fortune--2020-03-16--Distrust is contagious: How the coronavirus could upend America’s business relationships to China

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From the moment it erupted in Wuhan, China, the COVID-19 virus has proved particularly lethal to patients with the prior, chronic illnesses often described as “underlying health conditions.” Now the contagion is having a similarly grim effect on the U.S.-China economic relationship—where accumulated mistrust and resentment have created unhealthy conditions of a different kind.
As the virus shakes the world’s business community, sending global stocks into or close to bear-market territory, it’s easy to forget that many of the first economic warning signs came from U.S. companies with significant China exposure. Apple and Nike reported supply-line disruptions. Ford, General Motors, and Tesla shuttered factories in China and fretted over shortages everywhere else. Starbucks and Walmart closed Chinese stores, while Disney suspended operations at parks in Shanghai and Hong Kong.
At minimum, the chaos has prompted U.S. investors and executives to rethink the wisdom of concentrating supply lines in China and relying heavily on Chinese consumers. More broadly, the epidemic has added kindling to a smoldering debate about “decoupling”—the idea that after four decades of stitching the U.S. economy ever more closely to China’s, the time may have come to pry them apart again.
Photo-Illustration by Selman Design
Decoupling implies a full split, and few business leaders are willing to use the “D” word on the record. But proponents of a more distant relationship, including some of President Trump’s top economic advisers, have seized on the contagion as proof of the dangers of doing business in a secretive, Communist-controlled economy. Over the past few weeks, White House trade adviser Peter Navarro has called the outbreak a “wake-up call,” while Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross predicted it would help bring manufacturing jobs back to the U.S. Even those who favor continued engagement warn that the virus may hasten a decisive fracture in relations already frayed by three years of hostile rhetoric over matters of trade, technology, national security, and human rights.
Trump and China’s Xi Jinping in December reached a “phase 1” deal that puts trade hostilities on hold. But escalating conflict had already led U.S. businesses to reroute orders worth hundreds of billions of dollars to other countries, in industries from textiles to toys. Huge electronics retailer Best Buy has suggested that it will reduce products made in China to 40% of the cost of goods it sells, down from 60% in 2019. In a recent earnings call, CEO Corie Barry called the coronavirus “one more piece of evidence that will continue to put pressure on diversifying supply lines.”
The superpowers’ diverging paths are painfully apparent in technology. Google, Facebook, and Twitter are banned in China, and first-time foreign visitors marvel that it is almost impossible to get around, communicate, or dine there without relying on Chinese tech giants Tencent or Alibaba. In hardware, the U.S. has cited security and human-rights concerns in cutting Chinese tech companies out of its supply chains. It has also placed telecommunications giant Huawei and dozens of other Chinese firms on a blacklist that prevents them from buying key components from U.S. firms without a waiver. Beijing has responded by turning its technological back on America, accelerating its drive for autonomy in areas such as semiconductors and artificial intelligence.
Even those who favor continued engagement warn that the virus may hasten a decisive fracture in relations already frayed by three years of hostile rhetoric.
Another symptom of the diseased relationship is the constricted flow of talent. The 370,000 Chinese students enrolled in U.S. colleges and universities account for 34% of all international students in the U.S., and many U.S. schools rely on Chinese tuition to balance their budgets. But travel restrictions designed to contain the virus have prevented thousands of Chinese students from returning to the U.S. for this spring’s semester. Even before the outbreak, Chinese students were finding it harder to obtain U.S. visas, and many in the applied sciences complain of a “red scare,” in which they are increasingly viewed as government spies.
The rift creates difficult choices for economies that trade heavily with the superpowers. Taiwan’s biggest chipmaker, the $36-billion-in-revenue Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC), supplies U.S. companies including Apple and Chinese firms including Huawei. In recent weeks, the Trump administration has pressured it to shift production of its military-use chips to the U.S. TSMC says that it hasn’t ruled out the possibility but that there is “no concrete plan.”
The prospect of a split is especially troubling in Australia, a staunch U.S. ally that is also the developed world’s most China-reliant economy, with trade worth around $200 billion annually. Australia ships a third of its exports to China, and Chinese nationals account for 15% of its tourists. Former Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd, now president of the New York–based Asia Society Policy Institute, has been beating the drum to warn against separation. “A fully decoupled world would be a deeply destabilizing place, undermining the global economic growth assumptions of the last 40 years,” he lamented in a recent speech.
By the numbers:
–109 billion Decline in China-U.S. trade from 2018 to 2019. Source: U.S. Commerce Department
370,000 Chinese students enrolled in U.S. colleges and universities. Source: Institute of International Education
60% Share of Americans with an unfavorable attitude toward China—a record high. Source: Pew Research Center
By mid-March, China’s government was declaring that the slowdown caused by the coronavirus was reversing, reporting that more than 90% of the state-owned firms it oversees had resumed operation (though many are far from full strength). In theory, trade and investment between the U.S. and China could stage a “V-shaped” recovery, as happened after the SARS epidemic in 2003.
But COVID-19’s economic toll, far greater than that of SARS, is also affecting an American public that’s less sympathetic than ever to China. In 2019, the percentage of Americans with an unfavorable attitude toward China jumped to a record high of 60%, according to the Pew Research Center. In the upcoming presidential election, hostility toward China may be the rare issue on which Trump and his Democratic opponent agree.
Both nations have too much to lose from completely severing their myriad commercial connections. And COVID-19 has shown how much damage the economic equivalent of a quarantine can do. For now, like the rest of us in this age of contagion, they’ll opt for fewer contacts and less prosperity in exchange for less entanglement. Call it the economic version of social distancing.
With reporting by Phil Wahba
A version of this article appears in the January 2020 issue of Fortune with the headline “Distrust is Contagious.”
More coronavirus coverage from Fortune:
—How to get a refund on your Broadway tickets after coronavirus shut down
—A Q&A with WHO special envoy David Nabarro on COVID-19
—The best Twitters to follow for reliable information on the coronavirus outbreak
—After SXSW cancellation, Austin hotels and restaurants are bracing for a rough road
—While canceling mass gatherings, the U.K. is still aiming for deliberate “herd immunity”
—Walmart, Target, CVS, and Walgreens will loan space for coronavirus test centers
—Let’s remember what we learned in WWII, as well as in 2008
Follow Fortune on Flipboard to stay up-to-date on the latest news and analysis.


fortune--2020-03-16--Airlines slash flights by up to 90% as coronavirus destroys demand

OK Boomerang : Why return CEOs are usually bad news for a company ’ s stock

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The airline downturn reached new levels as carriers from American Airlines Group Inc. to British Airways parent IAG SA slashed schedules and braced for a drought that could last for months.
American will pare long-haul international flights by 75% — the biggest reductions to date by a U.S.-based carrier — because of the collapse in travel demand and government restrictions imposed to slow the spread of coronavirus.
Delta Air Lines Inc. and United Airlines Holdings Inc. further reduced schedules, while IAG fell 23% after saying it will cut capacity by at least 75% for the next two months and freeze hiring. The Bloomberg EMEA Airlines index sank 16%.
The actions reflect the increasing severity of the downturn that has pummeled airlines worldwide as the virus spreads and travel restrictions expand. White House officials are discussing temporarily allowing cash-strapped carriers to keep some taxes and fees they collect from passengers. Separately, Sydney-based CAPA Centre for Aviation warned the pandemic may bankrupt most airlines worldwide, and many have probably been driven into technical bankruptcy or substantially breached debt covenants already.
Fallout from the outbreak is sparing few airlines anywhere. President Donald Trump extended a temporary ban on some flights into the U.S. to include those from the U.K. and Ireland, pulling more airlines into the bedlam.
At IAG, where outgoing IAG Chief Executive Officer Willie Walsh will delay his retirement, the company said Monday it can’t accurately predict full-year profit. The shares fell 23% while big trans-Atlantic carriers Deutsche Lufthansa AG and Air France-KLM , dropped 14% and 19%, respectively. EasyJet Plc fell 29% after rescinding its earnings forecast.
Air France-KLM Chief Executive Officer Ben Smith said he would take a 25% cut in his compensation to help cut costs. The carrier has asked the French and Dutch governments, who hold stakes in the company, for support and has further slashed fights at Air France and Transavia by as much as 90%, he said in an internal video to staff Monday.
In Australia, Qantas Airways Ltd. said it plans a fourth round of capacity cuts after the government forced anyone arriving from overseas to isolate themselves. The carrier has already axed almost a quarter of its international flights for six months.
Air New Zealand Ltd. said it’s slashing long-haul capacity 85% and cutting jobs. In Sweden, SAS AB is temporarily laying off as much as 90% of its workforce and canceling most of its flights.
American will cut service starting Monday through May 6, the carrier said late Saturday. The airline will continue to operate one flight daily from Dallas-Fort Worth to London, one daily from Miami to London and three weekly flights from Dallas-Fort Worth to Tokyo. The airline has an extensive partnership with carriers led by British Airways.
U.S. capacity will fall 20% in April and 30% in May, both from a year earlier. American is suspending flights from New York, Boston, Chicago and Los Angeles to London’s Heathrow Airport over the next seven days.
Delta will temporarily suspend service between Detroit and London starting Monday and between New York’s John F. Kennedy and Dublin on March 18, the carrier said Sunday. Delta already announced plans to reduce flying and seat capacity 40%, park 300 planes, suspend hiring and offer unpaid voluntary leaves.
United will reduce its capacity about 50% in April and May, deepening previous cuts, the company said late Sunday. Salaries of corporate officers will be halved. The airline also started talks with unions to lower payroll expenses. That process “will be painful for all of us,” United Chief Executive Officer Oscar Munoz and President J. Scott Kirby said.
In a joint statement to nearly 100,000 United employees, Munoz and Kirby warned there’s worse to come. Passenger numbers and revenue will “decline sharply” in coming days and weeks, they said.
“We are working night and day on support and ideas to keep as much pay as we possibly can flowing to you — even if gets worse from here and demand temporarily plummets to zero,” they said.
A Standard & Poor’s index of the five largest U.S. carriers has fallen 38% this year through March 13.
More coronavirus coverage from Fortune:
—How to get a refund on your Broadway tickets after coronavirus shut down
—A Q&A with WHO special envoy David Nabarro on COVID-19
—The best Twitters to follow for reliable information on the coronavirus outbreak
—After SXSW cancellation, Austin hotels and restaurants are bracing for a rough road
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—Let’s remember what we learned in WWII, as well as in 2008
Subscribe to Fortune’s Outbreak newsletter for a daily roundup of stories on the coronavirus outbreak and its impact on global business.


fortune--2020-03-16--The greatest designs of modern times

The greatest designs of modern times

In 1959, Fortune published a “fascinating and brash” project that set out to discover the 100 best-designed products of the modern era. The list was compiled by Jay Doblin, the director of the Institute of Design at the Illinois Institute of Technology (IIT), based on a survey sent out to 100 of the era’s top designers, architects, and design teachers. The result is a fascinating document for modern eyes—perfectly illustrating mid-century design philosophy, yet often mirroring contemporary tastes: sleek sports cars by Porsche and Cisitalia, and even sleeker armchairs by Eames, Aalto, and Saarinen. Domestic appliances with forms foreshadowing Sputnik and the start of the Space Age. Above all, a deep appreciation for the aesthetic beauty not just of luxury goods but also the practical items that improve people’s lives on a daily basis.
In 2019, to recognize the 60-year anniversary of the original list, Fortune again partnered with the IIT Institute of Design (ID), now under the deanship of Denis Weil, to re-create the survey. Following Doblin’s methodology as closely as possible—with some sensible modern tweaks—ID polled educators, influencers, freelance designers, and corporate design teams on the creations they consider truly great. After more than a year of planning, surveying, and consolidation, we present to you the 100 iconic designs that rose to the top.
Just as in 1959, respondents were asked to name up to 10 examples of what they considered the best-designed products of the “modern era”—though this time we asked them to provide a reason for the nomination. Our respondents came back with more than 300 different products. But there was a clear convergence around the top 25, which were ranked by the number of nominations they received. For the rest of the list, where there was less consensus, the researchers at ID used language analysis of the submissions to rank products based on five criteria: how adaptable and expandable the product is; impact on society or the environment; ease of use; commercial success; and whether it redefined its category.
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The results show a clear shift in design philosophy over the past six decades. “Design has graduated from ‘value-adding,’ ” says Weil. “Now it’s value-driving, unlocking and making accessible the value in new technology.” Sixty years ago, the word design was almost synonymous with the aesthetics of the finished product. Today the emphasis is on how elegantly the product or service performs its specific purpose or function. Perhaps the clearest example of this evolution is a new category that appears on our updated list: Internet services. Google Search, ranked No. 3, is a great design not because of visual adornment, but because it eschews all unnecessary elements to do its job—organizing vast troves of information—near perfectly.
In his 1970 book One Hundred Great Product Designs, published only 11 years after compiling his original list, Doblin was already aware of where design was going next. “Process must become more important than product,” he wrote. “In the future, pride of ownership…will give way to human values—education, intelligence, contributions to society, creativity.” While optimistic, and even in 2020 not fully realized, we can see elements of his prediction in the updated list. In 1959, 14 automobiles made it into the top 100. Our new ranking includes just four—and Uber, an entire system of transportation rather than a single vehicle, ranks higher than all of them.
With regards to No. 1 on our list, Apple’s iPhone, respondents did not speak so much to its physical design—as handsome as its various iterations have been—but to the way in which the device has transformed human communication and nearly every aspect of how we live.
“Not only an instant way to be constantly connected,” said Kathleen Brandenburg of design consultancy IA Collaborative, of the device, “but a flexible, ever-evolving design that becomes whatever each user wants it to be.”
Pages show the original list in the April 1959 issue of Fortune. Fortune
While more than one-third of the ranking comprises designs from the past 15 years, our respondents did acknowledge what one might call timeless creations. Six designs—marked by a star—are so iconic that they made both the 1959 list and today’s version. A handful of creators also appear on both editions, including Ray and Charles Eames, Alvar Aalto, and Eero Saarinen, whose furniture and home accessory designs are a shortcut for achieving mid-century cool; typeface designer Paul Renner, whose Futura font was used by Vogue, the Apollo program, and streetwear brand Supreme; and Ferdinand Porsche, whose car designs were both democratic, as is the case with the Volkswagen Beetle, and cutting-edge, as with the Porsche 911.
Our hope is that this list inspires you to think about the ways you encounter design every day. It’s a reminder that great design is more than window dressing—it’s about making life easier, simpler, better. And that’s beautiful.
Photograph by Dan Saelinger for Fortune; Styling by Birte Von Kampen
1. iPhone
Designed by Apple, 2007
“An iPod, a phone, an Internet communicator” was how the late Steve Jobs announced the iPhone to the world in 2007. At the time it was an impressive claim. Now it seems like a massive understatement for a device that changed how we live. Analysts were initially skeptical that Apple could succeed selling a premium phone for $499 in a market in which most devices were subsidized or given away by carriers. But by relentlessly pushing the envelope of hardware and software design, adding a professional-grade camera, and creating an ecosystem of apps and services, Apple has sold more than 2 billion iPhones—and in the process has become the most valuable company in the world.
Icon Illustrations by Martín Laksman
2. Macintosh
Designed by Apple, 1984
Apple started the personal computer revolution with the Apple II, but the Macintosh defined the category.
“The Macintosh was not the first personal computer, nor was it the first one with a graphical user interface, but it was the first complete product that took all these ideas and more into a complete package. It became a computer one could understand and interact with using both language and vision, typing and drawing. It changed the way we relate to a computer.” —Johan Redstrom, professor, Umeå University
3. Google Search Engine
Designed by Google, 1997
A minimalist gateway to a universe of information.
“Just type in where you want to go or what you want to know in one simple box.“ —David Kelley, founder, IDEO
Photograph by Dan Saelinger for Fortune; Styling by Birte Von Kampen
4. Eames Fiberglass Armchair
Designed by Ray + Charles Eames, 1950
Say “Eames chair,” and one might think of the leather and plywood lounge chair created by husband and wife design team Charles and Ray Eames in 1956. But it’s the distinctly more democratic molded plastic and fiberglass armchair introduced six years earlier that ranks high on our list. Available in a variety of styles and colors, the design can be found everywhere from conference rooms to downtown lofts. Another testament to its greatness: The chair remains in production today.
Ted Thai—The LIFE Picture Collection/Getty Images
5. Sony Walkman TPS-L2
Designed by Norio Ohga, 1979
The Walkman allowed us to set the world to our own soundtrack.
“Changed the concept of listening to music.” —Anthony Dalby, VP, Design, Lego
6. OXO Good Grips Peeler
Designed by Sam Farber + Smart Design, 1990
Farber created this ergonomically superior peeler for his arthritic wife.
“Perhaps the best example of inclusive design, this peeler and the Good Grips line of innovations shows that design made more accessible to all is also better design for everyone.” —Brandon Schauer, former head of enterprise design, Capital One
7. Uber Rideshare
Designed by Uber, 2009
By leveraging the gig economy and GPS, Uber created a global transportation system.
“Simplicity, convenience, and a seamless experience. By truly identifying the ‘pain points’ of taxi travel, and designing a great experience, they disrupted an industry and evolved how we move today.” —Mark Buchalter, design director, Hornall Anderson
8. Netflix Streaming
Designed by Netflix, 1997
The DVD rental company turned streaming service upended the movie and TV industries.
“Netflix transitioned the world into a new era of video streaming and redefined how video content is created and distributed.”—Logitech Design Team
Photograph by Dan Saelinger for Fortune; Styling by Birte Von Kampen
9. Lego Building Blocks
Designed by Lego + Hilary Fisher Page, 1939
A delight to children and the bane of any parent who has stepped on an errant brick, Lego is the most popular toy in the world, with 75 billion pieces made annually. Though the company is famously Danish, the design originates with English toymaker Hilary Fisher Page, who created an “Interlocking Building Cube” in the late 1930s. Lego founder Ole Kirk Christiansen brought the bricks back from a trip to London and later acquired permission from Page.
iGeneration: Steve Jobs introducing the iPod in 2001. Susan Ragan—Reuters
10. iPod
Designed by Apple (Jonathan Ive), 2001
The heir to the Walkman’s throne. Put all your music in your pocket.
“It revolutionized a category with a closed system, and propelled the music industry forward.” —José Manuel dos Santos, head of design & user experience, Signify
11. Google Maps
Designed by Where 2 Technologies, 2005
Maps transformed our relationship with our environment. Nowhere is unknown.
“Google Maps looks at how people think about navigation—planning, time management, anticipating micro-steps, discovering what’s nearby or on the way, and destination info—and then layered on crowd sourced data to make real-time adjustments to results, integrated with its other products (search, advertising, etc.).” —Russell Flench, service designer, Cleveland Clinic
Liftoff: Composite image of the gantry retracting while the Saturn V boosters lift off to carry the Apollo 11 astronauts to the Moon, July 16, 1969. Ralph Morse—The LIFE Picture Collection via Getty Images
12. Apollo 11 Mission
Designed by NASA, 1969
“Put a man on the moon.” —Nathan Van Hook, senior creative director, Nike
“On July 20, 1969, the first steps by human beings were taken on another planetary body. The Apollo 11 spacecraft was an integral part of the Lunar Landing Mission, driving monumental achievements in science, technology, engineering, and math. When the Apollo 11 spacecraft successfully landed on the moon, all of that washed away for a bit. The landing arguably became one of the most important moments in human history, as NASA showed what we are capable of if we put our minds and resources together.” —Tanner Woodford, founder and executive director, Chicago Design Museum
13. Akari Lamp 1A
Designed by Isamu Noguchi, 1951
Marrying function and sculpture, Noguchi’s endlessly imitated lamps are a domestic work of art.
“There are few designs as simple and omnipresent as Noguchi’s Akari paper lamps, which have been copied to death. One could argue that the Akari lamps, which Noguchi presented at the 1986 Venice Art Biennale, are indeed artworks, making them among the most widely disseminated art objects in the world. With the lamps, Noguchi brought together a centuries-old traditional Japanese technique with modern technology, and did so in the most beautiful of ways.” —Spencer Bailey, editor-at-large, Phaidon
14. MacBook Pro
Designed by Apple (Jonathan Ive), 2006
Untethered creative professionals from workstation computers.
“It simply changed every part of our life.” —Yongqi Lou, dean of the College of Design and Innovation at Tongji University
Photograph by Dan Saelinger for Fortune; Styling by Birte Von Kampen
15. Post-it Notes
Designed by 3M (Spencer Silver + Arthur Fry), 1977
The majority of the great designs on this list began as solutions to problems. But the Post-it began life as a solution without a problem. In the late 1960s, 3M chemist Spencer Silver—in pursuit of a superstrong adhesive—accidentally created a low-tack, reusable adhesive that could hold two surfaces together but easily be pulled apart. After kicking around the company for a few years, Silver’s colleague Arthur Fry used the adhesive for the bookmark in his hymnal so stop it falling out, sparking the idea for the Post-It. And the iconic yellow of the paper that eventually became home to that new substance? Also an accident. It was the color of the scrap paper available to the design team.
16. Boeing 747
Designed by Joe Sutter + Boeing Team, 1970
“Making travel easier and bringing the world together.” —Nathan Van Hook, senior creative director, Nike
“The first commercial airliner made travel to faraway places possible and relatively painless. My personal favorite is the Boeing 747, liked by most people when they first saw it, and part of my work history.” —David Kelley, founder, IDEO
Fortune
17. Polaroid SX-70
Designed by James Gilbert Baker + Edwin Herbert Land, 1972
Kodak gave us the camera; Polaroid gave us an entire film lab.
“It was so easy to use and came with tips that could make anyone be—or feel like—an expert photographer.” —Barbara Barry, design strategist, Mayo-Clinic School of Medicine
18. Model S Sedan
Designed by Tesla (Franz von Holzhausen), 2012
The car that took Tesla from upstart to global player. High-performance, zero emissions.
“It transformed the retail automobile into an exponentially more intelligent and efficient high-performance machine while reducing its environmental impact–potentially at enormous scale.”—Jason Ring, senior design manager, Uber
19. Nokia 3210
Designed by Alastair Curtis, 1999
The first phone to sell more than 100 million units. The pinnacle of pre-smartphone design.
“Freed the world from location-based communication, allowing people to take and answer calls from wherever they liked. It set the bar for size, battery life and robustness (people still use it today). It was also awarded the product of the Millennium and was the first phone to sell past the 100 million mark.” —Anthony Dalby, VP Design, Lego
20. Savoy Vase
Designed by Alvar + Aino Aalto, 1972
“Holds flowers similarly to a human hand.” —Renée Cheng, dean of the College of Built Environments, University of Washington
“The Alvar Aalto Vase is one of the world’s most famous glass objects. Each and every vase in the Alvar Aalto Collection continues to be mouth blown at the Iittala factory in Finland and comes in a wide range of colors and sizes. The collection is a staple of modern Scandinavian design and Iittala’s most iconic series.” —Fiskars Group
Courtesy of Signify
21. Philips Hue Lighting System
Designed by Philips (Signify), 2012
Made lighting our homes as personal as the music we listen to.
“Light points are the network for communication, hidden in a light bulb, but capable of much more.” —Ena Voûte, dean of the faculty of Industrial Design Engineering, TU Delft
22. App Store
Designed by Apple, 2008
Manufacturers used to control what was on your phone. The App Store lets you decide.
“With the App Store, Apple pays developers handsomely to create ever-greater apps that make this all possible. All this is refined by a principled, curatorial force of nature that makes us all feel inspired and optimistic that life is perpetually getting better.” —Jason Ring, senior design manager, Uber
23. Spotify
Designed by Spotify, 2006
The history of recorded music—on your desktop, on your phone, in your pocket.
“Amazing to think that today instead of going to Tower Records and looking at a few newly released albums, we now have access to every song ever recorded and all you have to do is ask for it.” —David Kelley, founder, IDEO
24. Amazon Prime
Designed by Amazon, 2005
“Press a button and get almost anything delivered to your door, without paying shipping.” —Jason Ring, senior design manager, Uber
“Jeff Bezos changed the way we shop, publish and read through his software design and warehouse system. Amazon Prime’s two-day shipping policy even has the US Postal Service making deliveries on Sundays, a once sacred day for government agencies to close.” —Anonymous survey respondent
Photograph by Dan Saelinger for Fortune; Styling by Birte Von Kampen
25. Muji Rice Cooker
Designed by Naoto Fukasawa, 2014
Compact, sleek, and intuitive, this simple rice cooker shows the “subtle and strong systematic coherence” that’s become Muji’s hallmark, says Alok Nandi of the Interaction Design Association. Though TV food personality Alton Brown loves to rail against kitchen “unitaskers”—devices with only one function—when that function is to quickly and simply cook the staple grain of half the world’s population, we think an exception can be made.
26. Airbnb
Designed by Airbnb, 2008
Airbnb’s model of staying with a local was a radical approach to travel that made us feel less like tourists.
“Because staying in the home of a local exponentially increases the learning potential of travel. Airbnb experiences typically cost less for travelers, and they help everyday people earn money in a flexible way.” —Jason Ring, senior design manager, Uber
27. Wikipedia
Designed by Wikipedia, 2001
“Addresses the complex problem of democratizing and sharing knowledge.” —Barbara Barry, design strategist, Mayo-Clinic School of Medicine
Photograph by Dan Saelinger for Fortune; Styling by Birte Von Kampen
28. NYC Subway Map
Designed by Unimark (Massimo Vignelli), 1972
The challenge: design a legible guide to the sprawling transit system of New York City. Italian designer Massimo Vignelli’s solution? Ignore the overground geography and create a simplified, color-coded abstraction. Designers love the map, but the straphangers of the era did not: The MTA had it redesigned just five years later. But many of Vignelli’s original design cues persist, including the color-coding, heavy use of Helvetica, and liberties taken with the geography of the five boroughs.
29. iOS
Designed by Apple, 2007
A mobile operating system installed on 1.5 billion devices. Simple to use; powerful enough for serious work.
“A user experience that even babies can figure out without being taught.” —Hitachi Design Team
The Asahi Shimbun/Getty Images
30. Shinkansen
Designed by Japanese National Railways, 1964
Japan’s bullet trains reach 200 mph and have recorded zero passenger fatalities.
“The high-speed train is the symbol of a combination of expertise in multiple design skills. Its impact on the planet shows that ‘responsible design’ and high tech and sustainable environment should be possible with new behaviors.” —Alok Nandi, founder, Architempo
31. WeChat
Designed by Tencent (Zhang Xiaolong), 2011
Integrating a host of essential mobile apps, WeChat has become users’ one-stop shop.
“An app that makes our life much easier.” —Yongqi Lou, dean of the College of Design and Innovation at Tongji University
32. Nest Learning Thermostat
Designed by Nest Labs (Tony Fadell), 2011
A thermostat that programs itself; as easy to use as the classic Honeywell model.
“Because the Nest ecosystem makes your home come to life with intelligence, in a highly integrated, easy-to-use way.” —Jason Ring, senior design manager, Uber
Brawn: Designer Dieter Rams made our list for both No. 33, Vitsoe’s 606 shelving system, and No. 63, Braun’s calculator. Anne Brassier—Vitsoe
33. 606 Shelving System
Designed by Vitsoe (Dieter Rams), 1960
Modular shelving that works anywhere and holds anything.
“This is one of the most—if not *the most*—functional and well-built designs I can think of. It fits into practically any interior, and truly lasts a lifetime. Like the Eames chair and Noguchi’s Akari lamps, it’s a timeless creation, one that is of clean design and impeccable quality.” —Spencer Bailey, editor-at-large, Phaidon
34. Skype
Designed by Skype, 2003
A videochat service so successful that it’s become a verb: to Skype.
“The ability to connect visually anytime and anyplace furthering opportunities for stronger connection and social human experience.” —Kathleen Brandenburg, founder, IA Collaborative
35. Modern Classics
Designed by Penguin (Jan Tschichold), 1952
Designed to cost no more than a pack of cigarettes and fit in a pocket.
“The decision of the British publisher Allen Lane to reproduce great writing in the inexpensive, easily portable form of a paperback book was a key catalyst of social mobility and self-improvement in the 20th century. From a graphic design perspective, the archetypal Penguin paperback is the one devised by the German typographer Jan Tschichold as Penguin’s head of design from 1947 to 1949.” —design critic and author Alice Rawsthorn
Courtesy of Adler Design
37. ClearRX
Designed by Deborah Adler, 2005
Clearly labeled drug containers use color coding and clever design to aid patient safety.
“Inspired by the need for safety, the drug delivery system was reformed around creating confidence in key consumer moments — it’s not a pill bottle as much as it is a system.” —Brandon Schauer, former head of enterprise design, Capital One
37. Mobike
Designed by Beijing Mobile Bike Technology, 2015
An elegant solution to the “last mile” problem: the first cashless, dockless bike share.
Photograph by Dan Saelinger for Fortune; Styling by Birte Von Kampen
38. Round Thermostat
Designed by Honeywell (Henry Dreyfuss), 1953
Honeywell is a conglomerate with 114,000 employees, annual revenues of $42 billion, and businesses ranging from aerospace to industrial control systems to chemicals. Yet the thermostat created by Henry Dreyfuss is so iconic and ubiquitous that, for many, the company has become synonymous with his design. And while Honeywell makes a plethora of digital and smart thermostats, the humble round thermostat—the design of which was inspired by the über-analog radio dial—is still in production today.
39. Stool 60
Designed by Artek (Alvar Aalto), 1933
“A seat, table, storage unit; democratic, cheap, stackable.” —Rebekka Bay, creative director, Uniqlo
40. Facebook
Designed by Facebook, 2003
For better or worse, Facebook connected the world and transformed advertising, politics, and society at large.
“Facebook (and its subsidiaries) has connected people and become a platform for a myriad of movements from political to social. Thanks to this platform, advertising and ecommerce has made way for massive digital sharing, click-bait, and the rise of the ‘influencer’ economy.” —Frog Design Team
41. Billy Bookcase
Designed by IKEA, 1979
The Billy embodies Ikea’s affordable design; the company has sold some 100 million to lit lovers worldwide.
“A Swedish design icon that is affordable and highly adaptive to the different needs and homes.” —Bas van de Poel, Creative director, Space10
Pride: Creator Gilbert Baker designed the rainbow flag in 1978, and it has since become the iconic symbol of the gay community worldwide. Anthony Behar—AP Images
42. Pride Flag
Designed by Gilbert Baker, 1979
“Iconic rainbow is unmistakable, infinitely customizable, and speaks pride for an increasingly wide range of LGBTQ+ people.” —Sara Cantor Aye, cofounder, Greater Good Studio
Photograph by Dan Saelinger for Fortune; Styling by Birte Von Kampen
43. Lia Pregnancy Test
Designed by Bethany Edwards + Anna Simpson, 2017
A home pregnancy test accidentally discovered in a bathroom trash can is something of a cliché in sitcoms and romantic comedies. But behind that plot point is a design flaw: Most tests are made from nonbiodegradable plastic and can’t be flushed. Inspired to find something environmentally sound, Bethany Edwards and Anna Simpson created Lia, a home pregnancy test produced from paper that disintegrates in water. The upshot is more privacy for women and less plastic waste.
Czgur/Getty Images
44. Super Mario Bros.
Designed by Nintendo (Shigeru Miyamoto), 1985
The first smash of the home console era sold more than 40 million copies.
“A masterpiece of horizontal scroll action. Contributed to massive expansion of the gaming industry [and had] a large impact on how so many people spend their time.” —Hitachi Design Team
45. Vélib’ Bike Service
Designed by JCDecaux, 2007
Paris’s e-bike share aims to cut traffic and emissions, and it rekindled the city’s love of cycling.
The Vélib’ project is a best practice in social design that goes beyond the limits of bicycle transportation. A project that stimulated Paris’s new urban experience and mobility change under a shared economy.” —Bas van de Poel, Creative director, Space10
46. Apple Watch
Designed by Apple, 2015
The power of an iPhone in a package not much bigger than a postage stamp.
“Before the Apple Watch, smartwatches were bulky wrist computers. Apple transformed this category into a fashionable accessory that improves people’s health.” —Bas van de Poel, Creative director, Space10
47. Bialetti Moka Pot
Designed by Alfonso Bialetti, 1933
As essential as the beverage it brews, it took espresso from coffee shop to stove top.
“Iconic coffee pot designed in Italy in 1933 and popular around the world. Easy to use on a gas or electric stove.” —Carole Bilson, president, Design Management Institute
48. Poäng
Designed by Ikea (Noboru Nakamura), 1974
Ikea continues to sell about 1.5 million of these elegant-yet-affordable chairs annually.
“A blend of Japanese and Nordic design that has democratized furniture design worldwide over the past 40 years, the Poäng is practical, adaptable, simple, and comfortable.” —Logitech Design Team
Photograph by Dan Saelinger for Fortune; Styling by Birte Von Kampen
49. Volkswagen Beetle
Designed by Ferdinand Porsche, 1938
They say you can’t outrun your past. Tell that to the VW Beetle, which pulled off one of the great reinventions of our time. Commissioned by Adolf Hitler to be an affordable “people’s car” for the citizens of the Third Reich, the Bug, as it’s now lovingly known, overcame its sinister origins to be embraced by hippies and Disney alike. Designed by Ferdinand Porsche, the undeniably cute little car uses a rear-mounted, 25-horsepower air-cooled engine to keep things as mechanically simple as possible.
50. Microsoft Office
Designed by Microsoft, 1990
Can you imagine doing business without Excel or PowerPoint?
“The most widely used desktop software and productivity tool is virtually unrivaled in the business space. Excel is the Kleenex of spreadsheets.” —Frog Design Team
51. Tupperware
Designed by Earl Tupper, 1948
Lightweight, reusable, and virtually unbreakable food containers: a product as innovative as the “party” model for selling it.
Photograph by Dan Saelinger for Fortune; Styling by Birte Von Kampen
52. View-Master Model F
Designed by Chuck Harrison, 1958
Chuck Harrison didn’t invent the View-Master, but he refashioned it from a bulky device aimed at photographers to a toy enjoyed by children and adults alike.
“A simple design for kids to see 3D images. Over 4 million sold and designed by the first African-American industrial designer to head up a large corporate studio.” —Carole Bilson, president, Design Management Institute
53. LifeStraw
Designed by Vestergaard Frandsen, 2005
A drinking straw with a self-contained filtration system, LifeStraw has been deployed in disaster regions around the world and has provided safe water to millions.
54. Raspberry Pi
Designed by Raspberry Pi Foundation, 2012
“A simple, single-board computer, designed to promote basic computer-science education in schools and developing countries. The product costs only $35 off the shelf, without peripherals like a screen, keyboard, or mouse. The company was founded in 2012 so that more people are able to harness the power of computing and digital technologies for work, to solve problems that matter to them, and to express themselves creatively. With millions sold to designers, makers, and tinkerers, the next generation of technology leaders is sure to have interacted with Raspberry Pi at some point in their development.” —Tanner Woodford, founder and executive director, Design Museum of Chicago
55. Flex-Foot
Designed by Van Phillips, 1971
The Flex-Foot’s carbon graphite prosthesis allows leg and foot amputees to run and jump by storing and releasing kinetic energy like a spring. Variants of the Flex-Foot are used by 90% of Paralympians.
56. Novel Hospital Toys
Designed by Hikaru Imamura, 2012
“In a world where our technology and its side effects can be frightening, these simple and empathetic toy blocks help prepare a child mentally and emotionally for what could otherwise be a very terrifying experience to receive the care they need.” —Brandon Schauer, former head of enterprise design, Capital One
The tenth anniversary issue of Life magazine, Nov. 25, 1946, features a photograph of a young girl reading the first issue. Herbert Gehr—The LIFE Premium Collection via Getty Images
57. Life Magazine
Designed by Time Inc., 1936
LIFE turned the medium of magazine on its head by putting more emphasis on photography than words. In its heyday from 1936 to 1972 it served as a visual document to the world’s most important events.
58. Leica M3
Designed by Ernst Leitz, 1954
The Leica M3’s super-bright combined viewfinder and rangefinder allowed photographers to better understand the images they would capture on film before clicking the shutter. Its system of interchangeable lenses is still used by Leica today.
59. Olivetti Lettera 32 Typewriter
Designed by Marcello Nizzoli, 1963
The Olivetti Lettera 22 was the top-ranked product on the 1959 list, and its 1963 successor, the Lettera 32, was recognized by the survey in 2019. While typewriters have been superseded by personal computers, the Lettera 32’s portability and ease of use make it an enduring classic.
60. Airtable
Designed by Airtable, 2012
Airtable is an online group-collaboration tool. Think of it like an Excel spreadsheet with more organizational features.
“Adopting everything you love about spreadsheets, combined with resolving everything you hate about spreadsheets, is where Airtable soaks its sweet spot.” —Allan Chochinov, New York School of Visual Arts
61. Forever Stamps
Designed by United States Postal Service, 2006
The Forever Stamp was inspired by a similar nondenominational stamp from the U.K.’s Royal Mail. It solves the problem of fluctuating mail postage rates for both the user and the postal service.
“Brilliant business model ensures they will always be the best price and relevant as long as the USPS exists.” —Sara Cantor Aye, cofounder, Greater Good Studio
62. Telephone Area Code
Designed by Bell Labs (Ladislav Sutnar), 1947
“The numerals that would allow the Bell Telephone system to expand its overall coverage were placed inside parentheses, an idea conceived by designer Ladislav Sutnar.” —Steven Heller, designer
Chris Mattison—Alamy Stock Photo
63. Braun Calculator
Designed by Braun (Dieter Rams + Dietrich Lubs), 1987
One of Dieter Rams’ most famous designs, this minimalist calculator is now probably more famous for inspiring the iOS software calculator.
64. Apple Pay
Designed by Apple, 2014
Digital payments authorized by your face or fingerprints. Combined with Apple’s “secure enclave” chip, it’s infinitely more secure than a traditional credit card.
65. Flyknit
Designed by Nike, 2008
The Flyknit knitting process creates a running shoe upper that is virtually seamless, highly breathable, and hugs the foot like a sock.
“This shoe marked a move away from conventional mass production, redefining manufacturing customization in lockstep with world’s move towards sustainability.” —Logitech Design Team
66. Orange-Handled Shears
Designed by Fiskars, 1967
Fiskars was the first company to make an ergonomic, plastic-handled scissor in 1967. More than 1 billion of the distinctive orange-handled shears have been sold since then.
Evan Agostini—Getty Images
67. Pokémon
Designed by Satoshi Tajiri, 1989
Pokémon was inspired by creator Satoshi Tajiri’s hobby of insect collecting. The original Game Boy game, released in 1996, inspired a television series, movies, manga, trading cards, and a theme park.
“It captures the attention and imagination of so many people.” — Barbara Barry, design strategist, Mayo Clinic School of Medicine
68. EpiPen
Designed by Mylan, 1987
EpiPen cocreator Richard B. Toren’s daughter was severely allergic to bee stings, and he had to carry a complex kit of vials and syringes in case she was stung. The device he helped create safely and simply delivered a dose of epinephrine (adrenaline) into a patient experiencing anaphylaxis.
69. Medical Drones
Designed by Zipline, 2014
Zipline uses drones to deliver blood, vaccines, and medicines to regions in Rwanda and Ghana that lack sufficient road infrastructure. Zipline currently flies more than 500 deliveries every day.
Buckminster Fuller in front of one of his geodesic domes in Long Beach in 1983. Bob Riha Jr.—Getty Images
70. Geodesic Dome
Designed by Buckminster Fuller, 1948
A hemispherical geodesic polyhedron sounds complex, but it’s simply a dome made from a lattice of triangles. Buckminster Fuller employed this form to create the geodesic dome, a structure that has scaled from greenhouses and small dwellings to biodomes and World Expo pavilions.
“Designed as a response to the postwar housing crisis, the geodesic dome is a formula to construct a robust domed shelter from whatever materials are available at the time. It has since provided sorely needed shelter for millions of people, many of them in desperate circumstances.” —Alice Rawsthorn, design critic and author
71. Tampon
Designed by Earle Haas, 1933
Women had used tampon-like materials for millennia to absorb their menstrual flow. But Dr. Earle Haas’s Tampax, with its sterile rayon/cotton material and applicator, made it safe and easy to use.
“The design of the tampon was one of the chief catalysts for the liberation of women during the mid- and late-20th century by freeing most women from the physical and hormonal constraints of menstruation.” —Alice Rawsthorn, design critic and author
72. 23 & Me
Designed by Linda Avey, Paul Cusenza, Anne Wojcicki, 2006
DNA testing is controversial. But 23andMe gives answers to some of the most significant questions we have about ourselves: Who are we? Where do we come from?
“It introduces a complex scientific idea in the context of everyday life.” —Barbara Barry, design strategist, Mayo Clinic School of Medicine
73. Dyson Bagless
Designed by James Dyson, 1980
The Dyson bagless vacuum cleaner took one of the most mundane household appliances and made it a status symbol.
“It was a great combination of design and engineering, successfully creating a space among established brands.” —José Manuel dos Santos, head of design & user experience, Signify
74. Netscape Browser
Designed by AOL, 2005
Web browsers look and work the way they do because of what Netscape did more than 25 years ago. Thank Netscape for innovations such as cookies, JavaScript, and the progressive loading of web pages.
75. Futura Typeface
Designed by Paul Renner, 1927
Once you know what the Futura family of typefaces looks like, you can’t escape it. The Calvin Klein logo? Futura Light. Best Buy? Futura Extra Bold. Louis Vuitton? Futura Medium. Not to mention Supreme, Nike, Red Bull, Gillette, Frosted Flakes, Domino’s Pizza…you get the idea.
76. SUICA
Designed by JR East, 2001
Suica is a rechargeable, contactless payment card for Japanese train lines. Interoperable with a number of train systems, stores, and kiosks, it’s accepted at more 476,000 points of sale. Nineteen years since Suica was introduced, the New York City subway system is only just testing a similar contactless system.
Focus on Sport/Getty Images
77. Air Jordan 1
Designed by Nike (Peter C. Moore), 1984
The design that took basketball shoes from the court to the streets and into pop culture. Its original black and red colorway was banned by the NBA for not being predominantly white.
78. Leatherman Pocket Survival Tool
Designed by Tim Leatherman, 1983
Leatherman’s original multi-tool contains 14 tools in one and is centered around a hardy set of needle-nose pliers. An essential for anglers, hikers, or use around the house.
79. Box Chair
Designed by Enzo Mari, 1971
“Design is dead” is a phrase Enzo Mari—equal parts artist, designer, intellectual, and provocateur—has been known to bandy about. His Communist beliefs permeate his works, including the box chair, which is made simply of tubular metal and perforated plastic.
80. Ultra Light Down
Designed by Uniqlo, 2011
Uniqlo’s ultralight down takes up very little space and is super lightweight, affordable, and warm.
81. Havaianas
Designed by Robert Fraser, 1966
Robert Fraser took inspiration from Japanese zori sandals to create the first rubber flip-flop.
“Simple, functional design, inexpensive, as close to barefoot feeling yet foot protection for all. Unlimited styles available today at every price level.” —Carole Bilson, president, Design Management Institute
82. Womb Chair
Designed by Eero Saarinen, 1948
The name says it all. Designer and former president of the iconic furniture seller, Florence Knoll, asked Saarinen for “a chair that was like a basket full of pillows.” The result fits the brief to a “T.”
83. PeaPod
Designed by Andrew Parkinson + Thomas Parkinson, 1989
One of the original online grocers, established before Jeff Bezos registered Amazon.com.
“With Peapod, this chore is a 45-minute task versus three hours. I gain two hours and 15 minutes of value back into my life on a weekly basis. That is 117 hours of more value in my life yearly.” —Brianna Sylver, president, Sylver Consulting
Courtesy of Kent Phillips/Disney
84. Disney MagicBand
Designed by Frog Design, 2013
“Frog’s work for Disney resulted in a connected, seamless, and overall improved theme park experience. It reduced lines, allowed over 5,000 people into the park faster, allowed quick access to a user’s digital wallet, acted as a hotel room and photo pass, and signaled to beloved Disney characters to greet the children as they made their way through the park. Add to that the elegant and beautiful design of the band itself.” —Andrew Zimmerman
Courtesy of Volkswagen AG
85. Volkswagen Type 2
Designed by Ben Pon, 1950
“Since the 1950s consistently delivering the people’s van, over five generations of product, with something for everyone: from a classic utility vehicle for tradespeople the world over to dreams of escape and adventure promised by 1960s ‘hippie buses’ and modern-day T5 ‘California’ models alike.” —Carole Bilson, president, Design Management Institute
86. Unix OS
Designed by Bell Labs (Ken Thompson + Dennis Ritchie), 1970
“Unix and its successors enabled and empowered the development of the open-source movement, which has fueled experimentation in software design.” —Alice Rawsthorn, design critic and author
Dylan: Michael Ochs Archives/Getty Images; Williams: Jamie McCarthy—Getty Images for Dior ; Hepburn: Courtesy Everett Collection;Cruise: Mary Evans/Ronald Grant/Everett Collection; Harry: Astrid Stawiarz—Getty Images; Smith: Joe Quigg for Ray-Ban via Getty Images; Beckham: Jacopo Raule—GC Images/Getty Images: Moss: Indigo—Getty Images
87. Ray-Ban Wayfarer
Designed by Raymond Stegeman, 1952
From Bob Dylan to Andy Warhol to Debbie Harry to Tom Cruise in Risky Business, the Wayfarer is the de facto shade of American cool.
88. Stokke Tripp Trapp
Designed by Peter Opsvik, 1972
A rebuke to all the plastic baby products that parents throw out after a month, the Tripp Trapp chair actually grows with a child.
89. Aravind Eye Hospitals
Designed by Dr. Govindappa Venkataswamy, 1976
“Aravind pioneered the application of sophisticated design principles to transform the lives of the poor in India, by addressing the issue of needless blindness at a cost, quality, and scale previously unimaginable. The Aravind model represents a high bar for the holistic application of design to an entire interconnected system of care that is adaptive, flexible, and unwaveringly user-centered.” —Robert Fabricant, cofounder and partner, Dalberg Design
90. Bitcoin
Designed by Satoshi Nakamoto, 2009
“Bitcoin wasn’t invented, it was designed so that a wide range of stakeholders—developers, investors, businesses, miners, individuals—all had incentives that reinforced adoption of a new digital currency, without any central issuer or governing authority. In just over 10 years since it was released, it is now worth nearly $200 billion and is used by millions of people in countries around the world. I don’t think any product in the history of the world has bootstrapped quite so effectively.” — David Kelley, founder, IDEO
91. National Park Map
Designed by Massimo + Lella Vignelli, 1977
“Visual, educational, authoritative, inviting systems-based information design about national treasures in the USA.” —Marcia Lausen, director, School of Design at UIC
Ferdinand Alexander Porsche, design-father of Porsche 911. Courtesy of Porsche AG
92. Porsche 911
Designed by Ferdinand Porsche, 1963
It’s a joke among motoring enthusiasts that the easiest job in car design is working on the Porsche 911, a car that has incrementally evolved since its introduction in 1965. The car available today is a lot bigger and massively more powerful, but it retains the essence of Porsche’s original design.
Photograph by Dan Saelinger for Fortune; Styling by Birte Von Kampen
93. Teema Tableware
Designed by Kaj Franck, 1952
A Scandinavian classic that’s as practical as it is beautiful: Every Teema piece is oven, freezer, microwave, and dishwasher safe.
94. LINN Sondek LP12
Designed by Ivor Tiefenbrun, 1972
The Platonic ideal of a turntable—the gold standard of home audiophiles.
“More than simply playing music.” —Yongqi Lou, dean of the College of Design and Innovation at Tongji University
95. Valentine Typewriter
Designed by Ettore Sottsass, 1969
Sottass says he picked the cherry-red color “so as not to remind anyone of monotonous working hours.”
Courtesy of IBM
96. IBM Logo
Designed by Paul Rand, 1956
“Paul Rand’s redesign of the logo and visual identity defined the computer and information ages in relation to the corporation.” —Steven Heller, designer
97. Telephone Model 302
Designed by Henry Dreyfuss, 1937
As part of the research that went into designing the 302, Dreyfuss masqueraded as repairman to learn more about how people used their phones.
98. Great Green Wall
Designed by Panafrican Agency of the Great Green Wall, 2007
“The epic design endeavor to plant and cultivate a 5,000-mile swath of trees and other plants across the southern edge of the Sahara Desert from Senegal in the West to Djibouti in the East is an inspiring, optimistic, and wildly ambitious attempt to address the damage caused by drought, deforestation, land erosion, the climate emergency, and the social, economic, and political problems they cause in one of the poorest parts of the world.” —Alice Rawsthorn, design critic and author
Courtesy of Armin Harris
99. IBM Mainframe
Designed by IBM (Eliot Noyes), 1952
Referred to within IBM as the Defense Calculator, the 701 was the company’s first mainframe—or large-scale computer—and laid the groundwork for Big Blue to become a dominant player in the market. Designed to serve the needs of the U.S. government, defense companies, and researchers, the machine was capable of performing 16,000 addition or subtraction operations a second.
Photograph by Dan Saelinger for Fortune; Styling by Birte Von Kampen
100. Blackwing 602 Pencil
Designed by Eberhard Faber, 1934
With a cult-like following among copy editors and stationery devotees, the Blackwing 602 is known for its motto: “Half the pressure, twice the speed.” The pencil’s original maker, German company Eberhard-Faber, stopped producing the design in 1998, but its legacy is now being continued by California Cedar Products.
Acknowledgments: This list was compiled by the Institute of Design at the Illinois Institute of Technology under the supervision of Denis Weil. Research was led by Todd Cooke and conducted by Ellesia Albert, Harini Balusubramanian, Jessica Jacobs, Mark Jones, and Martin Thaler.
A version of this article appears in the April 2020 issue of Fortune.
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fortune--2020-03-16--China’s coronavirus economic slump was even worse than feared

How early GPS gadget maker Garmin mapped out success against the likes of Apple and Google

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China suffered an even deeper slump than analysts feared at the start of the year as the coronavirus shuttered factories, shops and restaurants across the nation, underscoring the fallout now facing the global economy as the virus spreads around the world.
Industrial output plunged 13.5% in January and February from a year earlier, retail sales fell 20.5%, and fixed-asset investment dropped 24.5%. The unemployment rate jumped to a record 6.2% in February, when the outbreak worsened and much of the economy was shutdown.
The outbreak of deadly viral pneumonia in Wuhan dramatically worsened in January, prompting China to lockdown Hubei province, extend holidays and restrict travel and business across the country. That brought much of the nation’s economic activity to a halt in February, undercutting a stabilization seen in December. Gross domestic product is now all but certain to contract in the first quarter compared to the same period last year — the first time that has happened since comparable data begins in 1989.
“Covid-19 made the economy stop, from factories to spending,” said Iris Pang, ING Bank NV in Hong Kong. “As the coronavirus spread to almost everywhere, global demand and global supply chains will take a hit and will feedback to China’s manufacturers and exporters in March and April.”
Even as governments in China and some other Asian nations look to be getting their outbreaks under control, the coronavirus is now spreading rapidly in Europe, the U.S. and other parts of the world. That will likely hit demand for Chinese exports, lengthening the damage to firms and the economy.
“China’s containment of the epidemic is bearing fruit, but there is a challenge ahead in controlling the spread in other countries,” National Bureau of Statistics Spokesman Mao Shengyong said in Beijing after the data was released. “Growth of the global economy and trade may slow to some extent, which will exert some impact on China’s economic growth.”
Mao was optimistic for the economy in the first quarter, arguing that 40% of first quarter GDP happens in March, which he expected to be “significantly better” than the past two months.
“The second quarter is going to see a significant rebound from the first quarter,” Mao added. “As the policy effects become more visible, with more potent measures in the next step to counter the shock, we expect that the economy will be more sound in the second half of the year.”
Although there are increasing signs that companies and people are getting back to work in March, the economy is still not back to normal.
“China is bottoming out. But it’s not going to be a V-shaped rebound,” said Raymond Yeung, chief China economist at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group in Hong Kong.
2020 targets
The People’s Bank of China bank acted on Friday to support the economy, providing banks more money to lend by cutting the amount of cash they must place in reserve at the central bank. It refrained from cutting the interest rate of its medium-term loans on Monday in step with the Federal Reserve. The move signals it’ll maintain a targeted, measured easing approach for now, in spite of the bad economic data.
Policy makers may soon have to choose between easing more aggressively to hit a growth target that’s expected to be set at around 6% for this year, or continue with its current measured and targeted strategy. This contraction in the first two months will make that growth rate much harder to achieve, and will also affect the possibility of reaching other targets.
President Xi Jinping’s administration previously pledged to double the size of the economy from 2010 by the end of this year, and re-scheduling that goal could risk the leadership’s credibility. The government could consider delaying the target by three months to the end of the first quarter in 2021, which will make it more feasible, according to Ding Shuang at Standard Chartered Bank (HK) Ltd.
China is also aiming to eliminate extreme poverty, reduce pollution and cut risk in the financial system. The nation will win these “three critical battles,” according to Mao, but for this year, the two key targets will be returning the economy to the normal path and the anti-poverty campaign, he added later.
Infrastructure investment, which was hit hard by restrictions on construction and large shortages of migrant workers, was down 30.3% from a year earlier in the first two months. That was despite local governments selling almost a trillion yuan ($143 billion) in bonds since the start of the year to pay for infrastructure projects.
“We expect infrastructure stimulus to be much stepped up to support aggregate demand and tax and fee cuts to cushion the COVID-19 shock, especially now external demand will be much dampened by the global pandemic,” said Michelle Lam, greater China economist at Societe Generale SA in Hong Kong.
The spike in the jobless rate to a record 6.2% all happened in February, as January’s unemployment rate was only 5.2%, the same as in December. That rise was due to the coronavirus, with demand for factory workers declining, the NBS’ Mao said.
“The data are awful,” said Macquarie Group Ltd Chief China Economist Larry Hu. “It’s clear that coronavirus is both a supply shock and a demand shock. It hurts both internal and external demand. It brings both inflation and deflation pressure. As such, we don’t expect massive stimulus coming out anytime soon, but China will stay in the current rate-cutting cycle.”
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fortune--2020-03-16--‘We digitized ourselves’: Accenture CEO Julie Sweet on her company’s rapid-fire transformation

At age 42, Julie Sweet jumped from being a partner at an elite New York City law firm to becoming general counsel at Accenture. Now, a decade later, she’s running the place. We sat down with the new CEO of the $43-billion-in-revenue professional services firm¹ to learn what she’s seeing—and hearing—about the global economy today.
This edited Q&A has been condensed for space and clarity.
The digital decade
Prior to being named CEO of Accenture in September, you were CEO of the firm’s North American business.² How have your daily conversations changed?
Sweet: I’ve spent the last six months traveling the globe, meeting with over 70 CEOs and 100 other C-suite leaders and our clients in Europe, Asia, and North America. It’s been an incredibly intense time but exciting because when you do that in such a compressed time period, you hear consistent themes around the globe and across industry. One theme is that we are at an inflection point. For large companies, they are looking at 2020 as the decade of delivery on the promise of digital and technology. We spent the last five to six years experimenting, doing business cases, and now it’s about going quickly from vision to execution to material value.
It’s a very different mindset. CEOs are saying, “We’re not questioning more digital business. We’re not questioning that technology can transform us. But we need to get return on our investment.”
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CEOs and business journalists talk endlessly about “digital disruption.” How do you define the term?
I’ll first talk about what “digital” means because a lot of people equate “digital” with “technology.” Digital is really two things. It refers to a set of technologies, everything from artificial intelligence to the use of e-commerce. But digital is really about a different way of working, of making decisions, of partnering and reaching your clients, and so it’s also about how you do things. And the most successful companies really understand that going digital means changing how they work, how they engage, and how they make decisions.
But it’s the other half of the term—”disruption”—that frightens many: It may well mean they’ll be out of a job in five years. What do you say to clients to help them have that conversation with their workers?
What we say to our clients, what we do internally, and what we should all be doing with our communities is speak in terms of shared success. So when we have the conversation with the CEO that says, “Here’s how you need to use technology. It’s going to take away jobs,”³ we advise them to talk upfront with their employees about how many can be reskilled—and for those who likely can’t be reskilled, we need to ask, How can we help them get their new job? We believe that part of our responsibility is to have that conversation from day one. In client conversations, I’ve had over the last two weeks, it has been on the agenda with probably five of them.
Accenture has, of course, disrupted itself over the past decade. Over 65% of your business is now in digital, cloud computing, and security services.⁴ What did you learn from that renaissance?
Well, I think first of all, our renaissance, as you call it, is really two things: It’s shifting the services we offer clients, but it’s also how we operate ourselves. So 99% of what we do is now done in the cloud; we’re using the same platforms that we’re implementing with clients. We digitized ourselves.
What has the coronavirus outbreak taught us about global business?
It highlights the integration of the supply chain around the world and the dependencies. We’re spending a lot of time with clients thinking about their supply-chain strategy and helping them become more resilient. One of the big aha moments is how many large companies still don’t use collaboration tools and aren’t using digital technologies internally. They’re engaging with their customers, but they haven’t invested in the infrastructure that allows their employees to telecommute. That’s going to be a big area of opportunity to help clients.
Inside the M&A playbook
You’ve also been on a buying spree.⁵ How much of your growth is coming from that?
We will always focus most on organic growth, and we’ve been very consistent in terms of our capital allocation. If you look back over the last few years, around two percentage points of our revenue growth every year is from acquisitions. So we’re growing at a 9% compound annual growth rate. Seven of those percentage points are from organic growth; two from inorganic.
We acquire companies for one of three reasons, though sometimes all three are relevant. The first is to scale hot areas of the market. So a couple of months ago, we bought a fast-growing Chicago company specializing in data science and analytics, a very hot area. The second reason is to build our deep industry and functional skills. So we’ve made acquisitions focused on financial services and health care. And the third reason is to acquire complementary skills. So last year we bought Droga5⁶, which was just named the ad agency of the decade.
Large companies are looking at this as the decade of delivery on the promise of technology. Julie Sweet
Talk about that for a moment. Why are so many consultancies gobbling up ad, marketing, and design firms?
We’ve been doing it for 10 years, building the capability that’s behind Accenture Interactive. It’s about creating customer experiences, which require deep technology skills and design skills. How do you actually reach customers, how do you segment them? To answer those questions in a holistic manner requires both data science and creativity.
We were hired recently by Kimberly-Clark to change the relationship they have with moms around their baby-care products. Their chief growth officer said that she wouldn’t have hired Droga5 on its own or Accenture on its own. The combination is why they hired us.
The hard part is not just having those capabilities but also the scale behind them in terms of technology to serve major enterprises.
The people business
Speaking of scale, you’ve got more than half-a-million employees across the world.⁷ Will your workforce a decade from now be anywhere near as big, particularly as you continue to digitize operations?
We actually have constant change in our workforce because we build automation into everything we’re doing. We’re growing because we’re serving more clients, doing higher-value things. So it isn’t, like, “Oh, wait a minute, now we need to automate.”
So I don’t focus too much on how many people I have. I focus on, What are those people doing? And we do what we tell our clients to do: focus relentlessly on making sure that we’re using the most advanced technologies and reskill our people to use them. When we automated 40,000 jobs in our business-process outsourcing business, we reinvested 60% of the upfront savings to upskill those who had those roles. We invest $1 billion a year in training, reskilling, and leadership development—training over 300,000 people in the last three years alone.
And we have a growing business, which is why we’re able to do it.
Most important is that we’re transparent from the start. In this case, we said to our people, Help us automate what you’re doing now, and then we’re going to invest to upskill you. That’s why we have no change in our average 10-year attrition.
Photograph by Christie Hemm Klok
You’re one of just 14 women CEOs at a Fortune Global 500 company. There was a moment, when you were in your early thirties, that became a turning point for you in your mission to help other women navigate their careers. You were about to make partner at white-shoe law firm Cravath, Swaine & Moore—and there was a meeting at the firm about unconscious bias.
It was in 1999, and I can still see myself walking up to our conference-room floor. We had an old-fashioned conference room, big table. I know exactly where I sat. It was literally two weeks before they were going to make the partnership decision. Everything was fine. I go in, I sit down, and they have this facilitator who turns to me at one point and says, “Julie, you’re a senior woman in the world. Have you ever experienced any of these things, unconscious biases?”
I opened my mouth to speak … and I started sobbing. Big loud sobs, and I could not get myself under control. I got up, went back to my office, and shut the door. Maybe half an hour later, the first woman corporate partner, a good friend of mine, came in.
And she said, “Okay, the men have met. They asked me to come see if you’re okay.”
And she looked at me, and she knew. She knew there wasn’t some big scandal. Because at that very moment, when that woman asked me that, it was like everything kind of came crushing down: All the things that I had endured at that time to get to where I was.
And I do talk about it now because it was a turning point for me. And I thought, “Now that I’m going to be a partner, I have to make it so it’s not the same for other women.”
And it was something that I worked hard on as a partner, and it shaped who I am today. And as I’ve grown and learned, it became not just around gender⁸ but around all kinds of diversity.
Between the lines
(1) Annual revenues: Prior to the market’s dramatic March slide, surging revenues pushed Accenture’s market cap to a high of $137 billion on Feb. 19, up from around $56 billion in February 2014.
(2) First among equals: North America is Accenture’s largest market, accounting for 46% of the company’s 2019 revenues.
(3) Robot revolution? The Brookings Institution estimates that 36 million U.S. jobs will face “exposure to automation” by 2030, with about 70% of those at risk of being replaced by technology.
(4) The rise of digital: The share is up from around a third in 2015.
(5) Getting acquisitive: Accenture spent more than $6 billion on 129 acquisitions in its past six fiscal years.
(6) An ad, ad, ad, ad world: Accenture Interactive, the firm’s digital
“experience” agency, paid a reported $475 million for the Madison Avenue shop last spring. In the past two years, Accenture has purchased similar firms in Brazil, China, Denmark, France, Germany, Mexico, the Netherlands, Spain, Sweden, the U.K., and the U.S.
(7) Global workforce: Accenture passed half-a-million employees in late 2019, after its fiscal year ended. The company had 358,498 employees in fiscal year 2015 and 492,000 in 2019, according to Bloomberg.
(8) Doubling down on diversity: Accenture was ranked No. 1 on Refinitiv’s Global Diversity & Inclusion Index in both 2018 and 2019.
A version of this article appears in the April 2020 issue of Fortune with the headline “The Conversation: Julie Sweet.”
More must-read stories from Fortune:
—15 powerful women share the personality trait that’s key to their success
—Why Warren dropping out shouldn’t cause women to give up hope
—Fixing the corporate approach to addressing sexual harassment
—Funding for female founders increased in 2019—but only to 2.7%
—WATCH: The double burdens that hold women back
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fortune--2020-03-16--Sci-fi tech tackles climate change with fake trees

This article is part of a Fortune Special Report: Business Faces the Climate Crisis.
For two decades, Klaus Lackner has been fixated on trees and how they pull carbon dioxide from the air. What if, the Arizona State University engineering professor theorized, you could create a machine that worked like a tree—but a thousand times more efficiently—thereby reducing the effects of climate change?
In January, Lackner’s first such artificial tree—which looks less like a real tree and more like a supersize lamp—came off the manufacturing line in Boston, and, along with more than 250 others, will be installed near Phoenix. Unlike a real tree, which absorbs 10 tons of carbon in its lifetime, these mechanical trees may one day each collect up to 32 tons of CO 2 in a single year—the equivalent of what seven passenger vehicles emit annually. “We need to start cleaning up after ourselves,” Lackner says.
Fake trees may seem like a far-fetched solution to climate change. But today they’re one of many sci-fi ideas gaining momentum amid ominous scientific studies showing rising earth temperatures and increasing carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.
An artificial tree designed by Klaus Lackner of ASU sucks CO2 from air that moves through the device. Spencer Lowell—Trunk Archive
These out-there technologies are part of a scientific field called geoengineering, which is aimed at manipulating the environment to offset the effects of climate change. Unlike, say, solar or electric vehicles, whose widespread adoption would depend on changing consumer behavior and established industries, geoengineering technologies attack climate change directly—and, theoretically, have an impact more quickly.
“The next decade is going to be another decade of disappointment, and if we’re serious about preventing climate change, we need to explore all the options,” says Jesse Reynolds, who researches geoengineering as a fellow in environmental law and policy at the University of California at Los Angeles law school.
But critics argue that such technologies may make it more difficult to curb the core problem because they remove any incentive for humans to stop emitting greenhouse gases. If we cool the earth with new technology, then companies and people will fail to reduce pollution, they say.
“There’s a moral hazard of giving people an excuse to not do anything about climate change,” says Joanna D. Haigh, emeritus professor of atmospheric physics at Imperial College London and former director of the Grantham Institute – Climate Change and Environment.
Adding to the backlash is the fear that large-scale interventions can negatively change the earth’s natural systems by altering rainfall and weather patterns or causing flooding and drought. And some of the possible effects can’t simply be turned off.
Nevertheless, projects like the Marine Cloud Brightening Project, an international collaboration led by atmospheric scientist Robert Wood and University of Washington researchers, are pushing forward. The team has built powerful nozzles that would be installed on boats and spray 3 trillion particles of seawater each, hundreds of feet into the air.
The technology mimics an already known phenomenon in which exhaust from oceangoing ships creates streaks in marine clouds and cools the earth temperatures below them. Salt particles are thought to work similarly but are a more environmentally friendly alternative.
Computer models suggest that spraying just 20% of the earth’s clouds could cool the entire planet by two or three degrees Celsius, says Kelly Wanser, adviser to the Cloud Brightening Project and executive director of SilverLining, a nonprofit that’s pushing for funding for geoengineering projects. But Wanser admits that clouds are complicated and that it’s difficult to predict what will happen.
Scientists are also exploring the idea of fertilizing the ocean with iron sulfate to stimulate the growth of algae, the sea life that absorbs carbon dioxide and releases oxygen. In 2012, for example, an American businessman dumped iron sulfate off Canada’s Pacific coast that created an artificial algae bloom over as much as 10,000 square kilometers. But such efforts are controversial because algae compete with other aquatic life and can reduce fish population. Meanwhile, in February, researchers at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology published a paper saying, in fact, that kick-starting beneficial algae growth on a global scale is nearly impossible.
Meanwhile, researchers are studying whether building massive underwater sand berms where glaciers meet the ocean could keep glaciers from disappearing, thereby preventing sea levels from rising. The sand would form walls around the submerged glacial ice and, theoretically, keep chunks from breaking off. The scientists, who hail from Princeton University, Beijing Normal University, and Finland’s University of Lapland, are also considering building artificial islands and large pumping stations that would channel cold water under glaciers, which, on land, slide on a thin layer of ice, to slow their movement.
Another idea, pushed in a paper published by Swiss scientists in 2018, is that switching the color of all roofs to white in every major city could cool the earth by up to two or three degrees Celsius. New York City actually introduced rules for white roofs into its building codes in 2012, and volunteers have been painting tar rooftops in the Big Apple, as well as in Chicago and Los Angeles.
At Harvard University, scientists are taking a cue from volcanic eruptions, which naturally spray sulfur dioxide into the stratosphere and cool the earth below. The researchers want to spray a shield of mist made of calcium carbonate—found in chalk and seashells—into the stratosphere and reflect sunshine back into space. They plan to test the theory by using a balloon sent into the stratosphere to release the light-reflecting particles, and then, if it works, deploy high-altitude planes to do the same thing on a larger scale.
Advocates of geoengineering say it can bridge the current political impasse in the U.S. over addressing climate change. While conservatives may balk at regulating fossil fuels, they’re generally more open to the idea of fostering innovation through research.
In December, Congress approved a $1.4 trillion spending package that includes some funding for geoengineering projects. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the Department of Energy received at least $19 million for early-stage research.
Noah Deich, executive director of Carbon180, a think tank focused on carbon removal, says the key to the success of individual geoengineering projects will be largely determined by the market and not necessarily novel technologies. Companies that sell carbon-eating technology could generate revenue from existing incentive programs and additional ones experts expect will be implemented in the coming years. That landscape is starting to take shape. California already offers carbon removal credits and other incentives to companies that capture and bury harmful CO 2 underground—a technique that academic and government researchers deem safe.
Lackner, the artificial-tree designer, has high hopes that he can create a market for fake trees. He and Arizona State University signed a deal with Ireland-based Silicon Kingdom to manufacture his carbon-eating trees, install them on wind and solar farms, and then sell the liquid CO 2 the trees produce to beverage companies that want a supply of sustainable carbonation for their drinks.
The secret to economic success for Lackner’s tree, says Silicon Kingdom’s CEO Pol Móráin, may be its simplicity. The tree—which cost $30,000 to $100,000 each—require no special equipment to be installed or maintained, and they are small enough to mass produce and operate using solar or wind power.
Each tree is as about the size of a poplar, with carbon-absorbing “leaves,” or plastic-like discs, that feel like leather and look like shag carpet. The leaves drop down into the “trunk,” a barrel at the bottom of the system. Using heat inside the barrel, the tree converts the carbon gas to liquid CO 2 and then stores it underground using a series of small pipes.
Móráin says that a large carbon tree farm with 120,000 mechanical trees could capture 4 million tons of carbon annually. If 250 large-scale farms were created, they could suck up 3% of global carbon emissions, he says. “When we started, there was a lot of skepticism,” says Móráin. “But over the last six to seven months there has been a mindset change.”
A version of this article appears in the April 2020 issue of Fortune with the headline “Sci-Fi Tech Tackles Climate Change.”
More from Fortune’s Special Report on the Climate Crisis
—Plastic that travels 8,000 miles: The global crisis in recycling
—5 charts projecting the cost of climate change by 2100
—Big Oil’s Hail Mary
—Wall Street’s pressure on the fossil fuel industry is not aggressive enough
—Inside ‘Project Odessa,’ an experiment in greener fossil-fuel power
Subscribe to The Loop, a weekly look at the revolutions in energy, tech, and sustainability.


fortune--2020-03-16--Business is finally starting to reckon with climate change

This article is part of a Fortune Special Report: Business Faces the Climate Crisis.
At its core, business is about meeting needs. Your local deli is a neighborhood fixture because people crave delicious sandwiches. The tax prep industry exists because people hate to fill out 1040s. Big Oil was built to serve a modern world hungry for energy to power our cars and trucks. Before Netflix, we didn’t grasp how essential streaming movies could be. Whether big or small, timeless or newly imagined, these urgent demands are what drive businesses to innovate and grow.
Today, the world is confronting a colossal unmet need unlike anything we’ve grappled with in the past. The warming of our planet thanks to human activity is causing dramatic changes to the climate. According to the Global Carbon Project, emissions hit a new record of 43.1 billion metric tons in 2019—the third straight year of increases. If unaddressed, CO₂-driven warming is likely to alter life on earth in dramatic ways over the coming decades, and to come with a price tag of trillions of dollars in lost economic output. Finding solutions to this potentially existential threat is imperative.
There’s no getting around the fact that business, up to this point, has been a big part of the problem. Companies have flooded the planet with refrigerators, SUVs, and plastic soda bottles for decades, with little thought to the consequences beyond the bottom line. They’ve feasted on cheap energy from burning fossil fuels, and their lobbyists have battled legislation to incentivize change.
Subscribe to The Loop, a weekly look at the revolutions in energy, tech, and sustainability.
But there are signs that we may be reaching a turning point. The business world—far later than it should have, and still not as aggressively as it needs to—is finally beginning to face up to the climate crisis.
“I do think we’re seeing some exciting momentum,” says Helen Mountford, vice president for climate and economics at the World Resources Institute (WRI), a global research organization focused on sustainability. “Nowhere near enough, but there is meaningful change.”
As an example, Mountford points to the statement in December from 631 institutional investors managing more than $37 trillion in assets, urging governments to phase out coal power, put a price on carbon, and end subsidies for fossil fuels. Then there is the growing number of large companies around the world—826 at last count—that have taken on increased accountability for their own actions by signing up for “science-based targets” to reduce their carbon emissions under strict monitoring by NGOs.
Companies are responding to a new set of vital needs. Increasingly, consumers want to know they’re spending money with businesses that are on the right side of sustainability. And talented recruits are demanding that employers demonstrate their commitment to mitigating climate change. Not to mention that there are huge amounts of money to be made. As part of a project called the New Climate Economy, Mountford and her team calculated that there’s a $26 trillion economic opportunity in moving to a low-carbon economy. “Now is the moment to start to reboot,” she says.
In this Fortune Special Report, we explore the complexity of this crucial juncture for business and the planet. To get an inside perspective on how advocacy is shaping corporate behavior, we turned to author and activist Bill McKibben. In partnership with the Pulitzer Center on Crisis Reporting, we sent reporter Vivienne Walt and photographer Sebastian Meyer to Malaysia to investigate the struggling plastic recycling industry. And we asked veteran energy writer Jeffrey Ball to explore Big Oil’s high-stakes bet on carbon capture.
There are no guarantees when it comes to tackling climate change. But if business takes it one unmet need at a time, the possibilities are endless.
A version of this article appears in the April 2020 issue of Fortune with the headline “Business Faces the Climate Crisis.”
More from Fortune’s Special Report on the Climate Crisis
—Big Oil’s Hail Mary
—Plastic that travels 8,000 miles: The global crisis in recycling
—5 charts projecting the cost of climate change by 2100
—Sci-fi tech tackles climate change with fake trees
—Inside ‘Project Odessa,’ an experiment in greener fossil-fuel power
Subscribe to The Loop, a weekly look at the revolutions in energy, tech, and sustainability.