vox--2020-10-29--“I am humbled by what we’ve been able to create”: Small business owners on when they knew they’d mad

“I am humbled by what we’ve been able to create”: Small business owners on when they knew they’d made it

Running a small business has never been easy .
Even before the Covid-19 pandemic changed everything about the way we live , work , and shop , getting an independent business off the ground and keeping it afloat was difficult .
But being your own boss also comes with the promise of incredible fulfillment .
Be it a coffee shop , a nail salon , a gift shop , or a bookstore , local businesses are often community hubs , spaces for people to come together — both for the people who own them and for customers who become regulars @ @ @ @ @ @ @ four small business owners across the country about why they decided to try and make it on their own , the struggles they ’ ve faced along the way , the moments that make it all worth it , and whether they feel like they ’ ve “ made it.
” Despite their differences , every person we spoke with expressed a combination of joy , anxiety , and confidence in what they ’ ve built — even now that things are so uncertain .
In most cases , there wasn ’ t @ @ @ @ @ @ @ feel like they had finally made it .
It was a series of things , or even just the joy of doing something entirely their own .
Some of the people we spoke to have been in business for years ; others opened their doors in the middle of a pandemic .
Some had owned or run businesses in the past ; others turned a side hustle or an ambitious idea into a full-time job .
Jason : I ’ ve been doing my nails since I was 20 — I ’ m @ @ @ @ @ @ @ time I went to get my nails done , that they ’ d try to steer me away from getting colors , or they ’ d be kind of laughing behind their hand at me .
I didn ’ t care .
I grew up in Texas , I can handle homophobia all day .
Maria and I , we own a company that makes silicone mermaid tails , and that was taking up a lot of our time .
It was fun , but we really wanted to try a brick and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ we wanted her to grow up and have a place to grow up in and have a little community through the business .
When we started Cute , it was during a sort of surge in the trans community ’ s visibility , as far as the mainstream .
We were talking about it , and we were like , considering how frequently I had to deal with [ being mocked ] , going to a nail salon and trying to get a beauty service [ as a young queer person ] and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ] heartbreaking .
We decided to start a gay-inclusive , rainbow nail salon .
Maria : We also wanted to celebrate nail art .
It ’ s such a cool and interesting medium .
It ’ s always changing , and there ’ s a lot of really fun stuff — science and chemistry .
We wanted to celebrate nail art and that form of expressing yourself , which is why we call ourselves Cute Nail Studio instead of Nail Salon .
We want to remind people of art studios .
Jason : @ @ @ @ @ @ @ budget and past deadline to open .
Our first open day was during South by Southwest , and we ’ re downtown .
Most people thought that our building was a pop-up for South by .
There were people shooting music videos on the outside of the building .
We had a couple rappers walk through .
It was crazy .
Maria : It was also crazy because we had no idea what we were doing .
We had never done anything like this at all .
We were really making it up @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a lot of stumbling and falling and making mistakes at the beginning .
We had to learn it all as we went along .
It was not easy in the beginning , that ’ s for sure .
Jason : It ’ s way easier now .
We ’ ve got a really solid team , and I get to sleep at night , and that ’ s cool .
Maria : A personal philosophy for me , even before I had Cute , is that failure is a really great teacher .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ had with the beginning of Cute , all of those things made us a better work environment and salon today .
It really is a well-oiled machine now .
Even though it was hard in the beginning , I never felt fearful that maybe it wasn ’ t going to work .
Once it started going , once the rainbow hit the outside of the building , I was like , this is going to happen , and it ’ s going to be cool .
I started in early 2019 , so @ @ @ @ @ @ @ me , having a small business .
I started it just as a side hustle .
I was a full-time graphic designer , but I was working for a very corporate firm .
I just needed another creative outlet that was just for myself , so I started making jewelry and eventually opened an online shop and started selling it .
I started locally — a lot of small shops in the DC area — and it ’ s grown a lot within the past few months .
It was still primarily a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ job .
It ’ s within the past few months that it ’ s gone more full-time .
In June , with the Black Lives Matter protests and the deaths of Breonna Taylor and George Floyd , there was this big push to support Black businesses , so a lot of people with large followings were sharing my work .
Within a few days , my shop was sold out .
It changed the landscape of my business .
My income was primarily coming from wholesale and from in-person events ; I wasn @ @ @ @ @ @ @ shop that stocked up .
But now it ’ s grown quite a bit , so I ’ m having to treat it as my full-time job now .
I still have a part-time job , but I ’ m still mainly focused on my jewelry .
I feel like I keep waiting for the ball to drop , like , “ This next restock , I ’ m not going to have any sales — it ’ s going to die down.
” But so far , I ’ ve been pretty @ @ @ @ @ @ @ consistent .
It ’ s hard to gauge when you ’ ve made it .
I feel pretty good about where I am right now .
I have these big partnerships that I never thought would happen .
But also because of what this year has been , it ’ s hard to gauge in the long run if this is feasible .
I think with small businesses , you ’ re always shifting .
I work for myself — I ’ m the only employee , so I only have to pay @ @ @ @ @ @ @ I work with and when I release collections .
It ’ s really hard to tell right now .
I ’ ve switched back and forth between the food industry and retail for my entire working life .
This [ gift ] shop has been something that has been in the back of my mind for a really long time .
In 2019 , I decided to make a plan for how to move forward .
It ’ s been a long time coming , and it ’ s been a slow build @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to open our doors , it was the middle of a pandemic .
Luckily , we already had our website going .
We didn ’ t open and get complete silence .
We opened the doors to the brick and mortar in July , but shutdowns started in March .
We were very surprised at how busy we were in March and April .
In our little world , our little business , we were staying so busy .
We were sending out so many care packages .
We offer gift wrapping and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ notes that people were having us send out for them , to their friends and family across the country , were so moving and heavy .
Part of why I wanted to start this business was to help people connect with each other through gifts , and sharing meaningful items to be really used every day .
It was very bizarre and confusing to feel like , “ Oh , we were so successful in that mission , and people are really connecting and they are finding the sweetest gifts .
But I @ @ @ @ @ @ @ !
I didn ’ t want them to be gift shopping with us so intensely because they couldn ’ t see their friends and family.
” It was not the way I wanted to see my dream fulfilled , but of course , I ’ m so happy that I can be a tool to help people still connect with each other , and that I can provide the service .
When we were shipping out care packages in March and April , that was when I felt like “ Okay , people @ @ @ @ @ @ @ doing , and we ’ re helping them send their love across the country through the offerings we ’ ve pulled together.
” Another time where I felt like I was successful in my intentions was when we actually opened the physical store , which I was very nervous about for months .
I tried to put it off , but eventually I just had to open the doors .
It was time to pay rent !
A big intention and focus on the physical space was to make it feel like a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ coming in and they would just comment on how instantly and immediately at ease they felt stepping in .
For people to come in and really connect with the space has been so rewarding .
I didn ’ t want people to be so desperately in need of a relaxing distraction , but I ’ m very happy that they ’ re able to come here and feel at ease .
“ It ’ s hard to reproduce that [ community feeling ] over Zoom when people ’ s entire lives are on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ friend and I had been talking for years about women opening businesses and finding a space for joy , and a source of joy that ’ s outside of the paid work that we do .
After going through a thousand different ideas , we decided to look in our own spaces and see what we spend the most money on .
I spend the most money on books — it was very clear to me , like , yes , if I ’ m going to do anything that I love , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ pure joy , it ’ s going to be a bookstore .
In 2015 I went to Ethiopia and I went into a coffee shop , and it was the most transformative experience that I had [ there ] .
It was bright orange , and all the local taxi men would come into the coffee shop to drink coffee and check in with one another .
I absolutely loved it , and thought , “ This is what I want to create .
I want to create a space that , when @ @ @ @ @ @ @ feel like , ‘ I ’ m so happy to be here .
I ’ m so happy to see you.
’ ” Folks who don ’ t get to see each other , who are ordinarily not friends but are neighbors , can meet up at the coffee shop , deepen their relationship , and eventually become friends .
Prior to Covid , I had a very active book club .
We had met together for almost two years , a core group of people .
Slowly , we ’ ve seen @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
It ’ s hard to reproduce that [ community feeling ] over Zoom when people ’ s entire lives are on Zoom at this point .
I ’ ve always believed in the idea .
I always felt strongly about the business .
I think Black-owned bookstores have [ recently ] seen an exponential increase in revenue .
I think that ’ s the only time I ’ ve felt like , “ This is viable.
” But in terms of a meaningful , real thing , it has always felt that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ about it is that I ’ m not relying on the bookstore for income , so I have a different relationship with it .
I poured my paid job money into the bookstore , and that ’ s what was holding it up .
For me , it was sustainable and viable as long as I had a paid job .
Every time I open that door , I am humbled , even today , by what we ’ ve been able to create .
I remember our first book club meeting when @ @ @ @ @ @ @ little space and folks were sitting on the ground , so excited to be part of our community .
I was like , “ This thing that I created that was in my head , I knew it would be powerful , and here it is manifested in the flesh.
” Help keep Vox free for all Millions turn to Vox each month to understand what ’ s happening in the news , from the coronavirus crisis to a racial reckoning to what is , quite possibly , the most consequential presidential election @ @ @ @ @ @ @ never been more vital than it is in this moment : to empower you through understanding .
But our distinctive brand of explanatory journalism takes resources .
Even when the economy and the news advertising market recovers , your support will be a critical part of sustaining our resource-intensive work .
If you have already contributed , thank you .
If you haven ’ t , please consider helping everyone make sense of an increasingly chaotic world : Contribute today from as little as $ 3 .

Running a small business has never been easy. Even before the Covid-19 pandemic changed everything about the way we live, work, and shop, getting an independent business off the ground and keeping it afloat was difficult. But being your own boss also comes with the promise of incredible fulfillment.
Be it a coffee shop, a nail salon, a gift shop, or a bookstore, local businesses are often community hubs, spaces for people to come together — both for the people who own them and for customers who become regulars and friends. The Goods spoke to four small business owners across the country about why they decided to try and make it on their own, the struggles they’ve faced along the way, the moments that make it all worth it, and whether they feel like they’ve “made it.”
Despite their differences, every person we spoke with expressed a combination of joy, anxiety, and confidence in what they’ve built — even now that things are so uncertain. In most cases, there wasn’t a single lightbulb moment that made them feel like they had finally made it. It was a series of things, or even just the joy of doing something entirely their own.
Some of the people we spoke to have been in business for years; others opened their doors in the middle of a pandemic. Some had owned or run businesses in the past; others turned a side hustle or an ambitious idea into a full-time job.
Maria and Jason Darling, owners, Cute Nail Studio; Austin, Texas
Jason: I’ve been doing my nails since I was 20 — I’m 42 now. I found, every time I went to get my nails done, that they’d try to steer me away from getting colors, or they’d be kind of laughing behind their hand at me. I didn’t care. I grew up in Texas, I can handle homophobia all day.
Maria and I, we own a company that makes silicone mermaid tails, and that was taking up a lot of our time. It was fun, but we really wanted to try a brick and mortar. We had a daughter, we wanted her to grow up and have a place to grow up in and have a little community through the business. When we started Cute, it was during a sort of surge in the trans community’s visibility, as far as the mainstream.
We were talking about it, and we were like, considering how frequently I had to deal with [being mocked], going to a nail salon and trying to get a beauty service [as a young queer person] and even being lightly mocked [must be] heartbreaking. We decided to start a gay-inclusive, rainbow nail salon.
Maria: We also wanted to celebrate nail art. It’s such a cool and interesting medium. It’s always changing, and there’s a lot of really fun stuff — science and chemistry. We wanted to celebrate nail art and that form of expressing yourself, which is why we call ourselves Cute Nail Studio instead of Nail Salon. We want to remind people of art studios.
Jason: Opening was nuts. We were over budget and past deadline to open. Our first open day was during South by Southwest, and we’re downtown. Most people thought that our building was a pop-up for South by. There were people shooting music videos on the outside of the building. We had a couple rappers walk through. It was crazy.
Maria: It was also crazy because we had no idea what we were doing. We had never done anything like this at all. We were really making it up as we went along. We did a lot of stumbling and falling and making mistakes at the beginning. We had to learn it all as we went along. It was not easy in the beginning, that’s for sure.
Jason: It’s way easier now. We’ve got a really solid team, and I get to sleep at night, and that’s cool.
Maria: A personal philosophy for me, even before I had Cute, is that failure is a really great teacher. For all of the troubles that we had with the beginning of Cute, all of those things made us a better work environment and salon today. It really is a well-oiled machine now. Even though it was hard in the beginning, I never felt fearful that maybe it wasn’t going to work. Once it started going, once the rainbow hit the outside of the building, I was like, this is going to happen, and it’s going to be cool.
Camille Hay, owner, Romy Studio; Washington, DC
I started in early 2019, so it’s still fairly new to me, having a small business. I started it just as a side hustle. I was a full-time graphic designer, but I was working for a very corporate firm. I just needed another creative outlet that was just for myself, so I started making jewelry and eventually opened an online shop and started selling it. I started locally — a lot of small shops in the DC area — and it’s grown a lot within the past few months.
It was still primarily a side hustle; I still had a job. It’s within the past few months that it’s gone more full-time. In June, with the Black Lives Matter protests and the deaths of Breonna Taylor and George Floyd, there was this big push to support Black businesses, so a lot of people with large followings were sharing my work. Within a few days, my shop was sold out.
It changed the landscape of my business. My income was primarily coming from wholesale and from in-person events; I wasn’t having to keep my online shop that stocked up. But now it’s grown quite a bit, so I’m having to treat it as my full-time job now. I still have a part-time job, but I’m still mainly focused on my jewelry.
I feel like I keep waiting for the ball to drop, like, “This next restock, I’m not going to have any sales — it’s going to die down.” But so far, I’ve been pretty lucky because it’s been pretty consistent. It’s hard to gauge when you’ve made it. I feel pretty good about where I am right now. I have these big partnerships that I never thought would happen. But also because of what this year has been, it’s hard to gauge in the long run if this is feasible.
I think with small businesses, you’re always shifting. I work for myself — I’m the only employee, so I only have to pay myself and I get to choose who I work with and when I release collections. It’s really hard to tell right now.
Alicia Gray, co-owner, Genara; Houston, Texas
I’ve switched back and forth between the food industry and retail for my entire working life. This [gift] shop has been something that has been in the back of my mind for a really long time. In 2019, I decided to make a plan for how to move forward. It’s been a long time coming, and it’s been a slow build. Finally, when we were able to open our doors, it was the middle of a pandemic.
Luckily, we already had our website going. We didn’t open and get complete silence. We opened the doors to the brick and mortar in July, but shutdowns started in March.
We were very surprised at how busy we were in March and April. In our little world, our little business, we were staying so busy. We were sending out so many care packages. We offer gift wrapping and gift notes on our site. The notes that people were having us send out for them, to their friends and family across the country, were so moving and heavy.
Part of why I wanted to start this business was to help people connect with each other through gifts, and sharing meaningful items to be really used every day. It was very bizarre and confusing to feel like, “Oh, we were so successful in that mission, and people are really connecting and they are finding the sweetest gifts. But I didn’t want it this way! I didn’t want them to be gift shopping with us so intensely because they couldn’t see their friends and family.” It was not the way I wanted to see my dream fulfilled, but of course, I’m so happy that I can be a tool to help people still connect with each other, and that I can provide the service.
When we were shipping out care packages in March and April, that was when I felt like “Okay, people are connecting with what we’re doing, and we’re helping them send their love across the country through the offerings we’ve pulled together.”
Another time where I felt like I was successful in my intentions was when we actually opened the physical store, which I was very nervous about for months. I tried to put it off, but eventually I just had to open the doors. It was time to pay rent! A big intention and focus on the physical space was to make it feel like a calm, peaceful retreat. People were coming in and they would just comment on how instantly and immediately at ease they felt stepping in.
For people to come in and really connect with the space has been so rewarding. I didn’t want people to be so desperately in need of a relaxing distraction, but I’m very happy that they’re able to come here and feel at ease.
“It’s hard to reproduce that [community feeling] over Zoom when people’s entire lives are on Zoom at this point.”
Kalima DeSuze, co-owner, Café Con Libros, Brooklyn, New York
My best friend and I had been talking for years about women opening businesses and finding a space for joy, and a source of joy that’s outside of the paid work that we do. After going through a thousand different ideas, we decided to look in our own spaces and see what we spend the most money on. I spend the most money on books — it was very clear to me, like, yes, if I’m going to do anything that I love, that’s going to just be pure joy, it’s going to be a bookstore.
In 2015 I went to Ethiopia and I went into a coffee shop, and it was the most transformative experience that I had [there]. It was bright orange, and all the local taxi men would come into the coffee shop to drink coffee and check in with one another. I absolutely loved it, and thought, “This is what I want to create. I want to create a space that, when people come into the space, they feel like, ‘I’m so happy to be here. I’m so happy to see you.’” Folks who don’t get to see each other, who are ordinarily not friends but are neighbors, can meet up at the coffee shop, deepen their relationship, and eventually become friends.
Prior to Covid, I had a very active book club. We had met together for almost two years, a core group of people. Slowly, we’ve seen that core group of folks fizzle out. It’s hard to reproduce that [community feeling] over Zoom when people’s entire lives are on Zoom at this point.
I’ve always believed in the idea. I always felt strongly about the business. I think Black-owned bookstores have [recently] seen an exponential increase in revenue. I think that’s the only time I’ve felt like, “This is viable.” But in terms of a meaningful, real thing, it has always felt that way to me. The good thing about it is that I’m not relying on the bookstore for income, so I have a different relationship with it. I poured my paid job money into the bookstore, and that’s what was holding it up. For me, it was sustainable and viable as long as I had a paid job.
Every time I open that door, I am humbled, even today, by what we’ve been able to create. I remember our first book club meeting when we had twenty-something people in that tiny little space and folks were sitting on the ground, so excited to be part of our community. I was like, “This thing that I created that was in my head, I knew it would be powerful, and here it is manifested in the flesh.”


vox--2020-10-29--Retailers are pushing sales before the election

In a normal year , a holiday marketing email landing in my inbox the first week of October would have been cause for an immediate “ unsubscribe.
” In 2020 , though , the premature arrival of festive cheer and seasonal discounts hardly registered as unusual — coming , as it did , after months in which my experience of time seemed to bear little connection to my calendar .
Brands that might otherwise wait until mid-November to start pushing out holiday promotions had plenty of reasons for getting a head start , most of them related to the Covid-19 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on the momentum from Amazon ’ s months-delayed Prime Day , and accounting for shipping delays caused by the expected flood of online orders .
The wild card that marketers say has been at the top of all of their minds , though , is the upcoming US presidential election , a single day in November that could very well monopolize the country ’ s attention long past the closing of the polls .
How do you get customers excited about your new air fryer or eyeshadow palette when they ’ re worried @ @ @ @ @ @ @ coming weeks will be a test of what happens when the holiday shopping bonanza collides with one of the most fraught political events in recent history .
How do you get customers excited about your new air fryer or eyeshadow palette when they ’ re worried about the future of democracy ?
How soon is too soon to advertise a sale once the polls close ?
Just as America ’ s top political strategists are currently mapping out different election outcomes — a landslide victory for either side , a contested race that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ numbers of mail-in ballots , civil unrest stoked by President Trump ’ s unfounded cries of voter fraud — brands are creating contingency plans for how and when they ’ ll be able to sell you stuff again .
Vickie Segar , the founder of Village Marketing , an influencer marketing agency , says she ’ s advised her clients to scale back significantly during the first couple of weeks of November .
She wants to make sure they don ’ t get caught in the same situation many did four years ago @ @ @ @ @ @ @ never saw .
“ During the election in 2016 , we assumed there would be a couple of days where we would go dark on media , ” she recalls .
Instead , Trump ’ s win sent the country reeling , keeping audiences ’ attention on national political news rather than shopping or lifestyle content .
In the past two presidential cycles , consumer spending dropped 6 percent year over year during the week of the election , according to Epsilon ’ s Abacus database .
Those clicks and dollars did bounce @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a week after the election , Segar says — and this year , with the likelihood of contested results and the concurrent threat of the pandemic , the outlook is even more uncertain .
“ It ’ s like a perfect storm , ” says Segar , whose agency is also working with Joe Biden ’ s campaign to reach young voters on social media .
“ We just have to be prepared.
” For some companies , this means preparing for business disruptions : Maggie Merklin , executive vice president at Analytic @ @ @ @ @ @ @ says one client , a restaurant group , anticipates another lockdown if Biden wins the election and is planning out scenarios for national or statewide closures .
The CEO of ServiceChannel , a facilities management company that works with gyms , retailers , and other businesses , told the Wall Street Journal that hundreds of its clients have plywood and contractors ready to mobilize in case of protests and civil unrest .
However , for other brands , this preparation has as much to do with the messaging they ’ ll put out @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , many brands have thrown their weight behind voter turnout efforts : Fashion labels have released “ vote ” merchandise , ride-sharing apps have offered free or discounted transportation to the polls , and companies of all persuasions have used their email lists , Instagram feeds , and celebrity ambassadors to encourage customers to do their civic duty .
This kind of bipartisan message is a relatively safe way to get involved in the national conversation .
According to a recent Morning Consult poll , 59 percent of Americans believe corporations should use @ @ @ @ @ @ @ elections .
Picking a side — or being perceived to pick one — is riskier , with 52 percent of respondents saying companies shouldn ’ t be involved in getting politicians elected .
“ I think it ’ s every brand ’ s responsibility to become part of that process and to speak up about what ’ s going on ” Jennifer Bett Meyer , president and founder of the media relations agency Jennifer Bett Communications , says she has encouraged the brands she works with to be outspoken .
“ I don @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to just pause a marketing campaign because you ’ re afraid that you ’ re not going to get attention because there ’ s going to be so much attention on the election .
I think it ’ s every brand ’ s responsibility to become part of that process and to speak up about what ’ s going on.
” Of course , some companies have a more natural entry to do so than others : Tia , a women ’ s health startup and a JBC client , published an open @ @ @ @ @ @ @ women want for health care in America , based on the results of a September survey of 900 women .
But even those that sell CBD drinks or cashmere sweaters will have to enter the fray eventually post-election .
“ Brands need to launch .
People can ’ t stand still , ” says Bett Meyer , adding that the holiday season is a crucial one for many of the startups and small brands with whom the agency works .
“ I think it always comes back to the messaging … it ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ at their external messaging , whether that ’ s an email blast or a social media post or a sale , to make sure that it reflects the current landscape.
” Their ability to read the room can make or break consumers ’ trust , as we witnessed this summer with brands ’ at-times-haphazard attempts to weigh in on the Black Lives Matter movement .
While people called out companies for empty pronouncements and black-square Instagram posts that contradicted their internal policies and practices , not posting was also a statement in itself @ @ @ @ @ @ @ wanted to avoid .
“ I can ’ t tell you how many brands were like , ‘ We are not going to comment on Black Lives Matter.
’ And then all of a sudden , they were like , ‘ We need to comment on Black Lives Matter , ’ ” says Carrie Kerpen , the co-founder and CEO of Likeable Media , a digital agency .
With the election , she says , brands have to be prepared to shift their messaging and timing based on the outcome .
“ There @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ‘ You wait five days , and then post.
’ … The overused word of the century is ‘ unprecedented , ’ but it is .
We don ’ t know .
So you have to go with a little bit of gut.
” What consumers see ( and don ’ t see ) in the coming weeks will also be determined by ad platforms themselves : Facebook has banned new political ads in the week before the election and for an indefinite period after polls close , while Google will implement a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ at least a week .
The two tech giants — which together control nearly 70 percent of the digital ad market — are making a public show of cracking down on misinformation ( though how effective this will be amid all the lies that go viral for free is debatable ) .
In doing so , says Kerpen , Facebook has begun labeling nearly all ads that even remotely touch on “ social good ” as “ political ” — so brands won ’ t be able to create ads that tread near @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the ban .
Advertising on virtually any channel is also more expensive around the election .
Kantar , a consulting and research firm , estimates that political advertisers will spend $ 7 billion this election cycle , driving up costs and monopolizing prime spots on television , digital , and radio .
On Facebook , ad prices were already surging before the election , with costs per 1,000 impressions ( CPMs ) up 23 percent between July and September , according to digital ad company Revealbot .
On YouTube , Bloomberg reports , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ outpacing the number of slots available in front of certain audiences , pricing out even some campaigns .
For some brands , the October early holiday push comes back to the pandemic for another reason : They pulled back aggressively on their marketing spending in the spring , when mass unemployment and shuttered stores meant few consumers were shopping .
According to Kantar , US media spending was down 19 percent in the first half of 2020 compared to the same period last year .
Now that some sectors have stabilized , these @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and with the looming threat of political upheaval , they ’ re under pressure to meet sales goals .
Merklin says many of her clients are directing these dollars at email marketing and other channels targeting existing customers for the weeks around November 3 .
“ So they ’ re still advertising during the election , but on more of a targeted or a personalized level because they can do that a little bit more safely than just throwing out an ad on Facebook and not knowing what it ’ s going to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ it might be observed , ” she says .
Brands , they ’ re just like us : They have no idea what happens next .
Will you help keep Vox free for all ?
The United States is in the middle of one of the most consequential presidential elections of our lifetimes .
It ’ s essential that all Americans are able to access clear , concise information on what the outcome of the election could mean for their lives , and the lives of their families and communities .
That is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ distinctive brand of explanatory journalism takes resources .
Even when the economy and the news advertising market recovers , your support will be a critical part of sustaining our resource-intensive work .
If you have already contributed , thank you .
If you haven ’ t , please consider helping everyone understand this presidential election : Contribute today from as little as $ 3 .

In a normal year, a holiday marketing email landing in my inbox the first week of October would have been cause for an immediate “unsubscribe.” In 2020, though, the premature arrival of festive cheer and seasonal discounts hardly registered as unusual — coming, as it did, after months in which my experience of time seemed to bear little connection to my calendar.
Brands that might otherwise wait until mid-November to start pushing out holiday promotions had plenty of reasons for getting a head start, most of them related to the Covid-19 pandemic: reducing last-minute crowds, capitalizing on the momentum from Amazon’s months-delayed Prime Day, and accounting for shipping delays caused by the expected flood of online orders.
The wild card that marketers say has been at the top of all of their minds, though, is the upcoming US presidential election, a single day in November that could very well monopolize the country’s attention long past the closing of the polls.
How do you get customers excited about your new air fryer or eyeshadow palette when they’re worried about the future of democracy?
The coming weeks will be a test of what happens when the holiday shopping bonanza collides with one of the most fraught political events in recent history. How do you get customers excited about your new air fryer or eyeshadow palette when they’re worried about the future of democracy? How soon is too soon to advertise a sale once the polls close?
Just as America’s top political strategists are currently mapping out different election outcomes — a landslide victory for either side, a contested race that takes weeks to call due to record numbers of mail-in ballots, civil unrest stoked by President Trump’s unfounded cries of voter fraud — brands are creating contingency plans for how and when they’ll be able to sell you stuff again.
Vickie Segar, the founder of Village Marketing, an influencer marketing agency, says she’s advised her clients to scale back significantly during the first couple of weeks of November. She wants to make sure they don’t get caught in the same situation many did four years ago, having to redo campaigns that audiences never saw.
“During the election in 2016, we assumed there would be a couple of days where we would go dark on media,” she recalls. Instead, Trump’s win sent the country reeling, keeping audiences’ attention on national political news rather than shopping or lifestyle content.
In the past two presidential cycles, consumer spending dropped 6 percent year over year during the week of the election, according to Epsilon’s Abacus database.
Those clicks and dollars did bounce back, but not until at least a week after the election, Segar says — and this year, with the likelihood of contested results and the concurrent threat of the pandemic, the outlook is even more uncertain. “It’s like a perfect storm,” says Segar, whose agency is also working with Joe Biden’s campaign to reach young voters on social media. “We just have to be prepared.”
For some companies, this means preparing for business disruptions: Maggie Merklin, executive vice president at Analytic Partners, a marketing analytics company, says one client, a restaurant group, anticipates another lockdown if Biden wins the election and is planning out scenarios for national or statewide closures. The CEO of ServiceChannel, a facilities management company that works with gyms, retailers, and other businesses, told the Wall Street Journal that hundreds of its clients have plywood and contractors ready to mobilize in case of protests and civil unrest.
However, for other brands, this preparation has as much to do with the messaging they’ll put out. In the lead-up to the election, many brands have thrown their weight behind voter turnout efforts: Fashion labels have released “vote” merchandise, ride-sharing apps have offered free or discounted transportation to the polls, and companies of all persuasions have used their email lists, Instagram feeds, and celebrity ambassadors to encourage customers to do their civic duty.
This kind of bipartisan message is a relatively safe way to get involved in the national conversation. According to a recent Morning Consult poll, 59 percent of Americans believe corporations should use their influence to ensure safe and fair elections. Picking a side — or being perceived to pick one — is riskier, with 52 percent of respondents saying companies shouldn’t be involved in getting politicians elected.
“I think it’s every brand’s responsibility to become part of that process and to speak up about what’s going on”
Jennifer Bett Meyer, president and founder of the media relations agency Jennifer Bett Communications, says she has encouraged the brands she works with to be outspoken. “I don’t think it’s enough to just pause a marketing campaign because you’re afraid that you’re not going to get attention because there’s going to be so much attention on the election. I think it’s every brand’s responsibility to become part of that process and to speak up about what’s going on.”
Of course, some companies have a more natural entry to do so than others: Tia, a women’s health startup and a JBC client, published an open letter to the future president about what women want for health care in America, based on the results of a September survey of 900 women.
But even those that sell CBD drinks or cashmere sweaters will have to enter the fray eventually post-election. “Brands need to launch. People can’t stand still,” says Bett Meyer, adding that the holiday season is a crucial one for many of the startups and small brands with whom the agency works. “I think it always comes back to the messaging … it’s unbelievably important that brands are looking at their external messaging, whether that’s an email blast or a social media post or a sale, to make sure that it reflects the current landscape.”
Their ability to read the room can make or break consumers’ trust, as we witnessed this summer with brands’ at-times-haphazard attempts to weigh in on the Black Lives Matter movement. While people called out companies for empty pronouncements and black-square Instagram posts that contradicted their internal policies and practices, not posting was also a statement in itself — one that even many apolitical companies wanted to avoid.
“I can’t tell you how many brands were like, ‘We are not going to comment on Black Lives Matter.’ And then all of a sudden, they were like, ‘We need to comment on Black Lives Matter,’” says Carrie Kerpen, the co-founder and CEO of Likeable Media, a digital agency. With the election, she says, brands have to be prepared to shift their messaging and timing based on the outcome. “There’s no guidebook that says, ‘You wait five days, and then post.’ … The overused word of the century is ‘unprecedented,’ but it is. We don’t know. So you have to go with a little bit of gut.”
What consumers see (and don’t see) in the coming weeks will also be determined by ad platforms themselves: Facebook has banned new political ads in the week before the election and for an indefinite period after polls close, while Google will implement a post-election political ad ban expected to last at least a week. The two tech giants — which together control nearly 70 percent of the digital ad market — are making a public show of cracking down on misinformation (though how effective this will be amid all the lies that go viral for free is debatable). In doing so, says Kerpen, Facebook has begun labeling nearly all ads that even remotely touch on “social good” as “political” — so brands won’t be able to create ads that tread near these subjects until after the platform lifts the ban.
Advertising on virtually any channel is also more expensive around the election. Kantar, a consulting and research firm, estimates that political advertisers will spend $7 billion this election cycle, driving up costs and monopolizing prime spots on television, digital, and radio. On Facebook, ad prices were already surging before the election, with costs per 1,000 impressions (CPMs) up 23 percent between July and September, according to digital ad company Revealbot. On YouTube, Bloomberg reports, the deluge of pre-election political ads is outpacing the number of slots available in front of certain audiences, pricing out even some campaigns.
For some brands, the October early holiday push comes back to the pandemic for another reason: They pulled back aggressively on their marketing spending in the spring, when mass unemployment and shuttered stores meant few consumers were shopping. According to Kantar, US media spending was down 19 percent in the first half of 2020 compared to the same period last year. Now that some sectors have stabilized, these companies have extra budget to spend — and with the looming threat of political upheaval, they’re under pressure to meet sales goals.
Merklin says many of her clients are directing these dollars at email marketing and other channels targeting existing customers for the weeks around November 3. “So they’re still advertising during the election, but on more of a targeted or a personalized level because they can do that a little bit more safely than just throwing out an ad on Facebook and not knowing what it’s going to be next to and in what context it might be observed,” she says.
Brands, they’re just like us: They have no idea what happens next.


vox--2020-10-29--How Trump could win the 2020 election through the Electoral College

President Donald Trump is polling significantly worse than he was at this point in 2016 , both nationally and in key states .
His chances of victory in the FiveThirtyEight forecast model ( 11 percent ) are lower than they ended up last time ( 28 percent ) , as of October 28 .
But those chances aren ’ t zero .
So what would it take for Trump to win ?
The most likely victory scenario for the president is a bit of a stretch , but not that complicated .
First , he needs about a 3-point polling @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in his favor in most swing states .
Going off FiveThirtyEight ’ s polling averages , that would be enough to push Arizona , Florida , North Carolina , Georgia , and Iowa — states Biden narrowly leads — into Trump ’ s column .
But that on its own wouldn ’ t provide Trump enough electoral votes .
Trump also needs to win a big state or multiple smaller contests where Biden has a larger lead .
His best prospect for that appears to be Pennsylvania , where Biden is up by @ @ @ @ @ @ @ FiveThirtyEight ’ s average .
There ’ s little indication that this is a particularly likely scenario .
Experts who picked up on signs that Trump could win in 2016 are generally not seeing the same signs this time around .
But it is a scenario that can ’ t entirely be ruled out until the votes are counted .
Indeed , it ’ s pretty similar to the analysis of Trump ’ s path to victory I wrote just before the last presidential election : run the table in the very close @ @ @ @ @ @ @ blue wall .
The difference is that Biden ’ s poll margins in key states are currently better than Clinton ’ s were .
So think of Trump ’ s victory path as 2016 , but bigger .
Step 1 : Trump must win all ( or almost all ) of the swing states where Biden leads by 1 to 3 points Let ’ s start off by reviewing what the electoral map would look like if the FiveThirtyEight polling averages were exactly on target .
Biden would win all the states Hillary @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , Wisconsin , Pennsylvania , Arizona , Florida , North Carolina , Iowa , Georgia , Maine ’ s Second District , and Nebraska ’ s Second District .
That would give Biden a decisive win with 357 electoral votes .
But when you look a little closer , some of those leads for Biden in key states aren ’ t really that large .
FiveThirtyEight has him ahead by just 1 to 3 points in Arizona , Florida , North Carolina , Iowa , Georgia , and Maine ’ s Second District @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and Ohio . )
Poll leads of 1 to 3 points are not safe .
Polling errors of that magnitude are common , and several ( though not all ) swing state polling averages underestimated Trump ’ s margin by a few points or more in 2016 .
Specifically , of the states listed above , the RealClearPolitics averages undershot Trump ’ s margin by 6.5 points in Iowa , 2.7 percentage points in North Carolina , 1 point in Florida , and 0.3 percentage points in Georgia , while they underestimated Clinton @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in Arizona .
Now , pollsters have made some changes aimed at fixing the problems of 2016 .
Many more are weighting for the education level of respondents , since the failure to do this in 2016 often led to underestimating the amount of non-college-educated Trump voters .
We should also be open to the possibility that the polling error could be in Biden ’ s favor this time .
But polling errors are hard to predict in advance — that ’ s why they ’ re errors .
It ’ s also @ @ @ @ @ @ @ late shift of voters into Trump ’ s camp , as happened in 2016 after then-FBI Director James Comey released his infamous letter announcing new emails of Hillary Clinton had been discovered .
But by this point in 2016 ( about a week before the election ) , the tightening of the race was already evident in polls .
So far , there ’ s no indication of recent significant tightening this time around .
Overall , though , for Trump to win , a necessary but not sufficient condition is for Biden @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , North Carolina , Arizona , Iowa , and Georgia to mostly not pan out .
And Biden would likely also have to fail to win the close races in Texas and Ohio where polls show him narrowly trailing .
Step 2 : Trump needs another batch of electoral votes , from contests where Biden has bigger leads , to put him over the top If all those states where Biden leads by about 1 to 3 points do end up flipping to Trump — but Biden wins everywhere polls show him up @ @ @ @ @ @ @ map would look like .
Trump is still 11 electoral votes short of victory .
So a generalized polling error of 3 points wouldn ’ t be enough for Trump .
He also needs to come up with 11 electoral votes from places where Biden ’ s lead is bigger .
Here ’ s the next tier of competitive states , per FiveThirtyEight ’ s polling averages on October 28 : The clearest opportunity for a clean win for Trump is in Pennsylvania — which is the closest of these states and has @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Trump , of course , won Pennsylvania last time .
But polls in 2016 didn ’ t show him behind by as much as he is now .
( The RealClearPolitics average showed Clinton leading by 2.1 percentage points ; Trump won by 0.7 percentage points , so Trump ’ s margin was underestimated by 2.8 . )
If Trump loses Pennsylvania , his path to victory is more challenging .
Nevada is polling almost as close as Pennsylvania , but it ’ s a small state with just six electoral votes at @ @ @ @ @ @ @ win somewhere else as well to get the 11 electoral votes he needs .
Winning just Michigan would get Trump over the top , but Biden ’ s poll lead is 8.3 percentage points there .
Winning just Wisconsin or just Minnesota would get Trump to 269 electoral votes , but if he doesn ’ t win Nebraska ’ s Second District as well , then the election would be tied at 269-269 and would be decided by the House of Representatives .
( It ’ s not a straightforward vote of House @ @ @ @ @ @ @ more state delegations in this year ’ s elections would be able to crown the next president in January . )
But several of these targets for Trump have something in common : They ’ re part of a region that shifted dramatically toward Trump in 2016 .
Polls underestimated Trump ’ s margin in most states in 2016 , but the misses were bigger than average in or near the Upper Midwest ( underestimating Trump by 8 points in Minnesota , a little over 7 points in Wisconsin , a little over @ @ @ @ @ @ @ nearly 4 points in Michigan , and nearly 3 points in Pennsylvania ) .
Note that all of these polling errors were in the same direction ; no swing states in this region underestimated Clinton .
And as David Wasserman of the Cook Political Report writes , it ’ s not clear that state pollsters fully fixed their Midwest problems after 2016 .
Polling averages of key races in the 2018 midterms tended to underestimate Republicans there again , though usually by less than in 2016 .
( One possibility : Voters with @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to speak to pollsters . )
Still , the polls are now bad enough for Trump that he has to hope that , on top of a national polling error that will help him out in other swing states , there ’ s an extra-large Midwest polling error or late shift — enough to tip Pennsylvania or Michigan or some combination of other contests to his side .
That ’ s his Electoral College path to victory .
It ’ s unlikely , but it ’ s not impossible .
Trump may have @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Trump ’ s path to a legitimate victory .
But he may also have something else up his sleeve , based on the expectation that mail votes will be more Democratic-leaning while in-person votes will be more Republican-leaning .
Trump has heavily implied that he hopes to declare victory on election night — and then , if slower counts of mail ballots tip the key states toward Biden , he will attempt to disparage those mail votes as fraudulent or illegitimate .
If Trump goes down this path , he will be trying @ @ @ @ @ @ @ votes in an attempt to effectively steal the election from Biden .
You might be comforted by the idea that state election officials are too professional to let this happen .
But the president is technically named by the Electoral College — and those electors themselves can be named by state legislatures , which in several key states are controlled by Republicans .
So , if Trump tried to declare victory based on phony accusations about mail votes , would GOP legislatures go along with it ?
We can ’ t say for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Barton Gellman ran down some of the more alarming scenarios a few weeks back .
If the legislatures did this , would the courts allow it ?
We also can ’ t say for sure , but two Trump-appointed Supreme Court justices — Neil Gorsuch and Brett Kavanaugh — made clear this week that they believe state legislatures indeed have preeminent power over how elections in their state work .
There ’ s a catch for Trump , though .
Due to the differing ways states carry out their vote counts , the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ red mirage ” — a seeming Republican lead on election night that gradually vanishes as more Democratic mail votes are slowly counted — is only likely to occur in a few key swing states this year .
Most notably , it ’ s the classic trio of Pennsylvania , Wisconsin , and Michigan , all of which have Republican legislatures .
( The mail vote count will be slow in all three because GOP legislators refused to let ballot processing start earlier . )
So in some other swing states , we might @ @ @ @ @ @ @ — where lots of the mail vote is counted quickly but then the in-person count subsequently improves Republicans ’ totals .
This is likely to occur , for instance , in Florida .
And many of the states in which Biden currently leads — Florida , North Carolina , Arizona , Iowa , and Georgia — are expected to conduct their counts relatively quickly .
So if Trump were to want to pursue this ugly strategy , it could only really work if Biden falls short in all those states on election night @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , Wisconsin , and Michigan again .
Will you help keep Vox free for all ?
The United States is in the middle of one of the most consequential presidential elections of our lifetimes .
It ’ s essential that all Americans are able to access clear , concise information on what the outcome of the election could mean for their lives , and the lives of their families and communities .
That is our mission at Vox .
But our distinctive brand of explanatory journalism takes resources .
Even when the economy @ @ @ @ @ @ @ your support will be a critical part of sustaining our resource-intensive work .
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President Donald Trump is polling significantly worse than he was at this point in 2016, both nationally and in key states. His chances of victory in the FiveThirtyEight forecast model (11 percent) are lower than they ended up last time (28 percent), as of October 28.
But those chances aren’t zero. So what would it take for Trump to win?
The most likely victory scenario for the president is a bit of a stretch, but not that complicated.
First, he needs about a 3-point polling error or a late switch of votes in his favor in most swing states. Going off FiveThirtyEight’s polling averages, that would be enough to push Arizona, Florida, North Carolina, Georgia, and Iowa — states Biden narrowly leads — into Trump’s column. But that on its own wouldn’t provide Trump enough electoral votes.
Trump also needs to win a big state or multiple smaller contests where Biden has a larger lead. His best prospect for that appears to be Pennsylvania, where Biden is up by a little over 5 percentage points in FiveThirtyEight’s average.
There’s little indication that this is a particularly likely scenario. Experts who picked up on signs that Trump could win in 2016 are generally not seeing the same signs this time around. But it is a scenario that can’t entirely be ruled out until the votes are counted.
Indeed, it’s pretty similar to the analysis of Trump’s path to victory I wrote just before the last presidential election: run the table in the very close states, and then break into the blue wall. The difference is that Biden’s poll margins in key states are currently better than Clinton’s were. So think of Trump’s victory path as 2016, but bigger.
Step 1: Trump must win all (or almost all) of the swing states where Biden leads by 1 to 3 points
Let’s start off by reviewing what the electoral map would look like if the FiveThirtyEight polling averages were exactly on target.
Biden would win all the states Hillary Clinton won last time, plus Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Florida, North Carolina, Iowa, Georgia, Maine’s Second District, and Nebraska’s Second District. That would give Biden a decisive win with 357 electoral votes.
But when you look a little closer, some of those leads for Biden in key states aren’t really that large. FiveThirtyEight has him ahead by just 1 to 3 points in Arizona, Florida, North Carolina, Iowa, Georgia, and Maine’s Second District. (Biden trails narrowly in Texas and Ohio.)
Poll leads of 1 to 3 points are not safe. Polling errors of that magnitude are common, and several (though not all) swing state polling averages underestimated Trump’s margin by a few points or more in 2016.
Specifically, of the states listed above, the RealClearPolitics averages undershot Trump’s margin by 6.5 points in Iowa, 2.7 percentage points in North Carolina, 1 point in Florida, and 0.3 percentage points in Georgia, while they underestimated Clinton’s margin by 0.5 percentage points in Arizona.
Now, pollsters have made some changes aimed at fixing the problems of 2016. Many more are weighting for the education level of respondents, since the failure to do this in 2016 often led to underestimating the amount of non-college-educated Trump voters. We should also be open to the possibility that the polling error could be in Biden’s favor this time. But polling errors are hard to predict in advance — that’s why they’re errors.
It’s also possible that there could be a very late shift of voters into Trump’s camp, as happened in 2016 after then-FBI Director James Comey released his infamous letter announcing new emails of Hillary Clinton had been discovered. But by this point in 2016 (about a week before the election), the tightening of the race was already evident in polls. So far, there’s no indication of recent significant tightening this time around.
Overall, though, for Trump to win, a necessary but not sufficient condition is for Biden’s small polling leads in Florida, North Carolina, Arizona, Iowa, and Georgia to mostly not pan out. And Biden would likely also have to fail to win the close races in Texas and Ohio where polls show him narrowly trailing.
Step 2: Trump needs another batch of electoral votes, from contests where Biden has bigger leads, to put him over the top
If all those states where Biden leads by about 1 to 3 points do end up flipping to Trump — but Biden wins everywhere polls show him up by more — this is what the map would look like. Trump is still 11 electoral votes short of victory.
So a generalized polling error of 3 points wouldn’t be enough for Trump. He also needs to come up with 11 electoral votes from places where Biden’s lead is bigger.
Here’s the next tier of competitive states, per FiveThirtyEight’s polling averages on October 28:
The clearest opportunity for a clean win for Trump is in Pennsylvania — which is the closest of these states and has the most electoral votes of them.
Trump, of course, won Pennsylvania last time. But polls in 2016 didn’t show him behind by as much as he is now. (The RealClearPolitics average showed Clinton leading by 2.1 percentage points; Trump won by 0.7 percentage points, so Trump’s margin was underestimated by 2.8.)
If Trump loses Pennsylvania, his path to victory is more challenging. Nevada is polling almost as close as Pennsylvania, but it’s a small state with just six electoral votes at stake, so Trump would need to win somewhere else as well to get the 11 electoral votes he needs.
Winning just Michigan would get Trump over the top, but Biden’s poll lead is 8.3 percentage points there. Winning just Wisconsin or just Minnesota would get Trump to 269 electoral votes, but if he doesn’t win Nebraska’s Second District as well, then the election would be tied at 269-269 and would be decided by the House of Representatives. (It’s not a straightforward vote of House members. Whichever party gets majorities in more state delegations in this year’s elections would be able to crown the next president in January.)
But several of these targets for Trump have something in common: They’re part of a region that shifted dramatically toward Trump in 2016.
Polls underestimated Trump’s margin in most states in 2016, but the misses were bigger than average in or near the Upper Midwest (underestimating Trump by 8 points in Minnesota, a little over 7 points in Wisconsin, a little over 6 points in Ohio and Iowa, nearly 4 points in Michigan, and nearly 3 points in Pennsylvania). Note that all of these polling errors were in the same direction; no swing states in this region underestimated Clinton.
And as David Wasserman of the Cook Political Report writes, it’s not clear that state pollsters fully fixed their Midwest problems after 2016. Polling averages of key races in the 2018 midterms tended to underestimate Republicans there again, though usually by less than in 2016. (One possibility: Voters with low social trust are disproportionately less likely to speak to pollsters.)
Still, the polls are now bad enough for Trump that he has to hope that, on top of a national polling error that will help him out in other swing states, there’s an extra-large Midwest polling error or late shift — enough to tip Pennsylvania or Michigan or some combination of other contests to his side. That’s his Electoral College path to victory. It’s unlikely, but it’s not impossible.
Trump may have something else in mind
This would be Trump’s path to a legitimate victory. But he may also have something else up his sleeve, based on the expectation that mail votes will be more Democratic-leaning while in-person votes will be more Republican-leaning.
Trump has heavily implied that he hopes to declare victory on election night — and then, if slower counts of mail ballots tip the key states toward Biden, he will attempt to disparage those mail votes as fraudulent or illegitimate.
Big problems and discrepancies with Mail In Ballots all over the USA. Must have final total on November 3rd. — Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) October 26, 2020
If Trump goes down this path, he will be trying to erase millions of legitimately cast mail votes in an attempt to effectively steal the election from Biden.
You might be comforted by the idea that state election officials are too professional to let this happen. But the president is technically named by the Electoral College — and those electors themselves can be named by state legislatures, which in several key states are controlled by Republicans.
So if Trump tried to declare victory based on phony accusations about mail votes, would GOP legislatures go along with it? We can’t say for sure, and the Atlantic’s Barton Gellman ran down some of the more alarming scenarios a few weeks back. If the legislatures did this, would the courts allow it? We also can’t say for sure, but two Trump-appointed Supreme Court justices — Neil Gorsuch and Brett Kavanaugh — made clear this week that they believe state legislatures indeed have preeminent power over how elections in their state work.
There’s a catch for Trump, though. Due to the differing ways states carry out their vote counts, the scenario that has been called a “red mirage” — a seeming Republican lead on election night that gradually vanishes as more Democratic mail votes are slowly counted — is only likely to occur in a few key swing states this year. Most notably, it’s the classic trio of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan, all of which have Republican legislatures. (The mail vote count will be slow in all three because GOP legislators refused to let ballot processing start earlier.)
So in some other swing states, we might actually get a “blue mirage” — where lots of the mail vote is counted quickly but then the in-person count subsequently improves Republicans’ totals. This is likely to occur, for instance, in Florida.
And many of the states in which Biden currently leads — Florida, North Carolina, Arizona, Iowa, and Georgia — are expected to conduct their counts relatively quickly. So if Trump were to want to pursue this ugly strategy, it could only really work if Biden falls short in all those states on election night and the race comes down to Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan again.


vox--2020-10-29--Exclusive: Biden leads Trump by 12 points in a national UT Dallas poll

Former Vice President Joe Biden leads President Donald Trump by more than 10 points in a national poll by researchers at the University of Texas Dallas .
Fielded a few weeks prior to Election Day , the poll is among recent ones finding Biden with a steady lead .
The results , which are part of UT Dallas ’ s Cometrends survey , found Biden with 56 percent support and Trump with 44 percent support .
The poll — which included 2,500 respondents — is one of several recent surveys showing Biden ahead of Trump at the national level .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ and October 26 , with many of the responses coming in by October 17 .
The survey has a sampling margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points , and its results included a broad sample of respondents that have not been weighted for likely voters .
Overall , the survey finds broader support for Biden from some demographic groups than former Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton received in 2016 exit polls .
Among both men and white respondents overall , in particular , Biden ’ s backing in the UT Dallas @ @ @ @ @ @ @ men in the poll say they back Biden , compared to 41 percent who said they supported Clinton in a 2016 exit poll .
Similarly , 44 percent of white respondents say they back Biden , compared to 37 percent who said they supported Clinton .
Comparisons of 2020 preelection polls and 2016 exit polls should be taken with a grain of salt .
But they offer a rough sense of how Biden currently stands with various groups .
Biden also maintains a strong lead with women .
His 14 percentage-point lead with @ @ @ @ @ @ @ percentage-point lead with men .
That ’ s an indication of how much women have turned away from Trump ’ s presidency , and of the influential role they could play in unseating him .
Biden leads as well among Black , Hispanic , and Asian respondents — lagging Trump only among white respondents .
Turnout among voters of color saw a significant uptick during the 2018 midterms , compared to 2014 , and if this trend holds for 2020 , such energy could give Biden and other down-ballot Democrats a major boost @ @ @ @ @ @ @ than the president in all regions but the South .
The two candidates are within just 2 percentage points of one another in the Midwest , the home to critical battleground states , including Michigan and Wisconsin .
( Biden appears to be comfortably ahead in those states , with a somewhat smaller lead in Pennsylvania , according to the FiveThirtyEight polling averages . )
In the Midwest , Biden is up 51 percent to 49 percent , and in the Northeast , he leads 64 percent to 36 percent .
Meanwhile , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 51 percent to 49 percent and in the West he lags Biden 35 percent to 65 percent .
Across age groups , Biden maintains a significant advantage with everyone except respondents 55 and older , among whom Trump leads by 6 percentage points .
As Vox ’ s Ella Nilsen has reported , Biden has made serious inroads with this group of voters , however , compared to Clinton .
Slight shifts of support among this older demographic could have an outsized influence on high races in swing states with relatively large numbers @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Many seniors who ’ ve changed their allegiance in favor of Biden have cited Trump ’ s failed response to coronavirus and muddled commitment to programs like Social Security , Nilsen noted .
Overall , however , Trump still appears to have a solid base among them , however .
The UT Dallas poll adds to data affirming the continued stability of the race .
Currently , the FiveThirtyEight national polling average has Biden ahead , with 51.8 percent support , and Trump with 42.9 percent support .
Biden is peeling off some @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Biden appears to be winning over a segment of Republicans .
According to the poll , 9 percent of Republicans say they ’ re backing Biden , while 56 percent of independents are as well .
This cross-over support — which has been evident in endorsements from former Sen. Jeff Flake ( R-AZ ) and former Ohio Gov .
John Kasich — could be key for Biden in closely contested states like Arizona , where some Trump voters are turned off by the president ’ s rhetoric and open to a Democratic alternative @ @ @ @ @ @ @ backed Trump in 2016 , 7 percent said they plan to flip this cycle for Biden , and 5 percent of former Clinton supporters say they ’ re planning to back Trump .
Voters who flipped from former President Barack Obama to Trump in 2016 were among those who made the difference in key states like Ohio last cycle .
And their decisions to either stick with or abandon Trump will likely have a notable impact this year as well , as Vox ’ s Dylan Scott has reported .
With the election @ @ @ @ @ @ @ concerned about down-ballot races — and what legislation will and won ’ t get passed in a new congressional term .
UT Dallas ’ s poll found that regardless of which party is controlling the House and Senate , 42 percent of respondents said getting more stimulus get approved is their top legislative priority .
More stimulus has not been a priority for Republicans in the Senate , however , who have refused to take up the House ’ s plan .
And as House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and the White House continue @ @ @ @ @ @ @ new stimulus agreement , it ’ s looking like Congress won ’ t approve another coronavirus stimulus package until after the election takes place .
Second on the list of most important legislative issues was the expansion of health care coverage and the creation of a new public health insurance plan — 14 percent said they ’ d like to see Congress make that a top priority .
Millions of families across the country are navigating unemployment , evictions , and business closures .
The survey results are a reminder that the need @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of expanded unemployment insurance — and state and local support — is still as pressing as ever .
The next Congress will need to work quickly to address these major challenges .
Will you help keep Vox free for all ?
The United States is in the middle of one of the most consequential presidential elections of our lifetimes .
It ’ s essential that all Americans are able to access clear , concise information on what the outcome of the election could mean for their lives , and the lives of their @ @ @ @ @ @ @ mission at Vox .
But our distinctive brand of explanatory journalism takes resources .
Even when the economy and the news advertising market recovers , your support will be a critical part of sustaining our resource-intensive work .
If you have already contributed , thank you .
If you haven ’ t , please consider helping everyone understand this presidential election : Contribute today from as little as $ 3 .

Former Vice President Joe Biden leads President Donald Trump by more than 10 points in a national poll by researchers at the University of Texas Dallas. Fielded a few weeks prior to Election Day, the poll is among recent ones finding Biden with a steady lead.
The results, which are part of UT Dallas’s Cometrends survey, found Biden with 56 percent support and Trump with 44 percent support.
The poll — which included 2,500 respondents — is one of several recent surveys showing Biden ahead of Trump at the national level. It was fielded online between October 13 and October 26, with many of the responses coming in by October 17. The survey has a sampling margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points, and its results included a broad sample of respondents that have not been weighted for likely voters.
Overall, the survey finds broader support for Biden from some demographic groups than former Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton received in 2016 exit polls. Among both men and white respondents overall, in particular, Biden’s backing in the UT Dallas survey is stronger. Fifty-four percent of men in the poll say they back Biden, compared to 41 percent who said they supported Clinton in a 2016 exit poll. Similarly, 44 percent of white respondents say they back Biden, compared to 37 percent who said they supported Clinton.
Comparisons of 2020 preelection polls and 2016 exit polls should be taken with a grain of salt. But they offer a rough sense of how Biden currently stands with various groups.
Biden also maintains a strong lead with women. His 14 percentage-point lead with women is notably higher than his 8 percentage-point lead with men. That’s an indication of how much women have turned away from Trump’s presidency, and of the influential role they could play in unseating him.
Biden leads as well among Black, Hispanic, and Asian respondents — lagging Trump only among white respondents. Turnout among voters of color saw a significant uptick during the 2018 midterms, compared to 2014, and if this trend holds for 2020, such energy could give Biden and other down-ballot Democrats a major boost.
Biden is in a stronger position than the president in all regions but the South. The two candidates are within just 2 percentage points of one another in the Midwest, the home to critical battleground states, including Michigan and Wisconsin. (Biden appears to be comfortably ahead in those states, with a somewhat smaller lead in Pennsylvania, according to the FiveThirtyEight polling averages.) In the Midwest, Biden is up 51 percent to 49 percent, and in the Northeast, he leads 64 percent to 36 percent. Meanwhile, in the South, Trump is up 51 percent to 49 percent and in the West he lags Biden 35 percent to 65 percent.
Across age groups, Biden maintains a significant advantage with everyone except respondents 55 and older, among whom Trump leads by 6 percentage points. As Vox’s Ella Nilsen has reported, Biden has made serious inroads with this group of voters, however, compared to Clinton. Slight shifts of support among this older demographic could have an outsized influence on high races in swing states with relatively large numbers of older voters, like Florida.
Many seniors who’ve changed their allegiance in favor of Biden have cited Trump’s failed response to coronavirus and muddled commitment to programs like Social Security, Nilsen noted. Overall, however, Trump still appears to have a solid base among them, however.
The UT Dallas poll adds to data affirming the continued stability of the race. Currently, the FiveThirtyEight national polling average has Biden ahead, with 51.8 percent support, and Trump with 42.9 percent support.
Biden is peeling off some Republicans
The UT Dallas survey reveals that Biden appears to be winning over a segment of Republicans.
According to the poll, 9 percent of Republicans say they’re backing Biden, while 56 percent of independents are as well. This cross-over support — which has been evident in endorsements from former Sen. Jeff Flake (R-AZ) and former Ohio Gov. John Kasich — could be key for Biden in closely contested states like Arizona, where some Trump voters are turned off by the president’s rhetoric and open to a Democratic alternative.
In terms of respondents who previously backed Trump in 2016, 7 percent said they plan to flip this cycle for Biden, and 5 percent of former Clinton supporters say they’re planning to back Trump.
Voters who flipped from former President Barack Obama to Trump in 2016 were among those who made the difference in key states like Ohio last cycle. And their decisions to either stick with or abandon Trump will likely have a notable impact this year as well, as Vox’s Dylan Scott has reported.
Economic stimulus is respondents’ top legislative priority
With the election fast approaching, survey respondents are also concerned about down-ballot races — and what legislation will and won’t get passed in a new congressional term.
UT Dallas’s poll found that regardless of which party is controlling the House and Senate, 42 percent of respondents said getting more stimulus get approved is their top legislative priority.
More stimulus has not been a priority for Republicans in the Senate, however, who have refused to take up the House’s plan. And as House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and the White House continue to hash out the details of a new stimulus agreement, it’s looking like Congress won’t approve another coronavirus stimulus package until after the election takes place.
Second on the list of most important legislative issues was the expansion of health care coverage and the creation of a new public health insurance plan — 14 percent said they’d like to see Congress make that a top priority.
Millions of families across the country are navigating unemployment, evictions, and business closures. The survey results are a reminder that the need for additional government aid in the form of expanded unemployment insurance — and state and local support — is still as pressing as ever. The next Congress will need to work quickly to address these major challenges.


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vox--2020-10-29--A guide to the Trump administration’s biggest scandals, accomplishments, and policies

Four years ago , Donald Trump won the presidency and our shared reality hasn ’ t been the same since .
The relentless pace of headlines , controversies , and tweets has rendered the country divided and unable to fully recollect the past .
We struggle to recall what this president said or did last month , let alone in 2017 .
Leading up to the 2020 election , Today , Explained will help you remember .
In a five-part series , we ’ re bringing you The Trump Years : a look back at what Donald Trump did during @ @ @ @ @ @ @ United States and what it means for the future of the American political experiment .
The series will explore President Trump ’ s legacy , from health care to the coronavirus pandemic , from the economy and immigration to Special Counsel Robert Mueller and impeachment .
Remember impeachment ?
Subscribe to Today , Explained wherever you listen to podcasts — including Apple Podcasts , Google Podcasts , and Spotify — to automatically get new episodes when they publish .
Episode 1 | When President Trump entered the White House , his administration had @ @ @ @ @ @ @ eight years of the Obama administration .
Much of the deregulating that has happened in the last four years has not dominated the headlines , but it will have a huge impact on the environment and financial systems in this country for years to come .
Episode 2 | On immigration and foreign policy , the president has kept a lot of his promises .
But does a more broken immigration system and shaken alliances really put “ America First ” ?
Episode 3 | After four years of investigations , whistleblower complaints @ @ @ @ @ @ @ still a lot we don ’ t know about Russia ’ s attempts to interfere with the 2016 election .
But one thing Robert Mueller ’ s investigation and the impeachment trial revealed is President Trump and his campaign will go to any lengths to win .
Episode 4 | President Trump failed to overturn the Affordable Care Act in his first days in office , but what has his administration done to change the health care system in the US ?
And months into a pandemic , what state is that system @ @ @ @ @ @ @ have been illuminated in the past four years : From the Women ’ s March to the Black Lives Matter movement , from economic inequalities and a fractured health care system to a shift in the balance of the US judicial branch — and more .
These issues didn ’ t begin when President Trump entered the White House , and they will continue long after he ’ s gone .
So how does the country move forward ?
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Four years ago, Donald Trump won the presidency and our shared reality hasn’t been the same since. The relentless pace of headlines, controversies, and tweets has rendered the country divided and unable to fully recollect the past. We struggle to recall what this president said or did last month, let alone in 2017.
Leading up to the 2020 election, Today, Explained will help you remember. In a five-part series, we’re bringing you The Trump Years: a look back at what Donald Trump did during his four years as president of the United States and what it means for the future of the American political experiment. The series will explore President Trump’s legacy, from health care to the coronavirus pandemic, from the economy and immigration to Special Counsel Robert Mueller and impeachment. Remember impeachment?
Subscribe to Today, Explained wherever you listen to podcasts — including Apple Podcasts, Google Podcasts, and Spotify — to automatically get new episodes when they publish.
Deregulating America
Episode 1 | When President Trump entered the White House, his administration had a clear goal: erase the last eight years of the Obama administration. Much of the deregulating that has happened in the last four years has not dominated the headlines, but it will have a huge impact on the environment and financial systems in this country for years to come.
America First?
Episode 2 | On immigration and foreign policy, the president has kept a lot of his promises. But does a more broken immigration system and shaken alliances really put “America First”?
The investigations
Episode 3 | After four years of investigations, whistleblower complaints, indictments and trials, there is still a lot we don’t know about Russia’s attempts to interfere with the 2016 election. But one thing Robert Mueller’s investigation and the impeachment trial revealed is President Trump and his campaign will go to any lengths to win.
Health of the nation
Episode 4 | President Trump failed to overturn the Affordable Care Act in his first days in office, but what has his administration done to change the health care system in the US? And months into a pandemic, what state is that system in?
State of our union
Episode 5 | Many issues have been illuminated in the past four years: From the Women’s March to the Black Lives Matter movement, from economic inequalities and a fractured health care system to a shift in the balance of the US judicial branch — and more. These issues didn’t begin when President Trump entered the White House, and they will continue long after he’s gone. So how does the country move forward?
Want to hear more 2020 election coverage from Vox podcasts? Check out this Spotify playlist: