vox--2020-03-24--6 reasons to be skeptical of Trump’s calls to reopen the economy

President Donald Trump is getting impatient with the coronavirus .
At his daily briefing on Monday , Trump started talking about getting Americans back to work — eight days into his “ 15-day ” challenge to get the public to social distance .
“ This is not a country that was built for this .
It was not built to be shut down , ” Trump said .
“ America will , again , and soon , be open for business .
Very soon .
A lot sooner than three or four months that somebody was suggesting .
Lot sooner @ @ @ @ @ @ @ be worse than the problem itself.
” Trump ’ s daily press conferences have shifted in tone almost daily : Early on , he seemed skeptical of the severity of the situation , then he pivoted to calling himself a “ wartime president , ” and now he seems antsy to return to normalcy — so much so he ’ s dismissing his own health advisers ’ advice and talking longingly about treatments as if they were ready for mainstream use .
In just one briefing , Trump gave at least six reasons @ @ @ @ @ @ @ news wary of his judgment .
Trump is beginning to agitate for a return to normalcy , first tweeting the idea Sunday that workers should get back to work next week and then retweeting the idea Monday .
When asked during the press conference about whether he ’ s listening to his health advisers on whether that ’ s the best course , he responded : “ If it were up to the doctors , they ’ d say let ’ s shut down the entire world because again you ’ re up @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
“ And when we shut it down that would be wonderful and let ’ s keep it shut for a couple of years .
You can ’ t do that to a country , especially the No .
1 economy in the world by far.
” No doctor has gone this far .
It ’ s a strawman argument to support Trump ’ s rejection of health experts ’ recommendations as over the top .
However , many experts have said that to effectively “ flatten the curve ” of daily new @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to over a year .
That ’ s how long it could take to develop and distribute a vaccine or establish herd immunity without severely overwhelming health systems .
Deborah Birx , the response coordinator for the White House Coronavirus Task Force , did not rule out a three- to four-month shutdown in certain parts of the country .
She said that the pandemic has progressed much more quickly in Washington state , which is about two weeks ahead of New York state in terms of the increase in the rate of new @ @ @ @ @ @ @ concerned about the economy Trump is preoccupied by the economic impact of coronavirus — which , to be fair , has already been catastrophic .
The stock market has had the fastest 30 percent sell-off ever and industries from airlines to restaurants are pleading for bailouts .
It could plunge the US into a depression and leave many workers unemployed .
Trump has promised publicly that the stock market will bounce back once the crisis passed , but privately , he has reportedly expressed anger that warnings from Centers for Disease Control and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ He has tried to tie his hopes for the economy to his 2020 reelection prospects .
As my colleague Aaron Rupar writes : Officials will have to reckon with the tradeoffs of reopening the economy and slowing the spread of the virus through social distancing at some point .
But most public health experts say that it ’ s simply premature to talk about returning to normalcy in a few weeks .
Trump continues to tout hydroxychloroquine , a common anti-malaria drug , coupled with the antibiotic azithromycin , also known as “ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for the virus despite the fact that it hasn ’ t been tested and could have adverse side effects .
“ At my direction , the federal government is working to help obtain large quantities of chloroquine , ” he said .
“ We think tomorrow , pretty early , the hydroxychloroquine and the Z-Pak I think is a combination is looking very , very good and it ’ s going to be distributed.
” Anthony Fauci , the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases at the National Institutes @ @ @ @ @ @ @ he has no data to rely on that the drug is safe for people who ’ ve tested positive for coronavirus , nor any data that proves it is effective .
Meanwhile , Americans appear to be listening to Trump .
BuzzFeed reports that a man died after self-medicating with a fish tank treatment related to the drug .
Other reports suggest there ’ s a run on the drug itself , with some even crossing the border to buy it from Mexican pharmacies , making it harder for people who need it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ thinks coronavirus is like the flu or car accidents For weeks , Trump has tried to claim that the coronavirus is like the flu , and he returned to that on Monday : “ We have a very bad flu season , on top of everything else , ” he said .
“ It ’ s very bad .
It looks like it could be over 50,000 [ deaths ] .
And certainly , this [ pandemic ] is going to be bad .
And we ’ re trying to make it so @ @ @ @ @ @ @ less bad.
” But coronavirus is far more contagious — and more deadly .
Here ’ s one chart that explains the difference .
Trump also compared the pandemic to car accidents , insinuating that pandemic deaths are equivalent .
“ You look at automobile accidents , which are far greater than any numbers we ’ re talking about , ” he said .
“ That doesn ’ t mean we ’ re going to tell everybody , ‘ No more driving of cars.
’ ” The car accident comparison has come up @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the idea , calling it “ false equivalence.
” Then , at least , Trump seemed to agree with Fauci , saying , “ You could be talking about millions of lives.
” 5 ) Trump thinks he can turn the economy on and off ( he can ’ t ) Trump might want to send workers back to work , but it ’ s really not up to him .
Trump can ’ t unilaterally reopen the economy — that power lies with states and localities , many of which have imposed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ have resulted in the closure of non-essential businesses where people typically congregate , such as bars and restaurants .
In hotspots of infection and areas where the rate of new daily infections hasn ’ t yet peaked , that could mean social distancing could prevail for much longer than just a few weeks .
But Trump can advise states to reopen for business as usual , and at least some of them will likely heed his advice , despite what medical professionals may say .
Lifting the social distancing restrictions prematurely could place @ @ @ @ @ @ @ virus to spread too quickly and overwhelming the resources of the medical system , leading to preventable deaths .
6 ) Trump claims a recession is more deadly than the virus Trump has been claiming for days that the economy would improve after the virus has been controlled .
But on Sunday night , he changed tack , suggesting on Twitter that the economic toll of sending workers home could have a more devastating effect than letting the virus rip through the US population unchecked by social distancing : He reiterated that argument @ @ @ @ @ @ @ claiming that stifling the economy could be deadly in and of itself .
“ We have people with tremendous anxiety and depression , and you have suicides over things like this when you have terrible economies , ” he said .
“ [ Death ] would be in far greater numbers than the numbers we ’ re talking about with regard to the virus.
” The toll that isolation takes on people is real .
So is the toll of unemployment — one reason Congress is considering a relief package .
Studies have @ @ @ @ @ @ @ economic downturns .
But it ’ s not clear what , if anything , backed up Trump ’ s assertion that social distancing would be more deadly .
Research suggests some past recessions lowered overall death rates .
It ’ s true that the suicide rate jumped during the Great Recession from 2008 to 2010 , but not in the kind of numbers that would outpace the projected death toll of coronavirus .
Roughly 10,000 suicides were traced to the recession .
In the worst-case scenarios without social distancing , the coronavirus would @ @ @ @ @ @ @ health experts remains the same : practice good hygiene and social distancing , refrain from traveling , and consult a medical provider if you develop symptoms of Covid-19 , the disease caused by the novel coronavirus .
Scientists estimate this could be our new normal for a year or more .
The virus is primarily spread through droplets from coughing or sneezing .
The CDC consequently recommends that people wash their hands often with soap and water for at least 20 seconds , disinfect frequently touched objects and avoid touching their face , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ eyes , nose and mouth .
People should also avoid face-to-face interactions with people outside of their households .
Many states have already adopted “ shelter in place ” policies that have shut down all but essential businesses .
But this kind of social distancing even extends to small gatherings of friends and going for walks at popular times of day .
If you do develop symptoms , which typically include a fever and coughing , then you should contact a health care provider , who may recommend that you self-monitor at home @ @ @ @ @ @ @ virus ( though there remains a shortage of available testing kits . )

President Donald Trump is getting impatient with the coronavirus.
At his daily briefing on Monday, Trump started talking about getting Americans back to work — eight days into his “15-day” challenge to get the public to social distance.
“This is not a country that was built for this. It was not built to be shut down,” Trump said. “America will, again, and soon, be open for business. Very soon. A lot sooner than three or four months that somebody was suggesting. Lot sooner. We cannot let the cure be worse than the problem itself.”
Trump’s daily press conferences have shifted in tone almost daily: Early on, he seemed skeptical of the severity of the situation, then he pivoted to calling himself a “wartime president,” and now he seems antsy to return to normalcy — so much so he’s dismissing his own health advisers’ advice and talking longingly about treatments as if they were ready for mainstream use.
In just one briefing, Trump gave at least six reasons that would make anyone following the coronavirus news wary of his judgment.
1) Trump admits he ignores expert advice
Trump is beginning to agitate for a return to normalcy, first tweeting the idea Sunday that workers should get back to work next week and then retweeting the idea Monday.
When asked during the press conference about whether he’s listening to his health advisers on whether that’s the best course, he responded:
“If it were up to the doctors, they’d say let’s shut down the entire world because again you’re up to 150 countries,” Trump said. “And when we shut it down that would be wonderful and let’s keep it shut for a couple of years. You can’t do that to a country, especially the No. 1 economy in the world by far.”
No doctor has gone this far. It’s a strawman argument to support Trump’s rejection of health experts’ recommendations as over the top.
However, many experts have said that to effectively “flatten the curve” of daily new infections, social distancing should last months to over a year. That’s how long it could take to develop and distribute a vaccine or establish herd immunity without severely overwhelming health systems.
Deborah Birx, the response coordinator for the White House Coronavirus Task Force, did not rule out a three- to four-month shutdown in certain parts of the country. She said that the pandemic has progressed much more quickly in Washington state, which is about two weeks ahead of New York state in terms of the increase in the rate of new infections.
2) Trump is primarily concerned about the economy
Trump is preoccupied by the economic impact of coronavirus — which, to be fair, has already been catastrophic. The stock market has had the fastest 30 percent sell-off ever and industries from airlines to restaurants are pleading for bailouts. It could plunge the US into a depression and leave many workers unemployed.
Trump has promised publicly that the stock market will bounce back once the crisis passed, but privately, he has reportedly expressed anger that warnings from Centers for Disease Control and Prevention officials have scared the markets.
He has tried to tie his hopes for the economy to his 2020 reelection prospects. As my colleague Aaron Rupar writes:
On Monday, the president followed up on his previous-night’s tweet by retweeting a number of accounts with sketchy handles like @steph93065 that urged him to get people back to work — not only for the sake of the economy, but for his reelection hopes as well. “15 days. Then we isolate the high risk groups and the rest of us get back to work before it’s all over for everyone!! #Landslide2020,” wrote @FedupMil in a post that was retweeted by the president.
Officials will have to reckon with the tradeoffs of reopening the economy and slowing the spread of the virus through social distancing at some point. But most public health experts say that it’s simply premature to talk about returning to normalcy in a few weeks.
3) Trump is pushing untested treatments
Trump continues to tout hydroxychloroquine, a common anti-malaria drug, coupled with the antibiotic azithromycin, also known as “Z-Pak,” as a potential treatment for the virus despite the fact that it hasn’t been tested and could have adverse side effects.
“At my direction, the federal government is working to help obtain large quantities of chloroquine,” he said. “We think tomorrow, pretty early, the hydroxychloroquine and the Z-Pak I think is a combination is looking very, very good and it’s going to be distributed.”
Anthony Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases at the National Institutes of Health, has previously said that he has no data to rely on that the drug is safe for people who’ve tested positive for coronavirus, nor any data that proves it is effective.
Meanwhile, Americans appear to be listening to Trump. BuzzFeed reports that a man died after self-medicating with a fish tank treatment related to the drug. Other reports suggest there’s a run on the drug itself, with some even crossing the border to buy it from Mexican pharmacies, making it harder for people who need it to access it.
4) Trump thinks coronavirus is like the flu or car accidents
For weeks, Trump has tried to claim that the coronavirus is like the flu, and he returned to that on Monday:
“We have a very bad flu season, on top of everything else,” he said. “It’s very bad. It looks like it could be over 50,000 [deaths]. And certainly, this [pandemic] is going to be bad. And we’re trying to make it so that it’s much, much less bad.”
But coronavirus is far more contagious — and more deadly. Here’s one chart that explains the difference.
Trump also compared the pandemic to car accidents, insinuating that pandemic deaths are equivalent.
“You look at automobile accidents, which are far greater than any numbers we’re talking about,” he said. “That doesn’t mean we’re going to tell everybody, ‘No more driving of cars.’”
The car accident comparison has come up before: On Friday, Fauci criticized the idea, calling it “false equivalence.” Then, at least, Trump seemed to agree with Fauci, saying, “You could be talking about millions of lives.”
5) Trump thinks he can turn the economy on and off (he can’t)
Trump might want to send workers back to work, but it’s really not up to him.
Trump can’t unilaterally reopen the economy — that power lies with states and localities, many of which have imposed “shelter in place” policies that have resulted in the closure of non-essential businesses where people typically congregate, such as bars and restaurants. In hotspots of infection and areas where the rate of new daily infections hasn’t yet peaked, that could mean social distancing could prevail for much longer than just a few weeks.
But Trump can advise states to reopen for business as usual, and at least some of them will likely heed his advice, despite what medical professionals may say. Lifting the social distancing restrictions prematurely could place vulnerable populations at risk by allowing the virus to spread too quickly and overwhelming the resources of the medical system, leading to preventable deaths.
6) Trump claims a recession is more deadly than the virus
Trump has been claiming for days that the economy would improve after the virus has been controlled. But on Sunday night, he changed tack, suggesting on Twitter that the economic toll of sending workers home could have a more devastating effect than letting the virus rip through the US population unchecked by social distancing:
WE CANNOT LET THE CURE BE WORSE THAN THE PROBLEM ITSELF. AT THE END OF THE 15 DAY PERIOD, WE WILL MAKE A DECISION AS TO WHICH WAY WE WANT TO GO! — Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) March 23, 2020
He reiterated that argument during his press conference on Monday, claiming that stifling the economy could be deadly in and of itself.
“We have people with tremendous anxiety and depression, and you have suicides over things like this when you have terrible economies,” he said. “[Death] would be in far greater numbers than the numbers we’re talking about with regard to the virus.”
The toll that isolation takes on people is real. So is the toll of unemployment — one reason Congress is considering a relief package. Studies have found that suicide rates do increase during economic downturns.
But it’s not clear what, if anything, backed up Trump’s assertion that social distancing would be more deadly. Research suggests some past recessions lowered overall death rates. It’s true that the suicide rate jumped during the Great Recession from 2008 to 2010, but not in the kind of numbers that would outpace the projected death toll of coronavirus. Roughly 10,000 suicides were traced to the recession. In the worst-case scenarios without social distancing, the coronavirus would kill millions.
Meanwhile, experts’ advice hasn’t changed
The advice from public health experts remains the same: practice good hygiene and social distancing, refrain from traveling, and consult a medical provider if you develop symptoms of Covid-19, the disease caused by the novel coronavirus. Scientists estimate this could be our new normal for a year or more.
The virus is primarily spread through droplets from coughing or sneezing. The CDC consequently recommends that people wash their hands often with soap and water for at least 20 seconds, disinfect frequently touched objects and avoid touching their face, where the virus can enter through the eyes, nose and mouth.
People should also avoid face-to-face interactions with people outside of their households. Many states have already adopted “shelter in place” policies that have shut down all but essential businesses. But this kind of social distancing even extends to small gatherings of friends and going for walks at popular times of day.
If you do develop symptoms, which typically include a fever and coughing, then you should contact a health care provider, who may recommend that you self-monitor at home or that you be tested for the virus (though there remains a shortage of available testing kits.)


vox--2020-03-24--Why Trump’s goal to end social distancing by Easter is so dangerous

President Donald Trump seems determined to end social distancing efforts by Easter ( April 12 ) , reiterating his plan at Tuesday ’ s press briefing to relax his administration ’ s guidelines in the next few weeks — even as experts continue to warn that efforts against the coronavirus could require months .
“ What a great timeline that would be , ” Trump said .
In recent days , Trump has been walking back previous suggestions from public officials — including his own remarks at earlier press briefings — that social distancing will be required for months .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ will , again , and soon , be open for business .
Very soon .
A lot sooner than three or four months that somebody was suggesting .
Lot sooner .
We can not let the cure be worse than the problem itself.
” But experts are clear about the massive risk that ending social distancing early — in weeks instead of months — could pose .
“ Everybody living through this wants to not be in this situation , ” Jen Kates , director of global health and HIV policy at the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ But the call to end it soon — and saying that ’ s his intention — is not based on public health .
There ’ s nothing to suggest that ending it soon will have any good impact at all.
” Instead , ending social distancing prematurely could cause more deaths .
“ More people will become infected .
More people will get sick .
More people will die , ” Kates said .
Epidemiological models back this up .
They indicate that coronavirus cases will rise if social distancing measures are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ if not millions of deaths in the US alone .
Trump , however , seems increasingly concerned about the damage to the economy that social distancing efforts are causing as restaurants , stores , and other businesses close or scale down and as Americans are told to stay home as much as possible .
Of course , hundreds of thousands or millions of people dying would be bad , too — a fact Trump acknowledged .
“ Above all , we know that the best thing for our economy is a very powerful @ @ @ @ @ @ @ said .
When pressed on the Easter timeline , Trump suggested it was based on a gut feeling , not on hard data .
Easter “ is a beautiful time , ” Trump said .
“ It would be a beautiful timeline.
” It ’ s unclear just how much say Trump has on this .
While the White House ’ s and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention ’ s guidelines are helpful to the public , officials , and health care providers , much of the actual policy change — from @ @ @ @ @ @ @ local and state level , where Trump has little control .
But to the extent state , local , and private leaders follow Trump ’ s lead , there is a giant risk here .
People will die if we end social distancing prematurely There ’ s good historical evidence for the risk of ending social distancing too soon .
In 1918 , the world was ravaged by a horrible flu pandemic , which was linked to as many as 100 million deaths globally and about 675,000 deaths in the US .
In @ @ @ @ @ @ @ variety of social distancing measures to combat the spread of disease .
Based on several studies of the period , these measures worked to reduce the death toll overall .
But many cities , also worried about the effects of social distancing on normal life and the economy , pulled back their social distancing efforts prematurely .
When they did , they saw flu cases — and deaths — rise again .
Consider St. Louis .
The city is now heralded as an example of how to do social distancing right because it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the flu pandemic early on .
But as a 2007 study published in JAMA found , St. Louis in 1918 pulled back its social distancing efforts prematurely — and that led to a spike in deaths .
Here ’ s how that looks in chart form , with the line chart representing excess flu deaths and the black and gray bars below showing when social distancing measures were in place .
The highest peak comes after social distancing measures were lifted , with the death rate falling only after they were reinstituted .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ Louis .
Analyzing data from 43 cities , the JAMA study found this pattern repeatedly across the country .
Howard Markel , an author of the study and the director of the University of Michigan ’ s Center for the History of Medicine , described the results as a bunch of “ double-humped epi curves ” — officials instituted social distancing measures , saw flu cases fall , then pulled back the measures and saw flu cases rise again .
Notably , the second rise in deaths only appeared when cities removed social @ @ @ @ @ @ @ : “ Among the 43 cities , we found no example of a city that had a second peak of influenza while the first set of nonpharmaceutical interventions were still in effect.
” Another 2007 study , published in PNAS , looked at 17 US cities and found the same trend : “ [ N ] o city in our analysis experienced a second wave while its main battery of [ nonpharmaceutical interventions ] was in place .
Second waves occurred only after the relaxation of interventions.
” A lot has changed in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ viruses and the widespread use of vaccines and other medications to combat all kinds of diseases .
But we still need to rely on nonpharmaceutical interventions , like social distancing , to combat epidemics and pandemics when we don ’ t have a vaccine .
And since we likely won ’ t have a vaccine for the novel coronavirus for another year or so , we ’ ll need social distancing for , potentially , months .
As the PNAS study concluded : “ In practice , and until emergency vaccine production capacity @ @ @ @ @ @ @ event of a severe pandemic , cities will likely need to maintain [ nonpharmaceutical interventions ] for longer than the 2–8 weeks that was the norm in 1918.
” We ’ re still in a very bad place One of the reasons we likely need social distancing efforts for some time : There ’ s no sign that the coronavirus epidemic in the US is ending soon .
As of March 24 , the US has more than 53,000 confirmed coronavirus cases , with nearly 700 deaths , according to Johns Hopkins University @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to rise exponentially , with no sign yet of a flattened curve .
( It ’ s unclear how much of this rise is due to more testing versus more spread , but it ’ s not a good sign either way . )
Meanwhile , experts and public health officials continue to complain that the country has botched its response .
There still isn ’ t enough testing , with people still complaining on social media that they can ’ t access tests even when they have symptoms .
Health care providers @ @ @ @ @ @ @ access to protective equipment , such as face masks , that they need to take care of patients .
At least until recently , most Americans didn ’ t appear to take calls to social distance very seriously .
Simply put , there ’ s no sign coronavirus is subsiding yet .
As experts previously told me , it could take two months or more of social distancing before the US starts to turn the corner .
“ To pick an arbitrary time when we haven ’ t ramped up testing and we @ @ @ @ @ @ @ supply issues … could really lead to a disaster , ” Kates explained .
Trump , however , seems very eager to end social distancing as soon as possible .
Even while other experts at the briefing talked down at the idea — Anthony Fauci , head of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases , cautioned “ flexibility ” on the timeline — Trump continued to play up the idea of ending social distancing guidelines by Easter .
“ I would love to see it come even sooner , ” Trump @ @ @ @ @ @ @ would be a beautiful timeline .
”

President Donald Trump seems determined to end social distancing efforts by Easter (April 12), reiterating his plan at Tuesday’s press briefing to relax his administration’s guidelines in the next few weeks — even as experts continue to warn that efforts against the coronavirus could require months.
“What a great timeline that would be,” Trump said.
In recent days, Trump has been walking back previous suggestions from public officials — including his own remarks at earlier press briefings — that social distancing will be required for months. He said on Monday, “America will, again, and soon, be open for business. Very soon. A lot sooner than three or four months that somebody was suggesting. Lot sooner. We cannot let the cure be worse than the problem itself.”
But experts are clear about the massive risk that ending social distancing early — in weeks instead of months — could pose.
“Everybody living through this wants to not be in this situation,” Jen Kates, director of global health and HIV policy at the Kaiser Family Foundation, told me. “But the call to end it soon — and saying that’s his intention — is not based on public health. There’s nothing to suggest that ending it soon will have any good impact at all.”
Instead, ending social distancing prematurely could cause more deaths. “More people will become infected. More people will get sick. More people will die,” Kates said.
Epidemiological models back this up. They indicate that coronavirus cases will rise if social distancing measures are relaxed, potentially causing hundreds of thousands if not millions of deaths in the US alone.
Trump, however, seems increasingly concerned about the damage to the economy that social distancing efforts are causing as restaurants, stores, and other businesses close or scale down and as Americans are told to stay home as much as possible.
Of course, hundreds of thousands or millions of people dying would be bad, too — a fact Trump acknowledged. “Above all, we know that the best thing for our economy is a very powerful victory over the virus,” he said.
When pressed on the Easter timeline, Trump suggested it was based on a gut feeling, not on hard data. Easter “is a beautiful time,” Trump said. “It would be a beautiful timeline.”
It’s unclear just how much say Trump has on this. While the White House’s and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s guidelines are helpful to the public, officials, and health care providers, much of the actual policy change — from lockdowns to curfews — happens at the local and state level, where Trump has little control.
But to the extent state, local, and private leaders follow Trump’s lead, there is a giant risk here.
People will die if we end social distancing prematurely
There’s good historical evidence for the risk of ending social distancing too soon.
In 1918, the world was ravaged by a horrible flu pandemic, which was linked to as many as 100 million deaths globally and about 675,000 deaths in the US. In response, cities across America adopted a variety of social distancing measures to combat the spread of disease. Based on several studies of the period, these measures worked to reduce the death toll overall.
But many cities, also worried about the effects of social distancing on normal life and the economy, pulled back their social distancing efforts prematurely. When they did, they saw flu cases — and deaths — rise again.
Consider St. Louis. The city is now heralded as an example of how to do social distancing right because it took an aggressive and layered response to the flu pandemic early on. But as a 2007 study published in JAMA found, St. Louis in 1918 pulled back its social distancing efforts prematurely — and that led to a spike in deaths.
Here’s how that looks in chart form, with the line chart representing excess flu deaths and the black and gray bars below showing when social distancing measures were in place. The highest peak comes after social distancing measures were lifted, with the death rate falling only after they were reinstituted.
This did not just happen in St. Louis. Analyzing data from 43 cities, the JAMA study found this pattern repeatedly across the country. Howard Markel, an author of the study and the director of the University of Michigan’s Center for the History of Medicine, described the results as a bunch of “double-humped epi curves” — officials instituted social distancing measures, saw flu cases fall, then pulled back the measures and saw flu cases rise again.
Notably, the second rise in deaths only appeared when cities removed social distancing measures, the JAMA study found: “Among the 43 cities, we found no example of a city that had a second peak of influenza while the first set of nonpharmaceutical interventions were still in effect.”
Another 2007 study, published in PNAS, looked at 17 US cities and found the same trend: “[N]o city in our analysis experienced a second wave while its main battery of [nonpharmaceutical interventions] was in place. Second waves occurred only after the relaxation of interventions.”
A lot has changed in medicine since 1918, with knowledge of viruses and the widespread use of vaccines and other medications to combat all kinds of diseases. But we still need to rely on nonpharmaceutical interventions, like social distancing, to combat epidemics and pandemics when we don’t have a vaccine. And since we likely won’t have a vaccine for the novel coronavirus for another year or so, we’ll need social distancing for, potentially, months.
As the PNAS study concluded: “In practice, and until emergency vaccine production capacity increases, this means that in the event of a severe pandemic, cities will likely need to maintain [nonpharmaceutical interventions] for longer than the 2–8 weeks that was the norm in 1918.”
We’re still in a very bad place
One of the reasons we likely need social distancing efforts for some time: There’s no sign that the coronavirus epidemic in the US is ending soon.
As of March 24, the US has more than 53,000 confirmed coronavirus cases, with nearly 700 deaths, according to Johns Hopkins University. America’s confirmed cases continue to rise exponentially, with no sign yet of a flattened curve. (It’s unclear how much of this rise is due to more testing versus more spread, but it’s not a good sign either way.)
Meanwhile, experts and public health officials continue to complain that the country has botched its response. There still isn’t enough testing, with people still complaining on social media that they can’t access tests even when they have symptoms. Health care providers still say they don’t have access to protective equipment, such as face masks, that they need to take care of patients. At least until recently, most Americans didn’t appear to take calls to social distance very seriously.
Simply put, there’s no sign coronavirus is subsiding yet. As experts previously told me, it could take two months or more of social distancing before the US starts to turn the corner.
“To pick an arbitrary time when we haven’t ramped up testing and we haven’t shored up the hospital supply issues … could really lead to a disaster,” Kates explained.
Trump, however, seems very eager to end social distancing as soon as possible. Even while other experts at the briefing talked down at the idea — Anthony Fauci, head of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, cautioned “flexibility” on the timeline — Trump continued to play up the idea of ending social distancing guidelines by Easter.
“I would love to see it come even sooner,” Trump said, “but I think that would be a beautiful timeline.”


vox--2020-03-24--How has the coronavirus pandemic impacted your life? Share to help Vox’s reporting.

The outbreak of the novel coronavirus — and the disease it causes , Covid-19 — continues to evolve at a rapid pace .
With ever-increasing case counts around the world , warnings to prepare , confusion over testing , and school and business closures , it ’ s no wonder that questions are swirling .
Our job at Vox is to help you understand the situation as it unfolds .
And we want to know what your experience has been when it comes to testing for the virus , working from home with kids , and staying healthy .
So @ @ @ @ @ @ @ following stories based on questions and experiences that have been shared with us : • Coronavirus will also cause a loneliness epidemic • Restaurant workers on how their lives have been changed by the coronavirus • A grocery store clerk explains what it ’ s like on the front lines of coronavirus panic • “ Our new life of isolation ” : 5 people across the world on staying inside to avoid Covid-19 • “ The babies keep coming ” : What the coronavirus pandemic means for people giving birth • “ Each @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Life in Italy under full coronavirus lockdown • How Spain ’ s coronavirus outbreak got so bad so fast — and how Spaniards are trying to cope We want to hear from you Your voice is an important part of making sure that our coverage is focused on the most important issues related to the coronavirus right now .
Fill out any of the following forms that are relevant to you , and we might use your story in an upcoming article , podcast episode , or video .
• You work in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ impacted by the coronavirus .
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• You have general questions about the coronavirus pandemic .
• You ’ ve seen coronavirus-related misinformation on Facebook or Instagram that has been flagged by third-party fact-checkers .

The outbreak of the novel coronavirus — and the disease it causes, Covid-19 — continues to evolve at a rapid pace. With ever-increasing case counts around the world, warnings to prepare, confusion over testing, and school and business closures, it’s no wonder that questions are swirling.
Our job at Vox is to help you understand the situation as it unfolds. And we want to know what your experience has been when it comes to testing for the virus, working from home with kids, and staying healthy.
So far, we’ve reported the following stories based on questions and experiences that have been shared with us:
We want to hear from you
Your voice is an important part of making sure that our coverage is focused on the most important issues related to the coronavirus right now. Fill out any of the following forms that are relevant to you, and we might use your story in an upcoming article, podcast episode, or video.


vox--2020-03-24--Understand the unfolding coronavirus pandemic with these Vox podcast episodes

The coronavirus outbreak that causes the Covid-19 illness continues to spread as a health threat across the globe .
As new coronavirus cases are discovered , questions keep popping up about how to prepare for an outbreak , how to travel , and the difference between quarantine , isolation , and social distancing — to name a few .
That ’ s where Vox podcasts come in .
From what it ’ s like to be quarantined with coronavirus to how prepared the US is set up to respond to this outbreak to how AI warned about coronavirus before the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , The Weeds , Worldy , Reset , Recode Decode , and Recode Media episodes will help you understand the situation as it unfolds .
March 24 , 2020 | How the tech giant is responding to the pandemic , and what it says about Amazon as a company .
March 24 , 2020 | Jane , Dara , and Matt on the Defense Production Act , wartime mobilization , and pandemic-induced autarky .
March 23 , 2020 | Vox ’ s Julia Belluz went from covering the global coronavirus pandemic to giving @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ( Transcript here . )
Learn more about your ad choices .
Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices An economic crisis like we ’ ve never seen March 23 , 2020 | “ What is happening , ” writes Annie Lowrey , “ is a shock to the American economy more sudden and severe than anyone alive has ever experienced.
” It ’ s also different from what anyone alive has ever experienced .
For many of us , the Great Recession is the closest analogue — but it ’ s not analogous at all .
There @ @ @ @ @ @ @ unchanged , but financial markets were in crisis .
Here , we are purposefully freezing economic activity in order to slow a public health crisis .
Early data suggests the economic crisis is going to far exceed any single week or quarter of the financial crisis .
Multiple economists have told Ezra Klein that the nearest analogy to what we ’ re going through is the economy during World War II .
“ I have a secret advantage when trying to understand moments of economic upheaval .
I ’ m married to Annie @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ I can give you the bio — staff writer at the Atlantic , author of Give People Money ( which is proving particularly prophetic and influential right now ) — but suffice to say she ’ s one of the clearest and most brilliant economic thinkers I know .
Her viral piece on the affordability crisis is crucial for understanding what the economy really looked like before Covid-19 , and she ’ s been doing some of the best work on the way Covid-19 will worsen the economic problems we had and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ But this isn ’ t just a conversation about crisis .
It ’ s also a conversation about how to respond .
I wouldn ’ t call it hopeful — we ’ re not there yet .
But constructive.
” The biggest experiment in online learning , ever March 22 , 2020 | COVID-19 has shut schools all over the country , and millions of American students are now learning at home , online .
Are online tools enough to make up for lost classroom time ?
March 20 , 2020 | On @ @ @ @ @ @ @ listener ’ s questions : Why is there no TP ?
Will we run out of food ?
Can I get the virus from sex ?
Should I finally write my will ?
How can I help ?
How quickly can we treat covid-19 ?
March 19 , 2020 | The scientific community is moving at unprecedented speed to develop a way to treat COVID-19 .
But how soon can a treatment or a vaccine be available to the public ?
March 19 , 2020 | Vox ’ s Brian Resnick ( safely @ @ @ @ @ @ @ D.C. park to deliver the Five Commandments of social distancing .
“ The virus is more patient than people are ” March 19 , 2020 | Ron Klain served as the chief of staff to vice presidents Al Gore and Joe Biden .
In 2014 , President Barack Obama tapped him to lead the administration ’ s response to the Ebola outbreak in West Africa .
He successfully oversaw a hellishly complex effort preparing domestically for an outbreak and surging health resources onto another continent to contain the disease .
But Klain is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a harder challenge even than Ebola .
The economy is in free fall .
Entire cities have been told to shelter in place .
And there ’ s no telling how long any of this will last .
In this conversation , Klain answers Ezra Klein ’ s questions about the disease and how to respond to it , as well as questions many of you submitted .
TFW your dad gives you Covid-19 March 18 , 2020 | Sean speaks to a Brooklyn family that has Covid-19 , and Vox ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is still trying to get its act together on testing .
March 17 , 2020 | Jane , Dara , and Matt discuss President Trump ’ s new more serious tone and competing economic stimulus proposals .
March 17 , 2020 | After dismissing coronavirus concerns for months , President Donald is pivoting to serious action to slow the crisis in the United States .
March 16 , 2020 | The country ’ s largest school district told a million kids to stay home during the coronavirus pandemic .
It ’ s creating @ @ @ @ @ @ @ parents .
Maggie Haberman : How coronavirus changes everything for President Trump March 16 , 2020 | Maggie Haberman , the White House correspondent for the New York Times , talks with Recode ’ s Kara Swisher about how the rest of the country has bypassed Trump ’ s failure to lead on the coronavirus outbreak ; his exposure to COVID-19 at Mar-a-Lago and refusal to self-quarantine ; and the toxic cocktail of practices in his administration : Infighting , tiptoeing , and sucking up .
She also discusses CDC director Anthony Fauci @ @ @ @ @ @ @ President Trump ’ s trust problem , how Vice President Pence is doing at the helm of the coronavirus task force , and how this period could have a bigger impact on Trump ’ s re-election chances than previous crises .
Plus : Who is actually running things at the White House right now , and can Trump operate his campaign without mass rallies ?
March 14 , 2020 | Ezra and Matt on dueling pandemic response plans from Sanders and Biden , and Trump ’ s disastrous speech .
March 14 , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ country in an effort to slow the spread of coronavirus .
Vox ’ s Julia Belluz explains why the US might look like Italy soon .
Ron Klain : The coronavirus outbreak is just getting started in the US March 13 , 2020 | Epidemic co-host Ron Klain , who led the White House ’ s ebola response under President Obama , talks to Recode ’ s Kara Swisher about how the COVID-19 outbreak will strain America ’ s healthcare system ; how President Trump downplayed the crisis , rattling public confidence and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and the way people who work in the gig economy — including Uber drivers and food delivery workers — will be especially hurt by the situation .
He also discusses the logic behind travel bans and limits of their efficacy , why it ’ s impossible for the US to completely cut itself off from China , and what Trump didn ’ t say in his Oval Office address , but should have .
Klain , an adviser and former chief of staff to Joe Biden , also talks about the ex-vice president @ @ @ @ @ @ @ how it ’ s reckoning with Biden ’ s history of verbal flubs .
How to slow down coronavirus March 12 , 2020 | President Trump has banned most Europeans from traveling to the US .
Vox ’ s Jen Kirby explains why that won ’ t stop the novel coronavirus from spreading , and Eliza Barclay tells us what we can do to slow the spread .
Every country for itself March 12 , 2020 | Zack , Jenn , and Alex record an episode on coronavirus from their respective homes , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ politics of Trump ’ s ban on European travel to the US and explore why the European Union seems to be neglecting to help Italy in its time of need .
They also explain how the virus has led to a massive drop in oil prices — and why , at this particular time , this could seriously destabilize political systems around the world .
Why the coronavirus shut down the NBA , with ESPN ’ s Brian Windhurst March 11 , 2020 | In a conversation taped hours before the NBA suspended @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Windhorst and Recode ’ s Peter Kafka discuss how the Coronavirus could affect the NBA , and why the league could cancel games — including its playoffs this spring - entirely .
Windhorst also discusses the NBA ’ s TV problems , its dust-up with China last fall , and how LeBron James kickstarted his career .
March 10 , 2020 | The stock market ’ s going haywire .
Major companies are telling their employees to stay home .
Austin has canceled SXSW .
Vox ’ s Matthew Yglesias says governments across @ @ @ @ @ @ @ save the global economy .
March 10 , 2020 | The cost of China ’ s high-tech response to contain the coronavirus .
So you think you have Covid-19 March 6 , 2020 | Thus far , the United States hasn ’ t been doing the best job of testing for the novel coronavirus .
ProPublica ’ s Caroline Chen explains why .
March 6 , 2020 | The Kaiser Foundation ’ s Josh Michaud explains what the US is — and should be — doing to fight coronavirus .
March 5 , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of coronavirus misinformation on social media ?
Covid-19 , explained by Carl ( who has it ) March 3 , 2020 | Carl Goldman was on the Diamond Princess cruise ship and now he has Covid-19 .
He speaks to Sean Rameswaram from a CDC quarantine in Omaha , Nebraska .
March 3 , 2020 | Jane Coaston , Dara Lind , and Brian Resnick talk about Covid-19 — how it started , its potential impact , and where we go from here .
February 18 , 2020 | One coronavirus .
Two @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The Japanese case shows us that quarantining people on a cruise ship to stop the spread of Covid-19 can backfire , while the Cambodia case suggests that letting people disembark and disperse around the world can create a public health nightmare .
Find out what these cruise ship emergencies reveal about the largest outbreak .
February 13 , 2020 | Zack Beauchamp and Alex Ward talk about the politics of the coronavirus outbreak in China : Why the Chinese government botched the initial response , why Chinese citizens are so angry about it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ with this response are inherent to the current Chinese governance model .
They then debate the claim from many analysts that this is the most serious crisis for China ’ s regime since the 1989 Tiananmen Square uprising — and the ( low ) probability that this could trigger another revolution-minded uprising .
How will the coronavirus outbreak end ?
February 6 , 2020 | In 2015 , Dr. Vineet Menachery said a SARS-like virus could spread to humans more easily than previously believed .
Now he explains what we can do to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ coronavirus before the CDC February 4 , 2020 | How AI could predict the next big outbreak .
You can check out our guide to news of the coronavirus outbreak here .

The coronavirus outbreak that causes the Covid-19 illness continues to spread as a health threat across the globe. As new coronavirus cases are discovered, questions keep popping up about how to prepare for an outbreak, how to travel, and the difference between quarantine, isolation, and social distancing — to name a few.
That’s where Vox podcasts come in. From what it’s like to be quarantined with coronavirus to how prepared the US is set up to respond to this outbreak to how AI warned about coronavirus before the CDC, the following Today, Explained, The Weeds, Worldy, Reset, and Recode Decode episodes will help you understand the situation as it unfolds.
How coronavirus is impacting education
April 23, 2020 | Teachers and students are still struggling with online education.
Conspiracy-19
April 23, 2020 | Vox’s science editor, Eliza Barclay, arms you with the facts you need to fight your uncle’s favorite coronavirus conspiracy theories.
This one’s for Earth
April 22, 2020 | Cryptic treehunters. Unknown apples. Flowers fighting back. On the 50th anniversary of Earth Day, Vox’s Umair Irfan and Brian Resnick explain what we learned about the planet in the last year.
Opening up
April 21, 2020 | Dara, Jane, and Matt on conservatives’ desire for a rapid reopening of American businesses, and a ‘feel good’ white paper about air pollution.
The 5G coronavirus conspiracy theory
April 21, 2020 | A coronavirus conspiracy theory has led to arson attacks in the UK. And - how to talk to friends and family about coronavirus misinformation.
One day, three healthcare workers
April 21, 2020 | A nurse, a paramedic, and a physician’s assistant record themselves throughout the course of a day in the fight against Covid-19.
The epicenter of the epicenter
April 20, 2020 | Covid-19’s victims, and the people they leave behind.
The year 2038 problem
April 19, 2020 | What’s the deal with January 19th, 2038? Why remembering Y2K correctly matters.
Help is on the way (sort of)
April 17, 2020 | Ezra and Matt break down the implementation problems that have bedeviled the CARES Act.
Long shot
April 17, 2020 | It could be a year or more before the vaccine is ready, but there’s a radical plan to speed up the process.
Contact Tracing, Explained
April 16, 2020 | Public health’s “tried and true” tactic against infectious disease, and how Google and Apple want to help end the lockdown.
Zeke Emanuel’s exit strategy
April 16, 2020 | President Trump wants to reopen the country yesterday. Bioethicist Zeke Emanuel, who served as a health policy advisor to former President Obama, offers a safe path.
Death Cab for The Postal Service?
April 15, 2020 | The United States Postal Service is on the brink of collapse. Vox’s Matthew Yglesias explains how and why the country should save it.
How indie bookstores might survive the pandemic
April 14, 2020 | There’s a new online bookseller in town that’s trying to save your local indie bookstore.
All praise, no pay
April 14, 2020 | Essential workers in the food, transportation, and retail industries are being called American heroes. They want to be paid as such.
The corporate bailout watchdog
April 14, 2020 | Congressional oversight committee member Bharat Ramamurti joins Matt to explain his new job and what’s wrong with shareholder capitalism.
Elizabeth Warren has a plan for this, too
April 13, 2020 | Friend of the show Ezra Klein speaks to Sen. Elizabeth Warren about several plans she has proposed to combat this pandemic.
The Internet Has a Crush on Dr. Fauci
April 12, 2020 | From fan pages to food pics, Dr. Anthony Fauci is everywhere. The Verge’s Makena Kelly explains the person behind the meme.
How does this end?
April 10, 2020 | Ezra and Matt review four major plans for after social distancing; plus the Democratic primary finally ends.
The loneliness pandemic
April 10, 2020 | Coronavirus has led to another pandemic: social isolation. Vox’s Ezra Klein says this sickness has a cure.
Six feet away from God
April 9, 2020 | While a few religious leaders flout shelter in place ordinances, Easter, Passover, and Ramadan are inspiring most to get creative with worship.
Toby Ord on existential risk, Donald Trump, and thinking in probabilities
April 9, 2020 | Oxford philosopher Toby Ord spent the early part of his career spearheading the effective altruism movement, founding Giving What We Can, and focusing his attention primarily on issue areas like global public health and extreme poverty. Ord’s new book The Precipice is about something entirely different: the biggest existential risks to the future of humanity. In it, he predicts that humanity has approximately a 1 in 6 chance of going completely extinct by the end of the 21st century. The coronavirus pandemic is a reminder that tail risk is real. We always knew a zoological respiratory virus could become a global pandemic. But, collectively, we didn’t want to think about it, and so we didn’t. The result is the reality we live in now.
But for all the current moment’s horror, there are worse risks than coronavirus out there. One silver lining of the current crisis might be that it gets us to take them seriously, and avert them before they become unstoppable. That’s what Ord’s book is about, and it is, in a strange way, a comfort.
This, then, is a conversation about the risks that threaten humanity’s future, and what we can do about them. It’s a conversation about thinking in probabilities, about the ethics of taking future human lives seriously, about how we weigh the risks we don’t yet understand.
Will your favorite restaurant survive?
April 9, 2020 | Why the pandemic is exposing the complicated relationship between delivery apps and restaurants and how a restaurateur and app developer is helping keep his industry alive.
Vote and die
April 8, 2020 | Wisconsinites had to choose between catching Covid-19 and voting on Tuesday. Is the rest of the country next?
Your phone knows if you’re staying at home
April 7, 2020 | And it is telling the government. The Verge’s Casey Newton explains how location data is helping fight coronavirus, and why even privacy advocates don’t think that’s such a bad thing. Featuring Casey Newton, Silicon Valley Editor at the Verge.
“The Great Equalizer”
April 7, 2020 | Madonna was wrong. Covid-19 isn’t an equalizer. It’s coming for America’s most vulnerable populations.
The immunity test
April 6, 2020 | A vaccine will take a while, but Vox’s Umair Irfan says the global effort to test for immunity and treat Covid-19 is well underway.
Elizabeth Warren has a plan for this, too
April 6, 2020 | In January, Sen. Elizabeth Warren was the first presidential candidate to release a plan for combatting coronavirus. In March, she released a second plan. Days later, with the scale of economic damage increasing, she released a third. Warren’s proposals track the spread of the virus: from a problem happening elsewhere and demanding a surge in global health resources to a pandemic happening here, demanding not just a public health response, but an all-out effort to save the US economy. Warren’s penchant for planning stands in particular stark contrast to this administration, which still has not released a clear coronavirus plan. There is no document you can download, no web site you can visit, that details our national strategy to slow the disease and rebuild the economy.
So I asked Warren to return to the show to explain what the plan should be, given the cold reality we face. We discussed what, specifically, the federal government should do; the roots of the testing debacle; her idea for mobilizing the economy around building affordable housing; why she thinks that this is exactly the right time to cancel student loan debt; why America spends so much money preparing for war and so little defending itself against pandemics and climate change; whether she thinks the Democratic primary focused on the wrong issues; and how this crisis is making a grim mockery of Ronald Reagan’s old saw about “the scariest words in the English language.”
The two types of tests we need to end this
April 5, 2020 | How testing technology will help end the spread of covid-19.
Mask on? Mask off?
April 3, 2020 | In an about-face, the Centers for Disease Control would now like you to cover your mouth and nose when you go outside.
Coronavirus meets health reform
April 3, 2020 | Ezra and Matt discuss Covid-19’s impact on insurance premiums, the case for single-payer, and more.
6.6 million more unemployed
April 2, 2020 | Last week’s unemployment numbers shattered all records. This week, they doubled. Vox’s Matthew Yglesias, host of The Weeds podcast, proposes a way out of this mess.
The race to make more ventilators
April 2, 2020 | Why life-saving ventilators for Covid-19 patients are in short supply, and how people like Dr. Richard Boyer are trying to fix that.
What social solidarity demands of us in a pandemic
April 2, 2020 | There is no doubt that social distancing is the best way to slow the spread of the coronavirus. But the efficacy of social distancing (or really any other public health measure) relies on something much deeper and harder to measure: social solidarity.
“Solidarity,” writes Eric Klinenberg, “motivates us to promote public health, not just our own personal security. It keeps us from hoarding medicine, toughing out a cold in the workplace or sending a sick child to school. It compels us to let a ship of stranded people dock in our safe harbors, to knock on our older neighbor’s door.” Klinenberg, a sociologist by trade, is the director of the Institute for Public Knowledge at New York University. His first book, Heat Wave, found that social connection was, at times, literally the difference between life and death during Chicago’s 1995 heat wave. Since then, he’s spent his career studying trends in American social life, from the rise of adults living alone to the importance of “social infrastructure” in holding together our civic bonds.
This conversation is about what happens when a country mired in a mythos of individualism collides with a pandemic that demands social solidarity and collective sacrifice. It’s about preventing an epidemic of loneliness and social isolation from overwhelming the most vulnerable among us. We discuss the underlying social trends that predated coronavirus, what kind of leadership it takes to actually bring people together, the irony of asking young people and essential workers to sacrifice for the rest of us, whether there’s an opportunity to build a different kind of society in the aftermath of Covid-19, and much more.
Lockdown while locked up
April 1, 2020 | Arthur Longworth calls Sean from Washington State Reformatory to explain what it’s like to serve a life sentence at a prison where the coronavirus is spreading.
There’s no social distancing in Animal Crossing
March 31, 2020 | Nintendo’s new game New Horizons has become a place to escape the reality of a global pandemic, gather with friends online - and even get married.
The trouble with Trump’s daily briefings
March 31, 2020 | Part rally, part media-bashing, part critical updates on the coronavirus crisis, President Trump’s daily press briefings are muddying the message.
Coronavirus has pushed US-China relations to their worst point since Mao
March 30, 2020 | The COVID-19 pandemic is a grim reminder that the worst really can happen. Tail risk is real risk. Political leaders fumble, miscalculate, and bluster into avoidable disaster. And even as we try to deal with this catastrophe, the seeds of another are sprouting.
The US-China relationship will define geopolitics in the 21st century. If we collapse into rivalry, conflict, and politically opportunistic nationalism, the results could be hellish. And we are, right now, collapsing into rivalry, conflict, and politically opportunistic nationalism.
The Trump administration, and key congressional Republicans, are calling COVID-19 “the Chinese virus,” and trying to gin up tensions to distract from their domestic failures. Chinese government officials, beset by their own domestic problems, are claiming the US military brought the virus to China. The US-China relationship was in a bad way six months ago, but this is a new level of threat.
Evan Osnos covers the US-China relationship for the New Yorker, and is author of the National Book Award winner, The Age of Ambition: Chasing Fortune, Truth and Faith in the New China. In this conversation, we discuss the past, present and future of the US-China relationship. What are the chances of armed conflict? What might deescalation look like? And we know what the US wants — what, in truth, does China want?
Airborne, Explained
March 29, 2020 | What do we mean when we say “airborne?”; plus, the most important unanswered questions about how coronavirus is transmitted.
Your coronavirus questions, answered (Part II)
March 27, 2020 | On today’s show, more listener questions: Why isn’t everyone social distancing? Will I be immune after I get it? When will this end? My anxiety is spiking!
When $2 trillion isn’t enough
March 27, 2020 | Ezra and Matt analyze the huge but inadequate stimulus bill.
Deepak Chopra: “If this doesn’t bring us together, then we deserve whatever happens”
March 27, 2020 | Dr. Deepak Chopra talks with Recode’s Kara Swisher about how to cope with the global threat posed by coronavirus, the parallel “pandemic of panic,” and how to not be overwhelmed by fear and anxiety.
Is the cure worse than the disease?
March 26, 2020 | “We cannot let the cure be worse than the problem itself!” That was President Donald Trump, this week, explaining why he was thinking about lifting coronavirus guidelines earlier than public-health experts recommended. The “cure,” in this case, is social distancing, and the mass economic stoppage it forces. The problem, of course, is COVID-19, and the millions of deaths it could cause.
This is a debate that needs to be taken seriously. Slowing coronavirus will impose real costs, and immense suffering, on society. Are those costs worth it? This is the most important public policy question right now. And if the discussion isn’t had well, then it will be had, as we’re already seeing, poorly, and dangerously.
What this coronavirus does to your body
March 26, 2020 | Why does it spread so easily? And could it mutate into something worse? The Atlantic’s Ed Yong explains the science so far.
The two trillion dollar question
March 25, 2020 | Congress has settled on a historic stimulus package, but Ezra Klein is worried it might not be enough.
Chamath Palihapitiya: “The investing landscape is done,” taxes will go up, and a two-week lockdown is inevitable
March 25, 2020 | Social Capital CEO Chamath Palihapitiya talks with Recode’s Kara Swisher about how long it will take to recover from the coronavirus crisis, its impact on startups, and how the US government should and will react — including by tracking individuals via their technology and repatriating cash from tech companies like Apple. Palihapitiya says businesses should make sure they have at least 36 months worth of cash on hand to weather this recession and its slow recovery period and predicts the US will need to devote an entire year’s GDP to combat covid-19. He criticizes the corporate “shenanigans” that will make economic recovery harder says he’s done investing for at least nine months, because anyone trying to do deals now will be “decapitated.” Plus: What we can all learn right now from the histories of the Great Depression and the 2008 financial crisis, and which industries will come out of this crisis stronger than before?
Asia’s second wave
March 24, 2020 | Social Capital CEO Chamath Palihapitiya talks with Recode’s Kara Swisher about how long it will take to recover from the coronavirus crisis, its impact on startups,
Is Amazon primed for coronavirus?
March 24, 2020 | How the tech giant is responding to the pandemic, and what it says about Amazon as a company.
Fighting coronavirus with corporate conscription
March 24, 2020 | Jane, Dara, and Matt on the Defense Production Act, wartime mobilization, and pandemic-induced autarky.
Giving birth in a pandemic
March 23, 2020 | Vox’s Julia Belluz went from covering the global coronavirus pandemic to giving birth in the middle of it. (Transcript here.) Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
An economic crisis like we’ve never seen
March 23, 2020 | “What is happening,” writes Annie Lowrey, “is a shock to the American economy more sudden and severe than anyone alive has ever experienced.”
It’s also different from what anyone alive has ever experienced. For many of us, the Great Recession is the closest analogue — but it’s not analogous at all. There, the economy’s potential was unchanged, but financial markets were in crisis. Here, we are purposefully freezing economic activity in order to slow a public health crisis. Early data suggests the economic crisis is going to far exceed any single week or quarter of the financial crisis. Multiple economists have told Ezra Klein that the nearest analogy to what we’re going through is the economy during World War II.
“I have a secret advantage when trying to understand moments of economic upheaval. I’m married to Annie Lowrey,” writes Ezra Klein. “I can give you the bio — staff writer at the Atlantic, author of Give People Money (which is proving particularly prophetic and influential right now) — but suffice to say she’s one of the clearest and most brilliant economic thinkers I know. Her viral piece on the affordability crisis is crucial for understanding what the economy really looked like before Covid-19, and she’s been doing some of the best work on the way Covid-19 will worsen the economic problems we had and create a slew of new ones. But this isn’t just a conversation about crisis. It’s also a conversation about how to respond. I wouldn’t call it hopeful — we’re not there yet. But constructive.”
The biggest experiment in online learning, ever
March 22, 2020 | COVID-19 has shut schools all over the country, and millions of American students are now learning at home, online. Are online tools enough to make up for lost classroom time?
Your coronavirus questions, answered
March 20, 2020 | On today’s show, we answer listener’s questions: Why is there no TP? Will we run out of food? Can I get the virus from sex? Should I finally write my will? How can I help?
How quickly can we treat covid-19?
March 19, 2020 | The scientific community is moving at unprecedented speed to develop a way to treat COVID-19. But how soon can a treatment or a vaccine be available to the public?
Six feet away
March 19, 2020 | Vox’s Brian Resnick (safely) meets Sean in a Washington, D.C. park to deliver the Five Commandments of social distancing.
“The virus is more patient than people are”
March 19, 2020 | Ron Klain served as the chief of staff to vice presidents Al Gore and Joe Biden. In 2014, President Barack Obama tapped him to lead the administration’s response to the Ebola outbreak in West Africa. He successfully oversaw a hellishly complex effort preparing domestically for an outbreak and surging health resources onto another continent to contain the disease.
But Klain is quick to say that the coronavirus is a harder challenge even than Ebola. The economy is in free fall. Entire cities have been told to shelter in place. And there’s no telling how long any of this will last. In this conversation, Klain answers Ezra Klein’s questions about the disease and how to respond to it, as well as questions many of you submitted.
TFW your dad gives you Covid-19
March 18, 2020 | Sean speaks to a Brooklyn family that has Covid-19, and Vox’s Dylan Scott explains how the United States is still trying to get its act together on testing.
Rescuing the economy from coronavirus
March 17, 2020 | Jane, Dara, and Matt discuss President Trump’s new more serious tone and competing economic stimulus proposals.
Can President Trump fix this?
March 17, 2020 | After dismissing coronavirus concerns for months, President Donald is pivoting to serious action to slow the crisis in the United States.
School’s out for Covid
March 16, 2020 | The country’s largest school district told a million kids to stay home during the coronavirus pandemic. It’s creating chaos for teachers, students, and parents.
Maggie Haberman: How coronavirus changes everything for President Trump
March 16, 2020 | Maggie Haberman, the White House correspondent for the New York Times, talks with Recode’s Kara Swisher about how the rest of the country has bypassed Trump’s failure to lead on the coronavirus outbreak; his exposure to COVID-19 at Mar-a-Lago and refusal to self-quarantine; and the toxic cocktail of practices in his administration: Infighting, tiptoeing, and sucking up.
She also discusses CDC director Anthony Fauci’s “unimpeachable” credibility vs. President Trump’s trust problem, how Vice President Pence is doing at the helm of the coronavirus task force, and how this period could have a bigger impact on Trump’s re-election chances than previous crises. Plus: Who is actually running things at the White House right now, and can Trump operate his campaign without mass rallies?
Weeds 2020: The coronavirus election
March 14, 2020 | Ezra and Matt on dueling pandemic response plans from Sanders and Biden, and Trump’s disastrous speech.
Living in lockdown
March 14, 2020 | Italy has quarantined the whole country in an effort to slow the spread of coronavirus. Vox’s Julia Belluz explains why the US might look like Italy soon.
Ron Klain: The coronavirus outbreak is just getting started in the US
March 13, 2020 | Epidemic co-host Ron Klain, who led the White House’s ebola response under President Obama, talks to Recode’s Kara Swisher about how the COVID-19 outbreak will strain America’s healthcare system; how President Trump downplayed the crisis, rattling public confidence and delaying the country’s response; and the way people who work in the gig economy — including Uber drivers and food delivery workers — will be especially hurt by the situation. He also discusses the logic behind travel bans and limits of their efficacy, why it’s impossible for the US to completely cut itself off from China, and what Trump didn’t say in his Oval Office address, but should have. Klain, an adviser and former chief of staff to Joe Biden, also talks about the ex-vice president’s surprisingly successful presidential campaign and how it’s reckoning with Biden’s history of verbal flubs.
How to slow down coronavirus
March 12, 2020 | President Trump has banned most Europeans from traveling to the US. Vox’s Jen Kirby explains why that won’t stop the novel coronavirus from spreading, and Eliza Barclay tells us what we can do to slow the spread.
Every country for itself
March 12, 2020 | Zack, Jenn, and Alex record an episode on coronavirus from their respective homes, under self-isolation. They talk about the politics of Trump’s ban on European travel to the US and explore why the European Union seems to be neglecting to help Italy in its time of need. They also explain how the virus has led to a massive drop in oil prices — and why, at this particular time, this could seriously destabilize political systems around the world.
Coronavirus hits the markets
March 10, 2020 | The stock market’s going haywire. Major companies are telling their employees to stay home. Austin has canceled SXSW. Vox’s Matthew Yglesias says governments across the world have to act fast to save the global economy.
Does stopping coronavirus require more surveillance?
March 10, 2020 | The cost of China’s high-tech response to contain the coronavirus.
So you think you have Covid-19
March 6, 2020 | Thus far, the United States hasn’t been doing the best job of testing for the novel coronavirus. ProPublica’s Caroline Chen explains why.
The coronavirus rumor mill
March 5, 2020 | Can we stop the spread of coronavirus misinformation on social media?
Covid-19, explained by Carl (who has it)
March 3, 2020 | Carl Goldman was on the Diamond Princess cruise ship and now he has Covid-19. He speaks to Sean Rameswaram from a CDC quarantine in Omaha, Nebraska.
The floating petri dish
February 18, 2020 | One coronavirus. Two cruise ships. Lots of mistakes. The Japanese case shows us that quarantining people on a cruise ship to stop the spread of Covid-19 can backfire, while the Cambodia case suggests that letting people disembark and disperse around the world can create a public health nightmare. Find out what these cruise ship emergencies reveal about the largest outbreak.
Could coronavirus collapse Chinese communism?
February 13, 2020 | Zack Beauchamp and Alex Ward talk about the politics of the coronavirus outbreak in China: Why the Chinese government botched the initial response, why Chinese citizens are so angry about it, and the reasons why the problems with this response are inherent to the current Chinese governance model. They then debate the claim from many analysts that this is the most serious crisis for China’s regime since the 1989 Tiananmen Square uprising — and the (low) probability that this could trigger another revolution-minded uprising.
How will the coronavirus outbreak end?
February 6, 2020 | In 2015, Dr. Vineet Menachery said a SARS-like virus could spread to humans more easily than previously believed. Now he explains what we can do to stop it.
An AI warned about coronavirus before the CDC
February 4, 2020 | How AI could predict the next big outbreak.
You can check out our guide to news of the coronavirus outbreak here.


vox--2020-03-24--What it’s like for a doctor treating coronavirus, in one Twitter thread

The key to weathering the coronavirus pandemic will be to utilize social distancing and other techniques to “ flatten the curve ” and keep the health care system from becoming too overwhelmed at any one moment .
Except , in some places — including in the US — those systems already are .
Hospitals have only a limited number of ICU beds with which to treat patients with Covid-19 , the disease caused by the novel coronavirus , and hospital systems were generally unprepared for the pandemic .
Policymakers have started to try to increase capacity to handle the oncoming @ @ @ @ @ @ @ collapse of the system is still very possible .
And it ’ s not just equipment that ’ s in short supply — health care workers themselves are spread thin and overwhelmed .
In Italy , doctors have had to choose between patients for who gets put on a ventilator .
Elsewhere , medical personnel are begging for personal protective equipment like masks , face-shields , and gloves to treat the onslaught of infectious patients .
While we know what we need to do to support doctors , nurses , and other health @ @ @ @ @ @ @ pandemic , the everyday reality of caring for so many patients at once is sometimes difficult to report .
But in a viral tweet thread Tuesday , one emergency room doctor shed light on what is happening inside America ’ s hospitals and why it ’ s so important to follow the rules of social distancing in the first place .
Craig Spencer is the director of global health in emergency medicine at Columbia University ’ s Irving Medical Center and New York Presbyterian Hospital .
He mentions that he worked during an @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ago ( he was then isolated and treated for disease in the US ) and yet coronavirus scares him .
He ’ s been working around the clock treating patients in New York City , which is one of the hardest-hit cities in the US so far .
And he described a typical day as an ER doctor in the age of coronavirus in a recent viral tweet thread .
It starts , he says , when you walk in at 8 am and the previous shift hands off their cases to you @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ really worried about , ” who is “ very short of breath , on the maximum amount of oxygen we can give , but still breathing fast ” : You immediately assess this patient .
It ’ s clear what this is , and what needs to happen .
You have a long and honest discussion with the patient and family over the phone .
It ’ s best to put her on life support now , before things get much worse .
You ’ re getting set up for that , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ another really sick patient coming in .
You rush over .
They ’ re also extremely sick , vomiting .
They need to be put on life support as well .
You bring them back .
Two patients , in rooms right next to each other , both getting a breathing tube .
It ’ s not even 10am yet .
He talks about how doctors and staff have become intimately familiar with the symptoms of Covid-19 — cough , shortness of breath , fever — and he wonders about what happened to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ see before the pandemic .
You should read his thread in full : Do you work in health care ?
Vox wants to hear about your coronavirus experience .
Fill out this Google form to share your story .

The key to weathering the coronavirus pandemic will be to utilize social distancing and other techniques to “flatten the curve” and keep the health care system from becoming too overwhelmed at any one moment.
Except, in some places — including in the US — those systems already are.
Hospitals have only a limited number of ICU beds with which to treat patients with Covid-19, the disease caused by the novel coronavirus, and hospital systems were generally unprepared for the pandemic. Policymakers have started to try to increase capacity to handle the oncoming surge of cases, but a total collapse of the system is still very possible.
And it’s not just equipment that’s in short supply — health care workers themselves are spread thin and overwhelmed.
In Italy, doctors have had to choose between patients for who gets put on a ventilator. Elsewhere, medical personnel are begging for personal protective equipment like masks, face-shields, and gloves to treat the onslaught of infectious patients.
While we know what we need to do to support doctors, nurses, and other health care workers to adequately deal with the pandemic, the everyday reality of caring for so many patients at once is sometimes difficult to report.
But in a viral tweet thread Tuesday, one emergency room doctor shed light on what is happening inside America’s hospitals and why it’s so important to follow the rules of social distancing in the first place.
Craig Spencer is the director of global health in emergency medicine at Columbia University’s Irving Medical Center and New York Presbyterian Hospital. He mentions that he worked during an Ebola outbreak in West Africa several years ago (he was then isolated and treated for disease in the US) and yet coronavirus scares him. He’s been working around the clock treating patients in New York City, which is one of the hardest-hit cities in the US so far. And he described a typical day as an ER doctor in the age of coronavirus in a recent viral tweet thread.
It starts, he says, when you walk in at 8 am and the previous shift hands off their cases to you, including one patient they’re “really worried about,” who is “very short of breath, on the maximum amount of oxygen we can give, but still breathing fast”:
You immediately assess this patient. It’s clear what this is, and what needs to happen. You have a long and honest discussion with the patient and family over the phone. It’s best to put her on life support now, before things get much worse. You’re getting set up for that, but... You’re notified of another really sick patient coming in. You rush over. They’re also extremely sick, vomiting. They need to be put on life support as well. You bring them back. Two patients, in rooms right next to each other, both getting a breathing tube. It’s not even 10am yet.
He talks about how doctors and staff have become intimately familiar with the symptoms of Covid-19 — cough, shortness of breath, fever — and he wonders about what happened to the heart attack cases he used to see before the pandemic. You should read his thread in full:
Thank you everyone for your incredible messages of support and encouragement.♥
Many of you asked what it was like in the ER right now. I want to share a bit with you. Please RT:
A Day in the Life of an ER Doc - A Brief Dispatch from the #COVID19 Frontline: — Craig Spencer MD MPH (@Craig_A_Spencer) March 24, 2020
Wake up at 6:30am. Priority is making a big pot of coffee for the whole day, because the place by the hospital is closed. The Starbucks too. It's all closed.
On the walk, it feels like Sunday. No one is out. Might be the freezing rain. Or it's early. Regardless, that's good. — Craig Spencer MD MPH (@Craig_A_Spencer) March 24, 2020
Walk in for your 8am shift: Immediately struck by how the calm of the early morning city streets is immediately transformed. The bright fluorescent lights of the ER reflect off everyone's protective goggles. There is a cacophony of coughing. You stop. Mask up. Walk in. — Craig Spencer MD MPH (@Craig_A_Spencer) March 24, 2020
You take signout from the previous team, but nearly every patient is the same, young & old:
Cough, shortness of breath, fever.
They are really worried about one patient. Very short of breath, on the maximum amount of oxygen we can give, but still breathing fast. — Craig Spencer MD MPH (@Craig_A_Spencer) March 24, 2020
You immediately assess this patient. It's clear what this is, and what needs to happen. You have a long and honest discussion with the patient and family over the phone. It's best to put her on life support now, before things get much worse. You're getting set up for that, but... — Craig Spencer MD MPH (@Craig_A_Spencer) March 24, 2020
You're notified of another really sick patient coming in. You rush over. They're also extremely sick, vomiting. They need to be put on life support as well. You bring them back. Two patients, in rooms right next to each other, both getting a breathing tube. It's not even 10am yet — Craig Spencer MD MPH (@Craig_A_Spencer) March 24, 2020
For the rest of your shift, nearly every hour, you get paged:
Stat notification: Very sick patient, short of breath, fever. Oxygen 88%.
Stat notification: Low blood pressure, short of breath, low oxygen.
Stat notification: Low oxygen, can't breath. Fever.
All day... — Craig Spencer MD MPH (@Craig_A_Spencer) March 24, 2020
Sometime in the afternoon you recognize you haven't drank any water. You're afraid to take off the mask. It's the only thing that protects you. Surely you can last a little longer - in West Africa during Ebola, you spent hours in a hot suit without water. One more patient... — Craig Spencer MD MPH (@Craig_A_Spencer) March 24, 2020
By late afternoon, you need to eat. Restaurant across the street is closed. Right, everything is closed. But thankfully the hospital cafeteria is open. You grab something, wash your hands (twice), cautiously take off your mask, & eat as fast as you can. Go back. Mask up. Walk in. — Craig Spencer MD MPH (@Craig_A_Spencer) March 24, 2020
Nearly everyone you see today is the same. We assume everyone is #COVIDー19. We wear gowns, goggles, and masks at every encounter. All day. It's the only way to be safe. Where did all the heart attacks and appendicitis patients go? Its all COVID. — Craig Spencer MD MPH (@Craig_A_Spencer) March 24, 2020
When your shift ends, you sign out to the oncoming team. It's all #COVIDー19. Over the past week, we've all learned the signs - low oxygen, lymphopenia, elevated D-dimer.
You share concerns of friends throughout the city without PPE. Hospitals running out of ventilators. — Craig Spencer MD MPH (@Craig_A_Spencer) March 24, 2020
Before you leave, you wipe EVERYTHING down. Your phone. Your badge. Your wallet. Your coffee mug. All of it. Drown it in bleach. Everything in a bag. Take no chances.
Sure you got it all??? Wipe is down again. Can't be too careful. — Craig Spencer MD MPH (@Craig_A_Spencer) March 24, 2020
You walk out and take off your mask. You feel naked and exposed. It's still raining, but you want to walk home. Feels safer than the subway or bus, plus you need to decompress.
The streets are empty. This feels nothing like what is happening inside. Maybe people don't know??? — Craig Spencer MD MPH (@Craig_A_Spencer) March 24, 2020
You get home. You strip in the hallway (it's ok, your neighbors know what you do). Everything in a bag. Your wife tries to keep your toddler away, but she hasn't seen you in days, so it's really hard. Run to the shower. Rinse it all away. Never happier. Time for family. — Craig Spencer MD MPH (@Craig_A_Spencer) March 24, 2020
You reflect on the fact that it's really hard to understand how bad this is - and how bad its going to be - if all you see are empty streets.
Hospitals are nearing capacity. We are running out of ventilators. Ambulance sirens don't stop. — Craig Spencer MD MPH (@Craig_A_Spencer) March 24, 2020
Everyone we see today was infected a week ago, or more. The numbers will undoubtedly skyrocket overnight, as they have every night the past few days. More will come to the ER. More will be stat notifications. More will be put on a ventilator. — Craig Spencer MD MPH (@Craig_A_Spencer) March 24, 2020
We were too late to stop this virus. Full stop. But we can slow it's spread. The virus can't infect those it never meets. Stay inside. Social distancing is the only thing that will save us now. I don't care as much about the economic impact as I do about our ability to save lives — Craig Spencer MD MPH (@Craig_A_Spencer) March 24, 2020
You might hear people saying it isn't real. It is.
You might hear people saying it isn't bad. It is.
You might hear people saying it can't take you down. It can.
I survived Ebola. I fear #COVIDー19.
Do your part. Stay home. Stay safe.
And every day I'll come to work for you — Craig Spencer MD MPH (@Craig_A_Spencer) March 24, 2020
Do you work in health care? Vox wants to hear about your coronavirus experience. Fill out this Google form to share your story.