fortune--2020-03-10--Trademark infringement suit says a restaurant’s name causes a panda confusion

Coronavirus and the flu have similar symptoms .
So , how are they different ?

When picking a name for their Asian-Mexican fusion restaurant in suburban Phoenix, Paul and Nicole Fan settled on “Panda Libre,” hoping the mix of China’s iconic bear and the Spanish word for “free” would signal to customers the type of cuisine it offered.
That decision could cost them dearly. Chinese takeout chain Panda Express sued them in federal court last month alleging trademark infringement.
The lawsuit showcases how trademark law can collide with an evolving dining landscape, where restaurateurs peddling Asian or Asian “inspired” foods often pick a name that instantly invokes a connection to that culture. But getting a trademark for the new name can lead to ugly and sometimes public clashes over ownership and cultural appropriation. In recent years, businesses have butted heads over whether a restaurant or food truck can legally own the right to use words rooted in Asian American Pacific Islander cultures like “aloha” and “poke.”
The growing popularity of fast-casual restaurants like Thai, Indian, or poke—diced and marinated raw fish—has led to a rush for ownership of certain aspects of that culture, said Telly Wong of IW Group marketing agency in New York City. Having a name that conveys authenticity is crucial when consumers make snap judgments, he said.
“Sometimes you need that cultural shorthand to convey that message,” Wong said. “Otherwise, you’re explaining to people, ‘Oh, at Jack’s, we sell southern Chinese food.’”
Panda Express’ parent company, Rosemead, Calif.-based Panda Restaurant Group, says it has owned the trademark for “Panda” for Chinese food services since 2001. The chain wants a court injunction and for Panda Libre to destroy signs, social media posts, and other materials with the name.
“It would be like starting a new company. That alone there is hundreds of thousands of dollars in this restaurant,” Nicole Fan said. “Going through this whole ordeal, the lawsuit, will bankrupt us.”
On top of punitive damages and legal fees, Panda Express, which generated $2 billion in sales last year, is asking for all of Panda Libre’s profits since it opened last year in Gilbert, about 20 miles (32 kilometers) east of Phoenix.
“Oftentimes it’s overstated—the damages—to get the attention of the defendant,” said Charles Valauskas, a Chicago intellectual property attorney who has represented restaurants. “It’s not like (Panda Express is) going to sit there and wait till every last penny is drained from a bank account.”
Experts say Panda Express is within its right to trademark “Panda” for restaurant and food products.
“If you were selling pandas under the name ‘Panda,’ you probably wouldn’t be able to do that because it’s describing literally what you’re doing,” said Mark Simpson, a veteran intellectual property lawyer in Philadelphia. “It’s like trying to trademark the words ‘grocery store.’ You could trademark ‘Whole Foods’ the grocery store.”
Panda Express, which Andrew and Peggy Cherng launched in 1983 as an offshoot of their Panda Inn restaurants, has more than 1,900 locations nationwide. The company says it has a “legal obligation to consistently protect them” but is hopeful for a resolution.
“We believe there is a path forward that allows for this small business to operate while respecting our intellectual property rights, and we remain open to a conversation with those involved,” the company said in an email.
Nicole Fan says nobody has entered Panda Libre thinking it was a Panda Express. She points to the logo—a panda dressed in a cape and mask like a Mexican wrestler—and the fact that there are other eateries that use “panda.”
Panda Restaurant Group said it takes legal action on a “case-by-case basis.” It also says it settled several trademark infringement issues without litigation last year.
Other efforts to trademark cultural words have been met with fierce online backlash.
In 2009, loyalists to chef Roy Choi‘s Kogi Korean taco truck went online to accuse Tex Mex chain Baja Fresh of stealing his concept. The Los Angeles-based truck’s name came from a combination of “gogi,” the Korean word for meat, and “K” for Korean BBQ. Baja Fresh had applied to trademark “Kogi” for its own line of Korean tacos and merchandise.
Within a day, the company publicly apologized for appearing to hijack Kogi. Baja Fresh said it would instead use gogi. It also dropped the trademark pursuit.
In 2018, Chicago-based Aloha Poke Co. trademarked its name and sent cease-and-desist letters to poke restaurants with “aloha” or “aloha poke” in their names. In Hawaii, the birthplace of the raw fish dish, locals decried a “mainlander” dictating how their community used their own language. A social media firestorm followed.
Jeff Sampson’s Aloha Poke Shop in Honolulu was among those worried about a lawsuit. But he got a letter from Aloha Poke Co. attorneys that said he was “allowed” to use the term because of the geographic location.
“That was the worst business decision they made to go after ‘aloha’ and ‘poke,’” Sampson said. “Hawaiian poke has been around for hundreds of hundreds of years. It’s like a cheeseburger. You can’t trademark cheeseburger.”
Wong would advise anyone trying to trademark a word or term—be it for a food or a fashion line—to make sure you’re not going to be seen as culturally insensitive or appropriating.
“Consumers are just more informed and culturally aware now,” Wong said. “It’s just good business practice to be authentic.”
Nicole Fan says she and her husband will try to fight the lawsuit and hang on to the Panda Libre name, which they had trademarked without problems.
But now, they are at risk for “doing the right thing,” she said.
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fortune--2020-03-10--Oregon Governor signs executive order to reduce the state’s impact on global warming

In an end run around Republican legislators, Oregon’s Democratic governor ordered the state on Tuesday to lower greenhouse gas emissions, directing a state agency to set and enforce caps on pollution from industry and transportation fuels.
Gov. Kate Brown’s sweeping executive order, one of the boldest in the nation, aims to reduce carbon emissions to at least 45% below 1990 levels by 2035 and an 80% reduction from 1990 levels by 2050. It more than doubles a clean fuels program, making it the most ambitious goal for clean fuels in the country, Brown said at a news conference.
“I’ve heard it loud and clear from our young people in Oregon: Climate action is crucial and urgent,” Brown said, surrounded by students. “If we adults don’t take action right away, it is the next generation that will pay the price.”
Republicans lawmakers, a minority in the Legislature, staged a walkout during this year’s short session to sabotage a bill that aimed at many of the same climate goals. The boycott caused the session to end two days early on Friday, with only three bills passed and more than 100 dying, including the climate measure.
Unlike that measure, Brown’s order does not set up an economy-wide cap-and-trade system in which polluters would be able to buy credits when they exceed emissions limits. That system would have generated money to help pay for projects and initiatives aimed at easing the transition to a low-carbon economy.
“What I don’t have the ability to do as the executive is create a carbon market,” Brown told reporters. However, she said the Legislature could move forward on that in the future.
Senate Republican leader Herman Baertschiger Jr. predicted Brown’s executive action would wind up in court.
“I think all this is going to do is initiate a whole bunch of lawsuits,” he said Monday. Brown’s legal team said it is confident they would prevail in any litigation.
Baertschiger said many rural counties oppose the so-called cap-and-trade concept.
“It’s obvious Kate Brown is not Oregon’s Governor, she is Portland’s Governor, and as she promised, she is serving revenge, cold and slowly,” he said in a statement.
The order beefs up Oregon’s clean fuels program. It is currently on schedule to achieve a 10% reduction in the carbon intensity of fuels—primarily gasoline and diesel—by 2025, said Kristen Sheeran, director of Brown’s carbon policy office. The governor’s executive order doubles the target to a 20% reduction by 2030, and 25% by 2035, Sheeran said.
Brown’s executive order is a step past what a few other Democratic governors have done.
Last year, Pennsylvania Gov. Tom Wolf ordered his administration to start working on regulations to join a nine-state consortium of Northeastern and mid-Atlantic states that sets a price and declining limits on carbon dioxide emissions from power plants.
North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper issued an executive order in 2018 setting goals to reduce greenhouse gas emissions statewide by 40% by 2025 compared with 2005 levels; have 80,000 zero-emission vehicles registered in the state by 2025; and lower energy consumption in state-owned buildings by at least 40% compared with 2003 levels. But utilities and businesses aren’t mandated by law to meet this goal.
In Oregon, the state has regulatory authority under existing law, Sheeran said. Brown’s executive order directs the Department of Environmental Quality to create additional rules and take additional actions to meet the goals.
“In the absence of effective federal engagement on these issues, it is the responsibility of individual states to take immediate action,” the order says.
“This action will hold large corporate polluters accountable for the pollution they create,” said Tera Hurst, executive director of Renew Oregon, a group that advocates for clean energy.
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—Can Germany phase out nuclear energy and coal?
—Coronavirus may be the straw that breaks the back of oil fracking
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fortune--2020-03-10--Coronavirus and the flu have similar symptoms. So, how are they different?

Everyone has a role in limiting the impact of coronavirus

Subscribe to Fortune’s Outbreak newsletter for a daily roundup of stories on the coronavirus and its impact on global business.
Is it the flu, a cold or the new coronavirus? Patients and doctors alike are parsing signs of illness to figure out who needs what tests or care and how worried they should be.
“You have three different major viruses floating around at the same time,” causing somewhat similar symptoms—but different levels of concern, said Dr. Gary LeRoy, president of the American Academy of Family Physicians.
So what’s the biggest danger? And why are we responding to them so differently?
Familiar foe
COVID-19, the disease caused by the new coronavirus, is a flu-like illness that has killed a small fraction of the number of people that the flu kills every year. Through the first four months of the outbreak, coronavirus has killed about 4,300 people. Flu kills 290,000 to 650,000 every year around the world, according to the World Health Organization.
To some, that comparison seems comforting because flu is such a familiar foe. President Donald Trump regularly brings it up, noting in a tweet how many more Americans die from flu and adding, “Nothing is shut down, life & the economy go on … Think about that!”
But to public health experts, the huge number of flu deaths is exactly why extraordinary steps should be taken to try to prevent the new coronavirus from spreading widely.
The flu’s annual return can’t be stopped because it’s already so embedded in the population. There is still a chance COVID-19 cases can be limited or spread slowed while treatments are developed.
How deadly are coronavirus and the flu?
Flu kills about 0.1% of those it infects, but that’s still hundreds of thousands of people each year because it infects millions.
Researchers are still trying to understand just how deadly the new coronavirus is. The mortality rate from infection with the virus isn’t known yet because the cases caught in an early part of an outbreak are often the most severe, people with mild or no symptoms aren’t being tested, and sometimes overwhelmed hospitals struggle to care for the sickest patients. Various reports have estimated the fatality rate from less than 1% to as high as 4% among cases diagnosed so far, depending on location.
Most people infected by the new coronavirus develop mild or moderate symptoms and recover after about two weeks.
Subscribe to Outbreak, our daily newsletter on the coronavirus outbreak.
So what do I have: Coronavirus or the flu?
Flu, cold and coronavirus often share certain symptoms, but differences in intensity and how they appear can offer clues to which one is causing the misery. Doctors can test for the flu and get results within a day, but coronavirus testing is still limited by availability in the United States.
Colds are often suspected because adults get about two on average each year, said LeRoy, a family medicine doctor and associate dean at Wright State University in Dayton, Ohio.
“The common cold just starts out with a sore or scratchy throat, cough, runny nose, stuffy nose” and any fever is usually mild, he said.
Flu symptoms are more intense and usually come on suddenly, the Yale New Haven Health System advises. They can include a high fever (over 100.5 degrees), extreme exhaustion, muscle or body aches, a dry cough and chills.
“It really hits you like a bus,” and people may start a day well but feel terrible by afternoon, LeRoy said.
Flu symptoms can include a runny or stuffy nose, headaches and possibly vomiting or diarrhea, though the latter two are more common in children than adults, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention says.
Symptoms of COVID-19 may appear more slowly. They usually include fever, a dry cough and noticeable shortness of breath, according to the World Health Organization. A minority of cases develop pneumonia, and the disease is especially worrisome for the elderly and those with other medical problems such as high blood pressure, obesity, diabetes or heart conditions.
One study of hospitalized patients in China found that about half did not have a fever when they were admitted but nearly all developed one.
What to do if you’re sick
Don’t go straight to your doctor’s office—that just risks making more people sick, officials urge. Call ahead, and ask if you need to be seen and where.
Fever, cough and noticeable shortness of breath—”if you have those three components, especially if it’s associated with some recent travel or someone you know who’s been exposed to COVID-19, those things should prompt you to call for medical attention,” LeRoy said.
“Mildly ill patients should be encouraged to stay home,” the CDC’s Dr. Sue Gerber told doctors on a conference call last week. People having difficulty breathing should seek care, and older people or those with other conditions should contact their doctors early in the course of illness, she said.
How to prevent getting sick
To protect yourself, wash your hands well and often, keep them away from your face, and avoid crowds and standing close to people.
There’s one big difference between flu and coronavirus: A vaccine exists to help prevent the flu and it’s not too late to get it. It won’t protect you from catching the coronavirus, but may put you in a better position to fight it.
“You don’t want to have a compromised immune system if you were to encounter coronavirus,” LeRoy said.
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—How coronavirus is affecting the global concert industry
—Politicians around the world are going into quarantine
—Some of the most extreme ways companies are combating coronavirus
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—What Xi Jinping’s visit to Wuhan says about China’s coronavirus recovery
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Subscribe to Fortune’s Outbreak newsletter for a daily roundup of stories on the coronavirus outbreak and its impact on global business.


fortune--2020-03-10--Sanders, Biden focus on Michigan amid voting in six key states

Former Vice President Joe Biden and Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders looked for a win in Michigan on Tuesday to prove they have the backing of working-class voters in a critical Midwestern battleground state that helped put President Donald Trump in the White House.
But whereas a victory would simply pad the lead of a suddenly confident Biden fresh off a Super Tuesday rout, a loss could hammer a Sanders campaign that is struggling to find big wins in the upcoming Democratic presidential primary states. Michigan is the biggest prize on a night when Missouri, Mississippi, North Dakota, Idaho and Washington state all vote.
“You’re the best damn workers in the world,” Biden shouted through a megaphone while touring a Detroit auto plant as workers in hard hats chanted, “Joe! Joe!”
Biden now frequently ticks off the names of six former presidential rivals who have endorsed him just in the past week, saying he is “the candidate that they think can win.” The former vice president has campaigned in recent days with two of them, Sens. Cory Booker and Kamala Harris, and appeared with Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer. All three have have been mentioned as possible vice presidential picks.
It wan’t all good feelings, though. While rallying at the auto plant, Biden was interrupted repeatedly by protesters angered by Biden’s support for the North American Free Trade Agreement and reluctance to embrace sweeping environmental proposals outlined in the Green New Deal. In a scuffle with demonstrators, Biden senior adviser Symone Sanders was knocked to the ground but was unhurt. Less than a week ago, she tackled a protester who rushed the stage as Biden spoke in California.
Biden also endured a testy exchange with a worker who accused him of “actively trying to end our Second Amendment right.” Biden responded, “You’re full of shit,” and went on to say that while he supports the Second Amendment, “Do you need 100 rounds?” Biden’s gun control plan reinstates the assault weapons ban and includes a voluntary buyback program for assault weapons, stopping short of a mandatory buyback program that some of his opponents had supported in the primary.
Trump won Michigan by only about 10,000 votes in 2016. That was even closer than Pennsylvania or Wisconsin, which, along with Michigan, are credited with handing the president a narrow Electoral College victory even as Hillary Clinton clinched the popular vote.
Sanders, who added credibility to his insurgent 2016 primary challenge of Clinton with a win in Michigan, has predicted he’ll emerge victorious there on Tuesday. If he doesn’t, though, he might be relegated to the role of simple protest candidate as Biden piles up a wide lead in delegates to the Democratic National Convention this summer in Milwaukee.
Although he has rejected notions he could drop out of the race if Tuesday goes badly, Sanders was visiting polling stations in Detroit on Tuesday, scrounging for late-breaking supporters. He’s said he’s now battling the “Democratic establishment” and scoffed at suggestions that so much of the party’s elite supporting his opponent means Biden is more electable.
“In a general election, which candidate can generate the enthusiasm and the excitement and the voter turnout we need?” Sanders asked. “If you want to defeat Trump, which all Democrats do and the majority of independents do and some Republicans do, we are that campaign.”
Detroit neighbors Fayette Turner and Margaret Marsh were split on which to support: Turner voted for Sanders, while Marsh voted for Biden. But they agreed on one thing.
“Anybody but Trump,” Turner, 64, said. Marsh, 69, said her family has identified as Republican her entire life — until Trump took office.
“The people I like best, they’re all gone,” Marsh said. “I think Biden’s the sanest one left. Hopefully he’ll have a good vice president.”
Voting didn’t go smoothly everywhere. Early Tuesday morning, the mayor of Kansas City, Missouri, tweeted that he had been turned away from voting because “I wasn’t in the system, even though I’ve voted there for 11 years.”
Sanders is optimistic about Washington state, Idaho and North Dakota, but Biden is looking for a strong finish in Missouri and Mississippi, where he could continue his success among African American voters. Michigan is vital because next week features a primary in Florida that is likely to dominate coverage and where Sanders’ past defense of Fidel Castro looms large — likely good news for Biden.
“If Sanders wins again, that could recast the race yet again. Then he can say, ‘I won a battleground state, a state that’s going to be key to the election,’” said Mark Brewer, a former longtime chairman of the Michigan Democratic Party. “If Biden wins, he can say the same thing.”
More must-read stories from Fortune:
—Bloomberg, Sanders, and Warren want to use post offices as banks
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Get up to speed on your morning commute with Fortune’s CEO Daily newsletter.


fortune--2020-03-10--Everyone has a role in limiting the impact of coronavirus

This is the web version of raceAhead, Fortune’s daily newsletter on race, culture, and inclusive leadership. To get it delivered daily to your inbox, sign up here.
By all indications, we’re still in the early stages of the COVID-19 outbreak in the U.S., and the worst is yet to come. “I think the next two weeks are going to be very difficult,” Dr. Scott Gottlieb, the most recent former Food and Drug Administration commissioner, told USA Today. “I think that this is going to play out over the next two months, but you’re really going to see a change, I think, in the country’s perception and mood and approach over the next two weeks.”
Limiting the scope of the epidemic must be the f ocus now, he says, since containment no longer appears to be an option.
And that means, for anyone who can, staying home and steering clear of other people.
It’s simply the right thing to do to help stop the spread of a potentially lethal illness and prevent a terrifying overload of the U.S. health care system. But it occurs to me that there are some simple ways to extend the spirit of empathy and community beyond handwashing and video conferencing. This is no time for rugged individualism.
Here are five ideas to help lighten the burden of COVID-19.
1. Be a good bystander.
I’ve felt the tension ratchet up in the last 48 hours alone. Cashiers, flight attendants, delivery people, beat cops, bus drivers, mail carriers, food servers, pharmacists, help desk personnel… for so many working people, interaction with the public now feels fraught. So, be extra kind. But if you see something, like an AAPI person being bullied or targeted because of their perceived connection to the virus, be a good bystander and intervene if you feel able. Bystander advice draws from a range of situations, but the practices always apply. Here are some tips on how to stay safe when intervening in person, find advice on addressing online harassment here. Bonus points if you stop people from calling it the “Chinese coronavirus.” That’s racist.
2. Consider overtipping.
Although you may be traveling less, you may still be encountering people who rely on tips for their living—food servers, hotel custodial staff, delivery people, taxi or ride-share drivers. Consider doubling what you might normally tip them. It’s a wash for you, as you’ll likely be spending less in the near future, and it will definitely make a big difference to them.
3. There are plenty of people who are already socially isolated.
While “social distancing” may be a new term for most of us, there are plenty of folks who are distant by default, rather than design. It’s got to be particularly frightening if you’re older, trying to manage an illness or disability, chronically lonely, or simply a newcomer to the job or a neighborhood. Now would be a good time to reach out from a safe distance—the phone still works!—and find out how they’re doing. Allyship alert: How about reaching out to the one “minority” person you sort of know at work and make a connection? Nothing says neutral common ground like a non-discriminatory killer virus you both share.
4. Understand how the COVID-19 response intersects with public policy.
There are a range of temporary unemployment insurance or paid sick day schemes being discussed, often on the state and local level, designed to allow low-wage workers or anyone without benefits to stay safely at home without destroying their finances. C onsider also very vulnerable populations — the elderly poor, people who are homeless or housing insecure, incarcerated people. What is the right way to mitigate their risk of infection and illness? Fortune will be covering all relevant policy news—subscribe to Fortune’s Outbreak newsletter for a daily roundup of stories on the coronavirus.
5. Remember, not everyone is safe in their home.
Around 12 million people are hurt, harassed, stalked, or raped by an intimate partner every year. The total costs to the U.S. economy of intimate violence exceed $8 billion a year, costing some $727.8 million in lost productivity alone. For a person at risk, this puts “working from home” in a terrifying light. And, as raceAhead has covered before, the vast majority of companies don’t have a formal domestic violence policy. If you’re in a position to support, create, or communicate workplace benefits designed to help people who may be dealing with intimate partner violence, now would be an excellent time to do so.
What else should be on the list? Let us know.
Ellen McGirt
@ellmcgirt
Ellen.McGirt@fortune.com
On Point
Chinese government claims credit for containing COVID-19 But some are crying foul, saying the success stories being circulated by the government are just dangerous propaganda. Early attempts to contain the virus fell short, say critics. And longstanding systemic issues—like the alleged shoddy construction that caused a hotel to collapse in the southeastern province of Fujian, and which was being used as a quarantine facility—have inspired people to find bold ways to confront their government and document their concerns. It’s dangerous work. One news anchor quit his job and began reporting independently from crematoriums and from buildings on lockdown. “I’m not willing to disguise my voice, nor am I willing to shut my eyes and close my ears,” he said in his last video dispatch, before he was detained.
Los Angeles Times
Canada aims to criminalize LGBTQ conversion therapy The new legislation is a Trudeau campaign promise kept; the proposed amendments to Canada’s Criminal Code would make the therapy itself illegal, as well as removing a minor person from Canada to undergo a “treatment” designed to suppress or change someone’s sexual orientation or gender identity. Advertising such services would also be illegal under the new rule. Well done, them.
Reuters
Mexican women launch "A Day Without Us" protest The 24-hour strike was designed to call attention to the shocking level of violence against women across the country; an unknown number stayed home from school, work, and other gatherings. The rate of femicide is bad and getting worse. About 10 women are murdered in Mexico each day, a figure that has increased 137% over the last five years and significantly outpaces the general homicide rate. "This is a very important cause, it's not a game, not a vacation day," Ileana Lopez, an administrator at a pharmaceutical company, told NPR. "Women have to fight for their rights every day."
NPR
On Background
Wrongly convicted, now free While prison snitches make good television drama, in real life, they’re deeply problematic. In a stunning and effective interactive feature, ProPublica profiles 10 men who were wrongly convicted of a serious crime, in part on the word of a jailhouse informant. The exonerees are all very different from each other. “Their cases afford a rare opportunity not only to see the human cost of jailhouse informant testimony that is false or concocted, but to see how widespread prosecutors’ reliance on these witnesses is,” say reporters Pamela Colloff and Katie Zavadski.
ProPublica
By erasing Islam from Rumi’s poetry, we all miss his point Rumi’s love poetry has been a revelation for seekers of universal wisdom around the world for centuries. But the New Yorker’s Rozina Ali argues that his popularity, particularly within high tone circles— Madonna, Tilda Swinton, and Coldplay’s Chris Martin are among his current celebrity fans—have allowed publishers to erase Rumi’s Muslim essence from his work to our detriment. But don’t blame rock and roll. “It was in the Victorian period that readers in the West began to uncouple mystical poetry from its Islamic roots.” It was Rumi’s unique experience at the intersection of Sufism, Sunni Islam, and Koranic debate that informed his voice, and animated his desire for oneness with God. But a committed contempt for Islam persuaded scholars over the years that Rumi was “mystical not because of Islam but in spite of it.”
New Yorker
I’m not normal and neither are you Relax, there really isn’t any such thing as normal. In the "The Myth of Optimality in Clinical Neuroscience," two members of Yale’s psych department use evolution to show that all brains are different. In fact, to expect uniformity is, well, abnormal. “We propose that, instead of examining behaviors in isolation, psychiatric illnesses can be best understood through the study of domains of functioning and associated [complex] patterns of variation across distributed brain systems,” they write. Put another way, limiting people to linear definitions of disease prevents them from enjoying a wide variety of behaviors and from being able to inhabit their full selves.
Quartz
Tamara El-Waylly produces raceAhead and manages the op-ed program.
Quote
“He allowed himself to be swayed by his conviction that human beings are not born once and for all on the day their mothers give birth to them, but that life obliges them over and over again to give birth to themselves.”
—Gabriel García Márquez, from Love in the Time of Cholera


fortune--2020-03-10--Sanders, Biden cancel Ohio rallies over coronavirus concerns

Democratic presidential candidates Bernie Sanders and Joe Biden abruptly canceled scheduled rallies Tuesday night in Cleveland amid concerns over the spread of the new coronavirus — as public health fears began transforming the 2020 race.
Sanders had been planning to speak at a convention center in Cleveland as results from six states voting in the Democratic presidential contests began rolling in. But he pulled the plug only about three hours before it was scheduled to start, and his campaign announced that decisions on future events would be made on a case-by-case basis.
“Out of concern for public health and safety, we are canceling tonight’s rally in Cleveland. We are heeding the public warnings from Ohio state officials, who have communicated concern about holding large, indoor events during the coronavirus outbreak,” Sanders’ campaign spokesman, Mike Casca, said in a statement. “All future Bernie 2020 events will be evaluated on a case by case basis.”
A Biden spokesman initially suggested the former vice president’s own event in Cleveland would go on as scheduled, but his campaign subsequently released a statement saying it was off.
Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine declared a state of emergency after three individuals from Cuyahoga County, which includes Cleveland, tested positive for the virus that causes COVID-19.
For most people, the new coronavirus causes only mild or moderate symptoms, such as fever and cough. For some, especially older adults and people with existing health problems, it can cause more severe illness, including pneumonia.
Sanders is 78. Biden is 77.
The vast majority of people recover from the virus. According to the World Health Organization, people with mild illness recover in about two weeks, while those with more severe illness may take three to six weeks to do so.
On Sunday, President Donald Trump’s campaign communications director Tim Murtaugh said, “The campaign is proceeding as normal.” But the campaign hasn’t announced another rally to follow the president’s last one in North Carolina on March 2. Up until now, it had been keeping a steady pace of rallies this year. The 73-year-old president is still scheduled to travel to Las Vegas and Denver this week for fundraisers and a speech to the Republican Jewish Coalition.
Anthony Fauci, the nation’s leading infectious disease expert, has stopped short of calling on candidates to put a pause on political rallies. But he also isn’t faulting anyone who chooses to do so, saying that what “they’re probably acting on is what they would consider for their citizens, an abundance of caution.”
“I wouldn’t criticize them for that. They’re using their own individual judgment,” Fauci said. “And to me, I think that that would be proven.”
But he also added: “This is a something in motion. This is an evolving thing” so “if you’re talking about a campaign rally tomorrow in a place where there is no community spread, I think the judgment to have it might be a good judgment.”
More must-read stories from Fortune:
—Bloomberg, Sanders, and Warren want to use post offices as banks
—Politics with your coffee? These cafés are taking sides
—Are we undergoing an industrial revolution or a phase change?
—How the 2020 election could influence your personal finances
—WATCH: What happens to leftover campaign funds once a candidate drops out?
Get up to speed on your morning commute with Fortune’s CEO Daily newsletter.


fortune--2020-03-10--Stocks rise sharply in more turbulent trading

Stocks on Tuesday recouped most of their historic losses from the prior day as hopes rose, faded, and then bloomed again on Wall Street that the U.S. government will try to cushion the economic pain from the coronavirus.
The S&P 500 surged as much as 3.7% in the morning, only to see those gains evaporate by midday. The index then bounced up and down before turning decisively higher after President Donald Trump pitched his ideas for a break on payroll taxes and other economic relief to Senate Republicans.
By the end of trading, the S&P 500 was up 4.9% and had erased three-fifths of Monday’s loss.
The moves reflected the mood of a market just as preoccupied with the virus as the rest of the world. Since U.S. stocks set their record high just a few weeks ago, traders have crossed over from dismissing the economic pain created by COVID-19 — thinking it’s similar to the flu and could stay mostly contained in China — to being in thrall to it — worrying that it may cause a worldwide recession.
Severe price swings are likely to continue as long as the number of infections accelerates, market watchers say. In the meantime, investors want to see a big, coordinated response from governments and central banks to shore up the virus-weakened economy.
Monday’s 7.6% plunge for U.S. stocks was the sharpest since 2008, when global authorities banded together to rescue the economy from the financial crisis.
Investors saw glimmers of such a coordinated response, which led to Tuesday’s optimism.
At a White House press briefing Monday night, Trump said his administration would be asking Congress to pass payroll tax relief and other quick measures aimed at easing the impact of the coronavirus on workers.
In Japan, a task force set up by the prime minister approved a 430 billion yen ($4.1 billion) package Tuesday with support for small to medium-sized businesses.
But as markets waited on Tuesday for details about Trump’s plan, prices oscillated sharply.
After a meeting with major health insurers, Trump said the government is working with the cruise line industry, one of the hardest hit by the virus. That helped lift the market, which had earlier flipped to losses amid doubts that the government would announce anything soon.
The S&P 500 shuffled along with modest gains until rocketing higher in the last two hours of trading. That’s when Trump made his pitch for economic aid on Capitol Hill. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin also met with House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, whose support would be needed for any deal in a deeply divided Congress. Mnuchin called the meeting productive.
“I would expect the authorities to pull out all the stops to reduce uncertainty,” said Alec Young, managing director of global markets research at FTSE Russell. “This may be their one opportunity to do that.”
Perhaps the most notable move in markets Tuesday was that Treasury yields pushed higher. The bond market rang warning bells about the virus long before the stock market, and a rise in yields is a sign that fear has receded a bit.
The 10-year Treasury yield rose to 0.79% from 0.49% late Monday. A week ago, it had never been below 1%.
The S&P 500 rose 135.67 points, or 4.9%, to 2,882.23. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1,167.14 points, or 4.9%, to 25,018.16, and the Nasdaq composite jumped 393.58, or 5%, to 8,344.25.
The recovery is pulling the stock market a bit further from the edge of a bear market, signified by a drop of 20% from a record. The S&P 500 is down 14.9% from its high. If it can rally back to that point, it would extend the longest-ever bull market, which began its climb after the market hit bottom on March 9, 2009.
Brent crude, the international standard, rose $2.86, or 8.3%, to settle at $37.22 a barrel, while benchmark U.S. crude rose $3.23, or 10.4%, to $34.36 a barrel. Oil prices plunged 25% on Monday amid a price war between producers, who are pulling more oil out of the ground even though demand is falling due to the virus.
For most people, the new coronavirus causes only mild or moderate symptoms, such as fever and cough. For some, especially older adults and people with existing health problems, it can cause more severe illness, including pneumonia.
The vast majority of people recover from the new virus. According to the World Health Organization, people with mild illness recover in about two weeks, while those with more severe illness may take three to six weeks to recover. In mainland China, where the virus first exploded, more than 80,000 people have been diagnosed and more than 58,000 have so far recovered.
But because the virus is new, experts can’t say for sure how far it will ultimately spread. That has investors worried about the worst-case scenario for corporate profits and the economy, where factories and supply chains are shut around the world due to quarantines and people stay huddled at home instead of working or spending.
Investors expect central banks around the world, which have done some of the heaviest lifting to prop up markets the last decade, to do more to cushion the blow.
Traders expect the Fed to cut rates again at its meeting next week. They’re also expecting some kind of action from the European Central Bank, which meets on Thursday.
But central banks have limited firepower, and some have already cut rates blow zero. That adds pressure on governments to do what they can as well. Investors are asking for quick, coordinated aid to provide support to companies and households who are going to be out income because of the virus.
For strategists at BlackRock Investment Institute, that could include generous sick-pay programs or even direct payments to households. For businesses, governments could suspend collecting tax revenue to give them some temporary relief and hold on to cash as the world waits for the outbreak to be contained.
“That would prevent these temporary disruptions from turning into a full-blown global recession,” strategists at BlackRock Investment Institute wrote in a report.
Until then, many investors have had a “sell-first, ask questions later” reaction to the uncertainty, said Greg McBride, chief financial analyst at Bankrate.com.
Still, he urges investors to avoid changing their long-term investment strategies, which can play out over years or decades, because of short-term volatility.
“Markets fall quickly, but they can rebound rapidly,” McBride said. “Investing is a marathon, not a sprint.”
More coronavirus coverage from Fortune:
—How coronavirus is affecting the global concert industry
—Politicians around the world are going into quarantine
—Some of the most extreme ways companies are combating coronavirus
—How Europe is adapting to the coronavirus outbreak
—What Xi Jinping’s visit to Wuhan says about China’s coronavirus recovery
—Conferences go online amid coronavirus fears—minus the hallway schmoozing
—Coronavirus may not be all bad for tech. Consider the “stay at home” stocks
Subscribe to Fortune’s Outbreak newsletter for a daily roundup of stories on the coronavirus outbreak and its impact on global business.


fortune--2020-03-10--Gilead’s coronavirus treatment is already being used in Washington state

Subscribe to Fortune’s Outbreak newsletter for a daily roundup of stories on the coronavirus outbreak and its impact on global business.
Gilead’s experimental drug remdesivir has been touted by public health officials at the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) and the World Health Organization (WHO) as one of the most—if not the most—promising antivirals to fight the new coronavirus strain.
CDC director Robert Redfield added to the buzz on Tuesday, stating that that Gilead’s pathogen-fighting COVID-19 treatment is already being deployed in Washington state, where the virus had claimed nearly two dozen lives as of Monday.
Redfield, during Congressional testimony before a House of Representatives committee regarding the CDC’s budget and spending priorities in the wake of the coronavirus outbreak, said that “remdesivir is available right now on compassionate use,” in Washington. Preliminary results for the treatment’s effectiveness will likely become clearer in mere months, according to Redfield.
Compassionate use is an analogue of the Food and Drug Administration’s expanded access program, which speeds up access to treatments that haven’t received marketing approval to patients who may direly need them—especially in emergency situations.
That could include a patient who has “a serious disease or condition, or whose life is immediately threatened by their disease or condition,” according to the FDA. It appears that coronavirus cases, at least in hard-hit regions, clear that standard.
But Gilead’s therapy has rapidly progressed through the clinical trial process in the midst of the COVID-19 crisis. It’s already being used in human clinical trials in the U.S. on top of later-stage studies in other nations that are being affected by coronavirus.
Washington’s public health department and Gilead have not yet responded to Fortune‘s multiple requests for comment about how remdesivir is being used in the state.
More coronavirus coverage from Fortune:
—Coronavirus and the flu have similar symptoms. So, how are they different?
—How coronavirus is affecting the global concert industry
—Politicians around the world are going into quarantine
—Some of the most extreme ways companies are combating coronavirus
—How Europe is adapting to the coronavirus outbreak
—What Xi Jinping’s visit to Wuhan says about China’s coronavirus recovery
—Conferences go online amid coronavirus fears—minus the hallway schmoozing
—Coronavirus may not be all bad for tech. Consider the “stay at home” stocks
Subscribe to Fortune’s Outbreak newsletter for a daily roundup of stories on the coronavirus outbreak and its impact on global business.


fortune--2020-03-10--Trump says he has no coronavirus symptoms, doesn’t need to be tested

President Donald Trump said he doesn’t need to be tested for the coronavirus, even after being in contact with Republicans who have quarantined themselves out of concern they might be infected.
“There’s no symptoms, no anything,” Trump told reporters on Capitol Hill, where he met with GOP lawmakers.
Trump said the White House doctor told him there wasn’t a reason for the president to be tested.
Mark Meadows, the veteran Republican congressman from North Carolina who is taking over as Trump’s chief of staff, and Republican representatives Doug Collins of Georgia and Matt Gaetz of Florida, said Monday they had entered self-imposed quarantine.
Senator Ted Cruz and Representative Paul Gosar, both of Texas, had earlier announced they had isolated themselves. All the congressmen attended a political conference two weeks ago where they came into contact with a person who was discovered to have been infected.
Collins met Trump on Friday at the airport before a tour of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in Atlanta, and Gaetz flew to Washington from Orlando, Florida, with the president on Monday. Gaetz tweeted on Tuesday that he had tested negative for the virus but would remain in self-quarantine until Thursday.
More must-read stories from Fortune:
—Bloomberg, Sanders, and Warren want to use post offices as banks
—Politics with your coffee? These cafés are taking sides
—Are we undergoing an industrial revolution or a phase change?
—How the 2020 election could influence your personal finances
—WATCH: What happens to leftover campaign funds once a candidate drops out?
Get up to speed on your morning commute with Fortune’s CEO Daily newsletter.


fortune--2020-03-10--How high-frequency algorithmic trading programs can make bad stock market days even worse

The stock market has had one of its most tumultuous months on record, with the S&P 500, Dow and Nasdaq all soaring to new highs in mid-February only to crash to within a whisker of bear territory on Monday. Market watchers once again are casting a suspicious eye on the role of high-frequency algorithmic trading in exacerbating the slide.
Algorithmic trading, where a computer automatically executes trades based on pre-programmed instructions, has been around for a long time and is now a big factor in the daily ups and downs of the stock market. The days when you would call your broker to instruct a human to place the trade are mostly gone.
A computer makes “buy” or “sell” decisions quickly and dispassionately, unburdened by emotion or instinct that might cloud human judgement.
“Dangerous accelerant”…
But, when the markets fall dramatically, as they did on Monday, algorithmic trading is often accused of magnifying the market slump, and fueling investor panic. When stop-loss limits are triggered en masse, for example, it can lead to a snowball selling effect, sending a market into a downward spiral.
In the midst of Monday’s historic sell-off, some markets observers were pointing a finger at algorithmic trading as a possible cause, calling it a “dangerous accelerant of volatility.”
It’s notable, however, that you rarely hear criticism of computerized trading when stocks are booming.
Guy De Blonay, a fund manager at Jupiter Asset Management, told CNBC in 2018 that 80% of daily moves in U.S. stocks were machine-led, while Marko Kolanovic, global head of quantitative and derivatives research at J.P. Morgan, said in 2017 that “fundamental discretionary traders” accounted for only about 10% of trading volume in stocks, compared with 60% for passive and quantitative investing, which uses algorithms to make investment decisions.
The advantages of algorithmic trading, typically used by institutional investors and hedge funds, are speed of execution, lower trading costs and sticking to a consistent strategy.
An algorithm might be designed to momentum strategy—that is buy stocks that are rising, or sell shares that are falling. Or, the software is programmed to buy or sell shares that have broken above or below their recent trading range.
And so when the markets lurch significantly lower, the software will quickly execute big sell orders. The U.S. markets have so-called staged circuit breakers to halt trading when shares surge down 7%—and later by 13% and 20%. That’s precisely what happened a few minutes into the trading session on Monday.
…or markets shock-absorber?
Algorithmic trading also enables investors to make lucrative arbitrage trades by identifying tiny differences in the price of assets, perhaps profiting from exchange rates fluctuations.
Computers can also be programmed to react instantaneously, and in a set way, to timed releases of economic data—think jobs numbers or Fed interest rates moves—which can magnify their impact on markets.
The software can also be used to avoid big hiccups during the trading day. For example, big institutional investors, such as pension funds, making a large stock purchase, may break up their order into a lot of smaller orders, using automated trading software to avoid driving up the price of the shares.
Flash crash
Algorithmic trading is increasingly being coupled with machine learning to create ever more sophisticated automated investing.
Investment bank J.P. Morgan said last year it was applying machine learning to provide competitive pricing, and optimize execution in the $6.6 trillion-a-day foreign exchange market with its Deep Neural Network for Algo Execution (DNA).
Meanwhile, investors are increasingly turning to robo-advisors, which use algorithms to create and manage online investment strategies tailored to an individual’s goals.
A sub-set of algorithmic trading is high-frequency trading, where investors buy or sell shares in a fraction of a second, seeking to profit from tiny fluctuations in prices. High-frequency trading brings liquidity to markets but the practice is controversial as it’s blamed for contributing to a number of unexplained market crashes.
On May 6, 2010, around $1 trillion was wiped off U.S. stocks as the Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged by nearly 1,000 points in a bizarre “flash crash” before recovering most of the losses.
An official 2010 report said the crash happened on a nervous day in the markets when a mutual fund sold $4.1 billion of EMini S&P 500 futures contracts via an automated execution algorithm in 20 minutes, precipitating a liquidity crisis in the EMini market.
Since then, algorithmic trades are thought to have magnified a number of flash crashes in the foreign exchange market.
Michael Lewis, in his 2014 book “Flash Boys”, alleged that high-frequency traders used split-second advantages provided by ultra-high-speed communications to make billions at the expense of other market players.
Since then, a growing number of exchanges have created “speed bumps”, tiny delays in executing trades, to blunt the advantage of the high-frequency traders, as The Wall Street Journal recently reported.
More must-read stories from Fortune:
—Why plunging Treasury yields are so alarming
—Furious Robinhood customers want payback following two day outage
—Why investors suddenly turned on pot stocks
—With stocks down sharply are we approaching”buy” territory? Not by a longshot.
—Why it’s so hard to find the next Warby Parker
Subscribe to Fortune’s Bull Sheet for no-nonsense finance news and analysis daily.


fortune--2020-03-10--The new Land Rover Defender is a case study in modernizing classic design

How do you modernize a classic?
Raymond Loewy, one of the 20th century’s most successful designers, would offer consumers a product that was new, but not too new. Loewy called his theory MAYA, short for “most advanced yet acceptable.” In his 2017 book Hitmakers, Atlantic editor Derek Thompson summarizes the idea: If you want to sell something surprising, make it familiar; to sell something familiar, make it surprising.
Designers at Jaguar Land Rover (JLR) faced a very practical test of that theory several years ago, when the company decided to resurrect the Defender, the four-wheel drive workhorse that’s defined the brand for generations. JLR unveiled a radically redesigned version of the Defender at the Frankfurt motor show in September. The new model, which takes a star turn in this trailer for the new James Bond movie No Time to Die, is scheduled to go on sale globally this spring.
Not everyone is pleased, but the auto press seems to like it.
More than 2 million Defenders have been built since the original Land Rover Series 1 debuted in 1948. They’re big, boxy, nearly indestructible gas guzzlers. Rechristened as the Defender in 1990, an estimated 80% are still on the road. The retro design has amassed a kind of cult following; the vehicle of choice for Britain’s military, it’s beloved by ordinary farmers as well as Winston Churchill, Sean Connery, and the Queen.
A reluctance to evolve was part of what made the Defender so cool—and almost did it in.
The new Defenders (there are two models) are unabashedly modern. They come with heated seats, smart LED headlamps, and a matrix of computers, cameras, and electronic sensors. Prices will start at around $50,000 and run up to $81,000 for the most expensive package. In a press release, Land Rover’s chief design officer Gerry McGovern described the new Defender as “respectful of the past but not harnessed by it.”
But in a recent interview with GearPatrol, McGovern went further, essentially dismissing Loewy’s incremental approach—and the oft-heard assertion that designers must defer to what customers say they want. The whole interview is well worth reading, but here’s my favorite bit:
“I don’t get people coming up to me saying, ‘Oh, could you make it more retrospective?’ I don’t get marketing coming up to me saying, could you do this, could you do that? I’m the spiritual leader for the brand. I define what that vision is, and my team executes it … Design is a discipline, and somebody who just criticizes design and looks at design, they’re not experts. I’ve spent my whole life designing stuff.”
More design news below.
Clay Chandler
@ClayChandler
Clay.Chandler@Fortune.com
NEWS BY DESIGN
This edition of Business By Design was curated by Margaret Rhodes.
Courtesy of Iwan Baan
Architecture’s highest honor. Yvonne Farrell and Shelley McNamara, the founders of Grafton Architects in Dublin, won this year’s Pritzker Architecture Prize for their approach to community-oriented buildings. Of 46 laureates, they are the fourth and fifth women to win the prize.
Surveillance state, but make it transparent. To assuage concerns around privacy, Alphabet company Sidewalk Labs is experimenting with public signage to inform pedestrians of where and how their data is being collected. Much of smart city infrastructure is invisible; new iconography could help citizens grok what’s at play.
AI is not neutral. Inspired by the United Nations’ 1948 Universal Declaration of Human Rights, the Human Rights Centered Design methodology outlines the privacy and sovereignty that tech should afford Internet users. Designers developing AI-powered technology can look to these standards to make ethical decisions.
Democracy error 404. Another Tuesday, another failed piece of voting technology. Last time it was the disastrously designed Iowa caucus app. This time Los Angeles’s new voting machines—meant to make elections more accessible—experienced glitches and kept spitting paper ballots back out.
Designed to last. Fashion designer Gabriela Hearst stopped by the Time Sensitive podcast and offered a new definition for luxury fashion, based on sustainability: “Luxury takes a deeper knowledge into how the product is made … it has to have a longstanding durability.”
Pastel, sans serif, and filled with plants. What does the pervasiveness of the millennial aesthetic among companies such as Casper, Glossier, and Thinx tell us about their consumers? “If you simultaneously can’t afford any frills and can’t afford any failure, you end up with millennial design,” The Cut’s Molly Fischer writes.
EVENTS BY DESIGN
March 19: John Maeda will release his Design in Tech report. Visit Maeda’s YouTube channel to watch.
April 1: Deadline to enter the Core77 Design Awards.
April 3-5: Offset will hold its conference in Dublin.
April 14-17: Design Thinking 2020 will be held in Austin. The theme is “Beyond Design: Moving from Practice to Transformation.” John Maeda will give a keynote.
April 17: Deadline to enter Fast Company’s 2020 Innovation by Design Awards.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Mindless consumption is going out of style, according to a report from Ziba Design. Faced with an uncertain economy and news about climate disaster, consumers want to spend wiser and lessen their impact on the environment. Ziba’s report says that 88% of consumers surveyed want brands to help them make these changes, signaling business opportunity for companies. With that in mind, Ziba describes three ways these companies can speak to people:
Practice “subtraction,” such as selling products recycled from ocean plastics,
Enable the daily rituals involved in group meals or skincare routines, and
Help consumers form good habits with cleverly-designed products.
BRAINSTORM SESSION
“The architecture of justice”
What is the designer’s role in bringing about restorative justice? Architect Deanna Van Buren’s career orbits around that question. Through her firm Designing Justice/Designing Spaces, Van Buren designs physical spaces to help rehabilitate those who’ve been incarcerated. At Restore Oakland, for instance, sunny rooms with mid-century modern furniture host conflict resolution sessions as a prison alternative. In Atlanta, Van Buren is currently at work converting a closed detention center into an “equity center” where formerly incarcerated people can seek job placement or take financial literacy classes.
In her pursuit to “rethink the architecture of justice,” as The New York Times recently put it, Van Buren hopes to rewire a system that has disproportionately targeted communities of color and invent places where those perpetrators and victims can open up together and make peace. Some of that therapy is hard to imagine in a typical prison setting, with metal bars, concrete floors, and little to no privacy. Van Buren’s buildings give people space to lessen the emotional weight they carry.
Van Buren’s work is key to the movement to end mass incarceration. “People have always been like, ‘Oh, so you’re designing better prisons?’ I’m like, ‘No, I’m saying we don’t do them,’ ” she recently said on Legal Talk Network. Instead, she works with community activists and lawyers to convince cities to embrace centers for healing. “Restorative justice is a powerful tool … there are a bunch of judges I know who are like, ‘Yeah, I want more tools.’ We’re finding that restorative justice works best in cases of severe violence, and that survivors of violence prefer restorative justice to incarceration because they actually feel safer.”
QUOTED BY DESIGN
Design in the time of coronavirus
“Often in companies, up to 90 per cent of all goods are made in China from oil-derived substances such as plastic and polyester. We will soon see shelves empty of shoes, phones, clothes and even toothpaste … We will be in a position of having a blank page for a new beginning because lots of companies and money will be wiped out in the process of slowing down. Redirecting and restarting will require a lot of insight and audacity to build a new economy with other values and ways of handling production, transport, distribution and retail.”
— Dutch forecaster Li Edelkoort, reflecting on how the coronavirus might reset our consumption habits, in an interview with Dezeen founder Marcus Fairs. (She conducted her interview via email, while self-quarantined, after attending last month’s Design Indaba in Cape Town.)


fortune--2020-03-10--The U.S. can’t contain coronavirus, it just hopes to mitigate its impact

The window for fully containing the coronavirus has passed in some parts of the U.S. and the White House will roll out plans later Tuesday to mitigate its impact.
Vice President Mike Pence is expected later Tuesday to roll out a wider mitigation strategy for places dealing with outbreaks, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Director Robert Redfield said at a hearing in Washington on Tuesday.
“In general, we’re in a containment, blended mitigation,” Redfield said. “In some areas we’re in high mitigation.”
The mitigation plans, which have yet to be released by the White House, are an acknowledgment that efforts to track down and contain individual cases have failed in some places, and that the coronavirus is spreading from person-to-person outside the confines of quarantines and isolation.
Many of the measures are likely to be the types of steps that U.S. health officials have discussed for weeks, such as canceling large gatherings like sports matches, closing some schools, asking people to work from home, and taking steps to protect vulnerable people such as the elderly or those with underlying health conditions. Those actions could result in significant disruptions of daily life for some people.
“The United States was always going to see a substantial number of cases,” Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar said at a separate event in Washington on Tuesday. Azar has been helping coordinate the federal response. His remarks are a departure from President Donald Trump’s public assessments of the situation, in which he has repeatedly said the U.S. had contained the virus.
Redfield said that hospitals had limited extra capacity at present. Because of a strong, late flu season, hospitals are at 95% capacity or higher.
“We really don’t have a lot of resilience in the capacity of our health-care system,” Redfield said. While most patients who get the coronavirus experience moderate to severe symptoms, some people need to be hospitalized and given support to help breathe. In Northern Italy, health workers there have described hospitals as swamped by the thousands of cases that rose up within a few weeks.
Hospitals typically have plans in place to repurpose beds and expand capacity to respond to emergencies.
The CDC plans to work with local governments on the plan, Redfield said. States including Washington, California, New York and Massachusetts are all dealing with significant clusters of disease, and have reported multiple cases of Covid-19, as the disease is called, without ties to known outbreaks or travelers.
In the early stages of an outbreak when the number of cases is small, health officials can focus on tracking down and isolating individual cases. It’s akin to stomping out a few embers that have jumped from a fire.
Redfield said the U.S.’s failure to quickly roll out tests for the virus had impeded the U.S.’s early efforts. Because of flaws with the original CDC tests, it took weeks for state and local labs to get working tests for the virus, hobbling their attempts to identify patients and isolate them.
“If you’re a week late,” Redfield told Congress, “it matters.”
Anthony Fauci, head of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said in an interview on NPR that aired Tuesday that test capacity is increasing.
“Earlier on, because of some missteps that have been corrected, they were not allowed out there,” Fauci said. “But that has been corrected.”
More coronavirus coverage from Fortune:
—How coronavirus is affecting the global concert industry
—Politicians around the world are going into quarantine
—Some of the most extreme ways companies are combating coronavirus
—How Europe is adapting to the coronavirus outbreak
—What Xi Jinping’s visit to Wuhan says about China’s coronavirus recovery
—Conferences go online amid coronavirus fears—minus the hallway schmoozing
—Coronavirus may not be all bad for tech. Consider the “stay at home” stocks
Subscribe to Fortune’s Outbreak newsletter for a daily roundup of stories on the coronavirus outbreak and its impact on global business.


fortune--2020-03-10--Coronavirus may finally force businesses to adopt workplaces of the future

The coronavirus is a terrible public health threat, but there is a hidden upside: It gives us a chance to rethink how work is organized and bring our policies into the 21st century.
To protect their workforce, firms are asking people to work at home. Our new research shows that more flexible work policies that give workers more control over when, where, and how they work don’t hurt business performance. Instead, such policies can lead to less stressed, more satisfied employees who are less likely to quit.
Today some firms do offer flex schedules, telecommuting, and reduced hours, but too often these arrangements are negotiated individually. An employee has to ask permission. The trouble with the “Mother may I?” model is that these arrangements are exceptions, not the rule; most employees are expected to work at the workplace, even as they are also presumed to be accessible 24/7.
Too often, there have been negative career consequences for those seeking to work at different times and places. Doing so can lead to poor performance evaluations, fewer promotions, and little in the way of salary growth. And, because women and especially moms are more likely to ask to work differently, gender inequality is reinforced. Wary of those costs, many employees who would like or need to work more flexibly shy away from requesting such “special privileges.”
Enter the coronavirus, and suddenly having employees work from home becomes much more attractive to companies. For many employees, it may be the only way to work for a period.
Based on an experiment we conducted with colleagues over a five-year period where flexibility was legitimated as “the way we work here” in the IT division of a Fortune 500 company, we believe businesses will find positive consequences to this new approach—provided their employees have more control over when they work and supervisors signal their support of workers’ personal lives.
Our study randomly assigned 56 teams in the company to one of two groups: The experimental group was given wide latitude on when and where to work, together with supervisor support for these new ways of working, while the control group continued working as usual. What we found in the group that had increased scheduling flexibility augurs well for making work-at-home arrangements the norm and fully accepted by leadership.
Employees feel less stressed, more energized, and report a greater sense of well-being. With fewer interruptions, employees are more productive—better able to concentrate, take stock of the tasks at hand, and innovate. Burnout goes down, and job satisfaction goes up. Teams concentrate on high-value results, getting rid of low-value routines (such as unnecessary meetings) that actually impede high performance. Teams develop ways of communicating that are effective, efficient, and enable time for concentrated work effort as well as for personal or family life. Time usually spent in stressful and often long commutes morphs into more relaxed time for personal pursuits or for concentrating on work. And with higher levels of job satisfaction, employees are less likely to look for other jobs or quit.
To be sure, the coronavirus situation brings real challenges beyond serious health concerns. Employees forced to work at home may not feel the same sense of control over their work choices as the participants in our study did. If schools close, many employees will be juggling their work with family needs daily. And there are still a great many jobs where the employee’s presence is required, as with many health care workers and low-income service workers. Around 30% of U.S. private company employees have no paid sick days, meaning they have to decide whether to lose income or stay home. Furthermore, if companies cut shifts or send hourly service workers home because of reduced customer demand, those workers and their families will face financial hits.
But for the many companies where employees can work remotely, the coronavirus crisis may be the nudge that companies need to let go of outdated policies and practices—and discover that working differently can be advantageous for everyone involved.
Erin L. Kelly is the Sloan distinguished professor of work and organization studies at the MIT Sloan School of Management.
Phyllis Moen holds the McKnight endowed presidential chair in sociology at the University of Minnesota.
Their book, Overload: How Good Jobs Went Bad and What We Can Do About It, is available on March 17.
More opinion in Fortune:
—Why Warren dropping out shouldn’t cause women to give up hope
—Does Trump Have a Swing State Economy Problem? Yes—and No
—Limiting this governmental emergency power could curb presidential overreach
—Want to solve America’s problems? Start with broadband
—Why you’re mad as hell about the Astros, but not Wells Fargo
Listen to our audio briefing, Fortune 500 Daily


fortune--2020-03-10--Diao Yinan discusses ‘The Wild Goose Lake,’ his Chinese motorcycle noir

Visually breathtaking and staged with singularly arresting style, Diao Yinan’s The Wild Goose Lake relocates film noir within the rain-slicked streets and hardscrabble realities of China’s “second-tier” cities.
Set in and around Wuhan, the capital of the country’s bustling Hubei province (currently quarantined amid the coronavirus outbreak), the film focuses on the corruption and inequity of life just beyond China’s towering megacities. Diao, best known for directing 2014’s Black Coal, Thin Ice (which won its year’s Berlinale), is marvelously skilled at telling distinctly Chinese stories—of economic poverty and quiet lawlessness, heavy-handed police and amoral civilians just scraping by—in the language of noir.
His latest follows a small-time gangster, Zhou Zenong (Hu Ge), who’s forced into hiding after inadvertently killing a police officer in the process of navigating a turf war between rival gangs of motorcycle thieves. Struggling to fend off both law enforcement and a more ruthless array of mobsters out for blood, he eventually intersects with Liu Aiai (Gwei Lun-mei), a sex worker with mysterious motivations of her own. Together, they hatch a convoluted scheme through which he can discreetly collect the bounty on his own head, even as enemies led by police captain Liu (Liao Fan) close in from every direction. It’s a vibrant, labyrinthine story in which every perfectly composed sequence—police storming a complex with brutal intent, a nocturnal motorcycle chase down neon-lit backroads, a public dance in which light-up sneakers gleam through the night until they’re flecked with blood—draws the audience deeper into its surreal, heightened atmosphere.
A massive hit upon its release in China, The Wild Goose Lake made its way along the international festival circuit this past year—including a stop at the New York Film Festival last fall, where Diao and a translator sat for an interview with Fortune. Currently screening at New York’s Film Forum, The Wild Goose Lake is rolling out in U.S. theaters across March and will hit VOD shortly thereafter.
The following conversation has been edited and condensed for clarity.
In bringing The Wild Goose Lake along the festival circuit, what differences have you observed between American and European audiences in terms of their reactions to this Chinese noir?
The New York audience is very different from the Cannes audience. At Cannes, they tend to take it all very seriously in terms of how to offer critiques, how to see the problems of the narrative and structure. In New York, they tend to be more relaxed. They’re cinephiles, and they love films. They immerse themselves into them and react in a lively manner. I’ve tallied, and there are maybe 15 moments in the movie where the New York audience laughs out loud, two or three where people are really shocked and taken aback by the graphic details of the imagery, and two or three instances where they’re visibly engrossed by not only the mood but the plotlines in the story.
Hu (left) and Gwei Lun-mei as Liu Aiai (right) in “The Wild Goose Lake.” “This film is not so much about narrative meanings and much more about actions and movements,” says Diao of his film. Film Movement
The film balances violence and humor, humanity and darkness, and it’s all shot through in such a visually gorgeous manner. What was your original vision of The Wild Goose Lake, and how did you work to merge those elements together on screen?
To me, the original idea was, “How can I capture characters and story using pure filmmaking languages, in terms of imagery and vocabulary?” I wanted to resort to actions moreso than dialogue and words, because I do think we as human beings—and especially these characters—are the sum of our actions. I wanted to capture those actions in a vivid way and in doing so capture the quality of what these characters embody. From there, I could tease out their humor and humanity.
Narratively, I really wanted to stray from conventional Hollywood structures, which tend to be very polished and also linear in terms of framework. They want to make sure the audience “gets it,” immediately, without any difficulty in decoding the film. In order to capture a contemporary feel [to the noir genre,] I needed to fragment it, to fracture the narrative structure in a way that I was creating certain barriers, hurdles, and challenges for audiences. I force them to be part of that process of interpreting, decoding what they’re looking at, rather than just passively looking at this dogma being preached onto the audience… I wanted to create challenges so the audience will be forced to participate.
Film noir tends to explore these archetypes in terms of character—the gangster, the cop, the femme fatale. How did you select the kind of lead character you wanted to have a role in your reinvention of the subgenre?
The themes of this particular film can be boiled down to the character of Zhou Zenong and how he, just like everyone else, wishes to foresee his own death. He thinks about death, how he’s going to die. In this case, he questions, “How am I going to die in a way I have full control of?” This creates some sense of aesthetic, his [inevitable] dying becoming a way to show how he’d been escaping from his previous life, his ex-wife, his family, and then—because of this chance encounter and also the killing of the cop—this chain of events that’s initiated. He realizes that he can design or plan his death in a way that might somehow redeem him and give meaning to his life.
It’s fascinating how that battle plays out in the film, as Zenong runs from the cops but also struggles to escape his own senses of guilt and responsibility. The Wild Goose Lake becomes beautifully abstract in places, seeming more to wash over you than it does to adhere to a straightforward narrative. How did you craft aesthetics that would match and mirror your intentions as a storyteller?
We wanted to narrow in on the actions and gestures of the characters, because I believe those actions really embody what’s going on within them emotionally and psychologically. If you look at the Kabuki theatre in Japan, it’s not so much about the narrative or plot lines. We know those stories well, by heart, but when we see those shows again and again, it’s to see how each actor and actress onstage uses their body to tell the story in such an abstract way, whether it’s the pitch of their voice or the way they move their fingers and their bodies. It’s the purest form of expression and abstraction, to somehow tease out what’s going on in one’s inner soul. This film is not so much about narrative meanings and much more about actions and movements.
Hu (back left) in a scene from “The Wild Goose Lake.” Diao says the film’s atmosphere and characters “share this idea of what people do in these gray, dystopian areas.” Film Movement
The Wild Goose Lake, within Wuhan, reimagines that space as so belonging to the noir subgenre, with all its rain-slicked streets and dark alleyways. Can you tell me about crafting that setting?
The other aspect of this ideal abstraction, the atmosphere, is very much about the space that has been selected. In this formal way of thinking about city planning, you have an ideal of what an urban society means. There’s this almost utopia image of what it means to live in urban contemporary cities. Beneath that, or on the peripheral areas of this utopia space, you also have these dystopian spaces or locations. That’s very prevalent in contemporary Chinese society, when you’re somewhere around these suburban areas, entering development zones and parks by the highways, bars and sleazy hotels in suburban towns. Those are spaces that can become very mysterious, and they’re also the space and location of much controversy—the gray area between what’s legal and illegal, what’s right and wrong. The atmosphere and characters I wanted to create in this particular film share this idea of what people do in these gray, dystopian areas, how they actualize themselves through the actions and gestures they make.
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fortune--2020-03-10--Harvard to students: Move out by Sunday. Don’t come back.

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Harvard University’s decision Tuesday to shift to an online learning model amid the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak isn’t unique. Princeton and Fordham have both suspended in-person classes as well. But Harvard is taking things a step further.
The school has given students until March 15—this Sunday—to move out of their houses and first-year dorms. And it’s telling them not to come back for the rest of the semester.
“Students should treat the Sunday move-out like an ordinary May move-out and remove all of their belongings from their suite,” the school said in a FAQ for students.
Harvard has not yet decided if it will offer refunds for the campus housing, saying “the University is still working on the details for what will happen with student charges. Please be patient as this will take some time and the priority is getting students home safely.”
The policy is stricter than Princeton’s plea with students to stay home after spring break. In that case, the evacuation was not mandatory.
A growing number of colleges and universities are cancelling in-person classes because of the coronavirus outbreak. Others include Columbia University, Rice University, Stanford University, Hofstra University, University of California, Berkeley, and the University of Washington.
Some of those schools, though, are still holding athletic events and keeping research labs open. And most, if not all, are keeping residences open on the advice of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
“If cases of COVID-19 have not been identified among residents of on-campus community housing, students may be allowed to remain in on-campus housing,” the CDC said. “In this situation, educate housing residents on the precautions they should take to help protect themselves when there is community spread of COVID-19.”
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—Coronavirus and the flu have similar symptoms. So, how are they different?
—How coronavirus is affecting the global concert industry
—Politicians around the world are going into quarantine
—Some of the most extreme ways companies are combating coronavirus
—How Europe is adapting to the coronavirus outbreak
—What Xi Jinping’s visit to Wuhan says about China’s coronavirus recovery
—Conferences go online amid coronavirus fears—minus the hallway schmoozing
—Coronavirus may not be all bad for tech. Consider the “stay at home” stocks
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fortune--2020-03-10--10 ways to make your LinkedIn stand out to recruiters

If you’ve ever applied to a job on LinkedIn, you’ve seen that message saying X and Y company has viewed your profile. Sure, that’s the outcome you wanted when you sent in your resume, though it’s not who viewed your profile but what is in there that matters -especially if you haven’t done anything to it for a while.
According to the 2018 Jobvite Recruiter Nation Study, 77 percent of recruiters regularly use LinkedIn to find candidates, making it the most popular social media used for this purpose. So, if that job description is out of date or your photo is the one you took way back in your college dorms, you should definitely be serious about updating your profile. To ensure it stands out to recruiters, we spoke to career experts about the changes you can make:
1. Use a professional picture
The number one thing every profile needs is a good picture. “Recruiters, connections, and hiring managers all prefer LinkedIn profiles with a photo,” says Caitlin Proctor, a career expert at ZipJob, a professional resume writing and editing service. “Pick one that looks how you would look like when walking into an interview, and have someone else take it for you.” When choosing which one to use, focus on which appears the most professional and approachable.
2. Customize your headline and profile background
LinkedIn assigns both of them automatically: your latest position fills in your headline, and a blue background that looks like a constellation is set to anyone that doesn’t create their own. While this may be all you need, having a specific, eye-catching headline and background can attract recruiters to your profile.
“You want a customized headline that quickly tells someone who you are, and what you specialize in,” says Jenny Foss, a recruiter, job search strategist, and founder of career blog JobJenny. “And a lot of people don’t even realize you can customize your background, but you can and you should.” Not only does this set you apart, but it provides you the opportunity to give recruiters a further sense of who you are. “I’d make the most of it. It’s valuable real estate!”
3. Make your summary short and enticing
“It’s really important to have a well-thought-out and not oppressively long summary on LinkedIn,” says Foss. “Everyone is skimming, so they may not scroll all the way through your profile.” She recommends clearly introducing yourself in the first person with an overview of what you bring to the table.
If you’re unsure what points to mention, Diane Domeyer, executive director for The Creative Group, a creative and marketing staffing agency, explains it well: “This section, front-and-center under your headshot, is an opportunity to share your career story. If your LinkedIn profile is a digital resume, the summary is your cover letter.”
4. Keep everything up to date
It’s all well and good to set up your LinkedIn and make it look great but, if you don’t add in new information as it becomes relevant, then it’s all for naught. “Too often, people forget to keep their profile updated,” says Domeyer. To stay relevant within the platorm, “keep your profile fresh and be active on it.” Maybe you’ve had the same job for years, but did you win an award, take on an additional responsibility, completed a certificate, or learned a new skill? Add those to your profile.
5. Showcase your portfolio
Add any work you’ve done that can be easily displayed on the platform. “People tend to skip the Featured section where users can post sample work, articles and links, which is especially important if you’re a creative professional,” says Domeyer. “Take advantage of this opportunity to build your online portfolio.” Even if you were quoted in an article or used as a source, it’s worth adding the media it was used for onto your profile.
6. Improve your profile’s URL
While it may not seem like much, your URL is what recruiters use to look at your LinkedIn. Proctor recommends changing it from a mix of names and numbers to a smooth and concise link. If your name by itself is taken, or very common, add your degree, location or industry as well. This small move shows you took the extra time to clean up every aspect of your profile, not just the obvious parts.
7. Integrate keywords to become more relevant
When recruiters are searching for potential candidates, they often use keywords to find related profiles. This is a great way to increase the chances of your profile being found. “You want to integrate keywords throughout your profile,” says Proctor. “Your headline, about section, work experience, and skills section are all great places for these. Look at current job descriptions in your field to find out what keywords you should use.” These keywords will be very similar, if not the same, to those you integrate into your actual resume.
8. Explicitly say you’re job seeking
There may be other reasons why you haven’t heard back from a job application, but sometimes you just come accross as unavailable at LinkedIn. Foss suggests to take advantage of the Open Candidate feature, which allows you to alert recruiters who are using LinkedIn Premium Recruiter. “Let them know that you’re interested in being contacted, and spell out what types of roles you’d like to hear about,” she says. While recruiters at your own company are unable to see if you’ve activated the feature, any outside recruiting agencies will be able to see it. But consider this: if you don’t want to disclose job searching to your current company, best to leave this off.
9. Have (and give!) recommendations
While it may feel awkward to do so, Proctor suggests asking for recommendations to highlight on your profile and vouch for others on theirs. “Seeing what other people have to say about you is useful, like a 5-star review,” says Proctor. “What you have to say about other people is even more powerful, because it reveals what you notice and appreciate in others.” Reach out to someone you’ve worked with and ask if they want to swap public recommendations with you for LinkedIn—it’s a win-win.
10. Interact with your connections more often
Instead of spending all your free time scrolling through Instagram or Twitter, why not go on LinkedIn? “Spending a few minutes on LinkedIn a couple of times a week, commenting on people’s posts, congratulating for new jobs or work anniversaries, or sharing articles you find interesting, keeps you front and center with your network without having to leave your desk,” says Foss. After all, LinkedIn is a social media platform, so there’s no harm in treating it like such.
More must-read stories from Fortune:
—15 powerful women share the personality trait that’s key to their success
—Google and Unilever use this new initiative to help family leave implementation
—7 reasons you’re not hearing back about your job applications
—You don’t have to become a manager to grow your career
—WATCH: Can you be a leader and an introvert?
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fortune--2020-03-10--‘Most places are not prepared’: Face mask shortage could get much worse as coronavirus spreads

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Michael Einhorn’s medical supply company may run out of the masks used to protect against coronavirus in two weeks unless the Chinese manufacturer of his branded equipment resumes production this week.
“We’re having to make tough decisions every day on who gets masks and who doesn’t,” said Einhorn, the founder of New York-based Dealmed-Park Surgical, which employs almost 100 people. “Do masks go to the suburban hospital or the 911 responders? It’s a huge responsibility, and we know we’re going to make some mistakes.”
Einhorn’s dilemma is playing out on a global stage. With the deadly virus now present in 100 countries, companies are unable to match demand for the masks needed by health workers. That’s led governments to jockey for supplies, including the U.S., which is stockpiling, and Germany and South Korea, which banned exports of masks altogether.
Public health officials are warning that restrictive trade measures tied to medical supplies could worsen the shortfall and risk making poorer nations more vulnerable to the coronavirus’ spread. In some countries, including Japan and Germany, doctors are being told to reuse the single mask they get daily because of a lack of supply.
Not prepared
“Most places are not prepared, so you now have a cascade of countries putting these export bans in place,” said Stephen Morrison, director of the Global Health Policy Center at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. “It’s not a long-term solution. Everyone throwing up export bans isn’t going to solve the problem of how you will get the products in time to serve these acute needs.”
Peter Navarro, a hawkish trade adviser to President Donald Trump, is also pushing the U.S. to enact an export ban on certain medical supplies like face masks and compel pharmaceutical companies to manufacture drugs domestically.
Manufacturers need to boost production of masks by another 40% to meet demand, said Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, the World Health Organization’s director general. While the WHO has shipped supplies to 47 countries including Iran, Cambodia and Uganda, shortages will hit soon, especially of the N95 masks that block out 95% of airborne particulates to combat the current virus.
“Industry and governments must act quickly to boost supply, ease export restrictions and put measures in place to stop speculation and hoarding,” Tedros said in a statement March 3. “We can’t stop COVID-19 without protecting health workers first,” he said, referring to the illness caused by the virus.
Despite Tedros’ appeal, South Korea, Germany and Russia announced export bans of masks and other protective gear days after. They join others nation or territories including India, Taiwan, Thailand, and Kazakhstan that earlier put export bans in place. The novel coronavirus has now spread to more than 113,000 cases globally and killed over 3,900 people.
Weakest link
Public health experts are concerned that should more developed countries ban exports of masks and protective gear, poorer nations could be at risk of widening outbreaks, particularly among medical workers.
“It will paralyze and freeze up the market,” said Morrison of CSIS. “The accumulated impact of these measures is to create paralysis — one big logjam.”
Export bans and other measures adopted by developed countries risk deepening global divisions over the virus, said Lawrence Gostin, director of the O’Neill Institute for National and Global Health Law at Georgetown University in Washington, D.C.
“It would entirely unravel global cooperation if Covid-19 turned into a major killer, and we see hundreds of thousands deaths in lower income countries with relatively few deaths in the global north,” said Gostin, who is also the director of the WHO’s Collaborating Center on Public Health Law & Human Rights.
China reliance
Before the epidemic, China produced about half of the world’s output of masks with daily production of about 20 million units, according to state media Xinhua. Factories have since boosted production more than five-fold and are enlisting carmakers to manufacture them. That’s still not enough.
In the U.S., increased efforts by mask makers 3M Co. and DuPont De Nemours Inc. are also falling short of demand. DuPont, which makes masks and protective body suits worn by first responders, said it’s increased production by more than three times its usual global capacity. 3M, the biggest American manufacturer of N95 respirators, has increased production since the outbreak in China.
“We’ve added staff, we’ve added overtime, we’ve added technology, we’ve been increasing manufacturing lines,” said 3M spokeswoman Jennifer Ehrlich. “We expect this demand for respirators and other supplies to continue to outpace supply for the foreseeable future.”
The dependence on China and a few other countries for masks has some calling for a rethink of supply chains. The World Medical Association, which represents physicians, wants governments to establish factories in major markets like the European Union and the U.S. to ensure adequate supply of critical drugs, vaccines and other medical necessities.
The U.S only has about 1% of the 3.5 billion masks it needs to combat a serious outbreak, Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar has said. The country plans to buy 500 million surgical masks and N95 respirators for the national stockpile.
Einhorn of Dealmed thinks the shortage isn’t likely to let up until the summer. The crisis may finally convince Americans to pay more for masks made in the U.S., he said. Dealmed is seeking bids for domestically-produced equipment.
“The world shouldn’t be relying on one country for health care products,” Einhorn said. “We absolutely need to look at the supply chain.”
More must-read stories from Fortune:
—How coronavirus is affecting the global concert industry
—Coronavirus is mutating: Chinese scientists find second strain
—Some of the most extreme ways companies are combating coronavirus
—How Europe is adapting to the coronavirus outbreak
—China’s box office was supposed to surpass North America’s this year.
—Growing coronavirus threat weighs on Apple
—Nearly half of American travelers are reconsidering their international trips due to coronavirus
Subscribe to Fortune’s Outbreak newsletter for a daily roundup of stories on the coronavirus and its impact on global business.


fortune--2020-03-10--How will coronavirus impact the economy? Here are 5 early-warning indicators

While the official data releases on employment, inflation and gross domestic product will eventually show the effect of the coronavirus on economic activity, they will be behind the curve in deciphering how large the effect is on American consumers.
Stock and bond markets have priced in expectations of an economic blow from the virus. The S&P 500 on Monday recorded the worst day on Wall Street since the financial crisis, while Treasury yields plummeted, crude plunged and credit markets buckled.
But for most Americans, the pain is just beginning. Here are five areas where a slowdown from U.S. consumers cutting back may show up first. By and large, indications are that consumption — the biggest part of the U.S. economy—has so far slowed only slightly.
1. Hotels
Some Americans are avoiding travel because of concerns of being exposed to the virus on flights, trains or at hotels. Organizers of South by Southwest canceled this year’s arts, music and technology festival in Austin, Texas, which last year drew about 13,000 people from 41 countries. Google scrapped a major developer conference and the International Monetary Fund and World Bank switched the format of their spring summit to online.
Occupancy at U.S. hotels fell 1.7% to 64.1% in the week ended Feb. 29, an indication that coronavirus is discouraging travel especially from abroad, according to data tracker STR.
International airport markets like Chicago, New York and San Francisco reported declines, while hotels in markets that mostly rely on domestic travelers like Orlando held up somewhat better, according to the firm’s weekly report. Seattle, near the epicenter of the outbreak in the U.S., saw an increase for the week.
2. Retail sales
Redbook Research’s weekly report on year-over-year comparable store sales gives an insight on whether consumers are still shopping.
U.S. comparable sales rose 6% in the first week of March from a year earlier, according to a Johnson Redbook report Tuesday that also noted shoppers are stockpiling emergency supplies and buying in bulk as virus concerns grow.
Discounter sales have remained strong, according to Bloomberg Intelligence analysts Poonam Goyal and Abigail Gimartin, and they are expected to rise in March with warmer weather. There’s no obvious sign of people avoiding crowded stores, yet, because of concerns about the virus.
3. Box office
Americans also seem to be avoiding movie theaters as they worry about public gatherings. Last weekend, Disney’s animated feature Onward opened to a disappointing $39.1 million in sales, the third-worst opening for a Pixar film ever.
Entertainment sales are volatile and driven by what’s showing, so it can be hard to pinpoint changes related to a health scare. For the weekend, Comscore says the receipts from top 10 movies fell by 53.5% from a year earlier, when “Captain Marvel” opened to a huge $153.4 million take in North America.
4. Broadway tickets
Similarly, Broadway’s box office is a measure of whether audiences are showing up to the theater, typically drawing older customers compared with movie theaters. New York has had a cluster of coronavirus cases, which might discourage people from joining big crowds.
In the week ended March 8, Broadway attendance was down 6.5% from a year earlier, according to the Broadway League. Still, popular shows like Hamilton operated at full capacity.
The Broadway League said in a statement that shows are continuing. “We have significantly increased the frequency of cleaning and disinfecting in all public and backstage areas beyond the standard daily schedule, and we have added alcohol-based sanitizer dispensers for public use in the lobby of every theatre,” it said.
5. Consumer comfort
Consumers’ confidence is reported weekly in the Bloomberg Consumer Comfort index, which has been declining since late January, though remains much higher than during the 2007-09 recession. Consumer spending is responsible for about 70% of gross domestic product and has held up as other areas, such as business spending, have weakened.
Confidence among Americans slid to a 10-week low as views of the buying climate dimmed amid mounting virus fears, the latest report shows. The comfort reading for personal finances showed improvement despite the rout in U.S. stocks.
More must-read stories from Fortune:
—How coronavirus is affecting the global concert industry
—Coronavirus is mutating: Chinese scientists find second strain
—Some of the most extreme ways companies are combating coronavirus
—How Europe is adapting to the coronavirus outbreak
—China’s box office was supposed to surpass North America’s this year.
—Growing coronavirus threat weighs on Apple
—Nearly half of American travelers are reconsidering their international trips due to coronavirus
Subscribe to Fortune’s Outbreak newsletter for a daily roundup of stories on the coronavirus outbreak and its impact on global business.