vox--2020-09-30--The false hope of reopening is killing small businesses

Navy Pier is one of Chicago ’ s main attractions .
Home to more than 70 businesses , the complex on the shore of Lake Michigan is normally filled with crowds on a summer day .
“ Navy Pier is rocking , there ’ s people everywhere , there ’ s excitement , there ’ s fireworks , it ’ s a good time at Navy Pier , ” said Stephanie Hart , the owner of Brown Sugar Bakery , which has two locations , one on the South Side of Chicago and the other at Navy Pier .
This @ @ @ @ @ @ @ just wasn ’ t the same.
” The pier shut down when the pandemic hit in March , and then reopened in June .
According to Payal Patel , its communications director , attendance was just 15 percent this summer from the one before .
It shuttered again after Labor Day and now plans to reopen in 2021 .
“ It was heartbreaking , not just about my business , but to see Navy Pier in that kind of condition , ” Hart said .
During the pandemic , much of the conversation @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and reopening — just let things open back up again , the line of thinking goes , and everything will be okay .
But the reality of the situation is that for many businesses , that ’ s just not the case .
According to Yelp , more than 160,000 US businesses on its platform have closed since March 1 , nearly 100,000 of them permanently .
Data from Homebase , a team management software company , shows that the number of hours worked at small businesses is still about 20 percent below @ @ @ @ @ @ @ going to public places yet .
We ’ ve tried to put so many safety measures in place , but all of that , essentially , is not going to matter if people will not come , ” Patel said .
You can ’ t force business as usual when life is not .
Many businesses already operating with low margins pre-pandemic can ’ t survive under health-related restrictions that , while incredibly important , make staying afloat extremely difficult .
Beyond the restrictions , there are also broader issues afoot .
With @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Americans simply aren ’ t falling over themselves to go out and consume .
Millions of people have lost their jobs or are afraid they might , so they ’ re not as eager to spend their money on things they don ’ t perceive as necessary .
“ Customer is king in the United States , so what they want , they will get , but they don ’ t want anything right now ” That leaves small businesses fighting for their lives .
Eric Huebner , who owns a gift shop @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Navy Pier , has pulled out every stop he can think of to keep his business running .
He set up a GoFundMe page to try to raise money , applied for a Paycheck Protection Act loan , and once he began collecting unemployment benefits , he put some of that money toward his business .
He started selling his products via Facebook , too .
When the pier reopened , at first his sales were decent ; he estimates he took in 60 to 70 percent of normal revenue .
But then @ @ @ @ @ @ @ fell off a cliff .
“ A $ 900 day could go to a $ 90 day , ” he said .
Policies designed to help small- and medium-sized businesses are insufficient , in no small part because of this promise of reopening that fails to comprehend the depth and length of the crisis many of them are facing .
Reopening the economy can ’ t save small business , and the false hope that it can is part of what is killing it .
“ Customer is king in the United States @ @ @ @ @ @ @ will get , but they don ’ t want anything right now , ” said Claudia Sahm , the director of macroeconomic policy at the Washington Center for Equitable Growth and former Federal Reserve economist .
“ They can ’ t afford it , or they don ’ t want to go get it , or something ’ s holding them back.
” Consumers are spending less and spending differently Even before pandemic-related lockdowns took hold nationwide , consumers began to change their behavior .
They started steering clear of restaurants and staying @ @ @ @ @ @ @ lockdowns resulted in a huge decline in traffic across industries — restaurants and bars , travel and hospitality , fitness and beauty — and subsequent layoffs .
During the spring , you heard some economists and experts talking about a V-shaped recovery , the idea that just as quickly as the economy had contracted , it would also be able to recover .
But the thing is , you can ’ t turn the economy back on like a light switch , especially when the virus isn ’ t under control .
Some @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , and government leaders , are “ focused too much on the lockdowns by themselves and not the actual risk of the virus , which is a major disruption to business , ” said Adam Ozimek , an economist at the freelance platform Upwork and formerly of Moody ’ s Analytics .
Ozimek has experienced the problem firsthand : He is one of the owners of Decades , a sort of upscale entertainment complex with a bowling alley , arcade , restaurant , and bar , in Lancaster , Pennsylvania .
After shutting @ @ @ @ @ @ @ doing outdoor dining and takeout .
It has some indoor activity within health guidelines , too .
Still , the business is seeing weak demand .
It ’ s at just 28 percent of revenue from last year .
Decades got a PPP loan , which is a forgivable loan if the business spends it to keep workers on the payroll for a certain amount of time , and a grant from the state .
It ’ s still in the red .
“ We ran out of cash in September , and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the business , ” Ozimek said .
According to data from OpenTable , which tracks restaurant reservations and traffic , seated dining in the US is still down more than 50 percent year-over-year .
A survey the company did of in the US and Canada found a quarter of respondents say they dine out once a week , but it ’ s still not “ anywhere near as often as they did before — and it ’ s going to be a long time before they do , ” said OpenTable CEO Debby @ @ @ @ @ @ @ warned that things are about to get worse , not better : “ The colder months will present new challenges for restaurants , especially considering the majority of diners view outdoor dining as safer.
” OpenTable has forecast one in four restaurants could permanently close due to Covid-19 , though it notes that in countries such as Japan and Germany , which have done a better job of controlling the pandemic , the industry has rebounded .
OpenTable has forecast one in four restaurants could permanently close due to Covid-19 .
Yelp found @ @ @ @ @ @ @ US reviews , photos , and page views ) has increased since the pandemic first set in in late March , compared this time last year , it ’ s still down about 33 percent .
The same goes for gyms .
Erin Suggs , a hairstylist in California , recently told me that when her salon reopened for a while in the spring , business was much slower than it was in normal times — despite seeing the protests with people declaring they wanted a haircut on TV .
“ I was @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ” she said .
The way consumers are and aren ’ t spending their money is not necessarily a linear story .
Some of what ’ s changed is what people are spending on .
Instead of going to the restaurant , they ’ re going to the grocery store .
Instead of buying a dress at the local boutique , they ’ re ordering sweatpants on Amazon .
Spending so much time at home has made people more interested in home-improvement projects , meaning trips to Home Depot .
While there was @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in March and April , it rebounded in subsequent months .
One issue still bearing out in the data is the effect of the additional $ 600 in unemployment insurance benefits to people who lost their jobs , which was in place during much of the spring and summer but came to an end on July 31 .
US consumer spending started to slow down in August , and as Reuters notes , spending on services is still 10 percent below where it was in before Covid-19 hit .
“ This is a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ If services don ’ t come back , we ’ re really screwed , because that ’ s a big part of GDP.
” The Opportunity Insights Economic Tracker out of Harvard shows that total consumer spending across the US is still down by 7 percent compared to January , but that varies significantly across sectors .
Restaurants and hotels are down more than 25 percent , transportation nearly 50 percent , entertainment and recreation 60 percent .
Ruben Alonso III , the president of AltCap , a community development financial institution @ @ @ @ @ @ @ numerous small businesses throughout the pandemic , told me the effects of the pandemic “ was all over the board ” locally .
“ You saw some businesses struggling and closing even and others flourishing.
” Not all small businesses are alike , even in the same industry , and whether or not they ’ re able to survive depends on a lot of factors — where they are , what they do , whether they ’ re able to pivot , how much debt and risk their owners are and are not @ @ @ @ @ @ @ their fate is in their own hands , but not all of it .
Before the pandemic , Kiffany Bosserman ’ s company , Cottontale , largely entailed selling all-natural cotton candy at events .
Once Covid-19 kicked in and events were shut down , she “ pivoted hard , ” investing in a dessert tricycle to pop up at local restaurants and coffee houses .
Now , she ’ s in the process of setting up a storefront .
She ’ s gotten a loan from AltCap with a zero percent interest @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that will be enough to keep going , but it ’ s not easy .
The corporate events that were the business ’ bread and butter aren ’ t coming back fast , and while smaller events are happening , people prefer pre-packaged desserts to the live service .
“ We hustled and figured it out , ” said Bosserman , who runs the business with her husband .
“ We ’ re not going out to eat all the time , but we made the sacrifices.
” “ You saw some businesses @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ” Around reopening , some businesses saw a pretty immediate recovery thanks to pent-up demand , but eventually , that diminished and things evened out .
“ People are still coming in , even though they ’ re still working at 50 percent capacity , but that demand is not quite the level it was pre-Covid , ” said Megan Crook , advancement and external affairs officer at AltCap .
Sunny Burden , who works at a pizza restaurant in Chattanooga , Tennessee , told me that business “ plummeted ” around the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ It ’ s kind of just now in the past month , not even , starting to kind of pick back up , there are tourists coming through , ” she said .
For some businesses , there are workarounds for the situation — they can have few workers , reduce inventory , and find ways to run more efficiently .
But that doesn ’ t solve the problem for , say , a gym that has invested in machinery and still has to pay rent , or a restaurant that even running @ @ @ @ @ @ @ get customers in the door .
Trophy Bar in Brooklyn seemed as well poised as any small business to survive the pandemic — business was good pre-pandemic , it got a PPP loan for the holdover , and once restaurants and bars in New York were allowed to reopen with outdoor seating , it had a sizable yard to put back to use .
But following legal guidelines upon reopening meant Trophy could accommodate just eight tables safely and had to close by 11 pm .
About half of its staff didn ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ because they ’ d moved away or were afraid for their safety .
Many New Yorkers have left the city or are hesitant to get out and about again , too .
“ Every time it rained in our backyard , there went our business , ” said Mandy Misagal , who started Trophy in 2007 along with two business partners .
Ultimately , Trophy couldn ’ t cut it .
It closed its doors on August 30 .
“ Every turn we took , it was like , what if we end @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s the scary thing about it , ” Misagal said .
“ The choice is pulling the plug completely on your business or being in debt by the end of it.
” The economy is a network of causes and effects , and nothing happens in isolation .
Jed Kolko , chief economist at the jobs website Indeed , pointed to the effects work-from-home trends have on businesses .
Overall , nationally , Indeed ’ s jobs postings are about 19 percent below where they were last year ( at the worst @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ) , but metro areas are the ones that have seen the biggest declines — places like New York , San Francisco , and Seattle .
“ In those places , retail and other local services are especially suffering , ” he said .
“ If people are working at home , they are not going out and spending the way that they used to.
” Adair Morse , an associate professor of finance at the Berkeley Hass School of Business , said that policymakers ’ failure to understand small business as a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ they set up to help them .
For example , her research looking at Oakland , California , found that PPP loans were effective in keeping microbusinesses with just a handful of employees afloat , but for businesses with more workers , that was less often the case .
Many minority-owned businesses were shut out of the loans or struggled to get them as well .
” We really need to think about the size of small businesses and how it can support the different classes , ” Morse said .
This is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ permanent one The belief that reopening would be a panacea for small business was wrong .
That belief is also part of what is making it so hard for them to make it through .
Policies to support small businesses were designed for short-term dips , not the long , deep economic slog we ’ re in for .
“ We just didn ’ t understand that it wasn ’ t about just getting through it and then figuring out how small businesses would recover from that couple-month shock , it ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ nowhere near what they used to be , ” Morse said .
Morse , who helped structure California ’ s small business rebuilding fund , said she believes the best course of action would be to focus on supporting small businesses that are showing a capacity to recover , ones that are not necessarily doing spectacularly , but ones that aren ’ t doing half-bad .
“ When you keep some places from falling , you ’ re able to have spillovers to have other ones survive , ” she said .
Ozimek @ @ @ @ @ @ @ doing okay during the current moment risks leaving behind businesses that were just fine ahead of the pandemic and will be fine once again once the virus is under control .
He and John Lettieri from the think tank Economic Innovation Group crafted a business relief proposal later included in a legislative package put forth by Republican Sens .
Marco Rubio and Susan Collins .
“ We need to help business make it through this temporary adjustment to get back to normal in the future ” “ We need to help business make @ @ @ @ @ @ @ back to normal in the future , ” he said .
“ Grocery stores are not always going to be this busy .
Home Depot is not always going to be this busy.
” There are multiple policy-related solutions that could help small businesses in a more sustained way — grants , a bailout , or low- or zero-interest , long-term loans that they ’ ll have a lot of time to pay back .
“ The best , as an economist , that I can think of doing is coming up with @ @ @ @ @ @ @ interest rate , ” Morse said .
Small businesses are a vital part of the American economy .
But we can ’ t expect consumers to save them — many people are afraid of getting sick and of losing their jobs , and they ’ re just not living their lives as they normally would .
I love sitting in dive bars playing cards with friends , but if you open my favorite bar up tomorrow while Covid-19 is still out there , I ’ m not going .
Part of Navy Pier @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is that it hopes that will help it and the businesses it houses survive by limiting operational expenses .
That still leaves everyone figuring out what to do in the meantime .
Huebner has an invitation to put up a pop-up store at Chelsea Market in New York for a few months this fall .
Navy Pier has laid off more than half of its staff , and many of those who are still working are on partial furlough .
Hart is throwing her energy into her main bakery location on Chicago ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the space to make it safer , narrowing her menu , and building a website to beef up online sales and pickups .
“ There ’ s a ton of people who just don ’ t want to come in , so it ’ s not just about what we offer , it ’ s about what people prefer , ” she said .
She is also working with other restaurateurs and businesses in the area to make it more of a collective attraction for visitors .
They built a boardwalk and are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ Eat , play , socialize , relax , wear a mask.
” Help keep Vox free for all Millions turn to Vox each month to understand what ’ s happening in the news , from the coronavirus crisis to a racial reckoning to what is , quite possibly , the most consequential presidential election of our lifetimes .
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Navy Pier is one of Chicago’s main attractions. Home to more than 70 businesses, the complex on the shore of Lake Michigan is normally filled with crowds on a summer day.
“Navy Pier is rocking, there’s people everywhere, there’s excitement, there’s fireworks, it’s a good time at Navy Pier,” said Stephanie Hart, the owner of Brown Sugar Bakery, which has two locations, one on the South Side of Chicago and the other at Navy Pier. This year, she says, “it just wasn’t the same.”
The pier shut down when the pandemic hit in March, and then reopened in June. According to Payal Patel, its communications director, attendance was just 15 percent this summer from the one before. It shuttered again after Labor Day and now plans to reopen in 2021.
“It was heartbreaking, not just about my business, but to see Navy Pier in that kind of condition,” Hart said.
During the pandemic, much of the conversation around small businesses has focused on lockdowns and reopening — just let things open back up again, the line of thinking goes, and everything will be okay. But the reality of the situation is that for many businesses, that’s just not the case. According to Yelp, more than 160,000 US businesses on its platform have closed since March 1, nearly 100,000 of them permanently. Data from Homebase, a team management software company, shows that the number of hours worked at small businesses is still about 20 percent below January.
“People are not comfortable going to public places yet. We’ve tried to put so many safety measures in place, but all of that, essentially, is not going to matter if people will not come,” Patel said.
You can’t force business as usual when life is not. Many businesses already operating with low margins pre-pandemic can’t survive under health-related restrictions that, while incredibly important, make staying afloat extremely difficult.
Beyond the restrictions, there are also broader issues afoot. With a deadly virus still spreading, many Americans simply aren’t falling over themselves to go out and consume. Millions of people have lost their jobs or are afraid they might, so they’re not as eager to spend their money on things they don’t perceive as necessary.
“Customer is king in the United States, so what they want, they will get, but they don’t want anything right now”
That leaves small businesses fighting for their lives.
Eric Huebner, who owns a gift shop called Best Gift Idea Ever Chicago at Navy Pier, has pulled out every stop he can think of to keep his business running. He set up a GoFundMe page to try to raise money, applied for a Paycheck Protection Act loan, and once he began collecting unemployment benefits, he put some of that money toward his business. He started selling his products via Facebook, too.
When the pier reopened, at first his sales were decent; he estimates he took in 60 to 70 percent of normal revenue. But then at the end of July, business fell off a cliff. “A $900 day could go to a $90 day,” he said.
Policies designed to help small- and medium-sized businesses are insufficient, in no small part because of this promise of reopening that fails to comprehend the depth and length of the crisis many of them are facing. Reopening the economy can’t save small business, and the false hope that it can is part of what is killing it.
“Customer is king in the United States, so what they want, they will get, but they don’t want anything right now,” said Claudia Sahm, the director of macroeconomic policy at the Washington Center for Equitable Growth and former Federal Reserve economist. “They can’t afford it, or they don’t want to go get it, or something’s holding them back.”
Consumers are spending less and spending differently
Even before pandemic-related lockdowns took hold nationwide, consumers began to change their behavior. They started steering clear of restaurants and staying off of airplanes. Then, the lockdowns resulted in a huge decline in traffic across industries — restaurants and bars, travel and hospitality, fitness and beauty — and subsequent layoffs. During the spring, you heard some economists and experts talking about a V-shaped recovery, the idea that just as quickly as the economy had contracted, it would also be able to recover. But the thing is, you can’t turn the economy back on like a light switch, especially when the virus isn’t under control.
Some people, including small-business owners, experts, and government leaders, are “focused too much on the lockdowns by themselves and not the actual risk of the virus, which is a major disruption to business,” said Adam Ozimek, an economist at the freelance platform Upwork and formerly of Moody’s Analytics.
Ozimek has experienced the problem firsthand: He is one of the owners of Decades, a sort of upscale entertainment complex with a bowling alley, arcade, restaurant, and bar, in Lancaster, Pennsylvania. After shutting down in March, Decades is now doing outdoor dining and takeout. It has some indoor activity within health guidelines, too. Still, the business is seeing weak demand. It’s at just 28 percent of revenue from last year.
Decades got a PPP loan, which is a forgivable loan if the business spends it to keep workers on the payroll for a certain amount of time, and a grant from the state. It’s still in the red. “We ran out of cash in September, and now we’re putting money into the business,” Ozimek said.
According to data from OpenTable, which tracks restaurant reservations and traffic, seated dining in the US is still down more than 50 percent year-over-year. A survey the company did of in the US and Canada found a quarter of respondents say they dine out once a week, but it’s still not “anywhere near as often as they did before — and it’s going to be a long time before they do,” said OpenTable CEO Debby Soo in an email. She also warned that things are about to get worse, not better: “The colder months will present new challenges for restaurants, especially considering the majority of diners view outdoor dining as safer.”
OpenTable has forecast one in four restaurants could permanently close due to Covid-19, though it notes that in countries such as Japan and Germany, which have done a better job of controlling the pandemic, the industry has rebounded.
OpenTable has forecast one in four restaurants could permanently close due to Covid-19.
Yelp found that while consumer interest (defined as US reviews, photos, and page views) has increased since the pandemic first set in in late March, compared this time last year, it’s still down about 33 percent. The same goes for gyms.
Erin Suggs, a hairstylist in California, recently told me that when her salon reopened for a while in the spring, business was much slower than it was in normal times — despite seeing the protests with people declaring they wanted a haircut on TV. “I was having cancellations all over the place,” she said.
The way consumers are and aren’t spending their money is not necessarily a linear story. Some of what’s changed is what people are spending on. Instead of going to the restaurant, they’re going to the grocery store. Instead of buying a dress at the local boutique, they’re ordering sweatpants on Amazon. Spending so much time at home has made people more interested in home-improvement projects, meaning trips to Home Depot.
While there was a steep decline in personal consumption expenditures in March and April, it rebounded in subsequent months. One issue still bearing out in the data is the effect of the additional $600 in unemployment insurance benefits to people who lost their jobs, which was in place during much of the spring and summer but came to an end on July 31. US consumer spending started to slow down in August, and as Reuters notes, spending on services is still 10 percent below where it was in before Covid-19 hit.
“This is a big deal,” Sahm said. “If services don’t come back, we’re really screwed, because that’s a big part of GDP.”
The Opportunity Insights Economic Tracker out of Harvard shows that total consumer spending across the US is still down by 7 percent compared to January, but that varies significantly across sectors. Restaurants and hotels are down more than 25 percent, transportation nearly 50 percent, entertainment and recreation 60 percent.
Businesses are experiencing the pandemic differently
Ruben Alonso III, the president of AltCap, a community development financial institution based in Kansas City that has supported numerous small businesses throughout the pandemic, told me the effects of the pandemic “was all over the board” locally. “You saw some businesses struggling and closing even and others flourishing.”
Not all small businesses are alike, even in the same industry, and whether or not they’re able to survive depends on a lot of factors — where they are, what they do, whether they’re able to pivot, how much debt and risk their owners are and are not willing to take on. Some of their fate is in their own hands, but not all of it.
Before the pandemic, Kiffany Bosserman’s company, Cottontale, largely entailed selling all-natural cotton candy at events. Once Covid-19 kicked in and events were shut down, she “pivoted hard,” investing in a dessert tricycle to pop up at local restaurants and coffee houses. Now, she’s in the process of setting up a storefront.
She’s gotten a loan from AltCap with a zero percent interest rate for the first year and thinks that will be enough to keep going, but it’s not easy. The corporate events that were the business’ bread and butter aren’t coming back fast, and while smaller events are happening, people prefer pre-packaged desserts to the live service. “We hustled and figured it out,” said Bosserman, who runs the business with her husband. “We’re not going out to eat all the time, but we made the sacrifices.”
“You saw some businesses struggling and closing even and others flourishing”
Around reopening, some businesses saw a pretty immediate recovery thanks to pent-up demand, but eventually, that diminished and things evened out. “People are still coming in, even though they’re still working at 50 percent capacity, but that demand is not quite the level it was pre-Covid,” said Megan Crook, advancement and external affairs officer at AltCap.
Sunny Burden, who works at a pizza restaurant in Chattanooga, Tennessee, told me that business “plummeted” around the time they started indoor dining. “It’s kind of just now in the past month, not even, starting to kind of pick back up, there are tourists coming through,” she said.
For some businesses, there are workarounds for the situation — they can have few workers, reduce inventory, and find ways to run more efficiently. But that doesn’t solve the problem for, say, a gym that has invested in machinery and still has to pay rent, or a restaurant that even running at its leanest still can’t get customers in the door.
Trophy Bar in Brooklyn seemed as well poised as any small business to survive the pandemic — business was good pre-pandemic, it got a PPP loan for the holdover, and once restaurants and bars in New York were allowed to reopen with outdoor seating, it had a sizable yard to put back to use.
But following legal guidelines upon reopening meant Trophy could accommodate just eight tables safely and had to close by 11 pm. About half of its staff didn’t want to come back, either because they’d moved away or were afraid for their safety. Many New Yorkers have left the city or are hesitant to get out and about again, too. “Every time it rained in our backyard, there went our business,” said Mandy Misagal, who started Trophy in 2007 along with two business partners.
Ultimately, Trophy couldn’t cut it. It closed its doors on August 30. “Every turn we took, it was like, what if we end up in way more debt? That’s the scary thing about it,” Misagal said. “The choice is pulling the plug completely on your business or being in debt by the end of it.”
The economy is a network of causes and effects, and nothing happens in isolation. Jed Kolko, chief economist at the jobs website Indeed, pointed to the effects work-from-home trends have on businesses. Overall, nationally, Indeed’s jobs postings are about 19 percent below where they were last year (at the worst, they were down by 40 percent), but metro areas are the ones that have seen the biggest declines — places like New York, San Francisco, and Seattle. “In those places, retail and other local services are especially suffering,” he said. “If people are working at home, they are not going out and spending the way that they used to.”
Adair Morse, an associate professor of finance at the Berkeley Haas School of Business, said that policymakers’ failure to understand small business as a heterogeneous group led to failures on how they set up to help them. For example, her research looking at Oakland, California, found that PPP loans were effective in keeping microbusinesses with just a handful of employees afloat, but for businesses with more workers, that was less often the case. Many minority-owned businesses were shut out of the loans or struggled to get them as well. ”We really need to think about the size of small businesses and how it can support the different classes [of businesses],” Morse said.
This is a long-term problem — but not a permanent one
The belief that reopening would be a panacea for small business was wrong. That belief is also part of what is making it so hard for them to make it through. Policies to support small businesses were designed for short-term dips, not the long, deep economic slog we’re in for.
“We just didn’t understand that it wasn’t about just getting through it and then figuring out how small businesses would recover from that couple-month shock, it’s this lingering shock that their revenues are nowhere near what they used to be,” Morse said.
Morse, who helped structure California’s small business rebuilding fund, said she believes the best course of action would be to focus on supporting small businesses that are showing a capacity to recover, ones that are not necessarily doing spectacularly, but ones that aren’t doing half-bad. “When you keep some places from falling, you’re able to have spillovers to have other ones survive,” she said.
Ozimek warned that focusing too hard on businesses doing okay during the current moment risks leaving behind businesses that were just fine ahead of the pandemic and will be fine once again once the virus is under control. He and John Lettieri from the think tank Economic Innovation Group crafted a business relief proposal later included in a legislative package put forth by Republican Sens. Marco Rubio and Susan Collins.
“We need to help business make it through this temporary adjustment to get back to normal in the future”
“We need to help business make it through this temporary adjustment to get back to normal in the future,” he said. “Grocery stores are not always going to be this busy. Home Depot is not always going to be this busy.”
There are multiple policy-related solutions that could help small businesses in a more sustained way — grants, a bailout, or low- or zero-interest, long-term loans that they’ll have a lot of time to pay back.
“The best, as an economist, that I can think of doing is coming up with a product that is an incredibly affordable interest rate,” Morse said.
Small businesses are a vital part of the American economy. But we can’t expect consumers to save them — many people are afraid of getting sick and of losing their jobs, and they’re just not living their lives as they normally would. I love sitting in dive bars playing cards with friends, but if you open my favorite bar up tomorrow while Covid-19 is still out there, I’m not going.
Part of Navy Pier’s calculation in shutting down entirely is that it hopes that will help it and the businesses it houses survive by limiting operational expenses. That still leaves everyone figuring out what to do in the meantime.
Huebner has an invitation to put up a pop-up store at Chelsea Market in New York for a few months this fall. Navy Pier has laid off more than half of its staff, and many of those who are still working are on partial furlough. Hart is throwing her energy into her main bakery location on Chicago’s South Side, making adjustments to the space to make it safer, narrowing her menu, and building a website to beef up online sales and pickups. “There’s a ton of people who just don’t want to come in, so it’s not just about what we offer, it’s about what people prefer,” she said.
She is also working with other restaurateurs and businesses in the area to make it more of a collective attraction for visitors. They built a boardwalk and are putting together events. The message: “Eat, play, socialize, relax, wear a mask.”


vox--2020-09-30--The emergency is happening right now

The emergency is happening right now

The two biggest moments of the first 2020 Biden-Trump presidential debate , when put together , reveal just how much danger American democracy is in .
The first moment came when moderator Chris Wallace asked President Trump to condemn white supremacists and tell them to refrain from violence .
When Trump demanded a specific group to criticize , Vice President Joe Biden supplied one : the Proud Boys .
Trump did the opposite .
“ Proud Boys , stand back and stand by , ” the president said , immediately adding : “ I ’ ll tell you what , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ about antifa and the left.
” “ Standing down and standing by sir , ” the group ’ s official account wrote on Telegram , a messaging app commonly used by extremists .
The second moment came at the very end , during a discussion of Trump ’ s ( false ) claims about widespread voter fraud in the 2020 election .
Wallace asked Trump if he would “ urge his supporters to stay calm ” and “ pledge tonight that you will not declare victory until the election has been independently certified.
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ the opposite , calling on his fans to engage in behavior that sounds a lot like voter intimidation : These were both moments when Trump was asked to explicitly affirm baseline principles of American democracy , the kind of thing so basic you can ’ t imagine them being asked in a previous presidential debate .
Instead , he told a violent far-right group to “ stand by.
” He called on his supporters to head to the polls and “ watch ” what ’ s happening — specifically in Philadelphia , a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ together here leads to a very scary four : The president seems to be actively stoking violent conflict surrounding American elections .
“ What would you say if you saw it in another country ?
A democratic emergency , ” writes Brendan Nyhan , a political scientist at Dartmouth College .
Trump has smashed the rules of democracy There have been ominous signs on the peaceful election front already .
Trump supporters have already disrupted early voting in Virginia ; Donald Trump Jr. called on supporters to join a Trump “ army ” @ @ @ @ @ @ @ We can ’ t yet know for sure whether Trump ’ s debate night rhetoric will escalate this , directly causing acts of violence related to the election .
Maybe it will , maybe it won ’ t .
But the fact that I even have to say “ maybe ” should underscore how profoundly fucked up this all is .
The president of the United States should not have a hard time condemning far-right militants and calling for a peaceful election .
Trump ’ s behavior is the sort of thing you @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , especially ones that had recently experienced civil war .
These are places where key political actors don ’ t accept the rules of the democratic game and are willing to take up arms if they ’ re defeated .
These are the kinds of places where leaders call on friendly militias to “ stand by.
” But Trump clearly doesn ’ t care about democracy .
The litany of anti-democratic behaviors — suborning neutral institutions like the Justice Department , turning foreign policy into an extension of his reelection campaign , openly @ @ @ @ @ @ @ authoritarian behaviors — should at this point be familiar to every politically engaged American .
During this election , Trump has taken the rules of the democratic game and smashed them — much as he did the rules of the Tuesday debate with his incessant interruptions and outbursts .
He has repeatedly and falsely claimed that the election will be rigged against him , including during the debate , and refused to promise a “ peaceful transition ” if he loses .
To put it crudely , Trump has adopted the political attitude @ @ @ @ @ @ @ : My opponents can not win , and if they do , I simply will not accept it .
He has been able to get away with this because the Republican Party has refused to abandon him , and nobody expects the first debate to be a breaking point on that front .
The effects of all this on a democratic system are corrosive .
At its most fundamental level , democracy depends on all major political players agreeing to accept what happens in elections .
If one faction doesn ’ t , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ rules , there ’ s nothing to force them to comply other than , well , force .
Terrifyingly , Trump has introduced that prospect into modern American politics .
His approach to politics is one that , in other countries , causes the breakdown of democratic political systems and constitutional crises .
Rhetoric that seems to stoke election-related violence is another significant step in that direction .
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The two biggest moments of the first 2020 Biden-Trump presidential debate, when put together, reveal just how much danger American democracy is in.
The first moment came when moderator Chris Wallace asked President Trump to condemn white supremacists and tell them to refrain from violence. When Trump demanded a specific group to criticize, Vice President Joe Biden supplied one: the Proud Boys. Trump did the opposite.
“Proud Boys, stand back and stand by,” the president said, immediately adding: “I’ll tell you what, somebody’s got to do something about antifa and the left.” “Standing down and standing by sir,” the group’s official account wrote on Telegram, a messaging app commonly used by extremists.
The second moment came at the very end, during a discussion of Trump’s (false) claims about widespread voter fraud in the 2020 election. Wallace asked Trump if he would “urge his supporters to stay calm” and “pledge tonight that you will not declare victory until the election has been independently certified.” Trump responded by once again doing the opposite, calling on his fans to engage in behavior that sounds a lot like voter intimidation:
I’m urging my supporters to go in to the polls and watch very carefully, because that’s what has to happen. I am urging them to do it. As you know today, there was a big problem. In Philadelphia, they went in to watch. They’re called poll watchers. They were thrown out. They weren’t allowed to watch. You know why? Because bad things happen in Philadelphia. Bad things.
These were both moments when Trump was asked to explicitly affirm baseline principles of American democracy, the kind of thing so basic you can’t imagine them being asked in a previous presidential debate.
Instead, he told a violent far-right group to “stand by.” He called on his supporters to head to the polls and “watch” what’s happening — specifically in Philadelphia, a majority-minority city. Putting two and two together here leads to a very scary four: The president seems to be actively stoking violent conflict surrounding American elections.
“What would you say if you saw it in another country? A democratic emergency,” writes Brendan Nyhan, a political scientist at Dartmouth College.
Trump has smashed the rules of democracy
There have been ominous signs on the peaceful election front already. Trump supporters have already disrupted early voting in Virginia; Donald Trump Jr. called on supporters to join a Trump “army” that would provide “election security.”
We can’t yet know for sure whether Trump’s debate night rhetoric will escalate this, directly causing acts of violence related to the election. Maybe it will, maybe it won’t.
But the fact that I even have to say “maybe” should underscore how profoundly fucked up this all is.
The president of the United States should not have a hard time condemning far-right militants and calling for a peaceful election. Trump’s behavior is the sort of thing you expect in very weak and young democracies, especially ones that had recently experienced civil war. These are places where key political actors don’t accept the rules of the democratic game and are willing to take up arms if they’re defeated. These are the kinds of places where leaders call on friendly militias to “stand by.”
But Trump clearly doesn’t care about democracy. The litany of anti-democratic behaviors — suborning neutral institutions like the Justice Department, turning foreign policy into an extension of his reelection campaign, openly stating his admiration for foreign dictators’ authoritarian behaviors — should at this point be familiar to every politically engaged American.
During this election, Trump has taken the rules of the democratic game and smashed them — much as he did the rules of the Tuesday debate with his incessant interruptions and outbursts.
He has repeatedly and falsely claimed that the election will be rigged against him, including during the debate, and refused to promise a “peaceful transition” if he loses.
To put it crudely, Trump has adopted the political attitude of a would-be dictator or post-conflict warlord: My opponents cannot win, and if they do, I simply will not accept it. He has been able to get away with this because the Republican Party has refused to abandon him, and nobody expects the first debate to be a breaking point on that front.
The effects of all this on a democratic system are corrosive. At its most fundamental level, democracy depends on all major political players agreeing to accept what happens in elections. If one faction doesn’t, and simply refuses to abide by the rules, there’s nothing to force them to comply other than, well, force.
Terrifyingly, Trump has introduced that prospect into modern American politics. His approach to politics is one that, in other countries, causes the breakdown of democratic political systems and constitutional crises. Rhetoric that seems to stoke election-related violence is another significant step in that direction.


vox--2020-09-30--Vote-by-mail is not full of fraud, despite Trump’s debate claims

Let ’ s get this out of the way : Mail-in voting is not full of fraud .
President Donald Trump spent the tail end of the first presidential debate of 2020 on a tirade against voting by mail , which American voters are expected to do in greater numbers than ever in this election .
“ A solicited ballot is okay , ” Trump claimed on Tuesday .
“ You ’ re soliciting , you ’ re asking , they send it back , you send it back .
I did that .
They ’ re sending millions of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s fraud.
” Trump appears to be drawing a distinction between “ absentee voting ” — where voters typically request a ballot — and “ vote-by-mail , ” where election officials send ballots to all eligible registered voters .
States such as Oregon , Washington , Colorado , and Utah practice vote-by-mail , in which if you ’ re registered to vote in an election , you ’ re sent a ballot that you can then send back via the mail or drop off at an official location or secure dropbox .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ pandemic , many more states are sending ballots to registered voters .
States like California , where counties already had many voters casting ballots by mail , are now sending ballots to registered voters .
Others , like Vermont and New Jersey , are mailing out ballots for the first time .
In total , nine states , plus the District of Columbia , are sending all registered voters mail ballots this year .
( Montana is allowing each county to decide . )
Other states fall somewhere in between : Some are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ themselves , to all registered voters .
Others still require voters to request ballots but have waived the requirement of providing a legitimate reason for voting absentee , or have allowed the pandemic to count as an accepted reason .
But , in all cases , there ’ s an additional step voters have to take .
Either way , Trump ’ s claims that vote-by-mail is full of fraud are unfounded .
Voting fraud , in general , is rare .
In Oregon , which has been voting by mail for about @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of possible voter fraud to law enforcement in 2016 .
Of those , 22 people — representing just 0.0001 percent of all ballots cast that year — were found guilty of having voted in two states .
Another analysis by the Washington Post and the nonprofit Electronic Registration Information Center found officials in Colorado , Washington , and Oregon referred 372 possible cases to law enforcement of double voting or voting on behalf of a dead person , out of about 14.6 million mail-in votes in the 2016 and 2018 general elections .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ of all ballots .
This year , American voters could be voting in record numbers by mail , and experts told me this could put pressure on election officials , especially in those states that have never conducted a universal vote-by-mail election before .
Some experts and voting advocates worry this could cause problems that disrupt voting or disenfranchise some voters .
But it ’ s not tied to malfeasance , though that ’ s harder to see when you have a president who just spent a portion of a nationally televised debate @ @ @ @ @ @ @ mail-in ballots do have a higher rejection rate than in-person voting , mostly because of human errors like failing to sign a ballot , or filling it out incorrectly , or if the ballot arrives past the deadline .
These are legitimate concerns with mail-in voting ( which is why doing it early makes a big difference ) , but they can happen whether this is “ vote by mail ” or “ absentee ” voting .
And those problems can be partly remedied with good public outreach and awareness campaigns , robust @ @ @ @ @ @ @ give voters opportunities to correct mistakes , and more resources to administer elections .
Problems with elections — either in polling places or by mail — happen in , well , every election , and as America changes the way it votes , more issues are going to arise .
But Trump ’ s insistence on discrediting voting by mail , a system that works and is very popular in both the Republican- and Democratic-leaning states that have it , undermines Americans ’ trust in elections and the democratic process .
And that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Trump ’ s diatribe against voting by mail .
By sowing these conspiracies about rampant fraud , he is harming Americans ’ faith in the election results , and trying to frame the process as rigged and flawed from the start .
This could depress turnout , but it also lays the groundwork for him , or his backers , to challenge the results .
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Let’s get this out of the way: Mail-in voting is not full of fraud.
President Donald Trump spent the tail end of the first presidential debate of 2020 on a tirade against voting by mail, which American voters are expected to do in greater numbers than ever in this election.
“A solicited ballot is okay,” Trump claimed on Tuesday. “You’re soliciting, you’re asking, they send it back, you send it back. I did that. They’re sending millions of ballots all over the country. There’s fraud.”
Trump appears to be drawing a distinction between “absentee voting” — where voters typically request a ballot — and “vote-by-mail,” where election officials send ballots to all eligible registered voters. States such as Oregon, Washington, Colorado, and Utah practice vote-by-mail, in which if you’re registered to vote in an election, you’re sent a ballot that you can then send back via the mail or drop off at an official location or secure dropbox.
This year, because of the coronavirus pandemic, many more states are sending ballots to registered voters. States like California, where counties already had many voters casting ballots by mail, are now sending ballots to registered voters. Others, like Vermont and New Jersey, are mailing out ballots for the first time. In total, nine states, plus the District of Columbia, are sending all registered voters mail ballots this year. (Montana is allowing each county to decide.)
Other states fall somewhere in between: Some are sending ballot applications, but not ballots themselves, to all registered voters. Others still require voters to request ballots but have waived the requirement of providing a legitimate reason for voting absentee, or have allowed the pandemic to count as an accepted reason. But, in all cases, there’s an additional step voters have to take.
Either way, Trump’s claims that vote-by-mail is full of fraud are unfounded.
Voting fraud, in general, is rare. In Oregon, which has been voting by mail for about two decades, officials referred 54 cases of possible voter fraud to law enforcement in 2016. Of those, 22 people — representing just 0.0001 percent of all ballots cast that year — were found guilty of having voted in two states.
Another analysis by the Washington Post and the nonprofit Electronic Registration Information Center found officials in Colorado, Washington, and Oregon referred 372 possible cases to law enforcement of double voting or voting on behalf of a dead person, out of about 14.6 million mail-in votes in the 2016 and 2018 general elections. That comes out to about 0.0025 percent of all ballots.
Vox is part of Vox Media. Find more coverage of the 2020 election across its other 13 networks: how to vote, in-depth analysis, and how policies will affect you, your state and the country over the next four years and beyond.
This year, American voters could be voting in record numbers by mail, and experts told me this could put pressure on election officials, especially in those states that have never conducted a universal vote-by-mail election before.
Some experts and voting advocates worry this could cause problems that disrupt voting or disenfranchise some voters. But it’s not tied to malfeasance, though that’s harder to see when you have a president who just spent a portion of a nationally televised debate alleging exactly that.
And typically, mail-in ballots do have a higher rejection rate than in-person voting, mostly because of human errors like failing to sign a ballot or filling it out incorrectly or if the ballot arrives past the deadline.
These are legitimate concerns with mail-in voting (which is why doing it early makes a big difference), but they can happen whether this is “vote by mail” or “absentee” voting. And those problems can be partly remedied with good public outreach and awareness campaigns, robust procedures like “cure” processes that give voters opportunities to correct mistakes, and more resources to administer elections.
Problems with elections — either in polling places or by mail — happen in, well, every election, and as America changes the way it votes, more issues are going to arise. But Trump’s insistence on discrediting voting by mail, a system that works and is very popular in both the Republican- and Democratic-leaning states that have it, undermines Americans’ trust in elections and the democratic process.
And that’s the most dangerous part of Trump’s diatribe against voting by mail. By sowing these conspiracies about rampant fraud, he is harming Americans’ faith in the election results, and trying to frame the process as rigged and flawed from the start. This could depress turnout, but it also lays the groundwork for him, or his backers, to challenge the results.


vox--2020-09-30--The first post-debate polls say Biden won

To get a methodologically rigorous look at who “ won ” the first presidential debate between Donald Trump and Joe Biden — if winning is defined as helping their presidential campaign ’ s chances — you ’ ll have to wait a bit longer .
The indicators we have right now are necessarily incomplete and limited ; they ’ re focus groups of tiny , handpicked samples of undecided voters , or polls of people who watched the debate rather than the electorate at large , or just pundits making stuff up .
Plus , the true impact of a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ war fought in the hours and days afterward .
Keeping these limitations in mind , overall those preliminary findings so far look better for Biden .
CBS News and YouGov have been tracking respondents in battleground states , and they were able to quickly contact some of those respondents and ask those who watched the Tuesday debate what they thought .
Overall , 48 percent said Biden won the debate , while 41 percent said Trump won , and 10 percent said it was a tie .
As CBS elections and survey director @ @ @ @ @ @ @ this was pretty close to the support for each candidate going in .
Kabir Khanna of the CBS News Election and Survey Unit also points out that 42 percent of debate watchers said they thought worse of Trump afterward , and 24 percent said they thought better of him .
In contrast , 32 percent said they thought worse of Biden , while 38 percent thought better of him .
CNN and SSRS also conducted an instant poll of debate watchers , and they found a more lopsided margin in Biden ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ thought Biden won , while 28 percent thought Trump won .
Then we have the focus groups .
Republican pollster Frank Luntz convened a focus group of 16 purportedly undecided voters from swing states , and in general they had kinder things to say about Biden ’ s performance than Trump ’ s .
Asked to describe Trump in one word or phrase , the responses were : “ horrid , ” “ chaotic , ” “ unpolished , ” “ crackhead , ” “ ehh , ” “ puzzling , ” “ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ an ass , but a confident ass , ” “ classic Trump , ” “ forceful , ” “ unhinged , ” “ bully , ” “ arrogant , ” arrogant , ” “ typical.
” Then , asked to describe Biden , the responses were : “ I was surprised at how well he did , ” “ better than expected , ” “ definitely more professional than Trump and I think he ’ s more a people person , ” “ competent , ” “ politician , ” “ showed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , ” “ predictable , ” “ nice guy but lacking vision , ” “ coherent , ” “ leader , ” “ attentive and rehearsed , ” “ somewhat evasive , ” “ humanity and integrity , ” “ predictable , ” “ presidential.
” CNN convened its own focus group of undecided voters in Ohio , and most of them said that neither Biden nor Trump won the debate ( there were about a dozen , and one said Biden won while two said Trump won ) .
The bigger picture @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is currently losing to Biden , according to all the pre-debate polls .
So even something like a draw in the debate would effectively be a win for Biden .
Trump needed a strong performance to dramatically reshape the race , and the early indications are that he didn ’ t get that .
Help keep Vox free for all Millions turn to Vox each month to understand what ’ s happening in the news , from the coronavirus crisis to a racial reckoning to what is , quite possibly , the most @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Our mission has never been more vital than it is in this moment : to empower you through understanding .
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To get a methodologically rigorous look at who “won” the first presidential debate between Donald Trump and Joe Biden — if winning is defined as helping their presidential campaign’s chances — you’ll have to wait a bit longer.
The indicators we have right now are necessarily incomplete and limited; they’re focus groups of tiny, handpicked samples of undecided voters, or polls of people who watched the debate rather than the electorate at large, or just pundits making stuff up. Plus, the true impact of a debate is often determined in the spin war fought in the hours and days afterward.
Keeping these limitations in mind, overall those preliminary findings so far look better for Biden.
CBS News and YouGov have been tracking respondents in battleground states, and they were able to quickly contact some of those respondents and ask those who watched the Tuesday debate what they thought. Overall, 48 percent said Biden won the debate, while 41 percent said Trump won, and 10 percent said it was a tie. As CBS elections and survey director Anthony Salvanto pointed out on air, this was pretty close to the support for each candidate going in.
CBS NEWS BATTLEGROUND TRACKER
Instant poll of debate watchers: more say Joe Biden won tonight’s debate pic.twitter.com/dHZqV95wqB — CBS News Poll (@CBSNewsPoll) September 30, 2020
Kabir Khanna of the CBS News Election and Survey Unit also points out that 42 percent of debate watchers said they thought worse of Trump afterward, and 24 percent said they thought better of him. In contrast, 32 percent said they thought worse of Biden, while 38 percent thought better of him.
This is kinda interesting, aside from just who "won" debate
Slightly more watchers say debate made them think better of Biden (38%) than worse of him (32%): nets to +6
When it comes to Trump, more watchers say it made them think worse (42%) than better of him (24%): nets to -18 pic.twitter.com/0tVuOg1h3K — Kabir K. (@kabir_here) September 30, 2020
CNN and SSRS also conducted an instant poll of debate watchers, and they found a more lopsided margin in Biden’s favor. Sixty percent of their respondents thought Biden won, while 28 percent thought Trump won.
CNN instant poll of debate watcher: 60% say Biden won, 28% say Trump won. pic.twitter.com/5qIhkFQrwe — Oliver Darcy (@oliverdarcy) September 30, 2020
Then we have the focus groups. Republican pollster Frank Luntz convened a focus group of 16 purportedly undecided voters from swing states, and in general they had kinder things to say about Biden’s performance than Trump’s.
Related 3 winners and 4 losers from the first 2020 presidential debate
Asked to describe Trump in one word or phrase, the responses were: “horrid,” “chaotic,” “unpolished,” “crackhead,” “ehh,” “puzzling,” “un-American,” “unhinged,” “an ass, but a confident ass,” “classic Trump,” “forceful,” “unhinged,” “bully,” “arrogant,” arrogant,” “typical.”
Then, asked to describe Biden, the responses were: “I was surprised at how well he did,” “better than expected,” “definitely more professional than Trump and I think he’s more a people person,” “competent,” “politician,” “showed restraint and compassion,” “politician,” “predictable,” “nice guy but lacking vision,” “coherent,” “leader,” “attentive and rehearsed,” “somewhat evasive,” “humanity and integrity,” “predictable,” “presidential.”
CNN convened its own focus group of undecided voters in Ohio, and most of them said that neither Biden nor Trump won the debate (there were about a dozen, and one said Biden won while two said Trump won).
The bigger picture, of course, is that Trump is currently losing to Biden, according to all the pre-debate polls. So even something like a draw in the debate would effectively be a win for Biden. Trump needed a strong performance to dramatically reshape the race, and the early indications are that he didn’t get that.


vox--2020-09-30--Congress managed to agree on at least one thing: Avoiding a government shutdown

As lawmakers continue to argue over both coronavirus stimulus and a new Supreme Court nominee , Congress has managed to agree on at least one thing : avoiding a government shutdown .
The Senate on Wednesday passed a continuing resolution , or short-term bill , that will fund the government through December 11 , just ahead of the annual fiscal year deadline that comes at the end of September .
The legislation advanced 84-10 , and will allow government agencies to continue using federal funds until Congress passes a full spending bill for the 2021 fiscal year that begins October @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 359-57 last week , which means it now heads to President Donald Trump ’ s desk where he ’ s expected to sign it .
The resolution broadly continues funding for federal agencies at existing levels , but has an additional $ 8 billion for nutrition aid that Democrats pushed for as well as language renewing money for the USDA ’ s Commodity Credit Corporation , which Republicans were eager to include to maintain a source of aid for farmers .
While holding up government funding had been floated as a potential way @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Court confirmation process , House Speaker Nancy Pelosi ultimately dismissed the idea .
“ Well , none of us has any interest in shutting down government .
That has such a harmful and painful impact on so many people in our country , ” she said last week during an appearance on ABC .
Lawmakers from both parties wound up supporting this funding legislation , guaranteeing that , for now , a shutdown won ’ t be among the slew of problems Congress is already struggling to navigate .
Government funding is currently @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Congress While battles over government funding have resulted in extensive shutdowns in the past — including one in 2019 that lasted 35 days — this issue has proven to be one of the least contentious that lawmakers are dealing with amid an ongoing pandemic and a fierce Supreme Court fight .
For months , there ’ s been little movement on coronavirus aid even as millions of Americans continue to deal with layoffs and thousands of small businesses weigh permanently closing .
House Democrats on Monday unveiled a new version of the HEROES @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in stimulus that would extend a $ 600 weekly unemployment insurance supplement , fund another round of direct stimulus payments , and provide aid to state and city governments .
Pelosi and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin have also resumed their talks and met both Monday and Wednesday — though there ’ s little indication of new progress on a compromise .
The Senate is also gearing up for an intense confirmation fight over Trump ’ s Supreme Court nominee Judge Amy Coney Barrett , who would solidify a 6-3 conservative majority on the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ While Senate Republicans had refused to advance President Obama ’ s Supreme Court nominee in an election year , they ’ ve changed course and are moving to swiftly vet and hold a confirmation hearing for Barrett prior to the election on November 3 .
Democrats have emphasized that Barrett could be the deciding vote in undoing the Affordable Care Act , and are now in the process of weighing how they ’ ll respond to the confirmation process .
With its approval of the short-term funding bill , however , Congress has @ @ @ @ @ @ @ couple of months .
It will have to take up the issue again in December , presumably after the confirmation hearings and pandemic aid package are settled business .
Help keep Vox free for all Millions turn to Vox each month to understand what ’ s happening in the news , from the coronavirus crisis to a racial reckoning to what is , quite possibly , the most consequential presidential election of our lifetimes .
Our mission has never been more vital than it is in this moment : to empower you through @ @ @ @ @ @ @ explanatory journalism takes resources .
Even when the economy and the news advertising market recovers , your support will be a critical part of sustaining our resource-intensive work .
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If you haven ’ t , please consider helping everyone make sense of an increasingly chaotic world : Contribute today from as little as $ 3 .

As lawmakers continue to argue over both coronavirus stimulus and a new Supreme Court nominee, Congress has managed to agree on at least one thing: avoiding a government shutdown.
The Senate on Wednesday passed a continuing resolution, or short-term bill, that will fund the government through December 11, just ahead of the annual fiscal year deadline that comes at the end of September. The legislation advanced 84-10, and will allow government agencies to continue using federal funds until Congress passes a full spending bill for the 2021 fiscal year that begins October 1. The House passed the measure 359-57 last week, which means it now heads to President Donald Trump’s desk where he’s expected to sign it.
The resolution broadly continues funding for federal agencies at existing levels, but has an additional $8 billion for nutrition aid that Democrats pushed for as well as language renewing money for the USDA’s Commodity Credit Corporation, which Republicans were eager to include to maintain a source of aid for farmers.
While holding up government funding had been floated as a potential way for Congressional Democrats to delay the Supreme Court confirmation process, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi ultimately dismissed the idea. “Well, none of us has any interest in shutting down government. That has such a harmful and painful impact on so many people in our country,” she said last week during an appearance on ABC.
Lawmakers from both parties wound up supporting this funding legislation, guaranteeing that, for now, a shutdown won’t be among the slew of problems Congress is already struggling to navigate.
Government funding is currently one of the least contentious issues in Congress
While battles over government funding have resulted in extensive shutdowns in the past — including one in 2019 that lasted 35 days — this issue has proven to be one of the least contentious that lawmakers are dealing with amid an ongoing pandemic and a fierce Supreme Court fight.
For months, there’s been little movement on coronavirus aid even as millions of Americans continue to deal with layoffs and thousands of small businesses weigh permanently closing.
House Democrats on Monday unveiled a new version of the HEROES Act, which includes $2.2 trillion in stimulus that would extend a $600 weekly unemployment insurance supplement, fund another round of direct stimulus payments, and provide aid to state and city governments. Pelosi and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin have also resumed their talks and met both Monday and Wednesday — though there’s little indication of new progress on a compromise.
The Senate is also gearing up for an intense confirmation fight over Trump’s Supreme Court nominee Judge Amy Coney Barrett, who would solidify a 6-3 conservative majority on the high court if she is approved. While Senate Republicans had refused to advance President Obama’s Supreme Court nominee in an election year, they’ve changed course and are moving to swiftly vet and hold a confirmation hearing for Barrett prior to the election on November 3.
Democrats have emphasized that Barrett could be the deciding vote in undoing the Affordable Care Act, and are now in the process of weighing how they’ll respond to the confirmation process.
With its approval of the short-term funding bill, however, Congress has punted one of its debates for another couple of months. It will have to take up the issue again in December, presumably after the confirmation hearings and pandemic aid package are settled business.


vox--2020-09-30--The debate’s segment on race was doomed before it even began

At the first presidential debate of the 2020 general election on Tuesday , President Donald Trump was given ample room to dog whistle , stoke racism , and encourage white supremacists in response to a series of questions from moderator Chris Wallace .
When Wallace , who hosts Fox News Sunday , announced the debate topics on September 23 , he immediately faced criticism for planning to devote time to “ Race and Violence in Our Cities.
” Critics argued that associating race and violence in that way — conflating the two , even — was racist in and of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ crime is a matter of skin color .
The topic played into anti-Black fearmongering , the progressive Jewish organization Bend the Arc said , as well as age-old stereotypes about Black people being inherently more violent and prone to crime .
And Wallace ’ s framework was filled with exactly the sort of rhetoric activists were worried about ; Trump answered a question about why he was the better candidate on race with an extended statement on his support for the police , before going on to decry anti-racism training as a “ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that is “ teaching people to hate our country , ” and characterizing Biden ’ s presidency as one under which “ our suburbs would be gone.
” In answering Wallace ’ s questions this way , Trump prioritized pandering to white supremacists , skirting what ’ s at the center of one of the largest civil rights movements in American history : the enduring impact of systemic racism .
The questions allowed the president to embrace his ugliest impulses , but overall , the structure of the conversation meant it was dominated @ @ @ @ @ @ @ nature of most of this year ’ s protests , leaving little room for consideration of how violence in cities on the part of the state disproportionately affects Black Americans .
The debate gave Trump a platform to move his divisive rhetoric out of his rallies and Twitter feed and onto the international stage When Wallace launched into the topic of race , he failed to provide important and timely context .
Protests erupted across the country in late May after the police killing of George Floyd , who died after a Minneapolis @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for nearly nine minutes .
Video of the incident went viral , galvanizing millions to take to the streets in favor of justice for Black lives and intensifying attention on numerous police killings that followed .
The movement has pushed America to rethink its relationship with the police , and led to ongoing protests and uprisings .
Rather than giving this vital background before asking his first question on race — “ Why should voters trust you rather than your opponent to deal with the race issues facing this country over the next @ @ @ @ @ @ @ noted that Biden has said he was driven to launch his campaign due to Trump ’ s response to racist violence in Charlottesville , Virginia , in 2017 and that Trump has claimed he ’ s done much for Black Americans .
Ultimately , by failing to specify which “ race issues ” he was referring to , Wallace created an opportunity for the candidates to merely face off and point fingers about who was worse than whom .
Biden was first to answer .
In his response , he didn ’ t @ @ @ @ @ @ @ inequality , but targeted Trump for failing to support Black communities , recalling the moment Trump gassed protesters in Washington , DC ’ s Lafayette Square , and citing the scary but true statistic that 1 in 1,000 Black Americans have died of coronavirus under Trump ’ s leadership .
In response , Trump also didn ’ t talk about why he ’ d be better on race but immediately called out Biden for his role in crafting the 1994 crime bill that contributed to mass incarceration in the 1990s ( Black people @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and made misleading comments about Biden calling Black people superpredators .
Then things took a turn .
In the middle of chastising Biden for his role with the crime bill , Trump , unprompted , shifted to talk about the amount of support he said he has received from law enforcement , and highlighting unrest in cities across the country .
“ The people of this country want and demand law and order and you ’ re afraid to even say it , ” Trump told Biden .
Wallace responded to these comments @ @ @ @ @ @ @ answers focused on race , but by grouping the topics of race and violence together , he ’ d linked them before the debate even started , making this request a fool ’ s errand .
When Trump did attempt to focus on race , he did so by defending his decision to sign an executive order that cut funding to anti-bias training programs .
“ I ended it because it ’ s racist , ” Trump said .
“ A lot of people were complaining they were asked to do things that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ radical revolution that was taking place in our military , in our schools , all over the place.
” Trump went on to suggest that his biggest problem with the trainings is that they reject white supremacy , explaining that the courses posited a “ sort of a reversal ” that meant “ if you are a certain person , you had no status in life.
” This , he said , was unacceptable , because it led to instructors “ teaching people that our country is a horrible place , it ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ were teaching people to hate our country.
” In perhaps the most memorable exchange of the night , the president refused to condemn white supremacy .
Instead , pressed by Wallace and Biden , he told the far-right group the Proud Boys to “ stand back and stand by , ” before saying , “ somebody ’ s got ta do something about antifa and the left.
” Wallace failed to seek clarity on Trump ’ s message to the Proud Boys , but in the absence of further debate on the issue @ @ @ @ @ @ @ as a call to action .
Wallace ’ s framing of the debate topic doomed the discussion from the start It was not just the framing of the topic that provided an arena for statements seeming to support white supremacy and racism ; the way Wallace asked his questions also failed to provide much-needed nuance to the nominees ’ conversation .
For instance , when Wallace asked a question about ongoing protests in Portland , Oregon , he incorrectly claimed that many of the protests “ turned into riots , ” and asked @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to elected officials to “ knock off 100 days of riots.
” But few of the summer ’ s protests became “ riots.
” According to a September report from the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data project , more than 93 percent of the ongoing protests have been peaceful .
In fact , the report noted that violence only escalated with the increased police and National Guard presence Trump has touted .
Language like this reflects activists ’ concerns that the race segment would be a partisan one .
Wallace is a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the network ’ s most critical personalities on Trump — and the network has repeatedly equated race with violence amid the summer ’ s unrest .
Trump has done the same , calling protesters “ thugs ” and insisting they be met with force and “ law and order.
” In May , Trump notoriously tweeted that “ when the looting starts , the shooting starts , ” in response to unrest in Minneapolis .
For Fox News , Trump , and conservatives to equate race with violence only serves as a reminder @ @ @ @ @ @ @ join together and make their voices heard in the first place : The “ violence in our cities ” against Black Americans has long come from the state .
And any discussion of that violence must reflect that .
Help keep Vox free for all Millions turn to Vox each month to understand what ’ s happening in the news , from the coronavirus crisis to a racial reckoning to what is , quite possibly , the most consequential presidential election of our lifetimes .
Our mission has never been more vital than @ @ @ @ @ @ @ empower you through understanding .
But our distinctive brand of explanatory journalism takes resources .
Even when the economy and the news advertising market recovers , your support will be a critical part of sustaining our resource-intensive work .
If you have already contributed , thank you .
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At the first presidential debate of the 2020 general election on Tuesday, President Donald Trump was given ample room to dog whistle, stoke racism, and encourage white supremacists in response to a series of questions from moderator Chris Wallace.
When Wallace, who hosts Fox News Sunday, announced the debate topics on September 23, he immediately faced criticism for planning to devote time to “Race and Violence in Our Cities.” Critics argued that associating race and violence in that way — conflating the two, even — was racist in and of itself, creating the implication that violent crime is a matter of skin color. The topic played into anti-Black fearmongering, the progressive Jewish organization Bend the Arc said, as well as age-old stereotypes about Black people being inherently more violent and prone to crime.
And Wallace’s framework was filled with exactly the sort of rhetoric activists were worried about; Trump answered a question about why he was the better candidate on race with an extended statement on his support for the police, before going on to decry anti-racism training as a “racist” and “insane” scheme that is “teaching people to hate our country,” and characterizing Biden’s presidency as one under which “our suburbs would be gone.”
In answering Wallace’s questions this way, Trump prioritized pandering to white supremacists, skirting what’s at the center of one of the largest civil rights movements in American history: the enduring impact of systemic racism.
The questions allowed the president to embrace his ugliest impulses, but overall, the structure of the conversation meant it was dominated by surface-level ideas and falsehoods about the nature of most of this year’s protests, leaving little room for consideration of how violence in cities on the part of the state disproportionately affects Black Americans.
The debate gave Trump a platform to move his divisive rhetoric out of his rallies and Twitter feed and onto the international stage
When Wallace launched into the topic of race, he failed to provide important and timely context.
Protests erupted across the country in late May after the police killing of George Floyd, who died after a Minneapolis officer held a knee to his neck for nearly nine minutes. Video of the incident went viral, galvanizing millions to take to the streets in favor of justice for Black lives and intensifying attention on numerous police killings that followed. The movement has pushed America to rethink its relationship with the police, and led to ongoing protests and uprisings.
Rather than giving this vital background before asking his first question on race — “Why should voters trust you rather than your opponent to deal with the race issues facing this country over the next four years?” — Wallace instead noted that Biden has said he was driven to launch his campaign due to Trump’s response to racist violence in Charlottesville, Virginia, in 2017 and that Trump has claimed he’s done much for Black Americans.
Ultimately, by failing to specify which “race issues” he was referring to, Wallace created an opportunity for the candidates to merely face off and point fingers about who was worse than whom.
Biden was first to answer. In his response, he didn’t talk about his plans to address racial inequality, but targeted Trump for failing to support Black communities, recalling the moment Trump gassed protesters in Washington, DC’s Lafayette Square, and citing the scary but true statistic that 1 in 1,000 Black Americans have died of coronavirus under Trump’s leadership.
In response, Trump also didn’t talk about why he’d be better on race but immediately called out Biden for his role in crafting the 1994 crime bill that contributed to mass incarceration in the 1990s (Black people are disproportionately likely to be incarcerated) and made misleading comments about Biden calling Black people superpredators. Then things took a turn.
In the middle of chastising Biden for his role with the crime bill, Trump, unprompted, shifted to talk about the amount of support he said he has received from law enforcement, and highlighting unrest in cities across the country. “The people of this country want and demand law and order and you’re afraid to even say it,” Trump told Biden.
Wallace responded to these comments by telling the president he only wanted answers focused on race, but by grouping the topics of race and violence together, he’d linked them before the debate even started, making this request a fool’s errand.
When Trump did attempt to focus on race, he did so by defending his decision to sign an executive order that cut funding to anti-bias training programs.
“I ended it because it’s racist,” Trump said. “A lot of people were complaining they were asked to do things that were insane, that it was a radical revolution that was taking place in our military, in our schools, all over the place.”
Trump went on to suggest that his biggest problem with the trainings is that they reject white supremacy, explaining that the courses posited a “sort of a reversal” that meant “if you are a certain person, you had no status in life.” This, he said, was unacceptable, because it led to instructors “teaching people that our country is a horrible place, it’s a racist place, and they were teaching people to hate our country.”
In perhaps the most memorable exchange of the night, the president refused to condemn white supremacy. Instead, pressed by Wallace and Biden, he told the far-right group the Proud Boys to “stand back and stand by,” before saying, “somebody’s gotta do something about antifa and the left.”
Wallace failed to seek clarity on Trump’s message to the Proud Boys, but in the absence of further debate on the issue, the group reportedly took the remarks as a call to action.
Wallace’s framing of the debate topic doomed the discussion from the start
It was not just the framing of the topic that provided an arena for statements seeming to support white supremacy and racism; the way Wallace asked his questions also failed to provide much-needed nuance to the nominees’ conversation.
For instance, when Wallace asked a question about ongoing protests in Portland, Oregon, he incorrectly claimed that many of the protests “turned into riots,” and asked Biden whether he’d made calls to elected officials to “knock off 100 days of riots.”
But few of the summer’s protests became “riots.” According to a September report from the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data project, more than 93 percent of the ongoing protests have been peaceful. In fact, the report noted that violence only escalated with the increased police and National Guard presence Trump has touted.
Language like this reflects activists’ concerns that the race segment would be a partisan one. Wallace is a Fox News anchor — albeit one of the network’s most critical personalities on Trump — and the network has repeatedly equated race with violence amid the summer’s unrest.
Trump has done the same, calling protesters “thugs” and insisting they be met with force and “law and order.” In May, Trump notoriously tweeted that “when the looting starts, the shooting starts,” in response to unrest in Minneapolis.
For Fox News, Trump, and conservatives to equate race with violence only serves as a reminder why millions of people have chosen to join together and make their voices heard in the first place: The “violence in our cities” against Black Americans has long come from the state. And any discussion of that violence must reflect that.


vox--2020-09-30--The world already had low views of the US due to Trump. The debate didn’t help.

The first 2020 presidential debate between President Donald Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden was an international embarrassment , exposing the rot of US politics to the world .
The sorry display had pundits in France calling it “ worrying for American democracy , ” in Italy bemoaning that “ never had American politics sunk so low , ” and in the UK predicting “ this dark , horrifying , unwatchable fever dream will surely be the first line of America ’ s obituary.
” That ’ s shocking stuff , and it would only be natural to conclude @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s perceptions of the US .
But the reality is far more troubling : In the Trump era , the US is historically disliked because of the president and his inept leadership .
The debate didn ’ t shatter positive perceptions of the US .
They were already broken .
Polls show few really like America as much as they used to The Pew Research Center published a survey on global attitudes toward the US earlier this month , and the results weren ’ t pretty .
Some of America ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Germany , Japan , Canada , and Australia — now have record-low views of the US .
“ Since Donald Trump took office as president , the image of the United States has suffered across many regions of the globe , ” the report begins .
It continues : As a new 13-nation Pew Research Center survey illustrates , America ’ s reputation has declined further over the past year among many key allies and partners .
In several countries , the share of the public with a favorable view of the U.S. @ @ @ @ @ @ @ at any point since the Center began polling on this topic nearly two decades ago .
Let that sink in : Views of the US have dropped to a two-decade low in large part because of Trump and the way he has run things .
One of the top reasons cited is the country ’ s weak response to the coronavirus , with only 15 percent of respondents saying the US has done a good job .
Yet it ’ s clear from the chart below that even before the coronavirus pandemic hit @ @ @ @ @ @ @ his predecessor , Barack Obama .
How could it be otherwise ?
After all , Trump has spent much of his presidency bashing allies , hobnobbing with autocrats , and occasionally acting like an autocrat himself .
What Pew ’ s survey makes clear , then , is Trump ’ s shenanigans remain a global problem because they ’ re a globally recognized quantity .
The tarnishing of America ’ s standing thus began years ago — and the debate didn ’ t help reverse course .
Help keep Vox free for all @ @ @ @ @ @ @ understand what ’ s happening in the news , from the coronavirus crisis to a racial reckoning to what is , quite possibly , the most consequential presidential election of our lifetimes .
Our mission has never been more vital than it is in this moment : to empower you through understanding .
But our distinctive brand of explanatory journalism takes resources .
Even when the economy and the news advertising market recovers , your support will be a critical part of sustaining our resource-intensive work .
If you have already contributed , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ t , please consider helping everyone make sense of an increasingly chaotic world : Contribute today from as little as $ 3 .

The first 2020 presidential debate between President Donald Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden was an international embarrassment, exposing the rot of US politics to the world.
The sorry display had pundits in France calling it “worrying for American democracy,” in Italy bemoaning that “never had American politics sunk so low,” and in the UK predicting “this dark, horrifying, unwatchable fever dream will surely be the first line of America’s obituary.”
That’s shocking stuff, and it would only be natural to conclude that the debate radically shifted the globe’s perceptions of the US. But the reality is far more troubling: In the Trump era, the US is historically disliked because of the president and his inept leadership.
The debate didn’t shatter positive perceptions of the US. They were already broken.
Polls show few really like America as much as they used to
The Pew Research Center published a survey on global attitudes toward the US earlier this month, and the results weren’t pretty. Some of America’s allies — the UK, France, Germany, Japan, Canada, and Australia — now have record-low views of the US.
The key reason? Trump.
“Since Donald Trump took office as president, the image of the United States has suffered across many regions of the globe,” the report begins. It continues:
As a new 13-nation Pew Research Center survey illustrates, America’s reputation has declined further over the past year among many key allies and partners. In several countries, the share of the public with a favorable view of the U.S. is as low as it has been at any point since the Center began polling on this topic nearly two decades ago.
Let that sink in: Views of the US have dropped to a two-decade low in large part because of Trump and the way he has run things. One of the top reasons cited is the country’s weak response to the coronavirus, with only 15 percent of respondents saying the US has done a good job.
Yet it’s clear from the chart below that even before the coronavirus pandemic hit, Trump was already disliked compared to his predecessor, Barack Obama. How could it be otherwise? After all, Trump has spent much of his presidency bashing allies, hobnobbing with autocrats, and occasionally acting like an autocrat himself.
What Pew’s survey makes clear, then, is Trump’s shenanigans remain a global problem because they’re a globally recognized quantity. The tarnishing of America’s standing thus began years ago — and the debate didn’t help reverse course.