livescience--2020-08-19--Will the 2020 election be a 'fraudulent mess'? The science says no.

As the 2020 presidential election approaches , and the coronavirus continues to circulate throughout the United States , President Donald Trump has begun to decry mail-in voting , calling it a `` scam '' and predicting on Twitter that the election would be a `` fraudulent mess . ''
Scientific literature on mail-in voting shows it has very low rates of fraud , however — and Trump might want to consider that there 's no evidence he 'll be at a disadvantage if a high proportion of people mail in their votes .
Research on previous elections suggests that vote-by-mail @ @ @ @ @ @ @ bonus for either Democrats or Republicans .
The politicization around mail-in voting is based upon mistaken assumptions , said Adam Berinsky , a political scientist and director of the Political Experiments Research Lab at MIT .
Related : Why did the Democratic and Republican parties switch platforms ?
`` Democrats and Republicans assume it 's going to benefit Democrats , '' Berinsky told Live Science .
`` But political science research suggests this is n't the case . ''
Turning out the vote — by mail Vote-by-mail has been an option for Americans @ @ @ @ @ @ @ were able to vote absentee in their home state elections .
There is no firm differentiation between absentee voting and voting-by-mail , but Trump ( who has called absentee voting `` good '' ) seems to make the distinction between states that allow voters to request an absentee ballot ( all 50 , though some require a specific reason why the voter ca n't come to the polls in-person ) and states that run universal vote-by-mail elections ( Colorado , Hawaii , Oregon , Washington and Utah ) .
In universal vote-by-mail elections @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ballot without having to request one .
Typically , the polls in those states are also open for those who prefer to vote in-person .
In 2001 , Berinsky spearheaded a study in Oregon , the pioneer of mail-in voting in the United States .
Oregon held its first universal vote-by-mail primary election in 1995 , and its first mail-in general election in 1996 .
Using data from phone surveys of voters and state records of their past voting histories , Berinsky and his colleagues showed that voting by mail increased turnout by @ @ @ @ @ @ @ it did so not by luring new voters into the electorate .
Instead , it increased turnout over time mostly by encouraging previous voters to keep voting in later elections .
Related : The 6 strangest presidential elections in US history Thus , the researchers reported in the journal , there was no real difference in the demographics , or party preferences , of those who voted : Voting-by-mail tended to cement voting by older voters , the well-educated and those with a high interest in campaign activity , the same people who @ @ @ @ @ @ @ suggests these findings still hold .
Researchers from the Stanford University Institute for Economic Policy Research pulled data from 1996 to 2018 in California , Utah and Washington , all states that rolled out universal vote-by-mail elections county by county over time .
Studying these slow rollouts allowed the researchers to compare in-person voting and universal mail-in voting in the exact same state races , helping control for things like competitiveness of the race and what offices people were voting for , they reported June 23 in the journal Proceedings of the National @ @ @ @ @ @ @ say in one year , two counties both did not have universal vote-by-mail and both of them had the same statewide competitions they were voting in , '' said Daniel Thompson , a doctoral candidate in politics and political methodology at Stanford and one of the authors of the paper .
`` Then we see the next year [ that ] one of those counties adopted universal vote-by-mail , and another did n't .
They both now are still facing the same statewide ballot , so what was the change in turnout in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the other ? ''
This method showed an increase in turnout by 2 % and no change in the share of voters by partisan affiliation .
The findings are consistent with other research on universal mail-in voting , Thompson told Live Science , which typically shows a `` modest '' increase in turnout .
For instance , a study of Washington 's vote-by-mail elections published in in June 2013 found voter turnout increased by between 2 % and 4 % .
In contrast to the earlier Oregon study , though , this turnout @ @ @ @ @ @ @ began voting more often , instead of frequent voters getting an extra boost .
Thompson and his colleagues are working on preliminary research on vote-by-mail in Texas ' July primary runoff election , perhaps one of the first looks at how vote-by-mail works in the time of a .
In Texas , anyone over 65 can request an absentee ballot without an excuse , while those 64 or younger can only get one if they meet specific criteria .
By comparing voting rates of 65-year-olds and 64-year-olds , who are at similar COVID-19 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ look at the effect of a vote-by-mail option on turnout .
They found no difference in turnout for 64- and 65-year-olds compared with normal years .
The 65-year-olds shifted to vote-by-mail at much higher levels than usual , but the 64-year-olds headed to the polls in-person like usual , Thompson said .
Thus , vote-by-mail seemed to be a good pandemic option that people want to take advantage of , Thompson said , but not one that fundamentally shifts election results .
`` You can think of the effects of these policies in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ vote safely without dramatically changing the contours of the election , '' he said , while cautioning that people who vote in primary runoffs may not behave in exactly the same way as those who vote in general elections .
Voting by mail might seem prone to fraud , given that there are no poll workers to check identification .
But the evidence for voter fraud is slim .
Related : How hard is it to rig an election ?
There have been a few high-profile cases of mail-in vote fraud .
In @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Congressional seat in North Carolina was overturned after officials learned that Republican operatives had organized a scheme to collect empty mail-in ballots and fill them in for the Republican candidate .
According to the , election officials became suspicious when 61 % of mail-in ballots were marked for the Republican in a district in which 16 % of voters were registered as Republicans .
There was also a case of fraud involving mail-in ballots in May in Paterson , New Jersey , involving a city council race .
In that case , a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ with improperly collecting and delivering ballots .
Hundreds of mail-in ballots were also left uncounted in that election , according to .
However , the overall rate of mail-in voter fraud appears to be low .
The Heritage Foundation records 1,290 convicted cases or confirmed findings of voter fraud stretching back to the early 1980s .
Of these , only 208 involve improper use of an absentee ballot — the rest involve in-person voting .
of the Heritage database found that confirmed voter fraud was also limited in the states that offer universal @ @ @ @ @ @ @ voting and improper use of an absentee ballot , both of which would be easier under vote-by-mail .
Colorado had eight of these types of fraud via the mail-in system between 2005 and 2018 ( vote-by-mail was enacted in 2013 in the state ) .
Oregon had nine cases , and Washington seven .
Hawaii and Utah had none .
In total , all five states reported only 29 attempted fraudulent votes of any kind by mail .
Of course , these numbers included only fraud that was caught and confirmed .
Fortunately @ @ @ @ @ @ @ fraud is slipping under the radar , either , whether by mail or in-person , Thompson said .
In one study published in May 2020 in , researchers looked at double-voting , or cases where a person votes twice , and found that it was theoretically possible that at most , one in 4,000 of votes in the 2012 presidential election were double votes .
However , a `` significant portion , if not all '' of these double-votes were actually probably clerical errors , the authors wrote .
True double votes are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , they wrote .
`` When they actually go and investigate this directly by gathering data on social security numbers on these individuals , they find that almost all of these people that are accused of double voting are actually two different people with the same name and birthdate , '' Thompson said .
There have also been systematic attempts by both the George W. Bush and Trump administrations to ferret out voter fraud , Berinsky said .
Neither found any major incidents .
It 's not just that there is an absence @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is evidence of absence of voter fraud , '' he said .
That does n't mean that holding an election during a pandemic will be smooth or simple .
Compared with previous elections , this one might see a difference in who wants to vote by mail or vote in-person due to the coronavirus .
An Economist/YouGov poll released Aug. 7 found that Biden voters are more likely than Trump voters to want to vote by mail , with 59 % of Biden supporters saying they expect to vote by mail and 61 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to vote in person .
And a study undergoing final revisions before publication in a peer-reviewed journal finds that women are more likely than men to support easily-accessible absentee voting .
`` Our article suggests women are much more concerned about the spread of COVID , so that leads to differences , '' said Gabriel Sanchez , a political scientist at the University of New Mexico , and one of the authors of that research .
Related : Why COVID-19 kills some people and spares others Given the lack of a funding boost @ @ @ @ @ @ @ rapid switch to more mail-in voting for many states , the logistics of the 2020 election could be challenging , Sanchez said .
One major issue he and his team are studying is the accessibility of ballot drop-off boxes , particularly in rural areas and on or near tribal lands .
Ballot-drop boxes are concentrated in urban areas in New Mexico and Nevada , Sanchez told Live Science , meaning many rural residents have to drive long distances to turn in their ballots .
That 's difficult for those who do n't have @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on reservations , many of which have instituted checkpoints and curfews to slow the spread of coronavirus .
States also need to scramble to put procedures in place for allowing voters to track their ballot and ensure that it is received .
They 'll also need ways to `` cure '' ballots , or chase down voters whose mail-in ballots otherwise would n't be counted due to a mismatched signature or stray markings .
Sanchez and his team have found that New Mexico law appears to allow the U.S. Secretary of State leeway @ @ @ @ @ @ @ through the legal system , Sanchez said , and they alerted the state government to that opportunity .
`` We 're strongly in favor of more transparency , the curing process , providing voters with an opportunity to know that their vote was actually counted and challenging it if the state says it was not , '' Sanchez said .
`` Good policy would be to give voters an opportunity to rectify this . ''

As the 2020 presidential election approaches, and the coronavirus continues to circulate throughout the United States, President Donald Trump has begun to decry mail-in voting, calling it a "scam" and predicting on Twitter that the election would be a "fraudulent mess."
Scientific literature on mail-in voting shows it has very low rates of fraud, however — and Trump might want to consider that there's no evidence he'll be at a disadvantage if a high proportion of people mail in their votes. Research on previous elections suggests that vote-by-mail doesn't lead to a major turnout bonus for either Democrats or Republicans. The politicization around mail-in voting is based upon mistaken assumptions, said Adam Berinsky, a political scientist and director of the Political Experiments Research Lab at MIT.
Related: Why did the Democratic and Republican parties switch platforms?
"Democrats and Republicans assume it's going to benefit Democrats," Berinsky told Live Science. "But political science research suggests this isn't the case."
Turning out the vote — by mail
Vote-by-mail has been an option for Americans since the Civil War, when soldiers were able to vote absentee in their home state elections. There is no firm differentiation between absentee voting and voting-by-mail, but Trump (who has called absentee voting "good") seems to make the distinction between states that allow voters to request an absentee ballot (all 50, though some require a specific reason why the voter can't come to the polls in-person) and states that run universal vote-by-mail elections (Colorado, Hawaii, Oregon, Washington and Utah). In universal vote-by-mail elections, all registered voters are mailed a ballot without having to request one. Typically, the polls in those states are also open for those who prefer to vote in-person.
In 2001, Berinsky spearheaded a study in Oregon, the pioneer of mail-in voting in the United States. Oregon held its first universal vote-by-mail primary election in 1995, and its first mail-in general election in 1996. Using data from phone surveys of voters and state records of their past voting histories, Berinsky and his colleagues showed that voting by mail increased turnout by about 6% over time. But it did so not by luring new voters into the electorate. Instead, it increased turnout over time mostly by encouraging previous voters to keep voting in later elections.
Related: The 6 strangest presidential elections in US history
Thus, the researchers reported in the journal Public Opinion Quarterly , there was no real difference in the demographics, or party preferences, of those who voted: Voting-by-mail tended to cement voting by older voters, the well-educated and those with a high interest in campaign activity, the same people who usually vote anyway.
"Democrats and Republicans assume it's going to benefit Democrats. But political science research suggests this isn't the case." Adam Berinsky
More recent research suggests these findings still hold. Researchers from the Stanford University Institute for Economic Policy Research pulled data from 1996 to 2018 in California, Utah and Washington, all states that rolled out universal vote-by-mail elections county by county over time. Studying these slow rollouts allowed the researchers to compare in-person voting and universal mail-in voting in the exact same state races, helping control for things like competitiveness of the race and what offices people were voting for, they reported June 23 in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences .
"We can say in one year, two counties both did not have universal vote-by-mail and both of them had the same statewide competitions they were voting in," said Daniel Thompson, a doctoral candidate in politics and political methodology at Stanford and one of the authors of the paper. "Then we see the next year [that] one of those counties adopted universal vote-by-mail, and another didn't. They both now are still facing the same statewide ballot, so what was the change in turnout in the county that adopted universal vote-by-mail versus the other?"
This method showed an increase in turnout by 2% and no change in the share of voters by partisan affiliation. The findings are consistent with other research on universal mail-in voting, Thompson told Live Science, which typically shows a "modest" increase in turnout. For instance, a study of Washington's vote-by-mail elections published in Political Science Research and Methods in June 2013 found voter turnout increased by between 2% and 4%. In contrast to the earlier Oregon study, though, this turnout increase was due to lower-participating voters who began voting more often, instead of frequent voters getting an extra boost.
Thompson and his colleagues are working on preliminary research on vote-by-mail in Texas' July primary runoff election, perhaps one of the first looks at how vote-by-mail works in the time of a pandemic . In Texas, anyone over 65 can request an absentee ballot without an excuse, while those 64 or younger can only get one if they meet specific criteria. By comparing voting rates of 65-year-olds and 64-year-olds, who are at similar COVID-19 risk, Thompson and his team could look at the effect of a vote-by-mail option on turnout. They found no difference in turnout for 64- and 65-year-olds compared with normal years. The 65-year-olds shifted to vote-by-mail at much higher levels than usual, but the 64-year-olds headed to the polls in-person like usual, Thompson said. Thus, vote-by-mail seemed to be a good pandemic option that people want to take advantage of, Thompson said, but not one that fundamentally shifts election results.
"You can think of the effects of these policies in 2020 as giving people an opportunity to vote safely without dramatically changing the contours of the election," he said, while cautioning that people who vote in primary runoffs may not behave in exactly the same way as those who vote in general elections.
(Image credit: Shutterstock)
The question of fraud
Voting by mail might seem prone to fraud, given that there are no poll workers to check identification. But the evidence for voter fraud is slim.
Related: How hard is it to rig an election?
There have been a few high-profile cases of mail-in vote fraud. In 2019, an election result for a Congressional seat in North Carolina was overturned after officials learned that Republican operatives had organized a scheme to collect empty mail-in ballots and fill them in for the Republican candidate. According to the Heritage Foundation's voter fraud database , election officials became suspicious when 61% of mail-in ballots were marked for the Republican in a district in which 16% of voters were registered as Republicans.
There was also a case of fraud involving mail-in ballots in May in Paterson, New Jersey, involving a city council race. In that case, a councilman and two others have been charged with improperly collecting and delivering ballots. Hundreds of mail-in ballots were also left uncounted in that election, according to NJ.com .
However, the overall rate of mail-in voter fraud appears to be low. The Heritage Foundation records 1,290 convicted cases or confirmed findings of voter fraud stretching back to the early 1980s. Of these, only 208 involve improper use of an absentee ballot — the rest involve in-person voting. A Brookings Institution analysis of the Heritage database found that confirmed voter fraud was also limited in the states that offer universal vote-by-mail. The analysis looked at duplicate voting and improper use of an absentee ballot, both of which would be easier under vote-by-mail. Colorado had eight of these types of fraud via the mail-in system between 2005 and 2018 (vote-by-mail was enacted in 2013 in the state). Oregon had nine cases, and Washington seven. Hawaii and Utah had none. In total, all five states reported only 29 attempted fraudulent votes of any kind by mail.
Of course, these numbers included only fraud that was caught and confirmed. Fortunately, there is little evidence that widespread fraud is slipping under the radar, either, whether by mail or in-person, Thompson said. In one study published in May 2020 in American Political Science Review , researchers looked at double-voting, or cases where a person votes twice, and found that it was theoretically possible that at most, one in 4,000 of votes in the 2012 presidential election were double votes. However, a "significant portion, if not all" of these double-votes were actually probably clerical errors, the authors wrote. True double votes are not numerous enough to threaten election integrity, they wrote.
"When they actually go and investigate this directly by gathering data on social security numbers on these individuals, they find that almost all of these people that are accused of double voting are actually two different people with the same name and birthdate," Thompson said.
There have also been systematic attempts by both the George W. Bush and Trump administrations to ferret out voter fraud, Berinsky said. Neither found any major incidents.
It's not just that there is an absence of evidence for voter fraud; there is evidence of absence of voter fraud," he said.
That doesn't mean that holding an election during a pandemic will be smooth or simple. Compared with previous elections, this one might see a difference in who wants to vote by mail or vote in-person due to the coronavirus. An Economist/YouGov poll released Aug. 7 found that Biden voters are more likely than Trump voters to want to vote by mail, with 59% of Biden supporters saying they expect to vote by mail and 61% of Trump supporters saying they want to vote in person. And a study undergoing final revisions before publication in a peer-reviewed journal finds that women are more likely than men to support easily-accessible absentee voting.
"Our article suggests women are much more concerned about the spread of COVID, so that leads to differences," said Gabriel Sanchez, a political scientist at the University of New Mexico, and one of the authors of that research.
Related: Why COVID-19 kills some people and spares others
Given the lack of a funding boost for the U.S. Post Office and the rapid switch to more mail-in voting for many states, the logistics of the 2020 election could be challenging, Sanchez said. One major issue he and his team are studying is the accessibility of ballot drop-off boxes, particularly in rural areas and on or near tribal lands. Ballot-drop boxes are concentrated in urban areas in New Mexico and Nevada, Sanchez told Live Science, meaning many rural residents have to drive long distances to turn in their ballots. That's difficult for those who don't have cars and for tribal members who live on reservations, many of which have instituted checkpoints and curfews to slow the spread of coronavirus.
States also need to scramble to put procedures in place for allowing voters to track their ballot and ensure that it is received. They'll also need ways to "cure" ballots, or chase down voters whose mail-in ballots otherwise wouldn't be counted due to a mismatched signature or stray markings. Sanchez and his team have found that New Mexico law appears to allow the U.S. Secretary of State leeway to implement a curing system without going through the legal system, Sanchez said, and they alerted the state government to that opportunity.
"We're strongly in favor of more transparency, the curing process, providing voters with an opportunity to know that their vote was actually counted and challenging it if the state says it was not," Sanchez said. "Good policy would be to give voters an opportunity to rectify this."
Originally published on Live Science.


livescience--2020-08-19--How NASA is dealing with the 'dent' in Earth's magnetic field

is an enormous magnet , its iron-rich core creating a shield of that envelopes the planet —— well , almost .
A `` dent '' in this magnetic field known as the South Atlantic Anomaly allows charged particles from the sun to dip closer to the planet in an area over South America and the Southern Atlantic Ocean .
These particles , at the very least , can mess with instruments up in space .
So NASA scientists and other researchers have no choice but to adapt to this hiccup in the magnetic field , switching off satellite instruments that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ loss of some data on instruments aboard the International Space Station ( ISS ) .
They 're also keeping close tabs on the SAA , according to a new article from .
`` Even though the SAA is slow-moving , it is going through some change in morphology , so it 's also important that we keep observing it , '' Terry Sabaka , a geophysicist at Goddard in Maryland , said in the piece .
Earth 's magnetic field is the product of its iron-rich outer core , which creates the field @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
The field protects Earth 's atmosphere from being slowly stripped away by charged particles from the sun .
It also protects electronic equipment on Earth from this same bombardment .
Normally , particles from the sun are either deflected by the field or become trapped in two zones called the Van Allen Belts , which allow the particles no closer than about 400 miles ( 644 kilometers ) from Earth 's surface .
This provides plenty of room to protect the planet and its human-launched satellites .
The ISS , for example @ @ @ @ @ @ @ km ) above the Earth 's surface .
But the magnetic field is weakening , making some scientists think it might be about to reverse , swapping its north and south poles .
( Alternatively , it might go through a weak phase and then strengthen again , as has happened in the past . )
Ground zero for this weakening seems to be the South Atlantic Anomaly , an odd spot of particular weakness that stretches between South America and Africa .
The zone is changing , with recent research suggesting that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ two , separate low points .
Related : 7 ways Earth changes in the blink of an eye Already , satellites that pass through the SAA must do so with many sensitive instruments turned off , according to Goddard .
When the ISS passes through it , some of the space station 's instruments are vulnerable to `` blips '' caused by the greater exposure to solar particles .
The Global Ecosystem Dynamics Investigation ( GEDI ) mission , for example , experiences a power reset about once a month and loses a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to the SAA .
Luckily , `` these events cause no harm to GEDI , '' Bryan Blair , the mission 's deputy principal investigator and a lidar instrument scientist at Goddard , said in the agency 's article .
Goddard scientists and their colleagues around the globe are keeping tabs on the SAA , both to make sure their operations are protected from its effects and to try to understand how the anomaly will change in the future .
Using data from SAMPEX ( the Solar Anomalous and Magnetospheric Particle Explorer ) @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and collected data until 2012 , Goddard researchers learned that the SAA is drifting slightly westward , results published in the journal in 2016 .
The European Space Agency ( ESA ) launched a set of satellites known as in 2013 that provide detailed observations of the Earth 's magnetic field and changes in the SAA .
It was data from Swarm satellites that showed the development of two separate minimum-strength points in the SAA , hinting that the anomaly might split into two separate zones .
Analyzing this data allows satellite engineers @ @ @ @ @ @ @ amount of solar radiation that they 'll likely encounter once in orbit , according to Goddard .
Researchers are also combining the observational data with models of Earth 's core dynamics to try to predict what the anomaly will do next .
`` This is similar to how weather forecasts are produced , but we are working with much longer time scales , '' Andrew Tangborn , a mathematician in Goddard 's Planetary Geodynamics Laboratory , said in the Goddard article .
Meanwhile , researchers outside of NASA are working to understand the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ core and the features of the magnetic field it produces .
Researchers from the University of Liverpool in England recently reported that volcanic rocks made from lava that erupted long ago on the Atlantic island of Saint Helena show magnetic anomalies dating back to between 8 million and 11.5 million years ago , suggesting that this area of the South Atlantic Anomaly has been unstable for millions of years .

Earth is an enormous magnet, its iron-rich core creating a shield of magnetic field that envelopes the planet —— well, almost. A "dent" in this magnetic field known as the South Atlantic Anomaly allows charged particles from the sun to dip closer to the planet in an area over South America and the Southern Atlantic Ocean.
These particles, at the very least, can mess with instruments up in space. So NASA scientists and other researchers have no choice but to adapt to this hiccup in the magnetic field, switching off satellite instruments that pass through the SAA and accepting the loss of some data on instruments aboard the International Space Station (ISS). They're also keeping close tabs on the SAA, according to a new article from NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center .
Related: What if Earth's magnetic field disappeared?
"Even though the SAA is slow-moving, it is going through some change in morphology, so it's also important that we keep observing it," Terry Sabaka, a geophysicist at Goddard in Maryland, said in the piece.
The anomaly
Earth's magnetic field is the product of its iron-rich outer core, which creates the field as it swirls around the inner core. The field protects Earth's atmosphere from being slowly stripped away by charged particles from the sun . It also protects electronic equipment on Earth from this same bombardment.
Normally, particles from the sun are either deflected by the field or become trapped in two zones called the Van Allen Belts, which allow the particles no closer than about 400 miles (644 kilometers) from Earth's surface. This provides plenty of room to protect the planet and its human-launched satellites. The ISS, for example, orbits about 220 miles (350 km) above the Earth's surface.
But the magnetic field is weakening, making some scientists think it might be about to reverse , swapping its north and south poles. (Alternatively, it might go through a weak phase and then strengthen again, as has happened in the past.) Ground zero for this weakening seems to be the South Atlantic Anomaly, an odd spot of particular weakness that stretches between South America and Africa. The zone is changing, with recent research suggesting that it is developing not one, but two, separate low points .
Related: 7 ways Earth changes in the blink of an eye
Already, satellites that pass through the SAA must do so with many sensitive instruments turned off, according to Goddard. When the ISS passes through it, some of the space station's instruments are vulnerable to "blips" caused by the greater exposure to solar particles. The Global Ecosystem Dynamics Investigation (GEDI) mission, for example, experiences a power reset about once a month and loses a few hours of data each time thanks to the SAA.
Luckily, "these events cause no harm to GEDI," Bryan Blair, the mission's deputy principal investigator and a lidar instrument scientist at Goddard, said in the agency's article.
Tracking the changes
Goddard scientists and their colleagues around the globe are keeping tabs on the SAA, both to make sure their operations are protected from its effects and to try to understand how the anomaly will change in the future.
Using data from SAMPEX (the Solar Anomalous and Magnetospheric Particle Explorer), a satellite that launched in 1992 and collected data until 2012, Goddard researchers learned that the SAA is drifting slightly westward, results published in the journal Space Weather in 2016. The European Space Agency (ESA) launched a set of satellites known as Swarm in 2013 that provide detailed observations of the Earth's magnetic field and changes in the SAA. It was data from Swarm satellites that showed the development of two separate minimum-strength points in the SAA, hinting that the anomaly might split into two separate zones.
Analyzing this data allows satellite engineers to design their satellites to withstand the amount of solar radiation that they'll likely encounter once in orbit, according to Goddard. Researchers are also combining the observational data with models of Earth's core dynamics to try to predict what the anomaly will do next.
"This is similar to how weather forecasts are produced, but we are working with much longer time scales," Andrew Tangborn, a mathematician in Goddard's Planetary Geodynamics Laboratory, said in the Goddard article.
Meanwhile, researchers outside of NASA are working to understand the links between the movement of the outer core and the features of the magnetic field it produces. Researchers from the University of Liverpool in England recently reported that volcanic rocks made from lava that erupted long ago on the Atlantic island of Saint Helena show magnetic anomalies dating back to between 8 million and 11.5 million years ago , suggesting that this area of the South Atlantic Anomaly has been unstable for millions of years.
Originally published on Live Science.


livescience--2020-08-19--A car-sized asteroid made the closest Earth flyby a space rock has ever survived

A newly discovered car-sized asteroid just made the closest-known flyby to Earth without hitting our planet .
On Sunday ( Aug. 16 ) , the asteroid , initially labeled ZTF0DxQ and now formally known to astronomers as 2020 QG , swooped by Earth at a mere 1,830 miles ( 2,950 kilometers ) away .
That gives 2020 QG the title of closest asteroid flyby ever recorded that did n't end with the space rock 's demise .
It 's the closest known , non-impacting asteroid , NASA officials told Space.com Video : See asteroid 2020 QG 's orbit around the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ( images ) The flyby was n't expected and took many by surprise .
In fact , the Palomar Observatory did n't detect the zooming asteroid until about six hours after the object 's closest approach .
`` The asteroid approached undetected from the direction of the sun , '' Paul Chodas , the director of NASA 's Center for Near Earth Object Studies , told Business Insider .
`` We did n't see it coming . ''
`` Yesterday 's close approach is [ the ] closest on record , '' Chodas @ @ @ @ @ @ @ discount a few known asteroids that have actually impacted our planet . ''
The close flyby was also a fast one , as 2020 QG swooped near Earth at a blistering 27,600 mph ( 44,400 kph ) .
The object is about the size of a compact car , perhaps about 10 to 20 feet ( 3 to 6 meters ) in diameter .
According to the International Astronomical Union 's Minor Planet Center , 2020 QG flew over the Pacific Ocean , far east of Australia , during its close approach .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ , you can check out NASA 's Jet Propulsion Laboratory 's small-body database browser here .
Email Chelsea Gohd at cgohd @ space.com or follow her on Twitter @ chelsea_gohd .
Follow us on Twitter @ Spacedotcom and on Facebook .

A newly discovered car-sized asteroid just made the closest-known flyby to Earth without hitting our planet.
On Sunday (Aug. 16), the asteroid, initially labeled ZTF0DxQ and now formally known to astronomers as 2020 QG, swooped by Earth at a mere 1,830 miles (2,950 kilometers) away. That gives 2020 QG the title of closest asteroid flyby ever recorded that didn't end with the space rock's demise.
It's the closest known, non-impacting asteroid, NASA officials told Space.com
Video: See asteroid 2020 QG's orbit around the sun!
Related: Potentially dangerous asteroids (images)
The car-sized asteroid 2020 QG made the closest Earth flyby ever recorded on Aug. 16, 2020. (Image credit: NASA/JPL-Caltech)
The flyby wasn't expected and took many by surprise. In fact, the Palomar Observatory didn't detect the zooming asteroid until about six hours after the object's closest approach. "The asteroid approached undetected from the direction of the sun," Paul Chodas, the director of NASA's Center for Near Earth Object Studies, told Business Insider. "We didn't see it coming."
Related: Famous asteroid flybys and close calls (infographic)
"Yesterday's close approach is [the] closest on record," Chodas told Business Insider. "If you discount a few known asteroids that have actually impacted our planet."
The close flyby was also a fast one, as 2020 QG swooped near Earth at a blistering 27,600 mph (44,400 kph). The object is about the size of a compact car, perhaps about 10 to 20 feet (3 to 6 meters) in diameter.
According to the International Astronomical Union's Minor Planet Center, 2020 QG flew over the Pacific Ocean, far east of Australia, during its close approach. To explore the daredevil asteroid for yourself, you can check out NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory's small-body database browser here.
Email Chelsea Gohd at cgohd@space.com or follow her on Twitter @chelsea_gohd. Follow us on Twitter @Spacedotcom and on Facebook.


livescience--2020-08-19--Coronavirus outbreak: Live updates

Coronavirus outbreak: Live updates

Refresh
90-year-old woman in the UK receives first dose of Pfizer vaccine, FDA review confirms vaccine is safe and effective A 90-year-old woman (who will turn 91 next week) became the first in the world to be given Pfizer's coronavirus vaccine outside of clinical trials, according to the BBC. Margaret Keenan, who is originally from Northern Ireland, was given the vaccine at the University Hospital in Coventry, England. She received the first of 800,000 doses expected to be administered in the U.K. in the coming weeks, according to the BBC. "I feel so privileged to be the first person vaccinated against Covid-19," Keenan said, according to the BBC."It's the best early birthday present I could wish for because it means I can finally look forward to spending time with my family and friends in the new year after being on my own for most of the year." "My advice to anyone offered the vaccine is to take it. If I can have it at 90, then you can have it too," she added. Up to four million doses of Pfizer's vaccine is expected to be given to people in the U.K. by the end of the month. Meanwhile, a 53-page Food and Drug Administration (FDA) review published Tuesday (Dec. 8) confirmed that Pfizer's vaccine is safe and effective, according to The Washington Post.
Pfizer's COVID-19 vaccine starts to work just 10 days after 1st dose Pfizer's new COVID-19 vaccine starts to protect people from the novel coronavirus just 10 days after the first dose, according to new documents from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA). The documents were released on Tuesday (Dec. 8), two days before a meeting of the FDA's vaccine advisory panel, which will vote on whether to recommend authorization of the vaccine in the U.S, Live Science reported . The FDA analyzed data from Pfizer's phase 3 clinical trial, which included some 44,000 people in the United States, Brazil, Argentina, Germany and Turkey, about half of whom received the vaccine while the other half received a placebo. Both groups received two shots, 21 days apart. About 10 days after the first dose, there was a noticeable drop-off in new COVID-19 cases in the vaccine group compared with the placebo group, indicating that even one dose provides some protection, the report said. However, scientists don't know how long the protection from a single dose will last, so it will still be important for people to receive two shots, according to The New York Times . Overall, the vaccine was 52% effective after the first dose and 95% effective after the second dose, the report said.
People with significant allergies should avoid Pfizer vaccine, UK warns The U.K.'s Regulatory Agency is advising people with a history of "significant" allergic reactions to avoid Pfizer's coronavirus vaccine, after two National Health Service members developed severe allergic reactions to it on Tuesday (Dec. 8), Live Science reported. "As is common with new vaccines the MHRA (Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency) have advised on a precautionary basis that people with a significant history of allergic reactions do not receive this vaccination after two people with a history of significant allergic reactions responded adversely yesterday," Stephen Powis, the national medical director for England's National Health Service said in a statement on Wednesday (Dec. 9). Both workers have a history of severe allergies and carry adrenaline auto injectors (such as EpiPens) around with them, according to The Guardian. Shortly after receiving the vaccine, both NHS workers developed anaphylaxis-like symptoms, or severe allergic reactions, but have recovered after receiving treatment. The MHRA will investigate further and Pfizer and BioNTech will support their investigation, according to Reuters. "Allergic reaction occurs with quite a number of vaccines, and perhaps even more frequently with drugs. So it is not unexpected," Stephen Evans, a professor of pharmacoepidemiology at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine said in remarks to journalists published by Britain's Science Media Center. “What would be wise, as the MHRA have already advised, would be for anyone who has known severe allergic reaction such that they need to carry an EpiPen, to delay having a vaccination until the reason for the allergic reaction has been clarified," he said. For the general population this does not mean that they would need to be anxious about receiving the vaccination, he added. "One has to remember that even things like marmite [a quintessential British food spread] can cause unexpected severe allergic reactions.”
Canada approves Pfizer's COVID-19 vaccine Canada has authorized Pfizer's new COVID-19 vaccine, with the first doses expected to be administered there as early as next week. Health Canada, the country's health regulatory agency, said in a statement on Wednesday (Dec. 9) that it had determined that the vaccine "meets the Department's stringent safety, efficacy and quality requirements for use in Canada," according to CTV News . "We expect vaccines to arrive maybe as early as Monday [Dec. 14]. It takes time to prepare the vaccine," said Maj.-Gen. Dany Fortin, the top military general leading the vaccine rollout for the Public Health Agency of Canada, according to CTV News. The first doses could be administered by the middle of next week, he said. Canada is the third country in the world to authorize the Pfizer vaccine, following the United Kingdom and Bahrain. The country should receive up to 249,000 doses of the vaccine by the end of December, and has purchased 20 million doses total, with the option to purchase more, CTV News reported.
Daily COVID-19 death toll in the U.S. reaches record-high, surpassed 9/11 On Wednesday (Dec. 9), the U.S. recorded 3,124 new COVID-19 deaths, the highest daily death toll to date, according to CNN . In comparison, 2,977 people were killed in the 9/11 attacks. The U.S. has now recorded 280,488 deaths related to the virus, according to The COVID Tracking Project . A forecast from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention predicts that the total death toll can increase to between 332,000 and 362,000 by January 2, according to CNN. There are currently 106,671 people hospitalized with the virus in the U.S.; 20,903 of them are currently in the ICU and 7,621 are currently on a ventilator, according to the COVID Tracking Project. On Thursday (Dec. 10), the Vaccines and Related Biological Products Advisory Committee is set to meet to discuss an emergency use authorization for the Pfizer-BioNTech coronavirus vaccine.
FDA panel recommends authorization of Pfizer's COVID-19 vaccine A panel of experts for the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has recommended that the agency authorize Pfizer's new COVID-19 vaccine in the United States. On Thursday (Dec. 10), the panel voted 17 to 4 to recommend that the vaccine receive emergency use authorization (EUA) for people ages 16 and older, according to The New York Times . The FDA typically follows the advice of its panels, and so today's vote is an important step towards the vaccine's authorization. It is anticipated that the agency will officially authorize the vaccine on Saturday (Dec. 12), the Times reported. Several countries have already authorized Pfizer's vaccine, including Canada, the United Kingdom and Bahrain.
Vaccine approval could come this weekend, as U.S. continues to record high daily death tolls On Thursday (Dec. 10), the U.S. recorded another 2,902 COVID-19 deaths, a day after the country set a record of 3,253 deaths, according to Reuters . “Probably for the next 60 to 90 days, we’re going to have more deaths per day than we had on 9/11 or we had at Pearl Harbor,” Dr. Robert Redfield, the director of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, told the Council on Foreign Relations on Thursday, according to Reuters. "The reality is the vaccine approval this week is not going to really impact that, I think, to any degree for the next 60 days." On Thursday, the Vaccines and Related Biological Products Advisory Committee discussed, voted and recommended that the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) should grant an emergency use authorization for Pfizer's coronavirus vaccine. The Pfizer vaccine has already been approved in the U.K. and in Canada, and FDA approval for use in the U.S. could come this weekend.
Australia abandons local COVID-19 vaccine after it caused false-positive HIV tests An Australian COVID-19 vaccine that had shown promising results in early trials is being abandoned after researchers found that the shot caused false-positive results on HIV tests. On Friday (Dec. 11), Australian officials said they had canceled an order for some 51 million doses of the vaccine, which was being developed by The University of Queensland and CSL Ltd., a local biotech company, according to The New York Times . In an early trial with 216 participants, the vaccine appeared to be safe and to produce a robust immune response against COVID-19, according to a statement from CSL . But some volunteers falsely tested positive for HIV, which officials feared would undermine trust in the vaccine, the Times reported. The vaccine contained small fragments of an HIV protein, which helped stabilize the vaccine. Some of the participants developed antibodies against these fragments, and these antibodies triggered false positive results on some HIV tests. It's important to note that there is no way for the vaccine to cause an HIV infection, because it contains harmless fragments of the virus.
ICU nurse in New York becomes first person in the US to receive a coronavirus vaccine outside of clinical trials New York, the worst-hit state at the start of the pandemic, just became the first to administer a coronavirus vaccine outside of clinical trials, kicking off a long, massive effort to vaccinate the American people, Live Science reported. Around 9 a.m. E.T. on Monday (Dec. 14), the very first dose of Pfizer and BioNTech's coronavirus vaccine was given to Sandra Lindsay, an intensive care nurse in Long Island Jewish Medical Center in Queens, New York, according to The New York Times. This comes as the U.S. continues to battle a massive wave of the virus that has more than 109,000 people currently hospitalized, according to The COVID Tracking Project. Since the start of the pandemic, New York has recorded more than 780,000 cases of COVID-19 and more than 35,100 deaths, according to The Times. "This vaccine is exciting because I believe this is the weapon that will end the war," Gov. Andrew Cuomo said during a live broadcast of the first vaccination. "It's the beginning of the last chapter of the book, but now we just have to do it."
FDA analysis confirms Moderna's vaccine is safe and effective, emergency authorization is likely to come Friday A new briefing document from the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) released on Tuesday (Dec. 15) confirmed that Moderna's COVID-19 vaccine is safe and effective, according to NPR . Moderna's COVID-19 vaccine is 94% effective and has "a favorable safety profile," according to the document. A panel of experts is set to meet on Thursday (Dec. 17) to discuss the effectiveness and safety of the vaccine and vote on whether or not the FDA should grant emergency approval to the vaccine. Last week, the same panel voted that the FDA should grant emergency approval to Pfizer's coronavirus vaccine; the authorization came a day late and the first doses were given on Monday (Dec. 15). The FDA will likely approve Moderna's vaccine for emergency use on Friday (Dec. 18), according to The New York Times .
FDA authorizes first over-the-counter COVID-19 test The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has authorized the first over-the-counter COVID-19 test, which can be done at home and does not need a prescription. The test, made by the Australia-based company Ellume, provides results in as little as 20 minutes, according to a statement from the FDA . It is a "lateral flow antigen test," meaning it works in a similar way to a home pregnancy test, by running a "liquid sample along a surface with reactive molecules," the FDA said. The test works in conjunction with a smartphone app. Users take a nasal swab and place their sample in an analyzer, which communicates to the smartphone app via Bluetooth. The results are delivered through the app, and also reported to public health authorities (based on a user's zip code) through a secure cloud connection, the company said . Ellume is ramping up production of its test, and expects to produce three million tests in January 2021, and 20 million within the first half of 2021.
A wild mink tested positive for the coronavirus, it may be the first wild animal to have a confirmed case A wild mink in Utah may be the first "free-ranging, native wild animal" confirmed to be infected with SARS-CoV-2, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), Live Science reported. The mink was found near a mink farm and likely picked up the infection from the farmed mink. There's no evidence that the virus spread to other minks or wild animals; but if the virus does begin circulating in wild animals, it could pick up mutations that COVID-19 vaccines may not protect well against if it spreads back to humans, according to the report. "If it does [establish a reservoir], then we've got a long-term issue here, where this virus has the potential to be with us for millennia," Sarah Olson, associate director of the health program at the Wildlife Conservation Society, told Vox. The U.S. Department of Agriculture's Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service has screened other animal species for the virus near mink farms in Utah, Michigan and Wisconsin, but all of them have tested negative so far, according to a statement.
An FDA advisory panel will meet today to vote on whether to recommend Moderna's coronavirus vaccine for emergency approval On Thursday (Dec. 17), a Food and Drug Administration (FDA) advisory committee will meet to determine whether to recommend that Moderna’s coronavirus vaccine for emergency approval, according to The New York Times . This panel, composed of independent experts, will vote on whether to recommend the vaccine after hearing from the company, FDA scientists and the public, according to The Times. Last week, the same panel of experts met to discuss Pfizer’s coronavirus vaccine and voted to recommend emergency authorization; the authorization came the next day. There have now been more than 16.9 million cases of COVID-19 in the U.S. and more than 307,000 deaths, according to the Johns Hopkins dashboard . There are currently 113,090 people hospitalized across the country with more than 21,900 of them in the ICU and 7,778 on a ventilator, according to The COVID Tracking Project .
California becomes new epicenter of COVID-19 in U.S. California, once praised for its early pandemic response, is now the new U.S. hotspot for COVID-19 infections. The state has reported an alarming surge in cases, breaking previous records for daily cases. On Thursday (Dec. 17), the state reported some 50,000 COVID-19 infections in 24 hours, and nearly 100,000 in 48 hours, according to The Washington Post . That's more than the daily cases reported in many countries, including India, Germany and Britain, the Post reported. The state also set a record for daily deaths on Thursday, with 379 fatalities reported, up from the previous high of 293. Capacity in intensive care units has also dropped dramatically, with hospitals in Southern California reporting zero percent capacity on Thursday. "I want to be very clear: Our hospitals are under siege, and our model shows no end in sight," said Christina Ghaly, director of Los Angeles County's Department of Health Services, the Post reported.
FDA expected to authorize Moderna's vaccine on Friday The U.S. Food and Drug Administration is expected to authorize Moderna's COVID-19 vaccine on Friday (Dec. 18). Once authorized, it will be the second coronavirus vaccine to get the green light from the agency in just a week, with Pfizer's vaccine gaining authorization on Dec. 11. Moderna is expected to begin shipping 5.9 million doses of its vaccine on Sunday (Dec. 20), with the first deliveries arriving Monday (Dec. 21), according to The New York Times . Unlike the Pfizer vaccine, Moderna's vaccine does not require storage in extremely cold temperatures, and states are hoping to distribute the vaccine to rural hospitals and community health centers, the Times reported.
COVID-19 cases continue to surge across the U.S. There have now been more than 17 million cases of COVID-19 in the U.S. and more than 300,000 deaths, according to The COVID Tracking Project . There are currently 114,237 people hospitalized across the country and 21,900 people in the ICU. California is facing a massive surge in cases; the state reported 41,012 new COVID-19 cases and 300 new deaths on Thursday (Dec. 17), according to the state's COVID-19 dashboard . By comparison, at the start of November, California was reporting a seven-day average of 4,183 cases, compared to an average of 38,774 on Thursday, according to CNN . "We're experiencing an explosive and very deadly surge," Dr. Barbara Ferrer, Los Angeles County Public Health Director said, according to CNN. Intensive care unit beds are rapidly filling up across the state; there are only 1,234 ICU beds left available in California, according to the dashboard. Current closures across California are impacting around 98% of the state's population, according to CNN.
London and southeast England are under an emergency lockdown Following concerns of a new version of the coronavirus that might be more transmissible, London and most of southeast England are now under an emergency lockdown, according to The New York Times . Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced the lockdown on Saturday (Dec. 19) citing concerns that the mutated virus — which was detected a couple of weeks ago in southeast England — may be as much as 70% more transmissible than previous versions, according to the Times. The new version of the coronavirus is detected in more than 60% of new infections in London and have also been detected in several other countries, according to the Times. But it's not yet clear if this coronavirus version is any more infectious than the last and thorough analyses will need to be conducted before conclusions are made, scientists cautioned. In South Africa, a similar version of the virus has been found in up to 90% of new cases detected since mid-November, according to The Times . It's common for viruses to mutate, and this particular coronavirus has mutated many times since the start of the pandemic. But experts told The Times that it would take years for the virus to mutate enough such that it would make the current vaccines developed to fight COVID-19 ineffective.
Biden gets Pfizer's COVID-19 vaccine President-elect Joe Biden received a dose of Pfizer's new COVID-19 vaccine on Monday (Dec. 21), according to The New York Times . He received the shot on camera at the Christiana Hospital in Newark, Delaware. "I'm doing this to demonstrate that people should be prepared when it's available to take the vaccine. There's nothing to worry about," Biden said.
Antarctica has its 1st COVID-19 outbreak The first COVID-19 cases have been reported in Antarctica , meaning the disease has now spread to every continent in the world. On Tuesday (Dec. 22), Chilean officials reported an outbreak of 36 COVID-19 cases at the Chilean research base General Bernardo O'Higgins Riquelme on the Antarctic Peninsula, according to the BBC . Of these, 26 cases were military personnel and 10 were maintenance workers, the BBC reported. All of these cases have been evacuated from Antarctica to Punta Arenas, Chile, according to The Guardian . Antarctica had been COVID-19 free up until the current outbreak. The continent has no permanent residents, but about 1,000 people, including scientists and other workers, stayed there this past winter, The Guardian reported.
Live updates will continue in 2021!


livescience--2020-08-19--Ancient stone 'breadcrumbs' reveal early human migration out of Africa

About 130,000 years ago , an early wave of anatomically modern humans — Homo sapiens — left the Horn of Africa and spread north along the center of the Arabian Peninsula , which was wetter and greener than it is now .
Their distinctive way of making flint points has been used as a `` breadcrumb '' trail to mark their progress .
Now , scientists may have found the northernmost of these breadcrumbs in Israel 's Negev Desert .
Archaeologists from the Israel Antiquities Authority ( IAA ) report they unearthed the distinctive flints , made with a technique @ @ @ @ @ @ @ `` flint-knapping '' site near the city of Dimona , where a photovoltaic solar power plant will be built.The flints , which are thought to date back about 100,000 years , could be further evidence of the spread of Homo sapiens along the central Arabian route from Africa , said IAA archaeologist Maya Oron , who is also studying the Negev as a doctoral student at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem .
The site is rich in raw flint and is clearly where the ancient tools were manufactured , she said ; if @ @ @ @ @ @ @ may be a new breadcrumb along the trail of early modern humans into the northern regions of the Levant .
Some pieces of flint made with the same technique have been found in the Negev before , but those were found on the desert surface and their dating is uncertain ; this is the first discovery of so many Nubian Levallois flints in a buried and datable archaeological layer , she said .
`` We have hundreds of items of flint , '' Oron told Live Science .
`` We 've mapped them @ @ @ @ @ @ @ we do the other work we can see what lay near what . ''
Nubian Levallois technology is a refinement of an earlier flint technology , now called `` classic '' Levallois , which is named after the Levallois-Perret suburb of Paris where it was found in the 19th century .
Both methods allowed people to make several points out of a single lump of flint , by repeatedly knapping it — striking it with a harder stone , so that it fractures in specific ways — while the flake forming the point @ @ @ @ @ @ @ had a distinctive curved shape , called a `` tortoise . ''
In the Nubian Levallois technique , however , the resulting and the core had a distinctive pointed shape , like the beak of a bird .
It is named after Nubia , the region on the border of modern and Sudan where scientists think early modern humans used the technique about 130,000 years ago .
Both early modern humans and are thought to have used the Classic Levallois process .
But many researchers think Nubian Levallois required greater planning skills to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ it to spread ; as such , it could be a hallmark of Homo sapiens .
Some early modern humans are known to have first left Africa perhaps up to 270,000 years ago , but the routes they took and just when they took them is fiercely debated by scientists .
In any case , the spread of early modern humans through the center of the Arabian Peninsula about 100,000 years ago — perhaps over a land-bridge where the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait is now located — was probably not the last Homo sapiens migration @ @ @ @ @ @ @ now thought to have died out , while a later Homo sapiens migration left the continent and entered what is now Israel about 60,000 years ago , perhaps along the northern coast of the Sinai Peninsula .
It 's this later migration of modern humans that is thought to have populated the rest of Asia , Oceania , Europe and the Americas .
Meanwhile , there is evidence that some Neanderthals from Europe lived in the region that now includes Israel about 100,000 years ago , Oron said .
`` There is a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ these two species in our area , because it happens much earlier than in Europe , '' she said .
Related : See photos of our closest human ancestor The new Nubian Levallois flints add a further clue that could help explain the early spread of Homo sapiens in the region , and perhaps reveal more about their interactions with the Neanderthals who also lived there around that time : `` It 's like a jigsaw puzzle that we do n't have all the pieces , but this is another piece in it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ her colleagues have yet to publish their research in a peer-reviewed journal , but they hope to do so in about a year after they 've completed of the artifacts .
Rémy Crassard , a prehistorian at the National Scientific Research Centre in France ( CNRS ) who has researched Nubian Levallois technology in the Arabian Peninsula , is keen to see the scientific publication of the finds .
`` This new discovery in the Negev could definitely add crucial information to our understanding of human dispersals out of Africa , '' he @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Nubian Levallois flints , he said .
`` We still do n't know the origins of this technology , if it has been re-invented through time and space without connections , or if it is a real marker of African dispersals of Homo sapiens , '' Crassard told Live Science .
`` More dated sites are needed both in Africa and in Arabia , as well as cautious comparative studies in material culture . ''

One of the distinctive stone tools, made with an ancient flint-knapping technology known as Nubian Levallois, found at the archaeological site in the Negev Desert.
About 130,000 years ago, an early wave of anatomically modern humans — Homo sapiens — left the Horn of Africa and spread north along the center of the Arabian Peninsula, which was wetter and greener than it is now. Their distinctive way of making flint points has been used as a "breadcrumb" trail to mark their progress. Now, scientists may have found the northernmost of these breadcrumbs in Israel's Negev Desert.
Archaeologists from the Israel Antiquities Authority (IAA) report they unearthed the distinctive flints, made with a technique called Nubian Levallois, at an ancient "flint-knapping" site near the city of Dimona, where a photovoltaic solar power plant will be built.The flints, which are thought to date back about 100,000 years, could be further evidence of the spread of Homo sapiens along the central Arabian route from Africa, said IAA archaeologist Maya Oron, who is also studying the Negev as a doctoral student at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem.
Related: Stark beauty: See images of Israel's Negev Desert
The site is rich in raw flint and is clearly where the ancient tools were manufactured, she said; if its age is confirmed, the finds may be a new breadcrumb along the trail of early modern humans into the northern regions of the Levant.
Some pieces of flint made with the same technique have been found in the Negev before, but those were found on the desert surface and their dating is uncertain; this is the first discovery of so many Nubian Levallois flints in a buried and datable archaeological layer, she said.
"We have hundreds of items of flint," Oron told Live Science. "We've mapped them in three coordinates, so that after we do the other work we can see what lay near what."
The finds were unearthed in southern Israel's Negev Desert, at a site being excavated by government archaeologists ahead of the construction of a solar power plant. (Image credit: Emil Eladjem/Israel Antiquities Authority)
Ancient technology
Nubian Levallois technology is a refinement of an earlier flint technology, now called "classic" Levallois, which is named after the Levallois-Perret suburb of Paris where it was found in the 19th century.
Both methods allowed people to make several points out of a single lump of flint, by repeatedly knapping it — striking it with a harder stone, so that it fractures in specific ways — while the flake forming the point was still attached. The resulting core had a distinctive curved shape, called a "tortoise."
Related: Photos: Mysterious human ancestor wielded oldest stone tools
In the Nubian Levallois technique, however, the resulting points were sharper and the core had a distinctive pointed shape, like the beak of a bird. It is named after Nubia, the region on the border of modern Egypt and Sudan where scientists think early modern humans used the technique about 130,000 years ago.
Both early modern humans and Neanderthals are thought to have used the Classic Levallois process. But many researchers think Nubian Levallois required greater planning skills to figure out and greater language skills for it to spread; as such, it could be a hallmark of Homo sapiens.
The site is the northernmost point where Nubian Levallois flint tools have been found in a datable archaeological layer, which is thought to be about 100,000 years old. (Image credit: Emil Eladjem/Israel Antiquities Authority)
Out of Africa
Some early modern humans are known to have first left Africa perhaps up to 270,000 years ago, but the routes they took and just when they took them is fiercely debated by scientists.
In any case, the spread of early modern humans through the center of the Arabian Peninsula about 100,000 years ago — perhaps over a land-bridge where the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait is now located — was probably not the last Homo sapiens migration out of Africa.
This wave is now thought to have died out, while a later Homo sapiens migration left the continent and entered what is now Israel about 60,000 years ago, perhaps along the northern coast of the Sinai Peninsula. It's this later migration of modern humans that is thought to have populated the rest of Asia, Oceania, Europe and the Americas.
The ancient technology used for making Nubian Levallois flints is thought to be a hallmark of early modern humans and could chart their progress from Africa through the Arabian Peninsula. (Image credit: Emil Eladjem/Israel Antiquities Authority)
Meanwhile, there is evidence that some Neanderthals from Europe lived in the region that now includes Israel about 100,000 years ago, Oron said.
"There is a lot of debate about the interaction between these two species in our area, because it happens much earlier than in Europe," she said.
Related: See photos of our closest human ancestor
The new Nubian Levallois flints add a further clue that could help explain the early spread of Homo sapiens in the region, and perhaps reveal more about their interactions with the Neanderthals who also lived there around that time: "It's like a jigsaw puzzle that we don't have all the pieces, but this is another piece in it," she said.
Oron and her colleagues have yet to publish their research in a peer-reviewed journal, but they hope to do so in about a year after they've completed radiocarbon dating of the artifacts.
Rémy Crassard, a prehistorian at the National Scientific Research Centre in France (CNRS) who has researched Nubian Levallois technology in the Arabian Peninsula, is keen to see the scientific publication of the finds. "This new discovery in the Negev could definitely add crucial information to our understanding of human dispersals out of Africa," he said.
Scientists debate the implications of Nubian Levallois flints, he said.
"We still don't know the origins of this technology, if it has been re-invented through time and space without connections, or if it is a real marker of African dispersals of Homo sapiens," Crassard told Live Science. "More dated sites are needed both in Africa and in Arabia, as well as cautious comparative studies in material culture."
Originally published on Live Science.


livescience--2020-08-19--Interstellar visitor 'Oumuamua could still be alien technology, new study hints

'Oumuamua — a mysterious , interstellar object that crashed through our solar system two years ago — might in fact be alien technology .
That ’ s because an alternative , non-alien explanation might be fatally flawed , as a new study argues .
But most scientists think the idea that we spotted alien technology in our solar system is a long shot .
In 2018 , our ran into an object lost in interstellar space .
The object , dubbed 'Oumuamua , seemed to be long and thin — cigar-shaped — and tumbling end over end .
Then , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ as if something were pushing on it .
Scientists still are n't sure why .
One explanation ?
The object was propelled by an alien machine , such as a lightsail — a wide , millimeter-thin machine that accelerates as it 's pushed by solar radiation .
The main proponent of this argument was Avi Loeb , a Harvard University astrophysicist .
Most scientists , however , think 'Oumuamua 's wonky acceleration was likely due to a natural phenomenon .
In June , a research team proposed that solid was blasting and causing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in a new paper published Monday ( Aug. 17 ) in , Loeb and Thiem Hoang , an astrophysicist at the Korea Astronomy and Space Science Institute , argue that the hydrogen hypothesis could n't work in the real world — which would mean that there is still hope that our neck of space was once visited by advanced aliens — and that we actually spotted their presence at the time .
Here 's the problem with 'Oumuamua : It moved like a comet , but did n't have the classic coma , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ said astrophysicist Darryl Seligman , an author of the solid hydrogen hypothesis , who is starting a postdoctoral fellowship in astrophysics at the University of Chicago .
'Oumuamua was the first object ever seen flying into our solar system and back out again .
That 's opposed to most solar system objects that turn circles around the sun , never leaving the celestial neighborhood .
Its journey and the fact that it was accelerating suggested 'Oumuamua , which is estimated to be about 1,300 to 2,600 feet ( 400 to 800 meters ) @ @ @ @ @ @ @ yet , `` there was no 'coma ' or outgassing detected coming from the object , '' Seligman said .
Normally , comets come from regions more distant from the sun than asteroids , and ice on their surface turns straight into gas as they approach the sun , leaving behind a trail of gas , or what we see as a beautiful comet tail , Seligman said .
That outgassing changes how the comet moves through space , he said .
It 's a bit like a very slow rocket engine : @ @ @ @ @ @ @ warmest part of the comet bursts with gas , and that gas flowing away from the comet sends it tumbling faster and faster away from the sun .
In a paper published June 9 in , Seligman and Yale astrophysicist Gregory Laughlin proposed that the object was a comet made up partly or entirely of molecular hydrogen — lightweight molecules composed of two hydrogen atoms ( H2 ) .
H2 gas freezes into a puffy , low-density solid only when it 's very cold — minus 434.45 degrees Fahrenheit ( minus 259.14 degrees @ @ @ @ @ @ @ absolute zero ) in Earth 's atmosphere .
Researchers had already proposed the existence of `` hydrogen icebergs '' out in the very cold reaches of space , Laughlin and Seligman wrote in the study .
And outgassing hydrogen would n't be visible from Earth — meaning it would n't leave behind a visible comet tail .
The numbers worked out neatly ; while a few other substances ( like solid ) could potentially explain the coma-free acceleration , hydrogen was the best match for the data .
Related : The 12 strangest @ @ @ @ @ @ @ new paper , Hoang and Loeb respond to this idea and argue that the hydrogen iceberg explanation has a basic problem : Comets form when icy grains of dust bump into each other in space and form clumps , and then those clumps attract more dust and other clumps .
And comets are like snowmen : they survive only as long as they do n't melt .
The stickiness that helps form comets is similar to the stickiness of ice cubes coming straight out of a cold freezer .
Leave an ice cube @ @ @ @ @ @ @ two , let its surface warm up a bit , and it wo n't feel sticky anymore .
A thin film of liquid water on its surface makes it slippery .
Hoang and Loeb argued that even starlight in the coldest parts of space would warm up small chunks of solid hydrogen before they could clump together and form a comet of 'Oumuamua 's large scale .
And more importantly , the trek from the nearest `` giant molecular cloud '' — a dusty , gassy region of space where hydrogen icebergs are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ long .
A hydrogen iceberg travelling hundreds of millions of years through interstellar space would have fallen apart , cooked by starlight .
Seligman said that Loeb 's analysis was correct that no hydrogen comet would survive such a long trip .
`` Hydrogen icebergs do n't live that long in the galaxy.
, '' he said .
`` And you definitely do n't have time to get all the way from [ the nearest ] giant molecular cloud . ''
The theory only works if 'Oumuamua is just 40 million years old @ @ @ @ @ @ @ frame , outgassing could have molded the comet 's oblong shape without destroying it entirely .
He pointed to a paper published in April in The Astronomical Journal , which proposed a number of nearby origin points for 'Oumuamua .
The paper 's authors did n't nail down the comet 's home entirely , which would be impossible , they said .
'Oumuamua was hardly moving when it arrived in our sun 's gravity well , which makes tracking the comet through space tricky .
But the researchers looked at what else passed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ sun is now passing through in recent cosmic history .
They landed on two groups of young stars , the Carina and Columba moving groups , said Tim Hallatt , a graduate student and astrophysicist at McGill University in Montreal , and lead author of the paper published in April .
Related : 7 things most often mistaken for UFOs They all formed around 30 million to 45 million years ago in a cloud of gas that then dispersed .
That small , dissipated cloud of molecular gas , with just a few @ @ @ @ @ @ @ icebergs might form , Hallatt said '' There are many processes that can eject 'Oumuamua-type objects from young stars in moving groups — like gravitational nudges between stars in the group , planet formation , or as Seligman and Laughlin 2020 argue , the molecular clouds that create the stars in the first place , '' Hallatt told Live Science .
All three papers fit neatly together if you assume 'Oumuamua was a hydrogen iceberg that originated in Carina or Columba , Hallatt added .
`` Seligman & Laughlin 's idea could work @ @ @ @ @ @ @ short lifetime in the galaxy ( as Loeb correctly concludes ) , and an origin in Carina or Columba would make it young enough to survive its journey , '' he said .
`` Shortening the distance that that H2 iceberg needs to travel does not solve the problems we outline in our paper , because the H2 iceberg would have formed when its parent planetary system formed , billions of years ago , ” and in those eons , the iceberg would have evaporated , he told Live Science in an email @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are expected to come from giant molecular clouds , not parts of space like Carina or Columba .
And he reiterated that no hydrogen iceberg could survive the trek from the nearest giant molecular cloud .
Asked if there is a clear leading candidate explanation for 'Oumuamua 's acceleration , Loeb referred Live Science to a not-yet-released book he authored called `` Extraterrestrial : The First Sign of Intelligent Life Beyond Earth , '' due for publication in January .

'Oumuamua — a mysterious, interstellar object that crashed through our solar system two years ago — might in fact be alien technology. That’s because an alternative, non-alien explanation might be fatally flawed, as a new study argues.
But most scientists think the idea that we spotted alien technology in our solar system is a long shot.
In 2018, our solar system ran into an object lost in interstellar space. The object, dubbed 'Oumuamua, seemed to be long and thin — cigar-shaped — and tumbling end over end. Then, close observations showed it was accelerating, as if something were pushing on it. Scientists still aren't sure why.
One explanation? The object was propelled by an alien machine, such as a lightsail — a wide, millimeter-thin machine that accelerates as it's pushed by solar radiation. The main proponent of this argument was Avi Loeb, a Harvard University astrophysicist.
Most scientists, however, think 'Oumuamua's wonky acceleration was likely due to a natural phenomenon. In June, a research team proposed that solid hydrogen was blasting invisibly off the interstellar object's surface and causing it to speed up.
Now, in a new paper published Monday (Aug. 17) in The Astrophysical Journal Letters , Loeb and Thiem Hoang, an astrophysicist at the Korea Astronomy and Space Science Institute, argue that the hydrogen hypothesis couldn't work in the real world — which would mean that there is still hope that our neck of space was once visited by advanced aliens — and that we actually spotted their presence at the time.
Related: 'Oumuamua: Our 1st interstellar visitor explained in photos
Here's the problem with 'Oumuamua: It moved like a comet, but didn't have the classic coma, or tail, of a comet, said astrophysicist Darryl Seligman, an author of the solid hydrogen hypothesis, who is starting a postdoctoral fellowship in astrophysics at the University of Chicago.
'Oumuamua was the first object ever seen flying into our solar system and back out again. That's opposed to most solar system objects that turn circles around the sun, never leaving the celestial neighborhood. Its journey and the fact that it was accelerating suggested 'Oumuamua, which is estimated to be about 1,300 to 2,600 feet (400 to 800 meters) long, was a comet. And yet, "there was no 'coma' or outgassing detected coming from the object," Seligman said. Normally, comets come from regions more distant from the sun than asteroids, and ice on their surface turns straight into gas as they approach the sun, leaving behind a trail of gas, or what we see as a beautiful comet tail, Seligman said.
That outgassing changes how the comet moves through space, he said. It's a bit like a very slow rocket engine: The sun strikes the comet, the warmest part of the comet bursts with gas, and that gas flowing away from the comet sends it tumbling faster and faster away from the sun.
In a paper published June 9 in The Astrophysical Journal Letters , Seligman and Yale astrophysicist Gregory Laughlin proposed that the object was a comet made up partly or entirely of molecular hydrogen — lightweight molecules composed of two hydrogen atoms (H2).
H2 gas freezes into a puffy, low-density solid only when it's very cold — minus 434.45 degrees Fahrenheit (minus 259.14 degrees Celsius, or just 14.01 degrees above absolute zero) in Earth's atmosphere. Researchers had already proposed the existence of "hydrogen icebergs" out in the very cold reaches of space, Laughlin and Seligman wrote in the study. And outgassing hydrogen wouldn't be visible from Earth — meaning it wouldn't leave behind a visible comet tail.
The numbers worked out neatly; while a few other substances (like solid neon ) could potentially explain the coma-free acceleration, hydrogen was the best match for the data.
Related: The 12 strangest objects in the universe
But in their new paper, Hoang and Loeb respond to this idea and argue that the hydrogen iceberg explanation has a basic problem: Comets form when icy grains of dust bump into each other in space and form clumps, and then those clumps attract more dust and other clumps. And comets are like snowmen: they survive only as long as they don't melt.
The stickiness that helps form comets is similar to the stickiness of ice cubes coming straight out of a cold freezer. Leave an ice cube on the counter for a minute or two, let its surface warm up a bit, and it won't feel sticky anymore. A thin film of liquid water on its surface makes it slippery.
Hoang and Loeb argued that even starlight in the coldest parts of space would warm up small chunks of solid hydrogen before they could clump together and form a comet of 'Oumuamua's large scale. And more importantly, the trek from the nearest "giant molecular cloud" — a dusty, gassy region of space where hydrogen icebergs are thought to form — is far too long. A hydrogen iceberg travelling hundreds of millions of years through interstellar space would have fallen apart, cooked by starlight.
Seligman said that Loeb's analysis was correct that no hydrogen comet would survive such a long trip."Hydrogen icebergs don't live that long in the galaxy.," he said. "And you definitely don't have time to get all the way from [the nearest] giant molecular cloud."
The theory only works if 'Oumuamua is just 40 million years old, he said. Over that time frame, outgassing could have molded the comet's oblong shape without destroying it entirely.
He pointed to a paper published in April in The Astronomical Journal, which proposed a number of nearby origin points for 'Oumuamua.
The paper's authors didn't nail down the comet's home entirely, which would be impossible, they said. 'Oumuamua was hardly moving when it arrived in our sun's gravity well, which makes tracking the comet through space tricky. But the researchers looked at what else passed through the Milky Way neighborhood that our sun is now passing through in recent cosmic history. They landed on two groups of young stars, the Carina and Columba moving groups, said Tim Hallatt, a graduate student and astrophysicist at McGill University in Montreal, and lead author of the paper published in April.
Related: 7 things most often mistaken for UFOs
They all formed around 30 million to 45 million years ago in a cloud of gas that then dispersed. That small, dissipated cloud of molecular gas, with just a few young stars, is one where hydrogen icebergs might form, Hallatt said
"There are many processes that can eject 'Oumuamua-type objects from young stars in moving groups — like gravitational nudges between stars in the group, planet formation, or as Seligman and Laughlin 2020 argue, the molecular clouds that create the stars in the first place," Hallatt told Live Science.
All three papers fit neatly together if you assume 'Oumuamua was a hydrogen iceberg that originated in Carina or Columba, Hallatt added.
"Seligman & Laughlin's idea could work here because H2 objects should have a short lifetime in the galaxy (as Loeb correctly concludes), and an origin in Carina or Columba would make it young enough to survive its journey," he said.
Loeb, however, disagrees.
"Shortening the distance that that H2 iceberg needs to travel does not solve the problems we outline in our paper, because the H2 iceberg would have formed when its parent planetary system formed, billions of years ago,” and in those eons, the iceberg would have evaporated, he told Live Science in an email.
Loeb also said that hydrogen icebergs are expected to come from giant molecular clouds, not parts of space like Carina or Columba. And he reiterated that no hydrogen iceberg could survive the trek from the nearest giant molecular cloud.
Asked if there is a clear leading candidate explanation for 'Oumuamua's acceleration, Loeb referred Live Science to a not-yet-released book he authored called "Extraterrestrial: The First Sign of Intelligent Life Beyond Earth," due for publication in January.
Originally published on Live Science.


livescience--2020-08-20--Watch SpaceX boat catch falling payload fairing in giant net (video)

just plucked another payload fairing out of the sky , and you can see video of the dramatic cosmic catch .
The net-equipped SpaceX boat GO Ms. Tree snagged half of a falling payload fairing Tuesday ( Aug. 18 ) , shortly after a two-stage Falcon 9 rocket into orbit .
Payload fairings are the shrouds that protect satellites during launch .
SpaceX fairings come in two pieces , both of which come back to Earth under parachutes in a guided fashion , thanks to small thrusters .
Such tech aids recovery and reuse of the fairings , which cost @ @ @ @ @ @ @ founder and CEO Elon Musk has said .
GO Ms. Tree and its sister ship , GO Ms. Chief , are part of this picture as well .
Seawater is extremely corrosive , so snatching fairing halves out of the sky makes refurbishment easier , Musk has said .
The ships have snagged a handful of fairings to date , including a during the launch of a South Korean military satellite last month .
( Ocean splashdowns do n't preclude reuse , however ; SpaceX has reflown fairings that it fished out of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ pulled one fairing half out of the Atlantic Ocean Tuesday .
But GO Ms. Tree caught the other one , a success captured by a camera-equipped drone .
Musk , scoring the 43-second video with some playfully incongruous lounge music .
This week 's launch featured reusability action on multiple fronts .
It was the sixth launch for this particular Falcon 9 first stage , for example , a milestone that SpaceX had never before achieved .
And more liftoffs are likely coming for the booster , which aced its landing on a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 's burgeoning constellation of internet satellites .
The company has launched nearly 600 Starlink craft to date , and many more will go up in the near future : SpaceX has permission to launch 12,000 such satellites and has applied for approval to loft up to 30,000 on top of that .
The three other satellites that went up Tuesday are SkySats .
They belong to San Francisco-based company , which operates the world 's largest constellation of Earth-observing spacecraft .
Mike Wall is the author of `` Out There '' ( Grand @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Karl Tate ) , a book about the search for alien life .
Follow him on Twitter @ michaeldwall .
Follow us on Twitter @ Spacedotcom or Facebook .

SpaceX just plucked another payload fairing out of the sky, and you can see video of the dramatic cosmic catch.
The net-equipped SpaceX boat GO Ms. Tree snagged half of a falling payload fairing Tuesday (Aug. 18), shortly after a two-stage Falcon 9 rocket launched 58 Starlink internet satellites and three Earth-observation spacecraft into orbit.
Payload fairings are the shrouds that protect satellites during launch. SpaceX fairings come in two pieces, both of which come back to Earth under parachutes in a guided fashion, thanks to small thrusters. Such tech aids recovery and reuse of the fairings, which cost about $6 million each, SpaceX founder and CEO Elon Musk has said.
Related: SpaceX's Starlink satellite megaconstellation launches in photos
Aloha, welcome back from space 💫 pic.twitter.com/xWPN09WtawAugust 18, 2020 See more
GO Ms. Tree and its sister ship, GO Ms. Chief, are part of this picture as well. Seawater is extremely corrosive, so snatching fairing halves out of the sky makes refurbishment easier, Musk has said. The ships have snagged a handful of fairings to date, including a double catch during the launch of a South Korean military satellite last month. (Ocean splashdowns don't preclude reuse, however; SpaceX has reflown fairings that it fished out of the water.)
GO Ms. Chief pulled one fairing half out of the Atlantic Ocean Tuesday. But GO Ms. Tree caught the other one, a success captured by a camera-equipped drone. Musk posted that footage on Twitter Tuesday , scoring the 43-second video with some playfully incongruous lounge music.
This week's launch featured reusability action on multiple fronts. It was the sixth launch for this particular Falcon 9 first stage, for example, a milestone that SpaceX had never before achieved. And more liftoffs are likely coming for the booster, which aced its landing on a ship at sea Tuesday.
The net-equipped SpaceX boat GO Ms. Tree catches a Falcon 9 payload fairing half on Aug. 18, 2020. (Image credit: Elon Musk via Twitter)
Starlink is SpaceX's burgeoning constellation of internet satellites. The company has launched nearly 600 Starlink craft to date, and many more will go up in the near future: SpaceX has permission to launch 12,000 such satellites and has applied for approval to loft up to 30,000 on top of that.
The three other satellites that went up Tuesday are SkySats. They belong to San Francisco-based company Planet , which operates the world's largest constellation of Earth-observing spacecraft.
Mike Wall is the author of "Out There" (Grand Central Publishing, 2018; illustrated by Karl Tate), a book about the search for alien life. Follow him on Twitter @michaeldwall. Follow us on Twitter @Spacedotcom or Facebook.