vox--2020-08-23--The Republican National Convention: Who’s speaking and how to watch

The Republican National Convention will open Monday for four days of in-person and online events featuring a slew of conservative voices including Secretary of State Mike Pompeo , Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell , and — of course — President Donald Trump .
Trump is slated to speak every night of the convention leading up to Thursday evening , when he will formally accept the party ’ s nomination to be its candidate for president this fall .
The Trump campaign released the list of speakers for the convention Sunday morning .
Among the speakers on Monday , which is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Republican National Committee Chairwoman Ronna McDaniel , Turning Point USA founder Charlie Kirk , former US Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley , Donald Trump Jr. , and Mark and Patricia McCloskey , the St. Louis-area couple that brandished guns at Black Lives Matter protesters in late June .
On Tuesday , themed “ Land of Opportunity , ” First Lady Melania Trump will speak , as well as Pompeo , Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky and Eric and Tiffany Trump .
Wednesday , which is “ Land of Heroes ” themed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , speaking from Baltimore ’ s Fort McHenry , along with Sens .
Marsha Blackburn and Joni Ernst , Counselor to the President Kellyanne Conway , former NFL player Jack Brewer , and Lara Trump , the president ’ s daughter-in-law ( wife of Eric ) who is a Trump campaign adviser .
The speakers in Thursday ’ s “ Land of Greatness ” lineup include Housing and Urban Development Secretary Ben Carson , Sen. McConnell , House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy , Ivanka Trump , Rudy Giuliani , and finally Trump himself @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The convention was originally scheduled to be held in person at the Charlotte Convention Center in Charlotte , North Carolina .
But due to the coronavirus pandemic , it will now be held partly in person in Charlotte and partly remotely , with speeches delivered from Washington , DC , and elsewhere .
Trump ’ s acceptance speech was supposed to take place in Jacksonville , Florida , but was cancelled in late July as cases surged in the state .
The in-person portion of the convention will include a roll call of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and territory — in Charlotte on Monday night , compared with the 2,400 that came to the 2016 RNC .
Trump and Pence are expected to show up in person to the event on Monday .
Attendees will be asked to quarantine as much as possible beforehand and will be required to take temperature checks before entering the venue .
The RNC will be live-streamed online through the Committee ’ s social media accounts on Facebook , Twitter , Twitch , YouTube and Amazon Prime .
Most major television channels , including ABC @ @ @ @ @ @ @ CNN , MSNBC , NBC News and PBS News , are also expected to cover the convention .

The Republican National Convention will open Monday for four days of in-person and online events featuring a slew of conservative voices including Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, and — of course — President Donald Trump.
Trump is slated to appear every day of the convention (but may not give an address every night) leading up to Thursday evening, when he will formally accept the party’s nomination to be its candidate for president this fall.
The Trump campaign released the list of speakers for the convention Sunday morning.
The Trump campaign releases list of RNC speakers for this week pic.twitter.com/tvffhA0N9n — Seung Min Kim (@seungminkim) August 23, 2020
Among the speakers on Monday, which is themed “Land of Promise”: Republican National Committee Chairwoman Ronna McDaniel, Turning Point USA founder Charlie Kirk, former US Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley, Donald Trump Jr., and Mark and Patricia McCloskey, the St. Louis-area couple that brandished guns at Black Lives Matter protesters in late June.
On Tuesday, themed “Land of Opportunity,” First Lady Melania Trump will speak, as well as Pompeo, Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky and Eric and Tiffany Trump.
Wednesday, which is “Land of Heroes” themed, will feature Vice President Mike Pence, speaking from Baltimore’s Fort McHenry, along with Sens. Marsha Blackburn and Joni Ernst, Counselor to the President Kellyanne Conway, former NFL player Jack Brewer, and Lara Trump, the president’s daughter-in-law (wife of Eric) who is a Trump campaign adviser.
The speakers in Thursday’s “Land of Greatness” lineup include Housing and Urban Development Secretary Ben Carson, Sen. McConnell, House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy, Ivanka Trump, Rudy Giuliani, and finally Trump himself, speaking from the White House.
The convention was originally scheduled to be held in person at the Charlotte Convention Center in Charlotte, North Carolina. But due to the coronavirus pandemic, it will now be held partly in person in Charlotte and partly remotely, with speeches delivered from Washington, DC, and elsewhere. Trump’s acceptance speech was supposed to take place in Jacksonville, Florida, but was cancelled in late July as cases surged in the state.
The in-person portion of the convention will include a roll call of 336 delegates — six for each state and territory — in Charlotte on Monday night, compared with the 2,400 that came to the 2016 RNC. Trump and Pence are expected to show up in person to the event on Monday. Attendees will be asked to quarantine as much as possible beforehand and will be required to take temperature checks before entering the venue.
The RNC will be live-streamed online through the Committee’s social media accounts on Facebook, Twitter, Twitch, YouTube and Amazon Prime. Most major television channels, including ABC News, CBS News, C-SPAN, CNN, MSNBC, NBC News and PBS News, are also expected to cover the convention.
New goal: 25,000
In the spring, we launched a program asking readers for financial contributions to help keep Vox free for everyone, and last week, we set a goal of reaching 20,000 contributors. Well, you helped us blow past that. Today, we are extending that goal to 25,000. Millions turn to Vox each month to understand an increasingly chaotic world — from what is happening with the USPS to the coronavirus crisis to what is, quite possibly, the most consequential presidential election of our lifetimes. Even when the economy and the news advertising market recovers, your support will be a critical part of sustaining our resource-intensive work — and helping everyone make sense of an increasingly chaotic world. Contribute today from as little as $3.


vox--2020-08-22--Watch: In Wonder Woman 1984’s new trailer, Diana and Cheetah go head to head

The newest trailer for Wonder Woman 1984 has arrived , bringing us new action sequences , a romantic reunion , and an extended look at the movie ’ s new villain .
In it , Gal Gadot ’ s Diana Prince returns to us in the 1980s — 70 or so years since Wonder Woman ’ s adventures in her first film , and everything is glitzy , golden , and perfect .
But there ’ s an undercurrent of doom : Maxwell Lord ( Pedro Pascal ) is seen and heard saying he can make everyone ’ s dreams @ @ @ @ @ @ @ seems to mean a reunion with the love of her life , Steve Trevor .
But that promise also signals the emergence of Barbara Minerva ( Kristen Wiig ) , who covets everything Diana has .
And it seems that getting it will mean making a Faustian deal to become the villain known as Cheetah .
“ Barbara , what have you done , ” Prince says in the new trailer , featuring a knockdown fight between the two , a scene that wasn ’ t included in the first trailer drop .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ represents the latest chapter in the saga of the movie ’ s release .
Originally , the blockbuster was scheduled to hit theaters on June 5 of this year .
The Covid-19 pandemic scrapped that plan , and eventually nixed its rescheduled date of August 14 , too .
Warner Bros. is now hoping to release Wonder Woman 1984 on October 2 , 2020 — about four months after its original date .
With Patty Jenkins returning to direct , and Gadot reprising her role as the Amazon-turned-superhero Diana Prince , Wonder Woman @ @ @ @ @ @ @ bold success of the first film .
Prior to Wonder Woman ’ s release in 2017 , movies about women superheroes were few and far between .
But Wonder Woman resonated with audiences and overachieved at the box office , bringing in $ 821 million worldwide on a reported $ 100 million budget .
The character has now become the flagship superhero for Warner Bros. Wonder Woman 1984 looks to continue writing the character ’ s legacy — and hopefully fans will be able to safely see it in a theater .
Wonder @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in theaters on October 2 , 2020 .
In the spring , we launched a program asking readers for financial contributions to help keep Vox free for everyone , and last week , we set a goal of reaching 20,000 contributors .
Well , you helped us blow past that .
Today , we are extending that goal to 25,000 .
Millions turn to Vox each month to understand an increasingly chaotic world — from what is happening with the USPS to the coronavirus crisis to what is , quite possibly , the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Even when the economy and the news advertising market recovers , your support will be a critical part of sustaining our resource-intensive work — and helping everyone make sense of an increasingly chaotic world .
Contribute today from as little as $ 3 .

The newest trailer for Wonder Woman 1984 has arrived, bringing us new action sequences, a romantic reunion, and an extended look at the movie’s new villain.
In it, Gal Gadot’s Diana Prince returns to us in the 1980s — 70 or so years since Wonder Woman’s adventures in her first film — and everything is glitzy, golden, and perfect. But there’s an undercurrent of doom: Maxwell Lord (Pedro Pascal) is seen and heard saying he can make everyone’s dreams come true, and for Diana that seems to mean a reunion with the love of her life, Steve Trevor.
But that promise also signals the emergence of Barbara Minerva (Kristen Wiig), who covets everything Diana has. And it seems that getting it will mean making a Faustian deal to become the villain known as Cheetah.
“Barbara, what have you done?” Prince says in the new trailer, featuring a knockdown fight between the two, a scene that wasn’t included in the first trailer drop.
The new trailer for Wonder Woman 1984 represents the latest chapter in the saga of the movie’s release. Originally, the blockbuster was scheduled to hit theaters on June 5 of this year. The Covid-19 pandemic scrapped that plan, and eventually nixed its rescheduled date of August 14, too. Warner Bros. is now hoping to release Wonder Woman 1984 on October 2, 2020 — about four months after its original date.
With Patty Jenkins returning to direct, and Gadot reprising her role as the Amazon-turned-superhero Diana Prince, Wonder Woman 1984 also looks to capitalize on the bold success of the first film.
Prior to Wonder Woman’s release in 2017, movies about women superheroes were few and far between. But Wonder Woman resonated with audiences and overachieved at the box office, bringing in $821 million worldwide on a reported $100 million budget. The character has now become the flagship superhero for Warner Bros.
Wonder Woman 1984 looks to continue writing the character’s legacy — and, hopefully, fans will be able to safely see it in a theater.
Wonder Woman 1984 is currently scheduled to arrive in theaters on October 2, 2020.


vox--2020-08-24--Democrats should learn the wisdom of Tammy Baldwin

If Joe Biden wants to fulfill the promise of a Joe Biden presidency , Democrats need to take control of the Senate .
So it was notable that the Democratic National Convention found time for everyone from Hillary Clinton to Andrew Yang to Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez to John Kasich to speak , but almost none for Democrats running to flip Republican Senate seats .
That ’ s probably for the best given the overall tenor of the convention .
Democrats who have won in Republican territory in recent years pitch messages that emphasize popular policies , like better health care , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ wage , while deemphasizing race , immigration , gender , and other cultural values .
Biden himself has stumped for this type of candidate and tends to practice a moderate style of politics .
The convention certainly took the time to display Republican speakers vouching personally for his character , but it mostly highlighted ideas that resonate with Democrats ’ base in large diverse urban areas .
California Sen. Kamala Harris , the vice presidential nominee who is clearly being positioned as the future of the party , situated herself in the tradition @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and Mary McCleod Bethune , Fannie Lou Hamer and Diane Nash , Constance Baker Motley and Shirley Chisholm ” while further name-checking her mother who “ raised us to be proud , strong Black women .
And she raised us to know and be proud of our Indian heritage.
” Red-state Democrats don ’ t talk like this — a contrast that ’ s about political style and points of rhetorical emphasis , rather than policy .
To pick up marginal voters who are typically white and not college-educated , they zero in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ bringing concrete , material assistance to people in need rather than their candidacy is an avatar of cultural or demographic change .
And if Biden wants to deliver on his promise that “ we ’ ll not only build it back , we ’ ll build it back better , ” he ’ s going to need wins for red-state Democrats .
Building requires Congress .
And while Trump ’ s flailing response to the pandemic has made a Biden victory clearly the more likely scenario , there ’ s a real risk @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Democrats their shot at the congressional majority they need .
To secure a majority in the Senate , Democrats need to pick up three seats on net .
Sara Gideon of Maine , who did speak at the convention , was the exception that proves the rule .
She ’ s in the unusual position of getting to run in a clearly blue state , but faced with the obstacle that her opponent , Susan Collins , is a widely popular moderate Republican .
In Gideon ’ s case , that path to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ polarizing the election , and letting the fact that Maine voted Democratic in the last seven presidential elections carry her to victory .
Democrats also need John Hickenlooper to win in Colorado , where a similar strategy should work .
But getting the third seat is trickier .
The most likely pickup is Arizona , a right-of-center state where FiveThirtyEight says Biden has a 56 percent chance of winning , in part because his national lead is so large .
The bigger problem is that Democrats currently hold a Senate seat in Alabama @ @ @ @ @ @ @ doesn ’ t have the luxury of running against Roy Moore .
If you drop Jones , then Democrats need to make up for it with a win in North Carolina ( where they give Trump a 51 percent chance of winning ) , Georgia ( Trump 67 percent ) , Texas ( Trump 74 percent ) or else the very red state of Montana ( Trump 88 percent ) , where Democrats have a strong candidate in incumbent Gov .
Steve Bullock and a track record of winning statewide despite poor performance @ @ @ @ @ @ @ impossible .
But it ’ s not a gim me even in a very favorable national political climate .
The current state of the race gives Biden a large lead over Trump , but not large enough to be favored in enough states to be confident of a Senate majority .
Biden either needs to expand his appeal to more right-of-center voters or Democratic Senate candidates need to separate themselves from the national party brand in order to appeal to more right-of-center voters .
Rank-and-file Democrats are not right-of-center voters .
Neither are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ kinds of people who staff Democratic Party campaigns , congressional offices , or para-party nonprofit institutions .
Nor , for that matter , are the kinds of people who write about politics on the internet .
In their hearts , they don ’ t want to cater to right-of-center voters ’ preferences and sensibilities , in part because they feel it ’ s unfair that they should have to .
And it really is unfair !
Polling averages suggest that North Carolina , the Senate tipping-point state , is about seven points to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Senate badly underrepresents nonwhite citizens and overrepresents white voters without a college degree .
The racial bias of the US Senate is by some margin the clearest and most significant example of “ structural racism ” in American life : Non-white people ’ s views and interests simply don ’ t count as much as white people ’ s .
And the gap is large — so large that , according to Data for Progress co-founder Colin McAuliffe ’ s math , even making DC and Puerto Rico into states would not fully @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in turn creates two problems .
One is that to remediate the structural racism of the Senate , you need to win a majority first .
The other is that precisely because the structural racism is present , talking about “ structural racism ” on the trail is probably not a good way to win the marginal seats that Democrats need in order to govern .
If they want a role model for how to win difficult Senate races in right-of-center states that overrepresent non-college-educated white people , Democrats should pay attention to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Baldwin ( D-WI ) , one of the few speakers at the convention who ’ s actually done it .
My colleague German Lopez hailed Baldwin ’ s speech as an example of why she was seriously considered for a VP roles , striking “ many of the themes Democrats have tried to highlight throughout the convention.
” Her central theme was health care policy , the Covid-19 pandemic , and the interplay between the two — a sober political analysis driven by the fact that surveys say the virus is voters ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ care is the policy issue where voters trust the Democratic Party over the GOP by the largest margin .
But what ’ s also interesting about Baldwin ’ s speech is what she didn ’ t say .
Unlike Kamala Harris , who spoke at some length on the historic nature of a Black woman and the child of immigrants on a national ticket , Baldwin didn ’ t mention anything about her own path-breaking career .
She ’ s the first openly gay person elected to the United States Senate , and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ seat was the first openly gay woman to serve there .
The Democratic Party base — by which I mean not necessarily the most left-wing people in the country but the people most personally invested in the party — cares , a lot , about this kind of thing .
It is a key reason why Harris was selected and in turn a key reason why her selection has been such a fundraising hit .
But Baldwin wins in a modestly right-of-center state that has a disproportionately large number of non-college-educated white voters @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Not by throwing LGBTQ people — or racial minorities or any other significant demographic group — under the bus on policy , where she has a solidly left-wing record but by choosing to emphasize issues like health care where the Democratic Party is very broadly popular and by running goofy ads about her service to the Wisconsin dairy industry .
A national convention serves many purposes , and it ’ s no surprise that Democrats at times veered off the strict logic of election-winning .
But , to some extent , the party @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to emphasize the message that maximizes its odds of being able to govern in 2021 or emphasize the message that most appeals to its partisans .
The opposite of Baldwin ’ s speech , more or less , was the entire third day of the convention , which opened with a paean to gun control activists , moved on to the virtues of immigration , took a detour into Barack Obama warning that American democracy itself will perish if Trump wins reelection , and concluded with Harris warning that “ there ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to do the work.
” These are all important issues .
( I have a book coming out next month that ’ s largely about the virtues of immigration . )
They very much speak to things that motivate Democratic Party loyalists to be Democrats .
Gun control , immigration , and anti-racism are not what wins over non-college-educated white swing voters in the Midwest .
But they also don ’ t appear to be what matters most to marginal Black and Latino voters .
Democrats would do well to listen to Chuck @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s incredibly successful Hispanic outreach .
He says “ an anti-Trump message is useful — after all , the president is a disaster for Latinos — but Latinos don ’ t know what a Biden administration would mean for their families .
We need to tell them how Mr. Biden ’ s recently announced Latino agenda would inject their small businesses with capital , raise the minimum wage to $ 15 an hour , and eliminate the minimum tipped wage , which would greatly benefit Latino restaurant workers.
” Hispanic voters are US @ @ @ @ @ @ @ they want to know how politicians are going to improve their lives in concrete ways .
An August Latino Decisions poll found that the top issues for Hispanic voters are the coronavirus , health care costs , and jobs , while Equis Research ’ s message testing found that talking about “ plans to expand access to health care , tackle climate change , and finally make it possible for any American to get their college degree without plunging into years of debt ” outperformed one that framed Biden as a leader on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ practices that separate families and keep kids in cages.
” After John Kerry ’ s defeat in the 2004 presidential election , Democrats made a vow to stop losing elections over gun control issues .
In 2006 and 2008 , it worked .
But when the Sandy Hook mass shooting happened in the wake of Obama ’ s reelection , they decided enough was enough and they had to do something .
But reinjecting the issue into national politics didn ’ t lead to any national policy change .
Even though many individual @ @ @ @ @ @ @ truth is that in a high-level choice over what ’ s more important to voters in Maine , New Hampshire , Pennsylvania , Michigan , Wisconsin , Ohio , and Minnesota — to say nothing of North Carolina , Montana , Georgia , or West Virginia — choose protecting gun rights .
It ’ s also telling that despite the popularity of background checks and the extremism of the NRA , the Republicans have a 5-point advantage in the polls as the party better situated to address gun policy .
Which is just @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in their calmer moments that even if they do really well in 2020 , they aren ’ t going to eliminate the filibuster and then get Joe Manchin and Jon Tester to agree to back sweeping new gun regulations .
Democratic Party professionals want to talk about gun regulation at their convention because it ’ s something they , personally , care a lot about ( the fact that major donor Mike Bloomberg also cares a lot doesn ’ t hurt ) , which is a legitimate reason to talk about it .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ , you need to win the election , secure a Senate majority , and then fill the executive branch and judiciary with appointees who will quietly accomplish what can be accomplished in a world where the prospects for legislative action are bleak .
If democracy is at stake , act like it To anyone who has watched the arc of Obama ’ s five Democratic National Convention speeches , there was something striking about his Wednesday night address .
The values he espouses have stayed rock solid since the Boston speech that made @ @ @ @ @ @ @ hope and change ” were incredibly absent from his address from the Constitution Center in Philadelphia .
Instead , Obama was alarming , warning that if Trump gets reelected , we ’ ll see a world where “ democracy withers , until it ’ s no democracy at all.
” He said that solving America ’ s big problems would take time and take work , “ but any chance of success depends entirely on the outcome of this election.
” And I think he means it .
The administration ’ s habit @ @ @ @ @ @ @ state against Trump ’ s perceived critics and enemies isn ’ t going to get better if he ’ s reelected .
But taking that idea seriously means a bit more than scolding non-voters about the importance of making a plan to vote .
It means taking seriously the fact that there are lots of people who voted for Obama in 2012 and Trump in 2016 .
And many then flipped back to support down-ballot Democrats in 2018 .
There are many Montanans who voted for Trump in 2016 and on that very @ @ @ @ @ @ @ race as governor , and those voters ’ choice this November could very well decide the balance of power in the Senate .
Catering to the views and priorities of people who don ’ t see the obvious awfulness of Trump and who exercise undeserved power thanks to unearned privilege is a bitter pill to swallow .
But if democracy really is at stake , then the only reasonable course of action is to act like it and campaign a bit more like Tammy Baldwin and a bit less the way that comes @ @ @ @ @ @ @ spring , we launched a program asking readers for financial contributions to help keep Vox free for everyone , and last week , we set a goal of reaching 20,000 contributors .
Well , you helped us blow past that .
Today , we are extending that goal to 25,000 .
Millions turn to Vox each month to understand an increasingly chaotic world — from what is happening with the USPS to the coronavirus crisis to what is , quite possibly , the most consequential presidential election of our lifetimes .
Even when @ @ @ @ @ @ @ recovers , your support will be a critical part of sustaining our resource-intensive work — and helping everyone make sense of an increasingly chaotic world .
Contribute today from as little as $ 3 .

If Joe Biden wants to fulfill the promise of a Joe Biden presidency, Democrats need to take control of the Senate. So it was notable that the Democratic National Convention found time for everyone from Hillary Clinton to Andrew Yang to Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez to John Kasich to speak, but almost none for Democrats running to flip Republican Senate seats.
That’s probably for the best given the overall tenor of the convention.
Democrats who have won in Republican territory in recent years pitch messages that emphasize popular policies, like better health care, job creation, and raising the minimum wage, while deemphasizing race, immigration, gender, and other cultural values.
Biden himself has stumped for this type of candidate and tends to practice a moderate style of politics. The convention certainly took the time to display Republican speakers vouching personally for his character, but it mostly highlighted ideas that resonate with Democrats’ base in large, diverse urban areas.
California Sen. Kamala Harris, the vice presidential nominee who is clearly being positioned as the future of the party, situated herself in the tradition of “women like Mary Church Terrell and Mary McCleod Bethune, Fannie Lou Hamer and Diane Nash, Constance Baker Motley and Shirley Chisholm” while further name-checking her mother, who “raised us to be proud, strong Black women. And she raised us to know and be proud of our Indian heritage.”
Red-state Democrats don’t talk like this — a contrast that’s about political style and points of rhetorical emphasis, rather than policy. To pick up marginal voters who are typically white and not college-educated, they zero in relentlessly on the idea that they are bringing concrete, material assistance to people in need rather than their candidacy being an avatar of cultural or demographic change.
And if Biden wants to deliver on his promise that “we’ll not only build it back, we’ll build it back better,” he’s going to need wins for red-state Democrats. Building requires Congress. And while Trump’s flailing response to the pandemic has made a Biden victory clearly the more likely scenario, there’s a real risk that complacency and ideological self-satisfaction could cost Democrats their shot at the congressional majority they need.
The Senate map is bad
To secure a majority in the Senate, Democrats need to pick up three seats on net.
Sara Gideon of Maine, who did speak at the convention, was the exception that proves the rule. She’s in the unusual position of getting to run in a clearly blue state, but faced with the obstacle that her opponent, Susan Collins, is a widely popular moderate Republican. In Gideon’s case, that path to victory is rallying the Democratic faithful, polarizing the election, and letting the fact that Maine voted Democratic in the last seven presidential elections carry her to victory.
Democrats also need John Hickenlooper to win in Colorado, where a similar strategy should work.
But getting the third seat is trickier. The most likely pickup is Arizona, a right-of-center state where FiveThirtyEight says Biden has a 56 percent chance of winning, in part because his national lead is so large.
The bigger problem is that Democrats currently hold a Senate seat in Alabama, and this time around, Doug Jones doesn’t have the luxury of running against Roy Moore.
If Jones loses, Democrats need to make up for it with a win in North Carolina (where they give Trump a 51 percent chance of winning), Georgia (Trump 67 percent), Texas (Trump 74 percent), or else the very red state of Montana (Trump 88 percent), where Democrats have a strong candidate in incumbent Gov. Steve Bullock and a track record of winning statewide despite poor performance in presidential races. This is not impossible. But it’s not a gimme even in a very favorable national political climate.
The current state of the race gives Biden a large lead over Trump, but not large enough to be favored in enough states to be confident of a Senate majority. Either Biden needs to expand his appeal to more right-of-center voters or Democratic Senate candidates need to separate themselves from the national party brand in order to appeal to more right-of-center voters.
Rank-and-file Democrats are not right-of-center voters. Neither are Democratic Party donors. Nor are the kinds of people who staff Democratic Party campaigns, congressional offices, or para-party nonprofit institutions. Nor, for that matter, are the kinds of people who write about politics on the internet.
In their hearts, they don’t want to cater to right-of-center voters’ preferences and sensibilities, in part because they feel it’s unfair that they should have to. And it really is unfair! Polling averages suggest that North Carolina, the Senate tipping-point state, is about 7 points to the right of the country. The Senate badly underrepresents nonwhite citizens and overrepresents white voters without a college degree.
The racial bias of the US Senate is by some margin the clearest and most significant example of “structural racism” in American life: Nonwhite people’s views and interests simply don’t count as much as white people’s. And the gap is large — so large that, according to Data for Progress co-founder Colin McAuliffe’s math, even making DC and Puerto Rico into states would not fully equalize the racial representation gap.
That in turn creates two problems. One is that to remediate the structural racism of the Senate, you need to win a majority first. The other is that precisely because the structural racism is present, talking about “structural racism” on the trail is probably not a good way to win the marginal seats that Democrats need in order to govern. If they want a role model for how to win difficult Senate races in right-of-center states that overrepresent non-college-educated white people, Democrats should pay attention to the brief speech delivered by Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-WI), one of the few speakers at the convention who’s actually done it.
The wisdom of Tammy Baldwin
My colleague German Lopez hailed Baldwin’s speech as an example of why she was seriously considered for a VP roles, striking “many of the themes Democrats have tried to highlight throughout the convention.”
Her central theme was health care policy, the Covid-19 pandemic, and the interplay between the two — a sober political analysis driven by the fact that surveys say the virus is voters’ No. 1 concern and that health care is the policy issue where voters trust the Democratic Party over the GOP by the largest margin.
But what’s also interesting about Baldwin’s speech is what she didn’t say.
Unlike Kamala Harris, who spoke at some length on the historic nature of a Black woman and the child of immigrants on a national ticket, Baldwin didn’t mention anything about her own path-breaking career. She’s the first openly gay person elected to the United States Senate, and at the time she won her House seat, she was the first openly gay woman to serve there.
The Democratic Party base — by which I mean not necessarily the most left-wing people in the country but the people most personally invested in the party — cares, a lot, about this kind of thing. It is a key reason Harris was selected and in turn a key reason her selection has been such a fundraising hit.
But Baldwin wins in a modestly right-of-center state that has a disproportionately large number of non-college-educated white voters by downplaying these kinds of concerns. Not by throwing LGBTQ people — or racial minorities or any other significant demographic group — under the bus on policy, where she has a solidly left-wing record, but by choosing to emphasize issues like health care where the Democratic Party is very broadly popular and by running goofy ads about her service to the Wisconsin dairy industry.
A national convention serves many purposes, and it’s no surprise that Democrats at times veered off the strict logic of election-winning. But, to some extent, the party needs to choose between whether it wants to emphasize the message that maximizes its odds of being able to govern in 2021 or emphasize the message that most appeals to its partisans.
Campaign to win
The opposite of Baldwin’s speech, more or less, was the entire third day of the convention, which opened with a paean to gun control activists, moved on to the virtues of immigration, took a detour into Barack Obama warning that American democracy itself will perish if Trump wins reelection, and concluded with Harris warning that “there’s no vaccine for racism; we have to do the work.”
These are all important issues. (I have a book coming out next month that’s largely about the virtues of immigration.) They very much speak to things that motivate Democratic Party loyalists to be Democrats. Gun control, immigration, and anti-racism are not what wins over non-college-educated white swing voters in the Midwest.
But they also don’t appear to be what matters most to marginal Black and Latino voters. Democrats would do well to listen to Chuck Rocha, who led Bernie Sanders’s incredibly successful Hispanic outreach. He says “an anti-Trump message is useful — after all, the president is a disaster for Latinos — but Latinos don’t know what a Biden administration would mean for their families. We need to tell them how Mr. Biden’s recently announced Latino agenda would inject their small businesses with capital, raise the minimum wage to $15 an hour, and eliminate the minimum tipped wage, which would greatly benefit Latino restaurant workers.”
Hispanic voters are US citizens. And like everyone else, they want to know how politicians are going to improve their lives in concrete ways. An August Latino Decisions poll found that the top issues for Hispanic voters are the coronavirus, health care costs, and jobs, while Equis Research’s message testing found that talking about “plans to expand access to health care, tackle climate change, and finally make it possible for any American to get their college degree without plunging into years of debt” outperformed one that framed Biden as a leader on DACA and an opponent of “immoral practices that separate families and keep kids in cages.”
After John Kerry’s defeat in the 2004 presidential election, Democrats vowed to stop losing elections over gun control issues. In 2006 and 2008, it worked. But when the Sandy Hook mass shooting happened in the wake of Obama’s reelection, they decided enough was enough and they had to do something.
But reinjecting the issue into national politics didn’t lead to any national policy change. Even though many individual gun control measures poll well, the truth is that in a high-level choice over what’s more important to voters in Maine, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio, and Minnesota — to say nothing of North Carolina, Montana, Georgia, or West Virginia — choose protecting gun rights.
It’s also telling that despite the popularity of background checks and the extremism of the NRA, the Republicans have a 5-point advantage in the polls as the party better situated to address gun policy.
Which is just to say that Democrats know perfectly well in their calmer moments that even if they do really well in 2020, they aren’t going to eliminate the filibuster and then get Joe Manchin and Jon Tester to agree to back sweeping new gun regulations.
Democratic Party professionals want to talk about gun regulation at their convention because it’s something they, personally, care a lot about (the fact that major donor Mike Bloomberg also cares a lot doesn’t hurt), which is a legitimate reason to talk about it. But if you want to do things, you need to win the election, secure a Senate majority, and then fill the executive branch and judiciary with appointees who will quietly accomplish what can be accomplished in a world where the prospects for legislative action are bleak.
If democracy is at stake, act like it
To anyone who has watched the arc of Obama’s five Democratic National Convention speeches, there was something striking about his Wednesday night address. The values he espouses have stayed rock solid since the Boston speech that made him a political superstar. But “hope and change” were incredibly absent from his address from the Constitution Center in Philadelphia.
Instead, Obama was alarming, warning that if Trump gets reelected, we’ll see a world where “democracy withers, until it’s no democracy at all.”
He said that solving America’s big problems would take time and take work, “but any chance of success depends entirely on the outcome of this election.”
And I think he means it. The administration’s habit of weaponizing law enforcement and the regulatory state against Trump’s perceived critics and enemies isn’t going to get better if he’s reelected. But taking that idea seriously means a bit more than scolding non-voters about the importance of making a plan to vote. It means taking seriously the fact that there are lots of people who voted for Obama in 2012 and Trump in 2016. And many then flipped back to support down-ballot Democrats in 2018. There are many Montanans who voted for Trump in 2016 and on that very same day helped Bullock win his reelection race as governor, and those voters’ choice this November could very well decide the balance of power in the Senate.
Catering to the views and priorities of people who don’t see the obvious awfulness of Trump and who exercise undeserved power thanks to unearned privilege is a bitter pill to swallow. But if democracy really is at stake, then the only reasonable course of action is to act like it and campaign a bit more like Tammy Baldwin and a bit less the way that comes most naturally to Democrats.
New goal: 25,000
In the spring, we launched a program asking readers for financial contributions to help keep Vox free for everyone, and last week, we set a goal of reaching 20,000 contributors. Well, you helped us blow past that. Today, we are extending that goal to 25,000. Millions turn to Vox each month to understand an increasingly chaotic world — from what is happening with the USPS to the coronavirus crisis to what is, quite possibly, the most consequential presidential election of our lifetimes. Even when the economy and the news advertising market recovers, your support will be a critical part of sustaining our resource-intensive work — and helping everyone make sense of an increasingly chaotic world. Contribute today from as little as $3.


vox--2020-08-24--How Trump let Covid-19 win

How Trump let Covid-19 win

As America , and even his own administration , woke up to the threat of Covid-19 , President Donald Trump still didn ’ t seem to get it .
Within weeks of suggesting that people social distance in mid-March , the president went on national TV to argue that the US could reopen by Easter Sunday in April .
“ You ’ ll have packed churches all over our country , ” Trump said in March .
“ I think it ’ ll be a beautiful time.
” The US wasn ’ t able to fully and safely reopen in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to fully and safely reopen in August .
The virus rages on , affecting every aspect of American life , from the economy to education to entertainment .
Nearly 180,000 Americans are dead .
Schools are closing down again after botched attempts to reopen , with outbreaks in universities and K-12 settings .
America now has one of the worst ongoing epidemics in the world , with the most daily new cases and deaths , after controlling for population , among the developed countries .
As fall approaches , in-person teaching is back @ @ @ @ @ @ @ returning to baseball stadiums in Taiwan and South Korea , and dine-in reservations have jumped to previous years ’ levels in Germany — while many states in the US are scaling back their already limited reopenings as the disease spreads .
The Easter episode , experts said , exemplified the magical thinking that has animated Trump ’ s response to the Covid-19 pandemic before and after the novel coronavirus reached the US .
It ’ s a problem that ’ s continued through August — with Trump and those under him recently denying @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , falsely claiming rising cases were a result of more tests .
With every day , week , and month that the Trump administration has tried to spin a positive story , it ’ s also resisted stronger action , allowing the epidemic to drag on .
A pandemic was always likely to be a challenge for the US , given the country ’ s large size , fragmented federalist system , and libertarian streak .
The public health system was already underfunded and underprepared for a major disease outbreak before Trump .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ these kinds of problems too .
Public health systems are notoriously underfunded worldwide .
Australia , Canada , and Germany , among others , also have federalist systems of government , individualistic societies , or both .
Instead , experts said , it ’ s Trump ’ s leadership , or lack thereof , that really sets the US apart .
Before Covid-19 , Trump and his administration undermined preparedness — eliminating a White House office set up by the previous administration to combat pandemics , making cuts across other key parts of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ cuts .
Once the coronavirus arrived , Trump downplayed the threat , suggesting it would soon disappear “ like a miracle.
” The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention ( CDC ) took weeks to fix botched tests , and the administration actively abdicated control of issues to local , state , and private actors .
“ There was a failure to realize what an efficiently spreading respiratory virus for which we have no vaccine and no antiviral meant , ” Amesh Adalja , a senior scholar at the Johns Hopkins Center for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ From the very beginning , that minimization … set a tone that reverberated from the highest levels of government to what the average person believes about the virus.
” A few other developed countries — including Belgium , France , and Italy — were caught off-guard by the Covid-19 pandemic and were hit hard early , suffering massive early outbreaks with enormous death tolls .
But after those outbreaks , these countries and those around them generally took Covid-19 seriously : implementing lengthy and strict lockdowns , widespread testing and contact tracing , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ about the virus .
The US did not , even after an outbreak spiraled out of control in New York .
It was this failure to act even after a major epidemic , and a continued failure to implement stronger measures as other large outbreaks occurred , that makes the US unique .
“ If George W. Bush had been president , if John McCain had been president , if Mitt Romney had been president , this would have looked very different , ” Ashish Jha , the faculty director of the Harvard @ @ @ @ @ @ @ emphasizing the failure to act after Covid-19 hit the US hard was a phenomenon exclusive to Trump .
Experts worry that things will again get worse : Colder weather is coming , forcing people back into risky indoor environments .
So are holiday celebrations , when families and friends will gather from across the country .
Another flu season looms .
And Trump , experts lamented , is still not ready to do much , if anything , about it .
The White House disputes the criticisms .
Spokesperson Sarah Matthews claimed Trump @ @ @ @ @ @ @ coronavirus response ” that followed experts ’ advice , boosted testing rates , delivered equipment to health care workers , and remains focused on expediting a vaccine .
The US wasn ’ t prepared for a pandemic — and Trump made it worse During the 2014 Ebola outbreak , President Barack Obama ’ s administration realized that the US wasn ’ t prepared for a pandemic .
Jeremy Konyndyk , who served in the Obama administration ’ s Ebola response , said he “ came away from that experience just completely horrified at @ @ @ @ @ @ @ more dangerous than Ebola , ” which has a high fatality rate but did not spread easily in the US and other developed nations .
The Obama administration responded by setting up the White House National Security Council ’ s Directorate for Global Health Security and Biodefense , which was meant to coordinate the many agencies , from the CDC to the Department of Health and Human Services to the Pentagon , involved in contagion response .
But when John Bolton became Trump ’ s national security adviser in 2018 , he moved @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 2018 , Bolton fired Tom Bossert , then the homeland security adviser , who , the Washington Post reported , “ had called for a comprehensive biodefense strategy against pandemics and biological attacks.
” Then in May , Bolton let go the head of pandemic response , Rear Adm. Timothy Ziemer , and dismantled his global health security team .
Bolton claimed that the cuts were needed to streamline the National Security Council , and the team was never replaced .
In the months before the coronavirus arrived , the Trump administration also @ @ @ @ @ @ @ detect outbreaks in China and another program , called Predict , that tracked emerging pathogens around the globe , including coronaviruses .
And Trump has repeatedly called for further cuts to the CDC and National Institutes of Health , both on the front lines of the federal response to disease outbreaks ; the administration stood by the proposed cuts after the pandemic began , though Congress has largely rejected the proposals .
The Trump administration pushed for the cuts despite multiple , clear warnings that the US was not prepared for a pandemic @ @ @ @ @ @ @ disaster preparedness from the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security and Nuclear Threat Initiative had the US at the top of the list , but still warned that “ no country is fully prepared for epidemics or pandemics.
” A federal simulation prior to the Covid-19 pandemic also predicted problems the US eventually faced , from a collapse in coordination and communication to shortages in personal protective equipment for health care workers .
Bill Gates , who ’ s dedicated much of his Microsoft fortune to fighting infectious diseases , warned in 2017 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ epidemic , like a flu epidemic , would be phenomenal because all the supply chains would break down .
There ’ d be a lot of panic .
Many of our systems would be overloaded.
” Gates told the Washington Post in 2018 he had raised his concerns in meetings with Trump .
But the president , it ’ s now clear , didn ’ t listen .
There are limitations to better preparedness , too .
“ If you take what assets the United States had and you use them poorly the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ t matter what the report says , ” Adalja said , referring to the 2019 ranking .
“ If you don ’ t have the leadership to execute , then it makes no difference.
” On February 25 , Nancy Messonnier , director of the CDC ’ s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases , told reporters that Americans should prepare for community spread of the coronavirus , social distancing , and the possibility that “ disruption to everyday life might be severe.
” Six months later , Messonnier ’ s comments @ @ @ @ @ @ @ briefing , she was pushed out of the spotlight — though she ’ s still on the job , her press appearances have been limited — reportedly because her negative outlook angered Trump .
( Messonnier didn ’ t respond to a request for comment . )
The CDC as a whole has been pushed to the sidelines with her .
The agency is supposed to play a leading role in America ’ s fight against pandemics , but it ’ s invisible in press briefings led by Trump , Vice President Mike @ @ @ @ @ @ @ like Anthony Fauci and Deborah Birx who are not part of the organization .
CDC Director Robert Redfield acknowledged as much : “ You may see [ the CDC ] as invisible on the nightly news , but it ’ s sure not invisible in terms of operationalizing this response.
” University of Michigan medical historian Howard Markel put it in blunter terms , telling me the US has “ benched one of the greatest fighting forces against infectious diseases ever created.
” Meanwhile , the president downplayed the virus .
The day @ @ @ @ @ @ @ said that “ you have 15 people [ with the coronavirus ] , and the 15 within a couple of days is going to be down to close to zero.
” This type of magical thinking appears to have driven Trump ’ s response to Covid-19 from the start , from his conviction that cases would disappear to his proclamation that the country would reopen by Easter .
Trump has long said he believes in the power of positive thinking .
“ I ’ ve been given a lot of credit for positive @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Jonathan Swan during a wide-ranging discussion about Covid-19 in July .
“ But I also think about downside , because only a fool doesn ’ t. ” Pressed further , he added , “ I think you have to have a positive outlook .
Otherwise , you have nothing.
” The concern , experts said , is the signal this messaging sends .
It tells the staffers under Trump that this issue isn ’ t a priority , and things are fine as they are .
And it suggests to the public that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ they don ’ t have to make annoying , uncomfortable changes to their lives , from physical distancing to wearing masks .
It creates the perfect conditions for a slow and inadequate response .
The CDC botched the initial test kits it sent out , and it took weeks to fix the errors .
The Food and Drug Administration ( FDA ) also took weeks to approve other tests from private labs .
As supply problems came up with testing kits , swabs , reagents , machines , and more , the Trump @ @ @ @ @ @ @ it ’ s up to local , state , and private actors to solve the problems and that the federal government is merely a “ supplier of last resort.
” South Korea , which has been widely praised for its response to coronavirus , tested more than 66,000 people within a week of the first community transmission within its borders .
By comparison , the US took roughly three weeks to complete that many tests — in a country with more than six times the population .
Asked about testing problems in March @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ t take responsibility at all.
” In June , Trump claimed that “ testing is a double-edged sword , ” adding that “ when you do testing to that extent , you ’ re going to find more people — you ’ re going to find more cases .
So I said to my people , ‘ Slow the testing down , please.
’ ” The testing shortfall was a problem few thought possible in the wealthiest , most powerful nation on earth .
“ We all kind of knew if a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ it wasn ’ t going to be good , ” Saskia Popescu , an infectious disease epidemiologist , told me .
“ But I don ’ t think anyone ever anticipated it could be this bad.
” Trump also consistently undermined the advice of experts , including those in his administration .
When the CDC released reopening guidelines , Trump effectively told states to ignore the guidance and reopen prematurely — to “ LIBERATE ” their economies .
When the CDC recommended masks for public use , Trump described masking as a personal @ @ @ @ @ @ @ public for months , and even suggested that people wear masks to spite him .
( He ’ s changed his tone recently . )
While federal agencies and researchers work diligently to find effective treatments for Covid-19 , Trump has promoted unproven and even dangerous approaches , at one point advocating for injecting bleach .
The most aggressive steps Trump took to halt the virus — travel restrictions on China and Europe imposed in February and March , respectively — were likely too limited and too late .
And to the extent @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ t properly used .
The federal government is the only entity that can solve many of the problems the country is facing .
If testing supply shortfalls in Maine are slowing down testing in Arizona or Florida , the federal government has the resources and the legal jurisdiction to quickly act .
Local or state offices looking for advice on how to react to a national crisis will typically turn to the federal government for guidance .
But the inaction , contradictions , and counterproductive messaging created a vacuum in federal leadership @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s prediction that coronavirus cases would go down to zero , cases in the US grew to more than 160,000 .
They now stand at more than 5.5 million total reported cases .
Months into the pandemic , Trump has continued to flail After the initial wave of coronavirus cases began to subside in April , the White House stopped its daily press briefings on the topic .
By June , Trump ’ s tweets and public appearances focused on Black Lives Matter protests and the 2020 election — part of what Politico @ @ @ @ @ @ @ discussions with administration officials , as an “ apparent eagerness to change the subject.
” Then another wave of coronavirus infections hit beginning in June , peaking with more than 70,000 daily new cases , a new high , and more than 1,000 daily deaths .
America ’ s response to the initial rise of infections was slow and inadequate .
But other developed countries also struggled with the sudden arrival of a disease brand new to humans .
The second surge , experts said , was when the scope of Trump ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ pushing states to open prematurely , failing to set up national infrastructure for testing and tracing , and downplaying masks , Trump put many states under enormous pressure to reopen before the virus was under control nationwide .
Many quickly did — and over time suffered the consequences .
Rather than create a new strategy , Trump and his administration returned to magical thinking .
Pence , head of the White House ’ s coronavirus task force , wrote an op-ed titled “ There Isn ’ t a Coronavirus ‘ Second Wave ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to increase again .
Internally , some of Trump ’ s experts seemed to believe this ; Birx , once a widely respected infectious disease expert , reportedly told the president and White House staff that the US was likely following the path of Italy : Cases hit a huge high but would steadily decline .
Trump trotted out optimistic , but misleading , claims and statistics .
He told Axios reporter Jonathan Swan in July that the US was doing well because it had few deaths relative to the number of cases @ @ @ @ @ @ @ clarified he was asking about deaths as a proportion of population — a standard metric for an epidemic ’ s deadliness — Trump said , “ You can ’ t do that.
” He gave no further explanation .
Seemingly believing its coronavirus mission accomplished , the Trump administration , the New York Times reported , moved to relinquish responsibility for the pandemic and leave the response to the states — in what the Times called “ perhaps one of the greatest failures of presidential leadership in generations.
” “ The biggest problem @ @ @ @ @ @ @ not a US response , ” Konyndyk , now a senior policy fellow at the Center for Global Development , told me .
“ There is a New York response .
There ’ s a Florida response .
There ’ s a Montana response .
There ’ s a California response .
There ’ s a Michigan response .
There ’ s a Georgia response .
But there is not a US response.
” When the coronavirus first hit the US , the country struggled with testing enough people , contact tracing , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ as physical distancing and masking , delivering enough equipment for health care workers , and hospital capacity .
In the second wave , these problems have by and large repeated themselves .
Consider testing : It has significantly improved , but some parts of the country have reported weeks-long delays in getting test results , and the percentage of tests coming back positive has risen above the recommended 5 percent in most states — a sign of insufficient testing .
The system once again appeared to collapse under the weight of too much @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to solve continuing problems with supply chains .
Months after Congress approved billions of dollars in spending to deal with testing problems , the Trump administration has not spent much of it .
Mask-wearing also remains polarized .
While surveys show that the vast majority of Americans have worn masks in the past week , there ’ s a strong partisan divide .
According to Gallup ’ s surveys , 99 percent of Democrats say they ’ ve gone out with a mask in the previous week , compared to 80 percent of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , the New York Times estimated that the percentage of people using masks in public can fall to as low as 20 , 10 , or the single digits — even in some communities that have been hit hard .
Anti-mask protests have popped up around the country .
Testing and mask-wearing are two of the strongest weapons against Covid-19 .
Testing , paired with contact tracing , lets officials track the scale of an outbreak , isolate those who are sick , quarantine their contacts , and deploy community-wide efforts as necessary @ @ @ @ @ @ @ demonstrated in Germany , New Zealand , and South Korea , among others .
There ’ s also growing scientific evidence supporting widespread and even mandated mask use , with experts citing it as crucial to the success of nations like Japan and Slovakia in containing the virus .
It ’ s not that other developed nations did everything perfectly .
New Zealand has contained Covid-19 without widespread masking , and Japan has done so without widespread testing .
But both took at least one aggressive action the US hasn ’ t .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ many countries , the thing that distinguishes the countries doing well is they took something seriously , ” Kirsten Bibbins-Domingo , an epidemiologist at the University of California San Francisco , told me .
One explanation for the shortfalls in the US response is Trump ’ s obsession with getting America , particularly the economy , back to normal in the short term , seemingly before Election Day this November .
It ’ s why he ’ s called on governors to “ LIBERATE ” states .
It ’ s why he ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ can ’ t be worse than the problem itself.
” It ’ s one reason , perhaps , he resisted embracing even very minor lifestyle changes such as wearing a mask .
The reality is that life will only get closer to normal once the virus is suppressed .
That ’ s what ’ s working for other countries that are more earnestly reopening , from Taiwan to Germany .
It ’ s what a preliminary study on the 1918 flu found , as US cities that emerged economically stronger back then took @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the short term but better kept infections and deaths down overall .
“ Dead people don ’ t shop , ” Jade Pagkas-Bather , an infectious diseases expert and doctor at the University of Chicago , told me .
“ They can ’ t stimulate economies.
” The window to avert further catastrophe may be closing As cases and deaths have climbed , and as the November election nears , Trump has once again tried to spring back into action .
He ’ s brought back his coronavirus press conferences .
He ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ suggesting that it ’ s Americans ’ patriotic duty to wear one ( although not always doing so himself ) .
But he still seems resistant to focusing too much on the issue , recently changing the subject to former Vice President Joe Biden ’ s supposed plans to destroy the “ Suburban Lifestyle Dream.
” He continues to downplay the crisis , saying on July 28 , as daily Covid-19 deaths once again topped 1,000 , “ It is what it is.
” So while combating Covid-19 aligns with Trump ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ top priority ) , he and his administration continue to flounder .
And White House officials stand by their response so far , continually pushing blame to local and state governments .
“ There ’ s no national plan to combat the worst pandemic that we ’ ve seen in a century , ” Jen Kates , director of global health and HIV policy at the Kaiser Family Foundation , told me .
The recent surge of Covid-19 has calmed now , although cases across the US have so far flattened out at @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in the previous wave .
That ’ s likely a result of cities , counties , states , and the public taking action as the federal government doesn ’ t .
Experts now worry that the country could be setting itself up for another wave of Covid-19 .
Schools reopening across the country could create new vectors of transmission .
The winter will force many Americans indoors to avoid the cold , while being outdoors in the open air can hinder the spread of the disease .
Families and friends will come together @ @ @ @ @ @ @ holidays , creating new possibilities for superspreading events .
And in the background , another flu season looms — which could limit health care capacity further just as Covid-19 cases spike .
“ The virus spreads when a large number of people gather indoors , ” Jha said .
“ That ’ s going to happen more in December than it did in July — and July was a pretty awful month.
” There are reasons to believe it might not get so bad .
Since so many people in the US have @ @ @ @ @ @ @ element of population immunity in some places as long as people continue social distancing and masking .
After seeing two large waves of the coronavirus across the country , the public could act cautiously and slow the disease , even if local , state , and federal governments don ’ t .
Social distancing due to Covid-19 could keep the spread of the flu down too ( which seemed to happen in the Southern Hemisphere ) .
But the federal government could do much more to push the nation in the right direction @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to provide clear , consistent guidance and deploy stronger policies , encouraging people to take Covid-19 as a serious threat — now , not later .
“ I ’ m really concerned that the window might be closing , ” Kates said .
Without that federal action , the US could remain stuck in a cycle of ups and downs with Covid-19 , forcing the public to double down on social distancing and other measures with each new wave .
As cases and deaths continue to climb , the country will become even @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of the developed world inches back to normal .
And the “ beautiful time ” Trump imagined for Easter will remain out of reach .
In the spring , we launched a program asking readers for financial contributions to help keep Vox free for everyone , and last week , we set a goal of reaching 20,000 contributors .
Well , you helped us blow past that .
Today , we are extending that goal to 25,000 .
Millions turn to Vox each month to understand an increasingly chaotic world — from what @ @ @ @ @ @ @ coronavirus crisis to what is , quite possibly , the most consequential presidential election of our lifetimes .
Even when the economy and the news advertising market recovers , your support will be a critical part of sustaining our resource-intensive work — and helping everyone make sense of an increasingly chaotic world .
Contribute today from as little as $ 3 .

As America, and even his own administration, woke up to the threat of Covid-19, President Donald Trump still didn’t seem to get it. Within weeks of suggesting that people social distance in mid-March, the president went on national TV to argue that the US could reopen by Easter Sunday in April. “You’ll have packed churches all over our country,” Trump said in March. “I think it’ll be a beautiful time.”
The US wasn’t able to fully and safely reopen in April. It isn’t able to fully and safely reopen in September.
The virus rages on, affecting every aspect of American life, from the economy to education to entertainment. More than 200,000 Americans are confirmed dead. Many schools are closing down again after botched attempts to reopen — with outbreaks in universities and K-12 settings. America now has one of the worst ongoing epidemics in the world, with the second most daily new Covid-19 deaths among developed nations, surpassed only by Spain.
America does not have the most Covid-19 deaths per capita of any rich country, but it’s doing worse than most. The US reports about seven times the Covid-19 deaths as the median developed country, ranking in the bottom 20 percent for coronavirus deaths among wealthy nations. Tens of thousands of lives have been needlessly lost as a result: If America had the same death rate as, for example, Canada, about 120,000 more Americans would likely be alive today.
The Easter episode, experts said, exemplified the magical thinking that has animated Trump’s response to the Covid-19 pandemic before and after the novel coronavirus reached the US. It’s a problem that’s continued through September — with Trump and those under him flat-out denying the existence of a resurgence in Covid-19, falsely claiming rising cases were a result of more tests. With every day, week, and month that the Trump administration has tried to spin a positive story, it’s also resisted stronger action, allowing the epidemic to drag on.
A pandemic was always likely to be a challenge for the US, given the country’s large size, fragmented federalist system, and libertarian streak. The public health system was already underfunded and underprepared for a major disease outbreak before Trump.
Yet many other developed countries dealt with these kinds of problems too. Public health systems are notoriously underfunded worldwide. Australia, Canada, and Germany, among others, also have federalist systems of government, individualistic societies, or both — and they’ve all fared much better.
Instead, experts said, it’s Trump’s leadership, or lack thereof, that really sets the US apart. Before Covid-19, Trump and his administration undermined preparedness — eliminating a White House office set up by the previous administration to combat pandemics, making cuts across other key parts of the federal government, and proposing further cuts.
Once the coronavirus arrived, Trump downplayed the threat, suggesting that it would soon disappear “like a miracle.” The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) took weeks to fix botched tests, and the administration actively abdicated control of issues to local, state, and private actors.
“There was a failure to realize what an efficiently spreading respiratory virus for which we have no vaccine and no antiviral meant,” Amesh Adalja, a senior scholar at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security, told me. “From the very beginning, that minimization … set a tone that reverberated from the highest levels of government to what the average person believes about the virus.”
Several developed countries — including Belgium, France, Italy, and Spain — were caught off-guard by the pandemic and were hit hard early, suffering massive early outbreaks with enormous death tolls. But most developed countries took these crises seriously: adopting lengthy and strict lockdowns, widespread testing and contact tracing, masking mandates, and consistent public messaging about the virus. (Though parts of Europe are now seeing second waves, seemingly because they prematurely relaxed social distancing measures.)
America did not take the steps necessary, even after an outbreak spiraled out of control in New York. So the US suffered a wave of huge cases over the summer that other developed nations generally avoided, leading to new and continued surges in both cases and deaths. And while other developed countries have seen spikes in cases as fall neared, America also has seen cases start to rise once again.
“If George W. Bush had been president, if John McCain had been president, if Mitt Romney had been president, this would have looked very different,” Ashish Jha, dean of the Brown University School of Public Health, told me, emphasizing the failure to act after Covid-19 hit the US hard was a phenomenon driven by Trump.
Experts worry that things will again get worse: Colder weather is coming, forcing people back into risky indoor environments. So are holiday celebrations, when families and friends will gather from across the country. Another flu season looms. And Trump, experts lamented, is still not ready to do much, if anything, about it.
The White House disputes the criticisms. Spokesperson Sarah Matthews claimed Trump “has led an historic, whole-of-America coronavirus response” that followed experts’ advice, boosted testing rates, delivered equipment to health care workers, and remains focused on expediting a vaccine.
She added, “This strong leadership will continue.”
The US wasn’t prepared for a pandemic — and Trump made it worse
During the 2014 Ebola outbreak, President Barack Obama’s administration realized that the US wasn’t prepared for a pandemic. Jeremy Konyndyk, who served in the Obama administration’s Ebola response, said he “came away from that experience just completely horrified at how unready we would be for something more dangerous than Ebola,” which has a high fatality rate but did not spread easily in the US and other developed nations.
The Obama administration responded by setting up the White House National Security Council’s Directorate for Global Health Security and Biodefense, which was meant to coordinate the many agencies, from the CDC to the Department of Health and Human Services to the Pentagon, involved in contagion response.
But when John Bolton became Trump’s national security adviser in 2018, he moved to disband the office. In April 2018, Bolton fired Tom Bossert, then the homeland security adviser, who, the Washington Post reported, “had called for a comprehensive biodefense strategy against pandemics and biological attacks.” Then in May, Bolton let go the head of pandemic response, Rear Adm. Timothy Ziemer, and dismantled his global health security team. Bolton claimed that the cuts were needed to streamline the National Security Council, and the team was never replaced.
In the months before the coronavirus arrived, the Trump administration also cut a public health position meant to detect outbreaks in China and another program, called Predict, that tracked emerging pathogens around the globe, including coronaviruses. And Trump has repeatedly called for further cuts to the CDC and National Institutes of Health, both on the front lines of the federal response to disease outbreaks; the administration stood by the proposed cuts after the pandemic began, though Congress has largely rejected the proposals.
The Trump administration pushed for the cuts despite multiple, clear warnings that the US was not prepared for a pandemic. A 2019 ranking of countries’ disaster preparedness from the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security and Nuclear Threat Initiative had the US at the top of the list, but still warned that “no country is fully prepared for epidemics or pandemics.”
A federal simulation prior to the Covid-19 pandemic also predicted problems the US eventually faced, from a collapse in coordination and communication to shortages in personal protective equipment for health care workers.
Bill Gates, who’s dedicated much of his Microsoft fortune to fighting infectious diseases, warned in 2017, “The impact of a huge epidemic, like a flu epidemic, would be phenomenal because all the supply chains would break down. There’d be a lot of panic. Many of our systems would be overloaded.”
Gates told the Washington Post in 2018 he had raised his concerns in meetings with Trump. But the president, it’s now clear, didn’t listen.
There are limitations to better preparedness, too. “If you take what assets the United States had and you use them poorly the way we did, it doesn’t matter what the report says,” Adalja said, referring to the 2019 ranking. “If you don’t have the leadership to execute, then it makes no difference.”
As Covid-19 spread, Trump downplayed the threat
On February 25, Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, told reporters that Americans should prepare for community spread of the coronavirus, social distancing, and the possibility that “disruption to everyday life might be severe.”
Six months later, Messonnier’s comments seem prescient. But soon after the briefing, she was pushed out of the spotlight — though she’s still on the job, her press appearances have been limited — reportedly because her negative outlook angered Trump. (Messonnier didn’t respond to a request for comment.)
The CDC as a whole has been pushed to the sidelines with her. The agency is supposed to play a leading role in America’s fight against pandemics, but it’s invisible in press briefings led by Trump, Vice President Mike Pence, advisers, and health officials like Anthony Fauci and Deborah Birx who are not part of the organization. CDC Director Robert Redfield acknowledged as much: “You may see [the CDC] as invisible on the nightly news, but it’s sure not invisible in terms of operationalizing this response.”
University of Michigan medical historian Howard Markel put it in blunter terms, telling me the US has “benched one of the greatest fighting forces against infectious diseases ever created.”
Meanwhile, the president downplayed the virus. The day after Messonnier’s warning, Trump said that “you have 15 people [with the coronavirus], and the 15 within a couple of days is going to be down to close to zero.” This type of magical thinking appears to have driven Trump’s response to Covid-19 from the start, from his conviction that cases would disappear to his proclamation that the country would reopen by Easter.
This was deliberate. As Trump later acknowledged in recorded interviews with journalist Bob Woodward, he knew that the coronavirus was “deadly stuff,” airborne, more dangerous than the flu, and could afflict both the young and old. Yet he deliberately downplayed the threat: “I wanted to always play it down,” he told Woodward on March 19. “I still like playing it down, because I don’t want to create a panic.”
Trump has long said he believes in the power of positive thinking. “I’ve been given a lot of credit for positive thinking,” he told Axios reporter Jonathan Swan during a wide-ranging discussion about Covid-19 in July. “But I also think about downside, because only a fool doesn’t.” Pressed further, he added, “I think you have to have a positive outlook. Otherwise, you have nothing.”
.@jonathanvswan: “Oh, you’re doing death as a proportion of cases. I’m talking about death as a proportion of population. That’s where the U.S. is really bad. Much worse than South Korea, Germany, etc.”@realdonaldtrump: “You can’t do that.”
Swan: “Why can’t I do that?” pic.twitter.com/MStySfkV39 — Axios (@axios) August 4, 2020
The concern, experts said, is the signal this messaging sends. It tells the staffers under Trump that this issue isn’t a priority, and things are fine as they are. And it suggests to the public that the virus is under control, so they don’t have to make annoying, uncomfortable changes to their lives, from physical distancing to wearing masks.
It creates the perfect conditions for a slow and inadequate response.
The CDC botched the initial test kits it sent out, and it took weeks to fix the errors. The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) also took weeks to approve other tests from private labs. As supply problems came up with testing kits, swabs, reagents, machines, and more, the Trump administration resisted taking significant action — claiming it’s up to local, state, and private actors to solve the problems and that the federal government is merely a “supplier of last resort.”
South Korea, which has been widely praised for its response to coronavirus, tested more than 66,000 people within a week of the first community transmission within its borders. By comparison, the US took roughly three weeks to complete that many tests — in a country with more than six times the population.
Asked about testing problems in March, Trump responded, “I don’t take responsibility at all.” In June, Trump claimed that “testing is a double-edged sword,” adding that “when you do testing to that extent, you’re going to find more people — you’re going to find more cases. So I said to my people, ‘Slow the testing down, please.’”
The testing shortfall was a problem few thought possible in the wealthiest, most powerful nation on earth. “We all kind of knew if a biological event hit during this administration, it wasn’t going to be good,” Saskia Popescu, an infectious disease epidemiologist, told me. “But I don’t think anyone ever anticipated it could be this bad.”
Trump also consistently undermined the advice of experts, including those in his administration. When the CDC released reopening guidelines, Trump effectively told states to ignore the guidance and reopen prematurely — to “LIBERATE” their economies. When the CDC recommended masks for public use, Trump described masking as a personal choice, refused to wear one in public for months, and even suggested that people wear masks to spite him. While federal agencies and researchers work diligently to find effective treatments for Covid-19, Trump has promoted unproven and even dangerous approaches, at one point advocating for injecting bleach. Trump’s allies have even held up CDC studies that could contradict the president’s overly optimistic outlook.
The most aggressive steps Trump took to halt the virus — travel restrictions on China and Europe imposed in February and March, respectively — were likely too limited and too late. And to the extent these measures bought time, it wasn’t properly used.
The federal government is the only entity that can solve many of the problems the country is facing. If testing supply shortfalls in Maine are slowing down testing in Arizona or Florida, the federal government has the resources and the legal jurisdiction to quickly act. Local or state offices looking for advice on how to react to a national crisis will typically turn to the federal government for guidance.
But the inaction, contradictions, and counterproductive messaging created a vacuum in federal leadership.
In the months after Trump’s prediction that coronavirus cases would go down to zero, confirmed cases in the US grew to more than 160,000. As of September 22, they stand at more than 6.8 million.
Months into the pandemic, Trump has continued to flail
After the initial wave of coronavirus cases began to subside in April, the White House stopped its daily press briefings on the topic. By June, Trump’s tweets and public appearances focused on Black Lives Matter protests and the 2020 election — part of what Politico reporter Dan Diamond described, based on discussions with administration officials, as an “apparent eagerness to change the subject.”
Then another wave of coronavirus infections hit beginning in June, peaking with more than 70,000 daily new cases, a new high, and more than 1,000 daily deaths.
America’s response to the initial rise of infections was slow and inadequate. But other developed countries also struggled with the sudden arrival of a disease brand new to humans. The second surge, experts said, was when the scope of Trump’s failure became more apparent.
By pushing states to open prematurely, failing to set up national infrastructure for testing and tracing, and downplaying masks, Trump put many states under enormous pressure to reopen before the virus was under control nationwide. Many quickly did — and over time suffered the consequences.
Rather than create a new strategy, Trump and his administration returned to magical thinking. Pence, head of the White House’s coronavirus task force, wrote an op-ed titled “There Isn’t a Coronavirus ‘Second Wave’” in mid-June, as cases started to increase again. Internally, some of Trump’s experts seemed to believe this; Birx, once a widely respected infectious disease expert, reportedly told the president and White House staff that the US was likely following the path of Italy: Cases hit a huge high but would steadily decline.
Trump trotted out optimistic, but misleading, claims and statistics. He told Axios reporter Jonathan Swan in July that the US was doing well because it had few deaths relative to the number of cases. When Swan, clearly baffled, clarified he was asking about deaths as a proportion of population — a standard metric for an epidemic’s deadliness — Trump said, “You can’t do that.” He gave no further explanation.
Seemingly believing its coronavirus mission accomplished, the Trump administration, the New York Times reported, moved to relinquish responsibility for the pandemic and leave the response to the states — in what the Times called “perhaps one of the greatest failures of presidential leadership in generations.”
“The biggest problem in the US response is there is not a US response,” Konyndyk, now a senior policy fellow at the Center for Global Development, told me. “There is a New York response. There’s a Florida response. There’s a Montana response. There’s a California response. There’s a Michigan response. There’s a Georgia response. But there is not a US response.”
When the coronavirus first hit the US, the country struggled with testing enough people, contact tracing, getting the public to follow recommendations such as physical distancing and masking, delivering enough equipment for health care workers, and hospital capacity. In the second wave, these problems have by and large repeated themselves.
Consider testing: It has significantly improved, but some parts of the country have reported weeks-long delays in getting test results, and the percentage of tests coming back positive has risen above the recommended 5 percent in most states — a sign of insufficient testing. The system once again appeared to collapse under the weight of too much demand, while the federal government failed to solve continuing problems with supply chains. Months after Congress approved billions of dollars in spending to deal with testing problems, the Trump administration has not spent much of it.
Some of Trump’s people seemed to listen to his calls to slow down testing: On August 24, the CDC updated its guidelines to suggest people exposed to others with Covid-19 don’t necessarily have to get tested — a move for effectively less testing that experts described as “dangerous” and “irresponsible.” Only after weeks of criticism did the CDC back down and, on September 18, once again call for testing people without symptoms.
Mask-wearing also remains polarized. While surveys show that the vast majority of Americans have worn masks in the past week, there’s a strong partisan divide. According to Gallup’s surveys, 99 percent of Democrats say they’ve gone out with a mask in the previous week, compared to 80 percent of Republicans. Leveraging surveys on mask use, the New York Times estimated that the percentage of people using masks in public can fall to as low as 20, 10, or the single digits — even in some communities that have been hit hard. Anti-mask protests have popped up around the country.
Testing and mask-wearing are two of the strongest weapons against Covid-19. Testing, paired with contact tracing, lets officials track the scale of an outbreak, isolate those who are sick, quarantine their contacts, and deploy community-wide efforts as necessary to contain the disease — as successfully demonstrated in Germany, New Zealand, and South Korea, among others. There’s also growing scientific evidence supporting widespread and even mandated mask use, with experts citing it as crucial to the success of nations like Japan and Slovakia in containing the virus.
It’s not that other developed nations did everything perfectly. New Zealand has contained Covid-19 without widespread masking, and Japan has done so without widespread testing. But both took at least one aggressive action the US hasn’t. “While there’s variation across many countries, the thing that distinguishes the countries doing well is they took something seriously,” Kirsten Bibbins-Domingo, an epidemiologist at the University of California San Francisco, told me.
One explanation for the shortfalls in the US response is Trump’s obsession with getting America, particularly the economy, back to normal in the short term, seemingly before Election Day this November. It’s why he’s called on governors to “LIBERATE” states. It’s why he’s repeatedly said that “the Cure can’t be worse than the problem itself.” It’s one reason, perhaps, he resisted embracing even very minor lifestyle changes such as wearing a mask.
The reality is that life will only get closer to normal once the virus is suppressed. That’s what’s working for other countries that are more earnestly reopening, from Taiwan to Germany. It’s what a preliminary study on the 1918 flu found, as US cities that emerged economically stronger back then took more aggressive action that hindered economies in the short term but better kept infections and deaths down overall.
“Dead people don’t shop,” Jade Pagkas-Bather, an infectious diseases expert and doctor at the University of Chicago, told me. “They can’t stimulate economies.”
The window to avert further catastrophe may be closing
As cases and deaths climbed over the summer, and as the November election neared, Trump at times appeared to spring back into action — bringing back coronavirus press conferences and briefly changing his tone on masks (before going back to mocking them).
But Trump still seems resistant to focusing too much on the issue. He’s tried to change the subject to former Vice President Joe Biden’s supposed plans to destroy the “Suburban Lifestyle Dream.” He’s continued to downplay the crisis, saying on July 28, as daily Covid-19 deaths once again topped 1,000, “It is what it is.” His Republican convention continued to diminish the risks of Covid-19 and exaggerate Trump’s successes in fighting the virus. At a campaign rally in Ohio on September 21, Trump claimed the virus “affects virtually nobody.”
So while combating Covid-19 aligns with Trump’s political incentives (it remains Americans’ top priority), he and his administration continue to flounder. And White House officials stand by their response so far, continually pushing blame to local and state governments.
“There’s no national plan to combat the worst pandemic that we’ve seen in a century,” Jen Kates, director of global health and HIV policy at the Kaiser Family Foundation, told me.
The summer surge of Covid-19 has calmed now, although cases across the US flattened out at a much higher level than they were in the spring, likely a result of cities, counties, states, and the public taking action as the federal government didn’t. Still, cases have started to pick back up again.
Experts now worry that the country could be setting itself up for another wave of Covid-19. Schools reopening across the country could create new vectors of transmission. The winter will force many Americans indoors to avoid the cold, while being outdoors in the open air can hinder the spread of the disease. Families and friends will come together from across the country to celebrate the holidays, creating new possibilities for superspreading events. And in the background, another flu season looms — which could limit health care capacity further just as Covid-19 cases spike.
“The virus spreads when a large number of people gather indoors,” Jha said. “That’s going to happen more in December than it did in July — and July was a pretty awful month.”
There are reasons to believe it might not get so bad. Since so many people in the US have gotten sick, that could offer some element of population immunity in some places as long as people continue social distancing and masking. After seeing two large waves of the coronavirus across the country, the public could act cautiously and slow the disease, even if local, state, and federal governments don’t. Social distancing due to Covid-19 could keep the spread of the flu down too (which seemed to happen in the Southern Hemisphere).
But the federal government could do much more to push the nation in the right direction. Experts have urged the federal government to provide clear, consistent guidance and deploy stronger policies, encouraging people to take Covid-19 as a serious threat — now, not later.
“I’m really concerned that the window might be closing,” Kates said.
Without that federal action, the US could remain stuck in a cycle of ups and downs with Covid-19, forcing the public to double down on social distancing and other measures with each new wave. As cases and deaths continue to climb, America will become even more of an outlier as much of the developed world inches back to normal. And the “beautiful time” Trump imagined for Easter will remain out of reach.