latimes--2020-08-11--With Kamala Harris as Biden's VP pick, Newsom has a chance to appoint history-making senator

With California Sen. Kamala Harris now cemented as Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden ’ s running mate , Gov .
Gavin Newsom could soon face the politically perilous decision of whom to select as her replacement in the U.S. Senate .
The appointment promises to be one of the most consequential of his political career , both in California and in regard to any ambitions the Democratic governor may have for the White House .
And it puts him at risk of upsetting some of the most powerful forces within his party no matter what he decides .
During a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ inequities and injustices suffered by Black Americans , Newsom will face significant pressure to appoint a Black woman to replace Harris .
Harris is only the second Black woman in the nation ’ s history to serve in the U.S. Senate .
Conversely , an open seat would provide Newsom an opportunity to make history by appointing California ’ s first Latino senator .
Though Latino public officials have ascended to other positions of power in California over the last two decades , the state ’ s most coveted political prizes — its @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s office — have remained elusive .
“ There are so many factors that go into a decision like this for Newsom .
Fundamentally , it ’ s about his legacy , ” said Democratic strategist Rose Kapolczynski , who ran campaigns for former California Sen. Barbara Boxer for two decades .
“ At this moment in time , there is going to be a lot of pressure to appoint a person of color .
The dynamics may be somewhat different in November and December , but I don ’ t think @ @ @ @ @ @ @ going away.
” Democratic insiders and strategists interviewed by the Los Angeles Times provided their thoughts on those who might be in Newsom ’ s top tier .
They asked not to be identified in order to more freely discuss the merits of Harris ’ potential successors .
That list includes : Reps. Barbara Lee of Oakland , Katie Porter of Irvine and Karen Bass of Los Angeles , who was also short-listed as a possible vice presidential nominee for Biden .
Secretary of State Alex Padilla , a longtime political ally of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ top of the list , and Long Beach Mayor Robert Garcia appears to be gaining steam .
Newsom might reach back to his political roots in the Bay Area , a wellspring of political power that has produced California ’ s last three senators and the last two governors , by tapping Oakland Mayor Libby Schaaf or San Francisco Mayor London Breed .
The governor could also decide to shore up his support in Southern California by selecting Los Angeles County Supervisor Hilda Solis , who served as U.S. Labor Secretary during the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Garcetti , Rep. Adam Schiff of Burbank or state Senate President Pro Tem Toni Atkins of San Diego .
Or he could stick to a politician who recently won statewide office , evidence of the ability to defend the Senate seat when the post comes before California voters in the 2022 election .
Along with Padilla , that short list includes Lt. Gov .
Eleni Kounalakis , Atty .
Gen. Xavier Becerra , Controller Betty Yee and Treasurer Fiona Ma .
Picking a statewide-office holder would also give Newsom a twofer since he @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for the remainder of that person ’ s term in office .
Whomever Newsom selects would serve the balance of Harris ’ term in the Senate , which ends in January 2023 , if the governor decides not to call a special election .
A spokesman for Newsom also said the governor wouldn ’ t even consider the possibilities until after the November election .
“ It ’ s the furthest thing from his mind , ” said Nathan Click .
“ The governor is squarely focused on leading the state ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ this global pandemic.
” Padilla , a former Los Angeles City Council president and state senator , has been one of Newsom ’ s most loyal political allies over the past decade , and chaired Newsom ’ s ill-fated run for governor in 2010 .
The Massachusetts Institute of Technology graduate has for years been mentioned as a possible successor to Democratic Sen. Dianne Feinstein , who gave Padilla his first major break in politics when she hired him as a staff member .
Mindy Romero , director of the USC Center for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a top contender if Newsom filled any Senate vacancy — including one that could occur if Feinstein decided to retire before the end of her term in 2024 .
Not only has Padilla won two statewide races for secretary of state , he also is California ’ s top Latino elected official in a state with the largest Latino population in the U.S. About 30 % of California residents who are eligible to vote are Latino .
“ It would be incredibly significant , and I think he will be under pressure to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a long time coming in this state , ” Romero said .
“ It ’ s a blue state .
You put a Democratic senator in office and they do a good job , they will likely stay in office for decades .
In that way it ’ s like the Supreme Court.
” That wasn ’ t the case the last time a California governor made a Senate appointment .
Republican Gov .
Pete Wilson in 1991 chose little-known moderate Republican state Sen. John Seymour of Orange County to succeed him in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ when he was elected governor .
Wilson saw Seymour as an ideological reflection of himself and praised the legislator ’ s prodigious fundraising abilities .
A year after his appointment , however , Seymour was pummeled in the 1992 general election by Feinstein , who won by a 16-percentage-point margin .
The political landscape is even more treacherous today for the GOP .
The percentage of Republican registered voters in California declined from 37 % in 1992 to 24 % this year .
During that time , the percentage of Democrats dropped from @ @ @ @ @ @ @ forgoing any partisan affiliation and registering as “ no party preference ” or “ decline to state ” increased from 10 % in 1992 to 25 % this year , putting them ahead of the GOP .
No Republican has won a statewide election in California since 2006 .
State Sen. Holly Mitchell ( D-Los Angeles ) said she was hopeful that Harris ’ replacement in the Senate would be a woman , adding that women continue to be underrepresented in every level of government across the country .
Currently , women account @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of the U.S. Senate — only 57 women have ever served in the upper chamber .
Correcting that glaring inequity is essential for the wellbeing of all Americans , Mitchell said , because women elected to political office elevate the importance of issues such as workers ’ rights , child care , poverty and affordable housing .
“ People who are impacted by those issues seem to fare better when more women are in office , ” Mitchell said .
Mitchell said that , as a Black woman , Harris had also provided @ @ @ @ @ @ @ speaking out on pay equity , the tragedy of Black men and women dying at the hands of police , and adequate healthcare .
Mitchell hopes Newsom will replace that voice in the Senate .
For that and other reasons , Newsom would be hard pressed not to seriously consider Bass , who in recent months rocketed into national prominence as a potential vice presidential candidate .
Bass , head of the Congressional Black Caucus , is a seasoned legislator who served as speaker of the California Assembly before her election to the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ entering politics , Bass worked as a community organizer in Los Angeles in the 1980s and ’ 90s , joining a cauldron of activism that included young civil rights leaders who went on to become the heart of L.A. 's political establishment — including former L.A. Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa , L.A. County Supervisor Mark Ridley-Thomas and state Sen. Maria Elena Durazo .
“ Of course you would have to consider Congresswoman Bass , along with everyone else , ” Durazo said .
“ Gov .
Newsom would have an enormous pool of talent @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s no shortage , and that ’ s a great thing.
” Though not well known throughout most of the state , the mayor of Long Beach would also be a history-making pick for Newsom .
Garcia , 42 , who is the youngest mayor elected in Long Beach , is an immigrant from Peru and is gay .
He also was one of the most prominent Latino leaders in Southern California to endorse Newsom for governor during the 2018 race .

With California Sen. Kamala Harris now cemented as Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden’s running mate, Gov. Gavin Newsom could soon face the politically perilous decision of whom to select as her replacement in the U.S. Senate.
The appointment promises to be one of the most consequential of his political career, both in California and in regard to any ambitions the Democratic governor may have for the White House. And it puts him at risk of upsetting some of the most powerful forces within his party no matter what he decides.
During a time of national reflection over the pervasive inequities and injustices suffered by Black Americans, Newsom will face significant pressure to appoint a Black woman to replace Harris. Harris is only the second Black woman in the nation’s history to serve in the U.S. Senate.
Conversely, an open seat would provide Newsom an opportunity to make history by appointing California’s first Latino senator. Though Latino public officials have ascended to other positions of power in California over the last two decades, the state’s most coveted political prizes — its two U.S. Senate seats and the governor’s office — have remained elusive.
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Politics Kamala Harris is Joe Biden’s history-making pick for vice president Joe Biden has chosen California Sen. Kamala Harris as his running mate. She could be the first woman and first person of color to be vice president.
“There are so many factors that go into a decision like this for Newsom. Fundamentally, it’s about his legacy,” said Democratic strategist Rose Kapolczynski, who ran campaigns for former California Sen. Barbara Boxer for two decades. “At this moment in time, there is going to be a lot of pressure to appoint a person of color. The dynamics may be somewhat different in November and December, but I don’t think this national reckoning on racial justice is going away.”
Democratic insiders and strategists interviewed by the Los Angeles Times provided their thoughts on those who might be in Newsom’s top tier. They asked not to be identified in order to more freely discuss the merits of Harris’ potential successors.
That list includes: Reps. Barbara Lee of Oakland, Katie Porter of Irvine and Karen Bass of Los Angeles, who was also short-listed as a possible vice presidential nominee for Biden. Secretary of State Alex Padilla, a longtime political ally of the governor, also is at the top of the list, and Long Beach Mayor Robert Garcia appears to be gaining steam.
Newsom might reach back to his political roots in the Bay Area, a wellspring of political power that has produced California’s last three senators and the last two governors, by tapping Oakland Mayor Libby Schaaf or San Francisco Mayor London Breed. The governor could also decide to shore up his support in Southern California by selecting Los Angeles County Supervisor Hilda Solis, who served as U.S. Labor Secretary during the Obama administration, Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti, Rep. Adam Schiff of Burbank or state Senate President Pro Tem Toni Atkins of San Diego.
Or he could stick to a politician who recently won statewide office, evidence of the ability to defend the Senate seat when the post comes before California voters in the 2022 election. Along with Padilla, that short list includes Lt. Gov. Eleni Kounalakis, Atty. Gen. Xavier Becerra, Controller Betty Yee and Treasurer Fiona Ma. Picking a statewide-office holder would also give Newsom a twofer since he would then have to appoint a replacement for the remainder of that person’s term in office.
Whomever Newsom selects would serve the balance of Harris’ term in the Senate, which ends in January 2023, if the governor decides not to call a special election.
A spokesman for Newsom also said the governor wouldn’t even consider the possibilities until after the November election.
“It’s the furthest thing from his mind,” said Nathan Click. “The governor is squarely focused on leading the state’s response to COVID-19 and helping Californians during this global pandemic.”
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Padilla, a former Los Angeles City Council president and state senator, has been one of Newsom’s most loyal political allies over the past decade, and chaired Newsom’s ill-fated run for governor in 2010. The Massachusetts Institute of Technology graduate has for years been mentioned as a possible successor to Democratic Sen. Dianne Feinstein, who gave Padilla his first major break in politics when she hired him as a staff member.
Mindy Romero, director of the USC Center for Inclusive Democracy, said Padilla would be a top contender if Newsom filled any Senate vacancy — including one that could occur if Feinstein decided to retire before the end of her term in 2024. Not only has Padilla won two statewide races for secretary of state, he also is California’s top Latino elected official in a state with the largest Latino population in the U.S. About 30% of California residents who are eligible to vote are Latino.
“It would be incredibly significant, and I think he will be under pressure to appoint a Latino. It’s a long time coming in this state,” Romero said. “It’s a blue state. You put a Democratic senator in office and they do a good job, they will likely stay in office for decades. In that way it’s like the Supreme Court.”
That wasn’t the case the last time a California governor made a Senate appointment. Republican Gov. Pete Wilson in 1991 chose little-known moderate Republican state Sen. John Seymour of Orange County to succeed him in the U.S. Senate, which Wilson left when he was elected governor. Wilson saw Seymour as an ideological reflection of himself and praised the legislator’s prodigious fundraising abilities. A year after his appointment, however, Seymour was pummeled in the 1992 general election by Feinstein, who won by a 16-percentage-point margin.
The political landscape is even more treacherous today for the GOP. The percentage of Republican registered voters in California declined from 37% in 1992 to 24% this year. During that time, the percentage of Democrats dropped from 49% to 45%. Californians forgoing any partisan affiliation and registering as “no party preference” or “decline to state” increased from 10% in 1992 to 25% this year, putting them ahead of the GOP.
No Republican has won a statewide election in California since 2006.
State Sen. Holly Mitchell (D-Los Angeles) said she was hopeful that Harris’ replacement in the Senate would be a woman, adding that women continue to be underrepresented in every level of government across the country. Currently, women account for just 26 of the 100 members of the U.S. Senate — only 57 women have ever served in the upper chamber.
Politics The progressive Indian grandfather who inspired Kamala Harris With P.V. Gopalan, an upright civil servant and doting patriarch, Kamala Harris forged one of the defining relationships of her life.
Correcting that glaring inequity is essential for the wellbeing of all Americans, Mitchell said, because women elected to political office elevate the importance of issues such as workers’ rights, child care, poverty and affordable housing.
“People who are impacted by those issues seem to fare better when more women are in office,” Mitchell said.
Mitchell said that, as a Black woman, Harris had also provided an essential voice in the Senate, speaking out on pay equity, the tragedy of Black men and women dying at the hands of police, and adequate healthcare. Mitchell hopes Newsom will replace that voice in the Senate.
For that and other reasons, Newsom would be hard pressed not to seriously consider Bass, who in recent months rocketed into national prominence as a potential vice presidential candidate. Bass, head of the Congressional Black Caucus, is a seasoned legislator who served as speaker of the California Assembly before her election to the House of Representatives in 2010.
Before entering politics, Bass worked as a community organizer in Los Angeles in the 1980s and ’90s, joining a cauldron of activism that included young civil rights leaders who went on to become the heart of L.A.’s political establishment — including former L.A. Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, L.A. County Supervisor Mark Ridley-Thomas and state Sen. Maria Elena Durazo.
“Of course you would have to consider Congresswoman Bass, along with everyone else,” Durazo said. “Gov. Newsom would have an enormous pool of talent to pick from in California. There’s no shortage, and that’s a great thing.”
Though not well known throughout most of the state, the mayor of Long Beach would also be a history-making pick for Newsom. Garcia, 42, who is the youngest mayor elected in Long Beach, is an immigrant from Peru and is gay. He also was one of the most prominent Latino leaders in Southern California to endorse Newsom for governor during the 2018 race.
Times Staff Writer Jennifer Haberkorn contributed to this report.


latimes--2020-08-11--How has the COVID-19 pandemic affected your commute?

The pandemic has forced tens of thousands of workplaces to quickly adjust to remote work .
Will your employer keep @ @ @ @ @ place permanently ?
We want to hear from you .

The morning commute on the southbound 15 Freeway in Ontario was slightly busier May 8 than in previous weeks.
The pandemic has forced tens of thousands of workplaces to quickly adjust to remote work. Will your employer keep some of those changes in place permanently? We want to hear from you.


latimes--2020-08-11--Pew poll finds most Latinos haven't heard of 'Latinx.' Only 3% use the term

The term “ Latinx ” has been embraced by 3 % of Latinos in the United States , according to the first major poll on the topic by the nonpartisan Pew Research Center , which closely tracks “ Hispanic/Latino ” demographic and social trends .
The study , released Tuesday , also found that roughly three out of four Latinos in the U.S. hadn ’ t even heard of the term .
The Pew findings suggest that Latinx has a significant way to go before it enters fully generalized usage in the United States , despite its enthusiastic embrace at @ @ @ @ @ @ @ discourse , some news media outlets , and among recent presidential primary candidates such as Elizabeth Warren and Julián Castro .
Among those who had heard of Latinx , 33 % said it should be used to describe the Hispanic or Latino population , while 65 % said it should not be used .
Researchers also found that people in the United States still prefer to self-identify as “ Hispanic ” ( 61 % ) followed by “ Latino ” ( 29 % ) or their country of origin .
Pew interviewed 3,030 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 18 to 65 and older , in December 2019 .
The survey was conducted bilingually and was “ nationally representative , ” Pew said .
Latinx , which emerged online and in academia in the early 2000s , is the most recent attempt to rectify a perceived long-standing problem in Spanish-rooted words that appear in American English : the gendering of nouns that end in “ o ” ( masculine ) or “ a ” ( feminine ) .
Accepting “ Latino ” as the default term for a mixed-gender group of people @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and excludes people who are transgender or gender-nonconforming .
Previously , academics experimented with the textual use of “ Latin @ ” in an attempt to resolve the problem , which was pronounced as “ Latino/Latina.
” ( Latinx is pronounced as “ Latin-ex.
” ) Still others have advocated “ Latine ” as another gender-neutral alternative .
“ Identity terms come and go .
Hispanic is from the ’ 70s , Latino is from the ’ 90s , and Latinx is a more recent term , and it ’ s possible that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Mark Hugo Lopez , one of the authors of the study .
“ But one thing that is happening worldwide is a growing number of conversations around gender-neutral language , and we see similar movements here.
” Latinx grew in relative popularity only recently .
A Google Trends analysis found searches about Latinx rose after the 2016 , Fla. , where 49 people were killed in an attack targeting an LGBTQ Latin nightclub .
Nonetheless , searches of “ Latinx ” still trail considerably behind “ Latina , ” “ Latino ” and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Young Hispanics ( ages 18-29 ) were the most likely to have heard of Latinx , at 42 % , the study found .
Other subsets with more awareness of the term included the college-educated , those who are English-dominant and Democratic or Democratic-leaning respondents .
The lowest levels of awareness were found among the Spanish-dominant , those who are foreign-born , respondents who identify as Republicans and those with a high school diploma or less .
In interviews with respondents , Pew found that some felt Latinx is an unnecessary “ anglicism @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ not representative of the larger Latino community.
” Critics point out that there are contradictory exceptions throughout modern Spanish in which masculine or feminine nouns are inverted when paired with their definite articles ( “ the radio ” is “ la radio ” in Spanish not “ el radio , ” for example ; “ the water ” is “ el agua ” ) .
Awareness of “ Latinx ” does not necessarily translate to usage , Lopez said .
While the youngest Latinos were most likely to be aware of Latinx @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that age group actively use it , Pew found .
“ So while it ’ s rising in use , it is still relatively not well known , ” Lopez said .
“ Certainly the Hispanic population is very young .
Half the population is under the age of 30 , so this is a young population , and it is young people who are most aware of Latinx and are most likely to use it .
”

Demonstrators at a march for immigrants rights in downtown Los Angeles, May 2011. The youngest Latinos are most likely to use the term ‘Latinx’ to self-identify. Foreground: Maria Tellez, 74.
The term “Latinx” has been embraced by 3% of Latinos in the United States, according to the first major poll on the topic by the nonpartisan Pew Research Center, which closely tracks “Hispanic/Latino” demographic and social trends. The study, released Tuesday, also found that roughly three out of four Latinos in the U.S. hadn’t even heard of the term.
The Pew findings suggest that Latinx has a significant way to go before it enters fully generalized usage in the United States, despite its enthusiastic embrace at colleges and universities, in liberal corporate discourse, some news media outlets, Hollywood and among recent presidential primary candidates such as Elizabeth Warren and Julián Castro.
Among those who had heard of Latinx, 33% said it should be used to describe the Hispanic or Latino population, while 65% said it should not be used. Researchers also found that people in the United States still prefer to self-identify as “Hispanic” (61%) followed by “Latino” (29%) or their country of origin.
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Pew interviewed 3,030 U.S. Hispanic or Latino adults, ages 18 to 65 and older, in December 2019. The survey was conducted bilingually and was “nationally representative,” Pew said.
Latinx, which emerged online and in academia in the early 2000s, is the most recent attempt to rectify a perceived long-standing problem in Spanish-rooted words that appear in American English: the gendering of nouns that end in “o” (masculine) or “a” (feminine). Accepting “Latino” as the default term for a mixed-gender group of people reinforces patriarchy, Latinx proponents say, and excludes people who are transgender or gender-nonconforming.
Previously, academics experimented with the textual use of “Latin@” in an attempt to resolve the problem, which was pronounced as “Latino/Latina.” (Latinx is pronounced as “Latin-ex.”) Still others have advocated “Latine” as another gender-neutral alternative.
“Identity terms come and go. Hispanic is from the ’70s, Latino is from the ’90s, and Latinx is a more recent term, and it’s possible that its use could rise,” said Mark Hugo Lopez, one of the authors of the study. “But one thing that is happening worldwide is a growing number of conversations around gender-neutral language, and we see similar movements here.”
Latinx grew in relative popularity only recently. A Google Trends analysis found searches about Latinx rose after the 2016 Pulse shooting in Orlando , Fla., where 49 people were killed in an attack targeting an LGBTQ Latin nightclub. Nonetheless, searches of “Latinx” still trail considerably behind “Latina,” “Latino” and “Hispanic,” Pew found.
Young Hispanics (ages 18-29) were the most likely to have heard of Latinx, at 42%, the study found. Other subsets with more awareness of the term included the college-educated, those who are English-dominant and Democratic or Democratic-leaning respondents. The lowest levels of awareness were found among the Spanish-dominant, those who are foreign-born, respondents who identify as Republicans and those with a high school diploma or less.
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In interviews with respondents, Pew found that some felt Latinx is an unnecessary “anglicism” of the Spanish language, or “not representative of the larger Latino community.” Critics point out that there are contradictory exceptions throughout modern Spanish in which masculine or feminine nouns are inverted when paired with their definite articles (“the radio” is “la radio” in Spanish not “el radio,” for example; “the water” is “el agua”).
Awareness of “Latinx” does not necessarily translate to usage, Lopez said. While the youngest Latinos were most likely to be aware of Latinx, only 7% of respondents in that age group actively use it, Pew found.
“So while it’s rising in use, it is still relatively not well known,” Lopez said. “Certainly the Hispanic population is very young. Half the population is under the age of 30, so this is a young population, and it is young people who are most aware of Latinx and are most likely to use it.”


latimes--2020-08-11--Cow chase leads to helicopter rescue in Solano County

A couple was injured and had to be airlifted out of a Solano County park over the weekend after they fell while trying to hoof it from an ornery cow , authorities said .
The confrontation took place Sunday morning when two people came across a cow and a calf in Lynch Canyon Open Space Park , according to the California Highway Patrol .
“ They tried to go around the cow , but it charged them , ” officials wrote on Facebook .
Emergency personnel responded to the scene after the two fell while being chased by the bad-tempered @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on a trail , a CHP helicopter used its siren to shoo the cow away so a paramedic could approach .
The medic determined that the couple was injured and needed to be airlifted .
The helicopter then hoisted and flew them individually to the trail head , where emergency crews were waiting .
The two were then taken to a local hospital for treatment , according to the CHP .
The extent of their injuries was unclear , but video of the rescue showed they were alert and moving as the cow @ @ @ @ @ @ @ away .

A paramedic stands with a couple who were hurt while running from a cow in a Solano County park Sunday.
A couple was injured and had to be airlifted out of a Solano County park over the weekend after they fell while trying to hoof it from an ornery cow, authorities said.
The confrontation took place Sunday morning when two people came across a cow and a calf in Lynch Canyon Open Space Park, according to the California Highway Patrol.
“They tried to go around the cow, but it charged them,” officials wrote on Facebook.
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Emergency personnel responded to the scene after the two fell while being chased by the bad-tempered bovine.
After locating the unidentified couple on a trail, a CHP helicopter used its siren to shoo the cow away so a paramedic could approach.
The medic determined that the couple was injured and needed to be airlifted. The helicopter then hoisted and flew them individually to the trail head, where emergency crews were waiting.
The two were then taken to a local hospital for treatment, according to the CHP.
The extent of their injuries was unclear, but video of the rescue showed they were alert and moving as the cow bellowed at them from a few feet away.


latimes--2020-08-11--Child is first person in Orange County to contract West Nile virus this year

An Orange County child has tested positive for West Nile virus , becoming the county ’ s first confirmed human infection of the year , health officials said this week .
The child — whose name , age and city of residence were not disclosed — was hospitalized but is recovering , the Orange County Health Care Agency said Monday .
Officials said the child was diagnosed last week , but didn ’ t say how or when the youngster was believed to have been infected with the mosquito-borne disease .
“ West Nile virus is endemic in Orange County @ @ @ @ @ @ @ months and continuing into the fall , ” Dr. Clayton Chau , director of the Health Care Agency and acting county health officer , said in a statement .
“ The best way to avoid West Nile virus infection is to take precautionary measures to avoid mosquito bites.
” Mosquito samples collected in Anaheim , Cypress and Garden Grove tested positive for the virus last month , as did a dead bird recovered in Irvine .
Ten other human cases of West Nile virus have been confirmed statewide this year , according to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of Public Health .
Eight of those were in Stanislaus County , with the others in Los Angeles and Madera counties .
The virus , which was first identified in California in 2003 , is commonly transmitted to mosquitoes when they feed on infected birds .
The insects can then spread the disease to humans .
While the majority of people infected with West Nile virus don ’ t feel sick , about 1 in 5 will develop symptoms such as fever , nausea , fatigue and head or body aches .
In @ @ @ @ @ @ @ neck stiffness , severe headaches , confusion and muscle weakness or paralysis .
Officials recommend residents take precautions to avoid mosquito bites and eliminate areas where the bugs can breed .
Tips include emptying standing water sources , using appropriate insect repellents , wearing long-sleeved shirts and pants while outside and making sure door and window screens are secured .

An Orange County child has tested positive for West Nile virus, which is usually transmitted to humans by mosquitoes. Health officials said this week that the child is the county’s first confirmed human case of 2020.
An Orange County child has tested positive for West Nile virus, becoming the county’s first confirmed human infection of the year, health officials said this week.
The child — whose name, age and city of residence were not disclosed — was hospitalized but is recovering, the Orange County Health Care Agency said Monday.
Officials said the child was diagnosed last week, but didn’t say how or when the youngster was believed to have been infected with the mosquito-borne disease.
“West Nile virus is endemic in Orange County, recurring every year during the summer months and continuing into the fall,” Dr. Clayton Chau, director of the Health Care Agency and acting county health officer, said in a statement. “The best way to avoid West Nile virus infection is to take precautionary measures to avoid mosquito bites.”
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Mosquito samples collected in Anaheim, Cypress and Garden Grove tested positive for the virus last month, as did a dead bird recovered in Irvine.
Ten other human cases of West Nile virus have been confirmed statewide this year, according to the latest figures from the California Department of Public Health. Eight of those were in Stanislaus County, with the others in Los Angeles and Madera counties.
The virus, which was first identified in California in 2003, is commonly transmitted to mosquitoes when they feed on infected birds. The insects can then spread the disease to humans.
While the majority of people infected with West Nile virus don’t feel sick, about 1 in 5 will develop symptoms such as fever, nausea, fatigue and head or body aches. In more serious cases, patients can experience neck stiffness, severe headaches, confusion and muscle weakness or paralysis.
Officials recommend residents take precautions to avoid mosquito bites and eliminate areas where the bugs can breed. Tips include emptying standing water sources, using appropriate insect repellents, wearing long-sleeved shirts and pants while outside and making sure door and window screens are secured.


latimes--2020-08-11--Five injured in shooting at large Harbor Gateway warehouse party

A shooting at a large party in a warehouse in the Harbor Gateway area sent five people to a hospital early Tuesday morning , authorities said .
The incident occurred at 12:39 a.m. , according to the LAPD , when an assailant opened fire at the gathering in the 22900 block of Lockness Avenue , striking multiple people .
The gunman then fled in an unknown direction .
Five people — three women and two men , ranging in age from about 20 to 39 years old — were taken to a hospital , Los Angeles police Officer Norma Eisenman @ @ @ @ @ @ @ condition as of about 6:15 a.m. Eisenman said she could not confirm the extent or nature of their injuries .
She added that the shooting was believed to be gang-related .
The owner of the warehouse told KTLA-TV Channel 5 that he rented the space out for what he thought was a video shoot .
It was the second incident of gun violence at a large party in as many weeks .
One woman was killed and four other people were injured after shots were fired at a gathering at a home in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Tuesday .
That party , as well as a few others , have drawn headlines recently for being held in defiance of Los Angeles County ’ s COVID-19 public health order , which forbids gatherings or parties of any size , public or private .
Health officials have warned that crowds — particularly when people are clustered closely together indoors — increase the risk of spreading the coronavirus .
Last week , L.A. Mayor Eric Garcetti announced additional enforcement measures aimed at curbing large parties .
If Los Angeles police officers respond to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ occurring at a property , and there ’ s evidence that the venue has repeatedly engaged in such behavior , he said , the department will request that the city shut off water and power services to the property within 48 hours .
Police union leaders , however , have since come out against that plan , saying officers should not be involved with helping turn off utility services .

A shooting at a large party in a warehouse in the Harbor Gateway area sent five people to a hospital early Tuesday morning, authorities said.
The incident occurred at 12:39 a.m., according to the LAPD, when an assailant opened fire at the gathering in the 22900 block of Lockness Avenue, striking multiple people.
The gunman then fled in an unknown direction.
Five people — three women and two men, ranging in age from about 20 to 39 years old — were taken to a hospital, Los Angeles police Officer Norma Eisenman said. They were all in stable condition as of about 6:15 a.m.
Eisenman said she could not confirm the extent or nature of their injuries.
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She added that the shooting was believed to be gang-related.
The owner of the warehouse told KTLA-TV Channel 5 that he rented the space out for what he thought was a video shoot.
It was the second incident of gun violence at a large party in as many weeks. One woman was killed and four other people were injured after shots were fired at a gathering at a home in the 13200 block of Mulholland Drive last Tuesday.
That party, as well as a few others, have drawn headlines recently for being held in defiance of Los Angeles County’s COVID-19 public health order, which forbids gatherings or parties of any size, public or private.
Health officials have warned that crowds — particularly when people are clustered closely together indoors — increase the risk of spreading the coronavirus.
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Last week, L.A. Mayor Eric Garcetti announced additional enforcement measures aimed at curbing large parties. If Los Angeles police officers respond to and verify that a large party is occurring at a property, and there’s evidence that the venue has repeatedly engaged in such behavior, he said, the department will request that the city shut off water and power services to the property within 48 hours.
Police union leaders, however, have since come out against that plan, saying officers should not be involved with helping turn off utility services.
City News Service contributed to this report.


latimes--2020-08-11--Defund the LAPD? At this pace, it would take 20 years to hit Black Lives Matter's goal

For much of this year , activists across Los Angeles staged protests and flooded city meetings with angry phone calls , demanding that Mayor Eric Garcetti and the City Council zero out funding for the Police Department .
“ We want the dismantling of the LAPD entirely , ” filmmaker Carter Moon , 27 , said during one budget hearing .
“ We are working toward abolition , and every day you are just getting in our way.
” Council members ultimately cut the department ’ s budget by $ 150 million , slashing overtime pay and taking police staffing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Yet even with those reductions , LAPD spending will remain at roughly $ 3 billion , about the same as last year .
The department is still on track to consume 51 % of the city ’ s “ unrestricted ” revenue — taxes and other city funds the mayor and council can spend any way they want , according to budget analysts .
If city leaders continued cutting police spending by the same amount every year , Black Lives Matter-Los Angeles and their allies would not reach their target for defunding the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Times data analysis .
And because nearly one-fourth of police spending goes toward officers ’ pensions — a financial obligation of the city — such a goal may be legally impossible anyway .
Those data points serve as a backdrop for a series of virtual town hall meetings on “ re-imagining ” public safety at City Hall , which will begin this week .
As they respond to the demands for change that followed the death of George Floyd in Minneapolis , council President Nury Martinez and her colleagues have begun asking residents @ @ @ @ @ @ @ defund the police.
” Martinez and her colleagues voted last month to reduce the LAPD ’ s operating budget by 8 % .
But they did so only after Garcetti ’ s spending plan , which increased the department budget by 7 % , went into effect .
Activists say they ’ re encouraged to see the council exploring proposals for moving some duties , such as traffic enforcement , out of the LAPD and into other city agencies .
And they vowed to keep pressing City Hall to make deep cuts to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for other needs .
“ We ’ ve gotten to a place where divestment [ in the LAPD ] is officially on the table , ” said David Turner , a researcher for Black Lives Matter-L.A. , who helped collect the data for the People ’ s Budget , an alternative plan for city spending that would nearly eliminate LAPD funding .
Turner called the $ 150-million cut a “ step in the right direction.
” But Pete White , a longtime LAPD critic who heads the anti-poverty group Los Angeles Community Action @ @ @ @ @ @ @ as a distraction aimed at getting protesters off the streets .
“ The $ 150 million is nothing more than a political overture and a fig leaf , ” he said .
“ Do we want it ?
Yes .
Is it enough ?
No.
” In this year ’ s debate over racism , police brutality and public-safety spending at City Hall , progressive activists seized on a key statistic : Garcetti ’ s budget for 2020-21 devoted nearly 54 % of the city ’ s unrestricted revenue — money that can @ @ @ @ @ @ @ LAPD .
Grassroots organizers said the figure showed that city leaders had their priorities wrong .
They called for the money to be redirected to housing , healthcare and other services aimed at safeguarding residents ’ economic and emotional well-being .
The union that represents LAPD officers said such a move would spell disaster for the city , leading to more unsolved crimes and a major spike in violence .
They also criticized protesters for focusing on unrestricted revenue , noting that those funds represent only half of overall city spending .
Once @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the LAPD makes up less than a third of the city ’ s $ 10.5-billion budget , said Dustin DeRollo , spokesman for the Los Angeles Police Protective League .
To get a better understanding of the growth in police spending , The Times examined L.A. city budgets spanning 20 years and found that the LAPD ’ s share of unrestricted revenue did increase over that period , moving from more than 46 % to nearly 54 % .
The vast majority of that increase took place between 2005 and 2013 , when @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the council ’ s president , embarked on an expensive mission to expand the LAPD ’ s ranks .
When Villaraigosa took office in 2005 , crime was a front-burner issue .
L.A. experienced 489 homicides that year , almost twice the number recorded in 2019 .
On the campaign trail , Villaraigosa had hammered his opponent , then-Mayor James Hahn , for promising to hire 1,000 officers and falling far short .
Villaraigosa vowed to succeed where Hahn had not .
Former City Councilwoman Jan Perry , who represented part of South @ @ @ @ @ @ @ plan at the time .
During that period , she said , her district had been hit hard by gun violence .
Her office raised money to help pay for funerals and heard regularly from residents demanding a faster police response .
“ I got really angry about helping people after they ’ d been harmed and not helping them enough before they ’ d been harmed , ” she said .
Some of the loudest critics of the LAPD hiring initiative were not civil rights leaders but homeowner groups in more heavily @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Fernando Valley , who objected to the mayor ’ s plan to pay for the added personnel : hiking trash pickup fees .
When Villaraigosa took office , the city ’ s Bureau of Sanitation was spending $ 187 million per year to keep the trash bills of homeowners and small apartment buildings artificially low .
As a result , the sanitation agency was consuming 6 % of the city ’ s unrestricted funds .
The LAPD consumed 47 % .
Villaraigosa and the council tripled the trash fees , freeing up money @ @ @ @ @ @ @ more than 800 additional officers .
By the time he left office , the sanitation subsidies were gone , and the LAPD — employing 10,000 officers — was consuming about 54 % of the city ’ s unrestricted revenue .
But maintaining the larger police force came with trade-offs .
After the 2008 recession plunged the city into financial crisis , L.A. 's elected leaders reduced tree trimming , sidewalk repairs , library hours and firefighter staffing , even as the LAPD kept hiring .
They did so even though violent crime had @ @ @ @ @ @ @ peak in 1993 .
“ There was a collective fear that , without maintaining a commitment to a particular size of the [ LAPD ] , the crime that the city experienced in the ’ 90s and early 2000s would surface again , ” said Miguel Santana , the city ’ s top budget official at the time .
Many of the city ’ s programs were eventually restored .
But the economic downturn delivered huge losses to the city ’ s public-safety pension fund , leaving taxpayers to make up the difference @ @ @ @ @ @ @ devoted to LAPD pensions tripled during Villaraigosa ’ s tenure .
Garcetti has defended the LAPD hiring initiative in recent weeks , saying it was accompanied by an expansion of late-night youth programs and other community safety initiatives .
Those investments , taken together , saved thousands of lives , he said .
“ Some of us remember when we had open warfare on some of our streets , ” he said .
Akili , an organizer with Black Lives Matter-Los Angeles who goes by a single name , took the opposite view @ @ @ @ @ @ @ big mistake .
The LAPD expansion began when the department was pursuing a “ broken windows ” approach to public safety , aggressively enforcing misdemeanors , he said .
“ It resulted in over-policing , ” said Akili , who volunteered for Villaraigosa ’ s 2005 campaign .
“ And when you over-police us , you wind up arresting a lot more of us .
And you end up killing a lot more of us.
” Villaraigosa declined to comment .
When he was mayor , he repeatedly attributed the city ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s handling of public safety .
“ Growing our Police Department and ... community policing is a big reason why we are safer today , ” he told The Times in 2013 .
Still , some criminal justice experts caution against drawing a link between crime rates and the size of a particular law enforcement agency , saying the body of studies do not show a clear correlation .
New York City ’ s Police Department shrank by thousands of officers during the Great Recession yet still experienced major reductions in crime @ @ @ @ @ @ @ criminal justice at Sacred Heart University and a retired New York police officer .
“ Why does crime occur ?
There are a lot of reasons .
The police are a part of it .
The economy is part of it .
The demographics are part of it , ” McCabe said .
“ More cops equals less crime — it ’ s not that simple.
” What ’ s more important , McCabe said , is how officers are deployed .
Cities should be analyzing criminal data and other factors to determine @ @ @ @ @ @ @ said .
By 2013 , L.A. residents had lost their appetite for increasing the size of the LAPD .
City Controller Wendy Greuel ran for mayor that year on a plan to hire 2,000 additional officers , taking the force to 12,000 .
Garcetti denounced the idea as unrealistic and won the election .
Nevertheless , Garcetti kept sworn staffing above 10,000 and even expanded the LAPD ’ s operations , securing a contract to patrol L.A. 's buses and trains .
While Villaraigosa worked to keep a lid on police salaries , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of raises and bonuses , boosting the police budget even more .
That same year , L.A. voters rejected a sales-tax hike billed as a way of shielding the LAPD from budget cuts .
Low-income neighborhoods in South Los Angeles voted strongly in favor of the measure , while voters in the wealthier areas of the Westside and northwest Valley rejected it overwhelmingly .
Tyran Steward , a civil rights professor at Williams College , called those increases “ gross and reprehensible , ” particularly in light of how much crime had fallen @ @ @ @ @ @ @ have a commitment to a bloated police budget , again against the backdrop of a decline in crime , ” he said .
LAPD retirement costs have continued growing and are on track to consume $ 683 million of the budget this year .
Even if city leaders embrace the call to zero out police spending , they would be required to fund officers ’ pension benefits .
Turner , the Black Lives Matter researcher , said he would be interested in exploring whether the city can cut the pensions of police officers @ @ @ @ @ @ @ lawsuits against the city .
After all , his group has already broken through a major political barrier : persuading City Council members that police staffing is no longer untouchable .
Because of this year ’ s cuts , the LAPD is on track to have 9,757 officers by mid-2021 .
With the council ’ s latest cuts , the department ’ s operating budget is expected to decrease by 1.5 % compared to the prior year .

David Zahniser, Adam Elmahrek, Priya Krishnakumar

For much of this year, activists across Los Angeles staged protests and flooded city meetings with angry phone calls, demanding that Mayor Eric Garcetti and the City Council zero out funding for the Police Department.
“We want the dismantling of the LAPD entirely,” filmmaker Carter Moon, 27, said during one budget hearing. “We are working toward abolition, and every day you are just getting in our way.”
Council members ultimately cut the department’s budget by $150 million, slashing overtime pay and taking police staffing to its lowest level since 2008.
Yet even with those reductions, LAPD spending will remain at roughly $3 billion, about the same as last year. The department is still on track to consume 51% of the city’s “unrestricted” revenue — taxes and other city funds the mayor and council can spend any way they want, according to budget analysts.
If city leaders continued cutting police spending by the same amount every year, Black Lives Matter-Los Angeles and their allies would not reach their target for defunding the LAPD until 2040, according to a Times data analysis. And because nearly one-fourth of police spending goes toward officers’ pensions — a financial obligation of the city — such a goal may be legally impossible anyway.
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(Priya Krishnakumar)
Those data points serve as a backdrop for a series of virtual town hall meetings on “re-imagining” public safety at City Hall, which will begin this week. As they respond to the demands for change that followed the death of George Floyd in Minneapolis, council President Nury Martinez and her colleagues have begun asking residents in surveys to define the phrase “defund the police.”
Martinez and her colleagues voted last month to reduce the LAPD’s operating budget by 8%. But they did so only after Garcetti’s spending plan, which increased the department budget by 7%, went into effect.
Activists say they’re encouraged to see the council exploring proposals for moving some duties, such as traffic enforcement, out of the LAPD and into other city agencies. And they vowed to keep pressing City Hall to make deep cuts to the Police Department and use the money for other needs.
“We’ve gotten to a place where divestment [in the LAPD] is officially on the table,” said David Turner, a researcher for Black Lives Matter-L.A., who helped collect the data for the People’s Budget, an alternative plan for city spending that would nearly eliminate LAPD funding.
(Priya Krishnakumar)
Turner called the $150-million cut a “step in the right direction.” But Pete White, a longtime LAPD critic who heads the anti-poverty group Los Angeles Community Action Network, said he viewed the move as a distraction aimed at getting protesters off the streets.
“The $150 million is nothing more than a political overture and a fig leaf,” he said. “Do we want it? Yes. Is it enough? No.”
***
In this year’s debate over racism, police brutality and public-safety spending at City Hall, progressive activists seized on a key statistic: Garcetti’s budget for 2020-21 devoted nearly 54% of the city’s unrestricted revenue — money that can go toward any program — to the LAPD.
Grassroots organizers said the figure showed that city leaders had their priorities wrong. They called for the money to be redirected to housing, healthcare and other services aimed at safeguarding residents’ economic and emotional well-being.
(Priya Krishnakumar)
The union that represents LAPD officers said such a move would spell disaster for the city, leading to more unsolved crimes and a major spike in violence. They also criticized protesters for focusing on unrestricted revenue, noting that those funds represent only half of overall city spending.
Once every city program is accounted for, the LAPD makes up less than a third of the city’s $10.5-billion budget, said Dustin DeRollo, spokesman for the Los Angeles Police Protective League.
To get a better understanding of the growth in police spending, The Times examined L.A. city budgets spanning 20 years and found that the LAPD’s share of unrestricted revenue did increase over that period, moving from more than 46% to nearly 54%.
The vast majority of that increase took place between 2005 and 2013, when Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa and Garcetti, then the council’s president, embarked on an expensive mission to expand the LAPD’s ranks.
When Villaraigosa took office in 2005, crime was a front-burner issue. L.A. experienced 489 homicides that year, almost twice the number recorded in 2019.
On the campaign trail, Villaraigosa had hammered his opponent, then-Mayor James Hahn, for promising to hire 1,000 officers and falling far short. Villaraigosa vowed to succeed where Hahn had not.
Former City Councilwoman Jan Perry, who represented part of South Los Angeles, supported the LAPD hiring plan at the time. During that period, she said, her district had been hit hard by gun violence. Her office raised money to help pay for funerals and heard regularly from residents demanding a faster police response.
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“I got really angry about helping people after they’d been harmed and not helping them enough before they’d been harmed,” she said.
Former City Councilwoman Jan Perry said her South Los Angeles district had been hit hard by gun violence in 2006, when the city began expanding the size of the LAPD. (Lawrence K. Ho / Los Angeles Times)
Some of the loudest critics of the LAPD hiring initiative were not civil rights leaders but homeowner groups in more heavily white sections of the Westside and San Fernando Valley, who objected to the mayor’s plan to pay for the added personnel: hiking trash pickup fees.
When Villaraigosa took office, the city’s Bureau of Sanitation was spending $187 million per year to keep the trash bills of homeowners and small apartment buildings artificially low. As a result, the sanitation agency was consuming 6% of the city’s unrestricted funds. The LAPD consumed 47%.
Villaraigosa and the council tripled the trash fees, freeing up money for the city budget, and hired more than 800 additional officers. By the time he left office, the sanitation subsidies were gone, and the LAPD — employing 10,000 officers — was consuming about 54% of the city’s unrestricted revenue.
But maintaining the larger police force came with trade-offs. After the 2008 recession plunged the city into financial crisis, L.A.’s elected leaders reduced tree trimming, sidewalk repairs, library hours and firefighter staffing, even as the LAPD kept hiring. They did so even though violent crime had plummeted more than 70% from its peak in 1993.
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“There was a collective fear that, without maintaining a commitment to a particular size of the [LAPD], the crime that the city experienced in the ’90s and early 2000s would surface again,” said Miguel Santana, the city’s top budget official at the time.
Many of the city’s programs were eventually restored. But the economic downturn delivered huge losses to the city’s public-safety pension fund, leaving taxpayers to make up the difference. The share of the city budget devoted to LAPD pensions tripled during Villaraigosa’s tenure.
Garcetti has defended the LAPD hiring initiative in recent weeks, saying it was accompanied by an expansion of late-night youth programs and other community safety initiatives. Those investments, taken together, saved thousands of lives, he said.
“Some of us remember when we had open warfare on some of our streets,” he said.
Demonstrators with Black Lives Matter protested outside Los Angeles Police Department headquarters in May. (Gina Ferazzi / Los Angeles Times)
Akili, an organizer with Black Lives Matter-Los Angeles who goes by a single name, took the opposite view, calling the police hiring initiative a big mistake. The LAPD expansion began when the department was pursuing a “broken windows” approach to public safety, aggressively enforcing misdemeanors, he said.
Advertisement
“It resulted in over-policing,” said Akili, who volunteered for Villaraigosa’s 2005 campaign. “And when you over-police us, you wind up arresting a lot more of us. And you end up killing a lot more of us.”
Villaraigosa declined to comment. When he was mayor, he repeatedly attributed the city’s huge drop in crime to his administration’s handling of public safety. “Growing our Police Department and ... community policing is a big reason why we are safer today,” he told The Times in 2013.
Still, some criminal justice experts caution against drawing a link between crime rates and the size of a particular law enforcement agency, saying the body of studies do not show a clear correlation.
New York City’s Police Department shrank by thousands of officers during the Great Recession yet still experienced major reductions in crime, said James McCabe, professor of criminal justice at Sacred Heart University and a retired New York police officer.
“Why does crime occur? There are a lot of reasons. The police are a part of it. The economy is part of it. The demographics are part of it,” McCabe said. “More cops equals less crime — it’s not that simple.”
What’s more important, McCabe said, is how officers are deployed. Cities should be analyzing criminal data and other factors to determine how many officers they need, he said.
Advertisement
***
By 2013, L.A. residents had lost their appetite for increasing the size of the LAPD. City Controller Wendy Greuel ran for mayor that year on a plan to hire 2,000 additional officers, taking the force to 12,000. Garcetti denounced the idea as unrealistic and won the election.
In 2013, mayoral candidate Wendy Greuel called for the hiring of 2,000 additional police officers. Her opponent, Eric Garcetti, called the plan unrealistic and won the election. (Katie Falkenberg / Los Angeles Times)
That same year, L.A. voters rejected a sales-tax hike billed as a way of shielding the LAPD from budget cuts. Low-income neighborhoods in South Los Angeles voted strongly in favor of the measure, while voters in the wealthier areas of the Westside and northwest Valley rejected it overwhelmingly.
Nevertheless, Garcetti kept sworn staffing above 10,000 and even expanded the LAPD’s operations, securing a contract to patrol L.A.’s buses and trains. While Villaraigosa worked to keep a lid on police salaries, Garcetti as mayor backed an expensive package of raises and bonuses, boosting the police budget even more.
Tyran Steward, a civil rights professor at Williams College, called those increases “gross and reprehensible,” particularly in light of how much crime had fallen over 30 years. “You still have a commitment to a bloated police budget, again against the backdrop of a decline in crime,” he said.
(Priya Krishnakumar)
LAPD retirement costs have continued growing and are on track to consume $683 million of the budget this year. Even if city leaders embrace the call to zero out police spending, they would be required to fund officers’ pension benefits.
Turner, the Black Lives Matter researcher, said he would be interested in exploring whether the city can cut the pensions of police officers who engage in misconduct that results in lawsuits against the city. After all, his group has already broken through a major political barrier: persuading City Council members that police staffing is no longer untouchable.
Because of this year’s cuts, the LAPD is on track to have 9,757 officers by mid-2021. With the council’s latest cuts, the department’s operating budget is expected to decrease by 1.5% compared to the prior year.
Times Staff Writer Dakota Smith contributed to this report.


latimes--2020-08-11--Google adds California's earthquake early warning system into Android phones

Google is adding California ’ s earthquake early warning system as part of its Android operating system for mobile phones , the company said Tuesday .
The feature means that the state ’ s earthquake early warnings will be piped into phones using the Android system without the need to download a separate app .
Gov .
Gavin Newsom welcomed the addition of the feature , which relies on technology managed by the U.S. Geological Survey .
“ It ’ s not every day that Silicon Valley looks to state government for ... innovation , but that ’ s exactly @ @ @ @ @ @ @ said in a statement .
“ This announcement means that California ’ s world-class earthquake early warning system will be a standard function on every Android phone — giving millions precious seconds to drop , cover and hold on when the Big One hits.
” Earthquake early warnings can also be accessed on Apple ’ s iOS system and the Android system through apps such as MyShake , developed by UC Berkeley ; Early Warning Labs ’ QuakeAlertUSA app ; and , for L.A. County residents , ShakeAlertLA , developed by the city @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are also sent by text message using the Wireless Emergency Alert system , which offer warnings through Amber Alert-style text messages .
But they can be slower than the apps .
The earthquake early warning system works on a simple principle : The shaking from an earthquake travels at the speed of sound through rock — slower than the speed of today ’ s communications systems .
For example , it would take more than a minute for a magnitude 7.8 earthquake that started at the Salton Sea to shake Los Angeles , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ state ’ s longest fault , the San Andreas .
Other including Japan , Mexico , Taiwan and Turkey , already have operational systems .
In Japan , the early warnings are a part of life : Schoolchildren are trained to drop , cover and hold on when they hear alerts ; TV shows are interrupted by a familiar chime and an announcer who provides details of the expected shaking ; and cellphones automatically broadcast audible alerts .
Earthquakes need to be at least a magnitude 4.5 for the USGS ’ ShakeAlert system @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that are seeing at least weak shaking , or intensity level 3 , on the Modified Mercalli Intensity Scale .
Level 3 shaking on the is defined as being felt quite noticeably by people indoors , especially on upper floors of a building , and can cause standing motor vehicles to slightly rock .
Some might think the shaking is resulting from the vibrations felt when a heavy truck passes .
Institutions across California have launched earthquake early warning systems that rely on the USGS ’ ShakeAlert system , including the BART commuter @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the Los Angeles County Metropolitan Transportation Authority that are designed to slow trains before shaking arrives ; public address systems in some buildings , such as and a in Marina del Rey , are wired to warn residents of incoming shaking through a public address system .
Such a system has been installed by Early Warning Labs at Cedars-Sinai Medical Center , where an audible alert is programmed to go out in advance of shaking , saying , “ Earthquake , earthquake .
Expect shaking .
Drop , cover and hold on .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ been trained on how to react to the alerts , and staff have gone through drills .

Javaid Waseem surveys the damage done at his Ridgecrest gas station by the July 5, 2019, earthquake in the Ridgecrest area.
Google is adding California’s earthquake early warning system as part of its Android operating system for mobile phones, the company said Tuesday.
The feature means that the state’s earthquake early warnings will be piped into phones using the Android system without the need to download a separate app.
Gov. Gavin Newsom welcomed the addition of the feature, which relies on technology managed by the U.S. Geological Survey.
Advertisement
“It’s not every day that Silicon Valley looks to state government for ... innovation, but that’s exactly what is happening today,” Newsom said in a statement. “This announcement means that California’s world-class earthquake early warning system will be a standard function on every Android phone — giving millions precious seconds to drop, cover and hold on when the Big One hits.”
Earthquake early warnings can also be accessed on Apple’s iOS system and the Android system through apps such as MyShake, developed by UC Berkeley; Early Warning Labs’ QuakeAlertUSA app; and, for L.A. County residents, ShakeAlertLA, developed by the city of Los Angeles.
Earthquake early warnings are also sent by text message using the Wireless Emergency Alert system, which offer warnings through Amber Alert-style text messages. But they can be slower than the apps.
The earthquake early warning system works on a simple principle: The shaking from an earthquake travels at the speed of sound through rock — slower than the speed of today’s communications systems. For example, it would take more than a minute for a magnitude 7.8 earthquake that started at the Salton Sea to shake Los Angeles, 150 miles away, traveling along the state’s longest fault, the San Andreas.
Other nations, including Japan, Mexico, Taiwan and Turkey, already have operational systems. In Japan, the early warnings are a part of life: Schoolchildren are trained to drop, cover and hold on when they hear alerts; TV shows are interrupted by a familiar chime and an announcer who provides details of the expected shaking; and cellphones automatically broadcast audible alerts.
Advertisement
Earthquakes need to be at least a magnitude 4.5 for the USGS’ ShakeAlert system to consider send out warnings to devices that are seeing at least weak shaking, or intensity level 3, on the Modified Mercalli Intensity Scale.
Level 3 shaking on the Modified Mercalli Intensity Scale is defined as being felt quite noticeably by people indoors, especially on upper floors of a building, and can cause standing motor vehicles to slightly rock. Some might think the shaking is resulting from the vibrations felt when a heavy truck passes.
Institutions across California have launched earthquake early warning systems that rely on the USGS’ ShakeAlert system, including the BART commuter rail system in the Bay Area and the Los Angeles County Metropolitan Transportation Authority that are designed to slow trains before shaking arrives; public address systems in some buildings, such as L.A. City Hall and a 19-story condo tower in Marina del Rey, are wired to warn residents of incoming shaking through a public address system.
Such a system has been installed by Early Warning Labs at Cedars-Sinai Medical Center, where an audible alert is programmed to go out in advance of shaking, saying, “Earthquake, earthquake. Expect shaking. Drop, cover and hold on. Protect yourself now.”
Hospital staff have been trained on how to react to the alerts, and staff have gone through drills.


latimes--2020-08-11--Amid COVID-19 pandemic, people with diabetes struggle to get insulin

For Adam Winney , a 26-year old with Type 1 diabetes , grocery shopping during the early days of a pandemic was an infuriating task .
Everything was sold out , except for the one type of food he couldn ’ t eat .
” The only things left were carbs , carbs , carbs , ” the Van Nuys resident said .
“ I ’ ve never been more furious than back in March.
” Winney ’ s disease has deprived his body of insulin , a hormone that ’ s needed to turn the sugar in carbohydrates into @ @ @ @ @ @ @ sugar can spike to dangerous levels , eventually leading to serious health problems like cardiovascular disease , nerve damage and kidney failure .
But the insulin pens he relies on to keep his body in balance cost him upwards of $ 1,000 a month , since his health insurance doesn ’ t cover the medication .
After the coronavirus outbreak cost him his job as a receptionist at a hair salon , that expense was beyond his reach .
He went six weeks without the long-acting insulin he usually takes every day .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ , ” he said , a sign that his body was susceptible to diabetic ketoacidosis , a state of dangerously high blood sugar levels that has landed him in the hospital before .
“ Your body just falls apart.
” COVID-19 presents a unique set of challenges to the roughly 34 million Americans like Winney who are living with diabetes .
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention says people with Type 1 diabetes are probably more susceptible to a severe case of COVID-19 .
Those with Type 2 diabetes — the more @ @ @ @ @ @ @ their sensitivity to insulin — are definitely at increased risk of severe COVID-19 , according to the CDC .
For instance , a study of more than 7,300 COVID-19 patients in China found that those with Type 2 diabetes needed more medical care and were nearly 50 % more likely to die than patients without diabetes .
The risk of death was especially high for people who had trouble controlling their blood sugar , researchers reported .
Another study of more than 1,200 COVID-19 patients in the U.S. found that the mortality rate @ @ @ @ @ @ @ sugar was 29 % , compared with 6 % for those without diabetes .
“ The extent to which you control your diabetes is a risk factor , ” said Dr. Daniel Drucker , a senior scientist at the Lunenfeld-Tanenbaum Research Institute at the University of Toronto .
“ There ’ s a lot we can do about that , by making sure that your diabetes is optimally controlled.
” Insulin is essential for keeping blood sugar in check , but the pricey medicine is harder to get if a job disappears , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ with it .
The cost of insulin varies from patient to patient .
It depends on the type of insulin they need — some take effect within 15 minutes ; others last more than a day — as well as the dose .
Some insurance plans pick up more of the tab than others .
The financial strain brought on by the pandemic has forced Royce Jonathan Miller of Yuba City to consider rationing the insulin he takes for Type 1 diabetes .
He has kept his job as an optician at Walmart @ @ @ @ @ @ @ job at a maintenance company that closed operations due to the pandemic , Miller has become the sole provider for the four people in his household .
Miller has an insulin pump , which uses a tube to infuse a small amount of insulin under the skin so it can be absorbed into the bloodstream .
He is supposed to change out the pieces that connect to his body every three days .
Lately , he ’ s been wondering if that ’ s absolutely necessary .
“ I ’ m starting to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ up for two cycles , every six days , and hopefully it doesn ’ t get infected , ’ ” Miller said .
“ But I do realize that if I am to make myself sick and wind up in the hospital , that will be a bigger burden.
” A nationwide survey of 5,000 people with diabetes conducted for the American Diabetes Assn .
found that one in four have rationed supplies to cut the cost of their diabetes care since the start of the pandemic .
“ Now is not the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ individuals manage their disease , because it may in fact be helpful in preventing them from getting severe COVID-19 , ” Drucker said .
People with Type 2 diabetes may face even greater hardship in affording their insulin , said Dr. Francisco Prieto , a family health physician in Sacramento .
“ Not everyone who has Type 2 has to take insulin , ” Prieto said .
“ Those who do are typically folks who either have the most severe cases of diabetes or have failed all the previous oral and injectable treatments.
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ take even more insulin on a daily basis than Type 1 patients , he said .
Since 2019 , 11 states have set limits on the amount insurance companies can set as co-payments for insulin .
Each of those states has enacted price caps ranging from $ 25 to $ 100 per month since the coronavirus outbreak took off in March .
California may soon join the list .
In February , Assemblyman Adrin Nazarian ( D-North Hollywood ) introduced a bill that would cap insulin co-pays at $ 50 for a 30-day @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
It passed in June by a 64-4-11 vote , but the Senate Health Committee has not scheduled a hearing that would allow the bill to move forward .
Winney said a price cap would give him some peace of mind .
These days he relies on free samples provided by one of his doctors , but that generosity may not last .
“ I see that as an incentive to finally change insurance , ” he said .
Ensuring an affordable supply of insulin would help people with diabetes manage their disease @ @ @ @ @ @ @ stay-at-home mom in Lakewood with Type 1 diabetes .
She has good coverage now through her husband ’ s health insurance plan , but when she was between plans three years ago , she began skipping insulin doses to make her supply last longer .
On several occasions , her blood sugar levels rose dangerously high , and she ended up in the emergency room .
“ It ’ s really stressful , ” she said of managing diabetes during a pandemic .
“ And that doesn ’ t help your blood sugar.
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ are rationing their insulin when they need it most points to larger problems with healthcare access in this country , Drucker said .
“ COVID-19 is reminding us of the importance of doing everything we can in our vulnerable , at-risk populations , ” he said .
“ Let ’ s do everything we can to optimize their health because that may , in turn , reduce their risk of having a bad outcome with this virus .
”

Diabetes patient Adam Winney with sample vials of insulin he is getting from his doctor. One vial lasts him about three weeks.
For Adam Winney, a 26-year old with Type 1 diabetes, grocery shopping during the early days of a pandemic was an infuriating task. Everything was sold out, except for the one type of food he couldn’t eat.
”The only things left were carbs, carbs, carbs,” the Van Nuys resident said. “I’ve never been more furious than back in March.”
For the record: A previous version of this story said an insulin pump delivers insulin to the pancreas of a person with Type 1 diabetes. The pump actually infuses the insulin under the skin so it can be absorbed into the bloodstream.
Winney’s disease has deprived his body of insulin, a hormone that’s needed to turn the sugar in carbohydrates into energy. Without it, his blood sugar can spike to dangerous levels, eventually leading to serious health problems like cardiovascular disease, nerve damage and kidney failure.
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But the insulin pens he relies on to keep his body in balance cost him upwards of $1,000 a month, since his health insurance doesn’t cover the medication. After the coronavirus outbreak cost him his job as a receptionist at a hair salon, that expense was beyond his reach. He went six weeks without the long-acting insulin he usually takes every day.
“I was fighting nausea every morning,” he said, a sign that his body was susceptible to diabetic ketoacidosis, a state of dangerously high blood sugar levels that has landed him in the hospital before. “Your body just falls apart.”
COVID-19 presents a unique set of challenges to the roughly 34 million Americans like Winney who are living with diabetes.
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention says people with Type 1 diabetes are probably more susceptible to a severe case of COVID-19. Those with Type 2 diabetes — the more common form that begins when people lose their sensitivity to insulin — are definitely at increased risk of severe COVID-19, according to the CDC.
For instance, a study of more than 7,300 COVID-19 patients in China found that those with Type 2 diabetes needed more medical care and were nearly 50% more likely to die than patients without diabetes. The risk of death was especially high for people who had trouble controlling their blood sugar, researchers reported. Another study of more than 1,200 COVID-19 patients in the U.S. found that the mortality rate for those with diabetes or high blood sugar was 29%, compared with 6% for those without diabetes.
“The extent to which you control your diabetes is a risk factor,” said Dr. Daniel Drucker, a senior scientist at the Lunenfeld-Tanenbaum Research Institute at the University of Toronto. “There’s a lot we can do about that, by making sure that your diabetes is optimally controlled.”
Insulin is essential for keeping blood sugar in check, but the pricey medicine is harder to get if a job disappears, along with the health insurance that came with it.
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The cost of insulin varies from patient to patient. It depends on the type of insulin they need — some take effect within 15 minutes; others last more than a day — as well as the dose. Some insurance plans pick up more of the tab than others.
The financial strain brought on by the pandemic has forced Royce Jonathan Miller of Yuba City to consider rationing the insulin he takes for Type 1 diabetes. He has kept his job as an optician at Walmart, but since his father-in-law lost his job at a maintenance company that closed operations due to the pandemic, Miller has become the sole provider for the four people in his household.
Brandi DaVeiga programs the insulin pump that helps her control her Type 1 diabetes. (Christina House / Los Angeles Times)
Miller has an insulin pump, which uses a tube to infuse a small amount of insulin under the skin so it can be absorbed into the bloodstream. He is supposed to change out the pieces that connect to his body every three days. Lately, he’s been wondering if that’s absolutely necessary.
“I’m starting to think, ‘I can stretch that up for two cycles, every six days, and hopefully it doesn’t get infected,’” Miller said. “But I do realize that if I am to make myself sick and wind up in the hospital, that will be a bigger burden.”
A nationwide survey of 5,000 people with diabetes conducted for the American Diabetes Assn. found that one in four have rationed supplies to cut the cost of their diabetes care since the start of the pandemic.
“Now is not the time to let up on helping these individuals manage their disease, because it may in fact be helpful in preventing them from getting severe COVID-19,” Drucker said.
People with Type 2 diabetes may face even greater hardship in affording their insulin, said Dr. Francisco Prieto, a family health physician in Sacramento.
“Not everyone who has Type 2 has to take insulin,” Prieto said. “Those who do are typically folks who either have the most severe cases of diabetes or have failed all the previous oral and injectable treatments.” That means they may need to take even more insulin on a daily basis than Type 1 patients, he said.
Since 2019, 11 states have set limits on the amount insurance companies can set as co-payments for insulin. Each of those states has enacted price caps ranging from $25 to $100 per month since the coronavirus outbreak took off in March.
California may soon join the list. In February, Assemblyman Adrin Nazarian (D-North Hollywood) introduced a bill that would cap insulin co-pays at $50 for a 30-day supply, or $100 per month. It passed in June by a 64-4-11 vote, but the Senate Health Committee has not scheduled a hearing that would allow the bill to move forward.
Winney said a price cap would give him some peace of mind. These days he relies on free samples provided by one of his doctors, but that generosity may not last.
“I see that as an incentive to finally change insurance,” he said.
Brandi DaVeiga, who has Type 1 diabetes, at home in Lakewood. (Christina House / Los Angeles Times)
Ensuring an affordable supply of insulin would help people with diabetes manage their disease better, said Brandi DaVeiga, a stay-at-home mom in Lakewood with Type 1 diabetes. She has good coverage now through her husband’s health insurance plan, but when she was between plans three years ago, she began skipping insulin doses to make her supply last longer. On several occasions, her blood sugar levels rose dangerously high, and she ended up in the emergency room.
“It’s really stressful,” she said of managing diabetes during a pandemic. “And that doesn’t help your blood sugar.”
The fact that people with diabetes are rationing their insulin when they need it most points to larger problems with healthcare access in this country, Drucker said.
“COVID-19 is reminding us of the importance of doing everything we can in our vulnerable, at-risk populations,” he said. “Let’s do everything we can to optimize their health because that may, in turn, reduce their risk of having a bad outcome with this virus.”


latimes--2020-08-11--San Quentin's coronavirus outbreak shows why 'herd immunity' could mean disaster

For critics of aggressive stay-at-home orders , the solution seems clear : Reopen the economy and enough people will eventually become infected by the novel coronavirus to achieve “ herd immunity ” even before a vaccine is available .
The idea is that eventually , a sufficient percentage of the population will have survived COVID-19 and become immune , which in turn protects the rest of the uninfected population by interrupting the spread of the virus .
But the disastrous situation unfolding at San Quentin State Prison over the last two months has become the latest of several cautionary tales @ @ @ @ @ @ @ herd immunity before a vaccine is available would come with enormous costs in terms of illness and death .
COVID-19 spread unchecked across California ’ s oldest prison in ways that stunned public health experts , despite efforts to control the disease .
As of Monday , there had been more than 2,200 cases and 25 deaths , among a population of more than 3,260 people .
On Sunday , a guard became one of the latest to die .
That means more than two-thirds of the prison ’ s population has been @ @ @ @ @ @ @ epidemiologist and infectious diseases expert at UC San Francisco .
And though new cases have slowed , they are still occurring — with 60 reported in the last two weeks — suggesting herd immunity has not yet been achieved .
San Quentin ’ s death toll translates to a mortality rate of about 767 people dying out of every 100,000 persons .
If that same rate occurred across California , that would translate to a staggering 300,000 deaths statewide — many times larger than California ’ s cumulative death toll of more than @ @ @ @ @ @ @ equivalent to 2.5 million deaths ; the current cumulative U.S. death toll is more than 163,000 .
“ You couldn ’ t help but get it — you ’ re staying in a place with no ventilation , ” Michael Kirkpatrick , 62 , told The Times a week after he was freed .
Kirkpatrick was released from San Quentin on July 13 after his parole on a burglary conviction was expedited because of the outbreak .
He tested positive for the virus and has since recovered .
Kirkpatrick said his cellmate was @ @ @ @ @ @ @ rest of the inmates in the 50 or so cells on his tier .
“ They put a little white piece of paper on the door of everyone who was positive , ” Kirkpatrick said .
“ On our wing , there were , like , maybe five cells that didn ’ t have that piece of paper on them.
” San Quentin is an imperfect setting to help understand when herd immunity might be achieved .
Prisons are crowded settings that will promote coronavirus transmission more so than among people in other @ @ @ @ @ @ @ single-family homes .
But the San Quentin experience — as well as other data — does show that , in the absence of a vaccine , “ in order to get to something that approaches herd immunity , we ’ re going to have to get something well on the far side of 50 % of people infected , ” Rutherford said .
“ Which comes with a resultant large cost in mortality and severe morbidity .
“ If you believe the San Quentin stuff , you got to get up to way-up-there @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , ” Rutherford said .
Dr. Anthony Fauci , the U.S. government ’ s top infectious diseases expert , last week guessed it will probably require 50 % to 75 % of a population to be immune before achieving herd immunity — a goal that should be achieved not just through infected people recovering but also through vaccination .
California has a long way to go before the vast majority of residents have been infected .
In May , only about 2 % of L.A. County residents had test results indicating presence of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ previous exposure to the virus .
That means 98 % of L.A. County ’ s residents as of late spring were still susceptible to infection .
The prevalence of past coronavirus infection in the Bay Area was even less , with just 1 % having evidence of it in late April , according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention .
Sweden famously pursued a herd immunity strategy when it decided not to impose a severe lockdown .
But now , Sweden has among the highest mortality rates among European countries @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that of the United States .
Sweden has reported 5,763 deaths — a mortality rate of 57 deaths for every 100,000 residents , according to Johns Hopkins University .
The United States is reporting a mortality rate of 50 deaths for every 100,000 residents .
Sweden ’ s neighbors , by contrast , report far fewer deaths .
Denmark has a mortality rate of 11 deaths per 100,000 residents ; Norway ’ s is five deaths per 100,000 residents .
And Sweden appears to be nowhere near herd immunity , with only 7 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ antibodies to the coronavirus , “ leaving them far from reaching natural herd immunity in the population , ” according to a commentary by two virologists in Switzerland , published in the journal Lancet .
“ Most of the population appears to have remained unexposed to [ the coronavirus ] , even in areas with widespread virus circulation .
“ In light of these findings , any proposed approach to achieve herd immunity through natural infection is not only highly unethical , but also unachievable , ” the commentary said , written by @ @ @ @ @ @ @ CDC estimates that perhaps only 23 % of New York City ’ s population has had past infection with the coronavirus .
New York City could easily fall into a second wave of severe coronavirus pandemic conditions , Rutherford said .
Other data show how it ’ s possible for far larger proportions of the population to get infected .
Among three slums in Mumbai , India , 57 % of people tested have been exposed to the coronavirus , according to the BBC , citing a survey conducted by government officials .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ that left Argentina in March bound for Antartica , 59 % tested positive for the virus , according to a study published in the journal Thorax .
Even nations that have previously been seen as hard hit still have plenty of susceptible people to fuel a second wave of disease .
Spain was hard hit in its first surge of the pandemic , having an experience as bad as Italy and New York City , Rutherford said .
But a study in the journal Lancet said only about 5 % of the population @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to the virus .
What all of this means is that a vaccine is going to be essential to controlling the pandemic .
Though officials and experts are expressing cautious optimism that California as a whole appears to be heading out of the current surge of disease , they are already warning the public to expect new surges of cases in the coming months — perhaps when disease levels fall low enough that more schools can begin to reopen .
Gov .
Gavin Newsom last week said he ’ s anticipating a new @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and is hoping that coronavirus disease transmission falls before the flu season hits .
Newsom ’ s Health and Human Services Agency secretary , Dr. Mark Ghaly , also spoke last week about second and third waves of disease .
In the last global pandemic comparable to this one , in 1918-19 , there were three distinct waves of flu in the U.S. , with levels of disease falling back down to the baseline level after the first wave hit .
But Rutherford warned that it ’ s possible that California may be @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a similar baseline level , given how the disease is extraordinarily widespread .
“ I think it ’ s almost impossible for us to return to baseline given how many people are infected and how broadly distributed the infection is , ” Rutherford said .
“ So we ’ ll see it go ... down a little bit before it starts to go back up again , ” rising whenever officials think it ’ s OK to allow adolescents to return to school .
“ This is not going to be controlled without @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , ” Rutherford said .
“ The solution is immunization.
” Fauci , at a forum Wednesday hosted by the Harvard T.H .
Chan School of Public Health , said he thinks officials will know by the end of this year or the beginning of next year , based on initial data from early studies , “ whether we have a safe and effective vaccine .
I ’ m cautiously optimistic that we will be successful.
” Fauci ’ s optimistic timeline is based on the assumption that everything will go right , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ UC San Francisco ’ s division of experimental medicine .
But it ’ s also plausible that we might not get an answer about a safe and effective vaccine until 2022 , Ernst said , citing a more pessimistic timeframe offered by the scientists who designed the clinical trials for the vaccine .
“ That ’ s very conservative , ” he said .
“ It ’ s difficult to predict exactly what date things will be ready , ” Ernst said .
It will also take time to figure out a way @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ t be enough vaccines to inoculate everyone in the nation immediately .
“ There will be a period of time when vaccines are proven to be safe and effective that you ’ re not going to have 300 million doses right away .
So you ’ re gon na have to prioritize who gets it first , ” Fauci said .
In contrast to President Trump saying the coronavirus will simply “ go away , ” some officials in California are bracing the public to face the reality that the coronavirus will @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
We need to get “ everyone in shifting their mind-set to a long game , ” said Santa Clara County health officer Dr. Sara Cody .
“ We have to be changing our behavior for a very , very long time.
” “ If we see that the cases are rising and they ’ re rising fast , then we may need to put more stricter controls into place , as we did back in March , ” Cody said .
Dr. Christina Ghaly , L.A. County ’ s director of health @ @ @ @ @ @ @ as capable of spreading now as it was several weeks ago .
“ And it will continue to spread if we give it a chance to do so .
”

For critics of aggressive stay-at-home orders, the solution seems clear: Reopen the economy and enough people will eventually become infected by the novel coronavirus to achieve “herd immunity” even before a vaccine is available.
The idea is that eventually, a sufficient percentage of the population will have survived COVID-19 and become immune, which in turn protects the rest of the uninfected population by interrupting the spread of the virus.
But the disastrous situation unfolding at San Quentin State Prison over the last two months has become the latest of several cautionary tales that show how any effort to achieve herd immunity before a vaccine is available would come with enormous costs in terms of illness and death.
COVID-19 spread unchecked across California’s oldest prison in ways that stunned public health experts, despite efforts to control the disease. As of Monday, there had been more than 2,200 cases and 25 deaths, among a population of more than 3,260 people. On Sunday, a guard became one of the latest to die.
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That means more than two-thirds of the prison’s population has been infected, said Dr. George Rutherford, epidemiologist and infectious diseases expert at UC San Francisco.
And though new cases have slowed, they are still occurring — with 60 reported in the last two weeks — suggesting herd immunity has not yet been achieved.
San Quentin’s death toll translates to a mortality rate of about 767 people dying out of every 100,000 persons.
If that same rate occurred across California, that would translate to a staggering 300,000 deaths statewide — many times larger than California’s cumulative death toll of more than 10,400. Nationally, that would be equivalent to 2.5 million deaths; the current cumulative U.S. death toll is more than 163,000.
“You couldn’t help but get it — you’re staying in a place with no ventilation,” Michael Kirkpatrick, 62, told The Times a week after he was freed. Kirkpatrick was released from San Quentin on July 13 after his parole on a burglary conviction was expedited because of the outbreak. He tested positive for the virus and has since recovered.
Kirkpatrick said his cellmate was infected, along with most of the rest of the inmates in the 50 or so cells on his tier.
Advertisement
“They put a little white piece of paper on the door of everyone who was positive,” Kirkpatrick said. “On our wing, there were, like, maybe five cells that didn’t have that piece of paper on them.”
San Quentin is an imperfect setting to help understand when herd immunity might be achieved. Prisons are crowded settings that will promote coronavirus transmission more so than among people in other settings, like those who live in single-family homes.
But the San Quentin experience — as well as other data — does show that, in the absence of a vaccine, “in order to get to something that approaches herd immunity, we’re going to have to get something well on the far side of 50% of people infected,” Rutherford said. “Which comes with a resultant large cost in mortality and severe morbidity.
“If you believe the San Quentin stuff, you got to get up to way-up-there before you start seeing slowing of transmission,” Rutherford said.
Dr. Anthony Fauci, the U.S. government’s top infectious diseases expert, last week guessed it will probably require 50% to 75% of a population to be immune before achieving herd immunity — a goal that should be achieved not just through infected people recovering but also through vaccination.
California has a long way to go before the vast majority of residents have been infected.
In May, only about 2% of L.A. County residents had test results indicating presence of the antibodies to the coronavirus, indicating previous exposure to the virus. That means 98% of L.A. County’s residents as of late spring were still susceptible to infection.
The prevalence of past coronavirus infection in the Bay Area was even less, with just 1% having evidence of it in late April, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
Sweden famously pursued a herd immunity strategy when it decided not to impose a severe lockdown.
But now, Sweden has among the highest mortality rates among European countries, and has a worse rate than that of the United States.
Sweden has reported 5,763 deaths — a mortality rate of 57 deaths for every 100,000 residents, according to Johns Hopkins University. The United States is reporting a mortality rate of 50 deaths for every 100,000 residents.
Sweden’s neighbors, by contrast, report far fewer deaths. Denmark has a mortality rate of 11 deaths per 100,000 residents; Norway’s is five deaths per 100,000 residents.
And Sweden appears to be nowhere near herd immunity, with only 7% of the population testing positive for antibodies to the coronavirus, “leaving them far from reaching natural herd immunity in the population,” according to a commentary by two virologists in Switzerland, published in the journal Lancet. “Most of the population appears to have remained unexposed to [the coronavirus], even in areas with widespread virus circulation.
“In light of these findings, any proposed approach to achieve herd immunity through natural infection is not only highly unethical, but also unachievable,” the commentary said, written by Isabella Eckerle and Benjamin Meyer.
The CDC estimates that perhaps only 23% of New York City’s population has had past infection with the coronavirus. New York City could easily fall into a second wave of severe coronavirus pandemic conditions, Rutherford said.
Other data show how it’s possible for far larger proportions of the population to get infected.
Among three slums in Mumbai, India, 57% of people tested have been exposed to the coronavirus, according to the BBC, citing a survey conducted by government officials. On a cruise ship with 217 passengers that left Argentina in March bound for Antartica, 59% tested positive for the virus, according to a study published in the journal Thorax.
Even nations that have previously been seen as hard hit still have plenty of susceptible people to fuel a second wave of disease.
Spain was hard hit in its first surge of the pandemic, having an experience as bad as Italy and New York City, Rutherford said. But a study in the journal Lancet said only about 5% of the population had antibody test results indicating past exposure to the virus.
Recently, Spain began experiencing a second wave of cases.
What all of this means is that a vaccine is going to be essential to controlling the pandemic.
Though officials and experts are expressing cautious optimism that California as a whole appears to be heading out of the current surge of disease, they are already warning the public to expect new surges of cases in the coming months — perhaps when disease levels fall low enough that more schools can begin to reopen.
Gov. Gavin Newsom last week said he’s anticipating a new wave of disease in the fall — and is hoping that coronavirus disease transmission falls before the flu season hits. Newsom’s Health and Human Services Agency secretary, Dr. Mark Ghaly, also spoke last week about second and third waves of disease.
In the last global pandemic comparable to this one, in 1918-19, there were three distinct waves of flu in the U.S., with levels of disease falling back down to the baseline level after the first wave hit.
But Rutherford warned that it’s possible that California may be unable to get its disease down to a similar baseline level, given how the disease is extraordinarily widespread.
“I think it’s almost impossible for us to return to baseline given how many people are infected and how broadly distributed the infection is,” Rutherford said. “So we’ll see it go ... down a little bit before it starts to go back up again,” rising whenever officials think it’s OK to allow adolescents to return to school.
“This is not going to be controlled without vaccine. Make no mistake about it,” Rutherford said. “The solution is immunization.”
Fauci, at a forum Wednesday hosted by the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, said he thinks officials will know by the end of this year or the beginning of next year, based on initial data from early studies, “whether we have a safe and effective vaccine. I’m cautiously optimistic that we will be successful.”
Fauci’s optimistic timeline is based on the assumption that everything will go right, said Dr. Joel Ernst, chief of UC San Francisco’s division of experimental medicine.
But it’s also plausible that we might not get an answer about a safe and effective vaccine until 2022, Ernst said, citing a more pessimistic timeframe offered by the scientists who designed the clinical trials for the vaccine. “That’s very conservative,” he said.
“It’s difficult to predict exactly what date things will be ready,” Ernst said.
It will also take time to figure out a way to start immunizing Americans. There won’t be enough vaccines to inoculate everyone in the nation immediately. “There will be a period of time when vaccines are proven to be safe and effective that you’re not going to have 300 million doses right away. So you’re gonna have to prioritize who gets it first,” Fauci said.
In contrast to President Trump saying the coronavirus will simply “go away,” some officials in California are bracing the public to face the reality that the coronavirus will be with us for the foreseeable future.
We need to get “everyone in shifting their mind-set to a long game,” said Santa Clara County health officer Dr. Sara Cody. “We have to be changing our behavior for a very, very long time.”
“If we see that the cases are rising and they’re rising fast, then we may need to put more stricter controls into place, as we did back in March,” Cody said.
Dr. Christina Ghaly, L.A. County’s director of health services, said the virus is just as capable of spreading now as it was several weeks ago. “And it will continue to spread if we give it a chance to do so.”
Lin reported from San Francisco, Christensen from Southern California.