vox--2020-03-30--Understand the unfolding coronavirus pandemic with these Vox podcast episodes

The coronavirus outbreak that causes the Covid-19 illness continues to spread as a health threat across the globe .
As new coronavirus cases are discovered , questions keep popping up about how to prepare for an outbreak , how to travel , and the difference between quarantine , isolation , and social distancing — to name a few .
That ’ s where Vox podcasts come in .
From what it ’ s like to be quarantined with coronavirus to how prepared the US is set up to respond to this outbreak to how AI warned about coronavirus before the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , The Weeds , Worldy , Reset , and Recode Decode episodes will help you understand the situation as it unfolds .
Coronavirus has pushed US-China relations to their worst point since Mao March 30 , 2020 | The COVID-19 pandemic is a grim reminder that the worst really can happen .
Tail risk is real risk .
Political leaders fumble , miscalculate , and bluster into avoidable disaster .
And even as we try to deal with this catastrophe , the seeds of another are sprouting .
The US-China relationship will define @ @ @ @ @ @ @ we collapse into rivalry , conflict , and politically opportunistic nationalism , the results could be hellish .
And we are , right now , collapsing into rivalry , conflict , and politically opportunistic nationalism .
The Trump administration , and key congressional Republicans , are calling COVID-19 “ the Chinese virus , ” and trying to gin up tensions to distract from their domestic failures .
Chinese government officials , beset by their own domestic problems , are claiming the US military brought the virus to China .
The US-China relationship was @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , but this is a new level of threat .
Evan Osnos covers the US-China relationship for the New Yorker , and is author of the National Book Award winner , The Age of Ambition : Chasing Fortune , Truth and Faith in the New China .
In this conversation , we discuss the past , present and future of the US-China relationship .
What are the chances of armed conflict ?
What might deescalation look like ?
And we know what the US wants — what , in truth , does China @ @ @ @ @ @ @ What do we mean when we say “ airborne ?
” ; plus , the most important unanswered questions about how coronavirus is transmitted .
March 27 , 2020 | On today ’ s show , more listener questions : Why isn ’ t everyone social distancing ?
Will I be immune after I get it ?
When will this end ?
My anxiety is spiking !
March 27 , 2020 | Ezra and Matt analyze the huge but inadequate stimulus bill .
Deepak Chopra : “ If this doesn ’ t bring @ @ @ @ @ @ @ happens ” March 27 , 2020 | Dr. Deepak Chopra talks with Recode ’ s Kara Swisher about how to cope with the global threat posed by coronavirus , the parallel “ pandemic of panic , ” and how to not be overwhelmed by fear and anxiety .
Is the cure worse than the disease ?
March 26 , 2020 | “ We can not let the cure be worse than the problem itself !
” That was President Donald Trump , this week , explaining why he was thinking about lifting coronavirus @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The “ cure , ” in this case , is social distancing , and the mass economic stoppage it forces .
The problem , of course , is COVID-19 , and the millions of deaths it could cause .
This is a debate that needs to be taken seriously .
Slowing coronavirus will impose real costs , and immense suffering , on society .
Are those costs worth it ?
This is the most important public policy question right now .
And if the discussion isn ’ t had well , then it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ re already seeing , poorly , and dangerously .
What this coronavirus does to your body March 26 , 2020 | Why does it spread so easily ?
And could it mutate into something worse ?
The Atlantic ’ s Ed Yong explains the science so far .
March 25 , 2020 | Congress has settled on a historic stimulus package , but Ezra Klein is worried it might not be enough .
Chamath Palihapitiya : “ The investing landscape is done , ” taxes will go up , and a two-week lockdown @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Social Capital CEO Chamath Palihapitiya talks with Recode ’ s Kara Swisher about how long it will take to recover from the coronavirus crisis , its impact on startups , and how the US government should and will react — including by tracking individuals via their technology and repatriating cash from tech companies like Apple .
Palihapitiya says businesses should make sure they have at least 36 months worth of cash on hand to weather this recession and its slow recovery period and predicts the US will need to devote an entire year @ @ @ @ @ @ @ He criticizes the corporate “ shenanigans ” that will make economic recovery harder says he ’ s done investing for at least nine months , because anyone trying to do deals now will be “ decapitated.
” Plus : What we can all learn right now from the histories of the Great Depression and the 2008 financial crisis , and which industries will come out of this crisis stronger than before ?
March 24 , 2020 | Social Capital CEO Chamath Palihapitiya talks with Recode ’ s Kara Swisher about how long it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ crisis , its impact on startups , March 24 , 2020 | How the tech giant is responding to the pandemic , and what it says about Amazon as a company .
March 24 , 2020 | Jane , Dara , and Matt on the Defense Production Act , wartime mobilization , and pandemic-induced autarky .
March 23 , 2020 | Vox ’ s Julia Belluz went from covering the global coronavirus pandemic to giving birth in the middle of it .
( Transcript here . )
Learn more about your ad choices @ @ @ @ @ @ @ we ’ ve never seen March 23 , 2020 | “ What is happening , ” writes Annie Lowrey , “ is a shock to the American economy more sudden and severe than anyone alive has ever experienced.
” It ’ s also different from what anyone alive has ever experienced .
For many of us , the Great Recession is the closest analogue — but it ’ s not analogous at all .
There , the economy ’ s potential was unchanged , but financial markets were in crisis .
Here , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ order to slow a public health crisis .
Early data suggests the economic crisis is going to far exceed any single week or quarter of the financial crisis .
Multiple economists have told Ezra Klein that the nearest analogy to what we ’ re going through is the economy during World War II .
“ I have a secret advantage when trying to understand moments of economic upheaval .
I ’ m married to Annie Lowrey , ” writes Ezra Klein .
“ I can give you the bio — staff writer at @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Money ( which is proving particularly prophetic and influential right now ) — but suffice to say she ’ s one of the clearest and most brilliant economic thinkers I know .
Her viral piece on the affordability crisis is crucial for understanding what the economy really looked like before Covid-19 , and she ’ s been doing some of the best work on the way Covid-19 will worsen the economic problems we had and create a slew of new ones .
But this isn ’ t just a conversation about crisis .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ how to respond .
I wouldn ’ t call it hopeful — we ’ re not there yet .
But constructive.
” The biggest experiment in online learning , ever March 22 , 2020 | COVID-19 has shut schools all over the country , and millions of American students are now learning at home , online .
Are online tools enough to make up for lost classroom time ?
March 20 , 2020 | On today ’ s show , we answer listener ’ s questions : Why is there no TP ?
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ Can I get the virus from sex ?
Should I finally write my will ?
How can I help ?
How quickly can we treat covid-19 ?
March 19 , 2020 | The scientific community is moving at unprecedented speed to develop a way to treat COVID-19 .
But how soon can a treatment or a vaccine be available to the public ?
March 19 , 2020 | Vox ’ s Brian Resnick ( safely ) meets Sean in a Washington , D.C. park to deliver the Five Commandments of social distancing .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ people are ” March 19 , 2020 | Ron Klain served as the chief of staff to vice presidents Al Gore and Joe Biden .
In 2014 , President Barack Obama tapped him to lead the administration ’ s response to the Ebola outbreak in West Africa .
He successfully oversaw a hellishly complex effort preparing domestically for an outbreak and surging health resources onto another continent to contain the disease .
But Klain is quick to say that the coronavirus is a harder challenge even than Ebola .
The economy is in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ told to shelter in place .
And there ’ s no telling how long any of this will last .
In this conversation , Klain answers Ezra Klein ’ s questions about the disease and how to respond to it , as well as questions many of you submitted .
TFW your dad gives you Covid-19 March 18 , 2020 | Sean speaks to a Brooklyn family that has Covid-19 , and Vox ’ s Dylan Scott explains how the United States is still trying to get its act together on testing .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ Dara , and Matt discuss President Trump ’ s new more serious tone and competing economic stimulus proposals .
March 17 , 2020 | After dismissing coronavirus concerns for months , President Donald is pivoting to serious action to slow the crisis in the United States .
March 16 , 2020 | The country ’ s largest school district told a million kids to stay home during the coronavirus pandemic .
It ’ s creating chaos for teachers , students , and parents .
Maggie Haberman : How coronavirus changes everything for President @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Haberman , the White House correspondent for the New York Times , talks with Recode ’ s Kara Swisher about how the rest of the country has bypassed Trump ’ s failure to lead on the coronavirus outbreak ; his exposure to COVID-19 at Mar-a-Lago and refusal to self-quarantine ; and the toxic cocktail of practices in his administration : Infighting , tiptoeing , and sucking up .
She also discusses CDC director Anthony Fauci ’ s “ unimpeachable ” credibility vs. President Trump ’ s trust problem , how Vice President Pence @ @ @ @ @ @ @ coronavirus task force , and how this period could have a bigger impact on Trump ’ s re-election chances than previous crises .
Plus : Who is actually running things at the White House right now , and can Trump operate his campaign without mass rallies ?
March 14 , 2020 | Ezra and Matt on dueling pandemic response plans from Sanders and Biden , and Trump ’ s disastrous speech .
March 14 , 2020 | Italy has quarantined the whole country in an effort to slow the spread of coronavirus .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ the US might look like Italy soon .
Ron Klain : The coronavirus outbreak is just getting started in the US March 13 , 2020 | Epidemic co-host Ron Klain , who led the White House ’ s ebola response under President Obama , talks to Recode ’ s Kara Swisher about how the COVID-19 outbreak will strain America ’ s healthcare system ; how President Trump downplayed the crisis , rattling public confidence and delaying the country ’ s response ; and the way people who work in the gig economy — @ @ @ @ @ @ @ — will be especially hurt by the situation .
He also discusses the logic behind travel bans and limits of their efficacy , why it ’ s impossible for the US to completely cut itself off from China , and what Trump didn ’ t say in his Oval Office address , but should have .
Klain , an adviser and former chief of staff to Joe Biden , also talks about the ex-vice president ’ s surprisingly successful presidential campaign and how it ’ s reckoning with Biden ’ s history of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ coronavirus March 12 , 2020 | President Trump has banned most Europeans from traveling to the US .
Vox ’ s Jen Kirby explains why that won ’ t stop the novel coronavirus from spreading , and Eliza Barclay tells us what we can do to slow the spread .
Every country for itself March 12 , 2020 | Zack , Jenn , and Alex record an episode on coronavirus from their respective homes , under self-isolation .
They talk about the politics of Trump ’ s ban on European travel to the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ seems to be neglecting to help Italy in its time of need .
They also explain how the virus has led to a massive drop in oil prices — and why , at this particular time , this could seriously destabilize political systems around the world .
March 10 , 2020 | The stock market ’ s going haywire .
Major companies are telling their employees to stay home .
Austin has canceled SXSW .
Vox ’ s Matthew Yglesias says governments across the world have to act fast to save the global @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The cost of China ’ s high-tech response to contain the coronavirus .
So you think you have Covid-19 March 6 , 2020 | Thus far , the United States hasn ’ t been doing the best job of testing for the novel coronavirus .
ProPublica ’ s Caroline Chen explains why .
March 5 , 2020 | Can we stop the spread of coronavirus misinformation on social media ?
Covid-19 , explained by Carl ( who has it ) March 3 , 2020 | Carl Goldman was on the Diamond Princess cruise @ @ @ @ @ @ @ He speaks to Sean Rameswaram from a CDC quarantine in Omaha , Nebraska .
February 18 , 2020 | One coronavirus .
Two cruise ships .
Lots of mistakes .
The Japanese case shows us that quarantining people on a cruise ship to stop the spread of Covid-19 can backfire , while the Cambodia case suggests that letting people disembark and disperse around the world can create a public health nightmare .
Find out what these cruise ship emergencies reveal about the largest outbreak .
February 13 , 2020 | Zack Beauchamp and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the coronavirus outbreak in China : Why the Chinese government botched the initial response , why Chinese citizens are so angry about it , and the reasons why the problems with this response are inherent to the current Chinese governance model .
They then debate the claim from many analysts that this is the most serious crisis for China ’ s regime since the 1989 Tiananmen Square uprising — and the ( low ) probability that this could trigger another revolution-minded uprising .
How will the coronavirus outbreak end ?
February 6 , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Menachery said a SARS-like virus could spread to humans more easily than previously believed .
Now he explains what we can do to stop it .
An AI warned about coronavirus before the CDC February 4 , 2020 | How AI could predict the next big outbreak .
You can check out our guide to news of the coronavirus outbreak here .

The coronavirus outbreak that causes the Covid-19 illness continues to spread as a health threat across the globe. As new coronavirus cases are discovered, questions keep popping up about how to prepare for an outbreak, how to travel, and the difference between quarantine, isolation, and social distancing — to name a few.
That’s where Vox podcasts come in. From what it’s like to be quarantined with coronavirus to how prepared the US is set up to respond to this outbreak to how AI warned about coronavirus before the CDC, the following Today, Explained, The Weeds, Worldy, Reset, and Recode Decode episodes will help you understand the situation as it unfolds.
How coronavirus is impacting education
April 23, 2020 | Teachers and students are still struggling with online education.
Conspiracy-19
April 23, 2020 | Vox’s science editor, Eliza Barclay, arms you with the facts you need to fight your uncle’s favorite coronavirus conspiracy theories.
This one’s for Earth
April 22, 2020 | Cryptic treehunters. Unknown apples. Flowers fighting back. On the 50th anniversary of Earth Day, Vox’s Umair Irfan and Brian Resnick explain what we learned about the planet in the last year.
Opening up
April 21, 2020 | Dara, Jane, and Matt on conservatives’ desire for a rapid reopening of American businesses, and a ‘feel good’ white paper about air pollution.
The 5G coronavirus conspiracy theory
April 21, 2020 | A coronavirus conspiracy theory has led to arson attacks in the UK. And - how to talk to friends and family about coronavirus misinformation.
One day, three healthcare workers
April 21, 2020 | A nurse, a paramedic, and a physician’s assistant record themselves throughout the course of a day in the fight against Covid-19.
The epicenter of the epicenter
April 20, 2020 | Covid-19’s victims, and the people they leave behind.
The year 2038 problem
April 19, 2020 | What’s the deal with January 19th, 2038? Why remembering Y2K correctly matters.
Help is on the way (sort of)
April 17, 2020 | Ezra and Matt break down the implementation problems that have bedeviled the CARES Act.
Long shot
April 17, 2020 | It could be a year or more before the vaccine is ready, but there’s a radical plan to speed up the process.
Contact Tracing, Explained
April 16, 2020 | Public health’s “tried and true” tactic against infectious disease, and how Google and Apple want to help end the lockdown.
Zeke Emanuel’s exit strategy
April 16, 2020 | President Trump wants to reopen the country yesterday. Bioethicist Zeke Emanuel, who served as a health policy advisor to former President Obama, offers a safe path.
Death Cab for The Postal Service?
April 15, 2020 | The United States Postal Service is on the brink of collapse. Vox’s Matthew Yglesias explains how and why the country should save it.
How indie bookstores might survive the pandemic
April 14, 2020 | There’s a new online bookseller in town that’s trying to save your local indie bookstore.
All praise, no pay
April 14, 2020 | Essential workers in the food, transportation, and retail industries are being called American heroes. They want to be paid as such.
The corporate bailout watchdog
April 14, 2020 | Congressional oversight committee member Bharat Ramamurti joins Matt to explain his new job and what’s wrong with shareholder capitalism.
Elizabeth Warren has a plan for this, too
April 13, 2020 | Friend of the show Ezra Klein speaks to Sen. Elizabeth Warren about several plans she has proposed to combat this pandemic.
The Internet Has a Crush on Dr. Fauci
April 12, 2020 | From fan pages to food pics, Dr. Anthony Fauci is everywhere. The Verge’s Makena Kelly explains the person behind the meme.
How does this end?
April 10, 2020 | Ezra and Matt review four major plans for after social distancing; plus the Democratic primary finally ends.
The loneliness pandemic
April 10, 2020 | Coronavirus has led to another pandemic: social isolation. Vox’s Ezra Klein says this sickness has a cure.
Six feet away from God
April 9, 2020 | While a few religious leaders flout shelter in place ordinances, Easter, Passover, and Ramadan are inspiring most to get creative with worship.
Toby Ord on existential risk, Donald Trump, and thinking in probabilities
April 9, 2020 | Oxford philosopher Toby Ord spent the early part of his career spearheading the effective altruism movement, founding Giving What We Can, and focusing his attention primarily on issue areas like global public health and extreme poverty. Ord’s new book The Precipice is about something entirely different: the biggest existential risks to the future of humanity. In it, he predicts that humanity has approximately a 1 in 6 chance of going completely extinct by the end of the 21st century. The coronavirus pandemic is a reminder that tail risk is real. We always knew a zoological respiratory virus could become a global pandemic. But, collectively, we didn’t want to think about it, and so we didn’t. The result is the reality we live in now.
But for all the current moment’s horror, there are worse risks than coronavirus out there. One silver lining of the current crisis might be that it gets us to take them seriously, and avert them before they become unstoppable. That’s what Ord’s book is about, and it is, in a strange way, a comfort.
This, then, is a conversation about the risks that threaten humanity’s future, and what we can do about them. It’s a conversation about thinking in probabilities, about the ethics of taking future human lives seriously, about how we weigh the risks we don’t yet understand.
Will your favorite restaurant survive?
April 9, 2020 | Why the pandemic is exposing the complicated relationship between delivery apps and restaurants and how a restaurateur and app developer is helping keep his industry alive.
Vote and die
April 8, 2020 | Wisconsinites had to choose between catching Covid-19 and voting on Tuesday. Is the rest of the country next?
Your phone knows if you’re staying at home
April 7, 2020 | And it is telling the government. The Verge’s Casey Newton explains how location data is helping fight coronavirus, and why even privacy advocates don’t think that’s such a bad thing. Featuring Casey Newton, Silicon Valley Editor at the Verge.
“The Great Equalizer”
April 7, 2020 | Madonna was wrong. Covid-19 isn’t an equalizer. It’s coming for America’s most vulnerable populations.
The immunity test
April 6, 2020 | A vaccine will take a while, but Vox’s Umair Irfan says the global effort to test for immunity and treat Covid-19 is well underway.
Elizabeth Warren has a plan for this, too
April 6, 2020 | In January, Sen. Elizabeth Warren was the first presidential candidate to release a plan for combatting coronavirus. In March, she released a second plan. Days later, with the scale of economic damage increasing, she released a third. Warren’s proposals track the spread of the virus: from a problem happening elsewhere and demanding a surge in global health resources to a pandemic happening here, demanding not just a public health response, but an all-out effort to save the US economy. Warren’s penchant for planning stands in particular stark contrast to this administration, which still has not released a clear coronavirus plan. There is no document you can download, no web site you can visit, that details our national strategy to slow the disease and rebuild the economy.
So I asked Warren to return to the show to explain what the plan should be, given the cold reality we face. We discussed what, specifically, the federal government should do; the roots of the testing debacle; her idea for mobilizing the economy around building affordable housing; why she thinks that this is exactly the right time to cancel student loan debt; why America spends so much money preparing for war and so little defending itself against pandemics and climate change; whether she thinks the Democratic primary focused on the wrong issues; and how this crisis is making a grim mockery of Ronald Reagan’s old saw about “the scariest words in the English language.”
The two types of tests we need to end this
April 5, 2020 | How testing technology will help end the spread of covid-19.
Mask on? Mask off?
April 3, 2020 | In an about-face, the Centers for Disease Control would now like you to cover your mouth and nose when you go outside.
Coronavirus meets health reform
April 3, 2020 | Ezra and Matt discuss Covid-19’s impact on insurance premiums, the case for single-payer, and more.
6.6 million more unemployed
April 2, 2020 | Last week’s unemployment numbers shattered all records. This week, they doubled. Vox’s Matthew Yglesias, host of The Weeds podcast, proposes a way out of this mess.
The race to make more ventilators
April 2, 2020 | Why life-saving ventilators for Covid-19 patients are in short supply, and how people like Dr. Richard Boyer are trying to fix that.
What social solidarity demands of us in a pandemic
April 2, 2020 | There is no doubt that social distancing is the best way to slow the spread of the coronavirus. But the efficacy of social distancing (or really any other public health measure) relies on something much deeper and harder to measure: social solidarity.
“Solidarity,” writes Eric Klinenberg, “motivates us to promote public health, not just our own personal security. It keeps us from hoarding medicine, toughing out a cold in the workplace or sending a sick child to school. It compels us to let a ship of stranded people dock in our safe harbors, to knock on our older neighbor’s door.” Klinenberg, a sociologist by trade, is the director of the Institute for Public Knowledge at New York University. His first book, Heat Wave, found that social connection was, at times, literally the difference between life and death during Chicago’s 1995 heat wave. Since then, he’s spent his career studying trends in American social life, from the rise of adults living alone to the importance of “social infrastructure” in holding together our civic bonds.
This conversation is about what happens when a country mired in a mythos of individualism collides with a pandemic that demands social solidarity and collective sacrifice. It’s about preventing an epidemic of loneliness and social isolation from overwhelming the most vulnerable among us. We discuss the underlying social trends that predated coronavirus, what kind of leadership it takes to actually bring people together, the irony of asking young people and essential workers to sacrifice for the rest of us, whether there’s an opportunity to build a different kind of society in the aftermath of Covid-19, and much more.
Lockdown while locked up
April 1, 2020 | Arthur Longworth calls Sean from Washington State Reformatory to explain what it’s like to serve a life sentence at a prison where the coronavirus is spreading.
There’s no social distancing in Animal Crossing
March 31, 2020 | Nintendo’s new game New Horizons has become a place to escape the reality of a global pandemic, gather with friends online - and even get married.
The trouble with Trump’s daily briefings
March 31, 2020 | Part rally, part media-bashing, part critical updates on the coronavirus crisis, President Trump’s daily press briefings are muddying the message.
Coronavirus has pushed US-China relations to their worst point since Mao
March 30, 2020 | The COVID-19 pandemic is a grim reminder that the worst really can happen. Tail risk is real risk. Political leaders fumble, miscalculate, and bluster into avoidable disaster. And even as we try to deal with this catastrophe, the seeds of another are sprouting.
The US-China relationship will define geopolitics in the 21st century. If we collapse into rivalry, conflict, and politically opportunistic nationalism, the results could be hellish. And we are, right now, collapsing into rivalry, conflict, and politically opportunistic nationalism.
The Trump administration, and key congressional Republicans, are calling COVID-19 “the Chinese virus,” and trying to gin up tensions to distract from their domestic failures. Chinese government officials, beset by their own domestic problems, are claiming the US military brought the virus to China. The US-China relationship was in a bad way six months ago, but this is a new level of threat.
Evan Osnos covers the US-China relationship for the New Yorker, and is author of the National Book Award winner, The Age of Ambition: Chasing Fortune, Truth and Faith in the New China. In this conversation, we discuss the past, present and future of the US-China relationship. What are the chances of armed conflict? What might deescalation look like? And we know what the US wants — what, in truth, does China want?
Airborne, Explained
March 29, 2020 | What do we mean when we say “airborne?”; plus, the most important unanswered questions about how coronavirus is transmitted.
Your coronavirus questions, answered (Part II)
March 27, 2020 | On today’s show, more listener questions: Why isn’t everyone social distancing? Will I be immune after I get it? When will this end? My anxiety is spiking!
When $2 trillion isn’t enough
March 27, 2020 | Ezra and Matt analyze the huge but inadequate stimulus bill.
Deepak Chopra: “If this doesn’t bring us together, then we deserve whatever happens”
March 27, 2020 | Dr. Deepak Chopra talks with Recode’s Kara Swisher about how to cope with the global threat posed by coronavirus, the parallel “pandemic of panic,” and how to not be overwhelmed by fear and anxiety.
Is the cure worse than the disease?
March 26, 2020 | “We cannot let the cure be worse than the problem itself!” That was President Donald Trump, this week, explaining why he was thinking about lifting coronavirus guidelines earlier than public-health experts recommended. The “cure,” in this case, is social distancing, and the mass economic stoppage it forces. The problem, of course, is COVID-19, and the millions of deaths it could cause.
This is a debate that needs to be taken seriously. Slowing coronavirus will impose real costs, and immense suffering, on society. Are those costs worth it? This is the most important public policy question right now. And if the discussion isn’t had well, then it will be had, as we’re already seeing, poorly, and dangerously.
What this coronavirus does to your body
March 26, 2020 | Why does it spread so easily? And could it mutate into something worse? The Atlantic’s Ed Yong explains the science so far.
The two trillion dollar question
March 25, 2020 | Congress has settled on a historic stimulus package, but Ezra Klein is worried it might not be enough.
Chamath Palihapitiya: “The investing landscape is done,” taxes will go up, and a two-week lockdown is inevitable
March 25, 2020 | Social Capital CEO Chamath Palihapitiya talks with Recode’s Kara Swisher about how long it will take to recover from the coronavirus crisis, its impact on startups, and how the US government should and will react — including by tracking individuals via their technology and repatriating cash from tech companies like Apple. Palihapitiya says businesses should make sure they have at least 36 months worth of cash on hand to weather this recession and its slow recovery period and predicts the US will need to devote an entire year’s GDP to combat covid-19. He criticizes the corporate “shenanigans” that will make economic recovery harder says he’s done investing for at least nine months, because anyone trying to do deals now will be “decapitated.” Plus: What we can all learn right now from the histories of the Great Depression and the 2008 financial crisis, and which industries will come out of this crisis stronger than before?
Asia’s second wave
March 24, 2020 | Social Capital CEO Chamath Palihapitiya talks with Recode’s Kara Swisher about how long it will take to recover from the coronavirus crisis, its impact on startups,
Is Amazon primed for coronavirus?
March 24, 2020 | How the tech giant is responding to the pandemic, and what it says about Amazon as a company.
Fighting coronavirus with corporate conscription
March 24, 2020 | Jane, Dara, and Matt on the Defense Production Act, wartime mobilization, and pandemic-induced autarky.
Giving birth in a pandemic
March 23, 2020 | Vox’s Julia Belluz went from covering the global coronavirus pandemic to giving birth in the middle of it. (Transcript here.) Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
An economic crisis like we’ve never seen
March 23, 2020 | “What is happening,” writes Annie Lowrey, “is a shock to the American economy more sudden and severe than anyone alive has ever experienced.”
It’s also different from what anyone alive has ever experienced. For many of us, the Great Recession is the closest analogue — but it’s not analogous at all. There, the economy’s potential was unchanged, but financial markets were in crisis. Here, we are purposefully freezing economic activity in order to slow a public health crisis. Early data suggests the economic crisis is going to far exceed any single week or quarter of the financial crisis. Multiple economists have told Ezra Klein that the nearest analogy to what we’re going through is the economy during World War II.
“I have a secret advantage when trying to understand moments of economic upheaval. I’m married to Annie Lowrey,” writes Ezra Klein. “I can give you the bio — staff writer at the Atlantic, author of Give People Money (which is proving particularly prophetic and influential right now) — but suffice to say she’s one of the clearest and most brilliant economic thinkers I know. Her viral piece on the affordability crisis is crucial for understanding what the economy really looked like before Covid-19, and she’s been doing some of the best work on the way Covid-19 will worsen the economic problems we had and create a slew of new ones. But this isn’t just a conversation about crisis. It’s also a conversation about how to respond. I wouldn’t call it hopeful — we’re not there yet. But constructive.”
The biggest experiment in online learning, ever
March 22, 2020 | COVID-19 has shut schools all over the country, and millions of American students are now learning at home, online. Are online tools enough to make up for lost classroom time?
Your coronavirus questions, answered
March 20, 2020 | On today’s show, we answer listener’s questions: Why is there no TP? Will we run out of food? Can I get the virus from sex? Should I finally write my will? How can I help?
How quickly can we treat covid-19?
March 19, 2020 | The scientific community is moving at unprecedented speed to develop a way to treat COVID-19. But how soon can a treatment or a vaccine be available to the public?
Six feet away
March 19, 2020 | Vox’s Brian Resnick (safely) meets Sean in a Washington, D.C. park to deliver the Five Commandments of social distancing.
“The virus is more patient than people are”
March 19, 2020 | Ron Klain served as the chief of staff to vice presidents Al Gore and Joe Biden. In 2014, President Barack Obama tapped him to lead the administration’s response to the Ebola outbreak in West Africa. He successfully oversaw a hellishly complex effort preparing domestically for an outbreak and surging health resources onto another continent to contain the disease.
But Klain is quick to say that the coronavirus is a harder challenge even than Ebola. The economy is in free fall. Entire cities have been told to shelter in place. And there’s no telling how long any of this will last. In this conversation, Klain answers Ezra Klein’s questions about the disease and how to respond to it, as well as questions many of you submitted.
TFW your dad gives you Covid-19
March 18, 2020 | Sean speaks to a Brooklyn family that has Covid-19, and Vox’s Dylan Scott explains how the United States is still trying to get its act together on testing.
Rescuing the economy from coronavirus
March 17, 2020 | Jane, Dara, and Matt discuss President Trump’s new more serious tone and competing economic stimulus proposals.
Can President Trump fix this?
March 17, 2020 | After dismissing coronavirus concerns for months, President Donald is pivoting to serious action to slow the crisis in the United States.
School’s out for Covid
March 16, 2020 | The country’s largest school district told a million kids to stay home during the coronavirus pandemic. It’s creating chaos for teachers, students, and parents.
Maggie Haberman: How coronavirus changes everything for President Trump
March 16, 2020 | Maggie Haberman, the White House correspondent for the New York Times, talks with Recode’s Kara Swisher about how the rest of the country has bypassed Trump’s failure to lead on the coronavirus outbreak; his exposure to COVID-19 at Mar-a-Lago and refusal to self-quarantine; and the toxic cocktail of practices in his administration: Infighting, tiptoeing, and sucking up.
She also discusses CDC director Anthony Fauci’s “unimpeachable” credibility vs. President Trump’s trust problem, how Vice President Pence is doing at the helm of the coronavirus task force, and how this period could have a bigger impact on Trump’s re-election chances than previous crises. Plus: Who is actually running things at the White House right now, and can Trump operate his campaign without mass rallies?
Weeds 2020: The coronavirus election
March 14, 2020 | Ezra and Matt on dueling pandemic response plans from Sanders and Biden, and Trump’s disastrous speech.
Living in lockdown
March 14, 2020 | Italy has quarantined the whole country in an effort to slow the spread of coronavirus. Vox’s Julia Belluz explains why the US might look like Italy soon.
Ron Klain: The coronavirus outbreak is just getting started in the US
March 13, 2020 | Epidemic co-host Ron Klain, who led the White House’s ebola response under President Obama, talks to Recode’s Kara Swisher about how the COVID-19 outbreak will strain America’s healthcare system; how President Trump downplayed the crisis, rattling public confidence and delaying the country’s response; and the way people who work in the gig economy — including Uber drivers and food delivery workers — will be especially hurt by the situation. He also discusses the logic behind travel bans and limits of their efficacy, why it’s impossible for the US to completely cut itself off from China, and what Trump didn’t say in his Oval Office address, but should have. Klain, an adviser and former chief of staff to Joe Biden, also talks about the ex-vice president’s surprisingly successful presidential campaign and how it’s reckoning with Biden’s history of verbal flubs.
How to slow down coronavirus
March 12, 2020 | President Trump has banned most Europeans from traveling to the US. Vox’s Jen Kirby explains why that won’t stop the novel coronavirus from spreading, and Eliza Barclay tells us what we can do to slow the spread.
Every country for itself
March 12, 2020 | Zack, Jenn, and Alex record an episode on coronavirus from their respective homes, under self-isolation. They talk about the politics of Trump’s ban on European travel to the US and explore why the European Union seems to be neglecting to help Italy in its time of need. They also explain how the virus has led to a massive drop in oil prices — and why, at this particular time, this could seriously destabilize political systems around the world.
Coronavirus hits the markets
March 10, 2020 | The stock market’s going haywire. Major companies are telling their employees to stay home. Austin has canceled SXSW. Vox’s Matthew Yglesias says governments across the world have to act fast to save the global economy.
Does stopping coronavirus require more surveillance?
March 10, 2020 | The cost of China’s high-tech response to contain the coronavirus.
So you think you have Covid-19
March 6, 2020 | Thus far, the United States hasn’t been doing the best job of testing for the novel coronavirus. ProPublica’s Caroline Chen explains why.
The coronavirus rumor mill
March 5, 2020 | Can we stop the spread of coronavirus misinformation on social media?
Covid-19, explained by Carl (who has it)
March 3, 2020 | Carl Goldman was on the Diamond Princess cruise ship and now he has Covid-19. He speaks to Sean Rameswaram from a CDC quarantine in Omaha, Nebraska.
The floating petri dish
February 18, 2020 | One coronavirus. Two cruise ships. Lots of mistakes. The Japanese case shows us that quarantining people on a cruise ship to stop the spread of Covid-19 can backfire, while the Cambodia case suggests that letting people disembark and disperse around the world can create a public health nightmare. Find out what these cruise ship emergencies reveal about the largest outbreak.
Could coronavirus collapse Chinese communism?
February 13, 2020 | Zack Beauchamp and Alex Ward talk about the politics of the coronavirus outbreak in China: Why the Chinese government botched the initial response, why Chinese citizens are so angry about it, and the reasons why the problems with this response are inherent to the current Chinese governance model. They then debate the claim from many analysts that this is the most serious crisis for China’s regime since the 1989 Tiananmen Square uprising — and the (low) probability that this could trigger another revolution-minded uprising.
How will the coronavirus outbreak end?
February 6, 2020 | In 2015, Dr. Vineet Menachery said a SARS-like virus could spread to humans more easily than previously believed. Now he explains what we can do to stop it.
An AI warned about coronavirus before the CDC
February 4, 2020 | How AI could predict the next big outbreak.
You can check out our guide to news of the coronavirus outbreak here.


vox--2020-03-30--N.K. Jemisin’s new book begins with a virus in New York. Somehow, it’s a joyous read.

In The City We Became , the new novel by N.K .
Jemisin , an infection is spreading across New York City .
It spreads rapidly from person to person , and its goal is nothing less than to destroy everything that makes New York a living , breathing , vital organism .
To leave it a husk of itself .
The City We Became is strange to read right now in a way that Jemisin — the only person ever to win the prestigious Hugo Award three years in a row — could not possibly have predicted .
The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is a metaphor for colonialism and bigotry and white nationalism .
Meanwhile , the real New York City , where I live , has become the center of America ’ s coronavirus pandemic , and the literal infection here is casting existing bigotry and white nationalism into ever-sharper relief .
At times , it does feel as though coronavirus is threatening everything that makes New York a living , breathing , vital organism , and as though it will leave the city nothing but a husk of itself .
But as I read @ @ @ @ @ @ @ once thought , “ No , that ’ s too close , ” or , “ I ’ ll just wait and pick this book up in a year.
” It is an absorbing and joyful novel , and reading it didn ’ t just temporarily take me away from the reality of life during a pandemic .
It made me more hopeful that when the pandemic ebbs , the vital core of our communities will still remain .
The City We Became is the story of how New York City comes to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ cities are living beings .
But only some cities : those that have been around long enough to develop their own personalities , “ as more and more people come in and deposit their strangeness and leave and get replaced by others.
” And at the beginning of the novel , New York City is just at the point of coming to life .
Of being born .
Only there ’ s something else out there , an enemy that takes the form of a mysterious and ever-changing Woman in White .
And @ @ @ @ @ @ @ want any new cities to be born anywhere .
Once a city is born , it has an avatar , a living human being who is also the living city itself , and who is granted magical powers in order to defend the city from outside intruders .
But before New York City ’ s avatar can fully come into his power , something goes wrong .
He falls into a coma .
And in his absence , the Woman in White sneaks in , spreading her insidious reactionary politics across the city @ @ @ @ @ @ @ from ever truly coming to life .
Luckily , New York City is made up of smaller cities .
It has five boroughs , and each of those boroughs has an avatar of its own .
Now , it ’ s up to the avatars of the five boroughs to come together , stop the Woman in White , and make New York a living city once again .
The five avatars are the heart of The City We Became .
Each one symbolizes something unique to their particular borough , and their @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Manhattan is Manny , an amnesiac who ’ s forgotten everything he was before he set foot on his island .
He ’ s a charming but ruthless young black guy , and he manifests his magic powers by flashing cash around like a weapon .
Brooklyn is named Brooklyn , and she ’ s a middle-aged black woman who used to be a rapper and now sits on the city council ; her magic comes from music .
The Bronx is Bronca , an elderly Native artist who moonlights between teaching at @ @ @ @ @ @ @ local arts foundation , and Queens is Padmini Prakash , an immigrant grad student who loves pure math but is focusing on finance so she has a better chance of acquiring a work visa once she graduates .
Bronca ’ s power is rooted in Native traditions and histories ; Padmini ’ s comes from theoretical mathematics .
And then there is Staten Island , the resentful and forgotten borough , the borough that never really wanted to be a part of New York City in the first place .
In The City @ @ @ @ @ @ @ by Aislyn Houlihan , the daughter of an Irish cop who works part time at her local library .
Aislyn , whose power stems from her deep desire to be left alone , regards the rest of the city with suspicion and fear .
It is , as the Woman in White tells her , a place of “ bad jobs and worse pay , and prancing manbunned baristas who turn up their noses at making just a simple goddamned coffee , and prissy chink bitches who barely speak English but make seven @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ) , and feminists and Jews and trannies and nnnnnnNegroes and liberals , libtards everywhere , making the world safe for every kind of pervert.
” And for their part , the other avatars can barely be bothered to remember that Staten Island even exists .
There is a crack in New York City ’ s unity , one the Woman in White eagerly exploits it as she marshals alt-righters and gentrifiers and racist cops together to keep New York from ever reaching its true potential .
Normally , new books by big-name @ @ @ @ @ @ @ at the trade conference BookExpo , which takes place every year in New York City ’ s Javits Center at the end of May .
But this year ’ s BookExpo is postponed , and instead the Javits Center is filled with beds : It ’ s been transformed into an emergency hospital .
So has Central Park .
This week , a Navy hospital ship sailed past the Statue of Liberty into New York Harbor , passing directly beneath Vox ’ s ( empty ) New York office on the way .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ though it is on the verge of collapse .
But The City We Became is not a book about how New York falls apart .
It ’ s a love letter to the city ’ s resilience , and to all the ways it overcomes hatred to rise up stronger than it was before .
And by extension , it ’ s about the rest of us , and the ways in which we must all work together to protect and support one another .
It will give you faith that New York @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and so can all the rest of us , too .

In The City We Became, the new novel by N.K. Jemisin, an infection is spreading across New York City. It spreads rapidly from person to person, and its goal is nothing less than to destroy everything that makes New York a living, breathing, vital organism. To leave it a husk of itself.
The City We Became is strange to read right now in a way that Jemisin — the only person ever to win the prestigious Hugo Award three years in a row — could not possibly have predicted. The infection in her fantasy New York City is a metaphor for colonialism and bigotry and white nationalism. Meanwhile, the real New York City, where I live, has become the center of America’s coronavirus pandemic, and the literal infection here is casting existing bigotry and white nationalism into ever-sharper relief. At times, it does feel as though coronavirus is threatening everything that makes New York a living, breathing, vital organism, and as though it will leave the city nothing but a husk of itself.
But as I read The City We Became, I never once thought, “No, that’s too close,” or, “I’ll just wait and pick this book up in a year.” It is an absorbing and joyful novel, and reading it didn’t just temporarily take me away from the reality of life during a pandemic. It made me more hopeful that when the pandemic ebbs, the vital core of our communities will still remain.
The City We Became is the story of how New York City comes to life
In The City We Became, cities are living beings. But only some cities: those that have been around long enough to develop their own personalities, “as more and more people come in and deposit their strangeness and leave and get replaced by others.” And at the beginning of the novel, New York City is just at the point of coming to life. Of being born.
Rating: 4 out of 5 vox-mark vox-mark vox-mark vox-mark vox-mark
Only there’s something else out there, an enemy that takes the form of a mysterious and ever-changing Woman in White. And the Woman in White doesn’t want any new cities to be born anywhere.
Once a city is born, it has an avatar, a living human being who is also the living city itself, and who is granted magical powers in order to defend the city from outside intruders. But before New York City’s avatar can fully come into his power, something goes wrong. He falls into a coma. And in his absence, the Woman in White sneaks in, spreading her insidious reactionary politics across the city in an attempt to prevent the city from ever truly coming to life.
Luckily, New York City is made up of smaller cities. It has five boroughs, and each of those boroughs has an avatar of its own. Now, it’s up to the avatars of the five boroughs to come together, stop the Woman in White, and make New York a living city once again.
The five avatars are the heart of The City We Became. Each one symbolizes something unique to their particular borough, and their relationship is what drives everything forward.
Manhattan is Manny, an amnesiac who’s forgotten everything he was before he set foot on his island. He’s a charming but ruthless young black guy, and he manifests his magic powers by flashing cash around like a weapon. Brooklyn is named Brooklyn, and she’s a middle-aged black woman who used to be a rapper and now sits on the city council; her magic comes from music.
The Bronx is Bronca, an elderly Native artist who moonlights between teaching at a community college and ferociously defending her local arts foundation, and Queens is Padmini Prakash, an immigrant grad student who loves pure math but is focusing on finance so she has a better chance of acquiring a work visa once she graduates. Bronca’s power is rooted in Native traditions and histories; Padmini’s comes from theoretical mathematics.
And then there is Staten Island, the resentful and forgotten borough, the borough that never really wanted to be a part of New York City in the first place. In The City We Became, it’s embodied by Aislyn Houlihan, the daughter of an Irish cop who works part time at her local library.
Aislyn, whose power stems from her deep desire to be left alone, regards the rest of the city with suspicion and fear. It is, as the Woman in White tells her, a place of “bad jobs and worse pay, and prancing manbunned baristas who turn up their noses at making just a simple goddamned coffee, and prissy chink bitches who barely speak English but make seven figures gambling with your 401(k), and feminists and Jews and trannies and nnnnnnNegroes and liberals, libtards everywhere, making the world safe for every kind of pervert.” And for their part, the other avatars can barely be bothered to remember that Staten Island even exists.
There is a crack in New York City’s unity, one the Woman in White eagerly exploits it as she marshals alt-righters and gentrifiers and racist cops together to keep New York from ever reaching its true potential.
Normally, new books by big-name authors like Jemisin are showered with attention at the trade conference BookExpo, which takes place every year in New York City’s Javits Center at the end of May. But this year’s BookExpo is postponed, and instead the Javits Center is filled with beds: It’s been transformed into an emergency hospital. So has Central Park. This week, a Navy hospital ship sailed past the Statue of Liberty into New York Harbor, passing directly beneath Vox’s (empty) New York office on the way. The real New York City feels as though it is on the verge of collapse.
But The City We Became is not a book about how New York falls apart. It’s a love letter to the city’s resilience, and to all the ways it overcomes hatred to rise up stronger than it was before. And by extension, it’s about the rest of us, and the ways in which we must all work together to protect and support one another.
It will give you faith that New York can come back to itself again — and so can all the rest of us, too.


vox--2020-03-31--We can do it: A wartime-style mobilization to beat coronavirus and mass unemployment

A dangerous myth is taking hold in the United States that the country must decide between saving the economy at the expense of risking many additional Covid-19 deaths and a depression leading to double-digit unemployment .
Trump says that the cure for the virus can ’ t be more costly than the virus itself .
Others , like former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers , caution that the US must stick with stringent public health measures , but simply can ’ t fix the economy “ until we contain the virus.
” But this is a false choice .
The virus @ @ @ @ @ @ @ real .
But beyond the direct hit from the pandemic , the US is experiencing an economy-wide collapse in demand , as job losses lead to income losses which lead to reduced spending and further job losses .
There is a climate of concern , and people who haven ’ t lost jobs and incomes worry that they may do so soon and restrain their spending .
There is a pinch on state and local budgets that is causing cutbacks on front-line labor as there ’ s more , not less , work @ @ @ @ @ @ @ from the Federal Reserve last week and a big stimulus bill from Congress , the steps taken thus far are too small and too timid — like a series of mattresses to cushion the fall when the US needs a trampoline to bounce everyone back to full employment .
That ’ s not a job that can afford to wait until after the epidemiological crisis is solved any more than the Allies waited until after defeating Hitler to cure the Great Depression .
The US needs to beat the virus in part through @ @ @ @ @ @ @ people back to work .
America needs a strategy for recovery , not just rescue Businesses across the country have been forced to either shut down or dramatically curtail their activities because of the virus .
That inevitably leads to job losses and a declining stock market .
But if you broaden your set of economic indicators — including currencies ( where the dollar is getting stronger ) , commodities ( where everything from oil to corn to metal has gotten cheaper ) , to bonds ( where government interest rates have fallen @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are of slower price increases ) — you see a second story , a crisis of falling demand .
And though the measures taken by Congress and the Fed last week led to a clear improvement in the indicators , they weren ’ t nearly enough to address the crisis .
The US needs to take the analogy of wartime mobilization that ’ s been used by many leaders much more seriously and deliver trillions more in tax cuts and spending increases to stimulate demand .
Much of that spending should be aimed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the goods and services the US needs to continue coping with a virus that , even if successfully contained , is not going to vanish soon .
To cope with the twin crises of economics and public health , the US will need substantial investment in the production of personal protective equipment for health care workers , but may also need production of masks and gloves for the public .
It will need a huge infusion of funds to state and local governments so they can continue to provide — even expand — @ @ @ @ @ @ @ research in spades , and we ’ ll need income support to households and businesses as they struggle to adapt to a new world of doing things in less-efficient more socially distant ways .
And to support it all , the US needs a creative and flexible Federal Reserve willing to adopt a wartime mentality to finance .
Economic policy can ’ t fix everything , but it can fix a lot A few years ago Christina Romer , formerly the chair of the White House Council of Economic Advisers under President Obama @ @ @ @ @ @ @ favorite paper about macroeconomics .
It ’ s called “ The Most Dangerous Idea in Federal Reserve History : Monetary Policy Doesn ’ t Matter.
” In the paper the Romers review three tragic episodes in American economic history — the early phases of the Great Depression , the Great Inflation of the 1970s , and the extended Great Recession that began in 2008 and left us with labor market weakness that lingered up until the moment when coronavirus hit .
They show that in each of these episodes , policymakers convinced themselves @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the situation , there was nothing more that they could do on the demand side of the economy .
In 1930 , for example , as the Great Depression gathered , George Norris of the Philadelphia Federal Reserve spoke against the idea of extra stimulus .
In his view , the real problem was the extraordinary stock market bubble of the 1920s .
“ The consequences of such an economic debauch , ” he argued to other Fed officials , “ are inevitable .
We are now suffering them .
Can they be @ @ @ @ @ @ @ We do not believe that they can.
” In the 1970s , the problem was inflation rather than mass unemployment .
And William Miller , then chair of the Federal Reserve , insisted that it wasn ’ t his problem to solve , telling Congress that “ an effective program to reduce the rate of inflation had to extend beyond monetary policy ” and instead focus on deregulatory and anti-union policy “ designed to enhance competition and to correct structural problems.
” And in the wake of the Great Recession , distinguished economists @ @ @ @ @ @ @ why labor force growth was persistently slow , even at one point deciding that advances in video game quality rather than a weak job market were to blame .
But in the first two instances , once policymakers — President Franklin Roosevelt in the case of the Great Depression , Fed Chair Paul Volcker in the case of inflation — actually accepted responsibility for solving the problem , they took action by abandoning the gold standard in the former case and with painful but relatively brief spikes in interest rates in the latter @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a decisive turning point , but exactly as the Romers predicted , over time growing demand just kept pushing the job numbers up steadily throughout both the Obama and Trump presidencies .
So I was alarmed to see something Christina Romer told my colleague Ezra Klein : What Romer is saying is that the US needs humanitarian relief to help people who can ’ t work , rather than expecting stimulus to create jobs .
But that ’ s a huge overstatement .
She teaches at UC Berkeley in California , which is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in the country .
Yet restaurants in Berkeley are not closed — many of them are offering food for pickup or delivery .
The novelists Ayelet Waldman and Michael Chabon announced on Twitter a plan to buy 25 meals a week from local restaurants to give to nearby hospital workers — a nice gesture for the community .
And one thing that makes it a nice gesture , of course , is that lots of people are constrained in the number of restaurant meals they can consume by their income .
It ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of affluent people who eat out frequently who are going to be cutting back for non-financial reasons during this crisis .
But it ’ s a big mistake to think that everyone is in that boat , or that the US has to simply give up on the idea of keeping people engaged in meaningful work .
Signs of demand shortfall are everywhere Even in the midst of the current crisis , some companies are hiring .
Instacart says they ’ re looking to add 300,000 staff as demand for grocery delivery picks @ @ @ @ @ @ @ going to hire 100,000 new people and Domino ’ s Pizza expects to add 10,000 more workers .
A crisis for some is an opportunity for others .
And in an appropriately stimulated economy , workers laid off from some sectors would gain new jobs in others .
But something I ’ ve noticed in my Washington , DC , neighborhood is that even though supermarkets and hardware stores are still open , they are curtailing hours rather than expanding them .
Prudent people are trying to shop at the least-crowded possible times @ @ @ @ @ @ @ typically at odd hours .
The Whole Foods in my neighborhood is normally open from 7 am to 10 pm .
The store has established special hours for people ages 60 and older , from 6 am to 7 am , and it is closing early at 9 pm .
In a healthier economic environment , the store would be opening early and closing late — adding shifts to cover those times and adding workers to do extra cleaning and disinfecting .
This might lead to price increases for some retail goods , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ commodities and the fuel to get things shipped .
Nobody likes to see high prices .
But that ’ s what you ’ d expect to see from an appropriately stimulated economy — overall stable or slightly rising inflation as total spending levels stay steady even though the virus is disrupting exactly what people spend money on .
Instead , aggregate spending is collapsing .
Recode ’ s Peter Kafka reports that even as news consumption is soaring , the advertising market is shrinking .
BuzzFeed News announced across-the-board salary cuts .
This @ @ @ @ @ @ @ companies to shut down or making it impossible to buy laptops .
It ’ s the secondary and tertiary demand impacts that are creating a generalized economic crisis .
How to fix the problem : Spend , mobilize , recalibrate Congress has declared victory and gone home , but it ’ s important for leaders in both parties to stay engaged .
They need to keep monitoring the situation and continue passing new stimulative measures until there are clear indications that things have gone far enough on the demand side .
That ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ lot more money out the door .
Secondarily , the federal government needs to mobilize the country to address the virus — working with private industry , but also plenty of pushing cash out to state and local governments to do things .
Last but by no means least , the Federal Reserve— the American government ’ s premiere demand-management agency — needs to commit to allowing a small spurt of inflation if that ’ s what it takes to ride this crisis out , and to extending maximum support to whatever the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ spend money on .
Chair Jay Powell ’ s announcements last week pointed in that direction , but everyone would benefit from a clear and consistent statement from the central bank that it supports fully and swiftly returning to full employment , even if it means a temporarily elevated pace of price increases .
If people look back on the year 2020 and see that the big problem was 4 percent inflation , rather than mass unemployment or the widespread collapse of hospital systems , that ’ s a victory .
At the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Trump was said to be interested in a major payroll tax cut .
Eventually he got talked out of that by Democrats who argued , correctly , that generous unemployment insurance benefits and flat cash transfers to households should be higher priorities .
That was the right judgment , but with demand still not fully stabilized , it would make sense to go back and look at the payroll tax issue .
The kind of companies that are still enjoying healthy sales — from giants like Target to the little hardware store across @ @ @ @ @ @ @ be more likely to expand staff and rehire some newly unemployed workers if employer-side payroll taxes fell .
Employers whose businesses have been hurt by the crisis but who aren ’ t forced into closure by it will , similarly , have an easier time avoiding layoffs if they get a tax break .
Meanwhile , the millions of Americans who haven ’ t lost their jobs but are dealing with unusually difficult working conditions , complicated child care situations , and other problems could use a boost from a worker-side payroll tax @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to that , it could also make sense to do more rounds of cutting universal checks .
Even while maintaining fairly severe social distancing , reasonable people might want to splurge on home exercise equipment , new toys and activities for kids , better equipment for your home office , or remote consultations with medical doctors or psychotherapists .
Deliver the goods and services people need The political controversy du jour is Trump ’ s reluctance to invoke the Defense Production Act ( DPA ) and secure critically needed ventilators and personal protective @ @ @ @ @ @ @ He should do all that .
But the government at all levels should also acknowledge that our wartime production needs are broader than the most critical supplies .
The acute shortage of N95 respirators facing medical personnel treating Covid-19 patients obviously needs to be fixed first .
But instead of managing the shortage by telling the public surgical masks aren ’ t useful , the US ought to make more masks and widen the circle of people who get them .
The gap between our current situation — where front-line health personnel can @ @ @ @ @ @ @ need — and a realm where everyone is amply provisioned with masks and gloves for routine use is huge .
Filling that gap will be a hard problem .
But it ’ s the opposite of the problem of having too many workers with nothing left for them to do .
The US needs to be looking at all appropriate tools to get newly unemployed people into manufacturing masks and gloves .
That probably means some mix of DPA edicts , direct subsidies for production , and government guarantees that they will purchase @ @ @ @ @ @ @ crisis ends up ending sooner than expected .
But beyond medical equipment , we are looking at a reasonably extended period of time in which people should be consuming more soap , hand sanitizer , disinfecting sprays and wipes , and lotion .
Especially once the US is able to move beyond the most severe lockdown measures , we ’ re going to need lots of household cleaning supplies .
And that means we ’ ll need more personnel and industrial capacity to make them .
Congress should also directly infuse state and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to run things properly .
Mass transit agencies are being crushed by falling ridership and have started curtailing service .
Distancing best practice , however , is that transit agencies should run ample service even as commuter loads fall so that trains and buses can stay as uncrowded as possible , even while vehicles are disinfected frequently .
This isn ’ t financially viable for local governments , but the federal government can make it viable , and in doing so support public health and employment at the same time .
More broadly @ @ @ @ @ @ @ coronavirus pandemic is that the pathogen is fairly easy to kill with soap and other normal cleaning supplies .
High-touch surfaces in playgrounds , benches , and other public space could and perhaps should be routinely disinfected as part of a transitional strategy to getting things partially opened up again .
The barrier to doing that is simply cost .
But that ’ s just another way of saying the virus hasn ’ t eliminated our need for labor .
There is plenty for workers to do instead of being unemployed , as @ @ @ @ @ @ @ unemployment as inevitable .
Rather than it being necessary to completely fix the health situation before the US can heal the economy , mobilizing idled workers should be part of how to get the health situation under control .
But to undergird it all , Americans need a cooperative central bank .
The question of Federal Reserve action is intimately linked to the inevitable question of whether the country can really afford to engage in stimulus on this level .
And the answer is yes .
Since the 1951 Fed/Treasury Accord , the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of the American government .
But as Jessica Romero of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond recounts in his history of the accord , “ during World War II and its aftermath the Federal Reserve did not enjoy such independence.
” Instead , “ at the request of the Department of the Treasury , the Federal Reserve formally committed to maintaining a low interest-rate peg of 3/8 percent on short-term Treasury bills .
The Fed also implicitly capped the rate on long-term Treasury bonds at 2.5 percent.
” The point of this was @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the government to borrow the money it would need to fight and win the war .
Current interest rates are less than half of where they were set as an emergency wartime finance measure , and the Fed has announced that it ’ s willing to engage in unlimited purchases of government bonds “ to support smooth market functioning and effective transmission of monetary policy to broader financial conditions and the economy.
” What ’ s further needed from the Fed is a clearer statement of the goals of its activity .
In @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s overwhelming focus has been on ensuring that inflation stays near-but-below a target of 2 percent .
To support an adequate recovery , the Fed should state clearly that its goal is to help fiscal authorities fully eliminate any shortfall in demand .
That means as long as the virus is with us , we should be willing to see inflation rise above 2 percent levels , as you would expect to see in an economy suffering from a supply-side problem .
A lot of commercial transactions , even when they restart @ @ @ @ @ @ @ slightly cumbersome ways with more emphasis on delivery , uncrowded spaces , and lots of disinfecting .
That will mean a higher cost structure , higher prices , and lower economic output — real economic problems that stimulative policy can ’ t fix and that will ameliorate only as testing , treatment , and vaccination will improve .
But it won ’ t have to mean mass unemployment or a chilling choice between overwhelmed hospitals and a depression .
The corners of the economic policy world I follow are spending a lot of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ theories about how deadly Covid-19 really is and how useful lockdown-type policies really are in combating it .
These are important questions , and in these uncertain times , I am also interested in them .
Trump has become personally enthusiastic about the prospects of using hydroxychloroquine , perhaps in combination with azithromycin , as a pharmaceutical treatment for Covid-19 .
( The research so far on the effectiveness of such treatment is preliminary and mixed . )
I hope some of that pans out , too , and it ’ s not @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on the epidemiological side .
But this also has an air of grasping at straws about it .
Both the human mind and the political system rebel at the idea that the current bleak economic picture Americans are seeing is our only alternative to a world with increasing sickness from a new virus .
We need to be clear-eyed , however : that false choice only exists because we aren ’ t thinking big enough about economic policy .
Both the virus itself and the public health countermeasures that have been put into @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the national economy .
But the financial market indicators we can see before our eyes are a clear indication that these costs are being exacerbated by a second wave of problems — demand-side problems — that are actually larger in scale than the problems on the supply side .
And unlike on the epidemiological side , the solutions to a demand crisis are actually very clear .
We are already poised to begin significant fiscal stimulus and that has helped .
But to get to where we need to be , we need @ @ @ @ @ @ @ cash into state and local government coffers , cut taxes on individuals and businesses , put money directly into the hands of the American people , and finance increased production of medical and household cleaning supplies .
A program like that won ’ t eliminate the economic costs of coronavirus .
Huge amounts of labor will be “ wasted ” on cleaning and re-cleaning surfaces , and manufacturing supplies that are swiftly used up and thrown away rather than building wealth .
But it will avoid mass unemployment , cascading waves of bankruptcies @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a depression .
And since the economic problems will be genuinely virus-related , they will go away whenever the medical situation improves — whether that ’ s because of improved testing , improved treatments , new findings that it ’ s not as deadly as we feared , or whatever else .
The problem with the demand shock is that it is currently bigger in economic terms than the supply-side impacts of the virus itself .
And — because it ’ s caused by policy failure rather than RNA strands replicating in our @ @ @ @ @ @ @ it goes away , even if there is a totally effective vaccine a year from now .
It ’ s time for economic policymakers to let the doctors , epidemiologists , and other public health officials do their jobs , and to start taking responsibility for doing their own work instead .
The virus is a fact we have to deal with .
The ongoing collapse in aggregate demand is a policy choice we can avoid .

A dangerous myth is taking hold in the United States that the country must decide between saving the economy at the expense of risking many additional Covid-19 deaths and a depression leading to double-digit unemployment.
Trump says that the cure for the virus can’t be more costly than the virus itself. Others, like former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers, caution that the US must stick with stringent public health measures, but simply can’t fix the economy “until we contain the virus.”
But this is a false choice. The virus’s hit to the economy is real. But beyond the direct hit from the pandemic, the US is experiencing an economy-wide collapse in demand, as job losses lead to income losses, which lead to reduced spending and further job losses. There is a climate of concern, and people who haven’t lost jobs and incomes worry that they may do so soon and restrain their spending. There is a pinch on state and local budgets that is causing cutbacks on front-line labor as there’s more, not less, work to do.
And despite frantic moves from the Federal Reserve last week and a big stimulus bill from Congress, the steps taken thus far are too small and too timid — like a series of mattresses to cushion the fall when the US needs a trampoline to bounce everyone back to full employment. That’s not a job that can afford to wait until after the epidemiological crisis is solved any more than the Allies waited until after defeating Hitler to cure the Great Depression. The US needs to beat the virus in part through a massive, deliberate mobilization that puts people back to work.
America needs a strategy for recovery, not just rescue
Businesses across the country have been forced to either shut down or dramatically curtail their activities because of the virus.
That inevitably leads to job losses and a declining stock market. But if you broaden your set of economic indicators — including currencies (where the dollar is getting stronger), commodities (where everything from oil to corn to metal has gotten cheaper), bonds (where government interest rates have fallen), and inflation (where expectations are of slower price increases) — you see a second story, a crisis of falling demand.
And though the measures taken by Congress and the Fed last week led to a clear improvement in the indicators, they weren’t nearly enough to address the crisis.
The US needs to take the analogy of wartime mobilization that’s been used by many leaders much more seriously and deliver trillions more in tax cuts and spending increases to stimulate demand. Much of that spending should be aimed at mobilizing workers and industry to provide the goods and services the US needs to continue coping with a virus that, even if successfully contained, is not going to vanish soon.
To cope with the twin crises of economics and public health, the US will need substantial investment in the production of personal protective equipment for health care workers, but may also need production of masks and gloves for the public. It will need a huge infusion of funds to state and local governments so they can continue to provide — even expand — needed services. It will need medical research in spades, and we’ll need income support for households and businesses as they struggle to adapt to a new world of doing things in less efficient, more socially distant ways. And to support it all, the US needs a creative and flexible Federal Reserve willing to adopt a wartime mentality to finance.
Economic policy can’t fix everything, but it can fix a lot
A few years ago, Christina Romer, who served as the chair of the White House Council of Economic Advisers under President Obama, and her husband David co-wrote my favorite paper about macroeconomics.
It’s called “The Most Dangerous Idea in Federal Reserve History: Monetary Policy Doesn’t Matter.” In the paper, the Romers review three tragic episodes in American economic history — the early phases of the Great Depression, the Great Inflation of the 1970s, and the extended Great Recession that began in 2008 and left America with labor market weakness that lingered up until the moment the coronavirus hit.
They show that in each of these episodes, policymakers convinced themselves that because of special unique attributes of the situation, there was nothing more that they could do on the demand side of the economy.
In 1930, for example, as the Great Depression gathered, George Norris of the Philadelphia Federal Reserve spoke against the idea of extra stimulus. In his view, the real problem was the extraordinary stock market bubble of the 1920s. “The consequences of such an economic debauch,” he argued to other Fed officials, “are inevitable. We are now suffering them. Can they be corrected or removed by cheap money? We do not believe that they can.”
In the 1970s, the problem was inflation rather than mass unemployment. And William Miller, then chair of the Federal Reserve, insisted that it wasn’t his problem to solve, telling Congress that “an effective program to reduce the rate of inflation had to extend beyond monetary policy” and instead focus on deregulatory and anti-union policy “designed to enhance competition and to correct structural problems.”
And in the wake of the Great Recession, distinguished economists started coming up with fanciful explanations for why labor force growth was persistently slow, even at one point deciding that advances in video game quality rather than a weak job market were to blame.
But in the first two instances, once policymakers — President Franklin Roosevelt in the case of the Great Depression, Fed Chair Paul Volcker in the case of inflation — actually accepted responsibility for solving the problem, they took action by abandoning the gold standard in the former case and with painful but relatively brief spikes in interest rates in the latter.
The Great Recession never had such a decisive turning point, but exactly as the Romers predicted, over time growing demand just kept pushing the job numbers up steadily throughout both the Obama and Trump presidencies.
So I was alarmed to see something Christina Romer told my colleague Ezra Klein:
“I feel like we need a new term for the kind of unemployment we’re going to have,” says Christina Romer, the Berkeley economist who led President Obama’s Council of Economic Advisers during the financial crisis. “It’s not cyclical unemployment. It’s quarantine unemployment. Businesses aren’t allowed to operate. People aren’t allowed to be out of their home. The idea that if you just give people money it’ll somehow prevent the unemployment rate from skyrocketing makes no sense. No amount of demand stimulus will get people to go to restaurants if they’re closed.”
What Romer is saying is that the US needs humanitarian relief to help people who can’t work, rather than expecting stimulus to create jobs.
But that’s a huge overstatement. She teaches at UC Berkeley in California, which is under some of the strictest lockdown orders in the country. Yet restaurants in Berkeley are not closed — many of them are offering food for pickup or delivery.
The novelists Ayelet Waldman and Michael Chabon announced on Twitter a plan to buy 25 meals a week from local restaurants to give to nearby hospital workers — a nice gesture for the community. And one thing that makes it a nice gesture, of course, is that lots of people are constrained in the number of restaurant meals they can consume by their income.
Do you run an East Bay restaurant? Once a week for as long as this lasts @michaelchabon and I will buy 25 meals from you and deliver them to the Highland Hospital ER staff. Cash for you, food for them! Win win! Email me at ayeletw@gmail.com. Spread the word. — Ayelet Waldman (@ayeletw) March 21, 2020
It’s also true that there are plenty of affluent people who eat out frequently who are going to be cutting back for non-financial reasons during this crisis. But it’s a big mistake to think that everyone is in that boat, or that the US has to simply give up on the idea of keeping people engaged in meaningful work.
Signs of demand shortfall are everywhere
Even in the midst of the current crisis, some companies are hiring. Instacart says it’s looking to add 300,000 staff as demand for grocery delivery picks up. Amazon says it’s going to hire 100,000 new people, and Domino’s Pizza expects to add 10,000 more workers.
A crisis for some is an opportunity for others. And in an appropriately stimulated economy, workers laid off from some sectors would gain new jobs in others. But something I’ve noticed in my Washington, DC, neighborhood is that even though supermarkets and hardware stores are still open, they are curtailing hours rather than expanding them.
Prudent people are trying to shop at the least crowded possible times in order to minimize human contact — typically at odd hours. The Whole Foods in my neighborhood is normally open from 7 am to 10 pm. The store has established special hours for people ages 60 and older, from 6 am to 7 am, and it is closing early at 9 pm. In a healthier economic environment, the store would be opening early and closing late — adding shifts to cover those times and adding workers to do extra cleaning and disinfecting.
This might lead to price increases for some retail goods, partially offsetting retailers’ reduced costs for commodities and the fuel to get things shipped. Nobody likes to see high prices. But that’s what you’d expect to see from an appropriately stimulated economy — overall stable or slightly rising inflation as total spending levels stay steady even though the virus is disrupting exactly what people spend money on.
Instead, aggregate spending is collapsing. Recode’s Peter Kafka reports that even as news consumption is soaring, the advertising market is shrinking. BuzzFeed News announced across-the-board salary cuts. This isn’t the virus forcing media companies to shut down or making it impossible to buy laptops. It’s the secondary and tertiary demand impacts that are creating a generalized economic crisis.
How to fix the problem: Spend, mobilize, recalibrate
Congress has declared victory and gone home, but it’s important for leaders in both parties to stay engaged. They need to keep monitoring the situation and continue passing new stimulative measures until there are clear indications that things have gone far enough on the demand side.
That’s going to mean primarily pushing a lot more money out the door.
Secondarily, the federal government needs to mobilize the country to address the virus — working with private industry, but also plenty of pushing cash out to state and local governments to do things.
Last but by no means least, the Federal Reserve— the American government’s premier demand-management agency — needs to commit to allowing a small spurt of inflation if that’s what it takes to ride out this crisis, and to extending maximum support to whatever the nation’s elected officials decide to spend money on.
Fed Chair Jay Powell’s announcements last week pointed in that direction, but everyone would benefit from a clear and consistent statement from the central bank that it supports fully and swiftly returning to full employment, even if it means a temporarily elevated pace of price increases. If people look back on the year 2020 and see that the big problem was 4 percent inflation, rather than mass unemployment or the widespread collapse of hospital systems, that’s a victory.
Push out more money
At the very beginning of the crisis, President Trump was said to be interested in a major payroll tax cut.
Eventually he got talked out of that by Democrats who argued that generous unemployment insurance benefits and flat cash transfers to households should be higher priorities. That was the right judgment, but with demand still not fully stabilized, it would make sense to go back and look at the payroll tax issue.
The kind of companies that are still enjoying healthy sales — from giants like Target to the little hardware store across the street from my house — would be more likely to expand staff and rehire some newly unemployed workers if employer-side payroll taxes fell. Employers whose businesses have been hurt by the crisis but who aren’t forced into closure by it will, similarly, have an easier time avoiding layoffs if they get a tax break.
Meanwhile, the millions of Americans who haven’t lost their jobs but are dealing with unusually difficult working conditions, complicated child care situations, and other problems could use a boost from a worker-side payroll tax cut.
Depending on the market reaction to that, it could also make sense to do more rounds of cutting universal checks. Even while maintaining fairly severe social distancing, reasonable people might want to splurge on home exercise equipment, new toys and activities for kids, better equipment for your home office, or remote consultations with medical doctors or psychotherapists.
Deliver the goods and services people need
The political controversy du jour is Trump’s reluctance to invoke the Defense Production Act (DPA) and secure critically needed ventilators and personal protective equipment for front-line health care workers. He should do all that. But the government at all levels should also acknowledge that our wartime production needs are broader than the most critical supplies. The acute shortage of N95 respirators facing medical personnel treating Covid-19 patients obviously needs to be fixed first. But instead of managing the shortage by telling the public surgical masks aren’t useful, the US ought to make more masks and widen the circle of people who get them.
The gap between our current situation — where front-line health personnel can’t get the basic equipment they need — and a realm where everyone is amply provisioned with masks and gloves for routine use is huge. Filling that gap will be hard. But it’s the opposite of the problem of having too many workers with nothing left for them to do. The US needs to be looking at all appropriate tools to get newly unemployed people into manufacturing masks and gloves. That probably means some mix of DPA edicts, direct subsidies for production, and guarantees that the government will purchase any “excess” supplies if the crisis ends up ending sooner than expected.
But beyond medical equipment, we are looking at a reasonably extended period of time in which people should be consuming more soap, hand sanitizer, disinfecting sprays and wipes, and lotion. Especially once the US is able to move beyond the most severe lockdown measures, we’re going to need lots of household cleaning supplies. And that means we’ll need more personnel and industrial capacity to make them.
Congress should also directly infuse state and local governments with the money they need to run things properly. Mass transit agencies are being crushed by falling ridership and have started curtailing service. Distancing best practice, however, is that transit agencies should run ample service even as commuter loads fall so that trains and buses can stay as uncrowded as possible, even while vehicles are disinfected frequently. This isn’t financially viable for local governments, but the federal government can make it viable, and in doing so support public health and employment at the same time.
More broadly, the one saving grace of the coronavirus pandemic is that the pathogen is fairly easy to kill with soap and other normal cleaning supplies. While surface spread is not thought to be the main vector of the coronavirus, high-touch surfaces in playgrounds, parks, and other public spaces could and perhaps should be routinely disinfected as part of a transitional strategy to getting things partially opened up again. The barrier to doing that is simply cost.
But that’s just another way of saying the virus hasn’t eliminated our need for labor. There is plenty for workers to do instead of being unemployed, as long as people refuse to accept mass unemployment as inevitable. Rather than it being necessary to completely fix the health situation before the US can heal the economy, mobilizing idled workers should be part of how to get the health situation under control.
Wartime central banking
But to undergird it all, Americans need a cooperative central bank.
The question of Federal Reserve action is intimately linked to the inevitable question of whether the country can really afford to engage in stimulus on this level. And the answer is yes.
Since the 1951 Fed/Treasury Accord, the Fed has operated independently of the rest of the American government. But as Jessica Romero of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond recounts in his history of the accord, “during World War II and its aftermath the Federal Reserve did not enjoy such independence.” Instead, “at the request of the Department of the Treasury, the Federal Reserve formally committed to maintaining a low interest-rate peg of 3/8 percent on short-term Treasury bills. The Fed also implicitly capped the rate on long-term Treasury bonds at 2.5 percent.”
The point of this was to make sure it was affordable for the government to borrow the money it would need to fight and win the war. Current interest rates are less than half of where they were set as an emergency wartime finance measure, and the Fed has announced that it’s willing to engage in unlimited purchases of government bonds “to support smooth market functioning and effective transmission of monetary policy to broader financial conditions and the economy.”
What’s further needed from the Fed is a clearer statement of the goals of its activity. In the past generation, the central bank’s overwhelming focus has been on ensuring that inflation stays near but below a target of 2 percent.
To support an adequate recovery, the Fed should state clearly that its goal is to help fiscal authorities fully eliminate any shortfall in demand. That means as long as the virus is with us, we should be willing to see inflation rise above 2 percent levels, as you would expect to see in an economy suffering from a supply-side problem.
A lot of commercial transactions, even when they restart, will have to be conducted in slightly cumbersome ways with more emphasis on delivery, uncrowded spaces, and lots of disinfecting. That will mean a higher cost structure, higher prices, and lower economic output — real economic problems that stimulative policy can’t fix and that will ameliorate only as testing, treatment, and vaccination will improve. But it won’t have to mean mass unemployment or a chilling choice between overwhelmed hospitals and a depression.
A depression is a choice
The corners of the economic policy world I follow are spending a lot of time playing armchair epidemiologist and debating various theories about how deadly Covid-19 really is and how useful lockdown-type policies really are in combating it.
Current estimates of the coronavirus fatality rate may be too high by orders of magnitude, write Profs. Eran Bendavid and Jay Bhattacharya from @StanfordMed https://t.co/5zIfFWK1Ko via @WSJ — David Andolfatto (@dandolfa) March 25, 2020
I reproduced by average-growth-in-last-week graph, but this time for COVID deaths instead of cases.
Can you spot which places had lockdowns? Because tbh I cannot. pic.twitter.com/hnW5AKVbnD — Lyman Expand the House Stone, AKA 石來民 (@lymanstoneky) March 25, 2020
These are important questions, and in these uncertain times, I am also interested in them. Trump has become personally enthusiastic about the prospects of using hydroxychloroquine, perhaps in combination with azithromycin, as a pharmaceutical treatment for Covid-19. (The research so far on the effectiveness of such treatment is preliminary and mixed.)
I hope some of that pans out, too, and it’s not unreasonable to try to maintain some optimism on the epidemiological side.
But this also has an air of grasping at straws about it. Both the human mind and the political system rebel at the idea that the current bleak economic picture Americans are seeing is our only alternative to a world with increasing sickness from a new virus.
We need to be clear-eyed, however: That false choice only exists because we aren’t thinking big enough about economic policy. Both the virus itself and the public health countermeasures that have been put into place to combat it are costly to the national economy. But the financial market indicators we can see are a clear indication that these costs are being exacerbated by a second wave of problems — demand-side problems — that are actually larger in scale than the problems on the supply side.
And unlike on the epidemiological side, the solutions to a demand crisis are actually very clear.
We are already poised to begin significant fiscal stimulus, and that has helped. But to get to where we need to be, we need to do even more — put more cash into state and local government coffers, cut taxes on individuals and businesses, put money directly into the hands of the American people, and finance increased production of medical and household cleaning supplies.
A program like that won’t eliminate the economic costs of coronavirus. Huge amounts of labor will be “wasted” on cleaning and re-cleaning surfaces, and manufacturing supplies that are swiftly used up and thrown away rather than building wealth. But it will avoid mass unemployment, cascading waves of bankruptcies, and the other miseries associated with a depression. And since the economic problems will be genuinely virus-related, they will go away whenever the medical situation improves — whether that’s because of improved testing, improved treatments, new findings that it’s not as deadly as we feared, or whatever else.
The problem with the demand shock is that it is currently bigger in economic terms than the supply-side impacts of the virus itself. And — because it’s caused by policy failure rather than RNA strands replicating in our cells — there’s no guarantee it goes away, even if there is a totally effective vaccine a year from now.
It’s time for economic policymakers to let the doctors, epidemiologists, and other public health officials do their jobs, and to start taking responsibility for doing their own work instead. The virus is a fact we have to deal with. The ongoing collapse in aggregate demand is a policy choice we can avoid.
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