vox--2020-06-18--The Kentucky Senate primary showcases the 2 theories of how to beat Mitch McConnell

Share All sharing options for : The Kentucky Senate primary showcases the 2 theories of how to beat Mitch McConnell Two years ago , retired Marine Corps fighter pilot Amy McGrath was the insurgent outsider who bested the party-backed candidate in the Democratic primary for a key House race .
Now , McGrath is the party-backed candidate competing to run against Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell in the fall , and facing an insurgent challenger of her own in state Rep. Charles Booker .
The youngest black state lawmaker in Kentucky , Booker ’ s primary effort has gained serious @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Booker represent the two different theories of how Democrats could plausibly beat McConnell — a Kentucky political institution , and the most powerful man in the Senate who is loathed by Democrats across the nation .
McGrath is the archetype of the moderate , veteran Democratic women who flipped red House districts in 2018 ( though unlike many of her peers , she lost her own race that year to the incumbent Republican ) .
Booker is unabashedly progressive , in favor of Medicare-for-all , a Green New Deal , a universal basic @ @ @ @ @ @ @ third candidate , farmer and veteran Mike Broihier , is also running to McGrath ’ s left but hasn ’ t generated the same amount of buzz as Booker .
“ Primaries are good for having the important conversations , but we ’ re not running to have important conversations , we ’ re running to win , ” Booker told Vox in a Tuesday interview .
“ We ’ re poised to shock the world and once we do , hopefully people stop ignoring regular folks.
” Booker ’ s ascent has @ @ @ @ @ @ @ hometown of Louisville after the police killings of 26-year-old EMT Breonna Taylor on March 13 and 53-year-old restaurant owner David McAtee on June 1 .
He has garnered endorsements from progressive heavyweights Sen. Bernie Sanders and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez , as well as the state ’ s two largest newspapers , prominent Kentucky sports radio host Matt Jones , and even McConnell ’ s 2014 Democratic opponent , former Kentucky Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes .
Meanwhile , McGrath has the backing of Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer , who told reporters @ @ @ @ @ @ @ candidate ” and a “ strong candidate.
” “ It ’ s not the typical progressive wing of the party against the establishment , ” said Sunrise Movement political director Evan Weber , an early Booker endorser .
“ What we ’ re seeing is Kentucky Democrats vs. DC Democrats , if anything .
People in most places in the country don ’ t like to be told by Washington , DC , how they should vote and who their candidate should be.
” But many political observers in the state are wondering @ @ @ @ @ @ @ too late .
He ’ s behind in internal campaign polls , and McGrath has fundraised an eye-popping $ 41 million since she entered the Senate race — more money than even McConnell has raked in .
While McGrath has mainly been hammering McConnell on Kentucky ’ s airwaves , Booker recently went up with his first two ad buys .
“ Booker is trying to catch lightning in a bottle , ” said Kentucky Republican political consultant Tres Watson .
“ It ’ s his moment to seize .
The problem is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the tools that a candidate would normally rely on to win.
” Publicly , McGrath hasn ’ t traded many barbs with Booker ; her campaign team has largely been focused on the general election race with McConnell , as has been the case since she launched her Senate bid with a cutting ad last year .
And even with Booker ’ s last-minute surge , Team McGrath is projecting confidence they have the race locked up .
“ We ’ re the last people in American politics to complain about a primary @ @ @ @ @ @ @ two years ago , ” McGrath campaign manager Mark Nickolas told Vox .
“ [ Booker ’ s ] taken an advantage of an opportunity to step up and make his voice heard and I think good for him , but we ’ re going to win.
” This now hotly contested race is entering its final stretch .
And no matter who wins the June 23 primary , actually beating McConnell and his millions in an extremely pro-Trump state will be an uphill battle .
How the Kentucky primary went from sleepy @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Until a few weeks ago , it looked like Amy McGrath was the runaway favorite in a sleepy primary race .
McGrath fit the mold of middle-of-the-road , pragmatic candidates backed by the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee , the campaign arm of Senate Democrats .
McGrath ’ s primary victory over Lexington Mayor Jim Gray in 2018 was an early sign of the key theme of the midterms that year : Moderate women candidates ( many with military backgrounds ) often overperformed the men they were competing against .
Her campaign then — @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on health care , jobs , and veterans issues .
But while many of McGrath ’ s fellow challengers flipped their Republican districts , she ultimately lost by 3 points .
McGrath was the candidate of the moment in 2018 .
The question is whether she ’ s the candidate of the moment in 2020 , when the country has been rocked by Covid-19 and massive protests around police brutality .
The past few months have laid bare longstanding racial inequalities in jobs , policing , and health care .
And Louisville , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ epicenters , amid anger over police killings of two black people — EMT Breonna Taylor and barbecue restaurant owner David McAtee — in the past three months .
Booker ’ s rise is in many ways inseparable from the Kentucky protests , where he ’ s been an active figure .
McGrath was criticized for not going to protests until she attended a June 8 vigil , and for saying on television she hadn ’ t yet gone because of family matters .
“ This last couple of weeks which feels like a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ moment for our campaign , ” Booker told Vox .
“ [ People ] are screaming out and crying out in real time for justice in what happened to Breonna Taylor and Mr. McAtee .
I see my family crying , I ’ ve carried a lot of this trauma as well.
” Booker , who grew up in Louisville ’ s West End , said the past few months and weeks show him there ’ s appetite for substantive policy change in Kentucky — and not just in its urban center .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ him as too progressive to appeal to Kentucky ’ s rural coal country , Booker has also spent time there .
He says many of the same systemic issues in the city exist in rural areas as well .
“ People are rising up , ” Booker said .
“ They ’ re looking at structural issues , they ’ re looking at the fact that poverty is generational and we criminalize poverty .
We ’ re so used to folks talking about us and never listening to us .
It ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ can lean into issues that address poverty , issues that are progressive and build an incredible coalition of support.
” In Louisville , activists say there ’ s palpable frustration toward national Democrats for selecting McGrath as their candidate in February .
“ They declared Amy McGrath the frontrunner and the nominee they were going to back ... without even taking the pulse of Kentucky , ” said Darryl Young , who works with youth groups in Louisville and is a candidate for the Louisville Metro Council .
“ What you ’ re @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , you can ’ t tell us who to pick.
” McGrath is still the frontrunner , but Booker ’ s sudden rise is making outside analysts give the primary race a serious second look .
“ I think Charles Booker has real momentum , and he ’ s a candidate of the moment of the right now , ” said Jessica Taylor , the Senate editor for the Cook Political Report .
“ And I think McGrath has made some real missteps in how she ’ s responded to these protests .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ money would make her safe but we live in untraditional times.
” Internal polling from the campaigns shows McGrath with a double-digit lead a week out .
And while McGrath allies are watching Booker ’ s ascent , they still feel confident they can pull off a win next Tuesday .
“ Booker ’ s got a very strong lefty message , it ’ s the AOC message along with these racial justice components , ” said a person close to the McGrath campaign .
“ This is still Kentucky , he ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in Bernie and AOC , you ’ re lowering your ceiling.
” Even though some Kentucky voters have already cast their absentee ballots , Democrats in the state are watching to see whether Booker can pull off a come-from-behind win and be able to test his theory of running a progressive campaign against Mitch McConnell .
“ My gut tells me there ’ s a big chunk of the Democratic electorate that ’ s still up for grabs , ” said Kentucky Democratic strategist Matt Erwin , who is not affiliated with either @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Kentucky into play will be a challenge for Democrats Even if McConnell ’ s Senate majority is looking ever more tenuous , the majority leader himself will incredibly tough to beat in the fall .
National and state Democrats see a glimmer of hope in Democratic Gov .
Andy Beshear ’ s 2019 narrow win against former Gov .
Matt Bevin , but they also recognize McConnell ’ s seat itself is a longshot even under the best of circumstances .
“ McConnell is a ruthless campaigner , ” Taylor said .
The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Senate race is Likely Republican .
McConnell has been a senator since 1985 , and he ’ s risen through the chamber ’ s ranks to become the leader of Senate Republicans and now an incredibly powerful Senate majority leader .
McConnell has become something of a boogeyman for Democrats , who despise him for moves like denying Obama ’ s Supreme Court pick Merrick Garland a hearing , or holding up the vast majority of House bills in the Senate to prioritize filling the federal judiciary with conservative judges .
But back @ @ @ @ @ @ @ very hard to maintain an image that he ’ s delivering for his home state .
He ’ s also tied himself closely to Trump , who won Kentucky by 30 points in 2016 .
While McConnell ’ s campaign team has spent much of their time hitting McGrath in ads , they say the majority leader is well positioned to win against either Democrat .
“ The Democratic primary is pitting the self-described ‘ furthest left ’ person in Kentucky against Bernie Sanders ’ s hand-picked candidate , ” McConnell campaign manager @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
“ And neither of those traits lend themselves to success in a Kentucky general election.
” It ’ s not that McConnell is particularly well-liked in his home state ; in fact , he ’ s the second-most unpopular senator in Morning Consult ’ s Senate approval rankings ( Sen. Susan Collins of Maine holds the title for first ) .
“ I think there ’ s a big chunk of people out there who view McConnell as , well he ’ s an a-hole , but he ’ s our a-hole @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , told Vox .
When national Democrats approached McGrath about running against McConnell , the thinking was that if anyone could beat him , a woman Marine Corps veteran with 20 years of military service would be a good bet .
One mid-May poll showed McGrath leading McConnell by 1 percent , but otherwise , there ’ s been a dearth of general election polling .
Still , McGrath has proved herself to be a fundraising magnet , with a massive $ 41 million haul that tops McConnell ’ s fundraising .
McGrath @ @ @ @ @ @ @ who would like nothing more than to see McConnell gone ; she ’ s gotten 96 percent of her donations from out-of-state donors , according to OpenSecrets .
“ The leader knows he ’ s essentially a money sponge that ’ s going to help protect people like Cory Gardner , Susan Collins , and others , ” Watson said .
“ No matter what the DSCC tells donors , they ’ re going to end up throwing money at it , because it ’ s Mitch McConnell.
” Raising money is one @ @ @ @ @ @ @ carefully executed strategy to actually beat McConnell in a state where Trump still enjoys a 17 percent net approval rating .
Trump will almost certainly win Kentucky again in 2020 , so the best Democrats can hope for is a split ticket scenario where pro-Trump voters don ’ t cast their ballot for McConnell .
Democrats are also hoping they can replicate Beshear ’ s playbook of flipping some suburban areas around the blue centers of Louisville and Lexington that saw massive Democratic turnout in 2019 .
Whoever wins the primary — McGrath @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s moderate politics to make the case that is the best path forward for a Democrat running for Senate in Kentucky , or Booker , who says McConnell can only ignore persistent inequalities for so long — will have to square off for a very tough fight in the fall .
“ [ McConnell ] is a guy who is battle-tested and he leans into his bad narrative .
He likes being the devil , ” Nickolas said .
“ You have to rethink what a campaign is .
You have to be @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in politics.
” Every day at Vox , we aim to answer your most important questions and provide you , and our audience around the world , with information that has the power to save lives .
Our mission has never been more vital than it is in this moment : to empower you through understanding .
Vox ’ s work is reaching more people than ever , but our distinctive brand of explanatory journalism takes resources — particularly during a pandemic and an economic downturn .
Your financial contribution will not constitute @ @ @ @ @ @ @ our staff to continue to offer free articles , videos , and podcasts at the quality and volume that this moment requires .
Please consider making a contribution to Vox today .

Share All sharing options for: The Kentucky Senate primary showcases the 2 theories of how to beat Mitch McConnell
Two years ago, retired Marine Corps fighter pilot Amy McGrath was the insurgent outsider who bested the party-backed candidate in the Democratic primary for a key House race.
Now, McGrath is the party-backed candidate competing to run against Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell in the fall, and facing an insurgent challenger of her own in state Rep. Charles Booker. Booker is the youngest black state lawmaker in Kentucky, and his primary effort has gained serious momentum in recent weeks.
McGrath and Booker represent the two different theories of how Democrats could plausibly beat McConnell — a Kentucky political institution and the most powerful man in the Senate, who is loathed by Democrats across the nation. McGrath is the archetype of the moderate, veteran Democratic women who flipped red House districts in 2018 (though unlike many of her peers, she lost her own race that year to the incumbent Republican). Booker is unabashedly progressive, in favor of Medicare-for-all, a Green New Deal, a universal basic income, and police reform. A third candidate, farmer and veteran Mike Broihier, is also running to McGrath’s left but hasn’t generated the same amount of buzz as Booker.
“Primaries are good for having the important conversations, but we’re not running to have important conversations, we’re running to win,” Booker told Vox in a recent interview. “We’re poised to shock the world and once we do, hopefully people stop ignoring regular folks.”
Booker’s ascent has happened alongside the widespread protests in his hometown of Louisville after the police killings of 26-year-old EMT Breonna Taylor on March 13 and 53-year-old restaurant owner David McAtee on June 1. He has garnered endorsements from progressive heavyweights including Sens. Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, as well as the state’s two largest newspapers, prominent Kentucky sports radio host Matt Jones, and even McConnell’s 2014 Democratic opponent, former Kentucky Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes. Meanwhile, McGrath has the backing of Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, who told reporters on Wednesday that McGrath is “our candidate” and a “strong candidate.”
“It’s not the typical progressive wing of the party against the establishment,” said Sunrise Movement political director Evan Weber, an early Booker endorser. “What we’re seeing is Kentucky Democrats versus DC Democrats, if anything. People in most places in the country don’t like to be told by Washington, DC, how they should vote and who their candidate should be.”
But many political observers in the state are wondering if Booker’s rise is coming too late. He’s behind in internal campaign polls, and McGrath has fundraised an eye-popping $41 million since she entered the Senate race — more money than even McConnell has raked in. While McGrath has mainly been hammering McConnell on Kentucky’s airwaves, Booker recently went up with his first two ad buys.
“Booker is trying to catch lightning in a bottle,” said Kentucky Republican political consultant Tres Watson. “It’s his moment to seize. The problem is the pandemic takes away a lot of the tools that a candidate would normally rely on to win.”
Publicly, McGrath hasn’t traded many barbs with Booker; her campaign team has largely been focused on the general election race with McConnell, as has been the case since she launched her Senate bid with a cutting ad last year.
And even with Booker’s last-minute surge, Team McGrath is projecting confidence they have the race locked up.
“We’re the last people in American politics to complain about a primary because that’s how she won two years ago,” McGrath campaign manager Mark Nickolas told Vox. Booker has “taken an advantage of an opportunity to step up and make his voice heard, and I think good for him, but we’re going to win.”
This now hotly contested race is entering its final stretch. And no matter who wins the June 23 primary, actually beating McConnell and his millions in an extremely pro-Trump state will be an uphill battle.
How the Kentucky primary went from sleepy to competitive in a matter of weeks
Until a few weeks ago, it looked like Amy McGrath was the runaway favorite in a sleepy primary race. McGrath fit the mold of middle-of-the-road, pragmatic candidates backed by the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, the campaign arm of Senate Democrats.
McGrath’s primary victory over Lexington Mayor Jim Gray in 2018 was an early sign of the key theme of the midterms that year: Moderate women candidates (many with military backgrounds) often overperformed the men they were competing against. Her campaign then — much like today’s — focused on health care, jobs, and veterans’ issues. But while many of McGrath’s fellow challengers flipped their Republican districts, she ultimately lost by 3 points.
McGrath was the candidate of the moment in 2018. The question is whether she’s the candidate of the moment in 2020, when the country has been rocked by Covid-19 and massive protests around police brutality. The past few months have laid bare longstanding racial inequalities in jobs, policing, and health care. And Louisville has been one of the epicenters, amid anger over police killings of two black people — EMT Breonna Taylor and barbecue restaurant owner David McAtee — in the past three months.
Booker’s rise is in many ways inseparable from the Kentucky protests, where he’s been an active figure. McGrath was criticized for not going to protests until she attended a June 8 vigil, and for saying on television she hadn’t yet gone because of family matters.
“This last couple of weeks which feels like a few months has been a very defining moment for our campaign,” Booker told Vox. People are “screaming out and crying out in real time for justice in what happened to Breonna Taylor and Mr. McAtee. I see my family crying; I’ve carried a lot of this trauma as well.”
Booker, who grew up in Louisville’s West End, said the past few months and weeks show him there’s appetite for substantive policy change in Kentucky — and not just in its urban center. Even as McGrath’s campaign views him as too progressive to appeal to Kentucky’s rural coal country, Booker has also spent time there. He says many of the same systemic issues in the city exist in rural areas as well.
“People are rising up,” Booker said. “They’re looking at structural issues, they’re looking at the fact that poverty is generational and we criminalize poverty. We’re so used to folks talking about us and never listening to us. It’s going to surprise folks to know you can lean into issues that address poverty, issues that are progressive and build an incredible coalition of support.”
In Louisville, activists say there’s palpable frustration toward national Democrats for selecting McGrath as their candidate in February.
“They declared Amy McGrath the frontrunner and the nominee they were going to back ... without even taking the pulse of Kentucky,” said Darryl Young, who works with youth groups in Louisville and is a candidate for the Louisville Metro Council. “What you’re seeing now is Kentucky is like no, you can’t tell us who to pick.”
McGrath is still the frontrunner, but Booker’s sudden rise is making outside analysts give the primary race a serious second look.
“I think Charles Booker has real momentum, and he’s a candidate of the moment of the right now,” said Jessica Taylor, the Senate editor for the Cook Political Report. “And I think McGrath has made some real missteps in how she’s responded to these protests. Traditionally, you would think all her money would make her safe but we live in untraditional times.”
Internal polling from the campaigns shows McGrath with a double-digit lead a week out. And while McGrath allies are watching Booker’s ascent, they still feel confident they can pull off a win next Tuesday.
“Booker’s got a very strong lefty message, it’s the AOC message along with these racial justice components,” said a person close to the McGrath campaign. “This is still Kentucky, he’s running statewide. When you bring in Bernie and AOC, you’re lowering your ceiling.”
Even though some Kentucky voters have already cast their absentee ballots, Democrats in the state are watching to see whether Booker can pull off a come-from-behind win and be able to test his theory of running a progressive campaign against Mitch McConnell.
“My gut tells me there’s a big chunk of the Democratic electorate that’s still up for grabs,” said Kentucky Democratic strategist Matt Erwin, who is not affiliated with either the McGrath or Booker campaigns.
Putting Kentucky into play will be a challenge for Democrats
Even if McConnell’s Senate majority is looking ever more tenuous, the majority leader himself will incredibly tough to beat in the fall.
National and state Democrats see a glimmer of hope in Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear’s 2019 narrow win against former Gov. Matt Bevin, but they also recognize McConnell’s seat is a long shot even under the best of circumstances.
“McConnell is a ruthless campaigner,” Taylor said. The Cook Political Report rating for the Kentucky Senate race is Likely Republican.
McConnell has been a senator since 1985, and he’s risen through the chamber’s ranks to become the leader of Senate Republicans and now an incredibly powerful Senate majority leader. McConnell has become something of a boogeyman for Democrats, who despise him for moves like denying Obama’s Supreme Court pick Merrick Garland a hearing, or holding up the vast majority of House bills in the Senate to prioritize filling the federal judiciary with conservative judges.
But back home in Kentucky, McConnell has worked very hard to maintain an image that he’s delivering for his home state. He’s also tied himself closely to Trump, who won Kentucky by 30 points in 2016. While McConnell’s campaign team has spent much of their time hitting McGrath in ads, they say the majority leader is well positioned to win against either Democrat.
“The Democratic primary is pitting the self-described ‘furthest left’ person in Kentucky against Bernie Sanders’s hand-picked candidate,” McConnell campaign manager Kevin Golden told Vox in a statement. “And neither of those traits lend themselves to success in a Kentucky general election.”
It’s not that McConnell is particularly well-liked in his home state; in fact, he’s the second most unpopular senator in Morning Consult’s Senate approval rankings (Sen. Susan Collins of Maine holds the title for first).
“I think there’s a big chunk of people out there who view McConnell as, well he’s an a-hole, but he’s our a-hole,” Watson, the Republican strategist, told Vox.
When national Democrats approached McGrath about running against McConnell, the thinking was that if anyone could beat him, a woman Marine Corps veteran with 20 years of military service would be a good bet. One mid-May poll showed McGrath leading McConnell by 1 percent, but otherwise, there’s been a dearth of general election polling. Still, McGrath has proved a fundraising magnet, with a massive $41 million haul that tops McConnell’s fundraising.
McGrath has been the benefactor of Democratic donors who would like nothing more than to see McConnell gone; she’s gotten 96 percent of her donations from out-of-state donors, according to OpenSecrets.
“The leader knows he’s essentially a money sponge that’s going to help protect people like Cory Gardner, Susan Collins, and others,” Watson said. “No matter what the DSCC tells donors, they’re going to end up throwing money at it, because it’s Mitch McConnell.”
Raising money is one thing, but it will take a carefully executed strategy to actually beat McConnell in a state where Trump still enjoys a 17 percent net approval rating. Trump will almost certainly win Kentucky again in 2020, so the best Democrats can hope for is a split ticket scenario where pro-Trump voters don’t cast their ballot for McConnell. Democrats are also hoping they can replicate Beshear’s playbook of flipping some suburban areas around the blue centers of Louisville and Lexington that saw massive Democratic turnout in 2019.
Whoever wins the primary — McGrath, whose allies point to Beshear’s moderate politics to make the case that is the best path forward for a Democrat running for Senate in Kentucky; or Booker, who says McConnell can only ignore persistent inequalities for so long — will have to square off for a very tough fight in the fall.
“[McConnell] is a guy who is battle-tested and he leans into his bad narrative. He likes being the devil,” Nickolas said. “You have to rethink what a campaign is. You have to be willing to do things that are groundbreaking in politics.”


vox--2020-06-18--States that Trump won easily in 2016 are looking tight for him in November

Some recent national polls have President Donald Trump down by double digits against former vice president and presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden .
Perhaps most worryingly for Trump , even traditionally Republican states are beginning to slip back into the toss-up column .
Take Iowa , for example , which the president won by just shy of 9.5 points in 2016 .
Though the state hasn ’ t been heavily polled since the general election matchup was set earlier this spring , a June 9 poll from Civiqs shows Trump and Biden in a dead heat there .
A June @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , meanwhile , has the president up by a single point , and a Des Moines Register poll on Saturday found incumbent Republican Sen. Joni Ernst down 3 points — though still within the margin of error — on her Democratic challenger , Theresa Greenfield .
Ohio is looking similar : Trump won the state handily in 2016 , by about 8 points .
Now , a recent Fox News poll shows him down by 2 points against Biden there .
In both states , as well as Arizona , the Trump campaign @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s standing to spent a combined $ 1.7 million on advertising , according to a New York Times story from earlier this month .
The best the Trump campaign seems to be coming up with is sending cease-and-desist notices to news organizations over bad polls .
Amid a chronically mismanaged pandemic and ongoing anti-racism protests , that means Trump could be in a lot of trouble this November .
A close race in states like Iowa is bad news for Trump , because while Democrats would surely love to pick up the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in 2008 and 2012 , this November , neither Iowa nor Ohio is generally considered an essential part of Biden ’ s path to 270 electoral votes .
And in the battleground states that are a part of that path — Wisconsin , Michigan , and Florida , among others — Biden is looking even stronger .
In a Fox News poll of Wisconsin conducted from May 30 through June 2 , for instance , Trump is down by 9 points versus Biden , and FiveThirtyEight has Biden up by an average of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ conducted from May 1 through June 11 .
In Michigan , things look even worse for the president : He ’ s down by 7.6 points according to the FiveThirtyEight average , and a recent EPIC-MRA poll showed Biden up by 12 points in the state .
And then there ’ s Florida , Trump ’ s home state since he changed his residence to Mar-a-Lago from Trump Tower in September 2019 .
On the surface , things don ’ t look quite as bad for him there : He ’ s down @ @ @ @ @ @ @ according to the same FiveThirtyEight average spanning May 1 to June 11 .
Looking at June alone , though , paints a less rosy picture for Trump , who is losing by double digits in two of the three polls tracked by FiveThirtyEight to come out of the state this month .
Even in deep-red states that likely won ’ t be in play in November regardless of what happens in the intervening months , Trump ’ s approval rating has slipped .
According to a daily tracking poll by Morning Consult that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ this year , the president ’ s net approval rating in Mississippi has fallen by 20 points since he took office .
In Oklahoma , where he will hold a rally this weekend for the first time since the coronavirus pandemic , it ’ s the same — down by 20 , though his net approval is still 14 points above water .
Those numbers don ’ t account for the past four months of turmoil in the US , but a more recent Oklahoma poll , which was conducted on June 3 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ shows Trump with a 19-point lead against Biden .
That doesn ’ t sound like bad news for him , until you remember that Trump won Oklahoma by better than 36 points in 2016 .
Even Alabama , where Democrat Doug Jones is on the defensive in a tough Senate race , isn ’ t as excited about Trump as it used to be : The same Morning Consult poll shows the president ’ s approval down by 8 points since he took office .
Beyond his numbers in any one state , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
In 2016 , he won voters 65 and older by 8 points ; now , an Economist/YouGov poll that was in the field from May 31 through June 2 shows that lead down to just 3 points .
And while Trump has never been strong with women voters — who went for Clinton by 12 points in 2016 — he ’ s now losing them by what CNN polling guru Harry Enten describes as a “ historic margin , ” about 25 points among registered voters .
With all of that in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a positive one for Trump : He ’ s on the defensive in a slate of must-win battleground states that delivered him an Electoral College victory in 2016 , and formerly safe states like Iowa and Ohio are suddenly looking at least marginally competitive .
As he loses ground in the polls , Democrats are also eyeing an expanded Senate map that could give them a better chance of taking back the upper chamber of Congress along with the White House in November .
And all of this is occurring with a mishandled @ @ @ @ @ @ @ as the backdrop , which historically does not bode well for an incumbent president ’ s reelection chances .
Of course , it ’ s still more than four months until Election Day on November 3 — but as Vox ’ s Matthew Yglesias points out , things are looking better for Biden than they ever did for 2016 Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton , who enjoyed her own polling lead for much of the 2016 election cycle : And right now , Biden is up 10 in quite a few recent national polls @ @ @ @ @ @ @ case by November , though , is another question .
Every day at Vox , we aim to answer your most important questions and provide you , and our audience around the world , with information that has the power to save lives .
Our mission has never been more vital than it is in this moment : to empower you through understanding .
Vox ’ s work is reaching more people than ever , but our distinctive brand of explanatory journalism takes resources — particularly during a pandemic and an economic downturn @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a donation , but it will enable our staff to continue to offer free articles , videos , and podcasts at the quality and volume that this moment requires .
Please consider making a contribution to Vox today .

Some recent national polls have President Donald Trump down by double digits against former vice president and presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden. Perhaps most worryingly for Trump, even traditionally Republican states are beginning to slip back into the toss-up column.
Take Iowa, for example, which the president won by just shy of 9.5 points in 2016. Though the state hasn’t been heavily polled since the general election matchup was set earlier this spring, a June 9 poll from Civiqs shows Trump and Biden in a dead heat there. A June 5 Iowa poll by Public Policy Polling, meanwhile, has the president up by a single point, and a Des Moines Register poll on Saturday found incumbent Republican Sen. Joni Ernst down 3 points — though still within the margin of error — on her Democratic challenger, Theresa Greenfield.
Ohio is looking similar: Trump won the state handily in 2016, by about 8 points. Now, a recent Fox News poll shows him down by 2 points against Biden there.
In both states, as well as Arizona, the Trump campaign is reportedly worried enough about the president’s standing to spent a combined $1.7 million on advertising, according to a New York Times story from earlier this month.
The best the Trump campaign seems to be coming up with is sending cease-and-desist notices to news organizations over bad polls. Amid a chronically mismanaged pandemic and ongoing anti-racism protests, that means Trump could be in a lot of trouble this November.
Trump is losing ground in key swing states
A close race in states like Iowa is bad news for Trump, because while Democrats would surely love to pick up the Hawkeye State, which Barack Obama won in 2008 and 2012, this November, neither Iowa nor Ohio is generally considered an essential part of Biden’s path to 270 electoral votes. And in the battleground states that are a part of that path — Wisconsin, Michigan, and Florida, among others — Biden is looking even stronger.
In a Fox News poll of Wisconsin conducted from May 30 through June 2, for instance, Trump is down by 9 points versus Biden, and FiveThirtyEight has Biden up by an average of 6.2 points across all the Wisconsin polls conducted from May 1 through June 11.
In Michigan, things look even worse for the president: He’s down by 7.6 points according to the FiveThirtyEight average, and a recent EPIC-MRA poll showed Biden up by 12 points in the state.
And then there’s Florida, Trump’s home state since he changed his residence to Mar-a-Lago from Trump Tower in September 2019. On the surface, things don’t look quite as bad for him there: He’s down by just 2.5 points to Biden, according to the same FiveThirtyEight average spanning May 1 to June 11. Looking at June alone, though, paints a less rosy picture for Trump, who is losing by double digits in two of the three polls tracked by FiveThirtyEight to come out of the state this month.
Even in deep-red states that likely won’t be in play in November regardless of what happens in the intervening months, Trump’s approval rating has slipped. According to a daily tracking poll by Morning Consult that was active from January 2017 through February this year, the president’s net approval rating in Mississippi has fallen by 20 points since he took office. In Oklahoma, where he will hold a rally this weekend for the first time since the coronavirus pandemic, it’s the same — down by 20, though his net approval is still 14 points above water.
Those numbers don’t account for the past four months of turmoil in the US, but a more recent Oklahoma poll, which was conducted on June 3 and 4, does, and it shows Trump with a 19-point lead against Biden. That doesn’t sound like bad news for him, until you remember that Trump won Oklahoma by better than 36 points in 2016. Even Alabama, where Democrat Doug Jones is on the defensive in a tough Senate race, isn’t as excited about Trump as it used to be: The same Morning Consult poll shows the president’s approval down by 8 points since he took office.
The big picture
Beyond his numbers in any one state, there are other warning signs for Trump. In 2016, he won voters 65 and older by 8 points; now, an Economist/YouGov poll that was in the field from May 31 through June 2 shows that lead down to just 3 points. And while Trump has never been strong with women voters — who went for Clinton by 12 points in 2016 — he’s now losing them by what CNN polling guru Harry Enten describes as a “historic margin,” about 25 points among registered voters.
With all of that in mind, the big picture is not a positive one for Trump: He’s on the defensive in a slate of must-win battleground states that delivered him an Electoral College victory in 2016, and formerly safe states like Iowa and Ohio are suddenly looking at least marginally competitive. As he loses ground in the polls, Democrats are also eyeing an expanded Senate map that could give them a better chance of taking back the upper chamber of Congress along with the White House in November. And all of this is occurring with a mishandled pandemic and a resulting global economic recession as the backdrop, which historically does not bode well for an incumbent president’s reelection chances.
Of course, it’s still more than four months until Election Day on November 3 — but as Vox’s Matthew Yglesias points out, things are looking better for Biden than they ever did for 2016 Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton, who enjoyed her own polling lead for much of the 2016 election cycle:
This Biden lead is different. If you’re up 10 points in the polls, then the polls could be off by 4 points (which would be a big but not mind-blowing error) and the Electoral College could have a 4-point skew toward Trump (which is at the upper range of plausibility but not totally out there) and Biden would still win. Basically, if you are up 10 in the polls, you are almost certainly going to win.
And right now, Biden is up 10 in quite a few recent national polls. Whether that’s still the case by November, though, is another question.


vox--2020-06-18--EBay’s former CEO denies any link to the cyberstalking of a blogger. But he did want to create a com

EBay’s former CEO denies any link to the cyberstalking of a blogger. But he did want to create a competitor to challenge her.

Earlier this week , reports emerged of a very strange corporate scandal : Federal authorities charged several former eBay corporate security employees for their roles in a cyberstalking campaign targeting a blogger that involved Twitter harassment and mailing insects to her house .
Now , former eBay CEO Devin Wenig , who led the company at the time , tells Recode that he was shocked to hear details of the campaign this week and that he gave “ no direction ” nor “ tacit approval ” for it .
But the former eBay chief executive was at times so frustrated @ @ @ @ @ @ @ question that he on several occasions floated the idea internally that eBay should create its own competitor publication , multiple former eBay insiders told Recode .
“ On Monday , I read the charges along with everyone else , and was shocked and outraged , ” Wenig told Recode in a statement .
“ It is important for me to reiterate , and an independent investigation confirmed , that I had nothing to do with and no knowledge of the activities alleged to have occurred .
There was no direction , no knowledge @ @ @ @ @ @ @ approval .
Ever.
” Still , the fact that eBay ’ s security team allegedly felt comfortable executing such a campaign against the blogger and her husband suggest that the leadership team had , at best , problematic blind spots .
On Monday , the US Attorney ’ s Office in Massachusetts revealed a case against six former eBay workers who allegedly waged an “ aggressive cyberstalking campaign ” against the husband-and-wife team that runs EcommerceBytes , which reports business news geared toward online merchants who sell on eBay and Amazon .
The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ who post comments below articles , were often critical of eBay under Wenig ’ s leadership and sometimes of Wenig himself .
Authorities accuse the former eBay workers of a wide range of malevolent activities , including shipping them “ a funeral wreath , a book on surviving the loss of a spouse , and pornography – the last of these addressed to the newsletter ’ s publisher but sent to his neighbors ’ homes.
” The group , led by former eBay security head James Baugh , also surveilled the couple and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a GPS tracking device on their vehicle .
In court documents , copies of text messages showed Wenig twice instructing his communications chief , Steve Wymer , to “ take her down , ” referring to the EcommerceBytes owner and writer Ina Steiner .
On Thursday , Wenig told Recode in a statement that those texts “ have been wildly misinterpreted and taken completely out of context in some media reports.
” “ I was speaking off the cuff to a communications executive about my desire to be more aggressive in our PR @ @ @ @ @ @ @ would I fathom that , later , someone might associate that communication with the type of activity mentioned in the Massachusetts complaint , ” Wenig said in the statement .
Wenig ’ s statement added : “ I am genuinely sorry for the couple that had to endure these obscene acts .
No one should have to experience that , especially not a journalist .
What happened isn ’ t representative of the company culture I spent 8 years building , or the employees I knew there.
” Court documents show that Wymer @ @ @ @ @ @ @ hired a consultancy that “ prepared a document [ which ] included the recommendation , among others , that eBay promote company-friendly content that would drive the Newsletter ’ s posts lower in search engine results.
” Such an action could be seen as a fairly benign PR strategy .
But Wymer also sent text messages with an aggressive tone such as : “ We are going to crush this lady.
” Court documents also include an exchange between Wymer and the security chief Baugh in which Baugh references an unspecified “ Plan @ @ @ @ @ @ @ couple .
Wymer expressed a willingness to manage any fallout internally , but the messages do not indicate that Wymer had any knowledge of what the “ Plan B ” entailed .
Reached for comment , Wymer told Recode , “ I would never condone or participate in any such activity.
” Steiner did not respond to an email seeking comment .
EBay has said it conducted an internal investigation and found no evidence that Wenig directed or had any knowledge of the harassment campaign .
But the company implied that “ inappropriate @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in his ouster in September 2019 .
The company fired Wymer that same month in relation to an internal investigation it conducted with the help of an external law firm , after federal authorities notified the company of “ suspicious actions by its security personnel toward a blogger , ” according to a statement eBay posted on its website Monday .
Neither Wymer nor Wenig have been charged , and authorities did not name them in the affidavit ; instead , the two were simply referred to as Executive 1 and Executive 2 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s Office in Massachusetts declined to comment on whether other eBay employees might be charged .
“ [ I ] t ’ s an ongoing investigation , ” the spokesperson said .
Multiple former eBay insiders say that over his four years as eBay CEO , Wenig often took negative press personally , and that when it came to EcommerceBytes and Steiner , he was especially thin skinned .
“ He would often have very colorful words to say about her , ” according to one former insider .
Wenig on several @ @ @ @ @ @ @ should create its own news site for sellers to counter what he saw as biased coverage from EcommerceBytes , sources said .
The competitor site was never created .
Other executives , including current eBay executive Wendy Smith , also frequently aired frustrations about the site , multiple former eBay insiders told Recode .
But those same sources were in agreement that they never witnessed Wenig say or do anything that would make them think he would approve , or tolerate , the alleged criminal activity .
Similarly , a person who worked @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , told Recode that they would be shocked if the communications executive was involved with the alleged crimes .
The same source admitted that the communications executive could sometimes come across as extreme in work discussions .
“ It ’ s hyperbole , ” the person said of Wymer ’ s language in the text messages revealed in the affidavit .
“ Steve wouldn ’ t crush an ant .
But in heat of the sport , he will say things that are extreme.
” The eBay security team that allegedly carried out @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , the company ’ s current senior vice president of global customer experience and operations , Recode has learned .
EBay spokesperson Trina Somera told Recode that the company ’ s internal investigation “ found no wrongdoing with regard to Wendy ” and that “ she is not one of the people referenced in the government ’ s complaint.
” Every day at Vox , we aim to answer your most important questions and provide you , and our audience around the world , with information that has the power to save lives @ @ @ @ @ @ @ vital than it is in this moment : to empower you through understanding .
Vox ’ s work is reaching more people than ever , but our distinctive brand of explanatory journalism takes resources — particularly during a pandemic and an economic downturn .
Your financial contribution will not constitute a donation , but it will enable our staff to continue to offer free articles , videos , and podcasts at the quality and volume that this moment requires .
Please consider making a contribution to Vox today .

Earlier this week, reports emerged of a very strange corporate scandal: Federal authorities charged several former eBay corporate security employees for their roles in a cyberstalking campaign targeting a blogger that involved Twitter harassment and mailing insects to her house. Now, former eBay CEO Devin Wenig, who led the company at the time, tells Recode that he was shocked to hear details of the campaign this week and that he gave “no direction” nor “tacit approval” for it.
But the former eBay chief executive was at times so frustrated with coverage from the news website in question that he on several occasions floated the idea internally that eBay should create its own competitor publication, multiple former eBay insiders told Recode.
“On Monday, I read the charges along with everyone else, and was shocked and outraged,” Wenig told Recode in a statement. “It is important for me to reiterate, and an independent investigation confirmed, that I had nothing to do with and no knowledge of the activities alleged to have occurred. There was no direction, no knowledge, no private understanding, no tacit approval. Ever.”
Still, the fact that eBay’s security team allegedly felt comfortable executing such a campaign against the blogger and her husband suggests that the leadership team had, at best, problematic blind spots.
On Monday, the US Attorney’s Office in Massachusetts revealed a case against six former eBay workers who allegedly waged an “aggressive cyberstalking campaign” against the husband-and-wife team that runs EcommerceBytes, which reports business news geared toward online merchants who sell on eBay and Amazon. The site, and some of its readers who post comments below articles, were often critical of eBay under Wenig’s leadership and sometimes of Wenig himself.
Authorities accuse the former eBay workers of a wide range of malevolent activities, including shipping them “a funeral wreath, a book on surviving the loss of a spouse, and pornography — the last of these addressed to the newsletter’s publisher but sent to his neighbors’ homes.” The group, led by former eBay security head James Baugh, also surveilled the couple and considered breaking into their garage to place a GPS tracking device on their vehicle.
In court documents, copies of text messages showed Wenig twice instructing his communications chief, Steve Wymer, to “take her down,” referring to the EcommerceBytes owner and writer Ina Steiner. On Thursday, Wenig told Recode in a statement that those texts “have been wildly misinterpreted and taken completely out of context in some media reports.”
“I was speaking off the cuff to a communications executive about my desire to be more aggressive in our PR effort; never in my wildest dreams would I fathom that, later, someone might associate that communication with the type of activity mentioned in the Massachusetts complaint,” Wenig said in the statement.
Wenig’s statement added: “I am genuinely sorry for the couple that had to endure these obscene acts. No one should have to experience that, especially not a journalist. What happened isn’t representative of the company culture I spent 8 years building, or the employees I knew there.”
Court documents show that Wymer, eBay’s communications chief, hired a consultancy that “prepared a document [which] included the recommendation, among others, that eBay promote company-friendly content that would drive the Newsletter’s posts lower in search engine results.” Such an action could be seen as a fairly benign PR strategy. But Wymer also sent text messages with an aggressive tone such as: “We are going to crush this lady.”
Court documents also include an exchange between Wymer and the security chief Baugh in which Baugh references an unspecified “Plan B” in relation to the EcommerceBytes couple. Wymer expressed a willingness to manage any fallout internally, but the messages do not indicate that Wymer had any knowledge of what the “Plan B” entailed.
Reached for comment, Wymer told Recode, “I would never condone or participate in any such activity.”
Steiner did not respond to an email seeking comment.
EBay has said it conducted an internal investigation and found no evidence that Wenig directed or had any knowledge of the harassment campaign. But the company implied that “inappropriate communications” from him played a role in his ouster in September 2019. The company fired Wymer that same month in relation to an internal investigation it conducted with the help of an external law firm, after federal authorities notified the company of “suspicious actions by its security personnel toward a blogger,” according to a statement eBay posted on its website Monday.
Neither Wymer nor Wenig has been charged, and authorities did not name them in the affidavit; instead, the two were simply referred to as Executive 1 and Executive 2. A spokesperson for the US Attorney’s Office in Massachusetts declined to comment on whether other eBay employees might be charged. “[I]t’s an ongoing investigation,” the spokesperson said.
Multiple former eBay insiders say that over his four years as eBay CEO, Wenig often took negative press personally, and that when it came to EcommerceBytes and Steiner, he was especially thin-skinned. “He would often have very colorful words to say about her,” according to one former insider. Wenig on several occasions promoted the idea internally that eBay should create its own news site for sellers to counter what he saw as biased coverage from EcommerceBytes, sources said. The competitor site was never created.
Other executives, including current eBay executive Wendy Jones, also frequently aired frustrations about the site, multiple former eBay insiders told Recode.
But those same sources were in agreement that they never witnessed Wenig say or do anything that would make them think he would approve or tolerate the alleged criminal activity. Similarly, a person who worked closely with Wymer in a previous job told Recode that they would be shocked if the communications executive was involved with the alleged crimes. The same source admitted that the communications executive could sometimes come across as extreme in work discussions.
“It’s hyperbole,” the person said of Wymer’s language in the text messages revealed in the affidavit. “Steve wouldn’t crush an ant. But in the heat of the sport, he will say things that are extreme.”
The eBay security team that allegedly carried out the crimes reported up to Wendy Jones, the company’s current senior vice president of global customer experience and operations, Recode has learned. EBay spokesperson Trina Somera told Recode that the company’s internal investigation “found no wrongdoing with regard to Wendy” and that “she is not one of the people referenced in the government’s complaint.”


vox--2020-06-18--Remember Brexit? It’s still not over.

Remember Brexit? It’s still not over.

Brexit is probably not at the top of anyone ’ s mind in the middle of a historic pandemic , but both Europe and the United Kingdom are agreeing it ’ s time to start talking about it again .
The United Kingdom officially exited the European Union in January , but the divorce was far from finalized .
The UK ’ s departure kicked off the next , harder phase of Brexit : figuring out the future relationship between the EU and the UK .
Right now , the UK and the EU are still in a transition period @ @ @ @ @ @ @ partnership .
And the two sides are very much still working the entire thing out .
“ They got stuck on some pretty big and basically political issues , ” John Springford , deputy director of the Centre for European Reform in London , told me .
“ In order to unstick it , it ’ s going to require political intervention on both sides .
That ’ s why nothing much has happened — and coronavirus matters .
Because politicians aren ’ t going to put a lot of effort into this @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the pandemic.
” So yes , progress has stalled .
The coronavirus does get some of the blame , as it has complicated an already testy process .
The pandemic has consumed the attention of leaders as they try to manage the pandemic and the economic fallout .
Brexit talks were relegated to video conferences , making impossible the side chatter and dealings often critical to diplomacy .
The top negotiators for the EU and the UK both had to go into isolation with coronavirus symptoms .
But , even so , the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ left the EU are still , well , sticky .
The two sides have mostly just traded barbs and stayed pretty much deadlocked .
The pandemic also hasn ’ t changed the negotiation timeline .
This month , the UK government has formally ruled out extending the transition period another year , which means both sides have to come up with an agreement before December 31 , 2020 .
Which is now just about six months away .
In the face of this impasse , EU and UK leaders held high-level talks on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ President Ursula von der Leyen , among other top EU figures — and conceded both sides needed “ new momentum ” and agreed to intensify talks through the summer to try to reach a deal .
Johnson urged the EU to “ put a tiger in the tank , ” suggesting he wanted to hash out a deal by the summer .
Charles Michel , the European Council president , replied that the EU is “ ready to put a tiger in the tank but not to buy a pig in a poke @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a way of saying the EU is willing to negotiate , but not at a high price .
Tigers , tanks , pigs , pokes — whatever it is , the two sides are still at odds when it comes to an agreement , and the time frame is growing shorter , in case this at all sounds familiar .
And it ’ s not all that surprising the EU and the UK ended up here .
“ If you reckon that this is a cross between a trade negotiation and the aftermath @ @ @ @ @ @ @ normal , ” David Henig , the UK director at the European Centre for International Political Economy , told me .
Normal for Brexit , that is .
Because historic trade talks on a tight timeline during a global economic crisis and pandemic is anything but .
A post-breakup relationship is hard to do The UK and the EU are in a standstill period until December 31 , 2020 — basically , the UK is officially out of the EU , it has lost its decision-making power , but it is still following @ @ @ @ @ @ @ extending it , a decision he had to make by the end of this month .
So now the two sides are careening toward that deadline .
Experts told me that while December 31 , 2020 , is the deadline , a framework for a deal really needs to take shape by the fall in order to leave time to ratify and implement the deal .
The two sides need to come up with a free-trade agreement , but they also have to deal with a slew of other issues , from fishing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ still many questions about how the UK will put into place the new protocol for trade in Northern Ireland .
One of the biggest issues causing headaches in Brussels and London right now is that of a “ level playing field.
” This was always going to be the big one .
Johnson and the UK want zero tariffs , zero quotas in a free-trade deal with the EU .
The European Union says that ’ s nice , but if that happens , then the UK needs to maintain the same regulatory @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the EU .
The UK government is resisting this condition because it doesn ’ t want to be tied to EU rules .
There ’ s also some tension over the fisheries policy .
Even though it ’ s just a small chunk of the overall UK economy , it ’ s always been an outsized issue in the Brexit debate because Brexiteers championed it as a symbol of national sovereignty .
EU fisherman fish in Britain ’ s waters , but the UK wants to put in tighter restrictions .
The EU @ @ @ @ @ @ @ some EU states more passionate about this than others .
At the same time , the UK can ’ t go too far to protect its fisherman , as it exports much of what it catches to the EU .
Another sticking point is dispute resolution , or what happens when one side accuses the other of breaking the rules .
An independent arbitration panel will likely be established , but the EU and the UK have some issues on jurisdiction , particularly when it comes to the European Court of Justice .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ s just not totally clear at the moment where it ’ s about to come from .
Johnson ’ s meeting with EU leaders was , at least , a somewhat optimistic sign that the two sides needed a bit of a reset .
“ Now they ’ ve kind of been given a bit of a push to see if they can get on with it and stop yelling at each other , ” Henig said .
“ So now we see whether they can do that or not .
There ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and still a huge amount of detail behind this.
” A deal is still possible , and it ’ s in the interests of both sides .
But it ’ s going to require concessions on both sides which have not , to date , happened .
And as Henig pointed out , it is a breakup .
This is not just a straightforward trade negotiation .
Emotions are involved .
And so , once again , the no-deal Brexit is possible .
A deal is always possible , but is it probable @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , where the deadline kept getting delayed and delayed and delayed , that possibility is a little less likely here .
The current December 2020 cutoff is written into the Brexit deal between the UK and EU , which is now an international treaty .
The UK could have extended it but had to make that choice by the end of June , and it declined to do so .
That may add to the urgency of the negotiations — or increase the possibility of a no-deal .
The summer talks could bring @ @ @ @ @ @ @ need , or they could not .
“ It is not inconceivable , but it is improbable I would say because the UK is very dug in , and because it will be difficult for the EU with its 27 member-states to reach agreement on compromises on some of the core issues , ” Michael Leigh , a senior fellow at the Bruegel Institute in Brussels and professor at Johns Hopkins University , told me .
“ So it ’ s too early to write it off .
One could see it happening @ @ @ @ @ @ @ today , it doesn ’ t seem likely.
” That would be bad .
All the catastrophically disruptive things that could have happened if the UK left the EU without a plan in place before Brexit could still occur if the two sides reach the end of the transition period without agreements .
That ’ s because once the transition period expires , all the trade and regulatory arrangements the UK was following will end .
The two sides will trade under World Trade Organization rules , which sets the tariffs and quotas @ @ @ @ @ @ @ free trade agreements in place with each other .
Checks and controls could create massive and disruptive gridlocks at ports of entry .
A few thorny issues have been ( somewhat ) settled , including Northern Ireland ’ s border with Ireland .
But , in general , a 2020 no-deal could still look a lot like the one experts predicted before Brexit became official .
This is an outcome both the UK and the EU want to avoid .
Like last time , it will be bad for both the EU and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the UK .
Unlike last time , the entire world is reeling from the pandemic and the deep economic pain it caused , making the worst-case scenario sound that much grimmer .
Every day at Vox , we aim to answer your most important questions and provide you , and our audience around the world , with information that has the power to save lives .
Our mission has never been more vital than it is in this moment : to empower you through understanding .
Vox ’ s work is reaching more @ @ @ @ @ @ @ brand of explanatory journalism takes resources — particularly during a pandemic and an economic downturn .
Your financial contribution will not constitute a donation , but it will enable our staff to continue to offer free articles , videos , and podcasts at the quality and volume that this moment requires .
Please consider making a contribution to Vox today .

Brexit is probably not at the top of anyone’s mind in the middle of a historic pandemic, but both Europe and the United Kingdom are agreeing it’s time to start talking about it again.
The United Kingdom officially exited the European Union in January, but the divorce was far from finalized.
The UK’s departure kicked off the next, harder phase of Brexit: figuring out the future relationship between the EU and the UK. Right now, the UK and the EU are still in a transition period as they try to forge that new partnership.
And the two sides are very much still working the entire thing out.
“They got stuck on some pretty big and basically political issues,” John Springford, deputy director of the Centre for European Reform in London, told me. “In order to unstick it, it’s going to require political intervention on both sides. That’s why nothing much has happened — and coronavirus matters. Because politicians aren’t going to put a lot of effort into this because they’re completely consumed with the pandemic.”
So yes, progress has stalled. The coronavirus does get some of the blame, as it has complicated an already testy process. The pandemic has consumed the attention of leaders as they try to manage the pandemic and the economic fallout. Brexit talks were relegated to video conferences, making impossible the side chatter and dealings often critical to diplomacy. The top negotiators for the EU and the UK both had to go into isolation with coronavirus symptoms.
But, even so, the same sticking points that existed when Britain left the EU are still, well, sticky. The two sides have mostly just traded barbs and stayed pretty much deadlocked.
The pandemic also hasn’t changed the negotiation timeline. This month, the UK government has formally ruled out extending the transition period another year, which means both sides have to come up with an agreement before December 31, 2020. Which is now just about six months away.
In the face of this impasse, EU and UK leaders held high-level talks on June 15 — Johnson and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, among other top EU figures — and conceded both sides needed “new momentum” and agreed to intensify talks through the summer to try to reach a deal.
Johnson urged the EU to “put a tiger in the tank,” suggesting he wanted to hash out a deal by the summer. Charles Michel, the European Council president, replied that the EU is “ready to put a tiger in the tank but not to buy a pig in a poke,” which basically seems to be a way of saying the EU is willing to negotiate, but not at a high price.
Tigers, tanks, pigs, pokes — whatever it is, the two sides are still at odds when it comes to an agreement, and the time frame is growing shorter, in case this at all sounds familiar. And it’s not all that surprising the EU and the UK ended up here.
“If you reckon that this is a cross between a trade negotiation and the aftermath of a breakup, it’s normal,” David Henig, the director of the UK trade policy project at the European Centre for International Political Economy, told me.
Normal for Brexit, that is. Because historic trade talks on a tight timeline during a global economic crisis and pandemic is anything but.
A post-breakup relationship is hard to do
The UK and the EU are in a standstill period until December 31, 2020 — basically, the UK is officially out of the EU, it has lost its decision-making power, but it is still following EU rules. Johnson has ruled out extending it, a decision he had to make by the end of this month. So now the two sides are careening toward that deadline.
Experts told me that while December 31, 2020, is the deadline, a framework for a deal really needs to take shape by the fall in order to leave time to ratify and implement the deal.
The two sides need to come up with a free-trade agreement, but they also have to deal with a slew of other issues, from fishing to security cooperation. And there are still many questions about how the UK will put into place the new protocol for trade in Northern Ireland.
One of the biggest issues causing headaches in Brussels and London right now is that of a “level playing field.” This was always going to be the big one. Johnson and the UK want zero tariffs, zero quotas in a free-trade deal with the EU.
The European Union says that’s nice, but if that happens, then the UK needs to maintain the same regulatory standards on labor and the environment as the EU. The UK government is resisting this condition because it doesn’t want to be tied to EU rules.
There’s also some tension over the fisheries policy. Even though it’s just a small chunk of the overall UK economy, it’s always been an outsized issue in the Brexit debate because Brexiteers championed it as a symbol of national sovereignty.
EU fisherman fish in Britain’s waters, but the UK wants to put in tighter restrictions. The EU wants to keep its access, with some EU states more passionate about this than others. At the same time, the UK can’t go too far to protect its fisherman, as it exports much of what it catches to the EU.
Another sticking point is dispute resolution, or what happens when one side accuses the other of breaking the rules. An independent arbitration panel will likely be established, but the EU and the UK have some issues on jurisdiction, particularly when it comes to the European Court of Justice.
Compromise is always possible, it’s just not totally clear at the moment where it’s about to come from. Johnson’s meeting with EU leaders was, at least, a somewhat optimistic sign that the two sides needed a bit of a reset.
“Now they’ve kind of been given a bit of a push to see if they can get on with it and stop yelling at each other,” Henig said. “So now we see whether they can do that or not. There’s still some pretty tricky issues, and still a huge amount of detail behind this.”
A deal is still possible, and it’s in the interests of both sides. But it’s going to require concessions on both sides which have not, to date, happened. And as Henig pointed out, it is a breakup. This is not just a straightforward trade negotiation. Emotions are involved.
And so, once again, the no-deal Brexit is possible.
A deal is always possible, but is it probable?
Unlike the first phase of Brexit, where the deadline kept getting delayed and delayed and delayed, that possibility is a little less likely here. The current December 2020 cutoff is written into the Brexit deal between the UK and EU, which is now an international treaty. The UK could have extended it but had to make that choice by the end of June, and it declined to do so.
That may add to the urgency of the negotiations — or increase the possibility of a no-deal. The summer talks could bring the breakthrough that the EU and UK need, or they could not.
“It is not inconceivable, but it is improbable I would say because the UK is very dug in, and because it will be difficult for the EU with its 27 member-states to reach agreement on compromises on some of the core issues,” Michael Leigh, a senior fellow at the Bruegel Institute in Brussels and professor at Johns Hopkins University, told me. “So it’s too early to write it off. One could see it happening, but on balance, as of today, it doesn’t seem likely.”
That would be bad. All the catastrophically disruptive things that could have happened if the UK left the EU without a plan in place before Brexit could still occur if the two sides reach the end of the transition period without agreements.
That’s because once the transition period expires, all the trade and regulatory arrangements the UK was following will end. The two sides will trade under World Trade Organization rules, which sets the tariffs and quotas between countries that don’t have free trade agreements in place with each other.
Checks and controls could create massive and disruptive gridlocks at ports of entry. A few thorny issues have been (somewhat) settled, including Northern Ireland’s border with Ireland. But, in general, a 2020 no-deal could still look a lot like the one experts predicted before Brexit became official.
This is an outcome both the UK and the EU want to avoid. Like last time, it will be bad for both the EU and the UK, but far worse for the UK. Unlike last time, the entire world is reeling from the pandemic and the deep economic pain it caused, making the worst-case scenario sound that much grimmer.


vox--2020-06-18--These 11 Vox podcast episodes give more context to the protests happening across America

The recent anti-racism protests , which began in Minnesota on May 26 in response to a video showing the killing of George Floyd , an unarmed black man , at the hands of a white Minneapolis police officer , have spread globally , leading to broader calls for an end to police brutality and systemic racism .
How did we get here ?
To understand this moment , you have to understand more about the history of racism and police brutality in America .
These Vox podcasts will help you learn more about these issues , including how the protests @ @ @ @ @ @ @ America ’ s nightmare , ” what the “ abolish the police ” movement is really about , and why writer Ta-Nehisi Coates is hopeful about the future .
June 11 , 2020 | Thousands of people have taken the streets to protest during a pandemic .
Brian Resnick explains why not all public health experts think that ’ s a bad thing .
June 9 , 2020 | Minneapolis City Council member Alondra Cano explains what the city wants to do — and what might get in the way .
June 9 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Lind , and Matt Yglesias on America ’ s dual reckonings with racism and police impunity .
June 8 , 2020 | Paul Butler , author of the book Chokehold : Policing Black Men , began his legal career as a criminal prosecutor , a job he describes in this conversation as “ basically just locking up black men.
” Then the tables turned , and Butler found himself falsely accused of a misdemeanor assault .
“ After that experience I didn ’ t want to be a prosecutor any more , ” @ @ @ @ @ @ @ t think every cop lies in court , but I know for sure that one did.
” That experience put Butler on a journey very different from the one he began .
Now a Georgetown Law professor , Butler has come to believe that the criminal justice system is not merely broken and in need of repair ; rather , it is working exactly as it was designed , and thus needs to be completely reimagined .
June 5 , 2020 | Ezra Klein and Matt Yglesias on reformism vs. radicalism and reimagining @ @ @ @ @ @ @ | Two mothers talk to their teenage sons about race and police brutality in the United States .
June 4 , 2020 | The first question Ezra Klein asked Ta-Nehisi Coates in this episode was broad : What does he see right now , as he looks out at the country ?
“ I can ’ t believe I ’ m gon na say this , ” he replied , “ but I see hope .
I see progress right now.
” Coates is the author of the National Book Award winner Between @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Dancer , among others .
Klein and Coates discuss how this moment differs from 1968 , the tension between “ law ” and “ order , ” the contested legacy of Martin Luther King Jr. , Trump ’ s view of the presidency , police abolition , why we need to renegotiate the idea of “ the public , ” how the consensus on criminal justice has shifted , what Joe Biden represents , the proper role of the state , the poetry Coates recommends , and much more .
But there ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that Klein hasn ’ t been able to put down : There is now , as there always is amidst protests , a loud call for the protesters to follow the principles of nonviolence .
And that call , as Coates says , comes from people who neither practice nor heed nonviolence in their own lives .
But what if we turned that conversation around ?
What would it mean to build the state around principles of nonviolence , rather than reserving that exacting standard for those harmed by the state ?
How @ @ @ @ @ @ @ June 4 , 2020 | Zack Beauchamp , Jennifer Williams , and Alex Ward discuss the global impact of the anti-police violence protests in America .
They talk about large solidarity protests across Europe , explaining why and how they ’ re such a big deal and how police violence against foreign journalists is affecting relationships with key allies like Australia .
They also talk about how hostile dictatorships , such as China and Iran , are exploiting racial tensions to hurt America ’ s global image and deflect criticism from their own @ @ @ @ @ @ @ deep Cold War roots .
June 3 , 2020 | Even after Derek Chauvin was captured on video killing George Floyd , he could still get his job back .
BuzzFeed ’ s Melissa Segura explains how .
June 2 , 2020 | President Trump wants to blame the unrest on antifa .
Vox ’ s Zack Beauchamp explains what antifa is and why Trump is wrong .
June 1 , 2020 | Professor Ibram X. Kendi explains how the protests and unrest are a result of black America ’ s living nightmare @ @ @ @ @ @ @ up .
You can listen to these episodes and more Vox podcasts on Spotify , or wherever you find your podcasts .
Every day at Vox , we aim to answer your most important questions and provide you , and our audience around the world , with information that has the power to save lives .
Our mission has never been more vital than it is in this moment : to empower you through understanding .
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The recent anti-racism protests, which began in Minnesota on May 26 in response to a video showing the killing of George Floyd, an unarmed black man, at the hands of a white Minneapolis police officer, have spread globally, leading to broader calls for an end to police brutality and systemic racism.
How did we get here? To understand this moment, you have to understand more about the history of racism and police brutality in America. These Vox podcasts will help you learn more about these issues, including how the protests and unrest are a result of “America’s nightmare,” what the “abolish the police” movement is really about, and why writer Ta-Nehisi Coates is hopeful about the future.
Protesting during a pandemic
June 11, 2020 | Thousands of people have taken the streets to protest during a pandemic. Brian Resnick explains why not all public health experts think that’s a bad thing.
Minneapolis commits to “dismantling” the police
June 9, 2020 | Minneapolis City Council member Alondra Cano explains what the city wants to do — and what might get in the way.
After George Floyd
June 9, 2020 | Jane Coaston, Dara Lind, and Matt Yglesias on America’s dual reckonings with racism and police impunity.
A former prosecutor’s case for prison abolition
June 8, 2020 | Paul Butler, author of the book Chokehold: Policing Black Men, began his legal career as a criminal prosecutor, a job he describes in this conversation as “basically just locking up black men.” Then the tables turned, and Butler found himself falsely accused of a misdemeanor assault. “After that experience I didn’t want to be a prosecutor any more,” he writes. “I don’t think every cop lies in court, but I know for sure that one did.”
That experience put Butler on a journey very different from the one he began. Now a Georgetown Law professor, Butler has come to believe that the criminal justice system is not merely broken and in need of repair; rather, it is working exactly as it was designed, and thus needs to be completely reimagined.
Defund the police?
June 5, 2020 | Ezra Klein and Matt Yglesias on reformism vs. radicalism and reimagining law enforcement.
The Talk
June 5, 2020 | Two mothers talk to their teenage sons about race and police brutality in the United States.
Why Ta-Nehisi Coates is hopeful
June 4, 2020 | The first question Ezra Klein asked Ta-Nehisi Coates in this episode was broad: What does he see right now, as he looks out at the country? “I can’t believe I’m gonna say this,” he replied, “but I see hope. I see progress right now.”
Coates is the author of the National Book Award winner Between the World and Me and The Water Dancer, among others. Klein and Coates discuss how this moment differs from 1968, the tension between “law” and “order,” the contested legacy of Martin Luther King Jr., Trump’s view of the presidency, police abolition, why we need to renegotiate the idea of “the public,” how the consensus on criminal justice has shifted, what Joe Biden represents, the proper role of the state, the poetry Coates recommends, and much more.
But there’s one particular thread of this conversation that Klein hasn’t been able to put down: There is now, as there always is amidst protests, a loud call for the protesters to follow the principles of nonviolence. And that call, as Coates says, comes from people who neither practice nor heed nonviolence in their own lives. But what if we turned that conversation around? What would it mean to build the state around principles of nonviolence, rather than reserving that exacting standard for those harmed by the state?
How the world sees the George Floyd protests
June 4, 2020 | Zack Beauchamp, Jennifer Williams, and Alex Ward discuss the global impact of the anti-police violence protests in America. They talk about large solidarity protests across Europe, explaining why and how they’re such a big deal and how police violence against foreign journalists is affecting relationships with key allies like Australia. They also talk about how hostile dictatorships, such as China and Iran, are exploiting racial tensions to hurt America’s global image and deflect criticism from their own human rights abuses — a tactic with deep Cold War roots.
The problem with police unions
June 3, 2020 | Even after Derek Chauvin was captured on video killing George Floyd, he could still get his job back. BuzzFeed’s Melissa Segura explains how.
Antifa?
June 2, 2020 | President Trump wants to blame the unrest on antifa. Vox’s Zack Beauchamp explains what antifa is and why Trump is wrong.
American Nightmare
June 1, 2020 | Professor Ibram X. Kendi explains how the protests and unrest are a result of black America’s living nightmare and what it will take to wake up.
You can listen to these episodes and more Vox podcasts on Spotify, or wherever you find your podcasts.