vox--2020-05-26--The voters Joe Biden needs to win the election, explained

Joe Biden ’ s national polling lead against President Donald Trump has been relatively stable for months .
But the looming question for Biden is whether he can get the right combination of voters to turn out for him on Election Day — and in the right places .
Barack Obama beat his Republican challengers in 2008 and 2012 by driving historic turnout among African American voters and winning working-class white voters in Midwestern Rust Belt states .
Replicating that exact playbook may not be realistic ; Trump ’ s hold on white working-class voters can ’ t be underestimated @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for a Biden victory , ” said election analyst Dave Wasserman of the nonpartisan Cook Political Report .
“ After that , what can put him over the top ?
Is it Wisconsin , Arizona , or Florida ?
” The Biden campaign strategy will take a series of carefully executed plays .
Cut into Trump ’ s margins with rural and exurban voters in states from the Upper Midwest to Florida .
Make sure African American , Latino , and Asian American turnout is strong in Sun Belt and Rust Belt states @ @ @ @ @ @ @ voters where Democrats have been racking up big wins lately : suburban voters ( especially women ) who may have voted for Mitt Romney in 2012 but are wary of Trump .
And — maybe the biggest play of all — see if the campaign can win or at least significantly cut into the president ’ s margins with older voters , a traditionally more conservative and reliable bloc that suddenly seems to be turning away from the president .
A recent Fox News poll found voters aged 65 and older said they @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
A recent Quinnipiac University poll also showed Biden 22 points ahead with women 65 and older ( and Trump leading men in the same age group ) .
These polls could certainly change , but they ’ re worrying sign for Trump , who won older voters by 7 points in 2016 .
“ Even if Joe Biden cuts the margin of what Trump won [ with older voters ] , because they ’ re the largest single age group , it is a huge , huge game changer , ” said @ @ @ @ @ @ @ It ’ s going to be tough to pull off .
Trump has an incumbent advantage and vast financial resources .
And Democrats could risk stretching themselves thin ; as much as there are new opportunities , there are also a lot of areas where they need to play defense .
The former vice president ’ s strength with the African American community may not be enough to garner Obama ’ s levels of support from black voters .
The Trump campaign ’ s attempts to woo black voters certainly haven ’ t @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ re worried black voters in Midwestern states who stayed home in 2016 may do the same in 2020 .
However he gets there , Biden needs to find the right combination of voters in the right states .
And with the coronavirus and a tanking economy upending the political landscape , he may have more opportunities to draw a distinction between himself and Trump .
“ At this point , we see very few voters as off the table , ” said Becca Siegel , the Biden campaign ’ s chief analytics @ @ @ @ @ @ @ coalition , Joe Biden wants to build his own .
Biden needs to win with a combination of white and black voters in the Rust Belt Biden ’ s national polling lead of 5.5 points over Trump , according to RealClearPolitics , certainly doesn ’ t mean the election is a lock for him .
As Hillary Clinton saw in 2016 , where you win is more important than how many people you win nationally ; if you don ’ t have the Electoral College , you don ’ t have the White @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s most current Electoral College forecast projects Democrats currently have a slight advantage with 232 electoral votes in states that are either solid , likely , or lean blue , compared to 204 electoral votes in red states for Republicans .
Keep in mind these ratings could certainly fluctuate .
There are just six states that Cook currently rates as true toss-ups ( plus Nebraska ’ s 2nd Congressional District ; Nebraska is one of two states that assigns Electoral College votes to individual House districts ) .
Trump won all these toss-up @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , Wisconsin , Arizona , Florida , and North Carolina .
The Midwestern trifecta of Michigan , Pennsylvania , and Wisconsin is an area where Democrats historically had solidly won presidential elections from the early 1990s , until Trump came along .
Of the three , election forecasters believe Michigan and Pennsylvania are likelier to go blue in 2020 than Wisconsin .
The RealClearPolitics average of head-to-head state polls shows Biden up 6.5 percent in Pennsylvania , 5.5 percent in Michigan , and a smaller 2.7 percent lead in Wisconsin .
( In @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Biden has a 4 percent lead in Arizona , a 3.3 percent lead in Florida , and Trump has a 1 percent lead in North Carolina . )
Biden winning the three Rust Belt states will take a combination of strong African American turnout in cities like Philadelphia and Detroit , suburban voters , and working-class white voters where Democrats can get them .
While Biden is strong with African Americans overall , Trump ’ s campaign is doing outreach that could cut into that lead .
“ We should take the Trump @ @ @ @ @ @ @ men seriously , ” said Addisu Demissie , former campaign manager for Sen. Cory Booker ’ s presidential run .
“ When you ’ re talking about margins in the tens of thousands in some of these states like Pennsylvania , Michigan , and Florida , that could be the difference .
On the margins , any constituency matters.
” Polls so far show Trump still has a pretty strong hold on working-class white men nationwide , which he won by nearly 50 points in 2017 .
This is the core of Trump @ @ @ @ @ @ @ largely remained loyal .
Still , there is the potential for some movement among white non-college-educated women , who Trump carried by 27 points in 2016 .
“ There seems to be a bit more movement , you can peel a few more of them off , ” said Monmouth University Polling Director Patrick Murray , adding that Biden is “ certainly going to lose men in that group by a huge margin.
” Winning back working-class areas with Democratic roots and a heavy union presence in 2020 “ isn ’ t rocket @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , the Pennsylvania Democrat whose long-shot win in a 2018 House special election in western Pennsylvania was a sign of life for the party there .
“ You can win a lot of votes in these areas , but you ’ ve got to fight for them.
” “ We should take the Trump efforts with black men and younger black men seriously ” When Lamb was first running in the special election , he met plenty of voters who felt left behind by the Democratic Party .
“ They just kind of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ” Lamb told Vox .
Although Clinton had poured resources into Pennsylvania , voters in rural areas outside of Pittsburgh where steel and coal-mining jobs were disappearing didn ’ t feel it .
Many voted for Trump .
This year , Lamb said his constituents aren ’ t interested in hearing Democrats bash Trump as much as they are in issues that hit their pocketbooks , like the cost of prescription drugs , support for Medicare and Social Security , and well-paying jobs in Pennsylvania ’ s energy sector .
Ties to organized @ @ @ @ @ @ @ strong ; less so in Wisconsin after state Republicans there passed a bill to gut unions .
“ One of my messages to the Biden campaign has been and will be , it ’ s important to talk about who we are , what we are for , without mentioning the president , ” Lamb said .
“ People want to know , ‘ what are you going to do for me.
’ ” Rep. Haley Stevens , a moderate Democrat elected to Michigan ’ s heavily suburban 11th Congressional District outside Detroit @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are tired of the constant partisan bickering in Washington , DC .
It also happens the district had the 10th highest turnout in 2018 , nationwide .
It could see even greater turnout this year .
“ We have a lot of people very eager to see the drama stop and see DC get to work for them , ” Stevens said .
Biden needs to win over retirees to win Florida , the retiree state The southern coastal swing state is key to any candidate ’ s victory on election night .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ Electoral College win in 2016 , when the Republican candidate over-performed Mitt Romney in white and rural exurban counties .
Clinton did well in Miami and Fort Lauderdale , but Trump ’ s performance in the corridor along Interstate 4 , around Tampa and St. Petersburg , was too much for Democrats to overcome .
They don ’ t want to make the same mistake twice .
Biden is currently leading Florida by 3.3 percent , according to RealClearPolitics .
That ’ s causing some politicos who had written Florida off as a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
If history is any indicator , the election there could be very tight ; the last two presidential elections in the state were decided by less than a point .
“ I ’ ve never understood why people didn ’ t think Florida was going to be in play , ” said Florida Democratic strategist Steve Schale , Obama ’ s Florida state director in 2008 .
Like Arizona , Florida boasts a sizable Latino population , but it ’ s largely made up of Cubans and Puerto Ricans rather than Mexican-Americans @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is home to a contingent of people who fled socialist governments in Cuba and Venezuela , its Latino population tends to be more right-leaning .
The GOP has found success with this group in the past .
Biden also bested Sanders with Florida Latinos in the 2020 primary .
“ What ’ s fascinating there is it ’ s a population of people who for the most part came to the US with status , ” said Schale , explaining why immigration issues aren ’ t as salient in Florida as they are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ When it comes to November , Democrats are looking for opportunities along the I-4 corridor , and the suburbs and exurban communities between Orlando and Tampa are a prime target for them .
Older voters account for another big reason why Florida is back on the table for Democrats in 2020 .
Florida is where many Americans go to retire , including large shares of retirees from places like Michigan , Wisconsin , and Pennsylvania .
“ The swing voters in Florida , they tend to be the retired versions of people who @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Schale said .
“ [ If ] the Democrats do well in Florida , they ’ re also going to do well in the upper Midwest .
And if they do well in the upper Midwest , they ’ re also going to do well in Florida.
” Older voters will be key in Florida , but they ’ re also a key contingent in really any Electoral College state , whether it be in the Rust Belt or Arizona .
As FiveThirtyEight ’ s Geoffrey Skelley wrote , Trump ’ s average @ @ @ @ @ @ @ this year is underperforming his 2016 margins .
Among voters 55 and older , Trump ’ s current margin is 10 points behind where it was in 2016 .
And among voters 65 and older , the president ’ s margin is about 14 points behind where it was in 2016 .
Biden isn ’ t necessarily winning these voters outright in polls , but he ’ s catching up to Trump ’ s numbers .
Biden ’ s team considers even cutting into Trump ’ s margins with older voters a win @ @ @ @ @ @ @ cautious about what the margin is , ” Anzalone said .
“ I think we ’ ll do better , I ’ m not sure we ’ ll win them , but even if we cut the margin in half , it ’ s significant electoral impact.
” To win Florida , Biden needs plenty of retirees in his corner .
But he also can ’ t ignore younger generations in that state , or any other .
Polls around the country show Biden has some work to do with younger voters .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ ; they also tend to turn out less reliably than older voters .
The former vice president is doing outreach ; he has already assembled policy-focused task forces with his former competitor Sen. Bernie Sanders , a popular figure among the younger generation .
But more work will need to be done to make up an enthusiasm gap .
“ In a close and tight election , these are the difference makers , these are the people who could swing this election , ” said Sanders ’ s former 2020 campaign Faiz Shakir @ @ @ @ @ @ @ whites could put Biden over the top in Arizona With a 4 percent lead on the RealClearPolitics state polling average , Biden ’ s campaign seems particularly bullish on Arizona .
This southwestern state is a traditionally Republican stronghold that ’ s trending purple , owing to a combination of a growing Latino vote and white , college-educated suburban voters .
“ We believe there will be battleground states that have never been battleground states before — Arizona on the top of the list , ” Biden campaign manager Jen O ’ Malley @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are not only ahead [ in Arizona ] , but we have a strong opportunity there to build our pathway to victory.
” Arizona voted for Trump in 2016 , but pollsters see substantial demographic changes contributing to Democrats ’ recent success there .
Democratic US Sen. Kyrsten Sinema was elected in 2018 , as was a Democratic secretary of state .
And this year ’ s Arizona Senate race is one of the most competitive in the country .
“ The reason states are moving bluer in the Southwest is we ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Gallego ( D-AZ ) told Vox .
“ What happened there is a combination of moderate white Anglos joining with progressive Latinos to win and put progressive Democrats in office.
” A number of Arizona Latinos are progressive , and the Democratic primary between Biden and Sanders was competitive for that reason .
Biden ’ s team plans to do significant outreach there , and Gallego said the work of contacting Latino voters needs to happen as soon as possible .
Out of all the Electoral College toss-ups , North Carolina is the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Trump slightly overperformed Mitt Romney in the red-leaning swing state in 2016 , but its cities and suburbs are a growing worry for Republicans .
Trump ’ s razor-thin 1 point lead in North Carolina ’ s polling average reflects the state ’ s complicated political dynamics .
In 2008 , Obama was the first Democratic presidential candidate to win the state since 1976 , and he did it by the slimmest of margins .
But even though Republicans have consistently won presidential elections in the state , the last three elections @ @ @ @ @ @ @ points at the most .
Many voters there are moderate , and Democrats successfully took the governor ’ s seat in 2016 , a bright spot in an otherwise dismal election for them .
The reason North Carolina is so competitive this year , both with the presidential contest and the Senate race , is its growing suburbs .
People are moving to North Carolina cities and their suburbs ; in 2017 and 2018 , a full 63 percent of the state ’ s population growth happened in the Charlotte , Raleigh , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ all considered blue spots and a potential opportunity for Democrats .
As Cook ’ s Amy Walter noted in a recent analysis , Super Tuesday election results in the state showed that the suburbs around cities saw markedly increased Democratic turnout ; 61 percent of the vote for Democrats compared to 38 percent for Republicans ( keep in mind , the Republican primary this time was less competitive with Trump as the incumbent ) .
In 2016 , Walter wrote , the Republican share of the votes in these suburbs was 54 percent @ @ @ @ @ @ @ In addition to doing better in the North Carolina suburbs , Democrats will also have to cut down Trump ’ s margins in more rural areas and exurban communities if they have any hope of a good night there .
Obama won in 2008 in part because of enthusiastic black voter turnout , which also helped lift Democrat Kay Hagan to the Senate .
Biden likely won ’ t be able to get the same levels of black support in North Carolina as the first black president did .
His best hope there @ @ @ @ @ @ @ surprising level of white suburban support , and cutting into Trump ’ s rural and exurban voters .
“ This is very much about narrowing the margins from 2016 , ” said Anzalone .
“ I think that what Biden has going for him in terms of his connection with voters , he has the ability to narrow the margins with rural voters , with exurban voters.
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Joe Biden’s national polling lead against President Donald Trump has been relatively stable for months. But the looming question for Biden is whether he can get the right combination of voters to turn out for him on Election Day — and in the right places.
Barack Obama beat his Republican challengers in 2008 and 2012 by driving historic turnout among African American voters and winning working-class white voters in Midwestern Rust Belt states. Replicating that exact playbook may not be realistic; Trump’s hold on white working-class voters can’t be underestimated.
“Michigan and Pennsylvania are prerequisites for a Biden victory,” said election analyst Dave Wasserman of the nonpartisan Cook Political Report. “After that, what can put him over the top? Is it Wisconsin, Arizona, or Florida?”
The Biden campaign strategy will take a series of carefully executed plays. Cut into Trump’s margins with rural and exurban voters in states from the Upper Midwest to Florida. Make sure African American, Latino, and Asian American turnout is strong in Sun Belt and Rust Belt states alike. Appeal to a subset of voters where Democrats have been racking up big wins lately: suburban voters (especially women) who may have voted for Mitt Romney in 2012 but are wary of Trump.
And — maybe the biggest play of all — see if the campaign can win or at least significantly cut into the president’s margins with older voters, a traditionally more conservative and reliable bloc that suddenly seems to be turning away from the president. A recent Fox News poll found voters aged 65 and older said they preferred Biden to Trump by 17 points. A recent Quinnipiac University poll also showed Biden 22 points ahead with women 65 and older (and Trump leading men in the same age group). These polls could certainly change, but they’re worrying sign for Trump, who won older voters by 7 points in 2016.
“Even if Joe Biden cuts the margin of what Trump won [with older voters], because they’re the largest single age group, it is a huge, huge game changer,” said Biden adviser and pollster John Anzalone.
It’s going to be tough to pull off. Trump has an incumbent advantage and vast financial resources. And Democrats could risk stretching themselves thin; as much as there are new opportunities, there are also a lot of areas where they need to play defense. The former vice president’s strength with the African American community may not be enough to garner Obama’s levels of support from black voters. The Trump campaign’s attempts to woo black voters certainly haven’t escaped Democrats’ attention, and they’re worried black voters in Midwestern states who stayed home in 2016 may do the same in 2020.
However he gets there, Biden needs to find the right combination of voters in the right states. And with the coronavirus and a tanking economy upending the political landscape, he may have more opportunities to draw a distinction between himself and Trump.
“At this point, we see very few voters as off the table,” said Becca Siegel, the Biden campaign’s chief analytics adviser.
Rather than replicate the Obama coalition, Joe Biden wants to build his own.
Biden needs to win with a combination of white and black voters in the Rust Belt
Biden’s national polling lead of 5.5 points over Trump, according to RealClearPolitics, certainly doesn’t mean the election is a lock for him. As Hillary Clinton saw in 2016, where you win is more important than how many people you win nationally; if you don’t have the Electoral College, you don’t have the White House.
The Cook Political Report’s most current Electoral College forecast projects Democrats currently have a slight advantage with 232 electoral votes in states that are either solid, likely, or lean blue, compared to 204 electoral votes in red states for Republicans. Keep in mind these ratings could certainly fluctuate. There are just six states that Cook currently rates as true toss-ups (plus Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District; Nebraska is one of two states that assigns Electoral College votes to individual House districts).
Trump won all these toss-up states in 2016: Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona, Florida, and North Carolina.
The Midwestern trifecta of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin is an area where Democrats historically had solidly won presidential elections from the early 1990s, until Trump came along. Of the three, election forecasters believe Michigan and Pennsylvania are likelier to go blue in 2020 than Wisconsin.
The RealClearPolitics average of head-to-head state polls shows Biden up 6.5 percent in Pennsylvania, 5.5 percent in Michigan, and a smaller 2.7 percent lead in Wisconsin. (In the rapidly diversifying Sun Belt states, Biden has a 4 percent lead in Arizona, a 3.3 percent lead in Florida, and Trump has a 1 percent lead in North Carolina.)
Biden winning the three Rust Belt states will take a combination of strong African American turnout in cities like Philadelphia and Detroit, suburban voters, and working-class white voters where Democrats can get them. While Biden is strong with African Americans overall, Trump’s campaign is doing outreach that could cut into that lead.
“We should take the Trump efforts with black men and younger black men seriously,” said Addisu Demissie, former campaign manager for Sen. Cory Booker’s presidential run. “When you’re talking about margins in the tens of thousands in some of these states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Florida, that could be the difference. On the margins, any constituency matters.”
Polls so far show Trump still has a pretty strong hold on working-class white men nationwide, which he won by nearly 50 points in 2017. This is the core of Trump’s base, and they have largely remained loyal. Still, there is the potential for some movement among white non-college-educated women, who Trump carried by 27 points in 2016.
“There seems to be a bit more movement, you can peel a few more of them off,” said Monmouth University Polling Director Patrick Murray, adding that Biden is “certainly going to lose men in that group by a huge margin.”
Winning back working-class areas with Democratic roots and a heavy union presence in 2020 “isn’t rocket science,” said Rep. Conor Lamb, the Pennsylvania Democrat whose long-shot win in a 2018 House special election in western Pennsylvania was a sign of life for the party there. “You can win a lot of votes in these areas, but you’ve got to fight for them.”
“We should take the Trump efforts with black men and younger black men seriously”
When Lamb was first running in the special election, he met plenty of voters who felt left behind by the Democratic Party. “They just kind of felt ignored in a general sense,” Lamb told Vox. Although Clinton had poured resources into Pennsylvania, voters in rural areas outside of Pittsburgh where steel and coal-mining jobs were disappearing didn’t feel it. Many voted for Trump.
This year, Lamb said his constituents aren’t interested in hearing Democrats bash Trump as much as they are in issues that hit their pocketbooks, like the cost of prescription drugs, support for Medicare and Social Security, and well-paying jobs in Pennsylvania’s energy sector. Ties to organized labor in Pennsylvania and Michigan are still strong; less so in Wisconsin after state Republicans there passed a bill to gut unions.
“One of my messages to the Biden campaign has been and will be, it’s important to talk about who we are, what we are for, without mentioning the president,” Lamb said. “People want to know, ‘what are you going to do for me.’”
Rep. Haley Stevens, a moderate Democrat elected to Michigan’s heavily suburban 11th Congressional District outside Detroit, similarly said voters in her communities are tired of the constant partisan bickering in Washington, DC. It also happens the district had the 10th highest turnout in 2018, nationwide. It could see even greater turnout this year.
“We have a lot of people very eager to see the drama stop and see DC get to work for them,” Stevens said.
Biden needs to win over retirees to win Florida, the retiree state
The southern coastal swing state is key to any candidate’s victory on election night. It was crucial to Trump’s Electoral College win in 2016, when the Republican candidate over-performed Mitt Romney in white and rural exurban counties.
Clinton did well in Miami and Fort Lauderdale, but Trump’s performance in the corridor along Interstate 4, around Tampa and St. Petersburg, was too much for Democrats to overcome. They don’t want to make the same mistake twice.
Biden is currently leading Florida by 3.3 percent, according to RealClearPolitics. That’s causing some politicos who had written Florida off as a solid Trump win to rethink its competitiveness. If history is any indicator, the election there could be very tight; the last two presidential elections in the state were decided by less than a point.
“I’ve never understood why people didn’t think Florida was going to be in play,” said Florida Democratic strategist Steve Schale, Obama’s Florida state director in 2008.
Like Arizona, Florida boasts a sizable Latino population, but it’s largely made up of Cubans and Puerto Ricans rather than Mexican-Americans in the southwestern US. Because Florida is home to a contingent of people who fled socialist governments in Cuba and Venezuela, its Latino population tends to be more right-leaning. The GOP has found success with this group in the past. Biden also bested Sanders with Florida Latinos in the 2020 primary.
“What’s fascinating there is it’s a population of people who for the most part came to the US with status,” said Schale, explaining why immigration issues aren’t as salient in Florida as they are in other parts of the country.
When it comes to November, Democrats are looking for opportunities along the I-4 corridor, and the suburbs and exurban communities between Orlando and Tampa are a prime target for them. Older voters account for another big reason why Florida is back on the table for Democrats in 2020. Florida is where many Americans go to retire, including large shares of retirees from places like Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania.
“The swing voters in Florida, they tend to be the retired versions of people who live in the upper Midwest,” Schale said. “[If] the Democrats do well in Florida, they’re also going to do well in the upper Midwest. And if they do well in the upper Midwest, they’re also going to do well in Florida.”
Older voters will be key in Florida, but they’re also a key contingent in really any Electoral College state, whether it be in the Rust Belt or Arizona.
As FiveThirtyEight’s Geoffrey Skelley wrote, Trump’s average margin with older voters in head-to-head polls this year is underperforming his 2016 margins. Among voters 55 and older, Trump’s current margin is 10 points behind where it was in 2016. And among voters 65 and older, the president’s margin is about 14 points behind where it was in 2016. Biden isn’t necessarily winning these voters outright in polls, but he’s catching up to Trump’s numbers. Biden’s team considers even cutting into Trump’s margins with older voters a win.
“We’ll all be cautious about what the margin is,” Anzalone said. “I think we’ll do better, I’m not sure we’ll win them, but even if we cut the margin in half, it’s significant electoral impact.”
To win Florida, Biden needs plenty of retirees in his corner. But he also can’t ignore younger generations in that state, or any other.
Polls around the country show Biden has some work to do with younger voters. These voters tend to be more progressive; they also tend to turn out less reliably than older voters. The former vice president is doing outreach; he has already assembled policy-focused task forces with his former competitor Sen. Bernie Sanders, a popular figure among the younger generation. But more work will need to be done to make up an enthusiasm gap.
“In a close and tight election, these are the difference makers, these are the people who could swing this election,” said Sanders’s former 2020 campaign Faiz Shakir.
A combination of Latinos and suburban whites could put Biden over the top in Arizona
With a 4 percent lead on the RealClearPolitics state polling average, Biden’s campaign seems particularly bullish on Arizona. This southwestern state is a traditionally Republican stronghold that’s trending purple, owing to a combination of a growing Latino vote and white, college-educated suburban voters.
“We believe there will be battleground states that have never been battleground states before — Arizona on the top of the list,” Biden campaign manager Jen O’Malley Dillon told reporters recently. “We are not only ahead [in Arizona], but we have a strong opportunity there to build our pathway to victory.”
Arizona voted for Trump in 2016, but pollsters see substantial demographic changes contributing to Democrats’ recent success there. Democratic US Sen. Kyrsten Sinema was elected in 2018, as was a Democratic secretary of state. And this year’s Arizona Senate race is one of the most competitive in the country.
“The reason states are moving bluer in the Southwest is we’re forming coalitions,” Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-AZ) told Vox. “What happened there is a combination of moderate white Anglos joining with progressive Latinos to win and put progressive Democrats in office.”
A number of Arizona Latinos are progressive, and the Democratic primary between Biden and Sanders was competitive for that reason. Biden’s team plans to do significant outreach there, and Gallego said the work of contacting Latino voters needs to happen as soon as possible.
Changing demographics in North Carolina make it competitive
Out of all the Electoral College toss-ups, North Carolina is the biggest reach state for Democrats in 2020. Trump slightly overperformed Mitt Romney in the red-leaning swing state in 2016, but its cities and suburbs are a growing worry for Republicans.
Trump’s razor-thin 1 point lead in North Carolina’s polling average reflects the state’s complicated political dynamics. In 2008, Obama was the first Democratic presidential candidate to win the state since 1976, and he did it by the slimmest of margins.
But even though Republicans have consistently won presidential elections in the state, the last three elections have been close, 2 to 3 points at the most. Many voters there are moderate, and Democrats successfully took the governor’s seat in 2016, a bright spot in an otherwise dismal election for them.
The reason North Carolina is so competitive this year, both with the presidential contest and the Senate race, is its growing suburbs. People are moving to North Carolina cities and their suburbs; in 2017 and 2018, a full 63 percent of the state’s population growth happened in the Charlotte, Raleigh, and Durham metropolitan areas, which are all considered blue spots and a potential opportunity for Democrats.
As Cook’s Amy Walter noted in a recent analysis, Super Tuesday election results in the state showed that the suburbs around cities saw markedly increased Democratic turnout; 61 percent of the vote for Democrats compared to 38 percent for Republicans (keep in mind, the Republican primary this time was less competitive with Trump as the incumbent). In 2016, Walter wrote, the Republican share of the votes in these suburbs was 54 percent Republican compared to 46 percent Democratic.
In addition to doing better in the North Carolina suburbs, Democrats will also have to cut down Trump’s margins in more rural areas and exurban communities if they have any hope of a good night there.
Obama won in 2008 in part because of enthusiastic black voter turnout, which also helped lift Democrat Kay Hagan to the Senate. Biden likely won’t be able to get the same levels of black support in North Carolina as the first black president did. His best hope there is combining strong black turnout with a surprising level of white suburban support, and cutting into Trump’s rural and exurban voters.
“This is very much about narrowing the margins from 2016,” said Anzalone. “I think that what Biden has going for him in terms of his connection with voters, he has the ability to narrow the margins with rural voters, with exurban voters.”


vox--2020-05-26--Twitter has finally started fact-checking Trump

For the first time ever , Twitter has fact-checked President Trump ’ s tweets .
Until now , Twitter hasn ’ t taken any action against Trump ’ s account or tweets even when he has flouted the social media platform ’ s rules by posting false , harmful , or misleading content .
Twitter ’ s rationale for letting Trump post these kinds of tweets has been that because he is a world leader , his posts are considered newsworthy and are therefore an exception to its policies .
But after years of criticism about that stance , on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on two of Trump ’ s recent tweets that shared misleading information about voting by mail .
On Tuesday afternoon , Twitter placed labels underneath Trump ’ s tweets claiming that mail-in voting ballots in the 2020 presidential race will be “ anything less than substantially fraudulent ” and lead to a “ Rigged Election.
” If you click the labels , they take you to a fact-checking page that calls out the president ’ s false statement .
While Twitter ’ s move will be welcomed by those who have long called @ @ @ @ @ @ @ rules to the president ’ s account , it ’ s also sure to set off conservative critics , who argue that by labeling the president , Twitter is limiting freedom of speech on the platform and reflecting a purported — but unsubstantiated — anti-conservative bias .
Here ’ s what the labels look like : The label links to a fact-check “ Twitter Moments ” page , which calls Trump ’ s claims about potential voter fraud “ unsubstantiated ” and cites news articles from CNN , the Washington Post , and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the following statement about the decision : “ These Tweets ( here and here ) contain potentially misleading information about voting processes and have been labeled to provide additional context around mail-in ballots .
This decision is in line with the approach we shared earlier this month.
” President Trump ’ s 2020 campaign manager Brad Parscale shared a statement expressing the administration ’ s discontent with Twitter ’ s decision shortly after it was announced on Tuesday .
“ We always knew that Silicon Valley would pull out all the stops to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ his message through to voters .
Partnering with the biased fake news media ‘ fact checkers ’ is only a smoke screen Twitter is using to try to lend their obvious political tactics some false credibility , ” Parscale wrote .
“ There are many reasons the Trump campaign pulled all our advertising from Twitter months ago , and their clear political bias is one of them.
” Trump also responded , accusing Twitter of “ interfering in the 2020 Presidential Election ” and stifling free speech by adding the label .
Earlier @ @ @ @ @ @ @ start to label misleading information , which the company says it ’ s been applying to key topics , starting with 5G conspiracies , and now , civic integrity and voting .
The company ’ s decision comes at a time when the president is under scrutiny for his latest tweets — in particular for a series of posts making baseless murder accusations , as well as promoting the drug hydroxychloroquine as a treatment for Covid-19 patients , which could be potentially harmful .
A spokesperson for Twitter told Recode that the company @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in particular because they deal with what the company considers a key issue area of civic integrity and voting .
The company ’ s fact-check of Trump raises some big questions about the precedent this sets for other world leaders .
Will Twitter start fact-checking people like Venezuela ’ s Nicholas Maduro , China ’ s Xi Jinping , and Iran ’ s Ruhollah Khamenei when they make misleading statements on the platform ?
Twitter says it won ’ t be able to fact-check every misleading claim by a world leader , but @ @ @ @ @ @ @ as well .
It has already deleted tweets from Brazil ’ s President Jair Bolsonaro and Venezuela ’ s President Maduro in which they endorsed unproven treatments for Covid-19 .
Last year , it also removed a tweet from an account reportedly linked to Iran ’ s Supreme Leader Khamenei calling for the execution of novelist Salman Rushdie .
While Twitter ’ s move Tuesday is incremental , it signals the company is willing to take more of a stand on misleading content on its platform — even if the person tweeting that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ United States .
The challenge will be when it decides to weigh in on the endless bucket of half-truths , conspiracy theories , and outright lies politicians post every day , and which are likely to increase in cadence as we get closer to the 2020 presidential election .
Every day at Vox , we aim to answer your most important questions and provide you , and our audience around the world , with information that has the power to save lives .
Our mission has never been more vital than it is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ through understanding .
Vox ’ s work is reaching more people than ever , but our distinctive brand of explanatory journalism takes resources — particularly during a pandemic and an economic downturn .
Your financial contribution will not constitute a donation , but it will enable our staff to continue to offer free articles , videos , and podcasts at the quality and volume that this moment requires .
Please consider making a contribution to Vox today .

For the first time ever, Twitter has fact-checked President Trump’s tweets.
Until now, Twitter hasn’t taken any action against Trump’s account or tweets even when he has flouted the social media platform’s rules by posting false, harmful, or misleading content. Twitter’s rationale for letting Trump post these kinds of tweets has been that because he is a world leader, his posts are considered newsworthy and are therefore an exception to its policies. But after years of criticism about that stance, on Tuesday, the company added fact-check labels on two of Trump’s recent tweets that shared misleading information about voting by mail.
On Tuesday afternoon, Twitter placed labels underneath Trump’s tweets claiming that mail-in voting ballots in the 2020 presidential race will be “anything less than substantially fraudulent” and lead to a “Rigged Election.” If you click the labels, they take you to a fact-checking page that calls out the president’s false statement.
While Twitter’s move will be welcomed by those who have long called for Twitter to start applying its policy rules to the president’s account, it’s also sure to set off conservative critics, who argue that by labeling the president, Twitter is limiting freedom of speech on the platform and reflecting a purported — but unsubstantiated — anti-conservative bias.
Here’s what the labels look like:
The label links to a fact-check “Twitter Moments” page, which calls Trump’s claims about potential voter fraud “unsubstantiated” and cites news articles from CNN, the Washington Post, and other media outlets.
The company shared the following statement about the decision:
“These Tweets (here and here) contain potentially misleading information about voting processes and have been labeled to provide additional context around mail-in ballots. This decision is in line with the approach we shared earlier this month.”
President Trump’s 2020 campaign manager Brad Parscale shared a statement expressing the administration’s discontent with Twitter’s decision shortly after it was announced on Tuesday.
“We always knew that Silicon Valley would pull out all the stops to obstruct and interfere with President Trump getting his message through to voters. Partnering with the biased fake news media ‘fact checkers’ is only a smoke screen Twitter is using to try to lend their obvious political tactics some false credibility,” Parscale wrote. “There are many reasons the Trump campaign pulled all our advertising from Twitter months ago, and their clear political bias is one of them.”
Trump also responded, accusing Twitter of “interfering in the 2020 Presidential Election” and stifling free speech by adding the label.
.@Twitter is now interfering in the 2020 Presidential Election. They are saying my statement on Mail-In Ballots, which will lead to massive corruption and fraud, is incorrect, based on fact-checking by Fake News CNN and the Amazon Washington Post.... — Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) May 26, 2020
Earlier in May, Twitter announced it would start to label misleading information, which the company says it’s been applying to key topics, starting with 5G conspiracies, and now, civic integrity and voting.
The company’s decision comes at a time when the president is under scrutiny for his latest tweets — in particular for a series of posts making baseless murder accusations, as well as promoting the drug hydroxychloroquine as a treatment for Covid-19 patients, which could be potentially harmful.
A spokesperson for Twitter told Recode that the company decided to label the mail-in ballot tweets in particular because they deal with what the company considers a key issue area of civic integrity and voting.
The company’s fact-check of Trump raises some big questions about the precedent this sets for other world leaders. Will Twitter start fact-checking people like Venezuela’s Nicholas Maduro, China’s Xi Jinping, and Iran’s Ruhollah Khamenei when they make misleading statements on the platform?
Twitter says it won’t be able to fact-check every misleading claim by a world leader, but will start doing so for some others as well. It has already deleted tweets from Brazil’s President Jair Bolsonaro and Venezuela’s President Maduro in which they endorsed unproven treatments for Covid-19. Last year, it also removed a tweet from an account reportedly linked to Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei calling for the execution of novelist Salman Rushdie.
While Twitter’s move Tuesday is incremental, it signals the company is willing to take more of a stand on misleading content on its platform — even if the person tweeting that misleading information is the president of the United States. The challenge will be when it decides to weigh in on the endless bucket of half-truths, conspiracy theories, and outright lies politicians post every day, and which are likely to increase in cadence as we get closer to the 2020 presidential election.


vox--2020-05-26--Trump dismisses his own government’s guidance about masks as “politically correct”

President Donald Trump ’ s impromptu news conference late on Tuesday afternoon began with him musing about taking insulin just for fun and ended with him explaining his opposition to mail-in voting by characterizing voting as “ an honor ” ( it ’ s actually a right ) .
The stuff he said in between wasn ’ t any less wacky .
The event , which came on the same day that the official US coronavirus death toll closes in on 100,000 and was ostensibly about what his administration is doing to bring down the price of insulin , revealed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in trying to respond to a public health crisis that requires scientific expertise — as well as how desperate he is to generate distractions giving him something else to talk about .
For anyone who isn ’ t already drinking the MAGA Kool-Aid , it was not a reassuring spectacle .
The president is hopelessly confused about how masks work The first question Trump fielded was from Jeff Mason of Reuters , who asked him to explain a retweet he posted on Monday seemingly mocking presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden for wearing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in the day .
Trump ’ s response indicated he ’ s deeply confused about how masks work .
“ He was standing outside with his wife , perfect conditions , perfect weather — when they ’ re inside they don ’ t wear masks , ” Trump said .
“ And so I thought it was very unusual he had one on.
” But all Biden was doing was following the guidance of Trump ’ s own government about wearing masks in public .
Trump seems to think he should also be @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the entire point is to mitigate the spread of the coronavirus when people are out and about — something Biden obviously doesn ’ t have to worry about at home .
But even this basic understanding of how masks work is seemingly lost on the president .
Then , as Mason tried to ask a follow-up question , Trump cut him off and asked him to remove his mask .
Mason refused , prompting Trump to dismiss mask-wearing as an effort to be “ politically correct.
” “ You want to be politically @ @ @ @ @ @ @ No sir , I just want to wear the mask , ” Mason responded .
To be clear , Mason was following the guidance of the federal government .
Trump — who was not wearing a mask — was not .
And yet here was the president chastising someone for taking basic precautions that are in the public interest and that he refuses to follow himself .
Trump ’ s retweet mocking Biden for wearing a mask was far from his only objectionable post .
He also posted tweets over the weekend pushing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ prominent critic of his , MSNBC host Joe Scarborough , in the death of a woman named Lori Klausutis .
( Trump has repeatedly falsely characterized the situation as a “ cold case ” — in fact , the woman died of natural causes . )
On Monday , Klausutis ’ s widower went as far as to pen a letter asking Twitter to take Trump ’ s tweet down , citing the trauma they ’ re inflicting on Klausutis ’ s family .
But asked to address the situation on Tuesday , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ A lot of people suggest that , ” Trump said , alluding to his false claims about Scarborough ’ s involvement .
“ Hopefully somebody , people are gon na find out .
Certainly a very suspicious situation .
Very sad.
” But the situation isn ’ t suspicious .
It has been investigated , and Klausutis was found to have died of natural causes .
And yet during a follow-up exchange , Trump noted “ there is no statute of limitations ” and called for a baseless investigation into a prominent @ @ @ @ @ @ @ behavior is clearly indecent , but he ’ s either incapable of or unwilling to recognize that .
His call for transparently politicized investigations into discredited conspiracy theories would ’ ve generated major headlines in any previous era , but in 2020 it ’ s just Trump being Trump .
The Scarborough conspiracy theory was far from the only one Trump pushed during Tuesday ’ s event .
He accused North Carolina Gov .
Roy Cooper ( D ) of acting “ very suspiciously ” by refusing to commit to allowing 20,000 people @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the Republican National Convention in August , even though Cooper has obvious commonsense reasons for being unwilling to do so at a time when coronavirus cases in his state are still increasing .
And Trump also tried to discredit mail-in voting by saying it would “ destroy our country ” and lead to “ a rigged system ” — even though five states , including deep-red Utah , already conduct their elections almost entirely with mail-in ballots .
Trump makes all sorts of stuff up Trump spent Saturday and Sunday at the golf @ @ @ @ @ @ @ believe that forcing states to reopen places of worship is something he ’ s deadly serious about doing .
Trump doesn ’ t really have the power to follow through on this threat , which he first made during a White House event last Friday , but he ’ s not about to let the Constitution get in the way of his narrative .
Asked on Tuesday to detail what authority gives him the power to override governors and force open places of worship that have already proven to be coronavirus vectors , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ do it if I want to ” — but couldn ’ t cite anything .
“ We have many different ways where we could override them , ” he said , without elaborating , before moving on .
All in all , the event was both a throwback to the lengthy and at times highly confrontational news conferences Trump held just about every day in March and April — made-for-TV events he clearly enjoyed but that exposed his ignorance and ended after his advisers reportedly concluded they were hurting Trump in the polls @ @ @ @ @ @ @ himself — ignorant comments , conspiracy theories , and baseless claims are just his thing .
But in the context of a pandemic he was unprepared for and has no plan to pull the country out of , the unintentional comedy seems less amusing than ever .
Every day at Vox , we aim to answer your most important questions and provide you , and our audience around the world , with information that has the power to save lives .
Our mission has never been more vital than it is in this @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Vox ’ s work is reaching more people than ever , but our distinctive brand of explanatory journalism takes resources — particularly during a pandemic and an economic downturn .
Your financial contribution will not constitute a donation , but it will enable our staff to continue to offer free articles , videos , and podcasts at the quality and volume that this moment requires .
Please consider making a contribution to Vox today .

President Donald Trump’s impromptu news conference late on Tuesday afternoon began with him musing about taking insulin just for fun and ended with him explaining his opposition to mail-in voting by characterizing voting as “an honor” (it’s actually a right). The stuff he said in between wasn’t any less wacky.
The event, which came on the same day that the official US coronavirus death toll closes in on 100,000 and was ostensibly about what his administration is doing to bring down the price of insulin, revealed how out of his depth Trump is in trying to respond to a public health crisis that requires scientific expertise — as well as how desperate he is to generate distractions giving him something else to talk about.
For anyone who isn’t already drinking the MAGA Kool-Aid, it was not a reassuring spectacle.
The president is hopelessly confused about how masks work
The first question Trump fielded was from Jeff Mason of Reuters, who asked him to explain a retweet he posted on Monday seemingly mocking presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden for wearing a mask during a public appearance earlier in the day. Trump’s response indicated he’s deeply confused about how masks work.
“He was standing outside with his wife, perfect conditions, perfect weather — when they’re inside they don’t wear masks,” Trump said. “And so I thought it was very unusual he had one on.”
Trump on why he seemingly criticized Biden for wearing a mask: "He was standing outside with his wife, perfect conditions, perfect weather -- when they're inside they don't wear masks. And so I thought it was very unusual he had one on." pic.twitter.com/zTcft2ymUP — Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) May 26, 2020
But all Biden was doing was following the guidance of Trump’s own government about wearing masks in public. Trump seems to think he should also be wearing a mask at home, but the entire point is to mitigate the spread of the coronavirus when people are out and about — something Biden obviously doesn’t have to worry about at home. But even this basic understanding of how masks work is seemingly lost on the president.
Then, as Mason tried to ask a follow-up question, Trump cut him off and asked him to remove his mask. Mason refused, prompting Trump to dismiss mask-wearing as an effort to be “politically correct.”
“You want to be politically correct,” Trump said.
“No sir, I just want to wear the mask,” Mason responded.
"You want to be politically correct" -- Trump asks @jeffmason1 to take his mask off then disses him when he refuses to do so pic.twitter.com/ALhIY9n5e2 — Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) May 26, 2020
To be clear, Mason was following the guidance of the federal government. Trump — who was not wearing a mask — was not. And yet here was the president chastising someone for taking basic precautions that are in the public interest and that he refuses to follow himself.
Trump won’t stop pushing baseless murder conspiracies
Trump’s retweet mocking Biden for wearing a mask was far from his only objectionable post. He also posted tweets over the weekend pushing a baseless conspiracy meant to implicate a prominent critic of his, MSNBC host Joe Scarborough, in the death of a woman named Lori Klausutis. (Trump has repeatedly falsely characterized the situation as a “cold case” — in fact, the woman died of natural causes.)
On Monday, Klausutis’s widower went as far as to pen a letter asking Twitter to take Trump’s tweet down, citing the trauma they’re inflicting on Klausutis’s family. But asked to address the situation on Tuesday, Trump indicated he has no regrets.
“A lot of people suggest that,” Trump said, alluding to his false claims about Scarborough’s involvement. “Hopefully somebody, people are gonna find out. Certainly a very suspicious situation. Very sad.”
But the situation isn’t suspicious. It has been investigated, and Klausutis was found to have died of natural causes. And yet during a follow-up exchange, Trump noted “there is no statute of limitations” and called for a baseless investigation into a prominent critic of his.
"A lot of people suggest that ... very sad and very suspicious ... there is no statute of limitations. So, it would be a very good thing to do" -- Trump defends pushing false Joe Scarborough conspiracy theories and calls for him to be investigated pic.twitter.com/NeJQ2uBZp8 — Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) May 26, 2020
Trump’s behavior is clearly indecent, but he’s either incapable of or unwilling to recognize that. His call for transparently politicized investigations into discredited conspiracy theories would’ve generated major headlines in any previous era, but in 2020 it’s just Trump being Trump.
The Scarborough conspiracy theory was far from the only one Trump pushed during Tuesday’s event. He accused North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper (D) of acting “very suspiciously” by refusing to commit to allowing 20,000 people to pack into a Charlotte arena for the Republican National Convention in August, even though Cooper has obvious commonsense reasons for being unwilling to do so at a time when coronavirus cases in his state are still increasing.
And Trump also tried to discredit mail-in voting by saying it would “destroy our country” and lead to “a rigged system” — even though five states, including deep-red Utah, already conduct their elections almost entirely with mail-in ballots.
Asked to explain his opposition to mail-in voting, claims "voting is a great honor" (it's actually a right) and then ends his news conference pic.twitter.com/H0UDVDGgxC — Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) May 26, 2020
Trump makes all sorts of stuff up
Trump spent Saturday and Sunday at the golf course, yet he wants people to believe that forcing states to reopen places of worship is something he’s deadly serious about doing. Trump doesn’t really have the power to follow through on this threat, which he first made during a White House event last Friday, but he’s not about to let the Constitution get in the way of his narrative.
Asked on Tuesday to detail what authority gives him the power to override governors and force open places of worship that have already proven to be coronavirus vectors, Trump claimed, “I can absolutely do it if I want to” — but couldn’t cite anything.
“We have many different ways where we could override them,” he said, without elaborating, before moving on.
"I can absolutely do it if I want to" -- Trump insists he has the authority to overrule state governors if they refuse to reopen places of worship (he does not have that authority) pic.twitter.com/GxslxOJf1t — Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) May 26, 2020
All in all, the event was both a throwback to the lengthy and at times highly confrontational news conferences Trump held just about every day in March and April — made-for-TV events he clearly enjoyed but that exposed his ignorance and ended after his advisers reportedly concluded they were hurting Trump in the polls.
Trump clearly can’t help himself — ignorant comments, conspiracy theories, and baseless claims are just his thing. But in the context of a pandemic he was unprepared for and has no plan to pull the country out of, the unintentional comedy seems less amusing than ever.


vox--2020-05-26--The killing of Ahmaud Arbery, an unarmed black jogger in Georgia, explained

The fatal shooting of Ahmaud Arbery — an unarmed black man who was attacked while jogging by two white men — is now being investigated by the Department of Justice as a hate crime , according to lawyers for the Arbery family .
That announcement comes days after the arrest of William “ Roddie ” Bryan , the man who recorded the viral video of Arbery ’ s final moments .
Bryan was charged with felony murder and criminal attempt to commit false imprisonment on May 21 , two weeks after his neighbors , the two white men in that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , a retired district attorney investigator and police detective , and his son Travis McMichael , 34 — were arrested and charged with murder and aggravated assault .
Arbery was killed on February 23 , when the McMichaels armed themselves and followed him in a pickup truck after seeing him jog by ; they later told police officers they believed Arbery to be a suspect in two burglaries in the Satilla Shores area .
The case did not receive national attention , however , until Bryan ’ s graphic video — released by @ @ @ @ @ @ @ last moments of the 25-year-old ’ s life — went viral on May 5 .
Arbery ’ s mother , Wanda Cooper-Jones , told CBS News that the video “ proves that my son was not committing a crime .
He was out for his daily jog and he was hunted down like an animal and killed.
” The footage sparked outrage among criminal justice advocates across the country , and led a Georgia prosecutor to call for a grand jury to investigate the fatal shooting .
Besides looking into hate crime charges @ @ @ @ @ @ @ reviewing how Arbery ’ s killing was handled .
Arbery ’ s death has been compared with the shooting deaths of many other unarmed black people , including 17-year-old Trayvon Martin and Botham Jean , who was killed in his Dallas apartment in 2018 .
Protests have continued in Georgia — where social distancing requirements were recently relaxed — with hundreds of people marching through Satilla Shores , promising to “ run with Maud ” and chanting , “ We want justice !
” “ The video is very clear that they were @ @ @ @ @ @ @ down , ” civil rights attorney Benjamin Crump , who represents Arbery ’ s father , told the Associated Press .
“ I don ’ t know what more you need to make an arrest.
” Prior to the video ’ s release , the only public record of Arbery ’ s final moments were the statements the McMichaels gave to police .
An investigation into the shooting had been limited , as a series of prosecutors recused themselves from the case over their ties to Gregory McMichael .
This has frustrated Arbery @ @ @ @ @ @ @ his killing — and the subsequent actions of local law enforcement — shows how little has changed in an area of Georgia that ’ s been described as dotted with Confederate flags , with a history of mobs of white men taking justice into their own hands in a manner that leaves black men dead .
Everything we know about Ahmaud Arbery ’ s killing Arbery , a former high school football star , was passionate about staying in shape , according to friends and family , who told the New York Times @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
He went for one such run on February 23 , ending up in Satilla Shores , a few miles away from his home in Glynn County .
“ The video is very clear that they were on the truck with guns hunting him down .
I don ’ t know what more you need to make an arrest.
” Gregory McMichael claims he was in his front yard when he saw Arbery “ hauling ass , ” after which he ran inside to get a weapon and his son , Travis .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ Travis , the guy is running down the street , let ’ s go.
” By “ the guy , ” he meant the person responsible for what some in the neighborhood have described as two burglaries .
Larry English , a man whose home was under construction in the McMichaels ’ neighborhood , said someone stole $ 2,500 in fishing gear from him earlier this year , but he never reported the theft , he told the Daily Beast ; he also never accused Arbery of committing any crimes .
It @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , that the Glynn County Police Department contacted English in December 2019 , asking him to reach out to Gregory McMichael whenever he “ got action ” on his surveillance camera , according to the Atlanta Journal-Constitution .
“ Greg is retired Law Enforcement and also a Retired Investigator from the DA ’ s office , ” Officer Robert Rash texted English , along with McMichael ’ s phone number .
“ He said please call him day or night when you get action on your camera.
” English ’ s attorney said @ @ @ @ @ @ @ his offer .
Trespassing on English ’ s property was , apparently , a common occurrence .
In mid-May , CNN obtained 11 surveillance clips from English ’ s attorney and found that multiple people , including women and children , had entered the home in the months leading up to Arbery ’ s death .
The only confirmed instance of Arbery himself being on the property was on February 23 .
The second burglary in the area was reported to police by Travis McMichael , who said a 9 mm pistol was @ @ @ @ @ @ @ parked outside his home .
In the police report filed after Arbery ’ s killing , Gregory McMichael said the burglar had been caught on surveillance video and that Arbery matched the description of the suspect .
There seemed to be concern about Arbery ’ s presence in the neighborhood for much of his time there on the afternoon of February 23 ; several calls , at least one of which was from the McMichaels , were placed to 911 .
Satilla Shores is a predominantly white neighborhood , one the Daily Beast @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ several homes ... decorated with Trump flags , one bearing the president ’ s smiling face with the phrase , Make liberals cry again.
” The first featured a caller expressing distress about Arbery being near a house that is under construction on property owned by English .
The dispatcher asked what Arbery was doing wrong but never received an answer .
Arbery ’ s family has said he ’ s always been inquisitive and was likely just having a look at the bones of the home , since that ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ day .
After that first call , 911 received another , in which the caller said , “ I ’ m out here at Satilla Shores .
There ’ s a black male running down the street.
” The caller can be heard yelling , “ Watch that .
Stop , damn it !
Stop !
” but stops responding to the dispatcher ’ s inquiries .
As these calls were being made , the McMichaels were preparing to pursue Arbery .
Gregory McMichael told police he armed himself with a .357 magnum @ @ @ @ @ @ @ He told police he felt the weapons were called for because he ’ d seen Arbery in the neighborhood previously with his hand in his pants in a manner suggestive of a firearm .
Then the men got into Travis McMichael ’ s pickup truck and began to chase Arbery through the neighborhood .
Arbery ’ s uncle told the Brunswick News that Arbery was amazingly fast and agile .
And the police report suggests that — despite being on foot — he evaded the McMichaels for a time .
Gregory McMichael claims @ @ @ @ @ @ @ with his truck , but that he turned around and ran in the other direction .
The police report mentions another person , identified only as “ Roddy ” — William Bryan — who tried unsuccessfully to cut Arbery off with his vehicle .
McMichael claims they were able to catch up with Arbery and shouted out of the truck , “ Stop , stop , we want to talk to you , ” before stopping the truck beside him , at which point Travis exited with his shotgun .
Then , McMichael @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the two men fought over the shotgun , two shots were fired , and then Arbery fell , bleeding .
The officer who wrote the report said Arbery died not long after police arrived on the scene .
But the video — filmed by Bryan from his vehicle — appears to show something slightly different .
Civil rights attorney S. Lee Merritt , who is representing Arbery ’ s family , reposted the video on his Twitter account on May 5 .
As the vehicle turns a bend in a road , a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ what Arbery was described as wearing in 911 calls — can be seen running .
A white pickup truck , ostensibly the McMichaels ’ , blocks his path ; a white man is in the street next to the driver ’ s side of the truck , and another stands in the flatbed .
The video is blocked by the dashboard for a moment , and some unintelligible yelling can be heard .
The video then shows the black man trying to run around the truck .
It ’ s not possible to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s a gunshot ; the black man and the white man who was standing in the road reappear in the frame , engaged in a struggle , and move off the road , again leaving the video ’ s frame .
As the man in the flatbed brings up his firearm , there ’ s another gunshot .
The video Merritt posted ends with the struggle — seemingly over possession of a firearm — continuing .
A longer version available online features a third gunshot , and the black man falling to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ with blood .
While the police were en route , Arbery was “ on the ground ‘ bleeding out , ’ ” according to the report .
Travis McMichael had blood on his hands ; his father said this was from Travis rolling Arbery ’ s body over to check for a gun .
An autopsy report released May 12 revealed that Arbery was shot twice in the chest and “ had a third wound ” on one of his wrists .
Arbery ’ s supporters say this is a clear case of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ an investigation Advocates for Arbery argue his killing is a very clear case of racial profiling ; in his caption for the video , Merritt wrote , “ Ahmaud Arbery was pursued by three white men that targeted him solely because of his race and murdered him without justification.
” It ’ s a sentiment echoed by others , including presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden , who tweeted , “ The video is clear : Ahmaud Arbery was killed in cold blood.
” Stacey Abrams , who narrowly lost Georgia ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ she hopes to become Biden ’ s running mate , demanded a “ full investigation , appropriate charges , and an unbiased prosecution.
” But charges have been slow in coming , due to conflicts of interest and Georgia ’ s stand-your-ground law and citizen ’ s arrest law .
The case is on its fourth prosecutor ; the first put in charge of the case , Brunswick District Attorney Jackie Johnson , recused herself because she ’ d previously employed Gregory McMichael .
The district attorney of Waycross , Georgia , George @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , but he recused himself after Arbery ’ s mother pointed out his son works in Johnson ’ s office .
Barnhill officially recused himself in an April 7 letter — and in it , he wrote that his son and Gregory McMichael “ both helped with the previous prosecution of Arbery ” on behalf of Johnson ’ s office .
Arbery was convicted of probation violation after facing a shoplifting charge in 2018 , something Barnhill pointed out in an earlier letter in which he laid out the reasons he believed the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that letter , dated April 3 , Barnhill suggested Arbery had mental health issues , and highlighted not just the shoplifting issue , but also the incident that led to Arbery being placed on probation : having brought a gun to campus while he was in high school .
The letter also notes Georgia has an open-carry law , a separate state law allows a private citizen to attempt arrests if an “ offense is committed in his presence or within his immediate knowledge , ” and that it has a stand-your-ground law @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to use deadly force to protect himself , ” without having to first try to retreat or call law enforcement .
Merritt has dismissed Barnhill ’ s interpretation of these laws , telling CNN he doesn ’ t believe the McMichaels were trying to make a citizen ’ s arrest , noting that the McMichaels ’ statements frame the shooting as an act of self-defense .
And he said the citizen ’ s arrest law says “ you actually have to be observing the crime or be in the immediate knowledge of the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ claimed this was the case .
The Washington Post also reported that Gregory McMichael had his law enforcement certification suspended last year after repeatedly failing to complete required training .
He also received a warning in 2014 for neglecting to finish mandatory firearms and use-of-force classes .
Merritt has also pushed back against other claims in Barnhill ’ s letter , including the references to Arbery ’ s mental health and previous interactions with the legal system .
“ The reference to ... alleged conduct from high school or shoplifting is absurd and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , ” Merritt said .
The shoplifting case does connect Barnhill , Gregory McMichael , and Arbery , however .
When Barnhill recused himself in an April 7 letter , he wrote that his son and Gregory McMichael “ both helped with the previous prosecution of Arbery ” on behalf of Johnson ’ s office .
The real impetus behind the killing , Merritt suggested , can be seen in the 911 calls , when the caller fails to give a clear reason for the call but does note , “ There ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ street.
” Gregory McMichael told the Daily Beast Arbery ’ s race was irrelevant and that he “ never would have gone after someone for their color , ” saying instead that Barnhill ’ s letter is the “ closest version of the truth.
” Meanwhile , pressure has mounted for Barnhill and Johnson to be removed from office .
Protesters gathered at the Glynn County Courthouse on May 16 to demand their resignations .
“ Racism is real in America and racism is real in Brunswick , Georgia and we come today @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and the supremacist that we will fight you with everything that we have , ” Rev .
Timothy McDonald said at the protests , Reuters reported .
Investigations have ramped up since the video went viral On the day the graphic video went viral , the third district attorney on the case — Tom Durden of Hinesville , Georgia — announced that a grand jury would investigate the killing , and accepted an offer from the Georgia Bureau of Investigation , an independent state agency with investigative and forensic expertise , for assistance @ @ @ @ @ @ @ over the case , the McMichaels were arrested and booked in a Glynn County jail .
They both face charges of aggravated assault and murder .
A day later , Georgia Bureau of Investigation Director Vic Reynolds announced that Bryan was also under investigation .
He was charged with felony murder and criminal attempt to commit false imprisonment two weeks later .
On May 10 , Georgia Attorney General Chris Carr announced he had asked the Department of Justice to investigate the handling of the case .
“ We are committed to a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Ahmaud Arbery case was handled from the outset , ” Carr said in a statement .
“ The family , the community and the state of Georgia deserve answers , and we will work with others in law enforcement at the state and federal level to find those answers.
” Meanwhile , Carr reassigned the case to a new district attorney , Joyette Holmes of Cobb County , which is northwest of Atlanta .
In a statement , Carr said that while Durden had been executing his duties well , he believed someone @ @ @ @ @ @ @ This case has grown in size and magnitude since [ Durden ] accepted the appointment on April 13 , 2020 , ” Carr said .
“ As an experienced District Attorney , Tom has recognized that another office is better suited from a resource perspective to now handle the case.
” Holmes is the first black woman to lead Cobb County ’ s district attorney office , and has served in that role since 2019 .
She was previously a chief magistrate , and has served as both a prosecutor and defense attorney @ @ @ @ @ @ @ have praised the decision , with Merritt and Chris Stewart , another of Cooper-Jones ’ s lawyers , saying they ’ d asked Carr to assign a new district attorney to the case as they felt “ the south Georgia prosecutorial community was tainted by the delay in action prior to the video being released.
” Correction : An earlier version of this story miscategorized the incidents described by Larry English and Travis McMichael .
They were described as thefts or burglaries .
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Editor’s note, November 24, 2021: This article was last updated in June 2020. Travis and Gregory McMichael and William Bryan have since been found guilty in Ahmaud Arbery’s murder. To read our latest coverage of the verdict, click here.
The three white men arrested in the fatal shooting of Ahmaud Arbery — an unarmed black man who was attacked while jogging — were indicted on murder charges Wednesday by a grand jury in Georgia.
Arbery was killed on February 23, when Gregory McMichael, 64, a retired district attorney investigator and police detective, and his son Travis McMichael, 34, armed themselves and followed him in a pickup truck after seeing him jog by. They later told police officers they believed Arbery to be a suspect in two burglaries in the Satilla Shores area.
The McMichaels — along with neighbor William “Roddie” Bryan, who filmed the incident — were arrested and charged last month with murder. And on Wednesday, District Attorney Joyette M. Holmes announced that the Glynn County grand jury had returned an indictment on all three defendants, including four counts of felony murder, two counts of aggravated assault, and one count each of false imprisonment and criminal attempt to commit false imprisonment.
While the shooting happened months ago, the case did not receive national attention until Bryan’s graphic video — released by Arbery’s family and showing the last moments of the 25-year-old’s life — went viral on May 5.
Arbery’s mother, Wanda Cooper-Jones, told CBS News that the video “proves that my son was not committing a crime. He was out for his daily jog and he was hunted down like an animal and killed.”
The footage sparked outrage among criminal justice advocates across the country, and led to the call for a grand jury to investigate the fatal shooting. The Department of Justice is also looking into hate crime charges and reviewing how Arbery’s killing was handled on the state and local levels.
Arbery’s death has been compared with the shooting deaths of many other unarmed black people, including 17-year-old Trayvon Martin and Botham Jean, who was killed in his Dallas apartment in 2018. Protests have continued in Georgia — where social distancing requirements were recently relaxed — with hundreds of people marching through Satilla Shores, promising to “run with Maud” and chanting, “We want justice!”
“The video is very clear that they were on the truck with guns hunting him down,” civil rights attorney Benjamin Crump, who represents Arbery’s father, told the Associated Press. “I don’t know what more you need to make an arrest.”
Prior to the video’s release, the only public record of Arbery’s final moments were the statements the McMichaels gave to police. An investigation into the shooting had been limited, as a series of prosecutors recused themselves from the case over their ties to Gregory McMichael. This has frustrated Arbery’s supporters, who argue that his killing — and the subsequent actions of local law enforcement — shows how little has changed in an area of Georgia that’s been described as dotted with Confederate flags, with a history of mobs of white men taking justice into their own hands in a manner that leaves black men dead.
Everything we know about Ahmaud Arbery’s killing
Arbery, a former high school football star, was passionate about staying in shape, according to friends and family, who told the New York Times he often spent his free time running. He went for one such run on February 23, ending up in Satilla Shores, a few miles away from his home in Glynn County.
“The video is very clear that they were on the truck with guns hunting him down. I don’t know what more you need to make an arrest.”
Gregory McMichael claims he was in his front yard when he saw Arbery “hauling ass,” after which he ran inside to get a weapon and his son, Travis. He told police that he said, “Travis, the guy is running down the street, let’s go.”
By “the guy,” he meant the person responsible for what some in the neighborhood have described as two burglaries. Larry English, a man whose home was under construction in the McMichaels’ neighborhood, said someone stole $2,500 in fishing gear from him earlier this year, but he never reported the theft, he told the Daily Beast; he also never accused Arbery of committing any crimes.
It has since come to light, however, that the Glynn County Police Department contacted English in December 2019, asking him to reach out to Gregory McMichael whenever he “got action” on his surveillance camera, according to the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. “Greg is retired Law Enforcement and also a Retired Investigator from the DA’s office,” Officer Robert Rash texted English, along with McMichael’s phone number. “He said please call him day or night when you get action on your camera.” English’s attorney said her client never took McMichael up on his offer.
Trespassing on English’s property was, apparently, a common occurrence. In mid-May, CNN obtained 11 surveillance clips from English’s attorney and found that multiple people, including women and children, had entered the home in the months leading up to Arbery’s death. The only confirmed instance of Arbery himself being on the property was on February 23.
The second burglary in the area was reported to police by Travis McMichael, who said a 9 mm pistol was stolen on January 1 from a vehicle parked outside his home. In the police report filed after Arbery’s killing, Gregory McMichael said the burglar had been caught on surveillance video and that Arbery matched the description of the suspect.
There seemed to be concern about Arbery’s presence in the neighborhood for much of his time there on the afternoon of February 23; several calls, at least one of which was from the McMichaels, were placed to 911. Satilla Shores is a predominantly white neighborhood, one the Daily Beast’s Justin Glawe describes as featuring “several homes ... decorated with Trump flags, one bearing the president’s smiling face with the phrase, Make liberals cry again.”
The first featured a caller expressing distress about Arbery being near a house that is under construction on property owned by English. The dispatcher asked what Arbery was doing wrong but never received an answer. Arbery’s family has said he’s always been inquisitive and was likely just having a look at the bones of the home, since that’s something one doesn’t see every day.
After that first call, 911 received another, in which the caller said, “I’m out here at Satilla Shores. There’s a black male running down the street.” The caller can be heard yelling, “Watch that. Stop, damn it! Stop!” but stops responding to the dispatcher’s inquiries.
As these calls were being made, the McMichaels were preparing to pursue Arbery. Gregory McMichael told police he armed himself with a .357 magnum while his son got a shotgun. He told police he felt the weapons were called for because he’d seen Arbery in the neighborhood previously with his hand in his pants in a manner suggestive of a firearm. Then the men got into Travis McMichael’s pickup truck and began to chase Arbery through the neighborhood.
Arbery’s uncle told the Brunswick News that Arbery was amazingly fast and agile. And the police report suggests that — despite being on foot — he evaded the McMichaels for a time. Gregory McMichael claims his son tried to cut off Arbery with his truck, but that he turned around and ran in the other direction.
The police report mentions another person, identified only as “Roddy” — William Bryan — who tried unsuccessfully to cut Arbery off with his vehicle.
McMichael claims they were able to catch up with Arbery and shouted out of the truck, “Stop, stop, we want to talk to you,” before stopping the truck beside him, at which point Travis exited with his shotgun. Then, McMichael claims, Arbery attacked his son, the two men fought over the shotgun, two shots were fired, and then Arbery fell, bleeding. The officer who wrote the report said Arbery died not long after police arrived on the scene.
But the video — filmed by Bryan from his vehicle — appears to show something slightly different. Civil rights attorney S. Lee Merritt, who is representing Arbery’s family, reposted the video on his Twitter account on May 5.
As the vehicle turns a bend in a road, a black man wearing a white shirt — what Arbery was described as wearing in 911 calls — can be seen running. A white pickup truck, ostensibly the McMichaels’, blocks his path; a white man is in the street next to the driver’s side of the truck, and another stands in the flatbed. The video is blocked by the dashboard for a moment, and some unintelligible yelling can be heard. The video then shows the black man trying to run around the truck.
It’s not possible to see what happens next, but there’s a gunshot; the black man and the white man who was standing in the road reappear in the frame, engaged in a struggle, and move off the road, again leaving the video’s frame. As the man in the flatbed brings up his firearm, there’s another gunshot. The video Merritt posted ends with the struggle — seemingly over possession of a firearm — continuing. A longer version available online features a third gunshot, and the black man falling to the pavement, his shirt seemingly red with blood.
While the police were en route, Arbery was “on the ground ‘bleeding out,’” according to the report. Travis McMichael had blood on his hands; his father said this was from Travis rolling Arbery’s body over to check for a gun.
An autopsy report released May 12 revealed that Arbery was shot twice in the chest and “had a third wound” on one of his wrists.
Arbery’s supporters say this is a clear case of racist murder — but complications have inhibited an investigation
Advocates for Arbery argue his killing is a very clear case of racial profiling; in his caption for the video, Merritt wrote, “Ahmaud Arbery was pursued by three white men that targeted him solely because of his race and murdered him without justification.”
It’s a sentiment echoed by others, including presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden, who tweeted, “The video is clear: Ahmaud Arbery was killed in cold blood.”
Stacey Abrams, who narrowly lost Georgia’s 2018 gubernatorial election and who has said she hopes to become Biden’s running mate, demanded a “full investigation, appropriate charges, and an unbiased prosecution.”
But charges were slow coming, due to conflicts of interest and Georgia’s stand-your-ground law and citizen’s arrest law.
The case is on its fourth prosecutor; the first put in charge of the case, Brunswick District Attorney Jackie Johnson, recused herself because she’d previously employed Gregory McMichael. The district attorney of Waycross, Georgia, George Barnhill, was then assigned to it, but he recused himself after Arbery’s mother pointed out his son works in Johnson’s office.
Barnhill officially recused himself in an April 7 letter — and in it, he wrote that his son and Gregory McMichael “both helped with the previous prosecution of Arbery” on behalf of Johnson’s office. Arbery was convicted of probation violation after facing a shoplifting charge in 2018, something Barnhill pointed out in an earlier letter in which he laid out the reasons he believed the McMichaels had done nothing wrong.
In that letter, dated April 3, Barnhill suggested Arbery had mental health issues, and highlighted not just the shoplifting issue, but also the incident that led to Arbery being placed on probation: having brought a gun to campus while he was in high school.
The letter also notes Georgia has an open-carry law, a separate state law allows a private citizen to attempt arrests if an “offense is committed in his presence or within his immediate knowledge,” and that it has a stand-your-ground law that allows someone who feels threatened “to use deadly force to protect himself,” without having to first try to retreat or call law enforcement.
Merritt has dismissed Barnhill’s interpretation of these laws, telling CNN he doesn’t believe the McMichaels were trying to make a citizen’s arrest, noting that the McMichaels’ statements frame the shooting as an act of self-defense.
And he said the citizen’s arrest law says “you actually have to be observing the crime or be in the immediate knowledge of the crime” but argues the McMichaels never claimed this was the case.
The Washington Post also reported that Gregory McMichael had his law enforcement certification suspended last year after repeatedly failing to complete required training. He also received a warning in 2014 for neglecting to finish mandatory firearms and use-of-force classes.
Merritt has also pushed back against other claims in Barnhill’s letter, including the references to Arbery’s mental health and previous interactions with the legal system.
“The reference to ... alleged conduct from high school or shoplifting is absurd and has nothing to do with his murder,” Merritt said.
The shoplifting case does connect Barnhill, Gregory McMichael, and Arbery, however. When Barnhill recused himself in an April 7 letter, he wrote that his son and Gregory McMichael “both helped with the previous prosecution of Arbery” on behalf of Johnson’s office.
The real impetus behind the killing, Merritt suggested, can be seen in the 911 calls, when the caller fails to give a clear reason for the call but does note, “There’s a black male running down the street.”
Gregory McMichael told the Daily Beast Arbery’s race was irrelevant and that he “never would have gone after someone for their color,” saying instead that Barnhill’s letter is the “closest version of the truth.”
Meanwhile, pressure has mounted for Barnhill and Johnson to be removed from office. Protesters gathered at the Glynn County Courthouse on May 16 to demand their resignations.
“Racism is real in America and racism is real in Brunswick, Georgia and we come today to send a message to the racists and the supremacist that we will fight you with everything that we have,” Rev. Timothy McDonald said at the protests, Reuters reported.
Investigations have ramped up since the video went viral
Two days after the state took over the case, the McMichaels were arrested and booked in a Glynn County jail. A day later, Georgia Bureau of Investigation Director Vic Reynolds announced that Bryan was also under investigation. He was charged with felony murder and criminal attempt to commit false imprisonment two weeks later.
On May 10, Georgia Attorney General Chris Carr announced he had asked the Department of Justice to investigate the handling of the case. “We are committed to a complete and transparent review of how the Ahmaud Arbery case was handled from the outset,” Carr said in a statement. “The family, the community and the state of Georgia deserve answers, and we will work with others in law enforcement at the state and federal level to find those answers.”
Meanwhile, Carr reassigned the case to a new district attorney, Joyette Holmes of Cobb County, which is northwest of Atlanta. In a statement, Carr said that while Durden had been executing his duties well, he believed someone with more resources was needed.
On June 24, Holmes announced an indictment with nine counts against each of the three defendants: malice murder, four counts of felony murder, two counts of aggravated assault, false imprisonment, and criminal attempt to commit false imprisonment.
Correction: An earlier version of this story miscategorized the incidents described by Larry English and Travis McMichael. They were described as thefts or burglaries.