vox--2020-11-18--The next Covid-19 superspreading event: Thanksgiving

America ’ s Covid-19 epidemic is at the worst point it ’ s been since the spring .
And experts say it looks poised to get much worse this Thanksgiving and the rest of the holiday season , with a vaccine likely still months away .
The US hit an all-time record for coronavirus cases in a single day on Friday , November 13 : more than 181,000 .
That came just nine days after the country hit more than 100,000 cases in a single day on November 4 .
The weekly average of daily new cases stood above 155,000 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ what it was a month ago .
While testing can help explain why the US is recording more cases now than it did during the spring surge , it can ’ t explain the recent increase in Covid-19 cases .
Between October 16 and November 16 , the total number of tests in the US , based on the Covid Tracking Project , increased by 35 percent .
In that time , the number of Covid-19 cases nationwide increased by 176 percent — a fivefold difference .
The number of people hospitalized with @ @ @ @ @ @ @ More than 73,000 people were hospitalized with the disease as of November 16 , up nearly double from October 16 .
Covid-19 deaths are increasing too : With more than 1,100 coronavirus deaths a day on average as of November 16 , deaths are up nearly 66 percent compared to the same day last month .
Unlike the spring , this surge is a truly national phenomenon .
Every state now has more than four daily new coronavirus cases per 100,000 people , a standard for controlling Covid-19 .
The vast majority of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ now report more than 100 daily new cases per 100,000 — which was unthinkable in even one state just months ago .
Kumi Smith , an epidemiologist at the University of Minnesota , gave me a frank assessment : “ Things are looking pretty bad.
” Even these numbers may not represent how dire it really is .
With the coronavirus , it takes some time — days , maybe weeks — for someone to go from getting infected to actually getting tested .
Then it can take days or weeks for that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ with serious symptoms .
Deaths can take even longer , if treatment fails .
All this data is like light from another galaxy that takes time to travel to our eyes : It ’ s reflective of infections that happened weeks ago , not today or yesterday .
Some experts now say that the US will inevitably record at least 2,000 deaths in a day in the coming weeks , a threshold the country hasn ’ t seen since the spring .
That daily death toll is , at this point , “ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ School of Public Health dean Ashish Jha told me .
It likely gets worse from here .
The holiday season , starting with Thanksgiving and continuing into Christmas and New Year ’ s , will bring friends and family together — sometimes from across the country — in large gatherings .
With winter coming , the colder weather in much of the country will push people indoors , where the virus has an easier time spreading due to poor ventilation .
The flip side is a vaccine is closer than ever , with @ @ @ @ @ @ @ vaccines undergoing trials may be more than 90 percent effective .
The problem is widespread vaccination is still likely months away ; the remaining steps of research and development , manufacturing , and distribution mean the medicine likely won ’ t be in reach for most Americans until spring 2021 or later .
Before then , the country has to remain vigilant — arguably more so , given the current rate of spread — to make sure as many people as possible make it across the finish line .
“ I have become @ @ @ @ @ @ @ months , and far more optimistic about what happens after that , ” Jha said .
“ I ’ m starting to feel better about where we ’ ll be in February .
The rest of November , December , and a good chunk of January are just going to be the hardest months of the pandemic.
” To put it another way : A vaccine may save us in a few months .
But before then , things are likely to get much worse .
The holidays will likely cause Covid-19 to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the beginning of its third Covid-19 surge .
The recent increase appears to be largely reflective of a mix of pandemic fatigue and broader reopenings .
Since the spring and summer , the country has eased the initial stay-at-home orders to open up all sorts of public spaces and businesses , from parks and beaches to schools to bars and restaurants .
At the same time , people have become exhausted with combating the virus — leading them to not only venture back out into risky indoor spaces like bars and restaurants but @ @ @ @ @ @ @ with friends and family .
That ’ s led to more interactions between more people who don ’ t live together and , subsequently , more infections .
Consider New York .
The state managed to suppress the virus after its massive outbreak in the spring .
But as it ’ s reopened more and more — with indoor dining starting again in New York City in September — cases have spiked from a weekly average of 800 a day to more than 4,500 .
And that ’ s with the state ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ still in place .
Less careful and more lax states , like South Dakota , are seeing much larger spikes and outbreaks .
The holiday season will likely lead friends and family to come together even more .
These kinds of gatherings are tremendously risky : People will gather close together for potentially hours or days ; take off masks , if they had them on at all ; and then talk , shout , laugh , and sing while maskless , spewing potentially coronavirus-carrying particles all over each other .
So while @ @ @ @ @ @ @ with friends and family this Thanksgiving , experts have a much grimmer outlook : “ We ’ re going to see much more transmission as a result of that , ” Saskia Popescu , an infectious disease epidemiologist , told me .
That means likely more Covid-19 cases , hospitalizations , and deaths in the weeks to follow .
Winter could hasten spread further .
The colder weather in particular could push activities back inside , where close spaces , prolonged interactions , and poor ventilation make it easier for the coronavirus to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Then , as hospitalizations due to Covid-19 rise , another virus — the flu — could join the fray , further straining health care facilities and workers .
The gains doctors and nurses have made to treat the coronavirus could disappear if many patients are left in waiting rooms , without treatment , as there simply aren ’ t enough medical staff and hospital beds to care for them .
And if the outbreak is truly national , as is the case so far , there will be less ability for other states @ @ @ @ @ @ @ workers to help save the day , as happened in New York this spring .
Doctors , nurses , and technicians will be dealing with their own crises at home .
Unlike countries in Asia , Europe , and Oceania , America never managed to truly suppress the virus , and it has circulated in different parts of the country in some form since the spring .
That ’ s left a lot of coronavirus out in the US , able to spread the moment that people go out and interact with each @ @ @ @ @ @ @ spread makes the high levels of virus already in the community particularly calamitous .
Like many pathogens , the coronavirus can spread quicker and quicker as an outbreak goes on — to the point that cases can double every few days or weeks .
But it ’ s obviously worse for 100,000 daily new cases to double than 10 .
We ’ ve already seen the effects of this in the past month .
The country went from a weekly average of 100,000 cases a day to 150,000 more than three times as @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 100,000 daily new cases .
And that ’ s before holiday travel and winter .
So the milestones of 200,000 , 300,000 , or worse may be even closer than they appear .
As bad as it looks , the country ’ s Covid-19 outbreak stands to get worse — quickly .
A vaccine is still months away .
We need action in the meantime .
The past few weeks have brought surprisingly good news on vaccine development .
Based on press releases from Pfizer and Moderna about early data from their respective @ @ @ @ @ @ @ least 90 percent effective .
That number dramatically exceeds expectations — a week before Pfizer ’ s announcement , experts said they expected 50 or 60 percent efficacy , 70 percent if we were really lucky .
The bad news is widespread vaccine distribution is still months away .
The clinical trials still have to finish , or the companies need to get the necessary approvals from the Food and Drug Administration to distribute the vaccines early .
Even after approvals , it will take time , money , and a whole lot @ @ @ @ @ @ @ vaccine , and administer it to hundreds of millions of Americans .
Realistically , experts said , the earliest most of us could expect to see a vaccine is next spring .
That makes it all the worse that America may now face the worst of the coronavirus , since illnesses or deaths now could be avoided by suppressing cases for just a few months more .
It makes efforts to stop the spread of the virus all the more important .
That may require America to close down again .
The research @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the spring .
Other countries that have faced resurgences of Covid-19 , from Israel to European nations , have also seen success with widespread closures ( often after milder , more targeted measures failed ) .
While physical distancing , testing , tracing , and masking all have solid evidence behind them , they may only be able to keep cases down when they ’ re already low ( not true for the US ) , at least for a time , and only if they ’ re universal ( also not true @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Take contact tracing .
The idea is “ disease detectives ” can contact people who are positive for the coronavirus to get them to isolate , find out their close contacts , and get those close contacts to quarantine .
But that is simply much harder when there are more than 100,000 new cases a day — it requires much more staff , time , and resources .
Even the best teams may not be able to keep up with exponential spread .
Crystal Watson , a senior scholar at the Johns Hopkins @ @ @ @ @ @ @ contact tracing becomes difficult at 10 daily new cases per 100,000 people .
The US is now at more than four times that , and several states are now past 10 or even 15 times that threshold .
So some experts believe widespread closures are now likely needed : People should stay home as much as possible — only going out for basic needs like food and medicines — and not socialize with others from different households .
Large gatherings , including in private , should be banned and avoided .
In-person , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ bars and restaurants , should shut down .
That begins with Thanksgiving and other holidays .
As great as it would be to spend time with family and friends after such a rough year , experts argue that now is still not the time .
Different levels of government could mandate all of this , while offering economic relief to those affected .
A few places , including some states , are already moving in this direction .
But short of that , individuals could try to act on their own , voluntarily @ @ @ @ @ @ @ businesses until Covid-19 subsides .
Still , with the outbreak so widespread , the actions of a few individuals or states just won ’ t do .
It will require a truly national effort .
President Donald Trump and his administration so far have shown no signs of changing their approach , and President-elect Joe Biden won ’ t take office until January 20 , 2021 .
That may leave it to the states and general public to deal with the worst of Covid-19 yet — and both seem , as of now @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
“ I don ’ t think people realize this is the worst it ’ s gotten , ” Popescu said .
So the US could see mounting Covid-19 deaths , on top of the more than 248,000 that it ’ s already seen , right as the country needed to hold off just a few more months to ensure that more people made it across the finish line .

America’s Covid-19 epidemic is at the worst point it’s been since the spring. And experts say it looks poised to get much worse this Thanksgiving and the rest of the holiday season, with a vaccine likely still months away.
The US hit an all-time record for coronavirus cases in a single day on Friday, November 13: more than 181,000. That came just nine days after the country hit more than 100,000 cases in a single day on November 4. The weekly average of daily new cases stood above 155,000 as of November 16 — nearly triple what it was a month ago.
While testing can help explain why the US is recording more cases now than it did during the spring surge, it can’t explain the recent increase in Covid-19 cases. Between October 16 and November 16, the total number of tests in the US, based on the Covid Tracking Project, increased by 35 percent. In that time, the number of Covid-19 cases nationwide increased by 176 percent — a fivefold difference.
The number of people hospitalized with Covid-19 has also hit record highs: More than 73,000 people were hospitalized with the disease as of November 16, up nearly double from October 16. Covid-19 deaths are increasing too: With more than 1,100 coronavirus deaths a day on average as of November 16, deaths are up nearly 66 percent compared to the same day last month.
Unlike the spring, this surge is a truly national phenomenon. Every state now has more than four daily new coronavirus cases per 100,000 people, a standard for controlling Covid-19. The vast majority of states completely surpass that. Nine states now report more than 100 daily new cases per 100,000 — which was unthinkable in even one state just months ago.
Kumi Smith, an epidemiologist at the University of Minnesota, gave me a frank assessment: “Things are looking pretty bad.”
Even these numbers may not represent how dire it really is. With the coronavirus, it takes some time — days, maybe weeks — for someone to go from getting infected to actually getting tested. Then it can take days or weeks for that person to end up at a hospital with serious symptoms. Deaths can take even longer, if treatment fails. All this data is like light from another galaxy that takes time to travel to our eyes: It’s reflective of infections that happened weeks ago, not today or yesterday.
Some experts now say that the US will inevitably record at least 2,000 deaths in a day in the coming weeks, a threshold the country hasn’t seen since the spring. That daily death toll is, at this point, “essentially baked in,” Brown University School of Public Health dean Ashish Jha told me.
It likely gets worse from here. The holiday season, starting with Thanksgiving and continuing into Christmas and New Year’s, will bring friends and family together — sometimes from across the country — in large gatherings. With winter coming, the colder weather in much of the country will push people indoors, where the virus has an easier time spreading due to poor ventilation.
The flip side is a vaccine is closer than ever, with recent reports suggesting at least two Covid-19 vaccines undergoing trials may be more than 90 percent effective. The problem is widespread vaccination is still likely months away; the remaining steps of research and development, manufacturing, and distribution mean the medicine likely won’t be in reach for most Americans until spring 2021 or later. Before then, the country has to remain vigilant — arguably more so, given the current rate of spread — to make sure as many people as possible make it across the finish line.
“I have become far more pessimistic about the next two months, and far more optimistic about what happens after that,” Jha said. “I’m starting to feel better about where we’ll be in February. The rest of November, December, and a good chunk of January are just going to be the hardest months of the pandemic.”
To put it another way: A vaccine may save us in a few months. But before then, things are likely to get much worse.
The holidays will likely cause Covid-19 to spread more
America may be only in the beginning of its third Covid-19 surge.
The recent increase appears to be largely reflective of a mix of pandemic fatigue and broader reopenings. Since the spring and summer, the country has eased the initial stay-at-home orders to open up all sorts of public spaces and businesses, from parks and beaches to schools to bars and restaurants. At the same time, people have become exhausted with combating the virus — leading them to not only venture back out into risky indoor spaces like bars and restaurants but also to host house parties and gatherings with friends and family. That’s led to more interactions between more people who don’t live together and, subsequently, more infections.
Consider New York. The state managed to suppress the virus after its massive outbreak in the spring. But as it’s reopened more and more — with indoor dining starting again in New York City in September — cases have spiked from a weekly average of 800 a day to more than 4,500.
And that’s with the state’s mask mandate and social distancing guidelines still in place. Less careful and more lax states, like South Dakota, are seeing much larger spikes and outbreaks.
The holiday season will likely lead friends and family to come together even more. These kinds of gatherings are tremendously risky: People will gather close together for potentially hours or days; take off masks, if they had them on at all; and then talk, shout, laugh, and sing while maskless, spewing potentially coronavirus-carrying particles all over each other.
So while many people may expect a good time with friends and family this Thanksgiving, experts have a much grimmer outlook: “We’re going to see much more transmission as a result of that,” Saskia Popescu, an infectious disease epidemiologist, told me. That means likely more Covid-19 cases, hospitalizations, and deaths in the weeks to follow.
Winter could hasten spread further. The colder weather in particular could push activities back inside, where close spaces, prolonged interactions, and poor ventilation make it easier for the coronavirus to travel from one host to another.
Then, as hospitalizations due to Covid-19 rise, another virus — the flu — could join the fray, further straining health care facilities and workers. The gains doctors and nurses have made to treat the coronavirus could disappear if many patients are left in waiting rooms, without treatment, as there simply aren’t enough medical staff and hospital beds to care for them.
And if the outbreak is truly national, as is the case so far, there will be less ability for other states to send in reinforcements of health care workers to help save the day, as happened in New York this spring. Doctors, nurses, and technicians will be dealing with their own crises at home.
Unlike countries in Asia, Europe, and Oceania, America never managed to truly suppress the virus, and it has circulated in different parts of the country in some form since the spring. That’s left a lot of coronavirus out in the US, able to spread the moment that people go out and interact with each other again.
The power of exponential spread makes the high levels of virus already in the community particularly calamitous. Like many pathogens, the coronavirus can spread quicker and quicker as an outbreak goes on — to the point that cases can double every few days or weeks. But it’s obviously worse for 100,000 daily new cases to double than 10.
We’ve already seen the effects of this in the past month. The country went from a weekly average of 100,000 cases a day to 150,000 more than three times as fast as it went from 50,000 to 100,000 daily new cases. And that’s before holiday travel and winter.
So the milestones of 200,000, 300,000, or worse may be even closer than they appear. As bad as it looks, the country’s Covid-19 outbreak stands to get worse — quickly.
A vaccine is still months away. We need action in the meantime.
The past few weeks have brought surprisingly good news on vaccine development. Based on press releases from Pfizer and Moderna about early data from their respective trials, their vaccines may be at least 90 percent effective. That number dramatically exceeds expectations — a week before Pfizer’s announcement, experts said they expected 50 or 60 percent efficacy, 70 percent if we were really lucky.
The bad news is widespread vaccine distribution is still months away. The clinical trials still have to finish, or the companies need to get the necessary approvals from the Food and Drug Administration to distribute the vaccines early. Even after approvals, it will take time, money, and a whole lot of planning to produce and ship the vaccine, and administer it to hundreds of millions of Americans. Realistically, experts said, the earliest most of us could expect to see a vaccine is next spring.
That makes it all the worse that America may now face the worst of the coronavirus, since illnesses or deaths now could be avoided by suppressing cases for just a few months more. It makes efforts to stop the spread of the virus all the more important.
That may require America to close down again. The research suggests that lockdowns did reduce cases in the spring. Other countries that have faced resurgences of Covid-19, from Israel to European nations, have also seen success with widespread closures (often after milder, more targeted measures failed).
While physical distancing, testing, tracing, and masking all have solid evidence behind them, they may only be able to keep cases down when they’re already low (not true for the US), at least for a time, and only if they’re universal (also not true) and sustained (nope).
Take contact tracing. The idea is “disease detectives” can contact people who are positive for the coronavirus to get them to isolate, find out their close contacts, and get those close contacts to quarantine. But that is simply much harder when there are more than 100,000 new cases a day — it requires much more staff, time, and resources. Even the best teams may not be able to keep up with exponential spread.
Crystal Watson, a senior scholar at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security, estimated that contact tracing becomes difficult at 10 daily new cases per 100,000 people. The US is now at more than four times that, and several states are now past 10 or even 15 times that threshold.
So some experts believe widespread closures are now likely needed: People should stay home as much as possible — only going out for basic needs like food and medicines — and not socialize with others from different households. Large gatherings, including in private, should be banned and avoided. In-person, indoor services at nonessential businesses, like bars and restaurants, should shut down.
That begins with Thanksgiving and other holidays. As great as it would be to spend time with family and friends after such a rough year, experts argue that now is still not the time.
Different levels of government could mandate all of this, while offering economic relief to those affected. A few places, including some states, are already moving in this direction. But short of that, individuals could try to act on their own, voluntarily choosing to stay at home or close businesses until Covid-19 subsides.
Still, with the outbreak so widespread, the actions of a few individuals or states just won’t do. It will require a truly national effort. President Donald Trump and his administration so far have shown no signs of changing their approach, and President-elect Joe Biden won’t take office until January 20, 2021. That may leave it to the states and general public to deal with the worst of Covid-19 yet — and both seem, as of now, highly resistant to more drastic measures.
“I don’t think people realize this is the worst it’s gotten,” Popescu said.
So the US could see mounting Covid-19 deaths, on top of the more than 248,000 that it’s already seen, right as the country needed to hold off just a few more months to ensure that more people made it across the finish line.


Conspiracy theories, explained

Eleanor ’ s dad loved science — or so she thought .
Eleanor grew up listening to stories of the Apollo missions and audio clips from space expeditions .
Every weekend , the two of them hopped on a train to downtown Philadelphia to visit the Franklin Institute , where they would explore the planetarium , flight simulators , and technology exhibits .
“ It was our special thing , ” Eleanor , now an elementary school teacher who requested that Vox not use her real name to protect her privacy , told me .
That was several years ago @ @ @ @ @ @ @ glimpse a much different version of her father .
“ I ’ m going to a protest , ” he told her in April .
At first , she assumed he was attending a Black Lives Matter march or a similar event .
But no — her father was protesting to reopen the state of Pennsylvania , then under lockdown due to Covid-19 , because he thought the governor was exaggerating the threat of the virus .
Other dissonant moments followed .
Eleanor ’ s father didn ’ t just disagree with Democratic @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , Wolf was “ a dictator.
” Her father started following fringe communities and groups online , arguing that masks were “ a muzzle and a control device , ” a way for the government to somehow manipulate the populace .
Then he began enthusiastically repeating the false claims of Stella Immanuel , a Houston pediatrician who went viral earlier this year for claiming hydroxychloroquine could “ cure ” Covid-19 .
( Immanuel has also declared , among other things , that ovarian cysts are caused by sex with demons , that scientists @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that reptilian humanoids are running the government . )
Once , when Immanuel appeared on a TV news segment , Eleanor ’ s father and stepmother began cheering , as though they were at a political rally instead of at home watching a far-right conspiracy theorist .
“ I genuinely thought , ‘ Is this early-onset dementia ?
’ ” Eleanor told me .
“ It seemed so out of character.
” Eleanor ’ s story of a family member ’ s surprising , sudden embrace of conspiracy theories echoes countless others that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in hand with America ’ s ever more divergent ideological spectrum .
The era of Donald Trump ’ s presidency alone has seen numerous unfounded conspiracy theories enter the mainstream , from increasing numbers of anti-vaxxers fueling measles outbreaks to Pizzagate — the conspiracy theory that emerged shortly before the 2016 election and alleged that politicians were running a child-trafficking ring — to numerous Covid-19 hoaxes .
There ’ s no hard evidence that conspiracy theories are circulating more widely today than ever before .
But over the past five years , it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ bought into them more and more .
Surveys within the past year have shown that a quarter of US citizens believe the mainstream media is lying to them about Covid-19 , and that it is “ definitely ” or “ probably true ” that the outbreak was intentionally planned .
Meanwhile , the headline-grabbing QAnon , a conspiracy theory that evolved from Pizzagate and posits that Trump has been working in secret to capture high-powered figures who are engaged in child abduction and trafficking , is still a niche belief .
But a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is think there ’ s at least some truth to it , and that number is growing rapidly as the QAnon theory begins to converge with Covid-19 theories .
As 2020 enters the home stretch , new conspiracy theories seem to keep coming up .
The latest ?
Trump ’ s baseless claims of voter fraud during the presidential election , which many of his followers are echoing , despite zero evidence , in any state , to support the assertion .
“ We ’ re nine months into the pandemic , ” @ @ @ @ @ @ @ psychologist , and fellow with the Center for Inquiry whose research interests include contemporary conspiracies and hoaxes .
“ Some people are out of a job .
There ’ s lots of uncertainty .
And some people will channel that uncertainty into conspiracy theories.
” But how did we get to a place where previously science-minded and logic-loving dads can find conspiracy theories with ease , and where once-fringe paranoia is now embedded in our country ’ s politics ?
Why did baseless theories about health , science , and sinister world leadership @ @ @ @ @ @ @ why now ?
Let ’ s walk through the factors leading to the current explosion of conspiracy theories — and what we can do to combat them .
The history of conspiracy theories is somewhat short , relative to human evolution .
According to Radford , the first conspiracy theories as we might recognize them now likely didn ’ t spring up until the mid-15th century , with the invention of the Gutenberg press in the 1440s .
Movable type allowed for the wider spread of information — and anxious reinterpretation of that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ have knowledge that is reproducible , but you also have other people who are writing about things that may have a different perspective , ” Radford said .
This was the moment , he argues , in which the first conflicts of information arose over what was true and what wasn ’ t .
Conspiracy theories have most often flourished during times of great sociopolitical upheaval and uncertainty .
“ You see this kind of boom in conspiracies whenever there ’ s political or social unrest throughout history , ” Sander van der @ @ @ @ @ @ @ conspiracies at the Social Decision-Making Lab at Cambridge , told me .
“ Whenever there is significant uncertainty in the world.
” Take the Salem witch trials in the 1690s , another transformative moment in conspiratorial thinking .
These events were prompted by sweeping social and political changes in Puritan New England : frontier wars with American Indians , expanding roles for women , and challenges to religious authority .
The prevailing fear of Salem witch hunters wasn ’ t that the woman next door might be a witch , but rather that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ were gathering in secret , plotting to do evil .
This basic idea of a covert network of evildoers threads through most 20th-century moral panics , from the anti-Semitic conspiracy theories circulated by the Nazis to McCarthyism to the Satanic Panic of the 1980s and ’ 90s .
Conspiracy theories provide people with a feeling of control when presented with troubling and disturbing information , calming our fears of the inevitable or unknown .
“ A lot of these conspiracies detract from some scary themes in the world , ” van der Linden @ @ @ @ @ @ @ coronavirus .
It ’ s just another way to deny reality and having to think about your own fragility in the world .
It ’ s an escape for people who are not so tolerant of uncertainty.
” For people who want a sense of order , conspiracy theories may provide a belief framework — even if it ’ s a negative one .
“ It tells people the world isn ’ t just random , ” Radford said .
“ The world ’ s going to hell , but there is some @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that , in a sort of perverse way.
” Troubling times further breed conspiracy theories on the principle of supply and demand : The circumstances from which they are born lead to their proliferation .
But if conspiracy theories have historically gotten a boost from geopolitical turbulence , modern-day conspiracies have several other unprecedented factors working in their favor , — starting with memes and misinformation .
The modern misinformation crisis allows conspiracy theories to flourish Conspiracy theories are often seen as akin to folklore or urban legends — as mostly harmless , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in the United States , conspiracy theories have much more power than these tales do .
The conspiracy theory can be a political weapon , thanks to what historian Richard J. Hofstadter called “ the paranoid style ” : a tendency toward hyper-vigilant , alarmist , and absolutist beliefs that stem from a combination of “ heated exaggeration , suspiciousness , and conspiratorial fantasy.
” This tendency , which Hofstadter thought belonged only to a small minority of people , now undergirds much of American politics .
Once-obscure conspiratorial ideas are now habitually @ @ @ @ @ @ @ members of his outgoing administration , specifically to create further political tension .
“ Typically , folklore spreads without much intentional direction , ” Radford said .
“ What ’ s fascinating over the past few months and years is the weaponization of folklore and the weaponization of these sorts of legends in which you have , for example , Russian disinformation agencies.
” Social media facilitates the spread of information , giving rise to viral formats like memes .
Conspiracy theories are memetic — they mutate easily and take on new forms @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for social media platforms .
That ’ s why blatantly absurd yet longstanding conspiracy tropes — such as the centuries-old fear that people in power are kidnapping children to drink their blood — can keep going and going and going : These tropes trigger moral outrage , prompting audiences to spread the story , which then keeps morphing into new forms like stories in a game of Telephone .
For example , the “ drinking the blood of children ” trope — used for centuries to justify oppression of Jewish people — has @ @ @ @ @ @ @ high-powered Democrats are kidnapping kids to harvest their blood .
Such ideas , no matter how far-fetched , can keep spreading indefinitely as they transform and reach vast new audiences .
More people are profiting off the spread of conspiracy theories than ever It ’ s not just social media that contributes to fearmongering and the spread of misinformation : Many controversial figures spread conspiracy theories not because they believe in them and want to warn the public , but because they may have other agendas .
Alex Jones , the host of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ perhaps the most successful , visible example of someone building an empire out of peddling conspiracy theories — the more absurd , the better .
But he ’ s not alone .
Conspiracy theories flourish on TikTok , Facebook , and YouTube ( which has long fought a battle against those who spread them ) not just because individual theories go viral , but because their creators can become hugely influential .
“ They think they ’ re given the key .
If you ’ re woke , and you ’ re taking @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , or whatever the hell pill it is , then you know ; you understand what ’ s going on.
” One prominent example is Teal Swan , a new-age vlogger notorious for urging her 750,000 followers toward suicidal ideation .
Swan released a video in May that strongly implied that various world governments had facilitated the Covid-19 pandemic to profit from individuals , and that anyone entering quarantine was “ a herd animal ” being “ controlled by others.
” If you run a Google search on Swan , the results suggest @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , ” thus lending her an unearned authority — a status she shares with many other conspiracy theory gurus .
Another example is Dave Hayes , a Christian writer and YouTuber who ’ s become a minor leading figure in the QAnon-believers community after he claimed that God explained QAnon to him in a series of prophetic dreams .
Hayes and Swan have long built their brands around bizarre ideas ; Hayes , for example , promotes a book on his website that he describes as a guide to prophecy and raising the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ lose by claiming to be authorities on conspiracy theories , and plenty to gain — from monetized YouTube views to lucrative consulting gigs to sales of books and writings .
This brings us to someone who ’ s directly profited from the recent spread of conspiracy theories in an atypical way : President Trump .
Radford has argued that Trump ’ s dedication to spreading unfounded or unscientific ideas is a huge reason conspiracy theories have gained such traction over the past decade .
“ Like him or hate him , Trump has @ @ @ @ @ @ @ theories in a way that no previous president has , ” Radford told me .
“ It ’ s just unprecedented.
” Researchers have found that when Trump publicly endorses a belief , his followers become more likely to believe it , regardless of whether it ’ s factually supported .
Trump has a long history of promoting conspiracy theories , dating from well before his time in politics ; in 2007 , he claimed that vaccines cause autism .
His political career arguably started when he began to spread the false “ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Obama wasn ’ t born in the US .
Conspiracy theories have consistently been key to galvanizing his pious voter base .
His supporters ’ fears over “ illegal votes ” currently serve as the foundation for Trump ’ s attempts to dispute his election loss to President-elect Joe Biden .
Eleanor told me she blames Trump specifically for her father ’ s rapidly evolving distrust of mainstream media , which , like many Trump supporters , he now abbreviates simply as “ MSM.
” Instead of getting his information from regular media @ @ @ @ @ @ @ uses Trump ’ s Twitter feed — which has been dominated lately by the president ’ s unfounded claims that the election was a scam — as his primary news source .
“ It ’ s not even a conversation that you can have ” with him , she told me , “ and this is where I think Trump is so dangerous .
What he ’ s done to just instill that distrust of the media — you can ’ t even say , ‘ Well , here ’ s an article @ @ @ @ @ @ @ said.
’ They ’ re like , ‘ Oh , like I ’ m going to believe CNN .
Oh , like I ’ m going to believe the New York Times.
’ So it ’ s all a lie.
” Eleanor feels that Trump has emboldened this type of thinking .
“ Before , there was maybe a little bit of shame or embarrassment ” in believing that social institutions like the media were conspiring against the people , she said .
But now , many people seem to proudly indulge in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Trump ’ s explicit urging , has claimed that the mainstream media is all part of the big conspiracy .
Eleanor ’ s reluctance to talk to her father about all of this over fear of the outcome is another factor in the inexorable spread of conspiracy theories : Confronting them with criticism and logic seems to only make them stronger and more difficult to quell .
People who adopt the conspiratorial mindset derive three main benefits from doing so .
First , there ’ s an epistemic benefit : Whatever conspiracy theory @ @ @ @ @ @ @ understanding the world and bringing order to random events .
Second , there ’ s an existential benefit , in that the conspiracy theory can distract them from facing their fears about sociopolitical upheaval and uncertainty .
And third , there ’ s a social benefit , in that the conspiracy theory provides them with a community of similarly disaffected thinkers who can validate one another ’ s anxieties and shared worldview .
The epistemic benefit is especially important , given the rise in polarization across the ideological spectrum .
Vox ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ tribal epistemology , ” in which “ information is evaluated based not on conformity to common standards of evidence ” but on whether your community or “ tribe ” advocates for it .
In this environment , Roberts argues , the primary institutions of society — government , academia , science , and media , which used to be seen as impartial authorities — can be rejected if they contradict your tribe ’ s worldview .
A partisan refusal to compromise was once a sign of extremism , but it ’ s now @ @ @ @ @ @ @ tribes .
“ Truth , ” then , is whatever the tribal rhetoric says it is .
This cultish approach to information can directly impact how “ facts ” are transmitted and received .
When people at either end of the political spectrum consider the news media to be biased or corrupt , they ’ re prone to support even more biased , less objective sources of information .
And because those sources tend to embrace conspiracy theories that align with tribal rhetoric , the theories then become difficult to debunk .
Conspiracy @ @ @ @ @ @ @ self-reinforcing belief systems , ” which is also part of why the theories spread so quickly — particularly the political ones .
Often , an emotional byproduct of a conspiracy theory is to make the audience feel as though they ’ ve arrived at a profound new realization about the world on their own .
“ They think they ’ re thinking more critically , when in fact they ’ re thinking less critically , ” van der Linden said .
“ The conspiracy theory provides an access point to people , ” @ @ @ @ @ @ @ they ’ re given the key , right ?
So they ’ ll say , ‘ Well , if you ’ re woke , and you ’ re taking the red pill , or blue pill , or whatever the hell pill it is , then you know ; you understand what ’ s going on.
’ ” People who have bought in often believe they can see patterns , codes , and symbols that the rest of us can ’ t — a false phenomenon called apophenia , which further validates their @ @ @ @ @ @ @ unorthodox thinkers , the conspiracy theory offers a form of validation .
Online , van der Linden observed , “ there ’ s a whole community out there posting the same thing , validating your beliefs , and you get to chat with people with the same worldview as yours .
... You feel marginalized in society , but now you have a group that you belong to and [ are ] affiliated with .
And it ’ s a really strong way for people to feel empowered socially , to connect through @ @ @ @ @ @ @ one far-fetched conspiracy theory , it often becomes easier to accept others .
Even in cases where two conspiracy theories contradict each other , many conspiracy advocates will believe both of them — because they ’ ve found an even deeper rationale to explain the inconsistencies .
“ And before you know it , ” said van der Linden , “ they ’ re wrapped up in this worldview where everything is a conspiracy.
” Believing in a conspiracy theory doesn ’ t make someone unintelligent , ignorant , or evil .
It @ @ @ @ @ @ @ information — and these days , bad information is everywhere .
Many people who believe in conspiracy theories often don ’ t just accept the theory as truth — they allow it to influence their entire life .
“ We sometimes refer to [ conspiratorial groupthink ] as a quasi-religious worldview , ” van der Linden told me .
“ It ’ s not religion , because it ’ s not institutionalized , but it has all the features of extreme religious groups.
” One quasi-religious trait is how conspiracy theories seem to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ their advocates .
Across the US , families and friendships are increasingly becoming divided over QAnon or similar conspiracy theories .
( And lest you think it ’ s a generational thing , it ’ s not ; kids are falling for it , too . )
On Reddit , where QAnon-peddling groups have recently been banned , the subreddits r/QAnonCasualties and r/ReQovery offer spaces for family members to process what ’ s happened to their loved ones .
In a since-deleted post , one woman wrote about having to escape from her @ @ @ @ @ @ @ brought her there for a weekend retreat , in what she said turned out to be an attempt to isolate her and reprogram her into accepting QAnon beliefs .
Although QAnon is not a religion , the theory ’ s community acts on its followers in similar ways , leading some to try to convert unbelievers — or , if failing , to shun them .
“ I think my marriage of 13 years is over because of QAnon , ” detailed another member who said their partner had succumbed to belief in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a discussion about [ Supreme Court Justice ] Amy Coney Barrett and while it started as civil it blew out of proportion so quickly , ” another wrote .
“ My mom called me ‘ pure evil , ’ said I was a demon ... and that all Democrats were killing babies to drink their blood.
” Reddit user graneflatsis , a moderator of QAnonCasualties who ’ s in their 50s , told me that a few common themes had emerged from the forum that resembled stories of cult-like behavior : stories of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ as signs of sleep deprivation due to so much time spent researching and recruiting for the cause .
“ Whoever Q is just kept at it and added more lurid details , ” graneflatsis told me .
( “ QAnon ” can refer to the original anonymous 4chan poster , known as “ QAnon ” or “ Q , ” whose theories form the basis of QAnon beliefs , or it can refer to the beliefs themselves , i.e.
, the QAnon conspiracy theory . )
“ QAnon has the right chemistry , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ” graneflatsis said .
“ Pizzagate gave QAnon a lot of [ momentum ] that lasts till today .
The narrative that these anons are saving the world is so attractive to folk disenchanted with the way things are.
” As much as conspiracy theories can bring people together , they can also alienate people from larger society .
“ Conspiracies completely disrupt the extent to which people care about other people , ” van der Linden told me .
Researchers have found , he added , that “ one of the negative @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are less willing to help others .
People are less willing to engage politically , people are less willing to do something about global warming.
” At the extreme edges of the conspiratorial belief system , this kind of us-versus-them worldview can engender violence .
Graneflatsis told me that while “ there ’ s a subsection of folk who just like [ QAnon ] because it gives them some ammo to use against Democrats , ” the moderators of QAnonCasualties have had to ban numerous QAnon supporters attempting to recruit members of the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Political scientists and researchers who study extremism have warned that QAnon , in particular , mirrors the wider rise in extremism around the globe and encourages its supporters to act on extremist impulses .
Within the past year , QAnon supporters have allegedly engaged in numerous bizarre acts of disruption and crimes , including attempted kidnapping , plotting to assassinate government officials , and committing voter fraud .
In 2019 , the FBI labeled QAnon a brand of domestic terrorism .
But if some conspiracy theories are now being considered forms of violent @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s conspiracy theories are from the traditional UFO or JFK variety .
They seem to be disrupting the lives of more people than ever — which is why there ’ s so much clamor about what , if anything , we can do about dismantling them .
Conspiracy theories aren ’ t easy to stop — but empathy for believers is a crucial first step The knee-jerk tendency most rational-minded people have when confronted with a conspiracy theory that seems absurd to them is to deploy a combination of yelling , dismissiveness @ @ @ @ @ @ @ talk the conspiracy theorist out of their belief .
When all else fails , the rational person may resort to shunning the believer outright .
The problem with these approaches is that they generally make the believer feel defensive , which causes them to double down on their belief systems .
That ’ s not an ideal outcome — especially considering that , as Radford and van der Linden both stressed to me , many people , when left to their own devices , eventually talk themselves out of a conspiracy theory .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ the discovery that their favorite conspiracy theory is actually more fringe , racist , anti-Semitic , or otherwise dangerous than they realized .
This is where empathy comes in .
Radford stressed that conspiracy theories aren ’ t limited to one side of the political spectrum , and neither is the magical thinking that spawns them .
“ If you take a deep dive into any given person ’ s belief system , you ’ ll probably find at least a few deeply held beliefs that aren ’ t based in fact , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a conspiracy theory doesn ’ t make someone unintelligent , ignorant , or evil .
It just means they ’ ve encountered bad information — and these days , bad information is everywhere .
Nearly everyone I spoke to while reporting this story had a loved one who ’ d adopted conspiratorial thinking to some degree .
That ’ s actually how graneflatsis wound up moderating QAnonCasualties .
“ My father was brainwashed by Fox News into this really angry guy that would just shout at the TV all day , ” they @ @ @ @ @ @ @ their dad out of it by applying a cocktail of logic , empathy , and good humor to cut the tension and keep things even-toned and nonthreatening .
One strategy that often works to convince people to rethink their positions on fake news and propaganda , meanwhile , is to discuss the common mechanisms behind the spread of misinformation .
A key to recognizing the lie behind a conspiracy , van der Linden says , is to note that the tactics of spreading a conspiracy theory stay the same even if the specifics @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of a false authority figure , the appeal to an individual ’ s anger and prejudices , and the urgency of the claim — these are all conspiratorial mainstays .
To help spread awareness of such tactics , van der Linden ’ s research team recently designed and released an online game , Go Viral !
, that teaches the player to recognize the factors that help spread fake news .
The game was based on research that found that people who are educated to recognize how misinformation spreads are less likely to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ spread it themselves in turn .
That information might be useful for Eleanor , who told me she wanted to speak to me for this story in part as a form of therapy , and in part because she didn ’ t know what to do .
“ I have one sister and one brother and I ’ m sure [ my dad is ] ashamed of the fact that we ’ re dirty liberals , all three of us , ” she said .
“ We haven ’ t talked about it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ been had.
” Unfortunately , ignoring conspiracy theories in the hope they ’ ll go away , or out of fear that acknowledging them will somehow validate them , may be the wrong choice .
Left unchallenged , a conspiracy theory can create a shift in people ’ s views .
For example , through his research , van der Linden found that even 30 seconds of exposure to a global warming hoax can make people less willing to sign a petition to take action against climate change .
“ And that ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ who don ’ t believe in conspiracy , ” he told me .
“ It ’ s [ not ] only the people who are deeply entangled in this for whom this is damaging.
” But for those who are exhausted by constant ideological warfare , ignoring fringe beliefs and the people who spout them may just be the easiest option .
Van der Linden pointed out that a lot of people , in general , are burned out .
Ideally , he said , people would have “ a network and trust @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the world .
But I think the problem is people ’ s patience has run out .
Political hostility is rampant ; polarization is too high at the moment to create the conditions that are necessary for that.
” Still , he said , an approach of “ actively open-minded thinking ” is the best path forward that he ’ s found .
“ I think at the end of the day , you know , being open-minded will help everyone.
” However , something that van der Linden told me about one @ @ @ @ @ @ @ unsettling and revealing .
The relative , once a die-hard 9/11 truther , has become less radicalized over time — not particularly because of any tactics van der Linden deployed , but because he started a family and simply had less time to do conspiracy theory research .
And this — life simply taking its course — is what Radford tells me may eventually bring an end to the current wave of conspiratorial thinking dominated by QAnon , coronavirus denial , and their ilk .
He argued that there ’ s a “ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ — that conspiracy theories and moral panics have existed for centuries , and while the human tendency to embrace them won ’ t ever disappear completely , it will diminish in the face of political and economic stability .
“ A lot of this is rooted in social anxiety about politics , about the pandemic , ” he said .
“ Sooner or later , life will gradually return to normalcy.
” Still , it ’ s undeniable that we face ongoing battles against misinformation , on subjects from Covid-19 to climate change @ @ @ @ @ @ @ legitimization of conspiracies over the past decade , especially during the Trump administration , has fundamentally altered the way many of us receive and accept information , so that now many people , without any evidence , view scientific method and fact-based journalism as suspicious , and see once-trusted leaders as nefarious plotters .
The damage to the public trust has been severe and won ’ t be easily healed .
And while the idea of a return to normalcy is something many of us long for , it seems foolish to accept @ @ @ @ @ @ @ back to save us .
If anything , conspiracy theories seem to have shifted American society toward an ever-widening gap between belief and reality — one in which a consensus on what “ normal ” is seems further away than ever .

Eleanor’s dad loved science — or so she thought. Eleanor grew up listening to stories of the Apollo missions and audio clips from space expeditions. Every weekend, the two of them hopped on a train to downtown Philadelphia to visit the Franklin Institute, where they would explore the planetarium, flight simulators, and technology exhibits.
“It was our special thing,” Eleanor, now an elementary school teacher who requested that Vox not use her real name to protect her privacy, told me.
That was several years ago. In 2020, Eleanor began to glimpse a much different version of her father.
“I’m going to a protest,” he told her in April. At first, she assumed he was attending a Black Lives Matter march or a similar event. But no — her father was protesting to reopen the state of Pennsylvania, then under lockdown due to Covid-19, because he thought the governor was exaggerating the threat of the virus.
Other dissonant moments followed. Eleanor’s father didn’t just disagree with Democratic Pennsylvania Gov. Tom Wolf — suddenly, Wolf was “a dictator.” Her father started following fringe communities and groups online, arguing that masks were “a muzzle and a control device,” a way for the government to somehow manipulate the populace.
Then he began enthusiastically repeating the false claims of Stella Immanuel, a Houston pediatrician who went viral earlier this year for claiming hydroxychloroquine could “cure” Covid-19. (Immanuel has also declared, among other things, that ovarian cysts are caused by sex with demons, that scientists are experimenting with alien DNA, and that reptilian humanoids are running the government.) Once, when Immanuel appeared on a TV news segment, Eleanor’s father and stepmother began cheering, as though they were at a political rally instead of at home watching a far-right conspiracy theorist.
“I genuinely thought, ‘Is this early-onset dementia?’” Eleanor told me. “It seemed so out of character.”
Eleanor’s story of a family member’s surprising, sudden embrace of conspiracy theories echoes countless others that have emerged in recent years, hand in hand with America’s ever more divergent ideological spectrum. The era of Donald Trump’s presidency alone has seen numerous unfounded conspiracy theories enter the mainstream, from increasing numbers of anti-vaxxers fueling measles outbreaks to Pizzagate — the conspiracy theory that emerged shortly before the 2016 election and alleged that politicians were running a child-trafficking ring — to numerous Covid-19 hoaxes.
There’s no hard evidence that conspiracy theories are circulating more widely today than ever before. But over the past five years, it has certainly seemed like average Americans have bought into them more and more. Surveys within the past year have shown that a quarter of US citizens believe the mainstream media is lying to them about Covid-19, and that it is “definitely” or “probably true” that the outbreak was intentionally planned.
Meanwhile, the headline-grabbing QAnon, a conspiracy theory that evolved from Pizzagate and posits that Trump has been working in secret to capture high-powered figures who are engaged in child abduction and trafficking, is still a niche belief. But a quarter of those who know what it is think there’s at least some truth to it, and that number is growing rapidly as the QAnon theory begins to converge with Covid-19 theories.
As 2020 enters the home stretch, new conspiracy theories seem to keep coming up. The latest? Trump’s baseless claims of voter fraud during the presidential election, which many of his followers are echoing, despite zero evidence, in any state, to support the assertion.
“We’re nine months into the pandemic,” said Ben Radford, a folklorist, psychologist, and fellow with the Center for Inquiry whose research interests include contemporary conspiracies and hoaxes. “Some people are out of a job. There’s lots of uncertainty. And some people will channel that uncertainty into conspiracy theories.”
But how did we get to a place where previously science-minded and logic-loving dads can find conspiracy theories with ease, and where once-fringe paranoia is now embedded in our country’s politics? Why did baseless theories about health, science, and sinister world leadership get to be so popular, and why now?
Let’s walk through the factors leading to the current explosion of conspiracy theories — and what we can do to combat them.
Sociopolitical turbulence tends to generate conspiracies
The history of conspiracy theories is somewhat short, relative to human evolution. According to Radford, the first conspiracy theories as we might recognize them now likely didn’t spring up until the mid-15th century, with the invention of the Gutenberg press in the 1440s. Movable type allowed for the wider spread of information — and anxious reinterpretation of that information.
“Suddenly you not only have knowledge that is reproducible, but you also have other people who are writing about things that may have a different perspective,” Radford said. This was the moment, he argues, in which the first conflicts of information arose over what was true and what wasn’t.
Conspiracy theories have most often flourished during times of great sociopolitical upheaval and uncertainty. “You see this kind of boom in conspiracies whenever there’s political or social unrest throughout history,” Sander van der Linden, a social psychologist who researches conspiracies at the Social Decision-Making Lab at Cambridge, told me. “Whenever there is significant uncertainty in the world.”
Some conspiracy theory terminology Conspiracy: A plot between multiple people to secretly control or manipulate a situation or commit crimes in secret. Conspiracy theory: The belief or argument that a conspiracy exists. Conspirator: A person who plans or carries out a conspiracy. Conspiracy theorist: A person who believes a conspiracy plot exists or is taking place. Apophenia: The condition of seeing or imagining patterns in random occurrences. Conspiratorial thinking: A mindset that makes someone susceptible to believing in conspiracy theories. Conspiratorial worldview: A mindset that permits acceptance of multiple conspiracy theories or the belief that the world is run by one vast conspiracy.
Take the Salem witch trials in the 1690s, another transformative moment in conspiratorial thinking. These events were prompted by sweeping social and political changes in Puritan New England: frontier wars with American Indians, expanding roles for women, and challenges to religious authority.
The prevailing fear of Salem witch hunters wasn’t that the woman next door might be a witch, but rather that a vast network of witches existed and were gathering in secret, plotting to do evil. This basic idea of a covert network of evildoers threads through most 20th-century moral panics, from the anti-Semitic conspiracy theories circulated by the Nazis to McCarthyism to the Satanic Panic of the 1980s and ’90s.
Conspiracy theories provide people with a feeling of control when presented with troubling and disturbing information, calming our fears of the inevitable or unknown. “A lot of these conspiracies detract from some scary themes in the world,” van der Linden told me. “Climate change, coronavirus. It’s just another way to deny reality and having to think about your own fragility in the world. It’s an escape for people who are not so tolerant of uncertainty.”
For people who want a sense of order, conspiracy theories may provide a belief framework — even if it’s a negative one. “It tells people the world isn’t just random,” Radford said. “The world’s going to hell, but there is some master plan. People take comfort in that, in a sort of perverse way.”
Troubling times further breed conspiracy theories on the principle of supply and demand: The circumstances from which they are born lead to their proliferation.
But if conspiracy theories have historically gotten a boost from geopolitical turbulence, modern-day conspiracies have several other unprecedented factors working in their favor — starting with memes and misinformation.
The modern misinformation crisis allows conspiracy theories to flourish
Conspiracy theories are often seen as akin to folklore or urban legends — as mostly harmless, “what if” entertainment. But in the United States, conspiracy theories have much more power than these tales do. The conspiracy theory can be a political weapon, thanks to what historian Richard J. Hofstadter called “the paranoid style”: a tendency toward hyper-vigilant, alarmist, and absolutist beliefs that stem from a combination of “heated exaggeration, suspiciousness, and conspiratorial fantasy.”
This tendency, which Hofstadter thought belonged only to a small minority of people, now undergirds much of American politics. Once-obscure conspiratorial ideas are now habitually deployed by national leaders like Trump and members of his outgoing administration, specifically to create further political tension.
“Typically, folklore spreads without much intentional direction,” Radford said. “What’s fascinating over the past few months and years is the weaponization of folklore and the weaponization of these sorts of legends in which you have, for example, Russian disinformation agencies.”
Social media facilitates the spread of information, giving rise to viral formats like memes. Conspiracy theories are memetic — they mutate easily and take on new forms — which makes them a perfect fit for social media platforms.
That’s why blatantly absurd yet longstanding conspiracy tropes — such as the centuries-old fear that people in power are kidnapping children to drink their blood — can keep going and going and going: These tropes trigger moral outrage, prompting audiences to spread the story, which then keeps morphing into new forms like stories in a game of Telephone. For example, the “drinking the blood of children” trope — used for centuries to justify oppression of Jewish people — has been applied QAnon’s claim that high-powered Democrats are kidnapping kids to harvest their blood. Such ideas, no matter how far-fetched, can keep spreading indefinitely as they transform and reach vast new audiences.
More people are profiting off the spread of conspiracy theories than ever
It’s not just social media that contributes to fearmongering and the spread of misinformation: Many controversial figures spread conspiracy theories not because they believe in them and want to warn the public, but because they may have other agendas.
Alex Jones, the host of the alarmist far-right show Infowars, is perhaps the most successful, visible example of someone building an empire out of peddling conspiracy theories — the more absurd, the better. But he’s not alone. Conspiracy theories flourish on TikTok, Facebook, and YouTube (which has long fought a battle against those who spread them) not just because individual theories go viral, but because their creators can become hugely influential.
“They think they’re given the key. If you’re woke, and you’re taking the red pill, or blue pill, or whatever the hell pill it is, then you know; you understand what’s going on.”
One prominent example is Teal Swan, a new-age vlogger notorious for urging her 750,000 followers toward suicidal ideation. Swan released a video in May that strongly implied that various world governments had facilitated the Covid-19 pandemic to profit from individuals, and that anyone entering quarantine was “a herd animal” being “controlled by others.” If you run a Google search on Swan, the results suggest that she is “an American teacher,” thus lending her an unearned authority — a status she shares with many other conspiracy theory gurus.
Another example is Dave Hayes, a Christian writer and YouTuber who’s become a minor leading figure in the QAnon-believers community after he claimed that God explained QAnon to him in a series of prophetic dreams. Hayes and Swan have long built their brands around bizarre ideas; Hayes, for example, promotes a book on his website that he describes as a guide to prophecy and raising the dead. These figures have little to lose by claiming to be authorities on conspiracy theories, and plenty to gain — from monetized YouTube views to lucrative consulting gigs to sales of books and writings.
This brings us to someone who’s directly profited from the recent spread of conspiracy theories in an atypical way: President Trump. Radford has argued that Trump’s dedication to spreading unfounded or unscientific ideas is a huge reason conspiracy theories have gained such traction over the past decade. “Like him or hate him, Trump has used and benefited from and promoted conspiracy theories in a way that no previous president has,” Radford told me. “It’s just unprecedented.” Researchers have found that when Trump publicly endorses a belief, his followers become more likely to believe it, regardless of whether it’s factually supported.
Trump has a long history of promoting conspiracy theories, dating from well before his time in politics; in 2007, he claimed that vaccines cause autism. His political career arguably started when he began to spread the false “birther” conspiracy theory that President Barack Obama wasn’t born in the US. Conspiracy theories have consistently been key to galvanizing his pious voter base. His supporters’ fears over “illegal votes” currently serve as the foundation for Trump’s attempts to dispute his election loss to President-elect Joe Biden.
Eleanor told me she blames Trump specifically for her father’s rapidly evolving distrust of mainstream media, which, like many Trump supporters, he now abbreviates simply as “MSM.” Instead of getting his information from regular media sources, Eleanor said, her father uses Trump’s Twitter feed — which has been dominated lately by the president’s unfounded claims that the election was a scam — as his primary news source.
“It’s not even a conversation that you can have” with him, she told me, “and this is where I think Trump is so dangerous. What he’s done to just instill that distrust of the media — you can’t even say, ‘Well, here’s an article I read that differs from what you said.’ They’re like, ‘Oh, like I’m going to believe CNN. Oh, like I’m going to believe the New York Times.’ So it’s all a lie.”
Eleanor feels that Trump has emboldened this type of thinking. “Before, there was maybe a little bit of shame or embarrassment” in believing that social institutions like the media were conspiring against the people, she said. But now, many people seem to proudly indulge in this belief; her father, at Trump’s explicit urging, has claimed that the mainstream media is all part of the big conspiracy.
Eleanor’s reluctance to talk to her father about all of this over fear of the outcome is another factor in the inexorable spread of conspiracy theories: Confronting them with criticism and logic seems to only make them stronger and more difficult to quell.
Conspiracy theories are resistance-proof — and increasingly disruptive
People who adopt the conspiratorial mindset derive three main benefits from doing so. First, there’s an epistemic benefit: Whatever conspiracy theory they believe in provides a framework for understanding the world and bringing order to random events. Second, there’s an existential benefit, in that the conspiracy theory can distract them from facing their fears about sociopolitical upheaval and uncertainty. And third, there’s a social benefit, in that the conspiracy theory provides them with a community of similarly disaffected thinkers who can validate one another’s anxieties and shared worldview.
The epistemic benefit is especially important, given the rise in polarization across the ideological spectrum. Vox’s David Roberts has called this trend “tribal epistemology,” in which “information is evaluated based not on conformity to common standards of evidence” but on whether your community or “tribe” advocates for it.
In this environment, Roberts argues, the primary institutions of society — government, academia, science, and media, which used to be seen as impartial authorities — can be rejected if they contradict your tribe’s worldview. A partisan refusal to compromise was once a sign of extremism, but it’s now almost expected, at least in certain tribes. “Truth,” then, is whatever the tribal rhetoric says it is.
This cultish approach to information can directly impact how “facts” are transmitted and received. When people at either end of the political spectrum consider the news media to be biased or corrupt, they’re prone to support even more biased, less objective sources of information. And because those sources tend to embrace conspiracy theories that align with tribal rhetoric, the theories then become difficult to debunk.
Conspiracy theorists have what Radford describes as “self-reinforcing belief systems,” which is also part of why the theories spread so quickly — particularly the political ones. Often, an emotional byproduct of a conspiracy theory is to make the audience feel as though they’ve arrived at a profound new realization about the world on their own. “They think they’re thinking more critically, when in fact they’re thinking less critically,” van der Linden said.
“The conspiracy theory provides an access point to people,” Radford told me. “They think they’re given the key, right? So they’ll say, ‘Well, if you’re woke, and you’re taking the red pill, or blue pill, or whatever the hell pill it is, then you know; you understand what’s going on.’” People who have bought in often believe they can see patterns, codes, and symbols that the rest of us can’t — a false phenomenon called apophenia, which further validates their beliefs.
For those who are already unorthodox thinkers, the conspiracy theory offers a form of validation. Online, van der Linden observed, “there’s a whole community out there posting the same thing, validating your beliefs, and you get to chat with people with the same worldview as yours. ... You feel marginalized in society, but now you have a group that you belong to and [are] affiliated with. And it’s a really strong way for people to feel empowered socially, to connect through these conspiracies.”
Once someone has accepted one far-fetched conspiracy theory, it often becomes easier to accept others. Even in cases where two conspiracy theories contradict each other, many conspiracy advocates will believe both of them — because they’ve found an even deeper rationale to explain the inconsistencies.
“And before you know it,” said van der Linden, “they’re wrapped up in this worldview where everything is a conspiracy.”
Believing in a conspiracy theory doesn’t make someone unintelligent, ignorant, or evil. It just means they’ve encountered bad information — and these days, bad information is everywhere.
Many people who believe in conspiracy theories often don’t just accept the theory as truth — they allow it to influence their entire life. “We sometimes refer to [conspiratorial groupthink] as a quasi-religious worldview,” van der Linden told me. “It’s not religion, because it’s not institutionalized, but it has all the features of extreme religious groups.”
One quasi-religious trait is how conspiracy theories seem to rapidly change the lives and relationships of their advocates. Across the US, families and friendships are increasingly becoming divided over QAnon or similar conspiracy theories. (And lest you think it’s a generational thing, it’s not; kids are falling for it, too.) On Reddit, where QAnon-peddling groups have recently been banned, the subreddits r/QAnonCasualties and r/ReQovery offer spaces for family members to process what’s happened to their loved ones.
In a since-deleted post, one woman wrote about having to escape from her family cabin after her mother and aunts brought her there for a weekend retreat, in what she said turned out to be an attempt to isolate her and reprogram her into accepting QAnon beliefs. Although QAnon is not a religion, the theory’s community acts on its followers in similar ways, leading some to try to convert unbelievers — or, if failing, to shun them.
“I think my marriage of 13 years is over because of QAnon,” detailed another member who said their partner had succumbed to belief in QAnon.
“Today, we began a discussion about [Supreme Court Justice] Amy Coney Barrett and while it started as civil it blew out of proportion so quickly,” another wrote. “My mom called me ‘pure evil,’ said I was a demon ... and that all Democrats were killing babies to drink their blood.”
Reddit user graneflatsis, a moderator of QAnonCasualties who’s in their 50s, told me that a few common themes had emerged from the forum that resembled stories of cult-like behavior: stories of QAnon believers displaying mania, as well as signs of sleep deprivation due to so much time spent researching and recruiting for the cause.
“Whoever Q is just kept at it and added more lurid details,” graneflatsis told me. (“QAnon” can refer to the original anonymous 4chan poster, known as “QAnon” or “Q,” whose theories form the basis of QAnon beliefs, or it can refer to the beliefs themselves, i.e., the QAnon conspiracy theory.) “QAnon has the right chemistry, as far as a conspiracy goes,” graneflatsis said. “Pizzagate gave QAnon a lot of [momentum] that lasts till today. The narrative that these anons are saving the world is so attractive to folk disenchanted with the way things are.”
As much as conspiracy theories can bring people together, they can also alienate people from larger society. “Conspiracies completely disrupt the extent to which people care about other people,” van der Linden told me. Researchers have found, he added, that “one of the negative effects of conspiracy theories is that people are less willing to help others. People are less willing to engage politically, people are less willing to do something about global warming.”
At the extreme edges of the conspiratorial belief system, this kind of us-versus-them worldview can engender violence. Graneflatsis told me that while “there’s a subsection of folk who just like [QAnon] because it gives them some ammo to use against Democrats,” the moderators of QAnonCasualties have had to ban numerous QAnon supporters attempting to recruit members of the community, many using violent rhetoric.
Political scientists and researchers who study extremism have warned that QAnon, in particular, mirrors the wider rise in extremism around the globe and encourages its supporters to act on extremist impulses. Within the past year, QAnon supporters have allegedly engaged in numerous bizarre acts of disruption and crimes, including attempted kidnapping, plotting to assassinate government officials, and committing voter fraud. In 2019, the FBI labeled QAnon a brand of domestic terrorism.
But if some conspiracy theories are now being considered forms of violent extremism, that indicates how different today’s conspiracy theories are from the traditional UFO or JFK variety. They seem to be disrupting the lives of more people than ever — which is why there’s so much clamor about what, if anything, we can do about dismantling them.
Conspiracy theories aren’t easy to stop — but empathy for believers is a crucial first step
The knee-jerk tendency most rational-minded people have when confronted with a conspiracy theory that seems absurd to them is to deploy a combination of yelling, dismissiveness, and logic or scientific evidence to talk the conspiracy theorist out of their belief. When all else fails, the rational person may resort to shunning the believer outright.
The problem with these approaches is that they generally make the believer feel defensive, which causes them to double down on their belief systems. That’s not an ideal outcome — especially considering that, as Radford and van der Linden both stressed to me, many people, when left to their own devices, eventually talk themselves out of a conspiracy theory. They often “wake up” to the discovery that their favorite conspiracy theory is actually more fringe, racist, anti-Semitic, or otherwise dangerous than they realized.
This is where empathy comes in. Radford stressed that conspiracy theories aren’t limited to one side of the political spectrum, and neither is the magical thinking that spawns them. “If you take a deep dive into any given person’s belief system, you’ll probably find at least a few deeply held beliefs that aren’t based in fact,” he pointed out. Believing in a conspiracy theory doesn’t make someone unintelligent, ignorant, or evil. It just means they’ve encountered bad information — and these days, bad information is everywhere.
Nearly everyone I spoke to while reporting this story had a loved one who’d adopted conspiratorial thinking to some degree. That’s actually how graneflatsis wound up moderating QAnonCasualties. “My father was brainwashed by Fox News into this really angry guy that would just shout at the TV all day,” they said. Graneflatsis says they eventually talked their dad out of it by applying a cocktail of logic, empathy, and good humor to cut the tension and keep things even-toned and nonthreatening.
One strategy that often works to convince people to rethink their positions on fake news and propaganda, meanwhile, is to discuss the common mechanisms behind the spread of misinformation. A key to recognizing the lie behind a conspiracy, van der Linden says, is to note that the tactics of spreading a conspiracy theory stay the same even if the specifics of the theory change. The use of a false authority figure, the appeal to an individual’s anger and prejudices, and the urgency of the claim — these are all conspiratorial mainstays.
To help spread awareness of such tactics, van der Linden’s research team recently designed and released an online game, Go Viral!, that teaches the player to recognize the factors that help spread fake news. The game was based on research that found that people who are educated to recognize how misinformation spreads are less likely to be duped by it, or to spread it themselves in turn.
That information might be useful for Eleanor, who told me she wanted to speak to me for this story in part as a form of therapy, and in part because she didn’t know what to do. “I have one sister and one brother and I’m sure [my dad is] ashamed of the fact that we’re dirty liberals, all three of us,” she said. “We haven’t talked about it at all. This conversation has not been had.”
Unfortunately, ignoring conspiracy theories in the hope they’ll go away, or out of fear that acknowledging them will somehow validate them, may be the wrong choice. Left unchallenged, a conspiracy theory can create a shift in people’s views. For example, through his research, van der Linden found that even 30 seconds of exposure to a global warming hoax can make people less willing to sign a petition to take action against climate change. “And that’s exposure to a conspiracy among people who don’t believe in conspiracy,” he told me. “It’s [not] only the people who are deeply entangled in this for whom this is damaging.”
But for those who are exhausted by constant ideological warfare, ignoring fringe beliefs and the people who spout them may just be the easiest option. Van der Linden pointed out that a lot of people, in general, are burned out. Ideally, he said, people would have “a network and trust and support that enables different ideas about the world. But I think the problem is people’s patience has run out. Political hostility is rampant; polarization is too high at the moment to create the conditions that are necessary for that.”
Still, he said, an approach of “actively open-minded thinking” is the best path forward that he’s found. “I think at the end of the day, you know, being open-minded will help everyone.”
However, something that van der Linden told me about one of his close family members was both unsettling and revealing. The relative, once a die-hard 9/11 truther, has become less radicalized over time — not particularly because of any tactics van der Linden deployed, but because he started a family and simply had less time to do conspiracy theory research.
And this — life simply taking its course — is what Radford tells me may eventually bring an end to the current wave of conspiratorial thinking dominated by QAnon, coronavirus denial, and their ilk. He argued that there’s a “fad aspect” to the current trend — that conspiracy theories and moral panics have existed for centuries, and while the human tendency to embrace them won’t ever disappear completely, it will diminish in the face of political and economic stability. “A lot of this is rooted in social anxiety about politics, about the pandemic,” he said. “Sooner or later, life will gradually return to normalcy.”
Still, it’s undeniable that we face ongoing battles against misinformation, on subjects from Covid-19 to climate change, from vaccines to votes. The legitimization of conspiracies over the past decade, especially during the Trump administration, has fundamentally altered the way many of us receive and accept information, so that now many people, without any evidence, view scientific method and fact-based journalism as suspicious, and see once-trusted leaders as nefarious plotters. The damage to the public trust has been severe and won’t be easily healed.
And while the idea of a return to normalcy is something many of us long for, it seems foolish to accept, uncritically, that normalcy will come back to save us. If anything, conspiracy theories seem to have shifted American society toward an ever-widening gap between belief and reality — one in which a consensus on what “normal” is seems further away than ever.


vox--2020-11-18--Welcome to the Museums Issue of The Highlight

In 2016 , a new Smithsonian museum opened on the National Mall in Washington , DC .
Perched on a prominent corner of Constitution Avenue , with a view of the White House , everything about the Museum of African American History and Culture announced its position in the fabric of the city and in the pantheon of the federal museums that dot Washington .
But nothing said more about the museum ’ s significance than the line — the pair of grandmothers who had ridden busses together from afar just to be there , the young couples clutching hands @ @ @ @ @ @ @ hours in the late-summer heat — stretching down the thoroughfare to the Washington Monument and beyond .
The museum was a reflection of them ; what hung in the galleries was their history , and the things that they alone knew and understood .
They longed to see it recognized , finally , and they longed to share it .
The museum ’ s opening-day buzz never seemed to wear off ; the crowds never let up , that day or any day afterward .
In 2019 alone , more than 2 million @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Visiting a museum is an experience unlike any other .
To those who frequent them , and even to those who only occasionally stop in for a Yayoi Kusama show or a “ Bodies ” science exhibition , museums are a cultural amenity and a destination , a place to learn and to see one ’ s self and to be wowed .
In many cities , tourism depends on them ( and vice versa ) .
In March , as the global coronavirus pandemic swiftly shuttered institutions , these truths became all @ @ @ @ @ @ @ History Museum sat dormant for half the year , as did the Metropolitan Museum of Art , the Broad museum , the Museum of Modern Art , the Please Touch Museum , and countless others .
Thousands of staffers were laid off .
According to a survey of museum directors released this week from the American Alliance of Museums , nearly a third of the nation ’ s museums remain closed , and among those that have opened ( armed with sanitizer and prepared for incessant cleanings ) , it ’ s all @ @ @ @ @ @ @ visitorship .
In the midst of the crisis , and perhaps because of it , museums are being taken to task over their commitments to diversity in hiring and collecting , as well as their reticence to show difficult work at a time of wider racial reckoning .
The frustrations run so deep , some are calling for the end of the institution itself .
In this issue of The Highlight , we look at museums at this crossroads , a point at which financial and social failures loom in every direction .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ the nation ’ s top museums meeting the challenges ?
What do they fear ?
We also look at the diversity battles brewing in the museum world ; how children ’ s museums are surviving the pandemic ( or not ) ; go deep on the meditative , and worrisome , experience of museum-going in a pandemic ; and ask why museums are struggling to attract broader visitorship and lagging behind other , newer ways of reaching audiences .
Facing twin American crises , four museum leaders share their vision and hopes for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ diversify , they ’ ll have to change .
A lot .
2020 ’ s racial reckoning has rocketed through elite cultural institutions .
Undoing old patterns means untangling nearly everything .
The joy and uneasiness of an empty museum With tourists nowhere to be found , this is the eerie new reality of New York ’ s cultural institutions .
Who are museums for ?
When the marble corridors feel like fences .
The Please Touch Museum and children ’ s museums everywhere wonder : What now ?
Once tactile and crowded @ @ @ @ @ @ @ what “ hands-on ” will look like now .

In 2016, a new Smithsonian museum opened on the National Mall in Washington, DC. Perched on a prominent corner of Constitution Avenue, with a view of the White House, everything about the Museum of African American History and Culture announced its position in the fabric of the city and in the pantheon of the federal museums that dot Washington.
But nothing said more about the museum’s significance than the line — the pair of grandmothers who had ridden busses together from afar just to be there, the young couples clutching hands, the whole families willing to wait hours in the late-summer heat — stretching down the thoroughfare to the Washington Monument and beyond. The museum was a reflection of them; what hung in the galleries was their history, and the things that they alone knew and understood. They longed to see it recognized, finally, and they longed to share it. The museum’s opening-day buzz never seemed to wear off; the crowds never let up, that day or any day afterward. In 2019 alone, more than 2 million visitors came through the glass doors.
Visiting a museum is an experience unlike any other. To those who frequent them, and even to those who only occasionally stop in for a Yayoi Kusama show or a “Bodies” science exhibition, museums are a cultural amenity and a destination, a place to learn and to see one’s self and to be wowed. In many cities, tourism depends on them (and vice versa).
In March, as the global coronavirus pandemic swiftly shuttered institutions, these truths became all the more glaring. The African American History Museum sat dormant for half the year, as did the Metropolitan Museum of Art, the Broad museum, the Museum of Modern Art, the Please Touch Museum, and countless others. Thousands of staffers were laid off. According to a survey of museum directors released this week from the American Alliance of Museums, nearly a third of the nation’s museums remain closed, and among those that have opened (armed with sanitizer and prepared for incessant cleanings), it’s all for just a third of their former visitorship.
In the midst of the crisis, and perhaps because of it, museums are being taken to task over their commitments to diversity in hiring and collecting, as well as their reticence to show difficult work at a time of wider racial reckoning. The frustrations run so deep, some are calling for the end of the institution itself.
In this issue of The Highlight, we look at museums at this crossroads, a point at which financial and social failures loom in every direction. How are the leaders of some of the nation’s top museums meeting the challenges? What do they fear?
We also look at the diversity battles brewing in the museum world; how children’s museums are surviving the pandemic (or not); go deep on the meditative, and worrisome, experience of museum-going in a pandemic; and ask why museums are struggling to attract broader visitorship and lagging behind other, newer ways of reaching audiences.
Facing twin American crises, four museum leaders share their vision and hopes for the future.
By Victoria L. Valentine, Constance Grady, and Jen Trolio
2020’s racial reckoning has rocketed through elite cultural institutions. Undoing old patterns means untangling nearly everything.
By Constance Grady
With tourists nowhere to be found, this is the eerie new reality of New York’s cultural institutions.
By Alissa Wilkinson
When the marble corridors feel like fences.
By Lavanya Ramanathan
Once tactile and crowded, interactive spaces for families must re-imagine what “hands-on” will look like now.
By Lindsey Norward