vox--2020-06-08--Democrats’ sweeping new police reform bill, explained

House and Senate Democrats unveiled a new policing reform bill on Monday in the wake of George Floyd ’ s killing at the hands of a now-former Minneapolis police officer and the weeks of protests against police brutality that followed .
The Justice in Policing Act of 2020 contains a number of measures that make it easier to prosecute police misconduct and demilitarize police departments around the country .
The bill ’ s biggest provision seeks to end qualified immunity , a thorny legal issue that gives police officers and other public officials broad immunity from civil lawsuits .
The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the qualified-immunity doctrine in past rulings , is currently deciding whether to hear arguments next term in a case challenging qualified immunity .
The legislation also incorporates a proposal from Sen. Cory Booker that would create a new national registry to track misconduct as a way to prevent repeat offenders from being rehired at other police departments .
In addition , the bill seeks to ban the use of chokeholds and certain no-knock warrants at the federal level , as well as to incentivize state and local governments to do the same .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ killings of unarmed black people : A no-knock warrant used by police in Kentucky in March ended in the death of Breonna Taylor , a 26-year-old EMT who died after officers broke down her door without warning and fatally shot her .
“ We can not settle for anything less than transformative structural change , ” House Speaker Nancy Pelosi ( D-CA ) said Monday .
“ The martyrdom of George Floyd gave the American experience a moment of national anguish .
… True justice can only be achieved with full comprehensive action @ @ @ @ @ @ @ doing today.
” Pelosi and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer ( D-NY ) unveiled the bill alongside leaders and members of the Congressional Black Caucus , led by Rep. Karen Bass ( D-CA ) .
The Congressional Black Caucus — members of which include prominent African American senators like Booker and Kamala Harris ( D-CA ) — was instrumental in writing the bill .
“ Empathy and sympathy and words of caring for those who have died and suffered is necessary , but it ’ s not enough , ” Booker said Monday @ @ @ @ @ @ @ systems of accountability .
We must pass legislation that makes our common values and our common ideals real in the law of our land.
” While it ’ s unlikely the Republican-led Senate will support the bill in its current form , or that President Donald Trump would sign it into law , the legislation still signals where Democrats want to take criminal justice reform should they win back the White House and Senate in November .
Pelosi also noted that the bill is a “ first step ” and said there is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on the subject of policing reform .
Multiple lawmakers on Monday called the bill “ transformative.
” While the expansive bill doesn ’ t contain any new money for police , it is clearly an attempt to establish federal guidelines for reform rather than defund police departments altogether .
That falls short of what some activists are calling for — and what the Minneapolis City Council is attempting to do .
“ We want to work with our police departments , ” Pelosi said .
“ There are many things we call upon @ @ @ @ @ @ @ mental health issues , policing in schools and the rest — that we could rebalance some of our funding to address some of those issues more directly .
But this isn ’ t about that.
” By and large , the bill would give federal agencies like the Justice Department the ability to hold state and city entities more accountable for police misconduct .
Because so many policies are determined at the local level , though , the legislation faces limitations .
In several points , the bill conditions federal funding on state @ @ @ @ @ @ @ proposes .
Pressure for reforms in state and local governments is crucial : “ Almost all policing is done at the local and state , not federal , level ; out of the nearly 18,000 law enforcement agencies in the US , a dozen or so are federal .
It ’ s at the local and state level , then , where reforms can and should happen , ” Vox ’ s German Lopez previously reported .
With over 200 co-sponsors in the House and Senate , the bill is likely to pass @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Hoyer said he will call the full House back to vote “ as soon as this legislation is ready to hit the floor , ” and Democrats are eyeing passage by the end of the month .
But it probably won ’ t get much further , especially after Trump tweeted his opposition to Democrats ’ proposed reforms .
Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell has shown very little appetite for taking up bills that don ’ t have Trump ’ s support , and an anti-lynching bill stalled in the Senate less than @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Committee , led by Sen. Lindsey Graham ( R-SC ) , will hold a hearing on police violence next week that is likely to provide more insight into what lawmakers are interested in doing .
Meanwhile , Democrats on Monday condemned the inertia they ’ ve seen thus far .
“ Just last week , we couldn ’ t even pass an anti-lynching bill in the US Senate , ” Harris noted , mentioning a bill that was held up due to the objections of Sen. Rand Paul ( R-KY ) .
The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ bill that attempts to get at the problem of police brutality toward black communities through a number of different means .
One of the most significant parts of the bill is a provision changing the law to make it easier to prosecute police officers who harm or kill someone , as well as those who are charged with other forms of misconduct .
But the bill contains a number of other measures , including a requirement for the US attorney general to create new standards for law enforcement accreditation , the establishment of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , and mandatory racial bias training at the federal level .
Here are some of the key parts of the bill : Revising federal law on criminal police misconduct and qualified immunity reform : The new bill would change one very significant word in federal law when it comes to prosecuting police : “ willful.
” That word means prosecutors charging police have to demonstrate there was willful intent on the part of the police officer to kill or harm someone — which can be extremely difficult to prove and successfully prosecute .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ willful ” to the phrase “ knowingly or with reckless disregard.
” It would also define a “ death resulting ” as any act that was a “ substantial factor contributing to the death ” of an individual .
In addition , the bill changes something called qualified immunity , which courts have interpreted to give police officers and other public officials broad immunity from being sued if they have violated the constitutional rights of an individual .
The bill would make it easier for plaintiffs to recover damages against police officers if @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
“ Qualified immunity is something that has evolved over time .
It ’ s not written into any law , ” Booker told NPR ’ s Weekend Edition on Sunday .
“ But our highest courts in the land have decided that police officers are immune from civil cases unless there ’ s been specifically in the past a case of generally the exact circumstances that has led towards a successful action .
It creates this bar towards civil action against a police officer for violating your civil rights.
” Ban no-knock @ @ @ @ @ @ @ level : The use of a no-knock search warrant in Louisville on March 13 had fatal consequences .
Police shot and killed 26-year-old Breonna Taylor after using a battering ram to break down her door and exchanging fire with Taylor ’ s boyfriend .
The police were executing a search warrant for a drug case , pursuing two other men , but broke down Taylor ’ s door because they believed the men were receiving packages at her apartment .
The Democratic bill would ban these kinds of no-knock warrants in federal drug @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for state and local law enforcement agencies on prohibiting their use as well .
Ban chokeholds at the federal level : In 2014 , Eric Garner was killed by New York police , who used a chokehold to restrain him during an arrest .
And in May , Floyd died after a police officer placed his knee on Floyd ’ s neck for more than eight minutes .
The legislation would put a federal ban in place on the use of police chokeholds , which is defined by the bill as an act @ @ @ @ @ @ @ throat or windpipe that impedes their ability to breathe .
Such bans have already been supported by localities across the country including , most recently , Minneapolis .
A federal chokehold ban would further condemn the use of this tactic by police and give the Justice Department more power to levy charges against law enforcement officers that use this maneuver .
Activists have raised questions about the efficacy of such bans : Despite the New York Police Department banning chokeholds in 1993 , police using the method killed Eric Garner in 2014 .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ law enforcement officers : There ’ s currently very little data available about police misconduct , making it difficult to pin down past offenders and ensure that they don ’ t receive jobs in new places .
According to a USA Today report , punishment for misconduct also varies at the state level , with some requiring police to decertify while others are far less punitive .
Creating a national registry about misconduct would enable lawmakers to better understand its frequency and craft targeted responses to combat it .
Require states to report @ @ @ @ @ @ @ : Similarly , little is currently known about the frequency with which police officers currently use force , something the bill is striving to change .
By mandating state documentation of use of force , law enforcement agencies can begin to determine how often police are engaging in such actions .
Mandate racial bias training at the federal level : A reform that ’ s been implemented in some police stations across the country , racial bias training is aimed at getting law enforcement officers to recognize their own explicit and implicit biases @ @ @ @ @ @ @ way they respond in different situations .
Researchers have found implicit racial biases could be tied to officers being quicker to shoot black subjects versus white subjects .
The training involves providing officers with evidence of these biases playing out so they are forced to recognize their existence .
In addition to requiring it at the federal level , the bill would condition funding for state and local police based on their commitment to implementing racial bias training programs .
Among critics of racial bias training , questions remain about how effective it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ use of force .
Require that deadly force only be used as last resort : The bill would change the use of force standard for federal officers from “ reasonableness ” to only when it is necessary to either prevent death or “ serious bodily injury.
” It would require federal officers to use deescalation techniques and only resort to force as a last resort , and would condition federal funds to state and local agencies on their adoption of the same standard .
Make lynching a federal crime : The killings of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ black jogger who was shot by two white men in Georgia while he was out on a run , have been described as modern-day lynchings .
Despite more than 200 attempts to consider bills addressing such acts , there remains no law on the books classifying lynchings as a federal crime .
While the House and Senate have respectively passed their own legislation that would do so , the two have yet to approve one bill and get it signed into law .
This bill would guarantee that lynching — described by Hoyer @ @ @ @ @ @ @ by a mob or group of people to instill fear ” — would be treated as a federal crime .
It would also classify conspiring to commit civil rights offenses , such as a hate crime , as a lynching .
Require police to use more body and dashboard cameras : The bill would require federal police officers to wear body cameras and put dashboard cameras on all federal police vehicles .
It requires state and local departments to use existing federal funds to increase body camera use , which has been on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of Michael Brown in Ferguson , Missouri .
However , research has shown that more cameras aren ’ t the whole story ; police don ’ t always turn them on or review the footage while writing an incident report , and footage is not always made public .
Limit the transfer of military equipment to local police departments : Currently , the military is able to distribute excess equipment including armored vehicles and ammunition to local law enforcement agencies .
The bill would prohibit the distribution of equipment like drones and armored @ @ @ @ @ @ @ go as far as activists have been demanding The focus for many activists in the recent protests has been a straightforward one : Defund the police .
The idea , as Vox ’ s Matt Yglesias explains , centers on reducing funding for police and redistributing that money to other programs such as social services like food assistance programs and workforce development .
This approach could ensure that more funding can be dedicated to providing support for communities and addressing the fundamental causes of crime .
Congressional lawmakers and presumptive Democratic presidential nominee @ @ @ @ @ @ @ this idea both in this bill and in recent statements .
“ I can ’ t imagine that happening in a federal way , but let me just tell you that part of that cry is a desire for there to be significant higher investment in communities looking at why police are needed , what happens , what are the root causes of the problems in communities , ” Bass said Monday .
“ A lot of people feel when it comes to the defense budget , maybe that money could be used @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that ’ s a similar issue.
” Democrats ’ bill doesn ’ t reduce police funding or provide any new money for policing , though there is a provision in it that allocates grants for “ projects that begin to ‘ re-envision ’ what policing might be about in a particular neighborhood , ” according to Bass .
Biden , too , supports bolstering funding for social programs but does not back defunding the police , according to a statement from his spokesperson Andrew Bates .
He instead supports additional money for community @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ broader position on this subject is likely driven , in part , by the support that police still have from a majority of the public — even though people have become more aware of the racial biases behind their work .
According to a Monmouth poll conducted in early June , 71 percent of people are satisfied with the job that police are doing in their local neighborhoods .
Activists , meanwhile , note that much of the pressure around police reform and defunding needs to come at the state and local @ @ @ @ @ @ @ acknowledge specific failings by members of their own party .
Cities , including those run by Democratic mayors , like Baltimore and New York City , for example , are among those where there have been high-profile incidents of police violence killing black individuals during those leaders ’ tenure .
“ While the Democrats are taking these relatively bold steps in Congress , how are you going to hold these Democrats accountable in these cities and states where these deaths are taking place ?
” Jordan Giger , a Black Lives Matter organizer @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Every day at Vox , we aim to answer your most important questions and provide you , and our audience around the world , with information that has the power to save lives .
Our mission has never been more vital than it is in this moment : to empower you through understanding .
Vox ’ s work is reaching more people than ever , but our distinctive brand of explanatory journalism takes resources — particularly during a pandemic and an economic downturn .
Your financial contribution will not constitute a donation @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to continue to offer free articles , videos , and podcasts at the quality and volume that this moment requires .
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House and Senate Democrats unveiled a new policing reform bill on Monday in the wake of George Floyd’s killing at the hands of a now-former Minneapolis police officer and the weeks of protests against police brutality that followed.
The Justice in Policing Act of 2020 contains a number of measures that make it easier to prosecute police misconduct and demilitarize police departments around the country.
The bill’s biggest provision seeks to end qualified immunity, a thorny legal issue that gives police officers and other public officials broad immunity from civil lawsuits. The US Supreme Court, which has upheld the qualified-immunity doctrine in past rulings, is currently deciding whether to hear arguments next term in a case challenging qualified immunity.
The legislation also incorporates a proposal from Sen. Cory Booker that would create a new national registry to track misconduct as a way to prevent repeat offenders from being rehired at other police departments.
In addition, the bill seeks to ban the use of chokeholds and certain no-knock warrants at the federal level, as well as to incentivize state and local governments to do the same. Both tactics have been factors in police killings of unarmed black people: A no-knock warrant used by police in Kentucky in March ended in the death of Breonna Taylor, a 26-year-old EMT who died after officers broke down her door without warning and fatally shot her.
“We cannot settle for anything less than transformative structural change,” House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) said Monday. “The martyrdom of George Floyd gave the American experience a moment of national anguish. … True justice can only be achieved with full comprehensive action. That’s what we are doing today.”
Pelosi and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) unveiled the bill alongside leaders and members of the Congressional Black Caucus, led by Rep. Karen Bass (D-CA). The Congressional Black Caucus — members of which include prominent African American senators like Booker and Kamala Harris (D-CA) — was instrumental in writing the bill.
“Empathy and sympathy and words of caring for those who have died and suffered is necessary, but it’s not enough,” Booker said Monday. “We must change laws and systems of accountability. We must pass legislation that makes our common values and our common ideals real in the law of our land.”
While it’s unlikely the Republican-led Senate will support the bill in its current form, or that President Donald Trump would sign it into law, the legislation still signals where Democrats want to take criminal justice reform should they win back the White House and Senate in November. Pelosi also noted that the bill is a “first step” and said there is “more to come” from Democrats on the subject of policing reform.
Multiple lawmakers on Monday called the bill “transformative.” While the expansive bill doesn’t contain any new money for police, it is clearly an attempt to establish federal guidelines for reform rather than defund police departments altogether. That falls short of what some activists are calling for — and what the Minneapolis City Council is attempting to do.
“We want to work with our police departments,” Pelosi said. “There are many things we call upon our police departments to deal with — mental health issues, policing in schools and the rest — that we could rebalance some of our funding to address some of those issues more directly. But this isn’t about that.”
By and large, the bill would give federal agencies like the Justice Department the ability to hold state and city entities more accountable for police misconduct. Because so many policies are determined at the local level, though, the legislation faces limitations. In several points, the bill conditions federal funding on state and local governments adopting the reforms it proposes.
Pressure for reforms in state and local governments is crucial: “Almost all policing is done at the local and state, not federal, level; out of the nearly 18,000 law enforcement agencies in the US, a dozen or so are federal. It’s at the local and state level, then, where reforms can and should happen,” Vox’s German Lopez previously reported.
With over 200 co-sponsors in the House and Senate, the bill is likely to pass the House. House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer said he will call the full House back to vote “as soon as this legislation is ready to hit the floor,” and Democrats are eyeing passage by the end of the month.
But it probably won’t get much further, especially after Trump tweeted his opposition to Democrats’ proposed reforms. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell has shown very little appetite for taking up bills that don’t have Trump’s support, and he’s called for Republicans to develop their own response, led by Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC), the only African American in the GOP conference. (Already, Sen. Mitt Romney (R-UT) has been working with Scott and a small group of Republican lawmakers to draft his own bill to create police “supervisory boards” and increase racial bias trainings.)
The Senate Judiciary Committee, chaired by Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC), will also hold a hearing on police violence next week that is likely to provide more insight into what lawmakers are interested in doing.
Democrats on Monday condemned the inertia they’ve seen thus far in the Senate.
“Just last week, we couldn’t even pass an anti-lynching bill in the US Senate,” Harris noted, mentioning a bill that was held up due to the objections of Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY).
What’s in the police reform bill
The Justice in Policing Act is a wide-ranging bill that attempts to get at the problem of police brutality toward black communities through a number of different means.
One of the most significant parts of the bill is a provision changing the law to make it easier to prosecute police officers who harm or kill someone, as well as those who are charged with other forms of misconduct. But the bill contains a number of other measures, including a requirement for the US attorney general to create new standards for law enforcement accreditation, the establishment of a national registry to track police misconduct, and mandatory racial bias training at the federal level.
Here are some of the key parts of the bill:
Revising federal law on criminal police misconduct and qualified immunity reform: The new bill would change one very significant word in federal law when it comes to prosecuting police: “willful.” That word means prosecutors charging police have to demonstrate there was willful intent on the part of the police officer to kill or harm someone — which can be extremely difficult to prove and successfully prosecute. The bill would change the word “willful” to the phrase “knowingly or with reckless disregard.” It would also define a “death resulting” as any act that was a “substantial factor contributing to the death” of an individual.
In addition, the bill changes something called qualified immunity, which courts have interpreted to give police officers and other public officials broad immunity from being sued if they have violated the constitutional rights of an individual. The bill would make it easier for plaintiffs to recover damages against police officers if the officer is sued and found guilty.
“Qualified immunity is something that has evolved over time. It’s not written into any law,” Booker told NPR’s Weekend Edition on Sunday. “But our highest courts in the land have decided that police officers are immune from civil cases unless there’s been specifically in the past a case of generally the exact circumstances that has led towards a successful action. It creates this bar towards civil action against a police officer for violating your civil rights.”
Ban no-knock warrants in drug cases at the federal level: The use of a no-knock search warrant in Louisville on March 13 had fatal consequences. Police shot and killed 26-year-old Breonna Taylor after using a battering ram to break down her door and exchanging fire with Taylor’s boyfriend. The police were executing a search warrant for a drug case, pursuing two other men, but broke down Taylor’s door because they believed the men were receiving packages at her apartment. The Democratic bill would ban these kinds of no-knock warrants in federal drug cases, but also condition federal funding for state and local law enforcement agencies on prohibiting their use as well.
Ban chokeholds at the federal level: In 2014, Eric Garner was killed by New York police, who used a chokehold to restrain him during an arrest. And in May, Floyd died after a police officer placed his knee on Floyd’s neck for more than eight minutes.
The legislation would put a federal ban in place on the use of police chokeholds, which is defined by the bill as an act putting pressure on an individual’s throat or windpipe that impedes their ability to breathe. Such bans have already been supported by localities across the country including, most recently, Minneapolis.
A federal chokehold ban would further condemn the use of this tactic by police and give the Justice Department more power to levy charges against law enforcement officers that use this maneuver. Activists have raised questions about the efficacy of such bans: Despite the New York Police Department banning chokeholds in 1993, police using the method killed Eric Garner in 2014.
Establish a national registry of misconduct by law enforcement officers: There’s currently very little data available about police misconduct, making it difficult to pin down past offenders and ensure that they don’t receive jobs in new places. According to a USA Today report, punishment for misconduct also varies at the state level, with some requiring police to decertify while others are far less punitive. Creating a national registry about misconduct would enable lawmakers to better understand its frequency and craft targeted responses to combat it.
Require states to report use of force to the Justice Department: Similarly, little is currently known about the frequency with which police officers currently use force, something the bill is striving to change. By mandating state documentation of use of force, law enforcement agencies can begin to determine how often police are engaging in such actions.
Mandate racial bias training at the federal level: A reform that’s been implemented in some police stations across the country, racial bias training is aimed at getting law enforcement officers to recognize their own explicit and implicit biases — and how these attitudes affect the way they respond in different situations. Researchers have found implicit racial biases could be tied to officers being quicker to shoot black subjects versus white subjects. The training involves providing officers with evidence of these biases playing out so they are forced to recognize their existence.
In addition to requiring it at the federal level, the bill would condition funding for state and local police based on their commitment to implementing racial bias training programs. Among critics of racial bias training, questions remain about how effective it is in deterring police abuses and disparate use of force.
Require that deadly force only be used as last resort: The bill would change the use of force standard for federal officers from “reasonableness” to only when it is necessary to either prevent death or “serious bodily injury.” It would require federal officers to use deescalation techniques and only resort to force as a last resort, and would condition federal funds to state and local agencies on their adoption of the same standard.
Make lynching a federal crime: The killings of both Floyd and Ahmaud Arbery, a black jogger who was shot by two white men in Georgia while he was out on a run, have been described as modern-day lynchings. Despite more than 200 attempts to consider bills addressing such acts, there remains no law on the books classifying lynchings as a federal crime.
While the House and Senate have respectively passed their own legislation that would do so, the two have yet to approve one bill and get it signed into law. This bill would guarantee that lynching — described by Hoyer as “the premeditated, extrajudicial killing by a mob or group of people to instill fear” — would be treated as a federal crime. It would also classify conspiring to commit civil rights offenses, such as a hate crime, as a lynching.
Require police to use more body and dashboard cameras: The bill would require federal police officers to wear body cameras and put dashboard cameras on all federal police vehicles. It requires state and local departments to use existing federal funds to increase body camera use, which has been on the rise since the 2014 shooting death of Michael Brown in Ferguson, Missouri. However, research has shown that more cameras aren’t the whole story; police don’t always turn them on or review the footage while writing an incident report, and footage is not always made public.
Limit the transfer of military equipment to local police departments: Currently, the military is able to distribute excess equipment including armored vehicles and ammunition to local law enforcement agencies. The bill would prohibit the distribution of equipment like drones and armored vehicles.
The policies don’t go as far as activists have been demanding
The focus for many activists in the recent protests has been a straightforward one: Defund the police.
The idea, as Vox’s Matt Yglesias explains, centers on reducing funding for police and redistributing that money to other programs such as social services like food assistance programs and workforce development. This approach could ensure that more funding can be dedicated to providing support for communities and addressing the fundamental causes of crime. Congressional lawmakers and presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden have stopped short of backing this idea both in this bill and in recent statements.
“I can’t imagine that happening in a federal way, but let me just tell you that part of that cry is a desire for there to be significant higher investment in communities looking at why police are needed, what happens, what are the root causes of the problems in communities,” Bass said Monday. “A lot of people feel when it comes to the defense budget, maybe that money could be used in different ways, and I think that’s a similar issue.”
Democrats’ bill doesn’t reduce police funding or provide any new money for policing, though there is a provision in it that allocates grants for “projects that begin to ‘re-envision’ what policing might be about in a particular neighborhood,” according to Bass.
Biden, too, supports bolstering funding for social programs but does not back defunding the police, according to a statement from his spokesperson Andrew Bates. He instead supports additional money for community policing programs and other training. Democrats’ broader position on this subject is likely driven, in part, by the support that police still have from a majority of the public — even though people have become more aware of the racial biases behind their work. According to a Monmouth poll conducted in early June, 71 percent of people are satisfied with the job that police are doing in their local neighborhoods.
Activists, meanwhile, note that much of the pressure around police reform and defunding needs to come at the state and local levels, and requires national Democrats to acknowledge specific failings by members of their own party.
Cities, including those run by Democratic mayors, like Baltimore and New York City, for example, are among those where there have been high-profile incidents of police violence killing black individuals during those leaders’ tenure.
“While the Democrats are taking these relatively bold steps in Congress, how are you going to hold these Democrats accountable in these cities and states where these deaths are taking place?” Jorden Giger, a Black Lives Matter organizer in South Bend, Indiana, asked.


vox--2020-06-08--These 7 countries have the most worrying Covid-19 outbreaks

The coronavirus is not done with this world , and the world can not think it ’ s done with the coronavirus .
Here in the United States , there are already worrying signs that the pandemic is not only not abating but starting to pick up in some places .
If we zoom out to look at the whole globe , there are numerous countries where the coronavirus outbreak is getting worryingly worse .
I asked a handful of public health experts Monday to identify some of the international hot spots they are concerned about .
There was a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ which indicates to me there is a clear group of places that we should be keeping a close eye on for the foreseeable future .
Data for each country ’ s stats pulled from Our World in Data on Monday , June 8 .
The second most populous country in the world was , along with the second entrant on this list , the most common country to be cited by public health experts as an area of concern .
The fear for India is simply the slow , steady rise in its @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that its deep social inequities will exacerbate the outbreak .
“ In Asia , India is the country of most concern , due to the large population [ and ] vastness of the country as well as the easing of restrictions that is ongoing , ” Wafaa El-Sadr , who works on epidemiology and global health at Columbia University , told me .
“ It is also likely that deaths are underreported particularly from rural areas.
” As El-Sadr and some of the other experts I spoke with pointed out , India is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ cases continue to climb .
Restaurants and shops are opening up , and religious services will be allowed again .
Masks are going to be mandatory , but it ’ s a troubling combination .
The largest country in South America — which is broadly experiencing an uptick in Covid-19 cases ; several experts also mentioned Peru to me — is maybe the likeliest candidate to eventually supplant the United States as the biggest epicenter for the coronavirus outbreak .
Brazil has seen the worst of all worlds for Covid-19 : Government leaders @ @ @ @ @ @ @ threat , and now some cities are already starting reopening despite the continued surge in cases .
There have also been widespread reports of hospitals being overwhelmed , which could augment Covid-19 ’ s toll beyond the disease itself if people with other needs can ’ t get necessary medical care .
Albert Ko , a Yale University epidemiologist , ticked through the issues converging in the country : “ Many highly populated cities are in exponential phase and may serve as foci for spread to other regions ; low testing capacity ; @ @ @ @ @ @ @ which has refused to implement strong social distancing.
” South Africa has not been as ravaged by Covid-19 to date as some of the other countries on this list , but the rate at which its epidemic is growing has put it on experts ’ radar .
“ South Africa has experienced its largest-ever case numbers in the previous week , as winter sets in and as relaxation of earlier lockdown gets underway , ” Josh Michaud , associate director of global health policy at the Kaiser Family Foundation , said .
As @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the other countries on this list like Brazil and India , the existing racial and social inequities in South Africa could prove to be a dangerous combination with Covid-19 .
“ Health and housing disparities there make for an explosive potential for black South Africans in crowded townships , ” Chris Beyrer , a Johns Hopkins professor who studies epidemiology and international health , told me .
Iran has been a coronavirus epicenter since the coronavirus first left China and started spreading around the world ; you might recall that some of its @ @ @ @ @ @ @ days of the pandemic .
But it should be monitored carefully now because a second wave is well underway , after the first wave seemed to have subsided , Michaud said .
The Washington Post reported that after the first wave was concentrated in the capital city of Tehran and the holy city of Qom , this second wave popped up in the Khuzestan province .
There is a large Arab population there , which has been mistrustful of the government and its public health restrictions .
A mask shortage and a weak @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in containing the second wave .
The Iranian example is a reminder for Americans that countries around the world are not monoliths and the same kind of divisiveness we ’ ve seen here can be a factor in Covid-19 ’ s spread elsewhere as well .
The Mexican government was slow to react to the coronavirus — soccer tournaments and concerts were permitted in the spring — and public health experts think the official death toll may be a dramatic undercount .
Yet social distancing is already easing , even as the case @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a country where many people live in poverty and the health system does not have great capacity .
El-Sadr lumped Mexico together with Brazil and Peru as “ countries of concern , due to reported rise in number of cases as well as in deaths .
In addition , reports of how the health system is being overwhelmed by the number of cases and the lack of intensive care beds and ventilators are also concerning.
” Russia is , in a way , a cousin to America in its Covid-19 outbreak : It @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , and while the number of cases is no longer growing , it remains stubbornly high .
On top of the high number of cases , Russia ’ s official Covid-19 death toll has also come under scrutiny .
The New York Times and other news outlets have reported that the overall excess mortality in Russia indicates the country has not counted all of its likely Covid-19 deaths .
The government has vehemently disputed those reports , but the experts I spoke with were doubtful of the low official fatality figures .
The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ totally unreliable.
” If this seems like trolling or ethnocentrism , I promise that wasn ’ t my intention when I started reporting this story .
But in several of my correspondences , public health experts emphasized that although social distancing is ramping down and the media ’ s focus has shifted to the problem of police violence , America is still the global epicenter of the pandemic .
“ Let ’ s also not forget the USA , where the burden is huge and the early opening with insufficient public concern @ @ @ @ @ @ @ more problems ahead , ” David Celentano , who leads the epidemiology department at Johns Hopkins , said .
“ Texas and North Carolina are two current examples of growing epidemics after opening up early.
” Beyrer felt much the same : “ Sorry to say the USA continues to be a country of real hot spot concern — particularly the South and Midwest regions.
” So did El-Sadr : “ Lastly , I remain concerned about the US , particularly in view of disparate situation with some municipalities and states doing quite @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to have an increase in number of cases.
” Look at the countries in deep blue on this map , which reflects the gross number of new Covid-19 cases over the past two weeks .
You ’ ll see all of the countries that are the deepest shade of blue , an ignominious distinction , are on this list — including the US .
This story appears in VoxCare , a newsletter from Vox on the latest twists and turns in America ’ s health care debate .
Sign up to get VoxCare @ @ @ @ @ @ @ care stats and news .
Every day at Vox , we aim to answer your most important questions and provide you , and our audience around the world , with information that has the power to save lives .
Our mission has never been more vital than it is in this moment : to empower you through understanding .
Vox ’ s work is reaching more people than ever , but our distinctive brand of explanatory journalism takes resources — particularly during a pandemic and an economic downturn .
Your financial contribution will @ @ @ @ @ @ @ will enable our staff to continue to offer free articles , videos , and podcasts at the quality and volume that this moment requires .
Please consider making a contribution to Vox today .

The coronavirus is not done with this world, and the world cannot think it’s done with the coronavirus.
Here in the United States, there are already worrying signs that the pandemic is not only not abating but starting to pick up in some places. If we zoom out to look at the whole globe, there are numerous countries where the coronavirus outbreak is getting worryingly worse.
I asked a handful of public health experts Monday to identify some of the international hot spots they are concerned about. There was a lot of overlap in their responses, which indicates to me there is a clear group of places that we should be keeping a close eye on for the foreseeable future. Data for each country’s stats pulled from Our World in Data on Monday, June 8.
1) India
Total cases: 256,611
Total deaths: 7,135
Two-week percentage change in cases: 64 percent
Tests per 1,000 people: 3.38
The second most populous country in the world was, along with the second entrant on this list, the most common country to be cited by public health experts as an area of concern.
The fear for India is simply the slow, steady rise in its Covid-19 cases as well as the risk that its deep social inequities will exacerbate the outbreak.
“In Asia, India is the country of most concern, due to the large population [and] vastness of the country as well as the easing of restrictions that is ongoing,” Wafaa El-Sadr, who works on epidemiology and global health at Columbia University, told me. “It is also likely that deaths are underreported particularly from rural areas.”
As El-Sadr and some of the other experts I spoke with pointed out, India is relaxing its social distancing measures even as cases continue to climb. Restaurants and shops are opening up, and religious services will be allowed again. Masks are going to be mandatory, but it’s a troubling combination.
2) Brazil
Total cases: 672,846
Total deaths: 35,930
Two-week percentage change in cases: 54 percent
Tests per 1,000 people: 2.28
The largest country in South America — which is broadly experiencing an uptick in Covid-19 cases; several experts also mentioned Peru to me — is maybe the likeliest candidate to eventually supplant the United States as the biggest epicenter for the coronavirus outbreak.
Brazil has seen the worst of all worlds for Covid-19: Government leaders were initially in denial about the coronavirus threat, and now some cities are already starting reopening despite the continued surge in cases.
There have also been widespread reports of hospitals being overwhelmed, which could augment Covid-19’s toll beyond the disease itself if people with other needs can’t get necessary medical care.
Albert Ko, a Yale University epidemiologist, ticked through the issues converging in the country: “Many highly populated cities are in exponential phase and may serve as foci for spread to other regions; low testing capacity; poor governance at the federal level, which has refused to implement strong social distancing.”
3) South Africa
Total cases: 48,285
Total deaths: 998
Two-week percentage change in cases: 105 percent
Tests per 1,000 people: 15.03
South Africa has not been as ravaged by Covid-19 to date as some of the other countries on this list, but the rate at which its epidemic is growing has put it on experts’ radar.
“South Africa has experienced its largest-ever case numbers in the previous week, as winter sets in and as relaxation of earlier lockdown gets underway,” Josh Michaud, associate director of global health policy at the Kaiser Family Foundation, said.
As in the United States and some of the other countries on this list like Brazil and India, the existing racial and social inequities in South Africa could prove to be a dangerous combination with Covid-19.
“Health and housing disparities there make for an explosive potential for black South Africans in crowded townships,” Chris Beyrer, a Johns Hopkins professor who studies epidemiology and international health, told me.
4) Iran
Total cases: 171,789
Total deaths: 8,281
Two-week percentage change in cases: 28 percent
Tests per 1,000 people: 12.62
Iran has been a coronavirus epicenter since the coronavirus first left China and started spreading around the world; you might recall that some of its government leaders were infected in the early days of the pandemic.
But it should be monitored carefully now because a second wave is well underway, after the first wave seemed to have subsided, Michaud said.
The Washington Post reported that after the first wave was concentrated in the capital city of Tehran and the holy city of Qom, this second wave popped up in the Khuzestan province.
There is a large Arab population there, which has been mistrustful of the government and its public health restrictions. A mask shortage and a weak health system have added to the difficulty in containing the second wave.
The Iranian example is a reminder for Americans that countries around the world are not monoliths and the same kind of divisiveness we’ve seen here can be a factor in Covid-19’s spread elsewhere as well.
5) Mexico
Total cases: 117,103
Total deaths: 13,699
Two-week percentage change in cases: 44 percent
Tests per 1,000 people: 2.2
The Mexican government was slow to react to the coronavirus — soccer tournaments and concerts were permitted in the spring — and public health experts think the official death toll may be a dramatic undercount.
Yet social distancing is already easing, even as the case and death counts continue to climb in a country where many people live in poverty and the health system does not have great capacity.
El-Sadr lumped Mexico together with Brazil and Peru as “countries of concern, due to reported rise in number of cases as well as in deaths. In addition, reports of how the health system is being overwhelmed by the number of cases and the lack of intensive care beds and ventilators are also concerning.”
6) Russia
Total cases: 467,673
Total deaths: 5,859
Two-week percentage change in cases: -9 percent
Tests per 1,000 people: 87.17
Russia is, in a way, a cousin to America in its Covid-19 outbreak: It has experienced a huge number of cases, and while the number of cases is no longer growing, it remains stubbornly high.
On top of the high number of cases, Russia’s official Covid-19 death toll has also come under scrutiny. The New York Times and other news outlets have reported that the overall excess mortality in Russia indicates the country has not counted all of its likely Covid-19 deaths.
The government has vehemently disputed those reports, but the experts I spoke with were doubtful of the low official fatality figures. The mortality data, Beyrer said, is “totally unreliable.”
7) United States
Total cases: 1,942,363
Total deaths: 110,514
Two-week percentage change in cases: -5 percent
Tests per 1,000 people: 61.59
If this seems like trolling or ethnocentrism, I promise that wasn’t my intention when I started reporting this story.
But in several of my correspondences, public health experts emphasized that although social distancing is ramping down and the media’s focus has shifted to the problem of police violence, America is still the global epicenter of the pandemic.
“Let’s also not forget the USA, where the burden is huge and the early opening with insufficient public concern for behavior change will undoubtedly lead to more problems ahead,” David Celentano, who leads the epidemiology department at Johns Hopkins, said. “Texas and North Carolina are two current examples of growing epidemics after opening up early.”
Beyrer felt much the same: “Sorry to say the USA continues to be a country of real hot spot concern — particularly the South and Midwest regions.”
So did El-Sadr: “Lastly, I remain concerned about the US, particularly in view of disparate situation with some municipalities and states doing quite well while others are struggling and continue to have an increase in number of cases.”
Look at the countries in deep blue on this map, which reflects the gross number of new Covid-19 cases over the past two weeks. You’ll see all of the countries that are the deepest shade of blue, an ignominious distinction, are on this list — including the US.
This story appears in VoxCare, a newsletter from Vox on the latest twists and turns in America’s health care debate. Sign up to get VoxCare in your inbox along with more health care stats and news.


vox--2020-06-08--Minneapolis may be the first city to dismantle the police

On Sunday , after weeks of protests following the police killing of George Floyd , a veto-proof majority of Minneapolis City Council members pledged to dissolve the city ’ s police department and create a new system for providing public safety .
“ We are going to dismantle the Minneapolis Police Department , ” Jeremiah Ellison , a Minneapolis city councilman , said on Twitter last week .
“ And when we ’ re done , we ’ re not simply gon na glue it back together .
We are going to dramatically rethink how we approach public safety and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ by eight other council members .
On Sunday , City Council President Lisa Bender , who has pledged to vote for the plan , said the lawmakers decided to take the step because “ our efforts at incremental reform have failed .
Period.
” The commitment from city officials is a victory for advocates of racial justice , including Minnesota-based advocacy groups Black Visions Collective and Reclaim the Block , which have called on the city “ to defund the Minneapolis Police Department and invest in the resources that really keep us safe @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , Indigenous communities and communities of color.
” After Floyd was killed by a then-police officer on May 25 , 2020 , the organizations jointly circulated a petition asking the city council to freeze new spending on police , cut $ 45 million from the Minneapolis Police Department budget ( MPD ) , expand community-based investment , and end police violence .
The council ’ s plan seems to go beyond this proposal , although exactly what council members plan to replace the MPD with remains unclear .
However , ideas like those @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Block would likely be included in the city ’ s final proposal , given that local officials have pledged to work with community groups to outline a vision for the future of preventing crime , mediating civilian disputes , and addressing emergencies .
Black Lives Matter activists have been calling for the nationwide defunding of police since publishing its policy platform in 2016 .
In that document , policy advocate at the Center for Popular Democracy Marbre Stahly-Butts and Forward Justice co-director Daryl Atkinson argue for rerouting funds from policing to “ long-term @ @ @ @ @ @ @ restorative justice and employment programs that have been shown to improve community safety , ” including “ investments in community based drug and mental health treatment , education , universal pre-K , and other social institutions [ that ] can make communities safer while improving life outcomes for all.
” Citing a study published in JAMA , Stahly-Butts and Atkinson honed in on the power of such programs — particularly those that are preventative — noting that “ children who do not participate ... are 70 percent more likely to be arrested for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The paradigm promoted by Black Lives Matter has spread across the country as calls to defund or abolish the police become a rallying cry in many of the nation ’ s anti-racist protests .
In their place , demonstrators have called for more funding for mental health professionals and preventative programming , such as youth employment and educational initiatives .
Overall , activists ’ push for “ the dismantling ” of the police is rooted in racially biased policing .
Beyond the killing of George Floyd , there has been a consistent pattern @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the issue is the subject of an upcoming investigation into the last 10 years of MPD policies and procedures .
Comprehensive New York Times reporting also found that over the past five years , “ Police in Minneapolis used force against black people at a rate at least seven times that of white people.
” “ When the police get physical — with kicks , neck holds , punches , shoves , takedowns , Mace , Tasers or other forms of muscle — nearly 60 percent of the time the person subject to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the Times ’ s Richard A. Oppel Jr. and Lazaro Gamio .
The broad contours of this reporting comport with other investigations of police departments in Ferguson , Missouri ; Newark , New Jersey ; and Baltimore .
Those investigations also found racialized malpractice from officers toward their black constituents .
Beyond the use of force , there are additional metrics suggesting the MPD is ripe for reforms .
Citing city data , reporters at the Star Tribune in Minneapolis found that in 2019 the Minneapolis Police solved only 56 percent of cases @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the Appeal ’ s Jay Willis reported , results are even worse for crimes involving sexual assault .
“ For rapes , the police department ’ s solve rate is abysmally low , ” Willis writes .
“ In 2018 , their clearance rate for rape was just 22 percent .
In other words , four out of every five rapes go unsolved in Minneapolis.
” According to statistics from the FBI — the MPD ’ s crime clearance rate is below average .
Nationally , law enforcement officials cleared 61.6 percent of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ offenses in 2017 .
These poor results would seem to support the claims that many black communities are both “ underpoliced and overpoliced , ” meaning they experience an undue amount of violence yet also suffer from inadequate crime prevention and resolution .
Minneapolis ’ s move to dismantle its police department comes in the context of this conversation .
The city ’ s push to introduce a new policy paradigm for public safety positions it as the first to meet this protester demand — and a potential model for other cities currently @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Vox , we aim to answer your most important questions and provide you , and our audience around the world , with information that has the power to save lives .
Our mission has never been more vital than it is in this moment : to empower you through understanding .
Vox ’ s work is reaching more people than ever , but our distinctive brand of explanatory journalism takes resources — particularly during a pandemic and an economic downturn .
Your financial contribution will not constitute a donation , but it will @ @ @ @ @ @ @ free articles , videos , and podcasts at the quality and volume that this moment requires .
Please consider making a contribution to Vox today .

On Sunday, after weeks of protests following the police killing of George Floyd, a veto-proof majority of Minneapolis City Council members pledged to dissolve the city’s police department and create a new system for providing public safety.
“We are going to dismantle the Minneapolis Police Department,” Jeremiah Ellison, a Minneapolis city councilman, said on Twitter last week. “And when we’re done, we’re not simply gonna glue it back together. We are going to dramatically rethink how we approach public safety and emergency response.”
Ellison has been joined by eight other council members. On Sunday, City Council President Lisa Bender, who has pledged to vote for the plan, said the lawmakers decided to take the step because “our efforts at incremental reform have failed. Period.”
The commitment from city officials is a victory for advocates of racial justice, including Minnesota-based advocacy groups Black Visions Collective and Reclaim the Block, which have called on the city “to defund the Minneapolis Police Department and invest in the resources that really keep us safe and healthy, especially in Black communities, Indigenous communities and communities of color.”
After Floyd was killed by a then-police officer on May 25, 2020, the organizations jointly circulated a petition asking the city council to freeze new spending on police, cut $45 million from the Minneapolis Police Department budget (MPD), expand community-based investment, and end police violence.
The council’s plan seems to go beyond this proposal, although exactly what council members plan to replace the MPD with remains unclear. However, ideas like those of Black Visions Collective and Reclaim the Block would likely be included in the city’s final proposal, given that local officials have pledged to work with community groups to outline a vision for the future of preventing crime, mediating civilian disputes, and addressing emergencies.
Minneapolis has suffered from longstanding policing problems
Black Lives Matter activists have been calling for the nationwide defunding of police since publishing its policy platform in 2016. In that document, policy advocate at the Center for Popular Democracy Marbre Stahly-Butts and Forward Justice co-director Daryl Atkinson argue for rerouting funds from policing to “long-term safety strategies such as educational, community restorative justice and employment programs that have been shown to improve community safety,” including “investments in community based drug and mental health treatment, education, universal pre-K, and other social institutions [that] can make communities safer while improving life outcomes for all.”
Citing a study published in JAMA, Stahly-Butts and Atkinson honed in on the power of such programs — particularly those that are preventative — noting that “children who do not participate ... are 70 percent more likely to be arrested for a violent crime by age 18.”
The paradigm promoted by Black Lives Matter has spread across the country as calls to defund or abolish the police become a rallying cry in many of the nation’s anti-racist protests. In their place, demonstrators have called for more funding for mental health professionals and preventative programming, such as youth employment and educational initiatives.
Overall, activists’ push for “the dismantling” of the police is rooted in racially biased policing. Beyond the killing of George Floyd, there has been a consistent pattern of racialized police brutality in Minneapolis; the issue is the subject of an upcoming investigation into the last 10 years of MPD policies and procedures. Comprehensive New York Times reporting also found that over the past five years, “Police in Minneapolis used force against black people at a rate at least seven times that of white people.”
“When the police get physical — with kicks, neck holds, punches, shoves, takedowns, Mace, Tasers or other forms of muscle — nearly 60 percent of the time the person subject to that force is black,” wrote the Times’s Richard A. Oppel Jr. and Lazaro Gamio.
The broad contours of this reporting comport with other investigations of police departments in Ferguson, Missouri; Newark, New Jersey; and Baltimore. Those investigations also found racialized malpractice from officers toward their black constituents.
Beyond the use of force, there are additional metrics suggesting the MPD is ripe for reforms.
Citing city data, reporters at the Star Tribune in Minneapolis found that in 2019 the Minneapolis Police solved only 56 percent of cases in which someone was killed. As the Appeal’s Jay Willis reported, results are even worse for crimes involving sexual assault. “For rapes, the police department’s solve rate is abysmally low,” Willis writes. “In 2018, their clearance rate for rape was just 22 percent. In other words, four out of every five rapes go unsolved in Minneapolis.”
According to statistics from the FBI — the MPD’s crime clearance rate is below average. Nationally, law enforcement officials cleared 61.6 percent of murder offenses and 34.5 percent of rape offenses in 2017.
These poor results would seem to support the claims that many black communities are both “underpoliced and overpoliced,” meaning they experience an undue amount of violence yet also suffer from inadequate crime prevention and resolution.
Minneapolis’s move to dismantle its police department comes in the context of this conversation. The city’s push to introduce a new policy paradigm for public safety positions it as the first to meet this protester demand — and a potential model for other cities currently weighing similar concerns.


vox--2020-06-08--New York City, once the nation’s coronavirus epicenter, takes its first steps toward reopening

New York City is tentatively , but finally , reopening .
Monday marked the start of “ phase one ” of the reopening in what was once the epicenter of the coronavirus pandemic in America .
It took 100 days since its first reported Covid-19 case , and more than two months after the city first shut down , to reach this phase , and the five boroughs still trail behind the rest of New York state .
Counties upstate have already entered the second phase of reopening , and even places like hard-hit Long Island have already eased restrictions @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the scale of the crisis remains staggering : NYC recorded more than 200,000 confirmed cases and more than 21,000 deaths since the start of the outbreak .
Hundreds are still testing positive each day , but the death toll has dropped dramatically since its peak of 800 deaths in early April .
On June 3 , the city recorded no new Covid-19 fatalities for the first time since mid-March .
The phase one reopening is still very limited .
Manufacturing , wholesale trade , agriculture , landscaping , and construction are allowed to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ those industries during the full lockdown ) , and retail stores can reopen for curbside or in-store pickup .
Industries are still required to take precautions , such as enforcing social distancing rules and requiring face coverings .
Mayor Bill de Blasio said Monday that the city estimates between 200,000 and 400,000 workers could return to their jobs in this phase — and return to public transit , which is still trying to figure out how to adjust to the realities of commuting during the coronavirus pandemic .
Anti-police brutality protests sparked by @ @ @ @ @ @ @ which brought thousands of New Yorkers to the streets over the past 10 days , have somewhat overshadowed this milestone and complicated some of the questions around the city ’ s easing of lockdown restrictions .
City and state officials made clear that the coronavirus crisis is not over .
“ We are not out of the woods , ” Gov .
Andrew Cuomo said at a press conference Monday , “ but we are on the other side , certainly.
” The city was ravaged by the virus , which disproportionately affected @ @ @ @ @ @ @ many with means , fled .
New York ’ s budget office has estimated it will take years for the economy to fully recover and for jobs to reach pre-pandemic levels .
The state and city budgets have been decimated , and Washington has not yet committed more relief .
But Monday ’ s reopening is progress in a city that endured weeks of lockdown and screaming ambulances , saw its hospitals pushed to the breaking point , and became a coronavirus hot spot not just nationally , but worldwide .
“ This @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , and it was achieved by New Yorkers ’ hard work , ” de Blasio said at a Monday press conference .
“ This is clearly the hardest place in America to get to this moment , the hardest place to have a reopening , because we were the epicenter.
” New York City is entering phase one at a time of uncertainty New York state is planning a phased reopening in four stages .
To reach each phase , regions have to meet particular benchmarks , both health indicators — like a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and metrics related to capacity , such as expanded testing and contact tracing .
New York City is the last part of the state to even partially reopen .
It must remain in this phase for at least two weeks ; if it continues to meet these benchmarks , it can then enter phase two , which will allow many stores ( but not indoor malls ) to resume in-store retail , and businesses , including financial , legal , and real estate services , to reopen .
That includes nail and hair @ @ @ @ @ @ @ at reduced capacity and take health precautions , such as enforcing the use of face coverings for employees and patrons .
Outdoor dining can also resume in phase two , and places of worship can reopen at 25 percent capacity .
Phase three will allow bars and restaurants to resume indoor service , with restrictions , and phase four will allow cultural institutions , like museums and Broadway , to reopen .
New York City is still a long way from these phases , and officials will have to wait at least two @ @ @ @ @ @ @ boroughs can move to phase two .
City officials have suggested the most realistic timeline for phase two is sometime next month , in early July .
And even phase one comes with a lot of uncertainty .
About 500 businesses have called a hotline set up by New York City ’ s Small Business Services to field reopening questions , according to city officials .
The city is also offering support to businesses , such as providing face masks .
Transportation is another major — and still woefully unresolved — issue .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ ( MTA ) , the state-run agency that oversees the city ’ s subways and regional rail , still haven ’ t put forward a clear strategy to handle the influx of commuters who will be returning to work on trains and buses , places where social distancing , especially during rush hour peaks , is improbable .
The subway ’ s 24-hour service was curtailed last month so trains could be cleaned between 1 and 5 am , and that remains in place .
De Blasio said Monday that the city will @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on some bus routes to ease crowding , but this won ’ t be fully rolled out until later in the summer and falls short of the 60 miles the MTA asked for from the city .
The mayor said 800 police school safety officers will be deployed to subway platforms to help encourage social distancing and hand out free face masks ( there will be no criminal enforcement ) .
Social distance markers have started to appear on subway platforms and at stations , designating areas for people to safely stand .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ address crowding as more people return to work , and the MTA has basically said trying to permanently enforce social distancing on public transit is going to be impossible .
Daily average ridership ticked up at the end of May to about 1.3 million on the city ’ s subways and buses , up from 800,000 during the height of the pandemic .
Pre-pandemic ridership was nearly 8 million , and it ’ s unlikely to reach that level anytime soon , especially if New Yorkers aren ’ t confident it ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are the recent anti-police brutality protests in New York City , which brought hundreds of people together night after night .
Masks were a feature of the protests ( at least among demonstrators ) , and though they took place outdoors , they defied guidance on mass gatherings .
Whether these protests will cause an uptick in coronavirus cases in New York City probably won ’ t be clear for at least another two weeks , given the incubation period of Covid-19 .
Beyond the health risks , the demonstrations reignited questions about @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in the city .
The shutdowns smothered many small businesses in New York City , and some of those were looted and vandalized during the unrest , adding another huge roadblock to recovery .
The city and state are offering assistance to businesses that were looted , including dozens of small businesses targeted in the Bronx .
But even that help might not be enough to overcome the larger challenges of an uncertain economic recovery in New York and across the country .
The coronavirus has also strained the city ’ s budgets @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and municipalities .
That will require major cuts , and the recent protests have renewed calls to cut money from the New York City Police Department ’ s $ 6 billion budget .
Advocates and activists are calling to reallocate $ 1 billion from the NYPD to other programs , such as social services and infrastructure programs that will help with pandemic recovery .
De Blasio has said the NYPD ’ s budget will be cut , saying it will be “ something substantial ” on Monday , but he declined to commit @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The mayor has said he wants to put the money toward youth-employment programs .
But even with these challenges , the phase one reopening is a critical milestone .
New York was the epicenter of the pandemic in the US and , really , worldwide .
New York state is close to testing 35,000 people per day , and the number of new cases is clocking in around 500 , a level at which the thousands of new contact tracers can be deployed to try to control infections .
New York , along @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Connecticut , continues to see deaths and infection rates decline , even as other places in the US are seeing spikes .
The national death toll from Covid-19 now exceeds 110,000 .
“ If you had told me 100 days ago , we would be reopening , when we didn ’ t even know how bad it was going to get — I mean , we had some dire predictions , ” Cuomo said Monday .
“ It was frightening , ” he added .
“ But New Yorkers did it .
New @ @ @ @ @ @ @ simple.
” Every day at Vox , we aim to answer your most important questions and provide you , and our audience around the world , with information that has the power to save lives .
Our mission has never been more vital than it is in this moment : to empower you through understanding .
Vox ’ s work is reaching more people than ever , but our distinctive brand of explanatory journalism takes resources — particularly during a pandemic and an economic downturn .
Your financial contribution will not constitute a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ staff to continue to offer free articles , videos , and podcasts at the quality and volume that this moment requires .
Please consider making a contribution to Vox today .

New York City is tentatively, but finally, reopening.
Monday marked the start of “phase one” of the reopening in what was once the epicenter of the coronavirus pandemic in America. It took 100 days since its first reported Covid-19 case, and more than two months after the city first shut down, to reach this phase, and the five boroughs still trail behind the rest of New York state. Counties upstate have already entered the second phase of reopening, and even places like hard-hit Long Island have already eased restrictions.
Even as the city reopens, the scale of the crisis remains staggering: NYC recorded more than 200,000 confirmed cases and more than 21,000 deaths since the start of the outbreak. Hundreds are still testing positive each day, but the death toll has dropped dramatically since its peak of 800 deaths in early April. On June 3, the city recorded no new Covid-19 fatalities for the first time since mid-March.
The phase one reopening is still very limited. Manufacturing, wholesale trade, agriculture, landscaping, and construction are allowed to resume (though some exceptions existed for those industries during the full lockdown), and retail stores can reopen for curbside or in-store pickup. Industries are still required to take precautions, such as enforcing social distancing rules and requiring face coverings.
Mayor Bill de Blasio said Monday that the city estimates between 200,000 and 400,000 workers could return to their jobs in this phase — and return to public transit, which is still trying to figure out how to adjust to the realities of commuting during the coronavirus pandemic.
Anti-police brutality protests sparked by the police killing of George Floyd, which brought thousands of New Yorkers to the streets over the past 10 days, have somewhat overshadowed this milestone and complicated some of the questions around the city’s easing of lockdown restrictions.
City and state officials made clear that the coronavirus crisis is not over. “We are not out of the woods,” Gov. Andrew Cuomo said at a press conference Monday, “but we are on the other side, certainly.”
The city was ravaged by the virus, which disproportionately affected minority and low-income communities. Thousands, many with means, fled. New York’s budget office has estimated it will take years for the economy to fully recover and for jobs to reach pre-pandemic levels. The state and city budgets have been decimated, and Washington has not yet committed more relief.
But Monday’s reopening is progress in a city that endured weeks of lockdown and screaming ambulances, saw its hospitals pushed to the breaking point, and became a coronavirus hot spot not just nationally, but worldwide.
“This is the first day of the reopening, and it was achieved by New Yorkers’ hard work,” de Blasio said at a Monday press conference. “This is clearly the hardest place in America to get to this moment, the hardest place to have a reopening, because we were the epicenter.”
New York City is entering phase one at a time of uncertainty
New York state is planning a phased reopening in four stages. To reach each phase, regions have to meet particular benchmarks, both health indicators — like a 14-day decline in hospitalizations and deaths — and metrics related to capacity, such as expanded testing and contact tracing.
New York City is the last part of the state to even partially reopen. It must remain in this phase for at least two weeks; if it continues to meet these benchmarks, it can then enter phase two, which will allow many stores (but not indoor malls) to resume in-store retail, and businesses, including financial, legal, and real estate services, to reopen.
That includes nail and hair salons, though all businesses must operate at reduced capacity and take health precautions, such as enforcing the use of face coverings for employees and patrons. Outdoor dining can also resume in phase two, and places of worship can reopen at 25 percent capacity.
Phase three will allow bars and restaurants to resume indoor service, with restrictions, and phase four will allow cultural institutions, like museums and Broadway, to reopen.
New York City is still a long way from these phases, and officials will have to wait at least two weeks to figure out whether the five boroughs can move to phase two. City officials have suggested the most realistic timeline for phase two is sometime next month, in early July. And even phase one comes with a lot of uncertainty.
About 500 businesses have called a hotline set up by New York City’s Small Business Services to field reopening questions, according to city officials. The city is also offering support to businesses, such as providing face masks.
Transportation is another major — and still woefully unresolved — issue. The city and the Metropolitan Transportation Authority (MTA), the state-run agency that oversees the city’s subways and regional rail, still haven’t put forward a clear strategy to handle the influx of commuters who will be returning to work on trains and buses, places where social distancing, especially during rush hour peaks, is improbable.
The subway’s 24-hour service was curtailed last month so trains could be cleaned between 1 and 5 am, and that remains in place. De Blasio said Monday that the city will add 20 miles of dedicated bus lanes on some bus routes to ease crowding, but this won’t be fully rolled out until later in the summer and falls short of the 60 miles the MTA asked for from the city.
The mayor said 800 police school safety officers will be deployed to subway platforms to help encourage social distancing and hand out free face masks (there will be no criminal enforcement). Social distance markers have started to appear on subway platforms and at stations, designating areas for people to safely stand.
But these measures will be insufficient to address crowding as more people return to work, and the MTA has basically said trying to permanently enforce social distancing on public transit is going to be impossible.
Daily average ridership ticked up at the end of May to about 1.3 million on the city’s subways and buses, up from 800,000 during the height of the pandemic. Pre-pandemic ridership was nearly 8 million, and it’s unlikely to reach that level anytime soon, especially if New Yorkers aren’t confident it’s safe.
The pandemic meets massive protests
Also looming over the reopening are the recent anti-police brutality protests in New York City, which brought hundreds of people together night after night. Masks were a feature of the protests (at least among demonstrators), and though they took place outdoors, they defied guidance on mass gatherings.
Whether these protests will cause an uptick in coronavirus cases in New York City probably won’t be clear for at least another two weeks, given the incubation period of Covid-19.
Beyond the health risks, the demonstrations reignited questions about what the pandemic recovery will look like in the city. The shutdowns smothered many small businesses in New York City, and some of those were looted and vandalized during the unrest, adding another huge roadblock to recovery.
The city and state are offering assistance to businesses that were looted, including dozens of small businesses targeted in the Bronx. But even that help might not be enough to overcome the larger challenges of an uncertain economic recovery in New York and across the country.
The coronavirus has also strained the city’s budgets, as it has in other states and municipalities. That will require major cuts, and the recent protests have renewed calls to cut money from the New York City Police Department’s $6 billion budget.
Advocates and activists are calling to reallocate $1 billion from the NYPD to other programs, such as social services and infrastructure programs that will help with pandemic recovery. De Blasio has said the NYPD’s budget will be cut, saying it will be “something substantial” on Monday, but he declined to commit to that $1 billion figure. The mayor has said he wants to put the money toward youth-employment programs.
But even with these challenges, the phase one reopening is a critical milestone. New York was the epicenter of the pandemic in the US and, really, worldwide. New York state is close to testing 35,000 people per day, and the number of new cases is clocking in around 500, a level at which the thousands of new contact tracers can be deployed to try to control infections.
New York, along with neighboring states of New Jersey and Connecticut, continues to see deaths and infection rates decline, even as other places in the US are seeing spikes. The national death toll from Covid-19 now exceeds 110,000.
“If you had told me 100 days ago, we would be reopening, when we didn’t even know how bad it was going to get — I mean, we had some dire predictions,” Cuomo said Monday.
“It was frightening,” he added. “But New Yorkers did it. New Yorkers did it. It is that simple.”


vox--2020-06-08--Joe Biden has a really big lead in the polls

A Monday morning CNN poll showed Joe Biden with a staggering 14-point lead over President Trump as the electorate ’ s stated level of concern with “ race relations ” soars and the former vice president is seen as much better equipped to handle the issue .
Winning the popular vote by such a large margin would likely mean Democrats overperformed in battleground states and in places like Georgia , Iowa , and Texas that would put the Senate clearly in play .
And while the CNN poll is just one poll , and something of an outlier at that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ trend in national polling — Biden was winning before the outbreak of massive national protests in the wake of George Floyd ’ s death , and that lead has gotten bigger .
Maybe not 14 points bigger , but bigger than it was before and clearly larger than any lead Hillary Clinton ever held in the 2016 campaign .
The polls are getting better for Biden across the board As Nate Cohn , the New York Times ’ s polling and data guru , explains , every single high-quality national poll with proper @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ago .
And almost all of them have him leading by more today .
The exception is the NBC/WSJ poll , which has him flat at a 7-point lead .
Some analysts , like Economist data journalist G. Elliott Morris , suspect this may have something to do with nonresponse bias .
This is a phenomenon that is now fairly well-documented whereby when a given candidate has a bad news cycle , his supporters don ’ t actually turn against him but do become less likely to speak to pollsters .
A nonresponse @ @ @ @ @ @ @ posit that Trump supporters have become less proud to be supporting him and less likely to respond to polls — thus biasing the sample toward Democrats .
It is always a good idea to have some skepticism about large apparent shifts in the polls .
But things like weighting polls for partisan balance can overcorrect for nonresponse bias by ruling out the possibility that people are switching out of a party with an unpopular leader ( you may recall this as the “ unskewing ” controversy from the 2012 presidential cycle ) .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ polling analyst Harry Enten assures us that the share of Democrats in their sample didn ’ t change — Biden ’ s lead got bigger because he consolidated Democratic support and is doing better with independents .
This is different from Clinton ’ s polling lead For reference , Biden ’ s lead in the polls is larger than Hillary Clinton ’ s was in early June .
He ’ s up by about 8 points in the current RealClearPolitics average while Clinton ’ s lead was closer to 5 points .
Clinton @ @ @ @ @ @ @ lead in mid-October after widespread discussion of a recording in which Trump can be heard talking about sexually assaulting women .
But Biden ’ s lead is not only larger than that , it ’ s more secure .
Even on October 18 , Clinton was only at 46 percent in the polls with Trump doing terribly at 39 and plenty of undecided and third-party voters .
Today ’ s average , by contrast , has Biden at 50 percent with Trump at 42 .
That much smaller number of undecided or third-party @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a more difficult road for Trump to a come-from-behind victory .
Of course , people who remember confident forecasts of a Clinton win may have their doubts .
But it ’ s important to recall that this was more a case of bad forecasting than of bad polling .
In the 2016 cycle , the non-FiveThirty Eight forecasters generally modeled each state separately .
That meant that if Clinton had a narrow polling lead in Pennsylvania , and a narrow lead in Wisconsin , and a narrow lead in Michigan , and a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ narrow lead in North Carolina , the models treated it as reasonably likely that she might in fact lose one of those states but incredibly unlikely that she would lose all five .
A coin toss is 50-50 , but the odds of losing five coin tosses in a row are about 3 percent .
Many models treated Clinton ’ s odds in each swing state as somewhat better than a coin toss , thus creating the result that it was extraordinarily unlikely that she would lose all five .
A different way @ @ @ @ @ @ @ polls in Michigan are wrong because they undercounted the number of non-college white Trump voters , this should be a factor in every state with large numbers of non-college whites .
That ’ s almost every state in the union , and certainly every swing state .
When you understand polling error that way , then Clinton ’ s real but narrow lead in the polls should have been understood as making it unlikely that she would lose but only moderately so .
This Biden lead is different .
If you ’ re @ @ @ @ @ @ @ then the polls could be off by 4 points ( which would be a big but not mind-blowing error ) and the Electoral College could have a 4-point skew toward Trump ( which is at the upper range of plausibility but not totally out there ) and Biden would still win .
Basically , if you are up 10 in the polls , you are almost certainly going to win .
None of this means that Biden will win in November , simply because a lot of things will happen between now and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ reason to believe that if the election happened tomorrow , Biden would win — for it to be otherwise would involve a massive breakdown in polling , not a “ normal ” kind of statistical error .
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Our mission has never been more vital than it is in this moment : to empower you through understanding .
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A Monday morning CNN poll showed Joe Biden with a staggering 14-point lead over President Trump as the electorate’s stated level of concern with “race relations” soars and the former vice president is seen as much better equipped to handle the issue.
Winning the popular vote by such a large margin would likely mean Democrats overperformed in battleground states and in places like Georgia, Iowa, and Texas that would put the Senate clearly in play.
And while the CNN poll is just one poll, and something of an outlier at that, there is now a very clear trend in national polling — Biden was winning before the outbreak of massive national protests in the wake of George Floyd’s death, and that lead has gotten bigger.
Maybe not 14 points bigger, but bigger than it was before and clearly larger than any lead Hillary Clinton ever held in the 2016 campaign.
The polls are getting better for Biden across the board
As Nate Cohn, the New York Times’s polling and data guru, explains, every single high-quality national poll with proper education weighting had Biden leading two months ago. And almost all of them have him leading by more today. The exception is the NBC/WSJ poll, which has him flat at a 7-point lead.
That basically gives us a full 'wave' of the major national polls for the first time since 3/15-4/15, and Biden's lead has grown by an average of 4 points since then pic.twitter.com/PV2MTuXKSy — Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) June 8, 2020
Some analysts, like Economist data journalist G. Elliott Morris, suspect this may have something to do with nonresponse bias. This is a phenomenon that is now fairly well-documented whereby when a given candidate has a bad news cycle, his supporters don’t actually turn against him but do become less likely to speak to pollsters. A nonresponse theory, in other words, would posit that Trump supporters have become less proud to be supporting him and less likely to respond to polls — thus biasing the sample toward Democrats.
Hard to believe there's not a ton of partisan nonresponse going on right now. Would like modelers/political data journos to at least engage with that possibility, if not adjust for it explicitly. The trend in polls that correct for partisan balance is flat (same w online polls). https://t.co/EPZOE8XIoV — G. Elliott Morris (@gelliottmorris) June 8, 2020
It is always a good idea to have some skepticism about large apparent shifts in the polls. But things like weighting polls for partisan balance can overcorrect for nonresponse bias by ruling out the possibility that people are switching out of a party with an unpopular leader (you may recall this as the “unskewing” controversy from the 2012 presidential cycle).
One way or the other, CNN polling analyst Harry Enten assures us that the share of Democrats in their sample didn’t change — Biden’s lead got bigger because he consolidated Democratic support and is doing better with independents.
This is different from Clinton’s polling lead
For reference, Biden’s lead in the polls is larger than Hillary Clinton’s was in early June. He’s up by about 8 points in the current RealClearPolitics average while Clinton’s lead was closer to 5 points. Clinton did break out to about a 7-point lead in mid-October after widespread discussion of a recording in which Trump can be heard talking about sexually assaulting women.
But Biden’s lead is not only larger than that, it’s more secure.
Even on October 18, Clinton was only at 46 percent in the polls with Trump doing terribly at 39 and plenty of undecided and third-party voters. Today’s average, by contrast, has Biden at 50 percent with Trump at 42. That much smaller number of undecided or third-party voters augurs a more stable race and a more difficult road for Trump to a come-from-behind victory.
Of course, people who remember confident forecasts of a Clinton win may have their doubts. But it’s important to recall that this was more a case of bad forecasting than of bad polling. In the 2016 cycle, the non-FiveThirty Eight forecasters generally modeled each state separately. That meant that if Clinton had a narrow polling lead in Pennsylvania, and a narrow lead in Wisconsin, and a narrow lead in Michigan, and a narrow lead in Florida, and a narrow lead in North Carolina, the models treated it as reasonably likely that she might in fact lose one of those states but incredibly unlikely that she would lose all five.
A coin toss is 50-50, but the odds of losing five coin tosses in a row are about 3 percent. Many models treated Clinton’s odds in each swing state as somewhat better than a coin toss, thus creating the result that it was extraordinarily unlikely that she would lose all five.
A different way to think about it is that if polls in Michigan are wrong because they undercounted the number of non-college white Trump voters, this should be a factor in every state with large numbers of non-college whites. That’s almost every state in the union, and certainly every swing state. When you understand polling error that way, then Clinton’s real but narrow lead in the polls should have been understood as making it unlikely that she would lose but only moderately so.
This Biden lead is different. If you’re up 10 points in the polls, then the polls could be off by 4 points (which would be a big but not mind-blowing error) and the Electoral College could have a 4-point skew toward Trump (which is at the upper range of plausibility but not totally out there) and Biden would still win. Basically, if you are up 10 in the polls, you are almost certainly going to win.
None of this means that Biden will win in November, simply because a lot of things will happen between now and then. But we have very good reason to believe that if the election happened tomorrow, Biden would win — for it to be otherwise would involve a massive breakdown in polling, not a “normal” kind of statistical error.