vox--2020-07-13--The PPP worked how it was supposed to. That’s the problem.

Months after Congress created the Paycheck Protection Program ( PPP ) in an attempt to support small businesses during the Covid-19 pandemic , people are still confused , and even angry , over the ambitious , unprecedented experiment .
Take what happened with Mark Fisher Fitness ( MFF ) , an LGBTQ-friendly boutique fitness studio based in New York .
Because it got a PPP loan in April , it was able to rehire the 28 employees it laid off in March as the coronavirus crisis set in and its locations shuttered .
But for the loan to be forgivable @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in two months , mostly on payroll .
“ It did give us the ability to retain the whole staff for a period of eight weeks and keep that sense of community and of continuing our grand unicorn experiment to bring health and hotness to the masses , ” said Andrew Cole , chief people officer at MFF .
But the reprieve the PPP loan offered didn ’ t last long .
Even though MFF has pivoted to online classes for the foreseeable future , it ’ s once again had to lay @ @ @ @ @ @ @ closing one location permanently .
Still , compared to other small businesses that applied for PPP , it was lucky to get a loan at all .
Many small business owners — particularly minority-owned businesses — say they were denied loans for even a few thousand dollars , while larger enterprises like the Los Angeles Lakers and Shake Shack were awarded millions in loans .
( Facing public backlash , several of these larger businesses eventually returned the money . )
Others say the loan amounts they received were too small to help @ @ @ @ @ @ @ transparency with the program has fueled misconceptions about what PPP was supposed to accomplish in the first place .
The controversy surrounding the PPP , which supports businesses with 500 employees or fewer , has a lot to do with a disconnect between the program ’ s design and how Americans think about business .
The real goal of the PPP was to keep American workers on payroll , not to simply keep small businesses going .
And so the majority of the money was disbursed to businesses with more employees , rather @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
That ’ s why a program widely perceived as being meant to boost the United States ’ most vulnerable small businesses ended up prioritizing businesses that aren ’ t actually that small .
As the program nears a close — the last day for applications was extended from June 30 to August 8 — and it ’ s unclear whether there will be another round of loans , Recode examined the successes and failures of the PPP , as well as why the program ended up being so controversial .
The good @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of focusing on payrolls In May , the progressive pollster Data for Progress conducted a poll on behalf of Recode in an effort to gauge public perception of the PPP and how Americans feel about it .
It surveyed 1,235 likely voters online .
The poll revealed some dissonance in how Americans think about small business and who is and isn ’ t deserving of help .
When asked whether all businesses should get help to keep workers paid , 70 percent of respondents said yes .
But then when asked whether support @ @ @ @ @ @ @ employees , 76 percent said yes .
And when asked about whether the Los Angeles Lakers NBA team , which got a loan and then returned it after public outcry , should have given the money back , 75 percent said it was the right thing to do .
When asked what the goal of federal assistance to businesses should be , 58 percent of respondents said it should be to keep workers paid , while 24 percent said it should be to keep businesses afloat — and that explains , at least @ @ @ @ @ @ @ controversy .
It hasn ’ t been possible for many businesses to accomplish both of these goals at the same time , so they didn ’ t get what they needed to truly survive the pandemic , especially sole proprietorships or ones with just a few employees .
Yes , covering paychecks is important .
So is paying utilities and rent .
“ The design was to help companies fund their payroll .
One can step back and say , ‘ gosh , is that the design we wanted to have ?
’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ professor at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business .
“ It wasn ’ t called the small business protection program or the microbusiness protection program .
Companies in the 100 to 500 employee range have more payroll dollars than companies in the under 100 employees range .
That ’ s just math.
” According to a June report from the Small Business Administration ( SBA ) , the average PPP loan size is $ 107,000 , and the administration claims the program has supported 51 million jobs and as much as @ @ @ @ @ @ @ small businesses .
All of this adds some nuance to the controversies about big companies that got loans .
If the point of the PPP loans is to keep people employed , then what does it matter how many total employees a loan-receiving company has ?
Minnis pointed out that in criticizing bigger companies for getting loans , it ’ s important to recognize the counterfactual .
What if , after the Lakers returned the money , they immediately laid off all their concession workers ?
( This hasn ’ t actually happened @ @ @ @ @ @ @ car retailer AutoNation .
The company furloughed 7,000 workers in early April .
It applied to the program and received a $ 77 million loan , which it said it would use to rehire those workers .
But amid controversy , it wound up returning the loan .
The focus on payrolls has caused other wrinkles as well .
At the outset of the program , businesses had to spend 75 percent of loans on payroll within eight weeks in order for it to be forgivable .
Amid feedback from the business community @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the crisis is lasting more than eight weeks , Congress changed the parameters of the loans in mid-June to require 60 percent be spent on payroll over a period of 24 weeks .
But for many businesses , it was too little , too late .
“ The problem is these businesses are in week six or seven of their loan , so they ’ ve already used 80 percent of the money that was available , and they were paying people who weren ’ t working for them , ” said Daniel @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
That ’ s what happened with Mark Fisher Fitness .
“ I ’ m extremely happy for other small businesses that have the ability to let that money last longer , but it did sting a little bit , ” Cole said .
And just because a business got a loan doesn ’ t mean it was enough , even to cover its payroll .
Emilie Aries , the founder of Denver-based training services company Bossed Up , had only her salary on her 2019 payroll , which was used to calculate @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ t take into consideration the two new employees she ’ d hired this year , so she only got $ 9,000 .
“ I feel like we fell through a loophole , ” she said .
“ I hired my employees on January 1 and March 1 , and the whole point of this program is to protect employees , right ?
It did not do that for me.
” She wound up taking a 50 percent pay cut and using her existing line of credit with the bank to take out @ @ @ @ @ @ @ We were able to pivot successfully , ” she said , “ but I still have $ 15,000 in debt I wouldn ’ t have.
” For some businesses , even if PPP only offered a small loan , it still helped keep their businesses going .
Caleb Benoit , who runs Connect Roasters , a small coffee company in Illinois , had a relatively easy time getting a PPP loan from his small local bank .
He only got $ 2,500 , and while that doesn ’ t make a huge difference @ @ @ @ @ @ @ he considers it a helpful boost while he rejiggered his business .
“ The truth is , we ’ re okay financially ; we ’ re going to make it , ” he said .
“ We ’ re still small and pretty lean , we don ’ t have a lot of overhead , so we ’ re better suited to weather the storm.
” The problem with sticking to market-based solutions is that the market is kind of broken The PPP was designed to work within the current US economic system @ @ @ @ @ @ @ stacks the odds against smaller competitors and minorities .
And so the PPP has replicated those same flaws .
KB Brown runs Wolfpack Promotionals , one of only two Black-owned printing shops in Minnesota .
He estimates business has dropped by more than 90 percent since the onset of the pandemic , and he ’ s had to lay off all of his employees , so now only he and his wife are running the Minneapolis-based business .
The only requests they ’ re getting are George Floyd-related shirts , but he feels @ @ @ @ @ @ @ pain and prefers not to do them .
“ We don ’ t do the profiting off of other people ’ s misery and death thing , ” he said .
Brown has been trying for months to get an $ 8,000 PPP loan , first applying through Wells Fargo and then with Square .
He hasn ’ t had any luck .
“ It ’ s bullshit , ” he said .
“ I don ’ t think the loans are exactly designed for minorities.
” His assessment isn ’ t wrong @ @ @ @ @ @ @ by people of color have been shut out of the loans altogether , and some of those who received them got less than they asked for .
This is especially concerning because four out of every 10 Black-owned small businesses in the US aren ’ t expected to survive the current crisis .
The pandemic has already hit Black and brown communities in the US the hardest , in terms of both health and financial impacts .
“ This is a program that relies on financial institutions as intermediaries , ” said Ashley @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Center for Responsible Lending .
“ That poses a problem for business owners of color , given the history of financial exclusion by the financial mainstream in this country.
” People of color have , throughout America ’ s history , been shut out of financial systems and put at an economic disadvantage — which means the PPP ’ s design renders this outcome almost inevitable .
“ This is a program that relies on financial institutions as intermediaries .
That poses a problem for business owners of color , given the history @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in this country ” Many banks approving PPP loans accepted applications only from existing customers as a default .
That left out many minority-owned businesses , which often have weak relationships with banks as a result of years of systemic exclusion .
Moreover , because banks can collect bigger fees for bigger loans , that further incentivized bigger businesses to be prioritized over smaller ones .
And the processes for getting the loan and for having it forgiven are complicated .
Sole proprietorships ( businesses owned and run by one person ) , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ just a handful of employees are low on resources to begin with .
They don ’ t have a team of accountants and human resources personnel to help them navigate the paperwork .
“ Reflexively , we rely on market mechanisms to solve problems , ” said Felicia Wong , president and CEO of progressive think tank the Roosevelt Institute , in an interview earlier this year about PPP .
“ We chose this way to do this that is market-driven and market-mediated , and it ’ s hugely problematic.
” The government @ @ @ @ @ @ @ give money directly to workers or to businesses .
Instead , it put financial institutions in the mix , and they brought with them the flaws and biases of the private market .
The $ 500 billion question that might never be fully answered Beyond the controversies about who did and didn ’ t get loans and how the program was implemented , there ’ s another problem with it : a lack of transparency .
A total of $ 521 billion in loans was given out through the PPP , and we @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ended up .
The federal government initially resisted calls for more transparency into who ’ s receiving PPP loans , saying that the information is “ proprietary ” and “ confidential.
” After intense public pressure , the government relented and released information in July on nearly 700,000 PPP loans of $ 150,000 or higher .
Among the recipients : businesses connected to President Donald Trump ’ s son-in-law , Jared Kushner , and Kanye West ’ s fashion brand , Yeezy .
“ Reflexively , we rely on market mechanisms to solve @ @ @ @ @ @ @ do this that is market-driven and market-mediated , and it ’ s hugely problematic ” As the Washington Post notes , the data release is just 15 percent of all of the loans issued and leaves out the majority of sole proprietorships and independent contractors .
And the data released was riddled with errors — some businesses listed as receiving loans hadn ’ t actually gotten them , and some amounts were incorrectly reported .
“ The fact that we are not getting the same level of transparency for the … program is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Business Administration knows how to do this and lenders know how to do this , ” Harrington said .
And so going forward , lawmakers , think tanks , and academics are going to be working with incomplete information as they assess how the program worked and where the money wound up .
A recent tracker developed to collect data on the US ’ s Covid-19 economic response paints an initial picture that isn ’ t particularly positive .
It found the PPP didn ’ t have a “ meaningful effect ” on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ mid-May .
Other plans to support small businesses have formed in Congress that their proponents say would be better approaches than the PPP .
House Democrats are leaning into proposals that expand the program to more businesses , get rid of banks as intermediaries , and turn loans into grants .
Whether there ’ s an appetite for such a program from Republicans in the Senate is an open question , as is what else should be done to help businesses .
Politico reports that Congress is hesitant to give out future aid @ @ @ @ @ @ @ over the program .
“ We really need to think beyond this .
This one-size-fits-all approach does not work for all businesses , and because we know that — what other relief is needed ?
” Harrington said .
“ What other programs should be created to provide direct grants from the federal government to businesses ?
” Every day at Vox , we aim to answer your most important questions and provide you , and our audience around the world , with information that has the power to save lives .
Our @ @ @ @ @ @ @ it is in this moment : to empower you through understanding .
Vox ’ s work is reaching more people than ever , but our distinctive brand of explanatory journalism takes resources — particularly during a pandemic and an economic downturn .
Your financial contribution will not constitute a donation , but it will enable our staff to continue to offer free articles , videos , and podcasts at the quality and volume that this moment requires .
Please consider making a contribution to Vox today .

Months after Congress created the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) in an attempt to support small businesses during the Covid-19 pandemic, people are still confused, and even angry, over the ambitious, unprecedented experiment.
Take what happened with Mark Fisher Fitness (MFF), an LGBTQ-friendly boutique fitness studio based in New York. Because it got a PPP loan in April, it was able to rehire the 28 employees it laid off in March as the coronavirus crisis set in and its locations shuttered. But for the loan to be forgivable, MFF had to spend the money in two months, mostly on payroll.
“It did give us the ability to retain the whole staff for a period of eight weeks and keep that sense of community and of continuing our grand unicorn experiment to bring health and hotness to the masses,” said Andrew Cole, chief people officer at MFF.
But the reprieve the PPP loan offered didn’t last long. Even though MFF has pivoted to online classes for the foreseeable future, it’s once again had to lay off most of its staff and is closing one of its two locations permanently.
Still, compared to other small businesses that applied for the PPP, it was lucky to get a loan at all. Many small-business owners — particularly minority-owned businesses — say they were denied loans for even a few thousand dollars, while larger enterprises like the Los Angeles Lakers and Shake Shack were awarded millions in loans. (Facing public backlash, several of these larger businesses eventually returned the money.) Others say the loan amounts they received were too small to help at all. And a lack of transparency with the program has fueled misconceptions about what the PPP was supposed to accomplish in the first place.
The controversy surrounding the PPP, which supports businesses with 500 employees or fewer, has a lot to do with a disconnect between the program’s design and how Americans think about business. The real goal of the PPP was to keep American workers on payroll, not to simply keep small businesses going. And so the majority of the money was disbursed to businesses with more employees, rather than to tiny ones with small staffs. That’s why a program widely perceived as being meant to boost the United States’ most vulnerable small businesses ended up prioritizing businesses that aren’t actually that small.
As the program nears a close — the last day for applications was extended from June 30 to August 8 — and it’s unclear whether there will be another round of loans, Recode examined the successes and failures of the PPP, as well as why the program ended up being so controversial.
The good, the bad, and the ugly of focusing on payrolls
In May, the progressive pollster Data for Progress conducted a poll on behalf of Recode in an effort to gauge public perception of the PPP and how Americans feel about it. It surveyed 1,235 likely voters online.
The poll revealed some dissonance in how Americans think about small business and who is and isn’t deserving of help. When asked whether all businesses should get help to keep workers paid, 70 percent of respondents said yes. But when asked whether support should be capped at businesses with 500 employees, 76 percent said yes. And when asked about whether the Los Angeles Lakers NBA team, which got a loan and then returned it after public outcry, should have given the money back, 75 percent said it was the right thing to do.
When asked what the goal of federal assistance to businesses should be, 58 percent of respondents said it should be to keep workers paid, while 24 percent said it should be to keep businesses afloat — and that explains, at least partly, why the program has attracted controversy. It hasn’t been possible for many businesses to accomplish both of these goals at the same time, so they didn’t get what they needed to truly survive the pandemic, especially sole proprietorships or ones with just a few employees. Yes, covering paychecks is important. So is paying utilities and rent.
“The design was to help companies fund their payroll. One can step back and say, ‘Gosh, is that the design we wanted to have?’” said Michael Minnis, an accounting professor at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business. “It wasn’t called the small business protection program or the microbusiness protection program. Companies in the 100- to 500-employee range have more payroll dollars than companies in the under-100-employees range. That’s just math.”
Related Government loans meant to bail out small businesses could become a financial burden themselves
According to a June report from the Small Business Administration (SBA), the average PPP loan size is $107,000, and the administration claims the program has supported 51 million jobs and as much as 84 percent of all people employed by small businesses.
All of this adds some nuance to the controversies about big companies that got loans. If the point of the PPP loans is to keep people employed, then what does it matter how many total employees a loan-receiving company has?
Minnis pointed out that in criticizing bigger companies for getting loans, it’s important to recognize the counterfactual. What if, after the Lakers returned the money, they immediately laid off all their concession workers? (This hasn’t actually happened.) Or take the case of the car retailer AutoNation. The company furloughed 7,000 workers in early April. It applied to the program and received a $77 million loan, which it said it would use to rehire those workers. But amid controversy, it wound up returning the loan.
The focus on payrolls has caused other wrinkles as well.
At the outset of the program, businesses had to spend 75 percent of loans on payroll within eight weeks in order for it to be forgivable. Amid feedback from the business community that they have other expenses and that the crisis is lasting more than eight weeks, Congress changed the parameters of the loans in mid-June to require 60 percent be spent on payroll over 24 weeks.
But for many businesses, it was too little, too late. “The problem is these businesses are in week six or seven of their loan, so they’ve already used 80 percent of the money that was available, and they were paying people who weren’t working for them,” said Daniel Rafeedie, CEO of payroll company PaySteady.
That’s what happened with Mark Fisher Fitness. “I’m extremely happy for other small businesses that have the ability to let that money last longer, but it did sting a little bit,” Cole said.
And just because a business got a loan doesn’t mean it was enough, even to cover its payroll. Emilie Aries, the founder of the Denver-based training services company Bossed Up, had only her salary on her 2019 payroll, which was used to calculate her PPP loan amount. It didn’t take into consideration the two new employees she’d hired this year, so she only got $9,000. “I feel like we fell through a loophole,” she said. “I hired my employees on January 1 and March 1, and the whole point of this program is to protect employees, right? It did not do that for me.”
She wound up taking a 50 percent pay cut and using her existing line of credit with the bank to take out another loan to stay afloat. “We were able to pivot successfully,” she said, “but I still have $15,000 in debt I wouldn’t have.”
For some businesses, even if PPP only offered a small loan, it still helped keep their businesses going. Caleb Benoit, who runs Connect Roasters, a small coffee company in Illinois, had a relatively easy time getting a PPP loan from his small local bank. He only got $2,500, and while that doesn’t make a huge difference in his ability to stay afloat, he considers it a helpful boost while he rejiggered his business. “The truth is, we’re okay financially; we’re going to make it,” he said. “We’re still small and pretty lean, we don’t have a lot of overhead, so we’re better suited to weather the storm.”
The problem with sticking to market-based solutions is that the market is kind of broken
The PPP was designed to work within the current US economic system — one that is already imbalanced and stacks the odds against smaller competitors and minorities. And so the PPP has replicated those same flaws.
KB Brown runs Wolfpack Promotionals, one of only two Black-owned printing shops in Minnesota. He estimates business has dropped by more than 90 percent since the onset of the pandemic, and he’s had to lay off all of his employees, so now only he and his wife are running the Minneapolis-based business. The only requests they’re getting are George Floyd-related shirts, but he feels strange about commercializing someone else’s pain and prefers not to do them. “We don’t do the profiting off of other people’s misery and death thing,” he said.
Brown has been trying for months to get an $8,000 PPP loan, first applying through Wells Fargo and then with Square. He hasn’t had any luck. “It’s bullshit,” he said. “I don’t think the loans are exactly designed for minorities.”
His assessment isn’t wrong: The majority of small businesses owned by people of color have been shut out of the loans altogether, and some of those who received them got less than they asked for. This is especially concerning because four out of every 10 Black-owned small businesses in the US aren’t expected to survive the current crisis. The pandemic has already hit Black and brown communities in the US the hardest, in terms of both health and financial impacts.
“This is a program that relies on financial institutions as intermediaries,” said Ashley Harrington, federal advocacy director at the Center for Responsible Lending. “That poses a problem for business owners of color, given the history of financial exclusion by the financial mainstream in this country.”
People of color have, throughout America’s history, been shut out of financial systems and put at an economic disadvantage — which means the PPP’s design renders this outcome almost inevitable.
“This is a program that relies on financial institutions as intermediaries. That poses a problem for business owners of color, given the history of financial exclusion by the financial mainstream in this country”
Many banks approving PPP loans accepted applications only from existing customers as a default. That left out many minority-owned businesses, which often have weak relationships with banks as a result of years of systemic exclusion.
Moreover, because banks can collect bigger fees for bigger loans, that further incentivized bigger businesses to be prioritized over smaller ones. And the processes for getting the loan and for having it forgiven are complicated. Sole proprietorships (businesses owned and run by one person), independent contractors, and tiny businesses with just a handful of employees are low on resources to begin with. They don’t have a team of accountants and human resources personnel to help them navigate the paperwork.
“Reflexively, we rely on market mechanisms to solve problems,” said Felicia Wong, president and CEO of the progressive think tank the Roosevelt Institute, in an interview earlier this year about PPP. “We chose this way to do this that is market-driven and market-mediated, and it’s hugely problematic.”
The government could have set up a system to give money directly to workers or to businesses. Instead, it put financial institutions in the mix, and they brought with them the flaws and biases of the private market.
The $500 billion question that might never be fully answered
Beyond the controversies about who did and didn’t get loans and how the program was implemented, there’s another problem with it: a lack of transparency. A total of $521 billion in loans was given out through the PPP, and we might never know where all the money ended up.
The federal government initially resisted calls for more transparency into who’s receiving PPP loans, saying that the information is “proprietary” and “confidential.” After intense public pressure, the government relented and released information in July on nearly 700,000 PPP loans of $150,000 or higher. Among the recipients: businesses connected to President Donald Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner, and Kanye West’s fashion brand, Yeezy.
“Reflexively, we rely on market mechanisms to solve problems. We chose this way to do this that is market-driven and market-mediated, and it’s hugely problematic.”
As the Washington Post notes, the data release is just 15 percent of all the loans issued and leaves out the majority of sole proprietorships and independent contractors. And the data released was riddled with errors — some businesses listed as receiving loans hadn’t actually gotten them, and some amounts were incorrectly reported.
“The fact that we are not getting the same level of transparency for the … program is that much more problematic given the Small Business Administration knows how to do this and lenders know how to do this,” Harrington said.
So going forward, lawmakers, think tanks, and academics are going to be working with incomplete information as they assess how the program worked and where the money wound up. A recent tracker developed to collect data on the US’s Covid-19 economic response paints an initial picture that isn’t particularly positive. It found the PPP didn’t have a “meaningful effect” on unemployment at small businesses at least through mid-May.
Other plans to support small businesses have formed in Congress that their proponents say would be better approaches than the PPP. House Democrats are leaning into proposals that expand the program to more businesses, get rid of banks as intermediaries, and turn loans into grants. Whether there’s an appetite for such a program from Republicans in the Senate is an open question, as is what else should be done to help businesses. Politico reports that Congress is hesitant to give out future aid without tighter restrictions, given the uproar over the program.
“We really need to think beyond this. This one-size-fits-all approach does not work for all businesses, and because we know that — what other relief is needed?” Harrington said. “What other programs should be created to provide direct grants from the federal government to businesses?”


vox--2020-07-13--College towns without college students have small businesses struggling

Most weekends from around 8 am to 2 pm , Lou ’ s Restaurant & Bakery is packed .
Some choose to pick up a pastry and a cup of coffee at the quick service area near the front of the restaurant .
For those who want to dine in , there are classic 1950s diner booths , but they ’ re often filled with hungry students .
Most of the time , down the center of the dining room there ’ s a line of Dartmouth kids and locals waiting to be seated .
But since the coronavirus outbreak @ @ @ @ @ @ @ campus , the booths at Lou ’ s have remained empty .
Hanover , New Hampshire , is a small town with a tight-knit community , where local businesses rely on college students to survive .
“ It still is a little bit eerie that the dining room is just empty all the time , ” said Lou ’ s owner Jarret Berke .
The Covid-19 pandemic forced college students around the country to evacuate campuses in mid-March .
Many departed for spring break and never returned .
Professors scrambled to move courses @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for the remainder of the spring semester with no clear return date in sight , and seniors had their graduation ceremonies canceled as colleges and universities were forced to navigate higher education in a remote world .
But when students left school , they abandoned more than just messy dorm rooms .
Local businesses in college areas suffered economic losses as their regulars finished the academic year from their homes all over the world .
“ A big chunk of our customer base left town so it made it very difficult , ” @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the students left , when really the whole country went into lockdown , we saw about a 70 percent decline in sales.
” By innovating and finding new sources of revenue like takeout and revised menus , Lou ’ s now is able to maintain around 75 percent of its normal sales .
“ We ’ re still not doing great .
We still would love to have the students back , but it ’ s enough that we can survive for a while , ” Berke said .
In a 2017 article @ @ @ @ @ @ @ how , in recent years , small colleges have been thought of as mechanisms to save and develop local economies : “ The main benefits of educational institutions are twofold : They often produce research and technology that can be parlayed into new businesses , creating jobs nearby .
And they bring to the area students , who spend money on restaurants and services , and attract professors and administrators , who do the same and also buy houses and cars , ” Semuels wrote .
As Gallup ’ s principal economist Jonathan @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the pandemic and college students leaving campuses will significantly impact the cities and towns where they ’ re located .
Zeller explained that college towns and neighborhoods are appealing places to move to because of local restaurants , coffee shops , and bookstores .
But those businesses need students to be successful .
“ If that source of demand disappears for an extended period of time , those businesses are going to disappear , and that ’ s going to make that neighborhood a much less attractive place , ” Zeller said .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ just overall depressing effects on the local economy.
” “ If that source of demand disappears for an extended period of time , those businesses are going to disappear ” When students are away from home , they often find comfort and community in local restaurants and cafes surrounding college campuses .
Tim Norris , the owner of Mom ’ s Dream Kitchen , a Southern cuisine restaurant in Jackson , Mississippi , said that students from nearby schools like Jackson State University often gravitate toward the home-cooked meals at his restaurant .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ were away from home , ” he said .
But like other local restaurants , Mom ’ s Dream Kitchen suffered from the loss of student customers .
“ Since the pandemic , school pretty much shut down so a lot of our college students were no longer on campus , so we lost a lot of business , ” Norris said .
The sharp decline of local businesses in college towns has impacted Americans all over the country .
Restaurants and shops near Bowdoin College were described as “ reeling ” after @ @ @ @ @ @ @ University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill considered closing .
The neighborhood surrounding the University of Pennsylvania “ lost its life.
” Some colleges and universities have even stepped in to help temper the effects of students leaving campuses by waving rent expenses for businesses that lease commercial spaces from them .
Cornell University gave $ 100,000 to a fund in order to support Ithaca businesses .
Students and alumni have also made efforts to save local restaurants and shops as the pandemic costs them significant revenue .
Middlebury College alum Nicholas Milazzo @ @ @ @ @ @ @ than $ 10,000 for five Middlebury , Vermont , restaurants .
Milazzo , who formerly worked as an EMT and is applying to medical school next year , wanted to find a concrete way to make a difference without putting his family at risk of contracting the virus .
“ Middlebury already has trouble keeping its businesses going just because they ’ re so reliant on the students , and the students are gone for half the year , ” Milazzo said .
“ So I figured , well , if restaurants in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , I bet the same is happening in Middlebury.
” Milazzo started distributing the money among five local businesses around a month ago , with each receiving more than $ 2,000 .
“ Right away , a lot of people , before they left or when their families were picking them up , got gift cards or bought gift cards online , ” said Matthew Delia-Lobo , co-owner of Royal Oak Coffee in Middlebury .
The GoFundMe cash , he said , was “ insanely helpful.
” Royal Oak , which Delia-Lobo opened @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Alessandra , mainly employs students from Middlebury College .
When their employees had to leave campus , the Delia-Lobos were forced to run Royal Oak alone .
They also lost revenue they usually make from graduation events and summer programs , both of which were canceled .
Royal Oak has two locations , and because of the lack of business , the Delia-Lobos had to temporarily close the one closer to campus .
“ Both of us just hustled and worked every single day ” “ Both of us just hustled and worked @ @ @ @ @ @ @ said .
Until students can return to college campuses , local businesses are finding new revenue streams to survive .
Lou ’ s , for example , created a dinner menu targeted toward families , and Mom ’ s Dream Kitchen has been doing more delivery orders through GrubHub , Waitr , and Uber Eats .
As some colleges prepare to bring students back to campus in the fall , businesses are reimagining what their day-to-day will look like .
At the same time , they are grappling with fears surrounding the risks @ @ @ @ @ @ @ world back to college campuses .
“ A big kind of draw to any coffee shop in a college town is ‘ I can sit and study or do homework , ’ or , you know , sit inside and socialize , ” Alessandra Delia-Lobo said .
“ So I ’ m a little worried that , you know , that draw won ’ t be there if we can ’ t open inside , because I ’ m worried things won ’ t improve fast enough.
” Business owners remain cautiously optimistic @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the dangers of reopening during a pandemic .
While many colleges and universities are doing whatever it takes to get students back on campus , from dorms on tennis courts to contact-tracing apps , there is no way to ensure safety until a vaccine is widely available .
“ The thought of a couple thousand people from all over the country , all over the world , coming into Hanover where we haven ’ t had an active case in about four weeks , it ’ s a little scary , ” Berke @ @ @ @ @ @ @ we aim to answer your most important questions and provide you , and our audience around the world , with information that has the power to save lives .
Our mission has never been more vital than it is in this moment : to empower you through understanding .
Vox ’ s work is reaching more people than ever , but our distinctive brand of explanatory journalism takes resources — particularly during a pandemic and an economic downturn .
Your financial contribution will not constitute a donation , but it will enable our @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , videos , and podcasts at the quality and volume that this moment requires .
Please consider making a contribution to Vox today .

Most weekends from around 8 am to 2 pm, Lou’s Restaurant & Bakery is packed. Some choose to pick up a pastry and a cup of coffee at the quick service area near the front of the restaurant. For those who want to dine in, there are classic 1950s diner booths, but they’re often filled with hungry students. Most of the time, down the center of the dining room there’s a line of Dartmouth kids and locals waiting to be seated.
But since the coronavirus outbreak forced students to leave Dartmouth’s campus, the booths at Lou’s have remained empty. Hanover, New Hampshire, is a small town with a tight-knit community, where local businesses rely on college students to survive.
“It still is a little bit eerie that the dining room is just empty all the time,” said Lou’s owner Jarret Berke.
The Covid-19 pandemic forced college students around the country to evacuate campuses in mid-March. Many departed for spring break and never returned. Professors scrambled to move courses online, students moved home or off-campus for the remainder of the spring semester with no clear return date in sight, and seniors had their graduation ceremonies canceled as colleges and universities were forced to navigate higher education in a remote world.
But when students left school, they abandoned more than just messy dorm rooms. Local businesses in college areas suffered economic losses as their regulars finished the academic year from their homes all over the world.
“A big chunk of our customer base left town so it made it very difficult,” Berke said. “Initially, after the students left, when really the whole country went into lockdown, we saw about a 70 percent decline in sales.”
By innovating and finding new sources of revenue like takeout and revised menus, Lou’s now is able to maintain around 75 percent of its normal sales.
“We’re still not doing great. We still would love to have the students back, but it’s enough that we can survive for a while,” Berke said.
In a 2017 article for the Atlantic, Alana Semuels explained how, in recent years, small colleges have been thought of as mechanisms to save and develop local economies: “The main benefits of educational institutions are twofold: They often produce research and technology that can be parlayed into new businesses, creating jobs nearby. And they bring to the area students, who spend money on restaurants and services, and attract professors and administrators, who do the same and also buy houses and cars,” Semuels wrote.
As Gallup’s principal economist Jonathan Zeller told Vox, the reality of the pandemic and college students leaving campuses will significantly impact the cities and towns where they’re located. Zeller explained that college towns and neighborhoods are appealing places to move to because of local restaurants, coffee shops, and bookstores. But those businesses need students to be successful.
“If that source of demand disappears for an extended period of time, those businesses are going to disappear, and that’s going to make that neighborhood a much less attractive place,” Zeller said. “It’s going to have just overall depressing effects on the local economy.”
“If that source of demand disappears for an extended period of time, those businesses are going to disappear”
When students are away from home, they often find comfort and community in local restaurants and cafes surrounding college campuses.
Tim Norris, the owner of Mom’s Dream Kitchen, a Southern cuisine restaurant in Jackson, Mississippi, said that students from nearby schools like Jackson State University often gravitate toward the home-cooked meals at his restaurant.
“They wanted home cooking because they were away from home,” he said.
But like other local restaurants, Mom’s Dream Kitchen suffered from the loss of student customers.
“Since the pandemic, school pretty much shut down so a lot of our college students were no longer on campus, so we lost a lot of business,” Norris said.
The sharp decline of local businesses in college towns has impacted Americans all over the country. Restaurants and shops near Bowdoin College were described as “reeling” after students left campus. Businesses near the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill considered closing. The neighborhood surrounding the University of Pennsylvania “lost its life.” Some colleges and universities have even stepped in to help temper the effects of students leaving campuses by waving rent expenses for businesses that lease commercial spaces from them. Cornell University gave $100,000 to a fund in order to support Ithaca businesses.
Students and alumni have also made efforts to save local restaurants and shops as the pandemic costs them significant revenue. Middlebury College alum Nicholas Milazzo launched a GoFundMe that has raised more than $10,000 for five Middlebury, Vermont, restaurants. Milazzo, who formerly worked as an EMT and is applying to medical school next year, wanted to find a concrete way to make a difference without putting his family at risk of contracting the virus.
“Middlebury already has trouble keeping its businesses going just because they’re so reliant on the students, and the students are gone for half the year,” Milazzo said. “So I figured, well, if restaurants in New York City are getting hit hard, I bet the same is happening in Middlebury.”
Milazzo started distributing the money among five local businesses around a month ago, with each receiving more than $2,000.
“Right away, a lot of people, before they left or when their families were picking them up, got gift cards or bought gift cards online,” said Matthew Delia-Lobo, co-owner of Royal Oak Coffee in Middlebury. The GoFundMe cash, he said, was “insanely helpful.”
Royal Oak, which Delia-Lobo opened around a year ago with his wife Alessandra, mainly employs students from Middlebury College. When their employees had to leave campus, the Delia-Lobos were forced to run Royal Oak alone. They also lost revenue they usually make from graduation events and summer programs, both of which were canceled. Royal Oak has two locations, and because of the lack of business, the Delia-Lobos had to temporarily close the one closer to campus.
“Both of us just hustled and worked every single day”
“Both of us just hustled and worked every single day,” Alessandra Delia-Lobo said.
Until students can return to college campuses, local businesses are finding new revenue streams to survive. Lou’s, for example, created a dinner menu targeted toward families, and Mom’s Dream Kitchen has been doing more delivery orders through GrubHub, Waitr, and Uber Eats.
As some colleges prepare to bring students back to campus in the fall, businesses are reimagining what their day-to-day will look like. At the same time, they are grappling with fears surrounding the risks of bringing students from all over the world back to college campuses.
“A big kind of draw to any coffee shop in a college town is ‘I can sit and study or do homework,’ or, you know, sit inside and socialize,” Alessandra Delia-Lobo said. “So I’m a little worried that, you know, that draw won’t be there if we can’t open inside, because I’m worried things won’t improve fast enough.”
Business owners remain cautiously optimistic about their prospects while harboring fears about the dangers of reopening during a pandemic. While many colleges and universities are doing whatever it takes to get students back on campus, from dorms on tennis courts to contact-tracing apps, there is no way to ensure safety until a vaccine is widely available.
“The thought of a couple thousand people from all over the country, all over the world, coming into Hanover where we haven’t had an active case in about four weeks, it’s a little scary,” Berke admitted.


vox--2020-07-13--Democrats have a plan to automatically expand health coverage in a pandemic

As many as 27 million Americans may have lost their employer-sponsored health insurance along with their jobs during the coronavirus pandemic , according to estimates from the Kaiser Family Foundation .
Many of them may be able to maintain health coverage through COBRA or the Obamacare marketplaces or Medicaid .
But some number , likely several million people , could end up becoming uninsured in the middle of the public health emergency .
Democrats have come up with a plan to prevent that from ever happening again .
The Biden-Sanders unity task force has proposed automatically expanding health coverage during @ @ @ @ @ @ @ health crises .
The task force ’ s recommendations , which have not yet been officially adopted by the Biden campaign , would set up automatic support programs .
These provisions would be triggered by increases and decreases in the unemployment rate .
They include an aggressive expansion of Obamacare premium subsidies and a more generous public option plan than previously proposed by the Biden campaign .
“ Their recommendations reflected the fact that financial barriers to getting care are a particular problem during a public health emergency , when the interrelatedness between @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , ” Katherine Hempstead , senior policy adviser at the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation , says .
“ The suggestions seem designed to immediately fill some giant holes in our safety net which currently leaves lots of people without an affordable offer.
” Here are the highlights of the task force ’ s proposal : • Covid-19 testing , vaccines , and treatment would be free to all Americans • A 90-day special enrollment period would be established for people to enroll in coverage through the marketplaces ( the Trump administration has pointedly @ @ @ @ @ @ @ pandemic ) • A no-deductible public insurance plan , administered by the Medicare program , would be established • People with incomes at 200 percent of the federal poverty level or lower would be automatically enrolled in the public option with no premiums owed ; people whose COBRA coverage expires would also be automatically placed in the government plan • Obamacare premium subsidies would be expanded : The subsidy would be pegged to platinum-level coverage ( which covers 90 percent of medical costs ; currently it ’ s linked to silver-level coverage that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ cutoff at 400 percent of the federal poverty level would be eliminated There are a few other highlights , provisions meant to help states maintain their Medicaid programs during a budget crisis and additional federal funding to cover 100 percent of the cost of COBRA coverage for people who are laid off .
The very concept of automatic stabilizers would be a big step .
It ’ s an idea that has started to edge into the mainstream Democratic policy debate — Sens .
Jack Reed and Michael Bennet , along with Rep. @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for expanded unemployment insurance and other federal assistance programs — but getting a place in a presidential platform would be the most significant step yet toward making the policy a reality .
( The Biden campaign said in an email that it looks forward to reviewing the task force ’ s recommendations . )
“ Policymakers have spent a lot of time trying to figure out how to respond to the crisis and reach political consensus , and many have suffered in the process , ” Larry Levitt , executive vice president for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , says .
“ We still don ’ t know how many waves of coronavirus are ahead of us , and this will probably not be our last pandemic.
” However , even if automatic stabilizers receive Biden ’ s imprimatur , they would still likely be politically contentious if a Biden White House and a Democratic Congress tried to pass them into law .
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said earlier this year that she would support the concept , and some House Democrats were pushing for them to be included in the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ effect a wish list for the House majority .
But automatic stabilizers still didn ’ t make the cut .
And given the tenor of the Democratic primary debate over health care , there is no guarantee a Democratic Congress could pass a bill that creates a maximally generous public option that would automatically enroll potentially millions of people .
“ There would be an enormous political fight over an idea like this , even if Democrats sweep the election , ” Levitt , a former federal health official under President Bill Clinton @ @ @ @ @ @ @ VoxCare , a newsletter from Vox on the latest twists and turns in America ’ s health care debate .
Sign up to get VoxCare in your inbox along with more health care stats and news .
Every day at Vox , we aim to answer your most important questions and provide you , and our audience around the world , with information that has the power to save lives .
Our mission has never been more vital than it is in this moment : to empower you through understanding .
Vox ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ever , but our distinctive brand of explanatory journalism takes resources — particularly during a pandemic and an economic downturn .
Your financial contribution will not constitute a donation , but it will enable our staff to continue to offer free articles , videos , and podcasts at the quality and volume that this moment requires .
Please consider making a contribution to Vox today .

As many as 27 million Americans may have lost their employer-sponsored health insurance along with their jobs during the coronavirus pandemic, according to estimates from the Kaiser Family Foundation.
Many of them may be able to maintain health coverage through COBRA or the Obamacare marketplaces or Medicaid. But some number, likely several million people, could end up becoming uninsured in the middle of the public health emergency.
Democrats have come up with a plan to prevent that from ever happening again. The Biden-Sanders unity task force has proposed automatically expanding health coverage during the coronavirus pandemic and all future public health crises.
The task force’s recommendations, which have not yet been officially adopted by the Biden campaign, would set up automatic support programs. These provisions would be triggered by increases and decreases in the unemployment rate. They include an aggressive expansion of Obamacare premium subsidies and a more generous public option plan than previously proposed by the Biden campaign.
“Their recommendations reflected the fact that financial barriers to getting care are a particular problem during a public health emergency, when the interrelatedness between everyone’s health is especially important,” Katherine Hempstead, senior policy adviser at the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation, says. “The suggestions seem designed to immediately fill some giant holes in our safety net which currently leaves lots of people without an affordable offer.”
Here are the highlights of the task force’s proposal:
Covid-19 testing, vaccines, and treatment would be free to all Americans
A 90-day special enrollment period would be established for people to enroll in coverage through the marketplaces (the Trump administration has pointedly declined to open up enrollment during the pandemic)
A no-deductible public insurance plan, administered by the Medicare program, would be established
People with incomes at 200 percent of the federal poverty level or lower would be automatically enrolled in the public option with no premiums owed; people whose COBRA coverage expires would also be automatically placed in the government plan
Obamacare premium subsidies would be expanded: The subsidy would be pegged to platinum-level coverage (which covers 90 percent of medical costs; currently it’s linked to silver-level coverage that covers 70 percent) and the eligibility cutoff at 400 percent of the federal poverty level would be eliminated
There are a few other highlights, provisions meant to help states maintain their Medicaid programs during a budget crisis and additional federal funding to cover 100 percent of the cost of COBRA coverage for people who are laid off.
The very concept of automatic stabilizers would be a big step. It’s an idea that has started to edge into the mainstream Democratic policy debate — Sens. Jack Reed and Michael Bennet, along with Rep. Don Beyer, have proposed instituting triggers for expanded unemployment insurance and other federal assistance programs — but getting a place in a presidential platform would be the most significant step yet toward making the policy a reality. (The Biden campaign said in an email that it looks forward to reviewing the task force’s recommendations.)
“Policymakers have spent a lot of time trying to figure out how to respond to the crisis and reach political consensus, and many have suffered in the process,” Larry Levitt, executive vice president for health policy at the Kaiser Family Foundation, says. “We still don’t know how many waves of coronavirus are ahead of us, and this will probably not be our last pandemic.”
However, even if automatic stabilizers receive Biden’s imprimatur, they would still likely be politically contentious if a Biden White House and a Democratic Congress tried to pass them into law. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said earlier this year that she would support the concept, and some House Democrats were pushing for them to be included in the most recent stimulus bill that was in effect a wish list for the House majority. But automatic stabilizers still didn’t make the cut.
And given the tenor of the Democratic primary debate over health care, there is no guarantee a Democratic Congress could pass a bill that creates a maximally generous public option that would automatically enroll potentially millions of people.
“There would be an enormous political fight over an idea like this, even if Democrats sweep the election,” Levitt, a former federal health official under President Bill Clinton, said.
This story appears in VoxCare, a newsletter from Vox on the latest twists and turns in America’s health care debate. Sign up to get VoxCare in your inbox along with more health care stats and news.


vox--2020-07-13--How California went from a coronavirus success story to a worrying new hot spot

A few months ago , California looked like a success story in the face of the coronavirus pandemic .
As New York state ’ s coronavirus outbreak reached its peak , California ’ s Covid-19 death rate was less than a tenth of New York ’ s .
Now , California ’ s Covid-19 outbreak has gotten so bad that the state is partly closing back down — with Gov .
Gavin Newsom on Monday announcing that the state will halt indoor operations for restaurants , wineries , and movie theaters , among other venues , and close bars entirely @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of a previous action to shut down these kinds of operations in select counties .
California had taken a turn for the worse in recent weeks .
Its daily new coronavirus cases are up more than double compared to the previous month .
The test positivity rate — an indicator of how widespread infection is , as well as whether an area is conducting enough testing — is increasing , too .
Hospitalizations are also up , as hospitals in Los Angeles and other areas have warned they could reach capacity soon .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ the state .
The short of it , experts say , is that much of California let its guard down .
While the state , and the Bay Area in particular , was among the first in the US to embrace a shelter-at-home order , parts of California have since relaxed or outright halted those measures , letting the coronavirus creep in bit by bit .
Meanwhile , precautions against Covid-19 have been inconsistently adopted by the public and businesses — especially as some of the recommended practices , such as wearing a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the same time , the state has seen major outbreaks in nursing homes , in prisons , and among migrant workers — many of whom are deemed “ essential ” and are therefore forced to work — that have driven up coronavirus cases further , simultaneously planting seeds for broader community outbreaks .
It ’ s this mix — of relaxed social distancing policies , inconsistent adoption of precautions , and rise of new Covid-19 hot spots — that have led to California ’ s turn for the worse .
That combination seems @ @ @ @ @ @ @ : Cases are especially rising among younger groups — who are perhaps more likely to take advantage of , say , bars reopening — and in Latin communities , where people are more likely to work for businesses deemed “ essential , ” such as grocery stores or farms .
“ The story of California is the story of why we all have to do more , ” Kirsten Bibbins-Domingo , an epidemiologist at the University of California San Francisco , told me .
“ I don ’ t think we can easily @ @ @ @ @ @ @ or a totally outrageous citizen action or a totally outrageous anything .
It really is that all of these things together matter.
” As the state reopened , she argued , “ We actually should have upped our game at that time , not just be complacent that we had done so well while we were sheltered.
” Some of the overall uptick in cases is likely due to more testing .
All else held equal , more testing will catch more cases .
But testing isn ’ t the whole story ; @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for one , hospitalizations and deaths linked to Covid-19 have risen as well .
The outbreaks aren ’ t universal .
The southern parts of the state , including Los Angeles and Imperial County , have been hit much harder compared with some northern areas , including San Francisco and the broader Bay Area .
“ We ’ re a large and diverse state , ” Bibbins-Domingo said .
“ The variations in how different counties have experienced the epidemic and have adopted important public health measures , like masking , have not @ @ @ @ @ @ @ California isn ’ t as bad as the massive outbreaks currently happening in Arizona , Florida , and Texas .
That ’ s likely a result of the state ’ s slower reopening .
People in a predominantly Democratic state are also more likely to embrace changes that President Donald Trump railed against , like when he suggested that people wear masks to spite him .
Still , the trends are heading in the wrong direction in much of California — complicating the image of a state once praised for its quick , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ underscoring that even states performing well need to maintain vigilance against the virus .
On March 16 , the Bay Area issued the country ’ s first regional shelter-in-place order .
California followed three days later with a statewide order .
It ’ s this lead of several days , compared with other states , that experts said helped California stay largely ahead of the outbreak , at least at first : When cases can double in a span of 24 to 72 hours , taking action even a few days early can @ @ @ @ @ @ @ suggests the lockdowns worked .
One study in Health Affairs concluded : Over time , though , state leaders came under pressure by businesses and workers to open up again and end the economic pain .
As Covid-19 cases remained relatively flat ( although they never truly decreased on a statewide level ) , there was also a growing sentiment that the situation in California was under control .
Some towns , cities , and counties argued that they never suffered a big coronavirus outbreak , so they shouldn ’ t have to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Under all this pressure , Newsom started to relax social distancing measures in May — with a plan to open the state in phases — and delegated more decision-making for reopening down to the local level .
While some places , including the Bay Area , have kept a tighter leash than others , the trend in much of the state was toward relaxed restrictions , with workplaces , restaurants , bars , and other venues opening up again .
“ Our original response was right on .
The politicians really stuck @ @ @ @ @ @ @ I think it ’ s paid off , with thousands of lives saved , ” George Rutherford , an epidemiologist at UCSF , told me .
However , “ there ’ s a playbook for what to do , but not a playbook for how to undo it .
So I think we ’ re kind of all feeling our ways.
” The public seemed to embrace the reopening .
While restaurant data from OpenTable indicates that dine-in seating in California was down by 90 to 100 percent for most of May , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ by 60 to 70 percent — still a huge hit to restaurants , but not nearly as much of one .
The result is that people are increasingly out and about , interacting and infecting each other with the coronavirus .
Friends and families began gathering again , especially as they celebrated Memorial Day and the summer kicked off .
And as they came together — in poorly ventilated homes , restaurants , and bars , in close proximity to people they don ’ t live with , often for hours at a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ more frequently .
Some experts questioned bars and other high-risk indoor spaces reopening in the first place .
“ From a pandemic standpoint , there ’ s probably not anything good happening in a bar , ” Bibbins-Domingo said .
She argued for better priorities in reopening : “ We shouldn ’ t have overreacted to some of the beaches and going outside , and we probably should have been much clearer on the bars.
” Changes in policy can ’ t fully explain every single outbreak .
Some people would break the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ as migrant agricultural workers deemed “ essential , ” were largely exempted from the start .
There are factors outside the control of these policies , such as overcrowded housing and tech workers in the Bay Area being able to work from home to social distance while farmers in southern parts of the state can ’ t .
The outbreaks in some settings , such as nursing homes and prisons , also aren ’ t as directly tied to reopenings .
Prisons are largely cut off from the community , and visitation in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the pandemic .
The outbreak at a prison in Northern California , San Quentin , seemed to be the result of the transfer of inmates from another prison where infections were rising .
But social distancing restrictions likely played some role even in these examples , given that the virus had to get into these facilities somehow .
Nursing home employees , prison guards , and migrant workers , after all , go home and perhaps to bars or restaurants at the end of the workday .
In the end , greater community @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Local and state officials have also pinned some of the blame on Black Lives Matter protests .
But the research and data so far suggest the demonstrations didn ’ t lead to a significant increase in Covid-19 cases , thanks to protests mostly taking place outside and participants embracing steps , such as wearing masks , that mitigate the risk of transmission .
The decline of social distancing and the rise in cases also aligns with what researchers have seen in past disease outbreaks .
Several studies of the 1918 flu pandemic found @ @ @ @ @ @ @ enforce social distancing saved lives in those areas .
But this research also shows the consequences of pulling back restrictions too early : A 2007 study in JAMA found that when St. Louis — widely praised for its response to the 1918 pandemic — eased its school closures , bans on public gatherings , and other restrictions , it saw a rise in deaths .
Here ’ s how that looks in chart form , with the dotted line representing excess flu deaths and the black and gray bars showing when social distancing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ came after those measures were lifted , and the death rate fell only after they were reinstated .
This did not just happen in St. Louis .
Analyzing data from 43 cities , the JAMA study found this pattern repeatedly across the country .
Howard Markel , a co-author of the study and the director of the University of Michigan ’ s Center for the History of Medicine , described the results as a bunch of “ double-humped epi curves ” — officials instituted social distancing measures , saw flu cases fall , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ flu cases rise again .
California has seen that in real time : Social distancing worked at first .
But as it ’ s relaxed social distancing , it ’ s seen cases quickly rise .
Some people aren ’ t wearing masks or taking other precautions As California reopened , experts said the spread of Covid-19 was compounded by some people who failed or refused to follow recommended precautions against the virus .
There was particular resistance to wearing masks in more conservative areas of California , especially in the southern parts @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s chief health officer resigned due to public resistance against a mask-wearing order .
Sheriffs in Orange , Riverside , Fresno , and Sacramento counties said they wouldn ’ t enforce Newsom ’ s June order requiring masks in public and high-risk areas .
Anecdotally , experts and others in the state told me that mask-wearing seems to be more common in the Bay Area than in the southern parts of California .
The evidence increasingly supports the use of masks to combat Covid-19 .
Several recent studies found that masks alone reduce @ @ @ @ @ @ @ early research suggests — that masks played a significant role in containing outbreaks in several Asian countries where their use is widespread , like South Korea and Japan .
The resistance to masks in California , as well as nationwide , is at least partially political .
As recommendations and requirements for masks have increased , some conservatives have suggested wearing a mask is emblematic of an overreaction to the coronavirus pandemic that has eroded civil liberties .
President Trump , for one , has by and large refused to wear a mask @ @ @ @ @ @ @ wear masks to spite him and suggesting , contrary to the evidence , that masks do more harm than good .
While some Republicans are breaking from Trump on this issue , his comments and actions have helped politicize mask-wearing .
There ’ s also general fatigue , with people growing more and more tired of social distancing as the pandemic continues .
Surveys from Gallup found that just 39 percent of people were “ always ” social distancing in late June , compared with 65 percent in early April ; the number @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ rarely , ” or “ never ” practice social distancing increased from 7 to 27 percent in the same time frame .
Some experts argue public outreach has failed with regard to encouraging social distancing and mask-wearing , arguing officials could do a much better job not only at communicating the right steps but also at persuading the public to adopt them .
They could also do more to reach marginalized communities — in California , by tailoring messages and support to Latin workers in particular .
Nationwide , education is “ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , ” Krutika Kuppalli , an infectious disease specialist and a fellow in the Emerging Leaders in Biosecurity Initiative at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security , told me .
Kuppalli pointed to masks as one example where there ’ s clearly more work to be done .
“ Shaming people is not going to make them wear masks , ” she explained .
“ It ’ s about trying to get people to understand that it ’ s for the greater good of the community.
” Beyond that , enforcement of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ consistent — a problem Newsom acknowledged when he said the state plans to step up enforcement .
The result of all of this is seen in not only the actions of individuals but also those of businesses .
Los Angeles officials in late June found 33 percent of local restaurants and 49 percent of bars weren ’ t following social distancing protocols , and employees at 44 percent of restaurants and 54 percent of bars weren ’ t wearing masks or face shields , according to the Los Angeles Times .
The state @ @ @ @ @ @ @ before it gets much worse California isn ’ t as bad as several other hot spots are in terms of coronavirus cases .
Arizona and Florida have more than double the number of cases per day per person , and Texas has nearly 50 percent more .
But the goal , experts argue , is to start cracking down before things get as bad as Arizona or Florida .
Because the lag between infection and the onset of symptoms can be as long as two weeks , officials are typically acting too late @ @ @ @ @ @ @ or hospitalizations get reported .
In fact , that ’ s one reason California was initially praised several months ago : The state and Bay Area took the virus seriously before it became a problem on the scale of what New York was seeing at the time .
“ One of the things I ’ ve learned in any outbreak is that if it seems you overreacted , you ’ ve done a good job , ” Kuppalli said .
What looks like overreaction , she added , means that “ we prevented @ @ @ @ @ @ @ don ’ t want to wait until things are a catastrophe and then react , because that ’ s too late.
” In some sense , then , Newsom ’ s latest moves are too late — as cases , hospitalizations , and deaths have already crept up for weeks .
Now it ’ s an open question if the state can avoid another stay-at-home order .
If things were to get to a certain level — where hospitals reach capacity and the death toll is exponentially rising — a full lockdown could @ @ @ @ @ @ @ outbreak under control again .
To not get to that point , experts have called for more targeted measures , from aggressive testing , contact tracing , and isolating to closing down high-risk areas , particularly indoor venues that are often packed and poorly ventilated .
“ We don ’ t want to get to the point where we just tell everyone to stay home if there are more targeted measures as a starting point , ” Cyrus Shahpar , director at Resolve to Save Lives , told me .
So far , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is embracing — shutting down bars , movie theaters , and other indoor gatherings , and encouraging outdoor options for dining .
Only in extreme cases , like with Imperial County , has the state pushed more drastic action .
Some of this responsibility falls on the public , too .
When people go out , experts recommend wearing a mask , prioritizing outdoor venues over indoor spaces , keeping 6 feet from each other , not touching your face , and washing your hands .
How well a community as a whole @ @ @ @ @ @ @ get .
“ We have to be totally serious about masks , ” Rutherford said .
“ No more screwing around.
” California may have already lost its reputation as being quick to act in the face of the coronavirus .
But officials and experts are hoping it still has time to avoid becoming a huge epicenter for Covid-19 — as long as its leaders and the public react accordingly to the rise in cases and deaths .
Every day at Vox , we aim to answer your most important questions and provide @ @ @ @ @ @ @ world , with information that has the power to save lives .
Our mission has never been more vital than it is in this moment : to empower you through understanding .
Vox ’ s work is reaching more people than ever , but our distinctive brand of explanatory journalism takes resources — particularly during a pandemic and an economic downturn .
Your financial contribution will not constitute a donation , but it will enable our staff to continue to offer free articles , videos , and podcasts at the quality and volume @ @ @ @ @ @ @ making a contribution to Vox today .

A few months ago, California looked like a success story in the face of the coronavirus pandemic. As New York state’s coronavirus outbreak reached its peak, California’s Covid-19 death rate was less than a tenth of New York’s.
Now, California’s Covid-19 outbreak has gotten so bad that the state is partly closing back down — with Gov. Gavin Newsom on Monday announcing that the state will halt indoor operations for restaurants, wineries, and movie theaters, among other venues, and close bars entirely. It’s an aggressive expansion of a previous action to shut down these kinds of operations in select counties.
California had taken a turn for the worse in recent weeks. Its daily new coronavirus cases are up more than double compared to the previous month. The test positivity rate — an indicator of how widespread infection is, as well as whether an area is conducting enough testing — is increasing, too. Hospitalizations are also up, as hospitals in Los Angeles and other areas have warned they could reach capacity soon. And deaths have started to climb in the state.
So what happened?
The short of it, experts say, is that much of California let its guard down. While the state, and the Bay Area in particular, was among the first in the US to embrace a shelter-at-home order, parts of California have since relaxed or outright halted those measures, letting the coronavirus creep in bit by bit. Meanwhile, precautions against Covid-19 have been inconsistently adopted by the public and businesses — especially as some of the recommended practices, such as wearing a mask, have become politicized.
At the same time, the state has seen major outbreaks in nursing homes, in prisons, and among migrant workers — many of whom are deemed “essential” and are therefore forced to work — that have driven up coronavirus cases further, simultaneously planting seeds for broader community outbreaks.
It’s this mix — of relaxed social distancing policies, inconsistent adoption of precautions, and rise of new Covid-19 hot spots — that have led to California’s turn for the worse. That combination seems to have hit some demographics particularly hard: Cases are especially rising among younger groups — who are perhaps more likely to take advantage of, say, bars reopening — and in Latin communities, where people are more likely to work for businesses deemed “essential,” such as grocery stores or farms.
“The story of California is the story of why we all have to do more,” Kirsten Bibbins-Domingo, an epidemiologist at the University of California San Francisco, told me. “I don’t think we can easily point to a totally outrageous government policy or a totally outrageous citizen action or a totally outrageous anything. It really is that all of these things together matter.” As the state reopened, she argued, “We actually should have upped our game at that time, not just be complacent that we had done so well while we were sheltered.”
Some of the overall uptick in cases is likely due to more testing. All else held equal, more testing will catch more cases. But testing isn’t the whole story; it can’t explain why, for one, hospitalizations and deaths linked to Covid-19 have risen as well.
The outbreaks aren’t universal. The southern parts of the state, including Los Angeles and Imperial County, have been hit much harder compared with some northern areas, including San Francisco and the broader Bay Area.
“We’re a large and diverse state,” Bibbins-Domingo said. “The variations in how different counties have experienced the epidemic and have adopted important public health measures, like masking, have not been helpful.”
The overall trend in California isn’t as bad as the massive outbreaks currently happening in Arizona, Florida, and Texas. That’s likely a result of the state’s slower reopening. People in a predominantly Democratic state are also more likely to embrace changes that President Donald Trump railed against, like when he suggested that people wear masks to spite him.
Still, the trends are heading in the wrong direction in much of California — complicating the image of a state once praised for its quick, decisive action against Covid-19 outbreaks, and underscoring that even states performing well need to maintain vigilance against the virus.
Reopening, predictably, led to more coronavirus cases
On March 16, the Bay Area issued the country’s first regional shelter-in-place order. California followed three days later with a statewide order. It’s this lead of several days, compared with other states, that experts said helped California stay largely ahead of the outbreak, at least at first: When cases can double in a span of 24 to 72 hours, taking action even a few days early can play a huge role.
The research suggests the lockdowns worked. One study in Health Affairs concluded:
Adoption of government-imposed social distancing measures reduced the daily growth rate by 5.4 percentage points after 1–5 days, 6.8 after 6–10 days, 8.2 after 11–15 days, and 9.1 after 16–20 days. Holding the amount of voluntary social distancing constant, these results imply 10 times greater spread by April 27 without SIPOs (10 million cases) and more than 35 times greater spread without any of the four measures (35 million).
Over time, though, state leaders came under pressure by businesses and workers to open up again and end the economic pain. As Covid-19 cases remained relatively flat (although they never truly decreased on a statewide level), there was also a growing sentiment that the situation in California was under control. Some towns, cities, and counties argued that they never suffered a big coronavirus outbreak, so they shouldn’t have to follow the state’s strict rules.
Under all this pressure, Newsom started to relax social distancing measures in May — with a plan to open the state in phases — and delegated more decision-making for reopening down to the local level. While some places, including the Bay Area, have kept a tighter leash than others, the trend in much of the state was toward relaxed restrictions, with workplaces, restaurants, bars, and other venues opening up again.
“Our original response was right on. The politicians really stuck their necks out on it. And I think it’s paid off, with thousands of lives saved,” George Rutherford, an epidemiologist at UCSF, told me. However, “there’s a playbook for what to do, but not a playbook for how to undo it. So I think we’re kind of all feeling our ways.”
The public seemed to embrace the reopening. While restaurant data from OpenTable indicates that dine-in seating in California was down by 90 to 100 percent for most of May, for much of June it was down by 60 to 70 percent — still a huge hit to restaurants, but not nearly as much of one.
The result is that people are increasingly out and about, interacting and infecting each other with the coronavirus. Friends and families began gathering again, especially as they celebrated Memorial Day and the summer kicked off. And as they came together — in poorly ventilated homes, restaurants, and bars, in close proximity to people they don’t live with, often for hours at a time — people spread the virus much more frequently.
Some experts questioned bars and other high-risk indoor spaces reopening in the first place. “From a pandemic standpoint, there’s probably not anything good happening in a bar,” Bibbins-Domingo said. She argued for better priorities in reopening: “We shouldn’t have overreacted to some of the beaches and going outside, and we probably should have been much clearer on the bars.”
Changes in policy can’t fully explain every single outbreak. Some people would break the rules anyway, and others, such as migrant agricultural workers deemed “essential,” were largely exempted from the start. There are factors outside the control of these policies, such as overcrowded housing and tech workers in the Bay Area being able to work from home to social distance while farmers in southern parts of the state can’t.
The outbreaks in some settings, such as nursing homes and prisons, also aren’t as directly tied to reopenings. Prisons are largely cut off from the community, and visitation in nursing homes has been heavily curtailed by the pandemic. The outbreak at a prison in Northern California, San Quentin, seemed to be the result of the transfer of inmates from another prison where infections were rising.
But social distancing restrictions likely played some role even in these examples, given that the virus had to get into these facilities somehow. Nursing home employees, prison guards, and migrant workers, after all, go home and perhaps to bars or restaurants at the end of the workday. In the end, greater community transmission affects everyone in a community.
Local and state officials have also pinned some of the blame on Black Lives Matter protests. But the research and data so far suggest the demonstrations didn’t lead to a significant increase in Covid-19 cases, thanks to protests mostly taking place outside and participants embracing steps, such as wearing masks, that mitigate the risk of transmission.
The decline of social distancing and the rise in cases also aligns with what researchers have seen in past disease outbreaks. Several studies of the 1918 flu pandemic found that quicker and more aggressive steps to enforce social distancing saved lives in those areas. But this research also shows the consequences of pulling back restrictions too early: A 2007 study in JAMA found that when St. Louis — widely praised for its response to the 1918 pandemic — eased its school closures, bans on public gatherings, and other restrictions, it saw a rise in deaths.
Here’s how that looks in chart form, with the dotted line representing excess flu deaths and the black and gray bars showing when social distancing measures were in place. The peak came after those measures were lifted, and the death rate fell only after they were reinstated.
This did not just happen in St. Louis. Analyzing data from 43 cities, the JAMA study found this pattern repeatedly across the country. Howard Markel, a co-author of the study and the director of the University of Michigan’s Center for the History of Medicine, described the results as a bunch of “double-humped epi curves” — officials instituted social distancing measures, saw flu cases fall, then pulled back the measures and saw flu cases rise again.
California has seen that in real time: Social distancing worked at first. But as it’s relaxed social distancing, it’s seen cases quickly rise.
Some people aren’t wearing masks or taking other precautions
As California reopened, experts said the spread of Covid-19 was compounded by some people who failed or refused to follow recommended precautions against the virus.
There was particular resistance to wearing masks in more conservative areas of California, especially in the southern parts of the state. Orange County’s chief health officer resigned due to public resistance against a mask-wearing order. Sheriffs in Orange, Riverside, Fresno, and Sacramento counties said they wouldn’t enforce Newsom’s June order requiring masks in public and high-risk areas. Anecdotally, experts and others in the state told me that mask-wearing seems to be more common in the Bay Area than in the southern parts of California.
The evidence increasingly supports the use of masks to combat Covid-19. Several recent studies found that masks alone reduce transmission. Some experts hypothesize — and early research suggests — that masks played a significant role in containing outbreaks in several Asian countries where their use is widespread, like South Korea and Japan.
The resistance to masks in California, as well as nationwide, is at least partially political. As recommendations and requirements for masks have increased, some conservatives have suggested wearing a mask is emblematic of an overreaction to the coronavirus pandemic that has eroded civil liberties. President Trump, for one, has by and large refused to wear a mask in public, even saying that people wear masks to spite him and suggesting, contrary to the evidence, that masks do more harm than good. While some Republicans are breaking from Trump on this issue, his comments and actions have helped politicize mask-wearing.
There’s also general fatigue, with people growing more and more tired of social distancing as the pandemic continues. Surveys from Gallup found that just 39 percent of people were “always” social distancing in late June, compared with 65 percent in early April; the number of people who “sometimes,” “rarely,” or “never” practice social distancing increased from 7 to 27 percent in the same time frame.
Some experts argue public outreach has failed with regard to encouraging social distancing and mask-wearing, arguing officials could do a much better job not only at communicating the right steps but also at persuading the public to adopt them. They could also do more to reach marginalized communities — in California, by tailoring messages and support to Latin workers in particular.
Nationwide, education is “where we really failed in this outbreak,” Krutika Kuppalli, an infectious disease specialist and a fellow in the Emerging Leaders in Biosecurity Initiative at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security, told me. Kuppalli pointed to masks as one example where there’s clearly more work to be done. “Shaming people is not going to make them wear masks,” she explained. “It’s about trying to get people to understand that it’s for the greater good of the community.”
Beyond that, enforcement of social distancing requirements hasn’t been consistent — a problem Newsom acknowledged when he said the state plans to step up enforcement.
The result of all of this is seen in not only the actions of individuals but also those of businesses. Los Angeles officials in late June found 33 percent of local restaurants and 49 percent of bars weren’t following social distancing protocols, and employees at 44 percent of restaurants and 54 percent of bars weren’t wearing masks or face shields, according to the Los Angeles Times.
The state has to pull back reopening now, before it gets much worse
California isn’t as bad as several other hot spots are in terms of coronavirus cases. Arizona and Florida have more than double the number of cases per day per person, and Texas has nearly 50 percent more.
But the goal, experts argue, is to start cracking down before things get as bad as Arizona or Florida. Because the lag between infection and the onset of symptoms can be as long as two weeks, officials are typically acting too late if they react only once more cases or hospitalizations get reported. In fact, that’s one reason California was initially praised several months ago: The state and Bay Area took the virus seriously before it became a problem on the scale of what New York was seeing at the time.
“One of the things I’ve learned in any outbreak is that if it seems you overreacted, you’ve done a good job,” Kuppalli said. What looks like overreaction, she added, means that “we prevented things from becoming a catastrophe. We don’t want to wait until things are a catastrophe and then react, because that’s too late.”
In some sense, then, Newsom’s latest moves are too late — as cases, hospitalizations, and deaths have already crept up for weeks.
Now it’s an open question if the state can avoid another stay-at-home order. If things were to get to a certain level — where hospitals reach capacity and the death toll is exponentially rising — a full lockdown could be the only option to get the outbreak under control again. To not get to that point, experts have called for more targeted measures, from aggressive testing, contact tracing, and isolating to closing down high-risk areas, particularly indoor venues that are often packed and poorly ventilated.
“We don’t want to get to the point where we just tell everyone to stay home if there are more targeted measures as a starting point,” Cyrus Shahpar, director at Resolve to Save Lives, told me.
So far, the more targeted approach is what Newsom is embracing — shutting down bars, movie theaters, and other indoor gatherings, and encouraging outdoor options for dining. Only in extreme cases, like with Imperial County, has the state pushed more drastic action.
Some of this responsibility falls on the public, too. When people go out, experts recommend wearing a mask, prioritizing outdoor venues over indoor spaces, keeping 6 feet from each other, not touching your face, and washing your hands. How well a community as a whole does that can dictate how bad things get.
“We have to be totally serious about masks,” Rutherford said. “No more screwing around.”
California may have already lost its reputation as being quick to act in the face of the coronavirus. But officials and experts are hoping it still has time to avoid becoming a huge epicenter for Covid-19 — as long as its leaders and the public react accordingly to the rise in cases and deaths.