vox--2020-03-03--Parasite’s success is forcing a reckoning in Japan’s film industry

Share All sharing options for : Why Parasite ’ s success is forcing a reckoning in Japan ’ s film industry When Parasite won the Oscar for Best Picture last month , South Koreans were elated .
Everyone from the nation ’ s president to humble rice store owners celebrated in Seoul , Busan , and across the Korean diaspora , reveling in a truly unique accomplishment : that the first non-English-language film ever to win Best Picture at the Academy Awards was a Korean one .
But a few hundred miles east , Parasite and director Bong Joon-ho ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to reconsider the state of Japanese cinema — an industry that has arguably been in decline since the mid-20th century , when directors like Akira Kurosawa and Yasujirō Ozu transformed global cinema forever .
“ Despite the groundbreaking success of anime , Japanese live-action movies haven ’ t gotten attention since as far back as Kurosawa , ” wrote film journalist Tsukasa Shirakawa days after Parasite ’ s win .
“ It ’ s left us wondering why.
” “ Japanese cinema ” ( 日本映画 ) was trending on Japanese Twitter right after @ @ @ @ @ @ @ directors alike airing grievances about a film industry that is deeply flawed despite ample talent and a global appetite for Japanese goods .
“ Korea has been making world-class movies for decades , but Japan either can ’ t or won ’ t do it , ” one cinema enthusiast tweeted .
“ The thing that makes me upset is that if you go back 30 years , Japanese movies , just like Korean movies today—or even more so—were huge critical successes overseas and had an influence ” on global cinema , added @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Parasite won the International Feature Film Oscar and went on to take Best Picture ; Japan ’ s hit anime film Weathering With You failed to make the International Feature Film shortlist .
K-pop is a worldwide cultural phenomenon ; J-pop has an international hit once or twice per decade .
New York ’ s trendiest restaurants these days are Korean , not Japanese .
The story of Japan ’ s soft power , loosely defined as economic and cultural influence in international relations , is a complicated one .
Despite the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ products have become uniquely ingrained into American and global pop culture , paving a strong path forward for Japanese cinema if the industry is able to change .
The real “ threat ” to Japanese soft power is not the rise of South Korean pop culture or the whims of American taste , but economic issues on the ground : struggling studios and exploitative working conditions .
South Korea seized the world cultural stage by investing in technology and talent South Korea ’ s entertainment and culture industries are aggressively funded , cozy @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in global pop and cinema genres .
A victory like Parasite has long been in development for South Korea .
Michelle Cho , professor of East Asian studies at the University of Toronto , told me that the media and entertainment industries in South Korea have been heavily pushed to globalize in the past 20 years .
Throughout the 1990s and early 2000s , increased investment by the government and corporations in high-tech internet infrastructure and top-notch research and development , production , and design all contributed to building up cutting-edge entertainment products @ @ @ @ @ @ @ like the Ministry of Culture offer marketing and intermediary support for distribution as well as funding for film festival infrastructure , ” Cho said .
“ Government support has helped Korea become the renowned center for Asian filmmaking.
” Cho said that Korean entertainment products ’ use of familiar pop genres helps explain their widespread appeal .
“ Korean movies speak to a US genre entertainment audience , ” Cho said .
That audience includes horror fanatics as well as viewers who embrace the Asian exploitation genre of Quentin Tarantino films — films @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
“ You also hear about how K-pop ’ s innovation is the way it mixes musical genres , ” Cho said .
“ A K-pop song is designed to incorporate as many musical genres as possible , and that ’ s what excites the ear.
” Korea ’ s well-funded entertainment product is the ideal cultural export , mixing elite talent and production with familiar and exciting genres .
The results speak for themselves .
K-pop superstars BTS joined Lil Nas X to perform “ Old Town Road ” at the Grammys @ @ @ @ @ @ @ South Korean films are well-funded in general and the industry has seen drastic improvements in working conditions over the past decade .
In the production of Parasite , contracts for each individual ensured a maximum 52-hour workweek , minimum wage , overtime fees , and meal breaks .
That stands in stark contrast to Japan ’ s film industry , where worker exploitation is common practice .
“ A discussion panel at the Tokyo International Film Festival several years ago promoted Japan as a film location by saying that the benefit of shooting @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to work late nights and long hours with no overtime , ” Hiro Masuda , producer at Ichigo Ichie Films , a Japanese-international production company based in Tokyo , told me .
This , he said , is “ a typical mentality of the ‘ Cool Japan ’ initiative.
” “ Cool Japan ” is a Japanese government initiative launched in 2012 to promote Japan ’ s creative industries abroad .
It was derided by artists from the moment it launched for driving profit to advertising agencies that worked on the initiative rather @ @ @ @ @ @ @ programming that supports strong creative work .
According to data from Career Garden , a Japanese website providing information to job seekers , non-directorial positions at film studios in Japan earn around ¥200,000 per month ( ~ $ 1,850 US , or $ 22,200 US annually ) .
Meanwhile , film directors with steady careers earn about ¥4 million annually ( ~ $ 37,000 US ) .
Enough for a stable lifestyle , but still well below the median household income in Tokyo .
“ People working in the Japanese film industry are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , a film reporter for Japan ’ s Asahi Shimbun newspaper , told me .
“ Young people are obliged to labor for low wages and long hours .
I know many talented people who had no choice but to quit their job because of these conditions.
” In anime , working conditions may be even worse .
Junior animators are paid as little as $ 2 per drawing — each of which can take an hour or more .
An outdated industry model sends all of the profits to distribution and merchandise @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
World-renowned Japanese director Hirokazu Kore-eda gave an interview in 2016 decrying the state of Japanese cinema .
Even Kore-eda — who went on to win the Palme d ’ Or at the 2018 Cannes Film Festival for his acclaimed film Shoplifters , which subsequently earned Japan an Oscar nomination in the Best International Feature category — struggles to raise funds for his movies .
Kore-eda criticized “ Cool Japan ” for its arbitrary and ineffective initiatives , best represented by the Japan Day Project ( another government-run PR initiative ) , which @ @ @ @ @ @ @ adorable bear mascot , to a tuxedo party at the Cannes Film Festival in 2015 .
“ You can ’ t just go to Cannes , take photos with Kumamon , and say ‘ Cool Japan , ’ ” he said .
“ We have to actually support artistic talent.
” In addition to the poor working conditions , public film funding in Japan implicitly discourages filmmakers from more daring political themes and messages in their work .
“ Grants from the Agency of Cultural Affairs are influenced by the content of the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ so filmmakers tend to regulate their expressions in ways that prevent them from drawing on political themes.
” It ’ s uncommon to see social critiques like Parasite in Japanese theaters .
And while Shoplifters may be an important exception with its spotlight on poverty , Japanese Prime Minister Abe Shinzo ignored its success , not even giving Kore-eda a congratulatory call — most likely because of the movie ’ s social themes .
Japanese director Tadao Satō recently noted that in the golden days of Japanese cinema , movies pulled in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ artistically ambitious films .
“ But today , young filmmakers are not happy with the kinds of movies produced , ” Satō said .
“ Without a way of making profitable films , we haven ’ t reached the next stage , which would be to invest the profits to make high-quality artistic films that boost the prestige of studios.
” Japanese products have made their way into global pop culture for centuries — but influence is cyclical Especially in comparison to South Korea ’ s growth , Japan ’ s cultural exports @ @ @ @ @ @ @ from 2005 to 2012 .
A recent spurt of growth in cultural exports since 2013 can be more or less entirely attributed to anime .
Poorly funded live-action products made for Japanese markets by underpaid and overworked employees , unsurprisingly , haven ’ t succeeded in droves abroad .
But Japanese products have made their way into global pop culture for centuries .
“ Japanese ‘ soft power ’ has been on a slow burn since Japonisme , ” said Kerim Yasar , a professor of East Asian studies at the University of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ interest in Europe in Japanese art and design .
“ There have of course been cyclical peaks and troughs since then , but it always seems to keep coming back , ” Yasar added .
In the 1990s , for example , the Japanese economy crashed , and Japanese influence was perceived as on the decline .
Modes of Japanese pop culture that later captivated so many 21st-century Americans — namely anime , manga , and video games — were a part of youth cultural markets that Americans initially derided .
“ There @ @ @ @ @ @ @ went to Japan in the ’ 90s and essentially made fun of the youth culture , the shows and the games , ” said David Marx , author of Ametora : How Japan Saved American Style .
“ At first , we all made fun of Nintendo games — they were weird , the logic was weird .
A lot of music coming out of Japan was also on a totally different vector than American music — avant garde noise groups that influenced bands like Sonic Youth , ” Marx said .
But @ @ @ @ @ @ @ weird shows and games started to stick in the US .
Japan ’ s avant-garde scenes also made a significant impact abroad by experimenting with Western genres like punk rock and street fashion .
“ Cool Japan ” as we know it was born — and certainly not because of any government initiative .
“ Hollywood produced Ghost in the Shell , most people know that Transformers was originally Japanese , and everyone acknowledges that Hayao Miyazaki is the living master of animation , ” said Roland Kelts , author of Japanamerica .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ but categories of Japanese [ intellectual property ] like Nintendo and Ghibli reach audiences when they ’ re young , ” Kelts said .
“ When you ’ re a kid and you get into Pokémon , you ’ re a fan for life .
It will never let you go.
” In the 2000s , as the Japanese economy and middle class continued to contract , many of Japan ’ s diverse , niche subcultures began to vanish .
Devoted otaku collectors of manga and anime genres such as moe that focus @ @ @ @ @ @ @ verge on the pornographic and even pedophilic ) became the residing pop-culture-in-chiefs by lack of competition .
“ Since then , niches have further consolidated into mass culture , producing one mega-hit or two each year that everyone watches or reads , ” Marx said .
“ It ’ s not too different from what we see the US.
” Japan and South Korea can both succeed .
But Japan ’ s film industry still has a lot of work to do to thrive again .
Whether or not a Japanese film is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ South Korea ’ s entertainment industries can serve as a successful model for Japan ’ s flagging film industry .
“ It ’ s also critical to remember that soft power isn ’ t a zero-sum game .
That Korean pop culture is thriving around the world doesn ’ t come at the expense of Japan ’ s , or any other country ’ s culture , ” said Matt Alt , an author and translator specializing in video game work .
Cho agreed that soft power isn ’ t a zero-sum game @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is what she called “ Euro-American attention.
” “ This sense of competition is premised on the idea that North Americans don ’ t know how to differentiate between Asian cultures , ” Cho said .
“ However , I think this is changing.
” “ There ’ s room for more than one country to be a global influencer in Asia .
Japan has just become softer and more sophisticated , and Korea is more cutting-edge , more youthful , ” Marx said .
Soft power has opened space for Japanese cinema @ @ @ @ @ @ @ — more and more Americans congregate around cult favorites like Cowboy Bebop and Satoshi Kon films with each passing year — but the live-action film industry continues to struggle .
Envy from Japanese filmmakers does not come from a sense of competition with Korean filmmakers — on the contrary , Japanese creatives rallied behind Parasite director Bong Joon-ho — but instead is born from the reality that they struggle with poor working conditions in an industry seen flourishing overseas .
The stakes for their livelihoods and their work are pressing .
“ The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ industry , ” Masuda said .
“ If you don ’ t treat each film crew respectfully , you won ’ t have an industry that the next generation wants to work for .
Unfortunately , the failure of ‘ Cool Japan ’ is [ a major factor in ] why we don ’ t see improvement in the below-the-line work environment.
” The Japanese film industry also tends to drive out women .
“ In Japan , parenting remains largely the responsibility of women , ” Ito said , so “ it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ keep their careers.
” This is a shame especially considering the industry ’ s talented women directors , such as Mipo Oh , Yūki Yamato , and Yoko Yamanaka .
Ito said there is still a bright future for the industry — if Japan ’ s talented young filmmakers can find funding abroad .
“ In my opinion , a Japanese hit like Parasite is impossible , ” she said .
The most damning indictment comes from none other than Kore-eda , the legendary filmmaker himself .
“ I rarely hear the names @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , ” he said .
“ If we continue this way and only focus on what will be a domestic hit in Japan , Japanese movies will be forgotten from the world.
” Eric Margolis is a freelance writer and translator of Japanese .
Find him on Twitter @ EricDMargolis .

Share All sharing options for: Why Parasite’s success is forcing a reckoning in Japan’s film industry
When Parasite won the Oscar for Best Picture last month, South Koreans were elated.
Everyone from the nation’s president to humble rice store owners celebrated in Seoul, Busan, and across the Korean diaspora, reveling in a truly unique accomplishment: that the first non-English-language film ever to win Best Picture at the Academy Awards was a Korean one.
But a few hundred miles east, Parasite and director Bong Joon-ho’s victory forced Japanese filmmakers and critics to reconsider the state of Japanese cinema — an industry that has arguably been in decline since the mid-20th century, when directors like Akira Kurosawa and Yasujirō Ozu transformed global cinema forever.
“Despite the groundbreaking success of anime, Japanese live-action movies haven’t gotten attention since as far back as Kurosawa,” wrote film journalist Tsukasa Shirakawa days after Parasite’s win. “It’s left us wondering why.”
“Japanese cinema” (日本映画) was trending on Japanese Twitter right after the Oscars, with cinephiles and film directors alike airing grievances about a film industry that is deeply flawed despite ample talent and a global appetite for Japanese goods.
“Korea has been making world-class movies for decades, but Japan either can’t or won’t do it,” one cinema enthusiast tweeted.
“The thing that makes me upset is that if you go back 30 years, Japanese movies, just like Korean movies today—or even more so—were huge critical successes overseas and had an influence” on global cinema, added Satoru Murata, a DJ and photographer.
“South Korea’s soft power is eclipsing Japan’s,” New York Times reporter Hiroko Tabuchi tweeted.
Parasite won the International Feature Film Oscar and went on to take Best Picture; Japan’s hit anime film Weathering With You failed to make the International Feature Film shortlist. K-pop is a worldwide cultural phenomenon; J-pop has an international hit once or twice per decade. New York’s trendiest restaurants these days are Korean, not Japanese.
The story of Japan’s soft power, loosely defined as economic and cultural influence in international relations, is a complicated one. Despite the poor conditions for many creatives, Japanese products have become uniquely ingrained into American and global pop culture, paving a strong path forward for Japanese cinema if the industry is able to change.
The real “threat” to Japanese soft power is not the rise of South Korean pop culture or the whims of American taste, but economic issues on the ground: struggling studios and exploitative working conditions.
South Korea seized the world cultural stage by investing in technology and talent
South Korea’s entertainment and culture industries are aggressively funded, cozy with the government, and well versed in global pop and cinema genres.
A victory like Parasite has long been in development for South Korea. Michelle Cho, professor of East Asian studies at the University of Toronto, told me that the media and entertainment industries in South Korea have been heavily pushed to globalize in the past 20 years.
Throughout the 1990s and early 2000s, increased investment by the government and corporations in high-tech internet infrastructure and top-notch research and development, production, and design all contributed to building up cutting-edge entertainment products.
“Financial support from state entities like the Ministry of Culture offer marketing and intermediary support for distribution as well as funding for film festival infrastructure,” Cho said. “Government support has helped Korea become the renowned center for Asian filmmaking.”
Cho said that Korean entertainment products’ use of familiar pop genres helps explain their widespread appeal. “Korean movies speak to a US genre entertainment audience,” Cho said. That audience includes horror fanatics as well as viewers who embrace the Asian exploitation genre of Quentin Tarantino films — films like Old Boy and Memories of Murder.
“You also hear about how K-pop’s innovation is the way it mixes musical genres,” Cho said. “A K-pop song is designed to incorporate as many musical genres as possible, and that’s what excites the ear.”
Korea’s well-funded entertainment product is the ideal cultural export, mixing elite talent and production with familiar and exciting genres. The results speak for themselves. K-pop superstars BTS joined Lil Nas X to perform “Old Town Road” at the Grammys, for heaven’s sake.
Worker exploitation plagues Japan’s creative industries
South Korean films are well-funded in general and the industry has seen drastic improvements in working conditions over the past decade. In the production of Parasite, contracts for each individual ensured a maximum 52-hour workweek, minimum wage, overtime fees, and meal breaks.
That stands in stark contrast to Japan’s film industry, where worker exploitation is common practice.
“A discussion panel at the Tokyo International Film Festival several years ago promoted Japan as a film location by saying that the benefit of shooting in Japan is that crews are able to work late nights and long hours with no overtime,” Hiro Masuda, producer at Ichigo Ichie Films, a Japanese-international production company based in Tokyo, told me.
This, he said, is “a typical mentality of the ‘Cool Japan’ initiative.”
“Cool Japan” is a Japanese government initiative launched in 2012 to promote Japan’s creative industries abroad. It was derided by artists from the moment it launched for driving profit to advertising agencies that worked on the initiative rather than artists and has failed to fund programming that supports strong creative work.
According to data from Career Garden, a Japanese website providing information to job seekers, non-directorial positions at film studios in Japan earn around ¥200,000 per month (~$1,850 US, or $22,200 US annually). Meanwhile, film directors with steady careers earn about ¥4 million annually (~$37,000 US). Enough for a stable lifestyle, but still well below the median household income in Tokyo.
“People working in the Japanese film industry are under severe conditions,” Erina Ito, a film reporter for Japan’s Asahi Shimbun newspaper, told me. “Young people are obliged to labor for low wages and long hours. I know many talented people who had no choice but to quit their job because of these conditions.”
In anime, working conditions may be even worse. Junior animators are paid as little as $2 per drawing — each of which can take an hour or more. An outdated industry model sends all of the profits to distribution and merchandise companies, leaving animators with almost nothing.
World-renowned Japanese director Hirokazu Kore-eda gave an interview in 2016 decrying the state of Japanese cinema. Even Kore-eda — who went on to win the Palme d’Or at the 2018 Cannes Film Festival for his acclaimed film Shoplifters, which subsequently earned Japan an Oscar nomination in the Best International Feature category — struggles to raise funds for his movies.
Kore-eda criticized “Cool Japan” for its arbitrary and ineffective initiatives, best represented by the Japan Day Project (another government-run PR initiative), which brought Kumamon, Kumamoto Prefecture’s adorable bear mascot, to a tuxedo party at the Cannes Film Festival in 2015.
“You can’t just go to Cannes, take photos with Kumamon, and say ‘Cool Japan,’” he said. “We have to actually support artistic talent.”
In addition to the poor working conditions, public film funding in Japan implicitly discourages filmmakers from more daring political themes and messages in their work.
“Grants from the Agency of Cultural Affairs are influenced by the content of the proposed film,” Ito said, “so filmmakers tend to regulate their expressions in ways that prevent them from drawing on political themes.”
It’s uncommon to see social critiques like Parasite in Japanese theaters. And while Shoplifters may be an important exception with its spotlight on poverty, Japanese Prime Minister Abe Shinzo ignored its success, not even giving Kore-eda a congratulatory call — most likely because of the movie’s social themes.
Japanese director Tadao Satō recently noted that in the golden days of Japanese cinema, movies pulled in ample profits, funding the budgets of artistically ambitious films.
“But today, young filmmakers are not happy with the kinds of movies produced,” Satō said. “Without a way of making profitable films, we haven’t reached the next stage, which would be to invest the profits to make high-quality artistic films that boost the prestige of studios.”
Japanese products have made their way into global pop culture for centuries — but influence is cyclical
Especially in comparison to South Korea’s growth, Japan’s cultural exports in movies and music generally remained stagnant from 2005 to 2012. A recent spurt of growth in cultural exports since 2013 can be more or less entirely attributed to anime.
Poorly funded live-action products made for Japanese markets by underpaid and overworked employees, unsurprisingly, haven’t succeeded in droves abroad.
But Japanese products have made their way into global pop culture for centuries. “Japanese ‘soft power’ has been on a slow burn since Japonisme,” said Kerim Yasar, a professor of East Asian studies at the University of Southern California, referring to the late-19th-century interest in Europe in Japanese art and design.
“There have of course been cyclical peaks and troughs since then, but it always seems to keep coming back,” Yasar added.
In the 1990s, for example, the Japanese economy crashed, and Japanese influence was perceived as on the decline. Modes of Japanese pop culture that later captivated so many 21st-century Americans — namely anime, manga, and video games — were a part of youth cultural markets that Americans initially derided.
“There are plenty of instances where American journalists went to Japan in the ’90s and essentially made fun of the youth culture, the shows and the games,” said David Marx, author of Ametora: How Japan Saved American Style.
“At first, we all made fun of Nintendo games — they were weird, the logic was weird. A lot of music coming out of Japan was also on a totally different vector than American music — avant garde noise groups that influenced bands like Sonic Youth,” Marx said.
But in the late ’90s, those weird shows and games started to stick in the US. Japan’s avant-garde scenes also made a significant impact abroad by experimenting with Western genres like punk rock and street fashion. “Cool Japan” as we know it was born — and certainly not because of any government initiative.
“Hollywood produced Ghost in the Shell, most people know that Transformers was originally Japanese, and everyone acknowledges that Hayao Miyazaki is the living master of animation,” said Roland Kelts, author of Japanamerica.
“Korean pop culture is fantastic, but categories of Japanese [intellectual property] like Nintendo and Ghibli reach audiences when they’re young,” Kelts said. “When you’re a kid and you get into Pokémon, you’re a fan for life. It will never let you go.”
In the 2000s, as the Japanese economy and middle class continued to contract, many of Japan’s diverse, niche subcultures began to vanish. Devoted otaku collectors of manga and anime genres such as moe that focus on depicting adolescent girls (which can verge on the pornographic and even pedophilic) became the residing pop-culture-in-chiefs by lack of competition.
“Since then, niches have further consolidated into mass culture, producing one mega-hit or two each year that everyone watches or reads,” Marx said. “It’s not too different from what we see the US.”
Japan and South Korea can both succeed. But Japan’s film industry still has a lot of work to do to thrive again.
Whether or not a Japanese film is able to win an Academy Award, South Korea’s entertainment industries can serve as a successful model for Japan’s flagging film industry.
“It’s also critical to remember that soft power isn’t a zero-sum game. That Korean pop culture is thriving around the world doesn’t come at the expense of Japan’s, or any other country’s culture,” said Matt Alt, an author and translator specializing in video game work.
Cho agreed that soft power isn’t a zero-sum game, but said that what is limited is what she called “Euro-American attention.” “This sense of competition is premised on the idea that North Americans don’t know how to differentiate between Asian cultures,” Cho said. “However, I think this is changing.”
“There’s room for more than one country to be a global influencer in Asia. Japan has just become softer and more sophisticated, and Korea is more cutting-edge, more youthful,” Marx said.
Soft power has opened space for Japanese cinema in the hearts and minds of Americans — more and more Americans congregate around cult favorites like Cowboy Bebop and Satoshi Kon films with each passing year — but the live-action film industry continues to struggle.
Envy from Japanese filmmakers does not come from a sense of competition with Korean filmmakers — on the contrary, Japanese creatives rallied behind Parasite director Bong Joon-ho — but instead is born from the reality that they struggle with poor working conditions in an industry seen flourishing overseas. The stakes for their livelihoods and their work are pressing.
“The creative industry is a people’s industry,” Masuda said. “If you don’t treat each film crew respectfully, you won’t have an industry that the next generation wants to work for. Unfortunately, the failure of ‘Cool Japan’ is [a major factor in] why we don’t see improvement in the below-the-line work environment.”
The Japanese film industry also tends to drive out women. “In Japan, parenting remains largely the responsibility of women,” Ito said, so “it is very difficult for female filmmakers to keep their careers.” This is a shame especially considering the industry’s talented women directors, such as Mipo Oh, Yūki Yamato, and Yoko Yamanaka.
Ito said there is still a bright future for the industry — if Japan’s talented young filmmakers can find funding abroad. “In my opinion, a Japanese hit like Parasite is impossible,” she said.
The most damning indictment comes from none other than Kore-eda, the legendary filmmaker himself.
“I rarely hear the names of any of our young directors abroad,” he said. “If we continue this way and only focus on what will be a domestic hit in Japan, Japanese movies will be forgotten from the world.”
Eric Margolis is a freelance writer and translator of Japanese. Find him on Twitter @EricDMargolis.


vox--2020-03-03--We might not know who won the California primary for days or weeks

California is the biggest prize on the biggest night of the presidential primary — but we ’ re probably going to have to wait a while to know who won it .
The Golden State moved its primary from June ( in the 2016 primary ) to March 3 for the first time this year , bringing with it a 415-delegate haul .
That addition means that just over a third of all pledged delegates to the Democratic National Convention in July will be won on Super Tuesday .
But because of California ’ s size and its exceptionally voter-friendly @ @ @ @ @ @ @ much as a month to finish counting the state ’ s votes .
( Or at least , that ’ s how long it took in 2016 . )
Thankfully , according to three election experts , it probably won ’ t take quite that long for California ’ s primary on Tuesday — but it won ’ t exactly be fast either .
Estimates for how long it ’ ll take to finish counting votes ranged from “ a few days ” to “ weeks.
” Bob Shrum , a veteran of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Jesse M. Unruh Institute of Politics at the University of Southern California , said that a week was “ an optimistic estimate.
” There are two main culprits for the slow counting .
One : mail-in ballots .
California ’ s vote-by-mail system — which allows voters to put their ballots in the mail as late as midnight on election day , as long as they ’ re postmarked that day — means that votes trickle in for days after the polls have closed .
Despite the potential for slow vote-counting , voting @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for democracy .
As Vox ’ s David Roberts reported in 2018 : California isn ’ t the only state to vote by mail — Colorado , Hawaii , Oregon , and Washington do too — but its size exacerbates the delay in counting votes .
Barry Burden , who is the director of the Elections Research Center at the University of Wisconsin Madison , says that mail-in ballots also take longer to count in some cases : Checking that ballot signatures match , problems with mail-in envelopes , and myriad other issues @ @ @ @ @ @ @ result is a process that ’ s “ much more labor-intensive than an Election Day vote , ” he told Vox .
Provisional ballots also pose an additional challenge to quickly reporting results .
Such ballots — which are used when there are questions about a voter ’ s registration status or residency — aren ’ t unique to California .
In fact , they ’ re used everywhere ; provisional ballots are required by the Help America Vote Act of 2002 , which was implemented in response to the 2000 presidential election @ @ @ @ @ @ @ California is exceptional … in its willingness to give voters provisional ballots , ” and while in many states the majority of provisional ballots are rejected , in California they mostly end up getting counted .
Verifying and counting those ballots takes additional time , which contributes to the slow counting of votes .
If you ’ re beginning to notice a theme here , you ’ d be right to : Writ large , California ’ s voting system is much , much more pro-voter than those in many other states .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ Experts say it ’ s unrealistic to expect immediate election results Shrum phrases the trade-off a little differently : California , he says , “ prioritizes the right to vote over the media ’ s thirst for results.
” And while not every state is as voter-friendly as California is — see : Georgia in 2018 — it ’ s likely that more states might start taking longer to report results .
Texas , for example — another Super Tuesday state and the third-largest delegate trove in the primary — could be unable @ @ @ @ @ @ @ due to a “ revamped reporting system.
” According to a Texas Tribune story by Alexa Ura , as of earlier in February : “ The Texas Democratic party was preparing for an Iowa-like scenario in which the full delegate distribution would not be available until at least the next day.
” The Texas Secretary of State ’ s Office , however , has pushed back on reports of a possible delay ; a spokesperson told the Tribune that “ any allegations that delegate allocations will not be reported on election night are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that “ stakeholders just need to get used to the idea that Election Day is not the end .
That is quickly evaporating in US elections as a standard.
” That ’ s not necessarily a bad thing , though .
Unlike in Iowa , California ’ s slow counting is “ a feature , not a bug.
” Edward Foley , who runs the election law program at Ohio State University , says it might be for the best that people get used to it now .
“ If the media recognizes @ @ @ @ @ @ @ just not going to get results when they want them … they can kind of accept that and cope with that , ” Foley said .
“ That could be a beneficial learning process for getting ready for November , where that can happen in pivotal Electoral College battlegrounds like Pennsylvania and Arizona and Michigan.
” There are still worries , of course : Lonna Atkeson , who runs the University of New Mexico ’ s Center for the Study of Voting , Elections , and Democracy , says the delay could open @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of its system — similar to the type of conspiracy theories that sprung up around the Iowa caucuses this year .
“ When it takes a week to count ballots , it ’ s hard to explain that process , especially when most other states don ’ t have those kinds of liberal laws , ” Atkeson said .
“ I think that that makes it easier to take jabs at their process by people like [ President Trump ] , right ?
” However , Burden says the California primary will likely @ @ @ @ @ @ @ doesn ’ t believe anything like an Iowa-style mishap is in the cards in the state .
“ This is a state-run primary election , ” Burden said .
“ These are government officials whose daily jobs are about being professional election administrators .
They are trained , they are preparing to do this.
” It ’ s just going to take a while .

California is the biggest prize on the biggest night of the presidential primary — but we’re probably going to have to wait a while to know who won it.
The Golden State moved its primary from June (in the 2016 primary) to March 3 for the first time this year, bringing with it a 415-delegate haul. That addition means that just over a third of all pledged delegates to the Democratic National Convention in July will be won on Super Tuesday. But because of California’s size and its exceptionally voter-friendly electoral system, it can take as much as a month to finish counting the state’s votes. (Or at least, that’s how long it took in 2016.)
Thankfully, according to three election experts, it probably won’t take quite that long for California’s primary on Tuesday — but it won’t exactly be fast either.
Estimates for how long it’ll take to finish counting votes ranged from “a few days” to “weeks.” Bob Shrum, a veteran of presidential races and the director of the Jesse M. Unruh Institute of Politics at the University of Southern California, said that a week was “an optimistic estimate.”
There are two main culprits for the slow counting. One: mail-in ballots. California’s vote-by-mail system — which allows voters to put their ballots in the mail as late as midnight on election day, as long as they’re postmarked that day — means that votes trickle in for days after the polls have closed.
Despite the potential for slow vote-counting, voting by mail has a lot of upsides for democracy. As Vox’s David Roberts reported in 2018:
Vote-at-home (VAH) systems, using old-fashioned postal mail and paper ballots, are just better. They increase turnout and make voting a more positive experience.
California isn’t the only state to vote by mail — Colorado, Hawaii, Oregon, and Washington do too — but its size exacerbates the delay in counting votes.
Barry Burden, who is the director of the Elections Research Center at the University of Wisconsin Madison, says that mail-in ballots also take longer to count in some cases: Checking that ballot signatures match, problems with mail-in envelopes, and myriad other issues can all slow things down.
The result is a process that’s “much more labor-intensive than an Election Day vote,” he told Vox.
Provisional ballots also pose an additional challenge to quickly reporting results. Such ballots — which are used when there are questions about a voter’s registration status or residency — aren’t unique to California. In fact, they’re used everywhere; provisional ballots are required by the Help America Vote Act of 2002, which was implemented in response to the 2000 presidential election.
But, Burden says, “California is exceptional … in its willingness to give voters provisional ballots,” and while in many states the majority of provisional ballots are rejected, in California they mostly end up getting counted. Verifying and counting those ballots takes additional time, which contributes to the slow counting of votes.
If you’re beginning to notice a theme here, you’d be right to: Writ large, California’s voting system is much, much more pro-voter than those in many other states. The trade-off for that is speed.
Experts say it’s unrealistic to expect immediate election results
Shrum phrases the trade-off a little differently: California, he says, “prioritizes the right to vote over the media’s thirst for results.”
And while not every state is as voter-friendly as California is — see: Georgia in 2018 — it’s likely that more states might start taking longer to report results.
Texas, for example — another Super Tuesday state and the third-largest delegate trove in the primary — could be unable to assign delegate totals on election night due to a “revamped reporting system.” According to a Texas Tribune story by Alexa Ura, as of earlier in February: “The Texas Democratic party was preparing for an Iowa-like scenario in which the full delegate distribution would not be available until at least the next day.”
The Texas Secretary of State’s Office, however, has pushed back on reports of a possible delay; a spokesperson told the Tribune that “any allegations that delegate allocations will not be reported on election night are categorically false.”
Regardless, Burden says that “stakeholders just need to get used to the idea that Election Day is not the end. That is quickly evaporating in US elections as a standard.”
That’s not necessarily a bad thing, though. Unlike in Iowa, California’s slow counting is “a feature, not a bug.”
Edward Foley, who runs the election law program at Ohio State University, says it might be for the best that people get used to it now.
“If the media recognizes on Super Tuesday that they’re just not going to get results when they want them … they can kind of accept that and cope with that,” Foley said. “That could be a beneficial learning process for getting ready for November, where that can happen in pivotal Electoral College battlegrounds like Pennsylvania and Arizona and Michigan.”
There are still worries, of course: Lonna Atkeson, who runs the University of New Mexico’s Center for the Study of Voting, Elections, and Democracy, says the delay could open up California to attacks on the legitimacy of its system — similar to the type of conspiracy theories that sprung up around the Iowa caucuses this year.
“When it takes a week to count ballots, it’s hard to explain that process, especially when most other states don’t have those kinds of liberal laws,” Atkeson said. “I think that that makes it easier to take jabs at their process by people like [President Trump], right?”
However, Burden says the California primary will likely go off without a hitch — he doesn’t believe anything like an Iowa-style mishap is in the cards in the state.
“This is a state-run primary election,” Burden said. “These are government officials whose daily jobs are about being professional election administrators. They are trained, they are preparing to do this.”
It’s just going to take a while.


vox--2020-03-03--When Super Tuesday polls close — and when we might get results

The early states have voted , and now the 2020 Democratic presidential primary is heading for a national reckoning on Tuesday , when a total of 14 states and one territory hold their primaries or caucuses .
Super Tuesday offers the largest single-day delegate haul of the 2020 primary , underpinned by California ( 415 delegates ) and Texas ( 228 delegates ) .
A significant swathe of the South — Alabama , Arkansas , North Carolina , Tennessee , and Virginia — also vote on March 3 , as will Colorado , Maine , Massachusetts , Minnesota , Oklahoma @ @ @ @ @ @ @ US territory of American Samoa will caucus the same day .
The national scale of Super Tuesday means that poll closings will be staggered by time zone across the country .
The earliest polls close at 7 pm Eastern — with the possible exception of American Samoa , which observes Samoa Standard Time ( six hours behind Eastern time ) .
The territory might be the first to report results ; its caucuses begin at 3 pm Eastern and results could be available as early as three hours later , according to the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The territory has only six delegates up for grabs , however .
The last state to close its polls will be California , at 11 pm Eastern — though it could take days , if not weeks , to get full results from the delegate behemoth .
Here are the poll closing times , in Eastern time and local , listed alphabetically by state or territory : • Alabama : 8 pm Eastern , 7 pm local ( though some localities unofficially follow Eastern time and may report votes at 7 pm Eastern @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ( home to Sen. Bernie Sanders ) and Maine ( where Sanders leads by more than 12 points in the FiveThirtyEight state polling average ) — could be called shortly after the polls close on Tuesday .
Others , however , could take longer , thanks to a field that ’ s still crowded compared with the 2016 primary and a race that ’ s still very much in flux .
Tuesday could decide the race — or not For the five remaining candidates in the race , the stakes on Tuesday are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ frontrunner for the Democratic nomination , will be looking to secure an insurmountable delegate plurality , and he ’ s leading in the FiveThirtyEight polling averages for delegate-rich California and Texas .
Former Vice President Joe Biden , meanwhile , will be looking to cement his ( 77-year-old ) “ comeback kid ” narrative after a dominating win in the South Carolina primary over the weekend .
His strength with African American voters could help him finish strong on Tuesday .
Biden is also poised to benefit from the recent winnowing of the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , Indiana , Mayor Pete Buttigieg and Sen. Amy Klobuchar dropped out of the race after Saturday ’ s South Carolina primary , and both endorsed Biden on Monday night at a rally in Dallas .
That could help further consolidate him as the moderate standard-bearer over billionaire Mike Bloomberg .
After a pair of punishing debates , Bloomberg will be making his first appearance on a ballot on Tuesday ; the billionaire has staked his candidacy on an unprecedented strategy focused on Super Tuesday , and he ’ s employed an ad @ @ @ @ @ @ @ boost his numbers in the polls .
Sen. Elizabeth Warren ’ s campaign , meanwhile , could be on the back foot going out of Super Tuesday — Sanders is a threat to win in her home state of Massachusetts .
He ’ s leading in the FiveThirtyEight polling average there , and a loss for Warren at home could be the coup de grâce for her already flagging candidacy .
For all of the candidates still in the race , Super Tuesday represents something of a question mark .
The flurry of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ status or give Biden a claim to the mantle ; they could also put us down a path to a brokered convention .
Regardless , the race won ’ t slow down from there : Another major delegate haul will be up for grabs next week on March 10 , when six states vote , and there ’ s another Democratic debate — the 11th !
— scheduled for March 15 .
Before all of that , however , Super Tuesday has the potential to reshape the race .

The early states have voted, and now the 2020 Democratic presidential primary is heading for a national reckoning on Tuesday, when a total of 14 states and one territory hold their primaries or caucuses.
Super Tuesday offers the largest single-day delegate haul of the 2020 primary, underpinned by California (415 delegates) and Texas (228 delegates).
A significant swathe of the South — Alabama, Arkansas, North Carolina, Tennessee, and Virginia — also vote on March 3, as will Colorado, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Oklahoma, Utah, and Vermont. The US territory of American Samoa will caucus the same day.
The national scale of Super Tuesday means that poll closings will be staggered by time zone across the country. The earliest polls close at 7 pm Eastern — with the possible exception of American Samoa, which observes Samoa Standard Time (six hours behind Eastern time).
The territory might be the first to report results; its caucuses begin at 3 pm Eastern and results could be available as early as three hours later, according to the American Samoa Democratic Party Facebook page. The territory has only six delegates up for grabs, however. The last state to close its polls will be California, at 11 pm Eastern — though it could take days, if not weeks, to get full results from the delegate behemoth.
Here are the poll closing times, in Eastern time and local, listed alphabetically by state or territory:
Alabama: 8 pm Eastern, 7 pm local (though some localities unofficially follow Eastern time and may report votes at 7 pm Eastern)
8 pm Eastern, 7 pm local (though some localities unofficially follow Eastern time and may report votes at 7 pm Eastern) American Samoa: 3 pm Eastern, 9 am local
3 pm Eastern, 9 am local Arkansas: 8:30 pm Eastern, 7:30 pm local
8:30 pm Eastern, 7:30 pm local California: 11 pm Eastern, 8 pm local
11 pm Eastern, 8 pm local Colorado: 9 pm Eastern, 7 pm local
9 pm Eastern, 7 pm local Maine: 8 pm Eastern
8 pm Eastern Massachusetts: 8 pm Eastern
8 pm Eastern Minnesota: 9 pm Eastern, 8 pm local
9 pm Eastern, 8 pm local North Carolina: 7:30 pm Eastern
7:30 pm Eastern Oklahoma: 8 pm Eastern, 7 pm local
8 pm Eastern, 7 pm local Tennessee: 8 pm Eastern, 7 pm local; all polls in Davidson County will remain open until 9 pm Eastern, 8 pm local following a tornado Tuesday morning, and five sites will remain open until 11 pm Eastern, 10 pm local (Tennessee is partially in Eastern time and partially in Central time)
8 pm Eastern, 7 pm local; all polls in Davidson County will remain open until 9 pm Eastern, 8 pm local following a tornado Tuesday morning, and five sites will remain open until 11 pm Eastern, 10 pm local (Tennessee is partially in Eastern time and partially in Central time) Texas: 8 pm Eastern, 7 pm local
8 pm Eastern, 7 pm local Utah: 10 pm Eastern, 8 pm local
10 pm Eastern, 8 pm local Vermont: 7 pm Eastern
7 pm Eastern Virginia: 7 pm Eastern
Some states, such as Vermont (home to Sen. Bernie Sanders) and Maine (where Sanders leads by more than 12 points in the FiveThirtyEight state polling average) — could be called shortly after the polls close on Tuesday. Others, however, could take longer, thanks to a field that’s still crowded compared with the 2016 primary and a race that’s still very much in flux.
Tuesday could decide the race — or not
For the five remaining candidates in the race, the stakes on Tuesday are high. Sanders, the current national frontrunner for the Democratic nomination, will be looking to secure an insurmountable delegate plurality, and he’s leading in the FiveThirtyEight polling averages for delegate-rich California and Texas.
Former Vice President Joe Biden, meanwhile, will be looking to cement his (77-year-old) “comeback kid” narrative after a dominating win in the South Carolina primary over the weekend. His strength with African American voters could help him finish strong on Tuesday.
Biden is also poised to benefit from the recent winnowing of the moderate lane: Both former South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg and Sen. Amy Klobuchar dropped out of the race after Saturday’s South Carolina primary, and both endorsed Biden on Monday night at a rally in Dallas. That could help further consolidate him as the moderate standard-bearer over billionaire Mike Bloomberg.
After a pair of punishing debates, Bloomberg will be making his first appearance on a ballot on Tuesday; the billionaire has staked his candidacy on an unprecedented strategy focused on Super Tuesday, and he’s employed an ad strategy likened to “carpet-bombing” to boost his numbers in the polls.
Sen. Elizabeth Warren’s campaign, meanwhile, could be on the back foot going out of Super Tuesday — Sanders is a threat to win in her home state of Massachusetts. He’s leading in the FiveThirtyEight polling average there, and a loss for Warren at home could be the coup de grâce for her already flagging candidacy.
For all of the candidates still in the race, Super Tuesday represents something of a question mark. The flurry of primaries could reinforce Sanders’s frontrunner status or give Biden a claim to the mantle; they could also put us down a path to a brokered convention.
Regardless, the race won’t slow down from there: Another major delegate haul will be up for grabs next week on March 10, when six states vote, and there’s another Democratic debate — the 11th! — scheduled for March 15. Before all of that, however, Super Tuesday has the potential to reshape the race.


Super Tuesday 2020

The biggest day of the Democratic primary could reshape the presidential race .
After a month of early-state contests , the Democratic primary is about to go national : Voters in 14 states and one territory will weigh in on the presidential race this Tuesday , March 3 — Super Tuesday .
Just over a third of all delegates to the Democratic National Convention in July are up for grabs , including California ’ s 415-delegate haul .
There are just five candidates left in the race : former Vice President Joe Biden , Sens .
Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Rep. Tulsi Gabbard .
In addition to California , a significant swath of the South — Alabama , Arkansas , North Carolina , Tennessee , and Virginia — will vote on Tuesday , as will Colorado , Maine , Massachusetts , Minnesota , Oklahoma , Utah , Texas , and Vermont .
The US territory of American Samoa will also caucus Tuesday .
The national scale of Super Tuesday means that poll closings will be staggered by time zone across the country .
The earliest polls close at 7 pm Eastern — with @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in American Samoa — and the last , in California , close at 11 pm Eastern .
However , it ’ s likely that we won ’ t see complete results from California ( and possibly Texas ) on the night of the primary .
For Sanders , Super Tuesday is a chance to potentially lock in an unassailable plurality of delegates with strong performances in California , Texas , and elsewhere .
However , his status as the national frontrunner for the Democratic nomination could be under threat following a strong performance @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Additionally , much of the moderate lane — specifically former South Bend , Indiana , Mayor Pete Buttigieg and Sen. Amy Klobuchar — has exited the race and lent their support to Biden .
Super Tuesday also offers a first electoral test for Bloomberg : While he ’ s appeared on two debate stages and in hundreds of millions of dollars ’ worth of ads since declaring his candidacy in November , Tuesday will be the first time his name appears on a ballot in the Democratic primary .
Warren , meanwhile @ @ @ @ @ @ @ defensive : Sanders currently has an advantage of more than 5 points in the FiveThirtyEight polling average for Massachusetts , and losing her home state could be a devastating blow to the Massachusetts senator ’ s campaign .
Follow along below for Vox ’ s coverage of Super Tuesday 2020 , including live results , breaking news updates , analysis , and more .

After a month of early-state contests, the Democratic primary went national on Tuesday night: Voters in 14 states and one territory weighed in on the presidential race on Super Tuesday, the single biggest night of the race.
Just over a third of all delegates to the Democratic National Convention in July were up for grabs, including California’s 415-delegate haul. When the night began, there were just five candidates left in the race: former Vice President Joe Biden, Sens. Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren, billionaire Mike Bloomberg, and Rep. Tulsi Gabbard.
Now that number is down to four. Bloomberg ended his campaign and endorsed Biden on Wednesday morning after failing to win a state.
For Biden, the day’s races unfolded in the opposite way: Super Tuesday quickly turned into a best-case scenario for his revitalized campaign. The former vice president won 10 states and vastly outperformed expectations with victories in Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, and elsewhere.
He also claimed Texas, receiving a healthy share of that state’s 228 delegates (the second-largest delegate prize of the day) and showed overwhelming strength with black voters in the South.
Sanders had a good night, too: He racked up wins in at least three states, and all signs point to him being on track for a fourth win in California. However, his campaign went into Super Tuesday looking to potentially lock in an unassailable plurality of delegates with wins in Texas, Massachusetts, and elsewhere, and that did not come to pass.
For Warren and Gabbard, Super Tuesday wasn’t nearly as super: Warren was relegated to a devastating third-place finish in her home state of Massachusetts and failed to win many delegates. Gabbard, who was not widely expected to do well in any of the day’s contests, did win one delegate in her birth territory of American Samoa.
With Super Tuesday’s conclusion, 14 more states — California, Alabama, Arkansas, North Carolina, Tennessee, Virginia, Colorado, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Oklahoma, Utah, Texas, and Vermont — and the US territory of American Samoa have now cast their votes for the Democratic nominee. The next big day of contests comes on March 10, just one week after Super Tuesday, when six states will vote.
Follow along below for Vox’s coverage of Super Tuesday 2020, including live results, breaking news updates, analysis, and more.


California primary 2020

California , along with 13 other states and one territory , will hold its primary this Tuesday , March 3 — Super Tuesday .
It ’ s a first for the state , which didn ’ t vote until June during the 2016 primary .
Now that California has joined the fun , Super Tuesday is more super than ever : More than a third of all delegates to the Democratic National Convention in July will be allotted , and California , with its 415-delegate haul , is the centerpiece of that contest .
For all that , though , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ before we know the full results from the state .
While polls close at 11 pm Eastern / 8 pm local , California ’ s size , vote-by-mail system , and a few other quirks mean that the state takes a while to tally all the votes .
In 2016 , it took a month , though it was clear that eventual Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton had won long before that .
We can only hope it won ’ t take quite as long in 2020 , but it ’ s not going @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Polls , however , provide some guidance : The FiveThirtyEight California polling average shows Sen. Bernie Sanders firmly in the driver ’ s seat , with a lead of almost 14 points over former Vice President Joe Biden .
Recent shake-ups in the field could give Biden a boost , though .
The moderate lane thinned considerably between the South Carolina primary and Super Tuesday , with both former South Bend , Indiana , Mayor Pete Buttigieg and Sen. Amy Klobuchar dropping out and endorsing the former veep .
Prior to their @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a combined 13 percent in California , according to the FiveThirtyEight average .
If Biden manages to win even a portion of that support , he could have a better night than expected .
Early voting in California , however , means that there ’ s a limit to how much things can move around — some portion of votes have already been cast for candidates no longer in the race .
For Sen. Elizabeth Warren and billionaire Mike Bloomberg — who are running at about 15 and 13 percent in the California @ @ @ @ @ @ @ question is whether they will break the 15 percent threshold required to claim delegates in the state .
Follow along below for Vox ’ s coverage of the 2020 California primary , including live results , breaking news updates , analysis , and more .

California, a new participant in Super Tuesday, offers the single largest delegate haul of the primary calendar.
California, along with 13 other states and one territory, will hold its primary this Tuesday, March 3 — Super Tuesday.
It’s a first for the state, which didn’t vote until June during the 2016 primary. Now that California has joined the fun, Super Tuesday is more super than ever: More than a third of all delegates to the Democratic National Convention in July will be allotted, and California, with its 415-delegate haul, is the centerpiece of that contest.
For all that, though, it’ll probably be a while before we know the full results from the state. While polls close at 11 pm Eastern / 8 pm local, California’s size, vote-by-mail system, and a few other quirks mean that the state takes a while to tally all the votes.
In 2016, it took a month, though it was clear that eventual Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton had won long before that. We can only hope it won’t take quite as long in 2020, but it’s not going to be quick no matter what happens.
Polls, however, provide some guidance: The FiveThirtyEight California polling average shows Sen. Bernie Sanders firmly in the driver’s seat, with a lead of almost 14 points over former Vice President Joe Biden.
Recent shake-ups in the field could give Biden a boost, though. The moderate lane thinned considerably between the South Carolina primary and Super Tuesday, with both former South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg and Sen. Amy Klobuchar dropping out and endorsing the former veep.
Prior to their exits, the pair were polling at a combined 13 percent in California, according to the FiveThirtyEight average. If Biden manages to win even a portion of that support, he could have a better night than expected.
Early voting in California, however, means that there’s a limit to how much things can move around — some portion of votes have already been cast for candidates no longer in the race.
For Sen. Elizabeth Warren and billionaire Mike Bloomberg — who are running at about 15 and 13 percent in the California polling average, respectively — the central question is whether they will break the 15 percent threshold required to claim delegates in the state.
Follow along below for Vox’s coverage of the 2020 California primary, including live results, breaking news updates, analysis, and more.


vox--2020-03-03--10 cities captured nearly 50% of the growth in new tech jobs

US jobs in tech , arguably the dominant industry of our time , are increasingly concentrating in a handful of already prominent tech cities , according to the Brookings Institution ’ s new analysis of census data .
This means that tech companies are sourcing employment from a more stratified portion of the country while vast swaths of America are missing out on the economic growth tied to the industry .
In an essay and a brief for the American Enterprise Institute , Brookings looked specifically at the distribution of digital service jobs in the US , such as those @ @ @ @ @ @ @ hosting ; computer systems design ; and web publishing and search — all jobs that we typically think of as “ tech.
” Since 2010 , the overall number of jobs in these fields increased in numerous cities , but only a few cities increased their overall share of tech jobs .
In other words , the number of tech jobs is growing nationwide , but it ’ s growing much faster in a few cities .
The 10 metro areas with the highest shares of digital service jobs accounted for nearly half @ @ @ @ @ @ @ They also captured about half of the growth in nearly a million new tech jobs added since 2010 .
About a third of the national increase was concentrated in San Francisco , Seattle , San Jose , Los Angeles , and Austin alone .
The vast majority of cities , however , either lost tech jobs or saw no change in that time .
The result is that tech companies , which are increasingly shaping the way Americans live and work , are potentially missing out on crucial diversity when it comes to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ new ideas and make decisions .
As Mark Muro , senior fellow of the Metropolitan Policy Program at Brookings , put it , “ Power and command control decisions are becoming more and more centralized.
” The rest of the country also misses out on the economic windfall created by these companies .
That includes not only the high-paying jobs at those companies but also spending from those new workers , as well as the secondary benefits of industries and public works catered to them .
“ Most of the country is not @ @ @ @ @ @ @ might if this were a better-distributed industry , ” Muro told Recode .
“ Relatively few Americans are able to plug into the most dynamic industry of our time.
” Tech jobs are consolidating in fewer areas due in part to the nature of tech , which feeds off of network effects more than many other industries .
Tech companies require big pools of tech workers , as well as other nearby tech companies , to support their operations .
Over time , these cities become bastions of tech companies and workers , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ other tech infrastructure , like fast broadband internet , public transit , and a higher quality of living .
Over time , despite increasingly high costs of living , the pull of these cities for new jobs and new residents has gotten stronger , not weaker .
This research expands on previous work Brookings published late last year , when the think tank looked more broadly at the innovation sector , which also included a number of hardware and aerospace industries .
At the time , they found that 90 percent of growth @ @ @ @ @ @ @ five metro areas : Boston , the San Francisco Bay Area , San Jose , Seattle , and San Diego .

US jobs in tech, arguably the dominant industry of our time, are increasingly concentrating in a handful of already prominent tech cities, according to the Brookings Institution’s new analysis of census data. This means that tech companies are sourcing employment from a more stratified portion of the country while vast swaths of America are missing out on the economic growth tied to the industry.
In an essay and a brief for the American Enterprise Institute, Brookings looked specifically at the distribution of digital service jobs in the US, such as those in software publishing; data processing and hosting; computer systems design; and web publishing and search — all jobs that we typically think of as “tech.” Since 2010, the overall number of jobs in these fields increased in numerous cities, but only a few cities increased their overall share of tech jobs. In other words, the number of tech jobs is growing nationwide, but it’s growing much faster in a few cities.
The 10 metro areas with the highest shares of digital service jobs accounted for nearly half of these jobs nationwide in 2018. They also captured about half of the growth in nearly a million new tech jobs added since 2010. About a third of the national increase was concentrated in San Francisco, Seattle, San Jose, Los Angeles, and Austin alone. The vast majority of cities, however, either lost tech jobs or saw no change in that time.
The result is that tech companies, which are increasingly shaping the way Americans live and work, are potentially missing out on crucial diversity when it comes to who is helping them come up with new ideas and make decisions.
As Mark Muro, senior fellow of the Metropolitan Policy Program at Brookings, put it, “Power and command control decisions are becoming more and more centralized.”
The rest of the country also misses out on the economic windfall created by these companies. That includes not only the high-paying jobs at those companies but also spending from those new workers, as well as the secondary benefits of industries and public works catered to them.
“Most of the country is not truly getting the economic lift that they might if this were a better-distributed industry,” Muro told Recode. “Relatively few Americans are able to plug into the most dynamic industry of our time.”
Tech jobs are consolidating in fewer areas due in part to the nature of tech, which feeds off of network effects more than many other industries. Tech companies require big pools of tech workers, as well as other nearby tech companies, to support their operations. Over time, these cities become bastions of tech companies and workers, which in turn encourage the growth of other tech infrastructure, like fast broadband internet, public transit, and a higher quality of living. Over time, despite increasingly high costs of living, the pull of these cities for new jobs and new residents has gotten stronger, not weaker.
This research expands on previous work Brookings published late last year, when the think tank looked more broadly at the innovation sector, which also included a number of hardware and aerospace industries. At the time, they found that 90 percent of growth in innovation sector jobs happened in just five metro areas: Boston, the San Francisco Bay Area, San Jose, Seattle, and San Diego.


vox--2020-03-03--Super Tuesday: Live results

Super Tuesday: Live results

Super Tuesday is the biggest voting day in the Democratic nomination process , and the results in its 15 contests — which you can follow below — will be enormously consequential in shaping the field going forward .
With the results in the four early states in the books , the Democratic contest is now primarily about one thing : the delegate count .
And that count will be dramatically transformed by Super Tuesday .
Just 155 delegates ( 4 percent of the total ) were allocated in the early states , but 1,344 delegates ( 34 percent of the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in this day ’ s contests .
The day ’ s primary and caucus lineup includes the two most populous states in the country ( California and Texas ) , six other Southern states ( North Carolina , Virginia , Tennessee , Oklahoma , Alabama , Arkansas ) , a New England trio ( Massachusetts , Maine , Vermont ) , two in the West ( Colorado and Utah ) , Minnesota , and American Samoa .
However , not all of these ballots will be cast on Super Tuesday itself — several @ @ @ @ @ @ @ mail balloting weeks ago .
All these contests provide an opportunity for Sen. Bernie Sanders — the current leader in national polls — to lock in a large delegate lead .
But they also provide an opportunity for some other candidate to break away from the pack and become the clear alternative to Sanders — or even to take the lead , if there ’ s a late swing of sufficient magnitude .
Given the results in South Carolina on Saturday , former Vice President Joe Biden now appears to have the best @ @ @ @ @ @ @ page , we ’ ll display the latest vote totals in each contest , courtesy of our friends at Decision Desk ( click on a state on the map to see that state ’ s results ) .
But it ’ s important to keep in mind that these aren ’ t ordinary elections , where winning by 1 point has the same outcome as winning by 20 points .
Democrats allot their delegates proportionally — so overall , big wins are more valuable to candidates than narrow wins .
The American Samoa @ @ @ @ @ @ @ these results you should look at how much of the overall vote each candidate gets , and how much the first-place person is winning by .
Another crucial number is 15 percent : the minimum threshold for a candidate to get delegates ( in a state or congressional district ) .
If several candidates hit 15 percent , the delegates will split among them ; if two or even just one candidate tops 15 percent , they ’ ll get a comparative bonanza .
It will all take some time before the results @ @ @ @ @ @ @ settle the delegate count .
But , broadly , we ’ ll likely get a sense of how the night is going early — whether one candidate is running away with victories across the board , or whether there ’ s more of a muddled , mixed outcome .
We ’ ll know who won most states well before we come close to knowing how the delegate count will shake out , so we ’ ll post that information below once states are called .
These are the states ( and one territory @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to think about the Super Tuesday states We can think of the states with contests on Super Tuesday in three different groups .
First , in a group by itself , is California .
The most populous state in the country also has the most delegates of any state , with about one-third of Super Tuesday ’ s total .
So the question of which candidates meet the 15 percent threshold to get some of California ’ s statewide delegates — and which miss it and get none — will be an important @ @ @ @ @ @ @ also important to keep in mind that in California ( and every other state ) , nearly two-thirds of delegates at stake are allotted based on the results in individual congressional districts .
So candidates can miss the threshold for statewide delegates , but meet it in various congressional districts , and vice versa .
In any case , the vote tally in California is expected to be quite slow — so while we might know who wins quickly ( if there ’ s a lopsided result ) , the delegate split won @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Second , Super Tuesday ’ s map is skewed toward the South — seven Southern states are holding contests , and together they have nearly half of the delegates at stake that day .
The most notable one is Texas ( the second most populous state in the country ) , but the other states there will test Sanders ’ s appeal in a region where he struggled in 2016 .
Third , there ’ s the rest — a trio of New England states , Colorado and Utah from the West @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Together , all these combine for a little less than a quarter of Super Tuesday ’ s delegates — the smallest of these batches .
So Super Tuesday is mostly about California and Southern states , with these other contests in for some variety .
What to look for in the Super Tuesday results Obviously , if a candidate is winning in a lot of big states , they ’ re generally in a good place on Super Tuesday .
But beyond that , the devil ’ s in the details .
Democrats @ @ @ @ @ @ @ statewide results and the results in hundreds of individual districts .
( Most states use congressional districts , but Texas uses state Senate districts . )
It ’ s important to remember that the minimum threshold to get delegates somewhere — whether it be in a state or a congressional district — is 15 percent .
If you fall below that , you get zero delegates there .
Getting zeroed out in a lot of places is terrible for a candidate ’ s hopes of cobbling together a majority of delegates .
Think @ @ @ @ @ @ @ get zero delegates somewhere , you need to get 100 percent of the delegates in a contest of the same size to get back on track for 50 percent of overall delegates .
And winning 100 percent of delegates somewhere is very difficult under proportional rules .
The crowded field also can present huge opportunities for candidates in certain places if they can be the only candidate to top 15 percent of the vote , or the clear leader out of just two candidates who achieve that .
So beyond just winning states @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a crowded field on Super Tuesday should be to maximize their delegate haul by topping 15 percent by as much as possible , in as many states and congressional districts as possible — and hope most or all of their opponents often fall short of that threshold .
The four scenarios for the Super Tuesday outcome The shape of the race after Super Tuesday depends not only on how Bernie Sanders and Joe Biden do in the delegate count — but also on how Mike Bloomberg and Elizabeth Warren perform .
We can @ @ @ @ @ @ @ four broad scenarios .
1 ) One candidate emerges with a large delegate lead and on track for the majority : If one candidate gets 50 percent or more of the delegates allotted on Super Tuesday and a large lead over anyone else , that person would become a strong favorite to win the nomination .
Current polling suggests this is a possibility for Sanders , with it most likely to happen if most or all of his rivals fall under 15 percent in California .
2 ) Two candidates split almost all @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Biden has surged after South Carolina and ends up being competitive with Sanders — and other candidates like Bloomberg and Warren end up getting very few delegates — this would likely mean a two-person race going forward , with the outcome up in the air ( similar to the Democratic contests in 2008 and 2016 ) .
Such a race would , however , likely be settled before the convention : when two candidates split nearly all the delegates , one person is very likely to end up with the majority or quite @ @ @ @ @ @ @ or more candidates split delegates and one takes a large plurality lead : Alternatively , it is possible that there will be a clear “ winner ” on Super Tuesday who is also not on track to win a delegate majority — because delegates have been split among three or more candidates .
This is a tricky scenario .
Whoever ’ s in first would be the favorite to get the nomination eventually , but one or more of their rivals will likely continue campaigning to try and deprive them of the necessary @ @ @ @ @ @ @ convention .
Sanders ( anticipating he could be in this position ) has argued that delegates should just give the nomination to whichever candidate finishes with a plurality of delegates , but the rules do not require this .
4 ) Three or more candidates split delegates and no one leads by much : A split of delegates among several candidates could also result in a very tight outcome where everyone is far off track from getting a majority .
This would be the messiest , most muddled scenario , and the one @ @ @ @ @ @ @ likely .
But if late-deciding Democrats view Sanders and Biden are their two plausible choices — and Bloomberg and Warren regularly fail to hit 15 percent — this outcome would be averted .
Overall , then , Super Tuesday ’ s outcome is highly contingent not just on who “ wins ” states , but on how many of the major candidates remaining manage to clear 15 percent to haul in delegates .
And we won ’ t know what sort of a contest we ’ re looking at going forward until we @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
With California epically slow to count votes , that could take some time .

Super Tuesday is the biggest voting day in the Democratic nomination process, and the results in its 15 contests — which you can follow below — will be enormously consequential in shaping the field going forward.
With the results in the four early states in the books, the Democratic contest is now primarily about one thing: the delegate count. And that count was dramatically transformed by Super Tuesday. Just 155 delegates (4 percent of the total) were allocated in the early states, but 1,344 delegates (34 percent of the total) were up for grabs in the Super Tuesday contests.
The day’s primary and caucus lineup includes the two most populous states in the country (California and Texas), six other Southern states (North Carolina, Virginia, Tennessee, Oklahoma, Alabama, Arkansas), a New England trio (Massachusetts, Maine, Vermont), two in the West (Colorado and Utah), Minnesota, and American Samoa. However, not all of these ballots were cast on Super Tuesday itself — several of these states began early voting or mail balloting weeks ago.
All these contests provided an opportunity for Sen. Bernie Sanders — the current leader in national polls — to lock in a large delegate lead. But they also provided an opportunity for another candidate to break away from the pack and become the clear alternative to Sanders — or even to take the lead, if there’s a late swing of sufficient magnitude. Given the results so far, former Vice President Joe Biden appears to have a good chance of doing so.
On this page, we’ll display the latest vote totals in each contest, courtesy of our friends at Decision Desk (click on a state on the map to see that state’s results). But it’s important to keep in mind that these aren’t ordinary elections, where winning by 1 point has the same outcome as winning by 20 points. Democrats allot their delegates proportionally — so overall, big wins are more valuable to candidates than narrow wins. You can see delegate totals here.
The American Samoa caucus results are reported below:
In these results you should look at how much of the overall vote each candidate gets, and how much the first-place person is winning by. Another crucial number is 15 percent: the minimum threshold for a candidate to get delegates (in a state or congressional district). If several candidates hit 15 percent, the delegates will split among them; if two or even just one candidate tops 15 percent, they’ll get a comparative bonanza.
It will all take some time before the results are nailed down with specificity enough to settle the delegate count. But, broadly, we’ll likely get a sense of who the delegates are going to early on — whether one candidate is running away with victories across the board, or whether there’s more of a muddled, mixed outcome.
The quick results, state by state
We’ll know who won most states well before we come close to knowing how the delegate count will shake out, so we’ll post that information below once states are called. These are the states (and one territory) holding their nomination contests:
California (415 delegates)
Texas (228 delegates) — Winner: Biden
North Carolina (110 delegates) — Winner: Biden
Virginia (99 delegates) — Winner: Biden
Massachusetts (91 delegates) — Winner: Biden
Minnesota (75 delegates) — Winner: Biden
Colorado (67 delegates) — Winner: Sanders
Tennessee (64 delegates) — Winner: Biden
Alabama (52 delegates) — Winner: Biden
Oklahoma (37 delegates) — Winner: Biden
Arkansas (31 delegates) — Winner: Biden
Utah (29 delegates) — Winner: Sanders
Maine (24 delegates) — Winner: Biden
Vermont (16 delegates) — Winner: Sanders
American Samoa (6 delegates) — Winner: Bloomberg
How to think about the Super Tuesday states
We can think of the states with contests on Super Tuesday in three different groups.
First, in a group by itself, is California. The most populous state in the country also has the most delegates of any state, with about one-third of Super Tuesday’s total. So the question of which candidates meet the 15 percent threshold to get some of California’s statewide delegates — and which miss it and get none — will be an important one.
However, it’s also important to keep in mind that in California (and every other state), nearly two-thirds of delegates at stake are allotted based on the results in individual congressional districts. So candidates can miss the threshold for statewide delegates, but meet it in various congressional districts, and vice versa. In any case, the vote tally in California is expected to be quite slow — so while we might know who wins quickly (if there’s a lopsided result), the delegate split won’t be finalized for some time.
Second, Super Tuesday’s map is skewed toward the South — seven Southern states are holding contests, and together they have nearly half of the delegates at stake that day. The most notable one is Texas (the second most populous state in the country), but the other states there will test Sanders’s appeal in a region where he struggled in 2016.
Third, there’s the rest — a trio of New England states, Colorado and Utah from the West, Minnesota, and American Samoa. Together, all these combine for a little less than a quarter of Super Tuesday’s delegates — the smallest of these batches. So Super Tuesday is mostly about California and Southern states, with these other contests in for some variety.
What to look for in the Super Tuesday results
Obviously, if a candidate is winning in a lot of big states, they’re generally in a good place on Super Tuesday.
But beyond that, the devil’s in the details. Democrats allot their delegates proportionally based both on statewide results and the results in hundreds of individual districts. (Most states use congressional districts, but Texas uses state Senate districts.)
It’s important to remember that the minimum threshold to get delegates somewhere — whether it be in a state or a congressional district — is 15 percent. If you fall below that, you get zero delegates there.
Getting zeroed out in a lot of places is terrible for a candidate’s hopes of cobbling together a majority of delegates. Think of it this way — if you get zero delegates somewhere, you need to get 100 percent of the delegates in a contest of the same size to get back on track for 50 percent of overall delegates. And winning 100 percent of delegates somewhere is very difficult under proportional rules.
The crowded field also can present huge opportunities for candidates in certain places if they can be the only candidate to top 15 percent of the vote, or the clear leader out of just two candidates who achieve that.
So beyond just winning states, a candidate’s goal in a crowded field on Super Tuesday should be to maximize their delegate haul by topping 15 percent by as much as possible, in as many states and congressional districts as possible — and hope most or all of their opponents often fall short of that threshold.
The four scenarios for the Super Tuesday outcome
The shape of the race after Super Tuesday depends not only on how Bernie Sanders and Joe Biden do in the delegate count — but also on how Mike Bloomberg and Elizabeth Warren perform. We can think of the possibilities in terms of four broad scenarios.
1) One candidate emerges with a large delegate lead and on track for the majority: If one candidate gets 50 percent or more of the delegates allotted on Super Tuesday and a large lead over anyone else, that person would become a strong favorite to win the nomination. Current polling suggests this is a possibility for Sanders, with it most likely to happen if most or all of his rivals fall under 15 percent in California.
2) Two candidates split almost all the delegates: If, say, Biden has surged after South Carolina and ends up being competitive with Sanders — and other candidates like Bloomberg and Warren end up getting very few delegates — this would likely mean a two-person race going forward, with the outcome up in the air (similar to the Democratic contests in 2008 and 2016). Such a race would, however, likely be settled before the convention: when two candidates split nearly all the delegates, one person is very likely to end up with the majority or quite close to it.
3) Three or more candidates split delegates and one takes a large plurality lead: Alternatively, it is possible that there will be a clear “winner” on Super Tuesday who is also not on track to win a delegate majority — because delegates have been split among three or more candidates. This is a tricky scenario. Whoever’s in first would be the favorite to get the nomination eventually, but one or more of their rivals will likely continue campaigning to try and deprive them of the necessary majority and make things interesting at the convention. Sanders (anticipating he could be in this position) has argued that delegates should just give the nomination to whichever candidate finishes with a plurality of delegates, but the rules do not require this.
4) Three or more candidates split delegates and no one leads by much: A split of delegates among several candidates could also result in a very tight outcome where everyone is far off track from getting a majority. This would be the messiest, most muddled scenario, and the one where a contested convention would be most likely. But if late-deciding Democrats view Sanders and Biden as their two plausible choices — and Bloomberg and Warren regularly fail to hit 15 percent — this outcome would be averted.
Overall, then, Super Tuesday’s outcome is highly contingent not just on who “wins” states, but on how many of the major candidates remaining manage to clear 15 percent to haul in delegates. And we won’t know what sort of a contest we’re looking at going forward until we see how the vote totals shake out. With California epically slow to count votes, that could take some time.


vox--2020-03-03--Joe Biden wins the Virginia primary

Joe Biden wins the Virginia primary

Former Vice President Joe Biden has won the Virginia Democratic primary , helping to breathe new life into a once-frontrunning campaign that had fallen into trouble nationwide .
Polling in Virginia has been very scarce , but the most recent numbers pointed to a big Biden lead .
The result , consequently , isn ’ t a huge shock .
But it is evidence that Biden got a bump from his performance in South Carolina and is now back in position to seriously challenge Sanders for the nomination .
Virginia has 99 delegates at stake , making it a significantly @ @ @ @ @ @ @ early states that have already voted .
Only 34 of those delegates are allocated based on statewide results , with the rest being allocated on a district-by-district basis .
The scope of Biden ’ s victory won ’ t be clear until a more detailed count of the vote is available .
Virginia ’ s demographics are reasonably favorable to Biden .
Like other Southern states , Virginia has a larger-than-average black population — about 20 percent of the total , and more than that of the Democratic Party .
This has been @ @ @ @ @ @ @ campaign and should have given him a good shot here .
But Virginia is also home to a huge number of wealthy , educated suburbanites in the counties surrounding Washington , DC .
The rapid growth of these suburbs combined with the education-correlated polarization of America ’ s white electorate has rapidly transformed Virginia from a solidly red state as recently as 2004 to a place Republicans would only carry in a big landslide .
But highly educated places have often shown interest in the array of second-tier candidates who ’ ve been @ @ @ @ @ @ @ anti-Sanders ” lane in the primary .
On Super Tuesday , Biden seems to have done well enough in the suburbs — and perhaps took advantage of the fading of the Bloomberg boomlet — to put himself over the top .

Former Vice President Joe Biden has won the Virginia Democratic primary, helping to breathe new life into a once-frontrunning campaign that had fallen into trouble nationwide.
Polling in Virginia has been very scarce, but the most recent numbers pointed to a big Biden lead. The result, consequently, isn’t a huge shock. But it is evidence that Biden got a bump from his performance in South Carolina and is now back in position to seriously challenge Sanders for the nomination.
Virginia has 99 delegates at stake, making it a significantly bigger prize than any of the four early states that have already voted.
Only 34 of those delegates are allocated based on statewide results, with the rest being allocated on a district-by-district basis. The scope of Biden’s victory won’t be clear until a more detailed count of the vote is available.
Virginia’s demographics are reasonably favorable to Biden. Like other Southern states, Virginia has a larger-than-average black population — about 20 percent of the total, and more than that of the Democratic Party. This has been Biden’s base throughout the 2020 campaign and should have given him a good shot here. But Virginia is also home to a huge number of wealthy, educated suburbanites in the counties surrounding Washington, DC.
The rapid growth of these suburbs combined with the education-correlated polarization of America’s white electorate has rapidly transformed Virginia from a solidly red state as recently as 2004 to a place Republicans would only carry in a big landslide.
But highly educated places have often shown interest in the array of second-tier candidates who’ve been making it impossible to consolidate an “anti-Sanders” lane in the primary. On Super Tuesday, Biden seems to have done well enough in the suburbs — and perhaps took advantage of the fading of the Bloomberg boomlet — to put himself over the top.


vox--2020-03-03--Bernie Sanders dominates in his home state of Vermont

Sen. Bernie Sanders just pulled off his least surprising victory of the 2020 primary : He won his home state of Vermont .
The state is one of the 15 states and territories to hold their primaries on Super Tuesday , and there was never any real doubt it would go to anyone but Sanders .
The FiveThirtyEight polling average for Vermont showed him leading the field with 53 percent support ; his nearest challenger , Sen. Elizabeth Warren , was almost 40 points back with 14.2 percent .
True to the polls , Warren , Sanders ’ s progressive @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , but it was only ever a race for the minor placings behind Sanders .
The longtime Vermont senator also defeated former Vice President Joe Biden , billionaire Mike Bloomberg , and Rep. Tulsi Gabbard .
Polls closed in the state at 7 pm ET , and while not all the results have been reported , the only question now is how many delegates to the Democratic National Convention Sanders will receive .
Vermont has 16 on offer , and Sanders is certain to claim at least the majority of them .
In @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Hillary Clinton by more than 70 points in Vermont and won all 16 delegates .
The win comes as Sanders looks to solidify his claim as frontrunner for the Democratic nomination with a strong Super Tuesday performance .
Delegate-rich California and Texas , which also vote on Super Tuesday , are particular targets : Sanders leads the FiveThirtyEight polling average in both states .
If he does well in those places and across the rest of the Super Tuesday map , he could be on track to amass an insurmountable plurality of delegates @ @ @ @ @ @ @ well , though , it could give Biden — whose candidacy was rejuvenated by a commanding win in South Carolina — a path to reclaim the mantle of frontrunner .
Sanders returned to Vermont on Tuesday to cast a vote himself ( presumably also for himself ) and to hold a campaign rally .
While candidates winning their home states is frequently seen as a foregone conclusion , it ’ s not guaranteed — Sanders himself is pressing 2020 rival Warren in her home state of Massachusetts , which will vote on Super @ @ @ @ @ @ @ leading Warren in the FiveThirtyEight polling average for Massachusetts by better than 5 points .
Sanders , 78 , has been a singular figure in Vermont politics for well over 40 years now , with a long track record of electoral success in the state , despite a rocky start .
He began his career with a failed run for the US Senate in 1972 before serving as the mayor of Burlington from 1981 to 1989 .
He was elected to the US House of Representatives in 1990 and served there for 16 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 2006 .
Now , Sanders has a real shot at winning the Democratic nomination for president .

Sen. Bernie Sanders just pulled off his least surprising victory of the 2020 primary: He won his home state of Vermont.
The state is one of the 15 states and territories to hold their primaries on Super Tuesday, and there was never any real doubt it would go to anyone but Sanders. The FiveThirtyEight polling average for Vermont showed him leading the field with 53 percent support; his nearest challenger, Sen. Elizabeth Warren, was almost 40 points back with 14.2 percent.
Polls closed in the state at 7 pm ET, and while not all the results have been reported, the only question now is how many delegates to the Democratic National Convention Sanders will receive. Vermont has 16 on offer, and Sanders is certain to claim at least the majority of them.
In 2016, Sanders defeated eventual Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton by more than 70 points in Vermont and won all 16 delegates.
The win comes as Sanders looks to solidify his claim as frontrunner for the Democratic nomination with a strong Super Tuesday performance. Delegate-rich California and Texas, which also vote on Super Tuesday, are particular targets: Sanders leads the FiveThirtyEight polling average in both states.
If he does well in those places and across the rest of the Super Tuesday map, he could be on track to amass an insurmountable plurality of delegates. If he doesn’t do well, though, it could give Biden — whose candidacy was rejuvenated by a commanding win in South Carolina — a path to reclaim the mantle of frontrunner.
Sanders returned to Vermont on Tuesday to cast a vote himself (presumably also for himself) and to hold a campaign rally.
While candidates winning their home states is frequently seen as a foregone conclusion, it’s not guaranteed — Sanders himself is pressing 2020 rival Warren in her home state of Massachusetts, which will vote on Super Tuesday. The Vermont senator is currently leading Warren in the FiveThirtyEight polling average for Massachusetts by better than 5 points.
Sanders, 78, has been a singular figure in Vermont politics for well over 40 years now, with a long track record of electoral success in the state, despite a rocky start. He began his career with a failed run for the US Senate in 1972 before serving as the mayor of Burlington from 1981 to 1989. He was elected to the US House of Representatives in 1990 and served there for 16 years before winning a Senate seat in 2006.
Now, Sanders has a real shot at winning the Democratic nomination for president.