vox--2020-10-29--How the press calls elections, explained

On Tuesday , November 3 , we will start getting results for the crucial presidential , Senate , House , gubernatorial , and other elections taking place throughout the country .
We won ’ t have full results that night , but the media will still probably be able to tell you who won a few ( if not many ) of them , due to the subtle but important art of election calling .
For decades now , news agencies like the Associated Press and broadcast services like NBC News and CNN have been projecting presidential election winners on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ votes are in .
It ’ s an important service that greatly speeds up our knowledge of who ’ s won what , without having to wait for the final tally from state authorities , which in some cases can take a while to count .
Their track record for accuracy has been excellent , but in the rare cases it goes wrong , it can go very wrong — as in 2000 , where every major service called Florida for Al Gore early on , only for it to become clear the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ could be especially tricky for election callers because of the unprecedented number of mail-in/absentee ballots , owing to the practice ’ s vast expansion during the Covid-19 pandemic .
Furthermore , President Trump and his allies have pushed aggressively for networks to call the election the night of , dubiously portraying late-arriving votes as fraudulent when they should count just like every other vote .
All these factors mean additional pressure on networks to call early .
The news outlets , however , emphasize that the “ decision desks ” making calls at @ @ @ @ @ @ @ professionals , often PhDs in political science or related fields , who are well-insulated from the more opinionated sides of their news operations .
For instance , Arnon Mishkin , Fox News ’ s decision desk leader , is known as a straight shooter by observers across the political spectrum , not beholden to the right-wing figures at his network .
“ He ’ s good .
He ’ s been doing this a long time , ” Scott Tranter , who is running the race calls team at Decision Desk HQ , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ race call data , told me .
“ He — how do I put this — he could give a fuck what Sean Hannity says at 8 pm .
And that ’ s good , and Fox still hires him for it.
” The decision desks at other networks are similarly professionally staffed , apart from any anchor interference .
If you don ’ t like Tucker Carlson or Rachel Maddow or Wolf Blitzer , don ’ t worry , they ’ re not making the calls .
Vox is doing election calls @ @ @ @ @ @ @ help of Tranter and the team at Decision Desk HQ .
They provide trustworthy , timely information to contracting media firms ; besides Vox , their clients have included BuzzFeed , the Economist , the Atlantic , HuffPost , FiveThirtyEight , Axios , Reuters , and Business Insider .
They ’ re good , in other words .
Here ’ s how their election-calling procedure , and that of their rivals at the AP and on various TV networks , works .
Arguably the most famous , and perhaps the most labor-intensive , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Press .
Per the AP , it will employ more than 4,000 stringers ( freelance reporters hired for this assignment specifically ) and send them to county election centers , where they ’ ll call in raw vote totals to AP ’ s decision desk as they come in .
Some 800 vote-entry clerks will screen the data for abnormalities and then enter it into software that also raises flags if the numbers look “ inconsistent or statistically unlikely.
” “ AP ’ s race callers are staff who are deeply familiar with @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Most have called races in a state for many years , ” the agency explains .
The calls they make depend heavily on incoming vote totals being reported from counties , analyzed in conjunction with knowledge of how those counties typically vote , their demographics compared to those of the state as a whole , etc .
Arguably the most famous , and perhaps the most labor-intensive , election-calling operation is run by the Associated Press .
But sometimes the AP and other news agencies make calls as soon as the polls close @ @ @ @ @ @ @ relied heavily on exit polls to make those projections .
The AP has moved away from exit polling in favor of a system it calls AP VoteCast , which is “ expected to complete about 140,000 interviews with registered voters between Oct. 28 and Nov. 3 , concluding as polls close on Election Day.
” Conducted with the National Opinion Research Council ( NORC ) , which also runs the highly regarded General Social Survey , AP VoteCast is meant to replace exit polls with an alternative method that accounts for the large @ @ @ @ @ @ @ day , either in early voting or via absentee/mail .
( Fox News will also use AP VoteCast , but calls it “ Fox News Voter Analysis.
” ) Either way , exit polls/VoteCast can make it possible to call easy , not-close races early .
Take , for instance , the Senate election in Rhode Island in 2020 .
Jack Reed , the Democratic incumbent , has won each of his past three reelection battles with over 70 percent of the vote .
If AP VoteCast ’ s polling suggests this time @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s very reasonable for the AP to call the election for Reed shortly after polls close .
Decision Desk HQ , Vox ’ s partner , calls these “ insta-calls , ” and relies on a house-made forecasting model to make them rather than exit polls or a VoteCast-style poll .
Tranter explained that the forecast model uses public polling but also economic data , demographics , turnout estimates , and so on .
The race call team will also rely on private polls it is conducting in North Carolina , Georgia , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the field .
They ’ re doing a high-sample survey in Florida , for instance , which Tranter says , “ will inform us on how to think about those early vote returns at 8 pm.
” ABC News , CBS News , CNN , and NBC News have a different method on election night .
They rely on a partnership called the National Election Pool , which provides exit polling and other data to the member organizations .
( Fox News and AP used to be a part of it but left @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ) NBC News explains that NEP will have about 4,000 staffers in 2020 , both for exit polling and for collecting county- and precinct-level votes ( which AP used to do for all these groups before it left the pool ) .
Like AP , NBC claims , “ Vote results are rigorously checked and verified .
Part of quality control involves checking that vote data is consistent across sources , and we also compare the vote to past election results to see whether the turnout looks extremely different across multiple past races.
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ on that vote and exit poll data to make its projections , its projections are independent of the NEP itself and made for NBC alone .
Other NEP members like CNN have explained their process similarly .
Once there ’ s raw vote data to look at , Jennifer Agiesta , CNN ’ s director of polling and election analytics , says , “ we ’ re looking at how much we know about all the different types of vote that are out there , where in the state those votes have come @ @ @ @ @ @ @ we know about votes there in the past , and what we know about what ’ s left to count.
” The unusually high level of absentee voting/vote-by-mail in 2020 , amid the Covid-19 pandemic , could complicate calling efforts .
To get a sense of what the vote that ’ s in at , say , 8:30 pm means , you have to have a sense of how many people voted in person that day versus by mail , how much of the initial vote total is by mail versus in person @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , how in-person versus by-mail voters lean in key races , and so forth .
With voting methods changing dramatically this year , that all could be harder to predict .
“ If a state is somewhat slower to count its mail-in ballots , which we find often does happen , then we need to adjust our race calling to make sure that we have an accurate view of all the outstanding votes before we call a race , ” Sally Buzbee , a senior vice president at the AP who runs their @ @ @ @ @ @ @ event of election-calling experts .
CNN ’ s Agiesta agreed with that sentiment , saying , “ the amount of vote left to count is critical , and may be a more difficult piece of information to track down in 2020 , ” because of vote-by-mail and “ the decreased value in knowing the number of precincts reporting .
There are fewer people voting on Election Day in most places and some states are consolidating precincts , so comparisons of the number of people voting in a particular precinct now to the past @ @ @ @ @ @ @ be harder to get a good read on Election Day turnout before a county or town is fully reported.
” The result might be more cautious network calls this year than in the past .
But even the presidential election not being called until the next day would not be unprecedented .
In 2000 , of course , the process was slow , but in 2004 as well , networks declined to call the election for George W. Bush until Wednesday morning .
Vox has worked with Decision Desk since 2017 .
Here @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Officials responsible for reporting elections generally report them on a public website .
But if you ’ ve ever tried to access one of these sites , you ’ ve probably noticed they are mostly terrible .
They often do not post the most useful information front and center — like where to vote and election results .
They also aren ’ t necessarily easy to find through a Google search .
This is where firms like Decision Desk come in .
Media outlets pay them to do the extra work necessary to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ an API , or application programming interface , that essentially allows the firm to get the information at the same time as it ’ s published on those state and county websites , provided by election officials .
It also scrapes information directly from other public sites .
And it uses old-fashioned methods , like phone calls and faxes , though to a far lesser extent than the AP does , to communicate with county officials .
The result , it argues , is a data collection operation that ’ s much faster @ @ @ @ @ @ @ turn translates into faster race calls .
Tranter explains that ultimately , for both his team at Decision Desk HQ and other call teams , calling elections is an algebra problem .
The equation is super-simple : Each candidate ’ s votes ( vote-by-mail plus early voting in person plus Election Day ) summed equal total turnout : Going into the night , the teams have a decent sense of how many people have voted by mail and in person , and might be able to use polling to figure out whom those @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s turnout models provide an estimate of total turnout .
But the rest is in flux throughout the night .
“ The key variable in all this as tabulation nears completion is , how many votes are left ?
” Tranter says .
“ If you know how many votes are left you can determine if there are enough votes to move a second-place candidate into first place , and if there is not , then you can assume the current vote leader will win.
” On Tranter ’ s team , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ All three race call team members assigned to a particular race have to agree that it ’ s impossible for the trailing candidate to make up the difference in order to call that race .
Is it possible they ’ ll miscall some races ?
Sure : They expect to call 500 to 600 close races on election night , and even a team with 99.8 percent accuracy would miss a race in that situation .
But so far , Decision Desk has had a strong track record .
It ’ s only @ @ @ @ @ @ @ election call since it started offering its services to clients like Vox , which was in California ’ s 21st Congressional District , where Republican David Valadao lost to Democrat TJ Cox in 2018 .
It was an extraordinarily close race , and though at first it looked like Valadao had a lead that wouldn ’ t be affected by mail-in ballots , it ultimately flipped on the last mail-in ballots .
On this , Decision Desk wasn ’ t alone .
The Associated Press had to recall that election too , plus @ @ @ @ @ @ @ didn ’ t erroneously call .
Decision Desk also made one incorrect projection in the 2020 primaries , predicting that Rep. Lacy Clay ( D-MO ) would win his primary when challenger Cori Bush beat him in an upset .
“ The challenge we had in that race was an unexpected split between the early mail-in votes and the day-of vote , ” Tranter says .
“ While that has been expected in the general election , we had not until that point seen such a drastic split within a Democratic primary challenge @ @ @ @ @ @ @ so strongly to Bush , it became clear she would win and that our call for Clay had to be publicly withdrawn.
” But DDHQ called the vast majority of races correctly , and the AP has had two retractions in Georgia ’ s congressional primaries this year , putting DDHQ still ahead by a bit in terms of accuracy .
DDHQ is often quite fast , relative to competitors .
It beat its main competitor , AP , by 47 minutes in New Hampshire and by 15 minutes in Nevada , and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ South Carolina .
In short , you can trust Decision Desk HQ .
You can also trust its competitors like AP , NBC News , ABC News , Fox News , and so forth .
We picked DDHQ because we think they ’ re the best , but no one is running a shoddy operation here .
The key , though , is patience .
Part of being a good race caller is declining to call races when there ’ s legitimate uncertainty .
That means you might not get definitive answers as @ @ @ @ @ @ @ night , or even election week .
Be patient , and we ’ ll all figure this out together .
Will you help keep Vox free for all ?
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Editor’s note, November 8, 2022: This story was originally published in 2020 and has not been updated. For a more up-to-date explanation of how the press calls races, see our recent story.
On the morning of Friday, November 6, three days after Election Day, Decision Desk HQ called the presidential race for former Vice President Joe Biden. They were the first to make the call, even as states around the country continue to count votes.
Decision Desk is relatively new, but they join news agencies like the Associated Press and broadcast services like NBC News and CNN in projecting presidential election winners on a state-by-state basis, before all the votes are in. It’s an important service that greatly speeds up our knowledge of who’s won what, without having to wait for the final tally from state authorities, which in some cases can take a while to count. All of these outlets have an excellent track record for accuracy, but in the rare cases it goes wrong, it can go very wrong — as in 2000, where every major service called Florida for Al Gore early on, only for it to become clear the race was a squeaker.
Joe Biden is projected to win the #2020Election, per Decision Desk.
He will enter the White House with the most experience in public service of any chief executive in US history and will replace a president with no prior public service. https://t.co/xTByN8Ie0n pic.twitter.com/R2BVXWlDca — Vox (@voxdotcom) November 6, 2020
The reason the calls have dragged out this year is because of the unprecedented number of mail-in/absentee ballots, owing to the practice’s vast expansion during the Covid-19 pandemic. Furthermore, President Trump and his allies have pushed aggressively for networks to call the election the night of, dubiously portraying late-arriving votes as fraudulent when they should count just like every other vote.
The news outlets, however, emphasize that the “decision desks” making calls at networks and the AP are staffed by professionals, often PhDs in political science or related fields, who are well-insulated from the more opinionated sides of their news operations.
For instance, Arnon Mishkin, Fox News’s decision desk leader, is known as a straight shooter by observers across the political spectrum, not beholden to the right-wing figures at his network. Fox News aggressively called Arizona for Biden on election night, and the AP later joined them but the days since Biden has seen his lead shrink considerably. Other outlets have not yet called Arizona.
“He’s good. He’s been doing this a long time,” Scott Tranter, who is running the race calls team at Decision Desk HQ, a private company providing vote tabulation and race call data, told me. “He — how do I put this — he could give a fuck what Sean Hannity says at 8 pm. And that’s good, and Fox still hires him for it.”
This week’s Power Player is the Director of the Fox News Decision Desk and the man in charge of calling winners & losers on election night. Don’t miss it! @arnonmishkin #FoxNewsSunday pic.twitter.com/vpu91sbmwe — FoxNewsSunday (@FoxNewsSunday) November 1, 2020
The decision desks at other networks are similarly professionally staffed, apart from any anchor interference. If you don’t like Tucker Carlson or Rachel Maddow or Wolf Blitzer, don’t worry, they’re not making the calls.
Vox has been doing election calls this year, too, with the help of Tranter and the team at Decision Desk HQ. They provide trustworthy, timely information to contracting media firms; besides Vox, their clients have included BuzzFeed, the Economist, the Atlantic, HuffPost, FiveThirtyEight, Axios, Reuters, and Business Insider. They’re good, in other words. Here’s how their election-calling procedure, and that of their rivals at the AP and on various TV networks, works.
Election calling, explained
Arguably the most famous, and perhaps the most labor-intensive, election-calling operation is run by the Associated Press. Per the AP, it employs more than 4,000 stringers (freelance reporters hired for this assignment specifically) and sends them to county election centers, where they call in raw vote totals to AP’s decision desk as they come in. Some 800 vote-entry clerks screen the data for abnormalities and then enter it into software that also raises flags if the numbers look “inconsistent or statistically unlikely.”
“AP’s race callers are staff who are deeply familiar with the states where they declare winners. Most have called races in a state for many years,” the agency explains. The calls they make depend heavily on incoming vote totals being reported from counties, analyzed in conjunction with knowledge of how those counties typically vote, their demographics compared to those of the state as a whole, etc.
But sometimes the AP and other news agencies make calls as soon as the polls close. In the past, agencies have relied heavily on exit polls to make those projections. The AP has moved away from exit polling in favor of a system it calls AP VoteCast, which “expected to complete about 140,000 interviews with registered voters between Oct. 28 and Nov. 3, concluding as polls close on Election Day.”
Conducted with the NORC at the University of Chicago, which also runs the highly regarded General Social Survey, AP VoteCast is meant to replace exit polls with an alternative method that accounts for the large chunk of voters who vote before Election Day, either in early voting or via absentee/mail. (Fox News will also use AP VoteCast, but calls it “Fox News Voter Analysis.”) Either way, exit polls/VoteCast can make it possible to call easy, not-close races early.
Decision Desk HQ, Vox’s partner, calls these “insta-calls,” and relies on a house-made forecasting model to make them rather than exit polls or a VoteCast-style poll. Tranter explained that the forecast model uses public polling but also economic data, demographics, turnout estimates, and so on.
The race call team also relied on private polls it conducted in North Carolina, Georgia, Florida, and elsewhere DDHQ is in the field. They also did a high-sample survey in Florida, for instance, which Tranter says, to give them a sense of “how to think about those early vote returns at 8 pm.”
PA Presidential Election Results - Called for Biden (D)
Biden (D): 49.48% (3,297,553 votes)
Trump (R): 49.29% (3,290,989 votes)
Biden Margin: 6,564
Estimated: > 95% votes in
More results here: https://t.co/BgcQsEyt3j — Decision Desk HQ (@DecisionDeskHQ) November 6, 2020
ABC News, CBS News, CNN, and NBC News have a different method on election night. They rely on a partnership called the National Election Pool, which provides exit polling and other data to the member organizations. (Fox News and AP used to be a part of it but left the group after the 2016 race.)
NBC News explains that NEP will have about 4,000 staffers in 2020, both for exit polling and for collecting county- and precinct-level votes (which AP used to do for all these groups before it left the pool). Like AP, NBC claims, “Vote results are rigorously checked and verified. Part of quality control involves checking that vote data is consistent across sources, and we also compare the vote to past election results to see whether the turnout looks extremely different across multiple past races.”
NBC clarifies that while it relies on that vote and exit poll data to make its projections, its projections are independent of the NEP itself and made for NBC alone. Other NEP members like CNN have explained their process similarly. Once there’s raw vote data to look at, Jennifer Agiesta, CNN’s director of polling and election analytics, says, “we’re looking at how much we know about all the different types of vote that are out there, where in the state those votes have come from, how they compare to what we know about votes there in the past, and what we know about what’s left to count.”
The unusually high level of absentee voting/vote-by-mail in 2020, amid the Covid-19 pandemic, certainly complicated this year’s calling efforts. To get a sense of what the vote that’s in at, say, 8:30 pm on election night means, you have to have a sense of how many people voted in person that day versus by mail, how much of the initial vote total is by mail versus in person, where the in-person votes come from, how in-person versus by-mail voters lean in key races, and so forth.
With voting methods changing dramatically this year, that all could be harder to predict. “If a state is somewhat slower to count its mail-in ballots, which we find often does happen, then we need to adjust our race calling to make sure that we have an accurate view of all the outstanding votes before we call a race,” Sally Buzbee, a senior vice president at the AP who runs their election-calling operation, explained at a roundtable event of election-calling experts before the election.
CNN’s Agiesta agreed with that sentiment, saying, “the amount of vote left to count is critical, and may be a more difficult piece of information to track down in 2020,” because of vote-by-mail and “the decreased value in knowing the number of precincts reporting. There are fewer people voting on Election Day in most places and some states are consolidating precincts, so comparisons of the number of people voting in a particular precinct now to the past are less valuable, and it may be harder to get a good read on Election Day turnout before a county or town is fully reported.”
The result might be more cautious network calls this year than in the past. But even the presidential election not being called until the next day would not be unprecedented. In 2000, of course, the process was slow, but in 2004 as well, networks declined to call the election for George W. Bush until Wednesday morning.
Decision Desk, Vox’s partner, explained
Vox has worked with Decision Desk since 2017. Here’s how its process works: Officials responsible for reporting elections generally report them on a public website. But if you’ve ever tried to access one of these sites, you’ve probably noticed they are mostly terrible. They often do not post the most useful information front and center — like where to vote and election results. They also aren’t necessarily easy to find through a Google search.
This is where firms like Decision Desk come in. Media outlets pay them to do the extra work necessary to pull results together. Decision Desk uses an API, or application programming interface, that essentially allows the firm to get the information at the same time as it’s published on those state and county websites, provided by election officials. It also scrapes information directly from other public sites. And it uses old-fashioned methods, like phone calls and faxes, though to a far lesser extent than the AP does, to communicate with county officials.
The result, it argues, is a data collection operation that’s much faster than other organizations’, which in turn translates into faster race calls. Tranter explains that ultimately, for both his team at Decision Desk HQ and other call teams, calling elections is an algebra problem. The equation is super-simple: Each candidate’s votes (vote-by-mail plus early voting in person plus Election Day) summed equal total turnout:
Candidate A (VBM + EIPV + EDV) + Candidate B (VBM + EIPV + EDV) + ... + Candidate Z (VBM + EIPV + EDV) = TT Where VBM = Vote By Mail; EIPV = Early In-Person Voting; EDV = Election Day Vote; and TT = Total Turnout.
Going into election night, the teams had a decent sense of how many people had voted by mail and in person, and might be able to use polling to figure out whom those people voted for. These teams’ turnout models provide an estimate of total turnout. But the rest is in flux throughout the night and in the days that follow.
“The key variable in all this as tabulation nears completion is, how many votes are left?” Tranter says. “If you know how many votes are left you can determine if there are enough votes to move a second-place candidate into first place, and if there is not, then you can assume the current vote leader will win.” On Tranter’s team, there’s a unanimity rule: All three race call team members assigned to a particular race have to agree that it’s impossible for the trailing candidate to make up the difference in order to call that race.
Is it possible they miscall some races? Sure — even a team with 99.8 percent accuracy will miss a race or two.
But so far, Decision Desk has had a strong track record. It’s only had to go back on one general election call since it started offering its services to clients like Vox, which was in California’s 21st Congressional District, where Republican David Valadao lost to Democrat TJ Cox in 2018. It was an extraordinarily close race, and though at first it looked like Valadao had a lead that wouldn’t be affected by mail-in ballots, it ultimately flipped on the last mail-in ballots. On this, Decision Desk wasn’t alone. The Associated Press had to recall that election too, plus a race in North Carolina that DDHQ didn’t erroneously call.
Decision Desk also made one incorrect projection in the 2020 primaries, predicting that Rep. Lacy Clay (D-MO) would win his primary when challenger Cori Bush beat him in an upset. “The challenge we had in that race was an unexpected split between the early mail-in votes and the day-of vote,” Tranter says. “While that has been expected in the general election, we had not until that point seen such a drastic split within a Democratic primary challenge. When the Election Day vote went so strongly to Bush, it became clear she would win and that our call for Clay had to be publicly withdrawn.”
Decision Desk HQ projects that @JoeBiden has won Pennsylvania and its 20 electoral college votes for a total of 273.
Joe Biden has been elected the 46th President of the United States of America.
Race called at 11-06 08:50 AM EST
All Results: https://t.co/BgcQsEyt3j — Decision Desk HQ (@DecisionDeskHQ) November 6, 2020
But DDHQ called the vast majority of 2020 primary races correctly, and the AP has had two retractions in Georgia’s congressional primaries this year, putting DDHQ still ahead by a bit in terms of accuracy. DDHQ is often quite fast, relative to competitors. In the primaries, it beat its main competitor, AP, by 47 minutes in New Hampshire and by 15 minutes in Nevada, and it called the race almost immediately in South Carolina.
In short, you can trust Decision Desk HQ. You can also trust its competitors like AP, NBC News, ABC News, Fox News, and so forth. We picked DDHQ because we think they’re the best, but no one is running a shoddy operation here.
The key, though, is patience. Part of being a good race caller is declining to call races when there’s legitimate uncertainty. Decision Desk has called the presidential race, but you might not get definitive answers elsewhere as soon as you want to. Be patient, and we’ll all figure this out together.


vox--2020-10-29--A terror attack in Nice threatens to turbocharge France’s debate on free speech and Islam

The killing of three people in southern France on Thursday has been deemed a terrorist attack by French officials — and it looks to be related to the country ’ s ongoing controversy over the public display of cartoons depicting Islam ’ s Prophet Muhammad and the government ’ s general approach toward Islam .
Around 9 am local time Thursday in Nice , an assailant used a knife to kill three people , two women and a man , at the Notre-Dame Basilica .
One of the women died inside the church , as did the man ; the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ bar but was mortally wounded , ” according to the AP .
Nice Mayor Christian Estrosi told reporters he believes the attack was perpetrated by an Islamist extremist .
“ He cried ‘ Allah Akbar !
’ over and over , even after he was injured ” by police , Estrosi said .
( “ Allahu akbar , ” Arabic for “ God is great , ” is a common expression used by Muslims , especially during prayers . )
“ The meaning of his gesture left no doubt , ” Estrosi added @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and has been hospitalized .
Two other incidents occurred on Thursday , the same day some Muslims observe Mawlid , a celebration of the Prophet Muhammad ’ s birthday .
In Montfavet , also in southern France , a man was shot dead after threatening police with a handgun ; in Saudi Arabia , a guard outside the French consulate in Jeddah was stabbed .
The guard was hospitalized but his condition remains stable , the French embassy in Riyadh said in a statement , and the suspect has been arrested .
In @ @ @ @ @ @ @ other incidents , the French government raised the nation ’ s security alert to its highest level and increased the number of troops protecting schools and religious sites from 3,000 to 7,000 .
French President Emmanuel Macron , after visiting the scene in Nice , issued a stark message : “ I say this with the outmost clarity — we will not give in to terrorism.
” Leaders in several Muslim-majority countries , including Saudi Arabia , Egypt , and the United Arab Emirates , have condemned the Nice attack .
“ Under @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ” Egypt ’ s highest religious authority , Al-Azhar , said in a tweet , calling them “ inconsistent with the tolerant teachings of Islam and all divine religions.
” The Nice attack happened amid a broader debate in France over Islam and free speech Earlier this month , a suspected Islamist extremist beheaded Samuel Paty , a 47-year-old secondary-school teacher , as he walked home from school .
Days earlier , as part of a class discussion on freedom of speech , Paty had showed his 12- to 14-year-old students two caricatures @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the satirical magazine Charlie Hebdo — the same images that inspired jihadists to kill 11 staff members at the magazine and six others in Paris in 2015 .
Police found a Twitter account suspected of belonging to Paty ’ s attacker that featured a picture of the severed head along with a message : “ I have executed one of the dogs from hell who dared to put Muhammad down.
” Macron ’ s government turned Paty into a freedom-of-expression hero .
At a national memorial for the slain teacher last week , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ fight for freedom ” and “ intensify ” efforts to end Islamist extremism in the country .
He also said France would continue to back anyone who wanted to display cartoons of Muhammad , noting his nation ’ s deep culture of secularism .
Macron ’ s goal , as he describes it , is to create an “ Islam of France ” that aims to seamlessly integrate Muslims into French society .
Last week , French police raided numerous homes across the country as part of its probe into Paty ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ taken into custody , and 51 Islamic organizations are under investigation .
The aftermath of Paty ’ s killing has rekindled a contentious debate in France about how to balance freedom of expression with respect for a religion .
The Nice attack will only add fuel to the fire .
“ The point of terrorism is to shock , incite tensions , and block this discussion , ” said Charles Thépaut , a visiting fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy , a think tank based in Washington , DC .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ has already called for a harsher government response .
“ Enough is enough , ” he said .
“ It is now time for France to exempt itself of peacetime laws to permanently annihilate Islamo-facism from our territory.
” Help keep Vox free for all Millions turn to Vox each month to understand what ’ s happening in the news , from the coronavirus crisis to a racial reckoning to what is , quite possibly , the most consequential presidential election of our lifetimes .
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Even when the economy and the news advertising market recovers , your support will be a critical part of sustaining our resource-intensive work .
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The killing of three people in southern France on Thursday has been deemed a terrorist attack by French officials — and it looks to be related to the country’s ongoing controversy over the public display of cartoons depicting Islam’s Prophet Muhammad and the government’s general approach toward Islam.
Around 9 am local time Thursday in Nice, an assailant used a knife to kill three people, two women and a man, at the Notre-Dame Basilica. One of the women died inside the church, as did the man; the second woman “fled to a nearby bar but was mortally wounded,” according to the AP.
Nice Mayor Christian Estrosi told reporters he believes the attack was perpetrated by an Islamist extremist. “He cried ‘Allah Akbar!’ over and over, even after he was injured” by police, Estrosi said. (“Allahu akbar,” Arabic for “God is great,” is a common expression used by Muslims, especially during prayers.) “The meaning of his gesture left no doubt,” Estrosi added.
The suspect is now in custody and has been hospitalized.
Two other incidents occurred on Thursday, the same day some Muslims observe Mawlid, a celebration of the Prophet Muhammad’s birthday. In Montfavet, also in southern France, a man was shot dead after threatening police with a handgun; in Saudi Arabia, a guard outside the French consulate in Jeddah was stabbed. The guard was hospitalized but his condition remains stable, the French embassy in Riyadh said in a statement, and the suspect has been arrested.
In response to the Nice attack and the other incidents, the French government raised the nation’s security alert to its highest level and increased the number of troops protecting schools and religious sites from 3,000 to 7,000. French President Emmanuel Macron, after visiting the scene in Nice, issued a stark message: “I say this with the outmost clarity — we will not give in to terrorism.”
Leaders in several Muslim-majority countries, including Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and the United Arab Emirates, have condemned the Nice attack. “Under no circumstances are these attacks justifiable,” Egypt’s highest religious authority, Al-Azhar, said in a tweet, calling them “inconsistent with the tolerant teachings of Islam and all divine religions.”
The Nice attack happened amid a broader debate in France over Islam and free speech
Earlier this month, a suspected Islamist extremist beheaded Samuel Paty, a 47-year-old secondary-school teacher, as he walked home from school. Days earlier, as part of a class discussion on freedom of speech, Paty had showed his 12- to 14-year-old students two caricatures of Muhammad that had been published by the satirical magazine Charlie Hebdo — the same images that inspired jihadists to kill 11 staff members at the magazine and six others in Paris in 2015.
Police found a Twitter account suspected of belonging to Paty’s attacker that featured a picture of the severed head along with a message: “I have executed one of the dogs from hell who dared to put Muhammad down.”
Macron’s government turned Paty into a freedom-of-expression hero. At a national memorial for the slain teacher last week, Macron said France “will continue the fight for freedom” and “intensify” efforts to end Islamist extremism in the country.
He also said France would continue to back anyone who wanted to display cartoons of Muhammad, noting his nation’s deep culture of secularism. Macron’s goal, as he describes it, is to create an “Islam of France” that aims to seamlessly integrate Muslims into French society.
Last week, French police raided numerous homes across the country as part of its probe into Paty’s killing. About 15 people have been taken into custody, and 51 Islamic organizations are under investigation.
The aftermath of Paty’s killing has rekindled a contentious debate in France about how to balance freedom of expression with respect for a religion. The Nice attack will only add fuel to the fire.
“The point of terrorism is to shock, incite tensions, and block this discussion,” said Charles Thépaut, a visiting fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, a think tank based in Washington, DC.
Estrosi, Nice’s mayor, has already called for a harsher government response. “Enough is enough,” he said. “It is now time for France to exempt itself of peacetime laws to permanently annihilate Islamo-facism from our territory.”
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vox--2020-10-29--9 questions about 2020’s record-breaking early vote, answered

More than 80 million Americans have voted so far in 2020 , an enormous figure that by the time you read this might already be out of date .
The early vote in 2020 has already far surpassed the total early vote in 2016 .
The early vote surge indicates turnout in 2020 could be the highest in a century , at around 65 percent of the voting-eligible population , or about 150 million voters .
And 2016 wasn ’ t exactly shabby in turnout : About 60 percent of those eligible voted .
“ We ’ re seeing a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ we ’ re seeing a public , I think , that is responding to a message that you need to cast that ballot early this year , ” Paul Gronke , a professor of political science at Reed College who runs the Early Voter Information Center , said .
Enthusiasm among both Democratic and Republican voters is high .
President Donald Trump is the reason : His supporters are extremely motivated to reelect their guy , and the other side is extremely motivated to vote him out .
Voters also absorbed the “ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ by safety concerns about voting during the coronavirus pandemic , and by rhetoric around the integrity of the election system , from the Trumpian attacks on mail-in voting to Democratic concerns about a dysfunctional US Postal Service .
But rather than deterring people from voting , it may be driving them to the polls right now .
“ People are responding — thankfully , not by not casting a ballot , but by casting an early ballot , ” Gronke added .
Beyond turnout , the early vote data offers only partial clues @ @ @ @ @ @ @ hints at who ’ s voting , and how , and where they are on the electoral map .
But what it absolutely can ’ t do is forecast the thing that many are fretting about : who is actually going to win .
That will have to wait until at least Election Day , and very likely many days after .
But in the meantime , Vox is here to answer all the questions you have about the early vote : what it looks like , what it means , and whether @ @ @ @ @ @ @ America votes , for good .
1 ) What does early voting look like in 2020 ?
Due to a combination of the coronavirus pandemic and increased enthusiasm , early voting and mail-in voting are more popular than ever .
Last week , with 11 days left to go before the election , the number of early votes officially surpassed 2016 ’ s early vote numbers .
Now , less than a week before Election Day , more than 80 million people have cast early votes — more than half the entire 2016 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ or mail-in options , though the specific rules and deadlines vary by state .
Nine states — California , Colorado , Hawaii , Nevada , New Jersey , Oregon , Utah , Vermont , and Washington — along with Washington , DC , mailed ballots to all eligible voters .
Others — Indiana , Louisiana , Mississippi , Tennessee , and Texas — required specific reasons to get a mail-in ballot .
In some states , early vote numbers are nearing total 2016 turnout numbers , including Texas ( 94 percent of 2016 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ) , and North Carolina ( 81 percent ) , suggesting total voter turnout might end up being higher than in 2016 .
2 ) How many people are voting by mail versus in person ?
The majority of early votes are coming in the form of mail-in ballots , which make up two-thirds of the 80 million early votes , according to data from the US Elections Project , run by the University of Florida ’ s Michael McDonald .
Trump has sought to discredit this type of voting through a disinformation @ @ @ @ @ @ @ extremely rare .
The mail-in option has also been stymied by Postal Service delays .
If you have a mail-in ballot that you haven ’ t turned in yet , don ’ t mail it .
Instead , you should now drop it off at an election drop box or vote in person in order to guarantee your vote is counted .
People have also been turning out to a lesser extent to vote in person ahead of the election , with 28 million doing so thus far .
High turnout for early @ @ @ @ @ @ @ across the country .
3 ) Who , exactly , is voting early ?
According to the US Elections Project , in the 20 states that report party registration , Democrats have turned out early to vote at nearly twice the rate of Republicans .
However , that data is likely skewed by the inclusion of states like California ( a highly populous and Democratic state ) and the unavailability of data from states like Texas ( also highly populous and more Republican ) .
TargetSmart , a Democratic data firm that uses @ @ @ @ @ @ @ data to model early voter demographics in states where that information is unavailable , shows that Democrats have nearly a 10 percentage point lead over Republicans .
Of course , partisan affiliation , while indicative of how a person might vote , doesn ’ t guarantee a person will vote for their party ’ s candidates .
Perhaps most notable are the early turnout numbers among people who didn ’ t vote at all in 2016 .
“ Over 16 million people voted already who didn ’ t vote in 2016 , ” @ @ @ @ @ @ @ this week .
“ Those are the people who have the ability to change the composition of the electorate relative to 2016.
” Only a quarter of these new voters are under 30 , suggesting these aren ’ t just people who are newly of voting age .
Those new voters , he said , are also more likely to be Democrats and more likely to be Asian or Hispanic than the electorate at large .
This group also includes seniors over 65 , who may have sat out in 2016 .
Some @ @ @ @ @ @ @ midterms , part of the reason for the “ blue wave ” back then , Bonier said , but they ’ re returning again in 2020 .
Younger voters are also turning out , and so far it ’ s an “ astronomical ” difference compared to 2016 , according to Kristian Lundberg , an associate researcher at the Center for Information Research & Civic Learning and Engagement ( CIRCLE ) .
In Texas , for example , more than 750,000 voters ages 18 to 29 voted early in this election , as @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a little more than 100,000 who voted early in 2016 .
4 ) What kind of problems are we seeing with early voting ?
The biggest headlines from the early vote are about long lines , long lines , long lines .
Long lines are sometimes celebrated as a sign of high voter enthusiasm .
Pandemic safety protocols , a reduced number of polling sites , and poll worker shortages in some places also slow down the process .
Sometimes technical glitches at voting sites cause delays , which ripple throughout the day @ @ @ @ @ @ @ hours-long wait times that many voters face as part of a pattern of voter suppression .
Voters in many of America ’ s peer democracies don ’ t spend hours standing in line to cast their ballots , and US voting advocates believe reforms such as expanding early voting and standardizing some voting procedures and resources could ease wait times .
That would also cut down on more nefarious suppression tactics , such as reducing the number of polling stations in minority neighborhoods .
In 2020 , experts see a combination of the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , along with the unpredictable realities of this strange year of voting in a pandemic .
Typically , states open many more polling sites on Election Day , compared to the early voting period .
Election officials have to do their best to anticipate how many people are going to vote , and when , but that ’ s always an imperfect exercise .
And especially in places that are just trying out early voting for the first time , or are offering expanded vote-by-mail options , it can be hard to precisely @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Cuevas-Molina , an assistant professor of political science at Fordham University , pointed out that in New York , the lines are long , but the state is also deploying early voting for the first time in a presidential election .
Some growing pains are to be expected as the state adjusts to a new system .
“ But in places like Georgia , where they ’ ve had early voting for a while now , we should be seeing more efficiency , ” she said .
“ And when you don ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , with early voting , you can make the conclusion that there is voter suppression happening in a place that is supposed to be experienced.
” Technical glitches also happen , as they did in Fulton County , Georgia , which caused delays as officials had to reboot the software .
Officials in Fort Bend County , Texas , had to extend polling hours at the start of early voting because of a technical error .
Issues like these do crop up in places and add to wait times — although , that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ voting .
It ’ s usually not someone ’ s last chance to vote .
Finally , some voting advocates have expressed concerns about voter intimidation , fueled by some of Trump ’ s rhetoric around voter fraud and his encouragement to supporters to “ watch the polls.
” In Pinellas County , Florida , law enforcement officials posted sheriff ’ s deputies at polling sites after two armed security guards claiming to represent the Trump campaign came to a voting location .
( The Trump campaign denied any affiliation in a statement @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the Trump campaign video-recorded voters dropping off ballots in drop boxes , which could potentially constitute illegal voter intimidation .
So there have been a few troubling examples of possible voter intimidation but , so far , no large-scale threats to voters .
Voter intimidation is always illegal , and voting advocates say voters should report any possible violations .
The Election Protection hotline is one helpful resource .
5 ) How about problems with voting by mail ?
Mail-in voting is a bit more complicated to track , because only some states @ @ @ @ @ @ @ mail-in ballots .
Plenty of other states , including the swing states Pennsylvania and Wisconsin , can ’ t begin to even process or count ballots until Election Day .
The biggest concern around mail-in ballots is the rejection rate — that is , the number of ballots that are tossed out ( for whatever reason ) as a percentage of the total number submitted .
Mail-in ballots typically have a higher rate of rejection than ballots cast in polling places .
This isn ’ t because of voter fraud , but because @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and make mistakes .
Mail-in ballots can get rejected in some states if a voter ’ s ballot signature doesn ’ t match the one in their voter registration file .
Sometimes voters forget to sign at all , or use the wrong color ink .
And many ballots are disqualified because they arrive too late to be counted .
In 2016 , slightly less than 1 percent of the 33.4 million mail-in ballots submitted were rejected .
But the number of people voting by mail this year is much higher — more @ @ @ @ @ @ @ mail ballots in 2020 — and that likely includes many voters who ’ ve never cast ballots by mail before .
“ There is a definite concern this year that there will be higher ballot rejection rates as new people are voting by mail and mistakes are made , ” Gronke said .
If the race is super close in certain swing states , that rejection rate could be the difference between who wins and who loses .
Trump , remember , won by fewer than 80,000 votes in three states in 2016 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of political science at the University of New Mexico and a principal at Latino Decisions , said that based on the data he has seen , Latinos , African Americans , and younger voters are among those whose mail ballots are more likely to have problems that get them tossed .
“ That ’ s something obviously that concerns a lot of folk , ” he said .
“ Regardless of the horse-race element , just in terms of those segments of the electorate feeling like they have their vote counted.
” Still @ @ @ @ @ @ @ count ” has likely helped motivate voters to make sure their ballots are accepted .
Election officials and voting advocacy groups have emphasized that voters need to carefully fill out ballots , and many states allow voters to track their ballots to make sure they ’ re received , processed , and accepted .
“ Cure ” processes have also been set up in most places so voters can remedy discrepancies or errors that might have led to their ballots being rejected .
Still , experts point out that these procedures are far @ @ @ @ @ @ @ being litigated .
For example , election officials might not have a voter ’ s current phone number or email address to swiftly contact them if their ballot is rejected .
Sanchez said his data shows that some Latino voters , for instance , have had to change addresses because of Covid-19 financial hardships , which means they may never get a notice that there ’ s a problem with their ballot should one occur .
And while ballots can be “ cured ” for signature problems or other errors , there ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ballots arrive at election offices past the deadline .
( Which is why , if you still plan to vote with a mail-in ballot , you need to drop it off at a designated location . )
Bonier , of TargetSmart , said that , so far , there isn ’ t any evidence of disproportionate numbers of mail-in ballots being rejected this year .
“ But the absence of evidence doesn ’ t equal the absence of that phenomenon , ” he said .
“ The hope is that those numbers will @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
“ But , unfortunately , I think in a lot of these places , we just won ’ t know , until we get there.
” 6 ) What does this mean for overall 2020 turnout ?
The early voting turnout in 2020 is unprecedented .
In 2016 , about 41 percent of voters cast ballots before Election Day , which breaks down to about 24 percent by mail and 17 percent who voted early in person , according to the US Election Assistance Commission .
So far , in 2020 , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the total number of votes in 2016 , and early voting extends through the weekend in many places — so expect millions more people to vote early this year than did in 2016 .
Plus , around a third of voters are still expected to vote on Election Day , according to the Democracy Fund .
“ It is , of course , enormous , and of a scale that we haven ’ t seen , ” said John Fortier , the director of governmental studies at the Bipartisan Policy Center and author @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , Promises and Perils .
“ And usually , I do caution people , we shouldn ’ t read the tea leaves about early voting too much .
Because , of course , you could see many people showing up early , and then the other people don ’ t show up later — and then we don ’ t have higher turnout.
” “ But , I mean , the enthusiasm here , and the amount that we ’ re seeing , is just off the charts , ” he added .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ the novelty of the new method of voting — whether early or by mail — can sometimes generate interest and enthusiasm , so “ there is a crush at the very beginning of that period ” that might taper off , before picking up again on Election Day .
Of course , this year is also different because of the coronavirus .
“ People are obviously getting the message — I think a good message — that there ’ s some incentive to get your ballot in early , ” Fortier said .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ of very early voters as being the most committed to candidate or party.
” But even with all of that , forecasters still think the United States could hit 65 percent turnout — which , while still leaving out many voters , could be the highest in a century .
Turnout was about 60 percent in 2016 , at about 137 million people .
The website FiveThirtyEight is predicting turnout of about 154 million people , based on polls of voter enthusiasm and other data .
It could still be a record , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ or close to 70 percent turnout , Fortier said , “ would be just extraordinary.
” 7 ) What does this mean for the outcome of the election ?
Not much !
Sorry to disappoint those of you who really want to read the tea leaves , but the reality is that the early voting data just isn ’ t useful for predicting the outcome of the election .
Yes , Democrats have an edge in early voting overall .
Registered Democrats voted early at a higher rate than Republicans , but that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in much greater numbers by mail , which is a big reason they have such a big advantage in the early vote count .
This was expected , especially as President Trump ’ s false but nonetheless repeated claims about voter fraud filtered down to his supporters .
So Republicans are showing up for early in-person voting , and even more are expected to turn out on Election Day .
“ I think we can safely say at this point that , yes , Republicans are just more likely to vote in person @ @ @ @ @ @ @ or on Election Day , ” TargetSmart ’ s Bonier said .
“ But then , the remaining question is : Will enough of them do so in order to offset the Democratic advantage that ’ s been built in mail balloting , which in some of these states is hundreds of thousands of votes ?
” Nationally , maybe not — especially with populous blue states like California in the mix .
But that doesn ’ t really matter because the popular vote isn ’ t how America elects presidents .
And @ @ @ @ @ @ @ chipping away at Democrats ’ early vote lead .
Again , party registration itself is an imperfect metric , because it doesn ’ t predict with certainty whether someone will vote for Biden or Trump .
And not all voters affiliate themselves with a political party ; unaffiliated voters cast about a quarter of all early votes in states where that data is available .
So do yourself a favor and don ’ t try to make predictions about the outcome of this election based on early voting trends , because it will @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ) Ugh , okay , fine .
But what does all this early voting mean for how soon we ’ ll know the results of the election ?
Might that at least come in early ?
We ’ ll know the results when we know the results .
Depending on how the electoral map shakes out , it might be possible to get a sense of whether Biden or Trump has won on election night .
But more likely , if the election is very close , it ’ s going to take @ @ @ @ @ @ @ winner , even if some news organizations anoint a presumptive winner .
States have different rules on vote processing and counting , and that will make a huge difference in how results are reported .
Some states , such as Florida and Arizona , have already started to process and count mail-in ballots .
North Carolina has also begun processing ballots — basically making sure the ballot is accepted and matches the voter files — and though it can ’ t count until Election Day , putting the ballots in counting machines is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ as Wisconsin and Pennsylvania can ’ t even start processing mail-in ballots until Election Day .
Michigan can start processing ballots the day before Election Day .
Those disparities in vote counting could make for a few “ mirages ” — both red and blue .
Because Democrats have an edge in early voting , specifically in mail-in voting , states like Florida and North Carolina could very well post results that look favorable to Democrats early in the night .
This could be a so-called “ blue mirage , ” where it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a state like North Carolina only to see those results tighten and tighten .
Meanwhile , a “ red mirage ” could happen elsewhere on the map , specifically those states like Pennsylvania , Wisconsin , and Michigan that are processing and counting ballots much later .
Here , the opposite phenomenon could happen : A “ red mirage ” might give the impression that Trump is way ahead , only to see his lead shrink and shrink .
It ’ s going to take much , much longer to count ballots in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ days to declare a presumptive winner .
Election officials are preparing for this .
Pennsylvania Secretary of State Kathy Boockvar said she is asking counties to update their election results periodically , rather than all at once , to avoid the appearance of massive shifts that might feed conspiracy theories .
The important thing for voters , however , is to expect to wait .
9 ) So is early voting , in all its forms , going to be a permanent thing now ?
2020 is a truly unusual year : a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ rhetoric that ’ s undermining democracy and making people fearful of being disenfranchised .
All of that makes it hard to know whether the explosion of early voting this year is an outlier , or the start of a new normal .
As experts pointed out , the number of people voting early , either in person or by mail , was already increasing gradually , and even without all of the crises that have happened this year , it was expected to grow .
This year just supercharged everything : Voters who @ @ @ @ @ @ @ opted to vote by mail .
And many , many states changed to make it easier to vote by mail .
What emerged from necessity could become more permanent , as both voters and election officials realize there might be better ways to run elections .
Once you make it easier for people to vote , either by mail or in person , they ’ re just not going to want to go back .
This is the “ habituation effect , ” as Gronke , of Reed College ’ s Early Voter @ @ @ @ @ @ @ When people cast their ballot via one of these new methods , they tend to do it again .
And so I do think we ’ re going to see a lot of people who previously had thought , ‘ Oh , polling places is the way to do it , ’ vote by mail [ this year ] and say , ‘ Wow , that was easy .
That was really convenient .
I liked that.
’ So I do think that this is going to be a permanent shift.
” And @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Election officials might have a few epiphanies , too , especially when it comes to voting by mail .
It ’ s easier to run and staff elections that way , and it can be a lot less expensive than running in-person elections .
“ It ’ s possible in places like Nevada , Montana , New Jersey , Vermont , DC , these states that moved temporarily to all-mail ballots , that they may decide to do so on a more permanent basis in the future because it ’ s just cheaper @ @ @ @ @ @ @ US Elections Project , said .
Gronke predicts another spurt of election reform , similar to what happened after the 2000 election , and the Florida recount , in the race between George W. Bush and Al Gore , including possible proposals at the federal level to expand the franchise .
House Democrats have already passed a voting rights bill , and should Democrats retake Congress and the White House , they will likely pursue that as a top priority .
Still , the 2020 election has shown how partisanship has leaked even @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , not just whom they vote for .
Democrats , so far , have overwhelmingly favored voting by mail , while Republicans have preferred voting in person , in part because of the president ’ s rhetoric .
Depending on the outcome of the election , those divides could harden even more , and become a roadblock to reform .
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Nearly 100 million Americans voted early in 2020, an enormous, record-breaking figure heading into Election Day.
The early vote in 2020 has far surpassed the total early vote in 2016. The early vote surge indicates turnout in 2020 could be the highest in a century, at around 65 percent of the voting-eligible population, or about 150 million voters.
And 2016 wasn’t exactly shabby in turnout: About 60 percent of those eligible voted.
“We’re seeing a very energized, interested electorate, and we’re seeing a public, I think, that is responding to a message that you need to cast that ballot early this year,” Paul Gronke, a professor of political science at Reed College who runs the Early Voting Information Center, said.
Enthusiasm among both Democratic and Republican voters is high. President Donald Trump is the reason: His supporters are extremely motivated to reelect their guy, and the other side is extremely motivated to vote him out.
Voters also absorbed the “vote early” directive, likely motivated by safety concerns about voting during the coronavirus pandemic, and by rhetoric around the integrity of the election system, from the Trumpian attacks on mail-in voting to Democratic concerns about a dysfunctional US Postal Service.
But rather than deterring people from voting, it may have driven them to the polls. “People are responding — thankfully, not by not casting a ballot, but by casting an early ballot,” Gronke added.
Beyond turnout, the early vote data offers only partial clues about the electorate in 2020. It hints at who’s voting, how, and where they are on the electoral map. But what it absolutely can’t do is forecast the thing that many are fretting about: who is going to win.
That will have to wait until at least election night, and potentially days after. But in the meantime, Vox is here to answer all the questions you have about the early vote: what it looks like, what it means, and whether this election year might radically change how America votes, for good.
1) What did early voting turnout look like in 2020?
Due to a combination of the pandemic and increased enthusiasm, early voting and mail-in voting were more popular than ever. Last month, with 11 days left to go before the election, the number of early votes officially surpassed 2016 early vote numbers. By Election Day, more than 99 million people cast early votes — 72 percent of the entire 2016 turnout, according to US Elections Project, run by the University of Florida’s Michael McDonald.
All states offered early voting or mail-in options, though the specific rules and deadlines vary by state. Nine states — California, Colorado, Hawaii, Nevada, New Jersey, Oregon, Utah, Vermont, and Washington — along with Washington, DC, mailed ballots to all eligible voters. Others — Indiana, Louisiana, Mississippi, Tennessee, and Texas — required specific reasons to receive a mail-in ballot.
In Texas, Washington, Montana, and Hawaii, early voter turnout surpassed total votes in 2016. In other states, early vote numbers are near total 2016 turnout numbers, including North Carolina (95 percent), Georgia (94 percent), and Florida (94 percent), suggesting total voter turnout might end up being higher than in 2016.
2) How many people voted by mail versus in person?
The majority of early votes are coming in the form of mail-in ballots, which make up about two-thirds of the more than 99 million early votes, according to data from the US Elections Project.
Trump has sought to discredit this type of voting through a disinformation campaign, but mail-in voter fraud is extremely rare. The mail-in option has also been stymied by Postal Service delays. If you have a mail-in ballot that you haven’t turned in yet, don’t mail it. Instead, you should drop it off at an election drop box or vote in person in order to guarantee your vote is counted.
People have also been turning out to a lesser extent to vote in person ahead of the election, with nearly 36 million doing so thus far. High turnout for early voting can be seen in long lines across the country.
3) Who, exactly, voted early?
According to the US Elections Project, in the 20 states that report party registration, Democrats have a 15 percentage point lead in early votes over Republicans.
However, that data is likely skewed by the inclusion of states like California (a highly populous and Democratic state) and the unavailability of data from states like Texas (also highly populous and more Republican).
TargetSmart, a Democratic data firm that uses voter file data in addition to consumer data to model early voter demographics in states where that information is unavailable, shows that Democrats have more like a 6 percentage point lead over Republicans. Of course, partisan affiliation, while indicative of how a person might vote, doesn’t guarantee a person will vote for their party’s candidates.
Perhaps most notable are the early turnout numbers among people who didn’t vote at all in 2016. So far, 26.5 million people voted in 2020 who didn’t vote at all in 2016, according to TargetSmart data. “Those are the people who have the ability to change the composition of the electorate relative to 2016,” TargetSmart CEO Tom Bonier told Vox.
Just over one-quarter of these new voters are under 30, suggesting these aren’t just people who are newly of voting age. Those new voters, he said, are also more likely to be Democrats and more likely to be Asian or Hispanic than the electorate at large. This group also includes seniors over 65, who may have sat out in 2016. Some of these voters returned in the 2018 midterms, part of the reason for the “blue wave” back then, Bonier said, but they’re returning again in 2020.
Younger voters also turned out, and so far it’s an “astronomical” difference compared to 2016, according to Kristian Lundberg, an associate researcher at the Center for Information Research & Civic Learning and Engagement (CIRCLE). In Texas, for example, more than 1 million voters ages 18 to 29 had voted early in this election as of October 27, compared to just a little more than 100,000 who voted early in 2016. Total youth turnout was 1.2 million in Texas in 2016.
4) What kinds of problems did we see with early voting?
The biggest headlines from the early vote were about long lines, long lines, long lines. Long lines are sometimes celebrated as a sign of high voter enthusiasm. Pandemic safety protocols, a reduced number of polling sites, and poll worker shortages in some places also slow down the process. Sometimes technical glitches at voting sites cause delays, which ripple throughout the day.
And observers often point to the hours-long wait times that many voters face as part of a pattern of voter suppression.
Voters in many of America’s peer democracies don’t spend hours standing in line to cast their ballots, and US voting advocates believe reforms such as expanding early voting and standardizing some voting procedures and resources could ease wait times. That would also cut down on more nefarious suppression tactics, such as reducing the number of polling stations in minority neighborhoods.
In 2020, experts see a combination of the problems that have long plagued US voting, along with the unpredictable realities of this strange year of voting in a pandemic.
Typically, states open many more polling sites on Election Day, compared to the early voting period. Election officials have to do their best to anticipate how many people are going to vote, and when, but that’s always an imperfect exercise. And especially in places that are just trying out early voting for the first time, or are offering expanded vote-by-mail options, it can be hard to precisely predict turnout and rush times.
Ivelisse Cuevas-Molina, an assistant professor of political science at Fordham University, pointed out that in New York, the lines were long, but the state was also deploying early voting for the first time in a presidential election. Some growing pains are to be expected as the state adjusts to a new system.
“But in places like Georgia, where they’ve had early voting for a while now, we should be seeing more efficiency,” she said. “And when you don’t see efficiency in places like Georgia, with early voting, you can make the conclusion that there is voter suppression happening in a place that is supposed to be experienced.”
Technical glitches also happen, as they did in Fulton County, Georgia, which caused delays as officials had to reboot the software. Officials in Fort Bend County, Texas, had to extend polling hours at the start of early voting because of a technical error. Issues like these do crop up in places and add to wait times — although, that’s one major benefit of early voting. It’s usually not someone’s last chance to vote.
Finally, some voting advocates have expressed concerns about voter intimidation, fueled by some of Trump’s rhetoric around voter fraud and his encouragement to supporters to “watch the polls.”
In Pinellas County, Florida, law enforcement officials posted sheriff’s deputies at polling sites after two armed security guards claiming to represent the Trump campaign came to a voting location. (The Trump campaign denied any affiliation in a statement to reporters.) In Pennsylvania, the Trump campaign video-recorded voters dropping off ballots in drop boxes, which could potentially constitute illegal voter intimidation.
So there have been a few troubling examples of possible voter intimidation but, so far, no large-scale threats to voters. Voter intimidation is always illegal, and voting advocates say voters should report any possible violations. The Election Protection hotline is one helpful resource.
5) What kind of problems did we see with voting by mail?
Mail-in voting is a bit more complicated to track, because only some states, like Florida, have started processing mail-in ballots. Plenty of other states, including swing states Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, can’t begin to process or count ballots until Election Day.
The biggest concern around mail-in ballots is the rejection rate — that is, the number of ballots that are tossed out (for whatever reason) as a percentage of the total number submitted.
Mail-in ballots typically have a higher rate of rejection than ballots cast in polling places. This isn’t because of voter fraud, but because humans are, well, human, and make mistakes. Mail-in ballots can get rejected in some states if a voter’s ballot signature doesn’t match the one in their voter registration file. Sometimes voters forget to sign at all, or use the wrong color ink. And many ballots are disqualified because they arrive too late to be counted.
In 2016, slightly less than 1 percent of the 33.4 million mail-in ballots submitted were rejected. But the number of people voting by mail this year is much higher — more than 63 million people have turned in mail ballots in 2020 — and that likely includes many voters who’ve never cast ballots by mail before.
“There is a definite concern this year that there will be higher ballot rejection rates as new people are voting by mail and mistakes are made,” Gronke said. If the race is super close in certain swing states, that rejection rate could be the difference between who wins and who loses. Trump, remember, won by fewer than 80,000 votes in three states in 2016.
Gabriel R. Sanchez, a professor of political science at the University of New Mexico and a principal at Latino Decisions, said that based on the data he has seen, Latinos, African Americans, and younger voters are among those whose mail ballots are more likely to have problems that get them tossed.
“That’s something obviously that concerns a lot of folks,” he said. “Regardless of the horse-race element, just in terms of those segments of the electorate feeling like they have their vote counted.”
Still, rhetoric on “making your vote count” has likely helped motivate voters to make sure their ballots are accepted. Election officials and voting advocacy groups have emphasized that voters need to carefully fill out ballots, and many states allow voters to track their ballots to make sure they’re received, processed, and accepted. “Cure” processes have also been set up in most places so voters can remedy discrepancies or errors that might have led to their ballots being rejected.
Still, experts point out that these procedures are far from perfect, and some are still being litigated. For example, election officials might not have a voter’s current phone number or email address to swiftly contact them if their ballot is rejected.
Sanchez said his data shows that some Latino voters, for instance, have had to change addresses because of Covid-19 financial hardships, which means they may never get a notice that there’s a problem with their ballot should one occur.
And while ballots can be “cured” for signature problems or other errors, there’s nothing voters can do if their ballots arrive at election offices past the deadline. (Which is why, if you still plan to vote with a mail-in ballot, you need to drop it off at a designated location.)
Bonier, of TargetSmart, said that, so far, there isn’t any evidence of disproportionate numbers of mail-in ballots being rejected this year. “But the absence of evidence doesn’t equal the absence of that phenomenon,” he said.
“The hope is that those numbers will be reasonably low,” he added. “But, unfortunately, I think in a lot of these places, we just won’t know, until we get there.”
6) What do the early voting numbers mean for overall 2020 turnout?
The early voting turnout in 2020 is unprecedented.
In 2016, about 41 percent of voters cast ballots before Election Day, which breaks down to about 24 percent by mail and 17 percent who voted early in person, according to the US Election Assistance Commission.
In 2020, voters cast three-quarters of the total number of votes in 2016. Plus, around one-third of voters are still expected to vote on Election Day, according to the Democracy Fund.
“It is, of course, enormous, and of a scale that we haven’t seen,” said John Fortier, the director of governmental studies at the Bipartisan Policy Center and author of Absentee and Early Voting: Trends, Promises and Perils. “And usually, I do caution people, we shouldn’t read the tea leaves about early voting too much. Because, of course, you could see many people showing up early, and then the other people don’t show up later — and then we don’t have higher turnout.”
“But, I mean, the enthusiasm here, and the amount that we’re seeing, is just off the charts,” he added.
Fortier also pointed out that sometimes, the novelty of the new method of voting — whether early or by mail — can sometimes generate interest and enthusiasm, so “there is a crush at the very beginning of that period” that might taper off, before picking up again on Election Day.
Of course, this year is also different because of the coronavirus. “People are obviously getting the message — I think a good message — that there’s some incentive to get your ballot in early,” Fortier said. “Also, we tend to think of very early voters as being the most committed to acandidate or party.”
But even with all of that, forecasters still think the United States could hit 65 percent turnout — which, while still leaving out many voters, could be the highest in a century.
Turnout was about 60 percent in 2016, at about 137 million people. The website FiveThirtyEight is predicting turnout of about 154 million people, based on polls of voter enthusiasm and other data. It could still be a record, and anything in the high 60s, or close to 70 percent turnout, Fortier said, “would be just extraordinary.”
7) What do the early voting numbers mean for the outcome of the election?
Not much! Sorry to disappoint those of you who really want to read the tea leaves, but the reality is that the early voting data just isn’t useful for predicting the outcome of the election.
Yes, Democrats have an edge in early voting overall. Registered Democrats voted early at a higher rate than Republicans, but that number is narrowing.
Democrats are voting in much greater numbers by mail, which is a big reason they have such a big advantage in the early vote count. This was expected, especially as President Trump’s false but nonetheless repeated claims about voter fraud filtered down to his supporters. So Republicans showed up for early in-person voting, and even more are expected to turn out on Election Day.
“I think we can safely say at this point that, yes, Republicans are just more likely to vote in person, whether it’s early in-person or on Election Day,” TargetSmart’s Bonier said. “But then, the remaining question is: Will enough of them do so in order to offset the Democratic advantage that’s been built in mail balloting, which in some of these states is hundreds of thousands of votes?”
Nationally, maybe not — especially with populous blue states like California in the mix. But that doesn’t really matter because the popular vote isn’t how America elects presidents. And in places like Florida, Republicans chipped away at Democrats’ early vote lead.
Again, party registration itself is an imperfect metric, because it doesn’t predict with certainty whether someone will vote for Biden or Trump. And not all voters affiliate themselves with a political party; unaffiliated voters cast about one-quarter of all early votes in states where that data is available.
So do yourself a favor and don’t try to make predictions about the outcome of this election based on early voting trends, because it will be enormously stressful and still fruitless.
8) Ugh, okay, fine. But what does all this early voting mean for how soon we’ll know the results of the election? Might that at least come in early?
We’ll know the results when we know the results.
Depending on how the electoral map shakes out, it might be possible to get a sense of whether Biden or Trump has won on election night. But more likely, if the election is very close, it’s going to take a lot longer to declare an official winner, even if some news organizations anoint presumptive victors.
States have different rules on vote processing and counting, and that will make a huge difference in how results are reported. Some states, such as Florida and Arizona, have already started to process and count mail-in ballots. North Carolina has also begun processing ballots — basically making sure the ballot is accepted and matches the voter files — and though it can’t count until Election Day, putting the ballots in counting machines is the easier part. But states such as Wisconsin and Pennsylvania can’t even start processing mail-in ballots until Election Day. Michigan can start processing ballots the day before Election Day.
Those disparities in vote counting could make for a few “mirages” — both red and blue.
Because Democrats have an edge in early voting, specifically in mail-in voting, states like Florida and North Carolina could very well post results that look favorable to Democrats early in the night. This could be a so-called “blue mirage,” where it looks like Biden is about to win a state like North Carolina only to see those results tighten and tighten.
Meanwhile, a “red mirage” could happen elsewhere on the map, specifically those states like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan that are processing and counting ballots much later. Here, the opposite phenomenon could happen: A “red mirage” might give the impression that Trump is way ahead, only to see his lead shrink and shrink. It’s going to take much, much longer to count ballots in those states, and it may take days to declare a presumptive winner.
Election officials are preparing for this. Pennsylvania Secretary of State Kathy Boockvar said she is asking counties to update their election results periodically, rather than all at once, to avoid the appearance of massive shifts that might feed conspiracy theories.
The important thing for voters, however, is to expect to wait.
9) So is early voting, in all its forms, going to be a permanent thing now?
2020 is a truly unusual year: a pandemic, an economic crisis, political rhetoric that’s undermining democracy and making people fearful of being disenfranchised. All of that makes it hard to know whether the explosion of early voting this year is an outlier, or the start of a new normal.
As experts pointed out, the number of people voting early, either in person or by mail, was already increasing gradually, and even without all of the crises that have happened this year, it was expected to grow. This year just supercharged everything: Voters who’d typically go to the polls opted to vote by mail. And many, many states changed to make it easier to vote by mail.
What emerged from necessity could become more permanent, as both voters and election officials realize there might be better ways to run elections. Once you make it easier for people to vote, either by mail or in person, they’re just not going to want to go back.
This is the “habituation effect,” as Gronke, of Reed College’s Early Voting Information Center, calls it. “When people cast their ballot via one of these new methods, they tend to do it again. And so I do think we’re going to see a lot of people who previously had thought, ‘Oh, polling places is the way to do it,’ vote by mail [this year] and say, ‘Wow, that was easy. That was really convenient. I liked that.’ So I do think that this is going to be a permanent shift.”
And it’s not just voters. Election officials might have a few epiphanies, too, especially when it comes to voting by mail. It’s easier to run and staff elections that way, and it can be a lot less expensive than running in-person elections. “It’s possible in places like Nevada, Montana, New Jersey, Vermont, DC, these states that moved temporarily to all-mail ballots, that they may decide to do so on a more permanent basis in the future because it’s just cheaper,” McDonald, of the US Elections Project, said.
Gronke predicts another spurt of election reform, similar to what happened after the 2000 election, and the Florida recount, in the race between George W. Bush and Al Gore, including possible proposals at the federal level to expand the franchise. House Democrats have already passed a voting rights bill, and should Democrats retake Congress and the White House, they will likely pursue that as a top priority.
Still, the 2020 election has shown how partisanship has leaked even into the ways people choose to vote, not just whom they vote for. Democrats, so far, have overwhelmingly favored voting by mail, while Republicans have preferred voting in person, in part because of the president’s rhetoric. Depending on the outcome of the election, those divides could harden even more, and become a roadblock to reform.


vox--2020-10-29--Polls show Trump is losing ground where the coronavirus is surging

The third — and largest — coronavirus wave is hitting the US just in time for the presidential election , with surges in key Midwestern swing states .
Numerous polls suggest voters may be taking their pandemic pain and panic with them to the ballot boxes in these places : President Donald Trump isn ’ t just down in national polls — he ’ s faring especially poorly in battlegrounds where infection rates are spiking .
Over the last two weeks , the coronavirus case count in Wisconsin — where Trump won by a single percentage point in 2016 — @ @ @ @ @ @ @ average of 4,200 new infections per day .
And that ’ s just among the people who ’ ve been diagnosed .
The test positivity rate in the state is a staggering 28 percent , according to Covidexitstrategy.org , and health officials have already had to transform the state fair park into a field hospital to manage the crush of new patients .
The situation is nearly as worrisome in Michigan : Cases there have risen 73 percent in the last two weeks , to 2,600 per day , while the number of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ doubled since the end of September .
It ’ s another swing state , which Trump won by an even tinier margin of 0.3 percent in 2016 .
In these places , and the states around them , the majority of voters apparently prefer Biden .
That has mostly been the state of things for some time , but is perhaps even clearer as Election Day approaches .
“ Biden is doing well everywhere — but his leads are even more solid in places where the coronavirus is hitting the hardest , ” @ @ @ @ @ @ @ officer of Change Research , who has been tracking the impact of the pandemic on voter decision-making .
• According to a pair of Washington Post-ABC News polls , likely voters in Michigan have put Biden ahead of Trump 51 percent to 44 percent , while a Financial Times analysis of RealClearPolitics polling data gives Biden a 7.9 point lead .
• In Wisconsin , the Post-ABC polls favor Biden by a stunning 17 points , and again , the FT finding was more modest — a 6.8-point edge for the Biden .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ states , according to the Post-ABC , which found the Democrat is more trusted when it comes to the pandemic response than Trump .
There has also been a small recent shift in Biden ’ s favor in FiveThirtyEight ’ s polling average .
• In states that border Wisconsin , including Iowa and Minnesota , Biden is also polling well , according to a FiveThirtyEight analysis .
In Iowa , a RABA Research poll has Biden at 50 percent and Trump at 46 percent ; a Gravis Marketing survey has Biden carrying @ @ @ @ @ @ @ square with Change Research ’ s analysis .
Looking at 110,000 survey responses from a variety of polls between June and October , they found whether a state was experiencing a Covid-19 spike or not moved the election by 3 percentage points on average .
The trend even held for Trump supporters .
Overall , voters who favored Trump in 2016 and who are living in states with higher Covid-19 rates are about 50 percent more likely than voters in states where the virus is better controlled to support Biden in 2020 , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that Biden ’ s especially strong lead in Wisconsin is the result of people seeing the ineffectiveness of Trump ’ s policies in that state , ” Greenfield said .
We won ’ t really know the extent to which the spread of Covid-19 in swing states might influence the election until after November 3 — when all the ballots are counted .
Voting decisions are complicated , polls can mislead , and we ’ ll need more data to gauge how much coronavirus motivated decision-making .
At the same time , the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ issue , one that has deeply affected , and continues to affect , all voters ’ lives — how they give birth and say goodbye to loved ones who ’ ve died , how they work ( if they still work ) , shop for groceries , and whether their kids can go to school or college .
Most Americans are somewhat or very worried about both being infected by the virus and virus ’ s effects on the economy .
“ [ People in ] places that were hit hard or are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ be looking to some solutions for their day-to-day problems , ” said Amesh A. Adalja , a senior scholar at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security .
They “ may be looking to find a solution in the other candidate , ” he added .
From failing to get Covid-19 testing up and running , to sidelining America ’ s leading public health agency , to politicizing mask wearing and lying about the danger of the virus , the Trump administration has grossly mishandled the pandemic .
And these public health failures @ @ @ @ @ @ @ collateral damage from the virus : the stock market is cratering , there are record unemployment claims , people are losing their health insurance and homes , and more Americans are literally going hungry .
Rebuilding from the pandemic will take a war-time effort , at a moment when 1,000 Americans are dying each day from the disease .
“ It is not surprising to me that voters are recognizing the sheer incompetence of the current administration — some of it deliberate — at this task , ” Adalja added .
Days before @ @ @ @ @ @ @ about the reality of the pandemic .
“ We ’ re rounding the turn , ” he said at an October 25 rally in Lumberton , North Carolina .
“ Our numbers are incredible.
” Biden has cast himself as the candidate who will help America rebuild .
There ’ s no overstating the size of the challenge the former vice president faces in doing that — but he ’ s the candidate who is owning up to the scale of the problem , said Shannon Monnat , professor and co-director of the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Lab at Syracuse University .
“ The president has been asking Americans to deny what they see happening right in front of them , ” she added .
“ People are tired .
They want to see some leadership and a coordinated national coronavirus response.
” Will you help keep Vox free for all ?
The United States is in the middle of one of the most consequential presidential elections of our lifetimes .
It ’ s essential that all Americans are able to access clear , concise information on what the outcome @ @ @ @ @ @ @ lives , and the lives of their families and communities .
That is our mission at Vox .
But our distinctive brand of explanatory journalism takes resources .
Even when the economy and the news advertising market recovers , your support will be a critical part of sustaining our resource-intensive work .
If you have already contributed , thank you .
If you haven ’ t , please consider helping everyone understand this presidential election : Contribute today from as little as $ 3 .

The third — and largest — coronavirus wave is hitting the US just in time for the presidential election, with surges in key Midwestern swing states. Numerous polls suggest voters may be taking their pandemic pain and panic with them to the ballot boxes in these places: President Donald Trump isn’t just down in national polls — he’s faring especially poorly in battlegrounds where infection rates are spiking.
Over the last two weeks, the coronavirus case count in Wisconsin — where Trump won by a single percentage point in 2016 — has jumped 36 percent, to an average of 4,200 new infections per day. And that’s just among the people who’ve been diagnosed. The test positivity rate in the state is a staggering 28 percent, according to Covidexitstrategy.org, and health officials have already had to transform the state fair park into a field hospital to manage the crush of new patients.
The situation is nearly as worrisome in Michigan: Cases there have risen 73 percent in the last two weeks, to 2,600 per day, while the number of Covid-19 patients in hospital has more than doubled since the end of September. It’s another swing state, which Trump won by an even tinier margin — of 0.3 — in 2016.
In these places, and the states around them, the majority of voters apparently prefer Biden. That has mostly been the state of things for some time, but is perhaps even clearer as Election Day approaches. “Biden is doing well everywhere — but his leads are even more solid in places where the coronavirus is hitting the hardest,” said Mike Greenfield, the chief executive officer of Change Research, who has been tracking the impact of the pandemic on voter decision-making.
Consider the recent data:
According to a pair of Washington Post-ABC News polls, likely voters in Michigan have put Biden ahead of Trump 51 percent to 44 percent, while a Financial Times analysis of RealClearPolitics polling data gives Biden a 7.9 point lead.
have put Biden ahead of Trump 51 percent to 44 percent, while a Financial Times analysis of RealClearPolitics polling data gives Biden a 7.9 point lead. In Wisconsin , the Post-ABC polls favor Biden by a stunning 17 points, and again, the FT finding was more modest — a 6.8-point edge for the Biden. Registered voters also favor Biden in both states, according to the Post-ABC, which found the Democrat is more trusted when it comes to the pandemic response than Trump. There has also been a small recent shift in Biden’s favor in FiveThirtyEight’s polling average.
, the Post-ABC polls favor Biden by a stunning 17 points, and again, the FT finding was more modest — a 6.8-point edge for the Biden. Registered voters also favor Biden in both states, according to the Post-ABC, which found the Democrat is more trusted when it comes to the pandemic response than Trump. There has also been a small recent shift in Biden’s favor in FiveThirtyEight’s polling average. In states that border Wisconsin, including Iowa and Minnesota, Biden is also polling well, according to a FiveThirtyEight analysis. In Iowa, a RABA Research poll has Biden at 50 percent and Trump at 46 percent; a Gravis Marketing survey has Biden carrying Minnesota by 14 points.
These findings square with Change Research’s analysis. Looking at 110,000 survey responses from a variety of polls between June and October, they found whether a state was experiencing a Covid-19 spike or not moved the election by 3 percentage points on average.
The trend even held for Trump supporters. Overall, voters who favored Trump in 2016 and who are living in states with higher Covid-19 rates are about 50 percent more likely than voters in states where the virus is better controlled to support Biden in 2020, Change Research found.
“We suspect that Biden’s especially strong lead in Wisconsin is the result of people seeing the ineffectiveness of Trump’s policies in that state,” Greenfield said.
We won’t really know the extent to which the spread of Covid-19 in swing states might influence the election until after November 3 — when all the ballots are counted. Voting decisions are complicated, polls can mislead, and we’ll need more data to gauge how much coronavirus motivated decision-making.
At the same time, the pandemic has emerged as a key election issue, one that has deeply affected, and continues to affect, all voters’ lives — how they give birth and say goodbye to loved ones who’ve died, how they work (if they still work), shop for groceries, and whether their kids can go to school or college. Most Americans are somewhat or very worried about both being infected by the virus, and even more so, the virus’s effects on the economy.
Related How Trump could win the 2020 election through the Electoral College
“[People in] places that were hit hard or are currently being hit hard are going to be looking to some solutions for their day-to-day problems,” said Amesh A. Adalja, a senior scholar at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security. They “may be looking to find a solution in the other candidate,” he added.
From failing to get Covid-19 testing up and running, to sidelining America’s leading public health agency, to politicizing mask wearing and lying about the danger of the virus, the Trump administration has grossly mishandled the pandemic. And these public health failures don’t even account for the collateral damage from the virus: the stock market is cratering, there are record unemployment claims, people are losing their health insurance and homes, and more Americans are literally going hungry. Rebuilding from the pandemic will take a war-time effort, at a moment when 1,000 Americans are dying each day from the disease and the US has reported a record 500,000-plus new cases in the past week
“It is not surprising to me that voters are recognizing the sheer incompetence of the current administration — some of it deliberate — at this task,” Adalja added.
Days before the election, Trump is still lying about the reality of the pandemic. “We’re rounding the turn,” he said at an October 25 rally in Lumberton, North Carolina. “Our numbers are incredible.”
Biden has cast himself as the candidate who will help America rebuild. There’s no overstating the size of the challenge the former vice president faces in doing that — but he’s the candidate who is owning up to the scale of the problem, said Shannon Monnat, professor and co-director of the Policy, Place, and Population Health Lab at Syracuse University.
“The president has been asking Americans to deny what they see happening right in front of them,” she added. “People are tired. They want to see some leadership and a coordinated national coronavirus response.”