vox--2020-09-25--The truth about violent crime in American cities, explained in 11 charts

Next week , President Donald Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden will face each other for the first time on the debate stage .
Some of the most pressing problems of our time will be front and center : the coronavirus pandemic , the Supreme Court vacancy , and the fight for racial justice .
So far , the candidates ’ discussion of justice issues has focused less on how to address America ’ s longstanding inequity and more on how cities are facing a violent crime surge in a time of unrest — and who is to blame @ @ @ @ @ @ @ spoken of bringing “ law and order ” to Democrat-run cities that are full of “ anarchy and mayhem , ” even though racial justice protests around the country this summer have been mostly peaceful .
Biden , on the other hand , has mostly skirted talk of unrest , emphasizing that the crime rate dropped while he was the vice president and that a surge of murders happened under Trump ’ s watch .
Wading through these mixed messages of what ’ s happening in cities , it ’ s hard to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Most types of crime decreased this summer , while serious violent crimes — such as aggravated assault and murder — increased , according to an analysis of crime rates in 27 major US cities by the Council on Criminal Justice , a criminal justice think tank .
A preliminary crime report published by the FBI earlier this month shows similar trends nationwide .
To make sense of what this all means , the Marshall Project and Vox have parsed findings from January to June , as well as decades prior for comparison , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ reports , public opinion polls , and stats on policing and jail populations .
Politicians and pundits are pointing fingers at what they believe caused the increase in violent crime rates : the protests against police violence , movements to defund the police , and efforts to release people from overcrowded jails and prisons ravaged by the coronavirus .
But the data available thus far does not support that these are the culprits .
Understanding what drives crime rates is tricky because there ’ s no single cause or answer .
This is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ has introduced unfamiliar patterns .
What is known , however , is that sensational media reports and misleading statements from politicians can blow the degree of violence out of proportion and make the public believe that crime is increasing , even when it isn ’ t .
As the country gears up for the presidential election — and the messaging of politicians and the media that comes with it — here are 11 data visualizations , along with analysis , that can help think through what the summer ’ s crime trends mean @ @ @ @ @ @ @ crime was up in early summer ; nonviolent and property crime was down Beginning in late March , cities across the country saw a decrease in most types of crime , including burglary , theft , robbery , and drug crimes , according to the Council on Criminal Justice report .
Richard Rosenfeld , a criminology professor at the University of Missouri St. Louis who authored the report , said that cities ’ shutdowns beginning in March largely drove the decreases this summer .
More people staying at home meant fewer houses were @ @ @ @ @ @ @ at night meant fewer opportunities for theft and robbery , for example .
But for some of the most violent crimes , such as shootings , aggravated assault , and murders , the number of incidents in the cities we examined have increased in the pandemic .
Compared with a three-year average between 2017 and 2019 , homicides increased 25 percent between April and June .
Data included in the Council on Criminal Justice ’ s report stops at the end of June , and doesn ’ t include cities like Portland , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ where protest tensions rose and shootings occurred , by a counterprotester and a vigilante , respectively , in August .
Or in Louisville , Kentucky , where two police officers were shot on Wednesday following a grand jury ’ s decision not to charge any officers for killing Breonna Taylor .
That said , some reports show violent crime continued at elevated rates in July and August and property crime rates have gone down .
David Abrams , a law and public policy professor at the University of Pennsylvania , has examined major @ @ @ @ @ @ @ beginning of the pandemic .
He publishes real-time crime trends on City Crime Stats , an online data portal that allows viewers to explore how specific types of crime changed in each city .
While the data portal shows similar trends in upticks of murder and decreases in other crimes , pinpointing the exact factors that drive up murders is much more complicated than understanding what caused the decrease in crimes like burglaries , Abrams said .
One of the main reasons : The motivation behind burglaries or larceny is often money , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is more varied , he said .
Many factors might play into these increases : A 60 percent surge in gun purchases can be followed by more shootings ; trapping domestic violence survivors and abusers under the same roof during the quarantine may cause more assaults and murders ; and Covid-19 has made police outreach work even more difficult .
The pandemic has also turned families and support systems upside down — unemployment is high , schools and many summer programs have closed , and people , especially from low-income communities and communities @ @ @ @ @ @ @ death in their families from Covid-19 , making routines and structures impossible to maintain .
Dorothy Johnson-Speight , a community organizer in Philadelphia , said she is especially troubled by how many shootings and violent crimes involved young people this summer .
She noted that not only have schools closed , but so have most youth programs that can give young people a sense of structure and belonging .
Johnson-Speight , who founded the violence prevention group Mothers in Charge after her son was killed in 2001 over a parking dispute , believes @ @ @ @ @ @ @ year involved people who are under the age of 18 , though official police figures are not available .
A recent example was a 16-year-old shot dead on September 21 , with an 18-year-old and a 12-year-old shot on the same day .
“ The anxiety and pain and grief are on steroids because of what ’ s happening with Covid , ” Johnson-Speight said .
“ People have no way of seeing things getting better , and there is nothing at the end of the tunnel .
What I hear from parents @ @ @ @ @ @ @ children is , ‘ What ’ s going to happen next ?
Will my other children suffer the same thing ?
’ ” While the pandemic brings much uncertainty , there is one thing that may lead to a drop in crime : the weather .
Historical trends show that the violent crime rate often increases in the summer , reaches its peak in the fall , and drops to the lowest point in winter — as temperatures decrease and people retreat indoors again .
Following the police killing of George Floyd , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in May , protests against police violence and systemic racism quickly spread across the country , from major cities to historically conservative , majority-white towns — more so perhaps than any civil rights protests in the nation ’ s history .
However , with the protests came news coverage focused on riots , lootings , and scenes of chaos , despite an estimated 93 percent of protests being peaceful .
President Donald Trump has said little about the police violence against George Floyd , Breonna Taylor , Jacob Blake , and other Black @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ law and order.
” In July , with Black Lives Matter protests still happening in major cities , Trump sent in federal law enforcement agents to nine cities led by Democratic mayors to stop what the president called “ shootings , killings , murders and heinous crimes of violence , ” whether or not any of those things were happening in those places .
“ This bloodshed must end , ” Trump said during official remarks in July .
“ This bloodshed will end.
” The implication was that the protests had @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ bloodshed ” — but was that true ?
The nationwide protests kicked off in late May , when homicides remained low .
There was an increase in mid-June , but the Council on Criminal Justice ’ s data does not break down where the murders happened in each city , which makes it difficult to analyze protests ’ direct impact on violent crime .
What is known is that Black Lives Matter demonstrations have been mostly peaceful .
Researchers at the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project analyzed more than 7,750 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ August , and found that less than 7 percent of the protest were violent , which the researchers define as where “ demonstrators themselves engage in violently disruptive and/or destructive acts targeting other individuals , property , businesses , other rioting groups or armed actors.
” This can range from vandalism and looting to clashing with the police , a much wider net than police ’ s definition of “ violent crime , ” which include rape and sexual assault , robbery , assault , and murder .
If anything , aggressive and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ violent , researchers concluded .
For example , before Trump deployed the federal task force to Portland , Oregon , 17 percent of the demonstrations were violent ; after federal law enforcement agents entered Portland , the share of violent demonstrations more than doubled , to 42 percent .
Criminologists have warned that sending in federal law enforcement officers , like border patrol agents or Bureau of Prisons guards , with no training or knowledge on local issues can do more harm than good .
Another unintended consequence of escalating federal involvement in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s trust in the police .
Even before this summer , victims of violent crime said some of the most common reasons that stopped them from going to the police were they “ dealt with it another way , ” “ fear of reprisal or getting offender in trouble , ” and “ police would not or could not help.
” An increasing distrust in police may lead to more vigilantism and more unreported crimes .
Also , violent crimes are rare enough that small changes in absolute numbers can lead to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s especially true for the most serious kind of violent crimes like murders .
For example , homicides in 20 cities tracked in Rosenfeld ’ s report increased by more than 50 percent around the last week of June , which is an alarming trend compared to the past three years .
However , looking at the raw numbers , homicides increased from roughly 70 homicides per week to 101 per week , or fewer than one additional death in each city every day .
Most of the increase took place in Chicago @ @ @ @ @ @ @ trend : While the trauma and loss that accompany each murder can not be measured by numbers , the level of violence in American cities does not come close to the level of violence during the 1990s , where nearly every 30 in 100,000 people were killed .
In recent years , it ’ s been about 10 in 100,000 .
In all , criminologists say it ’ s difficult to draw any conclusions between protests and violent crimes — especially during a time when the US coronavirus death toll surpassed 100,000 , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of unemployment , and coronavirus-related precautions restricted police ’ s ability to solve crimes .
That said , some more common crimes associated with protests , such as burglary , can perhaps shed more insight on the impact of protests on crime .
Commercial burglary — or breaking into a business establishment — is typically associated with what is commonly called looting .
Among all types of crimes tracked in the Council on Criminal Justice report , commercial burglary had the most significant spike in the beginning of June , when police violence @ @ @ @ @ @ @ week , the number of commercial burglaries in major US cities jumped from nearly 5,000 to almost 10,000 .
But the number of incidents dropped just as quickly in the following week , back to below-normal levels .
The evidence suggests that significant looting was confined to the first wave of protests .
But there could be another explanation : Active police enforcement — or an emphasis on enforcing specific crimes — can swing crime rates up and down .
Something to know about crime trends : They are shaped by police action @ @ @ @ @ @ @ reports collected by law enforcement agencies .
Crime reports are created when law enforcement responds to calls or uses tactics such as traffic stops or stop-and-frisk .
While the Supreme Court ruled that it ’ s illegal to stop and frisk someone simply for living in a “ high crime area , ” research still shows people in predominantly Black and Hispanic neighborhoods are searched a lot more frequently .
Even though most people who are stopped are innocent , their interactions with the police can have lasting effects , including feeling discouraged @ @ @ @ @ @ @ themselves .
New York City is a good example of the power of police-initiated actions .
When the city began to shut down in April , the number of drug crimes plummeted .
Then it began to steadily increase through April and May , as people emerged from lockdown and police officers began patrolling again , getting close to pre-pandemic levels .
And when the protests sparked by Floyd ’ s death spread across the city in late May and early June , the number of drug crimes again dropped overnight .
It @ @ @ @ @ @ @ represents how the number of people consuming and selling drugs changed over this summer , said Alice Fontier , managing director of the Neighborhood Defender Service of Harlem , a public defender ’ s office .
What the data shows , Fontier said , is how the New York Police Department deployed its officers throughout the summer .
When the pandemic first hit , the department was pulling back on drug searches , partially because many officers were under quarantine .
Their practice began to return to normal until protests against police violence @ @ @ @ @ @ @ department ’ s officers shifted to crowd control instead , Fontier said .
NYPD did not respond to multiple inquiries by The Marshall Project , but during an interview with the Police Executive Research Forum , NYPD Commissioner Dermot Shea said he found the narrative of police pulling back because of protests “ offensive.
” New York ’ s trend in drug crimes is similar to what the data shows in many other cities , including Chicago , Philadelphia , and Memphis .
When a significant number of officers are under quarantine for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ resources from making drug busts to responding to protests in riot gear , crime trends change accordingly .
“ What we see and experience over time is that the number of drug arrests is directly correlated to the amount of focus and resources the NYPD puts into these cases , ” Fontier told The Marshall Project .
Releasing low-risk people from jails and prisons didn ’ t drive up crime rates As Covid-19 began to spread across the country in April , jails and prison soon became hot spots for the outbreak .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ surprise .
Overcrowding in prison and jails means some facilities have people sleeping on the ground , and in most facilities , even basic Centers for Disease Control and Prevention guidelines such as hand-washing with soap or covering your mouth when you sneeze are virtually impossible to follow .
At the beginning of the pandemic , some jails moved to cut down their populations , releasing people who were incarcerated for pretrial detention or who were almost finished with their misdemeanor sentences .
And some prisons , which incarcerate people who are convicted @ @ @ @ @ @ @ just as quickly .
Some victims of crimes were upset about the early releases , and police departments claimed that coronavirus-related jail releases drove the spike in violent crime .
Data contradicts this narrative .
A recent study by the American Civil Liberties Union shows that in 28 major US cities that saw a decrease in jail population between March and May , all but one ( Denver ) also saw decreases in the most serious type of crimes this summer .
At the beginning of the pandemic , San Francisco District Attorney @ @ @ @ @ @ @ releasing people from jail , or arresting fewer people , would lead to more crimes , and that the price of keeping jail inmates safe from Covid-19 is too high .
Yet there was no crime surge .
Between March and May , San Francisco ’ s jail population dropped by more than 40 percent .
Its crime rate also dropped sharply compared to the same period in 2019 .
Both trends , Boudin said , were “ unprecedented.
” “ If fewer people are incarcerated , then more people will be able @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , and get the mental health help they need , ” Boudin said .
“ That all leads to fewer crimes.
” In Denver , the only city that saw an increase in crime and the largest decrease in jail population ( by almost 800 people ) , the trend is short term , and it ’ s hard to read too much into the numbers , Denver Police Chief Paul Pazen told The Marshall Project .
While virtually all types of crimes have gone down in Denver , Pazen said commercial burglaries @ @ @ @ @ @ @ businesses closed during the pandemic , his department saw commercial burglaries more than double this summer .
More than 60 percent of the stores were broken into by people who are homeless , Pazen said .
It ’ s too early to tell if “ defund ” efforts have impacted crime rates After the death of George Floyd , “ defunding ” the police , or moving money from police spending to social services , became central to the police reform conversation .
A few cities have started the defunding process , but @ @ @ @ @ @ @ recent trends .
For example , Minneapolis City Council members vowed to disband the police department following Floyd ’ s death , but their effort is facing major setbacks .
In New York City , the nearly $ 1 billion cut to its police budget took effect on July 1 , after murders and shootings were already rising in the city .
How “ defund ” policies affect crime remains to be seen .
What is clear is the coronavirus is likely to cause the first major drop in police spending in decades @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 220 to $ 280 per resident from 2000 to 2017 , even when violent crime decreased by more than 20 percent during the same time .
Nearly half of 258 police chiefs and sheriffs who responded to a recent survey said they are expecting or already receiving budget cuts in the coming year , according to the Police Executive Research Forum .
Most of the cuts range between 5 and 10 percent .
Many police chiefs who responded to the survey warn that unintended consequences may come out of the budget cuts .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ mean fewer patrols , longer response time , and less proactive actions from the police department .
The domino effect , they warn , will eventually lead to a spike in the crime rate .
Richard Auxier , a senior policy associate in the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center , said payroll costs often take up 60 to 70 percent of the police budget , meaning that things like hiring freezes , pay cuts , and layoffs are likely first steps .
But it ’ s too early to say how those budget cuts @ @ @ @ @ @ @ if more policing leads to less crime , activists warn that it carries collateral consequences , such as more arrests and the general harassment of minority communities , that other approaches don ’ t have .
The more important part of the “ defund the police ” conversation should be about how we should spend the money instead , Auxier said .
For example , a 2018 study shows that one-quarter of people who died in police shootings showed signs of mental illness , and the recent police suffocation of Daniel Prude has @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are better suited to handle these interactions than police .
Alternative programs are not new , and they ’ ve been proven to create a safer community .
In Eugene , Oregon , a 30-year-old program has been successful at reducing police interactions with people who are in crisis , dispatching medics and mental health professionals to respond to 911 calls that are not about crime — like mental illness , homelessness , or addiction .
In 2019 , they responded to 20 percent of all 911 calls in the town , costing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ police interventions .
Cities like Olympia , Washington , and Denver have also adopted similar programs .
The way we see crime is politicized and influenced by news sources So is violent crime out of control ?
That can depend on whom you ask — and which cable news station they watch .
For example , this summer , Fox News has spent more time covering violent crime than CNN and MSNBC combined , according to an analysis of data compiled by the Stanford Cable TV News Analyzer .
Since the police killing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ leaned into a narrative of looting and property destruction , filling its segments with headlines like “ Portland Plagued by Violent Clashes , Riots ” and “ Businesses Experience Worst Looting in Decades.
” While CNN and MSNBC ’ s coverage of violence and crime also spiked after the Floyd protests took off in May , it has dropped significantly since then .
In the 2000s , cable and local TV news became more popular , contributing to a shift in public opinion on crime .
Before the early 2000s , more and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in the United States , according to Gallup polling data , which matched the truth — that crime rates were decreasing .
However , that trend was completely reversed in 2001 , and not much has changed since : As crime continues to decrease , more people believe the opposite is true — that crime is up .
Dan Romer , research director of the Annenberg Public Policy Center , said the rise of police television shows , like NCIS and CSI , and how much airtime local TV news gives to violent @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , who studies media and its social impact , said producers at local TV news stations face daily pressure to fill the evening report with different beats , like sports , local government , news , and crime — and the idea is to capture viewers ’ attention .
“ No matter what is going on , there ’ s going to be a crime in the news region of the news station , ” Romer said .
“ It can be hit-and-run , it can be shooting — the crime news hole @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that ’ s an attention-getter .
The crime rates could be changing dramatically , but they wouldn ’ t know it.
” Bias in reporting and story selection can also plague how crime is portrayed in local TV news , Romer said .
For example , there has historically been emphasis on stories where the suspect is Black and the victim is white , even though Black men are more likely to be victims of violent crimes .
This sways public opinion , too .
“ People talked about media literacy and teaching @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
“ People need to know even though they see a lot of violence on local news or hero movies , it ’ s not necessarily what the world is like.
” This extends to how politicians paint America .
Americans disagree on a lot of things , but a recent poll by Monmouth University shows that Republicans , Democrats , and independent voters all agree that maintaining law and order is a major problem in the country right now .
What they disagree about is the root cause of the problem , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ solve the problem .
For example , while 24 percent of people believe the actions of protesters are fully justified , just as many people believe they are not justified at all .
The split on whether Trump or Biden can solve the problem is similarly even .
The disagreements often fall along party lines , which may also be influenced by where people get their news .
Abrams says the news — as well as politicians — won ’ t give you the full story when it comes to crime , though @ @ @ @ @ @ @ reporting the numbers .
“ If there is a bad weekend with a lot of shootings , people want to know what happened , and rightfully so , ” Abrams said .
“ But to really understand how crime has changed , let ’ s look at the week , the month , the year , the decade .
Crime has gone way , way down from the peaks in the ’ 80s and ’ 90s .
Even the highest spikes in a few cities over the summer are small blips in comparison.
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ on Presidential Debates announced six topics moderator Chris Wallace has selected for the first debate on September 29 , including “ Race and Violence in Our Cities.
” This framing , that the two are interlinked , is the problematic narrative that Romer warned about .
It is also a near guarantee that racial justice protests and the violent crime streak this summer will be focal points of the debate .
Understanding the nuance and context of crime rates is crucial for evaluating each candidate ’ s story of what the unrest and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
This article was published in partnership with the Marshall Project , a nonprofit news organization covering the US criminal justice system .
Help keep Vox free for all Millions turn to Vox each month to understand what ’ s happening in the news , from the coronavirus crisis to a racial reckoning to what is , quite possibly , the most consequential presidential election of our lifetimes .
Our mission has never been more vital than it is in this moment : to empower you through understanding .
But our distinctive brand @ @ @ @ @ @ @ when the economy and the news advertising market recovers , your support will be a critical part of sustaining our resource-intensive work .
If you have already contributed , thank you .
If you haven ’ t , please consider helping everyone make sense of an increasingly chaotic world : Contribute today from as little as $ 3 .

Next week, President Donald Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden will face each other for the first time on the debate stage. Some of the most pressing problems of our time will be front and center: the coronavirus pandemic, the Supreme Court vacancy, and the fight for racial justice. So far, the candidates’ discussion of justice issues has focused less on how to address America’s longstanding inequity and more on how cities are facing a violent crime surge in a time of unrest — and who is to blame.
Trump and his supporters have repeatedly spoken of bringing “law and order” to Democrat-run cities that are full of “anarchy and mayhem,” even though racial justice protests around the country this summer have been mostly peaceful. Biden, on the other hand, has mostly skirted talk of unrest, emphasizing that the crime rate dropped while he was the vice president and that a surge of murders happened under Trump’s watch.
Wading through these mixed messages of what’s happening in cities, it’s hard to tell just what the data says. Most types of crime decreased this summer, while serious violent crimes — such as aggravated assault and murder — increased, according to an analysis of crime rates in 27 major US cities by the Council on Criminal Justice, a criminal justice think tank. A preliminary crime report published by the FBI earlier this month shows similar trends nationwide.
To make sense of what this all means, the Marshall Project and Vox have parsed findings from January to June, as well as decades prior for comparison, of not just crime data but media reports, public opinion polls, and stats on policing and jail populations. Politicians and pundits are pointing fingers at what they believe caused the increase in violent crime rates: the protests against police violence, movements to defund the police, and efforts to release people from overcrowded jails and prisons ravaged by the coronavirus. But the data available thus far does not support that these are the culprits.
Understanding what drives crime rates is tricky because there’s no single cause or answer. This is especially true in the pandemic, which has introduced unfamiliar patterns. What is known, however, is that sensational media reports and misleading statements from politicians can blow the degree of violence out of proportion and make the public believe that crime is increasing, even when it isn’t.
As the country gears up for the presidential election — and the messaging of politicians and the media that comes with it — here are 11 data visualizations, along with analysis, that can help think through what the summer’s crime trends mean and how to move forward.
Violent crime was up in early summer; nonviolent and property crime was down
Beginning in late March, cities across the country saw a decrease in most types of crime, including burglary, theft, robbery, and drug crimes, according to the Council on Criminal Justice report.
Richard Rosenfeld, a criminology professor at the University of Missouri St. Louis who authored the report, said that cities’ shutdowns beginning in March largely drove the decreases this summer. More people staying at home meant fewer houses were broken into; fewer people going out at night meant fewer opportunities for theft and robbery, for example.
But for some of the most violent crimes, such as shootings, aggravated assault, and murders, the number of incidents in the cities we examined have increased in the pandemic. Compared with a three-year average between 2017 and 2019, homicides increased 25 percent between April and June.
Data included in the Council on Criminal Justice’s report stops at the end of June, and doesn’t include cities like Portland, Oregon, and Kenosha, Wisconsin, where protest tensions rose and shootings occurred, by a counterprotester and a vigilante, respectively, in August. Or in Louisville, Kentucky, where two police officers were shot on Wednesday following a grand jury’s decision not to charge any officers for killing Breonna Taylor. That said, some reports show violent crime continued at elevated rates in July and August and property crime rates have gone down.
David Abrams, a law and public policy professor at the University of Pennsylvania, has examined major cities’ public crime data since the beginning of the pandemic. He publishes real-time crime trends on City Crime Stats, an online data portal that allows viewers to explore how specific types of crime changed in each city.
While the data portal shows similar trends in upticks of murder and decreases in other crimes, pinpointing the exact factors that drive up murders is much more complicated than understanding what caused the decrease in crimes like burglaries, Abrams said.
One of the main reasons: The motivation behind burglaries or larceny is often money, whereas the motivation behind murders and shootings is more varied, he said.
Many factors might play into these increases: A 60 percent surge in gun purchases can be followed by more shootings; trapping domestic violence survivors and abusers under the same roof during the quarantine may cause more assaults and murders; and Covid-19 has made police outreach work even more difficult. The pandemic has also turned families and support systems upside down — unemployment is high, schools and many summer programs have closed, and people, especially from low-income communities and communities of color, have faced illness and death in their families from Covid-19, making routines and structures impossible to maintain.
Dorothy Johnson-Speight, a community organizer in Philadelphia, said she is especially troubled by how many shootings and violent crimes involved young people this summer.
She noted that not only have schools closed, but so have most youth programs that can give young people a sense of structure and belonging. Johnson-Speight, who founded the violence prevention group Mothers in Charge after her son was killed in 2001 over a parking dispute, believes many of the shootings in Philadelphia this year involved people who are under the age of 18, though official police figures are not available. A recent example was a 16-year-old shot dead on September 21, with an 18-year-old and a 12-year-old shot on the same day.
“The anxiety and pain and grief are on steroids because of what’s happening with Covid,” Johnson-Speight said. “People have no way of seeing things getting better, and there is nothing at the end of the tunnel. What I hear from parents that lost one or two or three children is, ‘What’s going to happen next? Will my other children suffer the same thing?’”
While the pandemic brings much uncertainty, there is one thing that may lead to a drop in crime: the weather. Historical trends show that the violent crime rate often increases in the summer, reaches its peak in the fall, and drops to the lowest point in winter — as temperatures decrease and people retreat indoors again.
Crime increased after protests against police violence … briefly
Following the police killing of George Floyd, a 46-year-old Black man, in Minneapolis in May, protests against police violence and systemic racism quickly spread across the country, from major cities to historically conservative, majority-white towns — more so perhaps than any civil rights protests in the nation’s history. However, with the protests came news coverage focused on riots, lootings, and scenes of chaos, despite an estimated 93 percent of protests being peaceful.
President Donald Trump has said little about the police violence against George Floyd, Breonna Taylor, Jacob Blake, and other Black Americans, but has spoken consistently of “law and order.” In July, with Black Lives Matter protests still happening in major cities, Trump sent in federal law enforcement agents to nine cities led by Democratic mayors to stop what the president called “shootings, killings, murders and heinous crimes of violence,” whether or not any of those things were happening in those places.
“This bloodshed must end,” Trump said during official remarks in July. “This bloodshed will end.”
The implication was that the protests had caused the rise in violence, or “bloodshed” — but was that true?
The nationwide protests kicked off in late May, when homicides remained low. There was an increase in mid-June, but the Council on Criminal Justice’s data does not break down where the murders happened in each city, which makes it difficult to analyze protests’ direct impact on violent crime.
What is known is that Black Lives Matter demonstrations have been mostly peaceful. Researchers at the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project analyzed more than 7,750 demonstrations from 2,400 locations between May and August, and found that less than 7 percent of the protest were violent, which the researchers define as where “demonstrators themselves engage in violently disruptive and/or destructive acts targeting other individuals, property, businesses, other rioting groups or armed actors.” This can range from vandalism and looting to clashing with the police, a much wider net than police’s definition of “violent crime,” which include rape and sexual assault, robbery, assault, and murder.
If anything, aggressive and militarized government response has made demonstrations more violent, researchers concluded. For example, before Trump deployed the federal task force to Portland, Oregon, 17 percent of the demonstrations were violent; after federal law enforcement agents entered Portland, the share of violent demonstrations more than doubled, to 42 percent. Criminologists have warned that sending in federal law enforcement officers, like border patrol agents or Bureau of Prisons guards, with no training or knowledge on local issues can do more harm than good.
Another unintended consequence of escalating federal involvement in policing protests is that it hinders people’s trust in the police. Even before this summer, victims of violent crime said some of the most common reasons that stopped them from going to the police were they “dealt with it another way,” “fear of reprisal or getting offender in trouble,” and “police would not or could not help.” An increasing distrust in police may lead to more vigilantism and more unreported crimes.
Also, violent crimes are rare enough that small changes in absolute numbers can lead to large statistical swings, and that’s especially true for the most serious kind of violent crimes like murders.
For example, homicides in 20 cities tracked in Rosenfeld’s report increased by more than 50 percent around the last week of June, which is an alarming trend compared to the past three years. However, looking at the raw numbers, homicides increased from roughly 70 homicides per week to 101 per week, or fewer than one additional death in each city every day. Most of the increase took place in Chicago.
And then there is another historical trend: While the trauma and loss that accompany each murder cannot be measured by numbers, the level of violence in American cities does not come close to the level of violence during the 1990s, where nearly every 30 in 100,000 people were killed. In recent years, it’s been about 10 in 100,000.
In all, criminologists say it’s difficult to draw any conclusions between protests and violent crimes — especially during a time when the US coronavirus death toll surpassed 100,000, the country was experiencing an unprecedented level of unemployment, and coronavirus-related precautions restricted police’s ability to solve crimes.
That said, some more common crimes associated with protests, such as burglary, can perhaps shed more insight on the impact of protests on crime. Commercial burglary — or breaking into a business establishment — is typically associated with what is commonly called looting. Among all types of crimes tracked in the Council on Criminal Justice report, commercial burglary had the most significant spike in the beginning of June, when police violence protests began to spread.
Within one week, the number of commercial burglaries in major US cities jumped from nearly 5,000 to almost 10,000. But the number of incidents dropped just as quickly in the following week, back to below-normal levels.
The evidence suggests that significant looting was confined to the first wave of protests. But there could be another explanation: Active police enforcement — or an emphasis on enforcing specific crimes — can swing crime rates up and down.
Crime trends are affected by police enforcement
Something to know about crime trends: They are shaped by police action and inaction. Crime trends reflect crime reports collected by law enforcement agencies. Crime reports are created when law enforcement responds to calls or uses tactics such as traffic stops or stop-and-frisk.
While the Supreme Court ruled that it’s illegal to stop and frisk someone simply for living in a “high crime area,” research still shows people in predominantly Black and Hispanic neighborhoods are searched a lot more frequently. Even though most people who are stopped are innocent, their interactions with the police can have lasting effects, including feeling discouraged to report a crime to the police themselves.
New York City is a good example of the power of police-initiated actions. When the city began to shut down in April, the number of drug crimes plummeted. Then it began to steadily increase through April and May, as people emerged from lockdown and police officers began patrolling again, getting close to pre-pandemic levels. And when the protests sparked by Floyd’s death spread across the city in late May and early June, the number of drug crimes again dropped overnight.
It’s unlikely that drug crime data represents how the number of people consuming and selling drugs changed over this summer, said Alice Fontier, managing director of the Neighborhood Defender Service of Harlem, a public defender’s office.
What the data shows, Fontier said, is how the New York Police Department deployed its officers throughout the summer. When the pandemic first hit, the department was pulling back on drug searches, partially because many officers were under quarantine. Their practice began to return to normal until protests against police violence broke out, when many of the department’s officers shifted to crowd control instead, Fontier said.
NYPD did not respond to multiple inquiries by The Marshall Project, but during an interview with the Police Executive Research Forum, NYPD Commissioner Dermot Shea said he found the narrative of police pulling back because of protests “offensive.”
New York’s trend in drug crimes is similar to what the data shows in many other cities, including Chicago, Philadelphia, and Memphis.
When a significant number of officers are under quarantine for Covid-19, or when police departments shift resources from making drug busts to responding to protests in riot gear, crime trends change accordingly.
“What we see and experience over time is that the number of drug arrests is directly correlated to the amount of focus and resources the NYPD puts into these cases,” Fontier told The Marshall Project.
Releasing low-risk people from jails and prisons didn’t drive up crime rates
As Covid-19 began to spread across the country in April, jails and prison soon became hot spots for the outbreak. It didn’t come as a surprise. Overcrowding in prison and jails means some facilities have people sleeping on the ground, and in most facilities, even basic Centers for Disease Control and Prevention guidelines such as hand-washing with soap or covering your mouth when you sneeze are virtually impossible to follow.
At the beginning of the pandemic, some jails moved to cut down their populations, releasing people who were incarcerated for pretrial detention or who were almost finished with their misdemeanor sentences. And some prisons, which incarcerate people who are convicted, followed suit.
Public backlash came just as quickly. Some victims of crimes were upset about the early releases, and police departments claimed that coronavirus-related jail releases drove the spike in violent crime.
Data contradicts this narrative. A recent study by the American Civil Liberties Union shows that in 28 major US cities that saw a decrease in jail population between March and May, all but one (Denver) also saw decreases in the most serious type of crimes this summer.
At the beginning of the pandemic, San Francisco District Attorney Chesa Boudin said he heard warnings that releasing people from jail, or arresting fewer people, would lead to more crimes, and that the price of keeping jail inmates safe from Covid-19 is too high.
Yet there was no crime surge. Between March and May, San Francisco’s jail population dropped by more than 40 percent. Its crime rate also dropped sharply compared to the same period in 2019. Both trends, Boudin said, were “unprecedented.”
“If fewer people are incarcerated, then more people will be able to keep steady jobs, safe housing, and get the mental health help they need,” Boudin said. “That all leads to fewer crimes.”
In Denver, the only city that saw an increase in crime and the largest decrease in jail population (by almost 800 people), the trend is short term, and it’s hard to read too much into the numbers, Denver Police Chief Paul Pazen told The Marshall Project.
While virtually all types of crimes have gone down in Denver, Pazen said commercial burglaries drove up the crime rates — as businesses closed during the pandemic, his department saw commercial burglaries more than double this summer. More than 60 percent of the stores were broken into by people who are homeless, Pazen said.
It’s too early to tell if “defund” efforts have impacted crime rates
After the death of George Floyd, “defunding” the police, or moving money from police spending to social services, became central to the police reform conversation.
A few cities have started the defunding process, but it’s too early to affect recent trends. For example, Minneapolis City Council members vowed to disband the police department following Floyd’s death, but their effort is facing major setbacks. In New York City, the nearly $1 billion cut to its police budget took effect on July 1, after murders and shootings were already rising in the city.
How “defund” policies affect crime remains to be seen.
What is clear is the coronavirus is likely to cause the first major drop in police spending in decades, spending that has increased from $220 to $280 per resident from 2000 to 2017, even when violent crime decreased by more than 20 percent during the same time.
Nearly half of 258 police chiefs and sheriffs who responded to a recent survey said they are expecting or already receiving budget cuts in the coming year, according to the Police Executive Research Forum. Most of the cuts range between 5 and 10 percent.
Many police chiefs who responded to the survey warn that unintended consequences may come out of the budget cuts. Hiring freezes, for example, will mean fewer patrols, longer response time, and less proactive actions from the police department. The domino effect, they warn, will eventually lead to a spike in the crime rate.
Richard Auxier, a senior policy associate in the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center, said payroll costs often take up 60 to 70 percent of the police budget, meaning that things like hiring freezes, pay cuts, and layoffs are likely first steps.
But it’s too early to say how those budget cuts will affect crime rates. And even if more policing leads to less crime, activists warn that it carries collateral consequences, such as more arrests and the general harassment of minority communities, that other approaches don’t have. The more important part of the “defund the police” conversation should be about how we should spend the money instead, Auxier said.
For example, a 2018 study shows that one-quarter of people who died in police shootings showed signs of mental illness, and the recent police suffocation of Daniel Prude has reignited talk about how mental health professionals are better suited to handle these interactions than police.
Alternative programs are not new, and they’ve been proven to create a safer community. In Eugene, Oregon, a 30-year-old program has been successful at reducing police interactions with people who are in crisis, dispatching medics and mental health professionals to respond to 911 calls that are not about crime — like mental illness, homelessness, or addiction. In 2019, they responded to 20 percent of all 911 calls in the town, costing a fraction of the price of traditional police interventions. Cities like Olympia, Washington, and Denver have also adopted similar programs.
The way we see crime is politicized and influenced by news sources
So is violent crime out of control? That can depend on whom you ask — and which cable news station they watch.
For example, this summer, Fox News has spent more time covering violent crime than CNN and MSNBC combined, according to an analysis of data compiled by the Stanford Cable TV News Analyzer.
Since the police killing of George Floyd, Fox News has leaned into a narrative of looting and property destruction, filling its segments with headlines like “Portland Plagued by Violent Clashes, Riots” and “Businesses Experience Worst Looting in Decades.”
While CNN and MSNBC’s coverage of violence and crime also spiked after the Floyd protests took off in May, it has dropped significantly since then.
In the 2000s, cable and local TV news became more popular, contributing to a shift in public opinion on crime. Before the early 2000s, more and more people believed there were fewer crimes in the United States, according to Gallup polling data, which matched the truth — that crime rates were decreasing. However, that trend was completely reversed in 2001, and not much has changed since: As crime continues to decrease, more people believe the opposite is true — that crime is up.
Dan Romer, research director of the Annenberg Public Policy Center, said the rise of police television shows, like NCIS and CSI, and how much airtime local TV news gives to violent crime has fed the discrepancy.
Romer, who studies media and its social impact, said producers at local TV news stations face daily pressure to fill the evening report with different beats, like sports, local government, news, and crime — and the idea is to capture viewers’ attention.
“No matter what is going on, there’s going to be a crime in the news region of the news station,” Romer said. “It can be hit-and-run, it can be shooting — the crime news hole stays consistent over time. Stations get that’s an attention-getter. The crime rates could be changing dramatically, but they wouldn’t know it.”
Bias in reporting and story selection can also plague how crime is portrayed in local TV news, Romer said. For example, there has historically been emphasis on stories where the suspect is Black and the victim is white, even though Black men are more likely to be victims of violent crimes. This sways public opinion, too.
“People talked about media literacy and teaching it to children,” Romer said. “People need to know even though they see a lot of violence on local news or hero movies, it’s not necessarily what the world is like.”
This extends to how politicians paint America. Americans disagree on a lot of things, but a recent poll by Monmouth University shows that Republicans, Democrats, and independent voters all agree that maintaining law and order is a major problem in the country right now. What they disagree about is the root cause of the problem, let alone who is best positioned to solve the problem.
For example, while 24 percent of people believe the actions of protesters are fully justified, just as many people believe they are not justified at all. The split on whether Trump or Biden can solve the problem is similarly even. The disagreements often fall along party lines, which may also be influenced by where people get their news.
Abrams says the news — as well as politicians — won’t give you the full story when it comes to crime, though. Parsing data is more than just reporting the numbers.
“If there is a bad weekend with a lot of shootings, people want to know what happened, and rightfully so,” Abrams said. “But to really understand how crime has changed, let’s look at the week, the month, the year, the decade. Crime has gone way, way down from the peaks in the ’80s and ’90s. Even the highest spikes in a few cities over the summer are small blips in comparison.”
Earlier this week, the Commission on Presidential Debates announced six topics moderator Chris Wallace has selected for the first debate on September 29, including “Race and Violence in Our Cities.” This framing, that the two are interlinked, is the problematic narrative that Romer warned about. It is also a near guarantee that racial justice protests and the violent crime streak this summer will be focal points of the debate. Understanding the nuance and context of crime rates is crucial for evaluating each candidate’s story of what the unrest and division in this country is really about.
This article was published in partnership with the Marshall Project, a nonprofit news organization covering the US criminal justice system.


vox--2020-09-25--The false link between Amy Coney Barrett and The Handmaid’s Tale, explained

On Friday , multiple news outlets reported that President Trump planned to select Notre Dame law professor and federal appellate judge Amy Coney Barrett to take Ruth Bader Ginsburg ’ s seat on the Supreme Court .
The news threatens to reignite a storm of controversy around Barrett ’ s religion that has been building since 2017 .
Barrett is a devout Catholic .
She has written before about how she believes Catholicism should affect a judge ’ s jurisprudence , and Democrats discussed her views widely when she was nominated to the federal bench in 2017 .
In a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ right , Senator Dianne Feinstein declared that “ the dogma lives loudly within you ” during Barrett ’ s hearing , a phrase some conservatives took to be an attack on Barrett ’ s Catholicism .
Barrett is also part of a small Catholic group known as People of Praise , and that ’ s where her religious affiliations get especially touchy .
Some liberals argue that Barrett ’ s membership in this group , which teaches that husbands are the heads of families and have authority over their wives , signals that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ opinions if placed on the Supreme Court , particularly when it comes to women ’ s reproductive freedom and the rights of the queer community .
Meanwhile , conservatives reply that Barrett is a high-powered federal judge who is also married , so she can ’ t be all that oppressed by her husband , and that liberal critiques of the way Barrett ’ s religion affects her judicial obligations are nothing more than anti-Catholic prejudice at work .
One of the weirder ways this debate has played out since Barrett was first @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is the fight over whether or not People of Praise , the group of which she is a member , is also one of the inspirations for The Handmaid ’ s Tale .
In Margaret Atwood ’ s 1985 dystopian novel ( and its recent TV adaptation ) , fertile women are forced to live as childbearing slaves called handmaids .
The book isn ’ t an established inspiration — but the story has developed legs anyway .
The inaccurate link between the People of Praise and Atwood ’ s story , perpetuated @ @ @ @ @ @ @ uneven fact-checking , first emerged in a Newsweek article and was later picked up by Reuters .
Both articles have since been corrected , but the right was furious at both .
The Washington Examiner called it a “ smear that just won ’ t die.
” Fox News is keeping a running list of every outlet that has mentioned Barrett and The Handmaid ’ s Tale in the same story .
To be absolutely clear : People of Praise is not an inspiration for The Handmaid ’ s Tale , and the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ any of the other dystopian practices Atwood wrote about in her novel .
But the argument over whether or not the two are connected reflects the deeply contentious atmosphere in which Barrett ’ s nomination to the Supreme Court will occur — and the immense symbolic weight The Handmaid ’ s Tale carries in American popular culture .
The Handmaid ’ s Tale is actually inspired by People of Hope .
They ’ re different from People of Praise .
Two coincidences led to the idea that there is a People of Praise–Handmaid @ @ @ @ @ @ @ coincidence is that the People of Praise once had a religious rank called “ handmaid.
” As reported by the New York Times in 2017 , People of Praise members are all accountable to a personal adviser .
Those advisers offer guidance on major life decisions , including , per the Times , “ whom to date or marry , where to live , whether to take a job or buy a home , and how to raise children.
” And these advisers used to be called “ heads ” when they were @ @ @ @ @ @ @ were women .
They have since been renamed “ leaders.
” The second coincidence is that when Margaret Atwood explained her Handmaid ’ s Tale inspirations to the New York Times in 1987 , she described one of them as “ a Catholic charismatic spinoff sect , which calls the women handmaids.
” Atwood did not at the time name the sect , so when her quote resurfaced in 2020 , it was very easy for some readers to think , Well , People of Praise is a Catholic charismatic spinoff sect that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ you go .
Accordingly , on September 21 , Newsweek reported that People of Praise was one of Atwood ’ s inspirations for The Handmaid ’ s Tale .
Asked about her inspiration for The Handmaid ’ s Tale by Politico as the controversy heated up , Atwood said she wasn ’ t sure which group she was talking about in 1987 .
Her archive of work and research is at the University of Toronto , where she can ’ t currently access it due to Covid-19 restrictions .
But she ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Handmaid ’ s Tale archives for journalists plenty of times in the past , and during those interviews , she ’ s always cited People of Hope , a different Catholic charismatic spinoff that calls women handmaids .
Specifically , People of Hope is a fundamentalist group in New Jersey that some former members have said behaves like a cult and which has allegedly arranged marriages between teenagers .
The People of Hope call wives “ handmaids , ” and when Atwood saw that word in an Associated Press clipping about the group @ @ @ @ @ @ @ It ’ s rumored that it ’ s here that she developed the idea of using the name to begin with .
In a weird wrinkle , the timing of the lore here doesn ’ t quite work out .
Reporting for the Star-Ledger in 2017 , Tom Deignan found that the story didn ’ t hit the AP until after The Handmaid ’ s Tale came out in 1985 , meaning that Atwood couldn ’ t have pulled the word “ handmaid ” from that mythical news article after all .
But @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s archives , the one that she always shows reporters , is about People of Hope .
And while it ’ s plenty plausible that Atwood has indulged in a little self-mythologizing about her creative process over the years , it ’ s not really that relevant to any questions about Amy Coney Barrett and her religious leanings today .
The outrage over the controversy speaks to the symbolic weight Handmaid ’ s Tale holds today in American pop culture The slippage between People of Praise handmaids , People of Hope handmaids @ @ @ @ @ @ @ this whole misunderstanding originated .
And it is in its own way telling about the world Atwood was writing about in 1984 when she built Gilead , her theocratic dystopia .
Atwood was drawing from the cultural norms of lots of different North American charismatic Christian groups at the time , including harmless ones .
The reason there ’ s so much confusion about exactly where she took the word handmaid from is that handmaid is the kind of word a lot of North American charismatic Christian groups were into in 1984 : @ @ @ @ @ @ @ feminine obedience to divine will .
Again , that does not mean these groups were practicing sexual slavery .
It means they were working with a very specific vocabulary , and the way Atwood made her dystopia feel real was by skillfully mimicking them .
But that this slippage occurred in 2020 is also telling about how immensely fearful people are , on both the right and the left , about America ’ s future — and how powerful The Handmaid ’ s Tale is as a symbol of what that future might @ @ @ @ @ @ @ look at Amy Coney Barrett and see someone who has denounced both abortion and marriage equality in explicitly religious terms , someone who they fear will , if placed on the Supreme Court , turn back the clock on both those issues .
They see a symbol of the same fear that drove protesters to don Handmaid robes at the Kavanaugh hearings in 2018 : the fear that women are going to lose control of their bodies , and that when that day comes , we might as well just be in Gilead @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The Handmaid ’ s Tale because The Handmaid ’ s Tale is now our culture ’ s most potent symbol for the idea of a world in which women ’ s bodies are not their own .
People on the religious right , meanwhile , see the left ’ s focus on Barrett ’ s Catholicism as confirmation that American Christianity is losing its cultural power , and that they may soon become a persecuted minority .
Articles that mistakenly link Barrett ’ s People of Praise to The Handmaid ’ s Tale @ @ @ @ @ @ @ examples of the left trying to make Barrett ’ s religion a disqualifying mark against her , and by extension to make all Christian faith disqualifying for higher office .
The result is a controversy about two political parties that increasingly see themselves as pushed to the breaking point — and who believe they have no space left to interact with the other side in good faith .

On Monday, Amy Coney Barrett, Donald Trump’s nominee to take Ruth Bader Ginsburg’s seat on the Supreme Court, was officially confirmed and sworn in. Barrett’s controversial confirmation was the final chapter of the spectacle surrounding her rapid nomination and confirmation, especially so close to a presidential election. And it only further served to reignite the extremely polarized conversation around Barrett’s religion that has been building since 2017.
Barrett is a devout Catholic. She has written before about her belief that Catholicism should affect a judge’s jurisprudence, and Democrats discussed her views widely when she was nominated to the federal bench in 2017. In a moment that has become infamous on the right, Sen. Dianne Feinstein declared that “the dogma lives loudly within you” during Barrett’s hearing, a phrase some conservatives took to be an attack on Barrett’s Catholicism.
Barrett is also part of a small Catholic group known as People of Praise, and that’s where her religious affiliations get especially touchy. Some liberals argue Barrett’s membership in this group, which teaches that husbands are the heads of families and have authority over their wives, signals that she will hand down religiously motivated conservative opinions as a Supreme Court justice, particularly when it comes to women’s reproductive freedom and the rights of the queer community.
Meanwhile, conservatives reply that Barrett is a high-powered judge who is also married, so she can’t be all that oppressed by her husband, and that liberal critiques of the way Barrett’s religion affects her judicial obligations are nothing more than anti-Catholic prejudice at work.
One of the weirder ways this debate has played out since Barrett was first discussed as a potential Supreme Court nominee is the fight over whether or not People of Praise, the group she belongs to, is also one of the inspirations for The Handmaid’s Tale. In Margaret Atwood’s 1985 dystopian novel (and its recent TV adaptation), fertile women are forced to live as childbearing slaves called handmaids. The group isn’t an established inspiration for the book — but the story has developed legs anyway.
The inaccurate link between the People of Praise and Atwood’s story, perpetuated by a series of confusing coincidences and uneven fact-checking, first emerged in a Newsweek article and was later picked up by Reuters. Both articles have since been corrected, but the right was furious at both. The Washington Examiner called it a “smear that just won’t die.” Fox News noted several other outlets have mentioned Barrett and The Handmaid’s Tale in the same story.
To be absolutely clear: People of Praise is not an inspiration for The Handmaid’s Tale, and the group does not practice sexual slavery or any of the other dystopian practices Atwood wrote about in her novel. But the argument over whether or not the two are connected reflects the deeply contentious atmosphere in which Barrett’s confirmation to the Supreme Court occurred — and the immense symbolic weight The Handmaid’s Tale carries in American popular culture.
The Handmaid’s Tale is actually inspired by People of Hope. They’re different from People of Praise.
Two coincidences led to the idea of a People of Praise–Handmaid’s Tale connection. The first coincidence is that the People of Praise once had a religious rank called “handmaid.” As reported by the New York Times in 2017, People of Praise members are all accountable to a personal adviser. Those advisers offer guidance on major life decisions, including, per the Times, “whom to date or marry, where to live, whether to take a job or buy a home, and how to raise children.” And these advisers used to be called “heads” when they were men and “handmaids” when they were women. They have since been renamed “leaders.”
The second coincidence is that when Margaret Atwood explained her Handmaid’s Tale inspirations to the New York Times in 1987, she described one of them as “a Catholic charismatic spinoff sect, which calls the women handmaids.” Atwood did not at the time name the sect, so when her quote resurfaced in 2020, it was very easy for some readers to think, Well, People of Praise is a Catholic charismatic spinoff sect that calls the women handmaids, so there you go. Accordingly, on September 21, Newsweek reported that People of Praise was one of Atwood’s inspirations for The Handmaid’s Tale.
Asked about her inspiration for The Handmaid’s Tale by Politico as the controversy heated up, Atwood said she wasn’t sure which group she was talking about in 1987. Her archive of work and research is at the University of Toronto, where she can’t currently access it due to Covid-19 restrictions. But she’s on the record as going through her Handmaid’s Tale archives for journalists plenty of times in the past, and during those interviews, she’s always cited People of Hope, a different Catholic charismatic spinoff that calls women handmaids.
Specifically, People of Hope is a fundamentalist group in New Jersey that some former members have said behaves like a cult and which has allegedly arranged marriages between teenagers. The People of Hope call wives “handmaids,” and when Atwood saw that word in an Associated Press clipping about the group, she underlined it in pen. It’s rumored that it’s here that she developed the idea of using the name to begin with.
In a weird wrinkle, the timing of the lore here doesn’t quite work out. Reporting for the Star-Ledger in 2017, Tom Deignan found that the story didn’t hit the AP until after The Handmaid’s Tale came out in 1985, meaning that Atwood couldn’t have pulled the word “handmaid” from that mythical news article after all. But regardless, the AP clipping in Atwood’s archives, the one that she always shows reporters, is about People of Hope. And while it’s plenty plausible that Atwood has indulged in a little self-mythologizing about her creative process over the years, it’s not really that relevant to any questions about Amy Coney Barrett and her religious leanings today.
The outrage over the controversy speaks to the symbolic weight Handmaid’s Tale holds today in American pop culture
The slippage between People of Praise handmaids, People of Hope handmaids, and Margaret Atwood handmaids is where this whole misunderstanding originated. And it is, in its own way, telling about the world Atwood was writing about in 1984 when she built Gilead, her theocratic dystopia.
Atwood was drawing from the cultural norms of lots of different North American charismatic Christian groups at the time, including harmless ones. The reason there’s so much confusion about exactly where she took the word handmaid from is that handmaid is the kind of word a lot of North American charismatic Christian groups were into in 1984: suggestive of purity, duty, and feminine obedience to divine will.
Again, that does not mean these groups were practicing sexual slavery. It means they were working with a very specific vocabulary, and the way Atwood made her dystopia feel real was by skillfully mimicking them.
But that this slippage occurred in 2020 is also telling about how immensely fearful people are, on both the right and the left, about America’s future — and how powerful The Handmaid’s Tale is as a symbol of what that future might look like.
People on the left look at Amy Coney Barrett and see someone who has denounced both abortion and marriage equality in explicitly religious terms, someone who they fear will, now that she is seated on the Supreme Court, turn back the clock on both those issues. They see a symbol of the same fear that drove protesters to don Handmaid robes at the Kavanaugh hearings in 2018: the fear that women are going to lose control of their bodies, and that when that day comes, we might just as well be in Gilead. So they have linked Barrett to The Handmaid’s Tale because The Handmaid’s Tale is now our culture’s most potent symbol for the idea of a world in which women’s bodies are not their own.
Related What Amy Coney Barrett on the Supreme Court means for abortion rights
People on the religious right, meanwhile, see the left’s focus on Barrett’s Catholicism as confirmation that American Christianity is losing its cultural power, and that they may soon become a persecuted minority. Articles that mistakenly link Barrett’s People of Praise to The Handmaid’s Tale, viewed through this lens, become examples of the left trying to make Barrett’s religion a disqualifying mark against her, and by extension to make all Christian faith disqualifying for higher office.
The result is a controversy about two political parties that increasingly see themselves as pushed to the breaking point — and who believe they have no space left to interact with the other side in good faith.


vox--2020-09-25--How the 2020 census is trying to overcome Covid-19, digital divides, and Trump to get an accurate co

How the 2020 census is trying to overcome Covid-19, digital divides, and Trump to get an accurate count

Share All sharing options for : How the 2020 census is trying to overcome Covid-19 , digital divides , and Trump to get an accurate count 2020 has been a strange and unpredictable year for so many things , and the US census is no exception .
Some of its challenges were anticipated : It ’ s America ’ s first digital census , so even though some people have the option to respond offline , the majority of its responses are meant to be handled online .
The census has also been dealing with funding cuts and the Trump @ @ @ @ @ @ @ undocumented immigrants from its count .
But the pandemic added a whole new set of problems to the mix , resulting in what some experts fear will be the least accurate census in modern history .
Since the census determines how many representatives states get in Congress and how federal funding is distributed , undercounted communities will be deprived of resources and representation .
You can help avoid this by responding now if you haven ’ t already .
There is still time to respond to the 2020 census , thanks to a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to October 31 .
In a normal year , self-response and door-to-door census-taking would have been done by July 31 .
When the pandemic pushed everything back , the Census Bureau set a new deadline of October 31 .
Then in August , under pressure from the Trump administration , the Bureau suddenly announced that it would wrap up those operations by September 30 .
Several organizations and some municipalities sued the Census Bureau and the Department of Commerce , which oversees the Bureau .
They were able to get a preliminary injunction @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 31 .
The Trump administration is planning to appeal that decision , however , so there ’ s still a chance the deadline will go back to September 30 .
Respond now to ensure that you ’ ll be counted no matter what the outcome .
Why you should respond “ The census is the largest , most complex activity this nation conducts short of mobilizing for war , ” Terri Ann Lowenthal , former staff director of the House census oversight subcommittee and census consultant , told Recode .
“ The census @ @ @ @ @ @ @ this nation conducts short of mobilizing for war ” The census count affects everything from how many seats in the House of Representatives a state gets to how trillions of dollars in federal funds are distributed to communities across the country for the next 10 years .
That money goes to things like Medicaid , roads , education , assistance for lower-income families , and environmental programs .
Your life will be affected , one way or another , by the census results .
It happens once every 10 years , it ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ you are legally required to respond to it .
But not everyone does : In previous recent censuses , roughly two-thirds of the population self-responded , and that ’ s about how many have self-responded this year so far .
But this national number can be a bit misleading , as self-response rates vary across the country .
The rest of the count comes from census takers who go to the homes of nonrespondents , and then from other methods the census uses to impute whoever is still missing .
But the self-response @ @ @ @ @ @ @ accurate answer , so the more of those the census gets , the better .
This is especially true for so-called “ hard to count ” areas , where people are more likely to be undercounted or missed .
Those tend to be certain minorities , people with lower incomes , people who live in rural or remote communities , and young children .
The Census Bureau gives four main reasons why some groups are hard to count : hard to locate , hard to contact , hard to persuade , and hard @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Census Bureau promoted an online option that makes it easier than ever for most people to respond .
Unless you live in certain remote or rural communities that don ’ t have physical addresses for mail service , you should have received a notice in the mail with your census ID , which you can use to log into the online questionnaire .
If you don ’ t have your census ID , just click this link to answer a few additional questions about your address and you ’ ll be able to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ don ’ t have an address , that ’ s okay , too : You can and should still answer with as much information about your location as possible .
If you don ’ t have easy access to the internet or would rather respond offline , you can call ( 844 ) 330-2020 if you speak English and live in the 50 states or Washington , DC .
If you need to answer in another language or if you live in Puerto Rico , check this for a list of phone numbers @ @ @ @ @ @ @ situation .
A third option is in the mail .
If you didn ’ t respond to the initial invitation mailed to you in March , you should have received a paper questionnaire to mail back instead .
What happens if you don ’ t respond If you don ’ t self-respond , you ’ re leaving it up to someone else to ensure that you ’ ll be counted accurately — or at all .
Census takers , or enumerators , will try to visit every household that doesn ’ t self-respond @ @ @ @ @ @ @ begin in May .
The pandemic pushed things back significantly , so census takers began their work in most places in mid-August .
If census takers are unable to reach you through their door-to-door efforts , they might rely on proxies — asking your neighbor or landlord to supply the information instead , for instance — or they will just mark your home as vacant .
The more work enumerators have to do and the less time they have to do it , the less accurate the census count will likely be .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ so more time for self-response is a good thing , ” Steven Romalewski , director of the mapping service at the Center for Urban Research at City University of New York Graduate Center and creator of the “ Hard to Count ” map , told Recode .
Romalewski said the recent ruling extending the deadline “ also means the Bureau will stick to its Covid-19 timeframe for nonresponse follow-up , meaning the door-knocking enumeration won ’ t be rushed , and census takers will have the time they had planned on to be @ @ @ @ @ @ @ hardest-to-count communities.
” After October 31 , the Bureau will switch to other means to complete the count , like using existing administrative records from other agencies , such as the Social Security Administration and state departments of motor vehicles .
These are considered to be the least accurate method of counting , and the most likely to miss typically undercounted populations .
Why 2020 ’ s census could be one of the least accurate ever Between budget cuts , politics , and the pandemic , the 2020 census — an already complex @ @ @ @ @ @ @ difficult to pull off .
Experts have been warning for years that the 2020 census is underfunded to the point that it could affect its accuracy .
This underfunding predates Trump ’ s presidency , but Trump hasn ’ t helped matters .
“ We ’ ve never had a pandemic like this ; we ’ ve never had a political climate this bad , ” Romalewski said .
“ In some ways , it ’ s impressive that we ’ ve even gotten to this level .
But we know that in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ rate , there were still problems with the accuracy , the count , as far as certain population groups go .
So despite the challenges , we still need to do better.
” Trump was determined to add a citizenship question to the 2020 census , the justification for which remained elusive — which was why the Supreme Court struck it down .
But Trump ’ s push for it still discouraged many undocumented immigrants from responding .
Their undocumented status could also mean they don ’ t show up in the administrative @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in the numbers of people who weren ’ t counted by enumerators or self-responses .
“ It really did enormous damage to the trust that people need to have in the Census Bureau in order to participate , ” Romalewski said .
The Trump administration is now trying to exclude undocumented immigrants from the census , recently ordering that their numbers not be included when determining congressional apportionments .
The final decision on this will likely be determined by the Supreme Court in the coming months .
The pandemic has added several new @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Planned in-person events to spread awareness or take census counts — which often focus on hard-to-count areas — have been canceled or replaced with virtual outreach efforts .
But those won ’ t do much for areas with limited or no internet access , which tend to be undercounted in the first place .
Even some of the questionnaire distributions have had to be delayed .
Typically , homes that don ’ t have regular mail delivery — remote or rural communities , including Native American reservations — get their census forms through @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , which therefore delayed their responses .
People also may be less inclined to open their door and talk to a stranger when census takers come to their homes for nonresponse followups .
The Census Bureau has had trouble hiring and retaining census takers due , in part , to their reluctance to be exposed to multitudes of people in the middle of a pandemic ( the bureau was already having trouble getting enough workers before the pandemic hit ) .
The new timing of in-person operations is also not ideal , Lowenthal @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and early fall puts it in the middle of wildfire and hurricane season — two things that make it difficult to conduct in-person counts in affected locations .
And the length of time that has elapsed between the census date of April 1 and the beginning of the in-person counts , as well as the significantly increased movement of people around the country because of the pandemic , may also cause accuracy issues .
“ Once the population started to churn because of the pandemic , the Census Bureau faced an unprecedented challenge @ @ @ @ @ @ @ moved from where they could have been residing months ago , ” Lowenthal said .
The Census Bureau had planned to compensate for these delays by shifting from December 31 , 2020 , to April 30 , 2021 , as the date when the president would receive the final results with the apportionment counts .
This would both give people enough time to respond and the Census Bureau ample time to process the data it collected .
The Trump administration initially agreed with this , asking Congress to extend the deadline accordingly .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ to act , despite the House passing a bill that included an extension and bipartisan support in the Senate .
Then , the Trump administration changed course on that April 2021 deadline .
In early August , the Census Bureau announced that it was concluding self-response and field operations a month early in order to have three months to process all the data and meet a December 31 deadline to give the results to the president .
Secretary of Commerce Wilbur Ross said that the Bureau would be able to deliver its complete @ @ @ @ @ @ @ But many others disagree .
Internal Census Bureau emails show its employees have serious concerns that the new deadlines can be met , and the Office of the Inspector General for the Department of Commerce said in a recent report that the accelerated timeline will likely increase the risk of an inaccurate and incomplete count .
A report from the American Statistical Association estimated that cutting the response deadline short by a month would mean significantly fewer households will be counted in some states .
That , in turn , could mean that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the lowest self-response rates are more likely to be inaccurately counted again .
The recent decision from Northern California District Court Judge Lucy Koh extends the response deadline back to October 31 and suspends the December 31 deadline to give the results to the president , which should give the Bureau the time it needs to process the data .
That ’ s assuming , of course , that Koh ’ s decision stands on an appeal .
In the meantime , the count continues .
“ The Census Bureau continues to focus @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and will comply with court orders , ” the Bureau told Recode .
There is one bright spot here : the online self-response system .
Leading up to the census , there were concerns that too much traffic at once could cause the site to crash or that it might fall victim to a cybersecurity attack .
That doesn ’ t appear to have happened .
“ The majority of people responding to the 2020 census on their own have done so online , the online response has not experienced a single moment @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , ” the Census Bureau said .
So , why don ’ t you go ahead and fill yours out now .
Help keep Vox free for all Millions turn to Vox each month to understand what ’ s happening in the news , from the coronavirus crisis to a racial reckoning to what is , quite possibly , the most consequential presidential election of our lifetimes .
Our mission has never been more vital than it is in this moment : to empower you through understanding .
But our distinctive brand of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the economy and the news advertising market recovers , your support will be a critical part of sustaining our resource-intensive work .
If you have already contributed , thank you .
If you haven ’ t , please consider helping everyone make sense of an increasingly chaotic world : Contribute today from as little as $ 3 .

The court battle over when the census response period can end is effectively over, with a Supreme Court decision allowing the Trump administration to end it whenever it so chooses — and it has chosen October 15. Door-to-door field operations will end that day, while the internet self-response option will be open until October 16, 5:59 am ET (that’s to give Hawaiians a deadline of 11:59 pm, October 15).
2020 has been a strange and unpredictable year for so many things, and the US census is no exception.
Some of its challenges were anticipated: It’s America’s first digital census, with the majority of self-responses expected to come through the online option. The census has also been dealing with funding cuts and the Trump administration’s continued attempts to exclude undocumented immigrants from its count. But the pandemic added a whole new set of problems to the mix, resulting in what some experts fear will be the least accurate census in modern history.
Since the census determines how many representatives states get in Congress and how federal funding is distributed, undercounted communities will be deprived of resources and representation. You can help avoid this by responding now if you haven’t already.
In a normal year, self-response and door-to-door census-taking would have been done by July 31. When the pandemic pushed everything back, the Census Bureau set a new response deadline of October 31 and a deadline to process the data and give the results to the president of April 30, 2021. Everyone, including President Trump, seemed to agree this was necessary. Then, in August, the Trump administration abruptly changed course, and the Bureau announced a new response deadline of September 30 in order to have the apportionment counts by December 31. Several organizations and some municipalities sued the Census Bureau and the Department of Commerce, which oversees the Bureau, to keep the October and April deadlines. The case worked its way up the judicial system food chain until the Supreme Court denied a stay to keep the deadline at October 31. It remains to be seen whether the apportionment count deadline will be extended.
Why you should respond
“The census is the largest, most complex activity this nation conducts short of mobilizing for war,” Terri Ann Lowenthal, former staff director of the House census oversight subcommittee and census consultant, told Recode.
“The census is the largest, most complex activity this nation conducts short of mobilizing for war”
The census count affects everything from how many seats in the House of Representatives a state gets to how trillions of dollars in federal funds are distributed to communities across the country for the next 10 years. That money goes to things like Medicaid, roads, education, assistance for lower-income families, and environmental programs. Your life will be affected, one way or another, by the census results.
It happens once every 10 years, it’s mandated in the Constitution, and you are legally required to respond to it. But not everyone does: In previous recent censuses, roughly two-thirds of the population self-responded, and that’s about how many have self-responded this year so far. But this national number can be a bit misleading, as self-response rates vary across the country.
The rest of the count comes from census takers who go to the homes of nonrespondents, and then from other methods the census uses to impute whoever is still missing. But the self-response is generally considered to be the most accurate answer, so the more of those the census gets, the better. This is especially true for so-called “hard to count” areas, where people are more likely to be undercounted or missed. Those tend to be certain minorities, people with lower incomes, people who live in rural or remote communities, and young children. The Census Bureau gives four main reasons why some groups are hard to count: hard to locate, hard to contact, hard to persuade, and hard to interview.
How to respond
For 2020, the Census Bureau promoted an online option that makes it easier than ever for most people to respond. Unless you live in certain remote or rural communities that don’t have physical addresses for mail service, you should have received a notice in the mail with your census ID, which you can use to log into the online questionnaire. If you don’t have your census ID, just click this link to answer a few additional questions about your address and you’ll be able to fill out the questionnaire. If you don’t have an address, that’s okay, too: You can and should still answer with as much information about your location as possible.
If you don’t have easy access to the internet or would rather respond offline, you can call (844) 330-2020 if you speak English and live in the 50 states or Washington, DC. If you need to answer in another language or if you live in Puerto Rico, check this for a list of phone numbers for the one that applies to your situation.
A third option is in the mail. If you didn’t respond to the initial invitation mailed to you in March, you should have received a paper questionnaire to mail back instead.
What happens if you don’t respond
If you don’t self-respond, you’re leaving it up to someone else to ensure that you’ll be counted accurately — or at all. Census takers, or enumerators, will try to visit every household that doesn’t self-respond, a process that was supposed to begin in May. The pandemic pushed things back significantly, so census takers began their work in most places in mid-August. If census takers are unable to reach you through their door-to-door efforts, they might rely on proxies — asking your neighbor or landlord to supply the information instead, for instance — or they will just mark your home as vacant. The more work enumerators have to do and the less time they have to do it, the less accurate the census count will likely be.
“More self-response means better data, so more time for self-response is a good thing,” Steven Romalewski, director of the mapping service at the Center for Urban Research at City University of New York Graduate Center and creator of the “Hard to Count” map, told Recode. Romalewski said the recent ruling extending the deadline “also means the Bureau will stick to its Covid-19 timeframe for nonresponse follow-up, meaning the door-knocking enumeration won’t be rushed, and census takers will have the time they had planned on to be more thorough in reaching people in the hardest-to-count communities.”
After the self-response and door-to-door enumeration deadline passes (whenever that is), the Bureau will switch to other means to complete the count, like using existing administrative records from other agencies, such as the Social Security Administration and state departments of motor vehicles. These are considered to be the least accurate method of counting, and the most likely to miss typically undercounted populations.
Why 2020’s census could be one of the least accurate ever
Between budget cuts, politics, and the pandemic, the 2020 census — an already complex and massive undertaking — has been more difficult to pull off. Experts have been warning for years that the 2020 census is underfunded to the point that it could affect its accuracy. This underfunding predates Trump’s presidency, but Trump hasn’t helped matters.
“We’ve never had a pandemic like this; we’ve never had a political climate this bad,” Romalewski said. “In some ways, it’s impressive that we’ve even gotten to this level. But we know that in 2010, even with a higher self-response rate, there were still problems with the accuracy, the count, as far as certain population groups go. So despite the challenges, we still need to do better.”
Trump was determined to add a citizenship question to the 2020 census, the justification for which remained elusive — which was why the Supreme Court struck it down. But Trump’s push for it still discouraged many undocumented immigrants from responding. Their undocumented status could also mean they don’t show up in the administrative records the Bureau will use to fill in the numbers of people who weren’t counted by enumerators or self-responses.
“It really did enormous damage to the trust that people need to have in the Census Bureau in order to participate,” Romalewski said.
The Trump administration is now trying to exclude undocumented immigrants from the census, recently ordering that their numbers not be included when determining congressional apportionments. The final decision on this will likely be determined by the Supreme Court in the coming months.
The pandemic has added several new wrinkles to the already troubled process. Planned in-person events to spread awareness or take census counts — which often focus on hard-to-count areas — have been canceled or replaced with virtual outreach efforts. But those won’t do much for areas with limited or no internet access, which tend to be undercounted in the first place.
Even some of the questionnaire distributions have had to be delayed. Typically, homes that don’t have regular mail delivery — remote or rural communities, including Native American reservations — get their census forms through hand delivery. The pandemic delayed these, which therefore delayed their responses.
People also may be less inclined to open their door and talk to a stranger when census takers come to their homes for nonresponse followups. The Census Bureau has had trouble hiring and retaining census takers due, in part, to their reluctance to be exposed to multitudes of people in the middle of a pandemic (the bureau was already having trouble getting enough workers before the pandemic hit).
The new timing of in-person operations is also not ideal, Lowenthal told Recode. Coming in late summer and early fall puts it in the middle of wildfire and hurricane season — two things that make it difficult to conduct in-person counts in affected locations. And the length of time that has elapsed between the census date of April 1 and the beginning of the in-person counts, as well as the significantly increased movement of people around the country because of the pandemic, may also cause accuracy issues.
“Once the population started to churn because of the pandemic, the Census Bureau faced an unprecedented challenge of trying to count people who have moved from where they could have been residing months ago,” Lowenthal said.
The Census Bureau had planned to compensate for these delays by shifting the deadline for the results from December 31, 2020, to April 30, 2021. But the Senate has so far failed to act to extend the deadline, despite the House passing a bill that included an extension and bipartisan support in the Senate.
While Secretary Ross has said he believes it is possible to have a complete and accurate count by December 31, many experts disagree. Internal Census Bureau emails show its employees have serious concerns, and the Office of the Inspector General for the Department of Commerce said in a recent report that the accelerated timeline will likely increase the risk of errors. A report from the American Statistical Association estimated that cutting the response deadline short would mean significantly fewer households will be counted in some states. In other words, the communities that already tend to have the lowest self-response rates are more likely to be inaccurately counted again.
There is one bright spot here: the online self-response system. Leading up to the census, there were concerns that too much traffic at once could cause the site to crash or that it might fall victim to a cybersecurity attack. That doesn’t appear to have happened.
“The majority of people responding to the 2020 census on their own have done so online, the online response has not experienced a single moment of downtime since it opened in March,” the Census Bureau told Recode.
So, why don’t you go ahead and fill yours out now.