vox--2020-04-01--The 2020 election calendar

The 2020 election calendar

Share All sharing options for : The 2020 election calendar The Democratic presidential primary has been going on for months .
But 2020 — the election year — is here , and it ’ s an understatement to say that it will be a busy year in US politics .
March began with Super Tuesday on March 3 : the biggest delegate prize of the primary calendar .
As the year continues , the primary calendar is scheduled to run through June , followed by the Democratic and Republican conventions ( in July and August , respectively ) , and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
However , concerns about the Covid-19 coronavirus have led some states to move their primaries later in the calendar .
That ’ s where this calendar comes in .
Here are the most important events of the 2020 election cycle .
Bookmark this page to refer back to , add it to your Google Calendar by clicking the plus sign on the bottom right of this page , or subscribe through a calendar app of your choice .
This page and the calendar subscriptions will be updated as dates change .
• @ @ @ @ @ @ @ be available no later than 11:59 pm on April 11 ) • Hawaii primary ( D ; results will be available “ late May , ” according to interim Hawaii Democratic Party Chair Kate Stanley ) Read all of our coverage from the June debates here .
Read all of our coverage from the July debates here .
Read all of our coverage of the September debate here .
• Second town hall on climate change on MSNBC Read all of our coverage from the October debate here .
Read all of our @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Read all of our coverage from the December debate here .
Read all of our coverage from the Iowa caucuses here .
Read all of our coverage from the New Hampshire primaries here .
Read all of our coverage from the South Carolina primary here .
Read all of our coverage from Super Tuesday here .
Read all of our coverage from the March 10 primaries here .
Read all of our coverage from the March 17 primaries here .

Share All sharing options for: The 2020 election calendar
Vox answers your biggest questions about the 2020 US presidential election .
This story is part of a group of stories called
The 2020 presidential election is ramping into high gear.
Joe Biden announced his running mate, California Sen. Kamala Harris, and Democrats and Republicans held their first virtual conventions this summer. Biden and President Donald Trump accepted their parties’ official nominations for president, and the fall campaign season is upon us.
The presidential debates began September 29 and run through October, including the vice presidential debate on October 7. The second presidential debate, scheduled for October 15, was canceled after Trump tested positive for Covid-19, then refused to agree to debate virtually. One more debate is scheduled for October 22.
Election Day itself, of course, will fall on Tuesday, November 3.
Read on for the important events of the 2020 election cycle and bookmark this page to refer back to. You can also add it to your Google Calendar by clicking the plus sign on the bottom right of this page, or subscribe through a calendar app of your choice. This page and the calendar subscriptions will be updated as dates and information change.
And check out our guides on how to vote early and by mail.
September 2020
September 29
Presidential debate in Cleveland, Ohio, at the Case Western Reserve/Cleveland Clinic joint campus
October 2020
October 7
Vice presidential debate in Salt Lake City at the University of Utah
October 22
Presidential debate in Nashville, Tennessee, at Belmont University
November 2020
November 3
Election Day
Past 2020 election coverage
June 2019
June 26-27
Read all of our coverage from the June debates here.
July 2019
July 30-31
Read all of our coverage from the July debates here.
September 2019
September 4
September 12
Read all of our coverage of the September debate here.
September 19-20
October 2019
October 15
Read all of our coverage from the October debate here.
November 2019
November 20
Read all of our coverage from the November debate here.
December 2019
December 19
Read all of our coverage from the December debate here.
January 2020
January 14
February 2020
February 3
Iowa caucuses
Read all of our coverage from the Iowa caucuses here.
February 7
February 11
New Hampshire primaries
Read all of our coverage from the New Hampshire primaries here.
February 19
February 22
Nevada caucuses
February 25
February 29
South Carolina primary
Read all of our coverage from the South Carolina primary here.
March 2020
March 3 (Super Tuesday)
Alabama primaries (D, R)
American Samoa caucuses (D)
Arkansas primaries (D, R)
California primaries (D, R)
Colorado primaries (D, R)
Maine primaries (D, R)
Massachusetts primaries (D, R)
Minnesota primaries (D, R)
North Carolina primaries (D, R)
Oklahoma primaries (D, R)
Tennessee primaries (D, R)
Texas primaries (D, R)
Utah primaries (D, R)
Vermont primaries (D, R)
Virginia primary (D)
Democrats Abroad primary (through March 10)
Read all of our coverage from Super Tuesday here.
March 10
Idaho primaries (D, R)
Michigan primaries (D, R)
Mississippi primaries (D, R)
Missouri primaries (D, R)
North Dakota caucuses (D)
Washington primaries (D, R)
Read all of our coverage from the March 10 primaries here.
March 12
Virgin Islands caucuses
March 14
Guam caucuses (R)
Northern Marianas convention (D)
March 15
March 17
Arizona primary (D)
Florida primaries (D, R)
Illinois primaries (D, R)
Northern Marianas convention (R)
Read all of our coverage from the March 17 primaries here.
March 24
American Samoa caucuses (R)
April 2020
April 7
Wisconsin primaries (D, R; April 7 is the election date and mail-in vote postmark deadline following court rulings, as of 8 pm ET on April 6)
April 10
Alaska primary (D; vote-by-mail only; results will be available no later than 11:59 pm on April 11)
April 17
Wyoming caucuses (D; vote-by-mail only)
April 28
Ohio primaries (D, R; vote-by-mail only)
May 2020
May 2
Kansas primary (D)
Guam caucuses (D)
May 7-9
Wyoming state convention (R)
May 12
Nebraska primaries (D, R)
May 19
Oregon primaries (D, R)
June 2020
June 2
Delaware primaries (D, R)
District of Columbia primaries (D, R)
Indiana primaries (D, R)
Maryland primaries (D, R)
Montana primaries (D, R)
New Mexico primaries (D, R)
Pennsylvania primaries (D, R)
Rhode Island primaries (D, R)
South Dakota primaries (D, R)
June 6
Virgin Islands caucuses (D)
June 7
Puerto Rico primary (R)
June 9
Georgia primaries (D, R)
West Virginia primaries (D, R)
June 23
Kentucky primaries (D, R)
New York primaries (D, R)
July 2020
July 7
New Jersey primaries (D, R)
July 11
Louisiana primaries (D, R)
August 2020
August 11
Connecticut primaries (D, R)
August 17-20
Democratic National Convention in Milwaukee, Wisconsin
Read our coverage of the Democratic convention here.
August 24-27
Republican National Convention in Charlotte, North Carolina
Read our coverage of the Republican convention here.


vox--2020-04-01--Sen. Kelly Loeffler sold at least $18 million more in stocks before the coronavirus crash than previ

Sen. Kelly Loeffler sold at least $18 million more in stocks before the coronavirus crash than previously reported

Sen. Kelly Loeffler ( R-GA ) benefited from stock trades worth millions of dollars shortly before the general public was alerted to the severity of the Covid-19 crisis , selling off shares in industries that have been adversely affected by the coronavirus pandemic and buying shares of companies that have benefited , according to an Atlanta Journal-Constitution ( AJC ) report published late Tuesday .
Loeffler , who sits on the Senate Health Committee , first began selling stocks on January 24 — the same day that committee held a private all-members session on Covid-19 — and continued making trades @ @ @ @ @ @ @ According to her latest financial disclosure , which the senator provided to the AJC , her largest transaction involved the sale of $ 18.7 million in Intercontinental Exchange stock in three separate deals dated February 26 and March 11 .
Intercontinental Exchange operates global exchanges for several financial and commodity markets — and since Loeffler made her first sale , its stock has fallen by 16 percent .
When challenged over the trades following prior reporting by the Daily Beast , Loeffler said the transactions were handled by third-party advisers , given that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ husband , Jeffrey Sprecher , is chair of the New York Stock Exchange and chair and CEO of its holding company , Intercontinental Exchange .
Additionally , a spokesperson for the senator told the AJC that the sell-offs were pre-planned in order to pay taxes , cover transaction costs , and produce “ liquidity.
” Raising questions , however , is the fact that beyond Intercontinental Exchange , the couple also sold stock from other companies ultimately affected by the coronavirus , including a combined $ 155,000 or so from retailers Ross Stores @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for T.J. Maxx and Marshalls ) , and upscale athletic-apparel company Lululemon over the same period of time .
And as Loeffler and Sprecher made those sales , a number of stocks added to their portfolio have seen gains as the Covid-19 crisis deepens .
For instance , the couple obtained $ 206,777 in shares of chemical giant Dupont , which produces critical protective gear to combat transmission of the virus , in four separate transactions in late February and early March .
They also acquired shares in telecommuting company Citrix on January @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the Senate Health Committee held a private meeting about the coronavirus .
Four days after the briefing ( and her acquisition of Citrix stocks ) , Loeffler accused Democrats of misleading the American public about the Trump administration ’ s response to the outbreak for political gain .
On March 19 , Loeffler responded to the allegations in a statement on Twitter .
“ As confirmed in the periodic transaction report to Senate Ethics , I was informed of these purchases and sales on February 16 , 2020—three weeks after they were made @ @ @ @ @ @ @ have garnered attention due to both their timing and Loeffler ’ s public assurances that the Trump administration had the coronavirus situation well in hand .
But Loeffler isn ’ t the only lawmaker to have faced questions over recent stock trading .
Lawmakers are barred from insider trading , but it ’ s difficult to prove Government officials and lawmakers are often privy to key information — which could potentially be used to profit in the stock market — that isn ’ t available to the public .
In mid-January , former @ @ @ @ @ @ @ convicted of using his position to engage in insider trading and was sentenced to 26 months in prison .
After learning that a drug made by an Australian biotech firm had failed in clinical trials , Collins warned his son in a phone call he made from the White House — after which his son , his son ’ s fiancée , her parents , and others sold their stock in the company ahead of the test results being made public , according to CNBC .
Many other lawmakers , including former Georgia @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Tom Price , have been accused of insider trading but never convicted .
Insider trading is often difficult to prove , since evidence is often circumstantial , and prosecutors must show that traders knowingly used inside information .
Members of Congress are barred from engaging in insider trading under the STOCK Act , as explained by Vox ’ s Ella Nilsen : The bipartisan act was signed into law by President Barack Obama in 2012 , after it became clear some members of Congress were using the classified information they were getting in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ was one of just three senators at the time to vote against it .
“ Any insider trading investigation involving the Stock Act will likely focus on did the member of Congress obtain ‘ material ’ ‘ non-public ’ information during the course of his or her official duties , did the member place the trades or cause the trades to be placed , or , alternatively , were the trades done through a blind trust with zero involvement by the member , ” [ Robert Long , a former senior attorney at @ @ @ @ @ @ @ told Vox .
Initially , the Stock Act had two major provisions .
In addition to banning insider trading , it also beefed up transparency rules designed to require financial disclosures be posted online in searchable databases .
But just as the Stock Act was signed into law with lots of pomp and circumstance in April 2012 , it was quietly defanged — with the searchable financial disclosures stripped out — about a year later .
Members of Congress quietly passed that bill by unanimous consent , and Obama signed it into law @ @ @ @ @ @ @ lawmakers , including Sens .
Richard Burr ( R-NC ) , Jim Inhofe ( R-OK ) , and Dianne Feinstein ( D-CA ) , have been accused of engaging in potentially suspicious trading activity related to the pandemic , though all have denied doing so .
Burr himself asked for a Senate Ethics Committee investigation into his own trading activity .
The Department of Justice , in conjunction with the Securities and Exchange Commission , has begun an investigation into lawmakers who may have tried to profit off inside information about the pandemic @ @ @ @ @ @ @ which members of Congress are or have been under investigation .
It ’ s possible that the trades were innocuous , but people ’ s nerves are frayed from dealing with the coronavirus pandemic itself as well as the resulting economic crash .
The investigations will take time , and again , insider trading is difficult to prove .
But even if all the lawmakers facing questions are cleared of wrongdoing , the situation may give additional weight to reforms being pushed by some of their colleagues .
For instance , Sen. Elizabeth @ @ @ @ @ @ @ legislation in 2018 that would have banned lawmakers from owning individual stocks altogether .
And the HR 1 legislation that passed the House last year but has stalled in the Senate would tighten rules around lawmaker conflicts of interest , though it doesn ’ t specifically mention insider trading .

Sen. Kelly Loeffler (R-GA) benefited from stock trades worth millions of dollars shortly before the general public was alerted to the severity of the Covid-19 crisis, selling off shares in industries that have been adversely affected by the coronavirus pandemic and buying shares of companies that have benefited, according to an Atlanta Journal-Constitution (AJC) report published late Tuesday.
Loeffler, who sits on the Senate Health Committee, first began selling stocks on January 24 — the same day that committee held a private all-members session on Covid-19 — and continued making trades in late February and early March.
According to her latest financial disclosure, which the senator provided to the AJC, her largest transaction involved the sale of $18.7 million in Intercontinental Exchange stock in three separate deals dated February 26 and March 11. Intercontinental Exchange operates global exchanges for several financial and commodity markets — and since Loeffler made her first sale, its stock has fallen by 16 percent.
“Senator Loeffler filed another Periodic Transaction Report (PTR) and the facts are still the same,” a spokesperson for the senator told Vox in a statement. “These transactions are consistent with historical portfolio activity and include a balanced mix of buys and sells. Her stock portfolio is managed independently by third-party advisors and she is notified, as indicated on the report, after transactions occur.”
When challenged over the trades following prior reporting by the Daily Beast, Loeffler said the transactions were handled by third-party advisers, given that she is an elected official and her husband, Jeffrey Sprecher, is chair of the New York Stock Exchange and chair and CEO of its holding company, Intercontinental Exchange.
Additionally, a spokesperson for the senator told the AJC that the sell-offs were pre-planned as part of Sprecher’s compensation package and were made in order to pay taxes, cover transaction costs, and produce “liquidity.”
Raising questions, however, is the fact that beyond Intercontinental Exchange, the couple also sold stock from other companies ultimately affected by the coronavirus, including a combined $155,000 or so from retailers Ross Stores, TJX Cos. (the parent corporation for T.J. Maxx and Marshalls), and upscale athletic-apparel company Lululemon over the same period of time.
And as Loeffler and Sprecher made those sales, a number of stocks added to their portfolio have seen gains as the Covid-19 crisis deepens. For instance, the couple obtained $206,777 in shares of chemical giant Dupont, which produces critical protective gear to combat transmission of the virus, in four separate transactions in late February and early March. They also acquired shares in telecommuting company Citrix on January 24 — again, the same day the Senate Health Committee held a private meeting about the coronavirus.
Four days after the briefing (and her acquisition of Citrix stocks), Loeffler accused Democrats of misleading the American public about the Trump administration’s response to the outbreak for political gain.
Democrats have dangerously and intentionally misled the American people on #Coronavirus readiness.
Here’s the truth: @realDonaldTrump & his administration are doing a great job working to keep Americans healthy & safe. https://t.co/DaDX5wpeUj — Kelly Loeffler (@KLoeffler) February 28, 2020
On March 19, Loeffler responded to the allegations in a statement on Twitter. “As confirmed in the periodic transaction report to Senate Ethics, I was informed of these purchases and sales on February 16, 2020—three weeks after they were made,” she said.
The trades have garnered attention due to both their timing and Loeffler’s public assurances that the Trump administration had the coronavirus situation well in hand. But Loeffler isn’t the only lawmaker to have faced questions over recent stock trading.
Lawmakers are barred from insider trading, but it’s difficult to prove
Government officials and lawmakers are often privy to key information — which could potentially be used to profit in the stock market — that isn’t available to the public. In mid-January, former Rep. Chris Collins (R-NY) was convicted of using his position to engage in insider trading and was sentenced to 26 months in prison.
After learning that a drug made by an Australian biotech firm had failed in clinical trials, Collins warned his son in a phone call he made from the White House — after which his son, his son’s fiancée, her parents, and others sold their stock in the company ahead of the test results being made public, according to CNBC.
Many other lawmakers, including former Georgia representative and Health and Human Services Secretary Tom Price, have been accused of insider trading but never convicted. Insider trading is often difficult to prove, since evidence is often circumstantial, and prosecutors must show that traders knowingly used inside information.
Members of Congress are barred from engaging in insider trading under the STOCK Act, as explained by Vox’s Ella Nilsen:
The bipartisan act was signed into law by President Barack Obama in 2012, after it became clear some members of Congress were using the classified information they were getting in briefings to get personally wealthy. Burr was one of just three senators at the time to vote against it. “Any insider trading investigation involving the Stock Act will likely focus on did the member of Congress obtain ‘material’ ‘non-public’ information during the course of his or her official duties, did the member place the trades or cause the trades to be placed, or, alternatively, were the trades done through a blind trust with zero involvement by the member,” [Robert Long, a former senior attorney at the US Securities and Exchange Commission] told Vox. ... Initially, the Stock Act had two major provisions. In addition to banning insider trading, it also beefed up transparency rules designed to require financial disclosures be posted online in searchable databases. But just as the Stock Act was signed into law with lots of pomp and circumstance in April 2012, it was quietly defanged — with the searchable financial disclosures stripped out — about a year later. Members of Congress quietly passed that bill by unanimous consent, and Obama signed it into law.
Along with Loeffler, several other lawmakers, including Sens. Richard Burr (R-NC), Jim Inhofe (R-OK), and Dianne Feinstein (D-CA), have been accused of engaging in potentially suspicious trading activity related to the pandemic, though all have denied doing so. Burr himself asked for a Senate Ethics Committee investigation into his own trading activity.
The Department of Justice, in conjunction with the Securities and Exchange Commission, has begun an investigation into lawmakers who may have tried to profit off inside information about the pandemic. The DOJ has yet to specify which members of Congress are or have been under investigation.
It’s possible that the trades were innocuous, but people’s nerves are frayed from dealing with the coronavirus pandemic itself as well as the resulting economic crash. The investigations will take time, and again, insider trading is difficult to prove. But even if all the lawmakers facing questions are cleared of wrongdoing, the situation may give additional weight to reforms being pushed by some of their colleagues.
For instance, Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) introduced wide-ranging anti-corruption legislation in 2018 that would have banned lawmakers from owning individual stocks altogether. And the HR 1 legislation that passed the House last year but has stalled in the Senate would tighten rules around lawmaker conflicts of interest, though it doesn’t specifically mention insider trading.
Update, April 2: This story was updated with a statement from Sen. Kelly Loeffler’s spokesperson and a clarification of the compensation of her husband, Jeffrey Sprecher, with Intercontinental Exchange.


vox--2020-04-01--Federal prisons are fighting coronavirus with home release and a quarantine, but that may not be eno

Federal prisons are fighting coronavirus with home release and a quarantine, but that may not be enough

The Bureau of Prisons ( BOP ) announced late Wednesday that , due to Covid-19 concerns , all of those incarcerated in federal facilities will be under quarantine for the next 14 days .
The guidelines come as a growing number of incarcerated people and prison employees have begun testing positive for and displaying symptoms indicative of the novel coronavirus , and represent the BOP ’ s latest effort to reduce the rate of transmission in federal facilities .
But while the new guidance is certainly better than taking no action , critics of the policy argue there are better @ @ @ @ @ @ @ namely , improved sanitation and commuting sentences to reduce the number of people in prison .
While all 146,000 federally incarcerated people will be confined to their cells for two weeks , the BOP said they will be allowed into communal areas on a limited — and , as much as is possible , socially distant — basis to eat , do laundry , bathe , access the internet , and use the phone .
Incarcerated people will also still have normal access to educational and mental health services .
New prison arrivals @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Federal prisons have already begun to see confirmed Covid-19 cases .
The first was announced on March 21 — since then , an additional 28 incarcerated people have tested positive for the virus , and 30 federal prison employees have confirmed cases .
As is the case with the population at large , it isn ’ t clear how many cases there actually are .
And this fact , coupled with the fact that conditions in prisons are generally crowded and access to the sanitation measures public health officials have advocated for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ vulnerable to the coronavirus .
William Brewer Jr. , the father of a man serving a sentence in a facility in Virginia , told the New York Times he is particularly concerned about hand-washing at his son ’ s facility .
“ Even as a visitor , ” Brewer said , “ If you want to wash your hands , you ’ ve got to walk out and go into another building to do it.
” A representative for the union that represents federal prison employees told Reuters his members were frustrated the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ prison guards .
These conditions have critics of the bureau ’ s new policy arguing that it does not go far enough : that being confined to cells will help limit exposure somewhat , but that it does not solve the underlying issues of guards being potential sources of community spread , nor does it address sanitation concerns .
“ Keeping people in their cells for 14 days straight is NOT the same thing those of us elsewhere are going through , ” Chris Geidner of the Justice Collaborative tweeted Wednesday .
“ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ soap and hygienic bathrooms in separate rooms from where we eat , for starters.
” The Department of Justice is working to reduce exposure risk in prisons — but critics argue the plans will have limited effect In response to criticism like Geidner ’ s , Justice Department officials have said they plan to begin releasing elderly and ill prisoners .
“ There are particular concerns in this institutional setting .
We want to make sure that our institutions don ’ t become Petri dishes and it spreads rapidly through a particular institution @ @ @ @ @ @ @ said Thursday .
“ We have the protocols that are designed to stop that and we are using all the tools we have to protect the inmates.
” In a memo to the BOP , Barr directed bureau officials to identify “ at-risk inmates who are non-violent and pose minimal likelihood of recidivism and who might be safer serving their sentences in home confinement.
” Like the BOP ’ s new policy , however , Barr ’ s plan has also been sharply critiqued by criminal justice advocates , like those at the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ part of the federal prison population will be excluded from consideration for home release because the plan bars anyone convicted of a violent crime from participating in the program — and because the system the BOP will use to adjudicate risk ( an algorithm called Pattern ) is heavily biased toward white people , according to a DOJ review .
While the majority of the federal prison population — 58.6 percent — was white , as of March 2020 , an even larger share , 83.3 percent , was incarcerated for crimes that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ including drug charges , sexual offenses , and other violent crimes .
And advocates note that most of those convicted for these crimes are people of color , as are those convicted of immigration crimes , a group that makes up 5.9 percent of the federal prison population and one also ineligible for home release .
Essentially , they argue , just a small number of white-collar criminals — a group mostly composed of white incarcerated people — will be released .
It simultaneously is revealing of larger inequalities in the justice system @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are unlikely to be reduced in any meaningful way by Barr ’ s order .
Also at issue is the fact that the DOJ and BOP do not have jurisdiction over the state prisons at which the vast majority of the United States ’ 2.3 million incarcerated people are housed .
Cities and states have largely been left to their own devices in determining how to adjust their prison policies in reaction to the coronavirus crisis , and have not rolled out plans at a uniform pace .
Some state and local officials @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s .
New York City has responded to a growing spate of Covid-19 cases in its jail system by releasing 900 incarcerated people so far — all accused of nonviolent crimes .
At least 132 people imprisoned in the city ’ s jails and 104 jail employees have tested positive for the virus — a number New York ’ s incarcerated people have said they fear could grow , even with the city ’ s efforts to stop the spread .
Other places are still weighing early release plans .
For instance , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , North Carolina and Georgia are investigating early release proposals , and have instituted plans to reduce exposure risk , with North Carolina instituting a quarantine similar to the BOP ’ s .
These state quarantines have the same issues as the BOP ’ s and , similarly , early release plans aren ’ t guaranteed to reduce population numbers enough to ensure incarcerated people and prison staff are able to socially distance in the manner recommended by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention ( CDC ) .
So while they — @ @ @ @ @ @ @ certainly help a number of the incarcerated limit their exposure risk , it isn ’ t clear they address the overarching issue of reducing the prison population in a broadly effective way .
Barr has argued “ many inmates will be safer in BOP facilities where the population is controlled and there is ready access to doctors and medical care , ” but not all incarcerated people agree .
Steven Jones , who is serving a sentence at a federal prison in Colorado , told Reuters , “ If the virus gets in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ it to , we are doomed .
”

The Bureau of Prisons (BOP) announced late Wednesday that, due to Covid-19 concerns, all of those incarcerated in federal facilities will be under quarantine for the next 14 days.
The guidelines come as a growing number of incarcerated people and prison employees have begun testing positive for and displaying symptoms indicative of the novel coronavirus, and represent the BOP’s latest effort to reduce the rate of transmission in federal facilities.
But while the new guidance is certainly better than taking no action, critics of the policy argue there are better ways to curb prison-based coronavirus cases: namely, improved sanitation and commuting sentences to reduce the number of people in prison.
While all 146,000 federally incarcerated people will be confined to their cells for two weeks, the BOP said they will be allowed into communal areas on a limited — and, as much as is possible, socially distant — basis to eat, do laundry, bathe, access the internet, and use the phone. Incarcerated people will also still have normal access to educational and mental health services. New prison arrivals will be reduced during the quarantine period.
Federal prisons have already begun to see confirmed Covid-19 cases. The first was announced on March 21 — since then, an additional 28 incarcerated people have tested positive for the virus, and 30 federal prison employees have confirmed cases.
As is the case with the population at large, it isn’t clear how many cases there actually are. And this fact, coupled with the fact that conditions in prisons are generally crowded and access to the sanitation measures public health officials have advocated for is nonexistent, makes prison populations particularly vulnerable to the coronavirus.
William Brewer Jr., the father of a man serving a sentence in a facility in Virginia, told the New York Times he is particularly concerned about hand-washing at his son’s facility.
“Even as a visitor,” Brewer said, “If you want to wash your hands, you’ve got to walk out and go into another building to do it.”
A representative for the union that represents federal prison employees told Reuters his members were frustrated the BOP has denied requests for masks for prison guards.
These conditions have critics of the bureau’s new policy arguing that it does not go far enough: that being confined to cells will help limit exposure somewhat, but that it does not solve the underlying issues of guards being potential sources of community spread, nor does it address sanitation concerns.
“Keeping people in their cells for 14 days straight is NOT the same thing those of us elsewhere are going through,” Chris Geidner of the Justice Collaborative tweeted Wednesday. “Most of us have a supply of soap and hygienic bathrooms in separate rooms from where we eat, for starters.”
How incredibly short-sighted, contrary to the advice of any experts, and inhumane. https://t.co/diGQCPa9bv — Chris Geidner (@chrisgeidner) April 1, 2020
The Department of Justice is working to reduce exposure risk in prisons — but critics argue the plans will have limited effect
In response to criticism like Geidner’s, Justice Department officials have said they plan to begin releasing elderly and ill prisoners.
“There are particular concerns in this institutional setting. We want to make sure that our institutions don’t become Petri dishes and it spreads rapidly through a particular institution,” US Attorney General William Barr said Thursday. “We have the protocols that are designed to stop that and we are using all the tools we have to protect the inmates.”
In a memo to the BOP, Barr directed bureau officials to identify “at-risk inmates who are non-violent and pose minimal likelihood of recidivism and who might be safer serving their sentences in home confinement.”
Like the BOP’s new policy, however, Barr’s plan has also been sharply critiqued by criminal justice advocates, like those at the Marshall Project. They argue a large part of the federal prison population will be excluded from consideration for home release because the plan bars anyone convicted of a violent crime from participating in the program — and because the system the BOP will use to adjudicate risk (an algorithm called Pattern) is heavily biased toward white people, according to a DOJ review.
While the majority of the federal prison population — 58.6 percent — was white, as of March 2020, an even larger share, 83.3 percent, was incarcerated for crimes that make them ineligible for home release, including drug charges, sexual offenses, and other violent crimes. And advocates note that most of those convicted for these crimes are people of color, as are those convicted of immigration crimes, a group that makes up 5.9 percent of the federal prison population and one also ineligible for home release.
Essentially, they argue, just a small number of white-collar criminals — a group mostly composed of white incarcerated people — will be released. It simultaneously is revealing of larger inequalities in the justice system and means the populations of federal prisoners are unlikely to be reduced in any meaningful way by Barr’s order.
Also at issue is the fact that the DOJ and BOP do not have jurisdiction over the state prisons at which the vast majority of the United States’ 2.3 million incarcerated people are housed. Cities and states have largely been left to their own devices in determining how to adjust their prison policies in reaction to the coronavirus crisis, and have not rolled out plans at a uniform pace.
Some state and local officials have instituted policies similar to Barr’s. New York City has responded to a growing spate of Covid-19 cases in its jail system by releasing 900 incarcerated people so far — all accused of nonviolent crimes. At least 132 people imprisoned in the city’s jails and 104 jail employees have tested positive for the virus — a number New York’s incarcerated people have said they fear could grow, even with the city’s efforts to stop the spread.
Other places are still weighing early release plans. For instance, following positive cases in their prison systems, North Carolina and Georgia are investigating early release proposals, and have instituted plans to reduce exposure risk, with North Carolina instituting a quarantine similar to the BOP’s.
These state quarantines have the same issues as the BOP’s and, similarly, early release plans aren’t guaranteed to reduce population numbers enough to ensure incarcerated people and prison staff are able to socially distance in the manner recommended by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).
So while they — and the new federal policies — will certainly help a number of the incarcerated limit their exposure risk, it isn’t clear they address the overarching issue of reducing the prison population in a broadly effective way. Barr has argued “many inmates will be safer in BOP facilities where the population is controlled and there is ready access to doctors and medical care,” but not all incarcerated people agree.
Steven Jones, who is serving a sentence at a federal prison in Colorado, told Reuters, “If the virus gets in here, and we are all expecting it to, we are doomed.”


vox--2020-04-02--11 questions about the coronavirus economic crisis, answered

Evidence-based explanations of the coronavirus crisis , from how it started to how it might end to how to protect yourself and others .
The American economy seems to have transformed in a matter of weeks as the coronavirus has brought activities across the country to a grinding halt .
Not only did the US fail to anticipate the public health crisis caused by coronavirus , but it appears to be unprepared for the economic consequences of getting the pandemic under control .
Most Americans already know they are in a very different economic reality than they were in February @ @ @ @ @ @ @ takeout or delivery .
Clothing boutiques are shuttering .
Americans across the economy have lost their jobs .
Even workers whose jobs might be more stable probably don ’ t want to look at their 401 ( k ) s. Government officials have made a conscious decision to lock down parts of the economy and implement strict social distancing guidelines to try to better respond to the pandemic .
President Donald Trump initially said he ’ d like to reopen the economy by Easter to avoid further damage — perhaps thinking it ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ going and let the chips fall where they may — but people aren ’ t going to be falling over themselves to go to restaurants if there ’ s a deadly virus spreading .
Trump ultimately backed off , and extended social distancing measures to the end of April .
After all , the point of the economy is to serve people , not for people to serve it .
“ There seems to be a segment of society that ’ s lost track of the purpose of markets , ” said Aaron @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Center on Regulation and Markets at the Brookings Institution .
“ Humanity created markets to efficiently distribute goods and services to serve humanity ; markets did not create humanity to efficiently serve the will of the markets.
” We ’ re stuck in dual crises for the foreseeable future — one that ’ s health-related , and one that ’ s economic .
Eventually this will end , but there ’ s no telling when .
It ’ s a confusing time , including when it comes to the money-related end of things @ @ @ @ @ @ @ questions about the economic crisis that you were perhaps too embarrassed — or too afraid — to ask .
1 ) What is an economic crisis ?
An economic crisis is a steep and sudden downturn of the economy .
In terms of data , it shows up in a lot of places — GDP growth , unemployment numbers , productivity , and more .
Data often lags behind real-time events , but what we already know paints a dire picture : an enormous spike in jobless claims and an economic contraction projection @ @ @ @ @ @ @ definitely in an economic crisis right now , albeit a distinct one from crises past , including the one in most recent memory : the financial crisis and Great Recession in the late 2000s .
“ The prior recession started in the financial markets and affected the real economy ; this will start in the real economy and affect the financial markets , ” said Klein .
The problem right now isn ’ t subprime mortgages and banks and hedge funds making bets they shouldn ’ t — it ’ s that the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ health crisis and is taking extreme economic measures in an effort to protect the public ’ s well-being .
Public officials have ordered shut wide swaths of the economy , including restaurants , travel , and hospitality , and it ’ s had a severe and immediate effect .
Jobless claims hit 3.3 million during a single week in March ; during the Great Recession , the highest week of losses was about 600,000 , and 8.7 million total jobs were lost over the course of many months .
Factories across the country @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , and not only do people have less money to spend , but they have fewer ways to spend it .
“ Everything this time is happening bigger and faster , ” Jason Furman , who served as an economic adviser to President Barack Obama , told Vox ’ s Li Zhou and Ella Nilsen recently in a piece laying out the differences between the 2008 crash and now .
The question now is if and when the US is able to get the virus under control so that the economy can start @ @ @ @ @ @ @ we need is for everybody to stay home and not go broke doing it , ” said Cecilia Rouse , an economist at Princeton and former member of Obama ’ s Council of Economic Advisers .
“ The faster we can get this pandemic under control , the faster we can snap back.
” The longer the crisis goes on , the more challenging the recovery becomes , and the longer it will take .
2 ) What ’ s the difference between a recession and a depression ?
There ’ s a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is when your neighbor loses their job , but a depression is when you lose yours , which perhaps gets at the air of difference between the two : A recession feels bad , a depression feels very bad .
But the line between recession and depression can be a little fuzzy .
Traditionally , a recession is defined as two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth , but the National Bureau of Economic Research ( NBER ) has a broader definition of a “ significant decline in economic activity spread across the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a few months and shows up in places like GDP , income , employment , production , and retail sales .
In the US , a group within the NBER is officially charged with “ calling ” when a recession starts and ends — and it usually takes them some time after a recession begins for them to say it ’ s happening .
A depression , on the other hand , is a more severe and prolonged version of a recession .
The Great Depression that lasted from 1929 to the early @ @ @ @ @ @ @ economic downturns — one from 1929 to 1933 , and another from 1937 to 1938 .
Output fell sharply .
The coronavirus recession could indeed become a depression .
The US is in uncharted territory in what ’ s going on in the economy — Americans have stopped working , stopped producing , and stopped consuming almost at the drop of a hat .
The stock market is volatile , and business investment is slowing .
Much of the country has been ground to a halt .
Whether or not the US slips @ @ @ @ @ @ @ how well Americans are able to weather the storm while the coronavirus portion of the crisis gets figured out .
Officials don ’ t want the economy to become so broken that it can ’ t be fixed .
“ Ultimately , the economy will rebound when the pandemic is under control .
The question is , how many businesses will be able to weather the storm , and how many workers will be able to ?
” Klein said .
“ The longer the shutdown goes on , the greater effects on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ t reopen.
” It ’ s also important to note that , whatever you call it , not everyone will experience the economic fallout in the same ways .
For some people , it will be catastrophic .
For others , it will be an inconvenience .
Older , low-income , and homeless people and those in other vulnerable communities will also likely experience the economic crisis in more harmful ways , regardless of how the downturn is defined formally .
3 ) What does the stock market have to do with @ @ @ @ @ @ @ has been all over the place amid the coronavirus crisis .
Major indexes plunged as the gravity of the situation began to take hold in February and March , and stocks have become pretty volatile .
But does it matter what the stock market does ?
Well , yes and no .
The stock market right now is signifying underlying turmoil in the economy .
It can also be a leading indicator , albeit a noisy one , of where the economy might be headed , and amid coronavirus , its take appears @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
As stocks plunged at the takeoff of the crisis in the US , a lot of investors appear to have pulled out their money and parked it in cash , and uncertainty has created an enormous amount of volatility .
The stock market will likely start to recover before the economy does — that ’ s what happened after the financial crisis , when it turned up in March 2009 and the recession ended three months later in June — but we won ’ t know if or when that will be @ @ @ @ @ @ @ can have a “ wealth effect ” as well that is largely behavioral — consumers spend more in a bull market .
A small majority of Americans own stocks , but the richest Americans own most of the stocks .
But the average person shouldn ’ t focus too much on what ’ s going on in the markets , especially in the short term .
There ’ s a saying from legendary investor Benjamin Graham that the market is a voting machine in the short run but a weighing machine in the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ particular price might be up or down on a given day , but ultimately , the underlying fundamentals of a business are what matters .
“ What we know about anything that is bought and sold is that price is dictated by price and demand .
What helps determine stock prices over the long run , of course , is earnings , it ’ s fundamentals , but in the short run , panic can create very significant mispricing , ” said Kristina Hooper , chief global market strategist at Invesco .
There @ @ @ @ @ @ @ US could halt stock market trading altogether , beyond the temporary “ circuit breaker ” stops that are triggered when stocks drop too much .
Greg Daco , an economist at Oxford Economics , told me that theoretically it could — after all , there are stock market holidays — but that wouldn ’ t necessarily solve the volatility problem .
“ The question is , what happens when it reopens ?
” he said .
“ You close the market , reopen it , and it falls by 30 percent , was @ @ @ @ @ @ @ If I have investments , like a 401 ( k ) , what should I be doing ?
The best advice right now on what to do on your investments , per finance experts , might also be the hardest to follow : Do nothing .
“ Most people are horrible at making long-term investment decisions generally , and that ’ s exacerbated when they try to make decisions under emotionally intense circumstances , ” said Zach Teutsch , a financial adviser at Values Added Financial .
While it may be tempting to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ or stock portfolio right now , it might not paint a pretty picture and could prompt you to make decisions you might later regret .
That ’ s part of what happened in 2008 , Hooper said , when average Americans paid too much attention to the stock market , pulled their money out , and then missed out when stocks started to come back .
“ One of the biggest mistakes in the financial crisis was that the average American did focus on it , and many of them changed their asset @ @ @ @ @ @ @ said .
Remember , before the current crisis , Americans were in the midst of the longest economic expansion in US history and a multi-year bull market .
To be sure , the advice around this changes with age — people who have years before they plan to retire can wait out the recovery , while those close to or in retirement might not be able to .
The experts I spoke with said older people have hopefully shifted their investments toward less risky places — more bonds than stocks , for example @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s a reason your 401 ( k ) investment plan often has a target retirement date attached to it . )
For younger people , or those with some money to spare , down markets can be a good time to get in .
If you can afford to kick up your 401 ( k ) contributions , consider it .
Or if you have cash on hand , a lot of stocks might be trading at a discount .
“ If you needed to buy a new pair of shoes and all @ @ @ @ @ @ @ percent off , you wouldn ’ t say , oh , no , there ’ s a terrible shoe crisis , you ’ d say , terrific , I can get the shoes I need for cheaper ?
” Teutsch said .
“ Young people make a fortune on stock market crashes , because they ’ re adding every couple of weeks in bad markets at lower prices ; you just don ’ t get to see it or appreciate it until years down the line , ” said David Bahnsen , a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s important to remember investing has inherent risks , there are no guarantees , things could get much worse before they get better , and the market is next to impossible to time — Warren Buffett once bet the S & P 500 would outperform a basket of hedge funds for a decade .
And he won .
The first thing to know about unemployment insurance is that it ’ s a state-federal program that provides cash benefits , but in terms of administration , it goes through the state .
In @ @ @ @ @ @ @ patchy .
So to apply , you need to go through your state unemployment agency , and guidelines for who qualifies and what benefits are awarded vary .
You can find information about your state ’ s requirements and processes here .
First , we ’ ll go through the typical scenario for unemployment insurance , and then through the changes in the pandemic and how the stimulus package fortifies the program .
If you have been laid off or fired by an employer and have a “ substantial history ” of working @ @ @ @ @ @ @ unemployment insurance benefits on a weekly basis .
Once you start the application process online or by phone , the unemployment insurance office contacts your employer to confirm that your explanation of why the job ended matches up .
If the explanations for the separation are in agreement , then the claim generally moves forward quite quickly .
If not , then there ’ s a dispute , and the state makes a judgment of what happened .
It is worth noting that people who quit their jobs can also file for unemployment @ @ @ @ @ @ @ sexual harassment — but those workers are likelier to lose in the dispute .
“ When there are disputes over what happened , if people are laid off , they collect benefits 70 percent of the time .
If there ’ s a dispute and they quit , they get benefits about 25 percent of the time , ” said Wayne Vroman , a labor economist at the Urban Institute .
The amount you ’ re eligible to receive is calculated based on what you were earning at your job , and maximum @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Many states allow you to collect benefits for a maximum of 26 weeks , but again , that varies .
Vroman estimates that the average across the system is about $ 385 a week .
Across 52 weeks , that would add up to about $ 20,000 under the pre-stimulus system — in other words , it ’ s not a replacement for a full-time job , plus you can ’ t use it for a full year anyway .
Typically , there are limits on how much you can earn while you @ @ @ @ @ @ @ words , no side gigs or freelancing .
Unemployment insurance is funded through payroll taxes paid by employers , and when there are a lot of claims , states can run out of money to pay benefits out .
During the last recession , three dozen states wound up having to borrow from the federal government to cover unemployment insurance .
Because so many people are filing for unemployment amid coronavirus , doing so is extra challenging right now , and many state offices are overwhelmed .
That may translate to delays for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ package puts unemployment insurance on steroids .
It includes a $ 600 per week increase in unemployment benefits on top of state benefits for four months .
It also expands unemployment to people who aren ’ t usually covered — gig workers , freelancers , contractors , the self-employed , and workers who are furloughed or have reduced hours — and allows for 13 weeks to be tacked on to each state ’ s maximum .
“ If you lose your job , if your hours are cut , and even if it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ve lost your job but you ’ ve been put on a zero-hour schedule , you can still apply for unemployment benefits even if your employer tells you you can ’ t , ” said Andrew Stettner , a senior fellow at the Century Foundation .
Vox ’ s Dylan Matthews has an explainer on how the stimulus bill changes unemployment insurance .
6 ) How do I pay for health care if I ’ m laid off ?
In the United States , health coverage is tied to employment .
Now , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ shut down in order to respond to a health crisis , resulting in millions of Americans losing their jobs in the middle of said health crisis and , therefore , many of them losing their health insurance .
“ The joy of picking — or keeping — your health insurance is really predicated on you having a job , ” said Mike Konczal , a fellow at the Roosevelt Institute .
Linda Blumberg , a health system expert at the Urban Institute , talked Vox through what to do if you are laid @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The first step for people who can afford it is to look into the potential for getting COBRA coverage , which basically means you get to hold on to your insurance but pay for it yourself .
But COBRA can be expensive and translate to thousands of dollars in premiums .
For people whose incomes have fallen significantly , and especially for those who live in Medicaid expansion states , Medicaid is another place to look .
You can see if you qualify for Medicaid in your state based on your income here @ @ @ @ @ @ @ into CHIP as well .
People who lose their jobs can also enroll in the Affordable Care Act marketplaces for a certain period , because losing your health insurance , as well as having a baby or getting married , is considered a “ qualifying event.
” And there , you may be eligible for subsidies , too .
Blumberg cautioned people should be thorough in looking for options for enrollment , and they should presume their loss of income is going to persist when inputting information into the system .
“ If @ @ @ @ @ @ @ back or their hours come back up , they can then report that at the time and have the subsidy reduced , ” she said .
Even if you ’ re not eligible for a subsidy , it ’ s an especially critical time to have health insurance , given the coronavirus outbreak .
Blumberg warned against nongovernment , non-marketplace plans and “ short-term , limited-duration ” plans allowed under the Trump administration .
“ Those other policies , it ’ s very difficult , often , to figure out what ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
“ Be very cautious of something that looks too good to be true.
” For those who are uninsured already , it ’ s worth noting that some states have reopened their marketplaces in light of the crisis , so you may be able to get insurance now .
“ Debt is better than dead , ” Blumberg said .
Vox ’ s Dylan Scott has an explainer on health insurance amid coronavirus and the different mechanisms for coverage .
He also notes that the CDC said in a statement to Vox @ @ @ @ @ @ @ legal authority to cover Covid-19 testing and treatment , in collaboration with other federal and local agencies .
In a separate statement , a CDC spokesperson told Vox that there are “ provisions that allocate funding for testing and treatment of the uninsured , which will continue to be announced ” and noted that federally qualified health centers are an important resource for those who lack insurance .
7 ) What other mechanisms are there to help me if I can ’ t pay my bills ?
Beyond unemployment and health insurance , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ help people make ends meet .
For example , there are multiple options for food assistance , including SNAP benefits ( more commonly known as food stamps ) and specific services for pregnant or postpartum women and children and seniors .
In the case of food stamps , they ’ re managed by the states , and you can find a directory here .
Food stamps , like other assistance programs , are pegged to your income .
“ It ’ s possible that you have , even with unemployment insurance , an @ @ @ @ @ @ @ you would be eligible for SNAP , ” Vroman said .
You can also find an outline of government benefits here .
Stettner advised that people should start signing up for benefits and assistance programs as soon as they can .
“ Start the process , because it can take some time .
Don ’ t wait around to the last minute to reach out for help , ” he said .
He added it ’ s also worth reaching out to utility companies in the case of hardships to see if they @ @ @ @ @ @ @ plan to pay your bills .
( The same may apply for rent payments or mortgages , too . )
Unfortunately , a lot of the safety net in the US has been whittled down over the years .
“ It ’ s for the most needy people in our society , so we don ’ t have a lot of room for people just getting by , ” Rouse said .
8 ) How does the stimulus work , and what else is the government doing to help the economy ?
On @ @ @ @ @ @ @ $ 2.2 trillion stimulus package , the CARES Act , to help stabilize and boost the American economy in the time of coronavirus .
Vox ’ s Li Zhou and Ella Nilsen have a full explainer of what ’ s in the bill , and here ’ s a brief overview : • A $ 500 billion loan program for businesses to be administered by the Treasury Department .
Basically , a bailout fund for big business .
• Boosted unemployment insurance that increases benefits by $ 600 a week per four months @ @ @ @ @ @ @ collect benefits • Funds for hospitals , medical equipment , and protection for health care workers totaling $ 150 billion , $ 1 billion of which will go to hospitals , $ 1 billion to the Indiana Health Service , and the rest to increased medical equipment capacity • Roughly $ 150 in aid to state and local governments , including $ 5 billion for tribal governments The other plank of the stimulus , which has gotten perhaps the most attention is the direct payments to be sent to Americans across the country @ @ @ @ @ @ @ from the government you ’ ve probably been hearing about .
( Vox ’ s Dylan Matthews has an explainer on the stimulus checks . )
Single adults who make up to $ 75,000 annually will get a one-time $ 1,200 check , and married couples who make up to $ 150,000 will receive $ 2,400 .
The government will also distribute $ 500 per child .
The payments decrease as incomes go up and phase out by $ 99,000 for singles and $ 198,000 for couples .
The calculations will be made @ @ @ @ @ @ @ filed ( the deadline is now July 15 ) and 2018 taxes for those who have not .
There are several calculators online you can use to figure out how much you ’ ll receive .
For those who don ’ t file taxes because they earned so little they weren ’ t required to , collecting the cash will be more complex .
The IRS says people will need to file a “ simple tax return ” with basic information to collect money , and low-income taxpayers , older people , Social @ @ @ @ @ @ @ individuals who otherwise don ’ t need to file a tax return will not owe tax .
Note that people in households with members who are unauthorized immigrants may be ineligible for the direct payments .
Beyond the stimulus bill , Congress has passed two other coronavirus-related pieces of legislation , and the Federal Reserve has taken steps to help stabilize markets and the economy .
Democrats are pushing for a fourth coronavirus bill , but thus far , it ’ s not clear how much buy-in there is from Republicans .
As @ @ @ @ @ @ @ doing , the answer is plenty , if there ’ s political will .
Americans are facing a health and economic crisis of staggering proportions , and the greater risk is doing too little than in doing too much .
Vox ’ s Matt Yglesias recently laid out some possibilities : “ Does anybody regret how much debt we went into to win World War II ?
” said Betsey Stevenson , an economist at the University of Michigan and former Obama administration official .
“ People rarely complain about how much Congress @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and they need to be thinking about that right now as we fight this pandemic.
” 9 ) Which industries are being hit hardest by this ?
Not every person — or every sector — is being impacted equally by the coronavirus crisis .
“ This recession is going to be , for some people , more devastating than the financial crisis , for some less , ” Klein said .
“ This one is going to start further down on the income spectrum.
” Restaurants , bars , stores , and nonessential @ @ @ @ @ @ @ much of the country .
Airlines have seen an enormous decline in business , as has the travel and hospitality industry across the board .
Schools have been shut down and live entertainment brought to a stop .
The stimulus bill is meant to bring some relief to both small businesses and major corporations , which both got bailout funds as part of the $ 2.2 trillion package .
But , again , it really depends how long this lasts to see how hard the economy to be hit .
Ultimately , businesses @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in , workers , and the workers who will be hardest hit by layoffs and shutdowns are those who can ’ t afford it .
According to estimates from the US Private Sector Job Quality Index , more than 37 million jobs in the US are vulnerable to layoffs in the near term , 35 million of which are considered low-income .
There will likely also be disparities by race and ethnicity .
“ We know that blacks , Latinx , and native people , in terms of race and ethnicity , they @ @ @ @ @ @ @ we also know that their employment is more precarious than that of white people , ” said Darrick Hamilton , the executive director of the Kirwan Institute for the Study of Race and Ethnicity at Ohio State University .
10 ) How can I spend money to help ?
If you have extra cash on hand right now and aren ’ t concerned about parting ways with it , there are plenty of things to do with it to try to help — order delivery from local restaurants and grocery stores , or @ @ @ @ @ @ @ you can use at a later date .
Amazon is one company not worried about its business right now , so maybe get toilet paper from the market down the street instead .
Tip the delivery person generously .
Instead of ordering through a delivery app , try calling the restaurant instead .
Lower-wage service workers are going to be the ones hurt the most the fastest .
“ A lot of small businesses that tend to work on fairly small margins to begin with are going to be very hard hit , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ people , such as a child care provider or cleaning service , you can always keep paying them , even if you ask them not to come .
There are plenty of charities willing to take your money , including GiveDirectly , which is providing cash assistance to families .
You can also contact local food banks and other social service organizations to figure out how you can help .
Another grim reality is that there are plenty of GoFundMe accounts set up to provide economic and medical aid .
But the fact @ @ @ @ @ @ @ only so much that private individuals can do .
“ Fundamentally , this needs to be a government solution .
Individual acts of charity or trying to keep the economy afloat are not sufficient at this moment , ” Konczal said .
“ The recession is ultimately a collective problem , and the government will be the one who determines what happens to small business , self-employed people , and so on down the line.
” 11 ) When will things get better ?
Is there a chance any of this brings about @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the moment , the likeliest scenario is that the economy gets better when the coronavirus crisis gets better , and unfortunately , nobody knows when that will be .
As Dartmouth College economist Bruce Sacerdote put it , “ It ’ s all about getting the damn virus under control.
” There has been some debate about whether the “ cure ” — as in the economic shutdown — is worse than the disease that is coronavirus .
And some people have suggested government officials open the economy back up and start to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the health plank of this is under control .
But is it really worth sacrificing tens of thousands of people so that the Dow Jones Industrial Average will go back up ?
And is it really likely that with a deadly virus spreading , people are going to be eager to go eat at the diner down the street ?
Billionaire Bill Gates recently weighed in : “ It ’ s very tough to say to people , ‘ Hey , keep going to restaurants , go buy new houses , ignore that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
We want you to keep spending because there ’ s maybe a politician who thinks GDP growth is all that counts.
’ ” So for now Americans are in a waiting game with the virus , and once that ’ s under control , the recovery will depend on the mitigation measures the US has taken and will take .
“ The debate is if we end up in a V-shape or a U-shape recovery , and anyone who pretends to have the answer to that is wrong , ” Bahnsen said @ @ @ @ @ @ @ about positive change in the economy , it ’ s hard to tell .
On the one hand , policies and government actions that would have seemed almost unimaginable just weeks or months ago — a check going out to nearly every American household , expanding unemployment insurance — are now a reality .
And in such a scenario where so many Americans are losing health coverage in the time they need it most , it has to make some at least think about the value of Medicare-for-all , or at the very @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
The Great Depression resulted in a dramatic expansion of the social safety net .
“ We ’ re considering this use of public power to address our calamity in ways that the public imagination didn ’ t consider in the past .
The sobering reality is that it ’ s not enough , ” Hamilton said .
“ You can ’ t tell people that this stuff is impossible , because it happened.
” This could also foster a discussion about how Americans treat and think about the workers deemed “ essential @ @ @ @ @ @ @ includes not only doctors and nurses but also home health care workers , grocery store clerks , and service staff .
On the other hand , there ’ s always a tendency to revert to the mean , and recessions and economic crises don ’ t usually make Americans more generous .
“ In general , recessions make people very zero-sum and very hesitant to want to collectively provide security .
We saw that in the Great Recession , ” Konczal said .
“ We should not understand this as an obviously political @ @ @

The American economy seems to have transformed in a matter of weeks as the coronavirus has brought activities across the country to a grinding halt. Not only did the US fail to anticipate the public health crisis caused by coronavirus, but it appears to be unprepared for the economic consequences of getting the pandemic under control.
Most Americans already know they are in a very different economic reality than they were in February. Restaurants are closed or only doing takeout or delivery. Clothing boutiques are shuttering. Americans across the economy have lost their jobs. Even workers whose jobs might be more stable probably don’t want to look at their 401(k)s.
Government officials have made a conscious decision to lock down parts of the economy and implement strict social distancing guidelines to try to better respond to the pandemic. President Donald Trump initially said he’d like to reopen the economy by Easter to avoid further damage — perhaps thinking it’s better to just keep the economy going and let the chips fall where they may — but people aren’t going to be falling over themselves to go to restaurants if there’s a deadly virus spreading. Trump ultimately backed off, and extended social distancing measures to the end of April. After all, the point of the economy is to serve people, not for people to serve it.
“There seems to be a segment of society that’s lost track of the purpose of markets,” said Aaron Klein, the policy director at the Center on Regulation and Markets at the Brookings Institution. “Humanity created markets to efficiently distribute goods and services to serve humanity; markets did not create humanity to efficiently serve the will of the markets.”
We’re stuck in dual crises for the foreseeable future — one that’s health-related, and one that’s economic. Eventually this will end, but there’s no telling when. It’s a confusing time, including when it comes to the money-related end of things. So here are some answers to questions about the economic crisis that you were perhaps too embarrassed — or too afraid — to ask.
1) What is an economic crisis?
An economic crisis is a steep and sudden downturn of the economy. In terms of data, it shows up in a lot of places — GDP growth, unemployment numbers, productivity, and more. Data often lags behind real-time events, but what we already know paints a dire picture: an enormous spike in jobless claims and an economic contraction projection of disturbing proportions.
The US is definitely in an economic crisis right now, albeit a distinct one from crises past, including the one in most recent memory: the financial crisis and Great Recession in the late 2000s. “The prior recession started in the financial markets and affected the real economy; this will start in the real economy and affect the financial markets,” said Klein.
The problem right now isn’t subprime mortgages and banks and hedge funds making bets they shouldn’t — it’s that the US in the midst of a global health crisis and is taking extreme economic measures in an effort to protect the public’s well-being. Public officials have ordered shut wide swaths of the economy, including restaurants, travel, and hospitality, and it’s had a severe and immediate effect. Jobless claims have seen an unprecedented spike, with more than 16 million new claims being filed over the last three weeks alone. During the Great Recession, the highest week of losses was about 600,000, and 8.7 million total jobs were lost over the course of many months. Factories across the country have shut down, businesses are shuttered, and not only do people have less money to spend, they have fewer ways to spend it.
“Everything this time is happening bigger and faster,” Jason Furman, who served as an economic adviser to President Barack Obama, told Vox’s Li Zhou and Ella Nilsen recently in a piece laying out the differences between the 2008 crash and this one.
The question now is if and when the US will be able to get the virus under control so that the economy can start to open back up. “What we need is for everybody to stay home and not go broke doing it,” said Cecilia Rouse, an economist at Princeton and former member of Obama’s Council of Economic Advisers. “The faster we can get this pandemic under control, the faster we can snap back.”
The longer the crisis goes on, the more challenging the recovery becomes, and the longer it will take.
2) What’s the difference between a recession and a depression?
There’s a well-known line among economists that a recession is when your neighbor loses their job, but a depression is when you lose yours, which perhaps gets at the air of difference between the two: A recession feels bad, a depression feels very bad. But the line between recession and depression can be a little fuzzy.
Traditionally, a recession is defined as two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth, but the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) has a broader definition of a “significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy” that lasts for more than a few months and shows up in places like GDP, income, employment, production, and retail sales. In the US, a group within the NBER is officially charged with “calling” when a recession starts and ends — and it usually takes them some time after a recession begins for them to say it’s happening.
A depression, on the other hand, is a more severe and prolonged version of a recession. The Great Depression that lasted from 1929 to the early 1940s included not one but two major economic downturns — one from 1929 to 1933, and another from 1937 to 1938. Output fell sharply.
The coronavirus recession could indeed become a depression. The US is in uncharted territory in what’s going on in the economy — Americans have stopped working, stopped producing, and stopped consuming almost at the drop of a hat. The stock market is volatile, and business investment is slowing. Much of the country has been ground to a halt.
Whether or not the US slips into a depression depends in large part how well Americans are able to weather the storm while the coronavirus portion of the crisis gets figured out. Officials don’t want the economy to become so broken that it can’t be fixed.
“Ultimately, the economy will rebound when the pandemic is under control. The question is, how many businesses will be able to weather the storm, and how many workers will be able to?” Klein said. “The longer the shutdown goes on, the greater effects on the economy, particularly if businesses can’t reopen.”
It’s also important to note that, whatever you call it, not everyone will experience the economic fallout in the same ways. For some people, it will be catastrophic. For others, it will be an inconvenience. Older, low-income, and homeless people and those in other vulnerable communities will also likely experience the economic crisis in more harmful ways, regardless of how the downturn is defined formally.
3) What does the stock market have to do with any of this?
The stock market has been all over the place amid the coronavirus crisis. Major indexes plunged as the gravity of the situation began to take hold in February and March, and stocks have become pretty volatile. But does it matter what the stock market does? Well, yes and no.
The stock market right now is signifying underlying turmoil in the economy. It can also be a leading indicator, albeit a noisy one, of where the economy might be headed, and amid coronavirus, its take appears to be ¯\_(ツ)_/¯. As stocks plunged at the takeoff of the crisis in the US, a lot of investors appear to have pulled out their money and parked it in cash, and uncertainty has created an enormous amount of volatility.
The stock market will likely start to recover before the economy does — that’s what happened after the financial crisis, when it turned up in March 2009 and the recession ended three months later in June — but we won’t know if or when that will be. What happens in the stock market can have a “wealth effect” as well that is largely behavioral — consumers spend more in a bull market. A small majority of Americans own stocks, but the richest Americans own most of the stocks.
But the average person shouldn’t focus too much on what’s going on in the markets, especially in the short term. There’s a saying from legendary investor Benjamin Graham that the market is a voting machine in the short run but a weighing machine in the long run. A stock’s particular price might be up or down on a given day, but ultimately, the underlying fundamentals of a business are what matters.
“What we know about anything that is bought and sold is that price is dictated by price and demand. What helps determine stock prices over the long run, of course, is earnings, it’s fundamentals, but in the short run, panic can create very significant mispricing,” said Kristina Hooper, chief global market strategist at Invesco.
There have also been questions about whether the US could halt stock market trading altogether, beyond the temporary “circuit breaker” stops that are triggered when stocks drop too much. Greg Daco, an economist at Oxford Economics, told me that theoretically it could — after all, there are stock market holidays — but that wouldn’t necessarily solve the volatility problem. “The question is, what happens when it reopens?” he said. “You close the market, reopen it, and it falls by 30 percent, was it worth it?”
4) If I have investments, like a 401(k), what should I be doing?
The best advice right now on what to do on your investments, per finance experts, might also be the hardest to follow: Do nothing.
“Most people are horrible at making long-term investment decisions generally, and that’s exacerbated when they try to make decisions under emotionally intense circumstances,” said Zach Teutsch, a financial adviser at Values Added Financial.
While it may be tempting to look at your 401(k) or stock portfolio right now, it might not paint a pretty picture and could prompt you to make decisions you might later regret. That’s part of what happened in 2008, Hooper said, when average Americans paid too much attention to the stock market, pulled their money out, and then missed out when stocks started to come back. “One of the biggest mistakes in the financial crisis was that the average American did focus on it, and many of them changed their asset allocations as a result,” she said.
Remember, before the current crisis, Americans were in the midst of the longest economic expansion in US history and a multi-year bull market.
To be sure, the advice around this changes with age — people who have years before they plan to retire can wait out the recovery, while those close to or in retirement might not be able to. The experts I spoke with said older people have hopefully shifted their investments toward less risky places — more bonds than stocks, for example — with age. (There’s a reason your 401(k) investment plan often has a target retirement date attached to it.)
For younger people, or those with some money to spare, down markets can be a good time to get in. If you can afford to kick up your 401(k) contributions, consider it. Or if you have cash on hand, a lot of stocks might be trading at a discount. “If you needed to buy a new pair of shoes and all the shoes in the world were 40 percent off, you wouldn’t say, oh, no, there’s a terrible shoe crisis, you’d say, terrific, I can get the shoes I need for cheaper?” Teutsch said.
“Young people make a fortune on stock market crashes, because they’re adding every couple of weeks in bad markets at lower prices; you just don’t get to see it or appreciate it until years down the line,” said David Bahnsen, a portfolio manager and financial commentator.
It’s important to remember investing has inherent risks, there are no guarantees, things could get much worse before they get better, and the market is next to impossible to time — Warren Buffett once bet the S&P 500 would outperform a basket of hedge funds for a decade. And he won.
5) How does unemployment insurance work?
The first thing to know about unemployment insurance is that it’s a state-federal program that provides cash benefits, but in terms of administration, it goes through the state. In other words, it’s pretty patchy. So to apply, you need to go through your state unemployment agency, and guidelines for who qualifies and what benefits are awarded vary. You can find information about your state’s requirements and processes here.
First, we’ll go through the typical scenario for unemployment insurance, and then through the changes in the pandemic and how the stimulus package fortifies the program.
If you have been laid off or fired by an employer and have a “substantial history” of working, then you can apply to collect unemployment insurance benefits on a weekly basis.
Once you start the application process online or by phone, the unemployment insurance office contacts your employer to confirm that your explanation of why the job ended matches up. If the explanations for the separation are in agreement, then the claim generally moves forward quite quickly. If not, then there’s a dispute, and the state makes a judgment of what happened. It is worth noting that people who quit their jobs can also file for unemployment — for example, in cases of sexual harassment — but those workers are likelier to lose in the dispute.
Related Coronavirus could lead to the highest unemployment levels since the Great Depression
“When there are disputes over what happened, if people are laid off, they collect benefits 70 percent of the time. If there’s a dispute and they quit, they get benefits about 25 percent of the time,” said Wayne Vroman, a labor economist at the Urban Institute.
The amount you’re eligible to receive is calculated based on what you were earning at your job, and maximum and minimum amounts vary by state. Many states allow you to collect benefits for a maximum of 26 weeks, but again, that varies. Vroman estimates that the average across the system is about $385 a week. Across 52 weeks, that would add up to about $20,000 under the pre-stimulus system — in other words, it’s not a replacement for a full-time job, plus you can’t use it for a full year anyway. Typically, there are limits on how much you can earn while you’re collecting benefits. In other words, no side gigs or freelancing.
Unemployment insurance is funded through payroll taxes paid by employers, and when there are a lot of claims, states can run out of money to pay benefits out. During the last recession, three dozen states wound up having to borrow from the federal government to cover unemployment insurance.
Because so many people are filing for unemployment amid coronavirus, doing so is extra challenging right now, and many state offices are overwhelmed. That may translate to delays for those filing.
The late March stimulus package puts unemployment insurance on steroids. It includes a $600 per week increase in unemployment benefits on top of state benefits for four months. It also expands unemployment to people who aren’t usually covered — gig workers, freelancers, contractors, the self-employed, and workers who are furloughed or have reduced hours — and allows for 13 weeks to be tacked on to each state’s maximum.
“If you lose your job, if your hours are cut, and even if it doesn’t feel like you’ve lost your job but you’ve been put on a zero-hour schedule, you can still apply for unemployment benefits even if your employer tells you you can’t,” said Andrew Stettner, a senior fellow at the Century Foundation.
Vox’s Dylan Matthews has an explainer on how the stimulus bill changes unemployment insurance.
6) How do I pay for health care if I’m laid off?
In the United States, health coverage is tied to employment. Now, large parts of the economy have been shut down in order to respond to a health crisis, resulting in millions of Americans losing their jobs in the middle of said health crisis and, therefore, many of them losing their health insurance.
“The joy of picking — or keeping — your health insurance is really predicated on you having a job,” said Mike Konczal, a fellow at the Roosevelt Institute.
Linda Blumberg, a health system expert at the Urban Institute, talked Vox through what to do if you are laid off and lose your employer-based insurance.
The first step for people who can afford it is to look into the potential for getting COBRA coverage, which basically means you get to hold on to your insurance but pay for it yourself. But COBRA can be expensive and translate to thousands of dollars in premiums. For people whose incomes have fallen significantly, and especially for those who live in Medicaid expansion states, Medicaid is another place to look. You can see if you qualify for Medicaid in your state based on your income here. For children, you can look into CHIP as well.
People who lose their jobs can also enroll in the Affordable Care Act marketplaces for a certain period, because losing your health insurance, as well as having a baby or getting married, is considered a “qualifying event.” And there, you may be eligible for subsidies, too. Blumberg cautioned people should be thorough in looking for options for enrollment, and they should presume their loss of income is going to persist when inputting information into the system. “If for some reason they get their job back or their hours come back up, they can then report that at the time and have the subsidy reduced,” she said.
Even if you’re not eligible for a subsidy, it’s an especially critical time to have health insurance, given the coronavirus outbreak.
Blumberg warned against nongovernment, non-marketplace plans and “short-term, limited-duration” plans allowed under the Trump administration. “Those other policies, it’s very difficult, often, to figure out what’s excluded from them,” she said. “Be very cautious of something that looks too good to be true.”
For those who are uninsured already, it’s worth noting that some states have reopened their marketplaces in light of the crisis, so you may be able to get insurance now. “Debt is better than dead,” Blumberg said.
Vox’s Dylan Scott has an explainer on health insurance amid coronavirus and the different mechanisms for coverage. He also notes that the CDC said in a statement to Vox that the agency believes it has the legal authority to cover Covid-19 testing and treatment, in collaboration with other federal and local agencies. In a separate statement, a CDC spokesperson told Vox that there are “provisions that allocate funding for testing and treatment of the uninsured, which will continue to be announced” and noted that federally qualified health centers are an important resource for those who lack insurance.
7) What other mechanisms are there to help me if I can’t pay my bills?
Beyond unemployment and health insurance, there are other ways out there to help people make ends meet.
For example, there are multiple options for food assistance, including SNAP benefits (more commonly known as food stamps) and specific services for pregnant or postpartum women and children and seniors. In the case of food stamps, they’re managed by the states, and you can find a directory here. Food stamps, like other assistance programs, are pegged to your income.
“It’s possible that you have, even with unemployment insurance, an income that’s low enough that you would be eligible for SNAP,” Vroman said.
You can also find an outline of government benefits here.
Stettner advised that people should start signing up for benefits and assistance programs as soon as they can. “Start the process, because it can take some time. Don’t wait around to the last minute to reach out for help,” he said. He added it’s also worth reaching out to utility companies in the case of hardships to see if they’ll work with you on a plan to pay your bills. (The same may apply for rent payments or mortgages, too.)
Unfortunately, a lot of the safety net in the US has been whittled down over the years. “It’s for the most needy people in our society, so we don’t have a lot of room for people just getting by,” Rouse said.
8) How does the stimulus work, and what else is the government doing to help the economy?
On March 27, the president signed a $2.2 trillion stimulus package, the CARES Act, to help stabilize and boost the American economy in the time of coronavirus. Vox’s Li Zhou and Ella Nilsen have a full explainer of what’s in the bill, and here’s a brief overview:
A $500 billion loan program for businesses to be administered by the Treasury Department. Basically, a bailout fund for big business.
Boosted unemployment insurance that increases benefits by $600 a week per four months and expands who can apply for and collect benefits
Funds for hospitals, medical equipment, and protection for health care workers totaling $150 billion, $1 billion of which will go to hospitals, $1 billion to the Indian Health Service, and the rest to increased medical equipment capacity
Roughly $150 billion in aid to state and local governments, including $5 billion for tribal governments
About $377 billion in small business loans
The other plank of the stimulus, which has gotten perhaps the most attention is the direct payments to be sent to Americans across the country — in other words, those checks from the government you’ve probably been hearing about. (Vox’s Dylan Matthews has an explainer on the stimulus checks.)
Single adults who make up to $75,000 annually will get a one-time $1,200 check, and married couples who make up to $150,000 will receive $2,400. The government will also distribute $500 per child. The payments decrease as incomes go up and phase out by $99,000 for singles and $198,000 for couples. The calculations will be made using 2019 taxes for those who have filed (the deadline is now July 15) and 2018 taxes for those who have not. There are several calculators online you can use to figure out how much you’ll receive.
For those who don’t file taxes because they earned so little they weren’t required to, collecting the cash will be more complex. The IRS says people will need to file a “simple tax return” with basic information to collect money, and low-income taxpayers, older people, Social Security recipients, some veterans, and individuals who otherwise don’t need to file a tax return will not owe tax. Note that people in households with members who are unauthorized immigrants may be ineligible for the direct payments.
Beyond the stimulus bill, Congress has passed two other coronavirus-related pieces of legislation, and the Federal Reserve has taken steps to help stabilize markets and the economy. Democrats are pushing for a fourth coronavirus bill, but thus far, it’s not clear how much buy-in there is from Republicans.
As for what else the government could be doing, the answer is plenty, if there’s political will. Americans are facing a health and economic crisis of staggering proportions, and the greater risk is doing too little than in doing too much. Vox’s Matt Yglesias recently laid out some possibilities:
The US needs to take the analogy of wartime mobilization that’s been used by many leaders much more seriously and deliver trillions more in tax cuts and spending increases to stimulate demand. Much of that spending should be aimed at mobilizing workers and industry to provide the goods and services the US needs to continue coping with a virus that, even if successfully contained, is not going to vanish soon. To cope with the twin crises of economics and public health, the US will need substantial investment in the production of personal protective equipment for health care workers, but may also need production of masks and gloves for the public. It will need a huge infusion of funds to state and local governments so they can continue to provide — even expand — needed services. It will need medical research in spades, and we’ll need income support for households and businesses as they struggle to adapt to a new world of doing things in less efficient, more socially distant ways. And to support it all, the US needs a creative and flexible Federal Reserve willing to adopt a wartime mentality to finance.
“Does anybody regret how much debt we went into to win World War II?” said Betsey Stevenson, an economist at the University of Michigan and former Obama administration official. “People rarely complain about how much Congress is spending to fight a war, and they need to be thinking about that right now as we fight this pandemic.”
9) Which industries are being hit hardest by this?
Not every person — or every sector — is being impacted equally by the coronavirus crisis.
“This recession is going to be, for some people, more devastating than the financial crisis, for some less,” Klein said. “This one is going to start further down on the income spectrum.”
Restaurants, bars, stores, and nonessential businesses have been forced to close across much of the country. Airlines have seen an enormous decline in business, as has the travel and hospitality industry across the board. Schools have been shut down and live entertainment brought to a stop.
The stimulus bill is meant to bring some relief to both small businesses and major corporations, which both got bailout funds as part of the $2.2 trillion package. But, again, it really depends how long this lasts to see how hard the economy to be hit.
Ultimately, businesses and industries translate to people, as in, workers, and the workers who will be hardest hit by layoffs and shutdowns are those who can’t afford it. According to estimates from the US Private Sector Job Quality Index, more than 37 million jobs in the US are vulnerable to layoffs in the near term, 35 million of which are considered low-income.
There will likely also be disparities by race and ethnicity.
“We know that blacks, Latinx, and native people, in terms of race and ethnicity, they have lower levels of reserves, and we also know that their employment is more precarious than that of white people,” said Darrick Hamilton, the executive director of the Kirwan Institute for the Study of Race and Ethnicity at Ohio State University.
10) How can I spend money to help?
If you have extra cash on hand right now and aren’t concerned about parting ways with it, there are plenty of things to do with it to try to help — order delivery from local restaurants and grocery stores, or buy gift certificates for local businesses that you can use at a later date. Amazon is one company not worried about its business right now, so maybe get toilet paper from the market down the street instead. Tip the delivery person generously. Instead of ordering through a delivery app, try calling the restaurant instead. Lower-wage service workers are going to be the ones hurt the most the fastest.
“A lot of small businesses that tend to work on fairly small margins to begin with are going to be very hard hit,” Rouse said.
If you employ people, such as a child care provider or cleaning service, you can always keep paying them, even if you ask them not to come.
There are plenty of charities willing to take your money, including GiveDirectly, which is providing cash assistance to families. You can also contact local food banks and other social service organizations to figure out how you can help. Another grim reality is that there are plenty of GoFundMe accounts set up to provide economic and medical aid.
But the fact of the matter is, there is only so much that private individuals can do.
“Fundamentally, this needs to be a government solution. Individual acts of charity or trying to keep the economy afloat are not sufficient at this moment,” Konczal said. “The recession is ultimately a collective problem, and the government will be the one who determines what happens to small business, self-employed people, and so on down the line.”
11) When will things get better? Is there a chance any of this brings about positive change to the economy?
At the moment, the likeliest scenario is that the economy gets better when the coronavirus crisis gets better, and unfortunately, nobody knows when that will be. As Dartmouth College economist Bruce Sacerdote put it, “It’s all about getting the damn virus under control.”
There has been some debate about whether the “cure” — as in the economic shutdown — is worse than the disease that is coronavirus. And some people have suggested government officials open the economy back up and start to ease restrictions on social distancing even before the health plank of this is under control. But is it really worth sacrificing tens of thousands of people so that the Dow Jones Industrial Average will go back up? And is it really likely that with a deadly virus spreading, people are going to be eager to go eat at the diner down the street?
Billionaire Bill Gates recently weighed in: “It’s very tough to say to people, ‘Hey, keep going to restaurants, go buy new houses, ignore that pile of bodies over in the corner. We want you to keep spending because there’s maybe a politician who thinks GDP growth is all that counts.’”
Vox’s Ezra Klein also recently did a deep dive:
You can suppress the virus now and deal with a terrible economy six months from now, or you can wait two more months to suppress the virus, find yourself forced into yet more extreme quarantine measures because the virus is pervasive and the death toll overwhelming, and find yourself in an even more horrendous economy on the other side.
So for now Americans are in a waiting game with the virus, and once that’s under control, the recovery will depend on the mitigation measures the US has taken and will take. “The debate is if we end up in a V-shape or a U-shape recovery, and anyone who pretends to have the answer to that is wrong,” Bahnsen said.
As to whether this will bring about positive change in the economy, it’s hard to tell. On the one hand, policies and government actions that would have seemed almost unimaginable just weeks or months ago — a check going out to nearly every American household, expanding unemployment insurance — are now a reality. And in such a scenario where so many Americans are losing health coverage in the time they need it most, it has to make some at least think about the value of Medicare-for-all, or at the very least, a public health insurance option. The Great Depression resulted in a dramatic expansion of the social safety net.
“We’re considering this use of public power to address our calamity in ways that the public imagination didn’t consider in the past. The sobering reality is that it’s not enough,” Hamilton said. “You can’t tell people that this stuff is impossible, because it happened.”
This could also foster a discussion about how Americans treat and think about the workers deemed “essential” during times of crisis, which includes not only doctors and nurses but also home health care workers, grocery store clerks, and service staff.
On the other hand, there’s always a tendency to revert to the mean, and recessions and economic crises don’t usually make Americans more generous. “In general, recessions make people very zero-sum and very hesitant to want to collectively provide security. We saw that in the Great Recession,” Konczal said. “We should not understand this as an obviously political moment.”