fortune--2020-11-30--This new VR simulator helps you prepare for the most awkward office encounters

Hugo is furious.
He’s sitting across from me, arms crossed, face scowling, exuding bad energy. Sitting next to him is Maia. She’s singing the praises of a third colleague, Denise, who is up for a promotion. “She gets glowing reviews from her supervisors. She’s clearly overdue for this promotion. I’ve worked a lot with her and think she’s ready.”
Hugo does not agree. “I have a lot of reservations about Denise,” he says. “In a recent meeting she just shut me down. She’s so…aggressive. And that accent…”
“Okay…Let’s not get personal and instead focus on her work accomplishments!” I hear myself say in a high-pitched tone my children would be familiar with. “Have you seen her run meetings before, and what has your impression been?” I ask, gesturing to the woman and suddenly fumbling both their names. My blood pressure begins to rise. Hugo continues to glower at me.
“Actually, yes, I was in that meeting he’s talking about,” offers Maia. “It was a very technical presentation, and I think all she said was that she preferred to wait to take questions at the end—she wasn’t shutting you down, Hugo.” She, too, crosses her arms and perceptibly rolls her eyes.
Then they both turn to me expectantly, waiting for my reaction.
Luckily this uncomfortable moment didn’t take place in a real office, but in a virtual one. It’s a simulation designed by a startup called Mursion, which makes “immersive virtual reality training for emotional intelligence in the workplace” to help employees and managers “practice” diffusing, redirecting, and de-escalating office conflicts.
After the session, an avatar named “Bennett” (pictured below) talked me through how it went, and what I could work on for next time. We agreed that while I did a decent job “redirecting” the conversation after Hugo’s repeated microaggressions, it would have been even better to try to demonstrate to Hugo some ways in which Denise’s work had already contributed to the success of the team. I instantly wanted some training—and a do-over.
Courtesy of Mursion
That’s exactly the point, says Mursion CEO Mark Atkinson, who chatted with me after my “meeting.” Turns out Bennett, Hugo, and Maia were all played by the same “simulation specialist,” who was responding to everything I said and adjusting the conversation accordingly. “A bot can’t create that kind of stress,” laughs Atkinson. He says a single specialist can play up to seven roles, and scenarios can start slow or be dialed “way up” to produce extremely cold-sweat-inducing interactions if a company desires it.
Classroom roots
The software was originally developed at the University of Central Florida to help teachers in the school of education practice working with special needs children before moving on to real students. But as soon as Atkinson saw a demo, he knew it could play a huge role in the corporate world. “So much of what we’ve experienced is learning that is pushed at you, but we don’t get to show mastery,” he says. Aside from an occasional cringeworthy off-site exercise, most managers are simply thrown into tough conversations and have to tread water.
Mursion, which works with many Fortune 1000 companies including T-Mobile, Coca-Cola, Google, Johnson & Johnson, Blue Cross Blue Shield, and Genentech, is carving out a niche with companies that actually want their employees to get better at communicating. That involves everything from leadership development, customer service, performance reviews, diversity and inclusion training, and, yes, settling office conflicts.
For instance, they are currently working with a large chain to train employees on how to deal with customers who refuse to wear masks. Another client is a large Asian tech company that has a very hierarchical structure and cannot get talent in Silicon Valley. Atkinson says they’re working with their engineers on “communication style” to get them more comfortable talking to diverse U.S. prospects.
Mursion is projecting revenues of $20 million for the fiscal year which ends June 30, a figure Atkinson says is double the previous year. On Monday, the company announced $20 million in new funding from Leeds Illuminate, whose managing partner Susan Cates has spent much of her career investing in companies that help train and develop leaders.
Cates confides that Atkinson actually let her try the simulator early on—and he later used the demo to evaluate potential board members. He picked a module where the “leader” had to deliver hard feedback to a colleague, and most of all was “looking for empathy,” he says. But even though they knew they were being watched, Atkinson recalls, “I saw some people become very aggressive, really taking their colleagues to the woodshed!”
That was eye-opening. And indeed the disconnect between how we think we’re perceived—and how people really see us—may be Mursion’s next growth area. Atkinson says the company is currently working on analytics that give feedback on “how you come across, what we can tell about you from your tone of voice, facial gestures, and how people are reading you.”
I’d definitely try it. And might recommend Hugo do the same.


fortune--2020-12-01--5 new books to read in December

5 new books to read in December

The S & P 500 has been eerily mirroring 2009 for months .
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An exposé on one of the most overlooked but also recession-proof sectors in Big Food; an entertaining but pointed examination of what women do to not be perceived as “rude”; and a memoir filled with race-related anecdotes from the author’s past, weaving in his thoughts on why they were hurtful and how he might handle things differently now.
Here are five new books to consider reading in December.
Here are five new books to consider reading in December. Courtesy of St. Martin’s Press, Candlewick Press, Ecco Press, Simon & Schuster, and Seal Press
Big Kibble: The Hidden Dangers of the Pet Food Industry and How to Do Better by Our Dogs by Shawn Buckley and Dr. Oscar Chavez, with Wendy Paris
Available Dec. 1
When one thinks of the Big Food industry, most people only consider food products for humans. But pet food is one of the biggest processed food industries in the United States, and it’s getting a comprehensive and hard-hitting look in Big Kibble (St. Martin’s Press), written and researched by two professionals involved in the whole food movement for pets. Big Kibble reveals a shocking lack of regulation within the pet food industry, and also how readers can dramatically improve the quality of their pets’ lives through even just a few small changes to their diet.
Mediocre: The Dangerous Legacy of White Male America by Ijeoma Oluo
Available Dec. 1
From the author of the New York Times bestseller So You Want to Talk About Race, award-winning writer Ijeoma Oluo follows up with a subversive history of white male American identity. Through the past 150 years of American history—from the post-Reconstruction South and the mythic stories of cowboys in the West, to the present-day controversy over NFL protests and the backlash against the rise of women in politics—Oluo exposes the devastating consequences of white male supremacy on women, people of color, and white men themselves. Mediocre (Seal Press) investigates the real costs of this phenomenon in order to imagine a new white male identity, one free from racism and sexism.
Barack Before Obama by David Katz
Available Dec. 1
David Katz started as one of the first 10 employees on Barack Obama’s 2004 Senate campaign and spent approximately nine months driving, photographing, and serving President Obama during that time. He eventually would go on to serve the 44th President in policy roles in both the Energy Department and at the White House. As campaign photographer, and later as a personal aide, Katz always had his camera with him, and in 2004, after seeing the photographs he had amassed, famed Vanity Fair and Vogue photographer Annie Leibovitz gave him some advice: “Don’t release these photos of Obama for at least 15 years. They need time to age.” The result is a collection of never-before-seen photographs—curated and edited down from an archive of more than 90,000 snapshots—revealing an intimate look at the West Wing and the first family during the Obama years, with detailed captions revealing anecdotes of everyday activities as simple as sending one of the first daughters off to school to monumental occasions such as a surprise meeting with Nelson Mandela.
Rude: Stop Being Nice and Start Being Bold by Rebecca Reid
Available Dec. 1
If you’re female and deemed not likable, then you’re probably also labeled as “rude”—at the very least. In Rude (Simon & Schuster), journalist Rebecca Reid, also author of the recently released novel The Truth Hurts, blends personal advice with stories of famous women who have been perceived as rude (including Rosa Parks, Meghan Markle, and Taylor Swift) to explore the power of positive rudeness and demonstrate how women can utilize “rudeness” to get what they want—and deserve—in every area of their lives.
The Black Friend: On Being a Better White Person by Frederick Joseph
Available Dec. 1
Writing from the perspective of a friend, Frederick Joseph, an award-winning marketing professional who has appeared on Forbes’s 30 Under 30 list, offers candid reflections on his own experiences with racism and conversations with prominent artists and activists about theirs. In 2020 and beyond, The Black Friend (Candlewick Press) is an essential read for white people who say they are committed anti-racists and are ready to put in the work.


fortune--2020-12-01--China’s ‘Amazon of services’ says it welcomes Beijing’s stricter oversight

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China’s largest service-on-demand company, Meituan, reported 28.8% revenue growth for the third quarter this year compared to the same period in 2019 as China’s consumer spending stages a post-pandemic return and as it faces a new regulatory threat from Beijing.
“Overall, with COVID-19 well controlled and the economy firmly back on track in China, growth across all of our main businesses accelerated in the quarter on a sequential basis,” Meituan founder and CEO Wang Xing said in a statement Monday. The company’s revenue totaled $5.4 billion in Q3, ahead of analysts’ expectations, according to Refinitiv. It earned roughly $1 billion in profit.
Meituan began life as a Groupon-like firm in 2010, before expanding into food delivery, shared bike rentals, tickets sales, and other services. The company, sometimes dubbed China’s “Amazon of services” for its huge presence and wide range of offerings, still earns the majority of its revenue from food delivery—totaling $3.15 billion in the third quarter.
Having recovered from a virus-induced downturn, the $220 billion Hong Kong–listed services company is now contending with the potentially larger threat of government regulation, which Beijing proposed last month to subdue China’s runaway tech giants.
China’s financial regulator, the State Administration for Market Regulation, issued draft proposals for new rules to regulate the country’s tech giants on Nov. 10. Media reports speculate that Alibaba founder Jack Ma was the catalyst. The bombastic entrepreneur made the mistake of openly criticizing China’s regulators, accusing them of operating with a “pawnshop mentality” on stage at an industry conference.
Ma was soon summoned to a closed-door meeting with the SAMR in early November, days before Alibaba’s financial affiliate, Ant Group, was due to launch the world’s largest IPO, tipped to raise $35 billion. Regulators pulled the plug on the mobile payments provider’s IPO the day before its launch.
Beijing’s new rules on online lending curtailed Ant’s IPO but, a week later, the government released wider-ranging antitrust regulations, tempering the tech sector. Collectively, the threat of new regulations cost China’s tech players over $250 billion in market value in just two days.
Between Nov. 9—the day before Beijing revealed the new draft regulations—and Nov. 11, Meituan’s share price plummeted 20%, from $43 to $35. As of Tuesday, shares were trading at $37.
Since then, China’s leading tech executives have crept forward to laud the effectiveness of regulation. Tencent president Martin Lau told investors in a call last month that stricter regulation does “reflect the new realities” as “technology companies become bigger and more important to the economy.”
Last week Alibaba CEO Daniel Zhang, Jack Ma’s successor, said the regulations were “timely and necessary,” as he spoke at China’s World Internet Conference.
Meituan’s Wang Xing is the latest to welcome more government oversight.
“We think the new antitrust consultation paper is supportive of the healthy development of the Internet….and helps promote fair competition within the industry,” Wang said on a call with analysts Monday. “As Internet platforms become bigger and more important to the economy, regulatory frameworks will also evolve.”


fortune--2020-12-01--Denied unemployment benefits? Here are your options

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As cases of COVID-19 rise across the country, some states are reissuing lockdown measures. And as these lockdown measures spike, layoffs are too: Last week 778,000 Americans filed new unemployment claims, up 9% from two weeks ago.
But not all of these unemployed Americans will see their benefit claims approved. If your claim does get denied, here’s what to do next.
What should you do if your unemployment claim gets denied?
Before picking a remedy for a denied jobless claim, applicants need to find out why they were denied. They should get a “notice of determination,” which spells out the specifics. An employer could have blocked it based on information he or she provided to your state: Perhaps the former employer said you failed a drug test, or you quit your job without good cause. On the flip side, you may have just lacked the proper information in your application.
Knowing why your claim was blocked is the first step to fighting a denied claim.
Should you reapply or appeal following a denied unemployment claim?
If you’re denied because you’re missing information, then it might make more sense to just reapply or update the initial application. The plus side to reapplying is that it’s usually faster than the appeals process.
But if the denial was the result of a bigger issue, like an employer challenging a claim, then going through the appeals process is probably the right path. (Employers are known to fight claims at times since they can impact how much they pay into UI.)
What does the unemployment appeals process entail?
Americans denied an unemployment claim have the right to an appeal—which doesn’t require a lawyer. This process varies by state, but usually the denied party has around 30 days to start the appeals process. During the appeal, denied applicants continue to file weekly claims, and if they win the appeal they are back-paid the benefits. In Washington State an administrative law judge will be assigned to the case, but appealing applicants can participate in the hearings via telephone.
But there is also an appeals process for employers. If you get unemployment benefits, your employer usually has the right to file its own appeal if it believes you are ineligible.
More people are eligible for unemployment benefits. Whom does this include?
The March stimulus bill passed by Congress expanded who is eligible for unemployment benefits. This includes jobless freelancers, independent contractors, and self-employed business owners. Additionally, some states have waived work-search requirements and typical waiting periods.
The bad news? The expanded eligibility, known as Pandemic Unemployment Assistance, expires at the end of the year.
And unless Congress acts, at the end of the year unemployment benefit coverage will go back to 26 weeks, down from the 39 weeks granted through the CARES Act.
Will Congress pass more enhanced employment benefits?
The stimulus bill passed in March provided an additional $600 weekly in unemployment insurance benefits to everyone who qualifies for his or her state’s program. But those enhanced payments ran out in late July.
For months Democratic and Republican leaders have failed to reach an agreement for another COVID-19 relief package, which would include a replacement or extension of those enhanced unemployment benefits.
So when should we finally expect a deal? Staffers on Capitol Hill expect that breakthrough to come shortly after the inauguration of President-elect Joe Biden on Jan. 20. But if an agreement does come, there is no guarantee it would include enhanced unemployment benefits—let alone another $600 payment. That’s because while many Democrats favor a bigger bill, Republicans by and large think the economy is in better shape than it was last spring and have objected to benefits that might serve as a disincentive, keeping Americans from looking for work.


fortune--2020-12-01--Crystal Ball 2021: Predictions for the economy, politics, technology, and more

If you thought 2020 was an unpredictable year, you probably weren’t paying attention. For over a decade, epidemiologists have sounded the warning that a once-in-a-hundred-years pandemic could ravage the planet, and that even the most advanced nations were ill-prepared for the fallout.
In 2021, we will face challenges both familiar and unforeseen—but we will also see shoots of rejuvenation as the world thaws from lockdown. Here are Fortune’s predictions of how the next year will play out.
Markets: Wall Street and reality remain out of whack
Corporate America will thrive in 2021, but good fortune will not be evenly distributed.
Corporate taxes stay low
After November’s elections, many stock market prognosticators gleefully greeted the promise of a divided U.S. Congress. That’s because the markets tend to perform better when Capitol Hill is gridlocked, as that rules out disruptive policies that threaten to upend business as usual. In 2021, a likely GOP-controlled Senate, or even a fifty-fifty split, puts the kibosh on any Biden administration plans to reverse the Trump tax cuts; that should bode well for corporate profits, which are also primed for a major rebound when the pandemic wanes.
Cruises run aground
Several small cruise operators have gone under since the pandemic essentially shut down the industry in March (and turned some 3,500-person vacations into headline-grabbing superspreader events). The world’s largest cruise conglomerates—Carnival, Royal Caribbean, and Norwegian—have remained afloat by selling ships for scrap and taking on new debt. They say they have enough liquidity to survive several more months of near-total shutdowns. But they’re also burning almost a collective $1 billion every month just to stay afloat—and are expecting to see costs increase once they can get their ships back to sailing around the world again.
Illustration by Nick Little for Fortune
2 million women lost to the U.S. labor force
Between the job losses that have disproportionately affected Black and Latina women and the childcare burdens that have fallen much more heavily on mothers than on fathers, almost 2.2 million women stopped working or looking for work between February and October, according to the National Women’s Law Center. It will take years for these women to fully return to the workforce, and even then they will experience suppressed wages and lost opportunities.
Colleges under threat
Life on campus will look more normal again next fall—sports! dorms! students!—but colleges will be far from free of their financial woes. Up against declining enrollment (and a steep drop in international students), state budget shortfalls, and an economic crisis, small private colleges and second-tier state schools will struggle to survive. (And a good number won’t.) Don’t expect institutions to save themselves by slashing tuition; they’ll try to stay competitive with generous financial aid, but, as always, the average college sticker price will rise.
Politics: Washington, same but different
Some new faces will emerge in 2021, but don’t expect the status quo to be rocked on Capitol Hill.
Trump: Sarah Silbiger—Getty Images; Mcconnell: Jon Cherry—Getty Images; Pelosi: Joe Raedle—Getty Images; Sanders; Scott Olson—Getty Images; Biden: Saul Loeb—AFP via: TV & Capital: Getty Image
Nancy’s farewell tour
At 80, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi has led her party through the hallowed halls of the Capitol Building for nearly two decades. Now she’ll stand at the helm of the Democratic ship for one final voyage across the stormy seas of the Beltway before handing over the rudder. Pelosi has been notoriously tight-lipped about whom she would like her successor to be. Out of the names floated, like Hakeem Jeffries (N.Y.), Cheri Bustos (Ill.), and Tim Ryan (Ohio), we predict it will be California Rep. Linda Sánchez—just elected to her 10th term—who takes the gavel.
The Reaper cometh
Republican Senate Leader Mitch McConnell delights in his nickname, the Grim Reaper, a title he procured from his steady and skillful slaughter of any Democratic bill that crosses his desk. And sure, past performance doesn’t indicate future results, but it seems unlikely that McConnell’s heart will swell three sizes under a Joe Biden presidency. A number of Democrats are hopeful that Biden’s long history in the Senate will give him some sort of in with the notoriously steel-faced McConnell, but we don’t predict any “Kumbaya” moments uniting Mitch’s Republicans with the left.
A new leader for the left
Like Speaker Pelosi, Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders will ease into the octogenarian lifestyle, and progressive Democrats will soon realize that their torchbearer is likely closer to retirement than another presidential run. A leadership vacuum will become a real risk, and there are no obvious candidates with the seniority and stature of Sanders.
There are a number of young progressives working in politics at the state level (N.Y. State Sen. Julia Salazar, we’re looking at you) that Sanders could back for federal runs in 2022.
Trump TV
Sure, the President is having trouble letting go of the Oval Office, but wait until he sees the TV set re-creation. If there’s one thing Donald Trump is good at, it’s entertainment. His rallies captivated a nation, and before that his reality TV show was a runaway hit. In 2021, Trump will partner with One America News Network—already a mouthpiece for the President—for a primetime show that will stick it to Fox News. He’ll go head-to-head against Sean Hannity in the 9 p.m. slot, and steal away Laura Ingraham to serve as his TV Veep.
Student debt canceled
Eager to inject an FDR-esque stimulus into the economy as the pandemic rages on, Biden agrees to Senators Chuck Schumer and Elizabeth Warren’s resolution to wipe away 50 grand of federal debt per borrower. The executive order bypasses Congress and survives multiple legal threats, thanks to broad wording in the Higher Education Act of 1965.
Habers gonna Habe
Fresh off a whirlwind tour documenting the Trump White House, star New York Times reporter Maggie Haberman lands a lucrative book deal and—in her typical prolific fashion—manages to publish the account just before year’s end. The memoir immediately rockets up the bestseller list of her employer. Expect a television adaptation to follow.
Tech: The shadowy valley
It will be a year of reckoning for denizens of the tech industry as their unchecked behavior catches up with them.
Illustration by Nick Little for Fortune
The internet goes private
Platforms like Discord, Telegram, and WhatsApp have grown massively in recent years by helping users create invite-only chats and channels tailored to particular interests or real-world social groups. That will only accelerate, thanks to worries about social media’s effects on our privacy, mental health and, in the U.S., political divides so deep they seem unbridgeable—especially on Facebook.
Driverless cars will kill (again)
In 2018, an Uber test vehicle became the first self-driving car to strike and kill a pedestrian. Now Waymo has dozens of them on the road in Arizona, and Tesla is promising self-driving software in all of its vehicles soon. But the technology is still developing, and even perfect robots can’t prevent every accident, so Uber will have (tragic) company soon enough.
Bitcoin sinks but remains a treasure
Bitcoin will hit an all-time high of $50,000 next year, right before—as usual—crashing. But when the dust settles, the price of the OG cryptocurrency will sustain around $20,000. More investors will flock to the so-called digital gold, largely as a hedge against inflation, as regulators finally approve a Bitcoin ETF.
Google settles antitrust case
The Justice Department’s antitrust case against Google is limited in scope, focusing only on search listings and based on behaviors that have been going on for more than a decade, like Google paying Apple to be the default on iPhones. Expect Google to settle as it has in Europe over similar charges. Consumers will probably get a choice of search engines when buying a new device, and exclusive deals will be out.
A folding phone succeeds
The first folding smartphones had a few things in common besides trying to combine the portability of a phone with the larger display of a tablet. They were powerful, but delicate—and rather expensive, ranging from Motorola’s $1,500 Razr to Samsung’s $2,000 Galaxy Z Fold 2. But companies like Motorola, Xiaomi, and Samsung are relentless at pushing high-end features down to entry-level models. Just as they did with OLED screens and 5G modems, expect at least one of them to offer a folding phone selling for just three figures in 2021.
Global: BoJo’s Brexit and China’s vaccines
The past four years have been but a prelude to the true chaos of Britain leaving the European Union.
Flag & Thermometer: Getty Images; Johnson: Leon Neal—Getty Images; syringe: EyeEm/Getty Images
Brexit food shortages
Although it is now belatedly spending $1 billion to build new border infrastructure, the U.K.’s preparations for Brexit remain incomplete. Expect miles-long lines of trucks at U.K. and French ports, and the very real possibility of food and medicine shortages.
Boris out
Boris Johnson may have once prevaricated about Brexit, but his political identity is now bound to it. British businesses will soon learn the reality of the project, and it is unlikely to go well. Expect Johnson’s premiership to meet an early end.
China vaccinates the world
In 2021, Chinese vaccine makers will supply more vaccines globally than Western firms. Chinese companies currently in Phase III trials are focusing on technologies that won’t require as much cold storage capacity as mRNA vaccines from Pfizer and Moderna, increasing the likelihood that developing countries will be able to support importing and distributing them.
Hottest year on record
Surface temperatures across 2020 indicated it was in the running to beat 2016’s inauspicious record, and 2021 could be worse still. That’s despite global lockdowns that kept cars off the roads and shut down factories. But emissions are cumulative, and temperatures don’t drop on one year alone.
Health: The pandemic has forever changed public health
The behaviors we’ve learned during lockdown are now just how we live.
Virtual doc visits are here to stay
Telemedicine was always the wave of the future; the COVID pandemic just hastened its arrival. As hospitals remain overwhelmed with coronavirus patients, many medical centers have had to cut back on procedures that take place on-site. CVS and subsidiary Aetna beefed up discounts for telehealth visits during the outbreak, and the total market could near $25 billion in the U.S. alone by 2027. Don’t expect this wave to crest post-pandemic.
Vaxxers beat out anti-vaxxers, narrowly
With promising candidates from Pfizer and Moderna, medical experts say they expect widespread distribution of coronavirus vaccines by the middle of 2021. But persuading people to get one is its own challenge. Polls have fluctuated but suggest only 50% to 58% of people will definitely get vaccinated.
Face masks will be worn on New Year’s Eve 2021
There’s a reason why in East Asian countries you see people wearing face masks in public spaces. Some of that boils down to personal hygiene preferences. But regions that have seen widespread, airborne, infectious diseases ravage their communities tend to keep wearing them even after the immediate danger has passed. So don’t be surprised if face masks remain a part of your daily routine.
ACA survives another fight
A GOP-led lawsuit seeking to scuttle Obamacare has already faced skeptical questioning from conservatives Chief Justice John Roberts and Justice Brett Kavanaugh. Expect the Affordable Care Act to live another of its nine lives.
Culture: Delayed Gratification
Next summer will be about celebrating everything we put on hold in 2020.
Illustration by Nick Little for Fortune
Jeff Bezos buys an NFL team
Many thought it would happen in 2019 or 2020, but in 2021 Bezos finally uses his fortune to get ahold of one of the most valuable franchises in sports, whether it’s the nearby Seattle Seahawks or the Washington Football Team. Either way, he’ll cough up a record amount for a sports franchise of any type, and the Mark Cuban comparisons will abound.
An Olympic bubble
“Bubbles” set up by the NWSL and the NBA proved sporting events can still be held safely, and they’ll be the model for the Tokyo Summer Games. Expect many drastic changes, including welcoming far fewer ticketed attendees, having athletes quarantine weeks prior to the opening ceremonies, and regular testing for the duration of the competition.
Money moves to TikTok
How naive we were to think YouTube and Instagram would stay pure. Then ads and influencers flooded feeds. They’re now colonizing the TikTok Wild West, and in 2021 the app is fated to evolve into a full-on business model. Retailers are already pressuring employees to plug them via TikTok. So enjoy the dogs with butter on them (buttadog!) while you can, before they become Kerrygold ads.
New summer of love
After a year of social distancing and staying indoors while watching death tolls tick up over the winter, young Americans need a release. The widespread distribution of a COVID-19 vaccine will coincide with the summer of 2021, just in time for parks across the country to turn into full-on party zones. Think Woodstock-esque full-time gatherings in public outdoor spaces.
A posthumous Oscar
Following a year of cinema hampered by delays and theater closings, Academy voters decide the late Chadwick Boseman saved one of his best performances for last. The beloved Black Panther posthumously wins Best Supporting Actor at the 2021 Oscars for a star turn in Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, his final film appearance.
Rising stars
Byfield: Chris Tanouye—Getty Images; Ashnikko: John Phillips—Getty Images; Touchdown: Courtesy of Teezo Touchdown
Quinton Byfield, hockey player
The highest-drafted Black player in NHL history will star for the L.A. Kings this season and use his prodigious skating skills, quick hands, and size to win Rookie of the Year.
Ashnikko, singer-songwriter
From America, now based in the U.K., 24-year-old Ashnikko found viral fame on TikTok with her song “Stupid.” Her debut album, Demidevil, comes out in February 2021. Her brash style feels new but is catchy enough to make it on pop radio.
Teezo Touchdown, rapper
Teezo Touchdown is a guitar-shredding Beaumont, Texas, native who seamlessly blends rap, rock, and the avant-garde in a way that conjures the sounds of Rick James, Richard Hell, and Tyler, the Creator. Believe us, it works.
By the numbers
3850
S&P 500 at the end of 2021
Stocks will keep climbing as new vaccines gradually awaken more industries from their pandemic-induced comas. But rising interest rates and slowing growth in Big Tech will keep markets out of stampeding-bull territory.
$50 per barrel
Price of oil at the end of 2021
Even with a full economic recovery, demand won’t reach pre-COVID levels, as the work-from-home crowd continues to avoid business travel and commuting. Demand from emerging markets will keep prices from crashing outright.
6
Black CEOs running Fortune 500 companies
There are currently just four Black men (and no Black women) running Fortune 500 companies, and one of them will retire in March. We expect modest but meaningful change on that front next year: Three Black CEOs will be hired, including one woman.
How we did last year
On target
We predicted a strong year for the S&P 500, though weirdly we were too conservative. We said the election polls would be wrong again, even after pollsters made corrections for errors from 2016. We also foresaw that Tesla would raise more capital, that the video-chat app Houseparty would be a hit (though we couldn’t explain why), and that 37 women would be in charge of Fortune 500 companies.
In the ballpark
While Joe Biden didn’t put former Georgia gubernatorial candidate Stacey Abrams on his ticket, she did play a crucial role in his campaign, helping to deliver the Peach State for the President-elect. We got a reality TV show starring the Conways—one that played out on TikTok instead of Bravo.
Off base
There were no Roaring Twenties garden parties; the new James Bond movie was delayed; and just about every major event was put on hold. Angela Merkel has kept her coalition together; the specter of negative interest rates in the U.S. evaporated; and Carrie Lam is still the boss in Hong Kong. Though there’s always the chance we were not wrong, just early.
Crystal Ball contributors: Maria Aspan, Lydia Belanger, Daniel Bentley, Katherine Dunn, Erika Fry, Nicole Goodkind, Robert Hackett, Brett Haensel, Matt Heimer, Aric Jenkins, Jeremy Kahn, Rachel King, Rey Mashayekhi, Grady McGregor, Jake Meth, David Meyer, McKenna Moore, David Z. Morris, Sy Mukherjee, Aaron Pressman
A version of this article originally appeared in the December 2020/January 2021 issue of Fortune with the headline “2021 Crystal Ball.”


fortune--2020-12-01--Why another round of stimulus might be needed

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Good morning.
TIAA CEO Roger Ferguson was our guest on this week’s episode of Leadership Next. Ferguson is stepping down from the helm of the $1.2 trillion money management company next March, but he’s been in the news lately as a potential appointment in a Biden administration. While he didn’t make the first round draft choices, my guess is he’ll eventually end up back in government—perhaps as the first African-American chair of the Federal Reserve Board.
We asked Ferguson about the economy, and whether we were headed toward another economic downturn. His answer:
“The overall economy is roughly 3% or so smaller now than it was at the end of last year, and certainly many sectors are still struggling. And even though the unemployment rate has come down, we still have 10 million Americans unemployed and we are worried about long term unemployed….
“So I do think the odds of a double dip seem to have gone up, and I would encourage Congress and the new administration to think very seriously about another round of stimulus.”
He also talked about how the pandemic has increased inequality:
“This series of crises that we’ve seen…a health crisis, an economic crisis, and a racial justice crisis…have all highlighted the deep inequities that exist across many dimensions. To me the most telling statistic is that African Americans make up approximately 13% of the population but approximately 23% of those who have died from COVID-19.”
You can listen to the full interview on Apple or Spotify.
Also this morning, Fortune editors are releasing their annual Crystal Ball predictions for 2021. Wondering where the S&P 500 will end the year? Or what the price of oil will be? Or which billionaire is going to buy an NFL team? Check out the answers, here.
News below.
Alan Murray
@alansmurray
alan.murray@fortune.com
TOP NEWS
DeepMind breakthrough
DeepMind, the Google-owned artificial intelligence company, has completed an almost 50-year-old scientific quest: it's created an A.I. system that can quite accurately predict the complex shapes of proteins using just the information from their genetic sequences. The implications for medicine are enormous—it will now be possible to look at a DNA mutation and quickly predict how it changes a protein's behavior. Fortune
Retail carnage
As many as 25,000 retail jobs are at risk in the U.K., following the collapse of Philip Green's Arcadia group. Arcadia itself represents 13,000 jobs, including at outlets such as Topshop and Miss Selfridge, but its collapse then triggered the breakdown of JD Sports' potential rescue of department store chain Debenhams—Arcadia was Debenhams' biggest concession operator—so that's another 12,000 people potentially out of work. BBC
Shorter week
Unilever, the Anglo-Dutch consumer goods multinational, is carrying out an experiment in New Zealand: its 81 employees there will only work four days a week, while being paid for five. The aim is to see if the system, which has been promoted by New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern, brings "material change" to the way employees work, as "the old ways of working are outdated and no longer fit for purpose." Fortune
Unemployment benefits
The U.S. government has been paying out less than it should to millions of workers during the COVID-19 pandemic, according to the Government Accountability Office. The watchdog warned of an impact on gig-economy workers and the self-employed, who don't normally receive jobless benefits but are supposed to be supported by the Pandemic Unemployment Assistance program. The GAO also said the Labor Department's weekly unemployment reports were inaccurate due to "flawed estimates of the number of individuals receiving benefits each week throughout the pandemic." Wall Street Journal
AROUND THE WATER COOLER
Who's first?
The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention will have an urgent meeting today to discuss who should be first in line for a coronavirus vaccine, once the drug has been authorized (Moderna is now requesting clearance.) The likely recommendation: frontline health workers and support personnel, plus residents of nursing homes and long-term care facilities. CNN
Amazon and Apple
Want to use a fully-featured Mac mini, but don't have the desk space? Amazon and Apple have you covered—as part of a new partnership, Amazon Web Services is now offering developers the opportunity to build and test their Mac and iOS apps on a cloud-based Mac mini (an actual one, not a virtualized version.) The service is pricier than some smaller competitors, but AWS obviously gets to offer a bunch of other cloud services alongside the Mac mini offering. TechCrunch
Stockpiling again
With just one month of the Brexit transition period left, and with the possibility that there won't be a trade and customs deal in time for the new year, British factories are stockpiling raw materials and racing to complete orders before the EU-U.K. borders become a serious issue. So that's a manufacturing uptick now, but a potential disaster just round the corner. Reuters
2009 redux
The S&P 500 has eerily tracked 2009's path this year—the market dips and recoveries have been very similar, with deviations lasting only a few days. So, what's coming this month? If the echoes continue, expect bumpy progress. Fortune
This edition of CEO Daily was edited by David Meyer.


fortune--2020-12-01--With hospitals increasingly full, Americans can’t get important medical treatments

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The term “elective surgery” is often misunderstood as a procedure like a face-lift or other forms of cosmetic surgery. But in fact, the term covers a wide range of hospitalizations, many of which are serious, such as removing a cancerous tumor.
And as coronavirus cases continue to surge across the U.S., many health systems have yet again had to place a hold on elective surgeries and procedures in order to make room for COVID patients. In some cases, doctors and nurses in certain specialties have been shifted to take care of coronavirus patients while Americans have had to put off routine cancer screenings or heart checkups.
“An elective surgery does not always mean it is optional. It simply means that the surgery can be scheduled in advance,” according to Johns Hopkins Medicine.
“But in some cases it may be for a serious condition such as cancer. Examples of elective surgery include removing a mole or wart, and having kidney stones removed. It may also be done if other forms of treatment are not working.”
There have now been more than 13.5 million confirmed COVID cases in the U.S. and nearly 267,000 deaths. Of course, deaths are a lagging indicator. They’re the final step in a chain of complex medical logistics that begins with receiving a test and then may advance to hospitalization, depending on the severity of the illness.
Health systems from California to Ohio to New York have had to make adjustments given that reality. Cases in the Golden State have soared past 1.2 million as of Nov. 29, a record. Zooming out, nationally, there are currently more than 93,000 Americans hospitalized with COVID-19, according to the COVID Tracking Project. That’s an all-time countrywide high since the pandemic began. And experts fear that a flurry of travelers flying during and after the Thanksgiving holiday will only make matters worse in the coming days and weeks.
The effects have put an enormous strain on ICUs and hospitals. New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo said on Monday that there would be no elective surgeries in Erie County, which houses Buffalo, beginning on Dec. 4.
“Hospital capacity is now the state’s top concern,” he said.
California may also clamp down on elective procedures in the hardest hit regions. Meanwhile, major hospital chains across Northeastern Ohio, such as Summa Health System, will pause elective surgeries beginning on Tuesday.
Peak hospitalizations may not occur until mid-January given holiday travel and the coronavirus’s incubation period. “Obviously, to make this decision, we didn’t do it lightly, and we understand the repercussions of that,” Summa Health System Akron Campus president Dr. David Custodio told local Buffalo affiliate WGRZ.
“I wish we could say exactly we can start [elective procedures] on Jan. 2, but that would be misleading. We don’t know, and that really depends on the trajectory and the capacity,” he continued.


fortune--2020-12-01--COVID-19 was already in the U.S. by December 2019, study says

Testing has found Covid-19 infections in the U.S. in December 2019, according to a study, providing further evidence indicating the coronavirus was spreading globally weeks before the first cases were reported in China.
The study published Monday identified 106 infections from 7,389 blood samples collected from donors in nine U.S. states between Dec. 13 and Jan. 17. The samples, collected by the American Red Cross, were sent to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention for testing to detect if there were antibodies against the virus.
“The findings of this report suggest that SARS-CoV-2 infections may have been present in the U.S. in December 2019, earlier than previously recognized,” the paper said.
Reports of a mysterious pneumonia spreading in Wuhan, China, first emerged in late December 2019. After multiplying rapidly throughout the city in the following weeks, the disease spread across the globe, with the first U.S. case emerging on Jan. 19.
The revelations in the paper by researchers from the CDC reinforce the growing understanding that the coronavirus was silently circulating worldwide earlier than known, and could re-ignite debate over the origins of the pandemic.
It’s not the first evidence showing the virus could have existed or infected people outside China before 2020. A patient in France was found to have contracted the virus after being hospitalized with flu-like symptoms at the end of December, contradicting official statistics showing Covid-19 reached the country from people returning from Wuhan at the end of January.
The CDC study indicated there were isolated infections in the western part of the U.S. in mid-December. Antibodies were also found in early January in other states before the virus was known to have been introduced to those places.
The scientists indicated it’s unlikely that the antibodies developed to curb other coronaviruses, as 84 samples were found to have neutralizing activity specific to SARS-CoV-2.
They also noted it wasn’t possible to determine the magnitude of infections on a state or national level based on the samples, or whether the cases were locally transmitted or travel-related.


fortune--2020-12-01--TIAA CEO Roger Ferguson thinks we could be headed for a ‘double-dip recession’

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From his years of work at the Federal Reserve to nearly 13 years as the CEO of giant money manager TIAA, economist Roger Ferguson knows a thing or two about money. In March, when he steps down as chief executive, he could be headed to Capitol Hill to use that know-how in the Biden administration to address the economic crisis caused and compounded by the coronavirus pandemic, the subsequent health care crisis, and the racial justice crisis that COVID-19 has shone a light on.
“We had the shortest and also one of the deepest recessions in American history, one quarter or less, and a dramatic bounce back,” Ferguson explains on the most recent episode of Leadership Next. And that may not be the end of it.
He says that odds of a double-dip recession are rising, and he encourages Congress to consider another stimulus that gives direct payments to individuals, much like the CARES Act did this spring. This stimulus, though, should include more support for state and local governments, he says. That would help recovery for a host of reasons, one being that it enables communities to choose the best way to spend that money, which could allow the funding to better serve the Black and brown people who are often overlooked in broader plans.
Solutions to the hardship much of America is facing will not just come from the federal government, Ferguson says. This should be addressed by the private sector and higher education as well, using tools like reskilling to support the unemployed.
As the capitalist system in America and abroad is rebuilt in many ways after the pandemic, Ferguson thinks there is ample opportunity to diversify the ranks at all levels and increase the societal value of the work that corporations do. For too long, companies have prioritized short-term profit over long-term sustainability and stakeholder value, he says.
“No long-term strategy is viable if it is not consistent with the best kinds of environmental and social governance behaviors,” Ferguson says.


fortune--2020-12-01--Wendy’s strikes a ‘cloud kitchen’ deal to respond to pandemic

Wendy’s Co. has struck a deal with India’s Rebel Foods to open about 250 so-called cloud kitchens across the country, one of the most ambitious efforts yet to serve customers through delivery rather than the traditional fast-food stores as the industry adapts to the coronavirus pandemic.
The U.S. company is experimenting with a new format as the Covid-19 outbreak makes many consumers unwilling or unable to visit traditional stores. Cloud kitchens, which derive their name from cloud computing, are remote facilities without seating or cashiers that prepare food exclusively for delivery.
Wendy’s, with nine brick-and-mortar outlets in India, said it believes its cloud kitchen alliance is the largest yet in the industry. Rebel Foods, backed by Sequoia Capital and Goldman Sachs Group Inc., is the world’s largest cloud-kitchen operator with more than 300 locations.
“India is one of our high-growth, high-potential markets,” Abigail Pringle, Wendy’s chief development officer, speaking via video conference from the chain’s headquarters in Dublin, Ohio. “I don’t know of any other global brand that has announced this kind of significant multiyear, multi-unit commitment.”
As lockdowns and social distancing disrupt their business models, fast-food chains are experimenting with a variety of ways to adapt. With deliveries surging, many recognize their existing stores aren’t the optimal way to meet demand and have turned to cloud kitchens, also known as ghost or dark kitchens. Chains like Chili’s, Applebee’s and Chipotle have already set up their own delivery-centric virtual locations.
Wendy’s push in India appears to be the largest cloud-kitchen outsourcing deal announced yet, based on the number of locations. Leading startups such as CloudKitchens and Virtual Kitchen, which work with a range of brands in the U.S. and abroad, have fewer than 100 sites. One fast-food operator in Thailand said it plans to open 100 cloud kitchens within five years.
Wendy’s, with 6,800 restaurants in 30 markets worldwide, followed rival burger chains like McDonald’s Corp. into India, opening its first restaurant in New Delhi in 2015. It plans about 150 physical stores over the next decade, in addition to the cloud kitchen push. Sierra Nevada Restaurants, the chain’s franchise partner, will help with both initiatives.
“India is one of the most under-penetrated markets on earth” for quick-serve restaurants, said Jasper Reid, managing director of Sierra Nevada.
Wendy’s, once known for its “Where’s the beef?” tagline, has particular challenges in India, where the majority of citizens worship cows as sacred. Its local menu items include chicken chili, masala fries and the best-selling 69-rupee ($0.93) bun tikki, a spicy potato cutlet served between two burger buns.
Rebel Foods, co-founded by former McKinsey & Co. alum Jaydeep Barman and his INSEAD business school classmate Kallol Banerjee, helped pioneer the cloud kitchen concept. The duo operate their own restaurant brands and are expanding into outsourcing for chains like Wendy’s. With money from Uber Technologies Inc. co-founder Travis Kalanick, along with Sequoia and Goldman, the company has grown to hundreds of kitchens across countries including India, Indonesia and the U.K.
Leveraging the fixed costs of tightly packed, centralized kitchens, it serves far-flung customers who have no idea where their food is prepared. With space-saving, stacked kitchens located in low-cost sites like industrial complexes or side alleys, its model helps side-step the costs of running traditional restaurants with seating and wait staff.
The pandemic has accelerated the adoption of food delivery around the world. In the U.S., deliveries now account for more than 5.5% of Wendy’s overall business, while they’ve reached 11% in Canada.
“For generations, brands building a national presence relied solely on a brick-and-mortar strategy and made significant investments over decades,” said Banerjee on a video conference call. Cloud kitchens are aimed at helping chains expand “at far lower levels of capital.”


fortune--2020-12-01--‘The old ways of working are outdated:’ Unilever is experimenting with a 4-day work week

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Starting next week, employees of consumer goods multinational Unilever in New Zealand will work four days a week—and be paid for five—in a yearlong trial, the company said on Tuesday.
The move is an “experiment” to see if shortening the workweek by one day can “bring material change in the way [employees] work,” Unilever New Zealand managing director Nick Bangs said in a statement.
“We believe the old ways of working are outdated and no longer fit for purpose,” Bangs said.
Unilever has 81 employees in New Zealand. Next December, when the trial ends, the firm will evaluate whether a four-day workweek should be extended to its 155,000 employees across the globe.
In May, New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern said companies should consider implementing four-day workweeks in order to boost employee productivity, provide workers with a better work/life balance, and encourage domestic tourism to make up for a pandemic-induced lack of foreign visitors.
“I’d really encourage people to think about [four-day workweeks] if you’re an employer and in a position to do so,” Ardern said in May.
Bangs said the pandemic’s upheaval of traditional working practices sparked Unilever’s decision to try out the four-day week in New Zealand.
Local New Zealand estate planning firm Perpetual Guardian tested a four-day workweek in 2018, reporting a 20% increase in productivity as well as lower stress levels and greater job satisfaction among its staff. The trial gained global attention, and the company’s founder said there was “no downside” to the shortened week. Later that year, Perpetual Guardian made the four-day workweek permanent.
Unilever’s Bangs said the company “drew inspiration” from Perpetual Guardian for the shortened workweek.
Shorter workweeks are not a new idea. The British economist John Maynard Keynes, writing in 1930, predicted that by 2030, technology would have advanced to a point where most people would work 15-hour weeks while productivity rose.
In 1956, then-U.S. Vice President Richard Nixon said a four-day workweek would arrive in the U.S. in the “not too distant future.”
Labor activists and environmentalists have advocated for four-day weeks on the grounds that they benefit workers and reduce emissions. “Four-day Work Week Improves Environment,” declared a 1997 Journal of Environmental Health article.
Employers that oppose a four-day week have argued that employees end up working less and that a shorter week could make companies less competitive because they won’t be as available to customers.
Last year, Microsoft Japan experimented with a four-day workweek and said productivity jumped 40% and efficiency improved in other areas, including a 23% drop in electricity costs.
Microsoft Japan gave employees Fridays off during the trial, while Perpetual Guardian allowed employees to choose any one day per week to take off.
Bangs said the company wants to change how work is done and avoid a situation in which employees work longer hours to make up for the shorter week, which he said would “miss the point” of the experiment. Unilever is collaborating with the University of Technology Business School in Sydney to measure the results of the experiment.
Unilever’s trial makes it the first multinational in New Zealand to experiment with a four-day workweek. The goods giant owns some of the world’s best-known brands, including Lipton tea, Ben & Jerry’s ice cream, Heinz ketchup, and Dove beauty products.


fortune--2020-12-01--The S&P 500 has been eerily mirroring 2009 for months. Now, here’s what might be in store for Decemb

The S&P 500 has been eerily mirroring 2009 for months. Now, here’s what might be in store for December

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Investors who were around in 2009 might be having déjà vu this year.
That’s because the S&P 500’s run so far in 2020 has eerily tracked the market’s path in 2009, with similar dips and recoveries, strategists have pointed out. Randy Frederick, Charles Schwab’s vice president of trading and derivatives, is one such prognosticator who has long highlighted the roadmap’s accuracy this year—and even he is a little surprised.
“Amazingly, it never really deviated for more than just a few days,” Frederick tells Fortune. “I always expected it eventually to break down but it frankly just never did.”
What’s more, with that pattern having continued “a lot longer than I thought it would,” Frederick says, he believes “it’s pretty late in the game to think it’s going to deviate a whole lot” going into year’s end with about four weeks left for trading.
Indeed, with a selloff to end the month of November, that map appears to be holding up.
“This is kind of exactly what I was expecting: Once we got to that new [S&P 500] high or close to it I thought we might go into a sideways, choppy period that might last two to four weeks and it does appear we’re in that right now,” Frederick says.
Certainly what’s driving this year’s market is “entirely different” than 2009, notes Frederick, with a pandemic (not a man-made financial crisis) shifting markets from red to green all year and record-fast bear markets and recoveries.
But based on the pattern, Frederick believes the market will still end the year higher—even if it’s not a smooth ride.
A choppy December?
Despite a selloff on the month’s final day (with the S&P 500 down 0.46% and the Dow down nearly 1%), stocks finished November almost 11% higher, in line with the historical precedent that, especially during election years, November is a strong month for investors.
And when that happens, according to history, “December traditionally maintains this aura of optimism,” CFRA’s Sam Stovall wrote in a Monday note. However, “the recent three-way all time high by the DJIA, S&P 500, and Russell 2000, combined with the outsized gain for the S&P 500 in November,” may mean investors aren’t going to get quite as big a gift near the holidays.
Moving into December, “history warns, but does not guarantee, that December’s advance could be subdued,” CFRA’s Stovall writes. “Whenever the S&P 500 gained 5% or more in November, which happened 14 times since 1945, December’s price rise and frequency of advance were below average.” (See chart below.)
Apart from the historical gains for December, the remarkable similarity of 2020 and 2009’s market runs suggests December might be a bit bumpier for stocks, Frederick notes. If the S&P 500 stays the course, however, Frederick expects stocks to end the year around 3,700, a roughly 2% rise from Monday’s close.
Plus, there’s always the chance of a so-called Santa Claus rally to boost stocks in the final days of the year.


fortune--2020-12-02--Salesforce just made its biggest acquisition ever

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Salesforce agreed on Tuesday to buy Slack for $27.7 billion, combining two powerhouses in business software.
The deal is the largest acquisition ever by Salesforce, whose core product helps sales teams manage their customers. The company has steadily expanded into new areas, including marketing services and data analytics.
Marc Benioff, Salesforce’s CEO and chairman, described his own dependence on Slack’s instant messaging service for the office during an earnings call after market close on Tuesday. “We see Slack as a once-in-a-generation platform and company. It’s the central nervous system of so many companies on this call,” he said.
In the software industry, Salesforce’s Slack acquisition is exceeded only by IBM’s mega-purchase of cloud caretaker Red Hat for $34 billion in 2018. The runner-up would be Microsoft’s acquisition of LinkedIn for more than $26 billion in 2016.
Benioff said Salesforce’s president, Bret Taylor, and Slack’s CEO, Stewart Butterfield, approached him with the idea for a deal. Their plan: to combine Slack with Salesforce’s Customer 360 product, a central hub for Salesforce’s software services, ranging from sales to marketing, he said.
“It’s a perfect match for us both,” Benioff said, calling the combo a business “supercharger.” Collaboration tools involving chat and video “are the next big moment for our industry,” Benioff added, comparing the occasion to the development of graphical user interfaces, or icon-laden computer screens, in an earlier computing era.
Taylor echoed Benioff’s enthusiasm on the call, describing Slack as “an operating system for the new way to work.” In a statement, Butterfield echoed the laudatory praises, saying the deal represented “the most strategic combination in the history of software.”
Despite the coronavirus pandemic boosting remote work, Slack struggled in the face of competition from Microsoft, which bundles its similar Teams software with its bevy of Office 365 offerings. Slack filed an antitrust complaint against the Redmond, Wash. rival with the European Commission earlier this year.
Slack also fell behind Zoom, the pandemic’s breakout tech star. Slack’s own video collaboration tool has proven much less popular.
Slack’s share price has slumped since its public market debut in June 2019, dipping 30% since then, before Salesforce’s rumored interest last week caused its share price to rocket.
For Salesforce, the acquisition caps off a years-long string of M&A. Before Slack, Salesforce’s biggest acquisition was Tableau, a data analytics firm it bought last year for more than $15 billion. In 2018, it scooped up Mulesoft, another data play, for $6.5 billion.
Analysts expect Salesforce’s move to spur competitors—from Microsoft and Google to Oracle and SAP—to make big moves of their own in the so-called cloud collaboration industry. Earlier this month Adobe bought work management firm Workfront for $1.5 billion.
There are plenty of other potential acquisition targets. Some include Asana, Box, and Dropbox.
Aaron Levie, Box’s CEO, compared Salesforce’s bold bet to Facebook’s prescient acquisition of Instagram for roughly $1 billion in 2012 in terms of its industry-shaking significance. Salesforce “won’t blow it,” he commented on Twitter.
The deal is expected to close midway through next year, pending regulatory approval, Salesforce said.


fortune--2020-12-02--These 10 journalists face additional threats from COVID-19

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As the COVID-19 pandemic wages on, investigative journalists across the world are tirelessly reporting on public responses to the crisis. Those who have been fortunate enough to evade the virus themselves face a unique threat, however: being arrested, fined, detained, or otherwise prevented from doing their crucial work.
In some cases, oppressed journalists find themselves at heightened risk of falling fatally ill. Honduran journalist David Romero and Egyptian journalist Mohamed Monir are among those who have died after contracting the coronavirus in government custody. Another reporter, Azimjon Askarov, died in prison in Kyrgyzstan—of COVID, his family suspects, despite the fact that he was denied a test.
With these individuals and countless others in mind, Fortune partner One Free Press Coalition (OFPC) has focused its monthly ranked “10 Most Urgent” list on cases related to COVID-19. Since spring 2019, Fortune has copublished this list of the 10 most urgent press freedom cases, assembled by the OFPC in partnership with The Committee to Protect Journalists (CPJ).
The CPJ has documented 207 pandemic-related press freedom violations, which include imprisonment, physical attacks, legal threats, and harassment. The organization offers safety advice in more than 40 languages to media professionals both reporting on the coronavirus and in danger of contracting it. The International Women’s Media Foundation (IWMF) offers a collection of trauma resources.
Read last month’s OFPC “most urgent” list here and this month’s below.
Senior journalist especially vulnerable to coronavirus in prison.
Ahmet Altan, 70, has spent more than 1,500 days behind bars and, according to his lawyer, is surrounded by three neighboring cells displaying COVID-19 positive signs. Former chief editor for the shuttered daily Taraf, Altan has been detained since September 2016. In 2018, a court sentenced Altan to life in prison, then in 2019 changed the term to 10.5 years. The retrial convicted him of “aiding a [terrorist] organization without being a member” during the failed attempted coup and sweeping purge in 2016.
Tactics preventing imprisoned Egyptian journalists from being released.
This December, Mohamed Hussein Gomaa will have spent four years behind bars—the longest pre-trial detention of any Egyptian journalist currently awaiting a hearing. Gomaa worked with Al-Jazeera, including contributing to a documentary about conscription in Egypt. Government officials arrested him in 2016 and called the material false with aims of “spreading chaos.” Gomaa was due to be released on probation in mid-2019, but his detention has been repeatedly extended. Fellow Egyptian journalist Mohamad Ibrahim is also enduring this “revolving door policy,” where new charges are brought to keep individuals in pre-trial detention, despite release orders from criminal court.
Tehran sentences journalist to prison to silence reporting on government.
Freelance journalist Mohammad Mosaed was arrested in 2019 because of a post on Twitter, then released in early 2020, only to be re-arrested in February and sentenced to nearly five years in prison. Because of a tweet he released during Iran’s internet shutdown last year and government criticism this year, including its lacking preparedness in responding to COVID-19, Mosaed’s charges have included “colluding against national security” and “spreading propaganda against the system.” His sentence also carries a two-year ban on journalism activities and a two-year ban from using all communications devices.
Journalist enduring medical neglect and inhumane prison conditions.
Freelance reporter Solafa Magdy has suffered deliberate medical neglect and inhumane prison conditions, heightening risk of contracting COVID-19, like fellow Egyptian journalist Mohamed Monir who died from the coronavirus this summer while in pre-trial detention. Magdy was arrested in November 2019 for her coverage of immigration and human rights in Cairo. The state prosecutor’s office has filed additional charges against Magdy for actions she allegedly committed while in pre-trial detention.
Independent journalist imprisoned for coronavirus reporting, now on hunger strike.
Since early February, independent journalist Zhang Zhan had been posting reports from Wuhan, including some criticism of the government’s countermeasures to contain the coronavirus. She went missing on May 14, and the following day security officials issued a notice stating that Zhang had been arrested and detained for “picking quarrels and provoking trouble.” Her former lawyer resigned from the case in October due to pressure and said Zhang has been on a hunger strike for six months, with her three cellmates taking turns to feed her. Two other Chinese journalists, Chen Qiushi and Li Zehua, had gone missing or been arrested in connection to their COVID-19 reporting.
Journalist struggling to find work while facing prosecution for Facebook comments.
Journalist Wan Noor Hayati Wan Alias is facing legal prosecution for three comments she posted on Facebook regarding the COVID-19 outbreak in January. Citing “causing public fear or alarm,” the criminal charges which the Malaysian government is pursuing carry a maximum penalty of two years in prison for each individual post. Hayati, who previously reported for Malaysian daily Berita Harian and English newspaper New Straits Times, has lost work due to retrenchment and is struggling to maintain her livelihood as a freelancer.
Journalist in and out of detention for reporting on corruption, twice posting bail.
Award-winning journalist Hopewell Chin’ono was arrested ahead of a national anti-corruption protest and charged with incitement, after reporting on alleged COVID-19 procurement fraud within Zimbabwe’s Ministry of Health that led to the arrest and sacking of its health minister. After 45 days in pre-trial detention in a maximum security prison, Chin’ono was released on bail in September, then re-arrested at his home in November originally for contempt of court, but later charged with obstruction of justice for a tweet about the National Prosecution Authority (NPA). He was originally denied bail, and then released on bail on Nov. 20. Prosecutors claimed that Chin’ono obstructed justice by “jeopardizing the integrity” of legal proceedings against him in the incitement case, as well as a case against a relative of President Emmerson Mnangagwa, by tweeting about sources within the NPA.
Journalists obstructed from covering the pandemic in Brazil.
On Nov. 2, a group of about nine unidentified men and women harassed and threatened journalist Bárbara Barbosa, cameraman Renato Soder, and NSC TV employees in the southern city of Florianópolis while they were preparing a report on noncompliance of the area’s COVID-19 lockdown. Barbosa said she received hostile messages on Instagram after the incident was reported by local media. Separately, a report found that the office of Rio de Janeiro’s mayor used public funds to pay groups of municipal employees to monitor and obstruct journalists at local hospitals and block news crews from covering COVID-19.
Journalist found guilty for coronavirus post and ordered to pay a fine.
On Nov. 11, Aleksandr Pichugin was found guilty of “disseminating false information that poses a threat to citizens’ lives and health” and ordered to pay a fine of $3,920. The case stems from an April 12 article on his political commentary and satire Telegram channel “Sorokin Khvost.” Pichugin said the post criticized the Russian Orthodox Church for its failure to take safety measures to protect congregants from contracting COVID-19. He published the post after he and other local bloggers met with the governor of Nizhny Novgorod, who asked them to use their platforms to encourage the population to comply with COVID-19 restrictions, the journalist said. Federal Security Service agents detained Pichugin for one night and held his laptop and mobile phone one month for examination.
Charges against senior journalist threaten extended prison term.
A human rights activist and columnist at Newsclick news website, Gautam Navlakha has been jailed since April and faces charges on alleged links to Maoist militants and being part of a conspiracy to assassinate Prime Minister Narendra Modi. He has written frequently on issues related to Kashmir and Maoist separatism. Navlakha, who is in his 60s, has said he maintains his innocence and is worried about receiving a fair and speedy trial. Further, he has said he fears exposure to the COVID-19 virus while in prison and being held in prison for years, unlikely to receive bail due to the nature of the charges against him.
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fortune--2020-12-02--After a November to remember for the markets, could December be even better?

This is the web version of Bull Sheet, a no-nonsense daily newsletter on what’s happening in the markets. Sign up to get it delivered free to your inbox.
Good evening, Bull Sheeters. This is Fortune finance reporter Rey Mashayekhi, filling in this week for Bernhard with a special PM edition of the newsletter.
Having just had a historically good November, markets around the world kicked off December in style, spurred by positive manufacturing data out of Asia and good coronavirus vaccine news in Europe. There was even bullish sentiment around bipartisan stimulus talks in Washington—at least until the Senate majority leader pitched in.
Markets update
U.S.
In New York , the markets put Monday’s lackluster denouement to November behind them. Both the S&P 500 (+1.1%) and the Nasdaq (+1.3%) set new record closing highs , while the Dow climbed 0.6%.
, the markets put Monday’s lackluster denouement to November behind them. Both the (+1.1%) and the (+1.3%) set new , while the climbed 0.6%. Investors got a lift from news that lawmakers on both sides of the aisle had come together to unveil a new $908 billion COVID-19 stimulus bill that would aid a U.S. economy still struggling with the pandemic’s impact. But Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) was skeptical of the proposal, calling instead for a “targeted relief bill” of more limited scope.
that would aid a U.S. economy still struggling with the pandemic’s impact. But Senate Majority Leader (R-Ky.) was skeptical of the proposal, calling instead for a “targeted relief bill” of more limited scope. Elsewhere on Capitol Hill , the Senate Banking Committee pressed Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell over their diverging views on the Fed’s emergency credit lending facilities . Mnuchin has declined to extend the facilities—which the Fed launched in response to the pandemic—against Powell’s protests.
, the Senate Banking Committee pressed Treasury Secretary and Federal Reserve chairman over their diverging views on the . Mnuchin has declined to extend the facilities—which the Fed launched in response to the pandemic—against Powell’s protests. U.S. manufacturing activity , while continuing to expand in November, saw growth slow down from the previous month as the nation dealt with a new wave of COVID-19 infections.
, while continuing to expand in November, saw growth slow down from the previous month as the nation dealt with a new wave of COVID-19 infections. Exchange operator Nasdaq has proposed mandatory board diversity requirements in a new filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission. The proposal would require the 3,000-plus companies listed on the stock exchange to have at least one woman and one racial minority or LGBTQ individual on their board of directors.
Europe
The European bourses were up across the board on Tuesday. London’s FTSE led the way by gaining 1.9%, while the CAC 40 in Paris climbed 1.1%. Frankfurt’s DAX (+0.7%) and the pan-European STOXX 600 (+0.7%) registered more modest gains.
were up across the board on Tuesday. London’s led the way by gaining 1.9%, while the in Paris climbed 1.1%. Frankfurt’s (+0.7%) and the pan-European (+0.7%) registered more modest gains. Those markets were likely boosted by news that both the Pfizer/BioNTech partnership and Moderna have applied for emergency approval of their COVID-19 vaccines with the European Union.
partnership and have applied for with the European Union. As in the U.S., European manufacturing saw slowing growth in November, as COVID-19 cases climbed and lockdown restrictions took hold across the continent.
saw slowing growth in November, as COVID-19 cases climbed and lockdown restrictions took hold across the continent. Scandal-plagued Swiss financial giant Credit Suisse has tapped Antonio Horta-Osorio , the outgoing CEO of British bank Lloyds , as its new chairman. On Monday, Lloyds named HSBC wealth and personal banking head Charlie Nunn as Horta-Osorio’s successor.
has tapped , the outgoing CEO of British bank , as its new chairman. On Monday, Lloyds named wealth and personal banking head as Horta-Osorio’s successor. Diplomats from Germany, France, and Britain urged the Trump administration to reconsider fresh sanctions against Iranian banks this fall, according to Reuters.
this fall, according to Reuters. A no-deal Brexit is still very much a possibility, senior British minister Michael Gove said 30 days before the end of the U.K’s “transition” period out of Europe.
Asia
The Asian markets kicked off a bullish day with gains across the board Tuesday. Tokyo’s Nikkei climbed 1.3%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng ticked up 0.9%, and South Korea’s KOSPI gained 1.7%. On mainland China, Shanghai’s SSE Composite (+1.8%) and Shenzhen’s SZSE Component (+1.9%) both were up.
kicked off a bullish day with gains across the board Tuesday. Tokyo’s climbed 1.3%, Hong Kong’s ticked up 0.9%, and South Korea’s gained 1.7%. On mainland China, Shanghai’s (+1.8%) and Shenzhen’s (+1.9%) both were up. Unlike its counterparts in the U.S. and Europe, China’s factory sector grew at its highest level in a decade in November, according to a benchmark manufacturing PMI, signaling that the country’s economy is rebounding strongly from the pandemic.
grew at its highest level in a decade in November, according to a benchmark manufacturing PMI, signaling that the country’s economy is rebounding strongly from the pandemic. In Japan , third-quarter data showed further weakening in corporate capital expenditures and profits, with the government drawing up plans for stimulus measures.
, third-quarter data showed further weakening in corporate capital expenditures and profits, with the government drawing up plans for stimulus measures. ASEAN and the EU have agreed to strengthen ties with the goal of promoting “safe and open trade routes and a free and fair trade,” according to Germany’s foreign minister.
Elsewhere
Gold climbed 2% to get back over $1,800/ounce .
climbed 2% to get back over . Conversely, the dollar sank to its lowest level in over two years on news of stimulus talks in D.C.
sank to its lowest level in over two years on news of stimulus talks in D.C. Bitcoin also retreated, as all eyes remain on whether the digital currency can eclipse $20,000.
also retreated, as all eyes remain on whether the digital currency can eclipse $20,000. Crude oil fell around 1%, with Brent settling at north of $47/barrel.
Tech-tonic moves
Tuesday saw two Silicon Valley tech giants shed light on major financial moves that promise to transform each company for years to come.
Most notably, Salesforce officially unveiled its acquisition of workplace communications platform Slack Technologies. The cash-and-stock transaction comes at a price tag of $27.7 billion, making it one of the largest software industry deals ever. (As CNBC notes, IBM’s $34 billion purchase of Red Hat, in 2018, takes the cake.)
Though the acquisition still needs the approval of both regulators and Slack shareholders, it could prove a major step forward for the Marc Benioff-led behemoth as it angles for superiority in a cutthroat business software market. One analyst described the deal as “a major shot across the bow at Microsoft,” its major rival in that market, and it comes only 18 months after Salesforce announced its previous record acquisition, a $15 billion-plus purchase of big data firm Tableau Software. Salesforce has long shown itself to be a company of enormous ambitions; now, it’s adding one of the buzziest names in enterprise software to its offerings.
In the day’s other major, Silicon Valley-related development on Wall Street, Airbnb revealed in a regulatory filing that it’s aiming for a roughly $35 billion valuation through its upcoming IPO. The vacation rental startup plans to sell nearly 52 million shares at a target price range of $44 to $50 a piece, which would yield proceeds up to $2.6 billion. Airbnb plans to list on the Nasdaq later this month under the ticker ABNB.
A public listing at those numbers would represent a huge success for the company, which understandably saw its business suffer this year at the hands of a pandemic that brought global travel to a near-standstill. But after laying off a quarter of its workforce and raising $2 billion in debt and equity funding, Airbnb rebounded in relatively short order—posting a surprise third-quarter net profit, per its S-1 filings, and clearing the path to its long-anticipated IPO. Such is the company’s turnaround that a $35 billion valuation would nearly double the $18 billion private valuation from Airbnb’s most recent funding round this past spring.
***
That’s all for now; please be sure to check out today’s reads below. Have a pleasant evening and see you again tomorrow.
Rey Mashayekhi
@reym12
rey.mashayekhi@fortune.com
As always, you can write to bullsheet@fortune.com or reply to this email with suggestions and feedback.
Today's reads
Don’t double-dip. Could the U.S. be heading for yet another economic recession? Roger Ferguson, the CEO of money manager TIAA, certainly thinks it’s a possibility. “We had the shortest and also one of the deepest recessions in American history... and a dramatic bounce back,” Ferguson told Fortune’s Leadership Next podcast. Without additional government stimulus measures, Ferguson—who has been heavily linked to a role in the Biden administration—fears a so-called “double-dip recession” could be in the cards.
Party like it’s 2009. You may not have noticed, but the S&P 500’s trajectory this year eerily mirrors that of 11 years ago. Despite their undoubtedly different circumstances, Fortune’s Anne Sraders examined the uncanny similarities between 2009 and 2020, and why they could mean a “choppy” December is in store for investors.
Some of these stories require a subscription to access. There is a discount offer for our loyal readers if you use this link to sign up. Thank you for supporting our journalism.
Market candy
“Investors are giving us a lot of credit for future profitability but if, at any point, they conclude that’s not going to happen, our stock will immediately get crushed like a souffle under a sledgehammer!”
That’s Elon Musk in an email to Tesla employees, warning them to be wary of Wall Street’s fickle ways. Though 2020 has been an incredibly successful year for Tesla and its shareholders, Musk noted that the company needs to control costs in the interest of maintaining quarterly profits—or else find itself on the receiving end of the market’s sledgehammer.


fortune--2020-12-02--Free your mind, and good design will follow

“This is a time for radical imagination,” says Deanna Van Buren. “It does something to your brain. We can’t solve the problems we’re facing if we don’t all get into that elastic mindspace.”
I had never heard of an elastic mindspace before, but at that moment, dear reader, I had never wanted to get into anything more.
I was catching up with Van Buren, the co-founder and executive director of Designing Justice + Designing Spaces, in advance of our fireside chat at next week’s Fortune Brainstorm Design session, the first in a series of three virtual discussions presented in partnership with Salesforce and IBM. The session is called “Resilience by Design: Driving Business Transformation, and the mindspace stretching has already begun.
Van Buren is something of a marvel in the design and social justice world; her non-profit is working to end mass incarceration and build thriving communities through a variety of radically reimagined architecture and infrastructure projects that seek to address societies persistent ills of racism, poverty, and unequal access to opportunity. Check out their Love Campus project, a social justice hub and restorative reinvestment project in Detroit, as just one example of their work.
The Oakland-based architect-designer-real estate developer says a fully collaborative and robust design process can save the world. “We can’t keep putting band-aids on the old systems,” she says. “Sticker dot voting or post-it notes won’t get us there.”
It’s now a global imperative. Limits—of time, space, materials, use cases, etc.—are what spark great design, and the global pandemic has forced everyone to reexamine the products, services, systems, processes and assumptions that undergird the modern world all at once. And not just professional designers are on the hot seat for answers.
“It’s like the lightbulb joke,” my dear friend Jessica Helfand, a podcast partner on The Design of Business | The Business of Design, explained to me. “How many designers does it take to screw in a lightbulb?” she laughed. “To which the answer is … Does it have to be a lightbulb?”
No, but now, it does have to make business better and the world brighter. So get your radical imagining on. “We need everyone,” says Van Buren. “That’s the only way to get surprising new outcomes.”
Best of all, we’re all in on the joke.
So, if you’re a senior design executive (or simply a design adjacent senior executive) maybe you should stop by the session on December 8. You can register here, we still have some spots left. Also speaking will be PepsiCo’s chief design officer Mauro Porcini and global chief commercial officer Ram Krishnan about how design and design thinking can help create business value.
Better yet, if you’ve been looking to get to know the senior designers in your firm, this is a great excuse to say hello and sign up together. Forward them this email and connect! My Brainstorm Design co-chairs, Brian O’Keefe, Clay Chandler, and I are planning a terrific small group session for stretching brains and sharing ideas.
It’s time to make the world a little brighter, by design.
Ellen McGirt
@ellmcgirt
Ellen.McGirt@fortune.com
Today's mood board
“I love that I am trans. And I love that I am queer." Congratulations, Elliot!


fortune--2020-12-01--Pioneering tech company to leave Silicon Valley for Texas

Hewlett Packard Enterprise, one of the founding companies of Silicon Valley, plans to relocate its headquarters to Houston from San Jose, Calif., following years of waning technology-industry dominance that came with the rise of newer businesses focused on mobile and internet-based computing.
The company said it was already building a “state-of-the-art” new campus in Houston, the fourth-largest U.S. city. HPE also reported quarterly revenue that topped analysts’ predictions, suggesting that businesses are upgrading their data-center hardware during the coronavirus pandemic.
HPE was created in the 2015 split of one of the consummate Bay Area technology companies, Hewlett-Packard Co., which was founded in 1939 in a Palo Alto garage. The move to Texas comes amid a broader re-evaluation, motivated by pandemic-enforced work-from-anywhere arrangements, by individuals and companies who are opting to leave behind a region known for its high cost of living and difficult commute.
Chief Executive Officer Antonio Neri has been working to turn around HPE, a maker of servers, storage hardware and networking gear, which had reported declining revenue in all but one quarter since separating from personal-computer maker HP Inc. Neri is reducing the company’s overhead costs, exiting unprofitable businesses and chasing the hybrid-cloud market, in which businesses store and process some of their information in corporate data centers and some with public cloud companies.
Sales in the quarter ended Oct. 31 were little changed from a year ago at $7.2 billion. Analysts, on average, estimated $6.9 billion, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Profit, excluding some items, was 37 cents a share in the fiscal fourth quarter, HPE said Tuesday in a statement. Analysts had projected 34 cents.
The spread of Covid-19 and the economic slowdown it triggered had suppressed demand for networking and computer hardware and services. Now that companies have settled into remote work for many employees, they’re investing in gear to make that more efficient.
“The global pandemic has forced businesses to rethink everything from remote work and collaboration to business continuity and data insight,” Neri said in the statement. “We saw a notable rebound in our overall revenue, with particular acceleration in key growth areas of our business.”
Fiscal fourth-quarter sales increased 6% from the prior period. In the current quarter, HPE projected that profit, excluding some items, will be 40 cents to 44 cents. That compares with an average analyst prediction of 35 cents, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The company said sales will decline from the preceding period at a percentage in the mid-single digits, in line with normal seasonal patterns. A decline of 5% would indicate sales of about $6.84 billion. That compares with an average analyst estimate of $6.63 billion.
The company will keep its technology innovation hub in San Jose, at a relatively new building, CEO Neri said on a conference call with analysts. Administrative work will be centered at the new Texas headquarters. Consolidating more expensive facilities in California will lead to real estate cost savings, he said.
No staff reductions are associated with the move, HPE said in the statement. The company has locations in several cities in Texas, including Austin and Plano, and has more than 2,600 workers in Houston, according to a statement from the office of Governor Greg Abbott.
HPE shares were little changed in extended trading after closing at $11.20 in New York. They have declined 29% this year.


fortune--2020-12-01--Glut of SPACs will lead to ‘heartbreak,’ say IPO experts

If the business world had a word of the year, chances are the choice for 2020 would be “SPAC.” The term, which rhymes with whack, stands for Special Purpose Acquisition Company and describes a public firm whose sole purpose is to acquire another company.
While SPACs have been around for years, they have taken off like never before as Refinitiv reports there had been 165 such listings as of October—more than double last year’s total, and five times the 2015 total.
This glut of SPAC listings means that some of the new shell companies will be unable to find a suitable target to acquire—or will overpay for a mediocre firm, stiffing investors in the process.
“It’s a heartbreak looking for a place to happen,” says Lise Buyer, the founder of Glass V Group, a consultancy that provides advice about public listing.
Buyer made the remark at Fortune‘s virtual Brainstorm Tech conference where she spoke alongside Ashley MacNeill of Morgan Stanley and Paul Ryan, the former Speaker of the House who is now Chairman of Executive Network Partnering Corp, a SPAC that listed this summer.
Ryan and MacNeill agreed with Buyer’s sentiment that there are too many SPACs in relation to companies that are suitable acquisition vehicles. MacNeill, who is shepherding Airbnb’s planned IPO, said there will be a bifurcation in the future between high and low quality SPAC companies.
Ryan, meanwhile, claimed that the conventional SPAC model, in which founders obtain a 25% stake in the venture, creates misaligned incentives that can stiff ordinary investors. His firm, he says, has created a superior model of SPAC in which the founders receive 5% and can only earn a further 20% if the stock in the acquired company goes up.
All of this reflects how the range of options for companies to go public has evolved in recent years. Buyer noted that, in the past, SPACs were a preferred vehicle of companies operating in controversial industries such as cannabis or gambling, but that now all sorts of companies are using them.
At the same time, Buyer noted the biggest beneficiary of SPACs has been the investment banks that help administer them. This may be changing, though, as more companies seek alternate models beyond SPACs and traditional IPOs.
Buyer credited Slack and Spotify—both of which conducted their IPOs via direct listings—with causing more companies to explore going public in non-traditional ways. She recommended an auction model as among the best options for a company to raise money in public markets.
As for the effect of COVID on raising capital, MacNeill said it has accelerated existing trends, including shorter lockup periods. Another result, said Buyer, has road shows going virtual—a process she says is superior because it lets a company visit more potential investors without having to hopscotch all over the country.
As for SPACs, Ryan said they are still an excellent investment vehicle if designed correctly. He claimed Executive Network Partnering Corp’s has been 100% oversubscribed thanks to its novel incentive model.
“I do see a yearning for something new and different that gets companies where they want to be,” said Ryan.


fortune--2020-12-01--The IPO market in 2020 was ‘record-breaking’—and 2021 is looking just as busy, says NYSE president

Aribnb. Palantir. Snowflake. DoorDash. Going public is all the rage in 2020. And now 2021 is shaping up to be an exciting year for IPOs.
Against all the odds as a pandemic and volatility roiled the public markets, 2020 was a “historic year when it comes to IPOs. We had the busiest year we’ve ever had in the history of the NYSE,” New York Stock Exchange president Stacey Cunningham said at Fortune‘s virtual Brainstorm Tech conference on Tuesday.
The typical “inverse correlation between market volatility and the IPO activity” was broken in 2020, as the stock exchange titan has seen “record-breaking IPO activity, not just IPOs but also through follow-on offerings, as companies are using the public markets to raise money to fight off the challenges of COVID-19 that they’ve been facing,” Cunningham said.
Part of the frenzy to go public, says Cunningham, owes to companies realizing that raising money in the private markets was “more expensive suddenly,” while public companies were “very easily and efficiently” raising money in the public markets. “So really the value of the public markets was on display,” she said. That’s prompted lots of CEOs to ask themselves, “would they always have the same access to capital in the private markets? And so some of them started to dip their toe into going public sooner,” says Cunningham.
Indeed, even a controversial and drawn-out Presidential election hasn’t been enough to stem the flow of S-1 filings this fall: Cunningham says she’s seeing companies “coming back off the sidelines, ready to go public, and not just in the month of December but in early 2021,” Cunningham said.
That doesn’t mean companies are all just opting for traditional IPOs. Firms are considering an array of options to going public, including SPACs (special purpose acquisition companies) and direct listings—methods that aren’t quite as tethered to market conditions and “where there isn’t a capital raise happening at the same time,” Cunningham says.
But whether via SPACs or IPOs, Cunningham sees a healthy pipeline come next year: “2021 has a pretty high bar to beat, but it’s looking busy so far.”


fortune--2020-12-01--Quantum computing could reach the market by 2023, says IBM CEO

Quantum computing remains a science-fiction catchphrase for many. But according to IBM CEO Arvind Krishna, his company’s clients could be using the technology, and reaping huge benefits, as soon as 2023.
“The impact [of quantum computing] on our clients…is going to be in the hundreds of billions of dollars,” Krishna said at today’s Fortune Brainstorm Tech virtual conference. Those benefits will be particularly pronounced in medicine.
“If you want to understand penicillin or caffeine, you can’t do that on a conventional supercomputer, no matter how big you make it,” Krishna explained. The subatomic randomness that gives those precious substances their powerful effects are difficult to model with conventional computers, which consist of simple on-off switches known as bits.
By contrast, a quantum computer can mirror randomness. That’s useful not just for medicine, but materials science, weather forecasting, financial modeling, and other problems that involve huge amounts of data and chaotic interactions.
Quantum computing may eventually help IBM solve a more mundane problem: how to keep revenues growing.
Krishna, who succeeded Ginni Rometty as IBM’s CEO in February of 2020, has long focused on cloud computing services, culminating in the acquisition of Red Hat, which he spearheaded before being named CEO. In October, IBM announced plans to spin out slower-growing parts of its business and to focus on cloud and artificial intelligence. Quantum computing, though less strategically central, would also remain under the IBM umbrella.
Speaking to Fortune’s Aaron Pressman, Krishna focused on IBM’s “hybrid cloud” strategy, which the company says represents a $1 trillion market. IBM’s main goal is not to build their own cloud services, but to help big business manage multiple clouds. That’s an appealing proposition not just because different cloud providers offer different strengths, but because dependence on any one vendor is risky.
In October, IBM reported that its cloud services revenue for the prior 12 months had grown by 25% from the previous 12 months. Krishna said those results are being obscured by slower-growing IBM units, such as IT infrastructure services, and that the planned spinoff will clarify IBM’s core strength. The COVID-19 pandemic has dramatically accelerated growth in cloud computing.
The pandemic has also changed how offices work, and Krishna provided some insight into IBM’s mindset. Only 10% to 15% of IBM employees, he noted, are working in offices, with the rest still remote. Krishna thinks that shift is basically here to stay.
“We’re going to end up with a hybrid model,” the CEO said. “[Employees] are going to come into the office for meetings, for serendipity. But I think that 40-hour weeks in the office will be a thing of the past” for most workers.
“The office becomes a place to meet,” said Krishna, “Not a cubicle where you do routine work.”