vox--2020-09-12--A new California law will help inmate firefighters join fire departments upon release

On Friday , California Gov .
Gavin Newsom signed a bill that would make it easier for the state ’ s inmate firefighters to pursue a career in the field after their release .
The bill clears the way for inmates who serve as firefighters to have their convictions expunged upon release , according to state assemblywoman Eloise Reyes , who sponsored the bill , and to apply for most types of state licenses — including EMT certification , which is needed for most full-time municipal jobs — without listing their prior convictions .
Previously , anyone convicted of a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ an EMT certification for a decade after their release ; those convicted of multiple felonies were potentially barred for life .
Now , inmate firefighters will have a far better chance of finding work at municipal fire departments .
“ Signing AB 2147 into law is about giving second chances .
To correct is to right a wrong ; to rehabilitate is to restore , ” Reyes said in a statement Friday .
“ Rehabilitation without strategies to ensure the formerly incarcerated have a career , is a pathway to recidivism.
” The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ : California , where wildfires are a seasonal threat , has long employed inmate firefighters .
According to NPR , they ’ ve made up more than a fifth of the state ’ s fire crews in recent years , and this year some 2,200 incarcerated people are facing down a historic fire season on the front lines .
On the job , inmate firefighters are paid far below minimum wage — as little as $ 3 per day —even when actively battling a fire .
It ’ s dangerous work : Three @ @ @ @ @ @ @ fighting fires .
But while incarcerated firefighters usually make up a significant proportion of California ’ s firefighting force , the coronavirus pandemic means there are fewer on the job this year .
Prisons have been hard-hit by the pandemic , and in California , many inmates — more than 11,000 as of the end of August — have been released early to limit infection .
That means fewer incarcerated people available to join fire crews — putting strain on the state ’ s firefighting capacity , which already suffered from a shortage @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Chronicle reported last month , unprecedented wildfires up and down the West Coast mean that California isn ’ t getting nearly as much firefighting help from other states as it has in past years , with crews in Oregon and Washington focused on blazes in their home states .
The pandemic is affecting fire crews as well ; as Vox ’ s Umair Irfan reported , other countries have been hesitant to send their firefighters to help , given the US ’ s inability to manage its Covid-19 infection rate .
And some @ @ @ @ @ @ @ because of coronavirus exposure .
It ’ s a bad year to be short on firefighters .
In northern California , the August Complex fire has become the largest in history ; statewide , more than 3 million acres have burned already this year , compared to 118,000 acres after the first week of September 2019 .
Neighboring Oregon may be even worse off : Around half a million people — 10 percent of the state ’ s population — are currently under evacuation orders , and large swaths of several towns have @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Oregon Gov .
Kate Brown at a press conference .
Fires also menaced Portland , Oregon , earlier this week .
On Friday , state emergency management warned of a potential “ mass fatality incident based on what we know and the number of structures that have been lost.
” Conditions are similar in Washington state , where there were 14 active fires as of Friday .
Fully 80 percent of all structures in Malden , Washington — which is about 35 miles outside of Spokane — were destroyed earlier this week .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ , there ’ s a reason — multiple reasons , really — for this unprecedented level of devastation .
A dry summer , a heat wave , and high winds have all made things worse , as did a “ dry lightning ” storm in California last month , which caused at least 300 fires .
Those are the immediate factors , but the blazes can all be tied directly to climate change , as well , as Vox ’ s Eliza Barclay , David Roberts , and Umair Irfan detailed earlier this @ @ @ @ @ @ @ climate change has led to more arid conditions in Western states , creating conditions for fires to start , and spread , more easily than in previous centuries .
Beyond property destruction and growing loss of life , another consequence of the fires is the pall of smoke , and even falling ash in California ’ s Bay Area , that has blanketed the West Coast .
As of Saturday , Seattle ; Portland , Oregon ; and San Francisco , as well as Vancouver , British Columbia , have the worst air @ @ @ @ @ @ @ many places , the sky has turned an eerie orange that has elicited comparisons to Blade Runner — but it ’ s also toxic .
Irfan explains : As bad as the fires have been so far , things may not get better anytime soon .
In a “ Significant Wildland Fire Potential Outlook ” published by the National Interagency Fire Center earlier this month , the agency warned that “ a continuation of peak season activity into September is expected across much of the West as drought conditions continue to take hold @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in the month .
That ’ s the outlook for this fire season .
In the long run , of course , climate change is still happening — and historic fire seasons could increasingly become the new normal .
Help keep Vox free for all Millions turn to Vox each month to understand what ’ s happening in the news , from the coronavirus crisis to a racial reckoning to what is , quite possibly , the most consequential presidential election of our lifetimes .
Our mission has never been more vital than @ @ @ @ @ @ @ empower you through understanding .
But our distinctive brand of explanatory journalism takes resources .
Even when the economy and the news advertising market recovers , your support will be a critical part of sustaining our resource-intensive work .
If you have already contributed , thank you .
If you haven ’ t , please consider helping everyone make sense of an increasingly chaotic world : Contribute today from as little as $ 3 .

On Friday, California Gov. Gavin Newsom signed a bill that would make it easier for the state’s inmate firefighters to pursue a career in the field after their release.
The bill clears the way for inmates who serve as firefighters to have their convictions expunged upon release, according to state assembly member Eloise Reyes, who sponsored the bill, and to apply for most types of state licenses — including EMT certification, which is needed for most full-time municipal jobs — without listing their prior convictions.
Previously, anyone convicted of a felony in California was barred from receiving an EMT certification for a decade after their release; those convicted of multiple felonies were potentially barred for life. Now, inmate firefighters will have a far better chance of finding work at municipal fire departments.
“Signing AB 2147 into law is about giving second chances. To correct is to right a wrong; to rehabilitate is to restore,” Reyes said in a statement Friday. “Rehabilitation without strategies to ensure the formerly incarcerated have a career, is a pathway to recidivism.”
The bill has been a long time in coming: California, where wildfires are a seasonal threat, has long employed inmate firefighters. According to NPR, they’ve made up more than a fifth of the state’s fire crews in recent years, and this year some 2,200 incarcerated people are facing down a historic fire season on the front lines.
On the job, inmate firefighters are paid far below minimum wage — as little as $3 per day —even when actively battling a fire. It’s dangerous work: Three inmate firefighters have died since 2017 while fighting fires.
But while incarcerated firefighters usually make up a significant proportion of California’s firefighting force, the coronavirus pandemic means there are fewer on the job this year. Prisons have been hard-hit by the pandemic, and in California, many inmates — more than 11,000 as of the end of August — have been released early to limit infection.
That means fewer incarcerated people available to join fire crews — putting strain on the state’s firefighting capacity, which already suffered from a shortage of firefighters. As the San Francisco Chronicle reported last month, unprecedented wildfires up and down the West Coast mean that California isn’t getting nearly as much firefighting help from other states as it has in past years, with crews in Oregon and Washington focused on blazes in their home states.
The pandemic is affecting fire crews as well; as Vox’s Umair Irfan reported, other countries have been hesitant to send their firefighters to help, given the US’s inability to manage its Covid-19 infection rate. And some firefighters have also been forced to quarantine because of coronavirus exposure.
West Coast wildfires are “unprecedented”
It’s a bad year to be short on firefighters. In northern California, the August Complex fire has become the largest in history; statewide, more than 3 million acres have burned already this year, compared to 118,000 acres after the first week of September 2019.
Neighboring Oregon may be even worse off: Around half a million people — 10 percent of the state’s population — are currently under evacuation orders, and large swaths of several towns have been “substantially destroyed,” said Oregon Gov. Kate Brown at a press conference.
Fires also menaced Portland, Oregon, earlier this week. On Friday, state emergency management warned of a potential “mass fatality incident based on what we know and the number of structures that have been lost.”
Conditions are similar in Washington state, where there were 14 active fires as of Friday. Fully 80 percent of all structures in Malden, Washington — which is about 35 miles outside of Spokane — were destroyed earlier this week.
As my colleague Umair Irfan explained Friday, there’s a reason — multiple reasons, really — for this unprecedented level of devastation. A dry summer, a heat wave, and high winds have all made things worse, as did a “dry lightning” storm in California last month, which caused at least 300 fires.
Those are the immediate factors, but the blazes can all be tied directly to climate change, as well, as Vox’s Eliza Barclay, David Roberts, and Umair Irfan detailed earlier this week. Essentially, they write, climate change has led to more arid conditions in Western states, creating conditions for fires to start, and spread, more easily than in previous centuries.
Beyond property destruction and growing loss of life, another consequence of the fires is the pall of smoke, and even falling ash in California’s Bay Area, that has blanketed the West Coast. As of Saturday, Seattle; Portland, Oregon; and San Francisco, as well as Vancouver, British Columbia, have the worst air quality anywhere in the world. In many places, the sky has turned an eerie orange that has elicited comparisons to Blade Runner — but it’s also toxic. Irfan explains:
Such reductions in air quality can have devastating consequences for respiratory and cardiovascular health, increasing the rates of heart attacks, asthma attacks, and strokes. Around the world, pollution from tiny particles like those from wildfire smoke remains one of the largest health threats to humanity.
As bad as the fires have been so far, things may not get better anytime soon. In a “Significant Wildland Fire Potential Outlook” published by the National Interagency Fire Center earlier this month, the agency warned that “a continuation of peak season activity into September is expected across much of the West as drought conditions continue to take hold,” though things could improve later in the month.
That’s the outlook for this fire season. In the long run, of course, climate change is still happening — and historic fire seasons could increasingly become the new normal.


vox--2020-09-12--How to make sure the census counts you

How to make sure the census counts you

April 1 was the official Census Day .
Although you are legally obligated to participate in the census , that doesn ’ t mean you needed to respond on or by April 1 .
So if you still haven ’ t filled out your census , don ’ t worry .
There ’ s still time .
Census Day is basically a benchmark that gives everyone a specific , universal date to tell the government what their household looks like .
That ’ s why you might fill it out on March 15 or September 15 , but you ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ looked like on April 1 .
The important thing is that you fill it out .
Doing so as soon as possible helps the government and other stakeholders ensure that as many people are counted as possible .
That ’ s especially important when some of the traditional methods they ’ ve used to do this , like holding public events to promote the census in lower-turnout areas , are not an option due to the coronavirus pandemic .
The pandemic has also affected the Census Bureau ’ s field operations , like @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ t have reliable mail service and sending workers out door-to-door to count people who didn ’ t self-respond .
The self-response deadline has been extended from July 31 to September 30 , and field workers headed out later than planned .
What hasn ’ t been delayed is the deadline to send the count to President Trump ( December 31 ) and then the states ( April 1 , 2021 ) .
While the pandemic has made it harder to do a lot of things , filling out your census form doesn @ @ @ @ @ @ @ them .
Not only can you call or mail in your responses , but 2020 also has an online option , too .
That won ’ t do you any good if you don ’ t have access to the internet , obviously , but for those who do it ’ s a fast and easy way to be counted .
So let ’ s look at how this modernized version of America ’ s greatest survey will work and what it means .
Is this the first online US census ?
While @ @ @ @ @ @ @ some places as the first-ever American census with online submissions , including on the census ’ s own website , this is not quite true .
The 2000 census also had an online response option , but it wasn ’ t publicized .
Perhaps as a result , only 63,000 households ended up filling out the 2000 census online .
The low response rate was intentional , allowing it to serve as a test run for the 2010 census .
Despite the Census Bureau declaring it to be an “ operational success , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ have an online submission option at all .
Now , in 2020 , the plan is for the majority of responses to come through the online form .
So 2020 might not be the first online American census , but it is America ’ s first digital census .
How will it work ?
Assuming that everything goes to plan — and when it comes to government websites , that isn ’ t guaranteed — filling out the census online is supposed to be very simple .
You should get something in the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ here ’ s a sample ) .
That letter will instruct you to go to www.my2020census.gov , click “ start questionnaire , ” enter your census ID , and then answer all the questions about your name , address , who lives in your household , etc .
And no , you will not be asked about your citizenship status .
You can also respond to your census letter by mail or phone .
If you don ’ t have a census ID because you either don ’ t want to wait for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ it just never came at all , you can still fill out the online form .
Just go to the website and navigate to the “ if you do not have a Census ID , click here ” button on the login page .
You ’ ll have to answer a few additional questions about your address , but you should be able to complete the census after that .
If you ’ re still lost , the Census Bureau also put out a very detailed video on how to complete the online @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the online census will be able to handle large amounts of traffic .
In February , the Government Accountability Office warned that the site could have “ performance issues ” if too many people use it at the same time .
So good luck with that .
How else is the latest census futuristic ?
The 2020 census has also incorporated some new behind-the-scenes technology to cut down on the number of human workers and , therefore , the cost involved .
In 2010 , census takers were supposed to use custom-made handheld @ @ @ @ @ @ @ were scrapped when it became apparent that the corresponding app wouldn ’ t be ready in time .
What did work were the GPS-equipped devices field workers used to verify addresses before the census forms went out .
This was all done in person 10 years ago , but this time around , much of that work is being done using satellite images instead .
Census workers compare images taken 10 years ago with recent ones ; if there ’ s a significant difference ( new streets or homes added or removed ) @ @ @ @ @ @ @ them out .
And the Census Bureau is going to give handheld devices for census takers another try .
This time , they ’ ll get iPhone 8 devices equipped with an app the census developed with Pegasystems .
Pega says it has been working with the Census Bureau on the app since 2016 and “ extensively ” tested it throughout the process .
The company also has years of experience working with governments on software , so it sounds like this app will fare much better than the 2010 devices that never @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the much-maligned 2020 Iowa caucus app , which was hastily made by a company with little experience , time , or funding to complete the job .
Is all this safe ?
Obviously , cybersecurity is a concern with this census .
As the Washington Post points out , the government doesn ’ t have the best record when it comes to functional websites with adequate security from hackers .
And there have been attacks on other countries ’ censuses before .
In 2016 , Australia ’ s census site was hit with @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ) attack , forcing it to shut down for almost two days .
The Census Bureau says it ’ s taking cybersecurity precautions seriously ; it ’ s partnering with the private sector including Microsoft ’ s Defending Democracy Program and using Amazon Web Service ’ s cloud service to store the data ( hopefully having fixed some of the security issues that were identified by the Office of the Inspector General ) .
The Census Bureau is also working with the Department of Homeland Security .
While the Census Bureau insists that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ successful count , ” the Government Accountability Office said in February that the bureau “ continues to face significant cybersecurity challenges , including those related to addressing cybersecurity weaknesses in a timely manner.
” It ’ s not clear how serious these security threats are as the census gets underway and counting the estimated 330 million people in this country ramps up .
With over $ 800 billion in government spending and congressional seats riding on the results , let ’ s hope they ’ re accurate .
Regardless , you can do @ @ @ @ @ @ @ out your own census form — online or otherwise — as soon as the invitation shows up in your mailbox .
Open Sourced is made possible by Omidyar Network .
All Open Sourced content is editorially independent and produced by our journalists .
Help keep Vox free for all Millions turn to Vox each month to understand what ’ s happening in the news , from the coronavirus crisis to a racial reckoning to what is , quite possibly , the most consequential presidential election of our lifetimes .
Our mission has never @ @ @ @ @ @ @ this moment : to empower you through understanding .
But our distinctive brand of explanatory journalism takes resources .
Even when the economy and the news advertising market recovers , your support will be a critical part of sustaining our resource-intensive work .
If you have already contributed , thank you .
If you haven ’ t , please consider helping everyone make sense of an increasingly chaotic world : Contribute today from as little as $ 3 .

October 15 is your last chance to fill out the census — online, by phone, or by mail. Here’s why it’s so important that you fill it out.
Responding to the census as soon as possible helps the government and other stakeholders ensure that as many people are counted as possible. That’s especially important when some of the traditional methods they’ve used to do this, like holding public events to promote the census in lower-turnout areas, are not an option due to the coronavirus pandemic.
The self-response deadline was extended from July 31 to October 31, but, following orders from the Trump administration, the Census Bureau is wrapping things up early and moved the deadline up to October 15.
The pandemic has affected the Census Bureau’s field operations, like hand-delivering forms to rural areas that don’t have reliable mail service and sending workers out door-to-door to count people who didn’t self-respond.
While the pandemic has made it harder to do a lot of things, filling out your census form doesn’t have to be one of them. Not only can you call or mail in your responses, but 2020 has an online option, too. That won’t do you any good if you don’t have access to the internet, obviously, but for those who do, it’s a fast and easy way to be counted. So let’s look at how this modernized version of America’s greatest survey works and what it means.
Is this the first online US census?
While the 2020 census has been billed in some places as the first-ever American census with online submissions, including on the census’s own website, this is not quite true. The 2000 census also had an online response option, but it wasn’t publicized.
Perhaps as a result, only 63,000 households ended up filling out the 2000 census online. The low response rate was intentional, allowing it to serve as a test run for the 2010 census. Despite the Census Bureau declaring it to be an “operational success,” the 2010 census didn’t have an online submission option at all. Now, in 2020, the plan is for the majority of responses to come through the online form.
So 2020 might not be the first online American census, but it is America’s first digital census.
How will it work?
Assuming that everything goes to plan — and when it comes to government websites, that isn’t guaranteed — filling out the census online is supposed to be very simple.
You should have received something in the mail with a 12-digit census ID (here’s a sample). That letter will instruct you to go to www.my2020census.gov, click “start questionnaire,” enter your census ID, and then answer all the questions about your name, address, who lives in your household, etc. And no, you will not be asked about your citizenship status. You can also respond to your census letter by mail or phone.
If you don’t have a census ID because you lost or didn’t receive it, you can still fill out the online form. Just go to the website and navigate to the “if you do not have a Census ID, click here” button on the login page. You’ll have to answer a few additional questions about your address, but you should be able to complete the census after that.
If you’re still lost, the Census Bureau also put out a very detailed video on how to complete the online census that might help:
Hopefully, the online census will be able to handle large amounts of traffic. In February, the Government Accountability Office warned that the site could have “performance issues” if too many people use it at the same time.
“The majority of people responding to the 2020 census on their own have done so online, the online response has not experienced a single moment of downtime since it opened in March,” the Census Bureau told Recode.
Related How the 2020 census struggled to overcome Trump to get an accurate count
How else is the latest census futuristic?
The 2020 census has also incorporated some new behind-the-scenes technology to cut down on the number of human workers and, therefore, the cost involved.
In 2010, census takers were supposed to use custom-made handheld devices to survey non-respondents. Those plans were scrapped when it became apparent that the corresponding app wouldn’t be ready in time. What did work were the GPS-equipped devices field workers used to verify addresses before the census forms went out. This was all done in person 10 years ago, but this time around, much of that work is being done using satellite images instead. Census workers compare images taken 10 years ago with recent ones; if there’s a significant difference (new streets or homes added or removed), field workers are sent to check them out.
And the Census Bureau is going to give handheld devices for census takers another try. This time, they’ll get iPhone 8 devices equipped with an app the census developed with Pegasystems. Pega says it has been working with the Census Bureau on the app since 2016 and “extensively” tested it throughout the process. The company also has years of experience working with governments on software, so it sounds like this app will fare much better than the 2010 devices that never made it out of the gate or the much-maligned 2020 Iowa caucus app, which was hastily made by a company with little experience, time, or funding to complete the job.
Is all this safe?
Obviously, cybersecurity is a concern with this census. As the Washington Post points out, the government doesn’t have the best record when it comes to functional websites with adequate security from hackers. And there have been attacks on other countries’ censuses before.
In 2016, Australia’s census site was hit with a distributed denial of service (DDoS) attack, forcing it to shut down for almost two days. The Census Bureau says it’s taking cybersecurity precautions seriously; it’s partnering with the private sector including Microsoft’s Defending Democracy Program and using Amazon Web Service’s cloud service to store the data (hopefully having fixed some of the security issues that were identified by the Office of the Inspector General). The Census Bureau is also working with the Department of Homeland Security.
While the Census Bureau insists that 2020 will be a “secure and successful count,” the Government Accountability Office said in February that the bureau “continues to face significant cybersecurity challenges, including those related to addressing cybersecurity weaknesses in a timely manner.”
It appears these security threats have dissipated as the census wraps up counting the estimated 330 million people in this country. With over $800 billion in government spending and congressional seats riding on the results, let’s hope they’re accurate.
Regardless, you can do your part to ensure this by filling out your own census form right now.
Open Sourced is made possible by Omidyar Network. All Open Sourced content is editorially independent and produced by our journalists.
Help keep Vox free for all


vox--2020-09-13--Polls: Joe Biden leads Trump in several key swing states

In a new batch of swing-state polling released this weekend by the New York Times and CBS News , Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden continues to lead President Donald Trump in several key states with just 51 days to go until the November election .
Specifically , a New York Times/Siena College poll taken from September 8 to 10 shows Biden retaining his lead with likely voters in four important states : Minnesota , Nevada , New Hampshire , and Wisconsin .
Likewise , a CBS News/YouGov survey conducted from September 9 to 11 gives the former vice president the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and Arizona .
In 2016 , Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton won Minnesota , Nevada , and New Hampshire ; Trump won Arizona and Wisconsin .
This time around , the GOP has indicated they ’ re playing to win in Minnesota .
“ In 2016 I almost won Minnesota , ” Trump tweeted last year .
“ In 2020 , because of America hating anti-Semite Rep. Omar , & the fact that Minnesota is having its best economic year ever , I will win the State !
” His campaign has followed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ advertising push in the state , larger than their buys in the swing states of Michigan and Wisconsin .
However , the New York Times and CBS polls would appear to throw some cold water on Trump ’ s Minnesota ambitions : While Clinton eked out a narrow win by less than 2 percent in 2016 , both the New York Times and CBS show Biden leading Trump by 9 percentage points .
The same polls suggest Trump is in danger of ceding Arizona and Wisconsin to Biden in November .
CBS reports @ @ @ @ @ @ @ points in Arizona , and according to the New York Times poll , Biden is up by 5 percentage points in Wisconsin .
In Nevada , where Trump held a rally on Saturday , Biden also has a small lead of 4 percentage points — but Chuck Rocha , a former adviser to the Bernie Sanders campaign , says that Democrats need to take the state more seriously , or that might change : “ What ’ s underreported right [ now ] is the problem in Nevada , ” Rocha said .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ off .
The entire [ Las Vegas ] strip is shut down , for the most part .
So there ’ s astronomical unemployment there.
” Rocha said Democrats have not been sensitive enough to the economic hardship that has affected the area — and that has impacted Latinx voters particularly hard .
To win the state , he said , Biden will have to present a clear plan of how his policy vision will help those who need work , and income , right now .
According to NBC News , the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a sure thing for Biden , either .
In fact , Trump campaign officials view Nevada as part of an “ alternate route ” to winning 270 electoral votes , should the president lose some of the states that handed him victory in 2016 .
New Hampshire , a 2016 squeaker that went for Clinton by just three-tenths of a percent , is also part of that “ alternative route ” strategy .
The New York Times/Siena College poll shows Biden with a 3 percentage point lead there , but Trump made a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , which has a Republican governor , shortly after wrapping up the Republican National Convention last month .
Overall , these polls contain good news for Biden — but many of his leads , like those in New Hampshire and Arizona , are narrow ones , suggesting there is still room for the president to swing opinion his way .
Looking beyond the particulars of any one poll , polling for the 2020 presidential race has been largely stable .
Nationally , Biden leads Trump by an average of about 7.3 percentage points @ @ @ @ @ @ @ lead in key swing states like Michigan and Pennsylvania .
These latest results fall in line with these standing trends .
And Biden ’ s national average also squares with a recent Fox News poll of likely voters , which shows Biden with a slightly smaller lead versus Trump — just 5 percentage points — but a solid advantage on most issues , including racial inequality , the pandemic , health care , the courts , immigration , and policing .
Only on the economy did likely voters have more faith in Trump @ @ @ @ @ @ @ points .
One possible reason for the consistency seen in polling is that surveys have suggested there are fewer undecided voters than there were in 2016 .
According to CNN , just 13 percent of registered voters either haven ’ t decided or are still open to changing their minds , and a Quinnipiac University poll from earlier this month found that only 3 percent of likely voters were still undecided .
That ’ s likely not good news for Trump , who did well with late-breaking undecided voters in 2016 but has @ @ @ @ @ @ @ time around with a smaller pool of undecideds .
As CNN ’ s John Harwood points out , Biden is also quite a bit more popular than Clinton was in 2016 , while the majority of Americans still dislike Trump .
Of course , polling isn ’ t prophecy .
As my colleague Li Zhou has explained previously , polls only really “ capture public sentiment during a moment in time , ” and things could still change , especially with three presidential debates yet to come .
And given one needs only @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the popular vote , a candidate winning over even a portion of a group that may have traditionally voted for his rival could have an outsized effect on results .
In this particular moment in time , though , Biden looks to be in a strong spot ahead of the November election .
Help keep Vox free for all Millions turn to Vox each month to understand what ’ s happening in the news , from the coronavirus crisis to a racial reckoning to what is , quite possibly , the most consequential @ @ @ @ @ @ @ mission has never been more vital than it is in this moment : to empower you through understanding .
But our distinctive brand of explanatory journalism takes resources — particularly during a pandemic and an economic downturn .
Even when the economy and the news advertising market recovers , your support will be a critical part of sustaining our resource-intensive work , and helping everyone make sense of an increasingly chaotic world .
Contribute today from as little as $ 3 .

In a new batch of swing-state polling released this weekend by the New York Times and CBS News, Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden continues to lead President Donald Trump in several key states with just 51 days to go until the November election.
Specifically, a New York Times/Siena College poll taken from September 8 to 10 shows Biden retaining his lead with likely voters in four important states: Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, and Wisconsin. Likewise, a CBS News/YouGov survey conducted from September 9 to 11 gives the former vice president the edge among likely voters in both Minnesota and Arizona.
In 2016, Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton won Minnesota, Nevada, and New Hampshire; Trump won Arizona and Wisconsin.
This time around, the GOP has indicated they’re playing to win in Minnesota. “In 2016 I almost won Minnesota,” Trump tweeted last year. “In 2020, because of America hating anti-Semite Rep. Omar, & the fact that Minnesota is having its best economic year ever, I will win the State!” His campaign has followed that bluster with a $14 million advertising push in the state, larger than their buys in the swing states of Michigan and Wisconsin.
However, the New York Times and CBS polls would appear to throw some cold water on Trump’s Minnesota ambitions: While Clinton eked out a narrow win by less than 2 percent in 2016, both the New York Times and CBS show Biden leading Trump by 9 percentage points.
The same polls suggest Trump is in danger of ceding Arizona and Wisconsin to Biden in November. CBS reports Biden narrowly leads Trump by 3 percentage points in Arizona, and according to the New York Times poll, Biden is up by 5 percentage points in Wisconsin.
In Nevada, where Trump held a rally on Saturday, Biden also has a small lead of 4 percentage points — but Chuck Rocha, a former adviser to the Bernie Sanders campaign, says that Democrats need to take the state more seriously, or that might change:
“What’s underreported right [now] is the problem in Nevada,” Rocha said. “The entire Culinary Union is laid off. The entire [Las Vegas] strip is shut down, for the most part. So there’s astronomical unemployment there.”
Rocha said Democrats have not been sensitive enough to the economic hardship that has affected the area — and that has impacted Latinx voters particularly hard. To win the state, he said, Biden will have to present a clear plan of how his policy vision will help those who need work, and income, right now.
According to NBC News, the Trump campaign does not see Nevada as a sure thing for Biden, either. In fact, Trump campaign officials view Nevada as part of an “alternate route” to winning 270 electoral votes, should the president lose some of the states that handed him victory in 2016.
New Hampshire, a 2016 squeaker that went for Clinton by just three-tenths of a percent, is also part of that “alternative route” strategy. The New York Times/Siena College poll shows Biden with a 3 percentage point lead there, but Trump made a point of holding rallies in the state, which has a Republican governor, shortly after wrapping up the Republican National Convention last month.
Overall, these polls contain good news for Biden — but many of his leads, like those in New Hampshire and Arizona, are narrow ones, suggesting there is still room for the president to swing opinion his way.
A mostly stable race
Looking beyond the particulars of any one poll, polling for the 2020 presidential race has been largely stable. Nationally, Biden leads Trump by an average of about 7.3 percentage points, and he has retained a consistent lead in key swing states like Michigan and Pennsylvania. These latest results fall in line with these standing trends.
And Biden’s national average also squares with a recent Fox News poll of likely voters, which shows Biden with a slightly smaller lead versus Trump — just 5 percentage points — but a solid advantage on most issues, including racial inequality, the pandemic, health care, the courts, immigration, and policing. Only on the economy did likely voters have more faith in Trump, by a margin of 5 percentage points.
One possible reason for the consistency seen in polling is that surveys have suggested there are fewer undecided voters than there were in 2016. According to CNN, just 13 percent of registered voters either haven’t decided or are still open to changing their minds, and a Quinnipiac University poll from earlier this month found that only 3 percent of likely voters were still undecided.
That’s likely not good news for Trump, who did well with late-breaking undecided voters in 2016 but has far more ground to make up this time around with a smaller pool of undecideds. As CNN’s John Harwood points out, Biden is also quite a bit more popular than Clinton was in 2016, while the majority of Americans still dislike Trump.
Of course, polling isn’t prophecy. As my colleague Li Zhou has explained previously, polls only really “capture public sentiment during a moment in time,” and things could still change, especially with three presidential debates yet to come. And given one needs only to win the electoral college rather than the popular vote, a candidate winning over even a portion of a group that may have traditionally voted for his rival could have an outsized effect on results.
In this particular moment in time, though, Biden looks to be in a strong spot ahead of the November election.


vox--2020-09-13--Why Mike Bloomberg plans to spend $100 million boosting Biden in Florida

Former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg has announced his intent to pour $ 100 million into Florida in support of Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden .
Bloomberg , a onetime Democratic presidential candidate , is the world ’ s 19th-richest person according to Forbes , with a fortune of almost $ 55 billion .
He previously spent more than $ 1 billion on his nomination bid earlier this year before dropping out and endorsing Biden .
While in that race , he pledged to spend heavily from his personal fortune to support the eventual Democratic nominee .
According to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Florida efforts will prioritize spending on television and digital ads in both English and Spanish .
That could be a major boon to the Biden campaign .
Though FiveThirtyEight ’ s polling average shows a slight Biden edge — about 2.6 points — in Florida , the Cook Political Report has deemed the presidential race there a tossup — and Republicans won statewide elections there in 2016 and 2018 .
Florida has a unique significance in modern presidential elections .
No candidate in the last 50 years , except for Bill Clinton in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ without it — and given tight races in other swing states , it ’ s widely seen as a must-win for Trump this November if he ’ s to have any shot at a second term .
The Trump team is certainly spending like they believe that ’ s the case .
According to the ad tracking site AdAge , Trump has committed $ 37.8 million to television ads in Florida , beating out the Biden campaign by a bit more than $ 20 million .
And Trump ’ s top three media @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Florida : He ’ s pouring millions into the Tampa , Miami , and Orlando areas .
Trump derided Bloomberg ’ s plan on Twitter shortly after it was announced , inflating the amount the former mayor spent on his unsuccessful presidential campaign .
“ I thought Mini Mike was through with Democrat politics after spending almost 2 Billion Dollars , and then giving the worst and most inept Debate Performance in the history of Presidential Politics , ” Trump tweeted .
The Biden campaign has reason to be worried about Florida Most @ @ @ @ @ @ @ edge over Trump in Florida .
But the former vice president ’ s margin in the state has crept downward since last month , falling by 2.8 percentage points compared to his lead in mid-August .
Some of that decline could be driven by his apparent weakness with Latino voters in Florida .
A recent NBC News/Marist poll shows Biden trailing Trump by about 4 percent with that demographic — bad news in a state that ’ s more than a quarter Latino , especially when you compare Biden ’ s numbers to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ performance in the state .
( According to exit polls from 2016 , Clinton claimed 62 percent of the Latino vote in Florida to Trump ’ s 35 percent . )
Last week , former Bernie Sanders campaign adviser Chuck Rocha explained Biden ’ s problem with Latino voters to Vox ’ s Nicole Narea as one of timing and messaging : Up until August 1 , Donald Trump had spent three times as much money on Spanish-language communication as Joe Biden .
Joe Biden has caught up with that spending and it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s done it all in the last two weeks .
He ’ s made huge buys .
That tells me they ’ re not doing as well as they can .
Donald Trump got ahead of him , defined who he was , and they had to really ramp up their Spanish-language spending , outspending Donald Trump by 10 to one in the last two weeks trying to catch up .
“ Some of this ‘ law and order ’ stuff , about having safe streets for your kids and your family @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Rocha added .
“ Not a majority of them .
Not even 30 percent .
But [ Trump ] only needs to skim off 4 or 5 percent of Latino men , and it changes the entire electorate.
” On Sunday , top Biden campaign adviser Symone Sanders acknowledged that vulnerability in an interview with ABC ’ s George Stephanopoulos , but emphasized that Biden and Democratic vice presidential nominee Sen. Kamala Harris — who was in the state just last week — were committed to “ doing the work ” to shore @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Sunday , Trump tweeted a negative assessment of his rival ’ s chances in the state , touting his endorsement from Bay of Pigs veterans , as well as his ties to Cuban Americans in Miami .
The president ’ s taunts aside , a recent appeals court decision in Florida could make things harder for the Biden campaign .
Last week , a judge upheld a Florida law mandating that people previously convicted of felonies must pay off all fines and fees before they can register to vote , a decision which @ @ @ @ @ @ @ voters .
The law , passed after Florida voters approved Amendment 4 during the 2018 midterms to restore voting rights to people convicted of a felony who had served their sentence , has been compared to a poll tax .
The exact effect that decision will have is still unclear , but it ’ s likely to favor Trump : As the New York Times pointed out on Friday , “ any effort to limit ballot access could play a role in November , particularly if it affects a mostly low-income and disadvantaged @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ” Voters in Florida are set to get a close look at both candidates next month before they go to the polls : The second presidential debate , on October 15 , will take place in Miami , Florida .
Help keep Vox free for all Millions turn to Vox each month to understand what ’ s happening in the news , from the coronavirus crisis to a racial reckoning to what is , quite possibly , the most consequential presidential election of our lifetimes .
Our mission has never been more vital @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to empower you through understanding .
But our distinctive brand of explanatory journalism takes resources — particularly during a pandemic and an economic downturn .
Even when the economy and the news advertising market recovers , your support will be a critical part of sustaining our resource-intensive work , and helping everyone make sense of an increasingly chaotic world .
Contribute today from as little as $ 3 .

Former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg has announced his intent to pour $100 million into Florida in support of Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden.
Bloomberg, a onetime Democratic presidential candidate, is the world’s 19th-richest person according to Forbes, with a fortune of almost $55 billion. He previously spent more than $1 billion on his nomination bid earlier this year before dropping out and endorsing Biden. While in that race, he pledged to spend heavily from his personal fortune to support the eventual Democratic nominee.
According to the Washington Post, Bloomberg’s Florida efforts will prioritize spending on television and digital ads in both English and Spanish.
That could be a major boon to the Biden campaign. Though FiveThirtyEight’s polling average shows a slight Biden edge — about 2.6 points — in Florida, the Cook Political Report has deemed the presidential race there a toss-up — and Republicans won statewide elections there in 2016 and 2018.
Florida has a unique significance in modern presidential elections. No candidate in the last 50 years, except for Bill Clinton in 1992, has won the White House without it — and given tight races in other swing states, it’s widely seen as a must-win for Trump this November if he’s to have any shot at a second term.
The Trump team is certainly spending like they believe that’s the case. According to the ad tracking site AdAge, Trump has committed $37.8 million to television ads in Florida, beating out the Biden campaign by a bit more than $20 million.
And Trump’s top three media markets by television spending are all in Florida: He’s pouring millions into the Tampa, Miami, and Orlando areas.
Trump derided Bloomberg’s plan on Twitter shortly after it was announced, inflating the amount the former mayor spent on his unsuccessful presidential campaign.
“I thought Mini Mike was through with Democrat politics after spending almost 2 Billion Dollars, and then giving the worst and most inept Debate Performance in the history of Presidential Politics,” Trump tweeted.
I thought Mini Mike was through with Democrat politics after spending almost 2 Billion Dollars, and then giving the worst and most inept Debate Performance in the history of Presidential Politics. Pocahontas ended his political career on first question, OVER! Save NYC instead. https://t.co/WgbVvEUt2N — Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) September 13, 2020
The Biden campaign has reason to be worried about Florida
Most recent polls show Biden with a slim edge over Trump in Florida. But the former vice president’s margin in the state has crept downward since last month, falling by 2.8 percentage points compared to his lead in mid-August.
Some of that decline could be driven by his apparent weakness with Latino voters in Florida. A recent NBC News/Marist poll shows Biden trailing Trump by about 4 percent with that demographic — bad news in a state that’s more than a quarter Latino, especially when you compare Biden’s numbers to 2016 Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton’s performance in the state. (According to exit polls from 2016, Clinton claimed 62 percent of the Latino vote in Florida to Trump’s 35 percent.)
Last week, former Bernie Sanders campaign adviser Chuck Rocha explained Biden’s problem with Latino voters to Vox’s Nicole Narea as one of timing and messaging:
Up until August 1, Donald Trump had spent three times as much money on Spanish-language communication as Joe Biden. Joe Biden has caught up with that spending and it’s equal now, but he’s done it all in the last two weeks. He’s made huge buys. That tells me they’re not doing as well as they can. Donald Trump got ahead of him, defined who he was, and they had to really ramp up their Spanish-language spending, outspending Donald Trump by 10 to one in the last two weeks trying to catch up.
“Some of this ‘law and order’ stuff, about having safe streets for your kids and your family, works with Latino men,” Rocha added. “Not a majority of them. Not even 30 percent. But [Trump] only needs to skim off 4 or 5 percent of Latino men, and it changes the entire electorate.”
On Sunday, top Biden campaign adviser Symone Sanders acknowledged that vulnerability in an interview with ABC’s George Stephanopoulos, but emphasized that Biden and Democratic vice presidential nominee Sen. Kamala Harris — who was in the state just last week — were committed to “doing the work” to shore up their numbers in Florida.
On Sunday, Trump tweeted a negative assessment of his rival’s chances in the state, touting his endorsement from Bay of Pigs veterans, as well as his ties to Cuban Americans in Miami.
Sleepy Joe Biden has spent 47 years in politics being terrible to Hispanics. Now he is relying on Castro lover Bernie Sanders to help him out. That won’t work! Remember, Miami Cubans gave me the highly honored Bay of Pigs Award for all I have done for our great Cuban Population! — Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) September 13, 2020
The president’s taunts aside, a recent appeals court decision in Florida could make things harder for the Biden campaign. Last week, a judge upheld a Florida law mandating that people previously convicted of felonies must pay off all fines and fees before they can register to vote, a decision which could disenfranchise hundreds of thousands of would-be voters.
The law, passed after Florida voters approved Amendment 4 during the 2018 midterms to restore voting rights to people convicted of a felony who had served their sentence, has been compared to a poll tax.
The exact effect that decision will have is still unclear, but it’s likely to favor Trump: As the New York Times pointed out on Friday, “any effort to limit ballot access could play a role in November, particularly if it affects a mostly low-income and disadvantaged population likely to lean more toward Democrats.”
Voters in Florida are set to get a close look at both candidates next month before they go to the polls: The second presidential debate, on October 15, will take place in Miami, Florida.


vox--2020-09-13--Trump’s Nevada rally was an exercise in delegitimizing voting — and denying reality

President Donald Trump traveled to Minden , Nevada — a town about 50 miles south of Reno — for a rambling , grievance-filled campaign rally on Saturday .
Over the course of a 90-minute speech , Trump attacked mail-in voting , Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden , and Nevada Gov .
Steve Sisolak , while lamenting his press coverage , long drives , and the fact he was not able to have Air Force One behind him as he spoke .
He also once again suggested that he should be allowed to serve more than two terms in office , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ from his speech was anything approaching a cohesive second-term agenda or a policy platform .
What little policy his speech did contain was delivered suggestively , in the context of what the president is against , including limiting fracking and teaching children “ poisonous anti-American lies in school.
” Far more of Trump ’ s remarks focused on attempts to demean his opponents and preemptively cast doubt on an election that national polls show him trailing in .
Trump has spent much of the summer searching for an attack that will stick to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ; that he ’ s a puppet of the radical left ; and that he ’ ll usher in the apocalypse — and all three messages were on display in abundance Saturday .
Biden , Trump claimed Saturday , is “ unable , ” a “ pathetic human being , ” and suggested that his physical and mental condition are such that he “ doesn ’ t know he ’ s alive.
” The president worked to assert vice presidential nominee Sen. Kamala Harris is the actual driver of Biden ’ s policy @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of Sen. Bernie Sanders , and telling supporters that if Biden were to win , Harris would become president “ in about a month.
” Later in the speech , Trump also told supporters that a Biden victory would “ permanently destroy the lives and dreams of tens of millions of Americans ... and lead [ to ] countless deaths from suicide.
” It isn ’ t clear that these sorts of attacks have changed public opinion ; recent polls indicate most Americans believe Biden is the stronger candidate on public safety , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Sunday found more voters see Biden as “ mentally sound ” than the president .
Trump wants to delegitimize the November election Trump devoted a great deal of time Saturday to going after the legitimacy of the November election , telling supporters that “ we have a rigged election .
It ’ s a rigged election.
” It ’ s not a new talking point for Trump , who has already mounted a sustained campaign against mail-in voting and the US Postal Service — and who continues to claim there was widespread voter @ @ @ @ @ @ @ there was not .
But in an election where as many as six in 10 Americans say they plan to vote early and a historic number of ballots are likely to be cast by mail , such rhetoric takes on a dangerous new dimension .
There ’ s a fair chance we won ’ t know who won on election night as ballots are counted — many states accept ballots postmarked on Election Day for days afterward — and Trump is already sending up a signal that he plans to dispute the results @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Day if early returns show him ahead .
“ The only way we ’ re tied is if they screw around with the ballots , which they will do in my opinion , ” Trump said Saturday .
In anticipation of a candidate announcing they have won before ballots are all counted , Facebook and Twitter have announced new policies prohibiting candidates from “ claiming victory before election results have been certified.
” Trump also suggested Saturday that his supporters should turn out as poll watchers , “ because with you people watching @ @ @ @ @ @ @ be pretty hard to cheat .
I ’ ll tell you , I wouldn ’ t want to be a cheater.
” The suggestion is a concerning one , however .
There is a history of GOP poll watchers engaging in voter intimidation — one that led to a since-expired federal consent decree curbing such activity .
With instances of armed Trump supporters engaging in pseudo-law enforcement vigilantism , there ’ s reason for concern that poll watching could lead to further voter intimidation in November .
In addition to his attacks on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ hold forth on the merits of his coronavirus response .
“ We ’ re at like , around 180,000 [ deaths ] , ” he told rallygoers Saturday .
“ We ’ ve done an incredible job.
” In reality , more than 193,000 people have died from Covid-19 in the US , and the US response has been uniquely poor compared to other nations .
On Friday alone — the first day in more than five months that Canada reported zero Covid-19 deaths — more than 1,000 Americans died .
As evidenced @ @ @ @ @ @ @ crowd , though , the Trump campaign has by and large decided to move on from the coronavirus , even as the US death toll continues to climb .
A gathering the size of the president ’ s rally flies in the face of virtually every pandemic best practice under the sun , and , in fact , Trump ’ s event was shunted from the Reno airport to neighboring Minden after Reno officials refused to allow the rally to be held for public health reasons .
As Vox ’ s Aaron Rupar @ @ @ @ @ @ @ North Carolina last week , the president ’ s insistence on holding rallies reflects an unwillingness to learn from past mistakes that borders on callousness : The recent batch of Trump rallies were the first since June 20 , when he held one at the BOK Center in Tulsa , Oklahoma , that ended up being a disaster .
The Trump campaign ’ s decision to ignore warnings from public health experts likely fueled a spike in coronavirus cases in the area .
“ In the past few days , we ’ ve @ @ @ @ @ @ @ we had several large events just over two weeks ago , so I guess we just connect the dots , ” Tulsa City/County Health Department Director Dr. Bruce Dart said days after the rally , according to the Associated Press .
Herman Cain , a prominent Trump supporter who was photographed at the rally without a mask , contracted Covid-19 after the rally and died .
In short , between spinning a fictional narrative on the pandemic , eroding trust in voting , and his personal attacks on Biden , Trump spent a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ alternate reality for himself and his supporters .
It wasn ’ t a policy speech — it was barely even a reelection message — but it was pure , unfiltered Trump .
Help keep Vox free for all Millions turn to Vox each month to understand what ’ s happening in the news , from the coronavirus crisis to a racial reckoning to what is , quite possibly , the most consequential presidential election of our lifetimes .
Our mission has never been more vital than it is in this moment : to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ distinctive brand of explanatory journalism takes resources — particularly during a pandemic and an economic downturn .
Even when the economy and the news advertising market recovers , your support will be a critical part of sustaining our resource-intensive work , and helping everyone make sense of an increasingly chaotic world .
Contribute today from as little as $ 3 .

President Donald Trump traveled to Minden, Nevada — a town about 50 miles south of Reno — for a rambling, grievance-filled campaign rally on Saturday.
Over the course of a 90-minute speech, Trump attacked mail-in voting, Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden, and Nevada Gov. Steve Sisolak, while lamenting his press coverage, long drives, and the fact he was not able to have Air Force One behind him as he spoke. He also once again suggested that he should be allowed to serve more than two terms in office, which would be unconstitutional.
Notably absent from his speech was anything approaching a cohesive second-term agenda or a policy platform. What little policy his speech did contain was delivered suggestively, in the context of what the president is against, including limiting fracking and teaching children “poisonous anti-American lies in school.” Far more of Trump’s remarks focused on attempts to demean his opponents and preemptively cast doubt on an election that national polls show him trailing in.
Trump has spent much of the summer searching for an attack that will stick to Biden — that he’s senile; that he’s a puppet of the radical left; that he’ll usher in the apocalypse — and all three messages were on display in abundance Saturday.
Biden, Trump claimed Saturday, is “unable” and a “pathetic human being,” and suggested that his physical and mental condition are such that he “doesn’t know he’s alive.” The president worked to assert vice presidential nominee Sen. Kamala Harris is the actual driver of Biden’s policy, incorrectly calling her to the left of Sen. Bernie Sanders, and telling supporters that if Biden were to win, Harris would become president “in about a month.” Later in the speech, Trump also told supporters that a Biden victory would “permanently destroy the lives and dreams of tens of millions of Americans ... and lead [to] countless deaths from suicide.”
Trump, slurring, calls Joe Biden "a pathetic human being." If a guy sounding like this approached you on the other street, you'd run the other way. pic.twitter.com/cIcnxolFGQ — Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) September 13, 2020
It isn’t clear that these sorts of attacks have changed public opinion; recent polls indicate most Americans believe Biden is the stronger candidate on public safety, and a new Fox News poll released Sunday found more voters see Biden as “mentally sound” than the president.
Trump wants to delegitimize the November election
Trump devoted a great deal of time Saturday to going after the legitimacy of the November election, telling supporters that “we have a rigged election. It’s a rigged election.”
"We have a rigged election. It's a rigged election" -- Trump plants the seeds for challenging the results of November's election pic.twitter.com/iTsOSPAweG — Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) September 13, 2020
It’s not a new talking point for Trump, who has already mounted a sustained campaign against mail-in voting and the US Postal Service — and who continues to claim there was widespread voter fraud in the 2016 election, when there was not.
But in an election where as many as six in 10 Americans say they plan to vote early and a historic number of ballots are likely to be cast by mail, such rhetoric takes on a dangerous new dimension. There’s a fair chance we won’t know who won on election night as ballots are counted — many states accept ballots postmarked on Election Day for days afterward — and Trump is already sending up a signal that he plans to dispute the results or even prematurely claim victory on Election Day if early returns show him ahead.
“The only way we’re tied is if they screw around with the ballots, which they will do in my opinion,” Trump said Saturday.
In anticipation of a candidate announcing they have won before ballots are all counted, Facebook and Twitter have rolled out new policies prohibiting candidates from “claiming victory before election results have been certified.”
Trump also suggested Saturday that his supporters should turn out as poll watchers, “because with you people watching the polls it’s going to be pretty hard to cheat. I’ll tell you, I wouldn’t want to be a cheater.”
"I hope you're all going to be poll watchers, because with you people watching the polls it's going to be pretty hard to cheat. I'll tell you, I wouldn't want to be a cheater" -- Trump pic.twitter.com/zihzzgx6LI — Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) September 13, 2020
The suggestion is a concerning one, however. There is a history of GOP poll watchers engaging in voter intimidation — one that led to a since-expired federal consent decree curbing such activity. With instances of armed Trump supporters engaging in pseudo-law enforcement vigilantism, there’s reason for concern that poll watching could lead to further voter intimidation in November.
Trump is still pretending Covid-19 doesn’t exist
In addition to his attacks on voting, Trump used his Saturday rally to hold forth on the merits of his coronavirus response.
“We’re at, like, around 180,000 [deaths],” he told rallygoers Saturday. “We’ve done an incredible job.”
"We're at like, around 180,000 ... we've done an incredible job" -- Trump undercounts the US coronavirus death toll by about 15,000 human beings pic.twitter.com/VNFwf4XbII — Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) September 13, 2020
In reality, more than 193,000 people have died of Covid-19 in the US, and the US response has been uniquely poor compared to other nations. On Friday alone — the first day in more than five months that Canada reported zero Covid-19 deaths — more than 1,000 Americans died.
As evidenced by Saturday’s unmasked and undistanced crowd, though, the Trump campaign has by and large decided to move on from the coronavirus, even as the US death toll continues to climb. A gathering the size of the president’s rally flies in the face of virtually every pandemic best practice, and, in fact, Trump’s event was shunted from the Reno airport to neighboring Minden after Reno officials refused to allow the rally to be held for public health reasons.
On Sunday, Trump held another Nevada rally, this time indoors, which is likely even more of a health risk and something the campaign had avoided since criticism of its Tulsa, Oklahoma, rally in June.
As Vox’s Aaron Rupar wrote after an outdoor Trump rally in North Carolina last week, the president’s insistence on holding rallies reflects an unwillingness to learn from past mistakes that borders on callousness:
The recent batch of Trump rallies were the first since June 20, when he held one at the BOK Center in Tulsa, Oklahoma, that ended up being a disaster. The Trump campaign’s decision to ignore warnings from public health experts likely fueled a spike in coronavirus cases in the area. “In the past few days, we’ve seen almost 500 new cases, and we had several large events just over two weeks ago, so I guess we just connect the dots,” Tulsa City/County Health Department Director Dr. Bruce Dart said days after the rally, according to the Associated Press. Herman Cain, a prominent Trump supporter who was photographed at the rally without a mask, contracted Covid-19 after the rally and died.
In short, between spinning a fictional narrative on the pandemic, eroding trust in voting, and his personal attacks on Biden, Trump spent a disparate amount of time Saturday constructing an alternate reality for himself and his supporters. It wasn’t a policy speech — it was barely even a reelection message — but it was pure, unfiltered Trump.


vox--2020-09-14--4 races to watch in Delaware’s primary

4 races to watch in Delaware’s primary

Delaware might be the First State , but it has the last-in-the-nation primary .
The second-smallest state will conclude the nation ’ s primary season Tuesday with several key races at the state and county levels , including primaries for US Senate and a governor ’ s race .
The US Senate Democratic primary features a now-familiar dynamic , a center-left incumbent facing off against an insurgent progressive challenger who supports the Green New Deal and Medicare-for-all .
( Though the race here between Sen. Chris Coons and his challenger doesn ’ t seem nearly as close as some of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in 2020 . )
Meanwhile , the state ’ s GOP governors primary is a six-candidate contest that will serve as a key ideological bellwether for a seemingly waning Delaware Republican Party .
More than 100,000 absentee ballots were requested for the state primary Tuesday , and about 56,000 had already been returned as of last Wednesday , according to the state Department of Elections .
The state ’ s late primary will result in a compressed general election season ; mail-in ballots for the general will need to be sent out just @ @ @ @ @ @ @ close at 8 pm Tuesday , and completed mail-in ballots must be received by Election Day in order to be counted .
Here are four key primary races we ’ re keeping an eye on in Delaware .
Incumbent Democratic Sen. Chris Coons was first elected in 2014 , and in the six years he ’ s been in office , he ’ s earned a reputation as a moderate Democrat , albeit a socially liberal one , who has shown the ability to work across the aisle on key issues .
In @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s facing off against progressive challenger Jess Scarane , a 35-year-old candidate who was endorsed by the Democratic Socialists of America and who is pushing for a Green New Deal and Medicare-for-all .
“ The Senate race is interesting because as this is , this has been kind of a storyline within Democratic primaries of you have a more centrist incumbent being challenged by a more progressive candidate , ” University of Delaware professor Paul Brewer , a local politics expert , told Vox .
Brewer compared this year ’ s primary to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the state ’ s senior Sen. Tom Carper and progressive Kerri Evelyn Harris , in which the challenger from the left earned about 30 percent of the vote .
“ That ’ s a substantial amount of support .
On the other hand , she didn ’ t come close to beating him in the primary , ” said Brewer .
“ One of the things to look for is [ whether ] Scarane comes closer to Coons .
It would be a pretty big upset if she beat him.
” While some @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Delaware Democrats see these races differently .
“ There ’ s often a question that gets asked about whether primaries are good for the party or bad for the party , ” Delaware Democratic Party Executive Director Jesse Chadderdon told Vox .
“ More than anything , they ’ re symbolic of what is healthy about the party , which is just this huge influx of new ideas and new energy.
” On the Republican side , James DeMartino and Lauren Witzke are facing off for the right to challenge a Senate seat @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
A six-candidate Republican primary for governor will test the direction of the state party Ten years ago , the average Delaware Republican statewide candidate was typically moderate and business-friendly , but according to Chadderdon , times have changed .
“ I don ’ t know where that voice in the party is anymore , the stereotypical chamber of commerce Republican.
” However , Delaware Republican Party chair Jane Brady told Vox that those types of politicians don ’ t match with today ’ s Republican voters in the state .
“ I @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Republicans in Delaware that fit what I think is an outdated stereotype of who the Republican voters are and who Republican candidates are , ” she said .
Brady is excited about this year ’ s field because she ’ s been working to expand the party ’ s electoral bench .
Of the six candidates in this year ’ s primary , three candidates stand out .
Scott Walker is a relative political outsider who made a name for himself two years ago when he won a surprise victory in the Republican @ @ @ @ @ @ @ race .
He also has a history of making incendiary remarks .
While running for US House in 2018 , Walker wrote a lengthy tirade on Facebook , calling Carper “ a redneck , ” accusing all Democrats of being racist , accused Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg of “ hating Israel , ” challenging former Vice President and Delaware native Joe Biden to a debate and calling him a “ racist loser , ” and calling his Democratic opponent Rep. Lisa Blunt Rochester an “ Aunt Tom.
” Walker faces a cadre of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Bonini , who was the party ’ s nominee four years ago , losing to now-Democratic incumbent John Carney .
But despite the presence of two former statewide nominees in the race , neither of them managed to grab the state party ’ s endorsement .
That went instead to Julianne Murray , who was the only one of the three to attend the state party convention , where she gave an anti-mask , anti-lockdown speech .
“ There ’ s some differences [ between the candidates ] , but they ’ re @ @ @ @ @ @ @ issues that if you supported any one of them , you will be able to support our ultimate candidate .
I ’ m excited about that , ” said Brady .
Brewer is watching closely to see what the state ’ s Republican party voters are looking for this year .
“ It ’ ll be interesting to see what the Republican primary electorate really wants , because at the statewide level , they ’ ve had a bad 10 years , ” said Brewer .
“ I ’ ve lived here for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ has gone right for the Republican GOP and Republican Delaware party .
They ’ ve had a hard time fielding credible statewide candidates.
” In Delaware , the bulk of the local government services are provided at the county level , making races for the three county governments especially key in the state .
The long primary season has bred some sharp intraparty fault lines in several key county races .
In New Castle County , sitting county executive Matt Meyer came under fire from organized labor when they felt he didn ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ labor-written apprenticeship bill .
He also upset the local police union during an ongoing contract dispute .
As a result , those groups recruited former JPMorgan employee and state employee Maggie Jones to challenge Meyer .
Jones , a Democrat , is backed by the Trump-supporting , anti-Black Lives Matter Fraternal Order of Police Lodge 5 , which represents police in the county .
In the state ’ s biggest city , Wilmington , 29-year-old LGBTQ activist Sarah McBride is running for an open Senate seat in the state ’ s First District @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the first openly transgender state senator in the nation and the first trans elected official in Delaware .
McBride first rose to prominence four years ago when she became the first openly trans person to address a major party convention at the 2016 Democratic National Convention .
“ My interest in politics , and my interest in government , was always about making change , whether that was in elected positions or in working for campaigns , ” McBride told Vox last year .
“ It wasn ’ t about the position or @ @ @ @ @ @ @ get stuff done.
” Though she faces a primary challenger in Joseph McCole , who ran a primary campaign for the same seat last cycle , McBride is expected to win Tuesday and move on to face former Democrat and executive secretary of the Wilmington Housing Authority Board of Commissioners Steve Washington in November , where she will be the favorite .
But Democratic voters in her district , including Chadderdon , feel that McBride would take the job seriously if she ’ s elected .
“ On a day-to-day basis , when @ @ @ @ @ @ @ issues are being talked about , [ her identity ] just doesn ’ t come up , ” said Chadderdon .
“ There are people who are excited about the historical nature of it , I don ’ t mean to downplay that .
Just from talking to my neighbors , there ’ s an excitement that we have .
We ’ re going to be really well-represented.
” Help keep Vox free for all Millions turn to Vox each month to understand what ’ s happening in the news , from the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ what is , quite possibly , the most consequential presidential election of our lifetimes .
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Delaware might be the First State, but it has the last-in-the-nation primary.
The second-smallest state will conclude the nation’s primary season Tuesday with several key races at the state and county levels, including primaries for US Senate and a governor’s race.
The US Senate Democratic primary features a now-familiar dynamic, a center-left incumbent facing off against an insurgent progressive challenger who supports the Green New Deal and Medicare-for-all. (Though the race here between Sen. Chris Coons and his challenger doesn’t seem nearly as close as some of the House primaries we’ve seen in 2020.) Meanwhile, the state’s GOP governors primary is a six-candidate contest that will serve as a key ideological bellwether for a seemingly waning Delaware Republican Party.
More than 100,000 absentee ballots were requested for the state primary Tuesday, and about 56,000 had already been returned as of last Wednesday, according to the state Department of Elections. The state’s late primary will result in a compressed general election season; mail-in ballots for the general will need to be sent out just four days after the primary.
Polls close at 8 pm Tuesday, and completed mail-in ballots must be received by Election Day in order to be counted. Here are four key primary races we’re keeping an eye on in Delaware.
Moderate vs. progressive: A familiar Democratic primary dynamic
Incumbent Democratic Sen. Chris Coons was first elected in 2010, and in the 10 years he’s been in office, he’s earned a reputation as a moderate Democrat, albeit a socially liberal one, who has shown the ability to work across the aisle on key issues. In his first reelection campaign, he’s facing off against progressive challenger Jess Scarane, a 35-year-old candidate who was endorsed by the Democratic Socialists of America and who is pushing for a Green New Deal and Medicare-for-all.
“The Senate race is interesting because as this is, this has been kind of a storyline within Democratic primaries of you have a more centrist incumbent being challenged by a more progressive candidate,” University of Delaware professor Paul Brewer, a local politics expert, told Vox.
Brewer compared this year’s primary to a similar race two years ago between the state’s senior Sen. Tom Carper and progressive Kerri Evelyn Harris, in which the challenger from the left earned about 30 percent of the vote. “That’s a substantial amount of support. On the other hand, she didn’t come close to beating him in the primary,” said Brewer. “One of the things to look for is [whether] Scarane comes closer to Coons. It would be a pretty big upset if she beat him.”
While some recent Democratic primaries have turned bitter, Delaware Democrats see these races differently. “There’s often a question that gets asked about whether primaries are good for the party or bad for the party,” Delaware Democratic Party executive director Jesse Chadderdon told Vox. “More than anything, they’re symbolic of what is healthy about the party, which is just this huge influx of new ideas and new energy.”
On the Republican side, James DeMartino and Lauren Witzke are facing off for the right to challenge a Senate seat that Cook Political Report rates safely Democratic.
A six-candidate Republican primary for governor will test the direction of the state party
Ten years ago, the average Delaware Republican statewide candidate was typically moderate and business-friendly, but according to Chadderdon, times have changed. “I don’t know where that voice in the party is anymore, the stereotypical chamber of commerce Republican.”
Delaware Republican Party chair Jane Brady told Vox that those politicians don’t match with today’s Republican voters in the state. “I don’t think there are many Republicans in Delaware that fit what I think is an outdated stereotype of who the Republican voters are and who Republican candidates are,” she said.
Brady is excited about this year’s field because she’s been working to expand the party’s electoral bench. Of the six candidates in this year’s primary, three candidates stand out. Scott Walker is a relative political outsider who made a name for himself two years ago when he won a surprise victory in the Republican primary for the state’s House race. He also has a history of making incendiary remarks.
While running for US House in 2018, Walker wrote a lengthy tirade on Facebook, calling Carper “a redneck,” accusing all Democrats of being racist, accused Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg of “hating Israel,” challenging former Vice President and Delaware native Joe Biden to a debate and calling him a “racist loser,” and calling his Democratic opponent Rep. Lisa Blunt Rochester an “Aunt Tom.”
Walker faces a cadre of conservative candidates, including state Sen. Colin Bonini, who was the party’s nominee four years ago, losing to now-Democratic incumbent John Carney. But despite the presence of two former statewide nominees in the race, neither of them managed to grab the state party’s endorsement. That went instead to Julianne Murray, who was the only one of the three to attend the state party convention, where she gave an anti-mask, anti-lockdown speech.
“There’s some differences [between the candidates], but they’re similar enough in their views on the issues that if you supported any one of them, you will be able to support our ultimate candidate. I’m excited about that,” said Brady.
Brewer is watching closely to see what the state’s Republican party voters are looking for this year. “It’ll be interesting to see what the Republican primary electorate really wants, because at the statewide level, they’ve had a bad 10 years,” said Brewer. “I’ve lived here for about nine years and not a lot has gone right for the Republican GOP and Republican Delaware party. They’ve had a hard time fielding credible statewide candidates.”
County and state legislative races to watch
In Delaware, the bulk of the local government services are provided at the county level, making races for the three county governments especially key in the state. The long primary season has bred some sharp intraparty fault lines in several key county races.
In New Castle County, sitting county executive Matt Meyer came under fire from organized labor when they felt he didn’t offer sufficiently full-throated support for a labor-written apprenticeship bill. He also upset the local police union during an ongoing contract dispute.
As a result, those groups recruited former JPMorgan employee and state employee Maggie Jones to challenge Meyer. Jones, a Democrat, is backed by the Trump-supporting, anti-Black Lives Matter Fraternal Order of Police Lodge 5, which represents police in the county.
In the state’s biggest city, Wilmington, 30-year-old LGBTQ activist Sarah McBride is running for an open Senate seat in the state’s First District. If elected, she would become the first openly transgender state senator in the nation and the first trans elected official in Delaware.
McBride first rose to prominence four years ago when she became the first openly trans person to address a major party convention at the 2016 Democratic National Convention.
“My interest in politics, and my interest in government, was always about making change, whether that was in elected positions or in working for campaigns,” McBride told Vox last year. “It wasn’t about the position or the title ... I just wanted to get stuff done.”
Though she faces a primary challenger in Joseph McCole, who ran a primary campaign for the same seat last cycle, McBride is expected to win Tuesday and move on to face former Democrat and executive secretary of the Wilmington Housing Authority Board of Commissioners Steve Washington in November, where she will be the favorite. But many Democratic voters in her district, including Chadderdon, feel that McBride would take the job seriously if she’s elected.
“On a day-to-day basis, when Sarah is talking to voters, when issues are being talked about, [her identity] just doesn’t come up,” said Chadderdon. “There are people who are excited about the historical nature of it, I don’t mean to downplay that. Just from talking to my neighbors, there’s an excitement that we have. We’re going to be really well-represented.”