fortune--2020-11-04--Will the world’s biggest IPO face a valuation ding after its delay?

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Senator Mark Rubio didn’t need to seek help from the U.S. to pause Ant Financial’s IPO in Hong Kong and Shanghai—regulators in China have done it themselves.
On Tuesday, Chinese regulators in Shanghai suspended the Alibaba unit’s estimated $37 billion IPO, citing “changes in the financial technology regulatory environment and other major issues.” Concerns that Ant Financial was too lightly regulated have been long-standing.
So what may have tipped the scales just on the eve of an IPO? Well, per my colleague Robert Hackett, Alibaba cofounder Jack Ma spoke out against the incumbent banking system in a recent speech, “comparing its institutions to stingy pawnshops,” which apparently didn’t land so well with Chinese authorities. And, well, Ant Financial poses a potential threat to the government’s control and dominance.
The delay could also force Ant Financial to reshuffle some of its business operations and face a ding to its expected $300 billion-plus valuation. Chinese financial regulators drafted rules earlier this week cracking down on the micro-lending market that could hit the profits of companies like Ant Financial.
Oh. There’s also this: The rival to Alibaba’s food delivery business, Meituan, which is now worth $238 billion on the Hong Kong stock exchange, is reportedly weighing a secondary listing in China as soon as next year. The company, whose shares have more than tripled in the last year alone, is backed by Alibaba competitor Tencent. Alibaba and Tencent have adopted walled gardens in their ecosystems as they battle for dominance in China, with Meituan removing the former’s Alipay from its payment options. Don’t forget: Alibaba used to also be an investor in Meituan.
THE RED AND BLUE ELEPHANT IN THE ROOM: While U.S. presidential and Senate races remain unclear, some initiatives impacting the venture and tech industries have results in.
Most notably, companies like Uber, Lyft, Postmates, and Instacart won a vote in California that would allow them to continue classifying drivers as independent contractors rather than as employees. The latter classification would have resulted in more comprehensive benefits to gig-economy workers and forced the companies to reconsider their business models. The companies fought hard against it: Dubbed Prop 22, the campaign was the most expensive among ballot measures in the state’s history, with gig-economy companies paying some $200 million to help pass the initiative. The win has implications beyond California: States such as New York and Illinois have also considered laws classifying gig economy workers as employees.
Oregon, meanwhile, became the first state to decriminalize the possession of small amounts of cocaine, heroine, and methamphetamine whilst also legalizing psychedelics such as magic mushrooms for those 21 and over. Arizona, New Jersey, Montana, and South Dakota have voted to legalize recreational marijuana use. And Mississippi voted to legalize marijuana for medical use.
VENTURE DEALS
- Bukalapak, an Indonesian e-commerce firm, raised $100 million from Microsoft, GIC, and Emtek Group, valuing it between $2.5 billion and $3 billion, per Bloomberg. Read more.
- Human API, a San Mateo, Calif.-based company for sharing health data with companies, raised $20 million in Series C funding. Backers included Samsung Ventures, CNO Financial Group, Allianz Life Ventures, and Moneta VC.
- Reflektion, a San Mateo, Calif.-based developer of a customer engagement platform, raised $13.5 million from investors including London Technology Club, Clear Ventures, Intel Capital, Battery Ventures and Hasso Plattner Ventures.
- Math Global Foundation, a Singapore based firm behind a public blockchain company MathWallet, raised $7.8 million in extended Series A funding. Alameda Research led the round and was joined by investors including Multicoin Capital.
PRIVATE EQUITY
- Macquarie Capital and GCM Grosvenor agreed to acquire Alaska Communications, a provider of broadband, for about $300 million.
- Waterous Energy Fund plans to acquire a 40% additional stake in Osum Oil Sands, a Canadian energy company of which it already owns 45%, in a deal valued at C$126 million ($96 million). Read more.
- Battery Ventures agreed to acquire Cimatron and its subsidiaries, which operate Cimatron and GibbsCAMsoftware businesses, from 3D Systems Corporation (NYSE: DDD) for $65 million.
- AE Industrial Partners acquired and combined Linkware, a provider of software solutions and consulting services to federal government organizations, and PRE, a security and travel consulting services provider. Financial terms weren't disclosed.
- A consortium of investors led by Cerberus Capital Management plan to acquire and take private Dorel Industries (TSX: DII.B), a Montreal-based maker of car seats and bikes, for about $500 million.
- Benestar Brands, a portfolio company of Highlander Partners, acquired Miller Baking Company, a Milwaukee, Wis.-based manufacturer of Pretzilla branded soft pretzel bites and buns. financial terms weren't disclosed.
- Clearview Capital recapitalized Revo Brand Group, a Plymouth, Mn.-based designer of outdoor accessories that will operate in partnership with Vertikal Brands, a holding company established by Clearview Capital. Financial terms weren't disclosed.
- TorQuest Partners and Caisse de dépôt et placement du Québec acquired a majority stake in Barrette Outdoor Living, an Ohio-based manufacturer of fences, railings, decking and other outdoor products. Financial terms weren't disclosed.
EXITS
- Intel acquired Cnvrg.io, an Israel-based operator of platform for running machine learning models. Financial terms weren't disclosed. Read more.
- Warburg Pincus agreed to acquire Sweeping Corp of America, a Cleveland-based power sweeping company, from Soundcore Capital Partners. Financial terms weren't disclosed.
- Frontenac Company acquired Newterra Group, a water treatment company, from shareholders including XPV Water Partners and Angeleno Group. Financial terms weren't disclosed.
OTHERS
- Crown Holdings, a Yardley, Pa.-based designer and manufacturer of packaging products, is weighing a sale of its food can business that could fetch $2 billion, per Bloomberg. Read more.
- Itau Unibanco Holding, the Brazilian lender, is considering spinning off a majority of its 46% stake in and taking public XP, a Brazil-based financial services valued at about $23 billion. Read more.
- Stryker Corp (NYSE:SYK) won U.S. antitrust approval for its $4 billion deal to acquire Wright Medical Group (Nasdaq: WGMI), a Netherlands-based medical devices company, as long as it sells certain assets. Read more.
IPO
- Ozon Holdings, a Russian e-commerce firm, plans to raise $100 million in an IPO in the U.S. Sistema Venture Fund, Baring Vostok, and Index Ventures back the firm. Read more.
SPAC
- Reinvent Technology Partners Z, the second blank check company formed by Mark Pincus and Reid Hoffman, filed to raise $200 million for its IPO.
F+FS
- Peak Rock Capital plans to raise $1.3 billion for its third fund. Read more.
- Satori Capital raised over $102 million in commitments for its third fund. Read more.
- The Westly Group, a venture firm, plans to raise $250 million for a fourth fund. Read more.
PEOPLE
- Gridiron Capital added Rachel Eichelberger, Brynn Jackel, and Ryan Shearmire as associates.
- Steadfast Financial, a New York-based investment advisor, hired Karan Mehandru as managing director and Head of Venture Capital to build out and lead the firm’s venture practice. Mehandru previously served as a general partner at Trinity Ventures.
- 2040 Ventures added Neha Khera as a partner.


fortune--2020-11-04--Sports-betting stocks climb after three states back legal gambling

Trump ’ s odds of winning have surged in the past 48 hours , according to this data scientist ’ @ @

Companies that offer online sports gambling, including DraftKings, Penn National Gaming, and Flutter Entertainment, rallied Wednesday morning after a trio of states voted in favor of ballot measures aimed at legalizing sports betting and other gaming expansion.
Maryland voted to legalize sports and event betting at certain facilities, while South Dakota backed a proposition that would allow legal sportsbooks in the region that’s home to its casinos as early as next year. Louisiana approved a proposition that cleared a hurdle to allow sports betting. The trifecta of wins added to investor optimism in the growing industry’s potential to rake in billions more in revenue.
DraftKings was the biggest outperformer, as it rallied as much as 4.6% premarket. The gains were spread across the industry, with Penn National shares rising 3.2%. Flutter Entertainment, the owner of FanDuel, is on track for a record close in London after rising as much as 2.4%. The Roundhill Sports Betting & iGaming ETF, commonly-known by its ticker BETZ, is indicated to trade higher after posting its best day in more than a month on Tuesday.


fortune--2020-11-04--5 urgent problems in Techland for the next president to tackle

Biden received more total votes than any presidential candidate in U.S. history

This is the web version of Data Sheet, Fortune’s daily newsletter on the top tech news. To get it delivered daily to your in-box, sign up here.
There’s no clear news on the presidential race this morning, unfortunately, but there are plenty of items on the to-do list of the next president regarding tech.
The most obvious challenge: the dominance of the largest companies and the piecemeal efforts to rein them in. The new lawsuit against Google’s search business aside, there’s been precious little action to address other areas of concern, ranging from Apple’s app store policies to Amazon’s treatment of third-party sellers to Facebook’s manipulation of advertising. The House’s 449-page report on Big Tech and antitrust offered more than a dozen suggestions for action, including passing laws banning discrimination on tech platforms, limiting certain business combinations, and requiring interoperability across social networks. What’s needed is a healthy debate over the proposals.
China poses several challenges that need to be addressed, from both a national security and an economic perspective. The old free-market approach of allowing Chinese companies into U.S. tech spaces has not been reciprocated. And hackers working with the Chinese government have been stealing trade secrets and targeting pro-democracy movements for years. But the Trump administration’s disorganized reaction has been stymied in court. Many lawmakers are eager to act, but the continually amended responsibilities of the secretive Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) have not helped much. A president could do worse than appoint a blue-ribbon panel to straighten out this mess.
The pandemic has laid bare the state of America’s broadband infrastructure—and that state is not good for millions of people. One million kids live in “Internet deserts” where connectivity is unreliable, overpriced, or simply unavailable. Don’t forget the girls at the Taco Bell for Wi-Fi! And Land O’ Lakes CEO Beth Ford, speaking last week at Fortune’s Global Forum, called for $100 billion in government effort to close the broadband gap.
Unlike other countries, the U.S. has not made many of the most appropriate airwave bands available for 5G use and service so far is spotty or slow. 5G wireless promises to ignite a wave of innovation by exponentially increasing the speed of wireless and the number of devices connected. So-called midband spectrum has the capacity to support high speeds and the range needed for comprehensive coverage. An FCC auction of the C-Band next month will help but carriers still need a lot more airwaves more quickly.
Despite what any politician says, many 20th-century jobs are going away. Employment in coal mining has dropped 50% since 2012, while jobs in telecommunications, textiles, and other industries are forecast to shrink by 20% to 70%. At the Global Forum, Adecco Group CEO Alain Dehaze called on companies to emphasize reskilling workers whose jobs have become redundant. As the White House Council of Economic Advisers reported in 2018, many reskilling programs are already helping, but many gaps remain.
Those are just a few items that need to become higher priorities. Now back to counting the ballots.
Aaron Pressman
@ampressman
aaron.pressman@fortune.com
NEWSWORTHY
Misclassification reclassification. California voters appear to have sided with Uber and Lyft and approved Proposition 22 to allow the companies to continue to classify their workers as independent contractors. State legislators had moved to classify the workers as employees. But so-called gig workers will get a minimum hourly wage, new health benefits if they log a minimum of 15 hours a week, and medical and disability coverage for injuries suffered on the job. Uber's stock was up 12%, while Lyft jumped 16% in pre-market trading. Massachusetts voters approved an extension of the state's "right to repair" law to cover a vehicle's wireless telemetry data.
Nothing but the truth. Social networks were busy on Election Day trying to stop the spread of misleading information. Twitter added a warning label to a Trump tweet about stolen elections, while Facebook added a label disputing Trump's claim of having already won. The FBI is probing the source of millions of suspect robocalls that went out on Tuesday falsely telling voters that the election had been postponed.
The shine beneath thy starry eyes. Early reports are flowing in from beta testers of Elon Musk's Starlink service. Customers who pay $500 for equipment and $100 a month for service are seeing Internet download speeds of 120 megabits per second from the satellite-based service.
Plague detector. A neural network developed at MIT known as ResNet50 has been trained for a new and timely task. Researchers say the program correctly identified 97% of people infected with COVID-19 just by analyzing their coughing sounds. The main goal is to identify infected people who are not showing symptoms yet so that they can be tested, research scientist Brian Subirana says.
FOOD FOR THOUGHT
SoftBank's $100 billion Vision Fund made some large bets that didn't work out so well, like, say, WeWork. Now it's investing with a revised strategy of focusing on smaller and less developed companies. Wataru Suzuki and Christopher Grimes take a deep dive into the new approach for Nikkei.
The quiet shift in strategy, which brings the Vision Fund's approach closer to that of a traditional venture capital investor, may ease concerns over big, bold bets going sour, a factor that has left a major gap between SoftBank's market capitalization and the sum of its investments.
Bigger returns, in percentage terms, could also help SoftBank to attract co-investors, who have so far not committed to Vision Fund 2. The sovereign wealth funds of Abu Dhabi and Saudi Arabia were big backers of the first fund.
At the same time, it highlights the smaller role the Vision Fund is playing within SoftBank, which has recently begun investing in large, publicly listed tech companies via a separate subsidiary.
IN CASE YOU MISSED IT
The dollar, Bitcoin soar as the markets contend with a dreaded, contested election By Bernhard Warner
14 Twitter and Instagram accounts you should follow for election news By Jeff John Roberts
November is historically the best month for investors in an election year. Will 2020 be different? By Anne Sraders
The world’s largest surveillance system is growing—and so is the backlash By Grady McGregor
6 new books to read in November By Rachel King
(Some of these stories require a subscription to access. Thank you for supporting our journalism.)
BEFORE YOU GO
A great and fully diverting trend going around on Twitter: Show off four books that had the biggest impact on you as a kid. I first noticed a post by Microsoft's senior cloud advocate (and former tech journalist) Christina Warren, who picked Charlie and the Chocolate Factory, Tales of a Fourth Grade Nothing, Ramona Quimby, and Bridge to Terabithia. Excellent choices! From Christina's tweet, you can read even more. I posted my own selections, but I'm sad I didn't have a cover of the brilliant Encyclopedia Brown handy.


fortune--2020-11-04--Uber and Lyft shares soar after a California labor-protections vote goes their way

Shares in ride-hailing giants Uber Technologies and Lyft soared in premarket trading on Wednesday, after voters in California approved a ballot initiative that the two companies had thrown enormous resources into supporting. The initiative shields so-called gig-economy companies, including Lyft and Uber, from a new law that would have treated their drivers as employees eligible for a slew of benefits rather than as independent contractors.
Uber’s stock was up 12% to just over $40, while Lyft jumped 16% to hit $30 after California voters backed Prop 22, which had been underwritten by the two companies as well as Instacart, DoorDash, Postmates, and others to the tune of $200 million.
While Prop 22 would extend a few new perks to gig-economy workers, including a small stipend to help pay for health insurance, it does not include benefits such as paid sick leave, unemployment insurance, and other basic protections that workers receive under California labor laws. And that fact, investors believe, will protect these companies’ basic operating model in the country’s most populous state.
“In essence the underlying business models for Uber and Lyft were hanging in the balance if Prop 22 did not pass in California to keep the contractor model,” Wedbush analyst Daniel Ives wrote in a research note Wednesday morning.
According to Wedbush, Lyft gets about 16% of its revenue in California; for Uber, it’s 5% or so. But the greater fear for Wall Street was that other states and cities would give gig workers the protections Prop 22 aimed to thwart.
Prop 22 was submitted as an alternative to Assembly Bill 5, a bill that was signed into law and took effect in January, and made it harder for some companies to classify workers as independent contractors rather than employees.


fortune--2020-11-06--T-Mobile will extend fast 5G service nationwide in 2021, pressuring rivals

T-Mobile will offer nearly nationwide coverage on its super-fast 5G network by the end of 2021, company executives said on Thursday, a move that could pressure rivals Verizon and AT&T to keep pace.
At the end of next year, the network will blanket an area where 200 million people live, the company promised. Previously, it had said that its network, which is currently available to 30 million people, would expand to a potential market of 100 million people by the end of 2020.
The planned growth in coverage is partly a result of T-Mobile acquiring Sprint earlier this year. It gave T-Mobile more airwaves that could provide higher 5G speeds.
“We’re off to the races and came out of the blocks super quick,” Neville Ray, T-Mobile’s president for technology who is overseeing the 5G rollout, tells Fortune. “We’re now adding on top of that (more of the spectrum) we secured in the combination with Sprint. That’s moving really, really fast. Thousands of sites on air today, thousands in construction, and thousands more ready to go into construction.”
Verizon has deployed its 5G using higher frequencies than T-Mobile’s that don’t travel as far and only in parts of 55 cities. Analysts say Verizon’s network covers about 2 million people so far. AT&T hasn’t said much about its fast 5G plans lately, but it has coverage in parts of 35 cities.
With the latest iPhones and Samsung Galaxy phones both now compatible with 5G, a growing number of consumers are now able to get 5G service. Still, there aren’t many apps that take advantage of 5G speeds yet and most consumers stream their music and video instead of downloading it.
T-Mobile’s 5G promise for 2021 came as the company reported third-quarter earnings that surprised analysts. Revenue jumped 74% to $19.3 billion thanks to the Sprint merger that closed in April. Those sales were nearly $1 billion more than analysts expected.
Meanwhile, T-Mobile’s profits of $1.00 per share were almost double what Wall Street had forecast. T-Mobile’s stock jumped 6% to $124.75 in after-hours trading on Thursday, an all-time high.
The carrier’s higher-end 5G network offers speeds averaging over 300 megabits per second, about six-to-eight times faster than the average 4G speed and fast enough to download a high-definition movie in under one minute. T-Mobile also offers much slower 5G service via low-band airwaves in most of the country.
The challenge for Verizon and AT&T is that they don’t own many airwave licenses in the mid-band. Both have deployed 5G technology in low-band airwaves like those used for 4G, but that provides minimal speed increases. And both have deployed high-frequency 5G, but coverage is minimal. The Federal Communications Commission is auctioning off more mid-band spectrum starting next month but that could take years to deploy.
“In 5G, T-Mobile won’t just catch Verizon on network quality; we expect they will pass them by,” longtime industry analyst Craig Moffett at MoffettNathanson Research, wrote after the announcement. “Worst-to-first stories are rare. You don’t have to believe that 5G is ‘the next big thing’ to believe that T-Mobile itself is, well, ‘the next big thing.’”
Still, the ad industry’s self-regulatory board on Thursday chastised T-Mobile for overpromising its 5G service in recent TV commercials. T-Mobile agreed to drop claims that it had the “best” or “most reliable” 5G network for now.
One reason that T-Mobile can deploy mid-band 5G more quickly and more cheaply than its rivals is that it can spread coverage by adding new radio gear on its existing cell towers. Deploying high-frequency 5G typically requires building entirely new small cell sites that blanket urban areas.
“I’m not trying to build hundreds of thousands of small cells,” Ray says. “That’s going to decades to complete.”


fortune--2020-11-06--3 key takeaways from Uber’s latest pandemic-impacted quarter

Uber’s latest earnings reinforce two things about its business during the pandemic: People are still hesitant to book rides, and they’re increasingly having their food and groceries delivered.
Uber Eats, Uber’s delivery business, is benefiting from a “massive structural shift in consumer behavior,” Uber CEO Dara Khosrowshahi said during a conference call with investors on Thursday. “Consumers are quickly becoming accustomed to the magic of having anything delivered to their door in half an hour.”
Uber on Thursday reported $3.1 billion in third-quarter revenue, slightly below analyst forecasts of $3.2 billion. The company lost $1.09 billion, a stunning amount, but a slight improvement over the $1.16 billion it lost during the same period last year.
Uber had 78 million monthly active users at the end of the quarter, down 24% year-over-year. But that marked a 41% improvement from the previous quarter, showing signs that some people are returning to the service after sitting out during the early days of the pandemic.
Following the earnings report, Uber’s shares dropped more than 3% in after-hours trading. But during the investor call, they recovered slightly to $41.50 per share, or down 1% after gaining more than 2% in regular trading.
Here are three key takeaways from the earnings report.
Prop. 22 will expand beyond California
Khosrowshahi praised this week’s passage of Prop. 22, the California ballot initiative that his company supported, that lets it continue classifying its workers at independent contractors. The measure saves gig companies big costs that they would’ve had to spend on paying employees and the full benefits that come with them.
He also said the company intends to “loudly” advocate for new laws like Prop. 22 worldwide.
“We think over the long term [this model is] going to win,” Khosrowshahi said.
Uber expects new benefits, including a guaranteed minimum hourly wage and health benefits, to raise its costs about 5%, much of which it expects to pass on to its customers. Khosrowshahi said he doesn’t expect lower demand for rides because of rides becoming more expensive.
Food delivery continues to boom
The star of the third quarter, as it was in the previous quarter, was Uber Eats. The unit’s revenue jumped 125% year-over-year to $1.45 billion, marking the second sequential quarter during which sales more than doubled.
Khosrowshahi said the company has managed to increase its profits, excluding certain expenses, on each delivery by reducing discounts and by virtue of customers spending more on their orders. During the quarter, Uber Eats’ lost $183 million, excluding certain expenses, a 42% improvement over the same period last year.
Eats also recently started letting merchants buy ads nationwide on its app. Khosrowshahi expects the ads to help improve the unit’s otherwise lower profit margins from grocery and pharmacy delivery.
The delivery business will become profitable, minus certain expenses, next year, Khosrowshahi promised.
Ride-hailing still lags
Uber’s core ride-hailing business, under strain from the pandemic, is showing signs of recovery in some markets.
“The U.S. has been an overall drag on our global recovery,” Khosrowshahi said. “But we have some bright spots, even in the U.S..”
Revenue from rides fell 53% year-over-year to $1.37 billion, an improvement over last quarter’s 67% decline.
Khosrowshahi said that rides are increasing in some cities as people return to commuting. In New York City, for example, gross bookings, or the money Uber collects before paying drivers, increased about 63% in October compared to year-ago levels.


fortune--2020-11-05--Feds seize $1 billion in Bitcoin from mystery man ‘X’

The U.S. Justice Department announced on Thursday it has seized nearly 70,000 Bitcoins from a person the agency would describe only as “Individual X.”
The news is remarkable because of the value of Bitcoin seized—the haul is worth around $1.05 billion based on today’s Bitcoin price of $15,000—but also because of the timing and the mysterious nature of the seizure.
According to a Justice Department complaint, the digital wallet holding the Bitcoins belonged to a hacker who stole them from the operator of the Silk Road, a notorious black market website that acted as a giant online bazaar for drugs and other criminal activity. The federal government took down the Silk Road and arrested its owner—who is now serving life in prison—in 2013.
The Justice Department complaint says IRS agents reviewed the hacker’s activities earlier this year with the help of a cryptocurrency forensics firm. That firm, Chainalysis, published a blog post detailing how it analyzed the Bitcoin blockchain—a tamper-proof public ledger of transactions—to track the hacker’s activities.
The blog post includes the graphic below, which shows the stolen Bitcoins moving to different wallets, including one transaction in which the hacker moved 101 Bitcoins to a now-shuttered criminal exchange called BTC-e:
According to a person familiar with the investigation, the hacker’s robbery of Silk Road—which took the form of 54 transactions in less than 24 hours—took place in 2012. Meanwhile, the transfer of 101 Bitcoins took place in 2015, with no further transactions after that.
This raises the question of why the so-called Individual X hasn’t touched any of the funds, even as Bitcoin has soared in price. There appear to be two possible explanations: The person is a wealthy individual who did not need to sell any of the Bitcoins, or else the person is in prison without access to a website needed to transfer the funds.
The source familiar with the investigation said it is significant the complaint was filed in San Francisco, and that Individual X signed a consent decree. This implies the person in question is located in Northern California and is cooperating with law enforcement—as does the fact the Justice Department was able to seize the Bitcoin, which could only have occurred if the person provided the password or “private key” needed to transfer Bitcoin funds.
As for why the Justice Department didn’t name the individual, the source speculated it was because the person could be at risk of violent retaliation from criminals tied to the Silk Road.
“They’re not in the safest business in the world,” the source said.
The Justice Department did not immediately respond to a request for comment as to whether Individual X is in prison. Nor did the agency state if a criminal complaint—as opposed to the civil one unveiled today—will be forthcoming. The lack of any criminal complaint may suggest Individual X is already incarcerated and may have agreed to turn over the Bitcoin as part of a cooperation arrangement with authorities.
The Justice Department seized not only 69,370.22491543 Bitcoins from Individual X, but the same amount in three spinoff currencies known as Bitcoin Cash, Bitcoin Gold, and Bitcoin SV. Together, those other currencies are worth around $30 million.
The government hasn’t announced what it will do with the seized Bitcoins, but in the past it has sold them though auctions run by the U.S. Marshals Service, with the proceeds primarily going to law enforcement agencies.
More must-read finance coverage from Fortune:


fortune--2020-11-05--Democrats suffer big losses in state legislatures during a crucial year for redistricting

As the results of Election Day head into their third day of counting, Democrats are inching close to a presidential victory, and the dream of flipping the Senate is still alive thanks to encouraging returns in Georgia. But any victory that emerges from this week may be a hollow one, as the consequential balance of power in state legislatures across the country remains in the hands of Republicans.
Heading into the election, Democrats were counting on record-breaking fundraising and a vulnerable GOP to flip a number of state legislatures in a crucial Census year. That would have allowed Democrats to redraw unfavorable congressional and state legislative maps that would influence election results for the next decade. Instead, it’s the Republicans that will do just that after Democrats seem poised to miss nearly all their statehouse targets.
Democrats lost key races in the New Hampshire state House and Senate, which flipped back to GOP control, and suffered defeats in Texas, North Carolina, and Florida. Democrats will remain blocked from having any say over the mapmaking in those states after failing to flip those legislatures, which could combine for 82 congressional seats by 2022.
Democrats hoped to flip 10 legislative chambers this year but look set to fall short in all of them except, potentially, the Arizona House and Senate. All in all, the results mean Republicans will control 59 out of the country’s 98 partisan chambers—Nebraska has just one nonpartisan legislative chamber. And Republicans will control both the House and Senate in 24 out of 36 states that will draw district lines for U.S. Congress, the state legislature itself, or both, according to the National Conference of State Legislatures.
Tim Storey, the conference’s executive director, called it a “remarkably status quo election in the U.S. states.”
“It looks like this will be the least party control changes on Election Day since at least 1944 when only four chambers changed hands,” he wrote Wednesday in a blog post.
The results appear to mirror those of the GOP’s presidential and congressional elections, where Republicans performed significantly better than expected. Increased turnout for President Trump additionally saw the GOP bat away Democrats’ challenge to convincingly flip the Senate and even saw Democrats lose seats in the House despite being heavily favored to increase their majority.


fortune--2020-11-05--The election might be top of mind but 234,000 people are dead, with many in swing states

Good afternoon, readers.
I imagine that there’s a significant amount of readers who are focused on a certain election going on right now.
That’s fine (and I’m not immune to that anxiety.) But we’ll still do our job and report on what’s actually happening, right now, in the reality of Americans’ lives as a pandemic continues to rage. And there are currently more than 234,000 people who have died from COVID-19, according to Johns Hopkins.
And things are getting worse. The Associated Press reported on Thursday that coronavirus cases are climbing to some 86,000 more instances on average. That’s a surge of some 45% compared to a few weeks ago.
As has been the case over the course of this year, certain people, and certain states, have been disproportionately affected.
Let’s look at some of the most afflicted. Arizona authorities reported more than 2,800 cases and 28 new deaths on Thursday alone. Georgia? A 34% surge in the past two weeks. Pennsylvania is absolutely wild with a total case load of more than 220,000 and a massive spike in daily cases in the past few weeks.
These states are echoing increases all across the country. The vote numbers are critical. And they could change how the country deals with this unprecedented pandemic. But let’s not lose track of the very real human tragedy underway as many of us are glued to our screens.
Read on for the day’s news, and see you next week.
Sy Mukherjee
sayak.mukherjee@fortune.com
@the_sy_guy
DIGITAL HEALTH
How MIT researchers are using A.I. to fight COVID. Can a computer predict COVID via cough? Well, if you believe initial (emphasis on the initial) results from an MIT study... Yeah, maybe. A study published in the journal IEEE Open Journal of Engineering in Medicine and Biology suggests that, by using a voice model, recording a cough can distinguish between a "forced cough" and a not-so-forced cough via cell phone recordings. The study authors claims a sensitivity and specificity (those are the false positive and false negative rates) of more than 90% each. (Fortune)
INDICATIONS
The promise and peril of Biogen's Alzheimer's candidate. Biogen stock spiked more than 40 percent yesterday on news that the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) would make aducanumab, its experimental Alzheimer's drug, one of the first to actually have a serious chance of regulatory approval. This would have wide-reaching implications for how the FDA actually works given that there are worries that an approval for, what some critics say is a relatively unproven treatment, could shift the agency's priorities. The flip side is that there isn't a single approved treatment for the underlying causes of dementia and something is better than nothing. Much more on this in the coming weeks.
The science of COVID vaccines. As COVID vaccines potentially reach the beginning of the regulatory end, I have a writeup for readers on where the science stands. You can traverse through all sorts of fun terms like mRNA vaccines, biological elements targeting spike proteins, and much, much more right here.
THE BIG PICTURE
A.I. is changing drug discovery. Here's how. I really want to highlight this because it's, frankly awesome. This week on Fortune’s Brainstorm podcast, we explored the technology that’s helping fight COVID-19.
The number of people infected with coronavirus continues to mount - as does the pressure on scientists and researchers to find a vaccine. Today, Brainstorm (the awesome podcast I'm referring to) is talking about the technology that’s enabling this important work.
Fortune's Brian O’Keefe speaks with Nvidia’s VP and General Manager of Healthcare. The company’s A.I. platforms are driving not only the search for a vaccine, but also developing therapeutics, COVID-19 testing, and more.
Then, Michal Lev-Ram points out that even once a vaccine is discovered, governments have to figure out the logistics of distribution. Plus, there’s an added challenge of public skepticism around even receiving the vaccine. Tech companies are tackling these problems too. Lev-Ram speaks with Qualtrics President Zig Serafin. Listen to the episode here. No, seriously, go do that. You won't be disappointed.
https://link.chtbl.com/FortuneBrainstormPodcast?sid=Newsletter
REQUIRED READING
Who won the election? Putin and Xi, by Jeremy Kahn
Stocks historically performed under a divided Congress, by Anne Sraders
Americans rally in protests and rallies during the election, by Danielle Abril


fortune--2020-11-05--Is gridlock really ‘nirvana’ for stocks? Investors should be wary of these four potential perils

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The stock market dodged a bullet when the Blue Wave––a Biden victory and a Democratic takeover in the Senate––didn’t materialize. But ducking the specter of more taxes-and-regulation didn’t erase the fundamental problems weighing on equities before the election. Indeed, investors face two threats, that taken together, pose risks as grave as at any time in the past century. First, shares overall are so hugely expensive that history tells us they’re far more likely to fall than to soar. Second, an unusually large number of lurking spoilers (potentially devastating shocks from more lockdowns to soaring federal debt) could sap the strength that must return for stocks to prosper: Businesses’ capacity to generate strong growth in earnings.
To be sure, Wall Street’s pundits and market strategists, along with plenty of journalists and even some top academics, are touting divided government gridlock as great news for the markets. My friend Jim Cramer of CNBC praised gridlock as “nirvana for growth stocks,” while revered economist Jeremy Siegel of the Wharton School pronounce the election split “excellent for the economy and excellent for the markets,” predicting big stimulus and infrastructure packages that will buoy stocks.
The markets were clearly nervous about the prospects big tax increases if Biden took the presidency and the Democrats gained control in the Senate to match their majority in the House. (One caveat however: There are still five Senate races that have yet to be called, making it not impossible that the Democrats could reach a tie in the Senate.) Biden had pledged to raise the corporate income tax from 21% to 28%, and impose a 39.5% levy on capital gains over $1 million, both big negatives for the markets. From October 11 to 30, the S&P dropped 7% as Biden and blue Senate candidates expanded their leads in the polls. But then, a tightening race lifted the S&P by 3.1% through Election Day, followed by more gains on November 4 and 5 that swelled the relief rally to 7.5%, capping the best 4-day performance since the snapback from the mid-March lows. At mid-afternoon on November 6, the S&P stood within 2% of its all-time high posted on September 2.
That jump looks great for people who own stocks. But it darkens the cloud over the market’s future by making the already super-expensive S&P 500 even pricier. Once again, those towering valuations are the first of our two classes of danger. At the close of 2019, S&P profits hit a record of $39.43 based on the trailing four quarters of GAAP earnings. Because that number was so elevated as a share of revenues and shareholders equity, it looked like profits would “revert to the mean” by falling, or at least going flat.
The best measure of “sustainable” earnings-per-share is the number used in the Cyclically-adjusted price-earnings ratio created by Yale economist Robert Shiller. The CAPE calculates an adjusted P/E that’s a great guide to whether shares are over or underpriced. Since a profits bubble like the one experienced last year makes stocks look like a bargain, and a temporary collapse creates the illusion they’re exorbitantly priced, Shiller uses a 10-year, inflation-adjusted average to get a normalized number. Today, Shiller’s adjusted figure for S&P 500 earnings-per-share is just under $110. With the S&P at 3518, the Shiller P/E is 32. That reading matches the peak just before the crash of 1929, and was only significantly exceeded once in the past 90 years, during the tech bubble of 2000.
By the Shiller measure, stocks look really, really rich, signaling that future returns will be either negative or near-zero, adjusted for inflation. Of course, the Wall Street bulls want you to believe that a surge in earnings that not just regains the heights of 2019, but keeps waxing in double-digit from there, fully justify what they acknowledge to look like challenging valuations.
It’s true that S&P profits staged a comeback in the third quarter to $35. But that’s still 11% below Q4 of 2019, and analysts are predicting much lower readings of around $28.50 over the next two quarters. Even their forecasts, which are generally overly optimistic, don’t see earnings getting back to last year’s levels until the middle of next year. It won’t happen. Why? Because the economy won’t match the 2019 output in goods and services, according to projections from the Congressional Budget Office, until the final quarter of 2022.
Since the economy will just regain lost grounds, profits can only beat the 2019 all-time record by taking a much bigger share of national income. At the close of last year, corporate earnings were absorbing 7% of GDP, well above their below-6% mark over the past half-century. They’d have to break that mark and go higher for the bulls to be right.
The more expensive equities get, the more prices teeter on a knife edge because they’re increasingly vulnerable to economic shocks that can send them crashing––the second big threat to equities. The number and ferocity of storms that could hit the U.S. is dangerously high. Here’s what I call the Perilous Three. The first is the most obvious: Another sweeping lockdown if the pandemic doesn’t retreat soon, especially since Biden has promised to take much stronger action than Trump. We’re already seeing severe restrictions re-imposed in Europe that’s hitting our exporters. With the U.S. witnessing a record 100,000 new cases a day, our tourism, hospitality, restaurant, and airline industries could be facing many more months of pain, spotlighted by giant losses.
Second, interest rates have been ticking up of late. From early August, the 10-year treasury yield rose from .5% to .86% before retreating when uncertainty over the election’s outcome caused a flight to quality. The CBO is predicting rates to rise only to around 1% next year. But that forecast could easily be wrong. “Real” interest rates typically track GDP, and if economic growth returns to 2% in late 2021 and 2022, it’s highly possible the 10-year yield (which includes a premium for inflation), could rise well above 2%. It was paying 3% as recently as the end of 2018. The markets tend to freak out when real rates rise. It may not happen, but if we get renewed prosperity, it isn’t unreasonable to forecast that we’ll get much higher yields as well.
Third, the markets have been spiking and retreating of late on the careening prospects for billions more in stimulus. Enhanced unemployment insurance, aid to small businesses designed to help them keep employees, and cash payments to families are an important buffer to preventing bankruptcies and foreclosures, and easing pressure on lenders. But the trillions lavished on assistance to counter the pandemic also comes at a high cost few are addressing: An explosion in federal debt. The CBO projects that by the close of 2021, federal debt will jump by $5.1 trillion from $16.8 to almost $22 trillion, or 104% of GDP. To finance those shortfalls, the Treasury is issuing bond with maturities of just a few weeks. If rates suddenly spike, interest expense will soar, potentially causing a debt crisis and mandating big tax increases. Or, the buildup in debt will cause foreigners crucial to funding our deficits in demand higher rates, mainly on the risk that the dollar will keep falling and cutting interest payments translated into their own currencies.
Of course, America may be able to put off the reckoning for years to come, if those overseas borrowers keep loading up on Treasuries. But the risk is still there, and the trillions spent to blunt COVID-19, with more to come, keeps sharpening that risk.
Stock prices are ignoring the Perilous Three, and the Perilous Fourth, those gigantic valuations. Taken together, this mix may not be nirvana at all.


fortune--2020-11-05--Bentley to switch from roaring 12-cylinder cars to electrics

Bentley Motors will ax the roaring 12-cylinder combustion engines that shaped much of the British luxury-car maker’s 100-year history to focus on electric vehicles, the latest seismic automotive shift driven by stricter emissions rules.
Bentley will offer only hybrid and electric cars by 2026, and switch its entire lineup to fully-electric vehicles four years later, the Crewe, England-based manufacturer said Thursday in a statement.
The company will become “a new, sustainable, wholly ethical role model for luxury,” CEO Adrian Hallmark said.
Bentley’s accelerated transformation toward battery-powered vehicles is part of a $40 billion push by its German parent Volkswagen, which is developing the industry’s biggest lineup of electric cars as it seeks to challenge Tesla Inc.
For starters, Bentley will offer two plug-in hybrid models next year—the Bentayga Hybrid and the all-new Flying Spur Hybrid, according to Hallmark in a subsequent interview. The company had already announced that every model line will offer a hybrid version by 2023, with the company’s first fully-electric model to be introduced in 2025; everything will be developed in-house. The brand wants to make its operations carbon-neutral by 2030.
“As a luxury brand, our customers are more likely to have a home where they can charge a vehicle, an office where they can charge a vehicle, their favorite spots to go where they can charge a vehicle, and other cars so they don’t have to rely on electric vehicles if it doesn’t quite meet their routine needs,” says Hallmark.
“We are pushing to modernize and again reposition Bentley for a new generation,” he continues, pointing to the brand’s exponential growth in the early 2000s. “There will be not a slow progression toward electric cars, but an inflection point in the late ’20s when the infrastructure is there.”
Volkswagen already has rolled out the Porsche Taycan, the VW ID.3 and the Audi e-Tron models as part of its target to offer 75 electric cars by the end of the decade. The company’s CEO Herbert Diess told Bloomberg earlier Thursday about Bentley’s electric push.


fortune--2020-11-05--Four days of big gains put the S&P 500 just 2% below its all- time high

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Those awaiting the outcome of the vote tally in the remaining swing states may be biting their nails this week, but investors are nothing but euphoric.
Stocks soared again Thursday, capping off a week that has seen gains since Monday of 6.2% in the Dow, 6.4% in the S&P 500, and 7.8% in the Nasdaq. Thursday alone saw the Dow close 1.8% higher at 28,390, the S&P close 1.9% higher at 3,510, and the Nasdaq rise 2.6% to close at 11,891. Four days in, this marks the best week for the markets since the first week in April, a four-day spring trading week that saw the S&P 500 gain 12.7% as it bounced off pandemic-induced lows.
This week’s strong showing puts the S&P 500 just 2% shy of its all-time high, a remarkable feat given that the presidential race has not yet been called, the U.S. keeps marking grim new COVID milestones, and many places in Europe have reimposed lockdowns.
So why the euphoria? Many on Wall Street have cited a “relief rally” given the increasing odds that we may see a Democrat in the White House and a Republican-controlled Senate. As LPL’s Jeff Buchbinder told Fortune’s Anne Sraders on Wednesday, “Stocks tend to like gridlock and taking out major policy disruption.” There is some historical basis for this: Stocks do tend to perform best under a divided Congress. Since 1950, according to LPL, they’ve averaged gains of 17.2% under a divided scenario, 13.4% under a Republican Congress, and 10.7% under a Democratic-controlled Congress.
However, as Fortune’s Aric Jenkins reported, the Democrats’ hopes of making gains in the Senate are not quite dead yet. There are still five uncalled Senate races, and if the Democrats somehow managed to win three of those and Joe Biden prevails, a Vice President Kamala Harris could be the 50–50 tiebreaker.
Still, the dimmed prospect of higher corporate taxes or heavy regulation that might have been expected under a “blue wave” scenario has led to particular exuberance among tech investors. Wedbush’s Dan Ives is even predicting that tech stocks could see a 10% to 15% gain from here if Biden takes the White House and the Senate stays in Republican hands.
There is, however, still much hand-wringing about what the election results may mean for another stimulus package. On Wednesday, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (who secured reelection) said at a news conference, “We need another rescue package. The Senate goes back into session next Monday. Hopefully the partisan passions that prevented us from doing another rescue package will subside with the election. And I think we need to do it and I think we need to do it before the end of the year.” McConnell added that aid for state and local governments could be on the table. That would mark a big shift, as that was one of the key points of disagreement during months of negotiations between House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and White House Republicans.
In the meantime, traders cheered four days of gains and held out hopes that Friday would end the week on a high note. In the words of CFRA’s Sam Stovall, “Wall Street’s positive response to the yet-to-be-decided election implies that investors think gridlock is good.”


fortune--2020-11-05--Colorado joins 15 states in favor of popular vote in presidential elections

Americans across the nation sit in liminal voids, glued to couches, lit only by the white glare of cable television interactive maps, fed by anxiety-easing comfort foods with questionable nutritional value as they come upon hour 72 of this never-ending Election Day with no results. The nation’s collective November malaise has caused many to ponder whether there’s a better way to do this thing.
Coloradans say there is. On Tuesday, they voted to back the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact, a multistate effort to neutralize the Electoral College without officially abolishing it. The goal is to ensure that the presidential candidate who wins the popular vote wins the election, and the agreement between states presents a much easier solution than the alternative: amending the Constitution.
As it stands now, each state gets a certain number of votes in the Electoral College based on the number of lawmakers it has in both the Senate and Congress. That can give some states more power in electing the President because they have two Senators no matter how low their population is. The electors are expected to vote based on the outcome of the race in their state, and whichever candidate gets to 270 votes takes the Oval Office.
The compact, or Proposition 113, currently has no impact on the election, but it could significantly alter American democracy for good if more states sign on. The compact seeks to have a quorum of states whose Electoral College votes add up to at least 270, agreeing to cast their votes to the candidate who wins the national popular vote.
Currently, 15 states and the District of Columbia have joined, adding up to 196 votes. Several more large states will need to join for the compact to go into effect. Some states with significant numbers, like California and Illinois, have joined, but others, like Florida and Texas, have so far shied away from the idea.
There’s also another snag in the process: the Constitution. That bundle of compromises says that no compact can be agreed upon between states without the consent of Congress.
Article I, Section 10, Clause 3 of the Constitution reads: “No State shall, without the Consent of Congress…enter into any Agreement or Compact with another State, or with a foreign Power.”
There are some constitutional scholars who argue the compact can get around that clause: The Supreme Court has ruled that congressional consent is only “necessary for interstate compacts that encroach upon or interfere with the just supremacy of the United States,” and because electing Presidents is a state power, they argue, there is no encroachment on federal authority. But if the compact goes into effect, it will surely be challenged in the courts, and a conservative-leaning Supreme Court may not be so keen on approving changes to an Electoral College vote that currently favors the right.
Still, Colorado brings the reform one step, or nine votes, closer to making the popular vote as a presidential determinator a reality.


fortune--2020-11-05--Women are America’s most important health care customers. So why is the system designed by men?

Women control more than 80% of health care spending decisions in the U.S. On an individual level, we use health care more—we have more frequent and complex needs than men do, which translates to more doctors and more dollars spent. And, more often than not, we are also the primary caretakers of our families, literally and figuratively guiding the health care decisions and dollars spent on behalf of our partners, our children, and our parents.
Given the economic might of women as the most powerful health care consumers in America, why then is our health care system built and controlled by and large by men?
As female health care founders and investors, we’ve experienced firsthand—on a personal and professional level—the disconnect between the predominantly female-centric “buyers” of health care and the male-dominant “sellers.” Just take a look at the Instagram on any 22- to 50-year-old woman’s phone, and be inundated by ad after ad of health and wellness products and services—from supplements to egg freezing to birth control delivery—created all too often by men with a narrow and often inauthentic perception of what women want.
Compare that with the results of a recent report we conducted that surveyed nearly 1,000 women in the U.S. With one in five women citing mental health as the No. 1 issue they want the next President of the United States to address, it’s clear that women’s “whole person” definition of health care is misaligned with the all-too-reductive perception of women’s health as “bikini medicine.”
To create a thriving health care system that works for women, our families, and the system at large, we need more women as architects and decision-makers across the three key echelons of our health care ecosystem: founders, funders, and C-suite leaders.
It is well studied across industries that diversity at the top engenders better outcomes in business—more innovation, enhanced customer centricity, thriving workplace cultures, and, consequently, financial improvements to the bottom line. Yet, among the nation’s largest health care providers and insurers—those responsible for both providing the majority of health care services and dictating the payment models that enable or inhibit access—women are in too few leadership roles, comprising approximately 13% of CEOs and 30% of C-suite teams. In the practice of medicine itself, women now represent the majority of medical school students, yet account for just 3% of chief medical officers, 6% of department chairs, and 9% of division chiefs in the health care field.
Looking at the venture and startup landscape, female representation is even worse. Over 90% of venture capital decision-makers are male, and despite the vocal and well-intended efforts by the VC community to invest in more female founders and female-centric businesses, women continue to receive less than 3% of venture capital dollars. Furthermore, when women do get funded, they raise less money at lower valuations.
With COVID-19 highlighting problems in our health care system, we have a moral and economic imperative to rebuild a stronger system with more women—and women of color—in leadership positions. To do so requires a multipronged approach.
First, we should increase investment in women—not just by female investors but investors, period. We need both male and female allies with check-writing abilities to see investments in women not as a statistic to increase, but as smart business—one that’s good for men, women, and our health care system.
However, simply backing female founders is not enough. In 2019, female-founded companies received 6% of the deal volume, but only 3% of the venture dollars—in dollar terms, that’s $195 billion for male-founded companies and only $6 billion for female-founded companies. Without equitable check sizes, valuations, and funding across all stages of venture capital, female-led companies will continue to lack the necessary firepower to cross the chasm to Series A and later stages, and will be ill equipped to realize their full market potential.
Second, we must create pathways for women to lead as physician leaders and administrators. While there’s a large contingent of women in nonphysician medical roles and studying at medical schools, the gender gap widens from residency onward. Forty percent of women go part-time or leave medicine within six years of completing residency due to barriers such as gender harassment, salary inequity, and work-family conflict. We need health care systems to invest in stronger support systems for female doctors that prevent this talent drain, support women to manage both their families and their careers, and create more objective, standardized criteria that allow top female talent to rise up within traditionally hierarchical and male-dominant organizations.
Third, let’s broaden our definition of “women’s health.” This means shifting from the narrowly defined “femtech” thesis—which pigeonholes women’s health needs as “niche” and limited to their reproductive organs—to a more expansive and data-driven investment thesis that accounts for the full scope of women’s health needs. If investors, CEOs, and C-suite leaders recognize the true economic weight of women as the “chief medical officers” of their families, we can build big businesses and a thriving health care system at the same time.
As the health care system gets rebuilt for the post-COVID world, now is the time to shape it from the inside out. In order to deliver health care that is high-quality and cost-effective—and to deliver care that’s truly equitable and inclusive for all Americans—we need to ensure the architects of the new system are diverse and representative of the people they are trying to serve. That means valuing women for their full economic worth: the most valuable customers in our health care system.
Carolyn Witte and Felicity Yost are the cofounders of Tia, a women’s health care startup that raised the largest Series A led by a female founder in 2020.
Emily Melton and Lynne Chou O’Keefe are health care investors in Tia and serve on its board of directors.


fortune--2020-11-05--Trump and Biden’s roller-coaster betting odds tell the tale of an unpredictable election

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On Wednesday, as Joe Biden’s pathway to the presidency of the United States appeared ever more likely than Donald Trump’s path to reelection, Australian bookmaker Sportsbet announced that it was paying out nearly $17 million in winnings to bettors who had wagered on Biden to win the White House.
Though Biden had yet to achieve President-elect status, the bookie said it had “supreme confidence” that the Democratic nominee would end up the winner—a sentiment widely echoed by betting operators and prediction markets tracking the presidential race. U.K. gambling company Betfair and London-based betting exchange Smarkets were both giving Biden an 86% chance of sealing the presidency as of Wednesday afternoon. Betfair was offering 1-to-6 odds on Biden, which would pay out only $11.67 on a $10 bet; by contrast, Trump’s increasingly remote 6-to-1 odds would have awarded $60 for the same bet.
Of course, Biden was also the favorite on virtually all betting and prediction markets heading into the election—so much so that one Betfair bettor felt confident enough to place a £1 million ($1.3 million) wager on the former vice president, at 8-to-15 odds (65% probability). Yet both Biden’s and Trump’s odds went on quite the ride as the election began unfolding on Tuesday evening—a topsy-turvy roller coaster that reflected, in real time, the evolving public perception of an unprecedented, historically unpredictable contest.
Courtesy of Smarkets
At the start of Election Day on Tuesday, Biden maintained his advantage on the betting markets, with his odds of winning the White House fluctuating from 60% to nearly 70% early in the day. And as the first polls began to close on the East Coast, Betfair gave Biden 1-to-2 odds (67% probability) of victory.
But things quickly turned in Trump’s direction as results began coming in—particularly from Florida, where Biden’s underwhelming performance in Miami-Dade County would help deliver the state for Trump. By 7:45 p.m. ET on Tuesday, with Florida results trending favorably in Trump’s direction, Betfair updated the President’s odds to give him an 82% chance of winning the state—and a 40% chance of securing reelection.
As Tuesday turned into Wednesday—and as Trump built up a strong lead in battleground states across the country—the markets completed an incredible about-face indicating that the President was in pole position to keep the White House. Trump’s odds of winning the election climbed as high as 1-to-4 (80%) at one point, according to Betfair, and stood at 4-to-7 (62%) early Wednesday morning in what the bookmaker called an “incredible turnaround.”
Yet things would soon pivot back in Biden’s direction. The Associated Press’s decision to call Arizona in the Democrat’s favor, as well as Biden’s comeback in the upper Midwest—where votes from metropolitan areas like Milwaukee and Detroit were counted later than those from Trump-heavy rural areas—swung sentiment back in his direction. By the time Biden overtook Trump in Wisconsin on Wednesday morning on his way to winning the state, betting odds had boomeranged back in his favor, with Biden back to being a 1-to-2 favorite (67% probability) to win the contest.
Since then, Biden’s odds have continued to steadily approve. Victory in Wisconsin was followed by a win in Michigan, and as votes continue to be counted from predominantly metropolitan, Biden-leaning areas in Pennsylvania and Georgia, his chances appear to only be growing—with Betfair and Smarkets each giving him as good as a 90% chance of becoming the 46th president of the United States.
Of course, that would still leave Trump with a 10% probability of winning reelection, according to the bookies. No matter how remote, he still has a chance.


fortune--2020-11-05--Facebook removes ‘Stop the Steal’ group that’s casting doubt on election

Facebook said it has taken down a group that has surged in popularity since Election Day called “Stop the Steal.”
The group, which had attracted more than 360,000 followers in recent days, was attempting to sow doubt about the legitimacy of the U.S. presidential election. The #StopTheSteal hashtag has also become popular on Twitter.
Facebook Inc. said it removed the group because some members were calling for violence.
“In line with the exceptional measures that we are taking during this period of heightened tension, we have removed the Group ‘Stop the Steal,’ which was creating real-world events,” a Facebook spokesperson said. “The group was organized around the delegitimization of the election process, and we saw worrying calls for violence from some members of the group.”


fortune--2020-11-05--Tech stocks could rally another 15% this year with a Biden win and split Congress, says analyst

Tech is back in the game.
After a tumultuous few weeks for the sector that saw the tech-heavy Nasdaq fall over 5% last week, some analysts are more bullish than ever about tech stocks as a market-favored election outcome is looking more likely: a Biden presidency with a split Congress.
Stocks en masse soared Wednesday as the probability of a so-called blue wave (where Biden wins the White House and Democrats control both the House and Senate) appears to have waned. But with the odds now leaning more toward a Biden win and a divided Congress, with Republicans maintaining control of the Senate, markets appear relieved at the promise of gridlock—an environment that would likely stymie major policy changes.
For tech in particular, a possible Biden-plus-split-Congress scenario is a “Goldilocks election outcome” for tech stocks because “the chances of major legislative changes to antitrust law now is off the table in the eyes of investors which posed the biggest risks to tech stalwarts with a ripple impact across the sector,” Wedbush’s Dan Ives wrote in a note Thursday. While lawsuits like the DOJ versus Google and “potentially others on the horizon remain a long-term threat with litigation likely to go for years, for now the Beltway vs. Big Tech regulatory environment looks less onerous,” and “stocks are [reacting] accordingly in snapback fashion,” Ives suggests.
Given the environment, mega cap and IT stocks may “also be benefiting from less likelihood of higher corporate taxes,” UBS analysts wrote in a note Wednesday.
Wedbush’s Ives is willing to put a price on it: The tech bull estimates tech stocks could rally another 10% to 15% into year-end, boosted by some of the biggest names in the markets. In particular, Ives sees benefits for leaders including Apple, Microsoft, and Alphabet to trade higher by 2021.
According to the Street’s view, says Ives, a Biden presidency would likely “take a relatively more friendly tone on China technology and policy issues which could ratchet down tensions and rhetoric between the U.S./China” for the sector, he notes. That would be a “major bullish sign for the likes of Apple, Cisco, and semi names which are caught in the crossfire on this ongoing U.S./China battle with 5G front and center,” he argues.
Apart from China, Wedbush is bullish on Apple in general for what Ives calls the iPhone 12 5G “super cycle” and its services business that is “thriving in this environment.” He sees Microsoft’s Azure/Office 365 continuing to be a “major beneficiary” of the acceleration to cloud amid the pandemic, a trend he considers to be “still in the third inning of playing out
among enterprises.” Despite antitrust woes, Alphabet’s advertising/search and Google Cloud Platform saw “relative tailwinds” in the September quarter, he notes.
“Back to the leaders”
Though the votes are still being counted and some Senate races remain tight, Lisa Shalett, Morgan Stanley Wealth Management’s chief investment officer, argues the big trade now is going “back to the leaders at the beginning of the year…You’re back to the work-from-home guys, back to the FAANGs, back to defense,” she told Fortune Wednesday.
And others, like LPL’s Jeff Buchbinder, agree. “No matter what happens in the White House, if we get a split Congress, it’s a continuation of this environment with the COVID threat. We’re still going to have the stay-at-home, work-from-home environment that’s good for technology,” he told Fortune Wednesday.
That said, tech stocks have had a torrid run in 2020, and some firms like J.P. Morgan have recently cooled to tech stocks—suggesting the markets are “primed for a broadening in leadership” that would likely happen “irrespective of the U.S. elections winner,” strategists wrote Monday. However, bulls like Wedbush’s Ives argue with a “nirvana potential election scenario and fundamental drivers for tech names gaining momentum, we continue to be bullish on owning the secular growth stories for 2021.”
Apple shares have soared roughly 6% since Tuesday, while shares of Microsoft and Alphabet jumped around 7% and 6.6% respectively, as of early midday trading Thursday.


fortune--2020-11-05--These are the historic ‘firsts’ from the 2020 election you may have missed

Americans are awaiting the results of the 2020 U.S. election with bated breath—and if those votes swing in favor of Vice President Joe Biden, they would come with a historic first: Kamala Harris’s role as the first woman and first person of color to serve as vice president.
In the meantime, candidates across the country are earning “firsts” of their own in down-ballot races. These are some of the most notable achievements of this historic election.
Mauree Turner
Democrat Mauree Turner, 27, ran for the Oklahoma state legislature. Turner won the seat—making them the first openly nonbinary state lawmaker in the country. Turner will also be the first practicing Muslim elected to the Oklahoma state legislature.
Ritchie Torres and Mondaire Jones
Ritchie Torres, left, and Mondaire Jones, right, will both be the first openly gay Black men to serve in Congress. Adam Hunge—AP Images; Kathy Willens—AP Images
Ritchie Torres and Mondaire Jones broke a barrier simultaneously: The pair will be the first openly gay Black men to serve in Congress. Both politicians are Democrats who will represent New York House districts. Torres’s election comes with another milestone: He will be the first Afro-Latino member of Congress.
Yvette Herrell
After defeating incumbent Rep. Xochitl Torres Small, a 2018 “blue wave” winner, Yvette Herrell will be the first Native American Republican woman to serve in Congress. Herrell will also be part of a historic New Mexico delegation: All three of the state’s congressional representatives will be women of color.
Michele Rayner-Goolsby
Michele Rayner-Goolsby (D) is headed to Florida’s House of Representatives, where she will be the first queer Black woman to serve in the legislature.
Y’all. It just hit me.
I’m the first openly Black queer women ever elected in Florida-at any level.
Our team was led by a Black woman. It was anchored by women and women of color. We won because we defined ourselves for ourselves.
Brb- I’m crying now. — Michele Rayner-Goolsby (@micheleforfl) August 21, 2020
Shevrin Jones
Shevrin Jones joined Rayner-Goolsby in making Florida history. The Democratic candidate won his race for state senate and will be the body’s first openly LGBTQ lawmaker.
Cori Bush
Cori Bush is Missouri’s first Black female representative. Lawrence Bryant—Reuters
Black Lives Matter activist Cori Bush (D) won her race in a Missouri congressional district—making her the state’s first Black female representative and the first Black Lives Matter activist to serve in Congress.
Nancy Mace
Nancy Mace will be the first Republican woman to represent South Carolina in Congress. Mace is only be the second woman, Republican or Democrat, elected to serve a full congressional term in the state.
Sarah McBride
Sarah McBride will be the country’s highest-ranking transgender lawmaker and, after the Democrat won her Delaware race, she will be the first trans state senator in the country.
I hope tonight shows an LGBTQ kid that our democracy is big enough for them, too. — Sarah McBride (@SarahEMcBride) November 4, 2020
Kim Jackson
Democrat Kim Jackson’s victory in Georgia makes her the first openly LGBTQ member of Georgia’s state senate.
Cynthia Lummis
Republican Cynthia Lummis won her election in Wyoming and will be the first woman to represent the state in the U.S. Senate. (She’ll also be the first senator who owns Bitcoin.)
Taylor Small
In Vermont, 26-year-old Taylor Small (D) came in second in a race for a two-seat district—sending her to the state’s House of Representatives. Small will be Vermont’s first openly transgender member of its state legislature.
Stephanie Byers
Former high school band teacher Stephanie Byers ran for the Kansas House of Representatives. The Democrat’s win makes her the state’s first openly trans lawmaker—along with a few other firsts. Byers is likely the first Native American trans lawmaker and the first trans state legislator of color in the United States.
Daniella Levine Cava
Daniella Levine Cava is now the first woman to serve as mayor of Miami Dade county. Lynne Sladky—AP Images
In a close mayoral race, Daniella Levine Cava (D) emerged victorious. She will be the first woman to serve as mayor of Miami-Dade County.


fortune--2020-11-05--Visa to face antitrust suit over Plaid acquisition

The U.S. Justice Department sued to block Visa’s $5.3 billion acquisition of Plaid over concerns that the deal would harm competition in the global payments market.
The Justice Department filed an antitrust complaint in federal court in San Francisco Thursday.
The deal would give Visa control over an important data provider to apps like PayPal’s Venmo, which allows consumers to send money to friends and merchants without using Visa’s network.
Visa didn’t immediately respond to requests for comment. Plaid declined to comment.
Visa shares rose 3% to $199.81 at 10:38 a.m. after earlier rising as much as 3.6%. The stock has advanced 6.4% this year, compared with the 32% gain of the S&P 500 Information Technology Index.
Regulators have long had antitrust concerns about the market power Visa and its rival Mastercard wield over global payments systems. The two have faced pressure to lower the fees they set on card payments from governments around the world, including in the U.S.
With Plaid, Visa would gain access to 200 million consumer bank accounts and 2,600 financial technology apps. Those connections would help the company further its push into new areas like real-time payments and digital wallets.


fortune--2020-11-05--U.K. to use A.I. to spot dangerous side effects in the millions of COVID-19 vaccinations it will del

U.K. to use A.I. to spot dangerous side effects in the millions of COVID-19 vaccinations it will deliver

The British government plans to use artificial intelligence software to spot any potential safety concerns with its planned mass vaccination program for COVID-19.
The U.K. government is expected to approve one or more coronavirus vaccines before the end of the year, and has told the government-run National Health Service to make preparations for a mass vaccination campaign “by Christmas,” according to news reports.
But vaccinating the entire British population of almost 68 million people against COVID-19 will pose a number of challenges—one of which will be monitoring those who receive the inoculation for any dangerous side effects.
Even though the vaccines will have undergone testing with thousands of volunteers before they are approved by the British medical regulator, it is possible that those trials will fail to pick up important safety concerns.
And the U.K. Medicines and Healthcare Products Regulatory Agency (MHRA), the country’s main medical regulator, is worried that its current process for reporting “adverse events” for medicines will be incapable of handling both the potential number of side effect reports—and too slow to pick up on any worrisome trends.
To automate the process, the MHRA has given a $1.96 million contract to the U.K. arm of Genpact, the U.S.- listed business process outsourcing firm, to design a machine learning system that can ingest reports of side effects and pick up on potential safety concerns.
The regulator told the Financial Times that, based on its previous experience with vaccination campaigns, it would expect that, over a six- to 12-month period, there might be 50,000 to 100,000 reports of suspicious side effects for every 100 million doses injected.
The possibility of using A.I. to monitor drug side effects has been the focus of academic research for several years, and the British regulator is not the only government considering the use of the technology in this way.
The U.S. Food and Drug Administration held a competition earlier this year for computer algorithms designed to identify trends in the massive volume of adverse event reports it processes for all drugs in the U.S. The competition gave out two prizes, one for the most innovative approach, which went to an A.I. system designed by two researchers with a small technology company called Enigma, and another for the system that would be most easy to integrate with the agency’s existing processes, which went to one of the agency’s own scientists.
It is not clear, however, whether or how quickly the FDA will implement either system or if it might use such a system to monitor U.S. COVID-19 vaccinations.


fortune--2020-11-05--T-Mobile can’t claim to have the ‘best’ 5G network, ad body says

T-Mobile can continue to say it will have the “largest 5G network” with “more coverage” than rivals, but it can’t claim it will be the “best” or the “most reliable.”
That’s the split-decision verdict rendered by the advertising industry’s self-regulatory body, the National Advertising Division of BBB National Programs, on Thursday.
After merging with Sprint this year, T-Mobile began combining the two companies’ wireless networks while upgrading to 5G, the new superfast technology that will eventually allow download speeds 10 to 100 times as fast as 4G networks. T-Mobile also started touting the future benefits of its upcoming 5G network in TV ads, which rival Verizon challenged at the NAD.
Verizon, T-Mobile, and AT&T are pouring tens of billions of dollars into upgrading their networks for 5G but none of the three have yet achieved the breadth or reliability of coverage of their older 4G networks. Verizon’s network is the fastest, though with the smallest coverage, while AT&T has much more coverage, but speeds that can be slower than 4G at times. And T-Mobile falls somewhere in the middle for both coverage and speed.
As a result, the three carriers are fighting a marketing battle on TV and online. Verizon got dinged by the NAD in July for exaggerating the progress of its 5G rollout. And in May, AT&T was told to drop ads claiming that a version of its 4G network that it labeled as “5G Evolution” was the “first step to 5G.”
The board’s split decision on T-Mobile’s ads focused on claims for the future versus claims for the present. T-Mobile’s new 5G network being built with Sprint’s old airwaves covers an area with only about 25 million people, with a goal to reach 100 million people by year-end. That makes it the largest 5G network offering a particular high-speed version of the technology, but still is a long way from nationwide coverage, the NAD noted.
“NAD concluded that consumers could reasonably interpret these claims to mean that due to the recent merger T-Mobile is imminently poised to become, comparatively speaking, the ‘Best Network,’ or that this ‘Best Network’ will be imminently available to the vast number of T-Mobile customers, or will soon provide ‘the most reliable 5G network,’” the group explained. NAD recommended that the ads “be modified to avoid conveying such messages.”
Fortune has asked T-Mobile for comment and will update this story if it responds.
The NAD said T-Mobile agreed to drop the disputed claims.


fortune--2020-11-05--Prop 22 and the ‘third way’ to classify gig workers

California’s Prop 22 passed to the relief of gig companies like Uber and Lyft, which spent millions of dollars on the ballot initiative to continue classifying their drivers as independent contractors. The landmark vote, passed with 58% majority, saves the companies the heavy costs associated with making their workers employees and providing them full benefits.
But make no mistake, Prop 22 will still come at a cost to the companies. And if the companies expand the benefits to drivers outside of California—as several have already suggested they’ll do—the costs may rise even higher.
So what does that mean for Uber and Lyft’s business models and their customers?
Edward Yruma, an analyst at investment banking firm KeyBanc Capital Markets, expects a big portion of the new expenses to trickle down to customers. But those nominal increases likely won’t drive many people away from the services. Meanwhile, the companies will be able to keep much of their business models intact.
“There will be some financial burden” on the companies, Yruma said. “But I don’t believe it will terribly noteworthy.”
D.A. Davidson’s Tom White said he thinks Uber and Lyft factored the costs of the benefits into their profitability projections. “The timetables for profitability would’ve been jeopardized if Prop 22 hadn’t passed,” he said. “But the fact that the cost increases aren’t going to be severe basically keeps the profitability timelines still achievable.”
These companies now have a model to present to states beyond California that have been concerned over the lack of benefits for gig workers. “The bigger concern would be thousands of different rules from different states,” Yruma said.
White expects that the gig companies will soon start contacting states considering laws similar to California’s. But the companies likely won’t be shopping the new benefits around to all states—at least not yet, White said.
Uber, Lyft, and DoorDash have already suggested they have intentions to expand their benefits programs beyond California.
“Now is the time to push forward, focused on better, permanent, collaborative solutions for millions of workers across the country,” DoorDash CEO Tony Xu said in a blog post on Wednesday. “DoorDash is committed to leading that effort.”
In a statement following the vote, Lyft called the decision a “groundbreaking step toward the creation of a ‘third way’” of handling independent contractors in the U.S. And though Uber did not release any new statements on the matter, earlier this year CEO Dara Khosrowshahi pushed for the adoption of new laws across the nation that would require gig companies to provide more benefits while keeping their workers as independent contractors.
We could hear more from those companies in a matter of days: Uber reports its third-quarter earnings on Thursday, and Lyft will follow next week.
Danielle Abril
@DanielleDigest
danielle.abril@fortune.com
NEWSWORTHY
Privacy crackdown. Prop 22 wasn’t the only California ballot initiative that may have implications beyond the state. Voters also passed Prop 24, which places stricter privacy rules on companies that collect personal data from consumers. The prop passed nearly one year after California’s Consumer Protection Act went into effect. Now that Prop 24 has passed, it could set a nationwide tone for how companies handle consumer data.
Battling misinformation. As expected, the presidential race was not decided on Election Night. Twitter and Facebook's struggle to keep up with widespread misinformation continued on Wednesday as politicos and people associated with the Trump campaign claimed victory and cheating in key states before results had been determined. Meanwhile, CNBC reports that YouTube opted not to remove a video from a right-wing media organization claiming that Democrats were committing voter fraud.
Regulatory fines. Turkey authorities fined Facebook, Twitter, Instagram, Periscope, and TikTok about $1.2 million each after they didn’t appoint country representatives earlier this week, according to The Wall Street Journal. The representatives are required under a new law aimed at giving the government more power to control what content remains on the social networks.
Power problems. Apple is reportedly running short on chips that manage the power consumption of several of its devices including the iPhone, according to Bloomberg. The troubling news comes as Apple heads towards its busiest part of the year: the holiday season. The issue stems from supply-chain disruptions related to the pandemic coupled with increasing demand.
FOOD FOR THOUGHT
An evolving scientific field called synthetic biology may allow researchers to digitally program genetic structures from scratch. Amy Webb, founder of the Future Today Institute and professor at the NYU Stern School of Business, explored the field in Wired. Webb suggests that the field could not only play a key role in fighting viruses like COVID-19 but also in revolutionizing manufacturing, agriculture, food and beverage, and space travel. However, she also calls for caution ahead.
"Synthetic biology promises to improve human existence, but if we don’t have a plan, public confusion will grow to untenable levels. ... Within the next decade, we will need to make important decisions: whether to program novel viruses to fight diseases, what genetic privacy will look like, who will 'own' living organisms, how companies should earn revenue from engineered cells, and how to contain a synthetic organism in a lab," Webb writes.
IN CASE YOU MISSED IT
As America holds its breath over an election outcome, Twitter lights up with cracks from around the world By Bernhard Warner
Wyoming elects first Bitcoin owner to U.S. Senate By Jeff John Roberts
Uber and Lyft shares soar after a California labor-protections vote goes their way By Phil Wahba
Will the world’s biggest IPO face a valuation ding after its delay? By Lucinda Shen
California just passed tougher privacy rules that may reverberate nationwide By Jonathan Vanian
BEFORE YOU GO
As the presidential election plays out, I turned to my most trusted source for predictions: Paul the octopus.
If you recall, the ocean creature correctly predicted the outcomes of seven of Germany’s World Cup matches in 2010. I wondered if he had a similar knack for politics. Sadly, and to my surprise, Paul also died in 2010.
However, three other animals are predicting the outcome of the 2020 presidential election. A bear and two tigers in Siberia along with a squirrel in South Carolina all made guesses. The bear, which correctly predicted the 2016 presidential outcome, selected Biden as the expected leader. The squirrel (which has since died) chose Biden too. The two tigers picked Trump.
It seems the animal kingdom can’t agree on how this will go either.


fortune--2020-11-05--Trump’s abusing his position by trying to halt vote count, says top international election observer

The head of the international team sent to monitor the U.S. election has described Donald Trump’s call for a halt to vote counting as an “abuse of his position” as President.
Michael Georg Link, a former foreign minister in the German government of Chancellor Angela Merkel, is leading a team dispatched to the election by the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE). While en route to Philadelphia on Thursday, he told Fortune that the President’s push for an end to counting was “undermining trust in the electoral process.”
“It is confusing to everybody,” Link said. “The President, at the federal level, is not competent for the election. That is the exclusive competence of the states.
“The fact that [Trump], as President of the United States, from the White House declared not only a premature victory—which he can’t—and called for an end of the counting—which he of course must not do—is an unprecedented abuse of his position,” Link said.
The observer’s accusation came less than a day after his team issued its initial evaluation of the elections, which it said were “competitive and well managed”—though it also noted that “the campaign was characterized by deeply entrenched political polarization that often obscured the broader policy debate and included baseless allegations of systematic fraud.”
“Baseless allegations of systematic deficiencies, notably by the incumbent President, including on election night, harm public trust in democratic institutions,” the OSCE team said Wednesday.
On Wednesday, the day after the election, the Trump campaign took legal steps to try stopping the count in battleground states including Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Georgia. The mailed-in ballots that are currently being counted tend to skew Democratic, reducing Trump’s chances of success in those states.
The OSCE is the world’s top organization when it comes to election monitoring, but its mission to the U.S. had to be scaled down because of pandemic-related precautions and travel restrictions. It planned to send 500 observers but could manage only 30.
The Organization of American States (OAS) sent an observation mission to the last election in 2016, but this time its observers were not invited.


fortune--2020-11-05--A cannabis company is throwing down the gauntlet to White Claw

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While cannabis has not yet been federally legalized in the U.S., Aphria, a Canadian cannabis company, is laying down the rails in preparation for looser regulations across the country.
It’s throwing down $300 million to acquire SweetWater Brewing Company, an Atlanta-based beer maker known for a drink that tastes and smells like pot without the actual substance. For Aphria, which currently has no operations stateside, the acquisition is a way to introduce its own brand to the U.S. and also launch THC beverages in Canada.
“Aphria expects to leverage SweetWater’s innovation, manufacturing, marketing and distribution infrastructure in the southeast with expansion opportunities across the U.S. for craft beer and cannabis products, subject to federal legalization of cannabis,” Aphria CEO Irwin Simon said in an analyst call Wednesday. And because of its brand of marijuana-esque beers, SweetWater is “well aligned with the cannabis lifestyle.”
Beer companies have struggled as drinkers have opted for new options such as canned wines or spiked seltzers like White Claw. Beer giants such as Constellation Brands have sought to diversify their offerings by expanding into cannabis-related products. The now $34 billion company behind Corona took a stake in marijuana company Canopy Growth three years ago.
And Aphria may well be hoping to throw all of these trends together: “I mentioned earlier SweetWater’s recent entry into rapidly growing hard seltzer,” Simon said during the call. “We believe the hard seltzer could be a very attractive form of cannabis products and develop over time, and we look for SweetWater to be a strong competitor to White Claw and Truly.”
Aphria will pay $250 million in cash and $50 million in stock.
The deal comes as Arizona, New Jersey, and Dakota voted this week to legalize recreational marijuana.
TIKTOK PARENT SEEKS A $180 BILLION VALUATION: ByteDance, the Chinese company behind TikTok, is in talks with investors including Sequoia to raise $2 billion at a $180 billion valuation, per Bloomberg. The discussions come ahead of a potential IPO of some of its businesses in Hong Kong, and, of course, an unforgettable battle with the Trump administration over a ban on TikTok in the U.S. The app is still awaiting approval from U.S. and Chinese regulators over a proposed deal that would have Walmart and Oracle take on a 20% stake in the business.
In particular, ByteDance is said to be considering an IPO of TikTok’s Chinese counterpart, Douyin.
VENTURE DEALS
- Zhangyue, a Chinese ebook publisher, raised 1.1 billion yuan or $170 million from ByteDance, representing a 11% stake. Read more.
- eSign, a China-based e-signature company, raised $150 million in Series D funding. Shenzhen Capital Group, Evergrande High-Tech Group, and Fortune Capital led the round. Read more.
- Wanwu Dezhi, a Chinese antiques and collectables platform, raised $80 million in a Series C funding. Invesetors included China Renaissance’s Huaxing New Economy Fund and Source Code Capital. Read more.
- Ayar Labs, a Santa Clara, Calif.-based developer of a way to move data via optical connections, raised $35 million in Series B funding. Downing Ventures and BlueSky Capital led the round and were joined by investors including Playground Global, Applied Ventures, Castor Ventures, SGInnovate, BlueSky Capital, Founders Fund, GLOBALFOUNDRIES, Intel Capital, and Lockheed Martin Ventures.
- The Protein Brewery, a Netherlands-based maker of non-animal-based proteins, raised €22 million ($26 million) in Series A funding led by Novo Holdings, and was joined by investors including Roquette Ventures and Unovis Asset Management.
- Provizio, an Ireland-based sensor platform for preventing car accidents, raised $6.2 million in seed funding. Investors included Bobby Hambrick (founder of Autonomous Stuff), the European Innovation Council, and ACT Venture Capital.
- Osome, a Singapore-based super app in the accounting and corporate compliance space, raised $3 million in funding. XA Network and AltaIR Capital led the round.
- Riverside.fm, a video podcasting platform, raised $2.5 million in funding. Oren Zeev led the round.
- Talking Medicines, a Glasgow and London-based platform for monitoring patient behavior and conversations around medication, raised £1.1 million in funding. Tern led the round and was joined by investors including The Scottish Investment Bank. Read more.
- Podcastle, a Middletown, De.-based maker of a platform for turning articles into podcasts, raised $1.75 million in seed funding. Sierra Ventures led the round and was joined by investors including AI Fund and Correlation Ventures.
- Protomer Technologies, a Pasadena, Calif.-based biopharmaceutical company, raised an undisclosed amount of funding from the DRF T1D Fund.
PRIVATE EQUITY
- IFM Investors acquired a “significant” minority interest in Zuuse, a Portland-based provider of construction payment management SaaS solutions. The deal was made for A$50 million ($36 million).
- Apollo Global Management is reportedly interested in acquiring a minority stake in DirecTV from AT&T. Read more.
- Carlyle Group and MBK Partners are reportedly showing interest and acquiring Japanese skincare brand Fancl’s Asia business outside of Japan. Read more.
- Nordic Capital acquired Amsterdam-based BearingPoint's regulatory technology business unit. Financial terms weren't disclosed.
- The Planet Group, backed by MidOcean Partners, agreed to acquire NDA Partners, a Rochelle, Va.-based life sciences management consulting and contract development organization. Financial terms weren't disclosed.
- West Monroe acquired Pace Harmon, a Washington D.C.-based IT and business services firm. Financial terms weren't disclosed.
EXITS
- Merck (NYSE: MRK) plans to acquire VelosBio, a maker of cancer therapies, for $2.75 billion in cash. Firms including Sofinnova Investments, Takeda Ventures and Surveyor Capital backed VelosBio.
- Lightspeed POS (NYSE: LSPD) agreed to acquire ShopKeep, a New York City-based cloud commerce platform. ShopKeep investors have included Activant Capital, Canaan Partners, and TTV Capital.
OTHERS
- Alimentation Couche-Tard agreed to acquire Convenience Retail Asia’s convenience store business in Hong Kong for HK$2.8 billion ($360 million). Read more.
- Carrefour acquired Bio c’ Bon, a Paris-based chain or organic supermarkets, for €60 million ($70 million).
IPO
- Midwest Holding, an underwriter of life insurance products, filed to raise $50 million in an IPO. Read more.
SPAC
- Capitol Investment Corp. V filed to raise $300 million. Read more.
- Roman DBDR Tech Acquisition, a blank check company seeking a target in the tech, media, and telecom sector, now says it plans to raise a lower $220 million. Read more.
F+FS
- CIVC Partners is looking to raise $525 million for its sixth fund. Read more.
- 10D, an Israel-based venture firm, raised $110 million for a fund targeting early stage startups. Read more.
PEOPLE
- Sequoia Capital Partner Michael Abramson, who co-led Sequoia's U.S. growth business, left the venture firm, sources confirm.


fortune--2020-11-05--Denmark is culling millions of furry minks to extinguish a worrying COVID-19 outbreak

A new outbreak of COVID-19 in the northern reaches of Denmark is alarming public health officials the world over.
The infections appear to be caused by a mutated version of the virus that’s made the jump to humans from the diminutive, furry mink. Denmark is the world’s largest mink producer, with exports typically headed for the fashion industry in Asia.
To limit the spread, local Danish officials on Thursday placed the impacted parts of the country under tighter COVID-19 restrictions, Reuters reported. That’s after the national government warned on Wednesday that the mutated mink-borne version could not only be a health risk to humans, but that these infections could undermine larger, global efforts to create an effective vaccine.
In addition to imposing more stringent lockdown measures in the region, the government also said it will cull the country’s entire population of about 16 million minks.
The World Health Organization said Thursday that it is aware of reports in Denmark of humans being infected with COVID-19 by mink—with some genetic changes to the virus—and that it is in touch with authorities about the matter.
Such a mutation could have “devastating consequences worldwide,” Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen said Wednesday.
A Danish government report has linked a mutated COVID-19 strain to 12 cases in the country’s north, and the health minister said more than half of the over 700 cases in the region had been linked to mink, which are farmed for their soft pelts. Culling on some farms has already begun as COVID-19 has spread throughout farms in the region for months.
But James Wood, head of the department of veterinary medicine at the University of Cambridge, urged caution.
“The true implication of the changes in the spike protein have not yet been evaluated by the international scientific community and are thus unclear,” he said in a statement. “It is too early to say that the change will cause either vaccines or immunity to fail.”
Infections of mink with COVID-19 have been tracked in western Europe since at least April, and Dutch mink farms have also reported COVID-19 cases and instituted large culls. As early as May, an investigation by the Dutch government warned that mink may be already transmitting the virus to humans, forcing it to create strict reporting systems among the country’s farms to track outbreaks. The government also warned of the risk of virus mutations at the time.
In late October, the Danish newspaper Information reported that a risk assessment by the Danish Veterinary and Food Administration, the state Serum Institute, and the University of Copenhagen had warned the government of the mutation in the virus among mink. The assessment also concluded that efforts to prevent the infection of humans by mink hadn’t worked or hadn’t been properly implemented.
Besides the risk of mutation, the cases raise serious questions about the future of the mink industry. In the Netherlands, the sector is required to be phased out completely by 2024 on animal welfare grounds, while there is also political support in Denmark for such a ban.
It’s not the only virus-related animal cull at the moment. Authorities in Germany, the U.K., and the Netherlands are also racing to contain outbreaks of the H5N8 bird flu at several poultry farms. Though there is little transmission to humans, the culls will put a further economic burden on the agriculture sectors as economic crises mount.