vox--2020-10-03--Was the White House reception for Amy Coney Barrett a superspreading event?

Evidence-based explanations of the coronavirus crisis , from how it started to how it might end to how to protect yourself and others .
As the cluster of coronavirus cases linked to the White House and Washington Republicans grows — there have been 12 reported so far , by Vox ’ s count — and it becomes increasingly apparent that most of the people with confirmed infections attended a recent White House reception for Supreme Court nominee Amy Coney Barrett , it ’ s reasonable to ask : Was this a superspreading event , meaning one where a lot of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , by a common source ?
It is difficult to say for sure , but that reception is a vivid example of what not to do during the Covid-19 pandemic : This picture , taken last Saturday at the White House , shows President Donald Trump hosting a reception for Barrett after he formally nominated her to the Supreme Court .
There are so many pandemic-prevention red flags that jump out in this image : many people crowded together , indoors , with no open window in sight , talking and breathing without @ @ @ @ @ @ @ t know that it ’ s a superspreader event for sure , but it certainly has all the makings of one , ” Joseph Allen , a public health researcher at Harvard , says .
“ When you have large numbers of people spending time in close contact , unmasked , and indoors , it ’ s a recipe for superspreading.
” Superspreading doesn ’ t have a specific scientific definition .
But , roughly , it ’ s defined as when one case of a disease causes a disproportionate number of others @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of the viral transmission of SARS-CoV-2 , the virus that causes Covid-19 , is due to superspreading .
Most people with the virus actually do not pass it on to others .
“ Ten to 20 percent of infected people may be responsible for as much as 80 to 90 percent of transmission , ” Zeynep Tufekci writes in the Atlantic in an overview of the latest research .
Superspreaders are made at the intersection of timing ( a person is most contagious when their viral load peaks , usually right as they @ @ @ @ @ @ @ perhaps a bit before ) , an individual ’ s biology ( some people may be predisposed to spread more than others ) , the activity ( the longer the time spent with a superspreader , the greater the chances of being exposed to the virus ) , and the environment ( indoor environments are much more conducive to allowing viral-laden aerosols to linger in a space longer , infecting more people ) .
All of these elements could have been in play at the White House event Saturday , which took place @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Beyond these factors , the event had another ingredient that might have been key in aiding the spread of the virus : a cavalier attitude .
“ Attendees were so confident that the contagion would not invade their seemingly safe space at the White House that , according to [ attendee Rev .
John I. Jenkins , the president of the University of Notre Dame ] , after guests tested negative that day they were instructed they no longer needed to cover their faces , ” the Washington Post reports of the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ indoors as well .
Cabinet members , senators , Barrett family members and others mixed unencumbered at tightly packed , indoor receptions in the White House ’ s Diplomatic Room and Cabinet Room.
” Epidemiologists see some telltale superspreading clues at the White House event Allen points to Jenkins , the president of Notre Dame , as being a key clue in favor of this being a superspreading event .
Jenkins tested positive for the virus the week after the gathering .
But there is a key difference in his positive case compared @ @ @ @ @ @ @ flew in to the event from out of town .
Many of the other guests at the White House “ all operate in the same social and political circles , ” Allen says , which makes it difficult to say whether they all got infected at this one event .
“ It ’ s very possible they could have gotten it sometime other than Saturday .
But the fact that the president of Notre Dame was there and flew in and out adds some evidence , or certainly raises our suspicion , that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ spread of the virus.
” Ideally , the White House will be testing and keeping in contact with every attendee of the reception .
“ If more and more cases are linked [ to the event ] , then that adds a lot of evidence , ” Allen says .
“ The fact that everybody ’ s testing positive at the same time , developing symptoms around a similar time , suggests that , at the very least , there ’ s a shared source or a couple sources on too many of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a Johns Hopkins University epidemiologist , says .
For instance : If a contact tracing investigation found out that the people who went inside during the event were more likely to get sick after , that would lend credence to the hypothesis that the Barrett gathering was a superspreader event .
We know that indoor environments are riskier than outdoor environments .
If more people who attended the indoor portion of the event got sick than did for the outdoor portion , it makes the case for superspreading .
Possibly , too , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ viral samples obtained from attendees .
If the viruses have a very similar genetic signature , then that ’ s also evidence that the event was the source of the outbreak .
But even with contact tracing , it might be difficult to pinpoint the exact source of the outbreak .
“ I doubt we ’ ll ever find a smoking gun , ” Lessler says .
It ’ s just really hard to know who came into the event already carrying the virus .
There were dozens of people in attendance , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ virus before attending .
One or more of those guests could have been a false negative , which are common , particularly in the days before a person starts feeling symptoms of the illness .
This goes to show that frequent testing can help stop a burgeoning outbreak in its tracks , but it can ’ t stop some infections from occurring in the first place .
Masking and social distancing are still crucial in stopping the spread of the virus .
Generally , people exposed to the virus start to feel symptoms @ @ @ @ @ @ @ take 10 days or more for the virus to incubate .
So if more people were exposed to the virus at this White House event , we ’ d expect the last of them to start showing symptoms by now , or soon .
What ’ s important now is to figure out if there were any secondary chains of infections caused by attendees .
“ We ’ re definitely in the incubation period for any secondary contact , ” Allen says .
If people who contracted Covid-19 at the reception went elsewhere @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the same lax attitude toward masking and distancing , then there may be more infections to come from this cluster , too .
And remember : We may hear about high-profile people like former White House adviser Kellyanne Conway falling ill with the virus , but maybe not about their staff or people they interact with day-to-day .
Even if we never know the role this White House reception played in the outbreak , we can take it as a clear example of what not to do .
Events like these are “ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to happen , whether or not one did , ” Lessler says .
“ These gatherings of a lot of people , they can really amplify the epidemic.
” Help keep Vox free for all Millions turn to Vox each month to understand what ’ s happening in the news , from the coronavirus crisis to a racial reckoning to what is , quite possibly , the most consequential presidential election of our lifetimes .
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As the cluster of coronavirus cases linked to the White House and Washington Republicans grows — there have been 12 reported so far, by Vox’s count — and it becomes increasingly apparent that most of the people with confirmed infections attended a recent White House reception for Supreme Court nominee Amy Coney Barrett, it’s reasonable to ask: Was this a superspreading event, meaning one where a lot of people get infected at the same time, by a common source?
It is difficult to say for sure, but that reception is a vivid example of what not to do during the Covid-19 pandemic:
From tomorrow’s NYT A1, a reminder that the Amy Coney Barrett WH event was not entirely outdoors pic.twitter.com/wSJvKOY4JD — Rebecca Buck (@RebeccaBuck) October 3, 2020
This picture, taken last Saturday at the White House, shows President Donald Trump hosting a reception for Barrett after he formally nominated her to the Supreme Court. There are so many pandemic-prevention red flags that jump out in this image: many people crowded together, indoors, with no open window in sight, talking and breathing without masks on.
“We don’t know that it’s a superspreader event for sure, but it certainly has all the makings of one,” Joseph Allen, a public health researcher at Harvard, says. “When you have large numbers of people spending time in close contact, unmasked, and indoors, it’s a recipe for superspreading.”
Superspreading, explained
Superspreading doesn’t have a specific scientific definition. But, roughly, it’s defined as when one case of a disease causes a disproportionate number of others. It’s thought that much of the viral transmission of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes Covid-19, is due to superspreading. Most people with the virus actually do not pass it on to others. “Ten to 20 percent of infected people may be responsible for as much as 80 to 90 percent of transmission,” Zeynep Tufekci writes in the Atlantic in an overview of the latest research.
Superspreaders are made at the intersection of timing (a person is most contagious when their viral load peaks, usually right as they are starting to feel symptoms, or perhaps a bit before), an individual’s biology (some people may be predisposed to spread more than others), the activity (the longer the time spent with a superspreader, the greater the chances of being exposed to the virus), and the environment (indoor environments are much more conducive to allowing viral-laden aerosols to linger in a space longer, infecting more people).
All of these elements could have been in play at the White House event Saturday, which took place both outdoors and indoors, per reports. Beyond these factors, the event had another ingredient that might have been key in aiding the spread of the virus: a cavalier attitude.
“Attendees were so confident that the contagion would not invade their seemingly safe space at the White House that, according to [attendee Rev. John I. Jenkins, the president of the University of Notre Dame], after guests tested negative that day they were instructed they no longer needed to cover their faces,” the Washington Post reports of the event. “The no-mask mantra applied indoors as well. Cabinet members, senators, Barrett family members and others mixed unencumbered at tightly packed, indoor receptions in the White House’s Diplomatic Room and Cabinet Room.”
Epidemiologists see some telltale superspreading clues at the White House event
Allen points to Jenkins, the president of Notre Dame, as being a key clue in favor of this being a superspreading event. Jenkins tested positive for the virus the week after the gathering. But there is a key difference in his positive case compared to those of the lawmakers: He flew in to the event from out of town.
Many of the other guests at the White House “all operate in the same social and political circles,” Allen says, which makes it difficult to say whether they all got infected at this one event. “It’s very possible they could have gotten it sometime other than Saturday. But the fact that the president of Notre Dame was there and flew in and out adds some evidence, or certainly raises our suspicion, that this was an important event for the spread of the virus.”
Ideally, the White House will be testing and keeping in contact with every attendee of the reception. “If more and more cases are linked [to the event], then that adds a lot of evidence,” Allen says.
“The fact that everybody’s testing positive at the same time, developing symptoms around a similar time, suggests that, at the very least, there’s a shared source or a couple sources on too many of these infections,” Justin Lessler, a Johns Hopkins University epidemiologist, says.
But it’s doubtful we’ll find a specific smoking gun
More evidence could paint a clearer picture.
For instance: If a contact tracing investigation found out that the people who went inside during the event were more likely to get sick after, that would lend credence to the hypothesis that the Barrett gathering was a superspreader event.
We know that indoor environments are riskier than outdoor environments. If more people who attended the indoor portion of the event got sick than did for the outdoor portion, it makes the case for superspreading. Possibly, too, contact tracers could do genetic sequencing of viral samples obtained from attendees. If the viruses have a very similar genetic signature, then that’s also evidence that the event was the source of the outbreak.
But even with contact tracing, it might be difficult to pinpoint the exact source of the outbreak. “I doubt we’ll ever find a smoking gun,” Lessler says. It’s just really hard to know who came into the event already carrying the virus. There were dozens of people in attendance, and they all tested negative for the virus before attending. One or more of those guests could have been a false negative, which are common, particularly in the days before a person starts feeling symptoms of the illness.
This goes to show that frequent testing can help stop a burgeoning outbreak in its tracks, but it can’t stop some infections from occurring in the first place. Masking and social distancing are still crucial in stopping the spread of the virus.
Generally, people exposed to the virus start to feel symptoms after five days, but it could take 10 days or more for the virus to incubate. So if more people were exposed to the virus at this White House event, we’d expect the last of them to start showing symptoms by now, or soon. What’s important now is to figure out if there were any secondary chains of infections caused by attendees.
“We’re definitely in the incubation period for any secondary contact,” Allen says. If people who contracted Covid-19 at the reception went elsewhere, met other people, and had the same lax attitude toward masking and distancing, then there may be more infections to come from this cluster, too. And remember: We may hear about high-profile people like former White House adviser Kellyanne Conway falling ill with the virus, but maybe not about their staff or people they interact with day-to-day.
Even if we never know the role this White House reception played in the outbreak, we can take it as a clear example of what not to do. Events like these are “fertile ground for a superspreading type event to happen, whether or not one did,” Lessler says. “These gatherings of a lot of people, they can really amplify the epidemic.”


vox--2020-10-03--North Carolina’s all-important 2020 Senate race, explained

The road to a Democratic Senate majority runs through North Carolina .
Democrats hope former state lawmaker and military prosecutor Cal Cunningham can topple Republican Sen. Thom Tillis , who is up for his first reelection since his win in 2014 .
“ North Carolinians know Thom Tillis , and they have very strong negative views about him , about his service , about the things he has chosen to pursue in office on issue after issue of importance to North Carolinians , ” Cunningham told me in a recent interview .
“ He has either capitulated to the partisan @ @ @ @ @ @ @ special interests.
” Everybody I spoke to expects an extraordinarily tight Senate race .
The outcome could very well decide which party controls the Senate in 2021 , going by the Sabato ’ s Crystal Ball ratings .
Assuming Democrats lose in the Alabama Senate race but win in Arizona , Colorado , and Maine — which forecasters say is a fairly likely scenario — then they just need a win in either North Carolina or Iowa .
With one of those toss-up states , by Sabato ’ s reckoning , Democrats can @ @ @ @ @ @ @ three presidential elections have been decided in North Carolina by less than 4 percentage points ; Barack Obama and Jimmy Carter are the only Democratic presidential candidates to win in the modern era .
And despite Donald Trump ’ s triumph there in 2016 , Democrat Roy Cooper won that same year , becoming one of two Democratic governors in the South .
And 2020 looks as though it ’ ll be no different .
Joe Biden leads Trump by less than a point in the RealClearPolitics polling average ; Cunningham is polling @ @ @ @ @ @ @ That polling gap between Trump and Tillis is one reason for Democratic optimism ; if an incumbent senator runs behind his party ’ s president , he seems to have some problems with the conservative base as well as persuadable voters .
But Tillis ’ s campaign is spending the final weeks of the race trying to erode Cunningham ’ s advantage by portraying him as a partisan Democrat .
The race was recently jolted by revelations that Cunningham sent romantic texts to a woman who is not his wife — which Cunningham @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the same day , Tillis revealed he had tested positive for Covid-19 and would isolate at home .
North Carolina was already going to be one of the most fiercely contested Senate races of the year .
Now , with Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg ’ s death and Republicans pledging to replace her in the middle of the campaign , the stakes of a Senate majority have never been clearer .
Why North Carolina is one of the swingiest of the swing states North Carolina has , like most Southern states , undergone @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 50 years .
Conservative Democrats have mostly left that party behind and many have joined the Republicans .
At the same time , young people make up a growing percentage of the electorate , and while they officially register as unaffiliated , they tend to be more progressive in their politics .
By voter registration numbers , the state is neatly divided in thirds among Republicans , Democrats , and unaffiliated voters .
But most of those unaffiliated voters are actually reliable votes for one party or the other .
Instead , according @ @ @ @ @ @ @ spoke with , North Carolina looks more like this : 45 percent Republican voters , 45 percent Democratic voters , and 10 percent truly persuadable swing voters .
So any winning coalition in the state starts with turning out as many voters in your 45 percent as you can — and then winning that small percentage of persuadable voters and ticket splitters .
Where are those gettable voters ?
The suburbs .
Urban voters overwhelmingly back Democratic candidates ( Hillary Clinton won 66 percent of the central city vote in 2016 , according @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , who writes at Old North State Politics ) .
Rural voters are reliable votes for the Republicans , with Trump commanding a 21-point edge there over Clinton .
That leaves the suburbs as the most important battleground .
But Bitzer distinguishes between two different kinds of suburbs , which are pivotal in distinct ways .
Urban county suburbs are closer to their city centers , contained within the same county borders .
These areas were decided by a thin margin in 2016 : Clinton won them by 1 point , GOP Sen. @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on his way to reelection , and Cooper by 4 .
These are moderate , sometimes ticket-splitting voters , and they helped Burr and Cooper win those races for their respective parties .
The surrounding county suburbs are a little farther out from the city and tend to be more solidly Republican .
Trump won 65 percent of the vote in those places , and Burr won 63 percent .
But even a slight underperformance there by Republicans can make a difference : Former North Carolina Gov .
Pat McCrory won 61 percent @ @ @ @ @ @ @ lower than Trump and Burr , when he lost to Cooper .
Paired with Cooper ’ s edge in the urban suburbs , that was just enough to give the Democrat the statewide win .
To beat Tillis , Cunningham needs similarly strong performances in those areas .
The suburbs have been shifting toward Democrats in the Trump era , powering their big wins in the 2018 midterms , and they are an absolute must-have for the party in this state .
“ If North Carolina ’ s suburbs are acting like the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ probably going to shift and the Republican margin in the surrounding suburbs is going to shrink , ” Bitzer told me .
Democratic odds would be aided by strong turnout among younger voters and Black voters .
Registration by voters in the millennial and Gen Z cohorts has been strong throughout 2020 .
But Democratic-leaning voters have not always turned out as reliably as Republican voters : A higher percentage of Democratic and unaffiliated voters registered in 2016 but failed to vote compared to Republicans , according to Bitzer ’ s research .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ North Carolina is a state with a robust vote-by-mail and early voting apparatus , so the state ’ s voters are already comfortable with those procedures .
As of late August , 710,000 mail ballots had been requested .
At the same point in the 2016 cycle , only 40,000 voters had asked for a mail-in ballot .
More than half of the ballot requests so far in 2020 are from Democrats , whereas in 2016 the parties were evenly split .
But Bitzer cautioned against reading too much into that data .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ of the hardened opinions of partisan voters who have already made up their minds .
These could simply be early votes that would have been made regardless , and they ’ re just coming in even earlier because of Covid-19 .
“ I ’ m still of an opinion that Covid is the great unknown at this point , ” Bitzer said .
“ It could be the true partisans who are banking their ballots now.
” That would leave the persuadable voters to be fought over in the last few weeks of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ have a strategy for winning them .
Cunningham has the profile of many Democrats who won competitive races in the 2018 midterms : He ’ s a veteran and former military prosecutor who served two active-duty tours in Iraq .
He served one term in the North Carolina state Senate in the early 2000s , worked for various law firms and a waste reduction company over the years , and ran for the US Senate in 2010 but lost the Democratic primary in a runoff .
Cunningham is also , as he will @ @ @ @ @ @ @ lifelong North Carolinian .
His campaign strategy is neatly captured in how he ’ s run on Covid-19 .
In his interview with Vox , he pointed out that the United States is capable of coming together for the national good — just not , apparently , for Covid-19 .
“ If it had been a terrorist attack , there would have been an address to the nation , probably to a joint session of Congress .
There would not have been a hesitation to invoke things like the Defense Production Act , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ There would have been clear communication from the top to every corner of America about how we fight that enemy .
Here , we were told it was a hoax.
” It was a plea for unity , one that could be effective with moderate voters and not unlike the message often heard from Biden when he ’ s speaking to that part of the electorate .
Cunningham mostly leaves Trump out of it .
He said instead that he is “ incredibly laser-focused on Senator Tillis and the role a senator @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ” Cunningham contrasted Tillis with Sen. Tom Cotton , a resolute conservative and Trump ally who still warned about the need to prepare for the worst after sitting in on a classified briefing in January about the Covid-19 threat .
In Cunningham ’ s telling , Cotton was an example of a Republican urging vigilance early on , despite the Trump administration ’ s reluctance to acknowledge the severity of the coronavirus outbreak .
“ My guy , the person I hold accountable in this race , was not one of them , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ He has demonstrated an unwillingness and an inability to ask the tough questions when a US senator , in a coequal branch of government , should be doing exactly that.
” So when given the chance , he decided to forgo any more direct criticisms of Trump and instead stayed “ laser-focused ” on his Republican opponent .
That is the strategy that Democratic operatives and independent observers believe will serve him best as he zeroes in on the persuadable 10 percent of the North Carolina electorate .
“ I think he is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , focusing on issues like health care , more so than the ‘ I ’ m not in Donald Trump ’ s camp ’ card , ” Bitzer said .
“ Voters already know that .
There ’ s a clean delineation in this state with the two parties , I don ’ t think he needs to clear that up.
” Cunningham has instead hammered Tillis over health care , both before and during the Covid-19 pandemic .
North Carolina is one of 12 states that haven ’ t expanded Medicaid through @ @ @ @ @ @ @ than 200,000 people without access to affordable health insurance .
Tillis , who was speaker of the state House from 2011 to 2015 , bears significant responsibility for that fact ; in 2013 , the state legislature passed a bill explicitly forbidding a governor from unilaterally expanding Medicaid .
That meant when Cooper became governor in 2017 , having run on expanding Medicaid , he was unable to enact his top agenda item .
Even though Tillis had left for the US Senate in 2015 , his actions as a leader in the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to this day — and Cunningham wants voters to know that .
“ North Carolinians , in particular , are more vulnerable than most to the public health crisis .
We have one of the highest rates of uninsured because we didn ’ t expand Medicaid .
... We know why we did that .
Tillis proudly takes credit for that , ” Cunningham told me .
“ Today , almost 1.3 million out of 10 million people in my state can ’ t go see a doctor without having to fear what @ @ @ @ @ @ @ they just don ’ t have coverage.
” Thom Tillis is trying to paint Cunningham as a radical in moderate clothing Tillis is in a weak position for an incumbent .
He ’ s averaging 42.3 percent support in the RealClearPolitics average , well behind Trump ’ s 46.6 percent average .
A Morning Consult analysis of the race found the senator lagging badly behind Trump with rural voters , with conservative voters , and with 2016 Trump voters .
He was also performing worse than Trump with suburban and moderate voters .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ annoy both the far right and the rigidly centrist .
He voted in favor of Obamacare repeal in the Senate , something Cunningham lumps together with Tillis ’ s opposition to Medicaid expansion in order to blame the senator for the state ’ s high uninsured rate .
Tillis has been working to convince voters he supports protecting people with preexisting conditions even though the bill he voted for would have stripped those protections .
He also clashed with Trump over the president ’ s plan for declaring a national emergency along the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that plan for fear of the precedent it would set for a future Democratic administration .
But he later reversed himself at the last minute and voted to affirm Trump ’ s plan ; Cunningham therefore argues Tillis is unwilling to take principled stands against Trump .
“ This race is as much about Tillis ’ s weakness as anything else , ” Morgan Jackson , a Democratic strategist in the state , says .
“ He ’ s angering both of these voters at the same time .
When he backs the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the swing voters that he ’ s not concerned about their issues .
But then when he puts a mask on , that ’ s a direct repudiation of Trump .
“ He ’ s trying to straddle this line , but it ’ s not working.
” There is an argument to be made that Tillis has never been a particularly strong statewide candidate .
His slim 2014 win was unimpressive compared to some of the other Republican winners that year .
Over 2019 , Morning Consult found his approval rating with @ @ @ @ @ @ @ rating was 37 percent .
But nobody believes a Tillis loss is a foregone conclusion .
The state ’ s voters are too evenly divided for a landslide .
“ You have to fundamentally respect that North Carolina is a very purple state , ” Jackson said .
And Tillis ’ s campaign and his political consultants believe they have an opening to shake up the race .
Their plan relies primarily on convincing those moderate voters that Cunningham is not the reasonable Democrat he ’ s presenting himself as , and is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ radical progressive agenda .
“ Cal Cunningham wants to appear to be part of the Democrats of the past , not of the future , ” Paul Shumaker , a Republican strategist supporting Tillis ’ s campaign , told me .
“ Cal Cunningham has been given a free pass until the last four weeks.
” They have seized on his comments at the first Senate debate in early September , when Cunningham expressed doubts about the veracity of a vaccine approved under the Trump administration .
That ’ s a concern shared @ @ @ @ @ @ @ but it ’ s still one that the Tillis camp believes makes Cunningham look like a party-line Democrat .
In the same vein , they have been citing his stated rationale for opposing the most recent Senate Republican Covid-19 relief package — that it was a party-line vote .
“ He ’ s saying something to get elected , anything to get elected , ” Tillis said at the debate .
This is the message from Tillis going forward : Cunningham can ’ t be trusted , and neither can the Democratic Party @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the fall at a disadvantage , after Cunningham had spent much of the spring and summer building up his moderate bona fides with little pushback .
But they believe they can turn the race around in the final stretch when that critical 10 percent of persuadable voters will make up their minds .
They have some reason to be optimistic .
A lot of the unaffiliated voters are formerly Democrats who are too conservative for the modern party .
In 2016 , Burr was polling just 2 points ahead of his Democratic opponent @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
There could be a hidden Tillis vote , especially if some of the conservatives who are currently sour on him come around and support him when they ’ re filling out their ballot for Trump .
Tillis ’ s closing argument will likely rest on the Supreme Court fight , which affirms his importance to Republicans as a swing-state senator .
Cunningham will continue focusing on health care and his opponent , but not the president .
The two sides have been almost even in fundraising : about $ 13.7 million for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
It ’ s the recipe for a razor-thin race .
“ That small percentage [ of ticket splitters ] can decide an election , ” Bitzer said .
“ But it ’ s a smaller and smaller slice.
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The road to a Democratic Senate majority runs through North Carolina.
Democrats hope former state lawmaker and military prosecutor Cal Cunningham can topple Republican Sen. Thom Tillis, who is up for his first reelection since his win in 2014.
“North Carolinians know Thom Tillis, and they have very strong negative views about him, about his service, about the things he has chosen to pursue in office on issue after issue of importance to North Carolinians,” Cunningham told me in a recent interview. “He has either capitulated to the partisan pressures or walked in line with corporate special interests.”
Everybody I spoke to expects an extraordinarily tight Senate race. The outcome could very well decide which party controls the Senate in 2021, going by the Sabato’s Crystal Ball ratings. Assuming Democrats lose in the Alabama Senate race but win in Arizona, Colorado, and Maine — which forecasters say is a fairly likely scenario — then they just need a win in either North Carolina or Iowa. With one of those toss-up states, by Sabato’s reckoning, Democrats can secure 50 Senate seats.
The last three presidential elections have been decided in North Carolina by less than 4 percentage points; Barack Obama and Jimmy Carter are the only Democratic presidential candidates to win in the modern era. And despite Donald Trump’s triumph there in 2016, Democrat Roy Cooper won that same year, becoming one of two Democratic governors in the South.
And 2020 looks as though it’ll be no different. Joe Biden leads Trump by less than a point in the RealClearPolitics polling average; Cunningham is polling 6 percentage points ahead of Tillis. That polling gap between Trump and Tillis is one reason for Democratic optimism; if an incumbent senator runs behind his party’s president, he seems to have some problems with the conservative base as well as persuadable voters.
But Tillis’s campaign is spending the final weeks of the race trying to erode Cunningham’s advantage by portraying him as a partisan Democrat.
The race was recently jolted by revelations that Cunningham sent romantic texts to a woman who is not his wife — which Cunningham admitted to and apologized for. On the same day, Tillis revealed he had tested positive for Covid-19 and would isolate at home.
North Carolina was already going to be one of the most fiercely contested Senate races of the year. Now, with Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg’s death and Republicans pledging to replace her in the middle of the campaign, the stakes of a Senate majority have never been clearer.
Why North Carolina is one of the swingiest of the swing states
North Carolina has, like most Southern states, undergone a fundamental political realignment in the past 50 years. Conservative Democrats have mostly left that party behind and many have joined the Republicans. At the same time, young people make up a growing percentage of the electorate, and while they officially register as unaffiliated, they tend to be more progressive in their politics.
By voter registration numbers, the state is neatly divided in thirds among Republicans, Democrats, and unaffiliated voters. But most of those unaffiliated voters are actually reliable votes for one party or the other. Instead, according to the political scientists and strategists I spoke with, North Carolina looks more like this: 45 percent Republican voters, 45 percent Democratic voters, and 10 percent truly persuadable swing voters.
So any winning coalition in the state starts with turning out as many voters in your 45 percent as you can — and then winning that small percentage of persuadable voters and ticket splitters.
Where are those gettable voters? The suburbs.
Urban voters overwhelmingly back Democratic candidates (Hillary Clinton won 66 percent of the central city vote in 2016, according to Catawba College political scientist Michael Bitzer, who writes at Old North State Politics). Rural voters are reliable votes for the Republicans, with Trump commanding a 21-point edge there over Clinton.
That leaves the suburbs as the most important battleground. But Bitzer distinguishes between two different kinds of suburbs, which are pivotal in distinct ways.
Related This North Carolina Democrat will try to unseat Thom Tillis this fall
Urban county suburbs are closer to their city centers, contained within the same county borders. These areas were decided by a thin margin in 2016: Clinton won them by 1 point, GOP Sen. Richard Burr took them by 3 points on his way to reelection, and Cooper by 4. These are moderate, sometimes ticket-splitting voters, and they helped Burr and Cooper win those races for their respective parties.
The surrounding county suburbs are a little farther out from the city and tend to be more solidly Republican. Trump won 65 percent of the vote in those places, and Burr won 63 percent. But even a slight underperformance there by Republicans can make a difference: Former North Carolina Gov. Pat McCrory won 61 percent of this exurban vote, a notch lower than Trump and Burr, when he lost to Cooper. Paired with Cooper’s edge in the urban suburbs, that was just enough to give the Democrat the statewide win.
To beat Tillis, Cunningham needs similarly strong performances in those areas. The suburbs have been shifting toward Democrats in the Trump era, powering their big wins in the 2018 midterms, and they are an absolute must-have for the party in this state.
“If North Carolina’s suburbs are acting like the national narrative, those urban suburbs are probably going to shift and the Republican margin in the surrounding suburbs is going to shrink,” Bitzer told me.
Democratic odds would be aided by strong turnout among younger voters and Black voters. Registration by voters in the millennial and Gen Z cohorts has been strong throughout 2020. But Democratic-leaning voters have not always turned out as reliably as Republican voters: A higher percentage of Democratic and unaffiliated voters registered in 2016 but failed to vote compared to Republicans, according to Bitzer’s research.
The pandemic is the other X-factor. North Carolina is a state with a robust vote-by-mail and early voting apparatus, so the state’s voters are already comfortable with those procedures. As of late August, 710,000 mail ballots had been requested. At the same point in the 2016 cycle, only 40,000 voters had asked for a mail-in ballot. More than half of the ballot requests so far in 2020 are from Democrats, whereas in 2016 the parties were evenly split.
But Bitzer cautioned against reading too much into that data. Mail-in ballots might just be an expression of the hardened opinions of partisan voters who have already made up their minds. These could simply be early votes that would have been made regardless, and they’re just coming in even earlier because of Covid-19.
“I’m still of an opinion that Covid is the great unknown at this point,” Bitzer said. “It could be the true partisans who are banking their ballots now.”
That would leave the persuadable voters to be fought over in the last few weeks of the campaign. Both sides think they have a strategy for winning them.
Cal Cunningham is running as a middle-of-the-road Democrat
Cunningham has the profile of many Democrats who won competitive races in the 2018 midterms: He’s a veteran and former military prosecutor who served two active-duty tours in Iraq. He served one term in the North Carolina state Senate in the early 2000s, worked for various law firms and a waste reduction company over the years, and ran for the US Senate in 2010 but lost the Democratic primary in a runoff. Cunningham is also, as he will readily remind reporters and voters, a lifelong North Carolinian.
His campaign strategy is neatly captured in how he’s run on Covid-19. In his interview with Vox, he pointed out that the United States is capable of coming together for the national good — just not, apparently, for Covid-19.
“If it had been a terrorist attack, there would have been an address to the nation, probably to a joint session of Congress. There would not have been a hesitation to invoke things like the Defense Production Act,” Cunningham said in late August. “There would have been clear communication from the top to every corner of America about how we fight that enemy. Here, we were told it was a hoax.”
It was a plea for unity, one that could be effective with moderate voters and not unlike the message often heard from Biden when he’s speaking to that part of the electorate.
Cunningham mostly leaves Trump out of it. He said instead that he is “incredibly laser-focused on Senator Tillis and the role a senator should play in a moment like this.”
Cunningham contrasted Tillis with Sen. Tom Cotton, a resolute conservative and Trump ally who still warned about the need to prepare for the worst after sitting in on a classified briefing in January about the Covid-19 threat. In Cunningham’s telling, Cotton was an example of a Republican urging vigilance early on, despite the Trump administration’s reluctance to acknowledge the severity of the coronavirus outbreak.
“My guy, the person I hold accountable in this race, was not one of them,” Cunningham argued to me. “He has demonstrated an unwillingness and an inability to ask the tough questions when a US senator, in a coequal branch of government, should be doing exactly that.”
So when given the chance, he decided to forgo any more direct criticisms of Trump and instead stayed “laser-focused” on his Republican opponent. That is the strategy that Democratic operatives and independent observers believe will serve him best as he zeroes in on the persuadable 10 percent of the North Carolina electorate.
“I think he is playing a classic middle-of-the-road [card], focusing on issues like health care, more so than the ‘I’m not in Donald Trump’s camp’ card,” Bitzer said. “Voters already know that. There’s a clean delineation in this state with the two parties, I don’t think he needs to clear that up.”
Cunningham has instead hammered Tillis over health care, both before and during the Covid-19 pandemic.
North Carolina is one of 12 states that haven’t expanded Medicaid through the Affordable Care Act, leaving more than 200,000 people without access to affordable health insurance. Tillis, who was speaker of the state House from 2011 to 2015, bears significant responsibility for that fact; in 2013, the state legislature passed a bill explicitly forbidding a governor from unilaterally expanding Medicaid.
That meant when Cooper became governor in 2017, having run on expanding Medicaid, he was unable to enact his top agenda item. Even though Tillis had left for the US Senate in 2015, his actions as a leader in the North Carolina House are still being felt to this day — and Cunningham wants voters to know that.
“North Carolinians, in particular, are more vulnerable than most to the public health crisis. We have one of the highest rates of uninsured because we didn’t expand Medicaid. ... We know why we did that. Tillis proudly takes credit for that,” Cunningham told me. “Today, almost 1.3 million out of 10 million people in my state can’t go see a doctor without having to fear what the size of that bill is because they just don’t have coverage.”
Thom Tillis is trying to paint Cunningham as a radical in moderate clothing
Tillis is in a weak position for an incumbent. He’s averaging 42.3 percent support in the RealClearPolitics average, well behind Trump’s 46.6 percent average. A Morning Consult analysis of the race found the senator lagging badly behind Trump with rural voters, with conservative voters, and with 2016 Trump voters. He was also performing worse than Trump with suburban and moderate voters.
Tillis’s record contains something to annoy both the far right and the rigidly centrist. He voted in favor of Obamacare repeal in the Senate, something Cunningham lumps together with Tillis’s opposition to Medicaid expansion in order to blame the senator for the state’s high uninsured rate. Tillis has been working to convince voters he supports protecting people with preexisting conditions even though the bill he voted for would have stripped those protections.
He also clashed with Trump over the president’s plan for declaring a national emergency along the Mexican border, initially signaling opposition to that plan for fear of the precedent it would set for a future Democratic administration. But he later reversed himself at the last minute and voted to affirm Trump’s plan; Cunningham therefore argues Tillis is unwilling to take principled stands against Trump.
“This race is as much about Tillis’s weakness as anything else,” Morgan Jackson, a Democratic strategist in the state, says. “He’s angering both of these voters at the same time. When he backs the president, he sends a signal to the swing voters that he’s not concerned about their issues. But then when he puts a mask on, that’s a direct repudiation of Trump.
“He’s trying to straddle this line, but it’s not working.”
There is an argument to be made that Tillis has never been a particularly strong statewide candidate. His slim 2014 win was unimpressive compared to some of the other Republican winners that year. Over 2019, Morning Consult found his approval rating with voters was 34 percent and his disapproval rating was 37 percent.
But nobody believes a Tillis loss is a foregone conclusion. The state’s voters are too evenly divided for a landslide.
“You have to fundamentally respect that North Carolina is a very purple state,” Jackson said.
And Tillis’s campaign and his political consultants believe they have an opening to shake up the race. Their plan relies primarily on convincing those moderate voters that Cunningham is not the reasonable Democrat he’s presenting himself as, and is instead a stalking horse for a more radical progressive agenda.
“Cal Cunningham wants to appear to be part of the Democrats of the past, not of the future,” Paul Shumaker, a Republican strategist supporting Tillis’s campaign, told me. “Cal Cunningham has been given a free pass until the last four weeks.”
They have seized on his comments at the first Senate debate in early September, when Cunningham expressed doubts about the veracity of a vaccine approved under the Trump administration. That’s a concern shared by many voters, polls show, but it’s still one that the Tillis camp believes makes Cunningham look like a party-line Democrat.
In the same vein, they have been citing his stated rationale for opposing the most recent Senate Republican Covid-19 relief package — that it was a party-line vote.
“He’s saying something to get elected, anything to get elected,” Tillis said at the debate.
This is the message from Tillis going forward: Cunningham can’t be trusted, and neither can the Democratic Party. The Republican side knows they entered the fall at a disadvantage, after Cunningham had spent much of the spring and summer building up his moderate bona fides with little pushback. But they believe they can turn the race around in the final stretch when that critical 10 percent of persuadable voters will make up their minds.
They have some reason to be optimistic. A lot of the unaffiliated voters are formerly Democrats who are too conservative for the modern party. In 2016, Burr was polling just 2 points ahead of his Democratic opponent but ended up winning by 5 points. There could be a hidden Tillis vote, especially if some of the conservatives who are currently sour on him come around and support him when they’re filling out their ballot for Trump.
Tillis’s closing argument will likely rest on the Supreme Court fight, which affirms his importance to Republicans as a swing-state senator. Cunningham will continue focusing on health care and his opponent, but not the president.
The two sides have been almost even in fundraising: about $13.7 million for Tillis and $14.8 million for Cunningham. It’s the recipe for a razor-thin race.
“That small percentage [of ticket splitters] can decide an election,” Bitzer said. “But it’s a smaller and smaller slice.”


vox--2020-10-03--Trump receives remdesivir, an emerging treatment for Covid-19 symptoms

President Donald Trump , who was hospitalized at Walter Reed Military Medical Center on Friday following a positive coronavirus test , has begun receiving the intravenous antiviral drug remdesivir , which doctors have used to treat some cases of Covid-19 .
White House physician Dr. Sean Conley has said the president has symptoms that include a low-grade fever , cough , congestion , and fatigue .
He issued a memo late Friday saying that Trump “ is doing very well.
” “ He is not requiring any supplemental oxygen , but in consultation with specialists we have elected to initiate @ @ @ @ @ @ @ first dose and is resting comfortably , ” reads the statement .
Remdesivir is allowed for treatment under an emergency use authorization ( EUA ) , which the Food and Drug Administration ( FDA ) grants for treatment of illnesses “ when there are no adequate , approved , and available alternatives.
” It is not yet clear how severe Trump ’ s case is ; though remdesivir is typically used for moderate to severe cases , it is possible Trump ’ s doctors are erring on the side of aggressively treating him @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of the United States .
Trump announced his diagnosis early Friday morning , and , not long after , received an initial dose of the experimental monoclonal antibody treatment .
As Vox ’ s Umair Irfan has explained , the experimental treatment is currently undergoing testing in clinical trials conducted by Regeneron , a biotech company , but does not have authorization from the FDA .
Trump was authorized by doctors to use the monoclonal cocktail under compassionate use guidelines .
Regeneron has said its research so far has found the treatment , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and the presence of the virus in those with Covid-19 .
Regeneron ’ s research has yet to be peer-reviewed , Irfan notes , so it is difficult to know how well REGN-COV2 actually works .
For now , the president has only had a single dose of the experimental treatment before beginning the more routine treatment of remdesivir .
Conley said Trump is also taking some vitamins and supplements , including vitamin D , which White House coronavirus task force member Dr. Anthony Fauci has recommended taking in order to reduce “ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ about remdesivir and its effectiveness It ’ s difficult to draw conclusions about how Trump is doing based on his course of treatment .
Gilead , the pharmaceutical company that makes remdesivir , has recommended it for patients with moderate to severe cases of Covid-19 , regardless of the need for supplemental oxygen .
When the FDA issued an emergency authorization of the drug back on May 1 , it did so for patients with severe cases of Covid-19 — meaning those with low blood oxygen levels , who receive supplemental oxygen or @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , the FDA said the drug did not need to be limited to only the most severe cases , and on Thursday , the FDA renewed the emergency authorization of the drug .
The drug is still pending formal FDA approval , since clinical trials to evaluate the drug ’ s effectiveness are still underway .
There have been several studies of the drug ’ s effectiveness for treating Covid-19 , assessing how quickly a patient shows improvement while on the drug compared to receiving a placebo .
The results so far suggest @ @ @ @ @ @ @ by a few days for severe cases , but there ’ s insufficient evidence on whether it works in mild or moderate cases .
When remdesivir received its first emergency authorization in May , a National Institutes of Health clinical trial had just showed that severe patients recovered in 11 days in the course of its use , compared to 15 days for patients on a placebo .
Another clinical trial from Gilead showed that the average time to improvement was five days among those with mild and moderate cases of the disease @ @ @ @ @ @ @ were administered remdesivir and those receiving the placebo .
A third study found patients with moderate cases are 65 percent more likely to show improvement over using a placebo , when the treatment lasts for five days .
That difference is erased when the treatment lasts for 10 days .
According to the health news website STAT , medical researchers have not been given access to Gilead ’ s raw research data to verify these clinical trials .
In a study published Saturday in the peer-reviewed medical journal The Lancet , the authors @ @ @ @ @ @ @ patients with severe infections who used remdesivir and those on a placebo .
The authors called these findings “ disappointing , ” and said the drug did not appear to lower viral load or mortality .
Remdesivir ’ s side effects are still being investigated as well .
Gilead notes that “ serious and unexpected side effects may happen , ” including allergic reactions and changes to patients ’ liver chemistry .
The European Union is looking into whether the drug can cause kidney damage in some patients .
Overall , Gilead has @ @ @ @ @ @ @ studied so it is possible that all of the risks are not known at this time.
” This therapy is not cheap .
Private insurance will be billed $ 520 per vial , according to Gilead , and $ 390 per dose for those on some government health programs .
For a five-day course of treatment , with a double dose on the first day , private insurers — as well as Medicare and Medicaid — will be charged $ 3,120 .
Government insurers , such as the Indian Health Service and the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ charged $ 2,340 per patient .
How much of those costs are passed on to the patient depends on their insurance plan .
A drug price watchdog group , Public Citizen , estimated that the drugmaker received $ 70 million in taxpayer dollars to develop the treatment , and called the subsequent pricing an “ offensive display of hubris and disregard for the public.
” Gilead ’ s CEO has said this price is “ well below the value ” of the drug .
In July , the Trump administration worked out an @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to supply half a million treatment courses to US hospitals through September .
And in October , the FDA said medical professionals could begin buying the therapeutic directly from Gilead .
President Trump championed the drug ’ s use before needing , on Friday , to use it himself .
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President Donald Trump, who was hospitalized at Walter Reed National Military Medical Center on Friday following a positive coronavirus test, has begun receiving the intravenous antiviral drug remdesivir, which doctors have used to treat some cases of Covid-19.
White House physician Dr. Sean Conley has said the president has symptoms that include a low-grade fever, cough, congestion, and fatigue. He issued a memo late Friday saying that Trump “is doing very well.”
“He is not requiring any supplemental oxygen, but in consultation with specialists we have elected to initiate remdesivir therapy. He has completed his first dose and is resting comfortably,” reads the statement.
Remdesivir is allowed for treatment under an emergency use authorization (EUA), which the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) grants for treatment of illnesses “when there are no adequate, approved, and available alternatives.”
It is not yet clear how severe Trump’s case is; though remdesivir is typically used for moderate to severe cases, it is possible Trump’s doctors are erring on the side of aggressively treating him, given his responsibilities as the leader of the United States.
Trump announced his diagnosis early Friday morning, and, not long after, received an initial dose of an experimental monoclonal antibody treatment. As Vox’s Umair Irfan has explained, the experimental treatment is currently undergoing testing in clinical trials conducted by Regeneron, a biotech company, but does not have authorization from the FDA.
Trump was authorized by doctors to use the monoclonal cocktail under compassionate use guidelines. Regeneron has said its research so far has found the treatment, known as REGN-COV2, to reduce symptoms and the presence of the virus in those with Covid-19. Regeneron’s research has yet to be peer-reviewed, Irfan notes, so it is difficult to know how well REGN-COV2 actually works.
For now, the president has only had a single dose of the experimental treatment before beginning the more routine treatment of remdesivir. Conley said Trump is also taking some vitamins and supplements, including vitamin D, which White House coronavirus task force member Dr. Anthony Fauci has recommended taking in order to reduce “susceptibility to infection.”
What we know about remdesivir and its effectiveness
It’s difficult to draw conclusions about how Trump is doing based on his course of treatment. Gilead, the pharmaceutical company that makes remdesivir, has recommended it for patients with moderate to severe cases of Covid-19, regardless of the need for supplemental oxygen.
When the FDA issued an emergency authorization of the drug back on May 1, it did so for patients with severe cases of Covid-19 — meaning those with low blood oxygen levels, who receive supplemental oxygen or are on a ventilator.
In August, the FDA said the drug did not need to be limited to only the most severe cases, and on Thursday, the FDA renewed the emergency authorization of the drug.
The drug is still pending formal FDA approval, since clinical trials to evaluate the drug’s effectiveness are still underway.
There have been several studies of the drug’s effectiveness for treating Covid-19, assessing how quickly a patient shows improvement while on the drug compared to receiving a placebo.
The results so far suggest it can reduce the duration of hospitalization by a few days for severe cases, but there’s insufficient evidence on whether it works in mild or moderate cases.
When remdesivir received its first emergency authorization in May, a National Institutes of Health clinical trial had just showed that severe patients recovered in 11 days in the course of its use, compared to 15 days for patients on a placebo.
Another clinical trial from Gilead showed that the average time to improvement was five days among those with mild and moderate cases of the disease, with no difference between those who were administered remdesivir and those receiving the placebo.
A third study found patients with moderate cases are 65 percent more likely to show improvement over using a placebo, when the treatment lasts for five days. That difference is erased when the treatment lasts for 10 days.
According to the health news website STAT, medical researchers have not been given access to Gilead’s raw research data to verify these clinical trials.
In a study published Saturday in the peer-reviewed medical journal The Lancet, the authors did not find a significant difference between patients with severe infections who used remdesivir and those on a placebo. The authors called these findings “disappointing,” and said the drug did not appear to lower viral load or mortality.
Remdesivir’s side effects are still being investigated as well. Gilead notes that “serious and unexpected side effects may happen,” including allergic reactions and changes to patients’ liver chemistry. The European Union is looking into whether the drug can cause kidney damage in some patients. Overall, Gilead has warned that remdesivir “is still being studied so it is possible that all of the risks are not known at this time.”
This therapy is not cheap. Private insurance will be billed $520 per vial, according to Gilead, and $390 per dose for those on some government health programs. For a five-day course of treatment, with a double dose on the first day, private insurers — as well as Medicare and Medicaid — will be charged $3,120. Government insurers, such as the Indian Health Service and the Department of Veterans Affairs, will be charged $2,340 per patient.
How much of those costs are passed on to the patient depends on their insurance plan.
A drug price watchdog group, Public Citizen, estimated that the drugmaker received $70 million in taxpayer dollars to develop the treatment, and called the subsequent pricing an “offensive display of hubris and disregard for the public.”
Gilead’s CEO has said this price is “well below the value” of the drug.
In July, the Trump administration worked out an agreement with Gilead that allowed the company to supply half a million treatment courses to US hospitals through September. And in October, the FDA said medical professionals could begin buying the therapeutic directly from Gilead. President Trump championed the drug’s use before needing, on Friday, to use it himself.


vox--2020-10-03--North Carolina Democrat Cal Cunningham admitted to sending romantic extramarital texts

Cal Cunningham , the Democrat running in North Carolina ’ s highly competitive US Senate race , has owned up to sending romantic texts to a woman who is not his wife .
Cunningham , who is married with two children , sent texts to Arlene Guzman Todd , a public relations strategist in California .
The news was first reported by NationalFile.com , which detailed screenshots of the texts between the two .
“ I have hurt my family , disappointed my friends , and am deeply sorry , ” Cunningham said in a statement obtained by Vox .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ relationships is taking complete responsibility , which I do .
I ask that my family ’ s privacy be respected in this personal matter.
” Cunningham has vowed to not drop out of the race .
He has been leading sitting Republican Sen. Thom Tillis consistently in recent polls , and has a 6 percentage point lead in the RealClearPolitics polling average of the state .
The big question is whether these revelations , coming a month before the election , will hurt Cunningham with swing voters , especially suburban women .
“ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ongoing support that North Carolinians have extended in this campaign , and in the remaining weeks before this election I will continue to work to earn the opportunity to fight for the people of our state , ” Cunningham said in his statement .
The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee — the campaign arm of Senate Democrats — released a statement also reiterating their support of the candidate .
“ North Carolinians are supporting Cal because he will protect health care coverage for pre-existing conditions , fight to bring down the costs of prescription @ @ @ @ @ @ @ from this crisis , ” said DSCC communications director Lauren Passalacqua .
The revelations about Cunningham ’ s texts , and the candidate owning up to it , wasn ’ t the only news to rock the North Carolina Senate race this week .
On Friday , Tillis announced he had tested positive for the coronavirus .
He attended last weekend ’ s White House ceremony for Supreme Court nominee Judge Amy Coney Barrett ; numerous attendees of that event have now tested positive for the coronavirus , including President Donald Trump .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ the fact that Cunningham and Tillis recently appeared together on a debate stage , Cunningham announced he also would get tested .
The text messages between the two obtained by National File show Cunningham and Guzman Todd planning to see each other .
“ Pick a day , city , make an excuse for the fam , ditch a staffer , starch your white shirt , and be ready to kiss a lot , ” a text from Guzman Todd reads .
“ Would make my day to roll over and kiss you @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Cunningham reads .
The two also talked about Cunningham ’ s Senate campaign .
One text message from Cunningham says , “ Nervous about the next 100 days !
!
” “ Understandable , ” Guzman Todd replies .
“ Well sending you love and support from here .
I know you got this.
” The fact that Cunningham sent extramarital texts could be damaging to his candidacy .
Even though North Carolina is split pretty evenly between Democrats and Republicans , it ’ s still seen as a relatively conservative state .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ more about the policy differences between Tillis and Cunningham more than the Democrat ’ s personal life .
Candidates for office often run on their sterling personal backgrounds , and family life is often used to illustrate a candidate ’ s character and judgment .
Cunningham is a former state lawmaker , military prosecutor , and veteran .
That ’ s the kind of profile a Senate candidate wants to have , and Cunningham ’ s website emphasizes his family and talks about how he met his wife Elizabeth at the University of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s image , but by the standards of modern political sex scandals ( including the multiple sexual assault allegations against the sitting president ) , it ’ s relatively tame .
The North Carolina Senate race is a top target for Democrats North Carolina is a crucial swing state , and Democrats think they have a good shot at flipping it in 2020 .
Yes , North Carolina is a southern state .
But it ’ s also seen a lot of demographic changes in recent years , and its changing suburbs @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Vox ’ s Dylan Scott explained in his in-depth profile of the state : By voter registration numbers , the state is neatly divided in thirds among Republicans , Democrats , and unaffiliated voters .
But most of those unaffiliated voters are actually reliable votes for one party or the other .
Instead , according to the political scientists and strategists I spoke with , North Carolina looks more like this : 45 percent Republican voters , 45 percent Democratic voters , and 10 percent truly persuadable swing voters .
So any winning @ @ @ @ @ @ @ out as many voters in your 45 percent as you can — and then winning that small percentage of persuadable voters and ticket splitters .
Where are those gettable voters ?
The suburbs .
The suburbs will be the battleground where the North Carolina Senate race plays out this fall .
To win his race , Cunningham will also need women voters — a constituency friendlier to Democrats , and with whom Democratic nominee Joe Biden is winning handily in polls — to turn out for him .
The best Cunningham can hope @ @ @ @ @ @ @ texts blows over , and that voters care more about his message of expanding Medicaid in North Carolina , boosting unemployment benefits , and passing more Covid-19 aid .
And the Democratic Party is hoping for the same : North Carolina is a key state for Democrats in order to flip the Senate majority , and a loss here could be a big blow to their hopes .
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That is our mission at Vox .
But our distinctive brand of explanatory journalism takes resources .
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Cal Cunningham, the Democrat running in North Carolina’s highly competitive US Senate race, has owned up to sending romantic texts to a woman who is not his wife.
Cunningham, who is married with two children, sent texts to Arlene Guzman Todd, a public relations strategist in California. The news was first reported by NationalFile.com, which detailed screenshots of the texts between the two.
“I have hurt my family, disappointed my friends, and am deeply sorry,” Cunningham said in a statement obtained by Vox. “The first step in repairing those relationships is taking complete responsibility, which I do. I ask that my family’s privacy be respected in this personal matter.”
Cunningham has vowed to not drop out of the race. He has been leading sitting Republican Sen. Thom Tillis consistently in recent polls, and has a 6 percentage point lead in the RealClearPolitics polling average of the state. The big question is whether these revelations, coming a month before the election, will hurt Cunningham with swing voters, especially suburban women.
“I remain grateful and humbled by the ongoing support that North Carolinians have extended in this campaign, and in the remaining weeks before this election I will continue to work to earn the opportunity to fight for the people of our state,” Cunningham said in his statement.
The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee — the campaign arm of Senate Democrats — released a statement also reiterating their support of the candidate.
“North Carolinians are supporting Cal because he will protect health care coverage for pre-existing conditions, fight to bring down the costs of prescription drugs, and help our country recover from this crisis,” said DSCC communications director Lauren Passalacqua.
The revelations about Cunningham’s texts, and the candidate owning up to it, wasn’t the only news to rock the North Carolina Senate race this week. On Friday, Tillis announced he had tested positive for the coronavirus. He attended last weekend’s White House ceremony for Supreme Court nominee Judge Amy Coney Barrett; numerous attendees of that event have now tested positive for the coronavirus, including President Donald Trump.
Tillis is planning to quarantine. Given the fact that Cunningham and Tillis recently appeared together on a debate stage, Cunningham announced he also would get tested.
Cunningham’s extramarital texts, briefly explained
The text messages between the two obtained by National File show Cunningham and Guzman Todd planning to see each other.
“Pick a day, city, make an excuse for the fam, ditch a staffer, starch your white shirt, and be ready to kiss a lot,” a text from Guzman Todd reads.
“Would make my day to roll over and kiss you about now,” another text from Cunningham reads.
The two also talked about Cunningham’s Senate campaign. One text message from Cunningham says, “Nervous about the next 100 days!!”
“Understandable,” Guzman Todd replies. “Well sending you love and support from here. I know you got this.”
The fact that Cunningham sent extramarital texts could be damaging to his candidacy. Even though North Carolina is split pretty evenly between Democrats and Republicans, it’s still seen as a relatively conservative state. But Democrats are betting voters will care more about the policy differences between Tillis and Cunningham more than the Democrat’s personal life.
Candidates for office often run on their sterling personal backgrounds, and family life is often used to illustrate a candidate’s character and judgment. Cunningham is a former state lawmaker, military prosecutor, and veteran. That’s the kind of profile a Senate candidate wants to have, and Cunningham’s website emphasizes his family and talks about how he met his wife Elizabeth at the University of North Carolina.
This may tarnish Cunningham’s image, but by the standards of modern political sex scandals (including the multiple sexual assault allegations against the sitting president), it’s relatively tame.
The North Carolina Senate race is a top target for Democrats
North Carolina is a crucial swing state, and Democrats think they have a good shot at flipping it in 2020.
Yes, North Carolina is a southern state. But it’s also seen a lot of demographic changes in recent years, and its changing suburbs are looking friendlier to Democrats. As Vox’s Dylan Scott explained in his in-depth profile of the state:
By voter registration numbers, the state is neatly divided in thirds among Republicans, Democrats, and unaffiliated voters. But most of those unaffiliated voters are actually reliable votes for one party or the other. Instead, according to the political scientists and strategists I spoke with, North Carolina looks more like this: 45 percent Republican voters, 45 percent Democratic voters, and 10 percent truly persuadable swing voters. So any winning coalition in the state starts with turning out as many voters in your 45 percent as you can — and then winning that small percentage of persuadable voters and ticket splitters. Where are those gettable voters? The suburbs.
The suburbs will be the battleground where the North Carolina Senate race plays out this fall. To win his race, Cunningham will also need women voters — a constituency friendlier to Democrats, and with whom Democratic nominee Joe Biden is winning handily in polls — to turn out for him.
The best Cunningham can hope for is that the news about his texts blows over, and that voters care more about his message of expanding Medicaid in North Carolina, boosting unemployment benefits, and passing more Covid-19 aid.
And the Democratic Party is hoping for the same: North Carolina is a key state for Democrats in order to flip the Senate majority, and a loss here could be a big blow to their hopes.


vox--2020-10-04--Everyone in the White House cluster who has said they tested positive for the coronavirus

Everyone in the White House cluster who has said they tested positive for the coronavirus Share All sharing options for : Everyone in the White House cluster who has said they tested positive for the coronavirus A growing number of people in and around the White House have tested positive for the coronavirus — including President Donald Trump himself .
The president announced late Thursday night that he and first lady Melania Trump had tested positive for the coronavirus , joining several other high-ranking US government officials who have contracted SARS-CoV-2 .
Trump went to Walter Reed National Military Medical @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Friday evening to undergo treatment .
Republican Sens .
Mike Lee of Utah and Thom Tillis of North Carolina also announced they tested positive ; both attended an event last weekend honoring the nomination of Judge Amy Coney Barrett to the Supreme Court .
Several other people , including former senior White House counselor Kellyanne Conway and Trump campaign manager Bill Stepien , also tested positive on Friday after attending the event at the White House .
Former New Jersey Gov .
Chris Christie announced Saturday morning that he has tested positive , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ aide Nicholas Luna has tested positive as well .
Barrett , for her part , was diagnosed with the coronavirus over the summer but has recovered .
It is unknown whether she now carries immunity .
It is worth noting that beyond the relatively well-known senators , members of the press and White House officials who have tested positive , it ’ s possible less well-known staff members and security officers could have been infected with the coronavirus .
But it ’ s not just the one event .
On Saturday , Sen. @ @ @ @ @ @ @ having tested positive .
Johnson was not at the event , but he did attend a lunch with other Republican senators this week .
The White House , in other words , is now a Covid-19 hot spot .
While it ’ s not clear how the president was exposed , Trump was in regular contact this week with senior counselor Hope Hicks , who tested positive on Thursday afternoon .
Hicks had traveled with Trump multiple times this week , including to Tuesday night ’ s presidential debate in Cleveland , Ohio @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Rand Paul and Bill Cassidy were diagnosed with Covid-19 but have successfully recovered .
The virus has also infected at least 14 House members — nine Republicans and five Democrats — since March .
But this is the first time the virus , which has killed more than 208,000 Americans , has spread in such a concentrated manner among White House officials , staffers , and members of the press corps .
As of early Friday afternoon , Vice President Mike Pence and his wife Karen have both tested negative , as @ @ @ @ @ @ @ wife Jill .
Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Director of National Intelligence John Ratcliffe tested negative as well .
Trump and his staff have been traveling to campaign events for several weeks .
Just in the last week , the president has held rallies in Florida , Virginia , Pennsylvania , and Minnesota , in addition to the debate in Ohio .
Bill Stepien , Trump ’ s campaign manager , tested positive Friday night .
Sen. Marsha Blackburn , a Republican from Tennessee , flew with Trump to the debate , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ tested and isolating “ out of an abundance of caution.
” Later that day , she said she had tested negative , as did Sen. Kelly Loeffler ( R-GA ) .
One way to mitigate the outbreak from the event is to undergo a major contact tracing operation , though it is unclear if the White House is doing so .
As Vox ’ s Dylan Scott explained , the only way to figure out the full extent of the outbreak is contact tracing : “ identifying who has been in close contact @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , and asking them to quarantine to prevent Covid-19 from spreading to others , and to get tested themselves.
” The Trump campaign announced in a statement Friday that he and his family are suspending in-person events .
Pence ’ s campaign travel will continue and he plans to participate in the vice presidential debate against Democratic vice presidential nominee Sen. Kamala Harris on Wednesday .
Here ’ s what we know about who has tested positive — and negative — for SARS-CoV-2 so far .
The list of people who have tested @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , president of the University of Notre Dame • Three journalists from the White House press corps , according to the White House Correspondents Association • A White House press staffer , according to the correspondents ’ association A brief list of key politicians and officials who have tested negative Given the level of uncertainty created by this news , Vox has compiled a list of key administration figures who help run the country , key lawmakers who have been in contact with the president , and key Democrats in the 2020 election @ @ @ @ @ @ @ results for the virus .
While it could take several days for an individual who has contracted the virus to test positive , these are the initial negative tests .
As of 8:45 am ET Saturday , here ’ s the list : • Republican Reps. Pete Stauber and Tom Emmer of Minnesota , who traveled with Trump earlier this week , according to a reporter from the MinnPost • Republican Sens .
Marsha Blackburn of Tennessee and Kelly Loeffler of Georgia , who had been in contact with Trump in the past @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in Atlanta Will you help keep Vox free for all ?
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Everyone in the White House cluster who has reportedly tested positive for the coronavirus
Share All sharing options for: Everyone in the White House cluster who has reportedly tested positive for the coronavirus
More than 20 people in and around the White House have tested positive for the coronavirus in recent weeks — including President Donald Trump, first lady Melania Trump, and their son, Barron Trump.
The president announced on October 2 that he and Melania Trump had tested positive for the coronavirus that causes Covid-19, joining several other high-ranking US government officials who have contracted SARS-CoV-2. Trump was given an experimental antibody treatment and oxygen at the White House, before being moved to Walter Reed National Military Medical Center in Bethesda, Maryland for three days.
Melania Trump recuperated at home. Barron Trump, his mother announced on October 14, tested positive after his parents; the first lady said he was asymptomatic and has since tested negative.
Some prominent officials in the Trump administration have recently tested positive as well, including presidential adviser Stephen Miller, as well as press secretary Kayleigh McEnany and at least four members of her staff. McEnany — like others in the White House cluster — failed to immediately quarantine after Trump’s diagnosis, and she appeared in front of reporters without a mask in the following days.
While the administration has refused to conduct contact tracing, many Covid-19 cases in the cluster are believed to have originated around the time of a White House event — which took place indoors and outdoors — on September 26 honoring the nomination of Judge Amy Coney Barrett to the Supreme Court.
Dr. Anthony Fauci of the federal coronavirus task force has called the gathering a “superspreader event,” criticizing it for being a “situation where people were crowded together and were not wearing masks.”
A number of attendees tested positive for the coronavirus in the days following the event, including GOP Sens. Mike Lee of Utah and Thom Tillis of North Carolina; former senior White House counselor Kellyanne Conway; and Trump campaign manager Bill Stepien.
Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, another attendee, also tested positive and was hospitalized for a week.
Barrett, for her part, was diagnosed with Covid-19 over the summer but has recovered. It is unknown whether she now carries immunity.
But it’s not just the one event. On October 3, Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI) announced he had tested positive. Johnson was not at the Barrett event, but he did attend a lunch with other Republican senators last week. Rep. Bill Huizenga (R-MI) said on October 14 he was isolating after a positive test. There was some concern Barrett’s confirmation hearing could contribute to spread given many senators — including Lee, who said he is “no longer contagious” — are attending in person.
There have been more cases of political figures in recent days, which do not immediately appear linked to the cluster: Joe Biden’s campaign announced on October 15 that Kamala Harris’s communications director and a flight crew member tested positive for coronavirus. The campaign said that others, including Harris and Biden, have repeatedly tested negative in recent days, and that it is conducting contact tracing.
Beyond the relatively well-known senators, members of the press, and White House officials who have tested positive, less well-known government staff members and security officers have been infected with the coronavirus as well. A number of such cases have been confirmed, including McEnany’s deputies, Trump aide Nicholas Luna, and military officials assigned to the White House. Vice Commandant Charles Ray of the Coast Guard tested positive, leading other military leaders to enter quarantine.
The White House, in other words, became a Covid-19 hot spot.
Over the summer, Republican Sens. Rand Paul and Bill Cassidy were diagnosed with Covid-19 but have successfully recovered. The virus has also infected more than 15 House members since March. But this is the first time the virus, which has killed more than 215,000 Americans, has spread in such a concentrated manner among White House officials, staffers, and members of the press corps.
While it’s not clear how the president was exposed, Trump was in regular contact last week with senior counselor Hope Hicks, whose positive coronavirus test was revealed on Thursday, October 1. Hicks had traveled with Trump multiple times ahead of his diagnosis, including to the September 29 presidential debate in Cleveland, Ohio.
Vice President Mike Pence and his wife Karen have both repeatedly tested negative, as have Democratic nominee Joe Biden and his wife Jill. Some other Trump administration officials, including Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Director of National Intelligence John Ratcliffe, have tested negative as well.
Following his recovery, Trump has resumed campaigning, promising to hold a rally nearly every day between now and November 3. He kicked these off with events in Florida and Pennsylvania, and spent part of each event incorrectly stating that those who have had the coronavirus are immune to reinfection.
While the rallies are all expected to be held outdoors, they have, thus far, not featured social distancing or universal mask wearing, fueling concerns that they will create new coronavirus clusters, both in the locales in which they are held, and among Trump’s staff. And the speculation is not unfounded; local officials believe a rally the president held on September 18 in Bemidji, Minnesota, caused at least nine cases.
Here’s what we know about some key figures who have tested positive — and negative — for SARS-CoV-2 so far.
People in the White House cluster who have reportedly tested positive for the coronavirus
This list includes people who attended the September 26 Barrett event and/or have had close recent contact with the White House.
Crede Bailey, the head of the White House security office, was hospitalized with Covid-19 in September, according to Bloomberg. He reportedly became sick before the Amy Coney Barrett event.
Two housekeeping staff members at the White House tested positive in early September, according to the New York Times.
Vice Commandant Ray, Sen. Johnson, and Republican National Committee Chair Ronna McDaniel have also recently tested positive. Johnson and McDaniel were not at the Barrett event, but McDaniel had contact with Trump in the days before it.
A brief list of key politicians and officials who have tested negative
Vox has compiled a list of key administration figures who help run the country, key lawmakers who have been in contact with the president, and key Democrats in the 2020 election cycle who have recently gotten negative test results for the virus.
While it could take several days for an individual who has contracted the virus to test positive, some recent negative tests have been made public. Here’s a partial list so far: