fortune--2020-03-09--Love (and shopping) in the age of coronavirus: How Europe is adapting to the outbreak

In 14th century Italy, a group of ten young friends flee plague-stricken Florence to ride out the epidemic in a villa in the countryside. That’s where things get interesting. They entertain each other in the telling of tales that are, by turns, romantic, tragic and humorous, a calming distraction while the poor city-dwellers they leave behind succumb to disease and death.
That’s the basic plot of Giovanni Boccaccio’s classic, The Decameron.
In a modern twist, just as the coronavirus started sweeping across northern Italy last month, leaving city and town in a quarantined limbo, a group of young Italians started posting to Facebook all 100 tales from The Decameron back-to-back. “We hope that this long marathon can be of help to all those who find themselves in the same situation these days,” the organizers explained in the Italian daily, La Repubblica.
Over the weekend, Italy dramatically expanded its quarantine area, putting roughly one-quarter of its population in lockdown, effectively walling off the economic hubs of Milan and Turin, the cultural gem that is Venice, and the culinary mecca of Parma from the rest of the country, and the world.
On Monday, health officials across Europe sounded their own alarms, reporting spikes in coronavirus infections, and in the death toll. In Germany and France, the number of cases topped 1,000, leaving the French to ban all events in which the number of participants exceeds 1,000.
In Spain, reported infections nearly doubled in a 24-hour span to nearly 1,000. The worst hit communities are in Madrid and Vitoria-Gasteiz, the capital of Basque country. The Basque government has closed all schools and universities for 15 days to limit the spread of an outbreak there.
In Britain, where the number of cases trail those on the continent, Prime Minister Boris Johnson met on Monday with health and public safety officials to determine whether the country should adopt more stringent policies to prevent the spread of viral infections. Nothing big was agreed upon in the meetings, but across the Irish Sea, Dublin city officials on Monday canceled the Saint Patrick’s Day parade, scheduled for next week.
Here’s how Europe is trying to contain the infection rate, and to keep its aging population out of harm’s way.
No weddings in Italy
Most eyes are on Italy as the cases there have topped 7,000 and the number of deaths, at 366, are the most in Europe. Last week, the Italian government closed all schools across the country for a two-week period, with a very likely extension into early April.
Last week we joked about how many Italian babies would be born this November… now I'm wondering how many relationships will survive everyone's working from home with no schools to take the kids off their hands — jennifer mills (@millsjenjen) March 4, 2020
In Italy’s so-called zone rosse—the “red zone” infection areas of the Lombardy region plus 14 neighboring provinces—tough measures on travel, congregating in public and limiting operating hours of bars and restaurants are in place. Museums are closed, and, until April 3, there’s a ban on ceremonies both civil (including weddings and funerals) and religious (including public Masses and liturgical celebrations).
The idea is to limit numbers in public, indoor spaces to small groups—no small feat in big cities. In Milan, security guards insist customers enter supermarkets at intervals, in clusters of no more than three or four people. That means customers are left waiting outside until given the all-clear to approach the entrance and commence shopping. The strict rules have taken some adjustment for Italians, a nation not known for orderly queuing.
In the Italian Alps, ski resorts now follow strict occupancy rules for ferrying skiers and snowboarders up the mountain. At Cortina d’Ampezzo last week, site of the 2026 Winter Games, no more than three people were permitted to enter an 8-person funivia cable car, for example. The waiting time was no sweat though as the mountain, usually teeming with Russian, British and German tourists at this time of year, was the quietest any locals could remember.
Coronavirus scares kept the pistes of Cortina d’Ampezzo virtually empty last week, in what’s typically “high season” for tourists. Original Photography: Bernhard Warner
The one-meter rule
For those intrepid diners who venture out in the red zones, they must be seated at tables spaced strategically apart, at least one-meter from the nearest groups of diners at other tables. Execution of the one-meter rule has become the subject of ongoing conversation in public. Typically, a restaurant or bar will allow customers to sit at alternate tables—one occupied, the adjacent one purposely unoccupied, and so on. Fail to comply, and the manager get hits with a 206 euro ($235) fine.
Bars that don’t have enough room have opted to close. Others have taken to inventive ways to keep clients at bay.
Games without fans
In soccer-mad Italy, Sunday means game day. The country’s top professional league, Serie A, could return to the pitch over the weekend on one condition: the stadiums had to be closed to fans. It made for eerily quiet matches, and plenty of off-the-pitch protests about the “beautiful game” in crisis.
Pope Francis did his part too to keep the throngs of faithful somewhat protected from coronavirus. On Sunday, he opted to live-stream his weekly Angelus blessing from a library inside the Vatican Walls. Later, he went to his customary perch at the window overlooking Saint Peter’s square to bless those who remained.
Two days prior, the Vatican reported its first case of coronavirus inside the tiny city-state.
With additional reporting by Katherine Dunne in London and Ian Mount in Madrid.
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fortune--2020-03-09--Top coronavirus doctor: Patients with high blood pressure at greater risk of dying

Trump confidants in quarantine as US grapples with virus

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Patients with hypertension appear to be at a higher risk of dying from the coronavirus, said a top Chinese intensive care doctor who’s been treating critically ill patients since mid-January.
While there’s been no published research yet explaining why, Chinese doctors working in Wuhan, the central Chinese city where the virus first emerged, have noticed that infected patients with that underlying illness are more likely to slip into severe distress and die.
Of a group of 170 patients who died in January in Wuhan—the first wave of casualties caused by a pathogen that’s now raced around the world—nearly half had hypertension.
“That’s a very high ratio,” said Du Bin, director of the intensive care unit at Peking Union Medical College Hospital, in an interview with Bloomberg over the phone from Wuhan. He was among a team of top doctors sent to the devastated city two months ago to help treat patients there.
“From what I was told by other doctors and the data I can see myself, among all the underlying diseases, hypertension is a key dangerous factor,” said Du, one of the most respected critical care experts in China. “Though there is no research published on that yet, we believe hypertension could be an important factor in causing patients to deteriorate, leading to a bad prognosis.”
As the outbreak picks up speed in Europe and the U.S., plunging countries like Italy into crisis, doctors are struggling to treat the highly-infectious pathogen that’s infected over 108,000 people globally in just three months.
Understanding the course of the disease and identifying individuals at greatest risk are critical for optimizing care for a global contagion that’s killed more than 3,700 people since emerging in China in December.
Read: Progression from moderate to severe coronavirus symptoms can occur ‘very, very quickly’
Answers may lie in studying the large pool of patients in China, where more than 15,000 remain hospitalized although new infections have slowed dramatically. The disease turns critical in 6% of patients and deterioration can happen very quickly.
“We’ll keep an eye on old people and those with high blood pressure. They are the key focus,” said Du.
Besides the hypertension factor, Du’s other insights into treating the disease are:
Move aggressively to ventilate
Du said that doctors should not hesitate to escalate measures for patients facing respiratory distress, as organ failure can set in quickly after. That means doctors should intervene aggressively with invasive ventilation measures—inserting a tube into a patient’s throat or cutting the throat open to create an airway—when low blood oxygen levels can’t be improved by less invasive measures.
Almost half of the patients who require invasive mechanical ventilation end up dying, but most of those who recover are those who were put on invasive ventilation early, said Du.
“Patients need to use invasive ventilation as early as possible, there’s no point of doing it late,” he said.
Respiratory therapists—doctors that specialize in ventilation and oxygen treatment—are becoming all the more important in treating patients critically ill with Covid-19 as they are more knowledgeable and can fine-tune ventilators to suit patient conditions.
No “magic bullets” in drugs
There is growing anticipation over drugs being developed to treat the virus, with investors adding billions to the market value of pharmaceutical companies testing treatments now. But Du said drugs alone cannot save patients, especially those in severe condition.
The experience of SARS, the epidemic 17 years ago that sickened almost 8,000 people, showed that most patients can be cured without a specific anti-viral drug, said Du. And the abundance of antibiotics has not prevented deaths by bacterial infections, he added.
“When there’s a virus infection, we hope there’s a drug that can kill the virus and change the clinical outcome. But there’s no magic bullet.”
Instead, teamwork among specialists and nurses in intensive care units can be more crucial in keeping patients alive, he said. “An ICU doctor should work like a conductor in an orchestra to provide life-sustaining treatment while taking into consideration different specialist views,” he said.
Threat of re-infection
Reports that people who have recovered and been discharged from hospital later test positive again—and even die from the disease—have ignited fears that the virus can somehow re-emerge.
Du said that patients becoming re-infected again within days of leaving the hospital makes no sense “theoretically” as the anti-bodies in their bloodstream generated from fighting the disease do not disappear so quickly, although they don’t necessarily stay forever.
“What we need to look at in terms of those who tested positive again is concerns over the authenticity of their negative results,” he said. For example, samples taken from different areas of the same patient could test differently depending on where the virus resides.
Test kits made by different manufacturers could also have inconsistencies that impact test results, he said.
Mild impact on pregnant women, children
Despite their seeming physical vulnerability, pregnant women and children do not seem to be affected by the coronavirus in a serious manner, Du said. This is in contrast to other viruses like influenza.
“From what we known, infected pregnant women do not get into a serious situation with the coronavirus,” Du said. “With influenza, pregnancy is a high risk factor that can cause severe symptoms and lead to bad outcomes, but not this time.”
Children infected with the coronavirus also seem to experience only mild symptoms, said Du. He has not seen any child infections deteriorate to a state which requires intensive care.
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fortune--2020-03-09--Politics with your coffee? These cafés are taking sides

Manny’s café in San Francisco has hosted talks by 17 Democratic presidential candidates, including Kamala Harris and Pete Buttigieg, and a 16-hour reading of the Mueller Report. At Guns & Grounds in Bentonville, Ark., baristas pour Black Rifle Coffee—praised by Sean Hannity and Donald Trump Jr.—when they aren’t busy selling Bushmaster AR-15s and bullets.
These two spots and others around the U.S. have little in common except coffee-loving customers and a penchant for unapologetically partisan advocacy. For centuries, cafés in the U.S. and abroad have been gathering spots for political activists who engage in arguments that can get as heated as the caffeinated drinks poured in their cups.
At the new batch of java spots percolating around the country, however, patrons whose political opinions differ from those of the morning regulars should probably stick to talking about the weather to avoid a confrontation. Reflecting America’s increasing polarization, these cafés are either blue or red, even though the coffee poured is always black.
“I’ve tried to create a physical place where you can become a better informed and more involved citizen,” says Manny’s owner Manny Yekutiel. “Many people want to become civically engaged but don’t know where to go to start. Manny’s aims to be that place.” Thus the large “Election Countdown” LED sign above the café, which occupies a busy corner in San Francisco’s Mission District. The sign displays the number of days, hours, minutes, and seconds before the November election.
Former Democratic presidential candidate Marianne Williamson speaks to a crowd at Manny’s in August 2019. Photo courtesy of Manny’s.
There is never an “elephant [Republican] in the room” on Manny’s event-room stage, where only Democrats give talks. Yekutiel acknowledges it’s a “partisan space because San Francisco is a partisan city”—nine percent of San Franciscans voted for Trump—but adds that everyone is welcome. Politically passionate café owners like him must walk a tightrope between supporting certain candidates and causes and the need to not alienate potential customers.
Yekutiel, 30, the son of an Afghan immigrant, was an Obama White House intern who worked for the 2012 Obama and 2016 Clinton campaigns before opening the café. His Democratic Party connections helped bring in the first few candidates; word of mouth did the rest. “I see this space as a campaign except that we’ll keep going from election to election,” he says.
Capacity crowds of up to 200 stand or sink into Manny’s coveted couches and futons at many events. An astounding 550 events—more than one a day—have drawn a total of more than 30,000 people since the café opened on Election Night 2018. They come for the candidate talks, debate watch parties, and author readings (political books are sold along with the mostly vegetarian menu items).
Manny’s would never make it in northwestern Arkansas, where Guns & Grounds has been a favorite of Second Amendment devotees since 2017. A Facebook post by the Bentonville shop reads: “Is your young one ready for the next step up in their firearm collection? We have a Crickett 22lr in the shop! Perfect for a range day with the children!” The February 2020 shop promotion was a raffle for a handgun with all “bazooka” (large) beverage purchasers eligible to win.
Inside Guns & Grounds in Arkansas, a sign reads, “Making Coffee Great Again.”
Another shop that peddles pistols while pouring Americanos is the Black Rifle Coffee Shop in Orem, Utah, in a county where Hillary Clinton took only 14% of the vote. The coffee counter, which opened in 2018, is in the bull’s-eye center of the Ready Gunner firearms shop. “We have a lot of people come in for everyday carry handguns,” says store/café manager Casey Currey. Others hit the adjacent shooting range. If the coffee doesn’t wake you up, the gunfire will.
Visitors have included gun enthusiast Donald Trump Jr., and Black Rifle Coffee’s VP of marketing, Molly Schweickert, led Cambridge Analytica’s controversial digital marketing operation for the Trump campaign. Nonetheless, says Currey, “politics rarely comes up in the store.”
No guns are sold at the Trumped Store & Coffee Shop in Show Low, Ariz., where a coffee-counter sign reads “Making Coffee Great Again.” But it sells everything from lattes and brownies to Trump T-shirts, talking pens, teddy bears, sweatpants, and shot glasses. Sales have doubled each year, says co-owner Steven Slaton, who believes it’s America’s only store to exclusively carry Trump-themed merchandise.
When Slaton ran the local Trump campaign out of the storefront in 2016, he couldn’t keep Trump items in stock, so he found local suppliers to keep pace with the demand. After the campaign ended, he just kept selling the “unofficial” merchandise, eventually adding coffee and food.
Merchandise for sale at Guns & Grounds.
The shop has been a lightning rod in the small mountain town even though most residents are white, low-income Republicans who tend to favor Trump. Threatening calls have come in, peaceful protests held, and the shop was vandalized. “We call the police just to harass the protesters,” says Slaton, “and after the break-in, we installed nine cameras.” Far from backing down, the store will host a Second Amendment rally on Memorial Day weekend featuring local Trump-supporting politicians.
The MAGA hats that sell like hotcakes at the Trumped Store are rarely seen inside any of the nine Blue State Coffee locations in New England. Since the first shop (slogan: “Beans to an End”) opened in 2004, enough Fair Trade organic coffee and locally sourced salads have been sold that Blue State has donated more than $1 million to nonprofits including the progressive groups ActBlue and People for the American Way.
On the opposite coast, Resistencia Coffee (slogan: “Coffee for the People”) opened in June 2018 in Seattle’s South Park neighborhood. “It’s a neighborhood of immigrants who have a history of resistance, so combined with the resistance to Trump, the name [‘Resistance’ in English] was a good fit,” says Coté Soerens, the Chilean immigrant who founded the shop. Voter registration drives are hosted there.
“So much of civic life has eroded and moved online, which is a terrible forum for dialogue,” says Soerens. “So we created a space for people to talk face-to-face. People of all kinds feel like it’s their space now. Even Trump supporters come in. We try to stay above the fray.”
Most coffee shops do stay above the fray—even the “partisan” shops—or at least they try. Says Michael Grant, owner of the Black Cow Coffee shops in Croton and Pleasantville, N.Y.: “On Postcard Tuesdays, when customers write to politicians at the center table in Croton, the postcards are addressed to both Democrats and Republicans. We invite everyone to get involved, Trumpers and never-Trumpers alike. But we discourage the bigger state and federal candidates from soliciting votes at the shops because they usually have entourages and can get pretty obnoxious.”
Maybe they should stick to decaf.
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fortune--2020-03-09--The top 10 questions on diversity to ask during the hiring process

This is the web version of raceAhead, Fortune’s daily newsletter on race, culture, and inclusive leadership. To get it delivered daily to your inbox, sign up here.
We are all diversity professionals now. This, as it turns out, is a new competitive advantage.
Recent analysis from the job and recruiting site Glassdoor shows that employees in the U.S. and the U.K. are increasingly pessimistic about the state of diversity at their firms. Research into employee reviews from 2018, the most recent numbers available, found that some 32% of employees based in the U.S. spoke negatively about diversity at their companies, the largest number since 2008.
Enter the diversity and inclusion hiring boom.
By mid-2019, Glassdoor reported a 30% increase in diversity and inclusion job openings in the U.S., a significant bump in an already crowded field. Employee skepticism is driving the market. “Overall, the healthy growth signals that employers are taking a serious look at investing in diversity and inclusion efforts,” writes Daniel Zhao, Glassdoor senior economist and data scientist.
That insight turned into a prediction in Glassdoor’s Job & Hiring Trends for 2020 report. “In 2020 and beyond, as companies continue to usher in a new era of hiring action-oriented diversity and inclusion teams, we expect to see a wave of hiring for leaders and managers that will help carry forward the mission of building a more diverse and inclusive workforce,” wrote Glassdoor chief economist Andrew Chamberlain in the report.
Erin Thomas, PhD, is part of that wave. The inclusion expert was tapped last December to be the first-ever global head of diversity, inclusion, and belonging for Upwork, the global freelancing platform.
The research scientist and self-described pragmatist recently tweeted some excellent advice for anyone seeking or being recruited for a job in the field—or even reassessing where they’re working now. Now is the time to make sure you understand where any organization that’s caught your eye actually is in their diversity, inclusion, and equity (DEI) journey. “If you’re on the market,” she says, “be choosy.”
With her permission, we’ve recreated her top 10 questions to ask during the hiring process below, in her words.
***
1. “Why me?”’
I love asking this during third interviews. It gives you instant insight into how an organization has branded you, gives you a chance to clear up any misconceptions they have about you, and can alert you to a big potential problem: Is it really about me, or will I be a token? At best, it turns interviewers into your hype team.
2. “What have you done to prepare for this role?”
While this is mostly relevant to positions that are new to the organization, it will tell you a lot about how they’re thinking about it. Listen for actions they’ve taken to prepare key stakeholders to work with the person in this role; and specifically for how they are making the case for culture change. If you get blank stares in response to this question, they ain’t ready.
3. “Why now?”
This relates to question #2. Listen for thoughtfulness regarding where the organization’s attention is. What problem is this new role really designed to solve? Are there red flags, like another major initiative that’s in the works? Are they preparing to go public? Listen for any priority that may compete with the massive change in the management process that you need to lead.
4. “What’s the goal?”
Try to uncover a clear point of view regarding what success looks like. Are they focused on equality? Equity? Is everyone using the same terms the same way? What other fundamentals—like the distinct value proposition or benchmarks—are top of mind? Think about how these may influence your decision. You’re looking for (at the least) the potential to align their goals with your own personal ones.
5. “How do you define diversity?”
The beauty and complexity of diversity is that it can literally mean anything. Are they focused on social diversity, diversity of thought, introverts/extroverts, work styles—everybody, everywhere? This matters to the extent that you’re a DEI purist.
6. “Who ‘counts’?”
This is an extension of question #5. This is the time to gauge who’s considered as a “marginalized” demographic and who is currently being counted. Are they thinking along gender and race? What additional data will you need to collect? What might prevent you from collecting it? This is the time to assess any hurdles ahead to doing your best work.
7. “What’s the salary?”
You shouldn’t have to ask this question but do get clear on this early on. (And don’t give your current salary—just your compensation expectations.) Do your homework and know your worth. You can do justice work and be paid well for it.
8. “What’s my budget?”
This needs to be discussed before you accept an offer. If the company wants someone who will change the world, and your budget is less than four times your salary, run—don’t walk.
9. “What’s my headcount?”
This builds on question #8. Do you have an adequate team? Are you authorized for new hires if you need them? Are they earmarked in the annual workforce plan? Again, you need to know what you’re working with before you sign on the dotted line.
10. “What’s the growth plan for this role?”
So, you’re sold on the current role. Great! Is there a place for you to grow in the organization? Listen for the organization’s vision for this role or your department over the next two to three years, the typical change management cycle. If you’ve got a fire in your belly, chances are you’ll be looking to grow into what’s next. Can they grow with you?
***
Thomas ends by quoting Maya Angelou. “When someone shows you who they are, believe them,” she says. These questions are designed to help the organizations that are courting you better show themselves.
“I hope they help you consider what matters most to you as you embark on a new venture or examine your current situation,” she says. “Go in eyes wide open and remember: You must be in a good place to do good for others. You got this.”
Ellen McGirt
@ellmcgirt
Ellen.McGirt@fortune.com
On Point
True diversity initiatives suffer when you redefine diversity Marta Geletkanycz, associate professor of strategic management at Boston College, warns that “watering down” the meaning of the term will impede your progress. A diversity of “knowledge, skills, and experience,” may feel more comfortable, but it’s not the kind of diversity that the “business case” is built on, she says. "We've redefined diversity, and when we redefine diversity to include anything, well then, this is what's contributing to racial, ethnic gender diversity slowing down," she tells CNN.
CNN
We have broken Bong Joon Ho That was just one takeaway from this delightful conversation between Bong and indie director Kelly Reichardt (Wendy and Lucy, Old Joy, Certain Women, First Cow), whom Bong has described as his hero. The Oscar phenom is back in South Korea and wants to get on with his post-Parasite life, but he’s just bushed. “Now that I finally have time, I’m trying to get back on it, but I’m so exhausted, mentally and physically,” Bong says. “I’m just a shell of a human.” But they quickly get deep into each other’s movies and the creative process, from multi-tasking to the casting of actual cows. “Whenever I watch your films, I always want to visit Oregon, but I’ve never been able to. I’m curious what that place means to you in your body of work,” asks Bong. “Please come visit! We’ll show you everything!” says Reichart. Awww.
The Atlantic
Andrew Toth—Getty Images
Zaya Wade hits the red carpet The resplendent daughter of Dwyane Wade and Gabrielle Union made her red carpet debut at the 2020 Truth Awards together on Saturday, the first such appearance since her father revealed that Zaya was a transgender girl earlier this year. The three wore coordinated outfits (in the colors of the genderqueer flag) that must be seen to be appreciated. "Everyone allow her to re-introduce herself her name is Zaya Wade!" Dwyane wrote on Instagram. Last night was Zaya's first red carpet and we couldn't have been prouder of how she handled the questions that were asked of her. She has emerged as one of the young faces and voices for the LGBTQ+ community. #truthawards
E Online
On Background
Spas can be nightmares for transgender and non-conforming people Arabelle Sicardi raises an issue that many of us may not have considered: The luxurious relaxation of spas and spa culture around the world are emotional mazes for people who are unable or unwilling to choose a gender-identified robe, locker room, or soaking pool. The unwritten rules: “If your gender identity is not what you were assigned at birth, if you have gone through all gender-confirming surgeries to align your gender and sex and it is visible, if your anatomy doesn’t align with expectations of gender norms—you’re essentially not allowed in, unless you optionally choose to misgender yourself.” The further away from femme, Sicardi moves, the more difficult the spa trips becomes. “[I]t’s also a reminder of the fact a place that was once a place of comfort is also (and has always been when I wasn’t thinking about it) a place of restrictions and sometimes violence.”
Allure
We were here first New York Magazine has dug deep into the archives of 1969 and republished a devastating read by the legendary Pete Hamill on the plight of the people formerly known as the working class: The white lower middle class, “the ethnics, the blue collar types,” who have been pushed to the point of desperation. Come for the sepia-toned language of race and class, stay for the realization that what has been informing hate speech of the modern era is nothing new.
New York Magazine
What does a scientist look like? If you were a child 50 years ago, if you were asked to draw a scientist, you would have most likely sketched a man, probably in a lab coat. But according to a social experiment conducted since the 1960s, today’s kids are more likely than ever before to portray a woman when asked to draw a scientist. Some 28% of children in recent studies drew women scientists, compared to just 1% in the studies conducted before 1980. Doesn’t sound like much progress? Ask your team to draw their idea of “a leader.” Almost all, men and women alike, will draw a man. Oh yes, they will.
Fortune
Tamara El-Waylly produces raceAhead and manages the op-ed program.
Quote
"It is not surprising that a new disease leads to public fear, stigma, and the scapegoating of certain kinds of people because we tend to understand these events through our past disease rhetoric, which is rooted in fear, stigma, scapegoating. Some of the U.S.' first immigration laws were targeting Chinese immigrants because they were seen as racial, cultural, and biological threats, for example the Chinese Exclusion Act. Perceived biological threat is tied to a perceived cultural threat."
—Josue David Cisneros, professor at University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, in remarks to Business Insider on why the rise of an infectious disease triggers xenophobia and racism.


fortune--2020-03-09--Led Zeppelin prevails in ‘Stairway to Heaven’ plagiarism case

Led Zeppelin won’t face a second trial over allegations the group stole part of its 1971 classic “Stairway to Heaven” from an obscure instrumental track by a 1960s California band.
In a rare so-called en banc decision Monday, 11 judges of the federal court of appeals in San Francisco let stand a 2016 jury verdict in favor of Led Zeppelin. A smaller panel of the same appeals court had previously thrown out the verdict after finding jurors had received faulty instructions from the trial judge.
The decision will come as a relief to the music industry, which has almost universally backed Led Zeppelin against claims that the opening chords of “Stairway to Heaven” were based on the 1968 song “Taurus” by the band Spirit. Recording companies and songwriters feared the reversal of the jury verdict would lead to a flood of new copyright infringement lawsuits based on the use of common musical elements.
The court rejected as “garden variety” the argument by the estate of late Spirit guitarist Randy “California” Wolfe, which brought the lawsuit in 2014, that the songs were similar based on the combination of five common musical elements.
“Semantics do not characterize legal arguments — substance does,” Circuit Judge M. Margaret McKeown wrote for the majority. She said the plaintiffs failed to show how the common elements they cited formed a selection and arrangement worthy of copyright protection.
‘Random similarities’
“These disparate categories of unprotectable elements are just ‘random similarities scattered throughout [the relevant portions of] the works,’” the judge wrote, quoting in part from another ruling. “Labeling them a ‘combination’ of unprotectable elements does not convert the argument into a selection and arrangement case.”
Francis Malofiy, the Philadelphia-area lawyer who filed the lawsuit, said in a telephone interview he would appeal the ruling, possibly to the U.S. Supreme Court. “I’m disappointed,” he said. “It’s a victory for the music industry against creators.”
The en banc decision also upheld rulings by the trial judge and a three-judge appellate panel that, under the law at the time, the copyright to “Taurus” only pertained to the sheet music and not to the actual recording.
Those rulings meant the jurors only heard a bare-bones version based on the sheet music for the track, not the album version. Wolfe’s estate argued that changes to U.S. copyright law in the 1970s extending protection to recordings should have applied in the case and jurors could not accurately gauge the similarities between “Taurus” and “Stairway” without hearing the version Led Zeppelin would have encountered.
Wolfe’s trust contended at trial that Led Zeppelin would have heard Spirit play “Taurus” during occasions when the bands played together, including at Led Zeppelin’s first U.S. show in Denver in 1968 and at later rock festivals. Led Zeppelin founder and lead guitarist Jimmy Page testified that he only became aware of “Taurus” in recent years after his son-in-law alerted him to comparisons of the songs posted on the Internet.
Jury verdict
The jury in Los Angeles deliberated for one day in June 2016 before rejecting the claims that “Stairway” was a ripoff of “Taurus.” The jurors unanimously agreed Led Zeppelin didn’t use anything that was unique and original in Wolfe’s composition.
Federal appeals courts typically only agree to hear cases en banc when they determine important legal issues are at stake. The previous decision ordering a new trial had prompted an outcry by record labels and a number of songwriters.
They said a finding that the longer, more complex “Stairway” copied “Taurus” would expand copyright protection to commonplace musical elements like sequences or scales. These are typically considered the basic building blocks of compositions but not original works themselves. A music expert testified for Led Zeppelin at trial that the chords at issue had been used by musicians for hundreds of years.
The industry feared a ruling in favor of the plaintiffs would influence judges in other cases and invite a tide of new lawsuits.
A federal judge in New York put a copyright lawsuit accusing Ed Sheeran of stealing from Marvin Gaye’s “Let’s Get It On” on hold until the San Francisco appellate court had decided if the sound recording of “Taurus” was admissible evidence in the Led Zeppelin case.
The case is Skidmore v. Led Zeppelin, 16-56057, U.S. Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit (San Francisco).
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fortune--2020-03-09--Why Warren dropping out shouldn’t cause women to give up hope

Last week, Sen. Elizabeth Warren suspended her campaign for president, essentially eliminating the chances that this cycle would produce America’s first female commander-in-chief. My social media feed reflected collective disappointment and sadness. Even if Warren wasn’t your desired candidate, it never felt like she, Kamala Harris, Amy Klobuchar, or any other female candidate got a truly fair shot.
If you’re outraged that we have two white, straight septuagenarians competing for the Democratic nomination, you should be. If you’re outraged that Donald Trump was elected in spite of decades of sexist behavior and comments, you should be.
But you should also be proud. Not only did Warren make an impression on little girls everywhere about dreaming big and fighting on, her candidacy sent a strong message to boys too. Normalizing women as viable presidential candidates is important—even if we are not yet content with the outcome.
That’s why instead of feeling discouraged, I feel hope. For more women to run for president in the future thanks to the paths cleared by Warren and Clinton, but also for all women seeking leadership, board seats, and funding. Here are three reasons to feel hope versus despair as a female leader this week:
Women are supporting women
In 2018, a record number of women ran for the U.S. House and Senate. We witnessed the election of the first Native American and Muslim women to Congress. And 37% of the women serving in Congress are women of color.
In my home state of Massachusetts, Warren is just one of many women blazing the trail for the next generation on the national stage, with Ayanna Pressley and Maura Healey following her lead. Both women joined Warren frequently on the campaign trail, demonstrating a sisterhood in power that simply didn’t exist a decade ago.
But the female camaraderie is evident beyond the campaign trail. It’s noticeable in boardrooms too. When I first started at HubSpot, we had one woman on our board. Now, we are proud to have three women. The data shows we aren’t alone: After years of hovering around 16%, women now represent 27% of the S&P 500 board seats. I watch with great admiration as the women on our board advocate for, recommend, and cite amazing women in their networks for leadership roles.
The despair of last election cycle was followed by massive increases in the number of women running for office, and many of them are now using their offices, positions, and political resources to create space for even more women in power. I suspect we’ll see the same trend in the world of business, and that a powerful network effect will emerge as a result.
Women are taking charge of the narrative
One of Warren’s shining moments in the spotlight was reminding us all that your voice is a powerful weapon. Her defiance of attempts to silence her objection to the confirmation of Jeff Sessions as U.S. attorney general before her campaign even began led to a seminal moment and catchphrase that has taken on a life of its own. It was this feat of strength that caused an exasperated Mitch McConnell to utter “Nevertheless, she persisted,” now a pillar statement for feminists everywhere.
Jodi Kantor and Meghan Twohey persisted in remarkable reporting to share the stories of Harvey Weinstein’s victims, completely reshaping the public narrative and ultimately leading to his criminal conviction in February. Greta Thunberg is shaping the global narrative on climate change singlehandedly. Ava Duvernay is blazing new pathways for underrepresented stories to be told by more diverse filmmakers and production teams. These women inspire me because they weren’t content with continuing an existing narrative; they created their own, and that bodes well for all of us.
Women are demanding accountability
You should also be proud that the candidate who said she’d take on billionaires did so on the debate stage. Even without winning, she made Bloomberg account for his disgraceful comments about women (alleged in the book The Portable Bloomberg), dealing him blows that essentially ended his campaign.
Men should be held accountable for their behavior toward women. Not just in a soundbyte, not just in a campaign video, but in the everyday course of their careers and personal lives. The fact that male candidates are being held to stronger account on these issues is progress, even if it doesn’t feel like enough yet.
Diversity and representation used to be a “nice to have” for companies, and there was very little holding them accountable other than press coverage. Now, given the public pressure led by women, stronger scrutiny measures have been put in place, such as California requiring companies to have a female director on their board and Goldman Sachs no longer taking companies public without a female board member.
These changes aren’t confined to the policy level. At HubSpot, we get more questions than ever from job candidates of all genders about pay equity and diversity—and this is happening all over the business world. Employees can choose to work at a place that doesn’t just talk about diversity, but actually makes it a priority.
So, what now?
Warren persisted in her race; now it’s our turn. Instead of getting down, I’m getting to work. I’m going to do everything I can to blaze a trail for future leaders, to empower women and underrepresented minorities, and to create an inclusive workplace that allows everyone to be their true selves.
I believe we’ll see women presidents in my lifetime. I also believe we’ll see more women leaders of companies who will use their positions to build even more diverse workplaces. And when that happens, we’ll be proud that in spite of all of the reasons not to be optimistic, we all kept fighting.
Nevertheless, we persisted. Warren wouldn’t have it any other way.
Katie Burke is chief people officer at HubSpot.
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fortune--2020-03-09--How coronavirus is affecting the global concert industry, including SXSW and Coachella

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While the world scrambles to contain the coronavirus, the concert industry is suffering the secondary effects of the outbreak, with safety concerns leading to the cancellation of SXSW and the postponement of Coachella.
It’s completely understandable that mass gatherings like this are being preemptively shut down, given that COVID-19 is spread by humans in close proximity to each other. Just how much it will continue to affect the American live music space is unknown, but if the responses to the virus in China and Italy are indicative of what the U.S. must do to contain it, the next couple of months will likely see many more cancellations. The timing couldn’t be worse, as summer festival season normally kicks off with Coachella in April, followed by a number of massive gatherings that could lead to community transmission of the illness. Spring and summer tours are also in jeopardy, with Pearl Jam postponing the first leg of its North American tour out of concern for their fans’ health.
Here’s what’s happening abroad, the cancellations and postponements so far in the U.S., and the major music events coming up that could be affected should the number of cases and deaths due to coronavirus continue to rise.
China, Korea, and Japan have shut down almost all concerts
After the outbreak started in the city of Wuhan, the Chinese government combatted the virus’s spread with a massive lockdown of its citizens that included, starting in late January, the cancellation of all live events. The drastic measures, which include a massive surveillance effort, have slowed the virus’s spread.
Thanks to the internet, however, Chinese music fans have found ways to enjoy “live” music. Concerts and DJ sets are being livestreamed, particularly on the service BiliBili, which allows fans to chat during the performances and feel a semblance of the in-person interaction they’re missing. Showcases with several acts and online festivals with live and pre-recorded sets have already occurred, and some venues might even offer ticketed performances as a means to keep some revenue flowing. Members of the Shanghai Symphony Orchestra have also started offering master classes online as way to connect with fans and combat their own boredom.
Meanwhile, South Korea and Japan have largely shut down their concert industries as well, with K-Pop megastars BTS scrapping four April shows in Seoul that were supposed to kick off their worldwide “Map of the Soul Tour.” Some acts in both countries have defied the governments’ orders to perform in recent weeks, though it’s unlikely the trend will continue as the number of infections rise. A number of international acts, including Green Day, Stormzy, the Pixies, and Avril Lavigne, have also canceled their Asian tour dates. Japan, in particular, could suffer one of the worst cancellations of all: the Summer Olympics, set to begin this July in Tokyo.
Italy bans all cultural events, while France scraps most
With Italy suffering the worst coronavirus outbreak outside of Asia, the government there has ordered the lockdown of its northern region, including Milan and Venice, a move that affects 16 million residents. All cultural events in the country, as well as funerals, are prohibited until April 3, with people told to stay one meter apart.
In France, public events with more than 1,000 people are now banned, a rule that went into effect just days after the country initially capped indoor events at 5,000 attendees. The Tomorrowland Winter festival, set for March 14-21 at a ski resort in Huez, has also been called off. The EDM gathering was expected to have 25,000 attendees, with Steve Aoki, Armin van Buuren, and Afrojack headlining.
The SXSW cancellation and its massive fallout
After many high-profile entertainment figures and companies, the March 6 decision to pull the plug on SXSW wasn’t a surprise. Until then, the biggest American concert event to suffer this fate was Miami’s three-day Ultra Music Festival, which was slated to bring around 170,000 people to the city beginning March 20. Ultra ticket holders are now in an uproar because they’re being offered credit for 2021 or 2022 passes instead of full refunds, a sign that the organizers can’t afford this year’s massive loss.
The economic impact on the city, the festival itself, and all of the people directly and indirectly involved with SXSW is still impossible to gauge, as the the fallout will continue for months, if not years, to come. In 2019, the festival brought $356 million to the city of Austin as over 100,000 people came for the tech, film, and music events. As Texas Monthly reports, there’s the shadow economy of SXSW—”caterers, pedi-cabbers, ride-hailing drivers, bartenders and servers, tech crew and security staff”—that will lose a substantial part of their annual income, as will many venues and restaurants that rely on the festival to survive. Then there are the tech startups and indie artists, from filmmakers debuting their movies in the hopes of getting picked up by a distributor to the many bands and labels who already spent their money on travel and setting up showcases.
In the latter case, there’s still a chance many shows will go on—if the bands show up to play unofficial SXSW shows. Every year, hundreds of shows not under the festival’s umbrella take place throughout Austin and the city has not announced any specific plans to limit them. For some artists, who’ve already booked non-refundable travel, this might be the only way to offset some of the sunk costs. According to the Austin American-Statesman, several venues said in a statement they’re working to “ensure as many artists and events that want to continue on and perform a showcase in Austin in the following weeks are able to do so.” The same group has also started a GoFundMe to help venues, their employees, and artists affected by the cancellation.
But looking ahead to 2021, it’s unclear if SXSW will be able to come back, whether at full-strength or at all. The festival was not insured against a disease-related cancellation and is only offering credits to sponsors and badge holders, not refunds. As cofounder and Chief Executive Roland Swenson told the Wall Street Journal, “We are planning to carry on and do another event in 2021, but how we’re going to do that I’m not entirely sure.”
On March 9, just a day after that report, SXSW laid off around 50 employees from its year-round staff, with the terminations including people from departments across the board. The Austin Chronicle reported that one senior official in the organization said it was “the only way to stop the bleeding” and that the layoff targeted anyone who wasn’t working on pressing matters as the festival regroups.
Coachella and beyond
On March 10, Coachella and Stagecoach organizers Goldenvoice officially announced the festivals’ postponements. Coachella will now take place on the weekends of Oct. 9 to 11 and 23 to 25, with the lineup still to be determined. In the leadup to the move, Rolling Stone and several other outlets that Goldenvoice was in negotiations with artists to keep as many of them, including headliners Rage Agains the Machine and Frank Ocean, on the bill as possible. Unlike SXSW and Ultra, ticketholders can get a full refund.
It seemed inevitable, given the festival’s daily attendance of over 100,000 people and the rapid pace at which COVID-19 cases were getting discovered in Riverside County, where the festival takes place. In the days leading up to the announcement, the Coachella Valley went from zero confirmed infections to four, including one due to local exposure, prompting the immediate cancellation of the BNP Paribas Open tennis tournament at Indian Wells. One of the most popular events in the sport and the second-largest in the country after the U.S. Open., the event was supposed to begin the next day and its loss could cost local businesses $400 million in tourism-related revenue.
The concern isn’t limited to festivals, though, as bands are scrapping or reconsidering upcoming concerts across North America. On March 9, Pearl Jam announced it was canceling the first leg of its tour supporting the band’s new album, Gigaton. Citing the emergency situation in their hometown of Seattle, the fact that many of their fans travel long distances to attend their shows, and having “no reason to believe that it will be under control in the coming weeks ahead” due to the federal government’s handling of the outbreak, the group postponed 16 concerts in Canada and the States that were set for March 18 through April 19. Neil Young, meanwhile, released a statement saying that although he has a North American tour booked, he might not go through with it. “The idea of announcing the tour and putting tickets on sale is questionable and needs to be thought through,” he wrote, adding that “the last thing we want to do is put people at risk, especially our older audience.”
This now puts the spotlight on other festivals, including New Orleans Jazz Fest, which is set to begin April 24 and stretches into May. The latter month’s big music events include Electric Daisy Carnival in Las Vegas and Boston Calling, which takes place at the city’s Harvard Athletic Complex. Coincidentally, on March 10, Harvard ordered all of its students not to return to campus after spring break, with the University switching to online classes beginning March 30.
After that, June 5 to 7 is the scheduled weekend for Governors Ball on New York City’s Randall’s Island, located just 15 miles from the quarantined city of New Rochelle. Bonnaroo is set to take place in Tennessee the following weekend and has already sold out its 80,000 tickets. The organizers for all these festivals, as well as artists with spring and summer touring plans, will now just have to hope that the rate of new COVID-19 cases and deaths slows before they have to follow in the footsteps of SXSW, Coachella, or Pearl Jam.
Meanwhile, professional sports leagues and the NCAA are preparing to play games without spectators or, in the case of the March Madness tournament, limit the games to a handful of locations to concentrate safety efforts.With all that in mind, music fans in the U.S. can only take all the precautions against contracting the coronavirus and wait for word to come from local, state, and federal officials about what events can happen and what will be called off. At the moment, the shows will go on and Americans won’t have to resort to livestreaming concerts. But as coronavirus testing slowly catches up to the demand across the country and more cases are confirmed, the outlook for live events only seems to be getting worse.
Update, March 10, 2020: This story has been updated to reflect additional tour cancellations and the postponement of Coachella to October.
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fortune--2020-03-09--Here are two of the biggest losers from the Saudi Arabia oil price war

Saudi Arabia’s earth-shaking decision to launch an oil price war in the depths of an all encompassing markets crisis has sent the share price of its state oil company plunging below its initial public offer price, putting a strain on government finances and essentially killing off any plans for an international listing for now.
Shares in Saudi Aramco, which became the world’s most valuable public company following its IPO in December, fell by as much as 10% on Monday before recovering slightly. That’s the second straight day of heavy losses since Saudi Arabia failed to persuade Russia to join OPEC in cutting back oil production to support prices.
At 28 riyals, the shares is now down 26% from its December 16 high, a moment that briefly valued the company at the $2 trillion long dreamed of by Saudi Arabia’s de facto ruler, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.
Oil prices briefly plunged by up to 30% Monday, on track for their biggest daily drop since the 1991 Gulf War, at the prospect of sharply increased supply at a time when demand is slumping because of the global coronavirus outbreak. Shares in oil majors also slid, with Royal Dutch Shell down 14% and BP falling 21%.
After failing to drive through deeper production cuts this weekend, Saudi Arabia, the world’s biggest oil exporter, has embarked on a completely contrary policy, cutting its official selling price for April and pledging to boost production, moves that all but guarantee a brutal price war.
While some analysts think the Saudi move may be a tactic to coax Russia back to the negotiating table, others believe it is aimed at driving U.S. shale producers, who have transformed the oil market in recent years, out of business. It’s tried something similar in the past, but this time it has Aramco shareholders who are likely to get caught with an under-water stake.
$2.80 a barrel
As the world’s lowest cost producer (it costs Aramco just $2.80 to extract each barrel of oil) and with plenty of output in reserve, Saudi Arabia is well placed to emerge a winner in any battle for market share. However, a previous attempt by OPEC a few years ago to put U.S. shale producers out of business failed as the U.S. industry cut production costs and it is a more resilient competitor now.
“We’re calling this ‘Shale War 2’. 2015-2016 was the first shale war which lasted for 2 years, and which was ultimately unsuccessful. Whether OPEC has stumbled into this or whether it was by grand design, I don’t think we really know,” Neil Beveridge, senior oil analyst with Bernstein in Hong Kong, told Fortune. “We are now back into a war for market share at a time when the global economy is heading into potential recession, which makes it a very toxic combination of events.”
Beveridge says the low prices could trigger a wave of bankruptcies among U.S. shale oil producers. “I think you’re talking significant percentages, 20% plus of companies, going bankrupt as a result of this potentially, depending on how long it lasts.”
While Bob McNally, president of market research firm Rapidan Energy Group, told Bloomberg TV on Monday “we are headed to closer to $3 a barrel than $30”, Beveridge said he believed $30 “is going to be something of a floor for oil prices.”
Analysts at German investment bank Berenberg predicted pain on both sides of the Atlantic, with a sharp drop in rig count and production outlook from U.S. shale companies in the coming months.
“If this is not enough to rebalance the market in the short term, then oil prices could approach cash cost levels to force shut-ins of existing wells to reduce production immediately, and historically that has required oil prices below $30 a barrel (for) Brent. Such a price is not sustainable for a prolonged period, in our view,” they said in a note shared with Fortune.
Ehsan Ul-Haq, lead oil research analyst at data company Refinitiv, said that, while the breakdown between Russia and Saudi Arabia spelled turmoil for sovereign producers, it would bring much needed relief for buyers. Cuts to prices for Saudi Arabia’s main export grade, Arab Light, is “great news for its biggest buyers China, South Korea and India, and some compensation for the economic losses because of coronavirus.”
“We expect producers to mount a short-term race to maximize output to take market share from rivals … With prices falling, profitable extra production comes down to how cheaply you can pump out the product.” With the largest volume of spare supply, Saudi Arabia is in the best position to take advantage of the situation, Ul-Haq says. “Gulf allies the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait can also open up the taps.”
“The consequences could be profound. Expect straitened times for major oil companies already under huge pressure from ESG (environmental, social and governance) investors and the hit on oil demand from coronavirus, for the heavily indebted U.S. shale industry, for budgets and spending across oil-producing nations and a knock-on effect for industries and companies in oil-dependent regions like the Middle East.”
Saudi investors under water
But a prolonged oil price slump would also have painful consequences for Saudi Arabia.
Many Western investors steered clear of the Saudi Aramco IPO in December, believing the company was worth far less than the $1.7 trillion price tag Saudi Arabia placed on it. Saudi authorities encouraged thousands of ordinary Saudis to buy into the offer, and they will now be nursing significant losses. At Monday’s price, the company is valued at around $1.5 trillion, closer to what many Western investment banks believed it was worth before it went public.
“It was an overvalued stock. Maybe this will mean that people recalibrate it,” Beveridge said, although he pointed out that with some stocks falling 30% Monday, a 10% drop was “pretty good today.”
He believes the Saudi Aramco share price could have further to fall. “Our price target for Aramco is still around 25 riyals in the short term, so there is still some ways to go down, I think,” he said.
The Saudi government sold 3.45 billion shares (equal to a 1.725% stake in the company) for 32 riyals each in December’s IPO, raising $29.4 billion.
The oil price plunge has also raised questions about the sustainability of the dividend promised by Aramco, which is one of the main reasons for holding the shares. In its IPO prospectus, Aramco pledged to pay annual dividends of at least $75 billion between 2020 and 2024. If the board decides the dividend should be lower than that during that five-year period, the government would take a hit on the dividend it receives to ensure private shareholders get the full amount.
“You need a $60 oil price to generate the cash flows to cover the $75 billion dividend that they’ve pledged. At current oil prices it raises questions about the financing of that dividend,” Beveridge said.
A hole in revenues
Not only could the Saudi government take a hit by subsidizing the dividend, the low oil price also means it will receive much-reduced royalties from Aramco, punching a hole in its already strained finances.
The slump in Aramco’s stock price is a blow to Saudi prestige as it undermines plans for a second, international IPO aimed at raising funds for Prince Mohammed’s “Vision 2030” programme, a grand plan to modernize the Saudi economy, reduce its reliance on oil and open the way for foreign investment.
Saudi Finance Minister Mohammed Al-Jadaan told Bloomberg TV in January that an international IPO was “still on the cards” although it would not be “any time soon,” and the news agency reported last month that Saudi Aramco was in discussions with Wall Street banks to draw up scenarios for a second listing overseas.
However, Beveridge said he believed that, in the current environment, “it’s just not going to be possible to progress” a second listing.
“We are still a believer that oil demand will continue growing over the next decade and with the under-investment in the industry there will be supply problems leading to higher prices over time, so this year I think it’s challenging but could it happen in the future? I think it’s certainly possible, so I wouldn’t rule it out completely,” he said.
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fortune--2020-03-09--Ireland cancels major St. Patrick’s Day parades. Will Boston, New York be next?

Dublin, Ireland will not host its usual St. Patrick’s Day parade this year as concerns about the spread of the COVID-19 coronavirus continue to weigh on people’s minds.
The move comes on the heels of a similar announcement by officials in Cork, which hosts the country’s second largest gathering.
Last year, an estimated 2 million people attended St. Patrick’s celebrations in the country. This year, the Republic of Ireland has already diagnosed 21 cases of COVID-19 and officials worry the count could go higher, especially during high-profile events like the parades.
Two of the biggest parades in the U.S., however, are still moving forward as planned. Boston and New York still plan to host their events, despite confirmed cases of coronavirus in both cities. Officials in Boston say they are “carefully monitoring” developments.
As on Monday midday, 28 people were confirmed infected in Massachusetts, though only one is in Boston. And 16 people in New York City are confirmed to have the virus.
Both of the two U.S. events draw huge crowds. Last year, more than 1 million people attended the Boston parade. The New York parade drew roughly 2 million spectators.
And people are starting to ask why the cities haven’t followed Ireland’s lead.
Dublin and Cork have canceled their St. Patrick's Day parades.
Wouldn't it make sense for Chicago, Boston, and other US cities do the same? — Matthew Borus (@MatthewBorus) March 9, 2020
My favorite thing about all this coronavirus hysteria in Boston is that the St. Patrick's Day parade is still on for this weekend so like, way to pick and choose your battles I guess. — Robbie Russell (@vApathyv) March 9, 2020
The planners of various St. Patrick's Day parades (looking at you New York and Boston) should read about Philadelphia in 1918. — Tom Hearden (@followtheh) March 9, 2020
Have they cancelled the NYC St. Patrick's Day Parade yet? — John Carney (@carney) March 9, 2020
Both parades are set to take place this Sunday.
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fortune--2020-03-09--Is this your first stock market crash? Some advice for young investors

The stock market is getting crushed. It’s highly likely we are entering a bear market. And even if we don’t hit the technical 20% loss threshold of a bear, it certainly feels that way.
There have been a handful of stock market corrections since the Great Financial Crisis ended in 2009 but none of them had the carnage or levels of panic created by the current iteration.
The past 11 years or so have been kind to investors in risk assets so if you’re a young person who is relatively new to investing, this whole ordeal may come as a shock.
Now is as good a time as any to provide some reminders to those investors who may be experiencing their first bout of extreme market volatility:
You have to get used to market crashes
Since 1928, the S&P 500 has experienced 12 different declines of 30% or worse. There have been 20 times when stocks fell at least 20%. These losses have occurred once every 7-8 years and once every 4-5 years, respectively, on average. If you start investing in your 20s or 30s, your investment lifecycle could last six or seven decades when we include retirement years.
I’m 38 years old. Depending on my longevity I probably have 50 years or so ahead of me. In that time I’m expecting probably 10 or so bear markets including 5 or 6 more large market crashes. For those younger than me it will probably be even more.
Unfortunately, this is part of the trade-off when investing in risk assets.
Understand the trade-off between risk and reward
U.S. stocks have finished the year with a loss in 25 out of the past 92 years. The worst of those losses was in 1931, when stocks fell nearly 44%. Three-month t-bills (a proxy for cash or short-term savings rates) have never had a down year.
The safety of cash sounds pretty desirable right about now as stocks are getting hammered. But the trade-off for the relative stability of holding cash is you don’t earn as much in returns. One hundred dollars invested in t-bills in 1928 would have grown to around $2,080 by the end of 2019. That same $100 in the S&P 500 would have grown to more than $500,000.
Risk and reward are attached at the hip. You can’t expect to earn higher returns if you aren’t willing to accept occasional losses and volatility.
Don’t worry about timing the market
There’s an old saying that the stock market is the only business where the product goes on sale and all of the customers run out of the store. The problem is during a market crash, it will always feel like it’s too late to sell but too early to buy.
The good thing about being a young person is you don’t need to worry about timing the market to succeed. You have the ability to wait out bear markets because you have such a long runway in front of you.
The stock market is going to be much higher 30-40 years from now (and if it’s not then we have bigger problems on our hands). Periodic investing or dollar cost averaging into the market over time reduces your risk of making a badly timed purchase by diversifying your retirement contributions across time. And when stocks are down, that means you’ll be buying more shares in the stock market at lower prices.
Saving is more important than investing
Perfect is the enemy of good when creating an investment plan because there is no such thing as a perfect portfolio or investment strategy. The decent strategy you can stick with is vastly superior to the great strategy you can’t stick with.
This is especially true when you’re young and have many decades ahead of you to allow compounding to do the heavy lifting for you.
Just remember that saving money is more important than how you invest when you’re just starting out. You could be the next Warren Buffett as a stock-picker but if you don’t have a high savings rate to take advantage, it doesn’t matter how good you are at investing.
The stock market can help you compound your wealth over time but personal finances are more important than portfolio management, especially when you’re just beginning your investment quest.
Your biggest asset
Buffett is one of the richest people on the planet but young people have a bigger asset than the even Oracle of Omaha—human capital. Human capital represents your future earnings stream and it’s the biggest asset of all for young people because it acts as a representation for time.
Let’s look at an example to show how saving early can positively affect your investment balances in retirement. Sarah decides to start saving for retirement at age 25. She saves $500 a month in her retirement account until age 35. At this point, she stops saving and just let’s compound interest work in her favor. At age 65, assuming a 7% annual rate of return she will retire with approximately $675,000 even though she only contributed $60,000 total into her account.
Jon decides to wait until he is 40 to start saving. He saves the same $500 a month that Sarah did but he actually saves that amount right up until the day he retires. His total amount contributed to his account over those 25 years would be $150,000. Assuming he also earns an annual return of 7% on his funds he will end up with around $406,000 when he retires.
Even though Jon contributed 2.5x as much money as Sarah did, he actually ends up with almost $270,000 less than her at retirement. The best thing you can do as a young person is to start saving and investing as soon as possible to take advantage of your biggest asset.
And the fact that you now get to buy in at lower prices is a good thing over the long haul.
Ben Carlson, CFA is the Director of Institutional Asset Management at Ritholtz Wealth Management. He may own securities or assets discussed in this piece.
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fortune--2020-03-09--Robinhood crashes for third time as markets tank

As stocks dropped to their lowest point in over a year, traders who rely on the Robinhood app to buy and sell stocks were once again left on the sidelines Monday morning.
The company, which experienced a daylong outage one week ago and a partial outage the following morning, is once again experiencing issues, it announced Monday morning.
“We are experiencing issues with equities, options and crypto trading. We are working to resolve this issue as soon as possible,” the company said in a statement.
Forty minutes later, at 10:30 a.m. ET, Robinhood announced, “The issue has been identified and a fix is being implemented.”
[As of 11:30 a.m. ET, the company said trading had been “partially restored,” though the status page still warned users of a “degraded performance” on most trades and a “major outage” on fractional equity trades.]
The outage went over about as well as you’d expect.
RobinHood down again? That's a shame…. — JCaz (@JCaz14169042) March 9, 2020
this is going to be the death of robinhood. — bill goldthorpe (@bill_goldthorpe) March 9, 2020
Only a matter of the time before the SEC investigates Robinhood. — Ian Miles Cheong (@stillgray) March 9, 2020
Robinhood has been a popular tool for millennial investors, due to its commission-free policy and openness to cryptocurrencies. The company has not given a reason for the outage (just like last week), though one possible cause was a surge in trade volume as investors grow more concerned with the coronavirus outbreak.
Robinhood was down last week during the market’s biggest one-day gains in its history. As it misses one of the biggest drops, it raises additional questions about the company’s reliability, which could hurt its userbase.
More must-read stories from Fortune:
—Why plunging Treasury yields are so alarming
—Furious Robinhood customers want payback following two day outage
—Why investors suddenly turned on pot stocks
—With stocks down sharply are we approaching”buy” territory? Not by a longshot.
—Why it’s so hard to find the next Warby Parker
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fortune--2020-03-09--Coronavirus outbreak: ‘Several’ lawmakers had contact with person who got COVID-19

The Capitol’s attending physician said Monday that “several” members of Congress had contact with a person who attended a recent political conference and who subsequently developed COVID-19, the illness caused by the new coronavirus. They “remain in good health,” the physician’s office said.
In a note to lawmakers, the attending physician’s office said the ill individual had recalled “specific names of people he had contact with during the meeting.”
“Several of these individuals, Members of the Congress, were identified and were contacted on the evening of March 7” by the physician’s office, the note said.
Their symptoms were reviewed, and the individuals were considered to be at “low risk” of contracting the disease, the statement said. It said all of the lawmakers the physician’s office was monitoring “remain in good health.”
On Sunday, two members of Congress, Sen. Ted Cruz and Rep. Paul Gosar, said they are isolating themselves after determining they had contact with the person at the conference.
Cruz, R-Texas, said Sunday he had brief contact with the man at the Conservative Political Action Conference nearly two weeks ago and would spend the next few days at his home in Texas until a full 14 days had passed since their interaction.
Gosar, R-Ariz., said that he had made contact with the man at CPAC and that he and three members of his senior staff were under self-quarantine. His office will be closed for the week, he said in a tweet Sunday.
President Donald Trump also attended the CPAC meeting.
Besides Cruz and Gosar, the CPAC schedule listed three other senators and 12 House members who were scheduled to speak. They included No. 2 House GOP leader Steve Scalise of Louisiana, No. 3 Republican leader Liz Cheney of Wyoming and congressman Mark Meadows of North Carolina, who has since become the White House chief of staff. Also on the schedule was Transportation Secretary Elaine Chao, the wife of Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell.
Cheney has been told by CPAC that she was not exposed to the convention attendee who has tested positive for the coronavirus, a Cheney spokesman said.
Both President Donald Trump and Vice President Mike Pence spoke at CPAC, but the White House said there was no indication that either had met or been in “close proximity” to the infected attendee.
Cruz said he met the man being treated for coronavirus 10 days ago at the conference in Oxon Hill, Maryland. The Texas Republican said he’s not experiencing any symptoms, feels fine and has been advised by medical authorities that the odds of transmission were extremely low.
Yet, Cruz said, out of an abundance of caution he will remain at home. He said medical authorities advised him that those who have interacted with him in the last 10 days should not be concerned about potential transmission.
David Popp, spokesman for Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, said Sunday evening that no changes had been made in the chamber’s schedule in the wake of Cruz’s decision to remain in Texas. McConnell had spoken with Cruz, Popp said.
The Senate has a vote scheduled Monday evening and plans to be in session this week considering energy and possibly other legislation. The Senate and the House are set for a one-week recess the week of March 16.
More must-read stories from Fortune:
—Testing for coronavirus should be free, but it’s not always that simple
—Coronavirus is mutating: Chinese scientists find second strain
—Coronavirus is giving China cover to expand its surveillance. What happens next?
—The coronavirus is officially claiming its first corporate casualties
—Why the U.S. is so far behind other countries in coronavirus testing
—Travel insurance is booming, even though it doesn’t help flight changes and cancellations
Subscribe to Fortune’s Outbreak newsletter for a daily roundup of stories on the coronavirus outbreak and its impact on global business.


fortune--2020-03-09--Tesla shares plunge amid crash in oil prices, coronavirus risks

Tesla Inc. shares opened lower on Monday as concerns about a price war in oil spur a crash in crude prices and the coronavirus outbreak weighs heavily on car sales in China.
Shares of the electric-vehicle maker fell as much as 14% to $605 in New York before a wider sell-off prompted a market-wide trading halt. The shares last traded at these levels in late January. The stock had risen to about $917 in mid-February, just before a broader meltdown hit the markets amid the intensifying virus risks.
Dwindling oil prices, triggered by the breakup of the OPEC+ alliance, spells trouble for Tesla. With both Russia and Saudi Arabia flooding the market with cheap oil, the company’s expensive battery-driven vehicles will become a tougher sell.
The slowdown in China is another major challenge, given a big part of the company’s growth trajectory is dependent on that country, which is one of the major global markets for electric cars.
More must-read stories from Fortune:
—Why plunging Treasury yields are so alarming
—Furious Robinhood customers want payback following two day outage
—Why investors suddenly turned on pot stocks
—With stocks down sharply are we approaching”buy” territory? Not by a longshot.
—Why it’s so hard to find the next Warby Parker
Subscribe to Fortune’s Bull Sheet for no-nonsense finance news and analysis daily.


fortune--2020-03-09--Wall Street circuit breakers: All you need to know

Trading on Wall Street lasted less than five minutes Monday before it came to a screeching halt.
As stocks plunged and the S&P 500 fell 7%, circuit breakers kicked in, halting trading for a 15-minute period. If things continue to fall as the day continues, it might not be the last time.
The stock market has three sets of circuit breakers, meant to give traders a chance to catch their breath and reset on particularly bad days.
The first kicks in following a 7% drop. That’s in the rearview mirror now.
A Level Two halt goes into effect with a 13% drop. In today’s market, that would occur with a decline of 385 points on the S&P. It, too, would be a 15-minute break (unless that drop occurs after 3:25 p.m. ET).
A Level Three halt will occur if stocks fall 20% in a single day. That’s a 594 point drop in the S&P 500. If that occurs, trading will shut down for the rest of the day, regardless of when it happens.
Breakers were introduced to the NYSE in 1988 after the 1987 stock market crash. A Level Three breaker has only occurred once in that time —on Oct. 27, 1997 at the peak of the Asian financial crisis.
More must-read stories from Fortune:
—Why plunging Treasury yields are so alarming
—Furious Robinhood customers want payback following two day outage
—Why investors suddenly turned on pot stocks
—With stocks down sharply are we approaching”buy” territory? Not by a longshot.
—Why it’s so hard to find the next Warby Parker
Subscribe to Fortune’s Bull Sheet for no-nonsense finance news and analysis daily.


fortune--2020-03-09--‘Complete mayhem’: Mortgage refi applications soar 224% as rates hit an all-time low

Update: For the week of March 12, rates on the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rose slightly to 3.36% due to a surge in applications, according to Freddie Mac. The Federal Reserve’s decision to cut to interest rates to near zero on Sunday however could push rates even lower.
One bright spot as the coronavirus ravages the stock market?
Buying a house—or refinancing one—has never been cheaper. Indeed, at 3.29%, U.S. 30-year mortgage rates are at their lowest levels ever recorded. The rate tends to dip in disasters and times of great uncertainty as it takes nods from bond market yields. And at a time when investors are wondering whether coronavirus could slow the economy, they have piled into bonds and dragged down rates including on the 10-year treasury note that now yields 0.8%.
During the week ending Feb. 28, purchase applications were up 10% compared to the same period a year earlier, according to the Mortgage Banker’s Association. Meanwhile, applications from homeowners seeking to refinance their mortgages at the historically low rate rose about 224% compared to the year prior.
But, say experts, there may not be enough supply to meet the rising demand. “Home sales won’t be as responsive (to lower mortgage rates) as say if we had greater supply,” says Freddie Mac deputy chief economist Len Kiefer, who still expects to see a healthy 3-5% growth in home sales this year—assuming coronavirus’ impact remains contained. Kiefer says that new construction slowed dramatically following the financial crisis in 2008. As many homebuilders went bust, a shortage of skilled construction workers emerged. That has made it difficult to meet demand since.
In an earlier study, Freddie Mac estimated that the U.S. needs 3.3 million housing units to meet demand—particularly in Oregon, Colorado, California, and Florida.
“Last week was complete mayhem,” Ron Kramer, a branch manager for Fairway Independent Mortgage Corp. in Vancouver, Wash., said of the refinancing applications that have poured in recently. “We have never had to deal with something like this before.”
According to Kramer, Fairway processed some $39 billion in loans last year—or an average of $750 million a week. With rates this low, the company’s volumes were $3 billion last week alone, and mortgage companies have increased hiring to meet demand. Kramer estimates he has been working 85 to 90 hour weeks too keep up.
But what goes up must come down, and as he helps evaluate applications for the multi-trillion market, Kramer worries what the long term impact of this wave could have on the housing market. In particular, he thinks these refinancings could lead homeowners to stay in their houses longer, exacerbating the existing housing shortage.
“They are going to choose to stay in their own houses and they will renovate with the savings,” he said.
Home construction is expected to rise moderately this year according to Joel Kan, associate vice president of forecasting at the Mortgage Banker’s Association. But coronavirus could thrown all such estimates up in the air, as supply chains everywhere have been disrupted. According to a Jones Lang LaSalle estimate, anywhere between one quarter to one third of construction products in the U.S. may come from China.
“The impact of the virus is impossible to predict with certainty, but any prolonged slowdown in Chinese or global economic and manufacturing activity is likely to have significant ramifications for construction costs,” JLL analysts wrote in their United States 2020 Construction Outlook.
In the short term as well, the CEO of online real estate brokerage Redfin says brokers at the firm have seen some further tightening in Seattle, where the first U.S. coronavirus death was reported. The drop off in homebuyers and sellers has been “significant,” Glenn Kelman wrote in a post.
“It’s a tale of two markets: Buyers want [to take advantage] of the low mortgage rates, but sellers are going to have to open their house to strangers that want to tour,” he told Fortune. “Sellers are being more reticent, and that exacerbates the issue with the coronavirus.”
So far, the fear of coronavirus has not crept too deeply into other parts of the housing market, said Kelman, though some buyers have put home-buying on hold in other areas where the virus has emerged including Tampa Bay and San Antonio. But at a time when some consumers appear to be kicking into pure survival mode that verges on panic—economists and companies alike are taking things day-by-day.
“Everyone is unsure. If we thought that the housing market was in dire straights, we would say so,” Kelman says. “If we thought there was going to be a boom, we would say that.”
“But we have no idea how human beings might react,” he said.
More must-read stories from Fortune:
—Why plunging Treasury yields are so alarming
—Furious Robinhood customers want payback following two day outage
—Why investors suddenly turned on pot stocks
—With stocks down sharply are we approaching “buy” territory? Not by a longshot.
—Why it’s so hard to find the next Warby Parker
Subscribe to Fortune’s Bull Sheet for no-nonsense finance news and analysis daily.


fortune--2020-03-09--Market-wide stock trading halts 15 minutes after S&P 500 falls 7%

The severe rout in U.S. stocks triggered trading curbs that the New York Stock Exchange put in place after the 1987 Black Monday crash.
A 15-minute trading halt took hold after the S&P 500 Index fell 7% to 2,764.21 as of 9:34 a.m. in New York, triggering the breaker for the first time since December 2008 at the depths of the financial crisis. Futures had plunged 4.89% overnight Sunday, triggering exchange rules that limit losses on those contracts and distorting price discovery for the cash market before the opening.
When trading resumes, another 15-minute pause will happen if losses reach 13%, a drop that would put the S&P 500 at 2,585.96. If the decline hits 20%, or 2,377.9, markets will close for the day. Only the 20% rule applies in the final 35 minutes of cash trading. Traders have never seen a 13% or 20% breaker trip.
“Even though people are concerned it could create more problems, it does allow people to step back and re-assess what they’re doing,” said Matt Maley, an equity strategist at Miller Tabak & Co. “The one thing is, it’s been a long time since any of these circuit breakers kicked in. Back then, it was positive. It allowed people to calm down a little bit.”
The last time the futures trading limits hit was Nov. 8, 2016, following Donald Trump’s shock election victory. This time, a plunge in oil prices added to weeks of concern that the spreading coronavirus will derail the the global economy. Crude oil fell as much as 34% to $27.34 a barrel, the worst day since the Gulf War in 1991, after Saudi Arabia initiated an all-out price war.
Volatility has reigned in markets around the world amid an outbreak that has infected more than 108,000 people. At least 10 billion shares have traded on U.S. exchanges each day for two weeks, and the VIX has closed above 30 for seven days straight. Such turbulence is putting the vitality of the longest-ever bull market in jeopardy.
More must-read stories from Fortune:
—Why plunging Treasury yields are so alarming
—Furious Robinhood customers want payback following two day outage
—Why investors suddenly turned on pot stocks
—With stocks down sharply are we approaching”buy” territory? Not by a longshot.
—Why it’s so hard to find the next Warby Parker
Subscribe to Fortune’s Bull Sheet for no-nonsense finance news and analysis daily.


fortune--2020-03-09--Why the stock market probably won’t get back to even this year

What are the chances that once the coronavirus scare recedes, that markets will stage a V-shaped rally that catapults stocks back to the best levels of 2020? For a year that started with a bang, then suffered one of the quickest slides from glory to panic in history, that would amount to V-for-victory.
Since hitting an all-time high of 3394 in mid-February, the S&P 500 shed 422 points or 12.4% by the market close on Friday, March 6. I was wondering in how many past years the market dropped sharply early-on, then rebounded to recoup all of its losses by December 31. An interesting twist in the math is at work. To recoup a 12.4% decline, prices need to rise by 14.2%, or 1.8 points more, because the 422 points rebound starts at a lower base––the March 6 closing price of 2792.
When I requested the numbers at midday from Fortune’s crack statistician Scott Decarlo, the gain required for the S&P needed to regain its highs was 15%. So I asked Scott to find the number of years since 1930 that the S&P had rebounded 15% or more between March 10 and year-end. (Not only is 15% is a nice round number, but we can already tell from Monday’s open that the benchmark is bound to shift wildly in the days and weeks to come.)
The data shows that over those 90 years, the S&P beat the 15% bogey on 22 occasions, or one-quarter of the time. Many of the jumps happened in years when markets were roaring out of a deep rut, including the temporary surge in Depression years (1935, 1936, and 1938), the durable World War II comeback in 1942 and 1944, as well as the big bounces in 2003 and 2009 following the tech and mortgage meltdowns. The S&P also rang the bell in long big bull markets, notably the mid-1950s (1950, 1954 and 1955), and the early 1980s (1980, 1982, and 1983). Last year, the index also made the grade by posting a 16.1% gain, capping in a string of great years following the end of the financial crisis.
It’s important to note that in thirteen of those 22 years, the S&P gained over 20% between March 11 and December 31. In seven other years, it rose between 10% and 14.9%. So in 29 out of 90 years, the S&P either got reasonably close to our 15% benchmark, hit the mark, or in more than half the 15%-plus cases, far exceeded it.
Concluding that the S&P has about a one-in-four chance to regain or exceed its nearly 15% drop from the peak isn’t a bad guess. You could also extrapolate from history that the odds are about one-in-three that you’ll get back within 5% of your losses. Those are about the odds of shooting a 7 on at least one of your first two rolls in craps.
History, however, may be overstating the chances of getting back, or getting close, to even. A march back to the mid-February summit wouldn’t be a snapback from a severe correction, a frequent source of big March to December moves. It would be a return to the over-exuberance that drove prices to big valuations on top of earnings that peaked at extraordinarily high levels, and are now falling. For the S&P to come all the way back, momentum would need to trump the fundamentals.
Don’t bet on it.
More must-read stories from Fortune:
—Why plunging Treasury yields are so alarming
—Furious Robinhood customers want payback following two day outage
—Why investors suddenly turned on pot stocks
—With stocks down sharply are we approaching”buy” territory? Not by a longshot.
—Why it’s so hard to find the next Warby Parker
Subscribe to Fortune’s Bull Sheet for no-nonsense finance news and analysis daily.