vox--2020-10-09--171 countries are teaming up for a Covid-19 vaccine. But not the US.

Share All sharing options for : 171 countries are teaming up for a Covid-19 vaccine .
But not the US .
When SARS-CoV-2 started spreading , the countries of the world had no pandemic vaccine plans in place .
But a lot can happen in six months .
Today , there are 40 vaccine candidates for the coronavirus being studied in humans — including nine in the final phase of testing .
There ’ s also the world ’ s first attempt at a global effort to ensure that , when we have a working vaccine or vaccines , all @ @ @ @ @ @ @ GDP .
The initiative is called Covax , and it aims to support the development and equitable distribution of 2 billion doses of Covid-19 vaccines before the end of 2021 .
It ’ s the biggest multilateral effort since the Paris climate agreement , according to Seth Berkley , the CEO of Gavi , the Vaccine Alliance , one of the partners behind Covax , along with the World Health Organization and the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations ( CEPI ) .
It ’ s the “ busiest period of my life , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of October 9 , 171 high- , low- , and middle-income countries — representing nearly two-thirds of the world ’ s population — signed up to Covax .
This includes China , which had missed a previous deadline for joining .
That ’ s a remarkable feat of collaboration , particularly at a time when globalism and multinationalism are under threat .
Covax has two major parts : The “ Facility ” is a purchasing pool for higher income countries , and the “ Advance Market Commitment , ” or AMC , is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ By promising to buy a certain number of vaccine doses from manufacturers , countries that join the Facility get access to any vaccines that are approved in Covax ’ s portfolio , while also creating a global market for the shots and driving prices down .
The AMC , meanwhile , directs development aid as well as private sector and philanthropy donations to low- and middle-income countries that may not otherwise be able to afford a coronavirus vaccine .
( So far , the AMC is partially funded with about $ 1.8 of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ end of 2020 , according to Gavi . )
Together , all countries that are part of Covax are supposed to follow a plan for fairly distributing the vaccine in order to prevent self-interested hoarding at the national level .
By working together , the highest-risk people in every country can get immunized , instead of all residents of the wealthiest nations .
But despite the great promise , Covax has also faced numerous challenges and some criticism .
Many higher-income countries in the Facility have also inked bilateral deals with manufacturers , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ policy adviser , called “ double dipping.
” “ [ It ] means that they are not truly working fully and fairly ... to see equitable access to a vaccine , ” she said .
Meanwhile , the world ’ s largest economy — the US — has decided to sit Covax out , causing some observers to question whether the initiative will achieve its goal .
As Lawrence Gostin , a global health law professor at Georgetown University , put it : “ [ Covax ] will be an enormously helpful initiative @ @ @ @ @ @ @ But without a major country like the US , Covax may not “ have the financing and political muscle to assure global equity.
” He added : “ I still foresee millions of poor people not having rapid and affordable access to a Covid-19 vaccine.
” I recently called Berkley to find out more about how Covax will work , and why , despite the challenges , he thinks Covax can get the world vaccinated for Covid-19 — if , that is , at least one of the vaccines in Covax ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ transcript of that conversation , edited for length and clarity .
Can we start with the historical context in which Covax was created ?
What happened in the past with vaccine manufacturing in an outbreak and what will happen now ?
Well , in the past , you ’ ve had outbreaks where the wealthy buy all the [ vaccine ] doses and there ’ s none available for the developing world .
[ The Covax effort ] isn ’ t going to be perfect , obviously .
But the idea is to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ developing countries .
So the fact that the world is coming together to try to put together a shared vision and a shared facility itself is historical .
And I believe that this is the largest multilateral effort since the Paris climate agreement .
So at a time of not a lot of interest , or reduced interest in multilateralism , I think that ’ s a positive thing .
The bigger picture that I keep coming back to is that the world was overdue for a pandemic .
You and many others @ @ @ @ @ @ @ So if we expected one , why is Covax happening now , six months in ?
It ’ s a very good question , and I think the answer is quite clear .
With smaller pandemics , you capture people ’ s attention — including the media .
I remember during the West African Ebola outbreak , it was called the “ ISIS of infectious disease.
” It was the news story of the decade .
Then , as soon as it ’ s over , people just go back to life and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
It hadn ’ t really captured people for [ the ] long term .
So my hope is that the silver lining [ of the Covid-19 pandemic ] will be that people will say , “ Okay , now we understand that infectious diseases really can make a difference.
” If you think about it , the International Monetary Fund is talking somewhere between $ 9 trillion and $ 12 trillion [ the amount countries need to invest to counteract the economic effects of the pandemic ] .
And that ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ normal at the end of next year .
Given that cost , the type of money you ’ re talking about to do a little bit of prevention is not even a rounding error .
And the challenge has always been , during the acute time people are interested , and then afterwards people lose interest and don ’ t want to invest .
So I think it may be different this time .
“ So my hope is that the silver lining will be that people will say , ‘ Okay , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ can make a difference ’ ” If Covax is successful , could the architecture you ’ ve created be used in future pandemics ?
That ’ s correct .
This type of solidarity is critical because otherwise what you ’ re going to end up with is just constant reintroduction of infections and the inability to go back to normal .
Countries that join Covax will have access to the dozen vaccines the organization invested in , assuming clinical trials prove they are effective and safe .
How did you choose which vaccines @ @ @ @ @ @ @ was to try to get to 12 to 15 different vaccines .
And this is a partnership .
CEPI [ the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations ] is part of it , and they already have nine vaccines in their portfolio , but of course , we ’ ll see how those vaccines play out .
Originally , CEPI was looking for speed , scale , and access , and vaccines that could be produced at scale in 2021 because the idea is to try to get up to 2 billion doses by @ @ @ @ @ @ @ re also having conversations with other manufacturers that haven ’ t been working with CEPI , and then also with the Gates Foundation , which has a portfolio .
The Gates Foundation ... is looking for vaccines that might be complementary to [ CEPI ’ s ] — to have different types , ease of delivery , low cost , and scalable manufacturing .
So , we ’ re looking at different types of vaccine to get the broadest portfolio possible .
So there is a chance all the vaccines in Covax ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ any of these are going to work or not .
Obviously , data ’ s beginning to come in to show [ the vaccine can generate ] immunologic reactions , and showing antibodies to the spike protein .
But of course we don ’ t have definitive proof that antibodies provide durable protection against the virus .
So these are questions that are going to have to come , which is why this whole collaboration is so unique .
Assuming we have vaccines that work , can we talk a bit about how @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
I read that the idea is that 20 percent of the population — the most high-risk groups — in each country in Covax would be vaccinated in the first year ?
Originally , we started with a 20 percent suggestion , and that was calculated based basically on an average — the numbers of health workers who were front-line and at risk , particularly in developing countries , [ as well as ] elderly and other high-risk groups .
But you have countries like Japan , where the demographics of the population @ @ @ @ @ @ @ more elderly .
And then you have countries like Nigeria , where the average age is 19 .
So that balances out , and that ’ s why we [ now ] allow countries to have a range — 10 to 50 percent — to choose where they start .
[ There are likely to be ] supply limitations in the first 12 to 18 months .
And therefore we would try to get some vaccine to every country rather than a few countries fully vaccinated and everybody else having none .
Already @ @ @ @ @ @ @ regions — Australia , Canada , the United States , the United Kingdom , Japan , the European Union — have signed bilateral agreements with manufacturers to guarantee doses of vaccines for their populations before they ’ re even licensed .
Don ’ t these deals undermine the Covax initiative ?
I mean , would the world be better off in a situation where everybody worked multilaterally ?
Absolutely .
Because you could then use the resources most appropriately .
You could scale up the promising [ vaccine ] candidates .
But the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ countries , are going to do bilateral deals .
So my job is not to bemoan that , my job is to try to work with those countries and try to make sure that we end up with fair allocation .
And for those countries , for the ones , frankly , that can afford a full portfolio of [ vaccines ] themselves , if you want to spend $ 10 billion or $ 11 billion like the US does , you can build a big portfolio .
And that has huge advantages @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a lot of clinical testing , including phase 3 trials .
They do manufacturing scale-up and process engineering .
And so that has a value for all the other groups ; many other [ developing ] countries can ’ t afford to do that .
So the challenge for those countries is either they invest in seven , eight , nine , 10 bilateral deals , or they try to work with somebody who has a large portfolio with the understanding that if their product falls out then they have access to other @ @ @ @ @ @ @ better off in a situation where everybody worked multilaterally ?
Absolutely .
But the reality is some countries are going to do bilateral deals.
” You had to push back the deadline by which countries could join from the end of August 31 to September 18 .
What challenges did you face in that period in trying to get high-income countries on side ?
During that period we added the optionality side of the agreements , [ where countries can make an optional commitment , paying a higher amount for vaccines later but @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
And that was because many countries wanted to have some ability to opt out of certain vaccines .
So that was the adjustment we made .
And the obvious challenge for all of us is trying to move as quickly as possible to go ahead and put deals in place because over time more and more bilateral deals are getting done and doses are getting promised to others .
But will the fact that countries can opt out make it difficult for manufacturers to scale up and make enough vaccines for everybody @ @ @ @ @ @ @ really changes anything .
All it says is , if I ’ m a country that has done a few bilateral deals , I want to join Covax because you might have some interesting vaccines , and because I want to be supportive of the global effort .
But it doesn ’ t make a lot of sense for me to come in and get the same doses I already bought .
So in that case , I ’ m willing to join , but let me opt out of the ones that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s still good for the world because then their funding is being used to move other vaccines forward , and that ’ s the insurance they want anyway , and they ’ re supporting this global effort .
It seems the big three countries that haven ’ t joined are Russia , China , and the US .
Is there any movement on getting the US to join ?
[ Update : After this conversation , China joined Covax on October 8 — though details of what China will contribute to the group @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ] We ’ re having conversations , obviously , with all the countries .
And when you say join , I don ’ t think the US , right now in their current situation , feels like they would need to purchase doses from the Facility because they ’ ve spent $ 11 billion on building out their own portfolio .
That being said , I think they fully understand the importance of what we ’ re trying to do to deliver a vaccine to the rest of the world , particularly developing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of that .
So we ’ ll see if , at the end , we figure out a way to work together on some of those other issues .
As you know , China and Russia both have their vaccines .
Russia ’ s is already licensed .
And China has a range of vaccines in their portfolio .
But of course , again , it ’ s going to be an important issue for them to think about their vaccines for other countries , but also perhaps vaccines that have certain characteristics @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ ll see .
That ’ s interesting because the EU also has a big portfolio of vaccines they ’ ve invested in , and yet they ’ ve joined the Facility .
So just to be clear , the US also hasn ’ t committed anything yet to the AMC ?
With the US and other countries making their own bilateral deals to purchase doses directly for their populations , will there be enough vaccine to go around for the rest of the world ?
I mean , that is going to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is a pass-through facility .
So at the end , a country buys vaccines for its population .
And we facilitate the engagement and we go ahead and put the reservations in and make sure the doses are produced .
But it ’ s not like we just buy all the doses , put them in a warehouse somewhere .
So the issue is going to be working with manufacturers ... to make sure that there is manufacturing capacity scaled up .
And that ’ s the important part of it .
CEPI @ @ @ @ @ @ @ look at manufacturing capacity .
Obviously the more doses that get promised , the more of the capacity gets pushed .
But with investments , one can increase the manufacturing capacity , that ’ s the hypothesis .
How will you define success with Covax ?
If we can deliver a vaccine simultaneously , in developed and developing countries , if we can get protection everywhere , even if it isn ’ t full , even if it doesn ’ t cover everything — [ we ] change the dynamic [ of the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ also show the power of working together .
If this was an outbreak of diabetes , [ countries ] could make an argument that we got to take care of our people .
In a highly infectious pandemic , the idea that you ’ re just going to protect your people and ignore everybody else leaves vast reservoirs of virus circulating .
And you ’ re not going to be able to go back to normal trade , tourism , travel , any of those things in that circumstance .
So , basically @ @ @ @ @ @ @ perspective and not a local perspective , even though normally people think about protection locally .
Getting countries to think globally about disease risk has always been challenging — but it seems particularly so today .
That ’ s why it ’ s so amazing that we ’ re able to get this type of buy-in .
The other thing that ’ s important about this — you have to think about [ vaccine development ] as a global commons and a global solution to this problem .
Remember with the Ebola vaccine @ @ @ @ @ @ @ technology , and they all thought they were going to win .
And what [ vaccine ] actually won ?
It was a Canadian vaccine , transferred to an American biotech , transferred to an American multilateral manufactured in Germany .
That ’ s the way science works .
So imagine if everybody said , ‘ I just want my vaccine , my manufacturing , my assays , my adjuvants .
That ’ s it.
’ You would not have the best science .
You would not have the best possibility of success @ @ @ @ @ @ @ do you have any predictions for when we might have an effective vaccine ?
Well , I mean , there are nine vaccines in phase three trials right now .
So in the fourth quarter we ’ re likely to begin to get some data .
And we have no idea if it ’ ll be positive or negative , or if trials will get stopped because of side effects .
But I think in the next three or four months we ’ ll begin to get some sense of whether we ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , and how effective the vaccines are .
So you ’ re hopeful , but also clear-eyed , about the road ahead .
I have to be honest about what we know , but obviously I ’ m optimistic .
We have lots of signals that suggest that things are moving forward .
But as an old vaccine friend of mine , a vaccinologist , said , ‘ mice lie , monkeys don ’ t always tell the truth — it ’ s only people that matter.
’ In a sense that ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Vox free for all Millions turn to Vox each month to understand what ’ s happening in the news , from the coronavirus crisis to a racial reckoning to what is , quite possibly , the most consequential presidential election of our lifetimes .
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Share All sharing options for: 171 countries are teaming up for a Covid-19 vaccine. But not the US.
When SARS-CoV-2 started spreading, the countries of the world had no pandemic vaccine plans in place. But a lot can happen in six months.
Today, there are 40 vaccine candidates for the coronavirus being studied in humans — including nine in the final phase of testing.
There’s also the world’s first attempt at a global effort to ensure that, when we have a working vaccine or vaccines, all countries have access, no matter their GDP.
The initiative is called Covax, and it aims to support the development and equitable distribution of 2 billion doses of Covid-19 vaccines before the end of 2021. It’s the biggest multilateral effort since the Paris climate agreement, according to Seth Berkley, the CEO of Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance, one of the partners behind Covax, along with the World Health Organization and the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations (CEPI).
It’s the “busiest period of my life,” he told Vox recently.
As of October 9, 171 high-, low-, and middle-income countries — representing nearly two-thirds of the world’s population — signed up to Covax. This includes China, which had missed a previous deadline for joining. That’s a remarkable feat of collaboration, particularly at a time when globalism and multinationalism are under threat.
Covax has two major parts: The “Facility” is a purchasing pool for higher income countries, and the “Advance Market Commitment,” or AMC, is a fundraising effort for poorer countries.
By promising to buy a certain number of vaccine doses from manufacturers, countries that join the Facility get access to any vaccines that are approved in Covax’s portfolio, while also creating a global market for the shots and driving prices down. The AMC, meanwhile, directs development aid as well as private sector and philanthropy donations to low- and middle-income countries that may not otherwise be able to afford a coronavirus vaccine. (So far, the AMC is partially funded with about $1.8 of the $2 billion needed by the end of 2020, according to Gavi.)
Together, all countries that are part of Covax are supposed to follow a plan for fairly distributing the vaccine in order to prevent self-interested hoarding at the national level. By working together, the highest-risk people in every country can get immunized, instead of all residents of the wealthiest nations.
But despite the great promise, Covax has also faced numerous challenges and some criticism. Many higher-income countries in the Facility have also inked bilateral deals with manufacturers, which Anna Marriott, an Oxfam health policy adviser, called “double dipping.” “[It] means that they are not truly working fully and fairly ... to see equitable access to a vaccine,” she said.
Meanwhile, the world’s largest economy — the US — has decided to sit Covax out, causing some observers to question whether the initiative will achieve its goal. As Lawrence Gostin, a global health law professor at Georgetown University, put it: “[Covax] will be an enormously helpful initiative, pushing the world toward equity.” But without a major country like the US, Covax may not “have the financing and political muscle to assure global equity.” He added: “I still foresee millions of poor people not having rapid and affordable access to a Covid-19 vaccine.”
I recently called Berkley to find out more about how Covax will work, and why, despite the challenges, he thinks Covax can get the world vaccinated for Covid-19 — if, that is, at least one of the vaccines in Covax’s portfolio works. What follows is a transcript of that conversation, edited for length and clarity.
Counteracting vaccine nationalism
Julia Belluz
Can we start with the historical context in which Covax was created? What happened in the past with vaccine manufacturing in an outbreak and what will happen now?
Seth Berkley
Well, in the past, you’ve had outbreaks where the wealthy buy all the [vaccine] doses and there’s none available for the developing world.
[The Covax effort] isn’t going to be perfect, obviously. But the idea is to have vaccines available simultaneously in developed and developing countries.
So the fact that the world is coming together to try to put together a shared vision and a shared facility itself is historical. And I believe that this is the largest multilateral effort since the Paris climate agreement. So at a time of not a lot of interest, or reduced interest in multilateralism, I think that’s a positive thing.
Julia Belluz
The bigger picture that I keep coming back to is that the world was overdue for a pandemic. You and many others have talked about this for years. So if we expected one, why is Covax happening now, six months in?
Seth Berkley
It’s a very good question, and I think the answer is quite clear. With smaller pandemics, you capture people’s attention — including the media. I remember during the West African Ebola outbreak, it was called the “ISIS of infectious disease.” It was the news story of the decade. Then, as soon as it’s over, people just go back to life and that’s yesterday’s problem. It hadn’t really captured people for [the] long term.
So my hope is that the silver lining [of the Covid-19 pandemic] will be that people will say, “Okay, now we understand that infectious diseases really can make a difference.” If you think about it, the International Monetary Fund is talking somewhere between $9 trillion and $12 trillion [the amount countries need to invest to counteract the economic effects of the pandemic]. And that’s assuming that we get life back to normal at the end of next year.
Given that cost, the type of money you’re talking about to do a little bit of prevention is not even a rounding error. And the challenge has always been, during the acute time people are interested, and then afterwards people lose interest and don’t want to invest.
So I think it may be different this time.
“So my hope is that the silver lining will be that people will say, ‘Okay, now we understand that infectious diseases really can make a difference’”
Julia Belluz
If Covax is successful, could the architecture you’ve created be used in future pandemics?
Seth Berkley
That’s correct. This type of solidarity is critical because otherwise what you’re going to end up with is just constant reintroduction of infections and the inability to go back to normal.
Julia Belluz
Countries that join Covax will have access to the dozen vaccines the organization invested in, assuming clinical trials prove they are effective and safe. How did you choose which vaccines to bet on?
Seth Berkley
The original idea was to try to get to 12 to 15 different vaccines. And this is a partnership. CEPI [the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations] is part of it, and they already have nine vaccines in their portfolio, but of course, we’ll see how those vaccines play out. Originally, CEPI was looking for speed, scale, and access, and vaccines that could be produced at scale in 2021 because the idea is to try to get up to 2 billion doses by the end of 2021.
We’re also having conversations with other manufacturers that haven’t been working with CEPI, and then also with the Gates Foundation, which has a portfolio. The Gates Foundation ... is looking for vaccines that might be complementary to [CEPI’s] — to have different types, ease of delivery, low cost, and scalable manufacturing. So, we’re looking at different types of vaccine to get the broadest portfolio possible.
Julia Belluz
So there is a chance all the vaccines in Covax’s portfolio fail?
Seth Berkley
Nobody knows whether any of these are going to work or not. Obviously, data’s beginning to come in to show [the vaccine can generate] immunologic reactions, and showing antibodies to the spike protein. But of course we don’t have definitive proof that antibodies provide durable protection against the virus. So these are questions that are going to have to come, which is why this whole collaboration is so unique.
Julia Belluz
Assuming we have vaccines that work, can we talk a bit about how they would be rolled out in countries. I read that the idea is that 20 percent of the population — the most high-risk groups — in each country in Covax would be vaccinated in the first year?
Seth Berkley
Originally, we started with a 20 percent suggestion, and that was calculated based basically on an average — the numbers of health workers who were front-line and at risk, particularly in developing countries, [as well as] elderly and other high-risk groups. But you have countries like Japan, where the demographics of the population are such that there’s many more elderly. And then you have countries like Nigeria, where the average age is 19. So that balances out, and that’s why we [now] allow countries to have a range — 10 to 50 percent — to choose where they start.
[There are likely to be] supply limitations in the first 12 to 18 months. And therefore we would try to get some vaccine to every country rather than a few countries fully vaccinated and everybody else having none.
Multilateralism in a polarized time
Julia Belluz
Already, a bunch of high-income countries and regions — Australia, Canada, the United States, the United Kingdom, Japan, the European Union — have signed bilateral agreements with manufacturers to guarantee doses of vaccines for their populations before they’re even licensed. Don’t these deals undermine the Covax initiative?
Seth Berkley
I mean, would the world be better off in a situation where everybody worked multilaterally? Absolutely. Because you could then use the resources most appropriately. You could scale up the promising [vaccine] candidates.
But the reality is that countries, or some countries, are going to do bilateral deals. So my job is not to bemoan that, my job is to try to work with those countries and try to make sure that we end up with fair allocation. And for those countries, for the ones, frankly, that can afford a full portfolio of [vaccines] themselves, if you want to spend $10 billion or $11 billion like the US does, you can build a big portfolio. And that has huge advantages for the community because they pay for a lot of clinical testing, including phase 3 trials. They do manufacturing scale-up and process engineering.
And so that has a value for all the other groups; many other [developing] countries can’t afford to do that. So the challenge for those countries is either they invest in seven, eight, nine, 10 bilateral deals, or they try to work with somebody who has a large portfolio with the understanding that if their product falls out then they have access to other products.
“Would the world be better off in a situation where everybody worked multilaterally? Absolutely. But the reality is some countries are going to do bilateral deals.”
Julia Belluz
You had to push back the deadline by which countries could join from the end of August 31 to September 18. What challenges did you face in that period in trying to get high-income countries on side?
Seth Berkley
During that period we added the optionality side of the agreements, [where countries can make an optional commitment, paying a higher amount for vaccines later but avoiding any guarantees of a purchase]. And that was because many countries wanted to have some ability to opt out of certain vaccines. So that was the adjustment we made. And the obvious challenge for all of us is trying to move as quickly as possible to go ahead and put deals in place because over time more and more bilateral deals are getting done and doses are getting promised to others.
Julia Belluz
But will the fact that countries can opt out make it difficult for manufacturers to scale up and make enough vaccines for everybody?
Seth Berkley
I don’t think that really changes anything. All it says is, if I’m a country that has done a few bilateral deals, I want to join Covax because you might have some interesting vaccines, and because I want to be supportive of the global effort. But it doesn’t make a lot of sense for me to come in and get the same doses I already bought.
So in that case, I’m willing to join, but let me opt out of the ones that I already have. And it’s still good for the world because then their funding is being used to move other vaccines forward, and that’s the insurance they want anyway, and they’re supporting this global effort.
Julia Belluz
It seems the big three countries that haven’t joined are Russia, China, and the US. Is there any movement on getting the US to join? [Update: After this conversation, China joined Covax on October 8 — though details of what China will contribute to the group haven’t been made public.]
Seth Berkley
We’re having conversations, obviously, with all the countries. And when you say join, I don’t think the US, right now in their current situation, feels like they would need to purchase doses from the Facility because they’ve spent $11 billion on building out their own portfolio.
That being said, I think they fully understand the importance of what we’re trying to do to deliver a vaccine to the rest of the world, particularly developing countries. And they’re supportive of that. So we’ll see if, at the end, we figure out a way to work together on some of those other issues.
As you know, China and Russia both have their vaccines. Russia’s is already licensed. And China has a range of vaccines in their portfolio. But of course, again, it’s going to be an important issue for them to think about their vaccines for other countries, but also perhaps vaccines that have certain characteristics for them as well. So we’ll see.
Julia Belluz
That’s interesting because the EU also has a big portfolio of vaccines they’ve invested in, and yet they’ve joined the Facility. So just to be clear, the US also hasn’t committed anything yet to the AMC?
Seth Berkley
That is correct.
Julia Belluz
With the US and other countries making their own bilateral deals to purchase doses directly for their populations, will there be enough vaccine to go around for the rest of the world?
Seth Berkley
I mean, that is going to depend obviously on the manufacturers because this is a pass-through facility. So at the end, a country buys vaccines for its population. And we facilitate the engagement and we go ahead and put the reservations in and make sure the doses are produced.
But it’s not like we just buy all the doses, put them in a warehouse somewhere. So the issue is going to be working with manufacturers ... to make sure that there is manufacturing capacity scaled up. And that’s the important part of it. CEPI has done a number of studies to look at manufacturing capacity. Obviously the more doses that get promised, the more of the capacity gets pushed. But with investments, one can increase the manufacturing capacity, that’s the hypothesis.
Julia Belluz
How will you define success with Covax?
Seth Berkley
If we can deliver a vaccine simultaneously, in developed and developing countries, if we can get protection everywhere, even if it isn’t full, even if it doesn’t cover everything — [we] change the dynamic [of the pandemic] locally, [and] also show the power of working together.
If this was an outbreak of diabetes, [countries] could make an argument that we got to take care of our people. In a highly infectious pandemic, the idea that you’re just going to protect your people and ignore everybody else leaves vast reservoirs of virus circulating. And you’re not going to be able to go back to normal trade, tourism, travel, any of those things in that circumstance. So, basically, we need to have a global perspective and not a local perspective, even though normally people think about protection locally.
Julia Belluz
Getting countries to think globally about disease risk has always been challenging — but it seems particularly so today.
Seth Berkley
That’s why it’s so amazing that we’re able to get this type of buy-in. The other thing that’s important about this — you have to think about [vaccine development] as a global commons and a global solution to this problem.
Remember with the Ebola vaccine, we had every country trying their technology, and they all thought they were going to win. And what [vaccine] actually won? It was a Canadian vaccine, transferred to an American biotech, transferred to an American multilateral manufactured in Germany. That’s the way science works. So imagine if everybody said, ‘I just want my vaccine, my manufacturing, my assays, my adjuvants. That’s it.’ You would not have the best science. You would not have the best possibility of success.
Julia Belluz
In terms of a timeline, do you have any predictions for when we might have an effective vaccine?
Seth Berkley
Well, I mean, there are nine vaccines in phase three trials right now. So in the fourth quarter we’re likely to begin to get some data. And we have no idea if it’ll be positive or negative, or if trials will get stopped because of side effects. But I think in the next three or four months we’ll begin to get some sense of whether we’re going to see protection or not, and how effective the vaccines are.
Julia Belluz
So you’re hopeful, but also clear-eyed, about the road ahead.
Seth Berkley
I have to be honest about what we know, but obviously I’m optimistic. We have lots of signals that suggest that things are moving forward. But as an old vaccine friend of mine, a vaccinologist, said, ‘mice lie, monkeys don’t always tell the truth — it’s only people that matter.’ In a sense that’s true on vaccines.


vox--2020-10-09--“I can’t sit this one out”: 6 expats on why voting from abroad is so important this year

Voting from overseas is usually a fairly easy process .
US citizens living abroad request an absentee ballot ( by email , fax , or mail , depending on their state of residence ) , fill it out , and mail it to their county board of elections .
But in 2020 , the process feels especially fraught .
As measures to mitigate the spread of Covid-19 forced the closure of some international borders , mail disruptions have thrown a wrench into the usually smooth procedure .
Then there ’ s President Donald Trump , who has voiced skepticism of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
In August , Trump announced his opposition to more funding for the US Postal Service to help it handle an expected influx of mail-in ballots amid reports of growing delays in mail delivery and the removal of dozens of mailboxes by USPS ( which were suspended due to the uproar ) .
The result has been an erosion of confidence in an election that will lean heavily on mailed ballots : In an August NBC/SurveyMonkey poll , 55 percent of American adults said they were either “ not too confident ” or @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the fairness of the election .
But many expats have already begun the process of voting , having decided not to allow such hurdles to hinder them from exercising their constitutional right .
Per the most recent Overseas Citizen Population Analysis report , 2.9 million eligible American voters live overseas ; in 2016 , Democrats Abroad called them a “ very blue voting bloc.
” For Black Americans living abroad in particular , this election feels crucially important to making their voices heard .
“ It is imperative that I vote — my @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the process for me to be able to , ” said Kenna Williams , who lives in South Africa but has voting residence in California .
“ This year ’ s election is probably the most crucial election I have ever experienced , so I want to make sure I do my part.
” Vox talked to six Americans about their experiences casting ballots from abroad and the potential impact of their vote during an extraordinary time in American history .
The interviews have been lightly edited for length and clarity .
I @ @ @ @ @ @ @ because I went to grad school there .
Ironically , I ’ m from Selma , Alabama , originally , a pivotal place in the history of US voting rights — although as far as I know , my parents never voted , even when it was legal to do it after the Voting Rights Act passed in 1965 .
I think they were still afraid .
They never even talked to me about whether I should vote or not .
That ’ s how afraid I think they were .
I think @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Jimmy Carter when he was running for reelection against Ronald Reagan , and I ’ ve voted in every presidential election since then until I left the country 13 years ago .
I haven ’ t voted since I ’ ve been overseas , for one reason or the other .
But I ’ ll be honest with you : I think the country is on a path to authoritarian fascism that ’ s very real and very dangerous under this president .
The president of the United States is unfit to serve @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
That ’ s really it .
I can ’ t sit this one out !
A friend sent me a link to the Federal Voting Assistance Program website where I could order the ballot so I didn ’ t have to go looking around for it .
I filled out an online form and got an electronic ballot from King County in Washington state for the state and local elections .
I was supposed to mark the ballot , print it , and mail it , but I skipped those questions .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ in state and local politics anymore .
I left the US more than a decade ago , so I only know people at the national level because I still read American newspapers .
I ’ m waiting for the national ballot but I haven ’ t gotten it yet , so I ’ m wondering if they ’ re going to send it to me in time to get it mailed back .
But if I get it in October , I ’ ll turn it around as quickly as I can .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ have to personally experience it , I do have friends still in America ” Stefan Coretti , 32 , recent MBA graduate , currently lives in Paris ( voting residence : New Jersey ) Watching America from abroad is like watching American Horror Story on FX .
With greater video evidence of injustices across America , and now the death of Ruth Bader Ginsburg , America under Trump could mean the erosion of anything that protects middle- and lower-income citizens and the reversal of rights recently given to marginalized communities .
Although I @ @ @ @ @ @ @ experience it , I do have friends still in America .
And the fact is we are in a global economy and the world is tied together .
My hope is to get a Democrat in office so some balance can then be applied to the equation .
I have voted from abroad before , but this year I ’ m in a different country .
The process itself is not confusing , but I believe it should be a lot simpler for those already registered .
I have no concerns that my @ @ @ @ @ @ @ counted , but seeing that I ’ m not in a swing state , my personal vote may not have a large impact .
My major concern is if Trump loses , he may try to make an amendment to give himself more years in office .
“ We all need to pull our weight no matter where we are ” It is imperative that I vote — my ancestors fought too long and died in the process for me to be able to .
My parents were regular election poll workers and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ voting was a priority .
This year ’ s election is probably the most crucial election I have ever experienced , so I want to make sure I do my part .
I ’ ve been voting since I was 18 .
The process for overseas voting is quite simple .
Here in South Africa , we have had several meetings on Zoom and other virtual conferences to help people receive their absentee ballots .
You fill out the forms from FVAP.gov , print them out , and send them to your local @ @ @ @ @ @ @ will receive your ballot .
The local embassy and consulate here will be mailing ballots back to the states , so it ’ s a pretty straightforward process .
The process is fairly smooth .
I am in the local voting WhatsApp groups , where they have people on hand to help us daily .
I feel like the votes will get there on time now that our borders opened up on October 1 , although I am more concerned about people in the states not voting .
We all need to pull @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
“ Right now our borders are still closed , so I am hoping everything gets in on time ” Dianne Davidson , 59 , nurse , currently lives in Trinidad and Tobago ( voting residence : New Jersey ) Although I am not currently living there , I still have ties to the US .
I have spent almost half my life living there .
I still have my house , some of my family , and close friends there .
I keep up with all the news , so I am @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , too .
I think it is important to vote in this election , especially seeing the toll the pandemic has had .
Many of my friends are in fear of losing their jobs , and those on unemployment are still awaiting payments .
It has been stressful watching what ’ s happening with the riots , Black Lives Matter , and the president ’ s response to everything .
For me , voting is the only way to make my voice heard from thousands of miles away .
I know I must @ @ @ @ @ @ @ would be my first time doing so .
I used FVAP.gov , which was like a one-stop shop ; it even had a tutorial that broke down the process .
Truthfully , I was hoping I can simply vote at the US Embassy right here in Trinidad , but I found they only help with mailing after the forms are already filled out and signed .
Right now our borders are still closed , so I am hoping everything gets in on time .
“ It has been difficult to watch America descend @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 46 , elected official in local government , currently lives in Scotland ( voting residence : Florida ) I have voted in every election since I was eligible to vote .
But this election I believe not to be about blue versus red .
For me , it is about the very survival of our republic and the values of democracy that many of us hold so dear .
Nothing more important is bestowed upon us than our individual right and ability to cast our ballot to determine the future of our country @ @ @ @ @ @ @ not , we all are given this right in equal measure .
I cherish it like I ’ m protecting a candle in the wind .
It has been difficult to watch America descend into the chaos it finds itself in now .
As an American abroad , I am passionately proud of my country and want to see leadership that will restore it to its place in the world in tackling the global challenges that face us all — climate change , distribution of wealth , a fair and affordable health care @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , and a sensible solution to gun violence .
I believe in America for all of her wonderful potential to be a force for good in this world .
We have lost our way and we are down right now , but we are certainly not out .
We can come together again and fight together for what is right .
Being abroad one can opt to vote by mail or , in my state , by fax .
Voting by fax means you give up your right to a secret ballot .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ option , as I simply do not trust that the ballot would be safe on its journey to be counted .
I opt for delivery of my ballot by email .
I simply print it out , fill it in , sign it to match my signature that is held [ on file ] , and then send it back to the supervisor of elections in my home state county .
The process is a very simple and straightforward one .
I do feel confident that my ballot will be counted .
I @ @ @ @ @ @ @ our electoral counting system .
“ I literally spent the last three days taking care of this issue to be able to have my vote count in this upcoming presidential election ” Jessy Schuster , 40 , producer and TV host , currently lives in Guadeloupe ( voting residence : Florida ) I started voting as soon as I could , legally speaking .
I registered in 2008 and I have been voting ever since in all elections that I was eligible to vote in .
Although it will sound like a cliché @ @ @ @ @ @ @ democratic process that exists today .
So many women , Black people , and Native Americans fought before me to give future generations the right and the opportunity to fill out a ballot and elect our officials and presidents , so I can not stay home and not participate in this process .
2020 is a crucial year .
The list of critical issues and problems in America is growing and our leaders don ’ t seem close to finding a solution or even pretending to find one .
This year has seen @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Black Lives Matter protests and the government ’ s reaction to it , to police brutality , the environmental crisis , and the response to the Covid-19 crisis .
Fake news and lies have become the daily norms and most Americans believe everything they read on social media and hear on the news without any critical thinking , fact-checking , or accountability .
It is scary to imagine the future beyond November 3 — regardless of who will win — because America feels divided on every single issue with no sign of a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ electoral voting system is not ideal in terms of the “ every vote counts ” mantra that our country is promoting , but right now this is what we have to work with .
But voting has been confusing this year because I was under the impression I could send back my filled-out ballot by email or fax , but I have to mail it back .
I had to reach out to the election offices several times by phone to get clear directions .
It took 10 days for someone to send @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and I consider myself being an early bird .
The election office in my city told me it was only one person who was answering emails .
I wish her luck .
My husband will be voting for the first time in this election , and for him it ’ s a little more complicated because they don ’ t have his signature on file , which means that his FPCA [ Federal Post Card Application ] has to be returned by mail to the USA from France , which will take time @ @ @ @ @ @ @ back that has to be sent back again to the US .
I wish we could have a “ designated ” voter , to go in person to represent you at the voting booth , like in French elections .
You fill out a form and notarize it , and this person can vote in your name at the booth .
I do realize it can be considered risky because of fraud , but several countries do it .
I am not 100 percent confident that my ballot will make it in on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ literally spent the last three days taking care of this issue to be able to have my vote count in this upcoming presidential election .
I am mostly worried for my husband ’ s ballot because the back-and-forth mailing in the time of Covid-19 between the USA and France might not work within the legal time frame allowed .
Tiffanie Drayton is a freelance writer .
Find her on Twitter @ draytontiffanie .
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Voting from overseas is usually a fairly easy process. US citizens living abroad request an absentee ballot (by email, fax, or mail, depending on their state of residence), fill it out, and mail it to their county board of elections. But in 2020, the process feels especially fraught. As measures to mitigate the spread of Covid-19 forced the closure of some international borders, mail disruptions have thrown a wrench into the usually smooth procedure.
Then there’s President Donald Trump, who has voiced skepticism of the validity of the absentee voting process. In August, Trump announced his opposition to more funding for the US Postal Service to help it handle an expected influx of mail-in ballots amid reports of growing delays in mail delivery and the removal of dozens of mailboxes by USPS (which were suspended due to the uproar).
The result has been an erosion of confidence in an election that will lean heavily on mailed ballots: In an August NBC/SurveyMonkey poll, 55 percent of American adults said they were either “not too confident” or “not at all confident” about the fairness of the election.
But many expats have already begun the process of voting, having decided not to allow such hurdles to hinder them from exercising their constitutional right. Per the most recent Overseas Citizen Population Analysis report, 2.9 million eligible American voters live overseas; in 2016, Democrats Abroad called them a “very blue voting bloc.”
For Black Americans living abroad in particular, this election feels crucially important to making their voices heard.
If you’re living abroad as an American, voting residence is necessary to vote by absentee ballot in US elections. Your election office needs your exact voting residence address to determine which offices and candidates you are eligible to vote for — even if you’re voting for federal offices only. Your voting residence is your address in the state in which you last resided immediately prior to leaving the US. From there, go to the Federal Voting Assistance Program website, complete the Federal Post Card Application, and return it to your election office. (Some states accept the form by email; see your state’s rules in the FVAP’s Voting Assistance Guide.) Once you receive your ballot, fill it out, sign it, and mail it back to your local election office. Follow the instructions sent with your ballot if you’re unsure. If there isn’t enough time to receive and send back your ballot before the election, use the Federal Write-in Absentee Ballot as a backup. (If your official absentee ballot arrives after sending in the FWAB, fill out and send in the official ballot too. Only one will be counted.) Deadlines for requesting and sending ballots differ by state. All state deadlines can be viewed here. Information provided by the Federal Voting Assistance Program.
“It is imperative that I vote — my ancestors fought too long and died in the process for me to be able to,” said Kenna Williams, who lives in South Africa but has voting residence in California. “This year’s election is probably the most crucial election I have ever experienced, so I want to make sure I do my part.”
Vox talked to six Americans about their experiences casting ballots from abroad and the potential impact of their vote during an extraordinary time in American history. The interviews have been lightly edited for length and clarity.
“I can’t sit this one out”
Miles White, 65, retired university professor, currently lives in Hungary (voting residence: Washington state)
I’m voting as a Washington resident because I went to grad school there. Ironically, I’m from Selma, Alabama, originally, a pivotal place in the history of US voting rights — although as far as I know, my parents never voted, even when it was legal to do it after the Voting Rights Act passed in 1965. I think they were still afraid. They never even talked to me about whether I should vote or not. That’s how afraid I think they were.
I think I cast my first national vote for Jimmy Carter when he was running for reelection against Ronald Reagan, and I’ve voted in every presidential election since then until I left the country 13 years ago. I haven’t voted since I’ve been overseas, for one reason or the other. But I’ll be honest with you: I think the country is on a path to authoritarian fascism that’s very real and very dangerous under this president. The president of the United States is unfit to serve and needs to be removed from office. That’s really it. I can’t sit this one out!
A friend sent me a link to the Federal Voting Assistance Program website where I could order the ballot so I didn’t have to go looking around for it. I filled out an online form and got an electronic ballot from King County in Washington state for the state and local elections. I was supposed to mark the ballot, print it, and mail it, but I skipped those questions. I have no idea who anybody is in state and local politics anymore. I left the US more than a decade ago, so I only know people at the national level because I still read American newspapers.
I’m waiting for the national ballot but I haven’t gotten it yet, so I’m wondering if they’re going to send it to me in time to get it mailed back. But if I get it in October, I’ll turn it around as quickly as I can.
“Although I am happy to not have to personally experience it, I do have friends still in America”
Stefan Coretti, 32, recent MBA graduate, currently lives in Paris (voting residence: New Jersey)
Watching America from abroad is like watching American Horror Story on FX. With greater video evidence of injustices across America, and now the death of Ruth Bader Ginsburg, America under Trump could mean the erosion of anything that protects middle- and lower-income citizens and the reversal of rights recently given to marginalized communities.
Although I am happy to not have to personally experience it, I do have friends still in America. And the fact is we are in a global economy and the world is tied together. My hope is to get a Democrat in office so some balance can then be applied to the equation.
I have voted from abroad before, but this year I’m in a different country. The process itself is not confusing, but I believe it should be a lot simpler for those already registered.
I have no concerns that my vote will be on time to be counted, but seeing that I’m not in a swing state, my personal vote may not have a large impact. My major concern is if Trump loses, he may try to make an amendment to give himself more years in office.
“We all need to pull our weight no matter where we are”
Kenna Williams, 43, businesswoman, currently lives in South Africa (voting residence: California)
It is imperative that I vote — my ancestors fought too long and died in the process for me to be able to. My parents were regular election poll workers and I grew up in a household where voting was a priority. This year’s election is probably the most crucial election I have ever experienced, so I want to make sure I do my part. I’ve been voting since I was 18.
The process for overseas voting is quite simple. Here in South Africa, we have had several meetings on Zoom and other virtual conferences to help people receive their absentee ballots. You fill out the forms from FVAP.gov, print them out, and send them to your local election office. After that, you will receive your ballot. The local embassy and consulate here will be mailing ballots back to the states, so it’s a pretty straightforward process. The process is fairly smooth.
I am in the local voting WhatsApp groups, where they have people on hand to help us daily. I feel like the votes will get there on time now that our borders opened up on October 1, although I am more concerned about people in the states not voting. We all need to pull our weight no matter where we are.
“Right now our borders are still closed, so I am hoping everything gets in on time”
Dianne Davidson, 59, nurse, currently lives in Trinidad and Tobago (voting residence: New Jersey)
Although I am not currently living there, I still have ties to the US. I have spent almost half my life living there. I still have my house, some of my family, and close friends there. I keep up with all the news, so I am keeping up with state and local elections, too.
I think it is important to vote in this election, especially seeing the toll the pandemic has had. Many of my friends are in fear of losing their jobs, and those on unemployment are still awaiting payments. It has been stressful watching what’s happening with the riots, Black Lives Matter, and the president’s response to everything. For me, voting is the only way to make my voice heard from thousands of miles away.
I know I must cast an absentee ballot, but this would be my first time doing so. I used FVAP.gov, which was like a one-stop shop; it even had a tutorial that broke down the process. Truthfully, I was hoping I can simply vote at the US Embassy right here in Trinidad, but I found they only help with mailing after the forms are already filled out and signed. Right now our borders are still closed, so I am hoping everything gets in on time.
“It has been difficult to watch America descend into the chaos”
David Macdonald, 46, elected official in local government, currently lives in Scotland (voting residence: Florida)
I have voted in every election since I was eligible to vote. But this election I believe not to be about blue versus red. For me, it is about the very survival of our republic and the values of democracy that many of us hold so dear. Nothing more important is bestowed upon us than our individual right and ability to cast our ballot to determine the future of our country. Rich or poor, educated or not, we all are given this right in equal measure. I cherish it like I’m protecting a candle in the wind.
It has been difficult to watch America descend into the chaos it finds itself in now. As an American abroad, I am passionately proud of my country and want to see leadership that will restore it to its place in the world in tackling the global challenges that face us all — climate change, distribution of wealth, a fair and affordable health care system, the eradication of institutionalized racism, and a sensible solution to gun violence. I believe in America for all of her wonderful potential to be a force for good in this world. We have lost our way and we are down right now, but we are certainly not out. We can come together again and fight together for what is right.
Being abroad one can opt to vote by mail or, in my state, by fax. Voting by fax means you give up your right to a secret ballot. I personally don’t use that option, as I simply do not trust that the ballot would be safe on its journey to be counted. I opt for delivery of my ballot by email. I simply print it out, fill it in, sign it to match my signature that is held [on file], and then send it back to the supervisor of elections in my home state county. The process is a very simple and straightforward one.
I do feel confident that my ballot will be counted. I have complete faith in the integrity of our electoral counting system.
“I literally spent the last three days taking care of this issue to be able to have my vote count in this upcoming presidential election”
Jessy Schuster, 40, producer and TV host, currently lives in Guadeloupe (voting residence: Florida)
I started voting as soon as I could, legally speaking. I registered in 2008 and I have been voting ever since in all elections that I was eligible to vote in.
Although it will sound like a cliché, to me voting is the most democratic process that exists today. So many women, Black people, and Native Americans fought before me to give future generations the right and the opportunity to fill out a ballot and elect our officials and presidents, so I cannot stay home and not participate in this process.
2020 is a crucial year. The list of critical issues and problems in America is growing and our leaders don’t seem close to finding a solution or even pretending to find one. This year has seen so many turning points, from the Black Lives Matter protests and the government’s reaction to it, to police brutality, the environmental crisis, and the response to the Covid-19 crisis. Fake news and lies have become the daily norms and most Americans believe everything they read on social media and hear on the news without any critical thinking, fact-checking, or accountability. It is scary to imagine the future beyond November 3 — regardless of who will win — because America feels divided on every single issue with no sign of a peaceful solution.
That said, the electoral voting system is not ideal in terms of the “every vote counts” mantra that our country is promoting, but right now this is what we have to work with. But voting has been confusing this year because I was under the impression I could send back my filled-out ballot by email or fax, but I have to mail it back. I had to reach out to the election offices several times by phone to get clear directions. It took 10 days for someone to send me back my ballot by email, and I consider myself being an early bird. The election office in my city told me it was only one person who was answering emails. I wish her luck.
My husband will be voting for the first time in this election, and for him it’s a little more complicated because they don’t have his signature on file, which means that his FPCA [Federal Post Card Application] has to be returned by mail to the USA from France, which will take time. Then he will receive a ballot back that has to be sent back again to the US. I wish we could have a “designated” voter, to go in person to represent you at the voting booth, like in French elections. You fill out a form and notarize it, and this person can vote in your name at the booth. I do realize it can be considered risky because of fraud, but several countries do it.
I am not 100 percent confident that my ballot will make it in on time, to be honest. I literally spent the last three days taking care of this issue to be able to have my vote count in this upcoming presidential election. I am mostly worried for my husband’s ballot because the back-and-forth mailing in the time of Covid-19 between the USA and France might not work within the legal time frame allowed.
Tiffanie Drayton is a freelance writer. Find her on Twitter @draytontiffanie.
Nikisia Drayton is a writer and counselor
ntribute today from as little as $3.


vox--2020-10-09--Fareed Zakaria on how Biden and Trump see the world

Fareed Zakaria is the host of CNN ’ s Fareed Zakaria GPS , a columnist for the Washington Post , and one of the most astute foreign policy thinkers of our time .
So much of this conversation on The Ezra Klein Show is focused on just that — how Joe Biden and Donald Trump see the world and how they want to shape it .
In particular , how does Biden ’ s foreign policy differ from Obama ’ s , and how has it changed over the years ?
Does Trump have a coherent foreign policy at all @ @ @ @ @ @ @ an acceptable level of influence for China to have ?
” the most important US foreign policy question ?
But I also wanted to talk to Zakaria about some broader trends , ones he ’ s been tracking for some time .
His book The Future of Freedom , originally published in 2003 , anticipated the rise of illiberal democracies across the globe long before anyone paid it much attention .
His 2008 book The Post-American World described the multipolar international order that , in many ways , we now inhabit .
And @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a Post-Pandemic World , which forecasts how Covid-19 will change the trajectory of our world .
So in this conversation , we also discuss the state of journalism , the dangers of war between great power countries in the 21st century , why Zakaria believes China ’ s rise is far less of a threat than either Republicans or Democrats seem to believe , why a global spike of economic inequality in an already unequal world is perhaps the most important pandemic trend , whether Zakaria has lost faith in America , whether @ @ @ @ @ @ @ concentrations of wealth , how the world ’ s views of China and America are changing , and much more .
A lightly edited excerpt from our conversation follows .
The full conversation can be heard on The Ezra Klein Show .
Subscribe to The Ezra Klein Show wherever you listen to podcasts , including Apple Podcasts , Google Podcasts , Spotify , and Stitcher .
What do you think Joe Biden ’ s foreign policy is ?
How would you describe it ?
I think Biden very much stands within the long @ @ @ @ @ @ @ believes deeply in the idea that America should be engaged with the world — that the American project of Franklin Roosevelt and Truman was a noble project that has made for a better world and that America benefits from enormously .
I think he ’ s kind of a liberal international idealist in that sense .
I think the first acts of Biden ’ s foreign policy will be to reach out to the allies .
There is a peculiarity to Trump ’ s worldview , which is that he has really turned @ @ @ @ @ @ @ closest allies .
The odd thing about Donald Trump is he sort of hates the world and hates foreigners , but he really hates those countries that have been allied to the United States for 70 years and whose soldiers have fought and died in American-led wars for 70 years : Germany , France , Britain , Canada .
And the ones he likes are Putin ’ s Russia and Erdogan ’ s Turkey and , to a certain extent , Modi ’ s India .
It ’ s a very peculiar ordering @ @ @ @ @ @ @ rightsize those relationships and move to embrace the Germanys , the Chinas , the Japans , the South Koreas of the world .
At some level , Biden will be an effort at restoration .
I am myself critical of that because I think that you can ’ t just go back to some imagined stability .
The world has changed .
We really have entered a very different age — a bipolar world .
And so we need more creative thinking , and to ask ourselves the question : What does it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ where others want power and influence ?
Is there a way to create a more stable , more multilateral world ?
Because the old world where America just dominated and set the agenda and paid the better price— that ’ s not going to happen .
The American people are not willing to do it , and the rest of the world is now not willing to do it .
So that ’ s the place where I don ’ t know the degree to which Biden would be willing to creatively rethink @ @ @ @ @ @ @ creature of that older order and that older world , which had as its center a United States that was head and shoulders above everybody else — and also an American public that was willing to essentially subcontract foreign policy to a small group of elites in Washington and to pay these enormous prices .
None of that is true anymore .
When I think back on Biden ’ s foreign policy , he ’ s certainly been a member of the liberal or center-left mainstream : a reasonably ambitious liberal interventionist .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ pushing Clinton towards intervening in the massacres in Bosnia .
His legacy on Iraq is a little bit more complicated , but nevertheless , he ended up voting for the resolution and then had this very weird idea for partitioning Iraq , which was an extraordinarily ambitious in its idea of what America could do .
But then , when I look at his role in internal Obama administration debates , he was a person arguing against a further commitment in Afghanistan .
He was potentially the person arguing against doing the more @ @ @ @ @ @ @ where you actually went in with individual troops as opposed to simply flattening the compound from the air .
People talk a lot about how Biden has lost a step rhetorically , and I think that ’ s true .
There ’ s no doubt that he ’ s aged .
But there ’ s also a way in which he often seems to me to have softened a little bit in old age .
He ’ s a little bit less ambitious for some of these things , a little bit less @ @ @ @ @ @ @ prove true , but it ’ s my impression .
You know him better than I do , and you ’ ve covered him longer .
So I ’ m curious what your impression is on how or whether he ’ s changed .
I think you ’ ve read him very well ; that ’ s entirely the way I would I would describe it .
I think he tried to learn from the Iraq experience — he was against Libya , for example .
I think that he is somebody who @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to America ’ s engagement with the world .
And I like that about him .
In a way , this is a good election because you really have , in terms of personalities and values , two very different people .
Biden is a warm , open-hearted , broad-minded , idealistic guy who has tried to trust his political adversaries , tried to believe in America ’ s role in the world .
And when he ’ s made mistakes , they have been mistakes made in that effort to go along @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on the other side of the aisle , to find ways to make a compromise , to open himself up to the world .
I tend to think that that ’ s in many ways the best of America ’ s political tradition .
To what extent does some of these modulations that you point out signal that he sees the new world and knows how to adjust to it ?
I don ’ t know the answer to that , but I do know he has a good eye for talent .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ even in his Senate days , were very bright .
And that itself is a good sign .
How do you think he differs from Obama in his foreign policy instincts ?
I think Obama was more creative and supple in terms of the way he saw the world .
He saw this emerging world that we ’ ve talked about , and he knew that America had to adjust to it .
I think Obama ’ s problems were never the intellectual understanding of the world .
He had a somewhat Hamlet-like @ @ @ @ @ @ @ But that left you without clarity as to exactly how you were acting , where you wanted to go .
He was , in some ways , a good example of what can happen to an intellectual in politics , where you can have too sophisticated an understanding of what ’ s happening .
I remember once talking to Jim Baker [ who served as secretary of state and chief of staff under President George H.W .
Bush ] about this .
On the front page of the New York Times was that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ concession or the other .
And Baker said , “ You know what ?
I can never understand this guy .
He ’ s so smart .
So he sees where the point of compromise should be .
And he says , ‘ Can we just dispense with this whole silly negotiation ?
Why don ’ t I tell you where I think is a reasonable middle point ?
And would you agree with me ?
’ And he says he doesn ’ t get human nature .
The Republicans want to claw @ @ @ @ @ @ @ want to get there with , you know , with blood and tears .
And he just looks at it from on high , analyzes it , and says , ‘ You know , I ’ m smart enough to figure out this is where we should all end up.
’ ” I ’ ve always felt that was a very interesting and wise way of looking at the difference between this kind of hard-boiled political world and Obama as an intellectual .
Something that is distinctive about Biden compared to Obama and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ world through relationships .
He ’ s somebody who talks about grand foreign policy ideas but when you really listen to him , he will always say he knows the first name of every world leader and they know his , and they ’ ve talked , and he ’ s known them for 20 years and sent their kids a gift and so on .
How much do you think that matters versus how much do you think that can also be a way of misunderstanding the world ?
Because personal relationships @ @ @ @ @ @ @ often be misleading , like George W. Bush saying he saw into Vladimir Putin ’ s soul and he ’ s a man of peace .
I think it ’ s actually a danger .
The important thing is to not let it affect your conceptual understanding of the world .
This is not a personality contest .
Countries have deep interests .
They act out of those interests .
Understanding that process is very important — it ’ s actually at the heart of international affairs .
In the 1930s , most @ @ @ @ @ @ @ him .
Most of the people who didn ’ t meet Hitler — who were simply watching what Germany was doing under Hitler — ended up having a much tougher stance against him , Chamberlain most famously .
There were many Western-spaded statesmen who talked to Hitler and either thought he was not particularly impressive or thought he was reasonable .
There ’ s a great danger of that .
My worry , by the way , with Biden is that he thinks he knows Xi Jinping very well .
And my experience @ @ @ @ @ @ @ I obviously don ’ t have anything near his experiences — is it ’ s all an act .
This is a closed political system .
People act very carefully .
These things are all very choreographed .
The idea that you actually know these people and have personal relationships with them is a very dangerous one — because you don ’ t .
And I think it ’ s much more important to look at what they do than what they say .
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Fareed Zakaria is the host of CNN’s Fareed Zakaria GPS, a columnist for the Washington Post, and one of the most astute foreign policy thinkers of our time. So much of this conversation on The Ezra Klein Show is focused on just that — how Joe Biden and Donald Trump see the world and how they want to shape it. In particular, how does Biden’s foreign policy differ from Obama’s, and how has it changed over the years? Does Trump have a coherent foreign policy at all? And why is “What is an acceptable level of influence for China to have?” the most important US foreign policy question?
But I also wanted to talk to Zakaria about some broader trends, ones he’s been tracking for some time. His book The Future of Freedom, originally published in 2003, anticipated the rise of illiberal democracies across the globe long before anyone paid it much attention. His 2008 book The Post-American World described the multipolar international order that, in many ways, we now inhabit. And just recently he authored Ten Lessons for a Post-Pandemic World, which forecasts how Covid-19 will change the trajectory of our world.
So in this conversation, we also discuss the state of journalism, the dangers of war between great power countries in the 21st century, why Zakaria believes China’s rise is far less of a threat than either Republicans or Democrats seem to believe, why a global spike of economic inequality in an already unequal world is perhaps the most important pandemic trend, whether Zakaria has lost faith in America, whether anything short of violent catastrophe can upend concentrations of wealth, how the world’s views of China and America are changing, and much more.
A lightly edited excerpt from our conversation follows. The full conversation can be heard on The Ezra Klein Show.
Subscribe to The Ezra Klein Show wherever you listen to podcasts, including Apple Podcasts, Google Podcasts, Spotify, and Stitcher.
Ezra Klein
What do you think Joe Biden’s foreign policy is? How would you describe it?
Fareed Zakaria
I think Biden very much stands within the long tradition of American foreign policy. He believes deeply in the idea that America should be engaged with the world — that the American project of Franklin Roosevelt and Truman was a noble project that has made for a better world and that America benefits from enormously. I think he’s kind of a liberal international idealist in that sense.
I think the first acts of Biden’s foreign policy will be to reach out to the allies. There is a peculiarity to Trump’s worldview, which is that he has really turned his wrath mostly on America’s closest allies. The odd thing about Donald Trump is he sort of hates the world and hates foreigners, but he really hates those countries that have been allied to the United States for 70 years and whose soldiers have fought and died in American-led wars for 70 years: Germany, France, Britain, Canada. And the ones he likes are Putin’s Russia and Erdogan’s Turkey and, to a certain extent, Modi’s India. It’s a very peculiar ordering, and I think Biden would probably rightsize those relationships and move to embrace the Germanys, the Chinas, the Japans, the South Koreas of the world.
At some level, Biden will be an effort at restoration. I am myself critical of that because I think that you can’t just go back to some imagined stability. The world has changed. We really have entered a very different age — a bipolar world. And so we need more creative thinking, and to ask ourselves the question: What does it look like to be in a world where others want power and influence? Is there a way to create a more stable, more multilateral world? Because the old world where America just dominated and set the agenda and paid the better price— that’s not going to happen. The American people are not willing to do it, and the rest of the world is now not willing to do it.
So that’s the place where I don’t know the degree to which Biden would be willing to creatively rethink it, because he is himself a creature of that older order and that older world, which had as its center a United States that was head and shoulders above everybody else — and also an American public that was willing to essentially subcontract foreign policy to a small group of elites in Washington and to pay these enormous prices. None of that is true anymore.
Ezra Klein
When I think back on Biden’s foreign policy, he’s certainly been a member of the liberal or center-left mainstream: a reasonably ambitious liberal interventionist. His memoirs talk about his pride in pushing Clinton towards intervening in the massacres in Bosnia. His legacy on Iraq is a little bit more complicated, but nevertheless, he ended up voting for the resolution and then had this very weird idea for partitioning Iraq, which was an extraordinarily ambitious in its idea of what America could do.
But then, when I look at his role in internal Obama administration debates, he was a person arguing against a further commitment in Afghanistan. He was potentially the person arguing against doing the more dangerous raid on Osama bin Laden, where you actually went in with individual troops as opposed to simply flattening the compound from the air. People talk a lot about how Biden has lost a step rhetorically, and I think that’s true. There’s no doubt that he’s aged. But there’s also a way in which he often seems to me to have softened a little bit in old age. He’s a little bit less ambitious for some of these things, a little bit less bullheaded. That may or may not prove true, but it’s my impression.
You know him better than I do, and you’ve covered him longer. So I’m curious what your impression is on how or whether he’s changed.
Fareed Zakaria
I think you’ve read him very well; that’s entirely the way I would I would describe it. I think he tried to learn from the Iraq experience — he was against Libya, for example. I think that he is somebody who is still, however, very committed to America’s engagement with the world. And I like that about him.
In a way, this is a good election because you really have, in terms of personalities and values, two very different people. Biden is a warm, open-hearted, broad-minded, idealistic guy who has tried to trust his political adversaries, tried to believe in America’s role in the world. And when he’s made mistakes, they have been mistakes made in that effort to go along, to cut a deal with people on the other side of the aisle, to find ways to make a compromise, to open himself up to the world. I tend to think that that’s in many ways the best of America’s political tradition.
To what extent does some of these modulations that you point out signal that he sees the new world and knows how to adjust to it? I don’t know the answer to that, but I do know he has a good eye for talent. The people he surrounds himself with, even in his Senate days, were very bright. And that itself is a good sign.
Ezra Klein
How do you think he differs from Obama in his foreign policy instincts?
Fareed Zakaria
I think Obama was more creative and supple in terms of the way he saw the world. He saw this emerging world that we’ve talked about, and he knew that America had to adjust to it. I think Obama’s problems were never the intellectual understanding of the world.
He had a somewhat Hamlet-like ability to analyze the problem exquisitely. But that left you without clarity as to exactly how you were acting, where you wanted to go. He was, in some ways, a good example of what can happen to an intellectual in politics, where you can have too sophisticated an understanding of what’s happening.
I remember once talking to Jim Baker [who served as secretary of state and chief of staff under President George H.W. Bush] about this. On the front page of the New York Times was that Obama had offered the Senate Republicans some concession or the other. And Baker said, “You know what? I can never understand this guy. He’s so smart. So he sees where the point of compromise should be. And he says, ‘Can we just dispense with this whole silly negotiation? Why don’t I tell you where I think is a reasonable middle point? And would you agree with me?’ And he says he doesn’t get human nature. The Republicans want to claw that compromise out of him. They want to get there with, you know, with blood and tears. And he just looks at it from on high, analyzes it, and says, ‘You know, I’m smart enough to figure out this is where we should all end up.’”
I’ve always felt that was a very interesting and wise way of looking at the difference between this kind of hard-boiled political world and Obama as an intellectual.
Ezra Klein
Something that is distinctive about Biden compared to Obama and Trump is how much he sees the world through relationships. He’s somebody who talks about grand foreign policy ideas but when you really listen to him, he will always say he knows the first name of every world leader and they know his, and they’ve talked, and he’s known them for 20 years and sent their kids a gift and so on.
How much do you think that matters versus how much do you think that can also be a way of misunderstanding the world? Because personal relationships and how people are with you can often be misleading, like George W. Bush saying he saw into Vladimir Putin’s soul and he’s a man of peace.
Fareed Zakaria
I think it’s actually a danger. The important thing is to not let it affect your conceptual understanding of the world. This is not a personality contest. Countries have deep interests. They act out of those interests. Understanding that process is very important — it’s actually at the heart of international affairs.
In the 1930s, most of the people who met Hitler misread him. Most of the people who didn’t meet Hitler — who were simply watching what Germany was doing under Hitler — ended up having a much tougher stance against him, Chamberlain most famously. There were many Western-spaded statesmen who talked to Hitler and either thought he was not particularly impressive or thought he was reasonable. There’s a great danger of that.
My worry, by the way, with Biden is that he thinks he knows Xi Jinping very well. And my experience of dealing with Chinese leaders — although I obviously don’t have anything near his experiences — is it’s all an act. This is a closed political system. People act very carefully. These things are all very choreographed. The idea that you actually know these people and have personal relationships with them is a very dangerous one — because you don’t. And I think it’s much more important to look at what they do than what they say.
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