livescience--2020-10-29--Coronavirus outbreak: Live updates

Coronavirus outbreak: Live updates

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90-year-old woman in the UK receives first dose of Pfizer vaccine, FDA review confirms vaccine is safe and effective A 90-year-old woman (who will turn 91 next week) became the first in the world to be given Pfizer's coronavirus vaccine outside of clinical trials, according to the BBC. Margaret Keenan, who is originally from Northern Ireland, was given the vaccine at the University Hospital in Coventry, England. She received the first of 800,000 doses expected to be administered in the U.K. in the coming weeks, according to the BBC. "I feel so privileged to be the first person vaccinated against Covid-19," Keenan said, according to the BBC."It's the best early birthday present I could wish for because it means I can finally look forward to spending time with my family and friends in the new year after being on my own for most of the year." "My advice to anyone offered the vaccine is to take it. If I can have it at 90, then you can have it too," she added. Up to four million doses of Pfizer's vaccine is expected to be given to people in the U.K. by the end of the month. Meanwhile, a 53-page Food and Drug Administration (FDA) review published Tuesday (Dec. 8) confirmed that Pfizer's vaccine is safe and effective, according to The Washington Post.
Pfizer's COVID-19 vaccine starts to work just 10 days after 1st dose Pfizer's new COVID-19 vaccine starts to protect people from the novel coronavirus just 10 days after the first dose, according to new documents from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA). The documents were released on Tuesday (Dec. 8), two days before a meeting of the FDA's vaccine advisory panel, which will vote on whether to recommend authorization of the vaccine in the U.S, Live Science reported . The FDA analyzed data from Pfizer's phase 3 clinical trial, which included some 44,000 people in the United States, Brazil, Argentina, Germany and Turkey, about half of whom received the vaccine while the other half received a placebo. Both groups received two shots, 21 days apart. About 10 days after the first dose, there was a noticeable drop-off in new COVID-19 cases in the vaccine group compared with the placebo group, indicating that even one dose provides some protection, the report said. However, scientists don't know how long the protection from a single dose will last, so it will still be important for people to receive two shots, according to The New York Times . Overall, the vaccine was 52% effective after the first dose and 95% effective after the second dose, the report said.
People with significant allergies should avoid Pfizer vaccine, UK warns The U.K.'s Regulatory Agency is advising people with a history of "significant" allergic reactions to avoid Pfizer's coronavirus vaccine, after two National Health Service members developed severe allergic reactions to it on Tuesday (Dec. 8), Live Science reported. "As is common with new vaccines the MHRA (Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency) have advised on a precautionary basis that people with a significant history of allergic reactions do not receive this vaccination after two people with a history of significant allergic reactions responded adversely yesterday," Stephen Powis, the national medical director for England's National Health Service said in a statement on Wednesday (Dec. 9). Both workers have a history of severe allergies and carry adrenaline auto injectors (such as EpiPens) around with them, according to The Guardian. Shortly after receiving the vaccine, both NHS workers developed anaphylaxis-like symptoms, or severe allergic reactions, but have recovered after receiving treatment. The MHRA will investigate further and Pfizer and BioNTech will support their investigation, according to Reuters. "Allergic reaction occurs with quite a number of vaccines, and perhaps even more frequently with drugs. So it is not unexpected," Stephen Evans, a professor of pharmacoepidemiology at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine said in remarks to journalists published by Britain's Science Media Center. “What would be wise, as the MHRA have already advised, would be for anyone who has known severe allergic reaction such that they need to carry an EpiPen, to delay having a vaccination until the reason for the allergic reaction has been clarified," he said. For the general population this does not mean that they would need to be anxious about receiving the vaccination, he added. "One has to remember that even things like marmite [a quintessential British food spread] can cause unexpected severe allergic reactions.”
Canada approves Pfizer's COVID-19 vaccine Canada has authorized Pfizer's new COVID-19 vaccine, with the first doses expected to be administered there as early as next week. Health Canada, the country's health regulatory agency, said in a statement on Wednesday (Dec. 9) that it had determined that the vaccine "meets the Department's stringent safety, efficacy and quality requirements for use in Canada," according to CTV News . "We expect vaccines to arrive maybe as early as Monday [Dec. 14]. It takes time to prepare the vaccine," said Maj.-Gen. Dany Fortin, the top military general leading the vaccine rollout for the Public Health Agency of Canada, according to CTV News. The first doses could be administered by the middle of next week, he said. Canada is the third country in the world to authorize the Pfizer vaccine, following the United Kingdom and Bahrain. The country should receive up to 249,000 doses of the vaccine by the end of December, and has purchased 20 million doses total, with the option to purchase more, CTV News reported.
Daily COVID-19 death toll in the U.S. reaches record-high, surpassed 9/11 On Wednesday (Dec. 9), the U.S. recorded 3,124 new COVID-19 deaths, the highest daily death toll to date, according to CNN . In comparison, 2,977 people were killed in the 9/11 attacks. The U.S. has now recorded 280,488 deaths related to the virus, according to The COVID Tracking Project . A forecast from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention predicts that the total death toll can increase to between 332,000 and 362,000 by January 2, according to CNN. There are currently 106,671 people hospitalized with the virus in the U.S.; 20,903 of them are currently in the ICU and 7,621 are currently on a ventilator, according to the COVID Tracking Project. On Thursday (Dec. 10), the Vaccines and Related Biological Products Advisory Committee is set to meet to discuss an emergency use authorization for the Pfizer-BioNTech coronavirus vaccine.
FDA panel recommends authorization of Pfizer's COVID-19 vaccine A panel of experts for the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has recommended that the agency authorize Pfizer's new COVID-19 vaccine in the United States. On Thursday (Dec. 10), the panel voted 17 to 4 to recommend that the vaccine receive emergency use authorization (EUA) for people ages 16 and older, according to The New York Times . The FDA typically follows the advice of its panels, and so today's vote is an important step towards the vaccine's authorization. It is anticipated that the agency will officially authorize the vaccine on Saturday (Dec. 12), the Times reported. Several countries have already authorized Pfizer's vaccine, including Canada, the United Kingdom and Bahrain.
Vaccine approval could come this weekend, as U.S. continues to record high daily death tolls On Thursday (Dec. 10), the U.S. recorded another 2,902 COVID-19 deaths, a day after the country set a record of 3,253 deaths, according to Reuters . “Probably for the next 60 to 90 days, we’re going to have more deaths per day than we had on 9/11 or we had at Pearl Harbor,” Dr. Robert Redfield, the director of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, told the Council on Foreign Relations on Thursday, according to Reuters. "The reality is the vaccine approval this week is not going to really impact that, I think, to any degree for the next 60 days." On Thursday, the Vaccines and Related Biological Products Advisory Committee discussed, voted and recommended that the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) should grant an emergency use authorization for Pfizer's coronavirus vaccine. The Pfizer vaccine has already been approved in the U.K. and in Canada, and FDA approval for use in the U.S. could come this weekend.
Australia abandons local COVID-19 vaccine after it caused false-positive HIV tests An Australian COVID-19 vaccine that had shown promising results in early trials is being abandoned after researchers found that the shot caused false-positive results on HIV tests. On Friday (Dec. 11), Australian officials said they had canceled an order for some 51 million doses of the vaccine, which was being developed by The University of Queensland and CSL Ltd., a local biotech company, according to The New York Times . In an early trial with 216 participants, the vaccine appeared to be safe and to produce a robust immune response against COVID-19, according to a statement from CSL . But some volunteers falsely tested positive for HIV, which officials feared would undermine trust in the vaccine, the Times reported. The vaccine contained small fragments of an HIV protein, which helped stabilize the vaccine. Some of the participants developed antibodies against these fragments, and these antibodies triggered false positive results on some HIV tests. It's important to note that there is no way for the vaccine to cause an HIV infection, because it contains harmless fragments of the virus.
ICU nurse in New York becomes first person in the US to receive a coronavirus vaccine outside of clinical trials New York, the worst-hit state at the start of the pandemic, just became the first to administer a coronavirus vaccine outside of clinical trials, kicking off a long, massive effort to vaccinate the American people, Live Science reported. Around 9 a.m. E.T. on Monday (Dec. 14), the very first dose of Pfizer and BioNTech's coronavirus vaccine was given to Sandra Lindsay, an intensive care nurse in Long Island Jewish Medical Center in Queens, New York, according to The New York Times. This comes as the U.S. continues to battle a massive wave of the virus that has more than 109,000 people currently hospitalized, according to The COVID Tracking Project. Since the start of the pandemic, New York has recorded more than 780,000 cases of COVID-19 and more than 35,100 deaths, according to The Times. "This vaccine is exciting because I believe this is the weapon that will end the war," Gov. Andrew Cuomo said during a live broadcast of the first vaccination. "It's the beginning of the last chapter of the book, but now we just have to do it."
FDA analysis confirms Moderna's vaccine is safe and effective, emergency authorization is likely to come Friday A new briefing document from the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) released on Tuesday (Dec. 15) confirmed that Moderna's COVID-19 vaccine is safe and effective, according to NPR . Moderna's COVID-19 vaccine is 94% effective and has "a favorable safety profile," according to the document. A panel of experts is set to meet on Thursday (Dec. 17) to discuss the effectiveness and safety of the vaccine and vote on whether or not the FDA should grant emergency approval to the vaccine. Last week, the same panel voted that the FDA should grant emergency approval to Pfizer's coronavirus vaccine; the authorization came a day late and the first doses were given on Monday (Dec. 15). The FDA will likely approve Moderna's vaccine for emergency use on Friday (Dec. 18), according to The New York Times .
FDA authorizes first over-the-counter COVID-19 test The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has authorized the first over-the-counter COVID-19 test, which can be done at home and does not need a prescription. The test, made by the Australia-based company Ellume, provides results in as little as 20 minutes, according to a statement from the FDA . It is a "lateral flow antigen test," meaning it works in a similar way to a home pregnancy test, by running a "liquid sample along a surface with reactive molecules," the FDA said. The test works in conjunction with a smartphone app. Users take a nasal swab and place their sample in an analyzer, which communicates to the smartphone app via Bluetooth. The results are delivered through the app, and also reported to public health authorities (based on a user's zip code) through a secure cloud connection, the company said . Ellume is ramping up production of its test, and expects to produce three million tests in January 2021, and 20 million within the first half of 2021.
A wild mink tested positive for the coronavirus, it may be the first wild animal to have a confirmed case A wild mink in Utah may be the first "free-ranging, native wild animal" confirmed to be infected with SARS-CoV-2, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), Live Science reported. The mink was found near a mink farm and likely picked up the infection from the farmed mink. There's no evidence that the virus spread to other minks or wild animals; but if the virus does begin circulating in wild animals, it could pick up mutations that COVID-19 vaccines may not protect well against if it spreads back to humans, according to the report. "If it does [establish a reservoir], then we've got a long-term issue here, where this virus has the potential to be with us for millennia," Sarah Olson, associate director of the health program at the Wildlife Conservation Society, told Vox. The U.S. Department of Agriculture's Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service has screened other animal species for the virus near mink farms in Utah, Michigan and Wisconsin, but all of them have tested negative so far, according to a statement.
An FDA advisory panel will meet today to vote on whether to recommend Moderna's coronavirus vaccine for emergency approval On Thursday (Dec. 17), a Food and Drug Administration (FDA) advisory committee will meet to determine whether to recommend that Moderna’s coronavirus vaccine for emergency approval, according to The New York Times . This panel, composed of independent experts, will vote on whether to recommend the vaccine after hearing from the company, FDA scientists and the public, according to The Times. Last week, the same panel of experts met to discuss Pfizer’s coronavirus vaccine and voted to recommend emergency authorization; the authorization came the next day. There have now been more than 16.9 million cases of COVID-19 in the U.S. and more than 307,000 deaths, according to the Johns Hopkins dashboard . There are currently 113,090 people hospitalized across the country with more than 21,900 of them in the ICU and 7,778 on a ventilator, according to The COVID Tracking Project .
California becomes new epicenter of COVID-19 in U.S. California, once praised for its early pandemic response, is now the new U.S. hotspot for COVID-19 infections. The state has reported an alarming surge in cases, breaking previous records for daily cases. On Thursday (Dec. 17), the state reported some 50,000 COVID-19 infections in 24 hours, and nearly 100,000 in 48 hours, according to The Washington Post . That's more than the daily cases reported in many countries, including India, Germany and Britain, the Post reported. The state also set a record for daily deaths on Thursday, with 379 fatalities reported, up from the previous high of 293. Capacity in intensive care units has also dropped dramatically, with hospitals in Southern California reporting zero percent capacity on Thursday. "I want to be very clear: Our hospitals are under siege, and our model shows no end in sight," said Christina Ghaly, director of Los Angeles County's Department of Health Services, the Post reported.
FDA expected to authorize Moderna's vaccine on Friday The U.S. Food and Drug Administration is expected to authorize Moderna's COVID-19 vaccine on Friday (Dec. 18). Once authorized, it will be the second coronavirus vaccine to get the green light from the agency in just a week, with Pfizer's vaccine gaining authorization on Dec. 11. Moderna is expected to begin shipping 5.9 million doses of its vaccine on Sunday (Dec. 20), with the first deliveries arriving Monday (Dec. 21), according to The New York Times . Unlike the Pfizer vaccine, Moderna's vaccine does not require storage in extremely cold temperatures, and states are hoping to distribute the vaccine to rural hospitals and community health centers, the Times reported.
COVID-19 cases continue to surge across the U.S. There have now been more than 17 million cases of COVID-19 in the U.S. and more than 300,000 deaths, according to The COVID Tracking Project . There are currently 114,237 people hospitalized across the country and 21,900 people in the ICU. California is facing a massive surge in cases; the state reported 41,012 new COVID-19 cases and 300 new deaths on Thursday (Dec. 17), according to the state's COVID-19 dashboard . By comparison, at the start of November, California was reporting a seven-day average of 4,183 cases, compared to an average of 38,774 on Thursday, according to CNN . "We're experiencing an explosive and very deadly surge," Dr. Barbara Ferrer, Los Angeles County Public Health Director said, according to CNN. Intensive care unit beds are rapidly filling up across the state; there are only 1,234 ICU beds left available in California, according to the dashboard. Current closures across California are impacting around 98% of the state's population, according to CNN.
London and southeast England are under an emergency lockdown Following concerns of a new version of the coronavirus that might be more transmissible, London and most of southeast England are now under an emergency lockdown, according to The New York Times . Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced the lockdown on Saturday (Dec. 19) citing concerns that the mutated virus — which was detected a couple of weeks ago in southeast England — may be as much as 70% more transmissible than previous versions, according to the Times. The new version of the coronavirus is detected in more than 60% of new infections in London and have also been detected in several other countries, according to the Times. But it's not yet clear if this coronavirus version is any more infectious than the last and thorough analyses will need to be conducted before conclusions are made, scientists cautioned. In South Africa, a similar version of the virus has been found in up to 90% of new cases detected since mid-November, according to The Times . It's common for viruses to mutate, and this particular coronavirus has mutated many times since the start of the pandemic. But experts told The Times that it would take years for the virus to mutate enough such that it would make the current vaccines developed to fight COVID-19 ineffective.
Biden gets Pfizer's COVID-19 vaccine President-elect Joe Biden received a dose of Pfizer's new COVID-19 vaccine on Monday (Dec. 21), according to The New York Times . He received the shot on camera at the Christiana Hospital in Newark, Delaware. "I'm doing this to demonstrate that people should be prepared when it's available to take the vaccine. There's nothing to worry about," Biden said.
Antarctica has its 1st COVID-19 outbreak The first COVID-19 cases have been reported in Antarctica , meaning the disease has now spread to every continent in the world. On Tuesday (Dec. 22), Chilean officials reported an outbreak of 36 COVID-19 cases at the Chilean research base General Bernardo O'Higgins Riquelme on the Antarctic Peninsula, according to the BBC . Of these, 26 cases were military personnel and 10 were maintenance workers, the BBC reported. All of these cases have been evacuated from Antarctica to Punta Arenas, Chile, according to The Guardian . Antarctica had been COVID-19 free up until the current outbreak. The continent has no permanent residents, but about 1,000 people, including scientists and other workers, stayed there this past winter, The Guardian reported.
Live updates will continue in 2021!


livescience--2020-10-29--Rare full moon on Halloween will be seen across the US for the first time in 76 years

Moonrise on night will be just a little more spooktacular than usual this year .
The sky will be illuminated by a full — a rare Hallows ' Eve treat that happens only about once every 19 years .
Something else makes this full moon , known as a `` Hunter 's Moon , '' even more special : It 's the second one to occur in October .
That means it 's a `` Blue Moon , '' and the only double-full-moon event in 2020 , .
However , as the full moon comes at a time when the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , it will also be a `` Micro Moon , '' the opposite of a `` Super Moon , '' meaning it looks a little smaller than the usual full moon .
And if that still is n't enough names for you , its status as the second full moon of autumn makes it a `` Beaver Moon , '' according to NASA .
This will be the first time since 1944 that a Halloween full moon will be visible at night ( weather permitting ) in all time zones in the United @ @ @ @ @ @ @ full moon phase — determined by the moon 's position in its orbit , rather than its visibility in the sky — kicks off on Oct. 31 at 10:49 a.m .
E.D.T.
, the Almanac reports .
October began with a full moon — a `` `` — which rose on Oct. 1 .
The Harvest Moon is the first full moon to follow the September equinox , and it typically falls in October once every few years , .
A Blue Moon is n't literally blue , despite the colorful name .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ astronomy magazine Sky and Telescope began applying the term `` Blue Moon '' to the so-called `` extra '' full moon in a seasonal cycle , and over time , the name stuck , in 2006 .
Like all full moons , the Blue Moon rises in the east around sunset and sets in the west around sunrise .
It is highest overhead in the late night and very early morning hours , .
The term Beaver Moon ( which is also used for the November full moon , according to the Farmer @ @ @ @ @ @ @ name that may have been inspired by beavers ' seasonal flurry of activity as they prepare for winter .
But it could also refer to the autumn practice of setting beaver traps before the winter 's deep freeze , NASA says .
On average , the moon orbits at around 239,000 miles ( 385,000 kilometers ) from Earth .
During a full Micro Moon , such as this year 's Halloween event , the moon is about 31,000 miles ( 50,000 km ) farther from Earth than it would be during a full @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 's closest point to Earth in its orbit , .
And the moon is n't the only cosmic superstar shining brightly right now .
Skygazers this month have also been treated to exceptional views of Mars , which is currently in opposition — when Earth lies between Mars and the sun , an event that takes place about every two years .
Earth and Mars are also currently closest together in their orbital paths , further enhancing Mars 's brightness in the night sky .
The Red Planet has been visible all night @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , NASA says .

Moonrise on Halloween night will be just a little more spooktacular than usual this year. The sky will be illuminated by a full moon — a rare Hallows' Eve treat that happens only about once every 19 years.
Something else makes this full moon, known as a "Hunter's Moon," even more special: It's the second one to occur in October. That means it's a "Blue Moon," and the only double-full-moon event in 2020, according to NASA .
However, as the full moon comes at a time when the moon is at its farthest from Earth, it will also be a "Micro Moon," the opposite of a "Super Moon," meaning it looks a little smaller than the usual full moon. And if that still isn't enough names for you, its status as the second full moon of autumn makes it a "Beaver Moon," according to NASA.
Related: Gallery: The fantastic full moon
This will be the first time since 1944 that a Halloween full moon will be visible at night (weather permitting) in all time zones in the United States, according to the Farmer's Almanac . The full moon phase — determined by the moon's position in its orbit, rather than its visibility in the sky — kicks off on Oct. 31 at 10:49 a.m. E.D.T., the Almanac reports.
October began with a full moon — a " Harvest Moon " — which rose on Oct. 1. The Harvest Moon is the first full moon to follow the September equinox, and it typically falls in October once every few years, according to NASA .
A Blue Moon isn't literally blue, despite the colorful name. In the 1940s, contributors to the astronomy magazine Sky and Telescope began applying the term "Blue Moon" to the so-called "extra" full moon in a seasonal cycle, and over time, the name stuck, Sky and Telescope reported in 2006. Like all full moons, the Blue Moon rises in the east around sunset and sets in the west around sunrise. It is highest overhead in the late night and very early morning hours, according to NASA .
The full moon on Oct. 31 is the second full moon to appear during October 2020. (Image credit: NASA/JPL-Caltech)
The term Beaver Moon (which is also used for the November full moon, according to the Farmer's Almanac), is a traditional name that may have been inspired by beavers' seasonal flurry of activity as they prepare for winter. But it could also refer to the autumn practice of setting beaver traps before the winter's deep freeze, NASA says.
On average, the moon orbits at around 239,000 miles (385,000 kilometers) from Earth. During a full Micro Moon, such as this year's Halloween event, the moon is about 31,000 miles (50,000 km) farther from Earth than it would be during a full Super Moon during perigee — the moon's closest point to Earth in its orbit, according to NASA .
And the moon isn't the only cosmic superstar shining brightly right now. Skygazers this month have also been treated to exceptional views of Mars, which is currently in opposition — when Earth lies between Mars and the sun, an event that takes place about every two years. Earth and Mars are also currently closest together in their orbital paths, further enhancing Mars's brightness in the night sky. The Red Planet has been visible all night throughout October, appearing brightest at midnight, NASA says.
Originally published on Live Science.


livescience--2020-10-29--Man almost dies from an allergic reaction to cold air

Stepping out of a hot shower into a cold bathroom almost killed a Colorado man , who had developed a serious allergic reaction to cold temperatures .
The 34-year-old old man collapsed after getting out of the shower , and his family found him on the floor , according to a report of the case published Oct. 27 in .
The man was struggling to breathe and his skin was covered in hives .
He was experiencing a life-threatening , whole-body allergic reaction known as anaphylaxis .
When paramedics arrived , his family told them that the man had a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ cold weather , '' according to the report .
He had previously experienced hives as a reaction to the cold , but not anaphylaxis .
These episodes started after he moved from Micronesia , which has a tropical climate , to Colorado , which sees colder temperatures , the report said .
Paramedics treated the man with epinephrine and oxygen , and rushed him to the emergency room .
When he got to the hospital , he was sweating profusely and had hives all over his body .
Doctors diagnosed him with , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ exposure to cold temperatures , including cold air or cold water , according to the Mayo Clinic .
People can also develop symptoms after consuming cold food or drinks , .
The most common symptom is a red , itchy rash ( hives ) after exposure to the cold ; but in more serious cases , people can develop anaphylaxis , which can cause their blood pressure to plummet and airways to narrow , making breathing difficult .
These more severe reactions typically occur with full-body skin exposure to the cold , such @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , the Mayo Clinic says .
In the man 's case , his entire body was exposed to cold air after stepping out of his shower .
Doctor 's confirmed the man 's diagnosis using an `` ice cube test , '' which involves placing an ice cube on the skin for about 5 minutes .
If the patient develops a raised , red bump on the skin where the ice cube was , they are diagnosed with cold urticaria .
Exactly how common the condition is overall is not known — one @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 0.05 % , according to the .
Anaphylactic reactions are less common than hive-like reactions .
In most cases , the cause of the condition is not known , but sometimes it can be inherited , meaning people have a genetic predisposition .
In other people , cold urticaria is triggered by something that affects the immune system , such as a viral infection or certain cancers .
The allergic reaction happens because exposure to the cold causes the to release chemicals called histamines , which trigger an inflammatory response , .
At @ @ @ @ @ @ @ with antihistamine and steroids , and his condition improved .
Before he left the hospital , he was counseled to avoid exposure to cold water or other situations in which his whole body would be exposed to the cold .
He was also prescribed an , which can treat anaphylaxis in emergency situations .

Stepping out of a hot shower into a cold bathroom almost killed a Colorado man, who had developed a serious allergic reaction to cold temperatures.
The 34-year-old old man collapsed after getting out of the shower, and his family found him on the floor, according to a report of the case published Oct. 27 in The Journal of Emergency Medicine . The man was struggling to breathe and his skin was covered in hives. He was experiencing a life-threatening, whole-body allergic reaction known as anaphylaxis.
When paramedics arrived, his family told them that the man had a history of being "allergic to the cold weather," according to the report. He had previously experienced hives as a reaction to the cold, but not anaphylaxis. These episodes started after he moved from Micronesia, which has a tropical climate, to Colorado, which sees colder temperatures, the report said.
Related: The 9 weirdest allergies
Paramedics treated the man with epinephrine and oxygen, and rushed him to the emergency room. When he got to the hospital, he was sweating profusely and had hives all over his body.
Doctors diagnosed him with cold urticaria , an allergic reaction of the skin after exposure to cold temperatures, including cold air or cold water, according to the Mayo Clinic . People can also develop symptoms after consuming cold food or drinks, Live Science previously reported .
The most common symptom is a red, itchy rash (hives) after exposure to the cold; but in more serious cases, people can develop anaphylaxis, which can cause their blood pressure to plummet and airways to narrow, making breathing difficult. These more severe reactions typically occur with full-body skin exposure to the cold, such as when people swim in cold water, the Mayo Clinic says. In the man's case, his entire body was exposed to cold air after stepping out of his shower.
Doctor's confirmed the man's diagnosis using an "ice cube test," which involves placing an ice cube on the skin for about 5 minutes. If the patient develops a raised, red bump on the skin where the ice cube was, they are diagnosed with cold urticaria.
Exactly how common the condition is overall is not known — one study in Europe found a prevalence of 0.05%, according to the National Institutes of Health . Anaphylactic reactions are less common than hive-like reactions.
In most cases, the cause of the condition is not known, but sometimes it can be inherited, meaning people have a genetic predisposition. In other people, cold urticaria is triggered by something that affects the immune system, such as a viral infection or certain cancers.
The allergic reaction happens because exposure to the cold causes the immune system to release chemicals called histamines, which trigger an inflammatory response, Live Science previously reported .
At the hospital, the man was treated with antihistamine and steroids, and his condition improved. Before he left the hospital, he was counseled to avoid exposure to cold water or other situations in which his whole body would be exposed to the cold. He was also prescribed an epinephrine auto-injector , which can treat anaphylaxis in emergency situations.
Originally published on Live Science.


livescience--2020-10-29--Look Ma, no ears! Teensy spiders hear with organ on their legs

Ogre-faced spiders hang from their webs , and like gymnasts , they flip backwards to snatch flying insects from the air .
To hear their prey coming , the spiders `` listen '' for the flap of tiny wings using a special organ in their spindly legs , a new study has found .
The organ looks like a patch of parallel slits cut into the spider 's exoskeleton ; located near the tip of each leg , each slit measures between ( 10-200 nanometers ) in length .
These tiny slits contain nerve cells that detect minute changes in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the air ; the organ then sends this information to the brain .
Thus equipped , ogre-faced ( Deinopis spinosa ) can hear sounds up to 6.5 feet ( 2 meters ) away and pick up frequencies between 100 and 10,000 hertz , according to a new study , published Oct. 29 in the journal .
Humans can hear sounds between about 20 and 20,000 hertz , for context .
`` It 's very alien to us because we do n't have a sensory system like this , '' said study author Jay @ @ @ @ @ @ @ biology at Cornell University .
Humans , of course , use their to detect sounds , but spiders do n't have eardrums .
That said , Stafstrom and his colleagues suspected that the ogre-faced spider might rely on some form of hearing to snag flying prey from the air — and the new study supports that suspicion .
The authors found that certain sounds sent the spiders flipping ; as if on cue , the arachnids would hear the sound and perform a sudden half-backflip as if launching toward a passing bug .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ regions of Australia , Africa and parts of the United States , including Florida , according to ; the teeny spiders , which measure less than an inch ( 1.5-2.5 cm ) in length , hide among palm fronds and other vegetation and use their nimble acrobatics to catch moths , and flies that fly past .
The flip is `` ballistically rapid , it 's very quick … and they 're surprisingly accurate , '' in terms of enabling the spider to catch prey on the fly , Stafstrom told Live Science @ @ @ @ @ @ @ spider , with a tiny little , it 's very impressive . ''
In general , ogre-faced spiders are better known for their impressive vision than their hearing .
`` They 've got the biggest of any spider , '' Stafstrom said .
The spiders hide from predators throughout the day , camouflaged to blend in with the plants they live on .
At night , the arachnids emerge and use their two huge , night-vision eyes to spot crawling insects on the ground below .
To catch the creepy-crawlies , the spiders @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ground and ensnare bugs in a tiny , stretchable net that they hold between four legs .
The spiders deploy the same net to catch flying insects , but they contort their bodies backwards to aim the net upward , rather than lurching down toward the ground .
It was n't initially clear , however , if the spiders relied on their night-vision to aim the net at flying prey .
In a previous study , published 2016 in the journal Biology Letters , Stafstrom set out to determine whether ogre-faced spiders even @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
He blindfolded the spiders using dental silicone , a kind of opaque plastic , and found that they could no longer capture crawling prey from the ground , but they could still pluck flying insects right out of the air .
Clearly , they were relying on some other sense besides vision , Stafstrom said .
In the new study , Stafstrom and his co-authors played different sounds for the spiders to see if any would trigger their signature backflip .
When exposed to low-frequency sounds , between 150 Hz and 750 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ stretched their nets as if to catch a bug .
These low-frequency sounds mimic the wingbeat patterns of various flying insects , the authors noted .
The authors found that no sounds of any frequency caused the spiders to aim forward toward the ground , confirming that the spiders use their vision , not hearing , to catch crawling prey .
Compared with low-frequency sounds , high-frequency tones did not send the spiders somersaulting .
However , electrical recordings of the spiders ' brain cells revealed that specific groups of brain cells , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , specifically between 1,000 Hz and 10,000 Hz ; the sensory organ in the spiders ' legs reacted to the same range of sounds .
The authors speculate that , since flying insects do n't flap their wings at such high rates , the spiders might also listen for the high-pitched call of predator birds .
`` It might be an early warning sign , that a bird that could end your life may be in the vicinity , '' Stafstrom said .
`` We 're really interested in knowing , 'Can these @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , but the study did n't include frequencies high enough to mimic most bat chirps .
While the study of spider hearing remains quite new , several other arachnid species can also hear sound , Stafstrom noted .
For instance , jumping spiders sense and respond to sounds more than 9.8 feet ( 3 m ) away , .
Jumping spiders have pressure-sensitive leg hairs that respond to the movement of air particles around them .
Ogre-faced spiders also have these special leg hairs , and jumping spiders have the same sensory organ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
`` We suspect that both spiders are using both systems , '' but that has yet to be confirmed , Stafstrom said .
With the discovery that ogre-faced spiders use their hearing to capture prey , Stafstrom and his team now wonder how well the spiders can discern which direction a given sound is coming from .
They plan to place the spiders in an arena and play sounds from various angles , to see whether the spiders change up their acrobatic routine to aim their net in the corresponding direction .

Ogre-faced spiders hang from their webs, and like gymnasts, they flip backwards to snatch flying insects from the air. To hear their prey coming, the spiders "listen" for the flap of tiny wings using a special organ in their spindly legs, a new study has found.
The organ looks like a patch of parallel slits cut into the spider's exoskeleton; located near the tip of each leg, each slit measures between 0.0000003 and 0.000007 inches (10-200 nanometers) in length. These tiny slits contain nerve cells that detect minute changes in pressure caused by sound waves rippling through the air; the organ then sends this information to the brain.
Thus equipped, ogre-faced spiders (Deinopis spinosa) can hear sounds up to 6.5 feet (2 meters) away and pick up frequencies between 100 and 10,000 hertz, according to a new study, published Oct. 29 in the journal Current Biology . Humans can hear sounds between about 20 and 20,000 hertz, for context.
"It's very alien to us because we don't have a sensory system like this," said study author Jay Stafstrom, a postdoctoral researcher studying sensory biology at Cornell University.
Humans, of course, use their eardrums to detect sounds, but spiders don't have eardrums. That said, Stafstrom and his colleagues suspected that the ogre-faced spider might rely on some form of hearing to snag flying prey from the air — and the new study supports that suspicion.
Related: 21 totally sweet spider superlatives
The authors found that certain sounds sent the spiders flipping; as if on cue, the arachnids would hear the sound and perform a sudden half-backflip as if launching toward a passing bug. Ogre-faced spiders can be found in forested regions of Australia, Africa and parts of the United States, including Florida, according to Cosmos Magazine ; the teeny spiders, which measure less than an inch (1.5-2.5 cm) in length, hide among palm fronds and other vegetation and use their nimble acrobatics to catch moths, mosquitoes and flies that fly past.
The flip is "ballistically rapid, it's very quick … and they're surprisingly accurate," in terms of enabling the spider to catch prey on the fly, Stafstrom told Live Science. "From such a tiny little spider, with a tiny little brain , it's very impressive."
In general, ogre-faced spiders are better known for their impressive vision than their hearing. "They've got the biggest eyes of any spider," Stafstrom said. The spiders hide from predators throughout the day, camouflaged to blend in with the plants they live on. At night, the arachnids emerge and use their two huge, night-vision eyes to spot crawling insects on the ground below. To catch the creepy-crawlies, the spiders hang suspended from a web near the ground and ensnare bugs in a tiny, stretchable net that they hold between four legs.
The spiders deploy the same net to catch flying insects, but they contort their bodies backwards to aim the net upward, rather than lurching down toward the ground. It wasn't initially clear, however, if the spiders relied on their night-vision to aim the net at flying prey.
This photo shows an ogre-faced spider hanging upside down from its web with a tiny net held between its four front legs. (Image credit: Jay Stafstrom)
In a previous study, published 2016 in the journal Biology Letters, Stafstrom set out to determine whether ogre-faced spiders even needed their eyes to capture flying insects. He blindfolded the spiders using dental silicone, a kind of opaque plastic, and found that they could no longer capture crawling prey from the ground, but they could still pluck flying insects right out of the air. Clearly, they were relying on some other sense besides vision, Stafstrom said.
In the new study, Stafstrom and his co-authors played different sounds for the spiders to see if any would trigger their signature backflip. When exposed to low-frequency sounds, between 150 Hz and 750 Hz, the spiders lurched backwards and stretched their nets as if to catch a bug. These low-frequency sounds mimic the wingbeat patterns of various flying insects, the authors noted. The authors found that no sounds of any frequency caused the spiders to aim forward toward the ground, confirming that the spiders use their vision, not hearing, to catch crawling prey.
Related: Creepy, crawly and incredible: Photos of spiders
Compared with low-frequency sounds, high-frequency tones did not send the spiders somersaulting. However, electrical recordings of the spiders' brain cells revealed that specific groups of brain cells, or neurons, react to high frequencies, specifically between 1,000 Hz and 10,000 Hz; the sensory organ in the spiders' legs reacted to the same range of sounds. The authors speculate that, since flying insects don't flap their wings at such high rates, the spiders might also listen for the high-pitched call of predator birds.
"It might be an early warning sign, that a bird that could end your life may be in the vicinity," Stafstrom said. "We're really interested in knowing, 'Can these spiders hear bats ?'" he added, but the study didn't include frequencies high enough to mimic most bat chirps.
While the study of spider hearing remains quite new, several other arachnid species can also hear sound, Stafstrom noted.
For instance, jumping spiders sense and respond to sounds more than 9.8 feet (3 m) away, Live Science previously reported . Jumping spiders have pressure-sensitive leg hairs that respond to the movement of air particles around them. Ogre-faced spiders also have these special leg hairs, and jumping spiders have the same sensory organ in their legs as the ogre-faced does.
"We suspect that both spiders are using both systems," but that has yet to be confirmed, Stafstrom said.
With the discovery that ogre-faced spiders use their hearing to capture prey, Stafstrom and his team now wonder how well the spiders can discern which direction a given sound is coming from. They plan to place the spiders in an arena and play sounds from various angles, to see whether the spiders change up their acrobatic routine to aim their net in the corresponding direction.
Originally published on Live Science.


livescience--2020-10-29--Racist physicist sneers at Einstein and Jews in a 1927 anti-Semitic letter up for auction

In 1927 , a Nobel Prize-winning physicist named Philipp Lenard penned a letter to a colleague complaining about recent achievements by and musing that academia and the sciences were becoming dominated by Jews .
Lenard , an early supporter of Germany 's Nazi Party , remarked that a prestigious appointment for Einstein was undeserved ; he then wondered if non-Jews would soon be wiped out entirely .
The original letter , written in German , is up for auction at Nate D. Sanders Auctions in Los Angeles .
Bidding for the item , which also includes an English translation , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to the .
Related : 8 ways you can see Einstein 's theory of relativity in real life In the letter — written to physicist Wilhelm Wien , another Nobel Prize Laureate — Lenard bemoaned the `` Einstein action , '' referring to Einstein 's recent acceptance into the Bavarian Academy of Sciences in Munich , the auction listing says .
The `` shallow intellectuality '' of academia uplifting Einstein was an `` unexpected testimony of its domination by Jews , '' Lenard wrote .
He went on to wonder how his letter @ @ @ @ @ @ @ `` provided any non-Jewish persons are still alive then , '' he said .
But as Adolf Hitler gained power in Germany , it was n't non-Jews who were threatened with imminent annihilation .
From the start of World War II , the Nazis began systematically murdering Jews across Europe , according to the .
By the war 's end , an estimated 6 million Jews — more than two-thirds of European Jewry — had been killed .
Lenard , who was born in Hungary in 1862 , won the in 1905 for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to the discovery of electrons and , according to .
His experiments also explored the photoelectric effect — the ejection of electrons when light shines on metal — and he `` never forgave Einstein '' for achieving greater recognition regarding this phenomenon , The Nobel Foundation notes in a .
But Lenard 's enmity toward Einstein also reflected deep-seated anti-Semitic convictions .
Lenard was such a devoted member of Hitler ’ s National Socialist Party that Nazi officials named him Chief of Aryan Physics , according to the biography .
By 1927 , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ anti-Semitic sentiments were overtaking common decency in Germany , alongside a rising tide of fanatical nationalism and .
Five years earlier , in 1922 , to his sister Maja while in hiding ; he had fled Berlin after right-wing extremists murdered his friend Walther Rathenau , a fellow Jew and the German foreign minister .
`` I am doing quite well , in spite of all the anti-Semites among my German colleagues , '' Einstein wrote .
`` Here are brewing economically and politically dark times . ''
The auction for Lenard 's @ @ @ @ @ @ @ at 5 p.m. Pacific Time ( 8 p.m .
ET ) .

Racist musings by Nobel Prize-winner Philipp Lenard are preserved in a letter the physicist penned in 1927.
In 1927, a Nobel Prize-winning physicist named Philipp Lenard penned a letter to a colleague complaining about recent achievements by Albert Einstein and musing that academia and the sciences were becoming dominated by Jews.
Lenard, an early supporter of Germany's Nazi Party, remarked that a prestigious appointment for Einstein was undeserved; he then wondered if non-Jews would soon be wiped out entirely.
The original letter, written in German, is up for auction at Nate D. Sanders Auctions in Los Angeles. Bidding for the item, which also includes an English translation, starts at $16,000 US, according to the auction listing .
Related: 8 ways you can see Einstein's theory of relativity in real life
In the letter — written to physicist Wilhelm Wien, another Nobel Prize Laureate — Lenard bemoaned the "Einstein action," referring to Einstein's recent acceptance into the Bavarian Academy of Sciences in Munich, the auction listing says. The "shallow intellectuality" of academia uplifting Einstein was an "unexpected testimony of its domination by Jews," Lenard wrote.
He went on to wonder how his letter might be viewed in the future, "provided any non-Jewish persons are still alive then," he said.
But as Adolf Hitler gained power in Germany, it wasn't non-Jews who were threatened with imminent annihilation. From the start of World War II, the Nazis began systematically murdering Jews across Europe, according to the U.S. Holocaust Memorial Museum . By the war's end, an estimated 6 million Jews — more than two-thirds of European Jewry — had been killed.
Lenard, who was born in Hungary in 1862, won the Nobel Prize in Physics in 1905 for his work on cathode rays, leading to the discovery of electrons and X-rays , according to The Nobel Foundation . His experiments also explored the photoelectric effect — the ejection of electrons when light shines on metal — and he "never forgave Einstein" for achieving greater recognition regarding this phenomenon, The Nobel Foundation notes in a biography .
But Lenard's enmity toward Einstein also reflected deep-seated anti-Semitic convictions. Lenard was such a devoted member of Hitler’s National Socialist Party that Nazi officials named him Chief of Aryan Physics, according to the biography.
By 1927, Einstein was already well aware that dangerous anti-Semitic sentiments were overtaking common decency in Germany, alongside a rising tide of fanatical nationalism and fascism . Five years earlier, in 1922, Einstein penned a note to his sister Maja while in hiding; he had fled Berlin after right-wing extremists murdered his friend Walther Rathenau, a fellow Jew and the German foreign minister.
"I am doing quite well, in spite of all the anti-Semites among my German colleagues," Einstein wrote. "Here are brewing economically and politically dark times."
The auction for Lenard's letter ends today (Oct. 29) at 5 p.m. Pacific Time (8 p.m. ET).
Originally published on Live Science.


livescience--2020-10-29--An Earth-size planet is careening untethered through the galaxy, scientists find

orbits the sun like a ship sailing in circles around its anchor .
But what if someone — or something — cut that ship loose ?
Unbound from any star or solar system , what would become of a tiny world flying helplessly and heedlessly through interstellar space ?
What happens when a planet goes rogue ?
Scientists suspect that billions of free-floating or `` rogue '' planets may exist in the Milky Way , but so far only a handful of candidates have turned up among the 4,000-or-so worlds discovered beyond our .
Most of these potential rogue planets @ @ @ @ @ @ @ from two to 40 times the mass of Jupiter ( one Jupiter is equivalent to about 300 Earths ) .
But now , astronomers believe they 've detected a rogue world like no other : a tiny , free-floating planet , roughly the mass of Earth , gallivanting through the gut of the Milky Way .
This discovery , reported today ( Oct. 29 ) in the , may mark the smallest rogue planet ever detected , and it could help prove a long-standing cosmic theory .
According to the study authors , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ real evidence that free-floating , Earth-sized planets may be some of the most common objects in the galaxy .
Related : 9 Strange Excuses for Why We Have n't Met Aliens Yet '' The odds of detecting such a low-mass object are extremely low , '' lead study author Przemek Mroz , a postdoctoral scholar at the California Institute of Technology , told Live Science in an email .
`` Either we were very lucky , or such objects are very common in the Milky Way .
They may be as common as @ @ @ @ @ @ @ galaxy are visible only because of their host stars .
In a literal sense , stars provide the light that allows astronomers to directly observe alien worlds .
When a planet is too small or too distant to be seen directly , scientists can still detect it from the slight gravitational pull it exerts on its host star ( called the radial velocity method ) or by the flickering that occurs when a planet passes in front of the star 's Earth-facing side ( the transit method ) .
Rogue planets , by @ @ @ @ @ @ @ their way — or to light a telescope 's way to them .
Instead , detecting rogue planets involves a facet of Einstein 's theory of known as gravitational lensing .
Through this phenomenon , a planet ( or even more massive object ) acts as a cosmic magnifying glass that temporarily bends the light of objects behind it from Earth 's perspective .
`` If a massive object passes between an Earth-based observer and a distant source star , its gravity may deflect and focus light from the source , '' Mroz @ @ @ @ @ @ @ short brightening of the source star . ''
The smaller that light-bending object is , the briefer the star 's perceived brightening will be .
While a planet several times the mass of Jupiter might create a brightening effect that lasts a few days , a measly planet the mass of Earth will brighten the source star for only a few hours , or less , the researchers said .
This exceptionally rare occurrence is called `` microlensing . ''
`` Chances of observing microlensing are extremely slim , '' Mroz added in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ only one source star , we would have to wait almost a million years to see the source being microlensed . ''
Fortunately , Mroz and his colleagues were n't observing just one star for their study — they were watching hundreds of millions of them .
Using observations from the Optical Gravitational Lensing Experiment ( OGLE ) , a star survey based at the University of Warsaw in Poland that has turned up at least 17 exoplanets since 1992 , the team stared into the center of the Milky Way , looking @ @ @ @ @ @ @ June 2016 , they witnessed the shortest microlensing event ever seen .
The star in question , located roughly 27,000 light-years away in the densest part of the galaxy , brightened for just 42 minutes .
Calculations showed that the offending object was not bound to any star within 8 astronomical units ( AU , or eight times the average distance from Earth to the sun ) , suggesting it was almost certainly a tiny planet on the run , ejected from its home solar system after a brush with a much more @ @ @ @ @ @ @ away the planet is from the source star ( it 's impossible to tell with current technology ) , the rogue world is likely between one-half and one Earth mass .
In either case , this roaming world would be the lowest-mass rogue planet ever detected .
According to Mroz , that 's a `` huge milestone '' for the science of planet formation .
`` Theories of planet formation have predicted that the majority of free-floating planets should be of Earth mass or smaller , but this is the first time that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , '' Mroz said .
`` It 's really amazing that Einstein 's theory allows us to detect a tiny piece of rock floating in the galaxy . ''
Many more tiny pieces of rock may soon follow , study co-author Radek Poleski of the University of Warsaw told Live Science .
Future planet-hunting telescopes , like NASA 's ( slated to launch in the mid-2020s ) , will be much more sensitive to the galaxy 's teensiest microlensing events than the nearly 30-year-old OGLE experiment is , Poleski said .
If orphan @ @ @ @ @ @ @ indeed some of the most common denizens of the galaxy , it should n't be long before many more of them turn up .

Earth
orbits the sun like a ship sailing in circles around its anchor. But what if someone — or something — cut that ship loose? Unbound from any star or solar system, what would become of a tiny world flying helplessly and heedlessly through interstellar space? What happens when a planet goes rogue?
Scientists suspect that billions of free-floating or "rogue" planets may exist in the Milky Way, but so far only a handful of candidates have turned up among the 4,000-or-so worlds discovered beyond our solar system . Most of these potential rogue planets appear to be enormous, measuring anywhere from two to 40 times the mass of Jupiter (one Jupiter is equivalent to about 300 Earths). But now, astronomers believe they've detected a rogue world like no other: a tiny, free-floating planet, roughly the mass of Earth, gallivanting through the gut of the Milky Way.
This discovery, reported today (Oct. 29) in the Astrophysical Journal Letters , may mark the smallest rogue planet ever detected, and it could help prove a long-standing cosmic theory. According to the study authors, this little world could be the first real evidence that free-floating, Earth-sized planets may be some of the most common objects in the galaxy.
Related: 9 Strange Excuses for Why We Haven't Met Aliens Yet
"The odds of detecting such a low-mass object are extremely low," lead study author Przemek Mroz, a postdoctoral scholar at the California Institute of Technology, told Live Science in an email. "Either we were very lucky, or such objects are very common in the Milky Way. They may be as common as stars."
Einstein's magnifying glass
Most exoplanets in our galaxy are visible only because of their host stars. In a literal sense, stars provide the light that allows astronomers to directly observe alien worlds. When a planet is too small or too distant to be seen directly, scientists can still detect it from the slight gravitational pull it exerts on its host star (called the radial velocity method) or by the flickering that occurs when a planet passes in front of the star's Earth-facing side (the transit method).
Rogue planets, by definition, have no star to light their way — or to light a telescope's way to them. Instead, detecting rogue planets involves a facet of Einstein's theory of general relativity known as gravitational lensing. Through this phenomenon, a planet (or even more massive object) acts as a cosmic magnifying glass that temporarily bends the light of objects behind it from Earth's perspective.
"If a massive object passes between an Earth-based observer and a distant source star, its gravity may deflect and focus light from the source," Mroz explained in a statement . "The observer will measure a short brightening of the source star."
An artist's impression of a gravitational microlensing event by a free-floating, or rogue, planet. In microlensing, gravity from an object causes the light from a background source to bend, an astronomical phenomenon that shows up as distortions in images taken from Earth. (Image credit: Jan Skowron / Astronomical Observatory, University of Warsaw)
The smaller that light-bending object is, the briefer the star's perceived brightening will be. While a planet several times the mass of Jupiter might create a brightening effect that lasts a few days, a measly planet the mass of Earth will brighten the source star for only a few hours, or less, the researchers said. This exceptionally rare occurrence is called "microlensing."
"Chances of observing microlensing are extremely slim," Mroz added in the statement. "If we observed only one source star, we would have to wait almost a million years to see the source being microlensed."
Fortunately, Mroz and his colleagues weren't observing just one star for their study — they were watching hundreds of millions of them. Using observations from the Optical Gravitational Lensing Experiment (OGLE), a star survey based at the University of Warsaw in Poland that has turned up at least 17 exoplanets since 1992, the team stared into the center of the Milky Way , looking for any signs of microlensing.
In June 2016, they witnessed the shortest microlensing event ever seen. The star in question, located roughly 27,000 light-years away in the densest part of the galaxy, brightened for just 42 minutes. Calculations showed that the offending object was not bound to any star within 8 astronomical units (AU, or eight times the average distance from Earth to the sun), suggesting it was almost certainly a tiny planet on the run, ejected from its home solar system after a brush with a much more massive object.
Depending on how far away the planet is from the source star (it's impossible to tell with current technology), the rogue world is likely between one-half and one Earth mass. In either case, this roaming world would be the lowest-mass rogue planet ever detected. According to Mroz, that's a "huge milestone" for the science of planet formation.
"Theories of planet formation have predicted that the majority of free-floating planets should be of Earth mass or smaller, but this is the first time that we could find such a low-mass planet," Mroz said. "It's really amazing that Einstein's theory allows us to detect a tiny piece of rock floating in the galaxy."
Many more tiny pieces of rock may soon follow, study co-author Radek Poleski of the University of Warsaw told Live Science. Future planet-hunting telescopes, like NASA's Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope (slated to launch in the mid-2020s), will be much more sensitive to the galaxy's teensiest microlensing events than the nearly 30-year-old OGLE experiment is, Poleski said. If orphan planets of roughly Earth's mass are indeed some of the most common denizens of the galaxy, it shouldn't be long before many more of them turn up.
Originally published on Live Science.


livescience--2020-10-30--Will our solar system survive the death of our sun?

Our death is a long way off — about 4.5 billion years , give or take — but someday it 's going to happen , and what then for our solar system ?
The trouble begins before the death proper : The first thing we have to contend with is the elderly sun itself .
As the continues inside the sun , the result of that reaction — helium — builds up in the core .
With all the waste product hanging around , it gets harder for the sun to do its fusion dance .
But the inward crushing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ n't change , so to maintain balance the sun has to increase the temperature of its fusion reactions , leading ironically to a hotter core .
This means that as the sun ages , it gets steadily brighter .
The dinosaurs knew a dimmer sun than we see today , and in as little as a few hundred million years , will get too hot to handle .
Our atmosphere will get stripped away .
Our oceans will evaporate .
For awhile , we 'll look something like , locked in a choking @ @ @ @ @ @ @ it gets worse .
In the final stages of hydrogen fusion , our sun will swell and swell , becoming distorted and bloated — and red .
The red giant sun will consume and Venus for sure .
It might or might not spare Earth , depending on exactly how large it gets .
If the sun 's distended atmosphere does reach our world , Earth will dissolve in less than a day .
But even if the sun 's expansion stops short , it wo n't be pretty for Earth .
The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ be intense enough to vaporize rocks , leaving behind nothing more than the dense iron core of our planet .
The outer planets wo n't enjoy the increased radiation output from the sun , either .
The rings of Saturn are made of almost pure water ice , and the future sun will simply be too hot for them to survive .
The same goes for the ice-locked worlds orbiting those giants .
Europa , Enceladus , and all the rest will lose their icy shells .
At first , the increased radiation @ @ @ @ @ @ @ stripping away their atmospheres , which are just as fragile as that of a terrestrial planet .
But as the sun continues to swell , some of the outer tendrils of its atmosphere can find their way to the giants , traveling through funnels of gravity .
Feeding on that material , the outer planets can gorge themselves , becoming far larger than they ever were before .
But the sun still wo n't be done .
In its final stages , it will repeatedly swell and contract , pulsing for millions of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ stable situation , gravitationally speaking .
The deranged sun will push and pull the outer planets in odd directions , potentially drawing them into a deadly embrace or kicking them entirely out of the system .
For a few hundred million years , the outermost parts of our solar system will be a decent place to call home .
With so much heat and radiation pouring from the red giant sun , the habitable zone — the region around a star where the temperatures are just right for liquid water — will shift @ @ @ @ @ @ @ at first the moons of the outer worlds will melt , losing their icy shells and potentially hosting liquid water oceans on their surfaces .
Eventually , the , including Pluto and its mysterious friends , will also lose their ices .
The largest may transform into mini-Earths orbiting a distant , distorted red sun .
But eventually , our sun will give up the struggle , shrugging off its outer atmosphere in a series of outbursts that leave behind the star 's core : a white-hot lump of carbon and oxygen .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ hot , blasting off X-ray radiation that can do brutal damage to life as we know it .
But within a billion years or so , the will settle down to more manageable temperatures and simply hang out for trillions upon trillions of years .
That dim white dwarf will host a new habitable zone , but because the former sun will be so cool , that zone would be incredibly close , much closer than Mercury orbits our sun today .
At that distance , any planet ( or planetary core ) @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a pretty way of saying the gravity of the white dwarf could inadvertently rip a planet to shreds .
But that may be the best we 'll get .
Learn more by listening to the episode `` Can planets survive the death of their star ? ''
on the Ask A Spaceman podcast , available on iTunes and on the Web at http : //www.askaspaceman.com .
Thanks to Guy R. for the questions that led to this piece !
Ask your own question on Twitter using # AskASpaceman or by following Paul @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is an astrophysicist at SUNY Stony Brook and the Flatiron Institute , host of Ask a Spaceman and Space Radio , and author of How to Die in Space .

Our sun's death is a long way off — about 4.5 billion years, give or take — but someday it's going to happen, and what then for our solar system?
The trouble begins before the death proper: The first thing we have to contend with is the elderly sun itself. As the fusion of hydrogen continues inside the sun, the result of that reaction — helium — builds up in the core.
With all the waste product hanging around, it gets harder for the sun to do its fusion dance. But the inward crushing weight of the sun's atmosphere doesn't change, so to maintain balance the sun has to increase the temperature of its fusion reactions, leading ironically to a hotter core.
Related: Solar system facts: A guide to things orbiting our sun
This means that as the sun ages, it gets steadily brighter. The dinosaurs knew a dimmer sun than we see today, and in as little as a few hundred million years, Earth will get too hot to handle.
Our atmosphere will get stripped away. Our oceans will evaporate. For awhile, we'll look something like Venus , locked in a choking, carbon dioxide atmosphere.
And then it gets worse.
In the final stages of hydrogen fusion, our sun will swell and swell, becoming distorted and bloated — and red. The red giant sun will consume Mercury and Venus for sure. It might or might not spare Earth, depending on exactly how large it gets. If the sun's distended atmosphere does reach our world, Earth will dissolve in less than a day.
But even if the sun's expansion stops short, it won't be pretty for Earth. The extreme energies emitted by the sun will be intense enough to vaporize rocks, leaving behind nothing more than the dense iron core of our planet.
Shuffling the deck
The outer planets won't enjoy the increased radiation output from the sun, either. The rings of Saturn are made of almost pure water ice, and the future sun will simply be too hot for them to survive. The same goes for the ice-locked worlds orbiting those giants. Europa, Enceladus, and all the rest will lose their icy shells.
At first, the increased radiation will blast the four outer planets, stripping away their atmospheres, which are just as fragile as that of a terrestrial planet. But as the sun continues to swell, some of the outer tendrils of its atmosphere can find their way to the giants, traveling through funnels of gravity. Feeding on that material, the outer planets can gorge themselves, becoming far larger than they ever were before.
But the sun still won't be done. In its final stages, it will repeatedly swell and contract, pulsing for millions of years. This isn't the most stable situation, gravitationally speaking. The deranged sun will push and pull the outer planets in odd directions, potentially drawing them into a deadly embrace or kicking them entirely out of the system.
A new home
For a few hundred million years, the outermost parts of our solar system will be a decent place to call home. With so much heat and radiation pouring from the red giant sun, the habitable zone — the region around a star where the temperatures are just right for liquid water — will shift outward.
As we saw above, at first the moons of the outer worlds will melt, losing their icy shells and potentially hosting liquid water oceans on their surfaces. Eventually, the Kuiper belt objects , including Pluto and its mysterious friends, will also lose their ices. The largest may transform into mini-Earths orbiting a distant, distorted red sun.
But eventually, our sun will give up the struggle, shrugging off its outer atmosphere in a series of outbursts that leave behind the star's core: a white-hot lump of carbon and oxygen.
This white dwarf will initially be staggeringly hot, blasting off X-ray radiation that can do brutal damage to life as we know it. But within a billion years or so, the white dwarf will settle down to more manageable temperatures and simply hang out for trillions upon trillions of years.
That dim white dwarf will host a new habitable zone, but because the former sun will be so cool, that zone would be incredibly close, much closer than Mercury orbits our sun today.
At that distance, any planet (or planetary core) would be vulnerable to tidal disruption — a pretty way of saying the gravity of the white dwarf could inadvertently rip a planet to shreds.
But that may be the best we'll get.
Learn more by listening to the episode "Can planets survive the death of their star?" on the Ask A Spaceman podcast, available on iTunes and on the Web at http://www.askaspaceman.com. Thanks to Guy R. for the questions that led to this piece! Ask your own question on Twitter using #AskASpaceman or by following Paul @PaulMattSutter and facebook.com/PaulMattSutter.


livescience--2020-10-30--Gravitational-wave treasure trove reveals dozens of black hole crashes

Scientists can now catch better than ever before .
Although physicists only observed the first of these cosmic `` chirps '' in 2015 , subsequent improvements in the detectors have opened up more and more of these signals to scientific study .
The twin ( LIGO ) detectors in Louisiana and Washington , plus a European counterpart called Virgo , are currently on another observing hiatus for the and ongoing upgrades , but scientists affiliated with the project have spent their time combing through data to create a new catalog of dozens of gravitational-wave signals detected during the first half @ @ @ @ @ @ @ which ran from April to September 2019 .
`` One key to finding a new gravitational-wave signal about once every five days over six months were the upgrades and improvements of the two LIGO detectors and the Virgo detector , '' Karsten Danzmann , director at the Max Planck Institute for Gravitational Physics in Germany , .
In images : The amazing discovery of a neutron-star crash , gravitational waves & more In particular , he pointed to new hardware like lasers and mirrors , plus new techniques for reducing background noise .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ our detectors could pick up the signal from , say , merging by a factor of four ! ''
Danzmann said .
The better sensitivity has allowed scientists to capture more gravitational waves , but also a more diverse array of signals , according to researchers affiliated with the project .
`` When you look at the catalog , there 's one thing all events have in common : They come from mergers of compact objects such as or neutron stars .
But if you look more closely , they all are quite @ @ @ @ @ @ @ physicist at the Max Planck Institute for Gravitational Physics in Germany , said in the statement .
`` We 're getting a richer picture of the population of gravitational-wave sources .
The masses of these objects span a very wide mass range from about that of our sun to more than 90 times that , some of them are closer to Earth , some of them are very far away . ''
A handful of the 39 detections included in the new release have already hit headlines , including the first observed , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , and the first observed merger to include a mysterious object that falls in the size range between neutron stars and black holes .
But those are n't the only intriguing detections in the batch , the researchers emphasized .
One of the detections might represent a small black hole and a neutron star , a that physicists have been waiting to see .
`` Unfortunately the signal is rather faint , so we can not be entirely sure , '' Serguei Ossokine , another physicist at the institute said in the release @ @ @ @ @ @ @ holes scientists have observed merging to date , he added — one about six times the mass of the sun and the other half again as large .
And there 's still more data to be studied .
The second half of the same observing run began in November 2019 and lasted until the coronavirus pandemic forced the detectors to send scientific staff home for safety in late March 2020 .
Email Meghan Bartels at mbartels @ space.com or follow her on Twitter @ meghanbartels .
Follow us on Twitter @ Spacedotcom and @ @ @

Scientists can now catch gravitational waves better than ever before.
Although physicists only observed the first of these cosmic "chirps" in 2015, subsequent improvements in the detectors have opened up more and more of these signals to scientific study. The twin Laser Interferometer Gravitational-Wave Observatory (LIGO) detectors in Louisiana and Washington, plus a European counterpart called Virgo, are currently on another observing hiatus for the coronavirus pandemic and ongoing upgrades, but scientists affiliated with the project have spent their time combing through data to create a new catalog of dozens of gravitational-wave signals detected during the first half of the third joint observing campaign, which ran from April to September 2019.
"One key to finding a new gravitational-wave signal about once every five days over six months were the upgrades and improvements of the two LIGO detectors and the Virgo detector," Karsten Danzmann, director at the Max Planck Institute for Gravitational Physics in Germany, said in a statement .
In images: The amazing discovery of a neutron-star crash, gravitational waves & more
In particular, he pointed to new hardware like lasers and mirrors, plus new techniques for reducing background noise. "This increased the volume in which our detectors could pick up the signal from, say, merging neutron stars by a factor of four!" Danzmann said.
The better sensitivity has allowed scientists to capture more gravitational waves, but also a more diverse array of signals, according to researchers affiliated with the project.
"When you look at the catalog, there's one thing all events have in common: They come from mergers of compact objects such as black holes or neutron stars. But if you look more closely, they all are quite different," Frank Ohme, a physicist at the Max Planck Institute for Gravitational Physics in Germany, said in the statement. "We're getting a richer picture of the population of gravitational-wave sources. The masses of these objects span a very wide mass range from about that of our sun to more than 90 times that, some of them are closer to Earth, some of them are very far away."
A handful of the 39 detections included in the new release have already hit headlines, including the first observed lopsided black-hole merger , the first observed merger to create an intermediate-mass black hole , and the first observed merger to include a mysterious object that falls in the size range between neutron stars and black holes.
But those aren't the only intriguing detections in the batch, the researchers emphasized. One of the detections might represent a small black hole and a neutron star, a mixed merger that physicists have been waiting to see. "Unfortunately the signal is rather faint, so we cannot be entirely sure," Serguei Ossokine, another physicist at the institute said in the release.
Another detection represents the lightest black holes scientists have observed merging to date, he added — one about six times the mass of the sun and the other half again as large.
And there's still more data to be studied. The second half of the same observing run began in November 2019 and lasted until the coronavirus pandemic forced the detectors to send scientific staff home for safety in late March 2020.
Email Meghan Bartels at mbartels@space.com or follow her on Twitter @meghanbartels. Follow us on Twitter @Spacedotcom and on Facebook.


livescience--2020-10-30--Why Americans are so enamored with election polls

The Republican pollster Frank Luntz warned on Twitter and elsewhere the other day that if preelection polls in this year ’ s presidential race are embarrassingly wrong again , “ then the polling industry is done.
” It was quite the forecast .
While it is possible the polls will misfire , it ’ s exceedingly unlikely that such failure would cause the opinion research industry to implode or wither away .
One reason is that election polls represent a sliver of a well-established , multibillion-dollar industry that conducts innumerable surveys on policy issues , consumer product preferences and other @ @ @ @ @ @ @ so vulnerable to election polling failure , the field likely would have disintegrated long ago , after the successive embarrassments of 1948 and 1952 .
In 1948 , pollsters confidently – but wrongly – predicted Thomas E. Dewey would easily unseat President Harry Truman .
In 1952 , pollsters turned cautious and anticipated a close race between Dwight Eisenhower and Adlai Stevenson .
Eisenhower won in a landslide that no pollster foresaw .
“ Predictive failure , ” I note in my latest book , “ Lost in a Gallup : Polling Failure @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ has not killed off election polling.
” So what , then , accounts for its tenacity and resilience ?
Why are election polls still with us , despite periodic flubs , fiascoes and miscalls ?
Why , indeed , are many Americans so intrigued by election polling , especially during presidential campaigns ?
The reasons are several , and not surprisingly tied to deep currents in American life .
They embrace – but go well beyond – a simplistic explanation that people want to know what ’ s going to happen .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ President Jimmy Carter , spoke to that tendency years ago , saying , “ Everyone follows polls because everything in American life is geared to the question of who ’ s going to win – whether it ’ s sports or politics or whatever .
There ’ s a natural curiosity.
” More substantively , election polling projects the sense , or illusion , of precision , which holds considerable appeal in troubled times .
A hunger for certainty runs deep , especially in journalism , where reporters frequently encounter ambiguity and evasion @ @ @ @ @ @ @ organizations such as The New York Times and CBS News have conducted or commissioned their own election polls .
And reports of crude preelection polls have been found in American newspapers published as long ago as 1824 .
These days , polls guide , drive and help fix news media narratives about presidential elections .
They are critical to shaping conventional wisdom about the competitiveness of those races .
But polls have an uneven record in modern presidential elections – which , paradoxically , has contributed to their resilience .
Americans are mostly @ @ @ @ @ @ @ be vaguely familiar with the “ Dewey defeats Truman ” debacle of 1948 .
And they may recall that election polls in 2016 veered off target in key Midwestern states , disrupting expectations that Hillary Clinton would win the presidency .
But other cases , such as the unforeseen landslide of 1952 or the close election that wasn ’ t in 1980 , are not often recalled .
So polling is at least somewhat shielded from reproach by unfamiliarity with its uneven performance record over time .
Of course , election polls are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ redeem themselves , which is another value in American life .
Analogies from the sporting world further help to explain polling ’ s tenacity .
Election polling , and its emphasis on who ’ s ahead and who ’ s sinking , long has been likened to a horse race – a metaphor not always agreeable to pollsters .
Archibald Crossley , a pioneer of modern opinion research , revealed as much before the debacle of 1948 , in a letter to his friend and rival pollster , George Gallup .
“ I @ @ @ @ @ @ @ wrote , “ that polls are still thought of as horse-race predictions , and it seems to me that we might be able to do something jointly to prevent such a reputation.
” Crossley ’ s “ distinct impression ” endures .
Polls , and the coverage of polls , still invite comparisons to the horse race .
A better analogy , perhaps , is that polling resembles a high-wire act .
A presidential election plays out over many months , typically to growing attention and building anticipation .
Whether pollsters will slip @ @ @ @ @ @ @ becomes a bit of mild election drama itself .
When forecasts go awry , as they did in 2016 , astonishment inevitably follows .
For example , Nate Silver , the data journalist who founded the FiveThirtyEight.com polling-analysis and predictions site , said Donald Trump ’ s victory was , broadly speaking , “ the most shocking political development of my lifetime.
” Many pollsters insist that election polls are snapshots , not prophesies .
But they don ’ t much mind crowing when their final surveys come close to estimating the outcome @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a month after the 2016 presidential election , when Rasmussen Reports declared that it had said all along “ it was a much closer race than most other pollsters predicted .
We weren ’ t surprised Election Night … look who came in second out of 11 top pollsters who surveyed the four-way race.
” George Gallup did much the same in the early years of modern survey research , taking out self-congratultory advertisements in the Editor & Publisher trade journal to tout polling successes in presidential races in 1940 and 1944 .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ Record for Election Accuracy !
” one of those ads proclaimed .
[ Get our most insightful politics and election stories .
Sign up for The Conversation ’ s Politics Weekly . ]
The proliferation of surveys over the years – Nate Silver ’ s site provides ratings of dozens of pollsters – also allows a sort of team-sport approach to election polls : Savvy consumers can identify and follow preferred pollsters and mostly ignore the rest .
Not that this is necessarily advisable , but it is an option allowed by the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ can be routinely tracked in the runup to elections at RealClearPolitics.com .
So , for example , supporters of Donald Trump may take heart from Rasmussen surveys , which have been far more favorable to the president during the 2020 campaign than , say , polls conducted for CNN .
Polling , fundamentally , is an imperfect attempt at providing insight and explanation .
The desire for insight and explanation is , of course , never ending , so polls endure despite their flaws and failures .
They surely will remain features of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ week ’ s election turns out .
This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license .
Read the original article .
Follow all of the Expert Voices issues and debates — and become part of the discussion — on Facebook and Twitter .
The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the publisher .
This version of the article was originally published on Live Science .

Supporters on election night 2016 at a Hillary Clinton party, when it became clear poll-based forecasts had been off target.
The Republican pollster Frank Luntz warned on Twitter and elsewhere the other day that if preelection polls in this year’s presidential race are embarrassingly wrong again, “then the polling industry is done.”
It was quite the forecast.
While it is possible the polls will misfire, it’s exceedingly unlikely that such failure would cause the opinion research industry to implode or wither away. One reason is that election polls represent a sliver of a well-established, multibillion-dollar industry that conducts innumerable surveys on policy issues, consumer product preferences and other nonelection topics.
If opinion research were so vulnerable to election polling failure, the field likely would have disintegrated long ago, after the successive embarrassments of 1948 and 1952. In 1948, pollsters confidently – but wrongly – predicted Thomas E. Dewey would easily unseat President Harry Truman. In 1952, pollsters turned cautious and anticipated a close race between Dwight Eisenhower and Adlai Stevenson. Eisenhower won in a landslide that no pollster foresaw.
If pollsters get it wrong again, then the polling industry is done.You can get it wrong once. But if they get it wrong a second time and Trump does win, it’s going to be the end of public polling in politics. https://t.co/0fvDEta1rMOctober 22, 2020 See more
“Predictive failure,” I note in my latest book, “Lost in a Gallup: Polling Failure in U.S. Presidential Elections,” clearly “has not killed off election polling.”
So what, then, accounts for its tenacity and resilience? Why are election polls still with us, despite periodic flubs, fiascoes and miscalls? Why, indeed, are many Americans so intrigued by election polling, especially during presidential campaigns?
Illusion of precision
The reasons are several, and not surprisingly tied to deep currents in American life. They embrace – but go well beyond – a simplistic explanation that people want to know what’s going to happen.
Patrick Caddell, the private pollster for President Jimmy Carter, spoke to that tendency years ago, saying, “Everyone follows polls because everything in American life is geared to the question of who’s going to win – whether it’s sports or politics or whatever. There’s a natural curiosity.”
More substantively, election polling projects the sense, or illusion, of precision, which holds considerable appeal in troubled times.
A hunger for certainty runs deep, especially in journalism, where reporters frequently encounter ambiguity and evasion. Since the mid-1970s, large news organizations such as The New York Times and CBS News have conducted or commissioned their own election polls. And reports of crude preelection polls have been found in American newspapers published as long ago as 1824.
These days, polls guide, drive and help fix news media narratives about presidential elections. They are critical to shaping conventional wisdom about the competitiveness of those races.
Public ignorant of polling flubs
But polls have an uneven record in modern presidential elections – which, paradoxically, has contributed to their resilience.
Americans are mostly oblivious to that record. They may be vaguely familiar with the “Dewey defeats Truman” debacle of 1948. And they may recall that election polls in 2016 veered off target in key Midwestern states, disrupting expectations that Hillary Clinton would win the presidency.
But other cases, such as the unforeseen landslide of 1952 or the close election that wasn’t in 1980, are not often recalled. So polling is at least somewhat shielded from reproach by unfamiliarity with its uneven performance record over time.
Of course, election polls are not always in error. They can redeem themselves, which is another value in American life.
Horse races to high wires
Analogies from the sporting world further help to explain polling’s tenacity.
Election polling, and its emphasis on who’s ahead and who’s sinking, long has been likened to a horse race – a metaphor not always agreeable to pollsters. Archibald Crossley, a pioneer of modern opinion research, revealed as much before the debacle of 1948, in a letter to his friend and rival pollster, George Gallup.
“I have a distinct impression,” Crossley wrote, “that polls are still thought of as horse-race predictions, and it seems to me that we might be able to do something jointly to prevent such a reputation.”
Crossley’s “distinct impression” endures. Polls, and the coverage of polls, still invite comparisons to the horse race.
A better analogy, perhaps, is that polling resembles a high-wire act. A presidential election plays out over many months, typically to growing attention and building anticipation. Whether pollsters will slip up and fail in their estimates inevitably becomes a bit of mild election drama itself.
When forecasts go awry, as they did in 2016, astonishment inevitably follows. For example, Nate Silver, the data journalist who founded the FiveThirtyEight.com polling-analysis and predictions site, said Donald Trump’s victory was, broadly speaking, “the most shocking political development of my lifetime.”
Many pollsters insist that election polls are snapshots, not prophesies. But they don’t much mind crowing when their final surveys come close to estimating the outcome.
An example of pollster braggadocio came a month after the 2016 presidential election, when Rasmussen Reports declared that it had said all along “it was a much closer race than most other pollsters predicted. We weren’t surprised Election Night … look who came in second out of 11 top pollsters who surveyed the four-way race.”
George Gallup did much the same in the early years of modern survey research, taking out self-congratultory advertisements in the Editor & Publisher trade journal to tout polling successes in presidential races in 1940 and 1944. “The Gallup Poll Sets a New Record for Election Accuracy!” one of those ads proclaimed.
[Get our most insightful politics and election stories. Sign up for The Conversation’s Politics Weekly.]
Which polls to follow?
The proliferation of surveys over the years – Nate Silver’s site provides ratings of dozens of pollsters – also allows a sort of team-sport approach to election polls: Savvy consumers can identify and follow preferred pollsters and mostly ignore the rest. Not that this is necessarily advisable, but it is an option allowed by the abundance of polls, many of which can be routinely tracked in the runup to elections at RealClearPolitics.com.
So, for example, supporters of Donald Trump may take heart from Rasmussen surveys, which have been far more favorable to the president during the 2020 campaign than, say, polls conducted for CNN.
Polling, fundamentally, is an imperfect attempt at providing insight and explanation. The desire for insight and explanation is, of course, never ending, so polls endure despite their flaws and failures. They surely will remain features of American life, no matter how next week’s election turns out.
This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.
Follow all of the Expert Voices issues and debates — and become part of the discussion — on Facebook and Twitter. The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the publisher. This version of the article was originally published on Live Science.