vox--2020-07-18--Inception is the most imperfect of perfect movies. 10 years later, I still love it.

It ’ s been a minute since July 2010 , so you might have forgotten just how fully Inception embedded itself within the cultural consciousness — almost as if someone had invaded our collective hivemind and planted it there .
Christopher Nolan ’ s gauzy , not-quite-lucid dream-heist thriller was basically ubiquitous for much of the first half of the 2010s .
Inception memes were absolutely everywhere : memes of Leonardo DiCaprio squinting at things , of spinning tops , of the dulcet tones of then-newcomer Tom Hardy telling us we mustn ’ t be afraid to dream a little @ @ @ @ @ @ @ dahling , ” by the way , was improvised . )
The giant BRAAAAAWWWWWMMMMMM !
noise made famous by the film ’ s trailer kept popping up throughout pop culture in parody after parody .
South Park did Inception .
The Simpsons did Inception .
College Humor did Inception .
Troy didn ’ t get Inception !
The last time I saw the movie during its original theatrical run , one member of the audience let out a garbled , performative cry of frustration as its instantly famous final moment played out .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ itself become a meme .
With such a deep level of cultural saturation , it ’ s easy to only remember the Inception we collectively created , while forgetting about just how weird and iconoclastic the film itself is .
But as Inception celebrates its 10th anniversary , the movie , in all its imperfect perfection , still tempts us to look beyond the memes and “ go deeper.
” Inception is so much weirder than you might remember Most Inception fans fixate on its sci-fi premise and its many unanswerable questions , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s maze of a plot .
The premise — through collective lucid dreaming , you can build dreamscapes and enter other people ’ s minds — is so snazzy that people get seduced by it .
But Inception ’ s plot is really just a lure for the film ’ s obsession with the psychological labyrinths we build for ourselves .
The story of Cobb ( DiCaprio ) , a tormented widower who ’ s fallen in with a clandestine ring of international dream thieves , is sometimes surprisingly nuanced ; at @ @ @ @ @ @ @ as the train wreck that occasionally plows through our hero ’ s subconscious , reminding us that Cobb is an unreliable narrator of his own reality .
Sometimes Inception is a star vehicle determined to spread DiCaprio ’ s man-pain all over the place in giant caps-locked maze font ; other times , it ’ s a quirky , utterly engrossing ensemble film , with Oscar winners and A-listers like DiCaprio , Marion Cotillard , and Michael Caine all wedged in alongside a coterie of fresh faces : Hardy , Ellen Page , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Rao , Ken Watanabe , and Talulah Riley .
The whole ensemble takes turns aiding Cobb in his far-fetched scheme to return home to his children and a life of normalcy by pulling off the fabled One Last Job of every heist story .
But this particular job involves switching up the usual dream-thief gig of “ extraction ” — pulling data from a subject ’ s mind like the NSA wiretapping a brain — and performing “ inception ” instead : planting an idea instead of removing one .
This plot involves @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of it unexplained .
( One tiny thing out of hundreds that always gets me is the team ’ s ability to use walkie-talkies in dreams .
There ’ s no plausible explanation for this .
I look for answers , but will I ever receive them ?
No .
Thanks for nothing , Nolan . )
For all that Nolan ’ s dreamscape is a wild , wondrous vision of a world where anything can happen and anyone can build anything , it ’ s tempered by boxy amber-greige set design that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ almost always looks like the executive meeting level of a Hilton .
“ We both wanted a house but we loved this type of building , ” Cobb explains at one point , while showing off a dream house that looks like something you ’ d expect to find in Duluth .
In another moment , Cobb introduces his son : “ That ’ s James .
He ’ s digging for something .
Maybe a worm.
” The script is full of amazing clunkers like this .
“ What is the most @ @ @ @ @ @ @ client earlier on .
“ A bacterial infection ?
An intestinal worm ?
” Much has been said about the reading of Inception as a metaphor for filmmaking , but if Cobb is a director , he ’ s Herzog filming Fitzcarraldo — off the map and hazardous to everyone including himself .
The script of Inception underscores this with lines that frequently veer into absurdism .
That nobody ever really dinged Inception or Nolan for these flaws is a testament to all the other stuff that ’ s going on , which @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the hollowness of Cobb ’ s plot .
Indeed , there ’ s so much happening in the margins of Inception that DiCaprio often gets sidelined — not because the film ’ s plot isn ’ t ponderously , painstakingly centered on him , but because Inception is bursting with 1,000 mysteries large and small .
There ’ s the gaping military backstory behind the creation of dreamsharing , with all its incumbent sci-fi gadgetry and hand-waved exposition .
The unexplained Egon Schiele painting that ’ s explicitly pointed out but that seems @ @ @ @ @ @ @ den where dozens of men dream their lives away in what now feels like an eerie harbinger of the opioid crisis .
The faceless men who show up to track Cobb through funhouse-maze streets and then are never seen again .
The tyrannical businessman whose son clings to a Citizen Kane moment from his childhood that may never have been real at all .
The fact that Hardy ’ s character , Eames , plans most of the heist entirely by himself while Cobb ... circles things with markers !
Presiding over all @ @ @ @ @ @ @ : Cobb ’ s dead wife , Mal , the madwoman in the attic of his subconscious , the figure who may or may not be the minotaur at the center of a maze .
Within the hardy and endearingly durable Inception fandom , where Cobb is frequently cast aside as a minor character , female fanfic writers have spent the past decade reclaiming Mal Cobb ( whose name is a play on “ malady , ” THANKS , NOLAN ) , inverting Cobb ’ s story and making Mal his savior rather @ @ @ @ @ @ @ not so much a testament to Nolan ’ s writing as it is to his vision .
He created a world that serves as a metaphor for world-building itself .
Of course a bunch of fanfiction writers found a home in it .
It ’ s all of these other , flexible elements that make Inception a film I can watch an infinite number of times .
Because honestly , I don ’ t think Inception is necessarily a good movie , but I do think it ’ s a great movie .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ miracle — a movie built fundamentally on nonsense , with a terrible script and enough plot holes to be a permanent tease — yet one that satisfies on every conceivable level .
Sure , on one of those levels , I ’ m constantly tormenting myself with eternal technical questions .
( If Yusuf sped up the normal dose of Somnacin to be 20 times faster than real time instead of the typical 12 times , so that they could lucid dream three layers down , then technically the whole job only lasted @ @ @ @ @ @ @ what does the team do on the top level after the van crash for the roughly two weeks of dream time they have to fill up for the rest of the plane ride ?
Yes , I have been wondering this for a decade ! )
But on another level , I ’ m kicking back and enjoying the ensemble dynamic , the masterful production , and the fun of it all .
No matter how frustrating I find Cobb to be as a character , no matter how weak and implausible I @ @ @ @ @ @ @ watch Inception , by the time he hits the airport and Zimmer ’ s gorgeous “ Time ” kicks in on the soundtrack , I ’ m rooting for him , holding my breath every step , wanting him to get his happy ending despite everything .
Most of Inception ’ s plot may be built on nonsense , but a movie that can make you care about all that nonsense and bullshit is the essence of moviemaking — a Hollywood dream within a Hollywood dream .
One Good Thing is Vox ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , find one more thing from the world of culture that we highly recommend .
Every day at Vox , we aim to answer your most important questions and provide you , and our audience around the world , with information that has the power to save lives .
Our mission has never been more vital than it is in this moment : to empower you through understanding .
Vox ’ s work is reaching more people than ever , but our distinctive brand of explanatory journalism takes resources — particularly during a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ financial contribution will not constitute a donation , but it will enable our staff to continue to offer free articles , videos , and podcasts at the quality and volume that this moment requires .
Please consider making a contribution to Vox today .

It’s been a minute since July 2010, so you might have forgotten just how fully Inception embedded itself within the cultural consciousness — almost as if someone had invaded our collective hivemind and planted it there.
Christopher Nolan’s gauzy, not-quite-lucid dream-heist thriller was basically ubiquitous for much of the first half of the 2010s. Inception memes were absolutely everywhere: memes of Leonardo DiCaprio squinting at things, of spinning tops, of the dulcet tones of then-newcomer Tom Hardy telling us we mustn’t be afraid to dream a little bigger, dahlings. (The “dahling,” by the way, was improvised.) The giant BRAAAAAWWWWWMMMMMM! noise made famous by the film’s trailer kept popping up throughout pop culture in parody after parody. South Park did Inception. The Simpsons did Inception. College Humor did Inception. Troy didn’t get Inception!
The last time I saw the movie during its original theatrical run, one member of the audience let out a garbled, performative cry of frustration as its instantly famous final moment played out. In hardly any time, Inception had itself become a meme.
With such a deep level of cultural saturation, it’s easy to only remember the Inception we collectively created, while forgetting about just how weird and iconoclastic the film itself is. But as Inception celebrates its 10th anniversary, the movie, in all its imperfect perfection, still tempts us to look beyond the memes and “go deeper.”
Inception is so much weirder than you might remember
Most Inception fans fixate on its sci-fi premise and its many unanswerable questions, while they get lost in the movie’s maze of a plot. The premise — through collective lucid dreaming, you can build dreamscapes and enter other people’s minds — is so snazzy that people get seduced by it. But Inception’s plot is really just a lure for the film’s obsession with the psychological labyrinths we build for ourselves. The story of Cobb (DiCaprio), a tormented widower who’s fallen in with a clandestine ring of international dream thieves, is sometimes surprisingly nuanced; at others, it’s as unsubtle as the train wreck that occasionally plows through our hero’s subconscious, reminding us that Cobb is an unreliable narrator of his own reality.
Sometimes Inception is a star vehicle determined to spread DiCaprio’s man-pain all over the place in giant caps-locked maze font; other times, it’s a quirky, utterly engrossing ensemble film, with Oscar winners and A-listers like DiCaprio, Marion Cotillard, and Michael Caine all wedged in alongside a coterie of fresh faces: Hardy, Ellen Page, Joseph Gordon-Levitt, Cillian Murphy, Dileep Rao, Ken Watanabe, and Talulah Riley. The whole ensemble takes turns aiding Cobb in his far-fetched scheme to return home to his children and a life of normalcy by pulling off the fabled One Last Job of every heist story. But this particular job involves switching up the usual dream-thief gig of “extraction” — pulling data from a subject’s mind like the NSA wiretapping a brain — and performing “inception” instead: planting an idea instead of removing one.
This plot involves a fantastical amount of dreamscape-building, much of it unexplained. (One tiny thing out of hundreds that always gets me is the team’s ability to use walkie-talkies in dreams. There’s no plausible explanation for this. I look for answers, but will I ever receive them? No. Thanks for nothing, Nolan.) For all that Nolan’s dreamscape is a wild, wondrous vision of a world where anything can happen and anyone can build anything, it’s tempered by boxy amber-greige set design that, even at its most gorgeous, almost always looks like the executive meeting level of a Hilton. “We both wanted a house but we loved this type of building,” Cobb explains at one point, while showing off a dream house that looks like something you’d expect to find in Duluth.
In another moment, Cobb introduces his son: “That’s James. He’s digging for something. Maybe a worm.” The script is full of amazing clunkers like this. “What is the most resilient parasite?” Cobb asks a client earlier on. “A bacterial infection? An intestinal worm?”
Seriously.
Much has been said about the reading of Inception as a metaphor for filmmaking, but if Cobb is a director, he’s Herzog filming Fitzcarraldo — off the map and hazardous to everyone including himself. The script of Inception underscores this with lines that frequently veer into absurdism.
That nobody ever really dinged Inception or Nolan for these flaws is a testament to all the other stuff that’s going on, which is constantly dragging our attention away from the hollowness of Cobb’s plot. Indeed, there’s so much happening in the margins of Inception that DiCaprio often gets sidelined — not because the film’s plot isn’t ponderously, painstakingly centered on him, but because Inception is bursting with 1,000 mysteries large and small.
There’s the gaping military backstory behind the creation of dreamsharing, with all its incumbent sci-fi gadgetry and hand-waved exposition. The unexplained Egon Schiele painting that’s explicitly pointed out but that seems to mean nothing. The updated opium den where dozens of men dream their lives away in what now feels like an eerie harbinger of the opioid crisis. The faceless men who show up to track Cobb through funhouse-maze streets and then are never seen again. The tyrannical businessman whose son clings to a Citizen Kane moment from his childhood that may never have been real at all. The fact that Hardy’s character, Eames, plans most of the heist entirely by himself while Cobb ... circles things with markers!
Presiding over all this is the biggest mystery of all: Cobb’s dead wife, Mal, the madwoman in the attic of his subconscious, the figure who may or may not be the minotaur at the center of a maze. Within the endearingly durable Inception fandom, where Cobb is frequently cast aside as a minor character, female fanfic writers have spent the past decade reclaiming Mal Cobb (whose name is a play on “malady,” THANKS, NOLAN), inverting Cobb’s story and making Mal his savior rather than his demon. Their subversion is not so much a testament to Nolan’s writing as it is to his vision. He created a world that serves as a metaphor for world-building itself. Of course a bunch of fanfiction writers found a home in it.
It’s all of these other, flexible elements that make Inception a film I can watch an infinite number of times. Because honestly, I don’t think Inception is necessarily a good movie, but I do think it’s a great movie. To me, Inception is a minor miracle — a movie built fundamentally on nonsense, with a terrible script and enough plot holes to be a permanent tease — yet one that satisfies on every conceivable level. Sure, on one of those levels, I’m constantly tormenting myself with eternal technical questions. (If Yusuf sped up the normal dose of Somnacin to be 20 times faster than real time instead of the typical 12 times, so that they could lucid dream three layers down, then technically the whole job only lasted about six minutes in reality, so what does the team do on the top level after the van crash for the roughly two weeks of dream time they have to fill up for the rest of the plane ride? Yes, I have been wondering this for a decade!)
But on another level, I’m kicking back and enjoying the ensemble dynamic, the masterful production, and the fun of it all. No matter how frustrating I find Cobb to be as a character, no matter how weak and implausible I find the writing, every time I watch Inception, by the time he hits the airport and Zimmer’s gorgeous “Time” kicks in on the soundtrack, I’m rooting for him, holding my breath every step, wanting him to get his happy ending despite everything.
Most of Inception’s plot may be built on nonsense, but a movie that can make you care about all that nonsense and bullshit is the essence of moviemaking — a Hollywood dream within a Hollywood dream.
One Good Thing is Vox’s recommendations feature. In each edition, find one more thing from the world of culture that we highly recommend.


vox--2020-07-18--Progressives don’t love Joe Biden, but they’re learning to love his agenda

Progressive groups overwhelmingly favored confrontational leftists like Bernie Sanders or Elizabeth Warren during the 2020 primary campaign .
And many pretty clearly favored younger , more diverse rising stars like Kamala Harris and Pete Buttigieg over Joe Biden .
Biden , after all , is not only a paid-up member of the “ establishment , ” he ’ s a veteran of the long shadow cast over American politics by Richard Nixon and Ronald Reagan — a guy who voted in favor of the invasion of Iraq , of multiple pieces of legislation deregulating the banking industry , of the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the “ tough on crime ” 1994 criminal justice bill .
Biden is now the presumptive nominee , but progressives still fundamentally do not see him or his team as kindred spirits .
Many , however , are becoming more optimistic about Bidenism .
His platform is in many ways a surprisingly progressive approach to policy that the left sees as a triumph of their own work in trying to change the terms of debate in American politics .
Biden “ envisions a massive public sector role for job creation , ” points @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Sanders ’ s 2016 campaign .
He doesn ’ t think Biden has suddenly become a left-wing hero .
But he credits Biden , Biden ’ s team , and mainstream Democrats more broadly with “ understanding that in Covid times there needs to be thinking about bold practical measures.
” Republicans have so far failed in their attempt to convince moderate voters that Biden is a socialist snake in the grass .
Even as broader American society sees a genuine upsurge of left-wing radicalism both in the streets and in the realm @ @ @ @ @ @ @ continues to hold that he is closer to the middle ground than President Donald Trump .
Republicans have been reduced to trying to argue that Biden is just a Trojan horse for other far more left-wing figures in the party .
But it ’ s an argument that founders since Americans just watched Biden win an extended primary campaign in which he was repeatedly assailed for failing to meet various progressive litmus tests .
Biden won the primary handily by convincingly slapping a moderate label on a policy agenda that is nonetheless far @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Obama or proposed by Hillary Clinton in 2016 .
“ That ’ s his genius now , ” one pillar of the Democratic establishment who ’ d initially preferred several younger candidates from the moderate lane told me .
Biden is not progressives ’ champion : He does not push the envelope in the ways that they want , and he has not endorsed their most ambitious ideas .
But public opinion has been shifting leftward , and Biden ’ s thinking has shifted with it , creating a platform that progressives are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ the most progressive platform of any Democratic nominee in the modern history of the party , ” Waleed Shahid , communications director for Justice Democrats , a group famous ( or infamous ) for backing left-wing challengers to incumbent congressional Democrats , tells me .
They also see his approach as a triumph of sorts in changing the scope of what is acceptable to discuss in national politics .
The “ Overton window ” came up repeatedly .
The idea is that at any given time , only a certain set of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , and where the contours of that window are located has meaningful impact on political outcomes .
Ideas like Medicare-for-all , a Green New Deal , defunding the police , and wealth taxation did not win in the primary , but they did establish significant beachheads in public consciousness and contribute to an environment in which Biden 's very ambitious agenda can be seen as moderate .
Biden , says Shakir , “ is not leading the Overton window movement , but he ’ s also not disregarding or moving against it.
” @ @ @ @ @ @ @ presidents in our nation ’ s history — Lincoln , FDR , LBJ — were not ideologues fully aligned with the most radical movements of their time.
” Instead , they at times worked with activists to move the ball forward and at other times trimmed their sails to meet the constraints of public opinion .
Police reform , a topic that was not at the forefront of the public agenda during the primary , is nonetheless a spot-on case study in how Biden threads the needle between an increasingly influential left and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ public has grown considerably more skeptical of American policing over the past four years according to a Pew survey released last week .
In contrast to the prevailing attitudes of 2016 , most Americans now say the police do a poor job of calibrating their use of force appropriately to the situation , that they do a poor job of treating all racial groups equally , and that they a poor job of holding themselves accountable when misconduct occurs .
That creates a public mood that is now favorable to many reform ideas @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , conditioning federal police funding on new training and diversity initiatives , and reinvigorating federal oversight of police departments .
What left-wing activists want Biden and other politicians to do , however , is defund the police , an idea that Biden does not support .
The window of discussion has shifted left , and Biden sits squarely in the middle of it — a onetime champion of “ tough on crime ” politics who ’ s now backing a once-unthinkable list of reform demands .
He ’ s helped in staking out @ @ @ @ @ @ @ some ways become less racially divisive inside the Democratic Party coalition .
“ Overwhelming shares of Democrats of all races support reforms , ” Jocelyn Kiley , the associate director of research at Pew , tells me .
And when it comes to cutting police funding , the idea is popular with younger Democrats but unpopular overall , and that ’ s true across racial groups .
“ By and large , that support is equally high among white Democrats as it is among Black and Hispanic [ Democrats ] .
” Kiley @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a different way and explains that among Democrats , 43 percent of whites , 42 percent of African Americans , and 32 percent of Hispanics want to see cuts , with the rest preferring either flat or increased funding .
Indeed , increasing police spending is more popular with Black and Hispanic Democrats than with white ones .
But as my colleague Aaron Ross Coleman writes , a narrow focus on police funding ignores an important point : “ Black people view poor policing as an aspect of a broader state failure to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ And that ’ s where the progressive side of Biden ’ s agenda shines through .
Biden is proposing a substantial expansion of the welfare state While Trump would clearly like to ride a white backlash against Black Lives Matter to reelection , in reality he has ceded the middle ground in the culture war to Biden .
Trump is refusing to acknowledge any need for change .
Biden eschews a unpopular headline demand while embracing reform proposals that activists do like and the mass public is now willing to listen to .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ with his base of working-class African Americans in part because when it comes to the public investment side of the ledger , Biden is squarely there , especially with regard to low-income communities .
Indeed , as Ezra Klein and Roge Karma wrote in December , the bdynamic of the 2020 primary was that on economic policy , “ by the standards of the Democratic Party in 2008 , the moderates look like leftists.
” • Biden wants to quadruple federal spending on low-income housing assistance .
• He is proposing to triple @ @ @ @ @ @ @ • He wants to double Pell Grants and make community college free .
• Separately from the housing assistance money , he ’ s calling for a $ 100 billion investment in an affordable housing trust fund .
• His transportation platform includes a $ 10 billion special set-aside for transit projects in high-poverty areas .
Then on health care , especially as modified by the joint task force with Bernie Sanders , Biden ’ s plans are more aggressive than they sound , featuring a Medicare-administered public option that , as Ella @ @ @ @ @ @ @ range of people , including low-income Americans who are not eligible for Medicaid , and anyone who elects to choose the public option from the Affordable Care Act exchanges .
Those who currently get health insurance from their employers would also be eligible.
” Biden ’ s health plan also features the extremely mundane-sounding idea of switching the ACA subsidy formula to be pegged to the price of a gold plan rather than a silver plan .
This means , basically , extra money for every family earning less than 400 percent of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ also pledged to lift the subsidy cap for people earning more than that . )
This is all a formally race-neutral agenda , but given the realities of American economic life , it amounts to not just a game changer for low-income households but a significant blow to the systemic economic gaps between Black and white Americans .
Shakir , who managed Bernie Sanders ’ s campaign , says the Biden agenda is strikingly progressive on these points not despite Biden ’ s moderate profile but because of it .
Biden “ starts @ @ @ @ @ @ @ possible at a particular moment and time , ” he says , and the broad consensus in the Democratic Party is that what ’ s possible has changed .
Shahid uses the same analogy : “ Progressives often shift the Overton window and the establishment steps through the door a few years later ( $ 15 minimum wage is a good example ) , while the left moves on to other policies.
” The task force process probably scored its biggest win for the left on the subject of climate change , where @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez accelerated the pace at which Biden calls for electricity to be 100 percent carbon-free .
Varshini Prakash , the co-chair of the Sunrise Movement , hailed the outcome of the process , saying that “ we now have a Democratic unity position that begins to reflect what young people have been shouting relentlessly — that the climate crisis is not some far off threat.
” Sealing the deal here was eased somewhat by the unique dynamics of the climate issue .
On health care , the left-coded position involves replacing existing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ which requires broad-based tax increases that make moderate Democrats wary .
On climate , by contrast , the longstanding dynamic has been that moderates want to focus climate efforts on carbon pricing ( which is to say , an unpopular broad-based tax increase ) , while the left derides this as neoliberalism and calls for a more command-and-control approach .
Biden is a decidedly moderate politician but less of a wonkish technocrat type than Obama was , so he ’ s happy to deemphasize a politically unpopular moderate idea .
Instead , task @ @ @ @ @ @ @ House Democrats on forging a party consensus ) focus on the stick of regulation and the carrot of massive public investment ( both of which generally poll well ) while avoiding calls from climate activists for bans on fracking and nuclear power that alienated labor unions and some moderates .
Here , as on health , poverty , and police reform , Biden is essentially stepping into the sweet spot of the Overton window , and activists are happy with the result .
The same could be true on immigration if the stars @ @ @ @ @ @ @ turn into the difficult exception to the rule .
Of course , not everything works out so neatly .
On the immigration disputes that have at times defined Trump-era politics , the three-way tug-of-war among activist demands , public opinion , and the institutional realities of American government are complicated .
On an aspirational level , Biden ’ s immigration plan takes the core Obama-era concept of a path to citizenship for the long-settled and otherwise law-abiding unauthorized immigrant population and runs with it .
While the “ Gang of 8 ” legislation @ @ @ @ @ @ @ huge investments in more stringent border enforcement , Biden ’ s current proposals don ’ t take that direction .
Instead , they entail a forthright expansion of legal immigration by eliminating certain caps on green card issuance .
This would have been a risky political stance in Obama ’ s day , but Gallup recently reported that for the first time on record , more Americans favor increasing rather than decreasing immigration flows .
If Democrats score a huge landslide win , picking up many Senate seats , and then contrive to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ possible that something like this — perhaps incorporating some enforcement ideas progressives don ’ t like or limiting the ambitions somewhat — will happen and it will all go according to plan .
But if not , Biden is going to be stuck in the much more treacherous situation of presiding over an immigration enforcement apparatus that ’ s been taken with the mission of deporting a population that , theoretically , Democrats believe should be legalized and set on a path to citizenship .
“ The big thing to remember is that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ advocates , ” says Aaron Reichlin-Melnick , a policy counsel at the American Immigration Council , but activists “ pushed him in his second term into becoming a lot more lenient on some issues of immigration.
” That pivot from being the “ deporter-in-chief ” who set a record for removals that Trump has not yet matched to attempting a sweeping series of executive actions to bestow formal protection from deportation on millions of people involved a long series of tough battles .
The Obama administration tried , fitfully , to push the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in whom it targeted — facing both a lot of internal pushback from front-line US attorneys and immigration agents and a lot of blowback from advocates who said he wasn ’ t meeting his commitments .
Trump has very much thrown the levers in the opposite direction , and reversing course in a substantive way will involve taking on some in-the-weeds battles .
Reichlin-Melnick predicts that when it comes to staffing DHS and DOJ and actually implementing policy , there ’ s going to be “ a fight between making symbolic changes and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ has formally committed to not just rolling back the cruelest aspects of Trump ’ s clamp-down on asylum but to generally walking away from the deterrence-oriented approach that Obama took as well .
That ’ s easy to say in private meetings with activists or even around a policy task force negotiating table that also features a half-dozen higher-profile issues .
But immigration activists have real doubts as to whether Biden would stick with that plan if i arrivals start surging again , and cautious politicos have real doubts as to whether it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ On enforcement topics in general , the left has won a lot of elite battles inside the Democratic Party , but it ’ s less clear how much the larger window of public opinion has really shifted or how much those newfound views will hold together without Trump as a foil .
The practical functioning of the American government is never so neat and tidy as a bunch of plans on a piece of paper .
Contemporary administrations do what they can through the legislative process and then fall back on controlling the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ here , as Elizabeth Warren ( quoting Reagan-era conservatives ) likes to say , the key point is that “ personnel is policy.
” You can love Bidenism without loving Joe Biden , but when legislative dealmaking breaks down and it becomes incredibly relevant who holds which sub-Cabinet jobs , the personal identity of the Biden team becomes a much bigger deal .
That ’ s why many progressives have become so invested in pushing Warren as a VP option — they ’ d like her Rolodex as close to the West Wing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ team , though still skeletal at this point , is encouraging to the left ; it ’ s headed by Ted Kaufman , who is probably the most progressive member of the true Biden inner circle .
But that inner circle also includes Bruce Reed , a longtime bête noir of the progressive wing of the Democratic Party , and is generally ( as you would expect ) a very establishment-oriented group of people .
Realistically , an administration led by Barack Obama ’ s vice president is going to feature a lot @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , whether the left likes it or not .
The establishment ’ s own views have , however , shifted considerably to the left over the past 15 years , in part as a result of changes in the objective environment and in part because of shifts in public opinion .
In that sense , moderate Joe is nobody ’ s Trojan horse .
But it ’ s still the case that when you peek at what ’ s inside , it ’ s a much more transformative agenda than a superficial glance @ @ @ @ @ @ @ lead you to believe .
Every day at Vox , we aim to answer your most important questions and provide you , and our audience around the world , with information that has the power to save lives .
Our mission has never been more vital than it is in this moment : to empower you through understanding .
Vox ’ s work is reaching more people than ever , but our distinctive brand of explanatory journalism takes resources — particularly during a pandemic and an economic downturn .
Your financial contribution will @ @ @ @ @ @ @ will enable our staff to continue to offer free articles , videos , and podcasts at the quality and volume that this moment requires .
Please consider making a contribution to Vox today .

Progressive groups overwhelmingly favored confrontational leftists like Bernie Sanders or Elizabeth Warren during the 2020 primary campaign. And many pretty clearly favored younger, more diverse rising stars like Kamala Harris and Pete Buttigieg over Joe Biden. Biden, after all, is not only a paid-up member of the “establishment,” he’s a veteran of the long shadow cast over American politics by Richard Nixon and Ronald Reagan — a guy who voted in favor of the invasion of Iraq, of multiple pieces of legislation deregulating the banking industry, of the 1994 welfare reform bill, and of the “tough on crime” 1994 criminal justice bill.
Biden is now the presumptive nominee, but progressives still fundamentally do not see him or his team as kindred spirits. Many, however, are becoming more optimistic about Bidenism. His platform is in many ways a surprisingly progressive approach to policy that the left sees as a triumph of their own work in trying to change the terms of debate in American politics.
Biden “envisions a massive public sector role for job creation,” points out Faiz Shakir, who managed Bernie Sanders’s 2016 campaign. He doesn’t think Biden has suddenly become a left-wing hero. But he credits Biden, Biden’s team, and mainstream Democrats more broadly with “understanding that in Covid times there needs to be thinking about bold practical measures.”
Republicans have so far failed in their attempt to convince moderate voters that Biden is a socialist snake in the grass. Even as broader American society sees a genuine upsurge of left-wing radicalism both in the streets and in the realm of ideas, public perception of Biden continues to hold that he is closer to the middle ground than President Donald Trump.
Republicans have been reduced to trying to argue that Biden is just a Trojan horse for other, far more left-wing, figures in the party. But it’s an argument that founders since Americans just watched Biden win an extended primary campaign in which he was repeatedly assailed for failing to meet various progressive litmus tests.
Biden won the primary handily by convincingly slapping a moderate label on a policy agenda that is nonetheless far bolder than the one pursued by Barack Obama or proposed by Hillary Clinton in 2016.
“That’s his genius now,” one pillar of the Democratic establishment who’d initially preferred several younger candidates from the moderate lane told me.
The Overton window, explained
Biden is not progressives’ champion: He does not push the envelope in the ways they want, and he has not endorsed their most ambitious ideas. But public opinion has been shifting leftward, and Biden’s thinking has shifted with it, creating a platform that progressives are genuinely excited about.
It’s “the most progressive platform of any Democratic nominee in the modern history of the party,” Waleed Shahid, communications director for Justice Democrats, a group famous (or infamous) for backing left-wing challengers to incumbent congressional Democrats, tells me.
They also see his approach as a triumph of sorts in changing the scope of what is acceptable to discuss in national politics. The “Overton window” came up repeatedly. The idea is that at any given time, only a certain set of ideas is deemed worthy of mainstream discussion, and where the contours of that set, or window, are located has meaningful impact on political outcomes. Ideas like Medicare-for-all, a Green New Deal, defunding the police, and wealth taxation did not win in the primary, but they did establish significant beachheads in public consciousness and contribute to an environment in which Biden's very ambitious agenda can be seen as moderate.
Biden, says Shakir, “is not leading the Overton window movement, but he’s also not disregarding or moving against it.”
Shahid observes that “the most transformative presidents in our nation’s history — Lincoln, FDR, LBJ — were not ideologues fully aligned with the most radical movements of their time.” Instead, they at times worked with activists to move the ball forward and at other times trimmed their sails to meet the constraints of public opinion.
Biden threads the needle on police reform
Police reform, a topic that was not at the forefront of the public agenda during the primary, is nonetheless a spot-on case study in how Biden threads the needle between an increasingly influential left and an unpopular incumbent president.
The mass public has grown considerably more skeptical of American policing over the past four years, according to a Pew survey released last week. In contrast to the prevailing attitudes of 2016, most Americans now say the police do a poor job of calibrating their use of force appropriately to the situation, that they do a poor job of treating all racial groups equally, and that they do a poor job of holding themselves accountable when misconduct occurs.
That creates a public mood now favorable to many reform ideas Biden has embraced, like curbing qualified immunity, conditioning federal police funding on new training and diversity initiatives, and reinvigorating federal oversight of police departments.
What left-wing activists want Biden and other politicians to do, however, is defund the police, an idea that Biden does not support. The window of discussion has shifted left, and Biden sits squarely in the middle of it — a onetime champion of “tough on crime” politics who’s now backing a once-unthinkable list of reform demands.
He’s helped in staking out this ground because policing issues have in some ways become less racially divisive inside the Democratic Party coalition.
“Overwhelming shares of Democrats of all races support reforms,” Jocelyn Kiley, the associate director of research at Pew, tells me. And when it comes to cutting police funding, the idea is popular with younger Democrats but unpopular overall, and that’s true across racial groups. “By and large, that support is equally high among white Democrats as it is among Black and Hispanic [Democrats].”
Kiley helped me break down the numbers in a different way and explains that among Democrats, 43 percent of whites, 42 percent of African Americans, and 32 percent of Hispanics want to see cuts, with the rest preferring either flat or increased funding. Indeed, increasing police spending is more popular with Black and Hispanic Democrats than with white ones.
But as my colleague Aaron Ross Coleman writes, a narrow focus on police funding ignores an important point: “Black people view poor policing as an aspect of a broader state failure to provide adequate public goods and services.” And that’s where the progressive side of Biden’s agenda shines through.
Biden is proposing a substantial expansion of the welfare state
While Trump would clearly like to ride a white backlash against Black Lives Matter to reelection, in reality he has ceded the middle ground in the culture war to Biden. Trump is refusing to acknowledge any need for change. Biden eschews a unpopular headline demand while embracing reform proposals that activists do like and the mass public is now willing to listen to. And he can get away with it with his base of working-class African Americans in part because when it comes to the public investment side of the ledger, Biden is squarely there, especially with regard to low-income communities.
Indeed, as Ezra Klein and Roge Karma wrote in December, the dynamic of the 2020 primary was that on economic policy, “by the standards of the Democratic Party in 2008, the moderates look like leftists.”
Then on health care, especially as modified by the joint task force with Bernie Sanders, Biden’s plans are more aggressive than they sound, featuring a Medicare-administered public option that, as Ella Nilsen explains, “would cover a range of people, including low-income Americans who are not eligible for Medicaid, and anyone who elects to choose the public option from the Affordable Care Act exchanges. Those who currently get health insurance from their employers would also be eligible.”
Biden’s health plan also features the extremely mundane-sounding idea of switching the ACA subsidy formula to be pegged to the price of a gold plan rather than a silver plan. This means, basically, extra money for every family earning less than 400 percent of the poverty line. (Biden has also pledged to lift the subsidy cap for people earning more than that.)
This is all a formally race-neutral agenda, but given the realities of American economic life, it amounts to not just a game changer for low-income households but a significant blow to the systemic economic gaps between Black and white Americans.
Shakir, who managed Bernie Sanders’s campaign, says the Biden agenda is strikingly progressive on these points not despite Biden’s moderate profile but because of it.
Biden “starts with a politics of what’s possible at a particular moment and time,” he says, and the broad consensus in the Democratic Party is that what’s possible has changed.
Shahid uses the same analogy: “Progressives often shift the Overton window and the establishment steps through the door a few years later ($15 minimum wage is a good example), while the left moves on to other policies.”
Playing to win on climate change
The task force process probably scored its biggest win for the left on the subject of climate change, where a group co-chaired by John Kerry and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez accelerated the pace at which Biden calls for electricity to be 100 percent carbon-free.
Today the 6 Biden-Sanders Unity Task Forces are unveiling final language.
The Climate Task Force accomplished a great deal. It was an honor to serve as co-chair w/ Sec. @JohnKerry.
Among the notable gains: we shaved *15 years* off Biden’s previous target for 100% clean energy. https://t.co/pnLj7uufeg — Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (@AOC) July 8, 2020
Varshini Prakash, the co-chair of the Sunrise Movement, hailed the outcome of the process, saying that “we now have a Democratic unity position that begins to reflect what young people have been shouting relentlessly — that the climate crisis is not some far off threat.”
Sealing the deal here was eased somewhat by the unique dynamics of the climate issue. On health care, the left-coded position involves replacing existing private insurance with a government-funded program, which requires broad-based tax increases that make moderate Democrats wary. On climate, by contrast, the longstanding dynamic has been that moderates want to focus climate efforts on carbon pricing (which is to say, an unpopular broad-based tax increase), while the left derides this as neoliberalism and calls for a more command-and-control approach.
Biden is a decidedly moderate politician but less of a wonkish technocrat type than Obama was, so he’s happy to deemphasize a politically unpopular moderate idea. Instead, task force proposals (like earlier work from House Democrats on forging a party consensus) focus on the stick of regulation and the carrot of massive public investment (both of which generally poll well) while avoiding calls from climate activists for bans on fracking and nuclear power that alienated labor unions and some moderates.
Here, as on health, poverty, and police reform, Biden is essentially stepping into the sweet spot of the Overton window, and activists are happy with the result. The same could be true on immigration if the stars align correctly, but it also could turn into the difficult exception to the rule.
A tale of two immigration plans
Of course, not everything works out so neatly. On the immigration disputes that have at times defined Trump-era politics, the three-way tug-of-war among activist demands, public opinion, and the institutional realities of American government are complicated.
On an aspirational level, Biden’s immigration plan takes the core Obama-era concept of a path to citizenship for the long-settled and otherwise law-abiding unauthorized immigrant population and runs with it. While the “Gang of 8” legislation that Obama championed paired that idea with huge investments in more stringent border enforcement, Biden’s current proposals don’t take that direction. Instead, they entail a forthright expansion of legal immigration by eliminating certain caps on green card issuance.
This would have been a risky political stance in Obama’s day, but Gallup recently reported that for the first time on record, more Americans favor increasing rather than decreasing immigration flows.
If Democrats score a huge landslide win, picking up many Senate seats, and then contrive to end the filibuster, it’s possible that something like this — perhaps incorporating some enforcement ideas progressives don’t like or limiting the ambitions somewhat — will happen and it will all go according to plan.
But if not, Biden is going to be stuck in the much more treacherous situation of presiding over an immigration enforcement apparatus that’s been taken with the mission of deporting a population that, theoretically, Democrats believe should be legalized and set on a path to citizenship.
“The big thing to remember is that Obama was not universally loved among immigration advocates,” says Aaron Reichlin-Melnick, policy counsel at the American Immigration Council, but activists “pushed him in his second term into becoming a lot more lenient on some issues of immigration.”
That pivot, from being the “deporter-in-chief” who set a record for removals that Trump has not yet matched to attempting a sweeping series of executive actions to bestow formal protection from deportation on millions of people, involved a long series of tough battles.
The Obama administration tried, fitfully, to push the immigration enforcement apparatus to exercise more discretion in whom it targeted — facing both a lot of internal pushback from front-line US attorneys and immigration agents and a lot of blowback from advocates who said he wasn’t meeting his commitments. Trump has very much thrown the levers in the opposite direction, and reversing course in a substantive way will involve taking on some in-the-weeds battles.
Reichlin-Melnick predicts that when it comes to staffing DHS and DOJ and actually implementing policy, there’s going to be “a fight between making symbolic changes and making systemic changes.”
Similarly, Biden has formally committed to not just rolling back the cruelest aspects of Trump’s clamp-down on asylum but to generally walking away from the deterrence-oriented approach that Obama took as well. That’s easy to say in private meetings with activists or even around a policy task force negotiating table that also features a half-dozen higher-profile issues.
But immigration activists have real doubts as to whether Biden would stick with that plan if arrivals start surging again, and cautious politicos have real doubts as to whether it would be wise to do so. On enforcement topics in general, the left has won a lot of elite battles inside the Democratic Party, but it’s less clear how much the larger window of public opinion has really shifted or how much those newfound views will hold together without Trump as a foil.
Personnel is policy
The practical functioning of the American government is never so neat and tidy as a bunch of plans on a piece of paper. Contemporary administrations do what they can through the legislative process and then fall back on controlling the machinery of the administrative state. And here, as Elizabeth Warren (quoting Reagan-era conservatives) likes to say, the key point is that “personnel is policy.”
You can love Bidenism without loving Joe Biden, but when legislative dealmaking breaks down and it becomes incredibly relevant who holds which sub-Cabinet jobs, the personal identity of the Biden team becomes a much bigger deal. That’s why many progressives have become so invested in pushing Warren as a VP option — they’d like her Rolodex as close to the West Wing as possible.
Biden’s transition team, though still skeletal at this point, is encouraging to the left; it’s headed by Ted Kaufman, who is probably the most progressive member of the true Biden inner circle. But that inner circle also includes Bruce Reed, a longtime bête noir of the progressive wing of the Democratic Party, and is generally (as you would expect) a very establishment-oriented group of people.
Realistically, an administration led by Barack Obama’s vice president is going to feature a lot of personnel continuity with the Obama administration, whether the left likes it or not. The establishment’s own views have, however, shifted considerably to the left over the past 15 years, in part as a result of changes in the objective environment and in part because of shifts in public opinion.
In that sense, moderate Joe is nobody’s Trojan horse. But it’s still the case that when you peek at what’s inside, it’s a much more transformative agenda than a superficial glance at the outcome of the primaries would lead you to believe.


vox--2020-07-18--Why more young people are getting sick in the latest Covid-19 outbreaks

At the beginning of the coronavirus outbreak in the US , most Covid-19 cases seemed to be in older folks , who were getting very sick — an artifact of who was getting tested at the time .
But now , especially in states where Covid-19 cases have been rising in June and July , the median age has been dropping .
“ We are seeing it in a much younger group , of 20- to 40-year-olds , ” compared to the earlier stage of the pandemic , says Thomas Tsai , a health policy expert and surgeon at the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Health .
In Florida , where the coronavirus has infected more than 311,000 residents , the median age of positive cases in March was 65 .
As of July 17 , the median age of new cases from the previous 14 days was 39.5 .
In Arizona , 61 percent of Covid-19 cases are in people under the age of 45 .
In Texas ’ s two largest counties , Harris ( home to Houston ) and Dallas , about half of the new cases have been in people under 40 .
Other @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are seeing a similar trend .
In California , which just reclosed bars and indoor dining , as of July 15 , people ages 18 to 34 made up the largest proportion of new cases ( 24.3 percent ) , with 35-to-49-year-olds as the second-largest group ( 19.3 percent of new cases ) .
Even Virginia , where cases have been relatively stable , has seen an increase in new cases among people in their 20s .
Nationwide , “ the average age of people getting infected is now a decade and a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ months ago , ” Dr. Anthony Fauci , director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases , said in a July 6 press briefing .
Younger people , on average , are less likely to become severely ill and die of Covid-19 — although many do .
They can also spread it to older people who are much more vulnerable to severe infection and death .
This seems to already be happening , with assisted living facility cases climbing in Houston and Phoenix , as well as in Florida now .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ community , and then we see it in the residents and staff , and then you see the deaths , ” David Grabowski , a health care policy expert at Harvard Medical School , told the Wall Street Journal .
So even if you ’ re a young person who gets infected and don ’ t get very sick , “ you ’ re part of the propagation of the pandemic , ” as Fauci put it .
So how did the coronavirus suddenly start spreading to so many young people ?
We @ @ @ @ @ @ @ crowded indoor spaces are hubs of spread in the new hot spots .
But there are likely many other factors at play .
Some of these factors include mixed public health messaging and premature reopenings , young people skipping precautions because they perceive a lower risk of getting very sick , people returning to jobs , and more testing of people without symptoms .
Let ’ s unpack some of these , which can help us better understand — and possibly slow — this new trend .
Who exactly counts as “ young @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and inconsistent data , it ’ s hard to say .
Getting a clear picture of the age demographics of new Covid-19 cases is not as simple as you ’ d think .
States are on their own to decide whom they group together in their statistics , which can make the definition of “ young ” very different from place to place — and result in skewed numbers .
Arizona , for example , has lumped together people ages 20 to 44 , which shows a huge number of cases .
But @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of years of the state measures , compared to other groups ( such as the 55-to-64 age range , which spans just nine years ) .
( These age groupings might be a legacy from the earlier days of the pandemic , when we were trying to better understand the illness ’ s severity in older adults . )
Arizona also displays cumulative cases since the beginning of the pandemic for each age group , whereas California highlights the number of new cases by age group for each week .
This difference makes @ @ @ @ @ @ @ involved in spreading the virus currently and historically .
To make things even more challenging , most states are also primarily reporting the overall number of cases per age group — rather than the percentage of that demographic ’ s population .
( We can see from states that are providing this information that rates among different age groups can be very different than overall case counts might lead you to believe .
For example , Massachusetts ’ s largest raw number of cases have been in people ages 50 to 59 , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ been far greater in people over 69 . )
Another way to get a sense of how prevalent the virus is in different age groups is to look at the rate of tests coming back positive .
This is still not a perfect metric ( and depends a lot on who — people who are symptomatic , high-risk individuals , those going back to work , etc .
— is being tested ) .
But it does help provide a sense of proportionality so we can do a rough comparison of how frequently @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to come back with a positive Covid-19 test .
And US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention data can differ from what states are reporting .
For example , a recent Bloomberg report found that the CDC was likely underreporting the rate of Covid-19 infections in people under the age of 18 compared to what many states were showing .
Without more uniform — and , in some cases , more granular — data , it can be difficult to pin down precisely which age groups might be most prone to be spreading @ @ @ @ @ @ @ behaviors would be best to target to change .
After all , a bunch of partying teens , for example , is a different public health problem to solve than middle-aged folks returning to office work .
Younger people do get sick and are now showing up in hospitals On average , people younger than 65 tend to have a lower risk of getting extremely sick and dying from Covid-19 .
Because of this , by and large , “ we may not see as high of hospitalization , ICU , fatality rates @ @ @ @ @ @ @ with nursing home-driven clusters of infections , ” Tsai says .
And this had borne out so far , as Dylan Scott reported for Vox in early July .
A higher percentage of young people — and a lower percentage of elderly people — getting infected could seem like a good thing .
For one , it should mean fewer deaths .
It also should mean less strain on the health care system and its workers .
But in the states with larger outbreaks , including Arizona and Texas , hospitals are already @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Hospitals in Florida are now requesting additional medical personnel to keep up , and those in Houston and Phoenix have exceeded their capacities .
When that happens , “ it ’ s horrifying , ” says Jay Wolfson , a public health and policy expert at the University of South Florida .
“ It ’ s a slippery slope , ” of hospitalizations rising and exceeding hospital capacity , “ and it goes really , really fast.
” For the last week in June , more than 40 percent of Covid-19 hospitalized @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
That same age group made up just a quarter of hospitalizations in March and April .
Young smokers are particularly at risk , according to new research in the Journal of Adolescent Health .
“ Recent evidence indicates that smoking is associated with a higher likelihood of Covid-19 progression , including increased illness severity , ICU admission , or death , ” said study author Sally Adams of the UCSF Division of Adolescent and Young Adult Medicine in a statement .
“ Smoking may have significant effects in young adults , who @ @ @ @ @ @ @ diseases.
” Since the outbreak ’ s start in the US , the coronavirus has sent more than 9,000 people under the age of 50 to the hospital , and it has killed about 1,000 people in the US under the age of 35 , as of July 17 .
( Possibly more due to likely underreporting , and there are likely more to come , given that deaths usually occur a couple of weeks after symptoms appear . )
Even if an infection doesn ’ t send someone to the hospital , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ action for weeks at a time , ” Fauci said in the July 6 press briefing .
There are also emerging long-term risks for young people who contract the virus — even if they don ’ t get severely ill at first .
For example , among those who have ostensibly “ recovered ” from their initial Covid-19 infection , many describe persistent debilitating symptoms .
And some of those health impacts might be long-term .
“ Even if you have a mild or asymptomatic case , some percentage of everybody who gets @ @ @ @ @ @ @ disease , ” says Wolfson , who lists lung , vascular , and kidney diseases as some of the potential “ persistent-acquired diseases ” that are popping up from Covid-19 infections .
“ You could be a perfectly healthy 21-year-old , ” he says , and after a couple of weeks of recuperating from the virus at home , you ’ re getting back up but still have some shortness of breath , “ and four months later find out that you got scarring in your lungs .
And that ’ s not @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the virus that keeps on giving.
” And not in a good way .
Why milder infections among younger people might be making outbreaks worse for everyone Although the new case increases in younger people have been treated by some government officials , such as Florida Gov .
Ron DeSantis , as good news , there is another side to this story .
If younger people are less likely to get severely ill , they may be more likely to shrug off recommendations about masking up and maintaining physical distancing , further spreading @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
As Wolfson explains , coronavirus transmission doesn ’ t change based on your age or risk of dying .
“ The calculus to this disease is proximity , congestion , and time , ” he says .
So “ the closer you are to large groups of people for a longer period of time , it is exceptionally likely that somebody in that crowd is going to be a carrier.
” Another challenge is that a lot of the pandemic ’ s impacts might seem removed for some young adults who feel @ @ @ @ @ @ @ something for their grandparents or other older family members to worry about .
And the societal questions , such as the urgency of reducing transmission so that schools can fully reopen in the fall , might not feel that personally relevant to young people eager to hang out with friends if they ’ re out of school and don ’ t have school-age children of their own .
The social isolation of shutdowns also seems to be taking a much higher psychological toll on younger than older adults , and is potentially driving @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
A CDC study in May found that nearly half of all 18- to 29-year-olds surveyed had been feeling at least some symptoms of anxiety or depression — a higher proportion than for other age groups ( which was closer to one-third for those 30 to 59 ) .
( The CDC now also offers specific guidance for teens and young adults who might be struggling . )
Why young people don ’ t deserve all the blame Plenty of young people are taking the pandemic very seriously and practicing the recommended precautions @ @ @ @ @ @ @ be a team player , ” Lily Scott , 18 , of Austin , told Bloomberg .
“ There are so many of us being cautious and trying to flatten the curve , ” she said .
“ It ’ s hard to see our generation being represented this way.
” And other reports are trickling in that many younger Covid-19 patients have gotten sick not from bar-hopping or parties but just from going to work .
In Florida , for example , the Miami area ’ s network of public hospitals says @ @ @ @ @ @ @ younger , working-age patients who have no choice but to work and , in turn , expose themselves to the virus , ” the Miami Herald reported earlier this month .
Some experts also speculate that the uptick in cases among younger Americans could be partially due to a shift in who ’ s getting tested because tests are more accessible than they were in March and April .
During those early months , tests were largely reserved for those who had serious signs of illness and the highest-risk individuals , a large @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ With additional testing available , more people in lower-risk populations are likely being tested , ” according to the Covid Tracking Project , which includes younger , healthier people .
Additionally , they note , “ workplace testing may also increase case numbers for the working-age population , and perhaps particularly younger-skewing service workers.
” Catherine Troisi , an infectious disease expert for University of Texas School of Public Health , even thinks that “ young people are being made maybe a scapegoat ” for these new surges of Covid-19 .
Instead @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a little bit of responsibility.
” She places some on officials who have been sending mixed messages .
For example , although Texas ’ s governor , Greg Abbott , instituted a mask order in early July , he had previously disallowed local governments from instituting such requirements .
Around the same time , Florida Gov .
DeSantis said at a press conference that “ there ’ s no need to really be fearful ” about the situation .
Although he advised people older than 65 or with high-risk health conditions to take @ @ @ @ @ @ @ this to younger , healthy folks , which contradicts recommendations from national experts .
“ Certainly having better risk communication messages would be the first place I would start , ” Troisi says .
Additionally , many states that are now seeing surges in the virus , including Texas , also rushed to reopen perhaps earlier — and more quickly — than they should have , she says .
After the state began closing businesses in the spring , experts there had agreed on key metrics that would need to be met before @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that was thrown out the window , ” Troisi says .
Not only that , but “ we didn ’ t wait long enough to see what happened once we opened up a little bit .
We wound up opening more without seeing what the effects of the first opening were , ” she says .
And those effects have been brutal , which Abbott has acknowledged .
“ If I could go back and redo anything , it probably would have been to slow down the opening of bars , now seeing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ coronavirus spread in the bar setting , ” the governor said in a June radio interview .
Other states and localities , such as Madison , Wisconsin , are reimposing previous restrictions like closing bars .
More onus could also be shifted to businesses to reinforce safe behaviors , says Tsai .
As he notes , in Florida , for example , the state can now take away a bar or restaurant ’ s liquor license if the establishment isn ’ t enforcing distancing and other public health guidelines .
And in Texas @ @ @ @ @ @ @ be fined if they don ’ t enforce the state ’ s new mask-wearing policy .
Testing has also been a challenge to stemming these spiraling case numbers , with many people waiting more than a week for results — a time during which they could continue spreading the virus , and when contact tracers lose valuable time finding others who might have gotten infected .
Additionally , if someone who later tests positive for Covid-19 has been to a crowded bar or event — or many — it can be next to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ had contact with .
( Mobile phone data , as used in other countries , may be much more helpful in making these connections than the self-reported information officials have relied on in the US . )
Even without perfect testing and tracing , though , there are ways to manage this situation better , where people can still get out a bit and see friends and even frequent some businesses , but in a safer way .
Because , as Troisi says , “ it ’ s not public health or the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ So we need good public health in order to shore up the economy.
” “ I am so tired of being home , ” she says .
“ But you can ’ t wish the virus away .
The only way we have to control it and to stop deaths right now is through these mitigation efforts.
” In short , everyone , young and old , will need to have some level of “ personal discipline and a recognition that this is real , ” Wolfson says .
Because “ the government @ @ @ @ @ @ @ this.
” Katherine Harmon Courage is a freelance science journalist and author of Cultured and Octopus !
Find her on Twitter at @ KHCourage .
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Our mission has never been more vital than it is in this moment : to empower you through understanding .
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Your financial contribution will not constitute a donation , but it will enable our staff to continue to offer free articles , videos , and podcasts at the quality and volume that this moment requires .
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At the beginning of the coronavirus outbreak in the US, most Covid-19 cases seemed to be in older folks, who were getting very sick — an artifact of who was getting tested at the time.
But now, especially in states where Covid-19 cases have been rising in June and July, the median age has been dropping.
“We are seeing it in a much younger group, of 20- to 40-year-olds,” compared to the earlier stage of the pandemic, says Thomas Tsai, a health policy expert and surgeon at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health.
In Florida, where the coronavirus has infected more than 311,000 residents, the median age of positive cases in March was 65. As of July 17, the median age of new cases from the previous 14 days was 39.5.
In Arizona, 61 percent of Covid-19 cases are in people under the age of 45. In Texas’s two largest counties, Harris (home to Houston) and Dallas, about half of the new cases have been in people under 40.
Other states with worrying rises in case numbers are seeing a similar trend. In California, which just reclosed bars and indoor dining, as of July 15, people ages 18 to 34 made up the largest proportion of new cases (24.3 percent), with 35- to-49-year-olds as the second-largest group (19.3 percent of new cases). Even Virginia, where cases have been relatively stable, has seen an increase in new cases among people in their 20s.
Nationwide, “the average age of people getting infected is now a decade and a half younger than it was a few months ago,” Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said in a July 6 press briefing.
Younger people, on average, are less likely to become severely ill and die of Covid-19 — although many do. They can also spread it to older people who are much more vulnerable to severe infection and death.
This seems to already be happening, with assisted living facility cases climbing in Houston and Phoenix, as well as in Florida now. “We first see it in the community, and then we see it in the residents and staff, and then you see the deaths,” David Grabowski, a health care policy expert at Harvard Medical School, told the Wall Street Journal.
Check out this helpful visualization of the ages of new cases in Florida. With many more cases in younger adults (orange band), we are closely tracking spillover into older adults (red and gray bands).
Credit: @jasonsalemi https://t.co/TYinXKTQa1 pic.twitter.com/UQgsBq5GS7 — Natalie E. Dean, PhD (@nataliexdean) July 14, 2020
So even if you’re a young person who gets infected and don’t get very sick, “you’re part of the propagation of the pandemic,” as Fauci put it.
So how did the coronavirus suddenly start spreading to so many young people?
We’ve known that bars and other crowded indoor spaces are hubs of spread in the new hot spots. But there are likely many other factors at play.
THINK LIKE AN EPIDEMIOLOGIST:
What does it mean that the median age of new cases is dropping in some areas? I see three possible explanations, not all good. A thread on how to distinguish between them. 1/10
(Figure h/t @ScottGottliebMD) pic.twitter.com/Y6m45qoBL6 — Natalie E. Dean, PhD (@nataliexdean) June 23, 2020
Some of these factors include mixed public health messaging and premature reopenings, young people skipping precautions because they perceive a lower risk of getting very sick, people returning to jobs, and more testing of people without symptoms. Let’s unpack some of these, which can help us better understand — and possibly slow — this new trend.
Who exactly counts as “young,” anyway? Due to imperfect and inconsistent data, it’s hard to say.
Getting a clear picture of the age demographics of new Covid-19 cases is not as simple as you’d think. States are on their own to decide whom they group together in their statistics, which can make the definition of “young” very different from place to place — and result in skewed numbers.
Arizona, for example, has lumped together people ages 20 to 44, which shows a huge number of cases. But this group is also the largest span of years the state measures, compared to other groups (such as the 55-to-64 age range, which spans just nine years). (These age groupings might be a legacy from the earlier days of the pandemic, when we were trying to better understand the illness’s severity in older adults.)
Arizona also displays cumulative cases since the beginning of the pandemic for each age group, whereas California highlights the number of new cases by age group for each week. This difference makes it harder to compare the age ranges involved in spreading the virus currently and historically.
To make things even more challenging, most states are also primarily reporting the overall number of cases per age group — rather than the percentage of that demographic’s population. (We can see from states that are providing this information that rates among different age groups can be very different than overall case counts might lead you to believe. For example, Massachusetts’s largest raw number of cases have been in people ages 50 to 59, but by percentage, the rate has been far greater in people over 69.)
Another way to get a sense of how prevalent the virus is in different age groups is to look at the rate of tests coming back positive. This is still not a perfect metric (and depends a lot on who — people who are symptomatic, high-risk individuals, those going back to work, etc. — is being tested). But it does help provide a sense of proportionality for a rough comparison of how frequently people in different age groups are likely to come back with a positive Covid-19 test.
And US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention data can differ from what states are reporting. For example, a recent Bloomberg report found that the CDC was likely underreporting the rate of Covid-19 infections in people under the age of 18 compared to what many states were showing.
Without more uniform — and, in some cases, more granular — data, it can be difficult to pin down precisely which age groups might be most prone to be spreading the virus in different places and what behaviors would be best to target to change. After all, a bunch of partying teens, for example, is a different public health problem to solve than middle-aged folks returning to office work.
Younger people do get sick and are now showing up in hospitals
On average, people younger than 65 tend to have a lower risk of getting extremely sick and dying from Covid-19. Because of this, by and large, “we may not see as high of hospitalization, ICU, fatality rates as we did in March and April with nursing home-driven clusters of infections,” Tsai says. And this had borne out so far, as Dylan Scott reported for Vox in early July.
A higher percentage of young people — and a lower percentage of elderly people — getting infected could seem like a good thing. For one, it should mean fewer deaths. It also should mean less strain on the health care system and its workers. But in the states with larger outbreaks, including Arizona and Texas, hospitals are already getting overwhelmed with young and old alike.
Hospitals in Florida are now requesting additional medical personnel to keep up, and those in Houston and Phoenix have exceeded their capacities. When that happens, “it’s horrifying,” says Jay Wolfson, a public health and policy expert at the University of South Florida. “It’s a slippery slope,” of hospitalizations rising and exceeding hospital capacity, “and it goes really, really fast.”
For the last week in June, more than 40 percent of Covid-19 hospitalized patients were 18 to 49 years old. That same age group made up just a quarter of hospitalizations in March and April.
Young smokers are particularly at risk, according to new research in the Journal of Adolescent Health. “Recent evidence indicates that smoking is associated with a higher likelihood of Covid-19 progression, including increased illness severity, ICU admission, or death,” said study author Sally Adams of the UCSF Division of Adolescent and Young Adult Medicine in a statement. “Smoking may have significant effects in young adults, who typically have low rates for most chronic diseases.”
Since the outbreak’s start in the US, the coronavirus has sent more than 9,000 people under the age of 50 to the hospital, and it has killed about 1,000 people in the US under the age of 35, as of July 17. (Possibly more due to likely underreporting, and there are likely more to come, given that deaths usually occur a couple of weeks after symptoms appear.)
Even if an infection doesn’t send someone to the hospital, it can “put them out of action for weeks at a time,” Fauci said in the July 6 press briefing.
There are also emerging long-term risks for young people who contract the virus — even if they don’t get severely ill at first. For example, among those who have ostensibly “recovered” from their initial Covid-19 infection, many describe persistent debilitating symptoms. And some of those health impacts might be long-term.
“Even if you have a mild or asymptomatic case, some percentage of everybody who gets it is going to acquire a new disease,” says Wolfson, who lists lung, vascular, and kidney diseases as some of the potential “persistent-acquired diseases” popping up from Covid-19 infections.
“You could be a perfectly healthy 21-year-old,” he says, and after a couple of weeks of recuperating from the virus at home, you’re getting back up but still have some shortness of breath, “and four months later find out that you got scarring in your lungs. And that’s not going away.” He calls it “the virus that keeps on giving.” And not in a good way.
Why milder infections among younger people might be making outbreaks worse for everyone
Although the new case increases in younger people have been treated by some government officials, such as Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, as good news, there is another side to this story. If younger people are less likely to get severely ill, they may be more likely to shrug off recommendations about masking up and maintaining physical distancing, further spreading the virus to those in higher-risk groups.
As Wolfson explains, coronavirus transmission doesn’t change based on your age or risk of dying. “The calculus to this disease is proximity, congestion, and time,” he says. So “the closer you are to large groups of people for a longer period of time, it is exceptionally likely that somebody in that crowd is going to be a carrier.”
Another challenge is that a lot of the pandemic’s impacts might seem removed for some young adults who feel perfectly healthy. Covid-19 might sound like something for their grandparents or other older family members to worry about. And the societal questions, such as the urgency of reducing transmission so that schools can fully reopen in the fall, might not feel that personally relevant to young people eager to hang out with friends if they’re out of school and don’t have school-age children of their own.
The social isolation of shutdowns also seems to be taking a much higher psychological toll on younger than older adults, and is potentially driving them to gather in risky indoor settings. A CDC study in May found that nearly half of all 18- to 29-year-olds surveyed had been feeling at least some symptoms of anxiety or depression — a higher proportion than for other age groups (which was closer to one-third for those 30 to 59). (The CDC now also offers specific guidance for teens and young adults who might be struggling.)
Why young people don’t deserve all the blame
Plenty of young people are taking the pandemic very seriously and practicing the recommended precautions. “I’m trying to be a team player,” Lily Scott, 18, of Austin, told Bloomberg. “There are so many of us being cautious and trying to flatten the curve,” she said. “It’s hard to see our generation being represented this way.”
And other reports are trickling in that many younger Covid-19 patients have gotten sick not from bar-hopping or parties but just from going to work. In Florida, for example, the Miami area’s network of public hospitals says it has “been seeing waves of younger, working-age patients who have no choice but to work and, in turn, expose themselves to the virus,” the Miami Herald reported earlier this month.
Some experts also speculate that the uptick in cases among younger Americans could be partially due to a shift in who’s getting tested, because tests are more accessible than they were in March and April. During those early months, tests were largely reserved for those who had serious signs of illness and the highest-risk individuals, a large number of whom were much older.
“With additional testing available, more people in lower-risk populations are likely being tested,” according to the Covid Tracking Project, which includes younger, healthier people. Additionally, they note, “workplace testing may also increase case numbers for the working-age population, and perhaps particularly younger-skewing service workers.”
Catherine Troisi, an infectious disease expert for University of Texas School of Public Health, even thinks that “young people are being made maybe a scapegoat” for these new surges of Covid-19. Instead, she says, “everybody bears a little bit of responsibility.”
She places some on officials who have been sending mixed messages. For example, although Texas Gov. Greg Abbott instituted a mask order in early July, he had previously disallowed local governments from instituting such requirements.
Around the same time, Florida Gov. DeSantis said at a press conference that “there’s no need to really be fearful” about the situation. Although he advised people older than 65 or with high-risk health conditions to take general precautions, he did not extend this to younger, healthy folks, which contradicts recommendations from national experts.
“Certainly having better risk communication messages would be the first place I would start,” Troisi says.
Additionally, many states now seeing surges in the virus, including Texas, rushed to reopen perhaps earlier — and more quickly — than they should have, she says. After the state began closing businesses in the spring, experts there had agreed on key metrics that would need to be met before they started reopening. Instead, “that was thrown out the window,” Troisi says. And, “we didn’t wait long enough to see what happened once we opened up a little bit. We wound up opening more without seeing what the effects of the first opening were,” she says.
And those effects have been brutal, which Abbott has acknowledged. “If I could go back and redo anything, it probably would have been to slow down the opening of bars, now seeing in the aftermath of how quickly the coronavirus spread in the bar setting,” the governor said in a June radio interview.
Other states and localities, such as Madison, Wisconsin, are reimposing previous restrictions like closing bars.
THREAD: Today a new order goes into effect further restricting, among other things, mass gatherings and restaurant and bar activity. We base these restrictions on public health data and evidence. Our data are not showing a large impact from protests at this time. — @publichealthmdc (@PublicHealthMDC) July 2, 2020
More onus could also be shifted to businesses to reinforce safe behaviors, says Tsai. As he notes, in Florida, for example, the state can now take away a bar or restaurant’s liquor license if the establishment isn’t enforcing distancing and other public health guidelines. And in Texas, among other states, restaurants can be fined if they don’t enforce the state’s new mask-wearing policy.
Testing has also been a challenge to stemming these spiraling case numbers, with many people waiting more than a week for results — a time during which they could continue spreading the virus, and when contact tracers lose valuable time finding others who might have gotten infected. Additionally, if someone who later tests positive for Covid-19 has been to a crowded bar or event — or many — it can be next to impossible to determine everyone they might have had contact with. (Mobile phone data, as used in other countries, may be much more helpful in making these connections than the self-reported information officials have relied on in the US.)
Even without perfect testing and tracing, though, there are ways to manage this situation better, where people can still get out a bit and see friends and even frequent some businesses, but in a safer way. Because, as Troisi says, “it’s not public health or the economy, it’s both. So we need good public health in order to shore up the economy.”
“I am so tired of being home,” she says. “But you can’t wish the virus away. The only way we have to control it and to stop deaths right now is through these mitigation efforts.”
In short, everyone, young and old, will need to have some level of “personal discipline and a recognition that this is real,” Wolfson says. Because “the government is not going to save us from this.”
Katherine Harmon Courage is a freelance science journalist and author of Cultured and Octopus! Find her on Twitter at @KHCourage.