latimes--2020-11-19--California to issue emergency COVID-19 workplace safety rules as infections rise

California is on track to issue emergency rules aimed at curbing workplace spread of COVID-19 — offering a chance at relief to essential workers , who have been disproportionately sickened by the worsening pandemic .
A six-member board overseeing , known as Cal/OSHA , voted unanimously Thursday to advance a slate of workplace protocols that have been championed by labor advocates since May .
By establishing how employers must protect their workers , the new rules would give Cal/OSHA a baseline it could use to hold recalcitrant businesses accountable .
Early in the pandemic , the state began issuing detailed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ industries , but Cal/OSHA ’ s authority to enforce those guidelines is disputed , while its authority to enforce the emergency rules is clear .
The new policy could take effect within a few weeks pending a review and comment period .
It would apply to the employers of most private- and public-sector workers statewide , except those in healthcare who are already covered under a 2009 state law .
Dozens of essential workers — including janitors , teachers , fast-food workers and meatpackers — testified at Thursday ’ s meeting about persistent @ @ @ @ @ @ @ personal protective gear or help employees keep their distance from one another .
“ We can ’ t bring community spread under control unless we bring workplace spread under control , ” said Maggie Robbins of , which was among several groups that petitioned Cal/OSHA to consider emergency protections .
“ This is a way to set legally enforceable standards that are consistent across the workforce.
” Robbins applauded officials for moving swiftly in a rulemaking process that could have taken several more months .
But business interests argued against the proposal ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ rushed ” and the provisions duplicative and burdensome .
Robert Moutrie of the , which represents over 40,000 employers in the state , raised concerns about “ feasibility and clarity.
” He implored the board to delay the issue to give business groups more time to weigh in .
Katie Hansen of the California Restaurant Assn .
called some of the rules “ unnecessary and excessively costly ” for businesses already taking stringent measures to keep their workforces safe .
“ Emergency regulation is a one-size-fits-all approach.
” Under the new rules , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ prevention policies that identify and mitigate workplace-specific hazards .
Employers would also have to provide face coverings and personal protective equipment at no cost to workers .
In the event of an outbreak — defined as three or more cases in a workplace within a two-week period — employers would be required to provide free coronavirus testing .
Other provisions reinforce existing guidelines such as the requirement to promptly notify health officials , Cal/OSHA and workforces when employees test positive for the virus .
Agricultural groups vigorously opposed particular provisions that would affect @ @ @ @ @ @ @ where cramped conditions have .
The Cal/OSHA protocols recognize the latest research confirming that airborne transmission of the virus can occur , but they stop short of recommending specific ventilation requirements for workplaces .
Increasingly , experts have focused on “ ” — an air quality measure that could play a significant role in limiting the spread of the coronavirus indoors .
Alice Berliner of the , an advocacy group , said no policy is foolproof but hailed Thursday ’ s vote as a step in the right direction at a critical juncture @ @ @ @ @ @ @ more than 13,000 new coronavirus cases were reported in California , setting a new single-day record .
Since the winter , the state has tallied more than , including more than 18,000 deaths .
State officials responded to the new surge by announcing this week .
Nationwide , there have been more than 11 million reported cases , with that the death toll could climb as high as 298,000 by early December .
California ’ s set of new rules “ gives Cal/OSHA a lot of clarity in what they can cite employers @ @ @ @ @ @ @ accountable , ” Berliner said .
She said the standards could make employers think twice about disregarding social distancing and other protocols meant to protect workers and “ equal the playing field ” for those who already have been following these guidelines .
California would be the third state to implement emergency COVID workplace rules .
Virginia was the first to issue in late July , requiring employers to follow guidelines or face fines .
Oregon ’ s and are slated to last until May 2021 .
California ’ s emergency rules will @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , though officials are expected to convene an advisory committee to consider whether permanent policies should be adopted to safeguard against future pandemics .
But longstanding concerns about Cal/OSHA ’ s ability to adequately and quickly enforce existing safety rules remained a sore point during a state legislative hearing Tuesday .
Assemblymember ( D-San Bernardino ) repeatedly questioned Cal/OSHA Chief Doug Parker about why the agency has so many open jobs despite its ample funding to hire .
The Times has reported extensively on the agency ’ s , including its recent efforts @ @ @ @ @ @ @ previously told The Times that the pandemic has buried Cal/OSHA staff in more complaints than they can handle , stymying the agency ’ s ability to effectively respond .
Labor advocates who testified at the Tuesday hearing criticized the agency ’ s increased reliance on remote “ letter investigations , ” sometimes in lieu of on-site inspections .
Parker admitted his staff has struggled to make do with less , but expressed confidence that the emergency rules were “ achievable ” for the agency if implemented .
Essential workers — many of them @ @ @ @ @ @ @ employers and Cal/OSHA ’ s inability or unwillingness to intervene .
A found that workplace transmission presents severe risks to essential workers and their household members , who tend to be disproportionately Latino and Black and to work in low-wage sectors .

At a May demonstration at the Amazon delivery hub in Hawthorne, workers from Amazon, Whole Foods, Instacart and Shipt demand better protections from the coronavirus.
California is on track to issue emergency rules aimed at curbing workplace spread of COVID-19 — offering a chance at relief to essential workers, who have been disproportionately sickened by the worsening pandemic.
A six-member board overseeing California’s Division of Occupational Safety and Health , known as Cal/OSHA, voted unanimously Thursday to advance a slate of workplace protocols that have been championed by labor advocates since May.
By establishing how employers must protect their workers, the new rules would give Cal/OSHA a baseline it could use to hold recalcitrant businesses accountable. Early in the pandemic, the state began issuing detailed COVID workplace safety guidelines for dozens of industries, but Cal/OSHA’s authority to enforce those guidelines is disputed, while its authority to enforce the emergency rules is clear.
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The new policy could take effect within a few weeks pending a review and comment period. It would apply to the employers of most private- and public-sector workers statewide, except those in healthcare who are already covered under a 2009 state law governing infectious airborne illnesses .
Dozens of essential workers — including janitors, teachers, fast-food workers and meatpackers — testified at Thursday’s meeting about persistent workplace outbreaks and employers unwilling to provide personal protective gear or help employees keep their distance from one another.
“We can’t bring community spread under control unless we bring workplace spread under control,” said Maggie Robbins of Worksafe , which was among several groups that petitioned Cal/OSHA to consider emergency protections. “This is a way to set legally enforceable standards that are consistent across the workforce.”
Robbins applauded officials for moving swiftly in a rulemaking process that could have taken several more months.
But business interests argued against the proposal’s passage, calling the process “rushed” and the provisions duplicative and burdensome.
Robert Moutrie of the California Chamber of Commerce , which represents over 40,000 employers in the state, raised concerns about “feasibility and clarity.” He implored the board to delay the issue to give business groups more time to weigh in.
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Katie Hansen of the California Restaurant Assn. called some of the rules “unnecessary and excessively costly” for businesses already taking stringent measures to keep their workforces safe. “Emergency regulation is a one-size-fits-all approach.”
Under the new rules, employers would have to create written COVID-19 prevention policies that identify and mitigate workplace-specific hazards. Employers would also have to provide face coverings and personal protective equipment at no cost to workers.
In the event of an outbreak — defined as three or more cases in a workplace within a two-week period — employers would be required to provide free coronavirus testing. Other provisions reinforce existing guidelines such as the requirement to promptly notify health officials, Cal/OSHA and workforces when employees test positive for the virus.
Agricultural groups vigorously opposed particular provisions that would affect company-provided housing and transportation for farmworkers, where cramped conditions have fostered deadly outbreaks .
The Cal/OSHA protocols recognize the latest research confirming that airborne transmission of the virus can occur, but they stop short of recommending specific ventilation requirements for workplaces. Increasingly, experts have focused on “ air changes per hour ”— an air quality measure that could play a significant role in limiting the spread of the coronavirus indoors.
Alice Berliner of the Southern California Coalition for Occupational Safety and Health , an advocacy group, said no policy is foolproof but hailed Thursday’s vote as a step in the right direction at a critical juncture for the state.
On Monday, more than 13,000 new coronavirus cases were reported in California, setting a new single-day record. Since the winter, the state has tallied more than 1 million cases , including more than 18,000 deaths. State officials responded to the new surge by announcing a dramatic rollback in reopenings this week.
Nationwide, there have been more than 11 million reported cases, with experts projecting that the death toll could climb as high as 298,000 by early December.
California’s set of new rules “gives Cal/OSHA a lot of clarity in what they can cite employers on and how they can hold employers accountable,” Berliner said. She said the standards could make employers think twice about disregarding social distancing and other protocols meant to protect workers and “equal the playing field” for those who already have been following these guidelines.
California would be the third state to implement emergency COVID workplace rules. Virginia was the first to issue statewide workplace regulations in late July, requiring employers to follow guidelines or face fines. Oregon’s rules took effect Monday and are slated to last until May 2021.
California’s emergency rules will likely be in place for six months, though officials are expected to convene an advisory committee to consider whether permanent policies should be adopted to safeguard against future pandemics.
But longstanding concerns about Cal/OSHA’s ability to adequately and quickly enforce existing safety rules remained a sore point during a state legislative hearing Tuesday.
Assemblymember Eloise Gómez Reyes (D-San Bernardino) repeatedly questioned Cal/OSHA Chief Doug Parker about why the agency has so many open jobs despite its ample funding to hire. The Times has reported extensively on the agency’s longstanding struggles to attract and retain inspectors , including its recent efforts to entice retirees to rejoin its ranks.
Several inspectors have previously told The Times that the pandemic has buried Cal/OSHA staff in more complaints than they can handle, stymying the agency’s ability to effectively respond. Labor advocates who testified at the Tuesday hearing criticized the agency’s increased reliance on remote “letter investigations,” sometimes in lieu of on-site inspections.
Parker admitted his staff has struggled to make do with less, but expressed confidence that the emergency rules were “achievable” for the agency if implemented.


latimes--2020-11-19--L.A. County sees nearly 5,000 new coronavirus infections in a single day, shattering record

Los Angeles County recorded nearly 5,000 new coronavirus cases Thursday , the most it has seen in any one day since the pandemic began , as the state announced that a new , limited stay-at-home order would be put in place starting this weekend that asks people to stay at home between 10 p.m. and 5 a.m. , with certain exceptions .
The sheer magnitude of the figure in L.A. County illustrates that the coronavirus outbreak is surging to devastating new heights and underscores that no one should underestimate the extent of its spread , health officer Dr. Muntu Davis @ @ @ @ @ @ @ seeing a much more rapid surge than we saw during the summer , ” he said during a briefing .
An independent Los Angeles Times tally recorded 4,848 new cases Thursday , adding together the latest counts from the cities of Long Beach and Pasadena , which have their own health agencies .
Thursday ’ s count broke the last single-day all-time record of new coronavirus cases , when 4,793 cases were recorded on July 29 .
The growth in daily cases is much sharper as the third wave hits Los Angeles County @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Thursday , average daily cases over a seven-day period have jumped by 102 % , from more than 1,600 cases a day to nearly 3,300 cases a day .
By comparison , average daily cases over a seven-day period only jumped by 77 % during the last sharp surge between June 19 to July 2 , from about 1,300 cases a day to 2,300 cases a day .
The contrast shows how L.A. County ’ s third surge could be the most dangerous yet .
If the number of new daily coronavirus cases @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the same as Thursday ’ s , L.A. County could cross a red line as early as Sunday that would put the region on the cusp of a new stay-at-home order .
Whether such a new stay-at-home order would happen automatically or wait for a few days hasn ’ t yet been decided , Davis said .
“ It ’ s really something that we have to discuss , ” Davis said .
“ We ’ re really hoping that we don ’ t get there , to have to issue a Safer-at-Home @ @ @ @ @ @ @ be in a different position at this time of year , seeing improvements in case counts and beginning the widespread reopening of schools .
“ In all honesty , we never expected or hoped that we would be in this situation at this time of the year , ” Davis said .
Officials have started to warn for the first time in months that the county could run out of intensive care unit beds if the surge in cases does not slow .
“ At this point , no one should be still @ @ @ @ @ @ @ nor should anyone be questioning the actions we still need to slow the spread and lessen its impact on our collective health and our local economy , ” Davis said .
He urged the public to cancel travel plans and stay home for the holidays ; avoid eating at outdoor dining areas at restaurants ; avoid crowds by shopping for groceries early in the day or having them delivered ; and urged younger adults to volunteer to buy food for neighbors , family and friends who are older or have underlying health conditions @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in L.A. County , “ it is safe to assume that many people are infected without even knowing it yet , ” Davis warned .
“ Right now , the kindest thing we can do for our family , friends and neighbors is to protect each other from potentially becoming infected with COVID-19.
” COVID-19 has already proven itself to be far more dangerous and deadlier than the flu .
The last flu season in L.A. County was particularly severe and caused about 3,100 deaths ; COVID-19 has already been twice as worse @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 7,364 people in L.A. County since March .
The complications are also proving to be long lasting , Davis said , with serious pneumonia causing lasting damage to the lungs that result in long-term breathing problems , as well as cause lasting damage to the heart muscle , even in people who experience only mild COVID-19 symptoms .
“ It is possible this could increase the risk of heart failure or other heart complications in the future , ” Davis said .
Ahead of any such action at the county level , though @ @ @ @ @ @ @ limited stay-at-home order that will prohibit nonessential work and gatherings between 10 p.m. and 5 a.m. in counties that are in the most restrictive tier of the state ’ s coronavirus reopening blueprint .
As of this week , 41 counties representing roughly 94 % of the state ’ s population , including Los Angeles , were in that “ purple ” tier .
Officials said Thursday afternoon that the order will take effect at 10 p.m. Saturday and remain in place for one month .
California is “ seeing this surge growing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ address it immediately , ” according to Health and Human Services Secretary Dr. Mark Ghaly .
“ We aren ’ t sure where the peak will be , so that is why we certainly need to be laser-focused on all things we can do collectively across the state , ” he said .
Davis also announced that there are 1,238 COVID-19 patients now hospitalized countywide , a figure that has steadily increased in recent weeks .
During his briefing Thursday , Ghaly shined a spotlight on L.A. County ’ s rapidly swelling case @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to continued rise in that number.
” Though infections are skyrocketing at a rate the county has never seen , Davis pointed to the response to the previous summertime surge as evidence that — through collective caution and vigilance — the community can turn things around .
“ It is possible to do that again , ” he said , “ but it takes each and every one of us , regardless of our beliefs , regardless of what we think , to follow the practices that we know slow the spread of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the daily case counts that we ’ re seeing now and the hospitalizations and deaths that we ’ ll see that come from those.
” Beyond L.A. County , coronavirus cases are increasing at a record rate across California as the state works frantically to turn back the tide of new infections .
Over the one-week period that ended Wednesday , the state , on average , recorded more than 10,000 new cases each day — an unprecedented figure that has more than tripled from a month ago , according to a Los @ @ @ @ @ @ @ crossed the 10,000-case threshold four times since last Thursday , including each of the last three days .
California has never experienced sustained daily case counts this high — even during the mid-summer surge , which previously stood as the most expansive and deadliest time of the COVID-19 pandemic .
Of greater concern , officials say , is that the spike in new infections also may drastically increase hospitalizations .
Most of those who test positive eventually will recover , and many do so without needing to be admitted for professional medical care @ @ @ @ @ @ @ expect that roughly 12 % of those testing positive will end up in hospitals in two to three weeks .
COVID-19 hospitalizatons have risen by 63.6 % over the last 14 days — hitting 4,523 as of Thursday , he said .
The number of patients in intensive care , 1,155 , is 40.5 % higher than two weeks ago .
Officials in Los Angeles County sounded that alarm Wednesday , saying that , unless things change , the demand for local hospital and intensive care beds could soon outstrip supply .
“ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in the COVID-19 pandemic again , ” said Dr. Christina Ghaly , the county ’ s director of health services , at a briefing .
The county is “ at a dangerous place with respect to our overall cases and hospitalizations.
” “ The message is very clear , ” she added .
“ It is highly likely that we will experience the highest rates of hospitalizations that we have seen in the COVID-19 pandemic to date within the next month , unless we take action immediately to substantially reduce transmission within our @ @ @ @ @ @ @ jaw-dropping case count , L.A. County ’ s daily coronavirus totals were approaching record territory .
Wednesday ’ s tally of 3,795 cases was the fifth-largest daily total recorded since the pandemic began — and the highest number since July 29 , when 4,793 new infections were reported , according to The Times ’ coronavirus tracker .
Just two weeks ago , the seven-day average of daily coronavirus cases in L.A. County was about 1,400 .
By Wednesday , that figure had more than doubled to over 2,900 cases daily .
If the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ cases exceeds 4,000 over a five-day period , officials say they will order the closure of outdoor dining areas at restaurants , meaning eateries will be able to serve food by takeout and delivery only .
Should the five-day average reach 4,500 , officials have pledged more dramatic actions : instituting a local stay-at-home order for at least three weeks , as well as a 10 p.m.-to-6 a.m. curfew that only exempts essential workers .
“ I don ’ t think it ’ s inevitable that we do get there , ” county @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
“ I hope with every single bone in my body that we don ’ t get there .
We put the thresholds out so that everyone knows what triggers additional actions .
The hope is that we do every single thing we can starting right now .
We ’ re a little behind , to be honest.
” As has often been the case throughout the course of the pandemic , though , how ramped-up health orders will be enforced remains somewhat of an open question .
“ It would be great @ @ @ @ @ @ @ these plans because , if we ’ re the one enforcing it and we ’ re not involved in the making of the plans or anything , it ’ s not going to work , ” L.A. County Sheriff Alex Villanueva said Wednesday .
Villanueva was asked during a briefing what his department ’ s plan is to enforce a “ curfew ” slated to start Friday — an apparent reference to the county ’ s announcement from earlier this week that restaurants , breweries , bars , wineries and nonessential retail establishments @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a.m. beginning that day .
The Sheriff ’ s Department , he responded , is “ going to still have a hands-off on that until we have more information.
” “ We ’ ll have that conversation , and we ’ ll have it also with the chiefs of police in L.A. County , and we ’ ll come to an agreement on what we want to do moving forward , ” he said .
“ And we ’ re always going to have an eye toward improving public safety.
” Sacramento County @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that his office “ will not be determining — including entering any home or business — compliance with , or enforcing compliance of , any health or emergency orders related to curfews , staying at home , Thanksgiving or other social gatherings inside or outside the home , maximum occupancy or mask mandates.
” “ Of course , if there is potential criminal behavior or the potential for impacts to public or personal safety , we will continue to respond appropriately , ” he said .
Ghaly said that , when it comes @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ we ’ ve depended on a partnership with all of you.
” “ This is about coming together , ” he said .
“ This is about us deciding to do some things — that , sure , it ’ s an inconvenience , sure we may not want to — for a short period of time so we can get this under control and hopefully bring rates down.
” L.A. County isn ’ t the only area heading into uncharted waters as the surge continues .
San Diego County hit an @ @ @ @ @ @ @ past seven days , substantially worse than its previous peak in the summer .
Santa Clara County — Northern California ’ s most populous , which is often a bellwether for the rest of the Bay Area — has seen a tripling of its average daily caseload in the last month .
The statewide spike comes as the U.S. surpassed 250,000 COVID-19 fatalities — the highest documented pandemic death toll of any nation .
That figure includes more than 18,400 Californians .
The latest outbreak in cases hasn ’ t yet led to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ L.A. County , the average number of daily deaths has dropped to levels not seen since the early onset of the pandemic — a decrease that ’ s “ likely , in part , because of improvements in treatment for people who are seriously ill from COVID-19 , ” Ferrer said .
Experts are forecasting , however , that the current surge in coronavirus infections will lead to growing daily death counts , starting in December .
“ We should expect that , with the rapid increases in cases and hospitalizations , ” @ @ @ @ @ @ @ likely that we will tragically see increases in people passing away from COVID-19.
” Given the magnitude of the surge , California health officials have for weeks urged residents to reconsider their Thanksgiving plans and hold off on traveling or gathering with those they don ’ t live with .
“ The year has been extraordinarily difficult for almost everyone , and we ’ re not celebrating the holidays the way we want to — traveling , seeing friends and family , having parties and doing so many of the activities we look @ @ @ @ @ @ @ just not safe , ” Ferrer said .
Officials with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention added their voice to that chorus Thursday .
“ The safest way to celebrate Thanksgiving this year is at home with the people in your household , ” Erin Sauber-Schatz , who leads the CDC ’ s Community Intervention and Critical Population Task Force , said at a briefing .

Luke Money, Rong-Gong Lin II, Andrea Roberson

Los Angeles County recorded nearly 5,000 new coronavirus cases Thursday, the most it has seen in any one day since the pandemic began, as the state announced that a new, limited stay-at-home order would be put in place starting this weekend that asks people to stay at home between 10 p.m. and 5 a.m., with certain exceptions.
The sheer magnitude of the figure in L.A. County illustrates that the coronavirus outbreak is surging to devastating new heights and underscores that no one should underestimate the extent of its spread, health officer Dr. Muntu Davis said.
“We’re now seeing a much more rapid surge than we saw during the summer,” he said during a briefing.
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An independent Los Angeles Times tally recorded 4,943 new cases Thursday, adding together the latest counts from the cities of Long Beach and Pasadena, which have their own health agencies. Thursday’s count broke the last single-day all-time record of new coronavirus cases, when 4,793 cases were recorded on July 29.
The growth in daily cases is much sharper as the third wave hits Los Angeles County. For the two-week period that ended Thursday, average daily cases over a seven-day period have jumped by 102%, from more than 1,600 cases a day to nearly 3,300 cases a day.
By comparison, average daily cases over a seven-day period only jumped by 77% during the last sharp surge between June 19 to July 2, from about 1,300 cases a day to 2,300 cases a day.
The contrast shows how L.A. County’s third surge could be the most dangerous yet. If the number of new daily coronavirus cases on Friday, Saturday and Sunday remains the same as Thursday’s , L.A. County could cross a red line as early as Sunday that would put the region on the cusp of a new stay-at-home order.
Whether such a new stay-at-home order would happen automatically or wait for a few days hasn’t yet been decided, Davis said.
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“It’s really something that we have to discuss,” Davis said. “We’re really hoping that we don’t get there, to have to issue a Safer-at-Home order.”
County officials had hoped to be in a different position at this time of year, seeing improvements in case counts and beginning the widespread reopening of schools. “In all honesty, we never expected or hoped that we would be in this situation at this time of the year,” Davis said.
Officials have started to warn for the first time in months that the county could run out of intensive care unit beds if the surge in cases does not slow.
“At this point, no one should be still underestimating the spread of this virus, nor should anyone be questioning the actions we still need to slow the spread and lessen its impact on our collective health and our local economy,” Davis said.
He urged the public to cancel travel plans and stay home for the holidays; avoid eating at outdoor dining areas at restaurants; avoid crowds by shopping for groceries early in the day or having them delivered; and urged younger adults to volunteer to buy food for neighbors, family and friends who are older or have underlying health conditions.
With the surge in coronavirus transmission in L.A. County, “it is safe to assume that many people are infected without even knowing it yet,” Davis warned. “Right now, the kindest thing we can do for our family, friends and neighbors is to protect each other from potentially becoming infected with COVID-19.”
COVID-19 has already proven itself to be far more dangerous and deadlier than the flu. The last flu season in L.A. County was particularly severe and caused about 3,100 deaths; COVID-19 has already been twice as worse, already resulting in the deaths of 7,364 people in L.A. County since March.
The complications are also proving to be long lasting, Davis said, with serious pneumonia causing lasting damage to the lungs that result in long-term breathing problems, as well as cause lasting damage to the heart muscle, even in people who experience only mild COVID-19 symptoms. “It is possible this could increase the risk of heart failure or other heart complications in the future,” Davis said.
Ahead of any such action at the county level, though, the state issued a new, limited stay-at-home order that will prohibit nonessential work and gatherings between 10 p.m. and 5 a.m. in counties that are in the most restrictive tier of the state’s coronavirus reopening blueprint.
As of this week, 41 counties representing roughly 94% of the state’s population, including Los Angeles, were in that “purple” tier.
Officials said Thursday afternoon that the order will take effect at 10 p.m. Saturday and remain in place for one month.
California is “seeing this surge growing faster and faster, and we must address it immediately,” according to Health and Human Services Secretary Dr. Mark Ghaly.
“We aren’t sure where the peak will be, so that is why we certainly need to be laser-focused on all things we can do collectively across the state,” he said.
California California will impose ‘limited’ curfew due to COVID-19 surge The order prohibits most nonessential activity outside the home from 10 p.m. to 5 a.m. in counties in the strictest tier of the state’s reopening road map. It begins Saturday.
Davis also announced that there are 1,238 COVID-19 patients now hospitalized countywide, a figure that has steadily increased in recent weeks.
During his briefing Thursday, Ghaly shined a spotlight on L.A. County’s rapidly swelling case rate, saying “all signs point to continued rise in that number.”
Though infections are skyrocketing at a rate the county has never seen, Davis pointed to the response to the previous summertime surge as evidence that — through collective caution and vigilance — the community can turn things around.
“It is possible to do that again,” he said, “but it takes each and every one of us, regardless of our beliefs, regardless of what we think, to follow the practices that we know slow the spread of this virus and will help to limit the daily case counts that we’re seeing now and the hospitalizations and deaths that we’ll see that come from those.”
Beyond L.A. County, coronavirus cases are increasing at a record rate across California as the state works frantically to turn back the tide of new infections.
Over the one-week period that ended Wednesday, the state, on average, recorded more than 10,000 new cases each day — an unprecedented figure that has more than tripled from a month ago, according to a Los Angeles Times analysis.
The state has crossed the 10,000-case threshold four times since last Thursday, including each of the last three days.
California has never experienced sustained daily case counts this high — even during the mid-summer surge, which previously stood as the most expansive and deadliest time of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Of greater concern, officials say, is that the spike in new infections also may drastically increase hospitalizations.
Most of those who test positive eventually will recover, and many do so without needing to be admitted for professional medical care. However, Ghaly added, authorities expect that roughly 12% of those testing positive will end up in hospitals in two to three weeks.
COVID-19 hospitalizatons have risen by 63.6% over the last 14 days — hitting 4,523 as of Thursday, he said. The number of patients in intensive care, 1,155, is 40.5% higher than two weeks ago.
Officials in Los Angeles County sounded that alarm Wednesday, saying that, unless things change, the demand for local hospital and intensive care beds could soon outstrip supply.
“Clearly, we are at a crossroads in the COVID-19 pandemic again,” said Dr. Christina Ghaly, the county’s director of health services, at a briefing. The county is “at a dangerous place with respect to our overall cases and hospitalizations.”
“The message is very clear,” she added. “It is highly likely that we will experience the highest rates of hospitalizations that we have seen in the COVID-19 pandemic to date within the next month, unless we take action immediately to substantially reduce transmission within our communities.”
Even before Thursday’s jaw-dropping case count, L.A. County’s daily coronavirus totals were approaching record territory.
Wednesday’s tally of 3,795 cases was the fifth-largest daily total recorded since the pandemic began — and the highest number since July 29, when 4,793 new infections were reported, according to The Times’ coronavirus tracker.
Just two weeks ago, the seven-day average of daily coronavirus cases in L.A. County was about 1,400. By Wednesday, that figure had more than doubled to over 2,900 cases daily.
If the county’s average number of daily cases exceeds 4,000 over a five-day period, officials say they will order the closure of outdoor dining areas at restaurants, meaning eateries will be able to serve food by takeout and delivery only.
Should the five-day average reach 4,500, officials have pledged more dramatic actions: instituting a local stay-at-home order for at least three weeks, as well as a 10 p.m.-to-6 a.m. curfew that only exempts essential workers.
“I don’t think it’s inevitable that we do get there,” county Public Health Director Barbara Ferrer said Wednesday. “I hope with every single bone in my body that we don’t get there. We put the thresholds out so that everyone knows what triggers additional actions. The hope is that we do every single thing we can starting right now. We’re a little behind, to be honest.”
As has often been the case throughout the course of the pandemic, though, how ramped-up health orders will be enforced remains somewhat of an open question.
“It would be great if we actually were involved in discussing these plans because, if we’re the one enforcing it and we’re not involved in the making of the plans or anything, it’s not going to work,” L.A. County Sheriff Alex Villanueva said Wednesday.
Villanueva was asked during a briefing what his department’s plan is to enforce a “curfew” slated to start Friday — an apparent reference to the county’s announcement from earlier this week that restaurants, breweries, bars, wineries and nonessential retail establishments must close from 10 p.m. to 6 a.m. beginning that day.
The Sheriff’s Department, he responded, is “going to still have a hands-off on that until we have more information.”
“We’ll have that conversation, and we’ll have it also with the chiefs of police in L.A. County, and we’ll come to an agreement on what we want to do moving forward,” he said. “And we’re always going to have an eye toward improving public safety.”
Sacramento County Sheriff Scott Jones said in a statement that his office “will not be determining — including entering any home or business — compliance with, or enforcing compliance of, any health or emergency orders related to curfews, staying at home, Thanksgiving or other social gatherings inside or outside the home, maximum occupancy or mask mandates.”
“Of course, if there is potential criminal behavior or the potential for impacts to public or personal safety, we will continue to respond appropriately,” he said.
Ghaly said that, when it comes to compliance with state health orders, “we’ve depended on a partnership with all of you.”
“This is about coming together,” he said. “This is about us deciding to do some things — that, sure, it’s an inconvenience, sure we may not want to — for a short period of time so we can get this under control and hopefully bring rates down.”
L.A. County isn’t the only area heading into uncharted waters as the surge continues.
San Diego County hit an average of 884 daily cases over the past seven days, substantially worse than its previous peak in the summer.
Santa Clara County — Northern California’s most populous, which is often a bellwether for the rest of the Bay Area — has seen a tripling of its average daily caseload in the last month.
The statewide spike comes as the U.S. surpassed 250,000 COVID-19 fatalities — the highest documented pandemic death toll of any nation. That figure includes more than 18,400 Californians.
The latest outbreak in cases hasn’t yet led to an increase in fatalities statewide. In L.A. County, the average number of daily deaths has dropped to levels not seen since the early onset of the pandemic — a decrease that’s “likely, in part, because of improvements in treatment for people who are seriously ill from COVID-19,” Ferrer said.
Experts are forecasting, however, that the current surge in coronavirus infections will lead to growing daily death counts, starting in December.
“We should expect that, with the rapid increases in cases and hospitalizations,” Ferrer said, “it is also likely that we will tragically see increases in people passing away from COVID-19.”
Given the magnitude of the surge, California health officials have for weeks urged residents to reconsider their Thanksgiving plans and hold off on traveling or gathering with those they don’t live with.
“The year has been extraordinarily difficult for almost everyone, and we’re not celebrating the holidays the way we want to — traveling, seeing friends and family, having parties and doing so many of the activities we look forward to — because these activities are just not safe,” Ferrer said.
Officials with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention added their voice to that chorus Thursday.
“The safest way to celebrate Thanksgiving this year is at home with the people in your household,” Erin Sauber-Schatz, who leads the CDC’s Community Intervention and Critical Population Task Force, said at a briefing.
Bloomberg contributed to this report.


latimes--2020-11-19--Michael Tubbs lost his bid to return as Stockton mayor. Some say he's still a rising star

When Stockton Mayor Michael Tubbs conceded defeat Tuesday in a bid for a second term in this troubled San Joaquin Valley city , it was a painful moment he had not expected .
“ As someone who is used to winning , it ’ s always difficult when things don ’ t work out in your favor , ” Tubbs said Wednesday from Los Angeles , where he was in town for meetings .
“ I put my heart and soul into my job , so I took it very personally.
” Tubbs lost to Republican challenger Kevin Lincoln , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ One , the presidential helicopter , during George W. Bush ’ s administration , but who has never held political office .
Lincoln won with 56 % of the vote , about 12,000 more ballots in his favor than Tubbs .
Critics of the incumbent say voters rejected him because of problems in the city including poverty and homelessness and a sense that Tubbs was more interested in national affairs than local ones .
Tubbs said he believed he ’ d been misrepresented in a “ four-year misinformation campaign ” on social media @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Facebook whose writers were intent on his ouster .
Politicians don ’ t like losing , but for Tubbs , 30 , some predict his recent failure may open bigger doors for a young and rising star in Democratic ranks .
“ He obviously has a Rolodex that is different than a lot of people , ” said Democratic political consultant Andrew Acosta , who has worked for other candidates in the San Joaquin Valley , but not Tubbs .
Tubbs has a personal relationship with Vice President-elect Kamala Harris , has worked @ @ @ @ @ @ @ including homelessness , supported Democratic presidential contender Michael Bloomberg early in the primary and interned at the Obama White House .
Oprah Winfrey was one of his early political donors .
“ He should not be written off , ” said Steve Maviglio , a Democratic political consultant in Sacramento .
“ The guy reminds me of Bill Clinton .
He , like Bill Clinton , had a very tough loss ... but I think he ’ s super smart , super energetic , well-liked — apparently not by the voters of Stockton @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and political circles.
” Maviglio , Acosta and others said they think Tubbs will bounce back into political life without stigma from the ballot box beating — especially at a time when the Biden-Harris win could draw Californians to Washington to serve in the new administration and create a shuffle in state opportunities .
The rout , they said , is likely not the end of Tubbs ’ political prospects if he chooses to run for another office , or work for another politician in the interim .
“ With the Biden administration @ @ @ @ @ @ @ be well-positioned to do other things , ” said Acosta .
One of the criticisms Tubbs faced during the election — that he spent too much time away from Stockton , and on issues that gained him more notoriety outside its boundaries than praise within them — may be key to predicting his future success .
Tubbs has become a leading national voice on universal basic income , having started a high-profile pilot project for it in Stockton in 2019 using Silicon Valley philanthropic dollars .
That program , which is still running @ @ @ @ @ @ @ $ 500 a month .
In 2020 , Tubbs furthered that idea by creating Mayors for a Guaranteed Income , bringing together more than 25 mayors across the U.S. to push for a federal guaranteed income .
When he began the Stockton pilot , Tubbs said he had had “ many touch points ” with Harris about the effort .
Harris edged up on discussing a basic income during the presidential primary , with a proposal for “ livable incomes ” that would give some families cash grants , and in May introduced @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to those struggling during the pandemic .
Many conservatives have mocked the idea of guaranteed income .
When it was clear Tubbs was losing right after election day , GOP consultant Jon Fleischman tweeted , “ This is the smart guy who thought just handing out taxpayer money to people was a good idea .
I guess he didn ’ t give it away to enough people ... ” But with the pandemic shutdown continuing to devastate the economy and unemployment high among vulnerable workers , the idea is likely to remain in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ conceded , two pieces on universal basic income and Stockton ran in national media , one in The Economist marking it as an idea of importance for the coming year .
Tubbs said he has already started thinking of his next move , and Washington is something he ’ s discussed with his family .
Though he hasn ’ t made any decisions and didn ’ t talk about specific offers , Stockton may soon become his past — Tubbs said he expected to make a call before the end of the year @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , ” he said .
For the immediate future , he ’ s promised to help Lincoln move into office .
Though Lincoln did not return a request for comment , he posted an online message thanking Tubbs .
“ I want to extend my appreciation to Mayor Tubbs for his eight years of service to our community , ” Lincoln said .
“ I look forward to collaborating with him on a smooth transition and hope he will continue to enrich our city with his ingenuity and passion for Stockton.
” Tubbs @ @ @ @ @ @ @ he wants to continue working on issues of equity and equality .
He grew up on Stockton ’ s poor south side with a single mother and an incarcerated father .
After graduating from Stanford , he returned and successfully ran for city council , driven in part by the murder of a cousin in Stockton .
He first ran for mayor in 2016 , becoming both the youngest and first Black person to hold that office .
“ It ’ s always right to be in a good fight and I am @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Tubbs .
“ Today , tomorrow , 50 years from now , 100 years from now , that is all I am going to be doing .
”

When Stockton Mayor Michael Tubbs conceded defeat Tuesday in a bid for a second term in this troubled San Joaquin Valley city, it was a painful moment he had not expected.
“As someone who is used to winning, it’s always difficult when things don’t work out in your favor,” Tubbs said Wednesday from Los Angeles, where he was in town for meetings. “I put my heart and soul into my job, so I took it very personally.”
Tubbs lost to Republican challenger Kevin Lincoln, a military veteran who served on Marine One, the presidential helicopter, during George W. Bush’s administration, but who has never held political office. Lincoln won with 56% of the vote, about 12,000 more ballots in his favor than Tubbs.
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Critics of the incumbent say voters rejected him because of problems in the city including poverty and homelessness and a sense that Tubbs was more interested in national affairs than local ones.
Tubbs said he believed he’d been misrepresented in a “four-year misinformation campaign” on social media, including by a political page on Facebook whose writers were intent on his ouster.
Politicians don’t like losing, but for Tubbs, 30, some predict his recent failure may open bigger doors for a young and rising star in Democratic ranks.
“He obviously has a Rolodex that is different than a lot of people,” said Democratic political consultant Andrew Acosta, who has worked for other candidates in the San Joaquin Valley, but not Tubbs.
Tubbs has a personal relationship with Vice President-elect Kamala Harris, has worked with Gov. Gavin Newsom on issues including homelessness, supported Democratic presidential contender Michael Bloomberg early in the primary and interned at the Obama White House. Oprah Winfrey was one of his early political donors.
“He should not be written off,” said Steve Maviglio, a Democratic political consultant in Sacramento. “The guy reminds me of Bill Clinton. He, like Bill Clinton, had a very tough loss ... but I think he’s super smart, super energetic, well-liked — apparently not by the voters of Stockton — but well-liked in the policy groups and political circles.”
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Maviglio, Acosta and others said they think Tubbs will bounce back into political life without stigma from the ballot box beating — especially at a time when the Biden-Harris win could draw Californians to Washington to serve in the new administration and create a shuffle in state opportunities. The rout, they said, is likely not the end of Tubbs’ political prospects if he chooses to run for another office, or work for another politician in the interim.
“With the Biden administration and where we are, he would be well-positioned to do other things,” said Acosta.
One of the criticisms Tubbs faced during the election — that he spent too much time away from Stockton, and on issues that gained him more notoriety outside its boundaries than praise within them — may be key to predicting his future success.
Tubbs has become a leading national voice on universal basic income, having started a high-profile pilot project for it in Stockton in 2019 using Silicon Valley philanthropic dollars. That program, which is still running, gives 130 residents cash payments of $500 a month. In 2020, Tubbs furthered that idea by creating Mayors for a Guaranteed Income, bringing together more than 25 mayors across the U.S. to push for a federal guaranteed income.
When he began the Stockton pilot, Tubbs said he had had “many touch points” with Harris about the effort. Harris edged up on discussing a basic income during the presidential primary, with a proposal for “livable incomes” that would give some families cash grants, and in May introduced legislation to give $2,000 a month to those struggling during the pandemic.
Many conservatives have mocked the idea of guaranteed income. When it was clear Tubbs was losing right after election day, GOP consultant Jon Fleischman tweeted, “This is the smart guy who thought just handing out taxpayer money to people was a good idea. I guess he didn’t give it away to enough people ...”
But with the pandemic shutdown continuing to devastate the economy and unemployment high among vulnerable workers, the idea is likely to remain in the political dialogue. The day Tubbs conceded, two pieces on universal basic income and Stockton ran in national media, one in The Economist marking it as an idea of importance for the coming year.
Tubbs said he has already started thinking of his next move, and Washington is something he’s discussed with his family. Though he hasn’t made any decisions and didn’t talk about specific offers, Stockton may soon become his past — Tubbs said he expected to make a call before the end of the year.
“All options are open now,” he said.
For the immediate future , he’s promised to help Lincoln move into office. Though Lincoln did not return a request for comment, he posted an online message thanking Tubbs.
“I want to extend my appreciation to Mayor Tubbs for his eight years of service to our community,” Lincoln said. “I look forward to collaborating with him on a smooth transition and hope he will continue to enrich our city with his ingenuity and passion for Stockton.”
Tubbs said regardless of his next title, he wants to continue working on issues of equity and equality. He grew up on Stockton’s poor south side with a single mother and an incarcerated father. After graduating from Stanford, he returned and successfully ran for city council, driven in part by the murder of a cousin in Stockton. He first ran for mayor in 2016, becoming both the youngest and first Black person to hold that office.
“It’s always right to be in a good fight and I am more resolute than ever,” said Tubbs. “Today, tomorrow, 50 years from now, 100 years from now, that is all I am going to be doing.”


latimes--2020-11-19--L.A. officials are still not sure how or why COVID cases are skyrocketing. It's a huge handicap

Los Angeles officials in recent days have pleaded with residents to cancel social gatherings and announced limited hours for businesses in an effort to counteract a swift rise in coronavirus cases .
But the clear messaging belies a murkier reality : They don ’ t fully understand why so many people are becoming infected .
For months , Angelenos have been prohibited from exercising inside gyms , watching movies in theaters and dining indoors at restaurants .
It was with these restrictions in place that L.A. County in early October recorded its fewest cases since the spring .
“ The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ approaching our worst numbers with the same things open as [ when ] we … had our best numbers ” a few weeks ago , L.A. Mayor Eric Garcetti said this week .
The virus itself hasn ’ t changed , and there has been little relaxation of the rules .
Interviews conducted with people who have recently tested positive for the coronavirus don ’ t show any significant shifts in behavior compared with a month ago , such as more visits to restaurants or other businesses , said Dr. Jeffrey Gunzenhauser , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
For the vast majority of people sick with COVID-19 in L.A. County , officials can not determine where they contracted the virus , he said .
This mirrors national data showing that fewer than half of people with the virus know where they caught it .
“ Very often , these reported places they ’ ve been , we have no knowledge of other people there being infected .
So they don ’ t know and we don ’ t know where they got the infection , ” Gunzenhauser said .
“ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ answer.
” The data limitations speak to the challenges the COVID-19 pandemic poses for contact tracing , a tried-and-true method that public health departments around the world use to track how an infection spreads .
With so many people sick with COVID-19 or infected but showing no symptoms , identifying where someone contracted the virus becomes nearly impossible .
“ Contact tracing just can ’ t keep up with it , ” said Kevin Malotte , a Cal State Long Beach professor emeritus of epidemiology .
“ You have to make kind of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is going on.
” There is plenty of other information pointing to indoor environments as primary sources of coronavirus spread , particularly when people don ’ t wear masks .
The more time people spend together and the closer together they are , the more the risk increases .
In L.A. County , recent clusters of cases have been linked to dinner parties and other kinds of indoor social gatherings , including those celebrating the Dodgers and Lakers championships , officials say .
Meanwhile , the number of new people being infected with @ @ @ @ @ @ @ than doubled in the last few weeks .
Additionally , a countywide survey conducted by USC found that instances of people coming in close contact with others they don ’ t live with , and also gathering in groups of 10 or more , rose steadily in September and October .
At the end of October , 60 % of those surveyed had had close contact with people outside their household in the previous seven days .
“ We should each ask ourselves and those we care about to commit making the changes @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of suffering and death from COVID-19 , ” Barbara Ferrer , the L.A. County director of public health , said Wednesday .
“ Change any plans for indoor gatherings that involve people not in your household.
” The trends are particularly worrying given the approach of Thanksgiving , when people traditionally host large gatherings .
Ferrer said that if cases and hospitalizations continue to rise at their current rate , the county will reach a level of transmission that would prompt a stay-at-home order in early December lasting at least three weeks .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ prevent the county from reaching that threshold .
“ I hope with every single bone in my body that we don ’ t get there , ” she said .
One of the tools to prevent a surge is contact tracing , by which public health departments gather information on people who have fallen sick to notify others infected and understand patterns of spread .
When someone tests positive for the coronavirus , the doctor or lab notifies the public health department , which then reaches out to the patient to gather information @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , 99.7 % of those infected are contacted by the Department of Public Health within 24 hours , according to county data .
But once the contact tracers reach out , only about 63 % of people agree to complete the interview , greatly limiting officials ’ information .
In an effort to address the issue , a long-standing problem during the pandemic , L.A. officials began offering $ 20 gift cards to people who agreed to be interviewed .
When people comply , the tracers can collect data on others the sick @ @ @ @ @ @ @ goal is to notify them promptly so they can quarantine and be tested .
Between Nov. 4 and Nov. 10 , 8,290 people who tested positive for the coronavirus were interviewed by county workers .
An additional 5,319 contacts of people infected were identified to be notified of their exposure , though only 72 % agreed to complete an interview .
Gunzenhauser said the department is developing field teams to send to the most affected neighborhoods to try to approach people face-to-face in the hope of obtaining more interviews .
But even when @ @ @ @ @ @ @ doesn ’ t always paint a clear picture .
The interviewer asks patients where they went for 14 days before falling sick , because it can take up to two weeks for someone to show symptoms after being infected .
But with so many people in the county sick , and so many people asymptomatic , the long list of places they may have visited doesn ’ t usually provide an obvious culprit , Gunzenhauser said .
Interviews show that people who have recently tested positive visited places such as restaurants , shops @ @ @ @ @ @ @ frequency as people who tested positive a month ago , according to Gunzenhauser .
There ’ s been a small increase in the percentage of people who had attended a social gathering where someone else had COVID — from less than 1 % to 1.5 % — but that “ certainly doesn ’ t explain the jump , ” he said .
A recent study in the Annals of Internal Medicine found that transmission most often occurs indoors in poorly ventilated spaces , with a large portion originating from people who don ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that people are most infectious the day before their symptoms begin , making it even more likely that infections are being transmitted by seemingly healthy people , said the study ’ s lead author , Dr. Eric Meyerowitz , professor at the Albert Einstein College of Medicine in New York .
“ The really challenging thing about this virus in particular , in contrast to some other viruses , [ is that ] your viral load is rising before the onset of symptoms , so you are infectious before you maybe even know @ @ @ @ @ @ @ he said .
“ When you ’ re thinking about is it possible to make some of these indoor settings … safer if you did symptoms screening , that really wouldn ’ t be sufficient.
” In L.A. County , the likely explanation for the recent upswings , Gunzenhauser said , is that the coronavirus somehow became more prevalent in the community in the last several weeks , perhaps because of the slight uptick in gatherings or people spending more time indoors because of cold weather .
Other experts suggested that the sun @ @ @ @ @ @ @ or that cases from other parts of the country where COVID-19 is surging were imported to L.A. County .
But those small changes had ripple effects .
As more people fall sick in the community , each interaction people have when they leave their homes becomes more dangerous , Gunzenhauser said .
“ All it takes is a slight change in some behavior or practice , and the virus is going to take advantage of that , ” he said .
“ Interactions that at the end of August would not have led @ @ @ @ @ @ @ we have quite a few more people infected.
” Gunzenhauser said this phenomenon has probably also fueled a rise in workplace outbreaks .
Outbreaks at workplaces — not including healthcare settings or food facilities — began to surge in L.A. County in late September , with a 70 % increase in outbreaks in the second half of that month , and have stayed elevated since .
“ Cases are going up in general , so worksites are going up , ” he said .
“ We can do all we can to build @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the community transmission where the worksites are doubles or triples , then the risk just gets higher .
”

Los Angeles officials in recent days have pleaded with residents to cancel social gatherings and announced limited hours for businesses in an effort to counteract a swift rise in coronavirus cases. But the clear messaging belies a murkier reality: They don’t fully understand why so many people are becoming infected.
For months, Angelenos have been prohibited from exercising inside gyms, watching movies in theaters and dining indoors at restaurants. It was with these restrictions in place that L.A. County in early October recorded its fewest cases since the spring.
“The irony about right now is we are approaching our worst numbers with the same things open as [when] we … had our best numbers” a few weeks ago, L.A. Mayor Eric Garcetti said this week.
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The virus itself hasn’t changed, and there has been little relaxation of the rules. Interviews conducted with people who have recently tested positive for the coronavirus don’t show any significant shifts in behavior compared with a month ago, such as more visits to restaurants or other businesses, said Dr. Jeffrey Gunzenhauser, L.A. County’s chief medical officer.
For the vast majority of people sick with COVID-19 in L.A. County, officials cannot determine where they contracted the virus, he said. This mirrors national data showing that fewer than half of people with the virus know where they caught it.
“Very often, these reported places they’ve been, we have no knowledge of other people there being infected. So they don’t know and we don’t know where they got the infection,” Gunzenhauser said. “We certainly wish we had a good answer.”
The data limitations speak to the challenges the COVID-19 pandemic poses for contact tracing, a tried-and-true method that public health departments around the world use to track how an infection spreads. With so many people sick with COVID-19 or infected but showing no symptoms, identifying where someone contracted the virus becomes nearly impossible.
“Contact tracing just can’t keep up with it,” said Kevin Malotte, a Cal State Long Beach professor emeritus of epidemiology. “You have to make kind of educated guesses as to what you think is going on.”
There is plenty of other information pointing to indoor environments as primary sources of coronavirus spread, particularly when people don’t wear masks. The more time people spend together and the closer together they are, the more the risk increases.
In L.A. County, recent clusters of cases have been linked to dinner parties and other kinds of indoor social gatherings, including those celebrating the Dodgers and Lakers championships, officials say. Meanwhile, the number of new people being infected with the coronavirus in the county has more than doubled in the last few weeks.
Additionally, a countywide survey conducted by USC found that instances of people coming in close contact with others they don’t live with, and also gathering in groups of 10 or more, rose steadily in September and October. At the end of October, 60% of those surveyed had had close contact with people outside their household in the previous seven days.
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World & Nation Confirmed U.S. death toll from coronavirus tops 250,000, the highest in world The confirmed U.S. death toll from the coronavirus now exceeds 250,000, the highest in world, according to Johns Hopkins University’s count.
“We should each ask ourselves and those we care about to commit making the changes we know will prevent a great deal of suffering and death from COVID-19,” Barbara Ferrer, the L.A. County director of public health, said Wednesday. “Change any plans for indoor gatherings that involve people not in your household.”
The trends are particularly worrying given the approach of Thanksgiving, when people traditionally host large gatherings. Ferrer said that if cases and hospitalizations continue to rise at their current rate, the county will reach a level of transmission that would prompt a stay-at-home order in early December lasting at least three weeks.
But she added that quick action can prevent the county from reaching that threshold.
“I hope with every single bone in my body that we don’t get there,” she said.
One of the tools to prevent a surge is contact tracing, by which public health departments gather information on people who have fallen sick to notify others infected and understand patterns of spread.
When someone tests positive for the coronavirus, the doctor or lab notifies the public health department, which then reaches out to the patient to gather information about their illness. In L.A. County, 99.7% of those infected are contacted by the Department of Public Health within 24 hours, according to county data.
But once the contact tracers reach out, only about 63% of people agree to complete the interview, greatly limiting officials’ information. In an effort to address the issue, a long-standing problem during the pandemic, L.A. officials began offering $20 gift cards to people who agreed to be interviewed.
When people comply, the tracers can collect data on others the sick person may have also infected. The goal is to notify them promptly so they can quarantine and be tested.
Between Nov. 4 and Nov. 10, 8,290 people who tested positive for the coronavirus were interviewed by county workers. An additional 5,319 contacts of people infected were identified to be notified of their exposure, though only 72% agreed to complete an interview.
Gunzenhauser said the department is developing field teams to send to the most affected neighborhoods to try to approach people face-to-face in the hope of obtaining more interviews. But even when the necessary information is provided, it doesn’t always paint a clear picture.
The interviewer asks patients where they went for 14 days before falling sick, because it can take up to two weeks for someone to show symptoms after being infected. But with so many people in the county sick, and so many people asymptomatic, the long list of places they may have visited doesn’t usually provide an obvious culprit, Gunzenhauser said.
Interviews show that people who have recently tested positive visited places such as restaurants, shops, workplaces and churches at the same frequency as people who tested positive a month ago, according to Gunzenhauser.
There’s been a small increase in the percentage of people who had attended a social gathering where someone else had COVID — from less than 1% to 1.5% — but that “certainly doesn’t explain the jump,” he said.
A recent study in the Annals of Internal Medicine found that transmission most often occurs indoors in poorly ventilated spaces, with a large portion originating from people who don’t show symptoms.
Science & Medicine Four takeaways from the race for a COVID-19 vaccine There are still many unknowns when it comes to the pandemic, but the early signs of success for two experimental COVID-19 vaccines make a few things clear.
Available data suggest that people are most infectious the day before their symptoms begin, making it even more likely that infections are being transmitted by seemingly healthy people, said the study’s lead author, Dr. Eric Meyerowitz, professor at the Albert Einstein College of Medicine in New York.
“The really challenging thing about this virus in particular, in contrast to some other viruses, [is that] your viral load is rising before the onset of symptoms, so you are infectious before you maybe even know that you have the virus,” he said. “When you’re thinking about is it possible to make some of these indoor settings … safer if you did symptoms screening, that really wouldn’t be sufficient.”
In L.A. County, the likely explanation for the recent upswings, Gunzenhauser said, is that the coronavirus somehow became more prevalent in the community in the last several weeks, perhaps because of the slight uptick in gatherings or people spending more time indoors because of cold weather.
Other experts suggested that the sun setting earlier has forced more people indoors or that cases from other parts of the country where COVID-19 is surging were imported to L.A. County.
But those small changes had ripple effects. As more people fall sick in the community, each interaction people have when they leave their homes becomes more dangerous, Gunzenhauser said.
“All it takes is a slight change in some behavior or practice, and the virus is going to take advantage of that,” he said. “Interactions that at the end of August would not have led to an infection now are, because we have quite a few more people infected.”
Gunzenhauser said this phenomenon has probably also fueled a rise in workplace outbreaks. Outbreaks at workplaces — not including healthcare settings or food facilities — began to surge in L.A. County in late September, with a 70% increase in outbreaks in the second half of that month, and have stayed elevated since.
“Cases are going up in general, so worksites are going up,” he said. “We can do all we can to build in good infection control, but if the community transmission where the worksites are doubles or triples, then the risk just gets higher.”


latimes--2020-11-19--Here's how we found places in California with rules about 'crime-free housing'

To understand the spread of crime-free housing policies in California , The Times searched the municipal codes of all 539 cities and counties in the state and scoured local police department websites .
Most California local government municipal codes are published on third-party websites , including municode.com , codebook.com and qcode.us , and The Times used a variety of search terms to identify potential crime-free housing laws .
For municipal codes that weren ’ t available on those sites , The Times examined each city ’ s individually .
Similarly , The Times used a variety of search terms to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ crime-free housing trainings for landlords .
The Times defined crime-free housing polices as those that encourage landlords to evict or exclude tenants who have had some level of interaction with law enforcement .
To build its list , The Times incorporated research from the nonprofit groups the National Housing Law Project , Lawyers ’ Committee for Civil Rights Under Law and American Civil Liberties Union of Southern California .
The Times also consulted with Kathryn Ramsey , an assistant professor at the University of Memphis School of Law who has written about crime-free @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
To measure the relationship between crime-free policies and shifting demographics , The Times analyzed data from the National Historical Geographic Information System and the U.S. Census Bureau to track population changes from 1990 to 2018 .
The review found that most California cities with the largest increases of Black and Latino residents during that time had approved the restrictive housing rules .
The Times also obtained five years of eviction data from the California Unlawful Detainer Pilot Program , which allows city attorneys in Long Beach , Los Angeles , Oakland and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ weapons arrests .
The Times then compared the data with demographics of the renter population in each city .
Outside research on the demographics of those targeted for eviction and enforcement under additional crime-free housing programs in Oakland and Los Angeles supplemented The Times ’ reporting .

To understand the spread of crime-free housing policies in California, The Times searched the municipal codes of all 539 cities and counties in the state and scoured local police department websites.
Most California local government municipal codes are published on third-party websites, including municode.com, codebook.com and qcode.us, and The Times used a variety of search terms to identify potential crime-free housing laws. For municipal codes that weren’t available on those sites, The Times examined each city’s individually. Similarly, The Times used a variety of search terms to identify which local police departments are advertising crime-free housing trainings for landlords.
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The Times defined crime-free housing polices as those that encourage landlords to evict or exclude tenants who have had some level of interaction with law enforcement. To build its list, The Times incorporated research from the nonprofit groups the National Housing Law Project, Lawyers’ Committee for Civil Rights Under Law and American Civil Liberties Union of Southern California. The Times also consulted with Kathryn Ramsey, an assistant professor at the University of Memphis School of Law who has written about crime-free housing programs, to finalize the tally.
To measure the relationship between crime-free policies and shifting demographics, The Times analyzed data from the National Historical Geographic Information System and the U.S. Census Bureau to track population changes from 1990 to 2018. The review found that most California cities with the largest increases of Black and Latino residents during that time had approved the restrictive housing rules.
The Times also obtained five years of eviction data from the California Unlawful Detainer Pilot Program, which allows city attorneys in Long Beach, Los Angeles, Oakland and Sacramento to initiate evictions after drug or weapons arrests. The Times then compared the data with demographics of the renter population in each city. Outside research on the demographics of those targeted for eviction and enforcement under additional crime-free housing programs in Oakland and Los Angeles supplemented The Times’ reporting.