fortune--2020-04-15--A ‘digital ceasefire’ is unrealistic during the pandemic

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The United Nations Under-Secretary General, Fabrizio Hochschild, is calling for a “digital ceasefire” during the coronavirus pandemic.
He writes for Vox, “How can we ask our health care workers…to continue containing the crisis while questioning whether vital equipment may be affected or shut down by a digital attack?”
Cybercriminals and malicious hackers are busier than ever. They’re springing nefarious schemes to turn a profit or spread lies at others’ expense. The World Health Organization is under unprecedented siege. China, Russia, and others are peddling disinformation of all sorts. I even received multiple frantic notes from readers targeted by a lately resurrected blackmail scam this week. (My advice remains the same: The scammers are bluffing; don’t pay them.)
Hochschild’s call to disarm builds on a similar plea issued last month by UN Secretary General António Guterres. “The fury of the virus illustrates the folly of war,” Guterres, whom Hochschild advises on matters of digital cooperation, said during a virtual press conference. “It is time to put armed conflict on lockdown and focus together on the true fight of our lives.”
The world is asking much of its frontline defenders in healthcare these days. It is a shame they must contend with disruptive threats like cyberattacks when so many lives are on the line. Yet, as much as I support Hochschild’s plea, it seems terribly unrealistic. No henchmen of adversarial intelligence services or money-grubbing fraudsters are going to abide by such a magnanimous international accord—even if governments or corporations pay it lip service.
I have more faith in grassroots “white hat” hacker coalitions that have coalesced recently to take matters into their own hands. We ought to spend less time on empty words and more time preparing for the worst.
Robert Hackett
Twitter: @rhhackett
Email: robert.hackett@fortune.com
THREATS
Business is slow. Even for cryptocurrency scammers. A new report out of Chainalysis, a cryptocurrency tracking firm, found that Bitcoin investment scams and Ponzi schemes are netting a third less revenue than usual amid the pandemic. Mostly, this is due to the price of Bitcoin having plunged since March. Meanwhile, dark web forums are offering discounts on hacking, spamming and other cybercriminal tools, presumably since their clientele's finances are hurting.
Lessened intelligence. The coronavirus pandemic appears to be affecting national security investigations. A top Justice Department official told the Wall Street Journal that the Federal Bureau of Investigation has failed as many as 10 times to obtain wire taps and business record requests used in terrorism and espionage investigations since the controversial, decades-old Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act expired on March 15. A report out of the Government Accountability Office also found that the Pentagon is failing to step up its cybersecurity defenses.
I'm the map, I'm the map. Apple released a tool to show how well people are social distancing, using data it collects from Apple Maps via people's iPhones. The graphs, useful for epidemiologists and government officials, follow the roll-out of a similar tool from Google. The smartphone makers are now working on "contact tracing" technology in a way that, everyone hopes, will preserve people's privacy. Questions remain about how successful their efforts will be.
By the numbers. Aiming to keep its travel-dependent business afloat, Airbnb says it has secured an $1 billion loan to be repaid over five years at 7.5% interest. Video streaming service Disney Plus has attracted 50 million subscribers in a mere five months—nearly a third of the reach of its more than two-decades-old rival Netflix. Facebook and Google are likely to face their first advertising revenue declines for the first time ever. And Amazon is riding high once again.
"We're breaking up."
ACCESS GRANTED
We're headed for the cyberpunk dystopia Philip K. Dick warned about. So argues defense tech reporter Kelsey Atherton for Slate. Decades of neoliberal policies have hollowed out the state and empowered corporations, he says, leading to vast inequality and "plutocratic insurgency," as one historian puts it to him. The pandemic, too, could siphon federal resources, eroding government and furthering the march of the private sector.
Where is the president in Blade Runner? Beneath the 1982 neo-noir’s trappings of genetically engineered human automatons is a story about corporate power over and indifference to life, alienation in the face of wealthy indifference to the plight of workers. Replace the Tyrell Corporation with Amazon and reframe the replicants as “essential services,” and suddenly you have a world of workers terrified that their jobs are inherently a death sentence—moving straight from fiction to reality.
FORTUNE RECON
The coronavirus pandemic may be a turning point for responsible business by Paul Polman
Peacock’s early preview kicks off Wednesday, with the national launch still on track for July by Radhika Marya
Why Intelsat’s 5G dreams are crashing to Earth by Aaron Pressman
People are paying real money to get into virtual Zoom nightclubs by Michelle Lhooq
Big Tech’s coronavirus “contact tracing” apps will only work if users buy in by Clay Chandler
Why artificial intelligence is so important in the coronavirus era by Jonathan Vanian
Amazon stock gets coronavirus boost to return to record high by Ryan Vlastelica
Alphabet’s Verily coronavirus testing efforts still relatively small one month later by Danielle Abril
ONE MORE THING
While many of us are hunkered down in quarantine, let us take a moment to be grateful that we have not been exiled to Arrakis, the dusty desert planet in Frank Herbert's sci-fi classic Dune. The first film stills from the upcoming book-inspired movie were just published by Vanity Fair, and they look starkly gorgeous.
Let's hope the adaptation is as spicy as fans crave.


fortune--2020-04-15--The IRS just launched ‘Get My Payment’ portal for tracking your stimulus check status

What to know before applying for gig work during the coronavirus pandemic

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Wondering if the check is in the mail?
The IRS has launched a new tool to enable those expecting stimulus checks to track the status of their payment. It will also offer “eligible people a chance to provide their bank account information so they can receive their payment more quickly rather than waiting for a paper check.” The IRS website states that this option will be unavailable if a paper check has already been scheduled.
However, while the portal was functioning early Wednesday, by mid-morning users who tried to log in were greeted with a message that read, “Due to high demand, you may have to wait longer than usual to access this site.” Other users reported that after being asked to wait, they were able to input their information, but then received a message reading “Payment Status Not Available” and were directed to a FAQ page.
This comes after the IRS last week launched a tool for those who do not pay income taxes—an estimated 44% of Americans—to file for their stimulus payments via a new web portal.
According to the IRS, tens of millions of stimulus checks have already gone out. The agency’s website states that “Eligible taxpayers who filed tax returns for either 2019 or 2018 and chose direct deposit of their refund will automatically receive an Economic Impact Payment of up to $1,200 for individuals or $2,400 for married couples and $500 for each qualifying child. Individuals who receive Social Security retirement, survivors or disability benefits, SSDI or who receive Railroad Retirement benefits but did not file a return for 2019 or 2018 will automatically receive a payment in the near future.”
The stimulus payments, as part of the CARES Act, are an attempt to soften the blow dealt by the economic shutdown by providing direct cash assistance to Americans. In addition, a $350 billion program administered by the SBA aims to help small-business owners, as well as freelancers and independent contractors who have been hurt by the shutdown. The SBA Paycheck Protection Program extends loans to eligible small businesses, but they can be forgiven and essentially turned into grants as long as businesses meet certain criteria. Another program is aimed at avoiding foreclosures by aiding homeowners with mortgage forbearance.
Updates on these and other programs can be found at www.irs.gov/coronavirus.
Wednesday, April 15: This story has been updated to reflect users who experienced issues accessing their information via the Get My Payment portal Wednesday morning.
More must-read finance coverage from Fortune:
—How to spend your stimulus check money, according to economists
—Trouble tracking your stimulus check? You aren’t alone
—How people are planning to spend their stimulus checks
—Excited to get your hands on that stimulus check? So are scammers
—Do I have to pay back the stimulus check money?
—Trump’s name will be on stimulus checks—after he denied wanting his name on stimulus checks
—Filing for unemployment benefits? What to know before you start your claim
—Debt collectors could seize your stimulus check before you have a chance to use it, lawmakers warn
Subscribe to Fortune’s Bull Sheet for no-nonsense finance news and analysis daily.


fortune--2020-04-15--Trump’s withdrawal of U.S. funding would make China WHO’s biggest benefactor

On Tuesday, as cases of COVID-19 infections in the U.S. sailed past 600,000 with 2,200 new deaths, President Donald Trump strode into the White House Rose Garden and announced he was cutting funding for the World Health Organization, suggesting the international health body was complicit in a cover-up of the coronavirus pandemic.
“Today I’m instructing my administration to halt funding of the WHO while a review is conducted to assess the WHO’s role in severely mismanaging and covering up the spread of the coronavirus,” Trump said, accusing the international organization of jeopardizing public health in order to appease Beijing.
Trump levied the same criticism at the WHO in a tweet last week. When asked for a response the next day, WHO head Tedros Adhanom denied Trump’s assertion that WHO plays favorites. “We see everybody equally. We want to see everybody equally. That’s what we want. That’s what we do because we belong to all member states equally.”
Nevertheless, Trump sees the funding freeze as a way to punish the WHO for its alleged “China centric” posturing, but doing so could actually give Beijing greater influence within the global health body since China is the WHO’s second-largest state benefactor.
Total authority?
According to the WHO, the U.S. this year contributed 22% of the organization’s membership dues, which are used to cover daily operations, making the U.S. the WHO’s single largest benefactor. In second place, accounting for 12% of the total, was China.
“As the organization’s leading sponsor, the U.S. has a duty to insist of full accountability,” Trump said, chiding the organization for its recommendation against travel restrictions on China throughout February; the WHO’s endorsement of such bans, the President said, could have saved “countless lives.” However, it’s unclear whether Trump will be able to simply put U.S. WHO funds on hold on his own.
According to Evan Hollander, a spokesperson for the House Appropriations Committee, the President “does not have the unilateral authority” to withhold funding for the WHO. Funding for the organization is approved by Congress, where Republicans control the Senate but not the House.
However, Trump might readily garner support for his plan. Last week, Sen. Lindsey Graham (R–S.C.) told Fox News he would leverage his position as chairman of the Senate Appropriations subcommittee on foreign operations to limit U.S. funding for the WHO, calling the organization deceptive “Chinese apologists.”
Default China
If the U.S. were to fully cut funding to the WHO, China would automatically become the organization’s primary member state sponsor.
“We now have a situation in which the U.S. is vacating a leadership role in the middle of the crisis,” Adam Kamradt-Scott, an associate professor of international security at the University of Sydney, told Bloomberg. “Nature abhors a vacuum. Politics abhors a vacuum even more.”
Speaking to journalists during a regular briefing Wednesday, China Foreign Ministry spokesperson Zhao Lijian warned that Trump’s action would “undermine international cooperation” and said that “China will as always support the WHO in playing an important role in international public health and global anti-epidemic response.”
WHO member states can make voluntary contributions to support specific crises. The President’s proposed budget for fiscal 2021 recommended cutting voluntary contributions to the WHO from $122 million to $58 million. By comparison, Trump also claims China only spent “roughly $40 million” on the WHO last year.
It’s not immediately clear what data Trump cited for China’s contributions. The WHO’s latest biennium budget report shows China’s mandatory and voluntary contributions as roughly $50 million in 2018. The U.S. is far out ahead, spending roughly $400 million.
More coronavirus coverage from Fortune:
—How Fortune 500 companies are utilizing their resources and expertise during the pandemic
—Inside the surreal “Mask Economy”: Price-gouging, bidding wars, and armed guards
—When will stimulus checks be deposited or mailed? Ensure yours is not delayed
—Job hunting during a pandemic: How laid-off tech workers are faring
—How South Korea is preparing for the first nationwide election of the coronavirus era
—We need to protect whistleblowers as the coronavirus opens the door for bad actors
—There are 32 authorized coronavirus tests so far—here’s how they differ
—PODCAST: COVID-19 might have upended the concept of the best companies of the year
—VIDEO: 401(k) withdrawal penalties waived for anyone hurt by COVID-19
Subscribe to Outbreak, a daily newsletter roundup of stories on the coronavirus pandemic and its impact on global business. It’s free to get it in your inbox.


fortune--2020-04-15--Amazon threatens to suspend deliveries in France over court order demanding coronavirus worker secur

Amazon threatens to suspend deliveries in France over court order demanding coronavirus worker security upgrade

Amazon.com Inc. threatened to stop activity at its fulfillment centers in France after a court order banned the sale of non-essential goods, concluding the retailer isn’t doing enough to protect staff from the Covid-19 pandemic.
The $1.1 trillion company was given 24 hours on Tuesday to comply with the ruling to reduce its activity to sell only essential items such as food and hygiene products, and to upgrade its health security procedures. The company faces fines of 1 million euros ($1.1 million) for each day’s delay.
Amazon said it was considering lodging an appeal but such a move wouldn’t suspend the order that will be enforced on Wednesday early afternoon. Amazon said the court’s ruling “leaves us perplexed” since it said it has provided employees with security measures.
“Our interpretation suggests that we may be forced to suspend the activity of our distribution centers in France,” Amazon said in a statement. “The court gave categories that are very general and create ambiguity that would be too hard to implement, this is a complex business to run” a spokeswoman for Amazon told Bloomberg.
Representatives from the CFDT and CGT labor unions told Bloomberg the company informed employees that the activity at the six French fulfillment centers may stop as soon as Wednesday and resume Tuesday next week. Employees will be on a partial unemployment scheme, with full pay, the unions said they were told by Amazon. The company didn’t immediately comment on employment details.
Pressure on the Seattle-based giant to upgrade its health security plans has increased across its fulfillment centers. In France several workers have been tested positive for Covid-19. Labor minister Muriel Penicaud demanded late last month an improvement to the working environment for the firm’s employees, saying that “protection conditions are insufficient.”
“We believe it’s good news. It will give us time to negotiate more seriously and upgrade health safety measures,” said CFDT labor union representative Julien Vincent. “Employees are going on partial unemployment but paid 100%, the company told us. We must focus on our work conditions.”
Amazon “evidently failed to comply with obligations to protect the health of employees,” judges said in their Tuesday ruling. The court also said the retail platform should carry out a more thorough evaluation of the coronavirus risks in its warehouses.
The U.S. giant’s share price has been one of the standout performers as the pandemic forces store closures, amplifying e-commerce demand. Earlier this week, Amazon said it would hire an additional 75,000 workers in the U.S. The company already filled 100,000 previously announced temporary and full-time positions.
More coronavirus coverage from Fortune:
—How Fortune 500 companies are utilizing their resources and expertise during the pandemic
—Inside the surreal “Mask Economy”: Price-gouging, bidding wars, and armed guards
—When will stimulus checks be deposited or mailed? Ensure yours is not delayed
—Job hunting during a pandemic: How laid-off tech workers are faring
—How South Korea is preparing for the first nationwide election of the coronavirus era
—We need to protect whistleblowers as the coronavirus opens the door for bad actors
—There are 32 authorized coronavirus tests so far—here’s how they differ
—PODCAST: COVID-19 might have upended the concept of the best companies of the year
—VIDEO: 401(k) withdrawal penalties waived for anyone hurt by COVID-19
Subscribe to Outbreak, a daily newsletter roundup of stories on the coronavirus pandemic and its impact on global business. It’s free to get it in your inbox.


fortune--2020-04-15--She figured out how Ford could manufacture coronavirus face shields

Good morning, Broadsheet readers! GlaxoSmithKline teams up with Sanofi on a coronavirus vaccine effort, small business owners turn to Bumble for financial relief, and we get a peek at one company manufacturing coronavirus supplies. Have a nice Wednesday.
– Women behind the scenes. There’s a whole host of corporations pitching in to make equipment to combat the coronavirus pandemic. In the latest issue of Fortune, writer Maria Aspan gives us a peek at one of those efforts: Ford’s shift from manufacturing automobiles to producing medical supplies.
Marcy Fisher, who normally oversees Ford’s global body exterior and interior engineering, is helping lead the project. One of the biggest puzzles she faced came in the form of a small elastic band that secures a plastic face shield to a medical worker’s head. When Ford set out to build the protective face coverings, it ran into an industry shortage.
Fisher’s solution, as Maria puts it, “was gloriously banal.” Fisher and her team repurposed the flexible rubber tubing or weather strips that normally seal car doors and windows to do the elastic’s job.
Within hours, they’d sent samples to a nearby emergency room for doctors to test. “It’s completely innovative, and it totally works,” said Erin Brennan, an emergency physician at a Detroit hospital, who tested the face shields.
As of this month, Ford is manufacturing 1 million face shields per week.
Now Fisher’s team is tackling a battery-powered, air-purifying respirator, which represents an area of “unmet need” in which Ford has “a lot of engineering depth,” Fisher says.
We know so many women are on the front lines of this crisis; it’s heartening learn about so many others who are fighting this war behind the scenes.
You can read Maria’s full story here.
Claire Zillman
claire.zillman@fortune.com
@clairezillman
Today’s Broadsheet was produced by Emma Hinchliffe.
ALSO IN THE HEADLINES
- Pharma joins forces. GlaxoSmithKline, led by CEO Emma Walmsley, teamed up with Sanofi to develop a coronavirus vaccine. Sanofi will provide the experimental vaccine, while Glaxo will contribute its adjuvant technology, which may allow more doses of the shot to be produced. Fortune
- Social responsibility. Facebook COO Sheryl Sandberg tells Forbes that she "takes [her] responsibility really, really seriously." That responsibility? Getting accurate information about COVID-19 to 2.26 billion people every day. Forbes
- Historic election. South Korea held the first national election of the global coronavirus era today. The country's newly-formed Women's Party put forward four candidates and needs 3% of the vote to secure a seat. It's the first time a feminist party has sought parliamentary seats in South Korea. Guardian
- IMF report. The IMF, led by Kristalina Georgieva, is predicting the worst economic downturn since the Great Depression. In a speech last week, Georgieva emphasized that "these are the times for which the IMF was created." Fortune
MOVERS AND SHAKERS: Nanci Caldwell, former CMO of PeopleSoft, and Elisa Steele, former CEO of Namely, join Procore Technologies' board of directors.
IN CASE YOU MISSED IT
- Banking on Bumble. As small-business owners struggle to navigate the Paycheck Protection Program, some are turning to grants offered by female-founded companies. Whitney Wolfe Herd's Bumble is giving a total of $1 million in grants to women-led businesses, while Spanx founder Sara Blakely's foundation will distribute $5,000 grants to female business owners. Bloomberg
- Slowed adoption. The coronavirus pandemic has halted fertility treatments—but it's also put many international adoptions in limbo. One North Carolina couple adopting two daughters from Chad can't return home because their daughters are not yet U.S. citizens. NPR
- Work divorce. During remote work—or intense, mid-crisis, in-person work—what happens to the work 'wives'? Employees are finding that something is missing from their professional lives without their work 'spouse' to relieve the daily grind. MEL Magazine
ON MY RADAR
What will COVID-19 do to pregnant women's mental health? Marie Claire
Glossier is making hand cream The Cut
The pissing contest between Trump and Cuomo is a travesty The Cut
PARTING WORDS
"If authors have any responsibilities in the face of disaster, the greatest of them is to bear witness."
-Writer Fang Fang, who chronicled the coronavirus lockdown in Wuhan


fortune--2020-04-15--Waiters in masks and staggered school times: How U.S. governors are planning for life after lockdown

U.S. states are creating separate and growing confederations to set common policies on coronavirus tests, tracking patients and setting standards for resuming social and economic life.
California Governor Gavin Newsom on Tuesday laid out rough benchmarks for reopening his state’s economy — and radically reshaping daily life — as he tried to bring other states into his West Coast coalition to fight the new coronavirus. The move came as New York Governor Andrew Cuomo, who has marshaled seven Northeastern states, sparred with President Donald Trump over who has final authority to lift stay-home orders and restart the U.S. economy. And in the Midwest, another group of states is considering its own unified effort.
The remarkable ad hoc efforts, while more concrete than any plans publicly advanced by the federal government, also raised the possibility of a nation split into discrete regions, with their own standards and timelines for easing stay-at-home orders. That could hamper the larger fight against a virus that has already killed more than 25,000 Americans, as experts warn that lifting restrictions too soon would risk another surge of infections.
“It would not be appropriate if a state says, ‘We need to be taking restraints off,’ with large numbers of cases that would then be exported to their neighbors and overwhelm their own health-care system,” said Robert Kim-Farley, a professor in the epidemiology department of the University of California at Los Angeles. “It’s important to be a good neighbor.”
Seven states still lack blanket stay-home orders and their residents could easily cross state lines to import or export the virus. And the partisan divide in America also raises the specter of a predominantly Republican consortium coming under pressure not to coordinate with the Democratic coasts.
“The virus doesn’t respect state borders, and people walk and drive across borders all the time,” said William Schaffner, professor of preventive medicine and infectious diseases at Vanderbilt University School of Medicine in Nashville, Tennessee. “If you have a regionally coordinated effort, that’s more likely to be successful.”
Newsom, who has allied with the Democratic governors of Oregon and Washington, avoided setting a timetable for easing restrictions that have crippled the economy. But he warned that when stay-home orders are relaxed, life will look quite different. Restaurants may reopen, he said, but the waiters may be wearing masks and gloves, and staff may check diners’ temperatures before allowing them inside. Schools may have to stagger start times to keep students from crowding classrooms. Mass gatherings, such as concerts or sporting events, are simply “not in the cards,” he said.
“Normal it will not be, at least until we have herd immunity and we have a vaccine,” Newsom said in a press conference.
Before orders are relaxed, Newsom said he would want to see coronavirus hospitalizations and intensive-care cases decline for several weeks. The state also needs to greatly increase its ability to test for the virus and assemble a network of thousands of people who can track new cases and trace the movements of infected people — a protection against further outbreaks.
“Let’s not make the mistake of pulling the plug too early, as much as we all want to,” he said.
Newsom said other Western state governors were also likely to join in the regional protocol. Conor Cahill, a spokesman for Colorado’s Jared Polis, told Bloomberg News the Democrat “would welcome a regional or coordinated national approach and has been in touch with several governors throughout the crisis.”
Sparring With Washington
Newsom, Cuomo and other governors appear determined to chart their own paths out of the lockdown, largely proceeding without coordinating with the White House.
Trump, who wants the economy functioning, has said his administration will issue guidance for governors who want to relax social-distancing practices. On Monday, he declared that “when somebody’s the president of the United States, the authority is total” and governors shouldn’t challenge his plans. Tuesday night, he said that some states could reopen almost immediately, but allowed that he would be “authorizing” them to do as they liked.
Cuomo earlier in the day said that the president’s assertion of primacy is simply wrong on constitutional grounds, a view that most scholars echo.
“This was the first battle: Do we want a king or do we want a president?” Cuomo said in a news conference. But the governor also said he didn’t plan to waste time debating the matter.
Staying Afloat
Cuomo’s consortium also includes New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Connecticut, Rhode Island and Delaware, all run by Democrats, and Massachusetts, whose governor is a Republican. A panel of officials from the states will begin meeting soon.
Decisions should be made in coordination, the governors said. “It doesn’t do me any good to have a bar closed in Greenwich, Connecticut, and it’s open right across the border,” said Governor Ned Lamont.
In the Midwest, governors are discussing ways to coordinate, said Iowa Governor Kim Reynolds. Reynolds, a Republican, said she has discussed what a Midwestern regional reopening could look like with counterparts in North Dakota, South Dakota, Wyoming, Missouri and Illinois.
“While we’ll look at it from a regional perspective and we’ll talk about collectively the metrics we’re using, each individual governor is going to look at their own state’s metrics,” she said.
‘Common Voice’
Illinois Governor J.B. Pritzker, the sole Democrat in the group, said Tuesday that he joined conversations in the past few days. “Speaking with a common voice may be a good move,” he said.
Republican governors must balance the best way of fighting the disease and the political risk of enraging a president for whom fealty is crucial.
Governor Mike DeWine, Republican of Ohio, said he talks frequently with nearby governors, but he said he doesn’t know whether there’ll be a formal collaboration.
“That consultation, sharing of ideas, is going to continue and is very important,” DeWine said on a live-streamed interview Monday with The Washington Post.
DeWine was among the earliest and most aggressive chief executives, canceling events and putting in place stay-home orders even as the president downplayed the pandemic. But he has dismissed any tension between the Trump administration and the states.
“This is not a confrontational issue between us and the White House,” DeWine told reporters Monday. “Just as we’ve worked together, we will continue to work together. Every state is different, and we’re going to have to lay out a plan, and I’m confident that the Ohio plan we lay out the White House will think it’s fine.”
More coronavirus coverage from Fortune:
—How Fortune 500 companies are utilizing their resources and expertise during the pandemic
—Inside the surreal “Mask Economy”: Price-gouging, bidding wars, and armed guards
—When will stimulus checks be deposited or mailed? Ensure yours is not delayed
—Job hunting during a pandemic: How laid-off tech workers are faring
—How South Korea is preparing for the first nationwide election of the coronavirus era
—We need to protect whistleblowers as the coronavirus opens the door for bad actors
—There are 32 authorized coronavirus tests so far—here’s how they differ
—PODCAST: COVID-19 might have upended the concept of the best companies of the year
—VIDEO: 401(k) withdrawal penalties waived for anyone hurt by COVID-19
Subscribe to Outbreak, a daily newsletter roundup of stories on the coronavirus pandemic and its impact on global business. It’s free to get it in your inbox.


fortune--2020-04-15--China data shows vast majority of asymptomatic coronavirus carriers never get sick

China for the first time publicized a breakdown of people testing positive for the novel coronavirus without outward signs of being sick, revealing that those among them who remain symptom-free throughout infection are in the majority.
Among 6,764 people who tested positive for infection without showing symptoms, only one fifth of them — 1,297 — have so far developed symptoms and been re-classified as confirmed cases, China’s National Health Commission spokesman Mi Feng said at a briefing in Beijing Wednesday.
Some 1,023 are still being monitored in medical quarantine to see if they develop symptoms. The rest — 4,444 — have been discharged from medical observation after recovering from the virus.
The phenomenon of asymptomatic transmission is a puzzling feature of the virus that’s allowed the pandemic to spread wider and faster than previous outbreaks. While researchers earlier thought that most patients ultimately end up developing symptoms, the indication from China’s data that a sizable group remains symptom-free throughout infection underscores the challenge of containing the widening pandemic.
Researchers are still struggling to understand asymptomatic cases: there’s a possibility that patients who appear to be symptom-free are actually just manifesting symptoms that doctors don’t know yet to look for. For months, a fever and dry cough were understood to be the disease’s main markers, and it’s only recently emerged that a loss of smell and taste is also a sign of infection. China has not disclosed the range of symptoms it looks for.
China continues to detect asymptomatic infections even after new confirmed cases dropped to zero for the first time in March. The virus, which emerged from the central Chinese city of Wuhan last December, has officially sickened some 82,000 and killed over 3,000 in the country.
The number of asymptomatic infections is likely higher than the 6,764 China has detected. These cases were found through efforts to test the contacts of confirmed patients. Otherwise, those who show no signs of being sick have no reason to seek out testing on their own.
Once found, asymptomatic patients are placed under isolated quarantine for monitoring and discharged only when they no longer tested positive for the virus. Those who develop symptoms during the two-week quarantine period will be re-classified as confirmed cases under China’s counting method and treated in hospital.
More coronavirus coverage from Fortune:
—How Fortune 500 companies are utilizing their resources and expertise during the pandemic
—Inside the surreal “Mask Economy”: Price-gouging, bidding wars, and armed guards
—When will stimulus checks be deposited or mailed? Ensure yours is not delayed
—Job hunting during a pandemic: How laid-off tech workers are faring
—How South Korea is preparing for the first nationwide election of the coronavirus era
—We need to protect whistleblowers as the coronavirus opens the door for bad actors
—There are 32 authorized coronavirus tests so far—here’s how they differ
—PODCAST: COVID-19 might have upended the concept of the best companies of the year
—VIDEO: 401(k) withdrawal penalties waived for anyone hurt by COVID-19
Subscribe to Outbreak, a daily newsletter roundup of stories on the coronavirus pandemic and its impact on global business. It’s free to get it in your inbox.


fortune--2020-04-15--With OPEC, Trump makes his favorite kind of deal: One where he gives nothing

Donald Trump just saved OPEC from the worst oil price war in history by offering cuts in U.S. production he didn’t have to make—because the coronavirus outbreak had already forced even bigger cutbacks. It wasn’t the first time this master of illusion landed a big deal by giving little or nothing.
In 1994, Donald Trump, his empire collapsing under crushing debt, was breakfasting at his Plaza Hotel with a group of investors from Hong Kong keen to purchase the French Renaissance landmark, then on the brink of foreclosure. Also present was Barbara Corcoran, founder of real estate brokerage firm the Corcoran Group, and now a star of CNBC’s Shark Tank. Corcoran recounts that Trump barely mentioned the Plaza, and began touting an empty 77-acre tract along the Upper West Side called Riverside South––a property Trump was about to lose to lender Chase Manhattan––as “the greatest piece of land in the world,” and the perfect Manhattan trophy.
Trump’s pitch was so magnetically irresistible that within weeks the Hong Kong contingent bought Riverside South, a place they’d never heard of before meeting the Donald, and handed Trump 30% ownership in exchange for a relatively small cash contribution. Trump eventually parlayed his stake in Riverside South into what may be his empire’s most lucrative holdings: office buildings in Midtown Manhattan and downtown San Francisco worth over $1 billion, valuing Trump’s share at more than $350 million.
The oil crisis struck in mid-March, after Russia refused to make the deep cuts in output demanded by OPEC leader Saudi Arabia, reductions needed to support prices hit by sagging demand from motorists and factories hamstrung by the outbreak. To pressure Moscow, the Saudis raised their production by 3 million barrels a day, or around 30%, flooding the market with oil. That gambit drove West Texas Intermediate crude to a 48-year low of $20 a barrel by late March, from around $60 at the start of 2020. By early April, Russia caved, and the new rebel emerged as Mexico. Like Russia, Mexico isn’t an OPEC member, but belongs to OPEC+, the extended group of 10 nations that in recent years have joined with the 14 OPEC stalwarts in imposing jointly agreed quotas on output.
OPEC+ controls almost 50% of global oil production, so if its members kept squabbling, the world faced a new era of $20 crude. That scenario spelled disaster for the industry that supports 9.8 million American jobs, especially the shale pioneers that have made the U.S. the world’s largest producer. According to research firm IHS Markit, America’s shale wells are typically profitable at prices of $50 and higher. In early April, big frackers were dumping crude in the cash market for under $10 a barrel.
Trump, who’s frequently denounced OPEC as a dangerous “cartel” that raids Americans’ wallets by inflating prices at the pump, rushed to support OPEC in the name of saving American jobs. His dealmaking chronology is clear from his comments at his daily coronavirus press briefings and statements from officials in Saudi Arabia, Russia, and Mexico. The Saudis were demanding that Mexico lower its output by 350,000 barrels per day, and Mexico was offering just 100,000. Both sides were obstinate. Trump viewed a path to a breakthrough. On Thursday, April 9, he called Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador and said the U.S. would furnish a reduction of 250,000 barrels per day to bridge the two sides. As the President stated at his daily briefing the next day, “In speaking to the President [of Mexico], they have a limit, and OPEC has a different limit. So I thought what I’d do, the U.S. will help Mexico along, and Mexico will reimburse us at some date in the future,” later adding, “We’re trying to get Mexico over a barrel.”
On Friday, Trump held a three-way call with Russian President Vladimir Putin and King Salman of Saudi Arabia to sell his solution. It worked. Over the weekend, López Obrador praised Trump for “very generously” saying that he “was going to help us,” and a López Obrador lieutenant lauded the President’s offer as “historic.” On Easter Sunday, OPEC+ announced a new agreement among the 24 nations, reducing their total output by 9.7 barrels per day, or 13% of global production, four times OPEC’s curb in the financial crisis.
Trump’s coup is being applauded far and wide. Saudi energy minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman exulted that “OPEC is up, running, and alive!” and declared himself “more than happy.” The American Petroleum Institute, the industry’s trade group, lavishly praised Trump’s role in reaching the accord. Even free-marketers such as energy sage Daniel Yergin praised Trump in a TV interview for “pivoting” from his aversion to OPEC and coming to see the oil price collapse as “a national security issue, an employment issue.” Yergin added, “This has to be the biggest and most complex deal of Trump’s career, a triumph that saved the world’s most important commodity from a job-killing collapse just as the coronavirus ravaged the world economy…When he just jumped in a week ago, we were talking about oil going to $10, and now $30 is where it looks like it’s going to be.”
Jim Burkhard, an analyst who works at IHS Markit alongside Yergin, told Fortune, “The truce would not have happened without the forcefulness of Trump’s engagement. Saudi Arabia would not give Mexico an exception. It was historic to get Saudi Arabia, Russia, and the U.S. on the same page.”
Big deals normally require big concessions. So what exactly did Trump deliver to land this one? According to press reports, Putin pressed Trump to impose legally enforceable quotas on U.S. oil producers. Trump declined—and got away with it. Although the federal government could technically supersede the antitrust laws and mandate that individual companies limit their output to establish an OPEC-like ceiling, no mechanism exists for doing so. Rather, Trump declared at a press briefing the week the deal was negotiated that “the cuts have already been made…because we’re a market-driven economy.” He was simply describing a stricken marketplace. The coronavirus crisis had pummeled sales to the point where U.S. producers, unable to find buyers and watching storage tanks fill to the brim, shuttered wells and slowed the flow of oil. U.S. producers furnished the cutbacks Trump promised not by government edict, but by acting on their own. Those cutbacks were in the cards whether Mexico, Russia, and Saudi Arabia ended their standoff or kept battling.
That’s precisely the what the data is showing. According to the Energy Information Administration, U.S. crude output dropped a staggering 600,000 barrels a day the week ended April 3 alone, from a near-record 13 million barrels a day to 12.4 million, three-times the number Trump promised. At the G20 meeting in Riyadh on Friday, April 10, the day Trump was relating how his maneuver is helping rescue the U.S. and world economies, U.S. Energy Secretary Dan Brouillette stated that stateside production would drop by 2 million barrels per day through 2020, sans government meddling, 10 times the quantity needed to satisfy Trump’s pledge.
In securing the deal, the Trump administration has put nothing in writing. It hasn’t established a benchmark against which the 200,000 barrel a day cut would be measured. No procedure has been established for Mexico to “reimburse” the U.S. for the hypothetical 200,000 barrel per day reduction. In fact, a U.S. government source close to the negotiations told Fortune that Trump’s promises “are informal, as the reductions in the U.S. are being driven by the free market.” Who else but Trump could make a phantom concession look like a sacrifice worthy of moving the world’s most stubborn combatants to trade war for peace?
However, the OPEC accord has a big potential downside, and Trump might live to regret it. The deal sets the longest-lasting guidelines in OPEC history. Starting on July 1, the reductions fall from 9.7 to 7.7 million barrels per day until year-end, then taper to 5.8 million from the start of 2021 until April of 2022. Hence, if the agreement holds, world supplies would still be more than 7% below late-2019 levels two years from now. If world economies bounce back, those constraints could lift oil prices––crude sold at over $75 as recently as mid-2018––back to inflated levels that could damage America’s economy.
Another danger: The big oil states have a vehicle for imposing anticompetitive quotas—the agencies that regulate the industry. The drive to find common cause with OPEC, spearheaded by Trump, has emboldened officials to push for state-imposed limits on production. One of the three commissioners of the Texas Railroad Commission, the agency that despite its name regulates energy, has called for an across-the-board 10% cut to output as a tool for supporting prices, chiefly for endangered frackers, and leaders of Big Shale are lobbying for even deeper curbs.
That policy is a bad idea. It would support over-leveraged frackers and delay the consolidation that would help the industry reduce its costs. Trump’s ploy to stop an oil collapse on top a shutdown across the world economy is likely the right move. But he’s also right in branding OPEC as America’s enemy. And America’s enemy it will be again. So far, Trump hasn’t abandoned this commitment to leave markets free to set oil prices. He just invoked some wizardry to make the U.S. appear to join the “managed markets” crowd.
Along with that parcel of land on the West Side, this one, too, is a deal for the ages.
More must-read finance coverage from Fortune:
—Are SBA small-business loans running out? What we know so far
—CEOs David Solomon and Brian Moynihan stand alone on Wall Street—literally
—College-educated investors may be more likely to fall for coronavirus scams
—Stocks have gained 25% since their March lows—but the math doesn’t add up
—How Fortune 500 companies are utilizing their resources and expertise during the pandemic
—Listen to Leadership Next, a Fortune podcast examining the evolving role of CEOs
—VIDEO: 401(k) withdrawal penalties waived for anyone hurt by COVID-19
Subscribe to Fortune’s Bull Sheet for no-nonsense finance news and analysis daily.


fortune--2020-04-15--If you’ve been a little busy lately, here’s what’s going on with the 2020 election

The United States has officially galloped into general election season, and the first full week of the race between President Donald Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden is underway.
Giddyup.
In a pre-COVID-19 world, we’d likely see Trump pick up the pace of his campaign rally appearances in key states across the country. We’d hear the stories about people lining up outside of various arenas in order to hear the President riff for hours about “witch hunts” and “sleepy Joe.” Surely some of his more outrageous lines would grab him massive amounts of earned media.
Biden would also tour the country, devoting himself to town hall meetings with potential voters where moments of relatable folksy charm would be juxtaposed with moments of calculated (or uncalculated) toughness (“look, fat”).
The election would be the main driver of news for the next six months. CNN’s graphics package would be over the top. The debates would likely break viewership records. Then the nation would head to the polls in November.
Clearly, that’s not how things are going to happen this time around. Both candidates are stuck in place, as social-distancing measures are enforced in most states for the foreseeable future.
With nearly 2,000 Americans dying of the COVID-19 virus each day, overt campaigning appears crass, and each candidate must now reposition themselves as a quasi-wartime chief. As 16 million Americans find themselves newly unemployed, many across the country have been forced to worry about immediate survival needs: how to pay rent and feed their families. The idea of devoting time to a presidential election feels impossible.
A quick look at mass media betrays the political confusion: “Somehow, There’s Still an Election,” reads a cheeky New York Times headline. “The Constitution will be in tatters if America holds no election this year,” reads an opinion piece, already presuming the worst. This weekend, Michelle Obama, meanwhile, introduced a new initiative to expand absentee voting.
So what’s going on with this election, anyway? We answer some burning questions.
Will the election even happen?
It is incredibly unlikely that the presidential election, slated for Tuesday, Nov. 3, will be canceled or even postponed. This date is set by federal law, and President Donald Trump has no power to move it. Congress would have to pass a law with a date change, and that seems highly improbable with a Democratically controlled House.
A presidential election has never before been canceled or postponed in the United States. Elections took place in 1916 and 1944, both during World Wars. The Spanish Flu occurred right in the middle of President Woodrow Wilson’s term, but Congressional elections still occurred. In many cases quarantines were lifted just five days before the polls opened, and turnout was incredibly low, at about 40% (it had been 50% during the 1914 midterms).
In recent years, hurricanes in Miami and New Orleans have led to the delay of mayoral elections by a few weeks. The attacks on Sept. 11, 2001, took place on the day of a New York City mayoral primary, which was subsequently delayed by two weeks.
Even if a date change does occur, the 20th amendment mandates that “the terms of the President and the Vice President shall end at noon on the 20th day of January.” Even if there were no election, President Trump and Vice President Mike Pence would be forced to vacate the White House.
Who would replace them?
That’s a good question with a complicated answer.
Under normal circumstances the Speaker of the House, Nancy Pelosi, would become President. But without reelection, her term is set to expire on Jan. 3, 2021, along with every other member of the House. About one-third of Senators will see their terms expire.
The next in line for the presidency is the president pro tempore of the Senate, currently held by Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa).
This is where things get funky.
There are 23 seats held by Republicans that will expire this year, and only 12 held by Democrats. That means that without an election Democrats would gain control of the Senate and could nominate their own president pro tempore, a person who would then ascend to the presidency. Except…some states have rules in place that allow governors to name temporary fill-ins for empty Senate seats, so that could also change the balance of the Senate.
In short, it would get very messy very quickly, and there would likely be a long holdup as the changes are litigated in the courts and on a state-by-state basis.
Okay, so canceling the elections would be way too messy. But how will we vote if we’re sheltering in place?
That’s the million-dollar question.
The ideal outcome would be that social-distancing measures do their job and countrywide testing is available come November so the general election can take place as it would in any other year.
But that might not happen.
This is where the electoral college comes into play. The statute requiring a presidential election states that “the electors of President and Vice President shall be appointed, in each State, on the Tuesday next after the first Monday in November.” That leaves a lot of discretion to the states: There is no constitutional provision or federal law that requires the electoral college to vote based on how the population cast their votes. The electoral college could technically cast their votes without the state’s population even participating. Theoretically, a state could opt to pick electoral college members that they know would vote along party lines.
This, however, is very theoretical and unlikely. Every state in the country has opted to use a popular election to pick their electoral college since the 1860s, and states would have to change their own legislation to end that.
There are also fears that some districts may remain under strict shelter-in-place orders during the election while others are allowed to go out and vote: That could be enough to sway results in some states.
I’ve been hearing a lot about this vote-by-mail idea…
Voting by mail appears to be the most promising contingency plan right now.
Over the weekend, Michelle Obama advocated that states allow all voters who wish to send their ballots in by mail to do so.
“We know that barriers to voting existed before this crisis, especially for young people and communities of color,” Obama said in a statement. “Expanding access to vote-by-mail, online voter registration, and early voting are critical steps for this moment—and they’re long overdue. There is nothing partisan about striving to live up to the promise of our country; making the democracy we all cherish more accessible; and protecting our neighbors, friends, and loved ones as they participate in this cornerstone of American life.”
President Trump, meanwhile, has spoken out against the idea. “I think mail-in voting is horrible; it’s corrupt,” he said at a press conference last week. When a reporter pointed out that the President had voted by mail in the Florida election last month, he said he did it because he was “allowed to.” There is a difference between sending in a ballot while one is out of the state and sending one in while in the state, he said.
“And you get thousands and thousands of people sitting in somebody’s living room signing ballots all over the place. No…I think if you vote you should go, and even the concept of early voting is not the greatest thing,” Trump said.
There is no widespread evidence of voter fraud in the United States, and the President’s own commission on voter fraud disbanded without finding any evidence. A study of absentee ballot fraud by News21 found just 491 alleged instances between 2000 and 2012.
The President may not receive the support of his party on this issue. Republican governors like Florida’s Ron DeSantis rely heavily on it. Commonly called absentee voting and allowed by 31 states, voting by mail is often used by those who won’t be in town on Election Day or have a disability that would make it difficult for them to vote in person. In most states, a voter has to meet certain qualifications in order to receive an absentee ballot.
But there are currently five states—Colorado, Hawaii, Oregon, Washington, and Utah—that allow all voters to cast their vote by mail, and at least 21 other states use vote-by-mail in some races, mostly in more local elections like school board seats.
On Sunday, Virginia Gov. Ralph Northam signed legislation into effect that would make Election Day a holiday, allow for voting without an ID, and let anyone participate in early voting starting 45 days before the election without any stated reason. Last week, New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo announced that all New York residents would be allowed to vote in the primary election by absentee ballot. He has not yet made a decision about the general election.
The Postal Service, however, is facing its own equity crisis, and some question whether it will even be able to stay afloat long enough to allow for a vote-by-mail.
Primary? I thought you said Joe Biden was the Democratic nominee…
Presumptive Democratic nominee. He won’t be the official nominee until the Democratic National Convention convenes in August.
Many states haven’t voted yet, and while Bernie Sanders has suspended his election, he has not dropped out. That means his name will still be on ballots.
Sanders has specifically asked his supporters to cast a vote in his favor, because although he will advise his delegates to vote on behalf of Joe Biden at the Democratic Convention, he explained last week that he wants to harness their collective power to advocate for a more progressive Democratic agenda.
Sanders, however, is not the sole reason primaries will continue. A number of other Democratic candidates who have suspended their races also remain on the ballot.
Still, turnout will likely be low owing to COVID-19 fears and a presumed nominee. In Wisconsin last Tuesday, before Sanders had even dropped out of the race, turnout, including mail-in ballots, was very low. Some districts reported 10-point drops from 2016.
Are the conventions still happening?
Republicans say they’re continuing to plan their convention as though it will happen in Charlotte, N.C., this August. Democrats have pushed their convention from July to late August but say things will otherwise be business as usual in Milwaukee.
Does Joe Biden have a plan to combat COVID-19 if he’s elected?
Biden wrote an opinion piece for the New York Times Monday morning which broadly outlined some of his thinking around COVID-19.
He would continue social distancing while the Department of Health and Human Services works on establishing widespread testing for the virus and its antibodies around the country. President Trump said during a press conference last week that he did not think widespread testing was necessary to “reopen” the country’s businesses.
Biden also said he would make sure health care and frontline workers were prepared for multiple flare-ups of the outbreak.
Biden previously released a more detailed health care plan, describing how he would bolster hospital budgets and make sure they are prepared for any future COVID-19 waves.
More politics coverage from Fortune:
—How Fortune 500 companies are utilizing their resources and expertise during the pandemic
—Joe Biden’s health care plan for the coronavirus and beyond
—Coal miners’ work is “essential” during the coronavirus crisis, but is their safety?
—Why the Fed’s move to buy corporate America’s junk bonds is so significant
—Listen to Leadership Next, a Fortune podcast examining the evolving role of CEOs
—WATCH: As unemployment skyrockets, the labor market’s future looks grim
Get up to speed on your morning commute with Fortune’s CEO Daily newsletter.


fortune--2020-04-15--Coronavirus fallout: Most CFOs see a slow return to business as ‘near-normal’

This is the web version of CEO Daily. To get it delivered to your inbox, sign up here.
Good morning. David Meyer here in Berlin, filling in for Alan.
European authorities this morning recommended that the lifting of lockdown measures should take place gradually across the EU, with every action being carefully monitored for its impact. “The restart of economic activity should be phased in carefully,” said European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen—a former economics student turned physician—at a press conference.
Judging by new polls from Deloitte and PwC, chief financial officers in the U.S. are also anticipating a slow-and-steady return to something approaching normality. Deloitte’s survey, conducted between April 8 and April 10, found nearly 60% of CFOs thought their operations might return to “near-normal” by the end of the year, with only 12% being bullish enough to anticipate a recovery by the end of this quarter.
PwC’s poll, conducted a couple days earlier, saw 61% of respondents say a return to “business as usual” may be possible within three months, if COVID-19 were to end immediately. Of course, the pandemic won’t just vanish overnight—and, as a Gallup poll conducted in early April made clear, a mere 20% of Americans would immediately return to their normal activities once restrictions are lifted. More than 70% would first wait and see what happens with the spread of the virus.
The professional services firms’ surveys hint at the hits businesses expect to take. Two-thirds of PwC’s respondents may defer or cancel planned investments in facilities, IT, workforce and so on. Just over a quarter said they anticipated layoffs—two weeks ago, only 16% were expecting to do the same. According to Deloitte’s poll, a quarter of CFOs say at least 30% of their workforce is working at less than half capacity.
Here’s PwC chief clients officer Amity Millhiser: “Companies are cutting costs and putting planned investments in technology, workforce and capital expenditures on hold while they try to weather an unprecedented economic storm. Before this pandemic hit, many businesses were focused on long-term growth. Now they are being forced to think short-term and protect liquidity.”
More news below—and be sure to read Maria Aspan’s deep piece on how Ford is pivoting from vehicle to ventilator production during the crisis. And not just ventilators, either—its airbag material is being repurposed for reusable gowns for medical staff protection.
David Meyer
@superglaze
david.meyer@fortune.com
TOP NEWS
Bank profits
The first big-bank earnings reports of the coronavirus crisis are in, and there's a common theme: profits are way down, thanks the need for setting aside billions of dollars to cope with looming loan defaults. JPMorgan and Wells Fargo's Q1 results yesterday set the pace, knocking the former's share price by around 3% and the latter's by around 4%. Later today, Bank of America, Goldman Sachs and Citi will report their earnings; Morgan Stanley follows tomorrow. Wall Street Journal
Global markets
Following a five-day rally, European markets dipped this morning as Q1 results continue to reflect the damage wrought by the crisis. Reflecting a similar drop in the Hang Seng earlier, the Stoxx Europe 600 fell by more than 1.3% after the day's open. U.S. futures suggest a similar fall. Reuters
WHO funding
President Trump says he is following through with his threat to withdraw U.S. funding from the World Health Organization, while his administration reviews the WHO and China's "role in severely mismanaging and covering up the spread of coronavirus." Bill Gates says the move is as "dangerous as it sounds." As reports continue to demonstrate, China's secrecy over what was happening there probably did briefly delay the global response, but the U.S. leadership still squandered nearly two months of preparation time after the coronavirus's pandemic potential became clearly recognized. CNN
Oil demand
The COVID-19 crisis is hitting the fossil fuel industry with a major shock that is now being quantified by the International Energy Agency. The IEA said today that April's oil demand is down 29 million barrels per day, compared with a year ago. It said: "Even assuming that travel restrictions are eased in the second half of the year, we expect that global oil demand in 2020 will fall by 9.3 million barrels a day versus 2019, erasing almost a decade of growth." Fortune
AROUND THE WATER COOLER
Chinese VC
China's venture capital market is being transformed by the coronavirus crisis, Fortune's Eamon Barrett reports: "VC investment in the country’s tech sector shrunk 30% in the first quarter of the year, with VCs funneling $16.8 billion into tech enterprises during the first three months, down from $24 billion in the same period last year. The total number of deals contracted too, falling 45% to 634." Fortune
Bezos richer
Amazon's stock price rose 5.3% to a record level yesterday, lifting Jeff Bezos's net worth to $138.5 billion. Shares in Walmart have also advanced during the crisis, making the Walton family richer. As this piece notes, the ultra-rich are in fact ramping up borrowing so as to make more money in what seems like a cheap market. Fortune
Grounds for optimism
Another winner in the crisis: the coffee sector. Roasters have reportedly been struggling to meet demand from American and European consumers who have been stockpiling—and who are of course spending a lot of time at home right now. Arabica-bean futures have risen 20% since the start of February. Financial Times
Grocery demand
The COVID-19 crisis is a trial by fire for the British grocery/logistics giant Ocado, as Fortune's Jeremy Kahn reports. Ocado's robotic warehouses are in overdrive to cope with soaring demand. The surge has not come without problems—in mid-March, Ocado had to shutter its website for almost a week, in order to deal with the overload—but investors seem confident that the automation-focused outfit can capitalize on the current moment. Fortune
This edition of CEO Daily was edited by David Meyer.


fortune--2020-04-15--‘Black April’: IEA warns of ‘staggering’ demand drop in global oil markets

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The oil sector is in the midst of a month that will likely go down in the history books.
Demand for oil in April is forecast to drop by a record 29 million barrels per day (b/d), the International Energy Agency said Tuesday, part of a set of dire estimates that executive director Fatih Birol described as “staggering.”
“I believe, in a few years time, when we look back on 2020, we may well see it was the worst year in the history of global oil markets. And during that terrible year, the second quarter may well have been the worst of the lot. And during that quarter, April may well have been the worst month,” said Birol, on a call with reporters following the agency’s release of its monthly oil report.
“It may well go as ‘Black April,’ in the history of [the] oil industry.”
The IEA estimates total global oil demand for the year overall will drop by a record 9.3 million b/d, even with a recovery forecast for the second half of the year.
Prices fell sharply on Tuesday morning after the IEA announcement, with WTI dropping to a fresh 18-year low of $19.68/barrel, down 2.1% on the day by mid-morning London time. Brent was down 3.6% on the day, at $28.54/barrel.
April is forecast to see the most dramatic fall, as it coincides with the largest expanse of lockdowns worldwide and arrives before cuts by OPEC+ and other oil-producing nations go into effect in May.
With 100% compliance, those cuts could together total 10.7 million b/d from OPEC+. Another 3.5 million to 3.6 million b/d in cuts are slated to come from non-OPEC producers as part of a G20 deal, including the U.S., Canada, and Norway, according to IEA estimates.
Those OPEC+ cuts, agreed to earlier this week, are enough to take out a tenth of global oil supply, ending a monthlong price war that sent prices plunging to 18-year lows—and further devastated a sector that was already facing a historic drop in demand.
But even with those cuts, the market is facing a dire year. May is not forecast to be much of an improvement, with an estimated 26 million b/d fall compared with the same month last year, the IEA said.
Despite the cuts, Birol noted that storage was still tight—with the agency warning the sector could still run out of space by this summer—and prices could sink still lower, despite the cuts.
“In my view we lost two very important months in the oil industry, and we may well see prices getting some more downward pressure in the next weeks or months to come,” he said.
Together, this year’s drop will essentially wipe out the oil demand growth over the previous decade, Birol said.
Birol also warned against looking for a silver lining in the historic drop in oil demand.
“We expect this year there will be a huge decline in global CO2 emissions,” he said. “But in my view this is not a reason to celebrate, because this decline is happening because of economic meltdown, and the energy industry is in many areas almost collapsing, and people are losing their jobs.”
A poorly managed recovery, Birol added, could result in a sharp rebound in emissions.
In 2009, during the financial crash, emissions declined, he noted—only to rebound fourfold in the year to follow.
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fortune--2020-04-15--The coronavirus crisis is fintech’s biggest test yet—and greatest opportunity to go mainstream

This article is part of a Fortune Special Report: Business in the Coronavirus Economy—a look at the impact of the pandemic on more than 50 industries.
In the wake of the Great Recession, as lawmakers passed the Dodd-Frank legislation to rein in an ignominious financial industry, one paragraph of the law also validated a rebel contingent of reform-minded entrepreneurs. The passage mandated that banks must make consumers’ data available to them “in an electronic form.” And so was born the fintech industry.
Now, as the novel coronavirus presents the world with its biggest economic challenge in more than a decade, fintech is having a moment of truth. Companies like SoFi, Robinhood, Chime, and others were built on promises of providing consumers and businesses with easier access to money in all its forms—investments, credit, person-to-person payments—via the Internet, and often without dealing with a brick-and-mortar bank. With the global economy largely on pause, millions of people abruptly out of work, and thousands of bank branches shuttered, the time for fintech to deliver on those promises has arrived. As the U.S. government passed a $2 trillion stimulus package in March, including forgivable small-business loans and $1,200 checks for Americans, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin stipulated that “any fintech lender will be authorized to make these loans”—a historic first. In April, these platforms earned further validation when the Internal Revenue Service allowed eligible recipients to elect to receive stimulus payments electronically—through Square’s Cash App, for instance, or Venmo—rather than by paper check.
Illustration by Shawna X for Fortune
PayPal, Square, and other fintech players are heeding the call to help. In between calls with the Treasury Department, Dan Schulman, PayPal’s CEO, has been holding daily videoconferences with employees from his home office in California. “One of the things I’m telling them is, this is our time,” he tells Fortune via Skype. Even before the IRS began disbursing stimulus money, Chime, the largest so-called challenger bank in the U.S., went out on a $20 million limb—giving more than 100,000 customers immediate access to as much as $1,200 through an interest-free payday advance. “We felt that this could create some sort of industry movement,” says Chris Britt, Chime’s CEO.
Indeed, consumers holed up at home are relying on financial apps in record numbers. New sign-ups at PayPal, along with its peer-to-peer payment app Venmo, have been double the pre-pandemic norm on recent days. They’re also using the apps in ways they weren’t designed for, such as to donate money to struggling individuals or to fund needed equipment for health care workers—totaling tens of millions of dollars. When Taylor Swift, the pop star, recently sent a surprise $3,000 “gift” to dozens of her fans who’d lost jobs or income as a result of the coronavirus, she did it via PayPal. It’s no coincidence that Venmo payments using the medical-mask emoji surged 375% in March, according to the company.
The crisis has become a proof-of-concept for fintech, one likely to change the way people bank and move their money even after they can visit a teller in person again. Says Zach Perret, CEO of Plaid, a startup whose software powers virtually all the major U.S. fintech apps (and which Visa recently agreed to acquire): “This shutdown time, I’ll suspect we’ll look back and say this was one in which digitalization really accelerated.”
Clarification: This article has been updated to reflect that Visa’s acquisition of Plaid is not yet complete.
More must-read finance coverage from Fortune:
—Are SBA small business loans running out? What we know so far
—CEOs David Solomon and Brian Moynihan stand alone on Wall Street—literally
—College educated investors may be more likely to fall for coronavirus scams
—Stocks have gained 25% since their March lows—but the math doesn’t add up
—How Fortune 500 companies are utilizing their resources and expertise during the pandemic
—Listen to Leadership Next, a Fortune podcast examining the evolving role of CEO
—VIDEO: 401(k) withdrawal penalties waived for anyone hurt by COVID-19
Subscribe to Fortune’s Bull Sheet for no-nonsense finance news and analysis daily.


fortune--2020-04-15--From V-8s to ventilators: How Ford is pivoting during the coronavirus pandemic

For Marcy Fisher, one of the global pandemic’s biggest and most urgent recent headaches involved a small piece of elastic.
On March 20, Fisher, a Ford Motor lifer who normally oversees the automaker’s global body exterior and interior engineering, became one of about 200 Ford executives and employees facing an urgent new mandate: How could the country’s largest automakers, their massive production lines idled by the threat of spreading infections, pivot into producing desperately needed medical supplies?
Crosstown rival General Motors had already jumped into action, hammering out a partnership with ventilator specialist Ventec Life Systems. Ford CEO Jim Hackett and his deputies consulted with experts at the Mayo Clinic, a medical supplier, and the White House, which was agitating—loudly—for the automakers to get involved. Soon they were strategizing with their counterparts at General Electric and 3M.
While those more complicated devices would take weeks or months to produce, Fisher’s team started with one of the most basic of supplies: the plastic face shields that medical workers use to protect themselves from patients’ infected coughs and other airborne health hazards. Within a day she had a viable design and was talking to suppliers about getting the material to make hundreds of thousands more. The plastic part was simple enough. But when it came to the elastic band that secures the shield onto someone’s head, Ford “ran into a big industry shortage,” Fisher recalls.
The solution, when it came, was gloriously banal. At 4 a.m. on March 26, one of Ford’s suppliers opened up its plant and started extruding a version of the flexible rubber tubing, or weather strips, that you’ll more normally find sealing car doors and windows. “By 8 a.m. we had a prototype,” Fisher says. Within hours, her team was dropping off samples at local hospitals for ER doctors to vet. Within days, Ford had manufactured 100,000 of the final products; by mid-April, it was making 1 million per week. And the elastic substitute? “It’s completely innovative, and it totally works,” says Erin Brennan, an emergency physician at a Detroit hospital, who tested the face shields. “This team has been awesome.”
A worker at a Ford subsidiary plant in Plymouth, Mich., assembles a face shield. Courtesy of Ford Motor Co.
But that was the easy part. The rest of Ford’s high-speed efforts to turn itself into a medical manufacturer—including a promise to produce 50,000 ventilators by July 4—will be even more complicated and subject to much greater scrutiny.
Ford’s “Project Apollo,” named for the scrappy rescue of the Apollo 13 astronauts, involves cross-industry partnerships with GE, 3M, and many smaller suppliers, as well as the willing participation of more than 750 United Auto Workers members who will operate Ford’s retooled factories. Besides face shields and ventilators, it will yield medical supplies including masks, gowns, and respirators. Few of these devices are simple to design, source components for, or manufacture—especially under the pandemic’s life-and-death deadlines.
“Lives are at stake,” says Jim Baumbick, the Ford vice president of enterprise product line management, who’s overseeing the automaker’s efforts to make medical supplies for COVID-19. “A lot of these machines are incredibly complex, and adding capacity takes time. And time is the enemy.”
That’s especially true for the sophisticated and urgently needed ventilators that help critically ill patients breathe. Traditionally made by a handful of medical-device specialists, ventilators require many more components and are much more regulated than face shields.
In an attempt to streamline the process, Ford and GE decided to focus on an FDA-approved, relatively simple version produced by a small Florida company, Airon. “The key factor is speed and getting as many ventilators as possible to clinicians treating COVID-19 patients,” Tom Westrick, GE Healthcare’s chief quality officer, says in an emailed statement.
It’s completely innovative, and it totally works. Erin Brennan, a Detroit emergency physician, of Ford’s improvised face shield
Even these ventilators require about a month of sourcing, design, and regulatory conversations before Ford’s factory workers at the Rawsonville plant in Ypsilanti, Mich., can start producing them. Each Airon machine has up to 350 parts, which Adrian Price’s manufacturing team spent a weekend taking apart and 3D-scanning, before starting to look for ways to replicate them on a massive scale. (One substitution: adapting a timer valve usually used in Ford vehicles’ powertrains.)
“When we build a car or truck, the first thing for us as a manufacturing team is to figure out how to build one, and then how to build a few, and then how to build them at rate,” says Price, Ford’s director of global manufacturing core engineering and the executive in charge of its new ventilators, in early April. “And that’s really the process that we’ll be going through over the next couple of weeks.”
Ford expects its internal ventilator production to start the week of April 20, with a goal of making 1,500 ventilators by the end of April; 12,000 by the end of May; and 50,000 within 100 days. (GM will supply 6,000 by the end of May and 30,000 by the end of August.) Still, the effort may not be enough, as experts are predicting the country will need another 14,000 ventilators by mid-April.
“We’re too late to the party,” says Marcus Schabacker, a physician and the head of ECRI, a nonprofit focused on medical devices and patient safety. No matter how many ventilators are actually produced in the next few months, there are other hurdles that no manufacturer can solve, he says—including an equally dire shortage of trained health care personnel that can use them.
“It’s very good and very positive that these companies are stepping forward,” adds Julie Letwat, a health care attorney with McGuireWoods in Chicago. “But the devil’s in the details. Will they have enough workers? Who’s paying for these? How will they be distributed?”
The UAW workers who have volunteered to risk the virus and manufacture the ventilators will be working at social-distance levels, and Ford says it is considering new, as-yet-unspecified technology to protect them. But that’s not a guarantee, of course—and the last two questions are even trickier. Baumbick says, “We haven’t spent any time talking about cost,” and adds that Ford is working with a coalition of hospitals and government agencies and officials, including FEMA, the CDC, and the White House, to decide where its medical supplies will go.
The federal government is also getting more actively involved. On April 8, the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services announced that it had given GM a $489 million contract to deliver 30,000 ventilators by the end of August. By then, Ford may be supplying a vast array of medical supplies and personal protective equipment. On April 13 the company announced that it has started making masks, and is turning airbag material into reusable gowns.
Now that the face shields are flying out of its factories, Fisher has turned her focus to a much more complex device: a battery-powered, air-purifying respirator. Internally, Ford calls it a “scrappy” version of a PAPR, the hood-and-air-hose devices that doctors sometimes wear with or in lieu of the N95 masks that are in such short supply. “We thought it was going to be an area of unmet need,” Fisher says. “And it looked like something that not everybody could do, in an area where we have a lot of engineering depth.”
The PAPR design, which Ford has adapted from and is developing with advice from 3M, also required regulatory conversations and testing before Ford could start production on April 14. The company says that it will assemble 100,000 or more of the PAPRs at its Vreeland facility near Flat Rock, Mich.
“Things are very fluid right now,” Fisher said earlier in the month, echoing a common refrain during this coronavirus spring. “It’s just moving so fast.”
Going to war with the virus
In the 1940s, Ford and General Motors switched their factories over to manufacture tanks and airplanes for World War II. Now both are invoking that comparison to make supplies to fight COVID-19, as are some of their fellow automakers and leaders of many other industries. What they’re making:
Ford
Ford is already producing 1 million plastic face shields a week and has promised 50,000 Airon ventilators by July. It’s also making a version of 3M’s respirators and is helping 3M and GE ramp up their own production of respirators and ventilators.
General Motors
General Motors has promised the federal government 30,000 ventilators by the end of August, in partnership with medical-device specialist Ventec Life Systems. GM is also working on surgical masks and says it could eventually make 50,000 a day.
Xerox
Xerox is partnering with Vortran Medical Technology to make up to 200,000 disposable, non-ICU ventilators a month by June.
Dyson
Dyson has promised the U.K. government 10,000 of a newly designed ventilator, and founder James Dyson has said he will donate another 5,000 internationally.
A version of this article appears in the May 2020 issue of Fortune with the headline, “Ford shifts gears.”
More coronavirus coverage from Fortune:
—How Fortune 500 companies are utilizing their resources and expertise during the pandemic
—Inside the surreal “Mask Economy”: Price-gouging, bidding wars, and armed guards
—When will stimulus checks be deposited or mailed? Ensure yours is not delayed
—Job hunting during a pandemic: How laid-off tech workers are faring
—How South Korea is preparing for the first nationwide election of the coronavirus era
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—PODCAST: COVID-19 might have upended the concept of the best companies of the year
—VIDEO: 401(k) withdrawal penalties waived for anyone hurt by COVID-19
Subscribe to Outbreak, a daily newsletter roundup of stories on the coronavirus pandemic and its impact on global business. It’s free to get it in your inbox.


fortune--2020-04-15--Stocks and oil slide as companies reveal the coronavirus hit to their earnings

This is the web version of the Bull Sheet, Fortune’s no-BS daily newsletter on the markets. Sign up to receive it in your inbox here.
Good morning, Bull Sheeters. We’re stuck in a “W” cycle—up yesterday, down today.
On the calendar today is another wave of bank earnings and a much-watched energy industry report. Let’s see where investors are putting their money.
Markets update
In Asia, the major indices are trading slightly lower even after China’s central bank decided to pump more liquidity into the banking system and cut the main lending rate 20 basis points. Meanwhile, all eyes will be on South Korea today, where, as Fortune‘s Grady McGregor writes, the country is holding the world’s first-nationwide election of the coronavirus era.
The IMF’s report from yesterday is still weighing on global markets. It warned the “Great Lockdown” recession will shrink the global economy by 3% this year, a decline not seen since the Great Depression.
***
Speaking of depressing… Europe is trading sharply lower on Wednesday with Germany’s Dax down about 2%. The prospect of European countries easing coronavirus lockdown measures lifted markets yesterday. But that’s fading today, despite another round of reports that Germany, Spain and Italy are making progress in their fight against the coronavirus pandemic.
With earning season underway, investors’ focus is squarely on corporates. Today, Dutch chip maker ASML declined to provide a Q2 outlook, like so many companies. CEO Peter Wennink says demand remains strong. What’s less certain is “how the current COVID-19 crisis will impact the global GDP development, end markets, our manufacturing capability and supply chain,” he tells Bloomberg.
***
The U.S. futures are pointing to a weak open. The Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq are poised to open down by more than 1% after impressive gains yesterday.
The banks may be our best window into how deep a recession we can expect. JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo yesterday told investors they’ve set aside a combined $10 billion to cushion against a flood of insolvencies and loan defaults.
Up today are Bank of America, Goldman Sachs and Citigroup, giving us further data on the fragile U.S. economy.
In bailout news, U.S. airlines apparently struck a deal to get $25 billion in federal funding to ride out the worst of the crisis. Shares of American Airlines, United Airlines, Delta Air Lines, and Southwest Airlines initially rose on the news in after-hours trading.
***
Elsewhere, the dollar is up. Gold and crude are down. Brent is again trading below $30 per barrel, wiping out much of the gains it hit in the run-up to last weekend’s OPEC+ deal to cut output. There could be more turmoil after the International Energy Agency publishes its annual outlook today.
***
Tuesday’s rally notwithstanding, investors are still approaching the markets with caution. That’s one of the few constants during these volatile times.
Yesterday, a new piece of investor survey data came out showing risk-off sentiment rules the day. That’s the subject of today’s chart.
***
Wait and see
The data is part of a Gallup/Wells Fargo survey which found that the majority of investors (55% as of April 3-5) view the current market as a time to sit on the sidelines until prices recover and a calmer pattern emerges. That bearish view among investors has increased since the tumultuous trading days in mid-March just before the S&P 500 hit its 2020 low.
“As the COVID-19 crisis stretches into a second month with no end in sight to current business closures and sweeping social distancing recommendations, investors have grown less optimistic about how soon the market will recover once the coronavirus crisis ends,” the report’s authors note.
Now here’s some good news. As you extend the timeline, those polled begin to feel more comfortable about the future of their portfolio. Eight in 10 investors “are confident they can weather the current market downturn.” That data point resembles one we saw in another recent investor poll by Allianz. As I noted in Bull Sheet last week, 70% of investors surveyed by Allianz felt there was still plenty of time to recoup portfolio losses.
Postscript
Let’s leave it there on that upbeat note. I’ll be back here tomorrow with new insights and observations from lockdown land.
Have a good day. And stay safe and sane.
Bernhard Warner
@BernhardWarner
Bernhard.Warner@Fortune.com
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Today's reads
Behind the mask. With America's hospitals desperate for medical masks to treat coronavirus patients, the “mask economy” has turned surreal, with price-gouging, bidding wars and armed guards protecting warehouses. Long-time suppliers in China are now charging seven times more for masks than they did in December and that, coupled with soaring freight costs, has driven the price hospitals are paying through the roof, reports Fortune’s Shawn Tully.
Depression-era bad. The coronavirus recession will likely be the worst since the Great Depression almost a century ago, the IMF predicts. The cumulative loss in global GDP this year and next could be about $9 trillion—bigger than the economies of Japan and Germany combined. IMF chief economist Gita Gopinath called it a crisis “like no other”.
Banks squeezed. First-quarter profit at JPMorgan Chase plunged by nearly 70% to the lowest in more than six years, giving investors a first taste of the damage the COVID-19 pandemic is inflicting on bank results. The bank set aside $8.29 billion for bad loans, the biggest provision in at least a decade and more than double what some analysts had expected. Shares were down nearly 3% on Tuesday.
Market candy
This date in history
What's regarded as the first franchised McDonald’s restaurant opened in Des Plaines, Ill., on this date 65 years ago—on April 15, 1955—under an agreement between the founding McDonald brothers and Ray Kroc, who saw the potential to expand the brothers’ stripped-down Speedee Service System hamburger restaurant concept nationwide. Today, the company is the world’s best-known fast-food chain with over 36,000 restaurants in over 100 nations.


fortune--2020-04-15--Jamie Dimon, Tim Cook and more: All the CEOs Trump says will advise him as the coronavirus crisis ea

Jamie Dimon, Tim Cook and more: All the CEOs Trump says will advise him as the coronavirus crisis eases

President Donald Trump said he’s tapping the country’s most prominent business executives, including Jamie Dimon, Tim Cook and Doug McMillon, to help revive the economy as the coronavirus pandemic shows signs of easing in some parts of the country.
“They’re going to give us some ideas,” Trump said Tuesday at a briefing in the Rose Garden, where he unveiled a sprawling list of dozens of CEOs from industries ranging from agriculture to defense. He said the leaders would participate in “economic revival” groups, but didn’t elaborate on how they may shape the administration’s policies.
In addition to JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s Dimon, Trump’s list included a slate of executives from Wall Street: Stephen Schwarzman of Blackstone Group Inc.; Brian Moynihan of Bank of America Corp.; David Solomon of Goldman Sachs Group Inc.; James Gorman of Morgan Stanley; Michael Corbat of Citigroup Inc.; and Charles Scharf of Wells Fargo & Co.
And in addition to Walmart Inc.’s McMillon, and Apple Inc.’s Cook, Trump’s list included: Darren Woods of Exxon Mobil Corp.; Satya Nadella of Microsoft Corp.; He also cited John Malone of Liberty Media Corp.; Fred Smith of FedEx Corp.; Oscar Munoz of United Airlines Inc.; Juan Luciano of Archer-Daniels-Midland Co.; David MacLennan of Cargill Inc.; Marillyn Hewson of Lockheed Martin Corp.; Kathy Warden of Northrop Grumman Corp. and James Quincey of Coca-Cola Co.
He named allies, including Sheldon Adelson of Las Vegas Sands Corp., but also Jeff Bezos, the CEO of Amazon.com Inc., who has been a repeated target of the president’s vitriol.
Trump said he would also be talking to executives and other leaders, including Richard Trumka, the head of the AFL-CIO, by telephone.
The groups announced Tuesday appeared didn’t appear to be the formal economic task force that the president has recently said he would form.
Trump has been eager to end economy-stifling social-distancing measures almost as soon as he announced them, though last month he extended them until April 30 on the advice of government health experts.
Many of those same health officials have cautioned that lifting restrictions on May 1 may be too soon. But Trump’s economic advisers have intensified their efforts to persuade the president that the country should reopen to stave off economic ruin.
More must-read stories from Fortune:
—How Fortune 500 companies are stepping up during the pandemic
—When will stimulus checks be deposited or mailed? Ensure yours isn’t delayed
—Stocks have gained 25% since their March lows—but the math doesn’t add up
—Freelancers and independent contractors can now apply for SBA Paycheck Protection Program loans. Here’s what to know
—After coronavirus, expect to see smaller airlines
—PODCAST: COVID-19 might have upended the concept of the best companies of the year
—WATCH: The U.S. Postal Service is in deep financial trouble. Here’s why
Subscribe to Outbreak, a daily newsletter roundup of stories on the coronavirus pandemic and its impact on global business. It’s free to get it in your inbox.


fortune--2020-04-16--Trump prepares to unveil new coronavirus guidelines Thursday, saying U.S. is ‘past the peak’

On the pain of the coronavirus economy

President Donald Trump said he’s prepared to announce new guidelines allowing some states to quickly ease up on social distancing even as business leaders told him they need more coronavirus testing and personal protective equipment before people can safely go back to work.
The industry executives cautioned Trump that the return to normalcy will be anything but swift.
The new guidelines, expected to be announced Thursday, are aimed at clearing the way for an easing of restrictions in areas with low transmission of the coronavirus, while keeping them in place in harder-hit places. The ultimate decisions will remain with governors.
“We’ll be opening some states much sooner than others,” Trump said Wednesday.
But in a round of calls with business leaders earlier in the day, Trump was warned that a dramatic increasing in testing and wider availability of protective equipment will be necessary for the safe restoration of their operations.
The new guidelines come as the federal government envisions a gradual recovery from the virus, in which disruptive mitigation measures may be needed in some places at least until a vaccine is available — a milestone unlikely to be reached until next year.
Trump said at his daily briefing that data indicates the U.S. is “past the peak” of the COVID-19 epidemic, clearing the way for his plans to roll out guidelines to begin to “reopen” the country.
He called the latest data “encouraging,” saying the numbers have “put us in a very strong position to finalize guidelines for states on reopening the country.”
Dr. Deborah Birx, the White House coronavirus task force coordinator, added that data from across the country showed the nation “improving” but that Americans had to recommit to social distancing to keep up the positive momentum.
She said nine states have fewer than 1,000 cases and just a few dozen new cases per day. She said those would likely be the first to see a lifting in social distancing restrictions at the direction of their governors under the guidelines set to be released Thursday.
Birx said the White House was particularly concerned about Rhode Island, noting it is now seeing a surge in cases from the Boston metro area after seeing a spike several weeks ago from cases from New York.
Trump consulted dozens of high-profile CEOs, union officials and other executives via conference calls Wednesday.
He received a mixed message from the industry leaders. They, too, said they want to get the economy going but had worries about how to safely do so.
In a tweet midway through Trump’s round of conference calls with the executives, the president said the participants were “all-in on getting America back to work, and soon.”
But participants in a morning call that included dozens of leading American companies raised concerns about the testing issue, according to one participant who spoke on the condition of anonymity to describe the private discussion.
Another person who participated in Wednesday’s calls said it was stressed to Trump that expansion of testing and contact tracing was crucial, as well as guidelines for best practices on reopening businesses in phases or in one fell swoop.
The participant said those on the call noted to the administration that there was about to be a massive rush on personal protective equipment. Many businesses that are now shuttered will need the protective equipment to keep their employees and customers safe.
Trump was told “the economy will look very different and operations will look very different,” one participant said.
Mark Cuban, the billionaire entrepreneur and owner of the Dallas Mavericks, was among several representatives from major sports leagues to speak with Trump. During a Fox News Channel interview ahead of the calls, he credited the president with gathering some of the “best of the best” to help shape his approach on reopening the economy. Still, Cuban did not embrace Trump’s push to reopen parts of the economy May 1.
“This is such a moving target that I think the biggest mistake we can make is rush to a decision,” said Cuban, who previously had been critical of Trump’s response to the pandemic. “But I’m going to help him in every way I can, whatever he needs me to do.”
The panel, which Trump dubbed the new Great American Economic Revival Industry Groups, also could help give Trump a measure of cover. If cases surge once restrictions are lifted, as many experts have warned, Trump will be able to tell the public he didn’t act alone and the nation’s top minds — from manufacturing to defense to technology — helped shape the plan.
Rich Nolan, president and CEO of the National Mining Association, who participated in one of the calls with Trump, said there was also discussion about tax relief as well as “making sure that people are optimistic about the economy and they feel safe coming back to work.”
“I think you’ll see steps to reopen the country at different rates in different states in the not too distant future,” Nolan said.
The launch of the council was not without hiccups.
AFL-CIO President Richard Trumka didn’t know until he heard his name announced in the Rose Garden on Tuesday that he would be part of the advisory group, according to Carolyn Bobb, a spokeswoman for the union.
“We were not asked,” Bobb said in an email. It was “just announced.”
Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan said Trump has appointed some “smart people” to his task force who could offer state leaders helpful guidelines as they negotiate the way forward.
“There are certain roles that only the federal government can play and should play, but I think the governors are going to make their own decisions within those recommended guidelines,” Hogan said.
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—How Fortune 500 companies are utilizing their resources and expertise during the pandemic
—Inside the surreal “Mask Economy”: Price-gouging, bidding wars, and armed guards
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—Should you fear government surveillance in the coronavirus era?
—If you’ve been a little busy lately, here’s what’s going on with the 2020 election
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—There are 32 authorized coronavirus tests so far—here’s how they differ
—PODCAST: COVID-19 might have upended the concept of the best companies of the year
—VIDEO: 401(k) withdrawal penalties waived for anyone hurt by COVID-19
Subscribe to Outbreak, a daily newsletter roundup of stories on the coronavirus pandemic and its impact on global business. It’s free to get it in your inbox.


fortune--2020-04-16--How every sector of the S&P 500 has been impacted by the coronavirus selloff

This article is part of a Fortune Special Report: Business in the Coronavirus Economy—a look at the impact of the pandemic on more than 50 industries.
So far, this year has already featured the worst month for stocks (March) since October 2008 and the best week (early April) since 1974. But as chaotic and painful as the market swoon has been, it hasn’t yet surpassed the last major meltdown. Only one industry has plunged further from its high than it did during the Great Recession of 2007 to 2009—energy, thanks to an oil price war this spring between Russia and Saudi Arabia. Stock valuations, as measured by price/ earnings ratios, have stayed relatively buoyant too. Of course, it could be early days. The bear market that began in 2007 lasted 517 days. And it took 929 days to start a new bull market after the dotcom bubble burst. The good news: In both cases, stocks eventually soared again.