fortune--2020-03-07--Fear of coronavirus sends consumers into a grocery-hoarding frenzy

As an Arizonan, Gregory Cohen has never had to stock up ahead of a hurricane or other natural disaster.
But fear of the new coronavirus led the 51-year-old attorney to run up a hefty bill at the local grocery store last week on emergency supplies. That included 12 cans of diced tomatoes, 12 cans of chili beans, soap, and six boxes of pasta that he says should last him and his family four weeks.
“My biggest concern is that we will all be asked to stay at home,” said Cohen, who stored the supplies in tubs in his garage for his wife and teenage son. “This is my way of exerting control of the uncertainty of the current situation.”
COVID-19, the disease that has sickened more than 100,000 people worldwide and killed more than 3,400 people, has created legions of nervous hoarders who are loading up on canned goods, frozen dinners, toilet paper, and cleaning products. Many like Cohen want to be prepared as they hear warnings about quarantines and watch a growing number of companies like Twitter, Microsoft, and Amazon ask their employees to work from home.
Such stockpiling is expected to last for weeks, resulting in a boon for discounters and grocery stores as well as food delivery services that is also introducing logistical headaches at the same time. Costco Wholesale’s Chief Financial Officer Richard Galanti described the buying frenzy as “off the charts” throughout the U.S. in a call with investors this week. Some like Kroger, are now placing limits on certain items such as cold and flu-related products to five each per order.
Target and Walmart say they are talking to suppliers to replenish bare shelves, but didn’t say how long that could take. And New Jersey-based Campbell Soup said it’s stepping up production because of increased orders from grocery stores and other retailers as demand started growing this week.
Instacart reports a surge in demand for pantry items such as powdered milk and canned goods, as well as personal care products like hand sanitizer and vitamins. Sales are up tenfold across the country but business is particularly heavy in California, Washington, Oregon, and New York, where sales are up twenty-fold over the past week, the company said.
Meanwhile, sales of hand sanitizers in the U.S. more than doubled in the four weeks ending Feb. 29 compared to the same period a year ago, according to market research firm Nielsen, while sales of thermometers spiked 52.3% during that same period. Sales of dried beans spiked nearly 18%.
Online purchases of toilet paper have nearly doubled and non-perishable items like canned goods rose nearly 70% during the January and February period, according to Adobe Analytics.
Australian Chief Medical Officer Brendan Murphy, who is leading Australia’s response to the COVID-19 outbreak, on Thursday urged against stockpiling of toilet paper.
“There is no reason to denude the shelves of lavatory paper in the supermarkets,” Murphy said in a national televised press conference. “We should continue our normal activity.”
Italians engaged in panic buying in the first two days after officials in Lombardy and Veneto started to expand protective measures on Feb. 23—closing schools, theaters and museums—but it subsided quickly after an initial spurt.
Supermarkets from the heart of Milan to provincial towns in Veneto were cleared of the Italian staple, pasta, but also such items as flour and meat, with butcher cases emptying on consecutive days. In one suburban mall supermarket, a customer with a shopping cart piled high with bottled water was told it exceeded limits being put in place.
Bocconi economist Francesco Daveri said the hoarding pushed up sales at major supermarket chains in the double-digits.
Such hoarding resembles typical behavior in the days leading up to a hurricane or other natural disasters. Superstorm Sandy, the deadly hurricane that struck the Northeast in 2012, caused people to crowd stores to buy flashlights, batteries, and food.
But what’s different about the hoarding around the coronavirus is that it’s happening all across the country. Consumers are also dealing with an unknown threat and they have no idea when it will be over, consumer experts say.
“This is a big time of anxiety, and we know the biggest source of anxiety is uncertainty,” says Stewart Shankman, professor of psychiatry and behavioral sciences at Northwestern University. “People are trying to get a sense of control by buying things you really don’t need. It’s a false sense of control.”‘
Wendy Liebmann, founder and CEO of WSL Strategic Retail, described the behavior as “animalistic.”
“There’s is not much guidance other than washing your hands,” Liebmann said.
With many store shelves cleaned out of necessities, shoppers like Christopher Chan are frustrated.
The 32-year-old lives in the Capitol Hill area of Seattle, a popular neighborhood with hip bars and restaurants east of downtown. He said Wednesday that it took him a couple days this week to find toilet paper, and that Whole Foods and QFC grocers had been cleaned out.
“After sleuthing around, I violated my own privacy standards and went to Amazon Go, which had one pack left,” he said.
To Chan, the panic buying squares with warnings everyone has been hearing about possible quarantines and he noticed dry goods like beans and rice were scarce, as were hand sanitizer and bleach. He saw one woman at a Whole Foods grabbing as many travel-size bottles of hand sanitizer as she could.
There could be some buyers’ remorse if the coronavirus outbreak passes without forcing huge swaths of people to stay at home. That happened in 2011 after Hurricane Irene, which passed through the Northeast without inflicting much harm. The crowds who braved the long lines to buy batteries and canned goods then started to complain and demand refunds for all the stuff they bought.
Cohen said he’s not worried about the extra supplies of food, including frozen burritos.
‘’I got an 18-year old,” he said.
More must-read stories from Fortune:
—Testing for coronavirus should be free, but it’s not always that simple
—Coronavirus is mutating: Chinese scientists find second strain
—Coronavirus is giving China cover to expand its surveillance. What happens next?
—The coronavirus is officially claiming its first corporate casualties
—Why the U.S. is so far behind other countries in coronavirus testing
—Travel insurance is booming, even though it doesn’t help flight changes and cancellations
—Six states are still not testing for coronavirus
Subscribe to Fortune’s Outbreak newsletter for a daily roundup of stories on the coronavirus outbreak and its impact on global business.


fortune--2020-03-07--Global selloff continues as coronavirus batters markets

Stocks tumble again as Wall Street gets used to the new norm : volatility

This is the web version of the Bull Sheet, Fortune’s no-BS daily newsletter on the financial markets. Sign up to receive it in your inbox here.
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Good evening, Bull Sheeters. This is Fortune finance reporter Rey Mashayekhi, filling in one final time this week for Bernhard Warner.
Investors will be happy to see the end of the week, as the major exchanges took a pounding on Friday thanks to a coronavirus outbreak that has officially reached the ominous milestone of 100,000 infections around the world.
Markets update
In Asia—where markets mostly outperformed those in Europe and North America this week—things took a turn for the worse today. Tokyo’s Nikkei fell nearly 3%, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng dropped more than 2%. On mainland China, the major indices in Shanghai and Shenzhen all dipped around 1%.
Europe saw heavier losses, with London’s FTSE down nearly 4%, Frankfurt’s DAX losing more than 3%, and both Paris’s CAC 40 and the pan-European STOXX 600 each dropping around 4%.
In New York, any hopes that Friday’s impressive February job numbers (the U.S. economy added 273,000 jobs last month) or the passage of an $8.3 billion coronavirus aid package would stem Thursday’s losses fell by the wayside. The Dow Jones Industrial Average swooned at the opening bell and was down nearly 900 points at one point—but a late afternoon rally saved the day, and the index closed down only 257 points, or 1%. Likewise, late rallies for the Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 limited their losses to around 2%.
It’s been a wild two weeks on Wall Street, with last week’s double-digit correction followed by this week’s frantic oscillations. But while Friday afternoon’s rally helped limit the damage and bring the market virtually back to par for the week, you can see that it’s been a brutal stretch as fears over the coronavirus outbreak’s impact have escalated:
Meanwhile, the CBOE Volatility Index, better known as the VIX, continued to spike, indicating that the market believes there’s more volatility yet to come. And in a sign of how much investors are seeking solace in traditionally safer assets amid tumultuous equity markets, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note fell to unprecedented lows—dipping below 0.7% at one point.
Along those lines, gold prices climbed again, while the dollar slipped once more. Crude oil got hammered as Russia backed out of Saudi-led OPEC production cuts, which translated to a rough day for the S&P 500’s energy sector—the hardest-hit of the 11 industry sectors tracked by the index, with losses of 5.6% on the day.
If you’ve had enough of this topsy-turvy market for one week, I can’t blame you. With that in mind, let’s all take a breather and enjoy the weekend; you’ll be back in Bernhard Warner’s more-than-capable hands on Monday.
Rey Mashayekhi
@reym12
rey.mashayekhi@fortune.com
Today's reads
Time to buy the big banks? Financial stocks may have gotten hammered on Thursday, but Fortune's Shawn Tully writes that now may be the time to invest in the "marquee-name big banks." As Shawn notes, Bank of America, JPMorgan Chase, and Wells Fargo have shed a combined $143 billion in market capitalization since mid-December—but most big banks continue to be hugely profitable, and can now be bought at very attractive price-to-earnings ratios.
Divide and conquer. Speaking of the big banks: like many businesses, they're taking steps to safeguard themselves against the coronavirus outbreak. For some banks, that involves splitting their people up and moving them around; Business Insider reports that Bank of America is relocating a "select number" of its Manhattan-based trading staff to a back-up office in Stamford, Conn. That follows similar moves taken this week by Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan Chase.
Private parts. Steven A. Cohen may be one of America's most high-profile hedge funders, but he's now reportedly looking to try his hand at the private markets. According to the Wall Street Journal, Cohen is aiming to raise up to $900 million for a new, hybrid venture- and private-equity fund that would focus on backing early-stage technology firms focused on artificial intelligence.
Market candy
"You can’t open a closed factory with a rate cut. I don't think it's quite the right medicine for what’s ailing the global economic picture."
That's according to Charles Schwab chief global investment strategist Jeffrey Kleintop, who spoke with Fortune's Anne Sraders as she took a nervy market's pulse amid one of the most volatile weeks in recent memory. Despite that sentiment, many economists are predicting the Fed will cut interest rates further in the coming months; Barclays is forecasting two additional quarter-point cuts in March and April, "or even sooner."


fortune--2020-03-07--Coronavirus: Fewer than 6,000 samples have been tested in the U.S.

After the tornadoes , Nashville ’ s businesses reckon with loss and the future

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The U.S. has tested fewer than 6,000 samples from Americans suspected of the coronavirus infection, the top drug regulator acknowledged, as federal health officials struggled to explain the government’s difficulty creating a diagnostic tool to contain the disease.
Food and Drug Administration Commissioner Stephen Hahn said the federal government doesn’t know how many individual Americans have been tested for the infection. The number is less than the 5,861 specimens tested, because each patient requires from two and 20 tests to confirm a diagnosis, he said at a briefing for reporters at the White House on Saturday.
As cases multiply, the U.S. response is set to ramp up substantially, Hahn and Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar said. About 1.1 million tests have been shipped since last week and another 1 million are being prepared, Hahn said, allowing for more than 851,000 patients to be screened for the virus.
Aggressive containment of the virus and the “localized community mitigation effort” that’s under way, as well as keeping “as much of it off-shore as possible,” may leave the U.S. with more tests than it needs, Azar said.
“It may be that one has surplus capacity,“ he said.
There are 376 cases of the virus in the U.S., according to Johns Hopkins University, but experts say there are likely many more that have gone undiagnosed because of a severe lack of testing for the infection. A U.S.-developed test was plagued by problems for weeks, and has put health workers on the back foot in their efforts at containing known clusters of infections.
Hahn said 48 states now have labs able to test for the new coronavirus, including New York and California, which he said have everything they’ve asked for in terms of diagnostics. By comparison, South Korea has tested some 179,000 people for the virus since it spread from China in January, Azar said. Maine and West Virginia still lack local testing, he said.
CDC response time
Azar batted away questions about whether the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention was slower off the mark than health officials in other countries, saying it couldn’t “put out a test that’s not valid.” Officials don’t have a full picture of nationwide testing because commercial labs aren’t required to report their results to the federal government, a spokesman said.
The Trump administration has been criticized for choosing to develop its own test for the disease instead of adopting a German design distributed by the World Health Organization. Azar defended the approach.
“My understanding is that I believe Germany developed a recipe protocol for a test. The WHO took that and put that out and that’s what often been called, misleadingly, the WHO test,” Azar said at the briefing. “I believe they also got the CDC recipe and also put that out. It’s what we do. We develop these concurrently. CDC developed its test, I believe, within 14 days of getting the sequence.”
“Scale-up issue”
Azar said the U.S. experienced a “manufacturing scale-up issue” when CDC sought to distribute its test to state laboratories, leading to a delay in broader testing.
“It was never that the test itself was faulty, defective, unavailable,” he said. “It was always up and running at CDC, at all times, taking in any sample public health labs sent in.”
Once it designed the diagnostic, the CDC has never been unable to perform a test requested by a public health agency, Azar said.
While federal officials have said that the capacity to test hundreds of thousands of people is rolling out soon, there’s been a significant bottleneck in getting the tests distributed and up and running. For example, in New York City, where there are 11 diagnosed cases as of Saturday, fewer than 100 people had been tested as of noon Friday, according to a city website.
There are no drugs or vaccines known to be effective against the new coronavirus. Without widespread testing, health workers on the ground can’t identify new cases and isolate them—a key step in stopping new infections.
Hahn appointment
Trump named Hahn to lead the FDA last year. He took over from former commissioner Scott Gottlieb, who has been a regular presence on Twitter and television urging more testing for the virus, and warning that the situation in the U.S. may be more serious than some people realize. Hahn is part of the coronavirus task force set up by the administration to respond to the outbreak.
The FDA helps oversee not only the development of drugs and vaccines, but also medical diagnostic tests. On Feb. 29, the agency said it would let some organizations and companies developing their own tests start using them, without first seeking FDA approval.
For most people, symptoms of the virus appear akin to a cold or flu. For the elderly, or people with underlying health conditions, it can be far more dangerous, and in some cases deadly. An outbreak in Washington state centered around a nursing home has resulted in more than a dozen deaths so far.
More must-read stories from Fortune:
—Testing for coronavirus should be free, but it’s not always that simple
—Coronavirus is mutating: Chinese scientists find second strain
—Coronavirus is giving China cover to expand its surveillance. What happens next?
—The coronavirus is officially claiming its first corporate casualties
—Why the U.S. is so far behind other countries in coronavirus testing
—Travel insurance is booming, even though it doesn’t help flight changes and cancellations
Subscribe to Fortune’s Outbreak newsletter for a daily roundup of stories on the coronavirus outbreak and its impact on global business.


fortune--2020-03-07--After the tornadoes, Nashville’s businesses reckon with loss and the future

Coronavirus : Fewer than 6,000 samples have been tested in the U.S .

“We have a butcher, a baker, and a candlestick-maker,” said Leah Larabell, co-owner of High Garden Tea, an apothecary-style shop.
She’s not reciting a storybook rhyme. The East Nashville neighborhood where she and her husband Joel built and run their business really has that legendary trio of retailers as part of the business community that support its eclectic amalgam of residents, including many musicians and artists.
“As I go through my day, every single part of my day affects the East Nashville economy: going to the dry cleaner, getting meat at Porter Road Butcher, picking up wine at Weiss, and then going to a show at The Basement East,” adds Libby Callaway, an East Nashvillian and owner of The Callaway, a marketing and branding firm.
Larabell and Callaway were among those who awoke Tuesday morning to see that their community had been devastated by tornadoes. Four separate tornadoes hit Middle Tennessee around 1 a.m. on March 3, 2020, one of which stayed on the ground for more than 50 miles. The storms, which reached wind speeds of more than 175 m.p.h., battered the metro area, suburbs, and rural counties. Within the city, the neighborhoods hit hardest, like East Nashville, were those with concentrations of small businesses, from dry cleaners to boutiques to restaurants. At least 25 people lost their lives, with more than 400 homes and nearly 200 businesses destroyed, including the popular Basement East music venue Callaway frequents. The Weiss Liquor store is open, but lost the iconic neon sign that greeted Main Street visitors long before East Nashville had its creative cachet.
The building that houses Larabell’s business is now short several walls, its roof, and $180,000 in merchandise. Within hours of the storm, loyal customers started a GoFundMe campaign raising enough for the couple to be able to pay their 12 employees for at least two weeks while they regroup.
Nashville’s recent population growth has been well-documented; for parts of 2017 and 2018 more than 80 people moved to Music City every day. The city’s population increased from 569,000 in 2000 to 705,000 in 2020, with the greater Metro area now topping 1.75 million. But as the city has grown, the small town-nature of this neighborhood, which was hit by tornadoes in almost the exact same spot in both 1933 and 1998, has not dissipated. The losses of these businesses—whether temporary or permanent—have had both an emotional and an economic impact on its residents.
The Soda Parlor, another nearby business that suffered the wrath of the storms, was nationally known because of its owner, Olan Rogers, a YouTube comedian and the creator of TBS’s Final Space. Fans flocked for old-fashioned sundaes and custom merch, sure, but thanks to the free retro arcade games, it was somewhere local kids and parents regularly hung out after school.
As Nashville has grown and East Nashville real estate has skyrocketed, there has been hand-wringing about too many restaurants and too small of a labor pool. But as the neighborhood woke up to splintered power poles and insulation hanging from trees, it became clear that collaboration and charity trumped competition.
Hospitality is the city’s second-largest industry, by number of employees, and keeping those folks paid is essential to rebuilding, says Butch Spyridon, president and CEO, Nashville Convention & Visitors Corp.
Because Tennessee doesn’t have an income tax, the economy relies on sales tax. “It is more expensive here today than it was on Sunday,” he says of the loss of sales tax revenue.
Nashville native and Chef Jessica Benefield, owner of Two Ten Jack and The Green Pheasant, was lucky in that her restaurants were spared from the storms. She started a GoFundMe campaign with the intent of buying grocery gift cards for out-of-work chefs and waiters.
Countless restaurants offered assistance to business owners who, on a regular day, are competitors, offering to hire staff for a night or a week or a month, making shifts for extra sous chefs and servers, all the while making clear that there is no poaching going on in this tight labor market: Everyone will be welcomed to go back to their original jobs when restaurants re-open.
At other businesses, the owners literally made space, often for the competition. Some restaurants cleaned shelves in their walk-in coolers so that restaurants that lost power could store ingredients. Co-working spaces, including Collective615, a woman-only space across town and the Nashville Entrepreneur Center near downtown welcomed displaced entrepreneurs with a desk and an Internet connection. Boutiques, including Apple and Oak in East Nashville and Hey Rooster General Store in Hillsboro Village, welcomed other merchants to come sell their wares in their shops.
Mike Krajewski lost his personal-training gym, MK Fitness, and was flooded with offers of places where he could train his clients, many from gym-owners he has never met. Krajewski, who emigrated from Canada, thinks the high number of transplants in Nashville might contribute to the supportive business community. “This is a spot where we’ve chosen our family. We have chosen the people we want to be around.”
As cleanup crews work to remove debris, two neighborhood entities, CreativeMornings and Center 615, an East Nashville co-working space, teamed up to offer a less practical, but more poignant, help. They urged volunteers to drop off the sentimental, but not necessarily valuable, items found in the rubble for future re-uniting with tornado victims. Their lost-and-found bins feature photographs, stuffed animals, and handmade quilts. In true Nashville fashion, one of the first things found? A GRAMMY certificate.
More must-read stories from Fortune:
—H&M wants to help other fashion houses become sustainable—for a fee
—Target’s next frontier: Convenience stores and alcohol pickup
—Coronavirus is affecting everything, even Diet Coke
—How “for women, by women” Lola views its investor’s Trump ties
—How Home Depot turned itself into a Black Friday destination
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fortune--2020-03-07--Facebook bans ads for medical face masks amid coronavirus outbreak

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Facebook is temporarily banning advertisements for medical face masks as part of an effort to prevent use of its platform to exploit people’s concerns about the new coronavirus.
The ban covers advertisements on the social media platform as well as commercial listings on Facebook Marketplace, the company said. Facebook said it would begin to enforce the ban over the next few days.
“Our teams are monitoring the COVID-19 situation closely and will make necessary updates to our policies if we see people trying to exploit this public health emergency,” Rob Leathern, Facebook’s director of product management, said in a statement issued late Friday.
Facebook noted that it previously announced a ban on ads that make claims about the health benefits of a particular product or guaranteed that “a product will prevent someone from contracting” the disease.
Some public health officials have urged people to stop buying masks. U.S. Surgeon General Dr. Jerome M. Adams noted in a tweet on Feb. 29 that masks aren’t effective in protecting the general public “but if healthcare providers can’t get them to care for sick patients, it puts them and our communities at risk!”
In a separate development, Amtrak announced that it was canceling its nonstop Acela passenger train service between Washington, D.C., and New York City through late May because of a sharp drop in demand. That service will be canceled starting Tuesday and through May 28, Amtrak said.
The cancellation does not affect Amtrak’s other high-speed Acela service connecting Washington, New York and Boston, which runs several times per day with limited stops.
More must-read stories from Fortune:
—Testing for coronavirus should be free, but it’s not always that simple
—Coronavirus is mutating: Chinese scientists find second strain
—Coronavirus is giving China cover to expand its surveillance. What happens next?
—The coronavirus is officially claiming its first corporate casualties
—Why the U.S. is so far behind other countries in coronavirus testing
—Travel insurance is booming, even though it doesn’t help flight changes and cancellations
—Six states are still not testing for coronavirus
Subscribe to Fortune’s Outbreak newsletter for a daily roundup of stories on the coronavirus outbreak and its impact on global business.


fortune--2020-03-07--Fact checking Trump’s claims on the coronavirus outbreak—and its impact on the economy

Subscribe to Fortune’s Outbreak newsletter for a daily roundup of stories on the coronavirus outbreak and its impact on global business.
As the stock market convulses, airline schedules buckle and businesses worry their overseas supply lines will snap, President Donald Trump is looking on the sunny side of an economy clouded by the coronavirus.
For several weeks he’s played down the consequences of the public health emergency even as his agencies scramble to manage it. Now he’s suggesting that a robust jobs report might be explained in part by the prospect that Americans are hunkering down and focusing more of their spending in their own country. There’s no evidence that the virus has juiced jobs.
Trump’s plentiful and sometimes inaccurate comments on the outbreak this past week prompted the chairman of the Senate Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Committee, Sen. Lamar Alexander, R-Tenn., to suggest that Trump and Vice President Mike Pence stand back and “let the experts do the talking.” Trump paid that advice no heed.
A sampling of the past week’s rhetoric on the virus and other matters and how it compares with the facts:
On the economic impact of coronavirus
Trump claim: “We’re going to have Americans staying home instead of going and spending the money in other countries. And maybe that’s one of the reasons the job numbers are so good.” — remarks to the press Friday.
The Facts: That is not one of the reasons the job numbers are so good.
The government’s report Friday showing employers added a healthy 273,000 jobs last month was compiled before the coronavirus had spread through multiple states.
Even so, the report showed employment at hotels was flat. Restaurant hiring jumped by more than 50,000, but most economists attributed that to relatively warm weather. Now, with many businesses restricting their employees’ travel, airlines are already getting hit: United Airlines said Wednesday it has instituted a hiring freeze.
Trump is probably correct that fewer Americans will go abroad and spend money while the outbreak is active. The flip side is that fewer foreigners may come to the U.S. and spend their money here.
Related: How COVID-19 defied borders to reach 100,000 cases worldwide
On a temporarily canceled trip to the CDC
White House claim: “The President is no longer traveling to Atlanta today. The CDC has been proactive and prepared since the very beginning and the President does not want to interfere with the CDC’s mission to protect the health and welfare of their people and the agency.” — statement Friday about Trump’s planned visit to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
The Facts: Actually, the White House rationale for canceling the trip was contradicted a short time later by Trump, who said he postponed because a CDC employee in Atlanta was thought to have contracted the infectious disease and “because of the one person, they didn’t want me going.” It was not about staying out of the way of CDC employees,
He said it turned out that the person was not infected. He visited the CDC after all.
President Trump visits the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) in Atlanta, Georgia, on March 6, 2020. JIM WATSON—AFP/Getty Images
On the coronavirus outbreak symptoms and how the American people should prepare
Trump claim: “A lot of people will have this, and it’s very mild. They will get better very rapidly. They don’t even see a doctor … So, if we have thousands or hundreds of thousands of people that get better just by, you know, sitting around and even going to work — some of them go to work, but they get better.” – Fox News interview Wednesday.
Trump claim: “I NEVER said people that are feeling sick should go to work. This is just more Fake News.” — tweet Thursday.
The Facts: He seems to be suggesting that people with COVID-19 can go to work if they have minor symptoms, contradicting the guidance of his federal health officials. Regardless of how sick people may or may not feel, people are advised to stay home.
The CDC states that people with confirmed or suspected COVID-19 who do not need hospitalization should restrict their activities and “stay home except to get medical care.”
“Do not go to work, school or public areas,” it states.
Subscribe to Fortune’s Outbreak newsletter for a daily roundup of stories on the coronavirus outbreak and its impact on global business.
On developing tests for coronavirus in patients
Trump claim: “The Obama administration made a decision on testing that turned out to be very detrimental to what we’re doing. And we undid that decision a few days ago so that the testing can take place in a much more accurate and rapid fashion.” — Wednesday at the White House.
Vice President Mike Pence claim: “The last administration asserted FDA jurisdiction over testing and the development of tests like this. … The president changed that on Saturday so that now, as I spoke to several governors this morning, the states now have the ability to actually conduct the coronavirus test in state labs, university laboratories.” — Wednesday at the White House.
Trump claim: “And now we have tremendous flexibility. Many, many more sites. Many, many more people. And you couldn’t have had that under the Obama rule, and we ended that rule very quickly.” — Wednesday.
The Facts: They’re trying to blame Barack Obama for something his administration didn’t do.
It’s not true that an Obama-era rule limited laboratories run by companies, universities and hospitals from developing and running tests for the coronavirus during an emergency. No such regulation existed.
The Trump administration’s action last Saturday only undid a policy that its own Food and Drug Administration put in place. The new action lets labs develop and use coronavirus diagnostic tests before the agency reviews them. Previously, the FDA had only authorized use of a government test developed by the CDC.
FDA guidance drafted during the Obama administration called for tighter regulation of so-called laboratory-developed tests, a market traditionally not overseen by the agency. But that guidance was not brought into effect. Even if it had been, it would not have applied to public health emergencies such as the coronavirus.
Related: Trump administration budget cuts could become a major problem as coronavirus spreads
On the development of a coronavirus vaccine
Trump claim: “We’re talking about a vaccine. Maybe a cure is possible. But we’re talking about a vaccine and they’re moving along very quickly, all of the pharmaceutical companies, are moving along very quickly.” — remarks Monday.
Trump claim: The U.S. may have a vaccine “relatively soon” and “something that makes you feel better … sooner.” — North Carolina rally Monday.
The Facts: That’s misleading, given the far more cautious pronouncements of federal public health officials and scientists. They say a vaccine is probably more than a year away at best and there are no special treatments for COVID-19. The notion of a quick “cure” is not in their vocabulary as they focus on trying to help people avoid getting the disease in the first place.
What’s actually happening: Studies have begun in COVID-19 patients in parts of the world to see if certain antiviral medications could help treat the infection.
Today, there are no proven treatments. In China, scientists have been testing a combination of HIV drugs against the new coronavirus, as well as an experimental drug named remdesivir that was in development to fight Ebola. In the U.S., the University of Nebraska Medical Center also began testing remdesivir in some Americans who were found to have COVID-19 after being evacuated from a cruise ship in Japan.
It’s not known how soon such studies will answer whether any of the drugs help. And many patients recover without needing any treatment. The biggest concern is how to help the fraction who become severely ill.
Commentary: Coronavirus shows how we need vaccines before, not after, an outbreak
On the U.S.’s preparedness for coronavirus outbreak
Trump claim: The U.S. is “ranked by far No. 1 in the world for preparedness” — North Carolina rally.
The Facts: Not “by far.”
He’s referring to a report coauthored by Johns Hopkins Centers for Health Security. Hopkins experts on Monday said the U.S. got a “grade” that overall was highest by a few points among a variety of high-income countries that are all at about the same level of preparedness.
But the report’s overall finding: “No country is fully prepared for an epidemic or pandemic,” cautioned Hopkins’ Jennifer Nuzzo, who coauthored the report.
It’s difficult to say from the report that a country that scores two points higher than another is going to fare much better, she added.
In the U.S., the biggest worry is access to that health care. “If fear of the cost of health care is a deterrent, that could create a bad situation where people stay at home, potentially infecting others,” she said.
More must-read stories from Fortune:
—Testing for coronavirus should be free, but it’s not always that simple
—Coronavirus is mutating: Chinese scientists find second strain
—Coronavirus is giving China cover to expand its surveillance. What happens next?
—The coronavirus is officially claiming its first corporate casualties
—Why the U.S. is so far behind other countries in coronavirus testing
—Travel insurance is booming, even though it doesn’t help flight changes and cancellations
—Six states are still not testing for coronavirus
Subscribe to Fortune’s Outbreak newsletter for a daily roundup of stories on the coronavirus outbreak and its impact on global business.


fortune--2020-03-07--5G’s promise: A new heartbeat for healthcare

Picture this: An ambulance rushes a seriously injured patient to the hospital. In the back, the paramedic makes a video call with doctors while sending them real-time vital signs and images of the injury.
It doesn’t look good.
The paramedic pulls out what looks like an oversized ski glove connected to wires and grabs an ultrasound wand that a sonographer in an office somewhere virtually steers over the patient’s injury. The sonographer then reviews the images for signs of trouble.
By the time the ambulance pulls up to the emergency room, the patient’s data, medical history, and insurance information has already been reviewed. The operating room is prepped, and a doctor starts robotic-assisted surgery, which provides crystal-clear 3D images showing anatomic details that would otherwise be invisible to the naked eye.
Internet-connected ambulances, patient monitoring from afar, and robotic-assisted surgeries are small examples of what experts say may become normal in healthcare after superfast 5G mobile networks—the successor to today’s 4G—become widespread. The technology, supporters say, will vastly improve patient treatment by allowing for even greater use of data and video and sci-fi technologies that rely on it.
“On a 4G network, if you were trying to transfer this kind of information from an ambulance that’s moving to a hospital, I think it would probably take as long or longer than it would take to arrive at the medical center,” said Scott Boden, vice president for business innovation for Emory Healthcare, in Atlanta. “It’s just not practical at this moment.”
On a 5G network, however, huge amounts of data can be transferred in a few seconds or less, he added. The technology’s potential to transform a number of industries has companies and investors making big bets on this space.
Improved connectivity from 5G and other advanced networking technologies could enable gains in efficiency thattranslate into an extra $250 billion to $420 billionin annual global GDP by 2030 , Sreenivas Ramaswamy, a partner at McKinsey & Company and McKinsey Global Institute, told Fortune.
Other digitized healthcare benefits–such as increased efficiency for health workers, paperless data systems, and telemedicine raise the possible financial benefits to $1.5 trillion to $3.0 trillion annually by 2030, he said. And, indirect effects on healthcare, such as better health outcomes and healthier populations, may increase global GDP by another $2.1 trillion annually[JB9] by increasing worker productivity, extending life expectancy, and improving patient care, Ramaswamy added.
5G technology is touted as critical for implementing and commercializing augmented and virtual reality, which experiences lag time when running on 4G networks. It’s also seen as important to improving how data is exchanged between connected devices.
“When we think about 5G, we’re thinking about things like artificial intelligence, VR and AR,” said Maggie Hallbach, vice president of state, local and education public sector group at Verizon. “If you attempt to do VR and AR in a 4G environment, over an extended period of time, it will give you motion sickness because of the lag. It’s only a 20 to 50 millisecond lag, but that causes your visual recognition and your brain to process information differently.”
5G’s limited latency–the time it takes for information to make a round trip between two points–along with the millions of Internet-connected devices that are expected to come online, can help to solve real-world issues in an industry in which every millisecond counts.
Atlanta-based Emory Healthcare Innovation Hub (EHIH) hopes to tap into that promise. The initiative is focused on leveraging 5G and other newer technologies to develop robotic-assisted surgical techniques, remote physical therapy, medical imaging, and yes, connected ambulances.
Partners include Emory University and Emory Healthcare, along with corporations like Konica Minolta Healthcare, Novo Nordisk, Philips, Stryker, and as of a couple weeks ago, Verizon.
Bringing digital innovations to the healthcare industry could potentially reduce the cost of care, said Boden. But barriers such as organizational complexity and legacy systems make it difficult to introduce new technology into the healthcare industry.
“We are working on a connected ambulance project that bridges the gap between 911 dispatchers, the ambulance, the care coordinator and the emergency department,” said James Lewis, CEO and co-founder of 11 Ten Innovation Partners, which manages the Emory Healthcare Innovation Hub. Soon, too, the connected ambulances will be equipped with imaging devicesthat can used while the patient is in transit.
As with all technology advances, 5G opens up a Pandora’s box of issues, according to a recent McKinsey Global Institute report. Data security, patient privacy and regulations for how patient data can be shared and profited from are the top concerns. Another major obstacle is changing how the healthcare industry operates in light of its heavy regulation and traditional slowness in adopting new technology.
Lewis believes that 5G’s impact will be more immediately seen in the retail and consumer industries, because people will be able to do things they were unable to do on 3G or 4G networks. “Imagine going to the Super Bowl where 100,000 people in the stadium will be able to stream multiple, high-definition videos all at once, without a lag. A few years ago, in that same space, they all couldn’t make a phone call at the same time,” Lewis said.
He continued: “Healthcare, though, will be a later use case for 5G. It’s a big industry that struggles to adopt new technology because there’s a lot of scrutiny, security and other regulatory things around it We may have driverless cars on the roads, 3D-printed parts in construction, but getting something like a digital stethoscope implemented could be a real struggle.”
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fortune--2020-03-07--Google and Unilever use this new initiative to take on better family leave implementation

In the past decade, more companies have instituted progressive family leave plans that cover not only those who give birth, but their partners as well. And while this is a step in the right direction, Jenny Galluzzo wonders if every employer is implementing their policies in the most effective way.
Galluzzo is the co-founder of The Second Shift, a talent marketplace that connects women with flexible work opportunities that meet their specific skill sets. She and her co-founder Gina Hadley have seen that while companies recognize the importance of a comprehensive family leave policy, they’re often in the dark when it comes to actually implementing one.
“There’s a difference between the intention of the people creating the policy and the execution of the managers and the team that has someone going on leave,” Galluzzo said.
That’s why The Second Shift created a new initiative called Let’s Be Human: Welcoming Parenthood at Work. This best-practices guide, which already has big name sponsors, outlines not only what effective leave policies are, but the steps in which the entire team—not just the manager and the employee—can feel supported in that transition.
“This is about having a conversation and facilitating a dialogue around family leave with enough time so both the employee and the manager feel supported,” she said. “This is a very emotional and a very personal experience. We don’t want managers to feel overwhelmed, and we don’t want employees feeling like they don’t want to come back into their job because it wasn’t comfortable to leave.”
The Family and Medical Leave Act—a U.S. law mandating covered employees to have access to unpaid leave for qualified medical and family reasons—was passed less than 30 years ago. In the past decade, as family leave has become a hot-button issue, Galluzzo said companies have enacted policies without understanding the human impact. The guide aims to tackle that aspect.
Specifically, the guide includes a recommended timeline for discussing leave, checklists on what to discuss, and impactful ways to be supportive during this time. For instance, the guide recommends family leave planning begins at least five months before the impending leave. It recommends going through the leave policy in detail, preferably in writing. As the leave gets closer, the guide recommends setting up dedicated meetings between HR, management, and the employee using a checklist as a guide for what needs to happen before, during and after leave.
It also features testimonials from both managers and employees about their parental leave experiences, offering personal insights into how people perceive the policies that impact them. Once these plans are in action at corporations, The Second Shift will collect data on how effective these changes were and offer the research as updated modules in the guide.
The Second Shift’s new initiative has two major corporate sponsors behind it. Google and Unilever have taken the guide and are doing events with their staff based on the guidelines, Galluzzo said. The guide is slated to “officially” launch sometime this spring, but Galluzzo said they’re already working with corporations to start facilitating discussions among leadership and employees.
By asking corporations to think about family leave in a different way, Galluzzo hopes it will keep moving the needle forward for women in the workplace.
“We’re really excited to see that in such a short amount of time, so much has changed in the working world for women and for families,” she said. “This is a very rapidly changing landscape. Having to figure this out at the top to implementing it very quickly can be a big shift, and it takes a lot. There are so many pieces of [family leave] that have to work together to make change and it to make a lasting impact.”
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fortune--2020-03-07--Connected vehicles will make our roads safer—but only with regulators’ help

In 2018, an estimated 40,000 Americans died in traffic accidents. Sadly, an estimated 94% of these accidents are due to human error, according to a 2015 study by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA).
Thankfully, an innovation that could significantly reduce the number of traffic deaths isn’t too far down the road.
Connected vehicles—vehicles with on-board sensors and advanced software that communicates with drivers, other vehicles, road infrastructure, and the cloud—have the potential to not only dramatically improve traffic safety, but also reduce congestion on our roads.
This technology should become increasingly common in the coming years. According to research firm IHS Markit, 72.5 million connected cars will be sold globally in 2023 (24 million were sold in 2015), which would make up almost 70% of all passenger vehicle sales.
That’s great news. And once the federal government provides certainty there will be adequate radio spectrum for connected vehicles, the technology will have the chance to fully excel.
Tech and automobile companies, as well as some states, are already making major strides with V2X technology. My company, Panasonic, is deeply invested: Through partnerships with the Colorado, Utah, and Georgia transportation departments, we’re already operating an advanced transportation data network and cloud platform.
Connected vehicles work by collecting information from their surroundings and communicating it to each other, as well as intelligent transportation infrastructure that uses sensors installed alongside roads, on utility poles, on large gantries along highways, and on poles dedicated for traffic cameras or lights. This vehicle-to-everything, or “V2X,” communication, as it’s called, delivers practical information to drivers and workers coordinating road traffic.
Widespread V2X deployment will have a major impact on road safety. According to the NHTSA, connected cars could prevent up to 80% of multi-vehicle crashes involving unimpaired drivers.
Connected vehicles are able to send and receive immediate warnings or guidance based on road conditions. For instance, a connected vehicle could send data to roadside sensors when it rapidly changes speed, which would then communicate to traffic operators that an abnormal situation might be occurring. Operators could then dispatch emergency personnel if necessary, depending on data shared by other vehicles in the vicinity.
As connected cars spread across the driving fleet, machine-learning platforms can develop models from the data over time and begin predicting conditions and incidents. Such platforms, managed by traffic administration agencies, could suggest improvements to road infrastructure at points on the road that can be particularly hazardous, such as sudden sharp turns on rural freeways or slick pavement due to poor weather.
Connected vehicle technology can address traffic congestion too. In addition to costing the U.S. economy an estimated $87 billion in 2018, per INRIX data, congestion also reduces the productivity of workers idling in traffic, adds costs and length of time for transporting goods, and increases air pollution.
Sharing real-time traffic data can prevent jams before they impede traffic flow. The state of Utah has built one of the first operational connected-vehicle corridors in the U.S. in Salt Lake City and Provo. Its buses are equipped with radios that “talk” to traffic signals. If the bus is running behind schedule, the signal can extend the length of the green light without any action taken by the bus driver.
Some states have already begun deploying connected car technology in roadway infrastructure. In addition to the aforementioned Utah program, states like Colorado, New York, and Wyoming,and many others, are using connected vehicle technology to gather and send vital safety information directly to roadway infrastructure users.
Auto manufacturers are also embracing this innovation. Ford, for example, announced earlier this year that all 2022 models in the U.S. will be equipped with an advanced V2X system. Cadillac is working to enable its cars with V2X capabilities by 2023. And most of Volkswagen’s 2020 European models will be equipped with V2X.
But in order to expand connected vehicles nationwide, the federal government needs to create certainty in the market. The Federal Communications Commission (FCC) recently proposed changes that would allow part of the radio spectrum allocated for transportation safety to be used for communications unrelated to transportation. The FCC’s proposed plan would allow harmful interference from adjacent Wi-Fi bands, similar to having a noisy neighbor move in next door. This interference would threaten to disable the benefits of deploying V2X’s lifesaving technology, and could impel some vehicle manufacturers that had previously committed to deploying V2X technology on the radio spectrum to pull back.
To provide certainty that connected cars can directly share data between vehicles to improve safety, the FCC should continue to work with the U.S. Transportation Department to ensure enough interference-free spectrum is available for transportation safety.
Improving regulations around V2X will help the technology mature faster. By combining smart government efforts like this with private innovation, connected vehicles will soon be making all of our lives safer and more convenient.
Michael Moskowitz is chairman and CEO of Panasonic Corporation of North America.
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fortune--2020-03-07--Growing coronavirus threat weighs on Apple

As the coronavirus outbreak continues to spread, big technology companies are canceling their public events. And following the last-minute cancellation on Friday of the SXSW conference and festival in Austin, the pressure is on Apple over its annual Worldwide Developers Conference (WWDC), which it usually hosts in June.
Apple’s silence—and the continuing impact coronavirus is having on its business—continued to be a major focus this week. It didn’t help matters when Hon Hai Precision Industry, the manufacturing partner better known as Foxconn and a key maker of Apple devices, said that its Chinese manufacturing plants won’t operate at normal capacity until the end of March.
But not even the news about the coronavirus outbreak was enough to stop reports about Apple’s plans for future iPads and Macs. Chief among them was a report from TF International Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo, who said he had details about new MacBook Pros, iPad Pros, and iMac Pros planned for later this year.
Apple’s manufacturing problems
One of Apple’s biggest manufacturing partners said this week that it won’t return to full capacity until the end of March. Foxconn said that its manufacturing facilities are currently operating at about 50% because of long staff vacations for the Chinese New Year holiday in January and the subsequent coronavirus outbreak, but that they should return to full capacity by the end of the month as more workers come back. The company’s chairman Young Liu said despite the production shortfall, Foxconn’s customers, which include Apple and Microsoft, haven’t seen a significant drop in supply. Still, Foxconn’s revenue was down to $7.3 billion in February, compared to $8.9 billion last year, because of coronavirus.
Stay at home, folks
Apple said on Friday that it will now allow employees working at its offices in Silicon Valley and Seattle to work from home instead of the office. The company called the move an “additional precaution” against coronavirus. Apple’s stores in Seattle and Silicon Valley are still operating on their normal schedules, and the policy doesn’t extend to retail employees. The company has, however, limited the number of Today at Apple courses at its stores, and will add more physical space between people who visit stores for Genius Bar appointments to limit contact between people. Apple didn’t say for how long its new policy will remain in effect.
A call to cancel WWDC
After Google, Facebook, and other prominent tech companies cancelled events because of coronavirus, all eyes are on whether Apple will pull the plug on this year’s Worldwide Developers Conference. While Apple hasn’t yet said what its plans are, Santa Clara County, home to many tech companies, this week called on all major technology companies to cancel major gatherings and to suspend all employee travel.
Preventing the spread of misinformation
Apple is trying to prevent coronavirus misinformation from spreading through its software, according to a CNBC report. The company has been quietly banning certain apps that are focused on coronavirus from its App Store. The target are apps created by organizations that aren’t “recognized” coronavirus authorities, the report said. Developers who spoke to Apple about the ban say the iPhone maker is only allowing apps in its App Store that provide useful medical information from trusted sources. Apple hasn’t commented about the alleged policy.
Big new product plans
In a note to investors this week, TF International Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo said Apple has several new products in the pipeline. Chief among them is a new 14.1-inch MacBook Pro that could replace the existing 13-inch MacBook Pro. Apple is also working on a new, high-end iMac Pro, and a new iPad Pro, Kuo said. The devices may use new mini-LED screen technology, which promises bright colors and deep black levels like the organic light-emitting diode (OLED) technology found in Apple’s latest iPhones. However, unlike OLED, mini-LED isn’t prone to screen damage, called burn-in, when users keep the same visual on the display for a long period of time.
New products coming soon
An anonymous leaker on Twitter who goes by the pseudonym CoinX and who has one of the more reliable Apple rumor track records, said this week that Apple plans to release new consumer-focused Macs “soon.” The leaker said new iMac and Mac Mini desktops are next on Apple’s release schedule. The person also said that a new iPad that Apple is working on will come with a dramatically improved camera. As always, take these rumors with the proverbial grain of salt, since Apple hasn’t confirmed any of them.
One more thing…
Would you like to do your part to fight coronavirus? An initiative called Folding@Home gives Mac users a chance to let their computers’ excess processing power be used to fight coronavirus. After downloading Folding@Home software on the Mac, the initiative will use any unused processing power on Macs, and combine it with resources of other computers that are part of the program. Folding@Home researchers will then use that computing power to analyze COVID-19 data with the goal of designing and developing new therapies and drugs to save lives. Folding@Home already uses the technique to research cancer, neurological diseases, and other infectious diseases.
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fortune--2020-03-07--Germany’s freedom from speed limits may be running out of road

For decades, German lawmakers have debated and rejected imposing a “Tempolimit” on the beloved Autobahn system.
But now Germans’ deeply held right to drive fast is facing its biggest challenge in a generation, sparked by intensifying fears about the environmental and public safety impact of the country’s need-for-speed culture.
Today, a decisive clash seems inevitable, as the Green Party—which supports speed limits on environmental and safety grounds—rises in the run-up to the 2021 elections, and Germany’s storied automakers dig in their heels in opposition.
Germany’s upper house of Parliament last month voted down a 130 km/h (80 mph) speed limit, but that vote likely only offers a temporary stay. In addition to the Greens, which at roughly 20% in the polls, is now the second-most popular party in Germany, the new leadership of the Socialists (SPD), the junior governing partner with Chancellor Angela Merkel’s conservatives, has also taken up the cause.
The German public itself appears to be divided: according to polling company Infratest Dimap, slightly more than half of Germans are in favor of the 130 km/h highway speed limit, a level of support that has stayed relatively constant over the past few years.
But influential German carmakers, who churn out sporty automobiles like Audis, Mercedes, and BMWs, want no part of it, and they have a message for those who hope to finally place a speed limit on the country’s cherished motorways: Slow down.
Mercedes-Benz owner Daimler? “In general we consider it a good idea not to restrict customers, but offer products they want,” a spokesperson said. BMW is “only in favor of speed limits for high-risk sections of road, as long as speed limits are not instead of road expansion or renewal projects.” And Volkswagen dismissed the significance of the proposed changes. Even if a general speed limit were passed, the carmaker says, it “would have more of a symbolic character.”
Automakers in Germany hold significant political sway, particularly among conservatives and in places like Bavaria, BMW’s home region. The CSU, the Bavarian partner with Merkel’s CDU, has fought hard against speed restrictions, helping to defeat a Green Party-backed measure last year in the Bundestag. CSU Transport Minister Andreas Scheuer said at the time that an Autobahn speed limit “defies all common sense.”
Ultimately, Germany’s carmakers and their allies are content to keep producing speedy cars as long as Germans are buying them. “They know their clients. We love to go fast,” said Ulf Poschardt, the editor-in-chief of German newspaper Die Welt and an outspoken voice against a speed limit.
Greens rising
“Our main incentive is safety,” Oliver Krischer, a member of the Bundestag for the Greens and the party’s deputy parliamentary group leader, told me. “Traffic accidents with fatal casualties and injured may be cut in half through a speed limit.”
Though Germany is the only country in Europe without an official highway speed limit, about 30% of the 8,000-mile Autobahn network already has some sort of cap, in many cases due to curvy roads or high levels of traffic. These more treacherous stretches naturally see a higher number of accidents than less busy pedal-to-the-metal zones, a point that many pro-speeding enthusiasts like to cite.
Autobahn advocates also contend that Germany has the safest highways in the world, though new OECD data suggests that Germany doesn’t even rank highly in Europe. According to a recent calculation from Der Spiegel, a speed limit could prevent up to 140 deaths a year (government statistics pegged highway traffic deaths at 409 in 2017). Studies looking at local German states that have imposed speed limits also showed that they resulted in fewer accidents, injuries, and deaths.
Firefighters extinguish vehicles on Autobahn 5 near Karlsruhe after a rear-end collision between a truck and a car, on July 22, 2019. Uli Deck—Picture Alliance via Getty Images
Environmentally, a speed limit would cause a slight reduction in German carbon emissions, and last year, Germany’s Federal Environment Agency called on the government to introduce the limit as part of a package of green changes. Car companies like Volkswagen, of course, would rather emphasize other kinds of efficiency measures, like digitizing traffic flow. “At Volkswagen, we focus on intelligent, sound solutions rather than bans,” the spokesperson said.
Krischer said that the Green Party nevertheless intends to highlight the issue heading into the next German federal election expected to be held between summer and fall 2021. “Few people truly enjoy driving in areas without a speed limit because cars frequently approach them [going] 180 km/h (112 mph) or more from behind,” he said.
Turbo-charged freedom
The potential change has faced serious pushback. The speed limit conversation has long been a third rail in domestic politics and, culturally, it’s hard to overstate just how passionately many Germans cling to their turbo-charged freedoms.
The automobile has functioned as a core national symbol for generations (Karl Benz, a German engineer, is credited with inventing the first modern production car in 1885). The Autobahn itself holds a unique sentimental status: The motorway network, first constructed by the Nazi regime, expanded in the 1960s and came to represent Germany’s post-war economic boom.
“The Autobahn is just brilliant,” Die Welt editor-in-chief Poschardt said. “It is our Statue of Liberty. Don’t touch it.”
“The Autobahn is just brilliant,” says Die Welt editor-in-chief Ulf Poschardt. “It is our Statue of Liberty. Don’t touch it.” Inga Kjer—Photothek/Getty Images
Nowadays, car-enthusiasts flock to Germany to drive on the Autobahn. Even the federal government recommends it as “one of the seven things you must do in Germany.”
“We don’t have something like drag racing in Germany, where you accelerate quickly and that’s fine. In Germany, it’s high speeds over long distances,” said Christopher Neumaier, a historian and professor at the Leibniz Centre for Contemporary History Potsdam.
Changing views
During the 1973 energy crisis, a brief Autobahn speed restriction and series of “car free Sundays” were met with deep resistance. The ADAC, Germany’s biggest car club, coined the slogan “Freie Fahrt für freie Bürger!” — “free driving for free citizens” — which became a well-known rallying cry.
Now, however, things are changing at the ADAC. A kind of hardcore version of US road-side assistance organization AAA, the ADAC walked back its anti-speed limit stance in January, saying that its members were more or less divided on the issue. The club is now “no longer fundamentally” against the general speed cap, its vice president for traffic told German news agency DPA.
The move marked a major shift for full-throttle car advocates in Germany. “Now that one of the big lobbying groups has disappeared, the interesting question is how the car industry will react,” Neumaier said.
For the time being, automakers refuse to change course. “We reject a general speed limit, as there are no convincing arguments for this. Rather, it is a symbol debate that has been activated time and again for years,” said a spokesperson for the Verband der Automobilindustrie, the German automaker trade group.
Poschardt predicts that the Greens and climate activists will ultimately win out, which he believes will take away much of the joy he derives from driving his Porsche. “The GT in my GT3RS stands for Greta Thunberg, and I hope she will realize that the speed on the Autobahn is not worth fighting against.” (Thunberg has not commented on the issue).
For outside observers and plenty of Germans alike, the lack of a speed limit is one of the more odd and potentially dangerous quirks of the country. The intensity it provokes also tends to draw a comparison to a similarly controversial American freedom.
“It’s the German right to ‘keep and bear arms,’” Neumaier said.
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fortune--2020-03-07--How the ‘fear center’ in your brain is driving panic selling and buying in the stock market

In 2019, there wasn’t a single daily loss for the S&P 500 in excess of 3%. Over the past nine trading sessions, there have been losses of -3.4%, -3.0%, -4.6% and -3.4%. And Tuesday saw stocks fall nearly 3%, down 2.8% on the day.
Volatility is back in a big way but it doesn’t always work in the same direction. Monday saw the S&P 500 rise close to 5% in a single day. Wednesday the S&P was up more than 4%. This means 6 out of the past 9 trading sessions saw losses or gains in excess of 3%.
The current bout of volatility is likely some combination of the potential pandemic from the coronavirus and the shake-up in the Democratic primary. But there are other factors at play when stocks begin seeing such big moves with almost no memory from day-to-day.
Research shows that investors hold onto losing stocks too long in hopes they’ll come back to their original price while selling their winners too early. Recency bias and anchoring to recent results create a situation in which markets often underreact to initial news reports, events or data releases.
On the flip side, once things become apparent, investors enter a herd mentality and overreact, causing an overshoot to either the upside or downside. Fear, greed, overconfidence and the confirmation bias can lead investors to pile into winning areas of the market after they’ve risen or pile out after they’ve fallen, exacerbating moves in both directions.
These behavioral biases are all elements of human nature that exist in some form within all of us but they become amplified during a market rout.
The amygdala is the reflexive part of your brain that responds to danger and potential risks. It plays a role in shaping fear and anger. At times, this fear center in your brain acts as your own internal Spidey sense to keep you out of harm’s way. But the amygdala also becomes more active when we are losing money, switching on our fear center at a time when emotions are already on high alert.
In his book Your Money and Your Brain, Jason Zweig discusses how the fight or flight instinct is often triggered when people lose money:
“A surge of signals from the amygdala can also trigger the release of adrenaline and other stress hormones, which have been found to “fuse” memories, making them more indelible. And an upsetting event can shock neurons in the amygdala into firing in synch for hours—even during sleep.”
Zweig says, “It is literally true that we can relive our financial losses in our nightmares.” And because this fear center kicks in when there are big, quick changes, sudden market downturns can make a huge impact on how investors react to these things.
This fear can manifest itself in both panic selling and panic buying when volatility flares up in the markets. For instance, over a six-day period during the 2011 European debt crisis, the S&P 500 saw the following trading pattern:
There was no rational reason for stocks to rise and fall by more than 4% in 5 out of 6 trading days but stocks were in the midst of a double-digit correction and the Great Financial Crisis was still fresh in people’s minds.
So the types of market moves we’ve seen in recent weeks are nothing new. The question is: How do you prepare yourself as an investor to avoid financial nightmares from causing even greater pain in your portfolio?
Automate good decisions in advance. Automation can help people save more but it can also lead to better-informed investment decisions. Creating if/then investing parameters, rebalancing bands, asset allocation targets, and rules-based buy and sell decisions can help avoid making decisions under duress when your brain is not functioning at full speed. The fear response can be dampened if you make your investment decisions ahead of time.
Build losses into your investment plan. The stock market is up roughly 3 out of every 4 years but even when stocks go up in a given year, they always incur setbacks. To avoid overreacting you have to assume stocks can and will go down at some point, even if you don’t know the reason in advance or the magnitude of the losses.
Find an outlet. When volatility picks up it becomes tempting to overcompensate by paying more attention to the markets than usual or making more changes to your portfolio than you normally would. One way to avoid reacting to your fear center is by giving your brain a rest.
Go for a jog, hit the gym or take a walk. The amygdala also produces adrenaline so finding a way to channel that boost in energy can help make more level-headed decisions and avoid the stress that comes from losing money.
Ben Carlson, CFA is the Director of Institutional Asset Management at Ritholtz Wealth Management. He may own securities or assets discussed in this piece.


fortune--2020-03-07--Four Seasons just unveiled its first all-inclusive wellness resort

The Hawaiian island of Lanai has had quite the history. It first gained renown in the 1920s when 98% of it was purchased by James Dole, who turned it into the world’s largest pineapple plantation. The final harvest took place in 1992, and things have mellowed out since. But in 2012, tech billionaire and Oracle founder Larry Ellison purchased that 98% (the rest is owned by the state) and has been upgrading Lanai’s cachet as a luxury holiday destination with Four Seasons as partner.
In 2016, following hundreds of millions of dollars and a seven-month closure, the beachside Manele Bay Hotel reemerged fully transformed as the Four Seasons Resort Lanai. And toward the end of 2019, the Lodge at Koele, a plantation-style hotel that was shuttered in 2015, reopened with an entirely new personality. It’s now the Four Seasons Hotel Lanai at Koele, a Sensei Retreat, a wellness-focused all-inclusive tucked away on the pine-covered slopes of the mountain.
Located just nine miles west of Maui, this rugged, green-and-red 88,000-acre rock—where there are no stoplights but plenty of feral chickens and turkeys—sounds, smells, looks, and feels like the perfect place for Four Seasons to unveil its first foray into the wellness arena. But wellness wasn’t what was first planned for the lodge when work on its reimagination began in 2015. “Initial thoughts were to renovate the interiors and reopen as a resort once again,” says Alastair McAlpine, general manager of both properties. “But we always challenged ourselves to think about how we could create new reasons for visitors to consider coming to Lanai. And, of course, the property’s new focus on wellness is in line with industry trends too.”
Wellness made perfect sense for the owner, as well: In 2018, Larry Ellison introduced a new collaboration with longtime friend Dr. David Agus, professor of medicine at the University of Southern California, on the consumer wellness brand Sensei, which explores Agus’s three-prong approach to a healthy lifestyle: Move, nourish, and rest. This new retreat on Lanai allows guests a chance to embark on that wellness journey bolstered by Four Seasons’ luxury hospitality.
The newly opened Four Seasons Hotel Lanai at Koele, a Sensei Retreat is all about cutting-edge, personalized wellness programming. Courtesy of Four Seasons Resort Lanai at Koele, A Sensei Retreat
On the lush grounds of Koele (there’s no direct beach access here), the 96-room bolt-hole can really be anything, such is the visual narrative it presents. Brought to life by designer Todd-Avery Lenahan of TAL Studio, Four Seasons Hotel Lanai at Koele, a Sensei Retreat is, at the base level, a beautiful place to take a vacation. Tranquil water features—from a koi pond to a reflecting pool affixed with a wooden platform for yoga to a saltwater pool—are surrounded by not just a wild medley of colorful flora but also large-scale marquee art installations, including a voluptuous sculpture by Fernando Botero and stark-white pieces by Jaume Plensa.
In fact, if guests hadn’t completed a questionnaire and engaged in a planning call with the Sensei team ahead of arrival, they could be forgiven for forgetting they were entering a wellness resort altogether. Immersion into this new product is meant to be both comprehensive and upscale, which is why Four Seasons opted for a first-for-the-company all-inclusive model. But banish visions of piña coladas around a crowded pool of children and coeds. “The idea behind it was to offer a luxury experience that was completely customized,” McAlpine explains.
The nightly rate starts at $2,800 for single occupancy in a newly refreshed Koele room, which is swathed in a serene palette of white and cream. There’s a three-night minimum for booking, and if a couple were to share the room, the rate goes up to $4,500 a night. But when Four Seasons says all-inclusive, it means it. Air transfer from Oahu to Lanai is included as well as a Tesla pickup from the airstrip. And once there, guests would have to try really hard to find something that is not part of that pricing structure. (Mainly, it’s the premium wines and spirits that are extra.)
Promoting “The Sensei Way” as its brand, the hotel outlines three practices designed for guests to “maintain a conversation” with their bodies and minds: movement, nourishment, and rest. Courtesy of Four Seasons Resort Lanai at Koele, A Sensei Retreat
The pre-trip call and questionnaire determine the basic framework of a guest’s itinerary. Depending on what his or her goals are, this fully customizable program can be as loaded or as bare as desired. A meeting with a dedicated Sensei guide serves as orientation not just to the property but also to what lies ahead. “No one’s wellness journey is the same, therefore every guest will have a unique Sensei Retreat experience,” says Sensei CEO Kevin Kelly. “We create software and hardware products to help us efficiently gather data and utilize a science-based rating system to methodically research and build wellness programs that allow us to seamlessly curate a guest itinerary and deepen the experience.”
The Sensei guides are experts in their fields and often hold advanced degrees in relevant lines of study. They’re there to help guests implement healthier practices that would start at the retreat and hopefully extend beyond their stay. And the “move, nourish, and rest” approach can help simplify what that all means through one-on-one consultations about mental health, fitness, and nutrition, but also through the content of the itinerary, which could feature personal training, group meditation, scenic hikes, and spa treatments. Make no mistake: A personalized Sensei experience is not just about quiet time or eating salads. An itinerary can also include off-roading to discover Lanai’s rugged terrain, sunset sails around the island alongside whales, or horseback riding in the woods.
Guest itineraries are built based on pre-arrival consultations with the Sensei team, and once there, it’s all about yoga, spa treatments, meals by Nobu, and whatever else might assist on their wellness journeys. Courtesy of Four Seasons Resort Lanai at Koele, A Sensei Retreat
Speaking of the spa, the retreat’s Japanese-Hawaiian-style hales are some of its most spectacular features. Ten in total, these 1,000-square-foot relaxation hubs are fashioned out of warm chocolate wood and are equipped with deep ofuro tubs, dry saunas, outdoor showers, and two soaking pools (one cold, one warm). Availability permitting, guests can weave in as many treatments into their itineraries as they want—from a specialized body-mapping massage that uses Sensei-developed thermographic technology for a more targeted rubdown to a skin-hydrating facial. Similarly, enjoying “hale time” amenities has become a popular way for guests to unwind. Otherwise, there’s still the stunningly rustic onsen tubs scattered around the property.
And if a guest returns famished? The brand-new Sensei by Nobu, featuring a menu crafted alongside Sensei’s nutritionists, can whip up as indulgent a meal as required. “A Loco Moco made with quality wagyu beef and care in preparation serves that guest at that moment,” McAlpine says. “And it can provide an understanding that this journey to wellness is one that is ongoing and needs to reflect how people live, and work with their habits in life, to ultimately succeed.”
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fortune--2020-03-08--‘A disaster we didn’t expect’—Italy locks down millions to prevent deadly coronavirus spread

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Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte tried to contain the alarm spreading through Europe’s fourth-biggest economy, unveiling drastic measures in the middle of the night to restrict the spread of the deadly coronavirus.
In a hastily convened news conference Sunday morning, the head of a government already hanging by a thread said that Italy will dramatically restrict movement and activity for a quarter of its population in the economic powerhouse that is the region around Milan.
As news of the measures leaked, some Italians gave their reactions. Images and posts on social media showed people rushing to get on the last train out and escape a virtual lockdown amid some of the most sweeping anti-virus measures outside China. Schools have already been shut as tourism has ground to a halt and businesses take a hit in a country already on the brink of recession.
Conte’s latest effort at damage control comes as cases surged to 5,883 on Saturday with 233 deaths, and as Nicola Zingaretti, the leader of one of the two major government parties, announced he had contracted the illness.
Yet the premier’s late appearance, and his criticism of “unacceptable” leaks, did little to dispel concern that this was a government with a tenuous grasp of a rapidly evolving national emergency. Conte said he would take “political responsibility” for managing the crisis.
Market Reaction?
A key test of whether he succeeded will come Monday, when investors will assess the impact of his actions on Italy’s already weakened economy.
Spreads between Italian and German bonds have crept up since the coronavirus crisis erupted but have so far remained below the average of the past year. A spike in yields would put a further strain on Italy’s debt just as the government prepares to widen the deficit to prop up the economy.
Conte’s announcement came after an early draft of the new rules did the rounds and sparked confusion. Images abounded of Italians crowding trains from Milan and the north to make their way south before restrictions came into force. Train travel between northern and southern Italy appeared normal Sunday morning.
The regulations are set to come into force “within hours,” Conte said. They are to last until April 3, according to the draft seen by Bloomberg. A final text is still to be published.
The bans will stop anyone from entering or exiting the most-affected areas, while movement inside will be allowed only for demonstrable business or health reasons, the draft said. Skiing, public events, religious ceremonies and work meetings will be suspended, while schools, museums, swimming pools and theaters will close.
Bars and restaurants will have to make sure patrons keep at least one meter apart or they’ll be shut. The decree specifies that failing to respect the measures is a criminal offense, and might lead to imprisonment. Police and the army will be responsible for ensuring that containment measures are respected.
Some of the affected regions began signaling their resistance on Sunday morning. The Veneto region opposes the inclusion of the Padua, Treviso and Venice provinces in the decree, according to a statement published by Ansa. Maurizio Rasero, the mayor of Asti, which is in the affected zone, called the ban “madness, a disaster we didn’t expect.”
About 16 million people will be affected by restrictions across Lombardy and in 14 provinces around cities including Venice, Modena, Parma, Rimini and Treviso. A large part of the Piedmont region is also affected but not Turin, the regional capital and the headquarters of Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV.
A second decree with new containment rules for the rest of the country recommends citizens avoid travel outside their hometowns unless absolutely necessary, and restricts public events from demonstrations to theater shows.
With Italy’s economy already about to contract before the outbreak, the crisis has all but paralyzed business activity in Lombardy — which accounts for a fifth of the country’s gross domestic product — and the rest of the north, Italy’s economic engine.
The government decided on Thursday to double emergency spending to 7.5 billion euros ($8.5 billion) to help cushion the economic impact of the virus.
It’s also calling up 20,000 doctors, nurses and medical personnel to help deal with the outbreak. Fallout from the virus’s spread is slamming Italy’s key tourism industry at a time when the country is already teetering on the brink of recession.
The European Commission’s top economic officials approved Italy’s spending plans, saying in a letter to the government in Rome that its stimulus plans won’t be factored in when assessing the country’s compliance with the European Union’s fiscal rules.
— With assistance from Daniele Lepido, Tommaso Ebhardt, Alessandro Speciale, Sonia Sirletti and Ross Larsen.
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fortune--2020-03-08--Google Doodle celebrates International Women’s Day

Google is shining a spotlight on 2020 International Women’s Day with an animated Doodle that shows women across generations from around the world coming together.
The multilayered animation, illustrated by Oslo- and London-based artists Julie Wilkinson and Joyanne Horscrof and animated by Zurich-based guest animators Marion Willam and Daphne Abderhalden, blends women from the late 1800s through the 1930s (the labor movement), the 1950s-1980s (when gender equality made big strides), and the 1990s through today.
The Doodle, says Google, “pays tribute to breaking barriers from former cultural and gender roles, as women continue to question, reclaim, and redefine ideas about the roles women take on in society.”
As part of its observance of the day, Google is also offering a list of search data as it applies to women. Among the highlights:
Search interest in “songs about girl power” reached an all-time high in the U.S.
Search interest in “women’s empowerment” increased by over 330% since 2004 in the U.S.
Search interest in “women in tech” has increased by over 860% since 2004 in the U.S.
Google also highlighted the most searched for women in a variety of categories, including music (Taylor Swift), athletes (Serena Williams), and comedians (Awkwafina).
The Doodle is usually reserved for celebrities or people who might be lesser known, but whose contributions to society were notable. Google also uses it to showcase notable events like IWD, which this year falls on Sunday, March 8.
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fortune--2020-03-08--Coronavirus symptoms: The progression from moderate to severe can occur ‘very, very quickly’

Curing HIV and sickle cell falls short if the most vulnerable populations are left out

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The new coronavirus causes little more than a cough if it stays in the nose and throat, which it does for the majority of people unlucky enough to be infected. Danger starts when it reaches the lungs.
One in seven patients develops difficulty breathing and other severe complications, while 6% become critical. These patients typically suffer failure of the respiratory and other vital systems, and sometimes develop septic shock, according to a report by last month’s joint World Health Organization-China mission.
The progression from mild or moderate to severe can occur “very, very quickly,” said Bruce Aylward, a WHO assistant director-general who co-led a mission in China that reviewed data from 56,000 cases. Understanding the course of the disease and identifying individuals at greatest risk are critical for optimizing care for a global contagion that’s killed more than 3,700 people since emerging in central China in December.
About 10-15% of mild-to-moderate patients progress to severe and of those, 15-20% progress to critical. Patients at highest risk include people age 60 and older and those with pre-existing conditions such as hypertension, diabetes and cardiovascular disease.
“The clinical picture suggests a pattern of disease that’s not dissimilar to what we might see in influenza,” said Jeffery K. Taubenberger, who studied the infection in Spanish flu victims, including one exhumed more than 20 years ago from permafrost in northwestern Alaska.
Covid-19 most likely spreads via contact with virus-laden droplets expelled from an infected person’s cough, sneeze or breath.
Infection generally starts in the nose. Once inside the body, the coronavirus invades the epithelial cells that line and protect the respiratory tract, said Taubenberger, who heads the viral pathogenesis and evolution section of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases in Bethesda, Maryland. If it’s contained in the upper airway, it usually results in a less severe disease.
But if the virus treks down the windpipe to the peripheral branches of the respiratory tree and lung tissue, it can trigger a more severe phase of the disease. That’s due to the pneumonia-causing damage inflicted directly by the virus plus secondary damage caused by the body’s immune response to the infection.
“Your body is immediately trying to repair the damage in the lung as soon as it’s happening,” Taubenberger said. Various white blood cells that consume pathogens and help heal damaged tissue act as first-responders. “Normally, if this goes well, you can clear up your infection in just a few days.”
In some more-severe coronavirus infections, the body’s effort to heal itself may be too robust, leading to the destruction of not just virus-infected cells, but healthy tissue, Taubenberger said. Damage to the epithelium lining the trachea and bronchi can result in the loss of protective mucus-producing cells as well as the tiny hairs, or cilia, that sweep dirt and respiratory secretions out of the lungs.
“You have no ability to keep stuff out of the lower respiratory tract,” Taubenberger said. As a result, the lungs are vulnerable to an invasive secondary bacterial infection. Potential culprits include the germs normally harbored in the nose and throat, and the antibiotic-resistant bacteria that thrive in hospitals, especially the moist environments of mechanical ventilators.
A doctor examines a patient at the hospital screening unit of the CHU Pellegrin in Bordeaux, southwestern France. GEORGES GOBET—AFP/Getty Images
Secondary bacterial infections represent an especially pernicious threat because they can kill critical respiratory tract stem cells that enable tissue to rejuvenate. Without them, “you just can’t physically repair your lungs,” Taubenberger said. Damaged lungs can starve vital organs of oxygen, impairing the kidneys, liver, brain and heart.
“When you get a bad, overwhelming infection, everything starts to fall apart in a cascade,” said David Morens, senior scientific adviser to the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases. “You pass the tipping point where everything is going downhill and, at some point, you can’t get it back.”
That tipping point probably also occurs earlier in older people, as it does in experiments with older mice, said Stanley Perlman, a professor of microbiology and immunology at the University of Iowa in Iowa City, who has studied coronaviruses for 38 years.
Still, even healthy younger adults have succumbed to the illness. Li Wenliang, the 34-year-old ophthalmologist who was one of the first to warn about the coronavirus in Wuhan, died last month after receiving antibodies, antivirals, antibiotics, oxygen and having his blood pumped through an artificial lung.
Some people may be more genetically susceptible, possibly because they have a greater abundance of the distinctly shaped protein receptors in their respiratory epithelial cells that the virus targets, Taubenberger said. It’s also possible certain individuals have some minor immunodeficiency or other host factors that relate to underlying illnesses.
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fortune--2020-03-08--Empty offices, full homes: Coronavirus might strain the internet

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With more people working from home to avoid coronavirus, will the internet break? The short answer is probably not. The longer answer is that there will be disruptions.
To protect workers and help stem the spread of Covid-19, companies like Twitter and JPMorgan Chase are telling employees who can work from home to stay home. In all, 42 million Americans, about 29% of the U.S. workforce, are able to work from home. And as schools close to keep kids out of harm’s way, the pressure on home networks will grow.
“The weak link in the chain, where the system could get overloaded, is going to be the home broadband network,” said Lisa Pierce, a network expert with Gartner. “People will hit congestion, just like a highway, where the speed goes from 60 miles an hour to 20.”
Residences and neighborhoods served by lower bandwidth cable and copper-wire connections will be among the first affected. Whole families sharing a single Wi-Fi signal, all logging in at once to work or firing up TVs and tablets to stay connected and entertained, should also expect delays.
Strong backbone
On the whole, the big networks of fiber-optic cable that crisscross the country will continue to operate, hauling internet traffic between cities, according to U.S. phone service giants AT&T and Verizon Communications.
“As an engineer, I will tell you that we will have the capacity in our system that employees and customers need access to, at times like this,” said Jeff McElfresh, chief executive officer of AT&T, which oversees landline, wireless and TV services. “We can provide the ability to work where customers need to work and help them continue to be productive. It’s something I’m proud of. This is something we do right.”
The phone companies’ underlying confidence in their networks is due, in part, to the fact that the volume of traffic won’t necessarily change. What will change are the patterns. Traffic will originate less from offices with powerful connections and more from residential areas. Cable and phone companies that provide home broadband might develop bottlenecks at network nodes where multiple lines converge.
Among the biggest network cloggers, or bandwidth hogs, will be popular video and social-media services, like Netflix, YouTube, Facetime and Skype, according to Roger Entner, an analyst with Recon Analytics.
“Video is already 70% of all network traffic,” he said. “The moment you add in videoconferencing to all the shows the kids are watching because schools are closed, it could be a problem if everyone is trying to get on at the same time.”
Diffuse impact
Problems are likely to range from dropped connections to slow downloads or loss of video feeds. These are familiar conditions in climates where snow days keep folks at home and can test the limits of home broadband capacity.
They’ll vary by region and time of day, depending on traffic patterns, unlike single events that we all experience, for example the disruptions caused by the recent launch of Walt Disney’s Disney+ or glitches on Amazon Prime Day.
Even if home connections are robust, not every company is ready to handle a sudden surge of employees trying to log in to the office network from outside.
Many employers use virtual private networks, or VPNs, as secure, dedicated channels for remote users to access the same network they normally have at work.
Typically businesses allocate enough network capacity to accommodate the everyday needs of a small number of employees working remotely, but a large-scale shift could cause temporary trouble. Adding VPN capacity could take hours or days or maybe even weeks for some companies, according to networking experts.
Preparation can help. For a decade or more, big employers have been developing contingency plans and business-continuity strategies. Information-technology departments have developed checklists or backup procedures and employees have been briefed, or even participated in mock emergencies, to test remote connections at home or in temporary offices.
“We’re in a far better place than we were five or 10 years ago, in terms of network preparedness,” Pierce said.
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