vox--2020-01-23--Bernie Sanders’s path to the 2020 Democratic nomination, explained

This week , for the first time , the progressive senator from Vermont emerged in first place in a national CNN poll , showing him 3 points ahead of former Vice President Joe Biden , though within the margin of error .
For months , Sanders has been hovering around 20 percent in the RealClearPolitics national polling average , but some good recent national and early-state polls are putting him on an upward trajectory .
If his campaign can turn out Iowa ’ s sizable Latino population and working-class voters , Sanders is bullish about winning the February 3 caucuses @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in New Hampshire favorably for him — and with a robust operation in key Western states like Nevada and California , two decisive wins in the earliest states could put Sanders well on his way to the Democratic nomination .
Even more importantly , they could prove Sanders ’ s theory of winning elections : expanding the electorate and getting traditionally neglected groups to turn out .
Some might call it a political revolution .
“ To defeat Donald Trump , the simple truth is we are going to need to have the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ American politics — that ’ s a fact , ” Sanders said at a recent rally in Exeter .
“ That means we are going to have to bring people into the political process who very often have not been involved in the political process.
” Iowa has roughly 80,000 voting-eligible Latinos , and the Sanders campaign estimates fewer than 1 percent caucused in 2016 .
The campaign has put a lot of work into increasing that number this year , organizing in Latino communities , airing Spanish-language ads , and sending high-profile @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ) to the state .
“ If you look at the caucus , it ’ s something that typically hasn ’ t been engaged with by working people ; you could see that with the low Latino turnout in the last caucuses .
What we wanted to do here is turn as many people out as possible , ” Sanders ’ s deputy state director for Iowa , Bill Neidhardt , told Vox .
Winning Iowa is critical for Sanders , but this strategy goes far beyond just one state .
Sanders is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ voters , which is helping boost his profile in the February 22 Nevada caucuses and delegate-rich California , which votes on Super Tuesday .
Joe Biden might have a big lead among black voters as a whole , but the senator from Vermont has made significant inroads with younger black voters .
Though Sanders ’ s 2016 campaign had a reputation for attracting a disproportionately white coalition , that has changed in a big way this time around .
Younger voters and people of color may be the key to Sanders ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in Iowa , in less than two weeks .
If Sanders wins the early states , he has a clear path to the nomination Sanders ’ s surge in momentum couldn ’ t come at a better time for him , in the last weeks before Iowa and New Hampshire .
The CNN national poll conducted from January 16 to 19 showed Sanders at 27 percent , followed by Biden at 24 percent , Sen. Elizabeth Warren at 14 percent , and former South Bend , Indiana , Mayor Pete Buttigieg at 11 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ just one poll .
If polling averages have shown anything about Sanders in the past few months , it ’ s that he hasn ’ t moved much below or above his roughly 20 percent of primary voter support — even though he had a heart attack in early October .
Polls show Sanders supporters are the most loyal and enthusiastic ; with a crowded and splintered field , that might be enough to win .
“ Sanders has been the one constant in New Hampshire this entire year , ” said University @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Scala .
“ He ’ s still very popular among young people , progressives , and he gets some support among white working-class voters in New Hampshire.
” Biden is still first and Sanders second in the RealClearPolitics national polling average and its Iowa average , but the gap between them is closing .
Sanders has a slight lead in New Hampshire , though he and Biden are very close there too .
With such a close and crowded primary , the final weeks are the most critical .
This also means relatively @ @ @ @ @ @ @ huge difference for candidates , especially in the Iowa caucuses .
“ If we win Iowa and New Hampshire , I think we stand a great chance to win Nevada , I think we ’ re strong there , ” Sanders told a crowd of supporters this weekend .
“ I think we ’ re going to do very well in South Carolina , I think we ’ re going to win California and many other states on Super Tuesday .
And if we do all that , we will have accomplished something @ @ @ @ @ @ @ America , and that is put together an unprecedented political revolution.
” Unlike 2016 , Sanders has the campaign infrastructure and planning to prepare for it ; he ’ s had big door-knocking operations in the early states for much of the past year and is well-staffed in multiple Super Tuesday states .
The campaign ’ s massive grassroots fundraising is more than enough to keep Sanders going well past the early states .
Sanders has put a huge emphasis on California , hiring more than 80 staffers and opening five offices in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ color .
A December study by the LA Times and UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies found Sanders narrowly leading Warren in California , with Biden and Buttigieg in third and fourth .
And a November Latino Decisions poll found Sanders the top candidate among Latinos in California by close to 10 points .
“ He ran a real campaign here ” in 2016 , longtime California Democratic consultant Bill Carrick told Vox recently .
“ He believes strongly he can do well here .
He ’ s going to be a player @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Sanders pulls off strong performances in the first two states , the work his campaign has put in with working-class voters — whether they ’ re white , black , or Latino — could make him unstoppable .
After Sanders bowed out of the 2016 presidential race , he admitted his campaign had been too white and too male , and vowed to do better .
“ We were criticized for being too white ; that was a correct criticism , ” Sanders said on the Breakfast Club radio show last March .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ male ; that was a correct criticism .
That ’ s going to change.
” The left is also looking different than it did four years ago .
Progressive superstars Reps. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez ( D-NY ) , Ilhan Omar ( D-MN ) , and Rashida Tlaib ( D-MI ) endorsed Sanders earlier in the year ; after the 2018 midterms , progressive politicians are reflecting more of their young , diverse , and liberal base .
A potential boost to Sanders ’ s campaign this time around is support from Latino voters , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , according to a January Morning Consult tracking poll .
Latino voters tend to be younger and more progressive , with ties to organized labor , a group friendly to Sanders .
In 2016 , he was just introducing himself to Latino voters ; now he ’ s a known entity .
“ Harry Reid unlocked this system in Nevada where you have a young population , you have a population that is integrated into labor unions , and Reid uses particularly labor unions to get Latinos out to vote , ” said @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the Latino polling firm Latino Decisions .
“ This is the playbook , and it ’ s a natural fit for Sanders ’ s style of how he envisions politics.
” With a Univision analysis showing Latino turnout doubling in the 2018 midterms in eight states — including Nevada , California , Texas , Florida , and New York — Latinos are a fast-growing portion of the American electorate .
But community leaders have also long complained about the Democratic Party and candidates failing to engage them .
Chuck Rocha , a senior @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Latino outreach , says he ’ s making sure Sanders won ’ t make that mistake .
“ As a chief adviser , I ’ m going to do what we have demanded campaigns do through generations of being taken advantage of , ” Rocha told me .
Latino groups in key states have reported that Sanders ’ s campaign has been very active there , and the campaign has hired more than 100 Latino staffers across the country , including in top positions .
Nick Salazar , the state president of the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ LULAC ) , serves as an Iowa campaign co-chair .
And Sanders ’ s California state director is Rafael Návar , a former activist and union organizer originally from heavily Latino East Los Angeles .
It ’ s “ integrated to every department , everything we do , ” Rocha said .
“ We went to the community , listened to the community , hired the community , and we ... invested early in that community.
” Biden leads Sanders and all other candidates among black voters , which could give him a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Tuesday states .
But in a recent Washington Post/Ipsos poll of black Americans , Sanders is the favorite for voters under age 35 .
“ We ’ ve asked younger people across the spectrum , but particularly African American younger folks , to go and talk to their parents and grandparents about why they support Sen. Bernie Sanders , and we ’ re seeing a lot of traction pick up with that , ” Sanders national campaign co-chair Nina Turner told Vox .
Sanders still has some work to do with older voters @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is whether the oldest candidate running in the Democratic primary can appeal to older voters .
In national polls , “ Biden ’ s in first place and Bernie ’ s in second , so we ’ ve got to overtake him in the most effective way , ” Sanders campaign pollster Ben Tulchin told me .
“ The middle-aged working-class person is really who we ’ re contesting with Biden.
” A recent Morning Consult national tracking poll found Sanders with commanding leads among both Gen Z ( voters ages 18 to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to 37 ) .
But among older generations , Sanders lost his edge .
Biden led among Gen X ( ages 38 to 53 ) by 30 percent to Sanders ’ s 22 percent .
Among baby boomers ( 54 to 72 ) , Biden was leading at 35 percent , compared to 14 percent from Warren and 13 percent from Sanders .
“ He ’ s maintained a strong connection and ties to millennials ; that ’ s given him a good base , ” Tulchin said .
But he added that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and older voters .
Specifically , the Sanders campaign wants to capture non-college-educated men and women ages 40 to 64 , both white and black .
“ He needs those working-class voters who are not tied down to one ideology or another , ” said Monmouth University polling director Patrick Murray .
“ That ’ s the way he ’ s trying to expand his coalition.
” In other words , Murray said , Sanders needs to siphon off Biden supporters .
Even though the midterms showed a growth in youth turnout , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and to turn out more reliably .
Part of why the Sanders campaign has gone after Biden so hard on Social Security is to boost credibility among older voters .
Sanders ’ s no-nonsense , gruff resoluteness on progressive issues is refreshing to some voters who are sick of Washington ’ s political antics and corruption .
Go to any Sanders town hall or rally and you ’ ll find voters who say they think he ’ s honest and authentic — in large part because he hasn ’ t budged on his @ @ @ @ @ @ @ He ’ s so honest , decent , and has been forever , ” said Epping voter Elaine Gatchell , who voted for Sanders in 2016 and plans to do so again in 2020 .
“ I don ’ t think anyone could ever buy him off .
I just know he ’ s such a straight shooter.
” “ If he ’ s on the ballot , he has my vote , ” Langdon voter Jennifer Doyle told me recently .
“ He ’ s honest and straightforward , no frills .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ handlers ; he ’ s not beholden .
We need that.
” Earlier this summer , questions abounded about whether Elizabeth Warren ’ s presence in the race would shrink Sanders ’ s base .
While some 2016 Sanders supporters have switched over , polls show Warren has drawn support largely from higher-educated liberal voters , and Sanders has mostly hung on to his young , loyal base .
“ It took me a little while to get back on the Bernie train , ” Keene voter Jenna Spear O ’ Mara told @ @ @ @ @ @ @ came back to that gut feeling .
I find myself drawn to Bernie ; he ’ s super direct.
” It just might be his ticket to the nomination .

EXETER, New Hampshire — Bernie Sanders is surging.
This week, for the first time, the progressive senator from Vermont emerged in first place in a national CNN poll, showing him 3 points ahead of former Vice President Joe Biden, though within the margin of error. For months, Sanders has been hovering around 20 percent in the RealClearPolitics national polling average, but some good recent national and early-state polls are putting him on an upward trajectory.
If his campaign can turn out Iowa’s sizable Latino population and working-class voters, Sanders is bullish about winning the February 3 caucuses. That could shift the ground here in New Hampshire favorably for him — and with a robust operation in key Western states like Nevada and California, two decisive wins in the earliest states could put Sanders well on his way to the Democratic nomination.
Even more importantly, they could prove Sanders’s theory of winning elections: expanding the electorate and getting traditionally neglected groups to turn out. Some might call it a political revolution.
“To defeat Donald Trump, the simple truth is we are going to need to have the largest voter turnout in the history of American politics — that’s a fact,” Sanders said at a recent rally in Exeter. “That means we are going to have to bring people into the political process who very often have not been involved in the political process.”
Iowa has roughly 80,000 voting-eligible Latinos, and the Sanders campaign estimates fewer than 1 percent caucused in 2016. The campaign has put a lot of work into increasing that number this year, organizing in Latino communities, airing Spanish-language ads, and sending high-profile surrogates like Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) to the state.
“If you look at the caucus, it’s something that typically hasn’t been engaged with by working people; you could see that with the low Latino turnout in the last caucuses. What we wanted to do here is turn as many people out as possible,” Sanders’s deputy state director for Iowa, Bill Neidhardt, told Vox.
Winning Iowa is critical for Sanders, but this strategy goes far beyond just one state. Sanders is now the leading 2020 candidate among Latino voters, which is helping boost his profile in the February 22 Nevada caucuses and delegate-rich California, which votes on Super Tuesday. Joe Biden might have a big lead among black voters as a whole, but the senator from Vermont has made significant inroads with younger black voters.
Though Sanders’s 2016 campaign had a reputation for attracting a disproportionately white coalition, that has changed in a big way this time around. Younger voters and people of color may be the key to Sanders’s path to victory.
It all starts in Iowa, in less than two weeks.
If Sanders wins the early states, he has a clear path to the nomination
Sanders’s surge in momentum couldn’t come at a better time for him, in the last weeks before Iowa and New Hampshire. The CNN national poll conducted from January 16 to 19 showed Sanders at 27 percent, followed by Biden at 24 percent, Sen. Elizabeth Warren at 14 percent, and former South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg at 11 percent.
Of course, this is just one poll. If polling averages have shown anything about Sanders in the past few months, it’s that he hasn’t moved much below or above his roughly 20 percent of primary voter support — even though he had a heart attack in early October. Polls show Sanders supporters are the most loyal and enthusiastic; with a crowded and splintered field, that might be enough to win.
“Sanders has been the one constant in New Hampshire this entire year,” said University of New Hampshire political science professor Dante Scala. “He’s still very popular among young people, progressives, and he gets some support among white working-class voters in New Hampshire.”
Biden is still first and Sanders second in the RealClearPolitics national polling average and its Iowa average, but the gap between them is closing. On Saturday, the New York Times and Siena College released a poll of likely Iowa caucusgoers showing Sanders in the lead at 25 percent. Buttigieg and Biden trailed at 18 and 17 percent respectively, with Warren at 15 percent.
And Sanders is in the lead in New Hampshire, with Biden in second. On Thursday, WBUR released a poll showing Sanders leading the field among Democratic likely voters at 29 percent, with Buttigieg also at 17 percent, Biden at 14 percent, and Warren at 13 percent. Notably, Sanders was by far the most favorable candidate among likely voters making less than $50,000 per year.
With such a close and crowded primary, and many voters still undecided, the final weeks are the most critical. This also means relatively minor changes in turnout can make a huge difference for candidates, especially in the Iowa caucuses.
“If we win Iowa and New Hampshire, I think we stand a great chance to win Nevada, I think we’re strong there,” Sanders told a crowd of supporters this weekend. “I think we’re going to do very well in South Carolina, I think we’re going to win California and many other states on Super Tuesday. And if we do all that, we will have accomplished something never done in the modern history of America, and that is put together an unprecedented political revolution.”
Unlike 2016, Sanders has the campaign infrastructure and planning to prepare for it; he’s had big door-knocking operations in the early states for much of the past year and is well-staffed in multiple Super Tuesday states. The campaign’s massive grassroots fundraising is more than enough to keep Sanders going well past the early states.
Sanders has put a huge emphasis on California, hiring more than 80 staffers and opening five offices in the state, and organizing communities of color. A December study by the LA Times and UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies found Sanders narrowly leading Warren in California, with Biden and Buttigieg in third and fourth. And a November Latino Decisions poll found Sanders the top candidate among Latinos in California by close to 10 points.
“He ran a real campaign here” in 2016, longtime California Democratic consultant Bill Carrick told Vox recently. “He believes strongly he can do well here. He’s going to be a player in these Orange County districts.”
If Sanders pulls off strong performances in the first two states, the work his campaign has put in with working-class voters — whether they’re white, black, or Latino — could make him unstoppable.
Sanders’s changing base, explained
After Sanders bowed out of the 2016 presidential race, he admitted his campaign had been too white and too male, and vowed to do better.
“We were criticized for being too white; that was a correct criticism,” Sanders said on the Breakfast Club radio show last March. “We were criticized for being too male; that was a correct criticism. That’s going to change.”
The left is also looking different than it did four years ago. Progressive superstars Reps. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY), Ilhan Omar (D-MN), and Rashida Tlaib (D-MI) endorsed Sanders earlier in the year; after the 2018 midterms, progressive politicians are reflecting more of their young, diverse, and liberal base.
A potential boost to Sanders’s campaign this time around is support from Latino voters, with whom the senator is leading nationwide, according to a January Morning Consult tracking poll. Latino voters tend to be younger and more progressive, with ties to organized labor, a group friendly to Sanders. In 2016, he was just introducing himself to Latino voters; now he’s a known entity.
“Harry Reid unlocked this system in Nevada where you have a young population, you have a population that is integrated into labor unions, and Reid uses particularly labor unions to get Latinos out to vote,” said Stephen Nuño-Perez, a senior analyst for the Latino polling firm Latino Decisions. “This is the playbook, and it’s a natural fit for Sanders’s style of how he envisions politics.”
With a Univision analysis showing Latino turnout doubling in the 2018 midterms in eight states — including Nevada, California, Texas, Florida, and New York — Latinos are a fast-growing portion of the American electorate. But community leaders have also long complained about the Democratic Party and candidates failing to engage them. Chuck Rocha, a senior adviser for the Sanders campaign who oversees Latino outreach, says he’s making sure Sanders won’t make that mistake.
“As a chief adviser, I’m going to do what we have demanded campaigns do through generations of being taken advantage of,” Rocha told me.
Latino groups in key states have reported that Sanders’s campaign has been very active there, and the campaign has hired more than 100 Latino staffers across the country, including in top positions. Nick Salazar, the state president of the League of United Latin American Citizens (LULAC), serves as an Iowa campaign co-chair. And Sanders’s California state director is Rafael Návar, a former activist and union organizer originally from heavily Latino East Los Angeles.
It’s “integrated to every department, everything we do,” Rocha said. “We went to the community, listened to the community, hired the community, and we ... invested early in that community.”
Biden leads Sanders and all other candidates among black voters, which could give him a boost in South Carolina and Southern Super Tuesday states. But in a recent Washington Post/Ipsos poll of black Americans, Sanders is the favorite for voters under age 35.
“We’ve asked younger people across the spectrum, but particularly African American younger folks, to go and talk to their parents and grandparents about why they support Sen. Bernie Sanders, and we’re seeing a lot of traction pick up with that,” Sanders national campaign co-chair Nina Turner told Vox.
Sanders still has some work to do with older voters
The biggest question facing Sanders in 2020 is whether the oldest candidate running in the Democratic primary can appeal to older voters.
In national polls, “Biden’s in first place and Bernie’s in second, so we’ve got to overtake him in the most effective way,” Sanders campaign pollster Ben Tulchin told me. “The middle-aged working-class person is really who we’re contesting with Biden.”
A recent Morning Consult national tracking poll found Sanders with commanding leads among both Gen Z (voters ages 18 to 21) and millennials (ages 22 to 37). But among older generations, Sanders lost his edge. Biden led among Gen X (ages 38 to 53) by 30 percent to Sanders’s 22 percent. Among baby boomers (54 to 72), Biden was leading at 35 percent, compared to 14 percent from Warren and 13 percent from Sanders.
“He’s maintained a strong connection and ties to millennials; that’s given him a good base,” Tulchin said. But he added that Sanders needs to do well with middle-aged and older voters. Specifically, the Sanders campaign wants to capture non-college-educated men and women ages 40 to 64, both white and black.
“He needs those working-class voters who are not tied down to one ideology or another,” said Monmouth University polling director Patrick Murray. “That’s the way he’s trying to expand his coalition.” In other words, Murray said, Sanders needs to siphon off Biden supporters.
Even though the midterms showed a growth in youth turnout, older voters tend to be more moderate and to turn out more reliably. Part of why the Sanders campaign has gone after Biden so hard on Social Security is to boost credibility among older voters.
Sanders’s “authenticity” remains a draw for voters
Sanders’s no-nonsense, gruff resoluteness on progressive issues is refreshing to some voters who are sick of Washington’s political antics and corruption.
Go to any Sanders town hall or rally and you’ll find voters who say they think he’s honest and authentic — in large part because he hasn’t budged on his positions in over 30 years.
“He’s so honest, decent, and has been forever,” said Epping voter Elaine Gatchell, who voted for Sanders in 2016 and plans to do so again in 2020. “I don’t think anyone could ever buy him off. I just know he’s such a straight shooter.”
“If he’s on the ballot, he has my vote,” Langdon voter Jennifer Doyle told me recently. “He’s honest and straightforward, no frills. He’s not playing to financial handlers; he’s not beholden. We need that.”
Earlier this summer, questions abounded about whether Elizabeth Warren’s presence in the race would shrink Sanders’s base. While some 2016 Sanders supporters have switched over, polls show Warren has drawn support largely from higher-educated liberal voters, and Sanders has mostly hung on to his young, loyal base.
“It took me a little while to get back on the Bernie train,” Keene voter Jenna Spear O’Mara told me, adding, “I just came back to that gut feeling. I find myself drawn to Bernie; he’s super direct.”
It just might be his ticket to the nomination.


vox--2020-01-23--Shopify, the e-commerce company that’s coming for Amazon

When YouTube stars and fashion influencers Jeffree Star and Shane Dawson announced a limited-edition makeup collaboration in fall 2019 , the potential for the sale to set records wasn ’ t hyperbole .
Helmed by internet personalities with a combined 40 million-plus subscribers on the video platform and roughly 50 million more followers on other social media networks , then breathlessly promoted with nearly five hours of videos that drew more than 90 million viewers , the flash sale planned for the afternoon of November 1 was inevitably going to be massive .
Organizers recognized that it would be an @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to need Shopify .
The Canadian-born e-commerce platform has become one of the most influential players in online retail .
Currently more than 1 million merchants around the globe use the company ’ s technology to open their own digital storefronts and sell goods on the internet , creating a constellation of independent , and decentralized , stores ( unlike marketplaces like eBay or Etsy ) .
Even its massive infrastructure strained and temporarily broke under the weight of such a sale , however .
Loren Padelford , head of Shopify Plus , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , called it “ a perfect storm of pressure.
” During the first few hours , when many frantic shoppers received error messages during their purchase attempts — Jeffree Star said that the incredible demand “ broke the front end , it broke the back end , everything is fucked ” — millions of people across the world were on the same website clicking on the same button at the same moment ( the stars claimed to have sold 1 million palettes that day alone ) .
Padelford said “ there were more @ @ @ @ @ @ @ single website , the moment that product dropped , then there were on Amazon at the same time .
It was the biggest drop sale in the history of the internet , as far as we can tell.
” “ I ’ m excited and terrified of the scale some of these people are building to , they ’ re getting to the level where they ’ re going to break the internet , ” says Padelford .
And Shopify is determined to help them break it .
Shopify has worked to position @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the experience and size to support fast-growing , digitally native brands — the company ’ s tech has powered direct-to-consumer staples such as Allbirds and Brooklinen — as well as those like Star and Dawson , who are on the larger end of what Padelford calls social influencer selling .
Think brands like fitness apparel creators Gymshark , or personalities such as Kylie Jenner who can tap their networks to instantly bring “ high quality , low volume goods ” into the world .
The physics of the internet , Padelford says , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ bigger selling channel by the day .
But what really has made the Shopify platform a bit of a juggernaut is its comprehensiveness .
Launched in 2006 by three friends who couldn ’ t find an e-commerce solution for their nascent snowboard company , Snowdevil , and decided to build their own platform , it ’ s grown into a one-stop shop for aspiring merchants and makers .
Currently , 1.4 million full-time jobs globally are supported by companies using Shopify .
A basic subscription plan costs $ 29 a month , and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ web store , which can then be customized with tools to do marketing , manage social media , and keep track of inventory and shipping .
There ’ s an entire ecosystem of app designers as well as marketing agencies who custom build stores on Shopify .
Last year , the company announced plans to invest $ 1 billion over five years on warehouse space and robotics to build out a fulfillment network so Shopify can also deliver your packages .
“ The simple answer is , Shopify has made it super easy @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a small player and stand out on your own merit , ” says Paul Munford , editor-in-chief of Lean Luxe , a newsletter focused on the modern luxury marketplace .
“ Shopify has made it super easy to get into the ecommerce game as a small player and stand out on your own merit.
” It ’ s now a world in itself , a very profitable one that makes money off software subscriptions , payment processing , and other merchant services .
The company expects to see roughly $ 1.5 billion in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ jump from the previous year , and continues to see strong growth in subscription revenue .
This past Black Friday/Cyber Monday weekend , the company saw $ 2.9 billion in total sales ; during its peak , Shopify software was processing $ 1.5 million in sales and 16,000 checkouts a minute .
Padelford and other company executives will tell you Shopify is “ arming the rebels , ” both a boast about the company ’ s focus on small , independent business , and a dig at Amazon , the truly dominant force @ @ @ @ @ @ @ marketplace with more than 8 million sellers and captures a third of all e-commerce sales .
Shopify argues that by creating a merchant-first software product and constantly adapting to fast-moving changes in how we shop online , it helps support more entrepreneurship and new business , which ends up benefitting the consumer in the long run .
As Padelford would tell merchants , “ Amazon is like a mall owner who will open an identical store next to you , sell all of your products at a cheaper price , and try to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ thing .
That ’ s not actually a mall owner , that ’ s a competitor masquerading as a mall owner.
” He doesn ’ t see Shopify as the Amazon competitor ; the software company ’ s customers are in the real fight , he ’ s just one of the arms dealers .
Vox/Recode contributor and digital marketing expert Scott Galloway puts it more bluntly : “ Amazon partners with companies the way a virus partners with a host.
” Part of the reason Shopify has maintained its trajectory and relevance @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in tandem with shopping .
Take the company ’ s current focus on in-store shopping , which may seem an unorthodox avenue for a software company .
According to Craig Miller , the company ’ s Chief Product Officer , Shopify ’ s new point-of-sale technology , including hardware to use in store , came after a realization that brick-and-mortar and online shopping were blurring , especially at a time when direct-to-consumer brands were seeking to open physical retail stores en masse .
Think of a buyer who tries something on in the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ house , or someone who sees a dress they like online and wants to see if they can try it on in the store .
Because Shopify already provides many merchants with payment , inventory , and shipping services , adding new POS terminals in stores to accommodate this kind of behavior is relatively easy .
This past Black Friday/Cyber Monday weekend , the company saw $ 2.9 billion in total sales .
“ Some of these tools have been available to very large retailers , but for small retailers , they often @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , ” says Miller .
Most of the new initiatives Miller is currently focused on have this same idea in mind , leveraging Shopify ’ s size to provide crucial technology to small merchants to level the playing field .
An initiative to simplify shipping , exchange rates , and international sales to make it easier for small businesses to sell globally is “ creating more opportunity for merchants.
” Miller and his team are even working on augmented reality .
By helping merchants create 3D models of their goods that , in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ with smartphone apps to virtually view how a product looks in physical space before purchasing , Miller believes he can help smaller sellers keep up with tech trends , as well as improve conversion rates and cut down on returns .
That ’ s one of the main reasons Shopify has moved into fulfillment .
Today ’ s shopping standard is clicking “ buy ” and seeing an Amazon Prime box on your doorstep the next day .
Shopify wants to use its size to set up a fulfillment network that small merchants @ @ @ @ @ @ @ similarly fast shipping ( two-day delivery across 99 percent of the United States ) .
“ We ’ re able to offer those services to startups as if they were a multibillion dollar retailer , all within their first few months of being open , ” says Miller .
Shopify ’ s plan is to lease warehouse space , and utilize robotics technology from a company called 6 River Systems , which they purchased in October for $ 450 million .
Shopify will also use the vast amounts of data they have collected @ @ @ @ @ @ @ as machine learning , to optimize the logistics network and pre-positioning of goods for quicker shipping .
Companies that sign up for the program can even have their own logo stamped on the box , unlike Amazon third-party sellers , which end up advertising Bezos ’ s latest project .
Trying to take on Amazon and its fulfillment network is a daunting task .
That $ 1 billion investment Shopify is making may sound massive , but Amazon plans to spend $ 64 billion on logistics and shipping alone in 2019 .
And @ @ @ @ @ @ @ force , a complication Shopify hasn ’ t dealt with before .
When asked what would make a Shopify warehouse better than an Amazon warehouse , in terms of pay and labor standards and environmental impact , Miller didn ’ t provide specifics , but did say that “ while we were inspired by the idea of someone getting an item as fast as possible , we would not repeat the terrible warehouse conditions that allow it to happen.
” That means strict guidelines as to which warehouses they ’ d work with @ @ @ @ @ @ @ compostable packaging .
It ’ s a big investment and gamble for Shopify , one that ’ s uncertain to pay off .
Munford believes it ’ s something the company needs to do .
Web Smith , editor of 2PM , a newsletter that covers media and commerce , sees it as more of a long-term play .
“ When the time comes for Shopify to be a complete , holistic ecosystem from start to finish , they ’ ll have touchpoints around the country to help you get packages from point @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , ” he says .
“ A lot of people don ’ t see what they ’ re doing , but that ’ ll be the end result.
” The build-out of a nationwide logistics and fulfillment network plays into the Shopify versus Amazon narrative .
But perhaps those aren ’ t the only players to worry about .
Success in e-commerce often comes down to friction , and the lack thereof , and many new players see opportunities to shake things up .
Instagram has recently pushed into commerce , launching a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ possible for the influencer seller to market and monetize their audience directly from the platform .
Both Miller and Padelford will tell you that ’ s actually to Shopify ’ s advantage ; merchants may find new platforms to sell , but they still need a system that can tie everything in together , and Shopify still offers that at an affordable price .
There ’ s also the threat of new platforms launching .
“ I feel like a new wave of companies is coming , and whoever makes it easier for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ will capture them in a big way , ” says Lean Luxe ’ s Munford .
One of those upstart platforms he ’ s keeping an eye on is Elliot , a new shopping marketplace launched in Brooklyn last October that now boasts 1,300 merchants from 86 countries .
Marco Marandiz , one of the three co-founders , boasts the merchants can go live more quickly than they can on Shopify , again using a no-code approach , and the only cost is a 1 percent fee for every sale .
That ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Elliot .
She founded ShopLatinX , a curated Instagram feed showcasing Latinx makers and merchants , in 2016 , and when she decided to turn it into a store last fall , she found Shopify too complicated , and struggled to get apps from third-party developers to work .
“ Shopify built the tech that we take for granted , ” Marandiz says .
“ We allow people to set up and do it in a day .
We ’ re moving with the trends of people building audiences and coming upon celebrity @ @ @ @ @ @ @ he ’ s always believed that the Shopify ecosystem — whether its Unite , the partnerships , or Twitter evangelists in the tech world — is the X factor .
But when you have an outside company like Elliot trying to do the same thing in a guerilla fashion , it ’ s both a validation , and may , down the road , be a threat .
It ’ s hard to be a billion-dollar upstart .
Sign up for The Goods newsletter .
Twice a week , we ’ ll send @ @ @ @ @ @ @ we buy , why we buy it , and why it matters .

When YouTube stars and fashion influencers Jeffree Star and Shane Dawson announced a limited-edition makeup collaboration in fall 2019, the potential for the sale to set records wasn’t hyperbole. Helmed by internet personalities with a combined 40 million-plus subscribers on the video platform and roughly 50 million more followers on other social media networks, then breathlessly promoted with nearly five hours of videos that drew more than 90 million viewers, the flash sale planned for the afternoon of November 1 was inevitably going to be massive.
Organizers recognized that it would be an event, and that it was going to need Shopify. The Canadian-born e-commerce platform has become one of the most influential players in online retail. Currently more than 1 million merchants around the globe use the company’s technology to open their own digital storefronts and sell goods on the internet, creating a constellation of independent, and decentralized, stores (unlike marketplaces like eBay or Etsy). Even its massive infrastructure strained and temporarily broke under the weight of such a sale, however. Loren Padelford, head of Shopify Plus, the division that deals with larger merchants, called it “a perfect storm of pressure.”
During the first few hours, when many frantic shoppers received error messages during their purchase attempts — Jeffree Star said that the incredible demand “broke the front end, it broke the back end, everything is fucked” — millions of people across the world were on the same website clicking on the same button at the same moment (the stars claimed to have sold 1 million palettes that day alone). Padelford said “there were more people on their website, that one single website, the moment that product dropped, then there were on Amazon at the same time. It was the biggest drop sale in the history of the internet, as far as we can tell.”
“I’m excited and terrified of the scale some of these people are building to, they’re getting to the level where they’re going to break the internet,” says Padelford. And Shopify is determined to help them break it.
Shopify has worked to position itself as the online commerce solution with the experience and size to support fast-growing, digitally native brands — the company’s tech has powered direct-to-consumer staples such as Allbirds and Brooklinen — as well as those like Star and Dawson, who are on the larger end of what Padelford calls social influencer selling. Think brands like fitness apparel creators Gymshark, or personalities such as Kylie Jenner who can tap their networks to instantly bring “high quality, low volume goods” into the world. The physics of the internet, Padelford says, make this kind of influencer-driven commerce a bigger selling channel by the day.
But what really has made the Shopify platform a bit of a juggernaut is its comprehensiveness. Launched in 2006 by three friends who couldn’t find an e-commerce solution for their nascent snowboard company, Snowdevil, and decided to build their own platform, it’s grown into a one-stop shop for aspiring merchants and makers. Currently, 1.4 million full-time jobs globally are supported by companies using Shopify. A basic subscription plan costs $29 a month, and lets a seller set up a simple web store, which can then be customized with tools to do marketing, manage social media, and keep track of inventory and shipping. There’s an entire ecosystem of app designers as well as marketing agencies who custom build stores on Shopify. Last year, the company announced plans to invest $1 billion over five years on warehouse space and robotics to build out a fulfillment network so Shopify can also deliver your packages.
“The simple answer is, Shopify has made it super easy to get into the ecommerce game as a small player and stand out on your own merit,” says Paul Munford, editor-in-chief of Lean Luxe, a newsletter focused on the modern luxury marketplace.
“Shopify has made it super easy to get into the ecommerce game as a small player and stand out on your own merit.”
It’s now a world in itself, a very profitable one that makes money off software subscriptions, payment processing, and other merchant services. The company expects to see roughly $1.5 billion in revenue in 2019, a 50 percent jump from the previous year, and continues to see strong growth in subscription revenue. This past Black Friday/Cyber Monday weekend, the company saw $2.9 billion in total sales; during its peak, Shopify software was processing $1.5 million in sales and 16,000 checkouts a minute.
Padelford and other company executives will tell you Shopify is “arming the rebels,” both a boast about the company’s focus on small, independent business, and a dig at Amazon, the truly dominant force in online shopping, which boasts a marketplace with more than 8 million sellers and captures a third of all e-commerce sales. Shopify argues that by creating a merchant-first software product and constantly adapting to fast-moving changes in how we shop online, it helps support more entrepreneurship and new business, which ends up benefitting the consumer in the long run.
As Padelford would tell merchants, “Amazon is like a mall owner who will open an identical store next to you, sell all of your products at a cheaper price, and try to convince consumers it’s the same thing. That’s not actually a mall owner, that’s a competitor masquerading as a mall owner.” He doesn’t see Shopify as the Amazon competitor; the software company’s customers are in the real fight, he’s just one of the arms dealers.
Vox/Recode contributor and digital marketing expert Scott Galloway puts it more bluntly: “Amazon partners with companies the way a virus partners with a host.”
Part of the reason Shopify has maintained its trajectory and relevance is due to a focus on adaptation in tandem with shopping. Take the company’s current focus on in-store shopping, which may seem an unorthodox avenue for a software company. According to Craig Miller, the company’s Chief Product Officer, Shopify’s new point-of-sale technology, including hardware to use in store, came after a realization that brick-and-mortar and online shopping were blurring, especially at a time when direct-to-consumer brands were seeking to open physical retail stores en masse.
Think of a buyer who tries something on in the store and wants it shipped to their house, or someone who sees a dress they like online and wants to see if they can try it on in the store. Because Shopify already provides many merchants with payment, inventory, and shipping services, adding new POS terminals in stores to accommodate this kind of behavior is relatively easy.
This past Black Friday/Cyber Monday weekend, the company saw $2.9 billion in total sales.
“Some of these tools have been available to very large retailers, but for small retailers, they often have multiple systems they need to coordinate,” says Miller.
Most of the new initiatives Miller is currently focused on have this same idea in mind, leveraging Shopify’s size to provide crucial technology to small merchants to level the playing field. An initiative to simplify shipping, exchange rates, and international sales to make it easier for small businesses to sell globally is “creating more opportunity for merchants.” Miller and his team are even working on augmented reality. By helping merchants create 3D models of their goods that, in the near future, may be used with smartphone apps to virtually view how a product looks in physical space before purchasing, Miller believes he can help smaller sellers keep up with tech trends, as well as improve conversion rates and cut down on returns.
That’s one of the main reasons Shopify has moved into fulfillment. Today’s shopping standard is clicking “buy” and seeing an Amazon Prime box on your doorstep the next day. Shopify wants to use its size to set up a fulfillment network that small merchants can take advantage of, and offer similarly fast shipping (two-day delivery across 99 percent of the United States).
“We’re able to offer those services to startups as if they were a multibillion dollar retailer, all within their first few months of being open,” says Miller.
Shopify’s plan is to lease warehouse space, and utilize robotics technology from a company called 6 River Systems, which they purchased in October for $450 million. Shopify will also use the vast amounts of data they have collected on sales and shipping, as well as machine learning, to optimize the logistics network and pre-positioning of goods for quicker shipping. Companies that sign up for the program can even have their own logo stamped on the box, unlike Amazon third-party sellers, which end up advertising Bezos’s latest project.
Trying to take on Amazon and its fulfillment network is a daunting task. That $1 billion investment Shopify is making may sound massive, but Amazon plans to spend $64 billion on logistics and shipping alone in 2019. And fulfillment means warehouses and a different labor force, a complication Shopify hasn’t dealt with before. When asked what would make a Shopify warehouse better than an Amazon warehouse, in terms of pay and labor standards and environmental impact, Miller didn’t provide specifics, but did say that “while we were inspired by the idea of someone getting an item as fast as possible, we would not repeat the terrible warehouse conditions that allow it to happen.” That means strict guidelines as to which warehouses they’d work with, and potentially using carbon neutral or compostable packaging.
It’s a big investment and gamble for Shopify, one that’s uncertain to pay off. Munford believes it’s something the company needs to do. Web Smith, editor of 2PM, a newsletter that covers media and commerce, sees it as more of a long-term play.
“When the time comes for Shopify to be a complete, holistic ecosystem from start to finish, they’ll have touchpoints around the country to help you get packages from point A to B as efficiently as possible,” he says. “A lot of people don’t see what they’re doing, but that’ll be the end result.”
The build-out of a nationwide logistics and fulfillment network plays into the Shopify versus Amazon narrative. But perhaps those aren’t the only players to worry about. Success in e-commerce often comes down to friction, and the lack thereof, and many new players see opportunities to shake things up.
Instagram has recently pushed into commerce, launching a sales feature in April that makes it possible for the influencer seller to market and monetize their audience directly from the platform. Both Miller and Padelford will tell you that’s actually to Shopify’s advantage; merchants may find new platforms to sell, but they still need a system that can tie everything in together, and Shopify still offers that at an affordable price. There’s also the threat of new platforms launching.
“I feel like a new wave of companies is coming, and whoever makes it easier for companies to take their stores to market will capture them in a big way,” says Lean Luxe’s Munford.
One of those upstart platforms he’s keeping an eye on is Elliot, a new shopping marketplace launched in Brooklyn last October that now boasts 1,300 merchants from 86 countries. Marco Marandiz, one of the three co-founders, boasts the merchants can go live more quickly than they can on Shopify, again using a no-code approach, and the only cost is a 1 percent fee for every sale. That’s why merchants like Brittany Chavez chose Elliot. She founded ShopLatinX, a curated Instagram feed showcasing Latinx makers and merchants, in 2016, and when she decided to turn it into a store last fall, she found Shopify too complicated, and struggled to get apps from third-party developers to work.
“Shopify built the tech that we take for granted,” Marandiz says. “We allow people to set up and do it in a day. We’re moving with the trends of people building audiences and coming upon celebrity overnight.”
Smith says that’s he’s always believed that the Shopify ecosystem — whether its Unite, the partnerships, or Twitter evangelists in the tech world — is the X factor. But when you have an outside company like Elliot trying to do the same thing in a guerilla fashion, it’s both a validation, and may, down the road, be a threat. It’s hard to be a billion-dollar upstart.
Sign up for The Goods newsletter. Twice a week, we’ll send you the best Goods stories exploring what we buy, why we buy it, and why it matters.


vox--2020-01-23--House Democrats are using Lindsey Graham’s own words to rebut the president’s defense

House Democrats , on the second day of their opening arguments at the Senate impeachment trial , used a familiar face to make their case against President Donald Trump .
In a 1999 video clip played on the Senate floor , Sen. Lindsey Graham ( R-SC ) , a close ally of the president , can be seen directly contradicting a core plank of Trump ’ s current defense .
So far , Trump ’ s counsel has argued that his actions do not constitute a crime or a violation of the law , and as such , do not @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for impeachment .
This reasoning is flawed for a variety of reasons , as Vox ’ s Ian Millhiser has explained , and it appears Graham once agreed .
In a clip introduced by House impeachment manager Jerry Nadler , Graham is seen explaining — during President Bill Clinton ’ s impeachment trial in 1999 — why an abuse of power by the president qualifies as a “ high crime and misdemeanor.
” “ What ’ s a high crime ?
” Graham says in the video .
“ It doesn ’ t @ @ @ @ @ @ @ It ’ s just when you start using your office and you ’ re acting in a way that hurts people , you ’ ve committed a high crime.
” The two articles of impeachment passed by the House last December charge Trump with abuse of power in his alleged efforts to obtain political favors in exchange for military aid to Ukraine , and obstruction of Congress .
As Millhiser wrote , Trump counsel ’ s pushback on these charges isn ’ t exactly backed by legal experts or existing precedent : There @ @ @ @ @ @ @ One is that Trump ’ s effort to pressure Ukraine into opening a political investigation into former Vice President Joe Biden likely violates at least one federal criminal statute .
More importantly , it does not matter whether Trump ’ s actions were criminal — they still may form the basis of an impeachment .
Yes , the Constitution states that public officials may only be impeached for “ high crimes and misdemeanors , ” but that phrase had an expansive meaning when it was written into the Constitution .
As Justice Joseph @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are many offences , purely political , which have been held to be within the reach of parliamentary impeachments , not one of which is , in the slightest manner , alluded to in the statute books.
” And Nadler , for much of his Thursday remarks hammered on this exact point , citing testimony from numerous legal scholars including Jonathan Turley , an expert witness called by House Republicans last year .
“ Everyone except President Trump and his lawyers agree that presidents can be impeached for abuse of power , ” @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , including Graham ’ s younger self .

House Democrats, on the second day of their opening arguments at the Senate impeachment trial, used a familiar face to make their case against President Donald Trump. In a 1999 video clip played on the Senate floor, Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC), a close ally of the president, can be seen directly contradicting a core plank of Trump’s current defense.
So far, Trump’s counsel has argued that his actions do not constitute a crime or a violation of the law, and as such do not meet the threshold needed for impeachment. This reasoning is flawed for a variety of reasons, as Vox’s Ian Millhiser has explained, and it appears Graham once agreed.
In a clip introduced by House impeachment manager Jerry Nadler, Graham is seen explaining — during President Bill Clinton’s impeachment trial in 1999 — why an abuse of power by the president qualifies as a “high crime and misdemeanor.”
“What’s a high crime?” Graham says in the video. “It doesn’t even have to be a crime. It’s just when you start using your office and you’re acting in a way that hurts people, you’ve committed a high crime.”
The two articles of impeachment passed by the House last December charge Trump with abuse of power in his alleged efforts to obtain political favors in exchange for military aid to Ukraine, and obstruction of Congress.
As Millhiser wrote, Trump’s counsel’s pushback on these charges isn’t exactly backed by legal experts or existing precedent:
There are two problems with this argument. One is that Trump’s effort to pressure Ukraine into opening a political investigation into former Vice President Joe Biden likely violates at least one federal criminal statute. More importantly, it does not matter whether Trump’s actions were criminal — they still may form the basis of an impeachment. Yes, the Constitution states that public officials may only be impeached for “high crimes and misdemeanors,” but that phrase had an expansive meaning when it was written into the Constitution. As Justice Joseph Story explained in 1833, “there are many offences, purely political, which have been held to be within the reach of parliamentary impeachments, not one of which is, in the slightest manner, alluded to in the statute books.”
And Nadler for much of his Thursday remarks hammered on this exact point, citing testimony from numerous legal scholars including Jonathan Turley, an expert witness called by House Republicans last year.
“Everyone except President Trump and his lawyers agree that presidents can be impeached for abuse of power,” Nadler emphasized. Everyone, it seems, including Graham’s younger self.


vox--2020-01-23--Republicans complain about the impeachment trial’s lack of new evidence while blocking new evidence

As Democratic impeachment managers made the case against President Donald Trump on Wednesday and Thursday , Republican senators rolled out a rationale for their future vote to acquit : that the trial is a waste of time because Democrats aren ’ t presenting new evidence .
“ So far what [ head impeachment manager Adam Schiff ] has said we ’ ve heard before , ” said Mike Braun ( IN ) on Wednesday .
“ I didn ’ t hear anything new today .
We ’ ll see , ” added Pat Toomey ( PA ) .
Rick Scott @ @ @ @ @ @ @ lack of new evidence , repeatedly characterized the trial as “ boring ” during TV interviews .
But on Tuesday night , every Republican senator took vote after vote to block impeachment managers from gathering new documents and compelling witness testimony .
So Republicans are complaining about Democrats not doing something they ’ re preventing them from doing .
This point was made succinctly by Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer ( NY ) during a news conference held just before Wednesday ’ s hearing .
“ What are the Republicans saying ?
Well @ @ @ @ @ @ @ nothing new .
But these Republicans voted nine times on Tuesday against amendments to ensure new witnesses and new documents , ” he said .
“ The same Republicans saying they heard nothing new just voted nine times to hear nothing new.
” Kamala Harris ( CA ) made the point as well .
This is apparent to anyone who has been following the trial .
But the fact that Republicans are pushing the “ no new evidence ” talking point illustrates the extent to which their strategy to defend Trump rests on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ case .
Senators took an oath to be impartial jurors , but they want to acquit without a full accounting of the evidence More than a half dozen Senate Republicans have used the “ nothing new ” talking point to dismiss the impeachment trial this week .
“ Six hours of testimony so far today since I didn ’ t hear anything new , at all , ” said John Barrasso ( WY ) on Wednesday .
“ So this overwhelming evidence that ’ s going to be presented to the Senate , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ I ’ ve seen , heard nothing new whatsoever , ” added Tim Scott ( SC ) .
It has also gotten a lot of play on Fox News , which Schumer described during his news conference as an outlet where “ at best things are left out , and at worst terribly distorted.
” Josh Hawley ( MO ) joined Tucker Carlson ’ s show on Wednesday evening and lamented that Democrats are “ not even trying to put on evidence .
They don ’ t even have any evidence.
” It @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Friends discussion on Thursday featuring former congressman Jason Chaffetz .
The GOP position might be defensible if there was no evidence to present .
But a number of key figures didn ’ t testify during the House impeachment inquiry ( John Bolton and Mick Mulvaney arguably foremost among them ) , and Schiff pointed out on Wednesday that investigators haven ’ t been able to get their hands on key documents because of Trump administration stonewalling .
“ Would you like me to read that to you right now ?
” Trump said @ @ @ @ @ @ @ former acting US ambassador to Ukraine William Taylor sent to Secretary of State Mike Pompeo in which he expressed concerns about the Trump administration ’ s hold-up of military aid to the country .
“ I would like to read it to you right now , except I don ’ t have it , because the State Department wouldn ’ t provide it .
But if you ’ d like me to read it to you , we can do something about that .
We can insist on getting that from the State @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the asking , and a document called a subpoena.
” You don ’ t have to take it from Schiff , however .
Ironically , comments made by staunch Trump defender Sen. John Kennedy ( R-LA ) perhaps best illustrate the absurdity of the GOP ’ s position that a fair trial can be conducted without all the evidence .
“ I think most if not all senators are hearing the case by the prosecution and the case by the defense for the first time , ” Kennedy said during a break on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in the United States Senate , nine out of 10 senators will tell you they have not read the transcript of the proceedings in the House and the tenth senator who says he has or she has is lying.
” Kennedy , in short , is acknowledging that Republican senators largely aren ’ t familiar with the evidence that ’ s already available , let alone testimony and documents the Trump administration has blocked .
So on the assumption that the jurors intend to follow through on their oath to “ do impartial @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on the facts , you ’ d think they ’ d want to see all the relevant evidence first .
But as the votes on Tuesday indicated , Republicans seemingly resolved to acquit Trump before the proceedings even began .
And many of them apparently can ’ t even be bothered to come up with a non-circular rationale for doing so .
Weak talking points in Trump ’ s defense might be sufficient for Fox News , which went to drastic lengths to spin the first day of the trial .
But Schumer @ @ @ @ @ @ @ conference on Thursday that he doesn ’ t think it ’ ll be good enough for voters .
“ I will say this to my Republican friends : If the American people believe this is not a fair trial , which right now they seem to believe because there are no witnesses and documents , acquittal will have zero value to the president or the Republicans , ” he said .
The news moves fast .
To stay updated , follow Aaron Rupar on Twitter , and read more of Vox ’ s @ @ @ @ @

As Democratic impeachment managers made the case against President Donald Trump on Wednesday and Thursday, Republican senators rolled out a rationale for their future vote to acquit: that the trial is a waste of time because Democrats aren’t presenting new evidence.
“So far what [head impeachment manager Adam Schiff] has said we’ve heard before,” said Mike Braun (IN) on Wednesday. “I didn’t hear anything new today. We’ll see,” added Pat Toomey (PA). Rick Scott (FL), alluding to the lack of new evidence, repeatedly characterized the trial as “boring” during TV interviews.
But on Tuesday night, every Republican senator took vote after vote to block impeachment managers from gathering new documents and compelling witness testimony. So Republicans are complaining about Democrats not doing something they’re preventing them from doing.
This point was made succinctly by Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (NY) during a news conference held just before Wednesday’s hearing.
“What are the Republicans saying? Well, they’re saying they heard nothing new. But these Republicans voted nine times on Tuesday against amendments to ensure new witnesses and new documents,” he said. “The same Republicans saying they heard nothing new just voted nine times to hear nothing new.”
SCHUMER: "What are the Republicans saying? Well, they're saying they heard nothing new. But these Republicans voted 9 times on Tuesday against amendments to ensure new witnesses & new documents ... the same Rs saying they heard nothing new just voted 9 times to hear nothing new." pic.twitter.com/SkMOsaUgog — Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) January 23, 2020
Kamala Harris (CA) made the point as well.
Let's be clear about something. On Tuesday, every single Republican senator voted to block access to firsthand witnesses and relevant documents.
And now they have to gall to say that so far in the trial, they haven't learned anything new.
They can’t have it both ways. — Kamala Harris (@SenKamalaHarris) January 23, 2020
This is apparent to anyone who has been following the trial. But the fact that Republicans are pushing the “no new evidence” talking point illustrates the extent to which their strategy to defend Trump rests on deflection and dodges instead of an actual case.
Senators took an oath to be impartial jurors, but they want to acquit without a full accounting of the evidence
More than a half dozen Senate Republicans have used the “nothing new” talking point to dismiss the impeachment trial this week.
“Six hours of testimony so far today since I didn’t hear anything new, at all,” said John Barrasso (WY) on Wednesday. “So this overwhelming evidence that’s going to be presented to the Senate, I guess they did it yesterday because I’ve seen, heard nothing new whatsoever,” added Tim Scott (SC).
It has also gotten a lot of play on Fox News, which Schumer described during his news conference as an outlet where “at best things are left out, and at worst terribly distorted.” Josh Hawley (MO) joined Tucker Carlson’s show on Wednesday evening and lamented that Democrats are “not even trying to put on evidence. They don’t even have any evidence.”
Josh Hawley on Tucker Carlson's show last night: "They're not even trying to put on evidence. [Democrats] don't even have any evidence."
Hawley has repeatedly voted against gathering new documents and testimony during the #ImpeachmentTrial. pic.twitter.com/JXjeB8C84P — Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) January 23, 2020
It was also showcased during a Fox & Friends discussion on Thursday featuring former congressman Jason Chaffetz.
Step 1: Dems try repeatedly to get new evidence into the trial
Step 2: Republicans repeatedly vote it down
Step 3: Fox criticizes Dems for having no new evidence.
Rinse and repeat.
Fox's Jason Chaffetz: "It had nothing to do with proving the facts, there was no new evidence" pic.twitter.com/LSdPEKkzGE — Lis Power (@LisPower1) January 23, 2020
The GOP position might be defensible if there was no evidence to present. But a number of key figures didn’t testify during the House impeachment inquiry (John Bolton and Mick Mulvaney arguably foremost among them), and Schiff pointed out on Wednesday that investigators haven’t been able to get their hands on key documents because of Trump administration stonewalling.
“Would you like me to read that to you right now?” Schiff said, referring to an unusual first-person cable former acting US ambassador to Ukraine William Taylor sent to Secretary of State Mike Pompeo in which he expressed concerns about the Trump administration’s hold-up of military aid to the country. “I would like to read it to you right now, except I don’t have it, because the State Department wouldn’t provide it. But if you’d like me to read it to you, we can do something about that. We can insist on getting that from the State Department ... it’s just for the asking, and a document called a subpoena.”
You don’t have to take it from Schiff, however. Ironically, comments made by staunch Trump defender Sen. John Kennedy (R-LA) perhaps best illustrate the absurdity of the GOP’s position that a fair trial can be conducted without all the evidence.
“I think most if not all senators are hearing the case by the prosecution and the case by the defense for the first time,” Kennedy said during a break on Wednesday evening. “If you polled in the United States Senate, nine out of 10 senators will tell you they have not read the transcript of the proceedings in the House and the tenth senator who says he has or she has is lying.”
Kennedy, in short, is acknowledging that Republican senators largely aren’t familiar with the evidence that’s already available, let alone testimony and documents the Trump administration has blocked. So on the assumption that the jurors intend to follow through on their oath to “do impartial justice” and render a verdict based on the facts, you’d think they’d want to see all the relevant evidence first.
But as the votes on Tuesday indicated, Republicans seemingly resolved to acquit Trump before the proceedings even began. And many of them apparently can’t even be bothered to come up with a non-circular rationale for doing so.
Related Fox News devised a way to cover the impeachment trial without covering it at all
Weak talking points in Trump’s defense might be sufficient for Fox News, which went to drastic lengths to spin the first day of the trial. But Schumer warned at the end of his news conference on Thursday that he doesn’t think it’ll be good enough for voters.
“I will say this to my Republican friends: If the American people believe this is not a fair trial, which right now they seem to believe because there are no witnesses and documents, acquittal will have zero value to the president or the Republicans,” he said.
The news moves fast. To stay updated, follow Aaron Rupar on Twitter, and read more of Vox’s policy and politics coverage.


vox--2020-01-23--The Doomsday Clock is now at “100 seconds to midnight.” Here’s what that means.

The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists was founded in 1945 by researchers who worked on the atomic bomb .
It publishes research on “ manmade existential threats such as nuclear war , climate change , and disruptive technologies.
” And lately , it ’ s been a little bit , well , doomsaying .
Its famous extinction clock has hovered for the last few years at “ two minutes to midnight ” — as pessimistic a future as it predicted in 1953 during the volatile early Cold War .
On Thursday , the group moved the clock again , announcing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ midnight.
” The change from minutes to seconds is a bit awkward , but it solves an important problem for the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists : while the world does seem to be getting more dangerous , the danger mostly isn ’ t imminent ( global civilization is overwhelmingly likely to survive the year 2020 ) , and the Bulletin likely wants the ability to have some granularity in its risk assessments from one year to the next year .
The overall assessment that accompanied the 100-second clock unveiling is a gloomy @ @ @ @ @ @ @ faced last year are still facing us , and we have less time than ever to solve them .
Both nuclear war and catastrophic effects from climate change , the Bulletin argues , grew more dangerous in 2019 — and world leaders made things worse .
“ This situation — two major threats to human civilization , amplified by sophisticated , technology-propelled propaganda — would be serious enough if leaders around the world were focused on managing the danger and reducing the risk of catastrophe , ” the Bulletin statement read .
“ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , we have seen influential leaders denigrate and discard the most effective methods for addressing complex threats — international agreements with strong verification regimes — in favor of their own narrow interests and domestic political gain.
” The result , the group argues , is that we ’ re closer to doomsday than we ’ ve ever been .
To claim that things are worse than they were during the Cold War — when , on occasion , we avoided nuclear armageddon only through the good instincts of a random person in the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is a very strong claim .
The Bulletin announcement addresses this criticism head-on .
“ To say the world is nearer to doomsday today than during the Cold War — when the United States and the Soviet Union had tens of thousands more nuclear weapons than they now possess — is to make a profound assertion that demands serious explanation , ” the statement reads .
But it argues it ’ s warranted because the old risks remain present while new risks including artificial intelligence and bioterrorism have joined them , and our @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of the challenge .
And while the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists emphasizes , as it did last year , that the clock can move backward as well as forward , and that humanity ’ s future remains in our hands right up until midnight strikes , the overall tone of the message is distinctly pessimistic .
What the Doomsday Clock can tell us and what it can ’ t In many ways , that pessimism is warranted .
Humanity is now extremely unlikely to keep warming to the long-targeted 1.5 degrees Celsius @ @ @ @ @ @ @ many of the most severe effects of a changing climate .
Iran is probably going to develop nuclear weapons to defend itself in the face of renewed US hostility .
Populist authoritarians are likely to be in charge — at least a little while longer — in many countries whose investment in global institutions and international cooperation is badly needed .
But on the whole , I ’ m not persuaded that a second hand inching closer to doom is the right way to think about the challenges ahead of us — climate @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , and it is killing people and animals right now .
Over time , it will get worse and kill more people and animals .
It is profoundly unlikely that it will wipe humanity out .
It ’ s not some cathartic , cleansing doomsday we ’ re racing toward , just a worse world where more people suffer .
And as my colleague David Roberts argued : We ’ ve heard about the importance of optimism for combating climate change , and about the importance of panic .
With its Doomsday Clock @ @ @ @ @ @ @ seeks to rally the public and policymakers to put us all on a different course .
It ’ s a noble objective — but I do wonder whether a message centered on “ doomsday ” is the right lens through which we should think about our common future .
Sign up for the Future Perfect newsletter and we ’ ll send you a roundup of ideas and solutions for tackling the world ’ s biggest challenges — and how to get better at doing good .
Future Perfect is funded in part by @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Learn more here .

The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists was founded in 1945 by researchers who worked on the atomic bomb. It publishes research on “manmade existential threats such as nuclear war, climate change, and disruptive technologies.”
And lately, it’s been a little bit, well, doomsaying. Its famous extinction clock has hovered for the last few years at “two minutes to midnight” — as pessimistic a future as it predicted in 1953 during the volatile early Cold War.
On Thursday, the group moved the clock again, announcing that we are “100 seconds to midnight.” The change from minutes to seconds is a bit awkward, but it solves an important problem for the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists: while the world does seem to be getting more dangerous, the danger mostly isn’t imminent (global civilization is overwhelmingly likely to survive the year 2020), and the Bulletin likely wants the ability to have some granularity in its risk assessments from one year to the next year.
The overall assessment that accompanied the 100-second clock unveiling is a gloomy one. All of the problems we faced last year are still facing us, and we have less time than ever to solve them. Both nuclear war and catastrophic effects from climate change, the Bulletin argues, grew more dangerous in 2019 — and world leaders made things worse.
“This situation — two major threats to human civilization, amplified by sophisticated, technology-propelled propaganda — would be serious enough if leaders around the world were focused on managing the danger and reducing the risk of catastrophe,” the Bulletin statement read. “Instead, over the last two years, we have seen influential leaders denigrate and discard the most effective methods for addressing complex threats — international agreements with strong verification regimes — in favor of their own narrow interests and domestic political gain.”
The result, the group argues, is that we’re closer to doomsday than we’ve ever been.
To claim that things are worse than they were during the Cold War — when, on occasion, we avoided nuclear armageddon only through the good instincts of a random person in the right place at the right time — is a very strong claim. The Bulletin announcement addresses this criticism head-on.
“To say the world is nearer to doomsday today than during the Cold War — when the United States and the Soviet Union had tens of thousands more nuclear weapons than they now possess — is to make a profound assertion that demands serious explanation,” the statement reads. But it argues it’s warranted because the old risks remain present while new risks including artificial intelligence and bioterrorism have joined them, and our international institutions are crumbling in the face of the challenge.
And while the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists emphasizes, as it did last year, that the clock can move backward as well as forward, and that humanity’s future remains in our hands right up until midnight strikes, the overall tone of the message is distinctly pessimistic.
What the Doomsday Clock can tell us and what it can’t
In many ways, that pessimism is warranted. Humanity is now extremely unlikely to keep warming to the long-targeted 1.5 degrees Celsius, a target that would stave off many of the most severe effects of a changing climate. Iran is probably going to develop nuclear weapons to defend itself in the face of renewed US hostility. Populist authoritarians are likely to be in charge — at least a little while longer — in many countries whose investment in global institutions and international cooperation is badly needed.
But on the whole, I’m not persuaded that a second hand inching closer to doom is the right way to think about the challenges ahead of us — climate change especially. Climate change is bad, and it is killing people and animals right now. Over time, it will get worse and kill more people and animals. It is profoundly unlikely that it will wipe humanity out. It’s not some cathartic, cleansing doomsday we’re racing toward, just a worse world where more people suffer. And as my colleague David Roberts argued:
Framing the choice as “a miracle or extinction” just sets everyone up for massive disappointment, since neither is likely to unfold any time soon. As climate scientist Kate Marvel put it, “Climate change isn’t a cliff we fall off, but a slope we slide down.” Every bit makes it worse. No matter how far down the slope we go, there’s never reason to give up fighting.
We’ve heard about the importance of optimism for combating climate change, and about the importance of panic. With its Doomsday Clock, the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists clearly seeks to rally the public and policymakers to put us all on a different course. It’s a noble objective — but I do wonder whether a message centered on “doomsday” is the right lens through which we should think about our common future.
Sign up for the Future Perfect newsletter and we’ll send you a roundup of ideas and solutions for tackling the world’s biggest challenges — and how to get better at doing good.
vox-mark Sign up for the newsletter Future Perfect Each week, we explore unique solutions to some of the world's biggest problems. Thanks for signing up! Check your inbox for a welcome email. Email (required) Oops. Something went wrong. Please enter a valid email and try again. By submitting your email, you agree to our Terms and Privacy Notice . You can opt out at any time. This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply. For more newsletters, check out our newsletters page Subscribe
Future Perfect is funded in part by individual contributions, grants, and sponsorships. Learn more here.