fortune--2020-04-28--Alphabet’s and Facebook’s upcoming earnings are expected to be bad. The question is how bad?

Google’s parent company, Alphabet, and Facebook this week are expected to confirm what is likely to be a huge slowdown in their businesses, a result of the coronavirus pandemic.
Advertisers have slashed their spending, giving the two tech giants a harsh dose of the new reality. Investors will see the actual damage when Alphabet reports its earnings on Tuesday, followed by Facebook on Wednesday.
The effects of declining ad spending began midway through the first quarter, as several countries in Asia, followed by Europe and then the U.S., implemented stay-at-home orders. Analysts expect the full force of the pullback to hit during the second quarter.
“This is really the first major economic dislocation they’ve been through” since the financial meltdown in 2008, said Colin Sebastian, an analyst with investment bank Baird. And the current crisis came on more swiftly, he added.
The subdued expectations are a major shift for the two companies, which for the past decade have dramatically grown their digital ad businesses. Both Alphabet and Facebook are the biggest recipients of digital ad dollars.
Baird predicts Alphabet will report $33.8 billion in first-quarter revenue excluding the payments it makes to publishers, up 15% from last year versus up 19% in the year-ago quarter. For the second quarter, the investment bank expects revenue growth by the same basis to slow even more, to 1%, compared to 21% in the year-ago quarter.
As for Facebook, Baird says first-quarter revenue will actually grow 16% to $17.5 billion, although that’s far slower than a year earlier, during which revenue grew 26%. In the second quarter, it said, Facebook’s sales will increase 5%, versus a 28% gain in the year-ago quarter.
Alphabet will feel greater pain than Facebook because of the large number of travel industry ads it usually sells, coupled with its dependence on small and medium-size businesses. Baird expects some airlines and hotels to almost entirely eliminate their online ad budgets.
Overall, online ad spending for all marketers is expected to tumble 15% to 20% in March compared to February, according to data marketing software company Zeta Global.
Despite the slowdown, Alphabet and Google are more insulated from the decline than most ad-dependent companies. Marketers that are active during the pandemic are tending to stick with Google and Facebook because of their huge reach and strong ad-targeting capabilities, Zeta Global said.
Analysts at research firm MoffettNathanson say while they expect smaller companies like Twitter and Snap, whose financial results beat analysts’ lowered first-quarter expectations last week, to suffer the most as marketers cut their budgets, Facebook and Google “are not immune.”
Last month, Facebook warned that it was seeing a “weakening” in its ad business as a result of the pandemic. And Alphabet CEO Sundar Pichai sent a memo to employees last week saying that Google would slow hiring for the rest of the year, a result of the financial strain.
Facebook has said while its ad business is slowing, people are using its products more than ever. Meanwhile, analysts suspect that Google Cloud, which allows Google customers to store their data and access it over the Internet, is also gaining traction as more companies adjust to operating in an environment in which a lot of work must be done remotely.
Undoubtedly, investors will closely dissect Google and Facebook’s earnings to gauge the health of the overall digital ad industry.
“Because of its large share of the U.S. and worldwide digital advertising markets, Alphabet’s earnings report will give clues as to what to expect for the broader digital ad market in Q2 and through the rest of the year,” Nicole Perrin, analyst for eMarketer, wrote in a recent note.
Analysts expect digital ad spending to slowly return later this year and into next year, assuming there isn’t a second wave of the coronavirus or a prolonged recession. The fourth quarter, which is usually big for advertisers and e-commerce because of the holidays, will be the true “test” on whether consumers are ready to spend money again, said Baird analyst Sebastian.
“To get back to where we were, it’ll be less likely to happen in 2020 and more likely to happen in 2021,” he said.
Correction: An earlier version of this article mischaracterized what investment bank Baird had predicted about Alphabet’s financial performance. The article has been updated to provide accurate numbers.
More must-read tech coverage from Fortune:
—How a pharmacy delivery startup has capitalized on the coronavirus pandemic
—SBA website leaks personal data of 8,000 small-business loan applicants
—Is A.I. better at diagnosing illnesses than doctors? Don’t believe all the hype
—What Seattle and San Francisco can teach us about mitigating the scourge of COVID-19
—Listen to Leadership Next, a Fortune podcast examining the evolving role of CEO
—WATCH: Best earbuds in 2020: Apple AirPods Pro Vs. Sony WF-1000XM3
Catch up with Data Sheet, Fortune’s daily digest on the business of tech.


fortune--2020-04-28--A peek inside the pandemic-era boardroom

Boneless chicken is first to go scarce as coronavirus hits U.S. meat supply

Good morning, Broadsheet readers! Hope Hicks strategizes White House coronavirus communications, PPE is designed for men, and female directors give us a peek into the pandemic-era boardroom. Have a nice Tuesday.
– The pandemic-era boardroom. Want a peek inside the pandemic-era boardroom? TheBoardlist, a marketplace that connects CEOs with qualified female director candidates, is giving us a glimpse this morning with a new, albeit small, survey of women board members.
A few takeaways from the 100 respondents who answered the survey in mid-April:
The fallout of the coronavirus caught many boards off-guard. Going into the pandemic, nearly half of all boards—45%—did not have emergency plans in place for how they would communicate in the event of a crisis. But now they’re in touch more than before , with 80% of directors saying the cadence of communication among board members is more frequent.
Going into the pandemic, nearly half of all boards—45%—did not have emergency plans in place for how they would communicate in the event of a crisis. , with 80% of directors saying the cadence of communication among board members is more frequent. Virtual board meetings are not necessarily new—and they’re here to stay. More than half of respondents—52%—said they were not required to attend board meetings in person before COVID-19 hit, and 49% disagree that physical attendance of board meetings will be required in the future.
More than half of respondents—52%—said they were not required to attend board meetings in person before COVID-19 hit, and 49% disagree that physical attendance of board meetings will be required in the future. Board members have mixed pandemic-era priorities : Business continuity (27%), cash management (27%), long-term business impact (25%), and employee safety (19%). But t here’s more consensus on boards’ primary role in this moment : Providing external perspective and information (50%), scenario planning (22%), emotional support for the CEO and management team (19%), and identifying cost cutting measures (3%).
: Business continuity (27%), cash management (27%), long-term business impact (25%), and employee safety (19%). : Providing external perspective and information (50%), scenario planning (22%), emotional support for the CEO and management team (19%), and identifying cost cutting measures (3%). Succession planning is still inadequate, even in a pandemic. Corporations are notoriously bad at planning for leadership shake-ups, and a global pandemic hasn’t hastened all to act; 38% of respondents say their boards and management teams have no succession plan should someone get sick.
Corporations are notoriously bad at planning for leadership shake-ups, and a global pandemic hasn’t hastened all to act; 38% of respondents say their boards and management teams have no succession plan should someone get sick. The question of the moment is certainly: When does this all end? The survey gives us one timeline to consider: the vast majority of directors see their own company’s rebound taking at least six months. When asked for their “best guess” on the timeframe their company would need to “recover” from the crisis, 74% of respondents gave that answer (the longest timeframe to choose from), followed by three months (15%), and one month (10%).
Claire Zillman
claire.zillman@fortune.com
@clairezillman
Today’s Broadsheet was produced by Emma Hinchliffe.
ALSO IN THE HEADLINES
- Driving forward. General Motors, led by CEO Mary Barra, is racing to stockpile cash to get through the coronavirus pandemic. The automaker suspended its shareholder dividend and drew on a credit line of at least $15 billion. Analysts estimate that GM is in a better position to face the crisis than Ford. Wall Street Journal
- Diversity dip. German companies aren't known for the diversity among the top ranks of their leaders. Now, the short tenure of Jennifer Morgan as SAP co-CEO—appointed and ousted within six months—is seen as a setback for the cause. Morgan was the first woman to run one of the country's top-listed companies; women in German business say the nation has a "special issue" with gender. Bloomberg
- Here's Hoping. Who is designing President Trump's communication strategy amid the coronavirus pandemic? That would be Hope Hicks. The former communications director returned to the White House just in time for the global crisis. Politico
- All is revealed. The coronavirus crisis has revealed three truths about work and parenting to American employers, writes Claire Cain Miller: Parenting happens at all hours; it's not just a personal choice, but a public good; and it requires societal support. (We're guessing many of you knew all of that already!) New York Times
MOVERS AND SHAKERS: The Drone Racing League named as president Rachel Jacobson, former NBA SVP of global partnerships.
IN CASE YOU MISSED IT
- Ill-fitting consequences. Forget the shortages of personal protective equipment—sometimes the PPE that is available at hospitals doesn't even fit! Female healthcare workers in the U.K. say masks and gowns are designed for men, putting them in danger when ill-fitting gear fails to protect them from the virus. Guardian
- No. 1, y'all. Some good news from the world of country music: for the first time ever, two debuting female artists had back-to-back No. 1 hits on the country radio chart. Newcomers Ingrid Andress and Gabby Barrett achieved the milestone. Variety
- Quarantainment. Surprise, we're getting a Michelle Obama Netflix documentary! Streaming May 6, the documentary will follow the former first lady's book tour for Becoming. And in a few months, there will be a new biography of Meghan Markle and Prince Harry, expected to describe the past few years from the couple's point of view, with Meghan depicted in a "more flattering light."
ON MY RADAR
Nancy Pelosi endorses Joe Biden's presidential bid Time
Gates Foundation to concentrate on coronavirus Financial Times
Women are buying 'Essential AF' shirts, candles, and wine glasses The Atlantic
You’ll want to learn the name Maitreyi Ramakrishnan. She’s Netflix’s next teen star LA Times
PARTING WORDS
"Make sure she’s praised as a hero, because she was."
-Philip C. Breen, father of Dr. Lorna M. Breen, medical director of the emergency department at NewYork-Presbyterian Allen Hospital. She died by suicide after treating coronavirus patients.


fortune--2020-04-28--Ford’s swift pivot to PPE showcases the automaker’s competitive edge in design

Last week in this space I wrote about how companies like Apple, Nike, and architecture firm Foster + Partners are designing face shields that can be used to protect doctors, nurses and first responders against the coronavirus.
A few readers wrote to ask why I didn’t mention Ford Motor, whose pivot to producing face shields and ventilators Fortune’s Maria Aspan expertly chronicled in our latest magazine issue.
I should have. In under a week, a freshly-assembled task force designed, produced and delivered an innovative face shield made of less than a dozen parts—many of which are sourced from materials Ford already has in abundance.
The speed of Ford’s business pivot from manufacturing autos to face shields would be remarkable even by the standards of Silicon Valley startups—and offers a case study in how design thinking can help old-line industrial giants react nimbly to unexpected challenges.
Most of Ford is still shut down; the company hasn’t announced a time frame for resuming auto production. Yet a group of about 700 workers using little automation and keeping six feet apart is turning out shields at a rate of 1.5 million per week at Troy Design and Manufacturing, a Ford subsidiary in Plymouth, Michigan.
The design for the shield is refined and made of simple parts: a transparent plastic sheet widely available from Ford suppliers in giant rolls, a strip of foam with some sticky tape on the back, and an elastic band that can be stapled to either corner of the shield. Ford says the effort, code-named Project Apollo, will produce its 10 millionth shield this week.
The automaker has donated the face shields to hospitals, medical facilities, local police and fire departments in all 50 states, Puerto Rico and Guam. It has supplied shields to the federal and state governments, as well as the military, for the cost of materials and shipping.
The project has required collaboration at all levels of the company, including from the United Auto Workers union whose members, working as paid hourly volunteers, make up about half the force producing shields at the Plymouth plant. But the initiative was set in motion by a small cadre of designers at D-Ford, the carmaker’s human-centered design shop.
Using the methods of designers to think about business in a new way has been a signature initiative of Ford CEO Jim Hackett, who has led the company since 2017. In a recent profile in The Atlantic, former Fortune editor Jerry Useem explained what makes Hackett’s management ethos so different:
“At present, the question hovering over the car industry is basically whether high-tech entrants such as Tesla and Google can learn crankshafts and drivetrains faster than Ford, GM, and other carmakers can learn software and algorithms.
“But Hackett reflects Ford’s bet that the winner won’t be the best chassis maker or software maker, but the company that nails the interaction between man and machine.”
That bet is still open. After production lines lurch back into motion, Ford must navigate a weakened, unpredictable economy sure to put Hackett’s design-led approach to the test. But the company’s swift pivot to making face shields suggests that, at a time of maximal uncertainty, Ford’s focus on user experience may have improved its odds.
Clay Chandler
clay.chandler@fortune.com
NEWS BY DESIGN
Dyson/Reuters
Breathe. Dyson has decided the ventilator it designed for the U.K. government is no longer needed. That's good news. Reportedly, the demand isn't there. Recent reports show doctors have seen positive results with non-invasive alternatives to ventilators, such as delivering oxygen through a nasal tube. Dyson says it is investigating whether the excess units could be exported to other countries in need of the breathing machines.
Be prepared. Should governments prepare for pandemics the way they do for war? That would mean stockpiling medical equipment, ensuring supply lines are secure, and deploying billions in government funding for R&D on products that will hopefully never be used.
Don’t fraternize. The World Economic Forum looked at ten ways work and workplaces might be different post-pandemic. Introverts rejoice: the open office might finally be done for and, maybe, so will the office altogether.
Join the party. Facebook launched Messenger Rooms last week—the company’s answer to Zoom and Houseparty. The latecomer seeks to distinguish itself by imbuing the video chat platform with a sense of spontaneity. Users can create a “room” where others can drop in and out when they like.
Up your game. U.S. rapper Travis Scott teamed up with Fortnite to put on a virtual “tour” throughout the massive multiplayer game over the weekend, drawing over 12 million participants. The performance wasn’t really live but, impressively, the psychedelic visuals were all developed at home, as Epic Games developers shelter in place.
Flight of fancy. Aviointeriors—a design firm famous for creating a "standing seat" that could cram more passengers onto planes—is now pitching how to keep passengers apart, as airlines prepare for a post-pandemic world. But will sneeze guards be enough to save the budget airline industry?
EVENTS BY DESIGN
April: OpenIDEO and Fortune’s COVID-19 Business Pivot Challenge is seeking submissions through the end of the month. The last call for entrants is April 30.
June: The month-long London Festival of Architecture is running a stripped-back event online this year, with the core public program moved to (hopefully) later this year. The San Francisco Design Week, which starts June 16, has gone digital too.
Ongoing: Virtual Design Festival, a collaborative effort from Dezeen, Dutch Design Week and Design Indaba continues to exhibit work from a global roster of designers; the Serpentine Gallery has taken Cao Fei’s Blueprints exhibition online
QUOTED BY DESIGN
“As amazing as videoconferencing technology has become, students face financial, practical and psychological barriers as they try to learn remotely….Colleges and universities must be able to safely handle the possibility of infection on campus while maintaining the continuity of their core academic functions.”
Christina Paxson, president of Brown University, lays out the need for universities to reopen in the fall, knowing that the pandemic might still be raging. Remote learning, Paxon says, has limitations—especially for less privileged students—but campuses are hotbeds for infection. Test, trace, and separate is Paxson's answer.


fortune--2020-04-28--The coronavirus pandemic is impacting critical research into neuromuscular diseases

Leeann Fortenberry was driving when she got the call one day in 2013.
A doctor from Fort Worth was on the other end of the line and asked what she was doing. She needed to pull over to the side of the road, he told her. Fortenberry’s infant daughter, Faith, had been diagnosed with a form of spinal muscular atrophy (SMA), a rare genetic neuromuscular disease that wastes away its victims’ muscles.
This was her biggest fear. At 18 months old, Faith had shown signs that something was wrong. She was beginning to learn how to speak and yet had still not been able to stand. That led to a doctor’s consultation where professionals told her they just hoped it wasn’t SMA. A blood test had now dashed those hopes.
Fortenberry immediately began asking the questions any parent would with such distressing news: Would Faith ever walk? Would she even live?
The doctor said he didn’t know.
“I just sat and cried on the side of the road for an hour,” she says.
Faith is now 8 years old. While her mobility is limited, Biogen’s SMA treatment Spinraza, which became the first approved SMA drug in the U.S. in 2016, has helped. But the pandemic has added new challenges to her and her mother’s lives—as well as the lives of thousands of American families grappling with similar diseases.
Leeann and Faith Fortenberry at the 2018 Ride for Strength in Milwaukee. Courtesy of MDA/The Fortenberry Family
SMA is one of a group of neuromuscular diseases that includes Duchenne muscular dystrophy and amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS), or Lou Gehrig’s disease, among others.
The COVID-19 crisis presents potent challenges for patients with such conditions: posing an even greater danger to their health, disrupting the development of new drugs, and putting an added burden on caregivers.
“This population is among the highest risk for COVID,” says Lynn Vos, president and CEO of the Muscular Dystrophy Association (MDA). Such diseases can affect all muscles, including the diaphragm, which supports the lungs, making it difficult to breathe. A deadly respiratory illness on top of that is an existential threat.
“COVID would kill them,” she says.
Should a patient need emergency ventilation for their own underlying condition, the emergency room is about the last place they can turn to right now, owing to the risk of contracting the coronavirus, Vos adds.
SMA, ALS, and various types of muscular dystrophies collectively afflict about 275,000 people in the U.S. Depending on which condition—and which form of the disease—a patient has, they can die anywhere from early childhood to young adulthood.
The MDA, a nonprofit, is the largest funder of research into drug development and care for neuromuscular disease patients outside of the federal government, committing more than $1 billion to the discovery of new treatments over the course of more than 70 years, according to the organization.
That research has been a major challenge amid the pandemic.
“We’re having a lot of consternation on the research side,” says Sharon Hesterlee, a 20-year veteran of the biopharmaceutical industry who now serves as the MDA’s chief research officer. “Many [clinical trials] are on hold. Having these people come into a hospital for a clinical trial, unless it’s an emergency or intervention, you really can’t justify it right now.”
That’s a tough lift for organizations in the midst of conducting neuromuscular disease trials. Some may now have incomplete data when submitting an experimental therapy to the Food and Drug Administration for approval. Regulatory submissions could very well be delayed.
This isn’t an issue limited to rare disorders. The FDA has already been pushing for virtual clinical trials for a number of conditions in the face of the coronavirus crisis. It does, however, hit the neuromuscular disease community particularly hard given how difficult it can be to care for such patients—which makes the quest for new treatments so important.
But Hesterlee says that in the face of adversity, the MDA’s grantees are getting creative.
One key metric used to see whether or not a treatment for neuromuscular diseases is working is a six-minute walk test. A patient is asked to walk as far as possible in six minutes. Since these kinds of tests can’t be conducted in the clinic right now, some groups have begun sending two-way cameras to the homes of study participants and their caregivers. They then observe and record the test, which a patient can do from the safety of their own homes.
“You’d never do this in normal circumstances, but these clearly are not normal circumstances,” says Hesterlee, who’s heard from at least two unrelated patient groups that have switched to this method.
Earlier this month, the MDA formed a new medical advisory team to issue guidance on various topics that impact research and care for neuromuscular disease patients. Dr. Barry Byrne, now the MDA’s chief medical adviser, co-held a Facebook Live event with MDA chief advocacy officer Kristin Stephenson on April 2 regarding best practices during the coronavirus crisis. The turnout was stunning.
“All 150 of the care center directors in our MDA network came to the meeting virtually for several hours,” Byrne says.
The innovation driving this tight-knit community in a difficult time is striking. But coming up with new trial techniques and holding virtual town halls can only do so much—especially when it comes to the mental health of patients and their caregivers.
Even in normal circumstances, a child with Duchenne, for instance, may have to be physically turned over by their caregivers in their beds to prevent further muscle damage or bedsores since they likely can’t do so by themselves.
For Fortenberry, a schoolteacher who now has to teach her own classes as well as Faith, the pandemic has been a thief in the night, robbing mother and daughter of the chance to go outside and interact with others. That hits hard for patients and caregivers who typically are more isolated and less mobile to begin with.
Arriving at camp on Faith’s eighth birthday, Aug. 4, 2019. Courtesy of MDA/The Fortenberry Family
“Most of our SMA friends tend to shut down and not leave their homes during flu season. We’ve never been like that. Faith and I are very social,” Fortenberry says.
She recalls a recent day when she and Faith did the closest thing they could to going outside: “We just sat in the garage and waved at every human that passed. We just want to be around folks again.”
One big regret is that Faith won’t be able to attend the summer camp set up by the MDA this year—one of her favorite activities. But, ever the happy warrior, Fortenberry says she’s still grateful for the virtual camp MDA is setting up instead.
“I’m just glad that she’ll get to see her friends again,” says Fortenberry.
More coronavirus coverage from Fortune:
—Bill Gates explains how to beat the coronavirus pandemic
—The U.S. is learning why limiting hospital beds carries a steep cost
—Instacart to hire 250,000 more workers amid soaring demand
—What to know if your small business is applying for Round 2 PPP loans from the SBA
—14% of women considered quitting their jobs because of the coronavirus pandemic
—The 3-pronged approach to defeating the coronavirus
—Why the coronavirus crisis makes moral leadership more important than ever
—PODCAST: COVID-19 might have upended the concept of the best companies of the year
—VIDEO: 401(k) withdrawal penalties waived for anyone hurt by COVID-19
Subscribe to Outbreak, a daily roundup of stories on the coronavirus pandemic and its impact on global business, delivered free to your inbox.


fortune--2020-04-28--Q&A: Lawrence Wright on his new pandemic novel ‘The End of October’ and what we can learn from the c

Q&A: Lawrence Wright on his new pandemic novel ‘The End of October’ and what we can learn from the coronavirus

Lawrence Wright has already written 10 nonfiction books, including the deep insider look at Scientology, Going Clear: Scientology, Hollywood, and the Prison of Belief, and The Looming Tower: Al-Qaeda and the Road to 9/11. So it’s no surprise that that The New Yorker staff writer would follow that up with a captivating narrative about a mysterious new deadly virus sweeping the planet.
Except this time, the book is a work of fiction.
If it had been released this time last year‚ or even just a few months ago, the riveting thriller The End of October (Knopf) would have been interesting for anyone looking for an escapist page-turner. (Although given the subject matter, maybe not the best travel read.)
Yet in the age of the coronavirus, it is no longer escapist. But it’s still a gripping tale. Readers might find themselves holding out for a real-world hero like Dr. Henry Parsons (think Robert Langdon, but working for the World Health Organization and without any of the womanizing), who races around the globe to track down a novel strain of influenza as it spreads like wildfire and threatens to bring the planet to a standstill. (Sound familiar?)
Fortune recently spoke with Wright about the inspiration for his latest work, what the research process was like, and his reaction to just how frighteningly prescient it has turned out before it publishes today. (And as many authors publishing books this spring have encountered, the launch has been retooled as bookstores across the country remain closed to guests. So the book launch event has been moved online via Zoom and EventBrite.)
The following (spoiler-free) interview has been lightly edited and condensed for clarity.
“The End of October” follows a mysterious, acute, and highly contagious disease as it spreads worldwide, dismantling institutions and decimating the population in its wake. Courtesy of Knopf
Fortune: Without giving anything away, given how many recent, actual geopolitical and public health events are referenced within the book, the plot takes place as close to present day as possible—making the similarities to real-world events (we’ll get to that) all the more ghostly. So I have to ask, when did you start writing this book? What inspired it?
Wright: This book actually started off as a screenplay for Ridley Scott a decade ago. At the time, I hadn’t solved the story, and to be honest, I hadn’t done enough research. Still, the idea of a massive pandemic haunted me, and in 2017, I decided to write it as a novel. This time, however, I plunged into the research in earnest, just as I would with a nonfiction book or a New Yorker story. By learning from experts who had devoted their careers to studying exotic diseases, I let the story take a more natural course.
For people reading this during the current news cycle, the language surrounding influenza strains and vaccines isn’t as foreign as it might have once seemed. What was your research process like? What kind of access, if any, did you get to experts at the WHO and government agencies?
I was fortunate to talk to some of the great figures in medical science. Ian Lipkin, director of the Center for Infection and Immunity at Columbia University, was one of my first calls, and he allowed me into his lab and lent one of his assistants to teach me how viruses are sequenced. Philip Dormitzer, the chief scientific officer of viral vaccines at Pfizer, taught me about vaccine development. Dr. Barney Graham, a viral immunologist and vaccine expert at NIH in Bethesda, helped me solve some of the medical puzzles I set for myself in the novel. Jens Kuhn, at the NIH/NIAID/Integrated Research Facility at Fort Detrick, took me through his lab and instructed me on not only the science but also the moral quandaries researchers face in animal experimentation.
Because animals play a strong role in the novel, I also consulted with veterinary scientists, including Jamie Lee Barnabei at the National Veterinary Services Laboratories in Ames, Iowa; Sally Ann Iverson, a veterinary epidemiologist in Arizona; and Emily Lankau, a veterinary epidemiologist at the Ronin Institute. I feel embarrassed that I’ve slighted others who contributed their time and insight. These people are on the front lines of the struggle against COVID-19 right now.
Now that it’s not possible to ignore the elephant in the room any longer, when did you first take notice of COVID-19? When did you realize that it might balloon into not just an epidemic, but a global pandemic?
When the Chinese announced the presence of the virus, on New Year’s Eve, 2019, I immediately thought of SARS, which also started in China, in 2002. The fact that it was contained within 100 days was perhaps the greatest triumph of public health. Had it been the pandemic that COVID-19 is, the world would be facing a far more dangerous enemy.
So, near the end of January I had decided that it was time to order masks and gloves and start stocking up on canned goods. We planted lettuce. I wish I had sold more of my stocks.
Avoiding spoilers as much as possible, when news about the novel flu in the book reaches top ranks at the Department of Homeland Security, the young Health and Human Services lieutenant stresses to convey the severity of the situation, baffling her elders in the conference room.
A few months ago, readers might have been hard-pressed to be convinced as well, but the scenario she outlined—from total economic shutdowns to how long it takes to produce a successful vaccine—is exactly what is playing out in real life for us now. With that in mind, what has been your reaction to how the past few weeks have unfolded?
Dismay. If I can fault myself as a prophet, I would say that, in general, people have behaved better in real life than I gave them credit for, but governments have performed as expected, or worse.
Lawrence Wright, author of “The End of October.” Courtesy of Kenny Braun
While your previous books have been rooted in journalism, it needs to be reiterated that The End of October is a work of fiction. And while some of the aforementioned plot points (and others that will not be described here but saved for the reader) are startlingly similar to the coronavirus pandemic, the trajectory and severity of the actual disease are different.
But given the anxious climate right now, readers are undoubtedly going to be looking for some kind of answers, or even hope, by reaching the end of the book. What do you hope readers take away from this book, and quite frankly, are there any words of comfort you can impart to them?
I hope that readers will come away from the book with a better knowledge of the threat that viruses pose, but more than that, I want to convey my respect for the scientists who have devoted their careers—often at great personal danger—to understanding the cunning devices that nature presents us with in the form of disease.
This pandemic will leave a scar on history. The death toll hasn’t been totaled yet. The economy is still in a coma. It will be years before we truly assess the damage.
But moments like this offer the opportunity for a civilizational reset. Some of the great epidemics of the past, like the Plague of Athens, led to years of chaos and tumult. On the other hand, the Black Death, which killed a third of Europe in the 14th century, closed the door on the Middle Ages and led to the Renaissance. When societies are under great stress, they reveal their strengths and weaknesses. I think we all appreciate the need to respect science, demand a responsible and compassionate government, subdue partisanship, and put to rest the global antagonisms that have weakened democracy and keep us constantly on the threshold of needless conflict.
Recognizing those facts, of course, is not enough. We have to make the changes that will fortify our society. Whether we will do that is yet to be seen, but we certainly can if we determine that it must be done. In that case, this terrible disease will have given us a gift.
More must-read lifestyle coverage from Fortune:
—The coronavirus puts the craft beer industry at risk
—Georgia’s staple cheesy bread is more than Instagram bait. It’s an economic indicator
—These dry ciders are made like wine and packaged like beer
—Listen to Leadership Next, a Fortune podcast examining the evolving role of CEO
—File your taxes, get a free case of Natty Light
—WATCH: Can San Francisco Be Saved?
Follow Fortune on Flipboard to stay up-to-date on the latest news and analysis.


fortune--2020-04-28--How CEOs outside the health care industry decided to get in on the fight against the coronavirus

During World War II, American industry mobilized to support the military. Now, in the midst of the coronavirus pandemic, American industry is stepping up to support the battle against COVID-19. Companies both large and small have shifted gears to produce needed supplies, fill gaps in the supply chain, and offer their expertise to bolster public health efforts.
In this week’s episode of “Leadership Next,” Fortune CEO Alan Murray’s podcast on the changing rules of business leadership, Murray and senior editor Ellen McGirt interview two chief executives on how their companies are adjusting in an effort to beat the coronavirus. KR Sridhar, CEO of Bloom Energy, and Jane Mosbacher Morris, founder and CEO of To the Market, discussed their businesses’ approach to this crisis.
“Even though these are terrible times, I can’t help but feel we are in the middle of a global master class in crisis innovation,” McGirt said. “People are conjuring up new solutions to help the world with the capabilities they already have.”
Bloom Energy, a clean-energy company based in San Jose, is what Sridhar calls “a mission driven company,” making it a no-brainer to deploy some of its employees to tackle pain points caused by the coronavirus crisis. Namely, Bloom employees are working to refurbish ventilators that have been stockpiled in state supplies.
The company is classified as an essential service, so as it continues to manufacture fuel cells, employees are taking on this ventilator work as an addition. At the time of this interview, Bloom had refurbished 1,200 ventilators, but it is capable of refurbishing around 2,000 per week in its East and West Coast facilities.
“The good news is we don’t need it right now because we are flattening the curve,” Sridhar said.
Around the nine-minute mark, Sridhar explains that refurbishing the ventilators wasn’t enough for the Bloom team. They wanted to improve the design of ventilators. Bloom employees worked with Stanford Medical School to create a device that allows one ventilator to be shared among multiple patients. The invention is now waiting for emergency authorization from the Food and Drug Administration.
When asked what all of this work is costing the company, the Bloom CEO said he’s not in the ventilator business and doesn’t care to be, so he is not prioritizing profit.
“If we cannot be there for people at a time of need like this, why would we want to be here?” he asked.
Mosbacher Morris agrees with Sridhar’s sentiment, telling McGirt that her company got involved in coordinating the production of much-needed personal protective equipment (PPE) “because we thought it was the right thing to do.”
To the Market is a company that works to disrupt the traditional supply chain, elevating women-owned, sustainable makers rather than factories with “challenging social and environmental footprints.” It works with hundreds of makers from over 20 countries to “power an ethical supply chain.”
Usually, the company focuses on apparel, accessories, and home goods, but in the face of COVID-19, To the Market pivoted to PPE to fill the shortages hospitals are experiencing globally.
The company has received orders for over 2 million units of PPE, and at the time of the interview, it had fulfilled 1.1 million of those.
“I thought we almost had an obligation to try because we have this expertise and because we have a syndicated supply chain,” Mosbacher Morris said. “It felt like a tremendous opportunity for us to add value, and I felt like our team was equipped and ready to do it.”
Our mission to help you navigate the new normal is fueled by subscribers. To enjoy unlimited access to our journalism, subscribe today.
More coronavirus coverage from Fortune:
—Bill Gates explains how to beat the coronavirus pandemic
—The U.S. is learning why limiting hospital beds carries a steep cost
—Instacart to hire 250,000 more workers amid soaring demand
—What to know if your small business is applying for Round 2 PPP loans from the SBA
—14% of women considered quitting their jobs because of the coronavirus pandemic
—The 3-pronged approach to defeating the coronavirus
—Why the coronavirus crisis makes moral leadership more important than ever
—PODCAST: COVID-19 might have upended the concept of the best companies of the year
—VIDEO: 401(k) withdrawal penalties waived for anyone hurt by COVID-19
Subscribe to Outbreak, a daily newsletter roundup of stories on the coronavirus pandemic and its impact on global business. It’s free to get it in your inbox.


fortune--2020-04-29--British Airways parent warns of drop in passengers for ‘several years’ as it switches from furloughs

British Airways parent warns of drop in passengers for ‘several years’ as it switches from furloughs to layoffs

IAG SA will slash the work force at its flagship British Airways by almost 30% in a painful restructuring aimed at shrinking the airline group for a downturn that could last for years.
IAG shares fell as much as 6% Wednesday, after the airline group said that as many as 12,000 jobs will be lost at the U.K.’s former state-owned airline.
A 1.3 billion-euro ($1.4 billion) charge from fuel and currency hedges added to the group’s first-quarter operating loss, according to a statement late Tuesday. With its planes on the ground, IAG said operating results are likely to be “significantly worse” in the current period because the virus has pushed down demand.
The harsh steps are likely to be repeated by other airlines in days and weeks to come, after flight restrictions aimed at fighting the coronavirus threw the industry into its steepest downturn ever. Carriers are in desperate need of cash, with peers such as Air France-KLM and Deutsche Lufthansa AG chasing multibillion-euro bailouts. IAG has so far avoided tapping government-supported fundraising plans.
“In the last few weeks, the outlook for the aviation industry has worsened further and we must take action now,” British Airways Chief Executive Officer Alex Cruz said in a letter to employees. “Any money we borrow now will only be short-term and will not address the longer-term challenges we will face.”
Planemaker Airbus SE said Wednesday it burned through 8 billion euros in cash in the first quarter, and said it would have a better grasp on the the scale of the crisis by June. Boeing Co. will report results later Wednesday.
British Airways now leads a stable that includes Spanish flag carrier Iberia, Ireland’s Aer Lingus and discount brands Vueling and Level. Like other European carriers, the company was hit with a double-whammy from fuel-hedging contracts that failed to protect the company against a sudden drop in oil prices.
European airlines typically hedge most of their fuel costs to protect against a sudden jump in one of their biggest expenses. But because of the way some of the contracts are structured, the unexpected drop has forced many of them to hand cash over to banks even as many ask governments for multibillion euro taxpayer bailouts.
Lufthansa and Ryanair Holdings Plc have already said they’ve lost money on hedging contracts, with more revelations expected with quarterly results.
IAG doesn’t expect passenger demand to recover to 2019 levels for “several years.” The company said its operating loss before exceptional items was 535 million euros in the period ended March 31.
Now its fleet is almost fully grounded, sapping revenue further. With cash and undrawn credit lines totaling 9.5 billion euros, the carrier is undertaking painful cuts to stretch its resources during the downturn. The carrier’s market value has plunged by about two-thirds this year, to 4 billion pounds ($5 billion).
The job cuts are also a blow for the U.K. government, which is paying part of the wages of furloughed workers in the hope of preventing a sharp spike in unemployment as the country remains in lockdown. Britain’s economy will contract by 7.6% this year, the biggest annual fall since 1921, according to Dan Hanson of Bloomberg Economics.
Labor Resistance
BA, which has already placed 22,626 workers on the furlough plan, will now start discussions with labor groups on permanent reductions. Pilots represented by Balpa said they were surprised by the move, especially since IAG said it was wealthy enough to weather the storm.
“Balpa does not accept that a case has been made for these job losses and we will be fighting to save every single one,” General Secretary Brian Strutton said in a statement.
The job cuts followed an announcement by SAS AB, Scandinavia’s biggest network airline, on Tuesday that it would eliminate as many as 5,000 jobs.
The Tuesday announcement left some questions unanswered, said Daniel Roeska, an analyst with Sanford C Bernstein—including the status of IAG’s planned takeover of Spain’s Air Europa.
“On balance, this should not come as a surprise but we would have preferred more color on what cost flexibility and cash burn the company expects during the shutdown in the upcoming weeks,” Roeska said in a note.
–With assistance from Christopher Jasper and Neil Callanan.
More coronavirus coverage from Fortune:
—What the law says about forcing employees back to the office
—Alphabet and Facebook earnings are expected to be bad. The question is how bad?
—How the U.S. should invest in public health before reopening the economy
—Tech issues and backlogs hit the SBA’s second round of PPP loans
—There may be 22 hidden coronavirus hotspots in states poised to lift restrictions
—Coronavirus brought China’s travel industry to a standstill. Now it’s showing signs of life
—The coronavirus pandemic is impacting critical research into neuromuscular diseases
—PODCAST: How 2 CEOs outside of health care decided to pivot to fight COVID-19
—WATCH: Fortune’s top 10 heroes of the coronavirus pandemic
Subscribe to Outbreak, a daily newsletter roundup of stories on the coronavirus pandemic and its impact on global business. It’s free to get it in your inbox.


fortune--2020-04-29--McKinsey has some chilling data on unemployment

British Airways parent warns of drop in passengers for ‘ several years ’ as it switches from furloughs to layoffs

This is the web version of CEO Daily. To get it delivered to your inbox, sign up here.
Good morning.
Some 57 million U.S. jobs could be at risk in the current economic crisis—roughly twice the number that have so far applied for unemployment insurance. That’s according to the McKinsey Global Institute, which is putting out a new report this afternoon on the pandemic. CEO Daily got an early look and was chilled by some of the findings. Among them:
– New jobs are quickly drying up. Consolidated data from job websites finds postings have declined by 1 million since February–a drop of 16%. New COVID-related jobs in healthcare and warehouses aren’t enough to offset sharp declines.
– Low wage, part-time, and minority workers are the most vulnerable. Three-quarters of all vulnerable workers earn less than $40,000 a year. Minorities make up 25% of the newly unemployed, even though they are just 20% of the work force.
– The virus may be killing older people, but job losses are hitting the young. Workers under the age of 35 account for almost half of the job losses.
– The education divide is widening. Workers without bachelor’s degrees are twice as likely to be vulnerable as those with degrees.
Interestingly, the institute finds significant overlap between the jobs at risk because of the pandemic, and those it had already found were at risk over the next decade due to automation.
“Workforce transitions we thought might take years have suddenly taken on new urgency,” said McKinsey’s Susan Lund. That ups the need for training and reskilling programs that “help the tens of millions of vulnerable workers not only get through today’s challenge, but also put themselves on a better footing for the future.”
More news below.
Alan Murray
@alansmurray
alan.murray@fortune.com
TOP NEWS
One million
The United States now has more than a million confirmed COVID-19 cases (roughly a third of the global total) and almost 60,000 deaths (nearly a third of which are in New York City). Meanwhile, many states—now including California—are moving towards relaxation of containment measures. In a new development yesterday, President Trump signed an executive order to keep meat-processing plants open. And Iowa is telling furloughed workers that if they refuse calls to return to work, they will lose their unemployment benefits. Wall Street Journal
Lufthansa dilemma
Lufthansa is, according to unions, considering filing for Chapter-11-style creditor protection in order to buy it time to restructure. The German airline group is in talks with the German, Belgian, Austrian and Swiss governments (it has subsidiaries in all those countries) over bailouts, but is reportedly getting bogged down in arguments over the conditions—cash is likely to come in the form of an equity stake. Financial Times
British Airways
Meanwhile, British Airways owner IAG has told unions in the U.K. that it could cut up to 12,000 jobs. BA CEO Alex Cruz: "In the last few weeks, the outlook for the aviation industry has worsened further and we must take action now…There is no government bailout standing by for BA and we cannot expect the taxpayer to offset salaries indefinitely... We will see some airlines go out of business." BBC
Airbus profits
Still on the what-is-air-travel-again theme, Airbus's quarterly profits have plunged by 49% in what it rightly calls the "gravest crisis the aerospace industry has ever known." CFO Dominik Asam is hoping for signs of a recovery in Q3, and "basically to a neutral situation where we don’t use cash anymore" in Q4. Reuters
AROUND THE WATER COOLER
European tourism
Europe's $2 trillion tourism industry is in dire straits, due not only to a lack of visitors from outside the continent, but also the chaotic re-imposition of national borders that have been effectively invisible for the last 35 years. European Tourism Association CEO Tom Jenkins: "We are in the unique position of there being no demand and no product. You could not devise anything worse." Fortune
Reopening guidelines
A host of great names from the Committee for Economic Development of the Conference Board write for Fortune that the reopening of the U.S. economy should follow five guidelines that include more federal leadership, an infection-rate benchmark for relaxing restrictions, and clearer guidelines for employers. Fortune
Oscars bend
The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences will, for this year only (it claims, tempting fate somewhat), allow films that did not appear in cinemas to be eligible for the Oscars. With cinemas closed, a lot of films are starting to come out on streaming services only. Ordinarily, Oscars contenders would have to have at least a seven-day run in Los Angeles theaters in order to qualify. Variety
Investment prospects
Executive editor Adam Lashinsky will be chatting over Zoom with longtime tech analyst Gene Munster about how he sees the investing environment playing out. The call is live on Wednesday, April 29, at 10:00 Pacific/1:00 Eastern. They'll take your questions via chat. (This call will be audio only: You have permission to multi-task.) Register here for free. Or, watch the live stream without registration here.
This edition of CEO Daily was edited by David Meyer.


fortune--2020-04-29--Google takes a shot at Zoom by offering free video conferencing

Following the explosive growth of Zoom, Google is offering its video conferencing service Meet free for anyone with a Gmail account.
Previously, the video conferencing service was only available to corporate customers who purchased accounts with G Suite, Google’s portfolio of cloud-based products like Gmail and Google Docs. Google Meet lets up to 100 people video chat, with features like live captioning, screen sharing, and controls for the host to mute or eject participants. The service runs on the web, and via apps on iOS and Android mobile devices.
“This is very much a continuation of the strategy we were already on, accelerated by a set of circumstances no one would’ve anticipated,” said Javier Soltero, vice president and general manager of G Suite.
The news comes as Google tries to refine its video conferencing strategy, which has been at times confusing between Google Hangouts, Google Hangouts Meet, Google Hangouts Chat, and now Google Meet. Eventually, all video conferencing will fall under the Google Meet umbrella.
It also comes just days after Facebook announced Messenger Rooms, a video conferencing service that lets up to 50 people chat. Meanwhile, Zoom has quickly become a major player in video conferencing, while also working to fix big security problems on its service, as the coronavirus pandemic pushes more people to work and socialize from home.
Google says Meet has grown by a factor of 30 since January and is adding 3 million users daily. Last week, the total number of daily participants surpassed 100 million, according to Google.
“This has been a product that has experienced incredible growth,” Soltero said. “But it only has been available to a specific audience.”
The idea is to expand that audience to include all groups and individuals who may need video conferencing. Eventually, Meet will be the default for consumers, who previously had access to video chat via Google Hangouts, which will be phased out over time. The move would put Google’s video conferencing tools into one brand—a departure from what Google has done over the last 10 years.
In 2010, Google introduced Google Hangouts, which was initially developed as a feature for the company’s social network, Google+. Then in 2017, Google split its video conferencing products in two: Rolling out Hangouts Meet for corporate customers and Hangouts Chat for consumers. Then earlier this month, the company announced that it was rebranding Hangouts Meet to Google Meet, likely in preparation for the larger release announced Wednesday.
For consumers, this means increasing the number of people who can chat at one time by 75 people as well as better audio and video, and access to what had previously been premium features. Consumers will be able to host video calls with no time limit until Sept. 30, at which point the limit will be an hour. For businesses and educational organizations, it means free access to video conferencing and G Suite tools, via a new package called G Suite Essentials, without a corporate account until Sept. 30.
Like Facebook, Google claims Google Meet will be secure, despite the two other companies Facebook and Google’s own former struggles with privacy. Because of its past history with corporations, Meet’s security has already been tested to a point.
Furthermore, uninvited guests on a call must be approved by the host before being allowed to participate. Additionally, all video meetings and recordings are encrypted, which helps prevent third parties from gaining access.
More must-read tech coverage from Fortune:
—Who is new AT&T CEO John Stankey?
—Work from home tips from the executive team that brought you Zoom
—Is A.I. better at diagnosing illnesses than doctors? Don’t believe all the hype
—Facebook debuts Zoom-like video chat feature called Messenger Rooms
—Listen to Leadership Next, a Fortune podcast examining the evolving role of CEO
—WATCH: Zoom’s ups and downs since the coronavirus crisis
Catch up with Data Sheet, Fortune’s daily digest on the business of tech.


fortune--2020-04-29--America’s growth streak is set to end. Nobody told traders

This is the web version of the Bull Sheet, Fortune’s no-BS daily newsletter on the markets. Sign up to receive it in your inbox here.
Good morning. Stocks and oil are trading higher as we await today’s big GDP numbers.
Let’s see where investors are putting their money.
Markets update
Asia
The major indices are mixed, with Hong Kong and Shanghai trading up. Tokyo is down.
and trading up. is down. Starbucks announced it’s opened most of its China stores, but sales are down there 25% .
. The Asia-facing bank Standard Chartered flagged nearly $1 billion in bad loans, but it’s bullish on China’s prospects for reopening the economy.
Europe
European bourses came out of the gates a bit higher. Germany’s DAX was up about 0.2% in the first half-hour of trading, before slumping a bit.
bourses came out of the gates a bit higher. was up about in the first half-hour of trading, before slumping a bit. To company news now . . . the carnage in aviation is truly historic. Today, IAG , the parent of British Airways , announced it would lay off 12,000 workers and warned that it will take “several years” before the business recovers. Bayer shares were trading down 4% this morning even after CEO Werner Baumann won overwhelming backing from shareholders to stay on and fight the mountain of Roundup lawsuits .
, the parent of , announced it would lay off and warned that it will take “several years” before the business recovers. shares were trading down this morning even after won overwhelming backing from shareholders to stay on and fight the mountain of . In something of a surprise, Fitch downgraded Italy to one level above junk. The spread against German bunds, a key indicator, remains somewhat stable.
U.S.
The Dow , S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures point to a solid open. But beware: yesterday’s rally faltered on lousy corporate results and gloomy coronavirus data.
, and futures point to a solid open. But beware: yesterday’s rally faltered on lousy corporate results and gloomy coronavirus data. The number of U.S. coronavirus cases topped 1 million yesterday. What’s worse, the number of Americans who’ve died of COVID-19 ( 58,365 ) has now exceeded the number of U.S. military deaths in the Vietnam War ( 58,220 ). So much for that prediction, back in February, that the number of cases would dip to virtually zero .
yesterday. What’s worse, the number of of COVID-19 ( ) has now exceeded the number of U.S. military deaths in the ( ). So much for that prediction, back in February, that the number of cases would dip to . Ford forecasts a quarterly loss of more than $5 billion —$2 billion above analysts estimates. It was down about 4% in after-hours trading.
—$2 billion above analysts estimates. It was down about in after-hours trading. Alphabet, Google’s parent , is up about 1% in after-market trade, as I type. It posted a revenue beat yesterday, but the worst is yet to come. “The second quarter will be a difficult one for our ad business,” CFO Ruth Porat said without elaborating. Fortune‘s Danielle Abril unpacks the results here.
, is up about in after-market trade, as I type. It posted yesterday, but the worst is yet to come. “The second quarter will be a difficult one for our ad business,” CFO Ruth Porat said without elaborating. Fortune‘s Danielle Abril unpacks the results here. Reminder: we’ll be covering the big GDP data announcement, due out one hour before the opening bell. Economists predict Q1 output fell 4% on an annualized rate, it’s biggest drop-off since 2009, and breaking a streak of 23 straight quarters of growth.
Elsewhere
Gold is down, as is the dollar .
is down, as is the . Crude continues to rebound. WTI futures were trading around $14/barrel, more than 30% above Tuesday’s lows. Brent too is higher, trading above 23 bucks per barrel. While that’s good news for oil traders, the volatility remains.
“Not out of the woods”
Even after yesterday’s losses, the S&P 500 has climbed nearly 30% from its 2,191.86 low. And, perhaps more importantly, it’s been fairly stable of late. The day-to-day ups and downs are fairly measured—far from those crazy spikes and plunges we saw at the end of March and early April.
Still, dark clouds are on the horizon.
So says bear-in-chief Jeffrey Gundlach, CEO of DoubleLine. The “bond king” went on CNBC on Monday to give an interview that’s still being dissected.
“I’m certainly in the camp that we are not out of the woods. I think a retest of the low is very plausible,” Gundlach told CNBC viewers. “I think we’d take out the low.”
He thinks investors are underestimating the significance of the 26 million-plus American layoffs reported in the last month. The oil markets portend deeper economic pain. And, he grumbles that the Fed, in its highly controversial move to buy junk debt, is propping up questionable assets such as the ETF, LQD.
And so, he said on Monday, he’s shorting the S&P at 2,863. Yesterday, the S&P closed at . . . yep, 2,863. “I think downside easily [points] to the lows or beyond,” he added.
Investors have so far largely shrugged off the parade of underwhelming corporate results and the jobs numbers. Up next is the GDP figures. But even those won’t tell the full picture as the bigger economic damage will be this quarter.
But a lot of market watchers are looking hard at that 2,863 number. It will be tested—possibly as soon as 8:30 a.m ET today.
Postscript
I’m long overdue with an update on the Canadian FX puzzle I floated here a few weeks back. To recap: my wife’s foundation got a funding commitment from a Canadian donor. But that posed a dilemma—they wondered: when’s the best time to convert the CAD to euros?
They were also looking for the most efficient, low-cost and timely way to bring the money to Italy before distributing to their development projects around the world.
Many of you suggested they open a CAD-denominated bank account. They followed your advice to a T, and now would like to thank the BS community for their expert advice.
She also gave me an update on where the money is going. They’ve drawn up a shortlist of projects across 35 countries, mostly in the global south. The focus of their work is on empowering girls, women and children who are affected by poverty, domestic violence, exploitation and trafficking migration, to name a few challenges. The funds will help re-start the many programs that have been impacted by the COVID-19 emergency.
Good Shepherd International Foundation in Sri Lanka. Photo courtesy of GSIF.
The pandemic is causing them to—to steal a word from business schools—pivot. Some of the small businesses will shift to the production of protective medical gear that can be distributed locally. There will also be COVID-19 education courses and a renewed push to promote small-scale and family farming, and build up the local food supply chain in many of the regions where their operations run. These projects are built by locals and managed locally, a development model that has a more pronounced effect on the ground.
To repeat, they’ve asked me to thank you for your advice.
***
Have a nice day, everyone. I’ll see you here tomorrow.
Bernhard Warner
@BernhardWarner
Bernhard.Warner@Fortune.com
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Today's reads
A Harvard prof takes on capitalism. In her new book, Harvard Business School professor Rebecca Henderson wants us to rethink everything we thought we knew about business. "It doesn't have to be quite so red in tooth and claw," Henderson tells Fortune’s Katherine Dunn. "It doesn't have to be quite so destructive." Before coronavirus, her ideas may have come across as a bit, you know, radical. Now people are nodding in agreement, Henderson says.
Vacation canceled. Annual holiday leave is sacred to Europeans. A minimum four weeks off is built into most contracts. A land blessed with Unesco World Heritage sites, cheap flights and open borders, Europe is a continent in motion much of the year—from the Greek islands to the Austrian Alps. Coronavirus is now crushing the European pastime of holidaymaking, not to mention Europe’s $2 trillion tourism industry, Fortune’s David Meyer reports.
Chicken little. In the great retelling of the COVID-19 pandemic, we’ll remember to include the detail of that day we ran out of a favorite food. For Americans, that day has come for boneless chicken, as meat-processing plants in North America. shut down. The upshot: for now, you’ll have to live with thighs and drumsticks. (A cooking tip from an Italian kitchen: A clove of garlic. A sprig of rosemary. Wrap the thighs in pancetta. Chop up cubes of potatoes. After 15 minutes, a dash of white wine. And another dash for the cook. Eccola! Dinner is saved.)
(Some of these stories require a subscription to access. There is a 50% discount for our loyal readers if you use this link to sign up. Thank you for supporting our journalism.)
Market candy
Quote of the day
These are impersonation scams by thieves seeking to steal bank account or other sensitive data.
That’s the IRS, which has had to issue fresh warnings about a spike in phishing scams aimed at stealing stimulus checks from Americans. According to Bolster, an online security firm, there has been a dramatic spike—to more than 150,000—in the number of websites trying to steal data or provide misinformation to consumers. Fortune provides some helpful tips on how to avoid being duped.
A reminder: We’ve got another webinar/q&a this week: Fortune executive editor Adam Lashinsky will chat today with tech analyst Gene Munster of Loup Ventures about how he sees the investing environment playing out in these crazy times.
Date and time: Wednesday, April 29, at 10:00 Pacific/1:00 Eastern. 30 minutes duration.
registration link: https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register/WN_09HTHFKxT-yqQPjrjkGvAg


fortune--2020-04-29--Boneless chicken is first to go scarce as coronavirus hits U.S. meat supply

Goodbye, boneless chicken.
Food retailers across North America are swapping boneless chicken legs for less popular thighs and drumsticks as a wave of shutdowns at meatpacking plants has reduced supplies of sought-after cuts.
Covid-19 infections among workers at some of the largest meat processing plants in the U.S. and Canada have reduced slaughter capacity, and in some cases the types of cuts available. Outbreaks have shut down almost a third of U.S. pork capacity and the growing wave of disruptions has spurred plans by President Donald Trump to order meat-processing plants to remain open. In Canada, Cargill Inc. has idled its beef plant in High River, Alberta, which accounts for about 40% of Canada’s processing capacity while JBS SA’s beef plant in Brooks, Alberta, is running at about half capacity.
Quebec-based Goodfood Market Corp., which delivers meals on a subscription basis, said it will be substituting its regular boneless chicken for bone-in thighs, legs and drumsticks as the poultry industry shifts away from de-boning to ramp up production.
“Poultry suppliers are still facing labor shortages and many of them are operating with less than 50% of their regular workforce,” Goodfood Chief Executive Officer Jonathan Ferrari wrote in an email to customers. “To ensure the essential supply of chicken for Canadians across the country, the poultry industry as a whole is shifting away from de-boning chicken legs to increase their production capacity.”
Ferrari also wrote that the company is working to secure a frozen beef supply in case shutdowns at Alberta’s beef suppliers disrupt the supply chain.
New Meat Selection
Grocers generally are accepting cuts of meat that require more cutting by their in-house butchers to keep their meat counters as full as possible, said Michael Young, president of Canada Beef.
Meat such as sirloin and strip loins that would have typically been sent to restaurants before the pandemic shuttered businesses are now increasingly sold by retailers who are offering them in different sizes to get the price point down, he said. Companies are taking products that would have been used by the food service industry and redirecting it for retail sale. That means forgoing thin-cut meats that would require more time to process.
Grocers are also trying to find a way to sell so-called “end cuts” from the leg or trunk that consumers may be unfamiliar with. That includes promoting the idea of grilling marinated round steaks — from the leg of a cow — on the barbecue to make it more tender, Young said.
Larger Packages
Consumers in grocery stores around the world might notice larger packages of meat instead of individual steaks or smaller portions, said Brian Sikes, head of Cargill’s protein and salt businesses. While the company’s plants primarily produce the same products for retail and food-service, they might cut or package them slightly differently, he said.
“We know they’re buying cuts that they’ve never bought before,” Young said Wednesday by telephone.
Even in Europe, where supply disruptions have not been as severe, grocers are trying to get retail customers to eat cuts of meat that restaurants usually buy. In the U.K., there’s been an uptick in sales of steaks and other cuts of meat less popular with retail customers, according to Nick Allen, chief executive of the British Meat Processors’ Association. Big retailers have been putting these cuts on sale to encourage shoppers to buy, Allen said. A lot more ground meat is typically sold by comparison, which causes an imbalance.
“We’re just waiting to see if enough has changed to eat our way out of the problem,” Allen said.
Our mission to help you navigate the new normal is fueled by subscribers. To enjoy unlimited access to our journalism, subscribe today.
More coronavirus coverage from Fortune:
—What the law says about forcing employees back to the office
—Alphabet and Facebook earnings are expected to be bad. The question is how bad?
—How the U.S. should invest in public health before reopening the economy
—Tech issues and backlogs hit the SBA’s second round of PPP loans
—There may be 22 hidden coronavirus hotspots in states poised to lift restrictions
—Coronavirus brought China’s travel industry to a standstill. Now it’s showing signs of life
—The coronavirus pandemic is impacting critical research into neuromuscular diseases
—PODCAST: How 2 CEOs outside of health care decided to pivot to fight COVID-19
—WATCH: Fortune’s top 10 heroes of the coronavirus pandemic
Subscribe to Outbreak, a daily newsletter roundup of stories on the coronavirus pandemic and its impact on global business. It’s free to get it in your inbox.


fortune--2020-04-29--Facebook shares soar 10% despite impact of coronavirus on ad sales

Mayor London Breed gets along with her governor .
But her ‘ heart goes out to ’ city leaders who @ @ @

Facebook’s ad revenue slowed during the first quarter as marketers pulled back due to the coronavirus pandemic.
But the results on Wednesday were good enough to please investors, who sent the company’s shares soaring 10% in after-hours trading to $214.33. They chose to focus on the positives rather than the likelihood that sales will be even worse in the current quarter.
“The impact on our business has been significant,” Facebook’s CEO Mark Zuckerberg said during a call with investors on Wednesday. “I remain very concerned that this health emergency, and therefore the economic fallout, will last longer than people are anticipating.”
The social media giant reported that it had $17.7 billion in revenue during the first quarter, slightly beating analysts’ expectations of $17.4 billion. The result represented a 18% increase compared the same quarter last year, but it marked a major slowdown from the 26% gain at that time.
Meanwhile, Facebook’s profits doubled to $4.9 billion from last year’s first quarter. That gain was mostly due to Facebook paying a $3 billion settlement during the comparable quarter last year related to a privacy probe by the Federal Trade Commission.
The second quarter could prove to be even tougher for Facebook. The company reported that April’s ad sales had stabilized but were “approximately flat” compared to the same time last year. Additionally, Facebook’s $5 billion FTC fine and $5.7 billion investment in India’s largest mobile telecom provider, Jio Platforms, will be reflected in the second quarter.
“The fact that revenue was flat in the first three weeks of April indicates that Q2 will be a much more challenging quarter than Q1 was,” said Debra Aho Williamson, an analyst at marketing research firm eMarketer. “Businesses will open up at varying rates, making it incredibly difficult for a company like Facebook to get its ad sales momentum back.”
Ron Josey, an analyst at investment bank JMP Securities, was cautiously optimistic about Facebook’s comments about ad sales finally stabilizing after their decline.
“Frankly to hear that perhaps we saw the bottom and now we’re seeing things open up … I think it’s fair to think things should get better over time,” he said.
But Mark Shmulik, an analyst at brokerage firm AB Bernstein, added to the sense of uncertainty, saying: “If we believe part of this might be due to an immediate spike in e-commerce or stimulus checks, it’s hard to bank on that continuing. And who knows what the economy looks like in upcoming months.”
Yesterday, Google reported a similar slowdown and outlook, saying that its second quarter may be particularly “difficult.”
Though Facebook’s ad business is slowing during the pandemic, use of its family of apps, which includes Instagram, Messenger, and WhatsApp, is growing quickly because of the millions of people who are stuck at home because of shelter-in-place orders. Monthly active users on Facebook totaled 2.6 billion on March 31, up 10% compared to last year, when the use increased a more modest 8%. Meanwhile, monthly active users on its family of apps, a number Facebook started reporting in the fourth quarter, jumped 11% to the 3 billion, the first time it has achieved that milestone. That’s is an acceleration from the 9% gain in the fourth quarter.
Facebook’s non-ad revenue, which includes devices like Portal and Oculus, plus payment service fees, jumped 80% compared to a drop of 4% during the same time last year.
Meanwhile, Facebook says it’s working hard during the epidemic by increasing its policing of misinformation related to the virus, providing user surveys to help authorities track people who feel virus symptoms, and giving money to small and medium-sized businesses.
The crisis is also helping Facebook’s push into private messaging services and commerce, as people buy more products from home and communicate online. For example, following a 1,000% gain in video calling on Facebook in March, the company premiered a video conferencing service, Messenger Rooms.
And as many companies lay off workers during the pandemic, Facebook plans to continue hiring, Zuckerberg said. This year, the company will add at least 10,000 more workers in product and engineering, although it will slow hiring for business roles. Facebook ended the quarter with 48,000 employees, up 28% year over year.
“The right thing is to keep investing and building the future,” Zuckerberg said. “When the world changes, people have new needs.”
More must-read tech coverage from Fortune:
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—Is A.I. better at diagnosing illnesses than doctors? Don’t believe all the hype
—Facebook debuts Zoom-like video chat feature called Messenger Rooms
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fortune--2020-04-29--Mayor London Breed gets along with her governor. But her ‘heart goes out to’ city leaders who don’t

Photo essay : How the world has overcome pandemics over the last century

Mayor London Breed took decisive action to lock down San Francisco in February before the city had a single confirmed case of the coronavirus. But she says she was lucky to have the support of California’s governor—and that her “heart goes out to” peers like Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms who have sparred with state leadership.
“She is an incredible person and doing a great job despite the circumstances,” Breed said of Bottoms, who has questioned Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp’s decision to reopen nonessential businesses in the state. “We are fortunate to be in California, to have Gov. Gavin Newsom because he’s a San Franciscan.”
Breed joined Fortune‘s Most Powerful Women community via video chat on Wednesday to talk to female business leaders about navigating the crisis. Breed is sheltering in place at her own home while deciding the future of her city’s shelter-in-place orders; she joins Newsom and 12 other California city mayors for regular phone calls. “We expected the challenges that continue to exist with the federal government, but we are fortunate we are not in a similar situation as other cities,” she says of Republican-Democratic and city-state disagreements.
A self-avowed reluctant vegetable eater, Breed is getting her nutrition from a local juice shop and relaxing by taking walks and watching the Netflix series Tiger King. She shares those details for a reason; her own experience informs how she plans to eventually reopen the city. Could nonessential businesses, like local clothing boutiques, begin operating by adopting the pickup and delivery-only guidelines currently limited to establishments like Breed’s local juice shop? It’s all on the table—although Breed says she won’t do anything that risks “rolling back the gains we’ve made” because the coronavirus curve can “shoot up out of nowhere.”
Even though Breed’s early action—informed, she says, by public health professionals and the decisions of the Bay Area’s tech giants, who were immersed in the coronavirus crisis earlier through their offices outside the U.S.—is now widely seen as prescient, she understands that telling people not to leave their homes doesn’t make her the most beloved figure. “The mayor’s not always popular,” she says. “But I can’t let that consume me.”
More on the most powerful women in business from Fortune:
—How Global 500 companies are responding to the coronavirus
—14% of women considered quitting their jobs because of the coronavirus pandemic
—Why Mrs. America and the 1970s fight over the ERA are more relevant than ever
—Inside Lyft’s coronavirus response team
—Listen to Leadership Next, a Fortune podcast examining the evolving role of CEO
—WATCH: The double burdens that hold women back
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fortune--2020-04-29--New York’s attorney general calls for cutting cable fees tied to live sports programming

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New York’s top law enforcement officer asked the biggest cable and satellite television providers to cut or eliminate fees tied to live sports programming during the coronavirus pandemic, saying customers are being forced to pay for access to events that aren’t taking place.
The companies, including AT&T Inc. and Charter Communications Inc., should immediately propose plans to cut charges and provide financial relief to customers already financially strained by the crisis, New York Attorney General Letitia James said Wednesday in a statement.
“At a time when so many New Yorkers have lost their jobs and are struggling, it is grossly unfair that cable and satellite television providers would continue to charge fees for services they are not even providing,” James said.
In a letter she sent Tuesday, James asked the companies to look for ways to provide “appropriate refunds, discounts and reductions of charges and fees, payment deferrals, and waiver of termination fees, at least until live sports programming is resumed.”
AT&T and Charter didn’t immediately respond to requests for comment on the AG’s letter.
Shares of Altice USA and a batch of other cable and telecom industry stocks pared earlier gains after James’s calls for cuts.
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fortune--2020-04-29--Photo essay: How the world has overcome pandemics over the last century

The COVID-19 crisis certainly feels unprecedented, and in most ways it is. Never has the world faced a health crisis that has moved so quickly across continents, overwhelming complex health care systems, and putting entire economies on hold. But this isn’t the first pandemic the globe has faced, and it likely won’t be the last.
Together, humanity has stood on the precipice of many uncertainties caused by different unrelenting viruses. But no matter what the challenge—the Spanish flu in 1918, the flu pandemic in 1957, the HIV/AIDS crisis, West Nile, SARS, swine flu, Ebola—there has been a light at the other side and lessons to be learned.
These various pandemics all pose the same question: What has the past taught us that we can apply to future crises?
New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo, sitting in the epicenter of the U.S. crisis, has repeatedly used the podium of his daily press conferences to warn that this will not be the last time we see a contagion of this scale. He underscores the importance of looking to the past to find answers for the present and future.
We see in the photos below that masks and other personal protective equipment have been used to contain outbreaks for over a century, so why wasn’t the United States prepared with enough gear for doctors and nurses this time around? The images explain that despite advances in technology, medicine, and globalization, the way governments handle pandemics, the way the public reacts to them, and the panic and then acceptance of these temporary “new normals” that they bring about remain largely the same as always.
While many of the images show the power of community, we now know that social distancing works and that community can be felt from afar. It’s difficult to witness the large groups of Americans sitting together in Harlem in the 1950s waiting to be tested for the Asian flu, which killed 1.1 million people worldwide. The only way to prevent the spread of a highly contagious virus is to isolate people from one another, something we must learn from the quick spread of other illnesses.
Another lesson: Research and vaccinations work. Polio haunted Americans for four decades, causing the closure of movie theaters and swimming pools, with parents preventing their children from attending birthday parties and other social gatherings. By 1952 there were nearly 60,000 cases of polio in the United States and over 3,000 deaths. The disease caused fear across the country and world, and yet no cure appeared. And then Jonas Salk, a young scientist in his thirties, found a vaccine. The government moved to bend regulatory oversight to move the product quickly, and the plan was successful. Today, polio isn’t even a thought on most Americans’ minds.
Recovery came quickly and fear subsided, a lesson to be learned for those who worry that they’ll never be able to hug their loved ones again.
Scroll below to explore the history of pandemics through photographs.
Spanish Flu
The St. Louis Red Cross Motor Corps on duty with women holding stretchers at the backs of ambulances during the Spanish influenza epidemic in St. Louis, October 1918. Underwood Archives/Getty Images
Helpers from Red Cross headquarters deliver baskets with blankets and other supplies for the sick during the Spanish flu in Beverly, Mass., in 1918. Library of Congress
Polio
Iron lungs line up in all-out war on polio at the new Ranchos Los Amigos Respiratory Center after being rushed from the Los Angeles County Hospital in specially constructed ambulances, circa 1950. Bettmann/Getty Images
A child cries while getting a shot of the polio vaccine in New York, April 1954. The first polio vaccine, known as inactivated poliovirus vaccine (IPV) or Salk vaccine, was developed in the early 1950s by American physician Jonas Salk.
Asian Flu
Fearing they have the Asian flu, a group of people wait at Central Harlem District Health clinic in October 1957. According to the CDC, there were an estimated 1.1 million deaths worldwide and 116,000 deaths in the United States from the Asian flu. Bettmann/Getty images
AIDS
Marchers in New York City carry a banner in June 1983. The medical community, politicians, and support organizations have made incredible progress in the fight against this formerly unknown and heavily stigmatized virus. arbara Alper—Getty Images
Gary Walsch, who has AIDS, leans on a friend’s shoulder before the start of a candlelight vigil to bring awareness to the crisis in 1983. Steve Ringman—San Francisco Chronicle via Getty Images
West Nile
A truck sprays insecticide as part of New York’s efforts to control the mosquito-borne West Nile virus in Staten Island in July 2000. Chris Hondros—Newsmakers/Getty Images
Nick Leggio finds a dead blue jay in his New Orleans backyard and waits for the rodent control department to pick up the bird to test for the West Nile virus in August 2002. CHERYL GERBER—AP Images
SARS
Hong Kong politicians hand out free protective face masks to try to halt the spread of an atypical pneumonia, termed severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), in March 2003. Christian Keenan—Getty Images
Passengers arriving from Singapore are required to pass through a quarantine check at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport in Manila for possible cases of SARS. The illness spread to more than two dozen countries in North America, South America, Europe, and Asia before the SARS global outbreak of 2003 was contained. JAY DIRECTO—AFP/Getty Images
Swine Flu
A teacher in Mexico City welcomes students back to school after the swine flu crisis. Though the 2009 pandemic primarily affected children and young and middle-age adults, the impact of the H1N1 virus on the global population during the first year was less severe than that of previous pandemics. ALFREDO ESTRELLA—AFP/Getty Images
People wearing masks wait to get tested for H1N1 at a special ward in Kasturba Hospital in Mumbai in August 2009. Kunal Patil—Hindustan Times/Getty Images
Ebola
Members of the Red Cross of Guinea carry the body of a person who died from Ebola across a burial ground with many fresh graves in Guéckédou, Guinea, in October 2014. Kristin Palitza—picture alliance via Getty Images
An employee helps a colleague put on his ventilated plastic suit during a simulation exercise in August 2014 used to prepare for possible contact with Ebola patients. Boris Roessler—picture alliance/Getty Images
Coronavirus
Lori Spencer and her husband, Michael Spencer, visit outside the room at Life Care Center, a Seattle-area nursing home, where Lori’s mom, Judie Shape, 81, is staying. Lori says Judie tested positive for the coronavirus in March 2020. Jason Redmond—REUTERS
Doctors treat COVID-19 patients in an intensive care unit at the Istituto Clinico Casalpalocco during the coronavirus pandemic in Rome. Antonio Masiello—Getty Images
A worker in a protective suit writes on a cross to be placed on a grave after a funeral in Mexico during the COVID-19 pandemic. Omar Martínez—picture alliance/Getty Images
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fortune--2020-04-29--Lyft to cut or furlough 1,300 employees amid the coronavirus pandemic

Lyft plans to lay off nearly 1,000 employees and furlough another 300 because of the impact of the coronavirus on the ride-hailing business.
The layoffs and furloughs, announced Wednesday, represent 22% of Lyft’s workforce, which totaled 5,700 in December.
Additionally, Lyft will cut salaries over the next 12 weeks by 30% for top executives, 20% for vice presidents, and 10% for employees. Board members will forgo 30% of their cash compensation during the second quarter.
“It is now clear that the COVID-19 crisis is going to have broad-reaching implications for the economy, which impacts our business,” Lyft CEO Logan Green said in an emailed statement. “We have therefore made the difficult decision to reduce the size of our team. Our guiding principle for decision-making right now is to ensure we emerge from the crisis in the strongest possible position to achieve the company’s mission.”
Lyft’s layoffs come a day after a report from news site The Information said Uber is also considering job cuts that would affect up to 20% of its workforce. Both Uber and Lyft have suffered severe slowdowns of their ride-hailing businesses, as people stay home during the pandemic. It also comes just a few months after both companies, which have been reporting multimillion-dollar losses since going public, said they would become profitable, minus certain accounting expenses, by or in 2021—plans that most likely have been derailed by the virus.
Lyft’s stock was up 5% in midday trading on Wednesday to $34.45, signaling investor support for the cuts. Those layoffs are expected to cost up to $36 million during the second quarter, primarily for employee severance and benefits, according to a regulatory filing.
Lyft will report its earnings on May 6, and Uber on May 7, giving investors a better understanding of how much revenue declined for both companies due to the virus. Last month, Uber CEO Dara Khosrowshahi told investors that the company would survive the crisis, given its “strong” balance sheet and $10 billion in unrestricted cash. He also said that the company was “extensively” stress-testing its business model, and suggested that Uber would emerge from the crisis.
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—Who is new AT&T CEO John Stankey?
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fortune--2020-04-29--The Coronavirus Economy: An acrobat passes the time after his employer, Cirque du Soleil, shuts down

The Coronavirus Economy: An acrobat passes the time after his employer, Cirque du Soleil, shuts down all shows

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On March 14, Greg Pennes performed in his last Cirque du Soleil show—at least for the foreseeable future.
The following day, Cirque, the once fast-growing live entertainment powerhouse, issued a statement saying that it would temporarily suspend all Las Vegas–based shows including Mystère, O, and Michael Jackson ONE, the production Pennes had been a part of for the past five years. (Cirque had already announced that it would suspend its traveling shows owing to the escalating global spread of the COVID-19 pandemic.)
Since then, life has changed drastically for Paris-born Pennes, who joined Cirque as a trampoline acrobat and dancer in 2012. The 36-year-old gymnast is just one of many former Olympic athletes who is now out of a job. After shuttering its 44 Vegas-based and traveling shows, Cirque, reportedly the largest employer of ex-Olympians, temporarily let go of 95% of its staff. It’s not clear how long the layoffs will last, and whether some will end up being permanent. Even as Las Vegas Mayor Carolyn Goodman has pushed for hotels and casinos to reopen, no guidelines have been issued on how local businesses might do so safely. And it’s doubtful Cirque, with its reliance on large audiences, will be able to gather crowds under the big top anytime soon.
As Cirque—and the city of Las Vegas—scramble to figure out their future, Fortune caught up with Pennes to find out how he is navigating the current crisis for a new series, The Coronavirus Economy. The following Q&A has been condensed and lightly edited for clarity.
Cirque du Soleil acrobat Greg Pennes in 2018. Ginger Griep-Ruiz
Fortune: How did you become a gymnast, and why the trampoline?
Pennes: I was born and raised in Paris, and every year in my neighborhood there was an event showing different sports that you can practice. That’s where I first saw the trampoline. I started jumping at around age 7, and then my parents signed me up for competitions. This led me to the French National Team. I competed in the 2008 and 2012 Olympics, and then I was ready for my next chapter.
What led you to Cirque du Soleil?
I saw an old VHS tape of La Nouba, the show they did in Orlando, when I was around 15 or 16 years old. It was the first time I saw the trampoline being utilized as a performance apparatus, and I thought it was the coolest thing ever. Cirque works closely with the International Gymnastics Federation, and when I was ready to move on, I just contacted their casting department and told them so. I had to send a video reel of me doing flips and twists and acting. And then the process was similar to a regular job interview—I had to do calls and video interviews. They needed me to replace someone on the show Mystère, so I went straight to Las Vegas. [Normally, new performers are onboarded at Cirque’s headquarters in Montreal.]
Eventually, you became part of the cast of Michael Jackson ONE. Can you describe what your daily and weekly schedule used to look like?
I am mostly an acrobat, and the trampoline is my specialty. But I’m also a backup dancer for the show whenever they need me, and I back up for one of the main characters. The schedule is five days a week, two shows a night. That’s the bare minimum. And then we do trainings and rehearsals too, so maybe another 10 hours a week on top of the actual shows. But every week is different. The pace was pretty intense—as intense as when I was competing.
When did you first see signs that this current crisis could be bad for Cirque?
I still have family in France. We saw that they got hit pretty badly after China. I saw how it was hitting Europe and started to think that it will probably will come here at some point. Working in such a touristy place like Vegas, with people flying in from all over the world, I just figured it was a question of time. We always have weekly meetings, and they were telling us that the casinos were monitoring the situation. We had an update every week. And then, on March 14, it was our last show.
How did you take it? How did others take it?
Reactions were all over the place. Everyone is different. Right away, I decided to switch my mind and be in strong mode. This is the reality of what we’re living now. Let’s make the most of it instead of letting the virus win.
How have you been compensated?
The weeks before we closed they [Cirque management] gave us time to understand what would happen if the show would shut down. The biggest concern was about health benefits. They said Cirque was going to still take care of our benefits through June. They told us it would be a temporary layoff situation. Everybody did their own research about unemployment options.
Did you apply for unemployment?
Yes, I’m a resident, and I started receiving unemployment pretty quickly. My application went through quickly, but I have heard of others who had to go through phone calls. These are very individual situations.
Overall, how would you say that the current situation has impacted you financially?
We had some money on the side, but we adjusted our way of living a bit. We’re guaranteed [benefits] until June, and I’m sure we’ll hear from the company what will happen after June. We usually get an email or two a week. My partner was also employed by Cirque.
How are you filling your time now?
That’s the hardest part. Our rhythm and pace was pretty intense. Early on we set up a schedule—workouts and runs and any activities that are allowed in Nevada right now. Our days have been driven by workouts, schoolwork [Pennes’s partner has a young child], and dancing at home. That’s helped a lot. We keep the vibe going.
Have you been to the [Las Vegas] Strip since things shut down?
We took a drive recently, just to see what it looks like. You know, my friends back in France always thought Vegas is like a fake city. When you take the people out of it, it looks even more fake.
What do you hope will happen next?
Right now, I’m thinking Vegas needs to rise again. It would start first with hotels and casinos reopening before we [Cirque productions] can even think about coming back. I know that we aren’t essential. I think we can help a lot, but we’re not essential. I don’t expect anyone to say shows can open up first thing. Whenever this does happen, I foresee some adjustment of shows. Maybe one a night or less shows during the week? A ton of options are on the table.
Are you looking at other employment options? Or are you confident that you can go back to performing with Cirque?
For some reason I feel confident that I will go back to doing what I love. I think I will be back doing flips and twists and dancing onstage. I don’t know if there will be a room full of people or if it will be live-streamed. But I think people just need interaction, and we need live performance. It’s just a matter of time and regulation.
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