vox--2020-03-04--The Alabama Republican Senate runoff is bad news for Jeff Sessions

Jeff Sessions held an Alabama Senate seat for 20 years — and now he ’ s trying to take it back .
The problem is , he ’ s got a bit more competition this time around , not to mention the ongoing hostility he faces from President Donald Trump .
Sessions , who left the Senate in 2017 for a year-and-a-half stint as Trump ’ s attorney general , was one of two candidates who performed well enough on Super Tuesday to advance to a runoff in the Republican Senate primary .
He secured 31.7 percent voter support to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s 33.4 percent , with 100 percent of precincts reporting .
Because neither candidate was able to hit the 50 percent threshold required by state law , the race heads to a runoff on March 31 .
This outcome isn ’ t great for Sessions , who not only was unable to win the primary outright but also trailed Tuberville in the final results , though the margin was narrow .
That ’ s a pretty big blow for the former attorney general , who had been quite popular when he represented @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in on the results on Wednesday morning , jabbing at Sessions , who left his AG post on notoriously bad terms after opting to recuse himself from investigations into Russian interference during the 2016 election .
Sessions and Tuberville have until the end of the month to make their case to Alabama voters and go head-to-head , now that other candidates like Roy Moore and Rep. Bradley Byrne have been eliminated .
The winner will go up against Democratic Sen. Doug Jones , a top Republican target , in what ’ s expected @ @ @ @ @ @ @ fall .
The runoff is poised to be intense , if the candidates ’ remarks this week are any indication .
Sessions , while he ’ s made an aggressive effort to demonstrate his ongoing loyalty to Trump , is being hit on this very issue by Tuberville , who has similarly tried to align himself closely with the president .
“ We ’ re going to finish what President Trump started when he looked at Jeff Sessions from across the table and said , ‘ You ’ re fired , ’ ” @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Sessions , meanwhile , has emphasized that Tuberville — who ’ s sought to paint himself as an outsider candidate — is inexperienced and murky on policy positions .
“ I have fought on the great issues of our day , and I have won , ” Sessions argued in a speech , citing his long-standing commitment to Trump ’ s agenda in areas like immigration .
Trump has a fairly high approval rating in Alabama : He ’ s currently at 62 percent , according to Morning Consult .
At this @ @ @ @ @ @ @ he ’ ll wade further into the race , but if he does , it could potentially hurt Sessions ’ s attempts to win , given the ongoing tension between the two .
Whoever wins the March runoff will take on Jones — widely viewed as the most vulnerable Senate Democrat this cycle — in November .
Jones won a stunning but narrow victory in the 2017 special election , flipping the Alabama Senate seat for the first time in more than 20 years .
His success was buoyed by the support of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ own candidacy , and the extensive weaknesses of his opponent Roy Moore , a former Alabama chief justice who faced multiple allegations of sexual misconduct toward underaged women .
Jones ’ s approval rating is a decent 41 percent , but he ’ s confronted with the challenge of a majority-Republican electorate at the polls .
Jones is looking to stave off the Republican attempts to retake the seat this fall — a move that ’ s expected to be quite tough , especially because the candidate he ’ s up against won @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Moore did .
Cook Political Report currently rates the seat as “ Lean Republican .
”

Jeff Sessions held an Alabama Senate seat for 20 years — and now he’s trying to take it back.
The problem is, he’s got a bit more competition this time around, not to mention the ongoing hostility he faces from President Donald Trump. Sessions, who left the Senate in 2017 for a year-and-a-half stint as Trump’s attorney general, was one of two candidates who performed well enough on Super Tuesday to advance to a runoff in the Republican Senate primary.
He secured 31.7 percent voter support to former Auburn University football coach Tommy Tuberville’s 33.4 percent, with 100 percent of precincts reporting. Because neither candidate was able to hit the 50 percent threshold required by state law, the race heads to a runoff on March 31.
This outcome isn’t great for Sessions, who not only was unable to win the primary outright but also trailed Tuberville in the final results, though the margin was narrow. That’s a pretty big blow for the former attorney general, who had been quite popular when he represented Alabama in the Senate.
Trump weighed in on the results on Wednesday morning, jabbing at Sessions, who left his AG post on notoriously bad terms after opting to recuse himself from investigations into Russian interference during the 2016 election.
This is what happens to someone who loyally gets appointed Attorney General of the United States & then doesn’t have the wisdom or courage to stare down & end the phony Russia Witch Hunt. Recuses himself on FIRST DAY in office, and the Mueller Scam begins! https://t.co/2jGnRgOS6h — Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) March 4, 2020
Sessions and Tuberville have until the end of the month to make their case to Alabama voters and go head-to-head, now that other candidates like Roy Moore and Rep. Bradley Byrne have been eliminated.
The winner will go up against Democratic Sen. Doug Jones, a top Republican target, in what’s expected to be a highly competitive race this fall.
The Senate Republican runoff, briefly explained
The runoff is poised to be intense, if the candidates’ remarks this week are any indication.
Sessions, while he’s made an aggressive effort to demonstrate his ongoing loyalty to Trump, is being hit on this very issue by Tuberville, who has similarly tried to align himself closely with the president.
“We’re going to finish what President Trump started when he looked at Jeff Sessions from across the table and said, ‘You’re fired,’” Tuberville said in a speech this week.
Sessions, meanwhile, has emphasized that Tuberville — who’s sought to paint himself as an outsider candidate — is inexperienced and murky on policy positions.
“I have fought on the great issues of our day, and I have won,” Sessions argued in a speech, citing his long-standing commitment to Trump’s agenda in areas like immigration.
Trump has a fairly high approval rating in Alabama: He’s currently at 62 percent, according to Morning Consult. At this point, it’s unclear if he’ll wade further into the race, but if he does, it could potentially hurt Sessions’s attempts to win, given the ongoing tension between the two.
Doug Jones faces intense competition in the Alabama Senate race
Whoever wins the March runoff will take on Jones — widely viewed as the most vulnerable Senate Democrat this cycle — in November.
Jones won a stunning but narrow victory in the 2017 special election, flipping the Alabama Senate seat for the first time in more than 20 years. His success was buoyed by the support of black voters, the strength of his own candidacy, and the extensive weaknesses of his opponent Roy Moore, a former Alabama chief justice who faced multiple allegations of sexual misconduct toward underaged women.
Jones’s approval rating is a decent 41 percent, but he’s confronted with the challenge of a majority-Republican electorate at the polls. Jones is looking to stave off the Republican attempts to retake the seat this fall — a move that’s expected to be quite tough, especially because the candidate he’s up against won’t have the same challenges that Moore did.
Cook Political Report currently rates the seat as “Lean Republican.”


vox--2020-03-04--Italy is shutting down schools nationwide to help curb its growing coronavirus outbreak

Italy is shutting down its schools for two weeks , as the government works to contain the novel coronavirus outbreak that has hit the European country particularly hard .
Officials said the new coronavirus has infected more than 3,000 people and killed at least 107 in the country as of Tuesday .
As a result , all schools , universities , and day cares will be shut starting Thursday and will remain closed until at least March 15 .
“ It is a prudent decision to contain the virus because we have a health-care system at risk of being overloaded @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in a statement Wednesday .
Italy had already imposed similar measures in February in the northern part of the country — the epicenter of the country ’ s outbreak — and cities like Milan and Venice are basically under lockdown because of travel restrictions .
This new directive expands the school closures nationwide and affects about 8.7 million students , according to Bloomberg .
The Italian government has also banned fans from attending sporting events and some fashion shows .
Italy is the first country in Europe to take such sweeping measures , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in the most heavily affected areas of that country , the Guardian reports .
But many places in East Asia have already taken similar steps : Japan has closed schools for roughly a month , until early April ; Hong Kong schools have been shut for weeks and won ’ t reopen until late April .
China , too , has shuttered schools and deployed an online learning curriculum instead .
So far , children don ’ t seem to be particularly vulnerable to the coronavirus , at least relative to other demographics @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Disease Control and Prevention ( CDC ) , “ There is no evidence that children are more susceptible .
In fact , most confirmed cases of COVID-19 reported from China have occurred in adults.
” ( Covid-19 is the formal name for the disease caused by the novel coronavirus . )
But Covid-19 risk increases with age or with underlying medical conditions , according to the World Health Organization ( WHO ) , with those 80 or older with the highest mortality rates , according to the available data from the WHO .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ large elderly population , which makes the country particularly vulnerable .
“ Italy is a country of old people , ” Massimo Galli , the director of infectious diseases at Sacco hospital in Milan , told the Guardian .
“ The elderly with previous pathologies are notoriously numerous here .
I think this could explain why we are seeing more serious cases of coronavirus here , which I repeat , in the vast majority of cases start mildly and cause few problems , especially in young people and certainly in children.
” But @ @ @ @ @ @ @ don ’ t know about the virus and how it spreads , so governments like Italy ’ s are taking proactive and vigorous measures to slow the spread and rate of infections .
And , public health officials believe that limiting access to places where a lot of people gather — like schools and other public events — is an effective tool .
“ Children could amplify the epidemic and carry the disease to their grandparents .
Paradoxically , school closures help protect the elderly , ” Giovanni Rezza , who leads the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Health Institute , told the Wall Street Journal .
“ We need to avoid a big wave of cases.
” The question with all these school closings is what the ripple effects will be , particularly for parents who work , and what that might do to the economy if the workforce is upended .
“ It ’ s right to close schools , but that has a cost , ” Cristina Tagliabue , a mother of a 2-year-old and communications entrepreneur from Milan , told the New York Times .
“ The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ — we are also in quarantine .
”

Italy is shutting down its schools for two weeks, as the government works to contain the novel coronavirus outbreak that has hit the European country particularly hard.
Officials said the new coronavirus has infected more than 3,000 people and killed at least 107 in the country as of Tuesday. As a result, all schools, universities, and day cares will be shut starting Thursday and will remain closed until at least March 15.
“It is a prudent decision to contain the virus because we have a health-care system at risk of being overloaded,” Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte said in a statement Wednesday.
Italy had already imposed similar measures in February in the northern part of the country — the epicenter of the country’s outbreak — and cities like Milan and Venice are basically under lockdown because of travel restrictions. This new directive expands the school closures nationwide and affects about 8.7 million students, according to Bloomberg. The Italian government has also banned fans from attending sporting events and some fashion shows.
Italy is the first country in Europe to take such sweeping measures, though France has closed around 120 schools in the most heavily affected areas of that country, the Guardian reports.
But many places in East Asia have already taken similar steps: Japan has closed schools for roughly a month, until early April; Hong Kong schools have been shut for weeks and won’t reopen until late April. China, too, has shuttered schools and deployed an online learning curriculum instead.
So far, children don’t seem to be particularly vulnerable to the coronavirus, at least relative to other demographics. According to the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), “There is no evidence that children are more susceptible. In fact, most confirmed cases of COVID-19 reported from China have occurred in adults.” (Covid-19 is the formal name for the disease caused by the novel coronavirus.)
But Covid-19 risk increases with age or with underlying medical conditions, according to the World Health Organization (WHO), with those 80 or older with the highest mortality rates, according to the available data from the WHO. Italy, in particular, has a large elderly population, which makes the country particularly vulnerable.
“Italy is a country of old people,” Massimo Galli, the director of infectious diseases at Sacco hospital in Milan, told the Guardian. “The elderly with previous pathologies are notoriously numerous here. I think this could explain why we are seeing more serious cases of coronavirus here, which I repeat, in the vast majority of cases start mildly and cause few problems, especially in young people and certainly in children.”
But there’s still a lot scientists don’t know about the virus and how it spreads, so governments like Italy’s are taking proactive and vigorous measures to slow the spread and rate of infections. And, public health officials believe that limiting access to places where a lot of people gather — like schools and other public events — is an effective tool.
“Children could amplify the epidemic and carry the disease to their grandparents. Paradoxically, school closures help protect the elderly,” Giovanni Rezza, who leads the infectious-disease department at Italy’s National Health Institute, told the Wall Street Journal. “We need to avoid a big wave of cases.”
The question with all these school closings is what the ripple effects will be, particularly for parents who work, and what that might do to the economy if the workforce is upended. “It’s right to close schools, but that has a cost,” Cristina Tagliabue, a mother of a 2-year-old and communications entrepreneur from Milan, told the New York Times. “The government could have done something for mothers — we are also in quarantine.”


vox--2020-03-04--The Democratic Party’s risky bet on Biden

After Joe Biden ’ s big Super Tuesday wins , it ’ s obvious that he ’ s the Democratic frontrunner .
And all of a sudden , Republicans are talking about Hunter Biden and Ukraine again — with Senate Homeland Security Chair Ron Johnson ( R-WI ) telling reporters on Wednesday that he plans to issue some kind of report on the matter in the coming months .
“ These are questions that Joe Biden has not adequately answered , ” Johnson said , per Politico .
“ And if I were a Democrat primary voter , I ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ I cast my final vote.
” The Democratic elite has unified around Biden largely on the grounds of electability , that he ’ s more likely than chief rival Bernie Sanders to beat Trump in the general election .
But Johnson ’ s comments underscore that Biden might not be nearly as safe on that front as either Democratic officials or voters think .
They ’ re risking setting themselves up for a fall campaign mired in scandal and innuendo — a 2020 version of “ Her Emails ” that plays right into @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ” narrative .
The Ukraine situation centered on the younger Biden ’ s position on the board of Burisma , a Ukrainian energy company .
While Hunter was on the board , Biden was vice president — and was attempting to pressure Ukraine ’ s government to fire a prosecutor general , Viktor Shokin , who was widely seen as impeding anti-corruption efforts .
Trump has tried to spin these two events into some kind of scandal in which the elder Biden was working to protect the company that employed his son from @ @ @ @ @ @ @ allegation is obviously false and deeply ironic , given that the president himself got impeached for improperly pressuring the Ukrainian government to investigate Biden over this issue .
But the mere fact that there ’ s no actual scandal here doesn ’ t mean the perception of one won ’ t hurt Biden .
One of Trump ’ s chief political talents is attracting extraordinary amounts of credulous media attention to his bizarre theories , in ways that end up creating a stench of corruption around his opponents .
One of Biden ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is restoring dignity and honor to the White House , an argument that could be undermined in the public ’ s eye by even the whiff of scandal .
Hillary ’ s emails were a fake problem too — right up until they torpedoed 2016 ’ s “ safer than Bernie ” choice .
Sanders certainly has electability problems , most notably turning off moderates who might be willing to vote for a less extreme not-Trump .
But it ’ s just not obvious that Biden is the clearly safer choice , especially @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
He may not be uniquely risky compared to the rest of the field , but it ’ s also not clear that he ’ s as electable as most Democrats seem to think he is .
The party needs to grapple with this openly before concluding that he ’ s their only option .
What really happened with the Bidens and Ukraine The Hunter Biden situation involves a lot of names from mid-2010s Ukrainian politics that you , dear reader , may be forgiven for not remembering .
Luckily , my colleague @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to it .
Here ’ s the key background : Back in 2014 after a change of regime in Ukraine , Hunter Biden joined the board of a scandal-plagued Ukrainian natural gas company named Burisma .
Hunter had no apparent qualifications for the job except that his father was the vice president and involved in the Obama administration ’ s Ukraine policy .
He got paid up to $ 50,000 per month for the job and the situation constituted the kind of conflict of interest that was normally considered inappropriate in Washington until @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of course , the president of the United States regularly accepts payments from foreign sources to his company while in office , and so do the Trump children .
The Obama administration probably should have done something about this at the time , but the White House couldn ’ t literally force Hunter not to accept the job .
And given the larger family context , you can see why Joe might have been reluctant to confront his son about it .
This would all be a small footnote in history except that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ administration and in Western Europe had come to a consensus that Ukraine ’ s prosecutor general , Viktor Shokin , wasn ’ t doing enough to crack down on corruption .
Biden , as he later colorfully recounted , delivered the message that the West wanted Shokin gone or else loan guarantees would be held up , and Shokin was , in turn , fired .
There was nothing remotely controversial about this at the time .
No congressional Republicans complained about it , and the European Union hailed the decision to fire @ @ @ @ @ @ @ footage of Biden touting his personal role in this is it was considered a foreign policy triumph that Biden wanted to claim credit for , not anything sordid or embarrassing .
But Shokin , of course , didn ’ t want to go down on the theory that he was corrupt or incompetent .
So he started offering another theory : he was fired for going after Burisma by Joe Biden operating on behalf of Hunter Biden .
There are two conclusions to draw from this set of facts .
First , Hunter @ @ @ @ @ @ @ he was Joe Biden ’ s son .
This is both a troubling statement about the elite-driven corruption of capitalism and meritocracy as well as a window into Biden ’ s political liabilities .
Trump ’ s self-dealing and nepotism are obvious weak points , but he can parry Biden ’ s attacks on that front by citing Hunter .
Second , Joe Biden ’ s conduct toward Shokin had nothing to do with his son — and everyone at the time knew it .
The only person saying otherwise was Shokin , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ lying to preserve his own reputation .
Trump ’ s allegation of wrongdoing by Biden is merely a warmed-over version of Shokin ’ s self-interested complaint .
It ’ s obviously , risibly false .
But electorally speaking , it ’ s far from clear how much that matters .
The case for worrying about Biden ’ s electability Trump ’ s various claims about Clinton ’ s use of a private mail server were absurd .
Yet that didn ’ t stop mainstream media from obsessing over them .
Part of the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ both sides ” of a story among mainstream media reporters .
Another is the inherent limitations of cable news and traditional news article , which are ill-suited for conveying complex realities .
Some reporters have even , at times , seem genuinely convinced that there ’ s some scandal in Biden ’ s behavior .
For all these reasons , it ’ s entirely likely that Trump ’ s conspiracy theories will get at least some of the same credulous coverage they got last time around .
The post-impeachment polling on this @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are vulnerable on this issue .
A mid-February Politico-Morning Consult poll found that 30 percent of independent voters were “ less likely ” to support Biden as a result of the controversy , while only 5 percent were “ more likely ” ( 41 percent said it made no difference ) .
Twelve percent of Democrats said that it made them less likely to support the former Vice President as well .
Make no mistake : Trump , Republicans , and the Fox News-Rush Limbaugh cinematic universe are salivating at the prospect of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and Washington corruption for the next few months .
In between the end of Trump ’ s impeachment in early February and the South Carolina primary at the end of the month , we heard virtually nothing about Ukraine or Burisma .
Yet on Monday , when it became clear that Biden ’ s surge was real , Sen. Johnson announced that he wants to subpoena Hunter Biden to testify about Burisma .
As with his Wednesday comments about a report on Burisma , the timing couldn ’ t be more transparent .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ the executive branch either , to put it mildly .
Trump has already attempted to pressure Ukraine to open an investigation into Biden , even going so far as to potentially violate the law by holding up military aid to Kyiv .
In the midst of this scandal , he openly called on China to investigate Hunter Biden ’ s business dealings in that country .
He has an attorney general in Bill Barr who is demonstrably willing to bend the Justice Department to his will .
There are all sorts of different @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , an entire media infrastructure beholden to him — that Trump can go in an effort to make Biden look shady .
And it seems , judging from some of his recent behavior , that the impeachment acquittal has convinced Trump that he ’ s untouchable .
The fact that Joe Biden himself didn ’ t do anything wrong is , unfortunately for him , somewhat immaterial .
What matters is creating a cloud of scandal and corruption around the Democratic nominee .
That was enough to do serious damage to Clinton ; @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Biden .
To be sure , it ’ s not foreordained that such a faux scandal would sink his campaign .
Clinton did have more baggage coming into the 2016 election than Biden does heading into 2020 .
Trump ’ s baseless accusations might be less effective the second time around .
It ’ s also fair to note that if Sanders were the nominee , the Republicans would also find something to tar him with .
His wife Jane has legal problems surrounding her time as president of a small Vermont college @ @ @ @ @ @ @ has already started probing .
But Jane Sanders was not a key figure in a national debate over impeachment , and so attacks on her may not resonate as much .
Besides , Biden is explicitly running as the person who ’ ll restore dignity to the White House in a way Sanders isn ’ t — a message that is more vulnerable to the relentless drumbeat of Hunter Biden “ bombshells ” from Fox News and partisan Republican investigators on the Hill and credulous coverage from the mainstream press .
Choosing Biden @ @ @ @ @ @ @ play out as poorly as it could — on a particular theory , in other words , of how the public will react to the inevitable Republican deluge of Hunter Biden smears .
It ’ s not obvious that we should have more certainty about the Biden theory of electorate than the Sanders one — that voters will be deaf to Republican efforts to paint him as an authoritarian communist .
If they do settle on Biden , Democrats may well go into the November election much like they did in the 2016 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ candidate hobbled by accusations of corruption .
The worry is that Democrats haven ’ t thought through this possibility as they make their decision in the primary — that their safe choice to run against Trump might not be as safe as they think he is .

After Joe Biden’s big Super Tuesday wins, it’s obvious that he’s the Democratic frontrunner. And all of a sudden, Republicans are talking about Hunter Biden and Ukraine again — with Senate Homeland Security Chair Ron Johnson (R-WI) telling reporters on Wednesday that he plans to issue some kind of report on the matter in the coming months.
“These are questions that Joe Biden has not adequately answered,” Johnson said, per Politico. “And if I were a Democrat primary voter, I’d want these questions satisfactorily answered before I cast my final vote.”
The Democratic elite has unified around Biden largely on the grounds of electability, that he’s more likely than chief rival Bernie Sanders to beat Trump in the general election. But Johnson’s comments underscore that Biden might not be nearly as safe on that front as either Democratic officials or voters think. They’re risking setting themselves up for a fall campaign mired in scandal and innuendo — a 2020 version of “Her Emails” that plays right into Trump’s “drain the swamp” narrative.
The Ukraine situation centered on the younger Biden’s position on the board of Burisma, a Ukrainian energy company. While Hunter was on the board, Biden was vice president — and was attempting to pressure Ukraine’s government to fire a prosecutor general, Viktor Shokin, who was widely seen as impeding anti-corruption efforts. Trump has tried to spin these two events into some kind of scandal in which the elder Biden was working to protect the company that employed his son from a crusading prosecutor.
Trump’s allegation is obviously false and deeply ironic, given that the president himself got impeached for improperly pressuring the Ukrainian government to investigate Biden over this issue. But the mere fact that there’s no actual scandal here doesn’t mean the perception of one won’t hurt Biden.
Related 4 winners and 3 losers on Super Tuesday
One of Trump’s chief political talents is attracting extraordinary amounts of credulous media attention to his bizarre theories, in ways that end up creating a stench of corruption around his opponents. One of Biden’s central rationales for running against Trump is restoring dignity and honor to the White House, an argument that could be undermined in the public’s eye by even the whiff of scandal. Hillary’s emails were a fake problem too — right up until they torpedoed 2016’s “safer than Bernie” choice.
Sanders certainly has electability problems, most notably turning off moderates who might be willing to vote for a less extreme not-Trump. But it’s just not obvious that Biden is the clearly safer choice, especially given what we saw four years ago. He may not be uniquely risky compared to the rest of the field, but it’s also not clear that he’s as electable as most Democrats seem to think he is.
The party needs to grapple with this openly before concluding that he’s their only option.
What really happened with the Bidens and Ukraine
The Hunter Biden situation involves a lot of names from mid-2010s Ukrainian politics that you, dear reader, may be forgiven for not remembering. Luckily, my colleague Matt Yglesias has a very helpful guide to it. Here’s the key background:
Back in 2014 after a change of regime in Ukraine, Hunter Biden joined the board of a scandal-plagued Ukrainian natural gas company named Burisma. Hunter had no apparent qualifications for the job except that his father was the vice president and involved in the Obama administration’s Ukraine policy. He got paid up to $50,000 per month for the job and the situation constituted the kind of conflict of interest that was normally considered inappropriate in Washington until the Trump era. These days, of course, the president of the United States regularly accepts payments from foreign sources to his company while in office, and so do the Trump children. The Obama administration probably should have done something about this at the time, but the White House couldn’t literally force Hunter not to accept the job. And given the larger family context, you can see why Joe might have been reluctant to confront his son about it. This would all be a small footnote in history except that by 2016, officials throughout the Obama administration and in Western Europe had come to a consensus that Ukraine’s prosecutor general, Viktor Shokin, wasn’t doing enough to crack down on corruption. Biden, as he later colorfully recounted, delivered the message that the West wanted Shokin gone or else loan guarantees would be held up, and Shokin was, in turn, fired. There was nothing remotely controversial about this at the time. No congressional Republicans complained about it, and the European Union hailed the decision to fire Shokin. The reason there is video footage of Biden touting his personal role in this is it was considered a foreign policy triumph that Biden wanted to claim credit for, not anything sordid or embarrassing. But Shokin, of course, didn’t want to go down on the theory that he was corrupt or incompetent. So he started offering another theory: he was fired for going after Burisma by Joe Biden operating on behalf of Hunter Biden.
There are two conclusions to draw from this set of facts.
First, Hunter Biden got his job with Burisma because he was Joe Biden’s son. This is both a troubling statement about the elite-driven corruption of capitalism and meritocracy as well as a window into Biden’s political liabilities. Trump’s self-dealing and nepotism are obvious weak points, but he can parry Biden’s attacks on that front by citing Hunter.
Second, Joe Biden’s conduct toward Shokin had nothing to do with his son — and everyone at the time knew it. The only person saying otherwise was Shokin, who seems to quite obviously have been lying to preserve his own reputation.
Trump’s allegation of wrongdoing by Biden is merely a warmed-over version of Shokin’s self-interested complaint. It’s obviously, risibly false.
But electorally speaking, it’s far from clear how much that matters.
The case for worrying about Biden’s electability
Trump’s various claims about Clinton’s use of a private mail server were absurd. Yet that didn’t stop mainstream media from obsessing over them.
Part of the problem is the entrenched commitment to portraying “both sides” of a story among mainstream media reporters. Another is the inherent limitations of cable news and traditional news article, which are ill-suited for conveying complex realities. Some reporters have even, at times, seem genuinely convinced that there’s some scandal in Biden’s behavior.
For all these reasons, it’s entirely likely that Trump’s conspiracy theories will get at least some of the same credulous coverage they got last time around.
The post-impeachment polling on this issue suggests that segments of the public are vulnerable on this issue. A mid-February Politico-Morning Consult poll found that 30 percent of independent voters were “less likely” to support Biden as a result of the controversy, while only 5 percent were “more likely” (41 percent said it made no difference). Twelve percent of Democrats said that it made them less likely to support the former Vice President as well.
Make no mistake: Trump, Republicans, and the Fox News-Rush Limbaugh cinematic universe are salivating at the prospect of talking about Hunter Biden, Ukraine, and Washington corruption for the next few months.
In between the end of Trump’s impeachment in early February and the South Carolina primary at the end of the month, we heard virtually nothing about Ukraine or Burisma. Yet on Monday, when it became clear that Biden’s surge was real, Sen. Johnson announced that he wants to subpoena Hunter Biden to testify about Burisma. As with his Wednesday comments about a report on Burisma, the timing couldn’t be more transparent.
You can’t expect impartiality from the executive branch either, to put it mildly.
Trump has already attempted to pressure Ukraine to open an investigation into Biden, even going so far as to potentially violate the law by holding up military aid to Kyiv. In the midst of this scandal, he openly called on China to investigate Hunter Biden’s business dealings in that country. He has an attorney general in Bill Barr who is demonstrably willing to bend the Justice Department to his will.
There are all sorts of different ways — policy levers foreign and domestic, an entire media infrastructure beholden to him — that Trump can go in an effort to make Biden look shady. And it seems, judging from some of his recent behavior, that the impeachment acquittal has convinced Trump that he’s untouchable.
The fact that Joe Biden himself didn’t do anything wrong is, unfortunately for him, somewhat immaterial. What matters is creating a cloud of scandal and corruption around the Democratic nominee. That was enough to do serious damage to Clinton; it could potentially do the same to Biden.
To be sure, it’s not foreordained that such a faux scandal would sink his campaign. Clinton did have more baggage coming into the 2016 election than Biden does heading into 2020. Trump’s baseless accusations might be less effective the second time around.
It’s also fair to note that if Sanders were the nominee, the Republicans would also find something to tar him with. His wife Jane has legal problems surrounding her time as president of a small Vermont college, for example, that Republican-aligned media has already started probing.
But Jane Sanders was not a key figure in a national debate over impeachment, and so attacks on her may not resonate as much. Besides, Biden is explicitly running as the person who’ll restore dignity to the White House in a way Sanders isn’t — a message that is more vulnerable to the relentless drumbeat of Hunter Biden “bombshells” from Fox News and partisan Republican investigators on the Hill and credulous coverage from the mainstream press.
Choosing Biden means betting that this won’t play out as poorly as it could — on a particular theory, in other words, of how the public will react to the inevitable Republican deluge of Hunter Biden smears. It’s not obvious that we should have more certainty about the Biden theory of electorate than the Sanders one — that voters will be deaf to Republican efforts to paint him as an authoritarian communist.
If they do settle on Biden, Democrats may well go into the November election much like they did in the 2016 election: with an increasingly unpopular Democratic candidate hobbled by accusations of corruption. The worry is that Democrats haven’t thought through this possibility as they make their decision in the primary — that their safe choice to run against Trump might not be as safe as they think he is.


vox--2020-03-04--Latino voters might have saved Bernie Sanders’s campaign

Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders spent months courting Latino voters , hoping to create a wave of support that would carry him to the Democratic nomination .
On Super Tuesday , their votes helped insulate him from former Vice President Joe Biden ’ s sudden surge .
Latinos make up about a third of the electorate in Texas and California , the two states that allotted the most delegates on Wednesday night .
In both states , his efforts to reach out to Latinos paid off .
Washington Post exit polls show that Sanders carried the Latino vote overwhelmingly : he @ @ @ @ @ @ @ California , where votes are still being counted but Sanders leading by an almost 10-point margin , and 39 percent in Texas , where he lost narrowly to Biden .
By comparison , Biden won 19 percent of Latino voters in California and 26 percent in Texas .
That support wasn ’ t enough to secure Sanders big victories in both states .
But because the Democratic Party decides on its nominee by allocating delegates , it was still crucial .
States aren ’ t winner-take-all , so it ’ s possible to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ if you lose a state .
Latino support saved Sanders from bigger delegate losses to Biden , Matt Barreto , a professor at UCLA and co-founder of the research firm Latino Decisions , said .
“ Without Latino voters , Sanders would have really had a terrible night , ” Barreto said .
“ Biden had a good night already , but Sanders was able to hold his own with a really big win in California and breaking even in Texas .
All of that strength for him was Latinos and young voters @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Sanders lost to Hillary Clinton in 10 of 11 states where Latinos made up a large share of eligible voters .
This time , he ’ s made a stronger push .
Sanders has been trying to appeal to Latino voters with a progressive policy platform on immigration , but that isn ’ t the only issue that motivates them .
He has also been speaking to their core interests , including health care and jobs .
Starting last summer , he has poured resources in spreading his message , in both Spanish @ @ @ @ @ @ @ And he ’ s hired Latino staff from the grassroots advocacy community and integrated them into every facet of his campaign .
It wasn ’ t enough to carry him to a sweeping victory on Tuesday .
But depending on how the delegate counts shake out in California and Texas , it could have kept his campaign alive .
Just four years ago , Sanders was consistently bested by Clinton among Latinos .
Now , young Latinos know him as “ Tío Bernie , ” Spanish for “ Uncle Bernie ” — including @ @ @ @ @ @ @ I call him Tío Bernie .
Maybe to my goddaughter he ’ s abuelo , but he ’ s my Tío Bernie Sanders , ” she told the crowd at a rally in Queens in October when she announced she was endorsing him for the Democratic nomination .
Sanders has leaned into the moniker .
His campaign has since organized soccer matches and house parties that it calls “ Tamales for Tío Bernie.
” He has been investing in this kind of outreach at the local level long before other campaigns showed up @ @ @ @ @ @ @ inspiring greater turnout among Latino voters , which Barreto said was higher on Super Tuesday than it was in 2016 .
“ You can be the perfect messenger and have the perfect message that Latinos care about , but if you never spend the money to go tell the Latinos out there , it doesn ’ t matter what your positions are , ” Chuck Rocha , a senior adviser to Sanders ’ s campaign who also worked on his 2016 run , said .
In California alone , Sanders spoke personally to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ campaign knocked on more than a million doors and made more than 5 million calls , Anna Bahr , a Sanders spokesperson , told Vox .
Monterroso said that he has seen enthusiasm for Sanders among young Latino voters in California , in particular .
Indeed , as my colleague Katelyn Burns writes , Washington Post exit poll data shows that he carried 57 percent of voters between the ages of 18 and 29 , and 52 percent of those aged 30 to 44 .
“ We ’ ve put in a lot @ @ @ @ @ @ @ put in our offices in predominantly Latino communities , and we ’ ve been on the ground for the better part of a year , ” Bahr said .
“ I think that there is a resonance — the way that the senator organizes , the very nature of the grassroots campaign — all of that resonates with the political history and legacy of Latinos in California.
” And in Texas , Sanders set up offices and had people on the ground in heavily Latino border districts that have long been neglected by @ @ @ @ @ @ @ due to historically low rates of voter engagement .
He was visible in those places , and that fostered a sense of inclusion that played in his favor on Tuesday night .
He consequently won in high-density Latino districts , including El Paso , San Antonio , and across the Rio Grande Valley : He has hired Latino staff , who number more than 200 nationwide .
The campaign set out to hire people from nonprofits and social justice movements in particular and , at the state level , hired primarily from within @ @ @ @ @ @ @ conducted through a “ lens of cultural competency , ” Rocha said .
Latinos or people of color hold senior positions across every department , from national political director Analilia Mejia to national deputy director of states Neidi Dominguez .
“ We wanted to break the status quo of the wrong way we think campaigns have been run forever where Latinos had been used as window dressing , given no authority , and being siloed off in departments where they only talk to each other and not the rest of the campaign , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s no Latino outreach department .
It ’ s literally integrated in every part of the campaign.
” Sanders ’ s Latino support is grounded in policies that appeal to Latino voters : immigration , health care , and the economy .
His immigration plan , which he has framed in the context of his signature issue of worker solidarity , is arguably the most progressive of the Democratic field .
Sanders ’ s plan acknowledges that unauthorized immigrants are particularly vulnerable to abuse at the hands of employers because they might fear @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of deportation .
He consequently suggests redirecting funding from enforcing immigration laws against workers to holding their employers accountable for labor law violations .
( The plan does not mention whether that will include preventing employers from hiring unauthorized workers in the first place . )
He suggests offering immigrant workers whistleblower protections if they speak up about workplace abuses and improving labor standards for farmworkers , domestic workers , gig economy workers , and those employed in other underregulated industries .
He would also allow them to participate in Medicare-for-all and College @ @ @ @ @ @ @ public colleges and universities tuition- and debt-free .
To communicate that plan to voters , he has made the issue personal , speaking at rallies about his father , a Polish immigrant who came to the US as a teenager impoverished and unable to speak English .
“ As the son of an immigrant ...
I will not tolerate the continued demonization of the undocumented in this country , ” Sanders said in Reno , Nevada , last month .
It ’ s earned him endorsements from the prominent immigrant rights group Make @ @ @ @ @ @ @ group Mijente .
Daniel Altschuler , managing director of Make the Road Action , said that the organization has been impressed by Sanders ’ s willingness to listen and learn from the grassroots advocacy community in putting together an immigration platform that reflects their priorities , including placing a moratorium on deportations and dismantling the immigration enforcement agencies .
That plan also likely helped him in border districts in Texas and California that know the issues associated with immigration intimately and who want to see the next president prioritize immigration reform , Ben @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Latinx , a Latino voter mobilization group , said .
“ Sanders is being viewed as someone who can finally find a solution to the immigration issue , ” he said .
But while immigration ranks high in terms of importance to Latinos , it historically hasn ’ t been their top priority overall , ranking behind health care and the economy .
That ’ s held true this election cycle : Only 11 percent of Latino voters said that protecting immigrant rights is the most important issue facing the community , according @ @ @ @ @ @ @ And according to a 2018 Pew Research study , the majority of US-born Latinos say they aren ’ t concerned that a close family member could be deported .
That might be because only about a third of Latinos in the US are immigrants , a share that has steadily declined since 2010 .
Latinos who are voting are , by definition , citizens , meaning that they don ’ t necessarily have a personal stake in US immigration policy .
The Univision poll also reported that a quarter of Latinos nationwide see @ @ @ @ @ @ @ important issue facing their community , and 83 percent support Medicare-for-all , one of the cornerstones of Sanders ’ s platform .
It ’ s no surprise that health care is top of mind for Latinos : Only about half of them are covered through private health insurance policies , the lowest of any census group , and 20 percent of Latinos under the age of 65 are uninsured .
Creating more jobs and improving incomes were the top priorities for 19 and 12 percent of Latinos , respectively , in that same @ @ @ @ @ @ @ raise the minimum wage to $ 15 and would offer college debt forgiveness and tuition-free public university , which could be important for first- and second-generation immigrants in the Latino community who haven ’ t yet been able to accumulate wealth .
It ’ s these kinds of bread-and-butter issues that Sanders has invoked to inspire Latino turnout .
“ Bernie will bring people of all backgrounds together around a progressive agenda that guarantees fundamental economic and civil rights to all , including universal health care , a good job with a living @ @ @ @ @ @ @ environment , and a secure retirement , ” Belén Sisa , a spokesperson for the Sanders campaign , said .
Latinos of different national origins , however , might view him differently .
For example , some Latinos might be alienated by Sanders ’ s identity as a democratic socialist .
Sergio Garcia-Rios , a professor at Cornell University who studies Latino political participation , said that Latino immigrants from Cuba , Venezuela , and Nicaragua who remember what it is like to live in a socialist country might be wary of endorsing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ideology .
But Sanders is nevertheless polling well among Cubans — his favorability rating among Cubans is 47 percent favorable to 42 percent unfavorable , according to the recent Univision poll .
By comparison , 67 percent of Mexicans rated Sanders favorably .
As Sanders looks ahead to the primaries in Florida , where there is a large Cuban and Venezuelan population , his support among Latinos will again be put to the test .

Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders spent months courting Latino voters, hoping to create a wave of support that would carry him to the Democratic nomination.
On Super Tuesday, their votes helped insulate him from former Vice President Joe Biden’s sudden surge.
Latinos make up about a third of the electorate in Texas and California, the two states that allotted the most delegates on Wednesday night. In both states, his efforts to reach out to Latinos paid off.
Washington Post exit polls show that Sanders carried the Latino vote overwhelmingly: he had 49 percent of Latino support in California, where votes are still being counted but Sanders leading by an almost 10-point margin, and 39 percent in Texas, where he lost narrowly to Biden. By comparison, Biden won 19 percent of Latino voters in California and 26 percent in Texas.
That support wasn’t enough to secure Sanders big victories in both states. But because the Democratic Party decides on its nominee by allocating delegates, it was still crucial. States aren’t winner-take-all, so it’s possible to rack up a lot of delegates even if you lose a state.
Latino support saved Sanders from bigger delegate losses to Biden, Matt Barreto, a professor at UCLA and co-founder of the research firm Latino Decisions, said.
“Without Latino voters, Sanders would have really had a terrible night,” Barreto said. “Biden had a good night already, but Sanders was able to hold his own with a really big win in California and breaking even in Texas. All of that strength for him was Latinos and young voters who came out.”
In 2016, Sanders lost to Hillary Clinton in 10 of 11 states where Latinos made up a large share of eligible voters. This time, he’s made a stronger push.
Sanders has been trying to appeal to Latino voters with a progressive policy platform on immigration, but that isn’t the only issue that motivates them. He has also been speaking to their core interests, including health care and jobs. Starting last summer, he has poured resources in spreading his message, in both Spanish and English, to Latino communities. And he’s hired Latino staff from the grassroots advocacy community and integrated them into every facet of his campaign.
It wasn’t enough to carry him to a sweeping victory on Tuesday. But depending on how the delegate counts shake out in California and Texas, it could have kept his campaign alive.
Sanders’s Latino outreach strategy, explained
Just four years ago, Sanders was consistently bested by Clinton among Latinos. Now, young Latinos know him as “Tío Bernie,” Spanish for “Uncle Bernie” — including New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.
“I call him Tío Bernie. Maybe to my goddaughter he’s abuelo, but he’s my Tío Bernie Sanders,” she told the crowd at a rally in Queens in October when she announced she was endorsing him for the Democratic nomination.
Sanders has leaned into the moniker. His campaign has since organized soccer matches and house parties that it calls “Tamales for Tío Bernie.” He has been investing in this kind of outreach at the local level long before other campaigns showed up.
That has likely aided Sanders in inspiring greater turnout among Latino voters, which Barreto said was higher on Super Tuesday than it was in 2016.
“You can be the perfect messenger and have the perfect message that Latinos care about, but if you never spend the money to go tell the Latinos out there, it doesn’t matter what your positions are,” Chuck Rocha, a senior adviser to Sanders’s campaign who also worked on his 2016 run, said.
In California alone, Sanders spoke personally to upward of 110,000 people, and his campaign knocked on more than a million doors and made more than 5 million calls, Anna Bahr, a Sanders spokesperson, told Vox.
Monterroso said that he has seen enthusiasm for Sanders among young Latino voters in California, in particular. Indeed, as my colleague Katelyn Burns writes, Washington Post exit poll data shows that he carried 57 percent of voters between the ages of 18 and 29, and 52 percent of those aged 30 to 44.
“We’ve put in a lot of time and energy — we have put in our offices in predominantly Latino communities, and we’ve been on the ground for the better part of a year,” Bahr said. “I think that there is a resonance — the way that the senator organizes, the very nature of the grassroots campaign — all of that resonates with the political history and legacy of Latinos in California.”
And in Texas, Sanders set up offices and had people on the ground in heavily Latino border districts that have long been neglected by politicians at the state and national level due to historically low rates of voter engagement. He was visible in those places, and that fostered a sense of inclusion that played in his favor on Tuesday night.
He consequently won in high-density Latino districts, including El Paso, San Antonio, and across the Rio Grande Valley:
New #SuperMartes analysis out of @UCLALatino shows Sanders greatest showing in Texas came from super-majority Latino geographies including El Paso, San Antonio, and almost the entire Rio Grande Valley. We'll be posting more detailed data all day long so check back in pic.twitter.com/AOKU1nNdB8 — UCLA LPPI (@UCLAlatino) March 4, 2020
He has hired Latino staff, who number more than 200 nationwide. The campaign set out to hire people from nonprofits and social justice movements in particular and, at the state level, hired primarily from within the state to ensure that outreach was conducted through a “lens of cultural competency,” Rocha said. Latinos or people of color hold senior positions across every department, from national political director Analilia Mejia to national deputy director of states Neidi Dominguez.
“We wanted to break the status quo of the wrong way we think campaigns have been run forever where Latinos had been used as window dressing, given no authority, and being siloed off in departments where they only talk to each other and not the rest of the campaign,” Rocha said. “There’s no Latino outreach department. It’s literally integrated in every part of the campaign.”
Why Sanders appeals to Latinos
Sanders’s Latino support is grounded in policies that appeal to Latino voters: immigration, health care, and the economy. His immigration plan, which he has framed in the context of his signature issue of worker solidarity, is arguably the most progressive of the Democratic field.
Sanders’s plan acknowledges that unauthorized immigrants are particularly vulnerable to abuse at the hands of employers because they might fear retaliation that could put them at risk of deportation. He consequently suggests redirecting funding from enforcing immigration laws against workers to holding their employers accountable for labor law violations. (The plan does not mention whether that will include preventing employers from hiring unauthorized workers in the first place.)
He suggests offering immigrant workers whistleblower protections if they speak up about workplace abuses and improving labor standards for farmworkers, domestic workers, gig economy workers, and those employed in other underregulated industries. He would also allow them to participate in Medicare-for-all and College for All, his bill to make public colleges and universities tuition- and debt-free.
To communicate that plan to voters, he has made the issue personal, speaking at rallies about his father, a Polish immigrant who came to the US as a teenager impoverished and unable to speak English.
“As the son of an immigrant ... I will not tolerate the continued demonization of the undocumented in this country,” Sanders said in Reno, Nevada, last month.
It’s earned him endorsements from the prominent immigrant rights group Make the Road Action and the Latino mobilization group Mijente. Daniel Altschuler, managing director of Make the Road Action, said that the organization has been impressed by Sanders’s willingness to listen and learn from the grassroots advocacy community in putting together an immigration platform that reflects their priorities, including placing a moratorium on deportations and dismantling the immigration enforcement agencies.
That plan also likely helped him in border districts in Texas and California that know the issues associated with immigration intimately and who want to see the next president prioritize immigration reform, Ben Monterroso, a senior adviser to Poder Latinx, a Latino voter mobilization group, said.
“Sanders is being viewed as someone who can finally find a solution to the immigration issue,” he said.
But while immigration ranks high in terms of importance to Latinos, it historically hasn’t been their top priority overall, ranking behind health care and the economy. That’s held true this election cycle: Only 11 percent of Latino voters said that protecting immigrant rights is the most important issue facing the community, according to a February 18 Univision poll. And according to a 2018 Pew Research study, the majority of US-born Latinos say they aren’t concerned that a close family member could be deported.
That might be because only about a third of Latinos in the US are immigrants, a share that has steadily declined since 2010. Latinos who are voting are, by definition, citizens, meaning that they don’t necessarily have a personal stake in US immigration policy.
The Univision poll also reported that a quarter of Latinos nationwide see lowering health care costs was the most important issue facing their community, and 83 percent support Medicare-for-all, one of the cornerstones of Sanders’s platform. It’s no surprise that health care is top of mind for Latinos: Only about half of them are covered through private health insurance policies, the lowest of any census group, and 20 percent of Latinos under the age of 65 are uninsured.
Creating more jobs and improving incomes were the top priorities for 19 and 12 percent of Latinos, respectively, in that same Univision poll. Sanders has promised to raise the minimum wage to $15 and would offer college debt forgiveness and tuition-free public university, which could be important for first- and second-generation immigrants in the Latino community who haven’t yet been able to accumulate wealth.
It’s these kinds of bread-and-butter issues that Sanders has invoked to inspire Latino turnout.
“Bernie will bring people of all backgrounds together around a progressive agenda that guarantees fundamental economic and civil rights to all, including universal health care, a good job with a living wage, affordable housing, a healthy environment, and a secure retirement,” Belén Sisa, a spokesperson for the Sanders campaign, said.
Latinos of different national origins, however, might view him differently.
For example, some Latinos might be alienated by Sanders’s identity as a democratic socialist. Sergio Garcia-Rios, a professor at Cornell University who studies Latino political participation, said that Latino immigrants from Cuba, Venezuela, and Nicaragua who remember what it is like to live in a socialist country might be wary of endorsing a candidate who espouses a similar political ideology.
But Sanders is nevertheless polling well among Cubans — his favorability rating among Cubans is 47 percent favorable to 42 percent unfavorable, according to the recent Univision poll. By comparison, 67 percent of Mexicans rated Sanders favorably.
As Sanders looks ahead to the primaries in Florida, where there is a large Cuban and Venezuelan population, his support among Latinos will again be put to the test.


vox--2020-03-04--Coronavirus in the US: Tracking cases and deaths

Since December 31 , when China first reported cases of the novel coronavirus disease to the World Health Organization , it has spread to dozens of countries around the world , including the United States .
Now , there are more than 95,000 confirmed cases of Covid-19 worldwide , with major outbreaks in mainland China , South Korea , Iran , and Italy .
Covid-19 initially arrived in the US in two ways .
First , infected people returned to the US from China , where the virus originated and where the vast majority of cases have been reported .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ someone who had been to China or to another country with Covid-19 .
Since February 28 , new cases of Covid-19 have been reported in the US with no link to travel , which means the disease has been spreading inside the country .
In February , there was little testing done by the US , and many of the original test kits the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention ( CDC ) sent out could not be validated by testing labs .
Another problem was that the testing was focused only on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
On February 28 , the CDC said the problem with the kits was fixed , and it was sending kits to labs around the country along with new , expanded testing criteria .
All state and local public health labs as well as qualified private labs are expected to be able to test by the end of this week , USA Today reports .
Health experts say this means the number of cases will rise in the coming weeks .
It doesn ’ t mean the virus is spreading any faster .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center , said on Twitter that case numbers are rising because there is “ likely a backlog of cases to be detected ” : When including those repatriated from the Diamond Princess cruise ship , there are more than 130 cases that have been reported across the United States .
We ’ ll update this post as more cases are reported and more information becomes available .
Reported cases , reported deaths , and recovered cases ( as of March 4 , 2:43 pm Eastern ) : This @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Hopkins and the CDC .
The numbers reported may vary depending on the source .
These numbers don ’ t include the 45 repatriated cases from the Diamond Princess cruise ship .

Editor’s note: This article is not currently being updated. You can find updates on US case counts, deaths, and testing with our new tracker and the latest case counts on this Johns Hopkins tracker. Or follow Vox’s coverage of the coronavirus outbreak here.
Since December 31, when China first reported cases of the novel coronavirus disease to the World Health Organization, it has spread to dozens of countries around the world, including the United States. As of March 18, there are more than 205,000 confirmed cases of Covid-19 worldwide, with major outbreaks in mainland China, Italy, Spain, Iran, and South Korea.
Including those repatriated from the Diamond Princess cruise ship, more than 6,500 cases have been reported across the United States.
Covid-19 initially arrived in the US in two ways. First, infected people returned to the US from China, where the virus originated and where the vast majority of cases have been reported. Second, people came into contact with someone who had been to China or to another country with Covid-19. Since February 28, new cases of Covid-19 have been reported in the US with no link to travel, which means the disease has been spreading inside the country.
In February, there was little testing done by the US, and many of the original test kits the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) sent out could not be validated by testing labs. Another problem was that the testing was focused only on people who’d been to China.
On February 28, the CDC said the problem with the kits was fixed, and it was sending kits to labs around the country along with new, expanded testing criteria. Testing has still been slow to roll out, however.
Health experts say this means the number of cases will rise in the coming weeks. That doesn’t mean the virus is spreading any faster.
Trevor Bradford, an associate member at the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, tweeted that case numbers are rising because there is “likely a backlog of cases to be detected”:
Because of the lack of national testing that had been going on, there is likely a backlog of cases to be detected. As this backlog gets cleared, case counts are going to rise quickly. But please remember that reported cases aren’t newly acquired infections. 3/4 — Trevor Bedford (@trvrb) March 2, 2020
We’ll update this post as more cases are reported and more information becomes available.
Reported cases, reported deaths, and recovered cases (as of March 18, 11:38 am Eastern):
California:
6519 cases
cases 13 deaths
6 out of 6519 recovered
New York:
1717 cases
cases 16 deaths
Washington state:
1041 cases
55 deaths
1 out of 1041 recovered
New Jersey:
267 cases
3 deaths
Massachusetts:
218 cases
1 out of 218 recovered
Florida:
217 cases
cases 7 deaths
Louisiana
196 cases
4 deaths
Colorado
185 cases
cases 2 deaths
Illinois:
161 cases
1 death
2 out of 161 recovered
Georgia:
147 cases
1 death
Texas:
132 cases
2 deaths
Pennsylvania:
115 cases
Wisconsin:
90 cases
1 out of 90 recovered
Tennessee
78 cases
Connecticut:
68 cases
Oregon:
68 cases
2 deaths
Ohio
67 cases
Virginia
67 cases
2 deaths
Michigan
66 cases
North Carolina
66 cases
Maryland:
60 cases
Minnesota
60 cases
Nevada
56 cases
1 death
Utah
51 cases
South Carolina:
47 cases
1 death
Alabama
39 cases
Maine
32 cases
District of Columbia
31 cases
Indiana
30 cases
2 deaths
Iowa
29 cases
Kentucky
27 cases
1 death
New Hampshire:
26 cases
Nebraska
24 cases
New Mexico
23 cases
Rhode Island:
23 cases
Arkansas
22 case
Mississippi
22 cases
Arizona:
21 cases
1 out of 21 recovered
Oklahoma
19 cases
Kansas
18 cases
1 death
Vermont
17 cases
Delaware
16 case
Missouri
16 cases
Wyoming
15 cases
Hawaii
14 cases
South Dakota
11 cases
1 death
Montana
10 cases
Idaho
9 cases
North Dakota
5 cases
West Virginia
1 case
This data is based on reports from Johns Hopkins and the CDC. The numbers reported may vary depending on the source.
These numbers don’t include the 46 repatriated cases from the Diamond Princess cruise ship.


vox--2020-03-04--Request Pending: Inside the Members-Only World of Online Beer Trading

Since 2004 , Russian River Brewing Company has built a whirring local tourist economy around the yearly release of its famously hoppy triple IPA , Pliny the Younger , available on draft at its Sonoma County brewpubs , then distributed in kegs to a small number of area bars a week later .
Last February , during its 15th annual Pliny release , the beer generated more than $ 4 million in visitor revenue , according to the Sonoma County Economic Development Board .
But this month ’ s 16th annual Pliny release resulted in a whole new secondary economy @ @ @ @ @ @ @ River put the previously draft-only beer in bottles , limiting in-person , to-go sales of Pliny to two per customer and labeling bottles “ not for resale.
” Nice try .
Pliny was soon available FT ( “ for trade ” ) on Facebook trading groups , offered ISO ( “ in search of , ” or in exchange for ) other rare beers , or available for cold hard cash , commanding many times its original $ 10 per 510-milliliter bottle price at the brewery .
Charging $ 155 for a single @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for Pliny , might cause the average beer drinker to spit out their average beer .
But for a passionate community of craft beer aficionados who trade and resell rare beers online , that price was just business as usual .
As the American craft beer industry continues to grow , an online secondary market for rare or hard-to-find beer has taken up in its shadow .
Highly perishable IPAs like Pliny the Younger aren ’ t typically traded due to their short shelf life .
Instead , it ’ s barrel-aged stouts @ @ @ @ @ @ @ lifespans that take more time and effort to produce — that make for good and potentially lucrative trading .
“ The most valuable bottles are ones that are super limited , expensive at retail , and allocated very slimly , ” explains beer blogger and podcaster Alex Kidd : beers like Toppling Goliath ’ s Assassin , Perennial Artisan Ales ’ Maman , and one-offs from breweries like Hill Farmstead , Jester King , and Side Project Brewing .
“ A one-per-person bottle release probably has the best chance of hitting the highest @ @ @ @ @ @ @ bottle up probably has the highest opportunity costs.
” Beers rarely retail for more than $ 30 , but a bottle ’ s secondary value might be in the hundreds or even thousands of dollars .
“ There are a few [ traders ] that make a considerable amount of money , ” says Kidd .
But for the most part , that ’ s not the point : Traders are estimating a beer ’ s dollar value and exchanging beer for similarly valued beer , not cash .
“ They ’ re @ @ @ @ @ @ @ dollars , so they can get another 300 bottle… because there ’ s no beer bucks or a beer-backed security they can swap , ” says Kidd .
“ It looks like they ’ re profiting from these crazy sums , but these are not really super-wealthy people.
” Beer trading became common in the 2010s on sites like Beer Advocate , RateBeer , and Reddit .
Technically , the U.S .
Postal Service bans the shipment of any alcohol , and FedEx and UPS won ’ t knowingly ship booze , either @ @ @ @ @ @ @ brewers like Connor Casey of San Francisco ’ s Cellarmaker Brewing Co. were able to take inspiration from distant breweries , allowing him to sample the once-rare , now-trendy Galaxy hop , for instance .
“ Was I trying it in its best shape [ shipped across the country ] ?
No .
Was I grateful to have tried it ?
Yeah , ” says Casey , who now frequently brews with Galaxy .
Beer traders themselves have gained a somewhat unflattering reputation , according to Kidd .
“ If I ’ m @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , ” he says , “ the usual type of beer-trader guy is a profiteering , libertarian , market sets the value , you can ’ t tell me what to do with my bottle once I have it type of mentality.
” But that ’ s far from everybody .
Kidd says he ’ s sent out more than 2,000 beers in trades .
“ It ’ s the lifeline of the rare stuff I get , ” he says , how his podcast , blog , and beer world-infamous Instagram account @ @ @ @ @ @ @ possible .
But in past years , RateBeer sold a stake to A-B InBev , blowing its credibility with beer geeks , and Beer Advocate banned commentary on trades , frustrating users .
Even Reddit shut down its beer-trading hub , r/beertrade .
Now , most of the action occurs in private , members-only Facebook groups .
Some are general , while many are devoted to a single region or popular brewery .
David Roberts of Washington runs one such group , called Floodland : Seekers After Light .
Its 1,100 members — @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to trades involving the Washington-based Floodland Brewing .
Trade posts follow a standard format : “ FT : Protection Spells or Muscat or Timework Aflame , ” reads one offer , advertising three barrel-aged beers from Floodland .
“ ISO : One fresh Pliny the Younger and one Pliny the Elder.
” Negotiations and peanut-gallery evaluations of the trade and the beers involved ensue in the comments below .
“ We try to keep everything super transparent and out in the open , ” says Roberts ( once a user is accepted to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
After a trade is agreed upon , parties announce it closed and conduct the transaction over private messages or off Facebook .
“ There ’ s not a lot of moderation involved , ” Roberts says .
“ There ’ s rules posted at the top of the page , but it ’ s pretty simple.
” Things could soon get harder .
Last year , Facebook formally banned the sale of alcohol and tobacco between users , shutting down a number of high-profile bourbon-trading groups .
Beer-trading group admins also fear @ @ @ @ @ @ @ so , as several have already been banned .
“ You ’ re seeing a lot more secrecy in these groups now , ” Kidd says .
“ It ’ s exceedingly difficult to get into some of [ them ] ... there ’ s precious few places to go and engage in this subculture at this point.
” Legally suspect “ Beer Razzle ” groups are even more secretive .
Razzles are just raffles , their name likely obscured to escape notice from moderators .
Think Powerball , but for rare beer @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s essentially [ for ] if you can ’ t afford the $ 450 cost of entry on a bottle like Side Project BBT , but you want a shot at trying it.
” A “ razzler ” might pay $ 50 for a chance to win the bottle by picking a ball number : If it ’ s pulled , they ’ ll get the beer .
Razzlers don ’ t actually conduct the raffle themselves ; they just tie their razzle to a real lottery , such as the actual Powerball @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Chicago beer group on Facebook called “ Candy Enthusiasts ” suggests selling slots tied to the Illinois Pick 3 lottery .
Its profile picture is of the candy Razzles .
Razzles have a negative reputation , but they ’ re also democratic , in their way .
“ It gives people who don ’ t have the disposable income to belly up to the table , ” says Kidd .
“ And if you win , it ’ s almost more intense than having bought it outright.
” The more straightforward website My @ @ @ @ @ @ @ alternative to light gambling and cloak-and-dagger Facebook groups for its 25,000 active users .
Its founder , who would not provide his full name , started MBC in 2012 as “ the eBay of beer ” : Bottles or sets of them are available for auction , or offered for sale at a fixed price .
Sellers take precautions to skirt laws around selling alcohol by specifying that they ’ re selling bottles , not what ’ s in them .
“ All bottles or cans are sold for their collectibility and any @ @ @ @ @ @ @ caveats a listing .
Payments are conducted over Paypal , and MBC gets a 2 percent commission .
It ’ s easier than a beer-for-beer trade , the site ’ s founder says .
“ Trying to find the other side that ’ s got the exact thing you ’ re looking for , and negotiating what it ’ s worth is [ difficult ] .
” Ideally , a system of trading and selling one-off bottles helps small breweries without expensive distribution deals reach new customers in distant markets .
“ I @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for a site like My Beer Collectibles because it gets their product in the hands of people who wouldn ’ t normally see it , ” says the site ’ s founder .
“ A brewery like ours can ’ t legally ship beer , ” says Casey of Cellarmaker , who is against reselling beer for cash , but doesn ’ t oppose beer-for-beer trades .
Now he sees people drinking Cellarmaker all over the country .
“ To find out you have a fanbase in other states or cities is cool.
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ secondary sales and trades can erode primary sales to locals .
On his Instagram account @ dontdrinkbeers , Kidd depicts the system in meme form , laid over an image of Justin Trudeau at a Calgary flapjack breakfast .
The prime minister is labeled a “ shitlord profiteer ” buying up beer , his spatula is “ the secondary market , ” and he ’ s flipping a pancake that represents “ bottles some local could have purchased and enjoyed.
” To prevent that outcome , some breweries have tried to police resales @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and banning known resellers .
Two Washington beer fans , Jeremy Miller and Amanda Adams Isherwood , caused a minor online imbroglio this winter after they drove 200 miles to pick up limited-release beers at Floodland in Seattle — and were promptly banned for life for violating the brewery ’ s rule of one beer allotment per “ romantic couple.
” “ We just figured this was a rule that would be difficult to enforce and was designed to prevent reselling beer , ” says Miller , who claims he never planned to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ banning was sexist — the implication being that Isherwood wasn ’ t buying the beer for herself , but for her partner — and criticized Floodland on the Holy Mountain Brewing Facebook trading group , which he co-founded .
“ As far as drama , it ballooned pretty quick , ” says David Roberts , the Floodland Facebook trading group admin and a Holy Mountain Group member .
“ There were 600 comments in less than a day ... a lot of it was people just piling on.
” Floodland seems likely to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ down on trading beer for profit .
But the battle could be futile .
The more rules and the more drama , the more people join the Floodland trading group , that group ’ s admin says .
Casey has decided to just accept the facts .
” People are trading beer , they ’ re excited about beer — what are you gon na do , man , shake your fist at them and be like , ‘ You ’ re excited about beer , but you ’ re not doing it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ traders aren ’ t seeking profit , he means , there ’ s no real harm .
Beers might not arrive in ship-shape condition , but that ’ s better than nothing : Without a few daring traders , Cellarmaker wouldn ’ t reach new fans outside of San Francisco , and getting that early taste might lure new drinkers into eventually visiting the brewery .
Even an expensive bottle that might seem to imply exclusivity has the potential to bring people together , both online and in person .
“ A person @ @ @ @ @ @ @ not necessarily the same person who buys a $ 500 Canada Goose jacket , because what they ’ ll do is they ’ ll split [ the bottle ] 10 ways just so each person at some backyard share gets a 2-ounce pour , ” Kidd says .
“ Share ” might not be the right word : Drinkers can reasonably expect to pay the organizer $ 50 per pour , cash or Paypal accepted .
is an illustrator and animator based in Brooklyn , New York .

Since 2004, Russian River Brewing Company has built a whirring local tourist economy around the yearly release of its famously hoppy triple IPA, Pliny the Younger, available on draft at its Sonoma County brewpubs, then distributed in kegs to a small number of area bars a week later. Last February, during its 15th annual Pliny release, the beer generated more than $4 million in visitor revenue, according to the Sonoma County Economic Development Board. But this month’s 16th annual Pliny release resulted in a whole new secondary economy. For the first time, Russian River put the previously draft-only beer in bottles, limiting in-person, to-go sales of Pliny to two per customer and labeling bottles “not for resale.” Nice try. Pliny was soon available FT (“for trade”) on Facebook trading groups, offered ISO (“in search of,” or in exchange for) other rare beers, or available for cold hard cash, commanding many times its original $10 per 510-milliliter bottle price at the brewery.
Charging $155 for a single bottle of beer, as some did for Pliny, might cause the average beer drinker to spit out their average beer. But for a passionate community of craft beer aficionados who trade and resell rare beers online, that price was just business as usual.
As the American craft beer industry continues to grow, an online secondary market for rare or hard-to-find beer has taken up in its shadow. Highly perishable IPAs like Pliny the Younger aren’t typically traded due to their short shelf life. Instead, it’s barrel-aged stouts or wild-fermented lambics — beers with longer lifespans that take more time and effort to produce — that make for good and potentially lucrative trading. “The most valuable bottles are ones that are super limited, expensive at retail, and allocated very slimly,” explains beer blogger and podcaster Alex Kidd: beers like Toppling Goliath’s Assassin, Perennial Artisan Ales’ Maman, and one-offs from breweries like Hill Farmstead, Jester King, and Side Project Brewing. “A one-per-person bottle release probably has the best chance of hitting the highest margin, because the person giving that bottle up probably has the highest opportunity costs.”
Beers rarely retail for more than $30, but a bottle’s secondary value might be in the hundreds or even thousands of dollars. “There are a few [traders] that make a considerable amount of money,” says Kidd. But for the most part, that’s not the point: Traders are estimating a beer’s dollar value and exchanging beer for similarly valued beer, not cash. “They’re converting [a beer] to 300 dollars, so they can get another 300 bottle… because there’s no beer bucks or a beer-backed security they can swap,” says Kidd. “It looks like they’re profiting from these crazy sums, but these are not really super-wealthy people.”
Beer trading became common in the 2010s on sites like Beer Advocate, RateBeer, and Reddit. Technically, the U.S. Postal Service bans the shipment of any alcohol, and FedEx and UPS won’t knowingly ship booze, either. But it’s the way brewers like Connor Casey of San Francisco’s Cellarmaker Brewing Co. were able to take inspiration from distant breweries, allowing him to sample the once-rare, now-trendy Galaxy hop, for instance. “Was I trying it in its best shape [shipped across the country]? No. Was I grateful to have tried it? Yeah,” says Casey, who now frequently brews with Galaxy.
Beer traders themselves have gained a somewhat unflattering reputation, according to Kidd. “If I’m going to paint with a broad brush,” he says, “the usual type of beer-trader guy is a profiteering, libertarian, market sets the value, you can’t tell me what to do with my bottle once I have it type of mentality.”
But that’s far from everybody. Kidd says he’s sent out more than 2,000 beers in trades. “It’s the lifeline of the rare stuff I get,” he says, how his podcast, blog, and beer world-infamous Instagram account, @dontdrinkbeers, are all made possible.
But in past years, RateBeer sold a stake to A-B InBev, blowing its credibility with beer geeks, and Beer Advocate banned commentary on trades, frustrating users. Even Reddit shut down its beer-trading hub, r/beertrade. Now, most of the action occurs in private, members-only Facebook groups. Some are general, while many are devoted to a single region or popular brewery.
David Roberts of Washington runs one such group, called Floodland: Seekers After Light. Its 1,100 members — all approved by Roberts – are dedicated to trades involving the Washington-based Floodland Brewing. Trade posts follow a standard format: “FT: Protection Spells or Muscat or Timework Aflame,” reads one offer, advertising three barrel-aged beers from Floodland. “ISO: One fresh Pliny the Younger and one Pliny the Elder.” Negotiations and peanut-gallery evaluations of the trade and the beers involved ensue in the comments below.
“We try to keep everything super transparent and out in the open,” says Roberts (once a user is accepted to the Facebook group, that is). After a trade is agreed upon, parties announce it closed and conduct the transaction over private messages or off Facebook. “There’s not a lot of moderation involved,” Roberts says. “There’s rules posted at the top of the page, but it’s pretty simple.”
Things could soon get harder. Last year, Facebook formally banned the sale of alcohol and tobacco between users, shutting down a number of high-profile bourbon-trading groups. Beer-trading group admins also fear Facebook’s cross-hairs, and rightly so, as several have already been banned.
“You’re seeing a lot more secrecy in these groups now,” Kidd says. “It’s exceedingly difficult to get into some of [them] ... there’s precious few places to go and engage in this subculture at this point.”
Legally suspect “Beer Razzle” groups are even more secretive. Razzles are just raffles, their name likely obscured to escape notice from moderators. Think Powerball, but for rare beer, explains Kidd: “It’s essentially [for] if you can’t afford the $450 cost of entry on a bottle like Side Project BBT, but you want a shot at trying it.” A “razzler” might pay $50 for a chance to win the bottle by picking a ball number: If it’s pulled, they’ll get the beer. Razzlers don’t actually conduct the raffle themselves; they just tie their razzle to a real lottery, such as the actual Powerball, for fairness and simplicity. One Chicago beer group on Facebook called “Candy Enthusiasts” suggests selling slots tied to the Illinois Pick 3 lottery. Its profile picture is of the candy Razzles.
Razzles have a negative reputation, but they’re also democratic, in their way. “It gives people who don’t have the disposable income to belly up to the table,” says Kidd. “And if you win, it’s almost more intense than having bought it outright.”
The more straightforward website My Beer Collectibles (MBC) offers an alternative to light gambling and cloak-and-dagger Facebook groups for its 25,000 active users. Its founder, who would not provide his full name, started MBC in 2012 as “the eBay of beer”: Bottles or sets of them are available for auction, or offered for sale at a fixed price. Sellers take precautions to skirt laws around selling alcohol by specifying that they’re selling bottles, not what’s in them. “All bottles or cans are sold for their collectibility and any contents are incidental,” one seller caveats a listing.
Payments are conducted over Paypal, and MBC gets a 2 percent commission. It’s easier than a beer-for-beer trade, the site’s founder says. “Trying to find the other side that’s got the exact thing you’re looking for, and negotiating what it’s worth is [difficult].”
Ideally, a system of trading and selling one-off bottles helps small breweries without expensive distribution deals reach new customers in distant markets. “I’ve met breweries that are all for a site like My Beer Collectibles because it gets their product in the hands of people who wouldn’t normally see it,” says the site’s founder.
“A brewery like ours can’t legally ship beer,” says Casey of Cellarmaker, who is against reselling beer for cash, but doesn’t oppose beer-for-beer trades. Now he sees people drinking Cellarmaker all over the country. “To find out you have a fanbase in other states or cities is cool.”
But if taken too far, secondary sales and trades can erode primary sales to locals. On his Instagram account @dontdrinkbeers, Kidd depicts the system in meme form, laid over an image of Justin Trudeau at a Calgary flapjack breakfast. The prime minister is labeled a “shitlord profiteer” buying up beer, his spatula is “the secondary market,” and he’s flipping a pancake that represents “bottles some local could have purchased and enjoyed.”
To prevent that outcome, some breweries have tried to police resales, enforcing strict rules at bottle releases and banning known resellers. Two Washington beer fans, Jeremy Miller and Amanda Adams Isherwood, caused a minor online imbroglio this winter after they drove 200 miles to pick up limited-release beers at Floodland in Seattle — and were promptly banned for life for violating the brewery’s rule of one beer allotment per “romantic couple.”
“We just figured this was a rule that would be difficult to enforce and was designed to prevent reselling beer,” says Miller, who claims he never planned to sell his allotment.
Miller argued the banning was sexist — the implication being that Isherwood wasn’t buying the beer for herself, but for her partner — and criticized Floodland on the Holy Mountain Brewing Facebook trading group, which he co-founded. “As far as drama, it ballooned pretty quick,” says David Roberts, the Floodland Facebook trading group admin and a Holy Mountain Group member. “There were 600 comments in less than a day... a lot of it was people just piling on.”
Floodland seems likely to keep fighting the secondary market, cracking down on trading beer for profit. But the battle could be futile. The more rules and the more drama, the more people join the Floodland trading group, that group’s admin says.
Casey has decided to just accept the facts. ”People are trading beer, they’re excited about beer — what are you gonna do, man, shake your fist at them and be like, ‘You’re excited about beer, but you’re not doing it right’?” As long as traders aren’t seeking profit, he means, there’s no real harm. Beers might not arrive in ship-shape condition, but that’s better than nothing: Without a few daring traders, Cellarmaker wouldn’t reach new fans outside of San Francisco, and getting that early taste might lure new drinkers into eventually visiting the brewery.
Even an expensive bottle that might seem to imply exclusivity has the potential to bring people together, both online and in person. “A person who buys a $500 beer is not necessarily the same person who buys a $500 Canada Goose jacket, because what they’ll do is they’ll split [the bottle] 10 ways just so each person at some backyard share gets a 2-ounce pour,” Kidd says. “Share” might not be the right word: Drinkers can reasonably expect to pay the organizer $50 per pour, cash or Paypal accepted.
Carolyn Figel is an illustrator and animator based in Brooklyn, New York.