vox--2020-10-15--The jarring contrast between Trump and Biden, in 3 moments from their competing town halls

The contrast between the dueling NBC/ABC town halls featuring President Donald Trump and Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden was nicely captured by the difference between what each of them was saying at 8:13 pm Eastern time .
On NBC , Trump was getting angry as host Savannah Guthrie grilled him on his reluctance to disavow white supremacist groups and dangerous conspiracy theories .
He finally did so after repeated questioning .
But asked specifically to categorically condemn QAnon — “ this theory that Democrats are a satanic pedophile ring and that you are the savior of that , ” as @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ I know nothing about QAnon , ” Trump began , adding later : “ What I do hear about is they are very strongly against pedophilia , and I agree with that , I do agree with that.
” So not only did Trump refuse to denounce a dangerous conspiracy theory whose proponents are part of his base , but he embraced some of its ideology .
Here ’ s the clip : At the very moment Trump was making that display , Biden on ABC was talking about the importance of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ endorsed by experts to slow the spread of coronavirus .
“ When a president doesn ’ t wear a mask , or makes fun of folks like me when I was wearing a mask for a long time , then people say it mustn ’ t be that important , ” Biden said .
“ If you listen to the head of the CDC , he stood up and he said , ‘ You know , while we ’ re waiting for a vaccine ’ — he held up a mask — ‘ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ll save more lives between now and the end of the year than if we had a vaccine.
’ ” Viewers who flipped from NBC to ABC in time for Biden ’ s comments about masks might have experienced whiplash .
That ’ s because minutes earlier , Trump defended his ongoing reluctance to wear masks in public — a reluctance that ’ s persisted even after he was hospitalized with the coronavirus — with a lie about how “ just the other day they came out with a statement that 85 percent @ @ @ @ @ @ @ [ coronavirus ] .
” But as Guthrie pointed out , Trump ’ s statement about masks wasn ’ t close to accurate .
He was referring to a Centers for Disease Control and Prevention study that details how dining out increases the risk of a coronavirus infection even among people who report regularly wearing a mask .
It does not indicate that 85 percent of people who wear masks get Covid-19 .
None of this is to say that Biden ’ s performance was perfect .
Later on , he admitted that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ resulted in disproportionate sentences for people of color was a mistake , but passed blame , saying , “ the mistake came in terms of what the states did locally.
” But if Biden ’ s reluctance to fully own up to the role he played in mass incarceration wasn ’ t a shining moment for him , it still represented quite the contrast with Trump , who at that same moment on NBC was blatantly lying about his record on health care .
“ Always , under all circumstances ... we will @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Trump claimed , even though legislation he championed in 2017 would have stripped coverage from more than 20 million people , many of them with preexisting conditions .
In a way , the competing town halls threw the stakes of the 2020 election into starker relief than another Trump-Biden debate would have .
Despite his faults , Biden came across as thoughtful and able to engage with policy substantively .
Trump , by contrast , wouldn ’ t even acknowledge that his propensity for retweeting obviously false conspiracy theories is irresponsible , let @ @ @ @ @ @ @ shape the country finds itself in after four years of his leadership and amid a pandemic he ’ s seemingly given up trying to contain .
Like a train wreck , it can be hard to look away from Trump .
But as my colleague Matthew Yglesias writes , after four years of regular derailments , there ’ s something delightful about Biden ’ s boringness .
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The contrast between the dueling NBC/ABC town halls featuring President Donald Trump and Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden was nicely captured by the difference between what each of them was saying at 8:13 pm Eastern time.
On NBC, Trump was getting angry as host Savannah Guthrie grilled him on his reluctance to disavow white supremacist groups and dangerous conspiracy theories. He finally did so after repeated questioning. But asked specifically to categorically condemn QAnon — “this theory that Democrats are a satanic pedophile ring and that you are the savior of that,” as Guthrie described it — Trump refused.
“I know nothing about QAnon,” Trump began, adding later: “What I do hear about is they are very strongly against pedophilia, and I agree with that, I do agree with that.”
So not only did Trump refuse to denounce a dangerous conspiracy theory whose proponents are part of his base, but he embraced some of its ideology. Here’s the clip:
The President won’t disavow Q pic.twitter.com/bHZFsIrzP2 — Acyn Torabi (@Acyn) October 16, 2020
At the very moment Trump was making that display, Biden on ABC was talking about the importance of wearing masks and following public health measures endorsed by experts to slow the spread of the coronavirus.
“When a president doesn’t wear a mask, or makes fun of folks like me when I was wearing a mask for a long time, then people say it mustn’t be that important,” Biden said. “If you listen to the head of the CDC, he stood up and he said, ‘You know, while we’re waiting for a vaccine’ — he held up a mask — ‘you wear this mask, you’ll save more lives between now and the end of the year than if we had a vaccine.’”
At the same moment that Trump was refusing to disavow QAnon, Biden on ABC was saying that "when a president doesn't wear a mask, or makes fun of folks like me when I was wearing a mask for a long time, then people say it mustn't be that important." A jarring contrast. pic.twitter.com/rqppKQDUrs — Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) October 16, 2020
Viewers who flipped from NBC to ABC in time for Biden’s comments about masks might have experienced whiplash. That’s because minutes earlier, Trump defended his ongoing reluctance to wear masks in public — a reluctance that’s persisted even after he was hospitalized with the coronavirus — with a lie about how “just the other day they came out with a statement that 85 percent of the people that wear masks catch [coronavirus].”
But as Guthrie pointed out, Trump’s statement about masks wasn’t close to accurate. He was referring to a Centers for Disease Control and Prevention study that details how dining out increases the risk of a coronavirus infection even among people who report regularly wearing a mask. It does not indicate that 85 percent of people who wear masks get Covid-19.
None of this is to say that Biden’s performance was perfect. Later on, he admitted that his support for 1994 crime legislation that resulted in disproportionate sentences for people of color was a mistake, but passed blame, saying, “the mistake came in terms of what the states did locally.”
But if Biden’s reluctance to fully own up to the role he played in mass incarceration wasn’t a shining moment for him, it still represented quite the contrast with Trump, who at that same moment on NBC was blatantly lying about his record on health care.
“Always, under all circumstances ... we will protect people with preexisting conditions,” Trump claimed, even though legislation he championed in 2017 would have stripped coverage from more than 20 million people, many of them with preexisting conditions.
Trump on healthcare: "The problem with Obamacare is it’s not good... the problem with Obamacare, it basically is never going to be great and I want to give great healthcare." pic.twitter.com/dRVCOvzV66 — Justin Baragona (@justinbaragona) October 16, 2020
In a way, the competing town halls threw the stakes of the 2020 election into starker relief than another Trump-Biden debate would have. Despite his faults, Biden came across as thoughtful and able to engage with policy substantively. Trump, by contrast, wouldn’t even acknowledge that his propensity for retweeting obviously false conspiracy theories is irresponsible, let alone accept any responsibility for the tough shape the country finds itself in after four years of his leadership and amid a pandemic he’s seemingly given up trying to contain.
The President provides a strange defense of his retweeting of a Seal Team Six conspiracy theory pic.twitter.com/3TrCRwF5Au — Acyn Torabi (@Acyn) October 16, 2020
Like a train wreck, it can be hard to look away from Trump. But as my colleague Matthew Yglesias writes, after four years of regular derailments, there’s something delightful about Biden’s boringness.


vox--2020-10-15--5 winners and 3 losers from the dueling Trump-Biden town halls

Dueling town halls between President Donald Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden created a stark contrast between the two candidates — but probably not the one the president wanted .
This is all because Trump refused to do Thursday ’ s planned virtual town hall debate due to his Covid-19 diagnosis , so Biden decided to schedule a solo town hall on ABC at 8 pm Eastern .
Trump , looking to counterprogram Biden , convinced NBC to schedule his own town hall at the same time — hoping to win the ratings war and come out looking stronger @ @ @ @ @ @ @ strategy ; he faced hard questions from voters and NBC host Savannah Guthrie on issues ranging from wearing masks to electoral fraud to Trump ’ s refusal to disavow extremist groups , eliciting a series of responses that ranged from blatantly false ( claiming masks don ’ t really work ) to the dangerously absurd ( suggesting some parts of the QAnon conspiracy theory might actually be true ) .
Meanwhile , Biden ’ s town hall was calm , polite , and packed with policy substance .
Biden laid out plans for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and reorient the economy toward being more equitable for lower-income Americans — two things Trump has not accomplished .
For voters yearning for a return to some sense of normalcy , Biden hit all the right notes .
The night-and-day contrast served to highlight the core differences between the two options in front of the American people : continuing the reality TV maelstrom of the Trump presidency or a shift to a Biden presidency , where politics returns to being boring , and maybe even calm .
What follows is our attempt to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and their striking contrasts — and who came out looking just a little bit worse .
Biden ’ s town hall made a big case for the return of boring normalcy in the White House .
Even though it may not have made for the most riveting television , it could well work in his favor .
Biden ’ s town hall harked back to the days when Americans didn ’ t have to worry about what the president was doing — or tweeting — every day .
As Trump was being asked @ @ @ @ @ @ @ mask at the NBC town hall , Biden was talking about how he has started wearing two masks , and talked about his plan for implementing mask-wearing around the country .
“ We ’ re in a situation where we have 210,000-plus people dead and what ’ s he doing ?
Nothing .
He ’ s still not wearing masks , ” Biden said of Trump .
“ It is the presidential responsibility to lead .
And he didn ’ t do that.
” While Trump ’ s recent Covid-19 diagnosis signaled the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ coronavirus in his own White House , Biden finally got to explain — uninterrupted — how he would coordinate a federal response to stop the virus ’ s spread around the United States .
He even brought notes .
Talking to the American people directly about Covid-19 and the havoc it has wreaked on millions of people ’ s lives was Biden ’ s strong suit in the first debate .
The town hall format seemed to benefit him even more .
Biden seemed sharp and prepared — talking about commonsense virus control @ @ @ @ @ @ @ schools had good air ventilation .
“ We need more teachers in our schools to be able to open , smaller pods , ” Biden said .
“ We need ventilation systems changed .
There ’ s a lot of things we know now.
” Just recognizing that there ’ s a way to make schools safer for students to return could be a welcome answer to millions of overworked , stressed parents who are trying to juggle working from home and overseeing their kids ’ remote schooling at the same time .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ voters who dislike Trump and favor Biden : They ’ re tired of the daily chaos of the past four years — whether it ’ s the revolving door for White House chiefs of staff or Trump catching Covid-19 himself .
If a comparatively boring town hall means America can go back to the days where the country doesn ’ t have to worry about what the president is tweeting , that ’ s a win for Biden .
Trump wouldn ’ t say whether he was tested for the coronavirus before the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ t defend his refusal to require mask use at his rallies .
He tried to downplay broadcasting a wild conspiracy theory that Biden tried to have members of Seal Team 6 killed by saying “ that was a retweet , I do a lot of retweets.
” He suggested parts of the QAnon conspiracy theory could be true , saying “ I don ’ t know , ” when Guthrie asked him whether he believes the Democratic Party is run by a cult of satanic pedophiles .
That may sound like a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
But it was all in the first 15 minutes of the event .
You could call this “ Trump being Trump , ” and you ’ d probably be right .
But the difference is that , this time around , Trump was facing questions from ordinary Americans whom he couldn ’ t talk over and a host who was unafraid to follow up repeatedly and fact-check the president in real time .
This format made it much harder for Trump to ignore questions through his patented combination of lying , bluster @ @ @ @ @ @ @ engage on his own record , the area where ’ s at his weakest .
Take this health care exchange , for example .
After a question about making health care affordable and accessible , Guthrie followed up by asking Trump about his administration ’ s plans to replace Obamacare — and the glaring contradiction between its claim to protect coverage for people with preexisting conditions and its argument , in court , that all of Obamacare ( including said coverage ) is unconstitutional .
Here ’ s the end of the exchange @ @ @ @ @ @ @ he couldn ’ t come up with a better health care plan when his party controlled all three branches of government .
His answer to the question about preexisting conditions is gibberish , largely because there is no good answer .
If the town hall format brought out Biden ’ s strengths — his ability to empathize with voters , his long experience with and knowledge about policymaking — it brought out Trump ’ s weaknesses in the same areas .
His event served to remind us that his presidency has been four @ @ @ @ @ @ @ too little in the way of substance done to help ordinary Americans in an especially difficult time in our history .
Trump is trailing badly in the polls , and he desperately needed a strong performance to try to turn things around .
This seems , if anything , more likely to make that hole a bit deeper .
There were a few moments in Thursday ’ s ABC town hall where Biden sounded a bit like the progressive Sen. Elizabeth Warren ( D-MA ) , a onetime rival for the Democratic nomination @ @ @ @ @ @ @ looking for wonky statistics on issues from the economy to climate change , the former vice president had them .
Biden came prepared for his town hall with notes , at one point casually throwing around statistics about the British Thermal Unit as it pertains to wind and solar power , and talking about pelletizing chicken and cow manure to take out the methane that contributes to climate change from big agriculture .
“ Electric vehicles will save billions of gallons of oil ... [ and create ] 1 million automobile jobs , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ re lagging .
We ’ re not investing .
We ’ re not doing the research.
” Discussing a longstanding racial wealth gap , Biden recognized that even as the economy has slowly recovered over the summer , the economic picture looks far bleaker for Black and brown workers .
The most recent overall unemployment rate is 7.9 percent .
But when you break it down along racial lines , the story on what ’ s happening is quite different : White unemployment is 7 percent , while Black unemployment is 12.1 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
“ [ Trump ] talks about a V-shaped recovery ; it ’ s a K-shaped recovery , ” Biden said , pointing to the theory that those with means in America are bouncing back quite easily , while everyone else is suffering .
“ If you are on the top , you ’ re going to do very well .
If you ’ re on the bottom , in the middle or the bottom , your income is coming down.
” At one point , Biden had a mea culpa about his @ @ @ @ @ @ @ more controversial parts of his Senate history that contributed to mass incarceration in the 1990s and following decades .
After host George Stephanopoulos asked whether it was a mistake to support it , Biden simply responded , “ Yes , it was.
” But Biden also tried to deflect blame away from the law ’ s original drafting , saying the worst effects of the crime bill came from state and local police departments implementing it themselves .
“ Here ’ s where the mistake came : The mistake came in terms of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Biden said .
“ What happened ?
They eliminated the funding for community policing.
” While Biden has adamantly come out against defunding the police and maintained that “ most cops don ’ t like bad cops , ” he told Stephanopoulos he wants more reforms and additional resources going to community policing and strengthening mental health resources .
Even if viewers may have disagreed with some of Biden ’ s stances , the nominee came prepared and showed off his policy chops .
This election is a choice between two candidates .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ vote for , voters typically need to be informed about both candidates ’ views and positions .
But tonight , voters had to choose between the Biden town hall or the Trump town hall .
It was a real-time example of FOMO ( fear of missing out ) in action .
If you were on social media during the town halls , you might have seen people talking about the town hall that you weren ’ t watching .
But you couldn ’ t contribute to the conversation because you couldn ’ t @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , the stakes are very high .
This isn ’ t missing a movie ’ s opening day or brunch with your friends .
It ’ s missing the kind of event that voters genuinely rely on to inform their decisions about who will run the most powerful country in the world .
That ’ s particularly true in this case , because tonight ’ s main political event was supposed to be a debate between Biden and Trump .
It didn ’ t have to be this way .
The debate could @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s recent coronavirus infection , but the Trump campaign rejected the idea of a virtual debate .
The town halls could have been scheduled at different days or times , but Trump reportedly wanted to beat Biden in the ratings in a direct , same-hour matchup .
So we got a mess of FOMO .
Americans — and especially any remaining undecided voters — were left less informed as a result .
Savannah Guthrie is a lead anchor on the Today show for a reason — and on Thursday night , it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ flak for programming a Trump town hall at the same time as the Biden event on ABC , especially given that it was the president who dropped out of the originally scheduled debate in the first place .
Guthrie ’ s quick line of questioning , pushback , and real-time fact-checking of the president probably made the White House wish they had just done the debate .
Guthrie , who has co-anchored Today since 2012 , opened the night reminding the audience why the event was happening in the first place — the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in a virtual debate proposed for safety reasons , causing this dueling town hall mess in the first place .
And then she got to the questions .
Were you tested the day of the last presidential debate in Cleveland , which took place just two days before Trump ’ s positive coronavirus test ?
How often are you tested ?
Why did you hold the event honoring Supreme Court nominee Amy Coney Barrett at the White House without precautions ?
Shouldn ’ t you have known better ?
Are you blaming grieving @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Why did it take you two days to denounce white supremacy ?
Then Guthrie asked the president about QAnon .
In asking her question , she reminded him what it was — the dangerous conspiracy theory spreading across the internet that claims Democrats are behind a pedophilia ring that Trump is the savior of .
“ Can you just once and for all state that this is completely not true and disavow QAnon in its entirety ?
” she asked .
“ I know nothing about QAnon , ” he said .
“ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ responded .
Guthrie also asked the president about something he retweeted suggesting that Biden had a Navy SEAL team killed to cover up the fake death of Osama bin Laden .
“ That was a retweet , that was an opinion of somebody , ” Trump said .
“ You ’ re the president ; you ’ re not someone ’ s crazy uncle where you just retweet whatever , ” Guthrie said .
Guthrie stepped into a tough spot on Thursday , and in that spot , she seized on the chance @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the American people — and press on their behalf to get answers .
Guthrie gave Trump as many opportunities as she could to denounce the online conspiracy theory about a Satanic pedophilia ring run by global elites .
He wouldn ’ t do it .
“ I don ’ t know anything about QAnon , ” Trump said at first .
Guthrie pointed out she ’ d just explained the theory in brief : Prominent Democrats are satanic pedophiles and Trump is going to save the world from them .
So would Trump @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ Let me just tell you what I do hear about it is they are very strongly against pedophilia and I agree with that , ” Trump said .
“ I do agree with that.
” “ I don ’ t know that , ” the president said .
“ And neither do you know that.
” The rest of the short version of QAnon is that a top-level official — “ Q ” — is leaking a top-level state secret on the internet .
Its believers thrive on tiny hints they claim @ @ @ @ @ @ @ media posts by Trump and his confidants .
Now they had the president in front of a huge TV audience , saying that what he did know about QAnon , he agreed with .
The mandate has taken a beating lately , both from Trump and from health policy wonks .
At his town hall , the president defaulted to his favorite answer when a journalist or anybody points out he has not released a comprehensive health care plan in case the Supreme Court overturns Obamacare early next year and millions of people @ @ @ @ @ @ @ coverage .
When asked by a voter who buys her own health insurance about what his health care plan would be , Trump instead talked about his most significant legislative achievement on health care .
As part of their tax bill , Republicans eliminated Obamacare ’ s financial penalty for failing to carry health insurance that was established by the 2010 health care law .
( They had also , of course , failed to repeal and replace Obamacare earlier the same year . )
“ We got rid of the individual mandate @ @ @ @ @ @ @ part of Obamacare , and now you could actually say it ’ s not Obamacare because that ’ s how big it was , ” the president said .
Trump is right about one thing : The mandate was very unpopular .
It makes sense for him politically to highlight how he got rid of it .
But he ’ s wrong about something else : Ending the mandate may not actually be that big of a deal in terms of how Obamacare functions .
A consensus has been forming among health policy @ @ @ @ @ @ @ as crucial to the law ’ s markets as its authors thought it would be , because the actual size of the financial penalty was relatively small .
More than 80 percent of the people who buy private insurance on the marketplaces get federal tax credits , which makes their premiums more affordable .
Obamacare ’ s enrollment has declined only slightly since the mandate was repealed , from 12.2 million in 2017 to 11.4 million in 2020 .
Yet Republican state officials , supported by the Justice Department , are suing to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the mandate is now gone .
( To get into the weeds , read Vox ’ s Ian Millhiser . )
Those millions of Americans who buy insurance on the marketplaces , and more than 12 million people covered by Medicaid expansion , could lose insurance unless there is a plan to cover them in that scenario .
“ I want to give great health care , ” the president said Thursday night , sounding much like he did four years ago .
The rest is still TBD .
If there ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the past five years about Donald Trump , it ’ s that he ’ s “ tough.
” But responses to Trump ’ s performance in Thursday night ’ s town hall conversation with Guthrie from conservative media figures seemed to imply otherwise .
They focused not on Trump ’ s answers , but on how “ bullied ” he was by Guthrie for asking him moderately difficult questions .
Trump is the president of the United States , and presumably would have the capacity to answer tough questions about his handling of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to mention he had mocked Guthrie earlier Thursday during a rally ) .
And yet Fox News host and occasional Trump rally guest Sean Hannity introduced his show Thursday night saying , “ NBC fake news did their best to ambush President Trump at tonight ’ s town hall , ” and describing Guthrie as Biden ’ s surrogate .
The Trump campaign mirrored that language in a statement , again calling Guthrie a “ Biden surrogate ” and adding , “ President Trump masterfully handled Guthrie ’ s attacks and interacted warmly @ @ @ @ @ @ @ room.
” Trump ’ s allies , in the face of his performance , focused on working the refs — the media .
The rule for interviewing Donald Trump is very clear : He can be mean to you , but you have to be nice to him , obsequiously so , no matter what he says or does .
But this was Trump ’ s choice .
As he said about the decision to do the town hall : “ They asked me if I ’ d do it , and I @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ll get a free hour of television.
” He did indeed .
And now some of his biggest allies are very upset about it .
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That is our @ @ @ @ @ @ @ brand of explanatory journalism takes resources .
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Dueling town halls between President Donald Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden created a stark contrast between the two candidates — but probably not the one the president wanted.
This is all because Trump refused to do Thursday’s planned virtual town hall debate due to his Covid-19 diagnosis, so Biden decided to schedule a solo town hall on ABC at 8 pm ET. Trump, looking to counterprogram Biden, convinced NBC to schedule his own town hall at the same time — hoping to win the ratings war and come out looking stronger than Biden.
Trump may regret that strategy; he faced hard questions from voters and NBC host Savannah Guthrie on issues ranging from wearing masks to electoral fraud to Trump’s refusal to disavow extremist groups, eliciting a series of responses that ranged from blatantly false (claiming masks don’t really work) to the dangerously absurd (suggesting some parts of the QAnon conspiracy theory might actually be true).
Meanwhile, Biden’s town hall was calm, polite, and packed with policy substance. Biden laid out plans for how he would get Covid-19 under control and reorient the economy toward being more equitable for lower-income Americans — two things Trump has not accomplished. For voters yearning for a return to some sense of normalcy, Biden hit all the right notes.
The night-and-day contrast served to highlight the core differences between the two options in front of the American people: continuing the reality TV maelstrom of the Trump presidency or a shift to a Biden presidency, where politics returns to being boring, and maybe even calm.
What follows is our attempt to figure out who benefited from the events and their striking contrasts — and who came out looking just a little bit worse.
Winner: Joe Biden
Biden’s town hall made a big case for the return of boring normalcy in the White House. Even though it may not have made for the most riveting television, it could well work in his favor.
Biden’s town hall harked back to the days when Americans didn’t have to worry about what the president was doing — or tweeting — every day. As Trump was being asked why he wouldn’t wear a mask at the NBC town hall, Biden was talking about how he has started wearing two masks, and talked about his plan for implementing mask-wearing around the country.
“We’re in a situation where we have 210,000-plus people dead and what’s he doing? Nothing. He’s still not wearing masks,” Biden said of Trump. “It is the presidential responsibility to lead. And he didn’t do that.”
While Trump’s recent Covid-19 diagnosis signaled the president’s failure to contain the coronavirus in his own White House, Biden finally got to explain — uninterrupted — how he would coordinate a federal response to stop the virus’s spread around the United States. He even brought notes.
Talking to the American people directly about Covid-19 and the havoc it has wreaked on millions of people’s lives was Biden’s strong suit in the first debate. The town hall format seemed to benefit him even more. Biden seemed sharp and prepared — talking about commonsense virus control tactics like wearing masks and making sure schools had good air ventilation.
“We need more teachers in our schools to be able to open, smaller pods,” Biden said. “We need ventilation systems changed. There’s a lot of things we know now.”
Just recognizing that there’s a way to make schools safer for students to return could be a welcome answer to millions of overworked, stressed parents who are trying to juggle working from home and overseeing their kids’ remote schooling at the same time.
Pollsters have found a consistent theme among voters who dislike Trump and favor Biden: They’re tired of the daily chaos of the past four years — whether it’s the revolving door for White House chiefs of staff or Trump catching Covid-19 himself.
If a comparatively boring town hall means America can go back to the days where the country doesn’t have to worry about what the president is tweeting, that’s a win for Biden.
—Ella Nilsen
Loser: Donald Trump
Trump wouldn’t say whether he was tested for the coronavirus before the first debate with Biden. He couldn’t defend his refusal to require mask use at his rallies. He tried to downplay broadcasting a wild conspiracy theory that Biden tried to have members of Seal Team 6 killed by saying “that was a retweet, I do a lot of retweets.” He suggested parts of the QAnon conspiracy theory could be true, saying “I don’t know” when Guthrie asked him whether he believes the Democratic Party is run by a cult of satanic pedophiles.
That may sound like a list of the lowlights from the night. But it was all in the first 15 minutes of the event.
You could call this “Trump being Trump,” and you’d probably be right. But the difference is that, this time around, Trump was facing questions from ordinary Americans whom he couldn’t talk over and a host who was unafraid to follow up repeatedly and fact-check the president in real time. This format made it much harder for Trump to ignore questions through his patented combination of lying, bluster, and deflection — forcing him to engage on his own record, the area where’s at his weakest.
Take this health care exchange, for example. After a question about making health care affordable and accessible, Guthrie followed up by asking Trump about his administration’s plans to replace Obamacare — and the glaring contradiction between its claim to protect coverage for people with preexisting conditions and its argument, in court, that all of Obamacare (including said coverage) is unconstitutional.
Here’s the end of the exchange:
GUTHRIE: You’ve been in office almost four years. You had both houses of Congress, Senate and House, in Republican hands. And there is not a replacement yet. TRUMP: That’s right. I’m sorry. But if you look, we had both houses and what did we do? We got rid of the individual mandate. GUTHRIE: The promise was repeal and replace. TRUMP: Look, look, we should be on the same side. I want it very simple. I’m going to put it very simple. We would like to terminate it and we would like to replace it with something that’s much less expensive and much better. We will always protect people with preexisting conditions. GUTHRIE: But if you’re successful in court in November, the preexisting conditions, that promise will be gone. TRUMP: If we don’t succeed, we are running the remnants of whatever is left because we took it apart. We are running the remnants of whatever is left much better than the previous administration, which ran it very badly. We would like to have new health care, much better and much less expensive.
Trump is unable to explain why he couldn’t come up with a better health care plan when his party controlled all three branches of government. His answer to the question about preexisting conditions is gibberish, largely because there is no good answer.
Trigger Alert: I’m about to say something that will upset many people reading my Twitter feed tonight.
My group of undecided voters say that the more Trump speaks, the worse he looks. — Frank Luntz (@FrankLuntz) October 16, 2020
If the town hall format brought out Biden’s strengths — his ability to empathize with voters, his long experience with and knowledge about policymaking — it brought out Trump’s weaknesses in the same areas. His event served to remind us that his presidency has been four years of chaos and conflict, with too little in the way of substance done to help ordinary Americans in an especially difficult time in our history.
Trump is trailing badly in the polls, and he desperately needed a strong performance to try to turn things around. This seems, if anything, more likely to make that hole a bit deeper.
—Zack Beauchamp
Winner: Substance
There were a few moments in Thursday’s ABC town hall where Biden sounded a bit like the progressive Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), a onetime rival for the Democratic nomination.
If Biden’s audience was looking for wonky statistics on issues from the economy to climate change, the former vice president had them.
Biden came prepared for his town hall with notes, at one point casually throwing around statistics about the British Thermal Unit as it pertains to wind and solar power, and talking about pelletizing chicken and cow manure to take out the methane that contributes to climate change.
“Electric vehicles will save billions of gallons of oil ... [and create] 1 million automobile jobs,” Biden said. “But we’re lagging. We’re not investing. We’re not doing the research.”
Discussing a long-standing racial wealth gap, Biden recognized that even as the economy has slowly recovered over the summer, the economic picture looks far bleaker for Black and brown workers. The most recent overall unemployment rate is 7.9 percent. But when you break it down along racial lines, the story on what’s happening is quite different: White unemployment is 7 percent, while Black unemployment is 12.1 percent and Hispanic unemployment is 10.3 percent.
“[Trump] talks about a V-shaped recovery; it’s a K-shaped recovery,” Biden said, pointing to the theory that those with means in America are bouncing back quite easily, while everyone else is suffering. “If you are on the top, you’re going to do very well. If you’re on the bottom, in the middle or the bottom, your income is coming down.”
At one point, Biden had a mea culpa about his 1994 crime law — one of the more controversial parts of his Senate history that contributed to mass incarceration in the 1990s and following decades.
After host George Stephanopoulos asked whether it was a mistake to support it, Biden simply responded, “Yes, it was.”
But Biden also tried to deflect blame away from the law’s original drafting, saying the worst effects of the crime bill came from state and local police departments implementing it themselves.
“Here’s where the mistake came: The mistake came in terms of what the states did locally,” Biden said. “What happened? They eliminated the funding for community policing.”
While Biden has adamantly come out against defunding the police and maintained that “most cops don’t like bad cops,” he told Stephanopoulos he wants more reforms and additional resources going to community policing and strengthening mental health resources.
Even if viewers may have disagreed with some of Biden’s stances, the nominee came prepared and showed off his policy chops.
—EN
Winner: FOMO
This election is a choice between two candidates. To actually decide whom they want to vote for, voters typically need to be informed about both candidates’ views and positions. But tonight, voters had to choose between the Biden town hall or the Trump town hall.
It was a real-time example of FOMO (fear of missing out) in action. If you were on social media during the town halls, you might have seen people talking about the town hall that you weren’t watching. But you couldn’t contribute to the conversation because you couldn’t tune in.
Only in this case, the stakes are very high. This isn’t missing a movie’s opening day or brunch with your friends. It’s missing the kind of event that voters genuinely rely on to inform their decisions about who will run the most powerful country in the world. That’s particularly true in this case, because tonight’s main political event was supposed to be a debate between Biden and Trump.
It didn’t have to be this way. The debate could have been held virtually, given Trump’s recent coronavirus infection, but the Trump campaign rejected the idea of a virtual debate. The town halls could have been scheduled at different days or times, but Trump reportedly wanted to beat Biden in the ratings in a direct, same-hour matchup.
So we got a mess of FOMO. Americans — and especially any remaining undecided voters — were left less informed as a result.
—German Lopez
Savannah Guthrie is a lead anchor on the Today show for a reason — and on Thursday night, it showed.
NBC got a lot of flak for programming a Trump town hall at the same time as the Biden event on ABC, especially given that it was the president who dropped out of the originally scheduled debate in the first place. Guthrie’s quick line of questioning, pushback, and real-time fact-checking of the president probably made the White House wish they had just done the debate.
Guthrie, who has co-anchored Today since 2012, opened the night reminding the audience why the event was happening in the first place — the president got Covid-19 and refused to participate in a virtual debate proposed for safety reasons, causing this dueling town hall mess.
And then she got to the questions. Were you tested the day of the last presidential debate in Cleveland, which took place just two days before Trump’s positive coronavirus test? How often are you tested? Why did you hold the event honoring Supreme Court nominee Judge Amy Coney Barrett at the White House without precautions? Shouldn’t you have known better? Are you blaming grieving military families for giving you Covid-19? Why did it take you two days to denounce white supremacy?
Then Guthrie asked the president about QAnon. In asking her question, she reminded him what it was — the dangerous conspiracy theory spreading across the internet that claims Democrats are behind a pedophilia ring and that sees Trump as a savior.
“Can you just once and for all state that this is completely not true and disavow QAnon in its entirety?” she asked. “I know nothing about QAnon,” he said. “I just told you,” she responded.
Guthrie also asked the president about something he retweeted suggesting that Biden had a Navy SEAL team killed to cover up that the death of Osama bin Laden was faked. (This is not true.)
“That was a retweet, that was an opinion of somebody,” Trump said.
“You’re the president; you’re not someone’s crazy uncle where you just retweet whatever,” Guthrie said.
Guthrie stepped into a tough spot on Thursday, and in that spot, she seized on the chance to ask questions that really matter to the American people — and press on their behalf to get answers.
—ES
Guthrie gave Trump as many opportunities as she could to denounce the online conspiracy theory about a satanic pedophilia ring run by global elites.
He wouldn’t do it.
“I don’t know anything about QAnon,” Trump said at first.
Guthrie pointed out she’d just explained the theory in brief: Prominent Democrats are satanic pedophiles and Trump is going to save the world from them.
So would Trump denounce QAnon? Quite the opposite.
“Let me just tell you what I do hear about it is they are very strongly against pedophilia and I agree with that,” Trump said. “I do agree with that.”
Guthrie pressed: “But there’s not a satanic cult.”
“I don’t know that,” the president said. “And neither do you know that.”
The rest of the short version of QAnon is that a top-level official — “Q” — is leaking a top-level state secret on the internet. Its believers thrive on tiny hints they claim they detect in official statements and social media posts by Trump and his confidants.
Now they had the president in front of a huge TV audience, saying that what he did know about QAnon, he agreed with.
—Dylan Scott
Loser: The individual mandate
The mandate has taken a beating lately, both from Trump and from health policy wonks.
At his town hall, the president defaulted to his favorite answer when a journalist or anybody points out he has not released a comprehensive health care plan, in case the Supreme Court overturns Obamacare early next year and millions of people could be at risk of losing health coverage.
When asked by a voter who buys her own health insurance about what his health care plan would be, Trump instead talked about his most significant legislative achievement on health care. As part of their tax bill, Republicans eliminated Obamacare’s financial penalty for failing to carry health insurance that was established by the 2010 health care law. (They had also, of course, failed to repeal and replace Obamacare earlier the same year.)
“We got rid of the individual mandate on Obamacare, which was the worst part of Obamacare, and now you could actually say it’s not Obamacare because that’s how big it was,” the president said.
Trump is right about one thing: The mandate was very unpopular. It makes sense for him politically to highlight how he got rid of it.
But he’s wrong about something else: Ending the mandate may not actually be that big of a deal in terms of how Obamacare functions.
A consensus has been forming among health policy experts that the mandate wasn’t as crucial to the law’s markets as its authors thought it would be because the actual size of the financial penalty was relatively small. More than 80 percent of the people who buy private insurance on the marketplaces get federal tax credits, which makes their premiums more affordable. Obamacare’s enrollment has declined only slightly since the mandate was repealed, from 12.2 million in 2017 to 11.4 million in 2020.
Yet Republican state officials, supported by the Justice Department, are suing to overturn the law in its entirety because the mandate is now gone. (To get into the weeds on the topic, read Vox’s Ian Millhiser.) Those millions of Americans who buy insurance on the marketplaces, and more than 12 million people covered by Medicaid expansion, could lose insurance unless there is a plan to cover them in that scenario.
“I want to give great health care,” the president said Thursday night, sounding much like he did four years ago. The rest is still TBD.
—DS
Loser: Trump’s purported toughness
If there’s anything we’ve been told over the past five years about Donald Trump, it’s that he’s “tough.” But responses to Trump’s performance in Thursday night’s town hall conversation with Guthrie from conservative media figures seemed to imply otherwise. They focused not on Trump’s answers, but on how “bullied” he was by Guthrie for asking him moderately difficult questions.
it takes a lot to make Trump look like the bullied one, but @SavannahGuthrie nailed it with flying colors. what an over-the-top performance by this frantic host — GregGutfeld (@greggutfeld) October 16, 2020
Trump is the president of the United States, and presumably would have the capacity to answer tough questions about his handling of the coronavirus and other issues (not to mention he had mocked Guthrie earlier Thursday during a rally).
And yet Fox News host and occasional Trump rally guest Sean Hannity introduced his show Thursday night saying, “NBC fake news did their best to ambush President Trump at tonight’s town hall,” and describing Guthrie as Biden’s surrogate.
Hannity kicks off his show tonight by complaining that Savannah Guthrie was very nasty to Trump.
"NBC fake news did their best to ambush President Trump at tonight’s town hall... it was a political debate with the morning host of [TODAY] serving as, well, Joe Biden's surrogate pic.twitter.com/y6thtHvDnH — Justin Baragona (@justinbaragona) October 16, 2020
The Trump campaign mirrored that language in a statement, again calling Guthrie a “Biden surrogate” and adding, “President Trump masterfully handled Guthrie’s attacks and interacted warmly and effectively with the voters in the room.”
Trump’s allies, in the face of his performance, focused on working the refs — the media. The rule for interviewing Donald Trump is very clear: He can be mean to you, but you have to be nice to him, obsequiously so, no matter what he says or does.
But this was Trump’s choice. As he said about the decision to do the town hall: “They asked me if I’d do it, and I figured what the hell? We’ll get a free hour of television.”
He did indeed. And now some of his biggest allies are very upset about it.
—Jane Coaston


vox--2020-10-15--Savannah Guthrie delivered the Trump interview we’ve been wanting for years

Savannah Guthrie is very good at interviewing Donald Trump .
The Today show co-anchor tapped to moderate the president ’ s town hall on NBC Thursday faced an uphill climb going in — a lot of observers were upset the event was happening at all .
After all , it was the president who pulled out of the originally scheduled debate in the first place .
Guthrie reminded viewers of the context at the outset of the night — the president got Covid-19 , the debate was changed to virtual , and then he withdrew — and then got to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ No line of inquiry came without multiple follow-ups , no unfounded assertion was made without a pushback .
She asked the president about a White House reception for Supreme Court nominee Amy Coney Barrett , the event that seems to have sparked a coronavirus outbreak among more than 20 people in the president ’ s close orbit and countless others .
“ At this point in the pandemic , knowing what we know , shouldn ’ t you have known better ?
Shouldn ’ t the White House know better than to hold @ @ @ @ @ @ @ asked .
Trump responded that there ’ s a lot of testing in the White House , he ’ s fine with masks ( he didn ’ t wear one at the event in question ) , and a lot of people who wear masks get Covid-19 anyway .
“ Hey , I ’ m president , I have to see people , ” Trump said .
Guthrie shot back : “ You can see people with a mask though , right ?
” Guthrie came in quick , she came in informed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ She didn ’ t let Trump just drone on in silence , but she also didn ’ t come back at him with a list of facts .
She just asked him to explain himself , to really answer her question , to just say the thing that is true .
She spent the first part of the evening as a one-on-one interview with Trump before turning to the audience , asking the president the types of questions many voters have .
Were you tested the day of the last presidential debate in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ days before your positive coronavirus test ?
How often are you tested ?
Are you blaming grieving military families for giving you Covid-19 ?
Why did it take you two days to denounce white supremacy ?
Guthrie asked the president about QAnon .
In asking her question , she reminded him what it was — the dangerous conspiracy theory spreading across the internet , that sees Trump as a savior and says Democrats are behind a pedophilia ring .
“ Can you just once and for all state that this is completely not @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ?
” she asked .
“ I know nothing about QAnon , ” he said .
Guthrie also asked the president about something he retweeted suggesting that Biden had a Navy SEAL team killed to cover up that the death of Osama bin Laden was faked .
( This is not true . )
“ That was a retweet , that was an opinion of somebody , ” Trump said .
“ You ’ re the president , you ’ re not someone ’ s crazy uncle where you just retweet whatever , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in the evening , a woman in the audience asked the president about the corporate tax rate , which the tax cut bill he signed into law in 2017 reduced from 35 percent to 21 percent .
She asked : How does that help ordinary people ?
Trump bragged about the economy pre-Covid-19 , and said it was rebounding , despite evidence the recovery is slowing , and promised a middle-income tax cut package should he be reelected .
( It ’ s something he tends to do whenever voting comes around .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ a follow-up question about Trump ’ s own taxes and bring up the New York Times report of his tax returns that revealed enormous amounts of debts and losses , and that the president barely pays any federal income taxes at all .
Trump told her the $ 400 million in debt he has isn ’ t that much “ compared to all the assets that I have , all of these great properties ” and yet again declined to release his tax returns publicly .
“ You could clear this up tonight @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , ” Guthrie said .
Trump didn ’ t take her up on the offer .
This presidential debate season ( or what little there has been of it ) has not been great for moderators — both Fox News ’ s Chris Wallace and USA Today ’ s Susan Page struggled to keep a handle on things during the presidential and vice presidential debates .
It also shouldn ’ t be lost on anyone that Guthrie ’ s performance lands four years after her former colleague , Matt Lauer , who was @ @ @ @ @ @ @ harassment claims , delivered a disastrous performance at his own presidential forum , featuring Trump and Hillary Clinton .
NBC was widely panned for its decision to host the Trump town hall on Thursday at the same time as Biden , and accused of kowtowing to the president for ratings .
And ahead of the event , the president seemed to already be setting the stage for claiming the network wasn ’ t playing fair , even though this was an arrangement very much of his own making .
Soon after the town @ @ @ @ @ @ @ released a statement saying that the president had “ soundly defeated ” Guthrie .
Guthrie is a familiar face in millions of American households — after all , she hosts a show that is a staple across the country .
She had the president of the United States on his heels during much of the evening , not because she was overly aggressive but because she was hyper-inquisitive .
Her strategy wasn ’ t complicated , it was honest .
Sometimes , we forget the questions Trump won ’ t answer are easy @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
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Savannah Guthrie is very good at interviewing Donald Trump.
The Today show co-anchor tapped to moderate the president’s town hall on NBC Thursday faced an uphill climb going in — a lot of observers were upset the event was happening at all. After all, it was the president who pulled out of the originally scheduled debate in the first place. Guthrie reminded viewers of the context at the outset of the night — the president got Covid-19, the debate was changed to virtual, and then he withdrew — and then got to questioning. And she was relentless. No line of inquiry came without multiple follow-ups, no unfounded assertion was made without a pushback.
She asked the president about a White House reception for Supreme Court nominee Judge Amy Coney Barrett, the event that seems to have sparked a coronavirus outbreak among more than 20 people in the president’s close orbit and countless others.
“At this point in the pandemic, knowing what we know, shouldn’t you have known better? Shouldn’t the White House know better than to hold an event like that?” she asked.
Trump responded that there’s a lot of testing in the White House, he’s fine with masks (he didn’t wear one at the event in question), and a lot of people who wear masks get Covid-19 anyway. “Hey, I’m president, I have to see people,” Trump said.
Guthrie shot back: “You can see people with a mask though, right?”
Guthrie came in quick, she came in informed, and she came in ready. She didn’t let Trump just drone on in silence, but she also didn’t come back at him with a list of facts. She just asked him to explain himself, to really answer her question, to just say the thing that is true.
She spent the first part of the evening as a one-on-one interview with Trump before turning to the audience, asking the president the types of questions many voters have. Were you tested the day of the last presidential debate in Cleveland, which took place just two days before your positive coronavirus test? How often are you tested? Are you blaming grieving military families for giving you Covid-19? Why did it take you two days to denounce white supremacy?
Guthrie asked the president about QAnon. In asking her question, she reminded him what it was — the dangerous conspiracy theory spreading across the internet, that sees Trump as a savior and says Democrats are behind a pedophilia ring.
Related Trump refuses to say the QAnon conspiracy theory is false
“Can you just once and for all state that this is completely not true and disavow QAnon in its entirety?” she asked. “I know nothing about QAnon,” he said.
“I just told you,” she responded.
Guthrie also asked the president about something he retweeted suggesting that Biden had a Navy SEAL team killed to cover up that the death of Osama bin Laden was faked. (This is not true.)
“That was a retweet, that was an opinion of somebody,” Trump said.
“You’re the president, you’re not someone’s crazy uncle where you just retweet whatever,” Guthrie said.
At one point in the evening, a woman in the audience asked the president about the corporate tax rate, which the tax cut bill he signed into law in 2017 reduced from 35 percent to 21 percent. She asked: How does that help ordinary people? Trump bragged about the economy pre-Covid-19, and said it was rebounding, despite evidence the recovery is slowing, and promised a middle-income tax cut package should he be reelected. (It’s something he tends to do whenever voting comes around.)
Guthrie took the opportunity to ask a follow-up question about Trump’s own taxes and bring up the New York Times report of his tax returns that revealed enormous amounts of debts and losses, and that the president barely pays any federal income taxes at all. Trump told her the $400 million in debt he has isn’t that much “compared to all the assets that I have, all of these great properties” and yet again declined to release his tax returns publicly.
“You could clear this up tonight by just releasing your tax returns yourself,” Guthrie said. Trump didn’t take her up on the offer.
.@SavannahGuthrie: “You could clear this up tonight by just releasing your tax returns yourself.”
President Trump: “As you know, I’m under audit.”
Savannah: “The IRS says that doesn’t stop you from releasing.” #TrumpTownHall pic.twitter.com/tpg3iOKf8X — NBC News (@NBCNews) October 16, 2020
This presidential debate season (or what little there has been of it) has not been great for moderators — both Fox News’s Chris Wallace and USA Today’s Susan Page struggled to keep a handle on things during the presidential and vice presidential debates. It also shouldn’t be lost on anyone that Guthrie’s performance lands four years after her former colleague, Matt Lauer, who was fired from the Today show over sexual harassment claims, delivered a disastrous performance at his own presidential forum, featuring Trump and Hillary Clinton.
NBC was widely panned for its decision to host the Trump town hall on Thursday at the same time as Biden, and accused of kowtowing to the president for ratings. And ahead of the event, the president seemed to already be setting the stage for claiming the network wasn’t playing fair, even though this was an arrangement very much of his own making. Soon after the town hall aired, Trump’s campaign released a statement saying that the president had “soundly defeated” Guthrie.
Guthrie is a familiar face in millions of American households — after all, she hosts a show that is a staple across the country. She had the president of the United States on his heels during much of the evening, not because she was overly aggressive but because she was hyper-inquisitive. Her strategy wasn’t complicated, it was honest.
Sometimes, we forget the questions Trump won’t answer are easy ones. Guthrie reminded us of that.


vox--2020-10-15--Biden says he doesn’t like court-packing — but he didn’t rule it out

If Democrats win the White House and both houses of Congress , they ’ ll face a devilish dilemma almost immediately after they take office .
Supreme Court nominee Judge Amy Coney Barrett will almost certainly be confirmed .
Republicans are about to gain a 6-3 majority on the Supreme Court , and with it , the power to strike down any policy pushed by Democrats .
The single most potent weapon a Democratic majority could deploy to prevent a Republican Supreme Court from sabotaging a Joe Biden presidency is court-packing — adding additional seats to the Supreme Court and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Which brings us to former Vice President Joe Biden ’ s response to a question about court-packing during an ABC News town hall event on Thursday night .
After moderator George Stephanopoulos asked Biden whether he would support expanding the Court , Biden offered a response that was simultaneously nuanced , noncommittal , and perhaps a thinly veiled threat to Republicans who are attempting to fill a Supreme Court seat in the middle of an election .
“ I have not been a fan of court-packing , ” Biden said , echoing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ days earlier .
But he added that his answer to the question of whether he would support adding seats to the Supreme Court “ depends on how ” the Barrett confirmation fight “ turns out.
” Barrett , Biden noted , is a “ controversial ” nominee “ in terms of ... fundamentally altering the makeup in a court.
” He added that his ultimate answer to the court-packing question “ depends on how much they rush ” the confirmation — “ they ” being Senate Republicans , who are pushing through Barrett @ @ @ @ @ @ @ recent Supreme Court nominee , in order to get her on the Supreme Court before the election .
As Stephanopoulos noted , Republicans plan to confirm Barrett close to Halloween , meaning that she would take her seat just days before Americans could vote Trump out of office .
Though Biden did not commit one way or the other to court-packing during the town hall , he did say he would provide an answer before the election , after being pressed by Stephanopoulos for a firm response .
And Biden reiterated that his @ @ @ @ @ @ @ handle the Barrett confirmation .
Biden ’ s refusal to rule out court-packing is significant .
In the past , he ’ s been far more critical of the notion .
Indeed , as recently as last July , Biden said he ’ s “ not prepared to go on and try to pack the court , because we ’ ll live to rue that day.
” But a lot has happened since July .
Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg has died .
Her seat is about to be filled by a staunch conservative @ @ @ @ @ @ @ this month that it would hear a case that could potentially drive the final nail into the Voting Rights Act ’ s coffin .
At the very least , the Court is likely to continue chipping away at America ’ s voting rights laws , empowering Republican state lawmakers to disenfranchise Democratic voters .
The price of packing the Court is quite high .
It means stripping the Court of much of its legitimacy .
And it invites retaliation if Republicans regain power .
But the price of leaving a 6-3 Republican Supreme @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
It potentially means Biden would be unable to govern even if his party wins in a landslide .
And a Republican Supreme Court could potentially entrench Republican rule for decades by gutting our voting rights laws .
Biden isn ’ t yet ready to decide which of these prices he ’ s willing to pay .
But he ’ s not ruling out court-packing .
Will you help keep Vox free for all ?
The United States is in the middle of one of the most consequential presidential elections of our lifetimes @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Americans are able to access clear , concise information on what the outcome of the election could mean for their lives , and the lives of their families and communities .
That is our mission at Vox .
But our distinctive brand of explanatory journalism takes resources .
Even when the economy and the news advertising market recovers , your support will be a critical part of sustaining our resource-intensive work .
If you have already contributed , thank you .
If you haven ’ t , please consider helping everyone understand this @ @ @ @ @ @ @ little as $ 3 .

If Democrats win the White House and both houses of Congress, they’ll face a devilish dilemma almost immediately after they take office.
Supreme Court nominee Judge Amy Coney Barrett will almost certainly be confirmed. Republicans are about to gain a 6-3 majority on the Supreme Court, and with it, the power to strike down any policy pushed by Democrats. The single most potent weapon a Democratic majority could deploy to prevent a Republican Supreme Court from sabotaging a Joe Biden presidency is court-packing — adding additional seats to the Supreme Court and swiftly filling those seats with Biden appointees.
Which brings us to former Vice President Joe Biden’s response to a question about court-packing during an ABC News town hall event on Thursday night.
After moderator George Stephanopoulos asked Biden whether he would support expanding the Court, Biden offered a response that was simultaneously nuanced, noncommittal, and perhaps a thinly veiled threat to Republicans who are attempting to fill a Supreme Court seat in the middle of an election.
Pressed repeatedly by @GStephanopoulos on his position on court packing, Joe Biden says, “I’m not a fan … it depends on how this turns out,” adding that it depends on how Republicans handle the confirmation of Supreme Court nominee Amy Coney Barrett. https://t.co/JEyTOkB6qk pic.twitter.com/rpcrzh5aRO — ABC News (@ABC) October 16, 2020
“I have not been a fan of court-packing,” Biden said, echoing sentiments he voiced to reporters a few days earlier. But he added that his answer to the question of whether he would support adding seats to the Supreme Court “depends on how” the Barrett confirmation fight “turns out.”
Barrett, Biden noted, is a “controversial” nominee “in terms of ... fundamentally altering the makeup in a court.” He added that his ultimate answer to the court-packing question “depends on how much they rush” the confirmation — “they” being Senate Republicans, who are pushing through Barrett’s confirmation far faster than any recent Supreme Court nominee, in order to get her on the Supreme Court before the election.
As Stephanopoulos noted, Republicans plan to confirm Barrett close to Halloween, meaning that she would take her seat just days before Americans could vote President Donald Trump out of office. Though Biden did not commit one way or the other to court-packing during the town hall, he did say he would provide an answer before the election, after being pressed by Stephanopoulos for a firm response. And Biden reiterated that his ultimate answer would depend on how Republicans handle the Barrett confirmation.
Biden’s refusal to rule out court-packing is significant. In the past, he’s been far more critical of the notion. Indeed, as recently as last July, Biden said he’s “not prepared to go on and try to pack the court, because we’ll live to rue that day.”
But a lot has happened since July. Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg has died. Her seat is about to be filled by a staunch conservative. And the Supreme Court announced early this month that it would hear a case that could potentially drive the final nail into the Voting Rights Act’s coffin. At the very least, the Court is likely to continue chipping away at America’s voting rights laws, empowering Republican state lawmakers to disenfranchise Democratic voters.
The price of packing the Court is quite high. It means stripping the Court of much of its legitimacy. And it invites retaliation if Republicans regain power.
But the price of leaving a 6-3 Republican Supreme Court in place is also quite high. It potentially means Biden would be unable to govern even if his party wins in a landslide. And a Republican Supreme Court could potentially entrench Republican rule for decades by gutting our voting rights laws.
Biden isn’t yet ready to decide which of these prices he’s willing to pay. But he’s not ruling out court-packing.


vox--2020-10-15--The delightful boringness of Joe Biden

The delightful boringness of Joe Biden

The closest sparks came to flying Thursday night at Joe Biden ’ s town hall was when the former vice president squared off with George Stephanopoulos over whether or not it would make sense to delay tax increases until the end of the recession .
Biden , who ’ d read off note cards the precise revenue estimates involved in a 7 percentage point increase in the corporate tax rate and a 2.6 percent increase in the top marginal income tax rate , explained that the way policymaking works is there ’ s inevitably a congressional negotiation , so he @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on timing .
That ’ s completely true .
That is how the government works .
It ’ s also an extremely boring answer .
As was Biden ’ s citing his desire to change the funding formula of Title I of the Elementary and Secondary Education Act as part of a larger program to help boost opportunities for Black Americans .
Or his thoughts on the possibility of using pelletized chicken manure as a biofuel source to reduce the net greenhouse gas emissions of the agriculture sector .
Biden does not do @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the command of detail that we associate with Hillary Clinton , or the mastery of explanation that made her husband famous .
And he certainly doesn ’ t reach the soaring oratorical heights of Barack Obama , who managed to elevate the most banal conversations .
Listening to Biden talk about public policy is like listening to , well , a veteran mainstream Senate Democrat .
It ’ s pretty boring .
And after four exhausting years of Donald Trump , it ’ s an incredible relief .
Pressed about the 1994 crime @ @ @ @ @ @ @ was a mostly good bill and also that the political context of 26 years ago , with much higher rates of violent crime , was very different .
That said , he agreed the United States had gone too far in terms of incarcerating people — especially for drug crimes .
The fault there , he said , is mostly at the state rather than the federal level , but his criminal justice plan would try to roll it back .
He said he doesn ’ t want to defund police , but @ @ @ @ @ @ @ aspects of how policing works .
He says most cops are good cops and good cops hate bad cops .
Biden wants to raise taxes but only on the rich .
On the pandemic , he was asked whether he ’ d mandate that people take a vaccine .
He said the way the government handles the vaccine is going to have to depend on specific elements of the factual situation , so what he ’ d do in the first instance is try to work on logistical issues related to distribution .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ but concedes you probably can ’ t do a federal mask mandate , so in practice he ’ d do a lot of meetings with governors .
Pressed on expansion of the Supreme Court , he said he doesn ’ t love the idea but also didn ’ t entirely rule it out .
Stephanopoulos was clearly a bit frustrated at times at Biden ’ s somewhat mealy-mouthed responses .
But there was nothing wrong with the answers .
They just weren ’ t very newsworthy .
Biden ’ s policy positions have @ @ @ @ @ @ @ not everyone in America has already read Vox ’ s full set of explainers , so they had some questions about them .
So then Biden answered them .
No news was made , and all of Biden ’ s views themselves are kind of boring and typical .
You could imagine him doing a lot of events like this and most people not finding them very interesting .
The dirty secret of Donald Trump ’ s often contentious relationship with the American press is that he ’ s been great for business @ @ @ @ @ @ @ at Trump , something crazy might happen .
He goes on television and insists that his attorney general prosecute his political opponents .
Biden , asked about legal accountability for Trump-era misdeeds , said it would be inappropriate for the president to be making that kind of decision .
He tries to take contentious flashpoint issues , and smother them in reasonableness and a broad sense of public decency .
As a journalist whose job involves trying to write articles people read I was , frankly , sad to have been assigned to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ was just not that interesting .
But as a citizen , it was tremendously reassuring .
Biden promises a higher minimum wage , more rigorous environmental enforcement , and a genuinely historic campaign against child poverty , which could fall by 74 percent if his program were fully implemented .
But he also promises a future in which a live camera pointed at the president of the United States might be a dull occurrence that nobody particularly wants to cover and only hardcore political junkies would be interested in watching .
An America @ @ @ @ @ @ @ their separate ways , leaving the business of governing the country to be done with some modicum of calm and dignity with leaders who try to address problems rather than putting out fires of their own making .
Will you help keep Vox free for all ?
The United States is in the middle of one of the most consequential presidential elections of our lifetimes .
It ’ s essential that all Americans are able to access clear , concise information on what the outcome of the election could mean for their lives @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and communities .
That is our mission at Vox .
But our distinctive brand of explanatory journalism takes resources .
Even when the economy and the news advertising market recovers , your support will be a critical part of sustaining our resource-intensive work .
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The closest sparks came to flying Thursday night at Joe Biden’s town hall was when the former vice president squared off with George Stephanopoulos over whether or not it would make sense to delay tax increases until the end of the recession.
Biden, who’d read off note cards the precise revenue estimates involved in a 7 percentage point increase in the corporate tax rate and a 2.6 percent increase in the top marginal income tax rate, explained that the way policymaking works is there’s inevitably a congressional negotiation, so he can’t make a specific commitment on timing.
That’s completely true. That is how the government works.
It’s also an extremely boring answer. As was Biden’s citing his desire to change the funding formula of Title I of the Elementary and Secondary Education Act as part of a larger program to help boost opportunities for Black Americans. Or his thoughts on the possibility of using pelletized chicken manure as a biofuel source to reduce the net greenhouse gas emissions of the agriculture sector.
Related Biden always understood what this election is about
Biden does not do this kind of in-the-weeds policy discussion with the command of detail that we associate with Hillary Clinton, or the mastery of explanation that made her husband famous. And he certainly doesn’t reach the soaring oratorical heights of Barack Obama, who managed to elevate the most banal conversations. Listening to Biden talk about public policy is like listening to, well, a veteran mainstream Senate Democrat. It’s pretty boring.
And after four exhausting years of Donald Trump, it’s an incredible relief.
Joe Biden has a lot of non-inflammatory opinions
Pressed about the 1994 crime bill, Biden explained he thought it was a mostly good bill and also that the political context of 26 years ago, with much higher rates of violent crime, was very different. That said, he agreed the United States had gone too far in terms of incarcerating people — especially for drug crimes. The fault there, he said, is mostly at the state rather than the federal level, but his criminal justice plan would try to roll it back.
He said he doesn’t want to defund police, but does want to reform a lot of aspects of how policing works. He says most cops are good cops and good cops hate bad cops.
Biden wants to raise taxes but only on the rich.
On the coronavirus pandemic, he was asked whether he’d mandate that people take a vaccine. He said the way the government handles the vaccine is going to have to depend on specific elements of the factual situation, so what he’d do in the first instance is try to work on logistical issues related to distribution. He wants everyone to wear masks, but concedes you probably can’t do a federal mask mandate, so in practice he’d do a lot of meetings with governors.
Pressed on expansion of the Supreme Court, he said he doesn’t love the idea but also didn’t entirely rule it out.
Stephanopoulos was clearly a bit frustrated at times at Biden’s somewhat mealy-mouthed responses. But there was nothing wrong with the answers. They just weren’t very newsworthy. Biden’s policy positions have been articulated for months, but evidently not everyone in America has already read Vox’s full set of explainers, so they had some questions about them. So Biden answered them.
No news was made, and all of Biden’s views themselves are kind of boring and typical. You could imagine him doing a lot of events like this and most people not finding them very interesting.
A calm, low-ratings future
The dirty secret of Donald Trump’s often contentious relationship with the American press is that he’s been great for business.
Any time you point a camera at Trump, something crazy might happen. He goes on television and insists that his attorney general prosecute his political opponents. Biden, asked about legal accountability for Trump-era misdeeds, said it would be inappropriate for the president to be making that kind of decision. He tries to take contentious flashpoint issues and smother them in reasonableness and a broad sense of public decency. As a journalist whose job involves trying to write articles people want to read, I was, frankly, sad to have been assigned to watch the Biden town hall, which was just not that interesting.
Biden is the opposite of Trump here; talking policy, a little in the weeds, reminding viewers he was in Congress. Long answers. Stephanopoulos stepping in from time to time. But if you are watching Trump -- no reason to change channels — adam nagourney (@adamnagourney) October 16, 2020
But as a citizen, it was tremendously reassuring.
Biden promises a higher minimum wage, more rigorous environmental enforcement, and a genuinely historic campaign against child poverty, which could fall by 74 percent if his program were fully implemented. But he also promises a future in which a live camera pointed at the president of the United States might be a dull occurrence that nobody particularly wants to cover and only hardcore political junkies would be interested in watching.
An America where politics and reality television could go their separate ways, leaving the business of governing the country to be done with some modicum of calm and dignity with leaders who try to address problems rather than putting out fires of their own making.
It was nice.


vox--2020-10-15--Trump refuses to say the QAnon conspiracy theory is false

President Donald Trump says he doesn ’ t know whether the QAnon conspiracy theory , which falsely contends prominent Democrats and global elites are part of a pedophile ring that only Trump can stop , is true or not .
At Trump ’ s NBC News town hall on Thursday , held in lieu of a debate with Joe Biden after a dispute over the format , moderator Savannah Guthrie gave Trump as many opportunities as she could to denounce the theory .
QAnon went viral on extremist internet forums before gaining more traction after it spread to YouTube , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ He wouldn ’ t do it .
“ I don ’ t know anything about Qanon , ” Trump said at first .
Guthrie pointed out she ’ d just explained it in brief : “ this theory that Democrats are part of a Satanic pedophile ring and that you are a savior.
” ( The rest of the extremely short version is that a top-level government official — “ Q ” — is leaking this secret onto the internet . )
So would Trump denounce QAnon once and for all ?
“ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ fact , ” Trump said .
“ I know they are very much against pedophilia , they fight it very hard.
” “ They believe it is a satanic cult run by the ‘ deep state , ’ ” Guthrie said .
Trump pivoted quickly to antifa , or “ anti-fascist.
” Republicans , led by Trump , have turned antifa into an election-year boogeyman , though the people who identified as part of it are generally disorganized and believe in an anarchic ideology .
Trump was annoyed that the moderator had first @ @ @ @ @ @ @ which he finally did , after not really doing so at the first presidential debate ) and was now asking about QAnon .
Guthrie tried to bring Trump back on topic , pointing out Sen. Ben Sasse ( R-NE ) had just recently said it should be easy for political leaders to condemn QAnon .
Trump , who has been reluctant to criticize any of his supporters in the past , said he “ just didn ’ t know ” about QAnon .
“ Let me just tell you what I do hear @ @ @ @ @ @ @ against pedophilia and I agree with that , ” Trump said .
“ I do agree with that.
” Trump wasn ’ t having it .
“ I don ’ t know that , ” the president said .
“ And neither do you know that .
Why aren ’ t you asking me about antifa ?
” Guthrie asked one more short follow-up , about a tweet written by someone else that Trump had shared .
It featured a conspiracy theory about Joe Biden , Seal Team 6 , and the death @ @ @ @ @ @ @ was a retweet , ” Trump said .
“ That was an opinion of somebody.
” As for the facts , here is how Vox ’ s Jane Coaston summarized a series of claims made by QAnon : Obviously , none of this happened .
There were no public riots or mass arrests or the use of emergency broadcasts .
( In fact , the Emergency Broadcast System went out of service in 1997 , replaced by the Emergency Alert System . )
The overwhelming majority of Q ’ s assertions have been @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Kim Jong Un was placed in power by the CIA , that Seth Rich was murdered by MS13 under orders from former DNC Chair Debbie Wasserman Schultz ( a viewpoint spread by congressional candidate Greene ) , that many prominent Democrats are currently wearing ankle monitors because they are secretly under arrest .
Instead , as Coaston explains , what ’ s really happening here is people are trying to make sense of the Trump era .
A combination of fragile human psychology and the superspreading capabilities of the internet has allowed the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ It ’ s preferable to the chaos .
This movement , such as it is , has had real life-or-death consequences .
Violence , including alleged murders , and public threats of violence have been perpetrated by people who are said to have believed in QAnon .
And on Thursday night , with millions of Americans watching , Trump declined to say whether he believed what any of QAnon claims to believe .
He said he didn ’ t really know anything about them .
Except for that they opposed pedophilia and so @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Will you help keep Vox free for all ?
The United States is in the middle of one of the most consequential presidential elections of our lifetimes .
It ’ s essential that all Americans are able to access clear , concise information on what the outcome of the election could mean for their lives , and the lives of their families and communities .
That is our mission at Vox .
But our distinctive brand of explanatory journalism takes resources .
Even when the economy and the news advertising market recovers , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of sustaining our resource-intensive work .
If you have already contributed , thank you .
If you haven ’ t , please consider helping everyone understand this presidential election : Contribute today from as little as $ 3 .

President Donald Trump says he doesn’t know whether the QAnon conspiracy theory, which falsely contends prominent Democrats and global elites are part of a pedophile ring that only Trump can stop, is true or not.
At Trump’s NBC News town hall on Thursday, held in lieu of a debate with Joe Biden after a dispute over the format, moderator Savannah Guthrie gave Trump as many opportunities as she could to denounce the theory. QAnon went viral on extremist internet forums before gaining more traction after it spread to YouTube, Reddit, and more mainstream websites.
He wouldn’t do it.
“I don’t know anything about QAnon,” Trump said at first.
Guthrie pointed out she’d just explained it in brief: “this theory that Democrats are part of a Satanic pedophile ring and that you are a savior.” (The rest of the extremely short version is that a top-level government official — “Q” — is leaking this secret onto the internet.)
So would Trump denounce QAnon once and for all?
“What you told me is not necessarily fact,” Trump said. “I know they are very much against pedophilia, they fight it very hard.”
“They believe it is a satanic cult run by the ‘deep state,’” Guthrie said.
Trump pivoted quickly to antifa, or “anti-fascist.” Republicans, led by Trump, have turned antifa into an election-year boogeyman, though the people who identify as part of it are generally disorganized and believe in an anarchic ideology. Trump was annoyed that the moderator had first asked him to denounce white supremacy (which he finally did, after not really doing so at the first presidential debate) and was now asking about QAnon.
Guthrie tried to bring Trump back on topic, pointing out Sen. Ben Sasse (R-NE) had just recently said it should be easy for political leaders to condemn QAnon. Trump, who has been reluctant to criticize any of his supporters in the past, said he “just didn’t know” about QAnon.
“Let me just tell you what I do hear about it is they are very strongly against pedophilia and I agree with that,” Trump said. “I do agree with that.”
“But there’s not a satanic cult,” Guthrie pressed.
Trump wasn’t having it. “I don’t know that,” the president said. “And neither do you know that. Why aren’t you asking me about antifa?”
Guthrie asked one more short follow-up, about a tweet written by someone else that Trump had shared. It featured a conspiracy theory about Joe Biden, Seal Team 6, and the death of Osama bin Laden.
“That was a retweet,” Trump said. “That was an opinion of somebody.”
As for the facts, here is how Vox’s Jane Coaston summarized a series of claims made by QAnon:
Obviously, none of this happened. There were no public riots or mass arrests or the use of emergency broadcasts. (In fact, the Emergency Broadcast System went out of service in 1997, replaced by the Emergency Alert System.) The overwhelming majority of Q’s assertions have been hilariously untrue: that North Korean leader Kim Jong Un was placed in power by the CIA, that Seth Rich was murdered by MS13 under orders from former DNC Chair Debbie Wasserman Schultz (a viewpoint spread by congressional candidate Greene), that many prominent Democrats are currently wearing ankle monitors because they are secretly under arrest.
Instead, as Coaston explains, what’s really happening here is people are trying to make sense of the Trump era. A combination of fragile human psychology and the superspreading capabilities of the internet has allowed the idea to fester and take hold. It’s preferable to the chaos.
This movement, such as it is, has had real life-or-death consequences. Violence, including alleged murders, and public threats of violence have been perpetrated by people who are said to have believed in QAnon.
And on Thursday night, with millions of Americans watching, Trump declined to say whether he believed what any of QAnon claims to believe. He said he didn’t really know anything about them. Except for that they opposed pedophilia and so, of course, did he.


vox--2020-10-15--The next presidential debate is the last one. Trump needs to make up a lot of ground.

The next presidential debate between President Donald Trump and Democratic nominee Joe Biden — following their dueling town halls Thursday night — is scheduled for 9 pm Eastern on October 22 , a week from now .
It will be the second showdown between the candidates after Trump ’ s Covid-19 diagnosis and disagreements over a virtual format scuttled plans for a debate this week .
It ’ s also the last debate on the schedule — and Election Day follows less than two weeks later .
Belmont University in Nashville , Tennessee , is hosting the debate , with @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to serve as moderator .
The issues to be covered during the 90-minute discussion have not yet been announced .
At this point , the October 22 debate looks like Trump ’ s last , best chance to shake up a campaign throughout which he has consistently trailed .
At the beginning of May , shortly after Bernie Sanders dropped out of the Democratic primary and cinched the nomination for Biden , the former vice president led Trump by 6.1 percentage points in FiveThirtyEight ’ s national polling average .
His lead has @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 10.5 percentage points as of October 15 .
The 2020 race has been defined by its remarkable stability in the polls .
Neither candidate experienced much of a convention bounce over the summer .
News narratives — particularly the Covid-19 pandemic and the resulting economic crisis — have probably undercut Trump ’ s support , but he was trailing Biden at the very beginning of the year , too .
The same issues still dominate the headlines and are likely to occupy most of the candidates ’ attentions in their final standoff .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ as the Senate Judiciary Committee ’ s scheduled vote on Amy Coney Barrett ’ s Supreme Court nomination .
The US is currently experiencing a new wave of Covid-19 cases , and nearly 900,000 Americans filed for unemployment assistance last week .
There have been signs of desperation from the Trump campaign , the latest being Rudy Giuliani ’ s extremely sketchy attempt to turn a Hunter Biden email into a national scandal .
The next debate will be the president ’ s final opportunity to make some of those attacks stick in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the polls .
But in fact , Trump and Biden ’ s first debate seems to have influenced the race the most so far .
Viewers overwhelmingly thought Biden won , given the president ’ s erratic performance , which was followed shortly by his positive coronavirus test .
On September 29 , the day of the first debate , FiveThirtyEight ’ s polling average showed Biden ahead by 7.1 percentage points ; since then , the gap has grown by more than 3 percentage points .
Biden also holds substantial , if @ @ @ @ @ @ @ most important swing states , giving him a clear path to 270 Electoral College votes .
Trump , on the other hand , needs to dramatically improve his standing in those states — or pin his hopes on a huge polling miss — in order to win reelection .
The October 22 debate is the last time the incumbent and his challenger will share a national TV platform from which to make their final arguments to America ’ s voters .
For Biden , he ’ ll want to hold steady and finish @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to reclaim some momentum .
That ’ s likely a serious challenge : Millions of Americans have already voted , and the president is running out of time .
Will you help keep Vox free for all ?
The United States is in the middle of one of the most consequential presidential elections of our lifetimes .
It ’ s essential that all Americans are able to access clear , concise information on what the outcome of the election could mean for their lives , and the lives of their families and communities @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
But our distinctive brand of explanatory journalism takes resources .
Even when the economy and the news advertising market recovers , your support will be a critical part of sustaining our resource-intensive work .
If you have already contributed , thank you .
If you haven ’ t , please consider helping everyone understand this presidential election : Contribute today from as little as $ 3 .

The next presidential debate between President Donald Trump and Democratic nominee Joe Biden — following their dueling town halls Thursday night — is scheduled for 9 pm Eastern on October 22, a week from now.
It will be the second showdown between the candidates after Trump’s Covid-19 diagnosis and disagreements over a virtual format scuttled plans for a debate this week. It’s also the last debate on the schedule — and Election Day follows less than two weeks later.
Belmont University in Nashville, Tennessee, is hosting the debate, with NBC News’s Kristen Welker slated to serve as moderator. The issues to be covered during the 90-minute discussion have not yet been announced.
At this point, the October 22 debate looks like Trump’s last, best chance to shake up a campaign throughout which he has consistently trailed. At the beginning of May, shortly after Bernie Sanders dropped out of the Democratic primary and cinched the nomination for Biden, the former vice president led Trump by 6.1 percentage points in FiveThirtyEight’s national polling average. His lead has only grown since then, sitting at 10.5 percentage points as of October 15.
The 2020 race has been defined by its remarkable stability in the polls. Neither candidate experienced much of a convention bounce over the summer. News narratives — particularly the Covid-19 pandemic and the resulting economic crisis — have probably undercut Trump’s support, but he was trailing Biden at the very beginning of the year, too.
The same issues still dominate the headlines and are likely to occupy most of the candidates’ attention in their final standoff. The debate takes place the same day as the Senate Judiciary Committee’s scheduled vote on Amy Coney Barrett’s Supreme Court nomination. The US is currently experiencing a new wave of Covid-19 cases, and nearly 900,000 Americans filed for unemployment assistance last week.
There have been signs of desperation from the Trump campaign, the latest being Rudy Giuliani’s extremely sketchy attempt to turn a Hunter Biden email into a national scandal. The next debate will be the president’s final opportunity to make some of those attacks stick in voters’ minds before they head to the polls.
But in fact, Trump and Biden’s first debate seems to have influenced the race the most so far. Viewers overwhelmingly thought Biden won, given the president’s erratic performance, which was followed shortly by his positive coronavirus test. On September 29, the day of the first debate, FiveThirtyEight’s polling average showed Biden ahead by 7.1 percentage points; since then, the gap has grown by more than 3 percentage points.
Biden also holds substantial, if not insurmountable, polling leads in the most important swing states, giving him a clear path to 270 Electoral College votes. Trump, on the other hand, needs to dramatically improve his standing in those states — or pin his hopes on a huge polling miss — in order to win reelection.
The October 22 debate is the last time the incumbent and his challenger will share a national TV platform from which to make their final arguments to America’s voters. For Biden, he’ll want to hold steady and finish the race strong, while Trump needs to reclaim some momentum. That’s likely a serious challenge: Millions of Americans have already voted, and the president is running out of time.
ntribute today from as little as $3.