fortune--2020-11-17--How AI is changing the legal profession

How AI is changing the legal profession

Good morning, readers. Fortune legal writer Jeff Roberts here filling in for Jonathan, who is a proud new papa. While he’s on leave, you’ll be hearing from Jeremy and me.
While AI is not something I write about on a regular basis, I’ve been surprised at how much it has become part of law and the legal profession in recent years.
The number of patent applications that concern AI, for instance, has roughly doubled from 30,000 to 60,000 in the past 15 years, and AI-related inventions now account for 15% of overall applications. Meanwhile, some intellectual property scholars are wondering whether to recognize machines as patent or copyright owners.
The legal issue is serious enough that agencies from the U.S. Copyright Office to the UK Intellectual Property Office have arranged public consultations to find an answer. Plus, a Missouri scientist is suing the Patent Office for refusing to acknowledge the role his AI system allegedly had in discovering an invention.
For now, authorities have been reluctant to award IP rights to non-human owners, but it feels like a matter of time until a jurisdiction somewhere in the world takes this leap, especially as AI takes on a greater role in writing software code that generates creative works.
The debate over AI’s role in law goes into more fundamental issues of justice. A growing number of companies provide tools that claim to anticipate how courts will rule in a given case. The process involves asking software to assess a host of factors—from venue to precedent to the judge in the case—in order to predict a ruling, which in turn affects a party’s choice whether to litigate or settle. I’ll leave it to experts to decide whether this technically counts as “AI”, but it’s clearly another example of machines challenging human decision-making. The phenomenon is especially notable given how judges (in theory, at least) are supposed to be among the wisest people in our society.
All of this raises the question of whether AI will see judges and lawyers replaced with algorithms—an outcome that could make the justice system less expensive and possibly more fair. For now, the prospect seems unlikely. In May, for instance, the buzzy startup Atrium, which had raised $75 million to “revolutionize” law firms with fancy software, quietly shut down.
The jury is still out, as they say. Thanks for reading—more AI news below.
Jeff John Roberts
@jeffjohnroberts
jeff.roberts@fortune.com
A.I. IN THE NEWS
Fix AI lending with...more AI: The finance industry has struggled to use AI in assessing who is eligible for loans—too often systems are built on data suffused with historic racism. An HBR author proposes building training models “not merely on the loans or mortgages issued in the past, but instead on how the money should have been lent in a more equitable world.”
Show us the code: AI is suffering from a replication crisis. Academics are fed up with companies like Google publishing flashy research without sharing the data that underlies it. “It’s more an advertisement for cool technology” than science, says one researcher who, along with 30 others, called on the journal Nature to require contributors to disclose the source of their findings.
Stand down, slaughterbot: Fears of warfare involving autonomous “slaughterbot” machines are likely overstated, says an Axios report on military use of AI. Even though drones proved decisive in the recent Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict, the biggest role for AI in the future is likely to be speeding human communication and decision-making rather than making Terminator-style machines.
Everything in moderation: Facebook provided more details about how it's using AI to police its troubled platform. The tech giant says machine learning now forms a bigger part of its moderation efforts, but acknowledges there are limits. “The system is about marrying AI and human reviewers to make less total mistakes. The AI is never going to be perfect,” says a Facebook engineer.
FORTUNE ON A.I.
A.I. recruiting startup wins competition to help military veterans find jobs—By Jeremy Kahn
The rise of the MOOCs: How Coursera is retraining the American workforce for a post-COVID economy—By Beth Kowitt
Apple’s user tracking prompts privacy complaint from Facebook nemesis Max Schrems—By David Meyer
He’s worried A.I. may destroy humanity. Just don’t confuse him with Elon Musk—By Jeremy Kahn
BRAIN FOOD
Catch me if you can: Remember the Pokémon craze of 2016, when half the world was stumbling down sidewalks and back alleys trying to capture the digital creatures on their phone? That cooled off, but Pokémons are still with us—and, thanks to AI, now number more than ever.
Programmer Matthew Rayfield makes digital toys, and recently used his own code and OpenAI's Generative Pretrained Transformer 2 (GPT-2) to create 3000 new little beasties, some of which could pass as close to real Pokémon.
From a Vice article explaining the project:
“The result was 100,000 lines worth of sprites. He used that text to re-train GPT-2, which output a random text-based sprite, and then reverse-engineer the line version into a colored-in image. What comes out are garbled little pixel creatures that, if you use your imagination, are pretty close to Pokémon.”
It’s a cool project, but I’m waiting to see if Rayfield can figure out to how make legions of new Transformers.


fortune--2020-11-17--Silicon Valley loses another tech icon

Silicon Valley loses another tech icon

Warren Buffett is going all in on the vaccine rally , piling into these stocks

Silicon Valley is losing another tech heavyweight: Keith Rabois, prolific startup investor, early exec at powerhouses such as Square, LinkedIn, Yelp, and PayPal, and longtime Bay Area resident. He tells me he is “moving imminently.”
Rabois revealed his decision to decamp during our conversation at the Meridian conference, an event hosted by the cryptocurrency-focused group Stellar Development Foundation. (Rabois, an investor in Stripe, joined Stellar’s board after Stripe made an investment in Stellar six years ago.)
“I think San Francisco is just so massively improperly run and managed that it’s impossible to stay here,” Rabois said. He believes he is not alone in giving up on the Bay Area, a place he has called home for two decades. He cited anecdotal evidence about many people in his social circles leaving, and noted, “COVID sort of masks this stuff. It’s not quite as obvious where people are moving to and if they’ve actually moved since everybody’s working remotely.”
Rabois is one of many Bay Area forsakers. His planned departure follows the flight of Peter Thiel, Rabois’s old Stanford buddy and PayPal partner, to Los Angeles in 2018. (Rabois joined Thiel’s venture capital firm Founder’s Fund last year.) In a much-read IPO prospectus this year, Alex Karp, CEO of Palantir, a PayPal spinout and Rabois investment, also said he was relocating the company to Colorado after laying into the Valley’s tech firms, calling them unpatriotic for pooh-poohing military contracts. And Jack Dorsey, CEO of Twitter and Square, where Rabois worked as chief operating officer for three years, planned to move to Africa before the pandemic struck.
Add Rabois to the list of emigrants. He said that COVID helped expose that the perceived handicaps to moving out of California are “more psychological than real.”
Data from Opendoor (which Rabois cofounded) and rival firms like Zillow reveal a trend. “Bay Area searches for rent are in free-fall, they’re down like 30%,” Rabois said. In big cities like New York and Los Angeles, rental searches are also dropping like crazy, as people acknowledge “all of the downsides” of urban life—higher costs of living and closer quarters—with few of the mostly social upsides, he said.
“It’s very clear right now, people are shifting their preferences pretty massively,” Rabois said. He added, though, that it remains to be seen whether the trend will continue once a vaccine becomes widely distributed and cities are able to open back up.
So where is Rabois moving? Just in time to avoid a west coast winter, he’s buying a home in the sunshine state. “Miami is an incredibly beautiful city, cosmopolitan, has an interesting mix of New Yorkers, Latin Americans, and Europeans,” Rabois said of his soon-to-be-home. Oh, and, “There’s no state income tax.”
“Living in the Bay Area for 20 years, it’s just like, all the things you wish you had,” Rabois said. “I’m a fan of warmer weather and water, so it feels like I’m going on vacation.”
How many will follow?
***
P.S. I don’t want to say I told you so just yet, but this early report of the new MacOS bricking computers, as Aaron pointed out yesterday, seems to confirm my theory that the rollout of Apple’s new tech would not go as planned.
Robert Hackett
Twitter: @rhhackett
robert.hackett@fortune.com
THREATS
We hope you enjoy your stay. Airbnb revealed its initial public offering paperwork on Monday, resuming plans it put on hold when the pandemic wrecked its business earlier this year. The company is far from consistently profitable, though it did bring in $219 million of profit on $1.34 billion in revenue in the third quarter of this year. Data Sheet's Danielle Abril dives into the numbers here.
Check yourself before you wreck yourself. Fact-checking labels are having little effect on curbing people's enthusiasm for fallacious Facebook posts by President Donald Trump. The labels, called "informs" within Facebook, decrease shares by about 8%, a minor impact given the leader's massive reach to millions of followers, BuzzFeed reports. And so unfounded allegations of election fraud continue to run rampant.
Do you know where your data is? The U.S. military—yes, the same one known to order drone strikes—is buying people's geolocation data. The data is siphoned by third-party aggregators from regular-seeming apps, usually unnoticed by their users. One of the apps cited in this Vice investigation is a Muslim prayer app with more than 98 million downloads.
Make way for Mudge. Twitter has hired a new head of security: "Mudge," a well-known hacker whose birth name is Peiter Zatko, Reuters reports. Mudge previously headed security at online payments firm Stripe, did a stint at Google, and helped the Pentagon hand out cybersecurity project grants. After this summer's big Twitter hack—in which Bitcoin scammers stole internal tooling to hijack celebrity accounts—there's no doubt Mudge has his work cut out for him.
Last stop: Capitalist hellscape.
ACCESS GRANTED
Central to 5G technology is an obscure information theoretic breakthrough called "polar codes," devised by the little-known Turkish scientist Erdal Arikan. The Chinese telecom giant Huawei seized the work, patented key aspects, and fought—successfully—to have it committed into the global standard for 5G. In this illuminating Wired profile, Arikan plays down the significance of his innovation, but says Huawei's parade of triumphs indicate that China will dominate the tech industry for decades to come.
“Polar codes itself is not what's important,” he continued. “It is a symbol. 5G is totally different than the internet. It's like a global nervous system. Huawei is the leading company in 5G. They will be around in 10, 20, 50 years—you cannot say that about the US tech companies. In the internet era, the US produced a few trillion-dollar companies. Because of 5G, China will have 10 or more trillion-dollar companies. Huawei and China now have the lead.”
FORTUNE RECON
Tesla will be added to the S&P 500, officially becoming a blue-chip stock by Jen Wieczner
The risk of ‘faux flexibility’ in the post-COVID workplace by Beth Kowitt
Can DoorDash maintain its pandemic boost? by Lucinda Shen
Apple’s user tracking prompts privacy complaint from Facebook nemesis Max Schrems by David Meyer
Your employees are not okay: How to handle mental health at work during a pandemic by Erika Fry
COVID-19 reminds us of the need to focus on health equity by Kyu Rhee, Irene Dankwa-Mullan, and Eduardo Sanchez
(Some of these stories require a subscription to access.Thank you for supporting our journalism.)
ONE MORE THING
The first volume of Barack Obama's autobiography, A Promised Land, drops today. The former President gave a wide-ranging interview to The Atlantic in which he discusses the impact of social media on democratic discourse. Here's a taste: "The degree to which these companies are insisting that they are more like a phone company than they are like The Atlantic, I do not think is tenable. They are making editorial choices, whether they’ve buried them in algorithms or not."
That sound you hear is Section 230 of the Communications Decency Act getting shredded into confetti.


fortune--2020-11-17--Everything to know about Airbnb’s IPO

Everything to know about Airbnb’s IPO

This is the web version of Term Sheet, a daily newsletter on the biggest deals and dealmakers. Sign up to get it delivered free to your inbox.
What a saga it has been for Airbnb.
The pandemic hit travel first and foremost, leading the home-sharing company to lay off nearly 2,000 of its employees. But from the brink, the company has returned for an IPO.
Here’s the skinny of that IPO, likely to list sometime in December.
COVID-19 hit like a truck: Revenue in the first nine months of 2020 dropped like a stone, to $2.5 billion from $3.7 billion the same period a year earlier. While Airbnb’s sales and marketing costs fell dramatically, the company piled on restructuring and borrowing costs. Net losses ballooned to $696.9 million in the same period, up over double from the same period a year prior. The company’s enviable free-cash-flow metric also turned negative in the period to $520.1 million from a positive $319.8 million.
But the company has come back stronger than many expected: Airbnb has hit profitability once again. After three quarters of straight losses, Airbnb posted net income of $219.3 million in the third quarter of 2020 as marketing costs remained low but consumers began travelling again.
Domestic is its new game plan: “Our business historically has been weighted toward cross-border travel, which accounted for 49% of nights in 2019,” its S-1 reads. But an increase in domestic travel, particularly in the U.S. and Europe, has been responsible for Airbnb’s bounceback. About 77% of bookings in experiences and stays came from domestic travel in September. “Several areas of our business have shown resilience, notably domestic travel, short-distance travel, travel outside of our top 20 cities, and long-term stays,” the filing reads.
Although bookings aren’t at 100%: Airbnb has fared better than many other travel businesses, but the company is not back to pre-pandemic times. Bookings for its stays and experiences in September still remained 28% below the same period a year earlier, while the company has fallen behind every month compared to the same period a year earlier, since March.
And Airbnb still faces legal risks: As my colleague Danielle Abril notes, Airbnb’s risk section is a compendium. Airbnb faces threats of increased regulation from governments that argue the company’s listings are driving up rental prices. (On the flipside, I’ve also heard the argument that Airbnb offers a way to revive economies during the pandemic.)
We don’t know how experiences are doing: Not so long ago, Airbnb was touting its experiences business, a key part of CEO Brian Chesky’s goal to create an end-to-end travel business. Pre-pandemic, you could make pasta in Florence or tour the desert in Oman with locals. Now, Airbnb is still offering video lessons. But the IPO filing doesn’t break out the exact figures for experiences. Last we heard—back in 2018—the numbers were small: about $15 million in revenue.
By the way, Airbnb is offering stock to hosts: As with Uber and Lyft, Airbnb is offering shares to select hosts on its platforms, namely U.S.-based hosts who have been on the platform in 2019 or 2020 or as decided by Airbnb officers and directors.
***
A TALE OF TWO PAYMENTS GIANTS: While Visa’s multi-billion dollar deal to acquire Plaid is at the center of a Department of Justice lawsuit, Mastercard has gotten the greenlight to acquire Finicity, a fintech platform compared to Plaid. Though the Mastercard deal also faced scrutiny from the DoJ, there were signs regulators were going in a different direction. In its lawsuit against Visa, the DoJ revealed that it thought Mastercard had been unable to make a notable mark in Visa’s pie: “For years, Mastercard has neither gained significant share from Visa nor restrained Visa’s monopoly…For example, Visa has long-term contracts with many of the nation’s largest banks that restrict these banks’ ability to issue Mastercard debit cards.”
Lucinda Shen
Twitter: @shenlucinda
Email: lucinda.shen@fortune.com
VENTURE DEALS
- DataRobot, a Boston-based enterprise A.I. platform, raised $270 million in funding. Altimeter Capital led the round and was joined by investors including T. Rowe Price, BlackRock, Silver Lake, NEA, and Tiger. The round values the company at over $2.7 billion.
- Strava, a San Francisco-based maker of a running app and social platform for athletes, raised $110 million in Series F funding. TCV and Sequoia Capital led the round and were joined by Dragoneer Investment Group, Madrone Capital Partners, Jackson Square Ventures, and Go4it Capital.
- Paddle, a London-based billings, subscriptions and payments platform for enterprises, raised $68 million (£52 million) in Series C funding. FTV Capital led the round and was joined by investors including Kindred Capital, Notion Capital, and 83 North.
- AliveCor, a Mountain View, Calif.-based provider of enterprise cardiology solutions, raised $65 million in Series E funding. Investors included OMRON, Khosla Ventures, WP Global Partners, Qualcomm Ventures, and Bold Capital Partners.
- Tibber, a Stockholm-based company seeking to make electricity cheaper and greener, raised $65 million in Series B funding. Eight Roads Ventures and Balderton Capital led the round and was joined by investors including Founders Fund.
- HOVER, a San Francisco-based provider of visualization tools for home improvement and property insurance professionals, raised $60 million in Series D funding. Investors included Travelers (NYSE: TRV), State Farm Ventures, and Nationwide.
- ActivTrak, an Austin-based workforce analytics software company, raised $50 million in Series B funding. Sapphire Ventures led the round.
- InterVenn Biosciences, a South San Francisco-based biotech with a diagnostic for ovarian cancer, raised $34 million in a Series B funding. Anzu Partners led the round and was joined by investors including Genoa Ventures, Amplify Partners, True Ventures, Xeraya Capital, and the Ojjeh Family.
- Chooch.ai, a San Francisco-based startup computer vision startup, raised $20 million in Series A funding. Vickers Venture Partners led the round and was joined by investors including 212, Streamlined Ventures, Alumni Ventures Group, and Waterman Ventures. Read more.
- Ferroelectric Memory GmbH, a Germany-based maker of technologies for the semiconductor industry, raised $20 million in Series B funding. M Ventures and imec.xpand led the round and was joined by investors including SK hynix, Robert Bosch Venture Capital, and TEL Venture Capital.
- Unbound Tech, a New York-based maker of cryptographic key management, raised $20 million in Series B funding. Evolution Equity Partners led the round and was joined by investors including Innovation Endeavors, Goldman Sachs, Citi and BlueRed Partners.
- Trust & Will, a San Diego-based estate planning site, raised $15 million. Jackson Square Ventures led the round and was joined by investors including Fifth Third Capital Holdings, Northwestern Mutual Future Ventures, AARP, Rosecliff Ventures, Hack VC, and Actium Partners.
- OpenPhone, a San Francisco-based business phone app, raised $14 million in Series A funding. David Sacks of Craft Ventures with participation from Slow Ventures, Kindred Ventures, Y Combinator, Garage Capital, and Chapter One Ventures.
- Gretel, a San Diego, Calif.-based maker of an API for anonymizing data, raised $12 million in Series A funding. Greylock led the round. Read more.
- Levels, a New York-based maker of a wearable that tracks blood sugar levels, raised $12 million in seed funding. A16z led the round and was joined by investors including Marc Randolph (co-founder of Netflix), Dick Costolo (former CEO of Twitter), Michael Arrington (Founder of TechCrunch), and Matt Dellavedova (NBA, Cleveland Cavaliers).
- Arrikto, a San Mateo, Calif.-based machine learning development startup, raised $10 million in Series A funding. Unusual Ventures led the round. Read more.
- Troy Medicare, a Charlotte, N.C.-based provider of a Medicare Advantage plan, raised $10 million in Series B funding. AXA Venture Partners led the round and was joined by investors including Sunwater Capital.
- Amicus.io, a Charlotte, N.C.-based fintech company with a philanthropic platform, raised $8.7 million in Series B funding. The FR Group led the round and was joined by investors including the Wells Fargo Startup Accelerator.
- Nymbl Science, a Denver-based provider of a fall prevention solution in the healthcare space, raised $4 million in Series A funding. Cobalt Ventures led the round.
- Terra Kaffe, a New York-based maker of an espresso machine, raised $4 million in seed funding. The Seed Lab led the round.
- SeeTree, a Tel Aviv, Israel-based maker of a way to track trees for farmers, raised $3 million from Orbia Ventures.
- Garden, a Berlin-based open-sourced development automation platform for Kubernetes and cloud native applications, raised €3.1 million ($3.7 million) in seed funding. Crowberry Capital led the round and was joined by investors including byFounders.
- Undock, a maker of a chrome extension for scheduling, raised $1.6 million in seed funding. Investors include Lightship Capital, Bessemer Venture Partners, Lerer Hippeau, Alumni Ventures Group, Active Capital, and Arlan Hamilton of Backstage Capital, Sarah Imbach of PayPal/LinkedIn. Read more.
- ALPEN Storage, a Charlottesville, Va.-based provider of a bike storage capsule, raised $1.5 million. Felton Group led the round.
- Queens Gaming Collective, a Los Angeles-based gaming lifestyle company aimed at women, raised $1.5 million in funding. BITKRAFT Ventures led the round.
- Infinicept, a Denver-based maker payments infrastructure, raised an undisclosed amount of funding from Mastercard and MissionOG.
PRIVATE EQUITY
- American Securities agreed to acquire and take private Foundation Building Materials (NYSE: FBM), a Santa Ana, Calif.-based specialty building products distributor, for about $1.4 billion.
- Cerberus will take Dorel Industries, a Canadian maker of bicycles and home products, for about C$470 million ($359 million).
- Arsenal Capital Partners acquired Best Value Healthcare, a Florida-based primary care platform focused on Medicare Advantage. Financial terms weren't disclosed.
- Central Logic, backed by Rubicon Technology Partners, acquired Ensocare, an Omaha-based company for referring patients from hospital to post-acute care. Financial terms weren't disclosed.
- Clearlake Capital Group acquired Zywave and Advisen, providers of front office insurance. Aurora Capital Partners, previously the majority owner of Zywave, is investing alongside Clearlake. Financial terms weren't disclosed.
- CenterOak Partners formed CollisionRight, a Columbus, Oh.-based operator of auto body repair services formed through a network of 20 shops. Financial terms weren't disclosed.
- Gryphon Investors acquired Vessco, a Minneapolis distributor automation equipment and services to water and wastewater treatment utilities. Financial terms weren't disclosed.
- Investcorp Holdings will acquire a majority stake in Viz Branz Pte, a Singaporean instant beverage maker, from Beng Chng. The sale could value the firm at $372 million. Read more.
- KKR invested in CMC Machinery, an Italian maker of packaging solutions. Financial terms weren't disclosed.
- KKR invested $100 million in Zeus Health (“Zeus”), a company formed by Duke Rohlen seeking to invest in emerging medical device companies.
- SemiTorr, backed by Transom Capital Group, acquired M-I-C, a Livermore, Calif.-based seller of equipment to biotech, pharmaceutical and industrial customers. Financial terms weren't disclosed.
- AccentCare, backed by Advent International, combined with Seasons Hospice & Palliative Care, a Rosemont, Ill.-based health, personal care services provider. Financial terms weren't disclosed.
- Two Circles, backed by Bruin Sports Capital, acquired TRM Partners, a U.K.-based sports rights management business. Financial terms weren't disclosed.
EXITS
- Carlyle Group is weighing plans to sell Hunkemoller, a Dutch lingerie and swimwear retailer, per Bloomberg. Read more.
- OMERS Private Equity acquired TurnPoint Services, a Louisville, Kentucky-based provider of HVAC services, from Trivest Partners. Financial terms weren't disclosed.
Breakups and Hangups
- Francesca’s (Nasdaq: FRAN), a Houston-based women’s clothing retailer, plans to permanently shutter 140 stores by the end of January and may file for bankruptcy.
OTHER
- PNC Financial will acquire BBVA (MC:BBVA)’s U.S. business for $11.6 billion in cash to create a new banking giant.
- Home Depot (NYSE:HD) plans to acquire HD Supply Holdings (Nasdaq: HDS), an industrial materials wholesaler it once owned, in a deal valued at about $8 billion.
- Baidu (Nasdaq: BIDU) agreed to acquire Joyy’s (Nasdaq: YY) livestreaming business for China for about $3.6 billion. Read more.
- Scooter Braun sold Taylor Swift’s first six albums to Shamrock Holdings, valuing the portfolio at $300 million, per Bloomberg. Read more.
- Banco Santander agreed to acquire technology assets from Wirecard AG, German payment processor. Financial terms weren't disclosed. Read more.
- IBM (NYSE: IBM) plans to acquire TruQua Enterprises, a Chicago, Ill.-based IT services and consulting firm. Financial terms weren't disclosed.
IPO
- Olema Pharmaceuticals, a San Francisco-based biotech developing therapies for women's cancers, plans to raise $170 million at the midpoint of its offering. Backers include BVF Partners, Cormorant Asset Management, and Janus Capital Management. Read more.
SPAC
- Bird, the Santa Monica, Calif.-based scooter company, is looking to go public via merger with a SPAC, per Bloomberg citing sources. Read more.
- Far Peak Acquisition, a SPAC formed by former NYSE President Tom Farley, filed to raise $550 million. Read more.
- Gores Holdings VI, a SPAC formed by The Gores Group, now says it plans to raise $300 million, down from the $525 million it previously sought. Read more.
- Highland Transcend Partners I, a blank check company formed by Highland Capital Partners, filed to raise $250 million. Read more.
- Trepont Acquisition I, a SPAC led the round by Arun Sarin (a former CEO at Vodafone), filed to raise $200 million. Read more.
- Aequi Acquisition, a SPAC, now says it plans to raise $200 million, down from the $300 million it previously sought. Read more.
- 10X Capital Venture Acquisition, a SPAC formed by 10X Capital, now says it plans to raise $175 million, down from the $220 million it previously sought. Read more.
- L&F Acquisition, a SPAC formed by Victory Park Capital, now seeks to raise $150 million, down from the $200 million it previously sought. Read more.
F+FS
- Thomas H. Lee Partners closed THL Automation Fund, which will back automation companies, with $900 million.
PEOPLE
- MSD, the investment arm formed by Michael Dell, added Gregg Lemkau to lead the firm. Read more.
- Emergence Capital promoted Jake Saper to general partner and Carlotta Siniscalco to principal.
- Cornell Capital promoted Emily Pollack to partner.


fortune--2020-11-17--Airlines saw an immediate boost in passenger bookings following vaccine announcements

Good news on the vaccine front has had an immediate and tantalizing effect on the travel sector, suggesting many passengers are raring to get going again.
On Tuesday, the U.K.-based low-cost airline EasyJet issued results that were mostly gloomy—it posted its first annual loss, of $1.68 billion, in its quarter-century history. But it also pointed to a glimmer of hope.
When Pfizer and BioNTech announced their promising COVID-19 vaccine trial results last week Monday, said EasyJet CEO Johan Lundgren, the carrier’s bookings surged by 50%. According to Reuters, he added that the momentum continued this week Monday, when Moderna also announced a very high efficacy for its candidate vaccine.
Similar indications came last week from British travel comparison and booking websites.
Following the Pfizer/BioNTech trial-results announcement, Skyscanner said it saw a 48% week-on-week increase in searches for travel next spring and summer. The firm’s senior brand director, Jo McClintock, said the advances in vaccine development were “the single biggest factor in restoring traveler confidence.”
Meanwhile, TravelSupermarket.com saw a 54% week-on-week uplift on that first vaccine announcement, with spokeswoman Emma Coulthurst calling the news “the positive shot which the industry and travelers need.
“The weekend just gone saw a further increase in holiday searching and booking compared with the previous weekend,” Coulthurst said in an emailed statement.
‘Multiyear recovery’
It’s not hard to see why the announcements sent airline stocks soaring. However, there are two notable factors to bear in mind here.
One is that airlines are currently offering fantastic deals on flights next year, as they try to tempt people back into the air. So with even a hint that flying might be safe enough within that timescale, many people can afford to take a chance and book now.
The other thing to remember is that the vaccine announcements, in which the pharma firms hailed efficacy levels above 90%, mark only a first step toward a return to normality. Final trial results are still needed, then authorization by drug regulators, and then the mammoth task of producing and distributing the vaccines to billions of people around the world.
(On that last front, the International Air Transport Association [IATA] issued guidance to the air cargo industry Monday, to help it prepare for its role in handling and transporting vaccine doses at an unprecedented scale.)
In a Tuesday note, the investment bank Liberum said the vaccine announcements suggest there won’t be a “protracted or even indefinite period of having to live with the virus and its risks.” However, it wasn’t too bullish on the prospect of all passengers flocking back to terminals anytime soon.
“We still expect a multiyear recovery for demand, especially with the full economic fallout on household incomes and employment yet to be seen,” Liberum said.
Testing times
Vaccines will also be only one element of making flying safe again, albeit a major one. Speedy and effective coronavirus testing will also be important, and—while promising new testing developments lie just around the corner—today’s rapid antigen tests are not very reliable. (Just ask Elon Musk.)
Even considering those antigen tests, a level of political coordination will be needed to ensure that their results are trusted on both ends of a journey. And things aren’t looking great there.
Also Tuesday, Reuters reported that many EU governments oppose the establishment of common rules around rapid COVID-19 tests.
The situation leaves European airlines, which are using such tests for domestic flights, largely unable to deploy them for international routes.


fortune--2020-11-17--Amazon Pharmacy is live: Shoppers can now order prescriptions directly through the tech giant

Amazon.com Inc. unveiled its biggest push into selling prescription drugs with the launch of a digital pharmacy and discounts for paying U.S. Prime members that sent shock waves through shares of drugstore chains and distributors.
The e-commerce giant on Tuesday unveiled Amazon Pharmacy, a section of its retail website and mobile application that lets people order medication. Shoppers can pay using their health insurance. Prime members who don’t use their insurance are eligible for discounts on generic and brand-name drugs on Amazon’s site or at about 50,000 participating pharmacies.
Amazon’s new offering comes more than two years after its $753 million acquisition of PillPack, an online pharmacy known for organizing prescriptions into packets. This expansion puts the Seattle-based e-commerce company into more direct competition with pharmacy giants CVS Health Corp. and Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc., the two largest chains in the U.S.
CVS shares fell 8.6% in trading before U.S. exchanges opened. Walgreens Boots dropped as much as 12%. GoodRx Holdings, a digital prescription-drug platform, fell 17%. Drug distributor Cardinal Health Inc. lost 8.5%, while rival McKesson Corp. slid 4.7%.
The move also helps Amazon compete with Walmart Inc. and other big-box stores that already sell prescription drugs.
Analysts have long expected Amazon to dive deeper into health care in a bet the company can bring its digital real estate and logistical prowess to bear on a roughly $4 trillion industry in the U.S. with a reputation for inefficiency. The company rattled drug retailers with its PillPack acquisition, but Amazon has been slow to integrate the online pharmacy startup into its offerings.
The announcement Tuesday marks the first time that shoppers can order prescription drugs directly on Amazon. Previously, they were redirected to PillPack’s website. An integrated pharmacy removes one of the few gaps in Amazon’s offerings compared with major big box and grocery rivals, some of whom have long filled shoppers’ prescriptions in the same stores where they sold flat-screen televisions or cans of soup.
The discounts are a clear play for people who pay for their medications with cash, whether they are uninsured or are looking to save money. Strong demand for transparency and better deals have helped fuel the rise of discount card programs like GoodRx Holdings Inc. Amazon will display both the price when using insurance and the price without. Infusing transparency into a system that has been frustratingly opaque for consumers could alter the supply chain.
“We designed Amazon Pharmacy to put customers first – bringing Amazon’s customer obsession to an industry that can be inconvenient and confusing,” said TJ Parker, vice president of Amazon Pharmacy and co-founder of PillPack.
Amazon’s push comes as consumers are shunning stores and ordering more items online, a trend the coronavirus pandemic has accelerated. With consumer behavior shifting, chain drugstores have already started rethinking their strategies. CVS acquired health insurer Aetna for $68 billion in 2018 and is adding more health services to its stores. Walgreens is dabbling with numerous partnerships to add items like groceries and mobile phones to its stores.
Amazon could find it difficult to quickly pry away customers from pharmacy chains. For many consumers, asking doctors to steer recurring prescriptions elsewhere is cumbersome, especially for those who rely on insurance to pay for their medication.
In some cases, such a switch might also require an office visit — at a time when Americans have been steering clear of the doctor’s office out of concerns about the pandemic. And the ubiquity of the biggest pharmacy chains means most consumers have one nearby, and shopping at them is an ingrained habit.
Amazon’s entry into a market doesn’t guarantee its dominance. Drugstores have long insisted that patients prefer to talk to their pharmacist at the counter, an experience Amazon will try to recreate digitally.
Amazon Chief Executive Officer Jeff Bezos has positioned Prime, Amazon’s paid membership program, at the center of the company’s efforts to create loyal customers. What was originally an unlimited shipping program has grown in recent years to include video streaming, games and digital storage, and discounts at Amazon-owned Whole Foods Market.


fortune--2020-11-17--Walmart CEO becomes latest business figure to congratulate Biden as Trump  continues to deny results

In a rare foray into politics, Walmart CEO Doug McMillon expressed well-wishes to President-elect Joe Biden on Tuesday, joining the roster of business leaders and groups to acknowledge the election results that President Donald Trump continues to baselessly dispute.
On a conference call to discuss Walmart’s strong third-quarter results, McMillon ended his opening remarks by saying, “Congratulations to President-elect Joe Biden.” He continued: “We look forward to working with the administration and both houses of Congress to move the country forward.”
Last week, some 24 of America’s top CEOs convened to discuss the possibility of Trump’s refusal to leave office, according to news reports. It is not known whether McMillon was on that call, but the Walmart boss is a member of the Business Roundtable, which last week released a statement acknowledging and congratulating Biden and Vice President–elect Kamala Harris in their new roles as Big Business looks to avoid the political tumult that could harm the economy’s recovery.
The Trump administration’s legal challenges in various states have largely fizzled, and no major voting irregularities have been detected. Biden won 306 Electoral College votes, more than enough to win the presidency.
Few CEOs have been as explicit as McMillon, who leads the largest company and private employer in the U.S., in congratulating Biden. Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon was another. Because of its broad customer base, Walmart rarely wades explicitly into political discussions.
As for Walmart’s performance during the second quarter, the retailer’s U.S. division, which generates more than 60% of the company’s revenue, again flourished as shoppers consolidated trips at fewer retailers and took advantage of Walmart’s expansive e-commerce offering and ability to have shoppers pick up orders curbside.
Comparable sales, which include business at stores open for at least 12 months and digital revenue, rose 6.4%, high by pre-pandemic standards for Walmart. E-commerce rose 78%, and McMillon noted that Walmart had “significantly” reduced losses on e-commerce. It achieved that by having more people retrieve orders at stores, which saves the company on shipping, and by selling more high-margin items.
At the same time, there were some danger signs. In-store comparable sales rose only 0.7%. The number of transactions, a proxy for shopper visits, fell 14%, but shoppers spent 24% more, suggesting that shoppers wary of COVID-19 are visiting stores less often. That could hurt Walmart in terms of impulse purchases and other spending that arises from browsing, something particularly important during the holidays.
What’s more, while the 6.4% increase bested Wall Street forecasts by nearly three percentage points, it was a marked slowdown from the previous quarter. Analysts pegged that in large part to Walmart’s larger reliance on lower-income customers dependent on government assistance this year, compared to Target’s clientele, for example. McMillon himself noted Walmart had gotten “less benefit” as millions of Americans received less financial assistance.
“Walmart is more exposed to this group than many other retailers and, as a result, saw some deterioration in spending levels,” GlobalData managing director Neil Saunders wrote in a research note. “It is no longer being boosted by uniformly higher spending across all the income groups it serves.”
Still, finance chief Brett Biggs told analysts on the call he expected Walmart to have a strong holiday quarter, with the trends that have buoyed it so far since the pandemic started persisting. “Customers are resilient,” he said. Biggs also noted Walmart had made improvements in its in-stock levels, also crucial during the holidays, when product shortages at stores would dent sales.
The company’s Sam’s Club business also prospered, with comparable sales up 11.1% as it enjoyed the same factors boosting its most direct rival, Costco Wholesale. Walmart, which also operates a big international division, said total revenue rose 5.2% to $134.71 billion, above analyst projections.


fortune--2020-11-17--Elon Musk set to pass Mark Zuckerberg in net worth

It’s been an eventful few days for Elon Musk.
The billionaire tested positive for Covid-19, his rocket company launched four astronauts into space, and on Monday his electric carmaker Tesla Inc. was named for inclusion in the S&P 500 Index.
The last bit of news added the equivalent of rocket fuel to his fortune. Musk, 49, is poised to become the world’s third-richest person, leapfrogging Mark Zuckerberg, after his net worth soared in extended trading.
Tesla, whose stock closed at $408.09, surged as much as 15% on Monday night. In pre-market trading in New York, the stock was trading at about $460, putting his fortune up $11.8 billion to $114 billion, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index. His wealth has jumped just shy of $90 billion this year, the biggest gain on the ranking of the world’s 500 richest people.
Tesla will enter the S&P 500 on Dec. 21 following months of speculation and one temporary setback, when the stock failed to make the cut during the index’s quarterly rebalancing in early September. Tesla would be the biggest new entrant in the group’s history.
On Saturday, Musk tweeted that he “most likely” had a moderate case of Covid-19 and has had symptoms of “a minor cold.” Sunday he tweeted he had no symptoms. That same day, four astronauts were launched to the International Space Station in a vehicle built by Musk’s Space Exploration Technologies Corp.


fortune--2020-11-17--Universal movies will be available to stream faster

Universal Pictures has struck another deal with a major theater chain to shorten the theatrical window from three months to as little as 17 days in an effort to adapt to the new business realities of moviegoing.
Universal and Cinemark announced Monday a multiyear agreement that guarantees three full weekends, or 17 days, of theatrical exclusivity for Universal and Focus Feature titles before a film can become available to rent on demand. Films that open to $50 million or more, however, will stay in theaters exclusively for at least five full weekends, or 31 days.
The Hollywood studio behind the “Fast & Furious” and “Jurassic World” franchises is the only major player to reach this kind of agreement with major exhibitors, who have until now clung to the standard 90-day theatrical window, but it is likely not the last.
Earlier this summer, Universal made a similar agreement with the nation’s largest chain, AMC Theaters.
“Universal’s century-long partnership with exhibition is rooted in the theatrical experience, and we are more committed than ever for audiences to experience our movies on the big screen,” said Donna Langley, the chairman of Universal Filmed Entertainment Group, in a statement.
Although specific terms were not disclosed for either, there is an element of profit sharing in the premium video on demand rentals between the studio and the exhibitors.
“We have been talking to multiple studios about doing a version of dynamic windowing for quite some time, even going back pre-COVID,” said Cinemark CEO Mark Zoradi. “With COVID and the reduced amount of content, it just made sense to accelerate this.”
Zoradi said that Universal was forward-thinking in coming to this “mutually beneficial agreement” and wouldn’t be surprised if more studios follow suit.
The flexibility to ensure that blockbusters would have a longer exclusive run in theaters was key for the company. Each movie will be evaluated on a case-by-case basis as to when it becomes available on demand. Once they are, most will continue playing in theaters simultaneously.
Universal and Focus still have a number of films on the release calendar for the rest of the year including the animated “The Croods: A New Age,” out Nov. 25, as well as the Tom Hanks film “News of the World” and “Promising Young Woman,” both out on Christmas.
Cinemark, which operates brands like Century, Tinseltown and Rave, operates some 332 theaters in the U.S. and 202 internationally. Around 90% of its U.S. theaters are currently open in accordance with local regulations.


fortune--2020-11-17--Zurich added 6 words to job listings and saw women’s share of applications—and hires—jump

This is the web version of The Broadsheet, a daily newsletter for and about the world’s most powerful women. Sign up to get it delivered free to your inbox.
Good morning, Broadsheet readers! SpaceX astronauts arrive at the International Space Station, Taylor Swift’s masters have a new owner, and a new study makes the case for flexible work arrangements. Have a lovely Tuesday.
– The ‘six word’ difference. The pandemic has foisted work-from-home arrangements on employers; one lingering question is whether the more flexible approach to work will last beyond the current crisis. A new study suggests it should.
Last year, the U.K. division of Zurich, an insurer, advertised 80% of its open positions as “part-time, full-time, job share or flexible working” opportunities. (It also used “gender-neutral language” in each listing.)
The results, published today, are noteworthy: Zurich says women made up a larger share of applicants for top jobs, and, ultimately, the 28 senior women it hired represented 50% of all senior hires, up from women’s 37.5% share the previous year.
“[W]e’ve seen hugely encouraging results, simply by adding six words to our job adverts,” Steve Collinson, Zurich’s head of HR, said in a statement. The findings suggest that offering roles with more flexibility could “help women progress into higher paid jobs whilst fitting other commitments around their careers,” he said.
Underpinning the study is a reality we’re painfully aware of; that women continue to shoulder a disproportionately large share of household and childcare responsibilities. Fixed working hours and face-time expectations can be incongruous with the demands of their daily lives, so much so that such rigidity can drive women from the work force.
The pandemic has only exacerbated those trends; women are more likely to take on the additional at-home tasks, such as children’s remote learning, which makes their need for flexible work arrangements (not to mention childcare options!) even more dire.
The new Zurich study—backed by the U.K. government’s Behavioral Insights Team and conducted from March 2019 to February 2020, before the pandemic and recession hit—makes the case for extending flexible working arrangements beyond the current crisis.
It also suggests that flexibility at work is not just a women’s issue. Overall, Zurich says the job listings attracted more than double the number of applications by both male and female candidates.
Claire Zillman
claire.zillman@fortune.com
@claire.zillman
Today’s Broadsheet was curated by Emma Hinchliffe.
ALSO IN THE HEADLINES
- Blast off. Last night, four astronauts—including Shannon Walker—arrived at the International Space Station in a SpaceX capsule. This was the first fully operational crewed mission for SpaceX, the company led by president Gwynne Shotwell. CNN
- Schoolin' life. In this year's class of first-year business school students, women make up a bigger share of students than ever—but are still far from 50%. The Stanford Graduate School of Business and the Tuck School of Business at Dartmouth came closest to gender parity in incoming students. Bloomberg
- Fed up. The Senate is set to vote today on a procedural motion that moves closer to confirming Judy Shelton to the Federal Reserve's board of governors—and could vote on her actual confirmation later in the day. Shelton's nomination by President Trump is controversial. Bloomberg
- Moldova for Maia. Opposition candidate Maia Sandu won a landslide victory in Moldova's election against the pro-Russia incumbent. Sandu is a former World Bank economist who favors closer ties with the European Union. Guardian
MOVERS AND SHAKERS: Dina Powell McCormick is taking on a new role at Goldman Sachs as global head of sustainability and inclusive growth and global head of the bank’s sovereign business. Harper's Bazaar hired GQ's Nikki Ogunnaike as digital director. At Gitlab, Palo Alto Networks' Wendy Nice Barnes is the new chief people officer and Merline Saintil joins the board of directors. Leslie Godridge, former co-head of corporate and commercial banking at US Bancorp, and Rudina Seseri, founder and managing partner at Glasswing Ventures, join M&T Bank's board. Food52 hired Stacey C. Rivera, formerly of WW, as SVP of content. Verbal Behavior Associates named Heather O’Shea president. At De Beers Group, SVP of social impact Katie Fergusson is now SVP of sustainable impact; SVP of international relations and ethical initiatives Feriel Zerouki is now SVP, corporate affairs; SVP of group brand in London and VP for marketing and communications at Forevermark US Colby Shergalis is now SVP, brand marketing; and Forevermark CMO Martha Velando is now SVP, global marketing. Annette Clayton, CEO and president, Schneider Electric North America, is the new chair for the National Electrical Manufacturers Association board of governors.
IN CASE YOU MISSED IT
- You belong with who? Remember the drama over Taylor Swift's masters? (The pop star strongly objected to various male music executives' control of her music.) Mega-manager Scooter Braun's company sold the rights to Swift's first six albums to an investment fund for a deal valued around $300 million. Swift is not the buyer and is still planning to re-record her old music because of the ownership situation. Variety
- Michelle's take. Michelle Obama weighed in on the Trump-Biden transition-of-power situation. "The presidency doesn’t belong to any one individual or any one party. To pretend that it does, to play along with these groundless conspiracy theories—whether for personal or political gain—is to put our country’s health and security in danger," the former first lady wrote on Instagram. "This isn’t a game." Politico
- Pivot pays off. Was Rep. Elise Stefanik's pivot from GOP moderate to strong Trump supporter worth it? Her New York district is known as a bellwether—and now Stefanik herself is seen as a bellwether congresswoman, reflecting current trends in the Republican Party. The Atlantic
ON MY RADAR
Lena Dunham: False labor, giving up on motherhood Harper's
The pandemic is amplifying tensions between working moms and child-free colleagues Washington Post
The year of Thee Stallion GQ
PARTING WORDS
"I’ve never been able to be anyone but myself. ... The conclusion I’ve come to in the past 10 years is, well, I might as well just lean hard into who I am."
-Comedian and writer Rachel Bloom


fortune--2020-11-18--FAA gives Boeing 737 Max the green light to fly again, shares soar

Here are the most bullish trades for 2021—and , no , Bitcoin does not top the list

Boeing Co.’s 737 Max can safely return to the skies with an extensive package of fixes, U.S. regulators ruled, after a scarring 20-month hiatus prompted by a pair of fatal crashes.
The actions announced Wednesday on the Federal Aviation Administration’s website mark the end to the longest grounding of a jetliner in U.S. history and set the stage for airlines and other regulators around the world to resume passenger service with the plane.
Boeing shares jumped 5.3% to $221.27 in pre-market New York trading. Through Tuesday, they had lost 50% of their value since the March 10, 2019 crash of an Ethiopian Airlines Group flight that triggered the global grounding of the 737 Max.
The FAA action is a dramatic turning point for Boeing after more than two years of bad news surrounding its best-selling model. But the aircraft’s return won’t mean an immediate end to the controversy or a cash infusion for the company’s suffering bottom line.
A criminal probe by the U.S. Justice Department continues. Frayed relations with the FAA threaten to result in fines or other penalties and the Securities and Exchange Commission also has an open investigation. Meanwhile, the Covid-19 pandemic has crushed the airline industry, prompting airlines to cancel orders for the Max and thwarting Boeing’s plans to quickly reverse its losses.
“It’s Boeing’s most important program and the United States’ most important manufactured product, but you couldn’t ask for a worse market right now,” Richard Aboulafia, aerospace analyst with Teal Group, said in an interview before the FAA’s move. “It’s not a question of opening the floodgates and watching the cash pour in the way it would’ve been a year ago.”
The FAA is requiring repairs to a safety system that went haywire in the two crashes and multiple other flaws discovered during months of reviews. It is also mandating new pilot training for the Max focusing on issues that arose in the accidents.
The actions are unlikely to quell controversy surrounding the plane. Family members of those killed in an Ethiopian Airlines crash on March 10, 2019, have repeatedly charged the plane is unsafe even with the fixes and it remains to be seen whether the public will be wary of its return.
The Max’s comeback will be gradual. It won’t be widely flown for several months as airlines must first train pilots, inspect jets emerging from long desert sojourns and complete the FAA-mandated repairs. Of the U.S. operators, only American Airlines Group Inc. has put the Max jets back into its schedule, with flights starting Dec. 29 on a lone route: Miami to New York.
Southwest Airlines Co. plans to put its entire pilot workforce through the new training before reintroducing the Max, delaying the return by months, Chairman Gary Kelly said Monday in an online interview with Aviation Week Network.
“It will be well into 2021 before we’re in revenue service,” Kelly said.
United Airlines Holdings Inc., the other U.S. carrier with the Max, expects to resume service in the first quarter.
In all, there are 72 of the planes in the U.S. and another 315 at airlines in the rest of the world. About 450 additional Max jets were built by Boeing but haven’t been delivered, amounting to billions of dollars in inventory that the company will soon be able to start turning into cash.
Foreign Regulators
The European Aviation Safety Agency has said that it is satisfied with the FAA-led review of the Max and is prepared to lift its ban soon. Canada and Brazil, which are also among the world’s leaders in aircraft certification, are also expected to take similar actions. At the insistence of EASA and Canada, Boeing is also working on longer-term fixes to improve the plane’s safety.
However, China, the first country to ground the jet, hasn’t given a clear timetable for its return.
The impact of the grounding has spread far beyond Boeing and is continuing.
The FAA, seen before the crashes as the preeminent aviation regulator, came under heavy criticism by other nations and Congress for its approval of the Max design. As a result of that and other reviews, the agency is in the process of adding layers of new oversight and requirements on planemakers it oversees, such as more thorough assessments of how pilots react during emergencies.
The U.S. House of Representatives on Tuesday passed a measure that would tighten FAA’s authority over employees at Boeing and other manufacturers who are deputized by the agency to sign off on designs, among other reforms. A Senate committee is considering a similar bill on Wednesday.
The 737 Max, an update of previous 737 models with more fuel-efficient engines, was grounded in the U.S. on March 13, 2019, three days after the Ethiopian plane went down.
Just as in an Oct. 29, 2018, crash on a Lion Air flight in the Java Sea near Jakarta, an automated flight-control feature known as Maneuvering Characteristics Augmentation System, or MCAS, activated during a malfunction. MCAS, which was designed to nudge the nose down in rare flight conditions, repeatedly dove the planes until pilots lost control.
Death Total
The two crashes killed 346 people. A diver working on the undersea wreckage near Indonesia also died.
Boeing and FAA have settled on several changes to MCAS to ensure it can’t cause another crash. The system will only activate once. If it is triggered, its ability to dive is limited so that pilots can still control the plane manually. And, instead of being activated by a single sensor, it will only function if two sensors agree it’s needed.
Pilots weren’t initially told that the system existed because Boeing concluded that they could easily disable it using an emergency procedure that had been in place for decades and was required to be memorized at some airlines.
However, the underlying sensor failure that triggered MCAS in both cases also prompted confusing additional warnings and loud alerts in the cockpit. The FAA and Boeing had issued instructions for how to handle such a failure after the first accident, yet the Ethiopian crew wasn’t able to do so.
Indonesian crash investigators and the U.S. National Transportation Safety Board concluded Boeing and the FAA were too quick to assume pilots would quickly recognize how to respond.
In addition to MCAS, the FAA is also requiring numerous other changes to the plane after a torturous review process that at times prompted tension between the planemaker and its overseer, as well as foreign regulators.
Flight Computers
Regulators required Boeing to complete a complex update to the Max’s flight-control computers so that they are more redundant. Changes were also mandated for the plane’s autopilot and wiring has to be rerouted to limit the risks it could cause a failure similar to what was seen in the crashes.
After rags and tools were found in many of the grounded aircraft, the FAA is also ordering inspections to look for such debris left behind during manufacturing. Partially as a result of lapses such as this, the FAA is using its own inspectors to sign off on the safety of newly built planes. It had been routine for Boeing employees to conduct such approvals.
Originally one of the chief selling points for the plane was that pilots trained to fly on the previous family of 737s, known as Next Generation, wouldn’t have to complete costly simulator training before transitioning to the Max.
Now, every pilot will have to undergo simulator training on the Max, including how to handle issues that arose during the crashes.
For Boeing, which faces at least $20 billion in Max-related costs, the crisis became one of the worst in the company’s century-long history.
Several senior executives were forced out, including former chief executive officer Dennis Muilenburg.
Air Travel
Now, with the collapse in air travel, airlines that had been clamoring for the more-efficient Boeing jets suddenly are fighting for survival and looking to postpone deliveries. Executives warned last month that the company will burn more cash than it generates until 2022 and that it will take at least a year beyond that to clear the mothballed Max out of its inventory.
“No one needs any jets for growth and the market is going to stay very soft for a number of years,” industry analyst Aboulafia said.
How consumers respond to the airplane is also uncertain. John Mowry, managing director with Alton Aviation Consultancy, said the company has begun to refer to the jet by its model number, such as the 737-8, more frequently in press releases — perhaps a sign that over time the Max brand will eventually go away.
“I don’t know if it will be some big, splashy rebranding or if the Max name will just slip into oblivion,” Mowry said in an interview prior to the FAA’s announcement.


fortune--2020-11-18--Pfizer, BioNTech plan filing as COVID trials show their vaccine is 95% effective

Pfizer Inc. said a final analysis of clinical-trial data showed its Covid-19 vaccine was 95% effective, paving the way for the company to apply for the first U.S. regulatory authorization for a coronavirus shot within days.
The U.S. drugmaker and partner BioNTech SE said their vaccine protected people of all ages and ethnicities, with no significant safety problems so far in a trial that includes almost 44,000 participants.
Pfizer shares rose 2.7% in premarket trading, with BioNTech American depositary receipts up 7.3%. European stocks extended their gains after the news, with the Stoxx Europe 600 up 0.4%
The update is the latest in a string of promising developments on the vaccine front in recent days. Moderna Inc.’s rival jab appears equally effective, judging from data published earlier this week, and a third contender, from AstraZeneca Plc and the University of Oxford, is expected to release trial results in coming days.
The Pfizer-BioNTech data shows 170 trial participants contracted Covid-19 overall. Eight participants who got the vaccine fell ill, while 162 cases were seen among those who got the placebo. The shot helped to prevent severe disease, according to the analysis, with nine of 10 severe cases in the trial occurring in the placebo group.
The vaccine’s efficacy in people older than 65 was more than 94%, the companies said.
Most people who received the shot tolerated it well. Severe fatigue was seen in 3.7% of volunteers after the second dose in the two-shot regimen, but that was the only severe side effect that occurred in more than 2% of people, according to the analysis.
Market Rally
Pfizer and BioNTech said last week that an initial readout showed the vaccine was more than 90% effective. The news helped spark a broad stock-market rally on hopes that the shot could help control a pandemic that has killed more than 1.3 million people worldwide.
On Monday, Moderna released its own promising results and said it expects to be able to apply for emergency authorization in the U.S. within weeks.
Pfizer and BioNTech plan to seek U.S. emergency authorization “within days,” according to the release. On Tuesday, Pfizer Chief Executive Officer Albert Bourla said at a conference that the companies had gathered the two-month safety follow-up data required by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration.
Both the Moderna and the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccines are based on messenger RNA, a new type of vaccine technology that is able to be deployed very quickly. It essentially transforms the body’s cells into tiny vaccine making machines. The vaccines instruct cells to make copies of the coronavirus spike protein, stimulating the production of protective antibodies.


fortune--2020-11-18--Facing an epic recession, Britain unveils its ‘green industrial revolution’ to jumpstart economy, cr

Facing an epic recession, Britain unveils its ‘green industrial revolution’ to jumpstart economy, create jobs

U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced a 12 billion-pound ($15.9 billion) plan to boost green industries and tackle climate change, in a blueprint he says will create or support as many as 250,000 jobs.
As he seeks to relaunch his premiership and revive the economy, Johnson aims to use his plan for a “green industrial revolution” to deliver on his pledge to invest in former industrial heartlands that voted for him at last year’s election.
Under the wide-ranging proposals, sales of new petrol and diesel cars will be banned from 2030, the government will back investment in electric vehicles, hydrogen, wind and nuclear power, and measures to make homes more energy efficient.
“Although this year has taken a very different path to the one we expected, I haven’t lost sight of our ambitious plans to level up across the country,” Johnson said in a statement released by his office. “My ten-point plan will create, support and protect hundreds of thousands of green jobs, whilst making strides towards net zero by 2050.”
Climate Summit
Britain is due to host next year’s COP26 global climate change summit in Scotland and has committed to a net zero carbon economy by 2050. The premier also intends to use his commitment to tackling climate change to help build a strong partnership with U.S. President-elect Joe Biden.
The most radical policy is perhaps the phasing out of diesel and gas car sales by 2030, 10 years earlier than previously scheduled. This puts the U.K. ahead of France and Spain, which have 2040 target dates, and in line with Ireland and the Netherlands. The only country with a more ambitious target for such a ban is Norway, with a date of 2025.
A U.K. government spokeswoman said the plan included at least 3 billion pounds of new government spending.
Johnson’s Ten-Point Plan
1. Offshore wind: Quadruple U.K. production to 40 gigawatts by 2030, supporting up to 60,000 jobs.
2. Hydrogen: Generate 5GW of low-carbon hydrogen production capacity by 2030. Develop the first town heated entirely by hydrogen by 2030.
3. Nuclear: Advance nuclear as clean energy source by developing large and smaller-scale plants, which could support 10,000 jobs.
4. Electric vehicles: End sale of new petrol and diesel cars by 2030, but allow sale of hybrid vehicles until 2035. Accelerate transition to electric vehicles.
5. Public transport, cycling and walking: Make cycling and walking more attractive, invest in zero-emission public transport.
6. Zero-emission planes and ships: Support “difficult-to-decarbonize” industries to become greener.
7. Homes and public buildings: Make these greener, warmer and more energy-efficient, creating 50,000 jobs by 2030.
8. Carbon capture: Remove 10 million tonnes of carbon dioxide by 2030.
9. Nature: Plant 30,000 hectares of trees every year.
10. Innovation and finance: Develop cutting-edge technologies and make the City of London a global center of green finance.
Landmark announcement
Greenpeace U.K.’s head of politics, Rebecca Newsom, welcomed the “landmark announcement” signaling the end for polluting cars and vans, as “a historic turning point” in addressing climate change.
“Although there are some significant question marks and gaps, overall this is a big step forward for tackling the climate emergency,” Newsom said.
Lord Nicholas Stern, Chair of the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment at the London School of Economics and Political Science, said the plan represents “a crucial next step” to a low carbon economy, but called for more spending to deliver it.
The government will invest 1.3 billion pounds on speeding up the roll-out of charging points for electric vehicles in residential streets, homes and highways in England, with 582 million pounds in grants to encourage consumers to buy zero or ultra-low emission vehicles.
Nearly 500 million pounds will be spent in the next four years to boost the production of electric vehicle batteries.
Cooking on Hydrogen
Government will spend as much as 500 million pounds on trial programs to test the use of hydrogen for heating and cooking at home.
Some 525 million pounds of state funding will go to help develop large and smaller-scale nuclear plants, and research and develop new advanced modular reactors.
Britain needs both small and large-scale nuclear technologies to meet its climate change commitments, according to the plan being drafted by officials. That could be good news for Electricite de France SA and its Sizewell C plant – the only project still in the development pipeline after Hitachi Ltd exited a development in Wales.
The government says it wants to see small-scale reactors built, too. Small modular reactors have been promoted by the nuclear industry as a way to blend steady atomic generation with intermittent renewable energy.
Nuclear Power
How Sizewell will be financed remains an open question with the government expected to draw a conclusion on its preferred financing model in the energy white paper before the end of the year.
The hydrogen target is in line with industry demands. RenewableUK had urged the government to set a target of 5GW of renewable electrolyser capacity by 2030, rising to 10GW by 2035.
Johnson announced new investment including an extra 200 million pounds on carbon capture, usage and storage technology, designed to catch carbon dioxide and bury it underground to stop it entering the atmosphere.
This will see two new carbon capture and storage “clusters” built by the middle of this decade, helping to support 50,000 jobs, potentially in parts of northeastern England where heavy industry has been in decline.
The opposition Labour Party said the government investment will not be enough.
“The funding in this long-awaited announcement doesn’t remotely meet the scale of what is needed to tackle the unemployment emergency and climate emergency we are facing, and pales in comparison to the tens of billions committed by France and Germany,” the party’s energy spokesman Ed Miliband said.


fortune--2020-11-18--The 2020 changes that will stick with us

This is the web version of CEO Daily. To get it delivered to your inbox, sign up here.
Good morning.
When the history of 2020 is written, it is likely to mark a turning point for business in many different ways. So much has changed—and while it is probably too soon to know which changes will last, a consensus is starting to emerge—as was evident yesterday at a series of CEO Leadership Roundtables Fortune held, in partnership with Genpact, Salesforce and Zuora.
Digital transformation has greatly accelerated. I’ve written this before, but I can’t write it enough. The most-heard line among CEOs across industries is some version of this comment yesterday from Genpact CEO Tiger Tyagarajan: “Our clients have done things in the last five or six months that they thought would take five or six years.”
Increased focus on employees, their health and well-being, and their racial diversity and inclusion, have become the new normal. “I’ve had more virtual fireside chats than I ever could have had in person,” says Mass Mutual CEO Roger Crandall. “Transparency is a huge lesson from the pandemic. Empathy is another.” “We talk about empathy a lot,” agrees Mark Hoplamazian, CEO of Hyatt. “Empathy has never been more important because everyone’s experience of COVID is so different.”
Climate change has risen on the priority list. The business interest in sustainability was on the rise before the pandemic hit, but it has only grown since. “We’ve seen an acceleration of concern around sustainability,” said Annette Clayton, CEO of Schneider Electric North America. “It’s driven by COVID, but not only COVID. We have had nine named hurricanes this year. We expect six more… We’ve seen customers who have to change their mindset when it comes to energy.”
The future of work is still under debate. Many people want to continue working from home, at least part time. But leaders like EY CEO Carmine Di Sibio say, “we need to get our people back together. It creates innovation…for younger people in particular. Younger people want to network. People in their fifties already have their networks.”
The challenge of reskilling is front of mind. “One of the great things coming out of the pandemic,” says Tyagarajan, “is a much stronger desire to do reskilling with technology that is readily available.” “We are all taking a look at our job requirements and asking what is really needed,” rather than just requiring a college degree. “That is opening up so many opportunities for so many different people.”
And finally, all the above point to the conclusion that stakeholder capitalism is on the rise. The increased attention to employees, to climate, and to creating better opportunities for workers who’ve been left behind by the technology revolution, are all signs that companies continue to move towards a broader view of their responsibilities to society.
Separately, go here for the inside skinny on Airbnb’s IPO, now likely next month. And if you are having heart problems—which still kills more people than COVID—check out Fortune and IBM Watson Health’s new list of the Top 50 Cardiovascular Hospitals. Other news below.
Alan Murray
@alansmurray
alan.murray@fortune.com
TOP NEWS
Delisting push
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission will by year-end propose a regulation that would force companies to delist from U.S. stock exchanges if they don't comply with the country's auditing rules. This is to do with China blocking U.S. regulators from reviewing audits of companies such as Alibaba and Baidu. Given the timing, it's likely that the new rule would need to be finalized under President-elect Joe Biden's new SEC leadership. Fortune
Roger Ferguson
TIAA CEO Roger Ferguson will retire in March, and the money manager's board has hired an executive search firm to find his replacement. The Wall Street Journal reports that Ferguson may end up leading the U.S. Treasury Department under the Biden administration. WSJ
Green U.K.
British Prime Minister Boris Johnson has set out his long-awaited green recovery plans in a Financial Times piece. "Imagine Britain when a Green Industrial Revolution has helped to level up the country," he enthused. "You cook breakfast using hydrogen power before getting in your electric car, having charged it overnight from batteries made in the Midlands." Crucially, the plans bring forward the cut-off date for sales of fossil-fuel vehicles from a French-style 2040 to 2030, in line with Germany and many other countries. Financial Times
Unilever plants
Unilever has set a target of €1 billion ($1.2 billion) per year for sales of its plant-based foods. So expect to see more dairy-free mayonnaise from Hellmann's and ice cream from Ben & jerry's, new Vegetarian Butcher products, and so on. The Anglo-Dutch giant also says it will halve food waste across its operations within the next five years. Guardian
AROUND THE WATER COOLER
Shelton vote
President Trump nominated Judy Shelton to the Federal Reserve, but it's looking increasingly unlikely she will get the seat. Yesterday, the Senate voted 50-47 against advancing her nomination by limiting debate. With Arizona Democrat Mark Kelly taking Republican Martha McSally's place after Thanksgiving, a renewed Shelton vote would probably need to take place next week. CNBC
Panasonic batteries
Panasonic is going to work with Norwegian energy company Equinor, and Norwegian industrial giant Norsk Hydro, on developing a lithium-ion battery business in the country. Panasonic is one of the world's biggest suppliers of electric-car batteries, with customers including Tesla and Toyota, but this seems to be about more than that. "We believe that battery storage will play an increasingly important role in bringing energy systems to net zero emissions," said Equinor business development chief Al Cook in a statement revealing the partnership. TechCrunch
Bitcoin march
Bitcoin broke through the $18,000 mark today, and is nearing the record level it achieved during the 2017 bubble. Here's eToro's Simon Peters: "It is not out of the question for the crypto to hit its all-time high of $20,000 this side of Christmas… The crypto industry has consolidated, matured and is seeing real traction with institutional investors. Investors are using bitcoin as an inflationary hedge to combat the prospect of continued government stimulus." Reuters
Health equity
Three core areas need addressing in order to reduce health disparities, write IBM's Kyu Rhee and Irene Dankwa-Mullan, and the American Heart Association's Eduardo Sanchez, in a piece for Fortune: teams, trust and technology. Fortune
This edition of CEO Daily was edited by David Meyer.


fortune--2020-11-18--Here are the most bullish trades for 2021—and, no, Bitcoin does not top the list

This is the web version of the Bull Sheet, Fortune’s no-BS daily newsletter on the markets. Sign up to receive it in your inbox here.
Good morning. Bitcoin bulls have pushed the crypto currency to a near three-year high in the past 24 hours. Meanwhile, on the equities front, Monday’s vaccine rally remains on pause as U.S. futures are mostly flat. They’re off their lows, however, following the mixed trade we’re seeing in Europe and Asia.
Stocks may be quiet this morning, but fund managers have never been more bullish. I dig into the findings of BofA’s latest survey of the portfolio pros, identifying where the money is flowing as we head into a new year. Hint: crypto is not predicted to be the top performer—not even close.
Let’s check in on the action.
Markets update
Asia
The major Asia indexes are mixed in afternoon trading with Japan’s Nikkei down 1.1% as the COVID situation worsens there.
are mixed in afternoon trading with Japan’s down as the COVID situation worsens there. In its final days, the Trump Administration is pushing ahead with plans to delist Chinese companies from U.S. stock exchanges . It’s not having much of an impact on Alibaba or Baidu shares; both are flat in pre-market trading.
is pushing ahead with plans to delist Chinese companies from . It’s not having much of an impact on Alibaba or Baidu shares; both are flat in pre-market trading. Per-capita income in China is soaring. It’s expected to jump nearly nine-fold by 2025, the IMF projects.
Europe
For a second straight day, the European bourses were lower at the open with the Europe Stoxx 600 totally flat 90 minutes into the trading session.
were lower at the open with the totally flat 90 minutes into the trading session. Good news for those of you who count shipping containers to measure the health of global trade : logistics giant Maersk on Wednesday reported a stronger-than-expected pickup in business in Q3, and has raised its guidance.
to measure the health of : logistics giant Maersk on Wednesday reported a in business in Q3, and has raised its guidance. And here’s a bit of good news for those of you looking to get away: Europe’s airlines and travel sites are seeing an upswing in bookings in recent days, coinciding with the latest progress on COVID-19 vaccine trials, suggesting some optimism in the year ahead from the jet set.
U.S.
U.S. futures are up a whisker. The small-cap Russell 2000 closed marginally higher on Tuesday, but the Big 3 all finished in the red as retailers such as Walmart and Home Depot led the way lower.
are up a whisker. The small-cap closed marginally higher on Tuesday, but the all finished in the red as retailers such as Walmart and Home Depot led the way lower. “We’re going into a difficult winter.” That’s how a Credit Suisse analyst summed up yesterday’s worse-than-expected retail sales number. Dark clouds are forming as the crucial Christmas shopping season approaches.
number. Dark clouds are forming as the crucial Christmas shopping season approaches. More retailers report today, including Target, Lowe’s and TJX Companies. You can follow our retail coverage here.
Shares in Boeing are trading 1.5% higher in pre-market trading ahead of decision day. The FAA appears set to give the 737 Max the green light later today to fly again.
Elsewhere
Gold is down, trading below $1,880/ounce .
is down, trading below . As is the dollar .
. Crude is flat with Brent trading around $44/barrel .
is flat with trading around . Bitcoin bulls are on the march. The crypto currency is trading above $18,000.
***
The “most bullish” take on 2021
Bank of America published yesterday its latest global fund manager survey, and the findings will cheer up all you bulls.
It’s the most impavid BofA report of the year. (Yes, I’m going to find every excuse I can to slip in the i-word; “impavid” is a perfectly cromulent synonym for “bullish,” I can hear that Simpsons character in my head say.)
According to fund managers polled by BofA, just about everything looks like a “buy” now.
“Bottom line,” writes Bank of America Securities chief investment strategist Michael Hartnett, it’s “the most bullish Fund Manager Survey (FMS) of 2020 on the back of vaccine, election, macro; Nov FMS shows a big drop in cash, 20-year high in GDP expectations, big jump in equity, small cap & EM exposure.”
This level of exuberance should come as little surprise. Usually, after an election cycle money flows back into the markets. That’s been the case every four years in the U.S. since the global financial crisis.
And, yet, the findings are still worth examining. Let’s zoom in on a couple of those points mentioned above.
First stop: growth. According to the survey participants, growth expectations are at a 20-year high.
And, dialing up EM—emerging markets—exposure is also a logical play as the dollar falls and more weakness is seen in the year ahead. In fact, emerging markets is viewed as the top out-performer for the year ahead, as the chart below shows.
Here’s what caught my eye: Check out oil, No. 3 on the list above, ahead of Bitcoin. Maybe there’s some generational bias at play there. But, still, crude is so beaten-down. It makes sense to think demand will inevitably rebound briskly, sending Brent and WTI higher in the year to come.
Expectations are also high for a bounce-back in corporate profits. They should be after this year’s bottom-line massacre for much of the S&P.
The vaccine news is triggering the biggest change in sentiment/strategy. Fund managers are seeing an “unambiguous rotation to EM, small cap, value, banks, funded by lower allocation to cash, bonds, staples.”
And that brings me to the most provocative line in the report: The “reopening rotation can continue in Q4, but we say ‘sell the vaccine’ in coming weeks/months as we think we’re close to ‘full bull.'”
Full bull? Is that even possible?
***
Have a nice day, everyone. I’ll see you here tomorrow.
Bernhard Warner
@BernhardWarner
Bernhard.Warner@Fortune.com
As always, you can write to bullsheet@fortune.com or reply to this email with suggestions and feedback.
Today's read
Buffett's COVID portfolio. The billionaire investor has all but abandoned bank stocks, and instead poured the spare cash into Big Pharma. According to Berkshire Hathaway's latest regulatory filing, these are the pharma stocks the Oracle of Omaha piled into last quarter, timing it well to the recent COVID vaccine news.
"A green recovery." Now's the time to plan for one, British PM Boris Johnson writes in the Financial Times this morning. Even as the country struggles to strike a suitable post-Brexit trade deal, the country now plans to recast the economy as a low-carbon champion in the decade ahead. The 10-point plan is long on wind, hydrogen, EVs, carbon-capture, green bonds and carbon offset pricing.
Some of these stories require a subscription to access. There is a discount offer for our loyal readers if you use this link to sign up. Thank you for supporting our journalism.
Market candy
114 billion
When the markets opened yesterday, Tesla soared to $460 a share, adding another $11 billion to the net wealth of founder Elon Musk. That put the 49-year-old's wealth at $114 billion. That's not tops on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index, but Musk is the biggest gainer this year, adding a cool $90 billion to his personal bottom line in 2020.


fortune--2020-11-18--The U.S. is pushing ahead with its threat to delist Chinese companies

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission is pushing ahead with a plan that threatens to kick Chinese companies off U.S. stock exchanges, setting up a late clash between Washington and Beijing as the Trump administration winds down.
By the end of this year, the SEC intends to propose a regulation that would lead to the delisting of companies for not complying with U.S. auditing rules, according to people familiar with the matter.
Agency officials have been moving quickly on a rule since August, when the President’s Working Group on Financial Markets — a regulatory council whose members include SEC Chairman Jay Clayton and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin — urged the regulator to pass new restrictions that could take effect as soon as 2022, said the people who asked not to be named in discussing private deliberations.
At issue is a problem that has vexed U.S. regulators for more than a decade: China’s refusal to let inspectors from the Public Company Accounting Oversight Board review audits of Alibaba Group Holding Ltd., Baidu Inc. and other firms that trade on American markets. The issue has gained added urgency due to rising tensions between the two countries and following this year’s high-profile accounting scandal at Luckin Coffee Inc.
The SEC move is unusual because most agencies stop issuing major new policies after a presidential election, especially when a new party is taking power. In addition, it’s unlikely the rule will be finalized before President Donald Trump’s term ends on Jan. 20. Clayton, who plans to step down by the end of the year, will also be gone before any regulation is finished. That would leave completing it to an SEC chief picked by President-elect Joe Biden.
By pushing through a vote, Clayton would force the SEC’s Republican and Democratic commissioners — all of whom have years left on their terms — to go on record in stating whether they support tougher rules for Chinese companies. Issuing a proposal also requires the SEC to seek public comment and investor advocates would be expected to flood the agency with letters backing Clayton’s plan.
Plus, unlike many policies in this era of heightened partisanship, cracking down on China appeals to both Republicans and Democrats on Capitol Hill. In May, the U.S. Senate approved a bill without opposition that directs the SEC to start the process of delisting Chinese companies whose audits aren’t inspected by American regulators. All of these factors could put pressure on Clayton’s Democratic successor.
The SEC declined to comment on the rulemaking plan. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index fell 0.9% Tuesday, compared with a 0.5% drop for the benchmark S&P 500 index. The gauge, which tracks Chinese companies listed in the U.S., closed at a record high at the end of last week.
Fang Xinghai, the vice chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, sounded a positive note on resolving the issue at panel discussion on Tuesday, saying it’s important to ensure that Chinese companies have access to international capital markets.
“I think during the Biden administration we should be able resolve that problem because it’s not an intractable problem,” Fang said at the New Economy Forum. “All it takes is good will on both sides and a willingness on both sides.”
Chinese stock listings have attracted Trump’s attention, as he ratchets up his attacks on China over the coronavirus pandemic and other grievances. Last week, he signed an order barring American investments in Chinese firms owned or controlled by the military. The SEC’s work on a proposal was reported earlier by the Wall Street Journal.
The fight over audit inspections dates back to the 2002 Sarbanes-Oxley Act, which overhauled regulation of public company audits after the collapses of Enron Corp. and WorldCom Inc. The law set up the PCAOB and required it to conduct regular inspections of the firms that review companies’ books. Though it applies to businesses across the world if they tap the U.S. markets — and more than 50 foreign jurisdictions permit the reviews — China has refused to comply, citing strict confidentiality rules.
U.S. and Chinese officials have repeatedly failed to come up with a compromise. In the meantime, Chinese companies have continued to go public via U.S. stock exchanges even though American law is being ignored. They’ve raised about $12 billion in IPOs this year, the highest since 2014 when Alibaba debuted.
The President’s Working Group report that’s driving SEC action recommended that exchanges such as the New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq establish enhanced standards to prevent the listing of companies that don’t adhere to U.S. rules. The report called on the SEC to pass new rules, but said they shouldn’t take effect until January 2022 to prevent market disruptions.
U.S. investors’ exposure to Chinese stocks is growing, according to the SEC. More than 150 of the country’s companies, with a combined value of $1.2 trillion, traded on American exchanges as of 2019.


fortune--2020-11-19--Why it’s hard to process 250,000 COVID deaths

In a seemingly interminable year of unfortunate news, the United States crossed another grim milestone on Wednesday: More than 250,000 Americans have now died from COVID-19.
That’s a quarter million dead friends, family, and neighbors amidst a pandemic that’s only gotten worse in the past few weeks. The general public is, understandably, oscillating through emotions. One day, we hear news of promising coronavirus vaccine studies from companies like Pfizer and Moderna; the next, we’re bombarded with the unfortunate realities of overrun hospitals, spiking COVID deaths, and newly implemented lockdowns.
It’s unrealistic to think that the cascade of chaos which has engulfed us for the past year won’t take its toll on our heads. But why is it that certain kinds of grief, in reaction to tragedy, strike us in such different ways? How does a feeling of constant unease and dread (like when a new virus decides to wreak havoc) differ from a shock incident such as a mass shooting or terrorist attack?
The reality is that there are many kinds of grief, but they tend to spring from the same roots. Sadness. Shock. Anger. Anxiety. Restlessness.
Way back in the innocent days of June, Dr. Katherine Shear, the founding director of Columbia University’s Center for Complicated Grief, put it bluntly in an interview with Wisconsin Public Radio: “Grief doesn’t occur in any kind of predictable way.”
A sudden shock of grief can elicit an unpredictable response. The specific response varies widely from person to person. It might be anger. It might be clinical depression. There could even be manic episodes. That’s just the nature of our emotional biology.
“Grief is such a powerful thing to the specific loss that you’ve had,” said Shear. “The steps for recovering aren’t orderly.”
What’s unique about pandemic-related grief, however, is that it’s both immensely personal and societally consuming. Americans have been prevented from visiting their elderly and sick relatives; funerals have had to be scaled back or canceled; seemingly healthy and young people have had to be ventilated for weeks as they grapple with coronavirus.
Then comes the deluge of constant discussion about the virus and its ripple effects across our lives, as well as the sobering realization that we just don’t know when it will all end.
Death lingers once we’ve lost a loved one. But it dissipates. “The presence of absence. That’s how you live after someone dies,” as Shear said during her radio interview.
She elaborated on what makes this particular moment so bizarre in an interview with Fortune.
“It’s very different from something like 9/11,” she says. “You can’t wrap your mind around 250,000 people dead.”
But the uncertainty is the real emotional killer, fueling the malaise. “We all continue to be at risk for death and loss, the two things we fear the most,” says Shear. “9/11 was traumatic, but it was over after a while. This is just ongoing, and it’s turned our lives upside down.”
This gets to one of Shear’s passion projects: The malady that is “prolonged grief disorder.”
It’s a condition being evaluated and likely to be made official, but in simple terms, it’s grief that’s debilitating over a long period of time. And it’s something Shear expects will get worse. In fact, she expects the percentage of people grappling with it will double from 10% to 20% as the pandemic continues, not just because of personal loss or existential guilt, but building anger in the midst of a hyper-politicized atmosphere.
“The persistent, pervasive yearning, longing, and sadness. An ongoing sense of disbelief,” says Shear. “A lot of times we have these thoughts but quickly correct them like on 9/11. You might say, ‘Why didn’t I tell my brother or sister not to go to work?’ But you won’t hang on to it because it doesn’t make sense. But it’s much harder to let go of not wearing a mask and not being able to be comforted by other people.”


fortune--2020-11-19--‘Wonder Woman’ will debut on same day in theaters and on HBO Max

Warner Bros.’s “Wonder Woman 1984,” the only big movie still scheduled to debut in theaters this year, will premiere on AT&T’s HBO Max the same day it appears in cinemas, an unusual approach that shows how much the coronavirus pandemic has upended Hollywood.
The film will premiere in U.S. theaters and HBO Max on Dec. 25, nine days after it starts appearing at cinemas in international markets, Warner Bros. said in a statement Wednesday. HBO Max subscribers will have a month to see the movie at no additional cost.
“We realize that a lot of consumers can’t go back to the movies due to the pandemic, so we also want to give them the option to see ‘Wonder Woman 1984’ via our HBO Max platform,” said Ann Sarnoff, chief executive officer of WarnerMedia Studios and Networks Group.
The film’s director, Patty Jenkins, confirmed the move earlier in a tweet, saying that fans should see the movie in theaters if it’s safe to do so — otherwise, they can enjoy it at home.
Releasing a would-be blockbuster like “Wonder Woman 1984” to home and theater audiences concurrently would have been unthinkable earlier this year, and for decades before that. However, the pandemic has made it impossible for studios to generate the kind of returns at the box office they need to recover their investments in big films.
Bloomberg earlier reported that theater and studio executives were negotiating an unusual release strategy for the film, in which it move online much more quickly than normal. Theater owners, which normally wouldn’t want a new movie made available to at-home audiences while it plays in cinemas, are being more flexible than normal, because almost all major new films have been delayed until 2021.
By giving Warner Bros. their blessing to distribute the movie online, they may have stopped the studio from delaying its premiere altogether until next year. In exchange, some theater executives expected to receive a one-off payment from Warner Bros., people familiar with the matter said.
The move could be a major boon for HBO Max. New WarnerMedia chief Jason Kilar is looking to accelerate subscriber growth at the streaming platform, a six-month-old competitor to Netflix Inc. An online release of a big DC Comics superhero movie is likely to fuel signups.


fortune--2020-11-19--Online lender Affirm joins year-end rush for IPOs

Affirm., which provides installment loans to online shoppers, filed for an initial public offering, reporting revenue gains and shrinking losses.
The San Francisco-based company in its filing Wednesday listed the size of the offering as $100 million, a placeholder that will likely change.
Affirm joins a class of consumer technology companies seeking to tap the public market before the year ends. Airbnb and DoorDash filed this month for IPOs, with filings still possible by other companies.
More than 6,500 merchants use Affirm’s platform, according to its prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. After selecting their purchases, shoppers can choose a schedule for paying for them at an annual interest rate of 0% to 30%, according to Affirm’s website.
For the third quarter, Affirm had a net loss of $15 million on revenue of $174 million, compared with a loss of $31 million on revenue of $88 million during the same period in 2019, according to its filing.
Affirm was founded in 2012 by Max Levchin, who also co-founded PayPal Holdings. Levchin is the company’s single biggest shareholder, according to the filing. Other large owners include Khosla Ventures, Founders Fund, Lightspeed Venture Partners, Jasmine Ventures and Shopify Inc. The company said its Class B shares will carry 15 votes each, while the Class A shares sold in the IPO will have one vote each.
The offering is being led by Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs Group and Allen & Co. Affirm plans to list its shares on the Nasdaq Global Select Market under the symbol AFRM.