vox--2020-10-31--Joe Biden has finally disclosed who is raising him big money just days before Election Day

Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden finally disclosed the roster of his biggest fundraisers on Saturday , unveiling the names of the 820 people who have helped him build a big-money juggernaut .
The list includes Biden surrogates like former South Bend , Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg and Rep. Adam Schiff ( D-CA ) ; Hollywood filmmakers like Lee Daniels and Jeffrey Katzenberg ; Silicon Valley billionaires like Reid Hoffman and Ron Conway .
The campaign did not specify how much these people raised for Biden efforts beyond that it was more than $ 100,000 .
The release on a Saturday @ @ @ @ @ @ @ : Election Day is on Tuesday , and more than 90 million people have already voted , having done so without clarity on who his largest fundraisers are or what influence they may have had on his candidacy .
Biden ’ s last-minute disclosure was a sharp departure from precedent in the Democratic Party , whose presidential candidates have regularly disclosed their so-called “ bundlers ” in a nod to transparency .
And that ’ s why campaign-finance reformers had grown concerned that Biden had not yet followed his predecessors Barack Obama and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ his bundlers for the general election .
Biden ’ s campaign had declined to answer inquiries about their bundlers until last week , when it told The New York Times that it would release their names by the end of October ( which ended Saturday . )
Both Obama and Clinton released updates on the list of people helping them raise big money at consistent intervals ; Biden ’ s only prior update came on a Friday evening just after Christmas in 2019 during the Democratic primary with about 230 names , before @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
“ Congratulations on clearing an artificially low bar they set for themselves that defeats the entire purpose of transparency — allowing voters to know who is funding the campaigns asking for their support before casting their ballots , ” said Tyson Brody , a Democratic operative who worked for Bernie Sanders and backs Biden , but is critical of the influence of large campaign contributors .
It makes strategic sense that the Biden campaign would not to draw attention to the bundlers who have helped him turn a lagging fundraising operation into @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to position himself as the candidate with the interest of the working and middle classes in mind , giving himself the nickname “ Middle-Class Joe , ” and casting the general election “ as a campaign between Scranton and Park Avenue.
” And so , the Biden campaign has tried to draw focus to its small-dollar , online fundraising operation , rather than the celebrities , Silicon Valley billionaires , and Wall Street executives whose support undercuts some of the campaign ’ s messaging .
That ’ s an especially important task for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are prone to draw the scorn of the left , which is already skeptical of Biden and wants to see big campaign contributors play a smaller role in politics .
And the Trump campaign hasn ’ t been in much of a place to argue for transparency .
Trump hasn ’ t released any information about his own bundlers at all .
So there ’ s been limited scrutiny .
The upshot of that is that the 90 million people who have already cast ballots ended up voting with incomplete information about the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ money that may have influenced those very votes .
The debate over bundler disclosure reflects a key campaign question of the Trump era : Should Trump ’ s own tactics set the standard for his Democratic rivals ?
Or should Democrats — who claim to prioritize reducing the role of money in politics — aspire to a higher , or at least the pre-Trump , standard ?
Campaigns are only legally required to disclose bundlers who are registered lobbyists — everything else is voluntary .
Trump and his most immediate GOP predecessor at @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Romney , declined to share any additional information .
But prior to their campaigns , there had been a bipartisan tradition of at least offering some information in order to help voters understand who carried unofficial influence in their campaign ; that was done by both John McCain and George W. Bush , who pioneered the modern bundling system and made being a bundler into something of a bragging right .
Bundlers do the often painstaking work of soliciting their networks for high-dollar campaign contributions : inviting their business associates to campaign events @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and recruiting more bundlers to serve alongside them .
Bundling can often end up be fiercely competitive , with campaigns closely tracking how much individuals have raised and bundlers sometimes finding themselves in competition for positions on leaderboards .
Although Biden released just a single tier of information on the amounts that his bundlers raised , the campaign privately has six different levels of membership for its finance committee : ranging from a “ Protector ” who helps the campaign raise $ 50,000 to a “ Biden Victory Partner ” who brings home @ @ @ @ @ @ @ campaign document seen by Recode .
Mementos that Biden has sent that top level of bundler include a gold-and-blue pin .
Despite his preference to talk about his low-dollar fundraising operation , Biden has built an impressive big-money machine .

Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden finally disclosed the roster of his biggest fundraisers on Saturday, unveiling the names of the 820 people who have helped him build a big-money juggernaut.
The list includes Biden surrogates like former South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg and Rep. Adam Schiff (D-CA); Hollywood filmmakers like Lee Daniels and Jeffrey Katzenberg; and Silicon Valley billionaires like Reid Hoffman and Ron Conway. The campaign did not specify how much these individuals raised for Biden beyond that it was more than $100,000.
The release on Saturday evening came at the last possible moment: Election Day is on Tuesday, and more than 90 million Americans have already voted, having done so without clarity on who Biden’s largest fundraisers are or what influence they may have had on his candidacy. Biden’s last-minute disclosure was a sharp departure from precedent in the Democratic Party, whose presidential candidates have regularly disclosed their so-called “bundlers” in a nod to transparency.
That’s why campaign-finance reformers were concerned that Biden had not yet followed his predecessors Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton’s lead in releasing his bundlers for the general election.
Biden’s campaign declined to answer inquiries about their bundlers until last week, when it told the New York Times that it would release their names by the end of October. Both Obama and Clinton released updates on the list of people helping them raise big money at consistent intervals; Biden’s only prior update came on a Friday evening just after Christmas in 2019 during the Democratic primary with about 230 names.
“Congratulations on clearing an artificially low bar they set for themselves that defeats the entire purpose of transparency — allowing voters to know who is funding the campaigns asking for their support before casting their ballots,” said Tyson Brody, a Democratic operative who worked for Sen. Bernie Sanders and backs Biden, but is critical of the influence of large campaign contributors.
It makes strategic sense that the Biden campaign would not draw attention to the bundlers who have helped him turn a lagging fundraising operation into a surprising powerhouse. Biden has worked to position himself as the candidate with the interest of the working and middle classes in mind, giving himself the nickname “Middle-Class Joe,” and casting the general election “as a campaign between Scranton and Park Avenue.”
The Biden campaign has tried to draw focus to its small-dollar, online fundraising operation, rather than the celebrities, Silicon Valley billionaires, and Wall Street executives whose support undercuts some of the campaign’s messaging. That’s an especially important task for Biden given that many of these characters are prone to draw the scorn of the left, which is already skeptical of Biden and wants to see big campaign contributors play a smaller role in politics.
And the Trump campaign hasn’t been in much of a place to argue for transparency. President Trump hasn’t released any information about his own bundlers.
So there’s been limited scrutiny. The upshot is that the 90 million people who have already cast ballots ended up voting with incomplete information about the people who helped the campaigns raise the money that may have influenced those very votes.
The debate over bundler disclosure reflects a key campaign question of the Trump era: Should Trump’s own tactics set the standard for his Democratic rivals? Or should Democrats — who claim to prioritize reducing the role of money in politics — aspire to a higher, or at least the pre-Trump, standard?
Campaigns are only legally required to disclose bundlers who are registered lobbyists — everything else is voluntary. Trump and his GOP predecessor at the top of the ticket, Sen. Mitt Romney, declined to share any additional information. But prior to their campaigns, there had been a bipartisan tradition of at least offering some information in order to help voters understand who carried unofficial influence in their campaign; that was done by both the late Sen. John McCain and former President George W. Bush, who pioneered the modern bundling system and made being a bundler into something of a bragging right.
Bundlers do the often painstaking work of soliciting their networks for high-dollar campaign contributions: inviting their business associates to campaign events, making introductions to campaign staffers, and recruiting more bundlers to serve alongside them. Bundling can often end up being fiercely competitive, with campaigns closely tracking how much individuals have raised, and bundlers sometimes finding themselves in competition for positions on leaderboards.
Although Biden released just a single tier of information on the amounts that his bundlers raised, the campaign privately has six different levels of membership for its finance committee: ranging from a “Protector” who helps the campaign raise $50,000 to a “Biden Victory Partner” who brings home $2.5 million, according to a campaign document seen by Recode. Mementos that Biden has sent to that top-level bundler include a gold-and-blue pin.
The Biden campaign sends out these buttons to the bundlers who have raised over $2.5 million for his bid.
A reminder of how the Joe Biden big-money machine works. pic.twitter.com/GRIYE0Otsl — Teddy Schleifer (@teddyschleifer) October 26, 2020
Despite his preference to talk about his low-dollar fundraising operation, Biden has built an impressive big-money machine.


vox--2020-10-31--With just days to go, Trump bets big on Pennsylvania

With just three days to go until Election Day , President Donald Trump is going all in on Pennsylvania , a state that could be crucial to his chances of winning reelection , with a hectic itinerary of rapid-fire campaign rallies .
The president is set to spend his whole day in Pennsylvania Saturday , and to return Sunday .
In the next two days he ’ ll also visit North Carolina , Georgia , Florida , and a slew of Midwestern swing states for a total of 17 rallies .
Despite record numbers of new coronavirus cases in the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ — many of those rallies have been jam-packed , with only sporadic mask-wearing and nonexistent social distancing .
This has led to concern that the rallies have , and will , lead to new infections ; a new study suggests that rallies held throughout the summer and early fall led to at least 30,000 cases and an estimated 700 deaths .
The one recent rally conducted in a safer manner — a Friday campaign stop in Rochester , Minnesota , where Democratic Gov .
Tim Walz required crowds to socially distance — ended @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Trump event , less than half an hour in total .
The dangers of the president ’ s rallies aside , Trump has used his final campaign events to make a scattered and grievance-ridden closing message .
In them , the president has held forth on topics ranging from conspiracy theories about Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden ’ s son , Hunter Biden — “ the biggest story anywhere in the world ” — to his own tax records , which were obtained by the New York Times last month .
The rallies @ @ @ @ @ @ @ by Trump standards .
According to CNN fact-checker Daniel Dale , the rallies have repeatedly featured lies on seven topics , including falsehoods about the state of the coronavirus pandemic and incorrect claims about voter fraud .
Beyond Trump ’ s aggrieved closing pitch , though , the frantic pace of campaign events underscores the electoral fix Trump has found himself in with just days to go .
As things stand , most reputable polling shows Trump trailing Biden in must-win swing states — and nationally .
If voting patterns reflect current polling @ @ @ @ @ @ @ victory has narrowed dramatically .
To eke out an Electoral College victory , Trump won ’ t just have to win the states where he trails Biden by a few points .
As Vox ’ s Andrew Prokop explained this week , Trump would also have to pick up electoral votes in states where polling currently shows him down between 5 and 9 percentage points .
Of those states , Pennsylvania — with its 20 electoral votes — is where polling shows Biden and Trump to be the closest .
Winning new support @ @ @ @ @ @ @ be an uphill battle for Trump , but his five rallies suggest his campaign believes it is a battle the president can win .
Trump is on defense as Biden presses his advantage Like Trump , Biden is spending the final days before the election working to shore up support in key states .
Along with former President Barack Obama , Biden spent Saturday in Michigan , which until 2016 was part of the party ’ s “ blue wall ” in the Electoral College , before then-nominee Hillary Clinton lost the state @ @ @ @ @ @ @ But the Biden campaign is also spending time trying to secure states that , until recently , were seen as reliably Republican .
Democratic vice presidential nominee Kamala Harris , for example , made a swing through Texas Friday , where polls show a close race .
And on Monday , Obama will travel to Georgia , which last voted for a Democratic presidential candidate in 1992 .
Not only does Georgia have 16 electoral votes on offer , but the state is home to two important Senate races this cycle .
Republican @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for a full six-year term , while Republicans Sen. Kelly Loeffler and Rep. Doug Collins , as well as Democrat Raphael Warnock , lead the race in a special election to fill retired Sen. Johnny Isakson ’ s seat .
Polls in Georgia have shown a presidential race nearly as tight as in Texas , and Biden currently holds a narrow lead in the FiveThirtyEight polling average .
Neither state is central to Biden ’ s path to an Electoral College win , however .
Unlike Trump , he has a broad path @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Florida , and North Carolina , among others , all of which backed Trump in 2016 .
And with three days to go , the former vice president has chosen to emphasize a simple message : “ I believe this election is about who we are as a nation , what we believe , and maybe most importantly , who we want to be , ” Biden told Georgia voters this week .
“ It ’ s about our essence ; it ’ s about what makes us Americans .
It ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Vox free for all ?
The United States is in the middle of one of the most consequential presidential elections of our lifetimes .
It ’ s essential that all Americans are able to access clear , concise information on what the outcome of the election could mean for their lives , and the lives of their families and communities .
That is our mission at Vox .
But our distinctive brand of explanatory journalism takes resources .
Even when the economy and the news advertising market recovers , your support will be @ @ @ @ @ @ @ work .
If you have already contributed , thank you .
If you haven ’ t , please consider helping everyone understand this presidential election : Contribute today from as little as $ 3 .

With just three days to go until Election Day, President Donald Trump is going all in on Pennsylvania, a state that could be crucial to his chances of winning reelection, with a hectic itinerary of rapid-fire campaign rallies.
The president is set to spend his whole day in Pennsylvania Saturday, and to return Sunday. In the next two days he’ll also visit North Carolina, Georgia, Florida, and a slew of Midwestern swing states for a total of 17 rallies.
Despite record numbers of new coronavirus cases in the US — nearly 99,000 on Friday alone — many of those rallies have been jam-packed, with only sporadic mask-wearing and nonexistent social distancing. This has led to concern that the rallies have, and will, lead to new infections; a new study suggests that rallies held throughout the summer and early fall led to at least 30,000 cases and an estimated 700 deaths.
Another way of looking at this: The President will hold 17 potential super-spreader events in the next few days as coronavirus cases surge across the country. https://t.co/3aSQDIadRh — Oliver Darcy (@oliverdarcy) October 30, 2020
The one recent rally conducted in a safer manner — a Friday campaign stop in Rochester, Minnesota, where Democratic Gov. Tim Walz required crowds to socially distance — ended up being far shorter than the usual Trump event, less than half an hour in total.
The dangers of the president’s rallies aside, Trump has used his final campaign events to make a scattered and grievance-ridden closing message.
In them, the president has held forth on topics ranging from conspiracy theories about Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden’s son, Hunter Biden — “the biggest story anywhere in the world” — to his own tax records, which were obtained by the New York Times last month.
Trump does not sound like a guy anticipating a big victory in 72 hours. His audience in Bucks County isn't really reacting as he drones on and on. pic.twitter.com/C2Gqf1BWnP — Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) October 31, 2020
The rallies have also been exceptionally dishonest, even by Trump standards. According to CNN fact-checker Daniel Dale, the rallies have repeatedly featured lies on seven topics, including falsehoods about the state of the coronavirus pandemic and incorrect claims about voter fraud.
Beyond Trump’s aggrieved closing pitch, though, the frantic pace of campaign events underscores the electoral fix Trump has found himself in with just days to go. As things stand, most reputable polling shows Trump trailing Biden in must-win swing states — and nationally.
If voting patterns reflect current polling, the president’s path to victory has narrowed dramatically. To eke out an Electoral College victory, Trump won’t just have to win the states where he trails Biden by a few points. As Vox’s Andrew Prokop explained this week, Trump would also have to pick up electoral votes in states where polling currently shows him down between 5 and 9 percentage points.
Of those states, Pennsylvania — with its 20 electoral votes — is where polling shows Biden and Trump to be the closest. Winning new support in the next few days there will be an uphill battle for Trump, but his five rallies suggest his campaign believes it is a battle the president can win.
Trump is on defense as Biden presses his advantage
Like Trump, Biden is spending the final days before the election working to shore up support in key states. Along with former President Barack Obama, Biden spent Saturday in Michigan, which until 2016 was part of the party’s “blue wall” in the Electoral College, before then-nominee Hillary Clinton lost the state by just three-tenths of a percent.
But the Biden campaign is also spending time trying to secure states that, until recently, were seen as reliably Republican.
Democratic vice presidential nominee Kamala Harris, for example, made a swing through Texas Friday, where polls show a close race. And on Monday, Obama will travel to Georgia, which last voted for a Democratic presidential candidate in 1992.
Not only does Georgia have 16 electoral votes on offer, but the state is home to two important Senate races this cycle. Republican incumbent David Perdue is facing Jon Ossoff for a full six-year term, while Republicans Sen. Kelly Loeffler and Rep. Doug Collins, as well as Democrat Raphael Warnock, lead the race in a special election to fill retired Sen. Johnny Isakson’s seat.
Polls in Georgia have shown a presidential race nearly as tight as in Texas, and Biden currently holds a narrow lead in the FiveThirtyEight polling average.
Neither state is central to Biden’s path to an Electoral College win, however. Unlike Trump, he has a broad path that includes possible wins in Arizona, Florida, and North Carolina, among others, all of which backed Trump in 2016.
And with three days to go, the former vice president has chosen to emphasize a simple message: “I believe this election is about who we are as a nation, what we believe, and maybe most importantly, who we want to be,” Biden told Georgia voters this week. “It’s about our essence; it’s about what makes us Americans. It’s that fundamental.”
ntribute today from as little as $3.


vox--2020-10-31--“We got our young man back”: A rescue in Nigeria gives Trump a late foreign policy win

An American hostage is safe and in the care of the US State Department , the Pentagon said Saturday , after a successful early morning rescue operation by US special forces in northern Nigeria .
The hostage , Philip Nathan Walton , was abducted by armed kidnappers in southern Niger on Tuesday this week ; his captors reportedly demanded a ransom of more than $ 1 million for his freedom .
According to the Washington Post , Walton , 27 , was rescued by members of the elite Seal Team 6 .
No US troops were harmed in the rescue @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that all but one of the kidnappers were killed .
“ We appreciate the support of our international partners in conducting this operation , ” Pentagon spokesman Jonathan Hoffman said .
“ The United States will continue to protect our people and our interests anywhere in the world.
” President Donald Trump also celebrated Walton ’ s return , and used the rescue to burnish his foreign policy credentials at a campaign rally Saturday in Newton , Pennsylvania .
“ We got our young man back , but the other side suffered gravely @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ” Trump said .
“ We ’ ve gotten many hostages home .
And I pay nothing , nothing .
Can ’ t pay .
Once you pay , you ’ ll have many many more.
” Watson isn ’ t the only American to be kidnapped in West Africa in recent years ; at least one other American , aid worker Jeffery Woodke , is believed to still be in Mali after a 2016 kidnapping in central Niger .
But the US has recovered a number of hostages successfully during the Trump @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and North Korea .
These successes — much like the successful special-forces rescue of Walton in Nigeria — are precisely the kind of foreign policy victories Trump likes to highlight .
His current national security adviser , Robert O ’ Brien , was the US special envoy for hostage affairs until 2019 , and in August , the Republican National Convention prominently featured six Americans previously held hostage abroad in a conversation with Trump .
And although Trump has shown little interest in working with longtime US allies in the international community during @ @ @ @ @ @ @ has attempted to put a heavy focus on foreign policy in the closing months of the 2020 presidential campaign .
In addition to Saturday ’ s rescue operation , Trump announced a peace deal between Israel and Sudan earlier this month , following on the heels of a similar agreement between Israel and the United Arab Emirates in August to normalize diplomatic relations .
Israel and Bahrain also agreed to normalize relations in September , while Serbia and Kosovo both pledged to open embassies in Jerusalem , which the US recognizes as the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s Alex Ward , the agreements are “ momentous ... by almost any conceivable measure ” — but there ’ s an incontrovertible electoral angle at play too .
The Trump campaign pushed heavily for a foreign policy-focused debate with Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden earlier this month , and it ’ s no wonder : As Ward points out , it ’ s arguably firmer ground for the president than any of a number of domestic issues , such as “ the coronavirus , the economy , race relations , and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s leadership has been disastrous .
But while Trump has had some foreign policy successes , his overall record is fraught .
Ward notes that among ( many ) other issues : Biden also has a wealth of foreign policy experience of his own to emphasize as Election Day approaches .
Even before eight years in the White House as vice president to President Barack Obama , Biden served as chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee .
In August , former Biden adviser James Rubin told Ward that “ [ Biden ] @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that ’ s unmatched on foreign policy experience.
” Occasional tweets aside , Trump himself has said relatively little about foreign policy on the campaign trail .
During his Pennsylvania rally Saturday , for instance , the president began his remarks with conspiracy theories about Joe Biden and his family , campaign spending , and fake news before turning to the Nigeria rescue .
In general , the president has spent far more time iterating some of his 2016 hits , including a new spin on “ lock her up.
” The White @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to highlight the topic .
On Friday , it promoted “ the Trump Doctrine : Terrorists Lose and Peace Wins.
” Trump ’ s surrogates have also emphasized the elements of his foreign policy .
On Saturday , Donald Trump Jr. , the president ’ s eldest son , tweeted , “ With Trump , the world knows that harming an American has consequences , whether you ’ re a terrorist leader like al-Baghdadi or Soleimani , or these now-deceased kidnappers in Niger/Nigeria.
” Will you help keep Vox free for all ?
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ of one of the most consequential presidential elections of our lifetimes .
It ’ s essential that all Americans are able to access clear , concise information on what the outcome of the election could mean for their lives , and the lives of their families and communities .
That is our mission at Vox .
But our distinctive brand of explanatory journalism takes resources .
Even when the economy and the news advertising market recovers , your support will be a critical part of sustaining our resource-intensive work .
If you have @ @ @ @ @ @ @ you haven ’ t , please consider helping everyone understand this presidential election : Contribute today from as little as $ 3 .

An American hostage is safe and in the care of the US State Department, the Pentagon said Saturday, after a successful early morning rescue operation by US special forces in northern Nigeria.
The hostage, Philip Nathan Walton, was abducted by armed kidnappers in southern Niger on Tuesday this week; his captors reportedly demanded a ransom of more than $1 million for his freedom. According to the Washington Post, Walton, 27, was rescued by members of the elite Seal Team 6.
No US troops were harmed in the rescue, and the New York Times reports that all but one of the kidnappers were killed.
“We appreciate the support of our international partners in conducting this operation,” Pentagon spokesman Jonathan Hoffman said. “The United States will continue to protect our people and our interests anywhere in the world.”
President Donald Trump also celebrated Walton’s return, and used the rescue to burnish his foreign policy credentials at a campaign rally Saturday in Newton, Pennsylvania.
“We got our young man back, but the other side suffered gravely, I can tell you that,” Trump said. “We’ve gotten many hostages home. And I pay nothing, nothing. Can’t pay. Once you pay, you’ll have many many more.”
Recovering Americans captured abroad is a bright spot in Trump’s foreign policy record
Watson isn’t the only American to be kidnapped in West Africa in recent years; at least one other American, aid worker Jeffery Woodke, is believed to still be in Mali after a 2016 kidnapping in central Niger. But the US has recovered a number of hostages successfully during the Trump administration, including ones held in Yemen and North Korea.
These successes — much like the successful special-forces rescue of Walton in Nigeria — are precisely the kind of foreign policy victories Trump likes to highlight. His current national security adviser, Robert O’Brien, was the US special envoy for hostage affairs until 2019, and in August, the Republican National Convention prominently featured six Americans previously held hostage abroad in a conversation with Trump.
And although Trump has shown little interest in working with longtime US allies in the international community during his time in office, his administration has attempted to put a heavy focus on foreign policy in the closing months of the 2020 presidential campaign.
In addition to Saturday’s rescue operation, Trump announced a peace deal between Israel and Sudan earlier this month, following on the heels of a similar agreement between Israel and the United Arab Emirates in August to normalize diplomatic relations.
Israel and Bahrain also agreed to normalize relations in September, while Serbia and Kosovo both pledged to open embassies in Jerusalem, which the US recognizes as the capital of Israel.
According to Vox’s Alex Ward, the agreements are “momentous... by almost any conceivable measure” — but there’s an incontrovertible electoral angle at play too.
The Trump campaign pushed heavily for a foreign policy-focused debate with Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden earlier this month, and it’s no wonder: As Ward points out, it’s arguably firmer ground for the president than any of a number of domestic issues, such as “the coronavirus, the economy, race relations, and climate change,” where Trump’s leadership has been disastrous.
But while Trump has had some foreign policy successes, his overall record is fraught. Ward notes that among (many) other issues:
Biden also has a wealth of foreign policy experience of his own to emphasize as Election Day approaches. Even before eight years in the White House as vice president to President Barack Obama, Biden served as chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. In August, former Biden adviser James Rubin told Ward that “[Biden] will come into office with a résumé that’s unmatched on foreign policy experience.”
Occasional tweets aside, Trump himself has said relatively little about foreign policy on the campaign trail. During his Pennsylvania rally Saturday, for instance, the president began his remarks with conspiracy theories about Joe Biden and his family, campaign spending, and fake news before turning to the Nigeria rescue. In general, the president has spent far more time iterating some of his 2016 hits, including a new spin on “lock her up.”
People bellow out "lock him up!" about Joe Biden at Trump's rally in Bucks County, Pennsylvania pic.twitter.com/XdqCKH9wgE — Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) October 31, 2020
The White House itself, though, has worked to highlight the topic. On Friday, it promoted “the Trump Doctrine: Terrorists Lose and Peace Wins.”
Trump’s surrogates have also emphasized the elements of his foreign policy. On Saturday, Donald Trump Jr., the president’s eldest son, tweeted, “With Trump, the world knows that harming an American has consequences, whether you’re a terrorist leader like al-Baghdadi or Soleimani, or these now-deceased kidnappers in Niger/Nigeria.”
ntribute today from as little as $3.


vox--2020-10-31--Black and Latino turnout lags white turnout in some key states. Democrats shouldn’t panic (yet).

On Friday , a mere four days before Election Day , Bloomberg ran an article that seemed designed to give Democrats a heart attack .
“ Senior officials on Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden ’ s campaign are increasingly worried about insufficient Black and Latino voter turnout in key states like Florida and Pennsylvania , ” the piece began .
It then warned that , despite record turnout throughout the country , turnout among certain minority groups lags behind white people in important states .
“ In Florida , half of Latino and Black registered voters have not yet voted @ @ @ @ @ @ @ have cast ballots , ” Bloomberg reporter Tyler Pager wrote .
He added that “ in Pennsylvania , nearly 75 % of registered Black voters have not yet voted.
” A day later , the Associated Press published a piece suggesting that Democrats have less reason to worry .
“ So far , about 9 % of the early vote has been cast by African-Americans , about on par with the 10 % of the electorate Black voters made up in 2016 , ” the AP reported .
It also pointed to states @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the percentage of early ballots cast by Black voters roughly tracks with the share of African Americans in the state ’ s overall population .
So what ’ s actually going on here ?
One possible answer is that the stories told by Bloomberg and the AP aren ’ t necessarily in tension .
It ’ s possible that Black and Latino turnout lags in Florida and Pennsylvania , but Black turnout is keeping pace in North Carolina and Georgia .
( It ’ s also worth noting that there are some indications @ @ @ @ @ @ @ relative to 2016 nominee Hillary Clinton , even as he is overperforming among white people . )
It is likely that the raw numbers in the Bloomberg article are accurate — but that ’ s not necessarily a reason for Democrats to panic .
Many experts anticipated that , at this point in the election , white turnout would exceed turnout among certain voters of color because white voters are more likely to cast their ballot by mail .
As Myrna Pérez , an expert on voting rights and voter suppression with the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Committee last June , “ there has historically been a racial and age disparity in the use of vote by mail.
” And there is at least some evidence that this gap continued to exist during the Covid-19 pandemic .
“ As of May 3 , ” Pérez told the Judiciary Committee , “ 26.6 % of White registered voters in Georgia had requested mail ballots for the June 9 primary , while just 18.5 % of Black voters and 12 % of Latino voters had done so.
” Pérez ’ s view @ @ @ @ @ @ @ elections expert at the Cook Political Report , who tweeted in response to the Bloomberg report that “ polling has told us all along that Black/Latino Dems are more skeptical of [ voting by mail ] than white Dems.
” But all signs point to absolutely massive turnout in the 2020 election .
In 2016 , about 138 million Americans cast a ballot in that year ’ s general election .
By contrast , over 90 million voters have already cast a ballot in the 2020 election , according to University of Florida @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Project .
That means that , days before Election Day , about two-thirds as many voters have voted in the 2020 election as those who cast a ballot in 2016 .
In some states , such as Texas , 2020 turnout already exceeds the total turnout in 2016 .
According to McDonald , just under two-thirds of the over 90 million ballots already cast were mail ballots .
So , while early in-person ballots do play a significant role in this election — nearly 33 million people have voted early and in person @ @ @ @ @ @ @ already cast a ballot have done so by mail .
And white voters are likely to be overrepresented among this group .
None of this means that Democrats , who typically rely on a multiracial coalition to elect their candidates , can relax .
Those running for public office would always prefer to have tens of millions of votes already cast in their favor rather than rely on people turning out to the polls in the future .
And many election analysts point to reduced turnout among African Americans for Hillary Clinton in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ coalition in 2008 as one reason for her loss .
If many Black and Latino voters plan to wait until Election Day to cast their ballot , the presidential election could turn on how many of them actually show up .
And many voters of color are likely to be forced to wait in long lines on Election Day , in part because several key states have closed polling places in Black and brown neighborhoods .
But a ballot cast on Election Day counts no more and no less than a ballot cast @ @ @ @ @ @ @ voters do turn out , Democrats do not need to worry if these voters decided not to vote by mail .
Will you help keep Vox free for all ?
The United States is in the middle of one of the most consequential presidential elections of our lifetimes .
It ’ s essential that all Americans are able to access clear , concise information on what the outcome of the election could mean for their lives , and the lives of their families and communities .
That is our mission at Vox .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ takes resources .
Even when the economy and the news advertising market recovers , your support will be a critical part of sustaining our resource-intensive work .
If you have already contributed , thank you .
If you haven ’ t , please consider helping everyone understand this presidential election : Contribute today from as little as $ 3 .

On Friday, a mere four days before Election Day, Bloomberg ran an article that seemed designed to give Democrats a heart attack. “Senior officials on Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden’s campaign are increasingly worried about insufficient Black and Latino voter turnout in key states like Florida and Pennsylvania,” the piece began.
It then warned that, despite record turnout throughout the country, turnout among certain minority groups lags behind white people in important states. “In Florida, half of Latino and Black registered voters have not yet voted but more than half of White voters have cast ballots,” Bloomberg reporter Tyler Pager wrote. He added that “in Pennsylvania, nearly 75% of registered Black voters have not yet voted.”
A day later, the Associated Press published a piece suggesting that Democrats have less reason to worry. “So far, about 9% of the early vote has been cast by African-Americans, about on par with the 10% of the electorate Black voters made up in 2016,” the AP reported. It also pointed to states like North Carolina and Georgia, where the percentage of early ballots cast by Black voters roughly tracks with the share of African Americans in the state’s overall population.
So what’s actually going on here? One possible answer is that the stories told by Bloomberg and the AP aren’t necessarily in tension. It’s possible that Black and Latino turnout lags in Florida and Pennsylvania, but Black turnout is keeping pace in North Carolina and Georgia. (It’s also worth noting that there are some indications that Biden is underperforming among Latino voters relative to 2016 nominee Hillary Clinton, even as he is overperforming among white people.)
It is likely that the raw numbers in the Bloomberg article are accurate — but that’s not necessarily a reason for Democrats to panic. Many experts anticipated that, at this point in the election, white turnout would exceed turnout among certain voters of color because white voters are more likely to cast their ballot by mail.
As Myrna Pérez, an expert on voting rights and voter suppression with the Brennan Center, told the House Judiciary Committee last June, “there has historically been a racial and age disparity in the use of vote by mail.” And there is at least some evidence that this gap continued to exist during the Covid-19 pandemic.
“As of May 3,” Pérez told the Judiciary Committee, “26.6% of White registered voters in Georgia had requested mail ballots for the June 9 primary, while just 18.5% of Black voters and 12% of Latino voters had done so.”
Pérez’s view was echoed by Dave Wasserman, an elections expert at the Cook Political Report, who tweeted in response to the Bloomberg report that “polling has told us all along that Black/Latino Dems are more skeptical of [voting by mail] than white Dems.”
But all signs point to absolutely massive turnout in the 2020 election. In 2016, about 138 million Americans cast a ballot in that year’s general election. By contrast, over 90 million voters have already cast a ballot in the 2020 election, according to University of Florida professor Michael McDonald’s US Elections Project.
That means that, days before Election Day, about two-thirds as many voters have voted in the 2020 election as those who cast a ballot in 2016. In some states, such as Texas, 2020 turnout already exceeds the total turnout in 2016.
According to McDonald, just under two-thirds of the over 90 million ballots already cast were mail ballots. So, while early in-person ballots do play a significant role in this election — nearly 33 million people have voted early and in person — the bulk of voters who have already cast a ballot have done so by mail. And white voters are likely to be overrepresented among this group.
None of this means that Democrats, who typically rely on a multiracial coalition to elect their candidates, can relax. Those running for public office would always prefer to have tens of millions of votes already cast in their favor rather than rely on people turning out to the polls in the future. And many election analysts point to reduced turnout among African Americans for Hillary Clinton in 2016 compared to Obama’s winning coalition in 2008 as one reason for her loss.
If many Black and Latino voters plan to wait until Election Day to cast their ballot, the presidential election could turn on how many of them actually show up. And many voters of color are likely to be forced to wait in long lines on Election Day, in part because several key states have closed polling places in Black and brown neighborhoods.
But a ballot cast on Election Day counts no more and no less than a ballot cast in advance. If Black and Latino voters do turn out, Democrats do not need to worry if these voters decided not to vote by mail.


vox--2020-10-31--How a Michelin-starred restaurant became a pandemic takeout joint

When Jeremiah Langhorne , the James Beard Award-winning chef behind the celebrated Dabney restaurant in Washington , DC , first adapted to the pandemic in March , his refined kitchen began to fill takeout orders on a mass scale .
Langhorne , who co-owns the Dabney , was in survival mode , and customers were hungry for the comfort food he was serving .
However , after an initially enthusiastic reception , orders dried up .
He realized the fixed $ 45 price might be too much for some , so he added a new option : “ meat and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , people could order some catfish or fried chicken with collard greens , mac and cheese , and another side .
But that concept fizzled quickly , too .
Even as other high-end restaurateurs began to reopen in the area , Langhorne put off a return to indoor dining .
In July , he launched an outdoor pop-up where guests could enjoy soft shell crabs and hush puppies with a beer .
The concept was popular , but not especially profitable .
Langhorne , who has spent the pandemic trying to keep his @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , became increasingly despondent .
A chef known for his use of local ingredients , he used slow weeks to go on foraging expeditions and visit his fishermen suppliers .
He discovered a new way to use a local sarsaparilla root to imbue a duck dish .
Finally , Langhorne decided he could stay closed no longer .
On Friday , October 23 , the Dabney reopened its doors with a four-course prix-fixe menu .
I spoke with Langhorne about his experiences running the restaurant during the Covid-19 pandemic .
What follows is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ edited for length and clarity .
When the pandemic hit in March , you switched to a takeout model .
You ’ re a James Beard Award-winning chef .
What was that experience like for you ?
Overall , I wouldn ’ t say it ’ s a good one .
I worked hard , really hard to get to the point where I could make food in a way that I thought it should be made .
Takeout food doesn ’ t really fit into that category .
Obviously , there are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ can do well in that environment .
It was very difficult for us to try to make that transition .
We really had to alter our cuisine quite a bit .
In the beginning , takeout was working .
And then I think people got pandemic fatigue .
I think people got fatigue of everything — of life — and takeout started to drop off pretty dramatically .
Is that when you started the Summer Rental pop-up in July , and trying other things ?
Yes , exactly .
I have a glass-half-full @ @ @ @ @ @ @ part .
We have a really strong team , and I really felt like we could think our way out of it , so to speak .
We were trying to come up with ideas , and maybe one of them would catch on and supplement [ takeout ] as much as possible .
At one point we thought , “ Okay , well , maybe it ’ s a little bit of a heavy lift financially to be asking every guest to pay $ 45 for a prix-fixe takeout menu.
” And @ @ @ @ @ @ @ do the meat-and-threes thing on Wednesday — to have a good amount of food at a much cheaper price that wasn ’ t so fussy , that could be a meal that someone just picked up on their way home .
So we tried that .
For the first few Wednesdays it was , and then we started seeing it kind of drop off a little bit .
I don ’ t think anybody really knew about it , for the most part .
It didn ’ t really get any publicity .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ where it wasn ’ t really worth it .
Every single time a restaurant tries something new , there ’ s a lot of work behind the scenes .
So having crazy new themes can get exhausting pretty quickly if they ’ re not panning out .
Summer Rental was creative and fun .
You had soft shell crab BLTs .
That was my brainchild .
I loved it .
My wife and I , every single summer for the past 15 years we ’ ve been going up to Cape Cod for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ normally — well , pre-Covid — but that was our one vacation where we really did nothing .
[ We would just ] go to little beach bars and grab seafood and just relax .
I really wanted to do something that was going to be a little more fun and also be totally safe .
And so that ’ s where Summer Rental came from .
Did you find customers were ready to come back , especially if they could sit outside ?
Summer Rental was , from a bookings point of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ wasn ’ t as successful financially just because there ’ s no way to guarantee a guest average — how much money each guest is going to spend .
Some people wanted to just have a beer and some hush puppies , and some people wanted to have a full meal .
So as the summer started to wind down , we decided that Fall Rental wouldn ’ t have the same ring .
But it just didn ’ t make as much sense from a business standpoint , either .
You did @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and check out rockfish in the Chesapeake Bay .
That ’ s actually been one of the silver linings .
To a certain extent , I didn ’ t need to be there as much , and so I decided to go back to what we did at the beginning [ of the Dabney ] and start to visit a lot of our farmers and fishermen .
You had wanted to ride out the pandemic and were very conservative about reopening .
Can you talk about your decision to reopen , which you @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ?
Originally , people were like , “ Oh well , maybe we ’ ll do this for two weeks or we ’ ll be back at it in a month.
” I don ’ t think anybody anticipated it dragging out this long .
I truly believed that there was going to be some sort of a solution found before we got to the point that we ’ re in now — and have been in for the past month .
One thing we realized , having stayed closed so much longer @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a lot of our colleagues operate in a way that was safe .
They were able to do it , and they were following the protocols , and things were going okay .
When you get to the point where you realize this could go on indefinitely — it doesn ’ t make sense to stay closed .
Yeah .
And it ’ s funny — that was one of my biggest concerns .
When you have a restaurant and it ’ s been closed , and you don ’ t get to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ t get to see the community for that long a period of time , it really starts to make you wonder : “ Is everyone gon na still wan na come ?
Have people changed their routines and the way they look at the world ?
” I was very nervous about that , but luckily we ’ ve been able to book up all the reservations pretty quickly .
What made you go back with a prix-fixe model ?
It ’ s just a function of survival .
With restaurants only being @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and that ’ s kind of a fallacy too , because it ’ s only 50 percent capacity if you have the space in your dining room to space everybody out appropriately .
We don ’ t actually get to 50 percent capacity .
We get to more like 30 percent capacity .
And the bottom line is : Every single chair really matters , and there ’ s a certain amount of money that we have to get out of it to survive , to even break even .
So I think @ @ @ @ @ @ @ restaurants [ that operate ] at a high level going to prix-fixe models , because they don ’ t have a choice .
Winter is coming .
Do you have outdoor seating ?
We have a little bit .
For us , it ’ s been a little tough because we don ’ t really have the space to expand outdoors .
Summer Rental was fine because the idea was to be very casual .
But in order for it to be sustainable , we would really need to give full Dabney service @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ re used to for our indoor dining .
With the restrictions that have been imposed on restaurants , it ’ s almost impossible to really make money anymore , or to even break even in some cases .
Every seat really counts , and it really matters how they ’ re set up .
Help keep Vox free for all Millions turn to Vox each month to understand what ’ s happening in the news , from the coronavirus crisis to a racial reckoning to what is , quite possibly , the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Our mission has never been more vital than it is in this moment : to empower you through understanding .
But our distinctive brand of explanatory journalism takes resources .
Even when the economy and the news advertising market recovers , your support will be a critical part of sustaining our resource-intensive work .
If you have already contributed , thank you .
If you haven ’ t , please consider helping everyone make sense of an increasingly chaotic world : Contribute today from as little as $ 3 .

When Jeremiah Langhorne, the James Beard Award-winning chef behind the celebrated Dabney restaurant in Washington, DC, first adapted to the pandemic in March, his refined kitchen began to fill takeout orders on a mass scale. Langhorne, who co-owns the Dabney, was in survival mode, and customers were hungry for the comfort food he was serving. However, after an initially enthusiastic reception, orders dried up.
He realized the fixed $45 price might be too much for some, so he added a new option: “meat and threes” Wednesdays. For $20, people could order some catfish or fried chicken with collard greens, mac and cheese, and another side. But that concept fizzled quickly, too.
Even as other high-end restaurateurs began to reopen in the area, Langhorne put off a return to indoor dining. In July, he launched an outdoor pop-up where guests could enjoy soft shell crabs and hush puppies with a beer. The concept was popular, but not especially profitable. Langhorne, who has spent the pandemic trying to keep his restaurant afloat while also following safety protocols, became increasingly despondent.
A chef known for his use of local ingredients, he used slow weeks to go on foraging expeditions and visit his fishermen suppliers. He discovered a new way to use a local sarsaparilla root to imbue a duck dish. Finally, Langhorne decided he could stay closed no longer. On Friday, October 23, the Dabney reopened its doors with a four-course prix-fixe menu.
I spoke with Langhorne about his experiences running the restaurant during the Covid-19 pandemic. What follows is a transcript of our conversation, lightly edited for length and clarity.
Suzanne Smalley
When the pandemic hit in March, you switched to a takeout model. You’re a James Beard Award-winning chef. What was that experience like for you?
Jeremiah Langhorne
Overall, I wouldn’t say it’s a good one. I worked hard, really hard to get to the point where I could make food in a way that I thought it should be made. Takeout food doesn’t really fit into that category. Obviously, there are certain dishes, cuisines, things that can do well in that environment. It was very difficult for us to try to make that transition. We really had to alter our cuisine quite a bit.
In the beginning, takeout was working. And then I think people got pandemic fatigue. I think people got fatigue of everything — of life — and takeout started to drop off pretty dramatically.
Suzanne Smalley
Is that when you started the Summer Rental pop-up in July, and trying other things?
Jeremiah Langhorne
Yes, exactly. I have a glass-half-full outlook on things, for the most part. We have a really strong team, and I really felt like we could think our way out of it, so to speak. We were trying to come up with ideas, and maybe one of them would catch on and supplement [takeout] as much as possible.
At one point we thought, “Okay, well, maybe it’s a little bit of a heavy lift financially to be asking every guest to pay $45 for a prix-fixe takeout menu.” And that’s why we started to do the meat-and-threes thing on Wednesday — to have a good amount of food at a much cheaper price that wasn’t so fussy, that could be a meal that someone just picked up on their way home. So we tried that.
Suzanne Smalley
Was that successful?
Jeremiah Langhorne
For the first few Wednesdays it was, and then we started seeing it kind of drop off a little bit. I don’t think anybody really knew about it, for the most part. It didn’t really get any publicity. So it eventually got to the point where it wasn’t really worth it.
Every single time a restaurant tries something new, there’s a lot of work behind the scenes. So having crazy new themes can get exhausting pretty quickly if they’re not panning out.
Suzanne Smalley
Summer Rental was creative and fun. You had soft shell crab BLTs.
Jeremiah Langhorne
That was my brainchild. I loved it. My wife and I, every single summer for the past 15 years we’ve been going up to Cape Cod for a break. I travel a lot normally — well, pre-Covid — but that was our one vacation where we really did nothing. [We would just] go to little beach bars and grab seafood and just relax.
I really wanted to do something that was going to be a little more fun and also be totally safe. And so that’s where Summer Rental came from.
Suzanne Smalley
Did you find customers were ready to come back, especially if they could sit outside?
Jeremiah Langhorne
Summer Rental was, from a bookings point of view, successful. Unfortunately, it wasn’t as successful financially just because there’s no way to guarantee a guest average — how much money each guest is going to spend.
Some people wanted to just have a beer and some hush puppies, and some people wanted to have a full meal. So as the summer started to wind down, we decided that Fall Rental wouldn’t have the same ring. But it just didn’t make as much sense from a business standpoint, either.
Suzanne Smalley
You did find time to forage for new roots and check out rockfish in the Chesapeake Bay.
Jeremiah Langhorne
That’s actually been one of the silver linings. To a certain extent, I didn’t need to be there as much, and so I decided to go back to what we did at the beginning [of the Dabney] and start to visit a lot of our farmers and fishermen.
Suzanne Smalley
You had wanted to ride out the pandemic and were very conservative about reopening. Can you talk about your decision to reopen, which you did last Friday [October 23]?
Jeremiah Langhorne
Originally, people were like, “Oh well, maybe we’ll do this for two weeks or we’ll be back at it in a month.” I don’t think anybody anticipated it dragging out this long. I truly believed that there was going to be some sort of a solution found before we got to the point that we’re in now — and have been in for the past month.
One thing we realized, having stayed closed so much longer, [is] that we saw a lot of our colleagues operate in a way that was safe. They were able to do it, and they were following the protocols, and things were going okay.
When you get to the point where you realize this could go on indefinitely — it doesn’t make sense to stay closed.
Suzanne Smalley
It’s been busy?
Jeremiah Langhorne
Yeah. And it’s funny — that was one of my biggest concerns. When you have a restaurant and it’s been closed, and you don’t get to see your guests and you don’t get to see the community for that long a period of time, it really starts to make you wonder: “Is everyone gonna still wanna come? Have people changed their routines and the way they look at the world?” I was very nervous about that, but luckily we’ve been able to book up all the reservations pretty quickly.
Suzanne Smalley
What made you go back with a prix-fixe model?
Jeremiah Langhorne
It’s just a function of survival. With restaurants only being able to do 50 percent capacity — and that’s kind of a fallacy too, because it’s only 50 percent capacity if you have the space in your dining room to space everybody out appropriately. We don’t actually get to 50 percent capacity. We get to more like 30 percent capacity.
And the bottom line is: Every single chair really matters, and there’s a certain amount of money that we have to get out of it to survive, to even break even. So I think that’s why you see most restaurants [that operate] at a high level going to prix-fixe models, because they don’t have a choice.
Suzanne Smalley
Winter is coming. Do you have outdoor seating?
Jeremiah Langhorne
We have a little bit. For us, it’s been a little tough because we don’t really have the space to expand outdoors. Summer Rental was fine because the idea was to be very casual. But in order for it to be sustainable, we would really need to give full Dabney service out there at the price that we’re used to for our indoor dining. With the restrictions that have been imposed on restaurants, it’s almost impossible to really make money anymore, or to even break even in some cases. Every seat really counts, and it really matters how they’re set up.
ntribute today from as little as $3.


vox--2020-10-31--Study: Trump rallies may be responsible for an estimated 700 Covid-19 deaths

A study conducted by four Stanford University economic researchers determined that 18 Trump campaign rallies , the bulk of which took place over the past summer , “ ultimately resulted in more than 30,000 incremental confirmed cases of COVID-19 ” and “ likely led to more than 700 deaths.
” The study examined 18 counties that hosted Trump rallies in locations such as Tulsa , Oklahoma ; Phoenix , Arizona ; and Winston-Salem , North Carolina , held between June 20 and September 22 .
It then compared the rate of post-rally Covid-19 infections in the host counties to that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a rally .
Attendance at individual rallies varied , but Trump often draws thousands of supporters to these events .
“ For the vast majority of county matching procedures we employ , ” the authors wrote , “ our estimate of the average treatment effect across the eighteen rallies implies that they increased subsequent confirmed cases of COVID-19 by more than 250 per 100,000 residents.
” The researchers — B. Douglas Bernheim , an economics professor at Stanford , and Stanford grad students Nina Buchmann , Zach Freitas-Groff , and Sebastián Otero — @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , concluding that the rallies led to thousands of new infections and , likely , hundreds of deaths .
As the authors acknowledge , trying to identify exactly how many infections resulted from a Trump rally ( or any other potential superspreader event ) is not easy .
Factors such as whether the rally is held indoor or outdoor , whether a large number of infected people attended , whether attendees wore masks , and “ the distribution of infected individuals among rally attendees ” can all lead to vastly different rates of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ estimate Trump ’ s summer rallies led to more than 700 deaths , they note those deaths were “ not necessarily among attendees.
” For example , a rally-goer may become infected with a mild case , but that same rally-goer might give the virus to his wife , who gives it to a coworker , who gives it to their sister , who dies of Covid-19 .
Nevertheless , the average discrepancies between the number of infections in counties hosting Trump rallies and the infection rates in other , similar counties suggest @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s campaign events were superspreader events , potentially responsible for hundreds of lost lives .
Earlier this month , Dr. Anthony Fauci , director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases , warned that Trump was “ asking for trouble ” by hosting mass political rallies as the number of Covid-19 infections surge .
But Fauci ’ s warning does not appear to have deterred the president , who reportedly plans to host 14 rallies in the final three days of the 2020 campaign .
Will you help keep Vox free @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in the middle of one of the most consequential presidential elections of our lifetimes .
It ’ s essential that all Americans are able to access clear , concise information on what the outcome of the election could mean for their lives , and the lives of their families and communities .
That is our mission at Vox .
But our distinctive brand of explanatory journalism takes resources .
Even when the economy and the news advertising market recovers , your support will be a critical part of sustaining our resource-intensive work .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ you .
If you haven ’ t , please consider helping everyone understand this presidential election : Contribute today from as little as $ 3 .

A study conducted by four Stanford University economic researchers determined that 18 Trump campaign rallies, the bulk of which took place over the past summer, “ultimately resulted in more than 30,000 incremental confirmed cases of COVID-19” and “likely led to more than 700 deaths.”
The study examined 18 counties that hosted Trump rallies in locations such as Tulsa, Oklahoma; Phoenix, Arizona; and Winston-Salem, North Carolina, held between June 20 and September 22. It then compared the rate of post-rally Covid-19 infections in the host counties to that of comparable counties that did not host a rally. Attendance at individual rallies varied, but Trump often draws thousands of supporters to these events.
“For the vast majority of county matching procedures we employ,” the authors wrote, “our estimate of the average treatment effect across the eighteen rallies implies that they increased subsequent confirmed cases of COVID-19 by more than 250 per 100,000 residents.” The researchers — B. Douglas Bernheim, an economics professor at Stanford, and Stanford grad students Nina Buchmann, Zach Freitas-Groff, and Sebastián Otero — extrapolated that figure to the entire sample, concluding that the rallies led to thousands of new infections and, likely, hundreds of deaths.
As the authors acknowledge, trying to identify exactly how many infections resulted from a Trump rally (or any other potential superspreader event) is not easy. Factors such as whether the rally is held indoor or outdoor, whether a large number of infected people attended, whether attendees wore masks, and “the distribution of infected individuals among rally attendees” can all lead to vastly different rates of infection.
Likewise, while the authors estimate Trump’s summer rallies led to more than 700 deaths, they note those deaths were “not necessarily among attendees.” For example, a rally-goer may become infected with a mild case, but that same rally-goer might give the virus to his wife, who gives it to a coworker, who gives it to their sister, who dies of Covid-19.
Nevertheless, the average discrepancies between the number of infections in counties hosting Trump rallies and the infection rates in other, similar counties suggest that at least some of Trump’s campaign events were superspreader events, potentially responsible for hundreds of lost lives.
Earlier this month, Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, warned that Trump was “asking for trouble” by hosting mass political rallies as the number of Covid-19 infections surge. But Fauci’s warning does not appear to have deterred the president, who reportedly plans to host 14 rallies in the final three days of the 2020 campaign.
ntribute today from as little as $3.


vox--2020-10-31--As Trump downplays Covid-19, the US sets a world record for cases

On Friday , October 30 , the US reported 98,859 new Covid-19 cases in a single day — more than any other country at any point in the pandemic .
The same day , at a rally at Waterford Township , Michigan , President Donald Trump told supporters , “ You live with [ the coronavirus ] , and you know what to do — we understand it now , you ’ ve got to understand it .
But we ’ re making that beautiful turn , and the vaccines are coming.
” Trump has long downplayed the seriousness of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ contributed to the country ’ s struggle to lower the level of infections .
But his denial is particularly distressing in light of Friday ’ s case total setting the world record for the most cases in a single day , surpassing India ’ s one-day record of 97,894 cases in September .
Friday marks the fifth time in the past eight days that the US has reported more new cases than its previous high of 75,687 cases , which dates back to July .
Trump has incorrectly argued that the US is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ testing more .
As Vox ’ s Aaron Rupar has explained , if this were true , case totals and testing totals would be rising at a similar rate — in reality , cases have risen at a rate nearly four times that of testing in recent weeks .
With just days until the 2020 presidential election , the US ticked past 9 million total cases on Thursday , and the rolling seven-day case average in the US has risen past its previous high .
At 79,833 cases per day , it ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ be to come as the US heads into winter .
In Wisconsin , where Trump rallied Friday , Gov .
Tony Evers warned : “ There is no way to sugarcoat it , we are facing an urgent crisis and there is an imminent risk to you and your family.
” As of earlier this week , 84 percent of hospital beds in the state were full , according to CNN , with hospitalizations still rising .
In total , almost 230,000 people have died in the US since the pandemic began , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ rising .
“ We ’ re about to go into a dark winter ” As bad as the current US outbreak looks , things are almost certain to get worse .
Epidemiologists have long warned that the winter months , when social distancing is sure to become harder as more people stay inside , have the potential to be among the worst of the pandemic so far .
In a Friday interview , Dr. Anthony Fauci , the nation ’ s leading infectious disease expert , warned that current case numbers are “ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in a precarious position over the next several weeks to months , ” Fauci told SiriusXM .
As Vox reporters Umair Irfan , Julia Belluz , and Brian Resnick explained this week , hospitalizations and deaths — which are already rising — are lagging indicators .
This means that although they currently appear less than catastrophic , case totals suggest that in a few weeks ’ time , both hospitalization and death numbers will likely see a sharp increase .
If the virus continues on its current trajectory , hospitals could once again @ @ @ @ @ @ @ patients , and “ the gains doctors have made treating critically ill patients could rapidly be undone.
” On Thursday , Utah Gov .
Gary Herbert echoed this warning in a sobering series of tweets .
“ Our hospitals can not keep up with Utah ’ s infection rate , ” he wrote .
“ You deserve to understand the dire situation we face.
” Unlike Herbert , however , Trump has consistently spread misinformation on the campaign trail about what ’ s to come .
In addition to consistently — and falsely @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the corner ” in the pandemic , Trump has also ignored the fact that the number of Covid-19 cases and deaths are likely undercounted , spreading a conspiracy theory Friday that doctors are deliberately overcounting deaths in order to profit off of the virus .
Both Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden and the American Medical Association condemned Trump ’ s remarks on Friday .
“ Doctors and nurses go to work every day to save lives , ” Biden said .
“ They do their jobs .
Donald Trump should stop attacking them @ @ @ @ @ @ @ contrast to Trump , Biden has made a point of emphasizing public health guidelines on the campaign trail , including the use of masks and social distancing .
He ’ s also cautioned against the president ’ s overly ambitious promises about a vaccine .
“ We ’ re about to go into a dark winter , ” Biden told voters at the final presidential debate earlier this month .
“ And there ’ s no prospect that a vaccine is going to be available for the majority of the American people before @ @ @ @ @ @ @ you help keep Vox free for all ?
The United States is in the middle of one of the most consequential presidential elections of our lifetimes .
It ’ s essential that all Americans are able to access clear , concise information on what the outcome of the election could mean for their lives , and the lives of their families and communities .
That is our mission at Vox .
But our distinctive brand of explanatory journalism takes resources .
Even when the economy and the news advertising market recovers , your @ @ @ @ @ @ @ sustaining our resource-intensive work .
If you have already contributed , thank you .
If you haven ’ t , please consider helping everyone understand this presidential election : Contribute today from as little as $ 3 .

On Friday, October 30, the US reported 98,859 new Covid-19 cases in a single day — more than any other country at any point in the pandemic.
The same day, at a rally at Waterford Township, Michigan, President Donald Trump told supporters, “You live with [the coronavirus], and you know what to do — we understand it now, you’ve got to understand it. But we’re making that beautiful turn, and the vaccines are coming.”
Trump has long downplayed the seriousness of the coronavirus, a habit that has contributed to the country’s struggle to lower the level of infections. But his denial is particularly distressing in light of Friday’s case total setting the world record for the most cases in a single day, surpassing India’s one-day record of 97,894 cases in September. Friday marks the fifth time in the past eight days that the US has reported more new cases than its previous high of 75,687 cases, which dates back to July.
Trump thinks the fact that only 3 percent of ER visits are for Covid is evidence of his "relentless efforts" pic.twitter.com/8dzh0bULk6 — Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) October 30, 2020
Trump has incorrectly argued that the US is seeing more cases only because it is testing more. As Vox’s Aaron Rupar has explained, if this were true, case totals and testing totals would be rising at a similar rate — in reality, cases have risen at a rate nearly four times that of testing in recent weeks.
With just days until the 2020 presidential election, the US ticked past 9 million total cases on Thursday, and the rolling seven-day case average in the US has risen past its previous high. At 79,833 cases per day, it’s a preview of what may still be to come as the US heads into winter.
In Wisconsin, where Trump rallied Friday, Gov. Tony Evers warned: “There is no way to sugarcoat it, we are facing an urgent crisis and there is an imminent risk to you and your family.” As of earlier this week, 84 percent of hospital beds in the state were full, according to CNN, with hospitalizations still rising.
In total, almost 230,000 people have died in the US since the pandemic began, and deaths — like cases — are rising.
“We’re about to go into a dark winter”
As bad as the current US outbreak looks, things are almost certain to get worse.
Epidemiologists have long warned that the winter months, when social distancing is sure to become harder as more people stay inside, have the potential to be among the worst of the pandemic so far. In a Friday interview, Dr. Anthony Fauci, the nation’s leading infectious disease expert, warned that current case numbers are “quite unacceptable.”
“We’re in a precarious position over the next several weeks to months,” Fauci told SiriusXM.
As Vox reporters Umair Irfan, Julia Belluz, and Brian Resnick explained this week, hospitalizations and deaths — which are already rising — are lagging indicators. This means that although they currently appear less than catastrophic, case totals suggest that in a few weeks’ time, both hospitalization and death numbers will likely see a sharp increase. If the virus continues on its current trajectory, hospitals could once again be overwhelmed with a surge in Covid-19 patients, and “the gains doctors have made treating critically ill patients could rapidly be undone.”
On Thursday, Utah Gov. Gary Herbert echoed this warning in a sobering series of tweets. “Our hospitals cannot keep up with Utah’s infection rate,” he wrote. “You deserve to understand the dire situation we face.”
Our hospitals cannot keep up with Utah’s infection rate. You deserve to understand the dire situation we face. — Gov. Gary Herbert (@GovHerbert) October 29, 2020
Unlike Herbert, however, Trump has consistently spread misinformation on the campaign trail about what’s to come.
In addition to consistently — and falsely — insisting the US is “rounding the corner” in the pandemic, Trump has also ignored the fact that the number of Covid-19 cases and deaths are likely undercounted, spreading a conspiracy theory Friday that doctors are deliberately overcounting deaths in order to profit off of the virus.
"Our doctors get more money if someone dies from Covid. You know that, right? I mean, our doctors are very smart people." -- Trump pushes a baseless conspiracy that greedy American health care workers are overcounting coronavirus deaths pic.twitter.com/fsajGTvvN3 — Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) October 30, 2020
Both Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden and the American Medical Association condemned Trump’s remarks on Friday.
“Doctors and nurses go to work every day to save lives,” Biden said. “They do their jobs. Donald Trump should stop attacking them and do his job.”
In stark contrast to Trump, Biden has made a point of emphasizing public health guidelines on the campaign trail, including the use of masks and social distancing. He’s also cautioned against the president’s overly ambitious promises about a vaccine.
“We’re about to go into a dark winter,” Biden told voters at the final presidential debate earlier this month. “And there’s no prospect that a vaccine is going to be available for the majority of the American people before the middle of next year.”
ntribute today from as little as $3.


vox--2020-10-31--Sean Connery, legendary actor known for his role as James Bond, dies at 90

Sean Connery , best known as the first actor to play James Bond on the big screen , has died at the age of 90 .
He “ died peacefully in his sleep surrounded by family , ” publicist Nancy Seltzer said in a statement Saturday .
His son , Jason Connery , confirmed his father had been “ unwell for some time , ” the BBC reported .
Connery leaves behind a legacy as an icon in the film industry .
His most famous role as James Bond in films like You Only Live Twice and Dr. No helped @ @ @ @ @ @ @ today , but he ’ s also beloved for roles in films such as The Hunt for Red October , The Name of the Rose , and Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade .
Connery was also a proud advocate for his home country of Scotland and a strong supporter of the Scottish National Party , known for pushing for Scottish independence from the United Kingdom .
Born in Edinburgh , Scotland , Connery was the son of a factory worker and a cleaning woman .
After a series of odd jobs , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ competitive bodybuilder , Connery began auditioning as a stage actor at theaters in Edinburgh and London .
He continued working as a stage , television , and film actor when , at the age of 32 , he starred in his breakthrough role as James Bond in Dr. No , the first film adaptation of Ian Fleming ’ s novels .
Connery went on to star in six more Bond films as well as a slew of other movies , earning the 1988 Academy Award for Best Supporting Actor for the film The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Connery will be remembered worldwide as a legendary actor , a sex symbol , a proud Scot , and the first ( and quite possibly the best ) Bond .
“ Sean was born into a working class Edinburgh family and through talent & sheer hard work , became an international film icon and one of the world ’ s most accomplished actors , ” Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon tweeted Saturday .
“ Our nation today mourns one of her best loved sons.
” He is survived by his wife , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , Jason , also an actor .
Help keep Vox free for all Millions turn to Vox each month to understand what ’ s happening in the news , from the coronavirus crisis to a racial reckoning to what is , quite possibly , the most consequential presidential election of our lifetimes .
Our mission has never been more vital than it is in this moment : to empower you through understanding .
But our distinctive brand of explanatory journalism takes resources .
Even when the economy and the news advertising market recovers @ @ @ @ @ @ @ part of sustaining our resource-intensive work .
If you have already contributed , thank you .
If you haven ’ t , please consider helping everyone make sense of an increasingly chaotic world : Contribute today from as little as $ 3 .

Sean Connery, best known as the first actor to play James Bond on the big screen, has died at the age of 90. He “died peacefully in his sleep surrounded by family,” publicist Nancy Seltzer said in a statement Saturday.
His son, Jason Connery, confirmed his father had been “unwell for some time,” the BBC reported.
Connery leaves behind a legacy as an icon in the film industry. His most famous role as James Bond in films like You Only Live Twice and Dr. No helped launch the 007 film franchise that continues today, but he’s also beloved for roles in films such as The Hunt for Red October, The Name of the Rose, and Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade.
Connery was also a proud advocate for his home country of Scotland and a strong supporter of the Scottish National Party, known for pushing for Scottish independence from the United Kingdom.
Born in Edinburgh, Scotland, Connery was the son of a factory worker and a cleaning woman. After a series of odd jobs, including working as a milkman and a competitive bodybuilder, Connery began auditioning as a stage actor at theaters in Edinburgh and London.
He continued working as a stage, television, and film actor when, at the age of 32, he starred in his breakthrough role as James Bond in Dr. No, the first film adaptation of Ian Fleming’s novels. Connery went on to star in six more Bond films as well as a slew of other movies, earning the 1988 Academy Award for Best Supporting Actor for the film The Untouchables. He was knighted in 2000.
Connery will be remembered worldwide as a legendary actor, a sex symbol, a proud Scot, and the first (and quite possibly the best) Bond.
“Sean was born into a working class Edinburgh family and through talent & sheer hard work, became an international film icon and one of the world’s most accomplished actors,” Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon tweeted Saturday. “Our nation today mourns one of her best loved sons.”
He is survived by his wife, painter Micheline Roquebrune, and his son, Jason, also an actor.
ntribute today from as little as $3.


vox--2020-11-01--The latest batch of swing state polls shows a healthy Biden lead

Saturday and early Sunday saw the release of a final batch of high-quality polling that generally confirms what polling has said along along : Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden is in the lead .
Evidence for that proposition comes from a tetralogy of New York Times polls conducted in conjunction with Siena College , which were released Sunday morning .
They show Biden ahead in Arizona , Pennsylvania , Florida , and Wisconsin — easily enough states to give him the win .
But even a Des Moines Register poll conducted by the legendary Ann Seltzer that was released on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a 7 percentage point lead in Iowa , is actually not very good news for President Donald Trump .
The only genuinely solid result for Trump was an ABC News poll showing him up two in Florida .
But the same pollsters simultaneously found him down by seven in Pennsylvania .
Overall the message of the polls is crystal clear — Trump is losing the election , including in the key swing states and the margin is not small .
That doesn ’ t mean he won ’ t win , as large @ @ @ @ @ @ @ you ’ d be well-advised to bet fairly heavily against it .
Trump is losing in the latest polls To sum it all up , here are the latest poll results : Given that there is essentially no time left in the election , these polls are very bad news for Donald Trump .
He has been lagging badly in national head-to-head polling the whole race , but the contest for Pennsylvania has generally been closer and there are good odds that Pennsylvania will be the decisive state in the electoral college .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ state closer than national polling averages , but it ’ s still just not that close .
Polling errors of 6-7 percentage points in magnitude do happen , but it would be unusual .
Or to put it another way , if the polls in Pennsylvania are off this year as much as they were in 2016 then Trump would still lose .
A 6 percentage point lead in Arizona gives Biden a backup path to victory if he does somehow fall short in Pennsylvania .
And while the Biden campaign would be @ @ @ @ @ @ @ points after having looked close there in many other polls , this result is simply not as good as it superficially seems for Trump .
He won the state by 9 percentage points two years ago , and if he loses 2 percentage points of support across the northern battlegrounds he will lose the election .
Iowa , with its six electoral college votes , isn ’ t a big prize for either candidate .
But where the Iowa poll does matter is in the race for the Senate , where Theresa Greenfield @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are looking worse than they did a month ago in a race that could potentially decide whether Democrats or Republicans control the chamber .
Finally there is the ABC/Post Florida poll , which has genuinely good news for Trump .
By their numbers , he is not only winning the state , he ’ s winning it by a slightly larger margin than he did in 2016 .
That ’ s the kind of result Trump needs to win the election nationally , but of course , the Post also has him losing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Florida alone won ’ t get it done for Trump .
Only a historic error will deliver Trump the win Hillary Clinton was leading in the polls in 2016 and then lost the election , dealing a blow to the public ’ s confidence in pollsters and forecasting .
But much of the flawed overconfidence in Clinton coming from sites projecting her odds of winning as 90 percent or more was based on bad modeling not on bad polling .
She led in all the swing states , but led by small margins @ @ @ @ @ @ @ time ( indeed , they happened in 2012 it ’ s just that nobody remembers that Obama won by a bit more than expected ) , and it ’ s only moderately unlikely that a candidate down by 2 or 3 percentage points will lose .
Trump , however , is down by 6 or 7 percentage points in Pennsylvania , and separately is down by smaller amounts in North Carolina and Arizona — which have distinct regional and demographic mixes meaning that poll errors would be only partially correlated with ones in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ say that he can ’ t win the election , but if he does it will involve a much larger polling error than we saw last time around and raise some fundamentally questions about whether the major public pollsters can do reliable surveys at all .

This weekend saw the release of a final batch of high-quality polling that generally confirms what polling has said all along: Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden is in the lead.
Evidence for that proposition comes from a tetralogy of New York Times polls conducted in conjunction with Siena College, which were released Sunday morning. They show Biden ahead in Arizona, Pennsylvania, Florida, and Wisconsin — easily enough states to give him the win. But even a Des Moines Register poll conducted by the legendary Ann Selzer that was released on Saturday evening, which showed Trump with a 7 percentage point lead in Iowa, is actually not very good news for President Donald Trump.
The only genuinely solid result for Trump was an ABC News/Washington Post poll showing him up 2 points in Florida. But the same pollsters simultaneously found him down by 7 points in Pennsylvania.
Overall, the message of the polls is crystal clear — Trump is losing the election, including in the key swing states, and the margin is not small. That doesn’t mean he won’t win, as large polling errors do sometimes occur, but you’d be well-advised to bet fairly heavily against it.
Trump is losing in the latest polls
To sum it all up, here are the latest poll results:
Arizona: Biden 49, Trump 43 (NYT/Siena)
Biden 49, Trump 43 (NYT/Siena) Florida: Biden 47, Trump 44 (NYT/Siena)
Biden 47, Trump 44 (NYT/Siena) Pennsylvania: Biden 49, Trump 43 (NYT/Siena)
Biden 49, Trump 43 (NYT/Siena) Wisconsin: Biden 52, Trump 41 (NYT/Siena)
Biden 52, Trump 41 (NYT/Siena) Iowa: Biden 41, Trump 48 (DMR/Selzer)
Biden 41, Trump 48 (DMR/Selzer) Pennsylvania: Biden 51, Trump 44 (Washington Post/ABC)
Biden 51, Trump 44 (Washington Post/ABC) Florida: Biden 48, Trump 50 (Washington Post/ABC)
Given that there is essentially no time left in the election, these polls are very bad news for Donald Trump. He has been lagging badly in national head-to-head polling the whole race, but the contest for Pennsylvania has generally been closer — FiveThirtyEight’s average of recent polls in Pennsylvania has Biden ahead by 5 points — and there are good odds that Pennsylvania will be the decisive state in the Electoral College.
These two Pennsylvania polls do show the state slightly closer than national polling averages, which Biden leads by more than 8 points, but it’s still just not that close. Polling errors of 6 to 7 percentage points in magnitude do happen, but it would be unusual. Or to put it another way, even if the polls in Pennsylvania are off this year as much as they were in 2016, then Trump would still lose.
A 6 percentage point lead in Arizona, according to the Times/Siena poll, gives Biden a backup path to victory if he does somehow fall short in Pennsylvania. An average of recent polls in Arizona shows Biden with a smaller, 3-point lead there.
And while the Biden campaign would be disappointed to lose Iowa by 7 percentage points after having looked close there in many other polls, this result is simply not as good as it superficially seems for Trump. He won the state by 9 percentage points two years ago, and if he loses 2 percentage points of support across the Northern battlegrounds he will lose the election. Iowa, with its six Electoral College votes, isn’t a big prize for either candidate. But where the Iowa poll does matter is in the race for the Senate, where Theresa Greenfield’s efforts to unseat Joni Ernst are looking worse than they did a month ago in a race that could potentially decide whether Democrats or Republicans control the chamber.
Finally there is the ABC/Post Florida poll, which has genuinely good news for Trump. By their numbers, he is not only winning the state, he’s winning it by a slightly larger margin than he did in 2016. That’s the kind of result Trump needs to win the election nationally, but of course, that poll also has him losing Pennsylvania rather badly — in which case Florida alone won’t get it done for Trump. And Florida polling averages from FiveThirtyEight show Biden with a narrow 2-point lead.
Only a historic error will deliver Trump the win
Hillary Clinton was leading in the polls in 2016 and then lost the election, dealing a blow to the public’s confidence in pollsters and forecasting.
But much of the flawed overconfidence in Clinton coming from sites projecting her odds of winning as 90 percent or more was based on bad modeling, not on bad polling. She led in all the swing states, but led by small margins. Small polling errors happen all the time (indeed, they happened in 2012; it’s just that nobody remembers that Obama won by a bit more than expected), and it’s only moderately unlikely that a candidate down by 2 or 3 percentage points will lose.
Trump, however, is down by 6 or 7 percentage points in Pennsylvania, and separately is down by smaller amounts in North Carolina and Arizona — which have distinct regional and demographic mixes meaning that poll errors in those states would be only partially correlated with ones in Pennsylvania. None of this is to say that he can’t win the election, but if he does it will involve a much larger polling error than we saw last time around, and raise some fundamental questions about whether the major public pollsters can do reliable surveys at all.