vox--2020-11-01--At least 92 million people have already voted

With two days to go until Election Day , early voter turnout in the US has already reached historic levels .
As of Sunday morning , around 92 million people have already cast their ballot — nearly twice as many as voted early in 2016 — and that number is sure to grow before Tuesday .
Early voter turnout this election is equivalent to just slightly more than two-thirds of the total votes cast in 2016 , according to data provided by the US Elections Project , which is run by University of Florida professor Michael McDonald .
And some @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 66.8 percent nationwide mark : Texas , for example , hasn ’ t just eclipsed its 2016 early vote total , but its entire 2016 vote total .
In the Lone Star State this year , around 9.67 million people have already voted ; in 2016 , fewer than 9 million total voters cast a ballot .
Part of the reason for that is simple : Texas is a growing state .
Since 2016 , according to the Texas Tribune , it has added about 1.8 million new registered voters .
But it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ; even in terms of percentages , something exceptional seems to be happening in Texas .
Specifically , voter turnout as a percentage of registered voters is already nearly on par with 2016 totals — 57.3 percent so far in 2020 versus 59.4 percent in 2016 , again according to the Tribune — and is likely to climb even higher come Election Day .
Though only two states — Texas and Hawaii — have exceeded their 2016 turnout from early voting alone , other states are edging toward that mark .
As of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Florida stands at 92 percent of the state ’ s 2016 vote total , according to the Cook Political Report ’ s Dave Wasserman .
Among others , Georgia , North Carolina , and Montana — states that could have major implications for control of the Senate when a new Congress is sworn in , and two of which are considered swing states in the presidential race — have also exceeded 90 percent of their 2016 turnout , according to the US Elections Project .
There are a few reasons for the sky-high @ @ @ @ @ @ @ so far , and first and foremost among those is the coronavirus .
It ’ s generally a good idea to avoid congregating indoors in the middle of a pandemic , and early voting allows people to avoid that .
Mail-in ballots eliminate the need to go to a polling place altogether , and long early-voting periods help to spread out what might otherwise be Election Day crowds .
Many states have taken steps to expand early voting opportunities this year : All but a handful offer no-excuse absentee voting , and even @ @ @ @ @ @ @ added more days of in-person early voting .
Of the early votes cast so far , the lion ’ s share have been by mail : almost 59 million , versus 33 million in person .
People are also just plain excited to vote .
According to Gallup , 67 percent of Americans said they were “ more enthusiastic ” to vote in 2020 than in previous elections , a 20 percent jump from 2016 .
As Vox ’ s Jen Kirby and Rani Molla point out in their comprehensive early voting explainer @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in early vote totals so far .
According to modeling by the Democratic data firm TargetSmart , Democrats are ahead by about 7 points .
Previous non-voters also appear to be turning out in 2020 .
So far , at least 16 million people who didn ’ t cast a ballot have done so in 2020 .
And there ’ s a third noteworthy early-voting category : young voters .
In Texas , for example , more than 1 million voters aged 18-29 have already voted early ; only about 1.2 million total @ @ @ @ @ @ @ vote numbers are a good sign for voter turnout writ large — which could hit the highest level in a century — it doesn ’ t necessarily say much about which candidate holds the edge going into Election Day .
As Kirby and Molla point out , All of those mail-in ballots could also mean reporting election results takes a little longer — or a lot longer .
In some states , election officials can ’ t start counting mail-in ballots until Election Day , no matter how early they came in , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ when the polls close on Tuesday .
Lastly , if you haven ’ t voted yet but still want to get your ballot in early , there are a few options .
Some states offer early in-person voting through Monday — you can find a complete list here — so that may still be an option depending on where you live .
If you have a mail-in ballot , it ’ s almost certainly much , much too late to drop it in the mail with any confidence that it ’ ll arrive @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , your best bet is to return it to your local election office or a ballot dropbox ( if one is available in your state ) .
Once you have that done , buckle up : 92 million Americans have already voted , and Election Day is almost here .
Correction , November 1 : A previous version of this article stated that Texas was the only state to have eclipsed its 2016 vote total in the early voting period .
Hawaii has also done so , and the story has been updated @ @ @ @ @ @ @ free for all ?
The United States is in the middle of one of the most consequential presidential elections of our lifetimes .
It ’ s essential that all Americans are able to access clear , concise information on what the outcome of the election could mean for their lives , and the lives of their families and communities .
That is our mission at Vox .
But our distinctive brand of explanatory journalism takes resources .
Even when the economy and the news advertising market recovers , your support will be a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
If you have already contributed , thank you .
If you haven ’ t , please consider helping everyone understand this presidential election : Contribute today from as little as $ 3 .

With two days to go until Election Day, early voter turnout in the US has already reached historic levels. As of Sunday morning, around 92 million people have already cast their ballot — nearly twice as many as voted early in 2016 — and that number is sure to grow before Tuesday.
Early voter turnout this election is equivalent to just slightly more than two-thirds of the total votes cast in 2016, according to data provided by the US Elections Project, which is run by University of Florida professor Michael McDonald.
And some states are running far ahead of that 66.8 percent nationwide mark: Texas, for example, hasn’t just eclipsed its 2016 early vote total, but its entire 2016 vote total. In the Lone Star State this year, around 9.67 million people have already voted; in 2016, fewer than 9 million total voters cast a ballot.
Related The Vox 2020 presidential election live blog
Part of the reason for that is simple: Texas is a growing state. Since 2016, according to the Texas Tribune, it has added about 1.8 million new registered voters. But it’s not a pure numbers game; even in terms of percentages, something exceptional seems to be happening in Texas.
Specifically, voter turnout as a percentage of registered voters is already nearly on par with 2016 totals — 57.3 percent so far in 2020 versus 59.4 percent in 2016, again according to the Tribune — and is likely to climb even higher come Election Day.
Though only two states — Texas and Hawaii — have exceeded their 2016 turnout from early voting alone, other states are edging toward that mark. As of Saturday night, early voter turnout in Florida stands at 92 percent of the state’s 2016 vote total, according to the Cook Political Report’s Dave Wasserman.
Among others, Georgia, North Carolina, and Montana — states that could have major implications for control of the Senate when a new Congress is sworn in, and two of which are considered swing states in the presidential race — have also exceeded 90 percent of their 2016 turnout, according to the US Elections Project.
Covid-19 and voter enthusiasm contribute to early voter turnout
There are a few reasons for the sky-high early voter turnout we’ve seen so far, and first and foremost among those is the coronavirus. It’s generally a good idea to avoid congregating indoors in the middle of a pandemic, and early voting allows people to avoid that.
Mail-in ballots eliminate the need to go to a polling place altogether, and long early-voting periods help to spread out what might otherwise be Election Day crowds. Many states have taken steps to expand early voting opportunities this year: All but a handful offer no-excuse absentee voting, and even Texas, which doesn’t, added more days of in-person early voting.
Of the early votes cast so far, the lion’s share have been by mail: almost 59 million, versus 33 million in person.
People are also just plain excited to vote. According to Gallup, 67 percent of Americans said they were “more enthusiastic” to vote in 2020 than in previous elections, a 20 percent jump from 2016.
As Vox’s Jen Kirby and Rani Molla point out in their comprehensive early voting explainer, Democrats seem to have an edge in early vote totals so far. According to modeling by the Democratic data firm TargetSmart, Democrats are ahead by about 7 points.
Previous non-voters also appear to be turning out in 2020. So far, at least 16 million people who didn’t cast a ballot have done so in 2020.
And there’s a third noteworthy early-voting category: young voters. In Texas, for example, more than 1 million voters aged 18-29 have already voted early; only about 1.2 million total voted in 2016.
But while early vote numbers are a good sign for voter turnout writ large — which could hit the highest level in a century — it doesn’t necessarily say much about which candidate holds the edge going into Election Day.
As Kirby and Molla point out,
Democrats are voting in much greater numbers by mail, which is a big reason they have such a big advantage in the early vote count. This was expected, especially as President Trump’s false but nonetheless repeated claims about voter fraud filtered down to his supporters. So Republicans are showing up for early in-person voting, and even more are expected to turn out on Election Day.
All of those mail-in ballots could also mean reporting election results takes a little longer — or a lot longer. In some states, election officials can’t start counting mail-in ballots until Election Day, no matter how early they came in, so don’t expect immediate results when the polls close on Tuesday.
Lastly, if you haven’t voted yet but still want to get your ballot in early, there are a few options. Some states offer early in-person voting through Monday — you can find a complete list here — so that may still be an option depending on where you live.
If you have a mail-in ballot, it’s almost certainly much, much too late to drop it in the mail with any confidence that it’ll arrive in time to be counted. Instead, your best bet is to return it to your local election office or a ballot dropbox (if one is available in your state).
Once you have that done, buckle up: 92 million Americans have already voted, and Election Day is almost here.
Correction, November 1: A previous version of this article stated that Texas was the only state to have eclipsed its 2016 vote total in the early voting period. Hawaii has also done so, and the story has been updated accordingly.
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vox--2020-11-01--Trump’s latest defense on Covid-19 is a false attack on health care workers

Jason Miller , a senior campaign adviser to President Donald Trump , defended the president ’ s attacks on frontline health care workers on ABC ’ s This Week Sunday — and refused to repudiate Trump ’ s false claims about Covid-19 deaths .
Recently on the campaign trail — like when Trump took the stage at a rally in Waterford Township , Michigan , near Detroit on Friday — the president has pushed a baseless conspiracy theory that “ our doctors get more money if someone dies from Covid , ” and that they are inflating the Covid-19 death @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , of course , no evidence for either part of that theory — either that Covid-19 deaths are being overcounted in the US , or that medical workers are doing so to profit from a pandemic that has , as of November 1 , killed more than 230,000 people in the US .
But when This Week host George Stephanopoulos asked Miller point-blank about the attacks , Miller denied that Trump has said what he said .
He refused to say whether he thought “ doctors are inflating Covid deaths for money , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to back up Trump ’ s falsehood , before finally pivoting to the subject of tax cuts , leaving Stephanopoulos ’ s question unanswered .
The attack on doctors is not a new line for Trump .
Late last month at a rally in Waukesha , Wisconsin , he trotted out a similar line , telling supporters that “ doctors get more money and hospitals get more money ” for reporting patients with other comorbidities who die of Covid-19 as coronavirus deaths .
Trump ’ s comments Friday were quickly condemned by the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , AMA president Susan Bailey said , “ The suggestion that doctors — in the midst of a public health crisis — are overcounting COVID-19 patients or lying to line their pockets is a malicious , outrageous , and completely misguided charge.
” Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden also condemned the remarks at an event in St. Paul , Minnesota , on Friday .
“ Doctors and nurses go to work every day to save lives , ” Biden said .
“ They do their jobs .
Donald Trump should stop attacking them @ @ @ @ @ @ @ toll of Covid-19 is likely greater than is known Not only are doctors very much not overcounting US coronavirus deaths , but there ’ s good evidence that the current death toll — which stands at about 230,000 and is climbing steadily upward as the country enters a third wave — is actually an undercount of the virus ’ s true cost .
A recent preprint study by the University of Pennsylvania , Boston University , and the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation , released on October 2 , analyzes “ excess deaths ” @ @ @ @ @ @ @ could be expected in a normal year — to get a more accurate picture of the pandemic ’ s toll .
According to Boston University professor of global health Andrew Stokes , the study ’ s lead author , “ excess deaths can provide a more robust measure of the total mortality effects of the pandemic compared to direct tallies of COVID deaths .
Excess deaths include COVID deaths that were ascribed to other causes , as well as the indirect consequences of the pandemic on society.
” The study concluded that US @ @ @ @ @ @ @ about 36 percent — and that ’ s not an especially controversial assessment .
An even more recent study by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention found that the US had suffered nearly 300,000 excess deaths over the course of the pandemic .
Some of those deaths are , of course , part of the reported death toll , which stood at about 221,000 when the study was published .
But while the rest of those 300,000 “ excess deaths ” may not have been directly caused by Covid-19 , they “ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the virus , ” according to the New York Times .
The CDC study also found that excess death figures for people of color are markedly higher than those for white Americans .
That ’ s not exactly a new finding : There has long been evidence that Black Americans , as well as other people of color , have been disproportionately affected by the pandemic .
As Vox ’ s Dylan Scott and Christina Animashaun wrote in early October , Despite hundreds of thousands of dead Americans , however , the Trump @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to the pandemic .
Last weekend , White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows told CNN ’ s Jake Tapper that “ we are not going to control the pandemic , ” and Trump has matched those words with action this week , holding a rapid-fire string of rallies that are almost certainly spreading the virus further .
And in the closing days of a reelection campaign that most polls suggest he is poised to lose , Trump has also spent an inordinate amount of downplaying the very virus that hospitalized him last @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the corner , ” he said at the same Friday rally where he attacked health care professionals .
“ This was China ’ s fault .
Just remember it.
” The same day , the US broke a world record : 98,859 new Covid-19 cases in a single day .
Will you help keep Vox free for all ?
The United States is in the middle of one of the most consequential presidential elections of our lifetimes .
It ’ s essential that all Americans are able to access clear , concise information @ @ @ @ @ @ @ could mean for their lives , and the lives of their families and communities .
That is our mission at Vox .
But our distinctive brand of explanatory journalism takes resources .
Even when the economy and the news advertising market recovers , your support will be a critical part of sustaining our resource-intensive work .
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Jason Miller, a senior campaign adviser to President Donald Trump, defended the president’s attacks on frontline health care workers on ABC’s This Week Sunday — and refused to repudiate Trump’s false claims about Covid-19 deaths.
Recently on the campaign trail — like when Trump took the stage at a rally in Waterford Township, Michigan, near Detroit on Friday — the president has pushed a baseless conspiracy theory that “our doctors get more money if someone dies from Covid,” and that they are inflating the Covid-19 death toll because of this.
There is, of course, no evidence for either part of that theory — either that Covid-19 deaths are being overcounted in the US, or that medical workers are doing so to profit from a pandemic that has, as of November 1, killed more than 230,000 people in the US.
But when This Week host George Stephanopoulos asked Miller point-blank about the attacks, Miller denied that Trump has said what he said. He refused to say whether he thought “doctors are inflating Covid deaths for money,” and incorrectly claimed there was evidence to back up Trump’s falsehood, before finally pivoting to the subject of tax cuts, leaving Stephanopoulos’s question unanswered.
.@GStephanopoulos repeatedly presses Jason Miller on Trump’s false claims on doctors and COVID-19: Why does he "repeatedly attack doctors working on the frontlines?”
Miller: “I don’t think he was attacking anybody at all.”
G.S.: “We all just saw it.” https://t.co/PPoWucYWDV pic.twitter.com/i3VkGcrM4R — This Week (@ThisWeekABC) November 1, 2020
The attack on doctors is not a new line for Trump. Late last month at a rally in Waukesha, Wisconsin, he trotted out a similar line, telling supporters that “doctors get more money and hospitals get more money” for reporting patients with other comorbidities who die of Covid-19 as coronavirus deaths.
Wow -- Trump pushes a baseless conspiracy theory that US coronavirus deaths are overcounted because "doctors get more money and hospitals get more money" if they say people died of Covid instead of other co-morbidities they might have pic.twitter.com/9ug2AjoZvA — Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) October 25, 2020
Trump’s comments Friday were quickly condemned by the American Medical Association. In a statement, AMA president Susan Bailey said, “The suggestion that doctors — in the midst of a public health crisis — are overcounting COVID-19 patients or lying to line their pockets is a malicious, outrageous, and completely misguided charge.”
Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden also condemned the remarks at an event in St. Paul, Minnesota, on Friday.
“Doctors and nurses go to work every day to save lives,” Biden said. “They do their jobs. Donald Trump should stop attacking them and do his job.”
The real toll of Covid-19 is likely greater than is known
Not only are doctors very much not overcounting US coronavirus deaths, but there’s good evidence that the current death toll — which stands at about 230,000 and is climbing steadily upward as the country enters a third wave — is actually an undercount of the virus’s true cost.
A recent preprint study by the University of Pennsylvania, Boston University, and the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation, released on October 2, analyzes “excess deaths” — the number of deaths beyond what could be expected in a normal year — to get a more accurate picture of the pandemic’s toll.
According to Boston University professor of global health Andrew Stokes, the study’s lead author, “excess deaths can provide a more robust measure of the total mortality effects of the pandemic compared to direct tallies of COVID deaths. Excess deaths include COVID deaths that were ascribed to other causes, as well as the indirect consequences of the pandemic on society.”
The study concluded that US Covid-19 deaths may well be underestimated by about 36 percent — and that’s not an especially controversial assessment. An even more recent study by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention found that the US had suffered nearly 300,000 excess deaths over the course of the pandemic.
Some of those deaths are, of course, part of the reported death toll, which stood at about 221,000 when the study was published. But while the rest of those 300,000 “excess deaths” may not have been directly caused by Covid-19, they “would not have occurred if not for the virus,” according to the New York Times.
The CDC study also found that excess death figures for people of color are markedly higher than those for white Americans.
That’s not exactly a new finding: There has long been evidence that Black Americans, as well as other people of color, have been disproportionately affected by the pandemic. As Vox’s Dylan Scott and Christina Animashaun wrote in early October,
All of America’s minorities, with the exception of Asian Americans, have seen worse outcomes than white people during the coronavirus pandemic. But Black Americans have fared worst of all, with about 1 in every 1,000 Black Americans dying from Covid-19 since February. That is about 40,000 people who have lost their lives. For their share of the US population, Black people are dying in the pandemic at twice the rate of white Americans, of whom about 1 in every 2,150 people has died.
Despite hundreds of thousands of dead Americans, however, the Trump administration is increasingly signaling its wholesale surrender to the pandemic. Last weekend, White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows told CNN’s Jake Tapper that “we are not going to control the pandemic,” and Trump has matched those words with action this week, holding a rapid-fire string of rallies that are almost certainly spreading the virus further.
And in the closing days of a reelection campaign that most polls suggest he is poised to lose, Trump has also spent an inordinate amount of downplaying the very virus that hospitalized him last month.
“We’re rounding the corner,” he said at the same Friday rally where he attacked health care professionals. “This was China’s fault. Just remember it.”
The same day, the US broke a world record: 98,859 new Covid-19 cases in a single day.
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vox--2020-11-01--Trump’s closing argument is against a fake Joe Biden

President Donald Trump on Sunday morning tweeted that he is making gains with young Black voters ( which seems to be true ) , and that the reason for this is that Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden “ called Black Youth SUPER PREDATORS , ” which didn ’ t happen ( Trump followed up that Biden used the phrase “ according to my sources ” ) .
Trump has said this many , many times on the campaign trail — presumably because his campaign wielded the “ superpredators ” attack against Hillary Clinton in 2016 .
And while there ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a particularly effective strategy , Trump ’ s now-former campaign manager Brad Parscale touted it as effective .
But whether or not it worked in 2016 , it is true that Hillary Clinton used the word in reference to Black youths .
Joe Biden , by contrast , has not .
In fact , he is on record saying most youth , Black or not , “ are not the so-called ‘ superpredators.
’ ” This is just one example of a consistent feature of Trump ’ s closing argument against Biden .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ actual proposals , he ’ s invented a different person to run against : one who is too conservative — on matters like race — but simultaneously too liberal .
Trump is running against the “ radical left ” — of which Biden is not a part Back in February , it briefly seemed like Sen. Bernie Sanders would win the Democratic nomination , and Trump planned to run for reelection as a firewall protecting America from the threat of a socialist takeover .
But that didn ’ t happen .
Biden won @ @ @ @ @ @ @ given that he was in the lead for the vast majority of the 2020 primary cycle .
And while he did tack left on a couple of issues — notably promising a short-term moratorium on deportations until some Trump-era policies could be reviewed ( before backing off this position ) , and reversing his longstanding support for the Hyde Amendment to align his position with Barack Obama ’ s — he mostly took heat from the left and beat them .
Trump has responded to this triumph of meliorist liberalism by basically ignoring @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ t being painted as a knuckle-dragging racist based on fake quotes from the mid-1990s , he ’ s being cast as an avatar of the radical left .
To the extent that there ’ s an actual argument here , the notion is that Biden is too “ sleepy ” to make decisions for himself , and thus will be manipulated by “ the Radical Left ” behind the scenes .
Trump also wants to argue that it ’ s suspicious that Biden has not released a list of potential Supreme Court @ @ @ @ @ @ @ alleged takeover by the radical left .
In fact , no major party nominee other than Trump has ever released such a list — and Brett Kavanaugh did not appear on it , so it ’ s not clear what value such a list would have .
( If you are curious , Biden has promised to nominate a Black woman , and here ’ s a brief list of plausible candidates . )
Trump is also closing with the argument that Biden wants to “ ban fracking ” ( he does not @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ” which to the best of my knowledge nobody has proposed .
Trump ’ s basic problem is that while Biden ’ s policy agenda is extensive and constitutes the most progressive platform any Democrat has run on in generations , this largely reflects a leftward movement of public opinion .
Political scientists create an aggregate measure of public views on policy issues that they call “ policy mood , ” and in the most recent update , Americans ’ preference for liberal policies reached a 60-year high .
That made the victory @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Sen. Elizabeth Warren at least plausible .
But it also means that a more cautious , paint-by-numbers politician like Biden who follows the polls pretty closely can run on a fairly expansive agenda .
Trump ’ s plan to counter this shift in opinion is just to make things up .
The Covid-19 pandemic does not have a particularly close connection to traditional ideological battles .
But here , too , Trump ’ s plan is to rely on fabrication .
He says that Biden wants to “ LOCKDOWN our country , maybe @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the pandemic .
That would be awfully extreme if true , but of course it ’ s not true .
Biden ’ s actual Covid-19 plan includes no calls for a national lockdown .
It does include the idea of more financial relief for business and state governments , so that local decisions about business restrictions can be made more on the basis of public health , and less on staving off bankruptcy .
Conversely , Trump has taken to not just arguing against a fake Biden ’ s national lockdown but falsely @ @ @ @ @ @ @ inflating Covid-19 death numbers for profit .
Lying about things is not new to Trump , and to be honest it ’ s worked pretty well for him throughout his career .
But trying to BS his way through a pandemic may just exceed the domain of what flimflam can accomplish .
Will you help keep Vox free for all ?
The United States is in the middle of one of the most consequential presidential elections of our lifetimes .
It ’ s essential that all Americans are able to access clear , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the election could mean for their lives , and the lives of their families and communities .
That is our mission at Vox .
But our distinctive brand of explanatory journalism takes resources .
Even when the economy and the news advertising market recovers , your support will be a critical part of sustaining our resource-intensive work .
If you have already contributed , thank you .
If you haven ’ t , please consider helping everyone understand this presidential election : Contribute today from as little as $ 3 .

President Donald Trump on Sunday morning tweeted that he is making gains with young Black voters (which seems to be true), and that the reason for this is that Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden “called Black Youth SUPER PREDATORS,” which didn’t happen (Trump followed up that Biden used the phrase “according to my sources”).
Joe Biden called Black Youth SUPER PREDATORS. They will NEVER like him, or vote for him. They are voting for “TRUMP”. — Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) November 1, 2020
Trump has said this many, many times on the campaign trail — presumably because his campaign wielded the “superpredators” attack against Hillary Clinton in 2016. And while there’s no real evidence that it was a particularly effective strategy, Trump’s now-former campaign manager Brad Parscale touted it as effective. But whether or not it worked in 2016, it is true that Hillary Clinton used the word in reference to Black youths.
Joe Biden, by contrast, has not. In fact, he is on record saying most youth, Black or not, “are not the so-called ‘superpredators.’”
This is just one example of a consistent feature of Trump’s closing argument against Biden. Rather than attacking the candidate for his actual proposals, he’s invented a different person to run against: one who is too conservative — on matters like race — but simultaneously too liberal.
Trump is running against the “radical left” — of which Biden is not a part
Back in February, it briefly seemed like Sen. Bernie Sanders would win the Democratic nomination, and Trump planned to run for reelection as a firewall protecting America from the threat of a socialist takeover.
Related The Vox 2020 presidential election live blog
But that didn’t happen. Biden won the nomination, and unsurprisingly so, given that he was in the lead for the vast majority of the 2020 primary cycle. And while he did tack left on a couple of issues — notably promising a short-term moratorium on deportations until some Trump-era policies could be reviewed (before backing off this position), and reversing his longstanding support for the Hyde Amendment to align his position with Barack Obama’s — he mostly took heat from the left and beat them.
Trump has responded to this triumph of meliorist liberalism by basically ignoring that it happened. When Biden isn’t being painted as a knuckle-dragging racist based on fake quotes from the mid-1990s, he’s being cast as an avatar of the radical left.
To the extent that there’s an actual argument here, the notion is that Biden is too “sleepy” to make decisions for himself, and thus will be manipulated by “the Radical Left” behind the scenes.
Our numbers are looking VERY good all over. Sleepy Joe is already beginning to pull out of certain states. The Radical Left is going down! — Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) November 1, 2020
Trump also wants to argue that it’s suspicious that Biden has not released a list of potential Supreme Court nominees, creating another vector for the alleged takeover by the radical left.
People have long been voting but Joe Biden has still not released his Supreme Court List of Radical Left Judges that he would like to put on the Court. Also, is he going to Court Pack? He thinks he can bluff his way through these two important questions. Can only vote against!!! — Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) November 1, 2020
In fact, no major party nominee other than Trump has ever released such a list — and Brett Kavanaugh did not appear on it, so it’s not clear what value such a list would have. (If you are curious, Biden has promised to nominate a Black woman, and here’s a brief list of plausible candidates.)
Trump is also closing with the argument that Biden wants to “ban fracking” (he does not) and even “ban mining,” which to the best of my knowledge nobody has proposed.
“A vote for Biden and Harris is a vote to Ban Fracking, Ban Mining, and Completely Destroy Pennsylvania.” -@realDonaldTrump pic.twitter.com/xic6MI8kGc — GOP (@GOP) November 1, 2020
Trump’s basic problem is that while Biden’s policy agenda is extensive and constitutes the most progressive platform any Democrat has run on in generations, this largely reflects a leftward movement of public opinion. Political scientists create an aggregate measure of public views on policy issues that they call “policy mood,” and in the most recent update, Americans’ preference for liberal policies reached a 60-year high. That made the victory of a true left-winger like Sanders or Sen. Elizabeth Warren at least plausible. But it also means that a more cautious, paint-by-numbers politician like Biden who follows the polls pretty closely can run on a fairly expansive agenda.
Trump’s plan to counter this shift in opinion is just to make things up.
Trump’s distortions extend to Covid-19
The Covid-19 pandemic does not have a particularly close connection to traditional ideological battles.
But here, too, Trump’s plan is to rely on fabrication. He says that Biden wants to “LOCKDOWN our country, maybe for years” as his approach to the pandemic.
Biden wants to LOCKDOWN our Country, maybe for years. Crazy! There will be NO LOCKDOWNS. The great American Comeback is underway!!! — Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) November 1, 2020
That would be awfully extreme if true, but of course it’s not true. Biden’s actual Covid-19 plan includes no calls for a national lockdown. It does include the idea of more financial relief for business and state governments, so that local decisions about business restrictions can be made more on the basis of public health, and less on staving off bankruptcy. Conversely, Trump has taken to not just arguing against a fake Biden’s national lockdown but falsely claiming that America’s doctors are inflating Covid-19 death numbers for profit.
Lying about things is not new to Trump, and to be honest it’s worked pretty well for him throughout his career. But trying to BS his way through a pandemic may just exceed the domain of what flimflam can accomplish.


vox--2020-11-01--SNL takes on pre-election anxiety in its Halloween cold open

In the final Saturday Night Live cold open before Election Day , Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden , played by Jim Carrey , sits down to read a scary story — and is haunted by a succession of visitors , including Hillary Clinton , Nate Silver , and Mitch McConnell .
After discarding a copy of Donald Trump , Jr. ’ s book Triggered for being “ a little too scary , ” Carrey turns to a classic : Edgar Allan Poe ’ s poem The Raven , which he updates a little for 2020 .
“ Once upon a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ theories , and rifled through his adderall drawer , I was writing my acceptance speech when something stopped me with a screech , ” Carrey reads .
“ ’ Twas a knock upon my chamber door !
’ Twas someone still a little sore.
” That knock turns out to be Kate McKinnon ’ s Hillary Clinton , replete with a black cape and a raven perched on her shoulder , who warns against polling errors and raises the specter of a stolen election .
“ Just like Al Gore ?
” McKinnon @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Carrey , though , is unconcerned .
“ I can win !
People know I have a plan , ” he says as McKinnon swoops out of the room with a final rejoinder : “ But your real advantage is , you ’ re not a woman , you ’ re a man !
” McKinnon is followed quickly by FiveThirtyEight ’ s Nate Silver , played by Mikey Day , who delivers his own warning to the sound of yet more thunder .
Day reminds Carrey — and viewers — that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in six chance of winning ” ( in reality , FiveThirtyEight ’ s election forecast pegs his chances at about one in 10 ) .
To demonstrate the low probability of a Trump win , Day rolls a six-sided die repeatedly — and Trump ’ s number keeps coming up .
Finally , Day ’ s impromptu election simulator turns out a truly cursed result : an electoral college tie .
“ That ’ s not even an option !
” Day declares .
“ I ’ m just going to leave , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ” Next comes two late-breaking Trump backers : Ice Cube — who in reality has claimed he only wants to work with whoever is in power , and that he doesn ’ t necessarily support Trump — and Lil Wayne , who has backed Trump ’ s plan for Black Americans .
Played by Kenan Thompson and Chris Redd , respectively , the rappers tell Biden they like Trump because of the GOP ’ s tax policy .
“ Still I will win , because I ’ m a baller , ” a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ dons a pair of Biden ’ s trademark aviators .
Carrey ’ s final pair of visitors are familiar : Democratic vice presidential nominee Sen. Kamala Harris , played by Maya Rudolph , and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell , played by Beck Bennett .
Bennett displays an alarmingly reddish-purple pair of thumbs-up ( harkening back to a photo of the real McConnell with badly bruised hands earlier this month ) before rushing off to find his Horcrux , and the skit ends with Carrey and Rudolph addressing viewers directly .
“ I @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , no matter who has won , ” Carrey says before Rudolph cuts in to point out that “ it ’ s never a good sign when Walmart stops selling guns.
” ( Which it did , briefly , before reversing the decision . )
“ This daylight savings time , let ’ s gain an hour and lose a president , ” Carrey concludes .
“ And live from New York , it ’ s Saturday night !
” Will you help keep Vox free for all ?
The United States is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ most consequential presidential elections of our lifetimes .
It ’ s essential that all Americans are able to access clear , concise information on what the outcome of the election could mean for their lives , and the lives of their families and communities .
That is our mission at Vox .
But our distinctive brand of explanatory journalism takes resources .
Even when the economy and the news advertising market recovers , your support will be a critical part of sustaining our resource-intensive work .
If you have already contributed , thank @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , please consider helping everyone understand this presidential election : Contribute today from as little as $ 3 .

In the final Saturday Night Live cold open before Election Day, Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden, played by Jim Carrey, sits down to read a scary story — and is haunted by a succession of visitors, including Hillary Clinton, Nate Silver, and Mitch McConnell.
After discarding a copy of Donald Trump, Jr.’s book Triggered for being “a little too scary,” Carrey turns to a classic: Edgar Allan Poe’s poem The Raven, which he updates a little for 2020.
“Once upon a midnight dreary, while Trump retweeted QAnon theories, and rifled through his adderall drawer, I was writing my acceptance speech when something stopped me with a screech,” Carrey reads. “’Twas a knock upon my chamber door! ’Twas someone still a little sore.”
That knock turns out to be Kate McKinnon’s Hillary Clinton, replete with a black cape and a raven perched on her shoulder, who warns against polling errors and raises the specter of a stolen election.
“Just like Al Gore?” McKinnon intones as thunder crashes in the distance.
Carrey, though, is unconcerned. “I can win! People know I have a plan,” he says as McKinnon swoops out of the room with a final rejoinder: “But your real advantage is, you’re not a woman, you’re a man!”
McKinnon is followed quickly by FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver, played by Mikey Day, who delivers his own warning to the sound of yet more thunder.
Day reminds Carrey — and viewers — that Trump has “less than a one in six chance of winning” (in reality, FiveThirtyEight’s election forecast pegs his chances at about one in 10). To demonstrate the low probability of a Trump win, Day rolls a six-sided die repeatedly — and Trump’s number keeps coming up. Finally, Day’s impromptu election simulator turns out a truly cursed result: an electoral college tie.
“That’s not even an option!” Day declares. “I’m just going to leave, because I think our country is haunted.”
Next comes two late-breaking Trump backers: Ice Cube — who in reality has claimed he only wants to work with whoever is in power, and that he doesn’t necessarily support Trump — and Lil Wayne, who has backed Trump’s plan for Black Americans. Played by Kenan Thompson and Chris Redd, respectively, the rappers tell Biden they like Trump because of the GOP’s tax policy.
“Still I will win, because I’m a baller,” a visibly shaken Carrey tells himself as he dons a pair of Biden’s trademark aviators.
Carrey’s final pair of visitors are familiar: Democratic vice presidential nominee Sen. Kamala Harris, played by Maya Rudolph, and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, played by Beck Bennett.
Bennett displays an alarmingly reddish-purple pair of thumbs-up (harkening back to a photo of the real McConnell with badly bruised hands earlier this month) before rushing off to find his Horcrux, and the skit ends with Carrey and Rudolph addressing viewers directly.
“I’m sure it will be peaceful, no matter who has won,” Carrey says before Rudolph cuts in to point out that “it’s never a good sign when Walmart stops selling guns.” (Which it did, briefly, before reversing the decision.)
“This daylight savings time, let’s gain an hour and lose a president,” Carrey concludes. “And live from New York, it’s Saturday night!”
ntribute today from as little as $3.


vox--2020-11-01--Trump’s plan to win by invalidating votes, explained

Behind in the polls , Republicans are becoming increasingly blunt about their plan to win the election : don ’ t let everyone ’ s votes be counted .
As Astead Herndon and Annie Karni reported for the New York Times Saturday evening : “ Trump advisers said their best hope was if the president wins Ohio and Florida is too close to call early in the night , depriving Mr. Biden a swift victory and giving Mr. Trump the room to undermine the validity of uncounted mail-in ballots in the days after.
” This is a very plausible scenario @ @ @ @ @ @ @ has explained , due to differences in local election law , “ the general expectation is that Florida , North Carolina , and Arizona are in a good place to count most of their votes on election night or soon afterward ” but “ Pennsylvania , Wisconsin , and Michigan — the trio of states that clinched Trump ’ s victory in 2016 — are a different story.
” Current polls show Biden leading in all six states .
But his leads are narrower in the fast-counting states than in the slow-counting states @ @ @ @ @ @ @ than polls currently suggest , he could win the fast-counting states on election night and wage battle in the courts to try to prevent the slow-counting ones from fully tallying their votes .
It ’ s a longshot effort , but the only reason it ’ s on the table at all is that the GOP-controlled legislatures in those three states have deliberately acted to keep the vote count slow .
So there are indications Trump may have party support if he tries to undermine the counting .
Meanwhile , other actions over @ @ @ @ @ @ @ reveal a Republican Party that is broadly committed to using roadblocks to voting as a strategy for victory .
Police officers in Graham , North Carolina , used pepper spray on a peaceful crowd participating in a Black Lives Matter “ march to the polls ” event Saturday .
Witnesses in North Carolina reported gas was turned on a crowd including children and the elderly .
Rank-and-file police have become increasingly enmeshed in partisan politics , with police union representatives featured heavily at the Republican National Convention and pro-Trump gatherings using the Thin @ @ @ @ @ @ @ American flag .
Meanwhile in Texas , where the new “ judge ” ( chief executive ) of Harris County ( which includes Houston ) has gone to extraordinary lengths to boost voter turnout , two disturbing incidents serve as reminders of the lengths to which Republicans will go to win .
On the legal front , the Texas Republican Party has sued in court to get over 100,000 votes that have already been cast at Houston-area “ drive-through ” voting centers invalidated .
Tossing them out at this point would not only @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , it would likely prevent people from voting altogether .
The claim is legally dubious and has already been dismissed by a Republican-dominated Texas Supreme Court .
But the district court judge to which the case has been assigned , Andrew Hanen , is one of the most right-wing and incautious figures in the entire federal judiciary .
Separately in Texas , a swarm of Trump supporters surrounded a Biden/Harris campaign bus in Hays County in the Austin suburbs , prompting an FBI investigation .
In a stark contrast with Republicans ’ purported @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Sanders being refused service at a restaurant , Trump hailed the assailants on Twitter , remarking “ I LOVE TEXAS !
” It ’ s very unlikely that police officers going rogue in North Carolina will effectively suppress the vote there , or that Texas will be decisive in the election .
But these irregular activities speak to a larger strategy for winning the election that focuses on invalidating legitimate votes .
The plan to not count the votes , explained Many states , especially those with Democratic governors , moved to expand @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , both in light of the Covid-19 pandemic and also because Democrats tend to favor these ideas in general .
Trump has all along maintained the paradoxical position that expanded mail voting is bad because it ’ s highly vulnerable to fraud ( which is not true ) , but that the widespread use of vote-by-mail in Florida ( where it ’ s well-entrenched and Republicans have a robust vote-by-mail infrastructure in place ) is good .
The dispute about vote-by-mail and the larger dispute about the pandemic ultimately opened up a huge @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Across the country , Biden supporters are much more likely than Trump supporters to be voting by mail .
This , in turn , opened up a partisan gap in election administration .
In states like Florida and Arizona where mail voting is long established , it ’ s normal to start counting early votes in advance .
As the Democratic governors in the Northern battleground states moved to expand early voting , they also moved to update vote-counting procedures to match the fast-counting process .
But in all three states , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a majority of votes in each state having been cast for Democratic state legislators ) opted not to do that .
Separately , states vary in how they treat the deadline for ballots to arrive .
In some places , a ballot is valid as long as it was mailed by Election Day ( the way it works with tax returns ) while in others it must arrive by Election Day .
Republicans have forced states to discount late-arriving votes , while simultaneously the US Postal Service has slowed down mail delivery , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ swing states .
Consequently , in the Northern battlegrounds : • Some voters will have their preferences not counted because the mail came too slowly .
• The initial counts will likely be heavily weighted toward Republicans who vote in person , then swing toward Democrats over time as the mailed ballots add up .
It ’ s extremely common in the United States for it to take days or weeks to fully tally the votes in an election .
In 2018 , there was a House race in California that wasn ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Trump ’ s rhetorical denigration of mail voting as fraud-ridden , his frequent statements at rallies that we should know the winner of the election on Election Day ( which is not , and has never been , any kind of rule ) , and Republican legislatures ’ refusal to modernize counting practices have long raised eyebrows .
As Jason Miller , a Trump campaign official , put it Sunday morning on ABC , “ If you speak with many smart Democrats , they believe that Trump will be ahead on election night @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ] , somewhere in that range , and then they ’ re gon na try to steal it back after the election.
” Herndon and Karni ’ s reporting confirms that if Trump manages to hold on in the South , his campaign has a formal strategy of trying to invalidate the vote in the slow-counting Great Lakes states .
And the alarming acts in Texas and North Carolina are reminders that Republicans won ’ t necessarily limit themselves to legal means — or be limited by sworn law enforcement officers — in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Will you help keep Vox free for all ?
The United States is in the middle of one of the most consequential presidential elections of our lifetimes .
It ’ s essential that all Americans are able to access clear , concise information on what the outcome of the election could mean for their lives , and the lives of their families and communities .
That is our mission at Vox .
But our distinctive brand of explanatory journalism takes resources .
Even when the economy and the news advertising market recovers @ @ @ @ @ @ @ part of sustaining our resource-intensive work .
If you have already contributed , thank you .
If you haven ’ t , please consider helping everyone understand this presidential election : Contribute today from as little as $ 3 .

Behind in the polls, Republicans are becoming increasingly blunt about their plan to win the election: don’t let everyone’s votes be counted.
As Astead Herndon and Annie Karni reported for the New York Times Saturday evening: “Trump advisers said their best hope was if the president wins Ohio and Florida is too close to call early in the night, depriving Mr. Biden a swift victory and giving Mr. Trump the room to undermine the validity of uncounted mail-in ballots in the days after.”
This is a very plausible scenario. As Vox’s Andrew Prokop has explained, due to differences in local election law, “the general expectation is that Florida, North Carolina, and Arizona are in a good place to count most of their votes on election night or soon afterward” but “Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan — the trio of states that clinched Trump’s victory in 2016 — are a different story.”
Current polls show Biden leading in all six states. But his leads are narrower in the fast-counting states than in the slow-counting states, so if Trump does moderately better than polls currently suggest, he could win the fast-counting states on election night and wage battle in the courts to try to prevent the slow-counting ones from fully tallying their votes.
It’s a longshot effort, but the only reason it’s on the table at all is that the GOP-controlled legislatures in those three states have deliberately acted to keep the vote count slow. So there are indications Trump may have party support if he tries to undermine the counting. Meanwhile, other actions over the weekend from North Carolina to Texas reveal a Republican Party that is broadly committed to using roadblocks to voting as a strategy for victory.
Vote suppression in Texas and North Carolina
Police officers in Graham, North Carolina, used pepper spray on a peaceful crowd participating in a Black Lives Matter “march to the polls” event Saturday. Witnesses in North Carolina reported gas was turned on a crowd including children and the elderly.
This morning/afternoon in Graham was wild. Children and elderly were getting tear gassed. The sheriff and Graham police should be ashamed of themselves for the pain they caused. — Beatrice Frum (@beatrice_frum) October 31, 2020
Rank-and-file police have become increasingly enmeshed in partisan politics, with police union representatives featured heavily at the Republican National Convention and pro-Trump gatherings using the Thin Blue Line flag in addition to the American flag.
Meanwhile in Texas, where the new “judge” (chief executive) of Harris County (which includes Houston) has gone to extraordinary lengths to boost voter turnout, two disturbing incidents serve as reminders of the lengths to which Republicans will go to win.
On the legal front, the Texas Republican Party has sued in court to get over 100,000 votes that have already been cast at Houston-area “drive-through” voting centers invalidated. Tossing them out at this point would not only be a huge inconvenience for those voters, it would likely prevent people from voting altogether. The claim is legally dubious and has already been dismissed by a Republican-dominated Texas Supreme Court. But the district court judge to which the case has been assigned, Andrew Hanen, is one of the most right-wing and incautious figures in the entire federal judiciary.
Separately in Texas, a swarm of Trump supporters surrounded a Biden/Harris campaign bus in Hays County in the Austin suburbs, prompting an FBI investigation.
In a stark contrast with Republicans’ purported belief in decorum over things like Sarah Sanders being refused service at a restaurant, Trump hailed the assailants on Twitter, remarking “I LOVE TEXAS!”
President Trump endorses attempted vehicular homicide https://t.co/CxNcu2WgnR — David Frum (@davidfrum) November 1, 2020
It’s very unlikely that police officers going rogue in North Carolina will effectively suppress the vote there, or that Texas will be decisive in the election. But these irregular activities speak to a larger strategy for winning the election that focuses on invalidating legitimate votes.
The plan to not count the votes, explained
Many states, especially those with Democratic governors, moved to expand early voting and vote-by-mail options this year, both in light of the Covid-19 pandemic and also because Democrats tend to favor these ideas in general. Trump has all along maintained the paradoxical position that expanded mail voting is bad because it’s highly vulnerable to fraud (which is not true), but that the widespread use of vote-by-mail in Florida (where it’s well-entrenched and Republicans have a robust vote-by-mail infrastructure in place) is good.
The dispute about vote-by-mail and the larger dispute about the pandemic ultimately opened up a huge partisan gap in how people are voting. Across the country, Biden supporters are much more likely than Trump supporters to be voting by mail.
This, in turn, opened up a partisan gap in election administration. In states like Florida and Arizona where mail voting is long established, it’s normal to start counting early votes in advance. As the Democratic governors in the Northern battleground states moved to expand early voting, they also moved to update vote-counting procedures to match the fast-counting process. But in all three states, legislatures that have Republican majorities (despite a majority of votes in each state having been cast for Democratic state legislators) opted not to do that.
NEW: This map shows how 9 of 99 state legislatures have GOP minority rule where Dems won more votes than the GOP in the last election but no majorities. The GOP gerrymandered MI, NC, PA, & WI, while MN has court-drawn maps. Without minority rule here, Dems would have full control pic.twitter.com/zqn51ZG2iW — Stephen Wolf (@PoliticsWolf) October 30, 2020
Separately, states vary in how they treat the deadline for ballots to arrive. In some places, a ballot is valid as long as it was mailed by Election Day (the way it works with tax returns) while in others it must arrive by Election Day. Republicans have forced states to discount late-arriving votes, while simultaneously the US Postal Service has slowed down mail delivery, with large slowdowns seeming to happen in swing states.
Consequently, in the Northern battlegrounds:
Some voters will have their preferences not counted because the mail came too slowly.
The initial counts will likely be heavily weighted toward Republicans who vote in person, then swing toward Democrats over time as the mailed ballots add up.
It’s extremely common in the United States for it to take days or weeks to fully tally the votes in an election. In 2018, there was a House race in California that wasn’t settled until November 26. But Trump’s rhetorical denigration of mail voting as fraud-ridden, his frequent statements at rallies that we should know the winner of the election on Election Day (which is not, and has never been, any kind of rule), and Republican legislatures’ refusal to modernize counting practices have long raised eyebrows.
As Jason Miller, a Trump campaign official, put it Sunday morning on ABC, “If you speak with many smart Democrats, they believe that Trump will be ahead on election night, probably getting 280 electoral [votes], somewhere in that range, and then they’re gonna try to steal it back after the election.”
Herndon and Karni’s reporting confirms that if Trump manages to hold on in the South, his campaign has a formal strategy of trying to invalidate the vote in the slow-counting Great Lakes states.
And the alarming acts in Texas and North Carolina are reminders that Republicans won’t necessarily limit themselves to legal means — or be limited by sworn law enforcement officers — in their efforts to get what they want.


vox--2020-11-02--Early voting numbers are truly astounding

More than 97 million people have already cast ballots in the 2020 election — an early turnout record that shows this year ’ s election carries enormous weight with Americans .
In 11 states , the number of votes cast so far in 2020 is at least 90 percent of the total cast in the entire 2016 election .
About 24 hours before polls are set to close on Election Day , the number of votes cast was almost 98 million , about two-thirds of which came via mail-in ballots .
The rest of the voters showed up at a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The early voting figure is just shy of 71 percent of 2016 ’ s total numbers nationwide .
In some states , the early voting numbers have already cruised past 90 percent of 2016 total voting levels , including several key swing states or states with close Senate races : Montana , Nevada , North Carolina , Florida , Washington , Oregon , Arizona , New Mexico , and Georgia .
In Texas , early voting is even more of a success : Early voting now represents more than 108 percent of 2016 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , the share is more than 110 percent .
It seems likely that 2020 ’ s total voter turnout could be the highest in a century , with some forecasters projecting turnout as high as 65 percent of registered voters casting a ballot .
And the reasons are clear to all — chiefly , the current occupant of the White House .
As Vox ’ s Jen Kirby and Rani Molla put it , “ Enthusiasm among both Democratic and Republican voters is high .
President Donald Trump is the reason : His @ @ @ @ @ @ @ guy , and the other side is extremely motivated to vote him out.
” Voters who wished to avoid a polling place also may have voted with absentee ballots , though those who went to early voting locations hoping to avoid a crowd during a pandemic may have been confronted with long lines .
These numbers are no crystal ball , however .
Nobody knows who is going to win .
There ’ s a strong possibility we won ’ t even know on Tuesday night or Wednesday morning , either .
But @ @ @ @ @ @ @ motivated to make sure their vote is counted .

More than 97 million people have already cast ballots in the 2020 election — an early turnout record that shows this year’s election carries enormous weight with Americans.
In 11 states, the number of votes cast so far in 2020 is at least 90 percent of the total cast in the entire 2016 election.
About 24 hours before polls are set to close on Election Day, the number of votes cast was almost 98 million, about two-thirds of which came via mail-in ballots. The rest of the voters showed up at a polling place to vote in person. The early voting figure is just shy of 71 percent of 2016’s total numbers nationwide.
In some states, the early voting numbers have already cruised past 90 percent of 2016 total voting levels, including several key swing states or states with close Senate races: Montana, Nevada, North Carolina, Florida, Washington, Oregon, Arizona, New Mexico, and Georgia.
In Texas, early voting is even more of a success: Early voting now represents more than 108 percent of 2016’s total number. In Hawaii, the share is more than 110 percent.
It seems likely that 2020’s total voter turnout could be the highest in a century, with some forecasters projecting turnout as high as 65 percent of registered voters casting a ballot. And the reasons are clear to all — chiefly, the current occupant of the White House.
As Vox’s Jen Kirby and Rani Molla put it, “Enthusiasm among both Democratic and Republican voters is high. President Donald Trump is the reason: His supporters are extremely motivated to reelect their guy, and the other side is extremely motivated to vote him out.” Voters who wished to avoid a polling place also may have voted with absentee ballots, though those who went to early voting locations hoping to avoid a crowd during a pandemic may have been confronted with long lines.
These numbers are no crystal ball, however. Nobody knows who is going to win. There’s a strong possibility we won’t even know on Tuesday night or Wednesday morning, either. But it is clear that Americans are highly motivated to make sure their vote is counted.