vox--2020-09-14--There are no good choices

There are no good choices

Where I live , the sky is choking .
Wednesday was the worst .
The day was a dark , burnt haze ; red as the end of the world .
My dogs paced and barked .
The animal in me panicked , too .
If the sky couldn ’ t breathe in the light , how were we to breathe in the air ?
My son is too young to wear a mask , too energetic to trap inside .
How could I protect him ?
We wanted to flee , all of us .
But where were we @ @ @ @ @ @ @ shelter indoors , taking refuge with friends or family , because of the coronavirus .
We couldn ’ t slip into nature because of the fire .
There were no good choices .
This is the era of no good choices .
Take schooling , for example .
Keeping children home robs them of education and socialization .
It scars their futures , steals their joys .
It makes it impossible for their parents to work , or even to rest .
But sending them to school endangers their health , and that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The argument is so heated because the choices are all bad , at least by the standards of the lives we used to lead .
We battle like there is a good answer , like we will discover one side is right and the other is wrong .
But we won ’ t .
There is no answer .
Whatever we pick , it will be horrible .
Everything is like that right now .
Do you visit your parents , let them see their grandchild ?
How do you weigh the risk @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ?
If they ’ re sick , does that make visiting them more dangerous , or more necessary ?
How about your friends ?
What is the cost to your child of growing up without community , without other hands to take care of them , without other adults they ’ re allowed to hug , to play with ?
Do we reopen restaurants ?
If they do reopen , do we go to them ?
The risks are terrible , but so is the thought of losing an entire industry , of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ those futures shatter .
As the Senate dithers , these decisions are being left to us , and it is tearing us apart .
In America , our ideological conflicts are often understood as the tension between individual freedoms and collective actions .
The failure of our pandemic response policy exposes the falseness of that frame .
In the absence of effective state action , we , as individuals , find ourselves in prisons of risk , our every movement stalked by disease .
We are anything but free , our only liberty @ @ @ @ @ @ @ awful options .
And faced with terrible choices , we are turning on each other , polarizing against one another .
YouTube conspiracies and social media shaming are becoming our salves , the way we wrest a modicum of individual control over a crisis that has overwhelmed us as a collective .
“ The burden of decision making and risk in this pandemic has been fully transitioned from the top-down to the individual , ” says Dr. Julia Marcus , a Harvard epidemiologist .
“ It started with [ responsibility ] being transitioned @ @ @ @ @ @ @ it to the local school districts — If we ’ re talking about schools for the moment — and then down to the individual .
You can see it in the way that people talk about personal responsibility , and the way that we see so much shaming about individual-level behavior.
” ( You can hear my whole conversation with Marcus on this podcast . )
But in shifting so much responsibility to individuals , our government has revealed the limits of individualism .
The risk calculation that rules , and ruins , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ equation .
Here ’ s a rough version of it : The danger of an act = ( the transmission risk of the activity ) X ( the local prevalence of Covid-19 ) / ( by your area ’ s ability to control a new outbreak ) .
Individuals can control only a small portion of that equation .
People can choose safer activities over riskier ones — though the language of choice too often obscures the reality that many have no economic choice save to work jobs that put them , and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the local prevalence of Covid-19 and the capacity of authorities to track and squelch outbreaks are collective functions .
They rely on competent testing infrastructures , fast contact tracing , universal health insurance , thoughtful reopening policies , strong public health communication , reliable economic support for the displaced , and social trust .
Managed well , they lower the background risk , making more activities safe enough to consider , making the decisions individuals face easier .
But in America , that public infrastructure has failed most people , in most places @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of risk that individuals have been left to navigate virtually alone .
In the absence of an effective public response , we turn our frustrations on each other , as we fail to navigate the impossible choices we ’ re left with .
We shame each other for going to beaches , to protests , to bars , to schools .
We ’ re angry at college kids attending parties and bikers attending rallies and runners who don ’ t don their masks as they speed by , each exhalation a threat to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The way that we get control of fear , which is driven by this sense of uncertainty , is we put the locus of control on individuals , because then we can be angry at people , ” says Marcus .
Like everyone else , I have my views on which activities should be sanctioned and which should be shunned , but I also have my lapses , my compromises , my trade-offs .
We all do .
And as the pandemic wears on , those differences sharpen , cutting into even loving @ @ @ @ @ @ @ apart , and friendships and relationships fraying over differing views of risk and reward .
Politics , too , is tipping into a darker , more dangerous place , with President Trump preemptively undermining the election , with millions out of work and furious at those they see as causing or dismissing their pain .
There are dozens of ways the government could make it easier for individuals to make safe choices , ranging from effective policies to control the spread of the virus to a renewed economic support package that would allow @ @ @ @ @ @ @ their livelihoods .
This is how other countries are responding to the crisis , and it is working .
But Trump has refused to put forward — much less follow — a plan to suppress the virus , and congressional Republicans have insisted on withdrawing support from the labor market , in a bid to force workers to return to jobs .
In that way , the impossible choices being forced on Americans are a policy decision being made by their elected leaders .
We have been set up to fail The closest @ @ @ @ @ @ @ policy to suppress the virus was articulated by Vice President Mike Pence at the Republican National Convention .
“ America is a nation of miracles , ” he said .
“ And I ’ m proud to report that we are on track to have the world ’ s first safe , effective coronavirus vaccine by the end of this year.
” But even if that ’ s true — and that remains a big “ if ” — it does not mean the crisis will end , or that our former lives @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ Even if the vaccine were to come this fall , it would take us over a year to get the number of doses needed to vaccinate the population , ” says Michael Osterholm , director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota .
“ A year from now we ’ ll still be dealing with this situation .
So I ’ m not here thinking about how to get through the next election .
I ’ m thinking about how to get through the next @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in November , and Democrats also take the Senate .
What options will be open to them ?
Would the nation follow a lockdown , if one were needed ?
Would disappointed Trump voters heed a renewed push on masking , or would that simply feed the the arcane phantasmagoria of QAnon ?
Are we prepared , socially and psychically , for a vaccine that fails , or even just disappoints ?
Will enough of us even trust a vaccine given the Trump administration ’ s relentless promotion of untested cures ?
We @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Admitting that may , at some level , help us be more compassionate toward each other .
We have been left without good choices , and so we are upset at the bad decisions our neighbors , friends , and families are making , even as they are angry at the trade-offs we choose .
We are right to be upset .
Our reality is enraging and terrifying .
But more of our ire should be directed at the government that has left us in these straits .
Governmental failure has paved the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ US government had succeeded as Canada or Germany ’ s governments succeeded , it would be easier to trust each other because we would pose less danger to each other .
If we could depend more on the state , we could make more reasonable requests of ourselves .
In the wreckage of state failure , though , it is nearly impossible for us to thrive .
This is a lesson the coronavirus is , or should be , teaching us , but it applies to far more than this moment .
I @ @ @ @ @ @ @ have burnt my region ; fires worsened , year after year , by unchecked climate change .
There , too , our failures as a polity have left us adrift as individuals — free to flee our homes , but not free to breathe air that doesn ’ t leave us choking .
It is a thin form of liberty , but it is all we will have left if we can not govern collectively .
We all want to be free to make our own choices .
But we need government that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ choices to make .
Help keep Vox free for all Millions turn to Vox each month to understand what ’ s happening in the news , from the coronavirus crisis to a racial reckoning to what is , quite possibly , the most consequential presidential election of our lifetimes .
Our mission has never been more vital than it is in this moment : to empower you through understanding .
But our distinctive brand of explanatory journalism takes resources .
Even when the economy and the news advertising market recovers , your support @ @ @ @ @ @ @ our resource-intensive work .
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Where I live, the sky is choking. Wednesday was the worst. The day was a dark, burnt haze; red as the end of the world. My dogs paced and barked. The animal in me panicked, too. If the sky couldn’t breathe in the light, how were we to breathe in the air? My son is too young to wear a mask, too energetic to trap inside. How could I protect him? We wanted to flee, all of us. But where were we to go? We couldn’t shelter indoors, taking refuge with friends or family, because of the coronavirus. We couldn’t slip into nature because of the fire. There were no good choices.
This is the era of no good choices. Take schooling, for example. Keeping children home robs them of education and socialization. It scars their futures, steals their joys. It makes it impossible for their parents to work, or even to rest. But sending them to school endangers their health, and that of their teachers and their families. The argument is so heated because the choices are all bad, at least by the standards of the lives we used to lead. We battle like there is a good answer, like we will discover one side is right and the other is wrong. But we won’t. There is no answer. Whatever we pick, it will be horrible.
Everything is like that right now. Do you visit your parents, let them see their grandchild? How do you weigh the risk of contagion against the risk of isolation? If they’re sick, does that make visiting them more dangerous, or more necessary? How about your friends? What is the cost to your child of growing up without community, without other hands to take care of them, without other adults they’re allowed to hug, to play with? Do we reopen restaurants? If they do reopen, do we go to them? The risks are terrible, but so is the thought of losing an entire industry, of seeing all those dreams die, all those futures shatter. As the Senate dithers, these decisions are being left to us, and it is tearing us apart.
In America, our ideological conflicts are often understood as the tension between individual freedoms and collective actions. The failure of our pandemic response policy exposes the falseness of that frame. In the absence of effective state action, we, as individuals, find ourselves in prisons of risk, our every movement stalked by disease. We are anything but free; our only liberty is to choose among a menu of awful options. And faced with terrible choices, we are turning on each other, polarizing against one another. YouTube conspiracies and social media shaming are becoming our salves, the way we wrest a modicum of individual control over a crisis that has overwhelmed us as a collective.
“The burden of decision-making and risk in this pandemic has been fully transitioned from the top down to the individual,” says Dr. Julia Marcus, a Harvard epidemiologist. “It started with [responsibility] being transitioned to the states, which then transitioned it to the local school districts — If we’re talking about schools for the moment — and then down to the individual. You can see it in the way that people talk about personal responsibility, and the way that we see so much shaming about individual-level behavior.” (You can hear my whole conversation with Marcus on this podcast.)
But in shifting so much responsibility to individuals, our government has revealed the limits of individualism.
The risk calculation that rules, and ruins, lives
Think of coronavirus risk like an equation. Here’s a rough version of it: The danger of an act = (the transmission risk of the activity) x (the local prevalence of Covid-19) / (by your area’s ability to control a new outbreak).
Individuals can control only a small portion of that equation. People can choose safer activities over riskier ones — though the language of choice too often obscures the reality that many have no economic choice save to work jobs that put them, and their families, in danger. But the local prevalence of Covid-19 and the capacity of authorities to track and squelch outbreaks are collective functions. They rely on competent testing infrastructures, fast contact tracing, universal health insurance, thoughtful reopening policies, strong public health communication, reliable economic support for the displaced, and social trust. Managed well, they lower the background risk, making more activities safe enough to consider, making the decisions individuals face easier. But in America, that public infrastructure has failed most people, in most places. The result is a maddening world of risk that individuals have been left to navigate virtually alone.
In the absence of an effective public response, we turn our frustrations on each other, as we fail to navigate the impossible choices we’re left with. We shame each other for going to beaches, to protests, to bars, to schools. We’re angry at college kids attending parties and bikers attending rallies and runners who don’t don their masks as they speed by, each exhalation a threat to ourselves and those we love.
“The way that we get control of fear, which is driven by this sense of uncertainty, is we put the locus of control on individuals, because then we can be angry at people,” says Marcus.
Like everyone else, I have my views on which activities should be sanctioned and which should be shunned, but I also have my lapses, my compromises, my trade-offs. We all do. And as the pandemic wears on, those differences sharpen, cutting into even loving bonds. I know families being torn apart, and friendships and relationships fraying over differing views of risk and reward. Politics, too, is tipping into a darker, more dangerous place, with President Trump preemptively undermining the election, with millions out of work and furious at those they see as causing or dismissing their pain.
There are dozens of ways the government could make it easier for individuals to make safe choices, ranging from effective policies to control the spread of the virus to a renewed economic support package that would allow people to protect their health without sacrificing their livelihoods. This is how other countries are responding to the crisis, and it is working. But Trump has refused to put forward — much less follow — a plan to suppress the virus, and congressional Republicans have insisted on withdrawing support from the labor market, in a bid to force workers to return to jobs. In that way, the impossible choices being forced on Americans are a policy decision being made by their elected leaders.
We have been set up to fail
The closest thing the GOP has to an actual policy to suppress the virus was articulated by Vice President Mike Pence at the Republican National Convention. “America is a nation of miracles,” he said. “And I’m proud to report that we are on track to have the world’s first safe, effective coronavirus vaccine by the end of this year.” But even if that’s true — and that remains a big “if” — it does not mean the crisis will end, or that our former lives will resume, in the fall.
“Even if the vaccine were to come this fall, it would take us over a year to get the number of doses needed to vaccinate the population,” says Michael Osterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota. “A year from now we’ll still be dealing with this situation. So I’m not here thinking about how to get through the next election. I’m thinking about how to get through the next few years.”
Imagine Joe Biden wins in November, and Democrats also take the Senate. What options will be open to them? Would the nation follow a lockdown, if one were needed? Would disappointed Trump voters heed a renewed push on masking, or would that simply feed the arcane phantasmagoria of QAnon? Are we prepared, socially and psychically, for a vaccine that fails, or even just disappoints? Will enough of us even trust a vaccine given the Trump administration’s relentless promotion of untested cures?
We have been set up to fail. Admitting that may, at some level, help us be more compassionate toward each other. We have been left without good choices, and so we are upset at the bad decisions our neighbors, friends, and families are making, even as they are angry at the trade-offs we choose. We are right to be upset. Our reality is enraging and terrifying. But more of our ire should be directed at the government that has left us in these straits.
Governmental failure has paved the way for social fracture. If the US government had succeeded as Canada or Germany’s governments succeeded, it would be easier to trust each other because we would pose less danger to each other. If we could depend more on the state, we could make more reasonable requests of ourselves. In the wreckage of state failure, though, it is nearly impossible for us to thrive.
This is a lesson the coronavirus is, or should be, teaching us, but it applies to far more than this moment. I began this column with the fires that have burnt my region; fires worsened, year after year, by unchecked climate change. There, too, our failures as a polity have left us adrift as individuals — free to flee our homes, but not free to breathe air that doesn’t leave us choking. It is a thin form of liberty, but it is all we will have left if we cannot govern collectively. We all want to be free to make our own choices. But we need government that works well enough so we have good choices to make.


vox--2020-09-14--Why Covid-19 case numbers are falling in the US

The United States has suffered one of the worst Covid-19 epidemics in the world .
But here ’ s a bit of good news : Since late July , the number of new coronavirus cases has steadily declined across most of the country .
That ’ s not to say the US is beating the coronavirus .
Reported cases are still higher than they were in the spring ( partly , but likely not entirely , the result of more testing ) .
More than 700 people are still dying from Covid-19 on average every day — more daily new @ @ @ @ @ @ @ country in the world .
There are still large epidemics in some states , especially in parts of the Midwest and South .
Still , the decline in America ’ s Covid-19 cases is real and significant , translating to fewer illnesses and deaths in the next few weeks and , hopefully , months .
So what happened ?
How did the US turn it around ?
The short of it : We can ’ t say for certain ( as with many things related to the coronavirus ) , but it seems @ @ @ @ @ @ @ reaction to the July resurgence of Covid-19 — in which much of the nation stepped up social distancing and masking — have tamed the spread of the virus .
“ I think the decline is due to the combination of [ government ] measures taken , ” Jaime Slaughter-Acey , an epidemiologist at the University of Minnesota , told me .
“ The big outbreaks also led people to be more mindful about integrating social distancing and masks into their everyday norms.
” Some of that is a result of state actions , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ closed down risky indoor spaces such as bars .
Some of it is due to public action ; as the coronavirus surged back , many people had the good sense to reconsider whether they were going out too much and if they needed to be more rigorous about their mask-wearing .
The federal government , however , has not earned much credit .
In my conversations with experts , some suggested the decline in Covid-19 is happening despite federal inaction .
Between President Donald Trump ’ s magical thinking — his administration denied @ @ @ @ @ @ @ it began — and Congress ’ s inability to pass another stimulus bill , it ’ s been largely left to the public , along with local and state governments , to handle the return of the coronavirus .
Now the US faces the risk of yet another wave as fall and winter arrive .
Schools are reopening .
When the weather gets cold , more people head indoors , where there ’ s more risk of transmission .
Families and friends will gather for the holidays .
A flu season is looming @ @ @ @ @ @ @ risk of a surge in Covid-19 .
Some experts also worry that Labor Day celebrations , with families and friends gathered across the country , could mean another wave is already on the way .
In other words : As promising as America ’ s recent decline in Covid-19 is , that doesn ’ t mean it ’ s time to let up .
If the past few months have taught the world anything , it ’ s that continued vigilance against this virus is necessary , at least until we get a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the disease .
“ State and local leaders that have been proactive in their attempt to keep the spread of Covid at bay have been successful , ” Slaughter-Acey said .
“ Others have had to learn by playing with fire , unfortunately .
And still , there are leaders at both the state and national level who refuse to acknowledge the gravity of the pandemic and lead in a way that protects the health of the public.
” America reacted to the resurgence of Covid-19 After the initial wave of Covid-19 largely @ @ @ @ @ @ @ York City area ) , Louisiana , and Michigan in March , the virus began to spread in the South and West in May and June — really taking off in Arizona , Florida , and Texas before eventually hitting just about the rest of the country .
States reacted as hot spots did in the first round : instituting new measures pushing social distancing , masking , testing , and contact tracing .
That ’ s seemingly led to a drop in Covid-19 cases nationwide , driven largely by lower case counts @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
One of state governments ’ go-to moves was to shut down risky indoor spaces , particularly indoor dining and bars .
Arizona , Florida , and Texas all pulled back their reopenings to close down bars , as did California , Colorado , Illinois , Iowa , and Michigan .
Some local and state governments also took stricter measures to close down risky places , including movie theaters .
Based on what we now know about the coronavirus , these indoor spaces are a major source of transmission .
The virus seems @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ventilated areas where people hang out close together for long periods of time ( 15 minutes or more ) .
Especially in restaurants or bars , people may not be wearing masks — you can ’ t eat or drink with one on — further increasing the risk of spread , as some research suggests .
On the flip side , this suggests outdoor spaces are relatively safe during this pandemic .
The outdoors aren ’ t a panacea ; it ’ s still a good idea to keep more than 6 feet @ @ @ @ @ @ @ But they ’ re better .
During the recent surge of Covid-19 , that knowledge — which we simply didn ’ t have early in the pandemic — has given many people an outlet to socialize and get out of their houses without putting themselves at as much risk .
That ’ s made the current circumstances and renewal of some social distancing measures a bit more bearable and sustainable .
“ I think the message that being outdoors is less risky may also play a role ” in the Covid-19 decline , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ State University , told me .
“ When people are gathering , I ’ ve anecdotally seen a lot of social media posts noting they ’ re staying outside as much as possible rather than having indoor events.
” At the same time , more states instituted mask mandates .
According to the AARP , 34 states and Washington , DC , now require wearing a mask in some form or another .
In states that haven ’ t instituted mask mandates , some local governments have done so .
Based on what @ @ @ @ @ @ @ too will help : As a respiratory virus , the coronavirus seems to spread when people talk , shout , laugh , breathe , sigh , or do anything else that might spew virus-containing droplets out of their mouth and nose .
Putting up a physical barrier , whether through a cloth mask , surgical mask , or respirator , to stop those droplets blocks at least some of the virus ’ s spread .
On top of the government actions , the public continued or stepped up their own social distancing and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ surveys , about 73 percent of polled Americans still reported “ always ” or “ very often ” practicing social distancing over the previous 24 hours as of August 30 .
And 92 percent of polled Americans said they wore a mask in the previous seven days when outside their homes , particularly in indoor settings .
Experts cautioned that it ’ s not really possible , as of now , to definitively say that all these efforts helped , given that researchers will need time to decisively prove what ’ s going @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to do the kind of analyses needed to know for sure what all the factors are , ” Jen Kates , director of global health and HIV policy at the Kaiser Family Foundation , told me .
But there ’ s good reason to believe they helped .
A review of the research in The Lancet concluded that “ evidence shows that physical distancing of more than 1 [ meter ] is highly effective and that face masks are associated with protection , even in non-health-care settings.
” Other studies have supported both @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s also a bit of common sense to this .
As Kates told me , “ We saw the opposite earlier in the summer.
” When the public and states eased up on social distancing , especially indoors , and didn ’ t take masking seriously enough , the US saw a surge in Covid-19 cases and deaths .
Doing the opposite , unsurprisingly , has helped reduce new cases and deaths .
The federal government has been largely absent One thing the experts I spoke to have consistently lamented : the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Trump has not done a good job with the coronavirus outbreak .
He ’ s downplayed the risk — deliberately , as he admitted in recorded interviews with journalist Bob Woodward .
He failed to scale up a testing and tracing system like the ones other developed countries , including Germany , New Zealand , and South Korea , used to control their outbreaks , instead punting the issue to the states .
He ’ s given mixed messages on masking , recently mocking Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden for wearing one .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ prematurely , calling on residents to “ LIBERATE ” themselves .
None of this makes any sense , and it defies the advice that experts have consistently given on Covid-19 .
“ There was a failure to realize what an efficiently spreading respiratory virus for which we have no vaccine and no antiviral meant , ” Amesh Adalja , a senior scholar at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security , recently told me .
“ From the very beginning , that minimization … set a tone that reverberated from the highest levels @ @ @ @ @ @ @ believes about the virus.
” Trump ’ s failures were felt during the recent resurgence in coronavirus cases .
Although experts had called on the federal government to dramatically scale up nationwide testing capacity in the spring and summer , the Trump administration by and large refused , claiming the federal government was merely a “ supplier of last resort.
” This left local and state governments , with far fewer resources than the federal government , to scale up testing and tracing on their own .
The result : As coronavirus cases @ @ @ @ @ @ @ July and August , there were delays as long as weeks in getting test results back .
In many respects , this made the tests useless .
Testing is supposed to confirm that someone is sick as early as possible , letting both the infected person and public health officials take steps — from isolation to notifying close contacts of the infected and asking them to quarantine — to prevent further spread of the disease .
But if people can only confirm they ’ re infected weeks after infection , and subsequently days @ @ @ @ @ @ @ transmitting the virus , that ’ s too late .
More broadly , the US has continued to struggle to build up testing .
Overall testing numbers each day in the US continue to hover around 600,000 to 900,000 , increasing little , if at all , since July .
Experts recommend that the percent of tests that come back positive — which gauges whether there ’ s enough testing to meet the scope of an outbreak — should be far below 5 percent or even 3 percent .
The US ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ most states are above the 5 percent cutoff , with some as high as 15 percent or 20 percent .
Trump , however , has suggested he doesn ’ t want more testing .
Arguing that testing makes the US look bad because it reveals more cases , Trump said he told his people , “ Slow the testing down , please.
” Last month , the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention seemed to listen — updating a guidance to say that people without symptoms may not need to get tested even @ @ @ @ @ @ @ have Covid-19 , effectively recommending fewer people at risk get tested .
For Trump , the single goal appears to be anything to make the US look like it ’ s back to normal , as if the pandemic isn ’ t messing up so many people ’ s lives , before the November election .
But the reality is that the virus is here to stay , at least until we have a vaccine or an effective treatment .
The countries that have gotten closer to normal , like Germany and South @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Trump has so far rejected or downplayed .
Meanwhile , other parts of the federal government aren ’ t doing a good job , either .
Though Congress passed a sweeping stimulus package and other measures earlier this year to deal with the initial brunt of Covid-19 , it ’ s failed to renew those measures as many have expired — with the current big proposal caught up in partisan fights over just how large the benefits for people affected by the bad economy should be .
So dealing with the virus , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ been left to the public and to state and local governments , even as they face crippling budget shortfalls as a result of the collapsed economy — with little support from the federal government .
The fall and winter could bring new surges of Covid-19 None of this is to say that the US has , by any means , conquered Covid-19 .
The US continues suffering more Covid-19 deaths each day than any other developed country .
As of September 10 , the death rate in the US was 2.19 per million @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Spain ( 1.42 ) and third-place Israel ( 1.4 ) , and more than triple fourth-place Australia ( 0.66 ) .
That adds to an already grisly statistic : Although the US has not suffered the most Covid-19 deaths of any wealthy nation , it ’ s in the bottom 20 percent for total deaths since the pandemic began , and reports about seven times the coronavirus deaths as the median developed country .
If America had the same death rate as , for example , Canada , 100,000 more Americans would likely @ @ @ @ @ @ @ parts of the Midwest and South — particularly in North Dakota , South Dakota , Iowa , and Alabama — have also shown that the epidemic in the US is by no means over .
If a state gets careless , it ’ s very likely to see a big spike .
South Dakota , for example , allowed a mass gathering at the Sturgis Motorcycle Rally , and that appeared to contribute to the state ’ s recent surge in Covid-19 .
William Hanage , an epidemiologist at Harvard , suggested there @ @ @ @ @ @ @ metropolitan areas are doing compared with more suburban and rural places .
That could lead to spikes in cases in less densely populated places , Hanage told me : “ The Midwest is much more sparsely populated , but when the virus comes to town it can still do damage .
It ’ s just less predictable when it will come to town.
” There are also concerns that recent Labor Day celebrations , in which friends and families gathered , could already have fueled a Covid-19 surge that we ’ ll see @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
But they also may not — if these gatherings were largely outdoors , and people respected social distancing and masking recommendations .
The next big threat could come in the fall and winter .
Schools are now reopening , already leading to outbreaks in universities and K-12 settings .
In colder areas , it will become much harder to gather outside .
Families are bound to gather for the holidays , from Thanksgiving to New Year ’ s Day .
Another flu season is coming , which could strain health care systems @ @ @ @ @ @ @ with a surge in Covid-19 .
And some cities and states have started to relax their measures .
Even New York , which has been very cautious since its huge outbreak in the spring , will soon reopen indoor dining in New York City .
San Francisco , which has been a leader in early action , is also reopening several indoor spaces , including barbershops , churches , and gyms .
“ The virus spreads when a large number of people gather indoors , ” Ashish Jha , dean of the Brown @ @ @ @ @ @ @ told me .
“ That ’ s going to happen more in December than it did in July — and July was a pretty awful month.
” Maybe things won ’ t go so badly .
Maybe the safeguards cities and states have in place will keep the virus at bay , even in indoor areas .
Maybe the population immunity built up from so many people already getting sick will offer some protection , as long as people continue to practice some social distancing and masking .
Maybe the public will keep @ @ @ @ @ @ @ seeing two large Covid-19 waves in the US .
Maybe continued social distancing will suppress the next flu season ( as seemed to happen in the Southern Hemisphere ) .
Or perhaps things will go badly .
That ’ s the gamble with the coronavirus : As long as we don ’ t have a way to vanquish it through a vaccine or other treatment , it presents a constant risk .
So the ongoing decline in coronavirus cases will spare some people from suffering and save lives , but it doesn ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ declare victory just yet .
Help keep Vox free for all Millions turn to Vox each month to understand what ’ s happening in the news , from the coronavirus crisis to a racial reckoning to what is , quite possibly , the most consequential presidential election of our lifetimes .
Our mission has never been more vital than it is in this moment : to empower you through understanding .
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The United States has suffered one of the worst Covid-19 epidemics in the world. But here’s a bit of good news: Since late July, the number of new coronavirus cases has steadily declined across most of the country.
That’s not to say the US is beating the coronavirus. Reported cases are still higher than they were in the spring (partly, but likely not entirely, the result of more testing). More than 700 people are still dying from Covid-19 on average every day — more daily new Covid-19 deaths than in any other developed country in the world. There are still large epidemics in some states, especially in parts of the Midwest and South.
Still, the decline in America’s Covid-19 cases is real and significant, translating to fewer illnesses and deaths in the next few weeks and, hopefully, months.
So what happened? How did the US turn it around?
The short of it: We can’t say for certain (as with many things related to the coronavirus), but it seems as though the US’s overall reaction to the July resurgence of Covid-19 — in which much of the nation stepped up social distancing and masking — has tamed the spread of the virus.
“I think the decline is due to the combination of [government] measures taken,” Jaime Slaughter-Acey, an epidemiologist at the University of Minnesota, told me. “The big outbreaks also led people to be more mindful about integrating social distancing and masks into their everyday norms.”
Some of that is a result of state actions, as some state governments mandated masks and closed down risky indoor spaces such as bars. Some of it is due to public action; as the coronavirus surged back, many people had the good sense to reconsider whether they were going out too much and if they needed to be more rigorous about their mask-wearing.
The federal government, however, has not earned much credit. In my conversations with experts, some suggested the decline in Covid-19 is happening despite federal inaction. Between President Donald Trump’s magical thinking — his administration denied there was a second wave even as it began — and Congress’s inability to pass another stimulus bill, it’s been largely left to the public, along with local and state governments, to handle the return of the coronavirus.
Now the US faces the risk of yet another wave as fall and winter arrive. Schools are reopening. When the weather gets cold, more people head indoors, where there’s more risk of transmission. Families and friends will gather for the holidays. A flu season is looming. All of these factors increase the risk of a surge in Covid-19.
Some experts also worry that Labor Day celebrations, with families and friends gathered across the country, could mean another wave is already on the way.
In other words: As promising as America’s recent decline in Covid-19 is, that doesn’t mean it’s time to let up. If the past few months have taught the world anything, it’s that continued vigilance against this virus is necessary, at least until we get a vaccine or similar treatment to really vanquish the disease.
“State and local leaders that have been proactive in their attempt to keep the spread of Covid at bay have been successful,” Slaughter-Acey said. “Others have had to learn by playing with fire, unfortunately. And still, there are leaders at both the state and national level who refuse to acknowledge the gravity of the pandemic and lead in a way that protects the health of the public.”
America reacted to the resurgence of Covid-19
After the initial wave of Covid-19 largely hit the Northeast (particularly the New York City area), Louisiana, and Michigan in March, the virus began to spread in the South and West in May and June — really taking off in Arizona, Florida, and Texas before eventually hitting just about the rest of the country.
States reacted as hot spots did in the first round: instituting new measures pushing social distancing, masking, testing, and contact tracing. That’s seemingly led to a drop in Covid-19 cases nationwide, driven largely by lower case counts in California, Florida, and Texas.
One of state governments’ go-to moves was to shut down risky indoor spaces, particularly indoor dining and bars. Arizona, Florida, and Texas all pulled back their reopenings to close down bars, as did California, Colorado, Illinois, Iowa, and Michigan. Some local and state governments also took stricter measures to close down risky places, including movie theaters.
Based on what we now know about the coronavirus, these indoor spaces are a major source of transmission. The virus seems to spread best in closed-off, poorly ventilated areas where people hang out close together for long periods of time (15 minutes or more). Especially in restaurants or bars, people may not be wearing masks — you can’t eat or drink with one on — further increasing the risk of spread, as some research suggests.
On the flip side, this suggests outdoor spaces are relatively safe during this pandemic. The outdoors aren’t a panacea; it’s still a good idea to keep more than 6 feet from others and wear a mask. But they’re better. During the recent surge of Covid-19, that knowledge — which we simply didn’t have early in the pandemic — has given many people an outlet to socialize and get out of their houses without putting themselves at as much risk. That’s made the current circumstances and renewal of some social distancing measures a bit more bearable and sustainable.
“I think the message that being outdoors is less risky may also play a role” in the Covid-19 decline, Tara Smith, an epidemiologist at Kent State University, told me. “When people are gathering, I’ve anecdotally seen a lot of social media posts noting they’re staying outside as much as possible rather than having indoor events.”
At the same time, more states instituted mask mandates. According to the AARP, 34 states and Washington, DC, now require wearing a mask in some form or another. In states that haven’t instituted mask mandates, some local governments have done so.
Based on what we now know about Covid-19, this too will help: As a respiratory virus, the coronavirus seems to spread when people talk, shout, laugh, breathe, sigh, or do anything else that might spew virus-containing droplets out of their mouths and noses. Putting up a physical barrier, whether through a cloth mask, surgical mask, or respirator, to stop those droplets blocks at least some of the virus’s spread.
On top of the government actions, the public continued or stepped up their own social distancing and masking efforts. In Gallup’s surveys, about 73 percent of polled Americans still reported “always” or “very often” practicing social distancing over the previous 24 hours as of August 30. And 92 percent of polled Americans said they wore a mask in the previous seven days when outside their homes, particularly in indoor settings.
Experts cautioned that it’s not really possible, as of now, to definitively say that all these efforts helped, given that researchers will need time to decisively prove what’s going on. “It’s hard to do the kind of analyses needed to know for sure what all the factors are,” Jen Kates, director of global health and HIV policy at the Kaiser Family Foundation, told me.
But there’s good reason to believe they helped. A review of the research in The Lancet concluded that “evidence shows that physical distancing of more than 1 [meter] is highly effective and that face masks are associated with protection, even in non-health-care settings.” Other studies have supported both social distancing and masking measures.
There’s also a bit of common sense to this. As Kates told me, “We saw the opposite earlier in the summer.” When the public and states eased up on social distancing, especially indoors, and didn’t take masking seriously enough, the US saw a surge in Covid-19 cases and deaths. Doing the opposite, unsurprisingly, has helped reduce new cases and deaths.
The federal government has been largely absent
One thing experts have consistently lamented: the federal government.
From the beginning, Trump has not done a good job with the coronavirus outbreak. He’s downplayed the risk — deliberately, as he admitted in recorded interviews with journalist Bob Woodward. He failed to scale up a testing and tracing system like the ones other developed countries, including Germany, New Zealand, and South Korea, used to control their outbreaks, instead punting the issue to the states. He’s given mixed messages on masking, recently mocking Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden for wearing one. He’s encouraged states to reopen prematurely, calling on residents to “LIBERATE” themselves.
None of this makes any sense, and it defies the advice that experts have consistently given on Covid-19. “There was a failure to realize what an efficiently spreading respiratory virus for which we have no vaccine and no antiviral meant,” Amesh Adalja, a senior scholar at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security, recently told me. “From the very beginning, that minimization … set a tone that reverberated from the highest levels of government to what the average person believes about the virus.”
Trump’s failures were felt during the recent resurgence in coronavirus cases. Although experts had called on the federal government to dramatically scale up nationwide testing capacity in the spring and summer, the Trump administration by and large refused, claiming the federal government was merely a “supplier of last resort.” This left local and state governments, with far fewer resources than the federal government, to scale up testing and tracing on their own.
The result: As coronavirus cases hit new peaks in various states throughout July and August, there were delays as long as weeks in getting test results back. In many respects, this made the tests useless. Testing is supposed to confirm that someone is sick as early as possible, letting both the infected person and public health officials take steps — from isolation to notifying close contacts of the infected and asking them to quarantine — to prevent further spread of the disease. But if people can only confirm they’re infected weeks after infection, and subsequently days or weeks after they’re actually transmitting the virus, that’s too late.
More broadly, the US has continued to struggle to build up testing. Overall testing numbers each day in the US continue to hover around 600,000 to 900,000, increasing little, if at all, since July. Experts recommend that the percent of tests that come back positive — which gauges whether there’s enough testing to meet the scope of an outbreak — should be below 5 percent or even 3 percent. The US’s positive rate is 5.2 percent, and most states are above the 5 percent cutoff, with some as high as 15 percent or 20 percent.
Trump, however, has suggested he doesn’t want more testing. Arguing that testing makes the US look bad because it reveals more cases, Trump said he told his people, “Slow the testing down, please.” Last month, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention seemed to listen — updating a guidance to say that people without symptoms may not need to get tested even after close contact with people known to have Covid-19, effectively recommending fewer people at risk get tested.
For Trump, the single goal appears to be making the US look like it’s back to normal, as if the pandemic isn’t messing up so many people’s lives, before the November election. But the reality is that the virus is here to stay, at least until we have a vaccine or an effective treatment. The countries that have gotten closer to normal, like Germany and South Korea, have taken the aggressive steps Trump has so far rejected or downplayed.
Meanwhile, other parts of the federal government aren’t doing a good job, either. Though Congress passed a sweeping stimulus package and other measures earlier this year to deal with the initial brunt of Covid-19, it’s failed to renew those measures as many have expired — with the current big proposal caught up in partisan fights over just how large the benefits for people affected by the bad economy should be.
So dealing with the virus, particularly its most recent resurgence, has been left to the public and to state and local governments, even as they face crippling budget shortfalls as a result of the collapsed economy — with little support from the federal government.
The fall and winter could bring new surges of Covid-19
None of this is to say that the US has, by any means, conquered Covid-19.
“I do worry, though, that fatigue is setting in,” Saskia Popescu, an infectious disease epidemiologist, told me. “I see this in Arizona as the state reopens and the percent positivity [for tests] increases, many might feel the outbreak is over in the US or something we can relax on.”
The US continues suffering more Covid-19 deaths each day than any other developed country. As of September 10, the death rate in the US was 2.19 per million people — 50 percent higher than second-place Spain (1.42) and third-place Israel (1.4), and more than triple fourth-place Australia (0.66).
That adds to an already grisly statistic: Although the US has not suffered the most Covid-19 deaths of any wealthy nation, it’s in the bottom 20 percent for total deaths since the pandemic began, and reports about seven times the coronavirus deaths as the median developed country. If America had the same death rate as, for example, Canada, 100,000 more Americans would likely be alive today.
Recent spikes in parts of the Midwest and South — particularly in North Dakota, South Dakota, Iowa, and Alabama — have also shown that the epidemic in the US is by no means over. If a state gets careless, it’s very likely to see a big spike. South Dakota, for example, allowed a mass gathering at the Sturgis Motorcycle Rally, and that appeared to contribute to the state’s recent surge in Covid-19.
William Hanage, an epidemiologist at Harvard, suggested there might be a divide in how well metropolitan areas are doing compared with more suburban and rural places. That could lead to spikes in cases in less densely populated places, Hanage told me: “The Midwest is much more sparsely populated, but when the virus comes to town it can still do damage. It’s just less predictable when it will come to town.”
There are also concerns that recent Labor Day celebrations, in which friends and families gathered, could already have fueled a Covid-19 surge that we’ll see in the next few days or weeks. But they also may not — if these gatherings were largely outdoors, and people respected social distancing and masking recommendations.
The next big threat could come in the fall and winter. Schools are now reopening, already leading to outbreaks in universities and K-12 settings. In colder areas, it will become much harder to gather outside. Families are bound to gather for the holidays, from Thanksgiving to New Year’s Day. Another flu season is coming, which could strain health care systems at a time they might be dealing with a surge in Covid-19.
And some cities and states have started to relax their measures. Even New York, which has been very cautious since its huge outbreak in the spring, will soon reopen indoor dining in New York City. San Francisco, which has been a leader in early action, is also reopening several indoor spaces, including barbershops, churches, and gyms.
“The virus spreads when a large number of people gather indoors,” Ashish Jha, dean of the Brown University School of Public Health, recently told me. “That’s going to happen more in December than it did in July — and July was a pretty awful month.”
Maybe things won’t go so badly. Maybe the safeguards cities and states have in place will keep the virus at bay, even in indoor areas. Maybe the population immunity built up from so many people already getting sick will offer some protection, as long as people continue to practice some social distancing and masking. Maybe the public will keep following social distancing and masking recommendations after seeing two large Covid-19 waves in the US. Maybe continued social distancing will suppress the next flu season (as seemed to happen in the Southern Hemisphere).
Or perhaps things will go badly. That’s the gamble with the coronavirus: As long as we don’t have a way to vanquish it through a vaccine or other treatment, it presents a constant risk. So the ongoing decline in coronavirus cases will spare some people from suffering and save lives, but it doesn’t mean it’s time to declare victory just yet.
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vox--2020-09-14--Trump’s Nevada rally was an exercise in delegitimizing voting — and denying reality

President Donald Trump traveled to Minden , Nevada — a town about 50 miles south of Reno — for a rambling , grievance-filled campaign rally on Saturday .
Over the course of a 90-minute speech , Trump attacked mail-in voting , Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden , and Nevada Gov .
Steve Sisolak , while lamenting his press coverage , long drives , and the fact he was not able to have Air Force One behind him as he spoke .
He also once again suggested that he should be allowed to serve more than two terms in office , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ from his speech was anything approaching a cohesive second-term agenda or a policy platform .
What little policy his speech did contain was delivered suggestively , in the context of what the president is against , including limiting fracking and teaching children “ poisonous anti-American lies in school.
” Far more of Trump ’ s remarks focused on attempts to demean his opponents and preemptively cast doubt on an election that national polls show him trailing in .
Trump has spent much of the summer searching for an attack that will stick to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ; that he ’ s a puppet of the radical left ; and that he ’ ll usher in the apocalypse — and all three messages were on display in abundance Saturday .
Biden , Trump claimed Saturday , is “ unable , ” a “ pathetic human being , ” and suggested that his physical and mental condition are such that he “ doesn ’ t know he ’ s alive.
” The president worked to assert vice presidential nominee Sen. Kamala Harris is the actual driver of Biden ’ s policy @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of Sen. Bernie Sanders , and telling supporters that if Biden were to win , Harris would become president “ in about a month.
” Later in the speech , Trump also told supporters that a Biden victory would “ permanently destroy the lives and dreams of tens of millions of Americans ... and lead [ to ] countless deaths from suicide.
” It isn ’ t clear that these sorts of attacks have changed public opinion ; recent polls indicate most Americans believe Biden is the stronger candidate on public safety , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Sunday found more voters see Biden as “ mentally sound ” than the president .
Trump wants to delegitimize the November election Trump devoted a great deal of time Saturday to going after the legitimacy of the November election , telling supporters that “ we have a rigged election .
It ’ s a rigged election.
” It ’ s not a new talking point for Trump , who has already mounted a sustained campaign against mail-in voting and the US Postal Service — and who continues to claim there was widespread voter @ @ @ @ @ @ @ there was not .
But in an election where as many as six in 10 Americans say they plan to vote early and a historic number of ballots are likely to be cast by mail , such rhetoric takes on a dangerous new dimension .
There ’ s a fair chance we won ’ t know who won on election night as ballots are counted — many states accept ballots postmarked on Election Day for days afterward — and Trump is already sending up a signal that he plans to dispute the results @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Day if early returns show him ahead .
“ The only way we ’ re tied is if they screw around with the ballots , which they will do in my opinion , ” Trump said Saturday .
In anticipation of a candidate announcing they have won before ballots are all counted , Facebook and Twitter have announced new policies prohibiting candidates from “ claiming victory before election results have been certified.
” Trump also suggested Saturday that his supporters should turn out as poll watchers , “ because with you people watching @ @ @ @ @ @ @ be pretty hard to cheat .
I ’ ll tell you , I wouldn ’ t want to be a cheater.
” The suggestion is a concerning one , however .
There is a history of GOP poll watchers engaging in voter intimidation — one that led to a since-expired federal consent decree curbing such activity .
With instances of armed Trump supporters engaging in pseudo-law enforcement vigilantism , there ’ s reason for concern that poll watching could lead to further voter intimidation in November .
In addition to his attacks on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to hold forth on the merits of his coronavirus response .
“ We ’ re at like , around 180,000 [ deaths ] , ” he told rallygoers Saturday .
“ We ’ ve done an incredible job.
” In reality , more than 193,000 people have died from Covid-19 in the US , and the US response has been uniquely poor compared to other nations .
On Friday alone — the first day in more than five months that Canada reported zero Covid-19 deaths — more than 1,000 Americans died .
As @ @ @ @ @ @ @ undistanced crowd , though , the Trump campaign has by and large decided to move on from the coronavirus , even as the US death toll continues to climb .
A gathering the size of the president ’ s rally flies in the face of virtually every pandemic best practice under the sun , and , in fact , Trump ’ s event was shunted from the Reno airport to neighboring Minden after Reno officials refused to allow the rally to be held for public health reasons .
On Sunday , Trump held @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , which is likely even more of a health risk and something the campaign had avoided since criticism of its Tulsa , Oklahoma , rally in June .
As Vox ’ s Aaron Rupar wrote after an outdoors Trump rally in North Carolina last week , the president ’ s insistence on holding rallies reflects an unwillingness to learn from past mistakes that borders on callousness : The recent batch of Trump rallies were the first since June 20 , when he held one at the BOK Center in Tulsa , Oklahoma , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The Trump campaign ’ s decision to ignore warnings from public health experts likely fueled a spike in coronavirus cases in the area .
“ In the past few days , we ’ ve seen almost 500 new cases , and we had several large events just over two weeks ago , so I guess we just connect the dots , ” Tulsa City/County Health Department Director Dr. Bruce Dart said days after the rally , according to the Associated Press .
Herman Cain , a prominent Trump supporter who was photographed at @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Covid-19 after the rally and died .
In short , between spinning a fictional narrative on the pandemic , eroding trust in voting , and his personal attacks on Biden , Trump spent a disparate amount of time Saturday constructing an alternate reality for himself and his supporters .
It wasn ’ t a policy speech — it was barely even a reelection message — but it was pure , unfiltered Trump .
Help keep Vox free for all Millions turn to Vox each month to understand what ’ s happening in the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a racial reckoning to what is , quite possibly , the most consequential presidential election of our lifetimes .
Our mission has never been more vital than it is in this moment : to empower you through understanding .
But our distinctive brand of explanatory journalism takes resources — particularly during a pandemic and an economic downturn .
Even when the economy and the news advertising market recovers , your support will be a critical part of sustaining our resource-intensive work , and helping everyone make sense of an increasingly chaotic world .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ 3 .

President Donald Trump traveled to Minden, Nevada — a town about 50 miles south of Reno — for a rambling, grievance-filled campaign rally on Saturday.
Over the course of a 90-minute speech, Trump attacked mail-in voting, Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden, and Nevada Gov. Steve Sisolak, while lamenting his press coverage, long drives, and the fact he was not able to have Air Force One behind him as he spoke. He also once again suggested that he should be allowed to serve more than two terms in office, which would be unconstitutional.
Notably absent from his speech was anything approaching a cohesive second-term agenda or a policy platform. What little policy his speech did contain was delivered suggestively, in the context of what the president is against, including limiting fracking and teaching children “poisonous anti-American lies in school.” Far more of Trump’s remarks focused on attempts to demean his opponents and preemptively cast doubt on an election that national polls show him trailing in.
Trump has spent much of the summer searching for an attack that will stick to Biden — that he’s senile; that he’s a puppet of the radical left; that he’ll usher in the apocalypse — and all three messages were on display in abundance Saturday.
Biden, Trump claimed Saturday, is “unable” and a “pathetic human being,” and suggested that his physical and mental condition are such that he “doesn’t know he’s alive.” The president worked to assert vice presidential nominee Sen. Kamala Harris is the actual driver of Biden’s policy, incorrectly calling her to the left of Sen. Bernie Sanders, and telling supporters that if Biden were to win, Harris would become president “in about a month.” Later in the speech, Trump also told supporters that a Biden victory would “permanently destroy the lives and dreams of tens of millions of Americans ... and lead [to] countless deaths from suicide.”
Trump, slurring, calls Joe Biden "a pathetic human being." If a guy sounding like this approached you on the other street, you'd run the other way. pic.twitter.com/cIcnxolFGQ — Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) September 13, 2020
It isn’t clear that these sorts of attacks have changed public opinion; recent polls indicate most Americans believe Biden is the stronger candidate on public safety, and a new Fox News poll released Sunday found more voters see Biden as “mentally sound” than the president.
Trump wants to delegitimize the November election
Trump devoted a great deal of time Saturday to going after the legitimacy of the November election, telling supporters that “we have a rigged election. It’s a rigged election.”
"We have a rigged election. It's a rigged election" -- Trump plants the seeds for challenging the results of November's election pic.twitter.com/iTsOSPAweG — Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) September 13, 2020
It’s not a new talking point for Trump, who has already mounted a sustained campaign against mail-in voting and the US Postal Service — and who continues to claim there was widespread voter fraud in the 2016 election, when there was not.
But in an election where as many as six in 10 Americans say they plan to vote early and a historic number of ballots are likely to be cast by mail, such rhetoric takes on a dangerous new dimension. There’s a fair chance we won’t know who won on election night as ballots are counted — many states accept ballots postmarked on Election Day for days afterward — and Trump is already sending up a signal that he plans to dispute the results or even prematurely claim victory on Election Day if early returns show him ahead.
“The only way we’re tied is if they screw around with the ballots, which they will do in my opinion,” Trump said Saturday.
In anticipation of a candidate announcing they have won before ballots are all counted, Facebook and Twitter have rolled out new policies prohibiting candidates from “claiming victory before election results have been certified.”
Trump also suggested Saturday that his supporters should turn out as poll watchers, “because with you people watching the polls it’s going to be pretty hard to cheat. I’ll tell you, I wouldn’t want to be a cheater.”
"I hope you're all going to be poll watchers, because with you people watching the polls it's going to be pretty hard to cheat. I'll tell you, I wouldn't want to be a cheater" -- Trump pic.twitter.com/zihzzgx6LI — Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) September 13, 2020
The suggestion is a concerning one, however. There is a history of GOP poll watchers engaging in voter intimidation — one that led to a since-expired federal consent decree curbing such activity. With instances of armed Trump supporters engaging in pseudo-law enforcement vigilantism, there’s reason for concern that poll watching could lead to further voter intimidation in November.
Trump is still pretending Covid-19 doesn’t exist
In addition to his attacks on voting, Trump used his Saturday rally to hold forth on the merits of his coronavirus response.
“We’re at, like, around 180,000 [deaths],” he told rallygoers Saturday. “We’ve done an incredible job.”
"We're at like, around 180,000 ... we've done an incredible job" -- Trump undercounts the US coronavirus death toll by about 15,000 human beings pic.twitter.com/VNFwf4XbII — Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) September 13, 2020
In reality, more than 193,000 people have died of Covid-19 in the US, and the US response has been uniquely poor compared to other nations. On Friday alone — the first day in more than five months that Canada reported zero Covid-19 deaths — more than 1,000 Americans died.
As evidenced by Saturday’s unmasked and undistanced crowd, though, the Trump campaign has by and large decided to move on from the coronavirus, even as the US death toll continues to climb. A gathering the size of the president’s rally flies in the face of virtually every pandemic best practice, and, in fact, Trump’s event was shunted from the Reno airport to neighboring Minden after Reno officials refused to allow the rally to be held for public health reasons.
On Sunday, Trump held another Nevada rally, this time indoors, which is likely even more of a health risk and something the campaign had avoided since criticism of its Tulsa, Oklahoma, rally in June.
As Vox’s Aaron Rupar wrote after an outdoor Trump rally in North Carolina last week, the president’s insistence on holding rallies reflects an unwillingness to learn from past mistakes that borders on callousness:
The recent batch of Trump rallies were the first since June 20, when he held one at the BOK Center in Tulsa, Oklahoma, that ended up being a disaster. The Trump campaign’s decision to ignore warnings from public health experts likely fueled a spike in coronavirus cases in the area. “In the past few days, we’ve seen almost 500 new cases, and we had several large events just over two weeks ago, so I guess we just connect the dots,” Tulsa City/County Health Department Director Dr. Bruce Dart said days after the rally, according to the Associated Press. Herman Cain, a prominent Trump supporter who was photographed at the rally without a mask, contracted Covid-19 after the rally and died.
In short, between spinning a fictional narrative on the pandemic, eroding trust in voting, and his personal attacks on Biden, Trump spent a disparate amount of time Saturday constructing an alternate reality for himself and his supporters. It wasn’t a policy speech — it was barely even a reelection message — but it was pure, unfiltered Trump.