livescience--2020-10-22--Coronavirus outbreak: Live updates

Coronavirus outbreak: Live updates

Refresh
90-year-old woman in the UK receives first dose of Pfizer vaccine, FDA review confirms vaccine is safe and effective A 90-year-old woman (who will turn 91 next week) became the first in the world to be given Pfizer's coronavirus vaccine outside of clinical trials, according to the BBC. Margaret Keenan, who is originally from Northern Ireland, was given the vaccine at the University Hospital in Coventry, England. She received the first of 800,000 doses expected to be administered in the U.K. in the coming weeks, according to the BBC. "I feel so privileged to be the first person vaccinated against Covid-19," Keenan said, according to the BBC."It's the best early birthday present I could wish for because it means I can finally look forward to spending time with my family and friends in the new year after being on my own for most of the year." "My advice to anyone offered the vaccine is to take it. If I can have it at 90, then you can have it too," she added. Up to four million doses of Pfizer's vaccine is expected to be given to people in the U.K. by the end of the month. Meanwhile, a 53-page Food and Drug Administration (FDA) review published Tuesday (Dec. 8) confirmed that Pfizer's vaccine is safe and effective, according to The Washington Post.
Pfizer's COVID-19 vaccine starts to work just 10 days after 1st dose Pfizer's new COVID-19 vaccine starts to protect people from the novel coronavirus just 10 days after the first dose, according to new documents from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA). The documents were released on Tuesday (Dec. 8), two days before a meeting of the FDA's vaccine advisory panel, which will vote on whether to recommend authorization of the vaccine in the U.S, Live Science reported . The FDA analyzed data from Pfizer's phase 3 clinical trial, which included some 44,000 people in the United States, Brazil, Argentina, Germany and Turkey, about half of whom received the vaccine while the other half received a placebo. Both groups received two shots, 21 days apart. About 10 days after the first dose, there was a noticeable drop-off in new COVID-19 cases in the vaccine group compared with the placebo group, indicating that even one dose provides some protection, the report said. However, scientists don't know how long the protection from a single dose will last, so it will still be important for people to receive two shots, according to The New York Times . Overall, the vaccine was 52% effective after the first dose and 95% effective after the second dose, the report said.
People with significant allergies should avoid Pfizer vaccine, UK warns The U.K.'s Regulatory Agency is advising people with a history of "significant" allergic reactions to avoid Pfizer's coronavirus vaccine, after two National Health Service members developed severe allergic reactions to it on Tuesday (Dec. 8), Live Science reported. "As is common with new vaccines the MHRA (Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency) have advised on a precautionary basis that people with a significant history of allergic reactions do not receive this vaccination after two people with a history of significant allergic reactions responded adversely yesterday," Stephen Powis, the national medical director for England's National Health Service said in a statement on Wednesday (Dec. 9). Both workers have a history of severe allergies and carry adrenaline auto injectors (such as EpiPens) around with them, according to The Guardian. Shortly after receiving the vaccine, both NHS workers developed anaphylaxis-like symptoms, or severe allergic reactions, but have recovered after receiving treatment. The MHRA will investigate further and Pfizer and BioNTech will support their investigation, according to Reuters. "Allergic reaction occurs with quite a number of vaccines, and perhaps even more frequently with drugs. So it is not unexpected," Stephen Evans, a professor of pharmacoepidemiology at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine said in remarks to journalists published by Britain's Science Media Center. “What would be wise, as the MHRA have already advised, would be for anyone who has known severe allergic reaction such that they need to carry an EpiPen, to delay having a vaccination until the reason for the allergic reaction has been clarified," he said. For the general population this does not mean that they would need to be anxious about receiving the vaccination, he added. "One has to remember that even things like marmite [a quintessential British food spread] can cause unexpected severe allergic reactions.”
Canada approves Pfizer's COVID-19 vaccine Canada has authorized Pfizer's new COVID-19 vaccine, with the first doses expected to be administered there as early as next week. Health Canada, the country's health regulatory agency, said in a statement on Wednesday (Dec. 9) that it had determined that the vaccine "meets the Department's stringent safety, efficacy and quality requirements for use in Canada," according to CTV News . "We expect vaccines to arrive maybe as early as Monday [Dec. 14]. It takes time to prepare the vaccine," said Maj.-Gen. Dany Fortin, the top military general leading the vaccine rollout for the Public Health Agency of Canada, according to CTV News. The first doses could be administered by the middle of next week, he said. Canada is the third country in the world to authorize the Pfizer vaccine, following the United Kingdom and Bahrain. The country should receive up to 249,000 doses of the vaccine by the end of December, and has purchased 20 million doses total, with the option to purchase more, CTV News reported.
Daily COVID-19 death toll in the U.S. reaches record-high, surpassed 9/11 On Wednesday (Dec. 9), the U.S. recorded 3,124 new COVID-19 deaths, the highest daily death toll to date, according to CNN . In comparison, 2,977 people were killed in the 9/11 attacks. The U.S. has now recorded 280,488 deaths related to the virus, according to The COVID Tracking Project . A forecast from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention predicts that the total death toll can increase to between 332,000 and 362,000 by January 2, according to CNN. There are currently 106,671 people hospitalized with the virus in the U.S.; 20,903 of them are currently in the ICU and 7,621 are currently on a ventilator, according to the COVID Tracking Project. On Thursday (Dec. 10), the Vaccines and Related Biological Products Advisory Committee is set to meet to discuss an emergency use authorization for the Pfizer-BioNTech coronavirus vaccine.
FDA panel recommends authorization of Pfizer's COVID-19 vaccine A panel of experts for the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has recommended that the agency authorize Pfizer's new COVID-19 vaccine in the United States. On Thursday (Dec. 10), the panel voted 17 to 4 to recommend that the vaccine receive emergency use authorization (EUA) for people ages 16 and older, according to The New York Times . The FDA typically follows the advice of its panels, and so today's vote is an important step towards the vaccine's authorization. It is anticipated that the agency will officially authorize the vaccine on Saturday (Dec. 12), the Times reported. Several countries have already authorized Pfizer's vaccine, including Canada, the United Kingdom and Bahrain.
Vaccine approval could come this weekend, as U.S. continues to record high daily death tolls On Thursday (Dec. 10), the U.S. recorded another 2,902 COVID-19 deaths, a day after the country set a record of 3,253 deaths, according to Reuters . “Probably for the next 60 to 90 days, we’re going to have more deaths per day than we had on 9/11 or we had at Pearl Harbor,” Dr. Robert Redfield, the director of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, told the Council on Foreign Relations on Thursday, according to Reuters. "The reality is the vaccine approval this week is not going to really impact that, I think, to any degree for the next 60 days." On Thursday, the Vaccines and Related Biological Products Advisory Committee discussed, voted and recommended that the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) should grant an emergency use authorization for Pfizer's coronavirus vaccine. The Pfizer vaccine has already been approved in the U.K. and in Canada, and FDA approval for use in the U.S. could come this weekend.
Australia abandons local COVID-19 vaccine after it caused false-positive HIV tests An Australian COVID-19 vaccine that had shown promising results in early trials is being abandoned after researchers found that the shot caused false-positive results on HIV tests. On Friday (Dec. 11), Australian officials said they had canceled an order for some 51 million doses of the vaccine, which was being developed by The University of Queensland and CSL Ltd., a local biotech company, according to The New York Times . In an early trial with 216 participants, the vaccine appeared to be safe and to produce a robust immune response against COVID-19, according to a statement from CSL . But some volunteers falsely tested positive for HIV, which officials feared would undermine trust in the vaccine, the Times reported. The vaccine contained small fragments of an HIV protein, which helped stabilize the vaccine. Some of the participants developed antibodies against these fragments, and these antibodies triggered false positive results on some HIV tests. It's important to note that there is no way for the vaccine to cause an HIV infection, because it contains harmless fragments of the virus.
ICU nurse in New York becomes first person in the US to receive a coronavirus vaccine outside of clinical trials New York, the worst-hit state at the start of the pandemic, just became the first to administer a coronavirus vaccine outside of clinical trials, kicking off a long, massive effort to vaccinate the American people, Live Science reported. Around 9 a.m. E.T. on Monday (Dec. 14), the very first dose of Pfizer and BioNTech's coronavirus vaccine was given to Sandra Lindsay, an intensive care nurse in Long Island Jewish Medical Center in Queens, New York, according to The New York Times. This comes as the U.S. continues to battle a massive wave of the virus that has more than 109,000 people currently hospitalized, according to The COVID Tracking Project. Since the start of the pandemic, New York has recorded more than 780,000 cases of COVID-19 and more than 35,100 deaths, according to The Times. "This vaccine is exciting because I believe this is the weapon that will end the war," Gov. Andrew Cuomo said during a live broadcast of the first vaccination. "It's the beginning of the last chapter of the book, but now we just have to do it."
FDA analysis confirms Moderna's vaccine is safe and effective, emergency authorization is likely to come Friday A new briefing document from the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) released on Tuesday (Dec. 15) confirmed that Moderna's COVID-19 vaccine is safe and effective, according to NPR . Moderna's COVID-19 vaccine is 94% effective and has "a favorable safety profile," according to the document. A panel of experts is set to meet on Thursday (Dec. 17) to discuss the effectiveness and safety of the vaccine and vote on whether or not the FDA should grant emergency approval to the vaccine. Last week, the same panel voted that the FDA should grant emergency approval to Pfizer's coronavirus vaccine; the authorization came a day late and the first doses were given on Monday (Dec. 15). The FDA will likely approve Moderna's vaccine for emergency use on Friday (Dec. 18), according to The New York Times .
FDA authorizes first over-the-counter COVID-19 test The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has authorized the first over-the-counter COVID-19 test, which can be done at home and does not need a prescription. The test, made by the Australia-based company Ellume, provides results in as little as 20 minutes, according to a statement from the FDA . It is a "lateral flow antigen test," meaning it works in a similar way to a home pregnancy test, by running a "liquid sample along a surface with reactive molecules," the FDA said. The test works in conjunction with a smartphone app. Users take a nasal swab and place their sample in an analyzer, which communicates to the smartphone app via Bluetooth. The results are delivered through the app, and also reported to public health authorities (based on a user's zip code) through a secure cloud connection, the company said . Ellume is ramping up production of its test, and expects to produce three million tests in January 2021, and 20 million within the first half of 2021.
A wild mink tested positive for the coronavirus, it may be the first wild animal to have a confirmed case A wild mink in Utah may be the first "free-ranging, native wild animal" confirmed to be infected with SARS-CoV-2, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), Live Science reported. The mink was found near a mink farm and likely picked up the infection from the farmed mink. There's no evidence that the virus spread to other minks or wild animals; but if the virus does begin circulating in wild animals, it could pick up mutations that COVID-19 vaccines may not protect well against if it spreads back to humans, according to the report. "If it does [establish a reservoir], then we've got a long-term issue here, where this virus has the potential to be with us for millennia," Sarah Olson, associate director of the health program at the Wildlife Conservation Society, told Vox. The U.S. Department of Agriculture's Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service has screened other animal species for the virus near mink farms in Utah, Michigan and Wisconsin, but all of them have tested negative so far, according to a statement.
An FDA advisory panel will meet today to vote on whether to recommend Moderna's coronavirus vaccine for emergency approval On Thursday (Dec. 17), a Food and Drug Administration (FDA) advisory committee will meet to determine whether to recommend that Moderna’s coronavirus vaccine for emergency approval, according to The New York Times . This panel, composed of independent experts, will vote on whether to recommend the vaccine after hearing from the company, FDA scientists and the public, according to The Times. Last week, the same panel of experts met to discuss Pfizer’s coronavirus vaccine and voted to recommend emergency authorization; the authorization came the next day. There have now been more than 16.9 million cases of COVID-19 in the U.S. and more than 307,000 deaths, according to the Johns Hopkins dashboard . There are currently 113,090 people hospitalized across the country with more than 21,900 of them in the ICU and 7,778 on a ventilator, according to The COVID Tracking Project .
California becomes new epicenter of COVID-19 in U.S. California, once praised for its early pandemic response, is now the new U.S. hotspot for COVID-19 infections. The state has reported an alarming surge in cases, breaking previous records for daily cases. On Thursday (Dec. 17), the state reported some 50,000 COVID-19 infections in 24 hours, and nearly 100,000 in 48 hours, according to The Washington Post . That's more than the daily cases reported in many countries, including India, Germany and Britain, the Post reported. The state also set a record for daily deaths on Thursday, with 379 fatalities reported, up from the previous high of 293. Capacity in intensive care units has also dropped dramatically, with hospitals in Southern California reporting zero percent capacity on Thursday. "I want to be very clear: Our hospitals are under siege, and our model shows no end in sight," said Christina Ghaly, director of Los Angeles County's Department of Health Services, the Post reported.
FDA expected to authorize Moderna's vaccine on Friday The U.S. Food and Drug Administration is expected to authorize Moderna's COVID-19 vaccine on Friday (Dec. 18). Once authorized, it will be the second coronavirus vaccine to get the green light from the agency in just a week, with Pfizer's vaccine gaining authorization on Dec. 11. Moderna is expected to begin shipping 5.9 million doses of its vaccine on Sunday (Dec. 20), with the first deliveries arriving Monday (Dec. 21), according to The New York Times . Unlike the Pfizer vaccine, Moderna's vaccine does not require storage in extremely cold temperatures, and states are hoping to distribute the vaccine to rural hospitals and community health centers, the Times reported.
COVID-19 cases continue to surge across the U.S. There have now been more than 17 million cases of COVID-19 in the U.S. and more than 300,000 deaths, according to The COVID Tracking Project . There are currently 114,237 people hospitalized across the country and 21,900 people in the ICU. California is facing a massive surge in cases; the state reported 41,012 new COVID-19 cases and 300 new deaths on Thursday (Dec. 17), according to the state's COVID-19 dashboard . By comparison, at the start of November, California was reporting a seven-day average of 4,183 cases, compared to an average of 38,774 on Thursday, according to CNN . "We're experiencing an explosive and very deadly surge," Dr. Barbara Ferrer, Los Angeles County Public Health Director said, according to CNN. Intensive care unit beds are rapidly filling up across the state; there are only 1,234 ICU beds left available in California, according to the dashboard. Current closures across California are impacting around 98% of the state's population, according to CNN.
London and southeast England are under an emergency lockdown Following concerns of a new version of the coronavirus that might be more transmissible, London and most of southeast England are now under an emergency lockdown, according to The New York Times . Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced the lockdown on Saturday (Dec. 19) citing concerns that the mutated virus — which was detected a couple of weeks ago in southeast England — may be as much as 70% more transmissible than previous versions, according to the Times. The new version of the coronavirus is detected in more than 60% of new infections in London and have also been detected in several other countries, according to the Times. But it's not yet clear if this coronavirus version is any more infectious than the last and thorough analyses will need to be conducted before conclusions are made, scientists cautioned. In South Africa, a similar version of the virus has been found in up to 90% of new cases detected since mid-November, according to The Times . It's common for viruses to mutate, and this particular coronavirus has mutated many times since the start of the pandemic. But experts told The Times that it would take years for the virus to mutate enough such that it would make the current vaccines developed to fight COVID-19 ineffective.
Biden gets Pfizer's COVID-19 vaccine President-elect Joe Biden received a dose of Pfizer's new COVID-19 vaccine on Monday (Dec. 21), according to The New York Times . He received the shot on camera at the Christiana Hospital in Newark, Delaware. "I'm doing this to demonstrate that people should be prepared when it's available to take the vaccine. There's nothing to worry about," Biden said.
Antarctica has its 1st COVID-19 outbreak The first COVID-19 cases have been reported in Antarctica , meaning the disease has now spread to every continent in the world. On Tuesday (Dec. 22), Chilean officials reported an outbreak of 36 COVID-19 cases at the Chilean research base General Bernardo O'Higgins Riquelme on the Antarctic Peninsula, according to the BBC . Of these, 26 cases were military personnel and 10 were maintenance workers, the BBC reported. All of these cases have been evacuated from Antarctica to Punta Arenas, Chile, according to The Guardian . Antarctica had been COVID-19 free up until the current outbreak. The continent has no permanent residents, but about 1,000 people, including scientists and other workers, stayed there this past winter, The Guardian reported.
Live updates will continue in 2021!


livescience--2020-10-22--All seniors could get COVID-19 vaccine by end of January, HHS head says

All seniors , health care workers , first responders and vulnerable individuals could be vaccinated against COVID-19 by the end of January , the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services ( HHS ) Secretary Alex Azar told reporters Wednesday ( Oct. 21 ) during a .
But this ambitious timeline rests on a critical factor : enough data to know that the vaccine is safe and effective .
Not even the drug companies conducting late-stage phase 3 clinical trials know yet if their candidate vaccines meet those standards .
The question of `` when '' we will know whether @ @ @ @ @ @ @ will really be dependent on events in the trial .
That 's outside of anyone 's control , '' Azar said .
In order to understand whether or not a potential vaccine is protective against COVID-19 , enough people enrolled in the trial need to be exposed naturally to the virus .
Pharmaceutical giant Pfizer , which is testing one of the leading vaccine candidates in the U.S. , expects to have enough safety and efficacy data by the third week of November .
Assuming the results are positive , the company will @ @ @ @ @ @ @ authorization ( EUA ) in the U.S. , published online Oct. 16 by the company 's Chief Executive Officer Albert Bourla .
But even if vaccines are approved , it 's not clear how long it will take to manufacture and distribute them to everyone in the U.S. As part of the government 's Operation Warp Speed , many of the leading vaccine candidates are already being manufactured prior to trial results .
These vaccines will be ready to be distributed before they are given approval , Azar said .
By the end @ @ @ @ @ @ @ there will be enough FDA-authorized vaccine to be able to vaccinate the most vulnerable individuals , Azar said .
`` Then by the end of January , we expect we 'll have enough to vaccinate all seniors as well as our health care workers and first responders .
And by the end of March to early April , enough vaccine for all Americans who would want to take a vaccine . ''
However , he did not mention children , an age group on which the leading vaccines have not yet been tested @ @ @ @ @ @ @ vaccine much later .
`` Having a vaccine ready is one thing , being able to deliver it is yet another , '' said Dr. William Schaffner , an infectious-diseases specialist at Vanderbilt University in Tennessee .
`` I think that process will take much longer than this timeline . ''
One of the reasons for that is public skepticism on the safety and efficacy of COVID-19 vaccines , which runs high especially in African American and ethnic communities that have been disproportionately affected by the virus , Schaffner told Live Science .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ half of Americans do not trust these vaccines , he said .
That 's because `` this whole process is so politicized , unfortunately . ''
When a vaccine is approved , assuming that it meets the standards of efficacy and safety and has been thoroughly vetted by the Food and Drug Administration 's external advisory panel , `` we 're going to have to work ... very very hard , '' to reassure people that the vaccines are safe , effective and worthwhile to get , Schaffner said .
The first group @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the medical professionals , because they are the ones that will be reaching out to their patients to provide knowledge and reassurance , Schaffner added .
In order for people , including the medical professions who are `` standing back and watching this with great care and skepticism themselves , '' to be convinced , complete and transparent data from these clinical trials will need to be published from day 1 , Schaffner said .
How successful vaccination programs are is `` likely to vary substantially across the country . ''
To get @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the vaccines will first need to pass five independent checkpoints , and so people in the U.S. should `` feel very reassured , '' by the process , Azar said .
First , an independent data safety and monitoring board will examine the data and determine if a vaccine clinical trial has achieved its pre-specified endpoints , or milestones that can clearly show whether or not a vaccine is successful .
If it has , that data will be revealed to the company and the FDA , he said .
Second , the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , and the results will have to meet their own ethical standards before the company submits an EUA .
Third , the FDA will evaluate the vaccine according to two sets of guidance , a general vaccine guidance for COVID-19 and a second EUA guidance .
Fourth , an external advisory committee will advise the FDA and this meeting will be webcast for the public .
And fifth , the FDA 's career scientists will decide whether to approve the vaccine , Azar said .
But there will also be physical roadblocks to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ There are going to be packaging , shipping and handling issues as there are with all vaccines , '' Schaffner said .
Pfizer 's vaccine , for example , needs to be kept at extremely cold temperatures around minus 70 degrees Celsius ( minus 94 degrees Fahrenheit ) .
So the vaccine ca n't just be distributed to doctor 's offices and pharmacies because they do n't have the freezer capacities , Schaffner said .
Instead , states will have to set up vaccination centers , which is currently being planned out .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ how that vaccine is to be used , people need to be trained for that , '' Schaffner said .
`` The other vaccines likely could be distributed by the average clinic and physician 's office and pharmacy but they may come online later . ''
Of course , this is all assuming that these vaccines will be sufficiently effective and safe , he added .
Clinical trials are n't without their own hiccups .
For example , a phase 3 trial of one of the world 's leading coronavirus vaccines , developed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , is still on pause in the U.S. while the FDA reviews the case of a participant in the U.K. trial who developed spinal cord damage .
While these pauses are normal in a clinical trial , it can cause delays .
The 37 volunteers in the AstraZeneca trial in the U.S. , should have already received a second dose of the vaccine , for example , but they did n't due to the pause , according to NBC News .
`` I wish we had a crystal ball , '' Dr. Jay @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and Prevention ( CDC ) deputy director for infectious diseases , said in the briefing .
`` I wish I could say everything is going to go 100 % according to plan , but we also know that we have to be ready for if it does n't . ''
Looking at current trends , `` it 's reasonable to expect that we will have at least one , possibly two products available for the end of the calendar year , '' he added .
Even when the general public is vaccinated , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ % effective .
The FDA requires that the vaccine be at least 60 % effective , Schaffner said .
`` I think the public will be dismayed to know that even though they 've received the vaccine , they 'll have to keep wearing a mask and social distancing , '' for a while until the spread of the coronavirus is substantially diminished , he added .
`` There 's this illusion that once you get vaccinated it 's like putting on a suit of armor , you do n't have to worry @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
`` That 's incorrect . ''

All seniors, health care workers, first responders and vulnerable individuals could be vaccinated against COVID-19 by the end of January, the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) Secretary Alex Azar told reporters Wednesday (Oct. 21) during a news briefing .
But this ambitious timeline rests on a critical factor: enough data to know that the vaccine is safe and effective. Not even the drug companies conducting late-stage phase 3 clinical trials know yet if their candidate vaccines meet those standards.
The question of "when" we will know whether those vaccines are safe and effective "will really be dependent on events in the trial. That's outside of anyone's control," Azar said. In order to understand whether or not a potential vaccine is protective against COVID-19, enough people enrolled in the trial need to be exposed naturally to the virus.
Related: The most promising coronavirus vaccine candidates
Pharmaceutical giant Pfizer, which is testing one of the leading vaccine candidates in the U.S., expects to have enough safety and efficacy data by the third week of November. Assuming the results are positive, the company will at that point apply for emergency use authorization (EUA) in the U.S., according to a statement published online Oct. 16 by the company's Chief Executive Officer Albert Bourla.
But even if vaccines are approved, it's not clear how long it will take to manufacture and distribute them to everyone in the U.S. As part of the government's Operation Warp Speed, many of the leading vaccine candidates are already being manufactured prior to trial results. These vaccines will be ready to be distributed before they are given approval, Azar said.
By the end of the year, officials expect that there will be enough FDA-authorized vaccine to be able to vaccinate the most vulnerable individuals, Azar said. "Then by the end of January, we expect we'll have enough to vaccinate all seniors as well as our health care workers and first responders. And by the end of March to early April, enough vaccine for all Americans who would want to take a vaccine." However, he did not mention children, an age group on which the leading vaccines have not yet been tested and who will thus likely receive a vaccine much later.
Trust roadblocks
"Having a vaccine ready is one thing, being able to deliver it is yet another," said Dr. William Schaffner, an infectious-diseases specialist at Vanderbilt University in Tennessee. "I think that process will take much longer than this timeline."
One of the reasons for that is public skepticism on the safety and efficacy of COVID-19 vaccines, which runs high especially in African American and ethnic communities that have been disproportionately affected by the virus, Schaffner told Live Science. Surveys have shown that as many as half of Americans do not trust these vaccines, he said. That's because "this whole process is so politicized, unfortunately."
When a vaccine is approved, assuming that it meets the standards of efficacy and safety and has been thoroughly vetted by the Food and Drug Administration's external advisory panel, "we're going to have to work...very very hard," to reassure people that the vaccines are safe, effective and worthwhile to get, Schaffner said. The first group of people that will need convincing are the medical professionals, because they are the ones that will be reaching out to their patients to provide knowledge and reassurance, Schaffner added.
In order for people, including the medical professions who are "standing back and watching this with great care and skepticism themselves," to be convinced, complete and transparent data from these clinical trials will need to be published from day 1, Schaffner said. How successful vaccination programs are is "likely to vary substantially across the country."
Related: Coronavirus live updates
To get into the hands of the public, the vaccines will first need to pass five independent checkpoints, and so people in the U.S. should "feel very reassured," by the process, Azar said.
First, an independent data safety and monitoring board will examine the data and determine if a vaccine clinical trial has achieved its pre-specified endpoints, or milestones that can clearly show whether or not a vaccine is successful. If it has, that data will be revealed to the company and the FDA, he said. Second, the company will have its own review process, and the results will have to meet their own ethical standards before the company submits an EUA. Third, the FDA will evaluate the vaccine according to two sets of guidance, a general vaccine guidance for COVID-19 and a second EUA guidance. Fourth, an external advisory committee will advise the FDA and this meeting will be webcast for the public. And fifth, the FDA's career scientists will decide whether to approve the vaccine, Azar said.
Physical roadblocks
But there will also be physical roadblocks to the distribution of the vaccines. "There are going to be packaging, shipping and handling issues as there are with all vaccines," Schaffner said. Pfizer's vaccine, for example, needs to be kept at extremely cold temperatures around minus 70 degrees Celsius (minus 94 degrees Fahrenheit). So the vaccine can't just be distributed to doctor's offices and pharmacies because they don't have the freezer capacities, Schaffner said. Instead, states will have to set up vaccination centers, which is currently being planned out.
"There are very restrictive constraints on how that vaccine is to be used, people need to be trained for that," Schaffner said. "The other vaccines likely could be distributed by the average clinic and physician's office and pharmacy but they may come online later."
Of course, this is all assuming that these vaccines will be sufficiently effective and safe, he added. Clinical trials aren't without their own hiccups.
For example, a phase 3 trial of one of the world's leading coronavirus vaccines, developed by AstraZeneca and the University of Oxford, is still on pause in the U.S. while the FDA reviews the case of a participant in the U.K. trial who developed spinal cord damage. While these pauses are normal in a clinical trial, it can cause delays. The 37 volunteers in the AstraZeneca trial in the U.S., should have already received a second dose of the vaccine, for example, but they didn't due to the pause, according to NBC News.
"I wish we had a crystal ball," Dr. Jay Butler, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) deputy director for infectious diseases, said in the briefing. "I wish I could say everything is going to go 100% according to plan, but we also know that we have to be ready for if it doesn't."
Looking at current trends, "it's reasonable to expect that we will have at least one, possibly two products available for the end of the calendar year," he added.
Even when the general public is vaccinated, the vaccines will likely not be 100% effective. The FDA requires that the vaccine be at least 50% effective, according to the latest guidance. "I think the public will be dismayed to know that even though they've received the vaccine, they'll have to keep wearing a mask and social distancing," for a while until the spread of the coronavirus is substantially diminished, Schaffner said.
"There's this illusion that once you get vaccinated it's like putting on a suit of armor, you don't have to worry about it anymore," he said. "That's incorrect."
Editor's Note: This article was updated on Oct. 23 to correct how effective a candidate vaccine needs to be in order to receive approval. FDA requires that the vaccine be at least 50% effective, not 60%.
Originally published on Live Science.


livescience--2020-10-22--Sacrificed llama mummies unearthed in Peru

Archaeologists in Peru have found the naturally mummified remains of five llamas that were sacrificed to the Incan gods about 500 years ago .
The mummified llamas are still adorned with the colorful strings , red paint and feathers that the Inca decorated them with before sending them to their deaths , likely by burying these animals alive .
The finding is so rare , that even though archaeologists have been excavating the remains of the ( also spelled Inka ) along the Pacific Coast of South America for more than a century , `` none of them have found @ @ @ @ @ @ @ researcher Lidio Valdez , an adjunct assistant professor in the Department of Anthropology and Archaeology at the University of Calgary in Canada , told Live Science .
Valdez and his colleagues found the mummified llamas ( Lama glama ) at Tambo Viejo , an archaeological site on the Pacific coast of Peru , in 2018 .
The archaeologists discovered the llama mummies buried beneath clay floors in two of the several buildings that surround the two plazas at the site .
Four llamas — one brown and three white — were buried together @ @ @ @ @ @ @ brown llama was found beneath the floor in the other building , Valdez said .
`` In the first case , it appears that there were more llamas , but looters have disturbed the original context , '' Valdez said .
`` The llamas had been buried facing east , '' likely because the sun , which rises in the east , was a major Inca deity , he noted .
These sacrifices not only honored the gods , which the Inca associated with successful harvests , healthy herds and war victories , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Empire popular among the local culture , because the sacrifices came along with a huge feast .
The young llamas were richly decorated ; long string tassels dyed red , yellow , green and purple were attached to the llamas ' ears .
These strings , made of camelid fiber , were `` attached to the ears just for the occasion , '' Valdez said .
The camels also wore necklaces of colored strings around their necks .
`` The adornments suggest that the offerings were very special , '' Valdez said .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ brown llamas were sacrificed to the creator Viracocha , while white llamas to the sun , the Inka main deity . ''
Some of the llamas had painted faces .
The three white llamas had a red dot on top of their heads and a red line descending from each eye toward the nose , the researchers wrote in the study .
Moreover , one of the white llamas was buried with a ( Cavia porcellus ) , and all three white llamas were buried with the feathers of a tropical bird attached @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
The three white llamas were also buried near pits filled with maize cobs , lima beans and guinea pigs , as well as a package of ash ( known as lime ) associated with the chewing of coca , a leaf considered sacred by the Inca ; it 's also the raw ingredient used to make cocaine .
After the llamas were decorated , their limbs were bent under their bodies and tied with long ropes , also made from camelid fibers .
The archaeologists could n't find any cut marks on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , so it 's possible they were buried alive .
`` If [ this idea is ] correct , this practice would parallel the evidence for the burial of living human sacrifices , '' the researchers wrote in the study .
Related : The 25 most mysterious archaeological finds on Earth Archaeologists have found other Inca sites containing animal and , but the newfound discovery is one of the best preserved , said Susan deFrance , a professor of anthropology at the University of Florida , who was n't involved in the new @ @ @ @ @ @ @ as `` complete , not as beautiful as this , where you can tell the coat color and all the material that 's with it , '' she told Live Science .
`` So , this is fairly rare . ''
The archaeologists found a large earthen oven in another building near the llama sacrifices .
`` Its presence suggests that ritual celebrations culminated in the sharing of food in the form of feasts , '' the researchers wrote in the study .
Perhaps , this animal sacrifice had a larger purpose ; @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 's power over their empire , Valdez said .
Nine separate radiocarbon dates indicate that these llamas were sacrificed in about 1500 , or near the end of the Inca occupation of the site at Tambo Viejo .
A few decades before , the empire had peacefully incorporated the southern Peruvian coast into its territory .
Then , the Inca built an administrative center at Tambo Viejo , according to Spanish documents from Columbian times .
`` The Inka did not just go to Tambo Viejo to make animal sacrifices ; instead , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ celebrations that included sharing food and drinks , all sponsored by the state , '' Valdez said .
Ultimately , food sharing was a good strategy that enabled the Inka to cement lasting political alliances and reciprocal relationships with the newly conquered peoples , '' Valdez said .
The llamas are n't the only major animal sacrifice at Tambo Viejo .
Earlier research there by Valdez revealed the discovery of several dozens of sacrificed guinea pigs that were also adorned with colorful string earrings and necklaces , according to a 2019 study in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ noted that the Inca sacrificed these animals by the hundreds , but this is some of the first direct evidence that that it really happened , Valdez said .
The study was published online Thursday ( Oct. 22 ) in the journal .

Archaeologists in Peru have found the naturally mummified remains of five llamas that were sacrificed to the Incan gods about 500 years ago.
The mummified llamas are still adorned with the colorful strings, red paint and feathers that the Inca decorated them with before sending them to their deaths, likely by burying these animals alive.
The finding is so rare, that even though archaeologists have been excavating the remains of the Inca Empire (also spelled Inka) along the Pacific Coast of South America for more than a century, "none of them have found anything like this," study lead researcher Lidio Valdez, an adjunct assistant professor in the Department of Anthropology and Archaeology at the University of Calgary in Canada, told Live Science.
Related: Image gallery: Inca child mummies
Valdez and his colleagues found the mummified llamas (Lama glama) at Tambo Viejo, an archaeological site on the Pacific coast of Peru, in 2018. The archaeologists discovered the llama mummies buried beneath clay floors in two of the several buildings that surround the two plazas at the site. Four llamas — one brown and three white — were buried together in one building, and a single brown llama was found beneath the floor in the other building, Valdez said.
"In the first case, it appears that there were more llamas, but looters have disturbed the original context," Valdez said. "The llamas had been buried facing east," likely because the sun, which rises in the east, was a major Inca deity, he noted.
These sacrifices not only honored the gods, which the Inca associated with successful harvests, healthy herds and war victories, but also may have made the Inca Empire popular among the local culture, because the sacrifices came along with a huge feast.
Image 1 of 5 Archaeologists found the naturally mummified llamas at the Inca site of Tambo Viejo. (Image credit: Photograph by L.M. Valdez; Copyright Antiquity Publications Ltd.) The Inca bound the llamas' limbs with rope before likely burying them alive. (Image credit: Photograph by L.M. Valdez; Copyright Antiquity Publications Ltd.) These colorful strings were attached to the ear of one of the white llamas. (Image credit: Photograph by L.M. Valdez; Copyright Antiquity Publications Ltd.) The Inca tied the feathers of tropical birds to sticks and buried them with the white llamas. (Image credit: Photograph by L.M. Valdez; Copyright Antiquity Publications Ltd.) The skull of the young, brown llama mummy. (Image credit: Photograph by L.M. Valdez; Copyright Antiquity Publications Ltd.)
Colorful decorations
The young llamas were richly decorated; long string tassels dyed red, yellow, green and purple were attached to the llamas' ears. These strings, made of camelid fiber, were "attached to the ears just for the occasion," Valdez said. The camels also wore necklaces of colored strings around their necks.
"The adornments suggest that the offerings were very special," Valdez said. "Indeed, historical records indicate that brown llamas were sacrificed to the creator Viracocha, while white llamas to the sun, the Inka main deity."
Some of the llamas had painted faces. The three white llamas had a red dot on top of their heads and a red line descending from each eye toward the nose, the researchers wrote in the study. Moreover, one of the white llamas was buried with a guinea pig (Cavia porcellus), and all three white llamas were buried with the feathers of a tropical bird attached to 4-inch-long (10 centimeters) sticks. The three white llamas were also buried near pits filled with maize cobs, lima beans and guinea pigs, as well as a package of ash (known as lime) associated with the chewing of coca, a leaf considered sacred by the Inca; it's also the raw ingredient used to make cocaine.
After the llamas were decorated, their limbs were bent under their bodies and tied with long ropes, also made from camelid fibers. The archaeologists couldn't find any cut marks on the throats or diaphragms of these llamas, so it's possible they were buried alive. "If [this idea is] correct, this practice would parallel the evidence for the burial of living human sacrifices," the researchers wrote in the study.
Related: The 25 most mysterious archaeological finds on Earth
Archaeologists have found other Inca sites containing animal and human sacrifices , but the newfound discovery is one of the best preserved, said Susan deFrance, a professor of anthropology at the University of Florida, who wasn't involved in the new study. Other sacrificial findings are not as "complete, not as beautiful as this, where you can tell the coat color and all the material that's with it," she told Live Science. "So, this is fairly rare."
Image 1 of 6 The green area highlights the Inca Empire. (Image credit: Copyright Antiquity Publications Ltd.) Tambo Viejo, where the llama mummies were found, is located near other Inca sites. (Image credit: Figure prepared by M.A. Liza; Copyright Antiquity Publications Ltd.) This map of Tambo Viejo shows the two plazas and the buildings that surrounded them. (Image credit: Figure prepared by Benjamin Guerrero; Copyright Antiquity Publications Ltd.) This map shows the building where the four llama mummies were unearthed. (Image credit: Figure prepared by M.A. Liza; Copyright Antiquity Publications Ltd.) The jaw from one of the brown llama mummies. (Image credit: Photograph by L.M. Valdez; Copyright Antiquity Publications Ltd.) The jaws of one of the young, white llama mummies. (Image credit: Photograph by L.M. Valdez; Copyright Antiquity Publications Ltd.)
Sacrifice and feast
The archaeologists found a large earthen oven in another building near the llama sacrifices. "Its presence suggests that ritual celebrations culminated in the sharing of food in the form of feasts," the researchers wrote in the study.
Perhaps, this animal sacrifice had a larger purpose; it may have helped maintain the Inca's power over their empire, Valdez said. Nine separate radiocarbon dates indicate that these llamas were sacrificed in about 1500, or near the end of the Inca occupation of the site at Tambo Viejo. A few decades before, the empire had peacefully incorporated the southern Peruvian coast into its territory. Then, the Inca built an administrative center at Tambo Viejo, according to Spanish documents from Columbian times.
"The Inka did not just go to Tambo Viejo to make animal sacrifices; instead, the sacrifices were part of much larger celebrations that included sharing food and drinks, all sponsored by the state," Valdez said. Ultimately, food sharing was a good strategy that enabled the Inka to cement lasting political alliances and reciprocal relationships with the newly conquered peoples," Valdez said.
The llamas aren't the only major animal sacrifice at Tambo Viejo. Earlier research there by Valdez revealed the discovery of several dozens of sacrificed guinea pigs that were also adorned with colorful string earrings and necklaces, according to a 2019 study in the International Journal of Osteoarchaeology . Early Spaniards in South America noted that the Inca sacrificed these animals by the hundreds, but this is some of the first direct evidence that that it really happened, Valdez said.
The study was published online Thursday (Oct. 22) in the journal Antiquity .
Originally published on Live Science.


livescience--2020-10-22--Aliens on 1,000 nearby stars could see us, new study suggests

There are about 1,000 star systems where aliens , if they existed , could be watching us from afar , new research suggests .
Those 1,004 star systems are in a direct line of sight to our planet , and close enough to us that they could not only detect planet Earth , but also chemical traces of Earthly life .
Over the course of the last decade , astronomers have found exoplanets orbiting distant stars using a simple formula : Keep an eye on a star and wait for it to suddenly dim .
That dimming is a sign @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and the telescope .
Analyzing how the light changes as the star dims can reveal the chemical contents of the planet 's atmosphere .
But this method works only for planets whose orbits happen to take them between their host stars and Earth .
In a new paper , researchers flipped that formula on its head , asking : Which nearby stars are lined up properly for their inhabitants to see transit in front of the sun ?
Would any life-forms in those star systems be able to detect signs of us , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ?
The answer is yes , it turns out , for a great number of nearby stars .
`` If observers were out there searching , they would be able to see signs of a biosphere in the atmosphere of our Pale Blue Dot , '' Lisa Kaltenegger , a Cornell University astronomer and lead author of the paper , said in a .
Planets , it turns out , are common in space .
Since researchers first confirmed finding one transiting in front of its star in 1992 , astronomers have found @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 3,185 stars , thanks largely to the planet hunting Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite ( TESS ) .
The James Webb Space Telescope ( JWST ) , slated to launch at some point this decade , should have the precision to study many of those planets in more detail — possibly detecting gases like methane or in their atmospheres , which would be likely signs of life .
What if aliens had their own JWST ?
Within 326 light-years , the researchers found , there are 1,004 with vantage points to spot Earth .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ that would give them at least 10 hours of observational data every time Earth passed between that location and the sun — ideal conditions for spotting this little rocky planet and the signs of life in its atmosphere .
`` Only a very small fraction of exoplanets will just happen to be randomly aligned with our line of sight so we can see them transit . ''
said Lehigh University astrophysicist Joshua Pepper , co-author of the paper , in the statement .
`` But all of the thousand stars we identified in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ see our Earth transit the sun , calling their attention . ''
About 5 % of the 1,004 stars are likely too young for intelligent life to have evolved , the researchers surmise , even if a planet with habitable conditions orbited them .
But the remaining 95 % belong to star categories that can sustain life for billions of years , which Earth 's experience suggests is long enough for intelligent life to evolve , assuming conditions are right .
Most of the stars on the list are toward the farther end @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the zone where Earth 's transit is visible gets smaller as you get closer to our solar system .
But the closest star on the list is only 28 light-years away .
And there are several more nearby stars that are on track to enter the zone where they might spot Earth within centuries .
Some are bright enough in the sky to see from Earth .
Two stars on the list have known exoplanets .
And a red dwarf just 12 light-years from Earth with known exoplanets — known as Teegarden 's @ @ @ @ @ @ @ right viewing angle to spot Earth but at its current rate of movement will enter the Earth-spotting zone as soon as 2044 .
The next step , the researchers wrote , is to focus intelligent life-hunting operations on the 1,004 stars identified in their paper .
They specifically mentioned SETI 's Breakthrough Listen program , designed to detect communications from advanced alien civilizations .
This research was published Oct. 20 in the journal .

There are about 1,000 star systems where aliens, if they existed, could be watching us from afar, new research suggests.
Those 1,004 star systems are in a direct line of sight to our planet, and close enough to us that they could not only detect planet Earth, but also chemical traces of Earthly life.
Over the course of the last decade, astronomers have found exoplanets orbiting distant stars using a simple formula: Keep an eye on a star and wait for it to suddenly dim. That dimming is a sign of a planet passing between the star and the telescope. Analyzing how the light changes as the star dims can reveal the chemical contents of the planet's atmosphere.
But this method works only for planets whose orbits happen to take them between their host stars and Earth. In a new paper, researchers flipped that formula on its head, asking: Which nearby stars are lined up properly for their inhabitants to see Earth transit in front of the sun? Would any life-forms in those star systems be able to detect signs of us, the living things on Earth's surface? The answer is yes, it turns out, for a great number of nearby stars.
"If observers were out there searching, they would be able to see signs of a biosphere in the atmosphere of our Pale Blue Dot," Lisa Kaltenegger, a Cornell University astronomer and lead author of the paper, said in a statement .
Related: The true stories of 5 mystery planets
Planets, it turns out, are common in space. Since researchers first confirmed finding one transiting in front of its star in 1992, astronomers have found 4,292 confirmed planets beyond our solar system , orbiting 3,185 stars, thanks largely to the planet hunting Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS). The James Webb Space Telescope (JWST), slated to launch at some point this decade, should have the precision to study many of those planets in more detail — possibly detecting gases like methane or oxygen in their atmospheres, which would be likely signs of life.
What if aliens had their own JWST? Within 326 light-years, the researchers found, there are 1,004 with vantage points to spot Earth. Of those, 508 have viewing angles that would give them at least 10 hours of observational data every time Earth passed between that location and the sun — ideal conditions for spotting this little rocky planet and the signs of life in its atmosphere.
"Only a very small fraction of exoplanets will just happen to be randomly aligned with our line of sight so we can see them transit." said Lehigh University astrophysicist Joshua Pepper, co-author of the paper, in the statement. "But all of the thousand stars we identified in our paper in the solar neighborhood could see our Earth transit the sun, calling their attention."
About 5% of the 1,004 stars are likely too young for intelligent life to have evolved, the researchers surmise, even if a planet with habitable conditions orbited them. But the remaining 95% belong to star categories that can sustain life for billions of years, which Earth's experience suggests is long enough for intelligent life to evolve, assuming conditions are right.
Most of the stars on the list are toward the farther end of the 326 light-year range, because the zone where Earth's transit is visible gets smaller as you get closer to our solar system. But the closest star on the list is only 28 light-years away. And there are several more nearby stars that are on track to enter the zone where they might spot Earth within centuries. Some are bright enough in the sky to see from Earth.
Two stars on the list have known exoplanets. And a red dwarf just 12 light-years from Earth with known exoplanets — known as Teegarden's star — does not currently have the right viewing angle to spot Earth but at its current rate of movement will enter the Earth-spotting zone as soon as 2044.
The next step, the researchers wrote, is to focus intelligent life-hunting operations on the 1,004 stars identified in their paper. They specifically mentioned SETI's Breakthrough Listen program, designed to detect communications from advanced alien civilizations.
This research was published Oct. 20 in the journal Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society .
Originally published on Live Science.


livescience--2020-10-22--Witch-repellent graffiti discovered in ruins of medieval UK church

Learning no lessons from horror films of yore , Britain has plans for a high-speed rail project that will lay tracks over the ruins of a medieval church .
And , apparently , the project has run into some trouble with witches and dark spirits .
According to archaeologists working at Stoke Mandeville , a village that lies in the path of the proposed railway , an early excavation of the site 's 700-year-old church revealed stone beams etched with strange circular patterns known as `` witch marks . ''
These markings , which look like the spokes of a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ center , were created to `` ward off evil spirits by entrapping them in an endless line or maze , '' project officials .
Michael Court , lead archaeologist at HS2 Ltd ( the company behind the rail project ) said the unusual markings offer a `` fascinating insight into the past '' at a site that has long been lost to history .
The church in question , named St. Mary 's , was erected around 1070 as a private chapel for the lord of Stoke Mandeville in what is now Buckinghamshire @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
The church building was expanded in the 1340s to accommodate local villagers , then ultimately demolished in the 1860s when a new church popped up closer to town .
Yet during the first excavation of the site , the HS2 team found many sections of the medieval building to be in surprisingly good condition , with walls surviving to a height of almost 5 feet ( 1.5 meters ) and floors intact .
The witch marks were carved into two different stones , one sitting at ground level and the other higher @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ground-level stone , the radial pattern was n't likely used as a sundial , something that is typically found near the southern doors of medieval churches , the archaeologists said .
Similar witch markings have turned up at medieval sites across the U.K. , including a set at Creswell Crags , a limestone gorge and cave complex that has been inhabited on and off since the last ice age .
The markings are typically etched into stones near doorways , windows and fireplaces , to keep spirits away .
The markings did not @ @ @ @ @ @ @ destruction .
But with the scrawled stones still intact , modern witches keen on trying the new high-speed train may need to reroute their travels away from Stoke Mandeville .

Learning no lessons from horror films of yore, Britain has plans for a high-speed rail project that will lay tracks over the ruins of a medieval church. And, apparently, the project has run into some trouble with witches and dark spirits.
According to archaeologists working at Stoke Mandeville, a village that lies in the path of the proposed railway, an early excavation of the site's 700-year-old church revealed stone beams etched with strange circular patterns known as "witch marks."
These markings, which look like the spokes of a wheel with a hole drilled into the center, were created to "ward off evil spirits by entrapping them in an endless line or maze," project officials wrote in a statement .
Michael Court, lead archaeologist at HS2 Ltd (the company behind the rail project) said the unusual markings offer a "fascinating insight into the past" at a site that has long been lost to history.
Related: Black magic: History's 6 most infamous witch trials
The church in question, named St. Mary's, was erected around 1070 as a private chapel for the lord of Stoke Mandeville in what is now Buckinghamshire, England, according to the statement. The church building was expanded in the 1340s to accommodate local villagers, then ultimately demolished in the 1860s when a new church popped up closer to town.
More "witch marks" carved into the stones of St. Mary's church. (Image credit: HS2 Ltd)
Yet during the first excavation of the site, the HS2 team found many sections of the medieval building to be in surprisingly good condition, with walls surviving to a height of almost 5 feet (1.5 meters) and floors intact. The witch marks were carved into two different stones, one sitting at ground level and the other higher up. Given the location of the ground-level stone, the radial pattern wasn't likely used as a sundial, something that is typically found near the southern doors of medieval churches, the archaeologists said.
Similar witch markings have turned up at medieval sites across the U.K., including a set discovered last year at Creswell Crags, a limestone gorge and cave complex that has been inhabited on and off since the last ice age. The markings are typically etched into stones near doorways, windows and fireplaces, to keep spirits away.
The markings did not save St. Mary's from its ultimate destruction. But with the scrawled stones still intact, modern witches keen on trying the new high-speed train may need to reroute their travels away from Stoke Mandeville.
A CG rendering of what St. Mary's looked like in its prime, 700 years ago. (Image credit: HS2 Ltd)
Originally published on Live Science.


livescience--2020-10-22--Famous fish that ate all his friends gets cheered up by 16th birthday party

A grumpy-faced grouper named Mikko in a Finland aquarium was more down-in-the-mouth than usual , after the facility temporarily closed to the public due to the pandemic .
So the aquarium 's staff threw him a birthday party .
Mikko missed seeing human visitors at the Sea Life Helsinki 's Sea Lab ocean laboratory , because he had no fish companions in his tank ... due to the fact that he would n't stop eating them , an aquarium representative told Live Science in an email .
Since the shutdown in the spring , Mikko 's caretakers noted that the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ though he was still physically healthy .
To cheer him up , they recently brought him a special treat to celebrate his 16th birthday : a salmon `` cake . ''
In a video on Oct. 12 , the birthday fish enthusiastically devoured the delicacy — and he did n't have to share it with anyone .
Mikko , who arrived at the aquarium in 2007 , is a hefty fish , measuring about 3 feet ( 1 meter ) long and weighing about 35 lbs .
( 16 kilograms ) .
The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ home gave him up because he outgrew all their tanks ( and because he kept eating his tank-mates ) , the Sea Life representative said .
At the aquarium , Mikko is fed three to four times a week on a diet of squid and small fish such as herring , mackerel or whiting .
Unfortunately for Mikko 's neighbors at Sea Life , he also demonstrated a hearty appetite for whatever happened to be sharing his tank — he even scarfed down a venomous .
And Mikko is n't the only grouper @ @ @ @ @ @ @ prey — scientists have previously documented in a single gulp .
After the so-called `` lionfish incident , '' caretakers moved Mikko into a tank by himself .
Deprived of the company of his fellow fish , he appeared `` depressed '' when people stopped coming to visit him at the aquarium during the spring shutdown , and was `` more still and distant than usual , '' the representative said .
`` To cheer him up during the time that we were closed , the caretakers and other staff had lunch and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the representative said in the email .
`` They brushed him with a soft brush to activate him a bit , and he also had a TV to keep him company . ''
However , they had to be very careful when using the brush .
In December 2019 , Mikko snatched a brush from a keeper 's hand and swallowed it .
The brush lodged in his throat , and aquarium staff had to anesthetize Mikko so the brush could be safely removed , Finnish news site Ilta-Sanomat .
Though Mikko 's @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , was he truly depressed ?
His story might sound fishy — an example of people interpreting animal behavior through a human lens .
However , biologists have found that fish do exhibit .
Depressed zebrafish are withdrawn and lose interest in stimuli , much as people do when they are clinically depressed ; in experiments , zebrafish with those `` symptoms '' also usually floated near the bottom of their tanks , biologists at Troy University in Alabama in 2017 .
By comparison , `` happy '' fish in those experiments were @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the surface , the researchers said .
While Mikko 's many fans may not have visited him in person during the shutdown , they did n't forget him .
On Oct. 5 , Sea Life Helsinki posted a photo on Facebook of Mikko 's `` `` — a display next to the tank showing notes and drawings sent by admirers of the dour grouper .
Mikko seemed to enjoy his birthday `` cake , '' and the festivities continued throughout the week , Sea Life representatives wrote on Facebook .
With visitors now @ @ @ @ @ @ @ may look a little brighter to the famous grouper .
In fact , his caretakers are already making plans for his 17th birthday party , according to the post .
`` Next year , you will be celebrated again , Mikko , '' aquarium representatives wrote .

A grumpy-faced grouper named Mikko in a Finland aquarium was more down-in-the-mouth than usual, after the facility temporarily closed to the public due to the coronavirus pandemic. So the aquarium's staff threw him a birthday party.
Mikko missed seeing human visitors at the Sea Life Helsinki's Sea Lab ocean laboratory, because he had no fish companions in his tank ... due to the fact that he wouldn't stop eating them, an aquarium representative told Live Science in an email.
Since the COVID-19 shutdown in the spring, Mikko's caretakers noted that the already-solitary fish seemed listless and apathetic, though he was still physically healthy. To cheer him up, they recently brought him a special treat to celebrate his 16th birthday: a salmon "cake." In a video shared on Facebook on Oct. 12, the birthday fish enthusiastically devoured the delicacy — and he didn't have to share it with anyone.
Related: Photos: The world's freakiest-looking fish
Mikko, who arrived at the aquarium in 2007, is a hefty fish, measuring about 3 feet (1 meter) long and weighing about 35 lbs. (16 kilograms). The pet store that was Mikko's former home gave him up because he outgrew all their tanks (and because he kept eating his tank-mates), the Sea Life representative said.
At the aquarium, Mikko is fed three to four times a week on a diet of squid and small fish such as herring, mackerel or whiting. Unfortunately for Mikko's neighbors at Sea Life, he also demonstrated a hearty appetite for whatever happened to be sharing his tank — he even scarfed down a venomous lionfish .
And Mikko isn't the only grouper with a taste for large, dangerous prey — scientists have previously documented groupers swallowing sharks in a single gulp.
Now 16 years old, Mikko has been at Sea Life Helsinki since 2007. (Image credit: Sea Life Helsinki)
After the so-called "lionfish incident," caretakers moved Mikko into a tank by himself. Deprived of the company of his fellow fish, he appeared "depressed" when people stopped coming to visit him at the aquarium during the spring shutdown, and was "more still and distant than usual," the representative said.
"To cheer him up during the time that we were closed, the caretakers and other staff had lunch and coffee breaks by his tank," the representative said in the email. "They brushed him with a soft brush to activate him a bit, and he also had a TV to keep him company."
However, they had to be very careful when using the brush. In December 2019, Mikko snatched a brush from a keeper's hand and swallowed it. The brush lodged in his throat, and aquarium staff had to anesthetize Mikko so the brush could be safely removed, Finnish news site Ilta-Sanomat reported .
Mikko will sometimes change color in response to a gentle brushing, shifting from dark blue to a lighter blue. (Image credit: Sea Life Helsinki)
Fish depression
Though Mikko's behavior has changed since the COVID-19 lockdown, was he truly depressed? His story might sound fishy — an example of people interpreting animal behavior through a human lens. However, biologists have found that fish do exhibit signs of depression . Depressed zebrafish are withdrawn and lose interest in stimuli, much as people do when they are clinically depressed; in experiments, zebrafish with those "symptoms" also usually floated near the bottom of their tanks, biologists at Troy University in Alabama said in a statement in 2017. By comparison, "happy" fish in those experiments were more active and spent time close to the surface, the researchers said.
While Mikko's many fans may not have visited him in person during the shutdown, they didn't forget him. On Oct. 5, Sea Life Helsinki posted a photo on Facebook of Mikko's " fan wall " — a display next to the tank showing notes and drawings sent by admirers of the dour grouper.
Mikko seemed to enjoy his birthday "cake," and the festivities continued throughout the week, Sea Life representatives wrote on Facebook. With visitors now returning to the aquarium, the future may look a little brighter to the famous grouper. In fact, his caretakers are already making plans for his 17th birthday party, according to the post.
"Next year, you will be celebrated again, Mikko," aquarium representatives wrote.
Originally published on Live Science.


livescience--2020-10-22--CDC changes definition of 'close contact' for COVID-19

Having `` `` with COVID-19 is usually defined as being near an infected person for at least 15 consecutive minutes .
But a new report suggests that even very brief exposures — a minute or less — could spread the disease , if those exposures happen frequently .
The report , from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention ( CDC ) , describes a correctional officer in Vermont who caught COVID-19 after exposure to infected prisoners , even though he was never around the infected people for more than a minute at a time .
The exposure likely happened @ @ @ @ @ @ @ were transferred to the Vermont prison from an out-of-state facility , according to the report , published today in the CDC journal .
None of the inmates showed , but all of them underwent routine upon arrival ; and all six inmates received positive results the next day .
After learning of the positive results , officials went back to see who had close contact with the inmates the day before .
The team reviewed video footage and found one correctional officer who did come within 6 feet ( 1.8 meters ) of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a close contact because he was not around the infected people for 15 consecutive minutes .
Related : 20 of the worst epidemics and pandemics in history The officer continued to work as usual , but on Aug. 4 ( one week after the infected inmates arrived ) , he developed loss of smell and taste , runny nose , cough , shortness of breath , headache and other symptoms of COVID-19 , the report said .
The next day , the officer tested positive for the disease .
As a result of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ reviewed the video surveillance footage from July 28 .
Though the correctional officer never spent 15 minutes straight close to the infected inmates , he had multiple brief encounters with them .
Specifically , during his 8-hour shift , the officer had 22 brief encounters ( between 10 and 60 seconds each ) with the inmates , totaling 17 minutes of cumulative exposure .
The correctional officer wore a and goggles during his encounters , but the inmates were not always masked .
The officer had no other known contacts with COVID-19 and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the 2 weeks before his illness .
In addition , the rate of new COVID-19 infections in Vermont was low at the time , meaning the officer was unlikely to catch the disease through community spread .
The findings suggest that `` at least one of the asymptomatic [ inmates ] transmitted SARS-CoV-2 [ the virus that causes COVID-19 ] during these brief encounters , '' the report authors said .
The findings have implications for , which usually defines `` close contact '' with a person infected with the novel coronavirus as @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 15 minutes .
Indeed , following publication of the report on Wednesday , the CDC updated its definition of a close contact , according to .
The agency now defines close contact as `` someone who was within 6 feet of an infected person for a cumulative total of 15 minutes or more over a 24-hour period , '' the says .
Additional factors may also be considered , such as how close the individuals came to each other , whether the infected person was doing something like singing or exercising , which @ @ @ @ @ @ @ environment was crowded or adequately ventilated , the report said .
In the current case , `` although the initial assessment did not suggest that the officer had close contact exposures , detailed review of video footage identified that the cumulative duration of exposures exceeded 15 minutes , '' the authors wrote .
In correctional settings , frequent close encounters between inmates and facility staff members are necessary , the authors said , and `` public health officials should consider transmission-risk implications of cumulative exposure time within such settings , '' they concluded @ @ @ @ @ @ @ was updated on Thursday ( Oct. 22 ) to include information on the CDC 's expanded definition of a close contact .

Having " close contact " with COVID-19 is usually defined as being near an infected person for at least 15 consecutive minutes. But a new report suggests that even very brief exposures — a minute or less — could spread the disease, if those exposures happen frequently.
The report, from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), describes a correctional officer in Vermont who caught COVID-19 after exposure to infected prisoners, even though he was never around the infected people for more than a minute at a time.
The exposure likely happened on July 28, when six inmates were transferred to the Vermont prison from an out-of-state facility, according to the report, published today in the CDC journal Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report . None of the inmates showed symptoms of COVID-19 , but all of them underwent routine testing for COVID-19 upon arrival; and all six inmates received positive results the next day.
After learning of the positive results, officials went back to see who had close contact with the inmates the day before. The team reviewed video footage and found one correctional officer who did come within 6 feet (1.8 meters) of the inmates, but was not considered a close contact because he was not around the infected people for 15 consecutive minutes.
Related: 20 of the worst epidemics and pandemics in history
The officer continued to work as usual, but on Aug. 4 (one week after the infected inmates arrived), he developed loss of smell and taste, runny nose, cough, shortness of breath, headache and other symptoms of COVID-19, the report said. The next day, the officer tested positive for the disease.
As a result of this positive test, officials once again reviewed the video surveillance footage from July 28. Though the correctional officer never spent 15 minutes straight close to the infected inmates, he had multiple brief encounters with them. Specifically, during his 8-hour shift, the officer had 22 brief encounters (between 10 and 60 seconds each) with the inmates, totaling 17 minutes of cumulative exposure.
The correctional officer wore a cloth mask and goggles during his encounters, but the inmates were not always masked. The officer had no other known contacts with COVID-19 and hadn't traveled outside of Vermont in the 2 weeks before his illness. In addition, the rate of new COVID-19 infections in Vermont was low at the time, meaning the officer was unlikely to catch the disease through community spread.
The findings suggest that "at least one of the asymptomatic [inmates] transmitted SARS-CoV-2 [the virus that causes COVID-19] during these brief encounters," the report authors said.
The findings have implications for contact tracing , which usually defines "close contact" with a person infected with the novel coronavirus as being within 6 feet for at least 15 minutes.
Indeed, following publication of the report on Wednesday, the CDC updated its definition of a close contact, according to The Washington Post . The agency now defines close contact as "someone who was within 6 feet of an infected person for a cumulative total of 15 minutes or more over a 24-hour period," the CDC's website says.
Additional factors may also be considered, such as how close the individuals came to each other, whether the infected person was doing something like singing or exercising, which generates a lot of respiratory aerosols and whether the environment was crowded or adequately ventilated, the report said.
In the current case, "although the initial assessment did not suggest that the officer had close contact exposures, detailed review of video footage identified that the cumulative duration of exposures exceeded 15 minutes," the authors wrote. In correctional settings, frequent close encounters between inmates and facility staff members are necessary, the authors said, and "public health officials should consider transmission-risk implications of cumulative exposure time within such settings," they concluded.
Editor's note: This article was updated on Thursday (Oct. 22) to include information on the CDC's expanded definition of a close contact.
Originally published on Live Science.


livescience--2020-10-23--Explosive growth of Colorado wildfire seen from space

A massive wildfire in Colorado is threatening homes and has closed a National Park the day after it ballooned in size , growing by 6,000 acres ( 2,428 hectares ) in an hour .
The East Troublesome Fire has burned more than 125,000 acres ( 51,00 hectares ) and triggered evacuations stretching from the town of Grand Lake to the town of Estes Park , the gateway to Rocky Mountain National Park .
The fire 's boundary is only 11 miles ( 17 kilometers ) from the largest wildfire in Colorado history , the Cameron Peak Wildfire , which has @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are fears that the two fires could merge , .
The East Troublesome Fire began Oct. 14 .
Between Wednesday night ( Oct. 20 ) and Thursday morning ( Oct. 21 ) , it exploded in size , from 24,000 acres ( 9,700 hectares ) to more than 125,000 acres , according to 9News .
On Wednesday night , the Grand County sheriff reported that in a single hour , the fire devoured 6,000 new acres .
The origin of the fire is not known , but it is believed to be human-caused @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in recorded Colorado history .
Three out of the top four fires by size in Colorado have happened in 2020 : The Cameron Peak Fire , which has burned nearly 207,000 acres ( 83,800 hectares ) , is the largest ever .
The second-largest is the Pine Gulch Fire , which burned 139,007 acres ( 56,254 hectares ) near Grand Junction in July .
The only fire in the top four not from 2020 was the Hayman Fire , which burned 137,760 acres ( 55,750 hectares ) in 2002 .
Infrared imagery from @ @ @ @ @ @ @ NOAA ) GOES-East satellite shows the intense heat from the East Troublesome Fire spreading Wednesday and expanding rapidly as night fell on Wednesday night .
Smoke from the fire was visible from Denver as the plume rose 40,000 feet ( 12,200 meters ) , according to the Washington Post .
Rocky Mountain National Park is closed due to fire activity , and parts of the fire have burned across Trail Ridge Road , the main vehicle route through the park , according to .
Grand County officials reported that there had not been @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of Thursday afternoon , but that many structures had been damaged .
According to 9News , high winds and dangerous weather conditions were expected on Thursday , which could make containment of both the Cameron Peak Fire and the East Troublesome Fire difficult .
There are also four other largely uncontained wildfires burning in the state : The Calwood and Lefthand Canyon fires , both near Boulder , the Williams Fork fire in Grand County , and the Middle Forks fire in Routt County .
These unusually late fires have been stoked by @ @ @ @ @ @ @ drought , according to the , with almost 22 % of the state in the most extreme drought conditions .
Much of Grand County , where the East Troublesome Fire is burning , is in extreme drought .
`` Typically this time of year we 're cooling off and starting to get wetter , '' Brian Fuchs , a climatologist with Drought Monitor , told .
`` And that just has n't happened yet . ''
According to the , is warming and drying Colorado , leading to shorter snow seasons and shrinking @ @ @ @ @ @ @ pine beetle ( Dendroctonus ponderosae ) to thrive at higher elevations .
These beetles lay their eggs in pine trees , introducing a fungus that ultimately kills the trees .
The dead trees left behind provide ready fuel for wildfires .

The growth of the Colorado wildfire can be seen from the GOES-East satellite between Oct. 21 and Oct. 22, 2020.
A massive wildfire in Colorado is threatening homes and has closed a National Park after it ballooned in size, growing by 6,000 acres (2,428 hectares) in an hour on Wednesday (Oct. 21).
The East Troublesome Fire has burned 170,163 acres (68,862.5 hectares) as of Friday morning and triggered evacuations stretching from the town of Grand Lake to the town of Estes Park, the gateway to Rocky Mountain National Park. The fire's boundary is only 11 miles (17 kilometers) from the largest wildfire in Colorado history, the Cameron Peak Wildfire, which has been burning since Aug. 13. There are fears that the two fires could merge, according to 9News .
The East Troublesome Fire began Oct. 14. Between Wednesday night (Oct. 20) and Thursday morning (Oct. 21), it exploded in size, from 24,000 acres (9,700 hectares) to more than 125,000 acres, according to 9News. On Wednesday night, the Grand County sheriff reported that in a single hour, the fire devoured 6,000 new acres. The origin of the fire is not known, but it is believed to be human-caused.
Related: Raging western wildfires in photos
Smoke from the East Troublesome Fire in Grand County, Colorado, is visible at sunset on Wednesday (Oct. 21) in northeast Denver, more than 60 miles (101 kilometers) from where the fire was burning. (Image credit: Stephanie Pappas)
The fire is now the second-largest in recorded Colorado history. All of the top fires by size in Colorado have happened in 2020: The Cameron Peak Fire, which has burned nearly 207,000 acres (83,800 hectares), is the largest ever. The third-largest is the Pine Gulch Fire, which burned 139,007 acres (56,254 hectares) near Grand Junction in July.
Infrared imagery from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) GOES-East satellite shows the intense heat from the East Troublesome Fire spreading Wednesday and expanding rapidly as night fell on Wednesday night. Smoke from the fire was visible from Denver as the plume rose 40,000 feet (12,200 meters), according to the Washington Post .
Rocky Mountain National Park is closed due to fire activity, and parts of the fire have burned across Trail Ridge Road, the main vehicle route through the park, according to OutThereColorado . Grand County officials reported that there had not been any reported deaths from the fire as of Thursday afternoon, but that many structures had been damaged.
According to 9News, high winds and dangerous weather conditions were expected on Thursday, which could make containment of both the Cameron Peak Fire and the East Troublesome Fire difficult. There are also three other largely uncontained wildfires burning in the state: The Calwood fire near Boulder, the Williams Fork fire in Grand County, and the Middle Forks fire in Routt County.
These unusually late fires have been stoked by drought conditions. All of Colorado is in drought, according to the Drought Monitor , with almost 22% of the state in the most extreme drought conditions. Much of Grand County, where the East Troublesome Fire is burning, is in extreme drought.
"Typically this time of year we're cooling off and starting to get wetter," Brian Fuchs, a climatologist with Drought Monitor, told Colorado Public Radio . "And that just hasn't happened yet."
According to the University of Colorado, Boulder Environmental Center , climate change is warming and drying Colorado, leading to shorter snow seasons and shrinking snowpack. Warmer temperatures also allow the mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae) to thrive at higher elevations. These beetles lay their eggs in pine trees, introducing a fungus that ultimately kills the trees. The dead trees left behind provide ready fuel for wildfires.
Editor's Note: This article was updated at 10:10 a.m. EDT on Friday (Oct. 23) to reflect changes in the fire's size and ranking in the state historical record.
Originally published on Live Science.


livescience--2020-10-23--Fault near Portland could unleash a major earthquake

A fault near Portland , Oregon , has the capacity to cause strong shaking in the region — and has done so as recently as 1,000 years ago .
New research into the Gales Creek fault , which lies 22 miles ( 35 kilometers ) west of Portland , reveals that on the fault have ruptured the surface three times in the last 9,000 years .
Today , the fault is capable of producing an earthquake of up to magnitude 7.1 to 7.4 , which would create very strong shaking and damage property and potentially threaten lives in the Portland @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on the fault are rare , researchers reported Oct. 20 in the Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America .
They recur every 4,000 years or so , as a rough average , and there is no evidence that the fault is currently at high risk of rupture .
However , the new findings suggest the need to study other nearby faults for signs of relatively recent earthquakes .
These investigations could reveal more about the dangers these faults pose to Portland and other populated areas in Oregon .
`` Many faults in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ their proximity to population centers , '' Alison Horst , a paleoseismologist formerly at Portland State University and now at the Washington State Department of Resources , .
Portland is in the Cascadia , the region of the Pacific Northwest where the Juan de Fuca is diving beneath the North American plate .
This subduction of the plates gives rise to earthquakes and volcanic activity .
Gales Creek is considered a forearc fault , which means it is located in the region between the spot where the plates meet and the volcanic chain @ @ @ @ @ @ @ runs 45 miles ( 73 km ) in a northwesterly direction in a lush , forested area of the Coast Range mountains north of the Willamette River .
The vegetation makes it difficult to see evidence of past earthquakes on the fault , such as the cliff-like scarps that form when Earth 's crust breaks .
However , mapping efforts using a technology called lidar ( light detection and ranging ) suggested that the fault showed the fingerprints of past quakes .
Lidar uses laser pulses sent from a drone or airplane to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ obstructions like vegetation .
For example , the paths of some streams along the fault were offset , as if they 'd been suddenly shifted to one side .
To trace the history of the Gales Creek fault , Horst and her colleagues dug a set of trenches up to 4.9 feet ( 1.5 meters ) deep , using shovels and a backhoe .
Within these trenches , they could see layers of sediment deposited over many thousands of years , including streaks of dark , charcoal-rich soil left behind by long-ago floods @ @ @ @ @ @ @ evidence of past earthquakes .
Because the charcoal is organic material , the researchers could use radiocarbon dating , which relies on the decay rate of radioactive forms of , to pinpoint when the layers had been put down .
This geological history showed three earthquakes large enough to disturb the Earth 's surface on the fault .
The oldest dated back about 8,800 years ago , the next 4,200 years ago , and the most recent approximately 1,000 years ago .
This averaged out to a significant earthquake approximately every 4,000 years @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the length of the fault , the researchers calculated that if the entire Gales Creek fault were to slip today , it could create an earthquake of between magnitude 7.1 and magnitude 7.4 , depending on the depth of the earthquake 's origin .
The actual risk of the entire fault rupturing in the near future is unknown , though .
The most recent earthquake along a similar fault in the region was a magnitude-5.7 quake in March 1993 just south of Portland , which caused $ 30 million in damage , the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Horst said in the statement , is to study other faults in the regions for signs of ancient earthquakes .
Learning when other faults cracked could reveal connections between faults , which would further clarify the earthquake hazards around Portland .

Portland lies near the Cascadia Subduction zone, where the Juan de Fuca plate is diving beneath the North American plate. The Gales Creek fault, which is a forearc fault between the spot where the plates meet and a chain of volcanoes that links it to the subduction zone, could rupture with a major earthquake, the new study finds.
A fault near Portland, Oregon, has the capacity to cause strong shaking in the region — and has done so as recently as 1,000 years ago.
New research into the Gales Creek fault, which lies 22 miles (35 kilometers) west of Portland, reveals that earthquakes on the fault have ruptured the surface three times in the last 9,000 years. Today, the fault is capable of producing an earthquake of up to magnitude 7.1 to 7.4, which would create very strong shaking and damage property and potentially threaten lives in the Portland metro region.
Fortunately, big quakes on the fault are rare, researchers reported Oct. 20 in the Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America . They recur every 4,000 years or so, as a rough average, and there is no evidence that the fault is currently at high risk of rupture. However, the new findings suggest the need to study other nearby faults for signs of relatively recent earthquakes. These investigations could reveal more about the dangers these faults pose to Portland and other populated areas in Oregon.
Related: The 10 biggest earthquakes in history
"Many faults in the region are of interest based on their proximity to population centers," Alison Horst, a paleoseismologist formerly at Portland State University and now at the Washington State Department of Resources, said in a statement .
Signs of seismicity
Portland is in the Cascadia subduction zone , the region of the Pacific Northwest where the Juan de Fuca tectonic plate is diving beneath the North American plate. This subduction of the plates gives rise to earthquakes and volcanic activity.
Gales Creek is considered a forearc fault, which means it is located in the region between the spot where the plates meet and the volcanic chain link to the subduction zone. It runs 45 miles (73 km) in a northwesterly direction in a lush, forested area of the Coast Range mountains north of the Willamette River. The vegetation makes it difficult to see evidence of past earthquakes on the fault, such as the cliff-like scarps that form when Earth's crust breaks.
However, mapping efforts using a technology called lidar (light detection and ranging) suggested that the fault showed the fingerprints of past quakes. Lidar uses laser pulses sent from a drone or airplane to detect changes in topography, virtually erasing obstructions like vegetation. For example, the paths of some streams along the fault were offset, as if they'd been suddenly shifted to one side.
Ancient earthquakes
To trace the history of the Gales Creek fault, Horst and her colleagues dug a set of trenches up to 4.9 feet (1.5 meters) deep, using shovels and a backhoe. Within these trenches, they could see layers of sediment deposited over many thousands of years, including streaks of dark, charcoal-rich soil left behind by long-ago floods. Broken parts of these layers showed evidence of past earthquakes. Because the charcoal is organic material, the researchers could use radiocarbon dating, which relies on the decay rate of radioactive forms of carbon , to pinpoint when the layers had been put down.
This geological history showed three earthquakes large enough to disturb the Earth's surface on the fault. The oldest dated back about 8,800 years ago, the next 4,200 years ago, and the most recent approximately 1,000 years ago. This averaged out to a significant earthquake approximately every 4,000 years on the Gales Creek fault.
Given the length of the fault, the researchers calculated that if the entire Gales Creek fault were to slip today, it could create an earthquake of between magnitude 7.1 and magnitude 7.4, depending on the depth of the earthquake's origin. The actual risk of the entire fault rupturing in the near future is unknown, though. The most recent earthquake along a similar fault in the region was a magnitude-5.7 quake in March 1993 just south of Portland, which caused $30 million in damage, the authors wrote.
The next step, Horst said in the statement, is to study other faults in the regions for signs of ancient earthquakes. Learning when other faults cracked could reveal connections between faults, which would further clarify the earthquake hazards around Portland.
Originally published on Live Science.