vox--2020-10-28--Republicans accuse Twitter’s Jack Dorsey and other Big Tech CEOs of violating their free speech righ

Republicans accuse Twitter’s Jack Dorsey and other Big Tech CEOs of violating their free speech rights

CEOs from two of the biggest companies in the world ( and Twitter ) testified in front of the Senate Commerce Committee on Wednesday in a hearing that was billed as a deliberation over Section 230 .
It ended up being more about castigating social media platforms both for censoring voices too much and for not censoring them enough .
Facebook ’ s Mark Zuckerberg , Google ’ s Sundar Pichai , and Twitter ’ s Jack Dorsey appeared before an almost entirely virtual panel of legislators , none of whom seemed particularly thrilled with the CEOs ’ work .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ political party .
Republicans generally used the hearing to scold the companies for censoring conservative voices to the extent that they may influence the outcome of the election in Biden ’ s favor .
Democrats objected to having a hearing at all and asked the CEOs what they were doing to suppress violent extremism and election interference on their platforms .
If nothing else , the hearings showed a bipartisan dislike and mistrust of social media platforms and a desire to do something about them .
The hearing was titled “ Does Section @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Tech Bad Behavior ?
” — that bad behavior being , to its vocal conservative opponents , social media platforms censoring political viewpoints with which they disagree .
But the law is much bigger than that .
Section 230 allows websites to host content from users without being liable for it .
For instance , you can sue a Twitter user for a defamatory tweet , but you can ’ t sue Twitter itself .
This is what enables these sites to exist in the first place .
Without immunity from lawsuits over @ @ @ @ @ @ @ allow it at all .
The law also allows platforms to moderate user content as they see fit without losing that immunity , a fact that has become a major sticking point for conservatives who feel that platforms are unfairly censoring them .
While Attorney General Bill Barr and several Republican legislators want to change Section 230 to require websites to be “ politically neutral ” in moderation decisions , President Trump has called for an outright repeal of the law .
In fact , the president repeated that demand while Wednesday ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Democrats have their own issues with Section 230 and Big Tech in general .
But in the hearing , those concerns took a back seat to their grievances against its timing and the pro-Trump messages they believed committee Republicans were using it to convey .
Most Republicans barely mentioned Section 230 and instead focused on social media moderation and a perceived silencing of conservative voices , the oft-noted examples of such being President Trump ’ s fact-checked tweets and the New York Post ’ s story on Hunter Biden , which Twitter and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ There were also several questions about the political ideologies of employees and people who make moderation decisions , with the implication being that very few of them are conservative .
Sens .
Ted Cruz ( R-TX ) and Ron Johnson ( R-WI ) were especially emphatic about these points .
Cruz , a frequent critic of Section 230 , even advertised his appearance at the hearing on Twitter and Facebook the night before , calling it a “ Free Speech Showdown , ” complete with custom art that resembled a poster for a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ by saying the CEOs testifying before him “ collectively pose the single greatest threat to free speech in America and the greatest threat we have to free and fair elections.
” His use of his time didn ’ t really get better from there .
“ Mr .
Dorsey , who the hell elected you and put you in charge of what the media are allowed to report and what the American people are allowed to hear , and why do you persist in behaving as a Democratic Super PAC ?
” Cruz @ @ @ @ @ @ @ not in charge of those things .
Cruz then retweeted several news articles containing his quote as well as posting his own video of it , indicating that his question to Dorsey was meant more for political theater than anything else .
Johnson tried to nail the CEOs down on how many of their employees are liberal and how many are conservative .
In response , Dorsey said his company doesn ’ t keep track of employees ’ politics , Pichai said he believed his employees have many different viewpoints , and Zuckerberg @ @ @ @ @ @ @ sure but assumes Facebook skews liberal — which was the only answer Johnson seemed to believe .
Several Republicans also pointed out that Twitter let untrue or violent tweets from other world leaders stay up while punishing Trump for his tweets , even though , as Sen. Roger Wicker ( R-MS ) said , they are “ true.
” One example was a series of tweets from Iranian Ayatollah Ali Khamenei that seemed to promote violence against Israel , which are still on the platform .
“ We did not find those to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ consider them sabre-rattling , which is part of the speech of world leaders in concert with other countries , ” Dorsey said .
“ Speech against our own people or a country ’ s own citizens , we believe , is different and can cause more immediate harm.
” Some Democrats used their time to criticize the timing and subject of the hearing , calling it part of a coordinated Republican effort to bully platforms into keeping conservative-leaning content up , even if it violates their policies , as well as to amplify @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to try to influence the outcome of the election .
Others brought up how social media platforms have facilitated violent extremist groups to meet and organize and foreign powers to influence the elections .
They asked the CEOs what they plan to do to prevent or squelch this content on their respective platforms as the election approaches , and whether they would pledge to stop or prevent election interference on their platforms .
Dorsey , Pichai , and Zuckerberg all pledged to do so .
Sen. Amy Klobuchar ( D-MN ) noted that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ more time on it , and divisive political content has been shown to contribute to that engagement .
“ Does that bother you , what it ’ s done to our politics ?
” she asked .
Zuckerberg said the platform is designed to show users the content that ’ s most important to them .
“ Most of the content on the systems is not political , it ’ s things like making sure you can see when your cousin had her baby , ” he said .
“ That ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , the cousins and the babies here , ” Klobuchar said .
“ I ’ m talking about conspiracy theories … I think it ’ s been corrosive.
” But some senators actually took the time to ask the CEOs seemingly genuine questions about their moderation policies and algorithms as well as how Section 230 could be re-written to provide more clarity to users .
Sen. Shelley Capito ( R-WV ) asked if giving Section 230 ’ s “ otherwise objectionable ” rule for the type of content platforms are allowed to moderate @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Zuckerberg noted that having to spell out which content is objectionable and which is not would limit their ability to moderate bullying or harassment .
Dorsey and Zuckerberg said multiple times during the hearing that they would be open to increased transparency on their platforms with regard to moderation decisions .
Sen. Brian Schatz ( D-HI ) , who proposed a bipartisan bill about Section 230 , said he hoped to have “ good faith ” discussion about the law after the election .
A future hearing about Section 230 is certainly @ @ @ @ @ @ @ outcome , as Trump ’ s feelings are well-known and Biden has said he is in favor of revoking the law — a stance that a campaign official told Recode hasn ’ t changed .
The co-author of Section 230 , Sen. Ron Wyden ( D-OR ) is not a member of the Commerce Committee and so wasn ’ t at the hearing .
But he wasn ’ t quiet about it , issuing a statement along the lines of many Democrats ’ complaints .
“ After watching the hearing today , I @ @ @ @ @ @ @ have read the First Amendment , let alone Section 230 , ” Wyden said .
“ Their obsession with forcing private companies to print misinformation , lies and hate speech is unconstitutional and lays bare how little this is about Section 230 and how much it is a transparent attempt to work the refs a week before the election.
” Wyden added , “ Today ’ s sad spectacle shows how far this body is from having a rational debate about how to make the internet a better place.
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CEOs from two of the biggest companies in the world (and Twitter) testified in front of the Senate Commerce Committee on Wednesday in a hearing that was billed as a deliberation over Section 230. It ended up being more about castigating social media platforms both for censoring voices too much and for not censoring them enough.
Facebook’s Mark Zuckerberg, Google’s Sundar Pichai, and Twitter’s Jack Dorsey appeared before an almost entirely virtual panel of legislators, none of whom seemed particularly thrilled with the CEOs’ work. But their complaints differed depending on their political party. Republicans generally used the hearing to scold the companies for censoring conservative voices to the extent that they may influence the outcome of the election in Biden’s favor. Democrats objected to having a hearing at all and asked the CEOs what they were doing to suppress violent extremism and election interference on their platforms.
If nothing else, the hearings showed a bipartisan dislike and mistrust of social media platforms and a desire to do something about them.
The hearing was titled “Does Section 230’s Sweeping Immunity Enable Big Tech Bad Behavior?” — that bad behavior being, to its vocal conservative opponents, social media platforms censoring political viewpoints with which they disagree. But the law is much bigger than that. Section 230 allows websites to host content from users without being liable for it. For instance, you can sue a Twitter user for a defamatory tweet, but you can’t sue Twitter itself. This is what enables these sites to exist in the first place. Without immunity from lawsuits over third-party content, platforms wouldn’t allow it at all.
The law also allows platforms to moderate user content as they see fit without losing that immunity, a fact that has become a major sticking point for conservatives who feel that platforms are unfairly censoring them. While Attorney General Bill Barr and several Republican legislators want to change Section 230 to require websites to be “politically neutral” in moderation decisions, President Trump has called for an outright repeal of the law. In fact, the president repeated that demand while Wednesday’s hearing was still in progress:
The USA doesn’t have Freedom of the Press, we have Suppression of the Story, or just plain Fake News. So much has been learned in the last two weeks about how corrupt our Media is, and now Big Tech, maybe even worse. Repeal Section 230! — Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) October 28, 2020
Democrats have their own issues with Section 230 and Big Tech in general. But in the hearing, those concerns took a back seat to their grievances against its timing and the pro-Trump messages they believed committee Republicans were using it to convey.
Most Republicans barely mentioned Section 230 and instead focused on social media moderation and a perceived silencing of conservative voices, the oft-noted examples of such being President Trump’s fact-checked tweets and the New York Post’s story on Hunter Biden, which Twitter and Facebook initially limited the spread of. There were also several questions about the political ideologies of employees and people who make moderation decisions, with the implication being that very few of them are conservative.
Sens. Ted Cruz (R-TX) and Ron Johnson (R-WI) were especially emphatic about these points. Cruz, a frequent critic of Section 230, even advertised his appearance at the hearing on Twitter and Facebook the night before, calling it a “Free Speech Showdown,” complete with custom art that resembled a poster for a boxing match. Cruz opened his questions by saying the CEOs testifying before him “collectively pose the single greatest threat to free speech in America and the greatest threat we have to free and fair elections.” His use of his time didn’t really get better from there.
“Mr. Dorsey, who the hell elected you and put you in charge of what the media are allowed to report and what the American people are allowed to hear, and why do you persist in behaving as a Democratic Super PAC?” Cruz demanded. Dorsey responded that he is not in charge of those things. Cruz then retweeted several news articles containing his quote as well as posting his own video of it, indicating that his question to Dorsey was meant more for political theater than anything else.
Johnson tried to nail the CEOs down on how many of their employees are liberal and how many are conservative. In response, Dorsey said his company doesn’t keep track of employees’ politics, Pichai said he believed his employees have many different viewpoints, and Zuckerberg said he didn’t know for sure but assumes Facebook skews liberal — which was the only answer Johnson seemed to believe.
Several Republicans also pointed out that Twitter let untrue or violent tweets from other world leaders stay up while punishing Trump for his tweets, even though, as Sen. Roger Wicker (R-MS) said, they are “true.” One example was a series of tweets from Iranian Ayatollah Ali Khamenei that seemed to promote violence against Israel, which are still on the platform.
“We did not find those to violate our terms of service because we consider them sabre-rattling, which is part of the speech of world leaders in concert with other countries,” Dorsey said. “Speech against our own people or a country’s own citizens, we believe, is different and can cause more immediate harm.”
Some Democrats used their time to criticize the timing and subject of the hearing, calling it part of a coordinated Republican effort to bully platforms into keeping conservative-leaning content up, even if it violates their policies, as well as to amplify the New York Post’s story to try to influence the outcome of the election. Others brought up how social media platforms have facilitated violent extremist groups to meet and organize and foreign powers to influence the elections. They asked the CEOs what they plan to do to prevent or squelch this content on their respective platforms as the election approaches, and whether they would pledge to stop or prevent election interference on their platforms. Dorsey, Pichai, and Zuckerberg all pledged to do so.
Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-MN) noted that Facebook makes more money when people spend more time on it, and divisive political content has been shown to contribute to that engagement.
“Does that bother you, what it’s done to our politics?” she asked.
Zuckerberg said the platform is designed to show users the content that’s most important to them.
“Most of the content on the systems is not political, it’s things like making sure you can see when your cousin had her baby,” he said.
“That’s not what I’m talking about, the cousins and the babies here,” Klobuchar said. “I’m talking about conspiracy theories … I think it’s been corrosive.”
But some senators actually took the time to ask the CEOs seemingly genuine questions about their moderation policies and algorithms as well as how Section 230 could be re-written to provide more clarity to users. Sen. Shelley Capito (R-WV) asked if giving Section 230’s “otherwise objectionable” rule for the type of content platforms are allowed to moderate more specific guidelines would be a solution. Zuckerberg noted that having to spell out which content is objectionable and which is not would limit their ability to moderate bullying or harassment. Dorsey and Zuckerberg said multiple times during the hearing that they would be open to increased transparency on their platforms with regard to moderation decisions.
Sen. Brian Schatz (D-HI), who proposed a bipartisan bill about Section 230, said he hoped to have “good faith” discussion about the law after the election. A future hearing about Section 230 is certainly possible regardless of the election’s outcome, as Trump’s feelings are well-known and Biden has said he is in favor of revoking the law — a stance that a campaign official told Recode hasn’t changed.
The co-author of Section 230, Sen. Ron Wyden (D-OR) is not a member of the Commerce Committee and so wasn’t at the hearing. But he wasn’t quiet about it, issuing a statement along the lines of many Democrats’ complaints.
“After watching the hearing today, I don’t believe my Republican colleagues have read the First Amendment, let alone Section 230,” Wyden said. “Their obsession with forcing private companies to print misinformation, lies and hate speech is unconstitutional and lays bare how little this is about Section 230 and how much it is a transparent attempt to work the refs a week before the election.”
Wyden added, “Today’s sad spectacle shows how far this body is from having a rational debate about how to make the internet a better place.”
Open Sourced is made possible by Omidyar Network. All Open Sourced content is editorially independent and produced by our journalists.


vox--2020-10-28--The Instagram aesthetic that made QAnon mainstream

At first glance , the memes under the hashtag # SaveTheChildren don ’ t look that different from anything else you ’ d expect to see on Instagram .
With a similar visual language to the social justice infographic slideshows that dominated the social media platform this summer , the posts feature soft pastel colors and trendy fonts , telling viewers to “ wake up ” about child trafficking .
What people seeing these images — and some of the people posting them — might not know , however , is that the # SaveTheChildren hashtag is being used by @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to a much wider audience .
After three years of leaving QAnon largely unchecked , Facebook said in August it had removed hundreds of QAnon Facebook Groups and Pages for “ discussions of potential violence.
” But as that was happening , membership on Facebook Groups and Pages branded as anti-child trafficking grew a stunning 3,000 percent — and inside those groups , users predominantly shared QAnon content .
Watch the video above to see how high-profile accounts — including celebrities , mommy bloggers , and wellness influencers — helped spread # SaveTheChildren @ @ @ @ @ @ @ spread of QAnon this summer .
You can find this video and all of Vox ’ s videos on YouTube .
Subscribe for the latest .
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At first glance, the memes under the hashtag #SaveTheChildren don’t look that different from anything else you’d expect to see on Instagram. With a similar visual language to the social justice infographic slideshows that dominated the social media platform this summer, the posts feature soft pastel colors and trendy fonts, telling viewers to “wake up” about child trafficking.
What people seeing these images — and some of the people posting them — might not know, however, is that the #SaveTheChildren hashtag is being used by the QAnon movement to spread its ideology to a much wider audience.
After three years of leaving QAnon largely unchecked, Facebook said in August it had removed hundreds of QAnon Facebook Groups and Pages for “discussions of potential violence.” But as that was happening, membership on Facebook Groups and Pages branded as anti-child trafficking grew a stunning 3,000 percent — and inside those groups, users predominantly shared QAnon content.
2/ Using @crowdtangle aggregate membership on September 16 was ~330K and a week later it is at 505k this represents growth of 3,028.66% since July 2020. The spike in the community started the week of July 26th pic.twitter.com/boh36dw3XD — Marc-André Argentino (@_MAArgentino) September 23, 2020
Watch the video above to see how high-profile accounts — including celebrities, mommy bloggers, and wellness influencers — helped spread #SaveTheChildren, and what it meant for the spread of QAnon this summer.
You can find this video and all of Vox’s videos on YouTube. Subscribe for the latest.


vox--2020-10-28--Big Oil’s hopes are pinned on plastics. It won’t end well.

The fossil fuel industry has not been doing well lately .
Even before the Covid-19 pandemic hit , growth in global demand had slowed to 1 percent annually .
Now , lockdowns and distancing to stop the spread of the coronavirus have decimated the industry .
The International Energy Agency ( IEA ) recently released projections of rapid short-term decline in global demand , to the tune of 9 percent for oil , 8 percent for coal , and 5 percent for gas .
Depending on how long and severe the economic crisis proves to be , it will take @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , with electric vehicles cutting into oil demand by the end of the decade , it may never fully recover .
Industry analysts like Carbon Tracker ’ s Kingsmill Bond are speculating that 2019 may turn out to be the peak of fossil fuel demand , and historically , in other industries , a peak in demand “ tends to mark the beginning of a period of low prices and poor returns , ” says Bond .
But the industry has a response to this dire forecast , and it can be summarized @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , plastics represent a fairly small sliver of oil demand .
Annually , the world consumes around 4,500 million tonnes ( mt ) of oil but only around 1,000mt of petrochemicals ( oil and natural gas used to make chemical products ) , and of that 1,000mt , only about 350mt are plastics .
( A tonne is a metric ton , about 1.1 US tons . )
Nonetheless , plastics are commonly projected to be the biggest source of new demand for oil over coming decades — in some projections , the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ projections that the industry is using to justify billions in new projects , as oil companies across the world shift investment toward petrochemicals .
And Big Oil is working its hardest to make the projections come true : The New York Times recently ran an investigative piece revealing the industry ’ s plans to push more plastic , and plastic waste , into Kenya .
Plastics are the thin reed upon which the industry is placing all its hopes .
But a new report released in September by Carbon Tracker throws a big @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
It argues that , far from a reliable source of growth , plastics are uniquely vulnerable to disruption .
They are coming under increasing scrutiny and regulation across the world .
Huge consumer product companies like Unilever are phasing them out .
And the public is turning against them .
If existing solutions are fully implemented , growth in plastics could fall to zero .
And if that happens , then there is no remaining source of net oil demand growth and 2019 will almost certainly prove to be the year of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ look at a few highlights from the report .
Plastics are supposed to drive most oil demand growth The report breaks down the projections of two widely respected sources of energy data and analysis , BP and the IEA .
From 2020 to 2040 , BP expects plastics to represent 95 percent of the net growth in demand for oil .
In the IEA projections , plastics are the biggest single source of demand growth , representing 45 percent of the total .
Both BP and IEA have the plastics industry growing at @ @ @ @ @ @ @ year .
Oil majors are more bullish .
They claim the plastics industry will maintain the rate of growth it has shown since 2010 , i.e.
, 4 percent .
( For instance , Exxon touted 4 percent at its May 2020 investor day . )
That kind of growth would mean a doubling of demand in 18 to 24 years , “ and this appears to be what the industry is tooling up for , ” says the report .
“ The petrochemical industry already faces huge overcapacity , but is planning @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on 80mt of new capacity.
” Global and national oil companies are shifting investment into petrochemicals , from Saudi Arabia to China .
But the industry ’ s rosy growth projections may not come to pass .
“ In order to reach global demand growth of 4 percent , you ’ ve got to have 2 percent growth across the OECD , 4 percent growth in China , and 6 percent growth in the rest of the world , ” says Bond , a lead author of the report .
“ I would @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a bit of a stretch.
” Four reasons plastics may not grow as forecasted Industry projections of growth in plastics take place in a bit of a dreamworld , ignoring several recent trends and changes .
The report identifies four .
1 .
Rising carbon emissions are not cool in the age of the Paris agreement Calculating the carbon footprint of plastics is a complicated business — it produces CO2 at every stage of its lifecycle , including disposal — but the best research suggests that it averages out to about 5 tonnes @ @ @ @ @ @ @ more if it ’ s burned , less if it ’ s landfilled ) .
That ’ s roughly twice the CO2 produced by a tonne of oil .
If plastic demand were to grow as projected , annual emissions associated with plastic would double by mid-century , to around 3.5 gigatons .
And if it did that , SYSTEMIQ ( a company that researches and pushes for changes in materials use , which provided input to the report ) calculates that it would use 19 percent of the entire remaining global carbon @ @ @ @ @ @ @ planning on doubling its carbon footprint while the rest of the world plans to phase out emissions , ” says the report , “ clearly makes no sense.
” Policymakers aren ’ t going to let it happen .
2 .
Plastic produces external costs that are almost equal to its total market value The plastics industry imposes all kinds of costs on society that it doesn ’ t have to pay ( “ externalities ” ) : It emits carbon dioxide , it generates air pollution , it must be collected and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ it ends up in the ocean .
Adding up all those costs , drawing on the latest research , the report comes up with with a total externalities cost of between $ 800 and $ 1,400 per tonne , with “ at least $ 1,000 ” used as a reasonable rule of thumb .
And this doesn ’ t include some of the costs the report couldn ’ t quantify , including microplastics ( in seas , waters , and food ) and “ terrestrial leakage , ” or plastic that ends up @ @ @ @ @ @ @ costs in mind , the report looks at the subsidies and taxes facing the industry , to find out if any of these costs are incorporated .
Long story short : they are not .
The industry receives roughly $ 33 per tonne in subsidies ( $ 12 billion cumulatively ) , which isn ’ t that much in the grand scheme of things , but it turns out to be more than the industry pays in taxes ( $ 2 billion cumulatively , with optimistic assumptions ) .
All told , then @ @ @ @ @ @ @ $ 1,000 in unpaid external costs , which is about $ 1 per kilogram , or $ 350 billion a year .
“ The average cost of a tonne of plastic is $ 1,000 - $ 1,500 , ” the report says , “ so the subsidy from the rest of society to the plastics industry is only a little less than the total sales value of the industry.
” Those “ unpaid ” external costs are being paid today , of course — they don ’ t vanish .
It ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ by poor people and people living in poor countries , the ones living next to toxic incinerators , gathering plastic waste , and living with the most concentrated air and water pollution .
Imposing costs on poor people so that wealthy plastics companies can profit is a human rights abuse .
The report summarizes four aspects of the industry ’ s wasteful ways .
First , the best research indicates that about 36 percent of all plastic produced is for single-use applications .
Second , 40 percent of plastic waste is mismanaged — @ @ @ @ @ @ @ leakage , 22 % in open burning , and 14 % in terrestrial leakage , ” the report says .
Third , recycling rates in the industry are abysmally low ; 20 percent of plastics are sent for recycling , but only about 5 percent actually end up substituting for virgin plastic .
( Compare that to 60-80 percent recycling rates in steel , aluminum , and paper . )
And fourth , there have been virtually no guidelines or regulations on the design of plastic products , so just about anything goes @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of disposable , nonrecyclable plastic junk .
The industry has mostly responded to these kinds of criticisms with misdirection and propaganda rather than improving its products ( which , to be fair , has traditionally worked pretty well for it ) .
“ This is not an industry which has focused at all on efficiency or maximising utility , ” the report says .
“ It is a bloated behemoth , ripe for disruption.
” And the public is ready to disrupt it .
4 .
The public is waking up to the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the public and lawmakers are becoming more concerned and active on climate change , and “ it is simply delusional for investors in the plastics sector to believe that the sector will be immune from attempts to resolve this issue , ” the report says .
The public is also upset about plastic waste , especially in oceans .
An IPSOS polls in 2019 found that between 70 and 80 percent of the public wants to reduce plastics and force industry to go along , including a ban on single-use plastics .
This @ @ @ @ @ @ @ crack down , as in the EU , which introduced a €800/ton tax on unrecycled plastic waste as part of its green stimulus package .
Evidence shows that demand for plastic is largely saturated in OECD countries , which means the bulk of the alleged demand growth is supposed to come from China and other emerging markets , but there , too , steps are being taken to curtail plastic use and disposal .
China recently banned a range of single-use plastic items ; many other countries are expected to follow suit .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ on plastic bags on October 19 , a policy that took effect on March 1 .
“ You see plastic bags hanging in trees , blowing down the streets , in landfills and in our waterways , and there is no doubt they are doing tremendous damage , ” Gov .
Andrew Cuomo said when he signed the legislation .
“ Twelve million barrels of oil are used to make the plastic bags we use every year and by 2050 there will be more plastic by weight in the oceans than fish.
” @ @ @ @ @ @ @ bloated and wasteful , it imposes enormous social and ecological costs , and people are sick of it .
That is not a recipe for robust growth .
There are solutions at hand for reducing growth in plastic As policymakers get serious about plastics , there are a number of existing solutions ready to go , which are cheaper than the status quo .
Those solutions were itemized and costed out by SYSTEMIQ in a report called “ Breaking the Plastic Wave , ” released earlier this year .
Overall , bending the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the three most scalable and cost-effective solutions — reducing demand through design , reuse , and new delivery models ; substituting other products like compostables or paper ; and better recycling — together constitutes what SYSTEMIQ calls the System Change Scenario ( SCS ) .
Under SCS , total global plastic demand plateaus in 2020 and peaks in 2030 .
Notably , SCS is also cheaper for industry than business as usual .
Investment in new technologies goes up , but investment in virgin production and conversion are sharply reduced .
SCS would @ @ @ @ @ @ @ spend on plastics ( mainly on waste ) and create more jobs than business as usual .
If you are interested in the details — how to better design plastic products , make them last longer , make then more recyclable , and ensure they are properly disposed of — the SYSTEMIQ report goes deep in the weeds .
Suffice it to say , solutions to the profusion of cheap plastic and plastic waste are available .
They would save money relative to the status quo .
They would reduce pollution and create @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ensure that global demand for plastics peaks and begins declining within a decade , which would in turn ensure that global demand for oil does the same .
Policymakers just have to step up .
The politics of plastics are not favorable for Big Oil Pouring money into plastics is a desperate gamble for Big Oil .
Social pressure , technological innovations , and economic trends are all closing in on its main product , so it ’ s trying to make a lateral move into another bloated , polluting industry .
The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , even as it pours billions into capacity expansions .
If the anticipated 4 percent growth does not miraculously manifest out of the coronavirus-hobbled global economy in the next few years — and there are many reasons to believe it won ’ t — the cumulative overcapacity will be crippling , enough to suppress prices and investment returns for years .
By the time the industry crawls out of the hole , it will find a different world , with electric vehicles and heat pumps eating away at its core market .
“ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ will lose the cyclicality of oil , ” says Bond , “ I ’ m sure we ’ ll have higher prices again at some stage in the future .
But it is cyclicality around a falling mean.
” Plastics are probably not going to save the oil and gas industry .
It is more likely that the peak point in humanity ’ s centuries-long , planet-shaping fossil fuel binge is already in the rearview mirror , and that “ cyclicality around a falling mean ” will be the core truth of fossil @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Help keep Vox free for all Millions turn to Vox each month to understand what ’ s happening in the news , from the coronavirus crisis to a racial reckoning to what is , quite possibly , the most consequential presidential election of our lifetimes .
Our mission has never been more vital than it is in this moment : to empower you through understanding .
But our distinctive brand of explanatory journalism takes resources — particularly during a pandemic and an economic downturn .
Even when the economy and the news @ @ @ @ @ @ @ be a critical part of sustaining our resource-intensive work , and helping everyone make sense of an increasingly chaotic world .
Contribute today from as little as $ 3 .

The fossil fuel industry has not been doing well lately. Even before the Covid-19 pandemic hit, growth in global demand had slowed to 1 percent annually. Now, lockdowns and distancing to stop the spread of the coronavirus have decimated the industry. The International Energy Agency (IEA) recently released projections of rapid short-term decline in global demand, to the tune of 9 percent for oil, 8 percent for coal, and 5 percent for gas.
Depending on how long and severe the economic crisis proves to be, it will take years for demand to recover. Indeed, with electric vehicles cutting into oil demand by the end of the decade, it may never fully recover. Industry analysts like Carbon Tracker’s Kingsmill Bond are speculating that 2019 may turn out to be the peak of fossil fuel demand, and historically, in other industries, a peak in demand “tends to mark the beginning of a period of low prices and poor returns,” says Bond.
But the industry has a response to this dire forecast, and it can be summarized in one word: plastics.
Overall, plastics represent a fairly small sliver of oil demand. Annually, the world consumes around 4,500 million tonnes (mt) of oil but only around 1,000mt of petrochemicals (oil and natural gas used to make chemical products), and of that 1,000mt, only about 350mt are plastics. (A tonne is a metric ton, about 1.1 US tons.)
Nonetheless, plastics are commonly projected to be the biggest source of new demand for oil over coming decades — in some projections, the only real source. It is these projections that the industry is using to justify billions in new projects, as oil companies across the world shift investment toward petrochemicals.
And Big Oil is working its hardest to make the projections come true: The New York Times recently ran an investigative piece revealing the industry’s plans to push more plastic, and plastic waste, into Kenya. Plastics are the thin reed upon which the industry is placing all its hopes.
But a new report released in September by Carbon Tracker throws a big bucket of cold water on these hopes. It argues that, far from a reliable source of growth, plastics are uniquely vulnerable to disruption. They are coming under increasing scrutiny and regulation across the world. Huge consumer product companies like Unilever are phasing them out. And the public is turning against them.
If existing solutions are fully implemented, growth in plastics could fall to zero. And if that happens, then there is no remaining source of net oil demand growth and 2019 will almost certainly prove to be the year of peak fossil fuels.
Let’s look at a few highlights from the report.
Plastics are supposed to drive most oil demand growth
The report breaks down the projections of two widely respected sources of energy data and analysis, BP and the IEA.
From 2020 to 2040, BP expects plastics to represent 95 percent of the net growth in demand for oil.
In the IEA projections, plastics are the biggest single source of demand growth, representing 45 percent of the total. Both BP and IEA have the plastics industry growing at about 2 percent annually in the coming year.
Oil majors are more bullish. They claim the plastics industry will maintain the rate of growth it has shown since 2010, i.e., 4 percent. (For instance, Exxon touted 4 percent at its May 2020 investor day.) That kind of growth would mean a doubling of demand in 18 to 24 years, “and this appears to be what the industry is tooling up for,” says the report. “The petrochemical industry already faces huge overcapacity, but is planning to spend a further $400 billion on 80mt of new capacity.”
Global and national oil companies are shifting investment into petrochemicals, from Saudi Arabia to China. But the industry’s rosy growth projections may not come to pass.
“In order to reach global demand growth of 4 percent, you’ve got to have 2 percent growth across the OECD, 4 percent growth in China, and 6 percent growth in the rest of the world,” says Bond, a lead author of the report. “I would suggest that all three of those are a bit of a stretch.”
Four reasons plastics may not grow as forecasted
Industry projections of growth in plastics take place in a bit of a dreamworld, ignoring several recent trends and changes. The report identifies four.
1. Rising carbon emissions are not cool in the age of the Paris agreement
Calculating the carbon footprint of plastics is a complicated business — it produces CO2 at every stage of its lifecycle, including disposal — but the best research suggests that it averages out to about 5 tonnes of CO2 per tonne of plastic (more if it’s burned, less if it’s landfilled). That’s roughly twice the CO2 produced by a tonne of oil.
If plastic demand were to grow as projected, annual emissions associated with plastic would double by mid-century, to around 3.5 gigatons. And if it did that, SYSTEMIQ (a company that researches and pushes for changes in materials use, which provided input to the report) calculates that it would use 19 percent of the entire remaining global carbon budget.
“To have one sector planning on doubling its carbon footprint while the rest of the world plans to phase out emissions,” says the report, “clearly makes no sense.” Policymakers aren’t going to let it happen.
2. Plastic produces external costs that are almost equal to its total market value
The plastics industry imposes all kinds of costs on society that it doesn’t have to pay (“externalities”): It emits carbon dioxide, it generates air pollution, it must be collected and sorted, and a great deal of it ends up in the ocean.
Adding up all those costs, drawing on the latest research, the report comes up with with a total externalities cost of between $800 and $1,400 per tonne, with “at least $1,000” used as a reasonable rule of thumb.
And this doesn’t include some of the costs the report couldn’t quantify, including microplastics (in seas, waters, and food) and “terrestrial leakage,” or plastic that ends up as rubbish on land.
With these costs in mind, the report looks at the subsidies and taxes facing the industry, to find out if any of these costs are incorporated. Long story short: they are not. The industry receives roughly $33 per tonne in subsidies ($12 billion cumulatively), which isn’t that much in the grand scheme of things, but it turns out to be more than the industry pays in taxes ($2 billion cumulatively, with optimistic assumptions).
All told, then, a tonne of plastic imposes about $1,000 in unpaid external costs, which is about $1 per kilogram, or $350 billion a year. “The average cost of a tonne of plastic is $1,000 - $1,500,” the report says, “so the subsidy from the rest of society to the plastics industry is only a little less than the total sales value of the industry.”
Those “unpaid” external costs are being paid today, of course — they don’t vanish. It’s just that they are overwhelmingly being paid by poor people and people living in poor countries, the ones living next to toxic incinerators, gathering plastic waste, and living with the most concentrated air and water pollution.
Imposing costs on poor people so that wealthy plastics companies can profit is a human rights abuse.
3. The plastics industry is extraordinarily wasteful
The report summarizes four aspects of the industry’s wasteful ways.
First, the best research indicates that about 36 percent of all plastic produced is for single-use applications. Second, 40 percent of plastic waste is mismanaged — “5% ends up in ocean leakage, 22% in open burning, and 14% in terrestrial leakage,” the report says. Third, recycling rates in the industry are abysmally low; 20 percent of plastics are sent for recycling, but only about 5 percent actually end up substituting for virgin plastic. (Compare that to 60-80 percent recycling rates in steel, aluminum, and paper.)
Related The race to save the planet from plastic
And fourth, there have been virtually no guidelines or regulations on the design of plastic products, so just about anything goes. The result has been a tide of disposable, nonrecyclable plastic junk.
The industry has mostly responded to these kinds of criticisms with misdirection and propaganda rather than improving its products (which, to be fair, has traditionally worked pretty well for it).
“This is not an industry which has focused at all on efficiency or maximising utility,” the report says. “It is a bloated behemoth, ripe for disruption.”
And the public is ready to disrupt it.
4. The public is waking up to the enormous costs of plastic
Broadly speaking, the public and lawmakers are becoming more concerned and active on climate change, and “it is simply delusional for investors in the plastics sector to believe that the sector will be immune from attempts to resolve this issue,” the report says.
The public is also upset about plastic waste, especially in oceans. An IPSOS polls in 2019 found that between 70 and 80 percent of the public wants to reduce plastics and force industry to go along, including a ban on single-use plastics.
This kind of sentiment is driving regulators to crack down, as in the EU, which introduced a €800/ton tax on unrecycled plastic waste as part of its green stimulus package.
Evidence shows that demand for plastic is largely saturated in OECD countries, which means the bulk of the alleged demand growth is supposed to come from China and other emerging markets, but there, too, steps are being taken to curtail plastic use and disposal. China recently banned a range of single-use plastic items; many other countries are expected to follow suit.
New York state began enforcing its ban on plastic bags on October 19, a policy that took effect on March 1.
“You see plastic bags hanging in trees, blowing down the streets, in landfills and in our waterways, and there is no doubt they are doing tremendous damage,” Gov. Andrew Cuomo said when he signed the legislation. “Twelve million barrels of oil are used to make the plastic bags we use every year and by 2050 there will be more plastic by weight in the oceans than fish.”
In summary, the plastics industry is bloated and wasteful, it imposes enormous social and ecological costs, and people are sick of it. That is not a recipe for robust growth.
There are solutions at hand for reducing growth in plastic
As policymakers get serious about plastics, there are a number of existing solutions ready to go, which are cheaper than the status quo. Those solutions were itemized and costed out by SYSTEMIQ in a report called “Breaking the Plastic Wave,” released earlier this year.
Overall, bending the plastics curve looks like this:
Maximizing the three most scalable and cost-effective solutions — reducing demand through design, reuse, and new delivery models; substituting other products like compostables or paper; and better recycling — together constitutes what SYSTEMIQ calls the System Change Scenario (SCS).
Under SCS, total global plastic demand plateaus in 2020 and peaks in 2030.
(These projections were done before Covid-19, so as in many other areas, it’s possible that the peak has been pulled forward. Wood Mackenzie projects a 4 percent drop in plastics demand in 2020, though it also says the virus “has paused the shift away from single-use plastics.”)
Notably, SCS is also cheaper for industry than business as usual. Investment in new technologies goes up, but investment in virgin production and conversion are sharply reduced.
SCS would also reduce the amount of money governments spend on plastics (mainly on waste) and create more jobs than business as usual.
If you are interested in the details — how to better design plastic products, make them last longer, make then more recyclable, and ensure they are properly disposed of — the SYSTEMIQ report goes deep in the weeds. Suffice it to say, solutions to the profusion of cheap plastic and plastic waste are available. They would save money relative to the status quo. They would reduce pollution and create jobs.
And together, they would ensure that global demand for plastics peaks and begins declining within a decade, which would in turn ensure that global demand for oil does the same.
Policymakers just have to step up.
The politics of plastics are not favorable for Big Oil
Pouring money into plastics is a desperate gamble for Big Oil. Social pressure, technological innovations, and economic trends are all closing in on its main product, so it’s trying to make a lateral move into another bloated, polluting industry.
The petrochemicals industry is already burdened with overcapacity, even as it pours billions into capacity expansions. If the anticipated 4 percent growth does not miraculously manifest out of the coronavirus-hobbled global economy in the next few years — and there are many reasons to believe it won’t — the cumulative overcapacity will be crippling, enough to suppress prices and investment returns for years.
By the time the industry crawls out of the hole, it will find a different world, with electric vehicles and heat pumps eating away at its core market.
“I’m not suggesting that we will lose the cyclicality of oil,” says Bond, “I’m sure we’ll have higher prices again at some stage in the future. But it is cyclicality around a falling mean.”
Plastics are probably not going to save the oil and gas industry. It is more likely that the peak point in humanity’s centuries-long, planet-shaping fossil fuel binge is already in the rearview mirror, and that “cyclicality around a falling mean” will be the core truth of fossil fuels for the remainder of the century.


vox--2020-10-28--Daylight saving time ends Sunday: 8 things to know about “falling back”

On Sunday , November 1 , at 2 am , daylight saving time ends .
We ’ ll set our clocks back one hour , heralding the end of daylight saving time for much of the country .
The biggest consequence : The change shifts daylight back into the morning hours .
That means sunrise will happen one hour earlier on November 1 ( sadly , it means sunset will occur one hour earlier as well . )
For weekend workers , at least , it means an additional glorious hour of sleep on Sunday .
Hurrah !
Yet as @ @ @ @ @ @ @ still a lot of confusion about daylight saving time .
The first thing to know : Yes , it ends in the fall , just as the decrease in daylight hours is becoming noticeable .
Let ’ s sort it all out .
1 ) Why do we need to “ save ” daylight hours in the summer ?
Daylight saving time in the US started as an energy conservation trick during World War I and became a national standard in the 1960s .
The idea is that in the summer months , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ we get into the evening .
So if the sun sets at 8 pm instead of 7 , we ’ d presumably spend less time with the lights on in our homes at night , saving electricity .
It also means that you ’ re less likely to sleep through daylight hours in the morning ( since those are shifted an hour later too ) .
Hence “ saving ” daylight hours for the most productive time of the day .
Overall : We agree , the name is kind of confusing .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ daylight saving time.
” Not plural .
Be sure to point out this common mistake to friends and acquaintances .
You ’ ll be really popular .
3 ) Does it actually lead to energy savings ?
As Joseph Stromberg outlined in an excellent 2015 Vox article , the actual electricity conservation from the time change is unclear or nonexistent : 4 ) Why doesn ’ t Arizona or Hawaii change its clocks ?
Arizona has a simple way to deal with daylight saving time : Most of the state ignores it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ legislature opted to keep the clocks in most of the state in standard time all year .
One reason : Arizona summers are very hot , and an earlier sunset gives residents more time to enjoy tolerable temperatures before bed , as AZcentral explains .
Confusing matters : The Navajo Nation within Arizona does use DST .
Hawaii also doesn ’ t observe DST .
The island state is the farthest south of all states and rejected it because it doesn ’ t see a hugely noticeable daylight hour difference between winter and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ t a bunch of states pass laws making daylight saving time permanent ?
What happened with those ?
If you ’ re a bit confused about which states follow daylight saving time and which do not , I don ’ t blame you .
That ’ s because lately , a few states have looked into joining Arizona and Hawaii , but with a twist : They want daylight saving time to be in place all year long .
In the November 2018 election , Californians voted in favor of a ballot measure @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The measure , which passed with 60 percent of the vote , simply grants the California Legislature the power to vote to change the clocks permanently .
Any changes would need to start with a two-thirds majority vote in the state legislature — which hasn ’ t happened yet .
And even then , the time change wouldn ’ t be a given .
The federal government would have to approve it ; that has uncertain prospects too .
In 2018 , the Florida government approved the delightfully named Sunshine Protection Act , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ daylight saving time .
( Essentially , it would mean that Florida will be one hour ahead of the rest of the East Coast during the winter months . )
Massachusetts has looked into a similar measure , too .
The bill is still waiting on approval from Congress before it can go into effect .
Florida Sen. Marco Rubio has put forth a few bills to push forward the approval , but they haven ’ t moved at all .
Arkansas , too , passed a bill to make daylight saving time @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that the changes wouldn ’ t go into effect until its bordering states changed their clocks permanently too .
Other states that have approved legislation to enact year-long daylight saving time include Washington , Tennessee , Oregon , Nevada , and Alabama .
Some Maryland legislators are interested , too .
But none of the changes can go into effect without approval from the federal government .
So for now , all these states will be changing their clocks on Sunday along with the rest of us .
Sorry !
6 ) What @ @ @ @ @ @ @ abolished ?
Or if it were extended forever ?
It ’ s worth thinking about what would happen if Congress abolished daylight saving time ( or kept it going all year long ) .
How might our patterns change ?
Blogger and cartographer Andy Woodruff decided to visualize this with a great series of maps .
The goal of these maps is to show how abolishing daylight saving time , extending it all year , or going with the status quo changes the number of days we have “ reasonable ” sunrise and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ by Woodruff , is the sun rising at 7 am or earlier or setting after 5 pm ( so one could , conceivably , spend some time in the sun before or after work ) .
This is what the map looks like under the status quo of twice-yearly clock shifts .
A lot of people have unreasonable sunrise times ( the dark spots ) for much of the year : Here ’ s how things would change if daylight saving were abolished ( that is , if we just stuck to the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ) .
It ’ s better , particularly on the sunrise end : And here ’ s what would happen if daylight saving were always in effect .
The sunrise situation would actually be worse for most people .
But many more people would enjoy after-work light — and there ’ s a strong argument to make that this after-work light is actually worth more .
( More on that below . )
In 2015 , Stromberg made the compelling case that the daylight saving time shift into the evening should be extended @ @ @ @ @ @ @ benefit us in a surprising number of ways : • People engage in more leisure activities after work than beforehand , so we ’ d likely do more physical activity over sedentary leisure activities .
Relatedly , studies show that kids get more exercise when the sun is out later in the evening .
• Stromberg also cites some evidence that robberies decrease when there ’ s more sun in the evening hours .
• There could be economic gains , since people “ take short trips , and buy things after work @ @ @ @ @ @ @ longer DST slightly increases sales , ” he writes .
A bit .
When we shift clocks forward one hour in the spring , many of us will lose that hour of sleep .
In the days after daylight saving time starts , our biological clocks are a little bit off .
It ’ s like the whole country has been given one hour of jet lag .
In September , the American Academy of Sleep medicine called for the end of daylight saving time clock changes .
“ An abundance of accumulated @ @ @ @ @ @ @ standard time to daylight saving time incurs significant public health and safety risks , including increased risk of adverse cardiovascular events , mood disorders , and motor vehicle crashes , ” the academy wrote in a statement .
One hour of lost sleep sounds like a small change , but we humans are fragile , sensitive animals .
Small disruptions in our sleep have been shown to alter basic indicators of our health and dull our mental edge .
And when our biological clocks are off , everything about us is out of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ schedule to try to keep up with our actions .
Since we usually eat a meal after waking up , we produce the most insulin in the morning .
We ’ re primed to metabolize breakfast before even taking a bite .
It ’ s more efficient that way .
Being an hour off schedule means our bodies are not prepared for our actions at any time of the day .
In 1999 , researchers at Johns Hopkins and Stanford universities wanted to find out what happens on the road when millions of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 21 years of fatal car crash data from the US National Highway Transportation Safety Administration , they found a very small , but significant , increase in road deaths on the Monday after the clock shift in the spring : The number of deadly accidents jumped to an average of 83.5 on the “ spring forward ” Monday compared with an average of 78.2 on a typical Monday .
And it seems it ’ s not just car accidents .
Evidence has also mounted of an increase in incidences of workplace injuries and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ spring forward .
8 ) How can we abolish daylight saving time , or extend it year-round ?
That ’ s easy !
Well , not really : All it would take is an act of Congress .
But I wouldn ’ t count on this happening anytime soon .
Help keep Vox free for all Millions turn to Vox each month to understand what ’ s happening in the news , from the coronavirus crisis to a racial reckoning to what is , quite possibly , the most consequential presidential election of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ been more vital than it is in this moment : to empower you through understanding .
But our distinctive brand of explanatory journalism takes resources .
Even when the economy and the news advertising market recovers , your support will be a critical part of sustaining our resource-intensive work .
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On Sunday, November 1, at 2 am, daylight saving time ended. We set our clocks back one hour, heralding the end of daylight saving time for much of the country.
The biggest consequence: The change shifts daylight back into the morning hours. That means sunrise happened one hour earlier on November 1 (sadly, it means sunset will occur one hour earlier as well.) For weekend workers, at least, it means an additional glorious hour of sleep on Sunday. Hurrah!
Yet as simple as it seems, there is still a lot of confusion about daylight saving time. The first thing to know: Yes, it ends in the fall, just as the decrease in daylight hours is becoming noticeable.
Let’s sort it all out.
1) Why do we need to “save” daylight hours in the summer?
Daylight saving time in the US started as an energy conservation trick during World War I and became a national standard in the 1960s.
The idea is that in the summer months, we shift the number of daylight hours we get into the evening. So if the sun sets at 8 pm instead of 7, we’d presumably spend less time with the lights on in our homes at night, saving electricity.
It also means that you’re less likely to sleep through daylight hours in the morning (since those are shifted an hour later too). Hence “saving” daylight hours for the most productive time of the day.
Overall: We agree, the name is kind of confusing.
2) Isn’t it “daylight savings time” not “daylight saving time”?
No, it’s definitely called “daylight saving time.” Not plural. Be sure to point out this common mistake to friends and acquaintances. You’ll be really popular.
3) Does it actually lead to energy savings?
As Joseph Stromberg outlined in an excellent 2015 Vox article, the actual electricity conservation from the time change is unclear or nonexistent:
Despite the fact that daylight saving time was introduced to save fuel, there isn’t strong evidence that the current system actually reduces energy use — or that making it year-round would do so, either. Studies that evaluate the energy impact of DST are mixed. It seems to reduce lighting use (and thus electricity consumption) slightly but may increase heating and AC use, as well as gas consumption. It’s probably fair to say that energy-wise, it’s a wash.
4) Why doesn’t Arizona or Hawaii change its clocks?
Arizona has a simple way to deal with daylight saving time: Most of the state ignores it.
Fifty years ago, the state legislature opted to keep the clocks in most of the state in standard time all year. One reason: Arizona summers are very hot, and an earlier sunset gives residents more time to enjoy tolerable temperatures before bed, as AZcentral explains. Confusing matters: The Navajo Nation within Arizona does use DST.
Hawaii also doesn’t observe DST. The island state is the farthest south of all states and rejected it because it doesn’t see a hugely noticeable daylight hour difference between winter and summer months.
5) Didn’t a bunch of states pass laws making daylight saving time permanent? What happened with those?
If you’re a bit confused about which states follow daylight saving time and which do not, I don’t blame you. That’s because lately, a few states have looked into joining Arizona and Hawaii, but with a twist: They want daylight saving time to be in place all year long.
In the November 2018 election, Californians voted in favor of a ballot measure that paves the way for this. The measure, which passed with 60 percent of the vote, simply grants the California Legislature the power to vote to change the clocks permanently. Any changes would need to start with a two-thirds majority vote in the state legislature — which hasn’t happened yet.
And even then, the time change wouldn’t be a given. The federal government would have to approve it; that has uncertain prospects too.
In 2018, the Florida government approved the delightfully named Sunshine Protection Act, which seeks to permanently leave Florida in daylight saving time. (Essentially, it would mean that Florida will be one hour ahead of the rest of the East Coast during the winter months.) Massachusetts has looked into a similar measure, too.
The bill is still waiting on approval from Congress before it can go into effect. Florida Sen. Marco Rubio has put forth a few bills to push forward the approval, but they haven’t moved at all. Arkansas, too, passed a bill to make daylight saving time permanent, but it included the condition that the changes wouldn’t go into effect until its bordering states changed their clocks permanently too. Other states that have approved legislation to enact year-long daylight saving time include Washington, Tennessee, Oregon, Nevada, and Alabama. Some Maryland legislators are interested, too. But none of the changes can go into effect without approval from the federal government.
So for now, all these states will be changing their clocks on Sunday along with the rest of us. Sorry!
(It appears other countries are also interested in getting rid of DST, or keeping it in place forever: Some members of the European Parliament, the governing body of the European Union, want to abolish clock changes there too.)
6) What would happen if daylight saving time were abolished? Or if it were extended forever?
It’s worth thinking about what would happen if Congress abolished daylight saving time (or kept it going all year long).
How might our patterns change? Blogger and cartographer Andy Woodruff decided to visualize this with a great series of maps.
The goal of these maps is to show how abolishing daylight saving time, extending it all year, or going with the status quo changes the number of days we have “reasonable” sunrise and sunset times.
Reasonable, as defined by Woodruff, is the sun rising at 7 am or earlier or setting after 5 pm (so one could, conceivably, spend some time in the sun before or after work).
This is what the map looks like under the status quo of twice-yearly clock shifts. A lot of people have unreasonable sunrise times (the dark spots) for much of the year:
Here’s how things would change if daylight saving were abolished (that is, if we just stuck to the time set in the winter all year). It’s better, particularly on the sunrise end:
And here’s what would happen if daylight saving were always in effect. The sunrise situation would actually be worse for most people. But many more people would enjoy after-work light — and there’s a strong argument to make that this after-work light is actually worth more. (More on that below.)
(Note: The length of light we experience each day wouldn’t actually change; that’s determined by the tilt of Earth’s axis. But we would experience it in times more accommodating for our modern world. Be sure to check out the interactive version of these maps on Woodruff’s website.)
In 2015, Stromberg made the compelling case that the daylight saving time shift into the evening should be extended year-round. Having more light later could benefit us in a surprising number of ways:
People engage in more leisure activities after work than beforehand, so we’d likely do more physical activity over sedentary leisure activities. Relatedly, studies show that kids get more exercise when the sun is out later in the evening.
Stromberg also cites some evidence that robberies decrease when there’s more sun in the evening hours.
There could be economic gains, since people “take short trips, and buy things after work — but not before — so a longer DST slightly increases sales,” he writes.
7) Is daylight saving time dangerous?
A bit. When we shift clocks forward one hour in the spring, many of us will lose that hour of sleep. In the days after daylight saving time starts, our biological clocks are a little bit off. It’s like the whole country has been given one hour of jet lag.
In September, the American Academy of Sleep medicine called for the end of daylight saving time clock changes.
“An abundance of accumulated evidence indicates that the acute transition from standard time to daylight saving time incurs significant public health and safety risks, including increased risk of adverse cardiovascular events, mood disorders, and motor vehicle crashes,” the academy wrote in a statement.
One hour of lost sleep sounds like a small change, but we humans are fragile, sensitive animals. Small disruptions in our sleep have been shown to alter basic indicators of our health and dull our mental edge.
And when our biological clocks are off, everything about us is out of sync. Our bodies run this tight schedule to try to keep up with our actions. Since we usually eat a meal after waking up, we produce the most insulin in the morning. We’re primed to metabolize breakfast before even taking a bite. It’s more efficient that way.
(There’s some good research that finds taking over-the-counter melatonin can help reset our body clocks to a new time. Read more about that here.)
Being an hour off schedule means our bodies are not prepared for our actions at any time of the day.
One example: driving.
In 1999, researchers at Johns Hopkins and Stanford universities wanted to find out what happens on the road when millions of drivers have their sleep disrupted.
Analyzing 21 years of fatal car crash data from the US National Highway Transportation Safety Administration, they found a very small, but significant, increase in road deaths on the Monday after the clock shift in the spring: The number of deadly accidents jumped to an average of 83.5 on the “spring forward” Monday compared with an average of 78.2 on a typical Monday.
And it seems it’s not just car accidents. Evidence has also mounted of an increase in incidences of workplace injuries and heart attacks in the days after we spring forward.
8) How can we abolish daylight saving time, or extend it year-round?
That’s easy! Well, not really: All it would take is an act of Congress. But I wouldn’t count on this happening anytime soon.


vox--2020-10-28--This entrepreneur is competing with DoorDash — by delivering only from Black-owned restaurants

David Cabello ’ s business was barely a year old when the pandemic struck .
He ’ s the founder of Black and Mobile , the self-proclaimed first Black-owned food delivery service in the country to exclusively deliver for Black-owned restaurants .
At times , he says , the pandemic and the protests have made him feel like a character in A Tale of Two Cities .
His business has quite literally experienced , as Dickens put it , the best of times and the worst of times .
On one hand , the pandemic brought a level of disruption @ @ @ @ @ @ @ business to survive , let alone expand , as Cabello was in the process of doing when Covid-19 brought many industries to a halt .
And the pandemic hit Black and Mobile hard .
In early March , the company had expanded its delivery services to include more than 25 restaurants in a new city , Detroit .
Two weeks later , stay-at-home orders led all but six of them to close .
The 25-year-old self-taught entrepreneur made the difficult decision to temporarily suspend his company ’ s services there just weeks after @ @ @ @ @ @ @ difficult times have also brought Black and Mobile its share of good fortune , though Cabello struggles with how it was gained .
In late May , when news of the police killing of George Floyd led to nationwide protests , Cabello ’ s business saw an unexpected shift .
Alongside widespread calls for criminal justice reform , people began encouraging others to support Black-owned businesses to help Black communities achieve economic justice .
Even amid competition from much larger delivery services like DoorDash and Uber Eats , Cabello ’ s business soared @ @ @ @ @ @ @ more than quadrupled its average weekly sales .
The company even caught the attention of Pharrell Williams and Jay-Z , landing Cabello and his brother and business partner , Aaron , a cameo in their music video for a song aptly titled “ Entrepreneur.
” Now Cabello is charting a path forward .
Despite economic instability in many regions , he ’ s continuing Black and Mobile ’ s expansion in Atlanta and Detroit .
And he remains hopeful that the generous support his business has received will continue in better times .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ and clarity .
You launched your business in February 2019 .
How difficult was it to manage such a major crisis in your first year of business ?
It was very hard because I didn ’ t have any other major Black-owned businesses like mine to turn to for advice .
I had to teach myself about a lot of things .
I couldn ’ t go to my competitors and ask , “ How did you get through this ?
” Why was it so important for you to work exclusively with @ @ @ @ @ @ @ important to me because I believe we need to circulate our dollar .
So many times in the Black community , we get money and then it goes outside of our community to other businesses , restaurants , and stores .
Money doesn ’ t circulate long enough in our community .
But also , everyone needs to know where Black businesses are .
A lot of people didn ’ t know about the Black-owned businesses that we post up and promote .
That ’ s an issue .
And that ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for people to find them and then be able to support them right away .
What challenges did your business face due to the pandemic , and how did you overcome them ?
Ultimately , we had to pull out of Detroit because of Covid , because a lot of restaurants just weren ’ t open .
And then when we were trying to expand into Atlanta , we experienced some technical issues with our app that delayed that process and made us lose some money .
But we also had a lot @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 12,500 [ pandemic-related ] grant from the Small Business Administration ( SBA ) .
And just recently , I won $ 25,000 from the NAACP and Daymond John at Black Entrepreneurs Day .
So I ’ ve been able to pull in a little bit of money from different resources to help us stay afloat .
How did it feel to get so much attention amid the protests after the death of George Floyd ?
When I saw the amount of orders we were getting , just from Covid happening , I was @ @ @ @ @ @ @ murdered , unfortunately there were a lot of people that supported us in that moment for the first time .
It was a good thing to see the potential of the business , but it was also overwhelming , emotionally .
I didn ’ t like how , once he was murdered , other companies and people wanted to support Black businesses and Black people like things like this weren ’ t happening to us long before George Floyd .
So it was bittersweet .
I definitely didn ’ t like the way @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that ’ s going to fade away , but it was a celebration in the sense that it made people wake up and unify and do better .
Your business is part of the gig economy , meaning that the people that work with you don ’ t receive the health benefits or financial security that typically comes with traditional jobs .
How do you work to ensure your drivers are compensated fairly and that they feel valued , despite their independent work status ?
We have about 120 employees in Philadelphia , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 60 in Detroit , and they ’ re all independent contractors .
We did a survey of all the drivers asking , “ Would you rather be an independent contractor or W-2 employee ?
” and a majority of them chose independent contract work because they liked the flexibility of working whenever they want .
I also try to help my drivers as much as I can .
We use group chats in all our cities so the drivers can communicate directly with me and my team .
If a driver has a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ or they need an advance on their pay , I try to help them as best as I can .
That ’ s what makes me different .
You couldn ’ t go to Uber and ask them to front you some gas money .
But it ’ s a fine line .
If you need a helping hand , I ’ m here to help you , but I also have a business to run .
I just try to keep an open line of communication to keep that personal relationship going @ @ @ @ @ @ @ faced throughout the pandemic and in your first year of business , what advice would you offer to other small business owners ?
Don ’ t take it too personal if you hear “ no.
” I heard no all the time .
People have said I couldn ’ t do this or that .
Just don ’ t take it personal , and don ’ t let that affect you .
And you have to be prepared to work hard .
If you ’ re not going to work hard every day @ @ @ @ @ @ @ unlimited hours , you ’ re not ready to be successful .
Help keep Vox free for all Millions turn to Vox each month to understand what ’ s happening in the news , from the coronavirus crisis to a racial reckoning to what is , quite possibly , the most consequential presidential election of our lifetimes .
Our mission has never been more vital than it is in this moment : to empower you through understanding .
But our distinctive brand of explanatory journalism takes resources .
Even when the economy and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ support will be a critical part of sustaining our resource-intensive work .
If you have already contributed , thank you .
If you haven ’ t , please consider helping everyone make sense of an increasingly chaotic world : Contribute today from as little as $ 3 .

David Cabello’s business was barely a year old when the pandemic struck. He’s the founder of Black and Mobile, the self-proclaimed first Black-owned food delivery service in the country to exclusively deliver for Black-owned restaurants. At times, he says, the pandemic and the protests have made him feel like a character in A Tale of Two Cities. His business has quite literally experienced, as Dickens put it, the best of times and the worst of times.
On one hand, the pandemic brought a level of disruption that made it difficult for any small business to survive, let alone expand, as Cabello was in the process of doing when Covid-19 brought many industries to a halt. And the pandemic hit Black and Mobile hard. In early March, the company had expanded its delivery services to include more than 25 restaurants in a new city, Detroit. Two weeks later, stay-at-home orders led all but six of them to close. The 25-year-old self-taught entrepreneur made the difficult decision to temporarily suspend his company’s services there just weeks after they’d started.
But these difficult times have also brought Black and Mobile its share of good fortune, though Cabello struggles with how it was gained. In late May, when news of the police killing of George Floyd led to nationwide protests, Cabello’s business saw an unexpected shift. Alongside widespread calls for criminal justice reform, people began encouraging others to support Black-owned businesses to help Black communities achieve economic justice. Even amid competition from much larger delivery services like DoorDash and Uber Eats, Cabello’s business soared. In June, Black and Mobile more than quadrupled its average weekly sales.
The company even caught the attention of Pharrell Williams and Jay-Z, landing Cabello and his brother and business partner, Aaron, a cameo in their music video for a song aptly titled “Entrepreneur.”
Now Cabello is charting a path forward. Despite economic instability in many regions, he’s continuing Black and Mobile’s expansion in Atlanta and Detroit. And he remains hopeful that the generous support his business has received will continue in better times.
This interview has been edited for length and clarity.
You launched your business in February 2019. How difficult was it to manage such a major crisis in your first year of business?
It was very hard because I didn’t have any other major Black-owned businesses like mine to turn to for advice. I had to teach myself about a lot of things. I couldn’t go to my competitors and ask, “How did you get through this?”
Why was it so important for you to work exclusively with other Black-owned businesses?
This was very important to me because I believe we need to circulate our dollar. So many times in the Black community, we get money and then it goes outside of our community to other businesses, restaurants, and stores. Money doesn’t circulate long enough in our community.
But also, everyone needs to know where Black businesses are. A lot of people didn’t know about the Black-owned businesses that we post up and promote. That’s an issue. And that’s why I wanted to create a way for people to find them and then be able to support them right away.
What challenges did your business face due to the pandemic, and how did you overcome them?
Ultimately, we had to pull out of Detroit because of Covid, because a lot of restaurants just weren’t open. And then when we were trying to expand into Atlanta, we experienced some technical issues with our app that delayed that process and made us lose some money.
But we also had a lot of blessings. I got a $12,500 [pandemic-related] grant from the Small Business Administration (SBA). And just recently, I won $25,000 from the NAACP and Daymond John at Black Entrepreneurs Day. So I’ve been able to pull in a little bit of money from different resources to help us stay afloat.
How did it feel to get so much attention amid the protests after the death of George Floyd?
When I saw the amount of orders we were getting, just from Covid happening, I was surprised. And then when George was murdered, unfortunately there were a lot of people that supported us in that moment for the first time. It was a good thing to see the potential of the business, but it was also overwhelming, emotionally. I didn’t like how, once he was murdered, other companies and people wanted to support Black businesses and Black people like things like this weren’t happening to us long before George Floyd. So it was bittersweet.
I definitely didn’t like the way we were being treated like a trend that’s going to fade away, but it was a celebration in the sense that it made people wake up and unify and do better.
Your business is part of the gig economy, meaning that the people that work with you don’t receive the health benefits or financial security that typically comes with traditional jobs. How do you work to ensure your drivers are compensated fairly and that they feel valued, despite their independent work status?
We have about 120 employees in Philadelphia, about 140 in Atlanta, and about 60 in Detroit, and they’re all independent contractors. We did a survey of all the drivers asking, “Would you rather be an independent contractor or W-2 employee?” and a majority of them chose independent contract work because they liked the flexibility of working whenever they want.
I also try to help my drivers as much as I can. We use group chats in all our cities so the drivers can communicate directly with me and my team. If a driver has a problem, like if their car dies or they need an advance on their pay, I try to help them as best as I can. That’s what makes me different. You couldn’t go to Uber and ask them to front you some gas money.
But it’s a fine line. If you need a helping hand, I’m here to help you, but I also have a business to run. I just try to keep an open line of communication to keep that personal relationship going.
Considering the challenges you’ve faced throughout the pandemic and in your first year of business, what advice would you offer to other small business owners?
Don’t take it too personal if you hear “no.” I heard no all the time. People have said I couldn’t do this or that. Just don’t take it personal, and don’t let that affect you.
And you have to be prepared to work hard. If you’re not going to work hard every day, seven days a week, for unlimited hours, you’re not ready to be successful.


vox--2020-10-28--3 charts showing the alarming decline of Arctic sea ice this year

For the past five months , Melinda Webster has lived on an icebreaker ship frozen in an ice floe near the North Pole .
For Webster , a sea ice geophysicist at the University of Alaska Fairbanks , it was an ideal observatory .
She and a team of 14 other scientists set out , as part of the largest polar expedition ever , to study rapidly disappearing sea ice , which is often shrouded from the view of satellites by thick fog .
Protected from polar bears by armed guards , the researchers spent their days measuring every aspect @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and ice thickness , the depth of melt ponds on the surface , and the ice ’ s reflectivity .
They wore red “ survival suits ” to insulate them during the occasional plunge through cracking ice into the Arctic Ocean .
“ People did fall in , myself included , ” Webster recounted with a laugh .
“ But that ’ s just part of it , you know.
” Braving the elements like this is part of essential research : Sea ice is a bellwether of the climate change in the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ gas emissions , the Arctic surface air temperatures have been warming rapidly — at twice the rate of the global average .
Historically , during the winter , sea ice has covered a vast swath of the Arctic Ocean , which fills much of the Arctic Circle .
But as temperatures rise , it has been shrinking 12 percent every decade since measurements began in 1979 .
Sea ice coverage fluctuates seasonally , hitting a low in September before forming again as temperatures drop in the fall — and expanding again by two @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the winter in March .
Webster and her team surveyed the summer conditions and the beginning of the “ re-freeze.
” But this year , that regrowth has been slower than ever .
As October comes to a close , sea ice is at its lowest level for the month in recorded history .
Aboard the German icebreaker ship Polarstern , the changing ice conditions were palpable .
Webster noticed in particular “ just how easy it was to go across the Arctic , across the North Pole , like the ice is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ It was easy to break through the ice pack , and the ship was only running on three engines rather than the full four.
” The shrinking and thinning out of Arctic sea ice is bad news for polar bears and indigenous people , who rely on the sea ice to hunt .
The disappearance of the sea ice also further accelerates warming .
When the white surface is replaced by a dark open ocean , more heat is absorbed and less light is reflected .
According to a new study in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ add 0.19 degrees Celsius to the global temperature by mid-century , nearly wiping out the temperature effect of China going carbon neutral .
To understand what ’ s driving the dramatic transformation underway in the Arctic Ocean , let ’ s look at three compelling charts created by Colorado State University atmospheric scientist Zachary Labe .
The overall drop in sea ice is starkly evident in the chart below .
It shows this year ’ s sea ice levels fall well below the median from 1981-2010 .
What this trend means is that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ northernmost latitudes is increasingly turning into dark blue open ocean .
2020 produced frightening signs of the precariousness of Arctic sea ice .
This month broke the record for the lowest sea ice extent in October , over 1.5 million square miles less than the 1980s average — an area larger than India , according to Labe .
This year ’ s sea ice minimum , which typically occurs in September after the summer melt , was also the second-lowest on record after 2012 .
The chart below shows how sea ice recovery @ @ @ @ @ @ @ pattern of previous decades .
What has caused large parts of the Arctic to remain ice-free well into the fall ?
As Andres Flij of Severe Weather Europe points out , the Eastern Arctic Ocean ( north of Siberia ) has been several degrees Celsius warmer than the 1981 to 2010 average .
These warm temperatures are making it difficult for ice to form .
The chart below shows that the Eastern Siberian , Laptev , and Kara seas ( all part of the Eastern Arctic Ocean ) have had particularly low sea @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
The consequences of an increasingly iceless Arctic Ocean This October ’ s low sea ice extent might hold the record for a period , but climate scientists expect it will be surpassed in the years to come .
“ We can expect to see substantial year-to-year variability , but overall the ice cover is becoming smaller and thinner during the fall months , ” Labe said .
“ While 2020 is currently a record low , it may resemble a typical October in the not too distant future.
” The Arctic Ocean @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the summer as soon as 2050 .
The decrease in ice has already affected indigenous people who use the sea ice to hunt for whales and seals .
This has contributed to increasing food insecurity — in 2014 , a Washington food bank supplied 10,000 pounds of halibut to indigenous communities in Alaska when the walrus hunt came up short , Ed Struzik reported for Yale Environment 360 .
It also spells peril for polar bears , which also use the ice to hunt for food .
A recent study in Nature Climate @ @ @ @ @ @ @ nearly extinct by the end of the century due to the loss of habitat .
Changes in the ice are part of a larger “ cascade effect , ” as Webster describes it , in which delayed winter ice growth leads to thinner ice , which melts more easily in the summer months compared to older , thicker sea ice .
This creates more open ocean .
This transformation contributes to both regional and global warming .
Where a white sea ice surface would have reflected sunlight , the dark water absorbs heat @ @ @ @ @ @ @ This change in albedo ( or reflectivity ) on sea and land in the Arctic is one of the main reasons the region is heating at twice the global average rate , according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration ’ s 2019 Arctic Report Card .
According to the recent Nature Communications study , it will also be a significant contributor to global warming .
Near Greenland — which holds a massive ice sheet — the warming loop set off by sea ice loss has a minor effect on its warming , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ice sheet itself , researchers found in a 2019 study in Geophysical Research Letters .
The sea ice shift could also impact seasonal weather , potentially intensifying extreme weather .
However , Labe says the issue requires further research .
“ Scientists are actively studying the connections between Arctic sea ice loss and wintertime weather patterns in North America , Europe , and Asia , ” he said .
“ However , these relationships remain highly uncertain in the scientific literature and for seasonal weather forecasts.
” For now , the plummeting sea @ @ @ @ @ @ @ just how rapidly the planet is changing , and how dire the consequences of delaying radical cuts in greenhouse gas emissions will be .
Help keep Vox free for all Millions turn to Vox each month to understand what ’ s happening in the news , from the coronavirus crisis to a racial reckoning to what is , quite possibly , the most consequential presidential election of our lifetimes .
Our mission has never been more vital than it is in this moment : to empower you through understanding .
But our distinctive @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Even when the economy and the news advertising market recovers , your support will be a critical part of sustaining our resource-intensive work .
If you have already contributed , thank you .
If you haven ’ t , please consider helping everyone make sense of an increasingly chaotic world : Contribute today from as little as $ 3 .

For the past five months, Melinda Webster has lived on an icebreaker ship frozen in an ice floe near the North Pole.
For Webster, a sea ice geophysicist at the University of Alaska Fairbanks, it was an ideal observatory. She and a team of 14 other scientists set out, as part of the largest polar expedition ever, to study rapidly disappearing sea ice, which is often shrouded from the view of satellites by thick fog.
Protected from polar bears by armed guards, the researchers spent their days measuring every aspect of the sea ice including the snow and ice thickness, the depth of melt ponds on the surface, and the ice’s reflectivity. They wore red “survival suits” to insulate them during the occasional plunge through cracking ice into the Arctic Ocean.
“People did fall in, myself included,” Webster recounted with a laugh. “But that’s just part of it, you know.”
Braving the elements like this is part of essential research: Sea ice is a bellwether of the climate change in the Arctic. Due to our ever-increasing greenhouse gas emissions, the Arctic surface air temperatures have been warming rapidly — at twice the rate of the global average.
Historically, during the winter, sea ice has covered a vast swath of the Arctic Ocean, which fills much of the Arctic Circle. But as temperatures rise, it has been shrinking 12 percent every decade since measurements began in 1979.
Sea ice coverage fluctuates seasonally, hitting a low in September before forming again as temperatures drop in the fall — and expanding again by two to three times by the end of the winter in March. Webster and her team surveyed the summer conditions and the beginning of the “re-freeze.” But this year, that regrowth has been slower than ever. As October comes to a close, sea ice is at its lowest level for the month in recorded history.
Aboard the German icebreaker ship Polarstern, the changing ice conditions were palpable. Webster noticed in particular “just how easy it was to go across the Arctic, across the North Pole, like the ice is very thin,” she said. “It was easy to break through the ice pack, and the ship was only running on three engines rather than the full four.”
The shrinking and thinning out of Arctic sea ice is bad news for polar bears and indigenous people, who rely on the sea ice to hunt. The disappearance of the sea ice also further accelerates warming. When the white surface is replaced by a dark open ocean, more heat is absorbed and less light is reflected. According to a new study in Nature Communications, this feedback loop could add 0.19 degrees Celsius to the global temperature by mid-century, nearly wiping out the temperature effect of China going carbon neutral.
To understand what’s driving the dramatic transformation underway in the Arctic Ocean, let’s look at three compelling charts created by Colorado State University atmospheric scientist Zachary Labe.
Sea ice has hit a record low for October
The overall drop in sea ice is starkly evident in the chart below. It shows this year’s sea ice levels fall well below the median from 1981-2010. What this trend means is that the formerly snow-covered sea ice of the northernmost latitudes is increasingly turning into dark blue open ocean.
2020 produced frightening signs of the precariousness of Arctic sea ice. This month broke the record for the lowest sea ice extent in October, over 1.5 million square miles less than the 1980s average — an area larger than India, according to Labe.
This year’s sea ice minimum, which typically occurs in September after the summer melt, was also the second-lowest on record after 2012. The chart below shows how sea ice recovery in October has lagged behind the typical pattern of previous decades.
What has caused large parts of the Arctic to remain ice-free well into the fall? As Andres Flij of Severe Weather Europe points out, the Eastern Arctic Ocean (north of Siberia) has been several degrees Celsius warmer than the 1981 to 2010 average. These warm temperatures are making it difficult for ice to form.
The chart below shows that the Eastern Siberian, Laptev, and Kara seas (all part of the Eastern Arctic Ocean) have had particularly low sea ice formation compared to the recent past.
The consequences of an increasingly iceless Arctic Ocean
This October’s low sea ice extent might hold the record for a period, but climate scientists expect it will be surpassed in the years to come.
“We can expect to see substantial year-to-year variability, but overall the ice cover is becoming smaller and thinner during the fall months,” Labe said. “While 2020 is currently a record low, it may resemble a typical October in the not too distant future.” The Arctic Ocean is even projected to be ice-free in the summer as soon as 2050.
The decrease in ice has already affected indigenous people who use the sea ice to hunt for whales and seals. This has contributed to increasing food insecurity — in 2014, a Washington food bank supplied 10,000 pounds of halibut to indigenous communities in Alaska when the walrus hunt came up short, Ed Struzik reported for Yale Environment 360.
It also spells peril for polar bears, which also use the ice to hunt for food. A recent study in Nature Climate Change projects that polar bears will be nearly extinct by the end of the century due to the loss of habitat.
Changes in the ice are part of a larger “cascade effect,” as Webster describes it, in which delayed winter ice growth leads to thinner ice, which melts more easily in the summer months compared to older, thicker sea ice. This creates more open ocean.
This transformation contributes to both regional and global warming. Where a white sea ice surface would have reflected sunlight, the dark water absorbs heat, which further reduces ice growth. This change in albedo (or reflectivity) on sea and land in the Arctic is one of the main reasons the region is heating at twice the global average rate, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s 2019 Arctic Report Card. According to the recent Nature Communications study, it will also be a significant contributor to global warming.
Near Greenland — which holds a massive ice sheet — the warming loop set off by sea ice loss has a minor effect on its warming, but not a substantial effect on the ice sheet itself, researchers found in a 2019 study in Geophysical Research Letters.
The sea ice shift could also impact seasonal weather, potentially intensifying extreme weather. However, Labe says the issue requires further research. “Scientists are actively studying the connections between Arctic sea ice loss and wintertime weather patterns in North America, Europe, and Asia,” he said. “However, these relationships remain highly uncertain in the scientific literature and for seasonal weather forecasts.”
For now, the plummeting sea ice volumes are a startling reminder of just how rapidly the planet is changing, and how dire the consequences of delaying radical cuts in greenhouse gas emissions will be.