1 delegate
This total will be updated throughout the day as more results come in.
The magic number to win the Democratic Party’s nomination for president is 1,991 delegates. It could take months to officially get there, but Super Tuesday is when a large chunk are awarded.
Having picked up the above delegates on Super Tuesday, here’s where all the candidates currently stand in overall delegate count (you can visit Vox’s delegate tracker for more on this):
Biden: 465
Sanders: 406
Bloomberg: 46
Warren: 36
Former South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg (dropped out): 26
Sen. Amy Klobuchar (dropped out): 7
Gabbard: 1
The remaining presidential candidates are all competing for a majority of 3,979 pledged delegates; when Super Tuesday is done, 1,344 pledged delegates will have been spoken for. It’s important to note we likely won’t know the final allotment for days — or possibly weeks — as votes from California are counted.
Separately, the race also features 771 automatic delegates, otherwise known as “superdelegates.” After a contentious 2016 primary, the Democratic National Committee changed its rules around superdelegates so they may now vote on the first ballot to select a nominee at the Democratic National Convention only if a campaign has secured a supermajority of pledged delegates. Otherwise, they weigh in during a second round of voting at the convention.
Candidates are competing for pledged delegates against a backdrop of complex rules: Delegates are awarded proportionally, and most states and districts require a minimum threshold of 15 percent of the primary or caucus vote to earn pledged delegates. This makes the contest a bit fairer, but also means it’s harder to secure that magic number in a contested primary until much later in the year.
The Iowa caucuses officially kicked off the delegate race on February 3. But while the early states are all about gaining momentum, the race is ultimately about who can bag the most delegates and get to that magic number. Super Tuesday and the remaining contests on March 10 and 17 will get us 61 percent of the way there.
This could all be over very quickly if one candidate racks up an insurmountable lead, something that has not happened thus far. Should that remain the case, the race will continue into the spring and summer — perhaps even all the way to the Democratic National Convention in July.


vox--2020-03-04--Joe Biden just snagged a surprise victory in the Texas primary after a last-minute surge

Former Vice President Joe Biden has won the Texas Democratic primary , edging out Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders who was widely expected to win the state until the eve of Super Tuesday .
It ’ s a win that solidifies Biden ’ s resurgence after his sweeping victory on Saturday in South Carolina , where he beat Sanders by nearly 30 points .
Biden ’ s campaign had lost momentum following his poor performance in other early voting states , so his recent wins , both in South Carolina and in Texas , may come to the relief of Democratic @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Texas has the second-largest number of delegates at stake among the 14 states with Super Tuesday contests : It will award 228 delegates , 149 of which are tied to the results in 31 individual state Senate precincts and the remaining 79 of which are awarded based on statewide results .
Candidates must capture at least 15 percent of the vote in a single district in order to be awarded those precinct-level delegates and at least 15 percent of the vote statewide for statewide delegates .
About 12 percent of registered voters @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on Friday .
Going into Super Tuesday , it appeared to be a tight contest in Texas between Sanders and former Vice President Joe Biden .
Sanders came to Super Tuesday having recently won back-to-back victories in New Hampshire and Nevada and had been expected to win in Texas until Monday , when Biden picked up endorsements from a slew of candidates who had dropped out of the Democratic primary .
As of March 3 , FiveThirtyEight ’ s average of national polling data showed Sanders in a narrow lead with about 28 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ about 26 percent and former New York City Mayor Mike Bloomberg at 17 percent .
The latest University of Texas/Texas Tribune poll , by comparison , showed Sanders with 24 percent support , just ahead of Biden ’ s 22 percent support .
Texas is a minority-heavy state .
It is one of the states with the largest shares of eligible Latino voters , who make up about 30 percent of the state electorate .
Black voters also accounted for about 13 percent of the electorate .
Non-Hispanic white voters , by comparison @ @ @ @ @ @ @ according to 2018 data from the US Census Bureau .
Sanders has been relying on Latino support to capture the Democratic nomination : He is trying to appeal to them with a progressive policy platform that speaks to their core interests — health care , jobs , and , for some , immigration — and has invested heavily in spreading his message , in both Spanish and English , to Latino communities in Texas and other states .
But on Tuesday in Texas , that strategy didn ’ t appear to work .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ Clinton and Sanders captured about 65 percent and 33 percent of the vote respectively before she later went on to win the Democratic nomination .
Trump won Texas , which has long been a solidly red state , by a margin of about 9 percent percent in the general election over Clinton .
It ’ s possible that Texas could flip blue in 2020 for the first time since 1976 .
The 2018 midterm elections showed the start of that shift : Former Texas Congressman Beto O ’ Rourke , a Democrat , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ losing by a margin of only about 2 percent .
The shift appears to be primarily driven by college-educated voters , rather than , as conventional wisdom goes , the growing number of Latino voters in Texas .

Former Vice President Joe Biden has won the Texas Democratic primary, edging out Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders who was widely expected to win the state until the eve of Super Tuesday.
It’s a win that solidifies Biden’s resurgence after his sweeping victory on Saturday in South Carolina, where he beat Sanders by nearly 30 points. Biden’s campaign had lost momentum following his poor performance in other early voting states, so his recent wins, both in South Carolina and in Texas, may come to the relief of Democratic centrists concerned about Sanders’s electability.
Texas has the second-largest number of delegates at stake among the 14 states with Super Tuesday contests: It will award 228 delegates, 149 of which are tied to the results in 31 individual state Senate precincts and the remaining 79 of which are awarded based on statewide results.
Candidates must capture at least 15 percent of the vote in a single district in order to be awarded those precinct-level delegates and at least 15 percent of the vote statewide for statewide delegates. About 12 percent of registered voters participated in early voting, which ended on Friday.
Going into Super Tuesday, it appeared to be a tight contest in Texas between Sanders and former Vice President Joe Biden. Sanders came to Super Tuesday having recently won back-to-back victories in New Hampshire and Nevada and had been expected to win in Texas until Monday, when Biden picked up endorsements from a slew of candidates who had dropped out of the Democratic primary.
As of March 3, FiveThirtyEight’s average of national polling data showed Sanders in a narrow lead with about 28 percent support, following by Biden at about 26 percent and former New York City Mayor Mike Bloomberg at 17 percent. The latest University of Texas/Texas Tribune poll, by comparison, showed Sanders with 24 percent support, just ahead of Biden’s 22 percent support.
Texas is a minority-heavy state. It is one of the states with the largest shares of eligible Latino voters, who make up about 30 percent of the state electorate. Black voters also accounted for about 13 percent of the electorate. Non-Hispanic white voters, by comparison, made up about 46 percent, according to 2018 data from the US Census Bureau.
Sanders has been relying on Latino support to capture the Democratic nomination: He is trying to appeal to them with a progressive policy platform that speaks to their core interests — health care, jobs, and, for some, immigration — and has invested heavily in spreading his message, in both Spanish and English, to Latino communities in Texas and other states. But on Tuesday in Texas, that strategy didn’t appear to work.
In the 2016 Texas primary, Hillary Clinton and Sanders captured about 65 percent and 33 percent of the vote respectively before she later went on to win the Democratic nomination. Trump won Texas, which has long been a solidly red state, by a margin of about 9 percent percent in the general election over Clinton.
It’s possible that Texas could flip blue in 2020 for the first time since 1976. The 2018 midterm elections showed the start of that shift: Former Texas Congressman Beto O’Rourke, a Democrat, challenged Republican Senator Ted Cruz, narrowly losing by a margin of only about 2 percent. The shift appears to be primarily driven by college-educated voters, rather than, as conventional wisdom goes, the growing number of Latino voters in Texas.


vox--2020-03-04--Sanders can’t lead the Democrats if his campaign treats them like the enemy

Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders have been running very different kinds of campaigns , built on very different ambitions .
Biden ’ s been running to lead the Democratic Party more or less as it exists today .
Sanders , by contrast , has sought to lead a political revolution that will upend not just the Democratic Party but American politics more broadly .
On Super Tuesday , Sanders ’ s political revolution didn ’ t turn out , but the Democratic Party did .
“ A big problem for the Sanders theory of this race is that when turnout @ @ @ @ @ @ @ writes Dave Weigel , a political reporter at the Washington Post .
“ Turnout is way up , but the most reliable new voters are Biden-curious suburbanites.
” As election analyst Dave Wasserman noted , the new voters Sanders promised to pull into the party didn ’ t emerge , and as a result , he ’ s lost ground from 2016 .
Sanders didn ’ t get wiped out on Tuesday night — far from it .
He won Vermont , Utah , and Colorado ( and likely California , though the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for a while ) .
But Biden surged unexpectedly to win Alabama , Arkansas , Massachusetts , Minnesota , North Carolina , Oklahoma , Tennessee , and Virginia — and as I write this , he ’ s narrowly favored to win Texas and Maine , too .
It ’ s not that Sanders is running a weak campaign .
But he is , in a way , running the wrong campaign .
He ’ s the frontrunner for the Democratic nomination — at least he was until tonight — but he ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The political revolution was supposed to close the gap between these realities : If Sanders could turn out enough new voters , he could sweep away the Democratic establishment and build his own party in its place .
But going all the way back to Iowa , that strategy failed .
Sanders won as a Democrat , not a revolutionary , and he needed to pivot to a strategy that would unite the existing Democratic Party around him .
But it ’ s hard to move from treating the Democratic Party establishment with @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , and so far , the Sanders campaign hasn ’ t .
On Tuesday , David Sirota , one of Sanders ’ s speechwriters , tweeted : In recent weeks , Biden has been racking up endorsements from Democratic Party heavyweights .
Days before the crucial South Carolina primary , Rep. Jim Clyburn blessed Biden — giving him the single most important endorsement a Democrat can win in South Carolina .
Biden went on to win the primary by almost 30 points .
Days later , Biden got endorsements from Pete Buttigieg , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Rourke , and Harry Reid — endorsements that , in his speech Tuesday night , he credited with helping him notch a shockingly strong Super Tuesday performance .
Sanders ’ s supporters have reacted to these endorsements with fury .
To them , it ’ s proof the fix is in .
If that ’ s the lesson Sanders ’ s supporters take about how power works , it ’ s the wrong lesson .
The work of the president requires convincing legislators in your party to support your agenda , sometimes at @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ambitions .
If Sanders and his team don ’ t figure out how to do it , they could very well lose to Biden , and even if they win , they ’ ll be unable to govern .
Persuading the Amy Klobuchars of the world to support you , even when they know it ’ s a risk , is exactly what the president needs to do to pass bills , whether that ’ s a Green New Deal or Medicare-for-all or just an infrastructure package .
Biden , for all his @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is showing he still has that legislator ’ s touch .
That he can unite the party around him , and convince even moderate Democrats to support a liberal agenda , is literally the case for his candidacy .
Sanders hasn ’ t demonstrated that same skill over the course of this primary , or his career .
Worse , his most enthusiastic supporters treat that kind of transactional politicking with contempt .
Senators like Cory Booker , Kamala Harris , and Elizabeth Warren , who co-sponsored Sanders ’ s Medicare-for-all bill but @ @ @ @ @ @ @ sections , were treated not as allies to cultivate but as traitors to exile .
Similarly , Sanders ’ s supporters have been furious , for weeks , that Warren hasn ’ t dropped out and endorsed Sanders .
What they haven ’ t done is ask why Sanders hasn ’ t been able to convince her — or any of the major Democrats who have already dropped out — to endorse him .
Whatever case Biden is making or deals he ’ s offering , Sanders isn ’ t matching him .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ by Sanders supporters filling Twitter with tweets calling Warren a snake and the Democratic establishment a cabal .
Tellingly , what Sanders did get was Marianne Williamson ’ s backing , and she ’ s arguing that the Democrats supporting Biden are launching a coup worse than anything attempted by Russia : This kind of thinking is a bigger problem for the Sanders operation than people realize : If you treat voters and officials in the party you want to lead as the enemy , a lot of people in that party aren @ @ @ @ @ @ @ lead them .
It ’ s part of the reason Sanders trails not just Biden but also Mike Bloomberg and Warren in endorsements from prominent elected Democrats .
This is a real weakness for Sanders , and one that ’ ll be hard to address : That he ’ s an insurgent facing down a corrupt Democratic establishment is core to his identity , and to the bond he ’ s built with his staunchest supporters .
But to win the Democratic primary and govern as a Democratic president , you need to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ your natural allies , who didn ’ t start out in your corner .
Biden knows that and acts accordingly .
The Sanders campaign is going to have to learn the same lesson , and fast .

Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders have been running very different kinds of campaigns, built on very different ambitions. Biden’s been running to lead the Democratic Party more or less as it exists today. Sanders, by contrast, has sought to lead a political revolution that will upend not just the Democratic Party but American politics more broadly.
On Super Tuesday, Sanders’s political revolution didn’t turn out, but the Democratic Party did.
“A big problem for the Sanders theory of this race is that when turnout is high, he wins,” writes Dave Weigel, a political reporter at the Washington Post. “Turnout is way up, but the most reliable new voters are Biden-curious suburbanites.” As election analyst Dave Wasserman noted, the new voters Sanders promised to pull into the party didn’t emerge, and as a result, he’s lost ground from 2016.
Sanders's pledge to bring new voters into his movement seems fairly empty in the results we're seeing so far. His coalition has shrunk since 2016, not grown. — Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) March 4, 2020
Sanders didn’t get wiped out on Tuesday night — far from it. He won Vermont, Utah, and Colorado (and likely California, though the final tallies won’t be reported for a while). But Biden surged unexpectedly to win Alabama, Arkansas, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, and Virginia — and as I write this, he’s narrowly favored to win Texas and Maine, too.
It’s not that Sanders is running a weak campaign. But he is, in a way, running the wrong campaign. He’s the frontrunner for the Democratic nomination — at least he was until tonight — but he’s still running as an insurgent. The political revolution was supposed to close the gap between these realities: If Sanders could turn out enough new voters, he could sweep away the Democratic establishment and build his own party in its place. But going all the way back to Iowa, that strategy failed. Sanders won as a Democrat, not a revolutionary, and he needed to pivot to a strategy that would unite the existing Democratic Party around him.
But it’s hard to move from treating the Democratic Party establishment with contempt to treating it like a constituency, and so far, the Sanders campaign hasn’t. On Tuesday, David Sirota, one of Sanders’s speechwriters, tweeted:
I'm not moving to DC no matter what, so I'll speak a truth that's not allowed to be said:
Joe Biden is a full-employment program for the Beltway Democratic establishment. He makes sure that for them, nothing would fundamentally change. That's a huge part of why they support him. — David Sirota (@davidsirota) March 3, 2020
In recent weeks, Biden has been racking up endorsements from Democratic Party heavyweights. Days before the crucial South Carolina primary, Rep. Jim Clyburn blessed Biden — giving him the single most important endorsement a Democrat can win in South Carolina. Biden went on to win the primary by almost 30 points. Days later, Biden got endorsements from Pete Buttigieg, Sen. Amy Klobuchar, Beto O’Rourke, and Harry Reid — endorsements that, in his speech Tuesday night, he credited with helping him notch a shockingly strong Super Tuesday performance.
Sanders’s supporters have reacted to these endorsements with fury. To them, it’s proof the fix is in.
If Biden wins the nomination, it will be a real lesson in how power works. Bernie was on track to win, Biden had no campaign, and they all knew it. So a few phone calls were made behind the scenes to Amy, Pete, Beto. Several million was put into a pro-Warren Super PAC. Voila! — Nathan J Robinson (@NathanJRobinson) March 4, 2020
If that’s the lesson Sanders’s supporters take about how power works, it’s the wrong lesson. The work of the president requires convincing legislators in your party to support your agenda, sometimes at the cost of your political or policy ambitions. If Sanders and his team don’t figure out how to do it, they could very well lose to Biden, and even if they win, they’ll be unable to govern.
Persuading the Amy Klobuchars of the world to support you, even when they know it’s a risk, is exactly what the president needs to do to pass bills, whether that’s a Green New Deal or Medicare-for-all or just an infrastructure package. Biden, for all his weak debate performances and meandering speeches, is showing he still has that legislator’s touch. That he can unite the party around him, and convince even moderate Democrats to support a liberal agenda, is literally the case for his candidacy.
Sanders hasn’t demonstrated that same skill over the course of this primary, or his career. Worse, his most enthusiastic supporters treat that kind of transactional politicking with contempt. Senators like Cory Booker, Kamala Harris, and Elizabeth Warren, who co-sponsored Sanders’s Medicare-for-all bill but quibbled with details or wanted to soften sections, were treated not as allies to cultivate but as traitors to exile.
Similarly, Sanders’s supporters have been furious, for weeks, that Warren hasn’t dropped out and endorsed Sanders. What they haven’t done is ask why Sanders hasn’t been able to convince her — or any of the major Democrats who have already dropped out — to endorse him. Whatever case Biden is making or deals he’s offering, Sanders isn’t matching him. Or perhaps the well has been poisoned by Sanders supporters filling Twitter with tweets calling Warren a snake and the Democratic establishment a cabal.
Tellingly, what Sanders did get was Marianne Williamson’s backing, and she’s arguing that the Democrats supporting Biden are launching a coup worse than anything attempted by Russia:
This kind of thinking is a bigger problem for the Sanders operation than people realize: If you treat voters and officials in the party you want to lead as the enemy, a lot of people in that party aren’t going to trust you to lead them. It’s part of the reason Sanders trails not just Biden but also Mike Bloomberg and Warren in endorsements from prominent elected Democrats.
This is a real weakness for Sanders, and one that’ll be hard to address: That he’s an insurgent facing down a corrupt Democratic establishment is core to his identity, and to the bond he’s built with his staunchest supporters. But to win the Democratic primary and govern as a Democratic president, you need to win over Democrats who aren’t your natural allies, who didn’t start out in your corner. Biden knows that and acts accordingly. The Sanders campaign is going to have to learn the same lesson, and fast.
Listen to The Weeds
Every other Saturday from now to Election Day, Vox co-founders Matthew Yglesias and Ezra Klein will sit down to discuss the most important elements of the 2020 race to the White House. Subscribe to The Weeds, Vox’s podcast for politics and policy discussions, on Apple Podcasts, Google Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, or wherever you like to listen.


vox--2020-03-04--Why Elizabeth Warren is staying in the race

Sen. Elizabeth Warren wants to persist her way to the convention — and even though Super Tuesday did not go as she had hoped , how long she stays in could have some important implications for how the 2020 Democratic primary plays out .
Moderates appear to be rallying around former Vice President Joe Biden .
Sen. Amy Klobuchar and former South Bend , Indiana , Mayor Pete Buttigieg dropped out and endorsed him in an attempt to consolidate the anti-Sen. Bernie Sanders coalition .
That ’ s potentially a problem for the left .
“ Moderates consolidating their support @ @ @ @ @ @ @ little bit more divided between Warren and Sanders is not an ideal situation , ” said Julian NoiseCat , vice president of policy and strategy at the progressive think tank Data for Progress .
Pressure is mounting on Warren to drop out as well , but so far , she seems determined to stick with it , though it ’ s unclear how her performance on Super Tuesday , including a third-place finish in her home state of Massachusetts , may change her calculation .
Warren ’ s campaign rolled out a lengthy @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to continue throughout the spring and summer .
What Warren deciding to stay in the race means isn ’ t as clear-cut as you might think — voters aren ’ t super-ideological , and Sanders isn ’ t all of her supporters ’ second choice , nor are all the Buttigieg and Klobuchar backers going to go to Biden .
“ Possibly the biggest beneficiary of Pete and Amy suspending their campaigns is Elizabeth Warren , ” said Adam Green , co-founder of the Progressive Change Campaign Committee , which backs Warren .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ people ’ s first or second choice , but she was also particularly Amy and Pete [ voters ’ ] second choice.
” Warren spent the closing weeks of the campaign casting herself as the unity candidate that can bring together the progressive and moderate wings of the party .
She ’ s finally getting the race she wanted , and she ’ s not stopping now .
At least not yet .
What Warren is doing Warren ’ s strategy appears to hinge on a brokered Democratic National Convention in Milwaukee this @ @ @ @ @ @ @ after March 3 , the reality of this race will be clear : No candidate will likely have a path to the majority of delegates needed to win an outright claim to the Democratic nomination , ” her campaign manager Roger Lau wrote in a recent memo .
“ In the road to the nomination , the Wisconsin primary is halftime , and the convention in Milwaukee is the final play.
” Warren being one of the last candidates left standing is exactly the scenario her campaign envisioned .
The fact that it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ be even better .
As she ’ s now the top woman candidate in the race , pollsters are waiting to see if more women voters back Warren .
“ She has the ability to potentially find a path where she consolidates and gets women across the country to support her , ” said Suffolk University pollster David Paleologos .
Warren ’ s ability to do well on Super Tuesday hinged on good performances in delegate-rich states like California , Colorado , and Virginia , which at least at this point appears not @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ t even necessarily have to win — she just has to clear the 15 percent threshold in California and get a significant enough number of delegates to deny either Sanders or Biden the nomination outright .
Warren ’ s campaign did not respond to a request for comment for this story .
“ We believe that Super Tuesday will greatly winnow this field and it will become clear that only a few candidates will have a viable path to the Democratic nomination — and Elizabeth Warren will be one of them , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ A symbol of this strategy played out in her home state of Massachusetts , which voted Tuesday and has a not-insignificant 91 delegates .
A Saturday Suffolk University/The Boston Globe/WBZ-TV poll found Warren in a statistical tie with Sanders , and an earlier WBUR poll found Sanders 8 points ahead of Warren ( a necessary caveat with these polls is that Klobuchar and Buttigieg have since dropped out , which could change the numbers significantly ) .
But on Tuesday , Biden won the state with Sanders in second , meaning Warren was @ @ @ @ @ @ @ some delegates in Massachusetts , plus she may pick up some in Colorado , Minnesota , and California , and that makes her a player in a brokered convention scenario .
These are states with large numbers of college-educated white voters , which is a key demographic for her .
Though she has potential to do well with women , one of Warren ’ s consistent problems in her past Senate races in Massachusetts is winning over male voters .
While she has high favorability ratings among women , it ’ s much @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in her home state .
Warren underperformed with independent men in her 2012 and 2018 Senate races , and the demographic is continuing to be problematic for her .
“ Warren would win the Massachusetts primary [ on Tuesday ] if only women were voting , ” Paleologos said ahead of the primary .
“ She was tied for fourth place in her home state among men .
The problem is Sanders really has demographics in Massachusetts that are strong and uncontested.
” That could also spell trouble for her strategy in other @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Sanders and Biden .
Some progressives are heavily hinting that Warren should drop out Still , Warren and Sanders are close enough ideologically that many think Warren staying in helps Biden .
She does this in two ways , said Dave Wasserman , editor of the Cook Political Report .
“ First , more of Warren ’ s support would go to Sanders than Biden .
Second , if she hits the 15 percent threshold in California and other states , it limits Sanders ’ s delegate haul in places where he ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
That is causing some hand-wringing from some prominent progressives who endorsed Sanders .
Without mentioning Warren ’ s name , Evan Weber , the political director of the youth climate group the Sunrise Movement , tweeted , “ Corporate Democrats are consolidating , what ’ s our strategy ?
” “ The Warren campaign has clearly invested a lot into Super Tuesday ... so I don ’ t think it would make sense for her to drop out before Super Tuesday , and I don ’ t think she will , ” @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ But at the same time , it is clear the establishment of the Democratic Party is increasingly getting scared about the chances of a progressive nomination — in particular a Sanders nomination — and seem to be consolidating their support around either Joe Biden or Michael Bloomberg.
” While Weber and others aren ’ t yet openly calling for Warren to drop out , progressive activists want to make sure Warren and Sanders sharpen their attacks on Biden and Bloomberg , not each other .
“ Sen .
Warren has been an @ @ @ @ @ @ @ entire career , ” said Alexandra Rojas , executive director of Justice Democrats , in a statement to Vox .
“ But I hope she stops attacking Sen. Sanders and publicly commits to give her delegates to him if he has more votes to ensure a progressive wins the nomination .
I ’ d say the same to Bernie.
” After referring to each other as “ friends ” for much of the 2020 primary , Warren and Sanders had a very public rift in January after Warren confirmed a report that Sanders @ @ @ @ @ @ @ believed a woman couldn ’ t win in 2020 , which Sanders denied .
Progressive groups that have endorsed both Warren and Sanders have been trying to keep tensions down and channels of communication open .
But at least one progressive leader openly wondered whether Warren would endorse Sanders if she dropped out .
“ I think there would be concern if she didn ’ t continue that there might not be an endorsement at all , ” said Larry Cohen , board chairman for Sanders-affiliated group Our Revolution .
“ The nature @ @ @ @ @ @ @ campaign as an end .
...
It ’ s not an end , it facilitates change in the country.
” Some establishment types who are worried about whether Sanders is “ electable ” might prefer a race without Warren in it , too .
If they think Biden is the best one to take on democratic socialist from Vermont and figure that at least some of her support will go to him , they don ’ t want her muddling the race , either .
“ The mainstream is convinced that a Sanders @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to pick up the Senate , ” said Rachel Bitecofer , a political scientist at the Niskanen Center .
“ I would guess that they are putting a lot of pressure on her , too.
” Many Warren supporters would go to Sanders , but not all of them .
According to Morning Consult , Sanders is the second choice for 40 percent of Warren backers , but Biden and Buttigieg would pick up 16 percent of her supporters , and Klobuchar 12 percent .
With Buttigieg and Klobuchar out of the race @ @ @ @ @ @ @ next choice .
Green says Warren remaining in the race is actually staving off the potential flow of some of her supporters to Biden .
“ If she were out , some of her supporters would flow to Biden , so Bernie people are shooting themselves in the foot on multiple fronts by urging Warren to get out , ” Green said .
“ They should want her to [ be ] a magnet for Amy and Pete supporters , so they don ’ t flow to Biden.
” Warren is the most @ @ @ @ @ @ @ She has a unique and impressive résumé , is a talented campaigner , and her pages upon pages of plans have set much of the direction of the primary .
And at least for a while , voters were taking notice in 2019 when she began to rise in the polls .
If she drops out of the 2020 contest , there will certainly be a lot of questions about what happened and why she was unable to get sustainable traction among voters .
And , inevitably , the role of misogyny and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is “ electable ” is a factor as well .
“ Elizabeth Warren has obviously stood for many of the right causes and gotten a lot of amazing things done throughout her career .
It ’ s also fair to say that some of the attacks on her from both moderates and the left were quite unfair , ” NoiseCat said .
“ It ’ s also , at the same time , hard to say that she didn ’ t get a shot.
” From an aesthetic perspective , it seems in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ whatever the actual votes are .
Sanders could use an endorsement to give his campaign a bit of a boost , at least narrative-wise , and Warren could do that .
Of course , Warren ’ s job is to focus on herself , not to save Sanders or Biden .
Becoming the sensible third option is the race she wanted to run .
The question now is if voters don ’ t move to her , how long does she stay in ?
Though her base was never as big as Sanders @ @ @ @ @ @ @ vision , and many of her followers genuinely believe in it .
“ There could be significant underlying feeling among people who are pretty engaged in politics , particularly young leftists , that she played a role in undermining Bernie ’ s path to the nomination , ” NoiseCat said .
“ And I think that would be really unfortunate.
” Correction : An earlier version of this story included Washington as a Super Tuesday state .
It votes on March 10 .

Sen. Elizabeth Warren wants to persist her way to the convention — and even though Super Tuesday did not go as she had hoped, how long she stays in could have some important implications for how the 2020 Democratic primary plays out.
Moderates appear to be rallying around former Vice President Joe Biden. Sen. Amy Klobuchar and former South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg dropped out and endorsed him in an attempt to consolidate the anti-Sen. Bernie Sanders coalition. That’s potentially a problem for the left.
“Moderates consolidating their support around Biden and progressives remaining still a little bit more divided between Warren and Sanders is not an ideal situation,” said Julian NoiseCat, vice president of policy and strategy at the progressive think tank Data for Progress.
Pressure is mounting on Warren to drop out as well, but so far, she seems determined to stick with it, though it’s unclear how her performance on Super Tuesday, including a third-place finish in her home state of Massachusetts, may change her calculation. Warren’s campaign rolled out a lengthy memo over the weekend about her plans to continue throughout the spring and summer.
What Warren deciding to stay in the race means isn’t as clear-cut as you might think — voters aren’t super-ideological, and Sanders isn’t all of her supporters’ second choice, nor are all the Buttigieg and Klobuchar backers going to go to Biden.
“Possibly the biggest beneficiary of Pete and Amy suspending their campaigns is Elizabeth Warren,” said Adam Green, co-founder of the Progressive Change Campaign Committee, which backs Warren. “She, in general, was people’s first or second choice, but she was also particularly Amy and Pete [voters’] second choice.”
Warren spent the closing weeks of the campaign casting herself as the unity candidate that can bring together the progressive and moderate wings of the party.
She’s finally getting the race she wanted, and she’s not stopping now. At least not yet.
What Warren is doing
Warren’s strategy appears to hinge on a brokered Democratic National Convention in Milwaukee this summer.
“As the dust settles after March 3, the reality of this race will be clear: No candidate will likely have a path to the majority of delegates needed to win an outright claim to the Democratic nomination,” her campaign manager Roger Lau wrote in a recent memo. “In the road to the nomination, the Wisconsin primary is halftime, and the convention in Milwaukee is the final play.”
Warren being one of the last candidates left standing is exactly the scenario her campaign envisioned. The fact that it happened the day before Super Tuesday could be even better. As she’s now the top woman candidate in the race, pollsters are waiting to see if more women voters back Warren.
“She has the ability to potentially find a path where she consolidates and gets women across the country to support her,” said Suffolk University pollster David Paleologos.
Warren’s ability to do well on Super Tuesday hinged on good performances in delegate-rich states like California, Colorado, and Virginia, which at least at this point appears not to have happened. She still doesn’t even necessarily have to win — she just has to clear the 15 percent threshold in California and get a significant enough number of delegates to deny either Sanders or Biden the nomination outright.
Warren’s campaign did not respond to a request for comment for this story.
“We believe that Super Tuesday will greatly winnow this field and it will become clear that only a few candidates will have a viable path to the Democratic nomination — and Elizabeth Warren will be one of them,” Lau said in his memo.
A symbol of this strategy played out in her home state of Massachusetts, which voted Tuesday and has a not-insignificant 91 delegates. A Saturday Suffolk University/The Boston Globe/WBZ-TV poll found Warren in a statistical tie with Sanders, and an earlier WBUR poll found Sanders 8 points ahead of Warren (a necessary caveat with these polls is that Klobuchar and Buttigieg have since dropped out, which could change the numbers significantly). But on Tuesday, Biden won the state with Sanders in second, meaning Warren was in third.
Warren will still get some delegates in Massachusetts, plus she may pick up some in Colorado, Minnesota, and California, and that makes her a player in a brokered convention scenario. These are states with large numbers of college-educated white voters, which is a key demographic for her.
Though she has potential to do well with women, one of Warren’s consistent problems in her past Senate races in Massachusetts is winning over male voters. While she has high favorability ratings among women, it’s much lower among men — especially independent men in her home state. Warren underperformed with independent men in her 2012 and 2018 Senate races, and the demographic is continuing to be problematic for her.
“Warren would win the Massachusetts primary [on Tuesday] if only women were voting,” Paleologos said ahead of the primary. “She was tied for fourth place in her home state among men. The problem is Sanders really has demographics in Massachusetts that are strong and uncontested.”
That could also spell trouble for her strategy in other states as well, especially running against Sanders and Biden.
Some progressives are heavily hinting that Warren should drop out
Still, Warren and Sanders are close enough ideologically that many think Warren staying in helps Biden. She does this in two ways, said Dave Wasserman, editor of the Cook Political Report. “First, more of Warren’s support would go to Sanders than Biden. Second, if she hits the 15 percent threshold in California and other states, it limits Sanders’s delegate haul in places where he’d otherwise romp,” he said.
That is causing some hand-wringing from some prominent progressives who endorsed Sanders. Without mentioning Warren’s name, Evan Weber, the political director of the youth climate group the Sunrise Movement, tweeted, “Corporate Democrats are consolidating, what’s our strategy?”
I’m worried about what Klobuchar endorsing Biden means for the progressive movement and our chances to win governing power.
Corporate Democrats are consolidating, what’s our strategy? — Evan Weber (@evanlweber) March 2, 2020
“The Warren campaign has clearly invested a lot into Super Tuesday ... so I don’t think it would make sense for her to drop out before Super Tuesday, and I don’t think she will,” Weber told Vox in an interview. “But at the same time, it is clear the establishment of the Democratic Party is increasingly getting scared about the chances of a progressive nomination — in particular a Sanders nomination — and seem to be consolidating their support around either Joe Biden or Michael Bloomberg.”
While Weber and others aren’t yet openly calling for Warren to drop out, progressive activists want to make sure Warren and Sanders sharpen their attacks on Biden and Bloomberg, not each other.
“Sen. Warren has been an ally of the progressive movement throughout her entire career,” said Alexandra Rojas, executive director of Justice Democrats, in a statement to Vox. “But I hope she stops attacking Sen. Sanders and publicly commits to give her delegates to him if he has more votes to ensure a progressive wins the nomination. I’d say the same to Bernie.”
After referring to each other as “friends” for much of the 2020 primary, Warren and Sanders had a very public rift in January after Warren confirmed a report that Sanders told her in a 2018 meeting he believed a woman couldn’t win in 2020, which Sanders denied. Progressive groups that have endorsed both Warren and Sanders have been trying to keep tensions down and channels of communication open. But at least one progressive leader openly wondered whether Warren would endorse Sanders if she dropped out.
“I think there would be concern if she didn’t continue that there might not be an endorsement at all,” said Larry Cohen, board chairman for Sanders-affiliated group Our Revolution. “The nature of these campaigns turns it into the campaign as an end. ... It’s not an end, it facilitates change in the country.”
Some establishment types who are worried about whether Sanders is “electable” might prefer a race without Warren in it, too. If they think Biden is the best one to take on democratic socialist from Vermont and figure that at least some of her support will go to him, they don’t want her muddling the race, either. “The mainstream is convinced that a Sanders nomination tanks the presidency and their potential to pick up the Senate,” said Rachel Bitecofer, a political scientist at the Niskanen Center. “I would guess that they are putting a lot of pressure on her, too.”
Many Warren supporters would go to Sanders, but not all of them. According to Morning Consult, Sanders is the second choice for 40 percent of Warren backers, but Biden and Buttigieg would pick up 16 percent of her supporters, and Klobuchar 12 percent. With Buttigieg and Klobuchar out of the race, Biden could very well be their next choice.
Green says Warren remaining in the race is actually staving off the potential flow of some of her supporters to Biden.
“If she were out, some of her supporters would flow to Biden, so Bernie people are shooting themselves in the foot on multiple fronts by urging Warren to get out,” Green said. “They should want her to [be] a magnet for Amy and Pete supporters, so they don’t flow to Biden.”
Did Warren get a fair shake?
Warren is the most competent candidate in the 2020 race. She has a unique and impressive résumé, is a talented campaigner, and her pages upon pages of plans have set much of the direction of the primary. And at least for a while, voters were taking notice in 2019 when she began to rise in the polls.
If she drops out of the 2020 contest, there will certainly be a lot of questions about what happened and why she was unable to get sustainable traction among voters. And, inevitably, the role of misogyny and how it plays into what people think is “electable” is a factor as well.
“Elizabeth Warren has obviously stood for many of the right causes and gotten a lot of amazing things done throughout her career. It’s also fair to say that some of the attacks on her from both moderates and the left were quite unfair,” NoiseCat said. “It’s also, at the same time, hard to say that she didn’t get a shot.”
From an aesthetic perspective, it seems in many ways like Biden is surging, whatever the actual votes are. Sanders could use an endorsement to give his campaign a bit of a boost, at least narrative-wise, and Warren could do that.
Of course, Warren’s job is to focus on herself, not to save Sanders or Biden. Becoming the sensible third option is the race she wanted to run. The question now is if voters don’t move to her, how long does she stay in? Though her base was never as big as Sanders’s, she articulated a clear vision, and many of her followers genuinely believe in it.
“There could be significant underlying feeling among people who are pretty engaged in politics, particularly young leftists, that she played a role in undermining Bernie’s path to the nomination,” NoiseCat said. “And I think that would be really unfortunate.”
Correction: An earlier version of this story included Washington as a Super Tuesday state. It votes on March 10.
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