vox--2020-10-22--How old should a president be?

How old should a president be?

Part of the May Issue of The Highlight , our home for ambitious stories that explain our world .
Four years ago , the United States elected its oldest president to date .
In the coming weeks , 74-year-old President Trump and 77-year-old Joe Biden , the former vice president and now Democratic nominee , will face off after a Democratic primary in which the other top contenders were 78 ( Sen. Bernie Sanders ) and 70 ( Sen. Elizabeth Warren ) .
The graying ballot has led many to suggest that the stress of presidency is not for the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ time to cap the age of future candidates .
But we couldn ’ t pin down the one aspect of this thorny issue that would matter most to voters .
With longer life spans and improved health among older Americans , is it true that age affects a president ’ s performance ?
Could an old president ever represent the interests of the young ?
So Vox asked experts on opposing ends of the age spectrum — one specializing in the elderly , and the other , the politics of the young — @ @ @ @ @ @ @ should a president be ?
Ultimately , the question elicits no easy answer .
But in asking our writers to tackle the idea , we can better understand how age affects and intersects with the most powerful role in our nation .
The “ youth vote ” is new .
But don ’ t assume it necessarily favors a young president .
Lately , it ’ s been hard to ignore the unbearable oldness of American politics .
Donald Trump , the country ’ s oldest first-term president at 74 , was born @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Joe Biden , the 77-year-old Democratic nominee , is older than the microwave .
Bernie Sanders , 79 , was born shortly before the attack on Pearl Harbor , the same year you could first buy a packet of M & Ms .
Two of the highest-profile women candidates for president — Hillary Clinton and Elizabeth Warren — were also born in the 1940s , at least a decade before little girls started to play with Barbie dolls .
The graying of the American presidency is especially notable because our nation ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Theodore Roosevelt , who became the youngest president ever at 42 , had the foresight to preserve roughly 230 million acres of public land for future generations to enjoy .
John F. Kennedy , inaugurated at 43 with the cry that “ the torch has been passed to a new generation of Americans , ” found some common cause with the civil rights movement , vowed to put a man on the moon , and started the Peace Corps to spread American values ( via American young people ) around the world @ @ @ @ @ @ @ at 46 , shielded young undocumented immigrants from deportation and committed to the Paris climate agreement , aimed at preserving the planet for future generations .
The youngest presidents tended to think more clearly about policies that would benefit future generations , and were less circumscribed by longstanding norms and prejudices .
Even famous presidents who seem like great men of history would have been considered young , fresh faces in our current climate .
Abraham Lincoln was in his early 50s when he shepherded the nation through the Civil War , younger @ @ @ @ @ @ @ was 51 — the same age as Cory Booker — when he started implementing the New Deal to pull America out of the Great Depression .
One of those New Deal initiatives was the National Youth Administration , which provided “ work study ” for young Americans who were out of a job ; the Texas division of the NYA was led by a young Lyndon B. Johnson , who , years later , would take the oath of office at 55 .
He had already created Medicare and Medicaid as part of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ time he was Amy Klobuchar ’ s age .
Young , glamorous candidates have typically fared better in general elections , but the votes don ’ t always break down according to age .
The idea of the “ youth vote ” is actually relatively new , and these young presidents weren ’ t necessarily defined by their support from young voters .
Until the early 2000s , young people tended to vote roughly the same way as their parents did .
Even the baby boomers , although slightly more liberal than their @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and Ronald Reagan in 1980 .
In fact , Barack Obama was the first president to owe his decisive victory to youth enthusiasm .
After a series of “ youthquakes ” in the primaries helped Obama beat Clinton , and a massive mobilization of college students and young people , two-thirds of voters under 30 chose Obama over John McCain in 2008 .
But young voters tend to connect with big , bold ideas for America ’ s future , rather than policies that seem stuck in the past .
So it ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ contenders — both in their 70s — have struggled to connect with young Americans .
Roughly two-thirds of people ages 18 to 29 disapprove of Trump , according to a Harvard Institute of Politics study that has tracked youth attitudes across his presidency , and it ’ s not hard to see why : From withdrawing from the Paris climate agreement to threatening protections for young immigrants to weakening student debt oversight , Trump ’ s policies have favored his older base over the next generation of Americans .
Young voters ’ attraction @ @ @ @ @ @ @ t always lead young voters to young candidates And while Joe Biden has actively tried to reach out to the young voters who favored his more progressive opponent , he ’ s struggled to build youth enthusiasm around a message that is more about a return to a gentler past than a vision of a bold new future .
But young voters ’ attraction to big , bold ideas doesn ’ t always lead young voters to young candidates ; in 2020 , they actually favored the oldest contender , Bernie Sanders , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Yet Sanders ’ s 2020 bid failed , in part because he based his electoral strategy on a massive surge in youth turnout that didn ’ t materialize as much as his campaign expected .
Youth support is important , but without massive turnout , it can ’ t deliver a win .
And generational change is almost always more complicated than it appears .
Of course , medical and lifestyle advances — like the decline of smoking — have meant that people in their 60s and 70s are likely healthier and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ age in earlier eras .
Still , US leadership is trending old not because voters favor older leaders , but because the system protects incumbents — and because the campaign finance system makes it harder than ever to raise the money necessary to unseat a sitting leader .
It ’ s no secret that millennials are worse off financially than their parents were at their age ( due to the coronavirus pandemic , Gen Z is likely to be similarly strapped for cash ) .
At the same time , the infusion of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ running for office exorbitantly expensive : By the early 2010s , the average House of Representatives race cost about $ 1.5 million , roughly double what it cost to run when boomers were first entering the political arena in the early 1980s .
Even the average state legislature race cost more than $ 80,000 .
In other words , politics got more expensive at the exact moment when the rising generation of young people were most financially strapped : If millennials couldn ’ t afford to buy a home or a car , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Congress ?
If they can ’ t run for Congress , how could they ever run for Senate or president ?
Without a new generation of leaders breathing down their necks , the established leaders are simply sticking around and aging in place .
And if America can ’ t build a bench of young political talent willing and able to step into the arena , there may be nobody left to replace them .
Charlotte Alter is a national correspondent at Time covering political campaigns and youth social movements .
Her first @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Been Waiting For : How a New Generation of Leaders Will Transform America , was published in February .
There are unexpected strengths to an aging mind Come November , we ’ ll have two septuagenarian candidates facing off .
If they ’ re not geezers , they ’ re geezer-adjacent .
Should we be worried ?
A president ’ s schedule requires fortitude , patience , and intense concentration .
A typical day includes a series of high-level meetings and events , including briefings by Cabinet members and White House staff , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and delivering remarks at various press events .
There are official visits to important allied countries , international meetings such as the United Nations General Assembly each fall , and political events in key states .
The president signs ( or vetoes ) legislation but is also the chief executive of the largest employer in the US , a diplomat , and commander in chief of the armed forces .
It ’ s a grueling job physically and cognitively , and it ’ s natural to question whether there is an upper age @ @ @ @ @ @ @ at the health of former presidents doesn ’ t necessarily provide any answers .
Our presidents have ranged widely in age , and age hasn ’ t always correlated with mental and physical fitness .
George W. Bush ( age 54 at inauguration , 62 when he left office ) was up at 5:15 each morning and in bed by 9 pm .
But Bill Clinton , one of our younger presidents at just 46 when elected , had a quadruple bypass operation on his heart just three years after leaving office .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ Ronald Reagan , who was elected at 69 , was diagnosed with Alzheimer ’ s four years after he left office .
It is true that our brains slow down with every decade after 60 , but slow isn ’ t necessarily bad .
Our slow , deliberate cognitions tend to be more accurate than snap judgments .
And although our brains shrink with age , size isn ’ t everything ; if it were , then there would be no smart children , and people with enormous heads would be smarter than @ @ @ @ @ @ @ t .
And although the societal narrative is that we tend to lose mental ability as we age , some brain functions actually improve .
For example , we see positive changes in mood and outlook , punctuated by the exceptional benefits of experience .
Many older minds can intuitively synthesize a lifetime of information and make smarter decisions based on decades of learning from their mistakes .
( Not every older adult , of course — we can all think of exceptions . )
The aging brain changes , thanks to neuroplasticity @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , and finds other ways to do things .
Abstract reasoning can actually improve .
Oldsters aren ’ t as fast , perhaps , at mental calculations and recalling names , but they tend to be much better and faster at seeing the big picture To cognitive scientists like myself , wisdom is the ability to see patterns where others don ’ t see them , to extract common points from prior experience and use those to make predictions about what is likely to happen next .
Oldsters aren ’ t as fast @ @ @ @ @ @ @ recalling names , but they tend to be much better and faster at seeing the big picture .
And that results from the accumulated set of things we ’ ve seen and experienced — what we call crystallized intelligence .
Naturally , the more you ’ ve experienced , the more of this type of intelligence you are able to tap into .
It ’ s also important not to focus too much on how many birthdays a person has had .
Some people remain vigorous well past 80 .
Just look at @ @ @ @ @ @ @ now 104-year-old competitive runner who took home two gold medals in the senior games last year .
Or Eubie Blake , the late ragtime composer and pianist who in 1979 turned in one of his most delightful performances on Saturday Night Live at age 92 .
Neuroscientist Brenda Milner remains an influential researcher at age 101 , and the Dalai Lama , 84 , recently published his 125th book .
A big part of how well one ’ s mental capacities fare at any age revolves around healthy practices concerning sleep , diet @ @ @ @ @ @ @ important after age 65 but aren ’ t always easy for a busy president to accomplish .
Good diet and exercise help us sleep , allowing us to consolidate and strengthen memories .
It ’ s a myth that older adults need less sleep than younger adults .
One night of disrupted sleep can lead to memory difficulties for up to two weeks .
I asked the Dalai Lama the key to his productivity and energy , and , without missing a beat , he said , “ Nine hours of sleep every @ @ @ @ @ @ @ January , I proposed that we should find a term that ’ s less emotionally laden than old people .
I suggested we try oldsters , because it sounds like youngsters and hipsters .
But 65-year-old Gayle King wasn ’ t having it .
And so to Gayle , and the rest of the country , how ’ s this : Perhaps older adults should de-stigmatize and proudly take back the word geezer .
Our next president is likely to either start out as a geezer or become one in office .
But @ @ @ @ @ @ @ cognitive limitations , we should be looking at the science , which suggests that an aging mind might be better at making big-picture decisions , or — due to age-related increases in empathy and compassion — be skilled at bringing people together .
We ’ ve had great presidents and not-so-great presidents , but the idea that age is correlated to their performance is simply not true .
Ultimately , aging varies so much from person to person that the number of birthdays you ’ ve had doesn ’ t say much about @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is a neuroscientist .
His newest book is the New York Times bestseller , Successful Aging : A Neuroscientist Explores the Power and Potential of Our Lives .
Every day at Vox , we aim to answer your most important questions and provide you , and our audience around the world , with information that has the power to save lives .
Our mission has never been more vital than it is in this moment : to empower you through understanding .
Vox ’ s work is reaching more people than ever , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ takes resources — particularly during a pandemic and an economic downturn .
Your financial contribution will not constitute a donation , but it will enable our staff to continue to offer free articles , videos , and podcasts at the quality and volume that this moment requires .
Please consider making a contribution to Vox today .

Part of the May Issue of The Highlight, our home for ambitious stories that explain our world.
Four years ago, the United States elected its oldest president to date. In the coming weeks, 74-year-old President Trump and 77-year-old Joe Biden, the former vice president and now Democratic nominee, will face off after a Democratic primary in which the other top contenders were 78 (Sen. Bernie Sanders) and 70 (Sen. Elizabeth Warren).
The graying ballot has led many to suggest that the stress of presidency is not for the aged, or that it might be time to cap the age of future candidates. But we couldn’t pin down the one aspect of this thorny issue that would matter most to voters. With longer life spans and improved health among older Americans, is it true that age affects a president’s performance? Could an old president ever represent the interests of the young? So Vox asked experts on opposing ends of the age spectrum — one specializing in the elderly, and the other, the politics of the young — to answer this question: How old should a president be?
Ultimately, the question elicits no easy answer. But in asking our writers to tackle the idea, we can better understand how age affects and intersects with the most powerful role in our nation.
The “youth vote” is new. But don’t assume it necessarily favors a young president.
Lately, it’s been hard to ignore the unbearable oldness of American politics. Donald Trump, the country’s oldest first-term president at 74, was born the year the bikini was invented. Joe Biden, the 77-year-old Democratic nominee, is older than the microwave. Bernie Sanders, 79, was born shortly before the attack on Pearl Harbor, the same year you could first buy a packet of M&Ms. Two of the highest-profile women candidates for president — Hillary Clinton and Elizabeth Warren — were also born in the 1940s, at least a decade before little girls started to play with Barbie dolls.
The graying of the American presidency is especially notable because our nation’s most visionary presidents have typically been young. Theodore Roosevelt, who became the youngest president ever at 42, had the foresight to preserve roughly 230 million acres of public land for future generations to enjoy. John F. Kennedy, inaugurated at 43 with the cry that “the torch has been passed to a new generation of Americans,” found some common cause with the civil rights movement, vowed to put a man on the moon, and started the Peace Corps to spread American values (via American young people) around the world. Barack Obama, who became president at 46, shielded young undocumented immigrants from deportation and committed to the Paris climate agreement, aimed at preserving the planet for future generations.
The youngest presidents tended to think more clearly about policies that would benefit future generations, and were less circumscribed by longstanding norms and prejudices.
Even famous presidents who seem like great men of history would have been considered young, fresh faces in our current climate. Abraham Lincoln was in his early 50s when he shepherded the nation through the Civil War, younger than Kamala Harris. Franklin Delano Roosevelt was 51 — the same age as Cory Booker — when he started implementing the New Deal to pull America out of the Great Depression. One of those New Deal initiatives was the National Youth Administration, which provided “work study” for young Americans who were out of a job; the Texas division of the NYA was led by a young Lyndon B. Johnson, who, years later, would take the oath of office at 55. He had already created Medicare and Medicaid as part of his “Great Society” by the time he was Amy Klobuchar’s age.
Young, glamorous candidates have typically fared better in general elections, but the votes don’t always break down according to age. The idea of the “youth vote” is actually relatively new, and these young presidents weren’t necessarily defined by their support from young voters. Until the early 2000s, young people tended to vote roughly the same way as their parents did. Even the baby boomers, although slightly more liberal than their parents, favored Richard Nixon in 1968 and Ronald Reagan in 1980. In fact, Barack Obama was the first president to owe his decisive victory to youth enthusiasm. After a series of “youthquakes” in the primaries helped Obama beat Clinton, and a massive mobilization of college students and young people, two-thirds of voters under 30 chose Obama over John McCain in 2008.
But young voters tend to connect with big, bold ideas for America’s future, rather than policies that seem stuck in the past. So it’s no surprise that our current presidential contenders — both in their 70s — have struggled to connect with young Americans. Roughly two-thirds of people ages 18 to 29 disapprove of Trump, according to a Harvard Institute of Politics study that has tracked youth attitudes across his presidency, and it’s not hard to see why: From withdrawing from the Paris climate agreement to threatening protections for young immigrants to weakening student debt oversight, Trump’s policies have favored his older base over the next generation of Americans.
Young voters’ attraction to big, bold ideas doesn’t always lead young voters to young candidates
And while Joe Biden has actively tried to reach out to the young voters who favored his more progressive opponent, he’s struggled to build youth enthusiasm around a message that is more about a return to a gentler past than a vision of a bold new future.
But young voters’ attraction to big, bold ideas doesn’t always lead young voters to young candidates; in 2020, they actually favored the oldest contender, Bernie Sanders, and remained cool to millennial Pete Buttigieg. Yet Sanders’s 2020 bid failed, in part because he based his electoral strategy on a massive surge in youth turnout that didn’t materialize as much as his campaign expected. Youth support is important, but without massive turnout, it can’t deliver a win. And generational change is almost always more complicated than it appears.
Of course, medical and lifestyle advances — like the decline of smoking — have meant that people in their 60s and 70s are likely healthier and stick around longer than people the same age in earlier eras. Still, US leadership is trending old not because voters favor older leaders, but because the system protects incumbents — and because the campaign finance system makes it harder than ever to raise the money necessary to unseat a sitting leader.
It’s no secret that millennials are worse off financially than their parents were at their age (due to the coronavirus pandemic, Gen Z is likely to be similarly strapped for cash). At the same time, the infusion of corporate money into political races has made running for office exorbitantly expensive: By the early 2010s, the average House of Representatives race cost about $1.5 million, roughly double what it cost to run when boomers were first entering the political arena in the early 1980s. Even the average state legislature race cost more than $80,000.
In other words, politics got more expensive at the exact moment when the rising generation of young people were most financially strapped: If millennials couldn’t afford to buy a home or a car, how could they mount a bid for Congress? If they can’t run for Congress, how could they ever run for Senate or president?
Without a new generation of leaders breathing down their necks, the established leaders are simply sticking around and aging in place. And if America can’t build a bench of young political talent willing and able to step into the arena, there may be nobody left to replace them.
— Charlotte Alter
Charlotte Alter is a national correspondent at Time covering political campaigns and youth social movements. Her first book, The Ones We’ve Been Waiting For: How a New Generation of Leaders Will Transform America, was published in February.
There are unexpected strengths to an aging mind
Come November, we’ll have two septuagenarian candidates facing off. If they’re not geezers, they’re geezer-adjacent. Should we be worried?
A president’s schedule requires fortitude, patience, and intense concentration. A typical day includes a series of high-level meetings and events, including briefings by Cabinet members and White House staff, meetings with congressional and foreign leaders, and delivering remarks at various press events. There are official visits to important allied countries, international meetings such as the United Nations General Assembly each fall, and political events in key states. The president signs (or vetoes) legislation but is also the chief executive of the largest employer in the US, a diplomat, and commander in chief of the armed forces. It’s a grueling job physically and cognitively, and it’s natural to question whether there is an upper age limit on meeting such demands.
Looking at the health of former presidents doesn’t necessarily provide any answers. Our presidents have ranged widely in age, and age hasn’t always correlated with mental and physical fitness. George W. Bush (age 54 at inauguration, 62 when he left office) was up at 5:15 each morning and in bed by 9 pm. But Bill Clinton, one of our younger presidents at just 46 when elected, had a quadruple bypass operation on his heart just three years after leaving office. Our oldest president before Donald Trump, Ronald Reagan, who was elected at 69, was diagnosed with Alzheimer’s four years after he left office.
It is true that our brains slow down with every decade after 60, but slow isn’t necessarily bad. Our slow, deliberate cognitions tend to be more accurate than snap judgments. And although our brains shrink with age, size isn’t everything; if it were, then there would be no smart children, and people with enormous heads would be smarter than everyone else — and they aren’t.
And although the societal narrative is that we tend to lose mental ability as we age, some brain functions actually improve. For example, we see positive changes in mood and outlook, punctuated by the exceptional benefits of experience. Many older minds can intuitively synthesize a lifetime of information and make smarter decisions based on decades of learning from their mistakes. (Not every older adult, of course — we can all think of exceptions.) The aging brain changes, thanks to neuroplasticity. It changes itself, heals itself, and finds other ways to do things. Abstract reasoning can actually improve.
Oldsters aren’t as fast, perhaps, at mental calculations and recalling names, but they tend to be much better and faster at seeing the big picture
To cognitive scientists like myself, wisdom is the ability to see patterns where others don’t see them, to extract common points from prior experience and use those to make predictions about what is likely to happen next. Oldsters aren’t as fast, perhaps, at mental calculations and recalling names, but they tend to be much better and faster at seeing the big picture. And that results from the accumulated set of things we’ve seen and experienced — what we call crystallized intelligence. Naturally, the more you’ve experienced, the more of this type of intelligence you are able to tap into.
It’s also important not to focus too much on how many birthdays a person has had. Some people remain vigorous well past 80. Just look at Julia “Hurricane” Hawkins, a now 104-year-old competitive runner who took home two gold medals in the senior games last year. Or Eubie Blake, the late ragtime composer and pianist who in 1979 turned in one of his most delightful performances on Saturday Night Live at age 92. Neuroscientist Brenda Milner remains an influential researcher at age 101, and the Dalai Lama, 84, recently published his 125th book.
A big part of how well one’s mental capacities fare at any age revolves around healthy practices concerning sleep, diet, and exercise. These become particularly important after age 65 but aren’t always easy for a busy president to accomplish. Good diet and exercise help us sleep, allowing us to consolidate and strengthen memories. It’s a myth that older adults need less sleep than younger adults. One night of disrupted sleep can lead to memory difficulties for up to two weeks. I asked the Dalai Lama the key to his productivity and energy, and, without missing a beat, he said, “Nine hours of sleep every night.”
On CBS This Morning in January, I proposed that we should find a term that’s less emotionally laden than old people. I suggested we try oldsters, because it sounds like youngsters and hipsters. But 65-year-old Gayle King wasn’t having it. And so to Gayle, and the rest of the country, how’s this: Perhaps older adults should de-stigmatize and proudly take back the word geezer.
Our next president is likely to either start out as a geezer or become one in office. But instead of associating an older president with cognitive limitations, we should be looking at the science, which suggests that an aging mind might be better at making big-picture decisions, or — due to age-related increases in empathy and compassion — be skilled at bringing people together. We’ve had great presidents and not-so-great presidents, but the idea that age is correlated to their performance is simply not true. Ultimately, aging varies so much from person to person that the number of birthdays you’ve had doesn’t say much about who you are.
— Daniel J. Levitin
Daniel J. Levitin is a neuroscientist. His newest book is the New York Times bestseller, Successful Aging: A Neuroscientist Explores the Power and Potential of Our Lives.
Support Vox’s explanatory journalism


vox--2020-10-23--The real danger to birds isn’t windmills — it’s cats and Trump

President Donald Trump has a bone to pick with windmills — he says it ’ s because they kill a lot of birds .
But if it ’ s the bird population he ’ s really worried about , his true enemy is cats , which are the true enemies of the birds .
During the climate change section of Thursday ’ s final presidential debate between President Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden , the issue of clean energy came up and , eventually , the discussion turned to wind .
Biden touted electric , solar , and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ back against the president ’ s past claims that noise from windmills causes cancer ( there ’ s no evidence for this ) .
And then we were off to the races re : windmills .
Trump said the United States is energy independent , and then leaned in on windmills .
“ I know more about wind than you do .
It ’ s extremely expensive .
Kills all the birds .
It ’ s very intermittent , ” he said .
So , to back up to the birds thing .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ do kill some birds , they are not even close to the primary cause of death to the avian population .
That ’ s actually your neighborhood cat .
The US Fish and Wildlife Service estimates that cats are responsible for the deaths of 2.4 billion birds each year .
After that , collisions with building glass and vehicles are to blame for about another 800 million deaths .
By comparison , about 230,000 birds are killed after colliding with a wind turbine every year .
If the true concern is saving the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to focus not on windmills but on advice for keeping one ’ s cat from killing them : namely , keep your cat inside , and plant a tree or bush or something in your yard .
Or put some sort of paint or decals on your window so birds know the glass is there .
The declining bird population is bad , but the problem isn ’ t windmills The silliness of the windmill claims aside , the declining bird population is a real problem .
As Vox ’ s Brian Resnick @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that North America has lost 3 billion birds since 1970 , though it differs across species .
He explained why it matters : The Fish & Wildlife Service notes that millions of acres of habitats for birds are lost each year because of development , agriculture , and forestry practices , and a big part of helping the population would have to entail protecting and restoring bird habitats .
It also points out that climate change — which was supposed to be the subject of the final section of the debate — is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ what is Trump ’ s problem with windmills ?
It ’ s impossible to get into his head , though he once filed a lawsuit in Scotland to try to block a wind farm from being built , which would have been visible from his golf course .
He called the turbines a “ horrible idea ” and “ ugly ” and complained , “ I want to see the ocean , not windmills.
” It ’ s also worth noting that back in January , the Trump administration scrapped penalties for industries @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and gas companies , electric companies , and other businesses that accidentally kill birds can do so without fear of prosecution or fines .
A federal judge overturned the rule this summer , and the issue could eventually wind up in the Supreme Court — one where Trump is about to put in place a 6-3 conservative majority .
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President Donald Trump has a bone to pick with windmills — he says it’s because they kill a lot of birds. But if it’s the bird population he’s really worried about, his true enemy is cats, which are the true enemies of the birds.
During the climate change section of Thursday’s final presidential debate between President Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden, the issue of clean energy came up and, eventually, the discussion turned to wind. Biden touted electric, solar, and wind energy as fast-growing industries and pushed back against the president’s past claims that noise from windmills causes cancer (there’s no evidence for this). And then we were off to the races re: windmills.
Trump said the United States is energy independent, and then leaned in on windmills. “I know more about wind than you do. It’s extremely expensive. Kills all the birds. It’s very intermittent,” he said.
So, to back up to the birds thing. While it is true that wind turbines do kill some birds, they are not even close to the primary cause of death to the avian population. That’s actually your neighborhood cat. The US Fish and Wildlife Service estimates that cats are responsible for the deaths of 2.4 billion birds each year. After that, collisions with building glass and vehicles are to blame for about another 800 million deaths. By comparison, about 230,000 birds are killed after colliding with a wind turbine every year.
i know why, it's because of three things that I like: cats, windows, and wind turbines, two out of the three are dangerous for birds pic.twitter.com/pQlw33XMNa — Costa Samaras (@CostaSamaras) October 23, 2020
If the true concern is saving the birds, then it would be good to focus not on windmills but on advice for keeping one’s cat from killing them: namely, keep your cat inside, and plant a tree or bush or something in your yard. Or put some sort of paint or decals on your window so birds know the glass is there.
The declining bird population is bad, but the problem isn’t windmills
The silliness of the windmill claims aside, the declining bird population is a real problem. As Vox’s Brian Resnick wrote in 2019, one study estimates that North America has lost 3 billion birds since 1970, though it differs across species. He explained why it matters:
Birds play an important role in ecosystems: They eat insects, they disperse seeds, and they’re food for other animals as well. They’re also important for sustainable agriculture by controlling pests (i.e. eating them) and reducing the need for chemical insecticides.
The Fish & Wildlife Service notes that millions of acres of habitats for birds are lost each year because of development, agriculture, and forestry practices, and a big part of helping the population would have to entail protecting and restoring bird habitats. It also points out that climate change — which was supposed to be the subject of the final section of the debate — is also contributing to the issue.
So what is Trump’s problem with windmills? It’s impossible to get into his head, though he once filed a lawsuit in Scotland to try to block a wind farm from being built, which would have been visible from his golf course. He called the turbines a “horrible idea” and “ugly” and complained, “I want to see the ocean, not windmills.”
It’s also worth noting that back in January, the Trump administration scrapped penalties for industries that kill migratory birds — meaning oil and gas companies, electric companies, and other businesses that accidentally kill birds can do so without fear of prosecution or fines. A federal judge overturned the rule this summer, and the issue could eventually wind up in the Supreme Court — one where Trump is about to put in place a 6-3 conservative majority.


vox--2020-10-23--Manifesting, the latest New Age internet wellness craze, explained

When the Australian television producer Rhonda Byrne published The Secret in 2006 , book critics responded , for the most part , by laughing at it .
This wasn ’ t necessarily unwarranted ; Byrne ’ s assertion that positive things will happen to you if only you think enough positive thoughts is crammed with unscientific New Ageisms that feel like truth no matter how untrue they actually are .
Her central ideas fall apart with the tiniest prodding : People don ’ t die of cancer because they fail to manifest enough positive thoughts to ward off the disease @ @ @ @ @ @ @ was Byrne who had the last laugh : The Secret has sold 30 million copies since then , and is among the most successful self-help books of all time .
It doesn ’ t take much critical thought to understand why The Secret and books like it — The Power of Positive Thinking , The Science of Getting Rich , Think and Grow Rich — are so popular : They offer a portrait of the world that is extraordinarily alluring , one where the only obstacle to achieving every dream we might have @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , as though pretending like we ’ re already gorgeous , successful , deliriously happy human beings will make it real .
Which is why , more than a decade after The Secret , a new generation is discovering its central thesis , except this time on social media .
On TikTok , teenagers share stories about how “ scripting , ” or repeatedly writing down a wish , caused a crush to finally text them back .
On YouTube , vloggers lead tutorials on how to properly manifest your dream future .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ $ 20,000 will soon land in your hands , and all you have to do is comment “ YES.
” On Twitter , stans will , ironically or not , attempt to manifest the release of a new Lorde album .
“ Manifesting , ” or the practice of thinking aspirational thoughts with the purpose of making them real , has never been more popular : From late March to mid-July , Google searches for the term have skyrocketed 669 percent ; “ shut up I ’ m manifesting ” is among the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ pre-pandemic , interest had been gradually rising since around 2017 , alongside burgeoning conversations around wellness and self-care .
At the same time as stereotypically woo-woo practices involving crystals , essential oils , tarot , and energy wavelengths were reaching the general consciousness , professionals and influencers touting these methods were making bank ( Goop ’ s Gwyneth Paltrow , for instance ) .
One of them even made it to the presidential primary debate stage .
In a moment where all any average citizen can really do , ultimately , is hope @ @ @ @ @ @ @ we ’ re all currently living in , it ’ s no wonder the practice of manifesting has exploded .
Like so many other quarantine trends — homemaking , bread baking , tie-dyeing , or learning TikTok dances — manifesting feels like a way to accomplish something we have control over in a time when we ’ re mostly powerless to effect any real change .
There is also a lower barrier to entry than almost any other activity : All you need are your dreams , and to think about how nice @ @ @ @ @ @ @ true .
What is manifesting and why do people do it ?
The act of manifesting either has a ton of complicated rules or is whatever you want it to be , depending on who you ask .
One popular TikTok claims that by simply coming across it , you ’ ve already manifested the video , and that in fact you ’ ve unconsciously manifested everything that has ever happened in your life ( she quickly clarified in the comments that “ nobody manifests their trauma ” ) .
Some say that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ way to manifest while others claim it won ’ t work if you don ’ t “ connect to the spiritual world ” first .
“ Scripting ” can either mean writing down your desire or writing down your desire precisely 33 times for three days , and then finishing it with “ all this manifests and better , ” just in case the universe decides to send even more than what you asked for .
Manifesting can also be surprisingly mathematical .
There are special numbers associated with it — 1111 and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ from the universe — as well as special sound frequencies for manifesting specific wants ( 528 hertz is the “ love frequency ” ) .
There are manifesting-adjacent emoji ( the Nazar Amulet , which in many cultures ’ folklore is believed to ward off the evil eye , is a favorite ) and guides on how to create your own sigils , a personal motif often used in witchcraft .
The whole thing can feel vaguely Christian at times ( the angels , for one ) , and at others be deemed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Like many New Age-y practices , manifesting comes with its fair share of paradoxes , where if you think about it too hard , none of it makes any sense .
And yet its ideas have stood the test of time : The law of attraction , the belief that all thoughts eventually become things , and if you think positively , positive things will come to you , has existed since the New Thought spiritual movement of the 19th century .
New Thought popularized terms like “ creative visualization ” and spiritual @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ( and frankly , dangerous ) theory that illness is created in the mind .
Roughly six in 10 American adults , regardless of whether they describe themselves as religious or not , believe in at least one belief from the New Age movement of the ’ 60s and ’ 70s , such as reincarnation , astrology , psychics , and spiritual energy in objects , according to a 2018 Pew Research study , with women being more likely than men to say they believe .
Witchcraft , for example , has also @ @ @ @ @ @ @ age , extending beyond the boundaries of neo-pagan Wicca and becoming more open to individual interpretations and practices .
For better or for worse , it ’ s also become more mainstream — earlier this summer , witches on TikTok circulated a rumor that “ baby ” or inexperienced witches were casting hexes on the moon — and corporatized : Urban Outfitters and Sephora and other retail chains have received backlash in recent years for attempting to sell one-size-fits-all occult products that appropriate spiritual beliefs from indigenous cultures .
The mainstreaming of New @ @ @ @ @ @ @ boon for social-media-savvy self-help gurus and spiritual teachers , to whom followers flock for guidance on manifesting , crystals , reiki , or other alternatives to traditional psychotherapy .
While many simply enjoy seeing calming or empowering messages in their feeds , others will spend hundreds or more on coaching sessions meant to provide some kind of awakening or inner peace .
Taylor Simpson is one such coach , although there is a more specific name for what she does .
“ Priestess of Light ” is the name listed on her Instagram @ @ @ @ @ @ @ followers .
Simpson has taught what she calls “ divine feminine mystic manifestation ” to around 1,800 people through courses ( $ 79/month ) and “ masterclasses ” ( $ 999 ) that aim to help women attract money , love , and happiness .
A quick scroll through her Instagram and website will reveal rather esoteric spiritual terms that I asked her to define .
A lightworker , she says , is “ someone who is so fiercely aligned with their truth came here on earth to be able to serve.
” @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 3D to 5D , ” which could be compared to The Matrix ’ s concepts of the red and blue pills .
“ 3D is polarity .
It ’ s this or that , right or wrong , up or down , bad , good , ” she explained .
“ 4D is where people wake up .
We shift into 5D , where there ’ s just love .
There is no right or wrong .
It ’ s neutrality.
” Similarly , there ’ s “ awake ” versus “ asleep @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the nine to five , the white picket fence .
They think that their surroundings dictate them .
They ’ re always the victim .
They don ’ t take responsibility.
” There is much talk of frequencies ( lower frequencies are made of guilt and shame , higher ones of love and peace ) .
Her clients often come for a more material purpose : They want to manifest money , or perhaps a soulmate .
Simpson ’ s process is not dissimilar from therapy , at least superficially : She tries @ @ @ @ @ @ @ clients want what they want , and why they feel unworthy of getting it .
The difference , obviously , is that Simpson believes that once her clients are fully aligned within themselves , they will be able to manifest anything they want .
To explain to me how manifestation actually works , she used the stereotype of the “ crazy ex-girlfriend , ” wherein a woman ’ s neediness for love ends up pushing men away ; meanwhile , women who play it cool will unconsciously draw their ex-boyfriends back in .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ but I wondered whether the same analogy could be used for , say , someone who really wants a fancy car , which has no capacity for emotion and is unmoved by psychological tricks .
“ It ’ s the frequency that the car is in that you ’ re in , ” she says .
“ While it doesn ’ t have feelings , it is something that your future self that already has the car who ’ s done the inner work to get there has .
If you embody the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , eventually , you ’ re going to be in a situation where you have the money or the opportunity to meet your future self in that car.
” It is fine , of course , to believe this .
But there are limits .
One concern psychologists have with ideas like manifesting is that it doesn ’ t take into account people whose thoughts can be inherently negative — those with anxiety , depression , or other mental health diagnoses .
Overestimating the power of one ’ s thoughts , which is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ disorders , “ could be very dangerous to people who already have anxiety disorders , but potentially , it might even be enough to start those symptoms happening in someone who originally doesn ’ t , ” the cognitive neuroscientist Rhiannon Jones told Vice .
Someone with depression who believes that no one truly loves them , for instance , could theoretically think that just because this thought entered their brain , that makes it true .
Even if manifesting doesn ’ t present a serious mental health problem , there ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ will not actually change your material circumstances , and may in fact do the opposite .
There are decades of scientific research and dozens of studies proving that , often , positive thinking actually makes us more complacent and therefore less likely to muster the effort to achieve our goals .
“ The more positively people dream about the future , the better they feel at the moment .
But you need energy to implement your wishes.
” The best record of these is in the work of German academic and NYU psychology @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Rethinking Positive Thinking : Inside the New Science of Motivation explains why advice espoused in books like The Secret is demonstrably false .
Along with her book , Oettingen also launched a website and free app called WOOP , an acronym for “ wish , outcome , obstacle , plan , ” which is sort of like manifesting , but with a workable strategy to bring your goals to fruition .
“ The more positively people dream about the future , the better they feel at the moment , ” she told me @ @ @ @ @ @ @ pressure goes down .
But you need the energy to implement your wishes , and over time , they actually get more depressed , partly because they ’ re putting in less effort and have less success.
” While optimism can be extremely helpful in situations that are out of a person ’ s control — living during a pandemic , for instance — those who focus solely on a dream outcome in their own lives , such as a new job or finding a soul mate , are perhaps setting themselves up @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the case for a technique she calls mental contrasting , where in addition to focusing on a desire , you focus equally on the obstacles in your way .
One of her studies cited in the book involved a group of third graders who received a candy prize if they completed a language assignment .
Some were told to interrogate their own behaviors that might prevent them from finishing the task , while others were told only to fantasize on the prize .
The first group did better .
“ Once you understand @ @ @ @ @ @ @ then find a way to overcome the obstacle , ” Oettingen explains .
“ Or , if the obstacle is insurmountable , then you can adjust your wish , postpone it , or actively let it go .
You ’ ll have a good conscience because you know it ’ s just not possible and you can better invest your energy in a different , more promising project.
” It ’ s not that our desires don ’ t matter .
“ We need to take these positive fantasies and daydreams really seriously @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , ” she adds .
“ To make our fantasies come true and satisfy our needs , though , we have to garner our energy.
” Maybe we ’ re all just taking this too seriously Perhaps whether manifesting works or not isn ’ t the point .
If there ’ s one recent cultural trend that most resembles manifesting , it ’ s astrology , which in the mid-2010s exploded into the mainstream via social media , memes , and broader interpretations of what wellness could be .
Yet as much as @ @ @ @ @ @ @ rising signs and natal charts , that didn ’ t mean that everyone who loved talking about it really believed it all that much .
In 2017 , near the height of the internet ’ s astrology fervor , historian Nicholas Campion wrote that the question of who actually “ believes ” in astrology is impossible to answer , one that ’ s maybe not even worth asking .
“ When I asked the astrologers who didn ’ t ‘ believe ’ for their reasons , they replied that astrology is no more @ @ @ @ @ @ @ music : it is real , so has nothing to do with belief , ” he writes .
“ Or to put it another way , people only believe in things which don ’ t exist .
Which is why public surveys on belief can come up with misleading results.
” Here ’ s a recent example : On TikTok a few months ago I came across a viral video of a group of teenagers at a sleepover in a prayer circle , chanting the lyrics to the One Direction song “ History @ @ @ @ @ @ @ member around a candle .
The caption : “ manifesting for some good one direction content.
” I asked its creator , 17-year-old Mercades Watt , whether the video was made in earnest , although I was pretty sure I already knew the answer .
“ Some people took it seriously and I was like , ‘ No , guys , ’ ” she laughs .
“ This is a joke .
I ’ m chanting lyrics to a song.
” Mercades says she heard about manifesting about six months ago , on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ know what it meant at first and everyone just kept saying it .
Some of them would be manifesting something not as serious , and I ’ d be like , ‘ Okay , that ’ s a joke.
’ For [ others ] , they ’ re manifesting a better year or something.
” As an overthinker , she feels like if she seriously attempted to manifest something it would end up backfiring .
But she also doesn ’ t necessarily see the trend sticking around for all that long .
“ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ‘ Oh , I ’ m on witch TikTok now .
I always do these little manifesting things .
I wrote down this person ’ s name in a notebook , ’ she says .
“ I ’ m like , ‘ Okay , good for you.
’ I ’ d say they ’ re probably just going to do it for the rest of the year and then forget about it.
” Who does it really harm , after all , if someone posts a manifesting TikTok of a city skyline , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , and thousands of people comment “ claiming this !
” ?
No one , obviously , besides the possibility that all of those people will assume that by commenting on the video , they don ’ t have to exert any effort to actually move there .
I prefer to assume people are smarter than that , though .
Humans are inherently skeptical , and even the most naive among us understand that a person who sits alone in their home doing nothing all day will not miraculously become a millionaire .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ easy as contemplating one ’ s zodiac sign , with or without several degrees of irony .
It ’ s what one might consider praying , if praying were a cool thing to do on social media .
Fewer Americans consider themselves religious , and like many new-wellness practices , the interest in manifesting likely blossomed out of an absence of needs once filled by organized religion .
That psychotherapy may be out of reach for more people than ever is also likely a factor .
The real danger , I would argue @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a belief with no real basis and despite scientific evidence to the contrary .
We have seen what happens when people rely on their feelings over factual information .
Researchers at Ohio State University found that those who trust their “ gut ” are more likely to believe in fake news and conspiracy theories , and tend to believe that all facts are politically biased .
We have also seen what happens when these beliefs become commercialized : Both QAnon and astrology , for instance , are bona fide industries ; retail platforms @ @ @ @ @ @ @ they get banned ) , and the astrology business is worth an estimated $ 2.1 billion .
It ’ s only a matter of time before we see the next Co-Star but for manifesting : a cool-girl app aimed at Gen Z women with wry advice on how to think your way to a new job .
I asked Oettingen , the psychologist , whether even she could understand the argument that if manifesting makes a confused teen girl or a hopeless divorcée feel good in the moment then it ’ s worth @ @ @ @ @ @ @ as she clearly understands that by writing it down 100 times , it will not happen and will likely sap her energy and time , ” she says with a laugh .
“ It ’ s a happy dream.
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Our mission has never been more vital @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to empower you through understanding .
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When the Australian television producer Rhonda Byrne published The Secret in 2006, book critics responded, for the most part, by laughing at it. This wasn’t necessarily unwarranted; Byrne’s assertion that positive things will happen to you if only you think enough positive thoughts is crammed with unscientific New Ageisms that feel like truth no matter how untrue they actually are.
Her central ideas fall apart with the tiniest prodding: People don’t die of cancer because they fail to manifest enough positive thoughts to ward off the disease, for instance. Besides, it was Byrne who had the last laugh: The Secret has sold 30 million copies since then, and is among the most successful self-help books of all time.
It doesn’t take much critical thought to understand why The Secret and books like it — The Power of Positive Thinking, The Science of Getting Rich, Think and Grow Rich — are so popular: They offer a portrait of the world that is extraordinarily alluring, one where the only obstacle to achieving every dream we might have is to focus very hard on it, as though pretending like we’re already gorgeous, successful, deliriously happy human beings will make it real.
Which is why, more than a decade after The Secret, a new generation is discovering its central thesis, except this time on social media. On TikTok, teenagers share stories about how “scripting,” or repeatedly writing down a wish, caused a crush to finally text them back. On YouTube, vloggers lead tutorials on how to properly manifest your dream future. On Instagram, someone will write that $20,000 will soon land in your hands, and all you have to do is comment “YES.” On Twitter, stans will, ironically or not, attempt to manifest the release of a new Lorde album.
“Manifesting,” or the practice of thinking aspirational thoughts with the purpose of making them real, has never been more popular: From late March to mid-July, Google searches for the term have skyrocketed 669 percent; “shut up I’m manifesting” is among the defining memes of 2020. Yet even pre-pandemic, interest had been gradually rising since around 2017, alongside burgeoning conversations around wellness and self-care. At the same time as stereotypically woo-woo practices involving crystals, essential oils, tarot, and energy wavelengths were reaching the general consciousness, professionals and influencers touting these methods were making bank (Goop’s Gwyneth Paltrow, for instance). One of them even made it to the presidential primary debate stage.
In a moment where all any average citizen can really do, ultimately, is hope for a better future than the one we’re all currently living in, it’s no wonder the practice of manifesting has exploded. Like so many other quarantine trends — homemaking, bread baking, tie-dyeing, or learning TikTok dances — manifesting feels like a way to accomplish something we have control over in a time when we’re mostly powerless to effect any real change. There is also a lower barrier to entry than almost any other activity: All you need are your dreams, and to think about how nice it would be if they all came true.
What is manifesting and why do people do it?
The act of manifesting either has a ton of complicated rules or is whatever you want it to be, depending on who you ask. One popular TikTok claims that by simply coming across it, you’ve already manifested the video, and that in fact you’ve unconsciously manifested everything that has ever happened in your life (she quickly clarified in the comments that “nobody manifests their trauma”). Some say that there’s no “right” way to manifest while others claim it won’t work if you don’t “connect to the spiritual world” first. “Scripting” can either mean writing down your desire or writing down your desire precisely 33 times for three days, and then finishing it with “all this manifests and better,” just in case the universe decides to send even more than what you asked for.
Manifesting can also be surprisingly mathematical. There are special numbers associated with it — 1111 and 444 are “angel numbers” sent from the universe — as well as special sound frequencies for manifesting specific wants (528 hertz is the “love frequency”). There are manifesting-adjacent emoji (the Nazar Amulet, which in many cultures’ folklore is believed to ward off the evil eye, is a favorite) and guides on how to create your own sigils, a personal motif often used in witchcraft. The whole thing can feel vaguely Christian at times (the angels, for one), and at others be deemed demonic (e.g. witchcraft).
Like many New Age-y practices, manifesting comes with its fair share of paradoxes, where if you think about it too hard, none of it makes any sense. And yet its ideas have stood the test of time: The law of attraction, the belief that all thoughts eventually become things, and if you think positively, positive things will come to you, has existed since the New Thought spiritual movement of the 19th century.
New Thought popularized terms like “creative visualization” and spiritual healing, as well as the controversial (and frankly, dangerous) theory that illness is created in the mind. Roughly six in 10 American adults, regardless of whether they describe themselves as religious or not, believe in at least one belief from the New Age movement of the ’60s and ’70s, such as reincarnation, astrology, psychics, and spiritual energy in objects, according to a 2018 Pew Research study, with women being more likely than men to say they believe.
Witchcraft, for example, has also enjoyed a renaissance in the social media age, extending beyond the boundaries of neo-pagan Wicca and becoming more open to individual interpretations and practices. For better or for worse, it’s also become more mainstream — earlier this summer, witches on TikTok circulated a rumor that “baby” or inexperienced witches were casting hexes on the moon — and corporatized: Urban Outfitters and Sephora and other retail chains have received backlash in recent years for attempting to sell one-size-fits-all occult products that appropriate spiritual beliefs from indigenous cultures.
The mainstreaming of New Age and pagan beliefs has been a boon for social-media-savvy self-help gurus and spiritual teachers, to whom followers flock for guidance on manifesting, crystals, reiki, or other alternatives to traditional psychotherapy. While many simply enjoy seeing calming or empowering messages in their feeds, others will spend hundreds or more on coaching sessions meant to provide some kind of awakening or inner peace.
Taylor Simpson is one such coach, although there is a more specific name for what she does. “Priestess of Light” is the name listed on her Instagram, where she has more than 100,000 followers. Simpson has taught what she calls “divine feminine mystic manifestation” to around 1,800 people through courses ($79/month) and “masterclasses” ($999) that aim to help women attract money, love, and happiness.
A quick scroll through her Instagram and website will reveal rather esoteric spiritual terms that I asked her to define. A lightworker, she says, is “someone who is so fiercely aligned with their truth came here on earth to be able to serve.” There are allusions to moving from “3D to 5D,” which could be compared to The Matrix’s concepts of the red and blue pills. “3D is polarity. It’s this or that, right or wrong, up or down, bad, good,” she explained. “4D is where people wake up. We shift into 5D, where there’s just love. There is no right or wrong. It’s neutrality.”
Similarly, there’s “awake” versus “asleep”: Asleep people are “doing the nine to five, the white picket fence. They think that their surroundings dictate them. They’re always the victim. They don’t take responsibility.” There is much talk of frequencies (lower frequencies are made of guilt and shame, higher ones of love and peace).
Her clients often come for a more material purpose: They want to manifest money, or perhaps a soulmate. Simpson’s process is not dissimilar from therapy, at least superficially: She tries to untangle why, exactly, her clients want what they want, and why they feel unworthy of getting it. The difference, obviously, is that Simpson believes that once her clients are fully aligned within themselves, they will be able to manifest anything they want.
To explain to me how manifestation actually works, she used the stereotype of the “crazy ex-girlfriend,” wherein a woman’s neediness for love ends up pushing men away; meanwhile, women who play it cool will unconsciously draw their ex-boyfriends back in. On some level this makes sense, but I wondered whether the same analogy could be used for, say, someone who really wants a fancy car, which has no capacity for emotion and is unmoved by psychological tricks.
“It’s the frequency that the car is in that you’re in,” she says. “While it doesn’t have feelings, it is something that your future self that already has the car who’s done the inner work to get there has. If you embody the version of you that has that car, eventually, you’re going to be in a situation where you have the money or the opportunity to meet your future self in that car.”
No, manifesting doesn’t actually work
It is fine, of course, to believe this. But there are limits. One concern psychologists have with ideas like manifesting is that it doesn’t take into account people whose thoughts can be inherently negative — those with anxiety, depression, or other mental health diagnoses.
Overestimating the power of one’s thoughts, which is a symptom of OCD among many other disorders, “could be very dangerous to people who already have anxiety disorders, but potentially, it might even be enough to start those symptoms happening in someone who originally doesn’t,” the cognitive neuroscientist Rhiannon Jones told Vice. Someone with depression who believes that no one truly loves them, for instance, could theoretically think that just because this thought entered their brain, that makes it true.
Even if manifesting doesn’t present a serious mental health problem, there’s also the fact that positive thinking alone will not actually change your material circumstances, and may in fact do the opposite. There are decades of scientific research and dozens of studies proving that, often, positive thinking actually makes us more complacent and therefore less likely to muster the effort to achieve our goals.
“The more positively people dream about the future, the better they feel at the moment. But you need energy to implement your wishes.”
The best record of these is in the work of German academic and NYU psychology professor Gabriele Oettingen, whose 2015 book Rethinking Positive Thinking: Inside the New Science of Motivation explains why advice espoused in books like The Secret is demonstrably false. Along with her book, Oettingen also launched a website and free app called WOOP, an acronym for “wish, outcome, obstacle, plan,” which is sort of like manifesting, but with a workable strategy to bring your goals to fruition.
“The more positively people dream about the future, the better they feel at the moment,” she told me. “People relax and their blood pressure goes down. But you need the energy to implement your wishes, and over time, they actually get more depressed, partly because they’re putting in less effort and have less success.” While optimism can be extremely helpful in situations that are out of a person’s control — living during a pandemic, for instance — those who focus solely on a dream outcome in their own lives, such as a new job or finding a soul mate, are perhaps setting themselves up for failure.
Instead, Oettingen makes the case for a technique she calls mental contrasting, where in addition to focusing on a desire, you focus equally on the obstacles in your way. One of her studies cited in the book involved a group of third graders who received a candy prize if they completed a language assignment. Some were told to interrogate their own behaviors that might prevent them from finishing the task, while others were told only to fantasize on the prize. The first group did better.
“Once you understand what the obstacle is, you can then find a way to overcome the obstacle,” Oettingen explains. “Or, if the obstacle is insurmountable, then you can adjust your wish, postpone it, or actively let it go. You’ll have a good conscience because you know it’s just not possible and you can better invest your energy in a different, more promising project.”
It’s not that our desires don’t matter. “We need to take these positive fantasies and daydreams really seriously because they signal where we have needs,” she adds. “To make our fantasies come true and satisfy our needs, though, we have to garner our energy.”
Maybe we’re all just taking this too seriously
Perhaps whether manifesting works or not isn’t the point. If there’s one recent cultural trend that most resembles manifesting, it’s astrology, which in the mid-2010s exploded into the mainstream via social media, memes, and broader interpretations of what wellness could be. Yet as much as the discourse reflected a sudden interest in rising signs and natal charts, that didn’t mean that everyone who loved talking about it really believed it all that much.
In 2017, near the height of the internet’s astrology fervor, historian Nicholas Campion wrote that the question of who actually “believes” in astrology is impossible to answer, one that’s maybe not even worth asking. “When I asked the astrologers who didn’t ‘believe’ for their reasons, they replied that astrology is no more a matter of belief than television or music: it is real, so has nothing to do with belief,” he writes. “Or to put it another way, people only believe in things which don’t exist. Which is why public surveys on belief can come up with misleading results.”
Here’s a recent example: On TikTok a few months ago I came across a viral video of a group of teenagers at a sleepover in a prayer circle, chanting the lyrics to the One Direction song “History” with a doll version of each member around a candle. The caption: “manifesting for some good one direction content.” I asked its creator, 17-year-old Mercades Watt, whether the video was made in earnest, although I was pretty sure I already knew the answer. “Some people took it seriously and I was like, ‘No, guys,’” she laughs. “This is a joke. I’m chanting lyrics to a song.”
Mercades says she heard about manifesting about six months ago, on TikTok. “I didn’t know what it meant at first and everyone just kept saying it. Some of them would be manifesting something not as serious, and I’d be like, ‘Okay, that’s a joke.’ For [others], they’re manifesting a better year or something.”
As an overthinker, she feels like if she seriously attempted to manifest something it would end up backfiring. But she also doesn’t necessarily see the trend sticking around for all that long. “Some of my friends are like, ‘Oh, I’m on witch TikTok now. I always do these little manifesting things. I wrote down this person’s name in a notebook,’ she says. “I’m like, ‘Okay, good for you.’ I’d say they’re probably just going to do it for the rest of the year and then forget about it.”
Who does it really harm, after all, if someone posts a manifesting TikTok of a city skyline, envisioning a glamorous life in New York, and thousands of people comment “claiming this!”? No one, obviously, besides the possibility that all of those people will assume that by commenting on the video, they don’t have to exert any effort to actually move there.
I prefer to assume people are smarter than that, though. Humans are inherently skeptical, and even the most naive among us understand that a person who sits alone in their home doing nothing all day will not miraculously become a millionaire. Manifesting is attractive because it is as easy as contemplating one’s zodiac sign, with or without several degrees of irony. It’s what one might consider praying, if praying were a cool thing to do on social media.
Fewer Americans consider themselves religious, and like many new-wellness practices, the interest in manifesting likely blossomed out of an absence of needs once filled by organized religion. That psychotherapy may be out of reach for more people than ever is also likely a factor.
let us all now manifest and say
lorde
— elif | ia era (@amoortentia) August 2, 2020
The real danger, I would argue, is our ability to latch onto a belief with no real basis and despite scientific evidence to the contrary. We have seen what happens when people rely on their feelings over factual information.
Researchers at Ohio State University found that those who trust their “gut” are more likely to believe in fake news and conspiracy theories, and tend to believe that all facts are politically biased. We have also seen what happens when these beliefs become commercialized: Both QAnon and astrology, for instance, are bona fide industries; retail platforms are littered with Q merch (until they get banned), and the astrology business is worth an estimated $2.1 billion. It’s only a matter of time before we see the next Co-Star but for manifesting: a cool-girl app aimed at Gen Z women with wry advice on how to think your way to a new job.
I asked Oettingen, the psychologist, whether even she could understand the argument that if manifesting makes a confused teen girl or a hopeless divorcée feel good in the moment then it’s worth celebrating. “Yes, as long as she clearly understands that by writing it down 100 times, it will not happen and will likely sap her energy and time,” she says with a laugh. “It’s a happy dream.”


vox--2020-10-23--Every small-business owner has to be a public health expert now. This mechanic is no different.

Michael Wright sprays down every set of car keys that changes hands in Los Angeles ’ s RM Automotives with disinfectant .
He installed germ-catching plastic panes in front of the cash register , keeps disposable gloves behind the counter , and purifies the store with a mist of sanitizer every couple of hours .
When a customer arrives with a yellow engine light , he and his team wipe down the interior of the car from front to back before popping the hood .
These are the protocols of an average auto repair shop during the Covid-19 pandemic .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ on cars for decades .
Now he ’ s also required to be a public health expert .
The state of California categorized auto shops as essential businesses in March , and throughout the pandemic , Wright never closed his doors .
He hosted weekly meetings with his employees to go over the social distancing measures that RM Automotives was implementing , and ordered loads of cleaning supplies to keep the location eternally fumigated .
But for the most part , the early days of the coronavirus were marked by the doldrums .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ nobody needed to fix their car .
Los Angeles was disconcertingly still .
The staff worked on the few cars that remained in the shop from the Before Times , and waited to see what the world had in store .
By summer , says Wright , RM Automotives is back to capacity .
People no longer fear leaving their houses ; they have places to go , and some of them need to replace their air filter .
It ’ s a strange respite for the employees .
They are happy that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ longer in question , but the threat of a second wave looms on the horizon .
Who knows what may happen if we return to phase one lockdowns ?
California isn ’ t out of the woods yet .
Wright and I spoke about that , as well the difficulties of sourcing hand sanitizer in March , and what it was like to fix up the cars of doctors and nurses in the middle of the crisis .
When did the pandemic begin to affect your business ?
It was on March 12 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ stay-at-home order in Los Angeles .
The next day things got really quiet , and the following week the streets were super empty .
There was nobody making phone calls , nobody driving , nobody doing anything .
That ’ s when we noticed a huge dropoff .
Were you still going into work during that time ?
I kept the business open this whole time .
The whole month of March and April we did about 50 percent of business .
I was trying to ride it out , and I started @ @ @ @ @ @ @ off to stay afloat .
Then we started to see the protocols for essential businesses , and auto repair shops were going to be able to stick around .
After that , my focus went to keeping customers and employees safe .
What was that like for you emotionally , to know that the future of your business was in flux ?
It ’ s an uneasy feeling .
You ’ re used to a certain number of clients , seeing their faces everyday .
And all of a sudden , everything stops @ @ @ @ @ @ @ busy area , so seeing the streets go dead , it was pretty scary .
Has business rebounded since then ?
April and May were terrible .
June , July , and August have been pretty much back to normal .
I think people delayed a lot of the more minor services they needed .
The only people I serviced in spring were nurses and first responder-type people .
Because they were the only people still working .
And when they came in , it was always an emergency — their battery died @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that make you feel like you were aiding the pandemic response , considering how many first responders you were helping ?
Absolutely .
I was so focused on trying to keep the business going , to take care of my customers and my employees , when it was really tough for everyone .
Did you always think the business was going to pull through , or did you ever have any doubts ?
I always thought it would .
I was in front of it pretty quick .
I knew it would pull @ @ @ @ @ @ @ businesses wouldn ’ t .
If it had gone past the first couple months , then I would ’ ve gotten nervous .
But by the summer , and things came back to normal , I felt pretty good about it .
I imagine you guys had to stock up on hand sanitizers and other cleaning supplies during the spring .
How challenging was it to source that stuff ?
I belong to a trade organization , the Automotive Service Councils of California , that set me up with a company that was @ @ @ @ @ @ @ couldn ’ t find that anywhere .
I was scrambling , because normal channels like the grocery stores didn ’ t have anything .
That trade organization gave me some other stuff I put in a spray bottle to hit customer ’ s keys , and everything else around the store .
What were some of the challenges unique to auto shops , that other stores might not have needed to think about as much ?
The thing that we ’ re still thinking about today is how at risk we are to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ We have to think about sanitation before we start working on a car and afterward .
We were making sure that every car that comes in is cleaned , and that it ’ s cleaned after we ’ re done .
There ’ s an added expense to that , too .
I ’ ve gone through cleaners , sanitizers , and gloves .
I bought acrylic plastic barriers for where we have conversations with the customers .
We do all of the cleaning ourselves .
It ’ s just part of the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ were you given from the California government on how to keep yourselves safe while remaining open ?
I ’ d read the media , I ’ d watch the press conferences , but there wasn ’ t much that was set in stone .
I went to the City of LA website , and I got information there on how to proceed with business in the way that they wanted it done .
But I took the initiative to implement all of those measures on my own , because I didn ’ t @ @ @ @ @ @ @ wasn ’ t laid out as clear as I thought it could be .
There was information from third-party sources that I just kinda went with .
It could ’ ve been more organized .
What sort of questions were your workers asking you ?
I had weekly meetings where I ’ d sit down and say , “ This is how we ’ re going to do it.
” I wanted to get in front of it as best I could , and I never had any employees who were especially concerned @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that their health was the top priority , before anything else .
Nobody ever came to me and said , “ I don ’ t feel comfortable with this or that.
” I tried to make it as easy as I could for them .
Some auto shops are offering services where the client doesn ’ t even leave the car while their oil gets changed .
Have you done anything like that ?
We ’ ve had a lot of people show up where they park the car outside and leave their @ @ @ @ @ @ @ home with a friend that came with them .
Then I call them on the phone and tell them the repairs they need .
We get authorization , they pay over the phone , and we do the work .
We also provided pickup-and-dropoff services , because a lot of people didn ’ t want to leave their house .
So , they didn ’ t have contact with anyone outside of their bubble .
There ’ s still a lot of worry about a potential second wave , and a return to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that ?
I do think about that .
If there ’ s a new flood of cases and we ’ re back to where we were in April and May , that ’ s a concern .
Things are going good right now .
I ’ m keeping my name out there and getting new customers , we ’ re doing our best .
But even for the protocols we have right now to keep the cars safe and the employees safe , how much longer are we going to do that for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ I guess .
Help keep Vox free for all Millions turn to Vox each month to understand what ’ s happening in the news , from the coronavirus crisis to a racial reckoning to what is , quite possibly , the most consequential presidential election of our lifetimes .
Our mission has never been more vital than it is in this moment : to empower you through understanding .
But our distinctive brand of explanatory journalism takes resources .
Even when the economy and the news advertising market recovers , your support will @ @ @ @ @ @ @ resource-intensive work .
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Michael Wright sprays down every set of car keys that changes hands in Los Angeles’s RM Automotives with disinfectant. He installed germ-catching plastic panes in front of the cash register, keeps disposable gloves behind the counter, and purifies the store with a mist of sanitizer every couple of hours. When a customer arrives with a yellow engine light, he and his team wipe down the interior of the car from front to back before popping the hood. These are the protocols of an average auto repair shop during the Covid-19 pandemic. Wright, 52, has been working on cars for decades. Now he’s also required to be a public health expert.
The state of California categorized auto shops as essential businesses in March, and throughout the pandemic, Wright never closed his doors. He hosted weekly meetings with his employees to go over the social distancing measures that RM Automotives was implementing, and ordered loads of cleaning supplies to keep the location eternally fumigated. But for the most part, the early days of the coronavirus were marked by the doldrums. Nobody was going to work, so nobody needed to fix their car. Los Angeles was disconcertingly still. The staff worked on the few cars that remained in the shop from the Before Times, and waited to see what the world had in store.
By summer, says Wright, RM Automotives is back to capacity. People no longer fear leaving their houses; they have places to go, and some of them need to replace their air filter. It’s a strange respite for the employees. They are happy that the future of their jobs is no longer in question, but the threat of a second wave looms on the horizon. Who knows what may happen if we return to phase one lockdowns? California isn’t out of the woods yet. Wright and I spoke about that, as well the difficulties of sourcing hand sanitizer in March, and what it was like to fix up the cars of doctors and nurses in the middle of the crisis.
When did the pandemic begin to affect your business?
It was on March 12, when Mayor Eric Garcetti announced the stay-at-home order in Los Angeles. The next day things got really quiet, and the following week the streets were super empty. There was nobody making phone calls, nobody driving, nobody doing anything. That’s when we noticed a huge dropoff.
Were you still going into work during that time?
I kept the business open this whole time. The whole month of March and April we did about 50 percent of business. I was trying to ride it out, and I started talking to the employees about alternating days off to stay afloat. Then we started to see the protocols for essential businesses, and auto repair shops were going to be able to stick around. After that, my focus went to keeping customers and employees safe.
What was that like for you emotionally, to know that the future of your business was in flux?
It’s an uneasy feeling. You’re used to a certain number of clients, seeing their faces everyday. And all of a sudden, everything stops. I’m in a pretty busy area, so seeing the streets go dead, it was pretty scary.
Has business rebounded since then?
April and May were terrible. June, July, and August have been pretty much back to normal. I think people delayed a lot of the more minor services they needed. The only people I serviced in spring were nurses and first responder-type people. Because they were the only people still working. And when they came in, it was always an emergency — their battery died, and they needed transportation.
Did that make you feel like you were aiding the pandemic response, considering how many first responders you were helping?
Absolutely. I was so focused on trying to keep the business going, to take care of my customers and my employees, when it was really tough for everyone.
Did you always think the business was going to pull through, or did you ever have any doubts?
I always thought it would. I was in front of it pretty quick. I knew it would pull through, and I knew that some businesses wouldn’t. If it had gone past the first couple months, then I would’ve gotten nervous. But by the summer, and things came back to normal, I felt pretty good about it.
I imagine you guys had to stock up on hand sanitizers and other cleaning supplies during the spring. How challenging was it to source that stuff?
I belong to a trade organization, the Automotive Service Councils of California, that set me up with a company that was selling the hand sanitizer, because I couldn’t find that anywhere. I was scrambling, because normal channels like the grocery stores didn’t have anything. That trade organization gave me some other stuff I put in a spray bottle to hit customer’s keys, and everything else around the store.
What were some of the challenges unique to auto shops, that other stores might not have needed to think about as much?
The thing that we’re still thinking about today is how at risk we are to contract Covid-19 through the cars themselves. We have to think about sanitation before we start working on a car and afterward. We were making sure that every car that comes in is cleaned, and that it’s cleaned after we’re done. There’s an added expense to that, too. I’ve gone through cleaners, sanitizers, and gloves. I bought acrylic plastic barriers for where we have conversations with the customers. We do all of the cleaning ourselves. It’s just part of the business, now.
How much instruction were you given from the California government on how to keep yourselves safe while remaining open?
I’d read the media, I’d watch the press conferences, but there wasn’t much that was set in stone. I went to the City of LA website, and I got information there on how to proceed with business in the way that they wanted it done. But I took the initiative to implement all of those measures on my own, because I didn’t want anyone to get sick. It wasn’t laid out as clear as I thought it could be. There was information from third-party sources that I just kinda went with. It could’ve been more organized.
What sort of questions were your workers asking you?
I had weekly meetings where I’d sit down and say, “This is how we’re going to do it.” I wanted to get in front of it as best I could, and I never had any employees who were especially concerned about their safety. I made sure that their health was the top priority, before anything else. Nobody ever came to me and said, “I don’t feel comfortable with this or that.” I tried to make it as easy as I could for them.
Some auto shops are offering services where the client doesn’t even leave the car while their oil gets changed. Have you done anything like that?
We’ve had a lot of people show up where they park the car outside and leave their key in the car. They go home with a friend that came with them. Then I call them on the phone and tell them the repairs they need. We get authorization, they pay over the phone, and we do the work. We also provided pickup-and-dropoff services, because a lot of people didn’t want to leave their house. So, they didn’t have contact with anyone outside of their bubble.
There’s still a lot of worry about a potential second wave, and a return to stringent lockdowns. Do you think about that?
I do think about that. If there’s a new flood of cases and we’re back to where we were in April and May, that’s a concern. Things are going good right now. I’m keeping my name out there and getting new customers, we’re doing our best. But even for the protocols we have right now to keep the cars safe and the employees safe, how much longer are we going to do that for? Until we get a vaccine, I guess.


vox--2020-10-23--The technology that’s replacing the green screen

The green screen is a Hollywood staple .
But should it be ?
It ’ s easy to complain about overreliance on special effects , but for projects that require impossible-to-film environments or include incredibly expensive shots , how do you get the flexibility of green screens without the drawbacks ?
As the video above shows , there are solutions — and Charmaine Chan has worked on one of the possible options .
As a compositor for venerable visual-effects house Industrial Light and Magic ( ILM ) , Chan has worked on films like The Last Jedi , assembling various @ @ @ @ @ @ @ image .
Her job changed while working on The Mandalorian , one of the first shows to use ILM ’ s upgrade for the green screen : LED panels that use the same technology as video game engines to place a realistic-looking world behind the actors .
The result was a huge improvement , as green screens actually have a lot of drawbacks .
Removing the green screen is never as quick as VFX artists would hope , and it also casts green light over the set and the actors .
Even green-screen @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a screen behind the actor , fail to dynamically respond to camera movements the way they would in the real world .
ILM ’ s solution fixes a lot of those problems .
It also led to creative breakthroughs in which the old Hollywood order of making a TV show or movie — wherein VFX came last — was suddenly reversed .
Now , artists like Charmaine work alongside actors , set designers , and other crew members during filming .
That collaboration means this technology doesn ’ t just eliminate a screen @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Watch the video above to see how it happens .
You can find this video and all of Vox ’ s videos on YouTube .
Help keep Vox free for all Millions turn to Vox each month to understand what ’ s happening in the news , from the coronavirus crisis to a racial reckoning to what is , quite possibly , the most consequential presidential election of our lifetimes .
Our mission has never been more vital than it is in this moment : to empower you through understanding .
But our @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Even when the economy and the news advertising market recovers , your support will be a critical part of sustaining our resource-intensive work .
If you have already contributed , thank you .
If you haven ’ t , please consider helping everyone make sense of an increasingly chaotic world : Contribute today from as little as $ 3 .

The green screen is a Hollywood staple. But should it be?
It’s easy to complain about overreliance on special effects, but for projects that require impossible-to-film environments or include incredibly expensive shots, how do you get the flexibility of green screens without the drawbacks? As the video above shows, there are solutions — and Charmaine Chan has worked on one of the possible options.
As a compositor for venerable visual-effects house Industrial Light and Magic (ILM), Chan has worked on films like The Last Jedi, assembling various digital elements into a beautiful, seamless image. Her job changed while working on The Mandalorian, one of the first shows to use ILM’s upgrade for the green screen: LED panels that use the same technology as video game engines to place a realistic-looking world behind the actors.
The result was a huge improvement, as green screens actually have a lot of drawbacks. Removing the green screen is never as quick as VFX artists would hope, and it also casts green light over the set and the actors. Even green-screen substitutes, like projecting an image onto a screen behind the actor, fail to dynamically respond to camera movements the way they would in the real world.
ILM’s solution fixes a lot of those problems. It also led to creative breakthroughs in which the old Hollywood order of making a TV show or movie — wherein VFX came last — was suddenly reversed. Now, artists like Charmaine work alongside actors, set designers, and other crew members during filming. That collaboration means this technology doesn’t just eliminate a screen — it eliminates a creative barrier.
Watch the video above to see how it happens.
You can find this video and all of Vox’s videos on YouTube.