vox--2020-11-05--Trump’s gains with Hispanic voters should prompt some progressive rethinking

Election night started with a major underperformance for Democrats in Miami-Dade County that cost Rep. Donna Shalala her House seat and sank Joe Biden ’ s hope of an early win .
Miami has always been a bit of a city apart in terms of Latino politics in the United States , with a heavily Cuban American population that has a tradition of Republican voting and deep emotional and intellectual investments in the Latin American Cold War .
But while Cuba-specific issues are tactically central to electoral battles in Florida , the fact is that even before all the results @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Biden ’ s weakness with Latino voters was broader than that .
In South Florida , Biden lost ground with a diverse Hispanic population that includes many families from Puerto Rico , Venezuela , or Colombia , as well as Cuba broadly .
More to the point , Democrats turned in extremely disappointing performances in the Rio Grande Valley of Texas , even in the context of a large overall improvement in the state .
Trump actually won Zapata County , for example , a small border jurisdiction that ’ s 84 percent @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 30 points in 2016 .
The more urban ( and , in the case of Las Vegas casino workers , unionized ) Latino populations of Arizona and Nevada do seem to have delivered for Biden , so one should not overstate the scope of the trend any more than one understates it .
But there should be some broader rethinking prompted by the breadth of Trump ’ s improvements with segments of the Latino population that one might anticipate would be more open to a conservative message on either foreign policy or cultural @ @ @ @ @ @ @ about electoral tactics or outreach : The professional class of progressives who often shape cultural narratives should consider the racial dynamics of the Trump years and their own approach to intersectional politics .
Biden ’ s weakness with Hispanics is bigger than Cubans Since the issue arose first and most clearly in Miami , it ’ s understandable that a lot of intellectual reactions focused on specific issues related to the Cuban community .
Nikole Hannah-Jones , the New York Times Magazine writer whose work on the 1619 Project has been very influential @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on Twitter that the “ Latino ” construct is a US invention , one that doesn ’ t reflect the actual racial dynamics in Latin America .
Cuba , for example , is a multiracial nation with a history of slavery , racism , and colorism , much of which migrated to the US with the conservative-leaning bloc of Cubans who fled Fidel Castro ’ s revolution .
Andrea Pino-Silva , a Cuban American left-wing activist , went further .
She posited that by aligning with Trump , Cuban Americans are specifically reaching @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
In this view , Cuban Americans don ’ t vote for Trump despite his racism .
Rather , “ Trump ’ s appeal is the appeal of white supremacy.
” There is truth in both of these points .
Many Cuban Americans are fair-skinned , and there is a broader history of shared bonding over anti-Blackness as a vehicle whereby ethnic communities integrate into the implicitly white American mainstream .
But this is not the whole story .
Democrats suffered huge collapses — on the order of 20 points — in multiple @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Valley .
These are Mexican American voters who do not have a history of right-wing politics , and they broke hard against Democrats at the very time the party is having a breakout in the suburbs of Texas ’ s big cities .
Looking at Democrats ’ problems with Cubans and South Americans in Florida in the context of their struggles with Mexican Americans in Texas suggests a different diagnosis .
What if many US Hispanics simply don ’ t see the racial politics of the Trump era the way intellectuals — whose @ @ @ @ @ @ @ white supremacy have gained broad influence in recent years — think they should ?
Over the past five years , many liberals have had occasion to refer to Trump ’ s rhetoric and approach to immigration policy as “ racist.
” I ’ ve done it myself .
Reasonable people can disagree about the details of immigration policy , but Trump ’ s demagoguery on the subject , to me , reeks of irrational hostility to people of Latin American ancestry .
And his broader musings about “ shithole countries , ” frequent @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , and demands that the congresswomen of color known as “ the Squad ” “ go back where you came from ” to me , again , reek of racism .
But at a certain point , one has to admit that not all the people this racial animus is directed at see it that way .
In the famous “ autopsy report ” prepared by the Republican National Committee after the 2012 election , the RNC concluded that “ if Hispanic Americans perceive that a GOP nominee or candidate does not want @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
self-deportation ) , they will not pay attention to our next sentence .
It does not matter what we say about education , jobs or the economy ; if Hispanics think we do not want them here , they will close their ears to our policies.
” At the time , that struck me as insightful and correct .
It ’ s not that Hispanic voters are obsessed with immigration policy ( polls normally show health care , education , and jobs as higher priorities ) , but Republican nominee Mitt Romney @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Hispanic Americans in a way that was just an insuperable obstacle .
Trump , more than anything else , has proven that wrong .
It simply is not heard that way by all Hispanics in the United States , and liberals need to take that into consideration .
They also need to consider how their own rhetoric sounds .
For the past several years , the term “ Latinx ” has been gaining momentum in progressive circles , even though only 3 percent of US Hispanics actually use it themselves .
The word @ @ @ @ @ @ @ having been coined in 2004 and only gaining popularity about 10 years later .
The term is meant to solve two problems .
One is that the Spanish language uses the masculine term “ Latino ” to refer not just to men but also to mixed-gender groups , implying a kind of problematic privileging of the male gender .
The other is that the binary nature of grammatical gender — Latino men and Latina women — is a poor fit for the needs and lives of nonbinary and gender-nonconforming people .
In academic @ @ @ @ @ @ @ suggests itself as an elegant gender-neutral solution .
The message of the term , however , is that the entire grammatical system of the Spanish language is problematic , which in any other context progressives would recognize as an alienating and insensitive message .
As Terry Blas has written for Vox , in actual Latin American countries , the term “ Latine ” has gained some currency as a gender-neutral grammatical form .
Using a word like that would mark you out as unusual in any Spanish-speaking community .
But it ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ basic way the Spanish language works , instead of trying to foist a series of unpronounceable words on it .
Rep. Ruben Gallego ( D-AZ ) , who represents a heavily working-class , heavily Hispanic area in and around Phoenix , advises Democrats to “ start by not using the term Latinx.
” It surely goes too far to suggest the use of this one word plays a large — or even a small — role in Democrats ’ struggles with Hispanic voters .
But it is , if nothing else , a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a tendency to privilege academic concepts and linguistic innovations in addressing social justice concerns .
Among self-identified Democrats , for example , a Pew survey this summer showed that African Americans were slightly less likely than whites to favor cutting police spending , while Hispanics were much less likely .
Statistically speaking , disagreements were associated with age , not ethnic identity .
Self-identified white liberals report warmer feelings about immigrants than do Hispanics .
And on a question that serves as a component of the standard academic racial resentment battery — do @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , Jewish , and many other minorities overcame prejudice and worked their way up : blacks should do the same without special favors ” — white liberals were more likely to disagree with it than Black people were .
Progressive intellectuals have tried for years to coach people to see racism as a disembodied property of inegalitarian systems rather than a question of individual prejudice or bad manners .
That ’ s why the Border Patrol can be “ racist ” even if most of its officers are Hispanic , or why the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ force doesn ’ t debunk the charge that the criminal justice system is racist .
This style of thinking has some real power .
I have often used it to press people to understand the ways in which zoning regulations perpetuate segregation even in the absence of formal discrimination .
After non-college-educated white voters broke hard for Trump in 2016 , Democrats spent a fair amount of time sweating how to win at least some of them back , while many in the media observed that they tend to score high on racial @ @ @ @ @ @ @ within nonwhite communities as well , and in fact , college degrees are much scarcer among Black and Hispanic populations than among the white one .
To say that working-class nonwhites don ’ t care about racial justice would be absurd .
But many of them may not accept the academic constructs of what these things mean .
At the same time , as Biden fell short in Florida , a minimum-wage ballot initiative won with over 60 percent of the vote .
A higher minimum wage is , among other things , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ gap in income , seemingly one that ’ s more broadly popular than the overall Democratic Party gestalt .
The votes are not fully in .
It will be weeks or months before we have all the data to hash out .
But given the prominence of “ Trump as white supremacist ” narratives over the past several years , one question Democrats will need to answer is why some Latinos strayed from the party in 2020 .
They should be open to answers that go beyond tactics and outreach strategy and ask @ @ @ @ @ @ @

Election night started with a major underperformance for Democrats in Miami-Dade County that cost Rep. Donna Shalala her House seat and sank Joe Biden’s hope of an early win.
Miami has always been a bit of a city apart in terms of Latino politics in the United States, with a heavily Cuban American population that has a tradition of Republican voting and deep emotional and intellectual investments in the Latin American Cold War.
But while Cuba-specific issues are tactically central to electoral battles in Florida, the fact is that even before all the results are in, it’s clear Biden’s weakness with Latino voters was broader than that. In South Florida, Biden lost ground with a diverse Hispanic population that includes many families from Puerto Rico, Venezuela, or Colombia, as well as Cuba broadly.
More to the point, Democrats turned in extremely disappointing performances in the Rio Grande Valley of Texas, even in the context of a large overall improvement in the state. Trump actually won Zapata County, for example, a small border jurisdiction that’s 84 percent Hispanic and which Hillary Clinton won by 30 points in 2016.
The more urban (and, in the case of Las Vegas casino workers, unionized) Latino populations of Arizona and Nevada do seem to have delivered for Biden, so one should not overstate the scope of the trend any more than one understates it.
But there should be some broader rethinking prompted by the breadth of Trump’s improvements with segments of the Latino population that one might anticipate would be more open to a conservative message on either foreign policy or cultural issues.
It’s not just about electoral tactics or outreach: The professional class of progressives who often shape cultural narratives should consider the racial dynamics of the Trump years and their own approach to intersectional politics.
Biden’s weakness with Hispanics is bigger than Cubans
Since the issue arose first and most clearly in Miami, it’s understandable that a lot of intellectual reactions focused on specific issues related to the Cuban community.
Nikole Hannah-Jones, the New York Times Magazine writer whose work on the 1619 Project has been very influential in progressive thinking about race, noted on Twitter that the “Latino” construct is a US invention, one that doesn’t reflect the actual racial dynamics in Latin America. Cuba, for example, is a multiracial nation with a history of slavery, racism, and colorism, much of which migrated to the US with the conservative-leaning bloc of Cubans who fled Fidel Castro’s revolution.
One day after this election is over I am going to write a piece about how Latino is a contrived ethnic category that artificially lumps white Cubans with Black Puerto Ricans and Indigenous Guatemalans and helps explains why Latinos support Trump at the second highest rate. — Ida Bae Wells (@nhannahjones) November 4, 2020
Andrea Pino-Silva, a Cuban American left-wing activist, went further. She posited that by aligning with Trump, Cuban Americans are specifically reaching for a kind of aspirational white status. In this view, Cuban Americans don’t vote for Trump despite his racism. Rather, “Trump’s appeal is the appeal of white supremacy.”
The "Cuban Vote" is not the "Latino Vote." Cubans have been sold a narrative that they have a guaranteed path to whiteness, and many will sell out every other minority to get it. Trump's appeal is the appeal of white supremacy. — Andrea L. Pino-Silva (@andreactually) November 4, 2020
There is truth in both of these points. Many Cuban Americans are fair-skinned, and there is a broader history of shared bonding over anti-Blackness as a vehicle whereby ethnic communities integrate into the implicitly white American mainstream.
But this is not the whole story. Democrats suffered huge collapses — on the order of 20 points — in multiple heavily Latino counties in the Rio Grande Valley. These are Mexican American voters who do not have a history of right-wing politics, and they broke hard against Democrats at the very time the party is having a breakout in the suburbs of Texas’s big cities.
More big Biden underperformance in Rio Grande Valley: He's +19 in Hidalgo County early vote, which just posted. Clinton carried the county by 40 in 2016. https://t.co/MSe8UG1bx3 — Patrick Svitek (@PatrickSvitek) November 4, 2020
In the Rio Grande Valley, Cameron County early vote has Biden up 12
Clinton won it by 33 in 2016https://t.co/WLoiGGgLep — Patrick Svitek (@PatrickSvitek) November 4, 2020
Looking at Democrats’ problems with Cubans and South Americans in Florida in the context of their struggles with Mexican Americans in Texas suggests a different diagnosis. What if many US Hispanics simply don’t see the racial politics of the Trump era the way intellectuals — whose thinking and writing on structural racism and white supremacy have gained broad influence in recent years — think they should?
Trump, racism, and immigration
Over the past five years, many liberals have had occasion to refer to Trump’s rhetoric and approach to immigration policy as “racist.” I’ve done it myself.
Reasonable people can disagree about the details of immigration policy, but Trump’s demagoguery on the subject, to me, reeks of irrational hostility to people of Latin American ancestry. And his broader musings about “shithole countries,” frequent requests to get more immigrants from Norway, and demands that the congresswomen of color known as “the Squad” “go back where you came from” to me, again, reek of racism.
But at a certain point, one has to admit that not all the people this racial animus is directed at see it that way.
In the famous “autopsy report” prepared by the Republican National Committee after the 2012 election, the RNC concluded that “if Hispanic Americans perceive that a GOP nominee or candidate does not want them in the United States (i.e. self-deportation), they will not pay attention to our next sentence. It does not matter what we say about education, jobs or the economy; if Hispanics think we do not want them here, they will close their ears to our policies.”
At the time, that struck me as insightful and correct. It’s not that Hispanic voters are obsessed with immigration policy (polls normally show health care, education, and jobs as higher priorities), but Republican nominee Mitt Romney’s immigration rhetoric conveyed hostility to Hispanic Americans in a way that was just an insuperable obstacle. Trump, more than anything else, has proven that wrong. It simply is not heard that way by all Hispanics in the United States, and liberals need to take that into consideration. They also need to consider how their own rhetoric sounds.
The Latinx problem
For the past several years, the term “Latinx” has been gaining momentum in progressive circles, even though only 3 percent of US Hispanics actually use it themselves.
The word originates in academic and activist circles, having been coined in 2004 and only gaining popularity about 10 years later. The term is meant to solve two problems. One is that the Spanish language uses the masculine term “Latino” to refer not just to men but also to mixed-gender groups, implying a kind of problematic privileging of the male gender. The other is that the binary nature of grammatical gender — Latino men and Latina women — is a poor fit for the needs and lives of nonbinary and gender-nonconforming people. In academic and activist circles, “Latinx” suggests itself as an elegant gender-neutral solution.
The message of the term, however, is that the entire grammatical system of the Spanish language is problematic, which in any other context progressives would recognize as an alienating and insensitive message. As Terry Blas has written for Vox, in actual Latin American countries, the term “Latine” has gained some currency as a gender-neutral grammatical form. Using a word like that would mark you out as unusual in any Spanish-speaking community. But it’s a formulation that at least respects the basic way the Spanish language works, instead of trying to foist a series of unpronounceable words on it.
Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-AZ), who represents a heavily working-class, heavily Hispanic area in and around Phoenix, advises Democrats to “start by not using the term Latinx.”
It surely goes too far to suggest the use of this one word plays a large — or even a small — role in Democrats’ struggles with Hispanic voters. But it is, if nothing else, a symptom of the problem, which is a tendency to privilege academic concepts and linguistic innovations in addressing social justice concerns.
Among self-identified Democrats, for example, a Pew survey this summer showed that African Americans were slightly less likely than whites to favor cutting police spending, while Hispanics were much less likely. Statistically speaking, disagreements were associated with age, not ethnic identity.
Self-identified white liberals report warmer feelings about immigrants than do Hispanics. And on a question that serves as a component of the standard academic racial resentment battery — do you agree that “Irish, Italians, Jewish, and many other minorities overcame prejudice and worked their way up: blacks should do the same without special favors” — white liberals were more likely to disagree with it than Black people were.
Progressive intellectuals have tried for years to coach people to see racism as a disembodied property of inegalitarian systems rather than a question of individual prejudice or bad manners. That’s why the Border Patrol can be “racist” even if most of its officers are Hispanic, or why the presence of Black cops on a police force doesn’t debunk the charge that the criminal justice system is racist. This style of thinking has some real power. I have often used it to press people to understand the ways in which zoning regulations perpetuate segregation even in the absence of formal discrimination.
After non-college-educated white voters broke hard for Trump in 2016, Democrats spent a fair amount of time sweating how to win at least some of them back, while many in the media observed that they tend to score high on racial resentment indicators. But educational gaps exist within nonwhite communities as well, and in fact, college degrees are much scarcer among Black and Hispanic populations than among the white one.
To say that working-class nonwhites don’t care about racial justice would be absurd. But many of them may not accept the academic constructs of what these things mean. At the same time, as Biden fell short in Florida, a minimum-wage ballot initiative won with over 60 percent of the vote. A higher minimum wage is, among other things, a powerful tool for closing the racial gap in income, seemingly one that’s more broadly popular than the overall Democratic Party gestalt.
The votes are not fully in. It will be weeks or months before we have all the data to hash out. But given the prominence of “Trump as white supremacist” narratives over the past several years, one question Democrats will need to answer is why some Latinos strayed from the party in 2020. They should be open to answers that go beyond tactics and outreach strategy and ask real questions about concepts and fundamentals.


vox--2020-11-04--What we’ve learned from the vote count of the presidential race Wednesday

Share All sharing options for : What we ’ ve learned from the vote count of the presidential race Wednesday The key swing states remaining in the presidential contest still haven ’ t been called .
But as the count has continued , there have been some indications of who might win overall .
Five key states remain uncalled by Vox ’ s partners at Decision Desk : Pennsylvania , Arizona , Nevada , Georgia , and North Carolina .
The expected electoral map right now is below .
As you can see , Democratic nominee Joe Biden is 17 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ needs to win the presidency .
President Donald Trump , however , is further away — he ’ ll need to pick up 53 of the remaining electoral votes to win .
So Biden is in a good position , but he hasn ’ t yet quite nailed down what he needs for victory .
Two of these five uncalled states — Nevada and North Carolina — offered little new information on Wednesday .
Nevada is scheduled to significantly update its vote count at noon Eastern time on Thursday , while North Carolina @ @ @ @ @ @ @ next week , once all mail ballots are counted there .
But in the other three states — Pennsylvania , Arizona , and Georgia — the count Wednesday has had a few takeaways .
Pennsylvania is all Biden needs , and the count has looked good for him Biden ’ s easiest path to a victory is by winning Pennsylvania — its 20 electoral votes would get him over the top .
And as the count in the Keystone State has continued to come in , analysts believe it looks increasingly good for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ led Pennsylvania in the election night count .
But that was purely an artifact of which votes were counted first .
Democrats voted heavily by mail , and unlike many other swing states , Pennsylvania was not permitted to start the time-intensive work of processing mail ballots until Election Day .
So the heavily Republican in-person votes , cast on Election Day itself , were counted first .
That ’ s why Trump had a large-seeming lead .
But as more votes have been counted throughout Wednesday , that lead has gotten smaller @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is on track to win the state fairly handily .
The Upshot ’ s Nate Cohn wrote Wednesday morning that “ the remaining vote in Pennsylvania appears to be overwhelmingly for Biden.
” And the count since then has confirmed that analysis .
Trump ’ s lead shrank from 700,000 votes in the morning to about 167,000 votes in the evening , with hundreds of thousands of ballots still to be counted .
“ If the absentee votes continue to break for Biden by the margins they have so far—and as we have @ @ @ @ @ @ @ by around 2 points , ” Cohn tweeted in the afternoon .
“ And if anything , I ’ m conservatively rounding down on 2 , ” he added .
Dave Wasserman of the Cook Political Report , looking at counties that have completed their votes , concurred , tweeting : “ At these rates , Biden should finish with a healthy lead in PA. ” And FiveThirtyEight ’ s Nate Silver tweeted that Biden has been winning the recent Pennsylvania votes counted by about 50 points — and he just needs to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to win the state .
Trump ’ s allies , like his lawyer Rudy Giuliani , have pretended to believe there is something suspicious about this shift toward Biden .
But I and many others wrote that this would happen before the election .
And the reason it ’ s happening in Pennsylvania specifically is because Republican legislators in the state refused Democrats ’ request to begin mail ballot processing beforehand .
This is the counting method the state GOP has chosen — one they knew full well would result in a “ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to be doing better than he truly is .
Arizona is not a sure thing for Biden Meanwhile , in Arizona , the opposite dynamic has taken hold : Biden is leading , but the late-counted vote has been favoring Trump .
( Republicans had more of a history of mail voting in Arizona , and tended to return their ballots later than Democrats there . )
Naturally , Trump isn ’ t arguing that the count should be stopped here , because the continuing count is helping him .
Biden had an @ @ @ @ @ @ @ But a release of late mail votes from Maricopa County shrank that lead down to less than 3 percentage points , with hundreds of thousands of such ballots remaining to be counted in the state .
This prospect is why , even though Fox News and the Associated Press called Arizona for Biden , most other election-calling teams , including Vox ’ s partner , Decision Desk , have been more cautious .
( Silver opined on Twitter that those who called Arizona made a “ mistake.
” ) The numbers in the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ not enough to rule out a Trump comeback .
Arizona will likely get a great deal closer , and Biden can ’ t consider it a sure thing .
But Georgia is looking very , very close Finally , there is Georgia , another state where Trump appeared to be leading on election night .
But around midnight Eastern time , the Upshot ’ s “ needle ” — which calculates , based on where the remaining uncounted vote is coming from , which candidate will likely be favored — suddenly showed the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ with Biden perhaps even a narrow favorite .
The reason is that many votes remained to be counted in areas that favored Biden heavily , particularly around Atlanta .
And as the count has proceeded on Wednesday , the needle proved prescient .
The margin in Georgia tightened dramatically — as of 11 pm Eastern , Trump led Biden by just 0.65 percent of the vote , or about 31,000 votes .
According to Georgia ’ s secretary of state , there are about 90,000 ballots left to be counted .
Biden is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ counties .
It ’ s not yet clear whether that will be enough to put him in a very small lead — but it ’ s looking like Georgia could be very close indeed .
So close that a recount is possible .
If Georgia ’ s 16 electoral votes went to Biden and the remaining states stayed uncalled for now , Biden would be at 269 electoral votes — just one short of the magic number .
Obviously , Pennsylvania or Arizona would put him over the top , but if Biden @ @ @ @ @ @ @ could also get above 270 by winning Nevada ( or North Carolina , but that seems less likely ) .
So , again , the Trump victory scenario hasn ’ t yet been ruled out .
But a lot would have to go right for the president in these five remaining states .
He can ’ t afford to lose many more of them .

The key swing states remaining in the presidential contest still haven’t been called. But as the count has continued, there have been some indications of who might win overall.
Five key states remain uncalled by Vox’s partners at Decision Desk: Pennsylvania, Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, and North Carolina. The expected electoral map right now is below. As you can see, Democratic nominee Joe Biden is 17 electoral votes away from the 270 he needs to win the presidency. President Donald Trump, however, is further away — he’ll need to pick up 53 of the remaining electoral votes to win.
So Biden is in a good position, but he hasn’t yet quite nailed down what he needs for victory.
Two of these five uncalled states — Nevada and North Carolina — offered little new information on Wednesday. Nevada is scheduled to significantly update its vote count at noon Eastern time on Thursday, while North Carolina may not update it at all until next week, once all mail ballots are counted there.
But in the other three states — Pennsylvania, Arizona, and Georgia — the count Wednesday has had a few takeaways.
Pennsylvania is all Biden needs, and the count has looked good for him
Biden’s easiest path to a victory is by winning Pennsylvania — its 20 electoral votes would get him over the top. And as the count in the Keystone State has continued to come in, analysts believe it looks increasingly good for Biden.
As was expected, Trump led Pennsylvania in the election night count. But that was purely an artifact of which votes were counted first. Democrats voted heavily by mail, and unlike many other swing states, Pennsylvania was not permitted to start the time-intensive work of processing mail ballots until Election Day. So the heavily Republican in-person votes, cast on Election Day itself, were counted first. That’s why Trump had a large-seeming lead.
But as more votes have been counted throughout Wednesday, that lead has gotten smaller and smaller — and analysts believe Biden is on track to win the state fairly handily.
The Upshot’s Nate Cohn wrote Wednesday morning that “the remaining vote in Pennsylvania appears to be overwhelmingly for Biden.” And the count since then has confirmed that analysis. Trump’s lead shrank from 700,000 votes in the morning to about 167,000 votes in the evening, with hundreds of thousands of ballots still to be counted.
“If the absentee votes continue to break for Biden by the margins they have so far—and as we have every reason to expect—then Biden would win by around 2 points,” Cohn tweeted in the afternoon. “And if anything, I’m conservatively rounding down on 2,” he added.
Dave Wasserman of the Cook Political Report, looking at counties that have completed their votes, concurred, tweeting: “At these rates, Biden should finish with a healthy lead in PA.”
And FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver tweeted that Biden has been winning the recent Pennsylvania votes counted by about 50 points — and he just needs to win them by 22 points going forward to win the state.
Trump’s allies, like his lawyer Rudy Giuliani, have pretended to believe there is something suspicious about this shift toward Biden. But I and many others wrote that this would happen before the election. And the reason it’s happening in Pennsylvania specifically is because Republican legislators in the state refused Democrats’ request to begin mail ballot processing beforehand. This is the counting method the state GOP has chosen — one they knew full well would result in a “red mirage” where Trump initially appeared to be doing better than he truly is.
Arizona is not a sure thing for Biden
Meanwhile, in Arizona, the opposite dynamic has taken hold: Biden is leading, but the late-counted vote has been favoring Trump. (Republicans had more of a history of mail voting in Arizona, and tended to return their ballots later than Democrats there.) Naturally, Trump isn’t arguing that the count should be stopped here, because the continuing count is helping him.
Biden had an impressive-looking lead in Arizona Wednesday morning. But a release of late mail votes from Maricopa County shrank that lead down to less than 3 percentage points, with hundreds of thousands of such ballots remaining to be counted in the state.
This prospect is why, even though Fox News and the Associated Press called Arizona for Biden, most other election-calling teams, including Vox’s partner, Decision Desk, have been more cautious. (Silver opined on Twitter that those who called Arizona made a “mistake.”)
The numbers in the late mail vote so far are simply not enough to rule out a Trump comeback. Arizona will likely get a great deal closer, and Biden can’t consider it a sure thing.
But Georgia is looking very, very close
Finally, there is Georgia, another state where Trump appeared to be leading on election night. But around midnight Eastern time, the Upshot’s “needle” — which calculates, based on where the remaining uncounted vote is coming from, which candidate will likely be favored — suddenly showed the outcome expected to be quite close, with Biden perhaps even a narrow favorite.
The reason is that many votes remained to be counted in areas that favored Biden heavily, particularly around Atlanta. And as the count has proceeded on Wednesday, the needle proved prescient. The margin in Georgia tightened dramatically — as of 11 pm Eastern, Trump led Biden by just 0.65 percent of the vote, or about 31,000 votes.
According to Georgia’s secretary of state, there are about 90,000 ballots left to be counted. Biden is expected to be favored strongly in these counties. It’s not yet clear whether that will be enough to put him in a very small lead — but it’s looking like Georgia could be very close indeed. So close that a recount is possible.
If Georgia’s 16 electoral votes went to Biden and the remaining states stayed uncalled for now, Biden would be at 269 electoral votes — just one short of the magic number. Obviously, Pennsylvania or Arizona would put him over the top, but if Biden falls short in those states, he could also get above 270 by winning Nevada (or North Carolina, but that seems less likely).
So, again, the Trump victory scenario hasn’t yet been ruled out. But a lot would have to go right for the president in these five remaining states. He can’t afford to lose many more of them.


vox--2020-11-04--Hispanic voters helped decide the election — and not just in Miami-Dade

As results from Election Day began to roll in , it was clear that former Vice President Joe Biden met a mixed reception from Hispanic voters in some key states where they make up a significant portion of the electorate — a result that has ignited a debate in the Democratic Party about what he could have done to better appeal to such voters , who are critical to the party ’ s coalition .
Hispanic voters in America — whose political leanings vary with gender , generation , country of origin , religion , and how long they have @ @ @ @ @ @ @ simple explanations , and this year proved no exception .
Arizona remains close , but Hispanics , mobilized by grassroots groups that have been active in the state for years , have made the race competitive for Biden .
On the other hand , Biden drastically underperformed among Hispanic voters in Florida , who hail from all over Latin America and hold diverse political views .
That seemed to confirm longtime Democratic fears about a perceived weakness in his campaign outreach to Hispanic communities , a mistake that , combined with his failure @ @ @ @ @ @ @ cost him the state .
In Texas , predominantly Hispanic border counties , previously considered Democratic strongholds , also swung dramatically toward President Trump , and , absent sufficient margins in the suburbs , Biden failed to turn the state blue .
Hispanics have also swayed the results in Nevada and Wisconsin .
Here ’ s what we know so far about how they have voted : Though the race has yet to be called , Hispanics could prove pivotal in bringing home a win for Biden in Arizona , a state that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ but one since 1952 .
His campaign had aimed to win 70 percent of the Hispanic vote — the same percentage that Sen. Kyrsten Sinema , the first Democrat to win a Senate seat in Arizona in decades , won in her 2018 race .
And preliminary data from the polling firm Latino Decisions suggested that the predominantly Mexican American Hispanic population had , in fact , backed him by that overwhelming proportion .
Biden is on track to flip Maricopa County , where onetime Sheriff Joe Arpaio once used his department to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 6 points with between 81 and 97 percent of the vote reported .
( Hillary Clinton lost the county , which is the most populous in the state , by about 3 points . )
Biden also appears to be ahead in Pima County , which encompasses Tucson and where there is a large Hispanic population , racking up bigger margins than Clinton .
It ’ s the product of grassroots organizing in the state ’ s Hispanic community for the better part of a decade , driven in part by SB 1070 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ legislature in 2010 and was one of the “ most restrictive anti-immigration bills in the country , ” as my colleague Li Zhou explains .
Though the most controversial parts of the law have since been invalidated by the courts , it previously allowed police to stop anyone who they believed was an unauthorized immigrant and request that they provide their papers , leading to racial profiling .
Democrats have called for replicating the grassroots efforts to engage Arizona ’ s Hispanic voters in other states with large Hispanic populations , including Texas @ @ @ @ @ @ @ than any Democrat has in decades , but he still lost by 5 points to Trump .
That loss was in part due to his drastic underperformance in South Texas counties along the US-Mexico border , where voters are overwhelmingly Hispanic and primarily of Mexican descent .
Those counties have historically been neglected by politicians at both the state and national level , and this year was no exception : The Biden campaign waited until the final weeks before Election Day to conduct in-person outreach .
As compared to Hillary Clinton in 2016 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in Cameron , Starr , Hidalgo , Webb , and Maverick counties , despite a significant jump in turnout .
In Hidalgo County , the largest county in the Rio Grande Valley , where Hispanics make up 92 percent of the population , Biden won by 18 points with more than 219,000 people casting votes .
Clinton had won the county by a whopping 40-point margin just four years ago , though only 167,000 people voted that year .
Trump also flipped Zapata County , improving his performance by 38 points since 2016 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of about 1,000 votes .
It remains to be seen whether Joe Biden has won Nevada , which would help him reach the 270 electoral votes necessary to become the next US president .
Hispanics , who make up about 19 percent of eligible voters in the state and about 70 percent of whom are of Mexican heritage , could significantly influence the outcome .
Former Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid , a Democrat , had built a political machine in Nevada that successfully boosted turnout among Hispanics , delivering Clinton a narrow @ @ @ @ @ @ @ That machine relied in part on an alliance with the largest union in the state , the Culinary Union , which represents Hispanics working on the Las Vegas Strip .
But due to business closures amid the pandemic , many Culinary Union workers lost their jobs , which some Democrats feared could limit the political influence of the union .
With about 84 to 99 percent of the vote reported , Biden appears to have held the same share of the votes as Clinton in Clark County , which encompasses Las Vegas .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ over Clinton ’ s performance in Washoe County , which is about a quarter Hispanic .
Biden carried Hispanics in Florida — but not by significant enough margins to win the state .
He underperformed in South and Central Florida , including in Miami-Dade County and Osceola County , home to the city of Orlando .
Biden won Miami-Dade County by only 7 points , as compared to Clinton ’ s 30-point margin in 2016 .
It ’ s clear that Trump made headway among the county ’ s diverse Hispanic population , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ voters .
Cuban Americans are the largest contingent among those voters and have historically leaned more Republican than Hispanics from other countries of origin , embittered by John F. Kennedy ’ s withdrawal of support for an operation against dictator Fidel Castro at Cuba ’ s Bay of Pigs decades ago .
But the county also has significant Colombian , Haitian , Nicaraguan , and Venezuelan communities .
Biden also won by 14 points in Osceola County , where Hispanics account for 48 percent of registered voters and Clinton won by 25 points @ @ @ @ @ @ @ appeal to Hispanic evangelicals in the county , who are primarily Puerto Rican .
Those gains for Trump — and Biden ’ s failure to make up for those losses in other parts of the state — were significant enough to tip Florida in the president ’ s favor in a tight contest .
The Trump campaign had spent months investing heavily in eroding Biden ’ s margins in Florida , casting him as a socialist and capitalizing on the fears of Hispanics from failed socialist regimes .
( Biden has run as @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Sen. Bernie Sanders ’ s brand of democratic socialism has little relationship to the regimes in Cuba and Venezuela . )
What ’ s more , disinformation campaigns permeated Florida Hispanics ’ WhatsApp chats , Facebook feeds , and radio programs , falsely claiming , for example , that Biden has a pedophilia problem .
Though Hispanics don ’ t make up a large proportion of the electorate in Wisconsin ( roughly 7 percent ) , they proved essential in delivering Biden a narrow victory in the state , which has significant Mexican @ @ @ @ @ @ @ American communities .
Hispanics appeared to sway the vote in Biden ’ s favor in Milwaukee and Dane counties , where he racked up massive margins of 40 and 53 points , respectively .
While total turnout is still unclear , some 46,000 Hispanics cast early votes in the state , up from about 17,000 in 2016 , and 57 percent of those votes were cast by women .
Local Democratic activists had sought to appeal to Hispanic voters in the state , condemning the Trump administration ’ s immigration policies and handling @ @ @ @ @ @ @

As results from Election Day began to roll in, it was clear that former Vice President Joe Biden met a mixed reception from Hispanic voters in some key states where they make up a significant portion of the electorate — a result that has ignited a debate in the Democratic Party about what he could have done to better appeal to such voters, who are critical to the party’s coalition.
Hispanic voters in America — whose political leanings vary with gender, generation, country of origin, religion, and how long they have lived in the US — often defy simple explanations, and this year proved no exception.
Arizona remains close, but Hispanics, mobilized by grassroots groups that have been active in the state for years, have made the race competitive for Biden.
Related Joe Biden has already gotten the most votes of any presidential candidate ever
On the other hand, Biden drastically underperformed among Hispanic voters in Florida, who hail from all over Latin America and hold diverse political views. That seemed to confirm longtime Democratic fears about a perceived weakness in his campaign outreach to Hispanic communities, a mistake that, combined with his failure to maintain support among white voters, cost him the state.
In Texas, predominantly Hispanic border counties, previously considered Democratic strongholds, also swung dramatically toward President Trump, and, absent sufficient margins in the suburbs, Biden failed to turn the state blue.
Hispanics have also swayed the results in Nevada and Wisconsin. Here’s what we know so far about how they have voted:
Arizona
Though the race has yet to be called, Hispanics could prove pivotal in bringing home a win for Biden in Arizona, a state that the Republican candidate has carried every year but one since 1952.
His campaign had aimed to win 70 percent of the Hispanic vote — the same percentage that Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, the first Democrat to win a Senate seat in Arizona in decades, won in her 2018 race. And preliminary data from the polling firm Latino Decisions suggested that the predominantly Mexican American Hispanic population had, in fact, backed him by that overwhelming proportion.
Biden is on track to flip Maricopa County, where onetime Sheriff Joe Arpaio once used his department to target Hispanics. He is ahead by 6 points with between 81 and 97 percent of the vote reported. (Hillary Clinton lost the county, which is the most populous in the state, by about 3 points.)
Biden also appears to be ahead in Pima County, which encompasses Tucson and where there is a large Hispanic population, racking up bigger margins than Clinton.
It’s the product of grassroots organizing in the state’s Hispanic community for the better part of a decade, driven in part by SB 1070, which was passed by the state legislature in 2010 and was one of the “most restrictive anti-immigration bills in the country,” as my colleague Li Zhou explains. Though the most controversial parts of the law have since been invalidated by the courts, it previously allowed police to stop anyone who they believed was an unauthorized immigrant and request that they provide their papers, leading to racial profiling.
Democrats have called for replicating the grassroots efforts to engage Arizona’s Hispanic voters in other states with large Hispanic populations, including Texas.
Texas
Biden came closer to flipping Texas than any Democrat has in decades, but he still lost by 5 points to Trump. That loss was in part due to his drastic underperformance in South Texas counties along the US-Mexico border, where voters are overwhelmingly Hispanic and primarily of Mexican descent. Those counties have historically been neglected by politicians at both the state and national level, and this year was no exception: The Biden campaign waited until the final weeks before Election Day to conduct in-person outreach.
As compared to Hillary Clinton in 2016, Biden won by substantially slimmer margins in Cameron, Starr, Hidalgo, Webb, and Maverick counties, despite a significant jump in turnout. In Hidalgo County, the largest county in the Rio Grande Valley, where Hispanics make up 92 percent of the population, Biden won by 18 points with more than 219,000 people casting votes. Clinton had won the county by a whopping 40-point margin just four years ago, though only 167,000 people voted that year.
Trump also flipped Zapata County, improving his performance by 38 points since 2016, though that only represented a swing of about 1,000 votes.
Nevada
It remains to be seen whether Joe Biden has won Nevada, which would help him reach the 270 electoral votes necessary to become the next US president. Hispanics, who make up about 19 percent of eligible voters in the state and about 70 percent of whom are of Mexican heritage, could significantly influence the outcome.
Former Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, a Democrat, had built a political machine in Nevada that successfully boosted turnout among Hispanics, delivering Clinton a narrow win in the state in 2016. That machine relied in part on an alliance with the largest union in the state, the Culinary Union, which represents Hispanics working on the Las Vegas Strip. But due to business closures amid the pandemic, many Culinary Union workers lost their jobs, which some Democrats feared could limit the political influence of the union.
With about 84 to 99 percent of the vote reported, Biden appears to have held the same share of the votes as Clinton in Clark County, which encompasses Las Vegas. He is also up about 4 points over Clinton’s performance in Washoe County, which is about a quarter Hispanic.
Florida
Biden carried Hispanics in Florida — but not by significant enough margins to win the state. He underperformed in South and Central Florida, including in Miami-Dade County and Osceola County, home to the city of Orlando.
Biden won Miami-Dade County by only 7 points, as compared to Clinton’s 30-point margin in 2016. It’s clear that Trump made headway among the county’s diverse Hispanic population, which accounted for 58 percent of registered voters.
Cuban Americans are the largest contingent among those voters and have historically leaned more Republican than Hispanics from other countries of origin, embittered by John F. Kennedy’s withdrawal of support for an operation against dictator Fidel Castro at Cuba’s Bay of Pigs decades ago. But the county also has significant Colombian, Haitian, Nicaraguan, and Venezuelan communities.
Biden also won by 14 points in Osceola County, where Hispanics account for 48 percent of registered voters and Clinton won by 25 points in 2016. Trump had sought to appeal to Hispanic evangelicals in the county, who are primarily Puerto Rican.
Those gains for Trump — and Biden’s failure to make up for those losses in other parts of the state — were significant enough to tip Florida in the president’s favor in a tight contest.
The Trump campaign had spent months investing heavily in eroding Biden’s margins in Florida, casting him as a socialist and capitalizing on the fears of Hispanics from failed socialist regimes. (Biden has run as a center-left moderate, and even Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders’s brand of democratic socialism has little relationship to the regimes in Cuba and Venezuela.)
What’s more, disinformation campaigns permeated Florida Hispanics’ WhatsApp chats, Facebook feeds, and radio programs, falsely claiming, for example, that Biden has a pedophilia problem.
Wisconsin
Though Hispanics don’t make up a large proportion of the electorate in Wisconsin (roughly 7 percent), they proved essential in delivering Biden a narrow victory in the state, which has significant Mexican American, Puerto Rican, and Cuban American communities.
Hispanics appeared to sway the vote in Biden’s favor in Milwaukee and Dane counties, where he racked up massive margins of 40 and 53 points, respectively. While total turnout is still unclear, some 46,000 Hispanics cast early votes in the state, up from about 17,000 in 2016, and 57 percent of those votes were cast by women.
Local Democratic activists had sought to appeal to Hispanic voters in the state, condemning the Trump administration’s immigration policies and handling of Hurricane Maria in Puerto Rico.


vox--2020-11-04--Chris Hayes and Ezra Klein process this wild election

This is not the post-election breakdown I expected to have , but it ’ s definitely the one that I needed .
Chris Hayes is the host of the MSNBC primetime show , All In , and the podcast Why Is This Happening ?
With Chris Hayes .
He ’ s also one of the most insightful political analysts I know .
We discuss the purpose of polling , the problems of polling-driven coverage , the epistemic fog of the results , the strategy behind Trump ’ s inroads with Latino voters , how Democrats might have won the presidency @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Trump refuses to accept the election results , and much more .
More than anything else , this conversation on The Ezra Klein Show has helped me make sense of everything that ’ s happened in the last few days .
I think it will do the same for you .
Subscribe to The Ezra Klein Show wherever you listen to podcasts , including Apple Podcasts , Google Podcasts , Spotify , and Stitcher .
If you want to follow the latest election updates after listening , we ’ ve got you covered @ @ @ @ @ @ @ we ’ ll know whether Trump or Biden won the election , but you can track live results here , powered by our friends at Decision Desk .
And this election is not just about the presidency : Whoever wins , their plans depend on the makeup of Congress .
You can follow Senate live results here and House live results here .
Finally , here ’ s how Vox ( and other media outlets ) are making calls .

This is not the post-election breakdown I expected to have, but it’s definitely the one that I needed.
Chris Hayes is the host of the MSNBC primetime show, All In, and the podcast Why Is This Happening? With Chris Hayes. He’s also one of the most insightful political analysts I know. We discuss the purpose of polling, the problems of polling-driven coverage, the epistemic fog of the results, the strategy behind Trump’s inroads with Latino voters, how Democrats might have won the presidency but lost democracy, what happens if Trump refuses to accept the election results, and much more.
More than anything else, this conversation on The Ezra Klein Show has helped me make sense of everything that’s happened in the last few days. I think it will do the same for you.
Subscribe to The Ezra Klein Show wherever you listen to podcasts, including Apple Podcasts, Google Podcasts, Spotify, and Stitcher.
If you want to follow the latest election updates after listening, we’ve got you covered.
There’s no guarantee when we’ll know whether Trump or Biden won the election, but you can track live results here, powered by our friends at Decision Desk.
And this election is not just about the presidency: Whoever wins, their plans depend on the makeup of Congress. You can follow Senate live results here and House live results here.
Finally, here’s how Vox (and other media outlets) are making calls.


vox--2020-11-04--Live results: Nevada renewable energy ballot initiative

Update November 4 , 2020 , 8:55 pm : Nevada voters approved this renewable energy ballot initiative , according to the New York Times and the Associated Press .
Question 6 on Nevada ’ s ballot this year would mandate that the state ’ s electricity suppliers reach 50 percent renewable energy by 2030 .
As of Wednesday , November 4 , at 10:50 am ET , more than 56 percent of ballots were cast in support of the measure , with more than 80 percent of the vote reported , according to Vox ’ s partners at Decision Desk @ @ @ @ @ @ @ changing where their electricity comes from than putting an exclamation point on a decision they ’ ve already made — in 2018 , Nevadans passed the exact same initiative .
It just so happens that , to amend the state constitution , voters must pass an initiative twice .
So it ’ s back on the ballot this year , and expected to pass again by similarly enthusiastic margins .
There ’ s been a significant push for Nevada to quickly move toward renewable energy in recent years — and one that has @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the state legislature passed a bill that would have mandated 40 percent renewable energy 2030 , but then-Gov .
Brian Sandoval ( R ) vetoed it .
In 2019 , the bill was bumped up to 50 percent , passed again , and newly elected Gov .
Steve Sisolak ( D ) signed it .
So a successful Question 6 will makes a bill and a constitutional amendment , both mandating 50 percent renewables .
Nevada is serious about this !
Given that the target is already law , the only substantial opposition @ @ @ @ @ @ @ about inscribing a specific target into the state constitution — not only from those who think the target is too high , but from those who think it ’ s too low ( like the Center for Biological Diversity , which opposes the measure ) .
Nonetheless , most backers will be happy to have a target that can ’ t be overturned by subsequent administrations , so Question 6 is likely to be approved .
A yes vote means the state ’ s electricity suppliers will be constitutionally mandated to reach 50 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ no vote would mean the mandate will not be added to the constitution .
A law with the same target will remain on the books , but could be overturned by a court challenge , or amended by future lawmakers .

Update November 4, 2020, 8:55 pm: Nevada voters approved this renewable energy ballot initiative, according to the New York Times and the Associated Press.
Question 6 on Nevada’s ballot this year would mandate that the state’s electricity suppliers reach 50 percent renewable energy by 2030. As of Wednesday, November 4, at 10:50 am ET, more than 56 percent of ballots were cast in support of the measure, with more than 80 percent of the vote reported, according to Vox’s partners at Decision Desk.
The initiative is less about voters changing where their electricity comes from than putting an exclamation point on a decision they’ve already made — in 2018, Nevadans passed the exact same initiative. It just so happens that, to amend the state constitution, voters must pass an initiative twice. So it’s back on the ballot this year, and expected to pass again by similarly enthusiastic margins.
There’s been a significant push for Nevada to quickly move toward renewable energy in recent years — and one that has seen some setbacks. In 2017, the state legislature passed a bill that would have mandated 40 percent renewable energy 2030, but then-Gov. Brian Sandoval (R) vetoed it. In 2019, the bill was bumped up to 50 percent, passed again, and newly elected Gov. Steve Sisolak (D) signed it.
So a successful Question 6 will makes a bill and a constitutional amendment, both mandating 50 percent renewables. Nevada is serious about this!
Given that the target is already law, the only substantial opposition to the initiative comes from those leery about inscribing a specific target into the state constitution — not only from those who think the target is too high, but from those who think it’s too low (like the Center for Biological Diversity, which opposes the measure).
Nonetheless, most backers will be happy to have a target that can’t be overturned by subsequent administrations, so Question 6 is likely to be approved.
Nevada Question 6
A yes vote means the state’s electricity suppliers will be constitutionally mandated to reach 50 percent renewable energy by 2030.
A no vote would mean the mandate will not be added to the constitution. A law with the same target will remain on the books, but could be overturned by a court challenge, or amended by future lawmakers.


vox--2020-11-04--Live results: Puerto Rico votes in favor of statehood

Update November 4 , 8:50 pm : Puerto Ricans have voted in favor of US statehood , according to the AP , New York Times , and the island election commission , as of Wednesday afternoon .
Puerto Rico has been a US territory for 122 years .
It ’ s the world ’ s oldest colony .
And on Election Day , it held its sixth nonbinding referendum on the issue of statehood .
In 2012 and 2017 , the island ’ s 3 million citizens overwhelmingly backed statehood , but Congress never took further action to admit Puerto @ @ @ @ @ @ @ votes , however , were plagued by low turnout — in fact , less than a quarter of eligible voters cast ballots in the 2017 referendum , which was boycotted by opposition parties that support either maintaining the status quo or independence .
That raised questions about the legitimacy of the vote , and has allowed congressional lawmakers to punt on the issue .
This year , Puerto Ricans are hoping to send a clear message to Congress regarding their desire to attain the rights and privileges associated with statehood .
Congress isn @ @ @ @ @ @ @ by the outcome of the referendum , but proponents hope that , particularly if Democrats are able to take control of both Congress and the White House , strong turnout and a decisive outcome will pressure federal lawmakers to finally take up the issue .
A yes vote means Puerto Rico would like to become a state .
A no vote means Puerto Rico would like to remain a territory .

Update November 4, 8:50 pm: Puerto Ricans have voted in favor of US statehood, according to the AP, New York Times, and the island election commission, as of Wednesday afternoon.
Puerto Rico has been a US territory for 122 years. It’s the world’s oldest colony. And on Election Day, it held its sixth nonbinding referendum on the issue of statehood.
In 2012 and 2017, the island’s 3 million citizens overwhelmingly backed statehood, but Congress never took further action to admit Puerto Rico into the union. Both those votes, however, were plagued by low turnout — in fact, less than a quarter of eligible voters cast ballots in the 2017 referendum, which was boycotted by opposition parties that support either maintaining the status quo or independence.
That raised questions about the legitimacy of the vote, and has allowed congressional lawmakers to punt on the issue.
This year, Puerto Ricans are hoping to send a clear message to Congress regarding their desire to attain the rights and privileges associated with statehood.
Congress isn’t under legal obligation to abide by the outcome of the referendum, but proponents hope that, particularly if Democrats are able to take control of both Congress and the White House, strong turnout and a decisive outcome will pressure federal lawmakers to finally take up the issue.
2020 Puerto Rico statehood referendum
A yes vote means Puerto Rico would like to become a state.
A no vote means Puerto Rico would like to remain a territory.


vox--2020-11-04--Democrats’ increasingly narrow path for winning back the Senate, explained

Democrats entered Election Day with high hopes of retaking the Senate and winning full control of Washington if former Vice President Joe Biden beats President Donald Trump in the race for the presidency .
But by Wednesday , the election results made clear those hopes were dimming .
If Biden prevails , it is looking likely that he will have to deal with a Republican Senate .
That said , we won ’ t have a full picture until the final votes are counted — which will take some more time .
Democrats needed a net gain of three seats @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the race for the Senate came down to 10 or so competitive races .
If Republicans hold on to their lead in the North Carolina race , the GOP will likely control at least 50 seats — and could pick up two more Republican-leaning seats in Georgia , with runoff elections in the mix .
That would give them a 52-48 majority — down just one seat from the status quo .
Here ’ s how Republicans got the advantage .
Democrats did not pick up any Senate seats in more solidly Republican @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the Senate were so high — about 3 in 4 , according to the final FiveThirtyEight forecast — was they seemed to have opportunities to flip seats in Trump states .
South Carolina and Montana were rated toss-ups , and Texas was only Lean Republican .
If Democrats broke through in one or more of those races , it would have likely portended a good night for them .
Instead , Republicans appear to have won them handily : • Sen. John Cornyn topped MJ Hegar in Texas , also by 10 points @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a well-funded challenge from Jaime Harrison in South Carolina , again with a double-digit lead .
It ’ s also worth noting that while Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell was never considered to be vulnerable to Democratic challenger Amy McGrath , McGrath did raise a lot of money — only to lose to McConnell by more than 20 points .
Republicans also held on in Kansas , and they lead in Alaska , two other states where Democrats were thought to have an outside shot before the votes were counted .
Democrats also @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in South Carolina or Texas would have been a bonus for Democrats .
Their clearest path to a majority was winning most ( or all ) of the contested seats in Arizona , Colorado , Georgia , Iowa , Maine , and North Carolina .
Former Gov .
John Hickenlooper did beat Republican incumbent Cory Gardner in Colorado , and Democrat Mark Kelly is leading Sen. Martha McSally in Arizona .
Those are solid pickups for Democrats , but with Sen. Doug Jones ’ s Alabama seat lost , they need at least @ @ @ @ @ @ @ moment — they don ’ t appear to be getting them .
Maine Sen. Susan Collins announced her opponent , Sarah Gideon , had conceded on Wednesday , once again holding on to her seat in a Democratic-leaning state .
Sen. Joni Ernst defeated Democrat Theresa Greenfield in Iowa , with a comfortable 6 percentage-point margin after polling showed the race effectively tied .
Republicans are also leading in North Carolina ( Sen. Thom Tillis is ahead of Cal Cunningham ) , though there are more votes to be counted .
If Democrats @ @ @ @ @ @ @ short of a Senate majority , some of the blame is likely to be attributed to Cunningham , who enjoyed a solid lead in early polling before a sex scandal rocked his campaign and Tillis closed the gap somewhat in the final weeks .
Control of the Senate could come down to Georgia Georgia had two Senate seats up for grabs in 2020 : Republican Sen. David Perdue was up for reelection , and there was a special election for the seat vacated by retired Sen. Johnny Isakson and filled by appointment by @ @ @ @ @ @ @ an unusual “ jungle primary ” system , which could mean one or both of those races will go to a runoff election this January .
In brief , with the jungle primary , every candidate — regardless of party affiliation — was on the same ballot for the November general election .
If one candidate gets 50 percent of the vote , they win .
But if no candidate clears that threshold , then the top two vote-getters face off in the runoff .
Loeffler is headed to a runoff against Democratic @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , Rep. Doug Collins , was in the race , likely splitting the GOP vote , keeping all candidates well below 50 percent .
It will be Warnock versus Loeffler on January 5 , with Republican voters expected to unify behind Loeffler .
The question is whether Perdue also ends up in his own runoff , which would assuredly be against Democrat Jon Ossoff .
As of 8 pm ET on Wednesday , Perdue was slightly above the 50 percent threshold with most of the votes counted , and Ossoff behind at 47 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ mail-in ballots can narrow that gap .
Barring a surprise in one of the other states , Democrats would have a chance for Senate control if they win two Georgia Senate seats in runoffs and Biden wins the White House .
In that case , a Vice President Kamala Harris would break the 50-50 tie .
It ’ s a very narrow path for the minority , but it ’ s the only one left .

Democrats entered Election Day with high hopes of retaking the Senate and winning full control of Washington if former Vice President Joe Biden beats President Donald Trump in the race for the presidency.
But by Thursday afternoon, the election results presented only a narrow path left for Democrats. Both of Georgia’s Senate races appear destined to go to a runoff election in January. It seems likely Democrats would need to win both of them to achieve a 50-50 tie in the Senate; if Joe Biden wins the presidency, incoming Vice President Kamala Harris would then give control of the chamber to the Democrats.
There is an outside chance of a late break for the Democrats in Alaska’s Senate race, though it is probably a long shot. Georgia is the more likely path to a Democratic Senate.
Democrats needed a net gain of three seats to topple the Republican majority, and the race for the Senate came down to 10 or so competitive races.
If Republicans hold on to their lead in the North Carolina race, the GOP will likely control at least 50 seats. They would likely be considered the favorites to win at least one of the Georgia runoffs and therefore the Senate, no matter the presidential outcome.
The 2020 election cycle is yielding plenty of surprises, so we shouldn’t be too certain about anything. But here’s how Republicans got the advantage.
Democrats did not pick up any Senate seats in more solidly Republican states
One reason Democratic odds of winning the Senate were so high — about 3 in 4, according to the final FiveThirtyEight forecast — was they seemed to have opportunities to flip seats in Trump states. South Carolina and Montana were rated toss-ups, and Texas was only Lean Republican.
If Democrats broke through in one or more of those races, it would have likely portended a good night for them. Instead, Republicans appear to have won them handily:
Sen. Steve Daines beat Gov. Steve Bullock by 10 points in Montana.
Sen. John Cornyn topped MJ Hegar in Texas, also by 10 points.
Sen. Lindsey Graham fended off a well-funded challenge from Jaime Harrison in South Carolina, again with a double-digit lead.
It’s also worth noting that while Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell was never considered to be vulnerable to Democratic challenger Amy McGrath, McGrath did raise a lot of money — only to lose to McConnell by more than 20 points. Republicans held on in Kansas as well.
They also lead in Alaska, expected to be a competitive race that tilted toward the Republicans. But it’s mostly in-person votes, expected to skew toward the Republicans, that have been counted so far.
Some number crunchers think there is at least a chance of Democrats making up the difference in the mail ballots. But it’s going to be a few days before those are counted.
We won't know more results in Alaska until Nov. 10, so frankly it's unrealistic to not sleep on Al Gross at this point. #AKsen — Nathaniel Rakich (@baseballot) November 5, 2020
A Democratic win in Alaska would greatly improve their chances of winning the Senate. In that case, they would likely need to win just one of the two Georgia runoff elections to take the majority.
Democrats also struggled in the swing states
A win in South Carolina or Texas would have been a bonus for Democrats. Their clearest path to a majority was winning most (or all) of the contested seats in Arizona, Colorado, Georgia, Iowa, Maine, and North Carolina.
Former Gov. John Hickenlooper did beat Republican incumbent Cory Gardner in Colorado, and Democrat Mark Kelly is leading Sen. Martha McSally in Arizona. Those are solid pickups for Democrats, but with Sen. Doug Jones’s Alabama seat lost, they need at least two more, and — at the moment — they don’t appear to be getting them.
Maine Sen. Susan Collins announced her opponent, Sarah Gideon, had conceded on Wednesday, once again holding on to her seat in a Democratic-leaning state. Sen. Joni Ernst defeated Democrat Theresa Greenfield in Iowa, with a comfortable 6 percentage-point margin after polling showed the race effectively tied. Republicans are also leading in North Carolina (Sen. Thom Tillis is ahead of Cal Cunningham), though there are more votes to be counted.
If Democrats end up falling a seat or two short of a Senate majority, some of the blame is likely to be attributed to Cunningham, who enjoyed a solid lead in early polling before a sex scandal rocked his campaign and Tillis closed the gap somewhat in the final weeks.
Control of the Senate could come down to Georgia
Georgia had two Senate seats up for grabs in 2020: Republican Sen. David Perdue was up for reelection, and there was a special election for the seat vacated by retired Sen. Johnny Isakson and filled by appointment by Sen. Kelly Loeffler.
The state has an unusual primary system, which could mean one or both of those races will go to a runoff election this January. In brief, every candidate — regardless of party affiliation — was on the same ballot for the November general election. If one candidate gets 50 percent of the vote, they win. But if no candidate clears that threshold, then the top two vote-getters face off in the runoff.
Loeffler is headed to a runoff against Democratic candidate Raphael Warnock. Another prominent Republican, Rep. Doug Collins, was in the race, likely splitting the GOP vote, keeping all candidates well below 50 percent. It will be Warnock versus Loeffler on January 5, with Republican voters expected to unify behind Loeffler.
The question is whether Perdue also ends up in his own runoff, which would assuredly be against Democrat Jon Ossoff. As of 2 pm ET on Thursday, Perdue was slightly below the 50 percent threshold with most of the votes counted, and Ossoff behind at 47 percent. Democrats expect the final ballots counted will continue to push down Perdue’s vote share.
Barring a surprise in one of the other states, Democrats would have a chance for Senate control if they win two Georgia Senate seats in runoffs and Biden wins the White House. In that case, Harris would break the 50-50 tie.
It’s a very narrow path for the minority, but it’s the only one left.


vox--2020-11-05--The US Covid-19 epidemic hit a deadly new milestone, and help isn’t on the way

The United States has passed another stunning benchmark in the Covid-19 pandemic , recording more than 100,000 new cases on Wednesday .
On Thursday , the US broke the record again , with more than 116,000 cases .
And the worst is almost certainly still to come .
This doesn ’ t look like the peak ; we ’ re in the midst of a climb .
Next week , another record may be broken .
What ’ s more , the continued deterioration of the public health situation is happening all over the country .
There ’ s no @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the exception of a handful of states , the virus is spreading uncontrolled north to south , west to east .
The concern isn ’ t just about the record number of new infections — the number of people in hospitals across the country is ascending , too , hitting 53,322 on November 5 , according to the Covid Tracking Project .
That ’ s the highest number since early August .
And the trend has been accompanied by an increase in daily Covid-19 deaths , which has crept above 1,000 several days @ @ @ @ @ @ @ should be noted that the mortality rate of Covid-19 has declined since the start of the pandemic .
Doctors have learned more about how to treat the illness , more testing has helped identify hidden infections , and a better understanding of Covid-19 symptoms has allowed patients to seek help earlier in the course of the illness .
But an uncontrolled spread of the infection means that cases will still rise and hospitals could get overwhelmed , undoing the gains in saving lives and raising the death rate again .
These facts are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ has claimed throughout the pandemic that concerns about Covid-19 were overblown , that it was simply being weaponized as an election issue , and that the disease would fade away on its own .
In fact , scientists , including Trump ’ s own advisers , have raised the alarm that the worst days of the pandemic lie ahead — with record spread in the cold winter months , when people are more likely to gather indoors .
“ We are entering the most concerning and most deadly phase of this pandemic , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Birx wrote in a November 2 memo .
The need for immediate action against the virus is immense .
But nothing is likely to change in the next two and a half months .
Without a vaccine , the tactics needed to limit the spread of Covid-19 are the same as they ’ ve been throughout the pandemic : widespread testing , social distancing , good hygiene , wearing face masks consistently , and so on .
But the US is still struggling to implement these measures .
Some hospitals continue to have @ @ @ @ @ @ @ testing shortages persist .
Many states have yet to implement mandates to wear face masks in public places , and some are already easing the few pandemic control measures they had in place .
From the federal government , the public health messaging around the pandemic continues to be incoherent as President Trump and some of his advisers undermine health officials .
The drawn-out presidential election now adds another layer of concern .
After all the ballots are counted , the country faces two potential outcomes — both equally worrisome .
In Trump @ @ @ @ @ @ @ who has been widely criticized for botching the country ’ s response to date , who has stymied the work of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention , and who appears to have given up on acknowledging the problem , let alone addressing it .
In Biden , they ’ ll get a leader who can ’ t do much , even if he wanted to , in the short term : He couldn ’ t take power until after the inauguration , on January 20 .
Between now and January , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The virus won ’ t stop .
As the winter progresses , cases are expected to climb .
If Biden does finally take office , he ’ ll have the challenge of stopping a pandemic that ’ s been doubly infected with partisan attitudes about its severity , and he ’ ll have to do the hard work of coordinating the country ’ s fractured state-by-state , county-by-county responses to the outbreaks .
All the while , Covid-19 will continue sickening and killing .
And the more people the virus infects , the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Researchers and health officials have been concerned for months that a fall and winter spike in Covid-19 cases was looming .
“ There ’ s a possibility that the assault of the virus on our nation next winter will actually be even more difficult than the one we just went through , ” CDC Director Robert Redfield told the Washington Post in April .
“ And when I ’ ve said this to others , they kind of put their head back , they don ’ t understand what I mean.
” Americans @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , that there would be no going back to normal life until community transmission of the virus had been suppressed .
We were warned that any successes achieved through business closures and social distancing would have to be replaced by equally effective public health measures if we were to take steps toward returning to life as normal .
In many parts of the country , those alternative strategies never came .
Scientists also told us that we ’ d be living with the pandemic for potentially years without a vaccine .
That ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , as it became more apparent that the United States was on track for a major increase in Covid-19 cases , states like Florida were relaxing restrictions , allowing bars and restaurants to reopen for indoor patrons .
( A similar pattern emerged this summer as cities and states relaxed restrictions even as cases were rising , fueling a spike in new infections in June . )
Trump essentially campaigned on a promise to continue pushing ahead with reopening the economy , even at the cost of public health .
While a majority @ @ @ @ @ @ @ controlled before reopening , even if it hurts the economy , 76 percent of Republicans in exit polls took the opposite view : They want the economy to reopen first .
Regardless of who wins the election , with Trump still in office until the end of January , we can expect this approach to reign through a dark winter .

The United States has passed another stunning benchmark in the Covid-19 pandemic, recording 121,200 new cases on Thursday.
That followed Wednesday’s record-breaking 100,000-plus case toll. And the worst is almost certainly still to come. This doesn’t look like the peak; we’re in the midst of a climb. Next week, another record may be broken.
What’s more, the continued deterioration of the public health situation is happening all over the country. There’s no single hot spot or epicenter. With the exception of a handful of states, the virus is spreading uncontrolled north to south, west to east.
The concern isn’t just about the record number of new infections — the number of people in hospitals across the country is ascending, too, hitting 53,322 on November 5, according to the Covid Tracking Project. That’s the highest number since early August. And the trend has been accompanied by an increase in daily Covid-19 deaths, which has crept above 1,000 several days over the past two weeks.
It should be noted that the mortality rate of Covid-19 has declined since the start of the pandemic. Doctors have learned more about how to treat the illness, more testing has helped identify hidden infections, and a better understanding of Covid-19 symptoms has allowed patients to seek help earlier in the course of the illness.
But an uncontrolled spread of the infection means that cases will still rise and hospitals could get overwhelmed, undoing the gains in saving lives and raising the death rate again.
These facts are a rebuke to President Trump, who has claimed throughout the pandemic that concerns about Covid-19 were overblown, that it was simply being weaponized as an election issue, and that the disease would fade away on its own.
In fact, scientists, including Trump’s own advisers, have raised the alarm that the worst days of the pandemic lie ahead — with record spread in the cold winter months, when people are more likely to gather indoors. “We are entering the most concerning and most deadly phase of this pandemic,” White House Coronavirus Response Coordinator Deborah Birx wrote in a November 2 memo.
The need for immediate action against the virus is immense. But nothing is likely to change in the next two and a half months.
Without a vaccine, the tactics needed to limit the spread of Covid-19 are the same as they’ve been throughout the pandemic: widespread testing, social distancing, good hygiene, wearing face masks consistently, and so on.
But the US is still struggling to implement these measures. Some hospitals continue to have difficulty getting enough personal protective equipment while testing shortages persist. Many states have yet to implement mandates to wear face masks in public places, and some are already easing the few pandemic control measures they had in place. From the federal government, the public health messaging around the pandemic continues to be incoherent as President Trump and some of his advisers undermine health officials.
The presidential election has been called for Biden, but the concerns aren’t going away.
In Biden, America will get a leader who can’t do much, even if he wanted to, in the short term: He can’t take power until after the inauguration, on January 20.
Between now and January, one thing’s for sure: The virus won’t stop. As the winter progresses, cases are expected to climb. Biden will have the challenge of stopping a pandemic that’s been doubly infected with partisan attitudes about its severity, and he’ll have to do the hard work of coordinating the country’s fractured state-by-state, county-by-county responses to the outbreaks.
All the while, Covid-19 will continue sickening and killing. And the more people the virus infects, the harder the pandemic becomes to contain.
We were warned
Researchers and health officials have been concerned for months that a fall and winter spike in Covid-19 cases was looming.
“There’s a possibility that the assault of the virus on our nation next winter will actually be even more difficult than the one we just went through,” CDC Director Robert Redfield told the Washington Post in April. “And when I’ve said this to others, they kind of put their head back, they don’t understand what I mean.”
Americans were warned, as early as March, that there would be no going back to normal life until community transmission of the virus had been suppressed. We were warned that any successes achieved through business closures and social distancing would have to be replaced by equally effective public health measures if we were to take steps toward returning to life as normal. In many parts of the country, those alternative strategies never came.
Scientists also told us that we’d be living with the pandemic for potentially years without a vaccine. That’s still true.
Yet this fall, as it became more apparent that the United States was on track for a major increase in Covid-19 cases, states like Florida were relaxing restrictions, allowing bars and restaurants to reopen for indoor patrons. (A similar pattern emerged this summer as cities and states relaxed restrictions even as cases were rising, fueling a spike in new infections in June.)
Trump essentially campaigned on a promise to continue pushing ahead with reopening the economy, even at the cost of public health. While a majority of Americans want to see the pandemic controlled before reopening, even if it hurts the economy, 76 percent of Republicans in exit polls took the opposite view: They want the economy to reopen first. With Trump still in office until the end of January, we can expect this approach to reign through a dark winter.


vox--2020-11-05--Former astronaut Mark Kelly has flipped an Arizona Senate seat for Democrats

Former astronaut Mark Kelly has defeated Republican Sen. Martha McSally in Arizona , securing a critical Democratic victory , according to a projection from Decision Desk on Thursday evening .
Kelly ’ s win means that , in just two years , Democrats have now flipped both Arizona Senate seats .
In 2018 , Democrat Kyrsten Sinema won former Republican Sen. Jeff Flake ’ s old seat .
And now , Kelly has unseated McSally .
McSally was first appointed to the seat in 2018 by Republican Gov .
Doug Ducey to serve out the term of the late Sen. @ @ @ @ @ @ @ take place .
This year ’ s race served as a special election and determined who would complete what ’ s left of McCain ’ s term until 2022 .
Kelly ultimately won by running a campaign similar to Sinema ’ s : emphasizing his independence as a leader , rather than tying himself closely to the Democratic Party .
Health care was one of the primary issues he focused on , including a commitment to protecting coverage for people with preexisting conditions .
The husband of Arizona ’ s former US Rep. @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a longstanding advocate for gun control , backing universal background checks and “ red flag ” laws , which enable law enforcement agencies to bar individuals from accessing firearms if they are flagged as a danger to themselves or others .
Kelly ’ s victory is central to Democrats ’ efforts to retake the Senate majority this year , and was one of a handful of seats the party has been working to flip .
Arizona ’ s leftward shift in recent elections is the result of an increasingly diverse electorate that ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and Republican candidates like McSally who have aligned themselves with him .
Trump ’ s hardline stances on immigration and racist comments about Mexican immigrants — as well as his poor handling of the coronavirus pandemic — are among the factors that have put these voters off .
Kelly ’ s campaign targeted independent voters in the state , as well as moderate Republicans who were open to crossing over .
“ The shift is these Ducey-Sinema voters .
You ’ re a Republican and you ’ re willing to vote for a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ think the most growth has been , ” Lorna Romero , a former communications director for McCain ’ s 2016 campaign , told Vox in late September .
An uptick in Latinx voters in the state likely also had a significant impact on the outcome .
Latinx voter share in the Arizona electorate was projected to grow from 19.6 percent to 24.6 percent this year , with thousands of younger voters reaching voting age .
In previous elections , Latinx voters in Arizona have voted overwhelmingly for Democratic candidates , with 70 percent @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Latinx vote definitely has the power to swing this election , ” Lexy Reyelts , an organizer for NextGen America , a progressive group aimed at mobilizing younger voters , told Vox in October .
Sinema has established herself as a moderate lawmaker in the Senate who ’ s been willing to buck the party on votes including confirmations of Trump cabinet officials .
If Kelly takes the same approach once he ’ s sworn in , he will be part of an important contingent of centrist Democratic senators who will be important @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ I ’ m running — to be an independent voice for Arizona , ” Kelly has said .

Former astronaut Mark Kelly has defeated Republican Sen. Martha McSally in Arizona, securing a critical Democratic victory, according to a projection from Decision Desk on Thursday evening.
Kelly’s win means that, in just two years, Democrats have now flipped both Arizona Senate seats. In 2018, Democrat Kyrsten Sinema won former Republican Sen. Jeff Flake’s old seat. And now, Kelly has unseated McSally.
McSally was first appointed to the seat in 2018 by Republican Gov. Doug Ducey to serve out the term of the late Sen. John McCain until a special election could take place. This year’s race served as a special election and determined who would complete what’s left of McCain’s term until 2022.
Kelly ultimately won by running a campaign similar to Sinema’s: emphasizing his independence as a leader, rather than tying himself closely to the Democratic Party. Health care was one of the primary issues he focused on, including a commitment to protecting coverage for people with preexisting conditions.
The husband of Arizona’s former US Rep. Gabby Giffords, Kelly has also been a longstanding advocate for gun control, backing universal background checks and “red flag” laws, which enable law enforcement agencies to bar individuals from accessing firearms if they are flagged as a danger to themselves or others.
Kelly’s victory is central to Democrats’ efforts to retake the Senate majority this year, and was one of a handful of seats the party has been working to flip.
Arizona’s leftward shift in recent elections is the result of an increasingly diverse electorate that’s turned away from President Donald Trump and Republican candidates like McSally who have aligned themselves with him. Trump’s hardline stances on immigration and racist comments about Mexican immigrants — as well as his poor handling of the coronavirus pandemic — are among the factors that have put these voters off.
Kelly’s campaign targeted independent voters in the state, as well as moderate Republicans who were open to crossing over.
“The shift is these Ducey-Sinema voters. You’re a Republican and you’re willing to vote for a Democrat. That’s where I think the most growth has been,” Lorna Romero, a former communications director for McCain’s 2016 campaign, told Vox in late September.
An uptick in Latinx voters in the state likely also had a significant impact on the outcome. Latinx voter share in the Arizona electorate was projected to grow from 19.6 percent to 24.6 percent this year, with thousands of younger voters reaching voting age. In previous elections, Latinx voters in Arizona have voted overwhelmingly for Democratic candidates, with 70 percent backing Sinema in 2018.
“The Latinx vote definitely has the power to swing this election,” Lexy Reyelts, an organizer for NextGen America, a progressive group aimed at mobilizing younger voters, told Vox in October.
Sinema has established herself as a moderate lawmaker in the Senate who’s been willing to buck the party on votes including confirmations of Trump cabinet officials. If Kelly takes the same approach once he’s sworn in, he will be part of an important contingent of centrist Democratic senators who will be important votes for advancing legislation and nominees.
“I’m running — to be an independent voice for Arizona,” Kelly has said.