The worst idea of 2020

It ’ s year-end-list season .
Usually , the Vox science team has some fun and compiles a year-end list of bad ideas in health and science that ought to die with the end of the year .
In the past , we ’ ve targeted homeopathic medicine , declared it was time to end the relevance of the fatally flawed Stanford Prison Experiment , and dispelled myths about climate change .
This year , though , we have only one target for intellectual demolition .
With the end of 2020 , let ’ s leave behind the idea of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ as a means of combating the Covid-19 pandemic .
That ’ s a lot of words to describe a simple , terrible idea : that we could end the pandemic sooner if more people — particularly young , less-at-risk people — get infected with the coronavirus and develop immunity as a result .
As a response to a pandemic , the idea is unprecedented .
“ Never in the history of public health has herd immunity been used as a strategy for responding to an outbreak , let alone a pandemic , ” @ @ @ @ @ @ @ said in October .
“ It is scientifically and ethically problematic.
” And yet it held sway — at the White House , in particular .
Former White House adviser Scott Atlas ( who is a neuroradiologist , not an epidemiologist ) was particularly vocal about pursuing more infections .
“ When younger , healthier people get infected , that ’ s a good thing , ” Atlas said in a July interview with San Diego news station KUSI-TV .
“ The goal is not to eliminate all cases .
That ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ necessary if we just protect the people who are going to have serious complications.
” Let ’ s be clear , it ’ s not a “ good thing ” when young people get sick .
For one , some of these young people may die , more may get severely ill , and a not-yet-understood proportion of them could suffer long-term consequences .
The more people infected , the more chances for rare , horrible things to happen , like a 4-month-old developing brain swelling after testing positive for Covid-19 .
For @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to keep infections to only young or lower-risk people is a foolhardy game to play .
Why building up herd immunity through natural infections is a bad idea There ’ s an almost-understandable case for why some people would push for a herd immunity strategy .
We are isolated from those we care about , businesses are hurting , education has suffered , and so has our mental health .
What if we could just get back to some parts of normal life and contain the risks to those who are least likely @ @ @ @ @ @ @ proved reckless .
Sweden , a country that pursued a more permissive strategy when it came to social distancing , has the highest Covid-19 death rate in Europe .
And look at what happened in Manaus , Brazil : The city of around 2 million people experienced one of the most severe , unchecked Covid-19 outbreaks in the world .
Researchers now estimate that between 44 and 66 percent of the city ’ s population was infected with the virus , which means it ’ s possible herd immunity has been achieved there @ @ @ @ @ @ @ at 76 percent ) .
But during its epidemic period , there were four times as many deaths as normal in Manaus for that point in the year .
More typically , the term “ herd immunity ” is referred to in the context of vaccination campaigns against contagious viruses such as measles .
The concept helps public health officials think through the math of how many people in a population need to be vaccinated to prevent outbreaks .
It ’ s not meant to be applied to control a pandemic through natural @ @ @ @ @ @ @ : • Even if we could limit exposure to the people least likely to die of Covid-19 , this group still can suffer immense consequences from the infection — such as hospitalization , long-term symptoms , organ damage , missed work , high medical bills , and yes , death .
• Herd immunity is a very high bar to reach from natural infections .
There ’ s no single , perfect estimate of what percentage of the US population has already been infected by the virus .
But by all accounts , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ needed for herd immunity to kick in .
The CDC now estimates that there have been 91 million SARS-CoV-2 infections in the US — around 27 percent of the population ( though this may be an overestimate ) .
It would take around 60 percent of the population to achieve herd immunity .
That ’ s a rough guess ; it could be higher .
So , we ’ re about halfway there .
Who wants to double the destruction already caused by this virus ?
In the US , more than 330,000 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ herd immunity doesn ’ t work on a nationwide basis but a community-by-community basis .
In other words , some communities are still much more vulnerable than others . )
• Scientists don ’ t know how long naturally acquired immunity to the virus lasts , or how common reinfections might be .
If immunity wanes and the reinfection rate is high , it will be all the more difficult to build up herd immunity .
• By letting the pandemic rage , we risk overshooting the herd immunity threshold .
Once you @ @ @ @ @ @ @ doesn ’ t mean the pandemic is over .
“ All it means is that , on average , each infection causes less than one ongoing infection , ” Harvard epidemiologist Bill Hanage told me .
“ That ’ s of limited use if you ’ ve already got a million people infected.
” If each infection causes an average of 0.8 new infections , the epidemic will slow .
But 0.8 isn ’ t zero .
If a million people are infected at the time herd immunity is reached , per Hanage @ @ @ @ @ @ @ may infect 800,000 more .
• A herd immunity strategy is likely to harm some groups more than others .
There are multiple reasons why someone could experience a severe case of Covid-19 .
It ’ s not just age — conditions such as diabetes and hypertension also exacerbate risk .
So do societal factors including poverty , working conditions , and incarceration .
In the US , severe Covid-19 deaths have disproportionately impacted minorities and less-advantaged populations .
Encouraging herd immunity through coronavirus infections risks further isolating these already-marginalized communities from society @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in a more relaxed environment .
Or , even worse , we risk sacrificing their health in the name of reaching a level of population immunity sufficient to control the virus .
Soon , herd immunity will be a good thing — because of vaccines Thankfully , we now have a means of building up herd immunity without the risks conferred by infections : vaccines .
Unlike the immunity conferred by an actual viral infection , immunity obtained via vaccine doesn ’ t come with the cost of sickness and death .
Vaccines @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ t turn the pandemic around overnight , they will help end it .
We still have to do some difficult waiting .
Vaccine rollouts will be slow .
Throughout 2020 , “ herd immunity ” was used as a shorthand stand-in for “ let the pandemic spread.
” There was also persistent and erroneous wishful thinking by some who said herd immunity had already been reached , or could be reached sooner than scientists say , or could be reached without incurring horrible losses .
Yes , the economic restrictions of the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ painful .
But also true : the government could have done more to help .
Soon , herd immunity will become a good-news phrase as we build toward it collectively — and safely — through vaccines .
As the vaccines get distributed , herd immunity will develop in a controlled , ethical manner .
The pandemic will wane .
And as it does , let ’ s not forget : The calls to build up herd immunity through infections were a terrible , terrible idea .
Let ’ s not repeat them in @ @ @

It’s year-end-list season. Usually, the Vox science team has some fun and compiles a year-end list of bad ideas in health and science that ought to die with the end of the year. In the past, we’ve targeted homeopathic medicine, declared it was time to end the relevance of the fatally flawed Stanford Prison Experiment, and dispelled myths about climate change. This year, though, we have only one target for intellectual demolition.
With the end of 2020, let’s leave behind the idea of using herd immunity acquired through natural infections as a means of combating the Covid-19 pandemic. That’s a lot of words to describe a simple, terrible idea: that we could end the pandemic sooner if more people — particularly young, less at-risk people — get infected with the coronavirus and develop immunity as a result.
As a response to a pandemic, the idea is unprecedented. “Never in the history of public health has herd immunity been used as a strategy for responding to an outbreak, let alone a pandemic,” World Health Organization Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said in October. “It is scientifically and ethically problematic.”
And yet it held sway — at the White House, in particular.
Former White House adviser Scott Atlas (who is a neuroradiologist, not an epidemiologist) was particularly vocal about pursuing more infections. “When younger, healthier people get infected, that’s a good thing,” Atlas said in a July interview with the San Diego news station KUSI-TV. “The goal is not to eliminate all cases. That’s not rational, it’s not necessary if we just protect the people who are going to have serious complications.”
Let’s be clear: It’s not a “good thing” when young people get sick. For one, some of these young people may die, more may get severely ill, and a not-yet-understood proportion of them could suffer long-term consequences. The more people infected, the more chances for rare, horrible things to happen, like a 4-month-old developing brain swelling after testing positive for Covid-19. For that reason, among others, attempting to keep infections to only young or lower-risk people is a foolhardy game to play.
Why building up herd immunity through natural infections is a bad idea
There’s an almost-understandable case for why some people would push for a herd immunity strategy. We are isolated from those we care about, businesses are hurting, education has suffered, and so has our mental health. What if we could just get back to some parts of normal life and contain the risks to those who are least likely to get hurt?
This thinking has proved reckless. Sweden, a country that pursued a more permissive strategy when it came to social distancing, has a much higher death rate than fellow Scandinavian countries.
And look at what happened in Manaus, Brazil: The city of around 2 million people experienced one of the most severe, unchecked Covid-19 outbreaks in the world. Researchers now estimate that between 44 and 66 percent of the city’s population was infected with the virus, which means it’s possible herd immunity has been achieved there (another estimate pegged the infection rate at 76 percent). But during its epidemic period, there were four times as many deaths as normal in Manaus for that point in the year.
More typically, the term “herd immunity” is referred to in the context of vaccination campaigns against contagious viruses such as measles. The concept helps public health officials think through the math of how many people in a population need to be vaccinated to prevent outbreaks. It’s not meant to be applied to control a pandemic through natural infection. Here are five reasons why:
Even if we could limit exposure to the people least likely to die of Covid-19, this group still can suffer immense consequences from the infection — such as hospitalization, long-term symptoms, organ damage, missed work, high medical bills, and yes, death. Herd immunity is a very high bar to reach from natural infections. There’s no single, perfect estimate of what percentage of the US population has already been infected by the virus. But by all accounts, it’s nowhere near the figure needed for herd immunity to kick in. The CDC now estimates that there have been 91 million SARS-CoV-2 infections in the US — around 27 percent of the population (though this may be an overestimate). It would take around 60 percent of the population to achieve herd immunity. That’s a rough guess; it could be higher. So we’re about halfway there. Who wants to double the destruction already caused by this virus? In the US, more than 330,000 people have died. (Plus, herd immunity doesn’t work on a nationwide basis but a community-by-community basis. In other words, some communities are still much more vulnerable than others.) Scientists don’t know how long naturally acquired immunity to the virus lasts, or how common reinfections might be. If immunity wanes and the reinfection rate is high, it will be all the more difficult to build up herd immunity. By letting the pandemic rage, we risk overshooting the herd immunity threshold. Once you hit the herd immunity threshold, it doesn’t mean the pandemic is over. “All it means is that, on average, each infection causes less than one ongoing infection,” Harvard epidemiologist Bill Hanage told me. “That’s of limited use if you’ve already got a million people infected.” If each infection causes an average of 0.8 new infections, the epidemic will slow. But 0.8 isn’t zero. If a million people are infected at the time herd immunity is reached, per Hanage’s example, those already-infected people may infect 800,000 more. A herd immunity strategy is likely to harm some groups more than others. There are multiple reasons someone could experience a severe case of Covid-19. It’s not just age — conditions such as diabetes and hypertension also exacerbate risk. So do societal factors including poverty, working conditions, and incarceration.
In the US, severe Covid-19 deaths have disproportionately impacted minorities and less advantaged populations. Encouraging herd immunity through coronavirus infection risks further isolating these already marginalized communities from society, since they may not feel safe in a more relaxed environment. Or, even worse, we risk sacrificing their health in the name of reaching a level of population immunity sufficient to control the virus.
Soon, herd immunity will be a good thing — because of vaccines
Thankfully, we now have a means of building up herd immunity without the risks conferred by infections: vaccines. Unlike the immunity conferred by an actual viral infection, immunity obtained via vaccine doesn’t come with the cost of sickness and death. Vaccines are safe. And while they won’t turn the pandemic around overnight, they will help end it.
We still have to do some difficult waiting. Vaccine rollouts will be slow. Throughout 2020, “herd immunity” was used as a stand-in for “let the pandemic spread.” There was also persistent and erroneous wishful thinking by some who said herd immunity had already been reached, or could be reached sooner than scientists say, or without incurring horrible losses. Yes, the economic restrictions of the pandemic were, and still are, painful. But it’s also true the government could have done more to help.
Soon, herd immunity will become a good-news phrase as we build toward it collectively — and safely — through vaccines. As the vaccines get distributed, herd immunity will develop in a controlled, ethical manner. The pandemic will wane.
And as it does, let’s not forget: The calls to build up herd immunity through infections were a terrible idea. Let’s not repeat them in the future.
Correction: An earlier version of this article misstated the Covid-19 death rate in Sweden compared to other European countries.


vox--2020-12-30--The Lost Year: A year in the life of a mail carrier (The year is 2020)

This is The Lost Year , a series of stories about our lived experiences in 2020 , as told to Vox critic at large Emily VanDerWerff .
Natalie is a rural mail carrier in Nevada , and the United States Postal Service has had one hell of a year .
When I set up our interview for this series , I was particularly interested to hear how she was handling the increased focus on the USPS in 2020 as Postmaster General Louis DeJoy made changes that drastically slowed delivery times amid both a pandemic and a presidential election .
( @ @ @ @ @ @ @ changes here . )
The slowdown affected Natalie a bit — some of her customers ’ packages were delivered much later than they normally would have been — but what really affected her in 2020 , she said , were the ways in which so many people in her community hadn ’ t taken Covid-19 seriously .
She told me she felt like she was playing Russian roulette every day on her route , just wondering when she might contract the virus .
As someone who has to come in contact with other @ @ @ @ @ @ @ had the option to quarantine or stop working , Natalie ’ s perspective on the pandemic underscores just how fraught this year has been for the many essential workers who ’ ve kept the country going .
And since I ’ m from a rural area , Natalie ’ s thoughts gave me new insight into just how America got to a place where it allowed the virus to spread basically unchecked .
Here ’ s the story of Natalie ’ s 2020 , as told to me .
I ’ m a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ downtown corridor of our little town .
Most of my route is businesses , and then there are a few homes and condos .
But I ’ m not out driving on dirt roads .
From the start , it was like Covid-19 barely existed .
Even now , in the worst of it , people are acting like it ’ s not a problem and like it doesn ’ t exist .
Somebody asked me a couple months ago if I knew anybody who ’ s had Covid .
I was like @ @ @ @ @ @ @ people , because I talk to more people than the people who live in this town.
” It ’ s starting to get pretty bad around here .
[ Natalie told me this in late November . ]
I ’ ve had businesses where I deliver close without warning .
I ’ ll show up one day , and there ’ s a note on the door that says they ’ ll be back in mid-December .
The way the community has responded has been driven by the politics of Covid , and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ woman in particular had to close her medical office for a month because one of her clients gave her Covid .
She was never hospitalized , but she told me she was laid up for about three weeks .
In the post office , we didn ’ t receive any guidance or clarification from above for a really long time .
The week in March when things started shutting down and the NBA went on hiatus , I remember going into the office and asking , “ What ’ s the plan for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ be something in place , because we have to deal with things like hurricanes and floods .
There wasn ’ t .
We were without a paddle .
The first week everybody was really scared , and the news coming in was very inconsistent .
We have scanners to scan packages , and when you need a signature , you hand that scanner over to your customer .
I was like , “ So we ’ re not letting our customers touch the scanners , right ?
” And they said , “ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ I said , “ We ’ re not supposed to be sharing spaces !
We can ’ t be passing scanners back and forth.
” But there were no protocols for disinfecting them .
And about three weeks after I had all these concerns , we finally implemented a policy where if I needed a signature , I could get verbal consent to sign for the customer .
The response has been slapdash .
We get little notifications to disinfect our vehicle .
But they ’ re not providing us with disinfectant or @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The onus is put on us .
I ’ m assuming a lot of that comes from the top down .
It feels like I ’ ve never stopped playing Russian roulette because I never stopped working .
I never isolated .
I never quarantined .
I never had to go into lockdown .
I was an essential worker from the start , because obviously the mail needs to go out .
And all they gave us in those first few weeks was a letter that said it was okay for us to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ got pulled over .
People weren ’ t even taking it seriously in my post office itself .
A lot of people here don ’ t want to wear their masks , and we didn ’ t get a mandatory mask mandate in Nevada until June .
Once that was in place , there was significant pushback from the people on staff .
My postmaster , to her eternal credit , has been fantastic about it .
She will pull people off the floor if she sees them not wearing a mask .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ of the office , those masks come off and people are shouting across the floor .
It ’ s like this thing isn ’ t happening .
I keep my mask on and put my head down .
I try to keep to myself .
But it ’ s terribly frustrating .
If we don ’ t take care of each other , all it takes is for one person to come into that office who ’ s symptomatic , and the whole office gets shut down .
I don ’ t know @ @ @ @ @ @ @ occur .
I ’ ve asked , “ What would happen if we got Covid ?
” And most of us would still have to come to work .
If a workplace has an outbreak , the workplace should close .
But you can ’ t close the post office and have an entire community not get mail for two weeks .
There was a drastic decline in the volume of mail .
That has a lot to do with the fact of the entire economy being affected by this thing .
We @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Louis DeJoy got put in and started slowing the mail down over the summer , you could see that a little bit .
I had customers ask , “ Are we getting all of our mail every day ?
” And I said , “ Every piece of mail that I get , I deliver to you.
” When the stories started coming out about the machinery in the distribution centers getting literally dismantled for supposed cost-saving measures , I couldn ’ t understand .
It takes away the most efficient tool in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ not be processed without those machines .
No human can do 10,000 pieces of mail in a minute .
The thing about the mail is , it ’ s not like you can just get rid of it .
It still needs to get delivered .
Every piece of mail you don ’ t deliver today is a piece of mail you have to deliver tomorrow .
I would look at those full tubs stacked up in cases [ in the photos posted to social media ] and say , “ That ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ right there.
” But frankly , it could have been a lot worse .
I ’ m lucky that we have whistleblowers and that people paid attention .
Even out here in a conservative area , everyone that I come in contact with has been pretty supportive .
I don ’ t think that people were like , “ I support the president , and that means I support his postmaster general.
” For the most part , people were like , “ We want our mail .
We want our prescriptions to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to show up.
” My customers would see the news stories and say , “ We love the post office .
We support you guys.
” It was a strange feeling , but it was a nice feeling .
People would wave at you and honk their horns that week when it was basically the main story in the news .
My customers like me , and that ’ s one of the dissonant things about it .
You can kind of tell a person ’ s politics by delivering their mail .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ aisle they ’ re on .
Maybe they get a conservative publication like the Epoch Times or something .
But when you meet them in the street , you ’ ll have a lovely conversation with them .
It ’ s one of those things about life in America these days : The politics are so poisonous and so crazy , but people are often still friendly to each other .
It ’ s like what they say : “ Congress is awful , but my congressman is great.
” Once you have @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s harder to demonize them or say , “ All of these problems are because of what you do.
” Once people form a personal relationship with something , it becomes much harder to criticize it with a blanket statement .
I am pretty much the only federal employee most of my customers see on a regular basis .
I don ’ t know if it would change people ’ s minds about the government if there were outreach from other agencies .
But once you can personalize an agency or a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ attack them and feel okay about it .
Among my coworkers , it was a different story .
I would ask some of them what they thought about the slowdown , and they would say , “ What are you talking about ?
That ’ s not happening .
It ’ s fake news .
We ’ re still getting our mail , aren ’ t we ?
” I would ask if they had customers complain to them about missing stuff , and they would say , “ Yeah , but customers @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s why I don ’ t talk about these things at work .
If you don ’ t have an actual relationship with something or the problem isn ’ t directly affecting you or someone you know , the problem may as well not be there .
I can say , “ 3,000 people died yesterday , ” and nobody at work is saying anything about it .
We ’ re all walking around like , “ Sure sucks that I have to wear a mask because the boss is here.
” It @ @ @ @ @ @ @ streak in rural Americans .
These are people who don ’ t want the government to tell them what to do .
They want to live their lives and think it ’ s ridiculous to be asked to wear a mask .
When Donald Trump tells them , “ Masks are great .
Everybody should wear masks .
But I don ’ t , ” that ’ s a big cue to people around here .
When people around here see a business is closed because there ’ s been a Covid outbreak @ @ @ @ @ @ @ say , “ Well , this sucks for me.
” When stores were closing , when Walmart closed — people were like , “ Okay , this is a big deal.
” But there seemed to be so much denialism about how big a deal it was .
A lot of it had to do with the fact that the worst parts of it , at first , were in New York .
So around here it became a Democrat disease that we didn ’ t have to worry about because none of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s never going to come here .
So why do we have to be forced to do all of these things ?
When the mask mandate was put into effect , within a couple days , half the businesses I deliver to had a sign posted on their doors that said , basically , because of the governor we have to do this .
And it ’ s not because of the governor !
It ’ s because of the virus .
And then plenty more had a sign up on their @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are mandatory , but according to HIPAA , we can not ask you if you have a condition preventing you from wearing a mask .
So if you ’ re not wearing a mask , we will assume you have some sort of condition that prevents you from wearing it.
” So you could go in there without a mask , and it ’ s perfectly fine .
That ’ s still the case .
I walk into a business to deliver mail , and nobody ’ s wearing a mask .
They @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
I don ’ t know what it would take to get people to change their behaviors in my town .
The normalization of how this has all gone down will never cease to blow my mind and upset me .
For the rest of my life , I ’ m going to wonder how we let that happen .
How did so many of my fellow Americans decide that this is just the way it is now ?
To just let people die ?
I hope I ’ m not one of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and I talked , she sent me an email saying she had contracted Covid-19 .
She is recovering . ]
Next : Exercise in quarantine , keeping a small business alive , and the unusual intimacy of Zoom

This is The Lost Year, a series of stories about our lived experiences in 2020, as told to Vox critic at large Emily VanDerWerff.
Natalie is a rural mail carrier in Nevada, and the United States Postal Service has had one hell of a year. When I set up our interview for this series, I was particularly interested to hear how she was handling the increased focus on the USPS in 2020 as Postmaster General Louis DeJoy made changes that drastically slowed delivery times amid both a pandemic and a presidential election. (You can read way more about those changes here.)
The slowdown affected Natalie a bit — some of her customers’ packages were delivered much later than they normally would have been — but what really affected her in 2020, she said, were the ways in which so many people in her community hadn’t taken Covid-19 seriously. She told me she felt like she was playing Russian roulette every day on her route, just wondering when she might contract the virus.
As someone who has to come in contact with other people on a daily basis and never had the option to quarantine or stop working, Natalie’s perspective on the pandemic underscores just how fraught this year has been for the many essential workers who’ve kept the country going. And since I’m from a rural area, Natalie’s thoughts gave me new insight into just how America got to a place where it allowed the virus to spread basically unchecked.
Here’s the story of Natalie’s 2020, as told to me.
I’m a rural carrier. I deliver to the downtown corridor of our little town. Most of my route is businesses, and then there are a few homes and condos. But I’m not out driving on dirt roads.
From the start, it was like Covid-19 barely existed. Even now, in the worst of it, people are acting like it’s not a problem and like it doesn’t exist. Somebody asked me a couple months ago if I knew anybody who’s had Covid. I was like, “Yes, I know several people, because I talk to more people than the people who live in this town.”
It’s starting to get pretty bad around here. [Natalie told me this in late November.] I’ve had businesses where I deliver close without warning. I’ll show up one day, and there’s a note on the door that says they’ll be back in mid-December. The way the community has responded has been driven by the politics of Covid, and it’s really sad. One woman in particular had to close her medical office for a month because one of her clients gave her Covid. She was never hospitalized, but she told me she was laid up for about three weeks.
In the post office, we didn’t receive any guidance or clarification from above for a really long time. The week in March when things started shutting down and the NBA went on hiatus, I remember going into the office and asking, “What’s the plan for this?” I thought there must be something in place, because we have to deal with things like hurricanes and floods.
There wasn’t. We were without a paddle. The first week everybody was really scared, and the news coming in was very inconsistent. We have scanners to scan packages, and when you need a signature, you hand that scanner over to your customer. I was like, “So we’re not letting our customers touch the scanners, right?” And they said, “No, it’s fine.” I said, “We’re not supposed to be sharing spaces! We can’t be passing scanners back and forth.” But there were no protocols for disinfecting them. And about three weeks after I had all these concerns, we finally implemented a policy where if I needed a signature, I could get verbal consent to sign for the customer.
The response has been slapdash. We get little notifications to disinfect our vehicle. But they’re not providing us with disinfectant or alcohol wipes or anything like that. The onus is put on us. I’m assuming a lot of that comes from the top down. It feels like I’ve never stopped playing Russian roulette because I never stopped working. I never isolated. I never quarantined. I never had to go into lockdown. I was an essential worker from the start, because obviously the mail needs to go out. And all they gave us in those first few weeks was a letter that said it was okay for us to be out driving, in case we got pulled over.
People weren’t even taking it seriously in my post office itself. A lot of people here don’t want to wear their masks, and we didn’t get a mandatory mask mandate in Nevada until June. Once that was in place, there was significant pushback from the people on staff. My postmaster, to her eternal credit, has been fantastic about it. She will pull people off the floor if she sees them not wearing a mask. But the minute she’s out of the office, those masks come off and people are shouting across the floor. It’s like this thing isn’t happening.
I keep my mask on and put my head down. I try to keep to myself. But it’s terribly frustrating. If we don’t take care of each other, all it takes is for one person to come into that office who’s symptomatic, and the whole office gets shut down. I don’t know what would happen if that were to occur. I’ve asked, “What would happen if we got Covid?” And most of us would still have to come to work. If a workplace has an outbreak, the workplace should close. But you can’t close the post office and have an entire community not get mail for two weeks.
There was a drastic decline in the volume of mail. That has a lot to do with the fact of the entire economy being affected by this thing. We saw that right away. And when Louis DeJoy got put in and started slowing the mail down over the summer, you could see that a little bit. I had customers ask, “Are we getting all of our mail every day?” And I said, “Every piece of mail that I get, I deliver to you.”
When the stories started coming out about the machinery in the distribution centers getting literally dismantled for supposed cost-saving measures, I couldn’t understand. It takes away the most efficient tool in the toolbox. The mail literally cannot be processed without those machines. No human can do 10,000 pieces of mail in a minute.
The thing about the mail is, it’s not like you can just get rid of it. It still needs to get delivered. Every piece of mail you don’t deliver today is a piece of mail you have to deliver tomorrow. I would look at those full tubs stacked up in cases [in the photos posted to social media] and say, “That’s three weeks’ worth of work right there.” But frankly, it could have been a lot worse. I’m lucky that we have whistleblowers and that people paid attention.
Even out here in a conservative area, everyone that I come in contact with has been pretty supportive. I don’t think that people were like, “I support the president, and that means I support his postmaster general.” For the most part, people were like, “We want our mail. We want our prescriptions to show up when they’re supposed to show up.” My customers would see the news stories and say, “We love the post office. We support you guys.” It was a strange feeling, but it was a nice feeling. People would wave at you and honk their horns that week when it was basically the main story in the news.
My customers like me, and that’s one of the dissonant things about it. You can kind of tell a person’s politics by delivering their mail. You can guess what side of the aisle they’re on. Maybe they get a conservative publication like the Epoch Times or something. But when you meet them in the street, you’ll have a lovely conversation with them. It’s one of those things about life in America these days: The politics are so poisonous and so crazy, but people are often still friendly to each other.
It’s like what they say: “Congress is awful, but my congressman is great.” Once you have a personal relationship with someone, it’s harder to demonize them or say, “All of these problems are because of what you do.” Once people form a personal relationship with something, it becomes much harder to criticize it with a blanket statement. I am pretty much the only federal employee most of my customers see on a regular basis. I don’t know if it would change people’s minds about the government if there were outreach from other agencies. But once you can personalize an agency or a group, you can’t really attack them and feel okay about it.
Among my coworkers, it was a different story. I would ask some of them what they thought about the slowdown, and they would say, “What are you talking about? That’s not happening. It’s fake news. We’re still getting our mail, aren’t we?” I would ask if they had customers complain to them about missing stuff, and they would say, “Yeah, but customers always complain.” I guess that’s why I don’t talk about these things at work. If you don’t have an actual relationship with something or the problem isn’t directly affecting you or someone you know, the problem may as well not be there. I can say, “3,000 people died yesterday,” and nobody at work is saying anything about it. We’re all walking around like, “Sure sucks that I have to wear a mask because the boss is here.”
It has to do with the strong independent streak in rural Americans. These are people who don’t want the government to tell them what to do. They want to live their lives and think it’s ridiculous to be asked to wear a mask. When Donald Trump tells them, “Masks are great. Everybody should wear masks. But I don’t,” that’s a big cue to people around here. When people around here see a business is closed because there’s been a Covid outbreak, they’re more likely to say, “Well, this sucks for me.”
When stores were closing, when Walmart closed — people were like, “Okay, this is a big deal.” But there seemed to be so much denialism about how big a deal it was. A lot of it had to do with the fact that the worst parts of it, at first, were in New York. So around here it became a Democrat disease that we didn’t have to worry about because none of us travel that much, and it’s never going to come here. So why do we have to be forced to do all of these things?
When the mask mandate was put into effect, within a couple days, half the businesses I deliver to had a sign posted on their doors that said, basically, because of the governor we have to do this. And it’s not because of the governor! It’s because of the virus. And then plenty more had a sign up on their front door, like, “Masks are mandatory, but according to HIPAA, we cannot ask you if you have a condition preventing you from wearing a mask. So if you’re not wearing a mask, we will assume you have some sort of condition that prevents you from wearing it.” So you could go in there without a mask, and it’s perfectly fine. That’s still the case. I walk into a business to deliver mail, and nobody’s wearing a mask. They’re not even pretending to try.
I don’t know what it would take to get people to change their behaviors in my town. The normalization of how this has all gone down will never cease to blow my mind and upset me. For the rest of my life, I’m going to wonder how we let that happen. How did so many of my fellow Americans decide that this is just the way it is now? To just let people die? I hope I’m not one of them.
[A week after Natalie and I talked, she sent me an email saying she had contracted Covid-19. She is recovering.]
Next: Exercise in quarantine, keeping a small business alive, and the unusual intimacy of Zoom


vox--2020-12-30--The rise of working-while-working out from home

It ’ s a desk !
It ’ s a bike !
It ’ s a ... desk bike !
While most gyms and fitness studios across the US were shutting their doors ( and then prematurely reopening them in some states ) , the “ working out while working from home ” category of merchandise was climbing toward massive mainstream appeal .
Thanks in part to millennials ’ obsession with bettering themselves , the self-improvement industry is valued at $ 11 billion .
We ’ re committed to a lifetime of optimization , so we ’ re putting pressure @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of isolation .
Because if we ’ re not doing something — or everything , all at once — then clearly we ’ ve wasted a tremendous amount of time that we ’ ll never ever get back , right ?
For many , combining work time with workout time is a no-brainer .
It ’ s a natural crossover , accelerated by life in lockdown .
In a survey conducted by the accounting and consulting firm PwC , 71 percent of their millennial employees admitted that work demands interfered with their personal @ @ @ @ @ @ @ example of how this drive for productivity has manifested than Flexispot ’ s cycle desk bike , which went viral on TikTok thanks to Jules Nguyen .
After Nguyen included the bike desk in an Amazon haul , as part of a partnership with the e-commerce megaretailer , it sold out within the first 24 hours of uploading the video .
The remaining inventory on Flexispot ’ s website was out of stock by the next day and then went on backorder until the end of the year .
Based on tracking from @ @ @ @ @ @ @ about $ 12,000 worth of bikes on Amazon .
( Nguyen won ’ t know the total amount until the rest of the orders are shipped in January 2021 . )
Since posting the video in October , it has racked up 2.3 million “ Likes ” and helped Nguyen to gain 155,600-plus followers on TikTok .
With her normal life as a travel-turned-lifestyle blogger completely changed by the pandemic , Nguyen needed something easy for multitasking that would allow her to “ move throughout the day but still work.
” She wasn @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ( “ I can ’ t even walk and text at the same time so I don ’ t think that would have been good for me , ” she says ) , and had been considering the bike desk when Amazon reached out .
The 28-year-old says it was a perfect fit .
“ I gained a lot of weight because of Covid and I sit at my desk and work from home for what it feels like all day , ” she explained .
“ Working for myself , I don @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , I just work throughout the day so I ended up not really exercising because gyms weren ’ t open.
” As far as personal trainers are concerned , there ’ s not much to dislike about modern fitness technology .
Thea Hughes , a strength and wellness coach at Session and the founder of 6FT Training Club , sees devices like the desk bike as a great way for the “ everyday athlete ” to get their joints in motion .
For former commuters who are now spending the majority of their @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , she thinks this form of steady state cardio is “ hugely beneficial.
” “ Do I think it ’ s the most effective way to do it ?
It probably depends on how much time you have , what your interests are , and where you ’ re at , ” she explained .
“ It looks like there ’ s a tension knob to increase the resistance so it ’ s going to be just as effective in theory as going out for a walk.
” But , she says , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is the sunlight , fresh air , and some of those other stimuli that do obviously have proven effects of boosting mood.
” During the first phase of lockdown , the most basic fitness equipment like weights , kettlebells , mats , props , and other affordable accessories was flying off the shelves at major retailers like Amazon , Target , and Dick ’ s Sporting Goods with a massive boost in sales of 170 percent .
The increased interest in at-home workout gear during the pandemic reportedly spiked by 500 percent , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ account for production delays on high-demand items .
Nostalgic outdoor activities like roller skating even made a comeback , which led to Moxi Skates seeing a sales growth of 1,000 percent since March .
With desk chairs becoming obsolete — studies have shown that sitting sedentary for too long is bad for your health — some millennials upgraded their stations with ellipticals and treadmill desks .
Hughes points out that , in general , “ our body can ’ t tell the difference from a Bala bangle or a 3-liter jug of water @ @ @ @ @ @ @ shouldn ’ t limit consumers in terms of their product selection .
The real hack with fitness is to set up daily habits to follow that will support a desired outcome and then “ integrating [ equipment ] into your plan.
” She adds , “ People like to get items and then be like , ‘ Oh , all of my problems are solved , ’ but then the said object just stays in the corner.
” Kira West , a fitness insider and community cultivator , thinks that “ from more @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ re more clear on your goals that ’ s when you should think about spending more money.
” She believes that the attachment to many of these shiny tools is rooted in a sense of spatial differentiation that sometimes borders the line of elitism .
As the pandemic continues , many of our living spaces have transformed into makeshift fitness studios full of tech-savvy gear like smart mirrors and jump ropes that monitor our every move while meeting the intersection of functional and fashionable .
We strap on colorful bangles , sandbags @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ankles , and waists just to feel something — validation from everyone on Instagram bearing witness to the fitness .
So why wouldn ’ t peak functionality extend to combining work and fitness ?
“ Millennials , for good reason , feel entitled so we ’ re like ‘ Why can ’ t we have a desk and a bike ?
Why can ’ t we do it all ?
’ I think that ’ s an awesome attitude , but it ’ s sometimes funny to see what it looks like , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , many products that attempt to bring the studio experience home .
Nick Bognar , a therapist who specializes in couples therapy , trauma , men ’ s mental health , and codependency , mostly attributes the increased attention on fitness right now to anxiety .
When thrust into a period of uncertainty , our first instinct is usually to sort out what we can realistically control .
“ In those moments , many of us despair , and many others scramble to find the things we think we can control and throttle @ @ @ @ @ @ @ nobody was prepared for living through a pandemic , everyone is figuring out how to overcome being blindsided by such a huge obstacle .
With productivity levels fluctuating in response to constant stress , many of us have turned inward to reconsider what impacts our overall state of well-being .
We can only sit with ourselves if we ’ re constantly in motion because of the collective feeling of being stuck in place .
So many of us treat our bodies like machines because we crave the consistency of structure and following a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ enough to have our basic needs like food , shelter , and security met — we need more in order to feel fulfilled .
Living in a country that runs on capitalism , this conditioning has turned us into success addicts in pursuit of the “ health is wealth ” mentality .
Jason Fierstein , a private practice psychotherapist , argues that the drive to work out while working from home is also a reflection of our self-worth .
“ Working out from home allows us to experience that sense of productivity .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ pandemic and be our ever-productive selves , ” he explained in an email .
“ Being able to multitask , we unconsciously validate ourselves for being these perfectly productive people , overcoming the adversity in which we ’ re faced , which adds to our self-validation.
” “ Being able to multitask , we unconsciously validate ourselves for being these perfectly productive people ” But one of the biggest challenges with working from home is doing everything in the same room .
Prior to the pandemic , West used to work out of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ because “ changing places and spaces was so helpful for me.
” Now , she ’ s forced to do it all within her apartment .
Her workouts have had to evolve .
While living in New York , she found it difficult to wake up early to “ commute to the living room ” for a morning workout .
She adds , “ I was also trying to replicate something that didn ’ t exist.
” Tess Brigham , a therapist and millennial life coach , acknowledges that some people are struggling @ @ @ @ @ @ @ doesn ’ t quite feel the same .
For many of her clients , fitness is a vehicle for creating a sense of certainty in their lives , which she views as a healthy coping mechanism .
“ I ’ ve certainly had clients who really enjoyed what it was like to go to a gym and the people that they knew there , ” she said .
“ For them , losing all that was huge.
” To some degree , the “ working out while working from home ” subcategory has @ @ @ @ @ @ @ grieving the death of the gym with the hope that movement will be the best form of medicine .
( ClassPass almost feels like a distant memory from a pre-pandemic past . )
The lack of camaraderie can take on its own toll and is something else that may take longer to recover from .
Gyms won ’ t be obsolete in the future , but it will be a long time before they look and feel the way they used to .
In the meantime , people should focus on creating an @ @ @ @ @ @ @ regardless of trendy equipment .
Even if it ’ s just a corner in a room , Hughes encourages people to reexamine their current layout and make a room feel more like a sanctuary so it ’ s a place that you actually want to be .
The next steps from there involve “ creating a positive headspace , ” allowing yourself to have “ sacred time for yourself , ” and setting goals of what you want to accomplish from a workout .
It ’ s imperative not to put too much @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a fantasy of constantly working out now that we have an indefinite amount of time at our disposal .
“ The other thing I ’ ve noticed about millennials is they definitely feel like everything in their life has to be productive , ” Brigham concludes .
“ I think it ’ s interesting — like are you exercising because it ’ s the most efficient way for you to work out or are you doing it as a way of not really feeling your feelings ?
”

It’s a desk! It’s a bike! It’s a ... desk bike! While most gyms and fitness studios across the US were shutting their doors (and then prematurely reopening them in some states), the “working out while working from home” category of merchandise was climbing toward massive mainstream appeal. Thanks in part to millennials’ obsession with bettering themselves, the self-improvement industry is valued at $11 billion. We’re committed to a lifetime of optimization, so we’re putting pressure on ourselves to make the most out of isolation. Because if we’re not doing something — or everything, all at once — then clearly we’ve wasted a tremendous amount of time that we’ll never ever get back, right?
For many, combining work time with workout time is a no-brainer. It’s a natural crossover, accelerated by life in lockdown. In a survey conducted by the accounting and consulting firm PwC, 71 percent of their millennial employees admitted that work demands interfered with their personal lives. There’s no better example of how this drive for productivity has manifested than Flexispot’s cycle desk bike, which went viral on TikTok thanks to Jules Nguyen.
After Nguyen included the bike desk in an Amazon haul, as part of a partnership with the e-commerce megaretailer, it sold out within the first 24 hours of uploading the video. The remaining inventory on Flexispot’s website was out of stock by the next day and then went on backorder until the end of the year. Based on tracking from her affiliate link, she has sold about $12,000 worth of bikes on Amazon. (Nguyen won’t know the total amount until the rest of the orders are shipped in January 2021.) Since posting the video in October, it has racked up 2.3 million “Likes” and helped Nguyen to gain 155,600-plus followers on TikTok.
With her normal life as a travel-turned-lifestyle blogger completely changed by the pandemic, Nguyen needed something easy for multitasking that would allow her to “move throughout the day but still work.” She wasn’t interested in a treadmill desk (“I can’t even walk and text at the same time so I don’t think that would have been good for me,” she says), and had been considering the bike desk when Amazon reached out. The 28-year-old says it was a perfect fit. “I gained a lot of weight because of Covid and I sit at my desk and work from home for what it feels like all day,” she explained. “Working for myself, I don’t have a 9 to 5, I just work throughout the day so I ended up not really exercising because gyms weren’t open.”
As far as personal trainers are concerned, there’s not much to dislike about modern fitness technology. Thea Hughes, a strength and wellness coach at Session and the founder of 6FT Training Club, sees devices like the desk bike as a great way for the “everyday athlete” to get their joints in motion. For former commuters who are now spending the majority of their day sitting in front of a screen, she thinks this form of steady state cardio is “hugely beneficial.”
“Do I think it’s the most effective way to do it? It probably depends on how much time you have, what your interests are, and where you’re at,” she explained. “It looks like there’s a tension knob to increase the resistance so it’s going to be just as effective in theory as going out for a walk.” But, she says, “What you’re not getting is the sunlight, fresh air, and some of those other stimuli that do obviously have proven effects of boosting mood.”
During the first phase of lockdown, the most basic fitness equipment like weights, kettlebells, mats, props, and other affordable accessories was flying off the shelves at major retailers like Amazon, Target, and Dick’s Sporting Goods with a massive boost in sales of 170 percent. The increased interest in at-home workout gear during the pandemic reportedly spiked by 500 percent, forcing some brands to implement preorders to account for production delays on high-demand items. Nostalgic outdoor activities like roller skating even made a comeback, which led to Moxi Skates seeing a sales growth of 1,000 percent since March. With desk chairs becoming obsolete — studies have shown that sitting sedentary for too long is bad for your health — some millennials upgraded their stations with ellipticals and treadmill desks.
Hughes points out that, in general, “our body can’t tell the difference from a Bala bangle or a 3-liter jug of water or a resistance band” so that shouldn’t limit consumers in terms of their product selection. The real hack with fitness is to set up daily habits to follow that will support a desired outcome and then “integrating [equipment] into your plan.” She adds, “People like to get items and then be like, ‘Oh, all of my problems are solved,’ but then the said object just stays in the corner.”
Kira West, a fitness insider and community cultivator, thinks that “from more of an investment perspective, once you’re more clear on your goals that’s when you should think about spending more money.” She believes that the attachment to many of these shiny tools is rooted in a sense of spatial differentiation that sometimes borders the line of elitism. As the pandemic continues, many of our living spaces have transformed into makeshift fitness studios full of tech-savvy gear like smart mirrors and jump ropes that monitor our every move while meeting the intersection of functional and fashionable. We strap on colorful bangles, sandbags, and belts to our wrists, ankles, and waists just to feel something — validation from everyone on Instagram bearing witness to the fitness.
So why wouldn’t peak functionality extend to combining work and fitness? “Millennials, for good reason, feel entitled so we’re like ‘Why can’t we have a desk and a bike? Why can’t we do it all?’ I think that’s an awesome attitude, but it’s sometimes funny to see what it looks like,” West said, highlighting the many, many products that attempt to bring the studio experience home.
Nick Bognar, a therapist who specializes in couples therapy, trauma, men’s mental health, and codependency, mostly attributes the increased attention on fitness right now to anxiety. When thrust into a period of uncertainty, our first instinct is usually to sort out what we can realistically control. “In those moments, many of us despair, and many others scramble to find the things we think we can control and throttle them,” he said. Since nobody was prepared for living through a pandemic, everyone is figuring out how to overcome being blindsided by such a huge obstacle.
With productivity levels fluctuating in response to constant stress, many of us have turned inward to reconsider what impacts our overall state of well-being. We can only sit with ourselves if we’re constantly in motion because of the collective feeling of being stuck in place. So many of us treat our bodies like machines because we crave the consistency of structure and following a stable routine. It’s not enough to have our basic needs like food, shelter, and security met — we need more in order to feel fulfilled. Living in a country that runs on capitalism, this conditioning has turned us into success addicts in pursuit of the “health is wealth” mentality.
Jason Fierstein, a private practice psychotherapist, argues that the drive to work out while working from home is also a reflection of our self-worth. “Working out from home allows us to experience that sense of productivity. … We can still multitask through the pandemic and be our ever-productive selves,” he explained in an email. “Being able to multitask, we unconsciously validate ourselves for being these perfectly productive people, overcoming the adversity in which we’re faced, which adds to our self-validation.”
“Being able to multitask, we unconsciously validate ourselves for being these perfectly productive people”
But one of the biggest challenges with working from home is doing everything in the same room. Prior to the pandemic, West used to work out of an office and exercise in a gym because “changing places and spaces was so helpful for me.” Now, she’s forced to do it all within her apartment. Her workouts have had to evolve. While living in New York, she found it difficult to wake up early to “commute to the living room” for a morning workout. She adds, “I was also trying to replicate something that didn’t exist.”
Tess Brigham, a therapist and millennial life coach, acknowledges that some people are struggling with working out at home because it doesn’t quite feel the same. For many of her clients, fitness is a vehicle for creating a sense of certainty in their lives, which she views as a healthy coping mechanism. “I’ve certainly had clients who really enjoyed what it was like to go to a gym and the people that they knew there,” she said. “For them, losing all that was huge.”
To some degree, the “working out while working from home” subcategory has cultivated an emotional support group for those grieving the death of the gym with the hope that movement will be the best form of medicine. (ClassPass almost feels like a distant memory from a pre-pandemic past.) The lack of camaraderie can take on its own toll and is something else that may take longer to recover from.
Gyms won’t be obsolete in the future, but it will be a long time before they look and feel the way they used to. In the meantime, people should focus on creating an environment that works for them at home regardless of trendy equipment. Even if it’s just a corner in a room, Hughes encourages people to reexamine their current layout and make a room feel more like a sanctuary so it’s a place that you actually want to be. The next steps from there involve “creating a positive headspace,” allowing yourself to have “sacred time for yourself,” and setting goals of what you want to accomplish from a workout. It’s imperative not to put too much pressure on ourselves to live up to a fantasy of constantly working out now that we have an indefinite amount of time at our disposal.
“The other thing I’ve noticed about millennials is they definitely feel like everything in their life has to be productive,” Brigham concludes. “I think it’s interesting — like are you exercising because it’s the most efficient way for you to work out or are you doing it as a way of not really feeling your feelings?”


vox--2020-12-30--The decline and fall of the American death penalty

Fewer people were executed in 2020 than in any year for nearly three decades , and fewer people were sentenced to die than at any point since the Supreme Court created the modern legal framework governing the death penalty in 1976 .
Those are two of the striking findings in the Death Penalty Information Center ’ s ( DPIC ) annual report , which was released on December 16 .
One significant reason so few people were executed in 2020 is the Covid-19 pandemic — which has slowed court proceedings and turned gathering prison officials and witnesses for an execution @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
But even if 2020 is an outlier year due to the pandemic , DPIC ’ s data shows a sharp and consistent trend away from the death penalty since the number of capital sentences peaked in the 1990s .
In total , only 17 people were executed in 2020 , a number that would be much lower if not for the Trump administration resuming federal executions this year for the first time in nearly two decades .
2020 is the first year in American history when the federal government executed more people @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 10 of the 17 people executed in 2020 were killed by the federal government .
Only five states — Texas , Alabama , Georgia , Missouri , and Tennessee — conducted executions in 2020 .
And of these five states , only one , Texas , killed more than one person on death row .
The trend away from new death sentences and executions has continued despite two recent significant pro-death penalty opinions from the Supreme Court .
The Court ’ s decisions in Glossip v. Gross ( 2015 ) and especially in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ it much more difficult for death row inmates to claim their executions violate the Constitution ’ s prohibition on cruel and unusual punishments .
Nevertheless , it remains to be seen whether the longstanding trend away from the death penalty will eventually be reversed by the Court ’ s new 6-3 Republican majority .
For the moment , the trend appears to be robust even in the face of significant doctrinal shifts by the Supreme Court .
Why has the number of death sentences and executions declined so sharply ?
There are many @ @ @ @ @ @ @ penalty ’ s decline .
Among other things , crime fell sharply in recent decades — the number of murders and non-negligent manslaughters fell from nearly 25,000 in 1991 to less than 15,000 in 2010 .
Public support for the death penalty has also fallen sharply , from 80 percent in the mid-90s to just 55 percent in 2020 , according to Gallup .
And , beginning in the 1980s , many states enacted laws permitting the most serious offenders to be sentenced to life without parole instead of death — thus giving @ @ @ @ @ @ @ from society without killing them .
Yet , as Duke University law professor Brandon Garrett argues in End of Its Rope : How Killing the Death Penalty Can Revive Criminal Justice , these and similar factors can only partially explain why the death penalty is in decline .
Murders , for example , “ have declined modestly since 2000 ( by about 10 percent ) , ” Garrett writes .
Yet “ annual death sentences have fallen by 90 percent since their peak in the 1990s.
” Garrett argues , persuasively , that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ decline in death sentences is the fact that capital defendants typically receive far better legal representation today than they did a generation ago .
As Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg said in 2001 , “ People who are well represented at trial do not get the death penalty.
” The Supreme Court briefly abolished the death penalty in Furman v. Georgia ( 1972 ) .
Though Furman produced a maze of concurring and dissenting opinions and no one opinion explaining the Court ’ s rationale , many of the justices pointed to the arbitrary @ @ @ @ @ @ @ out .
The particular death sentences before the Court in Furman , Justice Potter Stewart wrote , “ are cruel and unusual in the same way that being struck by lightning is cruel and unusual ” because death sentences appeared to be handed down to just a “ random handful ” of serious offenders .
Four years later , in Gregg v. Georgia ( 1976 ) , the Court allowed states to resume sentencing serious offenders to death but only with adequate procedural safeguards .
Gregg upheld a Georgia statute that allowed prosecutors @ @ @ @ @ @ @ warranted because certain “ aggravating circumstances ” are present , such as if the offender had a history of serious violent crime .
Defense attorneys , in turn , could present the jury with “ mitigating circumstances ” that justified a lesser penalty , such as evidence that the defendant had a mental illness or was abused as a child .
A death sentence was only warranted if the aggravating factors outweigh the mitigating factors .
This weighing test is now a centerpiece of capital trials in the United States , which means @ @ @ @ @ @ @ lawyer is often to humanize their client in the eyes of a jury .
Defense counsel must explain how factors like an abusive upbringing , mental deficiencies , or personal tragedy led their client to commit a terrible crime .
Doing this well , Garrett argues , “ takes a team.
” It requires investigators who can dig into a client ’ s background , and it often requires social workers or other professionals who “ have the time and the ability to elicit sensitive , embarrassing , and often humiliating evidence ( @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the defendant may have never disclosed.
” And yet , especially in the years following Gregg , many states didn ’ t provide even minimally competent legal counsel to capital defendants — much less a team that included a trained investigator and a social worker .
Virginia , for example , has executed more people since the Gregg decision than any state except for Texas .
A major reason is that , for quite some time , Virginia only paid capital defense lawyers about $ 13 an hour , and a lawyer ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 650 per case .
In 2002 , however , the state created four Regional Capital Defender offices .
And , when state-employed defense teams couldn ’ t represent a particular client , the state started paying private lawyers up to $ 200 an hour for in-court work and up to $ 150 an hour for out-of-court work .
As a result , the number of death row inmates in Virginia fell from 50 in the 1990s to just five in 2017 .
Virginia ’ s experience , moreover , was hardly isolated .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ laws in the last four decades that provided at least some defense resources to capital defendants .
And in states that did not provide adequate resources to defendants , several nonprofits emerged to pick up the slack .
In Texas , for example , an organization called the Gulf Region Advocacy Center ( GRACE ) was formed in response to a notorious case where a capital defense lawyer slept through much of his client ’ s trial .
Some of these nonprofit lawyers have become minor celebrities within the legal profession .
At @ @ @ @ @ @ @ arguably a celebrity well beyond the world of attorneys — Stevenson was played by Michael B. Jordan in the movie Just Mercy .
Capital defendants , in other words , are much less likely to be left alone — or practically alone with an incompetent lawyer — during a trial that will decide if they live or die .
And that means that they are far more likely to convince a jury that mitigating factors justify a sentence other than death .
The future of the death penalty is now very uncertain thanks @ @ @ @ @ @ @ majority Cases like Furman and Gregg are rooted in the Eighth Amendment , which prohibits “ cruel and unusual punishments.
” This amendment ’ s use of the word “ unusual ” suggests that the kinds of punishments forbidden by the Constitution should change over time , as certain punishments fall out of favor in society and thus become more unusual .
As Chief Justice Earl Warren wrote in Trop v. Dulles ( 1958 ) , the Eighth Amendment “ must draw its meaning from the evolving standards of decency that mark the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ this framework , there ’ s a very strong argument that the death penalty is unconstitutional .
After all , if a punishment becomes more constitutionally dubious as it becomes less common , what should we make of a punishment that was only carried out 17 times in the last year and that has been used less and less frequently over the last three decades ?
The Supreme Court , however , almost certainly cut off any chance that this argument could prevail in its 5-4 decision in Bucklew .
Although Bucklew does @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Supreme Court decisions applying Warren ’ s “ evolving standards of decency ” test , Justice Neil Gorsuch ’ s majority opinion in Bucklew ignores that framework altogether and substitutes a different , much more narrow approach to the Eighth Amendment .
“ Death was ‘ the standard penalty for all serious crimes ’ at the time of the founding , ” Gorsuch wrote in Bucklew .
And , while his opinion does list some methods of execution — “ dragging the prisoner to the place of execution , disemboweling , quartering , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ — that violate the Eighth Amendment , Gorsuch argues that these methods of execution were unconstitutional because “ by the time of the founding , these methods had long fallen out of use and so had become ‘ unusual.
’ ” Warren ’ s framework , in other words , asks whether a particular punishment has fallen out of favor today .
Gorsuch ’ s framework , by contrast , asks whether a particular punishment was out of favor at the time of the founding .
That ’ s a sea change in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ have profound implications for the death penalty .
It ’ s not yet clear how far the Court will take its recent opinion in Bucklew .
Bucklew was a case about whether a state could use a particularly agonizing method to execute someone sentenced to death .
That makes it distinct from cases like Gregg , which ask whether certain individuals can be given a death sentence in the first place .
It ’ s possible that the Supreme Court ’ s current majority will leave in place the Gregg framework , with @ @ @ @ @ @ @ factors , while also giving states more leeway to decide how to execute someone once a death sentence is handed down .
At the very least , though , Bucklew suggests that many members of the Supreme Court object to some of the foundational principles that guided Eighth Amendment cases for many decades .
And that they are eager to make significant doctrinal changes to the constitutional law governing criminal punishments .
The future of the death penalty is highly uncertain .
But Bucklew gives capital defense lawyers plenty of reasons to fear @ @ @

Fewer people were executed in 2020 than in any year for nearly three decades, and fewer people were sentenced to die than at any point since the Supreme Court created the modern legal framework governing the death penalty in 1976. Those are two of the striking findings in the Death Penalty Information Center’s (DPIC) annual report, which was released on December 16.
One significant reason so few people were executed in 2020 is the Covid-19 pandemic — which has slowed court proceedings and turned gathering prison officials and witnesses for an execution into a dangerous event for everyone involved. But even if 2020 is an outlier year due to the pandemic, DPIC’s data shows a sharp and consistent trend away from the death penalty since the number of capital sentences peaked in the 1990s.
In total, only 17 people were executed in 2020, a number that would be much lower if not for the Trump administration resuming federal executions this year for the first time in nearly two decades. 2020 is the first year in American history when the federal government executed more people than all of the states combined: 10 of the 17 people executed in 2020 were killed by the federal government.
Only five states — Texas, Alabama, Georgia, Missouri, and Tennessee — conducted executions in 2020. And of these five states, only one, Texas, killed more than one person on death row.
The trend away from new death sentences and executions has continued despite two recent significant pro-death penalty opinions from the Supreme Court. The Court’s decisions in Glossip v. Gross (2015) and especially in Bucklew v. Precythe (2019) make it much more difficult for death row inmates to claim their executions violate the Constitution’s prohibition on cruel and unusual punishments.
Nevertheless, it remains to be seen whether the longstanding trend away from the death penalty will eventually be reversed by the Court’s new 6-3 Republican majority. For the moment, the trend appears to be robust even in the face of significant doctrinal shifts by the Supreme Court.
Why has the number of death sentences and executions declined so sharply?
There are many factors that likely contribute to the death penalty’s decline. Among other things, crime fell sharply in recent decades — the number of murders and non-negligent manslaughters fell from nearly 25,000 in 1991 to less than 15,000 in 2010. Public support for the death penalty has also fallen sharply, from 80 percent in the mid-90s to just 55 percent in 2020, according to Gallup. And, beginning in the 1980s, many states enacted laws permitting the most serious offenders to be sentenced to life without parole instead of death — thus giving juries a way to remove such offenders from society without killing them.
Yet, as Duke University law professor Brandon Garrett argues in End of Its Rope: How Killing the Death Penalty Can Revive Criminal Justice, these and similar factors can only partially explain why the death penalty is in decline. Murders, for example, “have declined modestly since 2000 (by about 10 percent),” Garrett writes. Yet “annual death sentences have fallen by 90 percent since their peak in the 1990s.”
Garrett argues, persuasively, that one of the biggest factors driving the decline in death sentences is the fact that capital defendants typically receive far better legal representation today than they did a generation ago. As Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg said in 2001, “People who are well represented at trial do not get the death penalty.”
The Supreme Court briefly abolished the death penalty in Furman v. Georgia (1972). Though Furman produced a maze of concurring and dissenting opinions and no one opinion explaining the Court’s rationale, many of the justices pointed to the arbitrary manner in which death sentences were doled out. The particular death sentences before the Court in Furman, Justice Potter Stewart wrote, “are cruel and unusual in the same way that being struck by lightning is cruel and unusual” because death sentences appeared to be handed down to just a “random handful” of serious offenders.
Four years later, in Gregg v. Georgia (1976), the Court allowed states to resume sentencing serious offenders to death but only with adequate procedural safeguards. Gregg upheld a Georgia statute that allowed prosecutors to claim that a death sentence is warranted because certain “aggravating circumstances” are present, such as if the offender had a history of serious violent crime. Defense attorneys, in turn, could present the jury with “mitigating circumstances” that justified a lesser penalty, such as evidence that the defendant had a mental illness or was abused as a child. A death sentence was only warranted if the aggravating factors outweigh the mitigating factors.
This weighing test is now a centerpiece of capital trials in the United States, which means the primary job of a capital defense lawyer is often to humanize their client in the eyes of a jury. Defense counsel must explain how factors like an abusive upbringing, mental deficiencies, or personal tragedy led their client to commit a terrible crime.
Doing this well, Garrett argues, “takes a team.” It requires investigators who can dig into a client’s background, and it often requires social workers or other professionals who “have the time and the ability to elicit sensitive, embarrassing, and often humiliating evidence (e.g. family sexual abuse) that the defendant may have never disclosed.”
And yet, especially in the years following Gregg, many states didn’t provide even minimally competent legal counsel to capital defendants — much less a team that included a trained investigator and a social worker.
Virginia, for example, has executed more people since the Gregg decision than any state except for Texas. A major reason is that, for quite some time, Virginia only paid capital defense lawyers about $13 an hour, and a lawyer’s total fee was capped at $650 per case.
In 2002, however, the state created four Regional Capital Defender offices. And, when state-employed defense teams couldn’t represent a particular client, the state started paying private lawyers up to $200 an hour for in-court work and up to $150 an hour for out-of-court work. As a result, the number of death row inmates in Virginia fell from 50 in the 1990s to just five in 2017.
Virginia’s experience, moreover, was hardly isolated. As Garrett notes, many states enacted laws in the last four decades that provided at least some defense resources to capital defendants.
And in states that did not provide adequate resources to defendants, several nonprofits emerged to pick up the slack. In Texas, for example, an organization called the Gulf Region Advocacy Center (GRACE) was formed in response to a notorious case where a capital defense lawyer slept through much of his client’s trial.
Some of these nonprofit lawyers have become minor celebrities within the legal profession. At least one, Bryan Stevenson, is arguably a celebrity well beyond the world of attorneys — Stevenson was played by Michael B. Jordan in the movie Just Mercy.
Capital defendants, in other words, are much less likely to be left alone — or practically alone with an incompetent lawyer — during a trial that will decide if they live or die. And that means that they are far more likely to convince a jury that mitigating factors justify a sentence other than death.
The future of the death penalty is now very uncertain thanks to the Supreme Court’s new majority
Cases like Furman and Gregg are rooted in the Eighth Amendment, which prohibits “cruel and unusual punishments.” This amendment’s use of the word “unusual” suggests that the kinds of punishments forbidden by the Constitution should change over time, as certain punishments fall out of favor in society and thus become more unusual. As Chief Justice Earl Warren wrote in Trop v. Dulles (1958), the Eighth Amendment “must draw its meaning from the evolving standards of decency that mark the progress of a maturing society.”
Under this framework, there’s a very strong argument that the death penalty is unconstitutional. After all, if a punishment becomes more constitutionally dubious as it becomes less common, what should we make of a punishment that was only carried out 17 times in the last year and that has been used less and less frequently over the last three decades?
The Supreme Court, however, almost certainly cut off any chance that this argument could prevail in its 5-4 decision in Bucklew.
Although Bucklew does not explicitly overrule the long line of Supreme Court decisions applying Warren’s “evolving standards of decency” test, Justice Neil Gorsuch’s majority opinion in Bucklew ignores that framework altogether and substitutes a different, much more narrow approach to the Eighth Amendment.
“Death was ‘the standard penalty for all serious crimes’ at the time of the founding,” Gorsuch wrote in Bucklew. And, while his opinion does list some methods of execution — “dragging the prisoner to the place of execution, disemboweling, quartering, public dissection, and burning alive” — that violate the Eighth Amendment, Gorsuch argues that these methods of execution were unconstitutional because “by the time of the founding, these methods had long fallen out of use and so had become ‘unusual.’”
Warren’s framework, in other words, asks whether a particular punishment has fallen out of favor today. Gorsuch’s framework, by contrast, asks whether a particular punishment was out of favor at the time of the founding. That’s a sea change in Eighth Amendment doctrine and one that could have profound implications for the death penalty.
It’s not yet clear how far the Court will take its recent opinion in Bucklew. Bucklew was a case about whether a state could use a particularly agonizing method to execute someone sentenced to death. That makes it distinct from cases like Gregg, which ask whether certain individuals can be given a death sentence in the first place.
It’s possible that the Supreme Court’s current majority will leave in place the Gregg framework, with its mandatory weighing of aggravating and mitigating factors, while also giving states more leeway to decide how to execute someone once a death sentence is handed down.
At the very least, though, Bucklew suggests that many members of the Supreme Court object to some of the foundational principles that guided Eighth Amendment cases for many decades. And that they are eager to make significant doctrinal changes to the constitutional law governing criminal punishments.
The future of the death penalty is highly uncertain. But Bucklew gives capital defense lawyers plenty of reasons to fear that future.


vox--2020-12-30--The 12 most-read Future Perfect articles of 2020

Here at Future Perfect , it ’ s tradition to cap off each year by presenting a list of the articles that you all read the most .
In the past , that ’ s included stories on everything from artificial intelligence to plant-based meat .
And while we still covered those topics this year , our team early in the year realized we ’ d need to pivot to in-depth coverage of the one topic you all were reading a lot about .
Pandemics and other catastrophic risks to humanity have always been topics of interest for our section @ @ @ @ @ @ @ pieces in the launch week of Future Perfect in fall 2018 was by former Obama Ebola czar — and now Biden chief of staff — Ron Klain on how the US was not prepared for the next big pandemic .
His piece , and our coverage warning about the growing risk of a pandemic , has proved prescient .
Without further ado , here are our most-read pieces of 2020 .
I ’ m focusing on articles written by the core Future Perfect team ( Kelsey Piper , Dylan Matthews , and me @ @ @ @ @ @ @ contributed amazing work to our section .
1 ) 11 charts that explain the coronavirus pandemic by Dylan Matthews It will perhaps come as no great shock that all our most-read articles of the year were about Covid-19 and its repercussions .
Many — like this Dylan Matthews piece — were published at the beginning of the pandemic , when everyone was freaking out and frantically searching for information .
Dylan presented a ton of info in a really easy-to-digest format : 11 charts that shed light on everything from how fast the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ it is , to who ’ s likeliest to die from it .
2 ) Why we ’ re not overreacting to the coronavirus , in one chart by Kelsey Piper and Christina Animashaun In late March , when there were only about 35,000 confirmed cases of Covid-19 in the US , some Americans looked around at all the school and office closures and said the country was overreacting .
Kelsey explained an important point at a crucial early juncture : When we ’ re looking at case rates , we ’ re @ @ @ @ @ @ @ two weeks ago , because there ’ s a lag between when people get infected and when the infections show up in test results .
“ You have to take steps that appear in the moment to be an exceptional overreaction — because by the time it looks like the steps you ’ re taking are appropriate , it will have been too late , ” she wrote .
When the Trump administration finally signed a stimulus bill into law to respond to the economic downturn brought on by the pandemic , cash-strapped @ @ @ @ @ @ @ would work .
Who would get the checks ?
Would the middle class get more than poorer people ?
Would rich people still get big checks ?
Dylan explained the economic policy that everyone was wondering about .
The Future Perfect team had already written a lot about the benefits of giving people money , so it was exciting to see cash transfers become part of one of the most consequential economic relief bills in history .
4 ) Why you ’ re unlikely to get the coronavirus from runners or cyclists by @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a lot of people were panicking about whether runners and cyclists were going to give them Covid-19 , especially after a “ study ” ( which contained no input from epidemiologists or virologists and was not peer-reviewed ) implied that it was a serious risk .
I wanted to explain why this is not generally something we need to freak out about .
So I laid out three factors that help lower risk in any encounter — increased distance , decreased duration , and good ventilation — and noted that being outdoors helps @ @ @ @ @ @ @ almost everyone knows that the virus has a much harder time spreading outdoors , but that wasn ’ t common knowledge back in April .
( I also worked with the Vox video team to explain this ; our video has been viewed over 4 million times . )
5 ) It ’ s not overreacting to prepare for coronavirus .
Here ’ s how .
by Kelsey Piper Kelsey published this article way back on February 28 , weeks before lockdowns began , and it did something very important : It gave @ @ @ @ @ @ @ not panic — without feeling like they were nuts for doing that .
She told us what precautions would be sensible for us to take ( avoiding public spaces , buying a couple weeks ’ worth of food ) and what would be overkill ( trying to figure out how to survive if the electricity or water were to go off ) .
And I appreciate how she normalized our collective anxiety : “ Coronavirus paranoia , if you ’ re experiencing some , isn ’ t silly or unreasonable — it ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of coming to grips with a significant problem.
” Broadly , Future Perfect emphasized early on that this pandemic could be a huge deal and that preparing was not an overreaction ; it ’ s a stance that sadly ended up being vindicated .
6 ) Quarantine has changed us — and it ’ s not all bad by Sigal Samuel The pandemic has altered us .
Although we ’ ve all missed normal life , many of us have also realized that some things about normal life weren ’ t that great @ @ @ @ @ @ @ quarantine life that are worth preserving .
I asked Vox readers to tell me which habits they ’ d acquired in quarantine that they wanted to maintain .
More than 100 people responded across the globe .
They wanted to keep reducing consumerism , putting less pressure on themselves , and donating or volunteering more , among other things .
As we close out the year , it ’ s worth reflecting on these resolutions and making a plan for how we ’ re going to carry them out in 2021 .
By @ @ @ @ @ @ @ leading to massive layoffs , and US unemployment claims shot up to record levels .
Dylan explained to frantic American readers that Congress passed , and President Trump signed into law , new legislation that sought to respond to the crisis .
Included in the package were an extra $ 600 per week of unemployment benefits for up to four months , a new relief program for the self-employed ( typically ineligible for jobless benefits ) , and incentives for work-sharing , which offered an alternative to layoffs by covering the lost wages @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
8 ) Sending Americans checks is an old idea that ’ s finally going mainstream by Dylan Matthews This was Dylan ’ s step-back piece noting that it ’ s remarkable that cash quickly became the preferred economic response to the coronavirus .
He traced the winding path for the idea of direct cash transfers , which had been on the fringes of the policy discourse for years , and celebrated the people who “ created a political environment where the previously unthinkable now feels inevitable.
” 9 ) A one-page , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ home by Kelsey Piper I remember scanning this handy list back in March !
Kelsey told us what to buy so we ’ d be prepared to hunker down for a while , from shelf-stable food to hobby items .
Reading this was also the first time I ever heard of a pulse oximeter , an item that later became a very popular pandemic purchase .
10 ) Why we should be careful comparing the Covid-19 coronavirus outbreak to the 1918 Spanish flu by Dylan Matthews The 1918 flu killed at least 17 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ as 100 million .
Covid-19 has so far killed around 1.67 million people .
Although the Covid-19 death toll is , tragically , sure to rise before we see the end of this pandemic , it seems very unlikely it ’ ll reach the staggering proportions of the 1918 flu .
That ’ s essentially what Dylan predicted in this comparative look at the two pandemics .
He pointed out that the global society of 1918 was “ much more primitive when it came to medicine and public health than the world of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ reason to worry and take all precautions today , we should keep this pandemic ’ s effects in perspective .
11 ) Taiwan has millions of visitors from China and only 45 coronavirus cases .
Here ’ s how .
by Kelsey Piper Noticing in March that Taiwan had one of the world ’ s best coronavirus containment track records , Kelsey asked a simple question : What is Taiwan doing right , and can we copy them ?
She did a Q & A with Stanford health policy researcher Jason Wang , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ items of Taiwan ’ s , like travel bans , quarantines , surveillance steps , and social distancing .
The US ended up putting some of these lessons to use .
12 ) How to make this winter not totally suck , according to psychologists by Sigal Samuel Among our most popular articles , this is the only one that wasn ’ t published early in the pandemic .
I wrote it in the lead-up to winter , and I think the fact that it ’ s been read some half-million times speaks @ @ @ @ @ @ @ really dreading the bleak months ahead .
I ’ m sorry it ’ s been such a hard year , and I hope the psychologists ’ advice that I presented in this article can help you cope ( I can honestly say it ’ s helped me ) .
Please continue doing your best to stay hopeful and safe , and to keep others that way too .
With vaccines starting to be administered , we can see the light at the end of the pandemic tunnel .
And with any luck , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ write happier stories for you in 2021 .
Sign up for the Future Perfect newsletter .
Twice a week , you ’ ll get a roundup of ideas and solutions for tackling our biggest challenges : improving public health , decreasing human and animal suffering , easing catastrophic risks , and — to put it simply — getting better at doing good

Here at Future Perfect, it’s tradition to cap off each year by presenting a list of the articles that you all read the most. In the past, that’s included stories on everything from artificial intelligence to plant-based meat. And while we still covered those topics this year, our team early in the year realized we’d need to pivot to in-depth coverage of the one topic you all were reading a lot about.
Pandemics and other catastrophic risks to humanity have always been topics of interest for our section. Indeed, one of the feature pieces in the launch week of Future Perfect in fall 2018 was by former Obama Ebola czar — and now Biden chief of staff — Ron Klain on how the US was not prepared for the next big pandemic. His piece, and our coverage warning about the growing risk of a pandemic, has proved prescient.
Without further ado, here are our most-read pieces of 2020. I’m focusing on articles written by the core Future Perfect team (Kelsey Piper, Dylan Matthews, and me), though other Vox writers also contributed amazing work to our section.
1) 11 charts that explain the coronavirus pandemic by Dylan Matthews
It will perhaps come as no great shock that all our most-read articles of the year were about Covid-19 and its repercussions. Many — like this Dylan Matthews piece — were published at the beginning of the pandemic, when everyone was freaking out and frantically searching for information.
Dylan presented a ton of info in a really easy-to-digest format: 11 charts that shed light on everything from how fast the virus was spreading, to how contagious it is, to who’s likeliest to die from it.
2) Why we’re not overreacting to the coronavirus, in one chart by Kelsey Piper and Christina Animashaun
In late March, when there were only about 35,000 confirmed cases of Covid-19 in the US, some Americans looked around at all the school and office closures and said the country was overreacting. Kelsey explained an important point at a crucial early juncture: When we’re looking at case rates, we’re really looking at the rates from about two weeks ago, because there’s a lag between when people get infected and when the infections show up in test results.
“You have to take steps that appear in the moment to be an exceptional overreaction — because by the time it looks like the steps you’re taking are appropriate, it will have been too late,” she wrote.
3) The $1,200 coronavirus checks, explained by Dylan Matthews
When the Trump administration finally signed a stimulus bill into law to respond to the economic downturn brought on by the pandemic, cash-strapped Americans were desperate to know how it would work. Who would get the checks? Would the middle class get more than poorer people? Would rich people still get big checks?
Dylan explained the economic policy that everyone was wondering about. The Future Perfect team had already written a lot about the benefits of giving people money, so it was exciting to see cash transfers become part of one of the most consequential economic relief bills in history.
4) Why you’re unlikely to get the coronavirus from runners or cyclists by Sigal Samuel
I wrote this article because a lot of people were panicking about whether runners and cyclists were going to give them Covid-19, especially after a “study” (which contained no input from epidemiologists or virologists and was not peer-reviewed) implied that it was a serious risk.
I wanted to explain why this is not generally something we need to freak out about. So I laid out three factors that help lower risk in any encounter — increased distance, decreased duration, and good ventilation — and noted that being outdoors helps us with all three. Nowadays, almost everyone knows that the virus has a much harder time spreading outdoors, but that wasn’t common knowledge back in April. (I also worked with the Vox video team to explain this; our video has been viewed over 4 million times.)
Kelsey published this article way back on February 28, weeks before lockdowns began, and it did something very important: It gave reasonable people permission to prepare — but not panic — without feeling like they were nuts for doing that. She told us what precautions would be sensible for us to take (avoiding public spaces, buying a couple weeks’ worth of food) and what would be overkill (trying to figure out how to survive if the electricity or water were to go off).
And I appreciate how she normalized our collective anxiety: “Coronavirus paranoia, if you’re experiencing some, isn’t silly or unreasonable — it’s part of the totally normal process of coming to grips with a significant problem.” Broadly, Future Perfect emphasized early on that this pandemic could be a huge deal and that preparing was not an overreaction; it’s a stance that sadly ended up being vindicated.
6) Quarantine has changed us — and it’s not all bad by Sigal Samuel
The pandemic has altered us. Although we’ve all missed normal life, many of us have also realized that some things about normal life weren’t that great — and there are certain things about quarantine life that are worth preserving.
I asked Vox readers to tell me which habits they’d acquired in quarantine that they wanted to maintain. More than 100 people responded across the globe. They wanted to keep reducing consumerism, putting less pressure on themselves, and donating or volunteering more, among other things. As we close out the year, it’s worth reflecting on these resolutions and making a plan for how we’re going to carry them out in 2021.
7) The coronavirus unemployment insurance plan, explained by Dylan Matthews
By late March, the pandemic was already leading to massive layoffs, and US unemployment claims shot up to record levels. Dylan explained to frantic American readers that Congress passed, and President Trump signed into law, new legislation that sought to respond to the crisis. Included in the package were an extra $600 per week of unemployment benefits for up to four months, a new relief program for the self-employed (typically ineligible for jobless benefits), and incentives for work-sharing, which offered an alternative to layoffs by covering the lost wages of workers whose hours had been cut.
8) Sending Americans checks is an old idea that’s finally going mainstream by Dylan Matthews
This was Dylan’s step-back piece noting that it’s remarkable that cash quickly became the preferred economic response to the coronavirus. He traced the winding path for the idea of direct cash transfers, which had been on the fringes of the policy discourse for years, and celebrated the people who “created a political environment where the previously unthinkable now feels inevitable.”
9) A one-page, printable guide for preparing to shelter at home by Kelsey Piper
I remember scanning this handy list back in March! Kelsey told us what to buy so we’d be prepared to hunker down for a while, from shelf-stable food to hobby items. Reading this was also the first time I ever heard of a pulse oximeter, an item that later became a very popular pandemic purchase.
10) Why we should be careful comparing the Covid-19 coronavirus outbreak to the 1918 Spanish flu by Dylan Matthews
The 1918 flu killed at least 17 million people, and maybe as many as 100 million. Covid-19 has so far killed around 1.67 million people. Although the Covid-19 death toll is, tragically, sure to rise before we see the end of this pandemic, it seems very unlikely it’ll reach the staggering proportions of the 1918 flu.
That’s essentially what Dylan predicted in this comparative look at the two pandemics. He pointed out that the global society of 1918 was “much more primitive when it came to medicine and public health than the world of today,” so while we have reason to worry and take all precautions today, we should keep this pandemic’s effects in perspective.
Noticing in March that Taiwan had one of the world’s best coronavirus containment track records, Kelsey asked a simple question: What is Taiwan doing right, and can we copy them? She did a Q&A with Stanford health policy researcher Jason Wang, who’d already outlined 124 action items of Taiwan’s, like travel bans, quarantines, surveillance steps, and social distancing. The US ended up putting some of these lessons to use.
12) How to make this winter not totally suck, according to psychologists by Sigal Samuel
Among our most popular articles, this is the only one that wasn’t published early in the pandemic. I wrote it in the lead-up to winter, and I think the fact that it’s been read some half-million times speaks to the fact that you all are really dreading the bleak months ahead.
I’m sorry it’s been such a hard year, and I hope the psychologists’ advice that I presented in this article can help you cope (I can honestly say it’s helped me). Please continue doing your best to stay hopeful and safe, and to keep others that way too. With vaccines starting to be administered, we can see the light at the end of the pandemic tunnel. And with any luck, the Future Perfect team will get to write happier stories for you in 2021.
Sign up for the Future Perfect newsletter. Twice a week, you’ll get a roundup of ideas and solutions for tackling our biggest challenges: improving public health, decreasing human and animal suffering, easing catastrophic risks, and — to put it simply — getting better at doing good