committeeconstructivetomorrowcfactorg--2020-04-15--Higher US Hurricane Impact on the table

Higher US Hurricane Impact on the table

• There are many similarities to some notable hyperactive seasons .
• A warm Atlantic Basin is already in place and no El Niño is expected .
• New Euro seasonal shows favorable MJO precipitation pattern for enhanced activity around North America .
• Our expectations of a big-ticket season have not changed from our March 10 outlook .
1 ) I want people to take a look at our ideas , When you read the discussion you will see that there are ideas in here you never see come forth , I like to try to show people what @ @ @ @ @ @ @ this forecast has merit , people will understand why the season turned out the way it did 3 ) What is more predictable than the hurricane season is that any and every event will be whipped into a sign of man made climate change , In 2016 , Hillary Clinton tried to use Hurricane Hermine , which TOOK 11 DAYS TO DEVELOP and was a cat 1 , as an example of what climate change can do .
What , limit development for 11 days and only a category at the peak of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ would say that , but it revealed 2 things , 1 ) apparent ignorance of the fact that within 10 days of Sept 11 is when hurricanes are at their worst and Hermine was a big underachiever relative to that .
2 ) That any weather system no matter how average or expected can be weaponized .
Given our 2020 vision ( clever eh } for this season , if the storms come , then the storm of climate change by people who just wait for something and then pounce , will reach @ @ @ @ @ @ @ want to show that there is a lot of research that is done behind the scenes by private sector meteorologists with no grants , except that if it has merit people buy it , Alot of sweat equity , This is a bittersweet forecast .
For no one wants to be wrong , And I understand the implications of this being right .
The return of hurricanes to the areas in the Caribbean devastated in 2017 for instance .
There are ways out of this , as you will see in the discussion @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are responsible for this appear to be setting up , Interestingly enough , the same pattern that gives much of the country a “ non winter ” like this past winter gives a weaker hurricane season .
However that is changing now and the tendency from now through fall is liable to be opposite , BTW one notices in El Nino seasons , which help warm the planet , hurricane activity is down .
A benefit to warming .
La Nina seasons , where the planets temperatures back down a bit are often @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , and that is the point , No matter what happens , there are going to be examples positive and negative in relation to life .
And the unfortunate thing is many do not look behind the scenes to bring up the other side .
if you wish to see a video form of this , it will on our site for free https : //www.weatherbell.com/ Scroll down to the Saturday Summary .
It will be there till 6 pm Saturday So here we go WeatherBell has been a pioneer in identifying the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ during the preseason .
Last year ’ s forecast showed the area where the ACE ( accumulated cyclone energy ) would be below normal but did not identify the above normal areas because the signal was quite weak for the first time in three years .
So we forecasted a scattershot season , which I think we can agree we had .
For the current year , a higher number of storms and ACE is supported by very warm Atlantic and Gulf SSTs and the fact that many storms we could not see @ @ @ @ @ @ @ with improved satellite instrumentation .
In addition , very warm water near the coasts ups the ante for rapid feedback development .
This is how we caught Imelda last year , and it ’ s fortunate the process waited until it was on land .
In April we are now identifying the areas we believe are at greatest risk for impacts .
The danger of the current idea is the same kind of thing that thwarted the winter forecast ( making a forecast off a forecast ) , but the forecasted SSTs are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ SST forecast has changed little .
The CFSv2 forecast from early March : The hyperactive seasons of 1995 , 1996 , 1998 , 1999 , 2003 , 2004 , and 2005 had the warmer SSTs in the tropical Atlantic with the cooler ( less warm ) waters off the Southeast Coast .
So out of the 10 samples , 3 have reason to hope for less 1 ) 2013 , 2 ) 2010 the gentle giant season , alot of storms but no major hits , 2007 Certainly , the JMA upward motion @ @ @ @ @ @ @ : They have caused some warming farther to the east , as the NOAA ENSO discussion says : We may be seeing a big change in the MJO forcing , favoring the southern parts of the Western Hemisphere rather than the northern parts of the Eastern Hemisphere .
Those are warm phases in winter and tend to limit tropical activity during the hurricane season .
So the analog years we are looking at are : Landfall chart of hurricanes and intensity in these years : Given the precipitation and pressure patterns , the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ hit the U.S. in the analog years with about half of them being major storms .
So 2-3 landfalling hurricanes , with 1-2 being major hurricanes is the current idea .
There are four areas that were targeted in the analog years : Texas , the central Gulf Coast , southern Florida , and the North Carolina Outer Banks .
None in these years broke out of the pack and hit New England , and you have to wonder how long that can be the case , though we did have a weakened @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The danger of making a forecast off of a forecast is there , along with the possibility of a year where next to nothing happens despite great similarities to the hyperactive years .
For now , we have high totals because of the similarities to the hyperactive years .
With the warm Atlantic Basin SSTs already in place , no El Niño , and an upward motion forecast that looks like a favorable MJO pattern for the hurricane season , this first “ vision ” of 2020 is for a big season .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ , where next to nothing hit land , but chances are staying in the middle like we are doing would serve us well .
The closest most recent season to this is 2017 .
The discussion about our Power and Impact Scale can be found in forecast discussions from previous years .

There are many similarities to some notable hyperactive seasons.
A warm Atlantic Basin is already in place and no El Niño is expected.
Weighting analogs points at highly active seasons.
New Euro seasonal shows favorable MJO precipitation pattern for enhanced activity around North America.
Our expectations of a big-ticket season have not changed from our March 10 outlook.
I am sharing this with you from my company for 3 reasons; I am sharing this with you from my company for 3 reasons;
1) I want people to take a look at our ideas. When you read the discussion you will see that there are ideas in here you never see come forth. I like to try to show people what I am looking at.
2) If this forecast has merit, people will understand why the season turned out the way it did.
3) What is more predictable than the hurricane season is that any and every event will be whipped into a sign of man made climate change. In 2016, Hillary Clinton tried to use Hurricane Hermine, which TOOK 11 DAYS TO DEVELOP and was a CAT 1, as an example of what climate change can do. What, limit development for 11 days and only a category one at the peak of the season? It was stunning she would say that, but it revealed 2 things, 1) apparent ignorance of the fact that within 10 days of Sept 11 is when hurricanes are at their worst and Hermine was a big underachiever relative to that. 2) That any weather system no matter how average or expected can be weaponized.
Given our 2020 vision (clever eh) for this season, if the storms come, then the storm of climate change by people who just wait for something and then pounce, will reach feverish levels.
Equally important I want to show that there is a lot of research that is done behind the scenes by private sector meteorologists with no grants. Except that it has to have merit for people buy it. This is a bittersweet forecast. For no one wants to be wrong and I understand the implications of this being right. The return of hurricanes to the areas in the Caribbean devastated in 2017 for instance. There are ways out of this, as you will see in the discussion below, but the physical drivers that are responsible for this appear to be setting up. Interestingly enough, the same pattern that gives much of the country a “non winter” like this past winter gives a weaker hurricane season. However that is changing now and the tendency from now through Fall is liable to be opposite. By the way one notices in El Nino seasons, which help warm the planet, hurricane activity is down. A benefit to warming. La Nina seasons, where the planets temperatures back down a bit are often the opposite. The good and bad, and that is the point. No matter what happens, there are going to be examples positive and negative in relation to life. The unfortunate thing is many do not look behind the scenes to bring up the other side.
If you wish to see a video form of this, it will on our site for free https://www.weatherbell.com/
Scroll down to the Saturday Summary . It will be there till 6 pm Saturday
So here we go:
WeatherBell has been a pioneer in identifying the areas most susceptible to tropical cyclone impact during the preseason. Last year’s forecast showed the area where the ACE (accumulated cyclone energy) would be below normal but did not identify the above normal areas because the signal was quite weak for the first time in three years. So we forecasted a scattershot season, which I think we can agree we had.
For the current year, a higher number of storms and ACE is supported by very warm Atlantic and Gulf SSTs. The fact that many storms we could not see years ago are now seen and named with improved satellite instrumentation. In addition, very warm water near the coasts ups the ante for rapid feedback development. This is how we caught Imelda last year, and it’s fortunate the process waited until it was on land.
In April we are now identifying the areas we believe are at greatest risk for impacts. The danger of the current idea is the same kind of thing that thwarted the winter forecast (making a forecast off a forecast), but the forecasted SSTs are in line with hyperactive seasons.
The SST forecast has changed little. The CFSv2 forecast from early March:
The latest: The latest:
A La Niña does not mean we have to have a big season. However, when we look at what the Euro Seasonal is forecasting, we notice heavy precipitation near the U.S. Coast and in the Main Development Region. A La Niña does not mean we have to have a big season. However, when we look at what the Euro Seasonal is forecasting, we notice heavy precipitation near the U.S. Coast and in the Main Development Region.
This closely correlates to Phases 2 & 3 of the MJO: This closely correlates to Phases 2 & 3 of the MJO:
The precipitation pattern during the 8 hyperactive seasons:
Phases 2 & 3 give us this according to Vitart, et al. Phases 2 & 3 give us this according to Vitart, et al.
Notice that modeling forecasts less than what actually happens, which may be why the Euro is dragging its heels on total ACE (it is up to 90% from 70%). Based on the modeling’s expectations, it would underpredict in Phases 2 & 3 by not picking up storms that develop in the middle of nowhere. Those areas have been tacking on storm numbers and ACE totals in recent years. Notice that modeling forecasts less than what actually happens, which may be why the Euro is dragging its heels on total ACE (it is up to 90% from 70%). Based on the modeling’s expectations, it would underpredict in Phases 2 & 3 by not picking up storms that develop in the middle of nowhere. Those areas have been tacking on storm numbers and ACE totals in recent years.
The hyperactive seasons of 1995, 1996, 1998, 1999, 2003, 2004, and 2005 had the warmer SSTs in the tropical Atlantic with the cooler (less warm) waters off the Southeast Coast.
The 2010 and 2017 hyperactive seasons: The 2010 and 2017 hyperactive seasons:
These were more like what we are seeing now, with more widespread warmth. There are also some similarities to 2007 and 2013, which wound up with near to below normal activity. These were more like what we are seeing now, with more widespread warmth. There are also some similarities to 2007 and 2013, which wound up with near to below normal activity.
In fact, an argument can be made that those years could be the closest to the SST forecast. In fact, an argument can be made that those years could be the closest to the SST forecast.
So out of the 10 samples, 3 have reason to hope for less 1) 2013, 2) 2010 the gentle giant season, alot of storms but no major hits, 2007
Certainly, the JMA upward motion chart for the summer season remains similar:
It matches the upward motion for those more favorable phases of the MJO: It matches the upward motion for those more favorable phases of the MJO:
Now the big danger of course, like the past winter, is making a forecast off a forecast. However, there are physical reasons now indicating the models are onto something. Nino4 is cooling: Now the big danger of course, like the past winter, is making a forecast off a forecast. However, there are physical reasons now indicating the models are onto something. Nino4 is cooling:
The area that tends to have the big Phase 6 feedback area is cooling. Recently, westerly bursts have not stopped that cooling. This can be seen through the SOI: The area that tends to have the big Phase 6 feedback area is cooling. Recently, westerly bursts have not stopped that cooling. This can be seen through the SOI:
They have caused some warming farther to the east, as the NOAA ENSO discussion says:
Colder water is lurking, so as soon as the burst is done cooling should resume. Colder water is lurking, so as soon as the burst is done cooling should resume.
We may be seeing a big change in the MJO forcing, favoring the southern parts of the Western Hemisphere rather than the northern parts of the Eastern Hemisphere. Those are warm phases in winter and tend to limit tropical activity during the hurricane season.
So the analog years we are looking at are:
Year ACE Named Storms Hurricanes Intense Hurricanes 1995 227 19 11 5 1996 166 13 9 6 1998 182 14 10 3 1999 177 12 8 5 2003 177 16 7 3 2004 227 15 9 6 2005 250 28 15 7 2007 74 15 6 2 2010 165 19 12 5 2013 36 14 2 0 2017 225 17 10 6 Average 173 16.5 9 4.4
Landfall chart of hurricanes and intensity in these years:
Given the precipitation and pressure patterns, the hints are there.
About 25 hurricanes hit the U.S. in the analog years with about half of them being major storms. So 2-3 landfalling hurricanes, with 1-2 being major hurricanes is the current idea. There are four areas that were targeted in the analog years: Texas, the central Gulf Coast, southern Florida, and the North Carolina Outer Banks. None in these years broke out of the pack and hit New England, and you have to wonder how long that can be the case, though we did have a weakened Irene and Sandy in non-analog years.
The Verdict
The danger of making a forecast off of a forecast is there, along with the possibility of a year where next to nothing happens despite great similarities to the hyperactive years. For now, we have high totals because of the similarities to the hyperactive years.
With the warm Atlantic Basin SSTs already in place, no El Niño, and an upward motion forecast that looks like a favorable MJO pattern for the hurricane season, this first “vision” of 2020 is for a big season. We can have big seasons like 2010, where next to nothing hit land, but chances are staying in the middle like we are doing would serve us well. The closest most recent season to this is 2017.
Notes and asides
The discussion about our Power and Impact Scale can be found in forecast discussions from previous years.


committeeconstructivetomorrowcfactorg--2020-04-15--Could the end of ethanol be in sight?

Could the end of ethanol be in sight?

Ethanol alcohol ( EtOH ) is the same alcohol that is in beer , wine , and distilled spirits , namely CH CH OH .
In dry milling the entire kernel of corn or other starchy grain such as wheat , barley or sorghum is processed without separating out the various component parts of the grain .
Water is added to form a mash to which enzymes are added to convert the starch to dextrose , a simple sugar .
The mash is cooked at high temperatures to reduce bacteria , and is then cooled and fermented with yeast to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ yeast die off when the alcohol content rises to about 15 % .
Distillation converts the mixture to about 180-proof ( 90 % ) .
Dehydration with benzene produces 200-proof ( 100 % ) alcohol .
Then a small amount of a denaturant , such as unleaded gasoline , is added to ensure that it can not be consumed as a beverage before being shipped off to be used as a fuel .
The Environmental Protection Agency ruled in the Clinton years that gasoline manufacturers were required to use ethanol as an oxygenate @ @ @ @ @ @ @ by MTBE ( methyl tertiary-butyl ether ) which proved to be a ground water contaminant .
While Chemical & Engineering News explained that cars produced after 1995 no longer needed an additive to produce a cleaner burn , the requirement continues to this date , as a result of extremely effective lobbying by agricultural trade groups .
Their success is indicated by the fact that ethanol received a 51-cent per gallon subsidy through 2008 and 45 cents a gallon ever since .
In addition , cheaper EtOH made in Brazil from sugar cane @ @ @ @ @ @ @ !
There is more !
An escalating government mandate that runs through 2022 requires the production of 37 billion gallons of biofuel ( primarily ethanol ) in the United States .
All of this support for an unnecessary fuel even before the U.S. became the energy capital of the world , was exposed in 1998 by the late Dr. David Pimentel of Cornell University .
While chairing the U.S. Department of Energy Panel to investigate the economics of ethanol production , the panel found that 131,000 British Thermal Units ( BTUs ) were @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ethanol , which only produced 77,000 BTUs when burned .
That is a net energy loss of 54,000 BTUs per gallon .
But it gets worse .
While some cost is captured by selling the residual dry distillers grain for animal feed , the panel determined that water use and soil erosion required by growing corn had their costs as well .
Pimentel ended his report by all but gloating when he stated that if all the automobiles in the U.S. were fueled by ethanol , 97 % of our land area would @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
In reality one can recognize that growing corn to produce ethanol is a way to harvest solar energy , all of which initially comes from the sun ’ s radiation .
How much strikes the earth at any one time depends on the season and latitude of the location .
A reasonable year-long average across the earth is that solar energy averages 200 watts per square meter of the earth surface ( think in terms of the heat and light provided by the familiar 100 watt light bulb ) .
To get @ @ @ @ @ @ @ consider two other ways to harness solar energy : direct conversion to electricity via photoelectric ( PV ) cells , and conversion of wind energy into electricity .
These days , commercially available PV cells can convert about 15 % -20 % of the sunlight falling on them into electricity .
In a place averaging 200 watts of sunlight per square meter , they produce 30-40 watts per square meter of land area , averaged around the year .
Wind turbines in excellent sites are spread out over huge tracts of land .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ kW/hectare , or 1.25 watts per square meter of the enclosed land .
Photosynthesis is the mechanism by which solar energy becomes stored in plants , and it is nowhere near as efficient as people believe .
To make a long story short , energy crops of various kinds can be produced at the rate of about 10 tons ( 9 metric tons ) of drymatter per acre ( 4047 square meters ) of land per year .
In energy units , it amounts to a year-round average conversion rate of sunlight to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , or about the same as wind power .
There is a big difference , however , between wind and biomass .
Wind machines produce electricity directly .
If drymatter is simply burned to produce steam to turn a turbine to produce electricity , it will do so at about 35 % efficiency , resulting in 0.42 watts per square meter .
But that ’ s also an overestimate , because we are neglecting the energy involved in harvesting , drying , and delivering the biomass to the electricity plant .
For corn @ @ @ @ @ @ @ plant energy is no better than for generic drymatter .
It takes a lot of energy to convert that energy into EtOH , as noted above .
The Renewable Energy Association has argued that the production of EtOH is energy net-positive , but their figures amount to about 0.6 watts ( thermal ) per square meter of land .
( Converted to electricity at 35 % efficiency , that would be 0.21 watts per square meter . )
In any case , the use of fertile land to produce a fuel means that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ produce food .
At last the forces of economics brought on by the unfortunate pandemic may be shining a light on the illogical continuous federal support for a fuel that makes no sense .
With less fuel being used , less ethanol is being bended into gasoline .
Profit on the production of ethanol , even with its subsidies , has disappeared .
More than a million gallons a day are being produced , according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration , as stockpiles total over 24 million barrels .
Last year more @ @ @ @ @ @ @ or closed down .
Many more are yet to follow .
Time is long overdue to end the ethanol industry as we have known it for more than three decades .
Let them turn to producing a more useful product , namely pure grain alcohol for the liquor industry .

Ethanol alcohol (EtOH) is the same alcohol that is in beer, wine, and distilled spirits, namely CH 3 CH 2 OH.
In dry milling the entire kernel of corn or other starchy grain such as wheat, barley or sorghum is processed without separating out the various component parts of the grain. Water is added to form a mash to which enzymes are added to convert the starch to dextrose, a simple sugar. The mash is cooked at high temperatures to reduce bacteria, and is then cooled and fermented with yeast to convert the sugar to alcohol. The yeast die off when the alcohol content rises to about 15%. Distillation converts the mixture to about 180-proof (90%). Dehydration with benzene produces 200-proof (100%) alcohol. Then a small amount of a denaturant, such as unleaded gasoline, is added to ensure that it cannot be consumed as a beverage before being shipped off to be used as a fuel.
The Environmental Protection Agency ruled in the Clinton years that gasoline manufacturers were required to use ethanol as an oxygenate to produce a cleaner burn previously provided by MTBE (methyl tertiary-butyl ether) which proved to be a ground water contaminant. While Chemical & Engineering News explained that cars produced after 1995 no longer needed an additive to produce a cleaner burn, the requirement continues to this date, as a result of extremely effective lobbying by agricultural trade groups.
Their success is indicated by the fact that ethanol received a 51-cent per gallon subsidy through 2008 and 45 cents a gallon ever since. In addition, cheaper EtOH made in Brazil from sugar cane suffers a 54-cent tariff. But wait! There is more! An escalating government mandate that runs through 2022 requires the production of 37 billion gallons of biofuel (primarily ethanol) in the United States.
All of this support for an unnecessary fuel even before the U.S. became the energy capital of the world, was exposed in 1998 by the late Dr. David Pimentel of Cornell University. While chairing the U.S. Department of Energy Panel to investigate the economics of ethanol production, the panel found that 131,000 British Thermal Units (BTUs) were required to produce a single gallon of ethanol, which only produced 77,000 BTUs when burned. That is a net energy loss of 54,000 BTUs per gallon. But it gets worse.
While some cost is captured by selling the residual dry distillers grain for animal feed, the panel determined that water use and soil erosion required by growing corn had their costs as well.
Pimentel ended his report by all but gloating when he stated that if all the automobiles in the U.S. were fueled by ethanol, 97% of our land area would have to be devoted to growing corn.
In reality one can recognize that growing corn to produce ethanol is a way to harvest solar energy, all of which initially comes from the sun’s radiation. How much strikes the earth at any one time depends on the season and latitude of the location. A reasonable year-long average across the earth is that solar energy averages 200 watts per square meter of the earth surface (think in terms of the heat and light provided by the familiar 100 watt light bulb).
To get some perspective on corn-ethanol, let us consider two other ways to harness solar energy: direct conversion to electricity via photoelectric (PV) cells, and conversion of wind energy into electricity.
These days, commercially available PV cells can convert about 15%-20% of the sunlight falling on them into electricity. In a place averaging 200 watts of sunlight per square meter, they produce 30-40 watts per square meter of land area, averaged around the year.
Wind turbines in excellent sites are spread out over huge tracts of land. On average, they produce about 12.5 kW/hectare, or 1.25 watts per square meter of the enclosed land.
Photosynthesis is the mechanism by which solar energy becomes stored in plants, and it is nowhere near as efficient as people believe. To make a long story short, energy crops of various kinds can be produced at the rate of about 10 tons (9 metric tons) of drymatter per acre (4047 square meters) of land per year. In energy units, it amounts to a year-round average conversion rate of sunlight to biomass of 1.2 watts per square meter, or about the same as wind power.
There is a big difference, however, between wind and biomass. Wind machines produce electricity directly. If drymatter is simply burned to produce steam to turn a turbine to produce electricity, it will do so at about 35% efficiency, resulting in 0.42 watts per square meter. But that’s also an overestimate, because we are neglecting the energy involved in harvesting, drying, and delivering the biomass to the electricity plant.
For corn, the conversion of solar energy into plant energy is no better than for generic drymatter. It takes a lot of energy to convert that energy into EtOH, as noted above. The Renewable Energy Association has argued that the production of EtOH is energy net-positive, but their figures amount to about 0.6 watts (thermal) per square meter of land. (Converted to electricity at 35% efficiency, that would be 0.21 watts per square meter.) In any case, the use of fertile land to produce a fuel means that less agricultural land can be used to produce food.
At last the forces of economics brought on by the unfortunate pandemic may be shining a light on the illogical continuous federal support for a fuel that makes no sense. With less fuel being used, less ethanol is being bended into gasoline. Profit on the production of ethanol, even with its subsidies, has disappeared. More than a million gallons a day are being produced, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, as stockpiles total over 24 million barrels.
Last year more than 10 ethanol plants cut production rates or closed down. Many more are yet to follow. Time is long overdue to end the ethanol industry as we have known it for more than three decades. Let them turn to producing a more useful product, namely pure grain alcohol for the liquor industry.


committeeconstructivetomorrowcfactorg--2020-04-14--Energy poverty in the pandemic age

Energy poverty in the pandemic age

In a recent article , International Energy Agency Executive Director Fatih Birol asserted that the “ huge disruption caused by the coronavirus has highlighted how much modern societies rely on electricity.
” Also adding that in many countries , electricity is critical for operating the ventilators and other medical equipment in the hospitals treating the soaring numbers of sick people .
Birol noted that electricity also ensures the timely communication of important information between governments and citizens and between doctors and patients .
Yet in sub-Saharan Africa hundreds of millions of people live without any access to electricity .
This @ @ @ @ @ @ @ far more vulnerable to disease and other dangers .
It also keeps them poor .
In this country , too , energy poverty can be linked to poor health and to COVID 19 .
According to a 2018 U.S. Energy Information Administration report , 31 percent of Americans have struggled to pay their energy bills – half of the respondents were African-Americans .
Couple that with the statement from the Centers for Disease Control that , during March , 33 percent of individuals requiring hospitalization for coronavirus were black .
This confirms results @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , on average , low-income households pay more than twice as much of their income for utilities as the median household .
That study also found that “ housing for the low income also tended to be less energy efficient , researchers found .
Families in that group were at higher risk for respiratory diseases and stress.
” Thus it is troubling to read that the first 12 COVID 19 deaths in St. Louis , Missouri , were all African-Americans .
Dr. Fredrick Echols , Director of the City of St. Louis Department @ @ @ @ @ @ @ African Americans are more resistant to contracting the virus , noting instead that pre-existing conditions such as diabetes and heart conditions “ disproportionately affect the black community.
” Dr. Anthony Fauci , the nation ’ s spokesman on the pandemic , agreed that , “ Diseases like diabetes , hypertension , obesity and asthma are disproportionately afflicting the minority populations , particularly the African Americans.
” Electricity , to be effective as a tool against disease , has to be affordable to be truly “ accessible.
” In the United States , hydrofracturing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of natural gas so low that the cleaner burning fuel has replaced coal as the nation ’ s largest supplier of electricity .
The economics of natural gas , however , are in jeopardy thanks to an unrelenting war on fracking that forced New York Governor Andrew Cuomo to ban fracking in his state .
Cuomo and other progressive Democrats are even working to ban new natural gas pipeline construction and even the sale and use of natural gas powered appliances .
Even presidential candidate Joe Biden in March took the Bernie Sanders @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Though Biden later “ clarified ” his statement to imply his proposed ban would apply only on public lands , the message was clear .
Hey Hey Ho Ho , Fossil Fuels Have Got To Go .
Biden has benefited from African-American political support .
Rep. James Clyburn ’ s ( D , SC ) endorsement sparked Biden ’ s massive primary victory in the South Carolina primary and prompted other candidates to drop out of the race , ensuring Biden a huge “ Super Thursday.
” However , former Cincinnati Mayor @ @ @ @ @ @ @ argues that adopting extreme green energy policies – like banning fracking – hurts black American voters .
Leaders of normally progressive liberal civil rights organizations , recognizing this , are urging Democrats to reconsider their opposition to affordable natural gas .
A recent article in Axios stated that , “ in recent interviews , Revs .
Al Sharpton and Jesse Jackson and National Urban League President ( and former New Orleans mayor ) Marc Morial said that energy costs are hitting people of color unfairly hard.
” These civil rights activists are opposing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , putting them at odds with environmentalists and progressive Democrats ( who now seem to include Joe Biden ) .
Morial has been especially vocal , arguing that “ Natural gas is a bit of a bridge fuel .
It ’ s a fuel that we need to have access to because the transition to alternatives is a long-range transition.
” Politicians , he said , should not debate these issues “ without consultation with the leaders of the African-American communities and neighborhoods affected by these issues.
” Sanders ’ radical approach to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ stuck with Biden , who now seems to have betrayed that trust .
Jackson had told Axios in February that he supports “ the call [ to ban fracking ] with a proper transition .
In the meantime , those who are down and out have to have it.
” Sharpton agreed that “ natural gas is a temporary solution , but in the interim people in communities of color should not pay the brunt of suffering through cold winters.
” Meanwhile , the corona virus has begun to spread into sub-Saharan Africa @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 54 countries reporting cases as early as March 18 .
An earlier report noted that northern Nigeria , which is home to 90 percent of that nation ’ s poor , is ripe for a pandemic outbreak .
Only 24 percent of households there have access to electricity , water , and sanitation .
Indeed , the West ’ s refusal to assist Africans to switch from dung and wood to fossil fuel energy ( instead forcing investment in renewable energy that provides carbon credits for Europeans ) may trigger a massive outbreak @ @ @ @ @ @ @ – despite theories that this virus can not possibly infect people in hot climates .
Just a decade ago , the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa acknowledged that , “ fossil fuels are important energy sources that play vital roles in the economies of African nations , ” adding that over 80 percent of the electricity generated across the continent was from fossil fuels .
Several African nations relied upon fossil fuel exports for much of their revenues .
But , said the UN , the continued use of fossil fuels in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ context of a low carbon development trajectory.
” The slow rate of progress toward full electrification in sub-Saharan Africa indicates that the suggestion by a French physician to conduct COVID-19 vaccine trials “ in Africa where there are no masks , no treatment or intensive care , ” while roundly condemned as racist , somewhat accurately describes the common viewpoint that Africa is just fine without electricity , hospitals , and effective means to fight pandemic diseases .
Energy poverty – rampant in black neighborhoods in the U.S. and across most of Africa @ @ @ @ @ @ @ without the means to fight back .
Natural gas has proven to be a major weapon against energy poverty – and by inference , against deadly disease .
Ventilators , for example , become quite ineffective when power is available only intermittently .

In a recent article, International Energy Agency Executive Director Fatih Birol asserted that the “huge disruption caused by the coronavirus has highlighted how much modern societies rely on electricity.” Also adding that in many countries, electricity is critical for operating the ventilators and other medical equipment in the hospitals treating the soaring numbers of sick people.
Birol noted that electricity also ensures the timely communication of important information between governments and citizens and between doctors and patients. Yet in sub-Saharan Africa hundreds of millions of people live without any access to electricity. This, Birol states, makes these Africans far more vulnerable to disease and other dangers. It also keeps them poor.
In this country, too, energy poverty can be linked to poor health and to COVID 19. According to a 2018 U.S. Energy Information Administration report, 31 percent of Americans have struggled to pay their energy bills – half of the respondents were African-Americans. Couple that with the statement from the Centers for Disease Control that, during March, 33 percent of individuals requiring hospitalization for coronavirus were black.
This confirms results of a 2016 study that found that, on average, low-income households pay more than twice as much of their income for utilities as the median household. That study also found that “housing for the low income also tended to be less energy efficient, researchers found. Families in that group were at higher risk for respiratory diseases and stress.”
Thus it is troubling to read that the first 12 COVID 19 deaths in St. Louis, Missouri, were all African-Americans. Dr. Fredrick Echols, Director of the City of St. Louis Department of Health, squashed the rumor that African Americans are more resistant to contracting the virus, noting instead that pre-existing conditions such as diabetes and heart conditions “disproportionately affect the black community.”
Dr. Anthony Fauci, the nation’s spokesman on the pandemic, agreed that, “Diseases like diabetes, hypertension, obesity and asthma are disproportionately afflicting the minority populations, particularly the African Americans.”
Electricity, to be effective as a tool against disease, has to be affordable to be truly “accessible.” In the United States, hydrofracturing (fracking) has brought the price of natural gas so low that the cleaner burning fuel has replaced coal as the nation’s largest supplier of electricity.
The economics of natural gas, however, are in jeopardy thanks to an unrelenting war on fracking that forced New York Governor Andrew Cuomo to ban fracking in his state. Cuomo and other progressive Democrats are even working to ban new natural gas pipeline construction and even the sale and use of natural gas powered appliances.
Even presidential candidate Joe Biden in March took the Bernie Sanders position to pledge to shut down hydrofracturing. Though Biden later “clarified” his statement to imply his proposed ban would apply only on public lands, the message was clear. Hey Hey Ho Ho, Fossil Fuels Have Got To Go.
Biden has benefited from African-American political support. Rep. James Clyburn’s (D, SC) endorsement sparked Biden’s massive primary victory in the South Carolina primary and prompted other candidates to drop out of the race, ensuring Biden a huge “Super Thursday.”
However, former Cincinnati Mayor and Ohio Secretary of State Ken Blackwell argues that adopting extreme green energy policies – like banning fracking – hurts black American voters. Leaders of normally progressive liberal civil rights organizations, recognizing this, are urging Democrats to reconsider their opposition to affordable natural gas.
A recent article in Axios stated that, “in recent interviews, Revs. Al Sharpton and Jesse Jackson and National Urban League President (and former New Orleans mayor) Marc Morial said that energy costs are hitting people of color unfairly hard.” These civil rights activists are opposing any abrupt move away from natural gas, putting them at odds with environmentalists and progressive Democrats (who now seem to include Joe Biden).
Morial has been especially vocal, arguing that “Natural gas is a bit of a bridge fuel. It’s a fuel that we need to have access to because the transition to alternatives is a long-range transition.” Politicians, he said, should not debate these issues “without consultation with the leaders of the African-American communities and neighborhoods affected by these issues.” Sanders’ radical approach to energy is a major reason black Democrats stuck with Biden, who now seems to have betrayed that trust.
Jackson had told Axios in February that he supports “the call [to ban fracking] with a proper transition. In the meantime, those who are down and out have to have it.” Sharpton agreed that “natural gas is a temporary solution, but in the interim people in communities of color should not pay the brunt of suffering through cold winters.”
Meanwhile, the corona virus has begun to spread into sub-Saharan Africa, with 33 of Africa’s 54 countries reporting cases as early as March 18. An earlier report noted that northern Nigeria, which is home to 90 percent of that nation’s poor, is ripe for a pandemic outbreak. Only 24 percent of households there have access to electricity, water, and sanitation.
Indeed, the West’s refusal to assist Africans to switch from dung and wood to fossil fuel energy (instead forcing investment in renewable energy that provides carbon credits for Europeans) may trigger a massive outbreak with few tools available to fight back – despite theories that this virus cannot possibly infect people in hot climates.
Just a decade ago, the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa acknowledged that,“fossil fuels are important energy sources that play vital roles in the economies of African nations,” adding that over 80 percent of the electricity generated across the continent was from fossil fuels. Several African nations relied upon fossil fuel exports for much of their revenues. But, said the UN, the continued use of fossil fuels in Africa should take place “in the context of a low carbon development trajectory.”
The slow rate of progress toward full electrification in sub-Saharan Africa indicates that the suggestion by a French physician to conduct COVID-19 vaccine trials “in Africa where there are no masks, no treatment or intensive care,” while roundly condemned as racist, somewhat accurately describes the common viewpoint that Africa is just fine without electricity, hospitals, and effective means to fight pandemic diseases.
Energy poverty – rampant in black neighborhoods in the U.S. and across most of Africa – creates opportunities for pandemics to spread without the means to fight back. Natural gas has proven to be a major weapon against energy poverty – and by inference, against deadly disease. Ventilators, for example, become quite ineffective when power is available only intermittently.


committeeconstructivetomorrowcfactorg--2020-04-13--When the world was just as worried

When the world was just as worried

It is easy to argue that today the world is in a war only matched in the memory of the older generation by World War II .
On the morning of August 6 , 1945 , Hiroshima exploded into the first and largest high-level radiation test laboratory in the world .
Three days later , Nagasaki became the second .
Most victims died from the intense heat or blast effect .
Hundreds were to succumb later to effects of radiation- while thousands of survivors were instantaneously hit with trillions of neutrons and gamma rays we know as nuclear radiation .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ effects of radiation were needed by the U.S. military and civilian defense authorities because of the threat of nuclear war with the Soviet Union .
Children in our schools were taught to duck and cover were a bomb ever to reach the United States .
A joint U.S.-Japan program was initiated to analyze radiation effects on the Japanese population .
Doses to survivors were estimated by their locations at the time of the blasts , with a health handbook being kept by each exposed citizen in Japan .
Their medical histories were meticulously @ @ @ @ @ @ @ potential mutagenic effects .
People feared “ nuclear monsters ” .
While it was well known that some insects were altered by radiation , such never occurred in humans , In fact not only were the offspring of survivors not negatively affected , but there were benefits that we now attribute to the “ hormetic ” effect of radiation , which is the concept that while a lot of something may be bad for you a little of that something may be good for you .
The primary concern was cancer however , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , years later , were attributable to high levels of radiation among the Japanese citizens not affected by the blast but close enough to receive a high dose of radiation .
Due to the now disproven belief that a single particle of nuclear radiation could lead to cancer , called the Linear-No-Threshold or LNT theory , a much greater number of cancers were expected to appear among the population whose exposure was minimal .
Typically this amount was equivalent to a lifetime of background radiation exposure experienced in but a few seconds .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ would be seen in 3 to 10 years and other cancers in 20 or even 30 years .
After 40 years of intense study and data collection from this large Japanese population exposed to minimal radiation those things did not happen .
In fact , reported in the 1993 book by Dr. Sohei Kondo entitled “ Health Effects of Low-Level Radiation ” , these bomb survivors were outliving their unexposed peers by significant rates .
Surprisingly with countless additional studies of the benefits of low level radiation in medicine the LNT theory has @ @ @ @ @ @ @ bin of history .
What we learned about radiation , we learned from real data analysis .
Today we try and do too much with mathematic models we believe MAY simulate reality .
In virtually all cases the math equations are filled with dozens of SWAGs , which stands for Scientific Wild Ass Guesses .
The absurd predictions launched from climate models are the simplest case in point .
In 30 years of billions of dollars of government funding , not a single prediction of the Earth ’ s temperature has been close @ @ @ @ @ @ @ no harm no foul , but there has been harm in the expenditure of moneys all over the world that could have benefited the poor and public health .
Now the entire economy of the United States has been risked on mathematical models of the expansion of the corona virus Covid-19 .
When the models say each case could lead to 1.2 to 5.4 new cases ( called the R factor , the media only broadcasts the worst cases for infections and the worst case of potential mortality at a great cost to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , we will win the war against the virus through effective treatments and eventual vaccines and the economy will recover in a few years , and in fact be stronger .
Vernon Smith , Nobel Laureate in Economics writing in the April 6 edition of the Wall Street Journal explains that we will see the survival of the fittest businesses and the expansion of new ideas the quarantine has produced and that the travel and hotel industry which is not in a long term decline will bounce back quickly .
It is likely @ @ @ @ @ @ @ emergency we will learn from the media driven political opportunism that has lead to unwise decisions using very poor mathematical models .
Perhaps they will no longer be guided by a last ditch effort to pin this on a President in hopes of finally ridding him from the government previously run by an entrenched establishment .
Let me end by explaining that we build airplanes based on mathematical models entered into computer simulations of as many as 3000 parts that must work together seamlessly .
We run thousand of Computer Aided Design ( @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Aided Manufacturing ( CAM ) to keep our airplanes aloft or we would not get on them with a chance of failure as small as one percent .
It appears Boeing suffered from just such an error .
We are all suffering today from errors in mathematical models .
Yet looking at the positive side our nation has shown it is made up of the very best folks working in the trenches of medicine to care for the infected throughout our nation , putting their lives at risk as we have done in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and be better for it .
Note : The author thanks Ed Hiserodt for his assistance in reporting on the radiation impacts of the atomic bombs of World War II in his book , “ UNDEREXPOSED ” .

It is easy to argue that today the world is in a war only matched in the memory of the older generation by World War II. On the morning of August 6, 1945, Hiroshima exploded into the first and largest high-level radiation test laboratory in the world. Three days later, Nagasaki became the second. Most victims died from the intense heat or blast effect. Hundreds were to succumb later to effects of radiation- while thousands of survivors were instantaneously hit with trillions of neutrons and gamma rays we know as nuclear radiation.
In the early 1950s studies of the effects of radiation were needed by the U.S. military and civilian defense authorities because of the threat of nuclear war with the Soviet Union. Children in our schools were taught to duck and cover were a bomb ever to reach the United States.
A joint U.S.-Japan program was initiated to analyze radiation effects on the Japanese population. Doses to survivors were estimated by their locations at the time of the blasts, with a health handbook being kept by each exposed citizen in Japan. Their medical histories were meticulously recorded. Of great importance was the potential mutagenic effects. People feared “nuclear monsters”.
While it was well known that some insects were altered by radiation, such never occurred in humans, In fact not only were the offspring of survivors not negatively affected, but there were benefits that we now attribute to the “hormetic” effect of radiation, which is the concept that while a lot of something may be bad for you a little of that something may be good for you.
The primary concern was cancer however, and indeed excess cancers in the population, years later, were attributable to high levels of radiation among the Japanese citizens not affected by the blast but close enough to receive a high dose of radiation.
Due to the now disproven belief that a single particle of nuclear radiation could lead to cancer, called the Linear-No-Threshold or LNT theory, a much greater number of cancers were expected to appear among the population whose exposure was minimal. Typically this amount was equivalent to a lifetime of background radiation exposure experienced in but a few seconds. Researchers expected that excess cases of leukemia would be seen in 3 to 10 years and other cancers in 20 or even 30 years.
After 40 years of intense study and data collection from this large Japanese population exposed to minimal radiation those things did not happen. In fact, reported in the 1993 book by Dr. Sohei Kondo entitled “Health Effects of Low-Level Radiation”, these bomb survivors were outliving their unexposed peers by significant rates.
Surprisingly with countless additional studies of the benefits of low level radiation in medicine the LNT theory has not yet been placed in the dust bin of history.
What we learned about radiation, we learned from real data analysis. Today we try and do too much with mathematic models we believe MAY simulate reality. In virtually all cases the math equations are filled with dozens of SWAGs, which stands for Scientific Wild Ass Guesses. The absurd predictions launched from climate models are the simplest case in point. In 30 years of billions of dollars of government funding, not a single prediction of the Earth’s temperature has been close to being correct. You might think no harm no foul, but there has been harm in the expenditure of moneys all over the world that could have benefited the poor and public health.
Now the entire economy of the United States has been risked on mathematical models of the expansion of the corona virus Covid-19. When the models say each case could lead to 1.2 to 5.4 new cases (called the R factor, the media only broadcasts the worst cases for infections and the worst case of potential mortality at a great cost to our nation.
I am an optimist, we will win the war against the virus through effective treatments and eventual vaccines and the economy will recover in a few years, and in fact be stronger.
Vernon Smith, Nobel Laureate in Economics writing in the April 6 edition of the Wall Street Journal explains that we will see the survival of the fittest businesses and the expansion of new ideas the quarantine has produced and that the travel and hotel industry which is not in a long term decline will bounce back quickly.
It is likely that in the next pandemic type health emergency we will learn from the media driven political opportunism that has lead to unwise decisions using very poor mathematical models. Perhaps they will no longer be guided by a last ditch effort to pin this on a President in hopes of finally ridding him from the government previously run by an entrenched establishment.
Let me end by explaining that we build airplanes based on mathematical models entered into computer simulations of as many as 3000 parts that must work together seamlessly. We run thousand of Computer Aided Design (CAD) simulations that result in Computer Aided Manufacturing (CAM) to keep our airplanes aloft or we would not get on them with a chance of failure as small as one percent. It appears Boeing suffered from just such an error. We are all suffering today from errors in mathematical models. Yet looking at the positive side our nation has shown it is made up of the very best folks working in the trenches of medicine to care for the infected throughout our nation, putting their lives at risk as we have done in all past wars. We will survive and be better for it.
Note: The author thanks Ed Hiserodt for his assistance in reporting on the radiation impacts of the atomic bombs of World War II in his book, “UNDEREXPOSED”.


committeeconstructivetomorrowcfactorg--2020-04-12--CFACT: Technology to enable private conservation of oceans?

An interesting article in the Economist suggests that technological development might soon be able to plug one of the holes in a framework of environmental protection known as “ Free-Market Environmentalism.
” That could extend this alternative to command-and-control environmental regulation to a domain where private solutions have been seen as impossible : the oceans , and wide-ranging migratory fowl .
In a nutshell , free-market environmentalism differs from conventional environmentalism in terms of what it perceives as the causes of environmental degradation and what solutions to those problems might entail .
Whereas traditional environmentalism tends to focus on the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ inherently destructive of the environment .
Free-market environmentalism observes that in fact , governmental mis-management is what often leads to what pioneering researcher Garrett Hardin identified as the “ tragedy of the commons.
” Hardin observed that if a resource is not owned , with defined property rights .
Instead it is free to anyone who wants to use it and will inevitably be over-consumed .
We have seen this play out over time as air pollution ( air is a commons ) , water pollution , plastic pollution , over-farming , over-fishing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
By contrast , free-market environmentalism observes that historically , it was often establishing and enforcing property rights that led to most successful environmental protection .
That in the main , environmental destruction which comes , as Hardin pointed out , not because people hate the environment , but because there is a lack of property rights .
This to a point where invested owners have a stake in conserving and protecting the environment because it is in their self-interest to do so .
One of the problems that free-market environmentalism could not @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ( my term ) pollution .
That is , problems such as air pollution , ocean pollution , and climate change , feature pollutants moving freely between regulatory jurisdictions .
All that may have wildly different and often incompatible views of property rights which resist management by property rights .
Note that such problems are also generally impossible to address through regulation .
This as different regulatory regimes will also have different views of what they want to protect , and for what purposes .
Yet technology may be injecting a new element @ @ @ @ @ @ @ An element which might indeed allow the development of enforceable property rights over the global commons of the world ’ s oceans .
An article in the Economist describes the development of new technology that could dramatically ( and affordably ) expand our ability to not only track destructive activities in the oceans , but to trace them back to particular actors and locations .
The article describes an initiative by the U.S. Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency ( DARPA ) , which , though focused on military defense , has also given @ @ @ @ @ @ @ by which you are almost certainly reading this column .
DARPA ’ s initiative is to distribute many thousands of inexpensive , but networked sensors in the oceans that could detect , “ …water temperature to wave heights , weather conditions , nearby wildlife and more .
All this would then be made freely available to scientific and commercial users.
” One example is that floating sensors at the ocean ’ s surface , for example , could track migratory bird patterns and populations by the frequency of their landing to perch on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ course , very early days for this technology , and there is the question of whether the sensors themselves might constitute pollution in some sense , but one could envision using such sensors to track threatened whale populations for example , and identify which vessels , from which point of origin , are harvesting or otherwise threatening endangered whales .
That in turn could lead to countries ( or private conservation groups ) to potentially secure , monitor , and enforce “ ownership ” of , migratory whale populations .
Of course , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ t “ own ” whales , or put a price on them , but that same argument was made over the protection of elephants in Africa , to African rhinos , to managing coastal fisheries in the US and Canada .
In all three of those cases , establishing a rights-based management regime led to superior environmental and economic outcomes .
For those who favor using markets and property rights to protect and manage our environment , technological advances like this might let us expand the framework of free-market environmentalism into realms formerly @ @ @ @ @ @ @ global atmosphere , the oceans , and migratory wildlife , which have often proven unmanageable by regulatory regimes that are frequently incompatible from one country to another .

An interesting article in the Economist suggests that technological development might soon be able to plug one of the holes in a framework of environmental protection known as “Free-Market Environmentalism.” That could extend this alternative to command-and-control environmental regulation to a domain where private solutions have been seen as impossible: the oceans, and wide-ranging migratory fowl.
In a nutshell, free-market environmentalism differs from conventional environmentalism in terms of what it perceives as the causes of environmental degradation and what solutions to those problems might entail. Whereas traditional environmentalism tends to focus on the idea that capitalism and market economies are inherently destructive of the environment. Free-market environmentalism observes that in fact, governmental mis-management is what often leads to what pioneering researcher Garrett Hardin identified as the “tragedy of the commons.”
Hardin observed that if a resource is not owned, with defined property rights. Instead it is free to anyone who wants to use it and will inevitably be over-consumed. We have seen this play out over time as air pollution (air is a commons), water pollution, plastic pollution, over-farming, over-fishing, over-grazing, and just about over-everything.
By contrast, free-market environmentalism observes that historically, it was often establishing and enforcing property rights that led to most successful environmental protection. That in the main, environmental destruction which comes, as Hardin pointed out, not because people hate the environment, but because there is a lack of property rights. This to a point where invested owners have a stake in conserving and protecting the environment because it is in their self-interest to do so.
One of the problems that free-market environmentalism could not reconcile in its earlier forms was trans-jurisdictional (my term) pollution. That is, problems such as air pollution, ocean pollution, and climate change, feature pollutants moving freely between regulatory jurisdictions. All that may have wildly different and often incompatible views of property rights which resist management by property rights. Note that such problems are also generally impossible to address through regulation. This as different regulatory regimes will also have different views of what they want to protect, and for what purposes.
Yet technology may be injecting a new element into the equation of environmental protection. An element which might indeed allow the development of enforceable property rights over the global commons of the world’s oceans.
An article in the Economist describes the development of new technology that could dramatically (and affordably) expand our ability to not only track destructive activities in the oceans, but to trace them back to particular actors and locations. The article describes an initiative by the U.S. Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA), which, though focused on military defense, has also given us such technologies as the internet, by which you are almost certainly reading this column. DARPA’s initiative is to distribute many thousands of inexpensive, but networked sensors in the oceans that could detect, “…water temperature to wave heights, weather conditions, nearby wildlife and more. All this would then be made freely available to scientific and commercial users.” One example is that floating sensors at the ocean’s surface, for example, could track migratory bird patterns and populations by the frequency of their landing to perch on a sensor.
It is, of course, very early days for this technology, and there is the question of whether the sensors themselves might constitute pollution in some sense, but one could envision using such sensors to track threatened whale populations for example, and identify which vessels, from which point of origin, are harvesting or otherwise threatening endangered whales. That in turn could lead to countries (or private conservation groups) to potentially secure, monitor, and enforce “ownership” of, migratory whale populations. Of course, some will argue that we can’t “own” whales, or put a price on them, but that same argument was made over the protection of elephants in Africa, to African rhinos, to managing coastal fisheries in the US and Canada. In all three of those cases, establishing a rights-based management regime led to superior environmental and economic outcomes.
For those who favor using markets and property rights to protect and manage our environment, technological advances like this might let us expand the framework of free-market environmentalism into realms formerly thought out of its reach: the global atmosphere, the oceans, and migratory wildlife, which have often proven unmanageable by regulatory regimes that are frequently incompatible from one country to another.


committeeconstructivetomorrowcfactorg--2020-04-11--Apollo XIII +50: Watch this excellent NASA video about how they brought our astronauts home

As we cope with pandemic , remember that give an American a roll of duct tape and we can get @ @ @ @ @ ago today Apollo XIII launched into space .
Check out this excellent 30 minute documentary @ @ @ @ @ interesting facts about how they brought the crew home safely .
Much of it is @ @ @ @ @ own words .
CFACT proudly calls many astronauts and space pioneers friends .
They are @ @ @ @ @ have little tolerance for politically correct science .
You need better than PC when your @ @ @ @ @ ,

“Houston, we had a problem.”
As we cope with pandemic, remember that give an American a roll of duct tape and we can get through anything.
Share the facts from NASA:
Fifty years ago today Apollo XIII launched into space. Check out this excellent 30 minute documentary NASA just posted with many interesting facts about how they brought the crew home safely. Much of it is in the astronaut’s own words.
CFACT proudly calls many astronauts and space pioneers friends. They are great to work with and have little tolerance for politically correct science. You need better than PC when your life is on the line,


committeeconstructivetomorrowcfactorg--2020-04-11--COVID 19: Computer models reveal their limitations

Computer models compiled by scientists , statisticians and public health experts to predict the number of deaths resulting from COVID-19 have been drastically scaled back this past week .
This is hopeful news , but has wider implications .
There also should be a serious look-back , given the wildly inflated early predictions of numbers of deaths in the United States .
Computer models are only as good as the assumptions built into them .
If the inputs are faulty , the predictions will have shown to be flawed based on real life outcomes .
This is playing out with @ @ @ @ @ @ @ havoc worldwide .
This modeling problem has ample precedent .
Flawed computer models have long been rampant in predicting planetary global warming for at least the last 30 years , even as they continue to influence public policy .
Perhaps the most famous falsehood was the “ hockey stick ” prediction of rapid warming of the Earth beginning in the late 19th century after centuries in which the average global temperature was shown—erroneously—to be flat-lined , thereby ignoring prior warming periods .
Demonstrably false climate predictions by the biggest charlatan of our time @ @ @ @ @ @ @ alone could fill a hard drive , and have regularly been documented by CFACT ( e.g.
, here and here ) .
The classic response from climate alarmists following a prediction shown to be wrong is to move the goalposts .
Global warming predictions then and now have been so flawed , the label itself has been renamed to “ climate change , ” which was clever since climate always is changing , so the drumbeat goes on .
Unrecognized by man-made global warming proponents is that changes to climate are influenced by @ @ @ @ @ @ @ will be , no matter how many trillions of dollars are spent on a “ Green New Deal.
” Accordingly , it is folly to upend the economy and livelihoods for pretentious climate models .
In a much more compressed timespan , computer model predictions for the number of deaths from COVID-19 are now showing the death toll to be equivalent of a bad flu season rather than the six-figure or seven-figure projections made just days and weeks earlier .
The White House Coronavirus Task Force has been relying on the COVID-19 model @ @ @ @ @ @ @ State ) Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation .
In just one week , from April 2nd , the Institute reduced the number of projected deaths from the virus from approximately 93,500 to 60,000 – an astounding 36 percent decline .
As many as 60,000 deaths from COVID-19 , or related to this virus , is still substantial and tragic .
However , if that number pans out in the months ahead , it would be lower than the 61,000 deaths in America from influenza in the 2017-18 period .
The Institute ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ back the projected number of hospital beds , intensive care unit beds and ventilators .
During the first week in April , projections for needed hospital beds precipitously dropped from about 262,000 to 95,000 .
The lower projected number of deaths is due in part to social distancing to the point of shutting down the “ non-essential ” areas of the private economy ; otherwise , the death rate from the more contagious COVID-19 likely would have exceeded a bad flu season .
Thousands of businesses have closed and 17 million people are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of New York , New Orleans , Los Angeles and countless other places are near empty .
There is more going on with the declining death rate predictions from coronavirus than social distancing – especially since the recent virus computer model predictions already assumed distancing measures .
Increasingly , the computer model assumptions are being seriously challenged , along with the necessity of shutting down so much of the economy to the detriment of millions of Americans .
One reason for the sharp drop of projected deaths from coronavirus is that many Americans @ @ @ @ @ @ @ before the public health emergency was declared in March , particularly in California and Washington State , without being reported as such .
Outbreaks of influenza were reported in California around the New Year , which likely spread from the thousands of Chinese traveling daily into the state throughout the winter , which subsequently provided residents some degree of “ herd immunity ” to COVID-19 .
The rapid decline in projected COVID-19 deaths does not mean U.S. residents are out of the woods .
New York City , Detroit and other hot spots @ @ @ @ @ @ @ public health impact of the coronavirus heightens the need for the federal government and states to re-open the private economy sooner rather than later .
Doing so would preclude further economic catastrophe , while maintaining social distancing measures and protecting vulnerable populations .

Computer models compiled by scientists, statisticians and public health experts to predict the number of deaths resulting from COVID-19 have been drastically scaled back this past week. This is hopeful news, but has wider implications. There also should be a serious look-back, given the wildly inflated early predictions of numbers of deaths in the United States.
Computer models are only as good as the assumptions built into them. If the inputs are faulty, the predictions will have shown to be flawed based on real life outcomes. This is playing out with the coronavirus models, and wreacking economic havoc worldwide. This modeling problem has ample precedent.
Flawed computer models have long been rampant in predicting planetary global warming for at least the last 30 years, even as they continue to influence public policy. Perhaps the most famous falsehood was the “hockey stick” prediction of rapid warming of the Earth beginning in the late 19th century after centuries in which the average global temperature was shown—erroneously—to be flat-lined, thereby ignoring prior warming periods.
Demonstrably false climate predictions by the biggest charlatan of our time, former Vice President Al Gore, alone could fill a hard drive, and have regularly been documented by CFACT (e.g., here and here). The classic response from climate alarmists following a prediction shown to be wrong is to move the goalposts.
Global warming predictions then and now have been so flawed, the label itself has been renamed to “climate change,” which was clever since climate always is changing, so the drumbeat goes on. Unrecognized by man-made global warming proponents is that changes to climate are influenced by a variety of natural factors and always will be, no matter how many trillions of dollars are spent on a “Green New Deal.” Accordingly, it is folly to upend the economy and livelihoods for pretentious climate models.
In a much more compressed timespan, computer model predictions for the number of deaths from COVID-19 are now showing the death toll to be equivalent of a bad flu season rather than the six-figure or seven-figure projections made just days and weeks earlier.
The White House Coronavirus Task Force has been relying on the COVID-19 model produced by the University of Washington (State) Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation. In just one week, from April 2nd, the Institute reduced the number of projected deaths from the virus from approximately 93,500 to 60,000 – an astounding 36 percent decline.
As many as 60,000 deaths from COVID-19, or related to this virus, is still substantial and tragic. However, if that number pans out in the months ahead, it would be lower than the 61,000 deaths in America from influenza in the 2017-18 period.
The Institute’s computer model also has quickly scaled back the projected number of hospital beds, intensive care unit beds and ventilators. During the first week in April, projections for needed hospital beds precipitously dropped from about 262,000 to 95,000.
The lower projected number of deaths is due in part to social distancing to the point of shutting down the “non-essential” areas of the private economy; otherwise, the death rate from the more contagious COVID-19 likely would have exceeded a bad flu season. Thousands of businesses have closed and 17 million people are now unemployed. The once bustling streets of New York, New Orleans, Los Angeles and countless other places are near empty.
There is more going on with the declining death rate predictions from coronavirus than social distancing – especially since the recent virus computer model predictions already assumed distancing measures. Increasingly, the computer model assumptions are being seriously challenged, along with the necessity of shutting down so much of the economy to the detriment of millions of Americans.
One reason for the sharp drop of projected deaths from coronavirus is that many Americans already may have had the virus long before the public health emergency was declared in March, particularly in California and Washington State, without being reported as such. Outbreaks of influenza were reported in California around the New Year, which likely spread from the thousands of Chinese traveling daily into the state throughout the winter, which subsequently provided residents some degree of “herd immunity” to COVID-19.
The rapid decline in projected COVID-19 deaths does not mean U.S. residents are out of the woods. New York City, Detroit and other hot spots remain in crisis. But the diminishing public health impact of the coronavirus heightens the need for the federal government and states to re-open the private economy sooner rather than later. Doing so would preclude further economic catastrophe, while maintaining social distancing measures and protecting vulnerable populations.


committeeconstructivetomorrowcfactorg--2020-04-11--Russia salivating to become world’s biggest oil producer

Imagine if Exxon attempted to buy Venezuela ’ s oil industry ?
Well , nothing to fret about as Russia is stepping up to the plate to buy the Venezuela ’ s oil industry .
Russia ’ s state-owned oil giant Rosneft is eager to take control of PdVSA , the bankrupt Venezuelan oil company that explores for and produces most of the country ’ s oil .
The Associated Press ( AP ) reported on March 28 , 2020 that Russia ’ s Rosneft has transferred its assets in Venezuela to a company fully owned by Vladimir Putin ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to shield Russia ’ s largest oil producer from U.S. sanctions .
Russia looks set to be buying Venezuela ’ s oil .
Like , all of it .
Russia ’ s Rosneft is a big lender to Venezuelan ’ s PdVSA , and PdVSA is broke so Rosneft wants to be paid .
So , it makes sense that the Venezuelan government would sell something .
Looking back a few years to 2016 , Maduro secured a fresh loan by giving Russian oil giant Rosneft a 49.9-percent stake in Citgo as collateral @ @ @ @ @ @ @ percent held by Venezuela ’ s state-owned oil company PDVSA are also collateralized under a bond issue owned by Russia .
Ironically , if Moscow lets Venezuela default on its debts , then Russia would actually be able to exercise its lien on Venezuela ’ s most valuable asset : U.S.-based oil giant Citgo .
Then in October 2019 , a story in Venezuela ’ s El National newspaper was making the rounds in Russian media – reporting that Russian oil giant , Rosneft , was planning on taking over Venezuela ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Venezuela ) .
In exchange , Russia was rumored to be offering debt relief to the struggling Latin American Country .
As Washington crushes the country with sanctions , Venezuela is unable to pay its bills and may be selling their prized possession to their biggest debtor , Russia .
Very timely , as Putin strives to be the country that dominates the world ’ s oil and natural gas , and ultimately control the world .
Vladimir Putin ’ s funding of anti-fracking efforts in America are gaining success in Washington .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ Washington are seriously considering national anti-fracking legislation that will negatively impact the USA , the largest oil producer in the world .
This to further establish Putin ’ s ’ position , by reestablishing Russia as the top supplier to the world and fulfill his end goal to control worldwide .
Now the COPID-19 crisis is hurting demand and the price of oil is tanking .
With a price war being led by Saudi Arabia and Russia , it is crushing the price per barrel , putting further financial pressures on the fracking @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a net oil exporter .
California and national political pressures are now pursuing further legislative efforts to continue reducing fracking and all in-state oil production nationwide to increase its oil dependency on foreign nations .
Once Putin has his domination of the industry , he ’ ll have control of California , the 5th largest economy in the world , and the American continent .
As discussed at length in Energy Made Easy , the Weaponization of Energy , Chapter 11 , Russia knows that a major ( and perhaps the principal ) @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , was their greater access to oil , petroleum , natural gas , and coal , of which were not available to the Axis Powers of Germany , Italy and Japan .
These were the vital energy sources the Allies needed for fueling their aircraft carriers , battleships , planes , tanks and armor , trucks , troop carriers and weaponry .
In addition this access to energy has enabled the West to economically lead the world for over seventy years .
China , Russia , Iran , and North Korea know that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the Paris Accord can not support vast militaries nor the infrastructure industries that use deep-earth minerals/fuels to “ make thousands of products and move things ” to support economies that are busily increasing their use of fossil fuels .
Russia is now in a full-fledged battle with western powers , and its affiliated allies over the fossil fuel industry .
While the rest of the world is attempting to incorporate renewable electricity from industrial wind and solar onto its electrical grids and pouring government monies into building momentum for a carbon-free society , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Energy has always been a main factor in human development , and that is especially true of today ’ s complex international , political , and economic systems that have been in place since the end of WWII .
Whoever dominates energy , controls the world .
Oil and natural gas are the weapons now being used—much as militaries have always been used—for both offensive and defensive purposes .
Unfortunately , no one weaponizes its oil and natural gas resources in the systematic way Russia does .
Russia uses its political influence on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Central Asia , and any country dependent on Russia for energy .
Russia is one of the world ’ s largest oil producers and with the acquisition of the Venezuelan oil industry it will be the largest producer in the World .
As we monitor the Venezuelan financial events and their impact on the oil industry over the next few months , it may be timely to consider signing up for classes to brush up on your Russian language !

Imagine if Exxon attempted to buy Venezuela’s oil industry? Well, nothing to fret about as Russia is stepping up to the plate to buy the Venezuela’s oil industry. Russia’s state-owned oil giant Rosneft is eager to take control of PdVSA, the bankrupt Venezuelan oil company that explores for and produces most of the country’s oil.
The Associated Press (AP) reported on March 28, 2020 that Russia’s Rosneft has transferred its assets in Venezuela to a company fully owned by Vladimir Putin’s government, a move apparently intended to shield Russia’s largest oil producer from U.S. sanctions. Russia looks set to be buying Venezuela’s oil. Like, all of it.
Russia’s Rosneft is a big lender to Venezuelan’s PdVSA, and PdVSA is broke so Rosneft wants to be paid. So, it makes sense that the Venezuelan government would sell something.
Looking back a few years to 2016, Maduro secured a fresh loan by giving Russian oil giant Rosneft a 49.9-percent stake in Citgo as collateral. In addition, the remaining 50.1 percent held by Venezuela’s state-owned oil company PDVSA are also collateralized under a bond issue owned by Russia. Ironically, if Moscow lets Venezuela default on its debts, then Russia would actually be able to exercise its lien on Venezuela’s most valuable asset: U.S.-based oil giant Citgo.
Then in October 2019, a story in Venezuela’s El National newspaper was making the rounds in Russian media – reporting that Russian oil giant, Rosneft, was planning on taking over Venezuela’s National Oil Company PDVSA (Petróleos de Venezuela). In exchange, Russia was rumored to be offering debt relief to the struggling Latin American Country.
As Washington crushes the country with sanctions, Venezuela is unable to pay its bills and may be selling their prized possession to their biggest debtor, Russia. Very timely, as Putin strives to be the country that dominates the world’s oil and natural gas, and ultimately control the world.
Vladimir Putin’s funding of anti-fracking efforts in America are gaining success in Washington. This as Putin’s supporters in Washington are seriously considering national anti-fracking legislation that will negatively impact the USA, the largest oil producer in the world. This to further establish Putin’s’ position, by reestablishing Russia as the top supplier to the world and fulfill his end goal to control worldwide.
Now the COPID-19 crisis is hurting demand and the price of oil is tanking. With a price war being led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, it is crushing the price per barrel, putting further financial pressures on the fracking industry that has elevated America to be a net oil exporter.
California and national political pressures are now pursuing further legislative efforts to continue reducing fracking and all in-state oil production nationwide to increase its oil dependency on foreign nations. Once Putin has his domination of the industry, he’ll have control of California, the 5th largest economy in the world, and the American continent.
As discussed at length in Energy Made Easy, the Weaponization of Energy, Chapter 11, Russia knows that a major (and perhaps the principal) reason the Allies won World War II, was their greater access to oil, petroleum, natural gas, and coal, of which were not available to the Axis Powers of Germany, Italy and Japan. These were the vital energy sources the Allies needed for fueling their aircraft carriers, battleships, planes, tanks and armor, trucks, troop carriers and weaponry. In addition this access to energy has enabled the West to economically lead the world for over seventy years.
China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea know that the desire for renewable electricity embodied in the Paris Accord cannot support vast militaries nor the infrastructure industries that use deep-earth minerals/fuels to “make thousands of products and move things” to support economies that are busily increasing their use of fossil fuels.
Russia is now in a full-fledged battle with western powers, and its affiliated allies over the fossil fuel industry. While the rest of the world is attempting to incorporate renewable electricity from industrial wind and solar onto its electrical grids and pouring government monies into building momentum for a carbon-free society, Russia is going the opposite direction.
Energy has always been a main factor in human development, and that is especially true of today’s complex international, political, and economic systems that have been in place since the end of WWII. Whoever dominates energy, controls the world. Oil and natural gas are the weapons now being used—much as militaries have always been used—for both offensive and defensive purposes.
Unfortunately, no one weaponizes its oil and natural gas resources in the systematic way Russia does. Russia uses its political influence on the European Union (EU), Central Asia, and any country dependent on Russia for energy. Russia is one of the world’s largest oil producers and with the acquisition of the Venezuelan oil industry it will be the largest producer in the World.
As we monitor the Venezuelan financial events and their impact on the oil industry over the next few months, it may be timely to consider signing up for classes to brush up on your Russian language!
This article originally appeared at EurAsia Review.


committeeconstructivetomorrowcfactorg--2020-04-10--Ann Coulter blasts “fake environmentalism” in CFACT livestream

While the coronavirus crisis closed college campuses and pushed classes online , CFACT ’ s Collegians weren ’ t going to let that stop them from making a difference this Spring !
The CFACT chapter at the University of Minnesota , Twin Cities hosted an online livestream discussion with American political pundit and author Ann Coulter last night to get her take on the issues of the day , and to educate their peers in what exercising free speech looks like .
Hundreds of viewers tuned in for the event , hailing from all over the world .
Participants from @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , Canada , and all over the United States joined CFACT ’ s webcast to hear what Ann Coulter had to say .
Evan Smith , student president of the CFACT club at Minnesota , did a fantastic job moderating the discussion and representing CFACT .
He started Q & A off with an excellent question , asking : “ When it comes to the environmental issues , which have been completely taken over by the radical Left , what about those conservatives like myself who care about the environment but reject the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ we as conservatives love the forests and waters and even deserts , ” Coulter answered .
“ Those are real environmental issues .
The Left has distorted the environment to make it only about climate change.
” Coulter hammered the so-called “ green ” agenda throughout her talk .
“ I think liberals use a fake environmentalism to push their radical agenda of societal change through climate policies and the Green New Deal , but of course real environmentalism is a conservative value…Those who explored our lands and came to cherish the things @ @ @ @ @ @ @ addressed the problem of Leftism on America ’ s college campuses , when Evan pitched her a question from the viewers about how to take the nation ’ s institutions of higher education back from liberals .
Coulter explained she thinks the main problem with colleges and universities is guaranteed loans from government , which make schools think they can do whatever they want and get away with it .
If you had more private institutions , and perhaps even the schools themselv es , as the main source of funding , you @ @ @ @ @ @ @ much more favorable to other points of view .
When the government creates a monopoly on something , such as student loans , you ’ ll see competition and innovation go way down .
CFACT ’ s Director of Collegians , Adam Houser , addressed the crowd at the beginning of the event , and explained some of the shameful things the radical greens are doing during the coronavirus crisis .
“ Did you know that some are claiming the coronavirus is somehow Mother Nature ’ s revenge for climate change , mining @ @ @ @ @ @ @ what Pope Francis and even the Democratic Socialists of America are claiming .
It ’ s shameful.
” For those of you who weren ’ t able to tune in live for the great discussion , never fear !
We will have the video recap up on the Collegians website at cfactcampus.org very soon .
To all those who donated to make this event possible , thank you .
We look forward to hosting more great exercises of our First Amendment right !
During these uncertain times , I ’ m prouder than @ @ @ @ @ @ @ who are not letting anything get in the way of their mission to fight for truth .

While the coronavirus crisis closed college campuses and pushed classes online, CFACT’s Collegians weren’t going to let that stop them from making a difference this Spring!
The CFACT chapter at the University of Minnesota, Twin Cities hosted an online livestream discussion with American political pundit and author Ann Coulter last night to get her take on the issues of the day, and to educate their peers in what exercising free speech looks like.
Hundreds of viewers tuned in for the event, hailing from all over the world. Participants from Australia, Mexico, Luxembourg, Britain, Canada, and all over the United States joined CFACT’s webcast to hear what Ann Coulter had to say.
Evan Smith, student president of the CFACT club at Minnesota, did a fantastic job moderating the discussion and representing CFACT.
He started Q&A off with an excellent question, asking: “When it comes to the environmental issues, which have been completely taken over by the radical Left, what about those conservatives like myself who care about the environment but reject the radicalism?”
“Of course, we as conservatives love the forests and waters and even deserts,” Coulter answered. “Those are real environmental issues. The Left has distorted the environment to make it only about climate change.”
Coulter hammered the so-called “green” agenda throughout her talk.
“I think liberals use a fake environmentalism to push their radical agenda of societal change through climate policies and the Green New Deal, but of course real environmentalism is a conservative value…Those who explored our lands and came to cherish the things that make America beautiful.”
Coulter also addressed the problem of Leftism on America’s college campuses, when Evan pitched her a question from the viewers about how to take the nation’s institutions of higher education back from liberals.
Coulter explained she thinks the main problem with colleges and universities is guaranteed loans from government, which make schools think they can do whatever they want and get away with it. If you had more private institutions, and perhaps even the schools themselv es, as the main source of funding, you’d find the universities to be much more favorable to other points of view.
When the government creates a monopoly on something, such as student loans, you’ll see competition and innovation go way down.
CFACT’s Director of Collegians, Adam Houser, addressed the crowd at the beginning of the event, and explained some of the shameful things the radical greens are doing during the coronavirus crisis.
“Did you know that some are claiming the coronavirus is somehow Mother Nature’s revenge for climate change, mining, and logging? That’s what Pope Francis and even the Democratic Socialists of America are claiming. It’s shameful.”
For those of you who weren’t able to tune in live for the great discussion, never fear! We will have the video recap up on the Collegians website at cfactcampus.org very soon.
To all those who donated to make this event possible, thank you. We look forward to hosting more great exercises of our First Amendment right!
During these uncertain times, I’m prouder than ever of our great students like Evan who are not letting anything get in the way of their mission to fight for truth.