vox--2020-04-27--Mitch McConnell’s rediscovery of the deficit is a recipe for a depression

There comes a time in every recession when people , for reasons both sincere and cynical , start to get really worried about the federal budget deficit .
Recessions lead to a collapse in tax revenue and increased use of safety net programs , and typically require extensive fiscal stimulus — all of which pushes up the deficit in the short run .
This last arose in early 2010 , when unemployment was nearly 10 percent , and Barack Obama to his discredit encouraged the shift , having presided over the massive ( and still inadequate ) $ 787 billion @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the shift is happening again , in the wake of the major $ 2 trillion stimulus bill signed by President Trump — and barely a month after mass unemployment began to set in due the Covid-19 crisis .
“ Record debt load poses risk of fiscal ‘ tipping point ’ ” blared a Washington Post headline , printed on the front page , above the fold , of the print edition .
More ominously , Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell forcefully rejected the idea of offering aid to states and local governments that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , saying , “ given the extraordinary numbers that we ’ re racking up to the national debt … we need to be as cautious as we can be.
” “ We can ’ t borrow enough money to solve the problem indefinitely , ” he told reporters .
This is , to be frank , an outrageous time to give a shit about the federal budget deficit , or about the debt ( the accumulated total of past deficits , plus interest ) .
The US in the very early stages of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Depression , and he true unemployment rate is likely around 15 to 20 percent .
In Michigan alone , unemployment claims amount to over 35 percent of total employment .
Congress ’ s stimulus measures to date have been helpful , but clearly inadequate in the face of the crisis before us .
The US needs investment on the scale of the New Deal or greater to meet this challenge , and worrying about deficits promises to strangle the recovery in the crib .
To be sure , there are times when worrying @ @ @ @ @ @ @ like the US that print their own currency can in principle always pay their debts , but there ’ s a risk that doing so would involve printing so much money that hyperinflation ensues .
If that were a real danger , the US should be thinking twice about massively expanding the deficit .
But inflation , let alone hyperinflation , is not a real danger at this moment .
According to the Fed ’ s preferred measure , inflation was well below its 2 percent target even before coronavirus hit .
Inflation @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to where we need it to be , as has been true for quite some time .
The Fed ’ s preferred measure of inflation excludes food and energy , but oil prices have fallen to historic lows too .
Another way to tell if the deficit is a problem is by checking Treasury yields , or the interest rate that investors earn on bonds they buy from the federal government .
If the federal government had to pay , say , 10 percent annual interest ( plus inflation ) on new borrowing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ either eat up much of its budget on interest payments , pay the debt off by printing money ( thereby risking hyperinflation ) , or else cut spending/raise taxes to pay off the debt the traditional way .
But that is not happening with Treasury yield .
For 30-year loans — the longest in term and thus riskiest of US government bonds , which force investors to predict what the federal government will be capable of paying back in 2050 — yields are now literally negative .
That means the federal government could @ @ @ @ @ @ @ its highest-yield bonds , to be paid back over three decades , and have to pay back less than $ 1 trillion .
Investors are literally paying the US governments to run deficit rights now .
They are practically begging Congress to take out more and bigger loans .
McConnell ’ s refusal to oblige will likely mean that fiscal stimulus is much smaller than it should be , gravely endangering the recovery .
This happened the last time around , too , and the consequence was an austerity-provoked slowdown in growth , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ same happened across Europe , and some politicians , including former British finance official George Osborne , are already urging austerity measures .
Austerity is not just a bad strategy for the United States .
It could — ironically — also be bad for Mitch McConnell and his party .
A deep persistent depression would arguably be fatal for Trump ’ s and the Senate GOP ’ s reelection prospects .
Big , ambitious stimulus could stave off that fate .
Democrats are willing to work with them on it , so this @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the Republicans insist on not doing more on the stimulus front .
By worrying about the deficit prematurely and not shoveling even more money to aid the recovery , McConnell and his fellow conservatives may end up hurting millions of Americans ’ lives — and their own political future .
The last deficit turn , and this one You can already see a turn toward deficit scolding emerging among the usual suspects .
Robert Samuelson , a Washington Post columnist and career deficit scold , has been railing against mainstream economists ’ emerging @ @ @ @ @ @ @ t particularly bad .
The coronavirus makes him want to return to Gilded Age-era borrowing practices , where debt was only undertaken to fight wars and buy Alaska .
“ Except for the Great Depression , this consensus generally served the country reasonably well , ” he concludes .
Cool !
GOP senators are even blunter .
“ Our annual deficit this year will approach $ 4 trillion .
We can ’ t continue on this course , ” Rand Paul admonished .
And a hard line was recently taken in a news @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ The spending surge has implications beyond the usual deficit tug of war , ” wrote the Times ’ s Carl Hulse .
“ It could prompt inflation , and it also leaves the nation far less prepared in the event of another emergency.
” Some of DC ’ s most venerable deficit hawks are , to their credit , urging deficit spending is the near term .
“ Combating this public health crisis and preventing the economy from falling into a depression will require a tremendous amount of resources — and if @ @ @ @ @ @ @ those resources from the future , it is now , ” Maya MacGuineas of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget ( CRFB ) admonished .
But groups like CRFB are already laying the groundwork for a pivot back to austerity , arguing , “ just as World War II was followed by years of fiscal responsibility to restore debt to historic levels , it will be important after the crisis and recovery to ensure that debt and deficits return to more sustainable levels.
” This kind of mentality , expressed so early @ @ @ @ @ @ @ threaten to cut short any recovery efforts much too soon .
This all feels very familiar .
In late 2008 , as the US was spiraling further into its worst economic downturn since the Great Depression , Christina Romer , the UC Berkeley economist whom Barack Obama had selected as his chief economist , prepared a memo of stimulus options for Obama to review .
To fully repair the economy by the first quarter of 2011 , she estimated , would require a “ combination of spending , taxes and transfers to states @ @ @ @ @ @ @ trillion over two years.
” The memo did not make it to Obama .
According to Noam Scheiber ’ s book The Escape Artists , when Romer showed her estimate to fellow Obama adviser Larry Summers , he dismissed the number as too high .
She then prepared a memo where the most expensive option was $ 1.2 trillion .
Summers still thought it too high , telling her , per Scheiber , “ $ 1.2 trillion is nonplanetary.
” That was his way of saying “ ridiculous ” or “ out of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and Obama signed , a $ 787 billion package .
Summers reportedly wanted the $ 1.8 trillion in stimulus as much as Romer did — he just thought Congress would reject it as a joke , and prevent the Obama administration from getting anything .
This was his calculation when Democrats were set to have 59 out of 100 Senate seats and a big House majority .
And Summers was probably right about the political prospects of a $ 1.8 trillion bill .
Obama ’ s much-too-small stimulus package was roughly $ 100 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to be because Republican Sens .
Susan Collins ( ME ) , Olympia Snowe ( ME ) , and Arlen Specter ( PA ) demanded it be made smaller in exchange for their votes , out of concern about the deficit .
In the wake of the stimulus passing , the Obama administration went from being forced into austerity by Congress to acquiescing to austerity of its own volition .
There was an internal battle between Romer and Summers , who urged Obama to focus on the recovery , and Treasury Secretary Tim @ @ @ @ @ @ @ who urged him to pivot to austerity .
Geithner and Orszag won .
In February 2010 , Obama appointed centrist Democrat Erskine Bowles and former Republican Sen. Alan Simpson to run a commission meant to slash the deficit .
The administration proposed a budget slashing deficits by $ 1.2 trillion over 10 years , including a freeze on domestic spending for three years .
“ We simply can not continue to spend as if deficits don ’ t have consequences ; as if waste doesn ’ t matter ; as if the hard-earned @ @ @ @ @ @ @ be treated like Monopoly money ; as if we can ignore this challenge for another generation , ” Obama admonished .
“ We can ’ t. ” Obama was wrong .
The austerity regime augured by his budget proposal and further entrenched under pressure by the new Republican House majority in 2011 deeply hurt the economic recovery .
In the third quarter of 2009 , per the Hutchins Center at the Brookings Institution ’ s estimates , fiscal policy added 2.78 percentage points to GDP growth , fueling the recovery .
All of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ states in the grip of austerity politics actually reduced growth .
But by the third quarter of 2011 , with austerity politics ascendant at the federal level as well , fiscal policy was reducing growth by 2.15 points .
Put another way , in the third quarter of 2011 , the economy grew at an annual rate of 0.9 percent .
If it hadn ’ t been for austerity , it would ’ ve grown by 3 percent .
The recovery would have proceeded much , much faster , and millions of people @ @ @ @ @ @ @ mental suffering of unemployment , without an austerity regime .
We know what happens when we allow austerity to happen during a deep recession .
There ’ s no excuse for Congress to allow this pattern to repeat itself , especially when Mitch McConnell and his party would stand to gain from additional stimulus .
In 2009 , Republicans at least had the excuse of facing off against a Democratic administration — sabotaging the recovery would help them politically .
That was a rational strategy to take then .
It ’ s not @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Forget the deficit , Republicans .
The economy and the people who make it run need help now .
Who knows — taking bold action now may even help you in November .
Every day at Vox , we aim to answer your most important questions and provide you , and our audience around the world , with information that has the power to save lives .
Our mission has never been more vital than it is in this moment : to empower you through understanding .
Vox ’ s work is reaching @ @ @ @ @ @ @ distinctive brand of explanatory journalism takes resources — particularly during a pandemic and an economic downturn .
Your financial contribution will not constitute a donation , but it will enable our staff to continue to offer free articles , videos , and podcasts at the quality and volume that this moment requires .
Please consider making a contribution to Vox today .

There comes a time in every recession when people, for reasons both sincere and cynical, start to get really worried about the federal budget deficit. Recessions lead to a collapse in tax revenue and increased use of safety net programs, and typically require extensive fiscal stimulus — all of which pushes up the deficit in the short run.
This last arose in early 2010, when unemployment was nearly 10 percent, and Barack Obama to his discredit encouraged the shift, having presided over the massive (and still inadequate) $787 billion recovery plan the previous year.
Now the shift is happening again, in the wake of the major $2 trillion stimulus bill signed by President Trump — and barely a month after mass unemployment began to set in due the Covid-19 crisis. “Record debt load poses risk of fiscal ‘tipping point’” blared a Washington Post headline, printed on the front page, above the fold, of the print edition.
More ominously, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell forcefully rejected the idea of offering aid to states and local governments that are hundreds of billions of dollars underwater, saying, “given the extraordinary numbers that we’re racking up to the national debt … we need to be as cautious as we can be.”
“We can’t borrow enough money to solve the problem indefinitely,” he told reporters.
This is, to be frank, an outrageous time to give a shit about the federal budget deficit, or about the debt (the accumulated total of past deficits, plus interest). The US in the very early stages of the worst economic downturn since the Great Depression, and the true unemployment rate is likely around 15 to 20 percent. In Michigan alone, unemployment claims amount to over 35 percent of total employment.
Congress’s stimulus measures to date have been helpful, but clearly inadequate in the face of the crisis before us. The US needs investment on the scale of the New Deal or greater to meet this challenge, and worrying about deficits promises to strangle the recovery in the crib.
To be sure, there are times when worrying about the debt makes sense. Countries like the US that print their own currency can in principle always pay their debts, but there’s a risk that doing so would involve printing so much money that hyperinflation ensues. If that were a real danger, the US should be thinking twice about massively expanding the deficit.
But inflation, let alone hyperinflation, is not a real danger at this moment. According to the Fed’s preferred measure, inflation was well below its 2 percent target even before coronavirus hit. Inflation is thus too low to get unemployment to where we need it to be, as has been true for quite some time. The Fed’s preferred measure of inflation excludes food and energy, but oil prices have fallen to historic lows too.
Another way to tell if the deficit is a problem is by checking Treasury yields, or the interest rate that investors earn on bonds they buy from the federal government. If the federal government had to pay, say, 10 percent annual interest (plus inflation) on new borrowing, that could quickly force it to either eat up much of its budget on interest payments, pay the debt off by printing money (thereby risking hyperinflation), or else cut spending/raise taxes to pay off the debt the traditional way.
But that is not happening with Treasury yields. For 30-year loans — the longest in term and thus riskiest of US government bonds, which force investors to predict what the federal government will be capable of paying back in 2050 — yields are now literally negative. That means the federal government could theoretically borrow $1 trillion entirely in its highest-yield bonds, to be paid back over three decades, and have to pay back less than $1 trillion.
Investors are literally paying the US governments to run deficits right now. They are practically begging Congress to take out more and bigger loans.
McConnell’s refusal to oblige will likely mean that fiscal stimulus is much smaller than it should be, gravely endangering the recovery. This happened the last time around, too, and the consequence was an austerity-provoked slowdown in growth, with mass unemployment the consequence. The same happened across Europe, and some politicians, including former British finance official George Osborne, are already urging austerity measures.
Austerity is not just a bad strategy for the United States. It could — ironically — also be bad for Mitch McConnell and his party. A deep persistent depression would arguably be fatal for Trump’s and the Senate GOP’s reelection prospects. Big, ambitious stimulus could stave off that fate. Democrats are willing to work with them on it, so this really would be a self-inflicted wound if the Republicans insist on not doing more on the stimulus front.
By worrying about the deficit prematurely and not shoveling even more money to aid the recovery, McConnell and his fellow conservatives may end up hurting millions of Americans’ lives — and their own political future.
The last deficit turn, and this one
You can already see a turn toward deficit scolding emerging among the usual suspects.
Robert Samuelson, a Washington Post columnist and career deficit scold, has been railing against mainstream economists’ emerging consensus that sustained budget deficits aren’t particularly bad. The coronavirus makes him want to return to Gilded Age-era borrowing practices, where debt was only undertaken to fight wars and buy Alaska. “Except for the Great Depression, this consensus generally served the country reasonably well,” he concludes. Cool!
GOP senators are even blunter. “Our annual deficit this year will approach $4 trillion. We can’t continue on this course,” Rand Paul admonished. And a hard line was recently taken in a news analysis in the New York Times. “The spending surge has implications beyond the usual deficit tug of war,” wrote the Times’s Carl Hulse. “It could prompt inflation, and it also leaves the nation far less prepared in the event of another emergency.”
Some of DC’s most venerable deficit hawks are, to their credit, urging deficit spending is the near term. “Combating this public health crisis and preventing the economy from falling into a depression will require a tremendous amount of resources — and if ever there were a time to borrow those resources from the future, it is now,” Maya MacGuineas of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB) admonished.
But groups like CRFB are already laying the groundwork for a pivot back to austerity, arguing, “just as World War II was followed by years of fiscal responsibility to restore debt to historic levels, it will be important after the crisis and recovery to ensure that debt and deficits return to more sustainable levels.” This kind of mentality, expressed so early in our economic crisis, can only threaten to cut short any recovery efforts much too soon.
This all feels very familiar. In late 2008, as the US was spiraling further into its worst economic downturn since the Great Depression, Christina Romer, the UC Berkeley economist whom Barack Obama had selected as his chief economist, prepared a memo of stimulus options for Obama to review.
To fully repair the economy by the first quarter of 2011, she estimated, would require a “combination of spending, taxes and transfers to states and localities … costing about $1.8 trillion over two years.”
The memo did not make it to Obama. According to Noam Scheiber’s book The Escape Artists, when Romer showed her estimate to fellow Obama adviser Larry Summers, he dismissed the number as too high. She then prepared a memo where the most expensive option was $1.2 trillion. Summers still thought it too high, telling her, per Scheiber, “$1.2 trillion is nonplanetary.” That was his way of saying “ridiculous” or “out of this world.” Congress eventually passed, and Obama signed, a $787 billion package.
Summers reportedly wanted the $1.8 trillion in stimulus as much as Romer did — he just thought Congress would reject it as a joke, and prevent the Obama administration from getting anything. This was his calculation when Democrats were set to have 59 out of 100 Senate seats and a big House majority.
And Summers was probably right about the political prospects of a $1.8 trillion bill. Obama’s much-too-small stimulus package was roughly $100 billion smaller than it was originally going to be because Republican Sens. Susan Collins (ME), Olympia Snowe (ME), and Arlen Specter (PA) demanded it be made smaller in exchange for their votes, out of concern about the deficit.
In the wake of the stimulus passing, the Obama administration went from being forced into austerity by Congress to acquiescing to austerity of its own volition. There was an internal battle between Romer and Summers, who urged Obama to focus on the recovery, and Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner and budget chief Peter Orszag, who urged him to pivot to austerity.
Geithner and Orszag won. In February 2010, Obama appointed centrist Democrat Erskine Bowles and former Republican Sen. Alan Simpson to run a commission meant to slash the deficit. The administration proposed a budget slashing deficits by $1.2 trillion over 10 years, including a freeze on domestic spending for three years.
“We simply cannot continue to spend as if deficits don’t have consequences; as if waste doesn’t matter; as if the hard-earned tax dollars of the American people can be treated like Monopoly money; as if we can ignore this challenge for another generation,” Obama admonished. “We can’t.”
Obama was wrong. The austerity regime augured by his budget proposal and further entrenched under pressure by the new Republican House majority in 2011 deeply hurt the economic recovery. In the third quarter of 2009, per the Hutchins Center at the Brookings Institution’s estimates, fiscal policy added 2.78 percentage points to GDP growth, fueling the recovery. All of that came from the federal government; states in the grip of austerity politics actually reduced growth.
But by the third quarter of 2011, with austerity politics ascendant at the federal level as well, fiscal policy was reducing growth by 2.15 points.
Put another way, in the third quarter of 2011, the economy grew at an annual rate of 0.9 percent. If it hadn’t been for austerity, it would’ve grown by 3 percent. The recovery would have proceeded much, much faster, and millions of people would have been spared the physical and mental suffering of unemployment, without an austerity regime.
We know what happens when we allow austerity to happen during a deep recession. There’s no excuse for Congress to allow this pattern to repeat itself, especially when Mitch McConnell and his party would stand to gain from additional stimulus.
In 2009, Republicans at least had the excuse of facing off against a Democratic administration — sabotaging the recovery would help them politically. That was a rational strategy to take then.
It’s not a rational strategy to take now. Forget the deficit, Republicans. The economy and the people who make it run need help now. Who knows — taking bold action now may even help you in November.


vox--2020-04-27--How the US stacks up to other countries in confirmed coronavirus cases

The United States has the most confirmed Covid-19 cases in the world , with more than 11 times the number of cases reported in China and more than four times as many cases as Italy and Spain , other epicenters of this global outbreak .
Confirmed infections in the US make up nearly a third of the world ’ s coronavirus cases .
America started off testing people for the coronavirus at a slower rate than most other developed countries , but the number of people diagnosed with Covid-19 in the US has risen more quickly than the country ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ t yet know the full extent of the outbreak , but America remains a focal point of the coronavirus pandemic .
The US health system was less prepared for a pandemic than those of other wealthy nations .
A high uninsured rate , high out-of-pocket health care costs , and low medical system capacity combined to make the country more vulnerable to a pathogen before the coronavirus ever came to our shores .
America ’ s lax response in the early days of the outbreak only compounded those structural problems .
“ Everyone @ @ @ @ @ @ @ no matter how you measure it , the US is far behind on this , ” Jen Kates , director of global health and HIV policy at the Kaiser Family Foundation , told Vox in mid-March of the initial coronavirus response .
Here ’ s how the number of confirmed cases in the US compares to select other countries , based on days since each country reached 100 confirmed cases , according to data we analyzed from the Johns Hopkins University coronavirus dashboard .
Note that the chart uses a log scale , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ equal distances between 100 , 1,000 , and 10,000 to mimic the exponential rate at which a contagion like the coronavirus spreads .
Here ’ s that same chart on a traditional linear scale .
As of April 27 , the Johns Hopkins research data shows more than 2.9 million confirmed cases worldwide , about 965,000 of which were in the US .
The actual number of cases is likely much higher .
About 207,000 people have died across the world from Covid-19 , including nearly 55,000 in the United States .
There @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the US are making an impact , but the country surpassed Iran , Italy , and China to have the highest number of confirmed cases in the world .
As the Wall Street Journal has reported , Chinese health officials have acknowledged they did not include 1,500 asymptomatic cases in their previous national tallies , but said that such cases would be counted starting on April 1 .
Based on reporting by the South China Morning Post , China may be undercounting asymptomatic cases to an even greater degree .
But remember , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ because people who have no or mild symptoms often don ’ t get tested .
Case numbers in the US have also far outpaced places like South Korea , Hong Kong , and Singapore , where the governments mobilized more quickly and certain cultural norms ( like mask-wearing ) may have helped slow the spread .
( Early signs of a second wave of cases have recently appeared in Singapore , however ; this was a fear among public health experts who worried societies would be too quick to reopen . )
Japan @ @ @ @ @ @ @ more quickly in recent weeks , and the government has been criticized over not having enough tests to properly judge the number of cases .
As America implements dramatic measures to control the spread of Covid-19 , with schools and businesses closing and general social distancing underway , the country is still struggling to understand the full scope of the outbreak because of the slow start of testing .
It has undeniably hindered the US response .
“ The testing failure is putting additional strain on our already challenged health system , ” @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Health System Tracker , said in March .
“ The combination of all of these factors will make the US worse off than similar countries.
” Testing is not only important because it gets people diagnosed and appropriate treatment if they have an infection , it also establishes how widespread a virus actually is .
Experts know the size of the problem , they know the rate at which people are being hospitalized or dying , and they can follow its movements .
But the United States faltered in rolling out coronavirus tests @ @ @ @ @ @ @ peers in tracing the outbreak .
A manufacturing problem with the test kits that were initially sent out in the field , and a delay in approving commercial tests , set the nation back in stopping or slowing down Covid-19 .
Even as testing capacity has ramped up in the US , as of April 27 , America is still lagging behind other places in the world hit hardest by the virus in the share of its population being tested .
The US has tested about far fewer people per million residents as @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s outbreak , and Germany , considered a model of rapid and widespread testing .
There have been nearly 5.4 million tests conducted in the US for its population of 329 million , but the number of tests per capita conducted varies greatly by state .
The US has finally started to catch up to the rest of the developed world in responding to Covid-19 .
But as case numbers and deaths continue to increase , we ’ re still learning the full scope of the crisis .
Every day at Vox @ @ @ @ @ @ @ important questions and provide you , and our audience around the world , with information that has the power to save lives .
Our mission has never been more vital than it is in this moment : to empower you through understanding .
Vox ’ s work is reaching more people than ever , but our distinctive brand of explanatory journalism takes resources — particularly during a pandemic and an economic downturn .
Your financial contribution will not constitute a donation , but it will enable our staff to continue to offer free @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the quality and volume that this moment requires .
Please consider making a contribution to Vox today .

The United States has the most confirmed Covid-19 cases in the world, with more than 15 times the number of cases reported in China and about six times as many cases as Italy and Spain, other epicenters of the global outbreak. Confirmed infections in the US make up around a third of the world’s coronavirus cases.
America started off testing people for the coronavirus at a slower rate than most other developed countries, but the number of people diagnosed with Covid-19 in the US has risen more quickly than the country’s peers abroad. We don’t yet know the full extent of the outbreak, but America remains a focal point of the coronavirus pandemic.
The US health system was less prepared for a pandemic than those of other wealthy nations. A high uninsured rate, high out-of-pocket health care costs, and low medical system capacity together make the country more vulnerable to a pathogen before the coronavirus ever came to our shores. America’s lax response in the early days of the outbreak only compounded those structural problems.
“Everyone working in this space would agree that no matter how you measure it, the US is far behind on this,” Jen Kates, director of global health and HIV policy at the Kaiser Family Foundation, told Vox in mid-March of the initial coronavirus response.
Here’s how the number of confirmed cases in the US compares to select other countries, based on days since each country reached 100 confirmed cases, according to data we analyzed from the Johns Hopkins University coronavirus dashboard.
Note that the chart uses a log scale, meaning that the Y-axis goes up in equal distances between 100, 1,000, and 10,000 to mimic the exponential rate at which a contagion like the coronavirus spreads.
Here’s that same chart on a traditional linear scale.
As of May 11, the Johns Hopkins research data shows more than 4.1 million confirmed cases worldwide, about 1.3 million of which were in the US. The actual number of cases is likely much higher. About 280,000 people have died across the world from Covid-19, including nearly 80,000 in the United States. There are signs that social distancing measures in the US are making an impact, but the country surpassed Iran, Italy, and China to have the highest number of confirmed cases in the world.
As the Wall Street Journal has reported, Chinese health officials have acknowledged they did not include 1,500 asymptomatic cases in their previous national tallies, but said that such cases would be counted starting on April 1. Based on reporting by the South China Morning Post, China may be undercounting asymptomatic cases to an even greater degree. But remember, most countries’ numbers are probably low because people who have no or mild symptoms often don’t get tested.
Case numbers in the US have also far outpaced places like South Korea, Hong Kong, and Singapore, where the governments mobilized more quickly and certain cultural norms (like mask-wearing) may have helped slow the spread. (Early signs of a second wave of cases have appeared in Singapore, however; this was a fear among public health experts who worried societies would be too quick to reopen.)
Japan’s case numbers have started rising more quickly in recent weeks, and the government has been criticized over not having enough tests to properly judge the number of cases.
As America implements dramatic measures to control the spread of Covid-19, with schools and businesses closing and general social distancing underway, the country is still struggling to understand the full scope of the outbreak because of the slow start of testing. It has undeniably hindered the US response.
“The testing failure is putting additional strain on our already challenged health system,” Cynthia Cox, director of the Peterson-Kaiser Health System Tracker, said in March. “The combination of all of these factors will make the US worse off than similar countries.”
Testing is not only important because it gets people diagnosed and appropriate treatment if they have an infection, it also establishes how widespread a virus actually is. Experts know the size of the problem, they know the rate at which people are being hospitalized or dying, and they can follow its movements.
But the United States faltered in rolling out coronavirus tests, initially putting America behind its economic peers in tracing the outbreak. A manufacturing problem with the test kits that were initially sent out in the field, and a delay in approving commercial tests, set the nation back in stopping or slowing down Covid-19.
Even as testing capacity has ramped up in the US, as of May 4 America is still lagging behind other places in the world hit hardest by the virus in the share of its population being tested. The US has still tested fewer people per million residents than Italy, a focal point of Europe’s outbreak, and Germany, which is considered a model of rapid and widespread testing.
There have been about 9 million tests conducted in the US for its population of 329 million, but the number of tests per capita conducted varies greatly by state.
The US has finally started to catch up to the rest of the developed world in responding to Covid-19. But as case numbers and deaths continue to increase, we’re still learning the full scope of the crisis.


vox--2020-04-28--The debate about whether expanded unemployment insurance is too generous, explained

Fran , a nursing aide in Georgia , has lost all but two clients amid the coronavirus crisis .
She ’ s an essential worker , but the pay isn ’ t good — $ 8 to $ 12 an hour , depending on the client .
Her husband was laid off from his factory job at the start of the month because of the economic shutdown , and the unemployment benefits he receives are now keeping them both afloat .
She ’ s heard the chatter about expanded unemployment insurance being too generous , but she ’ s not @ @ @ @ @ @ @ not their fault that their unemployment is more , they didn ’ t want to stop working , ” she told me .
“ A lot of people are living on the unemployment because they didn ’ t have a choice , they were out of work .
Most of the problem lies with how much essential workers were getting in the first place.
” The Coronavirus Aid , Relief , and Economic Security Act , or the CARES Act , signed into law in March made a major change to the American @ @ @ @ @ @ @ pandemic , which has left millions of people out of work .
It tacks on an extra $ 600 per week to unemployment benefits through July and expands the pool of potential recipients to people who are self-employed , freelancers , and contract workers who are usually ineligible to collect .
The point of the expansion is two-fold : to help people stay afloat during the economic shutdown , and to keep them at home .
When the $ 2.2 trillion stimulus package was being debated , some Republicans in the Senate argued @ @ @ @ @ @ @ workers , noting that for many people , unemployment benefits may actually amount to more than they ’ d be paid if they were going to work .
Indeed , in many states , beefed-up unemployment insurance is greater than the average wages being replaced .
Beyond the politics of it , the situation has caused real tensions for people affected .
Expanded unemployment is a source of animosity among some essential workers who realize they ’ re making less than they would if they were unemployed .
Some would rather quit , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ re safe , and collect benefits , but they ’ re in a tough spot — unemployment is generally for people who are fired , laid off , or furloughed , not people who voluntarily leave their jobs .
And as certain states begin to reopen parts of their economies , more people are going to face a similar conundrum : go back to work and put their health at risk , or stay home and bet on unemployment , even though collecting benefits is far from guaranteed .
Typically , unemployment benefits @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of a person ’ s weekly earnings , explained Gary Burtless , a senior fellow in economic studies at the Brookings Institution .
In February , before the pandemic took hold , the average unemployment benefit nationally was $ 387 , though it varies a lot by state — the average in Mississippi was $ 215 , in Massachusetts , it was $ 550 .
Adding on an extra $ 600 makes a big difference .
“ It just transforms the whole system , ” Burtless said .
“ For people with average @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s a very big weekly benefit if they ever receive it.
” More than 26 million people have filed new jobless claims over the span of five weeks amid the pandemic and accompanying economic shutdown .
Unemployment systems across the country have been jammed , meaning many people haven ’ t begun collecting benefits at all — more than two-thirds of jobless Americans didn ’ t get unemployment benefits in March .
But if and when people do get the money they ’ re entitled to , for many , it will make @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the point .
“ Part of the way I like to frame this is there are different problems we ’ re trying to solve for , ” said Bradley Hardy , a professor of public administration and policy at American University .
“ The first part of the problem providing liquidity to individuals and families so they can pay for their lives , maintain their wellbeing , economically and otherwise.
” In other words , it ’ s meant to keep people afloat .
The expanded benefits are also supposed to keep people @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , helping to bring down numbers of coronavirus cases , the ultimate goal .
The benefits are supposed to keep people who are laid off or furloughed in their homes instead of knocking on doors trying desperately to get reemployed so they can feed themselves or their families .
And in many states , unemployment benefits — if you can get them — are a good deal , and indeed , a better deal than going to work .
According to an analysis from the New York Times , workers in more than @ @ @ @ @ @ @ unemployment benefits than their regular salaries , on average .
There ’ s a tension here , but not the one some Republicans are stressing While the CARES Act was being debated , some Republican lawmakers flagged that expanded unemployment benefits would likely be more than many people make at their jobs .
“ This bill pays you more not to work than if you were working , ” Sen. Lindsey Graham ( R-SC ) told reporters at a press conference in March .
The concern he and others expressed was that the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ back to work .
But part of the plan is to keep people home instead of scrambling to find a job .
The expanded benefits are temporary — as it stands , they only last through July — and many people prefer to work anyway .
Brandon Lee , a sanitation worker in Ohio , makes $ 14 an hour , which amounts to $ 560 a week if he ’ s getting 40 hours , which he sometimes doesn ’ t .
He has a 10-month-old son and looked into unemployment so @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of him , but decided against it .
“ I ’ d rather be working , honestly , but I ’ m kind of happy I ’ m working , ” he told me .
But many workers like Lee who have been deemed essential and are still on the job have noticed that unemployment is indeed a more lucrative deal than their own situations .
Many of the jobs deemed “ essential ” — at grocery stores , fast food restaurants , pharmacies , elder care , etc .
— are also @ @ @ @ @ @ @ continuing to go to work , their costs are actually increasing because their kids are home and they ’ re having to pay extra for child care .
One Minnesota factory worker told me they make $ 16 an hour but are now paying $ 10 an hour for child care .
“ There is a tension there , and the tension is whether there will eventually be some perceived unfairness of treating people who are staying at home and trying to avoid the risk of infection while these people who are exposing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ getting a pay increase , ” Burtless said .
Some businesses are offering hazard pay , but it ’ s being handled on a case-by-case basis .
There are some proposals in Congress to include hazard pay for essential workers in upcoming legislation , but it ’ s not clear any of those proposals will become law .
Many essential workers are stuck .
Some of them would rather not work and put their health at risk , but generally , people who leave their jobs voluntarily aren ’ t eligible to collect @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , but there are no guarantees they ’ ll be able to collect benefits .
Kristi , a Family Dollar worker in Georgia , told me she normally makes $ 10.50 an hour but has now had her pay temporarily bumped up to $ 12.50 an hour by the company .
She ’ s aware that unemployment would be a more lucrative and safer option , but she ’ s worried if she quits and applies , she won ’ t be approved .
“ If I say , look , I want @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , then , okay well you lost your job and you can ’ t collect unemployment , ” she said .
“ I was looking into that , if there ’ s some loophole where I can say , look , I ’ m terrified to do this , and I don ’ t want to be exposed to these people that aren ’ t following the rules , that don ’ t take it seriously , for $ 12.50 an hour.
” Others are taking the chance .
Eva Coyle was working @ @ @ @ @ @ @ North Carolina when the pandemic hit and grew increasingly concerned about her safety .
When her store offered a leave of absence , she took it , opting to “ throw myself at the mercy ” of the social safety net .
She ’ s over 65 and collects Social Security and is on Medicare , and she ’ s applied for food stamps and unemployment .
“ You get to a certain age , and I ’ m not somebody who ’ s looking for a career anymore or a full-time job @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on Social Security , so I have to continue to work and I ’ m not quite sure what the future holds for me , ” she said .
“ I have no savings , so I ’ m in the boat with so many other Americans , really no backup.
” As some state economies open back up , unemployment benefits are going to be a big part of the conversation Thus far , essential workers have largely been the ones experiencing this scenario of having to work when they ’ d @ @ @ @ @ @ @ but as states begin reopening their economies , it ’ s something more Americans will face .
Georgia began to lift some restrictions and allow some businesses to reopen on Friday .
Colorado is starting to do the same .
That means people are being recalled to work .
Some people would , understandably , rather stay home instead of going back on the job , but it ’ s not clear they ’ ll be able to collect unemployment .
As a Reuters article recently noted , people who are afraid of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ work may not get unemployment benefits .
Being too scared to work isn ’ t a qualifier .
Jess Clark , a self-employed tattoo artist in Georgia , would rather continue to social distance but instead is going to have to go back to work .
She ’ s been out of work for six weeks and because of delays in the system was never able to collect benefits at all .
“ Many of us are being forced to go back to work because we no longer are eligible for the unemployment @ @ @ @ @ @ @ receive , ” Clark said in an email .
A benefits system with weeks upon weeks of delays where many people never are able to collect at all isn ’ t too generous , it ’ s not generous enough .
As people are asked to go back to work , there certainly will be some who try to make a calculation as to whether they can continue to stay home and stay safe instead of putting their health at risk .
Or people might look for different types of jobs .
But @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to tease out what is driving decisions .
“ To the degree that there are vacancies , how much of this is really explained by the fear of coronavirus , which is legitimate ?
” Hardy said .
The last recession is also fresh in many workers ’ memories , including how hard it was to find a job for many people .
Staying at home and collecting unemployment benefits set to expire in a few months isn ’ t a risk-free calculation .
“ You might be quite legitimately fearful that if @ @ @ @ @ @ @ you ’ ve been furloughed , it may take you a very , very long time to find another job that pays the bills , ” Burtless said .
“ And that is a reasonable fear based on what we just went through from 2008 to 2015 or so .
Those spells of unemployment were extremely long .
”

Fran, a nursing aide in Georgia, has lost all but two clients amid the coronavirus crisis. She’s an essential worker, but the pay isn’t good — $8 to $12 an hour, depending on the client. Her husband was laid off from his factory job at the start of the month because of the economic shutdown, and the unemployment benefits he receives are now keeping them both afloat. She’s heard the chatter about expanded unemployment insurance being too generous, but she’s not having it.
“It’s not their fault that their unemployment is more, they didn’t want to stop working,” she told me. “A lot of people are living on the unemployment because they didn’t have a choice, they were out of work. Most of the problem lies with how much essential workers were getting in the first place.”
The Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security Act, or the CARES Act, signed into law in March made a major change to the American unemployment insurance system to respond to the pandemic, which has left millions of people out of work. It tacks on an extra $600 per week to unemployment benefits through July and expands the pool of potential recipients to people who are self-employed, freelancers, and contract workers who are usually ineligible to collect. The point of the expansion is two-fold: to help people stay afloat during the economic shutdown, and to keep them at home.
When the $2.2 trillion stimulus package was being debated, some Republicans in the Senate argued it was being too nice to unemployed workers, noting that for many people, unemployment benefits may actually amount to more than they’d be paid if they were going to work. Indeed, in many states, beefed-up unemployment insurance is greater than the average wages being replaced.
Beyond the politics of it, the situation has caused real tensions for people affected. Expanded unemployment is a source of animosity among some essential workers who realize they’re making less than they would if they were unemployed. Some would rather quit, stay at home, where they’re safe, and collect benefits, but they’re in a tough spot — unemployment is generally for people who are fired, laid off, or furloughed, not people who voluntarily leave their jobs. And as certain states begin to reopen parts of their economies, more people are going to face a similar conundrum: go back to work and put their health at risk, or stay home and bet on unemployment, even though collecting benefits is far from guaranteed.
Adding an extra $600 a week makes a real difference. It’s supposed to.
Typically, unemployment benefits were meant to replace about 40 percent of a person’s weekly earnings, explained Gary Burtless, a senior fellow in economic studies at the Brookings Institution. In February, before the pandemic took hold, the average unemployment benefit nationally was $387, though it varies a lot by state — the average in Mississippi was $215, in Massachusetts, it was $550. Adding on an extra $600 makes a big difference.
“It just transforms the whole system,” Burtless said. “For people with average pay or below-average pay, it’s a very big weekly benefit if they ever receive it.”
More than 26 million people have filed new jobless claims over the span of five weeks amid the pandemic and accompanying economic shutdown. Unemployment systems across the country have been jammed, meaning many people haven’t begun collecting benefits at all — more than two-thirds of jobless Americans didn’t get unemployment benefits in March. But if and when people do get the money they’re entitled to, for many, it will make a real impact. That’s the point.
“Part of the way I like to frame this is there are different problems we’re trying to solve for,” said Bradley Hardy, a professor of public administration and policy at American University. “The first part of the problem providing liquidity to individuals and families so they can pay for their lives, maintain their wellbeing, economically and otherwise.”
In other words, it’s meant to keep people afloat.
The expanded benefits are also supposed to keep people home and allow them to social distance, helping to bring down numbers of coronavirus cases, the ultimate goal. The benefits are supposed to keep people who are laid off or furloughed in their homes instead of knocking on doors trying desperately to get reemployed so they can feed themselves or their families.
And in many states, unemployment benefits — if you can get them — are a good deal, and indeed, a better deal than going to work. According to an analysis from the New York Times, workers in more than half of states will get more in unemployment benefits than their regular salaries, on average.
There’s a tension here, but not the one some Republicans are stressing
While the CARES Act was being debated, some Republican lawmakers flagged that expanded unemployment benefits would likely be more than many people make at their jobs. “This bill pays you more not to work than if you were working,” Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) told reporters at a press conference in March. The concern he and others expressed was that the expanded benefits would disincentivize people from going back to work.
But part of the plan is to keep people home instead of scrambling to find a job. The expanded benefits are temporary — as it stands, they only last through July — and many people prefer to work anyway.
Brandon Lee, a sanitation worker in Ohio, makes $14 an hour, which amounts to $560 a week if he’s getting 40 hours, which he sometimes doesn’t. He has a 10-month-old son and looked into unemployment so he could stay home and take care of him, but decided against it. “I’d rather be working, honestly, but I’m kind of happy I’m working,” he told me.
But many workers like Lee who have been deemed essential and are still on the job have noticed that unemployment is indeed a more lucrative deal than their own situations. Many of the jobs deemed “essential” — at grocery stores, fast food restaurants, pharmacies, elder care, etc. — are also low-paying. For some parents who are continuing to go to work, their costs are actually increasing because their kids are home and they’re having to pay extra for child care. One Minnesota factory worker told me they make $16 an hour but are now paying $10 an hour for child care.
“There is a tension there, and the tension is whether there will eventually be some perceived unfairness of treating people who are staying at home and trying to avoid the risk of infection while these people who are exposing themselves to that risk are not necessarily getting a pay increase,” Burtless said.
Some businesses are offering hazard pay, but it’s being handled on a case-by-case basis. There are some proposals in Congress to include hazard pay for essential workers in upcoming legislation, but it’s not clear any of those proposals will become law.
Many essential workers are stuck. Some of them would rather not work and put their health at risk, but generally, people who leave their jobs voluntarily aren’t eligible to collect unemployment. They can quit and apply, but there are no guarantees they’ll be able to collect benefits.
Kristi, a Family Dollar worker in Georgia, told me she normally makes $10.50 an hour but has now had her pay temporarily bumped up to $12.50 an hour by the company. She’s aware that unemployment would be a more lucrative and safer option, but she’s worried if she quits and applies, she won’t be approved.
“If I say, look, I want to be at home with my family, then, okay well you lost your job and you can’t collect unemployment,” she said. “I was looking into that, if there’s some loophole where I can say, look, I’m terrified to do this, and I don’t want to be exposed to these people that aren’t following the rules, that don’t take it seriously, for $12.50 an hour.”
Others are taking the chance. Eva Coyle was working part-time at a local grocery store in North Carolina when the pandemic hit and grew increasingly concerned about her safety. When her store offered a leave of absence, she took it, opting to “throw myself at the mercy” of the social safety net. She’s over 65 and collects Social Security and is on Medicare, and she’s applied for food stamps and unemployment.
“You get to a certain age, and I’m not somebody who’s looking for a career anymore or a full-time job, but I can’t live on Social Security, so I have to continue to work and I’m not quite sure what the future holds for me,” she said. “I have no savings, so I’m in the boat with so many other Americans, really no backup.”
As some state economies open back up, unemployment benefits are going to be a big part of the conversation
Thus far, essential workers have largely been the ones experiencing this scenario of having to work when they’d rather stay home and collect unemployment, but as states begin reopening their economies, it’s something more Americans will face.
Georgia began to lift some restrictions and allow some businesses to reopen on Friday. Colorado is starting to do the same. That means people are being recalled to work.
Some people would, understandably, rather stay home instead of going back on the job, but it’s not clear they’ll be able to collect unemployment. As a Reuters article recently noted, people who are afraid of getting the coronavirus when going back to work may not get unemployment benefits. Being too scared to work isn’t a qualifier.
Jess Clark, a self-employed tattoo artist in Georgia, would rather continue to social distance but instead is going to have to go back to work. She’s been out of work for six weeks and because of delays in the system was never able to collect benefits at all. “Many of us are being forced to go back to work because we no longer are eligible for the unemployment benefit many of us have yet to receive,” Clark said in an email.
A benefits system with weeks upon weeks of delays where many people never are able to collect at all isn’t too generous, it’s not generous enough.
As people are asked to go back to work, there certainly will be some who try to make a calculation as to whether they can continue to stay home and stay safe instead of putting their health at risk. Or people might look for different types of jobs. But it’s going to be difficult to tease out what is driving decisions. “To the degree that there are vacancies, how much of this is really explained by the fear of coronavirus, which is legitimate?” Hardy said.
The last recession is also fresh in many workers’ memories, including how hard it was to find a job for many people. Staying at home and collecting unemployment benefits set to expire in a few months isn’t a risk-free calculation.
“You might be quite legitimately fearful that if you turn down the job from which you’ve been furloughed, it may take you a very, very long time to find another job that pays the bills,” Burtless said. “And that is a reasonable fear based on what we just went through from 2008 to 2015 or so. Those spells of unemployment were extremely long.”


vox--2020-04-28--The successful Asian coronavirus-fighting strategy America refuses to embrace

East Asian countries were way ahead of much of the West in adopting widespread mask-wearing as a means to reduce transmission of the coronavirus .
And complaints about the Trump administration ’ s inability to ramp up testing to the kind of levels successfully used to curb a once-major outbreak in South Korea have been endemic for months .
But there ’ s something else Asian countries do to control the spread that seems almost unthinkable in the United States : centralized isolation of people who test positive for Covid-19 and their close contacts .
The implementation of these systems @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to local circumstances and preferences .
But from China to Hong Kong to Taiwan to Korea , the broad outline is the same : You don ’ t tell sick people to go home where they can infect their families and roommates ; you send them someplace set aside for the purpose .
Since some of the people isolated end up being asymptomatic , it ’ s inconvenient to be forced outside of the home .
But for the many people who do get sick , just not sick enough to require intensive @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s convenient to have a safe and well-monitored place to recuperate .
Isolation is the less warm-and-fuzzy side of the “ more testing and more contact tracing ” mantra .
But it does seem to work .
Singapore , for example , had coronavirus well contained but didn ’ t practice centralized quarantining among its population of migrant workers — only to see their dorms become a major outbreak hot spot .
Many Americans instinctively resist this idea , or assert that other Americans would .
But the fact is the US @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to curb the pandemic , and centralized isolation measures might make it easier to shift to more freedom on other fronts .
Meanwhile , the country is currently well-provisioned with vacant hotel rooms and college dorms that could be used for the purpose .
And even if mandatory isolation turns out to be a bridge too far politically , a purely voluntary quarantine system could still do an incredible amount of good .
According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention ( CDC ) and other American public health institutions , the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ sick with Covid-19 and don ’ t require hospitalization is to try to isolate yourself at home to protect your family members or roommates .
“ As much as possible , stay in a specific room and away from other people and pets in your home , ” says the CDC .
“ Also , you should use a separate bathroom , if available.
” For many people , this simply isn ’ t possible in practice .
The New York Times reporter Dana Goldstein described her experience of getting sick only to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ succumb to infection since there was no practical way to isolate inside their New York City apartment .
At the opposite end of the spectrum , my family owns a rowhouse in Washington , DC , that includes a basement apartment with a kitchen , washer-dryer , and separate entrance .
We normally rent it out on Airbnb or use it as guest lodging when family or friends from out of town want to visit .
None of that is possible during the pandemic , so right now it ’ s my home @ @ @ @ @ @ @ set it up as quarantine quarters , stocked with easily 14 days ’ worth of nonperishable food and everything else I ’ d need in the event that I start showing symptoms .
But while this is nice for me , it ’ s an unrealistic at-home standard for the typical person , and it ’ s not even clear that isolating in the basement would work .
Chris Cuomo ended up living out my hypothetical basement isolation plan when he was diagnosed with Covid-19 , but his wife got sick anyway .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ how that happened , though after reading a preliminary study about how there ’ s some evidence the coronavirus could spread via air conditioning ducts , it ’ s possible centralized climate control systems could negate efforts to isolate at home .
Standard practice in developed Asian countries , by contrast , is to isolate the moderately — or often even just potentially — ill outside the home .
Hong Kong has more metro riders than New York in a city with a similar population size and significantly fewer miles of track .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ overall population density than New York City , that ’ s because nearly 40 percent of the territory is composed of designated country parks that are free of development .
The built-up portion of Hong Kong is hyper-dense , and the average apartment is smaller than 500 square feet .
But despite these factors and very close economic linkages to China , Hong Kong contained the crisis — not just with tests but with centralized isolation .
Mike Bird , a Wall Street Journal financial markets correspondent based in Hong Kong , describes @ @ @ @ @ @ @ faced .
Simply because a friend fell sick , Bird was placed in a spartan but comfortable isolation camp for a 14-day spell .
Korea , which simply had too many cases to isolate this aggressively , needed to adopt a tiered system .
Moderately ill people are sent to an isolation center , and only genuinely asymptomatic cases are told to stay home and self-quarantine there .
But people ordered to stay home aren ’ t left on their own .
The government sends “ quarantine care packages ” with groceries , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on how to safely dispose of potentially contaminated trash .
The Koreans have also been experimenting with location-tracking bracelets to enforce self-quarantine orders .
At the other end of the spectrum , case volumes in Taiwan have been persistently low enough that hospitals are the centralized isolation facilities .
In mainland China , where the outbreak raged out of control after weeks of denial and cover-up from authorities , a wide suite of tough measures was eventually brought to bear to get things under control .
A large team of researchers led by @ @ @ @ @ @ @ data and determined that of everything they did , “ early detection and isolation of cases was estimated to prevent more infections than travel restrictions and contact reductions.
” This is what Americans are talking about when they emphasize the centrality of more testing to getting the country safely moving again .
But the “ isolation ” part of the strategy is important .
If you test people and keep them trapped inside with their families , you ’ re not accomplishing nearly as much as you would if you actually isolated them @ @ @ @ @ @ @ t work in America ?
A common reaction in the United States is that while this might work fine in Asian countries , there ’ s no way it would fly in America .
As Ezra Klein writes , “ the US is a very different country , with a more mistrustful , individualistic culture.
” That might be so .
But it ’ s worth recalling that in 2017 , hundreds of thousands of Koreans took to the streets in a sustained mass protest movement to get a corrupt president booted from @ @ @ @ @ @ @ rocked Hong Kong throughout 2019 was less successful , but the courage and tenacity of those protesters showed pretty clearly that Asian authorities are not dealing with a sheep-like public or one that puts unquestioning trust in incumbent governments .
Mass publics have been willing to embrace quarantine measures in part because they make sense .
The US government ’ s official stance is that it ’ s not safe for a sick person to have contact with her roommates , family , or even house pets ; given that reality , it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ seems to require justification .
It ’ s also more humane .
Nobody wants to listen to a loved one suffer alone in the room next door without comfort or assistance .
Even people who don ’ t require acute care benefit from some kind of attention and support , and that ’ s best provided by trained personnel in an organized setting .
Last but by no means least , stricter restrictions on the activities of those exposed allows for a less restrictive overall environment .
America ’ s current policy restricts @ @ @ @ @ @ @ outdoor space , generates paranoia about passing encounters with runners or cyclists , and discourages people from seeking routine health care for ailments that are n't Covid-19 .
But actual sick people are sent home to potentially infect their loved ones .
It ’ s not so much that the US is doing more than Asia to prioritize liberty over public health as that it ’ s ignoring evidence on which restrictions of liberty are effective .
Even if mandatory centralized quarantine does prove to be a bridge too far for the American @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the status quo is there ’ s no good way for people to voluntarily isolate themselves from other members of the household .
If states and cities began to invest in quarantine facilities — like by buying out hotels , which are currently hurting for lack of customers — opening them up on a voluntary basis could do an enormous amount of good .
But especially for jurisdictions with smaller caseloads that are eager to “ open up , ” it ’ s really worth thinking harder about what the plan is when @ @ @ @ @ @ @ isolation measures would likely ultimately be cheaper and less invasive than ping-ponging in and out of lockdown .
It ’ s what the most successful coronavirus-fighting countries are doing .
And since the US has already turned almost every aspect of daily life upside down , it should think about trying a similar strategy , too .
Every day at Vox , we aim to answer your most important questions and provide you , and our audience around the world , with information that has the power to save lives .
Our mission @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is in this moment : to empower you through understanding .
Vox ’ s work is reaching more people than ever , but our distinctive brand of explanatory journalism takes resources — particularly during a pandemic and an economic downturn .
Your financial contribution will not constitute a donation , but it will enable our staff to continue to offer free articles , videos , and podcasts at the quality and volume that this moment requires .
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East Asian countries were way ahead of much of the West in adopting widespread mask-wearing as a means to reduce transmission of the coronavirus. And complaints about the Trump administration’s inability to ramp up testing to the kind of levels successfully used to curb a once-major outbreak in South Korea have been endemic for months.
But there’s something else Asian countries do to control the spread that seems almost unthinkable in the United States: centralized isolation of people who test positive for Covid-19 and their close contacts.
The implementation of these systems varies from country to country, according to local circumstances and preferences. But from China to Hong Kong to Taiwan to Korea, the broad outline is the same: You don’t tell sick people to go home where they can infect their families and roommates; you send them someplace set aside for the purpose. Since some of the people isolated end up being asymptomatic, it’s inconvenient to be forced outside of the home. But for the many people who do get sick, just not sick enough to require intensive care in a hospital setting, it’s convenient to have a safe and well-monitored place to recuperate.
Isolation is the less warm-and-fuzzy side of the “more testing and more contact tracing” mantra. But it does seem to work. Singapore, for example, had coronavirus well contained but didn’t practice centralized quarantining among its population of migrant workers — only to see their dorms become a major outbreak hot spot.
Many Americans instinctively resist this idea, or assert that other Americans would. But the fact is the US has already accepted drastic restrictions on activity to curb the pandemic, and centralized isolation measures might make it easier to shift to more freedom on other fronts. Meanwhile, the country is currently well-provisioned with vacant hotel rooms and college dorms that could be used for the purpose. And even if mandatory isolation turns out to be a bridge too far politically, a purely voluntary quarantine system could still do an incredible amount of good.
America’s current policy: Test and go home
According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and other American public health institutions, the best thing to do if you get sick with Covid-19 and don’t require hospitalization is to try to isolate yourself at home to protect your family members or roommates.
“As much as possible, stay in a specific room and away from other people and pets in your home,” says the CDC. “Also, you should use a separate bathroom, if available.”
For many people, this simply isn’t possible in practice. The New York Times reporter Dana Goldstein described her experience of getting sick only to see her husband and young daughter also succumb to infection since there was no practical way to isolate inside their New York City apartment.
11. We lacked masks, surgical gloves and a second bathroom. My husband was taking on all childcare and could not also disinfect every item I touched. In a functioning system, medical supplies would be provided to affected families, or sick patients would be cared for elsewhere. — Dana Goldstein (@DanaGoldstein) March 31, 2020
At the opposite end of the spectrum, my family owns a rowhouse in Washington, DC, that includes a basement apartment with a kitchen, washer-dryer, and separate entrance. We normally rent it out on Airbnb or use it as guest lodging when family or friends from out of town want to visit. None of that is possible during the pandemic, so right now it’s my home office. But I’ve also set it up as quarantine quarters, stocked with easily 14 days’ worth of nonperishable food and everything else I’d need in the event that I start showing symptoms.
But while this is nice for me, it’s an unrealistic at-home standard for the typical person, and it’s not even clear that isolating in the basement would work. Chris Cuomo ended up living out my hypothetical basement isolation plan when he was diagnosed with Covid-19, but his wife got sick anyway.
It’s not 100 percent clear how that happened, though after reading a preliminary study about how there’s some evidence the coronavirus could spread via air conditioning ducts, it’s possible centralized climate control systems could negate efforts to isolate at home.
Standard practice in developed Asian countries, by contrast, is to isolate the moderately — or often even just potentially — ill outside the home.
Asia’s policy: Isolate in a dedicated facility
Hong Kong has more metro riders than New York in a city with a similar population size and significantly fewer miles of track. And while Hong Kong has a lower overall population density than New York City, that’s because nearly 40 percent of the territory is composed of designated country parks that are free of development. The built-up portion of Hong Kong is hyper-dense, and the average apartment is smaller than 500 square feet.
But despite these factors and very close economic linkages to China, Hong Kong contained the crisis — not just with tests but with centralized isolation.
Mike Bird, a Wall Street Journal financial markets correspondent based in Hong Kong, describes a very different situation from what Goldstein faced. Simply because a friend fell sick, Bird was placed in a spartan but comfortable isolation camp for a 14-day spell.
What real contact tracing looks like : A friend caught covid-19, so I was put in a HK quarantine camp for close contacts 'til it'd been 14 days since I'd seen them. Been out a little while now, never had symptoms of any sort. More natural light, faster wifi than my flat. pic.twitter.com/xAJwEH6MUe — Mike Brrrrrd (@Birdyword) April 5, 2020
Korea, which simply had too many cases to isolate this aggressively, needed to adopt a tiered system. Moderately ill people are sent to an isolation center, and only genuinely asymptomatic cases are told to stay home and self-quarantine there. But people ordered to stay home aren’t left on their own. The government sends “quarantine care packages” with groceries, masks, hand sanitizer, and instructions on how to safely dispose of potentially contaminated trash. The Koreans have also been experimenting with location-tracking bracelets to enforce self-quarantine orders.
At the other end of the spectrum, case volumes in Taiwan have been persistently low enough that hospitals are the centralized isolation facilities.
In mainland China, where the outbreak raged out of control after weeks of denial and cover-up from authorities, a wide suite of tough measures was eventually brought to bear to get things under control. A large team of researchers led by the University of Southampton looked at Chinese data and determined that of everything they did, “early detection and isolation of cases was estimated to prevent more infections than travel restrictions and contact reductions.”
This is what Americans are talking about when they emphasize the centrality of more testing to getting the country safely moving again. But the “isolation” part of the strategy is important. If you test people and keep them trapped inside with their families, you’re not accomplishing nearly as much as you would if you actually isolated them.
Are we sure this wouldn’t work in America?
A common reaction in the United States is that while this might work fine in Asian countries, there’s no way it would fly in America. As Ezra Klein writes, “the US is a very different country, with a more mistrustful, individualistic culture.”
That might be so. But it’s worth recalling that in 2017, hundreds of thousands of Koreans took to the streets in a sustained mass protest movement to get a corrupt president booted from office. The incredible protest movement that rocked Hong Kong throughout 2019 was less successful, but the courage and tenacity of those protesters showed pretty clearly that Asian authorities are not dealing with a sheep-like public or one that puts unquestioning trust in incumbent governments.
Mass publics have been willing to embrace quarantine measures in part because they make sense. The US government’s official stance is that it’s not safe for a sick person to have contact with her roommates, family, or even house pets; given that reality, it’s the failure to isolate that seems to require justification. It’s also more humane. Nobody wants to listen to a loved one suffer alone in the room next door without comfort or assistance. Even people who don’t require acute care benefit from some kind of attention and support, and that’s best provided by trained personnel in an organized setting.
Last but by no means least, stricter restrictions on the activities of those exposed allows for a less restrictive overall environment.
America’s current policy restricts healthy people’s ability to access outdoor space, generates paranoia about passing encounters with runners or cyclists, and discourages people from seeking routine health care for ailments that aren't Covid-19. But actual sick people are sent home to potentially infect their loved ones. It’s not so much that the US is doing more than Asia to prioritize liberty over public health as that it’s ignoring evidence on which restrictions of liberty are effective.
Even if mandatory centralized quarantine does prove to be a bridge too far for the American political system, the striking thing about the status quo is there’s no good way for people to voluntarily isolate themselves from other members of the household.
If states and cities began to invest in quarantine facilities — like by buying out hotels, which are currently hurting for lack of customers — opening them up on a voluntary basis could do an enormous amount of good. But especially for jurisdictions with smaller caseloads that are eager to “open up,” it’s really worth thinking harder about what the plan is when new cases pop up.
Strict centralized isolation measures would likely ultimately be cheaper and less invasive than ping-ponging in and out of lockdown. It’s what the most successful coronavirus-fighting countries are doing. And since the US has already turned almost every aspect of daily life upside down, it should think about trying a similar strategy, too.


vox--2020-04-28--Pet fosters and adoptions are way up. My new cat, Hubert, was one of them.

I spent the majority of my first two weeks of quarantine , just like many of you , on Petfinder.com .
This is not a presumption ; I know because Petfinder told me that its traffic increased 43 percent and adoption inquiries jumped 116 percent in the second half of March .
Remember March ?
It was right around the time many people were starting to realize they were about to be spending a lot more time at home , where it suddenly felt very empty .
I had always tortured my parents , who did not want a four-legged @ @ @ @ @ @ @ begging for a cat , or a puppy , or anything more sentient than a plant .
Ultimately , with no actual bargaining chips , I settled for a freshwater tank of 10 neon tetras , all named after famous ’ 90s figure skaters .
When we moved , my dad flushed them down the toilet , to the great ice rink in the sky .
So when my boyfriend and I finally moved into our own Brooklyn apartment in early March , cat adoption was at the top of my to-do list @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and “ have a very frank and serious discussion about what counts as ‘ clean.
’ ” We were not planning on spending the majority of the month quarantined there , but one of the benefits of working from home is that no one can see that you have 25 open tabs in your browser filled with pictures of Laurie , an “ affectionate , attention-seeking seven month old kitten looking for her FUREVER home , ” or a tortie called “ Gorgeous May ” described as “ slightly shy at first but @ @ @ @ @ @ @ it !
!
!
” ( All online cat descriptions sound like this , it ’ s incredibly dorky and very charming . )
You know what happened next .
Things started to get bad in New York , and then bad everywhere else in the country , and then really bad in New York .
Suddenly I happened to be adopting a cat at a time when thousands of other people were looking for something to keep them company during a certain “ uncertain time.
” It had become a rare gem @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Newest Shortage in New York : The City Is Running Out of Dogs to Foster , ” read one of such Bloomberg headlines .
Animal shelters across the country were suddenly overwhelmed by applications to foster and adopt cats and dogs , even in places with traditionally low human-to-pet ratios , like New York City .
Now that animal shelters had limited hours , many even agreed to foster after just one virtual FaceTime or Zoom call ( sometimes also called a “ meow meet ” ; again , animal people are corny @ @ @ @ @ @ @ given time we have over 600 animals in our care and right now we have less than 100 , if that ’ s any indication of how it ’ s going , ” says Katy Hansen , communications director for the Animal Care Centers of NYC .
“ We put a call out for fosters on March 13 , when everything kind of was really starting to hit full steam , ” she says .
“ All we knew was that we needed to get as many animals out as possible because we @ @ @ @ @ @ @ affect our staff .
We thought we would get 50 applications .
We got 5,000.
” Not everyone is suitable to take in a foster animal , of course .
Hansen jokes that “ 4,999 of those applications were for teacup poodles that are hypoallergenic and get along with kids and cats , ” but the organization was still able to place 280 animals in foster homes that week .
This isn ’ t how animal shelters expected the pandemic to go .
“ We thought people were going to bring their animals @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , ” Hansen says .
Instead , it opened up an entirely new demographic of potential pet fosters : “ The people that were filling up the applications were primarily millennials who lived with roommates .
That ’ s not a demographic that we usually see coming forward to foster , because they ’ re working and they live with three people.
” The ASPCA , meanwhile , has seen a 500 percent increase in applications through its New York and Los Angeles foster programs since March 15 , according to president and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , a good day for the KC Pet Project animal shelter is getting 10 pets placed in foster homes , but it received 250 applications in the span of just a few days .
So many people applied to foster animals through the Wisconsin Humane Society that its website briefly crashed .
I submitted one such application to countless local animal shelters , but knew my chances of hearing back would be far lower than normal considering the circumstances .
It was a few weeks into the search , though , that I @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Aubrey on Adopt-a-Pet.com ( where daily traffic has increased 60 percent and inquiries have doubled , according to the site ) .
After going through the now-familiar slog of confirming that , yes , my landlord was okay with pets , and no , I had never surrendered an animal , and here are two people that can attest to my ability to keep a small thing alive , the tiny mom-and-pop organization that had rescued Aubrey sent me the text I ’ d been waiting for : “ Hello rebecca congratulations your @ @ @ @ @ @ @ us know what evenings after 7 works for you to meet the cats thx.
” The rescue shelter had an extremely wonderful setup for anyone hoping to choose the best possible cat for them : I ’ d pick out eight of the available cats on its website and would get the chance to meet them all inside an adoption van .
The following evening , I put on a face mask and met Luis ( not his real name ) in his driveway .
I was at the home of a stranger @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 20 minutes away from my apartment or anyone I knew , but it was the most exciting place I ’ d ever been .
My cat was in here !
Lined up in little crates , all eight of them were perfect , but two were more perfect than the others : a white female with gray spots I silently named Edelgard , after a character in a video game I had become recently obsessed with , and Hubert , the tuxedo male next to her , named for Edelgard ’ s slightly @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Luis told me that Edelgard had been recently returned because she had been kind of a nightmare , and so I took the hint . )
When I picked up Hubert , though , it was all over .
Not only did he have the softest fur and the prettiest facial markings I ’ d ever seen on a cat , but he loved me .
The other cats were cute , but Hubert was mine .
A few days later , he was .
Luis arrived at our apartment with food , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ held Hubert .
We let him out ; we took pictures .
I held him some more , my very own cat , the furry thing I had wanted for an entire life of settling for inch-long tropical fish and other people ’ s pets .
Then Luis left .
I have been around stressed-out cats before ; I know what they do .
They hide — for a few days , sometimes .
“ Dogs love you , cats tolerate you ” is a thing that dog people like to say as @ @ @ @ @ @ @ say as a brag .
For the first few days , Hubie barely tolerated us .
He finally ate and used the litter box after the third day , while we were asleep .
From morning through the afternoons , he ’ d burrow on a small ledge behind the couch , where I ’ d sit and work to try to let him get used to the smells and sounds of a new apartment .
It was normal in the beginning ; it was normal for the first week , I kept @ @ @ @ @ @ @ broken , ” joked my boyfriend , and then we got into a fight .
With each day I ’ d started to spend more and more time reading advice columns on websites with titles like “ The Way of Cats ” and “ Cuteness.com , ” all of which told me to be patient , and luckily , cat people tend to be the sort who love giving advice .
The lady at my local pet store recommended a particular brand of treats ; one of the dorky websites suggested playing classical @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The Vox Media cats-specific Slack channel said to make sure he sees me filling his bowl every day so that he associates me with food .
Perhaps the most useful piece of perspective came from one of my coworkers , who said , “ Cats are fickle little bitches and we love them for it.
” For better or for worse , pets almost never turn out the way you expect them to , particularly in a time when adopting one is supposed to fill the giant hole in your heart where your @ @ @ @ @ @ @ March , my best friend , a lifelong cat whisperer , agreed to take in four day-old kittens .
She woke up each night to bottle-feed them every two hours , and two still died — a sad but inevitable outcome of many litters .
My friend ’ s little sister just adopted the world ’ s most photogenic Australian shepherd puppy and now it won ’ t stop biting everything .
Another friend fostered a puppy at the beginning of quarantine and was so sad when he went to his forever home @ @ @ @ @ @ @ suspect I ’ m not the only one dealing with a terrified new cat : When I asked if my pet store had any calming pheromone spray , the clerk laughed and said they were “ very out.
” The important thing , though , is that we continue to love our quarantine pets after things start to feel somewhat normal again .
Katy Hansen of the NYACC says that they ’ re prepared for an increase in surrenders over the next few months , but not for the usual reasons .
“ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s going to be financial hardships , ” she says .
Animal shelters , too , are facing the same concerns as any small business right now .
The ASPCA says it is still unclear on the pandemic ’ s impact on animal welfare , but that “ in addition to the unprecedented challenges this crisis creates for people , it also puts animals at risk by straining essential owner and shelter resources.
” During our phone call , I told Hansen about Hubert , but she wasn ’ t worried .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ spirit cats , ” she says .
“ They just need some time , and then before you know it they ’ ll be crawling all over you !
” Hubie isn ’ t there yet , and that ’ s okay !
We ’ ll get to know each other together — the treats he likes , the sounds he hates , the corners in the apartment he prefers to vomit .
All that matters is that he ’ s home , just like the rest of us will be for the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ scary time for everyone right now .
Even cats .
Every day at Vox , we aim to answer your most important questions and provide you , and our audience around the world , with information that has the power to save lives .
Our mission has never been more vital than it is in this moment : to empower you through understanding .
Vox ’ s work is reaching more people than ever , but our distinctive brand of explanatory journalism takes resources — particularly during a pandemic and an economic downturn @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a donation , but it will enable our staff to continue to offer free articles , videos , and podcasts at the quality and volume that this moment requires .
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I spent the majority of my first two weeks of quarantine, just like many of you, on Petfinder.com. This is not a presumption; I know because Petfinder told me that its traffic increased 43 percent and adoption inquiries jumped 116 percent in the second half of March. Remember March? It was right around the time many people were starting to realize they were about to be spending a lot more time at home, where it suddenly felt very empty.
I had always tortured my parents, who did not want a four-legged creature anywhere near our house, by begging for a cat, or a puppy, or anything more sentient than a plant. Ultimately, with no actual bargaining chips, I settled for a freshwater tank of 10 neon tetras, all named after famous ’90s figure skaters. When we moved, my dad flushed them down the toilet, to the great ice rink in the sky.
So when my boyfriend and I finally moved into our own Brooklyn apartment in early March, cat adoption was at the top of my to-do list, after “buy a couch” and “have a very frank and serious discussion about what counts as ‘clean.’”
We were not planning on spending the majority of the month quarantined there, but one of the benefits of working from home is that no one can see that you have 25 open tabs in your browser filled with pictures of Laurie, an “affectionate, attention-seeking seven month old kitten looking for her FUREVER home,” or a tortie called “Gorgeous May” described as “slightly shy at first but turns into a LOVEBUG before you know it!!!” (All online cat descriptions sound like this, it’s incredibly dorky and very charming.)
You know what happened next. Things started to get bad in New York, and then bad everywhere else in the country, and then really bad in New York. Suddenly I happened to be adopting a cat at a time when thousands of other people were looking for something to keep them company during a certain “uncertain time.”
It had become a rare gem of good news in 2020 — “Newest Shortage in New York: The City Is Running Out of Dogs to Foster,” read one of such Bloomberg headlines. Animal shelters across the country were suddenly overwhelmed by applications to foster and adopt cats and dogs, even in places with traditionally low human-to-pet ratios, like New York City. Now that animal shelters had limited hours, many even agreed to foster after just one virtual FaceTime or Zoom call (sometimes also called a “meow meet”; again, animal people are corny as hell).
“At any given time we have over 600 animals in our care and right now we have less than 100, if that’s any indication of how it’s going,” says Katy Hansen, communications director for the Animal Care Centers of NYC.
“We put a call out for fosters on March 13, when everything kind of was really starting to hit full steam,” she says. “All we knew was that we needed to get as many animals out as possible because we didn’t know how this would affect our staff. We thought we would get 50 applications. We got 5,000.”
Not everyone is suitable to take in a foster animal, of course. Hansen jokes that “4,999 of those applications were for teacup poodles that are hypoallergenic and get along with kids and cats,” but the organization was still able to place 280 animals in foster homes that week.
This isn’t how animal shelters expected the pandemic to go. “We thought people were going to bring their animals in and then run for the hills,” Hansen says. Instead, it opened up an entirely new demographic of potential pet fosters: “The people that were filling up the applications were primarily millennials who lived with roommates. That’s not a demographic that we usually see coming forward to foster, because they’re working and they live with three people.”
The ASPCA, meanwhile, has seen a 500 percent increase in applications through its New York and Los Angeles foster programs since March 15, according to president and CEO Matt Bershadker. In Kansas City, a good day for the KC Pet Project animal shelter is getting 10 pets placed in foster homes, but it received 250 applications in the span of just a few days. So many people applied to foster animals through the Wisconsin Humane Society that its website briefly crashed.
I submitted one such application to countless local animal shelters, but knew my chances of hearing back would be far lower than normal considering the circumstances. It was a few weeks into the search, though, that I came across an adorable tortoiseshell kitten named Aubrey on Adopt-a-Pet.com (where daily traffic has increased 60 percent and inquiries have doubled, according to the site).
After going through the now-familiar slog of confirming that, yes, my landlord was okay with pets, and no, I had never surrendered an animal, and here are two people that can attest to my ability to keep a small thing alive, the tiny mom-and-pop organization that had rescued Aubrey sent me the text I’d been waiting for: “Hello rebecca congratulations your adoption application has been approved pls let us know what evenings after 7 works for you to meet the cats thx.”
The rescue shelter had an extremely wonderful setup for anyone hoping to choose the best possible cat for them: I’d pick out eight of the available cats on its website and would get the chance to meet them all inside an adoption van. The following evening, I put on a face mask and met Luis (not his real name) in his driveway. I was at the home of a stranger, alone, at 9 pm, 20 minutes away from my apartment or anyone I knew, but it was the most exciting place I’d ever been. My cat was in here!
Lined up in little crates, all eight of them were perfect, but two were more perfect than the others: a white female with gray spots I silently named Edelgard, after a character in a video game I had become recently obsessed with, and Hubert, the tuxedo male next to her, named for Edelgard’s slightly evil and very goth second-in-command. (Luis told me that Edelgard had been recently returned because she had been kind of a nightmare, and so I took the hint.)
When I picked up Hubert, though, it was all over. Not only did he have the softest fur and the prettiest facial markings I’d ever seen on a cat, but he loved me. The other cats were cute, but Hubert was mine.
A few days later, he was. Luis arrived at our apartment with food, litter, and a giant cage that held Hubert. We let him out; we took pictures. I held him some more, my very own cat, the furry thing I had wanted for an entire life of settling for inch-long tropical fish and other people’s pets.
Then Luis left. I have been around stressed-out cats before; I know what they do. They hide — for a few days, sometimes. “Dogs love you, cats tolerate you” is a thing that dog people like to say as an insult and cat people like to say as a brag.
For the first few days, Hubie barely tolerated us. He finally ate and used the litter box after the third day, while we were asleep. From morning through the afternoons, he’d burrow on a small ledge behind the couch, where I’d sit and work to try to let him get used to the smells and sounds of a new apartment. It was normal in the beginning; it was normal for the first week, I kept telling myself.
“He’s broken,” joked my boyfriend, and then we got into a fight.
With each day I’d started to spend more and more time reading advice columns on websites with titles like “The Way of Cats” and “Cuteness.com,” all of which told me to be patient, and luckily, cat people tend to be the sort who love giving advice. The lady at my local pet store recommended a particular brand of treats; one of the dorky websites suggested playing classical music to drown out scary noises.
The Vox Media cats-specific Slack channel said to make sure he sees me filling his bowl every day so that he associates me with food. Perhaps the most useful piece of perspective came from one of my coworkers, who said, “Cats are fickle little bitches and we love them for it.”
For better or for worse, pets almost never turn out the way you expect them to, particularly in a time when adopting one is supposed to fill the giant hole in your heart where your social life used to be. In March, my best friend, a lifelong cat whisperer, agreed to take in four day-old kittens. She woke up each night to bottle-feed them every two hours, and two still died — a sad but inevitable outcome of many litters.
My friend’s little sister just adopted the world’s most photogenic Australian shepherd puppy and now it won’t stop biting everything. Another friend fostered a puppy at the beginning of quarantine and was so sad when he went to his forever home that they adopted his sister. I suspect I’m not the only one dealing with a terrified new cat: When I asked if my pet store had any calming pheromone spray, the clerk laughed and said they were “very out.”
The important thing, though, is that we continue to love our quarantine pets after things start to feel somewhat normal again. Katy Hansen of the NYACC says that they’re prepared for an increase in surrenders over the next few months, but not for the usual reasons. “As people lose their jobs, there’s going to be financial hardships,” she says. Animal shelters, too, are facing the same concerns as any small business right now. The ASPCA says it is still unclear on the pandemic’s impact on animal welfare, but that “in addition to the unprecedented challenges this crisis creates for people, it also puts animals at risk by straining essential owner and shelter resources.”
During our phone call, I told Hansen about Hubert, but she wasn’t worried. “They’re what we call spirit cats,” she says. “They just need some time, and then before you know it they’ll be crawling all over you!”
Hubie isn’t there yet, and that’s okay! We’ll get to know each other together — the treats he likes, the sounds he hates, the corners in the apartment he prefers to vomit. All that matters is that he’s home, just like the rest of us will be for the foreseeable future. It’s a scary time for everyone right now. Even cats.