vox--2020-10-28--It sure looks like Trump’s national security adviser is campaigning for him in swing states

Just a week before the election , Trump ’ s National Security Adviser Robert O ’ Brien is visiting key swing states in what appears to be a naked attempt to boost his boss ’ s reelection chances — a move some say is consistent with a broader administration campaign .
O ’ Brien traveled this week to Minnesota and Wisconsin , two important swing states , nominally to discuss the centrality of mining and supply chains to building weaponry .
But he went to the same locations — a copper-nickel mining region of Minnesota and the Fincantieri Marinette Marine @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and Vice President Pence had both also visited .
National Security Council spokesperson John Ullyot told me that during his travels in these states , O ’ Brien “ held important meetings ” crucial to understanding industry ’ s role in keeping America safe .
“ The important work of protecting our national security continues regardless of domestic political events , ” he said .
But a senior NSC official , who spoke to me on the condition of anonymity in order to discuss the matter freely , said O ’ Brien is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in Trump ’ s good graces .
The staffer said there ’ s no indication Trump ordered O ’ Brien to those states , but suggested the national security adviser knows he ’ s on a shortlist for defense secretary in the president ’ s second term .
This isn ’ t new behavior for O ’ Brien , either .
Last month , he spoke at Drake University in Iowa — an important state for the president to win — about Trump ’ s foreign policy .
While that in itself is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to do , O ’ Brien comments veered into the political .
“ The world is more peaceful and prosperous , we believe , because of the president ’ s policies , ” he stated , adding “ there ’ s more to come in a second Trump term.
” Donald Sherman , deputy director of the Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington ( CREW ) , a watchdog group , told me it ’ s quite clear O ’ Brien is stumping for Trump in his official capacity .
“ Folks @ @ @ @ @ @ @ t normally campaign at all , ” he said , “ because we don ’ t want national security and diplomacy politicized.
” Former secretaries of state Hillary Clinton and Colin Powell didn ’ t attend their party ’ s political conventions while they served in their roles , for example .
It ’ d be one thing if it were just O ’ Brien doing this .
The problem is that it looks like many in the administration are shilling for the president close to the election — and using taxpayer funds @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of 1939 bars most federal civilian workers from engaging in overt partisan political activity — including openly supporting a candidate in a race or using an official capacity to stump for a politician .
Some Cabinet departments , including the State Department , augment these statutory limits with additional policies intended to maintain a clear wall of separation between partisan politics and nonpartisan government functions .
But Trump administration officials keep busting through that wall .
During the Republican National Convention in August , Secretary of State Mike Pompeo appeared in a short @ @ @ @ @ @ @ travel in Israel , using the backdrop of the holy city of Jerusalem to boost Trump ’ s reelection campaign .
His decision shattered years of precedent in which sitting Cabinet members , and especially high-profile ones like secretaries of state , don ’ t engage in openly partisan political activities .
It was a norm Pompeo ’ s predecessors in both Republican and Democratic administrations believed was important to uphold .
The Office of Special Counsel ( OSC ) , an independent federal watchdog that looks into alleged Hatch Act violations , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ speech , two leading House Democrats revealed on Tuesday .
And then there ’ s Agriculture Secretary Sonny Perdue , who in August turned an official taxpayer-funded event with food producers in North Carolina into an impromptu rally to support Trump ’ s reelection campaign .
According to a letter sent by six House Democrats to the department ’ s ethics chief , standing before the assembled crowd alongside Trump , Perdue told him : “ Mr .
President , as you saw those throngs of people lining both sides of the road @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Mills River here , those were those forgotten people that voted for you for 2016 .
And I ’ ve got better news for you : They and many others are gon na vote for you for four more years in 2020.
” This led to chants from the crowd of “ Four more years !
” The OSC in October concluded Perdue had violated the Hatch Act , and forced him to pay back the government for costs related to the event .
Sherman , the deputy director of CREW , said @ @ @ @ @ @ @ government does actually punish federal employees — even top ones — for violating the Hatch Act , even if the reprimand isn ’ t particularly severe .
Yet the Trump administration continues to act as if the restrictions on such activities by senior government officials don ’ t apply .
“ It seems obvious that the Trump administration has orchestrated a government wide-effort to use official resources to prop up his campaign , ” Sherman said .
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It ’ s essential that all Americans are able to access clear , concise information on what the outcome of the election could mean for their lives , and the lives of their families and communities .
That is our mission at Vox .
But our distinctive brand of explanatory journalism takes resources .
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Just a week before the election, Trump’s National Security Adviser Robert O’Brien is visiting key swing states in what appears to be a naked attempt to boost his boss’s reelection chances — a move some say is consistent with a broader administration campaign.
O’Brien traveled this week to Minnesota and Wisconsin, two important swing states, nominally to discuss the centrality of mining and supply chains to building weaponry. But he went to the same locations — a copper-nickel mining region of Minnesota and the Fincantieri Marinette Marine shipyard in Wisconsin — that President Trump and Vice President Pence had both also visited.
National Security Council spokesperson John Ullyot told me that during his travels in these states, O’Brien “held important meetings” crucial to understanding industry’s role in keeping America safe. “The important work of protecting our national security continues regardless of domestic political events,” he said.
But a senior NSC official, who spoke to me on the condition of anonymity in order to discuss the matter freely, said O’Brien is traveling to election hot spots to keep in Trump’s good graces. The staffer said there’s no indication Trump ordered O’Brien to those states, but suggested the national security adviser knows he’s on a shortlist for defense secretary in the president’s second term.
This isn’t new behavior for O’Brien, either.
Last month, he spoke at Drake University in Iowa — an important state for the president to win — about Trump’s foreign policy. While that in itself is not unusual for a national security adviser to do, O’Brien comments veered into the political. “The world is more peaceful and prosperous, we believe, because of the president’s policies,” he stated, adding “there’s more to come in a second Trump term.”
Donald Sherman, deputy director of the Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington (CREW), a watchdog group, told me it’s quite clear O’Brien is stumping for Trump in his official capacity.
“Folks in national security and diplomacy don’t normally campaign at all,” he said, “because we don’t want national security and diplomacy politicized.” Former secretaries of state Hillary Clinton and Colin Powell didn’t attend their party’s political conventions while they served in their roles, for example.
It’d be one thing if it were just O’Brien doing this. The problem is that it looks like many in the administration are shilling for the president close to the election — and using taxpayer funds to do so.
Top Trump officials are openly violating the Hatch Act
The Hatch Act of 1939 bars most federal civilian workers from engaging in overt partisan political activity — including openly supporting a candidate in a race or using an official capacity to stump for a politician. Some Cabinet departments, including the State Department, augment these statutory limits with additional policies intended to maintain a clear wall of separation between partisan politics and nonpartisan government functions.
But Trump administration officials keep busting through that wall.
During the Republican National Convention in August, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo appeared in a short, prerecorded video produced while on official travel in Israel, using the backdrop of the holy city of Jerusalem to boost Trump’s reelection campaign.
His decision shattered years of precedent in which sitting Cabinet members, and especially high-profile ones like secretaries of state, don’t engage in openly partisan political activities. It was a norm Pompeo’s predecessors in both Republican and Democratic administrations believed was important to uphold.
From Jerusalem, the City of David — see you soon! pic.twitter.com/KNPTIXfK0K — Mike Pompeo (@mikepompeo) August 26, 2020
The Office of Special Counsel (OSC), an independent federal watchdog that looks into alleged Hatch Act violations, is now investigating Pompeo for giving the speech, two leading House Democrats revealed on Tuesday.
And then there’s Agriculture Secretary Sonny Perdue, who in August turned an official taxpayer-funded event with food producers in North Carolina into an impromptu rally to support Trump’s reelection campaign.
According to a letter sent by six House Democrats to the department’s ethics chief, standing before the assembled crowd alongside Trump, Perdue told him: “Mr. President, as you saw those throngs of people lining both sides of the road from the airport all the way to Mills River here, those were those forgotten people that voted for you for 2016. And I’ve got better news for you: They and many others are gonna vote for you for four more years in 2020.”
This led to chants from the crowd of “Four more years!”
The OSC in October concluded Perdue had violated the Hatch Act, and forced him to pay back the government for costs related to the event.
Sherman, the deputy director of CREW, said the Perdue example makes clear the US government does actually punish federal employees — even top ones — for violating the Hatch Act, even if the reprimand isn’t particularly severe.
Yet the Trump administration continues to act as if the restrictions on such activities by senior government officials don’t apply. “It seems obvious that the Trump administration has orchestrated a government wide-effort to use official resources to prop up his campaign,” Sherman said.


vox--2020-10-29--Why LGBTQ rights hinge on the definition of “sex”

The Civil Rights Act of 1964 was originally meant to prohibit discrimination on the basis of race , color , national origin , and religion .
But in a political maneuver meant to make the bill so unpopular it wouldn ’ t pass , the word “ sex ” was added .
The strategy didn ’ t work , and sex discrimination became illegal , opening the doors for women across the country to sue for workplace sexism .
But it also set off another fight : to expand the definition of sex discrimination to be inclusive of LGBTQ Americans @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ t explicitly included in federal anti-discrimination laws , even though 27 states offer some kind of protections against discrimination based on these factors .
( Twenty-three states don ’ t offer any protections at all . )
This patchwork system of laws is why activists and politicians have tried to pass the Equality Act , which would extend civil rights protections to LGBTQ people at the federal level .
But absent congressional legislation , LGBTQ Americans have had to wage this battle in the courts .
Though the Supreme Court decided in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ apply to transgender and queer Americans , the Trump administration has seemingly come to a different conclusion — and that means there are huge stakes for LGBTQ rights in the 2020 election .
This video is the eighth in our series on the 2020 election .
We aren ’ t covering the horse race ; instead , we want to explain the stakes of the election through the issues that matter most to you .
You can find this video and all of Vox ’ s videos on YouTube .
And if you @ @ @ @ @ @ @ journalism , you can become a member of the Vox Video Lab on YouTube .
Will you help keep Vox free for all ?
The United States is in the middle of one of the most consequential presidential elections of our lifetimes .
It ’ s essential that all Americans are able to access clear , concise information on what the outcome of the election could mean for their lives , and the lives of their families and communities .
That is our mission at Vox .
But our distinctive brand of explanatory @ @ @ @ @ @ @ economy and the news advertising market recovers , your support will be a critical part of sustaining our resource-intensive work .
If you have already contributed , thank you .
If you haven ’ t , please consider helping everyone understand this presidential election : Contribute today from as little as $ 3 .

The Civil Rights Act of 1964 was originally meant to prohibit discrimination on the basis of race, color, national origin, and religion. But in a political maneuver meant to make the bill so unpopular it wouldn’t pass, the word “sex” was added. The strategy didn’t work, and sex discrimination became illegal, opening the doors for women across the country to sue for workplace sexism.
But it also set off another fight: to expand the definition of sex discrimination to be inclusive of LGBTQ Americans. Gender identity and sexual orientation aren’t explicitly included in federal anti-discrimination laws, even though 27 states offer some kind of protections against discrimination based on these factors. (Twenty-three states don’t offer any protections at all.) This patchwork system of laws is why activists and politicians have tried to pass the Equality Act, which would extend civil rights protections to LGBTQ people at the federal level.
But absent congressional legislation, LGBTQ Americans have had to wage this battle in the courts. Though the Supreme Court decided in June that the Civil Rights Act does apply to transgender and queer Americans, the Trump administration has seemingly come to a different conclusion — and that means there are huge stakes for LGBTQ rights in the 2020 election.
This video is the eighth in our series on the 2020 election. We aren’t covering the horse race; instead, we want to explain the stakes of the election through the issues that matter most to you.
You can find this video and all of Vox’s videos on YouTube. And if you’re interested in supporting our video journalism, you can become a member of the Vox Video Lab on YouTube.
ntribute today from as little as $3.


vox--2020-10-29--One Good Thing: The sweet, animated melancholy of Kiki’s Delivery Service

One Good Thing is Vox ’ s recommendations series .
In each edition , we ’ ll tell you about something from the world of culture that we think you should check out .
This week , in honor of Halloween , we ’ re summoning five recommendations involving witches .
The mood swings , the acne , the awkwardness , the loneliness : There is no good advice for how to survive the many inevitable plagues on our teenage years .
But Kiki , the teenage witch at the center of Studio Ghibli ’ s masterful animated film Kiki @ @ @ @ @ @ @ stellar example of how to make it through the terrible teen years that will resonate even if puberty is way behind you .
( And it may even become your favorite movie of all time , if you ’ re like me , who has loved this movie since she was five years old . )
Kiki suffers through age 13 with a beautiful dose of literal magic , dangling the promise of something fantastical in front of a powerful coming-of-age story .
The anime film was released in 1989 , just ahead @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that focused on teenage girls .
Kiki did the whole figuring-herself-out thing first — way before Britney Spears came along and made the sentiment of “ I ’ m Not a Girl , Not Yet a Woman ” so catchy and radio-friendly .
Kiki ’ s Delivery Service operates on two levels : First , it ’ s a delightful film about the adventures of a young witch .
Kiki ’ s learning how to ride her broom , making friends with humans instead of only hanging out with her black cat , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ talent is .
Kiki hails from a town where every woman is a witch , and in her world , formal witch training starts at age 13 .
Girls are given a broom and a black dress ; then , they ’ re off on their own to find a witch-free city or town where they feel they will be able to adequately challenge themselves to master their magic .
And in the process , they must hone a special skill that best suits their personality and particular witching abilities .
Once Kiki @ @ @ @ @ @ @ heard tell of witches , she spends a lot of time trying to win people over , all while banging into walls and failing to gather her inner magical powers to get her broom flying .
Her trials and errors can be funny to watch , but they ’ re also dreamy to think about : What might it be like to be in her shoes and learning how to fly ?
Kiki ’ s training quest is exciting to watch for anyone who likes magic and broomsticks and black dresses , although @ @ @ @ @ @ @ witchiness isn ’ t like that of , say , The Wizard of Oz or Halloweentown .
( A closer corollary might be the original Sabrina the Teenage Witch TV series on ABC , but Sabrina was way more otherworldly and boy-crazy . )
Instead , Kiki is a mostly normal little girl who also inherited the ability to fly through the air from her mother .
In this world , the ability to perform magic is a female trait ; we don ’ t meet any male witches or wizards or warlocks @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are more low-key than those of other witching tales , that magic feels empowering and beautiful and mystical .
Which is where the second , stronger level of Kiki ’ s Delivery Service lies .
Kiki wants to be like her mother , which means she wants to be a grown-up , powerful witch , and quickly .
But there is no speeding through age 13 , and figuring out what kind of magic she ’ s good at takes Kiki much longer than she thinks it ought to .
Her titular delivery @ @ @ @ @ @ @ gifts and packages via her broomstick — is a way to both get to know people in the seaside town she ’ s landed in and a chance to flex her flying muscles .
But she succeeds only thanks to the help of different ( non-witch ) maternal figures who enter her life throughout the film .
From a pregnant baker who takes her in , to a kind old woman who becomes Kiki ’ s surrogate grandmother ( especially after we find out the woman ’ s own granddaughter is just the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on the kindness of other women .
Accepting the wisdom and guidance of other women is an important part of growing into one , even if much of the journey is personal .
What makes Kiki ’ s Delivery Service haunting isn ’ t when Kiki ’ s magic fails her and she fears that she has lost her ability to fly forever .
It ’ s the emotional aftermath : None of her non-witch , older lady friends can help Kiki get her powers back .
She must develop her own self-confidence @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , and build a belief in herself and her strength .
These are tremendous asks of a teenage girl , and the solutions are complex and unpredictable .
Watching Kiki figure out how to face challenges and overcome them — whether they ’ re magical or not — is what makes this film so beautiful .
Kiki ’ s Delivery Service might not be the prototypical witch movie for someone in the Halloween mood .
It ’ s so much more than that : It is a romantic , unforgettable journey into the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ freaked out about growing up knows too well .
Kiki ’ s Delivery Service is available to stream on HBO Max .
Help keep Vox free for all Millions turn to Vox each month to understand what ’ s happening in the news , from the coronavirus crisis to a racial reckoning to what is , quite possibly , the most consequential presidential election of our lifetimes .
Our mission has never been more vital than it is in this moment : to empower you through understanding .
But our distinctive brand of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the economy and the news advertising market recovers , your support will be a critical part of sustaining our resource-intensive work .
If you have already contributed , thank you .
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The mood swings, the acne, the awkwardness, the loneliness: There is no good advice for how to survive the many inevitable plagues on our teenage years. But Kiki, the teenage witch at the center of Studio Ghibli’s masterful animated film Kiki’s Delivery Service, provides a stellar example of how to make it through the terrible teen years that will resonate even if puberty is way behind you. (And it may even become your favorite movie of all time, if you’re like me, who has loved this movie since she was five years old.)
Kiki suffers through age 13 with a beautiful dose of literal magic, dangling the promise of something fantastical in front of a powerful coming-of-age story. The anime film was released in 1989, just ahead of a glut of 1990s pop culture that focused on teenage girls. Kiki did the whole figuring-herself-out thing first — way before Britney Spears came along and made the sentiment of “I’m Not a Girl, Not Yet a Woman” so catchy and radio-friendly.
Related The 9 films that explain the legendary Studio Ghibli
Kiki’s Delivery Service operates on two levels: First, it’s a delightful film about the adventures of a young witch. Kiki’s learning how to ride her broom, making friends with humans instead of only hanging out with her black cat, and figuring out what her special magical talent is. Kiki hails from a town where every woman is a witch, and in her world, formal witch training starts at age 13. Girls are given a broom and a black dress; then, they’re off on their own to find a witch-free city or town where they feel they will be able to adequately challenge themselves to master their magic. And in the process, they must hone a special skill that best suits their personality and particular witching abilities.
Once Kiki chooses a place where folks have only heard tell of witches, she spends a lot of time trying to win people over, all while banging into walls and failing to gather her inner magical powers to get her broom flying. Her trials and errors can be funny to watch, but they’re also dreamy to think about: What might it be like to be in her shoes and learning how to fly?
Kiki’s training quest is exciting to watch for anyone who likes magic and broomsticks and black dresses, although director Hayao Miyazaki’s portrayal of witchiness isn’t like that of, say, The Wizard of Oz or Halloweentown. (A closer corollary might be the original Sabrina the Teenage Witch TV series on ABC, but Sabrina was way more otherworldly and boy-crazy.) Instead, Kiki is a mostly normal little girl who also inherited the ability to fly through the air from her mother. In this world, the ability to perform magic is a female trait; we don’t meet any male witches or wizards or warlocks. Even if the characters’ powers are more low-key than those of other witching tales, that magic feels empowering and beautiful and mystical.
Which is where the second, stronger level of Kiki’s Delivery Service lies. Kiki wants to be like her mother, which means she wants to be a grown-up, powerful witch, and quickly. But there is no speeding through age 13, and figuring out what kind of magic she’s good at takes Kiki much longer than she thinks it ought to. Her titular delivery service — she starts a business transporting gifts and packages via her broomstick — is a way to both get to know people in the seaside town she’s landed in and a chance to flex her flying muscles. But she succeeds only thanks to the help of different (non-witch) maternal figures who enter her life throughout the film. From a pregnant baker who takes her in, to a kind old woman who becomes Kiki’s surrogate grandmother (especially after we find out the woman’s own granddaughter is just the worst teen), Kiki ekes by on the kindness of other women.
Accepting the wisdom and guidance of other women is an important part of growing into one, even if much of the journey is personal. What makes Kiki’s Delivery Service haunting isn’t when Kiki’s magic fails her and she fears that she has lost her ability to fly forever. It’s the emotional aftermath: None of her non-witch, older lady friends can help Kiki get her powers back. She must develop her own self-confidence, learn to understand her own emotions, and build a belief in herself and her strength. These are tremendous asks of a teenage girl, and the solutions are complex and unpredictable. Watching Kiki figure out how to face challenges and overcome them — whether they’re magical or not — is what makes this film so beautiful.
Kiki’s Delivery Service might not be the prototypical witch movie for someone in the Halloween mood. It’s so much more than that: It is a romantic, unforgettable journey into the magical unknown that anyone who has ever freaked out about growing up knows too well.
Kiki’s Delivery Service is available to stream on HBO Max. For more recommendations from the world of culture, check out the One Good Thing archives.


vox--2020-10-29--Young Latinx voters could be the ones who finally flip Arizona

Share All sharing options for : Young Latinx voters could be the ones who finally flip Arizona Kassandra Alvarez remembers the anxiety she felt growing up in Arizona .
Alvarez , 27 , was in high school when the Arizona state legislature passed SB 1070 — one of the most restrictive anti-immigration bills in the country .
The legislation , which was approved in 2010 , enabled police to demand federal registration papers from anyone who they believed was an undocumented immigrant .
Those who didn ’ t have papers could be detained or even deported .
Alvarez ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ undocumented at the time , were forced to make a contingency plan .
“ When SB 1070 passed , you had to get training on how to protect yourself , ” she told Vox .
“ There was no other way to survive in Arizona.
” After the bill — which became known as the “ show me your papers ” law — went into effect , many Arizonans left the state out of fear .
But Alvarez ’ s family decided to stay : If any of them got stopped , they @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ My friend was pulled over with a broken taillight and he was put in jail , ” Alvarez recalls .
Used to intimidate thousands of immigrants in the state , SB 1070 was a turning point for growing engagement of Latinx voters in Arizona , according to local organizers .
Ten years later , many Arizonans who were children when SB 1070 passed are now eligible voters , eager to vote out President Donald Trump , who ’ s promoted similarly racist policies .
Much of Trump ’ s presidency has built @ @ @ @ @ @ @ law : He has described Mexican Americans as “ criminals ” and “ rapists , ” promised to build a wall along the southern border , and enforced a zero-tolerance immigration policy that ’ s led to thousands of family separations , among a long list of discriminatory actions .
“ What has pushed me the farthest away is he ’ s become a symbol of hate for my community , ” says Alvarez .
“ The worry of whether my sisters are going to be able to apply for DACA again has @ @ @ @ @ @ @ long .
When do we get to breathe ?
” SB 1070 is still on the books but several of its main provisions were overturned by the Supreme Court in 2012 — and weakened by the Arizona state government in a 2016 settlement .
Young Latinx voters who were activated by SB 1070 , like Alvarez , could be a deciding factor in flipping the state for Democrats .
In 2016 , Trump won Arizona by just 3.5 points — and a little over 91,000 votes .
According to data from advocacy group @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in Arizona reached voting age between 2018 and 2020 alone .
And Latinx voters ’ overall share of the state ’ s electorate has grown from 19.6 percent in 2016 to 24.6 percent in 2020 .
While Latinx voters are no monolith — one-fifth of Latinx Arizonans who responded to an October Unidos US poll said they ’ re backing Trump , for example — many younger voters lean more progressive , and a dedicated group of organizers has been working with their peers to oust the president .
After discovering in high @ @ @ @ @ @ @ became deeply involved in advocacy for immigrant rights and education access .
She now works in public relations for a community college in Phoenix , and recently served as a delegate for Sen. Bernie Sanders for the Democratic National Convention .
She ’ s among a group of younger voters who are increasingly politically mobilized .
“ I was 9 or 10 when SB 1070 passed .
I still remember it .
I remember the protests .
Seeing politicians attack people like us and our family members , ” says Jacob Martinez , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ America .
“ That was a big part of my growing up .
This is a chance for us to say , ‘ Not in our state .
We ’ re not letting this happen anymore.
’ ” The organizing movement that exploded after SB 1070 could be the same one that pushes Trump out There ’ s been a growing organizing movement in Arizona for decades , and local activists say SB 1070 was a real tipping point .
“ It not only galvanized Latinos and organizers , it energized people from @ @ @ @ @ @ @ University political science professor Lisa Magana .
In a direct response to SB 1070 , activists founded a grassroots movement called One Arizona .
This coalition — which now includes over 20 organizations — has been dedicated to registering people to vote , educating residents about civic engagement efforts like the census , and championing racial justice .
In 2018 , One Arizona registered 190,000 voters , and it nearly matched that number this cycle .
The effects of this movement have been wide-ranging .
Many of the early organizers during SB 1070 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to Melissa Armas , a coordinator for the advocacy group Aqui Se Vota .
They include Phoenix City Councilmember Carlos Garcia , state Rep. Raquel Teran and state Sen. Martin Quezada .
And voters in the state say it ’ s changed the way they talk about their own heritage and immigration in Arizona .
“ I am a proud daughter of immigrants .
Growing up in Arizona , you couldn ’ t express that you were part of the Latino community , ” says Priscilla Acosta , 28 .
While Trump ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of racist practices that former Arizona leaders like Sheriff Joe Arpaio became known for , the pushback to these discriminatory policies has grown since 2010 .
In 2016 , even as Trump was elected to the presidency , Arpaio — who was synonymous with targeting immigrants as Maricopa County Sheriff — lost his race for reelection , in large part due to organizers who mobilized against him .
Most recently , Arpaio also lost the Republican primary for the job this year .
The surge in activism since SB 1070 has coincided , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in the state .
In 2008 , roughly 796,000 Latinx residents were eligible voters , while nearly 1.2 million are this year .
Exit polls have found that Latinx voters predominantly backed the Democratic candidate in recent elections : 70 percent supported Sen. Kyrsten Sinema in 2018 , and 61 percent supported Hillary Clinton in 2016 .
According to the October Unidos US poll , 67 percent of registered Latinx voters in Arizona say they support Biden .
Latinx voter turnout also surged in Arizona during the 2018 midterms , and that momentum @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
“ There were concerns that Latino voters wouldn ’ t turn out in 2018 , and we saw record numbers , ” says Latino Decisions researcher Edward Vargas .
During the midterms , Latinx turnout was up 96 percent compared to 2014 , according to Latino Decisions .
“ The Latinx vote definitely has the power to swing this election , ” says Lexy Reyelts , an Arizona organizer for NextGen America .
Trump ’ s treatment of immigration and health care have disproportionately affected members of the Latinx community Both the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s presidency have had major effects on members of the Latinx community .
“ When I was younger , it felt like the wild , wild West .
You could have people come to the grocery story and not come back , ” says Acosta .
“ That ’ s what I ’ m fearful of in the Trump administration , that all that progress we ’ ve finally done will get rolled back.
” Trump has actively targeted immigrants repeatedly , including Mexican Americans , who make up a large proportion @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and lean more Democratic on average .
Whether it ’ s comments he ’ s made about how a judge wouldn ’ t be impartial to his case because of the judge ’ s Mexican heritage — or his repeated use of the term “ bad hombre ” to invoke an unseen threat , Trump is someone that voters describe as normalizing racism toward the Latinx community .
Policies that Trump has pushed include repeated efforts to end the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals ( DACA ) program — which shielded young unauthorized @ @ @ @ @ @ @ an ICE hotline where people can report alleged crimes by immigrants , and stringent restrictions on asylum seekers .
“ As a DACA recipient , it ’ s hard to advocate for yourself when there ’ s racist policies in place and , bottom line , they don ’ t want you here , ” says Ramon Chavez , 27 , who adds that a path to citizenship for DACA recipients has been among the chief issues where he ’ d like to see a clear plan .
“ It ’ s tough @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , ” he says .
Health care is also a top issue for many Latinx voters , especially in the wake of Trump ’ s botched handling of the Covid-19 pandemic , which disproportionately affected people of color — including in Arizona .
“ Latinx people were dying at higher rates than white people during the pandemic , ” says Reyelts .
According to an analysis by APM Research Lab , there have been 77 deaths per 100,000 Latinx residents in the state , while there have been 62 deaths per 100,000 white @ @ @ @ @ @ @ also emphasized that they were focused on preserving the Affordable Care Act , which Trump has said he ’ d like to repeal while offering no clear proposal for how he ’ d replace it .
“ For the most part , Covid-19 and the cost of health care are overwhelmingly top issues , ” says Vargas .
Biden isn ’ t necessarily many voters ’ first choice , but some see him as their only one Younger Latinx voters say they ’ re backing Biden not because he ’ s their top @ @ @ @ @ @ @ only one .
“ He ’ s not my first choice , or my second , but I think he ’ s someone we can work with , ” says Alvarez .
Many young Latinx voters I spoke with cited Biden ’ s track record on criminal justice reform — including his work on the 1994 crime bill — as well as his past stance on sanctuary cities as reasons they aren ’ t enthused about his candidacy .
Many do view him , however , as a far superior alternative to Trump @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Biden has any transformational ideas about where to take this country , but he feels like someone for the time being who can stop the bleeding , ” says Gregorio Montes De Oca , 32 .
Multiple voters told Vox that they felt like Biden ’ s outreach to Latinx voters in the state has been lacking , however .
“ There are people that think the Latinx vote is being taken for granted , ” says Chavez .
Biden ’ s campaign emphasizes that it ’ s been dedicated to connecting with @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the candidate and vice presidential nominee Sen. Kamala Harris visiting the state in recent weeks .
“ Our team has made historic investments in reaching Latino voters by building a culturally competent program that has prioritized building relationships with community leaders , organizing every region by hosting social distanced events and daily phonebanks , and a robust bilingual digital , mail and paid media program to reach every voter across the state , ” Luz Jimenez , Arizona Deputy Press Secretary for Latino Media said in a statement .
A Trump campaign spokesperson @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a “ permanent presence ” in state since 2016 and invested in regional ad buys , voter registration drives , and Zoom meet-ups aimed at Latinx voters .
Trump and his surrogates have paid multiple visits to the state as well .
As Vox ’ s Nicole Narea has reported , Biden ’ s limited investment in Latinx voters has worried political observers including Chuck Rocha , a former senior campaign adviser for Sanders , who was concerned that he hadn ’ t committed more resources to regional organizations .
In Arizona specifically @ @ @ @ @ @ @ has a potential weakness with male voters under 50 , who are more likely to view Trump ’ s handling of the economy favorably .
An Equis Research poll in September found that 42 percent of young Latinx men were considering Trump for the presidency , compared to 16 percent of young women , 24 percent of older women , and 34 percent of older men .
According to an October Alliance for Youth survey , 33 percent of young Latinx voters in battleground states had not been contacted by the Biden campaign @ @ @ @ @ @ @ I ’ ve seen him reaching out to the Latinx community in particular , ” says graduate student Destina Bermejo , 23 , an Arizonan who ’ s actively against Trump but still wary of Biden .
Bermejo tells Vox that she was unsure whether , given his prior record , she could trust Biden to implement the changes she ’ d like to see when it came to immigration policy .
She ’ d like to see more detail , for example , on how he ’ d prevent abuses by the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ was criticized for its detention policies during the Obama administration .
“ Why am I going to trust this white man who is supposed to be representing the Latino community ?
” she asks .
“ I hate Trump , but it doesn ’ t mean I like Biden , either.
” Voters instead said that the energy they saw in state — and found most inspiring — was coming predominantly from the movement built by regional leaders .
“ I ’ m getting to know people in my own community to build @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Most emphasized , too , that their vote and their support for Biden was the only way to go right now .
“ For myself , my sisters are DACA recipients , my dad is undocumented , it ’ s really out of survival , ” says Alvarez .
Will you help keep Vox free for all ?
The United States is in the middle of one of the most consequential presidential elections of our lifetimes .
It ’ s essential that all Americans are able to access clear , concise information on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ mean for their lives , and the lives of their families and communities .
That is our mission at Vox .
But our distinctive brand of explanatory journalism takes resources .
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Share All sharing options for: Young Latinx voters could be the ones who finally flip Arizona
This is the third in a series of stories looking at the people who could cast the most decisive votes in the 2020 election. You can read Ella Nilsen’s story on suburban women here and Dylan Scott’s story on Rust Belt workers here.
Kassandra Alvarez remembers the anxiety she felt growing up in Arizona.
Alvarez, 27, was in high school when the Arizona state legislature passed SB 1070 — one of the most restrictive anti-immigration bills in the country. The legislation, which was approved in 2010, enabled police to demand federal registration papers from anyone who they believed was an undocumented immigrant. Once approached, those who didn’t have papers could be detained or even deported.
“When SB 1070 passed, you had to get training on how to protect yourself,” says Alvarez, whose entire family was undocumented at the time. “There was no other way to survive in Arizona.”
The bill — which became known as the “show me your papers” law — led to thousands of Arizonans leaving the state, while those who stayed feared targeting by police. Alvarez, along with her parents and sisters, was among those forced to make a contingency plan: If any of them got stopped, they would call a local lawmaker.
“My friend was pulled over with a broken taillight and he was put in jail,” Alvarez recalls.
Used to intimidate and profile immigrants in the state, SB 1070 was a turning point for growing engagement of Latinx voters in Arizona, according to local organizers. Ten years later, many Arizonans who were children when the bill passed are now eligible voters, eager to vote out President Donald Trump, who’s promoted similarly racist policies.
Much of Trump’s presidency has built on the same xenophobia as the Arizona law: He has described Mexican Americans as “criminals” and “rapists,” promised to build a wall along the southern border, and enforced a zero-tolerance immigration policy that’s led to thousands of family separations, among a long list of discriminatory actions.
“What has pushed me the farthest away is he’s become a symbol of hate for my community,” says Alvarez. “The worry of whether my sisters are going to be able to apply for DACA again has been hanging over our heads for so long. When do we get to breathe?”
SB 1070 is still on the books but much of it was overturned by the Supreme Court in 2012 — and further weakened by the Arizona state government in a 2016 settlement.
Young Latinx voters who were activated by SB 1070, like Alvarez, could be a deciding factor in flipping the state for Democrats. In 2016, Trump won Arizona by just 3.5 points — and a little over 91,000 votes. According to data from advocacy group Mi Familia Vota, 103,000 Latinx people in Arizona reached voting age between 2018 and 2020 alone. And Latinx voters’ overall share of the state’s electorate has grown from 19.6 percent in 2016 to 24.6 percent in 2020.
While Latinx voters are no monolith — one-fifth of Latinx Arizonans who responded to an October Unidos US poll said they’re backing Trump, for example — many younger voters lean more progressive, and a dedicated group of organizers has been working with their peers to oust the president.
After discovering in high school that she was undocumented, Alvarez became deeply involved in advocacy for immigrant rights and education access. She now works in public relations for a community college in Phoenix, and recently served as a delegate for Sen. Bernie Sanders for the Democratic National Convention. She’s among a group of younger voters who have become politically mobilized.
“I was 9 or 10 when SB 1070 passed. I still remember it. I remember the protests. Seeing politicians attack people like us and our family members,” says Jacob Martinez, 19, an Arizona organizer for NextGen America. “That was a big part of my growing up. This is a chance for us to say, ‘Not in our state. We’re not letting this happen anymore.’”
The organizing movement that exploded after SB 1070 could be the same one that pushes Trump out
There’s been a growing organizing movement in Arizona for decades, and local activists say SB 1070 was a real tipping point.
“It not only galvanized Latinos and organizers, it energized people from other states,” says Arizona State University political science professor Lisa Magana. In a direct response to SB 1070, activists founded a grassroots movement called One Arizona. This coalition — which now includes over 20 organizations — has been dedicated to registering people to vote, educating residents about civic engagement efforts like the census, and championing racial justice. In 2018, One Arizona registered 190,000 voters, and it nearly matched that number this cycle.
The effects of this movement have been wide-ranging. Many of the early organizers during SB 1070 have now become state legislators, according to Melissa Armas, a coordinator for the advocacy group Aqui Se Vota. They include Phoenix City Councilmember Carlos Garcia, state Rep. Raquel Teran and state Sen. Martin Quezada. And voters in the state say it’s changed the way they talk about their own heritage and immigration in Arizona.
“I am a proud daughter of immigrants. Growing up in Arizona, you couldn’t express that you were part of the Latino community,” says Priscilla Acosta, 28.
While Trump’s presidency has promoted the same type of racist practices that former Arizona leaders like Sheriff Joe Arpaio became known for, the pushback to these discriminatory policies has grown since 2010. In 2016, even as Trump was elected to the presidency, Arpaio — who was synonymous with targeting immigrants as Maricopa County Sheriff — lost his race for reelection, in large part due to organizers who mobilized against him. Most recently, Arpaio also lost the Republican primary for the job this year.
The surge in activism since SB 1070 has coincided, too, with a massive demographic shift in the state. In 2008, roughly 796,000 Latinx residents were eligible voters, while nearly 1.2 million are this year. Exit polls have found that Latinx voters predominantly backed the Democratic candidate in recent elections: 70 percent supported Sen. Kyrsten Sinema in 2018, and 61 percent supported Hillary Clinton in 2016. According to the October Unidos US poll, 67 percent of registered Latinx voters in Arizona say they support Biden.
Latinx voter turnout also surged in Arizona during the 2018 midterms, and that momentum is only expected to continue this cycle. “There were concerns that Latino voters wouldn’t turn out in 2018, and we saw record numbers,” says Latino Decisions researcher Edward Vargas. During the midterms, Latinx turnout was up 96 percent compared to 2014, according to Latino Decisions.
“The Latinx vote definitely has the power to swing this election,” says Lexy Reyelts, an Arizona organizer for NextGen America.
Trump’s treatment of immigration and health care have disproportionately affected members of the Latinx community
Both the immigration and health care policies of Trump’s presidency have had major effects on members of the Latinx community.
“When I was younger, it felt like the wild, wild West. You could have people come to the grocery story and not come back,” says Acosta. “That’s what I’m fearful of in the Trump administration, that all that progress we’ve finally done will get rolled back.”
Trump has actively targeted immigrants repeatedly, including Mexican Americans, who make up a large proportion of the Latinx electorate in Arizona, and lean more Democratic on average. Whether it’s comments he’s made about how a judge wouldn’t be impartial to his case because of the judge’s Mexican heritage — or his repeated use of the term “bad hombre” to invoke an unseen threat, Trump is someone that voters describe as normalizing racism toward the Latinx community.
Policies that Trump has pushed include repeated efforts to end the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) program — which shielded young unauthorized immigrants from deportation — as well as an ICE hotline where people can report alleged crimes by immigrants, and stringent restrictions on asylum seekers.
“As a DACA recipient, it’s hard to advocate for yourself when there’s racist policies in place and, bottom line, they don’t want you here,” says Ramon Chavez, 27, who adds that a path to citizenship for DACA recipients has been among the chief issues where he’d like to see a clear plan. “It’s tough to live two years at a time,” he says.
Health care is also a top issue for many Latinx voters, especially in the wake of Trump’s botched handling of the Covid-19 pandemic, which disproportionately affected people of color — including in Arizona. “Latinx people were dying at higher rates than white people during the pandemic,” says Reyelts. According to an analysis by APM Research Lab, there have been 77 deaths per 100,000 Latinx residents in the state, while there have been 62 deaths per 100,000 white residents in the state.
Multiple voters also emphasized that they were focused on preserving the Affordable Care Act, which Trump has said he’d like to repeal while offering no clear proposal for how he’d replace it. “For the most part, Covid-19 and the cost of health care are overwhelmingly top issues,” says Vargas.
Biden isn’t necessarily many voters’ first choice, but some see him as their only one
Younger Latinx voters say they’re backing Biden not because he’s their top pick but because he’s their only one.
“He’s not my first choice, or my second, but I think he’s someone we can work with,” says Alvarez. Many young Latinx voters I spoke with cited Biden’s track record on criminal justice reform — including his work on the 1994 crime bill — as well as his past stance on sanctuary cities as reasons they aren’t enthused about his candidacy. Many do view him, however, as a far superior alternative to Trump.
“I don’t think Biden has any transformational ideas about where to take this country, but he feels like someone for the time being who can stop the bleeding,” says Gregorio Montes De Oca, 32.
Multiple voters told Vox that they felt like Biden’s outreach to Latinx voters in the state has been lacking, however. “There are people that think the Latinx vote is being taken for granted,” says Chavez.
Biden’s campaign emphasizes that it’s been dedicated to connecting with Arizonans on different platforms, with both the candidate and vice presidential nominee Sen. Kamala Harris visiting the state in recent weeks.
“Our team has made historic investments in reaching Latino voters by building a culturally competent program that has prioritized building relationships with community leaders, organizing every region by hosting social distanced events and daily phonebanks, and a robust bilingual digital, mail and paid media program to reach every voter across the state,” Luz Jimenez, Arizona Deputy Press Secretary for Latino Media said in a statement.
A Trump campaign spokesperson also noted that it’s established a “permanent presence” in state since 2016 and invested in regional ad buys, voter registration drives, and Zoom meet-ups aimed at Latinx voters. Trump and his surrogates have paid multiple visits to the state as well.
As Vox’s Nicole Narea has reported, Biden’s limited investment in Latinx voters has worried political observers including Chuck Rocha, a former senior campaign adviser for Sanders, who was concerned that he hadn’t committed more resources to regional organizations. In Arizona specifically, polling has also found that Biden has a potential weakness with male voters under 50, who are more likely to view Trump’s handling of the economy favorably.
An Equis Research poll in September found that 42 percent of young Latinx men were considering Trump for the presidency, compared to 16 percent of young women, 24 percent of older women, and 34 percent of older men. According to an October Alliance for Youth survey, 33 percent of young Latinx voters in battleground states had not been contacted by the Biden campaign.
“I’m not sure I’ve seen him reaching out to the Latinx community in particular,” says graduate student Destina Bermejo, 23, an Arizonan who’s actively against Trump but still wary of Biden.
Bermejo tells Vox that she was unsure whether, given his prior record, she could trust Biden to implement the changes she’d like to see when it came to immigration policy. She wanted more detail, for example, on how he’d prevent abuses by the Immigration and Customs Enforcement Agency, which was criticized for its detention policies during the Obama administration.
“Why am I going to trust this white man who is supposed to be representing the Latino community?” she asks. “I hate Trump, but it doesn’t mean I like Biden, either.”
Voters instead said that the energy they saw in state — and found most inspiring — was coming predominantly from the movement built by regional leaders. “I’m getting to know people in my own community to build something better,” said Bermejo. Most emphasized, too, that their vote and their support for Biden was the only way to go right now.
“For myself, my sisters are DACA recipients, my dad is undocumented, it’s really out of survival,” says Alvarez.


vox--2020-10-29--Georgia’s two super-competitive Senate races, explained

Georgia , a once-solidly Republican state , has not one but two competitive Senate races this year .
Driven by booming and quickly-diversifying suburbs outside Atlanta , and suburban women fleeing the Republican party under President Donald Trump , these trends could give Democrats Jon Ossoff and Rev .
Raphael Warnock a shot at winning .
“ The fact we ’ re even talking about a competitive race in Georgia tells you the impact of demographic change on American politics , ” Republican pollster Whit Ayres recently told Vox .
Ayres , for one , thinks traditionally southern states like @ @ @ @ @ @ @ years away from being true swing states .
But Democrats in the state aren ’ t so sure .
“ Our time is now , ” 2018 gubernatorial candidate Stacey Abrams , the founder of voting rights group Fair Fight , told Vox in an email interview .
“ We ’ re in a strong position ; our message to voters is that when we overwhelm the system with our voices , we will win.
” In one Senate race , Republican Sen. David Perdue faces Ossoff , who narrowly lost a 2017 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ flipped the next year .
Then there ’ s a less conventional — and far more crowded — special election race to replace retiring Republican Sen. Johnny Isakson .
A whopping 20 candidates running in the special election , but the three at the top are Republican incumbent Sen. Kelly Loeffler ( appointed to replace Isakson in 2019 ) , Democrat and senior pastor of the Ebenezer Baptist Church pastor Warnock , and conservative Rep. Doug Collins , who is running to Loeffler ’ s right .
If no candidate clears a threshold @ @ @ @ @ @ @ go to a federal runoff election , scheduled for January 5 , 2021 .
The special election is widely expected to go to a runoff .
Polls have shown Warnock in the lead , with Loeffler and Collins splitting the Republican vote , but no one close to 50 percent .
The regular election between Perdue and Ossoff is also incredibly tight ; a recent Atlanta Journal-Constitution poll showed Ossoff just one point ahead of the Republican incumbent — a statistical tie at 46 percent to 45 percent .
The same poll found @ @ @ @ @ @ @ as well .
Another recent New York Times/Siena College poll found Ossoff and Perdue tied at 43 percent each .
The big question in Georgia politics these days is not just whether Democrats can pull off a win — it ’ s also whether there will be two runoffs this winter .
For the “ special election , it ’ s a surety , ” said University of Georgia political science professor George Bullock .
“ For the other one , if indeed the polling is accurate , then I think it ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , Sen. Perdue gave a group of GOP activists an unvarnished warning about the coming election year .
“ Here ’ s the reality : The state of Georgia is in play , ” Perdue said on a call obtained by CNN .
“ The Democrats have made it that way.
” Perdue was initially considered one of the more insulated senators in a year where Republicans were defending a lot of territory .
Perdue is conservative and business-friendly , and a staunch defender of the president in a historically Republican state .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ of companies like Reebok and Dollar General , and lives in a gated community on Georgia ’ s ultra-wealthy Sea Island .
“ The fact we ’ re even talking about a competitive race in Georgia tells you the impact of demographic change on American politics ” “ He has been absent for six years , I mean completely absent , ” said Georgia state Sen. Jen Jordan , a Democrat .
“ No town halls , no public events , nothing .
It ’ s not like he ’ s at his @ @ @ @ @ @ @ started to appear in the spring , as polls showed the race between Perdue and investigative journalist and 2017 congressional candidate Jon Ossoff tightening .
“ From day one we ’ ve known that this will be one of the most competitive races in the country , ” Perdue campaign spokesman John Burke told Vox in a statement , adding , “ We are confident that Georgians will re-elect Sen. Perdue on November 3rd.
” Atlanta ’ s diversifying suburbs were already worrisome for Republicans .
The party is also watching as existing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ white suburban voters moving away from Trump , and increased turnout among Black voters .
“ Counties and suburbs of Atlanta are moving at light speed away from Republicans , ” said Cook Political Report Senate editor Jessica Taylor , who rates both Georgia races as tossups .
“ Trump has accelerated a more natural evolution , but that has made it hard.
” While Perdue has spent the race painting Ossoff as a “ socialist ” with a “ radical agenda , ” Ossoff has spent his campaign talking about anti-corruption reforms @ @ @ @ @ @ @ cost of health care .
Ossoff told Vox that if he ’ s elected , anti-corruption reforms — including a Constitutional amendment overturning Citizens United , a corporate PAC ban , and a ban on stock trading by sitting senators — will be his first priority in the Senate .
The third item is a direct shot at Perdue and Loeffler , both of whom have taken heat for stock trades made after they received classified briefings on the Covid-19 pandemic while they were in office .
Both have denied the allegations of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ were made by outside advisers , without their knowledge .
“ The necessity of anti-corruption reforms also cuts through the partisan divide because everyone recognizes the political system is corrupt , ” Ossoff said in an interview .
“ Everyone recognizes that it ’ s a systemic issue more than it ’ s a partisan issue .
The key is connecting it to people ’ s daily lives : The outrageous price of prescription drugs , the abuses that we face daily , from insurance companies , the way that polluters are empowered @ @ @ @ @ @ @ water.
” Beyond policy , Ossoff also gets a boost in Democratic circles from his 2017 congressional campaign in Georgia ’ s 6th Congressional district — a traditionally Republican district that ’ s part of Atlanta ’ s suburbs .
Even though Ossoff ultimately lost that race , multiple sources told Vox that Ossoff ’ s 2017 race energized a contingent of disillusioned white suburban women and Black voters , and helped beef up Democratic organizing in the area .
Democrats flipped the district the following year , electing Democratic Rep. Lucy McBath @ @ @ @ @ @ @ wilderness since at least 2002 , ” Jordan told Vox .
“ No power , Republicans weren ’ t even being challenged .
Jon runs for this congressional [ seat ] and all of a sudden you see these women in the Atlanta suburbs coming out in droves to support him and work for him.
” Ossoff recognizes the changing demographics of the Atlanta suburbs are a growing source of energy for Democrats in state , combined with a “ massive ” investment in party infrastructure .
“ I was out marching with @ @ @ @ @ @ @ people of all backgrounds , races ages , from all regions participating , ” he told Vox .
“ This is driving the collapse of the GOP southern strategy , their approach to politics in the south since Nixon has been to divide voters along racial and cultural lines .
And now we have this multiracial coalition ... that GOP strategy is breaking down.
” Most Georgia politics observers expect we won ’ t know the winner of the special Senate election for a few more months .
The crowded field for the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ down to three people : Warnock , Loeffler , and Doug Collins , the ranking member of the House Judiciary Committee and a staunch Trump ally .
The Democratic side has mostly cleared for Warnock , but polls show Republican voters are split between Loeffler and Collins .
( Matt Lieberman , son of former vice presidential candidate and Sen. Joe Lieberman , is also running , but has seen his support disappear as the race heated up and Warnock was endorsed by party leaders including former President Barack Obama . )
The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ both Republicans at 32 percent , with Loeffler getting 23 percent of Republican support compared to 17 percent for Collins .
A couple surveys have shown Warnock inching into 40 percent territory , but the conventional wisdom among many is that he won ’ t be able to clear 50 percent by November 3 .
“ He is opening a lead over either of the Republicans , ” said Bullock , the University of Georgia professor .
Loeffler and Collins , on the other hand , appear to be splitting the Republican vote @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the vote for those two together , it comes close to equalling the vote for Perdue and the vote for Trump.
” For Warnock and whichever Republican emerges out of the special election , there ’ s an open question of whether voter enthusiasm will remain high in January .
Turnout will likely be lower then , and if Joe Biden wins the White House , Democrats run the risk of Republican turnout being energized to put a check on a Democratic president .
Appointed by Georgia Gov .
Brian Kemp in 2019 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the exodus of white suburban women from the Republican party , Loeffler has taken a hard right turn towards Trump — even advertising in an ad that she ’ s “ more conservative than Attila the Hun.
” Loeffler was recently endorsed by controversial Congressional candidate Marjorie Taylor Greene , who espouses the baseless “ Q Anon ” conspiracy theory .
If her original goal was to draw in disaffected suburban women , that might be more difficult .
( Loeffler ’ s campaign didn ’ t respond to Vox ’ s request @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ t really have a persona , ” said Jordan , the Democratic state senator .
“ She was known as being really rich and one of the owners of the WNBA ” team in Atlanta .
On the Democratic side , the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee early on backed Raphael Warnock , the senior pastor of the storied Ebenezer Baptist Church .
Warnock ’ s church has a storied legacy ; it ’ s where civil rights icon Martin Luther King Jr. served as pastor in the 1960s .
“ Georgia is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Jr. , ” Warnock told Vox in an interview .
“ It has long been the tip of the spear for change in America .
And I think that through this movement we ’ re building , it once again will be a central focus for that change.
” Even in 2020 , the fight for racial justice and civil rights has been difficult .
Georgia was the site of two shocking killings of black men this year alone : First , the shooting death of jogger Ahmaud Arbery in his neighborhood by @ @ @ @ @ @ @ police shooting of Rayshard Brooks a few weeks after George Floyd ’ s killing in Minneapolis .
Warnock delivered the eulogy for Brooks this summer .
“ It was one of the toughest things I ’ ve had to do in my ministry , ” he told Vox .
“ The thing that that I remember the most was talking to his eight-year-old daughter .
Earlier that day , she had been celebrating her eighth birthday party with her dad .
And from now on her birthday will be associated with his last @ @ @ @ @ @ @ any child to have to bear.
” Warnock said issues of racial justice are not just “ theoretical ” to him .
One of his early ads was about his experience at age 12 being dragged out of a store and accused of shoplifting , simply for having his hands in his pockets .
“ All these years later , while we have made considerable progress , we ’ re still fighting voter suppression and police brutality , ” Warnock told Vox .
“ What I ’ m most inspired by is the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ think that they ’ re justified in their discontent.
” The center of Georgia ’ s demographic change are Atlanta ’ s growing and diversifying suburbs .
Business is booming in Atlanta , and so is population .
Between 2010 and 2019 , the area ’ s population shot up from about 5.3 million people to over than 6 million , according to data from the US Census , reported by Curbed .
That growth put the Atlanta metro area fourth in growth nationwide , behind Houston and Dallas , Texas , and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Texas and Arizona are also considered Democratic targets this year ) .
“ Every area in metro Atlanta is growing , ” said state Rep. Angelika Kausche , a Democrat .
“ People come here for the education , for the schools , for the quality of life.
” That has brought legions of diverse , younger voters to Atlanta ’ s metro area .
Amid the influx to the Atlanta suburbs , political observers in Georgia have been watching elections get closer and closer .
In the 2018 governor ’ s race @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Brian Kemp by a little more than 50,000 votes — a scare for Georgia Republicans .
“ Stacey Abrams lost by less than 55,000 votes out of 4 million in an election , which her opponent was also the umpire , ” Warnock said .
“ With his thumb firmly on the scale , he barely squeaked by less than 55,000 votes.
” Abrams ’ s group Fair Fight and other voting rights groups like the New Georgia Project have been putting a ton of effort into registering and turning out Black voters @ @ @ @ @ @ @ state has already hit record registration levels , with about 7.6 million voters registered .
And since early voting started , over 2.7 million voters have cast ballots .
“ We ’ re going to have record turnout , ” said Abrams .
“ We ’ ve already had half a million more Georgians cast their ballots than did for the entire early voting period of 2016 .
Georgia has by far the largest percentage of Black voters of any battleground state.
” Will you help keep Vox free for all ?
The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ one of the most consequential presidential elections of our lifetimes .
It ’ s essential that all Americans are able to access clear , concise information on what the outcome of the election could mean for their lives , and the lives of their families and communities .
That is our mission at Vox .
But our distinctive brand of explanatory journalism takes resources .
Even when the economy and the news advertising market recovers , your support will be a critical part of sustaining our resource-intensive work .
If you have already @ @ @ @ @ @ @ haven ’ t , please consider helping everyone understand this presidential election : Contribute today from as little as $ 3 .

Georgia, a once-solidly Republican state, has not one but two competitive Senate races this year.
Driven by booming and quickly-diversifying suburbs outside Atlanta, and suburban women fleeing the Republican party under President Donald Trump, these trends could give Democrats Jon Ossoff and Rev. Raphael Warnock a shot at winning.
“The fact we’re even talking about a competitive race in Georgia tells you the impact of demographic change on American politics,” Republican pollster Whit Ayres recently told Vox.
Ayres, for one, thinks traditionally southern states like Georgia and Texas are still a few years away from being true swing states. But Democrats in the state aren’t so sure.
“Our time is now,” 2018 gubernatorial candidate Stacey Abrams, the founder of voting rights group Fair Fight, told Vox in an email interview. “We’re in a strong position; our message to voters is that when we overwhelm the system with our voices, we will win.”
Related What a Democratic Senate wants
In one Senate race, Republican Sen. David Perdue faces Ossoff, who narrowly lost a 2017 Georgia Congressional race in a district Democrats flipped the next year. Then there’s a less conventional — and far more crowded — special election race to replace retiring Republican Sen. Johnny Isakson. A whopping 20 candidates running in the special election, but the three at the top are Republican incumbent Sen. Kelly Loeffler (appointed to replace Isakson in 2019), Democrat and senior pastor of the Ebenezer Baptist Church pastor Warnock, and conservative Rep. Doug Collins, who is running to Loeffler’s right.
If no candidate clears a threshold of 50 percent, Georgia Senate races go to a federal runoff election, scheduled for January 5, 2021. The special election is widely expected to go to a runoff. Polls have shown Warnock in the lead, with Loeffler and Collins splitting the Republican vote, but no one close to 50 percent.
The regular election between Perdue and Ossoff is also incredibly tight; a recent Atlanta Journal-Constitution poll showed Ossoff just one point ahead of the Republican incumbent — a statistical tie at 46 percent to 45 percent. The same poll found Trump and Democrat Joe Biden essentially tied as well. Another recent New York Times/Siena College poll found Ossoff and Perdue tied at 43 percent each.
The big question in Georgia politics these days is not just whether Democrats can pull off a win — it’s also whether there will be two runoffs this winter.
For the “special election, it’s a surety,” said University of Georgia political science professor Charles Bullock. “For the other one, if indeed the polling is accurate, then I think it’s a high probability.”
The traditional Senate race, explained
This spring, Sen. Perdue gave a group of GOP activists an unvarnished warning about the coming election year.
“Here’s the reality: The state of Georgia is in play,” Perdue said on a call obtained by CNN. “The Democrats have made it that way.”
Perdue was initially considered one of the more insulated senators in a year where Republicans were defending a lot of territory. Perdue is conservative and business-friendly, and a staunch defender of the president in a historically Republican state. He’s a multi-millionaire former CEO of companies like Reebok and Dollar General, and lives in a gated community on Georgia’s ultra-wealthy Sea Island.
“The fact we’re even talking about a competitive race in Georgia tells you the impact of demographic change on American politics”
“He has been absent for six years, I mean completely absent,” said Georgia state Sen. Jen Jordan, a Democrat. “No town halls, no public events, nothing. It’s not like he’s at his local Kroger.”
Even more warning signs started to appear in the spring, as polls showed the race between Perdue and investigative journalist and 2017 congressional candidate Jon Ossoff tightening.
“From day one we’ve known that this will be one of the most competitive races in the country,” Perdue campaign spokesman John Burke told Vox in a statement, adding, “We are confident that Georgians will re-elect Sen. Perdue on November 3rd.”
Atlanta’s diversifying suburbs were already worrisome for Republicans. The party is also watching as existing trends are being hastened a combination of white suburban voters moving away from Trump, and increased turnout among Black voters.
“Counties and suburbs of Atlanta are moving at light speed away from Republicans,” said Cook Political Report Senate editor Jessica Taylor, who rates both Georgia races as tossups. “Trump has accelerated a more natural evolution, but that has made it hard.”
While Perdue has spent the race painting Ossoff as a “socialist” with a “radical agenda,” Ossoff has spent his campaign talking about anti-corruption reforms, racial justice, and lowering the cost of health care. Ossoff told Vox that if he’s elected, anti-corruption reforms — including a Constitutional amendment overturning Citizens United, a corporate PAC ban, and a ban on stock trading by sitting senators — will be his first priority in the Senate.
The third item is a direct shot at Perdue and Loeffler, both of whom have taken heat for stock trades made after they received classified briefings on the Covid-19 pandemic while they were in office. Both have denied the allegations of wrongdoing, and say that the trades were made by outside advisers, without their knowledge.
“The necessity of anti-corruption reforms also cuts through the partisan divide because everyone recognizes the political system is corrupt,” Ossoff said in an interview. “Everyone recognizes that it’s a systemic issue more than it’s a partisan issue. The key is connecting it to people’s daily lives: The outrageous price of prescription drugs, the abuses that we face daily, from insurance companies, the way that polluters are empowered to destroy our clean air and clean water.”
Beyond policy, Ossoff also gets a boost in Democratic circles from his 2017 congressional campaign in Georgia’s 6th Congressional district — a traditionally Republican district that’s part of Atlanta’s suburbs. Even though Ossoff ultimately lost that race, multiple sources told Vox that Ossoff’s 2017 race energized a contingent of disillusioned white suburban women and Black voters, and helped beef up Democratic organizing in the area. Democrats flipped the district the following year, electing Democratic Rep. Lucy McBath.
“Democrats really were in the wilderness since at least 2002,” Jordan told Vox. “No power, Republicans weren’t even being challenged. Jon runs for this congressional [seat] and all of a sudden you see these women in the Atlanta suburbs coming out in droves to support him and work for him.”
Ossoff recognizes the changing demographics of the Atlanta suburbs are a growing source of energy for Democrats in state, combined with a “massive” investment in party infrastructure.
“I was out marching with NAACP in July, and it was people of all backgrounds, races ages, from all regions participating,” he told Vox. “This is driving the collapse of the GOP southern strategy, their approach to politics in the south since Nixon has been to divide voters along racial and cultural lines. And now we have this multiracial coalition ... that GOP strategy is breaking down.”
The special election, explained
Most Georgia politics observers expect we won’t know the winner of the special Senate election for a few more months.
The crowded field for the Georgia’s special election ultimately comes down to three people: Warnock, Loeffler, and Doug Collins, the ranking member of the House Judiciary Committee and a staunch Trump ally. The Democratic side has mostly cleared for Warnock, but polls show Republican voters are split between Loeffler and Collins. (Matt Lieberman, son of former vice presidential candidate and Sen. Joe Lieberman, is also running, but has seen his support disappear as the race heated up and Warnock was endorsed by party leaders including former President Barack Obama.)
The New York Times polling showed Warnock leading both Republicans at 32 percent, with Loeffler getting 23 percent of Republican support compared to 17 percent for Collins. A couple surveys have shown Warnock inching into 40 percent territory, but the conventional wisdom among many is that he won’t be able to clear 50 percent by November 3.
“He is opening a lead over either of the Republicans,” said Bullock, the University of Georgia professor. Loeffler and Collins, on the other hand, appear to be splitting the Republican vote pretty evenly. “If you add the vote for those two together, it comes close to equalling the vote for Perdue and the vote for Trump.”
For Warnock and whichever Republican emerges out of the special election, there’s an open question of whether voter enthusiasm will remain high in January. Turnout will likely be lower then, and if Joe Biden wins the White House, Democrats run the risk of Republican turnout being energized to put a check on a Democratic president.
Appointed by Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp in 2019 as part of an effort to stop the exodus of white suburban women from the Republican party, Loeffler has taken a hard right turn towards Trump — even advertising in an ad that she’s “more conservative than Attila the Hun.” Loeffler was recently endorsed by controversial Congressional candidate Marjorie Taylor Greene, who espouses the baseless “Q Anon” conspiracy theory. If her original goal was to draw in disaffected suburban women, that might be more difficult. (Loeffler’s campaign didn’t respond to Vox’s request for comment).
“She didn’t really have a persona,” said Jordan, the Democratic state senator. “She was known as being really rich and one of the owners of the WNBA” team in Atlanta.
On the Democratic side, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee early on backed Raphael Warnock, the senior pastor of the storied Ebenezer Baptist Church. Warnock’s church has a storied legacy; it’s where civil rights icon Martin Luther King Jr. served as pastor in the 1960s.
“Georgia is the home state of Martin Luther King Jr.,” Warnock told Vox in an interview. “It has long been the tip of the spear for change in America. And I think that through this movement we’re building, it once again will be a central focus for that change.”
Even in 2020, the fight for racial justice and civil rights has been difficult. Georgia was the site of two shocking killings of black men this year alone: First, the shooting death of jogger Ahmaud Arbery in his neighborhood by two white men, and then the police shooting of Rayshard Brooks a few weeks after George Floyd’s killing in Minneapolis.
Warnock delivered the eulogy for Brooks this summer.
“It was one of the toughest things I’ve had to do in my ministry,” he told Vox. “The thing that that I remember the most was talking to his eight-year-old daughter. Earlier that day, she had been celebrating her eighth birthday party with her dad. And from now on her birthday will be associated with his last day. That is too much for any child to have to bear.”
Warnock said issues of racial justice are not just “theoretical” to him. One of his early ads was about his experience at age 12 being dragged out of a store and accused of shoplifting, simply for having his hands in his pockets.
“All these years later, while we have made considerable progress, we’re still fighting voter suppression and police brutality,” Warnock told Vox. “What I’m most inspired by is the appropriate restlessness of the yell. I think that they’re justified in their discontent.”
Georgia’s demographics are changing rapidly
The center of Georgia’s demographic change are Atlanta’s growing and diversifying suburbs. Business is booming in Atlanta, and so is population.
Between 2010 and 2019, the area’s population shot up from about 5.3 million people to over than 6 million, according to data from the US Census, reported by Curbed. That growth put the Atlanta metro area fourth in growth nationwide, behind Houston and Dallas, Texas, and Phoenix, Arizona (Senate seats in Texas and Arizona are also considered Democratic targets this year).
“Every area in metro Atlanta is growing,” said state Rep. Angelika Kausche, a Democrat. “People come here for the education, for the schools, for the quality of life.” That has brought legions of diverse, younger voters to Atlanta’s metro area.
Amid the influx to the Atlanta suburbs, political observers in Georgia have been watching elections get closer and closer. In the 2018 governor’s race, Abrams lost to then-Secretary of State Brian Kemp by a little more than 50,000 votes — a scare for Georgia Republicans.
“Stacey Abrams lost by less than 55,000 votes out of 4 million in an election, which her opponent was also the umpire,” Warnock said. “With his thumb firmly on the scale, he barely squeaked by less than 55,000 votes.”
Abrams’s group Fair Fight and other voting rights groups like the New Georgia Project have been putting a ton of effort into registering and turning out Black voters in high rates this year. The state has already hit record registration levels, with about 7.6 million voters registered. And since early voting started, over 2.7 million voters have cast ballots.
“We’re going to have record turnout,” said Abrams. “We’ve already had half a million more Georgians cast their ballots than did for the entire early voting period of 2016. Georgia has by far the largest percentage of Black voters of any battleground state.”
Aaron Ross Coleman contributed reporting.
Correction: An earlier version of this story misstated the first name of University of Georgia professor Charles Bullock.