vox--2020-06-22--How superspreading is fueling the pandemic — and how we can stop it

How superspreading is fueling the pandemic — and how we can stop it Share All sharing options for : How superspreading is fueling the pandemic — and how we can stop it We now know that , on average , people with the coronavirus infect about two other people ; in fact , most actually pass the virus to just one other person , or to no one else at all .
But some people go on to infect many more , often before they even get symptoms .
Many of these transmission chains begin with “ superspreading ” events @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a crowded indoor space ) passes the virus to dozens of others .
Early contact tracing studies suggest these events have been a large driver of transmission around the world .
By some estimates , 10 percent of people have been causing 80 percent of new infections .
This is one of the reasons experts are worried about large indoor events — more so than outdoor ones — causing large spikes in case numbers .
Some of the largest superspreading events have happened aboard ships , including Navy carriers and cruise ships .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ ground in smaller settings , including at a church in Arkansas .
In early March , a 57-year-old pastor and his wife , who both felt fine , attended a series of church events over three days , and the pastor returned for an additional Bible study group a few days later .
Soon after , they each started developing symptoms and eventually tested positive for the coronavirus .
But it had already spread .
At least 33 of the other 92 event attendees later tested positive for Covid-19 , and three of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ more than two dozen other illnesses — and another death — in the community .
A recent preliminary Centers for Disease Control and Prevention report analyzed all of the 3,184 confirmed Covid-19 cases in Japan through the beginning of April .
The researchers found that 61 percent of cases could be definitively traced to clusters of spread outside the household , such as at restaurants , bars , event venues , and workplaces .
And this is likely an undercount due to limitations in contact tracing .
What causes these superspreading clusters , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ driver of this pandemic ?
Is it something about the people themselves who start them ?
Or is it more about the settings where these events take place ?
Or a combination ?
Thankfully , we are learning more about superspreading events , and this insight can help dramatically slow the spread of the coronavirus and save lives — all while potentially allowing more people to return to less risky activities .
That is , if policymakers implement the guidance , and people follow it .
“ If you could reduce superspreading , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the pandemic , ” Elizabeth McGraw , director of the Center for Infectious Disease Dynamics at Pennsylvania State University , told Vox in an email .
Let ’ s walk through it .
Why is the coronavirus so good at superspreading ?
To understand what might kick off a superspreading event , let ’ s review some basics about how this virus , SARS-CoV-2 , spreads .
Researchers have found that it often spreads through microscopic droplets created when an infected person coughs or sneezes — or even speaks — and another person @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are a large part of the reasoning behind staying at least 6 feet away from people and wearing a mask in public .
But scientists are finding that the virus likely also spreads through even tinier , longer-lasting aerosols particles from breathing or speaking ( or flushing a toilet ) .
These are so small they can linger in the air after an infectious person has left — and may contain infectious virus particles for up to three hours .
And they may be a key element to superspreading events : An infected @ @ @ @ @ @ @ space with virus without even getting physically close to all the people they end up infecting .
Superspreading also appears to be more likely with SARS-CoV-2 because people typically have the highest level of the virus in their system ( making them infectious ) right before they develop symptoms .
( This is very different from other severe coronaviruses like SARS and MERS , where people were most infectious seven to 10 days after they started feeling sick , when they were more likely to be in isolation or in medical care .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ Covid-19 infections continue to go about their lives not knowing that they could be spreading the disease .
This has meant that , as some researchers noted in a preprint , “ most transmissions are front-loaded ” toward the beginning of the illness .
As another team of researchers who analyzed cases and contacts in Taiwan noted in JAMA , people actually had a much lower risk of spreading the virus after five days of symptoms .
This might be in part because sick people are less likely to go out , whether @ @ @ @ @ @ @ spread their illness or because they simply don ’ t feel up to it .
But it also has to do with a person ’ s “ viral load ” — an amount that actually tends to go down as symptoms wear on .
A May study of samples collected from patients , published in Clinical Infectious Disease , suggests that people who had symptoms for more than eight days might not actually be very infectious .
“ I think the virus ’ s biggest weapon has been that it can be spread @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of this makes it so much more likely for people to be spreading the virus — sometimes to very large groups of people — unwittingly .
“ I think the virus ’ s biggest weapon has been that it can be spread by asymptomatic or presymptomatic people , ” McGraw says .
“ This , in combination with insufficient testing of people in the community , has meant that it can move from one host to the next while we are unaware.
” This coronavirus ’ s uneven spread is calculated by its @ @ @ @ @ @ @ as “ k ” ) : what proportion of cases cause the bulk of transmissions .
An even dispersion rate would mean most people cause the same number of secondary infections .
We still don ’ t have an entirely firm k factor for Covid-19 , and a lot of the research is still in the prepublication phase and has not been peer-reviewed .
But preliminary estimates , such as one co-authored by Adam Kucharski , an infectious disease dynamics expert at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine , suggest that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ about 80 percent of the virus ’ s spread .
Another early , non-peer-reviewed study from Israel put the local k factor at between 1 and 10 percent of infected people causing 80 percent of new infections .
And a preliminary analysis of superspreading events in Hong Kong put their estimates at around 20 percent of infections causing 80 percent of local transmission .
All of this shows how important superspreading events have been in the virus ’ s spread .
But it doesn ’ t fully explain why they are happening — @ @ @ @ @ @ @ certain people more likely to be superspreaders ?
Scientists are learning that a person ’ s likelihood of kicking off a superspreading event probably depends a little bit on biology and a lot on behavior .
Some individuals seem to develop higher amounts of the virus in their system , upping their odds of transmitting it to others .
And given that the amount of virus in the body tends to shift over the duration of infection — rising until around the onset of symptoms , then declining — the chance that someone @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Finding out whether some people are predisposed to be superspreaders will take more time and research , McGraw says .
But what we have been learning is how individuals ’ behavior could increase the chance they spread the virus to many others — or not .
“ We do know that wearing masks , keeping up physical distancing , avoiding crowds , and isolating upon becoming sick or testing positive can prevent superspreading , ” she says .
The new CDC report out of Japan found 22 people who likely started clusters @ @ @ @ @ @ @ were 20 to 39 years old . )
And for 16 people , the research team could figure out when transmission occurred , which is important because it showed that 41 percent of them didn ’ t have any symptoms when they spread the virus .
In fact , of the superspreaders , only one had a cough when they infected others .
This points to an important nuance in thinking about how some individuals might be sickening a disproportionate number of others .
“ We should not think about superspreaders as villains @ @ @ @ @ @ @ one of us could unknowingly be a superspreader ” — especially given what we know about how much it spreads when people are feeling just fine .
But that means we can probably also avoid becoming a superspreader .
How ?
By doing things we already know can limit the spread of the virus : “ Wear a mask .
Wash your hands .
Keep your distance , and respect the physical space of others , ” McGraw says .
As the pandemic has worn on and become increasingly politicized , many people @ @ @ @ @ @ @ precautions , leading to mask rebellions , large gatherings — and much greater chances of new superspreading events .
The indoor Trump campaign rally June 20 in Tulsa , Oklahoma , for example , concerned many public health officials because organizers did not institute plans for physical distancing or require people to wear masks .
As the top public health official there said in a press conference beforehand , “ I know so many people are over Covid , but Covid is not over.
” ( And indeed , according to Covid Exit @ @ @ @ @ @ @ cases were up 125 percent in the two weeks before the event . )
“ I see an increasing number of people not wearing masks in public as restrictions ease , ” McGraw says .
“ I find it disappointing .
I worry that our focus on personal freedoms in the US , rather than being more community-minded , is going to prolong the outbreak and lead to more deaths than necessary.
” Why superspreading is more common at concerts than in libraries Although we know that individuals ’ behavior plays a role @ @ @ @ @ @ @ more important for these events is where they happen .
Researchers have been tracking many superspreading events around the globe , and there seem to be recurring locations no matter what the country .
In addition to those we have heard most about , like prisons , food processing plants , and elder care facilities , there have also been numerous large superspreading events at bars , churches , offices , gyms , and shopping centers .
These are also places , though , that are now reopening around the country and likely @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in many states .
As Kucharski notes , “ Identifying and reducing risky events and environments could make a substantial dent in transmission.
” Not reducing these events has the opposite effect on the number of cases .
For example , as South Korea started to reopen in early May , one infected person who attended five nightclubs caused at least 50 new infections .
And a preliminary study of infection clusters in Hong Kong found that the largest one documented so far , which resulted in 106 Covid-19 cases , was linked @ @ @ @ @ @ @ at a series of bars .
Seventy-three of the people in this cluster caught the virus at the bars ( including 39 who were customers ) , who then spread it to others in the community .
A team of researchers at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine has been collecting data on these superspreading events in a public database .
The largest ones — including two that resulted in more than 1,000 cases each — happened aboard ships .
Hundreds of cases also have originated from single individuals in close @ @ @ @ @ @ @ food processing plants , prisons , and elder care facilities .
But next on the list are an outbreak tied to a single person at an indoor-outdoor shopping market in Peru who likely infected 163 other people ; an indoor-outdoor religious service in India where one person likely sickened 130 others ; and an indoor-outdoor wedding in New Zealand where a single case sparked 98 more .
Only one of the 22 cluster location types the team analyzed in a preliminary study was an outdoor setting ( building sites in Singapore ; four @ @ @ @ @ @ @ causing a total of 95 infections acquired directly from the sites ) .
These findings line up with other preliminary research that calculated closed environments to be almost 20 times more likely to spur additional coronavirus infections than open-air ones .
There has been concern that the massive protests across the US , which started in late May after the killing of George Floyd , would become superspreading events .
So far the data suggests that hasn ’ t been the case , with no large surge in cases in cities that had @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ( although public health officials will continue to track the numbers ) .
This lines up with what we know about the science .
“ Outdoor events like the protests are inherently less risky than indoor events , given greater airflow , ” McGraw says .
“ It is also easier to spread out and maintain physical distancing.
” And photographs of the protests have shown that a large number of people have been wearing masks .
Still , no massive gathering is guaranteed to stay Covid-19-free .
“ There will still be @ @ @ @ @ @ @ number of people present , ” she says .
It also appears that not all indoor venues and events are equally risky when it comes to starting a large cluster of new cases .
As we ’ ve learned from studying events , like the infamous March church choir practice in Skagit County , Washington , during which one person infected an estimated 52 of 61 people ( two of whom died ) , loud talking and singing “ can spread more virus than talking at a normal volume , ” McGraw says @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of Japan found that “ many Covid-19 clusters were associated with heavy breathing in close proximity , such as singing at karaoke parties , cheering at clubs , having conversations in bars , and exercising in gymnasiums.
” Even looking more closely at cases from these locations can give us clues about what makes superspreading more likely .
A CDC report from South Korea detailed 112 new Covid-19 infections that came from aerobic dance classes ( like Zumba ) in one city .
Interestingly , an instructor who infected dance class participants also @ @ @ @ @ @ @ none of those participants got ill. “ We hypothesize that the lower intensity of pilates and yoga did not cause the same transmission effects as those more intense fitness dance classes , ” the authors noted .
“ The moist , warm atmosphere in a sports facility coupled with turbulent air flow generated by intense physical exercise can cause more dense transmission of isolated droplets , ” thereby making the virus more likely to spread .
These hubs of contagion also are helping us learn what activities might be safer , like seeing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ distance , outdoors .
“ There ’ s increasing evidence that certain environments , like socially distanced picnics with a few other people , are far less risky than crowded , close-knit interactions , like large gatherings indoors , ” says Kucharski , who is also the author of a forthcoming book called The Rules of Contagion .
What should we be doing to limit superspreading ?
Superspreading can be both a curse and a potential blessing in a disease outbreak .
It means that having everyone on full lockdown is not necessarily @ @ @ @ @ @ @ when it is not already circulating widely in a community — if ( and that ’ s an important “ if ” ) we can determine the highest risks for superspreading and prevent them .
That ’ s the blessing .
The curse , Kucharski says , is “ if risky situations are missed or undetected , it means transmission could persist.
” Not only that , but there is also the danger that , as the authors of the one early report note , “ If a superspreader is infected , the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ This seems entirely possible , especially given that people surrounding an original superspreader were probably already engaging in behavior ( like attending a crowded public location ) that would make them more likely to be a superspreader , too .
Superspreading events also can strain other systems in place , like contact tracing , to contain the virus , increasing the odds that further infections will continue to spiral in the community .
Just as a sudden spike in cases can surpass the capacity of health care systems , a big jump can @ @ @ @ @ @ @ notify contacts of the infected to isolate and get tested .
But now that we have data from recent superspreading events , we could theoretically prevent future ones .
The good news is that the science suggests we can .
But it depends on government , businesses , and individuals to put these lessons into practice .
For example , in addition to physical distancing measures , limits on capacity , and requiring mask-wearing , governments and businesses could also take into account other details we are learning about superspreading events , like @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
For example , as Colorado shifts to allow bars to open and indoor events to take place this weekend , it could establish guidelines to limit noise levels ( by , for example , not allowing loud music ) so that people don ’ t need to yell or talk loudly .
Some current efforts to prevent superspreading — like taking people ’ s temperature before they enter a building — can help , but are not failproof .
Even if a business , day care , or large-scale event checks everyone @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ it won ’ t necessarily pick up everyone who is infectious , ” Kucharski says .
McGraw agrees , noting that it “ is really only going to catch a subset of people ” who have the virus .
For example , some infected individuals never develop a fever , or “ their fever rises and falls over a single day ” or changes through the illness , she says .
One company that has tested more than 30,000 people for Covid-19 recently reported that just 12 percent of people with positive @ @ @ @ @ @ @ or higher .
And only 37 percent even had a cough .
One thing that will help reduce these events is more contact tracing and testing .
These tools would also help us learn more about the nuances of superspreading and prevent more of it in the future .
If those 10 or 20 percent of people who would have sparked 80 percent of the new infections instead only passed the illness on to one or two other people , we could be in a much different place , and soon .
A @ @ @ @ @ @ @ infectious disease experts , who know well what potential superspreading situations to avoid .
McGraw says , “ Right now , I would not go to a gym , an indoor restaurant , or big , crowded events like rallies , concerts , nightclubs , etc.
” What would she feel comfortable doing ?
“ I might dine outside , if the tables were spaced apart , and I felt like the customers and restaurant staff were taking precautions.
” Just this past week , she went camping with her family , but @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ For other places , like parks and beaches , my advice is to be prepared to leave if they get crowded and you can not safely distance , ” she says .
For his part , Kucharski cites the simple guidelines Japan has put out : avoid , when at all possible , the “ 3 Cs ” — closed environments , crowded places , and close-contact settings .
And it ’ s a reminder that large , entirely optional indoor events , like political campaign rallies ( for any candidate ) @ @ @ @ @ @ @ not just for those who attend , but also for those they might come into contact with later .
Katherine Harmon Courage is a freelance science journalist and author of Cultured and Octopus !
Find her on Twitter at @ KHCourage .
Update : This story was updated with a discussion of the risks associated with outdoor protests .
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Your financial contribution will not constitute a donation , but it will enable our staff to continue to offer free articles , videos , and podcasts at the quality and volume that this moment requires .
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How superspreading is fueling the pandemic — and how we can stop it
Share All sharing options for: How superspreading is fueling the pandemic — and how we can stop it
We now know that, on average, most people with the novel coronavirus pass the virus to just one other person, or to no one else at all.
But some go on to infect many, many more, often before they even experience symptoms. Many of these transmission chains begin with “superspreading” events, where one person (usually in a crowded indoor space) passes the virus to dozens of others. Early contact tracing studies suggest these events have been a large driver of transmission around the world. By some estimates, 10 percent of people have been causing 80 percent of new infections.
This is one of the reasons experts worry about large indoor gatherings — more so than outdoor ones — causing large spikes in case numbers.
With Friday’s news that at least 12 people who work in the White House or have recently attended events there, including President Donald Trump, have tested positive for the coronavirus, there are questions about whether the maskless indoor receptions on September 26 to celebrate Trump’s nomination of Judge Amy Coney Barrett to the Supreme Court kicked off a superspreading event.
The Amy Coney Barrett Rose Garden announcement was a superspreader event, despite being outdoors.
Single risk reduction measures are not enough. Multiple measures are needed:
Masks AND distancing AND avoid crowds AND hygiene AND avoid prolonged contact.https://t.co/gqO23wjsHk — Dr. Angela Rasmussen (@angie_rasmussen) October 3, 2020
To date, some of the largest superspreading events have happened aboard ships, including Navy carriers and cruise ships. But they are also happening in smaller settings, including at a church in Arkansas.
In early March, a 57-year-old pastor and his wife, who both felt fine, attended a series of church events over three days, and the pastor returned for an additional Bible study group a few days later. Soon after, they each started developing symptoms and eventually tested positive for the coronavirus. But it had already spread. At least 33 of the other 92 event attendees later tested positive for Covid-19, and three of them died. These cases then spawned more than two dozen other illnesses — and another death — in the community.
One preliminary Centers for Disease Control and Prevention report analyzed all of the 3,184 confirmed Covid-19 cases in Japan through the beginning of April. The researchers found that 61 percent of cases could be definitively traced to clusters of spread outside the household, such as at restaurants, bars, event venues, and workplaces. And this is likely an undercount due to limitations in contact tracing.
Superspreading events can lead to potentially thousands of cases in the community, as an August 25 preprint that hasn’t yet been peer reviewed suggests. The authors sequenced the full viral genome in 772 Covid-19 cases in the Boston region, including 28 early cases that were linked to a late-February conference for the biotech company Biogen. By finding a specific genetic mutation in the conference infections, they could then trace the chain of transmission. This one variant was found in about one in three later cases in their Boston area study (and about 2.7 percent of all of the analyzed US cases), suggesting that the Biogen conference led to an estimated 20,000 Covid-19 cases in total.
What causes these superspreading clusters, and why are they such a key driver of this pandemic? Is it something about the people themselves who start them? Or is it more about the settings where these events take place? Or a combination?
Thankfully, we are learning more about superspreading events, and this insight can help dramatically slow the spread of the coronavirus and save lives — all while potentially allowing more people to return to less risky activities. That is, if policymakers implement the guidance, and people follow it. “If you could reduce superspreading, you could have a massive impact on the pandemic,” Elizabeth McGraw, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Dynamics at Pennsylvania State University, told Vox in an email. Let’s walk through it.
Why is the coronavirus so good at superspreading?
To understand what might kick off a superspreading event, let’s review some basics about how this virus, SARS-CoV-2, spreads. Researchers have found that it often spreads through microscopic droplets created when an infected person coughs or sneezes — or even speaks — and another person breathes them in. These disease-containing droplets are a large part of the reasoning behind staying at least 6 feet away from people and wearing a mask in public.
But scientists are finding that the virus likely also spreads through even tinier, longer-lasting aerosols particles from breathing or speaking (or flushing a toilet). These are so small they can linger in the air after an infectious person has left — and may contain infectious virus particles for up to three hours. And they may be a key element to superspreading events: An infected person could seed a poorly ventilated indoor space with virus without even getting physically close to all the people they end up infecting.
Superspreading also appears to be more likely with SARS-CoV-2 because people typically have the highest level of the virus in their system (making them infectious) right before they develop symptoms. (This is very different from other severe coronaviruses like SARS and MERS, where people were most infectious seven to 10 days after they started feeling sick, when they were more likely to be in isolation or in medical care.) So thousands of people with active Covid-19 infections continue to go about their lives not knowing that they could be spreading the disease.
This has meant that, as some researchers noted in a preprint, “most transmissions are front-loaded” toward the beginning of the illness. As another team of researchers who analyzed cases and contacts in Taiwan noted in JAMA, people actually had a much lower risk of spreading the virus after five days of symptoms. This might be in part because sick people are less likely to go out, whether because they don’t want to spread their illness or because they simply don’t feel up to it.
But it also has to do with a person’s “viral load” — an amount that actually tends to go down as symptoms wear on. A May study of samples collected from patients, published in Clinical Infectious Disease, suggests that people who had symptoms for more than eight days might not actually be very infectious.
“I think the virus’s biggest weapon has been that it can be spread by asymptomatic or presymptomatic people”
All of this makes it so much more likely for people to be spreading the virus — sometimes to very large groups of people — unwittingly.
“I think the virus’s biggest weapon has been that it can be spread by asymptomatic or presymptomatic people,” McGraw says. “This, in combination with insufficient testing of people in the community, has meant that it can move from one host to the next while we are unaware.”
This coronavirus’s uneven spread is calculated by its “dispersion factor” (sometimes abbreviated as “k”): what proportion of cases cause the bulk of transmissions. An even dispersion rate would mean most people cause the same number of secondary infections.
We still don’t have an entirely firm k factor for Covid-19, and a lot of the research is still in the prepublication phase and has not been peer-reviewed. But preliminary estimates, such as one co-authored by Adam Kucharski, an infectious disease dynamics expert at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, suggest that about 10 percent of infected people cause about 80 percent of the virus’s spread.
Another early, non-peer-reviewed study from Israel put the local k factor at between 1 and 10 percent of infected people causing 80 percent of new infections. And a preliminary analysis of superspreading events in Hong Kong put their estimates at around 20 percent of infections causing 80 percent of local transmission.
All of this shows how important superspreading events have been in the virus’s spread. But it doesn’t fully explain why they are happening — or how to stop them.
Are certain people more likely to be superspreaders?
Scientists are learning that a person’s likelihood of kicking off a superspreading event probably depends a little bit on biology and a lot on behavior.
Some individuals seem to develop higher amounts of the virus in their system, upping their odds of transmitting it to others.
And given that the amount of virus in the body tends to shift over the duration of infection — rising until around the onset of symptoms, then declining — the chance that someone is a likely superspreader changes over time.
Another preprint posted on August 7 developed a model to better understand how these dynamics might be playing out for SARS-CoV-2. The research suggests that people carrying this virus are potentially infectious for about two and a half days — and rise to a “moderate probability of transmission per contact” for “less than half a day,” the researchers write.
This means that it would likely take someone having contact with a large number of people during the window when they had fairly large amounts of the virus (more than 10 million RNA copies) to spark a superspreading event infecting more than 50 people (whereas someone with 100,000 viral RNA copies was unlikely to infect others).
This helps us understand how superspreading can happen by chance, on a population level. Finding out whether some people are predisposed to be superspreaders will take more time and research, McGraw says.
But what we have been learning is how individuals’ behavior could increase the chance they spread the virus to many others — or not. “We do know that wearing masks, keeping up physical distancing, avoiding crowds, and isolating upon becoming sick or testing positive can prevent superspreading,” she says.
The CDC report out of Japan found 22 people who likely started clusters of cases. (Half of them were 20 to 39 years old.) And for 16 people, the research team could figure out when transmission occurred, which is important because it showed that 41 percent of them didn’t have any symptoms when they spread the virus. In fact, of the superspreaders, only one had a cough when they infected others.
And as the authors of the August 7 preprint found, about 62 percent of superspreading transmissions happened when the spreader was presymptomatic.
This points to an important nuance in thinking about how some individuals might be sickening a disproportionate number of others. “We should not think about superspreaders as villains,” McGraw says. “Any one of us could unknowingly be a superspreader” — especially given what we know about how much it spreads when people are feeling just fine.
But that means we can probably also avoid becoming a superspreader by doing things we already know can limit the spread of the virus: “Wear a mask. Wash your hands. Keep your distance, and respect the physical space of others,” McGraw says.
As the pandemic has worn on and become increasingly politicized, however, many people in the US are now resisting continued precautions, leading to mask rebellions, large gatherings — and much greater chances of new superspreading events.
“I see an increasing number of people not wearing masks in public as restrictions ease,” McGraw says. “I find it disappointing. I worry that our focus on personal freedoms in the US, rather than being more community-minded, is going to prolong the outbreak and lead to more deaths than necessary.”
Why superspreading is more common at concerts than in libraries
Although we know that individuals’ behavior plays a role in superspreading, what might be even more important for these events is where they happen.
Researchers have been tracking many superspreading events around the globe, and there seem to be recurring locations no matter what the country. In addition to those we have heard most about, like prisons, food processing plants, and elder care facilities, there have also been numerous large superspreading events at bars, churches, offices, gyms, and shopping centers.
These are also places, though, that are now reopening around the country and likely contributing to the upward swing of cases in many states. As Kucharski wrote in an email to Vox, “Identifying and reducing risky events and environments could make a substantial dent in transmission.” Not reducing these events has the opposite effect on the number of cases.
For example, as South Korea started to reopen in early May, one infected person who attended five nightclubs caused at least 50 new infections.
And a preliminary study of infection clusters in Hong Kong found that the largest one documented so far, which resulted in 106 Covid-19 cases, was linked back to exposures from staff and musicians at a series of bars. Seventy-three of the people in this cluster caught the virus at the bars (including 39 who were customers), who then spread it to others in the community.
A team of researchers at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine has been collecting data on these superspreading events in a public database. The largest ones — including two that resulted in more than 1,000 cases each — happened aboard ships. Hundreds of cases also have originated from single individuals in close contact with others in worker dormitories, food processing plants, prisons, and elder care facilities.
But next on the list are an outbreak tied to a single person at an indoor-outdoor shopping market in Peru who likely infected 163 other people; an indoor-outdoor religious service in India where one person likely sickened 130 others; and an indoor-outdoor wedding in New Zealand where a single case sparked 98 more.
Only one of the 22 cluster location types the team analyzed in a preliminary study was an outdoor setting (building sites in Singapore; four clusters were linked to these sites, causing a total of 95 infections acquired directly from the sites).
These findings line up with other preliminary research that calculated closed environments to be almost 20 times more likely to spur additional coronavirus infections than open-air ones.
There was concern that the massive protests across the US, which started in late May after the killing of George Floyd, would become superspreading events. So far the data suggests that wasn’t the case, with no large surge in cases in cities that had the largest demonstrations.
This lines up with the science. “Outdoor events like the protests are inherently less risky than indoor events, given greater airflow,” McGraw says. “It is also easier to spread out and maintain physical distancing.” And photographs of the protests have shown that a large number of people have been wearing masks. Still, no massive gathering is guaranteed to stay Covid-19-free. “There will still be increased risk of transmission given the large number of people present,” she says.
It also appears that not all indoor venues and events are equally risky when it comes to starting a large cluster of new cases.
As we’ve learned from studying events, like the infamous March church choir practice in Skagit County, Washington, during which one person infected an estimated 52 of 61 people (two of whom died), loud talking and singing “can spread more virus than talking at a normal volume,” McGraw says.
Indeed, the recent analysis out of Japan found that “many Covid-19 clusters were associated with heavy breathing in close proximity, such as singing at karaoke parties, cheering at clubs, having conversations in bars, and exercising in gymnasiums.”
Even looking more closely at cases from these locations can give us clues about what makes superspreading more likely. A CDC report from South Korea detailed 112 Covid-19 infections that came from aerobic dance classes (like Zumba) in one city. Interestingly, an instructor who infected dance class participants also taught yoga and Pilates classes, but none of those participants got ill.
“We hypothesize that the lower intensity of pilates and yoga did not cause the same transmission effects as those more intense fitness dance classes,” the authors noted. “The moist, warm atmosphere in a sports facility coupled with turbulent air flow generated by intense physical exercise can cause more dense transmission of isolated droplets,” thereby making the virus more likely to spread.
These hubs of contagion also are helping us learn what activities might be safer, like seeing small groups of people, from a distance, outdoors.
“There’s increasing evidence that certain environments, like socially distanced picnics with a few other people, are far less risky than crowded, close-knit interactions, like large gatherings indoors,” says Kucharski, who is also the author of The Rules of Contagion.
What should we be doing to limit superspreading?
Superspreading can be both a curse and a potential blessing in a disease outbreak. It means that having everyone on full lockdown is not necessarily essential to keep the disease in check when it is not already circulating widely in a community — if (and that’s an important “if”) we can determine the highest risks for superspreading and prevent them. That’s the blessing. The curse, Kucharski says, is “if risky situations are missed or undetected, it means transmission could persist.”
Not only that, but there is also the danger that, as the authors of one early report note, “If a superspreader is infected, the disease may spread to other superspreaders.” This seems entirely possible, especially given that people surrounding an original superspreader were probably already engaging in behavior (like attending a crowded public location) that would make them more likely to be a superspreader, too.
Superspreading events also can strain other systems in place, like contact tracing, to contain the virus, increasing the odds that further infections will continue to spiral in the community. Just as a sudden spike in cases can surpass the capacity of health care systems, a big jump can also surpass local capacity to track and notify contacts of the infected to isolate and get tested.
But now that we have data from recent superspreading events, we could theoretically prevent future ones. For example, the preprint modeling superspreading dynamics suggests that just reducing exposure opportunities, such as events with 20 or more possible people, could get the virus’s spread under control.
The good news is that the science on this is growing. But it depends on government, businesses, and individuals to put these lessons into practice.
For example, in addition to physical distancing measures, limits on capacity, and requiring mask-wearing, governments and businesses could also take into account other details we are learning about superspreading events, like loud environments that encourage more droplet-filled speech.
One thing that will help reduce these events is more contact tracing, isolation, and testing. If those 10 or 20 percent of people who would have sparked 80 percent of the new infections instead only passed the illness on to one or two other people, we could be in a much different place, and soon.
A first step is following the lead of infectious disease experts, who know well what potential superspreading situations to avoid. McGraw says, “I might dine outside, if the tables were spaced apart, and I felt like the customers and restaurant staff were taking precautions.” Earlier this summer, she went camping with her family, but she chose campgrounds following CDC guidelines. “For other places, like parks and beaches, my advice is to be prepared to leave if they get crowded and you cannot safely distance,” she says.
For his part, Kucharski cites the simple guidelines Japan has put out: avoid, when at all possible, the “3 Cs” — closed environments, crowded places, and close-contact settings.
Katherine Harmon Courage is a freelance science journalist and author of Cultured and Octopus! Find her on Twitter at @KHCourage.
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What day is it today?

Today is Monday , June 22 , 2020 , at least in the continental United States .
It is already Tuesday , June 23 , 2020 , in some parts of the world .
To some degree , time is an illusion .
We are bound by its forward passage , being the third-dimensional creatures we are , but the perceptions we have placed upon time have been invented .
Humans invented the year .
Humans invented the month .
Humans invented the day , the hour , the minute , the second .
These distinctions are not arbitrary — @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for the Earth to orbit the sun — but their creation was not inevitable .
Our numerical system is likely base-10 because we have 10 fingers ; the way we understand time is almost entirely dependent on the fact that we evolved on this planet , circling this sun .
Time , at least as we understand it , is also a byproduct of capitalism .
In his seminal 1967 economic paper “ Work-Discipline and Industrial Capitalism , ” E. P. Thompson notes that in early human cultures , delineations of time were @ @ @ @ @ @ @ up and went down , when the seasons changed .
But as industrialization became the norm , time became a mechanized system that no longer served those who ’ d invented it .
We increasingly served at the beck and call of time , for that is how those who possessed capital could best regulate those who performed the labor .
For we are now at a point where sociologists are discussing the “ problem ” of leisure .
And a part of the problem is : how did it come to be @ @ @ @ @ @ @ marriage of convenience with industrial capitalism , was the agent which converted men to new valuations of time ; which taught children even in their infancy to improve each shining hour ; and which saturated men ’ s minds with the equation , time is money .
One recurrent form of revolt within Western industrial capitalism , whether bohemian or beatnik , has often taken the form of flouting the urgency of respectable timevalues .
And the interesting question arises : if Puritanism was a necessary part of the work-ethos which enabled the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ poverty-stricken economies of the past , will the Puritan valuation of time begin to decompose as the pressures of poverty relax ?
Is it decomposing already ?
Will men begin to lose that restless urgency , that desire to consume time purposively , which most people carry just as they carry a watch on their wrists ?
But it remains that on some base level , we will always understand time .
The sun comes up , the sun goes down .
Though we might be inside , where that process is more @ @ @ @ @ @ @ our insideness does not obscure the day and night cycle .
What is lost , as each day blends into the next , in vaguely similar ways , is the mechanistic definition of time , the capitalist definition of time , the industrial definition of time .
We do not know what day it is , but we do know when there is a new day .
To live inside is to lose distinction .
There is a numbing effect that occurs when each day is the same , when our schedules are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ gulf of undifferentiated time .
And yet isn ’ t this how so many of the less privileged around the world , forced to work jobs involving menial labor , day after day after day , already live ?
Isn ’ t this why we invented the weekend ?
Has this quarantine simply shown to those of us with more economic privilege that our “ free time ” was always a mirage , which could disappear before our eyes , by giving us so much “ free ” time ?
I have a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and when I need to orient myself in time , I look at it .
But even the usefulness of my calendar has started to fray around the edges .
I began writing this story because I couldn ’ t quite believe it was a Thursday , even as I knew it had to be a Thursday .
But it might as well not be .
A cycle that bears the sun across our sky until it sets in the west is a reality ; “ Thursday ” is an invention .
Is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ t know .
I will update this article daily until we don ’ t need it anymore .
I hope there is a time when we know it is Thursday or Tuesday or June 17 without having to look at a calendar or ask each other or Google .
I hope there is a time when going outside to see the sun doesn ’ t feel like exposing yourself to toxic levels of radiation .
( I know I should be taking walks ; every time , I feel like I ’ m @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is a time in which all this “ free ” time no longer feels like a period we must exploit for maximum value .
I hope there is a time when I remember what it ’ s like to grab lunch with a friend , to watch dogs play in the surf , to breathe in the air and just be .
Until then , find a way to make time have meaning for you .
Read a long book .
Cook an elaborate meal .
Take up knitting .
Write an epic @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ ve always meant to get to .
Sleep .
Remember that time doesn ’ t own you , and that you own time .
This will be over someday , a part of the past .
It will someday be a memory .
Hang on to that .
I ’ ll see you outside again .
For now , it is Monday , June 22 , 2020 .
In some parts of the world , it is Tuesday , June 23 , 2020 .
Are you a “ What day is it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ our official theme song .
It ’ s written by composer Laura Stratford , and it is wonderful .

Today is Wednesday, July 1, 2020, at least in the continental United States. It is already Thursday, July 2, 2020, in some parts of the world. Life isn’t resuming gracefully, but the herky jerky train wreck of America’s reopening certainly speaks to some desire to exit this quarantine period. And so “What Day Is It Today” will exit the stage, too. For now, at least.
To some degree, time is an illusion. We are bound by its forward passage, being the third-dimensional creatures we are, but the perceptions we have placed upon time have been invented. Humans invented the year. Humans invented the month. Humans invented the day, the hour, the minute, the second.
These distinctions are not arbitrary — it really does take about 365 days for the Earth to orbit the sun — but their creation was not inevitable. Our numerical system is likely base-10 because we have 10 fingers; the way we understand time is almost entirely dependent on the fact that we evolved on this planet, circling this sun.
Time, at least as we understand it, is also a byproduct of capitalism. In his seminal 1967 economic paper “Work-Discipline and Industrial Capitalism,” E. P. Thompson notes that in early human cultures, delineations of time were broad understandings of when the sun came up and went down, when the seasons changed. But as industrialization became the norm, time became a mechanized system that no longer served those who’d invented it. We increasingly served at the beck and call of time, for that is how those who possessed capital could best regulate those who performed the labor.
Thompson writes:
For we are now at a point where sociologists are discussing the “problem” of leisure. And a part of the problem is: how did it come to be a problem ? Puritanism, in its marriage of convenience with industrial capitalism, was the agent which converted men to new valuations of time; which taught children even in their infancy to improve each shining hour; and which saturated men’s minds with the equation, time is money. One recurrent form of revolt within Western industrial capitalism, whether bohemian or beatnik, has often taken the form of flouting the urgency of respectable timevalues. And the interesting question arises: if Puritanism was a necessary part of the work-ethos which enabled the industrialized world to break out of the poverty-stricken economies of the past, will the Puritan valuation of time begin to decompose as the pressures of poverty relax? Is it decomposing already? Will men begin to lose that restless urgency, that desire to consume time purposively, which most people carry just as they carry a watch on their wrists?
But it remains that on some base level, we will always understand time. The sun comes up, the sun goes down. Though we might be inside, where that process is more difficult to witness, the fact of our insideness does not obscure the day and night cycle. What is lost, as each day blends into the next, in vaguely similar ways, is the mechanistic definition of time, the capitalist definition of time, the industrial definition of time. We do not know what day it is, but we do know when there is a new day.
To live inside is to lose distinction. There is a numbing effect that occurs when each day is the same, when our schedules are subsumed by what feels like an endless gulf of undifferentiated time. And yet isn’t this how so many of the less privileged around the world, forced to work jobs involving menial labor, day after day after day, already live? Isn’t this why we invented the weekend? Has this quarantine simply shown to those of us with more economic privilege that our “free time” was always a mirage, which could disappear before our eyes, by giving us so much “free” time?
I have a wall calendar hanging above my desk, and when I need to orient myself in time, I look at it. But even the usefulness of my calendar has started to fray around the edges. I began writing this story because I couldn’t quite believe it was a Thursday, even as I knew it had to be a Thursday. But it might as well not be. A cycle that bears the sun across our sky until it sets in the west is a reality; “Thursday” is an invention. Is it still necessary? I don’t know.
What’s important to remember is that time doesn’t own you. You own time. This will be over someday, a part of the past. It will someday be a memory. Hang on to that. I’ll see you outside again.
This story was originally published Friday, March 27, 2020.
Are you a “What day is it today?” superfan? Check out our official theme song. It’s written by composer Laura Stratford, and it is wonderful.


vox--2020-06-22--K-pop fan activism for Black Lives Matter needs context

K-pop fans gained new attention this weekend , after they claimed to have registered thousands of tickets for President Trump ’ s rally in Tulsa , Oklahoma , with the intention of not showing up .
To the president ’ s dismay , the arena ended up appearing more than half empty during the rally , leading some K-pop fans to declare victory — although it ’ s not clear how much of that was due to the fans ’ actions .
The stunt was viewed by many as a demonstration of allyship with Black Lives Matter-supporting protesters and Juneteenth @ @ @ @ @ @ @ fans ’ sabotage earlier this month of a surveillance app used by the Dallas Police Department — an app that the police encouraged locals to use to send tips about illegal activity among protesters .
K-pop fans also recently participated in the derailment of a “ White Lives Matter ” hashtag , which they flooded with pictures and videos of their favorite idols .
And although these actions have been celebrated by many on the left , including by politicians and protesters themselves , some music fans think it ’ s important to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ fandom — has a history of cultural misappropriation and racism .
In recent years , Korean pop idols have been called out for perpetuating stereotypes about black Americans and for misappropriating black culture by wearing , for example , cornrows and dreadlocks .
Artists have also received some backlash for stating that they are skilled at “ talking Black ” and for racist acts like wearing blackface .
“ It sounds sort of racist because it often is racist , ” Miranda Ruth Larsen , a K-pop fan and cultural studies researcher at @ @ @ @ @ @ @ focuses on male Korean and Japanese idols and groups , said during an interview for the Vox podcast Reset .
That said , the cultural misappropriation ( a term Larsen prefers to “ cultural appropriation , ” which she says typically refers to a more conscious process ) within K-pop shouldn ’ t be blamed solely on the artists .
“ So let ’ s say that a K-pop artist is wearing a controversial hairstyle — like they ’ re wearing dreads or they ’ re wearing cornrows — eight times out of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ hairstyle , ” Larsen said .
“ The decision for their hairstyle came from a company , came to a manager , came through an entire chain of command that is responsible and culpable for this bad decision.
” For Larsen , making sure fans and journalists understand this history and way the industry functions is crucial .
Without it , it ’ s impossible to get a full picture of what these recent online activism campaigns coming from K-pop fandoms represent .
Listen to the episode of Reset below .
Subscribe to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , Spotify or wherever you listen to podcasts .
Every day at Vox , we aim to answer your most important questions and provide you , and our audience around the world , with information that has the power to save lives .
Our mission has never been more vital than it is in this moment : to empower you through understanding .
Vox ’ s work is reaching more people than ever , but our distinctive brand of explanatory journalism takes resources — particularly during a pandemic and an economic downturn .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ donation , but it will enable our staff to continue to offer free articles , videos , and podcasts at the quality and volume that this moment requires .
Please consider making a contribution to Vox today .

K-pop fans gained new attention this weekend, after they claimed to have registered thousands of tickets for President Trump’s rally in Tulsa, Oklahoma, with the intention of not showing up. To the president’s dismay, the arena ended up appearing more than half empty during the rally, leading some K-pop fans to declare victory — although it’s not clear how much of that was due to the fans’ actions.
The stunt was viewed by many as a demonstration of allyship with Black Lives Matter-supporting protesters and Juneteenth celebrants. It followed Korean pop music fans’ sabotage earlier this month of a surveillance app used by the Dallas Police Department — an app that the police encouraged locals to use to send tips about illegal activity among protesters. K-pop fans also recently participated in the derailment of a “White Lives Matter” hashtag, which they flooded with pictures and videos of their favorite idols.
And although these actions have been celebrated by many on the left, including by politicians and protesters themselves, some music fans think it’s important to also remember that K-pop — including its fandom — has a history of cultural misappropriation and racism. In recent years, Korean pop idols have been called out for perpetuating stereotypes about black Americans and for misappropriating black culture by wearing, for example, cornrows and dreadlocks. Artists have also received some backlash for stating that they are skilled at “talking Black” and for racist acts like wearing blackface.
“It sounds sort of racist because it often is racist,” Miranda Ruth Larsen, a K-pop fan and cultural studies researcher at the University of Tokyo, whose work focuses on male Korean and Japanese idols and groups, said during an interview for the Vox podcast Reset.
That said, the cultural misappropriation (a term Larsen prefers to “cultural appropriation,” which she says typically refers to a more conscious process) within K-pop shouldn’t be blamed solely on the artists.
“So let’s say that a K-pop artist is wearing a controversial hairstyle — like they’re wearing dreads or they’re wearing cornrows — eight times out of 10, they did not pick that hairstyle,” Larsen said. “The decision for their hairstyle came from a company, came to a manager, came through an entire chain of command that is responsible and culpable for this bad decision.”
For Larsen, making sure fans and journalists understand this history and way the industry functions is crucial. Without it, it’s impossible to get a full picture of what these recent online activism campaigns coming from K-pop fandoms represent.
Listen to the episode of Reset below.
Subscribe to Reset on Apple Podcasts, Google Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you listen to podcasts.


vox--2020-06-22--South Korea was a model for how to control the coronavirus. Now, it faces a second wave.

After an aggressive — and mostly successful — push to limit the spread of the coronavirus , South Korean health officials have announced that the greater Seoul area is experiencing a second wave as the number of infections rises .
The number of new cases flatlined in late April due to a nationwide contact tracing and testing effort .
But relaxed social distancing guidelines have triggered a series of small , but concerning , outbreaks — like one in May linked to a 29-year-old man who tested positive for Covid-19 days after partying at Seoul nightclubs with more than 7,000 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of the Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention , confirmed Monday that the rise in cases is likely linked to increased socializing over a May holiday weekend and could continue to spread unless South Koreans engage in social distancing .
“ As long as close contact amongst people continues to take place , the coronavirus trends in and around Seoul have the makings of the next big wave , ” she said .
Officials announced 17 new cases on Monday , which is down from the 48 and 67 new cases reported @ @ @ @ @ @ @ double-digit numbers are small compared to countries bearing the brunt of the pandemic , they ’ re unmistakably higher than the single-digit numbers South Korea was reporting in late April and early May .
In response to the recent spikes , Seoul Mayor Park Won-soon said he would resume stricter social distancing guidelines if the city sees an average of 30 new cases for three days , or if hospital occupancy reaches 70 percent .
The city of Daejeon — which is south of the capital — announced Monday it would ban gatherings @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , according to the BBC .
Before the second wave , South Korea flattened their curve South Korea was one of the first countries to experience a serious outbreak of the coronavirus .
The first case was reported on January 20 , and the number of new cases peaked on February 29 , when more than 900 new cases were diagnosed in a 24-hour period .
But the outbreak was quickly managed by widespread testing and contact tracing initiatives , which allowed the country to avoid implementing large-scale lockdowns like the United States @ @ @ @ @ @ @ testing , South Korean officials communicated information about new spikes and social distancing protocols through emergency text messages .
Smartphone apps also helped South Koreans receive preliminary diagnoses via telemedicine .
The government also used phone tracking , credit card records , surveillance video , and personal interviews to conduct contact tracing to alert people who may have interacted with a carrier of the virus .
Things appeared to be as normal as they could be during a pandemic — on April 15 , South Koreans could vote in elections in person as @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and gloves , and in early May , social distancing restrictions were eased .
To date , South Korea has recorded more than 12,400 cases and 280 deaths — far less than the United States and Brazil , which lead in positive cases with more than 2 million and 1 million , respectively .
Every day at Vox , we aim to answer your most important questions and provide you , and our audience around the world , with information that has the power to save lives .
Our mission has never been @ @ @ @ @ @ @ moment : to empower you through understanding .
Vox ’ s work is reaching more people than ever , but our distinctive brand of explanatory journalism takes resources — particularly during a pandemic and an economic downturn .
Your financial contribution will not constitute a donation , but it will enable our staff to continue to offer free articles , videos , and podcasts at the quality and volume that this moment requires .
Please consider making a contribution to Vox today .

After an aggressive — and mostly successful — push to limit the spread of the coronavirus, South Korean health officials have announced that the greater Seoul area is experiencing a second wave as the number of infections rises.
The number of new cases flatlined in late April due to a nationwide contact tracing and testing effort. But relaxed social distancing guidelines have triggered a series of small, but concerning, outbreaks — like one in May linked to a 29-year-old man who tested positive for Covid-19 days after partying at Seoul nightclubs with more than 7,000 people.
Jung Eun-kyeong, the director of the Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, confirmed Monday that the rise in cases is likely linked to increased socializing over a May holiday weekend and could continue to spread unless South Koreans engage in social distancing.
“As long as close contact amongst people continues to take place, the coronavirus trends in and around Seoul have the makings of the next big wave,” she said.
Officials announced 17 new cases on Monday, which is down from the 48 and 67 new cases reported the two days prior. Although these double-digit numbers are small compared to countries bearing the brunt of the pandemic, they’re unmistakably higher than the single-digit numbers South Korea was reporting in late April and early May.
In response to the recent spikes, Seoul Mayor Park Won-soon said he would resume stricter social distancing guidelines if the city sees an average of 30 new cases for three days, or if hospital occupancy reaches 70 percent. The city of Daejeon — which is south of the capital — announced Monday it would ban gatherings in public places like museums and libraries, according to the BBC.
Before the second wave, South Korea flattened their curve
South Korea was one of the first countries to experience a serious outbreak of the coronavirus. The first case was reported on January 20, and the number of new cases peaked on February 29, when more than 900 new cases were diagnosed in a 24-hour period.
But the outbreak was quickly managed by widespread testing and contact tracing initiatives, which allowed the country to avoid implementing large-scale lockdowns like the United States.
In addition to drive-through and walk-up testing, South Korean officials communicated information about new spikes and social distancing protocols through emergency text messages. Smartphone apps also helped South Koreans receive preliminary diagnoses via telemedicine.
The government also used phone tracking, credit card records, surveillance video, and personal interviews to conduct contact tracing to alert people who may have interacted with a carrier of the virus.
Things appeared to be as normal as they could be during a pandemic — on April 15, South Koreans could vote in elections in person as long as they had a face mask and gloves, and in early May, social distancing restrictions were eased.
To date, South Korea has recorded more than 12,400 cases and 280 deaths — far less than the United States and Brazil, which lead in positive cases with more than 2 million and 1 million, respectively.


vox--2020-06-22--Why it feels like there are a lot more fireworks this year

America , or at least its urban precincts , is awash in small-scale and likely illegal nightly fireworks displays .
Or at a minimum , it is awash in reports of such displays , with everyone from Oprah magazine to the New York Times weighing in on the increased firework activity .
New York City saw a massive increase in complaints about fireworks filed this June ; Boston also has a large , verifiable increase in complaints .
Most cities don ’ t make this data available , so it ’ s harder to assess exactly what ’ s going @ @ @ @ @ @ @ I heard more fireworks in DC this month than I have in my previous 16 years in my neighborhoods , and colleagues around the country feel the same way .
The apparent trend , paired with a lack of clear information and a growing climate of distrust in institutions , has sparked some fairly extreme theories , including a potential police department psyop .
It is unfortunately not possible at this point to deliver a completely unambiguous explanation .
There do , however , appear to be a number of more everyday factors @ @ @ @ @ @ @ downstream consequences of the coronavirus pandemic may be contributing to firework noise .
One is that people are spending more time at home , with more opportunity to notice things .
For similar reasons , cities are quieter in general , which makes noises more noticeable .
Kids have been stuck at home for months unable to attend school or hang out with friends in normal ways , and fireworks are a fun way to pass the time .
And just when there ’ s more potential interest in creating ad hoc city @ @ @ @ @ @ @ inventory due to the cancellation of many July Fourth fireworks shows .
Last but by no means least , it ’ s certainly possible that enforcement of fireworks rules has gotten less vigorous — perhaps not so much as part of an elaborate plot as a natural consequence of police power being stretched thin .
For those of us who enjoy fireworks , it ’ s an unexpected summer treat that ’ s helping to break up the tedium of quarantine .
But annoyed dog owners and light sleepers probably can ’ t @ @ @ @ @ @ @ supply is present dries up soon after July 4 .
Robert Jones Jr. , a writer whose debut novel The Prophets is scheduled for release in January , has offered what ’ s probably the most detailed version of the conspiratorial account of the fireworks surge .
“ My neighbors and I believe that this is part of a coordinated attack on Black and Brown communities by government forces , ” he tweeted on June 20 , “ an attack meant to disorient and destabilize the # BlackLivesMatter movement.
” In his view @ @ @ @ @ @ @ two-pronged effort to promote sleep deprivation and desensitization to explosive noises in urban minority neighborhoods .
Jones further posited that “ there is NO WAY IN THE WORLD that young Black and Brown people would otherwise have access to these PROFESSIONAL fireworks ” and that the likely explanation is the fireworks are being deliberately provided to youngsters by government agents .
This theory seems a little extreme , but it received an apparent endorsement from New York Times Pulitzer Prize-winning star Nikole Hannah-Jones on Twitter ; the tweet now appears to have been @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is that we do have clear reports of firefighters getting in on the fun , and anecdotes suggest some police officers are taking a relaxed attitude toward this version of hard-to-conceal illegal activity .
The US government certainly has an extensive record of malign meddling with civil rights activists , not only as a historical matter but also in the form of very recent efforts to concoct a violent “ black identity extremist ” movement around Black Lives Matter activism .
But before reaching for “ coordinated attack ” theories , it ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
The fireworks industry is heavily geared toward July Fourth Fireworks are awesome , and in principle , one could enjoy a delightful fireworks display any day of the year .
In practice , however , the American Pyrotechnics Association reports that nearly 80 percent of display firework revenue is associated with July Fourth celebrations , which are widespread across the United States .
This year , many of those celebrations have been canceled , and many other firework-intensive events like pro sports have also been impacted by the pandemic .
This creates @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the professional display market to the consumer market , complete with the possibility of bargain-basement prices .
Combine increased availability of fireworks with pandemic-induced boredom and you have the recipe for unusually lively summer nights .
The fireworks trade association , however , is pushing back on the diversion theory , arguing that the pro and consumer fireworks markets are more sharply segmented than that .
“ Professionals use much more energetic fireworks not available to the general public without an ATF license for possession , use , and storage , ” Julie @ @ @ @ @ @ @ American Pyrotechnic Association , tells me .
“ Those devices are not permitted to be sold to the general public and should only be used by highly trained , licensed professionals.
” Consumer firework sales also typically peak in late June and early July for use on July 4 , and Heckman says that this year , “ there is definitely an increase in backyard consumer fireworks sales , starting earlier than in previous years.
” Heckman publicly predicted a boom in consumer demand at a June 3 industry roundtable and simply sees @ @ @ @ @ @ @ this account , the connection to event cancellations is just that people miss fireworks , so they are buying more for themselves .
Of course , the fireworks trade association isn ’ t going to come out and say there ’ s illegal diversion of professional fireworks happening .
But the perception that people are seeing “ professional ” fireworks in their neighborhood may be a question of regulatory ambiguity .
Some states , including California , Oregon , Virginia , Maryland , Massachusetts , New Jersey , New York , and Connecticut @ @ @ @ @ @ @ fireworks that are non-aerial and non-explosive .
Thus , if you live on the West Coast or in most of the Northeast Corridor , you probably associate fireworks that explode in the sky with professional fireworks .
The federal regulatory distinction that Heckman is pointing to is different , however : You can buy consumer-grade aerial fireworks in Nevada , New Hampshire , Pennsylvania , North Carolina , or other states and then drive them home to your less fun abode in Boston or LA or wherever else .
Long story short , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ reason you may be hearing more fireworks is because people are buying more fireworks — some of them likely transported across state lines in defiance of local rules .
But another factor is that things have become more audible .
It has seemed to me for months that the birds in my neighborhood have gotten louder .
But ornithologists say it ’ s the opposite and everything else has gotten quieter .
With fewer cars on the road , in particular , it ’ s just easier to hear the birds .
Quoctrung @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the New York Times , looking at microphone recordings , and confirmed that urban street noise has declined significantly as a result of the pandemic .
Consequently , fireworks ( which , again , people are buying more of ) are more noticeable with less background noise .
You can probably even hear fireworks from farther away than in the past .
Going out less also means you have more opportunity to notice sounds in your house , and everyone has more time to chat about real or perceived trends .
This all @ @ @ @ @ @ @ mundane explanation of what ’ s going on .
But the fact remains that many of these fireworks are likely illegal to use in the specific places where they are going off , which raises the question of why there isn ’ t much being done about them and whether there should be .
The country is , after all , in the grips of a nationwide series of protests complaining about , among other things , police treatment of people of color .
Under the circumstances , many people are likely to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ intervention when they see something illegal but not particularly harmful taking place .
Studies also indicate that it ’ s fairly common for police departments to reduce their effort level when they feel they are under political scrutiny .
And in this case , less zealousness about policing nonviolent mischief is arguably part of what people are asking for .
And while these fireworks are in many cases illegal , they don ’ t have to be — in much of the country , the regulatory climate is simply laxer .
While more @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to more injuries , the country is not exactly facing a plague of fireworks-related hazards at the moment .
The Consumer Product Safety Commission estimates that in 2019 there were fewer injuries attributable to fireworks ( about 10,000 ) than to fireplaces ( 16,000 ) , grilling ( 20,000 ) , air conditioners ( 15,000 ) , or fans ( 18,000 ) , to say nothing of dangers like home workshop saws ( 74,000 ) or non-saw power tools ( 30,000 ) .
In other words , the main practical issue with fireworks @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that they ’ re loud , which annoys some people and their pets .
In the future , perhaps cities will have some kind of unarmed agency that can address these kinds of nuisance concerns without raising the specter of heavy-handed police involvement with youthful mischief .
Alternatively , we could decide that fireworks are fun and the dogs are going to have to learn to deal with it .
Or else the fireworks fad itself may just burn bright and brief , as people decide they have better things to do with @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Every day at Vox , we aim to answer your most important questions and provide you , and our audience around the world , with information that has the power to save lives .
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America, or at least its urban precincts, is awash in small-scale and likely illegal nightly fireworks displays. Or at a minimum, it is awash in reports of such displays, with everyone from Oprah magazine to the New York Times weighing in on the increased firework activity.
New York City saw a massive increase in complaints about fireworks filed this June; Boston also has a large, verifiable increase in complaints. Most cities don’t make this data available, so it’s harder to assess exactly what’s going on. But I certainly felt like I heard more fireworks in DC this month than I have in my previous 16 years in my neighborhoods, and colleagues around the country feel the same way.
The apparent trend, paired with a lack of clear information and a growing climate of distrust in institutions, has sparked some fairly extreme theories, including a potential police department psyop.
It is unfortunately not possible at this point to deliver a completely unambiguous explanation. There do, however, appear to be a number of more everyday factors at work.
In particular, several downstream consequences of the coronavirus pandemic may be contributing to firework noise. One is that people are spending more time at home, with more opportunity to notice things. For similar reasons, cities are quieter in general, which makes noises more noticeable. Kids have been stuck at home for months unable to attend school or hang out with friends in normal ways, and fireworks are a fun way to pass the time. And just when there’s more potential interest in creating ad hoc city fireworks displays, there’s extra inventory due to the cancellation of many July Fourth fireworks shows. Last but by no means least, it’s certainly possible that enforcement of fireworks rules has gotten less vigorous — perhaps not so much as part of an elaborate plot as a natural consequence of police power being stretched thin.
For those of us who enjoy fireworks, it’s an unexpected summer treat that’s helping to break up the tedium of quarantine. But annoyed dog owners and light sleepers probably can’t do much but hope that whatever excess supply is present dries up soon after July 4.
The police psyop theory
Robert Jones Jr., a writer whose debut novel The Prophets is scheduled for release in January, has offered what’s probably the most detailed version of the conspiratorial account of the fireworks surge.
“My neighbors and I believe that this is part of a coordinated attack on Black and Brown communities by government forces,” he tweeted on June 20, “an attack meant to disorient and destabilize the #BlackLivesMatter movement.”
In his view, the fireworks are part of a two-pronged effort to promote sleep deprivation and desensitization to explosive noises in urban minority neighborhoods.
2. Desensitization as a means to get us so used to the sounds of firecrackers and other fireworks that when they start using their real artillery on us we won't know the difference. It's meant to sound like a war zone because a war zone is what it's about to become. — Son of Baldwin (Robert Jones, Jr.) (@SonofBaldwin) June 20, 2020
Jones further posited that “there is NO WAY IN THE WORLD that young Black and Brown people would otherwise have access to these PROFESSIONAL fireworks” and that the likely explanation is the fireworks are being deliberately provided to youngsters by government agents.
We think the government is providing these to neighborhood young people. These young people are unaware of how they're being used against their own communities and think they're simply being allowed to have the kind of fun that is generally considered illegal. — Son of Baldwin (Robert Jones, Jr.) (@SonofBaldwin) June 20, 2020
This theory seems a little extreme, but it received an apparent endorsement from New York Times Pulitzer Prize-winning star Nikole Hannah-Jones on Twitter; the tweet now appears to have been deleted.
The grain of truth here is that we do have clear reports of firefighters getting in on the fun, and anecdotes suggest some police officers are taking a relaxed attitude toward this version of hard-to-conceal illegal activity. The US government certainly has an extensive record of malign meddling with civil rights activists, not only as a historical matter but also in the form of very recent efforts to concoct a violent “black identity extremist” movement around Black Lives Matter activism. But before reaching for “coordinated attack” theories, it’s worth considering some more banal factors.
The fireworks industry is heavily geared toward July Fourth
Fireworks are awesome, and in principle, one could enjoy a delightful fireworks display any day of the year. In practice, however, the American Pyrotechnics Association reports that nearly 80 percent of display firework revenue is associated with July Fourth celebrations, which are widespread across the United States. This year, many of those celebrations have been canceled, and many other firework-intensive events like pro sports have also been impacted by the pandemic.
This creates the potential for diversion of fireworks from the professional display market to the consumer market, complete with the possibility of bargain-basement prices. Combine increased availability of fireworks with pandemic-induced boredom and you have the recipe for unusually lively summer nights.
My new theory on The Great Fireworks Mystery of 2020: the mass cancellation of Fourth of July celebrations has flooded the black market with professional grade fireworks normally inaccessible to most of us — Armand Domalewski (@ArmandDoma) June 22, 2020
The fireworks trade association, however, is pushing back on the diversion theory, arguing that the pro and consumer fireworks markets are more sharply segmented than that.
“Professionals use much more energetic fireworks not available to the general public without an ATF license for possession, use, and storage,” Julie Heckman, the executive director of the American Pyrotechnic Association, tells me. “Those devices are not permitted to be sold to the general public and should only be used by highly trained, licensed professionals.”
Consumer firework sales also typically peak in late June and early July for use on July 4, and Heckman says that this year, “there is definitely an increase in backyard consumer fireworks sales, starting earlier than in previous years.” Heckman publicly predicted a boom in consumer demand at a June 3 industry roundtable and simply sees that forecast coming to fruition. On this account, the connection to event cancellations is just that people miss fireworks, so they are buying more for themselves.
Of course, the fireworks trade association isn’t going to come out and say there’s illegal diversion of professional fireworks happening. But the perception that people are seeing “professional” fireworks in their neighborhood may be a question of regulatory ambiguity. Some states, including California, Oregon, Virginia, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York, and Connecticut, only allow the consumer sale of fireworks that are non-aerial and non-explosive. Thus, if you live on the West Coast or in most of the Northeast Corridor, you probably associate fireworks that explode in the sky with professional fireworks.
The federal regulatory distinction that Heckman is pointing to is different, however: You can buy consumer-grade aerial fireworks in Nevada, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, or other states and then drive them home to your less fun abode in Boston or LA or wherever else.
Long story short, to the best of our knowledge one reason you may be hearing more fireworks is because people are buying more fireworks — some of them likely transported across state lines in defiance of local rules. But another factor is that things have become more audible.
We’re all noticing things more
It has seemed to me for months that the birds in my neighborhood have gotten louder. But ornithologists say it’s the opposite and everything else has gotten quieter. With fewer cars on the road, in particular, it’s just easier to hear the birds.
Quoctrung Bui and Emily Badger quantified this for the New York Times, looking at microphone recordings, and confirmed that urban street noise has declined significantly as a result of the pandemic.
Consequently, fireworks (which, again, people are buying more of) are more noticeable with less background noise. You can probably even hear fireworks from farther away than in the past.
Going out less also means you have more opportunity to notice sounds in your house, and everyone has more time to chat about real or perceived trends.
This all adds up to a fairly compelling and mundane explanation of what’s going on. But the fact remains that many of these fireworks are likely illegal to use in the specific places where they are going off, which raises the question of why there isn’t much being done about them and whether there should be.
The country is, after all, in the grips of a nationwide series of protests complaining about, among other things, police treatment of people of color. Under the circumstances, many people are likely to be more hesitant to ask for police intervention when they see something illegal but not particularly harmful taking place. Studies also indicate that it’s fairly common for police departments to reduce their effort level when they feel they are under political scrutiny. And in this case, less zealousness about policing nonviolent mischief is arguably part of what people are asking for.
And while these fireworks are in many cases illegal, they don’t have to be — in much of the country, the regulatory climate is simply laxer. While more widespread legalization of fireworks would likely lead to more injuries, the country is not exactly facing a plague of fireworks-related hazards at the moment. The Consumer Product Safety Commission estimates that in 2019 there were fewer injuries attributable to fireworks (about 10,000) than to fireplaces (16,000), grilling (20,000), air conditioners (15,000), or fans (18,000), to say nothing of dangers like home workshop saws (74,000) or non-saw power tools (30,000).
In other words, the main practical issue with fireworks in built-up areas is less safety than that they’re loud, which annoys some people and their pets.
In the future, perhaps cities will have some kind of unarmed agency that can address these kinds of nuisance concerns without raising the specter of heavy-handed police involvement with youthful mischief. Alternatively, we could decide that fireworks are fun and the dogs are going to have to learn to deal with it. Or else the fireworks fad itself may just burn bright and brief, as people decide they have better things to do with their days than smuggle fireworks from Pennsylvania.