vox--2020-11-06--How Joe Biden, the ultimate insider, defeated Donald Trump, the ultimate outsider

From one angle , Joe Biden ’ s victory in the 2020 presidential election takes on an aura of near-inevitability .
Biden is well liked , experienced , known .
He served as vice president to Barack Obama , still the most popular figure in American politics .
He ran against Donald Trump , who has never won a majority of the vote in an election or cracked 50 percent approval in polling averages .
The campaign was set against the devastation wrought by the coronavirus , which has killed more than 230,000 Americans and left millions more jobless , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ get here , Biden shattered the conventional wisdom about how modern American politics works , shook off a vast procession of critics and detractors , and assembled and held together an unlikely coalition that stretched from democratic socialists to moderate Republicans .
He ran a decidedly old-fashioned , understated campaign , based on a picture of the electorate many considered outdated , an approach to the media that seemed archaic , and a transactional form of politics that many thought discredited .
In the era of Trump ’ s “ I alone can @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Biden ran on relationships and compromises , a campaign where the candidate — in defiance of political trends and fretful advisers — frequently faded into the background of the coalition he was assembling .
Democrats fretted almost continuously that Biden wasn ’ t doing enough to enthuse voters , to dominate the conversation , to turn out the base .
But in the end , he won in the highest-turnout election since perhaps 1900 , mobilizing more voters than any candidate in history .
It will likely be weeks before we know the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ trends hold , Biden will see a larger popular vote margin than Hillary Clinton in 2016 , Barack Obama in 2012 , or George W. Bush in 2004 .
The Electoral College , and Pennsylvania ’ s achingly slow vote count , turned the election into a nail-biter , but in terms of support , it was never even close .
At the core of Biden ’ s candidacy sits a professionalism we often deride in presidential politics .
Biden is a politician , in the truest , deepest sense of the term @ @ @ @ @ @ @ performance of uncompromising conviction and the aesthetics of anti-Washington outsiders , Biden delights in the pluralistic , messy work of political negotiation .
His politics isn ’ t about what he believes , but about finding the intersection of what he believes , what he believes the country believes , and what the people he needs to win over believe .
That makes Biden a more protean , mutable figure than we ’ ve seen in recent presidential campaigns .
And it speaks to the kind of presidency he ’ s likely to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ has become a bad word , ” says Jared Bernstein , a top economic adviser to Biden .
“ But if you think of a politician as someone who recognizes the policy zeitgeist and has the chops to implement it , that ’ s a good skill set .
And that ’ s Biden.
” As the coronavirus crisis brought a Senate majority into view for Democrats , there was talk of an FDR-size presidency for Biden .
That talk has quieted .
It may be months before we know the final @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Georgia seats look likely to go to a January runoff .
But the probable outcome , as of now , is that Mitch McConnell retains his position as majority leader .
So Biden , the dealmaker who still prides himself on his ability to win Republican votes , will face the ultimate test of his approach .
If you were to go searching for the molten core of Joe Biden ’ s politics , you could do worse than this passage from his book Promise Me , Dad : This is the core @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the core problem of it .
As his many critics have pointed out — myself included — the relational politics that defined the Senate decades ago have fallen before the structural polarization of modern American politics .
Biden often seemed caged by his affection for the Senate of yore , musing proudly of the deals he cut with segregationist senators like Mississippi ’ s James Eastland .
But that Senate , for better and for much , much worse , was a product of the mixed political parties of the past .
It @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s focus on personal relationships bore more fruit in the campaign than I , for one , expected .
The primary was defined by a battle between the Democratic Party ’ s more establishmentarian , moderate wing and its growing leftist faction .
Biden won , in the end , in a dramatic Super Tuesday victory driven by his success in South Carolina and a slew of big-name endorsements and dropouts .
The stage was set for division and mistrust .
Biden smoothly united the party , and it was his attention @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
“ I think the difference now is that , between you and me , I have a better relationship with Joe Biden than I had with Hillary Clinton , and that Biden has been much more receptive to sitting down and talking with me and other progressives than we have seen in the past , ” onetime presidential rival Bernie Sanders told the New Yorker .
As Biden wrote , personal relationships build trust .
And trust builds a foundation upon which negotiation and compromise — the core work of politics , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
And so the Biden-Sanders relationship birthed the Biden-Sanders task forces , which was , to my eyes , the most impressive and interesting decision of Biden ’ s campaign .
Rather than taking his victory over Sanders as an opportunity to define the Democratic Party , Biden took it as his opportunity to unite the Democratic Party .
And that meant reopening his policy agenda , and giving a slew of critics and detractors a voice in his campaign .
Varshini Prakash , the executive director of the environmental group Sunrise Movement @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The Sunrise Movement had given Biden an “ F ” on climate during the campaign , a position his campaign considered grossly unfair given the ambition of their plans .
But when the Sanders team proposed Prakash as part of the task force , Biden ’ s team didn ’ t flinch .
“ They could ’ ve said , “ I don ’ t want Varshini to be part of the task force ; her organization has been mean to me , ’ ” Prakash told me .
“ But they didn @ @ @ @ @ @ @ credit for it.
” This was , for the Biden campaign , a risk : Adding Sunrise to the task force would shine a spotlight on them , give them more clout , and make it far more damaging if the organization once again decided to torch Biden ’ s commitment to climate .
But that ’ s not how it played out .
The Biden camp listened .
Their plan changed , strengthened .
“ I was standing behind Bernie Sanders when he unveiled his climate plan in 2016 , ” Prakash @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Biden ’ s climate plan now is more ambitious than Bernie Sanders ’ s plan in 2016 is mind-blowing.
” The result was that the Sunrise Movement , rather than feeling defeated by the Biden campaign , bought into it .
“ There ’ s a reason we ’ ve made hundreds of thousands of phone calls and sent hundreds of thousands of postcards to defeat Trump , ” Prakash says .
“ It ’ s not about the political champion or the political savior .
It ’ s about the broader mission @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that the same approach will help him peel off Republican legislators .
“ I ’ ll say something outrageous , ” he told me in July .
“ I think I have a pretty good record of pulling together Democrats and Republicans.
” He predicted that some Republicans will feel “ a bit liberated ” if Trump is defeated , and will be ready to work with Democrats on issues like infrastructure and racial inequality .
“ In my career , I have never expected a foreign leader or a member of Congress @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in Courage , ” Biden continued .
“ But I ’ m fairly good at understanding the limitations for a senator or leader and helping them navigate around to what they want to do from what they ’ re having political trouble doing .
I have been successful in helping my Republican friends find rationales to help me get what I ’ m pushing over the top.
” Biden remains proud of his role in the Obama administration as the one Democrat who could still cut a deal with Mitch McConnell — deals @ @ @ @ @ @ @ loathed — and confident that the relationships he ’ s forged with Republicans will bear fruit under his presidency .
Biden is , I suspect , the Democrat who can maximize the amount of legislation that happens so long as McConnell is majority leader .
But that may mean accepting deals many Democrats dislike .
So the question , then , is how Biden balances the left of his party with the Republicans he ’ ll need to work with in the Senate .
Evan Osnos , author of Joe Biden : The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Matters Now , put it best to me .
“ Personal relationships are a tool of political statecraft .
Biden used it first in a regional conflict , in his own party , and next he ’ ll have to figure out if it works in international warfare .
And who knows ?
He ’ s not really operating with a rational actor .
But the campaign has been a bit of a corrective on the power of these fundamentally sentimental assets in politics.
” The country changes , and so does Biden @ @ @ @ @ @ @ point , places him well to the left of Hillary Clinton in 2016 , or Barack Obama in 2012 , or Joe Biden in 2008 .
This is something of a surprise given Biden ’ s history as a relatively centrist Democrat — in his final Senate term , he was the 26th most liberal member of the Senate Democratic caucus , placing him smack in the middle — and , in some quarters , it ’ s occasioned mistrust .
Biden has such a long record in politics that he ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , and hypocrisy , or insincerity , is always an easy conclusion .
So , too , is the fear that Biden is a secret conservative .
Who ’ s the real Biden — the one who co-sponsored a balanced-budget amendment in 1995 , or the one who is explicitly tying his administration to FDR ’ s legacy in 2020 ?
The politician who voted against the first Iraq War , or for the second ?
But another read of Biden ’ s career is that as the country changes , he changes @ @ @ @ @ @ @ That , to him , is the job of a politician — to absorb the disagreements and needs of a fractured , diverse country and use the channels and institutions of politics to steadily perfect the union .
Biden is a politician , in the truest , deepest sense of the term Osnos ’ s book includes a quote from an unnamed White House official reflecting on Biden ’ s early embrace of marriage equality .
“ He is very much a weathervane for what the center of the left is .
He @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is where the society is moving .
This is where the Democratic Party is moving , so I ’ m going to move.
’ ” Here is where I make an argument I believe but can not prove .
It ’ s not just that the world changed , it ’ s also that Joe Biden changed .
I ’ ve covered Biden for two decades .
When he ran in 2008 , no one thought to define his campaign by pointing to his empathy or his gentleness .
Biden was a notably @ @ @ @ @ @ @ making deals but always spoiling for a fight , desperate to be seen as the smartest in the room .
He was quick with the cutting dismissal and often contemptuous of those to his left , or those he saw as less schooled in the ways of politics .
As he ’ s gotten older — and particularly after serving as Barack Obama ’ s vice president , and then losing his son Beau — that arrogance burned away , leaving a more open-minded , and open-hearted , man .
I don ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ have won the primary and welcomed in his critics .
I think the Biden of the past had more to prove than the Biden of the present , and the softer , less ego-driven approach to politics he practices now has served him well .
Either way , the country is changing now , and that permitted Biden to run an unusual strategy in 2020 , one that may have profound consequences for his presidency .
Sanders and Elizabeth Warren ran as the proud standard-bearers of the left .
That let Biden run @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a strong public health insurance option rather than Medicare-for-all , sharp limits on fracking rather than an outright ban , policies that would cut adult poverty by 50 percent and child poverty by 75 percent rather than a universal basic income — even as he designed an agenda that , if passed , would be the most profound overhaul of domestic policy since Lyndon Johnson , at least .
The Trump campaign was flummoxed by this .
They tried relentlessly , and at times hilariously , to paint Biden as a radical socialist @ @ @ @ @ @ @ left .
There is a kernel of truth in their portrayal : Biden is offering the leftmost agenda of any presidential nominee in modern history , and his agenda has been influenced by Sanders , Warren , Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez , and others on the party ’ s left .
But Biden ’ s long career in politics , and the candidates he ran against , turns the efforts to hype his communist sympathies into unintentional camp .
“ The magic of Joe Biden is that everything he does becomes the new reasonable @ @ @ @ @ @ @ candidate roundtable at the 2020 Democratic National Convention .
“ If he comes with an ambitious template to address climate change , all of a sudden , everyone is going to follow his lead.
” Biden is likely to be more constrained on domestic policy , where he will have to negotiate with Senate Republicans , than on foreign policy , where the president has more power .
But there , too , the changes in Biden ’ s thinking have been notable .
Biden pushed hard for humanitarian interventions in the 1990s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s request for authority to go to war in Iraq .
But the failure of that war chastened him , and he proved one of the Obama administration ’ s consistently cautious voices on military intervention , arguing against an Afghanistan surge and the ( disastrous ) Libya intervention , and even pushing for an airstrike on Osama bin Laden ’ s compound , rather than the riskier plan of sending troops in on the ground .
“ You mentioned Joe having voted for the war in Iraq , ” Obama said in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ He learned a lesson from that .
And as you know , he was probably the person who was most restrained in terms of use of military force among my senior advisers during the course of my presidency.
” The tendency in every election is to refight the last war and counter the previous election ’ s winning strategy .
In 2016 , Trump won a shocking upset in part by dominating media attention .
He was inescapable , inexhaustible .
And so a conventional wisdom quickly congealed : To beat Trump , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ politics , you had to disrupt his ability to set the agenda , shut down his talent for controlling the conversation .
You needed to fight him on Twitter , on Reddit , on Facebook , on YouTube .
But Biden simply refused .
“ Biden Is Losing the Internet .
Does That Matter ?
” fretted an April New York Times headline .
“ Mr .
Biden has just 32,000 subscribers on the influential video platform , a pittance compared with some of his rivals in the Democratic primary race and roughly @ @ @ @ @ @ @ it warned .
Biden ran an oddly modest campaign , and it got even quieter after the coronavirus hit and in-person events ceased .
“ Does Biden Need a Higher Gear ?
Some Democrats Think So , ” warned a Times article in September , in which a variety of Democrats worried over the way “ Biden ’ s restraint has spilled over into his campaign operation.
” Trump was holding daily press conferences , appearing at rallies , owning the nation ’ s attention .
Where was Biden ?
But Biden was @ @ @ @ @ @ @ more he talks , the better off I am , ” the candidate said of Trump in May .
Biden ’ s bet , in the primary as well as the general , was that Americans were tired of the loudest voices in the room , tired of the grievances and disputes that dominated political media .
The same strategy that led Trump to victory in 2016 would drive him to defeat in 2020 , so long as Biden didn ’ t get in his way .
“ There were all these people @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Biden has to be out there every day , that he ’ s invisible , that he needs a daily briefing , ” a senior Biden adviser told me in June .
“ But people are not looking for a Trump 2.0 .
They don ’ t want a Democratic Trump .
They want a president .
The best way to run against Trump is to go be the president they don ’ t have in this country right now.
” As my colleague Jane Coaston has written , Trump ran the most @ @ @ @ @ @ @ emphasizing issues that were inscrutable even to professional political reporters .
To follow along with ease , you had to be deep into the Fox News cinematic universe , easily conversant in right-wing memes and conspiracies .
Trump ’ s campaign was angry , negative , and alarmist , but it was also just confusing , a reflection of the president ’ s idiosyncratic interests and obsessions .
Biden ’ s strategy was the opposite .
At times , his campaign felt transported from another era , with kitschy , post-partisan ads narrated @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Trump officials mocked as lifted from an episode of Mister Rogers ’ Neighborhood .
But after four years of Trump , President Mr. Rogers sounded pretty good to plenty of voters .
“ Biden ran a campaign that is not a Twitter campaign , ” says Yanna Krupnikov , a political scientist at Stony Brook University .
“ He has a T-shirt in his store that says ‘ Tweet less , listen more.
’ That ’ s aimed at Trump , but it ’ s indicative of the overall campaign .
This was @ @ @ @ @ @ @ weren ’ t political junkies.
” That was also reflected in Biden ’ s media strategy , which didn ’ t reflect the heat of anti-Trump discourse in the Democratic Party .
Despite running against a deeply unpopular president , Biden ran an unusually positive ad campaign in a bid to reach voters who didn ’ t loathe Trump so much as they just wanted a candidate , and a presidency , that felt different from the current one .
Trump ’ s central strategy in the campaign was playing up polarization , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the country into two halves in the hopes that his half would be bigger , or at least more efficiently distributed across the Electoral College .
Biden ’ s strategy was the opposite : He ran a strategy built on defusing negative partisanship , a campaign designed to deprive Trump of a boogeyman to run against even if that meant avoiding some of the messages , policies , and controversies that would have motivated Biden ’ s own base .
That ’ s a strategy that likely would have failed against a more @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , but Biden was running against Trump , not that hypothetical alternative .
As a result , Biden could effectively outsource Democratic base mobilization to Trump while focusing his efforts on the kinds of voters who wanted a calmer , kinder alternative .
If , in 2016 , Trump proved the potency of running an offensive campaign , recognizing that outrage generated its own energy , Biden ’ s 2020 strategy proved that a strategically inoffensive campaign could be a potent response .
It will require full results and more granular data to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ far , it looks like Biden ran ahead of both his party ’ s Senate and House candidates , suggesting there was something to the contrast he chose to draw with Trump .
For Biden now , the question is what all this looks like without Trump as foil .
Can the Democratic base hold together when they ’ re riven by disagreements over legislation rather than united by opposition to the president ?
Can Biden , as president , ignore Twitter controversies and try to hold marginal voters when the focus is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ there any possibility of a successful governing agenda so long as Republicans hold the Senate and the Supreme Court ?
Biden ’ s strategy worked in the context of Trump ’ s presidency .
And now we ’ ll see how it holds up in Biden ’ s presidency .

From one angle, Joe Biden’s victory in the 2020 presidential election takes on an aura of near-inevitability. Biden is well liked, experienced, known. He served as vice president to Barack Obama, still the most popular figure in American politics. He ran against Donald Trump, who has never won a majority of the vote in an election or cracked 50 percent approval in polling averages. The campaign was set against the devastation wrought by the coronavirus, which has killed more than 230,000 Americans and left millions more jobless, gasping, and afraid.
Yet to get here, Biden shattered the conventional wisdom about how modern American politics works, shook off a vast procession of critics and detractors, and assembled and held together an unlikely coalition that stretched from democratic socialists to moderate Republicans. He ran a decidedly old-fashioned, understated campaign, based on a picture of the electorate many considered outdated, an approach to the media that seemed archaic, and a transactional form of politics that many thought discredited.
In the era of Trump’s “I alone can fix it” approach to politics, Biden ran on relationships and compromises, a campaign where the candidate — in defiance of political trends and fretful advisers — frequently faded into the background of the coalition he was assembling. Democrats fretted almost continuously that Biden wasn’t doing enough to enthuse voters, to dominate the conversation, to turn out the base. But in the end, he won in the highest-turnout election since perhaps 1900, mobilizing more voters than any candidate in history.
It will likely be weeks before we know the final tally, but if the current trends hold, Biden will see a larger popular vote margin than Hillary Clinton in 2016, Barack Obama in 2012, or George W. Bush in 2004. The Electoral College, and Pennsylvania’s achingly slow vote count, turned the election into a nail-biter, but in terms of support, it was never even close.
At the core of Biden’s candidacy sits a professionalism we often deride in presidential politics. Biden is a politician, in the truest, deepest sense of the term. In a culture that rewards the performance of uncompromising conviction and the aesthetics of anti-Washington outsiders, Biden delights in the pluralistic, messy work of political negotiation.
His politics isn’t about what he believes, but about finding the intersection of what he believes, what he believes the country believes, and what the people he needs to win over believe. That makes Biden a more protean, mutable figure than we’ve seen in recent presidential campaigns. And it speaks to the kind of presidency he’s likely to have.
“The word ‘politician’ has become a bad word,” says Jared Bernstein, a top economic adviser to Biden. “But if you think of a politician as someone who recognizes the policy zeitgeist and has the chops to implement it, that’s a good skill set. And that’s Biden.”
As the coronavirus crisis brought a Senate majority into view for Democrats, there was talk of an FDR-size presidency for Biden. That talk has quieted. It may be months before we know the final composition of the Senate, as both Georgia seats look likely to go to a January runoff. But the probable outcome, as of now, is that Mitch McConnell retains his position as majority leader. So Biden, the dealmaker who still prides himself on his ability to win Republican votes, will face the ultimate test of his approach.
The personal is political
If you were to go searching for the molten core of Joe Biden’s politics, you could do worse than this passage from his book Promise Me, Dad:
My old friend Tip O’Neill, the twentieth century’s most colorful and successful Speaker of the House, famously said, “All politics is local.” I’ve been around long enough to presume to improve on that statement. I believe all politics is personal, because at bottom, politics depends on trust, and unless you can establish a personal relationship, it’s awfully hard to build trust.
This is the core of Bidenism. It’s also the core problem of it. As his many critics have pointed out — myself included — the relational politics that defined the Senate decades ago have fallen before the structural polarization of modern American politics. Biden often seemed caged by his affection for the Senate of yore, musing proudly of the deals he cut with segregationist senators like Mississippi’s James Eastland. But that Senate, for better and for much, much worse, was a product of the mixed political parties of the past. It’s gone now.
Yet Biden’s focus on personal relationships bore more fruit in the campaign than I, for one, expected. The primary was defined by a battle between the Democratic Party’s more establishmentarian, moderate wing and its growing leftist faction. Biden won, in the end, in a dramatic Super Tuesday victory driven by his success in South Carolina and a slew of big-name endorsements and dropouts. The stage was set for division and mistrust.
Biden smoothly united the party, and it was his attention to personal relationships that set the foundation. “I think the difference now is that, between you and me, I have a better relationship with Joe Biden than I had with Hillary Clinton, and that Biden has been much more receptive to sitting down and talking with me and other progressives than we have seen in the past,” onetime presidential rival Sen. Bernie Sanders told the New Yorker.
As Biden wrote, personal relationships build trust. And trust builds a foundation upon which negotiation and compromise — the core work of politics, as Biden sees it — is possible. And so the Biden-Sanders relationship birthed the Biden-Sanders task forces, which was, to my eyes, the most impressive and interesting decision of Biden’s campaign.
Rather than taking his victory over Sanders as an opportunity to define the Democratic Party, Biden took it as his opportunity to unite the Democratic Party. And that meant reopening his policy agenda, and giving a slew of critics and detractors a voice in his campaign.
Varshini Prakash, the executive director of the environmental group Sunrise Movement, was one of those detractors. The Sunrise Movement had given Biden an “F” on climate during the campaign, a position his campaign considered grossly unfair given the ambition of their plans. But when the Sanders team proposed Prakash as part of the task force, Biden’s team didn’t flinch.
“They could’ve said, ‘I don’t want Varshini to be part of the task force; her organization has been mean to me,’” Prakash told me. “But they didn’t, and I give them credit for it.”
This was, for the Biden campaign, a risk: Adding Sunrise to the task force would shine a spotlight on them, give them more clout, and make it far more damaging if the organization once again decided to torch Biden’s commitment to climate. But that’s not how it played out. The Biden camp listened. Their plan changed, strengthened.
“I was standing behind Bernie Sanders when he unveiled his climate plan in 2016,” Prakash says. “The fact that Joe Biden’s climate plan now is more ambitious than Bernie Sanders’s plan in 2016 is mind-blowing.”
The result was that the Sunrise Movement, rather than feeling defeated by the Biden campaign, bought into it. “There’s a reason we’ve made hundreds of thousands of phone calls and sent hundreds of thousands of postcards to defeat Trump,” Prakash says. “It’s not about the political champion or the political savior. It’s about the broader mission at hand.”
Biden has long maintained that the same approach will help him peel off Republican legislators. “I’ll say something outrageous,” he told me in July. “I think I have a pretty good record of pulling together Democrats and Republicans.” He predicted that some Republicans will feel “a bit liberated” if Trump is defeated, and will be ready to work with Democrats on issues like infrastructure and racial inequality.
“In my career, I have never expected a foreign leader or a member of Congress to appear in the second-edition Profiles in Courage,” Biden continued. “But I’m fairly good at understanding the limitations for a senator or leader and helping them navigate around to what they want to do from what they’re having political trouble doing. I have been successful in helping my Republican friends find rationales to help me get what I’m pushing over the top.”
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Biden remains proud of his role in the Obama administration as the one Democrat who could still cut a deal with Mitch McConnell — deals that, in some cases, liberals loathed — and confident that the relationships he’s forged with Republicans will bear fruit under his presidency. Biden is, I suspect, the Democrat who can maximize the amount of legislation that happens so long as McConnell is majority leader. But that may mean accepting deals many Democrats dislike. So the question, then, is how Biden balances the left of his party with the Republicans he’ll need to work with in the Senate.
Evan Osnos, author of Joe Biden: The Life, The Run, and What Matters Now, put it best to me. “Personal relationships are a tool of political statecraft. Biden used it first in a regional conflict, in his own party, and next he’ll have to figure out if it works in international warfare. And who knows? He’s not really operating with a rational actor. But the campaign has been a bit of a corrective on the power of these fundamentally sentimental assets in politics.”
The country changes, and so does Biden
Biden’s agenda, at this point, places him well to the left of Hillary Clinton in 2016, or Barack Obama in 2012, or Joe Biden in 2008. This is something of a surprise given Biden’s history as a relatively centrist Democrat — in his final Senate term, he was the 26th most liberal member of the Senate Democratic caucus, placing him smack in the middle — and, in some quarters, it’s occasioned mistrust. Biden has such a long record in politics that he’s been on multiple sides of myriad issues, and hypocrisy, or insincerity, is always an easy conclusion.
So, too, is the fear that Biden is a secret conservative. Who’s the real Biden — the one who cosponsored a balanced-budget amendment in 1995, or the one who is explicitly tying his administration to FDR’s legacy in 2020? The politician who voted against the first Iraq War, or for the second?
But another read of Biden’s career is that as the country changes, he changes, and he does so proudly. That, to him, is the job of a politician — to absorb the disagreements and needs of a fractured, diverse country and use the channels and institutions of politics to steadily perfect the union.
Biden is a politician, in the truest, deepest sense of the term
Osnos’s book includes a quote from an unnamed White House official reflecting on Biden’s early embrace of marriage equality. “He is very much a weathervane for what the center of the left is. He can see, ‘Okay, this is where the society is moving. This is where the Democratic Party is moving, so I’m going to move.’ ”
Here is where I make an argument I believe but cannot prove. It’s not just that the world changed; it’s also that Joe Biden changed. I’ve covered Biden for two decades. When he ran in 2008, no one thought to define his campaign by pointing to his empathy or his gentleness. Biden was a notably arrogant figure in Washington, good at making deals but always spoiling for a fight, desperate to be seen as the smartest in the room. He was quick with a cutting dismissal and often contemptuous of those to his left, or those he saw as less schooled in the ways of politics.
As he’s gotten older — and particularly after serving as Barack Obama’s vice president, and then losing his son Beau — that arrogance burned away, leaving a more open-minded, and open-hearted, man. I don’t think the Biden of 2008 would have won the primary and welcomed in his critics. I think the Biden of the past had more to prove than the Biden of the present, and the softer, less ego-driven approach to politics he practices now has served him well.
Either way, the country is changing now, and that permitted Biden to run an unusual strategy in 2020, one that may have profound consequences for his presidency. Sanders and Elizabeth Warren ran as the proud standard-bearers of the left. That let Biden run aesthetically as a moderate — he wants a strong public health insurance option rather than Medicare-for-all; sharp limits on fracking rather than an outright ban; policies that would cut adult poverty by 50 percent and child poverty by 75 percent rather than a universal basic income — even as he designed an agenda that, if passed, would be the most profound overhaul of domestic policy since Lyndon Johnson, at least.
The Trump campaign was flummoxed by this. They tried relentlessly, and at times hilariously, to paint Biden as a radical socialist who’s a tool of the left. There is a kernel of truth in their portrayal: Biden is offering the leftmost agenda of any presidential nominee in modern history, and his agenda has been influenced by Sanders, Warren, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, and others on the party’s left. But Biden’s long career in politics, and the candidates he ran against, turns the efforts to hype his supposed communist sympathies into unintentional camp.
This would be Joe Biden's America pic.twitter.com/qCILb8SMNo — Trump War Room - Text TRUMP to 88022 (@TrumpWarRoom) November 2, 2020
“The magic of Joe Biden is that everything he does becomes the new reasonable,” Andrew Yang said during the candidate roundtable at the 2020 Democratic National Convention. “If he comes with an ambitious template to address climate change, all of a sudden, everyone is going to follow his lead.”
Biden is likely to be more constrained on domestic policy, where he will have to negotiate with Senate Republicans, than on foreign policy, where the president has more power. But there, too, the changes in Biden’s thinking have been notable. Biden pushed hard for humanitarian interventions in the 1990s, and supported George W. Bush’s request for authority to go to war in Iraq. But the failure of that war chastened him, and he proved one of the Obama administration’s consistently cautious voices on military intervention, arguing against an Afghanistan surge and the (disastrous) Libya intervention, and even pushing for an airstrike on Osama bin Laden’s compound, rather than the riskier plan of sending troops in on the ground.
“You mentioned Joe having voted for the war in Iraq,” Obama said in a Pod Save America interview. “He learned a lesson from that. And as you know, he was probably the person who was most restrained in terms of use of military force among my senior advisers during the course of my presidency.”
A quiet candidate in a loud time
The tendency in every election is to refight the last war and counter the previous election’s winning strategy. In 2016, Trump won a shocking upset in part by dominating media attention. He was inescapable, inexhaustible. And so a conventional wisdom quickly congealed: To beat Trump, in the modern era of social media-driven politics, you had to disrupt his ability to set the agenda, shut down his talent for controlling the conversation. You needed to fight him on Twitter, on Reddit, on Facebook, on YouTube.
But Biden simply refused. “Biden Is Losing the Internet. Does That Matter?” fretted an April New York Times headline. “Mr. Biden has just 32,000 subscribers on [YouTube], a pittance compared with some of his rivals in the Democratic primary race and roughly 300,000 fewer than President Trump,” it warned.
Biden ran an oddly modest campaign, and it got even quieter after the coronavirus hit and in-person events ceased. “Does Biden Need a Higher Gear? Some Democrats Think So,” warned a Times article in September, in which a variety of Democrats worried over the way “Biden’s restraint has spilled over into his campaign operation.” Trump was holding daily press conferences, appearing at rallies, owning the nation’s attention. Where was Biden?
But Biden was clear about his strategy. “The more he talks, the better off I am,” the candidate said of Trump in May. Biden’s bet, in the primary as well as the general, was that Americans were tired of the loudest voices in the room, tired of the grievances and disputes that dominated political media. The same strategy that led Trump to victory in 2016 would drive him to defeat in 2020, so long as Biden didn’t get in his way.
“There were all these people who in March or April were saying Biden has to be out there every day, that he’s invisible, that he needs a daily briefing,” a senior Biden adviser told me in June. “But people are not looking for a Trump 2.0. They don’t want a Democratic Trump. They want a president. The best way to run against Trump is to go be the president they don’t have in this country right now.”
As my colleague Jane Coaston has written, Trump ran the most Extremely Online campaign in history, often emphasizing issues that were inscrutable even to professional political reporters. To follow along with ease, you had to be deep into the Fox News cinematic universe, easily conversant in right-wing memes and conspiracies. Trump’s campaign was angry, negative, and alarmist, but it was also just confusing, a reflection of the president’s idiosyncratic interests and obsessions.
Biden’s strategy was the opposite. At times, his campaign felt transported from another era, with kitschy, post-partisan ads narrated by Sam Elliott and a vibe that Trump officials mocked as lifted from an episode of Mister Rogers’ Neighborhood. But after four years of Trump, President Mr. Rogers sounded pretty good to plenty of voters.
“Biden ran a campaign that is not a Twitter campaign,” says Yanna Krupnikov, a political scientist at Stony Brook University. “He has a T-shirt in his store that says ‘Tweet less, listen more.’ That’s aimed at Trump, but it’s indicative of the overall campaign. This was a campaign trying to reach people who weren’t political junkies.”
That was also reflected in Biden’s media strategy, which didn’t reflect the heat of anti-Trump discourse in the Democratic Party. Despite running against a deeply unpopular president, Biden ran an unusually positive ad campaign in a bid to reach voters who didn’t loathe Trump so much as they just wanted a candidate, and a presidency, that felt different from the current one.
Pro-Trump ads are increasingly negative since mid-Sep. In the past week, over 60% of Trump ads were pure attacks, and fewer than 10% were purely positive.
Biden is airing mostly positive or contrast ads, with about 10% being pure attacks.https://t.co/kSt9kEMQxv pic.twitter.com/IZlAPfeaWg — WesleyanMediaProject (@wesmediaproject) October 29, 2020
Trump’s central strategy in the campaign was playing up polarization, emphasizing divisive issues, trying to split the country into two halves in the hopes that his half would be bigger, or at least more efficiently distributed across the Electoral College.
Biden’s strategy was the opposite: He ran a strategy built on defusing negative partisanship, a campaign designed to deprive Trump of a boogeyman to run against even if that meant avoiding some of the messages, policies, and controversies that would have motivated Biden’s own base. That’s a strategy that likely would have failed against a more graceful, less polarizing candidate than Trump, but Biden was running against Trump, not that hypothetical alternative. As a result, Biden could effectively outsource Democratic base mobilization to Trump while focusing his efforts on the kinds of voters who wanted a calmer, kinder alternative.
If, in 2016, Trump proved the potency of running an offensive campaign, recognizing that outrage generated its own energy, Biden’s 2020 strategy proved that a strategically inoffensive campaign could be a potent response. It will require full results and more granular data to truly judge this strategy, but so far, it looks like Biden ran ahead of both his party’s Senate and House candidates, suggesting there was something to the contrast he chose to draw with Trump.
For Biden now, the question is what all this looks like without Trump as a foil. Can the Democratic base hold together when they’re riven by disagreements over legislation rather than united by opposition to the president? Can Biden, as president, ignore Twitter controversies and try to hold marginal voters when the focus is on him and his actions? Is there any possibility of a successful governing agenda so long as Republicans hold the Senate and the Supreme Court?
Biden’s strategy worked in the context of Trump’s presidency. And now we’ll see how it holds up in Biden’s presidency.


vox--2020-11-06--Trump’s Covid-19 disaster will likely get worse before Biden takes office

The week before Election Day , Brown University School of Public Health dean Ashish Jha told me something that still haunts me : “ In two weeks , [ Biden and his team ] are going to have no more power to turn the pandemic around than they do today.
” It ’ s true .
President-Elect Joe Biden has defeated President Donald Trump , but his inauguration isn ’ t until January 20 , 2021 .
Until then , there are no signs that Trump will give up any levers of power early — if anything , the opposite @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the election results .
So Trump ’ s failed response to Covid-19 will continue , unchecked , over the next couple of months .
The US ’ s coronavirus epidemic is already among the worst in the world , with a death toll from Covid-19 that now stands above 230,000 .
It ’ s fall , and winter is coming , both bringing several issues that could make America ’ s outbreak even worse : Schools will continue to reopen , the cold will push people into poorly ventilated indoor spaces in which @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the holidays will bring families together in potential superspreading events , and a possible flu season could further strain health care systems .
Trump could , of course , prepare the country for all of this .
But he ’ s spent the past several months actively downplaying the coronavirus — deliberately so , as he told journalist Bob Woodward .
He rejected or undermined proven policies , from social distancing to masking to testing and tracing .
And now Trump no longer has to worry about the politics around his response .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ spend the next few months carrying out the response he truly believes in without any risk that it could cost him the election .
( Though with Trump , it ’ s also true politics never seemed to restrain him much to begin with . )
To put it another way , Trump ’ s loss may unchain Scott Atlas , the controversial adviser Trump has leaned on to justify a hands-off approach to the coronavirus .
Atlas has spoken favorably of a “ herd immunity ” strategy — which experts widely reject @ @ @ @ @ @ @ catastrophic death toll , but which Trump and Atlas see favorably as a way to avoid measures that can hinder the economy in the short term .
If states follow that lead , America ’ s already soaring Covid-19 cases and deaths will get even worse .
All of this will boost the need for comprehensive action starting from Biden ’ s first day in the Oval Office .
That begins with implementing the policies proven to combat Covid-19 , including measures that encourage and enable social distancing to slow overall spread , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ themselves and others , and widely deploy testing and tracing to detect new outbreaks and contain them .
It also requires empowering science — something that Trump has worked against as he ’ s contradicted expert advice , including from federal public health agencies .
And Biden has to prepare the country for a vaccine , which requires not just finding a safe , effective vaccine but also mounting a vast distribution effort to get doses to hundreds of millions of Americans .
Biden , for his part , has already promised to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ some of it will require Congress , which could pass economic stimulus to ease the pain of and therefore enable further social distancing , incentivize states to mandate masks , and direct more funding to vaccine efforts .
With Democrats ’ chances of winning the Senate now looking worse , it ’ s unclear how much of these measures Congress — and therefore Biden — will get done .
If done correctly , a rigorous federal response could help turn America ’ s Covid-19 epidemic around .
Quick , decisive action can ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and the US has gone through so far — those 230,000-plus deaths are with us forever — but it can help .
For now , though , Jha ’ s point rings true : America will have to wait until Biden actually has power .
And that leaves plenty of time for things to keep getting worse .
America ’ s Covid-19 epidemic is out of control The US is already in a bad spot with Covid-19 .
Its death rate so far is within the top four for developed nations and more @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the median developed country .
If the US had the same death rate as Canada , over 140,000 more Americans would likely be alive today .
And just like they are in much of Europe , Covid-19 cases are now rapidly increasing in the US — recently hitting more than 100,000 confirmed cases in one day for the first time .
The rise in the US and Europe doesn ’ t mean this was all inevitable .
As Jha told me , “ The truth is there ’ s lots of countries that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that have performed much better than the US : Australia , Canada , Germany , Japan , New Zealand , South Korea , and Vietnam .
“ What this outbreak gives you is the same problem for every country around the world , ” Clare Wenham , a global health policy expert at the London School of Economics and Political Science , said .
“ So you can really see the impact of different policies that were launched.
” The US ’ s performance “ is a testament to failures of the Trump @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to dealing with Covid-19 : social distancing , aggressive testing and tracing , and widespread masking .
But Trump has rejected all these approaches — demanding that states open up early and quickly , punting testing and tracing programs down to local and state governments , as well as mocking and questioning masks .
Meanwhile , the public , along with local and state leaders , has collectively become more complacent and fatigued with the pandemic .
That ’ s led to more and more people going out , with each interaction carrying @ @ @ @ @ @ @ This has continued despite relatively widespread inaction and apathy already leading to outbreak after outbreak in the US .
As Jha has told me , “ I , at this point , feel like I clearly no longer understand why our country can ’ t learn its lessons and why we keep repeating the same mistakes.
” As temperatures have gotten colder , particularly in northern parts of the US , people have flocked more to risky indoor spaces like bars and restaurants .
In these places , people are close together for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ wear masks as they eat or drink ; the air can ’ t dilute the virus like it can outdoors ; and alcohol could lead people to drop their guards further .
Each of these factors helps the virus spread further .
Schools have also reopened since the late summer — with colleges and universities in particular seeing big outbreaks , not only as students go back to class but also as they hit bars and restaurants , party in dorms , and hang out with their peers , friends , fraternities , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ all of this could get even worse .
More schools will reopen .
It ’ ll get colder in more parts of the US .
Thanksgiving , Christmas , and New Year ’ s will bring friends and families together , including from hot spots at colleges and universities .
Hospitals and other parts of the health care system may have trouble treating a bigger surge of Covid-19 patients if a flu season appears , too , potentially leading to worse outcomes across the board .
What ’ s particularly problematic for the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ country is starting from such a high baseline of cases .
As RTI International epidemiologist Pia MacDonald has repeatedly emphasized to me , “ We never got to low enough levels [ of Covid-19 ] to start with in most places.
” The threat of exponential growth from such a point could lead to a level of spread that no country has ever seen before — not even in the spring , when the coronavirus first hit the US and Europe .
“ The next number in the fall is likely going to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy , previously told me .
“ Likely well beyond 65,000 , 70,000 , ” the summer ’ s previous peak .
“ I think this fall is going to be the biggest spike of all.
” Trump ’ s response to the coronavirus could get even worse Trump could , in theory , at any moment shift course and try to take the threat of Covid-19 more seriously .
Eight months into the pandemic , though , that seems very unlikely .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ , Trump continued to downplay the threat of the virus : As he left the hospital , he tweeted , “ Don ’ t be afraid of Covid .
Don ’ t let it dominate your life.
” He continued to push a false sense of normalcy in the weeks leading up to the election .
One possibility that experts worry about : As bad as Trump has been , maybe he was partially restrained by the election .
If he really believes what he was preaching , he could now do even @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , testing , and tracing .
“ I think this fall is going to be the biggest spike of all.
” “ What is the Trump team , once they have lost , going to do over the next two , three months ?
Because they ’ re going to have the reins of federal power , ” Jha said .
“ It ’ s going to be a very tough two , three months.
” Citing his conversations with White House staff , he added , “ There are a lot of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ who are already very worried about this.
” Consider what Trump and his people were already doing behind the scenes .
One of Atlas ’ s first actions when he joined Trump ’ s team was , reportedly , to push for less testing , out of fear that exposing more asymptomatic cases could lead more people to quarantine and more businesses to close down .
With Atlas ’ s support , the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention also briefly recommended less testing , especially for asymptomatic people .
Trump , who @ @ @ @ @ @ @ part out loud , has repeatedly suggested this is what he always wanted .
He said he told his people to “ slow the testing down please , ” since more tests revealed more cases and , in his view , could make the US look bad .
Testing is perhaps the least controversial part of this pandemic , with both Democrats and Republicans supporting it at varying levels across the country .
After all , who could object to more data showing the disease ’ s spread ?
That Trump managed to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ his never-ending drive to “ always play [ the coronavirus ] down , ” as he told journalist Bob Woodward .
But unchaining Trump and Atlas from politics could go much further than testing .
Both have at different points spoken favorably of a “ herd immunity ” strategy — one that would aim to get younger , healthier people infected and , hopefully , immune to Covid-19 .
The idea is this would build up enough immunity that the vast majority of the country could go back to life as normal .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ pointing that it could lead to hundreds of thousands or even millions of Covid-19 deaths as massive segments of the population are infected with the virus and get seriously sick .
Sweden , which appeared to try a “ herd immunity ” strategy while denying it was doing so , suffered one of the highest Covid-19 death rates in the world — even as its neighbors were spared significant outbreaks — before its leaders admitted to a mistake .
If the US followed such an approach , and the Trump administration worked even @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , testing , and tracing , it could make the country ’ s Covid-19 disaster even worse .
And even if Trump ’ s approach doesn ’ t get worse , the status quo clearly hasn ’ t been working .
One potential for optimism : Maybe Trump will shift course now that the election is behind him .
Maybe he only downplayed the virus as part of his reelection bid , out of a desire to make it seem like things were fine and normal , hoping that would boost voters ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ lack of political incentives could make Trump act more wisely .
But that assumes a level of competence and responsibility that Trump , who got his start in politics by falsely suggesting then-President Barack Obama wasn ’ t born in the US , has yet to display .
And if Trump genuinely believes what he ’ s been saying for months , things could get much worse .
Biden has to be ready to strike on day one It will be too late for Biden to do anything about a fall and winter @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a Biden administration could take significant steps to put the country on a better path once he takes office .
And Biden , as the president-elect , can start putting together a plan and team to accomplish this on day one .
When I previously asked experts about what Biden should do , they pointed to several ideas : 1 ) Implement policies that are proven to work : A Biden administration could encourage more social distancing , simultaneously offering financial support to affected people and businesses so they don ’ t suffer @ @ @ @ @ @ @ another incentive to try to go back to normal .
It could push , with the bully pulpit and potential funds , states to mandate masks and really enforce those mandates .
It could build up a national testing-and-tracing system , fixing supply bottlenecks for widespread tests and putting money into hiring contact tracers .
All of these efforts could help suppress the virus .
2 ) Rebuild trust in scientists : Under Trump , trust in scientific institutions has dwindled .
Federal agencies like the Food and Drug Administration and the CDC @ @ @ @ @ @ @ their fields , but now Americans and experts are increasingly questioning just how effective these once-respected institutions are , in large part because they ’ ve been politically polarized under Trump .
By taking steps to ensure Americans that the experts are leading the response and the best science is the guide , Biden could help rebuild some faith in these institutions .
3 ) Prepare the country for a vaccine : If all goes well , a vaccine will be proven to be safe and effective in clinical trials before Biden takes @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the beginning .
After that , the vaccine will have to be distributed to every corner of the country so hundreds of millions of Americans can actually get it .
It will be a massive operation — one that experts often compare to nationwide wartime efforts — and the federal government will need to lead that operation to ensure it all goes well .
Crucially , much of this , particularly elements that require more money , will require support from Congress .
How quickly Congress acts could dictate how quickly Biden does @ @ @ @ @ @ @ dying of Covid-19 a day now and potentially more dying once we ’ re in the middle of winter , every single day , week , and month will matter .
But if done correctly , this could get the US closer to normal more quickly .
“ If you do things the right way , you can do them , ” Cedric Dark , an emergency medicine physician at the Baylor College of Medicine , previously told me .
“ If you do them the wrong way , then you ’ re @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , however , the US will need to get through the fall and much of winter under the same leadership that ’ s made America ’ s Covid-19 outbreak one of the worst in the world .

The week before Election Day, Brown University School of Public Health dean Ashish Jha told me something that still haunts me: “In two weeks, [Biden and his team] are going to have no more power to turn the pandemic around than they do today.”
It’s true. President-elect Joe Biden has defeated President Donald Trump, but his inauguration isn’t until January 20, 2021. Until then, there are no signs that Trump will give up any levers of power early — if anything, the opposite is true, as Trump now contests the election results. So Trump’s failed response to Covid-19 will continue, unchecked, over the next couple of months.
The US’s coronavirus epidemic is already among the worst in the world, with a death toll from Covid-19 that now stands above 230,000. It’s fall, and winter is coming, both bringing several issues that could make America’s outbreak even worse: Schools will continue to reopen, the cold will push people into poorly ventilated indoor spaces in which the virus can spread more easily, the holidays will bring families together in potential superspreading events, and a possible flu season could further strain health care systems.
Trump could, of course, prepare the country for all of this. But he’s spent the past several months actively downplaying the coronavirus — deliberately so, as he told journalist Bob Woodward. He rejected or undermined proven policies, from social distancing to masking to testing and tracing.
And now Trump no longer has to worry about the politics around his response. He’ll instead be able to spend the next few months carrying out the response he truly believes in without any risk that it could cost him the election. (Though with Trump, it’s also true politics never seemed to restrain him much to begin with.)
To put it another way, Trump’s loss may unchain Scott Atlas, the controversial adviser Trump has leaned on to justify a hands-off approach to the coronavirus. Atlas has spoken favorably of a “herd immunity” strategy — which experts widely reject because it would likely lead to a catastrophic death toll, but which Trump and Atlas see favorably as a way to avoid measures that can hinder the economy in the short term.
If states follow that lead, America’s already soaring Covid-19 cases and deaths will get even worse.
All of this will boost the need for comprehensive action starting from Biden’s first day in the Oval Office.
That begins with implementing the policies proven to combat Covid-19, including measures that encourage and enable social distancing to slow overall spread, get people to wear masks to protect themselves and others, and widely deploy testing and tracing to detect new outbreaks and contain them. It also requires empowering science — something that Trump has worked against as he’s contradicted expert advice, including from federal public health agencies. And Biden has to prepare the country for a vaccine, which requires not just finding a safe, effective vaccine but also mounting a vast distribution effort to get doses to hundreds of millions of Americans.
Biden, for his part, has already promised to do all of this.
But doing some of it will require Congress, which could pass economic stimulus to ease the pain of and therefore enable further social distancing, incentivize states to mandate masks, and direct more funding to vaccine efforts. With Democrats’ chances of winning the Senate now looking worse, it’s unclear how much of these measures Congress — and therefore Biden — will get done.
If done correctly, a rigorous federal response could help turn America’s Covid-19 epidemic around. Quick, decisive action can’t completely fix what Trump has done and the US has gone through so far — those 230,000-plus deaths are with us forever — but it can help.
For now, though, Jha’s point rings true: America will have to wait until Biden actually has power. And that leaves plenty of time for things to keep getting worse.
America’s Covid-19 epidemic is out of control
The US is already in a bad spot with Covid-19. Its death rate so far is within the top four for developed nations and more than five times the death rate of the median developed country. If the US had the same death rate as Canada, over 140,000 more Americans would likely be alive today.
And just like they are in much of Europe, Covid-19 cases are now rapidly increasing in the US — recently hitting more than 100,000 confirmed cases in one day for the first time.
The rise in the US and Europe doesn’t mean this was all inevitable. As Jha told me, “The truth is there’s lots of countries that have controlled it.” Among the countries that have performed much better than the US: Australia, Canada, Germany, Japan, New Zealand, South Korea, and Vietnam.
“What this outbreak gives you is the same problem for every country around the world,” Clare Wenham, a global health policy expert at the London School of Economics and Political Science, said. “So you can really see the impact of different policies that were launched.” The US’s performance “is a testament to failures of the Trump administration.”
The evidence backs several approaches to dealing with Covid-19: social distancing, aggressive testing and tracing, and widespread masking. But Trump has rejected all these approaches — demanding that states open up early and quickly, punting testing and tracing programs down to local and state governments, as well as mocking and questioning masks.
Meanwhile, the public, along with local and state leaders, has collectively become more complacent and fatigued with the pandemic. That’s led to more and more people going out, with each interaction carrying a chance of spreading the coronavirus.
This has continued despite relatively widespread inaction and apathy already leading to outbreak after outbreak in the US. As Jha has told me, “I, at this point, feel like I clearly no longer understand why our country can’t learn its lessons and why we keep repeating the same mistakes.”
As temperatures have gotten colder, particularly in northern parts of the US, people have flocked more to risky indoor spaces like bars and restaurants. In these places, people are close together for long periods; they can’t wear masks as they eat or drink; the air can’t dilute the virus like it can outdoors; and alcohol could lead people to drop their guards further. Each of these factors helps the virus spread further.
Schools have also reopened since the late summer — with colleges and universities in particular seeing big outbreaks, not only as students go back to class but also as they hit bars and restaurants, party in dorms, and hang out with their peers, friends, fraternities, and sororities.
With winter coming, all of this could get even worse. More schools will reopen. It’ll get colder in more parts of the US. Thanksgiving, Christmas, and New Year’s will bring friends and families together, including from hot spots at colleges and universities. Hospitals and other parts of the health care system may have trouble treating a bigger surge of Covid-19 patients if a flu season appears, too, potentially leading to worse outcomes across the board.
What’s particularly problematic for the US, though, is that the country is starting from such a high baseline of cases. As RTI International epidemiologist Pia MacDonald has repeatedly emphasized to me, “We never got to low enough levels [of Covid-19] to start with in most places.” The threat of exponential growth from such a point could lead to a level of spread that no country has ever seen before — not even in the spring, when the coronavirus first hit the US and Europe.
“The next number in the fall is likely going to shoot way up,” Michael Osterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy, previously told me. “Likely well beyond 65,000, 70,000,” the summer’s previous peak. “I think this fall is going to be the biggest spike of all.”
Trump’s response to the coronavirus could get even worse
Trump could, in theory, at any moment shift course and try to take the threat of Covid-19 more seriously.
Eight months into the pandemic, though, that seems very unlikely. Even after he got sick with Covid-19, Trump continued to downplay the threat of the virus: As he left the hospital, he tweeted, “Don’t be afraid of Covid. Don’t let it dominate your life.” He continued to push a false sense of normalcy in the weeks leading up to the election.
One possibility that experts worry about: As bad as Trump has been, maybe he was partially restrained by the election. If he really believes what he was preaching, he could now do even more to discourage social distancing, masking, testing, and tracing.
“I think this fall is going to be the biggest spike of all.”
“What is the Trump team, once they have lost, going to do over the next two, three months? Because they’re going to have the reins of federal power,” Jha said. “It’s going to be a very tough two, three months.” Citing his conversations with White House staff, he added, “There are a lot of people in the White House task force who are already very worried about this.”
Consider what Trump and his people were already doing behind the scenes. One of Atlas’s first actions when he joined Trump’s team was, reportedly, to push for less testing, out of fear that exposing more asymptomatic cases could lead more people to quarantine and more businesses to close down. With Atlas’s support, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention also briefly recommended less testing, especially for asymptomatic people.
Trump, who has a tendency to say the quiet part out loud, has repeatedly suggested this is what he always wanted. He said he told his people to “slow the testing down please,” since more tests revealed more cases and, in his view, could make the US look bad.
Testing is perhaps the least controversial part of this pandemic, with both Democrats and Republicans supporting it at varying levels across the country. After all, who could object to more data showing the disease’s spread? That Trump managed to make this into an issue speaks to his never-ending drive to “always play [the coronavirus] down,” as he told journalist Bob Woodward.
But unchaining Trump and Atlas from politics could go much further than testing. Both have at different points spoken favorably of a “herd immunity” strategy — one that would aim to get younger, healthier people infected and, hopefully, immune to Covid-19. The idea is this would build up enough immunity that the vast majority of the country could go back to life as normal.
Experts have widely panned this idea, pointing that it could lead to hundreds of thousands or even millions of Covid-19 deaths as massive segments of the population are infected with the virus and get seriously sick. Sweden, which appeared to try a “herd immunity” strategy while denying it was doing so, suffered one of the highest Covid-19 death rates in the world — even as its neighbors were spared significant outbreaks — before its leaders admitted to a mistake.
If the US followed such an approach, and the Trump administration worked even more against widespread social distancing, masking, testing, and tracing, it could make the country’s Covid-19 disaster even worse.
And even if Trump’s approach doesn’t get worse, the status quo clearly hasn’t been working.
One potential for optimism: Maybe Trump will shift course now that the election is behind him. Maybe he only downplayed the virus as part of his reelection bid, out of a desire to make it seem like things were fine and normal, hoping that would boost voters’ approval of his presidency. So the lack of political incentives could make Trump act more wisely.
But that assumes a level of competence and responsibility that Trump, who got his start in politics by falsely suggesting then-President Barack Obama wasn’t born in the US, has yet to display. And if Trump genuinely believes what he’s been saying for months, things could get much worse.
Biden has to be ready to strike on day one
It will be too late for Biden to do anything about a fall and winter Covid-19 surge in late January. But a Biden administration could take significant steps to put the country on a better path once he takes office. And Biden, as the president-elect, can start putting together a plan and team to accomplish this on day one.
When I previously asked experts about what Biden should do, they pointed to several ideas:
1) Implement policies that are proven to work: A Biden administration could encourage more social distancing, simultaneously offering financial support to affected people and businesses so they don’t suffer as much and don’t have another incentive to try to go back to normal. It could push, with the bully pulpit and potential funds, states to mandate masks and really enforce those mandates. It could build up a national testing-and-tracing system, fixing supply bottlenecks for widespread tests and putting money into hiring contact tracers. All of these efforts could help suppress the virus.
2) Rebuild trust in scientists: Under Trump, trust in scientific institutions has dwindled. Federal agencies like the Food and Drug Administration and the CDC were previously considered the gold standard in their fields, but now Americans and experts are increasingly questioning just how effective these once-respected institutions are, in large part because they’ve been politically polarized under Trump. By taking steps to ensure Americans that the experts are leading the response and the best science is the guide, Biden could help rebuild some faith in these institutions.
3) Prepare the country for a vaccine: If all goes well, a vaccine will be proven to be safe and effective in clinical trials before Biden takes office. But that’s just the beginning. After that, the vaccine will have to be distributed to every corner of the country so hundreds of millions of Americans can actually get it. It will be a massive operation — one that experts often compare to nationwide wartime efforts — and the federal government will need to lead that operation to ensure it all goes well.
Crucially, much of this, particularly elements that require more money, will require support from Congress. How quickly Congress acts could dictate how quickly Biden does. And with more than 800 Americans dying of Covid-19 a day now and potentially more dying once we’re in the middle of winter, every single day, week, and month will matter.
But if done correctly, this could get the US closer to normal more quickly. “If you do things the right way, you can do them,” Cedric Dark, an emergency medicine physician at the Baylor College of Medicine, previously told me. “If you do them the wrong way, then you’re going to get cases.”
Before that, however, the US will need to get through the fall and much of winter under the same leadership that’s made America’s Covid-19 outbreak one of the worst in the world.


vox--2020-11-06--Vox live results: Republicans lead the race for the Senate majority

Democrats had hoped to retake the Senate in the 2020 elections , but Republicans are looking unexpectedly strong in most of the year ’ s close races .
A favorable map seemed to bode well for the Democrats : Just 12 Democrats were up for reelection , while 23 Republicans were .
The party ’ s candidates were polling well in the battleground seats in Arizona , Colorado , Maine , and North Carolina .
Iowa , Georgia , and Montana also looked like they could be in play if Democratic turnout was particularly strong .
Instead , Republicans have @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , and Maine , and are leading in North Carolina .
The GOP also defeated Democratic Sen. Doug Jones in Alabama .
There is still some good news for the Senate ’ s minority party : Democrats got expected wins in Colorado and Arizona , and two Georgia Senate races are heading to runoffs .
But the path to a Democratic Senate majority is narrowing , with Republicans looking like the better bet to hold the chamber .
If Democrats were to gain Senate control , this shake-up would have significant implications : @ @ @ @ @ @ @ upper chamber could make or break lawmakers ’ ability to advance ambitious legislative priorities .
Currently , Republicans hold a 53-47 majority in the Senate .
That means Democrats will likely have to flip four seats in order to get to 51 , factoring in Jones ’ s loss in Alabama and a likely Biden win .
( If Biden wins , Democrats could hold the majority with 50 Senate seats , since Vice President Kamala Harris could serve as a tiebreaker . )
Due to the surge in mail-in voting this cycle @ @ @ @ @ @ @ know exactly who wins in several states , and which party holds Senate control , because of the extra time needed for these ballots to get counted .
Here ’ s how Vox ( and other media outlets ) will be making calls throughout the night and following days .
Vox is carrying live results , powered by our friends at Decision Desk .
( You can also follow live results for the presidential race here and House races here . )
There ’ s one Democrat-held seat that widely favored Republicans , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that Cook has classified as toss-ups or trending toward Democrats .
Republicans have flipped a Democratic seat in Alabama , and Democrats have flipped Colorado .
The Republican-held seats most in contention are Arizona , Maine , North Carolina , and Georgia .
The following races are just a few of the most closely contested ones this cycle : Alabama : Sen. Doug Jones , the most vulnerable Democrat in the Senate , tried to fend off a challenge from former Auburn University football coach Tommy Tuberville — who has aligned himself closely @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to win given the conservative skew of the state , and the unique circumstances at play in Jones ’ s special election victory in 2017 .
Colorado : Sen. Cory Gardner was up against popular former Gov .
John Hickenlooper in a state where Democrats have been making steady inroads for years .
Gardner emphasized his work on bipartisan priorities like funding for land conservation and immigration reform , but his connection to Trump doomed him with swing voters in an increasingly left-leaning state .
North Carolina : Sen. Thom Tillis is yet @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are coming back to hurt him in the general election among independent voters and suburban women in a broadly diversifying electorate .
His opponent , veteran Cal Cunningham , has also dealt with an extramarital affair scandal in the weeks ahead of the election .
It doesn ’ t seem to have affected his polling lead , but the race appears tight as votes come in .
Arizona : Martha McSally is running once again for an Arizona seat to affirm her appointment as senator , this time against former Astronaut Mark Kelly @ @ @ @ @ @ @ McSally ’ s run in 2018 have only become more apparent : Moderate Republicans that previously moved away from Trump — and candidates aligned with him — are continuing to do so .
And Latinx voters who have previously leaned Democratic are continuing to grow their share of the electorate .
Maine : Sen. Susan Collins faces her toughest challenge yet from Maine House Speaker Sara Gideon , who is known in the state for her work fighting for renewable energy legislation .
Collins has tried to distance herself from Trump some — @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ll be voting for in the election and voting against his most recent Supreme Court nominee Amy Coney Barrett .
Iowa : Sen. Joni Ernst ran as an outsider who would hold Washington accountable for excessive spending , but as the incumbent , she caught flak for her closeness to the president and his damaging trade and ethanol policies .
Meanwhile , real estate developer and challenger Theresa Greenfield emphasized her moderate bona fides and knowledge of industry in the state .
Update : Joni Ernst ( R ) has won reelection in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ John Cornyn has fended off Democrat MJ Hegar to win reelection in Texas Correction , 11/3 6:30 pm ET : This post has been updated to accurately reflect poll closing times in Alaska and Hawaii .

Democrats had hoped to retake the Senate in the 2020 elections, but Republicans are looking unexpectedly strong in most of the year’s close races.
A favorable map seemed to bode well for the Democrats: Just 12 Democrats were up for reelection, while 23 Republicans were. The party’s candidates were polling well in the battleground seats in Arizona, Colorado, Maine, and North Carolina. Iowa, Georgia, and Montana also looked like they could be in play if Democratic turnout was particularly strong.
Instead, Republicans have already claimed victory in Iowa, Montana, and Maine, and are leading in North Carolina. The GOP also defeated Democratic Sen. Doug Jones in Alabama.
There is still some good news for the Senate’s minority party: Democrats got expected wins in Colorado and Arizona, and two Georgia Senate races are heading to runoffs.
But the path to a Democratic Senate majority is narrowing, with Republicans looking like the better bet to hold the chamber.
If Democrats were to gain Senate control, this shake-up would have significant implications: Under a Joe Biden administration, the upper chamber could make or break lawmakers’ ability to advance ambitious legislative priorities.
Currently, Republicans hold a 53-47 majority in the Senate. That means Democrats will likely have to flip four seats in order to get to 51, factoring in Jones’s loss in Alabama and a likely Biden win. (If Biden wins, Democrats could hold the majority with 50 Senate seats, since Vice President Kamala Harris could serve as a tiebreaker.)
Due to the surge in mail-in voting this cycle, it could take a while to know exactly who wins in several states, and which party holds Senate control, because of the extra time needed for these ballots to get counted. Here’s how Vox (and other media outlets) will be making calls throughout the night and following days.
Vox is carrying live results, powered by our friends at Decision Desk. (You can also follow live results for the presidential race here and House races here.)
Key races to watch
There’s one Democrat-held seat that widely favored Republicans, while there are several more GOP-held seats that Cook has classified as toss-ups or trending toward Democrats. Republicans have flipped a Democratic seat in Alabama, and Democrats have flipped Colorado. The Republican-held seats most in contention are Arizona, Maine, North Carolina, and Georgia.
The following races are just a few of the most closely contested ones this cycle:
Alabama: Sen. Doug Jones, the most vulnerable Democrat in the Senate, tried to fend off a challenge from former Auburn University football coach Tommy Tuberville — who has aligned himself closely with Trump. Tuberville was widely favored to win given the conservative skew of the state, and the unique circumstances at play in Jones’s special election victory in 2017.
Update: Tommy Tuberville (R) has won the Alabama Senate race.
Colorado: Sen. Cory Gardner was up against popular former Gov. John Hickenlooper in a state where Democrats have been making steady inroads for years. Gardner emphasized his work on bipartisan priorities like funding for land conservation and immigration reform, but his connection to Trump doomed him with swing voters in an increasingly left-leaning state.
Update: John Hickenlooper (D) has won the Colorado race.
North Carolina: Sen. Thom Tillis is yet another Republican whose allegiances to the president are coming back to hurt him in the general election among independent voters and suburban women in a broadly diversifying electorate. His opponent, veteran Cal Cunningham, has also dealt with an extramarital affair scandal in the weeks ahead of the election. It doesn’t seem to have affected his polling lead, but the race appears tight as votes come in.
Arizona: Martha McSally is running once again for an Arizona seat to affirm her appointment as senator, this time against former Astronaut Mark Kelly. Many of the factors that thwarted McSally’s run in 2018 have only become more apparent: Moderate Republicans that previously moved away from Trump — and candidates aligned with him — are continuing to do so. And Latinx voters who have previously leaned Democratic are continuing to grow their share of the electorate.
Update: Mark Kelly (D) has won the Arizona race.
Maine: Sen. Susan Collins faces her toughest challenge yet from Maine House Speaker Sara Gideon, who is known in the state for her work fighting for renewable energy legislation. Collins has tried to distance herself from Trump some — repeatedly declining to say who she’ll be voting for in the election and voting against his most recent Supreme Court nominee Amy Coney Barrett.
Update: Susan Collins (R) has won reelection in Maine.
Iowa: Sen. Joni Ernst ran as an outsider who would hold Washington accountable for excessive spending, but as the incumbent, she caught flak for her closeness to the president and his damaging trade and ethanol policies. Meanwhile, real estate developer and challenger Theresa Greenfield emphasized her moderate bona fides and knowledge of industry in the state.
Update: Joni Ernst (R) has won reelection in the Iowa Senate race.
Read more
Correction, 11/3 6:30 pm ET: This post has been updated to accurately reflect poll closing times in Alaska and Hawaii.


vox--2020-11-06--The US Covid-19 epidemic hit a deadly new milestone, and help isn’t on the way

The United States has passed another stunning benchmark in the Covid-19 pandemic , recording 121,200 new cases on Thursday .
That followed Wednesday ’ s record-breaking 100,000-plus case toll .
And the worst is almost certainly still to come .
This doesn ’ t look like the peak ; we ’ re in the midst of a climb .
Next week , another record may be broken .
What ’ s more , the continued deterioration of the public health situation is happening all over the country .
There ’ s no single hot spot or epicenter .
With the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the virus is spreading uncontrolled north to south , west to east .
The concern isn ’ t just about the record number of new infections — the number of people in hospitals across the country is ascending , too , hitting 53,322 on November 5 , according to the Covid Tracking Project .
That ’ s the highest number since early August .
And the trend has been accompanied by an increase in daily Covid-19 deaths , which has crept above 1,000 several days over the past two weeks .
It should @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Covid-19 has declined since the start of the pandemic .
Doctors have learned more about how to treat the illness , more testing has helped identify hidden infections , and a better understanding of Covid-19 symptoms has allowed patients to seek help earlier in the course of the illness .
But an uncontrolled spread of the infection means that cases will still rise and hospitals could get overwhelmed , undoing the gains in saving lives and raising the death rate again .
These facts are a rebuke to President Trump , who has @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Covid-19 were overblown , that it was simply being weaponized as an election issue , and that the disease would fade away on its own .
In fact , scientists , including Trump ’ s own advisers , have raised the alarm that the worst days of the pandemic lie ahead — with record spread in the cold winter months , when people are more likely to gather indoors .
“ We are entering the most concerning and most deadly phase of this pandemic , ” White House Coronavirus Response Coordinator Deborah Birx @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The need for immediate action against the virus is immense .
But nothing is likely to change in the next two and a half months .
Without a vaccine , the tactics needed to limit the spread of Covid-19 are the same as they ’ ve been throughout the pandemic : widespread testing , social distancing , good hygiene , wearing face masks consistently , and so on .
But the US is still struggling to implement these measures .
Some hospitals continue to have difficulty getting enough personal protective equipment while testing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to implement mandates to wear face masks in public places , and some are already easing the few pandemic control measures they had in place .
From the federal government , the public health messaging around the pandemic continues to be incoherent as President Trump and some of his advisers undermine health officials .
The presidential election has been called for Biden , but the concerns aren ’ t goin away .
In Biden , America will get a leader who can ’ t do much , even if he wanted to , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ t take power until after the inauguration , on January 20 .
Between now and January , one thing ’ s for sure : The virus won ’ t stop .
As the winter progresses , cases are expected to climb .
Biden will have the challenge of stopping a pandemic that ’ s been doubly infected with partisan attitudes about its severity , and he ’ ll have to do the hard work of coordinating the country ’ s fractured state-by-state , county-by-county responses to the outbreaks .
All the while @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
And the more people the virus infects , the harder the pandemic becomes to contain .
Researchers and health officials have been concerned for months that a fall and winter spike in Covid-19 cases was looming .
“ There ’ s a possibility that the assault of the virus on our nation next winter will actually be even more difficult than the one we just went through , ” CDC Director Robert Redfield told the Washington Post in April .
“ And when I ’ ve said this to others , they @ @ @ @ @ @ @ they don ’ t understand what I mean.
” Americans were warned , as early as March , that there would be no going back to normal life until community transmission of the virus had been suppressed .
We were warned that any successes achieved through business closures and social distancing would have to be replaced by equally effective public health measures if we were to take steps toward returning to life as normal .
In many parts of the country , those alternative strategies never came .
Scientists also told us that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ pandemic for potentially years without a vaccine .
That ’ s still true .
Yet this fall , as it became more apparent that the United States was on track for a major increase in Covid-19 cases , states like Florida were relaxing restrictions , allowing bars and restaurants to reopen for indoor patrons .
( A similar pattern emerged this summer as cities and states relaxed restrictions even as cases were rising , fueling a spike in new infections in June . )
Trump essentially campaigned on a promise to continue pushing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ at the cost of public health .
While a majority of Americans want to see the pandemic controlled before reopening , even if it hurts the economy , 76 percent of Republicans in exit polls took the opposite view : They want the economy to reopen first .
With Trump still in office until the end of January , we can expect this approach to reign through a dark winter .

The United States has passed another stunning benchmark in the Covid-19 pandemic, recording 121,200 new cases on Thursday.
That followed Wednesday’s record-breaking 100,000-plus case toll. And the worst is almost certainly still to come. This doesn’t look like the peak; we’re in the midst of a climb. Next week, another record may be broken.
What’s more, the continued deterioration of the public health situation is happening all over the country. There’s no single hot spot or epicenter. With the exception of a handful of states, the virus is spreading uncontrolled north to south, west to east.
The concern isn’t just about the record number of new infections — the number of people in hospitals across the country is ascending, too, hitting 53,322 on November 5, according to the Covid Tracking Project. That’s the highest number since early August. And the trend has been accompanied by an increase in daily Covid-19 deaths, which has crept above 1,000 several days over the past two weeks.
It should be noted that the mortality rate of Covid-19 has declined since the start of the pandemic. Doctors have learned more about how to treat the illness, more testing has helped identify hidden infections, and a better understanding of Covid-19 symptoms has allowed patients to seek help earlier in the course of the illness.
But an uncontrolled spread of the infection means that cases will still rise and hospitals could get overwhelmed, undoing the gains in saving lives and raising the death rate again.
These facts are a rebuke to President Trump, who has claimed throughout the pandemic that concerns about Covid-19 were overblown, that it was simply being weaponized as an election issue, and that the disease would fade away on its own.
In fact, scientists, including Trump’s own advisers, have raised the alarm that the worst days of the pandemic lie ahead — with record spread in the cold winter months, when people are more likely to gather indoors. “We are entering the most concerning and most deadly phase of this pandemic,” White House Coronavirus Response Coordinator Deborah Birx wrote in a November 2 memo.
The need for immediate action against the virus is immense. But nothing is likely to change in the next two and a half months.
Without a vaccine, the tactics needed to limit the spread of Covid-19 are the same as they’ve been throughout the pandemic: widespread testing, social distancing, good hygiene, wearing face masks consistently, and so on.
But the US is still struggling to implement these measures. Some hospitals continue to have difficulty getting enough personal protective equipment while testing shortages persist. Many states have yet to implement mandates to wear face masks in public places, and some are already easing the few pandemic control measures they had in place. From the federal government, the public health messaging around the pandemic continues to be incoherent as President Trump and some of his advisers undermine health officials.
The presidential election has been called for Biden, but the concerns aren’t going away.
In Biden, America will get a leader who can’t do much, even if he wanted to, in the short term: He can’t take power until after the inauguration, on January 20.
Between now and January, one thing’s for sure: The virus won’t stop. As the winter progresses, cases are expected to climb. Biden will have the challenge of stopping a pandemic that’s been doubly infected with partisan attitudes about its severity, and he’ll have to do the hard work of coordinating the country’s fractured state-by-state, county-by-county responses to the outbreaks.
All the while, Covid-19 will continue sickening and killing. And the more people the virus infects, the harder the pandemic becomes to contain.
We were warned
Researchers and health officials have been concerned for months that a fall and winter spike in Covid-19 cases was looming.
“There’s a possibility that the assault of the virus on our nation next winter will actually be even more difficult than the one we just went through,” CDC Director Robert Redfield told the Washington Post in April. “And when I’ve said this to others, they kind of put their head back, they don’t understand what I mean.”
Americans were warned, as early as March, that there would be no going back to normal life until community transmission of the virus had been suppressed. We were warned that any successes achieved through business closures and social distancing would have to be replaced by equally effective public health measures if we were to take steps toward returning to life as normal. In many parts of the country, those alternative strategies never came.
Scientists also told us that we’d be living with the pandemic for potentially years without a vaccine. That’s still true.
Yet this fall, as it became more apparent that the United States was on track for a major increase in Covid-19 cases, states like Florida were relaxing restrictions, allowing bars and restaurants to reopen for indoor patrons. (A similar pattern emerged this summer as cities and states relaxed restrictions even as cases were rising, fueling a spike in new infections in June.)
Trump essentially campaigned on a promise to continue pushing ahead with reopening the economy, even at the cost of public health. While a majority of Americans want to see the pandemic controlled before reopening, even if it hurts the economy, 76 percent of Republicans in exit polls took the opposite view: They want the economy to reopen first. With Trump still in office until the end of January, we can expect this approach to reign through a dark winter.