vox--2020-09-28--Experts say Covid-19 cases are likely about to surge

The surge of Covid-19 cases and deaths in America over the summer resulted from a toxic mix of factors : states reopening , lockdown fatigue , and a season typically filled with vacations and holidays like Memorial Day and the Fourth of July .
People gathered and celebrated indoors — at bars , restaurants , and friends and family ’ s homes .
Millions of people got sick , and tens of thousands died .
This fall , experts worry it will all happen again : States are rolling back restrictions , people are eager to get back to normal @ @ @ @ @ @ @ up .
America may be on the verge of repeating the same mistakes , which would risk yet another surge in the Covid-19 epidemic .
Coronavirus cases have already trended up since mid-September .
On September 12 , the US hit a recent low in its seven-day case average of around 35,000 .
As of September 26 , it was back up to almost 45,000 .
The surge doesn ’ t seem to be driven by any one particular state — although some , like the Dakotas , are doing quite badly — @ @ @ @ @ @ @ country all at once .
( Increased testing capacity is likely detecting more cases , too . )
Part of the problem is America never really suppressed its Covid-19 cases to begin with .
Think of a disease epidemic like a forest fire : It ’ s going to be really difficult to contain the virus when there are still flames raging in parts of the forest and small embers practically everywhere .
The country always risks a full blaze with each step toward reopening and with each failure to take precautions seriously @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the state reopened bars and , more recently , restaurants , despite the high risk of these indoor spaces .
The last time Florida opened bars , in June , experts said the establishments were largely to blame for the state ’ s massive Covid-19 outbreak in the summer .
As Florida reopens now , it has roughly two to three times the number of Covid-19 cases that it had in early June , and its test positivity rate suggests it ’ s still likely missing a lot of cases .
The state @ @ @ @ @ @ @ recent fire is nowhere near extinguished .
This is , in effect , what much of the country is doing now as it rushes to reopens schools , particularly colleges and universities , and risky indoor spaces .
Coupled with recent Labor Day celebrations , experts worry that ’ s already leading to a new surge in Covid-19 cases .
President Donald Trump , for his part , has encouraged rapid reopenings .
From his “ LIBERATE ” tweets in the spring to his recent demands that schools reopen , Trump has pushed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to normal even as the coronavirus keeps spreading and killing people in the US .
The fall and winter threaten to make things much worse .
Schools will continue to reopen .
The cold in northern parts of America will push people back inside , where the virus has a much easier time spreading than the outdoors .
Families and friends will come together for the holidays .
A flu season could strain the health care system further .
States are once again starting to reopen more widely , as officials face pressure @ @ @ @ @ @ @ colder temperatures make outdoor activities less feasible .
Experts worry that Americans as a whole will get even more fatigued with social distancing , now that the country is more than six months into its battle against Covid-19 .
“ It ’ s less excusable this time , ” Crystal Watson , senior scholar at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security , told me .
“ We have an example of what happens when we reopen these types of businesses for indoor activities.
” The good news is there ’ s still @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , and the country as a whole could take social distancing seriously again .
They could require masks where they aren ’ t already mandated .
They could close bars and restaurants , supporting these businesses with a bailout , to prioritize keeping K-12 schools open while reducing other risks .
Colleges and universities could ease demands for in-person teaching or at least embrace aggressive testing-and-tracing measures to mitigate the risks of causing further Covid-19 outbreaks .
Without these steps , the fall and winter outbreaks could end up worse than the summer @ @ @ @ @ @ @ could mean not just more infections and deaths but yet another setback in America ’ s hopes of getting parts of life closer back to normal .
“ If you do things the right way , you can do them , ” Cedric Dark , an emergency medicine physician at the Baylor College of Medicine , told me .
“ If you do them the wrong way , then you ’ re going to get cases.
” We keep making the same mistakes After the spring outbreaks hit the Northeast of the US @ @ @ @ @ @ @ by conservative states like Arizona , Florida , and Texas , moved forward with aggressive reopenings .
The problem , experts said , is many of these places never suppressed their Covid-19 outbreaks .
As epidemiologist Pia MacDonald at RTI International told me at the time , many states “ never got to flat.
” Case counts continued to climb , and states continued to reopen anyway .
This created an environment that made it much easier for Covid-19 to spread .
If there ’ s already some community transmission going on , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ be more likely that one person will infect another .
Add more spaces in which infections are very likely — particularly close indoor spaces like bars and restaurants — and that risk can be increased dramatically .
Today , the US seems to be heading in the same direction .
While cases have fallen overall since late July , they plateaued at — and recently started rising from — a point that was still higher than the peak of Covid-19 cases in the spring ( partly , but likely not entirely , attributable @ @ @ @ @ @ @ states are moving forward with reopening once again .
So MacDonald is now repeating the same thing she told me this summer : “ We never got to low enough levels [ of Covid-19 ] to start with in most places.
” Of particular interest is indoor dining at restaurants and bars , which are reopening at varying levels across the country .
Experts characterize these settings as perhaps the worst imaginable spaces for Covid-19 spread : People are close together for long periods of time ; they can ’ t wear masks @ @ @ @ @ @ @ air can ’ t dilute the virus like it can outdoors ; and alcohol could lead people to drop their guards further .
It was a recognition of all these risks that led many states to scale back and close indoor dining and bars during their summer outbreaks .
This time , though , there ’ s another major variable : Schools are reopening .
Some places have even reopened , or set plans to reopen , schools alongside bars or indoor dining — making it hard to separate the effects of either @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , there have been reports of outbreaks in K-12 settings , where students and teachers can potentially transmit the coronavirus to each other in the classroom .
But there ’ s still a lot we don ’ t know about how younger kids , particularly in elementary schools , spread the virus .
Some experts raised graver concerns about colleges and universities .
Students in these institutions aren ’ t just potentially spreading the coronavirus in their classrooms , although that ’ s likely happening to some degree .
They ’ re also @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and indoor restaurants , partying at dorms , and drinking a lot more than they should .
“ College kids are college kids , ” Carlos del Rio , executive associate dean of the Emory University School of Medicine , told me .
“ That ’ s what I always tell every university president I talk to : You can make all the plans you want , but at the end of the day , it ’ s what happens outside your plans that matters.
” The good news , for now , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ will skew younger , and younger people are less likely to suffer major complications , including deaths , from Covid-19 .
That helps explain , along with general improvements in treatment , why daily Covid-19 deaths have still trended down since August ( although they ’ re still at more than 700 a day in the US ) .
But young people can still get seriously ill and die from the coronavirus — and if enough of them get infected , that could show up in higher death tolls eventually .
Even if @ @ @ @ @ @ @ people will likely interact with their teachers , parents , and grandparents at some point , potentially infecting them .
That could produce yet another outcome that would look similar to the summer : The outbreaks started among young groups first but eventually spread to older populations who were more susceptible to illness and death .
After the summer surges , Brown University School of Public Health dean Ashish Jha told me , “ I was like , ‘ Okay , now we ’ ve all been through this — every part of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ West , the Midwest , the Northeast .
There ’ s no denialism anymore that will work , because there ’ s been this long denial while it ’ s been there but not here.
’ ” Yet , he said , “ we ’ re starting to see this again.
” He added , “ I , at this point , feel like I clearly no longer understand why our country can ’ t learn its lessons and why we keep repeating the same mistakes.
” The fall and winter are coming @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the fall and winter would lead to more outbreaks , citing , as one contributor , the reopening of schools .
That seems to be happening now , as cases start to creep up nationwide , with reported outbreaks in K-12 schools , colleges , and universities around the US .
But things could still get worse .
People are bound to get more fatigued with social distancing and the pandemic more broadly as time drags on .
As months pass since the last huge wave of Covid-19 in the US , people @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s safe out there .
If that happens , more people could end up going out and putting themselves in dangerous settings , infecting each other along the way .
At the same time , colder temperatures , particularly in the northern parts of the US , will more likely push people indoors , where the virus is much more likely to spread thanks to poor ventilation .
( One upside : This could have the opposite effect in southern parts of the country , where temperatures will get less unbearably hot @ @ @ @ @ @ @ more tolerable . )
As Thanksgiving rolls around , followed by Christmas , Hanukkah , and New Year ’ s , families and friends will likely come together from around the country .
That includes college and university students , who could come home from Covid-19 hot spots back in their dorms or classrooms .
If you put this all together , there ’ s a real risk of a truly nationwide Covid-19 outbreak .
As people come together from all over the country and return to home and school , they risk @ @ @ @ @ @ @ borders .
That could result in a much more dispersed — and perhaps larger — coronavirus epidemic than the US has seen so far .
“ People will bring this back during Thanksgiving , during Christmas , during winter break , ” Dark said .
“ This is a disease that has an incubation period of up to two weeks .
So it ’ s not really safe to say , ‘ Okay , I ’ m going to come home , and come back.
’ … By the time you develop symptoms @ @ @ @ @ @ @ parents.
” On top of all that , another flu season this fall and winter could strain health care systems , hindering hospitals ’ abilities to treat Covid-19 patients and potentially contributing to more deaths .
There are reasons to think it won ’ t get so bad .
Maybe since so many people have already gotten sick in the US , there will be enough community immunity , as long as there ’ s enough social distancing and masking , to mitigate spread .
Maybe people won ’ t ease up on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in the US .
Perhaps social distancing and masking for Covid-19 will hold off another flu season , as seemed to happen in the Southern Hemisphere .
But there ’ s a risk .
And the numbers are already heading in the wrong direction .
“ The next number in the fall is likely going to shoot way up , ” Michael Osterholm , director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy , told me .
“ Likely well beyond 65,000 , 70,000 , ” the summer ’ s previous peak @ @ @ @ @ @ @ going to be the biggest spike of all.
” We still have time to act None of this set in stone .
Experts told me again and again that the US still has time to act before it sees a repeat of the summer or worse .
None of the ideas to prevent all of this are shocking or new .
They ’ re all things people have heard before : More testing and contact tracing to isolate people who are infected , get their close contacts to quarantine , and deploy broader @ @ @ @ @ @ @ including mandates in the 16 states that still don ’ t have one .
More careful , phased reopenings .
This is what ’ s worked in other countries , from Germany to South Korea to New Zealand , to contain outbreaks .
It ’ s what studies support : As a review of the research published in The Lancet found , “ evidence shows that physical distancing of more than 1 m is highly effective and that face masks are associated with protection , even in non-health-care settings.
” It ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ US .
After suffering huge outbreaks in the spring , states like New York and Massachusetts have suppressed the coronavirus with such policies .
Cities , such as San Francisco , have avoided bad outbreaks entirely with similar efforts .
Even single universities , like the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign campus , have seen promising early results with aggressive testing and tracing .
( The federal government would ideally be in charge of all of this , but Trump has by and large punted the pandemic down to the states to resolve .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ about what causes new cases , ” Nahid Bhadelia , an infectious diseases physician and medical director of the Special Pathogens Unit at Boston University School of Medicine , told me .
“ We have to make trade-off choices.
” Much of the issue comes back to a careful reopening process .
For this , some experts pointed to a budget model .
The goal is to keep the spread of the coronavirus low enough that each new infection doesn ’ t always lead to more infections , making it so over time @ @ @ @ @ @ @ In other words , the goal is to keep the effective reproduction number , or R0 or Rt in scientific parlance , below one .
Within that limited budget of an R0 or Rt lower than one , states can try to fit some places to reopen but not everything .
Everything that reopens will add to the infection rate .
Some places may have tiny , even negligible effects , such as parks .
Some are bigger threats , like bars and indoor dining .
And some may carry potentially high risk @ @ @ @ @ @ @ community for their social benefits , like schools .
The goal , then , is to balance out a reopening — doing it slowly , making it possible to see the effects of each extra step — to make sure outbreaks don ’ t get out of control .
Ultimately , it may require not opening bars or indoor dining , perhaps ever , so schools and other more socially crucial places can open .
At the same time , the government could offer shuttered businesses a bailout or other financial supports .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ , to be able to send children to school , we have to make tough decisions and sacrifices in other areas , ” Jorge Salinas , an epidemiologist at the University of Iowa , told me .
“ We can ’ t have it all.
” Other steps , too , could help build a bigger budget .
More testing , tracing , and masking , for example , could reduce the infection rate in a community further , regardless of what else is going on .
By striking this balance , the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and deaths but potentially an outbreak from getting so bad that it necessitates another lockdown .
While experts all agreed that there ’ s zero political appetite for a lockdown right now , a massive surge in the fall and winter could leave the US with no other option .
Israel , for example , has shut down until early October at the earliest after suffering a massive increase in cases .
The reality is that the US will likely not go back to normal until it vanquishes the virus through a vaccine @ @ @ @ @ @ @ could take months or years , even after a vaccine is proven safe and effective , as the country and world scale up distribution to actually reach sufficient levels of immunity within the population .
But maybe the US will continue muddling along , or worse .
The country has already shown a much higher tolerance for Covid-19 cases and deaths than the rest of the developed world .
Trump , for his part , seems content with that — recently stating that the coronavirus “ affects virtually nobody ” and showing no @ @ @ @ @ @ @ If that holds , America could suffer tens of thousands more predictable , preventable deaths , on top of the 200,000 Covid-19 deaths it ’ s already seen .

While a lot of attention is currently going to President Donald Trump’s Covid-19 diagnosis, experts warn that the rest of the country should prepare for a potential coronavirus surge in the coming weeks and months of fall and winter.
The surge of Covid-19 cases and deaths in America over the summer resulted from a toxic mix of factors: states reopening, lockdown fatigue, and a season typically filled with vacations and holidays like Memorial Day and the Fourth of July. People gathered and celebrated indoors — at bars, restaurants, and friends’ and family’s homes. Millions of people got sick, and tens of thousands died.
This fall, experts worry it will all happen again: States are rolling back restrictions, people are eager to get back to normal, and Thanksgiving and Christmas are coming up. America may be on the verge of repeating the same mistakes, which would risk yet another surge in the Covid-19 epidemic.
Coronavirus cases have already trended up since mid-September. On September 12, the US hit a recent low in its seven-day case average of around 35,000. As of October 4, it was up to almost 44,000. The recent increase doesn’t seem to be driven by any one particular state — though some, like the Dakotas and Wisconsin, are doing quite badly — but rather upticks across much of the country all at once. (Increased testing capacity is likely detecting more cases, too.)
Part of the problem is America never really suppressed its Covid-19 cases to begin with. Think of a disease epidemic like a forest fire: It’s going to be really difficult to contain the virus when there are still flames raging in parts of the forest and small embers practically everywhere. The country always risks a full blaze with each step toward reopening and with each failure to take precautions seriously.
Consider Florida. Last month, the state reopened bars and, more recently, restaurants, despite the high risk of these indoor spaces. After Florida previously opened bars, in June, experts said the establishments were largely to blame for the state’s massive Covid-19 outbreak in the summer. As Florida reopens now, it has roughly two to three times the number of Covid-19 cases that it had in early June, and its high test positivity rate suggests it’s still likely missing a lot of cases. The state is fanning its flames while its most recent fire is nowhere near extinguished.
This is, in effect, what much of the country is doing now as it rushes to reopens schools, particularly colleges and universities, and risky indoor spaces. Coupled with recent Labor Day celebrations, experts worry that’s already leading to a new increase in Covid-19 cases.
Trump, for his part, has encouraged rapid reopenings. From his “LIBERATE” tweets in the spring to his recent demands that schools reopen, Trump has pushed forward with his efforts to return society to normal even as the coronavirus keeps spreading and killing people in the US. Indeed, Trump’s cavalier attitude toward the virus, as he attended big campaign rallies and refused to wear a mask, likely got him sick too.
The fall and winter threaten to make things much worse. Schools will continue to reopen. The cold in northern parts of America will push people back inside, where the virus has a much easier time spreading than the outdoors. Families and friends will come together for the holidays. A flu season could strain the health care system further.
States are once again starting to reopen more widely, as officials face pressure from businesses to reopen indoor dining before colder temperatures make outdoor activities less feasible. Experts worry that Americans as a whole will get even more fatigued with social distancing, now that the country is more than seven months into its battle against Covid-19.
“It’s less excusable this time,” Crystal Watson, senior scholar at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security, told me. “We have an example of what happens when we reopen these types of businesses for indoor activities.”
The good news is there’s still time to act. Cities, states, and the country as a whole could take social distancing seriously again. They could require masks where they aren’t already mandated. They could close bars and restaurants, supporting these businesses with a bailout, to prioritize keeping K-12 schools open while reducing other risks. Colleges and universities could ease demands for in-person teaching or at least embrace aggressive testing-and-tracing measures to mitigate the risks of causing further Covid-19 outbreaks.
Without these steps, the fall and winter outbreaks could end up worse than the summer and potentially even the spring. That could mean not just more infections and deaths but yet another setback in America’s hopes of getting parts of life closer back to normal.
“If you do things the right way, you can do them,” Cedric Dark, an emergency medicine physician at the Baylor College of Medicine, told me. “If you do them the wrong way, then you’re going to get cases.”
We keep making the same mistakes
After the spring outbreaks hit the northeastern US, much of the country, led by Republican leaders in states like Arizona, Florida, and Texas, moved forward with aggressive reopenings. The problem, experts said, is many of these places never suppressed their Covid-19 outbreaks. As epidemiologist Pia MacDonald at RTI International told me at the time, many states “never got to flat.” Case counts continued to climb, and states continued to reopen anyway.
This created an environment that made it much easier for the coronavirus to spread. If there’s already some community transmission going on, then it’s simply going to be more likely that one person will infect another. Add more spaces in which infections are very likely — particularly close indoor spaces like bars and restaurants — and that risk can be increased dramatically.
Today, the US seems to be heading in the same direction. While cases have fallen overall since late July, they plateaued at — and recently started rising from — a point that was still higher than the peak of Covid-19 cases in the spring (partly, but likely not entirely, due to more testing). Yet many states are moving forward with reopening once again.
So MacDonald is now repeating the same thing she told me this summer: “We never got to low enough levels [of Covid-19] to start with in most places.”
Of particular interest is indoor dining at restaurants and bars, which are reopening at varying levels across the country. Experts characterize these settings as perhaps the worst imaginable spaces for Covid-19 spread: People are close together for long periods of time; they can’t wear masks as they eat or drink; the air can’t dilute the virus like it can outdoors; and alcohol could lead people to drop their guards further. It was a recognition of all these risks that led many states to scale back and close indoor dining and bars back during their summer outbreaks.
This time, though, there’s another major variable: Schools are reopening. Some places have even reopened, or set plans to reopen, schools alongside bars or indoor dining — making it hard to separate the effects of either and potentially compounding new outbreaks.
Already, there have been reports of outbreaks in K-12 settings, where students and teachers can potentially transmit the coronavirus to each other in the classroom. But there’s still a lot we don’t know about how younger kids, particularly in elementary schools, spread the virus.
Some experts raised graver concerns about colleges and universities. Students in these institutions aren’t just potentially spreading the coronavirus in their classrooms, although that’s likely happening to some degree. They’re also showing up at bars, clubs, and indoor restaurants, partying at dorms, and drinking a lot more than they should.
“College kids are college kids,” Carlos del Rio, executive associate dean of the Emory University School of Medicine, told me. “That’s what I always tell every university president I talk to: You can make all the plans you want, but at the end of the day, it’s what happens outside your plans that matters.”
The good news, for now, is that infections in colleges and universities will skew younger, and younger people are less likely to suffer major complications, including deaths, from Covid-19. That helps explain, along with general improvements in treatment, why daily Covid-19 deaths have still trended down since August (although they’re still at more than 700 a day in the US).
But young people can still get seriously ill and die from the coronavirus — and if enough of them get infected, that could show up in higher death tolls eventually. Even if that doesn’t happen, young people will likely interact with their teachers, parents, and grandparents at some point, potentially infecting them. That could produce yet another outcome that would look similar to the summer: The outbreaks started among young groups but eventually spread to older populations who were more susceptible to illness and death.
After the summer surges, Brown University School of Public Health dean Ashish Jha told me, “I was like, ‘Okay, now we’ve all been through this — every part of the country: the South, the West, the Midwest, the Northeast. There’s no denialism anymore that will work, because there’s been this long denial while it’s been there but not here.’” Yet, he said, “we’re starting to see this again.”
He added, “I, at this point, feel like I clearly no longer understand why our country can’t learn its lessons and why we keep repeating the same mistakes.”
The fall and winter are coming
For months, experts have worried that the fall and winter would lead to more outbreaks, citing, as one contributor, the reopening of schools. That seems to be happening now, as cases start to creep up nationwide, with reported outbreaks in K-12 schools, colleges, and universities around the US.
But things could still get worse.
People are bound to get more fatigued with social distancing and the pandemic more broadly as time drags on. As months pass since the last huge wave of Covid-19 in the US, people are more likely to convince themselves it’s safe out there. If that happens, more people could end up going out and putting themselves in dangerous settings, infecting each other along the way.
At the same time, colder temperatures, particularly in the northern parts of the US, will more likely push people indoors, where the virus is much more likely to spread due to poor ventilation. (One upside: This could have the opposite effect in southern parts of the country, where temperatures will get less unbearably hot, so the outdoors may actually get more tolerable.)
As Thanksgiving rolls around, followed by Christmas, Hanukkah, and New Year’s, families and friends will likely come together from around the country. That includes college and university students, who could come home from Covid-19 hot spots back in their dorms or classrooms.
If you put this all together, there’s a real risk of a truly nationwide Covid-19 outbreak. As people come together from all over the country and return to home and school, they risk carrying the disease across local and state borders. That could result in a much more dispersed — and perhaps larger — coronavirus epidemic than the US has seen so far.
“People will bring this back during Thanksgiving, during Christmas, during winter break,” Dark said. “This is a disease that has an incubation period of up to two weeks. So it’s not really safe to say, ‘Okay, I’m going to come home, and come back.’ … By the time you develop symptoms, you’ve already exposed your parents.”
On top of all that, another flu season this fall and winter could strain health care systems, hindering hospitals’ abilities to treat Covid-19 patients and potentially contributing to more deaths.
There are reasons to think it won’t get so bad. Maybe since so many people have already gotten sick in the US, there will be enough community immunity, as long as there’s enough social distancing and masking, to mitigate spread. Maybe people won’t ease up on proper precautions after seeing more than 200,000 Covid-19 deaths in the US. Perhaps social distancing and masking for Covid-19 will hold off another flu season, as seemed to happen in the Southern Hemisphere.
Or maybe Trump’s Covid-19 diagnosis could signal to the country that this is still a serious problem.
But there’s a risk. And the numbers have already headed in the wrong direction.
“The next number in the fall is likely going to shoot way up,” Michael Osterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy, told me. “Likely well beyond 65,000, 70,000,” the summer’s previous peak. “I think this fall is going to be the biggest spike of all.”
We still have time to act
None of this set in stone. Experts told me again and again that the US still has time to act before it sees a repeat of the summer or worse.
None of the ideas to prevent all of this are shocking or new. They’re all things people have heard before: More testing and contact tracing to isolate people who are infected, get their close contacts to quarantine, and deploy broader restrictions as necessary. More masking, including mandates in the 17 states that don’t have one. More careful, phased reopenings.
This is what’s worked in other countries, from Germany to South Korea to New Zealand, to contain outbreaks. It’s what studies support: As a review of the research published in The Lancet found, “evidence shows that physical distancing of more than 1 m is highly effective and that face masks are associated with protection, even in non-health-care settings.”
It’s also what’s worked in the US. After suffering huge outbreaks in the spring, states like New York and Massachusetts have suppressed the coronavirus with such policies. Cities, such as San Francisco, have avoided bad outbreaks entirely with similar efforts. Even single universities, like the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign campus, have seen promising early results with aggressive testing and tracing. (The federal government would ideally be in charge of all of this, but Trump has by and large punted the pandemic down to the states to resolve.)
“There’s no mystery about what causes new cases,” Nahid Bhadelia, an infectious diseases physician and medical director of the Special Pathogens Unit at Boston University School of Medicine, told me. “We have to make trade-off choices.”
Much of the issue comes back to a careful reopening process. For this, some experts pointed to a budget model. The goal is to keep the spread of the coronavirus low enough that each new infection doesn’t always lead to more infections, making it so over time the country slides to zero cases. In other words, the goal is to keep the effective reproduction number, or R0 or Rt in scientific parlance, below one. Within that limited budget of an R0 or Rt lower than one, states can try to fit some places to reopen but not everything.
Everything that reopens will add to the infection rate. Some places may have tiny, even negligible effects, such as parks. Some are bigger threats, like bars and indoor dining. And some may carry potentially high risk but still seem worth it to the community for their social benefits, like schools.
The goal, then, is to balance out a reopening — doing it slowly, making it possible to see the effects of each extra step — to make sure outbreaks don’t get out of control. Ultimately, it may require not opening bars or indoor dining, perhaps ever, so schools and other more socially crucial places can open. At the same time, the government could offer shuttered businesses a bailout or other financial supports.
“For us, as a society, to be able to send children to school, we have to make tough decisions and sacrifices in other areas,” Jorge Salinas, an epidemiologist at the University of Iowa, told me. “We can’t have it all.”
Other steps, too, could help build a bigger budget. More testing, tracing, and masking, for example, could reduce the infection rate in a community further, regardless of what else is going on.
By striking this balance, the country can not only avoid more infections and deaths but also potentially avoid an outbreak from getting so bad that it necessitates another lockdown. While experts all agreed that there’s zero political appetite for a lockdown right now, a massive surge in the fall and winter could leave the US with no other option. Israel, for example, has shut down until early October at the earliest after seeing a massive increase in cases.
The reality is that the US will likely not go back to normal until it vanquishes the virus through a vaccine or similar treatment — a process that could take months or years, even after a vaccine is proven safe and effective, as the country and world scale up distribution to actually reach sufficient levels of immunity within the population.
But maybe the US will continue muddling along, or worse. The country has already shown a much higher tolerance for Covid-19 cases and deaths than the rest of the developed world. Trump, for his part, seems content with that — recently stating that the coronavirus “affects virtually nobody” and showing no interest in changing his hands-off, minimizing approach.
If that holds, America could suffer tens of thousands more predictable, preventable deaths, on top of the almost 210,000 Covid-19 deaths it’s already seen.


vox--2020-09-28--Everything’s scary. What’s Halloween going to be like?

Right now , I should be wandering the blood-soaked halls of a decrepit house .
There should be a chainsaw-wielding clown waiting in the shadows .
I should be struggling to see in the dark , about to suffer a mild panic attack when an air cannon shoots me in the face .
Instead , I ’ m sitting on my couch alone , with no demented clowns in sight .
You see , I ’ m supposed to be at Universal Studios , celebrating the 30th anniversary of their iconic haunted theme park event , Halloween Horror Nights .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ in the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic .
For Halloween fanatics like me , the weeks leading up to October 31 are the most wonderful time of the year .
They ’ re normally packed with haunted attractions , shopping trips to stock up on candy and décor , party planning , and agonizing over what costume to wear .
But there ’ s an extra chill in the air this fall and it happens to be a pandemic .
It ’ s fair to say Covid-19 has spooked Halloween .
Los Angeles @ @ @ @ @ @ @ whether to follow suit .
Most of the country ’ s biggest Halloween events are canceled , including Halloween Horror Nights , Walt Disney World ’ s Oogie Boogie Bash , Knott ’ s Scary Farm , the Greenwich Village Halloween Parade , and the West Hollywood Halloween Carnival .
Even the nation ’ s purveyor of culturally divisive marshmallow candies , Peeps , suspended production .
For better or worse , that means no pumpkin- , ghost- , or Frankenstein-shaped marshmallows until 2021 .
Still , the $ 8.8 billion Halloween industry @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Even World War II didn ’ t stop Americans from trick-or-treating and putting on parades .
While the holiday will certainly look different this year , it ’ s far from canceled .
Peeps may be on hiatus , but other candy companies like Hershey are more optimistic .
In the US , the brand launched a color-coded interactive map to track the Covid-19 risk level of every county and offer safe trick-or-treating suggestions .
In Canada , they partnered with Snapchat to gamify trick-or-treating .
The result , “ Hershey ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ kids to hunt for candy at home using augmented reality .
“ We are expecting upticks in respect to celebrating at home , ” says Ola Machnowski , senior marketing manager for Hershey Canada .
“ This year , Halloween does fall on a Saturday , so parents are going to have the interesting dilemma of , ‘ How do I keep my child occupied for a full day ?
’ versus just the evening.
” At any rate , Hershey attributes half of its Halloween sales to people buying candy for themselves @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ( something I ’ d know nothing about ) .
Rampant stress eating certainly shouldn ’ t hurt those numbers .
Mars Wrigley , which makes M & Ms , Skittles , and Snickers , has its own online plans , launching a digital Treat Town where kids can virtually trick-or-treat with trusted contacts and actually receive real candy afterward via vouchers .
Users can even decorate their in-app “ doors ” and create costumed avatars .
There will be no shortage of opportunities to shop in the lead-up to America ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ sees almost half a billion dollars spent on pet costumes alone .
Despite online rumors to the contrary and some very panicked customers , Spirit Halloween opened most of its 1,400 seasonal pop-up stores this fall .
Big parties may be a no-go , but the retailer is promoting safe ways to celebrate including virtual costume contests , outdoor scavenger hunts , family game nights and , of course , going full-out with outdoor inflatables , lights , and animatronics to show up the neighbors .
It seems to be working ; Spirit @ @ @ @ @ @ @ look to be on par with last year .
In similar fashion , Party City pivoted to highlight the potential of virtual parties and drive-by celebrations , including “ trunk-or-treating ” and contactless “ booing and ghosting ” ( leaving spooky surprises on a neighbor ’ s front porch with a note that says , “ You ’ ve been BOOed ” ) .
It helps that Halloween spending is increasingly influenced by the ’ gram : In 2019 , nearly half of millennials admitted to making Halloween purchases strictly for social media @ @ @ @ @ @ @ making an ( ironic ? )
comeback .
A new TikTok trend sees teens dressing up in white sheets — often accessorized with a cool pair of sunglasses — to do ghost photoshoots .
But it ’ s haunters , in particular , who are determined to make this Halloween simultaneously safer and scarier than ever .
There are typically over 1,200 haunted attractions in the US each year .
The haunters — those who work in haunted attractions and events — have dealt with societal crises before , including the HIV/AIDS epidemic @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of haunt owners actually saw an uptick after 9/11 and throughout the Iraq War , ” says Margee Kerr , a sociologist who studies fear and authored the book Scream : Chilling Adventures in the Science of Fear .
While this may seem counterintuitive , inducing controlled amounts of fear is arguably therapeutic , and haunts are a safe way to experience the fight-or-flight response without actually being in danger .
“ Doing things that are challenging or scary , even when there ’ s no real harm involved , and coming out @ @ @ @ @ @ @ we ’ ve overcome and accomplished something , ” explains Kerr .
In fact , Americans originally conceived of haunted houses as a way to occupy and focus aimless teenage boys who wreaked havoc during the Great Depression .
Drive-through haunts offer Covid-19-safe experiences in Houston , Orlando , and Tokyo , where “ zombies ” smear vehicles with fake blood ( and helpfully clean it off afterward ) .
Still , some traditional haunts are determined to forge ahead , albeit with innovative changes .
Gone are the haunt industry ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ contact with actors , and heavy curtains between rooms .
The only scares within 6 feet these days are courtesy of machines .
Located in Salt Lake City , Fear Factory was the country ’ s first haunt to reopen after Covid-19 shutdowns for their annual Halfway to Halloween event in May .
In addition to more than 400 returning staff , the company hired a new safety team tasked with wiping down and sanitizing any and all potential touch points every 15 minutes .
Their 60-page contingency plan , which is publicly @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the rest of the industry .
“ I really think it ’ s safer to go to our haunted house than to go to the grocery store and get groceries , ” says founder and COO Rob Dunfield .
Beyond physical distancing , haunts need to rethink everything from actors ’ costumes to sound engineering .
( Well-timed lighting and sound triggers can fool the senses to make someone seem a lot closer than they actually are . )
All of Fear Factory ’ s actors wear PPE masks under their decorative masks @ @ @ @ @ @ @ contactless airbrushes .
In some cases , PPE masks incorporate special-effects makeup to look like rotting flesh , vampiric grins , or metallic Bane-esque masks .
“ The scare has been completely redesigned , ” says Dunfield .
“ We used to have animatronics draw customers ’ attention so actors could pop out and startle them up close .
Now , that ’ s reversed .
The costumed actors draw attention from farther away , then trigger an animatronic , loud noise , or air blast to go off right next to a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is to creepily observe guests from afar , waiting to be noticed before slowly tilting your head in the way only homicidal maniacs do .
“ It ’ s given our actors the opportunity to actually act more and develop characters .
Before it was all screams , grunts , and jump scares , ” says Dunfield .
This season ’ s haunt themes fall in line with horror ’ s tendency to reflect cultural anxieties .
For example , horror during the Cold War often featured alien attacks and invasions , representing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ nuclear warfare .
In the early 2000s , Guantanamo Bay and prisoner abuse at Abu Ghraib gave rise to “ torture porn.
” While it seems generally agreed upon that it ’ s way too soon for any sort of coronavirus or pandemic theme , adjacent ones like zombie outbreaks , surveillance , isolation , and post-apocalyptic worlds are popular choices to prey on guests ’ current fears .
“ Others are going in the opposite direction , leaning more into supernatural and monster themes — things that are so far outside reality @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the fantasy of it , ” says Kerr .
In many ways , 2020 itself has felt like one long , never-ending horror movie .
We ’ re in need of release , some serious group therapy , and a healthy dose of escapism .
Whether you want to dress up like a sexy Carole Baskin , stuff your face with candy , or scare yourself silly at haunts , Halloween might be just what the doctor ordered — even in the middle of a pandemic .
Help keep Vox free for all @ @ @ @ @ @ @ understand what ’ s happening in the news , from the coronavirus crisis to a racial reckoning to what is , quite possibly , the most consequential presidential election of our lifetimes .
Our mission has never been more vital than it is in this moment : to empower you through understanding .
But our distinctive brand of explanatory journalism takes resources .
Even when the economy and the news advertising market recovers , your support will be a critical part of sustaining our resource-intensive work .
If you have already contributed , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ t , please consider helping everyone make sense of an increasingly chaotic world : Contribute today from as little as $ 3 .

Right now, I should be wandering the blood-soaked halls of a decrepit house. There should be a chainsaw-wielding clown waiting in the shadows. I should be struggling to see in the dark, about to suffer a mild panic attack when an air cannon shoots me in the face. Instead, I’m sitting on my couch alone, with no demented clowns in sight.
You see, I’m supposed to be at Universal Studios, celebrating the 30th anniversary of their iconic haunted theme park event, Halloween Horror Nights. Unfortunately, the event was called off in the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic. For Halloween fanatics like me, the weeks leading up to October 31 are the most wonderful time of the year. They’re normally packed with haunted attractions, shopping trips to stock up on candy and décor, party planning, and agonizing over what costume to wear. But there’s an extra chill in the air this fall and it happens to be a pandemic.
It’s fair to say Covid-19 has spooked Halloween. Los Angeles already banned trick-or-treating while other municipalities debate whether to follow suit. Most of the country’s biggest Halloween events are canceled, including Halloween Horror Nights, Walt Disney World’s Oogie Boogie Bash, Knott’s Scary Farm, the Greenwich Village Halloween Parade, and the West Hollywood Halloween Carnival. Even the nation’s purveyor of culturally divisive marshmallow candies, Peeps, suspended production. For better or worse, that means no pumpkin-, ghost-, or Frankenstein-shaped marshmallows until 2021.
Still, the $8.8 billion Halloween industry is nothing if not creative and resourceful. Even World War II didn’t stop Americans from trick-or-treating and putting on parades. While the holiday will certainly look different this year, it’s far from canceled.
Peeps may be on hiatus, but other candy companies like Hershey are more optimistic. In the US, the brand launched a color-coded interactive map to track the Covid-19 risk level of every county and offer safe trick-or-treating suggestions. In Canada, they partnered with Snapchat to gamify trick-or-treating. The result, “Hershey’s Treat Quest,” will allow kids to hunt for candy at home using augmented reality.
“We are expecting upticks in respect to celebrating at home,” says Ola Machnowski, senior marketing manager for Hershey Canada. “This year, Halloween does fall on a Saturday, so parents are going to have the interesting dilemma of, ‘How do I keep my child occupied for a full day?’ versus just the evening.” At any rate, Hershey attributes half of its Halloween sales to people buying candy for themselves and their families to consume at home (something I’d know nothing about). Rampant stress eating certainly shouldn’t hurt those numbers.
Mars Wrigley, which makes M&Ms, Skittles, and Snickers, has its own online plans, launching a digital Treat Town where kids can virtually trick-or-treat with trusted contacts and actually receive real candy afterward via vouchers. Users can even decorate their in-app “doors” and create costumed avatars.
There will be no shortage of opportunities to shop in the lead-up to America’s second-largest consumer holiday — one that typically sees almost half a billion dollars spent on pet costumes alone. Despite online rumors to the contrary and some very panicked customers, Spirit Halloween opened most of its 1,400 seasonal pop-up stores this fall. Big parties may be a no-go, but the retailer is promoting safe ways to celebrate including virtual costume contests, outdoor scavenger hunts, family game nights and, of course, going full-out with outdoor inflatables, lights, and animatronics to show up the neighbors. It seems to be working; Spirit’s CEO Steven Silverstein says sales look to be on par with last year.
In similar fashion, Party City pivoted to highlight the potential of virtual parties and drive-by celebrations, including “trunk-or-treating” and contactless “booing and ghosting” (leaving spooky surprises on a neighbor’s front porch with a note that says, “You’ve been BOOed”). It helps that Halloween spending is increasingly influenced by the ’gram: In 2019, nearly half of millennials admitted to making Halloween purchases strictly for social media posts.
Uber-basic DIY costumes are also making an (ironic?) comeback. A new TikTok trend sees teens dressing up in white sheets — often accessorized with a cool pair of sunglasses — to do ghost photoshoots.
But it’s haunters, in particular, who are determined to make this Halloween simultaneously safer and scarier than ever. There are typically over 1,200 haunted attractions in the US each year. The haunters — those who work in haunted attractions and events — have dealt with societal crises before, including the HIV/AIDS epidemic and several wars.
“A lot of haunt owners actually saw an uptick after 9/11 and throughout the Iraq War,” says Margee Kerr, a sociologist who studies fear and authored the book Scream: Chilling Adventures in the Science of Fear. While this may seem counterintuitive, inducing controlled amounts of fear is arguably therapeutic, and haunts are a safe way to experience the fight-or-flight response without actually being in danger. “Doing things that are challenging or scary, even when there’s no real harm involved, and coming out the other side leaves us feeling like we’ve overcome and accomplished something,” explains Kerr. In fact, Americans originally conceived of haunted houses as a way to occupy and focus aimless teenage boys who wreaked havoc during the Great Depression.
Drive-through haunts offer Covid-19-safe experiences in Houston, Orlando, and Tokyo, where “zombies” smear vehicles with fake blood (and helpfully clean it off afterward). Still, some traditional haunts are determined to forge ahead, albeit with innovative changes. Gone are the haunt industry’s favorite go-tos like claustrophobia walls, close contact with actors, and heavy curtains between rooms. The only scares within 6 feet these days are courtesy of machines.
Located in Salt Lake City, Fear Factory was the country’s first haunt to reopen after Covid-19 shutdowns for their annual Halfway to Halloween event in May. In addition to more than 400 returning staff, the company hired a new safety team tasked with wiping down and sanitizing any and all potential touch points every 15 minutes. Their 60-page contingency plan, which is publicly available, serves as a roadmap for the rest of the industry.
“I really think it’s safer to go to our haunted house than to go to the grocery store and get groceries,” says founder and COO Rob Dunfield.
Beyond physical distancing, haunts need to rethink everything from actors’ costumes to sound engineering. (Well-timed lighting and sound triggers can fool the senses to make someone seem a lot closer than they actually are.) All of Fear Factory’s actors wear PPE masks under their decorative masks, and makeup is only applied with contactless airbrushes. In some cases, PPE masks incorporate special-effects makeup to look like rotting flesh, vampiric grins, or metallic Bane-esque masks.
“The scare has been completely redesigned,” says Dunfield. “We used to have animatronics draw customers’ attention so actors could pop out and startle them up close. Now, that’s reversed. The costumed actors draw attention from farther away, then trigger an animatronic, loud noise, or air blast to go off right next to a person.”
The move of the season is to creepily observe guests from afar, waiting to be noticed before slowly tilting your head in the way only homicidal maniacs do. “It’s given our actors the opportunity to actually act more and develop characters. Before it was all screams, grunts, and jump scares,” says Dunfield.
This season’s haunt themes fall in line with horror’s tendency to reflect cultural anxieties. For example, horror during the Cold War often featured alien attacks and invasions, representing Americans’ fear of foreign attacks and nuclear warfare. In the early 2000s, Guantanamo Bay and prisoner abuse at Abu Ghraib gave rise to “torture porn.”
While it seems generally agreed upon that it’s way too soon for any sort of coronavirus or pandemic theme, adjacent ones like zombie outbreaks, surveillance, isolation, and post-apocalyptic worlds are popular choices to prey on guests’ current fears. “Others are going in the opposite direction, leaning more into supernatural and monster themes — things that are so far outside reality we can really suspend disbelief and enjoy the fantasy of it,” says Kerr.
In many ways, 2020 itself has felt like one long, never-ending horror movie. We’re in need of release, some serious group therapy, and a healthy dose of escapism. Whether you want to dress up like a sexy Carole Baskin, stuff your face with candy, or scare yourself silly at haunts, Halloween might be just what the doctor ordered — even in the middle of a pandemic.


vox--2020-09-28--Whose vote counts, the Netflix series, explained

Elections aren ’ t just a measure of what parties and candidates people prefer ; they ’ re a measure of who counts in a country .
And that ’ s what Vox ’ s new Netflix special series Whose Vote Counts is about .
You can watch all three episodes over on Netflix , launching on Monday , September 28 .
Americans vote at much lower rates than most other developed countries , and one of the most common reasons given is that people don ’ t think their vote matters .
Voting does matter , enormously — but @ @ @ @ @ @ @ feel that way .
All kinds of systems unique to the United States keep voters from the polls , tip elections in favor of moneyed interests , and give some votes a lot more power than others .
For the three episodes in this series , “ The right to vote , ” “ Can you buy an election ?
” and “ Whose vote counts , ” we combed through piles of studies , analyzed reams of data , and spoke to leading experts who ’ ve lived these systems from the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , is three compelling stories that make the issues and their stakes clear — brought to life by our three incredibly talented narrators , who shared our passion for these issues : Leonardo DiCaprio , Selena Gomez , and John Legend .
The topics of these episodes have been coming to a head in recent years .
But as we were making this series , and the election season heated up , we were surprised at the new dimensions they took .
The pandemic has brought unprecedented strains on American voting systems , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ But it ’ s also helped energize the debate over how American citizens want the system to work .
Our series outlines some of the proposed solutions out there to make America ’ s democracy represent all its citizens better .
Many of the experts we spoke to were hopeful that we may be at an inflection point — heightened awareness and renewed will might have the power to bring about significant reform .
As one of our interviewees put it : “ There ’ s no such thing as forever in a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to the American people to decide what ’ s next .
Help keep Vox free for all Millions turn to Vox each month to understand what ’ s happening in the news , from the coronavirus crisis to a racial reckoning to what is , quite possibly , the most consequential presidential election of our lifetimes .
Our mission has never been more vital than it is in this moment : to empower you through understanding .
But our distinctive brand of explanatory journalism takes resources .
Even when the economy and the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ will be a critical part of sustaining our resource-intensive work .
If you have already contributed , thank you .
If you haven ’ t , please consider helping everyone make sense of an increasingly chaotic world : Contribute today from as little as $ 3 .

Elections aren’t just a measure of what parties and candidates people prefer; they’re a measure of who counts in a country. And that’s what Vox’s new Netflix special series Whose Vote Counts is about.
You can watch all three episodes over on Netflix, launching on Monday, September 28.
Americans vote at much lower rates than most other developed countries, and one of the most common reasons given is that people don’t think their vote matters. Voting does matter, enormously — but it makes sense that so many Americans feel that way. All kinds of systems unique to the United States keep voters from the polls, tip elections in favor of moneyed interests, and give some votes a lot more power than others.
For the three episodes in this series, “The Right to Vote,” “Can You Buy an Election?” and “Whose Vote Counts,” we combed through piles of studies, analyzed reams of data, and spoke to leading experts who’ve lived these systems from the inside. The result, we hope, is three compelling stories that make the issues and their stakes clear — brought to life by our three incredibly talented narrators, who shared our passion for these issues: Leonardo DiCaprio, Selena Gomez, and John Legend.
The topics of these episodes have been coming to a head in recent years. But as we were making this series, and the election season heated up, we were surprised at the new dimensions they took. The pandemic has brought unprecedented strains on American voting systems, and new opportunities for unfair play.
But it’s also helped energize the debate over how American citizens want the system to work. Our series outlines some of the proposed solutions out there to make America’s democracy represent all its citizens better. Many of the experts we spoke to were hopeful that we may be at an inflection point — heightened awareness and renewed will might have the power to bring about significant reform. As one of our interviewees put it: “There’s no such thing as forever in a democracy.” It’s just up to the American people to decide what’s next.
Watch the series here.


vox--2020-09-28--The Supreme Court is about to hit an undemocratic milestone

The confirmation of Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas , back in 1991 , was a squeaker : 52 yeas , 48 nays — the narrowest margin in over a century .
The senators who voted to put him on the bench had won their most recent elections with a combined tally of 42 million votes .
But the senators who voted “ nay ” were elected by 46 million .
Thomas became the first Supreme Court justice to be confirmed by a bloc of senators who had been elected by a minority of voters .
Then it happened again .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ who confirmed Justices Samuel Alito , Neil Gorsuch , and Brett Kavanaugh received millions fewer votes than the senators who opposed their confirmations .
Ruth Bader Ginsburg ’ s replacement seems certain to join the ranks of these “ minority justices.
” Even if President Trump ’ s nominee , Amy Coney Barrett , wins the support of every Republican senator , including moderate hold-outs like Lisa Murkowski and Susan Collins , all those senators combined received 13 million fewer votes than their colleagues across the aisle .
With this new confirmation , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ undemocratic new era .
For the first time since senators were directly elected , a controlling majority of the court will have been put there by senators who most voters didn ’ t choose .
( And of course , the last three will have been nominated by a president who lost the popular vote by nearly 3 million votes . )
The Senate has always been one of the federal government ’ s least democratic institutions .
Each state — big and small — gets two senators .
That means Sen. Bernie @ @ @ @ @ @ @ about who goes on the Supreme Court as Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas , even though Sanders represents about 600,000 people , and Cruz represents 29 million .
It also means the smallest 25 states — home to only about 15 percent of the US population — have as much power as the 25 biggest .
And that ’ s not new ; half the Senate has always represented about 15-25 percent of the population .
And yet , for most of the Senate ’ s history , majority rule has endured .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ with self-imposed rules like the filibuster , meant that most legislation was passed by a group of senators who represented a majority of the nation .
Most Supreme Court justices were confirmed by large bipartisan majorities — like Ruth Bader Ginsburg ( 96 yeas , 3 nays ) .
But in the past few decades , things have changed .
The nation has become more polarized , confirmation votes have become much closer , and Senate norms have been abandoned .
At the same time , Democrats are increasingly concentrated in larger states @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in the Senate .
Democrats control a majority of seats ( 26-24 ) in the 25 most populous states .
Republicans however , have a much larger majority ( 29-21 ) in the 25 least populous states .
Back in 1980 , the average Republican voter had 6 percent more power in the Senate than the average Democratic voter .
That advantage has grown to 14 percent .
We examine much more of the history of the unequal power of votes in America in our series Whose vote counts , explained over at @ @ @ @ @ @ @ created the least democratic Supreme Court in modern history .

The confirmation of Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas, back in 1991, was a squeaker: 52 yeas, 48 nays — the narrowest margin in over a century.
The senators who voted to put him on the bench had won their most recent elections with a combined tally of 42 million votes. But the senators who voted nay were elected by 46 million. Thomas became the first Supreme Court justice to be confirmed by a bloc of senators who had been elected by a minority of voters.
Then it happened again. And again and again. The senators who confirmed Justices Samuel Alito, Neil Gorsuch, and Brett Kavanaugh received millions fewer votes than the senators who opposed their confirmations.
Ruth Bader Ginsburg’s replacement seems likely to join the ranks of these “minority justices.” Even if President Trump’s nominee, Amy Coney Barrett, wins the support of every Republican senator, including moderate holdouts like Lisa Murkowski and Susan Collins, all those senators combined received 13 million fewer votes than their colleagues across the aisle.
If Barrett is confirmed, the Supreme Court will enter a particularly undemocratic new era. For the first time since senators were directly elected, a controlling majority of the Court will have been put there by senators whom most voters didn’t choose. (And, of course, the last three will have been nominated by a president who lost the popular vote by nearly 3 million votes.)
The Senate has always been one of the federal government’s least democratic institutions. Each state — big and small — gets two senators. That means Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont has as much say about who goes on the Supreme Court as Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas, even though Sanders represents about 600,000 people and Cruz represents 29 million.
It also means the smallest 25 states, home to only about 15 percent of the US population, have as much power as the 25 biggest. And that’s not new; half the Senate has always represented about 15 to 25 percent of the population.
Yet for most of the Senate’s history, majority rule has endured. Traditions of civility and compromise, along with self-imposed rules like the filibuster, meant that most legislation was passed by a group of senators who represented a majority of the nation. Most Supreme Court justices were confirmed by large bipartisan majorities — like Ruth Bader Ginsburg (96 yeas, 3 nays).
But in the past few decades, things have changed. The nation has become more polarized, confirmation votes have become much closer, and Senate norms have been abandoned.
At the same time, Democrats are increasingly concentrated in larger states, giving the GOP a leg up in the Senate. Democrats control a majority of seats (26-24) in the 25 most populous states. Republicans, however, have a much larger majority (29-21) in the 25 least populous states. Back in 1980, the average Republican voter had 6 percent more power in the Senate than the average Democratic voter. That advantage has grown to 14 percent.
This imbalanced Senate has created the least democratic Supreme Court in modern history.
We examine much more of the history of the unequal power of votes in America in our series Whose Vote Counts, Explained over at Netflix.


Whose vote counts?

America is the world ’ s oldest democracy , founded on the radical idea that governments “ derive their just powers from the consent of the governed.
” But around 40 percent of American voters today choose not to give that consent .
That turnout rate lags behind most other developed democracies .
A majority of Americans now say their government needs a fundamental redesign .
American democracy is unique in a lot of ways .
You won ’ t find the “ right to vote ” in our Constitution .
And the rules around voting are written by partisan @ @ @ @ @ @ @ voting harder .
The US lets unlimited money flood our elections , which are the most expensive in the world .
And at different times in recent years , the House , the Senate , and the presidency have been controlled by a party that most people voted against — the result of compromises made almost 250 years ago , before US political parties existed .
The Vox/Netflix series Whose Vote Counts looks at what impact all this has on the power of your vote , as well as some of the best @ @ @ @ @ @ @ represent us better .
Votes aren ’ t created equal in America .
But they are , in the words of the late civil rights leader John Lewis , who helped expand the right to vote , “ the most powerful nonviolent tool we have to make change in a democratic society.
” Make your plan to vote at When We All Vote .

America is the world’s oldest democracy, founded on the radical idea that governments “derive their just powers from the consent of the governed.” But around 40 percent of American voters today choose not to give that consent. That turnout rate lags behind most other developed democracies. A majority of Americans now say their government needs a fundamental redesign.
American democracy is unique in a lot of ways. You won’t find the “right to vote” in our Constitution. And the rules around voting are written by partisan politicians, who sometimes benefit from making voting harder. The US lets unlimited money flood our elections, which are the most expensive in the world. And at different times in recent years, the House, the Senate, and the presidency have been controlled by a party that most people voted against — the result of compromises made almost 250 years ago, before US political parties existed.
The Vox/Netflix series Whose Vote Counts looks at what impact all this has on the power of your vote, as well as some of the best ideas out there to make our government represent us better. Votes aren’t created equal in America. But they are, in the words of the late civil rights leader John Lewis, who helped expand the right to vote, “the most powerful nonviolent tool we have to make change in a democratic society.” Make your plan to vote at When We All Vote.


vox--2020-09-28--The Trump tax scandal is an indictment of the president — and the system

The problem isn ’ t just Donald Trump deducting $ 70,000 in haircuts from his taxes or counting his family home in Westchester County as a business expense .
It ’ s also the system that let him do it .
The New York Times ’ s blockbuster report on the president ’ s long-sought tax returns has sparked outrage in some corners about his tax bill and business practices .
The Times discovered that Trump paid no federal income taxes at all for several years , and in 2016 and 2017 , he paid just $ 750 .
It @ @ @ @ @ @ @ incurred on his businesses , many of which he used to later dramatically reduce what he owed to the government , an ongoing $ 100 million battle with the IRS , and more than $ 400 million in debt that ’ s about to come due .
It is clear that President Trump is not doing so hot , business-wise , and has made some bad bets .
The Times investigation also suggests the president has made some legally questionable maneuvers with regard to his taxes — turns out a guy who lies @ @ @ @ @ @ @ his finances , to the public and potentially to the government .
But it ’ s worth stepping back and examining the framework that enabled Trump : one with a litany of tricks and loopholes that allow the wealthy to avoid paying their fair share in taxes , and one that fails to enforce the laws in place to catch bad actors .
“ We essentially have a two-tiered system in this country , ” said Natasha Sarin , an assistant law professor at the University of Pennsylvania .
“ If you are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to resources to figure out ways to toe the line with respect to tax laws or totally evade existing liabilities , there ’ s an infrastructure in place for you to do it , and it ’ s incredibly hard for the IRS to go after you.
” Some of what Trump appears to have done is par for the course in terms of tax tactics enlisted by businesses and rich people .
Some of it is not , for a businessman and , perhaps more importantly , for a president .
“ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ your disposal access to resources to figure out ways to toe the line with respect to tax laws or totally evade existing liabilities , there ’ s an infrastructure in place for you to do it , and it ’ s incredibly hard for the IRS to go after you ” “ In the history of businesspeople that are unscrupulous and really aggressive with tax matters , [ Trump ] is not literally unique ; it is definitely on the tail of distribution that ’ s more aggressive , likelier to be disputed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Clausing , an economist at Reed College .
“ There are other businesspeople in that tail .
What there aren ’ t are presidents who are clearly using their office for financial gain.
” On all fronts , it is troublesome — even if some or much of it is legal , it feels a lot like cheating in a game that it isn ’ t even possible for most people to play .
The self-proclaimed ultra-rich president of the United States is paying less in taxes than millions of Americans .
Rich @ @ @ @ @ @ @ avoiding taxes — and avoiding enforcement Much of what the Times investigation revealed Trump and his family to be doing is not normal or possibly even legal ( more on that later ) , but some of it is .
It is often better to be rich than poor in America , including when it comes to your taxes .
The structure is more favorable to the wealthy , and it ’ s not being enforced well for those who break the rules — who disproportionately tend to be the wealthy .
The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ higher-income individuals and businesses and has become increasingly so in recent years .
The $ 1.5 trillion tax cut bill Trump signed into law in 2017 disproportionately benefited corporations and the wealthy , including the types of businesses the president often deals in .
And the CARES Act , the stimulus bill passed in March to help boost the economy amid the pandemic , also had in it many tax breaks to help the rich .
The country ’ s richest families pay a lower tax rate than much of the middle class @ @ @ @ @ @ @ lot of loopholes that white , wealthy Americans benefit from , ” said Dorothy Brown , a law professor at Emory University .
Real estate , in particular , is a tax-favored industry , meaning people like Trump get all sorts of deductions and perks .
Robert Willens , a New York tax analyst and former managing director at Lehman Brothers , said in an email that he doesn ’ t think the president ’ s situation is “ markedly different ” from that of other real estate professionals on a number of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ pass-through entities ” and blurring lines between what counts as a business expense and what ’ s a nondeductible personal expense , which sometimes isn ’ t an easy distinction .
( A lunch with a client can be part business , part personal . )
“ All in all , although the magnitude of the numbers involved here is substantial , it ’ s difficult to say that , at the end of the day , his situation is unprecedented or one not commonly encountered by many real estate professionals , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ businesses also have the benefit of having the funds to spend on lawyers and accountants to finagle their way out of taxes .
“ If you ’ re a working person and you ’ re as unscrupulous as Donald Trump , you don ’ t have those same avenues for avoiding taxes as you do if you ’ re a wealthy business owner , ” said Seth Hanlon , a senior fellow at the Center for American Progress .
“ Only people that are wealthy have expensive lawyers and accountants and own their @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is part of what leaves the country with a tax gap — a difference between taxes that the IRS collects compared to what it is owed — that translates to meaningful dollars to the federal government .
In recent research , Sarin and former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers estimate that the tax gap will total $ 7.5 trillion from 2020 to 2029 .
Much of the tax gap benefits the wealthy ; Sarin and Summers estimate that underreporting is five times higher among people making more than $ 10 million annually than it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Their rough estimate suggests that the top 1 percent account for 70 percent of uncollected taxes .
“ If you are a normal person who makes a wage , your tax compliance is 99 percent .
If you are a rich person who earns dividend income and real estate income and runs a proprietorship , your compliance rate could be as low as 45 percent , ” Sarin said , citing IRS tax gap estimates .
She and Summers project that restoring tax compliance efforts could generate $ 1 trillion over a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ supposed to collect and enforce taxes , is hamstrung .
Its budget has been reduced by about 20 percent since 2010 .
“ This is where people get the idea , rightly or wrongly , that there is a bunch of tax avoidance going on at the top .
And it ’ s hard for the IRS to police that , especially when their budget is suffering so badly , ” said Kyle Pomerleau , a resident fellow at the American Enterprise Institute .
Budget cuts have disproportionately affected the IRS ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ experienced enough to be able to decipher a rich person ’ s tax returns and figure out if they are evading taxes .
Low-income Americans are just as or even more likely to be audited than the rich .
“ The audit rates for EITC [ earned income tax credit ] recipients are the same as for the top 1 percent now , which is crazy , ” Hanlon said .
Ultimately , a lot of things fall through the cracks .
For example , it ’ s not always easy to differentiate @ @ @ @ @ @ @ with tax returns that are as complex as Trump ’ s and the $ 70,000 in deductions for hairstyling during The Apprentice .
“ They just don ’ t have the resources to police every single return down to small $ 70,000 line items , ” Pomerleau said .
“ I know that sentence sounds ridiculous , but for multimillion-dollar operations , $ 70,000 is not that much.
” It is true that wealthy people and corporations get away with a lot in modern-day America .
But many experts say that Trump appears @ @ @ @ @ @ @ regard to what we know about not only his tax practices but also those of his family .
“ This is not normal , even for wealthy people , ” Hanlon said .
For a guy who has staked his personal brand on being a business genius , Trump appears not to be particularly great at business , or at least he wants the IRS to think he ’ s not .
According to the Times report , which my colleague Andrew Prokop also wrote through highlights of , Trump has claimed in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ money on his businesses .
He reported more than $ 300 million in losses at his golf courses since 2000 and at least $ 55 million in losses at his Washington , DC , hotel that opened in 2016 .
Some of his businesses were doing well — Trump Tower consistently makes money , and The Apprentice was lucrative — but they weren ’ t doing well enough to stop him from using other losses to wipe out his tax bill .
“ The typical billionaire businessperson ’ s tax returns would not @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
“ Everyone gets unlucky occasionally , but the picture that emerges from the Times story is one of a pretty unsuccessful businessperson.
” There is a difference between tax avoidance , where people lessen tax liabilities to hold on to more of their money after taxes , and tax evasion , where people deliberately fail to pay or underpay taxes .
But the line between what is and isn ’ t a crime isn ’ t always well defined .
“ The real wealthy don ’ t save money on taxes by @ @ @ @ @ @ @ true wealthy in America have their wealth in investments that are taxed at a preferential rate .
They build wealth with the help of federal tax policy , which taxes them less , ” Brown said .
“ Everyone gets unlucky occasionally , but the picture that emerges ... is one of a pretty unsuccessful businessperson ” It is also not clear whether Trump is being truthful in his tax returns about his finances .
The president ’ s former personal lawyer Michael Cohen told Congress in 2019 that Trump inflated his total @ @ @ @ @ @ @ them to reduce his taxes .
“ I don ’ t think those numbers are real .
He lies about everything , ” Brown said .
There is only so much experts can glean from Trump ’ s tax returns based on what the Times has released .
The publication does not plan to make the documents it received public in order to protect its sources , and even if it were to , it wouldn ’ t tell us , for example , the president ’ s net worth .
Trump is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on his businesses , as his tax returns show , and taking advantage of tricks and loopholes in the tax system to reduce his bill .
He also appears to be fudging details on expenses — for example , reportedly paying his daughter Ivanka Trump as a consultant in order to claim a tax break .
The real kicker is that Trump is president of the United States .
The Times reports that credit card revenue at many of his properties has begun to increase while he is in the White House as @ @ @ @ @ @ @ get in his good graces drive business to him .
He has an unresolved $ 70 million audit conflict over a tax refund he claimed with an IRS he currently oversees .
He also has an enormous amount of debt , which for any other public servant would be an obstacle to holding their job .
“ There ’ s an enormous amount of evidence of self-dealing and using the presidency itself to try to dig his way out , ” Clausing said .
Trump is the type of guy the system helps @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of a relatively simple economic recipe : You give money to the wealthy , and they reinvest and spend it , thus benefiting everyone else .
But where is the evidence of that here ?
The Trump Organization employs people , sure , and contracts with other businesses , yes , but how many of them come out ahead ?
Trump has received so many advantages .
He has escaped sacrifice , financially and otherwise , time and time again , and been allowed to fail over and over again .
Trump is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ t an example of how a trickle-down system works in theory and in reality .
Amazon , for example , is doing gangbusters business during the pandemic , its CEO , Jeff Bezos , has made billions , and it has consistently paid little in taxes in recent years .
Meanwhile , it ended an extra $ 2 in hazard pay to front-line workers in June .
On top of the systemic advantages that people like Trump enjoy , they also have the means to avoid what little tax enforcement there is , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to do it .
The president has avoided paying taxes in the country he ’ s in charge of by losing and by fudging numbers .
In the current moment , with so many Americans in economic distress , it ’ s quite a contrast .
We ’ re two months past the expiration of expanded $ 600-a-month unemployment insurance under the CARES Act , and the message from congressional Republicans to millions of jobless people seems to be : Figure it out ; you should have made better choices .
It ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ don ’ t get sent .
“ It ’ s kind of depressing that this is the world we live in and that the president of the United States thinks it is okay that he pays less taxes than the poorest people in the country , ” Sarin said .
“ Even if that is what the tax code allows him to do legally , which it definitely does not , this is a fairly stunning indictment of him and of a tax system that is in desperate need of real reform.
” @ @ @ @ @ @ @ turn to Vox each month to understand what ’ s happening in the news , from the coronavirus crisis to a racial reckoning to what is , quite possibly , the most consequential presidential election of our lifetimes .
Our mission has never been more vital than it is in this moment : to empower you through understanding .
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The problem isn’t just Donald Trump deducting $70,000 in haircuts from his taxes or counting his family home in Westchester County as a business expense. It’s also the system that let him do it.
The New York Times’s blockbuster report on the president’s long-sought tax returns has sparked outrage in some corners about his tax bill and business practices. The Times discovered that Trump paid no federal income taxes at all for several years, and in 2016 and 2017, he paid just $750. It also revealed enormous losses Trump says he incurred on his businesses, many of which he used to later dramatically reduce what he owed to the government, an ongoing $100 million battle with the IRS, and more than $400 million in debt that’s about to come due.
It is clear that President Trump is not doing so hot, business-wise, and has made some bad bets. The Times investigation also suggests the president has made some legally questionable maneuvers with regard to his taxes — turns out a guy who lies a lot about everything also lies about his finances, to the public and potentially to the government. But it’s worth stepping back and examining the framework that enabled Trump: one with a litany of tricks and loopholes that allow the wealthy to avoid paying their fair share in taxes, and one that fails to enforce the laws in place to catch bad actors.
“We essentially have a two-tiered system in this country,” said Natasha Sarin, an assistant law professor at the University of Pennsylvania. “If you are wealthy and have at your disposal access to resources to figure out ways to toe the line with respect to tax laws or totally evade existing liabilities, there’s an infrastructure in place for you to do it, and it’s incredibly hard for the IRS to go after you.”
Some of what Trump appears to have done is par for the course in terms of tax tactics enlisted by businesses and rich people. Some of it is not, for a businessman and, perhaps more importantly, for a president.
“If you are wealthy and have at your disposal access to resources to figure out ways to toe the line with respect to tax laws or totally evade existing liabilities, there’s an infrastructure in place for you to do it, and it’s incredibly hard for the IRS to go after you”
“In the history of businesspeople that are unscrupulous and really aggressive with tax matters, [Trump] is not literally unique; it is definitely on the tail of distribution that’s more aggressive, likelier to be disputed by the IRS,” said Kimberly Clausing, an economist at Reed College. “There are other businesspeople in that tail. What there aren’t are presidents who are clearly using their office for financial gain.”
On all fronts, it is troublesome — even if some or much of it is legal, it feels a lot like cheating in a game that it isn’t even possible for most people to play. The self-proclaimed ultra-rich president of the United States is paying less in taxes than millions of Americans.
Rich people have all sorts of avenues for avoiding taxes — and avoiding enforcement
Much of what the Times investigation revealed Trump and his family to be doing is not normal or possibly even legal (more on that later), but some of it is. It is often better to be rich than poor in America, including when it comes to your taxes. The structure is more favorable to the wealthy, and it’s not being enforced well for those who break the rules — who disproportionately tend to be the wealthy.
The US tax system is often preferential to higher-income individuals and businesses and has become increasingly so in recent years. The $1.5 trillion tax cut bill Trump signed into law in 2017 disproportionately benefited corporations and the wealthy, including the types of businesses the president often deals in. And the CARES Act, the stimulus bill passed in March to help boost the economy amid the pandemic, also had in it many tax breaks to help the rich. The country’s richest families pay a lower tax rate than much of the middle class.
“The US system has a lot of loopholes that white, wealthy Americans benefit from,” said Dorothy Brown, a law professor at Emory University.
Real estate, in particular, is a tax-favored industry, meaning people like Trump get all sorts of deductions and perks. Robert Willens, a New York tax analyst and former managing director at Lehman Brothers, said in an email that he doesn’t think the president’s situation is “markedly different” from that of other real estate professionals on a number of fronts, such as conducting business through “pass-through entities” and blurring lines between what counts as a business expense and what’s a nondeductible personal expense, which sometimes isn’t an easy distinction. (A lunch with a client can be part business, part personal.)
“All in all, although the magnitude of the numbers involved here is substantial, it’s difficult to say that, at the end of the day, his situation is unprecedented or one not commonly encountered by many real estate professionals,” he said.
Rich people and businesses also have the benefit of having the funds to spend on lawyers and accountants to finagle their way out of taxes.
“If you’re a working person and you’re as unscrupulous as Donald Trump, you don’t have those same avenues for avoiding taxes as you do if you’re a wealthy business owner,” said Seth Hanlon, a senior fellow at the Center for American Progress. “Only people that are wealthy have expensive lawyers and accountants and own their businesses can do these things.”
This is part of what leaves the country with a tax gap — a difference between taxes that the IRS collects compared to what it is owed — that translates to meaningful dollars to the federal government. In recent research, Sarin and former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers estimate that the tax gap will total $7.5 trillion from 2020 to 2029. Much of the tax gap benefits the wealthy; Sarin and Summers estimate that underreporting is five times higher among people making more than $10 million annually than it is for those making under $200,000. Their rough estimate suggests that the top 1 percent account for 70 percent of uncollected taxes.
“If you are a normal person who makes a wage, your tax compliance is 99 percent. If you are a rich person who earns dividend income and real estate income and runs a proprietorship, your compliance rate could be as low as 45 percent,” Sarin said, citing IRS tax gap estimates. She and Summers project that restoring tax compliance efforts could generate $1 trillion over a decade.
The IRS, which is supposed to collect and enforce taxes, is hamstrung. Its budget has been reduced by about 20 percent since 2010. “This is where people get the idea, rightly or wrongly, that there is a bunch of tax avoidance going on at the top. And it’s hard for the IRS to police that, especially when their budget is suffering so badly,” said Kyle Pomerleau, a resident fellow at the American Enterprise Institute.
Budget cuts have disproportionately affected the IRS’s revenue agents, who are sophisticated and experienced enough to be able to decipher a rich person’s tax returns and figure out if they are evading taxes. Low-income Americans are just as or even more likely to be audited than the rich. “The audit rates for EITC [earned income tax credit] recipients are the same as for the top 1 percent now, which is crazy,” Hanlon said.
Ultimately, a lot of things fall through the cracks. For example, it’s not always easy to differentiate between personal and business expenditures, especially with tax returns that are as complex as Trump’s and the $70,000 in deductions for hairstyling during The Apprentice. “They just don’t have the resources to police every single return down to small $70,000 line items,” Pomerleau said. “I know that sentence sounds ridiculous, but for multimillion-dollar operations, $70,000 is not that much.”
Donald Trump’s tax avoidance seems extra bad
It is true that wealthy people and corporations get away with a lot in modern-day America. But many experts say that Trump appears to be particularly egregious, including with regard to what we know about not only his tax practices but also those of his family.
“This is not normal, even for wealthy people,” Hanlon said.
For a guy who has staked his personal brand on being a business genius, Trump appears not to be particularly great at business, or at least he wants the IRS to think he’s not. According to the Times report, which my colleague Andrew Prokop also wrote through highlights of, Trump has claimed in tax filings to have lost tons of money on his businesses. He reported more than $300 million in losses at his golf courses since 2000 and at least $55 million in losses at his Washington, DC, hotel that opened in 2016. Some of his businesses were doing well — Trump Tower consistently makes money, and The Apprentice was lucrative — but they weren’t doing well enough to stop him from using other losses to wipe out his tax bill.
“The typical billionaire businessperson’s tax returns would not look like that,” Clausing said. “Everyone gets unlucky occasionally, but the picture that emerges from the Times story is one of a pretty unsuccessful businessperson.”
There is a difference between tax avoidance, where people lessen tax liabilities to hold on to more of their money after taxes, and tax evasion, where people deliberately fail to pay or underpay taxes. But the line between what is and isn’t a crime isn’t always well defined.
“The real wealthy don’t save money on taxes by losing money and generating losses. The true wealthy in America have their wealth in investments that are taxed at a preferential rate. They build wealth with the help of federal tax policy, which taxes them less,” Brown said.
“Everyone gets unlucky occasionally, but the picture that emerges ... is one of a pretty unsuccessful businessperson”
It is also not clear whether Trump is being truthful in his tax returns about his finances. The president’s former personal lawyer Michael Cohen told Congress in 2019 that Trump inflated his total assets to obtain loans and then deflated them to reduce his taxes. “I don’t think those numbers are real. He lies about everything,” Brown said.
There is only so much experts can glean from Trump’s tax returns based on what the Times has released. The publication does not plan to make the documents it received public in order to protect its sources, and even if it were to, it wouldn’t tell us, for example, the president’s net worth.
Trump is likely losing quite a bit of money on his businesses, as his tax returns show, and taking advantage of tricks and loopholes in the tax system to reduce his bill. He also appears to be fudging details on expenses — for example, reportedly paying his daughter Ivanka Trump as a consultant in order to claim a tax break.
The real kicker is that Trump is president of the United States. The Times reports that credit card revenue at many of his properties has begun to increase while he is in the White House as his fans and those who seek to get in his good graces drive business to him. He has an unresolved $70 million audit conflict over a tax refund he claimed with an IRS he currently oversees. He also has an enormous amount of debt, which for any other public servant would be an obstacle to holding their job.
“There’s an enormous amount of evidence of self-dealing and using the presidency itself to try to dig his way out,” Clausing said.
Trump is the type of guy the system helps
Republicans have for decades argued in favor of a relatively simple economic recipe: You give money to the wealthy, and they reinvest and spend it, thus benefiting everyone else. But where is the evidence of that here? The Trump Organization employs people, sure, and contracts with other businesses, yes, but how many of them come out ahead? Trump has received so many advantages. He has escaped sacrifice, financially and otherwise, time and time again, and been allowed to fail over and over again.
Trump is an anomaly, and he isn’t an example of how a trickle-down system works in theory and in reality. Amazon, for example, is doing gangbusters business during the pandemic, its CEO, Jeff Bezos, has made billions, and it has consistently paid little in taxes in recent years. Meanwhile, it ended an extra $2 in hazard pay to front-line workers in June. On top of the systemic advantages that people like Trump enjoy, they also have the means to avoid what little tax enforcement there is, and a framework that makes it easier to do it.
The president has avoided paying taxes in the country he’s in charge of by losing and by fudging numbers. In the current moment, with so many Americans in economic distress, it’s quite a contrast. We’re two months past the expiration of expanded $600-a-month unemployment insurance under the CARES Act, and the message from congressional Republicans to millions of jobless people seems to be: Figure it out; you should have made better choices. It’s a message people like the president don’t get sent.
“It’s kind of depressing that this is the world we live in and that the president of the United States thinks it is okay that he pays less taxes than the poorest people in the country,” Sarin said. “Even if that is what the tax code allows him to do legally, which it definitely does not, this is a fairly stunning indictment of him and of a tax system that is in desperate need of real reform.”