vox--2020-11-03--How long it could take to count the vote this year, explained

Share All sharing options for : How long it could take to count the vote this year , explained The big question overshadowing “ Who will win the presidential election ?
” is : “ When will we actually know who won ?
” The pandemic and historic levels of mail-in voting mean that we have reason to expect that certain states will be very , very slow to count their votes this year — while others will be at least relatively quicker .
Of the six key swing states that will most likely determine the election , the general @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , and Arizona are in a good place to count most of their votes on election night or soon afterward .
Of course , the closer the margin in any of these states is , the longer it will take to settle who won , and unexpected problems may arise .
But these states have at least done the bare minimum to prepare for the unprecedented number of mailed ballots pouring in this year .
Pennsylvania , Wisconsin , and Michigan — the trio of states that clinched Trump ’ s victory in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Republican legislatures in each have almost totally refused to update antiquated policies on how mailed ballots will be processed and counted .
So these states could take days to finish their counts .
( Wisconsin may come close early Wednesday , however . )
And if the in-person vote is more pro-Trump than the mail vote in these states , the slow mail count could leave the impression Trump is ahead on election night , even if that ’ s incorrect .
The way the electoral math works , Trump almost certainly can @ @ @ @ @ @ @ at least one of those three slow-counting states .
That means that , barring a catastrophic polling error flipping undreamed-of states in Trump ’ s favor , he is probably not going to be called the winner on election night .
His path to victory goes through the slow states .
Biden , though , is on the offensive in several other states Trump won last time — states that are expected to be relatively quicker at counting .
If Biden flips must-win states for Trump like Florida or North Carolina , he @ @ @ @ @ @ @ presidency .
The same would hold true if he scores surprising wins in some of his reach states , like Georgia , Ohio , or Texas .
Conversely , if Trump manages to hold on in those states — or if they are so close that they remain uncalled — then settle in for a long few days .
This is going to take a while .
There are many normal , if unfortunate , reasons that vote-counting can take a while .
Long lines can keep polling places open late .
Technical @ @ @ @ @ @ @ mishaps can slow reporting .
And if the margin between the candidates is extremely close , even if things are mostly working fine , the winner may take some time to determine .
But in the year of Covid-19 , there ’ s one issue that ’ s looming above all others : how election officials will handle an unprecedented number of mail-in ballots .
The challenge here is that mailed ballots are time-consuming to process since they must be verified against registration information to make sure the vote was properly cast .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ voters at polling places are waiting in line for .
You have to identify yourself , and then poll workers will check to see if you are registered , if you ’ re voting in the proper place , and that you haven ’ t voted already .
If everything looks good , you can then go cast your secret ballot .
( If there ’ s a problem , you may be able to cast a provisional ballot , and the decision of whether it will count will be made later .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ process still happens , to prevent fraud — but it happens after you ’ ve returned your ballot , and you don ’ t get to see it .
Local election officials have to verify that each mail-in ballot was properly cast .
Most notably , the voter ’ s signature must be verified — and some states have further requirements ( like Pennsylvania ’ s secrecy envelopes ) that if not properly completed can also lead ballots to be rejected .
But there ’ s also the physical process of opening all @ @ @ @ @ @ @ precinct , and preparing the physical ballots for counting .
Doing this for hundreds of thousands of mailed-in votes takes quite a while .
There ’ s a simple solution , but Republicans in some states blocked it for political reasons Happily , there ’ s a simple way states can speed things up : They can start processing or even counting mailed ballots before Election Day arrives .
Several states have chosen to do this , though there are a few unfortunate exceptions .
Florida , for instance , started first processing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ago ( though the tallies won ’ t be publicly released until polls close on election night ) .
Despite being known for messy , disputed elections , Florida has a history of handling lots of mail ballots and a significant in-person early vote , and the state does tend to get its count done relatively quickly .
( Though the closer the count is , the longer it will take to call a winner . )
Arizona , meanwhile , started processing and counting mail ballots on October 20 .
Arizona also @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and they ’ ve learned to make improvements in their process .
In 2018 , as officials counted mail ballots slowly , the US Senate race shifted from Martha McSally leading on Election Day to Kyrsten Sinema winning a few days later .
But that year , Arizona ’ s mail ballot processing could only begin a week before Election Day .
Now , a new 2019 law has expanded that window , so processing started two weeks beforehand .
It remains to be seen how it will work in practice , but @ @ @ @ @ @ @ week lead time will help significantly .
In North Carolina , mailed ballots can be processed and approved ballots could be placed in machines starting in late September , and even though the actual count won ’ t begin until Election Day , many will be processed and ready for a quick count .
( North Carolina has a particularly large amount of in-person early votes , which can also be counted speedily . )
The result will be that , in each of these states , a large “ dump ” of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ include in-person early votes , too , or be tabulated separately ) will be announced relatively early on election night .
That doesn ’ t necessarily mean a quick call in any of these states — the margin could be close , and the in-person electorate may look quite different from the early-voting electorate .
But if things go roughly as planned , it will probably mean that well over half the votes in these states get counted quickly , simply because they started earlier .
It also means that if the early @ @ @ @ @ @ @ than the election day vote , the early count could give the impression that Biden is ahead — and his lead could shrink as the in-person votes are counted .
But Pennsylvania , Michigan , and Wisconsin refused to take this basic , commonsense step of beginning ballot processing early .
More specifically , those states ’ Republican legislatures refused to change state law to allow this , despite Democrats ’ pleadings .
As a result , the time-consuming process of determining whether each mail-in ballot was properly cast can ’ t start @ @ @ @ @ @ @ GOP deigned to let some areas of the state start one day early ) .
From the standpoint of good government , this is inexplicable ; it can only be explained by partisan politics .
President Trump has polarized the issue of mail-in voting in an unusual way , such that Republicans have told pollsters they ’ re more likely to vote in-person .
By slowing the count of mail-in votes , Republicans in these states evidently hope the in-person votes will be counted first and show Trump ahead .
Then , when @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Democrats , Trump can baselessly disparage their gains as illegitimate and based on fraud .
Still , this doesn ’ t have to be a partisan issue — Republican officials in Florida and Arizona have more experience with mail-in balloting and agreed on commonsense provisions for the speedy processing of mailed ballots .
Wisconsin , Michigan , and Pennsylvania are really the odd exceptions here .
On election night , keep in mind mailed votes in Pennsylvania , Wisconsin , and Michigan expected to favor Democrats will be counted more slowly — and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s another hitch with mail voting : Some states will eventually count votes that haven ’ t even arrived on election night because they ’ re still in the mail .
No state will count mail votes that are postmarked after Election Day ( some require the postmark to be the day before ) .
And many states have a hard deadline of counting only mailed ballots that arrive on or before Election Day .
These include Florida , Arizona , Michigan , and Wisconsin ( the Supreme Court just upheld Wisconsin @ @ @ @ @ @ @ mailed ballots , the verification process happens after you ’ ve returned your ballot , and you don ’ t get to see it But some states are a bit more generous to procrastinators , so long as their ballot is postmarked by Election Day or before .
For instance , Pennsylvania currently plans to count ballots arriving up to three days after Election Day ( though the US Supreme Court could change that ) .
North Carolina will count ballots arriving up to nine days after .
And Ohio will count ballots @ @ @ @ @ @ @ election , though they must be postmarked the day before the election or earlier .
( Some states also have different deadlines for overseas and military voters . )
In states like these , then , there will be a “ tail ” of late-arriving mail votes that will trickle in gradually in the days after the election .
The fact that North Carolina accepts ballots coming in nine days after the election doesn ’ t mean that we won ’ t know North Carolina results until then .
Remember , the ballots @ @ @ @ @ @ @ before .
So the bulk of the outstanding vote will likely come in a few days after the election , with fewer and fewer stragglers as the days pass .
After those first few days , the remaining ballots trickling in would only be relevant in an extraordinarily close election .
Starting ballot processing early is a no-brainer , but the decision on when to set the deadline for mailed ballots involves a trade-off between two goals .
A strict Election Day deadline helps speed up the count , but a more lenient @ @ @ @ @ @ @ And here again , President Trump has tried to disingenuously portray late-arriving mail votes as fraudulent .
Finally , there are also other , more ordinary reasons votes could be slow to count .
Urban areas often take longer to complete their tallies than suburban or rural ones .
Provisional ballots ( ballots cast when there ’ s a problem with the voter ’ s information , which may or may not later be counted ) take some time to sort out since some states give voters a chance to correct problems with @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , New York , and Washington have histories of counting slowly , which explained most of why the 2016 popular vote moved from a tie on election night to a 2.1 percentage point Hillary Clinton advantage by December .
( California , however , has added three extra weeks of ballot processing time this year . )
But when it comes to the Electoral College , the big picture is that Pennsylvania , Michigan , and Wisconsin appear the least likely to produce speedy results on election night .
The other swing states @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s hard to tell in advance how their plans will work out in practice , and any of them could have a close enough margin that a call would take some time anyway .
( For instance , in 2018 , Florida ’ s Senate and governor races were both decided by less than half a percentage point .
It took more than two weeks and three recounts before both races were decided . )
Still , if enough states have their acts together on vote-counting , Biden does have plausible paths @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to rely on the slow counts from Pennsylvania , Michigan , or Wisconsin .
For instance , Biden currently narrowly leads in the FiveThirtyEight polling averages for Florida , North Carolina , Arizona , Iowa , and Georgia .
Winning Florida alone , plus the solidly blue states , would put Biden quite close to the magic number of 270 electoral votes .
Polls also show Trump up only narrowly in Texas and Ohio , two other electoral vote-rich prizes that , if called for Biden on election night , could signal a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ mail voting but a great deal of in-person early voting , which is quick to count .
Ohio allows counties to start processing ballots early , but does have that 10-day tail for late-arriving mailed ballots , though they must be postmarked the day before election day . )
Trump , meanwhile , would have a very hard time cobbling together 270 electoral votes on election night if we assume that Michigan , Wisconsin , and Pennsylvania won ’ t be called yet .
Here ’ s a map that gives Trump all @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , including those where he ’ s currently trailing in polls .
He ’ s still a bit short .
So to get an election night victory , Trump would have to flip at least two states where polls show him behind quite a bit — perhaps Nevada and Minnesota , or Nevada and New Hampshire .
Overall , it is entirely possible that enough states will count enough votes to signal a clear Biden victory on election night .
But things might also be closer and slower and take longer to call @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .

Share All sharing options for: How long it could take to count the vote this year, explained
The big question overshadowing “Who will win the presidential election?” is: “When will we actually know who won?”
The pandemic and historic levels of mail-in voting mean that we have reason to expect that certain states will be very, very slow to count their votes this year — while others will be at least relatively quicker.
Of the six key swing states that will most likely determine the election, the general expectation is that Florida, North Carolina, and Arizona are in a good place to count most of their votes on election night or soon afterward. Of course, the closer the margin in any of these states is, the longer it will take to settle who won, and unexpected problems may arise. But these states have at least done the bare minimum to prepare for the unprecedented number of mailed ballots pouring in this year.
Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan — the trio of states that clinched Trump’s victory in 2016 — are a different story. Republican legislatures in each have almost totally refused to update antiquated policies on how mailed ballots will be processed and counted. So these states could take days to finish their counts. (Wisconsin may come close early Wednesday, however.)
And if the in-person vote is more pro-Trump than the mail vote in these states, the slow mail count could leave the impression Trump is ahead on election night, even if that’s incorrect.
The way the electoral math works, Trump almost certainly can’t win the presidency without winning at least one of those three slow-counting states. That means that, barring a catastrophic polling error flipping undreamed-of states in Trump’s favor, he is probably not going to be called the winner on election night. His path to victory goes through the slow states.
Biden, though, is on the offensive in several other states Trump won last time — states that are expected to be relatively quicker at counting. If Biden flips must-win states for Trump like Florida or North Carolina, he’s almost certain to win the presidency. The same would hold true if he scores surprising wins in some of his reach states, like Georgia, Ohio, or Texas.
Conversely, if Trump manages to hold on in those states — or if they are so close that they remain uncalled — then settle in for a long few days. This is going to take a while.
Mail-in ballots take longer to process
There are many normal, if unfortunate, reasons that vote-counting can take a while. Long lines can keep polling places open late. Technical difficulties, understaffing, or other assorted mishaps can slow reporting. And if the margin between the candidates is extremely close, even if things are mostly working fine, the winner may take some time to determine.
But in the year of Covid-19, there’s one issue that’s looming above all others: how election officials will handle an unprecedented number of mail-in ballots.
The challenge here is that mailed ballots are time-consuming to process since they must be verified against registration information to make sure the vote was properly cast.
Keep in mind what all those in-person voters at polling places are waiting in line for. You have to identify yourself, and then poll workers will check to see if you are registered, if you’re voting in the proper place, and that you haven’t voted already. If everything looks good, you can then go cast your secret ballot. (If there’s a problem, you may be able to cast a provisional ballot, and the decision of whether it will count will be made later.)
For mailed ballots, that verification process still happens, to prevent fraud — but it happens after you’ve returned your ballot, and you don’t get to see it.
Local election officials have to verify that each mail-in ballot was properly cast. Most notably, the voter’s signature must be verified — and some states have further requirements (like Pennsylvania’s secrecy envelopes) that if not properly completed can also lead ballots to be rejected. But there’s also the physical process of opening all those envelopes, sorting them based on precinct, and preparing the physical ballots for counting. Doing this for hundreds of thousands of mailed-in votes takes quite a while.
There’s a simple solution, but Republicans in some states blocked it for political reasons
Happily, there’s a simple way states can speed things up: They can start processing or even counting mailed ballots before Election Day arrives. Several states have chosen to do this, though there are a few unfortunate exceptions.
Florida, for instance, started first processing and then counting returned mailed ballots weeks ago (though the tallies won’t be publicly released until polls close on election night). Despite being known for messy, disputed elections, Florida has a history of handling lots of mail ballots and a significant in-person early vote, and the state does tend to get its count done relatively quickly. (Though the closer the count is, the longer it will take to call a winner.)
Arizona, meanwhile, started processing and counting mail ballots on October 20. Arizona also has experience with widespread mail voting, and they’ve learned to make improvements in their process. In 2018, as officials counted mail ballots slowly, the US Senate race shifted from Martha McSally leading on Election Day to Kyrsten Sinema winning a few days later. But that year, Arizona’s mail ballot processing could only begin a week before Election Day. Now, a new 2019 law has expanded that window, so processing started two weeks beforehand. It remains to be seen how it will work in practice, but it’s likely that an extra week lead time will help significantly.
In North Carolina, mailed ballots can be processed and approved ballots could be placed in machines starting in late September, and even though the actual count won’t begin until Election Day, many will be processed and ready for a quick count. (North Carolina has a particularly large amount of in-person early votes, which can also be counted speedily.)
The result will be that, in each of these states, a large “dump” of already-counted early vote totals (which can include in-person early votes, too, or be tabulated separately) will be announced relatively early on election night.
That doesn’t necessarily mean a quick call in any of these states — the margin could be close, and the in-person electorate may look quite different from the early-voting electorate. But if things go roughly as planned, it will probably mean that well over half the votes in these states get counted quickly, simply because they started earlier.
It also means that if the early vote in these states is more pro-Biden than the election day vote, the early count could give the impression that Biden is ahead — and his lead could shrink as the in-person votes are counted.
But Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin refused to take this basic, commonsense step of beginning ballot processing early. More specifically, those states’ Republican legislatures refused to change state law to allow this, despite Democrats’ pleadings. As a result, the time-consuming process of determining whether each mail-in ballot was properly cast can’t start until Election Day itself (the Michigan GOP deigned to let some areas of the state start one day early).
From the standpoint of good government, this is inexplicable; it can only be explained by partisan politics. President Trump has polarized the issue of mail-in voting in an unusual way, such that Republicans have told pollsters they’re more likely to vote in-person. By slowing the count of mail-in votes, Republicans in these states evidently hope the in-person votes will be counted first and show Trump ahead. Then, when those mail votes are slowly counted for Democrats, Trump can baselessly disparage their gains as illegitimate and based on fraud.
Still, this doesn’t have to be a partisan issue — Republican officials in Florida and Arizona have more experience with mail-in balloting and agreed on commonsense provisions for the speedy processing of mailed ballots. Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania are really the odd exceptions here.
On election night, keep in mind mailed votes in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan expected to favor Democrats will be counted more slowly — and that’s by design.
The mail tail
There’s another hitch with mail voting: Some states will eventually count votes that haven’t even arrived on election night because they’re still in the mail.
No state will count mail votes that are postmarked after Election Day (some require the postmark to be the day before). And many states have a hard deadline of counting only mailed ballots that arrive on or before Election Day. These include Florida, Arizona, Michigan, and Wisconsin (the Supreme Court just upheld Wisconsin’s deadline Monday).
For mailed ballots, the verification process happens after you’ve returned your ballot, and you don’t get to see it
But some states are a bit more generous to procrastinators, so long as their ballot is postmarked by Election Day or before. For instance, Pennsylvania currently plans to count ballots arriving up to three days after Election Day (though the US Supreme Court could change that). North Carolina will count ballots arriving up to nine days after. And Ohio will count ballots received up to 10 days after the election, though they must be postmarked the day before the election or earlier. (Some states also have different deadlines for overseas and military voters.)
In states like these, then, there will be a “tail” of late-arriving mail votes that will trickle in gradually in the days after the election.
The fact that North Carolina accepts ballots coming in nine days after the election doesn’t mean that we won’t know North Carolina results until then. Remember, the ballots must be postmarked on Election Day or before. So the bulk of the outstanding vote will likely come in a few days after the election, with fewer and fewer stragglers as the days pass. After those first few days, the remaining ballots trickling in would only be relevant in an extraordinarily close election.
Starting ballot processing early is a no-brainer, but the decision on when to set the deadline for mailed ballots involves a trade-off between two goals. A strict Election Day deadline helps speed up the count, but a more lenient deadline helps more votes be counted. And here again, President Trump has tried to disingenuously portray late-arriving mail votes as fraudulent.
The big picture for election night
Finally, there are also other, more ordinary reasons votes could be slow to count. Urban areas often take longer to complete their tallies than suburban or rural ones. Provisional ballots (ballots cast when there’s a problem with the voter’s information, which may or may not later be counted) take some time to sort out since some states give voters a chance to correct problems with their information.
Non-swing states like California, New York, and Washington have histories of counting slowly, which explained most of why the 2016 popular vote moved from a tie on election night to a 2.1 percentage point Hillary Clinton advantage by December. (California, however, has added three extra weeks of ballot processing time this year.)
But when it comes to the Electoral College, the big picture is that Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin appear the least likely to produce speedy results on election night.
The other swing states generally seem better prepared, but it’s hard to tell in advance how their plans will work out in practice, and any of them could have a close enough margin that a call would take some time anyway. (For instance, in 2018, Florida’s Senate and governor races were both decided by less than half a percentage point. It took more than two weeks and three recounts before both races were decided.)
Still, if enough states have their acts together on vote-counting, Biden does have plausible paths to victory on election night without needing to rely on the slow counts from Pennsylvania, Michigan, or Wisconsin.
For instance, Biden currently narrowly leads in the FiveThirtyEight polling averages for Florida, North Carolina, Arizona, Iowa, and Georgia. Winning Florida alone, plus the solidly blue states, would put Biden quite close to the magic number of 270 electoral votes.
Polls also show Trump up only narrowly in Texas and Ohio, two other electoral vote-rich prizes that, if called for Biden on election night, could signal a Biden landslide. (Texas has little mail voting but a great deal of in-person early voting, which is quick to count. Ohio allows counties to start processing ballots early, but does have that 10-day tail for late-arriving mailed ballots, though they must be postmarked the day before election day.)
Trump, meanwhile, would have a very hard time cobbling together 270 electoral votes on election night if we assume that Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania won’t be called yet. Here’s a map that gives Trump all the other states he won in 2016, including those where he’s currently trailing in polls. He’s still a bit short.
So to get an election night victory, Trump would have to flip at least two states where polls show him behind quite a bit — perhaps Nevada and Minnesota, or Nevada and New Hampshire.
Overall, it is entirely possible that enough states will count enough votes to signal a clear Biden victory on election night. But things might also be closer and slower and take longer to call. It is 2020, after all.


vox--2020-11-03--Here’s when the polls close in every state

While we may not know the results for a few days or even weeks after Election Day , the deadline to cast a ballot will be Tuesday evening .
Results will start to come in once the polls close — but even within some states , that ’ s not at the same time .
The first polls close in parts of Indiana and Kentucky at 6 pm ET , but only the parts of those states that lie within the Eastern time zone .
Polls in the Central time portions of Indiana and Kentucky close at 7 pm ET @ @ @ @ @ @ @ In fact , 13 states are split between two time zones , and polls will close an hour apart in 11 of them .
The first big wave happens at 7 pm ET , when seven states will have all of their polls close , including states with interesting Senate races like Georgia and South Carolina .
The next — and biggest — wave will be at 8 pm ET , when more than 20 states will have polls closing in part or all of their territory .
If you are headed to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a guide to your voting rights .
You can check your polling place here .
Some other things to keep in mind : In certain states , you may be entitled to paid time off from work to vote .
And if you are in line when the polls close , you should still be able to cast your vote .
Here ’ s the list of when polls close in every state chronologically : • 7 pm ET : Florida ( E ) , Georgia , Indiana ( Central time region ) @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Hampshire ( varies by municipality ) , South Carolina , Virginia , Vermont • 8 pm ET : Alabama , Connecticut , Delaware , Florida ( C ) , Illinois , Kansas ( C ) , Maine , Maryland , Massachusetts , Michigan ( E ) , Mississippi , Missouri , New Hampshire ( varies by municipality ) , New Jersey , North Dakota ( C ) , Oklahoma , Pennsylvania , Rhode Island , South Dakota ( C ) , Tennessee , Texas ( C ) , Washington , DC • 9 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Kansas ( Mountain time region ) , Louisiana , Michigan ( C ) , Minnesota , Nebraska , New Mexico , New York , North Dakota ( M ) , South Dakota ( M ) , Texas ( M ) , Wisconsin , Wyoming And in case you ’ re just looking for your state , here ’ s each state and its poll closing times , in alphabetical order .
Alaska : Midnight ET ( A ) , 1 am ET ( H ) ; 8 pm local Florida : 7 pm @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ET ( C ) ; 7 pm local Indiana : 6 pm ET ( E ) , 7 pm ET ( C ) ; 6 pm local Kansas : 8 pm ET ( C ) , 9 pm ET ( M ) ; 7 pm local Kentucky : 6 pm ET ( E ) , 7 pm ET ( C ) ; 6 pm local Michigan : 8 pm ET ( E ) , 9 pm ET ( C ) ; 8 pm local Nebraska : 9 pm ET ( 8 pm local @ @ @ @ @ @ @ MT ) New Hampshire : 7 or 8 pm ET/local ( varies by municipality ) North Dakota : 8 pm ET ( C ) , 9 pm ET ( M ) ; 7 pm local South Dakota : 8 pm ET ( C ) , 9 pm ET ( M ) ; 7 pm local Tennessee : 8 pm ET ( 8 pm local for ET , 7 pm local for CT ) Texas : 8 pm ET ( C ) , 9 pm ET ( M ) ; 7 pm local

While we may not know the results for a few days or even weeks after Election Day, the deadline to cast a ballot will be Tuesday evening. Results will start to come in once the polls close — but even within some states, that’s not at the same time.
The first polls close in parts of Indiana and Kentucky at 6 pm ET, but only the parts of those states that lie within the Eastern time zone. Polls in the Central time portions of Indiana and Kentucky close at 7 pm ET, or 6 pm local time. In fact, 13 states are split between two time zones, and polls will close an hour apart in 11 of them.
The first big wave happens at 7 pm ET, when seven states will have all of their polls close, including states with interesting Senate races like Georgia and South Carolina. The next — and biggest — wave will be at 8 pm ET, when more than 20 states will have polls closing in part or all of their territory. (Vox has live results you can follow for the presidential race, Senate races, and House races.)
If you are headed to the polls on Tuesday, Vox has a guide to your voting rights. You can check your polling place here.
Some other things to keep in mind: In certain states, you may be entitled to paid time off from work to vote. And if you are in line when the polls close, you should still be able to cast your vote.
Here’s the list of when polls close in every state chronologically:
6 pm ET: Indiana (Eastern time region), Kentucky (E)
Indiana (Eastern time region), Kentucky (E) 7 pm ET: Florida (E), Georgia, Indiana (Central time region), Kentucky (C), New Hampshire (varies by municipality), South Carolina, Virginia, Vermont
7:30 pm ET: North Carolina, Ohio, West Virginia
North Carolina, Ohio, West Virginia 8 pm ET: Alabama, Connecticut, Delaware, Florida (C), Illinois, Kansas (C), Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan (E), Mississippi, Missouri, New Hampshire (varies by municipality), New Jersey, North Dakota (C), Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South Dakota (C), Tennessee, Texas (C), Washington, DC
8:30 pm ET: Arkansas
Arkansas 9 pm ET: Arizona, Colorado, Kansas (Mountain time region), Louisiana, Michigan (C), Minnesota, Nebraska, New Mexico, New York, North Dakota (M), South Dakota (M), Texas (M), Wisconsin, Wyoming
Arizona, Colorado, Kansas (Mountain time region), Louisiana, Michigan (C), Minnesota, Nebraska, New Mexico, New York, North Dakota (M), South Dakota (M), Texas (M), Wisconsin, Wyoming 10 pm ET: Idaho (M), Iowa, Montana, Nevada, Oregon (M), Utah
Idaho (M), Iowa, Montana, Nevada, Oregon (M), Utah 11 pm ET: California, Idaho (P), Oregon (P), Washington
California, Idaho (P), Oregon (P), Washington Midnight ET: Alaska (Alaska time region), Hawaii
Alaska (Alaska time region), Hawaii 1 am ET: Alaska (Hawaii-Aleutian time region)
Alphabetical listing
And in case you’re just looking for your state, here’s each state and its poll closing times, in alphabetical order.
Alabama: 8 pm ET (7 pm local)
Alaska: Midnight ET (A), 1 am ET (H); 8 pm local
Arizona: 9 pm ET (7 pm local)
Arkansas: 8:30 pm ET (7:30 pm local)
California: 11 pm ET (8 pm local)
Colorado: 9 pm ET (7 pm local)
Connecticut: 8 pm ET/local
Delaware: 8 pm ET/local
District of Columbia: 8 pm ET/local
Florida: 7 pm ET (E), 8 pm ET (C); 7 pm local
Georgia: 7 pm ET/local
Hawaii: 12 am ET (7 pm local)
Idaho: 10 pm ET (M), 11 pm ET (P); 8 pm local
Illinois: 8 pm ET (7 pm local)
Indiana: 6 pm ET (E), 7 pm ET (C); 6 pm local
Iowa: 10 pm ET (9 pm local)
Kansas: 8 pm ET (C), 9 pm ET (M); 7 pm local
Kentucky: 6 pm ET (E), 7 pm ET (C); 6 pm local
Louisiana: 9 pm ET (8 pm local)
Maine: 8 pm ET/local
Maryland: 8 pm ET/local
Massachusetts: 8 pm/local
Michigan: 8 pm ET (E), 9 pm ET (C); 8 pm local
Minnesota: 9 pm ET (8 pm local)
Mississippi: 8 pm ET (7 pm local)
Missouri: 8 pm ET (7 pm local)
Montana: 10 pm ET (8 pm local)
Nebraska: 9 pm ET (8 pm local for CT, 7 pm local for MT)
Nevada: 10 pm ET (7 pm local)
New Hampshire: 7 or 8 pm ET/local (varies by municipality)
New Jersey: 8 pm ET/local
New Mexico: 9 pm ET (7 pm local)
New York: 9 pm ET/local
North Carolina: 7:30 pm ET/local
North Dakota: 8 pm ET (C), 9 pm ET (M); 7 pm local
Ohio: 7:30 pm ET/local
Oklahoma: 8 pm ET (7 pm local)
Oregon: 10 pm ET (M), 11 pm ET (P); 8 pm local
Pennsylvania: 8 pm ET/local
Rhode Island: 8 pm ET/local
South Carolina: 7 pm ET/local
South Dakota: 8 pm ET (C), 9 pm ET (M); 7 pm local
Tennessee: 8 pm ET (8 pm local for ET, 7 pm local for CT)
Texas: 8 pm ET (C), 9 pm ET (M); 7 pm local
Utah: 10 pm ET (8 pm local)
Vermont: 7 pm ET/local
Virginia: 7 pm ET/local
Washington: 11 pm ET (8 pm local)
West Virginia: 7:30 pm ET/local
Wisconsin: 9 pm ET (8 pm local)
Wyoming: 9 pm ET (7 pm local)


vox--2020-11-03--Know your rights: The biggest threat to voting is not knowing the rules

Most Americans are going to have a very uneventful voting experience .
You ’ ll wait in line for less than half an hour and vote without any real disturbance .
Maybe you ’ ve already mailed in your ballot or are planning to drop it off .
( Reminder : It ’ s too late to safely mail in your ballot in almost every single state . )
The news is full of stories about the threat of voter suppression .
From stories about long lines in Georgia and New York to President Donald Trump ’ s repeated comments @ @ @ @ @ @ @ polls and “ watch very carefully , ” Americans are being inundated with warnings about attacks on voting rights .
And it ’ s true that there are places where it ’ s harder to vote and that various lawsuits are making their way through the courts that could restrict voting access .
In some cases , the deterrents may be extreme : As my colleague Matthew Yglesias reported , “ Police officers in Graham , North Carolina , used pepper spray on a peaceful crowd participating in a Black Lives Matter ‘ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Witnesses in North Carolina reported gas was turned on a crowd including children and the elderly.
” The most subtly effective form of voter suppression depresses turnout through apathy and fear But of real concern , too , is that voters consuming this information are overrating the likelihood of experiencing threats at the polls and underrating less scary ( and more insidious ) things they could face .
None of this is to wave away the fact that there are real threats to democracy , but the most subtly effective form of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ fear .
If voters believe it ’ s too difficult to vote , that they ’ re not eligible even if they are , or that they ’ ll face undue pressure at the ballot box because of events that are unlikely to affect them , that ’ s a win for people who don ’ t want you to vote .
And they didn ’ t even have to put in the effort to actually pass a law or show up with firearms at your polling location .
They just had to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ director of the Brennan Center ’ s Voting Rights and Elections Program , told me a story from her law school days : “ I will never forget when I was a law student and I was trying to register people to vote someone would say , ‘ No , I can ’ t register , I ’ m on probation.
’ ” But at that time , people on probation weren ’ t restricted from voting .
“ I was just upset and shocked that people would be wrong about something like @ @ @ @ @ @ @ protect your rights is to be prepared .
You need to know what is required in your state and what legal protections you have .
Vox talked to voting rights experts about what voters should be prepared for at the polls and how to respond in the unlikely case something untoward happens .
One thing up front : If you need assistance for any reason before or during voting , you should call 1-866-OUR-VOTE ( 866-687-8683 ) , a national nonpartisan election protection hotline .
( And to ease another fear : Voting @ @ @ @ @ @ @ as safe as going to the grocery store . )
“ For most people , the biggest barrier is knowing what the rules are , ” Deuel Ross , senior counsel at the NAACP Legal Defense and Educational Fund , told Vox .
“ Depending on the state you live in , voting is difficult.
” Ross urges voters to double-check your polling place and poll closing times , and to make sure you know what identification is needed before you head to the polls .
He pointed us to the National Conference @ @ @ @ @ @ @ which has a handy map showing exactly what ID your state requires .
In some states , you may be entitled to some paid time off from work to vote .
And remember , if you stay in line when the polls close , you should still be able to cast your vote .
Molly McGrath , voting rights campaign strategist at the American Civil Liberties Union ( ACLU ) , pointed Vox to aclu.org/voter , a site that outlines the state-by-state requirements and processes for voting .
Know your state ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ restrict various forms of expression in an effort to maintain order and efficiency at the polls .
It ’ s unlikely that these rules would be enforced in a way that could undermine your ability to cast a ballot , but violating them might mean a bit of a headache ( whether it ’ s a fine or a request that you return wearing something else ) .
With the rise of the cellphone camera came the invention of the ballot selfie , but the law is still catching up .
Vox has @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the practice , but at least 14 states consider it illegal to take a photo of your ballot and allow others to see it .
As Terry Nguyen has reported for Vox , be careful what you wear when you show up to vote : Generally , Nguyen reports , if you ’ re not wearing something that explicitly indicates a vote for a candidate ( like a MAGA hat or a Biden sweatshirt ) you should be fine .
If you feel the rules aren ’ t being fairly applied to you @ @ @ @ @ @ @ from casting your ballot , call the voting protection hotline to get assistance .
Every American has federal voting rights protections , thanks to the 1965 Voting Rights Act ( VRA ) and the 1990 Americans with Disabilities Act ( ADA ) .
The VRA includes protection from racial discrimination at the polls and bans on literacy tests .
Ross explains that , over the years , while the use of discriminatory tactics like poll taxes and literacy tests has waned , VRA protections have been enforced in response to voter ID laws @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to have “ discriminatory effects on Black and Latinx voters ” and therefore violate the VRA .
The law also requires that any voter requesting assistance due to blindness , disability , or illiteracy must be given assistance and requires that voters have discretion in picking who they want to help them .
There are specific counties , outlined in the VRA , that are required to provide assistance in different languages .
The Elections Assistance Commission has outlined them all ; check your county ’ s requirements here .
If your county @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , call the voter protection hotline in your preferred language : Voters with disabilities frequently face difficulties when voting or registering to vote .
According to Syracuse University ’ s Burton Blatt Institute , the 1984 Voting Accessibility for the Elderly and Handicapped Act “ required polling places in federal elections to be physically accessible to people with disabilities , and if no accessible location is available , an alternative method of casting a ballot on Election Day must be provided.
” Six years later , the ADA “ extended protections to state @ @ @ @ @ @ @ requirements that polling places must meet in order to be deemed accessible under the ADA , yet in 2016 “ two-thirds of 137 polling spaces inspected ... had at least one impediment to people with disabilities.
” For people with cognitive disabilities , the ACLU affirms that they “ can not be turned away from the polls because a poll worker thinks they are not ‘ qualified ’ to vote.
” The 2002 Help America Vote Act ensures voters have the right to cast a provisional ballot .
Ross told Vox that if @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the official should offer you a provisional ballot .
Before you cast a provisional ballot , make sure you aren ’ t able to cast a regular one .
The ACLU has a step-by-step guide that will help you navigate the process in real time .
If you end up casting a provisional ballot , the NCSL details each state ’ s process and the most likely reasons your ballot could be rejected : If you cast a provisional ballot , each state is required to give you either a toll-free number or @ @ @ @ @ @ @ see if your ballot was counted and , if not , the reason why .
Voter intimidation is illegal .
The Voting Rights Act and various state statutes ban individuals from threatening or coercing you at the polls or while registering to vote .
Intimidation can come in many forms .
Georgetown University ’ s Institute for Constitutional Advocacy and Protection lists several behaviors that would “ likely constitute illegal voter intimidation ” including : If you see any of these behaviors , document what you ’ re witnessing and contact your local @ @ @ @ @ @ @ protection hotline .
“ You have the right to vote .
Period , ” says McGrath .
“ And there are people to help you cast your ballot if you need help .
”

Don’t panic.
Most Americans are going to have a very uneventful voting experience. You’ll wait in line for less than half an hour and vote without any real disturbance. Maybe you’ve already mailed in your ballot or are planning to drop it off. (Reminder: It’s too late to safely mail in your ballot in almost every single state.)
The news is full of stories about the threat of voter suppression. From stories about long lines in Georgia and New York to President Donald Trump’s repeated comments directing his supporters to go to the polls and “watch very carefully,” Americans are being inundated with warnings about attacks on voting rights. And it’s true that there are places where it’s harder to vote and that various lawsuits are making their way through the courts that could restrict voting access.
In some cases, the deterrents may be extreme: As my colleague Matthew Yglesias reported, “Police officers in Graham, North Carolina, used pepper spray on a peaceful crowd participating in a Black Lives Matter ‘march to the polls’ event Saturday. Witnesses in North Carolina reported gas was turned on a crowd including children and the elderly.”
The most subtly effective form of voter suppression depresses turnout through apathy and fear
But of real concern, too, is that voters consuming this information are overrating the likelihood of experiencing threats at the polls and underrating less scary (and more insidious) things they could face. None of this is to wave away the fact that there are real threats to democracy, but the most subtly effective form of voter suppression depresses turnout through apathy and fear.
If voters believe it’s too difficult to vote, that they’re not eligible even if they are, or that they’ll face undue pressure at the ballot box because of events that are unlikely to affect them, that’s a win for people who don’t want you to vote. And they didn’t even have to put in the effort to actually pass a law or show up with firearms at your polling location. They just had to scare you.
Myrna Pérez, the director of the Brennan Center’s Voting Rights and Elections Program, told me a story from her law school days: “I will never forget when I was a law student and I was trying to register people to vote someone would say, ‘No, I can’t register, I’m on probation.’” But at that time, people on probation weren’t restricted from voting. “I was just upset and shocked that people would be wrong about something like that.”
So the best way to protect your rights is to be prepared. You need to know what is required in your state and what legal protections you have. Vox talked to voting rights experts about what voters should be prepared for at the polls and how to respond in the unlikely case something untoward happens. One thing up front: If you need assistance for any reason before or during voting, you should call 1-866-OUR-VOTE (866-687-8683), a national nonpartisan election protection hotline. (And to ease another fear: Voting in person in the pandemic is about as safe as going to the grocery store.)
Know your state’s voting requirements
“For most people, the biggest barrier is knowing what the rules are,” Deuel Ross, senior counsel at the NAACP Legal Defense and Educational Fund, told Vox. “Depending on the state you live in, voting is difficult.”
Ross urges voters to double-check your polling place and poll closing times, and to make sure you know what identification is needed before you head to the polls. He pointed us to the National Conference of State Legislatures (NCSL), which has a handy map showing exactly what ID your state requires.
In some states, you may be entitled to some paid time off from work to vote. And remember, if you stay in line when the polls close, you should still be able to cast your vote.
Molly McGrath, voting rights campaign strategist at the American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU), pointed Vox to aclu.org/voter, a site that outlines the state-by-state requirements and processes for voting.
Know your state’s laws restricting freedom of expression
Many states restrict various forms of expression in an effort to maintain order and efficiency at the polls. It’s unlikely that these rules would be enforced in a way that could undermine your ability to cast a ballot, but violating them might mean a bit of a headache (whether it’s a fine or a request that you return wearing something else).
With the rise of the cellphone camera came the invention of the ballot selfie, but the law is still catching up. Vox has a state-by-state guide for which states restrict the practice, but at least 14 states consider it illegal to take a photo of your ballot and allow others to see it.
As Terry Nguyen has reported for Vox, be careful what you wear when you show up to vote:
Most states have laws that prohibit “electioneering,” or engaging in activities that support a political candidate or party near polling places. Thus, wearing a political shirt is interpreted as a political act, and could prevent you from casting your ballot that day. ... The Washington Post reported that some voters in Georgia and Tennessee have been challenged by poll workers for wearing Black Lives Matter apparel to vote early. ... And while poll workers are expected to be nonpartisan, there could be inconsistencies as to what counts as “political” among these volunteers, who only receive brief training.
Generally, Nguyen reports, if you’re not wearing something that explicitly indicates a vote for a candidate (like a MAGA hat or a Biden sweatshirt) you should be fine. If you feel the rules aren’t being fairly applied to you and that you’re being restricted from casting your ballot, call the voting protection hotline to get assistance.
Federal voting rights protections
Every American has federal voting rights protections, thanks to the 1965 Voting Rights Act (VRA) and the 1990 Americans with Disabilities Act (ADA).
The VRA includes protection from racial discrimination at the polls and bans on literacy tests. Ross explains that, over the years, while the use of discriminatory tactics like poll taxes and literacy tests has waned, VRA protections have been enforced in response to voter ID laws and witness requirements which have been shown to have “discriminatory effects on Black and Latinx voters” and therefore violate the VRA.
The law also requires that any voter requesting assistance due to blindness, disability, or illiteracy must be given assistance and requires that voters have discretion in picking who they want to help them.
There are specific counties, outlined in the VRA, that are required to provide assistance in different languages. The Elections Assistance Commission has outlined them all; check your county’s requirements here. If your county does not have the assistance you need, call the voter protection hotline in your preferred language:
Spanish: 1-888-VE-Y-VOTA / 1-888-839-8682
Arabic: 1-844-YALLA-US / 1-844-925-5287
English: 1-866-OUR-VOTE / 1-866-687-8683
Bengali, Cantonese, Hindi, Urdu, Korean, Mandarin, Tagalog, Vietnamese: 1-888-API-VOTE / 1-888-274-8683
Voters with disabilities frequently face difficulties when voting or registering to vote. According to Syracuse University’s Burton Blatt Institute, the 1984 Voting Accessibility for the Elderly and Handicapped Act “required polling places in federal elections to be physically accessible to people with disabilities, and if no accessible location is available, an alternative method of casting a ballot on Election Day must be provided.” Six years later, the ADA “extended protections to state and local elections.” There are specific requirements that polling places must meet in order to be deemed accessible under the ADA, yet in 2016 “two-thirds of 137 polling spaces inspected ... had at least one impediment to people with disabilities.”
For people with cognitive disabilities, the ACLU affirms that they “cannot be turned away from the polls because a poll worker thinks they are not ‘qualified’ to vote.”
Provisional ballots
The 2002 Help America Vote Act ensures voters have the right to cast a provisional ballot. Ross told Vox that if your registration or identification is challenged, the official should offer you a provisional ballot. Before you cast a provisional ballot, make sure you aren’t able to cast a regular one. The ACLU has a step-by-step guide that will help you navigate the process in real time.
If you end up casting a provisional ballot, the NCSL details each state’s process and the most likely reasons your ballot could be rejected:
(1) the voter was not registered; (2) the voter cast a provisional ballot in the wrong jurisdiction; (3) the vote was cast in the wrong precinct; (4) the voter lacked required ID or did not provide the proper ID within the allotted time after Election Day as described above; (5) the provisional ballot was incomplete, or the ballot or envelope was illegible; (6) the voter had already voted in that election; or (7) there was no signature on the provisional ballot or the ballot envelope.
If you cast a provisional ballot, each state is required to give you either a toll-free number or a website where you can check to see if your ballot was counted and, if not, the reason why.
Voter intimidation
Voter intimidation is illegal. The Voting Rights Act and various state statutes ban individuals from threatening or coercing you at the polls or while registering to vote.
Intimidation can come in many forms. Georgetown University’s Institute for Constitutional Advocacy and Protection lists several behaviors that would “likely constitute illegal voter intimidation” including:
Violent behavior inside or outside the polling site
Confronting voters while wearing military-style or official-looking uniforms
Brandishing firearms or the intimidating display of firearms
Disrupting voting lines or blocking the entrance to the polling place
Following voters to, from, or within the polling place
Verbal threats of violence
Aggressively approaching voters’ vehicles or writing down voters’ license plate numbers
Harassing voters, aggressively questioning them about their qualifications to vote
If you see any of these behaviors, document what you’re witnessing and contact your local election officials as well as the voter protection hotline.
“You have the right to vote. Period,” says McGrath. “And there are people to help you cast your ballot if you need help.”


vox--2020-11-05--Holiday shopping as we know it is over — just ask seasonal workers

Holiday hiring events for malls used to be a big deal , with lines rivaling those for jaw-dropping Black Friday electronic deals .
Anchor retailers and specialty stores held huge in-person hiring events as early as September , heralding the start of the busiest , most exciting part of the retail year .
This season , don ’ t expect big spikes in hiring for mall Santas ( who may be socially distanced in plexiglass snow domes ) , gift wrappers , or additional staff to work the aisles on Black Friday .
As the pandemic continues and shoppers mostly @ @ @ @ @ @ @ be a gift for e-commerce as retailers scramble to adjust inventory and schedules to find some bright spots amid spending uncertainty .
As the ongoing shift online accelerates this year , its impact will be magnified in the job market .
According to Andrew Chamberlain , chief economist of the jobs site Glassdoor , the site has seen a sharp rise in interest for jobs in the warehouse sector , 210 percent more than last year , one of many indications that , in 2020 , often-temporary seasonal hiring signifies something more permanent @ @ @ @ @ @ @ looking different , ” he says .
“ This is an example where a pandemic will lead to a massive shift in how we spend.
” Getting a part-time gig folding sweaters at the Gap or being an elf for a fake North Pole display has long been a tradition during the busy holiday season , an important way to make a few extra dollars during an expensive time of the year , especially for students and seniors .
In 2018 , retailers added roughly 625,600 temp jobs .
Last year , the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , with companies looking to fill only 590,000 positions .
This year , recruiting firm Challenger , Gray & Christmas says companies have announced just 378,200 positions as of mid-October .
Glassdoor ’ s Chamberlain says that an analysis of the site ’ s roughly 6 million holiday and seasonal job postings shows listings are down 8 percent over last year , which is actually better than the overall 16 percent drop in postings across all industries .
There ’ s a bump this winter , just not as big as in years @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of over as an idea .
...
It ’ s basically Black Fall.
” Analysts believe 2020 will radically upend that model , perhaps for good .
In-person retail , already restricted due to health precautions and wary customers eyeing a coming third wave of the coronavirus , is a shadow of its usual self .
A National Retail Federation survey of 54 retailers found that 96 percent expect more online sales this year , 61 percent plan to stock less in-store merchandise , and half likely won ’ t hire extra in-store @ @ @ @ @ @ @ at Forrester , says one of the only bright spots this year , when a record-breaking 1 in 5 retail dollars was spent online , has been essential retail , such as grocery and pharmacy .
Even big holiday shopping draws like toys have migrated online .
Retailers such as Walmart and Target will be spreading out Black Friday events to avoid drawing large crowds ( some promotions have already started ) .
“ Black Friday is kind of over as an idea , ” says Zachary Rogers , an assistant professor of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ who previously worked at an Amazon subsidiary .
“ Prime Day was October , Black Friday and Cyber Monday in November , holidays in December .
It ’ s basically Black Fall.
” Holiday shopping as a whole won ’ t have the same meaning this year or for many years in the future , says Ashwani Monga , a marketing professor at Rutgers University who specializes in consumer psychology ; with the retail industry in tatters , it ’ s unlikely to represent the break-even point for businesses ( when ledgers go @ @ @ @ @ @ @ optimistic forecasts that families will want to maintain the holiday tradition of a visit to the mall may underestimate the desire to cut or consolidate trips , not to mention the specter of more restrictions or shutdowns .
“ Even if stores do open , people will be reluctant to go out and have fun or splurge as if the last few months didn ’ t happen , ” he says .
“ Shopping is a way to connect and do something for yourself , and that habit has changed during this year @ @ @ @ @ @ @ part of our culture , and this year has changed culture itself.
” The significant shift in the seasonal employment picture doesn ’ t show a temporary break with tradition ; it ’ s more likely evidence of the continuing , radical restructuring of the economy away from in-person retail .
The pandemic has pushed many shoppers who were e-commerce holdouts to adopt online shopping , Monga says , and consumer inertia is hard to reverse .
“ If consumers aren ’ t spending , retailers don ’ t have cash on hand @ @ @ @ @ @ @ vicious cycle where there ’ s less employment , fewer profits , and the economic engine of stores just doesn ’ t grow , ” Monga says .
“ The whole ecosystem of retail is disrupted.
” “ Shopping is a part of our culture , and this year has changed culture itself ” It ’ s also strained the warehouse and logistics industry currently struggling to meet surging holiday demand that will likely become a permanent expansion of e-commerce capacity .
The industry hit a record 1.25 million employees this September , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The Logistics Managers ’ Index , an industry report compiled by Rogers looking at demand and capacity , predicts record-high levels of e-commerce activity this season ; Q4 activity will be up 50 percent compared to last year , a huge leap from pre-pandemic predictions of a 13 percent jump .
Karl Siebrecht , CEO of Flexe , a company that provides temporary warehouse space to retailers , says there ’ s a huge hiring problem in e-commerce in anticipation of fourth-quarter delivery spikes ( Amazon announced plans to hire 100,000 more seasonal @ @ @ @ @ @ @ $ 1,000 bonuses ) .
“ We ’ re already running hot , How do we layer on the fourth-quarter peak ?
” Siebrecht says .
“ Competition for labor is the biggest issue.
” Filling jobs at sites typically located away from population centers is already a challenge .
A recent report by Daniel Schneider and Kristen Harknett , sociologists who have been studying retail and service-sector workers , found that “ Walmart , Amazon , and UPS lag in terms of cleaning , gloves , and masks ” for employees , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ crowded over the coming months , infection risks will rise .
Valeria ( who prefers not to use her real name ) , 59 , works at a warehouse in Elizabeth , New Jersey , that packages and ships cosmetics and hand sanitizer .
She says that as the holidays approach , management has added more and more workers ; it ’ s the busiest she ’ s seen since she began working at the company four years ago .
Workers are provided with hand sanitizer , masks , and gloves , but @ @ @ @ @ @ @ they just cram the lines tighter and tighter .
“ Right now , a few people are sick , ” she said via a translator .
“ The company told them to get tests and not come back until they are negative .
They ’ re operating like every product is essential , but only the hand sanitizer is .
We all want to be beautiful and we ’ re in difficult times .
I only work because I have to , if not I ’ d stay at home , I ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ sick.
” Beth Gutelius , an academic and researcher who studies the changing nature of work , says a simple calculus — more temporary workers being added to the same fixed warehouse space — raises the risk of safety issues , Covid-19 spread , and burnout ( and Amazon has been less than transparent about these issues throughout the last six months ) .
“ In the end , you have to throw more workers at the problem of e-commerce fulfillment , and they ’ ve raised very serious issues about health and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ There ’ s lots of physical and mental strain on workers ’ bodies when they ’ re handling work that quickly.
” According to a survey of industry operators conducted by Flexe , 65 percent said labor shortages were impacting their business and 47 percent have increased wages to be more competitive .
Amazon ’ s and Walmart ’ s big announcements earlier this year that they would add hundreds of thousands of jobs and pay a few extra dollars an hour have rippled through an industry seeking more and more capacity .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ the winter surge — typically the season when workers face weeks with additional overtime and higher-than-normal rates of on-the-job injuries and stress — but for next year .
E-commerce is racing to adjust to unforeseen circumstances , with a predicted “ shipageddon ” this year leading analysts to suggest hot items will disappear early and companies will plead with consumers to order as early as possible .
The sector is clearly dealing with the downsides of unexpected demand , not painful contraction , often turning to temporary employees and hiring agencies .
“ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ how Amazon is going to do it this year , ” says Rogers .
“ That ’ s why they shifted Prime Day to October .
The transportation part of this will be really tough .
They ’ ll do whatever they can and everyone else will try to keep up.
” Shipping is not the only concern .
There ’ s also the problem of returns , which Rogers says are “ two to three times more for e-commerce purchases versus brick and mortar , depending on the product.
” That adds @ @ @ @ @ @ @ an additional billion dollars of returns this year , and they ’ re going to need to process this stuff .
There ’ s a wave coming , and I ’ m very interested to see what happens between late November and early January.
” It may seem counterintuitive that in the midst of severe economic shock , huge corporations such as Amazon and Walmart would struggle to find workers .
But the labor supply situation is incredibly unorthodox , says Chamberlain .
There ’ s a significant compositional shift away from traditional @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the counter at Sephora — and toward warehouses and delivery gigs .
And many workers are simply sitting this season out ; whether they ’ re worried about getting sick , the added pressure of handling child care , or waiting out a furlough , many people are simply in limbo , Chamberlain has found .
Monga points to two indexes of consumer activity and attitudes as red lights for retail : the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index ( down nearly 20 percent since last December ) and the savings rate ( currently double @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Americans are , overall , wary and worried , and even those who are employed are holding onto a portion of their potential disposable income .
The few bright spots , such as outdoor retailer REI , can ’ t overcome sharp drops in clothing purchases .
This dismal holiday hiring season will just lock in structural shifts decimating retail , especially as warehouse operators adopt robotics and other means of increasing efficiency .
“ Automation and rising productivity are ways to do more with less , ” says Chamberlain .
“ By @ @ @ @ @ @ @ people .
Wages are high .
If sales double in traditional retail , you may need to double your number of workers .
But for Amazon and Walmart , they may need just 10 percent more people to handle that rush.
” Rogers points to a newly reopened Macy ’ s facility in Littleton , Colorado , as the future of retail employment .
This new omni service center features packing , delivery , and pick-up services , but the so-called dark store isn ’ t open for the public to enter and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s is hiring and staffing for the holidays , but the jobs it ’ s offering are becoming indistinguishable from the gigs found in the general logistics and warehouse industry .
Even many of the seasonal retail gigs that remain are starting to look more and more like those found in warehouses .
“ They ’ re doing the same job as an Amazon picker , but in a store , ” says Gutelius .
“ The lines are getting very blurry .
”

Holiday hiring events for malls used to be a big deal, with lines rivaling those for jaw-dropping Black Friday electronic deals. Anchor retailers and specialty stores held huge in-person hiring events as early as September, heralding the start of the busiest, most exciting part of the retail year. But this season, don’t expect big spikes in hiring for mall Santas (who may be socially distanced in plexiglass snow domes), gift wrappers, or additional staff to work the aisles on Black Friday.
As the Covid-19 pandemic enters a dangerous spike nationwide and shoppers mostly stay home, the holiday season will be a gift for e-commerce as retailers scramble to adjust inventory and schedules to find some bright spots amid spending uncertainty. As the ongoing shift online accelerates this year, its impact will be magnified in the job market. According to Andrew Chamberlain, chief economist of the jobs site Glassdoor, the site has seen a sharp rise in interest for jobs in the warehouse sector, 210 percent more than last year — one of many indications that, in 2020, often-temporary seasonal hiring signifies something more permanent.
“Economies usually leave a recession looking different,” he says. “This is an example where a pandemic will lead to a massive shift in how we spend.”
Getting a part-time gig folding sweaters at the Gap or being an elf for a fake North Pole display has long been a tradition during the busy holiday season, an important way to make a few extra dollars during an expensive time of the year, especially for students and seniors. In 2018, retailers added roughly 625,600 temp jobs. Last year, the seasonal hiring spree slowed down a bit, with companies looking to fill only 590,000 positions. This year, recruiting firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas says companies have announced just 378,200 positions as of mid-October.
Glassdoor’s Chamberlain says that an analysis of the site’s roughly 6 million holiday and seasonal job postings shows listings are down 8 percent over last year, which is actually better than the overall 16 percent drop in postings across all industries. There’s a bump this winter, just not as big as in years past.
“Black Friday is kind of over as an idea. ... It’s basically Black Fall.”
Analysts believe 2020 will radically upend that model, perhaps for good. In-person retail, already restricted due to health precautions and wary customers eyeing the third wave of the coronavirus, is a shadow of its usual self. A National Retail Federation survey of 54 retailers found that 96 percent expect more online sales this year, 61 percent plan to stock less in-store merchandise, and half likely won’t hire extra in-store staff.
Sucharita Kodali, retail analyst at Forrester, says one of the only bright spots this year, when a record-breaking 1 in 5 retail dollars was spent online, has been essential retail, such as grocery and pharmacy. Even big holiday shopping draws like toys have migrated online. Retailers such as Walmart and Target have been spreading out Black Friday events to avoid drawing large crowds, though a PriceWaterhouseCoopers consumer survey found that certain areas and demographics still plan to shop in person; 76 percent of those who will venture into stores are in the suburbs, and 42 percent are from the South.
“Black Friday is kind of over as an idea,” says Zachary Rogers, an assistant professor of supply chain management at Colorado State University who previously worked at an Amazon subsidiary. “Prime Day was October, Black Friday and Cyber Monday in November, holidays in December. It’s basically Black Fall.”
Holiday shopping as a whole won’t have the same meaning this year, or for many years in the future, says Ashwani Monga, a marketing professor at Rutgers University who specializes in consumer psychology; with the retail industry in tatters, it’s unlikely to represent the breakeven point for businesses (when ledgers go from red to black). And optimistic forecasts that families will want to maintain the holiday tradition of a visit to the mall may underestimate the desire to cut or consolidate trips, not to mention the specter of more restrictions or shutdowns.
“Even if stores do open, people will be reluctant to go out and have fun or splurge as if the last few months didn’t happen,” he says. “Shopping is a way to connect and do something for yourself, and that habit has changed during this year’s disruption. Shopping is a part of our culture, and this year has changed culture itself.”
The significant shift in the seasonal employment picture doesn’t show a temporary break with tradition; it’s more evidence of the continuing, radical restructuring of the economy away from in-person retail. The pandemic has pushed many shoppers who were e-commerce holdouts to adopt online shopping, Monga says, and consumer inertia is hard to reverse.
“If consumers aren’t spending, retailers don’t have cash on hand to hire people, which creates a vicious cycle where there’s less employment, fewer profits, and the economic engine of stores just doesn’t grow,” Monga says. “The whole ecosystem of retail is disrupted.”
“Shopping is a part of our culture, and this year has changed culture itself”
It’s also strained the warehouse and logistics industry, which is currently struggling to meet surging holiday demand that seems likely to become a permanent expansion of e-commerce capacity, as fears of the latest wave of Covid-19 infections push more shopping online, further straining the system. The industry hit a record 1.25 million employees in September, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The Logistics Managers’ Index, an industry report looking at demand and capacity compiled by Rogers, predicts record-high levels of e-commerce activity this season; Q4 activity will be up 50 percent compared to last year, a 13 percent jump from pre-pandemic predictions.
Karl Siebrecht, CEO of Flexe, a company that provides temporary warehouse space to retailers, says there’s a huge hiring problem in e-commerce in anticipation of fourth-quarter delivery spikes (Amazon announced plans to hire 100,000 more seasonal workers in September and is offering some $1,000 bonuses).
“We’re already running hot, how do we layer on the fourth-quarter peak?” Siebrecht says. “Competition for labor is the biggest issue.”
Filling jobs at sites typically located away from population centers is already a challenge. A recent report by Daniel Schneider and Kristen Harknett, sociologists who have been studying retail and service sector workers, found that “Walmart, Amazon, and UPS lag in terms of cleaning, gloves, and masks” for employees, exacerbating worries that as warehouses get more crowded over the coming months, infection risks will increase.
Valeria (who prefers not to use her real name), 59, works at a warehouse in Elizabeth, New Jersey, that packages and ships cosmetics and hand sanitizer. She says that as the holidays approach, management has added more and more workers; it’s the busiest she’s seen it since she began working at the company four years ago. Workers are provided with hand sanitizer, masks, and gloves, but there’s no social distancing; they just cram the lines tighter and tighter.
“Right now, a few people are sick,” she said via a translator. “The company told them to get tests and not come back until they are negative. They’re operating like every product is essential, but only the hand sanitizer is. We all want to be beautiful and we’re in difficult times. I only work because I have to, if not I’d stay at home, I’m scared all the time of being sick.”
Beth Gutelius, an academic and researcher at the Center for Urban Economic Development who studies the changing nature of work, says a simple calculus — more temporary workers being added to the same fixed warehouse space — raises the risk of safety issues, Covid-19 spread, and burnout (and Amazon has been less than transparent about these issues throughout the last six months). The rhetoric of the heroism of essential workers, including warehouse and retail workers, is ringing hollow at this point, she says.
“In the end, you have to throw more workers at the problem of e-commerce fulfillment, and they’ve raised very serious issues about health and safety,” she says. “There’s lots of physical and mental strain on workers’ bodies when they’re handling work that quickly. Warehouse workers, and increasingly retail workers as more companies adopt ship-from-store e-commerce fulfillment strategies, help the rest of us practice social distancing, but this dynamic is possible only because workers are risking their own well-being, and not necessarily by choice.”
According to a survey of industry operators conducted by Flexe, 65 percent said labor shortages were impacting their business and 47 percent have increased wages to be more competitive. Amazon’s and Walmart’s big announcements earlier this year that they would add hundreds of thousands of jobs and pay a few extra dollars an hour have rippled through an industry seeking greater capacity. And it’s not just for the winter surge — typically the season when workers face weeks with additional overtime and higher-than-normal rates of on-the-job injuries and stress — but for next year.
E-commerce is racing to adjust to unforeseen circumstances, with a predicted “shipageddon” this year leading analysts to suggest hot items will disappear early and companies will plead with consumers to order as early as possible. In China this year, the Singles Day holiday netted $75 billion in sales, nearly double the amount last year, which led to packages being piled on the ground near mailboxes and delivery sites. China, generally speaking, has a robust delivery infrastructure. The sector is clearly dealing with the downsides of unexpected demand — not painful contraction — often turning to temporary employees and hiring agencies.
“Honestly, I don’t know how Amazon is going to do it this year,” says Rogers. “That’s why they shifted Prime Day to October. The transportation part of this will be really tough. They’ll do whatever they can and everyone else will try to keep up.”
Shipping is not the only concern. There’s also the problem of returns, which Rogers says are “two to three times more for e-commerce purchases versus brick and mortar, depending on the product.” That adds up: “There will be like an additional billion dollars of returns this year, and they’re going to need to process this stuff. There’s a wave coming, and I’m very interested to see what happens between late November and early January.”
It may seem counterintuitive that in the midst of severe economic shock, huge corporations such as Amazon and Walmart would struggle to find workers. But the labor supply situation is incredibly unorthodox, says Chamberlain. There’s a significant compositional shift away from traditional work — say, a job at the counter at Sephora — and toward warehouses and delivery gigs. And many workers are simply sitting this season out; whether they’re worried about getting sick, the added pressure of handling child care, or waiting out a furlough, many people are simply in limbo, Chamberlain has found.
Monga points to two indexes of consumer activity and attitudes as red lights for retail: the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (down nearly 20 percent since last December) and the savings rate (currently double the typical 6 to 8 percent range). Americans are, overall, wary and worried, and even those who are employed are holding onto a portion of their potential disposable income. The few bright spots, such as outdoor retailer REI, can’t overcome sharp drops in clothing purchases. This dismal holiday hiring season will just lock in structural shifts decimating retail, especially as warehouse operators adopt robotics and other means of increasing efficiency.
“Automation and rising productivity are ways to do more with less,” says Chamberlain. “By far the largest cost in production is people. Wages are high. If sales double in traditional retail, you may need to double your number of workers. But for Amazon and Walmart, they may need just 10 percent more people to handle that rush.”
Rogers points to a newly reopened Macy’s facility in Littleton, Colorado, as the future of retail employment. This new “omni service center” features packing, delivery, and pickup services, but the so-called dark store isn’t open for the public to enter and shop. In effect, Macy’s is hiring and staffing for the holidays, but the jobs it’s offering are becoming indistinguishable from the gigs found in the general logistics and warehouse industry. Even many of the seasonal retail gigs that remain are starting to look more and more like those found in warehouses.
“They’re doing the same job as an Amazon picker, but in a store,” says Gutelius. “The lines are getting very blurry.”


vox--2020-11-05--Vox live results: Joe Biden’s path to victory widens

We should get a clearer picture of the results of the 2020 presidential election between President Donald Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden on Thursday , two days after Election Day .
Trump racked up early victories in Florida , Ohio , and Iowa .
But Biden appears to have more paths to 270 Electoral College votes than the president does .
Biden has won two Midwest states that are likely to prove pivotal , Michigan and Wisconsin , and is now close to reaching enough electoral votes to win overall .
Pennsylvania , meanwhile , is still counting @ @ @ @ @ @ @ victory .
There are other positive signs for Biden : He is ahead in Nevada and Arizona , although the race has tightened in Arizona .
Nevada is expected to announce more results on Thursday mid-day , while Arizona continues to count outstanding absentee ballots in Maricopa County .
Votes are also still being counted in Georgia and North Carolina , and these states could end up in Biden ’ s column .
A win in two of these states would make him the next president , even without Pennsylvania .
Based on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , saying on Wednesday afternoon , “ I am here to report when the count is finished , we believe we will be the winners.
” Trump , however , has falsely claimed victory — early Wednesday morning , he said he wants “ all voting to stop ” and will take the matter to the Supreme Court .
Of course , by that time , voting had been stopped for hours — and continuing to count those votes is a legal and necessary part of the process .
Nevertheless , he spent @ @ @ @ @ @ @ officials in swing states who ’ ve stated commitments to continuing the count , as well sharing conspiracy theories about improper ballot processing .
That vote counting is taking some time shouldn ’ t be surprising : Because of the myriad ways people have cast their ballots this year , it was expected that tallying votes could take longer .
This was partly because far more votes were cast by mail than in past years due to the Covid-19 pandemic .
But it ’ s also because there are simply more votes to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ may have had the highest participation in 120 years .
There ’ s no guarantee when we ’ ll know whether Trump or Biden won the election , but we should have a clearer picture by the end of the day Thursday .
Meanwhile , you can track live results here , powered by our friends at Decision Desk .
Vox also has results pages for some key swing states : Pennsylvania , Nevada , and Georgia .
You can follow Senate live results here and House live results here .
Finally , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ other media outlets ) will be making calls .
How long could it take for us to know who won the election ?
It ’ s tough to know , but it ’ s good to prepare for the possibility that we may not know the result for a little while longer .
Here ’ s why : There are six main battleground states whose voters will likely determine the outcome of the election : Michigan , Pennsylvania , Wisconsin , Florida , Arizona , and North Carolina .
As Vox ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ can be split into two groups — states that were expected to be able to count the vote quickly , and states where it was thought it could take much longer to know the outcome .
Florida , Arizona , and North Carolina fall into the first category .
( Florida and Arizona , in particular , have used vote-by-mail extensively in the past and officials there are familiar with how the system works . )
We already know the results from Florida , which was called relatively early for Trump on Tuesday @ @ @ @ @ @ @ t fully in yet , and we may not know the results from North Carolina until next week , as they still have mail-in ballots to count .
In Pennsylvania , Michigan , and Wisconsin , Republican state legislatures in all three refused to let election officials start processing ballots early ( it should be noted that this isn ’ t a partisan issue everywhere , since Florida , Arizona , and North Carolina also have state legislatures controlled by Republicans ) .
Because of this , counting was expected to take some @ @ @ @ @ @ @ their counts on Wednesday , but Pennsylvania still has many more votes to count .
In Wisconsin , Biden ’ s victory was by a relatively thin margin .
The Trump campaign has announced it will request a recount ( as it can do under the state law ) , but recent recounts have not shifted the result much .
The Trump campaign is also suing to attempt to stop vote counting in Pennsylvania , and to let Republican observers watch over the count .
In the remaining swing states , there is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ appear a closer race for Trump than final totals will reflect .
It ’ s good to keep in mind that it could take many hours — if not days — to count mail-in ballots and get the full picture of who has won .
Counting all the votes is not fraud Heading into the election , it was pretty clear that President Trump was poised to engage in some shenanigans to try to cast doubt on any potential unfavorable outcomes to him , and even potentially falsely claim he ’ d won @ @ @ @ @ @ @ did .
In remarks early Wednesday , Trump said he ’ d already won in Georgia , North Carolina , and Pennsylvania , even though those states have not yet been called .
He said the election reflected “ major fraud in our nation , ” and suggested he will take the matter to the Supreme Court .
Twitter and Facebook wound up having to label his false claims that the election is being “ stolen ” and that no votes can be counted after the polls close .
The Trump campaign ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ continuation of this rhetoric .
To be clear , there is not widespread election fraud going on , nor is the election being stolen from the president .
Candidates can not claim states for themselves , as Trump suggested in a Wednesday tweet .
States are just counting the votes , as they are legally obligated to do .
This isn ’ t to say that Trump still can ’ t win the presidency , or that Biden can ’ t .
Obviously , it would be nice to have more clarity on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ don ’ t , so we have to wait .

Joe Biden has won the presidency.
A clear picture of the results of the 2020 election between Donald Trump and Joe Biden came into view on Friday, days after Election Day. Vox’s partner Decision Desk called the election Friday morning. And on Saturday, CNN, NBC, the Associated Press, and Fox News all called the election for Biden.
Trump racked up early victories in Florida, Ohio, and Iowa, but Biden had more paths to 270 Electoral College votes than the president. Biden won three Midwest states that proved pivotal: Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania — the same ones that helped sink Hillary Clinton’s bid in 2016.
Biden’s other paths were favorable, too: He is ahead in Nevada and Arizona. And Biden has taken a very slim lead over Trump in Georgia as the final votes are tallied.
Based on this outlook, Biden projected optimism, saying on Thursday, “We have no doubt that when the count is finished, Sen. Harris and I will be declared the winners.”
Trump, however, has falsely claimed victory and sought to stop vote counting. He says he will take the matter to the Supreme Court, promising again to do so in a Thursday evening speech.
It’s unlikely he could prevail on that front, however: Continuing to count outstanding votes, even now that the election has been called, is a legal and necessary part of the process. Nevertheless, he spent much of Wednesday and Thursday tweeting attacks against election officials in swing states who’ve stated commitments to continuing the count, as well sharing conspiracy theories about improper ballot processing.
You can follow Senate live results here and House live results here. Finally, here’s how Vox (and other media outlets) will be making calls.
Counting all the votes is not fraud
Heading into the election, it was pretty clear that President Trump was poised to engage in some shenanigans to try to cast doubt on any potential unfavorable outcomes to him, and even potentially falsely claim he’d won. And that’s what he did.
In remarks early Wednesday, Trump said he’d already won in Georgia, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania, even though those states have not yet been called. Saturday, he claimed on Twitter to have won the election. And he’s the election reflected “major fraud in our nation.”
Twitter and Facebook wound up having to label his false claims that the election is being “stolen” and that no votes can be counted after the polls close. The Trump campaign’s lawsuits in multiple states are a continuation of this rhetoric.
To be clear, there is not widespread election fraud going on, nor is the election being stolen from the president. Candidates cannot claim states for themselves, as Trump suggested in a Wednesday tweet. States are just counting the votes, as they are legally obligated to do. And they will continue to do so, tallying provisional ballots and working through mail-in votes until their counts are 100 percent complete.


vox--2020-11-05--2020 House election live results

2020 House election live results

While Democrats aimed to retake the White House and the Senate on Election Day , they are also defending their US House majority in 435 congressional elections across the country .
But the vote count , as in several other races , is coming in slowly — and it could be days or weeks before we know the House ’ s exact makeup .
Democrats appear to have maintained control of the chamber , but with a slimmer majority .
Democrats won the House in the 2018 midterm elections , netting more than 40 seats to regain a sliver of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ control .
Their new majority set about passing a largely symbolic agenda meant to demonstrate how they would govern if they retook the presidency and the Senate ( with voting rights bills and legislation to lower health care costs at the top of the list ) while trying to stave off fights among party members ( Medicare-for-all never got a House vote , but committee hearings were held ) .
The history books will most remember the Democratic House majority of the 116th Congress for impeaching President Donald Trump in December 2019 , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ power of his office to solicit politically damaging information about Joe Biden before the latter won the Democratic presidential nomination .
But now , Democrats are trying to hold on to their House majority with the hopes of winning a House-Senate-president trifecta — and getting a real chance to implement their agenda .
Election forecasters considered Democrats to be heavy favorites to retain control and perhaps even gain seats .
But as votes come in , Democrats appear headed toward a reduced House majority , and a Senate majority looks increasingly unlikely .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ other media outlets ) will be making calls throughout the night and following days .
Vox is carrying live results , powered by our friends at Decision Desk .
You can also follow live results for the presidential election here and Senate races here .
Three key states to watch in the 2020 US House elections There are competitive House races across the country on Tuesday , from first-term Democrats trying to win reelection in Oklahoma and Utah with Trump on the ballot to vulnerable Republicans in Arkansas and Oklahoma hoping the president @ @ @ @ @ @ @ California and New York have a lot of House seats , and therefore a good number of close races .
On the other end of that spectrum , Don Young , Alaska ’ s only at-large representative since 1973 , is facing maybe his most serious reelection challenge to date .
But a handful of presidential swing states will also play an outsized role in the make-up of the House .
Here is a sampling of some of the races we ’ re watching .
Texas : The Cook Political Report put seven @ @ @ @ @ @ @ competitive categories ( Lean Democrat , toss-up , or Lean Republican ) .
Democrats hoped to have a good shot to pick up at least a couple seats .
One race in the 24th District is still close , but they are few other signs of a blue wave in the state .
North Carolina : A state court ruled last year that the Republican state legislature had unconstitutionally gerrymandered North Carolina ’ s congressional districts and ordered new , fairer maps to be drawn .
That put five of the state ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to Cook .
Two of them were vacated by Republican incumbents after the districts were redrawn and are now considered likely Democratic pickups .
But Democrats needed a substantial wave to gain more ground , and potential pick-ups in North Carolina ’ s Eighth , Ninth , and 11th Districts were ultimately called for Republicans .
Iowa : Three of Iowa ’ s four House races were expected to be competitive on election night , according to Cook , thanks to the state ’ s independent redistricting commission that aims to prevent partisan @ @ @ @ @ @ @ but the Iowa Second District seat is still a tight race as votes come in .
Correction , 6:30 pm ET : This post has been updated to accurately reflect poll closing times in Alaska and Hawaii .

Update, November 8, 8:50 pm: Democrats have held on to their majority, with races yet to be called that will determine the exact balance of power.
While Democrats aimed to retake the White House and the Senate on Election Day, they are also defending their US House majority in 435 congressional elections across the country.
But the vote count, as in several other races, is coming in slowly — and it could be days or weeks before we know the House’s exact makeup. Democrats appear to have maintained control of the chamber, but with a slimmer majority.
Democrats won the House in the 2018 midterm elections, netting more than 40 seats to regain a sliver of power after two years of complete Republican control. Their new majority set about passing a largely symbolic agenda meant to demonstrate how they would govern if they retook the presidency and the Senate (with voting rights bills and legislation to lower health care costs at the top of the list) while trying to stave off fights among party members (Medicare-for-all never got a House vote, but committee hearings were held).
The history books will most remember the Democratic House majority of the 116th Congress for impeaching President Donald Trump in December 2019, over his apparent attempts to use the power of his office to solicit politically damaging information about Joe Biden before the latter won the Democratic presidential nomination.
But now, Democrats are trying to hold on to their House majority with the hopes of winning a House-Senate-president trifecta — and getting a real chance to implement their agenda. Election forecasters considered Democrats to be heavy favorites to retain control and perhaps even gain seats. But as votes come in, Democrats appear headed toward a reduced House majority, and a Senate majority looks increasingly unlikely.
Here’s how Vox (and other media outlets) will be making calls throughout the night and following days. Vox is carrying live results, powered by our friends at Decision Desk. You can also follow live results for the presidential election here and Senate races here.
Three key states to watch in the 2020 US House elections
There are competitive House races across the country on Tuesday, from first-term Democrats trying to win reelection in Oklahoma and Utah with Trump on the ballot to vulnerable Republicans in Arkansas and Oklahoma hoping the president can help carry them to victory.
California and New York have a lot of House seats, and therefore a good number of close races. On the other end of that spectrum, Don Young, Alaska’s only at-large representative since 1973, is facing maybe his most serious reelection challenge to date.
But a handful of presidential swing states will also play an outsized role in the make-up of the House. Here is a sampling of some of the races we’re watching.
Texas: The Cook Political Report put seven House seats in Texas in their most competitive categories (Lean Democrat, toss-up, or Lean Republican). Democrats hoped to have a good shot to pick up at least a couple seats. One race in the 24th District is still close, but they are few other signs of a blue wave in the state.
North Carolina: A state court ruled last year that the Republican state legislature had unconstitutionally gerrymandered North Carolina’s congressional districts and ordered new, fairer maps to be drawn. That put five of the state’s 13 districts in play, according to Cook. Two of them were vacated by Republican incumbents after the districts were redrawn and are now considered likely Democratic pickups. But Democrats needed a substantial wave to gain more ground, and potential pick-ups in North Carolina’s Eighth, Ninth, and 11th Districts were ultimately called for Republicans.
Iowa: Three of Iowa’s four House races were expected to be competitive on election night, according to Cook, thanks to the state’s independent redistricting commission that aims to prevent partisan gerrymandering. Two have been called, but the Iowa Second District seat is still a tight race as votes come in.
Correction, 6:30 pm ET: This post has been updated to accurately reflect poll closing times in Alaska and Hawaii.