vox--2020-10-20--The battle for Latino voters in Arizona and Florida, explained

In early September , Democrats picked up signs of a worrying new weakness in Joe Biden ’ s coalition : Latino voters .
Nationally , Trump was polling 2 points higher among Latinos than he did in 2016 .
A series of polls released in September suggested that he and Biden were neck-and-neck among Latino voters in Florida , where Trump had been trying to woo conservative Cuban Americans and Venezuelans .
And it seemed that a subset of Latino men were gravitating toward Trump in Arizona .
The Latino vote in America often defies simple explanations .
But these @ @ @ @ @ @ @ could be the difference between winning and losing in tight contests — not just in Florida and Arizona , but in Michigan , Wisconsin , Pennsylvania , and North Carolina .
It was clear that the Biden campaign had “ work to do ” with Latinos , senior adviser Symone Sanders said on September 13 .
Democrats sounded the alarm in the media , again and again .
“ It seems like the Latino vote is not being taken seriously , ” Chuck Rocha , a former senior campaign adviser for Vermont Sen. @ @ @ @ @ @ @ time .
“ Latino organizations are still not being funded to get out the vote and to maximize our input .
Why are we spending 99 cents of every dollar on white suburban voters and not on Black or brown voters ?
” As Biden ’ s poll numbers have improved , he ’ s caught up at least somewhat among Hispanics ( a term that is often used interchangeably with “ Latino ” but refers specifically to anyone who descended from Spanish-speaking populations , as opposed to people of Latin American origin @ @ @ @ @ @ @ now has support of 63 percent of Latinos nationally , according to an October 14 Latino Decisions poll — roughly on par with Hillary Clinton ’ s performance in 2016 , though still short of the 71 percent of their support for President Barack Obama in 2012 .
( Some other surveys have shown a persistent gap for Biden compared to Hillary Clinton ’ s Latino support . )
Recent polls also signal that he ’ s also gaining ground among Arizona and Florida Latinos specifically but still isn ’ t quite where @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Any erosion should be concerning for Democrats .
Latinos are the nation ’ s largest and fastest-growing contingent of nonwhite voters , and the Democratic coalition has historically depended on their overwhelming support .
To take Florida — Trump ’ s adopted home and a historical bellwether of who has won presidential contests — Democrats need to run up big margins in diverse , heavily Latino districts from Palm Beach to Miami , where Biden has been underperforming compared to previous candidates .
As in previous years , Florida is the narrowest contest @ @ @ @ @ @ @ at stake and a robust infrastructure to handle mail-in ballots , it could be a source of clarity about the winner on election night .
Arizona , which has 11 electoral votes , is another top prize for Trump and a state that the Republican candidate has carried every year but one since 1952 .
But large Latino populations of predominantly Mexican origin in districts encompassing Tucson , Phoenix , and Maricopa County could help flip the state , if Biden can inspire them to show up in the numbers necessary and overcome @ @ @ @ @ @ @ particular .
“ If we allow a narrative to take shape that somehow the issues of concern to this growing community are not prioritized , then we risk backsliding in the years to come , ” Julián Castro , who ran against Biden in the primary , told the Washington Post .
Trump sought to pick up Latino votes as Biden delayed outreach During the primaries , Biden had a poor showing among Latinos relative to Sanders , especially in states where Latinos make up a large portion of the electorate , including @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Critics of Biden ’ s strategy argued he had neglected the Latino vote , failing to advertise early and often in Spanish-language media , show up for in-person outreach in Latino communities , or deliver a major address speaking to the concerns of Latino voters directly .
And Biden ’ s Latino outreach efforts were slow even after he secured the nomination , ramping up only in late August .
By then , the Trump campaign had spent months investing heavily in eroding Biden ’ s margins in Florida , casting him as @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of Latinos from failed socialist regimes .
( Biden has run as a center-left moderate , and even Sanders ’ s brand of democratic socialism has little relationship to the regimes in Cuba and Venezuela . )
Among a subset of Latinos — whose political leanings vary across gender , generation , country of origin , and how long they have lived in the US — Trump might be an attractive option .
Latinos don ’ t reliably back Democrats in the kinds of overwhelming numbers that Black voters do , and a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ third right now ) identify as Republicans .
In Florida , Latinos ’ political leanings are particularly diverse , with populations hailing from Cuba , Puerto Rico , Colombia , and Mexico and from other parts of Latin America .
Democrats have struggled to make inroads among the Cuban American community , which has historically leaned more Republican than Latinos from other countries of origin , embittered by John F. Kennedy ’ s withdrawal of support for an operation against dictator Fidel Castro at Cuba ’ s Bay of Pigs decades ago .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ have permeated Florida Latinos ’ WhatsApp chats , Facebook feeds , and radio programs , falsely claiming , for example , that Biden has a pedophilia problem .
Trump ’ s Spanish-language ads , which began airing in Florida as early as June , liken Biden to ruthless Latin American caudillos like Castro and Hugo Chávez and Nicolás Maduro of Venezuela .
One 30-second ad , narrated by a Cuban actress , paints Biden and the Democrats as extremists , playing images of Cuban refugee flights , a 2015 photo of Biden with @ @ @ @ @ @ @ flag emblazoned with an image of Che Guevara , the communist Cuban revolutionary : Trump has pursued policies designed to keep Venezuelan refugees out of the US .
But the ad portrays him as an ally of Latinos for earning the support of the CEO of Goya Foods , the nation ’ s largest Hispanic-owned food company , which Democrats consequently sought to boycott .
“ We sacrificed so much to be free and respected , ” the narrator says in Spanish .
“ Joe Biden and the Democrats are too extreme .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ to defend us.
” Biden was still fighting that narrative in early October , saying , “ I ’ m the guy who ran against a socialist ” at a campaign event in Miami on October 5 .
But for some voters , the characterization has stuck : Biden ’ s September crisis among Latino voters in Florida might have been overstated .
The former vice president trailed in three polls in the state , but by less than the margin of error .
And the Latino sample size of each poll was @ @ @ @ @ @ @ distorted the results .
Casting a wide net is particularly necessary in Florida in order to accurately capture voters of Cuban , Puerto Rican , Colombian , and Mexican descent and from other parts of Latin America .
So it ’ s possible the polls had overstated the depths of Biden ’ s crisis among Latinos , Michael Jones-Correa , a professor of political science at the University of Pennsylvania , said .
“ I think the polling in Florida on Latinos has not been great , ” he said .
“ I @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of weight on it.
” Another September 4 poll by the Democratic firm Equis Research showed Biden with a 16-point lead , and veteran Florida Democratic political strategist Steven Schale told the Washington Post he found that poll credible .
On September 15 , Biden made his first visit of the general election to Florida with the mission of making his case to Latino voters .
He criticized Trump ’ s policies on immigration , his abandonment of Puerto Ricans in the aftermath of Hurricane Maria , and his failures to protect workers @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a disproportionate number of Latinos nationwide .
He made subsequent visits to the state on October 5 and 13 , stopping in Miami ’ s Little Havana neighborhood .
More recent Florida polls show Biden leading among Latinos — earning 52 percent support in a September 28 Univision poll , 58 percent in an October 5 New York Times-Siena College poll , and 55 percent in an October 14 Latino Decisions poll .
But he ’ s still trailing Hillary Clinton ’ s margin of victory among Hispanics : She won 62 percent @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , according to exit polls .
College-educated Hispanics in the state appear to be an enduring weak spot for the former vice president .
Carlos Odio , the co-founder of Equis , said in a press call that Biden still might win the state if he can do as well with white voters as he was polling during the summer , regardless of his performance with Latino voters , according to his firm ’ s simulations .
But if Biden doesn ’ t maintain those numbers with white voters , his path to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ from Latinos , including Cuban Americans , who backed him 52 percent to 35 in the Latino Decisions poll .
“ He needs to get over the 60 percent threshold of [ total ] Latino support , ” Odio said .
“ To get there , he will need to maximize his support among non-Cuban Hispanic voters , even if he earns a high level of support from Cubans.
” Latinos could help Biden flip Arizona — but men are a soft spot Biden is counting on Latino support to win in Arizona @ @ @ @ @ @ @ percent of the Latino vote — the same percentage that Sen. Kyrsten Sinema , the first Democrat to win a Senate seat in Arizona in decades , won in her 2018 race .
Most Latinos in Arizona are of Mexican descent , and Trump has openly derided Mexicans while pursuing immigration policies designed to keep them out of the US .
On the campaign trail in 2016 , he claimed the US needed to keep out “ bad hombres ” from Mexico , suggested that Mexicans were overwhelmingly criminals , and promised his @ @ @ @ @ @ @ big , beautiful wall ” across the entire southern border .
And in the years since the 2016 election , racial justice has become a top motivating issue for young Latino voters generally .
But Trump has nevertheless tried to make inroads among Latinos in Arizona , making five trips to Phoenix over the course of the 2020 campaign to make his case .
His supporters cite his business policies , from reducing corporate taxes to deregulation , and conservative social values , including his opposition to abortion , as reasons they are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a trend emerged in Arizona that didn ’ t bode well for Biden : Trump ’ s support among Latinos has actually grown by 8 percent since 2019 , and the most significant boost has come from Latino men under the age of 50 , a mid-September Equis poll found .
Trump also appears to have generated particular interest among some young Latino men .
Rocha , who led Sanders ’ s Latino outreach efforts , told Vox in early September that he had observed in focus groups commissioned by Nuestro PAC , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ outreach , that Latino men were a “ soft spot.
” “ They just weren ’ t as convinced [ as women ] about Joe Biden , ” he said .
“ Some of this ‘ law and order ’ stuff , about having safe streets for your kids and your family , works with Latino men .
Not a majority of them .
Not even 30 percent .
But he [ Trump ] only needs to skim off 4 or 5 percent of Latino men , and it changes the entire electorate.
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ men is rooted in his machismo .
As the New York Times ’ s Jennifer Medina writes , they may be drawn to him because he is “ forceful , wealthy and , most important , unapologetic .
In a world where at any moment someone might be attacked for saying the wrong thing , he says the wrong thing all the time and does not bother with self-flagellation.
” That ’ s not entirely surprising : Across nearly every demographic group , Trump performs better among men than he does among women @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the Latino community is actually higher than it is within the Latino community , Jones-Correa said .
“ There is a gender gap , ” he said .
“ But it ’ s a bit more muted than within the general public .
I wouldn ’ t overemphasize the gender gap here as something more profound for the Latino community.
” Still , Biden is currently performing well among white voters in the state — but he still needs Latinos to win , Odio said .
Biden has a 4-point edge on average @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and a Biden also has a sizable lead among Latinos , who backed him 62-29 percent in the Equis poll .
That ’ s roughly on par with Clinton ’ s performance in 2016 , but still short of the campaign ’ s goal .
“ We are urging folks not to be complacent , but ... to push for those levels now , so that we don ’ t find that it ’ s too late in October , ” Odio said .
Biden is pushing to win in Florida and Arizona @ @ @ @ @ @ @ than other ethnic groups .
That could be to Biden ’ s advantage as his campaign has substantially ramped up its outreach efforts in the Latino community , particularly in Florida , in the final weeks before Election Day .
“ Progressives consistently get in this boat where we ’ re a month away from Election Day and there ’ s a sudden realization that we ’ ve got to spend big in Florida , ” Tory Gavito , president of the Democratic donor group Way to Win , said .
“ It @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Democratic establishment.
” Biden has also hired a slew of new campaign staffers in Florida and in Arizona to support his outreach efforts , including a veteran political operative who handled Spanish-language media for Democrat Andrew Gillum ’ s 2018 gubernatorial run in Florida .
And his campaign , which had a record fundraising bump in September , has been pouring money into reaching out to voters virtually in the interest of protecting campaign staff and the public amid the pandemic .
( Trump , on the other hand , has hosted indoor @ @ @ @ @ @ @ starting to see in the data that more people are reporting they ’ re being contacted , and more people are reporting seeing and hearing positive news about Biden , so I don ’ t think we ’ re behind any sort of marker , ” Matt Barreto , the co-founder of the polling firm Latino Decisions and a pollster for the Biden campaign , said .
The campaign says being unable to canvass in person amid the pandemic hasn ’ t put Biden at a significant disadvantage among young Latinos , who @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is exceptionally young , ” Barreto said .
“ It ’ s a population that ’ s already in social media , in digital , on texting .
And so for a high percentage of people , this is a natural transition for the campaign — to be able to continue that sort of outreach in a medium where lots of Latinos are already living.
” Among older Latinos and immigrants , the campaign is also seeing high rates of television viewership , Barreto said .
Biden has consequently outspent Trump in Spanish-language @ @ @ @ @ @ @ margin of $ 6.7 million to $ 4.9 million across heavily Latino cities including Miami , Orlando , and Phoenix .
He has also topped Trump ’ s Spanish-language radio ads , investing about $ 885,000 compared to Trump ’ s $ 32,500 .
His messaging is consistent , but delivered in different accents designed to microtarget Latino populations across the country : In Phoenix , it ’ s a Mexican accent , whereas in Miami , it ’ s Cuban .
One ad , titled “ A Good Plan , ” says @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , in which Latinos have suffered immensely , and if elected , Biden would deliver much-needed aid to their communities : Biden surrogates are also pouring dollars into ads targeting Latinos .
Former New York City Mayor Mike Bloomberg underwrote a $ 13.4 million ad buy in Florida with Priorities USA Action and Latino Victory Fund designed to air in both Spanish and English .
Priorities USA and People for the American Way also announced smaller , six-figure buys in Arizona media markets .
“ President Trump has fueled division in our country @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Hispanic community , ” Bloomberg said in a statement at the time .
“ I ’ m supporting Latino Victory Fund and Priorities USA Action to persuade and mobilize as many voters as possible and make sure that Hispanic voices are heard — and their votes counted.
” Indeed , there ’ s no question that the investment in the Latino vote has been substantial over the past month .
It has resulted in what appears to be significant growth in his support among Latinos , though still not quite reaching the thresholds @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
There may still be a window of opportunity for Biden to sway more voters at this late stage , but it ’ s not clear whether continuing to inundate them with more TV and radio ads will make a difference .
Fernand Amandi , a Miami-based Democratic strategist who produced ads for President Barack Obama in 2012 , has questioned whether that strategy will continue to pay dividends for Biden .
“ If we are not there already , we are quickly approaching the point of diminishing returns , ” Amandi told @ @ @ @ @ @ @ have already received their first mail-in ballots , Biden is running out of time to change their minds .
He is nevertheless continuing to make his case .
“ More than any other time , the Hispanic community , Latino community holds in the palm of their hand the destiny of this country , ” Biden said during an event in Kissimmee , Florida , last month .
“ You can decide the direction of this country.
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In early September, Democrats picked up signs of a worrying new weakness in Joe Biden’s coalition: Latino voters.
Nationally, Trump was polling 2 points higher among Latinos than he did in 2016. A series of polls released in September suggested that he and Biden were neck-and-neck among Latino voters in Florida, where Trump had been trying to woo conservative Cuban Americans and Venezuelans. And it seemed that a subset of Latino men were gravitating toward Trump in Arizona.
The Latino vote in America often defies simple explanations. But these gains for Trump, while small, could be the difference between winning and losing in tight contests — not just in Florida and Arizona, but in Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and North Carolina.
It was clear that the Biden campaign had “work to do” with Latinos, senior adviser Symone Sanders said on September 13. Democrats sounded the alarm in the media, again and again.
“It seems like the Latino vote is not being taken seriously,” Chuck Rocha, a former senior campaign adviser for Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, told Vox at the time. “Latino organizations are still not being funded to get out the vote and to maximize our input. Why are we spending 99 cents of every dollar on white suburban voters and not on Black or brown voters?”
As Biden’s poll numbers have improved, he’s caught up at least somewhat among Hispanics (a term that is often used interchangeably with “Latino” but refers specifically to anyone who descended from Spanish-speaking populations, as opposed to people of Latin American origin, including non-Spanish speakers).
Biden now has support of 63 percent of Latinos nationally, according to an October 14 Latino Decisions poll — roughly on par with Hillary Clinton’s performance in 2016, though still short of the 71 percent of their support for President Barack Obama in 2012. (Some other surveys have shown a persistent gap for Biden compared to Hillary Clinton’s Latino support.) Recent polls also signal that he’s also gaining ground among Arizona and Florida Latinos specifically but still isn’t quite where Democratic pollsters hoped he would be.
Any erosion should be concerning for Democrats. Latinos are the nation’s largest and fastest-growing contingent of nonwhite voters, and the Democratic coalition has historically depended on their overwhelming support.
To take Florida — Trump’s adopted home and a historical bellwether of who has won presidential contests — Democrats need to run up big margins in diverse, heavily Latino districts from Palm Beach to Miami, where Biden has been underperforming compared to previous candidates. As in previous years, Florida is the narrowest contest nationwide, but with 29 electoral votes at stake and a robust infrastructure to handle mail-in ballots, it could be a source of clarity about the winner on election night.
Arizona, which has 11 electoral votes, is another top prize for Trump and a state that the Republican candidate has carried every year but one since 1952. But large Latino populations of predominantly Mexican origin in districts encompassing Tucson, Phoenix, and Maricopa County could help flip the state, if Biden can inspire them to show up in the numbers necessary and overcome an apparent weakness among Latino men in particular.
“If we allow a narrative to take shape that somehow the issues of concern to this growing community are not prioritized, then we risk backsliding in the years to come,” Julián Castro, who ran against Biden in the primary, told the Washington Post.
Trump sought to pick up Latino votes as Biden delayed outreach
During the primaries, Biden had a poor showing among Latinos relative to Sanders, especially in states where Latinos make up a large portion of the electorate, including California, Nevada, and Texas.
Critics of Biden’s strategy argued he had neglected the Latino vote, failing to advertise early and often in Spanish-language media, show up for in-person outreach in Latino communities, or deliver a major address speaking to the concerns of Latino voters directly. And Biden’s Latino outreach efforts were slow even after he secured the nomination, ramping up only in late August.
By then, the Trump campaign had spent months investing heavily in eroding Biden’s margins in Florida, casting him as a socialist and capitalizing on the fears of Latinos from failed socialist regimes. (Biden has run as a center-left moderate, and even Sanders’s brand of democratic socialism has little relationship to the regimes in Cuba and Venezuela.)
Among a subset of Latinos — whose political leanings vary across gender, generation, country of origin, and how long they have lived in the US — Trump might be an attractive option. Latinos don’t reliably back Democrats in the kinds of overwhelming numbers that Black voters do, and a significant proportion of Latinos (about a third right now) identify as Republicans.
In Florida, Latinos’ political leanings are particularly diverse, with populations hailing from Cuba, Puerto Rico, Colombia, and Mexico and from other parts of Latin America. Democrats have struggled to make inroads among the Cuban American community, which has historically leaned more Republican than Latinos from other countries of origin, embittered by John F. Kennedy’s withdrawal of support for an operation against dictator Fidel Castro at Cuba’s Bay of Pigs decades ago.
What’s more, disinformation campaigns have permeated Florida Latinos’ WhatsApp chats, Facebook feeds, and radio programs, falsely claiming, for example, that Biden has a pedophilia problem. Trump’s Spanish-language ads, which began airing in Florida as early as June, liken Biden to ruthless Latin American caudillos like Castro and Hugo Chávez and Nicolás Maduro of Venezuela.
One 30-second ad, narrated by a Cuban actress, paints Biden and the Democrats as extremists, playing images of Cuban refugee flights, a 2015 photo of Biden with Maduro in Brazil, and a red flag emblazoned with an image of Che Guevara, the communist Cuban revolutionary:
Trump has pursued policies designed to keep Venezuelan refugees out of the US. But the ad portrays him as an ally of Latinos for earning the support of the CEO of Goya Foods, the nation’s largest Hispanic-owned food company, which Democrats consequently sought to boycott.
“We sacrificed so much to be free and respected,” the narrator says in Spanish. “Joe Biden and the Democrats are too extreme. ... [He] is too weak to defend us.”
Biden was still fighting that narrative in early October, saying, “I’m the guy who ran against a socialist” at a campaign event in Miami on October 5. But for some voters, the characterization has stuck:
Little Havana, Miami politics in a nutshell. Translation to the Spanish below:
Trump supporter: "Go back to Cuba, you socialist! Since you like communism, go wash Raul Castro's feet."
Biden supporter: "You go back since I was born here! I'm not a socialist." https://t.co/ns1YrLcpdR — Marianna Sotomayor (@MariannaNBCNews) October 5, 2020
Biden’s September crisis among Latino voters in Florida might have been overstated. The former vice president trailed in three polls in the state, but by less than the margin of error. And the Latino sample size of each poll was also relatively small, which could have distorted the results. Casting a wide net is particularly necessary in Florida in order to accurately capture voters of Cuban, Puerto Rican, Colombian, and Mexican descent and from other parts of Latin America.
So it’s possible the polls had overstated the depths of Biden’s crisis among Latinos, Michael Jones-Correa, a professor of political science at the University of Pennsylvania, said.
“I think the polling in Florida on Latinos has not been great,” he said. “I wouldn’t put a huge amount of weight on it.”
Another September 4 poll by the Democratic firm Equis Research showed Biden with a 16-point lead, and veteran Florida Democratic political strategist Steven Schale told the Washington Post he found that poll credible.
On September 15, Biden made his first visit of the general election to Florida with the mission of making his case to Latino voters. He criticized Trump’s policies on immigration, his abandonment of Puerto Ricans in the aftermath of Hurricane Maria, and his failures to protect workers from the coronavirus, which has killed a disproportionate number of Latinos nationwide. He made subsequent visits to the state on October 5 and 13, stopping in Miami’s Little Havana neighborhood.
More recent Florida polls show Biden leading among Latinos — earning 52 percent support in a September 28 Univision poll, 58 percent in an October 5 New York Times-Siena College poll, and 55 percent in an October 14 Latino Decisions poll. But he’s still trailing Hillary Clinton’s margin of victory among Hispanics: She won 62 percent of Hispanics but still lost the state, according to exit polls. College-educated Hispanics in the state appear to be an enduring weak spot for the former vice president.
Carlos Odio, the co-founder of Equis, said in a press call that Biden still might win the state if he can do as well with white voters as he was polling during the summer, regardless of his performance with Latino voters, according to his firm’s simulations. But if Biden doesn’t maintain those numbers with white voters, his path to victory would substantially narrow without robust support from Latinos, including Cuban Americans, who backed him 52 percent to 35 in the Latino Decisions poll.
“He needs to get over the 60 percent threshold of [total] Latino support,” Odio said. “To get there, he will need to maximize his support among non-Cuban Hispanic voters, even if he earns a high level of support from Cubans.”
Latinos could help Biden flip Arizona — but men are a soft spot
Biden is counting on Latino support to win in Arizona this year, aiming to win 70 percent of the Latino vote — the same percentage that Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, the first Democrat to win a Senate seat in Arizona in decades, won in her 2018 race.
Most Latinos in Arizona are of Mexican descent, and Trump has openly derided Mexicans while pursuing immigration policies designed to keep them out of the US.
On the campaign trail in 2016, he claimed the US needed to keep out “bad hombres” from Mexico, suggested that Mexicans were overwhelmingly criminals, and promised his supporters that he would build a “big, beautiful wall” across the entire southern border. And in the years since the 2016 election, racial justice has become a top motivating issue for young Latino voters generally.
But Trump has nevertheless tried to make inroads among Latinos in Arizona, making five trips to Phoenix over the course of the 2020 campaign to make his case. His supporters cite his business policies, from reducing corporate taxes to deregulation, and conservative social values, including his opposition to abortion, as reasons they are drawn to him.
In September, a trend emerged in Arizona that didn’t bode well for Biden: Trump’s support among Latinos has actually grown by 8 percent since 2019, and the most significant boost has come from Latino men under the age of 50, a mid-September Equis poll found.
Trump also appears to have generated particular interest among some young Latino men. Rocha, who led Sanders’s Latino outreach efforts, told Vox in early September that he had observed in focus groups commissioned by Nuestro PAC, a Democratic super PAC focused on Latino outreach, that Latino men were a “soft spot.”
“They just weren’t as convinced [as women] about Joe Biden,” he said. “Some of this ‘law and order’ stuff, about having safe streets for your kids and your family, works with Latino men. Not a majority of them. Not even 30 percent. But he [Trump] only needs to skim off 4 or 5 percent of Latino men, and it changes the entire electorate.”
Trump’s allure among these men is rooted in his machismo. As the New York Times’s Jennifer Medina writes, they may be drawn to him because he is “forceful, wealthy and, most important, unapologetic. In a world where at any moment someone might be attacked for saying the wrong thing, he says the wrong thing all the time and does not bother with self-flagellation.”
That’s not entirely surprising: Across nearly every demographic group, Trump performs better among men than he does among women. The gender gap among voters outside the Latino community is actually higher than it is within the Latino community, Jones-Correa said.
“There is a gender gap,” he said. “But it’s a bit more muted than within the general public. I wouldn’t overemphasize the gender gap here as something more profound for the Latino community.”
Still, Biden is currently performing well among white voters in the state — but he still needs Latinos to win, Odio said.
Biden has a 4-point edge on average in Arizona as of October 6, and a Biden also has a sizable lead among Latinos, who backed him 62-29 percent in the Equis poll.
That’s roughly on par with Clinton’s performance in 2016, but still short of the campaign’s goal.
“We are urging folks not to be complacent, but ... to push for those levels now, so that we don’t find that it’s too late in October,” Odio said.
Biden is pushing to win in Florida and Arizona
Latinos tend to remain undecided for longer than other ethnic groups. That could be to Biden’s advantage as his campaign has substantially ramped up its outreach efforts in the Latino community, particularly in Florida, in the final weeks before Election Day.
“Progressives consistently get in this boat where we’re a month away from Election Day and there’s a sudden realization that we’ve got to spend big in Florida,” Tory Gavito, president of the Democratic donor group Way to Win, said. “It’s a historic pattern within the Democratic establishment.”
Biden has also hired a slew of new campaign staffers in Florida and in Arizona to support his outreach efforts, including a veteran political operative who handled Spanish-language media for Democrat Andrew Gillum’s 2018 gubernatorial run in Florida. And his campaign, which had a record fundraising bump in September, has been pouring money into reaching out to voters virtually in the interest of protecting campaign staff and the public amid the pandemic. (Trump, on the other hand, has hosted indoor rallies.)
“I’m starting to see in the data that more people are reporting they’re being contacted, and more people are reporting seeing and hearing positive news about Biden, so I don’t think we’re behind any sort of marker,” Matt Barreto, the co-founder of the polling firm Latino Decisions and a pollster for the Biden campaign, said.
The campaign says being unable to canvass in person amid the pandemic hasn’t put Biden at a significant disadvantage among young Latinos, who are accessible online.
“Our population is exceptionally young,” Barreto said. “It’s a population that’s already in social media, in digital, on texting. And so for a high percentage of people, this is a natural transition for the campaign — to be able to continue that sort of outreach in a medium where lots of Latinos are already living.”
Among older Latinos and immigrants, the campaign is also seeing high rates of television viewership, Barreto said. Biden has consequently outspent Trump in Spanish-language television ads in recent months by a margin of $6.7 million to $4.9 million across heavily Latino cities including Miami, Orlando, and Phoenix. He has also topped Trump’s Spanish-language radio ads, investing about $885,000 compared to Trump’s $32,500.
His messaging is consistent, but delivered in different accents designed to microtarget Latino populations across the country: In Phoenix, it’s a Mexican accent, whereas in Miami, it’s Cuban.
One ad, titled “A Good Plan,” says the president has mishandled the ongoing pandemic, in which Latinos have suffered immensely, and if elected, Biden would deliver much-needed aid to their communities:
Biden surrogates are also pouring dollars into ads targeting Latinos. Former New York City Mayor Mike Bloomberg underwrote a $13.4 million ad buy in Florida with Priorities USA Action and Latino Victory Fund designed to air in both Spanish and English. Priorities USA and People for the American Way also announced smaller, six-figure buys in Arizona media markets.
“President Trump has fueled division in our country including through his relentless attacks on the Hispanic community,” Bloomberg said in a statement at the time. “I’m supporting Latino Victory Fund and Priorities USA Action to persuade and mobilize as many voters as possible and make sure that Hispanic voices are heard — and their votes counted.”
Indeed, there’s no question that the investment in the Latino vote has been substantial over the past month. It has resulted in what appears to be significant growth in his support among Latinos, though still not quite reaching the thresholds that would put Biden in safe territory.
There may still be a window of opportunity for Biden to sway more voters at this late stage, but it’s not clear whether continuing to inundate them with more TV and radio ads will make a difference.
Fernand Amandi, a Miami-based Democratic strategist who produced ads for President Barack Obama in 2012, has questioned whether that strategy will continue to pay dividends for Biden.
“If we are not there already, we are quickly approaching the point of diminishing returns,” Amandi told Politico.
And given that many Floridians have already received their first mail-in ballots, Biden is running out of time to change their minds. He is nevertheless continuing to make his case.
“More than any other time, the Hispanic community, Latino community holds in the palm of their hand the destiny of this country,” Biden said during an event in Kissimmee, Florida, last month. “You can decide the direction of this country.”


vox--2020-10-20--Europe’s new Covid-19 wave, explained

Europe’s new Covid-19 wave, explained

VIENNA — With new Covid-19 cases rising exponentially across the European continent , leaders are once again turning to social distancing mandates and business closures to halt the spread of the coronavirus .
There are curfews across England and France , limits on drinking in the Czech Republic and Belgium , and stricter mask requirements in Italy and Switzerland .
Here in the Austrian capital , where people can be seen panic-hoarding toilet paper again , Chancellor Sebastian Kurz has warned of a “ challenging autumn and winter ” ahead .
The country ’ s new anti-virus measures include limits @ @ @ @ @ @ @ while one particularly hard-hit town in the Salzburg area , Kuchl , has shut down .
So far , most of the restrictions stop short of country-wide stay-at-home orders , where people ’ s movements outside the home are curtailed and all nonessential businesses close .
But by Friday , both Wales and Ireland will be back in lockdowns that resemble last spring ’ s , while health officials in other countries with fast-spiraling outbreaks — such as the Czech Republic and England — are warning of more restrictions to come .
“ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ?
” Clare Wenham , an assistant professor of global health policy at the London School of Economics and Political Science ( LSE ) , asked of the UK , where the death rate from Covid-19 is among the highest in the world .
It ’ s because “ the government didn ’ t spend the last six to eight months investing and getting a good track , trace , and isolate system in place.
” For months , scientists and global health experts warned that European governments must build up coronavirus testing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ strict quarantine and isolation measures , ready hospitals for Covid-19 patients , protect the elderly and vulnerable , and , especially , get people to wear masks .
Taking these steps , said Anthony Costello , a professor of global health at University College London , avoids “ the bluntest weapon to control the epidemic ” — the lockdown .
Yet , with few exceptions , leaders did not adequately prepare .
Instead , there was complacency and denial .
When social distancing measures slowed coronavirus spread over the summer , politicians lifted @ @ @ @ @ @ @ economies .
They then failed to heed the warnings of scientists and doctors again — that small upticks in infections would eventually culminate in an exponential growth in cases , followed by increases in hospitalizations and deaths .
( A grim , similar pattern developed in the US . )
In the absence of stricter anti-virus measures now , Hans Kluge , the World Health Organization ’ s regional director for Europe , warned last week , daily mortality rates from Covid-19 could reach “ levels 4 to 5 times higher than what @ @ @ @ @ @ @ makes this wave even more challenging than the last : People have already endured the pain of lockdowns once .
They ’ re tired of the pandemic , and leaders in some cities and states are even fighting back against federally imposed measures .
If pandemic restrictions are abandoned , the new wave in Europe could rival the severity of the last one .
The springtime lockdowns around the world came with a level of economic , psychological , and social pain we haven ’ t seen since the Second World War .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ dramatically : They changed how they work , lost jobs , or risked their health to carry on .
They stayed away from loved ones , died alone , and delayed funerals .
They put off weddings , canceled holidays , and kept their kids home from school .
These sacrifices , at least in the short term , appeared to pay off : By early summer , the first coronavirus wave was largely under control , and related hospitalizations and deaths were declining .
But shortly after leaders began to lift the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , and , in many places , the virus started to move .
“ This idea was you lift all restrictions , and we ’ ll have our life back , ” Devi Sridhar , chair in global public health at the University of Edinburgh , told Vox .
“ But in no scenario do you lift restrictions and does life go back to how it was pre-Covid.
” In September , the new daily case counts in many European countries surpassed those reported during the first peak of the pandemic .
You @ @ @ @ @ @ @ from Our World in Data : To be sure , you can ’ t “ take the numbers today and place them on top of the earlier curve and assume it ’ s the same thing , ” as Flavia Riccardo , a researcher at the Italian National Institute of Health , told Vox in September .
That ’ s because this new peak can — in part — be explained by more robust testing across the continent : Health authorities in many countries are simply testing more than they were in March @ @ @ @ @ @ @ available or the indication for testing was limited .
But the expansion of testing doesn ’ t fully explain what ’ s happening .
As you can see in the next chart , the daily share of positive tests began increasing in July from a summer low .
This means health officials in many countries didn ’ t keep up with the predictable , post-summer increase in demand for testing — and therefore aren ’ t finding where new pockets of disease are spreading .
In other words , they ’ ve lost @ @ @ @ @ @ @ : Covid-19 hospitalizations are rising across Europe again .
It took a while to see hospitals fill up : The uptick in cases over the summer first affected mostly younger people , who are less susceptible to severe disease .
But by September , that younger group had spread the virus to their older friends , colleagues , and relatives .
And by mid-October , Covid-19 hospitalizations and ICU admissions were either high ( at a quarter of the spring pandemic peak ) or had increased compared to the previous week in 20 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ECDC .
And with more hospitalizations and ICU admissions come more Covid-19 deaths .
As you can see in this chart , the deaths per million so far are nowhere near the last peak .
“ Although we record 2 to 3 times more cases per day compared to the April peak , we still observe 5 times fewer deaths , ” the WHO ’ s Kluge noted in an October 15 update .
The doubling time for hospital admissions has also slowed down in Europe : it ’ s “ still 2 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ was in the spring , Kluge said .
And , thanks in part to improved treatment approaches , people have better odds of surviving when they are admitted to a hospital .
According to the Financial Times , in March , people over the age of 70 had a 50 percent chance of living ; by August , that number climbed to 74 percent .
Still , the increases in deaths have sparked renewed fears that the new wave is going to overwhelm hospital systems again — and once they ’ re overwhelmed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ keeping patients alive .
( At the height of Italy ’ s epidemic last March , doctors were forced to ration care while the army was drafted to help move corpses piling up in the outbreak ’ s epicenter . )
To stave off these nightmare scenarios , broader lockdown becomes inevitable .
The simple math of Covid-19 explains why .
As Tom Inglesby , the director of the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security , explained on Twitter : “ We have had [ 10 times ] the numbers of Covid deaths @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and that is with huge social distancing , masking and restrictive policies in place .
Without those things in place , the numbers of Covid deaths would have been many , many times higher.
” Or as Sridhar told Vox in September , “ If you see hospitals filling up and ICU beds full , [ politicians will ] have no choice but to implement some kind of lockdown unless you want your health system to collapse .
... You can ’ t have people dying in hospital doorways because they can ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s why countries are imposing social distancing measures anew — and why there may be more to come soon .
Let ’ s take a brief look at new measures in some of Europe ’ s coronavirus hot spots , sorted here by countries with the highest incidence in new cases over the past two weeks .
They range from mask mandates and curfews to lockdowns : • The Czech Republic , currently the country with the fastest-growing infection rate in Europe , went from around 100 new cases per day in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are planning new field hospitals for Covid-19 patients and warning about shortages of doctors .
The country also had to introduce partial lockdown measures : Schools have closed , along with bars and restaurants , while public gatherings are limited to six people .
Masks are required indoors in most public settings , where there ’ s no drinking allowed .
The country may impose a full lockdown in two weeks .
• In Belgium , the second-hardest-hit country in Europe after the Czech Republic , all bars and restaurants will close for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ curfew from midnight to 5 am , and no alcohol sales are allowed after 8 pm .
People are also asked to wear masks in crowded spaces .
• The Netherlands is in partial lockdown as of October 14 : Masks are required in public places , people are being asked to stay home as much as possible , public gatherings of more than four people are prohibited , sales of alcohol in the evening are banned , and bars , restaurants , and cafes are only allowed to serve takeout .
• @ @ @ @ @ @ @ curfew in Paris and eight other cities to “ put a brake on the spread of the virus , ” President Emmanuel Macron said in a public address on October 14 .
This means people in Marseille , Lyon , Lille , Saint-Etienne , Rouen , Toulouse , Grenoble , and Montpellier — as well as the capital — will have to stay home from 9 pm to 6 am , unless they have a valid reason for going out ( such as work or a medical emergency ) .
Large gatherings are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ masks are mandatory in enclosed public spaces .
• In the United Kingdom , people in London and seven other hard-hit areas are now banned from gathering indoors with individuals from other households .
Friends and family can still gather outdoors — but only in groups of up to six — and bars , pubs , and restaurants are on a 10 pm curfew .
The whole of the UK may also introduce a “ circuit breaker ” — a euphemism for a two-week whole-society lockdown to stop infections — very soon , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ starting October 23 and Northern Ireland has already closed schools .
• Spain , one of the first countries in Europe to see a dramatic second wave , put Madrid and nine other cities in a state of emergency .
This time , the lockdown involves banning nonessential travel , reducing hotel and restaurant capacity , imposing an 11 pm curfew , and limiting family and social gatherings to six people .
Catalonia , the region home to Barcelona , closed bars and restaurants .
• Ireland is heading back into lockdown : @ @ @ @ @ @ @ close and people are asked to once again stay home .
The main exceptions : outdoor exercise within 3 miles of home , and essential work .
• In Austria , the federal government is focused on restricting the size of gatherings : a maximum of six people are allowed to meet indoors , and a maximum of 12 outdoors , at places such as bars , restaurants , and sporting events .
But at least one community , where infections are rising rapidly , has already gone ahead with a lockdown .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ , and Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte gave local authorities the power to impose 9 pm curfews on public areas and limit opening hours at restaurants and group sizes .
( On October 18 , Conte framed these measures as a way of avoiding another national lockdown , “ which could severely compromise the economy.
” ) • European countries that currently aren ’ t as severely affected are also cracking down .
Germany imposed curfews , additional border checks , and restrictions on public gatherings , and one Bavarian town is in lockdown @ @ @ @ @ @ @ mandate — for indoor workplaces and crowded outdoor spaces — while Swedes are being encouraged to work from home .
Most of these restrictions are more limited than the national lockdowns we saw in the spring , but they may be followed by stricter measures .
And the most troubling part is that this was both predictable and preventable .
The first lockdowns were supposed to buy countries time to avoid more pain Just about everyone who has been watching this pandemic closely warned that , as the first set of lockdowns lifted @ @ @ @ @ @ @ summer , we ’ d see cases rise again .
But it wasn ’ t inevitable that cases would rise this much in Europe .
To understand how the new wave could have looked different , let ’ s contrast the German coronavirus situation with what ’ s happening in the UK .
Germany , which has consistently had a lower case and death rate than much of Europe , used the early days of the pandemic wisely : It quickly locked down , scaled up testing capacity , established a contact tracing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ local health authorities to tailor policies to meet their local needs , and put in place a system for isolation and quarantine of confirmed and suspected cases .
When local outbreaks have begun to grow swiftly , leaders reacted with localized lockdowns .
From the beginning of the pandemic , health authorities and politicians also listened to scientists , adapting policies as the evidence evolved .
Most recently , for example , the government in the southern state of Bavaria gave schools money to improve classroom ventilation ahead of the winter .
These @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to zero .
And when states across Germany relaxed social distancing measures this summer , cases started creeping back up — and they could still spike further .
But the country ’ s epidemic is so far growing at a slower rate compared to the rest of Europe , and on a per capita basis , the outbreak in Germany is still milder .
What ’ s more , the systems in place should also help Germans stay on top of where the virus is spreading , and more quickly snuff out new @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s what ’ s happened in South Korea , which launched a mass testing , tracing , and isolating program — powered by surveillance technology — even before its first major outbreak .
The country is now reporting only 50 new cases per day , and its numbers have stayed low for months .
“ Lockdowns only make sense if they ’ re followed by testing and tracing , ” Steven Hoffman , director of York University ’ s Global Strategy Lab , summed up .
“ Otherwise you ’ ve endured a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ benefit.
” Indeed , countries that didn ’ t use the lockdown , and post-lockdown , period as effectively are now faring worse in the second wave .
Look at the UK , which has one of the fastest-growing outbreaks in Europe .
Like the US , the UK government repeatedly failed to heed the advice of scientists and establish an effective testing , tracing , and isolating protocol .
For months , they waffled over whether to require face masks .
After the summer , testing shortfalls meant thousands of people couldn @ @ @ @ @ @ @ wanted to .
Today , most people still don ’ t get their test results in a timely manner ( in England , only 10 percent get results within 24 hours ) .
This means people with the virus may be going about their daily lives , potentially spreading it to others , before they know they ’ re positive .
There ’ s also little follow-up or support to ensure people actually isolate and quarantine , said University College London ’ s Anthony Costello .
“ In the progressive European countries like @ @ @ @ @ @ @ China , [ the government ] would pay your salary when you isolate .
And if you ’ re not working , there ’ s a proper sickness benefit , ” he said .
Britain has no such program .
Scientists “ have been saying testing , tracing , isolating hasn ’ t been working here .
The testing was wrong , the tracing was wrong , ” Costello added .
“ I ’ m realizing now nobody listens.
” Europe ’ s new coronavirus wave is a devastating , political failure — @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Make no mistake : The quasi-lockdowns in place already , and stricter measures possibly to come , are the result of a political failure .
“ It was understandable that countries imposed lockdowns in the initial weeks when countries first got hit and were quickly overwhelmed , ” said Adam Kamradt-Scott , a global health professor at the University of Sydney .
“ But six months on , countries should have sufficient systems in place to undertake the necessary contact tracing and have a range of other measures they can use to limit @ @ @ @ @ @ @ than looking to hard lockdowns as the answer.
” The lack of those systems is a failure that the public will have to keep paying for , said LSE ’ s Clare Wenham .
“ Unless governments crack [ testing , tracing , and isolating ] , we ’ re going to see these endless cycles of lockdowns every four to five months .
There ’ s no other way.
” In some cases , governments may not be able to revert to spring-style closures .
The highest court in Austria , for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ban on entering public places , and a tiered rollout for shops reopening according to their size , was partly unconstitutional .
Similar legal battles are unfolding at the city and state level in other countries in Europe .
But with disease spread out of control , economic activity may contract even without government lockdowns because people may start to voluntarily restrict their movements , according to an analysis from the International Monetary Fund .
“ When we looked backward at the economic impact of the pandemic in the first half of the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ lockdowns contributed to the economic contraction , ” said Damiano Sandri , an IMF analyst who has been studying the impact of the virus .
“ But economic activity also contracted because people got scared and didn ’ t go out as they would otherwise when infections increased.
” In other words , the social and economic toll of the pandemic isn ’ t only caused by lockdowns .
“ The damage is also done if you get a strong wave of infections , ” Sandri added , “ and people start dying.
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ have to restrict their hours or shutter altogether this winter .
More people will lose wages or lose their jobs .
And the economic toll of the pandemic has already been devastating — the worst recession since World War II .
“ The worst outcomes for governments are the repetitive lockdown , ” Wenham added .
“ It ’ s better to be in one lockdown longer and have one economic shock than have these rolling shocks for two years.
” As the cold weather sets in across the Northern Hemisphere , people @ @ @ @ @ @ @ loved ones again .
Parents will have to juggle work and child care , or choose between the two , again .
Older and sick people will have to endure another bout of isolation and loneliness , in some cases gasping their last breaths alone .
Or maybe pandemic fatigue will deepen : The public will behave differently this time around and resist coronavirus measures , helping the virus spread .
“ Decades from now , researchers may be talking about the ‘ pandemic generation ’ ” Researchers have been busy calculating the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ round of coronavirus lockdowns .
Cancer screenings dropped off dramatically in multiple countries .
Domestic violence soared , as did childhood malnutrition and mental health problems .
More people had heart attacks at home , delaying lifesaving visits to emergency rooms .
These are only the effects we can quantify right now , said Steven Woolf , a family medicine and population health professor at Virginia Commonwealth University , who has been tracking the rise in mortality from non-Covid causes in the US .
Woolf expects , in the years ahead , we @ @ @ @ @ @ @ more devastation than is currently visible , such as a surge in deaths from chronic conditions — like diabetes , congestive heart failure , and HIV — as a result of Covid-19 disruptions in health care .
The pandemic could also bring a “ spike in overdose deaths ” from loneliness and addiction services disruptions , and a long-term toll on childhood development .
“ Decades from now , researchers may be talking about the ‘ pandemic generation , ’ ” Woolf said , “ and some of the health effects they tolerated @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of this.
” This will be especially true for the poorest and most vulnerable among us .
Covid-related job losses , and even infections and deaths , have disproportionately affected low-income and minority groups around the world .
Blunt tools like city- or nationwide lockdowns only exacerbate those impacts , York ’ s Steven Hoffman said .
“ It ’ s easy for some people to lockdown , particularly when they ’ re able to work from home .
It ’ s far more difficult for those working in the service industry , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and might be living paycheck to paycheck , ” Hoffman added .
“ The story of this pandemic is that it ’ s been a grand revealer for the inequalities in our society.
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VIENNA — With new Covid-19 cases rising exponentially across the European continent and hospitals once again filling up, leaders are turning back to social distancing mandates and business closures to halt the spread of the virus.
There are curfews across England, Spain, Belgium, and France, stricter masking requirements in Greece and Switzerland, while the Czech Republic is effectively in lockdown again, closing most non-essential businesses, as are Wales and Ireland. Even Italy — Europe’s first and hardest-hit coronavirus hotspot — is putting bars and restaurants under curfew as of Monday, and shutting down gyms, swimming pools, cinemas, and theaters.
Here in the Austrian capital, where people can be seen panic-hoarding toilet paper again, Chancellor Sebastian Kurz has warned of a “challenging autumn and winter” ahead. The country’s new anti-virus measures include capping the size of public gatherings, while one particularly hard-hit town in the Salzburg area, Kuchl, has shut down.
“How could we possibly be here again?” Clare Wenham, an assistant professor of global health policy at the London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE), asked of the UK, where the death rate from Covid-19 is among the highest in the world. It’s because “the government didn’t spend the last six to eight months investing and getting a good track, trace, and isolate system in place.”
For months, scientists and health experts warned that governments must build up coronavirus testing and tracing capacity, put in place strict quarantine and isolation measures, ready hospitals for Covid-19 patients, protect the elderly and vulnerable, and, especially, get people to wear masks. Taking these steps, said Anthony Costello, a professor of global health at University College London, avoids “the bluntest weapon to control the epidemic”: the lockdown.
Yet, with few exceptions, leaders did not adequately prepare. Instead, there was complacency and denial. When social distancing measures slowed coronavirus spread over the summer, politicians lifted restrictions quickly in an effort to restart economies. They then failed to heed the warnings of scientists and doctors again — that small upticks in infections in August would eventually culminate in an exponential growth in cases, followed by increases in hospitalizations and deaths. (This grim pattern developed in the US, too.)
In the absence of stricter anti-virus measures now, Hans Kluge, the World Health Organization’s regional director for Europe, warned last week, daily mortality rates from Covid-19 could reach “levels 4 to 5 times higher than what we recorded in April.” And what makes this wave even more challenging than the last: People have already endured the pain of lockdowns once. They’re tired of the pandemic, and leaders in some cities and states are even fighting back against federally imposed measures. If pandemic restrictions are abandoned, the new wave in Europe could rival the severity of the last one.
Europe’s new coronavirus wave, explained
The springtime lockdowns around the world came with a level of economic, psychological, and social pain we haven’t seen since the Second World War. Millions of people saw their lives shift dramatically: They changed how they work, lost jobs, or risked their health to carry on. They stayed away from loved ones, died alone, and delayed funerals. They put off weddings, canceled holidays, and kept their kids home from school.
These sacrifices, at least in the short term, appeared to pay off: By early summer, the first coronavirus wave was largely under control, and related hospitalizations and deaths were declining. But shortly after leaders began to lift the pandemic restrictions, people started socializing again, and, in many places, the virus started to move.
“This idea was you lift all restrictions, and we’ll have our life back,” Devi Sridhar, chair in global public health at the University of Edinburgh, told Vox. “But in no scenario do you lift restrictions and does life go back to how it was pre-Covid.”
In September, the new daily case counts in many European countries surpassed those reported during the first peak of the pandemic. You can see the trends in this chart from Our World in Data:
To be sure, you can’t “take the numbers today and place them on top of the earlier curve and assume it’s the same thing,” as Flavia Riccardo, a researcher at the Italian National Institute of Health, told Vox in September. That’s because this new peak can — in part — be explained by more robust testing across the continent: Health authorities in many countries are simply testing more than they were in March, when tests either weren’t available or the indication for testing was limited.
But the expansion of testing doesn’t fully explain what’s happening. As you can see in the next chart, the daily share of positive tests began increasing in July from a summer low. This means health officials in many countries didn’t keep up with the predictable, post-summer increase in demand for testing — and therefore aren’t finding where new pockets of disease are spreading. In other words, they’ve lost control of their epidemics.
Also worrying: Covid-19 hospitalizations are rising across Europe again. It took a while to see hospitals fill up. The uptick in cases over the summer first affected mostly younger people, who are less susceptible to severe disease.
But by September, that younger group had spread the virus to their older friends, colleagues, and relatives. And by mid-October, Covid-19 hospitalizations and ICU admissions were either high (at a quarter of the spring pandemic peak) or had increased compared to the previous week in 20 countries in Europe, according to the ECDC. And with more hospitalizations and ICU admissions come more Covid-19 deaths.
As you can see in this chart, the deaths per million so far are nowhere near the last peak. “Although we record 2 to 3 times more cases per day compared to the April peak, we still observe 5 times fewer deaths,” the WHO’s Kluge noted in an October 15 update.
The doubling time for hospital admissions has also slowed down in Europe: it’s “still 2 to 3 times longer” than it was in the spring, Kluge said. And, thanks in part to improved treatment approaches, people have better odds of surviving a hospital admission. According to the Financial Times, in March, people over the age of 70 had a 50 percent chance of living; by August, that number climbed to 74 percent.
Still, the increases in deaths have sparked renewed fears that the new wave is going to overwhelm hospital systems again — and once they’re overwhelmed, doctors will have a tougher time keeping patients alive. (At the height of Italy’s epidemic last March, doctors were forced to ration care while the army was drafted to help move corpses piling up in the outbreak’s epicenter.)
To stave off these nightmare scenarios, broader lockdowns become inevitable. The simple math of Covid-19 explains why. As Tom Inglesby, the director of the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security, explained on Twitter: “We have had [10 times] the numbers of Covid deaths as compared to influenza last year, and that is with huge social distancing, masking and restrictive policies in place. Without those things in place, the numbers of Covid deaths would have been many, many times higher.”
So back to the answer to the opening question – is COVID now just like a strong flu? Not at all. COVID has far higher mortality. Most are still susceptible to it. It’s year round. We have no vaccine, and only dex as a highly valuable treatment. 16/x — Tom Inglesby (@T_Inglesby) October 19, 2020
Or as Sridhar told Vox in September, “If you see hospitals filling up and ICU beds full, [politicians will] have no choice but to implement some kind of lockdown unless you want your health system to collapse. ... You can’t have people dying in hospital doorways because they can’t get access to oxygen.”
That’s why countries are imposing social distancing measures anew — and why there may be more to come soon.
Europe’s new measures
Let’s take a brief look at new measures in some of Europe’s coronavirus hot spots, sorted here by countries with the highest incidence in new cases over the past two weeks. They range from mask mandates and curfews to lockdowns:
So far, most of the restrictions are more limited than the national lockdowns we saw in the spring, but the worst-hit countries — such as Czech Republic and Belgium — are shutting down entirely or threatening to. And the most troubling part is that this was both predictable and preventable.
The first lockdowns were supposed to buy countries time to avoid more pain
Just about everyone who has been watching this pandemic closely warned that, as the first set of lockdowns lifted and people started mingling indoors after the summer, we’d see cases rise again.
But it wasn’t inevitable that cases would rise this much in Europe. To understand how the new wave could have looked different, let’s contrast the German coronavirus situation with what’s happening in the UK.
Germany, which has consistently had a lower case and death rate than much of Europe, used the early days of the pandemic wisely: It quickly locked down, scaled up testing capacity, established a contact tracing network, made masks mandatory, empowered local health authorities to tailor policies to meet their local needs, and put in place a system for isolation and quarantine of confirmed and suspected cases. When local outbreaks have begun to grow swiftly, leaders reacted with localized lockdowns.
From the beginning of the pandemic, health authorities and politicians also listened to scientists, adapting policies as the evidence evolved. Most recently, for example, the government in the southern state of Bavaria gave schools money to improve classroom ventilation ahead of the winter.
Confirmed cases in the last 7 days per 100,000 people.
[Source @BBK_Bund] pic.twitter.com/9q3zwV2Og3 — Max Roser (@MaxCRoser) October 16, 2020
These measures didn’t bring Covid-19 cases to zero. And when states across Germany relaxed social distancing measures this summer, cases started creeping back up — and they could still spike further. But the country’s epidemic is so far growing at a slower rate compared to the rest of Europe, and on a per capita basis, the outbreak in Germany is still milder.
What’s more, the systems in place should also help Germans stay on top of where the virus is spreading, and more quickly snuff out new outbreaks when they arise.
That’s what’s happened in South Korea, where the government launched a mass testing, tracing, and isolating program — powered by surveillance technology — even before its first major outbreak. The country is now reporting only 50 new cases per day, and its numbers have stayed low for months.
“Lockdowns only make sense if they’re followed by testing and tracing,” Steven Hoffman, director of York University’s Global Strategy Lab, summed up. “Otherwise you’ve endured a painful experience without any longevity in its benefit.”
Indeed, countries that didn’t use the lockdown, and post-lockdown, period as effectively are now faring worse in the second wave. Consider the UK, which has one of the fastest-growing outbreaks in Europe. Like the US, the UK government repeatedly failed to heed the advice of scientists and establish an effective testing, tracing, and isolating protocol.
For months, they waffled over whether to require face masks. After the summer, testing shortfalls meant thousands of people couldn’t access Covid-19 diagnostics when they wanted to. Today, most people still don’t get their test results in a timely manner (in England, only 10 percent get results within 24 hours). This means people with the virus may be going about their daily lives, potentially spreading it to others, before they know they’re positive.
There’s also little follow-up or support to ensure people actually isolate and quarantine, said University College London’s Anthony Costello. “In the progressive European countries like Germany, and in South Korea and China, [the government] would pay your salary when you isolate. And if you’re not working, there’s a proper sickness benefit,” he said. Britain has no such program.
Scientists “have been saying testing, tracing, isolating hasn’t been working here. The testing was wrong, the tracing was wrong,” Costello added. “I’m realizing now nobody listens.”
Europe’s new coronavirus wave is a devastating political failure — especially for the poorest and most vulnerable
Make no mistake: The new wave of lockdowns in Europe are the result of a political failure. “It was understandable that countries imposed lockdowns in the initial weeks when countries first got hit and were quickly overwhelmed,” said Adam Kamradt-Scott, a global health professor at the University of Sydney. “But six months on, countries should have sufficient systems in place to undertake the necessary contact tracing and have a range of other measures they can use to limit the spread of the virus, rather than looking to hard lockdowns as the answer.”
The lack of systems to manage the pandemic is also a failure that the public will have to keep paying for, said LSE’s Clare Wenham. “Unless governments crack [testing, tracing, and isolating], we’re going to see these endless cycles of lockdowns every four to five months. There’s no other way.”
In some cases, governments may not be able to revert to spring-style closures. The highest court in Austria, for example, determined the March and April ban on entering public places, and a tiered rollout for shops reopening according to their size, was partly unconstitutional. Similar legal battles are unfolding at the city and state level in other countries in Europe.
But with disease spread out of control, economic activity may contract even without government lockdowns because people may start to voluntarily restrict their movements, according to an analysis from the International Monetary Fund. “When we looked backward at the economic impact of the pandemic in the first half of the year, it’s true that lockdowns contributed to the economic contraction,” said Damiano Sandri, an IMF analyst who has been studying the impact of the virus. “But economic activity also contracted because people got scared and didn’t go out as they would otherwise when infections increased.”
In other words, the social and economic toll of the pandemic isn’t only caused by lockdowns. “The damage is also done if you get a strong wave of infections,” Sandri added, “and people start dying.”
Related How America gave up on fighting the pandemic and saving the economy
In either scenario, businesses will have to restrict their hours or shutter altogether this winter. More people will lose wages or lose their jobs. And the economic toll of the pandemic has already been devastating: the worst recession since World War II. “The worst outcomes for governments are the repetitive lockdown,” Wenham added. “It’s better to be in one lockdown longer and have one economic shock than have these rolling shocks for two years.”
As the cold weather sets in across the Northern Hemisphere, people will have to stay away from their loved ones again. Parents will have to juggle work and child care, or choose between the two, again. Older and sick people will have to endure another bout of isolation and loneliness, in some cases gasping their last breaths alone.
Or maybe pandemic fatigue will deepen: The public will behave differently this time around and resist coronavirus measures, helping the virus spread.
“Decades from now, researchers may be talking about the ‘pandemic generation’”
Researchers have been busy calculating the health and social toll of the first round of coronavirus lockdowns. Cancer screenings dropped off dramatically in multiple countries. Domestic violence soared, as did childhood malnutrition and mental health problems. More people had heart attacks at home, delaying lifesaving visits to emergency rooms.
These are only the effects we can quantify right now, said Steven Woolf, a family medicine and population health professor at Virginia Commonwealth University, who has been tracking the rise in mortality from non-Covid causes in the US.
Woolf expects, in the years ahead, we’ll find there was a lot more devastation than is currently visible, such as a surge in deaths from chronic conditions — like diabetes, congestive heart failure, and HIV — as a result of Covid-19 disruptions in health care. The pandemic could also bring a “spike in overdose deaths” from loneliness and addiction services disruptions, and a long-term toll on childhood development.
“Decades from now, researchers may be talking about the ‘pandemic generation,’” Woolf said, “and some of the health effects they tolerated because they grew up in the midst of this.”
This will be especially true for the poorest and most vulnerable among us. Covid-related job losses, and even infections and deaths, have disproportionately affected low-income and minority groups around the world. Blunt tools like city- or nationwide lockdowns only exacerbate those impacts, York’s Steven Hoffman said.
“It’s easy for some people to lock down, particularly when they’re able to work from home. It’s far more difficult for those working in the service industry, who can’t work from home and might be living paycheck to paycheck,” Hoffman added. “The story of this pandemic is that it’s been a grand revealer for the inequalities in our society.”


vox--2020-10-20--How Biden — or Trump — could win 270 electoral votes

The question of whether President Donald Trump will be reelected isn ’ t really up to the whole country .
Joe Biden currently has a pretty big lead in national polls .
But due to the magic of the Electoral College system , the margins in a limited number of key states that happen to be politically divided will determine whether it ’ s Trump or Biden who ’ s sworn in on January 20 , 2021 — or whether , if the outcome is much closer , we head toward a national crisis .
If Biden wins big enough @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ll likely be able to beat back any attempt from Trump to question or contest the results .
As conservative commentator Hugh Hewitt once wrote in a different context , “ If it ’ s not close , they can ’ t cheat.
” But if the Electoral College margin is much closer — for instance , able to be swung by one very close state — expect recounts , legal challenges , and a tense situation .
So the Electoral College map and math are very important .
There are 14 states @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and Biden campaigns need to keep an eye on .
You can think of them in four groups .
The big six swing states : Michigan , Wisconsin , Pennsylvania , Arizona , Florida , and North Carolina are the states that are viewed as most likely to determine the outcome .
The two swing congressional districts : Nebraska ’ s Second District and Maine ’ s Second District , a pair of stray electoral votes that could be crucial in an extremely close contest .
The states Trump is trying to defend @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and Texas probably won ’ t be the tipping point states , but if they flip to Biden , it likely means he ’ s winning big .
The states Biden is trying to defend : Nevada , New Hampshire , Minnesota , and Maine are all lean Biden states where Trump hopes to make gains .
I ’ ll run through all these groups below , and explain the various paths to victory for both Biden and Trump — and the paths to a much less certain outcome .
The big six @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Arizona , Florida , and North Carolina These are six key states that have gotten by far the most attention from the campaigns and election analysts .
NPR reported that almost 85 percent of ad spending from presidential campaigns and outside groups has been focused on these states .
These states matter so much because they ’ re all medium to big , and they ’ re pretty evenly divided politically .
Four of them — Michigan , Wisconsin , Pennsylvania , and Florida — were won by Barack Obama in 2012 but @ @ @ @ @ @ @ went for Obama in 2008 but for Republicans in the two elections since .
And Arizona has voted for Republicans for decades but has been trending Democratic in recent years .
Eking out a small margin of victory in most of these states can give a candidate a massive Electoral College payoff — as Trump discovered in 2016 , when he won all six ; he won three of those by less than a percentage point .
Recent polling shows some separation among these “ big six ” states .
• Florida ( @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 15 EVs ) are the right-most of this batch , meaning Biden averages about a very narrow 1 to 3 point lead .
• Michigan ( 16 EVs ) and Wisconsin ( 10 EVs ) seem to be the left-most , with Biden leading polls there by 5 to 7 .
• Pennsylvania ( 20 EVs ) and Arizona ( 11 EVs ) are in the middle , with Biden leading there by 3 to 6 .
So if the current polls are right on and Biden wins all these states , he @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
But if the race tightens or if Trump overperforms polls , small margins in these six states will likely determine the winner .
In this group , there are 101 electoral votes at stake .
And if the winner in every other state is the same as 2016 ( far from a sure thing , but we ’ ll get to that ) , Biden would begin with a slight edge .
Biden ’ s magic number is that he ’ d need 38 of these 101 electoral votes to win the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ be higher — he ’ d need 66 of the 101 electoral votes .
To get to his magic number , then , Trump likely has to win Florida and three more of the states in this group — most plausibly North Carolina , Pennsylvania , and Arizona .
Biden , meanwhile , could reach his own magic number by winning Florida plus any one of the remaining five states in this group ( assuming he has no surprising losses elsewhere ) .
In the below example map , he wins Florida plus @ @ @ @ @ @ @ electoral votes of these states ) : Another path for Biden , which doesn ’ t rely on Florida or North Carolina , would be through winning just Wisconsin , Michigan , and Pennsylvania — flipping back those states Trump so closely won in 2016 : There ’ s also the scary possibility of the Electoral College tie — which would occur if Trump wins Florida , North Carolina , and Pennsylvania , while Biden wins Michigan , Wisconsin , and Arizona , and every other result from 2016 is the same : @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and NE-2 Another quirk in the Electoral College system is that just two small states — Maine and Nebraska — have made the unusual decision to allot some of their electoral votes to the winners in each congressional district in the state , rather than giving them all to the statewide winner as the other 48 states do .
Practically , one of Maine ’ s two districts is safe for Democrats , and two of Nebraska ’ s three districts are safe for Republicans .
But the remaining district in each state @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Nebraska ’ s Second District — is up for grabs .
With just one electoral vote at stake for each , they ’ ll only actually matter in the closest of races .
But if such a close contest transpires , they ’ ll be absolutely crucial .
For instance , the 269-269 tie map above would flip to Biden if he was able to win Nebraska ’ s Second District .
Maine ’ s Second is rural , and white voters lacking college degrees make up a large share of the electorate @ @ @ @ @ @ @ always been the same as Maine ’ s statewide result — until 2016 , when Trump won it by the sizable margin of 10 points ( while losing the state by 3 ) .
Recent polls have showed Biden with a narrow lead there this year .
As for Nebraska ’ s Second District , encompassing Omaha , Barack Obama actually won a previous version of it in 2008 .
Nebraska Republicans responded during the next redistricting by moving some Democratic voters out of the district , so Republicans won it in 2012 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ doing well there this time around , as education polarization continues ( both college-educated white voters and minority voters make up significant chunks of the electorate in this urban district ) .
Here ’ s another scenario where these two congressional districts could decide the president — if Biden wins Michigan and Pennsylvania , but Trump wins Florida , North Carolina , Arizona , and Wisconsin , with the two key congressional districts undecided .
If either candidate won them both , he ’ d win ; if they split , it would @ @ @ @ @ @ @ core big six swing states and the two weird congressional districts , each candidate is trying to go on offense in a set of states where they suspect their opponent is favored but hope for an upset .
For Biden , the states he ’ s trying to pluck out of Trump ’ s hands are the traditional swing states of Ohio and Iowa , and the recently Republican-leaning states of Georgia and Texas .
We can think of this group as two pairs of states : two Biden is trying to win @ @ @ @ @ @ @ new territory for Democrats to be contesting .
• Ohio ( 18 EVs ) and Iowa ( 6 EVs ) went for Obama twice , and trended heavily toward Republicans in 2016 ( Trump won them both by over 8 points ) .
Biden hopes to win back , and poll averages suggest he has a decent shot of it — he ’ s currently about tied in Ohio and also in in Iowa .
• Texas ( 38 EVs ) and Georgia ( 16 EVs ) haven ’ t voted for Democratic @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ margins of defeat there have recently shrunk ( Trump won Georgia by 5 percentage points and Texas by 9 percentage points ) .
Currently , polling averages show Biden narrowly ahead in Georgia and narrowly trailing in Texas .
It ’ s generally believed that these states are unlikely to be decisive , since if Biden wins one of these states , he ’ s probably won enough states from the big six as well .
But weird things can happen .
Here , for instance , is an ( admittedly very @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in the Upper Midwest and Rust Belt ( winning Michigan , Wisconsin , and Pennsylvania ) , and wins Florida and North Carolina — but Biden wins the election , because surprisingly high turnout among Mexican American voters delivers him narrow victories in Arizona and Texas .
There are also a few states that Biden can ’ t quite take for granted just yet : most notably Nevada and Minnesota , but it ’ s probably best to keep an eye on New Hampshire and Maine as well .
For Nevada ( 6 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ) , polls actually show these two states about as close as Wisconsin and Michigan right now .
But since Nevada has few electoral votes and Minnesota appears to lean to the left of neighboring Wisconsin , they ’ re less likely to be decisive in the Electoral College math — except , of course , in a very close outcome .
Clinton won both of these states last time around , but they were close — she won Nevada by 2.4 percentage points , and Minnesota by a mere 1.5 percentage points @ @ @ @ @ @ @ EVs ) and and Maine ( 2 EVs for statewide winner ) do not look all that competitive in recent polling — polls show Biden up by double digits in both states .
Still , they ’ re worth a mention because they were quite close in 2016 ( Clinton won New Hampshire by just 0.4 percentage points and Maine by 3 ) .
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The question of whether President Donald Trump will be reelected isn’t really up to the whole country.
Joe Biden currently has a pretty big lead in national polls. But due to the magic of the Electoral College system, the margins in a limited number of key states that happen to be politically divided will determine whether it’s Trump or Biden who’s sworn in on January 20, 2021 — or whether, if the outcome is much closer, we head toward a national crisis.
If Biden wins big enough in enough swing states, he’ll likely be able to beat back any attempt from Trump to question or contest the results. As conservative commentator Hugh Hewitt once wrote in a different context, “If it’s not close, they can’t cheat.”
But if the Electoral College margin is much closer — for instance, able to be swung by one very close state — expect recounts, legal challenges, and a tense situation.
So the Electoral College map and math are very important. There are 14 states and two congressional districts that the Trump and Biden campaigns need to keep an eye on. You can think of them in four groups.
The big six swing states: Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Florida, and North Carolina are the states that are viewed as most likely to determine the outcome.
The two swing congressional districts: Nebraska’s Second District and Maine’s Second District, a pair of stray electoral votes that could be crucial in an extremely close contest.
The states Trump is trying to defend: Ohio, Iowa, Georgia, and Texas probably won’t be the tipping point states, but if they flip to Biden, it likely means he’s winning big.
The states Biden is trying to defend: Nevada, New Hampshire, Minnesota, and Maine are all lean Biden states where Trump hopes to make gains.
I’ll run through all these groups below, and explain the various paths to victory for both Biden and Trump — and the paths to a much less certain outcome.
The big six: Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Florida, and North Carolina
These are six key states that have gotten by far the most attention from the campaigns and election analysts. NPR reported that almost 85 percent of ad spending from presidential campaigns and outside groups has been focused on these states.
These states matter so much because they’re all medium to big, and they’re pretty evenly divided politically. Four of them — Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Florida — were won by Barack Obama in 2012 but Donald Trump in 2016. North Carolina went for Obama in 2008 but for Republicans in the two elections since. And Arizona has voted for Republicans for decades but has been trending Democratic in recent years.
Eking out a small margin of victory in most of these states can give a candidate a massive Electoral College payoff — as Trump discovered in 2016, when he won all six; he won three of those by less than a percentage point.
Recent polling shows some separation among these “big six” states.
Florida (29 EVs) and North Carolina (15 EVs) are the right-most of this batch, meaning Biden averages about a very narrow 1 to 3 point lead.
are the right-most of this batch, meaning Biden averages about a very narrow 1 to 3 point lead. Michigan (16 EVs) and Wisconsin (10 EVs) seem to be the left-most, with Biden leading polls there by 5 to 7.
seem to be the left-most, with Biden leading polls there by 5 to 7. Pennsylvania (20 EVs) and Arizona (11 EVs) are in the middle, with Biden leading there by 3 to 6.
So if the current polls are right on and Biden wins all these states, he’ll clearly have won the presidency. But if the race tightens or if Trump overperforms polls, small margins in these six states will likely determine the winner.
In this group, there are 101 electoral votes at stake. And if the winner in every other state is the same as 2016 (far from a sure thing, but we’ll get to that), Biden would begin with a slight edge. Biden’s magic number is that he’d need 38 of these 101 electoral votes to win the presidency. Trump’s bar would be higher — he’d need 66 of the 101 electoral votes.
To get to his magic number, then, Trump likely has to win Florida and three more of the states in this group — most plausibly North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Arizona.
Biden, meanwhile, could reach his own magic number by winning Florida plus any one of the remaining five states in this group (assuming he has no surprising losses elsewhere). In the below example map, he wins Florida plus just Wisconsin (which has the fewest electoral votes of these states):
Another path for Biden, which doesn’t rely on Florida or North Carolina, would be through winning just Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania — flipping back those states Trump so closely won in 2016:
There’s also the scary possibility of the Electoral College tie — which would occur if Trump wins Florida, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania, while Biden wins Michigan, Wisconsin, and Arizona, and every other result from 2016 is the same:
The two swing congressional districts: ME-2 and NE-2
Another quirk in the Electoral College system is that just two small states — Maine and Nebraska — have made the unusual decision to allot some of their electoral votes to the winners in each congressional district in the state, rather than giving them all to the statewide winner as the other 48 states do.
Practically, one of Maine’s two districts is safe for Democrats, and two of Nebraska’s three districts are safe for Republicans. But the remaining district in each state — Maine’s Second District and Nebraska’s Second District — is up for grabs.
With just one electoral vote at stake for each, they’ll only actually matter in the closest of races. But if such a close contest transpires, they’ll be absolutely crucial. For instance, the 269-269 tie map above would flip to Biden if he was able to win Nebraska’s Second District.
Maine’s Second is rural, and white voters lacking college degrees make up a large share of the electorate. Its result in presidential years had always been the same as Maine’s statewide result — until 2016, when Trump won it by the sizable margin of 10 points (while losing the state by 3). Recent polls have showed Biden with a narrow lead there this year.
As for Nebraska’s Second District, encompassing Omaha, Barack Obama actually won a previous version of it in 2008. Nebraska Republicans responded during the next redistricting by moving some Democratic voters out of the district, so Republicans won it in 2012 and 2016. But polls show Biden doing well there this time around, as education polarization continues (both college-educated white voters and minority voters make up significant chunks of the electorate in this urban district).
Here’s another scenario where these two congressional districts could decide the president — if Biden wins Michigan and Pennsylvania, but Trump wins Florida, North Carolina, Arizona, and Wisconsin, with the two key congressional districts undecided.
If either candidate won them both, he’d win; if they split, it would be a 269-269 tie.
The states Trump must defend
Beyond the core big six swing states and the two weird congressional districts, each candidate is trying to go on offense in a set of states where they suspect their opponent is favored but hope for an upset.
For Biden, the states he’s trying to pluck out of Trump’s hands are the traditional swing states of Ohio and Iowa, and the recently Republican-leaning states of Georgia and Texas.
We can think of this group as two pairs of states: two Biden is trying to win back, and two that are relatively new territory for Democrats to be contesting.
Ohio (18 EVs) and Iowa (6 EVs) went for Obama twice, and trended heavily toward Republicans in 2016 (Trump won them both by over 8 points). Biden hopes to win back, and poll averages suggest he has a decent shot of it — he’s currently about tied in Ohio and also in in Iowa.
went for Obama twice, and trended heavily toward Republicans in 2016 (Trump won them both by over 8 points). Biden hopes to win back, and poll averages suggest he has a decent shot of it — he’s currently about tied in Ohio and also in in Iowa. Texas (38 EVs) and Georgia (16 EVs) haven’t voted for Democratic presidential candidates in decades — but Democrats’ margins of defeat there have recently shrunk (Trump won Georgia by 5 percentage points and Texas by 9 percentage points). Currently, polling averages show Biden narrowly ahead in Georgia and narrowly trailing in Texas.
It’s generally believed that these states are unlikely to be decisive, since if Biden wins one of these states, he’s probably won enough states from the big six as well.
But weird things can happen. Here, for instance, is an (admittedly very unlikely) map where Trump holds strong in the Upper Midwest and Rust Belt (winning Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania), and wins Florida and North Carolina — but Biden wins the election, because surprisingly high turnout among Mexican American voters delivers him narrow victories in Arizona and Texas.
The states Biden must defend
There are also a few states that Biden can’t quite take for granted just yet: most notably Nevada and Minnesota, but it’s probably best to keep an eye on New Hampshire and Maine as well.
For Nevada (6 EVs) and Minnesota (10 EVs), polls actually show these two states about as close as Wisconsin and Michigan right now. But since Nevada has few electoral votes and Minnesota appears to lean to the left of neighboring Wisconsin, they’re less likely to be decisive in the Electoral College math — except, of course, in a very close outcome.
Clinton won both of these states last time around, but they were close — she won Nevada by 2.4 percentage points, and Minnesota by a mere 1.5 percentage points.
Meanwhile, New Hampshire (4 EVs) and and Maine (2 EVs for statewide winner) do not look all that competitive in recent polling — polls show Biden up by double digits in both states. Still, they’re worth a mention because they were quite close in 2016 (Clinton won New Hampshire by just 0.4 percentage points and Maine by 3).


vox--2020-10-20--How America could lose its allies

How America could lose its allies

More than 70 years ago the United States redesigned what an alliance could be used for .
For centuries , countries allied with each other in order to fight and win specific wars .
But after the devastation of World War II and the beginning of the Cold War , the US needed help preventing another from starting .
In the span of just a few years , it joined a collective alliance with 11 other countries , called the North Atlantic Treaty Organization , and signed several alliances with countries in Asia .
These agreements obliged the US to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ gave them an unprecedented number of partners around the world .
This system largely proved to be a success .
A third world war never happened , and the US won the Cold War .
But in the past decade , the US and its allies have been drifting apart , and many believe the system needs an update .
The question is what to do about them .
Watch the video above to learn about the US alliance system and what the 2020 Presidential candidates plan to do about it .
This @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on the 2020 election .
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Tell us here : http : //vox.com/ElectionVideos .
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More than 70 years ago the United States redesigned what an alliance could be used for. For centuries, countries allied with each other in order to fight and win specific wars. But after the devastation of World War II and the beginning of the Cold War, the US needed help preventing another from starting.
In the span of just a few years, it joined a collective alliance with 11 other countries, called the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, and signed several alliances with countries in Asia. These agreements obliged the US to protect these countries — but it also gave them an unprecedented number of partners around the world.
This system largely proved to be a success. A third world war never happened, and the US won the Cold War. But in the past decade, the US and its allies have been drifting apart, and many believe the system needs an update. The question is what to do about them.
Watch the video above to learn about the US alliance system and what the 2020 Presidential candidates plan to do about it.
This video is the sixth in our series on the 2020 election. We aren’t covering the horse race; instead, we want to explain the stakes of the election through the issues that matter the most to you. To do that, we want to know what you think the US presidential candidates should be talking about. Tell us here: http://vox.com/ElectionVideos.
You can find this video and all of Vox’s videos on YouTube. Subscribe for the latest.