vox--2020-10-10--Trump may still be infectious. He’s having events anyway.

Despite being hospitalized with Covid-19 just last week , President Donald Trump announced Friday that his campaign would host a number of rallies and in-person events over the next week .
But the White House has been tight-lipped about the president ’ s recent test results , potentially putting the health and safety of thousands of attendees at risk .
The president told Fox News ’ s Sean Hannity on Thursday that he ’ s eager to begin campaigning again , saying that he feels “ so good , ” adding , “ We want to do a rally probably @ @ @ @ @ @ @ might come back and do one in Pennsylvania the following night.
” Ultimately , those events were not scheduled , but Trump on Saturday afternoon is set to speak to supporters on the South Lawn of the White House , his first public event since being diagnosed with the coronavirus that has so far claimed the lives of more than 213,000 Americans .
Around 2,000 people reportedly have been invited .
While the event is likely a violation of the Hatch Act , which imposes strict limits on federal employees ’ participation in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ danger to public health .
After downplaying the Covid-19 pandemic throughout the year , the White House is now dealing with a troubling outbreak within its own walls stemming from a September 26 event at the White House Rose Garden to celebrate the Supreme Court nomination of Judge Amy Coney Barrett .
Several people who spent time at the White House in recent weeks , including former New Jersey Gov .
Chris Christie and White House security official Crede Bailey , have been hospitalized with the virus , and several other administration officials @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the virus .
White House officials and campaign representatives have shared only limited information regarding the status of Trump ’ s health , refusing to confirm when he last tested negative prior to his diagnosis or whether he has tested negative since his hospital release .
The president himself did not provide any clarity during an interview Friday on Fox News .
“ I haven ’ t even found out numbers or anything yet , but I ’ ve been retested , and I know I ’ m at either the bottom of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ told Dr. Marc Siegel on Tucker Carlson Tonight .
Trump could not provide details on his testing regimen , either , and seemed to suggest he was not being tested every day , as his aides have previously claimed .
When asked when he would be tested , he said , “ Probably tomorrow morning , ” before adding , “ They test every couple of days , I guess.
” Trump has stayed within the White House grounds since returning to work on Monday , but resuming public events could once again @ @ @ @ @ @ @ potentially deadly risk .
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention ( CDC ) recommends an infected person isolate for at least 10 days before engaging with other people .
On Thursday , White House physician Dr. Sean Conley cleared Trump for events based on this guidance , saying , “ Saturday will be day 10 since Thursday ’ s diagnosis , and based on the trajectory of advanced diagnostics the team has been conducting , I fully anticipate the president ’ s safe return to public engagements at that time.
” But @ @ @ @ @ @ @ who have been hospitalized or who needed external oxygen — both criteria that apply to Trump — isolate for a total of 20 days after the onset of symptoms to ensure they are no longer infectious .
Conley ’ s assessments of the president have been called into question before ; he made misleading statements last week about Trump ’ s need for oxygen , later saying he misspoke .
However , even if Trump is well enough to participate in rallies , attendees may not be .
And the president ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Saturday ’ s gathering .
On Twitter Friday , Trump announced a “ big rally ” scheduled for Monday in Sanford , Florida , his first campaign stop since his diagnosis .
He is also scheduled to appear in person at rallies in Pennsylvania and Iowa on Tuesday and Wednesday , respectively .
Recent polls show Florida deadlocked between Trump and Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden , making it understandable that the president wants to return quickly to the campaign trail — particularly in a state with so many Electoral College votes on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ could potentially exacerbate worsening Covid-19 numbers in a state that was already struggling to contain the virus .
And the move could easily backfire : According to polling averages from FiveThirtyEight , voters heavily disapprove of how Trump has handled the pandemic .
A Trump event that increases community spread in Florida would only serve to highlight the president ’ s role in failing to contain the coronavirus .
Hundreds of supporters traveling from all over the country are expected to attend Saturday ’ s South Lawn speech , which Trump is scheduled @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
The event , which has been dubbed a “ peaceful protest for law and order , ” was organized in part by conservative activist Candace Owens .
According to ABC News , guests will be required to wear a face mask to enter the White House grounds , but will not be required to wear it once inside .
Guests will also reportedly have their temperature taken and complete a symptom questionnaire .
This sort of screening is limited in its effectiveness .
For one , it misses asymptomatic people ; for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Resnick has explained , scientists are still working to understand both when an infected person can begin to spread the coronavirus and whether infectious people can have negative test results .
All this to say that there may be infectious people in the crowd despite precautions .
And evidence suggests that the event ’ s outdoor venue doesn ’ t mean it isn ’ t a recipe for another White House superspreader event .
For instance , an outdoor Trump rally in Minnesota last month resulted in at least nine infections and two @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to suggest that neither Trump nor anyone else in the White House have learned any lessons from that rally or the Coney Barrett reception .
With dozens of Republican lawmakers and Trump himself refusing to quarantine in the election cycle ’ s final days , some experts are concerned about continued spread — among the GOP , Trump ’ s supporters , and everyone they come into contact with .
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Despite being hospitalized with Covid-19 just last week, President Donald Trump announced Friday that his campaign would host a number of rallies and in-person events over the next week. But the White House has been tight-lipped about the president’s recent test results, potentially putting the health and safety of thousands of attendees at risk.
The president told Fox News’s Sean Hannity on Thursday that he’s eager to begin campaigning again, saying that he feels “so good,” adding, “We want to do a rally probably in Florida on Saturday night. I might come back and do one in Pennsylvania the following night.”
Ultimately, those events were not scheduled, but Trump on Saturday afternoon is set to speak to supporters on the South Lawn of the White House, his first public event since being diagnosed with the coronavirus that has so far claimed the lives of more than 213,000 Americans. Around 2,000 people reportedly have been invited. While the event is likely a violation of the Hatch Act, which imposes strict limits on federal employees’ participation in political activities, it is certainly a danger to public health.
After downplaying the Covid-19 pandemic throughout the year, the White House is now dealing with a troubling outbreak within its own walls stemming from a September 26 event at the White House Rose Garden to celebrate the Supreme Court nomination of Judge Amy Coney Barrett.
Several people who spent time at the White House in recent weeks, including former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and White House security official Crede Bailey, have been hospitalized with the virus, and several other administration officials and Republican lawmakers have tested positive for the virus.
White House officials and campaign representatives have shared only limited information regarding the status of Trump’s health, refusing to confirm when he last tested negative prior to his diagnosis or whether he has tested negative since his hospital release.
The president himself did not provide any clarity during an interview Friday on Fox News. “I haven’t even found out numbers or anything yet, but I’ve been retested, and I know I’m at either the bottom of the scale or free,” Trump told Dr. Marc Siegel on Tucker Carlson Tonight.
Trump could not provide details on his testing regimen, either, and seemed to suggest he was not being tested every day, as his aides have previously claimed. When asked when he would be tested, he said, “Probably tomorrow morning,” before adding, “They test every couple of days, I guess.”
Here’s Trump tonight on Fox News indicating he still has coronavirus pic.twitter.com/iO0xY3nbSN — Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) October 10, 2020
Trump has stayed within the White House grounds since returning to work on Monday, but resuming public events could once again put the people around the president at potentially deadly risk.
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) recommends an infected person isolate for at least 10 days before engaging with other people.
On Thursday, White House physician Dr. Sean Conley cleared Trump for events based on this guidance, saying, “Saturday will be day 10 since Thursday’s diagnosis, and based on the trajectory of advanced diagnostics the team has been conducting, I fully anticipate the president’s safe return to public engagements at that time.”
But the CDC also suggests that Covid-19 patients who have been hospitalized or who needed external oxygen — both criteria that apply to Trump — isolate for a total of 20 days after the onset of symptoms to ensure they are no longer infectious.
Conley’s assessments of the president have been called into question before; he made misleading statements last week about Trump’s need for oxygen, later saying he misspoke. However, even if Trump is well enough to participate in rallies, attendees may not be.
And the president’s upcoming events aren’t limited to Saturday’s gathering. On Twitter Friday, Trump announced a “big rally” scheduled for Monday in Sanford, Florida, his first campaign stop since his diagnosis. He is also scheduled to appear in person at rallies in Pennsylvania and Iowa on Tuesday and Wednesday, respectively.
Recent polls show Florida deadlocked between Trump and Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden, making it understandable that the president wants to return quickly to the campaign trail — particularly in a state with so many Electoral College votes on the line.
But a Trump visit could potentially exacerbate worsening Covid-19 numbers in a state that was already struggling to contain the virus. And the move could easily backfire: According to polling averages from FiveThirtyEight, voters heavily disapprove of how Trump has handled the pandemic. A Trump event that increases community spread in Florida would only serve to highlight the president’s role in failing to contain the coronavirus.
Trump’s upcoming events pose a serious health risk
Hundreds of supporters traveling from all over the country are expected to attend Saturday’s South Lawn speech, which Trump is scheduled to deliver from a White House balcony. The event, which has been dubbed a “peaceful protest for law and order,” was organized in part by conservative activist Candace Owens.
According to ABC News, guests will be required to wear a face mask to enter the White House grounds, but will not be required to wear it once inside. Guests will also reportedly have their temperature taken and complete a symptom questionnaire.
This sort of screening is limited in its effectiveness. For one, it misses asymptomatic people; for another, as Vox’s Brian Resnick has explained, scientists are still working to understand both when an infected person can begin to spread the coronavirus and whether infectious people can have negative test results.
All this to say that there may be infectious people in the crowd despite precautions. And evidence suggests that the event’s outdoor venue doesn’t mean it isn’t a recipe for another White House superspreader event. For instance, an outdoor Trump rally in Minnesota last month resulted in at least nine infections and two hospitalizations.
Today’s speech seems to suggest that neither Trump nor anyone else in the White House have learned any lessons from that rally or the Coney Barrett reception.
With dozens of Republican lawmakers and Trump himself refusing to quarantine in the election cycle’s final days, some experts are concerned about continued spread — among the GOP, Trump’s supporters, and everyone they come into contact with.
ntribute today from as little as $3.


vox--2020-10-10--Why some colleges are winning against Covid-19, and others are losing

Share All sharing options for : Why some colleges are winning against Covid-19 , and others are losing In the last weekend of August , officials in the city of Columbia — home to the University of South Carolina — broke up a pool party where more than 200 college students were packed into a courtyard .
“ It was like Mardi Gras , ” the fire chief told a local paper .
“ Nobody was practicing social distancing .
Nobody was wearing a mask , ” despite a local ordinance requiring so .
“ That was just the perfect @ @ @ @ @ @ @ he later said .
Over the next few days , the university registered more than 435 new Covid-19 cases .
Other illegal parties near the campus , including many held by fraternity and sorority houses , likely also contributed to the spike in cases at the school , which has approximately 35,000 students enrolled this fall ( in a mix of in-person , online , and hybrid classes ) .
Since the start of August , the University of South Carolina has reported more than 2,300 student Covid-19 cases .
And it is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 178,000 estimated coronavirus cases on more than 1,400 college campuses across the US as of October 8 , according to a New York Times tracker .
Most universities are employing familiar , evidence-based measures to fight the coronavirus : distancing , testing , tracing , and isolating .
But the rollout of these policies — and their success in fighting outbreaks — varies widely from school to school .
At some schools , all students must get tested at least once a week if they want to remain on campus .
At others @ @ @ @ @ @ @ difficulty getting tested at all .
Some schools are providing single-occupancy rooms for students who should quarantine after being exposed to the virus , while others send students back to their dorms to wait to see if they get sick .
University officials acknowledged to Vox that they can not prevent every risky party .
But whether a party sparks a large outbreak or a small one comes down not just to students ’ behavior , but also the school ’ s Covid-19 systems that are already in place .
The task of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ students either .
Cases can move through staff and the community at large , especially with many students living off-campus , where rules are difficult to enforce .
“ Universities and colleges are not islands unto themselves , and they exist in their communities , ” says Crystal Watson a public health risk expert at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security .
She says that infections among students are “ essentially feeding cases in the community.
” Indeed , many towns with the highest rates of Covid-19 as the fall semester got @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
So how can universities do their best to support students wanting to do the right thing , and also help nudge others into line ?
Let ’ s take a look at how various schools are handling the key pillars of limiting Covid-19 spread , what seems to be working — and what doesn ’ t .
Sizes of in-person classes vary widely , as does the density of students allowed in on-campus housing We ’ ve known since early in the year that keeping people physically distanced is one of the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ coronavirus , which is why universities sent nearly all of their students home midway through the spring semester .
Over the past two months , however , millions of students have returned to the majority of campuses across the US — campuses where , for the most part , in-person social gatherings are limited and masks are required .
But the similarities often end there .
Although most schools have increased their offerings of online coursework , the number and sizes of in-person classes vary widely , as does the density of students @ @ @ @ @ @ @ students on campus naturally reduces the number of contacts students could have .
It ’ s a sort of passive control strategy — and an important one .
“ That ’ s where we ’ re seeing the biggest outbreaks , where administrations brought all of the students back — or many of the students back , ” Watson says .
At the University of Alabama , for example , only about 15 percent of their 38,000 students enrolled in distance learning for the semester .
And residence halls are mostly full .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ for our on-campus beds , a percentage on par with recent years , ” Deidre Stalnaker , director of the university ’ s communications , wrote to Vox in an email .
Between August 1 and October 1 , the school listed more than 2,500 Covid-19 cases on their main campus , which has been among the top 10 universities with the most reported cases , according to data collected by the New York Times .
( Keep in mind that comparing numbers of positive tests across universities can be problematic because some @ @ @ @ @ @ @ And a smaller school might have higher rates of the virus but among fewer students overall . )
When on-campus housing is close to normal capacity , students often have roommates , shared bathrooms , and other opportunities to unwittingly spread the virus .
Large numbers of students also mean more people frequenting other common areas on campus and off , adding to each student ’ s potential contacts .
So these schools will need more testing , tracing , and isolation and quarantine resources if and when outbreaks start .
Early outbreaks @ @ @ @ @ @ @ their on-campus learning plans altogether .
At the beginning of the semester , for example , the University of North Carolina Chapel Hill , which usually has about 30,000 students , brought many back to campus and had dorms at about 63 percent capacity , with a mix of single and double rooms , the Washington Post reported .
But classes were only in session for nine days before a spike in the test positivity rate to 13.6 percent prompted the school to abruptly end all in-person undergraduate instruction .
Johns Hopkins University @ @ @ @ @ @ @ almost all of its students remote for now .
“ There are obviously massive tradeoffs here , ” she says .
But “ leaning toward more conservative has been better.
” Other schools have brought back only a fraction of undergraduates , restricting on-campus presence to students who truly need to be there for housing or academic reasons .
Watson suggests universities “ focus on having the students on campus who really need to be there because classes they need have hands-on activities , ” for example , she says .
This is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ following , which started its fall quarter on September 30 .
About 90 percent of their classes are virtual , saving in-person learning for things such as health care training , biological research labs , and the like that aren ’ t possible to do virtually , notes Geoffrey Gottlieb , an infectious disease specialist at the University of Washington ’ s School of Public Health who is also chair of the school ’ s advisory committee on communicable diseases .
And the university is keeping its residence halls to about one-third of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ rooms and single bathrooms .
( Although this has not prevented the spread of the virus off campus , where there have been recent outbreaks at fraternity and sorority houses . )
This on-campus de-densifying is important for reducing opportunities for transmission overall , Watson says .
“ This virus spreads really readily , so even one mistake can cause an epidemic , ” she says .
Especially if other measures aren ’ t in place to detect and stop it .
Some schools have made testing mandatory , while others have left @ @ @ @ @ @ @ essential for tracking its spread and knowing when additional containment measures should be put into place .
Undetected cases of Covid-19 on campus mean that there is no way to give these infected students and their contacts instructions about quarantine and isolation , allowing the virus to spread further , especially among those with mild or asymptomatic cases .
But on some university campuses , it hasn ’ t always been easy for students to get tested .
For example , the University of South Carolina stopped its saliva-based testing program for more @ @ @ @ @ @ @ weekend ) due to an ill staff member .
At the time , the school had already confirmed more than 1,000 Covid-19 cases .
When testing resumed , instead of the previous 1,200 saliva tests they had been able to process each day , the university could only run about 200 tests ( although the school notes that they have also been able to offer nasal swab tests for people with symptoms ) .
That number has slowly climbed back up to 1,000 tests per day in the past month .
But getting @ @ @ @ @ @ @ always easy for students .
A sophomore there , Kailey Cota , told Vox that in mid-September on-campus testing had only been available in a two-hour window , Monday through Friday .
“ For me , personally , it ’ s a problem — a lot of students have class during that time , ” says Cota , who is also assistant news editor at the student-run newspaper .
( Testing availability has now been expanded to up to 10 hours a day , depending on the day , rotating through different locations @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that some students who develop symptoms intentionally choose to get tested for the virus off campus — “ that way the numbers for USC don ’ t go up , and they don ’ t close campus , ” she says .
Testing at the University of South Carolina is also entirely voluntary , as it is on many campuses .
Cota says that if a student is contacted by contact tracing and “ told to get tested , that ’ s all on the honor system .
They can not force us @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are hemmed into voluntary testing because of state guidelines , notes Gottlieb . )
A spokesperson for the school notes that it now has more tests available than it can find students to take them .
“ Next week we are launching new incentives for students to get tested on a randomized basis — [ with ] free T-shirts [ and ] the chance to win prizes — in order to combat testing fatigue and help us better understand the spread of the virus , ” Jeff Stensland , the University of South @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , wrote to Vox in an email over the weekend .
“ We have seen that our capacity is outpacing demand for testing , which is part of the reason we ’ re offering the incentives.
” The University of South Carolina has now reported more than 2,300 student cases — of about 19,700 student tests — between August 1 and October 1 ( a more than 10.5 percent test positivity rate over two months ) .
In the last week of September , however , the university was averaging only about 265 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ which were positive each day .
Based in part on this low number of detected cases , the school marks the current campus status as below a low-risk level : a green “ new normal.
” ( Which is difficult to determine based on how few students had been getting tested on campus . )
On September 10 , Deborah Birx , the leader of the White House coronavirus task force , visited the university and recommended additional surveillance testing on campus ( which is part of the school ’ s new efforts @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to use it ) , as well as sending a government team to provide additional testing for the city of Columbia .
Experts note that a broad testing approach is crucial .
“ Schools that have done the best so far have had a layered testing strategy , ” Watson says .
Specifically , they have tested everyone when they arrived on campus for the semester ( or required proof of recent negative test ) , they test anyone with symptoms or known positive contacts , and they have broad ongoing surveillance testing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is not a full Covid-19 strategy in itself , as the White House outbreak also shows .
Testing is just a window to look through to observe the virus ’ s spread — and see if mitigation efforts need to be stepped up , Watson says .
Which is what some schools , such as the University of Illinois , have done .
The University of Illinois created an ambitious campus testing program , requiring every on-campus student to get tested at least twice a week with the school ’ s rapid saliva @ @ @ @ @ @ @ more than 466,000 Covid-19 tests since early July . )
However , just several days into the semester , it detected 320 new cases in a single day , bringing its campus-wide test positivity to almost 3 percent ( because of universal regular testing , this was close to the true campus infection level ) .
The next week , administrators put the campus on lockdown for two weeks .
The lockdown drastically slowed case spread ; the test positivity rate has stayed below 1 percent since early September ( and is currently @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the university continues to conduct more than 10,000 tests on a typical day to monitor for new outbreaks .
“ The University of Illinois has been a model program , ” Gottlieb says .
Widespread surveillance testing can catch these outbreaks “ before they get completely out of hand , ” he says , prompting effective scaled-up containment strategies .
The delicate task of contact tracing on campus Manual contact tracing , the type the US has been using to track potential Covid-19 cases , has been a challenge even among non-college adults @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to give the names of friends or the businesses they have frequented .
Translating this approach to college students has been particularly difficult .
Which makes sense .
If you ’ re a college student who has been casual with the school ’ s Covid-19 rules around in-person gatherings , would you admit it — and name your close friends who have as well ?
Especially if this means you all might end up isolated in quarantine for two weeks ?
Universities have some leverage because they can require students to at least @ @ @ @ @ @ @ as a condition of their return to campus , Watson points out .
( Many schools , including Ohio State University , have included this in their student Covid-19 pledge , for example . )
However , it doesn ’ t make the calculus of compliance much easier .
“ There are lots of disincentives [ for students ] in reporting exposures or cases , ” Watson says .
“ I think schools have to be creative and help students manage their way through this and try not to be punitive because that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ schools are taking the punitive route .
The University of Alabama , which had more than 2,000 student Covid-19 cases three weeks into its semester , announced that it was issuing more than 600 Covid-19-related sanctions to students , including 33 suspensions .
Many other schools have been meting out disciplinary measures to students who break Covid-19 rules , including , more recently , Iowa State University and the University of Colorado .
“ That ’ s a delicate balance , ” Gottlieb says , in “ trying to dissuade that behavior , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ folks to not report and not get tested .
I don ’ t know if anyone has the perfect answer.
” The University of Washington , where he works , has told students that it will not use tracing information to discipline students , in an effort to encourage them to participate .
At the University of Illinois , one of the reasons cases started to spike at the end of August , university experts determined , was that modelers failed to take into account students ’ reluctance to comply with contact tracing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ modeler Nigel Goldenfeld noted in an online discussion , “ What ’ s not in the model is that students would fail to isolate , that they would not respond to efforts to reach them by [ contact tracers ] , that they would go to a party even if they knew they were Covid-positive , ” the Daily Illini student newspaper reported .
Additionally , some Illinois students were not entering correct data into their symptom-tracker app ( these are being used widely on campuses but also have mixed incentives for students @ @ @ @ @ @ @ those with the best of intentions , it can just be difficult to remember who you have been within 6 feet of for at least 15 minutes , especially on a busy college campus where many people are strangers .
This was true even when most college students were at home .
Back in April , “ we found that participants could not always precisely recall who they had been within six feet of , ” Alison Cohen , an epidemiologist at Stanford University ’ s School of Medicine , who has conducted @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Covid-19 pandemic , wrote to Vox in an email .
“ This will likely be even more difficult as students are more mobile this fall.
” Not all universities have been able to provide comfortable housing promptly for isolating and quarantining students Isolating people with Covid-19 from others is an essential step for stopping the spread of the virus .
Quarantining people who might have the virus — because they had close contact with someone confirmed to have it — is also crucial .
But not all universities have been able to quickly @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Alex Bransteter , a sophomore living on campus at Ohio State University , posted on Twitter about his disappointment in the conditions of his quarantine room at the school , where there had already been more than 2,600 positive student Covid-19 tests in mid-September .
“ My A/C has black speckles on it , the room was very dusty , weird stains on the walls , and the window couldn ’ t open , ” he wrote to Vox in an email from his room .
( Administrators at the university said that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ isolation to new rooms if they alert staff of any issues , and that the windows in that particular high-rise building were designed to not open . )
At the University of South Carolina , some students have been isolated in a dorm that was slated for demolition soon , Bates West .
“ I ’ m sure students wanted to avoid going there , ” Cota says .
“ Bates West was one of the grossest dorms on campus.
” As one student who was sent there told Vice , “ the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the AC didn ’ t work.
” Other students in quarantine or isolation at the school complained of poor wifi that led to disruptions in their virtual classes .
These sorts of unappealing accommodations at some schools ( which get shared readily on social media ) are not adding any incentives for students to comply with voluntary testing or contact tracing .
“ Institutions of higher education should make the isolation experience easy and affordable and an acceptable alternative to how students would otherwise spend their time , ” Cohen says .
Additionally @ @ @ @ @ @ @ or quarantine should be offered benefits such as paid sick leave from work if they don ’ t already have it .
Schools can also help students prevent further spread of the virus by using the different strategies of isolation and quarantine most effectively .
Students who have tested positive for the virus can isolate together , potentially opening up additional on-campus housing space .
However , the same is not the case for people told to quarantine .
“ Students should not be quarantined together if they ’ ve been exposed , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ run the additional risk of passing the virus along.
” Some universities are offering up individual quarantine options for students who live on campus .
For example , the University of Texas , with assistance from the City of Austin , has made free hotel rooms ( with wifi and food ) available to these students so they can safely quarantine away from others .
But individual quarantine is a big hurdle for many schools .
“ This makes it really hard for colleges and universities because that requires a lot of single-occupancy @ @ @ @ @ @ @ schools that have brought back a large portion of their students .
Students could also conceivably be put into single-person quarantine , for two weeks at a stretch , multiple times throughout the semester as they come into contact with different people who test positive , perhaps even adding another disincentive for contact compliance .
“ For college students , 14 days is a long time to be without close physical contact with your social group , ” Leah Brunner , a graduate student at the Colorado School of Public Health who studies @ @ @ @ @ @ @ undergraduates this semester , wrote to Vox in an email .
This sort of isolation also carries additional social stigma on some campuses , she says .
“ Many students feel shamed.
” For students who live off campus , which is frequently the majority of the student body at large universities , there is also often little schools can do to encourage proper quarantining or isolation practices , other than supply information and recommendations , and possible threats of discipline .
On campus , the New York Times has reported that some @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , or police to help students adhere to the rules while they are in isolation or quarantine .
Plenty of students see what their institutions could be doing better to help them help their school ’ s efforts .
There are some very basic improvements that Cota sees her school , for example , could make to help decrease the spread of Covid-19 around campus .
She lists : expanding the hours for testing , improving the communications from campus health officials , and trying to make quarantine and isolation stays better .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ the blame on in the opening weeks , ” Bransteter , the Ohio State sophomore , said .
“ But it was the plans put in place that were completely not ready for 30,000+ students to come on campus .
...
The university put forward a lackluster plan for the school year and had to adapt simultaneously with us students .
Personally , every week contributed to the anxiety of contracting Covid-19.
” Ohio State has now reported more than 2,900 cases ( but has an overall test positivity rate of less than @ @ @ @ @ @ @ tests since mid-August ) .
To be sure , everyone has a role to play in managing Covid-19 on university campuses .
“ The key is sharing the responsibility , ” Watson says .
“ It shouldn ’ t be all students ’ responsibility to follow all these rules and stop outbreaks — these are college kids , and it ’ s not totally realistic .
I think leadership has the responsibility to manage risk , to have fewer students on campus , to manage outbreaks before they occur , ” she says @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , the majority of undergraduates are doing their part to follow their school ’ s rules — and sometimes even doing more than they are asked .
Cohen and her colleagues found that undergrads have often gone above and beyond local health recommendations , for example having restricted their contact with others even before stay-at-home orders were issued in the spring .
And universities should be sure to support the students who choose to be extra cautious , she says .
“ All colleges should make it possible for students who make more @ @ @ @ @ @ @ nevertheless be able to participate actively in coursework and other activities throughout the Covid-19 pandemic , ” Cohen says .
But as universities strive to keep Covid-19 from spiraling on their campus , “ any ideal Covid-19 containment strategy would likely require a lot of resources , ” Cohen says , whether that comes in the form of low-density housing , widespread surveillance testing , robust contact tracing , additional accommodations for quarantining students , or other offerings .
“ This [ question of campus resources ] could become another axis upon which @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ” she notes .
Katherine Harmon Courage is a freelance science journalist and author of Cultured and Octopus !
Find her on Twitter at @ KHCourage .
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Share All sharing options for: Why some colleges are winning against Covid-19, and others are losing
In the last weekend of August, officials in the city of Columbia — home to the University of South Carolina — broke up a pool party where more than 200 college students were packed into a courtyard. “It was like Mardi Gras,” the fire chief told a local paper. “Nobody was practicing social distancing. Nobody was wearing a mask,” despite a local ordinance requiring so. “That was just the perfect storm to spread the virus,” he later said.
Over the next few days, the university registered more than 435 new Covid-19 cases. Other illegal parties near the campus, including many held by fraternity and sorority houses, likely also contributed to the spike in cases at the school, which has approximately 35,000 students enrolled this fall (in a mix of in-person, online, and hybrid classes).
Since the start of August, the University of South Carolina has reported more than 2,300 student Covid-19 cases. And it is not alone. There were more than 178,000 estimated coronavirus cases on more than 1,400 college campuses across the US as of October 8, according to a New York Times tracker.
Most universities are employing familiar, evidence-based measures to fight the coronavirus: distancing, testing, tracing, and isolating. But the rollout of these policies — and their success in fighting outbreaks — varies widely from school to school.
At some schools, all students must get tested at least once a week if they want to remain on campus. At others, even students with Covid-19 symptoms have difficulty getting tested at all. Some schools are providing single-occupancy rooms for students who should quarantine after being exposed to the virus, while others send students back to their dorms to wait to see if they get sick.
University officials acknowledged to Vox that they cannot prevent every risky party. But whether a party sparks a large outbreak or a small one comes down not just to students’ behavior, but also the school’s Covid-19 systems that are already in place.
The task of controlling infections doesn’t just affect students either. Cases can move through staff and the community at large, especially with many students living off-campus, where rules are difficult to enforce.
“Universities and colleges are not islands unto themselves, and they exist in their communities,” says Crystal Watson a public health risk expert at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security. She says that infections among students are “essentially feeding cases in the community.” Indeed, many towns with the highest rates of Covid-19 as the fall semester got underway were those that house large universities.
So how can universities do their best to support students wanting to do the right thing, and also help nudge others into line? Let’s take a look at how various schools are handling the key pillars of limiting Covid-19 spread, what seems to be working — and what doesn’t.
Sizes of in-person classes vary widely, as does the density of students allowed in on-campus housing
We’ve known since early in the year that keeping people physically distanced is one of the best ways to limit spread of the coronavirus, which is why universities sent nearly all of their students home midway through the spring semester.
Over the past two months, however, millions of students have returned to the majority of campuses across the US — campuses where, for the most part, in-person social gatherings are limited and masks are required.
But the similarities often end there. Although most schools have increased their offerings of online coursework, the number and sizes of in-person classes vary widely, as does the density of students in on-campus housing.
Simply having fewer students on campus naturally reduces the number of contacts students could have. It’s a sort of passive control strategy — and an important one.
“That’s where we’re seeing the biggest outbreaks, where administrations brought all of the students back — or many of the students back,” Watson says.
At the University of Alabama, for example, only about 15 percent of their 38,000 students enrolled in distance learning for the semester. And residence halls are mostly full. “We are about 90 percent capacity for our on-campus beds, a percentage on par with recent years,” Deidre Stalnaker, director of the university’s communications, wrote to Vox in an email.
Between August 1 and October 1, the school listed more than 2,500 Covid-19 cases on their main campus, which has been among the top 10 universities with the most reported cases, according to data collected by the New York Times. (Keep in mind that comparing numbers of positive tests across universities can be problematic because some are testing more widely than others. And a smaller school might have higher rates of the virus but among fewer students overall.)
When on-campus housing is close to normal capacity, students often have roommates, shared bathrooms, and other opportunities to unwittingly spread the virus. Large numbers of students also mean more people frequenting other common areas on campus and off, adding to each student’s potential contacts. So these schools will need more testing, tracing, and isolation and quarantine resources if and when outbreaks start.
Early outbreaks at some schools prompted administrators to abort their on-campus learning plans altogether. At the beginning of the semester, for example, the University of North Carolina Chapel Hill, which usually has about 30,000 students, brought many back to campus and had dorms at about 63 percent capacity, with a mix of single and double rooms, the Washington Post reported. But classes were only in session for nine days before a spike in the test positivity rate to 13.6 percent prompted the school to abruptly end all in-person undergraduate instruction.
Johns Hopkins University, where Watson works, is keeping almost all of its students remote for now. “There are obviously massive tradeoffs here,” she says. But “leaning toward more conservative has been better.”
Other schools have brought back only a fraction of undergraduates, restricting on-campus presence to students who truly need to be there for housing or academic reasons. Watson suggests universities “focus on having the students on campus who really need to be there because classes they need have hands-on activities,” for example, she says.
This is an approach the University of Washington is following, which started its fall quarter on September 30. About 90 percent of their classes are virtual, saving in-person learning for things such as health care training, biological research labs, and the like that aren’t possible to do virtually, notes Geoffrey Gottlieb, an infectious disease specialist at the University of Washington’s School of Public Health who is also chair of the school’s advisory committee on communicable diseases. And the university is keeping its residence halls to about one-third of normal capacity, ensuring students have single rooms and single bathrooms. (Although this has not prevented the spread of the virus off campus, where there have been recent outbreaks at fraternity and sorority houses.)
This on-campus de-densifying is important for reducing opportunities for transmission overall, Watson says. “This virus spreads really readily, so even one mistake can cause an epidemic,” she says. Especially if other measures aren’t in place to detect and stop it.
Some schools have made testing mandatory, while others have left it voluntary
Testing for the coronavirus is essential for tracking its spread and knowing when additional containment measures should be put into place. Undetected cases of Covid-19 on campus mean that there is no way to give these infected students and their contacts instructions about quarantine and isolation, allowing the virus to spread further, especially among those with mild or asymptomatic cases.
But on some university campuses, it hasn’t always been easy for students to get tested.
For example, the University of South Carolina stopped its saliva-based testing program for more than four days (including Labor Day weekend) due to an ill staff member. At the time, the school had already confirmed more than 1,000 Covid-19 cases.
Breaking: @UofSC now has 1,017 active student cases of COVID-19 and 9 employee cases. The total of 1,026 is double last week’s 557 cases. Article to come. — The Daily Gamecock (@thegamecock) September 1, 2020
When testing resumed, instead of the previous 1,200 saliva tests they had been able to process each day, the university could only run about 200 tests (although the school notes that they have also been able to offer nasal swab tests for people with symptoms). That number has slowly climbed back up to 1,000 tests per day in the past month. But getting one of those scarce tests was not always easy for students.
A sophomore there, Kailey Cota, told Vox that in mid-September on-campus testing had only been available in a two-hour window, Monday through Friday. “For me, personally, it’s a problem — a lot of students have class during that time,” says Cota, who is also assistant news editor at the student-run newspaper. (Testing availability has now been expanded to up to 10 hours a day, depending on the day, rotating through different locations.)
Cota has also heard rumors that some students who develop symptoms intentionally choose to get tested for the virus off campus — “that way the numbers for USC don’t go up, and they don’t close campus,” she says.
Testing at the University of South Carolina is also entirely voluntary, as it is on many campuses. Cota says that if a student is contacted by contact tracing and “told to get tested, that’s all on the honor system. They cannot force us to get tested.” (Many schools are hemmed into voluntary testing because of state guidelines, notes Gottlieb.)
A spokesperson for the school notes that it now has more tests available than it can find students to take them. “Next week we are launching new incentives for students to get tested on a randomized basis — [with] free T-shirts [and] the chance to win prizes — in order to combat testing fatigue and help us better understand the spread of the virus,” Jeff Stensland, the University of South Carolina’s director of public relations, wrote to Vox in an email over the weekend. “We have seen that our capacity is outpacing demand for testing, which is part of the reason we’re offering the incentives.”
The University of South Carolina has now reported more than 2,300 student cases — of about 19,700 student tests — between August 1 and October 1 (a more than 10.5 percent test positivity rate over two months). In the last week of September, however, the university was averaging only about 265 daily student tests, about four of which were positive each day.
Based in part on this low number of detected cases, the school marks the current campus status as below a low-risk level: a green “new normal.” (Which is difficult to determine based on how few students had been getting tested on campus.) On September 10, Deborah Birx, the leader of the White House coronavirus task force, visited the university and recommended additional surveillance testing on campus (which is part of the school’s new efforts to expand test availability and entice students to use it), as well as sending a government team to provide additional testing for the city of Columbia.
Experts note that a broad testing approach is crucial. “Schools that have done the best so far have had a layered testing strategy,” Watson says. Specifically, they have tested everyone when they arrived on campus for the semester (or required proof of recent negative test), they test anyone with symptoms or known positive contacts, and they have broad ongoing surveillance testing for people without symptoms.
But testing is not a full Covid-19 strategy in itself, as the White House outbreak also shows. Testing is just a window to look through to observe the virus’s spread — and see if mitigation efforts need to be stepped up, Watson says. Which is what some schools, such as the University of Illinois, have done.
Related Everyone in the White House cluster who has reportedly tested positive for the coronavirus
The University of Illinois created an ambitious campus testing program, requiring every on-campus student to get tested at least twice a week with the school’s rapid saliva test. (The school has conducted more than 466,000 Covid-19 tests since early July.)
However, just several days into the semester, it detected 320 new cases in a single day, bringing its campus-wide test positivity to almost 3 percent (because of universal regular testing, this was close to the true campus infection level). The next week, administrators put the campus on lockdown for two weeks.
The lockdown drastically slowed case spread; the test positivity rate has stayed below 1 percent since early September (and is currently at approximately 0.2 percent). And the university continues to conduct more than 10,000 tests on a typical day to monitor for new outbreaks.
5. "But they had to take more drastic steps, and reduce on-campus activity!"
Indeed they did. And a week ago they started relaxing again, without ill effect yet. Surveillance and rapid response are part of any reasonable plan. That they did this and it worked was a huge success. — Carl T. Bergstrom (@CT_Bergstrom) September 22, 2020
“The University of Illinois has been a model program,” Gottlieb says. Widespread surveillance testing can catch these outbreaks “before they get completely out of hand,” he says, prompting effective scaled-up containment strategies.
The delicate task of contact tracing on campus
Manual contact tracing, the type the US has been using to track potential Covid-19 cases, has been a challenge even among non-college adults, many of whom have been reluctant to give the names of friends or the businesses they have frequented. Translating this approach to college students has been particularly difficult.
Which makes sense. If you’re a college student who has been casual with the school’s Covid-19 rules around in-person gatherings, would you admit it — and name your close friends who have as well? Especially if this means you all might end up isolated in quarantine for two weeks?
#UNC sent a warning to Greek orgs after learning some members were intentionally not reporting positive COVID results, and were refusing to comply with contact tracing. Now there’s added concern from other students and community members because frat parties continue. Story at 5. pic.twitter.com/TuupHObzVq — Sarah Krueger (@WRALSarah) September 14, 2020
Universities have some leverage because they can require students to at least agree on paper to comply with tracing as a condition of their return to campus, Watson points out. (Many schools, including Ohio State University, have included this in their student Covid-19 pledge, for example.)
However, it doesn’t make the calculus of compliance much easier. “There are lots of disincentives [for students] in reporting exposures or cases,” Watson says. “I think schools have to be creative and help students manage their way through this and try not to be punitive because that does not engender trust.”
But many schools are taking the punitive route. The University of Alabama, which had more than 2,000 student Covid-19 cases three weeks into its semester, announced that it was issuing more than 600 Covid-19-related sanctions to students, including 33 suspensions. Many other schools have been meting out disciplinary measures to students who break Covid-19 rules, including, more recently, Iowa State University and the University of Colorado.
“That’s a delicate balance,” Gottlieb says, in “trying to dissuade that behavior, but also we don’t want folks to not report and not get tested. I don’t know if anyone has the perfect answer.” The University of Washington, where he works, has told students that it will not use tracing information to discipline students, in an effort to encourage them to participate.
At the University of Illinois, one of the reasons cases started to spike at the end of August, university experts determined, was that modelers failed to take into account students’ reluctance to comply with contact tracing.
Physics professor and university Covid-19 response modeler Nigel Goldenfeld noted in an online discussion, “What’s not in the model is that students would fail to isolate, that they would not respond to efforts to reach them by [contact tracers], that they would go to a party even if they knew they were Covid-positive,” the Daily Illini student newspaper reported.
Additionally, some Illinois students were not entering correct data into their symptom-tracker app (these are being used widely on campuses but also have mixed incentives for students to fully comply).
Even for those with the best of intentions, it can just be difficult to remember who you have been within 6 feet of for at least 15 minutes, especially on a busy college campus where many people are strangers.
This was true even when most college students were at home. Back in April, “we found that participants could not always precisely recall who they had been within six feet of,” Alison Cohen, an epidemiologist at Stanford University’s School of Medicine, who has conducted nationwide surveys of undergraduate behavior during the Covid-19 pandemic, wrote to Vox in an email. “This will likely be even more difficult as students are more mobile this fall.”
Not all universities have been able to provide comfortable housing promptly for isolating and quarantining students
Isolating people with Covid-19 from others is an essential step for stopping the spread of the virus. Quarantining people who might have the virus — because they had close contact with someone confirmed to have it — is also crucial. But not all universities have been able to quickly provide comfortable housing for isolating students.
Alex Bransteter, a sophomore living on campus at Ohio State University, posted on Twitter about his disappointment in the conditions of his quarantine room at the school, where there had already been more than 2,600 positive student Covid-19 tests in mid-September.
“My A/C has black speckles on it, the room was very dusty, weird stains on the walls, and the window couldn’t open,” he wrote to Vox in an email from his room. (Administrators at the university said that they can move students in quarantine or isolation to new rooms if they alert staff of any issues, and that the windows in that particular high-rise building were designed to not open.)
At the University of South Carolina, some students have been isolated in a dorm that was slated for demolition soon, Bates West. “I’m sure students wanted to avoid going there,” Cota says. “Bates West was one of the grossest dorms on campus.” As one student who was sent there told Vice, “the building was musty and dusty, and the AC didn’t work.” Other students in quarantine or isolation at the school complained of poor wifi that led to disruptions in their virtual classes.
These sorts of unappealing accommodations at some schools (which get shared readily on social media) are not adding any incentives for students to comply with voluntary testing or contact tracing.
“Institutions of higher education should make the isolation experience easy and affordable and an acceptable alternative to how students would otherwise spend their time,” Cohen says. Additionally, she notes, students in isolation or quarantine should be offered benefits such as paid sick leave from work if they don’t already have it.
Schools can also help students prevent further spread of the virus by using the different strategies of isolation and quarantine most effectively. Students who have tested positive for the virus can isolate together, potentially opening up additional on-campus housing space. However, the same is not the case for people told to quarantine. “Students should not be quarantined together if they’ve been exposed,” Watson explains. “Then you run the additional risk of passing the virus along.”
Some universities are offering up individual quarantine options for students who live on campus. For example, the University of Texas, with assistance from the City of Austin, has made free hotel rooms (with wifi and food) available to these students so they can safely quarantine away from others.
But individual quarantine is a big hurdle for many schools. “This makes it really hard for colleges and universities because that requires a lot of single-occupancy rooms,” Watson says, especially schools that have brought back a large portion of their students.
Students could also conceivably be put into single-person quarantine, for two weeks at a stretch, multiple times throughout the semester as they come into contact with different people who test positive, perhaps even adding another disincentive for contact compliance.
“For college students, 14 days is a long time to be without close physical contact with your social group,” Leah Brunner, a graduate student at the Colorado School of Public Health who studies mental health and has been working with undergraduates this semester, wrote to Vox in an email. This sort of isolation also carries additional social stigma on some campuses, she says. “Many students feel shamed.”
For students who live off campus, which is frequently the majority of the student body at large universities, there is also often little schools can do to encourage proper quarantining or isolation practices, other than supply information and recommendations, and possible threats of discipline.
WATCH: While hosting a large house party, Miami University students admit to police they recently tested positive for COVID-19 https://t.co/7LbUJvHSw5 pic.twitter.com/lW3gDqByYj — CBS News (@CBSNews) September 11, 2020
On campus, the New York Times has reported that some schools have deployed nurses, security guards, or police to help students adhere to the rules while they are in isolation or quarantine.
“The key is sharing the responsibility”
Plenty of students see what their institutions could be doing better to help them help their school’s efforts. There are some very basic improvements that Cota sees her school, for example, could make to help decrease the spread of Covid-19 around campus. She lists: expanding the hours for testing, improving the communications from campus health officials, and trying to make quarantine and isolation stays better.
“Students were the one to put the blame on in the opening weeks,” Bransteter, the Ohio State sophomore, said. “But it was the plans put in place that were completely not ready for 30,000+ students to come on campus. ... The university put forward a lackluster plan for the school year and had to adapt simultaneously with us students. Personally, every week contributed to the anxiety of contracting Covid-19.” Ohio State has now reported more than 2,900 cases (but has an overall test positivity rate of less than 3 percent from more than 109,000 student tests since mid-August).
To be sure, everyone has a role to play in managing Covid-19 on university campuses. “The key is sharing the responsibility,” Watson says. “It shouldn’t be all students’ responsibility to follow all these rules and stop outbreaks — these are college kids, and it’s not totally realistic. I think leadership has the responsibility to manage risk, to have fewer students on campus, to manage outbreaks before they occur,” she says.
Despite widespread media coverage of parties, the majority of undergraduates are doing their part to follow their school’s rules — and sometimes even doing more than they are asked.
Cohen and her colleagues found that undergrads have often gone above and beyond local health recommendations, for example having restricted their contact with others even before stay-at-home orders were issued in the spring. And universities should be sure to support the students who choose to be extra cautious, she says. “All colleges should make it possible for students who make more conservative risk calculations than the institution to nevertheless be able to participate actively in coursework and other activities throughout the Covid-19 pandemic,” Cohen says.
But as universities strive to keep Covid-19 from spiraling on their campus, “any ideal Covid-19 containment strategy would likely require a lot of resources,” Cohen says, whether that comes in the form of low-density housing, widespread surveillance testing, robust contact tracing, additional accommodations for quarantining students, or other offerings.
“This [question of campus resources] could become another axis upon which inequalities widen during the Covid-19 pandemic,” she notes.
Katherine Harmon Courage is a freelance science journalist and author of Cultured and Octopus! Find her on Twitter at @KHCourage.


vox--2020-10-10--Where fall colors are hitting their peak, in one map

In the era of anxiety-producing color-coded maps , from Covid-19 case counts to election forecasts , the map below is a sight for sore eyes .
The fall foliage prediction map , created by tourism site SmokyMountains.com , shows when each region across the country will be at its most colorful this year .
The map ’ s algorithm uses temperature and rainfall data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration ( NOAA ) along with data from observations , according to David Angotti , the founder of the site and the map ’ s creator .
The good news—it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the Rockies and the northern tips of Maine and Minnesota are already past peak foliage , according to the map , the rest of the country is entering prime “ leaf-peeping ” season .
You can toggle through the rest of the fall on the interactive map and see when the canopies in your region will be fully flush .
( Also to note : the map ’ s prediction , is just that , a prediction .
Go outside to see how accurate it is for yourself ! )
One of the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ distancing guidelines don ’ t forbid us from observing the natural world .
To help you track the foliage transformation in real time , here ’ s a guide to the inner workings of the leaf .
The shift in leaf color is part of a tree ’ s larger preparation for winter .
In the spring and summer months when the days are long , broad-leafed or deciduous trees use chlorophyll ( the green pigment in leaves ) to photosynthesize , producing sugars .
But that process breaks down as the days @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and darker as autumn arrives , having leaves packed with chlorophyll costs plants a lot of energy for little return , ” Fernando Gomollon-Bel explained in Chemistry World .
“ This is because chemical reactions proceed more slowly when it ’ s cold , and the shorter days and more diffuse light mean little energy is harvested.
” As the last chlorophyll fades away with the arrival of autumn , the warm hues of fall start to pop .
The yellow pigments ( xanthophylls ) and orange pigments ( carotenoids ) were in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ play a role in photosynthesis — but they are revealed once the chlorophyll disappears for the season .
The most eye-catching red and purple pigments ( called anthocyanin ) remain somewhat mysterious .
Craig Smith wrote in the New York Times , “ Its role in autumn leaves is not well understood , but current theories suggest that some trees have evolved to produce it to protect their leaves from the damaging effects of intense sunlight while the chlorophyll breaks down — the red pigment absorbs wavelengths in the green region of the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the disappearing chlorophyll.
” Eventually , the color show comes to an end when trees drop their leaves off , because unlike thin evergreen needles , deciduous broad leaves can not weather the winter .
Different tree species undergo this transformation at different points in the fall , but the map should give you a good indication of days for the best leaf-peeping in your neighborhood .
And , in the midst of a series of climate disasters , rising temperatures have at least given us one good thing : trees are staying @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for all Millions turn to Vox each month to understand what ’ s happening in the news , from the coronavirus crisis to a racial reckoning to what is , quite possibly , the most consequential presidential election of our lifetimes .
Our mission has never been more vital than it is in this moment : to empower you through understanding .
But our distinctive brand of explanatory journalism takes resources .
Even when the economy and the news advertising market recovers , your support will be a critical part of sustaining our @ @ @ @ @ @ @ contributed , thank you .
If you haven ’ t , please consider helping everyone make sense of an increasingly chaotic world : Contribute today from as little as $ 3 .

In the era of anxiety-producing color-coded maps, from Covid-19 case counts to election forecasts, the map below is a sight for sore eyes.
The fall foliage prediction map, created by tourism site SmokyMountains.com, shows when each region across the country will be at its most colorful this year. The map’s algorithm uses temperature and rainfall data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) along with data from observations, according to David Angotti, the founder of the site and the map’s creator.
The good news—it’s not too late. While the Rockies and the northern tips of Maine and Minnesota are already past peak foliage, according to the map, the rest of the country is entering prime “leaf-peeping” season. You can toggle through the rest of the fall on the interactive map and see when the canopies in your region will be fully flush. (Also to note: the map’s prediction, is just that, a prediction. Go outside to see how accurate it is for yourself!)
From green to gold: leaf color change explained
One of the upsides of the pandemic is that social distancing guidelines don’t forbid us from observing the natural world. To help you track the foliage transformation in real time, here’s a guide to the inner workings of the leaf.
The shift in leaf color is part of a tree’s larger preparation for winter. In the spring and summer months when the days are long, broad-leafed or deciduous trees use chlorophyll (the green pigment in leaves) to photosynthesize, producing sugars. But that process breaks down as the days shorten.
“As it gets colder and darker as autumn arrives, having leaves packed with chlorophyll costs plants a lot of energy for little return,” Fernando Gomollon-Bel explained in Chemistry World. “This is because chemical reactions proceed more slowly when it’s cold, and the shorter days and more diffuse light mean little energy is harvested.”
As the last chlorophyll fades away with the arrival of autumn, the warm hues of fall start to pop. The yellow pigments (xanthophylls) and orange pigments (carotenoids) were in the leaf all along — they also play a role in photosynthesis — but they are revealed once the chlorophyll disappears for the season.
The most eye-catching red and purple pigments (called anthocyanin) remain somewhat mysterious. Craig Smith wrote in the New York Times, “Its role in autumn leaves is not well understood, but current theories suggest that some trees have evolved to produce it to protect their leaves from the damaging effects of intense sunlight while the chlorophyll breaks down — the red pigment absorbs wavelengths in the green region of the spectrum that would otherwise be reflected by the disappearing chlorophyll.”
Eventually, the color show comes to an end when trees drop their leaves off, because unlike thin evergreen needles, deciduous broad leaves cannot weather the winter.
Different tree species undergo this transformation at different points in the fall, but the map should give you a good indication of days for the best leaf-peeping in your neighborhood. And, in the midst of a series of climate disasters, rising temperatures have at least given us one good thing: trees are staying colorful longer.


vox--2020-10-11--America’s newest wave of Covid-19 cases, explained

Evidence-based explanations of the coronavirus crisis , from how it started to how it might end to how to protect yourself and others .
A new wave of Covid-19 cases is building across the United States , a harbinger of difficult winter months ahead .
America is now averaging nearly 48,000 new confirmed cases every day , the highest numbers since mid-August , according to the Covid Tracking Project .
More than 34,500 Americans are currently hospitalized with Covid-19 in the US , up from less than 30,000 a week ago .
Nearly 700 new deaths are being reported on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ while that is down from August , when there were often more than 1,000 deaths a day , deaths are going to eventually start increasing if cases and hospitalizations continue to rise .
It ’ s a pattern we have seen before .
Public health experts have been warning for months that fall and winter could lead to a spike in Covid-19 cases .
Why ?
Because the best way to slow down the coronavirus ’ s spread is to keep your distance from other people and , if you are going to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ as much as possible — and both become harder when the weather gets cold .
We may now be seeing those predictions start to come true .
The US already has more than 7.7 million confirmed cases and 214,000 deaths .
Both numbers will continue to climb .
Eight months into the pandemic , America ’ s failures to contain Covid-19 , and states ’ eagerness to reopen even if they haven ’ t gotten their outbreaks under control , is once again leading to a surge in cases and hospitalizations .
Covid-19 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Earlier in the year , there was limited value to discussing “ waves ” because some states would have a decline in cases while other states were experiencing surges .
What distinguishes this autumn wave is that it seems to be happening everywhere .
Case numbers are up in the Northeast , the Midwest , and the West .
The South appears to be , at best , plateauing at a level even higher than that which the Northeast endured during the worst of New York ’ s outbreak .
What ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ or region can be blamed for this new wave .
Just 13 states have seen their number of new Covid-19 cases drop over the last two weeks , according to Covid Exit Strategy .
Cases are up in all the others .
Raw case numbers can , of course , obscure important differences in population ; 100 new cases means something different for California than it does for Wyoming .
Experts will use another metric — new cases per million people — to gauge how saturated a given state is with Covid-19 .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ than 40 new cases per million people .
But just three states — Maine , Vermont , and New Hampshire — meet that threshold .
Meanwhile , North Dakota ( 627 cases per million ) , South Dakota ( 596 ) , Montana ( 474 ) , and Wisconsin ( 434 ) are some of the states seeing very high levels of new infections .
As Vox ’ s German Lopez reported this week , just one state — Maine — meets all of the benchmarks established by experts for a state to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ yet , most states have reopened many of the businesses that were closed in the spring : 40 or so states have reopened restaurants , bars , gyms , movie theaters , and nonessential retail .
“ Part of the problem is America never really suppressed its Covid-19 cases to begin with , ” Lopez wrote , explaining why experts were anticipating a new surge in cases .
“ Think of a disease epidemic like a forest fire : It ’ s going to be really difficult to contain the virus when there @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the forest and small embers practically everywhere .
The country always risks a full blaze with each step toward reopening and with each failure to take precautions seriously.
” Too many Covid-19 tests are coming back positive right now Another closely watched indicator for renewed Covid-19 spread is the percentage of coronavirus tests that come back positive .
The number of tests being conducted doesn ’ t actually tell you all that much ; if a high percentage of them are positive , that suggests that many others aren ’ t being caught @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to spread unchecked .
So while the US is now averaging nearly 1 million tests every day , that is not quite the triumph it might sound like ( or President Donald Trump would like to believe it is ) .
The country ’ s positive test rate is 5 percent , right at the threshold experts say would reflect adequate testing .
Ideally , it would be even lower , 2 percent or less .
But even with that passable national positivity rate , most states are still not conducting nearly enough @ @ @ @ @ @ @ with the highest positive test rates , according to Covid Exit Strategy : It ’ s really only a handful of better-performing states — namely , New York , with more than 115,000 tests conducted per day and a 1.2 percent positivity rate — that ’ s keeping the US ’ s overall positive test rate from looking a lot worse .
America has never had a cohesive Covid-19 testing strategy .
Since February , there have been regular supply shortages delaying test results .
States have been fighting each other for precious @ @ @ @ @ @ @ been a priority for the federal government , and most states have still not hired nearly enough people to perform that work .
Wealthy countries like Germany and South Korea have used effective test-trace-isolate programs to keep their Covid-19 outbreaks in check .
The US , meanwhile , is still struggling to perform enough tests or scale up its contact tracing capabilities .
Just 11 states , plus the District of Columbia , could realistically expect to perform adequate contact tracing , according to Covid Exit Strategy , considering their positivity rate .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ , it will continue to be difficult for the US to contain the coronavirus before a vaccine becomes available .
More Americans are being hospitalized with Covid-19 too Both case numbers and the positive test rate can be a little deceptive , depending on how many tests are being performed .
They suggest what ’ s happening on the ground — in this case , Covid-19 is spreading — but they do have their limitations .
There is some truth to the president ’ s claim that more tests will mean more cases @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to stop testing .
Hospitalizations , on the other hand , are more concrete .
If more people are developing symptoms severe enough to warrant being hospitalized , that is a strong indicator that the real number of people being infected with Covid-19 is growing , regardless of whether they are getting tested .
And after a dip in September , the number of Americans currently in the hospital with Covid-19 is higher than it ’ s been in a month .
That trend has been seen across the country .
The worry @ @ @ @ @ @ @ many patients , they ’ ll have to turn other people away , or that overwhelmed staff and facilities could lead to some patients receiving substandard care .
According to Covid Exit Strategy , 20 states currently have reduced ICU capacity that puts them in a danger zone ; 21 states have an elevated occupancy rate in their regular hospital beds .
Wisconsin , where the number of hospitalized Covid-19 patients has risen over the last month from about 300 to 876 today , recently established a new field hospital on its state @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s hospitals wouldn ’ t have enough beds given the recent surge in cases .
Fortunately , hospitals have gotten much better at treating Covid-19 .
They have proven treatments , like remdesivir and dexamethasone , that reduce the length of hospital stays and reduce mortality in patients with severe symptoms .
They have learned techniques like putting patients on their stomach to improve breathing .
Hospitals that have endured multiple spikes of Covid-19 cases report patients in the later waves are spending less time in the hospital and dying less frequently @ @ @ @ @ @ @ symptoms , as we are starting to see , will inevitably lead to more deaths .
Over the summer , people wondered why deaths were falling while cases and hospitalizations rose — until deaths did start to increase .
There is a long lag between cases rising and deaths rising , because it can take a month or more between when a person first contracts Covid-19 and , if they die , when their death is reported .
That ’ s why these new Covid-19 trends in the US are so worrisome .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
It could be only a matter of time before deaths start to spike as well .
Help keep Vox free for all Millions turn to Vox each month to understand what ’ s happening in the news , from the coronavirus crisis to a racial reckoning to what is , quite possibly , the most consequential presidential election of our lifetimes .
Our mission has never been more vital than it is in this moment : to empower you through understanding .
But our distinctive brand of explanatory journalism takes resources .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ advertising market recovers , your support will be a critical part of sustaining our resource-intensive work .
If you have already contributed , thank you .
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A new wave of Covid-19 cases is rising across the United States, a harbinger of difficult winter months ahead.
America is now averaging about 54,000 new confirmed cases every day, the highest numbers since early August, according to the New York Times. More than 37,000 Americans are currently hospitalized with Covid-19 in the US, up from about 30,000 a week ago. Roughy 700 new deaths are being reported on average every day, too — and while that is down from August, when there were often more than 1,000 deaths a day, deaths are going to start increasing if cases and hospitalizations continue to rise. It’s a pattern we have seen before.
Public health experts have been warning for months that fall and winter could lead to a spike in Covid-19 cases. Why? Because the best way to slow down the coronavirus’s spread is to keep your distance from other people and, if you are going to be around others, to be outside as much as possible — and both become harder when the weather gets cold.
We may now be seeing those predictions start to come true, even as much of the country still has warm weather. The US already has nearly 8 million confirmed cases and 217,000 confirmed deaths. Both numbers will continue to climb.
Eight months into the pandemic, America’s failures to contain Covid-19, and states’ eagerness to reopen even if they haven’t gotten their outbreaks under control, is once again leading to a surge in cases and hospitalizations.
Covid-19 cases are rising everywhere across the country
Earlier in the year, there was limited value to discussing “waves” because some states would have a decline in cases while other states were experiencing surges. What distinguishes this autumn wave is that it seems to be happening everywhere.
Case numbers are up across every region: the Northeast, the South, the Midwest, and the West.
What’s so worrisome is that no one state or region can be blamed for this new wave. Just two states have seen their number of new Covid-19 cases drop over the last two weeks, as of October 15, according to Covid Exit Strategy. Cases are up in all the others.
Raw case numbers can, of course, obscure important differences in population; 100 new cases means something different for California than it does for Wyoming. Experts will use another metric — new cases per million people — to gauge how saturated a given state is with Covid-19.
The goal would be to have fewer than 40 new cases per million people. But just two states — Maine and Vermont — meet that threshold. Meanwhile, North Dakota (800 cases per million), South Dakota (743), Montana (569), and Wisconsin (531) are some of the states seeing very high levels of new infections.
As Vox’s German Lopez reported this week, just one state — Maine — meets all of the benchmarks indicated by experts for a state to consider its Covid-19 outbreak contained. And yet, most states have reopened many of the businesses that were closed in the spring: 40 or so states have reopened restaurants, bars, gyms, movie theaters, and nonessential retail.
“Part of the problem is America never really suppressed its Covid-19 cases to begin with,” Lopez wrote, explaining why experts were anticipating a new surge in cases. “Think of a disease epidemic like a forest fire: It’s going to be really difficult to contain the virus when there are still flames raging in parts of the forest and small embers practically everywhere. The country always risks a full blaze with each step toward reopening and with each failure to take precautions seriously.”
Too many Covid-19 tests are coming back positive right now
Another closely watched indicator for renewed Covid-19 spread is the percentage of coronavirus tests that come back positive. The number of tests being conducted doesn’t actually tell you all that much; if a high percentage of them are positive, that suggests that many others aren’t being caught at all and the virus could continue to spread unchecked.
So while the US is now averaging about 1 million tests every day, that is not quite the triumph it might sound like (or that President Donald Trump would like to believe it is). The country’s positive test rate is around 5 percent, right at the threshold experts say would reflect adequate testing. Ideally, it would be even lower, 2 percent or less.
But even with that passable national positivity rate, most states are still not conducting nearly enough testing. Here are the 10 states with the highest positive test rates, according to Covid Exit Strategy. (Mississippi’s test positivity rate appears to be very high, but large recent swings in reported tests currently make the rate hard to determine.)
South Dakota (35.5 percent) Wisconsin (22.9 percent) Idaho (22.3 percent) Iowa (20.2 percent) Nevada (17.3 percent) Kansas (17.1 percent) Indiana (16.5 percent) Utah (15.2 percent) Nebraska (15.1 percent) Alabama (14.6 percent)
It’s really only a handful of better-performing states — namely, New York, with more than 115,000 tests conducted per day and a 1.1 percent positivity rate — that’s keeping the US’s overall positive test rate from looking a lot worse.
America has never had a cohesive Covid-19 testing strategy. Since February, there have been regular supply shortages delaying test results. States have been fighting each other for precious testing resources. Contact tracing has not been a priority for the federal government, and most states have still not hired nearly enough people to perform that work.
Wealthy countries like Germany and South Korea have used effective test-trace-isolate programs to keep their Covid-19 outbreaks in check. The US, meanwhile, is still struggling to perform enough tests or scale up its contact tracing capabilities. Just a handful of states, plus the District of Columbia, could realistically expect to perform adequate contact tracing, according to Covid Exit Strategy, considering their positivity rate.
Without improvement in both of those areas, it will continue to be difficult for the US to contain the coronavirus before a vaccine becomes available.
More Americans are being hospitalized with Covid-19, too
Both case numbers and the positive test rate can be a little deceptive, depending on how many tests are being performed. They suggest what’s happening on the ground — in this case, Covid-19 is spreading — but they do have their limitations. There is some truth to the president’s claim that more tests will mean more cases, though that is not a reason to stop testing.
Hospitalizations, on the other hand, are more concrete. If more people are developing symptoms severe enough to warrant being hospitalized, that is a strong indicator that the real number of people being infected with Covid-19 is growing, regardless of whether they are getting tested.
And after a dip in September, the number of Americans currently in the hospital with Covid-19 is higher than it’s been in a month. That trend has been seen across the country.
The worry becomes that if hospitals take in too many patients, they’ll have to turn other people away, or that overwhelmed staff and facilities could lead to some patients receiving substandard care. According to Covid Exit Strategy, about 20 states currently have elevated ICU occupancy that puts them in a risk zone; and about 20 have an elevated occupancy rate of their regular hospital beds.
Wisconsin, where the number of hospitalized Covid-19 patients has risen over the last month from about 300 to more than 1,000 today, recently established a new field hospital on its state park fairgrounds over fears that the state’s hospitals wouldn’t have enough beds given the recent surge in cases.
Fortunately, hospitals have gotten much better at treating Covid-19. They have treatments with some supporting evidence, like remdesivir and dexamethasone, of reducing the length of hospital stays or mortality in patients with severe symptoms. They have learned techniques like putting patients on their stomach to improve breathing. Hospitals that have endured spikes of Covid-19 cases report patients in the later waves are spending less time in the hospital and dying less frequently.
Nevertheless, more people developing severe symptoms, as we are starting to see, will inevitably lead to more deaths. Over the summer, people wondered why deaths were falling while cases and hospitalizations rose — until deaths did start to increase. There is a long lag between cases rising and deaths rising, because it can take a month or more between when a person first contracts Covid-19 and, if they die, when their death is reported.
That’s why these new Covid-19 trends in the US are so worrisome. Cases are rising, as are hospitalizations. It could be only a matter of time before deaths start to spike as well.


vox--2020-10-11--Stimulus talks are at an impasse as Senate Republicans object to White House package

House Democrats and White House officials are telling conflicting stories over the status of the long-stalled Covid-19 relief bill negotiations Sunday morning , and a deal before Election Day is looking less likely as time wears on .
On CNN ’ s State of the Union Sunday morning , White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow told host Jake Tapper that he didn ’ t think a deal between the Trump administration and House Democrats was dead , despite opposition from many Senate Republicans .
“ No , I don ’ t think it ’ s dead at all , ” @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a deal can be reached , [ Senate Republicans ] will go along with it.
” Kudlow tried to spin the impasse as an issue with Democrats , when in fact it has been the president ’ s own party presenting the biggest opposition to a deal .
At issue are dueling proposals between House Democrats and White House negotiators .
House Democrats passed a revised version of their HEROES Act earlier this month , which now features $ 2.2 trillion ( down from some $ 3 trillion in the version passed in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ expanded unemployment insurance and another round of stimulus checks .
But the White House has rejected that package and countered with its own $ 1.8 trillion proposal .
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said talks “ remain at an impasse ” in a letter sent out to House Democrats Sunday morning .
“ This proposal amounted to one step forward , two steps back , ” she wrote in the letter , referring to the negotiations .
“ When the President talks about wanting a bigger relief package , his proposal appears to mean @ @ @ @ @ @ @ discretion to grant or withhold , rather than agreeing on language prescribing how we honor our workers , crush the virus and put money in the pockets of workers.
” Last week , negotiations had stalled over five key areas of disagreement , as Vox ’ s Li Zhou explained , which included state aid and language regarding coronavirus testing and contact tracing .
The stakes of passing another stimulus are high .
Earlier this week , Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell warned another coronavirus wave could hit the economy hard , and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ stimulus aid for struggling Americans .
Yet the same day he made that statement , Trump tweeted that he was cutting off negotiations with House Democrats , saying he would only reengage if he wins the election .
After a stock market plunge in response to his tweets , and perhaps influenced by his plummeting poll numbers , Trump swiftly reversed himself .
But for a deal to happen , Trump needs to get his party ’ s buy-in .
Over 20 Senate Republicans have now publicly said they oppose or are reticent @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , despite a still-cratering economy , even if the White House agrees to a deal .
It ’ s perhaps the most firm break the chamber ’ s GOP members have made from Trump in recent memory .
A new wave of infections could spell doom for the economy The failure to pass a new stimulus bill is taking place against the backdrop of a struggling economy and worsening pandemic .
Johns Hopkins announced Sunday morning the fourth straight day with over 50,000 new cases of Covid-19 in the US , matching some @ @ @ @ @ @ @ since early August .
It ’ s an alarming figure for a fragile economy in a volatile election cycle .
Though the unemployment rate has improved from a high of 14.7 percent in April to 7.9 percent in September , according to US Labor Bureau statistics , the number of Americans applying for jobless benefits remains distressingly high .
If the pandemic forces states to go back into lockdown or issue new business closures , the numbers could only get worse .
That could spell disaster for the slowly recovering economy , especially @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Republicans refuse to play ball .
Help keep Vox free for all Millions turn to Vox each month to understand what ’ s happening in the news , from the coronavirus crisis to a racial reckoning to what is , quite possibly , the most consequential presidential election of our lifetimes .
Our mission has never been more vital than it is in this moment : to empower you through understanding .
But our distinctive brand of explanatory journalism takes resources .
Even when the economy and the news advertising market recovers , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of sustaining our resource-intensive work .
If you have already contributed , thank you .
If you haven ’ t , please consider helping everyone make sense of an increasingly chaotic world : Contribute today from as little as $ 3 .

House Democrats and White House officials are telling conflicting stories over the status of the long-stalled Covid-19 relief bill negotiations Sunday morning, and a deal before Election Day is looking less likely as time wears on.
On CNN’s State of the Union Sunday morning, White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow told host Jake Tapper that he didn’t think a deal between the Trump administration and House Democrats was dead, despite opposition from many Senate Republicans.
“No, I don’t think it’s dead at all,” said Kudlow. “I think if a deal can be reached, [Senate Republicans] will go along with it.” Kudlow tried to spin the impasse as an issue with Democrats, when in fact it has been the president’s own party presenting the biggest opposition to a deal.
White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow says he doesn’t think the stimulus deal is dead, despite President Trump’s $1.8 trillion proposal facing opposition from Senate GOP. “I think if an agreement can be reached, they will go along with it” https://t.co/Viunv4eaxp #CNNSOTU pic.twitter.com/RNV1O8GzSr — State of the Union (@CNNSotu) October 11, 2020
At issue are dueling proposals between House Democrats and White House negotiators. House Democrats passed a revised version of their HEROES Act earlier this month, which now features $2.2 trillion (down from some $3 trillion in the version passed in May) to cover an extension of expanded unemployment insurance and another round of stimulus checks. But the White House has rejected that package and countered with its own $1.8 trillion proposal.
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said talks “remain at an impasse” in a letter sent out to House Democrats Sunday morning.
“This proposal amounted to one step forward, two steps back,” she wrote in the letter, referring to the negotiations. “When the President talks about wanting a bigger relief package, his proposal appears to mean that he wants more money at his discretion to grant or withhold, rather than agreeing on language prescribing how we honor our workers, crush the virus and put money in the pockets of workers.”
Last week, negotiations had stalled over five key areas of disagreement, as Vox’s Li Zhou explained, which included state aid and language regarding coronavirus testing and contact tracing.
The stakes of passing another stimulus are high. Earlier this week, Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell warned another coronavirus wave could hit the economy hard, and called for the government to enact more stimulus aid for struggling Americans.
Yet the same day he made that statement, Trump tweeted that he was cutting off negotiations with House Democrats, saying he would only reengage if he wins the election. After a stock market plunge in response to his tweets, and perhaps influenced by his plummeting poll numbers, Trump swiftly reversed himself.
...request, and looking to the future of our Country. I have instructed my representatives to stop negotiating until after the election when, immediately after I win, we will pass a major Stimulus Bill that focuses on hardworking Americans and Small Business. I have asked... — Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) October 6, 2020
If I am sent a Stand Alone Bill for Stimulus Checks ($1,200), they will go out to our great people IMMEDIATELY. I am ready to sign right now. Are you listening Nancy? @MarkMeadows @senatemajldr @kevinomccarthy @SpeakerPelosi @SenSchumer — Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) October 7, 2020
But for a deal to happen, Trump needs to get his party’s buy-in. Over 20 Senate Republicans have now publicly said they oppose or are reticent to pass a second round of relief, despite a still-cratering economy, even if the White House agrees to a deal.
It’s perhaps the most firm break the chamber’s GOP members have made from Trump in recent memory.
A new wave of infections could spell doom for the economy
The failure to pass a new stimulus bill is taking place against the backdrop of a struggling economy and worsening pandemic.
Johns Hopkins announced Sunday morning the fourth straight day with over 50,000 new cases of Covid-19 in the US, matching some of the pandemic’s worst numbers since early August. It’s an alarming figure for a fragile economy in a volatile election cycle.
Though the unemployment rate has improved from a high of 14.7 percent in April to 7.9 percent in September, according to US Labor Bureau statistics, the number of Americans applying for jobless benefits remains distressingly high. If the pandemic forces states to go back into lockdown or issue new business closures, the numbers could only get worse.
That could spell disaster for the slowly recovering economy, especially if no deal is reached and Senate Republicans refuse to play ball.