vox--2020-02-28--This week’s stock market meltdown, explained

The Dow Jones Industrial Average suffered its worst week in over a decade as investors who spent most of the winter shrugging off coronavirus-related concerns shifted into panic mode , rapidly wiping out a year ’ s worth of steady gains .
With Covid-19 not yet impacting Americans ’ daily lives — few people are confirmed to be sick , no Americans have died , no schools are closed , no cities are operating under broad quarantine measures , and few if any events have been canceled — the daily carnage in financial markets is the most concrete manifestation of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ financial panic , rather than briefings from the CDC or anything else related to the substance of the matter , that ’ s weighed on the mind of President Donald Trump and prompted a mini shake-up of the federal response with smoking-denialist Mike Pence officially designated as in charge of coordination .
More consequentially , the White House has moved to lock down the flow of information from government agencies to the public — requiring all public communications to be cleared through Pence ’ s office , apparently out of concern that career @ @ @ @ @ @ @ market ’ s response to their words .
This might make sense if you were worried that the weak stock market could cause a recession .
But that ’ s mostly backward .
Nothing particularly bad has happened in the United States .
Markets are down because events abroad imply bad business conditions are coming in the near future .
The trajectory of the financial markets in the weeks and months to come is mostly going to be driven by actual reports about revenue and profits , not by what government officials say @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , and substantive aspects of the epidemic are all fundamentally interrelated , and the best thing for the markets — just like for the general public — would simply be good , credible news about the course of the disease itself .
Trump , at his February 26 press conference , was at pains to distinguish the lethality of Covid-19 from some other emergent diseases that have been in the news in recent years .
“ This is a much different problem than Ebola , ” Trump said .
“ With Ebola — @ @ @ @ @ @ @ you disintegrated .
If you got Ebola , that was it .
This one is different .
Much different .
This is a flu .
This is like a flu .
And this is a much different situation than Ebola.
” It is true that Covid-19 is significantly less lethal than Ebola .
However , the fact that a very large share of infected people don ’ t become all that sick actually makes it harder to halt the spread of the disease .
People with mild cases can spend days walking around @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
And the case fatality rate from Covid-19 , while well below Ebola ’ s , is currently thought to be something like 10-20 times higher than for influenza .
So while you should feel reassured that we ’ re not talking about The Stand here , it is in fact a much more serious problem than a flu outbreak .
More to the point , from a financial market perspective , the outbreak doesn ’ t need to be apocalyptic to be bad for business .
Best practices for pandemic containment involve @ @ @ @ @ @ @ — canceling large events and broadly encouraging people to minimize both the quantity , duration , and closeness of their interpersonal interactions .
That ’ s fine for public health , but a well-implemented program of social distancing is necessarily going to mean huge amounts of lost revenue for movie theaters , restaurants , airlines , hotels , concert venues , and other places where groups of people gather for recreational purposes .
It will also inevitably mean less foot traffic to malls , fewer people visiting leisure destinations , and lots of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ unusually large numbers of workers taking sick leave or needing to work semi-distractedly while caring at home for children due to school closures .
This is not end-of-the-world stuff , but it ’ s really bad for business .
And while some kinds of businesses might simply weather a downturn and then bounce back later ( if nobody buys dishwashers during the height of a pandemic , pent-up sales will spike afterward ) , a lot of businesses are structured in a way that makes that impossible .
If restaurants suffer multiple weeks @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to fly half-empty aircraft , those sales are never coming back .
The technology world , which seems more attuned to social distancing practices than most of American society , is already canceling lots of conferences , which means reduced sales for all kinds of businesses that would count on conference-goers .
If the illness keeps spreading and cancellations hit broader sectors of the economy , there will be lots of short-term hits .
This is a particularly intense problem since many businesses have fixed costs — rent and perhaps debt service payments @ @ @ @ @ @ @ or not any money is coming in .
Consequently , even a temporary disruption could , if severe enough , push businesses into bankruptcy and cost permanent jobs .
There are big questions about the “ supply chain ” Dating back to before the apparent failure of containment in Hubei province , China , some sectors of the economy were beginning to worry about disruptions to the global supply chain .
The main factory for assembling iPhones in China , for example , has been shut down all month rather than reopening as @ @ @ @ @ @ @ New Year celebrations .
Apple can ’ t sell iPhones they can ’ t manufacture , so their share price has been especially hard hit .
The new problem for companies like Apple is that their supply chains are so sprawling and complex that they have multiple points of failure and are at risk of needing to repeatedly shut down even if the pandemic is successfully controlled in particular places .
Apple ’ s official list of suppliers includes locations in China , Korea , Japan , Taiwan , Malaysia , the Philippines @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Mexico , India , Indonesia , the UK , Germany , the Netherlands , Tennessee , Brazil , Vietnam , Israel , Ireland , Norway , France , Czechia , Malta , and sixteen different US states .
To an extent , this is redundancy .
Corning , for example , which makes the special glass for iPhones , has four different locations listed as Apple suppliers , so a quarantine order in one city wouldn ’ t shut down all Gorilla Glass supplies .
But by the same token , if any @ @ @ @ @ @ @ where people can ’ t come to work or where shipping routes are disrupted , that will make it difficult to keep iPhone production at full capacity .
The evolution of these elaborate global supply chains has been one of the major changes in the way the world does business during the past generation .
International trade used to mostly mean products in one country being shipped to customers in another country .
But modern trade often involves components from many countries being shipped to an assembly facility somewhere and then shipped out @ @ @ @ @ @ @ sphere has led to a lot of new efficiencies in manufacturing , but people have been fretting for a long time that it also makes the global economy more fragile — and we ’ re now witnessing that fragility in action .
Disruptions to the electronics supply chain are bad for business , of course , but other kinds of supply chain problems — like the inability to secure the Chinese-made precursor chemicals that pharmaceutical companies count on for manufacturing drugs — could have more dire consequences .
The feedback between economics and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ direction .
Many people getting sick would be economically costly , but genuine efforts to seal the borders in order to prevent infection would also be extremely costly since even really large countries like the United States are not set up for self-sufficiency .
Cars that are “ made in America ” incorporate foreign parts , and you ’ d need to shut down domestic industry to avoid dependence on foreign trade .
And of course no matter what we do at home , export sectors will be hurt by bad news from @ @ @ @ @ @ @ developing world crisis At the moment , infections have mostly occurred in China — a middle-income country with strong state institutions — or else in high-income countries like South Korea , Japan , and Singapore .
And the experience of Singapore , in particular , suggests that a country with a competent government , a high level of social trust , and a strong economy can manage an outbreak without chaos or large-scale loss of life .
The big exception to this trend , however , is Iran — a country whose economy @ @ @ @ @ @ @ hit and whose government has long shown minimal competency in domestic service provision and enjoys relatively little trust from the mass public .
In Iran , not coincidentally , the virus seems to have spread widely and is killing a lot of people — second only to the deaths counted up among the much-larger Chinese population .
Iran is no Singapore , but for all its problems it is very far from being the poorest country in the world or having the weakest public health infrastructure and basic state institutions .
The prospect @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , sub-Saharan Africa , or Central America is terrifying because the relatively low death rate currently observed among Covid-19 cases is contingent on the availability of respirators and other medical devices to treat acute cases .
The disease could be significantly more lethal in countries that are less generously endowed with hospital infrastructure , and in the context of a global outbreak , rich countries are unlikely to offer much help .
Poor countries , by definition , are not as economically significant as rich countries .
But the fact that Covid-19 could @ @ @ @ @ @ @ more lethal in some parts of the world is further weighing on world markets .
Much of the prosperity of the American agricultural sector in recent years has come from the fact that as poor countries have gotten less poor they ’ ve started eating way more meat , raising demand for American agricultural staples .
The situation facing the developing world is primarily scary in terms of the potential loss of life , not any impact on global commodity prices , but the impact there is clearly visible in financial markets as @ @ @ @ @ @ @ important per se to most people One thing that ’ s important to say is that while global financial markets are useful sources of information , their ups and downs are not actually important to the vast majority of people .
Eighty percent of the value of the stock market is owned by about 10 percent of the population , for starters , so the fluctuations of the markets mostly matter to rich people .
But more broadly , even if you do have a 401 ( k ) or a 529 account @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s at least not obvious that the stock market being down is bad for you .
If you are making regular contributions to your retirement account , for example , a stock market crash simply means that your dollar stretches further and you ’ re able to buy more shares .
If you ’ re 45 or under , what matters is the market ’ s value decades in the future , not today .
And while the coronavirus situation is fairly alarming , it doesn ’ t have any particular implications for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
That ’ s not to say information from stock prices should simply be ignored .
Share prices are going down because investors believe companies ’ short-term revenue and profit outlook has gotten much worse .
If that comes to pass , companies are going to end up laying off workers , and it ’ s at least possible that layoffs and lost household income will then lead to secondary and tertiary economic problems .
Since inflation expectations were already low and falling before the market started collapsing , the case for rapid @ @ @ @ @ @ @ interest rates seems strong .
The Fed doesn ’ t normally act except during regularly scheduled meetings , but the chair has the statutory authority to convene an emergency meeting ( or indeed even a conference call ) and make changes between meetings .
So far there is no sign of that happening , at least in part out of concern that it could exacerbate a sense of panic .
Nonetheless , the prospect of nobody doing anything is also somewhat panic-inducing .
It is worth emphasizing , however , that interest rates @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a limited amount that interest rate cuts can realistically accomplish .
For years , experts have been putting forward various ideas for ways Congress could act to create automatic fiscal backstops to prevent recession ( see my interviews with Claudia Sahm and Indi Dutta-Gupta on the Weeds podcast about two proposals ) but no action has been taken , so the US economy is to an extent flying without a net .
This might all be an overreaction One of the strengths of financial markets is that they are forward-looking .
In other @ @ @ @ @ @ @ things have happened to companies but because there is good reason to believe that bad things will happen in the future .
That makes them useful sources of information , but they ’ re not oracles .
Markets often exhibit herding behavior and excessive volatility , and even at best they are judging probabilities in an uncertain world , not issuing prophecies about the future .
There is a strong chance that coronavirus will become a global pandemic and good reason to believe a pandemic will be very destructive to business conditions .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ will continue to spread only very slowly .
And while Trump ’ s proclamation that warm weather will stop coronavirus is wildly premature , it ’ s at least plausible .
There is unquestionably a happy scenario in which we pass through several scary weeks but infections don ’ t get out of control , the virus starts to recede in April , and a vaccine is available next winter .
The crashing market says that investors are increasingly unwilling to bet on that happening , and scientifically speaking that appears to be @ @ @ @ @ @ @ foreordained , and with good organization and a little luck , it ’ s unquestionably possible that the kind of dire economic situation currently forecast by markets will be avoided .
Hope , however , is not much of a plan .
And Congress and the administration should be thinking harder about what they can do to backstop the economy in a real way rather than trying to “ reassure markets ” on television .

The Dow Jones Industrial Average suffered its worst week in over a decade as investors who spent most of the winter shrugging off coronavirus-related concerns shifted into panic mode, rapidly wiping out a year’s worth of steady gains.
With Covid-19 not yet impacting Americans’ daily lives — few people are confirmed to be sick, no Americans have died, no schools are closed, no cities are operating under broad quarantine measures, and few if any events have been canceled — the daily carnage in financial markets is the most concrete manifestation of the epidemic.
It’s the financial panic, rather than briefings from the CDC or anything else related to the substance of the matter, that’s weighed on the mind of President Donald Trump and prompted a mini shake-up of the federal response with smoking-denialist Mike Pence officially designated as in charge of coordination. More consequentially, the White House has moved to lock down the flow of information from government agencies to the public — requiring all public communications to be cleared through Pence’s office, apparently out of concern that career officials are being insufficiently mindful of the market’s response to their words.
This might make sense if you were worried that the weak stock market could cause a recession. But that’s mostly backward.
Nothing particularly bad has happened in the United States. Markets are down because events abroad imply bad business conditions are coming in the near future. The trajectory of the financial markets in the weeks and months to come is mostly going to be driven by actual reports about revenue and profits, not by what government officials say on television.
The economic, political, and substantive aspects of the epidemic are all fundamentally interrelated, and the best thing for the markets — just like for the general public — would simply be good, credible news about the course of the disease itself.
A pandemic is bad for business
Trump, at his February 26 press conference, was at pains to distinguish the lethality of Covid-19 from some other emergent diseases that have been in the news in recent years.
“This is a much different problem than Ebola,” Trump said. “With Ebola — we were talking about it before — you disintegrated. If you got Ebola, that was it. This one is different. Much different. This is a flu. This is like a flu. And this is a much different situation than Ebola.”
It is true that Covid-19 is significantly less lethal than Ebola. However, the fact that a very large share of infected people don’t become all that sick actually makes it harder to halt the spread of the disease. People with mild cases can spend days walking around shedding virus and going about their business. And the case fatality rate from Covid-19, while well below Ebola’s, is currently thought to be something like 10-20 times higher than for influenza. So while you should feel reassured that we’re not talking about The Stand here, it is in fact a much more serious problem than a flu outbreak.
More to the point, from a financial market perspective, the outbreak doesn’t need to be apocalyptic to be bad for business. Best practices for pandemic containment involve a lot of “social distancing” — canceling large events and broadly encouraging people to minimize both the quantity, duration, and closeness of their interpersonal interactions.
That’s fine for public health, but a well-implemented program of social distancing is necessarily going to mean huge amounts of lost revenue for movie theaters, restaurants, airlines, hotels, concert venues, and other places where groups of people gather for recreational purposes. It will also inevitably mean less foot traffic to malls, fewer people visiting leisure destinations, and lots of companies having their internal efficiency undermined by unusually large numbers of workers taking sick leave or needing to work semi-distractedly while caring at home for children due to school closures.
This is not end-of-the-world stuff, but it’s really bad for business. And while some kinds of businesses might simply weather a downturn and then bounce back later (if nobody buys dishwashers during the height of a pandemic, pent-up sales will spike afterward), a lot of businesses are structured in a way that makes that impossible. If restaurants suffer multiple weeks of unusually low sales or airlines need to fly half-empty aircraft, those sales are never coming back. The technology world, which seems more attuned to social distancing practices than most of American society, is already canceling lots of conferences, which means reduced sales for all kinds of businesses that would count on conference-goers. If the illness keeps spreading and cancellations hit broader sectors of the economy, there will be lots of short-term hits.
This is a particularly intense problem since many businesses have fixed costs — rent and perhaps debt service payments — that need to be made whether or not any money is coming in. Consequently, even a temporary disruption could, if severe enough, push businesses into bankruptcy and cost permanent jobs.
There are big questions about the “supply chain”
Dating back to before the apparent failure of containment in Hubei province, China, some sectors of the economy were beginning to worry about disruptions to the global supply chain.
The main factory for assembling iPhones in China, for example, has been shut down all month rather than reopening as expected at the end of the Lunar New Year celebrations. Apple can’t sell iPhones they can’t manufacture, so their share price has been especially hard hit. The new problem for companies like Apple is that their supply chains are so sprawling and complex that they have multiple points of failure and are at risk of needing to repeatedly shut down even if the pandemic is successfully controlled in particular places.
Apple’s official list of suppliers includes locations in China, Korea, Japan, Taiwan, Malaysia, the Philippines, Austria, Singapore, Belgium, Mexico, India, Indonesia, the UK, Germany, the Netherlands, Tennessee, Brazil, Vietnam, Israel, Ireland, Norway, France, Czechia, Malta, and sixteen different US states. To an extent, this is redundancy. Corning, for example, which makes the special glass for iPhones, has four different locations listed as Apple suppliers, so a quarantine order in one city wouldn’t shut down all Gorilla Glass supplies. But by the same token, if any of the four cities features a situation where people can’t come to work or where shipping routes are disrupted, that will make it difficult to keep iPhone production at full capacity.
The evolution of these elaborate global supply chains has been one of the major changes in the way the world does business during the past generation. International trade used to mostly mean products in one country being shipped to customers in another country. But modern trade often involves components from many countries being shipped to an assembly facility somewhere and then shipped out to customers globally. Innovation in this sphere has led to a lot of new efficiencies in manufacturing, but people have been fretting for a long time that it also makes the global economy more fragile — and we’re now witnessing that fragility in action.
Disruptions to the electronics supply chain are bad for business, of course, but other kinds of supply chain problems — like the inability to secure the Chinese-made precursor chemicals that pharmaceutical companies count on for manufacturing drugs — could have more dire consequences.
The feedback between economics and the epidemic also works in the other direction. Many people getting sick would be economically costly, but genuine efforts to seal the borders in order to prevent infection would also be extremely costly since even really large countries like the United States are not set up for self-sufficiency. Cars that are “made in America” incorporate foreign parts, and you’d need to shut down domestic industry to avoid dependence on foreign trade. And of course no matter what we do at home, export sectors will be hurt by bad news from abroad.
There could be a looming developing world crisis
At the moment, infections have mostly occurred in China — a middle-income country with strong state institutions — or else in high-income countries like South Korea, Japan, and Singapore.
And the experience of Singapore, in particular, suggests that a country with a competent government, a high level of social trust, and a strong economy can manage an outbreak without chaos or large-scale loss of life.
Unlike China, Singapore is not locking down its whole citizenry; but it is conducting tight surveillance, sophisticated contact tracing, and vigorously enforced quarantine measures at individual level. Applying an incredibly disciplined approach. https://t.co/wG9zS3GQQA — Jeremy Konyndyk (@JeremyKonyndyk) February 28, 2020
The big exception to this trend, however, is Iran — a country whose economy was in weak shape before the virus hit and whose government has long shown minimal competency in domestic service provision and enjoys relatively little trust from the mass public.
In Iran, not coincidentally, the virus seems to have spread widely and is killing a lot of people — second only to the deaths counted up among the much-larger Chinese population.
.@DrMikeRyan says high number of deaths in Iran — second to China — likely attributed to virus spreading much more broadly than authorities realized. So the death number looks high next to cases discovered -- but likely more to come soon, as @BogochIsaac and other predicted. — Julia Belluz (@juliaoftoronto) February 27, 2020
Iran is no Singapore, but for all its problems it is very far from being the poorest country in the world or having the weakest public health infrastructure and basic state institutions. The prospect of large-scale epidemics in places like India, sub-Saharan Africa, or Central America is terrifying because the relatively low death rate currently observed among Covid-19 cases is contingent on the availability of respirators and other medical devices to treat acute cases. The disease could be significantly more lethal in countries that are less generously endowed with hospital infrastructure, and in the context of a global outbreak, rich countries are unlikely to offer much help.
Poor countries, by definition, are not as economically significant as rich countries. But the fact that Covid-19 could become not just more widespread but significantly more lethal in some parts of the world is further weighing on world markets. Much of the prosperity of the American agricultural sector in recent years has come from the fact that as poor countries have gotten less poor they’ve started eating way more meat, raising demand for American agricultural staples. The situation facing the developing world is primarily scary in terms of the potential loss of life, not any impact on global commodity prices, but the impact there is clearly visible in financial markets as well.
The market decline is not important per se to most people
One thing that’s important to say is that while global financial markets are useful sources of information, their ups and downs are not actually important to the vast majority of people.
Eighty percent of the value of the stock market is owned by about 10 percent of the population, for starters, so the fluctuations of the markets mostly matter to rich people.
But more broadly, even if you do have a 401(k) or a 529 account that you care about, it’s at least not obvious that the stock market being down is bad for you. If you are making regular contributions to your retirement account, for example, a stock market crash simply means that your dollar stretches further and you’re able to buy more shares. If you’re 45 or under, what matters is the market’s value decades in the future, not today. And while the coronavirus situation is fairly alarming, it doesn’t have any particular implications for the economy over a long time horizon.
That’s not to say information from stock prices should simply be ignored. Share prices are going down because investors believe companies’ short-term revenue and profit outlook has gotten much worse. If that comes to pass, companies are going to end up laying off workers, and it’s at least possible that layoffs and lost household income will then lead to secondary and tertiary economic problems.
Since inflation expectations were already low and falling before the market started collapsing, the case for rapid action from the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates seems strong. The Fed doesn’t normally act except during regularly scheduled meetings, but the chair has the statutory authority to convene an emergency meeting (or indeed even a conference call) and make changes between meetings. So far there is no sign of that happening, at least in part out of concern that it could exacerbate a sense of panic. Nonetheless, the prospect of nobody doing anything is also somewhat panic-inducing.
It is worth emphasizing, however, that interest rates are already very low so there is a limited amount that interest rate cuts can realistically accomplish. For years, experts have been putting forward various ideas for ways Congress could act to create automatic fiscal backstops to prevent recession (see my interviews with Claudia Sahm and Indi Dutta-Gupta on the Weeds podcast about two proposals) but no action has been taken, so the US economy is to an extent flying without a net.
This might all be an overreaction
One of the strengths of financial markets is that they are forward-looking.
In other words, stocks fall not because bad things have happened to companies but because there is good reason to believe that bad things will happen in the future. That makes them useful sources of information, but they’re not oracles. Markets often exhibit herding behavior and excessive volatility, and even at best they are judging probabilities in an uncertain world, not issuing prophecies about the future.
There is a strong chance that coronavirus will become a global pandemic and good reason to believe a pandemic will be very destructive to business conditions.
It is also possible that the virus will continue to spread only very slowly. And while Trump’s proclamation that warm weather will stop coronavirus is wildly premature, it’s at least plausible. There is unquestionably a happy scenario in which we pass through several scary weeks but infections don’t get out of control, the virus starts to recede in April, and a vaccine is available next winter. The crashing market says that investors are increasingly unwilling to bet on that happening, and scientifically speaking that appears to be the right bet. But nothing is foreordained, and with good organization and a little luck, it’s unquestionably possible that the kind of dire economic situation currently forecast by markets will be avoided.
Hope, however, is not much of a plan. And Congress and the administration should be thinking harder about what they can do to backstop the economy in a real way rather than trying to “reassure markets” on television.


vox--2020-02-28--A federal appeals court just blocked Trump’s policy of sending migrants back to Mexico

A federal appeals court on Friday blocked President Donald Trump ’ s policy of sending migrants back to Mexico while they await decisions on their asylum applications in the US , removing one of the major obstacles asylum seekers have faced when arriving at the southern border .
The policy will be blocked immediately and , based on the Ninth Circuit ruling , asylum seekers should now be able to present themselves at ports of entry and be admitted to the US to pursue their asylum claims , rather than being forced to stay in Mexico .
But at this @ @ @ @ @ @ @ how the ruling will play out in practice , Anwen Hughes and Kennji Kizuka , both attorneys at Human Rights First , told Vox .
The Trump administration will have to provide new guidance to border officials , which could take time to implement .
Processing could also take a long time if asylum seekers decide to rush the ports and line up by the thousands , especially since the administration limits the number of migrants it screens each day .
And those who are admitted to the US could potentially be detained @ @ @ @ @ @ @ their immigration court hearings .
The Ninth Circuit found that the government had no authority to send asylum applicants to a neighboring country under immigration statute , or even based on long-standing practice .
The court also found that the program violated the US ’ s international obligations , codified in the Refugee Act , to not return asylum seekers to countries where they would likely face persecution .
The policy , known as the Migrant Protection Protocols ( MPP ) or the “ Remain in Mexico ” program , went into effect @ @ @ @ @ @ @ over 60,000 asylum seekers have been sent back to Mexico , where they ’ re under threat from drug cartels and kidnappers and are dependent on volunteers for basic supplies .
“ [ U ] ncontested evidence in the record establishes that non-Mexicans returned to Mexico under the MPP risk substantial harm , even death , while they await adjudication of their applications for asylum , ” the opinion states .
The Ninth Circuit ’ s decision , which the Trump administration will almost certainly appeal , will likely set up a high-stakes @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Supreme Court .
The ruling is a major loss to the administration , which has credited MPP for the recent 75 percent drop in arrests at the southern border , as well as for helping to all but end the practice of detaining families — since most have instead been sent back to Mexico under the program .
In a separate ruling issued Friday , the Ninth Circuit decided to continue blocking the Trump administration from implementing a rule that would bar migrants who cross the border outside of ports of entry from @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of immigrant advocates , that rule never went into effect — but together with MPP , it could have all but cut off access to the asylum system for migrants arriving at the southern border .
“ It ’ s time for the administration to follow the law and stop putting asylum seekers in harm ’ s way , ” American Civil Liberties Union attorney Judy Rabinovitz , who argued the MPP case at the Ninth Circuit , said in a statement .
Before MPP , both migrants who waited in line at @ @ @ @ @ @ @ between ports of entry would have been held at a US Customs and Border Protection processing facility until a border agent determined whether they should be released , transferred to immigration detention , or deported .
But under MPP , they had mostly been sent back to Mexico and allowed to enter the US only to attend their immigration court hearings .
They have been waiting in Mexican border cities , where some migrants are lucky to find housing in shelters , hotels , or rooms for rent .
But for more than @ @ @ @ @ @ @ tarps , some held up by sticks and stones , stand between them and the elements , even as temperatures drop below freezing .
The encampments are clustered around bridges linked to US ports of entry along the Rio Grande , where they rely on volunteers for basic necessities like clean drinking water and warm clothes .
In the camps , migrants remain at risk for extortion , kidnapping , and rape at the hands of cartels and other criminal actors .
The advocacy group Human Rights First has identified over 1,000 public @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , kidnapping , and other violent attacks against migrants sent back to Mexico under MPP .
In Matamoros , a city of about 500,000 people across the border from Brownsville , Texas , about 2,000 migrants had moved into makeshift tent encampments along the Rio Grande — so close to the US border that they can show up at the port for processing whenever their names are called .
Matamoros is a dangerous place : The US State Department has issued a Level 4 “ Do Not Travel ” advisory for the region @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , kidnapping , and robbery .
The encampment has grown to house several thousand people .
Some tents have been erected on land contaminated with feces due to a lack of public toilets , raising concerns about E. coli infections .
Migrants have no access to running water , leading to poor hygiene and the spread of rashes and funguses .
As flu season ramps up , there are concerns it will spread throughout the camps , too .
Basic health care services come from US-based nonprofits , including Global Response Management , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ cross the border daily , bringing supplies like bedding and food .
Sometimes , parents try to send their children to the port of entry alone so that US officials will be forced to process them , believing they will be safer in the US than in the camps , Yael Schacher , a senior US advocate at Refugees International , said .
Their settlements are so close to the port that they can wave to their children as they cross the border .
Trump administration officials have dismissed media reports of the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The US has continued to send aid to Mexico — $ 139 million in 2018 — but otherwise , advocates haven ’ t seen any evidence of a US presence on the Mexican side of the border administering aid to migrants .

The Supreme Court on Wednesday allowed President Donald Trump to continue sending migrants back to Mexico while they await decisions on their asylum applications in the US for the foreseeable future, setting up yet another high-stakes legal battle over one of the administration’s core immigration policies.
Without explaining their reasoning, the justices decided to allow the policy to remain in effect while the government appeals a lower court ruling that would have blocked the policy in California and Arizona, but kept it in place across all other areas of the southern border. If the Supreme Court decides to take up that case — the most likely outcome — the policy will remain in effect until the justices issue a final ruling. If not, then the lower court’s block will stand.
The policy, known as the Migrant Protection Protocols (MPP) or the “Remain in Mexico” program, went into effect in January 2019. Since then, more than 60,000 asylum seekers have been sent back to Mexico, where they’re under threat from drug cartels and kidnappers and are dependent on volunteers for basic supplies.
The Ninth Circuit had blocked MPP earlier this month, allowing migrants to present themselves at ports of entry and to be admitted to the US to pursue their asylum claims, rather than being forced to stay in Mexico. But it delayed implementing the block on the policy for a week to give the high court time to intervene.
“The Court of Appeals unequivocally declared this policy to be illegal,” Judy Rabinovitz, special counsel in the ACLU’s Immigrants’ Rights Project, said in a statement Wednesday. “The Supreme Court should as well. Asylum seekers face grave danger and irreversible harm every day this depraved policy remains in effect.”
It’s the third time that the justices have prevented lower courts from blocking Trump’s immigration policies. They also allowed the administration to implement a rule that prevents migrants from applying for asylum if they passed through another country other than their own before arriving in the US and a policy that imposes a wealth test on immigrant applying to enter the US, extend their visa, or convert their temporary immigration status into a green card.
The Trump administration had warned in court filings that blocking the policy would create a “substantial risk of immediate chaos on the border, threatening irreparable harm to the government, migrants, and the United States public.” The administration has credited the policy for the recent 75 percent drop in arrests at the southern border as well as for helping to all but end the practice of detaining families — since most have instead been sent back to Mexico under the program.
A Department of Justice spokesperson reiterated the importance of MPP to the administration’s efforts to improve border security in a statement on Wednesday.
“The Migrant Protection Protocols ... have been critical to restoring the government’s ability to manage the Southwest border and to work cooperatively with the Mexican government to address illegal immigration,” they said.
In its decision blocking the policy, the Ninth Circuit found that the government had no authority to send asylum applicants to a neighboring country under immigration statute, or even based on longstanding practice. The court also found that the program violated the US’s international obligations, codified in the Refugee Act, to not return asylum seekers to countries where they would likely face persecution.
“[U]ncontested evidence in the record establishes that non-Mexicans returned to Mexico under the MPP risk substantial harm, even death, while they await adjudication of their applications for asylum,” the opinion states.
The humanitarian crisis MPP has created
Before MPP, both migrants who waited in line at the border and those who were apprehended between ports of entry would have been held at a US Customs and Border Protection processing facility until a border agent determined whether they should be released, transferred to immigration detention, or deported. But under MPP, they are mostly being sent back to Mexico and allowed to enter the US only to attend their immigration court hearings.
They have been waiting in Mexican border cities, where some migrants are lucky to find housing in shelters, hotels, or rooms for rent. But for more than 5,000 others, only colorful tents and tarps, some held up by sticks and stones, stand between them and the elements, even as temperatures drop below freezing. The encampments are clustered around bridges linked to US ports of entry along the Rio Grande, where they rely on volunteers for basic necessities like clean drinking water and warm clothes.
In the camps, migrants remain at risk for extortion, kidnapping, and rape at the hands of cartels and other criminal actors. The advocacy group Human Rights First has identified more than 1,000 public reports of murder, torture, rape, kidnapping, and other violent attacks against migrants sent back to Mexico under MPP.
In Matamoros, a city of about 500,000 people across the border from Brownsville, Texas, about 2,000 migrants had moved into makeshift tent encampments along the Rio Grande — so close to the US border that they can show up at the port for processing whenever their names are called.
Matamoros is a dangerous place: The US State Department has issued a Level 4 “Do Not Travel” advisory for the region due to high rates of violent crime, kidnapping, and robbery.
The encampment has grown to house several thousand people. Some tents have been erected on land contaminated with feces due to a lack of public toilets, raising concerns about E. coli infections. Migrants have no access to running water, leading to poor hygiene and the spread of rashes and funguses. There are concerns the flu will spread throughout the camps, too.
Basic health care services come from US-based nonprofits, including Global Response Management, which are stretched thin. Other volunteers cross the border daily, bringing supplies like bedding and food.
Sometimes, parents try to send their children to the port of entry alone so that US officials will be forced to process them, believing they will be safer in the US than in the camps, Yael Schacher, a senior US advocate at Refugees International, said. Their settlements are so close to the port that they can wave to their children as they cross the border.
Trump administration officials have dismissed media reports of the dangers facing migrants waiting in Mexico. The US has continued to send aid to Mexico — $139 million in 2018 — but otherwise, advocates haven’t seen any evidence of a US presence on the Mexican side of the border administering aid to migrants.
Had the Ninth Circuit’s block on MPP gone into effect, it would have raised concerns that migrants could have overwhelmed the ports of entry. Processing could have taken a long time if asylum seekers decided to rush the ports and line up by the thousands, especially since the administration limits the number of migrants it screens each day. And those admitted to the US could have potentially been detained in US facilities while they wait for their immigration court hearings, Anwen Hughes and Kennji Kizuka, both attorneys at Human Rights First, told Vox.
Indeed, at least hundreds of migrants showed up at the ports after the Ninth Circuit’s initial ruling, some of them carrying copies of the Ninth Circuit’s decision blocking the policy. But they were later turned away by border agents wearing riot gear.


vox--2020-02-28--Trump announces the US and Taliban will soon sign a peace deal

President Donald Trump has just made his clearest statement yet that he intends to remove US troops from Afghanistan and end America ’ s longest war .
Last week , Secretary of State Mike Pompeo announced that the Trump administration and the hardline Islamist group had agreed to a “ nationwide reduction in violence across Afghanistan.
” If it more or less held , both sides would sign a peace deal on February 29 .
Clearly , the president feels the temporary ceasefire was a success : On Friday afternoon , Trump announced that the longtime warring parties will finally @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , at my direction , Secretary of State Mike Pompeo will witness the signing of an agreement with representatives of the Taliban , while Secretary of Defense Mark Esper will issue a joint declaration with the government of Afghanistan , ” Trump said in a statement released by the White House .
The signing would conclude years-long negotiations between the US and the Taliban .
But there ’ s still a lot to do before most of America ’ s 12,000 service members can leave Afghanistan .
The Taliban and the Afghan government @ @ @ @ @ @ @ agreement , a process that could take months to years , experts say .
Those talks , scheduled to start on March 10 , will be very tricky , because the insurgents reject Afghan President Ashraf Ghani ’ s administration as an American puppet with little control outside the capital .
Trump , though , offered qualified optimism in his statement .
“ If the Taliban and the government of Afghanistan live up to these commitments , we will have a powerful path forward to end the war in Afghanistan and bring our @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ Ultimately , it will be up to the people of Afghanistan to work out their future , ” Trump added .
“ We , therefore , urge the Afghan people to seize this opportunity for peace and a new future for their country.
” Afghan officials , on the other hand , seem a bit more skeptical .
“ We are giving it a sincere chance , ” a senior Afghan official , speaking on the condition of anonymity , told me last week after Pompeo ’ s announcement .
“ It @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , ” the official added .
The risk for Trump seems worth it , though .
When he announced an additional troop surge to Afghanistan in 2017 , he betrayed his longstanding unease with the war .
“ My original instinct was to pull out — and , historically , I like following my instincts , ” he told a military audience .
“ But all my life I ’ ve heard that decisions are much different when you sit behind the desk in the Oval Office ; in other words , when @ @ @ @ @ @ @ States.
” The calculus is different for him now that he ’ s up for reelection in November .
He wants to shore up support among his base and perhaps pick off some antiwar Democrats .
Bringing troops home — as he ’ s long shown a desire to do — could do the trick .
Even if this decision is mainly politically motivated , he ’ s still taking the biggest step of any president since 2001 toward ending the war in Afghanistan .

President Donald Trump has just made his clearest statement yet that he intends to remove US troops from Afghanistan and end America’s longest war.
Last week, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo announced that the Trump administration and the hardline Islamist group had agreed to a “nationwide reduction in violence across Afghanistan.” If it more or less held, both sides would sign a peace deal on February 29.
Clearly, the president feels the temporary ceasefire was a success: On Friday afternoon, Trump announced that the longtime warring parties will finally put pen to paper.
“Soon, at my direction, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo will witness the signing of an agreement with representatives of the Taliban, while Secretary of Defense Mark Esper will issue a joint declaration with the government of Afghanistan,” Trump said in a statement released by the White House.
The signing would conclude years-long negotiations between the US and the Taliban. But there’s still a lot to do before most of America’s 12,000 service members can leave Afghanistan.
The Taliban and the Afghan government need to come to their own peace agreement, a process that could take months to years, experts say. Those talks, scheduled to start on March 10, will be very tricky, because the insurgents reject Afghan President Ashraf Ghani’s administration as an American puppet with little control outside the capital.
Trump, though, offered qualified optimism in his statement. “If the Taliban and the government of Afghanistan live up to these commitments, we will have a powerful path forward to end the war in Afghanistan and bring our troops home,” he said.
“Ultimately, it will be up to the people of Afghanistan to work out their future,” Trump added. “We, therefore, urge the Afghan people to seize this opportunity for peace and a new future for their country.”
Afghan officials, on the other hand, seem a bit more skeptical. “We are giving it a sincere chance,” a senior Afghan official, speaking on the condition of anonymity, told me last week after Pompeo’s announcement. “It’s hard to trust the Taliban,” the official added.
The risk for Trump seems worth it, though. When he announced an additional troop surge to Afghanistan in 2017, he betrayed his longstanding unease with the war. “My original instinct was to pull out — and, historically, I like following my instincts,” he told a military audience. “But all my life I’ve heard that decisions are much different when you sit behind the desk in the Oval Office; in other words, when you’re President of the United States.”
The calculus is different for him now that he’s up for reelection in November. He wants to shore up support among his base and perhaps pick off some antiwar Democrats. Bringing troops home — as he’s long shown a desire to do — could do the trick.
Even if this decision is mainly politically motivated, he’s still taking the biggest step of any president since 2001 toward ending the war in Afghanistan.


vox--2020-02-28--It’s not overreacting to prepare for coronavirus. Here’s how.

This week , the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention told us to expect community spread of the novel coronavirus in the United States .
California announced a case with no known ties to previous cases , potentially a sign that community spread has already started .
Meanwhile , the World Health Organization raised its risk assessment worldwide to the highest level , as more countries — now nearly 50 — reported cases .
These developments have many Americans wondering — wait , are survival preparations now necessary ?
Is stockpiling food a sensible idea or a massive overreaction ?
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ planning for the worst ?
“ The most important recommendation is don ’ t panic , but prepare , ” Dr. Rebecca Katz , director of the Center for Global Health Science and Security at Georgetown University , told me .
“ We ’ re not going into a crazy movie situation where the world is on fire , but we may be going into a situation where there are people walking around who are sick.
” If the coronavirus spreads more widely in the US , having prepared for its arrival will @ @ @ @ @ @ @ loved ones , your neighbors , and people in your community .
You don ’ t need to take major steps to survive without electricity or water ( both should keep working just fine ) , but changing your habits and shopping patterns , and planning ahead , can protect you and others .
“ Preparing for the almost inevitable global spread of this virus , now dubbed COVID-19 , is one of the most pro-social , altruistic things you can do in response to potential disruptions of this kind , ” Zeynep @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , yeah , you should be taking some steps to get ready .
Here ’ s the reasonable person ’ s guide to coronavirus preparation , where we ( with help from public health experts ) try to help you not panic , but prepare .
Some of the most impactful steps to stop a coronavirus outbreak are ones we are all aware of but often find it hard to put into practice .
“ Wash your hands much more than you think you need to wash your hands , and try not @ @ @ @ @ @ @ told me .
“ It ’ s not satisfactory because people feel they should be doing much more , but at this point it ’ s the best advice we can be giving.
” According to the CDC , you should “ wash your hands often with soap and water for at least 20 seconds , especially after going to the bathroom ; before eating ; and after blowing your nose , coughing , or sneezing.
” If soap and water isn ’ t readily available and your hands are not visibly dirty @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
You should also avoid shaking hands , use a tissue when you blow your nose and put the tissue in the trash , and avoid touching your eyes , nose , and mouth .
“ General health maintenance is important , ” Harvard epidemiology professor Marc Lipsitch told me .
“ Quit smoking , if you smoke — that ’ s a good recommendation at all times but maybe some people will use this as extra motivation.
” Taking care of yourself will put you in a better position to weather the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ you never get sick .
2 ) You don ’ t need to wear a face mask if you ’ re well , but you should if you are sick In pictures from cities in China , South Korea , Singapore , and Japan , all of which have experienced significant coronavirus outbreaks , almost everyone is wearing face masks .
That prompted many Americans to wonder — should we be doing that too ?
The answer is that unless you are sick , it ’ s not a particularly good idea .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ people who are well wear a facemask to protect themselves from respiratory illnesses , including COVID-19 [ the disease caused by the novel coronavirus ] .
You should only wear a mask if a healthcare professional recommends it.
” “ The most important thing in the conversation about masks is that there is a shortage , ” Katz told me .
“ We need to make sure that we have enough for our front-line health care workers.
” That said , there ’ s an important use case for masks : If you @ @ @ @ @ @ @ people around you .
The CDC does recommend that people who show symptoms of Covid-19 wear a mask “ to help prevent the spread of the disease to others.
” “ If you are somebody who is sick and is coughing or sneezing , those surgical masks will capture most of your sneeze from possibly infecting somebody else , ” Katz told me , so they ’ re worth it in that case .
But for prevention , masks are hard to use properly and don ’ t do all that much , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ elsewhere .
3 ) If you get sick , you might be out of commission for a few days or weeks .
Get the things you ’ d need to manage that .
The majority of cases of Covid-19 don ’ t require hospitalization .
You might have a fever , feel very sick , and recover slowly over the course of a few weeks .
You can take steps in advance to make sure this isn ’ t too disruptive , and taking those steps now is a good idea .
“ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ thing you want to do is have to go to the store , ” Katz told me .
“ What do you want to have on hand ?
” Purchasing a couple of weeks ’ supply of foods you ’ d want while home sick with the flu is a good idea , as well as other essentials : toilet paper , cleaning supplies , laundry detergent .
We should be “ getting ready for the possibility that people will want to stay at home or be asked to stay at home , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ thinking about what you might need to buy in the next month , and trying to buy as much as possible of it now .
“ If you are somebody who takes daily medication , you want to have more than a week ’ s supply , and really , you want to have as much of that on hand as your insurance will allow you to have , ” Katz said .
“ People might want to slowly start to stock up on enough nonperishable food to last their households through several @ @ @ @ @ @ @ an intense wave of transmission in their community , ” risk communications experts Jody Lanard and Peter Sandman wrote last week .
( Social distancing refers to any measures to reduce human contact , like canceling events , working from home , or ordering food rather than going to the grocery store . )
None of these recommendations are specific to the coronavirus .
They would also be good advice if your town were about to experience a blizzard , a hurricane , or a flood .
Katz thinks that ’ s a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
In any disaster , it ’ s a good idea to plan to have what you need during a period where you might get stuck in your home .
The coronavirus doesn ’ t need to be wildly exceptional to warrant such preparations .
“ If there ’ s a situation where people in your community are sick , ” Katz asked me , “ do you want to potentially expose yourself for a toilet paper run ?
” Of course , not everyone can afford to stock up on a month @ @ @ @ @ @ @ space to store them .
But anything you can arrange ahead of time means one less inconvenience or one less trip while you ’ re sick .
4 ) Consider what you ’ d do if schools and day cares are closed In Japan and South Korea , schools are closed — and public health experts think there ’ s some chance that will happen here as well .
The closure of schools would be enormously disruptive to the lives of many families , and planning for that possibility might be one of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ you can do now .
It ’ s “ important to be at the family level doing some contingency planning for if schools are closed for a period of time , or if your day care is closed , ” Katz said .
“ I think it ’ s reasonably likely ” that schools will close , Lipsitch told me , though he noted that we do not have much evidence about whether children — who are disproportionately unaffected by the virus — play much role in spreading it , and that we @ @ @ @ @ @ @ as disruptive as closing schools .
The effect of coronavirus on children is one of the many critical research questions we don ’ t fully understand yet .
While most influenzas hit children and elderly people hardest , that ’ s not the pattern that has been observed with the coronavirus so far .
If that ’ s because they get infected but tend to have mild cases , then schools will be a major avenue for virus transmission and might need to close .
But if they don ’ t generally get @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of the most disruptive measures on the table — like widespread school closures — can be avoided .
Pandemics are scary .
The spread of the coronavirus within the US could be a significant disruption to many people ’ s lives , a health crisis for some smaller number of people , and a deadly tragedy for a still-smaller number .
“ It helps to be a little psychologically prepared for the possibility that life will be very different for a period of time , ” Lipsitch told me .
Processing that possibility @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the surprise of that , to some extent , before it happens.
” So coronavirus paranoia , if you ’ re experiencing some , isn ’ t silly or unreasonable — it ’ s part of the totally normal process of coming to grips with a significant problem .
“ The ‘ adjustment reaction ’ ” — that is , the stress , hypervigilance , obsessive reading about a crisis , imagining its effects on your family , and worrying — “ is a step that is hard to skip on the way @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and Sandman write .
“ Going through it before a crisis is full-blown is more conducive to resilience , coping , and rational response than going through it mid-crisis.
” So be forgiving of yourself if you ’ re having an “ adjustment reaction , ” or if your friends and loved ones are .
The spread of the coronavirus will be genuinely disruptive , difficult , and for some people dangerous .
Taking real steps to mitigate the effects it will have on you or your family isn ’ t a silly @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a responsible one .
Sign up for the Future Perfect newsletter and we ’ ll send you a roundup of ideas and solutions for tackling the world ’ s biggest challenges — and how to get better at doing good .
Future Perfect is funded in part by individual contributions , grants , and sponsorships .
Learn more here .

Editor’s note, March 31: There have been significant developments in the coronavirus pandemic since this story was last updated, and some details may no longer apply. For our most up-to-date coverage, visit our coronavirus hub. Here’s the CDC’s current public health guidance.
The novel coronavirus is continuing its spread in the United States. The number of people testing positive in the US has jumped every day for the past few weeks, with cases announced in more states. That’s despite serious limitations on testing, which means many US cases may be undiscovered.
The World Health Organization has declared the virus a global pandemic, and doctors in Italy — a country hit hard by the virus — warned the world that if we continue on the same trajectory, we’ll soon be out of hospital beds.
Around the US, events are being canceled, schools are closing, and public health officials are urging people to avoid public spaces as much as possible. “We are on the brink of experiencing a public health catastrophe,” argued Harvard epidemiologist Marc Lipsitch.
These fast-moving developments have many Americans wondering — wait, what preparations are now necessary? How does social distancing work, exactly? Is stockpiling food a sensible idea or a massive overreaction?
“The most important recommendation is don’t panic, but prepare,” Dr. Rebecca Katz, director of the Center for Global Health Science and Security at Georgetown University, told me in late February. “We’re not going into a crazy movie situation where the world is on fire, but we may be going into a situation where there are people walking around who are sick.”
Having supplies to wait out an illness at home, and reducing contact with others before you get sick, will benefit not just you but also your loved ones, your neighbors, and people in your community. You don’t need to take major steps to survive without electricity or water (both should keep working just fine), but changing your habits and shopping patterns and planning ahead can protect you and others.
“Preparing for the almost inevitable global spread of this virus, now dubbed COVID-19, is one of the most pro-social, altruistic things you can do in response to potential disruptions of this kind,” Zeynep Tufekci argued in Scientific American.
And yet, as risk communications expert Peter Sandman observed, many people “haven’t changed their daily lives much yet, or even planned much for the life changes that they sort-of suspect are just around the corner.”
If we’re going to stop the spread of the coronavirus before it’s a national catastrophe, that has to change.
So, yes, you should be taking some steps to get ready. Here’s the reasonable person’s guide to coronavirus preparation, where we (with help from public health experts) try to help you not panic, but prepare.
The CDC and the WHO recommend several basic measures to help prevent the spread of Covid-19: Wash your hands often for at least 20 seconds.
Cover your cough or sneeze with a tissue, then throw the tissue in the trash.
Clean and disinfect frequently touched objects.
Practice social distancing, and stay home when you are sick.
Contact a health worker if you have symptoms; fever and a dry cough are most common. Guidance may change. Stay informed, and stay safe, with Vox’s coronavirus coverage hub.
Some of the most impactful steps to stop a coronavirus outbreak are ones we are all aware of but often find it hard to put into practice.
“Wash your hands much more than you think you need to wash your hands and try not to touch your face,” Katz told me. “It’s not satisfactory because people feel they should be doing much more, but at this point, it’s the best advice we can be giving.”
According to the CDC, you should “wash your hands often with soap and water for at least 20 seconds, especially after going to the bathroom; before eating; and after blowing your nose, coughing, or sneezing.” If soap and water aren’t readily available and your hands are not visibly dirty, you can also use hand sanitizer.
You should also avoid shaking hands, use a tissue when you blow your nose and put the tissue in the trash, and avoid touching your eyes, nose, and mouth. “General health maintenance is important,” Harvard epidemiology professor Marc Lipsitch told me. “Quit smoking, if you smoke — that’s a good recommendation at all times, but maybe some people will use this as extra motivation.” Taking care of yourself will put you in a better position to weather the coronavirus and pays dividends even if you never get sick.
2) Stay away from public spaces as much as possible
The only way to slow the spread of the virus once there’s widespread community transmission in the US is to avoid being in close contact with large numbers of people.
Social distancing — a term that refers to any measures to reduce human contact, like canceling events, working from home, or ordering food rather than going to the grocery store — can help make the outbreak unfold more slowly, saving lives.
Conferences and large events should be canceled. At one Boston conference, more than 70 people caught the virus from a fellow attendee, and large conferences from AIPAC to CPAC have had attendees test positive. This is simply a matter of math — get enough people in a single place, and some of them will have coronavirus.
For that reason, many counties and states have prohibited large public gatherings, and many organizations — including Disney and the NBA — have canceled operations due to virus risk. But even if such gatherings aren’t prohibited in your area, don’t go.
“Conventions, parades, sports events, and other large public gatherings that risk transmission should be canceled or postponed,” Lipsitch said on March 11. “Efforts to reduce contacts should focus on the most vulnerable (elderly and those with certain serious chronic medical conditions), but not be restricted to them, because all of us can become infected and transmit the virus, even without severe symptoms.”
If you are able to work from home, you should do so; this makes public transit, offices and urban spaces less crowded for people who cannot work from home. Smaller gatherings where people are at least six feet away from each other are much safer.
3) If you get sick, you might be out of commission for a few days or weeks. Get the things you’d need to manage that.
The majority of cases of Covid-19 don’t require hospitalization. You might have a fever, feel very sick, and recover slowly over the course of a few weeks. You can take steps in advance to make sure this isn’t too disruptive, and taking those steps now is a good idea. (And if you do get sick, here’s the symptoms of Covid-19 — the most common are fever and a dry cough — and here’s how to self-isolate if recommended by a health professional to protect people in your home and community.)
“If you get sick, the last thing you want to do is have to go to the store,” Katz told me. “What do you want to have on hand?” Purchasing a couple of weeks’ supply of foods you’d want while home sick with the flu is a good idea. You might want medication for managing a fever, like Tylenol and ibuprofen, supplies for managing a cough, like cough syrup, liquids, or hard candies, and other essentials: toilet paper, cleaning supplies, laundry detergent.
We should be “getting ready for the possibility that people will want to stay at home or be asked to stay at home,” Lipsitch told me. That means thinking about what you might need to buy in the next month and trying to buy as much of it as possible now.
“If you are somebody who takes daily medication, you want to have more than a week’s supply, and really, you want to have as much of that on hand as your insurance will allow you to have,” Katz said.
“People might want to slowly start to stock up on enough nonperishable food to last their households through several weeks of social distancing at home during an intense wave of transmission in their community,” risk communications experts Jody Lanard and Peter Sandman wrote in January.
None of these recommendations are specific to the coronavirus. They would also be good advice if your town were about to experience a blizzard, a hurricane, or a flood. Katz thinks that’s a good way to think about the situation. In any disaster, it’s a good idea to plan to have what you need during a period where you might get stuck in your home. The coronavirus doesn’t need to be wildly exceptional to warrant such preparations.
“If there’s a situation where people in your community are sick,” Katz asked me, “do you want to potentially expose yourself for a toilet paper run?”
Of course, not everyone can afford to stock up on a month of supplies, and not everyone has space to store them. But anything you can arrange ahead of time means one less inconvenience or one less trip while you’re sick.
4) Consider what you’d do if schools and day cares are closed
Around the US, schools are closing — though even in areas that are the center of a viral outbreak, some districts are fighting to keep their schools open. Maryland announced they’re closing all schools for two weeks. Seattle is closing all schools for two weeks as well, and New Mexico for three. Hard-hit Santa Clara County, California, on the other hand, is keeping almost all of its schools open. Colleges and universities including Harvard, MIT, Stanford and UC Berkeley have shut down and told students not to come back from spring break. More closures are no doubt to come.
The closure of schools is enormously disruptive to the lives of many families, and planning for that possibility might be one of the most important forms of coronavirus preparation you can do now. It’s “important to be at the family level doing some contingency planning for if schools are closed for a period of time or if your day care is closed,” Katz said.
While most influenzas hit children and elderly people hardest, that’s not the pattern that has been observed with the coronavirus so far. If that’s because children get infected but tend to have mild cases, then schools will be a major avenue for virus transmission and need to close.
Unfortunately, school districts are having to make key decisions about whether to close before all this information is in, and many of them are sensibly erring on the cautious side.
5) Psychological preparation is important too
Pandemics are scary. The spread of the coronavirus within the US could be a significant disruption to many people’s lives, a health crisis for some smaller number of people, and a deadly tragedy for a still-smaller number.
“It helps to be a little psychologically prepared for the possibility that life will be very different for a period of time,” Lipsitch told me. Processing that possibility now can help us “get over the surprise of that, to some extent, before it happens.” So coronavirus paranoia, if you’re experiencing some, isn’t silly or unreasonable — it’s part of the totally normal process of coming to grips with a significant problem.
“The ‘adjustment reaction’” — that is, the stress, hypervigilance, obsessive reading about a crisis, imagining its effects on your family, and worrying — “is a step that is hard to skip on the way to the new normal,” Lanard and Sandman write. “Going through it before a crisis is full-blown is more conducive to resilience, coping, and rational response than going through it mid-crisis.”
So be forgiving of yourself if you’re having an “adjustment reaction” or if your friends and loved ones are. The spread of the coronavirus will be genuinely disruptive, difficult, and for some people dangerous. Taking real steps to mitigate the effects it will have on you or your family isn’t a silly thing to do — it’s a responsible one.
Sign up for the Future Perfect newsletter and we’ll send you a roundup of ideas and solutions for tackling the world’s biggest challenges — and how to get better at doing good.
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vox--2020-02-28--The pope’s plan to fight back against evil AI

On Friday , Pope Francis backed a document that outlines how artificial intelligence , including facial recognition technology , should be regulated .
This so-called “ Rome Call for AI Ethics ” carries the endorsement of the Vatican as well as Microsoft and IBM .
Believe it or not , the future of AI is actually one of the pope ’ s passion projects — and greatest worries .
The Vatican ’ s interest in the technology is hardly new , and several of its pontifical academies — essentially research societies under the Pope ’ s authority — are hard @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , and other emerging technologies will mean for the Catholic faith and humanity at large .
Still , the document is a sign that organized religion is increasingly interested in weighing in on the ethics of artificial intelligence and , in the case of the Vatican , working alongside large tech companies in the process .
Six general principles for the use of artificial intelligence are at the center of the Rome Call , which declares that ethics must be integral to an algorithm ’ s initial design .
But notably , none @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ideas .
The pope ’ s pledge embraces the values that many AI ethics experts have already called for by pointing to values of transparency , nondiscrimination , and the right to privacy .
That somewhat echoes some of the nonbinding AI guidelines the European Union released last year , as well as the Trump administration ’ s guidance for the federal regulation of artificial intelligence ( released in January ) .
“ AI systems must be conceived , designed and implemented to serve and protect human beings and the environment in which @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
“ This fundamental outlook must translate into a commitment to create living conditions ( both social and personal ) that allow both groups and individual members to strive to fully express themselves where possible.
” Alongside these principles is a mandate from the Vatican and its affiliates for AI to be “ explainable ” to humans .
In other words , as artificial intelligence is increasingly applied in consequential contexts — like algorithms that screen our resumes and determine whether we ’ re granted parole — we need to understand how artificially @ @ @ @ @ @ @ advocates argue that such “ explainability ” is one of the key ways we can hold artificial-intelligence-based systems accountable .
The Rome Call also emphasizes that artificial intelligence should not be discriminatory , echoing board concerns about algorithmic bias .
Depending on who builds them , how they ’ re built , and the data on which they ’ re trained , computer systems can end up mimicking and even amplifying societal racism , sexism , and other forms of bias .
This is bad , says the pope .
Also ( maybe @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of the most controversial applications of artificial intelligence .
This is a particularly buzzworthy topic , as the fallout of the Clearview AI scandal demonstrates how facial recognition technology raises significant concerns about security and human rights .
However , the Vatican ’ s new statement on the matter does not raise the idea of a complete ban or moratorium on facial recognition , which some critics of the technology say is necessary .
Instead , the Vatican simply seems to call for better rules to govern the tech .
“ New forms @ @ @ @ @ @ @ transparency and compliance with ethical principles , ” the document reads , “ especially for advanced technologies that have a higher risk of impacting human rights , such as facial recognition.
” The Catholic Church is actually no stranger to artificial intelligence .
In recent years , much of its focus on the technology has been in consultation with expert researchers in the field and representatives of major technology companies .
The Dominican Order has even supported a priest-led research organization called Optic since 2012 , which , among other things , researches @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
The organization also says it provides private consultations to leaders in the tech industry .
Meanwhile , the Vatican ’ s Pontifical Academy for Life has hosted workshops on artificial intelligence .
The effort extends further , as last year , two more pontifical academies — the Pontifical Academy of Social Sciences and the Pontifical Academy of Sciences — hosted a conference on the ethical questions raised by robotics and artificial intelligence .
These conferences have been attended by the likes of DeepMind CEO Demis Hassabis , Facebook computer scientist Yann LeCun @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
The Vatican ’ s much-covered first hackathon in 2018 was also supported by companies such as Google , Salesforce , and Microsoft .
The list of Silicon Valley stars hanging out in Rome goes on .
The Pope himself has personally met with Microsoft president Brad Smith , Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg , and Google ’ s Eric Schmidt .
Earlier this month , the Pope met Smith to discuss how artificial intelligence could serve the “ common good , ” according to Reuters .
So it might not be surprising that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ intelligence appears to mirror much of what tech giants are already saying : Regulate our new technology , but don ’ t ban it outright .
Keep in mind that , as Wired reported last year , tech companies have been actively trying to influence the rules that will govern this new technology .
Some , such as Microsoft , are even creating AI principles of their own .
There ’ s also the Partnership for AI , a corporate-funded nonprofit meant to study best practices for artificial intelligence that is supported by @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , Apple , and IBM , among other companies .
The Rome Call is just another sign that the Vatican is paying close attention to emerging technology .
And , for whatever it ’ s worth , tech companies seem eager to come along .
While new faith-filled robots and AI-inspired gods stand to shape conversations about religion in the 21st century , there are also complicated conversations between age-old religious institutions and powerful tech platforms that it would be a mistake to ignore .
Open Sourced is made possible by the Omidyar @ @ @ @ @ @ @ editorially independent and produced by our journalists .

On Friday, Pope Francis backed a document that outlines how artificial intelligence, including facial recognition technology, should be regulated. This so-called “Rome Call for AI Ethics” carries the endorsement of the Vatican as well as Microsoft and IBM. Believe it or not, the future of AI is actually one of the pope’s passion projects — and greatest worries.
The Vatican’s interest in the technology is hardly new, and several of its pontifical academies — essentially research societies under the Pope’s authority — are hard at work studying what AI, robotics, and other emerging technologies will mean for the Catholic faith and humanity at large. Still, the document is a sign that organized religion is increasingly interested in weighing in on the ethics of artificial intelligence and, in the case of the Vatican, working alongside large tech companies in the process.
Six general principles for the use of artificial intelligence are at the center of the Rome Call, which declares that ethics must be integral to an algorithm’s initial design. But notably, none of the outlined principles are particularly new ideas. The pope’s pledge embraces the values that many AI ethics experts have already called for by pointing to values of transparency, nondiscrimination, and the right to privacy. That somewhat echoes some of the nonbinding AI guidelines the European Union released last year, as well as the Trump administration’s guidance for the federal regulation of artificial intelligence (released in January).
From the “Rome Call for AI Ethics” Transparency: in principle, AI systems must be explainable; Inclusion: the needs of all human beings must be taken into consideration so that everyone can benefit and all individuals can be offered the best possible conditions to express themselves and develop; Responsibility: those who design and deploy the use of AI must proceed with responsibility and transparency; Impartiality: do not create or act according to bias, thus safeguarding fairness and human dignity; Reliability: AI systems must be able to work reliably; [and] Security and privacy: AI systems must work securely and respect the privacy of users.
“AI systems must be conceived, designed and implemented to serve and protect human beings and the environment in which they live,” the document reads. “This fundamental outlook must translate into a commitment to create living conditions (both social and personal) that allow both groups and individual members to strive to fully express themselves where possible.”
Alongside these principles is a mandate from the Vatican and its affiliates for AI to be “explainable” to humans. In other words, as artificial intelligence is increasingly applied in consequential contexts — like algorithms that screen our resumes and determine whether we’re granted parole — we need to understand how artificially intelligent technology makes decisions. AI ethics advocates argue that such “explainability” is one of the key ways we can hold artificial-intelligence-based systems accountable.
The Rome Call also emphasizes that artificial intelligence should not be discriminatory, echoing board concerns about algorithmic bias. Depending on who builds them, how they’re built, and the data on which they’re trained, computer systems can end up mimicking and even amplifying societal racism, sexism, and other forms of bias. This is bad, says the pope.
Also (maybe) bad: facial recognition, one of the most controversial applications of artificial intelligence. This is a particularly buzzworthy topic, as the fallout of the Clearview AI scandal demonstrates how facial recognition technology raises significant concerns about security and human rights. However, the Vatican’s new statement on the matter does not raise the idea of a complete ban or moratorium on facial recognition, which some critics of the technology say is necessary. Instead, the Vatican simply seems to call for better rules to govern the tech.
“New forms of regulation must be encouraged to promote transparency and compliance with ethical principles,” the document reads, “especially for advanced technologies that have a higher risk of impacting human rights, such as facial recognition.”
The Catholic Church is actually no stranger to artificial intelligence. In recent years, much of its focus on the technology has been in consultation with expert researchers in the field and representatives of major technology companies. The Dominican Order has even supported a priest-led research organization called Optic since 2012, which, among other things, researches AI and its potential to marginalize people. The organization also says it provides private consultations to leaders in the tech industry.
Meanwhile, the Vatican’s Pontifical Academy for Life has hosted workshops on artificial intelligence. The effort extends further, as last year, two more pontifical academies — the Pontifical Academy of Social Sciences and the Pontifical Academy of Sciences — hosted a conference on the ethical questions raised by robotics and artificial intelligence. These conferences have been attended by the likes of DeepMind CEO Demis Hassabis, Facebook computer scientist Yann LeCun, and even LinkedIn founder Reid Hoffman. The Vatican’s much-covered first hackathon in 2018 was also supported by companies such as Google, Salesforce, and Microsoft.
The list of Silicon Valley stars hanging out in Rome goes on. The Pope himself has personally met with Microsoft president Brad Smith, Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg, and Google’s Eric Schmidt. Earlier this month, the Pope met Smith to discuss how artificial intelligence could serve the “common good,” according to Reuters.
So it might not be surprising that the Vatican’s vision for artificial intelligence appears to mirror much of what tech giants are already saying: Regulate our new technology, but don’t ban it outright.
Keep in mind that, as Wired reported last year, tech companies have been actively trying to influence the rules that will govern this new technology. Some, such as Microsoft, are even creating AI principles of their own. There’s also the Partnership for AI, a corporate-funded nonprofit meant to study best practices for artificial intelligence that is supported by Google, Amazon, Facebook, Microsoft, Apple, and IBM, among other companies.
The Rome Call is just another sign that the Vatican is paying close attention to emerging technology. And, for whatever it’s worth, tech companies seem eager to come along. While new faith-filled robots and AI-inspired gods stand to shape conversations about religion in the 21st century, there are also complicated conversations between age-old religious institutions and powerful tech platforms that it would be a mistake to ignore.
Open Sourced is made possible by the Omidyar Network. All Open Sourced content is editorially independent and produced by our journalists.


vox--2020-02-28--Here are all the major tech conferences canceled so far because of coronavirus

The Covid-19 coronavirus is prompting major tech conferences around the world to cancel their events — so far , several major ones have been called off entirely , including Facebook ’ s annual F8 developer conference .
It ’ s an unprecedented disruption to the usual packed lineup of annual tech events every spring .
The cancellations of some of the biggest tech events of the year seem to be a sign of what ’ s to come in other sectors as fears mount that the coronavirus will become a pandemic .
The US tech industry shares close ties to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and some in the industry were so concerned about the virus that they took early precautions , like discouraging handshakes and requiring employees who have recently traveled to China to work from home .
Here ’ s a running list of notable tech conferences , which typically draw between 500 to 100,000 attendees a year , that have been canceled so far due to coronavirus : The tech event cancellations also come at the same time public health leaders are considering how other , larger global events outside of tech , like the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the outbreak continues to spread in the months ahead .
Japan ’ s prime minister recently took the drastic step of closing all of the country ’ s schools for a month to try to contain the virus ’ s spread .
Covid-19 has taken the lives of 2,867 people as of Friday and infected more than 80,000 people .
In the past week , the number of new cases of the virus outside of China , in the US , Italy , Japan , and other countries has been surging .
That @ @ @ @ @ @ @ there ’ s now less of a chance that it can be contained .
On Thursday , Facebook said that due to concerns about the virus , it ’ s canceling F8 — its biggest event of the year , which last year attracted thousands of attendees from dozens of countries .
Instead , it will put on smaller “ locally hosted events , videos and live streamed content.
” F8 is one of several big tech conferences , including Mobile World Congress in Barcelona , that has been canceled altogether or negatively @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Thursday , Microsoft and Epic Games pulled out of one of the video game industry ’ s major conferences , Game Developers Conference , in San Francisco on March 16-17 .
Industry leaders are particularly concerned about events in tech ’ s capital in the San Francisco Bay Area , which has some of the highest travel rates to and from China compared to other regions in the US .
Earlier this month , Facebook canceled a 5,000-person marketing event in San Francisco scheduled in March due to similar concerns .
And on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ declared the city to be in a state of emergency , although there are still zero confirmed cases of the novel coronavirus in the city .
Concerns are increasing after the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention ( CDC ) confirmed that a person in Solano County , in Northern California , has been diagnosed with the virus who seemingly had no ties to anyone overseas with the disease , suggesting that the coronavirus may now be spreading person-to-person in the US .
Meanwhile , some other major tech conferences , such as @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Francisco ’ s Moscone Center , which attracts some 40,000 attendees annually , carried on as planned this week and featured speakers from Facebook , Twitter , and Google .
IBM , AT & T Cybersecurity , and Verizon , however , pulled out over coronavirus fears .
Organizers reportedly encouraged attendees to knock elbows instead of shake hands and placed ample hand sanitizer stations in the conference halls .
Considering Facebook and other major tech companies have canceled or pulled out of conferences , it raises questions about whether other major conferences @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Apple are also scheduled to have major conferences in the San Francisco Bay Area in May and June , respectively .
Google confirmed that it is currently planning to host its I/O conference on May 12 to 14 in Mountain View , and that it ’ s following World Health Organization and CDC best practices .
Recode is also hosting its annual Code tech conference in May in Los Angeles .
The conference is considerably smaller than others that have been canceled , such as Mobile World Congress , which had more than @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are watching this closely to see what happens between now and the end of May .
The health and safety of our community is of utmost importance to Recode and Vox Media , ” Shannon Thompson , the executive director of conferences for Recode , said .
South By Southwest , another conference that attracts many people in the tech industry and that draws over 30,000 people , said it plans to continue with the event on March 13 to 22 .
A spokesperson sent the following statement to Recode : The SXSW @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Safety is a top priority for SXSW , and we work closely with local , state , and federal agencies year-round to plan for a safe event .
Where travel has been impacted , especially in the case of China , we are seeing a handful of cancellations .
However , we are on par with years past in regard to registrants who are unable to attend .
We are increasing our efforts to prevent the spread of disease per Austin Public Health ’ s recommendations .
We will continue to monitor the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ necessary .
Apple did not respond to a request for comment by the time of publication .

The coronavirus is prompting major tech conferences around the world to cancel their events. So far, several ones have been called off entirely, including, on Friday, South by Southwest, a festival that attracted some 200,000 people last year, as well as Facebook’s F8 and Mobile World Congress. It’s an unprecedented disruption to the usual packed lineup of annual tech events every spring that’s having an economic impact of over $1 billion.
The cancellations of some of the biggest tech events of the year seem to be a sign of what’s to come in other sectors as fears mount that the coronavirus will become a pandemic. The US tech industry shares close ties to China, where the outbreak started, and some in the industry were so concerned about the virus that they took early precautions, like discouraging handshakes and requiring employees who have recently traveled to China to work from home.
Here’s a running list of notable tech conferences, which typically draw between 500 to 100,000 attendees a year, that have been canceled so far due to coronavirus:
South by Southwest in Austin, Texas
Mobile World Congress in Barcelona
Facebook Global Marketing Summit in San Francisco
Facebook F8 in San Jose, California
EmTech, Asia in Singapore
Google News Initiative Global Summit in Sunnyvale, California
Shopify’s developer conference, Unite, in Toronto
Google I/O in Mountain View, California
The tech event cancellations come at the same time public health leaders are considering how other, larger global events outside of tech, like the Tokyo summer Olympics, should respond if the outbreak continues to spread in the months ahead. Japan’s prime minister recently took the drastic step of closing all of the country’s schools for a month to try to contain the virus’s spread.
Covid-19 has taken the lives of 2,867 people as of Friday and infected more than 80,000 people. In the past week, the number of new cases of the virus outside of China, in the US, Italy, Japan, and other countries has been surging. That worries global health experts, who say there’s now less of a chance that it can be contained.
On Thursday, Facebook said that due to concerns about the virus, it’s canceling F8, its biggest event of the year, which last year attracted thousands of attendees from dozens of countries. Instead, it will put on smaller “locally hosted events, videos and live streamed content.”
F8 is one of several big tech conferences, including Mobile World Congress in Barcelona, that has been canceled altogether or negatively impacted due to coronavirus. On Thursday, Microsoft and Epic Games pulled out of one of the video game industry’s major conferences, Game Developers Conference, in San Francisco on March 16 to 17.
Industry leaders are particularly concerned about events in tech’s capital in the San Francisco Bay Area, which has some of the highest travel rates to and from China compared to other regions in the US. Earlier this month, Facebook canceled a 5,000-person marketing event in San Francisco scheduled in March due to similar concerns.
And on Tuesday, the mayor of San Francisco declared the city to be in a state of emergency, although there are still zero confirmed cases of the novel coronavirus in the city. Concerns are increasing after the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) confirmed that a person in Solano County, in Northern California, has been diagnosed with the virus who seemingly had no ties to anyone overseas with the disease, suggesting that the coronavirus may now be spreading person-to-person in the US.
Meanwhile, some other major tech conferences, such as the RSA IT security conference in San Francisco’s Moscone Center, which attracts some 40,000 attendees annually, carried on as planned this week and featured speakers from Facebook, Twitter, and Google. IBM, AT&T Cybersecurity, and Verizon, however, pulled out over coronavirus fears. Organizers reportedly encouraged attendees to knock elbows instead of shake hands and placed ample hand sanitizer stations in the conference halls.
Considering Facebook and other major tech companies have canceled or pulled out of conferences, it raises questions about whether other major conferences will do the same.
Apple is scheduled to have its major annual developer conference, WWDC, in June in San Jose, California. Apple did not reply to Recode’s request for comment about whether it plans to host its conference as scheduled.
Recode will host its annual Code tech conference in May in Los Angeles. The conference is considerably smaller than others that have been canceled, such as Mobile World Congress, which had more than 100,000 attendees last year.
“We are watching this closely to see what happens between now and the end of May. The health and safety of our community is of utmost importance to Recode and Vox Media,” Shannon Thompson, the executive director of conferences for Recode, said.