discoveryinstitute--2020-04-24--Five Possibly Unexpected Ways the Post-COVID Office Will Change

A number of experts have spent their quarantine thinking about how work life will change when we do finally go back .
But here ’ s a selection from the management literature of stop-and-think-how-this-affects-your-business predictions : 1 .
At Fast Company : Attending meetings by video conference won ’ t be seen as second rate any more : Jeff Richards , partner at the venture capital firm GGV Capital : … In the past , if you joined via video , you were thought of as “ mailing it in.
” Now it ’ s become an accepted form of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ we ’ ll see corporate travel [ come back ] , as nothing is better than an in-person meeting with a customer or exec hire candidate .
But for routine meetings , I think we are going to see a lot more video .
I also think Zoom has crossed the rubicon from “ corporate ” to “ consumer ” as everyone in my family age 5-75 now knows how to use it .
That ’ s a game-changer .
Mark Sullivan , “ All the things COVID-19 will change forever , according @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Company 2 .
The routinely maligned gig economy may look different now .
People who work from home tend to be affected by COVID shutdowns mainly insofar as those shutdowns affect others .
That is , if you are used to working on contract , receiving your specificatiions by e-mail , and interacting with colleagues by phone or videoconference , you are not experiencing the quarantines , social distancing , and layoffs as directly as is the office-bound , salaried employee .
One analyst notes , Jobs are steadily becoming more transient , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ meaningful connection in their work , and they are getting it more from their colleagues , long term career narrative , and the groups of people they attach themselves to , such as professional assocations and online communities related to their work… The gig economy has matured and is making significant inroads into the enterprise , offering far more flexible employement on both sides of the equation… Now that Gen Z has become the largest percentage of the workforce , at about 40 % this year , it will drive many of the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ comes to key elements of employee experience .
Gen Z ’ s top driver , for the first time in employment history , is not salary but control over work/life balance .
Dion Hinchcliffe , “ 2020 Predictions for the Future of Work ” at Constellation Research COVID-19 will probably broaden and accelerate this trend by spotlighting the now-empty downtown towers of the formal office structure that was ill-prepared to cope with the pandemic .
3 .
At Fast Company , again : The open office , once the Ultimate Cool , is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ : People can see a private cube as a prison but , alternatively , it is a protective shell .
Count on more people who must work in group settings to see it the latter way .
Future office ( and market ) settings will probably be designed with social distance in mind .
4 .
The new workplace tests the value of trust .
From consulting firm Gartner : “ Remote-work success depends heavily on whether you trust employees to do their work even if you can ’ t see them , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , Gartner .
Managers often worry about the lack of visibility into the workflows and routines of their direct reports when they work remotely .
In our snap poll , 76 % of HR leaders reported the top employee complaint during the coronavirus outbreak as “ concerns from managers about the productivity or engagement of their teams when remote .
“ But worries about employee productivity are often overblown , ” says McEwan .
Jackie Wiles , “ With Coronavirus in Mind , Is Your Organization Ready for Remote Work ?
” at @ @ @ @ @ @ @ overblown but perhaps some managers misunderstand the issues .
The remote worker is typically working in an environment where she is the person in charge if something affects her work .
If , for example , the water supply to an office building were shut off for the day during street repairs , a manager would likely co-ordinate .
But if the water supply to the remote worker ’ s home is shut off for the same reason , she must decide for herself how best to deal with it , while remaining @ @ @ @ @ @ @ assessing productivity would recognize overall , long-term output vs. costs in either case .
5 .
New protocols will develop for “ formal informal ” communications .
From Techradar : Longtime self-employed professionals will be familiar with the following kind of situation : You want to tell your client something but you don ’ t want to make a huge noise about it .
Let ’ s say your client provides products to educators .
You attended a school board meeting last night where you heard something that affects the client ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ want to convene a meeting , apparently criticize anyone , or pretend to be an expert .
You just want to pass on what you heard said there to someone in a position to decide if a response is justified .
Remote work arrangements need to be flexible and personal enough to allow for that kind of communication without creating a new set of risks , given that there may now be a record of all your communications with the client .
For better or worse , COVID-19 has put us on track @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on the internet .
We weren ’ t ready .
But one advantage of that situation is that we sometimes learn more deeply from situations we weren ’ t ready for than from the ones we has spent a lot of time preparing for .
For one thing , we know for sure what happens when we don ’ t do it .
We will never go back to the pre-COVID-19 workplace : The virus forced us to realize : Staying together apart has never been so easy .
( Jonathan Bartlett ) @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ?
Caution !
Robots don ’ t file for benefits but that ’ s not all we need to know about them .
( Brendan Dixon )

A number of experts have spent their quarantine thinking about how work life will change when we do finally go back. But here’s a selection from the management literature of stop-and-think-how-this-affects-your-business predictions:
1. At Fast Company: Attending meetings by video conference won’t be seen as second rate any more:
Jeff Richards, partner at the venture capital firm GGV Capital: … In the past, if you joined via video, you were thought of as “mailing it in.” Now it’s become an accepted form of participation. Net/net, I still think we’ll see corporate travel [come back], as nothing is better than an in-person meeting with a customer or exec hire candidate. But for routine meetings, I think we are going to see a lot more video. I also think Zoom has crossed the rubicon from “corporate” to “consumer” as everyone in my family age 5-75 now knows how to use it. That’s a game-changer. Mark Sullivan, “All the things COVID-19 will change forever, according to 30 top experts” at Fast Company
2. The routinely maligned gig economy may look different now. People who work from home tend to be affected by COVID shutdowns mainly insofar as those shutdowns affect others. That is, if you are used to working on contract, receiving your specifications by e-mail, and interacting with colleagues by phone or videoconference, you are not experiencing the quarantines, social distancing, and layoffs as directly as is the office-bound, salaried employee. One analyst notes,
Jobs are steadily becoming more transient, remote, and virtual. People want meaningful connection in their work, and they are getting it more from their colleagues, long term career narrative, and the groups of people they attach themselves to, such as professional assocations and online communities related to their work… The gig economy has matured and is making significant inroads into the enterprise, offering far more flexible employement on both sides of the equation… Now that Gen Z has become the largest percentage of the workforce, at about 40% this year, it will drive many of the largest policy and strategy decisions when it comes to key elements of employee experience. Gen Z’s top driver, for the first time in employment history, is not salary but control over work/life balance. Dion Hinchcliffe, “2020 Predictions for the Future of Work” at Constellation Research
COVID-19 will probably broaden and accelerate this trend by spotlighting the now-empty downtown towers of the formal office structure that was ill-prepared to cope with the pandemic.
3. At Fast Company, again: The open office, once the Ultimate Cool, is coming to be seen as Microbe Central:
Tim Bajarin, principal analyst at Creative Strategies: … I believe that this could signal the death of open space work environments. The experience with COVID-19 will for years make people more aware of working in shoulder-to-shoulder open offices where it is easy for viruses to spread. Mark Sullivan, “All the things COVID-19 will change forever, according to 30 top experts” at Fast Company
People can see a private cube as a prison but, alternatively, it is a protective shell. Count on more people who must work in group settings to see it the latter way. Future office (and market) settings will probably be designed with social distance in mind.
4. The new workplace tests the value of trust. From consulting firm Gartner:
“Remote-work success depends heavily on whether you trust employees to do their work even if you can’t see them,” says Aaron McEwan, Vice President, Gartner. Managers often worry about the lack of visibility into the workflows and routines of their direct reports when they work remotely. In our snap poll, 76% of HR leaders reported the top employee complaint during the coronavirus outbreak as “concerns from managers about the productivity or engagement of their teams when remote. “But worries about employee productivity are often overblown,” says McEwan. Jackie Wiles, “With Coronavirus in Mind, Is Your Organization Ready for Remote Work?” at Smarter with Gartner
Perhaps it’s overblown but perhaps some managers misunderstand the issues. The remote worker is typically working in an environment where she is the person in charge if something affects her work. If, for example, the water supply to an office building were shut off for the day during street repairs, a manager would likely co-ordinate. But if the water supply to the remote worker’s home is shut off for the same reason, she must decide for herself how best to deal with it, while remaining productive. A level playing field for assessing productivity would recognize overall, long-term output vs. costs in either case.
Lastly,
5. New protocols will develop for “formal informal” communications. From Techradar:
Companies need to create an atmosphere where employees feel at ease reaching out to colleagues through a video call or a chat function to talk about non-work topics – it’s the key to establishing real workplace friendships and building trust with newly remote co-workers. Managers can also use tactics such as an always-on video conference room per team, where team members can come and go as they want—this helps people get used to remote which can seem unnatural at first. Darren Murph, “Could remote working be the future of work?” at TechRadar
Longtime self-employed professionals will be familiar with the following kind of situation: You want to tell your client something but you don’t want to make a huge noise about it. Let’s say your client provides products to educators. You attended a school board meeting last night where you heard something that affects the client’s business. But you don’t want to convene a meeting, apparently criticize anyone, or pretend to be an expert. You just want to pass on what you heard said there to someone in a position to decide if a response is justified. Remote work arrangements need to be flexible and personal enough to allow for that kind of communication without creating a new set of risks, given that there may now be a record of all your communications with the client.
For better or worse, COVID-19 has put us on track to the long-predicted new economy that depends on the internet. We weren’t ready. But one advantage of that situation is that we sometimes learn more deeply from situations we weren’t ready for than from the ones we has spent a lot of time preparing for. For one thing, we know for sure what happens when we don’t do it.
Further reading:
We will never go back to the pre-COVID-19 workplace: The virus forced us to realize: Staying together apart has never been so easy. (Jonathan Bartlett)
and
Will the COVID-19 pandemic promote mass automation? Caution! Robots don’t file for benefits but that’s not all we need to know about them. (Brendan Dixon)


discoveryinstitute--2020-04-28--Post-COVID: Five Ways Your Job Could Change

Laid-off IT and creative workers recently vandalized the websites of Hollywood Reporter and Billboard .
Riffing off a theme from a 1978 movie , Animal House , starring John Belushi , the workers changed the copy to read , “ “ The online Billboard Charts are essentially perfect , so IT staff are no longer needed .
Fat drunk and stupid is no way to go through life… ” ( Matt Novak , Gizmodo ) Well , that ’ s one way to respond .
But it probably won ’ t convince the employer that a mistake was made… The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ eye on these five trends : We are told at Forbes to expect both more jobs and more automation in the post-COVID economy because , surprising as it might seem , the two actually go together : Innovations create markets for new skills , for example , designing , manufacturing , and selling accounting software and teaching people how to use it .
These new jobs are usually more interesting and pay better .
2 .
Stuff to keep an eye on The current craze for tracking everything we do could get way @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , done in the name of optimization , is growing in popularity at the office .
Take Crossover Worksmart—software marketed as a tool for keeping tabs on remote workers .
It monitors keyboard activity and application usage and takes periodic screenshots and even webcam photos of workers to create what the company calls a “ digital timecard ” every 10 minutes .
“ It ’ s intended to be ensuring that people are getting paid for productive time , ” says Crossover founder and CEO Andy Tryba .
“ And if it ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ you don ’ t actually get paid for that time.
” Tryba believes that hard metrics can determine how much work is getting done .
“ Banging away on the keyboard and mouse , ” for instance , is an indicator of being productive , he says .
Screenshots , meanwhile , take the place of “ management by walking around , ” so bosses can see exactly what employees are up to .
Sean Captain , “ This is what our working lives will look like in 2040 ” at Fast Company @ @ @ @ @ @ @ maybe he is right .
But the jobs that can ’ t be automated aren ’ t like that .
Micromanagement will probably cause more people to see the value of self-employment .
Working for The Machine is not an improvement over working for The Man .
Incidentally , in a similar way , the use of location data to track the possible spread of COVID could mainstream the idea that government has a right to know where we are at any given time , even if we are doing nothing wrong or @ @ @ @ @ @ @ good , of course .
3.Stuff to watch out for : According to cybsecurity expert Scott Watnik , as many more people work from their homes , cybercriminals who would otherwise target businesses are stalking the remote workers instead : Businesses need to understand that because the vast majority of the global work force has transitioned from the office to the home , so too have the parameters of a business ’ cybersecurity risk .
“ Now when people are working from home , they ’ re distracted , ” Watnik explained , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ four-year-old running around .
“ TVs are on ; there ’ s a lot of chaos and no IT personnel to walk into everyone ’ s office , look at their computers and remind them of what ’ s going on .
People are afraid and panicked due to the global environment right now , and that just makes them more susceptible to lowering their cybersecurity defenses.
” Cyberattacks are much more likely to be fatal to small concerns than large ones .
Post-COVID , we may still be working at home much @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and policies that seriously include their remote workers .
4 .
Stuff that just wasn ’ t happening at the office Internet trolls were not typically much of a problem back in suit world .
But it hasn ’ t taken trolls long to discover the fun of Zoombombing : Jerks are using Zoom ’ s screensharing feature to blast other viewers with the most awful videos from across the internet , from violence to shocking pornography .
That ’ s just what happened today on the WFH Happy Hour , a popular @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Verge reporter Casey Newton and investor Hunter Walk .
Suddenly , dozens of attendees were bombarded with disturbing imagery .
A troll entered the call and screenshared… horrifying sexual videos .
Attempts to block the attack were thwarted as the perpetrator simply re-entered the call under a new name and screenshared more gross-out clips .
The hosts ended the call rather than subject viewers to the assault until they could stop it .
Josh Constine , “ Beware of ‘ ZoomBombing ’ : screensharing filth to video calls ” at TechCrunch ( March @ @ @ @ @ @ @ tech mavens too… Zoom , a comparatively informal service , was more vulnerable to trolls than competitors were ( a fact that competitors have encouraged the world to know , of course ) .
But Zoom , facing a backlash and threatened lawsuits , has since taken steps to correct the problem .
The takehome point is that , while vulnerable systems can be tweaked , remote work styles will continue to create opportunities for trolls and other disruptors just as they do for cybercrime .
It ’ s only funny when it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ t know .
5 .
Saving the best for last , the COVID-19 crisis has tended to reward creative and innovative thinkers .
For example , some librarians offer parking lot wi-fi and Zoom storytime when the library is shut .
Innovative filmmakers find ways to shoot scenes entirely in quarantine .
Small animal vets greatly expanded telehealth services—just ahead of the discovery that cats are vulnerable to COVID .
Innovations don ’ t just go away ; we can continue to build on them because there will always be people who need @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of us don ’ t .
And we know that we can develop those innovations .
This is a good time to be a creative thinker and innovator .
But what if you find you can ’ t live without the clatter and clutter of the office ?
You can reproduce the sounds in the background at home for free : This office is much quieter .
This one is way noisier .
Yes indeed .
Have it all .
Though not all at once .
Further reading : Five possibly unexpected ways @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ ll all know more about working at home than we ever thought we would .
Some managers worry that remote employees will not be productive .
They don ’ t always consider that the remote worker is the person in charge if something affects her work .
For example , in an office building , if the water is shut off due to a street repair , a manager would likely co-ordinate .
But at home , the worker must decide for herself how best to deal with it , while remaining @ @ @ @ @ @ @ recognize overall long-term output vs. costs in either case .

Laid-off IT and creative workers recently vandalized the websites of Hollywood Reporter and Billboard. Riffing off a theme from a 1978 movie, Animal House, starring John Belushi, the workers changed the copy to read, ““The online Billboard Charts are essentially perfect, so IT staff are no longer needed. Fat drunk and stupid is no way to go through life…” (Matt Novak, Gizmodo)
Well, that’s one way to respond. But it probably won’t convince the employer that a mistake was made…
The rest of us might well keep an eye on these five trends:
1. More jobs, more automation
We are told at Forbes to expect both more jobs and more automation in the post-COVID economy because, surprising as it might seem, the two actually go together:
Most well-known automation technologies never replaced humans; instead they took over tedious, dangerous and onerous tasks. In 1885 William Burroughs, for instance, didn’t wipe out accountants’ jobs with his calculating machine. The new inventions eliminated the long hours of tedious addition. He innovated the machine because he was tired of the long hours it took to do his job. The resulting machine and commercial entity based on this innovation is the DNA of Unisys, the multi-billion dollar IT company. Shahin Farshchi, “Expect More Jobs And More Automation In The Post-COVID-19 Economy” at Forbes
Innovations create markets for new skills, for example, designing, manufacturing, and selling accounting software and teaching people how to use it. These new jobs are usually more interesting and pay better.
2. Stuff to keep an eye on
The current craze for tracking everything we do could get way, way out of hand:
Monitoring, done in the name of optimization, is growing in popularity at the office. Take Crossover Worksmart—software marketed as a tool for keeping tabs on remote workers. It monitors keyboard activity and application usage and takes periodic screenshots and even webcam photos of workers to create what the company calls a “digital timecard” every 10 minutes. “It’s intended to be ensuring that people are getting paid for productive time,” says Crossover founder and CEO Andy Tryba. “And if it’s nonproductive time . . . then you don’t actually get paid for that time.” Tryba believes that hard metrics can determine how much work is getting done. “Banging away on the keyboard and mouse,” for instance, is an indicator of being productive, he says. Screenshots, meanwhile, take the place of “management by walking around,” so bosses can see exactly what employees are up to. Sean Captain, “This is what our working lives will look like in 2040 ” at Fast Company
If all anyone needs is keystrokes, maybe he is right. But the jobs that can’t be automated aren’t like that. Micromanagement will probably cause more people to see the value of self-employment. Working for The Machine is not an improvement over working for The Man.
Incidentally, in a similar way, the use of location data to track the possible spread of COVID could mainstream the idea that government has a right to know where we are at any given time, even if we are doing nothing wrong or out of the ordinary—all for our own good, of course.
3.Stuff to watch out for:
According to cybsecurity expert Scott Watnik, as many more people work from their homes, cybercriminals who would otherwise target businesses are stalking the remote workers instead:
Businesses need to understand that because the vast majority of the global work force has transitioned from the office to the home, so too have the parameters of a business’ cybersecurity risk. “Now when people are working from home, they’re distracted,” Watnik explained, adding that he personally has a restless four-year-old running around. “TVs are on; there’s a lot of chaos and no IT personnel to walk into everyone’s office, look at their computers and remind them of what’s going on. People are afraid and panicked due to the global environment right now, and that just makes them more susceptible to lowering their cybersecurity defenses.” Ginger Hill, “Cybercriminals target remote workers during pandemic” at Security Systems News
Cyberattacks are much more likely to be fatal to small concerns than large ones. Post-COVID, we may still be working at home much more, so businesses need security plans and policies that seriously include their remote workers.
4. Stuff that just wasn’t happening at the office
Internet trolls were not typically much of a problem back in suit world. But it hasn’t taken trolls long to discover the fun of Zoombombing:
Jerks are using Zoom’s screensharing feature to blast other viewers with the most awful videos from across the internet, from violence to shocking pornography. That’s just what happened today on the WFH Happy Hour, a popular daily public Zoom call hosted by The Verge reporter Casey Newton and investor Hunter Walk. Suddenly, dozens of attendees were bombarded with disturbing imagery. A troll entered the call and screenshared… horrifying sexual videos. Attempts to block the attack were thwarted as the perpetrator simply re-entered the call under a new name and screenshared more gross-out clips. The hosts ended the call rather than subject viewers to the assault until they could stop it. Josh Constine, “Beware of ‘ZoomBombing’: screensharing filth to video calls” at TechCrunch (March 17, 2020)
And these were tech mavens too…
Zoom, a comparatively informal service, was more vulnerable to trolls than competitors were (a fact that competitors have encouraged the world to know, of course). But Zoom, facing a backlash and threatened lawsuits, has since taken steps to correct the problem.
The takehome point is that, while vulnerable systems can be tweaked, remote work styles will continue to create opportunities for trolls and other disruptors just as they do for cybercrime. It’s only funny when it is happening to someone we don’t know.
5. Saving the best for last, the COVID-19 crisis has tended to reward creative and innovative thinkers.
For example, some librarians offer parking lot wi-fi and Zoom storytime when the library is shut. Innovative filmmakers find ways to shoot scenes entirely in quarantine. Small animal vets greatly expanded telehealth services—just ahead of the discovery that cats are vulnerable to COVID. Innovations don’t just go away; we can continue to build on them because there will always be people who need an alternative strategy even after the rest of us don’t. And we know that we can develop those innovations. This is a good time to be a creative thinker and innovator.
But what if you find you can’t live without the clatter and clutter of the office? You can reproduce the sounds in the background at home for free:
This office is much quieter. This one is way noisier.
Yes indeed. Have it all. Though not all at once.
Further reading: Five possibly unexpected ways the post-COVID office will change. We’ll all know more about working at home than we ever thought we would. Some managers worry that remote employees will not be productive. They don’t always consider that the remote worker is the person in charge if something affects her work. For example, in an office building, if the water is shut off due to a street repair, a manager would likely co-ordinate. But at home, the worker must decide for herself how best to deal with it, while remaining productive. A level playing field would recognize overall long-term output vs. costs in either case.


discoveryinstitute--2020-04-27--Why Does COVID-19 Target the Northern Hemisphere?

Like the grim reaper , COVID-19 is menacing the world , bring economies to a standstill and pushing the “ free countries ” to adopt the tactics of authoritarian regimes .
Originally promised to last only a few weeks , the lockdowns are drawing into potentially months .
A further concern has arisen ; there may be multiple waves , as happened with the Spanish flu , where the second and third waves were even more deadly .
If COVID-19 is a pandemic , there seems to be no escape .
But , is it really a global pandemic ?
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ news , you might notice that some areas of the world are oddly absent from the reporting .
Wouldn ’ t we expect the disease to rip through the most densely packed and least developed countries ?
Instead , the virus has mostly shut down some of the most advanced nations , which in turn only represent a small portion of the world ’ s population .
How can we explain this oddity ?
Well , let ’ s look at a graph of covid-19 death rates by latitude : The graph above @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the Google front page statistics for coronavirus cases and deaths on April 4 .
The materials used in creating the graph are here .
Countries were matched to their latitudes and countries with fewer than 500 cases were removed from the dataset .
The result shows a best fit quadratic curve .
It turns out , the quadratic curve has a much greater statistical significance than a normal linear regression .
First of all , COVID-19 clearly does not attack the globe uniformly by latitude .
The second standout feature is that it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ bizarre .
How can a disease ’ s spread be affected by hemisphere , let alone latitude ?
That is not a statistical fluke because the graph comprises 198 different countries and the best fit quadratic curve parameters have statistical significance scores of 0.12 , 0.07 and 0.0000016 for the x^2 , x and c components respectively .
What was the big difference between the hemispheres when the data was pulled ?
Due to the northern hemisphere bias of much of the internet , many information seekers will overlook the fact that it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the southern hemisphere .
How could that affect the COVID-19 death rates ?
The disease virus is a variant within the same group as cold viruses and the cold virus is destroyed by heat .
Is COVID-19 vulnerable to heat ?
It is worth asking whether that explains the lower mortality rate near the equator and in the southern hemisphere .
At any rate , given how little we know about COVID-19 , we should acknowledge the unknown unknowns before drawing firm conclusions on the subject .
Post-COVID , five ways your job @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to be a creative thinker and innovator .
Many COVID-driven innovations will likely endure , whether it ’ s vets doing telehealth , trolls harassing Zoom users , or cybercriminals targeting remote workers , the new opportunities and risks will stay with us .
( Denyse O ’ Leary ) COVID-19 : Getting to the bottom of what happened in China : China knowingly violated the terms of a World Health Organization ( WHO ) disclosure agreement .
It is widely recognized that medical professionals and journalists in China are being silenced if @ @ @ @ @ @ @ contradicts the ruling Chinese Communist Party ’ s official narrative .
But now mainland Chinese scientists must ensure that their research publications also toe the CCP party line .
If we sift carefully , however , we can uncover real information .
( Heather Zeiger ) COVID-19 : When 900 bytes shut down the world .
A great physicist warned us , information precedes matter and energy : Bit before it .
The COVID-19 virus contains about as much information as a sticker in WhatsApp .
Walter Bradley Center director Robert J .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ a dreadful truth : “ Human biology is so finely tuned that less than a kilobyte of information can stop the world .
”

Like the grim reaper, COVID-19 is menacing the world, bring economies to a standstill and pushing the “free countries” to adopt the tactics of authoritarian regimes. Originally promised to last only a few weeks, the lockdowns are drawing into potentially months. A further concern has arisen; there may be multiple waves, as happened with the Spanish flu, where the second and third waves were even more deadly. If COVID-19 is a pandemic, there seems to be no escape.
But, is it really a global pandemic? If you’ve been watching the news, you might notice that some areas of the world are oddly absent from the reporting. Wouldn’t we expect the disease to rip through the most densely packed and least developed countries? Instead, the virus has mostly shut down some of the most advanced nations, which in turn only represent a small portion of the world’s population. How can we explain this oddity? Well, let’s look at a graph of covid-19 death rates by latitude:
The graph above was generated from data I took from the Google front page statistics for coronavirus cases and deaths on April 4. The materials used in creating the graph are here. Countries were matched to their latitudes and countries with fewer than 500 cases were removed from the dataset. The result shows a best fit quadratic curve. It turns out, the quadratic curve has a much greater statistical significance than a normal linear regression.
First of all, COVID-19 clearly does not attack the globe uniformly by latitude. The second standout feature is that it targets the northern hemisphere. This is bizarre. How can a disease’s spread be affected by hemisphere, let alone latitude? That is not a statistical fluke because the graph comprises 198 different countries and the best fit quadratic curve parameters have statistical significance scores of 0.12, 0.07 and 0.0000016 for the x^2, x and c components respectively.
What was the big difference between the hemispheres when the data was pulled? Due to the northern hemisphere bias of much of the internet, many information seekers will overlook the fact that it is nearing the end of summer in the southern hemisphere.
How could that affect the COVID-19 death rates? The disease virus is a variant within the same group as cold viruses and the cold virus is destroyed by heat. Is COVID-19 vulnerable to heat? It is worth asking whether that explains the lower mortality rate near the equator and in the southern hemisphere. At any rate, given how little we know about COVID-19, we should acknowledge the unknown unknowns before drawing firm conclusions on the subject.
Further reading on COVID-19:
Post-COVID, five ways your job could change This is a good time to be a creative thinker and innovator.
Many COVID-driven innovations will likely endure, whether it’s vets doing telehealth, trolls harassing Zoom users, or cybercriminals targeting remote workers, the new opportunities and risks will stay with us. (Denyse O’Leary)
COVID-19: Getting to the bottom of what happened in China: China knowingly violated the terms of a World Health Organization (WHO) disclosure agreement. It is widely recognized that medical professionals and journalists in China are being silenced if they publish any information about COVID-19 that contradicts the ruling Chinese Communist Party’s official narrative. But now mainland Chinese scientists must ensure that their research publications also toe the CCP party line. If we sift carefully, however, we can uncover real information. (Heather Zeiger)
and
COVID-19: When 900 bytes shut down the world. A great physicist warned us, information precedes matter and energy: Bit before it. The COVID-19 virus contains about as much information as a sticker in WhatsApp. Walter Bradley Center director Robert J. Marks and Dr. Daniel Andrés Díaz-Pachón explore a dreadful truth: “Human biology is so finely tuned that less than a kilobyte of information can stop the world.”


discoveryinstitute--2020-04-24--‘It’s the Bond Between All of Us That Holds Us Together’

‘ It ’ s the Bond Between All of Us That Holds Us Together ’ America Lost documentary sheds lights on importance of the bonds of faith , family and community amid social distancing .
The fabric of American society is coming apart at the seams .
Numerous books , editorials and podcasts have testified to that fact .
Now , with federally recommended and state-mandated social distancing , communal bonds are simultaneously more strained and more urgently needed .
Faith becomes something practiced privately or livestreamed .
Family may feel smothered when sheltering together , distant if sheltering apart @ @ @ @ @ @ @ anything , it has shown , by dint of absence and suspension , how important social bonds are .
In reestablishing them , one could hardly look for better inspiration than Christopher Rufo ’ s America Lost .
Rufo , a filmmaker , writer and director of the Discovery Institute ’ s Center on Wealth & Poverty , spent five years on the legwork for this , his fourth film .
He lived in Youngstown , Ohio ; Memphis , Tennessee ; and Stockton , California , getting to know their residents : @ @ @ @ @ @ @ daughters as a single mom and selling meals to get by ; Nicki , facing the tough decision of staying in her dying town with her mom or leaving to find a better life ; and Todd , who scavenges abandoned houses for scrap metal and materials to create artwork .
As Rufo follows his subjects through the film , he weaves their stories into a narrative at once bleak and hopeful .
“ These cities are places infused with a deep history , ” Rufo told the Register .
“ In all @ @ @ @ @ @ @ period in the 1950s that people still remember , even in communities that had been marginalized through poverty or segregation .
Then things started falling apart , first economically , then socially , then spiritually .
When those structures are gone , you start to see the greed , corruption , violence , despair , all of those dark parts of human nature.
” The focus on Youngstown , Memphis and Stockton was deliberate .
Rufo wanted to represent “ all of the cities of the American interior .
Youngstown is a white @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Southern city , and Stockton is a multiracial Western city .
They are three cities that aren ’ t on everyone ’ s radar and don ’ t come with many preconceptions .
They could easily be Braddock , Flint and Newark .
Collectively , they represent all of the ‘ forgotten cities ’ throughout the United States.
” In the film , Rufo argues that these forgotten cities are harbingers of America ’ s future , calling Youngstown in particular “ a symbol of what ’ s to come.
” “ We @ @ @ @ @ @ @ but this is the first time our social institutions have collapsed as well .
At heart , the crisis in America ’ s forgotten cities is a crisis of meaning .
All of the old structures that once provided a solid foundation — faith , family , work , community — have slowly fallen apart .
The real problem is not just economic , but deeply personal — human , even spiritual.
” The human crisis is severe .
One interviewer , talking to an older Memphis lady whose grandchildren are playing by @ @ @ @ @ @ @ she fears for her safety in the rundown neighborhood .
“ Yeah , ” she says , and nods for a few seconds .
“ And I had a big dog , but somebody killed him ; somebody poisoned him.
” “ How do you protect yourself ?
” the interviewer asks .
The grandmother , in her response , invokes Providence .
She smiles faintly .
“ Well , I mostly rely on faith .
I figure like , if I ’ m a good person , God ain ’ t gon @ @ @ @ @ @ @ t supposed to happen , and if it happened , it was time , or it was supposed to happen , ’ cause he don ’ t make no mistakes.
” Another of the film ’ s subjects , a young man named Joseph , has a different take on the principles at work .
“ One thing about being here in the city , if you ’ re poor , you ’ re poor .
If you have , then , more than likely you have more than enough .
It ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , man .
It ’ s survival of the fittest.
” Having invoked that Darwinian principle , Joseph himself fails to survive .
The film ’ s epilogue says that he “ was arrested for felony assault and returned to prison.
” But many of the stories Rufo tells have happier endings .
Contrina , single-parenting her two daughters — one with an absent father , the other with a father in jail — reflects on her own father ’ s incarceration and tells her girls , “ I just wan na break @ @ @ @ @ @ @ you to finish school , finish high school ; college is a must ; get married before having kids .
I wish the best for you all.
” Another of the film ’ s subjects , Michael , struggling to overcome a checkered past , ultimately finds full-time work to support his wife and two children .
And it ’ s Michael , holding his newborn son , who voices the moral of Rufo ’ s story .
Describing how he wants his boy to avoid the suffering that he went through , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ : “ And that way in the end , [ my son ] lives .
He lives for us , his family , you know ?
And we all live for each other .
Because in this world , that ’ s all we ’ ve got .
It ’ s the bond between all of us that holds us together.
” Family is one bond ; faith is another .
In the film , Rufo says that “ faith-based organizations are still the cornerstone of poor communities .
In places like Stockton @ @ @ @ @ @ @ remaining institutions that offer a clear sense of meaning , purpose and community.
” Faith , community , family — these are what lead men like Michael to let go of what he calls “ that life out there in the streets : being on welfare , being on food stamps , living that kind of life , and really struggling.
” Michael says it was an inner rather than an outer compulsion that changed his life : “ I think that it ’ s something instinctively inside myself , inside of all @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ; you wan na provide .
And I want there to be a time when my children can look to me and say , ‘ That ’ s my dad , and I ’ m proud.
’ ” Rufo picks up on this theme and makes it central to his documentary , arguing that solidarity is not something that can be engineered , but rather something that must grow from the ground up .
In voice-over , Rufo elaborates on Michael ’ s insights .
“ We ’ ve tried to solve our @ @ @ @ @ @ @ I ’ ve learned that real change doesn ’ t happen from the top down ; it happens from the inside out .
It starts within each individual human heart , then slowly works its way outward to families , neighbors and communities .
The solution for our forgotten cities is not just to revive their economies , but to create a new foundation for our fractured postmodern world .
We must rediscover the traditional sources of meaning — faith , family , work and community — and adapt them to the modern @ @ @ @ @ @ @ illustration of the importance of subsidiary institutions does not let its viewers off the hook .
Rufo is not selling the idea that people can pull themselves up by their own bootstraps .
On the contrary , he suggests that viewers inspired by the film take its message home to their own communities .
He told the Register what people should do : “ Listen .
Form a relationship .
Offer your emotional support .
It ’ s about creating personal bonds and leading by example .
Most of the people who are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ up to fail by their parents , their neighborhood , their school and their community .
But in almost every case , they have a clear sense of what needs to be rebuilt .
They have an instinctual moral understanding of how the world should be .
For those of us on the outside , it ’ s our job to listen to them , lift up this vision , and clear the way so it can happen .
And first , we have to stop thinking that ‘ we ’ — educated @ @ @ @ @ @ @ answer is for ‘ them.
’ That has n't worked out , and I think we need to find another model.
” That solution in some ways helps America Lost stand out amid the recent spate of social-science books and films on the declining American dream .
The other thing that helps the film stand out is its specificity .
Rufo told the Register , “ It ’ s one thing to look at a graph of American decline ; it ’ s another to see it , feel it and hear it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to capture the emotions of these places , the heartbreak , the complex character dynamics , and the visual impressions of these places.
” This strength of the film may also , in a sense , be its weakness .
Where authors use charts and graphs to illustrate their claims , Rufo ’ s genre is necessarily — but not , he insists , merely — anecdotal .
“ Family and religion have been the foundation of the human experience forever , ” he told the Register .
“ Social science is less @ @ @ @ @ @ @ it astonishing that people still believe that the answer to fundamental social problems can be found through applied social science .
The track record isn ’ t very good .
If you don ’ t have a functioning system of family , faith and local community , the policies really don ’ t matter ; the society is gone .
So I recommend that you start at the heart of things , in the places where you have actual agency — your family , your neighborhood , your city — and go from @ @ @ @ @ @ @ film via download at AmericaLostFilm.com , or through Amazon .

The fabric of American society is coming apart at the seams. Numerous books, editorials and podcasts have testified to that fact. Now, with federally recommended and state-mandated social distancing, communal bonds are simultaneously more strained and more urgently needed. Faith becomes something practiced privately or livestreamed. Family may feel smothered when sheltering together, distant if sheltering apart. If the COVID-19 crisis has illustrated anything, it has shown, by dint of absence and suspension, how important social bonds are. In reestablishing them, one could hardly look for better inspiration than Christopher Rufo’s America Lost.
Rufo, a filmmaker, writer and director of the Discovery Institute’s Center on Wealth & Poverty, spent five years on the legwork for this, his fourth film. He lived in Youngstown, Ohio; Memphis, Tennessee; and Stockton, California, getting to know their residents: people like Contrina, raising her two daughters as a single mom and selling meals to get by; Nicki, facing the tough decision of staying in her dying town with her mom or leaving to find a better life; and Todd, who scavenges abandoned houses for scrap metal and materials to create artwork. As Rufo follows his subjects through the film, he weaves their stories into a narrative at once bleak and hopeful.
“These cities are places infused with a deep history,” Rufo told the Register. “In all three cities, there was an Edenic period in the 1950s that people still remember, even in communities that had been marginalized through poverty or segregation. Then things started falling apart, first economically, then socially, then spiritually. When those structures are gone, you start to see the greed, corruption, violence, despair, all of those dark parts of human nature.”
Interior Focus
The focus on Youngstown, Memphis and Stockton was deliberate. Rufo wanted to represent “all of the cities of the American interior. Youngstown is a white Northern city, Memphis is a black Southern city, and Stockton is a multiracial Western city. They are three cities that aren’t on everyone’s radar and don’t come with many preconceptions. They could easily be Braddock, Flint and Newark. Collectively, they represent all of the ‘forgotten cities’ throughout the United States.”
In the film, Rufo argues that these forgotten cities are harbingers of America’s future, calling Youngstown in particular “a symbol of what’s to come.”
“We’ve had economic changes before, but this is the first time our social institutions have collapsed as well. At heart, the crisis in America’s forgotten cities is a crisis of meaning. All of the old structures that once provided a solid foundation — faith, family, work, community — have slowly fallen apart. The real problem is not just economic, but deeply personal — human, even spiritual.”
The human crisis is severe. One interviewer, talking to an older Memphis lady whose grandchildren are playing by her in the yard, asks if she fears for her safety in the rundown neighborhood. “Yeah,” she says, and nods for a few seconds. “And I had a big dog, but somebody killed him; somebody poisoned him.”
“How do you protect yourself?” the interviewer asks.
The grandmother, in her response, invokes Providence. She smiles faintly. “Well, I mostly rely on faith. I figure like, if I’m a good person, God ain’t gonna let nothing happen that wasn’t supposed to happen, and if it happened, it was time, or it was supposed to happen, ’cause he don’t make no mistakes.”
Another of the film’s subjects, a young man named Joseph, has a different take on the principles at work. “One thing about being here in the city, if you’re poor, you’re poor. If you have, then, more than likely you have more than enough. It’s really just survival of the fittest, man. It’s survival of the fittest.” Having invoked that Darwinian principle, Joseph himself fails to survive. The film’s epilogue says that he “was arrested for felony assault and returned to prison.”
Edifying Endings
But many of the stories Rufo tells have happier endings.
Contrina, single-parenting her two daughters — one with an absent father, the other with a father in jail — reflects on her own father’s incarceration and tells her girls, “I just wanna break that cycle. First, I want you to finish school, finish high school; college is a must; get married before having kids. I wish the best for you all.”
Another of the film’s subjects, Michael, struggling to overcome a checkered past, ultimately finds full-time work to support his wife and two children. And it’s Michael, holding his newborn son, who voices the moral of Rufo’s story. Describing how he wants his boy to avoid the suffering that he went through, Michael paints a picture of familial solidarity: “And that way in the end, [my son] lives. He lives for us, his family, you know? And we all live for each other. Because in this world, that’s all we’ve got. It’s the bond between all of us that holds us together.”
Family is one bond; faith is another. In the film, Rufo says that “faith-based organizations are still the cornerstone of poor communities. In places like Stockton, inner-city churches are often the only remaining institutions that offer a clear sense of meaning, purpose and community.”
Faith, community, family — these are what lead men like Michael to let go of what he calls “that life out there in the streets: being on welfare, being on food stamps, living that kind of life, and really struggling.”
Michael says it was an inner rather than an outer compulsion that changed his life: “I think that it’s something instinctively inside myself, inside of all men: that you wanna work; you wanna provide. And I want there to be a time when my children can look to me and say, ‘That’s my dad, and I’m proud.’” Rufo picks up on this theme and makes it central to his documentary, arguing that solidarity is not something that can be engineered, but rather something that must grow from the ground up.
In voice-over, Rufo elaborates on Michael’s insights. “We’ve tried to solve our problems through top-down public policies, but I’ve learned that real change doesn’t happen from the top down; it happens from the inside out. It starts within each individual human heart, then slowly works its way outward to families, neighbors and communities. The solution for our forgotten cities is not just to revive their economies, but to create a new foundation for our fractured postmodern world. We must rediscover the traditional sources of meaning — faith, family, work and community — and adapt them to the modern condition.”
Community Everywhere
But the film’s illustration of the importance of subsidiary institutions does not let its viewers off the hook. Rufo is not selling the idea that people can pull themselves up by their own bootstraps. On the contrary, he suggests that viewers inspired by the film take its message home to their own communities.
He told the Register what people should do: “Listen. Form a relationship. Offer your emotional support. It’s about creating personal bonds and leading by example. Most of the people who are living on the edge have been set up to fail by their parents, their neighborhood, their school and their community. But in almost every case, they have a clear sense of what needs to be rebuilt. They have an instinctual moral understanding of how the world should be. For those of us on the outside, it’s our job to listen to them, lift up this vision, and clear the way so it can happen. And first, we have to stop thinking that ‘we’ — educated people, policymakers — know what the answer is for ‘them.’ That hasn't worked out, and I think we need to find another model.”
That solution in some ways helps America Lost stand out amid the recent spate of social-science books and films on the declining American dream. The other thing that helps the film stand out is its specificity. Rufo told the Register, “It’s one thing to look at a graph of American decline; it’s another to see it, feel it and hear it, right up close. I tried to capture the emotions of these places, the heartbreak, the complex character dynamics, and the visual impressions of these places.”
This strength of the film may also, in a sense, be its weakness. Where authors use charts and graphs to illustrate their claims, Rufo’s genre is necessarily — but not, he insists, merely — anecdotal.
“Family and religion have been the foundation of the human experience forever,” he told the Register. “Social science is less than 200 years old. I find it astonishing that people still believe that the answer to fundamental social problems can be found through applied social science. The track record isn’t very good. If you don’t have a functioning system of family, faith and local community, the policies really don’t matter; the society is gone. So I recommend that you start at the heart of things, in the places where you have actual agency — your family, your neighborhood, your city — and go from there.”
Sophia M. Feingold writes from Florida.
WATCH
Interested readers can view the film via download at AmericaLostFilm.com, or through Amazon.
Further Reading
Coming Apart, Charles Murray
Alienated America, Tim Carney
Hillbilly Elegy, J.D. Vance
Bowling Alone, Robert Putnam
The Benedict Option, Rod Dreher


discoveryinstitute--2020-04-28--Five Ways COVID-19 Is Changing Education for Good

Recently , a Harvard prof chose to launch an attack on homeschoolers , portraying them as driven by narrow religious concerns .
Law professor Elizabeth Bartholet ’ s Harvard Magazine-length putdown hit precisely when millions of parents now homeschool— or at least supervise their children ’ s remote learning—whether they like it or not .
Mike McShane spoke for many when he characterized the attack as “ lazy ” : Harvard ’ s Kennedy School has—possibly recognizing Harvard Magazine ’ s apparent cultural tunelessness—responded by launching a Zoom meeting titled The Disinformation Campaign against Homeschooling ( May 1 , 2020 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ dishonest attacks on homeschooling that have been pervasive in the media and academia and also address the failures of public education.
” A good call .
Attacks on homeschooling , often launched by interests favorable to massive teachers ’ unions , were more understandable back when it was just some parents ’ choice in a free market .
Meanwhile , five trends to watch : 1.Parent–teacher co-operation is becoming critical , not just desirable .
Instead of disparaging homeschooling , many classroom teachers have begun offering advice to parents who have been conscripted @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Hanson suggests , given that many resources are available , parents relax and farm out the areas that are just not their best strengths , with so many online resources now available : Unless you love exploring math with your kids , go easy on yourself with this one .
And since most parents are unfamiliar with — and even afraid or suspicious of — the current approaches to math , you ’ re really off the hook here .
Luckily , there are many high quality online resources for math , such @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Younger kids can use flash cards to maintain or build automaticity with their math facts , and they can do it on their own , without an adult or a computer .
Terri Peters , “ Teacher : ‘ You don ’ t have to strive for perfection ’ when homeschooling your kids ” at Today 2.Creative internet use is getting around quarantines .
Parents , students , and teachers worldwide have been finding ways to use the internet for subjects they would never have considered before : 3.The “ digital divide ” @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , as illustrated by the plight of a rural student in the COVID-19 shutdown in Washington state : Medina is one of millions of people in the US who lack reliable broadband internet at home , either because they can ’ t afford it or because it simply isn ’ t available where they live .
This digital divide has always left children and adults alike with fewer educational and economic opportunities .
This digital divide has always left children and adults alike with fewer educational and economic opportunities .
But with schools @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the coronavirus pandemic , those without broadband are struggling to access schoolwork , job listings , unemployment benefit applications , and video chat services that others use to keep in touch with friends and family .
For those on the wrong side of the digital divide , working from home isn ’ t an option .
Klint Finley , “ When School Is Online , the Digital Divide Grows Greater ” at Wired The many tech industry efforts to alleviate the shortages and stresses caused by COVID-19 don ’ t address basic lack @ @ @ @ @ @ @ time , energy , money , and technology .
But post-COVID , we can likely count on hearing much more about digital inequality as a political issue .
4.Enrollment at universities could see large swings this fall : A “ cascade ” of over-admissions is coming .
“ Schools are going to have unexpected yield for this class , ” John Katzman , the founder and CEO of Noodle Partners told me .
Noodle works with colleges to build innovative learning programs and part of that is advising colleges on student recruitment and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ will be almost impossible to calculate what percentage of students a school accepts will actually show up in the fall .
“ As a result , ” Katzman said , “ schools will over-accept .
And that will have a weird cascading effect all the way down .
If the first tier schools take extra students , they can put them someplace , but the less prestigious ones will have a problem.
” If so , we can reasonably expect news of enrolment problems at smaller or local universities .
5.Some long-term changes @ @ @ @ @ @ @ context : Hurricane Katrina ’ s impact on education in New Orleans , which most people thought at the time would be temporary , turned out to be long-term : The schools didn ’ t cause the devastation , so why change them ?
Yet , change they did .
The state took over almost all the city ’ s public schools , eventually turning their operations over to nonprofit charter organizations .
Teacher tenure and the union contract ended .
The attendance zones , which assign students to the schools they attend @ @ @ @ @ @ @ eliminated so that families had a chance to choose any schools they wished .
Only a handful of cities had ever done any one of these things before—New Orleans did all of them at once .
Douglas N. Harris , “ How will COVID-19 change our schools in the long run ?
” at Brookings The change , radical on the surface , enabled parents to send their children to any approved school during the post-devastation period when much housing was temporary .
The parents were perhaps unwilling to give up that right @ @ @ @ @ @ @ restores the traditional balance in education , which gives parents some say in schooling for their children ’ s future .
In an age when most governments worldwide have closed schools in response to COVID-19 , these lessons may not be lost later .
Some see the situation as an opportunity to explore the opportunities for ( very often free ) learning at home : Whether it ’ s taking a virtual tour of one of 2,500 museums around the world , listening to a live concert , learning in-demand technology and coding @ @ @ @ @ @ @ story or art time with renowned authors and artists , or just enjoying special , slower moments together as a family , this is a once-in-a-lifetime chance to disconnect from standard schooling and discover how much learning can really happen… Most parents will eagerly send their children back to school when this is all over , but some parents will be surprised by what they discover during this break from ordinary life .
They may see how much calmer their children are and how school-related ailments such as ADHD are less problematic at @ @ @ @ @ @ @ children ’ s mental health has improved , particularly for teenagers who report the most unhappiness at school .
Kerry McDonald , “ Are kids learning more at home durig COVID-19 ?
” at MercatorNet Hold that last thought .
Most teens are probably better off without their lives being ruled by an “ in ” clique at school .
In any event , here are some parting thoughts from a political science prof who was homeschooled for eight years : What books and magazines do you leave lying around ?
What subjects @ @ @ @ @ @ @ friends when you see them ?
How do you treat the other people you encounter , and what kinds of interactions take place ?
Children learn chiefly by emulation , and the examples you provide every day in small ways , the books you have on the coffee table , the websites you visit , and the work you bring home and talk about – whether you are a lawyer , a dentist , a nurse or a bus driver – provide more instruction than most classes .
Mordechai Levy-Eichel , “ I @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s what I recommend ” at Aeon Children learn most surely the things they actually live .
Further reading on post-COVID-19 changes : Post-COVID , five ways your job could change .
This is a good time to be a creative thinker and innovator .
Many COVID-driven innovations will likely endure , whether it ’ s vets doing telehealth , trolls harassing Zoom users , or cybercriminals targeting remote workers , the new opportunities and risks will stay with us .
Five possibly unexpected ways the post-COVID office will change .
We @ @ @ @ @ @ @ at home than we ever thought we would .

Recently, a Harvard prof chose to launch an attack on homeschoolers, portraying them as driven by narrow religious concerns. Law professor Elizabeth Bartholet’s Harvard Magazine-length putdown hit precisely when millions of parents now homeschool— or at least supervise their children’s remote learning—whether they like it or not. Mike McShane spoke for many when he characterized the attack as “lazy”:
Lazy stereotypes of insular religious homeschoolers are also easily disproven by a cursory look at the data. In 2019, the National Center for Education Statistics published results from a survey of homeschoolers who found that the number one reason for homeschooling was not “a desire to provide religious instruction” (that came in third) or even “a desire to provide moral instruction” (that came in seventh), but rather “a concern about school environment, such as safety, drugs, or negative peer pressure.” Number two was “dissatisfaction with the academic instruction at other schools.” Mike McShane, “Harvard’s Lazy Attack On Homeschooling” at Forbes
Harvard’s Kennedy School has—possibly recognizing Harvard Magazine’s apparent cultural tunelessness—responded by launching a Zoom meeting titled The Disinformation Campaign against Homeschooling (May 1, 2020): “Speakers will discuss the dishonest attacks on homeschooling that have been pervasive in the media and academia and also address the failures of public education.” A good call. Attacks on homeschooling, often launched by interests favorable to massive teachers’ unions, were more understandable back when it was just some parents’ choice in a free market.
Meanwhile, five trends to watch:
1.Parent–teacher co-operation is becoming critical, not just desirable. Instead of disparaging homeschooling, many classroom teachers have begun offering advice to parents who have been conscripted by COVID-19 as homeschoolers. Educator Oona Hanson suggests, given that many resources are available, parents relax and farm out the areas that are just not their best strengths, with so many online resources now available:
Unless you love exploring math with your kids, go easy on yourself with this one. And since most parents are unfamiliar with — and even afraid or suspicious of — the current approaches to math, you’re really off the hook here. Luckily, there are many high quality online resources for math, such as Kahn Academy and Bedtime Math. Younger kids can use flash cards to maintain or build automaticity with their math facts, and they can do it on their own, without an adult or a computer. Terri Peters, “Teacher: ‘You don’t have to strive for perfection’ when homeschooling your kids” at Today
2.Creative internet use is getting around quarantines. Parents, students, and teachers worldwide have been finding ways to use the internet for subjects they would never have considered before:
… students at one school in Lebanon began leveraging online learning, even for subjects such as physical education. Students shot and sent over their own videos of athletic training and sports to their teachers as “homework,” pushing students to learn new digital skills. One student’s parent remarked, “while the sports exercise took a few minutes, my son spent three hours shooting, editing and sending the video in the right format to his teacher.” Gloria Tam and Diana El-Azar, “3 ways the coronavirus pandemic could reshape education” at WeForum
3.The “digital divide” is, becoming stark and more critical, as illustrated by the plight of a rural student in the COVID-19 shutdown in Washington state:
Medina is one of millions of people in the US who lack reliable broadband internet at home, either because they can’t afford it or because it simply isn’t available where they live. This digital divide has always left children and adults alike with fewer educational and economic opportunities. But with schools, libraries, and workplaces closed during the coronavirus pandemic, those without broadband are struggling to access schoolwork, job listings, unemployment benefit applications, and video chat services that others use to keep in touch with friends and family. For those on the wrong side of the digital divide, working from home isn’t an option. Klint Finley, “When School Is Online, the Digital Divide Grows Greater” at Wired
The many tech industry efforts to alleviate the shortages and stresses caused by COVID-19 don’t address basic lack of broadband. Fixing that takes more time, energy, money, and technology. But post-COVID, we can likely count on hearing much more about digital inequality as a political issue.
4.Enrollment at universities could see large swings this fall:
A “cascade” of over-admissions is coming. “Schools are going to have unexpected yield for this class,” John Katzman, the founder and CEO of Noodle Partners told me. Noodle works with colleges to build innovative learning programs and part of that is advising colleges on student recruitment and retention. An unexpected yield means it will be almost impossible to calculate what percentage of students a school accepts will actually show up in the fall. “As a result,” Katzman said, “schools will over-accept. And that will have a weird cascading effect all the way down. If the first tier schools take extra students, they can put them someplace, but the less prestigious ones will have a problem.” Derek Newton, “Five Ways COVID-19 Will Impact Fall College Enrollments” at Forbes
If so, we can reasonably expect news of enrolment problems at smaller or local universities.
5.Some long-term changes will be unexpected but make sense in context: Hurricane Katrina’s impact on education in New Orleans, which most people thought at the time would be temporary, turned out to be long-term:
The schools didn’t cause the devastation, so why change them? Yet, change they did. The state took over almost all the city’s public schools, eventually turning their operations over to nonprofit charter organizations. Teacher tenure and the union contract ended. The attendance zones, which assign students to the schools they attend based on where they live, were eliminated so that families had a chance to choose any schools they wished. Only a handful of cities had ever done any one of these things before—New Orleans did all of them at once. Douglas N. Harris, “How will COVID-19 change our schools in the long run?” at Brookings
The change, radical on the surface, enabled parents to send their children to any approved school during the post-devastation period when much housing was temporary. The parents were perhaps unwilling to give up that right later. The new charter schools approach restores the traditional balance in education, which gives parents some say in schooling for their children’s future.
In an age when most governments worldwide have closed schools in response to COVID-19, these lessons may not be lost later. Some see the situation as an opportunity to explore the opportunities for (very often free) learning at home:
Whether it’s taking a virtual tour of one of 2,500 museums around the world, listening to a live concert, learning in-demand technology and coding skills for free, engaging in livestream story or art time with renowned authors and artists, or just enjoying special, slower moments together as a family, this is a once-in-a-lifetime chance to disconnect from standard schooling and discover how much learning can really happen… Most parents will eagerly send their children back to school when this is all over, but some parents will be surprised by what they discover during this break from ordinary life. They may see how much calmer their children are and how school-related ailments such as ADHD are less problematic at home. They may see that their children’s mental health has improved, particularly for teenagers who report the most unhappiness at school. Kerry McDonald, “Are kids learning more at home durig COVID-19?” at MercatorNet
Hold that last thought. Most teens are probably better off without their lives being ruled by an “in” clique at school.
In any event, here are some parting thoughts from a political science prof who was homeschooled for eight years:
What books and magazines do you leave lying around? What subjects and ideas do you discuss with your friends when you see them? How do you treat the other people you encounter, and what kinds of interactions take place? Children learn chiefly by emulation, and the examples you provide every day in small ways, the books you have on the coffee table, the websites you visit, and the work you bring home and talk about – whether you are a lawyer, a dentist, a nurse or a bus driver – provide more instruction than most classes. Mordechai Levy-Eichel, “I was homeschooled for eight years: here’s what I recommend” at Aeon
Children learn most surely the things they actually live.
Further reading on post-COVID-19 changes:
Post-COVID, five ways your job could change. This is a good time to be a creative thinker and innovator. Many COVID-driven innovations will likely endure, whether it’s vets doing telehealth, trolls harassing Zoom users, or cybercriminals targeting remote workers, the new opportunities and risks will stay with us.
and
Five possibly unexpected ways the post-COVID office will change. We’ll all know more about working at home than we ever thought we would.


discoveryinstitute--2020-04-28--Herd Immunity, Not Herd Mentality

Herd Immunity, Not Herd Mentality

Dr. Nathan Lents is a Darwinist biologist who has tangled with design science in the past .
His response to the coronavirus pandemic is , believe it or not , to chastise ordinary people who question the competence of public health experts .
On Twitter , Dr. Lents rants : Actually , the “ field of public health ” is complicit in the worst episode of scientific malfeasance in the 21st century .
WHO and the CDC have a major job — prevent pandemics .
They not only failed to prevent the COVID-19 pandemic .
Worse , they failed to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ was obvious that China was dealing with a highly contagious and deadly viral epidemic .
The WHO dissembled about the seriousness of COVID-19 , advised against closing borders , and basically did China ’ s bidding at the expense of the rest of the world .
The CDC was months behind the curve as well .
Experts like Dr. Fauci downplayed the seriousness of the pandemic , and local experts like the New York City health commissioner actually told people to gather in large crowds even as the pandemic spread .
Had scientists @ @ @ @ @ @ @ U.S. could have restricted travel from Wuhan earlier and dramatically reduced the transmission of the virus to their populations .
Scientific incompetence has cost many lives and trillions of dollars .
And Dr. Lents says “ How dare you not trust us !
” Actually , public health scientists didn ’ t understand the risks of COVID-19 .
That ’ s one reason that we have this pandemic .
That Lents would criticize people who question “ public health scientists ” in the wake of the most egregious failure of public health scientists @ @ @ @ @ @ @ next tells us to trust the scientists ’ models : Epidemiological models have been worse than useless : they have caused panic and enormous damage to our economy .
They botched their most important job , which is to protect the public from pandemics .
Public Health 101 is to prevent pandemics .
Scientists knew ( or should have known — that was their job ) months ago what was brewing in Wuhan and they failed to act .
Any carpenter or electrician who did his job as badly as public health scientists @ @ @ @ @ @ @ be fired on the spot , if he ’ s lucky .
The analogue to public health scientists ’ conduct in the coronavirus pandemic would be a carpenter who built a house that collapsed and killed its occupants , or an electrician who burned a house down with his incompetent work .
He goes on : Questioning scientific opinions isn ’ t “ dangerous.
” Blindly trusting a scientific elite unworthy of trust is dangerous .
It would be great if the situation were otherwise , but it isn ’ t , so @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Lents won ’ t be questioning scientists .
He ’ s already running cover for them .
Scientists will be covering their tracks and making excuses for years .
We can ’ t just “ let them do their jobs.
” Our scientific establishment has already done enough damage .
It would seem that the response of the scientific establishment to their worst failure in the 21st century would be “ We scientists are really sorry about our countless errors that led to this pandemic that has disrupted the lives and economies of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ forgive us and help us to humbly revamp our science.
” Scientists at the WHO , the CDC , in the Chinese scientific establishment , and elsewhere permitted this pandemic .
If the virus arose naturally ( a big “ if ” in my view ) , it needed to be only a local outbreak in Wuhan .
But the scientific community stood by as infected people flew out of Wuhan to the world , even as Chinese experts closed down flights out of Wuhan within China .
Chinese scientists obviously knew the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ own airports to travelers from Wuhan if the virus was harmless ?
Don ’ t say , “ Oh , but they didn ’ t know !
” It ’ s their job to know , and much of what was happening in China was public knowledge .
Public health experts have known for decades that China is the source for serial outbreaks of SARS-like viral pandemics .
It happens every few years .
What recommendations were made by our science elites to protect us from this ?
Did they provide the obvious @ @ @ @ @ @ @ must close our borders to potentially infected travelers ” ?
Any middle school child knows that , but it was opaque to our experts .
Science experts left us open to a horrendous pandemic .
Yet public health scientists remain fully employed , and now Lents scolds us for doubting advice from the same hacks who botched things up to begin with .
Raw arrogance .
As this pandemic shows , we need to question scientific experts , constantly and rigorously .
We need scientific controversy , not “ consensus.
” On a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ epidemiology , but evolution , neuroscience , climate science , among others — we need to say to the scientific establishment : “ Show us .
Prove what you claim , to our satisfaction , because we don ’ t believe you.
” Never forget what the scientific “ consensus ” did to us .
Scientific “ consensus ” left us with overflowing morgues and wrecked economies .
In a rational society , scientists responsible for this would lose their jobs and face legal investigation for negligence .
Herd immunity is good , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ need to be done with this scientific priesthood .
We should assume that every pronouncement of the scientific “ consensus ” — “ You must do as we order — all scientists agree !
” — is dubious at best until shown to be otherwise .
Photo by Markus Spiske on Unsplash , via Unsplash .

Dr. Nathan Lents is a Darwinist biologist who has tangled with design science in the past. His response to the coronavirus pandemic is, believe it or not, to chastise ordinary people who question the competence of public health experts. On Twitter, Dr. Lents rants:
Something I have heard WAY TOO OFTEN from otherwise smart/thoughtful people: “What about all the harm to mental and physical health by saying home/alone this much?” Y’all need to STOP with the notion that #PublicHealth scientists at the CDC/NIH/WHO are just forgetting or ignoring the costs & dangers of all this sheltering-in-place. OF COURSE they know all that. The entire field of Public Health is about weighing multiple factors, balancing disparate health risks and benefits, calculating costs and dangers. THAT IS WHAT THE FIELD *IS*.
Actually, the “field of public health” is complicit in the worst episode of scientific malfeasance in the 21st century. WHO and the CDC have a major job — prevent pandemics. They not only failed to prevent the COVID-19 pandemic. Worse, they failed to take appropriate action months ago when it was obvious that China was dealing with a highly contagious and deadly viral epidemic. The WHO dissembled about the seriousness of COVID-19, advised against closing borders, and basically did China’s bidding at the expense of the rest of the world. The CDC was months behind the curve as well. Experts like Dr. Fauci downplayed the seriousness of the pandemic, and local experts like the New York City health commissioner actually told people to gather in large crowds even as the pandemic spread.
Had scientists done their job, Europe and the U.S. could have restricted travel from Wuhan earlier and dramatically reduced the transmission of the virus to their populations. Scientific incompetence has cost many lives and trillions of dollars. And Dr. Lents says “How dare you not trust us!”
Lents:
Yes, public health scientists actively monitor competing risks and they understand those risks WAY BETTER than the rest of us, especially better than all the newly minted amateur epidemiologists among us.
Actually, public health scientists didn’t understand the risks of COVID-19. That’s one reason that we have this pandemic. That Lents would criticize people who question “public health scientists” in the wake of the most egregious failure of public health scientists in this century is remarkable.
What Arrogance
Lents next tells us to trust the scientists’ models:
Those various risks & benefits are in the models that they are using. Don’t forget that CDC tracks depression, anxiety, suicide, obesity, stroke, heart attack, diabetes, malnutrition, and even domestic violence, just as actively as they track infectious disease. Those variables are in their calculations, and so is economic impact, because they understand that economic downturn brings harm to mental & physical health. I’m not saying we shouldn’t question scientists, but it is ignorant & insulting to suggest that they haven’t considered these extremely obvious concepts. Folks, this is Public Health 101.
Epidemiological models have been worse than useless: they have caused panic and enormous damage to our economy. They botched their most important job, which is to protect the public from pandemics. Public Health 101 is to prevent pandemics. Scientists knew (or should have known — that was their job) months ago what was brewing in Wuhan and they failed to act.
Lents continues his elitist rant:
Would you tell a carpenter that some kinds of wood are harder than others? Would you remind a soccer player that she can’t use her hands? Would you lecture your electrician about GFCI outlets and safety? Would you remind a chef not to use a dull knife?
Any carpenter or electrician who did his job as badly as public health scientists did theirs on the coronavirus pandemic would be fired on the spot, if he’s lucky. The analogue to public health scientists’ conduct in the coronavirus pandemic would be a carpenter who built a house that collapsed and killed its occupants, or an electrician who burned a house down with his incompetent work.
Lents Won’t Give Up
He goes on:
Yes, I’m ranting, but this is beyond frustrating. Imagine, if you can, someone with NO EXPERIENCE in your line of work asking you if you know something that you learned on your first day on the job. The utter contempt for expertise is not just annoying but DANGEROUS.
Questioning scientific opinions isn’t “dangerous.” Blindly trusting a scientific elite unworthy of trust is dangerous. It would be great if the situation were otherwise, but it isn’t, so we have to think for ourselves.
Lents:
We can question [scientists] later, and believe me, we will.
Lents won’t be questioning scientists. He’s already running cover for them.
Covering Tracks, Making Excuses
Lents:
Scientists will be studying the effectiveness of our countermeasures during this epidemic FOR YEARS. But for now, please LET THE EXPERTS DO THEIR JOBS. They are our best hope to minimize death and suffering.
Scientists will be covering their tracks and making excuses for years. We can’t just “let them do their jobs.” Our scientific establishment has already done enough damage. It would seem that the response of the scientific establishment to their worst failure in the 21st century would be “We scientists are really sorry about our countless errors that led to this pandemic that has disrupted the lives and economies of the West, perhaps permanently. Please forgive us and help us to humbly revamp our science.” Scientists at the WHO, the CDC, in the Chinese scientific establishment, and elsewhere permitted this pandemic. If the virus arose naturally (a big “if” in my view), it needed to be only a local outbreak in Wuhan. But the scientific community stood by as infected people flew out of Wuhan to the world, even as Chinese experts closed down flights out of Wuhan within China. Chinese scientists obviously knew the truth — why would China close its own airports to travelers from Wuhan if the virus was harmless?
Don’t say, “Oh, but they didn’t know!” It’s their job to know, and much of what was happening in China was public knowledge. Public health experts have known for decades that China is the source for serial outbreaks of SARS-like viral pandemics. It happens every few years. What recommendations were made by our science elites to protect us from this? Did they provide the obvious advice to prevent pandemics: “We must close our borders to potentially infected travelers”? Any middle school child knows that, but it was opaque to our experts.
Science experts left us open to a horrendous pandemic. Yet public health scientists remain fully employed, and now Lents scolds us for doubting advice from the same hacks who botched things up to begin with. Raw arrogance.
Controversy, Not “Consensus”
As this pandemic shows, we need to question scientific experts, constantly and rigorously. We need scientific controversy, not “consensus.” On a broad spectrum of issues — not only epidemiology, but evolution, neuroscience, climate science, among others — we need to say to the scientific establishment: “Show us. Prove what you claim, to our satisfaction, because we don’t believe you.”
Never forget what the scientific “consensus” did to us. Scientific “consensus” left us with overflowing morgues and wrecked economies. In a rational society, scientists responsible for this would lose their jobs and face legal investigation for negligence.
Herd immunity is good, but herd mentality is lethal. We need to be done with this scientific priesthood. We should assume that every pronouncement of the scientific “consensus” — “You must do as we order — all scientists agree!” — is dubious at best until shown to be otherwise.
Photo by Markus Spiske on Unsplash, via Unsplash.


discoveryinstitute--2020-04-27--A Home Run For Better WiFi

A Home Run For Better WiFi

There is a phenomenally better WiFi experience on the immediate horizon for those of us who may be working from home , consulting with our doctors from home or studying from home as a result of COVID-19 .
WiFi 6 will give home and office networks as well as public hotspots the capacity to function at 5G-comparable speed and reliability .
It will also enable a growing range of devices and appliances to connect to the Internet in vast numbers — and since some of these devices will have smaller batteries , WiFi 6 will help conserve battery life .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ technologies that depend and build upon each other .
5G is more commonly accessed outdoors by most consumers — although this may begin to change in some places .
Cisco predicts the number of public WiFi hotspots will reach 628 million globally by 2023 — a four-fold increase compared to 169 million hotspots in 2018 .
In what would amount to a five-fold increase in the amount of electromagnetic spectrum available for WiFi and other uses , Chairman Ajit Pai of the Federal Communications Commission is boldly and brilliantly proposing to unleash the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ unlicensed use .
The 6 GHz band will support next generation wireless technologies including WiFi 6 and certain variants of 5G that use unlicensed spectrum under this proposal .
The 6 GHz band contains 1,200 megahertz , which should be enough capacity to satisfy growing demand for the next several years , according to a Qualcomm study .
The 6 GHz band is ideal for next generation WiFi , both because its adjacent to the 5 GHz band — which accommodates existing WiFi services — and because its fairly underutilized by incumbent users @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 6 GHz band with the incumbent users without causing harmful interference .
And since the incumbent users won ’ t therefore need to be relocated to another spectrum band — a process that can take years — the rollout of WiFi 6 can begin immediately .
The technology itself is ready for deployment .
Unleashing a vast amount of additional spectrum for WiFi is a bonanza for consumers , who will get to share a valuable public resource at no cost .
When mobile phone carriers pay billions of dollars for exclusive , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ have no choice but to pass those massive costs along to consumers in the form of higher bills .
Some have argued for splitting the 6 GHz band between WiFi 6 and 5G technologies — since both face an urgent need for more spectrum .
Chairman Pai ’ s proposal will result in much more efficient spectrum utilization overall , with less spectrum having to be set aside for things like guard bands to prevent interference and overhead signaling to enhance network performance .
Considering not only the amount of mid-band spectrum that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 5 GHz and 6 GHz ) , but also the proximity and contiguity of this spectrum , many more of the wide ( 160 megahertz ) channels for which WiFi 6 was designed to operate most effectively are possible .
Wider channels allow more simultaneous users to transmit and receive at top speed , in this case up to 10 gigabits .
5G services , the bulk of which operate on licensed spectrum , are an indirect beneficiary of this spectrum allocation , since WiFi networks play an indispensable role in relieving cellular @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 60 % of global mobile data traffic will be off-loaded to WiFi by 2022 , according to a Cisco projection cited by Chairman Pai .
Redeploying our nation ’ s electromagnetic spectrum assets where they ’ re needed most is one of the most important contributions the FCC makes to our country .
It ’ s been 17 years since the commission allocated the 5 GHz band for WiFi , and Chairman Pai is to be commended for acting decisively to supplement that now .
He also deserves recognition for avoiding pressure to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ solution that would lead to a more fragmented and inefficient allocation of spectrum , which is a limited and valuable public resource .
Less capable public servants typically shrink and hide from criticism .
Pai — who seems to choose his battles carefully , as he should — appears to be willing to act decisively now and then when its appropriate .

There is a phenomenally better WiFi experience on the immediate horizon for those of us who may be working from home, consulting with our doctors from home or studying from home as a result of COVID-19.
WiFi 6 will give home and office networks as well as public hotspots the capacity to function at 5G-comparable speed and reliability. It will also enable a growing range of devices and appliances to connect to the Internet in vast numbers — and since some of these devices will have smaller batteries, WiFi 6 will help conserve battery life.
WiFi 6 and 5G are complementary wireless technologies that depend and build upon each other. 5G is more commonly accessed outdoors by most consumers — although this may begin to change in some places. Cisco predicts the number of public WiFi hotspots will reach 628 million globally by 2023 — a four-fold increase compared to 169 million hotspots in 2018.
In what would amount to a five-fold increase in the amount of electromagnetic spectrum available for WiFi and other uses, Chairman Ajit Pai of the Federal Communications Commission is boldly and brilliantly proposing to unleash the entire 6 gigahertz band for shared, unlicensed use.
The 6 GHz band will support next generation wireless technologies including WiFi 6 and certain variants of 5G that use unlicensed spectrum under this proposal. The 6 GHz band contains 1,200 megahertz, which should be enough capacity to satisfy growing demand for the next several years, according to a Qualcomm study.
The 6 GHz band is ideal for next generation WiFi, both because its adjacent to the 5 GHz band — which accommodates existing WiFi services — and because its fairly underutilized by incumbent users.
WiFi services can share the entire 6 GHz band with the incumbent users without causing harmful interference. And since the incumbent users won’t therefore need to be relocated to another spectrum band — a process that can take years — the rollout of WiFi 6 can begin immediately. The technology itself is ready for deployment.
Unleashing a vast amount of additional spectrum for WiFi is a bonanza for consumers, who will get to share a valuable public resource at no cost. When mobile phone carriers pay billions of dollars for exclusive, licensed rights to use spectrum, they have no choice but to pass those massive costs along to consumers in the form of higher bills.
Some have argued for splitting the 6 GHz band between WiFi 6 and 5G technologies — since both face an urgent need for more spectrum. Chairman Pai’s proposal will result in much more efficient spectrum utilization overall, with less spectrum having to be set aside for things like guard bands to prevent interference and overhead signaling to enhance network performance.
Considering not only the amount of mid-band spectrum that will now be available for WiFi (5 GHz and 6 GHz), but also the proximity and contiguity of this spectrum, many more of the wide (160 megahertz) channels for which WiFi 6 was designed to operate most effectively are possible. Wider channels allow more simultaneous users to transmit and receive at top speed, in this case up to 10 gigabits.
5G services, the bulk of which operate on licensed spectrum, are an indirect beneficiary of this spectrum allocation, since WiFi networks play an indispensable role in relieving cellular network congestion. In fact, nearly 60% of global mobile data traffic will be off-loaded to WiFi by 2022, according to a Cisco projection cited by Chairman Pai.
Redeploying our nation’s electromagnetic spectrum assets where they’re needed most is one of the most important contributions the FCC makes to our country. It’s been 17 years since the commission allocated the 5 GHz band for WiFi, and Chairman Pai is to be commended for acting decisively to supplement that now.
He also deserves recognition for avoiding pressure to adopt a more modest and short term solution that would lead to a more fragmented and inefficient allocation of spectrum, which is a limited and valuable public resource.
Less capable public servants typically shrink and hide from criticism. Pai — who seems to choose his battles carefully, as he should — appears to be willing to act decisively now and then when its appropriate.