theamericanconservative--2020-03-14--Did Maryland Police Shoot and Kill a Sleeping Man?

“ The constitution is dead ” was the last tweet ever sent by 21-year-old Duncan Socrates Lemp .
On Thursday morning at 4:30 a.m. , a Montgomery County SWAT team killed Lemp during a violent attack on his family ’ s home in the affluent Washington suburb of Potomac , Maryland .
Why did the SWAT team attack the home as Lemp was sleeping ?
The initial county police press release referred only to “ firearms offenses.
” County police spokeswoman Mary Davison refused to disclose either the details of Lemp ’ s alleged offense or the affidavit used to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ notified me that my press inquiries were being handled under the Maryland Public Information Act which entitles government agencies to delay responding for weeks or months .
Even the search warrant used to justify the raid is reportedly sealed for 30 days .
This Blue Wall of Silence is doing nothing to slow the cascade of allegations on social media that Lemp was murdered .
According to Rene Sandler , a former prosecutor who is representing the Lemp family , Montgomery County police fired into the bedroom where Lemp and his pregnant girlfriend @ @ @ @ @ @ @ was followed by two flash-bang grenades .
The Supreme Court of North Carolina last month labeled flash-bangs a “ weapon of mass death and destruction , ” and a 2019 federal appeals court decision noted that flash bangs are “ four times louder than a 12-gauge shotgun blast ” with “ a powerful enough concussive effect to break windows and put holes in walls.
” Criminal defense lawyer Clay Conrad observed in 2010 , flash-bangs are “ just an assault .
These things are designed to blind and deafen… You ’ re intentionally @ @ @ @ @ @ @ bombs ring out at 4:30 a.m. , it is not surprising that someone gets killed in the commotion .
Montgomery County police have offered no explanation for the timing of the raid .
Instead , they issued a press release late on the day of the killing announcing a “ police-involved shooting ” — a weasel phrase preferred by police departments and much of the media nowadays .
After Lemp , who was a software developer , was wounded , the police handcuffed the surviving family members and his girlfriend while conducting an @ @ @ @ @ @ @ was pronounced dead at the scene .
On Friday evening , the police department posted photos of five firearms ( none of which were apparently illegal in themselves ) they seized during the raid but omitted including a photo of Lemp ’ s bullet-ridden corpse .
The police also modified their story to assert that Lemp had “ confronted ” the police officers .
But this could simply mean that he stood up after the shooting or took a step towards the window from where shots were entering .
The police department has @ @ @ @ @ @ @ or any other dangerous device when he was slain .
Is the version of events that Sanders offers unfair to the police ?
SWAT team members were reportedly wearing body cams .
The ACLU of Maryland is demanding that the police “ must be transparent and release all body camera footage ” of the raid on Lemp ’ s home .
The county government ’ s refusal to answer questions or to disclose the body cam footage is doing nothing to help its credibility .
Why was Lemp targeted ?
Lawyer Sandler said @ @ @ @ @ @ @ as a “ prohibited person ” —meaning that he was prohibited from owning firearms .
That could mean simply that he had a permit to use medical marijuana —a violation that would apply to tens of thousands of Maryland gun owners who use marijuana despite federal law prohibiting gunownership combined with pot smoking .
A check of Montgomery County court records [ EDIT NOTE : APPARENTLY UNABLE TO SAVE SPECIFIC PAGE WITH RECORD ] revealed one offense for Lemp : a speeding ticket from last year .
Court records state that Lemp was @ @ @ @ @ @ @ he was towering enough to terrify a SWAT team into opening fire without warning .
Lemp was apparently a member of some online pro-gun groups and had allegedly expressed interest in joining a militia .
His Instagram page shows two photos with the motto “ Sic Semper Tyrannis ” —the Virginia “ Thus Always to Tyrants ” state motto , including one photo showing firearms held high .
Checking his Facebook page on Friday morning , I was surprised that he and I had seven mutual friends , including a savvy libertarian lawyer @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s political beliefs or associations have any role on his fatal targeting by the Montgomery County police ?
Maryland has a long history of deadly SWAT raids that kill innocent people or dogs — lots of dogs .
After Maryland police wrongfully raided a mayor ’ s house and killed his canines in 2008 , the legislature required police to report on every SWAT raid .
Between 2010 and 2014 , police in Maryland conducted over 8000 SWAT raids , killing nine people and injuring almost a hundred , as well as killing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ spur the Maryland legislature to end SWAT recordkeeping .
Montgomery County police have refused to disclose the name of the police officer or officers who killed Lemp .
Maryland police are protected by the so-called “ Law Enforcement Officers Bill of Rights ” that prohibits questioning a police officer for 10 days after any incident in which he used deadly force .
A 2019 George Washington Law Review nationwide survey revealed that 98 % of police chiefs believed that delaying interrogations of police after a shooting can impede investigations but police unions ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ police chief commented that “ showing evidence in advance allows [ police ] to tailor their lies to fit the evidence , ” while another police chief observed that that process simply gives police suspects “ time to fabricate a better lie.
” Another barrier against finding the truth out about is the Potomac SWAT raid is that Maryland treats police falsifying evidence as the equivalent of jaywalking .
A Baltimore police officer was found guilty in 2018 of “ fabricating evidence in a case in which his own body-camera footage showed him @ @ @ @ @ @ @ then acting as if he had just discovered them.
” The man who was arrested for those drugs was locked up for six months before the charge was dropped and he was released .
The policeman kept his job because , as the Baltimore Sun explained , “ Under Maryland law , officers are only removed automatically if convicted of a felony .
Fabricating evidence and misconduct in office are both misdemeanors.
” An ACLU lawyer groused that he “ can not imagine a more screwed-up , idiotic way of trying to manage @ @ @ @ @ @ @ office ” than continuing to employ a cop convicted for fabricating evidence .
Was Duncan Lemp correct that “ the constitution is dead ” ?
One answer will be found in whether Montgomery County police face any consequence for his death .
Unfortunately , the legal playing field in Maryland is profoundly tilted in favor of official killers .
James Bovard is the author of Lost Rights , Attention Deficit Democracy , and Public Policy Hooligan .
He is also a USA Today columnist .
Follow him on Twitter @ JimBovard .

“The constitution is dead” was the last tweet ever sent by 21-year-old Duncan Socrates Lemp. On Thursday morning at 4:30 a.m., a Montgomery County SWAT team killed Lemp during a violent attack on his family’s home in the affluent Washington suburb of Potomac, Maryland.
Why did the SWAT team attack the home as Lemp was sleeping? The initial county police press release referred only to “firearms offenses.” County police spokeswoman Mary Davison refused to disclose either the details of Lemp’s alleged offense or the affidavit used to justify the raid. Instead, she notified me that my press inquiries were being handled under the Maryland Public Information Act which entitles government agencies to delay responding for weeks or months.
Even the search warrant used to justify the raid is reportedly sealed for 30 days. This Blue Wall of Silence is doing nothing to slow the cascade of allegations on social media that Lemp was murdered.
According to Rene Sandler, a former prosecutor who is representing the Lemp family, Montgomery County police fired into the bedroom where Lemp and his pregnant girlfriend were sleeping without warning. The gunfire was followed by two flash-bang grenades. The Supreme Court of North Carolina last month labeled flash-bangs a “weapon of mass death and destruction,” and a 2019 federal appeals court decision noted that flash bangs are “four times louder than a 12-gauge shotgun blast” with “a powerful enough concussive effect to break windows and put holes in walls.” Criminal defense lawyer Clay Conrad observed in 2010, flash-bangs are “just an assault. These things are designed to blind and deafen… You’re intentionally injuring people.”
And when gunfire and bombs ring out at 4:30 a.m., it is not surprising that someone gets killed in the commotion. Montgomery County police have offered no explanation for the timing of the raid. Instead, they issued a press release late on the day of the killing announcing a “police-involved shooting” — a weasel phrase preferred by police departments and much of the media nowadays.
After Lemp, who was a software developer, was wounded, the police handcuffed the surviving family members and his girlfriend while conducting an exhaustive search of the house. Lemp was pronounced dead at the scene. On Friday evening, the police department posted photos of five firearms (none of which were apparently illegal in themselves) they seized during the raid but omitted including a photo of Lemp’s bullet-ridden corpse. The police also modified their story to assert that Lemp had “confronted” the police officers. But this could simply mean that he stood up after the shooting or took a step towards the window from where shots were entering. The police department has not asserted that Lemp had a firearm or any other dangerous device when he was slain.
Is the version of events that Sanders offers unfair to the police? SWAT team members were reportedly wearing body cams. The ACLU of Maryland is demanding that the police “must be transparent and release all body camera footage” of the raid on Lemp’s home. The county government’s refusal to answer questions or to disclose the body cam footage is doing nothing to help its credibility.
Why was Lemp targeted? Lawyer Sandler said that the search warrant referred to Lemp as a “prohibited person” —meaning that he was prohibited from owning firearms. That could mean simply that he had a permit to use medical marijuana —a violation that would apply to tens of thousands of Maryland gun owners who use marijuana despite federal law prohibiting gun ownership combined with pot smoking. A check of Montgomery County court records revealed one offense for Lemp: a speeding ticket from last year. Court records state that Lemp was only 5′ 8″ and 145 pounds but he was towering enough to terrify a SWAT team into opening fire without warning.
Lemp was apparently a member of some online pro-gun groups and had allegedly expressed interest in joining a militia. His Instagram page shows two photos with the motto “Sic Semper Tyrannis”—the Virginia “Thus Always to Tyrants” state motto, including one photo showing firearms held high. Checking his Facebook page on Friday morning, I was surprised that he and I had seven mutual friends, including a savvy libertarian lawyer lady from California. Did Lemp’s political beliefs or associations have any role on his fatal targeting by the Montgomery County police?
Maryland has a long history of deadly SWAT raids that kill innocent people or dogs — lots of dogs. After Maryland police wrongfully raided a mayor’s house and killed his canines in 2008, the legislature required police to report on every SWAT raid. Between 2010 and 2014, police in Maryland conducted over 8000 SWAT raids, killing nine people and injuring almost a hundred, as well as killing 14 animals. Those grim statistics helped spur the Maryland legislature to end SWAT recordkeeping.
Montgomery County police have refused to disclose the name of the police officer or officers who killed Lemp. Maryland police are protected by the so-called “Law Enforcement Officers Bill of Rights” that prohibits questioning a police officer for 10 days after any incident in which he used deadly force. A 2019 George Washington Law Review nationwide survey revealed that 98% of police chiefs believed that delaying interrogations of police after a shooting can impede investigations but police unions’ clout prevails on this issue. One police chief commented that “showing evidence in advance allows [police] to tailor their lies to fit the evidence,” while another police chief observed that that process simply gives police suspects “time to fabricate a better lie.”
Another barrier against finding the truth out about is the Potomac SWAT raid is that Maryland treats police falsifying evidence as the equivalent of jaywalking. A Baltimore police officer was found guilty in 2018 of “fabricating evidence in a case in which his own body-camera footage showed him placing drugs in a vacant lot and then acting as if he had just discovered them.” The man who was arrested for those drugs was locked up for six months before the charge was dropped and he was released. The policeman kept his job because, as the Baltimore Sun explained, “Under Maryland law, officers are only removed automatically if convicted of a felony. Fabricating evidence and misconduct in office are both misdemeanors.” An ACLU lawyer groused that he “cannot imagine a more screwed-up, idiotic way of trying to manage a police department or any other public office” than continuing to employ a cop convicted for fabricating evidence.
Was Duncan Lemp correct that “the constitution is dead”? One answer will be found in whether Montgomery County police face any consequence for his death. Unfortunately, the legal playing field in Maryland is profoundly tilted in favor of official killers.
James Bovard is the author of Lost Rights, Attention Deficit Democracy, and Public Policy Hooligan. He is also a USA Today columnist. Follow him on Twitter @JimBovard.


theamericanconservative--2020-03-16--Pandemic Through the Eyes of a Globalist

Nearly 50 years ago , philosopher Thomas Nagel published a now-classic thought experiment on the nature of consciousness .
“ What Is It Like to Be a Bat ?
” is an attempt to do what is ultimately impossible : to see the world through the eyes of another sentient being .
Whether Nagel succeeded is anyone ’ s guess .
( The bat lobby has thus far refused to comment . )
But bats have been in the news lately , although not for philosophical reasons .
The outbreak of the coronavirus pandemic now afflicting us all was initially @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Chinese delicacy ( ? )
known as “ bat soup.
” “ What is it like to be a bat soup eater ?
” was a question that I found myself rhetorically asking , bringing Nagel ’ s essay to mind .
As the disease spread around Asia and then the world , however , the news focus gradually shifted , so that now many are questioning the wisdom of having so unthinkingly globalized everything and made so many industries—including the medical industry—dependent on a place like the People ’ s Republic of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to shoot oneself in the foot ?
” is yet another question that has been bubbling up uncomfortably these past few weeks .
Outsourcing the medical equipment and pharmaceutical supply chain to a hostile communist dictatorship with perhaps the worst public health record on the planet is the equivalent of the Army Corps of Engineers ’ having put the emergency generators for the storm pumps at the bottoms of the levees , where they would be the first to flood during a hurricane .
But globalists , like government engineers , are incapable @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , in their minds , disasters serve perversely to confirm the advisability of their follies .
Which leads normal people to wonder , “ What is going on in the globalist ’ s mind ?
” What , in other words , is it like to be a globalist ?
This is a question worth asking , because the answer will determine very much in the months and years ahead .
Unless we can figure out how the globalist looks at the world , we will continue to be at his mercy , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ crises that are the precipitate of his ideology .
We have got to understand who these people are who have taken over our every doing , our every coming and going .
Otherwise , we will keep getting done in by them .
The first thing that one notices when examining homo globalus—globalman—is his odd inability to fix experience to a specific place .
Homo globalus hates place , one might even go so far as to assert .
But not all places , it should be added—homo globalus hates in particular places @ @ @ @ @ @ @ which are now indispensable to the globalist scheme .
Places , for example , such as China .
Indeed , any mention of the fact that the Wuhan coronavirus originated in Wuhan , or that Wuhan is a city in China , is enough to cause homo globalus to hurl accusations of racism .
It is unacceptable for a virus to have originated in a particular place , the globalist appears to believe .
Demonstrably , the Wuhan coronavirus came from Wuhan .
The only people disputing that are those whose heads will @ @ @ @ @ @ @ confirmed ( namely , the communist dictator of China and his minions ) , as well as those who don ’ t like homo globalus for various other very good reasons .
That includes certain people in Russia and Iran whom homo globalus has gleefully impoverished and humiliated and then mocked for their having dared to complain about it .
But homo globalus takes a different tack from these detractors , insisting not that the Wuhan virus did not come from Wuhan , but that it is racist to say so .
Anyone @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s Republic of China has disastrously failed to meet , well , global standards , or even the most basic level of hygiene , is a hateful racist .
It doesn ’ t matter that the Wuhan virus came from Wuhan , or that a globalized economy was like dry grass before a prairie fire once it got underway .
Globalism must be true , and so homo globalus doubles down , denouncing common sense and plainspokenness as the equivalent of incitement to riot .
This strange scenario reveals two other things about @ @ @ @ @ @ @ difficult to understand .
First , homo globalus does not like language very much , at least not words with meanings .
Words indicate things , whether concrete physical objects or abstractions such as institutions or ideas , but the globalist does not live in a world where any of this makes any sense .
Languages come from places after all .
Strikes one , two , and three against words for globalman .
The very names we use for languages , indeed , indicate where that language was first encountered : English @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Japanese in Japan , and so on .
Or , worse yet , language names are synonymous with the names of a given people , or—gasp !
—tribe , such as Mayan or Yoruba or Hopi .
Homo globalus hates this most of all .
He sends his owl-eyed anthropologists among them to investigate , and then soon after sends in the UN ( the “ un- , ” the negating agency ) to proselytize contraception , carbon reduction , and the Westphalian system .
Actually , homo globalus hates languages with place @ @ @ @ @ @ @ entirely new language , Esperanto , to overcome the stubborn stickiness of language to place .
Esperanto never caught on , of course , because there were already people in the world who spoke their own real languages and so had no need of a fake one .
( Ever tried selling plastic houseplants in a rainforest ? )
But the tendency to erase place from language remains as strong as ever .
One may not , therefore , under any circumstances , say that the Wuhan flu came from Wuhan .
The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ striking to the man in the street is that homo globalus exists , apparently , outside of time , or at least in a hypertemporality in which time flows much faster than it does for the rest of us .
As late as two weeks ago , for example , homo globalus was telling his friends on CNN that the Wuhan virus was from Wuhan .
Then things got weird .
Someone shifted uncomfortably in her chair .
Isn ’ t this…racist ?
Immediately , the Wuhan flu became the Chinese coronavirus .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ , though .
China is a place , too !
In swoops the World Health Organization ( the aptly acronymed WHO ? )
: it ’ s COVID-19 now .
This word , of course , exists in no language anywhere .
Perfect .
And whoever is not now using COVID-19 to describe the flu that came from Wuhan is a racist .
Even better .
This is what the world looks like through globalist eyes .
The world is not a place ; it is a backdrop for an ideology .
People @ @ @ @ @ @ @ thing is that the planet be transformed from a geographical to a geometric entity , a world to a sphere .
There can be no place anywhere , only the ideology of globalism .
The globalist lives in a mental environment utterly unlike the one in which the rest of humanity conducts its daily affairs .
Anyone who disagrees is a racist , backwards , hopelessly out of touch .
Bats and globalists—we had best figure out quick , through thought experiments such as this one , what the world looks like through @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Thomas Nagel pondered the consciousness of flying mammals .
Let us make it our priority to investigate the consciousness of globalman .
Jason Morgan is associate professor at Reitaku University in Kashiwa , Japan .

Nearly 50 years ago, philosopher Thomas Nagel published a now-classic thought experiment on the nature of consciousness. “What Is It Like to Be a Bat?” is an attempt to do what is ultimately impossible: to see the world through the eyes of another sentient being.
Whether Nagel succeeded is anyone’s guess. (The bat lobby has thus far refused to comment.) But bats have been in the news lately, although not for philosophical reasons. The outbreak of the coronavirus pandemic now afflicting us all was initially linked in many news outlets to the Chinese delicacy (?) known as “bat soup.” “What is it like to be a bat soup eater?” was a question that I found myself rhetorically asking, bringing Nagel’s essay to mind.
As the disease spread around Asia and then the world, however, the news focus gradually shifted, so that now many are questioning the wisdom of having so unthinkingly globalized everything and made so many industries—including the medical industry—dependent on a place like the People’s Republic of China. “What is it like to shoot oneself in the foot?” is yet another question that has been bubbling up uncomfortably these past few weeks.
Outsourcing the medical equipment and pharmaceutical supply chain to a hostile communist dictatorship with perhaps the worst public health record on the planet is the equivalent of the Army Corps of Engineers’ having put the emergency generators for the storm pumps at the bottoms of the levees, where they would be the first to flood during a hurricane. But globalists, like government engineers, are incapable of learning from mistakes. In fact, in their minds, disasters serve perversely to confirm the advisability of their follies. Which leads normal people to wonder, “What is going on in the globalist’s mind?”
What, in other words, is it like to be a globalist? This is a question worth asking, because the answer will determine very much in the months and years ahead. Unless we can figure out how the globalist looks at the world, we will continue to be at his mercy, and will continue to face pandemics and crises that are the precipitate of his ideology. We have got to understand who these people are who have taken over our every doing, our every coming and going. Otherwise, we will keep getting done in by them.
The first thing that one notices when examining homo globalus—globalman—is his odd inability to fix experience to a specific place. Homo globalus hates place, one might even go so far as to assert. But not all places, it should be added—homo globalus hates in particular places that have been laggards in globalizing but which are now indispensable to the globalist scheme. Places, for example, such as China.
Indeed, any mention of the fact that the Wuhan coronavirus originated in Wuhan, or that Wuhan is a city in China, is enough to cause homo globalus to hurl accusations of racism. It is unacceptable for a virus to have originated in a particular place, the globalist appears to believe.
Demonstrably, the Wuhan coronavirus came from Wuhan. The only people disputing that are those whose heads will roll when this plain scientific fact is confirmed (namely, the communist dictator of China and his minions), as well as those who don’t like homo globalus for various other very good reasons. That includes certain people in Russia and Iran whom homo globalus has gleefully impoverished and humiliated and then mocked for their having dared to complain about it.
But homo globalus takes a different tack from these detractors, insisting not that the Wuhan virus did not come from Wuhan, but that it is racist to say so. Anyone who points out that the People’s Republic of China has disastrously failed to meet, well, global standards, or even the most basic level of hygiene, is a hateful racist. It doesn’t matter that the Wuhan virus came from Wuhan, or that a globalized economy was like dry grass before a prairie fire once it got underway. Globalism must be true, and so homo globalus doubles down, denouncing common sense and plainspokenness as the equivalent of incitement to riot.
This strange scenario reveals two other things about homo globalus that the average person finds difficult to understand. First, homo globalus does not like language very much, at least not words with meanings. Words indicate things, whether concrete physical objects or abstractions such as institutions or ideas, but the globalist does not live in a world where any of this makes any sense.
Languages come from places after all. Strikes one, two, and three against words for globalman. The very names we use for languages, indeed, indicate where that language was first encountered: English in England, French in France, Japanese in Japan, and so on. Or, worse yet, language names are synonymous with the names of a given people, or—gasp!—tribe, such as Mayan or Yoruba or Hopi. Homo globalus hates this most of all. He sends his owl-eyed anthropologists among them to investigate, and then soon after sends in the UN (the “un-,” the negating agency) to proselytize contraception, carbon reduction, and the Westphalian system.
Actually, homo globalus hates languages with place affiliations so much that he invented an entirely new language, Esperanto, to overcome the stubborn stickiness of language to place. Esperanto never caught on, of course, because there were already people in the world who spoke their own real languages and so had no need of a fake one. (Ever tried selling plastic houseplants in a rainforest?) But the tendency to erase place from language remains as strong as ever. One may not, therefore, under any circumstances, say that the Wuhan flu came from Wuhan.
(It is still okay to say that the Spanish flu came from Spain. It is also okay to eat Belgian waffles and hamburgers and Vienna sausages, and to play Russian roulette with one’s hedge funds, and to have French doors installed at the homo globalus retreat in Monaco. This is because Spain, Belgium, Hamburg, Vienna, Russia, and France do not have the stigma of late-globalization that a place like, say, Wuhan does. The fact that the globe did not really want to globalize, but instead had to be forced to do so at the barrel of a cannon or the point of a bayonet, riles homo globalus. It’s why he’s so touchy about the natives, so worried about learning what they really think about his exquisite sensitivities.)
The second thing about homo globalus that is striking to the man in the street is that homo globalus exists, apparently, outside of time, or at least in a hypertemporality in which time flows much faster than it does for the rest of us. As late as two weeks ago, for example, homo globalus was telling his friends on CNN that the Wuhan virus was from Wuhan. Then things got weird. Someone shifted uncomfortably in her chair. Isn’t this…racist? Immediately, the Wuhan flu became the Chinese coronavirus. That won’t do, either, though. China is a place, too! In swoops the World Health Organization (the aptly acronymed WHO?): it’s COVID-19 now.
This word, of course, exists in no language anywhere. Perfect. And whoever is not now using COVID-19 to describe the flu that came from Wuhan is a racist. Even better.
This is what the world looks like through globalist eyes. The world is not a place; it is a backdrop for an ideology. People may be dying, but the main thing is that the planet be transformed from a geographical to a geometric entity, a world to a sphere. There can be no place anywhere, only the ideology of globalism. The globalist lives in a mental environment utterly unlike the one in which the rest of humanity conducts its daily affairs. Anyone who disagrees is a racist, backwards, hopelessly out of touch.
Bats and globalists—we had best figure out quick, through thought experiments such as this one, what the world looks like through at least the eyes of the latter. Thomas Nagel pondered the consciousness of flying mammals. Let us make it our priority to investigate the consciousness of globalman.
Jason Morgan is associate professor at Reitaku University in Kashiwa, Japan.


theamericanconservative--2020-03-18--The Coronavirus, Ants, and Our Hard Right-Wing Reality

As the death toll climbs , we 're reminded again why walls matter and why the grasshopper , in the end , died .
Aesop ’ s fable of the ants and the grasshopper is a familiar tale .
All summer , the ants work away , piling up grain , while the grasshopper lazes about , happily playing his fiddle .
And then , when winter comes , the grasshopper , having stored no food , is left to starve .
As with many fables , the story of the ants and the grasshopper is a bit cruel—the grasshopper @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s an illiberal starkness to the tale .
As Ralph Waldo Emerson said of conservative thinking in 1841 , “ There is always a certain meanness in the argument of conservatism , joined with a certain superiority in its fact.
” Most likely , of course , our fate will turn out better than the grasshopper ’ s .
We won ’ t die ; we ’ ll just go into economic hibernation for a few months .
Still , in the wake of the coronavirus , it ’ s obvious : we @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , despite an annual GDP of more than $ 21 trillion ( that was the old projection anyway ) and a society-wide wealth of $ 98 trillion ( also a pre-coronavirus number ) , we couldn ’ t be bothered to build up the public health infrastructure that we needed .
We have only a little more than 900,000 hospital beds in the U.S. and just about 95,000 intensive-care beds .
And how many ventilators do we have ?
We can ’ t seem to get a straight answer .
Yet now we @ @ @ @ @ @ @ new hospital patients , many of them gravely ill .
In other words , the unlucky among us seem destined for literal grasshopper status—even if they personally might have agreed more with the ants .
Speaking of grasshopper moves , the Trump administration routinely proposed cuts to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention , as well as to virtually all other federal medical and health agencies .
Happily , Congress said “ no.
” Even more happily , Dr. Anthony Fauci , director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases @ @ @ @ @ @ @ doesn ’ t hold a grudge .
Today , at age 79 , he ’ s willing to deal with the people who thought his life ’ s work , fighting contagion , was over-funded .
Of course , the most grasshopper move of all was the 2018 decision made by former Trump national security adviser John Bolton to abolish the pandemic unit within the National Security Council .
Just think : if Bolton had gotten everything he wanted during his time at the White House , today we might have not only @ @ @ @ @ @ @ war with Iran .
If we had thought more like ants , we would have had a lot more hospital beds .
Okay , it ’ s true that ants , even at their social best , don ’ t actually have hospital beds , yet plenty of human cultures have lived by the realization that winter is always coming .
The Mormons ( whose symbol is the bee , a creature with the same hive-mindedness as the ant ) , the survivalists , and the preppers , to name three groups , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of course , the Mormons have by far the best record of communal , as opposed to individual , concern .
We can also add to this roster of storers the military .
Anyone who ’ s ever been to a military base knows that warriors are typically knee-deep in wares .
The commonality across all these subcultures , of course , is that they tend to have an instinct to hoard , a foreboding about the future—or both .
( Anecdotal observation suggests that many within these groups have read , and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s 1978 novel of the post-apocalypse , The Stand . )
Yet whatever the source of their inspiration , these groups have a plan for surviving .
In a way that ’ s akin to nano-brained ants and their instincts , these big-brained humans have been led by their instincts to delay instant gratification in favor of future gratification—or survival .
Still , society-wide , we shouldn ’ t all have to be ants .
A rich country such as ours ought to have a government that thinks ahead about essentials , with @ @ @ @ @ @ @ making sure that these essentials are always available .
We never need socialism , but we surely do need resilient capitalism .
And yes , that resilience includes such social services as health care .
For the sake of our survival , we ’ re about to have Coronavirus Care For All , and soon enough , it will seem obvious , even to Republicans , that we need a Bismarckian version of Medicare For All .
Oh , and it ’ s worth bringing up another grasshopper move : whose bright idea @ @ @ @ @ @ @ supply chains be routed back to China ?
The authorities—including the world-is-flat pundits who pose as our “ thought leaders ” —were surely fiddling when that outsourcing happened .
Senators Josh Hawley and Marco Rubio have been warning about our over-reliance on China for years , yet now the thought has spread to the mainstream—for instance , this headline in oh-so-trendy Buzzfeed : “ Moving Our Pharmaceutical Factories Overseas Was A Huge Mistake.
” Fact check : true .
If we were even as smart as ants , we would have had a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ medical equipment , close at hand .
We ’ d have stockpiles , and we ’ d have domestic manufacturing , all within our boundaries .
And speaking of boundaries , we might note yet another ant virtue : ants build themselves a defensive structure , an anthill .
It might not be much to look at , but by insect standards , it ’ s strong .
What do we have in the way of homeland defense ?
Nothing much .
We have a military that ’ s great at sending commandoes @ @ @ @ @ @ @ but we have little border security and , in some places , no border control whatsoever .
Moreover , we have airports , such as O ’ Hare and Dallas-Fort Worth , where just in the last few days , people have landed only to find out that they have to queue for many hours while the authorities figure out what do with them .
Note to Uncle Sam : if you have no plan for entrants and migrants , don ’ t let them land at all .
Surely the worst outcome @ @ @ @ @ @ @ stand around , sweating and perhaps sneezing on each other—that ’ s a formula for another outbreak .
More broadly , we can note that every civilization in the world started with a fence , or a wall , around its initial settlement .
And as the settlement grew—if it grew—people could choose to live and work outside the perimeter , but only when it was safe to do so .
Yet in times of crisis , the wall around the city was vital , and not just against soldiers and besiegers ; @ @ @ @ @ @ @ plague carriers and thus plagues .
Here again we are reminded of what Emerson said : conservatives have a certain superiority of fact .
And if we can be permitted some whimsy , we can illustrate the way various contemporary ideologies would approach ye olde epidemic threat .
Medieval conservatives : “ Plague !
Lock the gates of the city !
Keep plague carriers out !
Prepare boiling oil atop the walls !
” Medieval progressives : “ Keep the gates open !
Foreign plague carriers have just as much a right to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of us !
Outlaw boiling oil and prosecute boiling oil company executives !
” Medieval libertarians : “ Keep the gates open !
But allow private neighborhood associations to construct barriers and pour privately-owned boiling oil on anybody trying to get in without belonging to the homeowners association .
And if that doesn ’ t work , sue the plague carriers for damages !
” Thus we can see why there have been so few progressive , or libertarian , societies in human history .
In the end , as Emerson would say @ @ @ @ @ @ @ right-wing reality—or they won ’ t be around to do the grappling .
Of course , over the centuries , as territories have expanded , leaders and peoples have felt safe enough to open up their cities , having extended their defense lines to some distant border .
Nevertheless , that border was guarded carefully—if the country knew what was good for it .
Yet the last couple centuries of prosperity have brought about new thinking and new ideologies , notably , liberalism , libertarianism , and an odd hybrid fusion , progressivism @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ways of living , loving , working—and supply-chaining .
It has all seemed so easy , as well as fun , to finally escape from the grim and joyless world of ants and their work-work-work .
Of course , that ’ s what grasshoppers always think .

Aesop’s fable of the ants and the grasshopper is a familiar tale. All summer, the ants work away, piling up grain, while the grasshopper lazes about, happily playing his fiddle. And then, when winter comes, the grasshopper, having stored no food, is left to starve.
As with many fables, the story of the ants and the grasshopper is a bit cruel—the grasshopper dies. So yes, there’s an illiberal starkness to the tale. As Ralph Waldo Emerson said of conservative thinking in 1841, “There is always a certain meanness in the argument of conservatism, joined with a certain superiority in its fact.”
Most likely, of course, our fate will turn out better than the grasshopper’s. We won’t die; we’ll just go into economic hibernation for a few months.
Still, in the wake of the coronavirus, it’s obvious: we’re the grasshopper.
That is, despite an annual GDP of more than $21 trillion (that was the old projection anyway) and a society-wide wealth of $98 trillion (also a pre-coronavirus number), we couldn’t be bothered to build up the public health infrastructure that we needed. We have only a little more than 900,000 hospital beds in the U.S. and just about 95,000 intensive-care beds. And how many ventilators do we have? We can’t seem to get a straight answer.
Yet now we’re looking at potentially millions of new hospital patients, many of them gravely ill. In other words, the unlucky among us seem destined for literal grasshopper status—even if they personally might have agreed more with the ants.
Speaking of grasshopper moves, the Trump administration routinely proposed cuts to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, as well as to virtually all other federal medical and health agencies. Happily, Congress said “no.”
Even more happily, Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases at the National Institutes of Health, doesn’t hold a grudge. Today, at age 79, he’s willing to deal with the people who thought his life’s work, fighting contagion, was over-funded.
Of course, the most grasshopper move of all was the 2018 decision made by former Trump national security adviser John Bolton to abolish the pandemic unit within the National Security Council. Just think: if Bolton had gotten everything he wanted during his time at the White House, today we might have not only the coronavirus, but also a full-blown war with Iran.
If we had thought more like ants, we would have had a lot more hospital beds. Okay, it’s true that ants, even at their social best, don’t actually have hospital beds, yet plenty of human cultures have lived by the realization that winter is always coming. The Mormons (whose symbol is the bee, a creature with the same hive-mindedness as the ant), the survivalists, and the preppers, to name three groups, are all stockpilers. Of these, of course, the Mormons have by far the best record of communal, as opposed to individual, concern.
We can also add to this roster of storers the military. Anyone who’s ever been to a military base knows that warriors are typically knee-deep in wares.
The commonality across all these subcultures, of course, is that they tend to have an instinct to hoard, a foreboding about the future—or both. (Anecdotal observation suggests that many within these groups have read, and taken to heart, Stephen King’s 1978 novel of the post-apocalypse, The Stand.)
Yet whatever the source of their inspiration, these groups have a plan for surviving. In a way that’s akin to nano-brained ants and their instincts, these big-brained humans have been led by their instincts to delay instant gratification in favor of future gratification—or survival.
Still, society-wide, we shouldn’t all have to be ants. A rich country such as ours ought to have a government that thinks ahead about essentials, with an eye, at least, toward making sure that these essentials are always available. We never need socialism, but we surely do need resilient capitalism.
And yes, that resilience includes such social services as health care. For the sake of our survival, we’re about to have Coronavirus Care For All, and soon enough, it will seem obvious, even to Republicans, that we need a Bismarckian version of Medicare For All.
Oh, and it’s worth bringing up another grasshopper move: whose bright idea was it to let all our health supply chains be routed back to China? The authorities—including the world-is-flat pundits who pose as our “thought leaders”—were surely fiddling when that outsourcing happened.
Senators Josh Hawley and Marco Rubio have been warning about our over-reliance on China for years, yet now the thought has spread to the mainstream—for instance, this headline in oh-so-trendy Buzzfeed: “Moving Our Pharmaceutical Factories Overseas Was A Huge Mistake.” Fact check: true.
If we were even as smart as ants, we would have had a lot more medicine, as well as medical equipment, close at hand. We’d have stockpiles, and we’d have domestic manufacturing, all within our boundaries.
And speaking of boundaries, we might note yet another ant virtue: ants build themselves a defensive structure, an anthill. It might not be much to look at, but by insect standards, it’s strong.
What do we have in the way of homeland defense? Nothing much. We have a military that’s great at sending commandoes and cruise missiles across the world, but we have little border security and, in some places, no border control whatsoever.
Moreover, we have airports, such as O’Hare and Dallas-Fort Worth, where just in the last few days, people have landed only to find out that they have to queue for many hours while the authorities figure out what do with them. Note to Uncle Sam: if you have no plan for entrants and migrants, don’t let them land at all. Surely the worst outcome is for folks to land, then stand around, sweating and perhaps sneezing on each other—that’s a formula for another outbreak.
More broadly, we can note that every civilization in the world started with a fence, or a wall, around its initial settlement. And as the settlement grew—if it grew—people could choose to live and work outside the perimeter, but only when it was safe to do so.
Yet in times of crisis, the wall around the city was vital, and not just against soldiers and besiegers; it was also a good defense against plague carriers and thus plagues. Here again we are reminded of what Emerson said: conservatives have a certain superiority of fact.
And if we can be permitted some whimsy, we can illustrate the way various contemporary ideologies would approach ye olde epidemic threat.
Medieval conservatives: “Plague! Lock the gates of the city! Keep plague carriers out! Prepare boiling oil atop the walls!”
Medieval progressives: “Keep the gates open! Foreign plague carriers have just as much a right to be in our city as the rest of us! Outlaw boiling oil and prosecute boiling oil company executives!”
Medieval libertarians: “Keep the gates open! But allow private neighborhood associations to construct barriers and pour privately-owned boiling oil on anybody trying to get in without belonging to the homeowners association. And if that doesn’t work, sue the plague carriers for damages!”
Thus we can see why there have been so few progressive, or libertarian, societies in human history. In the end, as Emerson would say, people have to grapple with stern right-wing reality—or they won’t be around to do the grappling.
Of course, over the centuries, as territories have expanded, leaders and peoples have felt safe enough to open up their cities, having extended their defense lines to some distant border. Nevertheless, that border was guarded carefully—if the country knew what was good for it.
Yet the last couple centuries of prosperity have brought about new thinking and new ideologies, notably, liberalism, libertarianism, and an odd hybrid fusion, progressivism. And with these have come new ways of living, loving, working—and supply-chaining.
It has all seemed so easy, as well as fun, to finally escape from the grim and joyless world of ants and their work-work-work.
Of course, that’s what grasshoppers always think.


theamericanconservative--2020-03-18--The Mystery Deepens Over the Pre-Dawn Police Killing of Duncan Lemp

Cops are giving curiously muddled messages as to why this 21-year-old Marylander was shot while he was sleeping .
Five days after shooting 21-year-old Duncan Lemp in a predawn raid , the Montgomery County , Maryland , Police Department announced Tuesday that the killing was immaculate .
Under pressure by media criticism , the police department issued a detailed statement this afternoon purportedly exonerating itself .
But that statement—the third revision of their official account of the fatal raid—is contradicted by multiple eyewitnesses .
Police now say that the raid was spurred by “ an anonymous tip at the beginning @ @ @ @ @ @ @ was in possession of firearms.
” A response from the Lemp family , delivered by their lawyer , Rene Sandler , noted , “ Using a three-month old ‘ anonymous ’ tip , the police sought and obtained a no-knock search warrant on March 11 , 2020 at 2:38 p.m. ” The police department states that the warrant “ was served in the early morning hours , consistent with Montgomery County Department of Police practice.
” So an anonymous tip is all it takes for a SWAT team to launch violent predawn assaults @ @ @ @ @ @ @ statement declared , “ The officers entering the residence announced themselves as police and that they were serving a search warrant.
” Why did they obtain a no-knock warrant if they intended to enter the residence and announce themselves ?
According to the statement from the family , the raid began when “ SWAT officers initiated gunfire and flash bangs through Duncan Lemp ’ s bedroom window in the front of the house.
” According to the police , “ Upon making contact with Lemp , officers identified themselves as the police and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ hands.
” The press release reads almost as if Lemp died from an overwhelming sense of guilt , rather than being shot perhaps multiple times by police .
It also doesn ’ t specify whether they ’ d shot or otherwise wounded Lemp before “ making contact ” and issuing commands .
According to Lemp ’ s pregnant girlfriend , who was in bed with him at the time of the police attack , “ police never made verbal commands upon either her or Duncan until after Duncan was shot and lay bleeding @ @ @ @ @ @ @ declares : “ Upon entrance by officers into Lemp ’ s bedroom , Lemp was found to be in possession of a rifle and was located directly in front of the interior bedroom entrance door.
” Was he “ found to be in possession ” as he lay on the floor bleeding ?
And was it Lemp or the rifle that was directly in “ front of the interior bedroom entrance door ” ?
The police claim to be vindicated because they found five firearms in the house and because they asserted today @ @ @ @ @ @ @ as a juvenile ” that “ prohibited [ him ] from legally possessing or purchasing firearms in the State of Maryland until the age of 30.
” Do the police have a right to kill anyone who possesses a firearm in violation of any statute on the books ?
If so , that ’ s bad news for the tens of thousands of Maryland gun owners who are federal felons because they use marijuana or other illicit drugs .
The police department has offered a sham of transparency .
They refused to answer @ @ @ @ @ @ @ I sent another set of questions to them this morning prior to the latest revision of their story , among them : • None Many people online have suggested that Lemp was targeted for a raid because he was helping to build a secure computer site for people who shared his [ pro-gun ] political beliefs .
Is that allegation correct ?
Did concerns about Lemp ’ s political beliefs or associations factor into the SWAT team ’ s decision to launch a violent raid at 4:30 a.m. ?
• Did the SWAT @ @ @ @ @ @ @ County officials do any assessment of the likelihood that someone would be injured or killed by a nighttime SWAT raid that began with shooting or flash-bangs ?
• Did Montgomery County police or other officials make any effort or even consider making an effort to serve the search warrant in a way that would have permitted the peaceful , voluntary cooperation of Lemp family members ?
I sent those questions to a Montgomery County police department official , who notified me that all questions were being forwarded to the Montgomery County Attorney ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and its spokesman , Ramon Korionoff , who responded : “ I can not help you on this matter as it is the Howard County State ’ s Attorney ’ s Office who is handling the investigation.
” ( Howard County and Montgomery County have an agreement to conduct reciprocal investigations of police shootings ) .
Howard County Attorney ’ s Office spokeswoman Yolanda Vazquez responded that the case was “ still under investigation ” and thus they would disclose nothing .
And folks wonder why I am cynical .
I also emailed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the names of the police officer or officers who shot Lemp .
As David Simon , the writer who masterminded the television series Homicide and The Wire , observed , “ Without a name [ of a policeman involved in a shooting ] , there ’ s no way for anyone to evaluate an officer ’ s performance independently , to gauge his or her effectiveness and competence , to know whether he or she has shot one person or 10.
” I also asked : “ Have those officers made a statement @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s so-called “ Law Enforcement Officers Bill of Rights ” prohibits questioning a police officer for 10 days after any incident in which he used deadly force .
That law is practically designed to sabotage honest investigations into killings by police .
As the Washington Post noted in a prize-winning report on police abuses in neighboring Prince George ’ s County , “ a lawyer or a police union official is always summoned to the scene of a shooting to make sure no one speaks to the officer who pulled the trigger.
” @ @ @ @ @ @ @ either .
The family ’ s statement notes : “ The actual search warrant and sworn statements therein were sealed by the judge upon request of the police at the time the warrant was filed for 30 days.
” So the public will not learn until April 11 at the earliest why Montgomery County police chose to use a violent predawn raid on someone who , according to court records , had engaged in no criminal activity since he was a juvenile .
The Montgomery County Police Department doesn ’ t have a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ it kills county residents .
The SWAT team wore body cams and police have thus far refused to release the footage .
They deserve no benefit of the doubt for this violent killing .
James Bovard is the author of Lost Rights , Attention Deficit Democracy , and Public Policy Hooligan .
He is also a USA Today columnist .
Follow him on Twitter @ JimBovard .

Five days after shooting 21-year-old Duncan Lemp in a predawn raid, the Montgomery County, Maryland, Police Department announced Tuesday that the killing was immaculate.
Under pressure by media criticism, the police department issued a detailed statement this afternoon purportedly exonerating itself. But that statement—the third revision of their official account of the fatal raid—is contradicted by multiple eyewitnesses.
Police now say that the raid was spurred by “an anonymous tip at the beginning of the year, indicating that Lemp was in possession of firearms.” A response from the Lemp family, delivered by their lawyer, Rene Sandler, noted, “Using a three-month old ‘anonymous’ tip, the police sought and obtained a no-knock search warrant on March 11, 2020 at 2:38 p.m.”
The police department states that the warrant “was served in the early morning hours, consistent with Montgomery County Department of Police practice.” So an anonymous tip is all it takes for a SWAT team to launch violent predawn assaults on Montgomery County homes? The press statement declared, “The officers entering the residence announced themselves as police and that they were serving a search warrant.” Why did they obtain a no-knock warrant if they intended to enter the residence and announce themselves?
According to the statement from the family, the raid began when “SWAT officers initiated gunfire and flash bangs through Duncan Lemp’s bedroom window in the front of the house.” According to the police, “Upon making contact with Lemp, officers identified themselves as the police and gave him multiple orders to show his hands.” The press release reads almost as if Lemp died from an overwhelming sense of guilt, rather than being shot perhaps multiple times by police. It also doesn’t specify whether they’d shot or otherwise wounded Lemp before “making contact” and issuing commands. According to Lemp’s pregnant girlfriend, who was in bed with him at the time of the police attack, “police never made verbal commands upon either her or Duncan until after Duncan was shot and lay bleeding on the floor.”
The press release declares: “Upon entrance by officers into Lemp’s bedroom, Lemp was found to be in possession of a rifle and was located directly in front of the interior bedroom entrance door.” Was he “found to be in possession” as he lay on the floor bleeding? And was it Lemp or the rifle that was directly in “front of the interior bedroom entrance door”?
The police claim to be vindicated because they found five firearms in the house and because they asserted today that Lemp had a “criminal history as a juvenile” that “prohibited [him] from legally possessing or purchasing firearms in the State of Maryland until the age of 30.” Do the police have a right to kill anyone who possesses a firearm in violation of any statute on the books? If so, that’s bad news for the tens of thousands of Maryland gun owners who are federal felons because they use marijuana or other illicit drugs.
The police department has offered a sham of transparency. They refused to answer any of my questions last Friday. I sent another set of questions to them this morning prior to the latest revision of their story, among them:
Many people online have suggested that Lemp was targeted for a raid because he was helping to build a secure computer site for people who shared his [pro-gun] political beliefs. Is that allegation correct? Did concerns about Lemp’s political beliefs or associations factor into the SWAT team’s decision to launch a violent raid at 4:30 a.m.?
Did the SWAT team or other police department or Montgomery County officials do any assessment of the likelihood that someone would be injured or killed by a nighttime SWAT raid that began with shooting or flash-bangs?
Did Montgomery County police or other officials make any effort or even consider making an effort to serve the search warrant in a way that would have permitted the peaceful, voluntary cooperation of Lemp family members?
I sent those questions to a Montgomery County police department official, who notified me that all questions were being forwarded to the Montgomery County Attorney’s Office. I contacted that office and its spokesman, Ramon Korionoff, who responded: “I cannot help you on this matter as it is the Howard County State’s Attorney’s Office who is handling the investigation.”
(Howard County and Montgomery County have an agreement to conduct reciprocal investigations of police shootings).
Howard County Attorney’s Office spokeswoman Yolanda Vazquez responded that the case was “still under investigation” and thus they would disclose nothing. And folks wonder why I am cynical.
I also emailed the Montgomery County Police Department asking for the names of the police officer or officers who shot Lemp. As David Simon, the writer who masterminded the television series Homicide and The Wire, observed, “Without a name [of a policeman involved in a shooting], there’s no way for anyone to evaluate an officer’s performance independently, to gauge his or her effectiveness and competence, to know whether he or she has shot one person or 10.”
I also asked: “Have those officers made a statement to investigators yet?” Maryland’s so-called “Law Enforcement Officers Bill of Rights” prohibits questioning a police officer for 10 days after any incident in which he used deadly force. That law is practically designed to sabotage honest investigations into killings by police. As the Washington Post noted in a prize-winning report on police abuses in neighboring Prince George’s County, “a lawyer or a police union official is always summoned to the scene of a shooting to make sure no one speaks to the officer who pulled the trigger.” I received no response to that email either.
The family’s statement notes: “The actual search warrant and sworn statements therein were sealed by the judge upon request of the police at the time the warrant was filed for 30 days.” So the public will not learn until April 11 at the earliest why Montgomery County police chose to use a violent predawn raid on someone who, according to court records, had engaged in no criminal activity since he was a juvenile.
The Montgomery County Police Department doesn’t have a Fifth Amendment right to remain silent after it kills county residents. The SWAT team wore body cams and police have thus far refused to release the footage. They deserve no benefit of the doubt for this violent killing.
James Bovard is the author of Lost Rights, Attention Deficit Democracy, and Public Policy Hooligan. He is also a USA Today columnist. Follow him on Twitter @JimBovard.


theamericanconservative--2020-03-19--America Needs Stronger Political Parties

Democratic White House hopeful Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders speaks during a campaign rally at the Convention Center in Los Angeles , California on March 1 , 2020 .
( Photo by MARK RALSTON/AFP via Getty Images ) Over the past few weeks , the Democratic establishment has launched a coordinated effort to coalesce around Joe Biden , giving him the momentum he badly needed to win Super Tuesdays I , II , and now III .
It ’ s now all but guaranteed that he ’ ll be the nominee .
Unsurprisingly , Bernie Sanders and his supporters have expressed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ imposition on the electoral process .
In the absence of such an intervention , they argue , the collective action problem would have made Sanders , the most polarizing figure among Democrats , the presumptive nominee .
Certain Republicans , too , have gone to war with their party ’ s establishment for similar reasons in recent years .
Supporters of outsider politics hold that their political agendas could be realized were it not for a domineering and corrupt establishment .
But our political landscape , counterintuitively , has actually seen a collapse @ @ @ @ @ @ @ decades .
The institutional strength of a major political party may cause some people to recoil , but the fact is that thwarting the excesses of democracy has proved a necessary function in maintaining the stability and durability of our republic .
If parties functioned well , our divides wouldn ’ t be quite so deep .
Indeed , compromise and cooperation are essential if a party is going to work properly .
Putting out a palatable platform that appeals to the distinct and diverse groups that make up our country requires cohesion @ @ @ @ @ @ @ party elders and officials have historically played a central role in vetting candidates .
During the 1800s and early 1900s , for instance , party officials chose delegates for the conventions .
The delegates , in turn , voted for candidates that reflected the preferences of their party bosses .
During the mid-20th century , primaries were conducted to gauge public opinion , but weren ’ t in any way binding .
Since the 1970s , however , both parties have relinquished their responsibility to choose candidates in favor of the popular vote @ @ @ @ @ @ @ an ostensible good , this democratization of political parties has made agenda setting and coalition building nearly impossible .
Primary voters , especially in caucuses , are generally the most enthusiastic and partisan people within the parties .
That ’ s why candidates tend to race as far right or left as they can , only to return to the center for the general election .
These voters are likely to have different preferences than the party bosses , who have the broader goal of building nationwide coalitions .
Over the last four @ @ @ @ @ @ @ campaigns have supported men who ran fervently against party insiders and the establishment : Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders .
In a pre-1970s political era , the Republican Party would have had the political bandwidth to thwart Trump ’ s campaign .
Today , the Republican establishment has become a tool of Trump ’ s and a platform on which he grows his political brand .
The GOP has conformed entirely to Trump ’ s agenda—an agenda that looked very different from the Republican platform before 2016 .
Understanding this isn ’ t @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Still , it ’ s striking just how thoroughly a major party has been turned upside down within the span of four years .
This Trump and Bernie phenomena have incentivized other politicians to act like outsiders , too .
Becoming associated with “ the establishment ” has become a sort of stand-in for corruption and inauthenticity .
In the 2016 GOP primary , for example , Ted Cruz garnered a significant amount of political capital by underscoring his differences with GOP Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell .
Progressives have also used this @ @ @ @ @ @ @ exacerbated by misguided legislation that has directed spending power away from political parties and into the hands of grassroots groups and Super PACs .
As a result , parties have lost a significant amount of bargaining power to more fringe influences .
That ’ s not to suggest that establishment politics are perfect .
But too much deconsolidation can lead to dysfunctional politics and hyper-partisanship .
By no means did the Democratic establishment rectify all these issues by rallying around Biden .
But it ’ s encouraging to see parties take more of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of their primaries .
For those who want to stabilize the political turmoil that ’ s erupted of late , it ’ s a big step in the right direction .
Ethan Lamb is a Young Voices contributor and a law student at Georgetown University .
Follow him on Twitter @ realethanlamb .

Over the past few weeks, the Democratic establishment has launched a coordinated effort to coalesce around Joe Biden, giving him the momentum he badly needed to win Super Tuesdays I, II, and now III. It’s now all but guaranteed that he’ll be the nominee.
Unsurprisingly, Bernie Sanders and his supporters have expressed outrage at the Democratic establishment’s imposition on the electoral process. In the absence of such an intervention, they argue, the collective action problem would have made Sanders, the most polarizing figure among Democrats, the presumptive nominee. Certain Republicans, too, have gone to war with their party’s establishment for similar reasons in recent years.
Supporters of outsider politics hold that their political agendas could be realized were it not for a domineering and corrupt establishment. But our political landscape, counterintuitively, has actually seen a collapse of party influence over the past few decades. The institutional strength of a major political party may cause some people to recoil, but the fact is that thwarting the excesses of democracy has proved a necessary function in maintaining the stability and durability of our republic.
If parties functioned well, our divides wouldn’t be quite so deep.
Indeed, compromise and cooperation are essential if a party is going to work properly. Putting out a palatable platform that appeals to the distinct and diverse groups that make up our country requires cohesion and unity.
To achieve that, party elders and officials have historically played a central role in vetting candidates. During the 1800s and early 1900s, for instance, party officials chose delegates for the conventions. The delegates, in turn, voted for candidates that reflected the preferences of their party bosses. During the mid-20th century, primaries were conducted to gauge public opinion, but weren’t in any way binding.
Since the 1970s, however, both parties have relinquished their responsibility to choose candidates in favor of the popular vote and transparency. And while transparency is an ostensible good, this democratization of political parties has made agenda setting and coalition building nearly impossible. Primary voters, especially in caucuses, are generally the most enthusiastic and partisan people within the parties. That’s why candidates tend to race as far right or left as they can, only to return to the center for the general election.
These voters are likely to have different preferences than the party bosses, who have the broader goal of building nationwide coalitions.
Over the last four years, the most mobilized and enthusiastic campaigns have supported men who ran fervently against party insiders and the establishment: Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders. In a pre-1970s political era, the Republican Party would have had the political bandwidth to thwart Trump’s campaign. Today, the Republican establishment has become a tool of Trump’s and a platform on which he grows his political brand.
The GOP has conformed entirely to Trump’s agenda—an agenda that looked very different from the Republican platform before 2016. Understanding this isn’t necessarily an indictment of that agenda. Still, it’s striking just how thoroughly a major party has been turned upside down within the span of four years.
As political scientist Joseph Postell put it:
Party unity today appears to be based on agreement rather than loyalty. A party that engenders loyalty is able to overcome its internal differences by appealing to the broader principles that unite it. When today’s parties encounter differences that divide them internally, they fall apart.
This Trump and Bernie phenomena have incentivized other politicians to act like outsiders, too. Becoming associated with “the establishment” has become a sort of stand-in for corruption and inauthenticity. In the 2016 GOP primary, for example, Ted Cruz garnered a significant amount of political capital by underscoring his differences with GOP Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell. Progressives have also used this tactic.
This anti-establishment fervor has been exacerbated by misguided legislation that has directed spending power away from political parties and into the hands of grassroots groups and Super PACs. As a result, parties have lost a significant amount of bargaining power to more fringe influences.
That’s not to suggest that establishment politics are perfect. But too much deconsolidation can lead to dysfunctional politics and hyper-partisanship.
By no means did the Democratic establishment rectify all these issues by rallying around Biden. But it’s encouraging to see parties take more of an active role in affecting the outcomes of their primaries. For those who want to stabilize the political turmoil that’s erupted of late, it’s a big step in the right direction.
Ethan Lamb is a Young Voices contributor and a law student at Georgetown University. Follow him on Twitter @realethanlamb.


theamericanconservative--2020-03-19--We May Never Be the Same Once This Virus is Through With Us

We May Never Be the Same Once This Virus is Through With Us In 1927 , the mighty Mississippi River escaped its banks and rose to its highest levels ever seen before—or ever since .
From Cairo , Illinois , to New Orleans , some 27,000 square miles of productive landscape , encompassing thousands of farms and hundreds of towns , were underwater .
The flood killed somewhere between 250 and a thousand people .
Nearly a million Americans became homeless refugees , subject to the ravages of weather , starvation , and disease .
Though it only affected river @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and left an oozing scar upon the body politic .
Eventually , of course , the waters receded , returning to their natural channel .
But the human loss and financial devastation would be felt for years .
Neither the Mississippi Valley nor the country itself would ever be the same .
The flood ’ s lingering impact was probed with potent acuity in a 1997 book by John M. Barry entitled Rising Tide : The Great Mississippi Flood of 1927 and How it Changed America .
Barry wrote that the flood initially @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
But soon it “ became one of man against man .
For the flood brought with it also a human storm .
Honor and money collided .
White and black collided .
Regional and national power structures collided .
The collisions shook America.
” The story of the Great Mississippi Flood is worth pondering in our own time of coronavirus alarm .
Americans today are anxious to return to the kind of normal times we knew before the virus emerged .
But the Great Mississippi Flood reminds us that , when nature @ @ @ @ @ @ @ terrible ways , it often alters the course of history .
Normal times , as remembered during the crisis , are often gone forever .
The Mississippi Flood , for example , challenged as never before the notion that the federal government had no mandate to serve as a major agency of succor for those left bereft and homeless by havoc .
At the center of the drama was Secretary of Commerce Herbert Hoover , world renowned as the man who had fed Belgium during World War I , then fed millions as @ @ @ @ @ @ @ after the war .
He was the world ’ s most famous and respected engineer—with an eye fixed on the next presidential election .
As the lead figure in the country ’ s flood relief program , Hoover embraced the view that it could all be handled through a complex matrix of volunteer efforts , all overseen and managed by himself .
Major governmental initiatives weren ’ t needed—and contrary to the views of the Founding Fathers anyway .
This was not considered an outlandish point of view .
President Calvin Coolidge , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ t even visit the Southern lands devastated by the flood , nor would he raise a hand in efforts to collect private funds for victims .
Four decades before , President Grover Cleveland , a laissez-faire Democrat , had vetoed a $ 10,000 appropriation for drought victims in Texas on the grounds that the federal government had no “ warrant in the Constitution…to indulge a benevolent and charitable sentiment through the appropriation of public funds.
” But the human devastation in the flood zone was changing public sentiment , and Hoover ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ getting the job done .
Soon the idea that the government did in fact have a responsibility for the welfare of devastated citizens took root .
This paved the way for Franklin Roosevelt ’ s powerful New Deal coalition when , just a few years later , the Great Depression visited upon the country a devastation that was national , not just regional , in scope .
In the meantime , the flood ’ s aftermath set in motion the great migration of Southern blacks to the north , where industrialization was creating @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in his efforts to woo blacks away from the Republican Party and into his potent new coalition .
All that contributed to one of the great political realignments in the country ’ s history .
Though few perceived it at the time , the Great Mississippi Flood pointed the way toward a major national transformation .
As Barry writes , “ Like the blues music , born in the Delta , languid and rolling at the same time , [ the flood ] penetrated to the core of the nation , washed away @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s character .
Then it tested that character and changed it.
” Could the coronavirus stir a similar transformation in our own time ?
Certainly , if the devastation is as serious as some experts are now saying , some big attitudinal changes could be in the works .
Patrick Buchanan wonders whether the virus will be the “ deathblow ” to what he calls the “ New World Order ” —the post-Cold War era of globalization , withering borders , and the “ interdependence of the world ’ s great nations.
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ are in an era of travel bans , tourism curtailments , border enhancements , and concerns that an emerging geopolitical adversary , China , controls the production of so many pharmaceuticals and other products that are crucial to the health of millions of Americans and to America ’ s military capacity .
“ Is not the case now conclusive , ” asks Buchanan , “ that we made a historical mistake when we outsourced our economic independence to rely for vital necessities upon nations that have never had America ’ s best interests @ @ @ @ @ @ @ be conclusive , to Buchanan ’ s mind , but that doesn ’ t mean it will be widely embraced .
The Age of Globalism is a product of American liberalism , and American liberalism continues to exercise a powerful pull on the consciousness of the country .
Witness the success in the Democratic primaries of Vermont socialist Bernie Sanders , who cadged far more votes than anyone of his outlook ever could have collected even in the days of the Great Depression , when socialism was considered a serious alternative .
Yet @ @ @ @ @ @ @ logic in the Buchanan formulation .
The Trump presidency reflects the fact that four years ago many Americans felt the country was moving in a dangerous direction under its elite leadership .
And the border question was probably the single most significant factor in his emergence .
Now nations around the world are forced to give a new emphasis to border protection , and to ensuring that citizens come first in the consideration of their governments .
It ’ s difficult to say just what kind of legacy the coronavirus will leave in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of the Great Mississippi Flood of 1927 suggests we won ’ t be returning to the same old world we inhabited before .
Robert W. Merry , longtime Washington , D.C. , journalist and publishing executive , is the author most recently of President McKinley : Architect of the American Century ( Simon & Schuster ) .

In 1927, the mighty Mississippi River escaped its banks and rose to its highest levels ever seen before—or ever since. From Cairo, Illinois, to New Orleans, some 27,000 square miles of productive landscape, encompassing thousands of farms and hundreds of towns, were underwater. The flood killed somewhere between 250 and a thousand people. Nearly a million Americans became homeless refugees, subject to the ravages of weather, starvation, and disease. Though it only affected river communities, the rising tide was disastrous and left an oozing scar upon the body politic.
Eventually, of course, the waters receded, returning to their natural channel. But the human loss and financial devastation would be felt for years. Neither the Mississippi Valley nor the country itself would ever be the same.
The flood’s lingering impact was probed with potent acuity in a 1997 book by John M. Barry entitled Rising Tide: The Great Mississippi Flood of 1927 and How it Changed America. Barry wrote that the flood initially unleashed a struggle of man against nature. But soon it “became one of man against man. For the flood brought with it also a human storm. Honor and money collided. White and black collided. Regional and national power structures collided. The collisions shook America.”
The story of the Great Mississippi Flood is worth pondering in our own time of coronavirus alarm. Americans today are anxious to return to the kind of normal times we knew before the virus emerged. But the Great Mississippi Flood reminds us that, when nature displays its awesome force in unexpected and terrible ways, it often alters the course of history. Normal times, as remembered during the crisis, are often gone forever.
The Mississippi Flood, for example, challenged as never before the notion that the federal government had no mandate to serve as a major agency of succor for those left bereft and homeless by havoc. At the center of the drama was Secretary of Commerce Herbert Hoover, world renowned as the man who had fed Belgium during World War I, then fed millions as head of a massive European relief program after the war. He was the world’s most famous and respected engineer—with an eye fixed on the next presidential election.
As the lead figure in the country’s flood relief program, Hoover embraced the view that it could all be handled through a complex matrix of volunteer efforts, all overseen and managed by himself. Major governmental initiatives weren’t needed—and contrary to the views of the Founding Fathers anyway. This was not considered an outlandish point of view. President Calvin Coolidge, Hoover’s boss, wouldn’t even visit the Southern lands devastated by the flood, nor would he raise a hand in efforts to collect private funds for victims.
Four decades before, President Grover Cleveland, a laissez-faire Democrat, had vetoed a $10,000 appropriation for drought victims in Texas on the grounds that the federal government had no “warrant in the Constitution…to indulge a benevolent and charitable sentiment through the appropriation of public funds.”
But the human devastation in the flood zone was changing public sentiment, and Hoover’s concentration on private endeavors wasn’t getting the job done. Soon the idea that the government did in fact have a responsibility for the welfare of devastated citizens took root. This paved the way for Franklin Roosevelt’s powerful New Deal coalition when, just a few years later, the Great Depression visited upon the country a devastation that was national, not just regional, in scope.
In the meantime, the flood’s aftermath set in motion the great migration of Southern blacks to the north, where industrialization was creating job opportunities. That further assisted FDR in his efforts to woo blacks away from the Republican Party and into his potent new coalition.
All that contributed to one of the great political realignments in the country’s history. Though few perceived it at the time, the Great Mississippi Flood pointed the way toward a major national transformation. As Barry writes, “Like the blues music, born in the Delta, languid and rolling at the same time, [the flood] penetrated to the core of the nation, washed away the surface, and revealed the nation’s character. Then it tested that character and changed it.”
Could the coronavirus stir a similar transformation in our own time? Certainly, if the devastation is as serious as some experts are now saying, some big attitudinal changes could be in the works. Patrick Buchanan wonders whether the virus will be the “deathblow” to what he calls the “New World Order”—the post-Cold War era of globalization, withering borders, and the “interdependence of the world’s great nations.”
Now, he notes, we are in an era of travel bans, tourism curtailments, border enhancements, and concerns that an emerging geopolitical adversary, China, controls the production of so many pharmaceuticals and other products that are crucial to the health of millions of Americans and to America’s military capacity. “Is not the case now conclusive,” asks Buchanan, “that we made a historical mistake when we outsourced our economic independence to rely for vital necessities upon nations that have never had America’s best interests at heart?”
The case may be conclusive, to Buchanan’s mind, but that doesn’t mean it will be widely embraced. The Age of Globalism is a product of American liberalism, and American liberalism continues to exercise a powerful pull on the consciousness of the country. Witness the success in the Democratic primaries of Vermont socialist Bernie Sanders, who cadged far more votes than anyone of his outlook ever could have collected even in the days of the Great Depression, when socialism was considered a serious alternative.
Yet there’s a certain force of logic in the Buchanan formulation. The Trump presidency reflects the fact that four years ago many Americans felt the country was moving in a dangerous direction under its elite leadership. And the border question was probably the single most significant factor in his emergence. Now nations around the world are forced to give a new emphasis to border protection, and to ensuring that citizens come first in the consideration of their governments.
It’s difficult to say just what kind of legacy the coronavirus will leave in America or globally. But the story of the Great Mississippi Flood of 1927 suggests we won’t be returning to the same old world we inhabited before.
Robert W. Merry, longtime Washington, D.C., journalist and publishing executive, is the author most recently of President McKinley: Architect of the American Century (Simon & Schuster).


theamericanconservative--2020-03-19--Will Trump Defuse the Coming Debt Deflation Bomb?

Traders work on the floor at the opening bell of the Dow Industrial Average at the New York Stock Exchange on March 18 , 2020 in New York .
( Photo by BRYAN R. SMITH/AFP via Getty Images ) The mounting wreckage in the global economy as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic that began in Wuhan , China , is quickly surpassing the damage seen after the 2008 financial crisis .
The good news of sorts is that the banking and payments system is strong and in no immediate danger of the sort of liquidity problems that brought the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a decade ago .
The bad news is that just about every other major business is suffering from reduced sales volumes and activity levels .
Many companies are being forced to lay off people and close operations .
The cumulative impact of deflation on corporate and personal finances and credit profiles could be catastrophic and long-lasting .
The fact that debt levels at many private companies and public agencies are high by historical standards could worsen the crisis of debt deflation that lies ahead .
The scope and speed of the economic change @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for example , industrial output has fallen dramatically and unemployment in the cities is rising—this according to official statistics from the Chinese Communist Party .
But around the world , government actions to reduce the rate of infection are also resulting in rising unemployment and falling production .
New York City , for example , has essentially shut down all public schools and meeting places except for food stores and pharmacies .
The financial and social cost to New York as a result of the loss of revenues from tourism and other activities @ @ @ @ @ @ @ global central banks have cut interest rates and added massive amounts of liquidity to the global markets , prudent actions that are still not having much impact on the anxiety felt by the public .
Many Americans are now facing a two-week period of self-isolation in order to slow the rate of infection , an involuntary sojourn that will negatively impact the finances of just about every public and private organization .
The world economy is , in a very real sense , under siege by COVID-19 .
At the very least , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for years ahead .
Think of it this way : just about every company in the U.S. has effectively received a credit downgrade as a result of the response to COVID-19 .
Markets , banks , and investors do not yet understand how to translate this economic reality into prices for stocks , bonds , and credit .
Even as the Federal Reserve and other central banks act to blunt the impact of the crisis by providing liquidity , the markets remain weak because investors can not describe much less quantify the degree @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the private debt and equity markets .
Governments are moving next to provide relief to those severely impacted by the outbreak , but private employers such as airlines , hotels , restaurants , and other public facilities are still likely to feel a severe financial shock .
Because of the scale of the crisis , there will be no bailouts for the shareholders or creditors of private companies caught in the vise of economic deflation .
As a result , Americans should expect to see a dramatic increase in business closures and bankruptcies @ @ @ @ @ @ @ U.S. banks and investors .
Part of the reason that the financial markets seem , so far , to be indifferent to the massive amount of liquidity injected by the Federal Reserve and other central banks is the huge degree of asset inflation that the Fed , the European Central Bank , and the Bank of Japan have created with their unconventional monetary policies .
These policies include the purchase of securities and open market operations to depress interest rates .
Stock prices in the U.S. , for example , have been inflated @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Market Committee , which now pretends to offer the solution to this very same problem as equity markets collapse .
The irony of the situation would be amusing were the consequences not so terrible .
Since the 2008 financial crisis , the Fed and other central banks have used low or negative interest rates to stave off debt deflation and created vast asset bubbles in stocks and real estate in the process .
Why ?
Because the world has far too much debt .
For years now , the Fed has fretted that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ another way of saying that debt is too high .
But now , thanks to the black swan event of COVID-19 , the global economy faces a period of debt defaults and restructuring that will dash the hopes of central bankers .
Until we begin to see markets address credit , corporate cash flows , and lending disruptions from an economic shock that is still expanding in scope and scale , the markets are likely to remain in turmoil .
As the great economist Irving Fisher wrote in his great essay on debt @ @ @ @ @ @ @ over-indebtedness with which we started was great enough , the liquidation of debts can not keep up with the fall of prices which it causes .
In that case , the liquidation defeats itself.
” The big question is this : does the Trump administration and the Federal Reserve understand the wave of debt deflation that is approaching the global economy ?
Because of the strength of the U.S. financial system and the huge reservoirs of financing capacity that the U.S. government commands , the resources exist to address the immediate economic impact @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , however , to consumer behavior and consumption patterns , may prove more difficult to mitigate .
That ’ s especially true if many providers of travel and leisure services , for example , disappear in the fires of debt deflation .
The amount of private debt around the world that could default in the next years totals into the trillions of dollars , suggesting that the cleanup from COVID-19 could take many years to accomplish .
More than any economic or financial expedients , however , the biggest driver of the mounting @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and the fear that arises from uncertainty .
Governments in the U.S. and around the world need to do a better job of informing the public and helping to set expectations for the weeks and months ahead .
The Trump White House has gotten off to a slow start in crafting a narrative of recovery .
This has changed in recent days , however , as the administration ’ s message has become more refined .
The White House must set expectations about the economic effects of COVID-19 .
That means not just @ @ @ @ @ @ @ prospect of the financial failure of many private employers and public organizations .
Proposed fiscal action by Congress will be helpful in this way .
President Donald Trump needs to learn from the tragedy of Herbert Hoover in the 1930s , who knew there was a problem with the U.S. economy but didn ’ t act effectively to deal with the mounting crisis .
The lack of purposeful action between the election of FDR in November 1932 and when Roosevelt took office in March 1933 allowed the banking crisis of 1933 to explode @ @ @ @ @ @ @ needs to grasp the deflationary problem that faces us all and act to avoid a repeat of the Great Depression .
Fortunately , the response is accelerating and this is indeed a reason for optimism .
Christopher Whalen is an investment banker and chairman of Whalen Global Advisors LLC .
He is the author of three books , including Ford Men : From Inspiration to Enterprise ( 2017 ) and Inflated : How Money and Debt Built the American Dream ( 2010 ) .
He edits The Institutional Risk Analyst , and appears @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , Bloomberg , Fox News , and Business News Network .
Follow him on Twitter @ rcwhalen .

The mounting wreckage in the global economy as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic that began in Wuhan, China, is quickly surpassing the damage seen after the 2008 financial crisis. The good news of sorts is that the banking and payments system is strong and in no immediate danger of the sort of liquidity problems that brought the global economy to its knees more than a decade ago.
The bad news is that just about every other major business is suffering from reduced sales volumes and activity levels. Many companies are being forced to lay off people and close operations. The cumulative impact of deflation on corporate and personal finances and credit profiles could be catastrophic and long-lasting. The fact that debt levels at many private companies and public agencies are high by historical standards could worsen the crisis of debt deflation that lies ahead.
The scope and speed of the economic change have been breathtaking. In China, for example, industrial output has fallen dramatically and unemployment in the cities is rising—this according to official statistics from the Chinese Communist Party. But around the world, government actions to reduce the rate of infection are also resulting in rising unemployment and falling production. New York City, for example, has essentially shut down all public schools and meeting places except for food stores and pharmacies. The financial and social cost to New York as a result of the loss of revenues from tourism and other activities is incalculable.
The Federal Reserve and global central banks have cut interest rates and added massive amounts of liquidity to the global markets, prudent actions that are still not having much impact on the anxiety felt by the public. Many Americans are now facing a two-week period of self-isolation in order to slow the rate of infection, an involuntary sojourn that will negatively impact the finances of just about every public and private organization. The world economy is, in a very real sense, under siege by COVID-19.
At the very least, the global economy faces a difficult period for years ahead. Think of it this way: just about every company in the U.S. has effectively received a credit downgrade as a result of the response to COVID-19. Markets, banks, and investors do not yet understand how to translate this economic reality into prices for stocks, bonds, and credit. Even as the Federal Reserve and other central banks act to blunt the impact of the crisis by providing liquidity, the markets remain weak because investors cannot describe much less quantify the degree of the changes and the risk to the private debt and equity markets.
Governments are moving next to provide relief to those severely impacted by the outbreak, but private employers such as airlines, hotels, restaurants, and other public facilities are still likely to feel a severe financial shock. Because of the scale of the crisis, there will be no bailouts for the shareholders or creditors of private companies caught in the vise of economic deflation. As a result, Americans should expect to see a dramatic increase in business closures and bankruptcies, and eventually in credit losses for U.S. banks and investors.
Part of the reason that the financial markets seem, so far, to be indifferent to the massive amount of liquidity injected by the Federal Reserve and other central banks is the huge degree of asset inflation that the Fed, the European Central Bank, and the Bank of Japan have created with their unconventional monetary policies. These policies include the purchase of securities and open market operations to depress interest rates. Stock prices in the U.S., for example, have been inflated to grotesque valuations by the Federal Open Market Committee, which now pretends to offer the solution to this very same problem as equity markets collapse.
The irony of the situation would be amusing were the consequences not so terrible. Since the 2008 financial crisis, the Fed and other central banks have used low or negative interest rates to stave off debt deflation and created vast asset bubbles in stocks and real estate in the process. Why? Because the world has far too much debt.
For years now, the Fed has fretted that inflation is too low. This is another way of saying that debt is too high. But now, thanks to the black swan event of COVID-19, the global economy faces a period of debt defaults and restructuring that will dash the hopes of central bankers. Until we begin to see markets address credit, corporate cash flows, and lending disruptions from an economic shock that is still expanding in scope and scale, the markets are likely to remain in turmoil.
As the great economist Irving Fisher wrote in his great essay on debt deflation in 1933, “if the over-indebtedness with which we started was great enough, the liquidation of debts cannot keep up with the fall of prices which it causes. In that case, the liquidation defeats itself.” The big question is this: does the Trump administration and the Federal Reserve understand the wave of debt deflation that is approaching the global economy?
Because of the strength of the U.S. financial system and the huge reservoirs of financing capacity that the U.S. government commands, the resources exist to address the immediate economic impact of the crisis. The longer-term changes, however, to consumer behavior and consumption patterns, may prove more difficult to mitigate. That’s especially true if many providers of travel and leisure services, for example, disappear in the fires of debt deflation.
The amount of private debt around the world that could default in the next years totals into the trillions of dollars, suggesting that the cleanup from COVID-19 could take many years to accomplish. More than any economic or financial expedients, however, the biggest driver of the mounting economic catastrophe is a lack of information and the fear that arises from uncertainty. Governments in the U.S. and around the world need to do a better job of informing the public and helping to set expectations for the weeks and months ahead.
The Trump White House has gotten off to a slow start in crafting a narrative of recovery. This has changed in recent days, however, as the administration’s message has become more refined. The White House must set expectations about the economic effects of COVID-19. That means not just unemployment and other short-term dislocations but the prospect of the financial failure of many private employers and public organizations. Proposed fiscal action by Congress will be helpful in this way.
President Donald Trump needs to learn from the tragedy of Herbert Hoover in the 1930s, who knew there was a problem with the U.S. economy but didn’t act effectively to deal with the mounting crisis. The lack of purposeful action between the election of FDR in November 1932 and when Roosevelt took office in March 1933 allowed the banking crisis of 1933 to explode. A century later, the government needs to grasp the deflationary problem that faces us all and act to avoid a repeat of the Great Depression. Fortunately, the response is accelerating and this is indeed a reason for optimism.
Christopher Whalen is an investment banker and chairman of Whalen Global Advisors LLC. He is the author of three books, including Ford Men: From Inspiration to Enterprise (2017) and Inflated: How Money and Debt Built the American Dream (2010). He edits The Institutional Risk Analyst, and appears regularly on such media outlets as CNBC, Bloomberg, Fox News, and Business News Network. Follow him on Twitter @rcwhalen.