vox--2020-04-24--Could contact tracing bring the US out of lockdown?

South Korea and the United States reported their first cases of Covid-19 on the same day .
Yet while most Americans remain under stay-at-home orders , many in South Korea are doing what seems unthinkable in the US — returning to their offices .
South Korea has often been touted as rolling out one of the best national responses to the coronavirus , and the country ’ s approach has been comprehensive .
All passengers that arrive at Incheon Airport — South Korea ’ s hub for international flights — receive mandatory temperature checks and must download the country ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ any changes in their symptoms ( or lack thereof ) every single day .
This app is an important part of South Korea ’ s effort at contact tracing : the effort to find and notify every person who comes in contact with someone who tests positive for Covid-19 .
And a few weeks ago , Apple and Google announced that they were developing software that would enable contact tracing apps in the US .
How might this technology change the trajectory of the US coronavirus crisis ?
In this episode of Reset @ @ @ @ @ @ @ News reporter Sharon Begley about how digital contact tracing is our best hope of emerging from lockdown , and why we didn ’ t start working on it sooner .
A lightly edited transcript of their conversation follows .
Subscribe to Reset wherever you get your podcasts , including Apple Podcasts , Google Podcasts , Spotify , and Stitcher .
You can check out our guide to news of the coronavirus outbreak here and listen to other Vox podcasts on the topic here .
There are a lot of ways in which the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in its response to the pandemic .
Is that the case with contact tracing ?
It is the case with contact tracing for the basic reason that experts in contact tracing , and also in infectious disease , have forever believed and argued that contact tracing does not work with a respiratory disease .
And the reason experts told us that contact tracing would not work with respiratory diseases is that respiratory diseases spread too easily — air is a lot easier to come into contact with than someone else ’ s blood @ @ @ @ @ @ @ quickly .
So from the get-go , this country has not even attempted to do serious contact tracing .
We didn ’ t try it in the first cases in the state of Washington .
We didn ’ t try it after cases appeared in California , [ we ] certainly have not tried it since cases appeared on the East Coast .
And in addition , contact tracing is immensely laborious .
You need an army of thousands of people to do it .
But right now , contact tracing is being @ @ @ @ @ @ @ we ’ ll eventually be able to sort of reopen the country .
Why are we seeing this shift in the way that people are talking about this ?
Because of what happened in other countries .
In South Korea , in particular , in Singapore , both of which had very , very early cases , not surprising given their proximity to China , that ’ s what they did .
Those countries did contact tracing .
It worked .
And suddenly that opened the eyes of experts who said , no @ @ @ @ @ @ @ done .
So wait , does that completely change the way that we look at respiratory illnesses like this ?
It really does .
You know , just as with the recognition that face masks actually can help , all sorts of assumptions about respiratory diseases are being rewritten and , in fact , overturned as a result of what we ’ re seeing in this pandemic .
Okay , so , in all the plans that we are seeing to reopen the country , to reopen the United States , how important @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Everybody who has looked at this — academics , officials in other countries — say that this will be the only way that the country can be reopened , that we can have an exit from the very strict social distancing [ and ] physical distancing that we ’ ve had for the last month and a half .
You know , whether it ’ s the governors talking about how to figure this out , testing and contact tracing is at the center of all of those plans .
And the sequence @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , you have to identify people who carry the virus , trace their contacts , you isolate people , and you hope that works .
I can ’ t help but notice that you ’ re not talking about antibody testing .
You ’ re not talking about vaccines .
I guess that ’ s sort of surprising , probably for a lot of people hearing this , that contact tracing and not these future things that we ’ re hoping will happen will be central to this approach .
You know , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ vaccines now is because there ’ s not going to be a vaccine in this calendar year .
As far as serology testing , [ that is ] , the blood tests that identify if somebody has antibodies to this coronavirus , that absolutely can play a role in reopening the economy .
But , you know , let ’ s look at the numbers .
… The country has some 350 million people .
If you ’ re only going to let go back to life , back to work , people @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that ’ s not going to give you the numbers that you need .
The reason you need testing and contact tracing is that you want a whole lot more people to be able to go back to their stores and their workplaces and their factories and be able to safely ride the subway and all of those things .
So it can ’ t be only the blood tests for the antibodies .
Okay , so what do we need to do to implement a successful contact tracing program for Covid-19 , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ here ’ s the problem .
As we were saying earlier in the experts ’ objection to contact tracing for a respiratory virus , it has to be done fast .
On average , to identify a person ’ s contacts — just to identify them , let alone to track them down — takes something like 12 hours of asking , “ Where were you ?
What were you doing ?
What was it like there ?
” So that ’ s an average .
Twelve hours is a really long time @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s a long interview .
That ’ s a long interview .
Probably not sitting in one place for all that time , but going back to the person to say , “ Wait , are you sure you weren ’ t here or there ?
And what about this block of time when you forgot where you were ?
” So it ’ s very time-consuming to do that with just plain old analog human beings .
The estimates are that the United States would need at least 100,000 tracers , possibly @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of course , we ’ re going to pay these people and value them and encourage them .
So , you know , you ’ re probably looking at … upwards of 3.6 billion … dollars just to do that .
And absolutely , it ’ s worth it .
But that ’ s the order of magnitude that you ’ re talking about in terms of effort .
So it sounds like doing contact tracing with human interviewers will be expensive and time-consuming .
And now we ’ re seeing lots of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
So in theory , how could technology help ?
The technology that ’ s being discussed can be basically instantaneous .
The way many of these systems would work is , again , you opt-in .
And the opting in means that … you would … get an alert saying , “ Yes , you came into close contact with someone .
We think you should now isolate yourself for 14 days.
” If you can get through those two weeks without symptoms , then that casual passing by the person did @ @ @ @ @ @ @ done virtually , instantaneously — certainly , you know , faster than human contact tracers .
And the hope is that by doing it that quickly , you can snuff out any transmission chains that might crop up .
Right , because to be clear , it ’ s not just reducing the time of that 12-hour interview .
It ’ s also reducing the time that it takes to contact the people that the person has been in touch with by just making it automated and automatic .
A group at Oxford @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
And they found that if you can accelerate how quickly you find , you diagnose cases , and trace their contacts , then you can ease up on social distancing to a degree that nothing else will enable you to do .
So could a tech solution for contact tracing work in the US in a widespread way ?
So it ’ s always dicey to talk about a technological fix .
But in this case , again , as with so much in Covid-19 , we have other countries that have @ @ @ @ @ @ @ South Korea , they used everything from security camera footage to smartphone tracing .
Israel rolled out a system like this .
What ’ s important to remember is that success does not mean zero cases .
Success means that we do not have another instance where we overwhelm our hospitals and have the horrible situations that we ’ ve all seen , in especially New York hospitals .
Bottom line , you can have way , way less than 100 percent opt-in and still have a really good chance of catching any @ @ @ @ @ @ @ over the current wave .
Every day at Vox , we aim to answer your most important questions and provide you , and our audience around the world , with information that has the power to save lives .
Our mission has never been more vital than it is in this moment : to empower you through understanding .
Vox ’ s work is reaching more people than ever , but our distinctive brand of explanatory journalism takes resources — particularly during a pandemic and an economic downturn .
Your financial contribution will @ @ @ @ @ @ @ will enable our staff to continue to offer free articles , videos , and podcasts at the quality and volume that this moment requires .
Please consider making a contribution to Vox today .

South Korea and the United States reported their first cases of Covid-19 on the same day. Yet while most Americans remain under stay-at-home orders, many in South Korea are doing what seems unthinkable in the US — returning to their offices.
South Korea has often been touted as rolling out one of the best national responses to the coronavirus, and the country’s approach has been comprehensive. All passengers that arrive at Incheon Airport — South Korea’s hub for international flights — receive mandatory temperature checks and must download the country’s coronavirus app, where they report any changes in their symptoms (or lack thereof) every single day.
This app is an important part of South Korea’s effort at contact tracing: the effort to find and notify every person who comes in contact with someone who tests positive for Covid-19. And a few weeks ago, Apple and Google announced that they were developing software that would enable contact tracing apps in the US. How might this technology change the trajectory of the US coronavirus crisis?
In this episode of Reset, host Arielle Duhaime-Ross talks with Stat News reporter Sharon Begley about how digital contact tracing is our best hope of emerging from lockdown, and why we didn’t start working on it sooner.
A lightly edited transcript of their conversation follows.
Subscribe to Reset wherever you get your podcasts, including Apple Podcasts, Google Podcasts, Spotify, and Stitcher. You can check out our guide to news of the coronavirus outbreak here and listen to other Vox podcasts on the topic here.
Arielle Duhaime-Ross
There are a lot of ways in which the US has been sort of playing catch-up in its response to the pandemic. Is that the case with contact tracing?
Sharon Begley
It is the case with contact tracing for the basic reason that experts in contact tracing, and also in infectious disease, have forever believed and argued that contact tracing does not work with a respiratory disease. And the reason experts told us that contact tracing would not work with respiratory diseases is that respiratory diseases spread too easily — air is a lot easier to come into contact with than someone else’s blood — and that they also spread too quickly. So from the get-go, this country has not even attempted to do serious contact tracing. We didn’t try it in the first cases in the state of Washington. We didn’t try it after cases appeared in California, [we] certainly have not tried it since cases appeared on the East Coast. And in addition, contact tracing is immensely laborious. You need an army of thousands of people to do it.
Arielle Duhaime-Ross
But right now, contact tracing is being touted as one of the ways that we’ll eventually be able to sort of reopen the country. Why are we seeing this shift in the way that people are talking about this?
Sharon Begley
Because of what happened in other countries. In South Korea, in particular, in Singapore, both of which had very, very early cases, not surprising given their proximity to China, that’s what they did. Those countries did contact tracing. It worked. And suddenly that opened the eyes of experts who said, no, no, it could never be done.
Arielle Duhaime-Ross
So wait, does that completely change the way that we look at respiratory illnesses like this?
Sharon Begley
It really does. You know, just as with the recognition that face masks actually can help, all sorts of assumptions about respiratory diseases are being rewritten and, in fact, overturned as a result of what we’re seeing in this pandemic.
Arielle Duhaime-Ross
Okay, so, in all the plans that we are seeing to reopen the country, to reopen the United States, how important is contact tracing going to be?
Sharon Begley
Everybody who has looked at this — academics, officials in other countries — say that this will be the only way that the country can be reopened, that we can have an exit from the very strict social distancing [and] physical distancing that we’ve had for the last month and a half. You know, whether it’s the governors talking about how to figure this out, testing and contact tracing is at the center of all of those plans. And the sequence is, test, in other words, you have to identify people who carry the virus, trace their contacts, you isolate people, and you hope that works.
Arielle Duhaime-Ross
I can’t help but notice that you’re not talking about antibody testing. You’re not talking about vaccines. I guess that’s sort of surprising, probably for a lot of people hearing this, that contact tracing and not these future things that we’re hoping will happen will be central to this approach.
Sharon Begley
You know, the reason I’m not emphasizing vaccines now is because there’s not going to be a vaccine in this calendar year. As far as serology testing, [that is], the blood tests that identify if somebody has antibodies to this coronavirus, that absolutely can play a role in reopening the economy. But, you know, let’s look at the numbers. … The country has some 350 million people. If you’re only going to let go back to life, back to work, people who have survived their Covid-19 infection, that’s not going to give you the numbers that you need. The reason you need testing and contact tracing is that you want a whole lot more people to be able to go back to their stores and their workplaces and their factories and be able to safely ride the subway and all of those things. So it can’t be only the blood tests for the antibodies.
Arielle Duhaime-Ross
Okay, so what do we need to do to implement a successful contact tracing program for Covid-19, and what are the obstacles?
Sharon Begley
So here’s the problem. As we were saying earlier in the experts’ objection to contact tracing for a respiratory virus, it has to be done fast. On average, to identify a person’s contacts — just to identify them, let alone to track them down — takes something like 12 hours of asking, “Where were you? What were you doing? What was it like there?” So that’s an average.
Arielle Duhaime-Ross
Twelve hours is a really long time. To be clear, that’s a long interview.
Sharon Begley
That’s a long interview. Probably not sitting in one place for all that time, but going back to the person to say, “Wait, are you sure you weren’t here or there? And what about this block of time when you forgot where you were?” So it’s very time-consuming to do that with just plain old analog human beings. The estimates are that the United States would need at least 100,000 tracers, possibly as many as 300,000. And, of course, we’re going to pay these people and value them and encourage them. So, you know, you’re probably looking at … upwards of 3.6 billion … dollars just to do that. And absolutely, it’s worth it. But that’s the order of magnitude that you’re talking about in terms of effort.
Arielle Duhaime-Ross
So it sounds like doing contact tracing with human interviewers will be expensive and time-consuming. And now we’re seeing lots of attempts to automate this process with technology. So in theory, how could technology help?
Sharon Begley
The technology that’s being discussed can be basically instantaneous. The way many of these systems would work is, again, you opt-in. And the opting in means that … you would … get an alert saying, “Yes, you came into close contact with someone. We think you should now isolate yourself for 14 days.” If you can get through those two weeks without symptoms, then that casual passing by the person did not infect you. That can be done virtually, instantaneously — certainly, you know, faster than human contact tracers. And the hope is that by doing it that quickly, you can snuff out any transmission chains that might crop up.
Arielle Duhaime-Ross
Right, because to be clear, it’s not just reducing the time of that 12-hour interview. It’s also reducing the time that it takes to contact the people that the person has been in touch with by just making it automated and automatic.
Sharon Begley
A group at Oxford university in the UK did model this. And they found that if you can accelerate how quickly you find, you diagnose cases, and trace their contacts, then you can ease up on social distancing to a degree that nothing else will enable you to do.
Arielle Duhaime-Ross
So could a tech solution for contact tracing work in the US in a widespread way?
Sharon Begley
So it’s always dicey to talk about a technological fix. But in this case, again, as with so much in Covid-19, we have other countries that have shown us the way. Singapore, South Korea, they used everything from security camera footage to smartphone tracing. Israel rolled out a system like this. What’s important to remember is that success does not mean zero cases. Success means that we do not have another instance where we overwhelm our hospitals and have the horrible situations that we’ve all seen, in especially New York hospitals. Bottom line, you can have way, way less than 100 percent opt-in and still have a really good chance of catching any incipient new infections after we’re over the current wave.


vox--2020-04-24--A sexual assault allegation against Joe Biden has ignited a firestorm of controversy

A woman who worked in Joe Biden ’ s Senate office filed a criminal complaint with the Washington , DC , police on April 9 , accusing the former vice president of sexually assaulting her in 1993 .
Tara Reade , the former Biden staffer , described the allegation in an interview with podcast host Katie Halper on March 25 .
Reade said Biden pushed her against a wall and penetrated her with his fingers .
When she pulled away , she says , he said he thought she “ liked ” him .
Reade told Business Insider that she @ @ @ @ @ @ @ harassed in the past and “ wanted to make it clear that I would be willing to go under oath or cooperate with any law enforcement regarding it , because it did happen .
Even if it was 26 years ago.
” She also acknowledged in a tweet on April 10 that the statute of limitations had run out on her complaint .
On April 24 , new details emerged in the case : The Intercept reported that Reade ’ s mother had called CNN ’ s Larry King Live in 1993 , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ problems ” with a prominent senator .
When asked to comment on the criminal complaint against Biden , a campaign spokesperson referred Business Insider to deputy campaign manager Kate Bedingfield ’ s previous statement , given on March 27 after the controversy heated up from Halper ’ s podcast : “ Women have a right to tell their story , and reporters have an obligation to rigorously vet those claims .
We encourage them to do so , because these accusations are false.
” Last year , Reade was one of several women @ @ @ @ @ @ @ had kissed or touched them in ways that made them uncomfortable .
At the time , Reade said Biden used to “ put his hand on my shoulder and run his finger up my neck ” when she worked in his Senate office , but she did not accuse Biden of sexual assault .
Reade says she did not speak publicly about her more serious allegation last year , in part , because no one else witnessed the incident , while she says others saw Biden harassing her .
She also says she @ @ @ @ @ @ @ year .
As Ryan Grim reported at the Intercept on March 24 , journalists and others questioned her credibility , pointing out favorable comments she had made about Vladimir Putin in a 2018 Medium post , perhaps implying that she was a Russian plant .
In March , Reade ’ s allegation initially received little coverage outside of left-wing media ( and some media outlets on the right ) .
But the hashtags # IBelieveTara and # TimesUpBiden started to pick up steam on Twitter after Halper ’ s podcast , as many @ @ @ @ @ @ @ attention .
The allegation also inflamed tensions between supporters of Biden and Sen. Bernie Sanders , who , at the time , was losing to Biden in the primaries .
Reade told Vox on March 26 that she initially supported Sen. Elizabeth Warren for president ( and also supported Marianne Williamson ) but now supported Sanders .
( Sanders has since dropped out of the presidential race . )
And her report led to allegations by some that she or her supporters were simply trying to throw the election to Sanders — or @ @ @ @ @ @ @ acknowledged the concern that her allegation could benefit Trump in the general election .
Trump himself has been accused of sexual harassment , assault , or other misconduct by more than 20 women , and is being sued for defamation by two of them .
“ I don ’ t want Trump to be president , ” Reade told Vox .
But , she said , she won ’ t be voting for Biden .
“ If he ’ s my president , I just can ’ t fathom it.
” Multiple women @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that made them uncomfortable Reports of “ creepy ” behavior by Biden , like standing too close to women for photo opportunities , have circulated for years , treated by some as little more than a joke .
But those reports received more serious attention after Lucy Flores , a former candidate for lieutenant governor of Nevada , wrote in a March 2019 essay at The Cut that Biden had kissed her on the back of the head at a campaign event in 2014 .
“ I couldn ’ t move and I @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Flores wrote .
“ I wanted nothing more than to get Biden away from me.
” After that , other women spoke out to report similar experiences .
Amy Lappos , for example , said that at a 2009 fundraiser , Biden touched her face and rubbed noses with her .
And in April , Reade told the Union , a California newspaper , that Biden touched her several times in ways that made her feel uncomfortable , and that her duties in his Senate office were reduced after she refused to serve @ @ @ @ @ @ @ he wanted her there because he liked her legs .
A few days after women began coming forward with reports of inappropriate touching by him , the former vice president issued a statement saying that “ social norms have begun to change ” around people ’ s personal space and that he would be more mindful of boundaries in the future .
Biden did not specifically respond to Reade ’ s allegation , but in a video statement in early April , he said , “ I shake hands , I hug people @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the shoulders and say , ‘ You can do this.
’ ” However , he also said that “ the boundaries of protecting personal space have been reset ” and pledged to change his behavior .
Since then , the allegations by women have not come up much on the debate stage or campaign trail , and Biden is the presumptive nominee to be the Democratic nominee for president this year .
Reade ’ s allegation came back to the fore when Grim reported on its general outline in the Intercept .
Then @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , The Katie Halper Show .
In it , Reade says that in 1993 , when she was in her 20s and working for Biden , another staffer asked her to bring him a gym bag at the US Capitol .
When she did , she says , he pushed her up against a wall in a secluded area , began kissing her , and reached under her skirt to penetrate her with his fingers .
After she pulled away , she says he responded with something along the lines of , “ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ you liked me.
” Reade said Biden also said something that sticks with her today : “ You ’ re nothing to me.
” Those words affected her “ almost more than the assault , ” she said , because she had respected him so much before .
“ It was like an earthquake , ” Reade told Vox in March .
“ I was so excited about this job .
I thought this was my future , and so when that happened I felt , it ’ s like someone pulling the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s statement , the Biden campaign also released a statement in March from Marianne Baker , an executive assistant to Biden from 1982 to 2000 .
“ In all my years working for Senator Biden , I never once witnessed , or heard of , or received , any reports of inappropriate conduct , period — not from Ms. Reade , not from anyone , ” Baker said .
“ These clearly false allegations are in complete contradiction to both the inner workings of our Senate office and to the man I @ @ @ @ @ @ @ almost two decades.
” Reade , for her part , said she did not include the assault accusation when she spoke out last year because the harassment was easier to talk about , in part because others had witnessed it .
“ I wanted to share the whole thing , but at the same time I was too scared , ” she said .
“ I just wasn ’ t quite ready.
” Grim at the Intercept contacted Reade ’ s friend and brother , both of whom say she told them about @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 1993 .
“ Woefully , I did not encourage her to follow up , ” her brother told the Intercept .
“ I wasn ’ t one of her better advocates .
I said let it go , move on , guys are idiots.
” Reade said she also confided in her mother , who died in 2016 .
As previously mentioned , Reade told the Intercept her mother had even called Larry King Live to ask for advice after her daughter left her job with Biden .
On April 24 , Grim @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a call , presumably made by Reade ’ s mother , to the show on August 11 , 1993 .
“ I ’ m wondering what a staffer would do besides go to the press in Washington , ” the caller says .
“ My daughter has just left there , after working for a prominent senator , and could not get through with her problems at all , and the only thing she could have done was go to the press , and she chose not to do it out of respect @ @ @ @ @ @ @ t specifically mention harassment or assault , but as Grim noted , Reade said the transcript “ gelled with her memory ” of the call , which also tracks with her assertion that she told her mother about an experience she had with Biden that would damage his reputation if made public .
Reade decided earlier this year that she wanted to speak publicly about the assault allegation .
She reached out to Time ’ s Up , an anti-harassment organization launched as the Me Too movement rose to prominence , to see @ @ @ @ @ @ @ However , Grim reported , the organization said it could not support her because Biden is a candidate for federal office and doing so could jeopardize its nonprofit status .
The Time ’ s Up Legal Defense Fund , which is administered by the National Women ’ s Law Center , countered that it did offer some help to Reade .
Uma Iyer , the center ’ s vice president of communications , said in a statement to Vox that “ we helped Ms. Reade as much as we could , within the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The organization “ provided her with the information to connect to attorneys and other resources ” as it has done for many others , Iyer said ; however , “ we informed Ms. Reade of our inability to fund legal and PR fees for her due to our 501 ( c ) ( 3 ) status.
” “ The TIME ’ S UP Legal Defense Fund is the first-of-its-kind entity , and above all else , we prioritize survivors and their quest to seek justice – but we can not do that if @ @ @ @ @ @ @ threatened , ” Iyer said .
Unable to get legal help , Reade told Vox , she decided to write about her experience on Medium in January .
She did not state an allegation of sexual assault then , but said that “ I have not told the whole story of what occurred between Joe Biden and myself.
” That led to interest from some smaller media outlets and the interview with Halper , she said .
“ I kind of feel like a weight was lifted off when I did that interview @ @ @ @ @ @ @ I ’ m ready to walk away , and now everyone wants to talk to me.
” Part of the reason Reade sought legal help , she told Vox , was that she faced harassment when she initially came forward last year .
She also faced scrutiny into her background .
In particular , critics pointed to that now-deleted 2018 Medium post in which Reade called Putin “ a compassionate , caring , visionary leader ” and said , “ To President Putin , I say keep your eyes to the beautiful future @ @ @ @ @ @ @ come to see Russia as I do , with eyes of love.
” In the same post , she wrote that she left government work in her 20s in part because “ I love Russia with all my heart ” and “ I could not stand to watch the deception and xenophobia that came from my own American government.
” Reade told Vox that when she wrote the praise of Putin , she had “ watched a bunch of Noam Chomsky ” and was working on a novel set in Russia .
She @ @ @ @ @ @ @ way about Putin since learning more about domestic violence in Russia .
But “ this conversation isn ’ t about Russia , ” she told Vox .
“ Joe Biden wasn ’ t asking me about my feelings about Russia when he had his hands where they weren ’ t supposed to be.
” Some have dismissed Reade ’ s sexual assault accusation because Reade was a Sanders supporter and because it was first publicized by left-wing outlets .
Halper was also a vocal Sanders supporter , and most mainstream news organizations did @ @ @ @ @ @ @ New York Times published an article on April 12 about the allegation .
“ Of course , if it ’ s a choice between Bernie Sanders and Joe Biden , from my perspective , I ’ m going to pick Bernie Sanders , ” Reade told Vox March 26 , and added that Sanders supporters were kind to her when she was harassed online after coming forward last year .
Social media conversation helped bring attention to Reade ’ s story , with # IBelieveTara and # TimesUpBiden trending by the end of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Harper ’ s show .
Overall , the social media reactions could have been broken down into two camps : those who cited her praise of Russia and implied that she or her supporters were working on behalf of Sanders , Trump , or Putin ; and those who cited the need to believe people who come forward to report sexual misconduct .
Reade ’ s report came at a time when Sanders was trailing behind Biden in the primaries and Biden was likely to face Trump in the general election .
Before @ @ @ @ @ @ @ accused him of sexual assault and harassment , and he was caught on tape bragging about his ability to grab women “ by the pussy.
” He was elected anyway .
While Reade is no fan of Trump , she said she is disturbed by the fact that Biden is “ running on a platform of character.
” “ The Uncle Joe thing , I never saw that , ” she said .
“ He was very strong , he was very powerful , and he knew it , and he used his @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Update , April 24 : This article has been updated to include a report by the Intercept regarding a call Reade ’ s mother allegedly made to Larry King Live in 1993 .
Every day at Vox , we aim to answer your most important questions and provide you , and our audience around the world , with information that has the power to save lives .
Our mission has never been more vital than it is in this moment : to empower you through understanding .
Vox ’ s work is reaching @ @ @ @ @ @ @ distinctive brand of explanatory journalism takes resources — particularly during a pandemic and an economic downturn .
Your financial contribution will not constitute a donation , but it will enable our staff to continue to offer free articles , videos , and podcasts at the quality and volume that this moment requires .
Please consider making a contribution to Vox today .

A woman who worked in Joe Biden’s Senate office filed a criminal complaint with the Washington, DC, police on April 9, accusing the former vice president of sexually assaulting her in 1993.
Tara Reade, the former Biden staffer, described the allegation in an interview with podcast host Katie Halper on March 25. Reade said Biden pushed her against a wall and penetrated her with his fingers. When she pulled away, she says, he said he thought she “liked” him.
Reade told Business Insider that she filed the report because she had been harassed in the past and “wanted to make it clear that I would be willing to go under oath or cooperate with any law enforcement regarding it, because it did happen. Even if it was 26 years ago.”
She also acknowledged in a tweet on April 10 that the statute of limitations had run out on her complaint. On April 24, new details emerged in the case: The Intercept reported that Reade’s mother had called CNN’s Larry King Live in 1993, saying that her daughter had experienced “problems” with a prominent senator. Then, on April 27, Business Insider reported that a former neighbor said Reade had told her about the alleged assault in 1995 and 1996. The additional details have reignited controversy around Reade’s allegation, with prominent Democrats coming to Biden’s defense and others arguing that Biden should step aside as the presumptive nominee.
When asked to comment on the criminal complaint against Biden, a campaign spokesperson referred Business Insider to deputy campaign manager Kate Bedingfield’s previous statement, provided March 27 after the controversy heated up from Halper’s podcast: “Women have a right to tell their story, and reporters have an obligation to rigorously vet those claims. We encourage them to do so, because these accusations are false.”
Last year, Reade was one of several women who came forward publicly to say Biden had kissed or touched them in ways that made them uncomfortable. At the time, Reade said Biden used to “put his hand on my shoulder and run his finger up my neck” when she worked in his Senate office, but she did not accuse Biden of sexual assault.
Reade says she did not speak publicly about her more serious allegation last year, in part, because no one else witnessed the incident, while she says others saw Biden harassing her.
She also says she faced online harassment after coming forward last year. As Ryan Grim reported at the Intercept on March 24, journalists and others questioned her credibility, pointing out favorable comments she had made about Vladimir Putin in a 2018 Medium post, perhaps implying that she was a Russian plant.
Read this love fest for Putin by Alexandra Tara Reade.
Is this the same person who just made an accusation against @JoeBiden?
If so — this game’s up.https://t.co/B4CShgbiYp — Richard W. Painter (@RWPUSA) April 4, 2019
In March, Reade’s allegation initially received little coverage outside of left-wing media (and some media outlets on the right). But the hashtags #IBelieveTara and #TimesUpBiden started to pick up steam on Twitter after Halper’s podcast, as many wondered why it was not getting more attention.
One of the only news source to report on @JoeBiden's sexual assault allegations is Yahoo. If you supported the #metoo movement, yet think these allegations are false and "Russian plants", you are putting women down. You're not a feminist #IBelieveTarahttps://t.co/minMJzqy5n — Elliott Crow (@crow_elliott) March 27, 2020
The allegation also inflamed tensions between supporters of Biden and Sen. Bernie Sanders, who, at the time, was losing to Biden in the primaries. Reade told Vox on March 26 that she initially supported Sen. Elizabeth Warren for president (and also supported Marianne Williamson) but now supported Sanders. (Sanders has since dropped out of the presidential race.) And her report led to allegations by some that she or her supporters were simply trying to throw the election to Sanders — or even to President Donald Trump.
Reade acknowledged the concern that her allegation could benefit Trump in the general election. Trump himself has been accused of sexual harassment, assault, or other misconduct by more than 20 women, and is being sued for defamation by two of them.
“I don’t want Trump to be president,” Reade told Vox. But, she said, she won’t be voting for Biden. “If he’s my president, I just can’t fathom it.”
Multiple women have said Biden touched them in ways that made them uncomfortable
Reports of “creepy” behavior by Biden, like standing too close to women for photo opportunities, have circulated for years, treated by some as little more than a joke. But those reports received more serious attention after Lucy Flores, a former candidate for lieutenant governor of Nevada, wrote in a March 2019 essay at The Cut that Biden had kissed her on the back of the head at a campaign event in 2014.
“I couldn’t move and I couldn’t say anything,” Flores wrote. “I wanted nothing more than to get Biden away from me.”
After that, other women spoke out to report similar experiences. Amy Lappos, for example, said that at a 2009 fundraiser, Biden touched her face and rubbed noses with her. And in April, Reade told the Union, a California newspaper, that Biden touched her several times in ways that made her feel uncomfortable, and that her duties in his Senate office were reduced after she refused to serve drinks at an event. She said he wanted her there because he liked her legs.
A few days after women began coming forward with reports of inappropriate touching by him, the former vice president issued a statement saying that “social norms have begun to change” around people’s personal space and that he would be more mindful of boundaries in the future.
Biden did not specifically respond to Reade’s allegation, but in a video statement in early April, he said, “I shake hands, I hug people, I grab men and women by the shoulders and say, ‘You can do this.’” However, he also said that “the boundaries of protecting personal space have been reset” and pledged to change his behavior.
Since then, the allegations by women have not come up much on the debate stage or campaign trail, and Biden is the presumptive Democratic nominee for president this year.
Reade’s allegation came back to the fore when Grim reported on its general outline in the Intercept. Then Halper released her interview on her podcast, The Katie Halper Show. In it, Reade says that in 1993, when she was in her 20s and working for Biden, another staffer asked her to bring him a gym bag at the US Capitol.
When she did, she says, he pushed her up against a wall in a secluded area, began kissing her, and reached under her skirt to penetrate her with his fingers. After she pulled away, she says he responded with something along the lines of, “Come on, man, I heard you liked me.” Reade said Biden also said something that sticks with her today: “You’re nothing to me.”
Those words affected her “almost more than the assault,” she said, because she had respected him so much before.
“It was like an earthquake,” Reade told Vox in March. “I was so excited about this job. I thought this was my future, and so when that happened I felt, it’s like someone pulling the rug out.”
In addition to Bedingfield’s statement, the Biden campaign also released a statement in March from Marianne Baker, an executive assistant to Biden from 1982 to 2000. “In all my years working for Senator Biden, I never once witnessed, or heard of, or received, any reports of inappropriate conduct, period — not from Ms. Reade, not from anyone,” Baker said. “These clearly false allegations are in complete contradiction to both the inner workings of our Senate office and to the man I know and worked so closely with for almost two decades.”
Reade, for her part, said she did not include the assault accusation when she spoke out last year because the harassment was easier to talk about, in part because others had witnessed it.
“I wanted to share the whole thing, but at the same time I was too scared,” she said. “I just wasn’t quite ready.”
Grim at the Intercept contacted Reade’s friend and brother, both of whom say she told them about the alleged sexual assault by Biden in 1993.
“Woefully, I did not encourage her to follow up,” her brother told the Intercept. “I wasn’t one of her better advocates. I said let it go, move on, guys are idiots.”
But earlier this year, Reade decided that she wanted to speak publicly about the assault allegation. She reached out to Time’s Up, an anti-harassment organization launched as the Me Too movement rose to prominence, to see if she could get legal representation. However, Grim reported, the organization said it could not support her because Biden is a candidate for federal office and doing so could jeopardize its nonprofit status.
The Time’s Up Legal Defense Fund, which is administered by the National Women’s Law Center, countered that it did offer some help to Reade. Uma Iyer, the center’s vice president of communications, said in a statement to Vox that “we helped Ms. Reade as much as we could, within the guardrails that necessarily shape our work.” The organization “provided her with the information to connect to attorneys and other resources” as it has done for many others, Iyer said; however, “We informed Ms. Reade of our inability to fund legal and PR fees for her due to our 501(c)(3) status.”
“The TIME’S UP Legal Defense Fund is the first-of-its-kind entity, and above all else, we prioritize survivors and their quest to seek justice – but we cannot do that if our nonprofit status is in any way threatened,” Iyer said.
Unable to get legal help, Reade told Vox, she decided to write about her experience on Medium in January. She did not state an allegation of sexual assault then, but said that “I have not told the whole story of what occurred between Joe Biden and myself.” That led to interest from some smaller media outlets and the interview with Halper, she said. “I kind of feel like a weight was lifted off when I did that interview,” Reade said. “Now I’m ready to walk away, and now everyone wants to talk to me.”
After the Intercept, Halper, and others covered Reade’s story, new details began to emerge. Reade had told the Intercept that she talked about her experience with Biden with her mother, who died in 2016. Reade said her mother had even called Larry King Live to ask for advice after her daughter left her job with Biden. On April 24, Grim reported that a listener had tracked down a call, presumably made by Reade’s mother, to the show on August 11, 1993.
“I’m wondering what a staffer would do besides go to the press in Washington,” the caller says. “My daughter has just left there, after working for a prominent senator, and could not get through with her problems at all, and the only thing she could have done was go to the press, and she chose not to do it out of respect for him.”
The caller doesn’t specifically mention harassment or assault, but as Grim noted, Reade said the transcript “gelled with her memory” of the call, which also tracks with her assertion that she told her mother about an experience she had with Biden that would damage his reputation if made public.
Then, on April 27, Business Insider reported on accounts by two more people who said Reade told them about her experiences with Biden in the 1990s. Former co-worker Lorraine Sanchez told Business Insider that she recalled Reade saying, in the mid-90s, that her former boss in Washington had sexually harassed her.
Meanwhile, Lynda LaCasse, Reade’s former neighbor, told Business Insider that in 1995 or 1996, Reade confided that she had been sexually assaulted by Joe Biden. “This happened, and I know it did because I remember talking about it,” LaCasse said.
The new details have inspired renewed attention to Reade’s story. Many in the Democratic Party, including Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand and former Georgia gubernatorial candidate Stacey Abrams, have pledged their support for Biden. Others, meanwhile, have stepped up their criticism of the presumptive nominee, sharing their disapproval with the hashtag #DropOutBiden.
The GOP is already weaponzing Biden’s unanswered rape allegations, and evidence of his decline.
Many partisan Democrats have chosen to ignore those issues.
That might have worked in partisan primaries, but ensures a Trump victory in November.
We can’t risk that. #DropOutBiden https://t.co/xCD5xxXJfh — Shahid Buttar for Congress (@ShahidForChange) April 26, 2020
Mainstream media initially did not cover Reade’s assault allegation
Part of the reason Reade sought legal help, she told Vox, was that she faced harassment when she initially came forward last year. She also faced scrutiny into her background. In particular, critics pointed to that now-deleted 2018 Medium post in which Reade called Putin “a compassionate, caring, visionary leader” and said, “To President Putin, I say keep your eyes to the beautiful future and maybe, just maybe America will come to see Russia as I do, with eyes of love.”
In the same post, she wrote that she left government work in her 20s in part because “I love Russia with all my heart” and “I could not stand to watch the deception and xenophobia that came from my own American government.”
Reade told Vox that when she wrote the praise of Putin, she had “watched a bunch of Noam Chomsky” and was working on a novel set in Russia. She says she no longer feels the same way about Putin since learning more about domestic violence in Russia.
But “this conversation isn’t about Russia,” she told Vox. “Joe Biden wasn’t asking me about my feelings about Russia when he had his hands where they weren’t supposed to be.”
Some have dismissed Reade’s sexual assault accusation because Reade was a Sanders supporter and because it was first publicized by left-wing outlets. Halper was also a vocal Sanders supporter, and most mainstream news organizations did not initially cover the story, although some had conducted reporting in 2019 on Reade’s harassment claims. The New York Times and the Washington Post published articles on April 12, 2020, about the allegation.
“Of course, if it’s a choice between Bernie Sanders and Joe Biden, from my perspective, I’m going to pick Bernie Sanders,” Reade told Vox March 26, and added that Sanders supporters were kind to her when she was harassed online after coming forward last year.
Social media conversation helped bring attention to Reade’s story, with #IBelieveTara and #TimesUpBiden trending by the end of the week in which she appeared on Harper’s show. Overall, the social media reactions could have been broken down into two camps: those who cited her praise of Russia and implied that she or her supporters were working on behalf of Sanders, Trump, or Putin; and those who cited the need to believe people who come forward to report sexual misconduct.
Still time to vote for the non-creepy, non-harassing Presidential candidate. #TimesUpBiden https://t.co/NSLJ6RlJr2 — Prerna Lal (@prernaplal) March 27, 2020
Reade’s report came at a time when Sanders was trailing behind Biden in the primaries and Biden was likely to face Trump in the general election. Before Trump was elected, numerous women had accused him of sexual assault and harassment, and he was caught on tape bragging about his ability to grab women “by the pussy.” He was elected anyway.
While Reade is no fan of Trump, she said she is disturbed by the fact that Biden is “running on a platform of character.”
“The Uncle Joe thing, I never saw that,” she said. “He was very strong, he was very powerful, and he knew it, and he used his power to get what he wanted.”


vox--2020-04-24--FreedomWorks is supporting the anti-shutdown protests — and applying for government funding

FreedomWorks , a conservative-leaning organization best known for its support of the Tea Party movement and its longtime opposition to government bailouts , has applied for a Small Business Administration loan through the Paycheck Protection Program , Congress ’ s emergency response to the economic downturn .
The loan is to support the group ’ s foundation arm .
As first reported in the New York Times , nonprofit groups are permitted to apply for SBA loans intended to prop up struggling businesses in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic .
Those nonprofit groups include the FreedomWorks Foundation .
The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ saying , “ I would love someone to give us free cash.
” A provision in the legislation , which socially conservative organizations recommended to Republican lawmakers , made clear that certain nonprofit groups could apply as well .
The provision opened the door for taxpayer funding to subsidize well-connected organizations that are part of the political fray in an election year .
And at least a few groups — on both sides of the political spectrum — decided to apply , so far with mixed results .
The Congressional Progressive Caucus Center @ @ @ @ @ @ @ loan is awaiting resolution , as is FreedomWorks Foundation ’ s request for $ 300,000 , according to officials at the groups .
FreedomWorks has long opposed federal bailouts , describing the Emergency Economic Stabilization Act of 2008 as “ unconstitutional.
” In response to the passage of the Phase 3.5 bill earlier this week , FreedomWorks ’ Jason Pye said , “ The line has long been crossed .
No more spending .
Period .
At this point , we should be focused on reopening the economy and getting Americans back to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ this week , FreedomWorks is connected to many of the anti-stay-at-home-order protests taking place across the country .
For example , in Wisconsin , the main anti-shutdown group , Open Wisconsin Now , was organized by the Committee to Unleash Prosperity and by FreedomWorks .
While FreedomWorks is best known for the actions taken by the group ’ s political side , the FreedomWorks Foundation — aimed , according to its website , at “ educat [ ing ] and empower [ ing ] Americans with the principles of individual liberty , small @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is eligible for an SBA loan .
According to its 2018 990 , the FreedomWorks Foundation had roughly $ 1.1 million in total assets at the end of 2018 .
Brandon , the FreedomWorks president , told me the group chose to apply for the loan because “ it ’ s responsible to explore all options.
” “ We had to cancel our annual fundraiser because of the shutdowns , and that is [ a ] big blow to our fundraising , ” Brandon said over text message .
“ My quote [ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ out of context and I was being sarcastic since we will not get that opportunity for our fundraiser until next year.
” He reiterated that only the Foundation would receive PPP support and said , “ I think it ’ s responsible to explore all options .
We have no idea how long these shutdowns will last .
We ’ re in a good position now with reserve funds , but I have no idea what the world looks like in six months if the lockdowns continue.
” I asked him if he @ @ @ @ @ @ @ opposition to government bailouts and their decision to apply for and take an SBA loan .
He said , “ No , ” adding , “ It ’ s like when your land gets taken , you get compensation .
It ’ s a takings issue .
The moral hazard is when you get bailed out for negligent behavior.
” Every day at Vox , we aim to answer your most important questions and provide you , and our audience around the world , with information that has the power to save lives @ @ @ @ @ @ @ vital than it is in this moment : to empower you through understanding .
Vox ’ s work is reaching more people than ever , but our distinctive brand of explanatory journalism takes resources — particularly during a pandemic and an economic downturn .
Your financial contribution will not constitute a donation , but it will enable our staff to continue to offer free articles , videos , and podcasts at the quality and volume that this moment requires .
Please consider making a contribution to Vox today .

FreedomWorks, a conservative-leaning organization best known for its support of the Tea Party movement and its longtime opposition to government bailouts, has applied for a Small Business Administration loan through the Paycheck Protection Program, Congress’s emergency response to the economic downturn.
The loan is to support the group’s foundation arm.
As first reported in the New York Times, nonprofit groups are permitted to apply for SBA loans intended to prop up struggling businesses in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic. Those nonprofit groups include the FreedomWorks Foundation. The Times quoted FreedomWorks President Adam Brandon as saying, “I would love someone to give us free cash.”
A provision in the legislation, which socially conservative organizations recommended to Republican lawmakers, made clear that certain nonprofit groups could apply as well. The provision opened the door for taxpayer funding to subsidize well-connected organizations that are part of the political fray in an election year. And at least a few groups — on both sides of the political spectrum — decided to apply, so far with mixed results. The Congressional Progressive Caucus Center’s application for a $160,000 loan is awaiting resolution, as is FreedomWorks Foundation’s request for $300,000, according to officials at the groups.
FreedomWorks has long opposed federal bailouts, describing the Emergency Economic Stabilization Act of 2008 as “unconstitutional.” In response to the passage of the Phase 3.5 bill earlier this week, FreedomWorks’ Jason Pye said, “The line has long been crossed. No more spending. Period. At this point, we should be focused on reopening the economy and getting Americans back to work.”
And as I reported earlier this week, FreedomWorks is connected to many of the anti-stay-at-home-order protests taking place across the country. For example, in Wisconsin, the main anti-shutdown group, Open Wisconsin Now, was organized by the Committee to Unleash Prosperity and by FreedomWorks.
While FreedomWorks is best known for the actions taken by the group’s political side, the FreedomWorks Foundation — aimed, according to its website, at “educat[ing] and empower[ing] Americans with the principles of individual liberty, small government, and free markets” — is eligible for an SBA loan.
According to its 2018 990, the FreedomWorks Foundation had roughly $1.1 million in total assets at the end of 2018. Brandon, the FreedomWorks president, told me the group chose to apply for the loan because “it’s responsible to explore all options.”
“We had to cancel our annual fundraiser because of the shutdowns, and that is [a] big blow to our fundraising,” Brandon said over text message. “My quote [in the New York Times] was out of context and I was being sarcastic since we will not get that opportunity for our fundraiser until next year.”
He reiterated that only the Foundation would receive PPP support and said, “I think it’s responsible to explore all options. We have no idea how long these shutdowns will last. We’re in a good position now with reserve funds, but I have no idea what the world looks like in six months if the lockdowns continue.”
I asked him if he saw any contradiction between FreedomWorks’ previous opposition to government bailouts and their decision to apply for and take an SBA loan. He said, “No,” adding, “It’s like when your land gets taken, you get compensation. It’s a takings issue. The moral hazard is when you get bailed out for negligent behavior.”


vox--2020-04-24--Polls show Biden leading Trump in most battleground states

Former Vice President Joe Biden is leading President Donald Trump in multiple presidential polls in battleground states amid the US coronavirus crisis .
Even though Biden hasn ’ t gotten as much of the national spotlight as Trump , or even some governors , in the age of Covid-19 , these polls suggest it might not matter much .
Biden is ahead in most surveys conducted in states where Trump won in 2016 — states that will likely be key to a Democratic victory in November .
While Trump is on television every day talking about the country ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ has kept a much lower profile .
Attention isn ’ t everything ; Trump ’ s handling of the coronavirus is not doing his approval rating many favors .
Some recent polls have shown respondents , including independents , saying they disapprove of how Trump has handled the crisis so far .
Trump badly needs independent voters in order to win in November .
The recent polls could suggest that Trump ’ s high-profile coronavirus response is hurting his poll numbers rather than helping them .
And even though Biden is largely confined @ @ @ @ @ @ @ do rallies or in-person fundraisers , his comparatively low profile isn ’ t hurting him — yet .
“ Trump is dominating the news in the midst of a crisis , but he is not using the platform he has to materially improve his position in the horse race , ” said Kyle Kondik , managing editor of Sabato ’ s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics .
“ If Trump were cutting into Biden ’ s national lead and consistently leading in the key states that won him @ @ @ @ @ @ @ be warranted .
But that is not what is happening.
” A recent New York Times analysis of 2016 and 2020 polls showed that Biden and Trump each have areas of strengths and weaknesses : Trump is doing better with nonwhite voters than he did in 2016 , while Biden is doing better with women than Hillary Clinton did in 2016 .
Biden is also surging among older voters , which could be especially troubling for Trump ; they ’ re a valuable group because they turn out to vote reliably .
Of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ us with a snapshot in time .
We still have seven months of what ’ s sure to be a knives-out campaign between Biden and Trump .
Given the coronavirus , we have no idea what that campaign will look like .
And as the incumbent , Trump already has a significant war chest and fundraising advantage .
“ Two things can be true at the same time .
Biden has a lead outside the margin of error , both nationally and in a lot of key battleground states , ” said elections @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the Cook Political Report .
“ But Trump , unlike 2016 , has a financial infrastructure head start that could help him define the alternative in even more sophisticated ways.
” What the latest batch of battleground polls say Biden leads Trump by almost 6 percentage points in the latest RealClearPolitics polling average , but there ’ s been a deluge of recent polls from battleground states with some interesting findings as well .
Here are some of the most noteworthy : • Fox News polled voters in Florida , Michigan , and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ margin of error of 3 percentage points .
When voters were asked who they ’ d vote for if the election were held today , Biden led in all three states , albeit more narrowly in Florida .
He topped Trump 50 to 42 percent in Pennsylvania , 49 to 41 percent in Michigan , and 46 to 43 percent in Florida ( which falls within the poll ’ s margin of error ) .
In all three states , Biden owes his lead to women voters , leading Trump by 12 percentage @ @ @ @ @ @ @ percentage points in Michigan and Pennsylvania .
• A Reuters poll of voters in Michigan , Pennsylvania , and Wisconsin from April 15-20 , with a 5-percentage-point margin of error , also asked who voters would support if the election were held today .
Biden led Trump 46 to 38 percent in Michigan , 46 to 40 percent in Pennsylvania , and 43 to 40 percent in Wisconsin ( again , within the margin of error ) .
• A Quinnipiac University poll of Florida voters conducted from April 16-20 with a 2.6-percentage-point @ @ @ @ @ @ @ slight 46 to 42 percent lead over Trump .
Among Florida independents , Biden ’ s lead grew to 7 percentage points , leading Trump 44 to 37 percent .
• Two national polls conducted in mid-April , one by the Economist/YouGov and the other by NBC News and the Wall Street Journal , both found Biden leading Trump by 6 and 7 percentage points , respectively .
There are some important takeaways from these polls .
Even with record unemployment and a recession , Trump isn ’ t being judged as harshly @ @ @ @ @ @ @ his handling of the coronavirus .
The Fox poll in Michigan found that 59 percent of voters surveyed said the president ’ s response to the coronavirus was too slow , compared with 38 percent who said it was appropriate .
And Fox ’ s Florida poll found 55 percent of respondents agreed Trump ’ s coronavirus response was too slow , compared with 41 percent who said it was appropriate .
Trump is still getting decent marks for his handling of the economy .
The RealClearPolitics average of his economic approval rating @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s booming economy is gone , and individual states and businesses aren ’ t opening up as soon as he would like , spelling uncertainty .
“ Voters are not holding the economic downturn against him because they view this as an unfortunate turn of world events , ” said Wasserman .
“ Where things could go off the rails for Republicans and the president is if we begin seeing a massive quantity of stories about government dysfunction in delivering aid to entities who need it.
” For another thing , polls @ @ @ @ @ @ @ — Democrat and Republican alike — think America ’ s social distancing measures are a responsible way to deal with the coronavirus and should continue .
That ’ s at odds with some of the president ’ s messaging , including tweets to encouraging residents of different states to “ liberate.
” Sure , Trump is getting much more press and exposure than Biden .
But it ’ s definitely not all good press ; for instance , the president has drawn criticism for his Thursday speculation that potential coronavirus cures could involve @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that is harmful and should not be done ) .
“ Just because Trump gets way more attention does not mean that the attention is good for his position , ” said Kondik .
“ Trump dominating the news might actually make it even likelier that voters will see the election as an up or down vote on him.
” The general election hasn ’ t kicked off in earnest yet We still have a long way to go until the general election .
Just because Biden has an edge now doesn ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ throughout the summer and fall .
Even though it doesn ’ t appear to be hurting him now , at least one poll showed that a plurality of voters don ’ t really know what Biden has been saying about the coronavirus .
The NBC/Wall Street Journal poll conducted in mid-April showed that 42 percent weren ’ t aware of Biden ’ s coronavirus statements or didn ’ t have an opinion about his response , compared with 26 percent who said they trusted Biden when it comes to the coronavirus and 29 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
So far , Biden is getting along fine filming interviews , Zoom town halls , and fundraisers from his home .
And we ’ re still months away from a possible Democratic National Convention , though it ’ s uncertain whether it will even take place .
But at this point , Biden is the presumptive nominee .
If his message isn ’ t getting through to voters , he might want to rethink what will , Wasserman said .
“ For most voters , Biden is more of a concept than @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ” he said .
“ Biden ’ s campaign to date has been themed ‘ battle for the soul of the nation.
’ The voters who are going to decide the election don ’ t want a battle for the soul of the nation as much as they want a battle for a functional federal government.
” Every day at Vox , we aim to answer your most important questions and provide you , and our audience around the world , with information that has the power to save lives .
Our mission @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is in this moment : to empower you through understanding .
Vox ’ s work is reaching more people than ever , but our distinctive brand of explanatory journalism takes resources — particularly during a pandemic and an economic downturn .
Your financial contribution will not constitute a donation , but it will enable our staff to continue to offer free articles , videos , and podcasts at the quality and volume that this moment requires .
Please consider making a contribution to Vox today .

Former Vice President Joe Biden is leading President Donald Trump in multiple presidential polls in battleground states amid the US coronavirus crisis.
Even though Biden hasn’t gotten as much of the national spotlight as Trump, or even some governors, in the age of Covid-19, these polls suggest it might not matter much. Biden is ahead in most surveys conducted in states where Trump won in 2016 — states that will likely be key to a Democratic victory in November.
While Trump is on television every day talking about the country’s response to the coronavirus pandemic, Biden has kept a much lower profile. Attention isn’t everything; Trump’s handling of the coronavirus is not doing his approval rating many favors. Some recent polls have shown respondents, including independents, saying they disapprove of how Trump has handled the crisis so far. Trump badly needs independent voters in order to win in November.
The recent polls could suggest that Trump’s high-profile coronavirus response is hurting his poll numbers rather than helping them. And even though Biden is largely confined to his house and can’t do rallies or in-person fundraisers, his comparatively low profile isn’t hurting him — yet.
“Trump is dominating the news in the midst of a crisis, but he is not using the platform he has to materially improve his position in the horse race,” said Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics. “If Trump were cutting into Biden’s national lead and consistently leading in the key states that won him the White House, Democratic concern would be warranted. But that is not what is happening.”
A recent New York Times analysis of 2016 and 2020 polls showed that Biden and Trump each have areas of strengths and weaknesses: Trump is doing better with nonwhite voters than he did in 2016, while Biden is doing better with women than Hillary Clinton did in 2016. Biden is also surging among older voters, which could be especially troubling for Trump; they’re a valuable group because they turn out to vote reliably.
Of course, these polling results merely provide a snapshot in time. There are still seven months of what’s sure to be a knives-out campaign between Biden and Trump. Given the coronavirus, it’s unknown what that campaign will look like. And as the incumbent, Trump already has a significant war chest and fundraising advantage.
“Two things can be true at the same time. Biden has a lead outside the margin of error, both nationally and in a lot of key battleground states,” said elections analyst Dave Wasserman, House editor for the Cook Political Report. “But Trump, unlike 2016, has a financial infrastructure head start that could help him define the alternative in even more sophisticated ways.”
What the latest batch of battleground polls say
Biden leads Trump by almost 6 percentage points in the latest RealClearPolitics polling average, but there’s been a deluge of recent polls from battleground states with some interesting findings as well.
Here are some of the most noteworthy:
Fox News polled voters in Florida, Michigan, and Pennsylvania from April 18 to 21, with a margin of error of 3 percentage points. When voters were asked who they’d vote for if the election were held today, Biden led in all three states, albeit more narrowly in Florida. He topped Trump 50 to 42 percent in Pennsylvania, 49 to 41 percent in Michigan, and 46 to 43 percent in Florida (which falls within the poll’s margin of error). In all three states, Biden owes his lead to women voters, leading Trump by 12 percentage points in Florida and by roughly 20 percentage points in Michigan and Pennsylvania.
A Reuters poll of voters in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin from April 15 to 20, with a 5-percentage-point margin of error, also asked who voters would support if the election were held today. Biden led Trump 46 to 38 percent in Michigan, 46 to 40 percent in Pennsylvania, and 43 to 40 percent in Wisconsin (again, within the margin of error).
A Quinnipiac University poll of Florida voters conducted from April 16 to 20 with a 2.6-percentage-point margin of error found Biden with a slight 46 to 42 percent lead over Trump. Among Florida independents, Biden’s lead grew to 7 percentage points, leading Trump 44 to 37 percent.
Two national polls conducted in mid-April, one by the Economist/YouGov and the other by NBC News and the Wall Street Journal, both found Biden leading Trump by 6 and 7 percentage points, respectively.
There are some important takeaways from these polls. Even with record unemployment and a recession, Trump isn’t being judged as harshly on the economy as he is for his handling of the coronavirus. The Fox poll in Michigan found that 59 percent of voters surveyed said the president’s response to the coronavirus was too slow, compared with 38 percent who said it was appropriate. And Fox’s Florida poll found 55 percent of respondents agreed Trump’s coronavirus response was too slow, compared with 41 percent who said it was appropriate.
Trump is still getting decent marks for his handling of the economy. The RealClearPolitics average of his economic approval rating shows it holding steady. But Trump’s booming economy is gone, and individual states and businesses aren’t opening up as soon as he would like, spelling uncertainty.
“Voters are not holding the economic downturn against him because they view this as an unfortunate turn of world events,” said Wasserman. “Where things could go off the rails for Republicans and the president is if we begin seeing a massive quantity of stories about government dysfunction in delivering aid to entities who need it.”
For another thing, polls show that the vast majority of Americans — Democrat and Republican alike — think America’s social distancing measures are a responsible way to deal with the coronavirus and should continue. That’s at odds with some of the president’s messaging, including tweets to encouraging residents of different states to “liberate.”
Sure, Trump is getting much more press and exposure than Biden. But it’s definitely not all good press; for instance, the president has drawn criticism for his Thursday speculation that potential coronavirus cures could involve injecting disinfectants into the body (something that is harmful and should not be done).
“Just because Trump gets way more attention does not mean that the attention is good for his position,” said Kondik. “Trump dominating the news might actually make it even likelier that voters will see the election as an up or down vote on him.”
The general election hasn’t kicked off in earnest yet
There’s still a long way to go until the general election. Just because Biden has an edge now doesn’t mean he’ll maintain it throughout the summer and fall.
Even though it doesn’t appear to be hurting him now, at least one poll showed that a plurality of voters don’t really know what Biden has been saying about the coronavirus. The NBC/Wall Street Journal poll conducted in mid-April showed that 42 percent weren’t aware of Biden’s coronavirus statements or didn’t have an opinion about his response, compared with 26 percent who said they trusted Biden when it comes to the coronavirus and 29 percent who said they didn’t.
So far, Biden is getting along fine filming interviews, Zoom town halls, and fundraisers from his home. And a possible Democratic National Convention is still months away, though it’s uncertain whether it will even take place. But at this point, Biden is the presumptive nominee. If his message isn’t getting through to voters, he might want to rethink what will, Wasserman said.
“For most voters, Biden is more of a concept than a candidate with a concrete message,” he said. “Biden’s campaign to date has been themed ‘battle for the soul of the nation.’ The voters who are going to decide the election don’t want a battle for the soul of the nation as much as they want a battle for a functional federal government.”


vox--2020-04-24--Why the worst fears about Florida’s Covid-19 outbreak haven’t been realized (so far)

A month or so ago , Florida seemed primed to be the next epicenter of the coronavirus outbreak in America .
Pictures of spring breakers at the beach evoked fears of a young army of super spreaders .
The state ’ s population — more than one in five are 65 or older , the highest share in the country — seemed particularly susceptible to a virus that is more dangerous to seniors .
Gov .
Ron DeSantis dragged his feet before finally issuing a statewide stay-at-home order on April 1 .
Yet today , public health experts are conspicuously @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Nobody is declaring victory yet , not with the lag in reporting new positive cases because of testing delays .
But there is some glimmer of hope .
Why , given everything we know and don ’ t know about this disease , does Florida seem to largely have been spared ( at least so far ) ?
As Thomas Hladish , a research scientist at the University of Florida ’ s Emerging Pathogens Institute , put it to me , the Florida outbreak is “ a puzzle that still has to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Florida had the eighth-most coronavirus cases as of April 24 .
It has the third-most people , so if you adjust for population , Florida slides all the way down to 18th in Covid-19 cases per capita , according to tabulations from USA Today last week .
The important indicators — daily new cases and deaths — haven ’ t totally taken a turn for the better yet , but they don ’ t appear to be getting dramatically worse either .
“ It looks to me like we are not really declining @ @ @ @ @ @ @ re on a plateau , ” Hladish said , adding the Florida outbreak was “ clearly not growing exponentially.
” To account some for the lag in reporting delays , let ’ s go back a couple of weeks to see how Covid-19 is trending in the Sunshine State .
On April 13 , there were 995 new cases reported .
On April 20 , there were 763 .
There were 41 deaths on April 13 and 38 on April 20 .
The high point for new cases was April 3 ; for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Even allowing for imperfect reporting , Florida does not seem to be experiencing exponential growth like we saw in New York City .
It is testing at an average rate , ranking 20th in tests per million people .
So while a fair number of cases could be being missed , the state is not an outlier by any means in its ability to track the disease .
Jerne Shapiro , a lecturer at the University of Florida ’ s epidemiology department , summarized her feelings like this : “ I am @ @ @ @ @ @ @ those trendlines.
” So why haven ’ t our worst fears for Florida come to pass ?
With one more caution that things could still break bad in the coming days and weeks , let ’ s run through a few of the theories I went over with public health experts in the state .
Every expert I talked to cited social distancing , first and foremost , as the best explanation for the seeming plateau of Covid-19 cases in Florida .
“ We ’ re doing a really good job of social @ @ @ @ @ @ @ People are taking it seriously , and that allows us to slow the spread of the disease.
” Gary Wang , chief of the UF College of Medicine ’ s infectious disease and global health division , was only willing to cite one thing to explain the Florida trends : “ good social distancing.
” As it turns out , news coverage might have given a misleading picture of how Floridians were actually responding to the coronavirus threat .
According to Google ’ s mobility reports , Florida is actually outperforming the US @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the tech company is tracking .
Retail visits are down 49 percent ( 45 percent across the US ) .
Trips to grocery stores and pharmacies have dropped 20 percent ( 7 percent US average ) , and people are going to parks less ( down 54 percent versus 16 percent nationwide ) .
Though DeSantis was reluctant to issue a statewide stay-at-home order , many localities had already taken that critical step before he came around on April 1 .
Miami-Dade and Broward counties had already urged residents to stay home by @ @ @ @ @ @ @ benefited from the precautions being taken in other states , which limited travel to this tourism-dependent state .
“ That ’ s been better for Covid-19 , though it ’ s not been great for our economy , ” Cindy Prins , assistant dean at UF ’ s College of Public Health and an epidemiology professor , told me .
“ People got the message early on to protect themselves.
” Florida has important structural advantages for social distancing , too One thing I think is often overlooked in the conversations about social @ @ @ @ @ @ @ has at least two obvious advantages over somewhere like New York when it comes to keeping one ’ s distance : More people live in single-family homes , and more people travel by car than public transportation .
Owner-occupied homes are a useful proxy for single-family households .
Higher rates of ownership generally translate to more people living in a standalone house , while more rentals typically mean more people living in multi-unit facilities .
Per census data , the owner-occupied housing rate in Florida is 65 percent , while in New York @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
( For all of New York state , it ’ s about 54 percent . )
The number of people per household is almost identical between the two places , so the difference is really in living situation .
“ Even in some of our more urban areas , we don ’ t have the population density that you have in New York , ” Prins said .
“ Higher population density , you ’ re always more likely to be exposed .
You ’ re encountering more people and more at @ @ @ @ @ @ @ apartment building , Hladish said , “ you can ’ t help the fact you ’ re touching the same elevator buttons or the same handrails.
” Some recent studies have suggested public transportation was also an important vector in New York , though others have cast doubt on that theory .
Regardless , it is undeniable that Floridians find themselves in their cars a lot more than on mass transit .
In 2013 , nearly 80 percent of people in Florida commuted alone in their car , truck , or van .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ a little over 50 percent , while 28 percent were commuting via public transportation .
In Florida , just 2 percent of people get to work by bus or subway .
“ It ’ s a lot easier to stay away from your neighbors here , ” Hladish says .
So while New Yorkers and Floridians might be equally committed to social distancing — Google ’ s mobility reports show similar trends — the latter group might simply find it easier to do .
“ It ’ s not that Floridians cared more @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Hladish says .
“ They may have simply been in a better position to take initiative at the individual level.
” One unknown : how much humidity and temperature helped or didn ’ t help Given all the recent debate about how much higher temperatures or humidity might limit the coronavirus ’ s spread , or not , we would be remiss not to address it in the country ’ s hottest and most humid states .
As Shapiro pointed out , Florida has already experienced 90-plus-degree days .
It ’ s possible @ @ @ @ @ @ @ but not in the way you might think .
In general , the experts I talked to were unpersuaded that heat or humidity would explain Florida ’ s relatively mild coronavirus outbreak thus far .
“ I don ’ t see that temperature and humidity would really have any effect .
Even if they have one , I don ’ t think we would see it , ” Prins said .
“ It ’ s just too easy for it to spread right now .
We have too large a susceptible population.
” @ @ @ @ @ @ @ while climate factors might have some limited effect on the virus , “ it is extremely unlikely that the spread of [ Covid-19 ] would slow down in the USA or Europe , due to environmental factors.
” Hladish agreed that he didn ’ t think heat and humidity on their own would be a big factor .
But he did raise the possibility that warmer weather makes it easier for people to get outside — and get away from other people — which matters because the virus can spread more easily in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ think the behavioral effects of weather are more likely to be a factor , ” he said .
“ In Florida , in many parts of the state , you can go outside and be away from other people.
” Hladish added that was actually part of the reason he wasn ’ t particularly concerned about reopening beaches .
From an epidemiological perspective , it would be best to keep them closed .
But if something is going to open , as state leaders are insisting , then beaches might be better than @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to do something , and I think this is relatively low risk , ” Hladish said .
“ I have a hard time imagining there ’ s a lot of transmission happening at the beach.
” Though the virus seems to spread much more indoors , his concern was more that the people who are rushing out to the beaches are also engaging in other risky behaviors that could lead to the virus spreading .
“ I think the bigger concern is there are a whole lot of people who just don ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , ” he said .
Florida is seeing encouraging Covid-19 trends — but it ’ s not over yet So social distancing , and Florida ’ s structural advantages in social distancing , seems like the most likely explanation for the plateauing outbreak there .
The weather may be playing some marginal role , but the state can ’ t depend on its climate alone to save it from the coronavirus .
And there was probably a bit of luck , too : As Vox ’ s German Lopez explained , some of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ matter of when the virus showed up there .
But every expert I spoke with emphasized , again and again , that Florida shouldn ’ t rest easy yet .
“ Social distancing has been working , but we should not conclude that we ’ re declining yet , ” Hladish said .
The test reporting lags are one cause for concern .
The consensus seems to be that states should see two weeks of declining deaths and cases , at a minimum , before they start to think about any plans to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ We have to be very cautious thinking that yesterday ’ s number of cases is a trend , ” Prins said .
“ It ’ s not yet.
” If social distancing is relaxed too quickly , the coronavirus could come roaring back .
Public health experts worry that politicians will simply look at data visualizations , see a flattened curve , and conclude it ’ s safe for life to go back to normal .
Hladish isn ’ t too worried about beaches reopening .
If there is an effect , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ lead to an explosion of cases .
But he does add , as a word of warning : “ I do think that would happen if we ended the lockdowns.
” This story appears in VoxCare , a newsletter from Vox on the latest twists and turns in America ’ s health care debate .
Sign up to get VoxCare in your inbox along with more health care stats and news .
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Our mission has never been more vital than it is in this moment : to empower you through understanding .
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A month or so ago, Florida seemed primed to be the next epicenter of the coronavirus outbreak in America.
Pictures of spring breakers at the beach evoked fears of a young army of super spreaders. The state’s population — more than one in five are 65 or older, the highest share in the country — seemed particularly susceptible to a virus that is more dangerous to seniors. Gov. Ron DeSantis dragged his feet before finally issuing a statewide stay-at-home order on April 1.
Yet today, public health experts are conspicuously sanguine about the trendlines in the state. Nobody is declaring victory yet, not with the lag in reporting new positive cases because of testing delays. But there is some glimmer of hope. Why, given everything we know and don’t know about this disease, does Florida seem to largely have been spared (at least so far)?
As Thomas Hladish, a research scientist at the University of Florida’s Emerging Pathogens Institute, put it to me, the Florida outbreak is “a puzzle that still has to be explained.”
In raw totals, Florida had the eighth-most coronavirus cases as of April 24. It has the third-most people, so if you adjust for population, Florida slides all the way down to 18th in Covid-19 cases per capita, according to tabulations from USA Today last week.
The important indicators — daily new cases and deaths — haven’t totally taken a turn for the better yet, but they don’t appear to be getting dramatically worse either.
“It looks to me like we are not really declining at this point, but we’re on a plateau,” Hladish said, adding the Florida outbreak was “clearly not growing exponentially.”
To account for some of the lag in reporting delays, let’s go back a couple of weeks to see how Covid-19 is trending in the Sunshine State.
On April 13, there were 995 new cases reported. On April 20, there were 763. There were 41 deaths on April 13 and 38 on April 20. The high point for new cases was April 3; for daily deaths, it was April 6. Even allowing for imperfect reporting, Florida does not seem to be experiencing exponential growth as seen in New York City. It is testing at an average rate, ranking 20th in tests per million people. So while a fair number of cases could be being missed, the state is not an outlier by any means in its ability to track the disease.
Jerne Shapiro, a lecturer at the University of Florida’s epidemiology department, summarized her feelings like this: “I am optimistic when I’m looking at those trendlines.”
So why haven’t the worst fears for Florida come to pass? With one more caution that things could still break bad in the coming days and weeks, let’s run through a few of the theories I went over with public health experts in the state.
Good social distancing, good social distancing, good social distancing
Every expert I talked to cited social distancing, first and foremost, as the best explanation for the seeming plateau of Covid-19 cases in Florida.
“We’re doing a really good job of social distancing,” Shapiro said. “People are taking it seriously, and that allows us to slow the spread of the disease.”
Gary Wang, chief of the UF College of Medicine’s infectious disease and global health division, was only willing to cite one thing to explain the Florida trends: “good social distancing.”
As it turns out, news coverage might have given a misleading picture of how Floridians were actually responding to the coronavirus threat.
According to Google’s mobility reports, Florida is actually outperforming the US average on every metric of social distancing the tech company is tracking. Retail visits are down 49 percent (45 percent across the US). Trips to grocery stores and pharmacies have dropped 20 percent (7 percent US average), and people are going to parks less (down 54 percent versus 16 percent nationwide).
Though DeSantis was reluctant to issue a statewide stay-at-home order, many localities had already taken that critical step before he came around on April 1. Miami-Dade and Broward counties, the two most populous counties in Florida, had already urged residents to stay home by late March.
Florida may also have benefited from the precautions being taken in other states, which limited travel to this tourism-dependent state.
“That’s been better for Covid-19, though it’s not been great for our economy,” Cindy Prins, assistant dean at UF’s College of Public Health and an epidemiology professor, told me. “People got the message early on to protect themselves.”
Florida has important structural advantages for social distancing, too
One thing I think is often overlooked in the conversations about social distancing is the environmental factors. Florida has at least two obvious advantages over somewhere like New York when it comes to keeping one’s distance: More people live in single-family homes, and more people travel by car than public transportation.
Owner-occupied homes are a useful proxy for single-family households. Higher rates of ownership generally translate to more people living in a standalone house, while more rentals typically mean more people living in multi-unit facilities. Per census data, the owner-occupied housing rate in Florida is 65 percent, while in New York City, it is about 33 percent. (For all of New York state, it’s about 54 percent.)
The number of people per household is almost identical between the two places, so the difference is really in living situation.
“Even in some of our more urban areas, we don’t have the population density that you have in New York,” Prins said. “Higher population density, you’re always more likely to be exposed. You’re encountering more people and more at risk of being exposed.”
In an apartment building, Hladish said, “you can’t help the fact you’re touching the same elevator buttons or the same handrails.”
Some recent studies have suggested public transportation was also an important vector in New York, though others have cast doubt on that theory. Regardless, it is undeniable that Floridians find themselves in their cars a lot more than on mass transit.
In 2013, nearly 80 percent of people in Florida commuted alone in their car, truck, or van. In New York state, it was a little over 50 percent, while 28 percent were commuting via public transportation. In Florida, just 2 percent of people get to work by bus or subway.
“It’s a lot easier to stay away from your neighbors here,” Hladish says.
So while New Yorkers and Floridians might be equally committed to social distancing — Google’s mobility reports show similar trends — the latter group might simply find it easier to do.
“It’s not that Floridians cared more or are better at it,” Hladish says. “They may have simply been in a better position to take initiative at the individual level.”
One unknown: how much humidity and temperature helped or didn’t help
Given all the recent debate about how much higher temperatures or humidity might limit the coronavirus’s spread, or not, it would be remiss not to address it in the country’s hottest and most humid states. As Shapiro pointed out, Florida has already experienced 90-plus-degree days.
It’s possible there has been a marginal effect — but not in the way you might think. In general, the experts I talked to were unpersuaded that heat or humidity would explain Florida’s relatively mild coronavirus outbreak thus far.
“I don’t see that temperature and humidity would really have any effect. Even if they have one, I don’t think we would see it,” Prins said. “It’s just too easy for it to spread right now. We have too large a susceptible population.”
An MIT study from mid-March concluded that while climate factors might have some limited effect on the virus, “it is extremely unlikely that the spread of [Covid-19] would slow down in the USA or Europe, due to environmental factors.”
Hladish agreed that heat and humidity on their own wouldn’t be a big factor. But he did raise the possibility that warmer weather makes it easier for people to get outside — and get away from other people — which matters because the virus can spread more easily in indoor settings than outdoors.
“I think the behavioral effects of weather are more likely to be a factor,” he said. “In Florida, in many parts of the state, you can go outside and be away from other people.”
Hladish added that was actually part of the reason he wasn’t particularly concerned about reopening beaches. From an epidemiological perspective, it would be best to keep them closed. But if something is going to open, as state leaders are insisting, then beaches might be better than other options.
“We were going to do something, and I think this is relatively low risk,” Hladish said. “I have a hard time imagining there’s a lot of transmission happening at the beach.”
Though the virus seems to spread much more indoors, his concern was more that the people who are rushing out to the beaches are also engaging in other risky behaviors that could lead to the virus spreading.
“I think the bigger concern is there are a whole lot of people who just don’t care and aren’t worried,” he said.
Florida is seeing encouraging Covid-19 trends — but it’s not over yet
So social distancing, and Florida’s structural advantages in social distancing, seem like the most likely explanation for the plateauing outbreak there. The weather may be playing some marginal role, but the state can’t depend on its climate alone to save it from the coronavirus. And there was probably a bit of luck, too: As Vox’s German Lopez explained, some of the variance between places is simply a matter of when the virus showed up there.
But every expert I spoke with emphasized, again and again, that Florida shouldn’t rest easy yet.
“Social distancing has been working, but we should not conclude that we’re declining yet,” Hladish said.
The test reporting lags are one cause for concern. The consensus seems to be that states should see two weeks of declining deaths and cases, at a minimum, before they start to think about any plans to start reopening businesses and public activities.
“We have to be very cautious thinking that yesterday’s number of cases is a trend,” Prins said. “It’s not yet.”
If social distancing is relaxed too quickly, the coronavirus could come roaring back. Public health experts worry that politicians will simply look at data visualizations, see a flattened curve, and conclude it’s safe for life to go back to normal.
Hladish isn’t too worried about beaches reopening. If there is an effect, he doesn’t think it would lead to an explosion of cases.
But he does add, as a word of warning: “I do think that would happen if we ended the lockdowns.”
This story appears in VoxCare, a newsletter from Vox on the latest twists and turns in America’s health care debate. Sign up to get VoxCare in your inbox along with more health care stats and news.